Science.gov

Sample records for earthquakes occur frequently

  1. How did the 1906 San Francisco earthquake occur?

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Thatcher, W.

    1976-01-01

    The 1906 earthquake in San Francisco was of magnitude 8.3 and was the most destructive in the history of the United States. Because this part of California is now much more heavily populated, intense studies have been made of the 1906 earthquake in an effort to understand how it occurred and, more importantly, what likelihood there is of future large earthquakes near San Francisco. Great emphasis has been put on geodetic data- ground surveys of the region have been made frequently since 1853 (see "The California geodimeter network: measuring movement along the San Andreas fault" by J.C Savage, Earthquake Information Bulletin, vol. 6 no. 3, May-June 1974).  

  2. Anaphora in Basal Reader Selections: How Frequently Do They Occur?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Baumann, James F.

    To determine how frequently various forms of anaphora appear in materials written for children, 1,000-word excerpts were analyzed from the second, fourth, and sixth grade texts of four basal reader series. The basal programs consisted of the "Ginn Reading Program," the "Houghton Mifflin Reading Program,""Scott, Foresman…

  3. Iron deficiency occurs frequently in children with cystic fibrosis.

    PubMed

    Uijterschout, Lieke; Nuijsink, Marianne; Hendriks, Daniëlle; Vos, Rimke; Brus, Frank

    2014-05-01

    In adult CF patients iron deficiency (ID) is common and primarily functional due to chronic inflammation. No recent data are available on the cause of ID and iron deficiency anemia (IDA) in children with CF. Over the last decades onset of inflammation and pulmonary disease in children with CF is delayed by improved nutritional status. We questioned whether ID occurs in the same extent among children with CF as in adult CF patients. We therefore conducted a study to investigate the iron status of children with CF and to determine whether ID and IDA are associated with dietary iron intake, lung disease severity and Pseudomonas aeruginosa (PA) infection. Clinical charts of 53 children with CF aged 0-16 were reviewed. Follow-up varied from 1 to 14 years with 343 annual observations in total. Thirty-two children (60.4%) were iron deficient in at least 1 year and ID was present in 84 of 343 observations (24.5%). In 2011 ID was present in 9 children (17.0%). Ten children (18.9%) were anemic in at least 1 year and anemia was present in 13 of 328 observations (4.0%). IDA was present in at least 1 year in 6 children (11.3%). Ferritin (Fer) was positively associated with age. Higher Fer values found in older children represent an increased state of inflammation, rather than an improved iron status, and might increase the relative contribution of functional ID. This study shows that ID is common in relatively healthy, well-nourished children with CF. The mechanism of ID in children with CF is currently unknown. A prospective study using both soluble transferrin receptor and Fer as indicators for ID will provide more insight in the incidence and causes of ID in children with CF.

  4. Frequent excitations of T waves by earthquakes in the South Mariana Arc

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Po-Fei; Chen, Kai-Xun; Cheng, Hui-Yun

    2015-02-01

    We used broadband stations in Taiwan and on the Ryukyu Arc islands to investigate T waves induced by earthquakes in the Izu-Bonin-Mariana subduction zone. Of the 48 earthquakes that took place in 2005, 17 earthquakes exhibited T-wave signals consistent with predicted arrival times at stations. Of theses T-excited events, 13 were located in the South Mariana Arc, where the isobaths exhibit strong concave curvature, and were predominantly of normal faulting type. The energies of observed T waves were used quantitatively to evaluate the relative efficiency of receiver-side acoustic-elastic conversions by Gamma calculations. Results show that the steep slopes of offshore bathymetry together with nearly perpendicular angles of back azimuth relative to local isobaths are suitable conditions for T waves observations. In 2010, two clusters of repeated moderate earthquakes in the north and south ends of the Mariana Arc displayed stark contrasts in terms of T-wave excitations despite their normal faulting type. Examining of this discrepancy indicate that a specific curvature together with a specific radiation pattern accounts for the frequent excitations of T waves from shallow earthquakes in the South Mariana Arc.

  5. Tsunami earthquake can occur elsewhere along the Japan Trench—Historical and geological evidence for the 1677 earthquake and tsunami

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yanagisawa, H.; Goto, K.; Sugawara, D.; Kanamaru, K.; Iwamoto, N.; Takamori, Y.

    2016-05-01

    Since the 11 March 2011 Tohoku earthquake, the mechanisms of large earthquakes along the Japan Trench have been intensely investigated. However, characteristics of tsunami earthquakes, which trigger unusually large tsunami, remain unknown. The earthquake of 4 November 1677 was a tsunami earthquake striking the southern part of the Japan Trench. Its source mechanism remains unclear. This study elucidates the fault slip and moment magnitude of the 1677 earthquake and tsunami based on integrated analyses of historical documents, tsunami deposits, and numerical simulation. Geological survey results, the analytical results of thickness and grain size distributions and diatoms, revealed that tsunami deposits in a small pond at 11 m elevation were probably formed by the 1677 event. This finding and historical descriptions are useful as important constraint conditions to estimate unusually large fault slips and moment magnitude of the 1677 earthquake. Numerical simulation results reveal that 8.34-8.63 moment magnitude with the large 11-16 m slip area is necessary to satisfy the constraint conditions. This fault slip and magnitude are equivalent to those of the 1896 Sanriku earthquake: a well-known tsunami earthquake in the northern part of the Japan Trench. We therefore conclude that a tsunami earthquake of moment magnitude 8.3-8.6 with unusually large slip can occur elsewhere along the Japan Trench. This point should be considered for future tsunami risk assessment along the Japan Trench and along any trench having similar tectonic settings to those of the Japan Trench.

  6. Earthquakes

    MedlinePlus

    An earthquake happens when two blocks of the earth suddenly slip past one another. Earthquakes strike suddenly, violently, and without warning at any time of the day or night. If an earthquake occurs in a populated area, it may cause ...

  7. Migraine-related vertigo and somatoform vertigo frequently occur in children and are often associated.

    PubMed

    Langhagen, Thyra; Schroeder, A Sebastian; Rettinger, Nicole; Borggraefe, Ingo; Jahn, Klaus

    2013-02-01

    Migraine-related syndromes are a common cause of episodic vertigo and dizziness in children. Somatoform vertigo (SV) is an important cause of chronic dizziness, especially in adolescents. Our aim was to elucidate the comorbidity of migraine and SV. Three diagnostic groups were defined: migraine-related vertigo (MRV), SV, and combined migraine-related and SV (MSV). A retrospective analysis was performed on patient data (demographics, diagnosis, neuro-orthoptic and neurologic status, and results of vestibular and balance testing) from 168 patients who were presented to the German Center for Vertigo and Balance Disorders (IFB) over a 2.5-year period. Mean age of patients was 12 ± 4 years (range: 1.4 to 18 years). The most frequent diagnosis was MRV (28%), followed by MSV (19%) and SV (14%). MSV occurred most frequently in adolescent girls (25%). MRV was the most common cause of dizziness in our cohort. MSV ranked second overall but ranked first in adolescent girls, followed by isolated SV. SV was most prevalent in adolescent girls. MRV, MSV, and SV account for about 60% of diagnoses established in our tertiary referral center. Competent care of childhood migraine should include skill in detecting both the clinical symptoms of vertigo and overlapping somatoform symptoms.

  8. Classification of magnitude 7 earthquakes which occurred after 1885 in Tokyo Metropolitan area

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ishibe, T.; Satake, K.; Shimazaki, K.; Nishiyama, A.

    2010-12-01

    Tokyo Metropolitan area is situated in tectonically complex region; both the Pacific (PAC) and Philippine Sea (PHS) plates are subducting from east and south, respectively, beneath the Kanto region. As a result, various types of earthquakes occur in this region; i.e., shallow crustal earthquakes, intraplate (slab) earthquakes within PHS, within PAC, and interplate earthquakes between continental plate and PHS, and between PHS and PAC. Among these, the largest earthquakes are Kanto earthquakes (M~8) occurring between the continental plate and PHS. The average recurrence interval is estimated to be 200 - 400 years (Earthq. Res. Comm., 2004), and hence, urgency of the next Kanto earthquake is thought to be low considering the lapse time (~87 yrs.) from the most recent Kanto earthquake in 1923. However, urgency of the other types of earthquakes with M~7 is high; Earthq. Res. Comm. (2004) calculated the probability of occurrence during the next 30 years as 70 %, based on the facts that five M~7 earthquakes (i.e., the 1894 Meiji-Tokyo, 1895 and 1921 Ibaraki-Ken-Nanbu, 1922 Uraga channel and 1987 Chiba-Ken Toho-Oki earthquakes) occurred since 1885. However, types of earthquakes are not well known especially for the 1894 Meiji-Tokyo and 1895 Ibaragi-Ken-Nanbu earthquakes due to low quality of data. Thus, it is important to classify these earthquakes into above-described intraplate or interplate earthquakes and to estimate their occurrence frequency. Ishibe et al. (2009a, 2009b) compiled previous studies and data for these five earthquakes. In this study, we report the preliminary result of focal depth and mechanism for the 1895 and 1921 Ibaraki-Ken-Nanbu earthquakes. The epicenter of the 1895 Ibaraki-Ken-Nanbu earthquake (M 7.2; Utsu, 1979) is discussed by various studies (e.g., Usami, 1973; Ishibashi, 1975; Katsumata, 1975; Utsu, 1979). However, few studies have discussed the hypocentral depth. The hypocentral depth is estimated to be 75 ~ 85 km using S-P time at Tokyo

  9. How frequently do allegations of scientific misconduct occur in ecology and evolution, and what happens afterwards?

    PubMed

    Moreno-Rueda, Gregorio

    2013-03-01

    Scientific misconduct obstructs the advance of knowledge in science. Its impact in some disciplines is still poorly known, as is the frequency in which it is detected. Here, I examine how frequently editors of ecology and evolution journals detect scientist misconduct. On average, editors managed 0.114 allegations of misconduct per year. Editors considered 6 of 14 allegations (42.9%) to be true, but only in 2 cases were the authors declared guilty, the remaining being dropped for lack of proof. The annual rate of allegations that were probably warranted was 0.053, although the rate of demonstrated misconduct was 0.018, while the rate of false or erroneous allegations was 0.024. Considering that several cases of misconduct are probably not reported, these findings suggest that editors detect less than one-third of all fraudulent papers.

  10. Lysine succinylation is a frequently occurring modification in prokaryotes and eukaryotes and extensively overlaps with acetylation.

    PubMed

    Weinert, Brian T; Schölz, Christian; Wagner, Sebastian A; Iesmantavicius, Vytautas; Su, Dan; Daniel, Jeremy A; Choudhary, Chunaram

    2013-08-29

    Recent studies have shown that lysines can be posttranslationally modified by various types of acylations. However, except for acetylation, very little is known about their scope and cellular distribution. We mapped thousands of succinylation sites in bacteria (E. coli), yeast (S. cerevisiae), human (HeLa) cells, and mouse liver tissue, demonstrating widespread succinylation in diverse organisms. A majority of succinylation sites in bacteria, yeast, and mouse liver were acetylated at the same position. Quantitative analysis of succinylation in yeast showed that succinylation was globally altered by growth conditions and mutations that affected succinyl-coenzyme A (succinyl-CoA) metabolism in the tricarboxylic acid cycle, indicating that succinylation levels are globally affected by succinyl-CoA concentration. We preferentially detected succinylation on abundant proteins, suggesting that succinylation occurs at a low level and that many succinylation sites remain unidentified. These data provide a systems-wide view of succinylation and its dynamic regulation and show its extensive overlap with acetylation.

  11. Source Mechanisms of Destructive Tsunamigenic Earthquakes occurred along the Major Subduction Zones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yolsal-Çevikbilen, Seda; Taymaz, Tuncay; Ulutaş, Ergin

    2016-04-01

    Subduction zones, where an oceanic plate is subducted down into the mantle by tectonic forces, are potential tsunami locations. Many big, destructive and tsunamigenic earthquakes (Mw > 7.5) and high amplitude tsunami waves are observed along the major subduction zones particularly near Indonesia, Japan, Kuril and Aleutan Islands, Gulf of Alaska, Southern America. Not all earthquakes are tsunamigenic; in order to generate a tsunami, the earthquake must occur under or near the ocean, be large, and create significant vertical movements of the seafloor. It is also known that tsunamigenic earthquakes release their energy over a couple of minutes, have long source time functions and slow-smooth ruptures. In this study, we performed point-source inversions by using teleseismic long-period P- and SH- and broad-band P-waveforms recorded by the Federation of Digital Seismograph Networks (FDSN) and the Global Digital Seismograph Network (GDSN) stations. We obtained source mechanism parameters and finite-fault slip distributions of recent destructive ten earthquakes (Mw ≥ 7.5) by comparing the shapes and amplitudes of long period P- and SH-waveforms, recorded in the distance range of 30° - 90°, with synthetic waveforms. We further obtained finite-fault rupture histories of those earthquakes to determine the faulting area (fault length and width), maximum displacement, rupture duration and stress drop. We applied a new back-projection method that uses teleseismic P-waveforms to integrate the direct P-phase with reflected phases from structural discontinuities near the source, and customized it to estimate the spatio-temporal distribution of the seismic energy release of earthquakes. Inversion results exhibit that recent tsunamigenic earthquakes show dominantly thrust faulting mechanisms with small amount of strike-slip components. Their focal depths are also relatively shallow (h < 40 km). As an example, the September 16, 2015 Illapel (Chile) earthquake (Mw: 8.3; h: 26 km

  12. Immunologic changes occurring at kindergarten entry predict respiratory illnesses after the Loma Prieta earthquake.

    PubMed

    Boyce, W T; Chesterman, E A; Martin, N; Folkman, S; Cohen, F; Wara, D

    1993-10-01

    Previous studies in adult populations have demonstrated alterations in immune function after psychologically stressful events, and pediatric research has shown significant associations between stress and various childhood morbidities. However, no previous work has examined stress-related immune changes in children and subsequent illness experience. Twenty children were enrolled in a study on immunologic changes after kindergarten entry and their prospective relationship to respiratory illness (RI) experience. Midway through a 12-week RI data collection period, the October 17, 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake occurred. The timing of this event created a natural experiment enabling us to study possible associations between immunologic changes at kindergarten entry, the intensity of earthquake-related stress for children and parents, and changes in RI incidence over the 6 weeks after the earthquake. Immunologic changes were measured using helper (CD4+)-suppressor (CD8+) cell ratios, lymphocyte responses to pokeweed mitogen, and type-specific antibody responses to Pneumovax, in blood sampled 1 week before and 1 week after school entry. RI incidence was assessed using home health diaries and telephone interviews completed every 2 weeks. RIs per child varied from none to six. Six children showed an increase in RI incidence after the earthquake; five experienced a decline. Changes in helper-suppressor cell ratios and pokeweed mitogen response predicted changes in RI incidence in the postearthquake period (r = .43, .46; p < .05). Children showing upregulation of immune parameters at school entry sustained a significant increase in RI incidence after the earthquake.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

  13. Earthquake Facts

    MedlinePlus

    ... the source of earthquakes. Moonquakes (“earthquakes” on the moon) do occur, but they happen less frequently and ... with the varying distance between the Earth and Moon. They also occur at great depth, about halfway ...

  14. Frequent surface rupturing earthquakes along the Carrizo section of the San Andreas Fault since A.D. 1250.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Akciz, S. O.; Grant Ludwig, L.; Arrowsmith, J.; Zielke, O.

    2008-12-01

    Paleoseismological investigations of the San Andreas Fault (SAF) in the Carrizo Plain have greatly influenced general models of fault behavior and our understanding of seismic hazard in southern California. Interpretations from seven new excavations across the SAF at the Bidart Fan site in the Carrizo Plain contradict the widely accepted hypothesis that this section of the fault ruptures relatively infrequently and only during large earthquakes with large (~8 m) offsets. Our new paleoseismic data indicate that the Carrizo section of the southern SAF has ruptured six times since ~A.D. 1250. The most recent earthquake, event A, was the 1857 Fort Tejon earthquake. The penultimate earthquake, event B, occurred sometime after A.D. 1620 and not sometime between A.D. 1405 and A.D. 1510, as previously thought. Four earthquakes, events C, D, E and F, occurred between A.D. 1250 and A.D. 1640. Our findings are similar to the new results from the Frazier Mountain site (worked conducted by Scharer and colleagues about 100 km southeast), which indicate 4-5 earthquakes since A.D. 1400. These new data from the northern section of the southern SAF indicate that since about A.D. 1250, the Carrizo section has failed more regularly and more often than previously thought. Additional paleoseismological investigations are needed to expand the record of the past earthquakes and determine the slip associated with each. This information will better constrain the past SAF rupture pattern-an essential element in the assessment of its future behavior.

  15. Seismogenesis of the lower crustal intraplate earthquakes occurring in Kachchh, Gujarat, India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mandal, Prantik; Pandey, O. P.

    2011-08-01

    Large intraplate continental earthquakes like the 1811-12 New Madrid (M w ⩾ 8.0) and the 2001 Bhuj (Mw7.7) were highly destructive because they occurred in strong crust, but the mechanisms underlying their seismogenesis are not understood. Here we show, using local earthquake velocity tomography, and joint inversion of receiver functions and surface wave group velocity dispersion that the crust and uppermost mantle beneath the 2001 Bhuj earthquake region of western India is far more complex than hitherto known through previous studies. A new image of the crust and underlying mantle lithosphere indicates the presence of a 18-km thick high velocity (Vp: 7.15-8.11 km/s) differentiated crustal and mantle magmatic layer above a hot and thin lithosphere (only 70 km) in the epicentral region of 2001 Bhuj earthquake. This magmatic layer begins at the depth of 24 km and continues down to 42 km depth. Below this region, brittle-ductile transition reaches as deep as the Moho (˜34 km) due to the possible presence of olivine rich mafic magma. Our 1-D velocity structure envisages an initial phase of plume activity (Deccan plume at 65 m.y. ago) resulting in basaltic magma in the eclogitic layers at sub-lithospheric levels, wherein they were subjected to crystallization under ultra-high pressure conditions. Our study also delineates an updoming of Moho (˜4-7 km) as well as asthenosphere (˜6-10 km) below the Kachchh rift zone relative to surrounding areas, suggesting the presence of a confined body of partial melts below the lithosphere-asthenosphere boundary. Restructuring of this warm and thin lithosphere may have been caused due to rifting (at 184 and 88 m.y. ago) and tholeiitic and alkalic volcanism related to the Deccan Traps K/T boundary event (at 65 m.y. ago). Recent study of isotopic ratios proposed that the alkalic basalts found in Kachchh are generated from a CO 2 rich lherzolite partial melts in the asthenosphere that ascended along deep lithospheric rift faults

  16. How the great 2011 Tohoku (Mw9.0) earthquake occurred? : An overview based on seismic observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hasegawa, A.

    2011-12-01

    In northeastern Japan, the Pacific plate subducts west-northwestward, beneath the North American plate at its northern to central parts and beneath the Philippine Sea plate at its southernmost portion, at a rate of 8-9 cm/yr along the Japan Trench. This subduction of the Pacific plate causes extremely high seismic activity mainly along the plate interface. Many large destructive earthquakes with magnitudes of about 7.5-8 have occurred repeatedly along the main thrust zone beneath the Pacific Ocean. Seismic waveform inversion studies have shown that large slip areas of the repeating large interplate earthquakes overlap each other, supporting the asperity model for the generation of earthquakes in this subduction zone (e.g., Yamanaka and Kikuchi, 2004). Long-term evaluation of earthquake occurrence made by the Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion of the Japanese government based on the records of large earthquakes for the last 100 years or so released a very high probability of occurrence of M7.5 class earthquake along the plate interface in the off Miyagi region. Seismic coupling coefficient at the plate boundary east of northern Tohoku estimated from the last ~70 years data is approximately 25 %, while that at the plate boundary east of southern Tohoku-Kanto is approximately 10 % or less (e.g., Kanamori, 1977; Seno, 1979; Peterson and Seno, 1984; Pacheco et al., 1993). However, both backslip inversions of GPS data (e.g., Suwa et al., 2006) and small repeating earthquake analyses (Uchida et al., 2011) based on data for the last 10 years or so show much higher interplate coupling coefficients of about 70-80 % for this subduction zone. It is along this plate boundary that the great 2011 Tohoku (Mw9.0) earthquake, the greatest earthquake in the modern history of Japan, occurred. The slip area of the earthquake extends about 500 km long and about 200 km wide with the average slip of about 10-20 m, rupturing about two thirds of the main thrust zone east of the

  17. K-ras activation occurs frequently in mucinous adenocarcinomas and rarely in other common epithelial tumors of the human ovary.

    PubMed Central

    Enomoto, T.; Weghorst, C. M.; Inoue, M.; Tanizawa, O.; Rice, J. M.

    1991-01-01

    To explore the role of mutational activation of members of the ras family of cellular protooncogenes in the development of human ovarian neoplasms, a series of 37 ovarian tumors from Japanese patients was studied. These included 30 common epithelial tumors (1 mucinous tumor of borderline malignancy, 7 mucinous adenocarcinomas, and 22 nonmucinous carcinomas: 10 serous, 3 clear cell, 8 endometrioid, and 1 undifferentiated), 5 tumors of germ cell origin, and 2 sex cord/stromal cell tumors. Polymerase chain reaction was performed from selected areas of deparaffinized sections of formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded tissue, and the presence of activating point mutations in codons 12, 13, and 61 of the H-, N-, and K-ras genes was probed by dot-blot hybridization analysis with mutation specific oligonucleotides. Mutations in K-ras were also looked for by direct genomic sequencing. The overall frequency of ras gene mutations was 10/37 (27%). Mutations were detected only in K-ras, and were found in most of the mucinous tumors, including the one such tumor of borderline malignancy (6/8; 75%). In one mucinous adenocarcinoma, two mutations were detected in paraffin-embedded material that had not previously been found in high molecular weight DNA isolated from frozen tissue from the same case. K-ras mutations occurred significantly more frequently in mucinous tumors (6/8, 75%) than in serous carcinomas (2/10, 20%; P = 0.031) or in all nonmucinous types of epithelial ovarian tumors combined (3/22, 14%; P = 0.0031). Images Figure 1 Figure 2 PMID:1656759

  18. Earthquakes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Shedlock, Kaye M.; Pakiser, Louis Charles

    1998-01-01

    One of the most frightening and destructive phenomena of nature is a severe earthquake and its terrible aftereffects. An earthquake is a sudden movement of the Earth, caused by the abrupt release of strain that has accumulated over a long time. For hundreds of millions of years, the forces of plate tectonics have shaped the Earth as the huge plates that form the Earth's surface slowly move over, under, and past each other. Sometimes the movement is gradual. At other times, the plates are locked together, unable to release the accumulating energy. When the accumulated energy grows strong enough, the plates break free. If the earthquake occurs in a populated area, it may cause many deaths and injuries and extensive property damage. Today we are challenging the assumption that earthquakes must present an uncontrollable and unpredictable hazard to life and property. Scientists have begun to estimate the locations and likelihoods of future damaging earthquakes. Sites of greatest hazard are being identified, and definite progress is being made in designing structures that will withstand the effects of earthquakes.

  19. Variations of the electromagnetic field that preceded the Peruvian M7.0 earthquake occurred on September 25, 2013

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cataldi, Daniele; Cataldi, Gabriele; Straser, Valentino

    2014-05-01

    Through this work we want to highlight the existence of strong electromagnetic emission in the ELF band that preceded the M7, 0 earthquake occurred in Peru on September 25, 2013 at 16:42:42 UTC. The electromagnetic activity data were provided by the monitoring station of Radio Emissions Project (Cecchina, Albano Laziale, Rome, Italy). The monitoring of electromagnetic field takes place 24H24, 7 days on 7, through a prototype of a ELF radio receiver (gain = 57dB) connected to a loop antenna with diameter of 1x1 meters (square section) and contains 25 turns. The antenna is oriented at 306° NW. The data on M7, 0 earthquakes were provided by USGS. The monitoring station has detected intense impulsive emissions starting from 13:55 UTC until, approximately, to 16:40 UTC. These emissions have a very high intensity and have shown just a few hours before the M7.0 earthquake. Seeing as have not been registered radio emission of this intensity for more than 24 before, we think that these signals can be associated with the Peruvian earthquake. Radio emissions with these characteristics have been recorded many times by the monitoring station of Radio Emissions Project, and in all cases have preceded of some hours the M6+ seismic events occurred on a global scale. Key words: Earthquake prediction, ELF, Seismic Electromagnetic Precursor (SEP), Seismic Geomagnetic Precursor (SGP), Geomagnetic emissions.

  20. Magnitude-based discrimination of man-made seismic events from naturally occurring earthquakes in Utah, USA

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Koper, Keith D.; Pechmann, James C.; Burlacu, Relu; Pankow, Kristine L.; Stein, Jared; Hale, J. Mark; Roberson, Paul; McCarter, Michael K.

    2016-10-01

    We investigate using the difference between local (ML) and coda/duration (MC) magnitude to discriminate man-made seismic events from naturally occurring tectonic earthquakes in and around Utah. For 6846 well-located earthquakes in the Utah region, we find that ML-MC is on average 0.44 magnitude units smaller for mining-induced seismicity (MIS) than for tectonic seismicity (TS). Our interpretation of this observation is that MIS occurs within near-surface low-velocity layers that act as a waveguide and preferentially increase coda duration relative to peak amplitude, while the vast majority of TS occurs beneath the near-surface waveguide. A second data set of 3723 confirmed or probable explosions in the Utah region also has significantly lower ML-MC values than TS, likely for the same reason as the MIS. These observations suggest that ML-MC is useful as a depth indicator and could discriminate small explosions and mining-induced earthquakes from deeper, naturally occurring earthquakes at local-to-regional distances.

  1. Long-Term RST Analysis of Anomalous TIR Sequences in Relation with Earthquakes Occurred in Greece in the Period 2004-2013

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eleftheriou, Alexander; Filizzola, Carolina; Genzano, Nicola; Lacava, Teodosio; Lisi, Mariano; Paciello, Rossana; Pergola, Nicola; Vallianatos, Filippos; Tramutoli, Valerio

    2016-01-01

    Real-time integration of multi-parametric observations is expected to accelerate the process toward improved, and operationally more effective, systems for time-Dependent Assessment of Seismic Hazard (t-DASH) and earthquake short-term (from days to weeks) forecast. However, a very preliminary step in this direction is the identification of those parameters (chemical, physical, biological, etc.) whose anomalous variations can be, to some extent, associated with the complex process of preparation for major earthquakes. In this paper one of these parameters (the Earth's emitted radiation in the Thermal InfraRed spectral region) is considered for its possible correlation with M ≥ 4 earthquakes occurred in Greece in between 2004 and 2013. The Robust Satellite Technique (RST) data analysis approach and Robust Estimator of TIR Anomalies (RETIRA) index were used to preliminarily define, and then to identify, significant sequences of TIR anomalies (SSTAs) in 10 years (2004-2013) of daily TIR images acquired by the Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager on board the Meteosat Second Generation satellite. Taking into account the physical models proposed for justifying the existence of a correlation among TIR anomalies and earthquake occurrences, specific validation rules (in line with the ones used by the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability—CSEP—Project) have been defined to drive a retrospective correlation analysis process. The analysis shows that more than 93 % of all identified SSTAs occur in the prefixed space-time window around ( M ≥ 4) earthquake's time and location of occurrence with a false positive rate smaller than 7 %. Molchan error diagram analysis shows that such a correlation is far to be achievable by chance notwithstanding the huge amount of missed events due to frequent space/time data gaps produced by the presence of clouds over the scene. Achieved results, and particularly the very low rate of false positives registered

  2. Long-term RST analysis of anomalous TIR sequences in relation with earthquakes occurred in Turkey in the period 2004-2015

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lisi, Mariano; Corrado, Angelo; Filizzola, Carolina; Genzano, Nicola; Paciello, Rossana; Pergola, Nicola; Tramutoli, Valerio

    2016-04-01

    Real-time integration of multi-parametric observations is expected to accelerate the process toward improved, and operationally more effective, systems for time-Dependent Assessment of Seismic Hazard (t-DASH) and earthquake short term (from days to weeks) forecast. However a very preliminary step in this direction is the identification of those parameters (chemical, physical, biological, etc.) whose anomalous variations can be, to some extent, associated to the complex process of preparation of major earthquakes. In this paper one of these parameter (the Earth's emitted radiation in the Thermal Infra-Red spectral region) is considered for its possible correlation with M≥4 earthquakes occurred in Turkey in between 2004 and 2015. The RST (Robust Satellite Technique) data analysis approach and RETIRA (Robust Estimator of TIR Anomalies) index were used to preliminarily define, and then to identify, Significant Sequences of TIR Anomalies (SSTAs) in 12 years (1 April 2004- 31 October 2015) of daily TIR images acquired by the Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager (SEVIRI) on board the Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) satellite. Taking into account physical models proposed for justifying the existence of a correlation among TIR anomalies and earthquakes occurrence, specific validation rules (in line with the ones used by the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability - CSEP - Project) have been defined to drive a retrospective correlation analysis process. The analysis shows that more than 67% of all identified SSTAs occur in the pre-fixed space-time window around the occurrence time and location of earthquakes (M≥4), with a false positive rate smaller than 33%. Moreover, to better qualify the possible contribution of the use of SSTAs in the framework of a multiparametric system for a t-DASH, a Molchan error diagram analysis was applied in order to verify the actual SSTAs added value in comparison with a random alarm function. Notwithstanding the

  3. Earthquakes

    MedlinePlus

    ... Thunderstorms & Lightning Tornadoes Tsunamis Volcanoes Wildfires Main Content Earthquakes Earthquakes are sudden rolling or shaking events caused ... at any time of the year. Before An Earthquake Look around places where you spend time. Identify ...

  4. Earthquakes.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Walter, Edward J.

    1977-01-01

    Presents an analysis of the causes of earthquakes. Topics discussed include (1) geological and seismological factors that determine the effect of a particular earthquake on a given structure; (2) description of some large earthquakes such as the San Francisco quake; and (3) prediction of earthquakes. (HM)

  5. Earthquakes.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pakiser, Louis C.

    One of a series of general interest publications on science topics, the booklet provides those interested in earthquakes with an introduction to the subject. Following a section presenting an historical look at the world's major earthquakes, the booklet discusses earthquake-prone geographic areas, the nature and workings of earthquakes, earthquake…

  6. Modeling ground deformation associated with the destructive earthquakes occurring on Mt. Etna's southeastern flank in 1984

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cannavò, Flavio; Gambino, Salvatore; Puglisi, Biagio; Velardita, Rosanna

    2016-11-01

    The Timpe Fault System is the source of very shallow but destructive earthquakes that affect several towns and villages on the eastern flank of Mt. Etna (Italy). In 1984, several seismic events, and specifically on 19 and 25 October, caused one fatality, 12 injuries and produced serious damage in the Zafferana and Acireale territories. This seismicity was mainly related to the activity of the Fiandaca Fault, one of the structures belonging to the Timpe Fault System. We inverted ground deformation data collected by a geodimeter trilateration network set up in 1977 at a low altitude along the eastern side of the volcano in order to define the Timpe Fault System faulting mechanisms linked to the seismicity in 1984. We have found that in the period May 1980-October 1984, the Fiandaca Fault was affected by a strike-slip and normal dip-slip of about 20.4 and 12.7 cm respectively. This result is kinematically consistent with field observations of the coseismic ground ruptures along the fault but it is notably large compared to displacements estimated by seismicity, then suggesting that most of the slip over the fault plane was aseismic. The results once again confirm how seismicity and its relation with ground ruptures and creep displacement represent a very high hazard to the several towns and villages situated along the Timpe Fault System.

  7. Rupture Pomess of Four Medium Size Earthquakes That Occurred in the Gulf of California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rodriguez-Lozoya, H. E.; Rebollar, C. J.; Quintanar, L.

    2005-12-01

    Four earthquakes with magnitudes of 5.3, 5.6, 6.1 and 6.2 located in the Gulf of California Extensional Province were studied to obtain their rupture process. A network of broadband seismic stations located around the Gulf of California recorded the events (NARS-Baja and RESBAN). Body waveform modeling and the inversion of the seismic moment tensor were used to obtain the fault geometry. From forward body waveform modeling and from the time-domain moment tensor inversion we obtained source depths in the range from 4 to 6 km. We used Yagi et al. (1999) inversion code to invert near-source broadband and strong-ground-motion waveforms to get the spatial slip distribution over the fault. We found that the source rupture process of the magnitude 5.3 and 5,6 have simple moment-rate functions and source time duration of 10 and 17 seconds respectively. Magnitude 5.3 event was a normal event and magnitude 5.6 was a right lateral strike-slip event. Magnitude 6.1 and 6.3 were right lateral strike-slip events with a complex rupture process with three sources of seismic moment release. Time duration of these events were 30 and 35 seconds respectively. Time duration of the moment-rate functions are large compared with similar magnitude events calculated elsewhere, we think that this is because we are inverting a large window of the seismogram that contain energy that it is not seen at regional distances or teleseismic distances.

  8. Earthquakes

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Roper, Paul J.; Roper, Jere Gerard

    1974-01-01

    Describes the causes and effects of earthquakes, defines the meaning of magnitude (measured on the Richter Magnitude Scale) and intensity (measured on a modified Mercalli Intensity Scale) and discusses earthquake prediction and control. (JR)

  9. Earthquakes

    MedlinePlus

    ... and Cleanup Workers Hurricanes PSAs ASL Videos: Hurricanes Landslides & Mudslides Lightning Lightning Safety Tips First Aid Recommendations ... Disasters & Severe Weather Earthquakes Extreme Heat Floods Hurricanes Landslides Tornadoes Tsunamis Volcanoes Wildfires Winter Weather Earthquakes Language: ...

  10. Source parameters of 2015 earthquake sequence occurred at the northwestern Romanian border

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Borleanu, Felix; Popa, Mihaela; Radulian, Mircea; Oros, Eugen

    2016-04-01

    Between 19 July and 05 August, 2015 a seismic sequence occurred at the border region between the northwestern part of Romania and Ukraine. The largest event of 3.8 ML occurred on 19 July at a depth of 4.6 km. The sequence is the most significant seismic activity instrumentally recorded in the northwestern part of Romania, a region generally characterized by low seismic activity.. The location results, obtained by JHD and HYPO-DD techniques, show a NE-SW alignment along the Faget Fault. The focal depth estimation reveals a variation in depth delimiting two fault segments: one above 4 km depth, the other below 6 km depth. The hypocenter clustering is attributed to a non-breakable structure existing between the two segments. The fault plane solutions obtained using the first P-wave polarities and waveform inversion are consistent and show a strike slip fault plane solution.

  11. The C228T mutation of TERT promoter frequently occurs in bladder cancer stem cells and contributes to tumorigenesis of bladder cancer

    PubMed Central

    Du, Ying; He, Luyun; Cai, Zhiming; Wang, Jiansong; Fan, Zusen

    2015-01-01

    Bladder cancer is one of the most common malignant tumors worldwide. Bladder cancer stem cells (BCSCs) have been isolated recently but have not been defined yet. Here we sorted BCSCs from bladder tumor tissues or normal bladder stem cells (NBBCs) from adjacent normal bladder tissues. We found that the C228T mutation (chr5, 1, 295, 228 C > T) of TERT promoter frequently occurs in BCSCs, but not exist in NBBCs. Importantly, introducing the C228T mutation in NBBCs causes TERT overexpression and transformation of bladder cancer. Restoration of the C228T mutation to T228C in BCSCs can recover the TERT expression to a basal level and abolish tumor formation. Additionally, the C228T mutation of TERT promoter triggers TERT expression leading to increased telomerase activity. TERT expression levels are consistent with clinical severity and prognosis of bladder cancer. PMID:26143634

  12. Earthquake!

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hernandez, Hildo

    2000-01-01

    Examines the types of damage experienced by California State University at Northridge during the 1994 earthquake and what lessons were learned in handling this emergency are discussed. The problem of loose asbestos is addressed. (GR)

  13. Solar wind proton density variations that preceded the M6+ earthquakes occurring on a global scale between 17 and 20 April 2014

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cataldi, Gabriele; Cataldi, Daniele; Straser, Valentino

    2015-04-01

    Between 17 and 20 April 2014 on Earth were recorded six M6+ earthquakes: Balleny Islands region M6,2 earthquake occurred on 17 April at 15:06 UTC; Solomon Islands M6,1 earthquake occurred on 18 April at 04:13 UTC; Mexico M7,2 earthquake occurred on 18 April at 14:27 UTC; Papua New Guinea M6,6 earthquake occurred on 19 April at 01:04 UTC; Papua New Guinea M7,5 earthquake occurred on 19 April at 13:28 UTC; Papua New Guinea M6,2 earthquake occurred on 20 April at 00:15 UTC. The authors analyzed the modulation of solar wind ion density during the period from 14 to 23 April 2014 to determine whether the six earthquakes were preceded by a variations of the solar wind ion density and for testing a method to be applied in the future also for the prediction of tsunami. The data on ion density used to realize the correlation study are represented by: solar wind ion density variation detected by ACE (Advanced Composition Explorer) Satellite, in orbit near the L1 Lagrange point, at 1.5 million of km from Earth, in direction of the Sun. The instrument used to perform the measurement of the solar wind ion density is the Electron, Proton, and Alpha Monitor (EPAM) instrument, equipped on the ACE Satellite. To conduct the study, the authors have taken in consideration the variation of the solar wind protons density that have these characteristics: differential proton flux 1060-1900 keV (p/cm^2-sec-ster-MeV); differential proton flux 761-1220 keV (p/cm^2-sec-ster-MeV); differential proton flux 310-580 keV (p/cm^2-sec-ster-MeV) and differential proton flux 115-195 keV (p/cm^2-sec-ster-MeV). This data set has been marked with the time data (time markers) of M6+ earthquakes occurred on a global scale between 17 and 20 April 2014 (the data on M6+ seismic activity are provided in real time by USGS, INGV and CSEM). The result of the analysis showed that the six M6+ earthquakes occurred on a global scale in the time period taken as a reference, were preceded by a significant variation of

  14. The reasons why the M9 earthquake in the northeastern Japan subduction zone could not be anticipated and why it really occurred

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Matsuzawa, T.; Iio, Y.

    2011-12-01

    The M9 Tohoku earthquake on 11 March 2011 had a great impact on the seismologists all over the world. This is because the northeastern Japan subduction zone was one of the most investigated subduction zones and the interplate coupling there was thought to be too weak to generate M9 earthquakes. The bases of the judgment of weak coupling are as follows: (1) The portion of the Pacific plate subducting beneath the subduction zone is older than 100 my, which is older than most of the other ocean floors in the world. Note that although some researchers have casted doubt on the relationship between the M9 potential and plate convergence rate and back-arc spreading proposed by Ruff and Kanamori (1980) after the 2004 M9 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake (e.g., McCaffrey, 2007, 2008; Stein and Okal, 2007), the dependency on the age of the oceanic plate had not been rejected. (2) Around 100 year geodetic survey shows dilatational areal strain is dominant in Tohoku (northeastern Honshu, Japan) (Hashimoto, 1990; Ishikawa and Hashimoto, 1999), indicating all the 'locked' areas on the plate boundary might be loosened by M7 earthquakes occurring with repeating intervals of several tens of years. (3) Although the analyses of GPS (e.g., Suwa et al., 2006) and small repeating earthquake data (Uchida and Matsuzawa, 2011) indicate a large 'locked' area off southern Tohoku, the data in the late 2000s show large portions of the locked area seemed to be released by large earthquakes of M6-7 and their afterslip. (4) The activity of moderate-sized earthquakes there is the highest in Japan. (5) Large interplate earthquakes with M6 or larger are usually followed by large afterslip whose scalar moment is sometimes as large as that of the seismic slip of the main shock. Moreover, Hasegawa et al. (2011) shows that the stress on the plate boundary was not large according to the stress rotation after the M9 earthquake. All of these observations indicate that the plate boundary was not strongly locked

  15. Earthquakes

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Information on this page will help you understand environmental dangers related to earthquakes, what you can do to prepare and recover. It will also help you recognize possible environmental hazards and learn what you can do to protect you and your family

  16. On the behavior of site effects in central Mexico (the Mexican volcanic belt - MVB), based on records of shallow earthquakes that occurred in the zone between 1998 and 2011

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Clemente-Chavez, A.; Zúñiga, F. R.; Lermo, J.; Figueroa-Soto, A.; Valdés, C.; Montiel, M.; Chavez, O.; Arroyo, M.

    2014-06-01

    The Mexican volcanic belt (MVB) is a seismogenic zone that transects the central part of Mexico with an east-west orientation. The seismic risk and hazard of this seismogenic zone has not been studied in detail due to the scarcity of instrumental data as well as because seismicity in the continental regime of central Mexico is not too frequent. However, it is known that there are precedents of large earthquakes (Mw > 6.0) that have taken place in this zone. The valley of Mexico City (VM) is the sole zone, within the MVB, that has been studied in detail. Studies have mainly focused on the ground amplification during large events such as the 1985 subduction earthquake that occurred off coast of Michoacán. The purpose of this article is to analyze the behavior of site effects in the MVB zone based on records of shallow earthquakes (data not reported before) that occurred in the zone between 1998 and 2011. We present a general overview of site effects in the MVB, a classification of the stations in order to reduce the uncertainty in the data when obtaining attenuation parameters in future works, as well as some comparisons between the information presented here and that presented in previous studies. A regional evaluation of site effects and Fourier acceleration spectrum (FAS) shape was estimated based on 80 records of 22 shallow earthquakes within the MVB zone. Data of 25 stations were analyzed. Site effects were estimated by using the horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratio (HVSR) methodology. The results show that seismic waves are less amplified in the northeast sites of the MVB with respect to the rest of the zone and that it is possible to classify two groups of stations: (1) stations with negligible site amplification (NSA) and (2) stations with significant site amplification (SSA). Most of the sites in the first group showed small (<3) amplifications while the second group showed amplifications ranging from 4 to 6.5 at frequencies of about 0.35, 0.75, 15 and 23

  17. Pre-seismic radio anomaly observed on the occasion of the MW=6.5 earthquake occurred in Crete on October 12, 2013

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maggipinto, Tommaso; Colella, Roberto; Biagi, Pier Francesco; Schiavulli, Luigi; Ligonzo, Teresa; Ermini, Anita; Martinelli, Giovanni; Palangio, Paolo; Moldovan, Iren A.; Silva, Hugo G.; Bezzeghoud, Mourad; Contadakis, Michael E.; Arabelos, Dimitrios N.; Scordilis, Emmanuel M.; Frantzis, Xenophon; Katzis, Konstantinos; Buyuksarac, Aydın; D'Amico, Sebastiano

    2014-05-01

    On October 12, 2013 an earthquake with Mw=6.5 occurred in the southern Hellenic Arc, about 20km off the west coast of Crete. The mainshock, whose focal depth is of the order of 40km, was followed by aftershocks felt in the nearby cities and villages, even though the aftershock sequence was rather poor. The epicenter is located at about 60 km from the CRE receiver of the European VLF/LF Radio Network. Some day before the earthquake a clear disturbance appeared in one of the ten radio signals sampled by the CRE receiver . The disturbance, considered as an anomaly, appears in the 216 kHz radio signal radiated by the transmitter MCO that is the main broadcasting facility for long and medium wave broadcasting of Radio Monte Carlo near Roumoules, France. The site is an exclave of Monaco and extraterritorial area. The signal radiated by MCO transmitter can be well received, mainly at night time, in whole Europe. The radio path MCO-CRE crosses exactly the epicenter area of the previous earthquake. Here we present a detailed study of the anomaly by means of statistical and spectral tools and analyze also the behavior of other sampled radio signals in the European network, and take into account other possible causes of disturbances. We conclude that the possibility that the disturbance in the MCO radio signal is a precursor of the earthquake is rather convincing.

  18. Unexpectedly frequent occurrence of very small repeating earthquakes (-5.1 ≤ Mw ≤ -3.6) in a South African gold mine: Implications for monitoring intraplate faults

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Naoi, Makoto; Nakatani, Masao; Igarashi, Toshihiro; Otsuki, Kenshiro; Yabe, Yasuo; Kgarume, Thabang; Murakami, Osamu; Masakale, Thabang; Ribeiro, Luiz; Ward, Anthony; Moriya, Hirokazu; Kawakata, Hironori; Nakao, Shigeru; Durrheim, Raymond; Ogasawara, Hiroshi

    2015-12-01

    We observed very small repeating earthquakes with -5.1 ≤ Mw ≤ -3.6 on a geological fault at 1 km depth in a gold mine in South Africa. Of the 851 acoustic emissions that occurred on the fault during the 2 month analysis period, 45% were identified as repeaters on the basis of waveform similarity and relative locations. They occurred steadily at the same location with similar magnitudes, analogous to repeaters at plate boundaries, suggesting that they are repeat ruptures of the same asperity loaded by the surrounding aseismic slip (background creep). Application of the Nadeau and Johnson (1998) empirical formula (NJ formula), which relates the amount of background creep and repeater activity and is well established for plate boundary faults, to the present case yielded an impossibly large estimate of the background creep. This means that the presently studied repeaters were produced more efficiently, for a given amount of background creep, than expected from the NJ formula. When combined with an independently estimated average stress drop of 16 MPa, which is not particularly high, it suggests that the small asperities of the presently studied repeaters had a high seismic coupling (almost unity), in contrast to one physical interpretation of the plate boundary repeaters. The productivity of such repeaters, per unit background creep, is expected to increase strongly as smaller repeaters are considered (∝ Mo -1/3 as opposed to Mo -1/6 of the NJ formula), which may be usable to estimate very slow creep that may occur on intraplate faults.

  19. Pre-seismic anomalous geomagnetic signature related to M8.3 earthquake occurred in Chile on September 16-th, 2015

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Armand Stanica, Dragos, ,, Dr.; Stanica, Dumitru, ,, Dr.; Vladimirescu, Nicoleta

    2016-04-01

    In this paper, we retrospectively analyzed the geomagnetic data collected, via internet (www.intermagnet.com), on the interval 01 July-30 September 2015 at the observatories Easter Island (IMP) and Pilar (PIL), placed in Chile and Argentina, respectively, to emphasize a possible relationship between the pre-seismic anomalous behavior of the normalized function Bzn and M8.3 earthquake, that occurred in Offshore Coquimbo (Chile) on September 16-th, 2015. The daily mean distributions of the normalized function Bzn=Bz/Bperp (where Bz is vertical component of the geomagnetic field; Bperp is geomagnetic component perpendicular to the geoelectrical strike) and its standard deviation (STDEV) are performed in the ULF frequency range 0.001Hz to 0.0083Hz by using the FFT band-pass filter analysis. It was demonstrated that in pre-seismic conditions the Bzn has a significant enhancement due to the crustal electrical conductivity changes, possibly associated with the earthquake-induced rupture-processes and high-pressure fluid flow through the faulting system developed inside the foci and its neighboring area. After analyzing the anomalous values of the normalized function Bzn obtained at Easter Island and Pilar observatories, the second one taken as reference, we used a statistical analysis, based on a standardized random variable equation, to identify on 1-2 September 2015 a pre-seismic signature related to the M8.3 earthquake. The lead time was 14 days before the M8.3 earthquake occurrence. The final conclusion is that the proposed geomagnetic methodology might be used to provide suitable information for the extreme earthquake hazard assessment.

  20. On the behavior of site effects in Central Mexico (the Mexican Volcanic Belt - MVB), based on records of shallow earthquakes that occurred in the zone between 1998 and 2011

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Clemente-Chavez, A.; Zúñiga, F. R.; Lermo, J.; Figueroa-Soto, A.; Valdés, C.; Montiel, M.; Chavez, O.; Arroyo, M.

    2013-11-01

    The Mexican Volcanic Belt (MVB) is a seismogenic zone that transects the central part of Mexico with an east-west orientation. The risk and hazard seismic of this seismogenic zone has not been studied at detail due to the scarcity of instrumental data as well as because seismicity in the continental regimen of Central Mexico is not too frequent, however, it is known that there are precedents of large earthquakes (Mw > 6.0) that have taken place in this zone. The Valley of Mexico City (VM) is the sole zone, within the MVB, which has been studied in detail; mainly focusing on the ground amplification during large events such as the 1985 subduction earthquake that occurred in Michoacan. The purpose of this article is to analyze the behavior of site effects in the MVB zone based on records of shallow earthquakes (data not reported before) that occurred in the zone between 1998 and 2011. We present a general overview of site effects on the MVB, a classification of the stations in order to reduce the uncertainty in the data to obtain attenuation parameters in future works, and some comparisons between the information presented here and that presented in previous studies. A regional evaluation of site effects and Fourier Acceleration Spectrum (FAS) shape was estimated based on 80 records of 22 shallow earthquakes within the MVB zone. Data of 25 stations were analyzed. Site effects were estimated by using the Horizontal-to-Vertical Spectral Ratio (HVSR) methodology. The results show that seismic waves are less amplified in the northeast sites of the MVB with respect to the rest of the zone and that it is possible to classify two groups of stations: (1) stations with Negligible Site Amplification (NSA) and (2) stations with Significant Site Amplification (SSA). Most of the sites in the first group showed small (< 3) amplifications while the second group showed amplifications ranging from 4 to 6.5 at frequencies of about 0.35, 0.75, 15 and 23 Hz. With these groups of

  1. Biased hypermutation occurred frequently in a gene inserted into the IC323 recombinant measles virus during its persistence in the brains of nude mice

    SciTech Connect

    Otani, Sanae; Ayata, Minoru; Takeuchi, Kaoru; Takeda, Makoto; Shintaku, Haruo; Ogura, Hisashi

    2014-08-15

    Measles virus (MV) is the causative agent of measles and its neurological complications, subacute sclerosing panencephalitis (SSPE) and measles inclusion body encephalitis (MIBE). Biased hypermutation in the M gene is a characteristic feature of SSPE and MIBE. To determine whether the M gene is the preferred target of hypermutation, an additional transcriptional unit containing a humanized Renilla reniformis green fluorescent protein (hrGFP) gene was introduced into the IC323 MV genome, and nude mice were inoculated intracerebrally with the virus. Biased hypermutation occurred in the M gene and also in the hrGFP gene when it was inserted between the leader and the N gene, but not between the H and L gene. These results indicate that biased hypermutation is usually found in a gene whose function is not essential for viral proliferation in the brain and that the location of a gene in the MV genome can affect its mutational frequency. - Highlights: • Wild-type MV can cause persistent infections in nude mice. • Biased hypermutation occurred in the M gene. • Biased hypermutation occurred in an inessential gene inserted between the leader and the N gene.

  2. TERT PROMOTER MUTATIONS OCCUR FREQUENTLY IN GLIOMAS AND A SUBSET OF TUMORS DERIVED FROM CELLS WITH LOW RATES OF SELF-RENEWAL

    PubMed Central

    Yan, Hai; Killela, P.J.; Reitman, Z.J.; Jiao, Y.; Bettegowda, C.; Agrawal, N.; Diaz, L.A.; Friedman, A.H.; Friedman, H.; Gallia, G.L.; Giovanella, B.C.; Grollman, A.P.; He, T.C.; He, Y.; Hruban, R.H.; Jallo, G.I.; Mandahl, N.; Meeker, A.K.; Mertens, F.; Netto, G.J.; Rasheed, B.A.; Riggins, G.J.; Rosenquist, T.A.; Schiffman, M.; Shih, IeM; Theodorescu, D.; Torbenson, M.S.; Velculescu, V.E.; Wang, T.L.; Wentzensen, N.; Wood, L.D.; Zhang, M.; Healy, P.; Yang, R.; Diplas, B.; Wang, Z.H.; Greer, P.; Zhu, H.S.; Wang, C.; Carpenter, A.; Herndon, J.E.; McLendon, R.E.; Kinzler, K.W.; Vogelstein, B.; Papadopoulos, N.; Bigner, D.D.

    2014-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Malignant cells must maintain their telomeres, but genetic mechanisms responsible for telomere maintenance in tumors have only recently been discovered. In particular, mutations of the telomere binding proteins alpha thalassemia/mental retardation syndrome X-linked (ATRX) or death-domain associated protein (DAXX) have been shown to underlie a telomere maintenance mechanism not involving telomerase (alternative lengthening of telomeres), and point mutations in the promoter of the telomerase reverse transcriptase (TERT) gene increase telomerase expression and have been shown to occur in melanomas. METHODS: To further define the tumor types in which TERT plays a role, we surveyed 1,230 tumors of 60 different types. We also analyzed the relationship between median overall survival (OS) of patients with IDH1/2 and TERT promoter mutations in a panel of 473 adult gliomas with the hypothesis that genetic signatures capable of distinguishing among several types of gliomas could be established providing clinically relevant information that can serve as an adjunct to histopathological diagnosis. RESULTS: We found that tumors could be divided into types with low and high frequencies of TERT promoter mutations. The nine TERT-high tumor types almost always originated in tissues with relatively low rates of self renewal, including melanomas, liposarcomas, hepatocellular carcinomas, urothelial carcinomas, squamous cell carcinomas of the tongue, medulloblastomas, and subtypes of gliomas. TERT and ATRX mutations were mutually exclusive, suggesting that these two genetic mechanisms confer equivalent selective growth advantages. We found that mutations in the TERT promoter occurred in 74.2% of glioblastomas (GBM), but occurred in a minority of Grade II-III astrocytomas (18.2%). In contrast, IDH1/2 mutations were observed in 78.4% of Grade II-III astrocytomas, but were uncommon in primary GBM. In oligodendrogliomas, TERT promoter and IDH1/2 mutations co-occurred in 79% of

  3. Altered expression of G1/S regulatory genes occurs early and frequently in lung carcinogenesis in transforming growth factor-beta1 heterozygous mice.

    PubMed

    Kang, Yang; Ozbun, Laurent L; Angdisen, Jerry; Moody, Terry W; Prentice, Margaret; Diwan, Bhalchandra A; Jakowlew, Sonia B

    2002-07-01

    We developed the AJBL6 transforming growth factor-beta 1 (TGF-beta1) heterozygous (HT) mouse by mating A/J mice with C57BL/6 TGF-beta1 HT mice that shows increased carcinogen-induced lung lesions with decreased latency to examine progressive events in lung tumorigenesis. Mouse cDNA macroarrays were used to identify cell cycle genes that are differentially regulated in ethyl carbamate-induced lung adenocarcinomas compared with normal lung tissue in AJBL6 TGF-beta1 HT mice using probes that were generated from tissues isolated using laser capture microdissection. While expression of the genes for cyclin D1, CDK4, and E2F1 increased in lung adenocarcinomas relative to normal lung, expression of p15(Ink4b), p16(Ink4a), p21(Cip1), p27(Kip1), p57(Kip2), and pRb genes decreased in comparison. Competitive RT-PCR showed that the levels of cyclin D1 and CDK4 mRNAs were 2- and 3-fold higher, respectively, in lung adenocarcinomas than in normal lung, while the mRNAs for p15(Ink4b), p16(Ink4a), p21(Cip1), p27(Kip1), and pRb were 3- to 4-fold lower in adenocarcinomas than in normal lung, thus validating the macroarray findings. Competitive RT-PCR of microdissected lesions also showed that the levels of cyclin D1 and CDK4 mRNAs increased significantly, while the mRNAs for p15(Ink4b) and p27(Kip1) decreased significantly as lung tumorigenesis progressed. Immunohistochemical staining for cyclin D1 and CDK4 showed staining in >80% of nuclei in adenocarcinomas compared with fewer than 20% of nuclei staining positively in normal lung. In contrast, while >60% of normal lung cells showed immunostaining for p15(Ink4b), p16(Ink4a), p21(Cip1), p27(Kip1), and pRb, staining for these proteins decreased in hyperplasias, adenomas, and adenocarcinomas. These data show that multiple components of the cyclin D1/CDK4/p16(Ink4a)/pRb signaling pathway are frequently altered early in lung lesions of AJBL6 TGF-beta1 HT mice that are induced by ethyl carbamate as a function of progressive lung

  4. Temporal and Spatial Evolution of Anisotropic Parameters before and after the Earthquake Occurred in the San Andreas Fault

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    SHI, Y.; Liu, L.; Gao, Y.

    2013-12-01

    world due to the 1906 San Francisco earthquake. The SWS research at the vicinity of the Parkfield of SAF show the orientations of fast shear-wave for stations on the main fault associated with the strike main fault. In addition, outside of the fault zone, the orientations of fast shear wave are preferentially oriented parallel to the orientation of regional principle compressive stress. In the study, based on the distribution of crustal anisotropy parameter by analyzing SWS from local earthquake data prior to and following the 28 September 2004 Parkfield M6.0 earthquakes as the priori information, arranging each isotropic media unit as a complex structure with the constraint of velocity structure and geometry of the faults, we construct a complex anisotropic model and simulate the characteristic of wave's propagation in this model. Finally, comparing the anisotropic characteristic of simulated seismic wave with the observed seismic wave, we get a more accurate and reasonable variety characteristics of anisotropic parameters, and then we will discuss the temporal and spatial evolution of anisotropic parameters before and after the before and after the big earthquake.

  5. Subionospheric VLF/LF radio waves propagation characteristics before, during and after the Sofia, Bulgaria Mw=5.6 earthquake occurred on 22 May 2012

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moldovan, Iren Adelina; Emilian Toader, Victorin; Nenovski, Petko; Biagi, Pier Francesco; Maggipinto, Tommaso; Septimiu Moldovan, Adrian; Ionescu, Constantin

    2013-04-01

    In 2009, INFREP, a network of VLF (20-60 kHz) and LF (150-300 kHz) radio receivers, was put into operation in Europe having as principal goal, the study of disturbances produced by the earthquakes on the propagation properties of these signals. On May 22nd, 2012 an earthquake with Mw=567 occurred in Bulgaria, near Sofia, inside the "sensitive" area of the INFREP VLF/LF electromagnetic network. The data collected on different frequencies, during April-May 2012 were studied using different methods of analysis: daily correlation methods, spectral approaches and terminator time techniques, in order to find out possible connections between the seismic activity and the subionospheric propagation properties of radio waves. The studies were performed with the help of a specially designed LabVIEW application, which accesses the VLF/LF receiver through internet. This program opens the receiver's web-page and automatically retrieves the list of data files to synchronize the user-side data with the receiver's data. Missing zipped files are also automatically downloaded. The application performs primary, statistical correlation and spectral analysis, appends daily files into monthly and annual files and performs 3D colour-coded maps with graphic representations of VLF and LF signals' intensities versus the minute-of-the-day and the day-of-the-month, facilitating a near real-time observation of VLF and LF electromagnetic waves' propagation. Another feature of the software is the correlation of the daily recorded files for the studied frequencies by overlaying the 24 hours radio activity and taking into account the sunrise and sunset. Data are individually processed (spectral power, correlations, differentiation, filtered using bandpass, lowpass, highpass). JTFA spectrograms (Cone-Shaped Distribution CSD, Gabor, Wavelet, short-time Fourier transform STFT, Wigner-Ville Distribution WVD, Choi-Williams Distribution CWD) are used, too.

  6. Interaction of the San Jacinto and San Andreas Fault Zones, Southern California: Triggered Earthquake Migration and Coupled Recurrence Intervals

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sanders, Christopher O.

    1993-05-01

    Two lines of evidence suggest that large earthquakes that occur on either the San Jacinto fault zone (SJFZ) or the San Andreas fault zone (SAFZ) may be triggered by large earthquakes that occur on the other. First, the great 1857 Fort Tejon earthquake in the SAFZ seems to have triggered a progressive sequence of earthquakes in the SJFZ. These earthquakes occurred at times and locations that are consistent with triggering by a strain pulse that propagated southeastward at a rate of 1.7 kilometers per year along the SJFZ after the 1857 earthquake. Second, the similarity in average recurrence intervals in the SJFZ (about 150 years) and in the Mojave segment of the SAFZ (132 years) suggests that large earthquakes in the northern SJFZ may stimulate the relatively frequent major earthquakes on the Mojave segment. Analysis of historic earthquake occurrence in the SJFZ suggests little likelihood of extended quiescence between earthquake sequences.

  7. Interaction of the san jacinto and san andreas fault zones, southern california: triggered earthquake migration and coupled recurrence intervals.

    PubMed

    Sanders, C O

    1993-05-14

    Two lines of evidence suggest that large earthquakes that occur on either the San Jacinto fault zone (SJFZ) or the San Andreas fault zone (SAFZ) may be triggered by large earthquakes that occur on the other. First, the great 1857 Fort Tejon earthquake in the SAFZ seems to have triggered a progressive sequence of earthquakes in the SJFZ. These earthquakes occurred at times and locations that are consistent with triggering by a strain pulse that propagated southeastward at a rate of 1.7 kilometers per year along the SJFZ after the 1857 earthquake. Second, the similarity in average recurrence intervals in the SJFZ (about 150 years) and in the Mojave segment of the SAFZ (132 years) suggests that large earthquakes in the northern SJFZ may stimulate the relatively frequent major earthquakes on the Mojave segment. Analysis of historic earthquake occurrence in the SJFZ suggests little likelihood of extended quiescence between earthquake sequences.

  8. Safety and survival in an earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    ,

    1969-01-01

    Many earth scientists in this country and abroad are focusing their studies on the search for means of predicting impending earthquakes, but, as yet, an accurate prediction of the time and place of such an event cannot be made. From past experience, however, one can assume that earthquakes will continue to harass mankind and that they will occur most frequently in the areas where they have been relatively common in the past. In the United States, earthquakes can be expected to occur most frequently in the western states, particularly in Alaska, California, Washington, Oregon, Nevada, Utah, and Montana. The danger, however, is not confined to any one part of the country; major earthquakes have occurred at widely scattered locations.

  9. Towards multiple hazard resilient bridges: a methodology for modeling frequent and infrequent time-varying loads Part II, Examples for live and earthquake load effects

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liang, Zach; Lee, George C.

    2012-09-01

    The current AASHTO load and resistance factor design (LRFD) guidelines are formulated based on bridge reliability, which interprets traditional design safety factors into more rigorously deduced factors based on the theory of probability. This is a major advancement in bridge design specifications. However, LRFD is only calibrated for dead and live loads. In cases when extreme loads are significant, they need to be individually assessed. Combining regular loads with extreme loads has been a major challenge, mainly because the extreme loads are time variable and cannot be directly combined with time invariant loads to formulate the probability of structural failure. To overcome these difficulties, this paper suggests a methodology of comprehensive reliability, by introducing the concept of partial failure probability to separate the loads so that each individual load combination under a certain condition can be approximated as time invariant. Based on these conditions, the extreme loads (also referred to as multiple hazard or MH loads) can be broken down into single effects. In this paper, a further breakdown of these conditional occurrence probabilities into pure conditions is discussed by using a live truck and earthquake loads on a bridge as an example.

  10. Self-similar rupture implied by scaling properties of volcanic earthquakes occurring during the 2004-2008 eruption of Mount St. Helens, Washington

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Harrington, Rebecca M.; Kwiatek, Grzegorz; Moran, Seth C.

    2015-01-01

    We analyze a group of 6073 low-frequency earthquakes recorded during a week-long temporary deployment of broadband seismometers at distances of less than 3 km from the crater at Mount St. Helens in September of 2006. We estimate the seismic moment (M0) and spectral corner frequency (f0) using a spectral ratio approach for events with a high signal-to-noise (SNR) ratio that have a cross-correlation coefficient of 0.8 or greater with at least five other events. A cluster analysis of cross-correlation values indicates that the group of 421 events meeting the SNR and cross-correlation criteria forms eight event families that exhibit largely self-similar scaling. We estimate the M0 and f0 values of the 421 events and calculate their static stress drop and scaled energy (ER/M0) values. The estimated values suggest self-similar scaling within families, as well as between five of eight families (i.e.,  and  constant). We speculate that differences in scaled energy values for the two families with variable scaling may result from a lack of resolution in the velocity model. The observation of self-similar scaling is the first of its kind for such a large group of low-frequency volcanic tectonic events occurring during a single active dome extrusion eruption.

  11. Self-similar rupture implied by scaling properties of volcanic earthquakes occurring during the 2004-2008 eruption of Mount St. Helens, Washington

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Harrington, Rebecca M.; Kwiatek, Grzegorz; Moran, Seth C.

    2015-07-01

    We analyze a group of 6073 low-frequency earthquakes recorded during a week-long temporary deployment of broadband seismometers at distances of less than 3 km from the crater at Mount St. Helens in September of 2006. We estimate the seismic moment (M0) and spectral corner frequency (f0) using a spectral ratio approach for events with a high signal-to-noise (SNR) ratio that have a cross-correlation coefficient of 0.8 or greater with at least five other events. A cluster analysis of cross-correlation values indicates that the group of 421 events meeting the SNR and cross-correlation criteria forms eight event families that exhibit largely self-similar scaling. We estimate the M0 and f0 values of the 421 events and calculate their static stress drop and scaled energy (ER/M0) values. The estimated values suggest self-similar scaling within families, as well as between five of eight families (i.e., M0∝f0-3 and ER/M0∝ constant). We speculate that differences in scaled energy values for the two families with variable scaling may result from a lack of resolution in the velocity model. The observation of self-similar scaling is the first of its kind for such a large group of low-frequency volcanic tectonic events occurring during a single active dome extrusion eruption.

  12. Source Functions and Path Effects from Earthquakes in the Farallon Transform Fault Region, Gulf of California, Mexico that Occurred on October 2013

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Castro, Raúl R.; Stock, Joann M.; Hauksson, Egill; Clayton, Robert W.

    2016-07-01

    We determined source spectral functions, Q and site effects using regional records of body waves from the October 19, 2013 (M w = 6.6) earthquake and eight aftershocks located 90 km east of Loreto, Baja California Sur, Mexico. We also analyzed records from a foreshock with magnitude 3.3 that occurred 47 days before the mainshock. The epicenters of this sequence are located in the south-central region of the Gulf of California (GoC) near and on the Farallon transform fault. This is one of the most active regions of the GoC, where most of the large earthquakes have strike-slip mechanisms. Based on the distribution of the aftershocks, the rupture propagated northwest with a rupture length of approximately 27 km. We calculated 3-component P- and S-wave spectra from ten events recorded by eleven stations of the Broadband Seismological Network of the GoC (RESBAN). These stations are located around the GoC and provide good azimuthal coverage (the average station gap is 39°). The spectral records were corrected for site effects, which were estimated calculating average spectral ratios between horizontal and vertical components (HVSR method). The site-corrected spectra were then inverted to determine the source functions and to estimate the attenuation quality factor Q. The values of Q resulting from the spectral inversion can be approximated by the relations Q_{P} = 48.1 ± 1.1 f^{0.88 ± 0.04} and Q_{S} = 135.4 ± 1.1 f^{0.58 ± 0.03} and are consistent with previous estimates reported by Vidales-Basurto et al. (Bull Seism Soc Am 104:2027-2042, 2014) for the south-central GoC. The stress drop estimates, obtained using the ω2 model, are below 1.7 MPa, with the highest stress drops determined for the mainshock and the aftershocks located in the ridge zone. We used the values of Q obtained to recalculate source and site effects with a different spectral inversion scheme. We found that sites with low S-wave amplification also tend to have low P-wave amplification, except

  13. Identification of Deep Earthquakes

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2010-09-01

    develop a ground truth dataset of earthquakes at both normal crustal depths and earthquakes from subduction zones , below the overlying crust. Many...deep earthquakes (depths between about 50 and 300 km). These deep earthquakes are known to occur in the Asia-India continental collision zone ...and/or NIL, as these stations are within a few hundred km of the zone where deep earthquakes are known to occur. To date we have selected about 300

  14. Connecting slow earthquakes to huge earthquakes.

    PubMed

    Obara, Kazushige; Kato, Aitaro

    2016-07-15

    Slow earthquakes are characterized by a wide spectrum of fault slip behaviors and seismic radiation patterns that differ from those of traditional earthquakes. However, slow earthquakes and huge megathrust earthquakes can have common slip mechanisms and are located in neighboring regions of the seismogenic zone. The frequent occurrence of slow earthquakes may help to reveal the physics underlying megathrust events as useful analogs. Slow earthquakes may function as stress meters because of their high sensitivity to stress changes in the seismogenic zone. Episodic stress transfer to megathrust source faults leads to an increased probability of triggering huge earthquakes if the adjacent locked region is critically loaded. Careful and precise monitoring of slow earthquakes may provide new information on the likelihood of impending huge earthquakes.

  15. Deep Earthquakes.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Frohlich, Cliff

    1989-01-01

    Summarizes research to find the nature of deep earthquakes occurring hundreds of kilometers down in the earth's mantle. Describes further research problems in this area. Presents several illustrations and four references. (YP)

  16. Dynamic Triggering of Earthquakes and Tremors in Taiwan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yeh, T. C.; Chen, K. H.; Liang, W. T.; Peng, Z.; Chao, K.

    2015-12-01

    Distant earthquake matters. Its long period, long lasted surface waves could bring transient stresses, later the local stress state, and trigger earthquakes and tremors at remote distances. There exists mounting evidences for the role of dynamic stress in slow/fast earthquakes triggering. Yet, little is understood about the similar/different processes for triggered earthquakes and tremors. What is the response of tremors and earthquakes to a remote earthquake? Are the triggered tremor and earthquakes co-located? Are the triggering controlled by the characteristics of distant earthquakeor local physical condition? With generation potential of non-volcanic tremors and frequent earthquake activity, Taiwan serves as a natural laboratory to explore the similarity and difference in triggering response of tremor and earthquakes. Using a collection of Mw ≥ 7.0 events from Sumatra constraint by similar azimuth, we seek to understand the general characteristics of tremors and earthquakes triggered by Sumatra events, furthermore, discuss the predominant factors of triggering in Taiwan. By examining all recordings of the 24 Sumatra Mw ≥ 7.0 earthquakes from 2000 to 2014 , we identified four triggered tremors and 12 triggered earthquakes that occurred during the surface wave passage. The Sumatra earthquakes that triggered tremors are characterized by thrust-type focal mechanisms with right-lateral component and minimum dynamic stress of ~3 kPa. The minimum dynamic stress measured for triggered earthquakes, however, is ~0.4 kPa, smaller than that of triggered tremor. The different location and stress triggering threshold for triggered tremors and earthquakes indicates different triggering mechanisms. Triggered tremors are confined in southern Central Range characterized by high attenuation, high thermal anomaly, the boundary between high and low resistivity, and localized veins on the surfaces distributed, suggesting the involvement of fluids from metamorphic dehydration

  17. Threat of an earthquake right under the capital in Japan

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Rikitake, T.

    1990-01-01

    Tokyo, Japan's capital, has been enjoying a seismically quiet period following the 1923 Kanto earthquake of magnitude 7.9 that killed more than 140,000 people. Such a quiet period seems likely to be a repetition of the 80-year quiescence after the great 1703 Genroku earthquake of magntidue 8.2 that occurred in an epicentral area adjacent to that of the 1923 Kanto earthquake. In 1784, seismic activity immediately under the capital area revived with occasional occurrence of magnitude 6 to 7 shocks. Earthquakes of this class tended to occur more frequently as time went on and they eventually culminated in the 1923 Kanto earthquake. As more than 60 years have passed since the Kanto earthquake, we may well expect another revival of activity immediately under the capital area. 

  18. Perspectives on earthquake hazards in the New Madrid seismic zone, Missouri

    SciTech Connect

    Thenhaus, P.C. )

    1990-01-01

    A sequence of three great earthquakes struck the Central United States during the winter of 1811-12 in the area of New Madrid, Missouri. They are considered to be the greatest earthquakes in the conterminous U.S. because they were felt and caused damage at far greater distances than any other earthquakes in US history. In contrast to California, where earthquakes are felt frequently, the damaging earthquakes that have occurred in the Eastern US are generally regarded as only historical phenomena. A fundamental problem in the Eastern US, therefore, is that the earthquake hazard is not generally considered today in land-use and civic planning. This article offers perspectives on the earthquake hazard of the New Madrid seismic zone through discussions of the geology of the Mississippi Embayment, the historical earthquakes that have occurred there, the earthquake risk, and the tools that geoscientists have to study the region. The so-called earthquake hazard is defined by the characterization of the physical attributes of the geological structures that cause earthquakes, the estimation of the recurrence times of the earthquakes, their potential size, and the expected ground motions. The term earthquake risk, on the other hand, refers to aspects of the expected damage to manmade structures and to lifelines as a result of the earthquake hazard.

  19. Significant earthquakes on the Enriquillo fault system, Hispaniola, 1500-2010: Implications for seismic hazard

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bakun, William H.; Flores, Claudia H.; ten Brink, Uri S.

    2012-01-01

    Historical records indicate frequent seismic activity along the north-east Caribbean plate boundary over the past 500 years, particularly on the island of Hispaniola. We use accounts of historical earthquakes to assign intensities and the intensity assignments for the 2010 Haiti earthquakes to derive an intensity attenuation relation for Hispaniola. The intensity assignments and the attenuation relation are used in a grid search to find source locations and magnitudes that best fit the intensity assignments. Here we describe a sequence of devastating earthquakes on the Enriquillo fault system in the eighteenth century. An intensity magnitude MI 6.6 earthquake in 1701 occurred near the location of the 2010 Haiti earthquake, and the accounts of the shaking in the 1701 earthquake are similar to those of the 2010 earthquake. A series of large earthquakes migrating from east to west started with the 18 October 1751 MI 7.4–7.5 earthquake, probably located near the eastern end of the fault in the Dominican Republic, followed by the 21 November 1751 MI 6.6 earthquake near Port-au-Prince, Haiti, and the 3 June 1770 MI 7.5 earthquake west of the 2010 earthquake rupture. The 2010 Haiti earthquake may mark the beginning of a new cycle of large earthquakes on the Enriquillo fault system after 240 years of seismic quiescence. The entire Enriquillo fault system appears to be seismically active; Haiti and the Dominican Republic should prepare for future devastating earthquakes.

  20. Earthquakes, November-December 1973

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Person, W.J.

    1974-01-01

    Other parts of the world suffered fatalities and significant damage from earthquakes. In Iran, an earthquake killed one person, injured many, and destroyed a number of homes. Earthquake fatalities also occurred in the Azores and in Algeria. 

  1. Improving the RST Approach for Earthquake Prone Areas Monitoring: Results of Correlation Analysis among Significant Sequences of TIR Anomalies and Earthquakes (M>4) occurred in Italy during 2004-2014

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tramutoli, V.; Coviello, I.; Filizzola, C.; Genzano, N.; Lisi, M.; Paciello, R.; Pergola, N.

    2015-12-01

    Looking toward the assessment of a multi-parametric system for dynamically updating seismic hazard estimates and earthquake short term (from days to weeks) forecast, a preliminary step is to identify those parameters (chemical, physical, biological, etc.) whose anomalous variations can be, to some extent, associated to the complex process of preparation of a big earthquake. Among the different parameters, the fluctuations of Earth's thermally emitted radiation, as measured by sensors on board of satellite system operating in the Thermal Infra-Red (TIR) spectral range, have been proposed since long time as potential earthquake precursors. Since 2001, a general approach called Robust Satellite Techniques (RST) has been used to discriminate anomalous thermal signals, possibly associated to seismic activity from normal fluctuations of Earth's thermal emission related to other causes (e.g. meteorological) independent on the earthquake occurrence. Thanks to its full exportability on different satellite packages, RST has been implemented on TIR images acquired by polar (e.g. NOAA-AVHRR, EOS-MODIS) and geostationary (e.g. MSG-SEVIRI, NOAA-GOES/W, GMS-5/VISSR) satellite sensors, in order to verify the presence (or absence) of TIR anomalies in presence (absence) of earthquakes (with M>4) in different seismogenic areas around the world (e.g. Italy, Turkey, Greece, California, Taiwan, etc.).In this paper, a refined RST (Robust Satellite Techniques) data analysis approach and RETIRA (Robust Estimator of TIR Anomalies) index were used to identify Significant Sequences of TIR Anomalies (SSTAs) during eleven years (from May 2004 to December 2014) of TIR satellite records, collected over Italy by the geostationary satellite sensor MSG-SEVIRI. On the basis of specific validation rules (mainly based on physical models and results obtained by applying RST approach to several earthquakes all around the world) the level of space-time correlation among SSTAs and earthquakes (with M≥4

  2. Winnetka deformation zone: Surface expression of coactive slip on a blind fault during the Northridge earthquake sequence, California. Evidence that coactive faulting occurred in the Canoga Park, Winnetka, and Northridge areas during the 17 January 1994, Northridge, California earthquake

    SciTech Connect

    Cruikshank, K.M.; Johnson, A.M.; Fleming, R.W.; Jones, R.L.

    1996-12-31

    Measurements of normalized length changes of streets over an area of 9 km{sup 2} in San Fernando Valley of Los Angeles, California, define a distinctive strain pattern that may well reflect blind faulting during the 1994 Northridge earthquake. Strain magnitudes are about 3 {times} 10{sup {minus}4}, locally 10{sup {minus}3}. They define a deformation zone trending diagonally from near Canoga Park in the southwest, through Winnetka, to near Northridge in the northeast. The deformation zone is about 4.5 km long and 1 km wide. The northwestern two-thirds of the zone is a belt of extension of streets, and the southeastern one-third is a belt of shortening of streets. On the northwest and southeast sides of the deformation zone the magnitude of the strains is too small to measure, less than 10{sup {minus}4}. Complete states of strain measured in the northeastern half of the deformation zone show that the directions of principal strains are parallel and normal to the walls of the zone, so the zone is not a strike-slip zone. The magnitudes of strains measured in the northeastern part of the Winnetka area were large enough to fracture concrete and soils, and the area of larger strains correlates with the area of greater damage to such roads and sidewalks. All parts of the pattern suggest a blind fault at depth, most likely a reverse fault dipping northwest but possibly a normal fault dipping southeast. The magnitudes of the strains in the Winnetka area are consistent with the strains produced at the ground surface by a blind fault plane extending to depth on the order of 2 km and a net slip on the order of 1 m, within a distance of about 100 to 500 m of the ground surface. The pattern of damage in the San Fernando Valley suggests a fault segment much longer than the 4.5 km defined by survey data in the Winnetka area. The blind fault segment may extend several kilometers in both directions beyond the Winnetka area. This study of the Winnetka area further supports

  3. Perspectives on earthquake hazards in the New Madrid seismic zone, Missouri

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Thenhaus, P.C.

    1990-01-01

    A sequence of three great earthquakes struck the Central United States during the winter of 1811-1812 in the area of New Madrid, Missouri. they are considered to be the greatest earthquakes in the conterminous U.S because they were felt and caused damage at far greater distances than any other earthquakes in U.S history. The large population currently living within the damage area of these earthquakes means that widespread destruction and loss of life is likely if the sequence were repeated. In contrast to California, where the earthquakes are felt frequently, the damaging earthquakes that have occurred in the Easter U.S-in 155 (Cape Ann, Mass.), 1811-12 (New Madrid, Mo.), 1886 (Charleston S.C) ,and 1897 (Giles County, Va.- are generally regarded as only historical phenomena (fig. 1). The social memory of these earthquakes no longer exists. A fundamental problem in the Eastern U.S, therefore, is that the earthquake hazard is not generally considered today in land-use and civic planning. This article offers perspectives on the earthquake hazard of the New Madrid seismic zone through discussions of the geology of the Mississippi Embayment, the historical earthquakes that have occurred there, the earthquake risk, and the "tools" that geoscientists have to study the region. The so-called earthquake hazard is defined  by the characterization of the physical attributes of the geological structures that cause earthquakes, the estimation of the recurrence times of the earthquakes, the estimation of the recurrence times of the earthquakes, their potential size, and the expected ground motions. the term "earthquake risk," on the other hand, refers to aspects of the expected damage to manmade strctures and to lifelines as a result of the earthquake hazard.  

  4. Mapping of earthquakes vulnerability area in Papua

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Muhammad Fawzy Ismullah, M.; Massinai, Muh. Altin

    2016-05-01

    Geohazard is a geological occurrence which may lead to a huge loss for human. A mitigation of these natural disasters is one important thing to be done properly in order to reduce the risks. One of the natural disasters that frequently occurs in the Papua Province is the earthquake. This study applies the principle of Geospatial and its application for mapping the earthquake-prone area in the Papua region. It uses earthquake data, which is recorded for 36 years (1973-2009), fault location map, and ground acceleration map of the area. The earthquakes and fault map are rearranged into an earthquake density map, as well as an earthquake depth density map and fault density map. The overlaid data of these three maps onto ground acceleration map are then (compiled) to obtain an earthquake unit map. Some districts area, such as Sarmi, Nabire, and Dogiyai, are identified by a high vulnerability index. In the other hand, Waropen, Puncak, Merauke, Asmat, Mappi, and Bouven Digoel area shows lower index. Finally, the vulnerability index in other places is detected as moderate.

  5. The size of earthquakes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kanamori, H.

    1980-01-01

    How we should measure the size of an earthquake has been historically a very important, as well as a very difficult, seismological problem. For example, figure 1 shows the loss of life caused by earthquakes in recent times and clearly demonstrates that 1976 was the worst year for earthquake casualties in the 20th century. However, the damage caused by an earthquake is due not only to its physical size but also to other factors such as where and when it occurs; thus, figure 1 is not necessarily an accurate measure of the "size" of earthquakes in 1976. the point is that the physical process underlying an earthquake is highly complex; we therefore cannot express every detail of an earthquake by a simple straightforward parameter. Indeed, it would be very convenient if we could find a single number that represents the overall physical size of an earthquake. This was in fact the concept behind the Richter magnitude scale introduced in 1935. 

  6. Tracking Earthquake Cascades

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jordan, T. H.

    2011-12-01

    In assessing their risk to society, earthquakes are best characterized as cascades that can propagate from the natural environment into the socio-economic (built) environment. Strong earthquakes rarely occur as isolated events; they usually cluster in foreshock-mainshock-aftershock sequences, seismic swarms, and extended sequences of large earthquakes that propagate along major fault systems. These cascades are regulated by stress-mediated interactions among faults driven by tectonic loading. Within these cascades, each large event can itself cause a chain reaction in which the primary effects of faulting and ground shaking induce secondary effects, including tsunami, landslides, liquefaction, and set off destructive processes within the built environment, such as fires and radiation leakage from nuclear plants. Recent earthquakes have demonstrated how the socio-economic effects of large earthquakes can reverberate for many years. To reduce earthquake risk and improve the resiliency of communities to earthquake damage, society depends on five geotechnologies for tracking earthquake cascades: long-term probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), short-term (operational) earthquake forecasting, earthquake early warning, tsunami warning, and the rapid production of post-event information for response and recovery (see figure). In this presentation, I describe how recent advances in earthquake system science are leading to improvements in this geotechnology pipeline. In particular, I will highlight the role of earthquake simulations in predicting strong ground motions and their secondary effects before and during earthquake cascades

  7. Upper-Plate Earthquake Swarms Remotely Triggered by the 2012 Mw-7.6 Nicoya Earthquake, Costa Rica

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Linkimer, L.; Arroyo, I. G.; Montero Pohly, W. K.; Rojas, W.

    2013-05-01

    Remotely triggered seismicity that takes place at distances greater than 1-2 fault lengths appears to be a frequent phenomenon after large earthquakes, including damaging upper-plate 5.0-to-6.0 magnitude earthquakes in Costa Rica after the large (Mw > 7.0) inter-plate earthquakes in 1983, 1990, and 1991. On September 5, 2012, an inter-plate 7.6-Mw earthquake struck the Nicoya Peninsula, triggering upper-plate seismicity in the interior of Costa Rica. In this study, we analyze the largest earthquake swarms that took place during the first five months after the Nicoya earthquake. These swarms occurred at distances of 200 to 300 km from the Nicoya source region in three different tectonic settings: the Calero Island near the Costa Rica-Nicaragua border in the backarc Caribbean region, the Cartago area in the central part of Costa Rica near the active volcanic arc, and the San Vito area in the Costa Rica-Panama border region, at the southern flank of the Talamanca Cordillera, an inactive portion of the magmatic arc. The Calero swarm with 64 2.0-to-4.2 Mw earthquakes took place from September 22 to October 9, 2012. The earthquake pattern suggests a smaller-scale fault as a possible source even though this swarm is located along the inland projection of the Hess Escarpment. The Cartago swarm with 284 2.0-to-3.7 Mw earthquakes occurred from September 5 to October 5, 2012. The location and left-lateral solution of the largest event focal mechanism suggest that the Aguacaliente fault, which caused the deadliest earthquake in Costa Rican history on May 4, 1910 (Ms 6.4), is the source of some of this triggered seismicity. The San Vito earthquake swarm with 30 2.0-to-4.5 Mw earthquakes occurred between December 9, 2012 and January 28, 2013. These earthquakes occurred in the vicinity of the San Vito and Agua Buena faults, which are located along the inland projection of the Panama Fracture Zone. Documenting remotely triggered earthquakes may provide us with insight into the

  8. Deep earthquakes

    SciTech Connect

    Frohlich, C.

    1989-01-01

    Earthquakes are often recorded at depths as great as 650 kilometers or more. These deep events mark regions where plates of the earth's surface are consumed in the mantle. But the earthquakes themselves present a conundrum: the high pressures and temperatures at such depths should keep rock from fracturing suddenly and generating a tremor. This paper reviews the research on this problem. Almost all deep earthquakes conform to the pattern described by Wadati, namely, they generally occur at the edge of a deep ocean and define an inclined zone extending from near the surface to a depth of 600 kilometers of more, known as the Wadati-Benioff zone. Several scenarios are described that were proposed to explain the fracturing and slipping of rocks at this depth.

  9. Earthquake history of Oklahoma

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    von Hake, C. A.

    1976-01-01

    The strongest and most widely felt earthquake in Oklahoma occured on April 9, 1952. The intensity VII (Modified Mercalli Scale) tremor was felt over 362,000 sqaure kilometres. A second intensity VII earthquake, felt over a very small area, occurred in October 1956. In addition, 15 other shocks, intensity V or VI, have originated within Oklahoma. 

  10. Earthquakes, March-April, 1993

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Person, Waverly J.

    1993-01-01

    Worldwide, only one major earthquake (7.0occurred during this reporting period. This earthquake, a magnitude 7.2 shock, struck the Santa Cruz Islands region in the South Pacific on March 6. Earthquake-related deaths occurred in the Fiji Islands, China, and Peru.

  11. Earthquakes, May-June 1984

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Person, W.J.

    1984-01-01

    No major earthquakes (7.0-7.9) occurred during this reporting period. earthquake-rated deaths were reported from Italy, the Dominican Republic, and Yugoslavia. A number of earthquakes occurred in the United States but none caused casualties or any significant damage. 

  12. Earthquakes, September-October 1978

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Person, W.J.

    1979-01-01

    The months of September and October were somewhat quiet seismically speaking. One major earthquake, magnitude (M) 7.7 occurred in Iran on September 16. In Germany, a magntidue 5.0 earthquake caused damage and considerable alarm to many people in parts of that country. In the United States, the largest earthquake occurred along the California-Nevada border region. 

  13. Dynamic triggering and earthquake swarms on East Pacific Rise transform faults

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cattania, Camilla; McGuire, Jeffrey J.; Collins, John A.

    2017-01-01

    While dynamic earthquake triggering has been reported in several continental settings, offshore observations are rare. Oceanic transform faults share properties with continental geothermal areas known for dynamic triggering: high geothermal gradients, high seismicity rates, and frequent swarms. We study dynamic triggering along the East Pacific Rise by analyzing 1 year of seismicity recorded by Ocean Bottom Seismographs. By comparing the response to teleseismic waves from global earthquakes, we find triggering to be most sensitive to changes in normal stress and to preferentially occur above 0.25 kPa. The clearest example of triggering occurs on the Quebrada and Gofar faults after the Mw8.0 Wenchuan earthquake. On Gofar, triggered seismicity occurs between the rupture areas of large earthquakes, within a zone characterized by aseismic slip, abundant microseismicity, frequent swarms, and low Vp. We infer that lithological properties inhibiting rupture propagation, such as high porosity and fluid content, also favor dynamic triggering.

  14. Toxic Peptides Occur Frequently in Pergid and Argid Sawfly Larvae

    PubMed Central

    Boevé, Jean-Luc; Rozenberg, Raoul; Shinohara, Akihiko; Schmidt, Stefan

    2014-01-01

    Toxic peptides containing D-amino acids are reported from the larvae of sawfly species. The compounds are suspected to constitute environmental contaminants, as they have killed livestock grazing in areas with congregations of such larvae, and related larval extracts are deleterious to ants. Previously, two octapeptides (both called lophyrotomin) and three heptapeptides (pergidin, 4-valinepergidin and dephosphorylated pergidin) were identified from three species in the family Pergidae and one in Argidae. Here, the hypothesis of widespread occurrence of these peptides among sawflies was tested by LC-MS analyses of single larvae from eight pergid and 28 argid species, plus nine outgroup species. At least two of the five peptides were detected in most sawfly species, whereas none in any outgroup taxon. Wherever peptides were detected, they were present in each examined specimen of the respective species. Some species show high peptide concentrations, reaching up to 0.6% fresh weight of 4-valinepergidin (1.75 mg/larva) in the pergid Pterygophorus nr turneri. All analyzed pergids in the subfamily Pterygophorinae contained pergidin and 4-valinepergidin, all argids in Arginae contained pergidin and one of the two lophyrotomins, whereas none of the peptides was detected in any Perginae pergid or Sterictiphorinae argid (except in Schizocerella pilicornis, which contained pergidin). Three of the four sawfly species that were previously known to contain toxins were reanalyzed here, resulting in several, often strong, quantitative and qualitative differences in the chemical profiles. The most probable ecological role of the peptides is defense against natural enemies; the poisoning of livestock is an epiphenomenon. PMID:25121515

  15. Maximum Earthquake Magnitude Assessments by Japanese Government Committees (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Satake, K.

    2013-12-01

    The 2011 Tohoku earthquake (M 9.0) was the largest earthquake in Japanese history and such a gigantic earthquake was not foreseen around Japan. After the 2011 disaster, various government committees in Japan have discussed and assessed the maximum credible earthquake size around Japan, but their values vary without definite consensus. I will review them with earthquakes along the Nankai Trough as an example. The Central Disaster Management Council, under Cabinet Office, set up a policy for the future tsunami disaster mitigation. The possible future tsunamis are classified into two levels: L1 and L2. The L2 tsunamis are the largest possible tsunamis with low frequency of occurrence, for which saving people's lives is the first priority with soft measures such as tsunami hazard maps, evacuation facilities or disaster education. The L1 tsunamis are expected to occur more frequently, typically once in a few decades, for which hard countermeasures such as breakwater must be prepared. The assessments of L1 and L2 events are left to local governments. The CDMC also assigned M 9.1 as the maximum size of earthquake along the Nankai trough, then computed the ground shaking and tsunami inundation for several scenario earthquakes. The estimated loss is about ten times the 2011 disaster, with maximum casualties of 320,000 and economic loss of 2 trillion dollars. The Headquarters of Earthquake Research Promotion, under MEXT, was set up after the 1995 Kobe earthquake and has made long-term forecast of large earthquakes and published national seismic hazard maps. The future probability of earthquake occurrence, for example in the next 30 years, was calculated from the past data of large earthquakes, on the basis of characteristic earthquake model. The HERP recently revised the long-term forecast of Naknai trough earthquake; while the 30 year probability (60 - 70 %) is similar to the previous estimate, they noted the size can be M 8 to 9, considering the variability of past

  16. Earthquakes; January-March 1976

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Person, W.J.

    1976-01-01

    The year 1976 started out quite active, seismically. Four major earthquakes occurred in different parts of the world during the first 3 months of the year. Three earthquakes rattled the western rim of the Pacific Ocean from the Kuril Islands to the Kermadec Islands. The fourth major earthquake struck Guatemala, killing thousands of people, injuring many, and leaving thousands homeless. Earthquakes in Kentucky and Arkansas caused little damage but were felt in several States. Arizona experienced a sharp earthquake in the Chico Valley, which caused very little damage. Other States experienced earthquakes, but none caused damage. 

  17. Earthquakes and Schools

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    National Clearinghouse for Educational Facilities, 2008

    2008-01-01

    Earthquakes are low-probability, high-consequence events. Though they may occur only once in the life of a school, they can have devastating, irreversible consequences. Moderate earthquakes can cause serious damage to building contents and non-structural building systems, serious injury to students and staff, and disruption of building operations.…

  18. Disaster triggers disaster: Earthquake triggering by tropical cyclones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wdowinski, S.; Tsukanov, I.

    2011-12-01

    Three recent devastating earthquakes, the 1999 M=7.6 Chi-Chi (Taiwan), 2010 M=7.0 Leogane (Haiti), 2010 M=6.4 Kaohsiung (Taiwan), and additional three moderate size earthquakes (6occurred in tropical mountainous areas shortly after very wet tropical cyclones (hurricane or typhoon) hit the very same area. The most familiar example is Haiti, which was hit during the late summer of 2008 by two hurricanes and two tropical storms (Fay, Gustav, Hanna and Ike) within 25 days. A year an a half after this very wet hurricane season, the 2010 Leogane earthquake occurred in the mountainous Haiti's southern peninsula and caused the death of more than 300,000 people. The other cases are from Taiwan, which is characterized by a high seismicity level and frequent typhoon landfall. The three wettest typhoons in Taiwan's past 50 years were Morakot (in 2009, with 2885 mm or rain), Flossie (1969, 2162 mm) and Herb (1996, 1987 mm)[Lin et al., 2010]. Each of this three very wet storms was followed by one or two main-shock M>6 earthquake that occurred in the central mountainous area of Taiwan within three years after the typhoon. The 2009 Morakot typhoon was followed by 2009 M=6.2 Nantou and 2010 M=6.4 Kaohsiung earthquakes; the 1969 Flossie typhoon was followed by an M=6.3 earthquake in 1972; and the 1996 Herb typhoon by the 1998 M=6.2 Rueyli and 1999 M=7.6 Chi-Chi earthquakes. The earthquake catalog of Taiwan lists only two other M>6 main-shocks that occurred in Taiwan's central mountainous belt, one of them was in 1964 only four months after the wet Typhoon Gloria poured heavy rain in the same area. We suggest that the close proximity in time and space between wet tropical cyclones and earthquakes reflects a physical link between the two hazard types in which these earthquakes were triggered by rapid erosion induced by tropical cyclone's heavy rain. Based on remote sensing observations, meshfree finite element modeling, and Coulomb failure stress analysis, we show that the

  19. Earthquakes, March-April 1991

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Person, W.J.

    1992-01-01

    Two major earthquakes (7.0-7.9) occurred during this reporting period: a magnitude 7.6 in Costa Rica on April 22 and a magntidue 7.0 in the USSR on April 29. Destructive earthquakes hit northern Peru on April 4 and 5. There were no destructive earthquakes in the United States during this period. 

  20. Earthquakes; January-February 1977

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Person, W.J.

    1977-01-01

    There were no major earthquakes (7.0-7.9) during the first 2 months of the year, and no fatalities were reported. Three strong earthquakes occurred- New Guinea, Tadzhik S.S.R, and the Aleutian Islands. The Tadzhik earthquake on January 31 caused considerable damage and possible injuries. The United States experienced a number of earthquakes, but only very minor damage was reported. 

  1. Earthquake activity in Oklahoma

    SciTech Connect

    Luza, K.V.; Lawson, J.E. Jr. )

    1989-08-01

    Oklahoma is one of the most seismically active areas in the southern Mid-Continent. From 1897 to 1988, over 700 earthquakes are known to have occurred in Oklahoma. The earliest documented Oklahoma earthquake took place on December 2, 1897, near Jefferson, in Grant County. The largest known Oklahoma earthquake happened near El Reno on April 9, 1952. This magnitude 5.5 (mb) earthquake was felt from Austin, Texas, to Des Moines, Iowa, and covered a felt area of approximately 362,000 km{sup 2}. Prior to 1962, all earthquakes in Oklahoma (59) were either known from historical accounts or from seismograph stations outside the state. Over half of these events were located in Canadian County. In late 1961, the first seismographs were installed in Oklahoma. From 1962 through 1976, 70 additional earthquakes were added to the earthquake database. In 1977, a statewide network of seven semipermanent and three radio-telemetry seismograph stations were installed. The additional stations have improved earthquake detection and location in the state of Oklahoma. From 1977 to 1988, over 570 additional earthquakes were located in Oklahoma, mostly of magnitudes less than 2.5. Most of these events occurred on the eastern margin of the Anadarko basin along a zone 135 km long by 40 km wide that extends from Canadian County to the southern edge of Garvin County. Another general area of earthquake activity lies along and north of the Ouachita Mountains in the Arkoma basin. A few earthquakes have occurred in the shelves that border the Arkoma and Anadarko basins.

  2. Earthquake swarms on Mount Erebus, Antarctica

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kaminuma, Katsutada; Baba, Megumi; Ueki, Sadato

    1986-12-01

    Mount Erebus (3794 m), located on Ross Island in McMurdo Sound, is one of the few active volcanoes in Antartica. A high-sensitivity seismic network has been operated by Japanese and US parties on and around the Volcano since December, 1980. The results of these observations show two kinds of seismic activity on Ross Island: activity concentrated near the summit of Mount Erebus associated with Strombolian eruptions, and micro-earthquake activity spread through Mount Erebus and the surrounding area. Seismicity on Mount Erebus has been quite high, usually exceeding 20 volcanic earthquakes per day. They frequently occur in swarms with daily counts exceeding 100 events. Sixteen earthquake swarms with more than 250 events per day were recorded by the seismic network during the three year period 1982-1984, and three notable earthquake swarms out of the sixteen were recognized, in October, 1982 (named 82-C), March-April, 1984 (84-B) and July, 1984 (84-F). Swarms 84-B and 84-F have a large total number of earthquakes and large Ishimoto-Iida's "m"; hence these two swarms are presumed to constitute on one of the precursor phenomena to the new eruption, which took place on 13 September, 1984, and lasted a few months.

  3. The Distribution of Great Earthquakes in Time

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shirley, J. H.

    2007-12-01

    An updated catalog of instrumentally recorded great shallow earthquakes has been assembled from standard sources. This compilation is based on the catalog of Pacheco & Sykes (BSSA 82, 1306, 1989) for the years 1900-1975, and on the Harvard CMT catalog for the years 1976-present. The updated catalog includes 78 great earthquakes with seismic moment >=10e21 Nm (moment magnitude Mw>=7.93). Annual and decadal totals of event frequency and seismic moment for earthquakes with Ms>= 7.0 have also been compiled to provide context and allow comparisons. We are at present experiencing a remarkable surge of great earthquake activity. Nine great shallow earthquakes have occurred within the past 4 yr, a rate that is unprecedented in the catalog of instrumentally recorded events since 1900. In terms of worldwide seismic moment and energy release, the current "burst" of great earthquakes is the third largest in the record. This is an expected result, as the giant earthquakes of 1960 and 1964 each dominate burst episodes similar to the present one, and both of these earthquakes were larger than the Mw=9 Northern Sumatra event of 2004. We find that great earthquakes contribute 84% of the total moment for the period Jan 1900-Aug 2007, which is also an expected result. However, great earthquakes did not dominate total seismic moment and energy release for the decades of the 1980s and 1990s, when great events were less frequent; the percentages for these decades were 37% and 40% respectively. The updated catalog reveals a strong tendency for clustering of great earthquakes in time. This has been remarked upon by many investigators and has led to suggestions that the largest earthquakes may somehow be coupled on a planetary scale. To examine this tendency, we employ a simple descriptive method to discriminate between burst intervals and periods of quiescence (or "gaps"). Gaps are: 1) intervals of >3 yr that include no more than 1 great earthquake, or 2) intervals of >2 yr with 0 great

  4. Earthquakes: Risk, Monitoring, Notification, and Research

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2008-06-19

    far away as Bangladesh , Taiwan, Thailand, and Vietnam. Several large aftershocks have occurred since the main seismic event. The May 12 earthquake...motion of tectonic plates; ! Earthquake geology and paleoseismology: studies of the history, effects, and mechanics of earthquakes; ! Earthquake hazards

  5. The recurrence interval of great earthquakes along the Sagami trough

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ando, M.

    2003-12-01

    Along the Sagami trough, an oblique subuduction zone between the Philippine Sea and North American plates, great earthquakes occurred in 1923 (M7.9) and1703 (M8.6), about 50 km southwest of the Tokyo. Both events generated strong ground motions and tsunamis. Strong ground motions equivalent to seismic intensities 6 to 7 in JMA scale and 10 to 12 in MM scale struck over southern Kanto. The two earthquakes are similar more or less in the extent of the damage and the crustal deformation, possibly occurring very near each other. The extent of the damage and the crustal deformation on the southern area was greater in the 1703 event, whose tsunami reached and damaged the coast of the Kii peninsula, 300 to 400 km away from the source. The source region of the 1703 earthquake, therefore, is considered to have extended towards the ocean and much larger than that of the 1923 event. Several studies of uplift coastal terraces suggest the events like the 1703 one have occurred possibly every 1,000-2,000 years, while those like the 1923 Kanto earthquake more frequently without leaving geomorphic evidence on the terraces. Before 1703, a possible candidate for a subduction event is the M7.0-7.5 1257 or M7.0 1293 earthquake that caused serious damage to southern Kanto region. However, no other earthquakes have been found in historical documents. Historically, the Kanto area was not well civilized until 13th century and earthquakes are not well documented. In addition most historical documents recorded between 14th and 16th centuries were lost during the age of civil wars. If an average recurrence interval is 200 years, at least 4 to 5 events should have occurred before 1703,since the 9th century when the first earthquake was reported in this area. The incomplete earthquake history may contain at least two recurrence intervals, 200 and 400 years. However, the 400 year interval can be shortened by inserting additional earthquakes. For the purposes of hazard mitigation and study of

  6. Large earthquakes create vertical permeability by breaching aquitards

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Chi-Yuen; Liao, Xin; Wang, Lee-Ping; Wang, Chung-Ho; Manga, Michael

    2016-08-01

    Hydrologic responses to earthquakes and their mechanisms have been widely studied. Some responses have been attributed to increases in the vertical permeability. However, basic questions remain: How do increases in the vertical permeability occur? How frequently do they occur? Is there a quantitative measure for detecting the occurrence of aquitard breaching? We try to answer these questions by examining data from a dense network of ˜50 monitoring stations of clustered wells in a sedimentary basin near the epicenter of the 1999 M7.6 Chi-Chi earthquake in western Taiwan. While most stations show evidence that confined aquifers remained confined after the earthquake, about 10% of the stations show evidence of coseismic breaching of aquitards, creating vertical permeability as high as that of aquifers. The water levels in wells without evidence of coseismic breaching of aquitards show tidal responses similar to that of a confined aquifer before and after the earthquake. Those wells with evidence of coseismic breaching of aquitards, on the other hand, show distinctly different postseismic tidal response. Furthermore, the postseismic tidal response of different aquifers became strikingly similar, suggesting that the aquifers became hydraulically connected and the connection was maintained many months thereafter. Breaching of aquitards by large earthquakes has significant implications for a number of societal issues such as the safety of water resources, the security of underground waste repositories, and the production of oil and gas. The method demonstrated here may be used for detecting the occurrence of aquitard breaching by large earthquakes in other seismically active areas.

  7. Defeating Earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stein, R. S.

    2012-12-01

    The 2004 M=9.2 Sumatra earthquake claimed what seemed an unfathomable 228,000 lives, although because of its size, we could at least assure ourselves that it was an extremely rare event. But in the short space of 8 years, the Sumatra quake no longer looks like an anomaly, and it is no longer even the worst disaster of the Century: 80,000 deaths in the 2005 M=7.6 Pakistan quake; 88,000 deaths in the 2008 M=7.9 Wenchuan, China quake; 316,000 deaths in the M=7.0 Haiti, quake. In each case, poor design and construction were unable to withstand the ferocity of the shaken earth. And this was compounded by inadequate rescue, medical care, and shelter. How could the toll continue to mount despite the advances in our understanding of quake risk? The world's population is flowing into megacities, and many of these migration magnets lie astride the plate boundaries. Caught between these opposing demographic and seismic forces are 50 cities of at least 3 million people threatened by large earthquakes, the targets of chance. What we know for certain is that no one will take protective measures unless they are convinced they are at risk. Furnishing that knowledge is the animating principle of the Global Earthquake Model, launched in 2009. At the very least, everyone should be able to learn what his or her risk is. At the very least, our community owes the world an estimate of that risk. So, first and foremost, GEM seeks to raise quake risk awareness. We have no illusions that maps or models raise awareness; instead, earthquakes do. But when a quake strikes, people need a credible place to go to answer the question, how vulnerable am I, and what can I do about it? The Global Earthquake Model is being built with GEM's new open source engine, OpenQuake. GEM is also assembling the global data sets without which we will never improve our understanding of where, how large, and how frequently earthquakes will strike, what impacts they will have, and how those impacts can be lessened by

  8. WGCEP Historical California Earthquake Catalog

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Felzer, Karen R.; Cao, Tianqing

    2008-01-01

    This appendix provides an earthquake catalog for California and the surrounding area. Our goal is to provide a listing for all known M > 5.5 earthquakes that occurred from 1850-1932 and all known M > 4.0 earthquakes that occurred from 1932-2006 within the region of 31.0 to 43.0 degrees North and -126.0 to -114.0 degrees West. Some pre-1932 earthquakes 4 5, before the Northern California network was online. Some earthquakes from 1900-1932, and particularly from 1910-1932 are also based on instrumental readings, but the quality of the instrumental record and the resulting analysis are much less precise than for later listings. A partial exception is for some of the largest earthquakes, such as the San Francisco earthquake of April 18, 1906, for which global teleseismic records (Wald et al. 1993) and geodetic measurements (Thatcher et al. 1906) have been used to help determine magnitudes.

  9. EPA Subaward Frequent Questions

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    These answers to frequent questions (FQ) are intended to provide information to recipients of EPA financial assistance to help them understand EPA’s interpretations of the Uniform Grant Guidance (UGG) and EPA’s Subaward Policy.

  10. Earthquakes, November-December 1992

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Person, W.J.

    1993-01-01

    There were two major earthquakes (7.0≤M<8.0) during the last two months of the year, a magntidue 7.5 earthquake on December 12 in the Flores region, Indonesia, and a magnitude 7.0 earthquake on December 20 in the Banda Sea. Earthquakes caused fatalities in China and Indonesia. The greatest number of deaths (2,500) for the year occurred in Indonesia. In Switzerland, six people were killed by an accidental explosion recoreded by seismographs. In teh United States, a magnitude 5.3 earthquake caused slight damage at Big Bear in southern California. 

  11. History of significant earthquakes in the Parkfield area

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bakun, W.H.

    1988-01-01

    Seismicity on the San Andreas fault near Parkfield occurs in a tectonic section that differs markedly from neighboring sections along the San Andreas to the northwest and to the southeast. Northwest of the Parkfield section, small shocks (magnitudes of less than 4) do occur frequently, but San Andreas movement occurs predominantly as aseismic fault creep; shocks of magnitude 6 and larger are unknown, and little, if any, strain is accumulating. In contrast, very few small earthquakes and no aseismic slip have been observed on the adjacent section to the southeast, the Cholame section, which is considered to be locked, in as much as it apparently ruptures exclusively in large earthquakes (magnitudes greater than 7), most recently during the great Fort Tejon earthquake of 1857. The Parkfield section is thus a transition zone between two sections having different modes of fault failure. In fact, the regularity of significant earthquakes at Parkfield since 1857 may be due to the nearly constant slip rate pattern on the adjoining fault sections. Until the magnitude 6.7 Coalinga earthquake on May 2, 1983, 40 kilmoeters northeast of Parkfield, the Parkfield section had been relatively free of stress changes due to nearby shocks; the effect of the Coalinga shock on the timing of the next Parkfield shock is not known. 

  12. Listening to Earthquakes with Infrasound

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mucek, A. E.; Langston, C. A.

    2011-12-01

    A tripartite infrasound array was installed to listen to earthquakes occurring along the Guy-Greenbrier fault in Arkansas. The active earthquake swarm is believed to be caused by deep waste water injections and will allow us to explain the mechanisms causing earthquake "booms" that have been heard during an earthquake. The array has an aperture of 50 meters and is installed next to the X301 seismograph station run by the Center for Earthquake Research and Information (CERI). This arrangement allows simultaneous recording of seismic and acoustic changes from the arrival of an earthquake. Other acoustic and seismic sources that have been found include thunder from thunderstorms, gunshots, quarry explosions and hydraulic fracturing activity from the local gas wells. The duration of the experiment is from the last week of June to the last week of September 2011. During the first month and a half, seven local earthquakes were recorded, along with numerous occurrences of the other infrasound sources. Phase arrival times of the recorded waves allow us to estimate wave slowness and azimuth of infrasound events. Using these two properties, we can determine whether earthquake "booms" occur at a site from the arrival of the P-wave or whether the earthquake "booms" occur elsewhere and travel through the atmosphere. Preliminary results show that the infrasound correlates well to the ground motion during an earthquake for frequencies below 15 Hertz.

  13. Distribution of similar earthquakes in aftershocks of inland earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hayashi, M.; Hiramatsu, Y.; Aftershock Observations Of 2007 Noto Hanto, G.

    2010-12-01

    Frictional properties control the slip behavior on a fault surface such as seismic slip and aseismic slip. Asperity, as a seismic slip area, is characterized by a strong coupling in the interseismic period and large coseismic slip. On the other hand, steady slip or afterslip occurs in an aseismic slip area around the asperity. If an afterslip area includes small asperities, a repeating rupture of single asperity can generate similar earthquakes due to the stress accumulation caused by the afterslip. We here investigate a detail distribution of similar earthquakes in the aftershocks of the 2007 Noto Hanto earthquake (Mjma 6.9) and the 2000 Western Tottori earthquake (Mjma 7.3), inland large earthquakes in Japan. We use the data obtained by the group for the aftershock observations of the 2007 Noto Hanto Earthquake and by the group for the aftershock observations of the 2000 Western Tottori earthquake. First, we select pairs of aftershocks whose cross correlation coefficients in 10 s time window of band-pass filtered waveforms of 1~4 Hz are greater than 0.95 at more than 5 stations and divide those into groups by a link of the cross correlation coefficients. Second, we reexamine the arrival times of P and S waves and the maximum amplitude for earthquakes of each group and apply the double-difference method (Waldhouser and Ellsworth, 2000) to relocate them. As a result of the analysis, we find 24 groups of similar earthquakes in the aftershocks on the source fault of the 2007 Noto Hanto Earthquake and 86 groups of similar earthquakes in the aftershocks on the source fault of the 2000 Western Tottori Earthquake. Most of them are distributed around or outside the asperity of the main shock. Geodetic studies reported that postseismic deformation was detected for the both earthquakes (Sagiya et al., 2002; Hashimoto et al., 2008). The source area of similar earthquakes seems to correspond to the afterslip area. These features suggest that the similar earthquakes observed

  14. Volcanic earthquake swarms at Mt. Erebus, Antarctica

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kaminuma, Katsutada; Ueki, Sadato; Juergen, Kienle

    1985-04-01

    Mount Erebus is an active volcano in Antarctica located on Ross Island. A convecting lava lake occupies the summit crater of Mt. Erebus. Since December 1980 the seismic activity of Mt. Erebus has been continuously monitored using a radio-telemetered network of six seismic stations. The seismic activity observed by the Ross Island network during the 1982-1983 field season shows that: (1)Strombolian eruptions occur frequently at the Erebus summit lava lake at rates of 2-5 per day; (2)centrally located earthquakes map out a nearly vertical, narrow conduit system beneath the lava lake; (3)there are other source regions of seismicity on Ross Island, well removed from Mt. Erebus proper. An intense earthquake swarm recorded in October 1982 near Abbott Peak, 10 km northwest of the summit of Mt. Erebus, and volcanic tremor accompanying the swarm, may have been associated with new dike emplacement at depth.

  15. Earthquake Facts

    MedlinePlus

    ... May 22, 1960. The earliest reported earthquake in California was felt in 1769 by the exploring expedition ... by wind or tides. Each year the southern California area has about 10,000 earthquakes . Most of ...

  16. The parkfield, california, earthquake prediction experiment.

    PubMed

    Bakun, W H; Lindh, A G

    1985-08-16

    Five moderate (magnitude 6) earthquakes with similar features have occurred on the Parkfield section of the San Andreas fault in central California since 1857. The next moderate Parkfield earthquake is expected to occur before 1993. The Parkfield prediction experiment is designed to monitor the details of the final stages of the earthquake preparation process; observations and reports of seismicity and aseismic slip associated with the last moderate Parkfield earthquake in 1966 constitute much of the basis of the design of the experiment.

  17. Upper-Plate Earthquake Swarms Remotely Triggered by the 2012 Mw-7.6 Nicoya Earthquake, Costa Rica

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Linkimer, L.; Arroyo, I. G.; Montero Pohly, W. K.; Lücke, O. H.

    2013-12-01

    Remotely triggered seismicity that takes place at distances greater than 1-2 fault lengths appears to be a frequent phenomenon after large earthquakes, including damaging upper-plate 5.0-to-6.0 magnitude earthquakes in Costa Rica after the large (Mw greater than 7.0) inter-plate earthquakes in 1941, 1950, 1983, 1990, and 1991. On 5 of September 2012, an inter-plate 7.6-Mw earthquake struck the Nicoya Peninsula, triggering upper-plate seismicity in the interior of Costa Rica again. The number of upper plate-earthquakes outside the Nicoya source region that were recorded by the National Seismological Network (RSN: UCR-ICE) for the six-month period after the Nicoya event was two times higher than that number of upper plate-earthquakes during the six months before it happened. We analyze the three largest upper-plate earthquake swarms that took place during the first six months after the Nicoya event. We relocate the epicenters using a double difference algorithm with a 1D velocity model (HypoDD) and using a probabilistic method with a 3D velocity model (NonLinLoc). Additionally we compute first motion focal mechanisms for the largest events. The three swarms analyzed occurred at distances of 170 to 350 km from the Nicoya source region in three different tectonic settings: the Cartago area in the central part of Costa Rica near the active volcanic arc (approximately 170 km from the source region), the Calero Island near the Costa Rica-Nicaragua border in the backarc Caribbean region (approximately 220 km), and the San Vito area in the Costa Rica-Panama border region, at the southern flank of the Talamanca Cordillera, an inactive portion of the magmatic arc (approximately 300 km). The Cartago swarm with 95 1.8-to-4.1 Mw earthquakes occurred from September 5 to October 31, 2012. The location and left-lateral solution of the largest event suggest that the Aguacaliente fault, which caused the deadliest earthquake in Costa Rican history on May 4, 1910 (Ms 6.4), is the

  18. Forecasting Earthquakes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1994-01-01

    In this video there are scenes of damage from the Northridge Earthquake and interviews with Dr. Andrea Donnelan, Geophysics at JPL, and Dr. Jim Dolan, earthquake geologist from Cal. Tech. The interviews discuss earthquake forecasting by tracking changes in the earth's crust using antenna receiving signals from a series of satellites called the Global Positioning System (GPS).

  19. Nowcasting earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rundle, J. B.; Turcotte, D. L.; Donnellan, A.; Grant Ludwig, L.; Luginbuhl, M.; Gong, G.

    2016-11-01

    Nowcasting is a term originating from economics and finance. It refers to the process of determining the uncertain state of the economy or markets at the current time by indirect means. We apply this idea to seismically active regions, where the goal is to determine the current state of the fault system and its current level of progress through the earthquake cycle. In our implementation of this idea, we use the global catalog of earthquakes, using "small" earthquakes to determine the level of hazard from "large" earthquakes in the region. Our method does not involve any model other than the idea of an earthquake cycle. Rather, we define a specific region and a specific large earthquake magnitude of interest, ensuring that we have enough data to span at least 20 or more large earthquake cycles in the region. We then compute the earthquake potential score (EPS) which is defined as the cumulative probability distribution P(n < n(t)) for the current count n(t) for the small earthquakes in the region. From the count of small earthquakes since the last large earthquake, we determine the value of EPS = P(n < n(t)). EPS is therefore the current level of hazard and assigns a number between 0% and 100% to every region so defined, thus providing a unique measure. Physically, the EPS corresponds to an estimate of the level of progress through the earthquake cycle in the defined region at the current time.

  20. Hidden Earthquakes.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stein, Ross S.; Yeats, Robert S.

    1989-01-01

    Points out that large earthquakes can take place not only on faults that cut the earth's surface but also on blind faults under folded terrain. Describes four examples of fold earthquakes. Discusses the fold earthquakes using several diagrams and pictures. (YP)

  1. Earthquake faulting in subduction zones: insights from fault rocks in accretionary prisms

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ujiie, Kohtaro; Kimura, Gaku

    2014-12-01

    Subduction earthquakes on plate-boundary megathrusts accommodate most of the global seismic moment release, frequently resulting in devastating damage by ground shaking and tsunamis. As many earthquakes occur in deep-sea regions, the dynamics of earthquake faulting in subduction zones is poorly understood. However, the Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP) Nankai Trough Seismogenic Zone Experiment (NanTroSEIZE) and fault rock studies in accretionary prisms exhumed from source depths of subduction earthquakes have greatly improved our understanding of earthquake faulting in subduction zones. Here, we review key advances that have been made over the last decade in the studies of fault rocks and in laboratory experiments using fault zone materials, with a particular focus on the Nankai Trough subduction zone and its on-land analog, the Shimanto accretionary complex in Japan. New insights into earthquake faulting in subduction zones are summarized in terms of the following: (1) the occurrence of seismic slip along velocity-strengthening materials both at shallow and deep depths; (2) dynamic weakening of faults by melt lubrication and fluidization, and possible factors controlling coseismic deformation mechanisms; (3) fluid-rock interactions and mineralogical and geochemical changes during earthquakes; and (4) geological and experimental aspects of slow earthquakes.

  2. Earthquakes, September-October 1980

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Person, W.J.

    1981-01-01

    There were two major (magnitudes 7.0-7.9) earthquakes during this reporting period; a magnitude (M) 7.3 in Algeria where many people were killed or injured and extensive damage occurred, and an M=7.2 in the Loyalty Islands region of the South Pacific. Japan was struck by a damaging earthquake on September 24, killing two people and causing injuries. There were no damaging earthquakes in the United States. 

  3. Triggered Earthquakes Following Parkfield?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hough, S. E.

    2004-12-01

    When the M5.0 Arvin earthquake struck approximately 30 hours after the 28 September 2004 M6.0 Parkfield earthquake, it seemed likely if not obvious that the latter had triggered the former. The odds of a M5.0 or greater event occurring by random chance in a given 2-day window is low, on the order of 2%. However, previously published results suggest that remotely triggered earthquakes are observed only following much larger mainshocks, typically M7 or above. Moreover, using a standard beta-statistic approach, one finds no pervasive regional increase of seismicity in the weeks following the Parkfield mainshock. (Neither were any moderate events observed at regional distances following the 1934 and 1966 Parkfield earthquakes.) Was Arvin a remotely triggered earthquake? To address this issue further I compare the seismicity rate changes following the Parkfield mainshock with those following 14 previous M5.3-7.1 earthquakes in central and southern California. I show that, on average, seismicity increased to a distance of at least 120 km following these events. For all but the M7.1 Hector Mine mainshock, this is well beyond the radius of what would be considered a traditional aftershock zone. Average seismicity rates also increase, albeit more weakly, to a distance of about 220 km. These results suggest that even moderate mainshocks in central and southern California do trigger seismicity at distances up to 220 km, supporting the inference that Arvin was indeed a remotely triggered earthquake. In general, only weak triggering is expected following moderate (M5.5-6.5) mainshocks. However, as illustrated by Arvin and, in retrospect, the 1986 M5.5 Oceanside earthquake, which struck just 5 days after the M5.9 North Palm Springs earthquake, triggered events can sometimes be large enough to generate public interest, and anxiety.

  4. Large earthquake processes in the northern Vanuatu subduction zone

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cleveland, K. Michael; Ammon, Charles J.; Lay, Thorne

    2014-12-01

    The northern Vanuatu (formerly New Hebrides) subduction zone (11°S to 14°S) has experienced large shallow thrust earthquakes with Mw > 7 in 1966 (MS 7.9, 7.3), 1980 (Mw 7.5, 7.7), 1997 (Mw 7.7), 2009 (Mw 7.7, 7.8, 7.4), and 2013 (Mw 8.0). We analyze seismic data from the latter four earthquake sequences to quantify the rupture processes of these large earthquakes. The 7 October 2009 earthquakes occurred in close spatial proximity over about 1 h in the same region as the July 1980 doublet. Both sequences activated widespread seismicity along the northern Vanuatu subduction zone. The focal mechanisms indicate interplate thrusting, but there are differences in waveforms that establish that the events are not exact repeats. With an epicenter near the 1980 and 2009 events, the 1997 earthquake appears to have been a shallow intraslab rupture below the megathrust, with strong southward directivity favoring a steeply dipping plane. Some triggered interplate thrusting events occurred as part of this sequence. The 1966 doublet ruptured north of the 1980 and 2009 events and also produced widespread aftershock activity. The 2013 earthquake rupture propagated southward from the northern corner of the trench with shallow slip that generated a substantial tsunami. The repeated occurrence of large earthquake doublets along the northern Vanuatu subduction zone is remarkable considering the doublets likely involved overlapping, yet different combinations of asperities. The frequent occurrence of large doublet events and rapid aftershock expansion in this region indicate the presence of small, irregularly spaced asperities along the plate interface.

  5. Analysis of Recent Major Outer-Rise Earthquake Rupture Characteristics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cleveland, M.; Ammon, C.; Lay, T.; Kanamori, H.

    2009-12-01

    Outer-rise earthquakes can help indicate the degree of seismic coupling of a subduction zone megathrust as well help constrain stress transfer processes in underthrusting oceanic lithosphere during the seismic cycle. In addition, outer rise earthquake-related structures may play a significant role in the transport of water into subduction zones, and possibly provide seismogenic structures re-activated during intermediate-depth earthquakes. And finally, although less frequent than large underthrusting events, large outer-rise earthquakes may pose significant hazard since they have been found to display higher stress drops and greater enrichment in high frequency shaking than comparable size interplate events. In this study we analyze and compare the seismic properties of three specific outer-rise sequences, representing relatively diverse tectonic characteristics, including events from southern Vanuatu (formerly New Hebrides), central Kuril Islands, and the Andaman Islands regions. Similar to several important historic events, these recent large outer rise sequences provide information on the transmission of slab-pull generated stresses and their relationship with large underthrusting earthquakes. To allow comparison with the 13 January (Mw 8.1) 2007 central Kuril Islands sequence that we studied previously, we conduct finite-fault analyses of the 16 May, 1995 Vanuatu, Mw = 7.7 and 10 August, 2009 Andaman Islands, Mw = 7.5, outer-rise events using azimuthally distributed teleseismic P and SH waveforms and Rayleigh-wave effective source time functions. The unique tectonic geometry of the Vanuatu event, occurring near the corner of the overriding Pacific Plate, conveys information about the influence of geometry on the outer-rise character. The Andaman earthquake occurred in a region with substantially oblique plate motion where geometrical plate relationships remain somewhat unclear. Considering their seismic properties and relationship to nearby great underthrusting

  6. The 1868 Hayward Earthquake Alliance: A Case Study - Using an Earthquake Anniversary to Promote Earthquake Preparedness

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brocher, T. M.; Garcia, S.; Aagaard, B. T.; Boatwright, J. J.; Dawson, T.; Hellweg, M.; Knudsen, K. L.; Perkins, J.; Schwartz, D. P.; Stoffer, P. W.; Zoback, M.

    2008-12-01

    Last October 21st marked the 140th anniversary of the M6.8 1868 Hayward Earthquake, the last damaging earthquake on the southern Hayward Fault. This anniversary was used to help publicize the seismic hazards associated with the fault because: (1) the past five such earthquakes on the Hayward Fault occurred about 140 years apart on average, and (2) the Hayward-Rodgers Creek Fault system is the most likely (with a 31 percent probability) fault in the Bay Area to produce a M6.7 or greater earthquake in the next 30 years. To promote earthquake awareness and preparedness, over 140 public and private agencies and companies and many individual joined the public-private nonprofit 1868 Hayward Earthquake Alliance (1868alliance.org). The Alliance sponsored many activities including a public commemoration at Mission San Jose in Fremont, which survived the 1868 earthquake. This event was followed by an earthquake drill at Bay Area schools involving more than 70,000 students. The anniversary prompted the Silver Sentinel, an earthquake response exercise based on the scenario of an earthquake on the Hayward Fault conducted by Bay Area County Offices of Emergency Services. 60 other public and private agencies also participated in this exercise. The California Seismic Safety Commission and KPIX (CBS affiliate) produced professional videos designed forschool classrooms promoting Drop, Cover, and Hold On. Starting in October 2007, the Alliance and the U.S. Geological Survey held a sequence of press conferences to announce the release of new research on the Hayward Fault as well as new loss estimates for a Hayward Fault earthquake. These included: (1) a ShakeMap for the 1868 Hayward earthquake, (2) a report by the U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics forecasting the number of employees, employers, and wages predicted to be within areas most strongly shaken by a Hayward Fault earthquake, (3) new estimates of the losses associated with a Hayward Fault earthquake, (4) new ground motion

  7. Living with earthquakes - development and usage of earthquake-resistant construction methods in European and Asian Antiquity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kázmér, Miklós; Major, Balázs; Hariyadi, Agus; Pramumijoyo, Subagyo; Ditto Haryana, Yohanes

    2010-05-01

    outermost layer was treated this way, the core of the shrines was made of simple rectangular blocks. The system resisted both in-plane and out-of-plane shaking quite well, as proven by survival of many shrines for more than a millennium, and by fracturing of blocks instead of displacement during the 2006 Yogyakarta earthquake. Systematic use or disuse of known earthquake-resistant techniques in any one society depends on the perception of earthquake risk and on available financial resources. Earthquake-resistant construction practice is significantly more expensive than regular construction. Perception is influenced mostly by short individual and longer social memory. If earthquake recurrence time is longer than the preservation of social memory, if damaging quakes fade into the past, societies commit the same construction mistakes again and again. Length of the memory is possibly about a generation's lifetime. Events occurring less frequently than 25-30 years can be readily forgotten, and the risk of recurrence considered as negligible, not worth the costs of safe construction practices. (Example of recurring flash floods in Hungary.) Frequent earthquakes maintain safe construction practices, like the Java masonry technique throughout at least two centuries, and like the Fachwerk tradition on Modern Aegean Samos throughout 500 years of political and technological development. (OTKA K67583)

  8. Earthquakes; May-June 1977

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Person, W.J.

    1977-01-01

    The months of May and June were somewhat quiet seismically speaking. There was only on significant earthquake, a magnitude 7.2 on June 22 in teh Tonga Islands. In teh United States, the two largest earthquakes occurred in California and on Hawaii. 

  9. Earthquakes, January-February 1974

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Person, W.J.

    1974-01-01

    During the first 2 months of 1974, earthquakes caused fatalities in Peru and Turkey. The largest earthquake during the period was a magnitude 7.2 shock in the New Hebrides Islands. A local tsunami was generated by a magnitude 7.0 earthquake in the Solomon Islands. The relative quiet that characterized world seismicity during the last year continued through the period. There have been no great earthquakes (magnitude 8.0 or larger) since January 10, 1971, when a magnitude 8.1 shock occurred in western New Guinea. 

  10. Earthquakes, July-August 1992

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Person, W.J.

    1992-01-01

    There were two major earthquakes (7.0≤M<8.0) during this reporting period. A magnitude 7.5 earthquake occurred in Kyrgyzstan on August 19 and a magnitude 7.0 quake struck the Ascension Island region on August 28. In southern California, aftershocks of the magnitude 7.6 earthquake on June 28, 1992, continued. One of these aftershocks caused damage and injuries, and at least one other aftershock caused additional damage. Earthquake-related fatalities were reportred in Kyrgzstan and Pakistan. 

  11. The October 1988 Elia Prefecture Earthquake (SW Greece): Seismic Environment, Building Types and Damage Patterns.

    PubMed

    Pomonis, A

    1989-06-01

    Earthquake disasters occur frequently in Greece, causing serious building damage and considerable loss of life. The latest event, on 16 October 1988, though not one of the most destructive, caused considerable damage. Strong motion records have been obtained near to the damaged region and this provides the opportunity to assess the extent of damage to various building types, and compare it with damage caused during another recent earthquake. The common characteristics of each building type are given, along with the typical damage patterns. Comments are also made about the seismicity of Greece and earthquake damage during this century. The building type distribution in various parts of the country is also discussed, with a view to future earthquake disaster prevention and mitigation.

  12. Earthquake Recurrence and Deformation in the Last Four Events on the Santa Cruz Mountains Section of the San Andreas Fault

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Streig, A. R.; Dawson, T. E.; Weldon, R. J.

    2012-12-01

    Paleoseismic investigations at the Hazel Dell site on the Santa Cruz Mountains section (SAS) of the San Andreas fault has yielded evidence of four earthquakes. We present evidence of the 1906 surface rupture (E1), and 3 earlier events, including new evidence for two 1800's earthquakes. Evidence for the penultimate event, E2, is expressed as upward fault terminations within a massive sand infilling a topographic low. This sand infilled a depression formed by the pre-penultimate earthquake, E3. We identified axe-cut wood stratigraphically below the pre-penultimate earthquake horizon, which suggests that surface rupturing earthquakes E2 and E3 occurred after deposition of the cut wood stratigraphic unit. Lumber harvesting began in the area around 1832, and new radiocarbon dates sampled from redwood growth rings demonstrate that earthquakes E2 and E3 are historical. E4 occurred between A.D. 1651 and 1497. These new event data for the SAS suggest more frequent surface rupturing earthquakes within historical time than previously recognized. The data require at least two modes of behavior in strain release on the SAS through time. One mode of strain release, is through large multi-segment earthquakes; the 1906 event was a large multi-segment earthquake that dominates the moment budget of the fault. During the period prior to 1906, analysis of the historic record suggests that the SAS was characterized by a second mode of moderate seismicity, with six M≥ 6 earthquakes between 1838 and 1890 (Bakun, 1999), all located along the southern half of the segment near the Hazel Dell study area. The two 1800's earthquakes identified in this study support this second mode of moderate seismicity on the SAS.

  13. Education for Earthquake Disaster Prevention in the Tokyo Metropolitan Area

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Oki, S.; Tsuji, H.; Koketsu, K.; Yazaki, Y.

    2008-12-01

    Japan frequently suffers from all types of disasters such as earthquakes, typhoons, floods, volcanic eruptions, and landslides. In the first half of this year, we already had three big earthquakes and heavy rainfall, which killed more than 30 people. This is not just for Japan but Asia is the most disaster-afflicted region in the world, accounting for about 90% of all those affected by disasters, and more than 50% of the total fatalities and economic losses. One of the most essential ways to reduce the damage of natural disasters is to educate the general public to let them understand what is going on during those desasters. This leads individual to make the sound decision on what to do to prevent or reduce the damage. The Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT), therefore, offered for public subscription to choose several model areas to adopt scientific education to the local elementary schools, and ERI, the Earthquake Research Institute, is qualified to develop education for earthquake disaster prevention in the Tokyo metropolitan area. The tectonic setting of this area is very complicated; there are the Pacific and Philippine Sea plates subducting beneath the North America and the Eurasia plates. The subduction of the Philippine Sea plate causes mega-thrust earthquakes such as the 1703 Genroku earthquake (M 8.0) and the 1923 Kanto earthquake (M 7.9) which had 105,000 fatalities. A magnitude 7 or greater earthquake beneath this area is recently evaluated to occur with a probability of 70 % in 30 years. This is of immediate concern for the devastating loss of life and property because the Tokyo urban region now has a population of 42 million and is the center of approximately 40 % of the nation's activities, which may cause great global economic repercussion. To better understand earthquakes in this region, "Special Project for Earthquake Disaster Mitigation in Tokyo Metropolitan Area" has been conducted mainly by ERI. It is a 4-year

  14. Upper-Plate Seismicity Remotely Triggered by the 2012 Mw-7.6 Nicoya Earthquake, Costa Rica

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Linkimer, L.; Arroyo, I. G.; Montero Pohly, W. K.; Lücke, O. H.

    2014-12-01

    Remotely triggered seismicity that takes place at distances greater than 1-2 fault lengths appears to be a frequent phenomenon after large earthquakes, including examples in Costa Rica after the large (Mw > 7.0) inter-plate earthquakes in 1941, 1950, 1983, 1990, and 1991. On September 5, 2012, an inter-plate 7.6-Mw earthquake struck the Nicoya Peninsula, triggering upper-plate seismicity in the interior of Costa Rica. In this study, we analyze the largest earthquakes and earthquake swarms that took place during the first nine months after the Nicoya earthquake. These swarms occurred at distances of 150 to 450 km from the Nicoya source region in different tectonic settings: the Calero Island near the Costa Rica-Nicaragua border in the backarc Caribbean region, the Sixaola region near the Costa Rica-Panama border in the backarc Caribbean region, the Cartago area in the central part of Costa Rica near the active volcanic arc, and the San Vito area in the Costa Rica-Panama border region, at the southern flank of the Talamanca Cordillera in an inactive portion of the magmatic arc. The Calero swarm with 70 2.0-to-4.2 Mw earthquakes took place from September 22 to October 9, 2012. The earthquake pattern suggests a smaller-scale fault as a possible source, which is located along the inland projection of the Hess Escarpment. The Cartago swarm with 284 1.8-to-4.1 Mw earthquakes occurred from September 5 to October 31, 2012. The focal mechanism solutions suggest that strike-slip faulting predominates in this region, consistent with neotectonic observations. The San Vito earthquake swarm with 30 2.3-to-4.5 Mw earthquakes occurred between October 14, 2012 and January 28, 2013. These earthquakes occurred in the vicinity of north-south striking faults, which are located along the inland projection of the Panama Fracture Zone. The largest earthquake (5.6 Mw) occurred on the Sixaola region on 27 of May, 2013. The focal mechanism solution suggests a thrust fault that correlates with

  15. Intrastab Earthquakes: Dehydration of the Cascadia Slab

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Preston, L.A.; Creager, K.C.; Crosson, R.S.; Brocher, T.M.; Trehu, A.M.

    2003-01-01

    We simultaneously invert travel times of refracted and wide-angle reflected waves for three-dimensional compressional-wave velocity structure, earthquake locations, and reflector geometry in northwest Washington state. The reflector, interpreted to be the crust-mantle boundary (Moho) of the subducting Juan de Fuca plate, separates intrastab earthquakes into two groups, permitting a new understanding of the origins of intrastab earthquakes in Cascadia. Earthquakes up-dip of the Moho's 45-kilometer depth contour occur below the reflector, in the subducted oceanic mantle, consistent with serpentinite dehydration; earthquakes located down-dip occur primarily within the subducted crust, consistent with the basalt-to-eclogite transformation.

  16. How Frequently Are Elementary Students Writing?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sunflower, Cherlyn; Crawford, Leslie W.

    A study examined elementary school writing instruction to determine (1) how frequently students are writing, (2) when in the curriculum writing occurs, and (3) in what forms the writing occurs. Data were collected in 75 elementary classrooms in 25 midwestern schools during a 15-day period. The data deviated little from what D. Graves reported in…

  17. Earthquake precursory events around epicenters and local active faults; the cases of two inland earthquakes in Iran

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Valizadeh Alvan, H.; Mansor, S.; Haydari Azad, F.

    2012-12-01

    The possibility of earthquake prediction in the frame of several days to few minutes before its occurrence has stirred interest among researchers, recently. Scientists believe that the new theories and explanations of the mechanism of this natural phenomenon are trustable and can be the basis of future prediction efforts. During the last thirty years experimental researches resulted in some pre-earthquake events which are now recognized as confirmed warning signs (precursors) of past known earthquakes. With the advances in in-situ measurement devices and data analysis capabilities and the emergence of satellite-based data collectors, monitoring the earth's surface is now a regular work. Data providers are supplying researchers from all over the world with high quality and validated imagery and non-imagery data. Surface Latent Heat Flux (SLHF) or the amount of energy exchange in the form of water vapor between the earth's surface and atmosphere has been frequently reported as an earthquake precursor during the past years. The accumulated stress in the earth's crust during the preparation phase of earthquakes is said to be the main cause of temperature anomalies weeks to days before the main event and subsequent shakes. Chemical and physical interactions in the presence of underground water lead to higher water evaporation prior to inland earthquakes. On the other hand, the leak of Radon gas occurred as rocks break during earthquake preparation causes the formation of airborne ions and higher Air Temperature (AT) prior to main event. Although co-analysis of direct and indirect observation for precursory events is considered as a promising method for future successful earthquake prediction, without proper and thorough knowledge about the geological setting, atmospheric factors and geodynamics of the earthquake-prone regions we will not be able to identify anomalies due to seismic activity in the earth's crust. Active faulting is a key factor in identification of the

  18. Earthquakes, September-October, 1979

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Person, W.J.

    1980-01-01

    In the United States, California experienced the strongest earthquake in that State since 1971. The quake, a M=6.8, occurred on October 15, in Baja California, Mexico, near the California border and caused injuries and damage. 

  19. Seismology: Remote-controlled earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hayes, Gavin

    2016-04-01

    Large earthquakes cause other quakes near and far. Analyses of quakes in Pakistan and Chile suggest that such triggering can occur almost instantaneously, making triggered events hard to detect, and potentially enhancing the associated hazards.

  20. Earthquakes in Stable Continental Crust.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Johnston, Arch C.; Kanter, Lisa R.

    1990-01-01

    Discussed are some of the reasons for earthquakes which occur in stable crust away from familiar zones at the ends of tectonic plates. Crust stability and the reactivation of old faults are described using examples from India and Australia. (CW)

  1. Tectonic controls on earthquake size distribution and seismicity rate: slab buoyancy and slab bending

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nishikawa, T.; Ide, S.

    2014-12-01

    There are clear variations in maximum earthquake magnitude among Earth's subduction zones. These variations have been studied extensively and attributed to differences in tectonic properties in subduction zones, such as relative plate velocity and subducting plate age [Ruff and Kanamori, 1980]. In addition to maximum earthquake magnitude, the seismicity of medium to large earthquakes also differs among subduction zones, such as the b-value (i.e., the slope of the earthquake size distribution) and the frequency of seismic events. However, the casual relationship between the seismicity of medium to large earthquakes and subduction zone tectonics has been unclear. Here we divide Earth's subduction zones into over 100 study regions following Ide [2013] and estimate b-values and the background seismicity rate—the frequency of seismic events excluding aftershocks—for subduction zones worldwide using the maximum likelihood method [Utsu, 1965; Aki, 1965] and the epidemic type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model [Ogata, 1988]. We demonstrate that the b-value varies as a function of subducting plate age and trench depth, and that the background seismicity rate is related to the degree of slab bending at the trench. Large earthquakes tend to occur relatively frequently (lower b-values) in shallower subduction zones with younger slabs, and more earthquakes occur in subduction zones with deeper trench and steeper dip angle. These results suggest that slab buoyancy, which depends on subducting plate age, controls the earthquake size distribution, and that intra-slab faults due to slab bending, which increase with the steepness of the slab dip angle, have influence on the frequency of seismic events, because they produce heterogeneity in plate coupling and efficiently inject fluid to elevate pore fluid pressure on the plate interface. This study reveals tectonic factors that control earthquake size distribution and seismicity rate, and these relationships between seismicity and

  2. Modern Earthquake Hazard Assessments in Afghanistan: A USGS Training Course

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Garthwaite, M.; Mooney, W. D.; Medlin, J.; Holzer, T.; McGarr, A.; Bohannon, R.

    2007-12-01

    Afghanistan is located in a tectonically active region at the western extent of the Indo-Asian collision zone, where ongoing deformation has generated rugged mountainous terrain, and where large earthquakes occur frequently. These earthquakes can cause damage, not only from strong ground shaking and surface rupture, but also from liquefaction and extensive landsliding. The M=6.1 earthquake of March 25, 2002 highlighted the vulnerability of Afghan communities to such hazards, and resulted in at least 1000 fatalities. This training course in modern earthquake hazard assessments is an integral part of the international effort to provide technical assistance to Afghanistan using an "end-to-end" approach. This approach involves providing assistance in all stages of hazard assessment, from identifying earthquakes, to disseminating information on mitigation strategies to the public. The purpose of this training course, held December 2-6, 2006 at the Afghan Geological Survey in Kabul, was to provide a solid background in the relevant seismological and geological methods for preparing for future earthquakes. With this information, participants may now be expected to educate other members of the Afghan community. In addition, they are better prepared to conduct earthquake hazard assessments and to build the capabilities of the Afghan Geological Survey. The training course was taught using a series of Power Point lectures, with all lectures being presented in English and translated into Dari, one of the two main languages of Afghanistan. The majority of lecture slides were also annotated in both English and Dari. Lectures were provided to the students in both hardcopy and digital formats. As part of the on-going USGS participation in the program, additional training sessions are planned in the subjects of field geology, modern concepts in Earth science, mineral resource assessments and applied geophysics.

  3. Modeling earthquake activity using a memristor-based cellular grid

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vourkas, Ioannis; Sirakoulis, Georgios Ch.

    2013-04-01

    Earthquakes are absolutely among the most devastating natural phenomena because of their immediate and long-term severe consequences. Earthquake activity modeling, especially in areas known to experience frequent large earthquakes, could lead to improvements in infrastructure development that will prevent possible loss of lives and property damage. An earthquake process is inherently a nonlinear complex system and lately scientists have become interested in finding possible analogues of earthquake dynamics. The majority of the models developed so far were based on a mass-spring model of either one or two dimensions. An early approach towards the reordering and the improvement of existing models presenting the capacitor-inductor (LC) analogue, where the LC circuit resembles a mass-spring system and simulates earthquake activity, was also published recently. Electromagnetic oscillation occurs when energy is transferred between the capacitor and the inductor. This energy transformation is similar to the mechanical oscillation that takes place in the mass-spring system. A few years ago memristor-based oscillators were used as learning circuits exposed to a train of voltage pulses that mimic environment changes. The mathematical foundation of the memristor (memory resistor), as the fourth fundamental passive element, has been expounded by Leon Chua and later extended to a more broad class of memristors, known as memristive devices and systems. This class of two-terminal passive circuit elements with memory performs both information processing and storing of computational data on the same physical platform. Importantly, the states of these devices adjust to input signals and provide analog capabilities unavailable in standard circuit elements, resulting in adaptive circuitry and providing analog parallel computation. In this work, a memristor-based cellular grid is used to model earthquake activity. An LC contour along with a memristor is used to model seismic activity

  4. Earthquake prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Turcotte, Donald L.

    1991-01-01

    The state of the art in earthquake prediction is discussed. Short-term prediction based on seismic precursors, changes in the ratio of compressional velocity to shear velocity, tilt and strain precursors, electromagnetic precursors, hydrologic phenomena, chemical monitors, and animal behavior is examined. Seismic hazard assessment is addressed, and the applications of dynamical systems to earthquake prediction are discussed.

  5. Earthquake Hazards.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Donovan, Neville

    1979-01-01

    Provides a survey and a review of earthquake activity and global tectonics from the advancement of the theory of continental drift to the present. Topics include: an identification of the major seismic regions of the earth, seismic measurement techniques, seismic design criteria for buildings, and the prediction of earthquakes. (BT)

  6. Earthquake Drill using the Earthquake Early Warning System at an Elementary School

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Oki, Satoko; Yazaki, Yoshiaki; Koketsu, Kazuki

    2010-05-01

    Japan frequently suffers from many kinds of disasters such as earthquakes, typhoons, floods, volcanic eruptions, and landslides. On average, we lose about 120 people a year due to natural hazards in this decade. Above all, earthquakes are noteworthy, since it may kill thousands of people in a moment like in Kobe in 1995. People know that we may have "a big one" some day as long as we live on this land and that what to do; retrofit houses, appliance heavy furniture to walls, add latches to kitchen cabinets, and prepare emergency packs. Yet most of them do not take the action, and result in the loss of many lives. It is only the victims that learn something from the earthquake, and it has never become the lore of the nations. One of the most essential ways to reduce the damage is to educate the general public to be able to make the sound decision on what to do at the moment when an earthquake hits. This will require the knowledge of the backgrounds of the on-going phenomenon. The Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT), therefore, offered for public subscription to choose several model areas to adopt scientific education to the local elementary schools. This presentation is the report of a year and half courses that we had at the model elementary school in Tokyo Metropolitan Area. The tectonic setting of this area is very complicated; there are the Pacific and Philippine Sea plates subducting beneath the North America and the Eurasia plates. The subduction of the Philippine Sea plate causes mega-thrust earthquakes such as the 1923 Kanto earthquake (M 7.9) making 105,000 fatalities. A magnitude 7 or greater earthquake beneath this area is recently evaluated to occur with a probability of 70 % in 30 years. This is of immediate concern for the devastating loss of life and property because the Tokyo urban region now has a population of 42 million and is the center of approximately 40 % of the nation's activities, which may cause great global

  7. Earthquake damage to schools

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McCullough, Heather

    1994-01-01

    These unusual slides show earthquake damage to school and university buildings around the world. They graphically illustrate the potential danger to our schools, and to the welfare of our children, that results from major earthquakes. The slides range from Algeria, where a collapsed school roof is held up only by students' desks; to Anchorage, Alaska, where an elementary school structure has split in half; to California and other areas, where school buildings have sustained damage to walls, roofs, and chimneys. Interestingly, all the United States earthquakes depicted in this set of slides occurred either on a holiday or before or after school hours, except the 1935 tremor in Helena, Montana, which occurred at 11:35 am. It undoubtedly would have caused casualties had the schools not been closed days earlier by Helena city officials because of a damaging foreshock. Students in Algeria, the People's Republic of China, Armenia, and other stricken countries were not so fortunate. This set of slides represents 17 destructive earthquakes that occurred in 9 countries, and covers more than a century--from 1886 to 1988. Two of the tremors, both of which occurred in the United States, were magnitude 8+ on the Richter Scale, and four were magnitude 7-7.9. The events represented by the slides (see table below) claimed more than a quarter of a million lives.

  8. Complex earthquake rupture and local tsunamis

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Geist, E.L.

    2002-01-01

    In contrast to far-field tsunami amplitudes that are fairly well predicted by the seismic moment of subduction zone earthquakes, there exists significant variation in the scaling of local tsunami amplitude with respect to seismic moment. From a global catalog of tsunami runup observations this variability is greatest for the most frequently occuring tsunamigenic subduction zone earthquakes in the magnitude range of 7 < Mw < 8.5. Variability in local tsunami runup scaling can be ascribed to tsunami source parameters that are independent of seismic moment: variations in the water depth in the source region, the combination of higher slip and lower shear modulus at shallow depth, and rupture complexity in the form of heterogeneous slip distribution patterns. The focus of this study is on the effect that rupture complexity has on the local tsunami wave field. A wide range of slip distribution patterns are generated using a stochastic, self-affine source model that is consistent with the falloff of far-field seismic displacement spectra at high frequencies. The synthetic slip distributions generated by the stochastic source model are discretized and the vertical displacement fields from point source elastic dislocation expressions are superimposed to compute the coseismic vertical displacement field. For shallow subduction zone earthquakes it is demonstrated that self-affine irregularities of the slip distribution result in significant variations in local tsunami amplitude. The effects of rupture complexity are less pronounced for earthquakes at greater depth or along faults with steep dip angles. For a test region along the Pacific coast of central Mexico, peak nearshore tsunami amplitude is calculated for a large number (N = 100) of synthetic slip distribution patterns, all with identical seismic moment (Mw = 8.1). Analysis of the results indicates that for earthquakes of a fixed location, geometry, and seismic moment, peak nearshore tsunami amplitude can vary by a

  9. Analog earthquakes

    SciTech Connect

    Hofmann, R.B.

    1995-09-01

    Analogs are used to understand complex or poorly understood phenomena for which little data may be available at the actual repository site. Earthquakes are complex phenomena, and they can have a large number of effects on the natural system, as well as on engineered structures. Instrumental data close to the source of large earthquakes are rarely obtained. The rare events for which measurements are available may be used, with modfications, as analogs for potential large earthquakes at sites where no earthquake data are available. In the following, several examples of nuclear reactor and liquified natural gas facility siting are discussed. A potential use of analog earthquakes is proposed for a high-level nuclear waste (HLW) repository.

  10. Anthropogenic Triggering of Large Earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mulargia, Francesco; Bizzarri, Andrea

    2014-08-01

    The physical mechanism of the anthropogenic triggering of large earthquakes on active faults is studied on the basis of experimental phenomenology, i.e., that earthquakes occur on active tectonic faults, that crustal stress values are those measured in situ and, on active faults, comply to the values of the stress drop measured for real earthquakes, that the static friction coefficients are those inferred on faults, and that the effective triggering stresses are those inferred for real earthquakes. Deriving the conditions for earthquake nucleation as a time-dependent solution of the Tresca-Von Mises criterion applied in the framework of poroelasticity yields that active faults can be triggered by fluid overpressures < 0.1 MPa. Comparing this with the deviatoric stresses at the depth of crustal hypocenters, which are of the order of 1-10 MPa, we find that injecting in the subsoil fluids at the pressures typical of oil and gas production and storage may trigger destructive earthquakes on active faults at a few tens of kilometers. Fluid pressure propagates as slow stress waves along geometric paths operating in a drained condition and can advance the natural occurrence of earthquakes by a substantial amount of time. Furthermore, it is illusory to control earthquake triggering by close monitoring of minor ``foreshocks'', since the induction may occur with a delay up to several years.

  11. Anthropogenic triggering of large earthquakes.

    PubMed

    Mulargia, Francesco; Bizzarri, Andrea

    2014-08-26

    The physical mechanism of the anthropogenic triggering of large earthquakes on active faults is studied on the basis of experimental phenomenology, i.e., that earthquakes occur on active tectonic faults, that crustal stress values are those measured in situ and, on active faults, comply to the values of the stress drop measured for real earthquakes, that the static friction coefficients are those inferred on faults, and that the effective triggering stresses are those inferred for real earthquakes. Deriving the conditions for earthquake nucleation as a time-dependent solution of the Tresca-Von Mises criterion applied in the framework of poroelasticity yields that active faults can be triggered by fluid overpressures < 0.1 MPa. Comparing this with the deviatoric stresses at the depth of crustal hypocenters, which are of the order of 1-10 MPa, we find that injecting in the subsoil fluids at the pressures typical of oil and gas production and storage may trigger destructive earthquakes on active faults at a few tens of kilometers. Fluid pressure propagates as slow stress waves along geometric paths operating in a drained condition and can advance the natural occurrence of earthquakes by a substantial amount of time. Furthermore, it is illusory to control earthquake triggering by close monitoring of minor "foreshocks", since the induction may occur with a delay up to several years.

  12. Anthropogenic Triggering of Large Earthquakes

    PubMed Central

    Mulargia, Francesco; Bizzarri, Andrea

    2014-01-01

    The physical mechanism of the anthropogenic triggering of large earthquakes on active faults is studied on the basis of experimental phenomenology, i.e., that earthquakes occur on active tectonic faults, that crustal stress values are those measured in situ and, on active faults, comply to the values of the stress drop measured for real earthquakes, that the static friction coefficients are those inferred on faults, and that the effective triggering stresses are those inferred for real earthquakes. Deriving the conditions for earthquake nucleation as a time-dependent solution of the Tresca-Von Mises criterion applied in the framework of poroelasticity yields that active faults can be triggered by fluid overpressures < 0.1 MPa. Comparing this with the deviatoric stresses at the depth of crustal hypocenters, which are of the order of 1–10 MPa, we find that injecting in the subsoil fluids at the pressures typical of oil and gas production and storage may trigger destructive earthquakes on active faults at a few tens of kilometers. Fluid pressure propagates as slow stress waves along geometric paths operating in a drained condition and can advance the natural occurrence of earthquakes by a substantial amount of time. Furthermore, it is illusory to control earthquake triggering by close monitoring of minor “foreshocks”, since the induction may occur with a delay up to several years. PMID:25156190

  13. Recent earthquake prediction research in Japan.

    PubMed

    Mogi, K

    1986-07-18

    Japan has experienced many major earthquake disasters in the past. Early in this century research began that was aimed at predicting the occurrence of earthquakes, and in 1965 an earthquake prediction program was started as a national project. In 1978 a program for constant monitoring and assessment was formally inaugurated with the goal of forecasting the major earthquake that is expected to occur in the near future in the Tokai district of central Honshu Island. The issue of predicting the anticipated Tokai earthquake is discussed in this article as well as the results of research on major recent earthquakes in Japan-the Izu earthquakes (1978 and 1980) and the Japan Sea earthquake (1983).

  14. Earthquakes in Oita triggered by the 2016 M7.3 Kumamoto earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yoshida, Shingo

    2016-11-01

    During the passage of the seismic waves from the M7.3 Kumamoto, Kyushu, earthquake on April 16, 2016, a M5.7 [semiofficial value estimated by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA)] event occurred in the central part of Oita prefecture, approximately 80 km far away from the mainshock. Although there have been a number of reports that M < 5 earthquakes were remotely triggered during the passage of seismic waves from mainshocks, there has been no evidence for M > 5 triggered events. In this paper, we firstly confirm that this event is a M6-class event by re-estimating the magnitude using the strong-motion records of K-NET and KiK-net, and crustal deformation data at the Yufuin station observed by the Geospatial Information Authority of Japan. Next, by investigating the aftershocks of 45 mainshocks which occurred over the past 20 years based on the JMA earthquake catalog (JMAEC), we found that the delay time of the 2016 M5.7 event in Oita was the shortest. Therefore, the M5.7 event could be regarded as an exceptional M > 5 event that was triggered by passing seismic waves, unlike the usual triggered events and aftershocks. Moreover, a search of the JMAEC shows that in the 2016 Oita aftershock area, swarm earthquake activity was low over the past 30 years compared with neighboring areas. We also found that in the past, probably or possibly triggered events frequently occurred in the 2016 Oita aftershock area. The Oita area readily responds to remote triggering because of high geothermal activity and young volcanism in the area. The M5.7 Oita event was triggered by passing seismic waves, probably because large dynamic stress change was generated by the mainshock at a short distance and because the Oita area was already loaded to a critical stress state without a recent energy release as suggested by the past low swarm activity.[Figure not available: see fulltext.

  15. Are the earthquakes of Central Virginia influenced by underground water fed by precipitation?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Muco, B.

    2012-12-01

    Even though Central Virginia is far from the nearest plate boundaries, the zone is well-known for frequent small-to-moderate shocks that have occurred since at least 18th century. People in central Virginia have felt small earthquakes and suffered damage from infrequent larger ones. The largest damaging earthquake (magnitude 5.8) in this seismic zone occurred in August 2011. Smaller earthquakes that cause little or no damage are felt each year or two. It is difficult to link the earthquakes of this zone to known small faults which are numerous, deeply buried and which don't show up at the surface. The mean earthquake depth since 1960 is 6.7 km. On the other hand, Central Virginia is a big collector and transporter of the precipitation water which run for the Atlantic Ocean through James River and its tributaries. There are about 2,000 abandoned mine lands sites in Virginia which with their underground opening can facilitate the interception and conveying of surface water. Looking for a correlation between earthquake time series for Central Virginia and monthly precipitation series for some hydrometeorological stations of the zone, we got that the best cross-correlation is obtained for a time log of three months. This time period approximately three months, has been observed also in the case of some historical earthquakes which have occurred preceded by large amount of precipitation. A good cross-correlations results also matching earthquake time series with levels of James River and Rivanna River. These results support the hydroseismicity hypothesis which suggests the role of water in the generation of intraplate seismicity

  16. The Spanish National Earthquake Catalogue: Evolution, precision and completeness

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    González, Álvaro

    2016-10-01

    This paper details the evolution, precision and completeness of the earthquake catalogue compiled by the Spanish National Geographic Institute. Over 100,000 earthquakes are included in this database, occurred in a region embracing Spain, Portugal, Morocco, Andorra and parts of France and Algeria. The catalogue has improved along time, thanks to the development of the seismic network and the upgrades of the routine data acquisition and analysis. The location precision is found to be much better on the Iberian Peninsula than offshore and benefitted especially from the implementation of modern automatic procedures for hypocentral determinations. The different magnitude scales reported in the catalogue, and effects of their changes, are reviewed. In the Iberian Peninsula, Canary Islands and surroundings, detailed successive maps of magnitude of completeness show an overall improvement over the last decades, particularly sudden when the digital broadband network was deployed. Earthquakes are found to be more frequently recorded during nights and weekends, thanks to the lower artificial noise. Despite most blasts have been filtered out of the catalogue, examples of remaining ones are identified by their spatial clustering around mines and quarries, and their timing at the intervals at which blasts are set off (even at night, in contrast to the common assumption that they only occur during daytime). This work highlights the importance of unveiling the spatial and temporal heterogeneities of earthquake catalogues and aims to help future analyses of the seismicity in the region.

  17. Charles Darwin's earthquake reports

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Galiev, Shamil

    2010-05-01

    As it is the 200th anniversary of Darwin's birth, 2009 has also been marked as 170 years since the publication of his book Journal of Researches. During the voyage Darwin landed at Valdivia and Concepcion, Chile, just before, during, and after a great earthquake, which demolished hundreds of buildings, killing and injuring many people. Land was waved, lifted, and cracked, volcanoes awoke and giant ocean waves attacked the coast. Darwin was the first geologist to observe and describe the effects of the great earthquake during and immediately after. These effects sometimes repeated during severe earthquakes; but great earthquakes, like Chile 1835, and giant earthquakes, like Chile 1960, are rare and remain completely unpredictable. This is one of the few areas of science, where experts remain largely in the dark. Darwin suggested that the effects were a result of ‘ …the rending of strata, at a point not very deep below the surface of the earth…' and ‘…when the crust yields to the tension, caused by its gradual elevation, there is a jar at the moment of rupture, and a greater movement...'. Darwin formulated big ideas about the earth evolution and its dynamics. These ideas set the tone for the tectonic plate theory to come. However, the plate tectonics does not completely explain why earthquakes occur within plates. Darwin emphasised that there are different kinds of earthquakes ‘...I confine the foregoing observations to the earthquakes on the coast of South America, or to similar ones, which seem generally to have been accompanied by elevation of the land. But, as we know that subsidence has gone on in other quarters of the world, fissures must there have been formed, and therefore earthquakes...' (we cite the Darwin's sentences following researchspace. auckland. ac. nz/handle/2292/4474). These thoughts agree with results of the last publications (see Nature 461, 870-872; 636-639 and 462, 42-43; 87-89). About 200 years ago Darwin gave oneself airs by the

  18. The Loma Prieta, California, Earthquake of October 17, 1989: Earthquake Occurrence

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Coordinated by Bakun, William H.; Prescott, William H.

    1993-01-01

    Professional Paper 1550 seeks to understand the M6.9 Loma Prieta earthquake itself. It examines how the fault that generated the earthquake ruptured, searches for and evaluates precursors that may have indicated an earthquake was coming, reviews forecasts of the earthquake, and describes the geology of the earthquake area and the crustal forces that affect this geology. Some significant findings were: * Slip during the earthquake occurred on 35 km of fault at depths ranging from 7 to 20 km. Maximum slip was approximately 2.3 m. The earthquake may not have released all of the strain stored in rocks next to the fault and indicates a potential for another damaging earthquake in the Santa Cruz Mountains in the near future may still exist. * The earthquake involved a large amount of uplift on a dipping fault plane. Pre-earthquake conventional wisdom was that large earthquakes in the Bay area occurred as horizontal displacements on predominantly vertical faults. * The fault segment that ruptured approximately coincided with a fault segment identified in 1988 as having a 30% probability of generating a M7 earthquake in the next 30 years. This was one of more than 20 relevant earthquake forecasts made in the 83 years before the earthquake. * Calculations show that the Loma Prieta earthquake changed stresses on nearby faults in the Bay area. In particular, the earthquake reduced stresses on the Hayward Fault which decreased the frequency of small earthquakes on it. * Geological and geophysical mapping indicate that, although the San Andreas Fault can be mapped as a through going fault in the epicentral region, the southwest dipping Loma Prieta rupture surface is a separate fault strand and one of several along this part of the San Andreas that may be capable of generating earthquakes.

  19. The CATDAT damaging earthquakes database

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Daniell, J. E.; Khazai, B.; Wenzel, F.; Vervaeck, A.

    2011-08-01

    The global CATDAT damaging earthquakes and secondary effects (tsunami, fire, landslides, liquefaction and fault rupture) database was developed to validate, remove discrepancies, and expand greatly upon existing global databases; and to better understand the trends in vulnerability, exposure, and possible future impacts of such historic earthquakes. Lack of consistency and errors in other earthquake loss databases frequently cited and used in analyses was a major shortcoming in the view of the authors which needed to be improved upon. Over 17 000 sources of information have been utilised, primarily in the last few years, to present data from over 12 200 damaging earthquakes historically, with over 7000 earthquakes since 1900 examined and validated before insertion into the database. Each validated earthquake includes seismological information, building damage, ranges of social losses to account for varying sources (deaths, injuries, homeless, and affected), and economic losses (direct, indirect, aid, and insured). Globally, a slightly increasing trend in economic damage due to earthquakes is not consistent with the greatly increasing exposure. The 1923 Great Kanto (214 billion USD damage; 2011 HNDECI-adjusted dollars) compared to the 2011 Tohoku (>300 billion USD at time of writing), 2008 Sichuan and 1995 Kobe earthquakes show the increasing concern for economic loss in urban areas as the trend should be expected to increase. Many economic and social loss values not reported in existing databases have been collected. Historical GDP (Gross Domestic Product), exchange rate, wage information, population, HDI (Human Development Index), and insurance information have been collected globally to form comparisons. This catalogue is the largest known cross-checked global historic damaging earthquake database and should have far-reaching consequences for earthquake loss estimation, socio-economic analysis, and the global reinsurance field.

  20. Earthquake Simulator Finds Tremor Triggers

    SciTech Connect

    Johnson, Paul

    2015-03-27

    Using a novel device that simulates earthquakes in a laboratory setting, a Los Alamos researcher has found that seismic waves-the sounds radiated from earthquakes-can induce earthquake aftershocks, often long after a quake has subsided. The research provides insight into how earthquakes may be triggered and how they recur. Los Alamos researcher Paul Johnson and colleague Chris Marone at Penn State have discovered how wave energy can be stored in certain types of granular materials-like the type found along certain fault lines across the globe-and how this stored energy can suddenly be released as an earthquake when hit by relatively small seismic waves far beyond the traditional “aftershock zone” of a main quake. Perhaps most surprising, researchers have found that the release of energy can occur minutes, hours, or even days after the sound waves pass; the cause of the delay remains a tantalizing mystery.

  1. Earthquake hazards: a national threat

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    ,

    2006-01-01

    Earthquakes are one of the most costly natural hazards faced by the Nation, posing a significant risk to 75 million Americans in 39 States. The risks that earthquakes pose to society, including death, injury, and economic loss, can be greatly reduced by (1) better planning, construction, and mitigation practices before earthquakes happen, and (2) providing critical and timely information to improve response after they occur. As part of the multi-agency National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has the lead Federal responsibility to provide notification of earthquakes in order to enhance public safety and to reduce losses through effective forecasts based on the best possible scientific information.

  2. Earthquake Simulator Finds Tremor Triggers

    ScienceCinema

    Johnson, Paul

    2016-07-12

    Using a novel device that simulates earthquakes in a laboratory setting, a Los Alamos researcher has found that seismic waves-the sounds radiated from earthquakes-can induce earthquake aftershocks, often long after a quake has subsided. The research provides insight into how earthquakes may be triggered and how they recur. Los Alamos researcher Paul Johnson and colleague Chris Marone at Penn State have discovered how wave energy can be stored in certain types of granular materials-like the type found along certain fault lines across the globe-and how this stored energy can suddenly be released as an earthquake when hit by relatively small seismic waves far beyond the traditional “aftershock zone” of a main quake. Perhaps most surprising, researchers have found that the release of energy can occur minutes, hours, or even days after the sound waves pass; the cause of the delay remains a tantalizing mystery.

  3. Testing an earthquake prediction algorithm

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kossobokov, V.G.; Healy, J.H.; Dewey, J.W.

    1997-01-01

    A test to evaluate earthquake prediction algorithms is being applied to a Russian algorithm known as M8. The M8 algorithm makes intermediate term predictions for earthquakes to occur in a large circle, based on integral counts of transient seismicity in the circle. In a retroactive prediction for the period January 1, 1985 to July 1, 1991 the algorithm as configured for the forward test would have predicted eight of ten strong earthquakes in the test area. A null hypothesis, based on random assignment of predictions, predicts eight earthquakes in 2.87% of the trials. The forward test began July 1, 1991 and will run through December 31, 1997. As of July 1, 1995, the algorithm had forward predicted five out of nine earthquakes in the test area, which success ratio would have been achieved in 53% of random trials with the null hypothesis.

  4. Earthquake Analysis.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Espinoza, Fernando

    2000-01-01

    Indicates the importance of the development of students' measurement and estimation skills. Analyzes earthquake data recorded at seismograph stations and explains how to read and modify the graphs. Presents an activity for student evaluation. (YDS)

  5. Medical complications associated with earthquakes.

    PubMed

    Bartels, Susan A; VanRooyen, Michael J

    2012-02-25

    Major earthquakes are some of the most devastating natural disasters. The epidemiology of earthquake-related injuries and mortality is unique for these disasters. Because earthquakes frequently affect populous urban areas with poor structural standards, they often result in high death rates and mass casualties with many traumatic injuries. These injuries are highly mechanical and often multisystem, requiring intensive curative medical and surgical care at a time when the local and regional medical response capacities have been at least partly disrupted. Many patients surviving blunt and penetrating trauma and crush injuries have subsequent complications that lead to additional morbidity and mortality. Here, we review and summarise earthquake-induced injuries and medical complications affecting major organ systems.

  6. Earthquake watch

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hill, M.

    1976-01-01

     When the time comes that earthquakes can be predicted accurately, what shall we do with the knowledge? This was the theme of a November 1975 conference on earthquake warning and response held in San Francisco called by Assistant Secretary of the Interior Jack W. Carlson. Invited were officials of State and local governments from Alaska, California, Hawaii, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, utah, Washington, and Wyoming and representatives of the news media. 

  7. The Apparent Periodicity of Felt Reports in the Alaskan Earthquake Record

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hafner, L. A.; McNutt, S. R.

    2004-12-01

    Felt reports for Alaskan earthquakes were found to be non-uniformly distributed throughout the year. With a predominantly tourist economy, the Alaskan population nearly triples in the summer months, possibly affecting the reporting of earthquakes in the historical record. Using published felt reports from the National Earthquake Information Center and the Alaska Earthquake Information Center, the percentage of events felt each month in central mainland Alaska were tabulated and compared between the summer and winter seasons. Earthquakes were selected from January 1, 1990 to October 31, 2002, from latitudes 58 to 70 degrees N and longitudes 140 to 160 degrees W, and depths 0 to 200 km. 408 events were felt out of a total of 695 that occurred. A number of parameters, including time of day, latitude, longitude, and magnitude, were additionally compared to specify possible limiting factors within each season. While a strong seasonal effect was not found in magnitude 4.0 ML events and greater, the months of May and June were consistently found to have the highest percentage of felt events with a steep drop occurring in the month of July. We ascribe this effect to the summer melting of the top layer of frozen ground to a depth of about 1.5 meters. Additionally, smaller events from magnitude 1.0 to 4.0 ML were also examined. 396 events were felt out of a total of 7,451 that occurred. We found that small earthquakes were felt, with a significant difference, more readily during summer months than in winter. This is likely an effect of the higher summer population of tourists and greater distribution of open businesses. Together these observations suggest that the historical Alaskan earthquake record is likely biased in favor of more frequent reporting of events occurring in summer months as opposed to winter.

  8. The Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 2 (UCERF 2)

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    ,

    2008-01-01

    California?s 35 million people live among some of the most active earthquake faults in the United States. Public safety demands credible assessments of the earthquake hazard to maintain appropriate building codes for safe construction and earthquake insurance for loss protection. Seismic hazard analysis begins with an earthquake rupture forecast?a model of probabilities that earthquakes of specified magnitudes, locations, and faulting types will occur during a specified time interval. This report describes a new earthquake rupture forecast for California developed by the 2007 Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP 2007).

  9. Predicted Surface Displacements for Scenario Earthquakes in the San Francisco Bay Region

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Murray-Moraleda, Jessica R.

    2008-01-01

    In the immediate aftermath of a major earthquake, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) will be called upon to provide information on the characteristics of the event to emergency responders and the media. One such piece of information is the expected surface displacement due to the earthquake. In conducting probabilistic hazard analyses for the San Francisco Bay Region, the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP) identified a series of scenario earthquakes involving the major faults of the region, and these were used in their 2003 report (hereafter referred to as WG03) and the recently released 2008 Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF). Here I present a collection of maps depicting the expected surface displacement resulting from those scenario earthquakes. The USGS has conducted frequent Global Positioning System (GPS) surveys throughout northern California for nearly two decades, generating a solid baseline of interseismic measurements. Following an earthquake, temporary GPS deployments at these sites will be important to augment the spatial coverage provided by continuous GPS sites for recording postseismic deformation, as will the acquisition of Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) scenes. The information provided in this report allows one to anticipate, for a given event, where the largest displacements are likely to occur. This information is valuable both for assessing the need for further spatial densification of GPS coverage before an event and prioritizing sites to resurvey and InSAR data to acquire in the immediate aftermath of the earthquake. In addition, these maps are envisioned to be a resource for scientists in communicating with emergency responders and members of the press, particularly during the time immediately after a major earthquake before displacements recorded by continuous GPS stations are available.

  10. Effects of acoustic waves on stick-slip in granular media and implications for earthquakes.

    PubMed

    Johnson, Paul A; Savage, Heather; Knuth, Matt; Gomberg, Joan; Marone, Chris

    2008-01-03

    It remains unknown how the small strains induced by seismic waves can trigger earthquakes at large distances, in some cases thousands of kilometres from the triggering earthquake, with failure often occurring long after the waves have passed. Earthquake nucleation is usually observed to take place at depths of 10-20 km, and so static overburden should be large enough to inhibit triggering by seismic-wave stress perturbations. To understand the physics of dynamic triggering better, as well as the influence of dynamic stressing on earthquake recurrence, we have conducted laboratory studies of stick-slip in granular media with and without applied acoustic vibration. Glass beads were used to simulate granular fault zone material, sheared under constant normal stress, and subject to transient or continuous perturbation by acoustic waves. Here we show that small-magnitude failure events, corresponding to triggered aftershocks, occur when applied sound-wave amplitudes exceed several microstrain. These events are frequently delayed or occur as part of a cascade of small events. Vibrations also cause large slip events to be disrupted in time relative to those without wave perturbation. The effects are observed for many large-event cycles after vibrations cease, indicating a strain memory in the granular material. Dynamic stressing of tectonic faults may play a similar role in determining the complexity of earthquake recurrence.

  11. Effects of acoustic waves on stick-slip in granular media and implications for earthquakes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Johnson, P.A.; Savage, H.; Knuth, M.; Gomberg, J.; Marone, C.

    2008-01-01

    It remains unknown how the small strains induced by seismic waves can trigger earthquakes at large distances, in some cases thousands of kilometres from the triggering earthquake, with failure often occurring long after the waves have passed. Earthquake nucleation is usually observed to take place at depths of 10-20 km, and so static overburden should be large enough to inhibit triggering by seismic-wave stress perturbations. To understand the physics of dynamic triggering better, as well as the influence of dynamic stressing on earthquake recurrence, we have conducted laboratory studies of stick-slip in granular media with and without applied acoustic vibration. Glass beads were used to simulate granular fault zone material, sheared under constant normal stress, and subject to transient or continuous perturbation by acoustic waves. Here we show that small-magnitude failure events, corresponding to triggered aftershocks, occur when applied sound-wave amplitudes exceed several microstrain. These events are frequently delayed or occur as part of a cascade of small events. Vibrations also cause large slip events to be disrupted in time relative to those without wave perturbation. The effects are observed for many large-event cycles after vibrations cease, indicating a strain memory in the granular material. Dynamic stressing of tectonic faults may play a similar role in determining the complexity of earthquake recurrence. ??2007 Nature Publishing Group.

  12. California earthquake history

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Toppozada, T.; Branum, D.

    2004-01-01

    This paper presents an overview of the advancement in our knowledge of California's earthquake history since ??? 1800, and especially during the last 30 years. We first review the basic statewide research on earthquake occurrences that was published from 1928 through 2002, to show how the current catalogs and their levels of completeness have evolved with time. Then we review some of the significant new results in specific regions of California, and some of what remains to be done. Since 1850, 167 potentially damaging earthquakes of M ??? 6 or larger have been identified in California and its border regions, indicating an average rate of 1.1 such events per year. Table I lists the earthquakes of M ??? 6 to 6.5 that were also destructive since 1812 in California and its border regions, indicating an average rate of one such event every ??? 5 years. Many of these occurred before 1932 when epicenters and magnitudes started to be determined routinely using seismographs in California. The number of these early earthquakes is probably incomplete in sparsely populated remote parts of California before ??? 1870. For example, 6 of the 7 pre-1873 events in table I are of M ??? 7, suggesting that other earthquakes of M 6.5 to 6.9 occurred but were not properly identified, or were not destructive. The epicenters and magnitudes (M) of the pre-instrumental earthquakes were determined from isoseismal maps that were based on the Modified Mercalli Intensity of shaking (MMI) at the communities that reported feeling the earthquakes. The epicenters were estimated to be in the regions of most intense shaking, and values of M were estimated from the extent of the areas shaken at various MMI levels. MMI VII or greater shaking is the threshold of damage to weak buildings. Certain areas in the regions of Los Angeles, San Francisco, and Eureka were each shaken repeatedly at MMI VII or greater at least six times since ??? 1812, as depicted by Toppozada and Branum (2002, fig. 19).

  13. Major Existence of Very Low Frequency Earthquakes in Background Seismicity Along Subduction Zone of South-western Japan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ishihara, Y.

    2003-12-01

    The condense, high quality and equalized broadband seismic network provided us to recognize the variety of seismic sources. The active volcanoes excite seismic waves with various frequency characteristics. Some cases show the long period seismic waves greater than 10 sec associates with volcanic activities. The tectonic seismic events originated at the close to trench zone are frequently lack of high frequency, greater than 1 Hz, seismic wave component. Meanwhile, the many low frequency earthquakes and tremors whose sources are not explicated are occurred in lower crust and subcrustal region. The subduction zone of Philippine Sea plate in south-western Japan is actively genetic area of low frequency earthquake group. The broadband seismic array of Japan region observed unknown long period ground motions. The seismograms are higher amplitude between 10 and 30 sec period than ground noise level. The earthquake JMA and USGS catalogues don_ft list about these long period seismograms. The arrival order of wave packet means that these events locate subduction zone around Japan. The hypocenters of unknown events are estimated by arrival times of vertical peak amplitude using the assumption that the ground motion dominates Rayleigh wave. The more detailed determination of major events is performed by combined technique for moment tensor inversion and grid search. The moment magnitude of uncatalogued event is greater than 3.5 because of the detection limitation. The largest event is distributed to about 4.5 Mw level and special event is greater than 5.0. The frequency characteristics show that source time is 7 to 20 sec by comparison with synthetic seismograms. We call these uncatalogued events _gvery low frequency earthquake_h. The hypocenters are located to two kinds of zones along the Philippine Sea subducting plate in south-western Japan. The one zone is very close to the trough. The seismicity listed by earthquake catalogues is low level in the zone and hypocenters are

  14. What caused a large number of fatalities in the Tohoku earthquake?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ando, M.; Ishida, M.; Nishikawa, Y.; Mizuki, C.; Hayashi, Y.

    2012-04-01

    The Mw9.0 earthquake caused 20,000 deaths and missing persons in northeastern Japan. 115 years prior to this event, there were three historical tsunamis that struck the region, one of which is a "tsunami earthquake" resulted with a death toll of 22,000. Since then, numerous breakwaters were constructed along the entire northeastern coasts and tsunami evacuation drills were carried out and hazard maps were distributed to local residents on numerous communities. However, despite the constructions and preparedness efforts, the March 11 Tohoku earthquake caused numerous fatalities. The strong shaking lasted three minutes or longer, thus all residents recognized that this is the strongest and longest earthquake that they had been ever experienced in their lives. The tsunami inundated an enormous area at about 560km2 over 35 cities along the coast of northeast Japan. To find out the reasons behind the high number of fatalities due to the March 11 tsunami, we interviewed 150 tsunami survivors at public evacuation shelters in 7 cities mainly in Iwate prefecture in mid-April and early June 2011. Interviews were done for about 30min or longer focused on their evacuation behaviors and those that they had observed. On the basis of the interviews, we found that residents' decisions not to evacuate immediately were partly due to or influenced by earthquake science results. Below are some of the factors that affected residents' decisions. 1. Earthquake hazard assessments turned out to be incorrect. Expected earthquake magnitudes and resultant hazards in northeastern Japan assessed and publicized by the government were significantly smaller than the actual Tohoku earthquake. 2. Many residents did not receive accurate tsunami warnings. The first tsunami warning were too small compared with the actual tsunami heights. 3. The previous frequent warnings with overestimated tsunami height influenced the behavior of the residents. 4. Many local residents above 55 years old experienced

  15. Large historical earthquakes and tsunamis in a very active tectonic rift: the Gulf of Corinth, Greece

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Triantafyllou, Ioanna; Papadopoulos, Gerassimos

    2014-05-01

    The Gulf of Corinth is an active tectonic rift controlled by E-W trending normal faults with an uplifted footwall in the south and a subsiding hangingwall with antithetic faulting in the north. Regional geodetic extension rates up to about 1.5 cm/yr have been measured, which is one of the highest for tectonic rifts in the entire Earth, while seismic slip rates up to about 1 cm/yr were estimated. Large earthquakes with magnitudes, M, up to about 7 were historically documented and instrumentally recorded. In this paper we have compiled historical documentation of earthquake and tsunami events occurring in the Corinth Gulf from the antiquity up to the present. The completeness of the events reported improves with time particularly after the 15th century. The majority of tsunamis were caused by earthquake activity although the aseismic landsliding is a relatively frequent agent for tsunami generation in Corinth Gulf. We focus to better understand the process of tsunami generation from earthquakes. To this aim we have considered the elliptical rupture zones of all the strong (M≥ 6.0) historical and instrumental earthquakes known in the Corinth Gulf. We have taken into account rupture zones determined by previous authors. However, magnitudes, M, of historical earthquakes were recalculated from a set of empirical relationships between M and seismic intensity established for earthquakes occurring in Greece during the instrumental era of seismicity. For this application the macroseismic field of each one of the earthquakes was identified and seismic intensities were assigned. Another set of empirical relationships M/L and M/W for instrumentally recorded earthquakes in the Mediterranean region was applied to calculate rupture zone dimensions; where L=rupture zone length, W=rupture zone width. The rupture zones positions were decided on the basis of the localities of the highest seismic intensities and co-seismic ground failures, if any, while the orientation of the maximum

  16. Differentially Private Frequent Subgraph Mining

    PubMed Central

    Xu, Shengzhi; Xiong, Li; Cheng, Xiang; Xiao, Ke

    2016-01-01

    Mining frequent subgraphs from a collection of input graphs is an important topic in data mining research. However, if the input graphs contain sensitive information, releasing frequent subgraphs may pose considerable threats to individual's privacy. In this paper, we study the problem of frequent subgraph mining (FGM) under the rigorous differential privacy model. We introduce a novel differentially private FGM algorithm, which is referred to as DFG. In this algorithm, we first privately identify frequent subgraphs from input graphs, and then compute the noisy support of each identified frequent subgraph. In particular, to privately identify frequent subgraphs, we present a frequent subgraph identification approach which can improve the utility of frequent subgraph identifications through candidates pruning. Moreover, to compute the noisy support of each identified frequent subgraph, we devise a lattice-based noisy support derivation approach, where a series of methods has been proposed to improve the accuracy of the noisy supports. Through formal privacy analysis, we prove that our DFG algorithm satisfies ε-differential privacy. Extensive experimental results on real datasets show that the DFG algorithm can privately find frequent subgraphs with high data utility. PMID:27616876

  17. The threat of silent earthquakes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Cervelli, Peter

    2004-01-01

    Not all earthquakes shake the ground. The so-called silent types are forcing scientists to rethink their understanding of the way quake-prone faults behave. In rare instances, silent earthquakes that occur along the flakes of seaside volcanoes may cascade into monstrous landslides that crash into the sea and trigger towering tsunamis. Silent earthquakes that take place within fault zones created by one tectonic plate diving under another may increase the chance of ground-shaking shocks. In other locations, however, silent slip may decrease the likelihood of destructive quakes, because they release stress along faults that might otherwise seem ready to snap.

  18. Remotely triggered earthquakes following moderate main shocks

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hough, S.E.

    2007-01-01

    Since 1992, remotely triggered earthquakes have been identified following large (M > 7) earthquakes in California as well as in other regions. These events, which occur at much greater distances than classic aftershocks, occur predominantly in active geothermal or volcanic regions, leading to theories that the earthquakes are triggered when passing seismic waves cause disruptions in magmatic or other fluid systems. In this paper, I focus on observations of remotely triggered earthquakes following moderate main shocks in diverse tectonic settings. I summarize evidence that remotely triggered earthquakes occur commonly in mid-continent and collisional zones. This evidence is derived from analysis of both historic earthquake sequences and from instrumentally recorded M5-6 earthquakes in eastern Canada. The latter analysis suggests that, while remotely triggered earthquakes do not occur pervasively following moderate earthquakes in eastern North America, a low level of triggering often does occur at distances beyond conventional aftershock zones. The inferred triggered events occur at the distances at which SmS waves are known to significantly increase ground motions. A similar result was found for 28 recent M5.3-7.1 earthquakes in California. In California, seismicity is found to increase on average to a distance of at least 200 km following moderate main shocks. This supports the conclusion that, even at distances of ???100 km, dynamic stress changes control the occurrence of triggered events. There are two explanations that can account for the occurrence of remotely triggered earthquakes in intraplate settings: (1) they occur at local zones of weakness, or (2) they occur in zones of local stress concentration. ?? 2007 The Geological Society of America.

  19. USGS Training in Afghanistan: Modern Earthquake Hazards Assessments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Medlin, J. D.; Garthwaite, M.; Holzer, T.; McGarr, A.; Bohannon, R.; Bergen, K.; Vincent, T.

    2007-05-01

    Afghanistan is located in a tectonically active region where ongoing deformation has generated rugged mountainous terrain, and where large earthquakes occur frequently. These earthquakes can present a significant hazard, not only from strong ground shaking, but also from liquefaction and extensive land sliding. The magnitude 6.1 earthquake of March 25, 2002 highlighted the vulnerability of Afghanistan to such hazards, and resulted in over 1000 fatalities. The USGS has provided the first of a series of Earth Science training courses to the Afghan Geological Survey (AGS). This course was concerned with modern earthquake hazard assessments, and is an integral part of a larger USGS effort to provide a comprehensive seismic-hazard assessment for Afghanistan. Funding for these courses is provided by the US Agency for International Development Afghanistan Reconstruction Program. The particular focus of this training course, held December 2-6, 2006 in Kabul, was on providing a background in the seismological and geological methods relevant to preparing for future earthquakes. Topics included identifying active faults, modern tectonic theory, geotechnical measurements of near-surface materials, and strong-motion seismology. With this background, participants may now be expected to educate other members of the community and be actively involved in earthquake hazard assessments themselves. The December, 2006, training course was taught by four lecturers, with all lectures and slides being presented in English and translated into Dari. Copies of the lectures were provided to the students in both hardcopy and digital formats. Class participants included many of the section leaders from within the AGS who have backgrounds in geology, geophysics, and engineering. Two additional training sessions are planned for 2007, the first entitled "Modern Concepts in Geology and Mineral Resource Assessments," and the second entitled "Applied Geophysics for Mineral Resource Assessments."

  20. Earthquake statistics, spatiotemporal distribution of foci and source mechanisms - a key to understanding of the West Bohemia/Vogtland earthquake swarms

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Horálek, Josef; Čermáková, Hana; Fischer, Tomáš

    2016-04-01

    Earthquake swarms are sequences of numerous events closely clustered in space and time and do not have a single dominant mainshock. A few of the largest events in a swarm reach similar magnitudes and usually occur throughout the course of the earthquake sequence. These attributes differentiate earthquake swarms from ordinary mainshock-aftershock sequences. Earthquake swarms occur worldwide, in diverse geological units. The swarms typically accompany volcanic activity at margins of the tectonic plate but also occur in intracontinental areas where strain from tectonic-plate movement is small. The origin of earthquake swarms is still unclear. The swarms typically occur at the plate margins but also in intracontinental areas. West Bohemia-Vogtland represents one of the most active intraplate earthquake-swarm areas in Europe. It is characterised by a frequent reoccurrence of ML < 4.0 swarms and by high activity of crustal fluids. West Bohemia-Vogtland is one of the most active intraplate earthquake-swarm areas in Europe which also exhibits high activity of crustal fluids. The Nový Kostel focal zone (NK) dominates the recent seismicity, there were swarms in 1997, 2000, 2008 and 20011, and a striking non-swarm activity (mainshock-aftershock sequences) up to magnitude ML= 4.5 in May to August 2014. The swarms and the 2014 mainshock-aftershock sequences are located close to each other at depths between 6 and 13 km. The frequency-magnitude distributions of all the swarms show bimodal-like character: the most events obey the b-value = 1.0 distribution, but a group of the largest events depart significantly from it. All the ML > 2.8 swarm events are located in a few dense clusters which implies step by step rupturing of one or a few asperities during the individual swarms. The source mechanism patters (moment-tensor description, MT) of the individual swarms indicate several families of the mechanisms, which fit well geometry of respective fault segments. MTs of the most

  1. Frequent Itemset Hiding Algorithm Using Frequent Pattern Tree Approach

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Alnatsheh, Rami

    2012-01-01

    A problem that has been the focus of much recent research in privacy preserving data-mining is the frequent itemset hiding (FIH) problem. Identifying itemsets that appear together frequently in customer transactions is a common task in association rule mining. Organizations that share data with business partners may consider some of the frequent…

  2. Streamflow and water well responses to earthquakes.

    PubMed

    Montgomery, David R; Manga, Michael

    2003-06-27

    Earthquake-induced crustal deformation and ground shaking can alter stream flow and water levels in wells through consolidation of surficial deposits, fracturing of solid rocks, aquifer deformation, and the clearing of fracture-filling material. Although local conditions affect the type and amplitude of response, a compilation of reported observations of hydrological response to earthquakes indicates that the maximum distance to which changes in stream flow and water levels in wells have been reported is related to earthquake magnitude. Detectable streamflow changes occur in areas within tens to hundreds of kilometers of the epicenter, whereas changes in groundwater levels in wells can occur hundreds to thousands of kilometers from earthquake epicenters.

  3. What Can Sounds Tell Us About Earthquake Interactions?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aiken, C.; Peng, Z.

    2012-12-01

    It is important not only for seismologists but also for educators to effectively convey information about earthquakes and the influences earthquakes can have on each other. Recent studies using auditory display [e.g. Kilb et al., 2012; Peng et al. 2012] have depicted catastrophic earthquakes and the effects large earthquakes can have on other parts of the world. Auditory display of earthquakes, which combines static images with time-compressed sound of recorded seismic data, is a new approach to disseminating information to a general audience about earthquakes and earthquake interactions. Earthquake interactions are influential to understanding the underlying physics of earthquakes and other seismic phenomena such as tremors in addition to their source characteristics (e.g. frequency contents, amplitudes). Earthquake interactions can include, for example, a large, shallow earthquake followed by increased seismicity around the mainshock rupture (i.e. aftershocks) or even a large earthquake triggering earthquakes or tremors several hundreds to thousands of kilometers away [Hill and Prejean, 2007; Peng and Gomberg, 2010]. We use standard tools like MATLAB, QuickTime Pro, and Python to produce animations that illustrate earthquake interactions. Our efforts are focused on producing animations that depict cross-section (side) views of tremors triggered along the San Andreas Fault by distant earthquakes, as well as map (bird's eye) views of mainshock-aftershock sequences such as the 2011/08/23 Mw5.8 Virginia earthquake sequence. These examples of earthquake interactions include sonifying earthquake and tremor catalogs as musical notes (e.g. piano keys) as well as audifying seismic data using time-compression. Our overall goal is to use auditory display to invigorate a general interest in earthquake seismology that leads to the understanding of how earthquakes occur, how earthquakes influence one another as well as tremors, and what the musical properties of these

  4. ERTS-1, earthquakes, and tectonic evolution in Alaska

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gedney, L.; Vanwormer, J.

    1974-01-01

    In comparing seismicity patterns in Alaska with ERTS-1 imagery, it is striking to see the frequency with which earthquake epicenters fall on, or near, lineaments visible on the imagery. Often these lineaments prove to be tectonics faults which have been mapped in the field. But equally as often, existing geologic and tectonic maps show no evidence of these features. The remoteness and inaccessibility of most of Alaska is responsible, in large part, for the inadequacy of the mapping. ERTS-1 imagery is filling a vital need in providing much of the missing information, and is pointing out many areas of potential earthquake hazard. Earthquakes in central and south-central Alaska result when the northeastern corner of the north Pacific lithospheric plate underthrusts the continent. North of Mt. McKinley, the seismicity is continental in nature and of shallow origin, with earthquakes occurring on lineaments, and frequently at intersections of lineaments. The shallower events tend to align themselves with lineaments visible on the imagery.

  5. Historic and instrumental earthquake records of Korean Peninsula

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jeon, Y.

    2012-12-01

    NIMR(National Institute of Meteorological Researches) published historic earthquake catalogs of Korean Peninsula recently. This catalog contains 2161 events recorded at historic documents such as annals of the Jo-seon dynasty and the chronicles of 3 countries. Among those events, 440 earthquakes classified as intensity greater than 5(Korea intensity scale) and 15 earthquakes having intensity between 8 to 10(Korea intensity scale) are interpreted as damaging earthquake. Kyung-Ju earthquake occurred at 779 was the greatest one with M 6.7 and killed 100 people written by historic records. Several records contained the information of damage and casualties from possible Tsunami event. The purpose of making earthquake catalog is to define potential earthquake hazard of Korean Peninsula. As a result of collecting earthquake records for last 2000 years, the Intensity population distribution of historic earthquake marked similar to that of present instrumental earthquake record of KMA bulletin.

  6. Revised seismic history of the El Pilar fault, Northeastern Venezuela, from the Cariaco 1997 earthquake and recent preliminary paleoseismic results

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Audemard, Franck A.

    2007-07-01

    In light of the July 9, 1997, Cariaco earthquake, it is clearly understood now that damage in the city of Cumaná located in northeastern Venezuela and frequently destroyed by the largest earthquakes since the first recorded event in 1530 is strongly enhanced by poor soil conditions that, in turn, are responsible for site amplification and widespread earthquake-induced effects. Therefore, most previous macroseismic studies of historical earthquakes must be revaluated because those localized high-intensity values at Cumaná surely led to the misestimation of past epicenters. Preliminary paleoseismic results, gathered at three exploratory trenches dug across the surface break of the Cariaco 1997 earthquake in 1998, allow us to associate the 1684 earthquake with this recently ruptured fault segment that extends between the towns of San Antonio del Golfo and Río Casanay (roughly between the two gulfs of Cariaco and Paria, state of Sucre). Other major results from the reassessment of the seismic history of this fault are: (a) the 1766 event seems to have generated in a different source to the El Pilar fault because the size of the felt area suggests that it is an intermediate-depth earthquake; (b) damage to Cumaná produced by the 1797 event suggests that this was a local earthquake, perhaps equivalent to the 1929 earthquake, which ruptured for some 30 km just east of Cumaná into the Gulf of Cariaco; and (c) seismogenic association of the 1530 and 1853 earthquakes still remains unclear but it is very likely that these ruptures occurred offshore, as suggested by the rather large tsunami waves that both events have generated, placing their hypocenters west of Cumaná in the Cariaco Trough. This reassessment also sheds light into the El Pilar fault segmentation and the behavior of its seismogenic barriers through time.

  7. Earthquake Scaling, Simulation and Forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sachs, Michael Karl

    Earthquakes are among the most devastating natural events faced by society. In 2011, just two events, the magnitude 6.3 earthquake in Christcurch New Zealand on February 22, and the magnitude 9.0 Tohoku earthquake off the coast of Japan on March 11, caused a combined total of $226 billion in economic losses. Over the last decade, 791,721 deaths were caused by earthquakes. Yet, despite their impact, our ability to accurately predict when earthquakes will occur is limited. This is due, in large part, to the fact that the fault systems that produce earthquakes are non-linear. The result being that very small differences in the systems now result in very big differences in the future, making forecasting difficult. In spite of this, there are patterns that exist in earthquake data. These patterns are often in the form of frequency-magnitude scaling relations that relate the number of smaller events observed to the number of larger events observed. In many cases these scaling relations show consistent behavior over a wide range of scales. This consistency forms the basis of most forecasting techniques. However, the utility of these scaling relations is limited by the size of the earthquake catalogs which, especially in the case of large events, are fairly small and limited to a few 100 years of events. In this dissertation I discuss three areas of earthquake science. The first is an overview of scaling behavior in a variety of complex systems, both models and natural systems. The focus of this area is to understand how this scaling behavior breaks down. The second is a description of the development and testing of an earthquake simulator called Virtual California designed to extend the observed catalog of earthquakes in California. This simulator uses novel techniques borrowed from statistical physics to enable the modeling of large fault systems over long periods of time. The third is an evaluation of existing earthquake forecasts, which focuses on the Regional

  8. Earthquake and tsunami forecasts: Relation of slow slip events to subsequent earthquake rupture

    PubMed Central

    Dixon, Timothy H.; Jiang, Yan; Malservisi, Rocco; McCaffrey, Robert; Voss, Nicholas; Protti, Marino; Gonzalez, Victor

    2014-01-01

    The 5 September 2012 Mw 7.6 earthquake on the Costa Rica subduction plate boundary followed a 62-y interseismic period. High-precision GPS recorded numerous slow slip events (SSEs) in the decade leading up to the earthquake, both up-dip and down-dip of seismic rupture. Deeper SSEs were larger than shallower ones and, if characteristic of the interseismic period, release most locking down-dip of the earthquake, limiting down-dip rupture and earthquake magnitude. Shallower SSEs were smaller, accounting for some but not all interseismic locking. One SSE occurred several months before the earthquake, but changes in Mohr–Coulomb failure stress were probably too small to trigger the earthquake. Because many SSEs have occurred without subsequent rupture, their individual predictive value is limited, but taken together they released a significant amount of accumulated interseismic strain before the earthquake, effectively defining the area of subsequent seismic rupture (rupture did not occur where slow slip was common). Because earthquake magnitude depends on rupture area, this has important implications for earthquake hazard assessment. Specifically, if this behavior is representative of future earthquake cycles and other subduction zones, it implies that monitoring SSEs, including shallow up-dip events that lie offshore, could lead to accurate forecasts of earthquake magnitude and tsunami potential. PMID:25404327

  9. Results of the Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models (RELM) test of earthquake forecasts in California.

    PubMed

    Lee, Ya-Ting; Turcotte, Donald L; Holliday, James R; Sachs, Michael K; Rundle, John B; Chen, Chien-Chih; Tiampo, Kristy F

    2011-10-04

    The Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models (RELM) test of earthquake forecasts in California was the first competitive evaluation of forecasts of future earthquake occurrence. Participants submitted expected probabilities of occurrence of M ≥ 4.95 earthquakes in 0.1° × 0.1° cells for the period 1 January 1, 2006, to December 31, 2010. Probabilities were submitted for 7,682 cells in California and adjacent regions. During this period, 31 M ≥ 4.95 earthquakes occurred in the test region. These earthquakes occurred in 22 test cells. This seismic activity was dominated by earthquakes associated with the M = 7.2, April 4, 2010, El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake in northern Mexico. This earthquake occurred in the test region, and 16 of the other 30 earthquakes in the test region could be associated with it. Nine complete forecasts were submitted by six participants. In this paper, we present the forecasts in a way that allows the reader to evaluate which forecast is the most "successful" in terms of the locations of future earthquakes. We conclude that the RELM test was a success and suggest ways in which the results can be used to improve future forecasts.

  10. Earthquake and tsunami forecasts: relation of slow slip events to subsequent earthquake rupture.

    PubMed

    Dixon, Timothy H; Jiang, Yan; Malservisi, Rocco; McCaffrey, Robert; Voss, Nicholas; Protti, Marino; Gonzalez, Victor

    2014-12-02

    The 5 September 2012 M(w) 7.6 earthquake on the Costa Rica subduction plate boundary followed a 62-y interseismic period. High-precision GPS recorded numerous slow slip events (SSEs) in the decade leading up to the earthquake, both up-dip and down-dip of seismic rupture. Deeper SSEs were larger than shallower ones and, if characteristic of the interseismic period, release most locking down-dip of the earthquake, limiting down-dip rupture and earthquake magnitude. Shallower SSEs were smaller, accounting for some but not all interseismic locking. One SSE occurred several months before the earthquake, but changes in Mohr-Coulomb failure stress were probably too small to trigger the earthquake. Because many SSEs have occurred without subsequent rupture, their individual predictive value is limited, but taken together they released a significant amount of accumulated interseismic strain before the earthquake, effectively defining the area of subsequent seismic rupture (rupture did not occur where slow slip was common). Because earthquake magnitude depends on rupture area, this has important implications for earthquake hazard assessment. Specifically, if this behavior is representative of future earthquake cycles and other subduction zones, it implies that monitoring SSEs, including shallow up-dip events that lie offshore, could lead to accurate forecasts of earthquake magnitude and tsunami potential.

  11. Localization of intermediate-term earthquake prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kossobokov, V. G.; Keilis-Borok, V. I.; Smith, S. W.

    1990-11-01

    Relative seismic quiescence within a region which has already been diagnosed as having entered a "Time of Increased Probability" (TIP) for the occurrence of a strong earthquake can be used to refine the locality in which the earthquake may be expected to occur. A simple algorithm with parameters fitted from the data in Northern California preceding the 1980 magnitude 7.0 earthquake offshore from Eureka depicts relative quiescence within the region of a TTP. The procedure was tested, without readaptation of parameters, on 17 other strong earthquake occurrences in North America, Japan, and Eurasia, most of which were in regions for which a TIP had been previously diagnosed. The localization algorithm successfully outlined a region within which the subsequent earthquake occurred for 16 of these 17 strong earthquakes. The area of prediction in each case was reduced significantly, ranging between 7% and 25% of the total area covered by the TIP.

  12. Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ) about Extreme Heat

    MedlinePlus

    ... About CDC.gov . Natural Disasters and Severe Weather Earthquakes Being Prepared Emergency Supplies Home Hazards Indoor Safety ... Matters What's New Preparation & Planning Disasters & Severe Weather Earthquakes Extreme Heat Floods Hurricanes Landslides Tornadoes Tsunamis Volcanoes ...

  13. Predecessors of the giant 1960 Chile earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Cisternas, M.; Atwater, B.F.; Torrejon, F.; Sawai, Y.; Machuca, G.; Lagos, M.; Eipert, A.; Youlton, C.; Salgado, I.; Kamataki, T.; Shishikura, M.; Rajendran, C.P.; Malik, J.K.; Rizal, Y.; Husni, M.

    2005-01-01

    It is commonly thought that the longer the time since last earthquake, the larger the next earthquake's slip will be. But this logical predictor of earthquake size, unsuccessful for large earthquakes on a strike-slip fault, fails also with the giant 1960 Chile earthquake of magnitude 9.5 (ref. 3). Although the time since the preceding earthquake spanned 123 years (refs 4, 5), the estimated slip in 1960, which occurred on a fault between the Nazca and South American tectonic plates, equalled 250-350 years' worth of the plate motion. Thus the average interval between such giant earthquakes on this fault should span several centuries. Here we present evidence that such long intervals were indeed typical of the last two millennia. We use buried soils and sand layers as records of tectonic subsidence and tsunami inundation at an estuary midway along the 1960 rupture. In these records, the 1960 earthquake ended a recurrence interval that had begun almost four centuries before, with an earthquake documented by Spanish conquistadors in 1575. Two later earthquakes, in 1737 and 1837, produced little if any subsidence or tsunami at the estuary and they therefore probably left the fault partly loaded with accumulated plate motion that the 1960 earthquake then expended. ?? 2005 Nature Publishing Group.

  14. Predecessors of the giant 1960 Chile earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cisternas, Marco; Atwater, Brian F.; Torrejón, Fernando; Sawai, Yuki; Machuca, Gonzalo; Lagos, Marcelo; Eipert, Annaliese; Youlton, Cristián; Salgado, Ignacio; Kamataki, Takanobu; Shishikura, Masanobu; Rajendran, C. P.; Malik, Javed K.; Rizal, Yan; Husni, Muhammad

    2005-09-01

    It is commonly thought that the longer the time since last earthquake, the larger the next earthquake's slip will be. But this logical predictor of earthquake size, unsuccessful for large earthquakes on a strike-slip fault, fails also with the giant 1960 Chile earthquake of magnitude 9.5 (ref. 3). Although the time since the preceding earthquake spanned 123years (refs 4, 5), the estimated slip in 1960, which occurred on a fault between the Nazca and South American tectonic plates, equalled 250-350years' worth of the plate motion. Thus the average interval between such giant earthquakes on this fault should span several centuries. Here we present evidence that such long intervals were indeed typical of the last two millennia. We use buried soils and sand layers as records of tectonic subsidence and tsunami inundation at an estuary midway along the 1960 rupture. In these records, the 1960 earthquake ended a recurrence interval that had begun almost four centuries before, with an earthquake documented by Spanish conquistadors in 1575. Two later earthquakes, in 1737 and 1837, produced little if any subsidence or tsunami at the estuary and they therefore probably left the fault partly loaded with accumulated plate motion that the 1960 earthquake then expended.

  15. How Should Disaster Base Hospitals Prepare for Dialysis Therapy after Earthquakes? Introduction of Double Water Piping Circuits Provided by Well Water System.

    PubMed

    Ikegaya, Naoki; Seki, George; Ohta, Nobutaka

    2016-01-01

    After earthquakes, continuing dialysis for patients with ESRD and patients suffering from crush syndrome is the serious problem. In this paper, we analyzed the failure of the provision of dialysis services observed in recent disasters and discussed how to prepare for disasters to continue dialysis therapy. Japan has frequently experienced devastating earthquakes. A lot of dialysis centers could not continue dialysis treatment owing to damage caused by these earthquakes. The survey by Japanese Society for Dialysis Treatment (JSDT) after the Great East Japan Earthquake in 2011 showed that failure of lifelines such as electric power and water supply was the leading cause of the malfunction of dialysis treatment. Our hospital is located in Shizuoka Prefecture, where one of the biggest earthquakes is predicted to occur in the near future. In addition to reconstructing earthquake-resistant buildings and facilities, we therefore have adopted double electric and water lifelines by introducing emergency generators and well water supply systems. It is very important to inform politicians, bureaucrats, and local water departments that dialysis treatment, a life sustaining therapy for patients with end stage renal diseases, requires a large amount of water. We cannot prevent an earthquake but can curb the extent of a disaster by preparing for earthquakes.

  16. How Should Disaster Base Hospitals Prepare for Dialysis Therapy after Earthquakes? Introduction of Double Water Piping Circuits Provided by Well Water System

    PubMed Central

    Ohta, Nobutaka

    2016-01-01

    After earthquakes, continuing dialysis for patients with ESRD and patients suffering from crush syndrome is the serious problem. In this paper, we analyzed the failure of the provision of dialysis services observed in recent disasters and discussed how to prepare for disasters to continue dialysis therapy. Japan has frequently experienced devastating earthquakes. A lot of dialysis centers could not continue dialysis treatment owing to damage caused by these earthquakes. The survey by Japanese Society for Dialysis Treatment (JSDT) after the Great East Japan Earthquake in 2011 showed that failure of lifelines such as electric power and water supply was the leading cause of the malfunction of dialysis treatment. Our hospital is located in Shizuoka Prefecture, where one of the biggest earthquakes is predicted to occur in the near future. In addition to reconstructing earthquake-resistant buildings and facilities, we therefore have adopted double electric and water lifelines by introducing emergency generators and well water supply systems. It is very important to inform politicians, bureaucrats, and local water departments that dialysis treatment, a life sustaining therapy for patients with end stage renal diseases, requires a large amount of water. We cannot prevent an earthquake but can curb the extent of a disaster by preparing for earthquakes. PMID:27999820

  17. Earthquakes and plate tectonics.

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Spall, H.

    1982-01-01

    Earthquakes occur at the following three kinds of plate boundary: ocean ridges where the plates are pulled apart, margins where the plates scrape past one another, and margins where one plate is thrust under the other. Thus, we can predict the general regions on the earth's surface where we can expect large earthquakes in the future. We know that each year about 140 earthquakes of magnitude 6 or greater will occur within this area which is 10% of the earth's surface. But on a worldwide basis we cannot say with much accuracy when these events will occur. The reason is that the processes in plate tectonics have been going on for millions of years. Averaged over this interval, plate motions amount to several mm per year. But at any instant in geologic time, for example the year 1982, we do not know, exactly where we are in the worldwide cycle of strain build-up and strain release. Only by monitoring the stress and strain in small areas, for instance, the San Andreas fault, in great detail can we hope to predict when renewed activity in that part of the plate tectonics arena is likely to take place. -from Author

  18. The 1979 Imperial Valley. California, earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Spall, Henry

    1982-01-01

    On October 15, 1979, the largest earthquake in California in the last quarter century occurred on the imperial fault near the international boundary between the United States and Mexico.  The earthquake measured 6.6 on the Richter scale and was felt from Las Vegas, Nevada, to northern Mexico.  Surface movement on four fault zones accompanied the earthquake and caused approximately $30 million in damage.

  19. Update earthquake risk assessment in Cairo, Egypt

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Badawy, Ahmed; Korrat, Ibrahim; El-Hadidy, Mahmoud; Gaber, Hanan

    2016-12-01

    The Cairo earthquake (12 October 1992; m b = 5.8) is still and after 25 years one of the most painful events and is dug into the Egyptians memory. This is not due to the strength of the earthquake but due to the accompanied losses and damages (561 dead; 10,000 injured and 3000 families lost their homes). Nowadays, the most frequent and important question that should rise is "what if this earthquake is repeated today." In this study, we simulate the same size earthquake (12 October 1992) ground motion shaking and the consequent social-economic impacts in terms of losses and damages. Seismic hazard, earthquake catalogs, soil types, demographics, and building inventories were integrated into HAZUS-MH to produce a sound earthquake risk assessment for Cairo including economic and social losses. Generally, the earthquake risk assessment clearly indicates that "the losses and damages may be increased twice or three times" in Cairo compared to the 1992 earthquake. The earthquake risk profile reveals that five districts (Al-Sahel, El Basateen, Dar El-Salam, Gharb, and Madinat Nasr sharq) lie in high seismic risks, and three districts (Manshiyat Naser, El-Waily, and Wassat (center)) are in low seismic risk level. Moreover, the building damage estimations reflect that Gharb is the highest vulnerable district. The analysis shows that the Cairo urban area faces high risk. Deteriorating buildings and infrastructure make the city particularly vulnerable to earthquake risks. For instance, more than 90 % of the estimated buildings damages are concentrated within the most densely populated (El Basateen, Dar El-Salam, Gharb, and Madinat Nasr Gharb) districts. Moreover, about 75 % of casualties are in the same districts. Actually, an earthquake risk assessment for Cairo represents a crucial application of the HAZUS earthquake loss estimation model for risk management. Finally, for mitigation, risk reduction, and to improve the seismic performance of structures and assure life safety

  20. Earthquake engineering research: 1982

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    The Committee on Earthquake Engineering Research addressed two questions: What progress has research produced in earthquake engineering and which elements of the problem should future earthquake engineering pursue. It examined and reported in separate chapters of the report: Applications of Past Research, Assessment of Earthquake Hazard, Earthquake Ground Motion, Soil Mechanics and Earth Structures, Analytical and Experimental Structural Dynamics, Earthquake Design of Structures, Seismic Interaction of Structures and Fluids, Social and Economic Aspects, Earthquake Engineering Education, Research in Japan.

  1. Earthquake Testing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1979-01-01

    During NASA's Apollo program, it was necessary to subject the mammoth Saturn V launch vehicle to extremely forceful vibrations to assure the moonbooster's structural integrity in flight. Marshall Space Flight Center assigned vibration testing to a contractor, the Scientific Services and Systems Group of Wyle Laboratories, Norco, California. Wyle-3S, as the group is known, built a large facility at Huntsville, Alabama, and equipped it with an enormously forceful shock and vibration system to simulate the liftoff stresses the Saturn V would encounter. Saturn V is no longer in service, but Wyle-3S has found spinoff utility for its vibration facility. It is now being used to simulate earthquake effects on various kinds of equipment, principally equipment intended for use in nuclear power generation. Government regulations require that such equipment demonstrate its ability to survive earthquake conditions. In upper left photo, Wyle3S is preparing to conduct an earthquake test on a 25ton diesel generator built by Atlas Polar Company, Ltd., Toronto, Canada, for emergency use in a Canadian nuclear power plant. Being readied for test in the lower left photo is a large circuit breaker to be used by Duke Power Company, Charlotte, North Carolina. Electro-hydraulic and electro-dynamic shakers in and around the pit simulate earthquake forces.

  2. Two models for earthquake forerunners

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Mjachkin, V.I.; Brace, W.F.; Sobolev, G.A.; Dieterich, J.H.

    1975-01-01

    Similar precursory phenomena have been observed before earthquakes in the United States, the Soviet Union, Japan, and China. Two quite different physical models are used to explain these phenomena. According to a model developed by US seismologists, the so-called dilatancy diffusion model, the earthquake occurs near maximum stress, following a period of dilatant crack expansion. Diffusion of water in and out of the dilatant volume is required to explain the recovery of seismic velocity before the earthquake. According to a model developed by Soviet scientists growth of cracks is also involved but diffusion of water in and out of the focal region is not required. With this model, the earthquake is assumed to occur during a period of falling stress and recovery of velocity here is due to crack closure as stress relaxes. In general, the dilatancy diffusion model gives a peaked precursor form, whereas the dry model gives a bay form, in which recovery is well under way before the earthquake. A number of field observations should help to distinguish between the two models: study of post-earthquake recovery, time variation of stress and pore pressure in the focal region, the occurrence of pre-existing faults, and any changes in direction of precursory phenomena during the anomalous period. ?? 1975 Birkha??user Verlag.

  3. Mapping Tectonic Stress Using Earthquakes

    SciTech Connect

    Arnold, Richard; Townend, John; Vignaux, Tony

    2005-11-23

    An earthquakes occurs when the forces acting on a fault overcome its intrinsic strength and cause it to slip abruptly. Understanding more specifically why earthquakes occur at particular locations and times is complicated because in many cases we do not know what these forces actually are, or indeed what processes ultimately trigger slip. The goal of this study is to develop, test, and implement a Bayesian method of reliably determining tectonic stresses using the most abundant stress gauges available - earthquakes themselves.Existing algorithms produce reasonable estimates of the principal stress directions, but yield unreliable error bounds as a consequence of the generally weak constraint on stress imposed by any single earthquake, observational errors, and an unavoidable ambiguity between the fault normal and the slip vector.A statistical treatment of the problem can take into account observational errors, combine data from multiple earthquakes in a consistent manner, and provide realistic error bounds on the estimated principal stress directions.We have developed a realistic physical framework for modelling multiple earthquakes and show how the strong physical and geometrical constraints present in this problem allow inference to be made about the orientation of the principal axes of stress in the earth's crust.

  4. Climate Leadership Awards Frequent Questions

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Provides answers to frequently asked questions regarding the Climate Leadership Awards, sponsored by EPA's Center for Corporate Climate Leadership with co-sponsorship from the Center for Climate and Energy Solutions and The Climate Registry.

  5. Frequent Questions About Universal Waste

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Frequent questions such as Who is affected by the universal waste regulations? What is “mercury-containing equipment”? How are waste batteries managed under universal waste? How are waste pesticides managed under universal waste?

  6. Earthquakes, May-June, 1992

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Person, Waverly J.

    1992-01-01

    The months of May and June were very active in terms of earthquake occurrence. Six major earthquakes (7.0occurred during this reporting period. These earthquakes included a magnitude 7.1 in Papua New Guinea on May 15, a magnitude 7.1 followed by a magnitude 7.5 in the Philippine Islands on May 17, a magnitude 7.0 in the Cuba region on May 25, and a magnitude 7.3 in the Santa Cruz Islands of the Pacific on May 27. In the United States, a magnitude 7.6 earthquake struck in southern California on June 28 followed by a magnitude 6.7 quake about three hours later.

  7. Earthquake tectonics

    SciTech Connect

    Steward, R.F. )

    1991-02-01

    Earthquakes release a tremendous amount of energy into the subsurface in the form of seismic waves. The seismic wave energy of the San Francisco 1906 (M = 8.2) earthquake was equivalent to over 8 billion tons of TNT (3.3 {times} 10{sup 19} joules). Four basic wave types are propagated form seismic sources, two non-rotational and two rotational. As opposed to the non-rotational R and SH waves, the rotational compressional (RC) and rotational shear (RS) waves carry the bulk of the energy from a seismic source. RC wavefronts propagate in the subsurface and refract similarly to P waves, but are considerably slower. RC waves are critically refracted beneath the air surface interface at velocities less than the velocity of sound in air because they refract at the velocity of sound in air minus the retrograde particle velocity at the top of the wave. They propagate at tsunami waves in the open ocean, and produce loud sounds on land that are heard by humans and animals during earthquakes. The energy of the RS wave dwarfs that of the P, SH, and even the RC wave. The RS wave is the same as what is currently called the S wave in earthquake seismology, and produces both folding and strike-slip faulting at considerable distances from the epicenter. RC and RS waves, propagated during earthquakes from the Santa Ynez fault and a right-slip fault on trend with the Red Mountain fault, produced the Santa Ynez Mountains in California beginning in the middle Pliocene and continuing until the present.

  8. Patterns of Seismicity Characterizing the Earthquake Cycle

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rundle, J. B.; Turcotte, D. L.; Yoder, M. R.; Holliday, J. R.; Schultz, K.; Wilson, J. M.; Donnellan, A.; Grant Ludwig, L.

    2015-12-01

    A number of methods to calculate probabilities of major earthquakes have recently been proposed. Most of these methods depend upon understanding patterns of small earthquakes preceding the large events. For example, the Natural Time Weibull method for earthquake forecasting (see www.openhazards.com) is based on the assumption that large earthquakes complete the Gutenberg-Richter scaling relation defined by the smallest earthquakes. Here we examine the scaling patterns of small earthquakes having magnitudes between cycles of large earthquakes. For example, in the region of California-Nevada between longitudes -130 to -114 degrees W, and latitudes 32 to 45 degrees North, we find 79 earthquakes having magnitudes M6 during the time interval 1933 - present, culminating with the most recent event, the M6.0 Napa, California earthquake of August 24, 2014. Thus we have 78 complete cycles of large earthquakes in this region. After compiling and stacking the smaller events occurring between the large events, we find a characteristic pattern of scaling for the smaller events. This pattern shows a scaling relation for the smallest earthquakes up to about 3earthquakes for 4.5earthquake having M~6.4. In addition, statistics indicate that departure of the successive earthquake cycles from their average pattern can be characterized by Coefficients of Variability and other measures. We discuss these ideas and apply them not only to California, but also to other seismically active areas in the world

  9. Long Period Earthquakes Beneath California's Young and Restless Volcanoes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pitt, A. M.; Dawson, P. B.; Shelly, D. R.; Hill, D. P.; Mangan, M.

    2013-12-01

    The newly established USGS California Volcano Observatory has the broad responsibility of monitoring and assessing hazards at California's potentially threatening volcanoes, most notably Mount Shasta, Medicine Lake, Clear Lake Volcanic Field, and Lassen Volcanic Center in northern California; and Long Valley Caldera, Mammoth Mountain, and Mono-Inyo Craters in east-central California. Volcanic eruptions occur in California about as frequently as the largest San Andreas Fault Zone earthquakes-more than ten eruptions have occurred in the last 1,000 years, most recently at Lassen Peak (1666 C.E. and 1914-1917 C.E.) and Mono-Inyo Craters (c. 1700 C.E.). The Long Valley region (Long Valley caldera and Mammoth Mountain) underwent several episodes of heightened unrest over the last three decades, including intense swarms of volcano-tectonic (VT) earthquakes, rapid caldera uplift, and hazardous CO2 emissions. Both Medicine Lake and Lassen are subsiding at appreciable rates, and along with Clear Lake, Long Valley Caldera, and Mammoth Mountain, sporadically experience long period (LP) earthquakes related to migration of magmatic or hydrothermal fluids. Worldwide, the last two decades have shown the importance of tracking LP earthquakes beneath young volcanic systems, as they often provide indication of impending unrest or eruption. Herein we document the occurrence of LP earthquakes at several of California's young volcanoes, updating a previous study published in Pitt et al., 2002, SRL. All events were detected and located using data from stations within the Northern California Seismic Network (NCSN). Event detection was spatially and temporally uneven across the NCSN in the 1980s and 1990s, but additional stations, adoption of the Earthworm processing system, and heightened vigilance by seismologists have improved the catalog over the last decade. LP earthquakes are now relatively well-recorded under Lassen (~150 events since 2000), Clear Lake (~60 events), Mammoth Mountain

  10. The Suruga-Bay earthquake of August 11, 2009, as seen from dense GPS observation network in the Tokai district, Japan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kato, Teruyuki; Ochi, Tadafumi; Fukuda, Junichi; Yokota, Yusuke; Satomura, Mikio; Ukei, Kazuyuki; Harada, Yasushi; Sato, Kazutoshi

    2010-05-01

    A moderate size (M6.4) earthquake occurred in the Suruga-bay, central Japan, on 11 August 2009, adjacent to the hypothetical source area of the predicted M8 class "Tokai earthquake", which people believe to occur in the near future. The August 2009 earthquake threw a serious question if the earthquake triggers the "Tokai earthquake" or not. In order to evaluate stress transfer to the source region due to the earthquake, we estimated Coulomb Failure Function (CFF) on the source region due to the earthquake. In order to monitor crustal activity in the area, a lot of geophysical investigations have been conducted. The Japanese University Consortium for GPS Research (JUNCO) has established a dense GPS array in the Tokai region, to monitor the crustal deformation in this area. We deployed more than 50 permanent sites in this region adding to the GEONET GPS network that has been operated by the Geographical Survey Institute of Japan (GSI). The observation started in around 2003, which is in the middle of the 2000-2005 slow event that occurred in the west of the hypothetical source area of Tokai earthquake. In addition to GPS, leveling surveys have been conducted frequently in the region. Only one month before the 2009 August earthquake, a leveling survey was conducted in the region by GSI. Leveling surveys were repeated just after the earthquake, which provided us with unprecedented accurate co-seismic vertical motions due to the earthquake. The recent Suruga-Bay earthquake in August 2009 provided us a good oppotunity to examine if this earthquake accelerated or decelerated the generation of the "predicted" Tokai earthquake, using these abundant and accurate data. First, 30 second sampling GPS data and leveling data were used to derive the co-seismic fault model. Reflecting somewhat complicated rupture process revealed by seismic wave and aftershock distribution analysis, we required two fault segments model for the earthquake. Then, the estimated fault model was used to

  11. Soviet prediction of a major earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Simpson, D.W.

    1979-01-01

    On November 1, 1978, a magnitude 7 earthquake occurred north of the Pamir Mountains near the Tadjiskistan-Kirghizia border, 150 kilometers east of Garm in Soviet Central Asia. Although the earthquake was felt in Tashkent, Dushanbe, and the Fergana Valley, the epicentral area was uninhabited at that time of year, and no damage was reported. 

  12. The great San Francisco earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Nason, R. D.

    1981-01-01

    Seventy-five years ago on April 18, 1906, the most devastating earthquake in United States history occurred in northern California. This earthquake, which occurred at 5:2 in the morning just as the dawn was breaking, came from rupture of the San Andreas fault from San Juan Bautista (near Hollister) northqard for 270 miles to the coast near Eureka. Buildings were damaged everywhere in this region, for a north-south distance of 370 miles, from Arcata to Salinas, and an east-west width of 50 miles inland from the coast. The larger cities of San Francisco, Sna Jose, and Santa Rosa suffered the msot severe damage. 

  13. Earthquakes triggered by fluid extraction

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Segall, P.

    1989-01-01

    Seismicity is correlated in space and time with production from some oil and gas fields where pore pressures have declined by several tens of megapascals. Reverse faulting has occurred both above and below petroleum reservoirs, and normal faulting has occurred on the flanks of at least one reservoir. The theory of poroelasticity requires that fluid extraction locally alter the state of stress. Calculations with simple geometries predict stress perturbations that are consistent with observed earthquake locations and focal mechanisms. Measurements of surface displacement and strain, pore pressure, stress, and poroelastic rock properties in such areas could be used to test theoretical predictions and improve our understanding of earthquake mechanics. -Author

  14. Putting down roots in earthquake country-Your handbook for earthquakes in the Central United States

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Contributors: Dart, Richard; McCarthy, Jill; McCallister, Natasha; Williams, Robert A.

    2011-01-01

    This handbook provides information to residents of the Central United States about the threat of earthquakes in that area, particularly along the New Madrid seismic zone, and explains how to prepare for, survive, and recover from such events. It explains the need for concern about earthquakes for those residents and describes what one can expect during and after an earthquake. Much is known about the threat of earthquakes in the Central United States, including where they are likely to occur and what can be done to reduce losses from future earthquakes, but not enough has been done to prepare for future earthquakes. The handbook describes such preparations that can be taken by individual residents before an earthquake to be safe and protect property.

  15. Earthquakes: A Teacher's Package for K-6. Revised Edition.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    National Science Teachers Association, Arlington, VA.

    This teacher guide features five hands-on science units designed for elementary school students using an interdisciplinary approach. The first four units are presented at three different grade levels: K-2, 3-4, and 5-6. Units include: (1) "Defining an Earthquake"; (2) "Why and Where Earthquakes Occur"; (3) "Physical Results of Earthquakes"; (4)…

  16. Japanese Encephalitis: Frequently Asked Questions

    MedlinePlus

    ... by a virus spread by infected mosquitoes in Asia and the western Pacific. JE virus is one ... Where does Japanese encephalitis occur? JE occurs in Asia and parts of the western Pacific. It usually ...

  17. Evidence for aseismic deformation rate changes prior to earthquakes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Roeloffs, E.A.

    2006-01-01

    For ten earthquakes in nonmagmatic settings, there are credible published accounts of pre-earthquake deformation-rate changes lasting hundreds of seconds to more than a decade. Although most M > 7.5 earthquakes have occurred without detectable pre-earthquake deformation, the detection threshold for aseismic deformation remains high, in that aseismic slip with moment equivalent to an M5 earthquake would in most (although not all) cases have been missed. Interseismic deformation rates vary without being followed by earthquakes, and a strain-rate change prior to the 1989 Mw6.9 Loma Prieta, California, earthquake is shown to be similar in size to many other rate changes that have occurred since that time. Most examples of pre-earthquake aseismic deformation lasting hundreds of seconds or more probably originate adjacent to, or downdip of, the seismic rupture plane, rather than within the zone that undergoes seismic failure. Copyright ?? 2006 by Annual Reviews. All rights reserved.

  18. Darwin's earthquake.

    PubMed

    Lee, Richard V

    2010-07-01

    Charles Darwin experienced a major earthquake in the Concepción-Valdivia region of Chile 175 years ago, in February 1835. His observations dramatically illustrated the geologic principles of James Hutton and Charles Lyell which maintained that the surface of the earth was subject to alterations by natural events, such as earthquakes, volcanoes, and the erosive action of wind and water, operating over very long periods of time. Changes in the land created new environments and fostered adaptations in life forms that could lead to the formation of new species. Without the demonstration of the accumulation of multiple crustal events over time in Chile, the biologic implications of the specific species of birds and tortoises found in the Galapagos Islands and the formulation of the concept of natural selection might have remained dormant.

  19. Earthquakes at North Atlantic passive margins

    SciTech Connect

    Gregersen, S. ); Basham, P.W. )

    1989-01-01

    The main focus of this volume is the earthquakes that occur at and near the continental margins on both sides of the North Atlantic. The book, which contains the proceedings of the NATO workshop on Causes and Effects of Earthquakes at Passive Margins and in Areas of Postglacial Rebound on Both Sides of the North Atlantic, draws together the fields of geophysics, geology and geodesy to address the stress and strain in the Earth's crust. The resulting earthquakes produced on ancient geological fault zones and the associated seismic hazards these pose to man are also addressed. Postglacial rebound in North America and Fennoscandia is a minor source of earthquakes today, during the interglacial period, but evidence is presented to suggest that the ice sheets suppressed earthquake strain while they were in place, and released this strain as a pulse of significant earthquakes after the ice melted about 9000 years ago.

  20. Pain after earthquake

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Introduction On 6 April 2009, at 03:32 local time, an Mw 6.3 earthquake hit the Abruzzi region of central Italy causing widespread damage in the City of L Aquila and its nearby villages. The earthquake caused 308 casualties and over 1,500 injuries, displaced more than 25,000 people and induced significant damage to more than 10,000 buildings in the L'Aquila region. Objectives This observational retrospective study evaluated the prevalence and drug treatment of pain in the five weeks following the L'Aquila earthquake (April 6, 2009). Methods 958 triage documents were analysed for patients pain severity, pain type, and treatment efficacy. Results A third of pain patients reported pain with a prevalence of 34.6%. More than half of pain patients reported severe pain (58.8%). Analgesic agents were limited to available drugs: anti-inflammatory agents, paracetamol, and weak opioids. Reduction in verbal numerical pain scores within the first 24 hours after treatment was achieved with the medications at hand. Pain prevalence and characterization exhibited a biphasic pattern with acute pain syndromes owing to trauma occurring in the first 15 days after the earthquake; traumatic pain then decreased and re-surged at around week five, owing to rebuilding efforts. In the second through fourth week, reports of pain occurred mainly owing to relapses of chronic conditions. Conclusions This study indicates that pain is prevalent during natural disasters, may exhibit a discernible pattern over the weeks following the event, and current drug treatments in this region may be adequate for emergency situations. PMID:22747796

  1. Geological and historical evidence of irregular recurrent earthquakes in Japan.

    PubMed

    Satake, Kenji

    2015-10-28

    Great (M∼8) earthquakes repeatedly occur along the subduction zones around Japan and cause fault slip of a few to several metres releasing strains accumulated from decades to centuries of plate motions. Assuming a simple 'characteristic earthquake' model that similar earthquakes repeat at regular intervals, probabilities of future earthquake occurrence have been calculated by a government committee. However, recent studies on past earthquakes including geological traces from giant (M∼9) earthquakes indicate a variety of size and recurrence interval of interplate earthquakes. Along the Kuril Trench off Hokkaido, limited historical records indicate that average recurrence interval of great earthquakes is approximately 100 years, but the tsunami deposits show that giant earthquakes occurred at a much longer interval of approximately 400 years. Along the Japan Trench off northern Honshu, recurrence of giant earthquakes similar to the 2011 Tohoku earthquake with an interval of approximately 600 years is inferred from historical records and tsunami deposits. Along the Sagami Trough near Tokyo, two types of Kanto earthquakes with recurrence interval of a few hundred years and a few thousand years had been recognized, but studies show that the recent three Kanto earthquakes had different source extents. Along the Nankai Trough off western Japan, recurrence of great earthquakes with an interval of approximately 100 years has been identified from historical literature, but tsunami deposits indicate that the sizes of the recurrent earthquakes are variable. Such variability makes it difficult to apply a simple 'characteristic earthquake' model for the long-term forecast, and several attempts such as use of geological data for the evaluation of future earthquake probabilities or the estimation of maximum earthquake size in each subduction zone are being conducted by government committees.

  2. Evidence for Ancient Mesoamerican Earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kovach, R. L.; Garcia, B.

    2001-12-01

    Evidence for past earthquake damage at Mesoamerican ruins is often overlooked because of the invasive effects of tropical vegetation and is usually not considered as a casual factor when restoration and reconstruction of many archaeological sites are undertaken. Yet the proximity of many ruins to zones of seismic activity would argue otherwise. Clues as to the types of damage which should be soughtwere offered in September 1999 when the M = 7.5 Oaxaca earthquake struck the ruins of Monte Alban, Mexico, where archaeological renovations were underway. More than 20 structures were damaged, 5 of them seriously. Damage features noted were walls out of plumb, fractures in walls, floors, basal platforms and tableros, toppling of columns, and deformation, settling and tumbling of walls. A Modified Mercalli Intensity of VII (ground accelerations 18-34 %b) occurred at the site. Within the diffuse landward extension of the Caribbean plate boundary zone M = 7+ earthquakes occur with repeat times of hundreds of years arguing that many Maya sites were subjected to earthquakes. Damage to re-erected and reinforced stelae, walls, and buildings were witnessed at Quirigua, Guatemala, during an expedition underway when then 1976 M = 7.5 Guatemala earthquake on the Motagua fault struck. Excavations also revealed evidence (domestic pttery vessels and skeleton of a child crushed under fallen walls) of an ancient earthquake occurring about the teim of the demise and abandonment of Quirigua in the late 9th century. Striking evidence for sudden earthquake building collapse at the end of the Mayan Classic Period ~A.D. 889 was found at Benque Viejo (Xunantunich), Belize, located 210 north of Quirigua. It is argued that a M = 7.5 to 7.9 earthquake at the end of the Maya Classic period centered in the vicinity of the Chixoy-Polochic and Motagua fault zones cound have produced the contemporaneous earthquake damage to the above sites. As a consequences this earthquake may have accelerated the

  3. Twitter earthquake detection: Earthquake monitoring in a social world

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Earle, Paul S.; Bowden, Daniel C.; Guy, Michelle R.

    2011-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is investigating how the social networking site Twitter, a popular service for sending and receiving short, public text messages, can augment USGS earthquake response products and the delivery of hazard information. Rapid detection and qualitative assessment of shaking events are possible because people begin sending public Twitter messages (tweets) with in tens of seconds after feeling shaking. Here we present and evaluate an earthquake detection procedure that relies solely on Twitter data. A tweet-frequency time series constructed from tweets containing the word "earthquake" clearly shows large peaks correlated with the origin times of widely felt events. To identify possible earthquakes, we use a short-term-average, long-term-average algorithm. When tuned to a moderate sensitivity, the detector finds 48 globally-distributed earthquakes with only two false triggers in five months of data. The number of detections is small compared to the 5,175 earthquakes in the USGS global earthquake catalog for the same five-month time period, and no accurate location or magnitude can be assigned based on tweet data alone. However, Twitter earthquake detections are not without merit. The detections are generally caused by widely felt events that are of more immediate interest than those with no human impact. The detections are also fast; about 75% occur within two minutes of the origin time. This is considerably faster than seismographic detections in poorly instrumented regions of the world. The tweets triggering the detections also provided very short first-impression narratives from people who experienced the shaking.

  4. Revisiting the 1872 Owens Valley, California, Earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hough, S.E.; Hutton, K.

    2008-01-01

    The 26 March 1872 Owens Valley earthquake is among the largest historical earthquakes in California. The felt area and maximum fault displacements have long been regarded as comparable to, if not greater than, those of the great San Andreas fault earthquakes of 1857 and 1906, but mapped surface ruptures of the latter two events were 2-3 times longer than that inferred for the 1872 rupture. The preferred magnitude estimate of the Owens Valley earthquake has thus been 7.4, based largely on the geological evidence. Reinterpreting macroseismic accounts of the Owens Valley earthquake, we infer generally lower intensity values than those estimated in earlier studies. Nonetheless, as recognized in the early twentieth century, the effects of this earthquake were still generally more dramatic at regional distances than the macroseismic effects from the 1906 earthquake, with light damage to masonry buildings at (nearest-fault) distances as large as 400 km. Macroseismic observations thus suggest a magnitude greater than that of the 1906 San Francisco earthquake, which appears to be at odds with geological observations. However, while the mapped rupture length of the Owens Valley earthquake is relatively low, the average slip was high. The surface rupture was also complex and extended over multiple fault segments. It was first mapped in detail over a century after the earthquake occurred, and recent evidence suggests it might have been longer than earlier studies indicated. Our preferred magnitude estimate is Mw 7.8-7.9, values that we show are consistent with the geological observations. The results of our study suggest that either the Owens Valley earthquake was larger than the 1906 San Francisco earthquake or that, by virtue of source properties and/or propagation effects, it produced systematically higher ground motions at regional distances. The latter possibility implies that some large earthquakes in California will generate significantly larger ground motions than San

  5. Earthquake potential revealed by tidal influence on earthquake size-frequency statistics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ide, Satoshi; Yabe, Suguru; Tanaka, Yoshiyuki

    2016-11-01

    The possibility that tidal stress can trigger earthquakes is long debated. In particular, a clear causal relationship between small earthquakes and the phase of tidal stress is elusive. However, tectonic tremors deep within subduction zones are highly sensitive to tidal stress levels, with tremor rate increasing at an exponential rate with rising tidal stress. Thus, slow deformation and the possibility of earthquakes at subduction plate boundaries may be enhanced during periods of large tidal stress. Here we calculate the tidal stress history, and specifically the amplitude of tidal stress, on a fault plane in the two weeks before large earthquakes globally, based on data from the global, Japanese, and Californian earthquake catalogues. We find that very large earthquakes, including the 2004 Sumatran, 2010 Maule earthquake in Chile and the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake in Japan, tend to occur near the time of maximum tidal stress amplitude. This tendency is not obvious for small earthquakes. However, we also find that the fraction of large earthquakes increases (the b-value of the Gutenberg-Richter relation decreases) as the amplitude of tidal shear stress increases. The relationship is also reasonable, considering the well-known relationship between stress and the b-value. This suggests that the probability of a tiny rock failure expanding to a gigantic rupture increases with increasing tidal stress levels. We conclude that large earthquakes are more probable during periods of high tidal stress.

  6. Intraplate triggered earthquakes: Observations and interpretation

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hough, S.E.; Seeber, L.; Armbruster, J.G.

    2003-01-01

    We present evidence that at least two of the three 1811-1812 New Madrid, central United States, mainshocks and the 1886 Charleston, South Carolina, earthquake triggered earthquakes at regional distances. In addition to previously published evidence for triggered earthquakes in the northern Kentucky/southern Ohio region in 1812, we present evidence suggesting that triggered events might have occurred in the Wabash Valley, to the south of the New Madrid Seismic Zone, and near Charleston, South Carolina. We also discuss evidence that earthquakes might have been triggered in northern Kentucky within seconds of the passage of surface waves from the 23 January 1812 New Madrid mainshock. After the 1886 Charleston earthquake, accounts suggest that triggered events occurred near Moodus, Connecticut, and in southern Indiana. Notwithstanding the uncertainty associated with analysis of historical accounts, there is evidence that at least three out of the four known Mw 7 earthquakes in the central and eastern United States seem to have triggered earthquakes at distances beyond the typically assumed aftershock zone of 1-2 mainshock fault lengths. We explore the possibility that remotely triggered earthquakes might be common in low-strain-rate regions. We suggest that in a low-strain-rate environment, permanent, nonelastic deformation might play a more important role in stress accumulation than it does in interplate crust. Using a simple model incorporating elastic and anelastic strain release, we show that, for realistic parameter values, faults in intraplate crust remain close to their failure stress for a longer part of the earthquake cycle than do faults in high-strain-rate regions. Our results further suggest that remotely triggered earthquakes occur preferentially in regions of recent and/or future seismic activity, which suggests that faults are at a critical stress state in only some areas. Remotely triggered earthquakes may thus serve as beacons that identify regions of

  7. The October 1992 Parkfield, California, earthquake prediction

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Langbein, J.

    1992-01-01

    A magnitude 4.7 earthquake occurred near Parkfield, California, on October 20, 992, at 05:28 UTC (October 19 at 10:28 p.m. local or Pacific Daylight Time).This moderate shock, interpreted as the potential foreshock of a damaging earthquake on the San Andreas fault, triggered long-standing federal, state and local government plans to issue a public warning of an imminent magnitude 6 earthquake near Parkfield. Although the predicted earthquake did not take place, sophisticated suites of instruments deployed as part of the Parkfield Earthquake Prediction Experiment recorded valuable data associated with an unusual series of events. this article describes the geological aspects of these events, which occurred near Parkfield in October 1992. The accompnaying article, an edited version of a press conference b Richard Andrews, the Director of the California Office of Emergency Service (OES), describes governmental response to the prediction.   

  8. Possible occurrence of a giant interplate earthquake in northeast Japan greater than the 2011 Tohoku earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ohtani, M.; Hirahara, K.; Hori, T.; Hyodo, M.

    2012-12-01

    We supposed there occur M7-class earthquakes and the co-rupturing M8 earthquakes on the Pacific plate interface subducting beneath northeast Japan. Against our speculation, the 2011 Tohoku earthquake grew up to Mw9.0. We have so far constructed cycle models of this giant earthquake to understand why this grew up to Mw9.0. Next question is; is there any possibility that a much larger earthquake occurs in this region? In this study, we explore this possibility through quasi-dynamic earthquake cycle simulations. The 2011 Tohoku earthquake ruptured a large region of 200km x 500km. The rupture region includes a confined area with huge coseismic slip over 50 m in the shallow Off-Miyagi region close to the Japan Trench, and several M7 asperities in Off-Miyagi and Ibaraki regions which have been ruptured repeatedly at intervals of several ten years. The tsunami deposit surveys suggest this giant earthquake has the recurrence time of several hundred years. The afterslip occurs mainly in the deeper region of the coseismic slip region, except the Off-Miyagi region [Ozawa et al., 2012]. At Off-Kamaishi and Off-Fukushima regions located in the northern and southern sides of the Off-Miyagi region, we can find the local maximum of the afterslip. The Off-Kamaishi region did not produce much coseismic slip, and has not experienced historical large earthquakes. And no large afterslip extended to the northern region beyond Off-Kamaishi. Then, the Off-Kamaishi region is a kind of boundary between the 2011 Tohoku earthquake and its adjacent northern regions. In the northern region, there occurred the 1968 Off-Tokachi Mw8.3 earthquake, which has three M7 asperities with recurrence times of several ten years [Yamanaka & Kikuchi, 2004]. An aftershock of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake, which occurred 22 minutes after the main shock, is located at the southern asperity area. And there is a region close to the Japan Trench, where the 1897 Meiji-sanriku tsunami earthquake occurred. We performed

  9. Identified EM Earthquake Precursors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jones, Kenneth, II; Saxton, Patrick

    2014-05-01

    Many attempts have been made to determine a sound forecasting method regarding earthquakes and warn the public in turn. Presently, the animal kingdom leads the precursor list alluding to a transmission related source. By applying the animal-based model to an electromagnetic (EM) wave model, various hypotheses were formed, but the most interesting one required the use of a magnetometer with a differing design and geometry. To date, numerous, high-end magnetometers have been in use in close proximity to fault zones for potential earthquake forecasting; however, something is still amiss. The problem still resides with what exactly is forecastable and the investigating direction of EM. After a number of custom rock experiments, two hypotheses were formed which could answer the EM wave model. The first hypothesis concerned a sufficient and continuous electron movement either by surface or penetrative flow, and the second regarded a novel approach to radio transmission. Electron flow along fracture surfaces was determined to be inadequate in creating strong EM fields, because rock has a very high electrical resistance making it a high quality insulator. Penetrative flow could not be corroborated as well, because it was discovered that rock was absorbing and confining electrons to a very thin skin depth. Radio wave transmission and detection worked with every single test administered. This hypothesis was reviewed for propagating, long-wave generation with sufficient amplitude, and the capability of penetrating solid rock. Additionally, fracture spaces, either air or ion-filled, can facilitate this concept from great depths and allow for surficial detection. A few propagating precursor signals have been detected in the field occurring with associated phases using custom-built loop antennae. Field testing was conducted in Southern California from 2006-2011, and outside the NE Texas town of Timpson in February, 2013. The antennae have mobility and observations were noted for

  10. Generalization for Frequent Subgraph Mining

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Inokuchi, Akihiro; Washio, Takashi; Motoda, Hiroshi

    Data mining to derive frequent subgraphs from a dataset of general graphs has high computational complexity because it includes the explosively combinatorial search for candidate subgraphs and subgraph isomorphism matching. Although some approaches have been proposed to derive characteristic patterns from graph structured data, they limit the graphs to be searched within a specific class. In this paper, we propose an approach to conduct a complete search of various classes of frequent subgraphs in a massive dataset of labeled graphs within practical time. The power of our approach comes from the algebraic representation of graphs, its associated operations and well-organized bias constraints to limit the search space efficiently. Its performance has been evaluated through real world datasets, and the high scalability of our approach has been confirmed with respect to the amount of data and the computation time.

  11. Earthquake Potential in the Zagros Region, Iran

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Madahizadeh, Rohollah; Mostafazadeh, Mehrdad; Ashkpour-Motlagh, Shobyr

    2016-10-01

    Seismic strain and b value are used to quantify seismic potential in the Zagros region (Iran). Small b values (0.69 and 0.69) are related to large seismic moment rates (9.96×1017 and 4.12×1017) in southern zones of the Zagros, indicating more frequent large earthquakes. Medium to large b values (0.72 and 0.92) are related to small seismic moment rates (2.94×1016 and 6.80×1016) in middle zones of the Zagros, indicating less frequent large earthquakes. Small b value (0.64) is related to medium seismic moment rate (1.38×1017) in middle to northern zone of the Zagros, indicating frequent large earthquakes. Large b value (0.87) is related to large seismic moment rate (2.29×1017) in northwestern zone, indicating more frequent large earthquakes. Recurrence intervals of large earthquakes ( M > 6) are short in southern (10 and 14 years) and northwestern (13 years) zones, while the recurrence intervals are long in the middle (46 and 114 years) and middle to northern (25 years) zones.

  12. Earthquake swarms reveal submarine magma unrest induced by distant mega-earthquakes: Andaman Sea region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Špičák, Aleš; Vaněk, Jiří

    2016-02-01

    Little is known about earthquake-triggered magma intrusions or eruptions of submarine volcanoes. The analysis of teleseismic earthquake occurrence performed in this study offers a tool to address such enigmatic and inaccessible processes. In the past ten years, the Andaman Sea region repeatedly became a site of shallow earthquake swarms that followed distant mega-earthquakes by days to weeks. The MW 9.1 December 26, 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake was followed by two earthquake swarms about 600 km northward in the Andaman Sea region, delayed by 30 and 35 days, respectively. Earthquakes of one of these seismic episodes, the extensive January 2005 earthquake swarm, migrated laterally at a rate of about 0.25 km per hour during the swarm evolution. The strong Indian Ocean MW 8.6 and 8.2 April 11, 2012 earthquake doublet west of Northern Sumatra was followed by an earthquake swarm approximately 800 km northward in the Andaman Sea region, delayed by 13 days. All the three swarms that followed the 2004 and 2012 mega-earthquakes occurred beneath distinct seamounts and seafloor ridges. Based on the observations of migration of earthquakes during the swarm and swarm occurrence beneath distinct highs at the seafloor, we conclude that these earthquake swarms probably resulted as a consequence of magma unrest induced by static and/or dynamic stress changes following the distant mega-earthquakes. Repeated occurrence of such a phenomenon suggests that the arc magma reservoirs beneath the Andaman Sea have recently reached some form of criticality and are vulnerable to even small stress changes. The Andaman seafloor could thus become a site of submarine volcanic eruptions in near future and deserves close attention of Earth scientists.

  13. Spatial Evaluation and Verification of Earthquake Simulators

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wilson, John Max; Yoder, Mark R.; Rundle, John B.; Turcotte, Donald L.; Schultz, Kasey W.

    2016-09-01

    In this paper, we address the problem of verifying earthquake simulators with observed data. Earthquake simulators are a class of computational simulations which attempt to mirror the topological complexity of fault systems on which earthquakes occur. In addition, the physics of friction and elastic interactions between fault elements are included in these simulations. Simulation parameters are adjusted so that natural earthquake sequences are matched in their scaling properties. Physically based earthquake simulators can generate many thousands of years of simulated seismicity, allowing for a robust capture of the statistical properties of large, damaging earthquakes that have long recurrence time scales. Verification of simulations against current observed earthquake seismicity is necessary, and following past simulator and forecast model verification methods, we approach the challenges in spatial forecast verification to simulators; namely, that simulator outputs are confined to the modeled faults, while observed earthquake epicenters often occur off of known faults. We present two methods for addressing this discrepancy: a simplistic approach whereby observed earthquakes are shifted to the nearest fault element and a smoothing method based on the power laws of the epidemic-type aftershock (ETAS) model, which distributes the seismicity of each simulated earthquake over the entire test region at a decaying rate with epicentral distance. To test these methods, a receiver operating characteristic plot was produced by comparing the rate maps to observed m>6.0 earthquakes in California since 1980. We found that the nearest-neighbor mapping produced poor forecasts, while the ETAS power-law method produced rate maps that agreed reasonably well with observations.

  14. Infectious complications after mass disasters: the Marmara earthquake experience.

    PubMed

    Keven, Kenan; Ates, Kenan; Sever, Mehmet Sukru; Yenicesu, Mujdat; Canbakan, Basol; Arinsoy, Turgay; Ozdemir, Nurhan; Duranay, Murat; Altun, Bulent; Erek, Ekrem

    2003-01-01

    The Marmara earthquake occurred on 17 August 1999. There were 639 renal victims, of whom 477 needed some form of renal replacement therapy. Although several medical complications have been reported in the literature, there has been no detailed description of infectious complications in patients with crush syndrome after earthquakes. Data from 35 hospitals considering clinical and laboratory findings, as well as infectious complications and the results of microbiological examinations, were analysed. 223 out of 639 (34.9%) patients had infectious complications, which comprised the most frequent medical problem in the renal victims. The patients who suffered from infections had a higher mortality rate than those who did not (p = 0.03). Sepsis and wound infection were the main presentation of the infectious complications. 121 (18.9%) patients suffered from sepsis; the mortality rate was higher in these patients (27.3%) than in victims who did not suffer from sepsis (12.4%, p < 0.0001). In a multivariate model, sepsis was associated with increased mortality (p = 0.0002, odds ratio 2.45, 95% confidence interval 1.52-3.96). 53 (8.2%) and 41 (6.4%) patients had wound and pulmonary infections, respectively. Most of the infections were nosocomial in origin and caused by Gram-negative aerobic bacteria and Staphylococcus spp. Infectious complications are common in renal victims of catastrophic earthquakes and are associated with increased mortality when complicated by sepsis.

  15. Earthquake hazards on the cascadia subduction zone

    SciTech Connect

    Heaton, T.H.; Hartzell, S.H.

    1987-04-10

    Large subduction earthquakes on the Cascadia subduction zone pose a potential seismic hazard. Very young oceanic lithosphere (10 million years old) is being subducted beneath North America at a rate of approximately 4 centimeters per year. The Cascadia subduction zone shares many characteristics with subduction zones in southern Chile, southwestern Japan, and Colombia, where comparably young oceanic lithosphere is also subducting. Very large subduction earthquakes, ranging in energy magnitude (M/sub w/) between 8 and 9.5, have occurred along these other subduction zones. If the Cascadia subduction zone is also storing elastic energy, a sequence of several great earthquakes (M/sub w/ 8) or a giant earthquake (M/sub w/ 9) would be necessary to fill this 1200-kilometer gap. The nature of strong ground motions recorded during subduction earthquakes of M/sub w/ less than 8.2 is discussed. Strong ground motions from even larger earthquakes (M/sub w/ up to 9.5) are estimated by simple simulations. If large subduction earthquakes occur in the Pacific Northwest, relatively strong shaking can be expected over a large region. Such earthquakes may also be accompanied by large local tsunamis. 35 references, 6 figures.

  16. Earthquake hazards on the cascadia subduction zone.

    PubMed

    Heaton, T H; Hartzell, S H

    1987-04-10

    Large subduction earthquakes on the Cascadia subduction zone pose a potential seismic hazard. Very young oceanic lithosphere (10 million years old) is being subducted beneath North America at a rate of approximately 4 centimeters per year. The Cascadia subduction zone shares many characteristics with subduction zones in southern Chile, southwestern Japan, and Colombia, where comparably young oceanic lithosphere is also subducting. Very large subduction earthquakes, ranging in energy magnitude (M(w)) between 8 and 9.5, have occurred along these other subduction zones. If the Cascadia subduction zone is also storing elastic energy, a sequence of several great earthquakes (M(w) 8) or a giant earthquake (M(w) 9) would be necessary to fill this 1200-kilometer gap. The nature of strong ground motions recorded during subduction earthquakes of M(w) less than 8.2 is discussed. Strong ground motions from even larger earthquakes (M(w) up to 9.5) are estimated by simple simulations. If large subduction earthquakes occur in the Pacific Northwest, relatively strong shaking can be expected over a large region. Such earthquakes may also be accompanied by large local tsunamis.

  17. Field reconnaissance of the 2007 Niigata-Chuetsu Oki earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Apostolakis, Georgios; Qu, Bing; Ecemis, Nurhan; Dogruel, Seda

    2007-12-01

    As part of the 2007 Tri-Center Field Mission to Japan, a reconnaissance team comprised of fourteen graduate students and three faculty members from three U.S. earthquake engineering research centers, namely, Multidisciplinary Center for Earthquake Engineering Research (MCEER), Mid-America Earthquake Center (MAE), and Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center (PEER), undertook a reconnaissance visit to the affected area shortly after the 2007 Niigata-Chuetsu Oki earthquake. This mission provided an opportunity to review the nature of the earthquake damage that occurred, as well as to assess the significance of the damage from an educational perspective. This paper reports on the seismological characteristics of the earthquake, preliminary findings of geotechnical and structural damage, and the causes of the observed failures or collapses. In addition, economic and socio-economic considerations and experiences to enhance earthquake resilience are presented.

  18. Tilt precursors before earthquakes on the San Andreas fault, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Johnston, M.J.S.; Mortensen, C.E.

    1974-01-01

    An array of 14 biaxial shallow-borehole tiltmeters (at 10-7 radian sensitivity) has been installed along 85 kilometers of the San Andreas fault during the past year. Earthquake-related changes in tilt have been simultaneously observed on up to four independent instruments. At earthquake distances greater than 10 earthquake source dimensions, there are few clear indications of tilt change. For the four instruments with the longest records (>10 months), 26 earthquakes have occurred since July 1973 with at least one instrument closer than 10 source dimensions and 8 earthquakes with more than one instrument within that distance. Precursors in tilt direction have been observed before more than 10 earthquakes or groups of earthquakes, and no similar effect has yet been seen without the occurrence of an earthquake.

  19. Naturally occurring chemical carcinogens

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Natural products are chemicals found in nature which have unique pharmacological effects. Humans are exposed to many of these bioactive naturally occurring chemicals via the air breathed, the water drunk and the food eaten. Exposure also occurs in clinical settings. Naturally occurring chemicals ...

  20. The 8 February 1843 Lesser Antilles Earthquake: A "Missing" Great Earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hough, S. E.

    2012-12-01

    The seismic potential of the Lesser Antilles subduction zone and the adjacent Puerto Rico trench remains a matter of debate. The central arc of the Lesser Antilles subduction zone is currently accumulating elastic strain at a rate slower than the plate motion (Manaker et al., 2008), and a recent study concludes that no major subduction zone earthquake has occurred along the Puerto Rico trench during the 500-year historical record (tenBrink et al., 2012). The 8 February 1843 earthquake is the largest historical event on the Lesser Antilles arc. A recent study estimated a preferred magnitude of 8.5 based on near-field macroseismic effects (Feuillet et al., 2011), but the generally accepted value has been 7.5-8. A consideration of the regional and far-field macroseismic effects reveals a felt distribution comparable to those of recent great (Mw ≥ 9.0) earthquakes. Credible archival accounts provide compelling evidence that the earthquake was felt throughout a wide region of the eastern United States, as far north as New York City. The event was also felt at three locations in South America, and in Bermuda. A modest tsunami is described by two witnesses; two other accounts describe uplift of a stone wharf in Antigua, and along the northern coast of Guadaloupe . The distribution and character of intensities in the near field of any earthquake will reflect the complexity of the source; the pattern of high- and low-frequency radiation from the 2011 Tohoku, Japan, earthquake, demonstrates that these patterns can be complex for great earthquakes. For the 1843 earthquake, the far-field intensity distribution provides a stronger constraint on magnitude. The observations support the inference of a high (M≥8.5) magnitude, and significant moment release towards or possibly around the northern corner of the Lesser Antilles Arc. Possible modern analogs for such an event can be identified, including the Mw8.6 2005 Nias earthquake and the 11 April 2012 Mw8.6 strike

  1. Induced earthquake magnitudes are as large as (statistically) expected

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Elst, Nicholas J.; Page, Morgan T.; Weiser, Deborah A.; Goebel, Thomas H. W.; Hosseini, S. Mehran

    2016-06-01

    A major question for the hazard posed by injection-induced seismicity is how large induced earthquakes can be. Are their maximum magnitudes determined by injection parameters or by tectonics? Deterministic limits on induced earthquake magnitudes have been proposed based on the size of the reservoir or the volume of fluid injected. However, if induced earthquakes occur on tectonic faults oriented favorably with respect to the tectonic stress field, then they may be limited only by the regional tectonics and connectivity of the fault network. In this study, we show that the largest magnitudes observed at fluid injection sites are consistent with the sampling statistics of the Gutenberg-Richter distribution for tectonic earthquakes, assuming no upper magnitude bound. The data pass three specific tests: (1) the largest observed earthquake at each site scales with the log of the total number of induced earthquakes, (2) the order of occurrence of the largest event is random within the induced sequence, and (3) the injected volume controls the total number of earthquakes rather than the total seismic moment. All three tests point to an injection control on earthquake nucleation but a tectonic control on earthquake magnitude. Given that the largest observed earthquakes are exactly as large as expected from the sampling statistics, we should not conclude that these are the largest earthquakes possible. Instead, the results imply that induced earthquake magnitudes should be treated with the same maximum magnitude bound that is currently used to treat seismic hazard from tectonic earthquakes.

  2. Estimating Casualties for Large Earthquakes Worldwide Using an Empirical Approach

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Jaiswal, Kishor; Wald, David J.; Hearne, Mike

    2009-01-01

    We developed an empirical country- and region-specific earthquake vulnerability model to be used as a candidate for post-earthquake fatality estimation by the U.S. Geological Survey's Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system. The earthquake fatality rate is based on past fatal earthquakes (earthquakes causing one or more deaths) in individual countries where at least four fatal earthquakes occurred during the catalog period (since 1973). Because only a few dozen countries have experienced four or more fatal earthquakes since 1973, we propose a new global regionalization scheme based on idealization of countries that are expected to have similar susceptibility to future earthquake losses given the existing building stock, its vulnerability, and other socioeconomic characteristics. The fatality estimates obtained using an empirical country- or region-specific model will be used along with other selected engineering risk-based loss models for generation of automated earthquake alerts. These alerts could potentially benefit the rapid-earthquake-response agencies and governments for better response to reduce earthquake fatalities. Fatality estimates are also useful to stimulate earthquake preparedness planning and disaster mitigation. The proposed model has several advantages as compared with other candidate methods, and the country- or region-specific fatality rates can be readily updated when new data become available.

  3. Earthquake and Tsunami booklet based on two Indonesia earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hayashi, Y.; Aci, M.

    2014-12-01

    Many destructive earthquakes occurred during the last decade in Indonesia. These experiences are very important precepts for the world people who live in earthquake and tsunami countries. We are collecting the testimonies of tsunami survivors to clarify successful evacuation process and to make clear the characteristic physical behaviors of tsunami near coast. We research 2 tsunami events, 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami and 2010 Mentawai slow earthquake tsunami. Many video and photographs were taken by people at some places in 2004 Indian ocean tsunami disaster; nevertheless these were few restricted points. We didn't know the tsunami behavior in another place. In this study, we tried to collect extensive information about tsunami behavior not only in many places but also wide time range after the strong shake. In Mentawai case, the earthquake occurred in night, so there are no impressive photos. To collect detail information about evacuation process from tsunamis, we contrived the interview method. This method contains making pictures of tsunami experience from the scene of victims' stories. In 2004 Aceh case, all survivors didn't know tsunami phenomena. Because there were no big earthquakes with tsunami for one hundred years in Sumatra region, public people had no knowledge about tsunami. This situation was highly improved in 2010 Mentawai case. TV programs and NGO or governmental public education programs about tsunami evacuation are widespread in Indonesia. Many people know about fundamental knowledge of earthquake and tsunami disasters. We made drill book based on victim's stories and painted impressive scene of 2 events. We used the drill book in disaster education event in school committee of west Java. About 80 % students and teachers evaluated that the contents of the drill book are useful for correct understanding.

  4. Collaborative Comparison of Earthquake Simulators

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Richards-Dinger, K.; Zielke, O.; Tullis, T. E.; Ward, S. N.; Kaneko, Y.; Shaw, B. E.; Lapusta, N.; Pollitz, F. F.; Morein, G.; Turcotte, D. L.; Robinson, R.; Dieterich, J. H.; Rundle, J. D.; Beeler, N. M.

    2008-12-01

    Earthquake simulators, i.e. computer models in which a series of earthquakes spontaneously occur, are important for understanding earthquake mechanics and earthquake predictability. However, to use earthquake simulators in hazard anaylsis they must show realistic behavior. It is difficult to determine how realistic simulator results are. This is in part because of the complexity of their behavior and the limited database of long sequences of natural earthquakes, especially large ones, against which to compare a simulator's behavior. Due to limits on memory and computation speed it is presently impossible to construct a simulator that simultaneously incorporates everything known about frictional behavior of rock, includes full elastodynamics, and utilizes both small enough elements to properly represent a continuum and enough elements to cover a large geographic area and represent many faults. Consequently, all simulators make compromises. A wide variety of simulators exist, each with different compromises. The effects on the simulator results of these compromises are not currently known. Our goal is to gain a better understanding of the validity of the results of earthquake simulators. This is a joint effort to compare the behavior of our nine independently devised earthquake simulators. We have defined and studied two simple problems. The first checks that each simulator accurately gives the stresses due to slip on a simple vertical strike-slip fault. All simulators satisfactorily passed this test. The second is a comparison of the behavior of a simple strike slip fault, with a simple bi-linear asymmetrically peaked initial stress distribution, and a constant loading rate. The fault constitutive properties have a fixed failure stress, higher than the peak in the initial stress, and a fixed dynamic sliding stress, although models utilizing rate and state friction only approximate this simple description. A series of earthquakes occur in the simulations and the

  5. Assessing the risk of earthquakes in the eastern United States

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1981-09-01

    Although earthquakes in the U.S. are generally considered California's problem, a number of major earthquakes have struck the central and eastern United States. The last damaging earthquake in the eastern U.S. occurred in 1886, near Charleston, SC, killing 60 people and causing extensive damage in Charleston. During the winter of 1811-12, three major earthquakes occurred near New Madrid in southeastern Missouri. Because the area, at that time, was sparsely populated, casualties were not extensive, but the quakes caused damage and ground shaking over an area 20 times larger than that for the 1906 San Francisco earthquake. Because of these earthquakes and others, the potential for damaging earthquakes in the eastern U.S. is real, and this was the subject of a recent meeting of geologists, seismologists, and engineers in Knoxville, TN, in September 1981. The highlights of their discussions are presented in this article.

  6. Material contrast does not predict earthquake rupture propagation direction

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Harris, R.A.; Day, S.M.

    2005-01-01

    Earthquakes often occur on faults that juxtapose different rocks. The result is rupture behavior that differs from that of an earthquake occurring on a fault in a homogeneous material. Previous 2D numerical simulations have studied simple cases of earthquake rupture propagation where there is a material contrast across a fault and have come to two different conclusions: 1) earthquake rupture propagation direction can be predicted from the material contrast, and 2) earthquake rupture propagation direction cannot be predicted from the material contrast. In this paper we provide observational evidence from 70 years of earthquakes at Parkfield, CA, and new 3D numerical simulations. Both the observations and the numerical simulations demonstrate that earthquake rupture propagation direction is unlikely to be predictable on the basis of a material contrast. Copyright 2005 by the American Geophysical Union.

  7. Earthquake history of the United States

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Coffman, Jerry L.; Von Hake, Carl A.; Stover, Carl W.; Coffman, Jerry L.; von Hake, Carl A.; Stover, Carl W.

    1982-01-01

    This publication is a history of the prominent earthquakes in the United States from historical times through 1970. It supersedes all previous editions with the same or similar titles (see page ii) and, in addition to updating earthquake listings through 1970, contains several additions and corrections to previous issues. It also brings together under a common cover earthquake data previously listed in two separate reports: Earthquake History of the United States, Part I, Stronger Earthquakes of the United States (Exclusive of California and Western Nevada) and Earthquake History of the United States, Part II, Stronger Earthquakes of California and Western Nevada. Another addition to this publication is the inclusion of a section describing earthquakes in the Puerto Rico region. For the purpose of listing and describing earthquakes, the United States has been divided into nine regions: (1) Northeastern Region, which includes New England and New York activity and observations of the principal earthquakes of eastern Canada; (2) Eastern Region, including the central Appalachian seismic region activity and the area near Charleston, S.C.; (3) Central Region, which consists of the area between the region just described and the Rocky Mountains; (4) Western Mountain Region, which includes all remaining states except those on the Pacific coast; (5) Washington and Oregon; (6) Alaska; (7) Hawaii; (8) Puerto Rico; and (9) California and Western Nevada. This arrangement has been made chiefly with reference to the natural seismic divisions. It also is a convenient arrangement because there are only three states where there is an important division of earthquake activity: In Tennessee, there are quite distinct areas at opposite ends of the state that fall into different regions. Only central and eastern Nevada are included in the Western Mountain Region, as the activity of the western part is closely associated with that of California. Some earthquake activity has occurred in the

  8. Precise earthquake locations show evidence of internal structures at intermediate-depth earthquake nests

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Prieto, G.; Florez, M.; Dionicio, V.; Barrett, S. A.; Beroza, G. C.

    2012-12-01

    The mechanism for intermediate depth and deep earthquakes is still under debate. The temperatures and pressures are above the point where ordinary fractures ought to occur. Earthquake nests are regions of highly concentrated seismicity within subducting lithosphere that are isolated from nearby activity and may be key in revealing the mechanics of intermediate-depth earthquakes. We present precise earthquake locations of intermediate-depth earthquakes in the Bucaramanga nest, Colombia using double-difference algorithms combined with depth phases recorded at regional and teleseismic distances. Our results show an alignment of seismicity along subhorizontal and/or subvertical regions within the nest and a preferential location of larger earthquakes at the bottom of the cluster. These observed features might suggest preexisting structures within the subducting slab or some process that allows concentration of deformation and repeating ruptures along fractures.

  9. Earthquake catalog for estimation of maximum earthquake magnitude, Central and Eastern United States: Part B, historical earthquakes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wheeler, Russell L.

    2014-01-01

    Computation of probabilistic earthquake hazard requires an estimate of Mmax: the moment magnitude of the largest earthquake that is thought to be possible within a specified geographic region. The region specified in this report is the Central and Eastern United States and adjacent Canada. Parts A and B of this report describe the construction of a global catalog of moderate to large earthquakes that occurred worldwide in tectonic analogs of the Central and Eastern United States. Examination of histograms of the magnitudes of these earthquakes allows estimation of Central and Eastern United States Mmax. The catalog and Mmax estimates derived from it are used in the 2014 edition of the U.S. Geological Survey national seismic-hazard maps. Part A deals with prehistoric earthquakes, and this part deals with historical events.

  10. Pore-fluid migration and the timing of the 2005 M8.7 Nias earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hughes, K.L.H.; Masterlark, Timothy; Mooney, W.D.

    2011-01-01

    Two great earthquakes have occurred recently along the Sunda Trench, the 2004 M9.2 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake and the 2005 M8.7 Nias earthquake. These earthquakes ruptured over 1600 km of adjacent crust within 3 mo of each other. We quantitatively present poroelastic deformation analyses suggesting that postseismic fluid flow and recovery induced by the Sumatra-Andaman earthquake advanced the timing of the Nias earthquake. Simple back-slip simulations indicate that the megapascal (MPa)-scale pore-pressure recovery is equivalent to 7 yr of interseismic Coulomb stress accumulation near the Nias earthquake hypocenter, implying that pore-pressure recovery of the Sumatra-Andaman earthquake advanced the timing of the Nias earthquake by ~7 yr. That is, in the absence of postseismic pore-pressure recovery, we predict that the Nias earthquake would have occurred in 2011 instead of 2005. ?? 2011 Geological Society of America.

  11. Fault failure with moderate earthquakes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Johnston, M.J.S.; Linde, A.T.; Gladwin, M.T.; Borcherdt, R.D.

    1987-01-01

    High resolution strain and tilt recordings were made in the near-field of, and prior to, the May 1983 Coalinga earthquake (ML = 6.7, ?? = 51 km), the August 4, 1985, Kettleman Hills earthquake (ML = 5.5, ?? = 34 km), the April 1984 Morgan Hill earthquake (ML = 6.1, ?? = 55 km), the November 1984 Round Valley earthquake (ML = 5.8, ?? = 54 km), the January 14, 1978, Izu, Japan earthquake (ML = 7.0, ?? = 28 km), and several other smaller magnitude earthquakes. These recordings were made with near-surface instruments (resolution 10-8), with borehole dilatometers (resolution 10-10) and a 3-component borehole strainmeter (resolution 10-9). While observed coseismic offsets are generally in good agreement with expectations from elastic dislocation theory, and while post-seismic deformation continued, in some cases, with a moment comparable to that of the main shock, preseismic strain or tilt perturbations from hours to seconds (or less) before the main shock are not apparent above the present resolution. Precursory slip for these events, if any occurred, must have had a moment less than a few percent of that of the main event. To the extent that these records reflect general fault behavior, the strong constraint on the size and amount of slip triggering major rupture makes prediction of the onset times and final magnitudes of the rupture zones a difficult task unless the instruments are fortuitously installed near the rupture initiation point. These data are best explained by an inhomogeneous failure model for which various areas of the fault plane have either different stress-slip constitutive laws or spatially varying constitutive parameters. Other work on seismic waveform analysis and synthetic waveforms indicates that the rupturing process is inhomogeneous and controlled by points of higher strength. These models indicate that rupture initiation occurs at smaller regions of higher strength which, when broken, allow runaway catastrophic failure. ?? 1987.

  12. Izmit, Turkey 1999 Earthquake Interferogram

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2001-01-01

    This image is an interferogram that was created using pairs of images taken by Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR). The images, acquired at two different times, have been combined to measure surface deformation or changes that may have occurred during the time between data acquisition. The images were collected by the European Space Agency's Remote Sensing satellite (ERS-2) on 13 August 1999 and 17 September 1999 and were combined to produce these image maps of the apparent surface deformation, or changes, during and after the 17 August 1999 Izmit, Turkey earthquake. This magnitude 7.6 earthquake was the largest in 60 years in Turkey and caused extensive damage and loss of life. Each of the color contours of the interferogram represents 28 mm (1.1 inches) of motion towards the satellite, or about 70 mm (2.8 inches) of horizontal motion. White areas are outside the SAR image or water of seas and lakes. The North Anatolian Fault that broke during the Izmit earthquake moved more than 2.5 meters (8.1 feet) to produce the pattern measured by the interferogram. Thin red lines show the locations of fault breaks mapped on the surface. The SAR interferogram shows that the deformation and fault slip extended west of the surface faults, underneath the Gulf of Izmit. Thick black lines mark the fault rupture inferred from the SAR data. Scientists are using the SAR interferometry along with other data collected on the ground to estimate the pattern of slip that occurred during the Izmit earthquake. This then used to improve computer models that predict how this deformation transferred stress to other faults and to the continuation of the North Anatolian Fault, which extends to the west past the large city of Istanbul. These models show that the Izmit earthquake further increased the already high probability of a major earthquake near Istanbul.

  13. Parallelization of the Coupled Earthquake Model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Block, Gary; Li, P. Peggy; Song, Yuhe T.

    2007-01-01

    This Web-based tsunami simulation system allows users to remotely run a model on JPL s supercomputers for a given undersea earthquake. At the time of this reporting, predicting tsunamis on the Internet has never happened before. This new code directly couples the earthquake model and the ocean model on parallel computers and improves simulation speed. Seismometers can only detect information from earthquakes; they cannot detect whether or not a tsunami may occur as a result of the earthquake. When earthquake-tsunami models are coupled with the improved computational speed of modern, high-performance computers and constrained by remotely sensed data, they are able to provide early warnings for those coastal regions at risk. The software is capable of testing NASA s satellite observations of tsunamis. It has been successfully tested for several historical tsunamis, has passed all alpha and beta testing, and is well documented for users.

  14. Oklahoma's recent earthquakes and saltwater disposal.

    PubMed

    Walsh, F Rall; Zoback, Mark D

    2015-06-01

    Over the past 5 years, parts of Oklahoma have experienced marked increases in the number of small- to moderate-sized earthquakes. In three study areas that encompass the vast majority of the recent seismicity, we show that the increases in seismicity follow 5- to 10-fold increases in the rates of saltwater disposal. Adjacent areas where there has been relatively little saltwater disposal have had comparatively few recent earthquakes. In the areas of seismic activity, the saltwater disposal principally comes from "produced" water, saline pore water that is coproduced with oil and then injected into deeper sedimentary formations. These formations appear to be in hydraulic communication with potentially active faults in crystalline basement, where nearly all the earthquakes are occurring. Although most of the recent earthquakes have posed little danger to the public, the possibility of triggering damaging earthquakes on potentially active basement faults cannot be discounted.

  15. Surface displacements in the 1906 San Francisco and 1989 Loma Prieta Earthquakes

    SciTech Connect

    Segall, P. Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA ); Lisowski, M. )

    1990-11-30

    The horizontal displacements accompanying the 1906 San Francisco earthquake and the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake are computed from geodetic survey measurements. The 1906 earthquake displacement field is entirely consistent with right-lateral strike slip on the San Andreas fault. In contrast, the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake exhibited subequal components of strike slip and reverse faulting. This result, together with other seismic and geologic data, may indicate that the two earthquakes occurred on two different fault planes.

  16. Surface displacements in the 1906 San Francisco and 1989 Loma Prieta earthquakes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Segall, P.; Lisowski, M.

    1990-01-01

    The horizontal displacements accompanying the 1906 San Francisco earthquake and the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake are computed from geodetic survey measurements. The 1906 earthquake displacement field is entirely consistent with right-lateral strike slip on the San Andreas fault. In contrast, the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake exhibited subequal components of strike slip and reverse faulting. This result, together with other seismic and geologic data, may indicate that the two earthquakes occurred on two different fault planes.

  17. Surface displacements in the 1906 san francisco and 1989 loma prieta earthquakes.

    PubMed

    Segall, P; Lisowski, M

    1990-11-30

    The horizontal displacements accompanying the 1906 San Francisco earthquake and the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake are computed from geodetic survey measurements. The 1906 earthquake displacement field is entirely consistent with right-lateral strike slip on the San Andreas fault. In contrast, the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake exhibited subequal components of strike slip and reverse faulting. This result, together with other seismic and geologic data, may indicate that the two earthquakes occurred on two different fault planes.

  18. Continuing megathrust earthquake potential in Chile after the 2014 Iquique earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hayes, Gavin P.; Herman, Matthew W.; Barnhart, William D.; Furlong, Kevin P.; Riquelme, Sebástian; Benz, Harley M.; Bergman, Eric; Barrientos, Sergio; Earle, Paul S.; Samsonov, Sergey

    2014-01-01

    The seismic gap theory identifies regions of elevated hazard based on a lack of recent seismicity in comparison with other portions of a fault. It has successfully explained past earthquakes (see, for example, ref. 2) and is useful for qualitatively describing where large earthquakes might occur. A large earthquake had been expected in the subduction zone adjacent to northern Chile which had not ruptured in a megathrust earthquake since a M ~8.8 event in 1877. On 1 April 2014 a M 8.2 earthquake occurred within this seismic gap. Here we present an assessment of the seismotectonics of the March–April 2014 Iquique sequence, including analyses of earthquake relocations, moment tensors, finite fault models, moment deficit calculations and cumulative Coulomb stress transfer. This ensemble of information allows us to place the sequence within the context of regional seismicity and to identify areas of remaining and/or elevated hazard. Our results constrain the size and spatial extent of rupture, and indicate that this was not the earthquake that had been anticipated. Significant sections of the northern Chile subduction zone have not ruptured in almost 150 years, so it is likely that future megathrust earthquakes will occur to the south and potentially to the north of the 2014 Iquique sequence.

  19. Issues on the Japanese Earthquake Hazard Evaluation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hashimoto, M.; Fukushima, Y.; Sagiya, T.

    2013-12-01

    The 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake forced the policy of counter-measurements to earthquake disasters, including earthquake hazard evaluations, to be changed in Japan. Before the March 11, Japanese earthquake hazard evaluation was based on the history of earthquakes that repeatedly occurs and the characteristic earthquake model. The source region of an earthquake was identified and its occurrence history was revealed. Then the conditional probability was estimated using the renewal model. However, the Japanese authorities changed the policy after the megathrust earthquake in 2011 such that the largest earthquake in a specific seismic zone should be assumed on the basis of available scientific knowledge. According to this policy, three important reports were issued during these two years. First, the Central Disaster Management Council issued a new estimate of damages by a hypothetical Mw9 earthquake along the Nankai trough during 2011 and 2012. The model predicts a 34 m high tsunami on the southern Shikoku coast and intensity 6 or higher on the JMA scale in most area of Southwest Japan as the maximum. Next, the Earthquake Research Council revised the long-term earthquake hazard evaluation of earthquakes along the Nankai trough in May 2013, which discarded the characteristic earthquake model and put much emphasis on the diversity of earthquakes. The so-called 'Tokai' earthquake was negated in this evaluation. Finally, another report by the CDMC concluded that, with the current knowledge, it is hard to predict the occurrence of large earthquakes along the Nankai trough using the present techniques, based on the diversity of earthquake phenomena. These reports created sensations throughout the country and local governments are struggling to prepare counter-measurements. These reports commented on large uncertainty in their evaluation near their ends, but are these messages transmitted properly to the public? Earthquake scientists, including authors, are involved in

  20. Earthquake Occurrence in Bangladesh and Surrounding Region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Al-Hussaini, T. M.; Al-Noman, M.

    2011-12-01

    The collision of the northward moving Indian plate with the Eurasian plate is the cause of frequent earthquakes in the region comprising Bangladesh and neighbouring India, Nepal and Myanmar. Historical records indicate that Bangladesh has been affected by five major earthquakes of magnitude greater than 7.0 (Richter scale) during 1869 to 1930. This paper presents some statistical observations of earthquake occurrence in fulfilment of a basic groundwork for seismic hazard assessment of this region. An up to date catalogue covering earthquake information in the region bounded within 17°-30°N and 84°-97°E for the period of historical period to 2010 is derived from various reputed international sources including ISC, IRIS, Indian sources and available publications. Careful scrutiny is done to remove duplicate or uncertain earthquake events. Earthquake magnitudes in the range of 1.8 to 8.1 have been obtained and relationships between different magnitude scales have been studied. Aftershocks are removed from the catalogue using magnitude dependent space window and time window. The main shock data are then analyzed to obtain completeness period for different magnitudes evaluating their temporal homogeneity. Spatial and temporal distribution of earthquakes, magnitude-depth histograms and other statistical analysis are performed to understand the distribution of seismic activity in this region.

  1. Frog Swarms: Earthquake Precursors or False Alarms?

    PubMed Central

    Grant, Rachel A.; Conlan, Hilary

    2013-01-01

    Simple Summary Media reports linking unusual animal behaviour with earthquakes can potentially create false alarms and unnecessary anxiety among people that live in earthquake risk zones. Recently large frog swarms in China and elsewhere have been reported as earthquake precursors in the media. By examining international media reports of frog swarms since 1850 in comparison to earthquake data, it was concluded that frog swarms are naturally occurring dispersal behaviour of juveniles and are not associated with earthquakes. However, the media in seismic risk areas may be more likely to report frog swarms, and more likely to disseminate reports on frog swarms after earthquakes have occurred, leading to an apparent link between frog swarms and earthquakes. Abstract In short-term earthquake risk forecasting, the avoidance of false alarms is of utmost importance to preclude the possibility of unnecessary panic among populations in seismic hazard areas. Unusual animal behaviour prior to earthquakes has been reported for millennia but has rarely been scientifically documented. Recently large migrations or unusual behaviour of amphibians have been linked to large earthquakes, and media reports of large frog and toad migrations in areas of high seismic risk such as Greece and China have led to fears of a subsequent large earthquake. However, at certain times of year large migrations are part of the normal behavioural repertoire of amphibians. News reports of “frog swarms” from 1850 to the present day were examined for evidence that this behaviour is a precursor to large earthquakes. It was found that only two of 28 reported frog swarms preceded large earthquakes (Sichuan province, China in 2008 and 2010). All of the reported mass migrations of amphibians occurred in late spring, summer and autumn and appeared to relate to small juvenile anurans (frogs and toads). It was concluded that most reported “frog swarms” are actually normal behaviour, probably caused by

  2. Napa Earthquake impact on water systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, J.

    2014-12-01

    South Napa earthquake occurred in Napa, California on August 24 at 3am, local time, and the magnitude is 6.0. The earthquake was the largest in SF Bay Area since the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake. Economic loss topped $ 1 billion. Wine makers cleaning up and estimated the damage on tourism. Around 15,000 cases of lovely cabernet were pouring into the garden at the Hess Collection. Earthquake potentially raise water pollution risks, could cause water crisis. CA suffered water shortage recent years, and it could be helpful on how to prevent underground/surface water pollution from earthquake. This research gives a clear view on drinking water system in CA, pollution on river systems, as well as estimation on earthquake impact on water supply. The Sacramento-San Joaquin River delta (close to Napa), is the center of the state's water distribution system, delivering fresh water to more than 25 million residents and 3 million acres of farmland. Delta water conveyed through a network of levees is crucial to Southern California. The drought has significantly curtailed water export, and salt water intrusion reduced fresh water outflows. Strong shaking from a nearby earthquake can cause saturated, loose, sandy soils liquefaction, and could potentially damage major delta levee systems near Napa. Napa earthquake is a wake-up call for Southern California. It could potentially damage freshwater supply system.

  3. Control of seafloor roughness on earthquake rupture behavior

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bilek, Susan L.; Schwartz, Susan Y.; Deshon, Heather R.

    2003-05-01

    Earthquake rupture complexity is described for three recent large underthrusting earthquakes along the Costa Rican subduction zone, the 1983 Osa, 1990 Nicoya Gulf, and 1999 Quepos events. These earthquakes occurred in regions characterized by distinctly different morphologic features on the subducting plate. The 1990 and 1999 events occurred along linear projections of subducting seamount chains and had fairly simple earthquake rupture histories. Both events are interpreted as failure of the basal contact of closely spaced isolated seamounts acting as asperities. In contrast, the 1983 event occurred along the subducting Cocos Ridge and had a complex rupture history. Comparison of rupture characteristics of these large underthrusting earthquakes with size and location of subducting features provides evidence that seamounts can be subducted to seismogenic depths and that variations in seafloor bathymetry of the subducting plate strongly influence the earthquake rupture process.

  4. Catalog of significant historical earthquakes in the Central United States

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bakun, W.H.; Hopper, M.G.

    2004-01-01

    We use Modified Mercalli intensity assignments to estimate source locations and moment magnitude M for eighteen 19th-century and twenty early- 20th-century earthquakes in the central United States (CUS) for which estimates of M are otherwise not available. We use these estimates, and locations and M estimated elsewhere, to compile a catelog of significant historical earthquakes in the CUS. The 1811-1812 New Madrid earthquakes apparently dominated CUS seismicity in the first two decades of the 19th century. M5-6 earthquakes occurred in the New Madrid Seismic Zone in 1843 and 1878, but none have occurred since 1878. There has been persistent seismic activity in the Illinois Basin in southern Illinois and Indiana, with M > 5.0 earthquakes in 1895, 1909, 1917, 1968, and 1987. Four other M > 5.0 CUS historical earthquakes have occurred: in Kansas in 1867, in Nebraska in 1877, in Oklahoma in 1882, and in Kentucky in 1980.

  5. Fault Tolerant Frequent Pattern Mining

    SciTech Connect

    Shohdy, Sameh; Vishnu, Abhinav; Agrawal, Gagan

    2016-12-19

    FP-Growth algorithm is a Frequent Pattern Mining (FPM) algorithm that has been extensively used to study correlations and patterns in large scale datasets. While several researchers have designed distributed memory FP-Growth algorithms, it is pivotal to consider fault tolerant FP-Growth, which can address the increasing fault rates in large scale systems. In this work, we propose a novel parallel, algorithm-level fault-tolerant FP-Growth algorithm. We leverage algorithmic properties and MPI advanced features to guarantee an O(1) space complexity, achieved by using the dataset memory space itself for checkpointing. We also propose a recovery algorithm that can use in-memory and disk-based checkpointing, though in many cases the recovery can be completed without any disk access, and incurring no memory overhead for checkpointing. We evaluate our FT algorithm on a large scale InfiniBand cluster with several large datasets using up to 2K cores. Our evaluation demonstrates excellent efficiency for checkpointing and recovery in comparison to the disk-based approach. We have also observed 20x average speed-up in comparison to Spark, establishing that a well designed algorithm can easily outperform a solution based on a general fault-tolerant programming model.

  6. Loss estimation of Membramo earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Damanik, R.; Sedayo, H.

    2016-05-01

    Papua Tectonics are dominated by the oblique collision of the Pacific plate along the north side of the island. A very high relative plate motions (i.e. 120 mm/year) between the Pacific and Papua-Australian Plates, gives this region a very high earthquake production rate, about twice as much as that of Sumatra, the western margin of Indonesia. Most of the seismicity occurring beneath the island of New Guinea is clustered near the Huon Peninsula, the Mamberamo region, and the Bird's Neck. At 04:41 local time(GMT+9), July 28th 2015, a large earthquake of Mw = 7.0 occurred at West Mamberamo Fault System. The earthquake focal mechanism are dominated by northwest-trending thrust mechanisms. GMPE and ATC vulnerability curve were used to estimate distribution of damage. Mean of estimated losses was caused by this earthquake is IDR78.6 billion. We estimated insurance loss will be only small portion in total general due to deductible.

  7. Non-Double-Couple Earthquakes 2. Observations

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Miller, A.D.; Foulger, G.R.; Julian, B.R.

    1998-01-01

    Most studies assume that earthquakes have double-couple (DC) source mechanisms, corresponding to shear motion on planar faults. However, many well-recorded earthquakes have radiation patterns that depart radically from this model, indicating fundamentally different source processes. Seismic waves excited by advective processes, such as landslides and volcanic eruptions, are consistent with net forces rather than DCs. Some volcanic earthquakes also have single-force mechanisms, probably because of advection of magmatic fluids. Other volcanic earthquakes have mechanisms close to compensated linear vector dipoles and may be caused by magmatic intrusions. Shallow earthquakes in volcanic or geothermal areas and mines often have mechanisms with isotropic components, indicating volume changes of either explosive or implosive polarity. Such mechanisms are consistent with failure involving both shear and tensile faulting, which may be facilitated by high-pressure, high-temperature fluids. In mines, tunnels are cavities that may close. Deep-focus earthquakes occur within zones of polymorphic phase transformations in the upper mantle at depths where stick-slip instability cannot occur. Their mechanisms tend to be deviatoric (volume conserving), but non-DC, and their source processes are poorly understood. Automatic global moment tensor services routinely report statistically significant non-DC components for large earthquakes, but detailed reexamination of individual events is required to confirm such results.

  8. Multiple asperity model for earthquake prediction

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wyss, M.; Johnston, A.C.; Klein, F.W.

    1981-01-01

    Large earthquakes often occur as multiple ruptures reflecting strong variations of stress level along faults. Dense instrument networks with which the volcano Kilauea is monitored provided detailed data on changes of seismic velocity, strain accumulation and earthquake occurrence rate before the 1975 Hawaii 7.2-mag earthquake. During the ???4 yr of preparation time the mainshock source volume had separated into crustal volumes of high stress levels embedded in a larger low-stress volume, showing respectively high- and low-stress precursory anomalies. ?? 1981 Nature Publishing Group.

  9. Earthquake rate and magnitude distributions of great earthquakes for use in global forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kagan, Yan Y.; Jackson, David D.

    2016-07-01

    We have obtained new results in the statistical analysis of global earthquake catalogues with special attention to the largest earthquakes, and we examined the statistical behaviour of earthquake rate variations. These results can serve as an input for updating our recent earthquake forecast, known as the `Global Earthquake Activity Rate 1' model (GEAR1), which is based on past earthquakes and geodetic strain rates. The GEAR1 forecast is expressed as the rate density of all earthquakes above magnitude 5.8 within 70 km of sea level everywhere on earth at 0.1 × 0.1 degree resolution, and it is currently being tested by the Collaboratory for Study of Earthquake Predictability. The seismic component of the present model is based on a smoothed version of the Global Centroid Moment Tensor (GCMT) catalogue from 1977 through 2013. The tectonic component is based on the Global Strain Rate Map, a `General Earthquake Model' (GEM) product. The forecast was optimized to fit the GCMT data from 2005 through 2012, but it also fit well the earthquake locations from 1918 to 1976 reported in the International Seismological Centre-Global Earthquake Model (ISC-GEM) global catalogue of instrumental and pre-instrumental magnitude determinations. We have improved the recent forecast by optimizing the treatment of larger magnitudes and including a longer duration (1918-2011) ISC-GEM catalogue of large earthquakes to estimate smoothed seismicity. We revised our estimates of upper magnitude limits, described as corner magnitudes, based on the massive earthquakes since 2004 and the seismic moment conservation principle. The new corner magnitude estimates are somewhat larger than but consistent with our previous estimates. For major subduction zones we find the best estimates of corner magnitude to be in the range 8.9 to 9.6 and consistent with a uniform average of 9.35. Statistical estimates tend to grow with time as larger earthquakes occur. However, by using the moment conservation

  10. The Nankai Trough earthquake tsunamis in Korea: numerical studies of the 1707 Hoei earthquake and physics-based scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, SatByul; Saito, Tatsuhiko; Fukuyama, Eiichi; Kang, Tae-Seob

    2016-04-01

    Historical documents in Korea and China report abnormal waves in the sea and rivers close to the date of the 1707 Hoei earthquake, which occurred in the Nankai Trough, off southwestern Japan. This indicates that the tsunami caused by the Hoei earthquake might have reached Korea and China, which suggests a potential hazard in Korea from large earthquakes in the Nankai Trough. We conducted tsunami simulations to study the details of tsunamis in Korea caused by large earthquakes. Our results showed that the Hoei earthquake (Mw 8.8) tsunami reached the Korean Peninsula about 200 min after the earthquake occurred. The maximum tsunami height was ~0.5 m along the Korean coast. The model of the Hoei earthquake predicted a long-lasting tsunami whose highest peak arrived 600 min later after the first arrival near the coastline of Jeju Island. In addition, we conducted tsunami simulations using physics-based scenarios of anticipated earthquakes in the Nankai subduction zone. The maximum tsunami height in the scenarios (Mw 8.5-8.6) was ~0.4 m along the Korean coast. As a simple evaluation of larger possible tsunamis, we increased the amount of stress released by the earthquake by a factor of two and three, resulting in scenarios for Mw 8.8 and 8.9 earthquakes, respectively. The tsunami height increased by 0.1-0.4 m compared to that estimated by the Hoei earthquake.

  11. Earthquake friction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mulargia, Francesco; Bizzarri, Andrea

    2016-12-01

    Laboratory friction slip experiments on rocks provide firm evidence that the static friction coefficient μ has values ∼0.7. This would imply large amounts of heat produced by seismically active faults, but no heat flow anomaly is observed, and mineralogic evidence of frictional heating is virtually absent. This stands for lower μ values ∼0.2, as also required by the observed orientation of faults with respect to the maximum compressive stress. We show that accounting for the thermal and mechanical energy balance of the system removes this inconsistence, implying a multi-stage strain release process. The first stage consists of a small and slow aseismic slip at high friction on pre-existent stress concentrators within the fault volume but angled with the main fault as Riedel cracks. This introduces a second stage dominated by frictional temperature increase inducing local pressurization of pore fluids around the slip patches, which is in turn followed by a third stage in which thermal diffusion extends the frictionally heated zones making them coalesce into a connected pressurized region oriented as the fault plane. Then, the system enters a state of equivalent low static friction in which it can undergo the fast elastic radiation slip prescribed by dislocation earthquake models.

  12. Rupture process of the 2015 Mw7.9 Nepal earthquake from the joint inversion

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hao, J.; Wang, W.; Zhou, Y.; Yao, Z.

    2015-12-01

    The 25 April 2015 earthquake (Mw7.9) struck Nepal near the middle segment of Himalaya. Large earthquakes occurred around this region frequently in history. The rupture process could help us to investigate the characters of the disaster earthquakes. For this event many kinds of observation data could be used to constrain the rupture process. Data of some 1Hz GPS stations of the China Crustal Movement Observation Network were processed by the software GAMIT and we obtained the waveforms of this earthquake. The waveforms of several 5Hz GPS stations near the epicenter were provided by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) (http://aria-share.jpl.nasa.gov/events/20150425-Nepal_EQ/GPS/). The ALOS-2 satellite, operated by the Japanese Space Agency, collected a useful of L-band InSAR data and Lindsey et al. determined the coseismic displacement of the line-of-sight (http://topex.ucsd.edu/nepal/). We resampled the coseismic displacement of Lindsey et al. to constrain the rupture process. In addition teleseismic broadband body waves, long period surface waves, waveforms of one regional broadband station and one local strong motion station were combined in the joint inversion. The epicenter of United States Geological Survey (USGS) and the mechanism of Global Centroid Moment Tensor (GCMT) were applied. The Mw 7.9 earthquake ruptured a thrust fault orienting 293o and dipping 7o to the NE, locating near the middle segment of Himalaya. This earthquake was a unilateral event and the rupture of asperity mainly propagates to the southeast, spanning a depth range from 8 km to 18 km. The inverted slip distribution is dominated by a rectangle shape slip patch with the length of ~120km. The weighted rupture velocity is about 2.1 km/s and the total seismic moment is about 8.6x1020 Nm. The imaged fault slip correlates well with the aftershock distribution.

  13. In search of earthquake-related hydrologic and chemical changes along Hayward Fault

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    King, C.-Y.; Basler, D.; Presser, T.S.; Evans, William C.; White, L.D.; Minissale, A.

    1994-01-01

    Flow and chemical measurements have been made about once a month, and more frequently when required, since 1976 at two springs in Alum Rock Park in eastern San Jose, California, and since 1980 at two shallow wells in eastern Oakland in search of earthquake-related changes. All sites are on or near the Hayward Fault and are about 55 km apart. Temperature, electric conductivity, and water level or flow rate were measured in situ with portable instruments. Water samples were collected for later chemical and isotopic analyses in the laboratory. The measured flow rate at one of the springs showed a long-term decrease of about 40% since 1987, when a multi-year drought began in California. It also showed several increases that lasted a few days to a few months with amplitudes of 2.4 to 8.6 times the standard deviations above the background rate. Five of these increases were recorded shortly after nearby earthquakes of magnitude 5.0 or larger, and may have resulted from unclogging of the flow path and increase of permeability caused by strong seismic shaking. Two other flow increases were possibly induced by exceptionally heavy rainfalls. The water in both wells showed seasonal temperature and chemical variations, largely in response to rainfall. In 1980 the water also showed some clear chemical changes unrelated to rainfall that lasted a few months; these changes were followed by a magnitude 4 earthquake 37 km away. The chemical composition at one of the wells and at the springs also showed some longer-term variations that were not correlated with rainfall but possibly correlated with the five earthquakes mentioned above. These correlations suggest a common tectonic origin for the earthquakes and the anomalies. The last variation at the affected well occurred abruptly in 1989, shortly before a magnitude 5.0 earthquake 54 km away. ?? 1993.

  14. A Statistical Analysis of Lunisolar-Earthquake Connections

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rüegg, Christian Michael-André

    2012-11-01

    Despite over a century of study, the relationship between lunar cycles and earthquakes remains controversial and difficult to quantitatively investigate. Perhaps as a consequence, major earthquakes around the globe are frequently followed by "prediction claim", using lunar cycles, that generate media furore and pressure scientists to provide resolute answers. The 2010-2011 Canterbury earthquakes in New Zealand were no exception; significant media attention was given to lunar derived earthquake predictions by non-scientists, even though the predictions were merely "opinions" and were not based on any statistically robust temporal or causal relationships. This thesis provides a framework for studying lunisolar earthquake temporal relationships by developing replicable statistical methodology based on peer reviewed literature. Notable in the methodology is a high accuracy ephemeris, called ECLPSE, designed specifically by the author for use on earthquake catalogs and a model for performing phase angle analysis.

  15. Research on earthquake prediction from infrared cloud images

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fan, Jing; Chen, Zhong; Yan, Liang; Gong, Jing; Wang, Dong

    2015-12-01

    In recent years, the occurrence of large earthquakes is frequent all over the word. In the face of the inevitable natural disasters, the prediction of the earthquake is particularly important to avoid more loss of life and property. Many achievements in the field of predict earthquake from remote sensing images have been obtained in the last few decades. But the traditional prediction methods presented do have the limitations of can't forecast epicenter location accurately and automatically. In order to solve the problem, a new predicting earthquakes method based on extract the texture and emergence frequency of the earthquake cloud is proposed in this paper. First, strengthen the infrared cloud images. Second, extract the texture feature vector of each pixel. Then, classified those pixels and converted to several small suspected area. Finally, tracking the suspected area and estimate the possible location. The inversion experiment of Ludian earthquake show that this approach can forecast the seismic center feasible and accurately.

  16. Combined GPS and InSAR models of postseismic deformation from the Northridge Earthquake

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Donnellan, A.; Parker, J. W.; Peltzer, G.

    2002-01-01

    Models of combined Global Positioning System and Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar data collected in the region of the Northridge earthquake indicate that significant afterslip on the main fault occurred following the earthquake.

  17. Earthquake and the Catastrophic End of the Late Bronze Age in the Eastern Mediterranean

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nur, A.

    2009-04-01

    The reasons for the catastrophic and wide spread political as well as physical collapse in the Aegean and Eastern Mediterranean areas that define the end of the Bronze age ca. 1225 BC to 1175 BC remain a major enigma. It has been attributed by historian to attacks by outsiders with the most favored group being the (enigmatic) so-called sea people. Unfortunately there is no real evidence for this. However combined geological, geophysical and archaeological evidence suggests that earthquakes may have played a key role in this extraordinary collapse during the late 13th and early 12th centuries . Based on the instrumentally recorded earthquakes occurring in the Aegean and Eastern Mediterranean region during the 20th century, several events that have clear historical information, and the geography of seismically active faults it is obvious that numerous earthquakes of magnitude 6·5 or greater (enough to destroy modern buildings, let alone those of antiquity) occurred here frequently in the past. Furthermore major earthquakes often occur in this region in groups, known as ‘‘sequences'' or ‘‘storms'', in which one large quake is followed days, months, or a few years later by others elsewhere on the plate boundary fault lines. When a map of the areas in the Aegean and Eastern Mediterranean region shaken by 20th century  earthquakes of magnitude 6·5 and greater and with an intensity of VII or greater is overlaid on Robert Drews' map of sites destroyed in these same regions during the so-called ‘‘Catastrophe'' near the end of the Late Bronze Age, it is readily apparent that virtually all of these LBA sites lie within the affected (‘‘high-shaking'') areas. This would suggest that a major ‘‘earthquake storm'' may have occurred in the Late Bronze Age Aegean and Eastern Mediterranean during the years 1225-1175 . This ‘‘storm'' may have interacted with societal, political and economic forces at work in these areas c. 1200  and

  18. The Cascadia Subduction Zone and related subduction systems: seismic structure, intraslab earthquakes and processes, and earthquake hazards

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kirby, Stephen H.; Wang, Kelin; Dunlop, Susan

    2002-01-01

    The following report is the principal product of an international workshop titled “Intraslab Earthquakes in the Cascadia Subduction System: Science and Hazards” and was sponsored by the U.S. Geological Survey, the Geological Survey of Canada and the University of Victoria. This meeting was held at the University of Victoria’s Dunsmuir Lodge, Vancouver Island, British Columbia, Canada on September 18–21, 2000 and brought 46 participants from the U.S., Canada, Latin America and Japan. This gathering was organized to bring together active research investigators in the science of subduction and intraslab earthquake hazards. Special emphasis was given to “warm-slab” subduction systems, i.e., those systems involving young oceanic lithosphere subducting at moderate to slow rates, such as the Cascadia system in the U.S. and Canada, and the Nankai system in Japan. All the speakers and poster presenters provided abstracts of their presentations that were a made available in an abstract volume at the workshop. Most of the authors subsequently provided full articles or extended abstracts for this volume on the topics that they discussed at the workshop. Where updated versions were not provided, the original workshop abstracts have been included. By organizing this workshop and assembling this volume, our aim is to provide a global perspective on the science of warm-slab subduction, to thereby advance our understanding of internal slab processes and to use this understanding to improve appraisals of the hazards associated with large intraslab earthquakes in the Cascadia system. These events have been the most frequent and damaging earthquakes in western Washington State over the last century. As if to underscore this fact, just six months after this workshop was held, the magnitude 6.8 Nisqually earthquake occurred on February 28th, 2001 at a depth of about 55 km in the Juan de Fuca slab beneath the southern Puget Sound region of western Washington. The Governor

  19. Children and the San Fernando earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Howard, S. J.

    1980-01-01

    Before dawn, on February 9, 1971, a magnitude 6.4 earthquake occurred in the San Fernando Valley of California. On the following day, theSan Fernando Valley Child Guidance Clinic, through radio and newspapers, offered mental health crises services to children frightened by the earthquake. Response to this invitation was immediate and almost overwhelming. During the first 2 weeks, the Clinic's staff counseled hundreds of children who were experiencing various degrees of anxiety. 

  20. Automatic recognition of seismic intensity based on RS and GIS: a case study in Wenchuan Ms8.0 earthquake of China.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Qiuwen; Zhang, Yan; Yang, Xiaohong; Su, Bin

    2014-01-01

    In recent years, earthquakes have frequently occurred all over the world, which caused huge casualties and economic losses. It is very necessary and urgent to obtain the seismic intensity map timely so as to master the distribution of the disaster and provide supports for quick earthquake relief. Compared with traditional methods of drawing seismic intensity map, which require many investigations in the field of earthquake area or are too dependent on the empirical formulas, spatial information technologies such as Remote Sensing (RS) and Geographical Information System (GIS) can provide fast and economical way to automatically recognize the seismic intensity. With the integrated application of RS and GIS, this paper proposes a RS/GIS-based approach for automatic recognition of seismic intensity, in which RS is used to retrieve and extract the information on damages caused by earthquake, and GIS is applied to manage and display the data of seismic intensity. The case study in Wenchuan Ms8.0 earthquake in China shows that the information on seismic intensity can be automatically extracted from remotely sensed images as quickly as possible after earthquake occurrence, and the Digital Intensity Model (DIM) can be used to visually query and display the distribution of seismic intensity.

  1. The aftershock processes of strong earthquakes in the Western Caucasus

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baranov, S. V.; Gabsatarova, I. P.

    2015-05-01

    The aftershock processes of the four strong earthquakes that occurred in the Western Caucasus from 1991 to June 2013 are considered. The main shocks of these earthquakes include the first Racha earthquake (April 29, 1991, Ms = 6.9); second Racha earthquake (June 15, 1991, Ms = 6.2); Oni earthquake (September 7, 2009, Ms = 5.8); and East Black Sea earthquake (December 23, 2012, Ms = 5.6). Based on the simulations with the LPL relaxation model and the ETAS model of triggered seismicity, the differences in the properties of the aftershock processes and the characteristics of the fault zones accommodating the main shocks are revealed. The nonrelaxation character of the aftershocks from the East Black Sea earthquake is established. It is hypothesized and validated that this is a result of the violation of the fluid-dynamic equilibrium in the fault zone due to the destruction of the gas hydrate layer by the main shock and strong aftershocks.

  2. A Decade of Giant Earthquakes - What does it mean?

    SciTech Connect

    Wallace, Terry C. Jr.

    2012-07-16

    On December 26, 2004 the largest earthquake since 1964 occurred near Ache, Indonesia. The magnitude 9.2 earthquake and subsequent tsunami killed a quarter of million people; it also marked the being of a period of extraordinary seismicity. Since the Ache earthquake there have been 16 magnitude 8 earthquakes globally, including 2 this last April. For the 100 years previous to 2004 there was an average of 1 magnitude 8 earthquake every 2.2 years; since 2004 there has been 2 per year. Since magnitude 8 earthquakes dominate global seismic energy release, this period of seismicity has seismologist rethinking what they understand about plate tectonics and the connectivity between giant earthquakes. This talk will explore this remarkable period of time and its possible implications.

  3. Remote monitoring of the earthquake cycle using satellite radar interferometry.

    PubMed

    Wright, Tim J

    2002-12-15

    The earthquake cycle is poorly understood. Earthquakes continue to occur on previously unrecognized faults. Earthquake prediction seems impossible. These remain the facts despite nearly 100 years of intensive study since the earthquake cycle was first conceptualized. Using data acquired from satellites in orbit 800 km above the Earth, a new technique, radar interferometry (InSAR), has the potential to solve these problems. For the first time, detailed maps of the warping of the Earth's surface during the earthquake cycle can be obtained with a spatial resolution of a few tens of metres and a precision of a few millimetres. InSAR does not need equipment on the ground or expensive field campaigns, so it can gather crucial data on earthquakes and the seismic cycle from some of the remotest areas of the planet. In this article, I review some of the remarkable observations of the earthquake cycle already made using radar interferometry and speculate on breakthroughs that are tantalizingly close.

  4. Oceanic earthquakes and the tectonic evolution of oceanic lithosphere

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Solomon, Sean C.

    1988-01-01

    The body waveform inversion method of Nabelek (1984) is used to study the centroid depths and source properties of oceanic earthquakes. The source parameters for 50 earthquakes which occurred along slowly spreading midocean ridges between 1962 and 1983 are used to examine the mechanical characteristics of the median valley, including the water depth in the epicentral region, the depth range of seismic faulting, the centroid depth and seismic moment versus spreading rate, and the seismic moment budget. The locations and source characteristics of oceanic intraplate earthquakes are discussed, including near-ridge earthquakes, lithospheric stress, and earthquakes in older oceanic lithosphere. The results suggest that the median valley form by the necking of a strong layer. The properties of near-ridge earthquakes support the hypothesis that thermal stress generated by diferential cooling of the plate can be stored and accumulated over millions of years. Earthquakes in older oceanic lithosphere are most likely to reflect stresses generated by plate driving forces.

  5. Frequent video game players resist perceptual interference.

    PubMed

    Berard, Aaron V; Cain, Matthew S; Watanabe, Takeo; Sasaki, Yuka

    2015-01-01

    Playing certain types of video games for a long time can improve a wide range of mental processes, from visual acuity to cognitive control. Frequent gamers have also displayed generalized improvements in perceptual learning. In the Texture Discrimination Task (TDT), a widely used perceptual learning paradigm, participants report the orientation of a target embedded in a field of lines and demonstrate robust over-night improvement. However, changing the orientation of the background lines midway through TDT training interferes with overnight improvements in overall performance on TDT. Interestingly, prior research has suggested that this effect will not occur if a one-hour break is allowed in between the changes. These results have suggested that after training is over, it may take some time for learning to become stabilized and resilient against interference. Here, we tested whether frequent gamers have faster stabilization of perceptual learning compared to non-gamers and examined the effect of daily video game playing on interference of training of TDT with one background orientation on perceptual learning of TDT with a different background orientation. As a result, we found that non-gamers showed overnight performance improvement only on one background orientation, replicating previous results with the interference in TDT. In contrast, frequent gamers demonstrated overnight improvements in performance with both background orientations, suggesting that they are better able to overcome interference in perceptual learning. This resistance to interference suggests that video game playing not only enhances the amplitude and speed of perceptual learning but also leads to faster and/or more robust stabilization of perceptual learning.

  6. Re-evaluation Of The Shallow Seismicity On Mt Etna Applying Probabilistic Earthquake Location Algorithms.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tuve, T.; Mostaccio, A.; Langer, H. K.; di Grazia, G.

    2005-12-01

    A recent research project carried out together with the Italian Civil Protection concerns the study of amplitude decay laws in various areas on the Italian territory, including Mt Etna. A particular feature of seismic activity is the presence of moderate magnitude earthquakes causing frequently considerable damage in the epicentre areas. These earthquakes are supposed to occur at rather shallow depth, no more than 5 km. Given the geological context, however, these shallow earthquakes would origin in rather weak sedimentary material. In this study we check the reliability of standard earthquake location, in particular with respect to the calculated focal depth, using standard location methods as well as more advanced approaches such as the NONLINLOC software proposed by Lomax et al. (2000) using it with its various options (i.e., Grid Search, Metropolis-Gibbs and Oct-Tree) and 3D velocity model (Cocina et al., 2005). All three options of NONLINLOC gave comparable results with respect to hypocenter locations and quality. Compared to standard locations we note a significant improve of location quality and, in particular a considerable difference of focal depths (in the order of 1.5 - 2 km). However, we cannot find a clear bias towards greater or lower depth. Further analyses concern the assessment of the stability of locations. For this purpose we carry out various Monte Carlo experiments perturbing travel time reading randomly. Further investigations are devoted to possible biases which may arise from the use of an unsuitable velocity model.

  7. Scenarios of tsunamigenic earthquakes generated along the Hellenic subduction zone and impact along the French coastlines

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gailler, Audrey; Hébert, Hélène; Schindelé, François

    2016-04-01

    The Hellenic subduction is an active deformation zone characterized by a sustained day-to-day seismicity (magnitude < 4.5) among the strongest in Europe. The last significant earthquake along the Hellenic subduction zone detected and characterized by the French tsunami warning center (CENALT) occurred on 16th April 2015 (Mw = 6.0) along the southeastern coasts of Crete, without any tsunami risk for the French coastlines. Even if great subduction earthquakes (magnitude > 7.5) are less frequent than in Chile or Japan, the Hellenic area experienced several strong events by the past, the biggest being associated with major tsunamis (e.g., in 551, in 1303). The last known sequence dates the end of the 19th beginning of the 20th century with a seismic gap located along the South Peloponnese - West Crete segment. The legendary 365 AD great earthquake (magnitude 8 to 8.5) is assumed to have ruptured along a major inverse fault parallel to the trench in this area, generating a large tsunami observed up to the Adriatic. In this work we investigate the tsunami potential of earthquakes localized along the Hellenic subduction zone, especially the minimum magnitude required to generate a tsunami that would be able to cross from Eastern to Western Mediterranean. The impact along Corsica coastlines is discussed through the modeling of a set of tsunami scenarios (magnitude ranging from 8.0 to 8.5) established from historical events parameters.

  8. Precursory seismicity associated with frequent, large ice avalanches on Iliamna Volcano, Alaska, USA

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Caplan-Auerbach, Jacqueline; Huggel, C.

    2007-01-01

    Since 1994, at least six major (volume>106 m3) ice and rock avalanches have occurred on Iliamna volcano, Alaska, USA. Each of the avalanches was preceded by up to 2 hours of seismicity believed to represent the initial stages of failure. Each seismic sequence begins with a series of repeating earthquakes thought to represent slip on an ice-rock interface, or between layers of ice. This stage is followed by a prolonged period of continuous ground-shaking that reflects constant slip accommodated by deformation at the glacier base. Finally the glacier fails in a large avalanche. Some of the events appear to have entrained large amounts of rock, while others comprise mostly snow and ice. Several avalanches initiated from the same source region, suggesting that this part of the volcano is particularly susceptible to failure, possibly due to the presence of nearby fumaroles. Although thermal conditions at the time of failure are not well constrained, it is likely that geothermal energy causes melting at the glacier base, promoting slip and culminating in failure. The frequent nature and predictable failure sequence of Iliamna avalanches makes the volcano an excellent laboratory for the study of ice avalanches. The prolonged nature of the seismic signal suggests that warning may one day be given for similar events occurring in populated regions.

  9. Repeating Earthquakes Following an Mw 4.4 Earthquake Near Luther, Oklahoma

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Clements, T.; Keranen, K. M.; Savage, H. M.

    2015-12-01

    An Mw 4.4 earthquake on April 16, 2013 near Luther, OK was one of the earliest M4+ earthquakes in central Oklahoma, following the Prague sequence in 2011. A network of four local broadband seismometers deployed within a day of the Mw 4.4 event, along with six Oklahoma netquake stations, recorded more than 500 aftershocks in the two weeks following the Luther earthquake. Here we use HypoDD (Waldhauser & Ellsworth, 2000) and waveform cross-correlation to obtain precise aftershock locations. The location uncertainty, calculated using the SVD method in HypoDD, is ~15 m horizontally and ~ 35 m vertically. The earthquakes define a near vertical, NE-SW striking fault plane. Events occur at depths from 2 km to 3.5 km within the granitic basement, with a small fraction of events shallower, near the sediment-basement interface. Earthquakes occur within a zone of ~200 meters thickness on either side of the best-fitting fault surface. We use an equivalency class algorithm to identity clusters of repeating events, defined as event pairs with median three-component correlation > 0.97 across common stations (Aster & Scott, 1993). Repeating events occur as doublets of only two events in over 50% of cases; overall, 41% of earthquakes recorded occur as repeating events. The recurrence intervals for the repeating events range from minutes to days, with common recurrence intervals of less than two minutes. While clusters occur in tight dimensions, commonly of 80 m x 200 m, aftershocks occur in 3 distinct ~2km x 2km-sized patches along the fault. Our analysis suggests that with rapidly deployed local arrays, the plethora of ~Mw 4 earthquakes occurring in Oklahoma and Southern Kansas can be used to investigate the earthquake rupture process and the role of damage zones.

  10. Anomalous Schumann resonance observed in China, possibly associated with Honshu, Japan Earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ouyang, X. Y.; Zhang, X. M.; Shen, X. H.; Miao, Y. Q.

    2012-04-01

    Schumann resonance (hereafter SR) occurs in the cavity between the Earth and the ionosphere, and it is originated by the global lightning activities [1]. Some recent publications showed that anomalous SR phenomena may occur before major earthquakes [2-4]. Considering good prospects for the application of SR in Earthquake monitoring, we have established four observatories in Yunnan province, a region with frequent seismicity in the southwest of China. Our instruments can provide three components of magnetic field in 0-30 Hz, including BNS(North-South component), BEW(East-West component) and BV (Vertical component). The sample frequency is 100 Hz. In this research, we use high quality data recorded at Yongsheng observatory (geographic coordinates: 26.7° N, 100.77°E) to analyze SR phenomena to find out anomalous effects possibly related with the Ms9.0 Earthquake (epicenter: 38.297° N, 142.372° E) near the east coast of Honshu, Japan on 11 March 2011. We select the data 15 days before and after the earthquake. SR in BNS and SR in BEWappear different in background characteristics. Frequencies of four SR modes in BNSare generally higher than that in BEW. Amplitude of SR in BNSis strong at around 05:00 LT, 15:00 LT and 23:00 LT of the day, while amplitude of SR in BEW is just intense around 16:00 LT, corresponding to about 08:00 UT. Because American, African and Asian thunderstorm centers play their dominant roles respectively in the intervals of 21:00UT±1h, 15:00UT±1h and 08:00UT±1h [1, 3], we can see that SR in BEWis most sensitive to signals from Asian center and SR in BNS is in good response to three centers. SR in BNS and SR in BEW have presented different features in the aspect of anomalous effects related with earthquakes. BEW component gives us a clear picture of anomalous SR phenomena, which are characterized by increase in amplitude of four SR modes and increase in frequency at first SR mode several days before the earthquake. The amplitude of four SR

  11. A Century of Induced Earthquakes in Oklahoma

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hough, S. E.; Page, M. T.

    2015-12-01

    Seismicity rates have increased sharply since 2009 in the central and eastern United States, with especially high rates of activity in the state of Oklahoma. A growing body of evidence indicates that many of these events are induced, primarily by injection of wastewater in deep disposal wells. The upsurge in activity has raised the questions, what is the background rate of tectonic earthquakes in Oklahoma? And how much has the rate varied throughout historical and early instrumental times? We first review the historical catalog, including assessment of the completeness level of felt earthquakes, and show that seismicity rates since 2009 surpass previously observed rates throughout the 20th century. Furthermore, several lines of evidence suggest that most of the significant (Mw > 3.5) earthquakes in Oklahoma during the 20th century were likely induced by wastewater injection and/or enhanced oil recovery operations. We show that there is a statistically significant temporal and spatial correspondence between earthquakes and disposal wells permitted during the 1950s. The intensity distributions of the 1952 Mw5.7 El Reno earthquake and the 1956 Mw3.9 Tulsa county earthquake are similar to those from recent induced earthquakes, with significantly lower shaking than predicted given a regional intensity-prediction equation. The rate of tectonic earthquakes is thus inferred to be significantly lower than previously estimated throughout most of the state, but is difficult to estimate given scant incontrovertible evidence for significant tectonic earthquakes during the 20th century. We do find evidence for a low level of tectonic seismicity in southeastern Oklahoma associated with the Ouachita structural belt, and conclude that the 22 October 1882 Choctaw Nation earthquake, for which we estimate Mw4.8, occurred in this zone.

  12. Earthquakes: hydrogeochemical precursors

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ingebritsen, Steven E.; Manga, Michael

    2014-01-01

    Earthquake prediction is a long-sought goal. Changes in groundwater chemistry before earthquakes in Iceland highlight a potential hydrogeochemical precursor, but such signals must be evaluated in the context of long-term, multiparametric data sets.

  13. Earthquakes for Kids

    MedlinePlus

    ... lab. Earthquake Animations A trench dug across a fault to learn about past earthquakes. Science Fair Projects ... History A scientist stands in front of a fault scarp in southern California. Damage to badly-constructed ...

  14. Speeding earthquake disaster relief

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Mortensen, Carl; Donlin, Carolyn; Page, Robert A.; Ward, Peter

    1995-01-01

    In coping with recent multibillion-dollar earthquake disasters, scientists and emergency managers have found new ways to speed and improve relief efforts. This progress is founded on the rapid availability of earthquake information from seismograph networks.

  15. Earthquakes: Predicting the unpredictable?

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hough, S.E.

    2005-01-01

    The earthquake prediction pendulum has swung from optimism in the 1970s to rather extreme pessimism in the 1990s. Earlier work revealed evidence of possible earthquake precursors: physical changes in the planet that signal that a large earthquake is on the way. Some respected earthquake scientists argued that earthquakes are likewise fundamentally unpredictable. The fate of the Parkfield prediction experiment appeared to support their arguments: A moderate earthquake had been predicted along a specified segment of the central San Andreas fault within five years of 1988, but had failed to materialize on schedule. At some point, however, the pendulum began to swing back. Reputable scientists began using the "P-word" in not only polite company, but also at meetings and even in print. If the optimism regarding earthquake prediction can be attributed to any single cause, it might be scientists' burgeoning understanding of the earthquake cycle.

  16. Estimating earthquake potential

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Page, R.A.

    1980-01-01

    The hazards to life and property from earthquakes can be minimized in three ways. First, structures can be designed and built to resist the effects of earthquakes. Second, the location of structures and human activities can be chosen to avoid or to limit the use of areas known to be subject to serious earthquake hazards. Third, preparations for an earthquake in response to a prediction or warning can reduce the loss of life and damage to property as well as promote a rapid recovery from the disaster. The success of the first two strategies, earthquake engineering and land use planning, depends on being able to reliably estimate the earthquake potential. The key considerations in defining the potential of a region are the location, size, and character of future earthquakes and frequency of their occurrence. Both historic seismicity of the region and the geologic record are considered in evaluating earthquake potential. 

  17. New earthquake catalog reexamines Hawaii's seismic history

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wright, Thomas L.; Klein, Fred W.

    2000-01-01

    On April 2,1868, an earthquake of magnitude 7.9 occurred beneath the southern part of the island of Hawaii. The quake, which was felt throughout all of the Hawaiian Islands, had a Modified Mercalli (MM) intensity of XII near its source.The destruction caused by a quake that large is nearly complete. A landslide triggered by the quake buried a small village, killing 31 people, and a tsunami that swept over coastal settlements added to the death toll. We know as much as we do about this and other early earthquakes thanks to detailed records kept by Hawaiian missionaries, including the remarkable diary maintained by the Lyman family that documented every earthquake felt at their home in Hilo between 1833 and 1917 [Wyss et al., 1992].Our analysis of these and other historical records indicates that Hawaii was at least as intensely seismic in the 19th century and first half of the 20th century as in its more recent past, with 26 M ≥6.0 earthquakes occurring from 1823 to 1903 and 20 M ≥6.0 earthquakes from 1904 to 1959. Just five M ≥6.0 earthquakes occurred from 1960 to 1999. The potential damage caused by a repeat of some of the larger historic events could be catastrophic today.

  18. The 2016 Kumamoto earthquake sequence

    PubMed Central

    KATO, Aitaro; NAKAMURA, Kouji; HIYAMA, Yohei

    2016-01-01

    Beginning in April 2016, a series of shallow, moderate to large earthquakes with associated strong aftershocks struck the Kumamoto area of Kyushu, SW Japan. An Mj 7.3 mainshock occurred on 16 April 2016, close to the epicenter of an Mj 6.5 foreshock that occurred about 28 hours earlier. The intense seismicity released the accumulated elastic energy by right-lateral strike slip, mainly along two known, active faults. The mainshock rupture propagated along multiple fault segments with different geometries. The faulting style is reasonably consistent with regional deformation observed on geologic timescales and with the stress field estimated from seismic observations. One striking feature of this sequence is intense seismic activity, including a dynamically triggered earthquake in the Oita region. Following the mainshock rupture, postseismic deformation has been observed, as well as expansion of the seismicity front toward the southwest and northwest. PMID:27725474

  19. Earthquake location in island arcs

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Engdahl, E.R.; Dewey, J.W.; Fujita, K.

    1982-01-01

    A comprehensive data set of selected teleseismic P-wave arrivals and local-network P- and S-wave arrivals from large earthquakes occurring at all depths within a small section of the central Aleutians is used to examine the general problem of earthquake location in island arcs. Reference hypocenters for this special data set are determined for shallow earthquakes from local-network data and for deep earthquakes from combined local and teleseismic data by joint inversion for structure and location. The high-velocity lithospheric slab beneath the central Aleutians may displace hypocenters that are located using spherically symmetric Earth models; the amount of displacement depends on the position of the earthquakes with respect to the slab and on whether local or teleseismic data are used to locate the earthquakes. Hypocenters for trench and intermediate-depth events appear to be minimally biased by the effects of slab structure on rays to teleseismic stations. However, locations of intermediate-depth events based on only local data are systematically displaced southwards, the magnitude of the displacement being proportional to depth. Shallow-focus events along the main thrust zone, although well located using only local-network data, are severely shifted northwards and deeper, with displacements as large as 50 km, by slab effects on teleseismic travel times. Hypocenters determined by a method that utilizes seismic ray tracing through a three-dimensional velocity model of the subduction zone, derived by thermal modeling, are compared to results obtained by the method of joint hypocenter determination (JHD) that formally assumes a laterally homogeneous velocity model over the source region and treats all raypath anomalies as constant station corrections to the travel-time curve. The ray-tracing method has the theoretical advantage that it accounts for variations in travel-time anomalies within a group of events distributed over a sizable region of a dipping, high

  20. Redefining Earthquakes and the Earthquake Machine

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hubenthal, Michael; Braile, Larry; Taber, John

    2008-01-01

    The Earthquake Machine (EML), a mechanical model of stick-slip fault systems, can increase student engagement and facilitate opportunities to participate in the scientific process. This article introduces the EML model and an activity that challenges ninth-grade students' misconceptions about earthquakes. The activity emphasizes the role of models…

  1. Children's Ideas about Earthquakes

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Simsek, Canan Lacin

    2007-01-01

    Earthquake, a natural disaster, is among the fundamental problems of many countries. If people know how to protect themselves from earthquake and arrange their life styles in compliance with this, damage they will suffer will reduce to that extent. In particular, a good training regarding earthquake to be received in primary schools is considered…

  2. Can We Predict Earthquakes?

    SciTech Connect

    Johnson, Paul

    2016-08-31

    The only thing we know for sure about earthquakes is that one will happen again very soon. Earthquakes pose a vital yet puzzling set of research questions that have confounded scientists for decades, but new ways of looking at seismic information and innovative laboratory experiments are offering tantalizing clues to what triggers earthquakes — and when.

  3. Earthquake and Schools. [Videotape].

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Federal Emergency Management Agency, Washington, DC.

    Designing schools to make them more earthquake resistant and protect children from the catastrophic collapse of the school building is discussed in this videotape. It reveals that 44 of the 50 U.S. states are vulnerable to earthquake, but most schools are structurally unprepared to take on the stresses that earthquakes exert. The cost to the…

  4. School Safety and Earthquakes.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dwelley, Laura; Tucker, Brian; Fernandez, Jeanette

    1997-01-01

    A recent assessment of earthquake risk to Quito, Ecuador, concluded that many of its public schools are vulnerable to collapse during major earthquakes. A subsequent examination of 60 buildings identified 15 high-risk buildings. These schools were retrofitted to meet standards that would prevent injury even during Quito's largest earthquakes. US…

  5. Real Earthquakes, Real Learning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Schomburg, Aaron

    2003-01-01

    One teacher took her class on a year long earthquake expedition. The goal was to monitor the occurrences of real earthquakes during the year and mark their locations with push pins on a wall-sized world map in the hallway outside the science room. The purpose of the project was to create a detailed picture of the earthquakes that occurred…

  6. Can We Predict Earthquakes?

    ScienceCinema

    Johnson, Paul

    2016-09-09

    The only thing we know for sure about earthquakes is that one will happen again very soon. Earthquakes pose a vital yet puzzling set of research questions that have confounded scientists for decades, but new ways of looking at seismic information and innovative laboratory experiments are offering tantalizing clues to what triggers earthquakes — and when.

  7. Seismic databases and earthquake catalogue of the Caucasus

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Godoladze, Tea; Javakhishvili, Zurab; Tvaradze, Nino; Tumanova, Nino; Jorjiashvili, Nato; Gok, Rengen

    2016-04-01

    The Caucasus has a documented historical catalog stretching back to the beginning of the Christian era. Most of the largest historical earthquakes prior to the 19th century are assumed to have occurred on active faults of the Greater Caucasus. Important earthquakes include the Samtskhe earthquake of 1283, Ms~7.0, Io=9; Lechkhumi-Svaneti earthquake of 1350, Ms~7.0, Io=9; and the Alaverdi(earthquake of 1742, Ms~6.8, Io=9. Two significant historical earthquakes that may have occurred within the Javakheti plateau in the Lesser Caucasus are the Tmogvi earthquake of 1088, Ms~6.5, Io=9 and the Akhalkalaki earthquake of 1899, Ms~6.3, Io =8-9. Large earthquakes that occurred in the Caucasus within the period of instrumental observation are: Gori 1920; Tabatskuri 1940; Chkhalta 1963; 1991 Ms=7.0 Racha earthquake, the largest event ever recorded in the region; the 1992 M=6.5 Barisakho earthquake; Ms=6.9 Spitak, Armenia earthquake (100 km south of Tbilisi), which killed over 50,000 people in Armenia. Recently, permanent broadband stations have been deployed across the region as part of various national networks (Georgia (~25 stations), Azerbaijan (~35 stations), Armenia (~14 stations)). The data from the last 10 years of observation provides an opportunity to perform modern, fundamental scientific investigations. A catalog of all instrumentally recorded earthquakes has been compiled by the IES (Institute of Earth Sciences, Ilia State University). The catalog consists of more then 80,000 events. Together with our colleagues from Armenia, Azerbaijan and Turkey the database for the Caucasus seismic events was compiled. We tried to improve locations of the events and calculate Moment magnitudes for the events more than magnitude 4 estimate in order to obtain unified magnitude catalogue of the region. The results will serve as the input for the Seismic hazard assessment for the region.

  8. Impact of earthquakes on risk for pulmonary embolism.

    PubMed

    Watanabe, Hiroshi; Kodama, Makoto; Tanabe, Naohito; Nakamura, Yuichi; Nagai, Tsuneo; Sato, Masahito; Okabe, Masaaki; Aizawa, Yoshifusa

    2008-09-16

    Physical and psychological stress induced by catastrophic events such as earthquakes can lead to sudden death, acute coronary syndrome, stroke, and other cardiovascular diseases. We investigated the impact of the earthquake that occurred in Niigata, Japan, on pulmonary embolism. Pulmonary embolism increased to 9 cases in the 4 weeks after the earthquake, compared to 1 case in the 4 weeks before the earthquake, 2 cases in the corresponding 8 weeks in 2003, and 1 case in 2002. The first case occurred two days after the initial earthquake and new cases were reported for 27 days thereafter. Six of 9 patients (67%) took refuge in their automobiles before the onset of pulmonary embolism. Sudden death also increased after the earthquake and 7 of 22 cases (32%) spend night(s) in automobile. In conclusion, pulmonary embolism should be attended after disasters and prolonged immobilization in automobiles may increase risk of pulmonary embolism and sudden death.

  9. Loma Prieta earthquake, October 17, 1989, Santa Cruz County, California

    SciTech Connect

    McNutt, S.

    1990-01-01

    On Tuesday, October 17, 1989 at 5:04 p.m. Pacific Daylight Time, a magnitude 7.1 earthquake occurred on the San Andreas fault 10 miles northeast of Santa Cruz. This earthquake was the largest earthquake to occur in the San Francisco Bay area since 1906, and the largest anywhere in California since 1952. The earthquake was responsible for 67 deaths and about 7 billion dollars worth of damage, making it the biggest dollar loss natural disaster in United States history. This article describes the seismological features of the earthquake, and briefly outlines a number of other geologic observations made during study of the earthquake, its aftershocks, and its effects. Much of the information in this article was provided by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS).

  10. Operational earthquake forecasting can enhance earthquake preparedness

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Jordan, T.H.; Marzocchi, W.; Michael, A.J.; Gerstenberger, M.C.

    2014-01-01

    We cannot yet predict large earthquakes in the short term with much reliability and skill, but the strong clustering exhibited in seismic sequences tells us that earthquake probabilities are not constant in time; they generally rise and fall over periods of days to years in correlation with nearby seismic activity. Operational earthquake forecasting (OEF) is the dissemination of authoritative information about these time‐dependent probabilities to help communities prepare for potentially destructive earthquakes. The goal of OEF is to inform the decisions that people and organizations must continually make to mitigate seismic risk and prepare for potentially destructive earthquakes on time scales from days to decades. To fulfill this role, OEF must provide a complete description of the seismic hazard—ground‐motion exceedance probabilities as well as short‐term rupture probabilities—in concert with the long‐term forecasts of probabilistic seismic‐hazard analysis (PSHA).

  11. A cross section of the Los Angeles Area: Seismically active fold and thrust belt, The 1987 Whittier Narrows earthquake, and earthquake hazard

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Davis, Thomas L.; Namson, Jay; Yerkes, Robert F.

    1989-07-01

    presence of two intersecting compressional belts in the Los Angeles area: the Transverse Ranges and the northern Peninsular Ranges. The belts may be due to one or more regional detachments and the northern Peninsular Ranges may be northeast or southwest vergent. The deformed top of the crystalline basement along the regional cross section requires a minimum of 15.0 km of north-south convergence between the Palos Verdes Hills and the San Andreas fault regardless of the structural solution. Restoration of our cross section solution requires 21.4 km of north-south convergence on top of the crystalline basement (including 6.4 km of slip continuing offshore to make structures of the continental borderland) and 29.7 km of convergence on the basal detachment. Geologic relationships suggest major shortening started between early and late Pliocene time (2.2-4.0 Ma) which yields a minimum convergence rate of 3.8-6.8 mm/yr between the Palos Verdes Hills and the San Andreas fault. Convergence rates for our solution range from 5.4 to 13.5 mm/yr between the edge of the continental borderland and the San Andreas fault. Slip rate estimates for the Elysian Park thrust along the eastern portion of the Santa Monica Mountains anticlinorium are 2.5-5.2 mm/yr. If the 1987 Whittier Narrows earthquake is the characteristic earthquake along the 170-km-long anticlinorium, then recurrence intervals are estimated to be 5.6-12.1 years. This recurrence is higher than the historic seismic record along the Santa Monica Mountains anticlinorium and suggests that (1) our slip rates are too high, (2) some crustal shortening is taken up aseismically, and/or (3) earthquakes larger than the 1987 Whittier Narrows earthquake will occur along the anticlinorium, but less frequently.

  12. The effects of earthquake measurement concepts and magnitude anchoring on individuals' perceptions of earthquake risk

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Celsi, R.; Wolfinbarger, M.; Wald, D.

    2005-01-01

    The purpose of this research is to explore earthquake risk perceptions in California. Specifically, we examine the risk beliefs, feelings, and experiences of lay, professional, and expert individuals to explore how risk is perceived and how risk perceptions are formed relative to earthquakes. Our results indicate that individuals tend to perceptually underestimate the degree that earthquake (EQ) events may affect them. This occurs in large part because individuals' personal felt experience of EQ events are generally overestimated relative to experienced magnitudes. An important finding is that individuals engage in a process of "cognitive anchoring" of their felt EQ experience towards the reported earthquake magnitude size. The anchoring effect is moderated by the degree that individuals comprehend EQ magnitude measurement and EQ attenuation. Overall, the results of this research provide us with a deeper understanding of EQ risk perceptions, especially as they relate to individuals' understanding of EQ measurement and attenuation concepts. ?? 2005, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute.

  13. The surface latent heat flux anomalies related to major earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jing, Feng; Shen, Xuhui; Kang, Chunli; Xiong, Pan; Hong, Shunying

    2011-12-01

    SLHF (Surface Latent Heat Flux) is an atmospheric parameter, which can describe the heat released by phase changes and dependent on meteorological parameters such as surface temperature, relative humidity, wind speed etc. There is a sharp difference between the ocean surface and the land surface. Recently, many studies related to the SLHF anomalies prior to earthquakes have been developed. It has been shown that the energy exchange enhanced between coastal surface and atmosphere prior to earthquakes can increase the rate of the water-heat exchange, which will lead to an obviously increases in SLHF. In this paper, two earthquakes in 2010 (Haiti earthquake and southwest of Sumatra in Indonesia earthquake) have been analyzed using SLHF data by STD (standard deviation) threshold method. It is shows that the SLHF anomaly may occur in interpolate earthquakes or intraplate earthquakes and coastal earthquakes or island earthquakes. And the SLHF anomalies usually appear 5-6 days prior to an earthquake, then disappear quickly after the event. The process of anomaly evolution to a certain extent reflects a dynamic energy change process about earthquake preparation, that is, weak-strong-weak-disappeared.

  14. Investigation of atmospheric anomalies associated with Kashmir and Awaran Earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mahmood, Irfan; Iqbal, Muhammad Farooq; Shahzad, Muhammad Imran; Qaiser, Saddam

    2017-02-01

    The earthquake precursors' anomalies at diverse elevation ranges over the seismogenic region and prior to the seismic events are perceived using Satellite Remote Sensing (SRS) techniques and reanalysis datasets. In the current research, seismic precursors are obtained by analyzing anomalies in Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR), Air Temperature (AT), and Relative Humidity (RH) before the two strong Mw>7 earthquakes in Pakistan occurred on 8th October 2005 in Azad Jammu Kashmir with Mw 7.6, and 24th September 2013 in Awaran, Balochistan with Mw 7.7. Multi-parameter data were computed based on multi-year background data for anomalies computation. Results indicate significant transient variations in observed parameters before the main event. Detailed analysis suggests presence of pre-seismic activities one to three weeks prior to the main earthquake event that vanishes after the event. These anomalies are due to increase in temperature after release of gases and physical and chemical interactions on earth surface before the earthquake. The parameter variations behavior for both Kashmir and Awaran earthquake events are similar to other earthquakes in different regions of the world. This study suggests that energy release is not concentrated to a single fault but instead is released along the fault zone. The influence of earthquake events on lightning were also investigated and it was concluded that there is a significant atmospheric lightning activity after the earthquake suggesting a strong possibility for an earthquake induced thunderstorm. This study is valuable for identifying earthquake precursors especially in earthquake prone areas.

  15. Storage tanks under earthquake loading

    SciTech Connect

    Rammerstorfer, F.G.; Scharf, K. ); Fisher, F.D. )

    1990-11-01

    This is a state-of-the-art review of various treatments of earthquake loaded liquid filled shells by the methods of earthquake engineering, fluid dynamics, structural and soil dynamics, as well as the theory of stability and computational mechanics. Different types of tanks and different possibilities of tank failure will be discussed. The authors will emphasize cylindrical above-ground liquid storage tanks with vertical axis. But many of the treatments are also valid for other tank configurations. For the calculation of the dynamically activated pressure due to an earthquake a fluid-structure-soil interaction problem must be solved. The review will describe the methods, proposed by different authors, to solve this interaction problem. To study the dynamic behavior of liquid storage tanks, one must distinguish between anchored and unanchored tanks. In the case of an anchored tank, the tank bottom edge is fixed to the foundation. If the tank is unanchored, partial lifting of the tank's bottom may occur, and a strongly nonlinear problem has to be solved. They will compare the various analytical and numerical models applicable to this problem, in combination with experimental data. An essential aim of this review is to give a summary of methods applicable as tools for an earthquake resistant design, which can be used by an engineer engaged in the construction of liquid storage tanks.

  16. Intensity earthquake scenario (scenario event - a damaging earthquake with higher probability of occurrence) for the city of Sofia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aleksandrova, Irena; Simeonova, Stela; Solakov, Dimcho; Popova, Maria

    2014-05-01

    Among the many kinds of natural and man-made disasters, earthquakes dominate with regard to their social and economical impact on the urban environment. Global seismic risk to earthquakes are increasing steadily as urbanization and development occupy more areas that a prone to effects of strong earthquakes. Additionally, the uncontrolled growth of mega cities in highly seismic areas around the world is often associated with the construction of seismically unsafe buildings and infrastructures, and undertaken with an insufficient knowledge of the regional seismicity peculiarities and seismic hazard. The assessment of seismic hazard and generation of earthquake scenarios is the first link in the prevention chain and the first step in the evaluation of the seismic risk. The earthquake scenarios are intended as a basic input for developing detailed earthquake damage scenarios for the cities and can be used in earthquake-safe town and infrastructure planning. The city of Sofia is the capital of Bulgaria. It is situated in the centre of the Sofia area that is the most populated (the population is of more than 1.2 mil. inhabitants), industrial and cultural region of Bulgaria that faces considerable earthquake risk. The available historical documents prove the occurrence of destructive earthquakes during the 15th-18th centuries in the Sofia zone. In 19th century the city of Sofia has experienced two strong earthquakes: the 1818 earthquake with epicentral intensity I0=8-9 MSK and the 1858 earthquake with I0=9-10 MSK. During the 20th century the strongest event occurred in the vicinity of the city of Sofia is the 1917 earthquake with MS=5.3 (I0=7-8 MSK). Almost a century later (95 years) an earthquake of moment magnitude 5.6 (I0=7-8 MSK) hit the city of Sofia, on May 22nd, 2012. In the present study as a deterministic scenario event is considered a damaging earthquake with higher probability of occurrence that could affect the city with intensity less than or equal to VIII

  17. Earthquake Observation through Groundwater Monitoring in South Korea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Piao, J.; Woo, N. C.

    2014-12-01

    According to previous researches, the influence of the some earthquakes can be detected by groundwater monitoring. Even in some countries groundwater monitoring is being used as an important tool to identify earthquake precursors and prediction measures. Thus, in this study we attempt to catch the anomalous changes in groundwater produced by earthquakes occurred in Korea through the National Groundwater Monitoring Network (NGMN). For observing the earthquake impacts on groundwater more effectively, from the National Groundwater Monitoring Network we selected 28 stations located in the five earthquake-prone zones in South Korea. And we searched the responses to eight earthquakes with M ≥2.5 which occurred in the vicinity of five earthquake-prone zones in 2012. So far, we tested the groundwater monitoring data (water-level, temperature and electrical conductivity). Those data have only been treated to remove barometric pressure changes. Then we found 29 anomalous changes, confirming that groundwater monitoring data can provide valuable information on earthquake effects. To identify the effect of the earthquake from mixture signals of water-level, other signals must be separated from the original data. Periodic signals will be separated from the original data using Fast Fourier Transform (FFT). After that we will attempt to separate precipitation effect, and determine if the anomalies were generated by earthquake or not.

  18. High Attenuation Rate for Shallow, Small Earthquakes in Japan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Si, Hongjun; Koketsu, Kazuki; Miyake, Hiroe

    2017-03-01

    We compared the attenuation characteristics of peak ground accelerations (PGAs) and velocities (PGVs) of strong motion from shallow, small earthquakes that occurred in Japan with those predicted by the equations of Si and Midorikawa (J Struct Constr Eng 523:63-70, 1999). The observed PGAs and PGVs at stations far from the seismic source decayed more rapidly than the predicted ones. The same tendencies have been reported for deep, moderate, and large earthquakes, but not for shallow, moderate, and large earthquakes. This indicates that the peak values of ground motion from shallow, small earthquakes attenuate more steeply than those from shallow, moderate or large earthquakes. To investigate the reason for this difference, we numerically simulated strong ground motion for point sources of M w 4 and 6 earthquakes using a 2D finite difference method. The analyses of the synthetic waveforms suggested that the above differences are caused by surface waves, which are predominant at stations far from the seismic source for shallow, moderate earthquakes but not for shallow, small earthquakes. Thus, although loss due to reflection at the boundaries of the discontinuous Earth structure occurs in all shallow earthquakes, the apparent attenuation rate for a moderate or large earthquake is essentially the same as that of body waves propagating in a homogeneous medium due to the dominance of surface waves.

  19. Distribution characteristics of earthquake-induced landslide with the earthquake source fault-the cases of recent strong earthquakes in eastern Japan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hasi, B.; Ishii, Y.; Maruyama, K.; Terada, H.

    2009-12-01

    In recent years, 3 strong earthquakes, the Mid-Niigata earthquake (M6.8, October 23, 2004), the Noto Peninsula earthquake (M6.9, March 25, 2007), the Chuetsu-offshore earthquake (M6.8, July 16, 2007), stroke eastern Japan. All of these earthquakes occurred inland by reverse fault, with depth 11-17km hypocenter, triggered a large number of landslides and caused serious damage to the involved regions due to these landslides. To clarify the distribution characteristics of landslides induced by these earthquakes, we interpreted landslides by using aerial photographs taken immediately after the earthquakes, and analyzed landslide distributions with the peak ground acceleration (PGA) and seismic intensity (in Japan Meteorological Agency intensity scale), source fault of the mainshock of each earthquake. The analyzing results revealed that: 1) Most of the landslides occurred in the area where the PGA is larger than 500 gal, and the maximum seismic intensity is larger than 5 plus ; 2) The landslides occurred in a short distance from the source fault (the shortest distance from the surface projection of top tip of the fault), about 80% occurred within the distance of 20 km; 3) More than 80% of landslides occurred on the hanging wall, and the size of landslide (length, width, area) is larger than that occurred on the footwall of the source fault; 4) The number and size of landslide tends to deceases with the distance from the source fault. Our results suggesting that the distance from the source fault of earthquake could be a parameter to analyze the landslide occurrence induce by strong earthquake.

  20. Seismicity prior to the 2016 Kumamoto earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nanjo, Kazuyoshi Z.; Izutsu, Jun; Orihara, Yoshiaki; Furuse, Nobuhiro; Togo, Shoho; Nitta, Hidetoshi; Okada, Tomohiro; Tanaka, Rika; Kamogawa, Masashi; Nagao, Toshiyasu

    2016-11-01

    We report precursory seismic patterns prior to the 2016 Kumamoto earthquakes, as measured by four different methods based on changes in seismicity that can be used for earthquake forecasting: the b-value method, two methods of seismic quiescence evaluation, and an analysis of seismicity density in space and time. The spatial extent of precursory patterns differs from one method to the other and ranges from local scales (typically, asperity size) to regional scales (e.g., 2° × 3° around the source zone). The earthquakes were preceded by periods of pronounced anomalies, which lasted in yearly scales (1.5 years), or longer (>3 years). We demonstrate that a combination of multiple methods detected different signals prior to the Kumamoto earthquakes. This indicates great potential to reduce the hazard at possible future sites of earthquakes relative to long-term seismic hazard assessment. We also found that the seismic quiescence in a regional-scale area, detected by using the two methods of seismic quiescence evaluation, was a common precursor to the 2016 Kumamoto earthquakes and 2015 Off Satsuma Peninsula earthquake. The result allows us to interpret both events as the onset that occurred at a section along the tectonic line from the Okinawa Trough through the Beppu-Shimabara graben.[Figure not available: see fulltext.

  1. Scaling of seismic memory with earthquake size

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zheng, Zeyu; Yamasaki, Kazuko; Tenenbaum, Joel; Podobnik, Boris; Tamura, Yoshiyasu; Stanley, H. Eugene

    2012-07-01

    It has been observed that discrete earthquake events possess memory, i.e., that events occurring in a particular location are dependent on the history of that location. We conduct an analysis to see whether continuous real-time data also display a similar memory and, if so, whether such autocorrelations depend on the size of earthquakes within close spatiotemporal proximity. We analyze the seismic wave form database recorded by 64 stations in Japan, including the 2011 “Great East Japan Earthquake,” one of the five most powerful earthquakes ever recorded, which resulted in a tsunami and devastating nuclear accidents. We explore the question of seismic memory through use of mean conditional intervals and detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA). We find that the wave form sign series show power-law anticorrelations while the interval series show power-law correlations. We find size dependence in earthquake autocorrelations: as the earthquake size increases, both of these correlation behaviors strengthen. We also find that the DFA scaling exponent α has no dependence on the earthquake hypocenter depth or epicentral distance.

  2. "Naturally occurring asbestos

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cagnard, F.; Lahondère, D.; Blein, O.; Lahfid, A.; Wille, G.

    2012-04-01

    The term asbestos refers to six silicate minerals from amphibole and serpentine groups. By definition, it consists in bundles of thin and flexible long fibers, with high-tensile strength, and chemical and heat resistance. In contrast to asbestos found within commercial products and mining, the specific term ''naturally occurring asbestos'' (NOA) refers to asbestiform minerals occurring within rocks or soils that can be released by human activities or weathering processes. The fact that the exposure to asbestos is related to lung pathologies is now widely demonstrated (e.g. asbestosis, mesothelioma and lung cancer). However, if health risks associated with exposure to NOA exist, they are not yet well documented. The crystallization of natural asbestos occurs in specific Mg-rich lithologies associated with peculiar structural and metamorphic conditions. By recognizing and combining such specific geologic criteria, the presence or the absence of asbestos in bedrock terrains can be reasonably predicted and maps of NOA hazard can be drawn. We present here new results of geological mapping and petrological study concerning the evaluation of the NOA hazard in the Alps and Corsica, in France. The three folds approach consists in (1) a determination of lithologies with potential NOA from a bibliographic compilation and extraction of target zones from a geological geodatabase (2) a geological mapping of the target zones followed by a petrological characterization of sampled asbestiform minerals in the laboratory (optical microscopy, TEM, SEM, and Raman spectroscopy technics), and (3) the drawing of the final map of NOA hazard, at regional-scale. Occurrence criteria can be retained as follows: 1. NOA are abundant in the internal zones of the Alps and Corsica, especially within ophiolitic complexes. Natural asbestos are mostly concentrated within ultramafic rocks but can also occur within basic lithologies such as Mg-metagabbros, metabasalts and meta-pillow-lavas, 2. Asbestos

  3. Sichuan Earthquake in China

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2008-01-01

    The Sichuan earthquake in China occurred on May 12, 2008, along faults within the mountains, but near and almost parallel the mountain front, northwest of the city of Chengdu. This major quake caused immediate and severe damage to many villages and cities in the area. Aftershocks pose a continuing danger, but another continuing hazard is the widespread occurrence of landslides that have formed new natural dams and consequently new lakes. These lakes are submerging roads and flooding previously developed lands. But an even greater concern is the possible rapid release of water as the lakes eventually overflow the new dams. The dams are generally composed of disintegrated rock debris that may easily erode, leading to greater release of water, which may then cause faster erosion and an even greater release of water. This possible 'positive feedback' between increasing erosion and increasing water release could result in catastrophic debris flows and/or flooding. The danger is well known to the Chinese earthquake response teams, which have been building spillways over some of the new natural dams.

    This ASTER image, acquired on June 1, 2008, shows two of the new large landslide dams and lakes upstream from the town of Chi-Kua-Kan at 32o12'N latitude and 104o50'E longitude. Vegetation is green, water is blue, and soil is grayish brown in this enhanced color view. New landslides appear bright off-white. The northern (top) lake is upstream from the southern lake. Close inspection shows a series of much smaller lakes in an elongated 'S' pattern along the original stream path. Note especially the large landslides that created the dams. Some other landslides in this area, such as the large one in the northeast corner of the image, occur only on the mountain slopes, so do not block streams, and do not form lakes.

  4. One research from turkey on groundwater- level changes related earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kirmizitas, H.; Göktepe, G.

    2003-04-01

    Groundwater levels are recorded by limnigraphs in drilling wells in order to determine groundwater potential accurately and reliable under hydrogeological studies in Turkey State Haydraulic Works (DSI) set the limnigraphs to estimate mainly groundwater potential. Any well is drilled to determine and to obtain data on water level changes related earthquake up today. The main purpose of these studies are based on groundwater potential and to expose the hydrodynamic structure of an aquifer. In this study, abnormal oscillations, water rising and water drops were observed on graphs which is related with water level changes in groundwater. These observations showed that, some earthquakes has been effective on water level changes. There is a distance ranging to 2000 km between this epicentral and water wells. Water level changes occur in groundwater bearing layers that could be consisting of grained materials such as, alluvium or consolidated rocks such as, limestones. The biggest water level change is ranging to 1,48 m on diagrams and it is recorded as oscillation movement. Water level changes related earthquake are observed in different types of movements below in this research. 1-Rise-drop oscillation changes on same point. 2-Water level drop in certain periods or permanent periods after earthquakes. 3-Water level rise in certain periods or permanent periods after earthquakes. (For example, during Gölcük Earthquake with magnitude of 7.8 on August, 17, 1999 one artesian occured in DSI well ( 49160 numbered ) in Adapazari, Dernekkiri Village. Groundwater level changes might easily be changed because of atmosferic pressure that comes in first range, precipitation, irrigation or water pumping. Owing to relate groundwater level changes with earthquake on any time, such changes should be observed accurately, carefully and at right time. Thus, first of all, the real reason of this water level changes must be determined From 1970 to 2001 many earthquakes occured in Turkey

  5. Earthquake catalog for estimation of maximum earthquake magnitude, Central and Eastern United States: Part A, Prehistoric earthquakes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wheeler, Russell L.

    2014-01-01

    Computation of probabilistic earthquake hazard requires an estimate of Mmax, the maximum earthquake magnitude thought to be possible within a specified geographic region. This report is Part A of an Open-File Report that describes the construction of a global catalog of moderate to large earthquakes, from which one can estimate Mmax for most of the Central and Eastern United States and adjacent Canada. The catalog and Mmax estimates derived from it were used in the 2014 edition of the U.S. Geological Survey national seismic-hazard maps. This Part A discusses prehistoric earthquakes that occurred in eastern North America, northwestern Europe, and Australia, whereas a separate Part B deals with historical events.

  6. Crowdsourced earthquake early warning.

    PubMed

    Minson, Sarah E; Brooks, Benjamin A; Glennie, Craig L; Murray, Jessica R; Langbein, John O; Owen, Susan E; Heaton, Thomas H; Iannucci, Robert A; Hauser, Darren L

    2015-04-01

    Earthquake early warning (EEW) can reduce harm to people and infrastructure from earthquakes and tsunamis, but it has not been implemented in most high earthquake-risk regions because of prohibitive cost. Common consumer devices such as smartphones contain low-cost versions of the sensors used in EEW. Although less accurate than scientific-grade instruments, these sensors are globally ubiquitous. Through controlled tests of consumer devices, simulation of an M w (moment magnitude) 7 earthquake on California's Hayward fault, and real data from the M w 9 Tohoku-oki earthquake, we demonstrate that EEW could be achieved via crowdsourcing.

  7. Crowdsourced earthquake early warning

    PubMed Central

    Minson, Sarah E.; Brooks, Benjamin A.; Glennie, Craig L.; Murray, Jessica R.; Langbein, John O.; Owen, Susan E.; Heaton, Thomas H.; Iannucci, Robert A.; Hauser, Darren L.

    2015-01-01

    Earthquake early warning (EEW) can reduce harm to people and infrastructure from earthquakes and tsunamis, but it has not been implemented in most high earthquake-risk regions because of prohibitive cost. Common consumer devices such as smartphones contain low-cost versions of the sensors used in EEW. Although less accurate than scientific-grade instruments, these sensors are globally ubiquitous. Through controlled tests of consumer devices, simulation of an Mw (moment magnitude) 7 earthquake on California’s Hayward fault, and real data from the Mw 9 Tohoku-oki earthquake, we demonstrate that EEW could be achieved via crowdsourcing. PMID:26601167

  8. Chilean Men Exposed to the Major Earthquake in 2010.

    PubMed

    Labra, Oscar; Maltais, Danielle; Tremblay, Gilles

    2017-03-01

    The article presents the results of a study involving 18 men, 4 years after one of South America's most powerful natural disasters: An earthquake occurring off the coast of Chile in February 2010. Participants reported having developed new psychological health problems in the months following the catastrophe. The manifestations most frequently reported by participants were the presence of depressive and stress symptoms, as well as sleep disorders. The majority of participants registered scores of 33 and above on the Impact of Event Scale-Revised, indicating that they were suffering from posttraumatic stress. Furthermore, although the majority of interviewed men reported having suffered psychological or physical health problems following the disaster, only a small minority had sought help from professional health services. The article develops insights into the men's social interactions and underlines the importance of supporting further research on red health topics, in particular the help-seeking behavior of men following exposure to natural disasters.

  9. Earthquake forecasting and warning

    SciTech Connect

    Rikitake, T.

    1983-01-01

    This review briefly describes two other books on the same subject either written or partially written by Rikitake. In this book, the status of earthquake prediction efforts in Japan, China, the Soviet Union, and the United States are updated. An overview of some of the organizational, legal, and societal aspects of earthquake prediction in these countries is presented, and scientific findings of precursory phenomena are included. A summary of circumstances surrounding the 1975 Haicheng earthquake, the 1978 Tangshan earthquake, and the 1976 Songpan-Pingwu earthquake (all magnitudes = 7.0) in China and the 1978 Izu-Oshima earthquake in Japan is presented. This book fails to comprehensively summarize recent advances in earthquake prediction research.

  10. Introduction to the special issue on the 2004 Parkfield earthquake and the Parkfield earthquake prediction experiment

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Harris, R.A.; Arrowsmith, J.R.

    2006-01-01

    The 28 September 2004 M 6.0 Parkfield earthquake, a long-anticipated event on the San Andreas fault, is the world's best recorded earthquake to date, with state-of-the-art data obtained from geologic, geodetic, seismic, magnetic, and electrical field networks. This has allowed the preearthquake and postearthquake states of the San Andreas fault in this region to be analyzed in detail. Analyses of these data provide views into the San Andreas fault that show a complex geologic history, fault geometry, rheology, and response of the nearby region to the earthquake-induced ground movement. Although aspects of San Andreas fault zone behavior in the Parkfield region can be modeled simply over geological time frames, the Parkfield Earthquake Prediction Experiment and the 2004 Parkfield earthquake indicate that predicting the fine details of future earthquakes is still a challenge. Instead of a deterministic approach, forecasting future damaging behavior, such as that caused by strong ground motions, will likely continue to require probabilistic methods. However, the Parkfield Earthquake Prediction Experiment and the 2004 Parkfield earthquake have provided ample data to understand most of what did occur in 2004, culminating in significant scientific advances.

  11. The earthquake prediction experiment at Parkfield, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Roeloffs, E.; Langbein, J.

    1994-01-01

    Since 1985, a focused earthquake prediction experiment has been in progress along the San Andreas fault near the town of Parkfield in central California. Parkfield has experienced six moderate earthquakes since 1857 at average intervals of 22 years, the most recent a magnitude 6 event in 1966. The probability of another moderate earthquake soon appears high, but studies assigning it a 95% chance of occurring before 1993 now appear to have been oversimplified. The identification of a Parkfield fault "segment" was initially based on geometric features in the surface trace of the San Andreas fault, but more recent microearthquake studies have demonstrated that those features do not extend to seismogenic depths. On the other hand, geodetic measurements are consistent with the existence of a "locked" patch on the fault beneath Parkfield that has presently accumulated a slip deficit equal to the slip in the 1966 earthquake. A magnitude 4.7 earthquake in October 1992 brought the Parkfield experiment to its highest level of alert, with a 72-hour public warning that there was a 37% chance of a magnitude 6 event. However, this warning proved to be a false alarm. Most data collected at Parkfield indicate that strain is accumulating at a constant rate on this part of the San Andreas fault, but some interesting departures from this behavior have been recorded. Here we outline the scientific arguments bearing on when the next Parkfield earthquake is likely to occur and summarize geophysical observations to date.

  12. Shallow moonquakes - How they compare with earthquakes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Nakamura, Y.

    1980-01-01

    Of three types of moonquakes strong enough to be detectable at large distances - deep moonquakes, meteoroid impacts and shallow moonquakes - only shallow moonquakes are similar in nature to earthquakes. A comparison of various characteristics of moonquakes with those of earthquakes indeed shows a remarkable similarity between shallow moonquakes and intraplate earthquakes: (1) their occurrences are not controlled by tides; (2) they appear to occur in locations where there is evidence of structural weaknesses; (3) the relative abundances of small and large quakes (b-values) are similar, suggesting similar mechanisms; and (4) even the levels of activity may be close. The shallow moonquakes may be quite comparable in nature to intraplate earthquakes, and they may be of similar origin.

  13. Disturbances in equilibrium function after major earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Honma, Motoyasu; Endo, Nobutaka; Osada, Yoshihisa; Kim, Yoshiharu; Kuriyama, Kenichi

    2012-10-01

    Major earthquakes were followed by a large number of aftershocks and significant outbreaks of dizziness occurred over a large area. However it is unclear why major earthquake causes dizziness. We conducted an intergroup trial on equilibrium dysfunction and psychological states associated with equilibrium dysfunction in individuals exposed to repetitive aftershocks versus those who were rarely exposed. Greater equilibrium dysfunction was observed in the aftershock-exposed group under conditions without visual compensation. Equilibrium dysfunction in the aftershock-exposed group appears to have arisen from disturbance of the inner ear, as well as individual vulnerability to state anxiety enhanced by repetitive exposure to aftershocks. We indicate potential effects of autonomic stress on equilibrium function after major earthquake. Our findings may contribute to risk management of psychological and physical health after major earthquakes with aftershocks, and allow development of a new empirical approach to disaster care after such events.

  14. Earthquake prediction; new studies yield promising results

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Robinson, R.

    1974-01-01

    On Agust 3, 1973, a small earthquake (magnitude 2.5) occurred near Blue Mountain Lake in the Adirondack region of northern New York State. This seemingly unimportant event was of great significance, however, because it was predicted. Seismologsits at the Lamont-Doherty geologcal Observatory of Columbia University accurately foretold the time, place, and magnitude of the event. Their prediction was based on certain pre-earthquake processes that are best explained by a hypothesis known as "dilatancy," a concept that has injected new life and direction into the science of earthquake prediction. Although much mroe reserach must be accomplished before we can expect to predict potentially damaging earthquakes with any degree of consistency, results such as this indicate that we are on a promising road. 

  15. Strong ground motion prediction using virtual earthquakes.

    PubMed

    Denolle, M A; Dunham, E M; Prieto, G A; Beroza, G C

    2014-01-24

    Sedimentary basins increase the damaging effects of earthquakes by trapping and amplifying seismic waves. Simulations of seismic wave propagation in sedimentary basins capture this effect; however, there exists no method to validate these results for earthquakes that have not yet occurred. We present a new approach for ground motion prediction that uses the ambient seismic field. We apply our method to a suite of magnitude 7 scenario earthquakes on the southern San Andreas fault and compare our ground motion predictions with simulations. Both methods find strong amplification and coupling of source and structure effects, but they predict substantially different shaking patterns across the Los Angeles Basin. The virtual earthquake approach provides a new approach for predicting long-period strong ground motion.

  16. Earthquake Light

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1985-08-15

    uranium/radium; actinium ; and thorium. These long-lived precursors are chemically boun e6 in minerals, mainly as oxides, but occur also in ground...Emanation Nuclide lifeT Mode (MeV) Radium Radon Rn 2 22 3 . 8 2 3 d 5.5 1 5 d a 5.587 Thorium Thoron Rn22 0 54.5 s 78.6s a 6.405 Actinium Actinon Rn2

  17. Analysis of recent glacial earthquakes in Greenland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Olsen, K.; Nettles, M.

    2015-12-01

    Large calving events at Greenland's outlet glaciers produce teleseismically detectable glacial earthquakes. These events are observed in the seismic record for the past 22 years, but the complete catalog of glacial earthquakes still numbers only ~300. The annual occurrence of these long-period events has increased over time, which makes recent years especially valuable in expanding the global dataset. Glacial earthquakes from 1993- 2010 have been analyzed systematically (Tsai and Ekström, 2007; Veitch and Nettles, 2012). Here, we analyze more recent events using the same centroid—single-force (CSF) approach as previous authors, focusing initially on data from 2013. In addition, we perform a focused study of selected events from 2009-2010 to assess the reliability of the force azimuths obtained from such inversions. Recent spatial and temporal patterns of glacial earthquakes in Greenland differ from those in previous years. In 2013, three times as many events occurred on the west coast as on the east, and these events originated predominantly from two glaciers: Jakobshavn Glacier on the west coast and Helheim Glacier on the east. Kangerdlugssuaq Glacier, on the east coast, produced no glacial earthquakes in 2013, though it produced many events in earlier years. Previous CSF results for glacial earthquakes show force azimuths perpendicular to the glacier front during a calving event, with force plunges near horizontal. However, some azimuths indicate forces initially oriented upglacier, while others are oriented downglacier (seaward). We perform a set of experiments on events from 2009 and 2010 and find two acceptable solutions for each glacial earthquake, oriented 180° apart with plunges of opposite sign and centroid times differing by approximately one half of the assumed duration of the earthquake time function. These results suggest the need for a more complex time function to model glacial earthquakes more accurately.

  18. Forecasting the Next Great San Francisco Earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rundle, P.; Rundle, J. B.; Turcotte, D. L.; Donnellan, A.; Yakovlev, G.; Tiampo, K. F.

    2005-12-01

    The great San Francisco earthquake of 18 April 1906 and its subsequent fires killed more than 3,000 persons, and destroyed much of the city leaving 225,000 out of 400,000 inhabitants homeless. The 1906 earthquake occurred on a km segment of the San Andreas fault that runs from the San Juan Bautista north to Cape Mendocino and is estimated to have had a moment magnitude m ,l 7.9. Observations of surface displacements across the fault were in the range m. As we approach the 100 year anniversary of this event, a critical concern is the hazard posed by another such earthquake. In this talk we examine the assumptions presently used to compute the probability of occurrence of these earthquakes. We also present the results of a numerical simulation of interacting faults on the San Andreas system. Called Virtual California, this simulation can be used to compute the times, locations and magnitudes of simulated earthquakes on the San Andreas fault in the vicinity of San Francisco. Of particular importance are new results for the statistical distribution of interval times between great earthquakes, results that are difficult or impossible to obtain from a purely field-based approach. We find that our results are fit well under most circumstances by the Weibull statistical distribution, and we compute waiting times to future earthquakes based upon our simulation results. A contrasting approach to the same problem has been adopted by the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities, who use observational data combined with statistical assumptions to compute probabilities of future earthquakes.

  19. Radon earthquake precursor studied in Iceland

    SciTech Connect

    Hauksson, E.; Goddard, J.G.

    1981-08-10

    Discrete samples of geothermal water have been collected from a network of nine stations for analysis of randon (/sup 222/Rn) content. The sampling network consisted of wells that range in wellhead temperature from 48 /sup 0/C to 100 /sup 0/C, and the depths range from 38 m to 1338 m. The sampling frequency at most stations was about once per week and twice per week at the station Fludir. The wells are either artesian or pumped more or less continously. The network covered two regions of transform faulting in Iceland with seven stations in the Southern Iceland Seismic Zone (SISZ) and two stations in northern Iceland in the Tjornes Fracture Zone (TFZ). During 1978 and 1979 several anomalous changes in radon content were observed to precede some of the local earthquakes. Criteria based on tectonic regimes, a magnitude-distance relationship and time clustering were applied to select a set of 23 earthquakes that could be expected to be preceded by a randon anomaly. The magnitude of these earthquakes ranged between 1.0 and 4.3. Each of the 23 earthquakes was within the distance range of one or more stations such that altogether 57 potential observations of possible anomalies were available. The method of analysis applied to the radon and earthquake data consisted of identifying radon anomalies in retrospect, and resulted in nine precursory anomalies, 48 cases of failure to observe an anomaly, and seven false alarms. The probability of observing radon anomalies before earthquakes with magnitudes between 2.0 and 4.3 (the largest event observed) was found to be approximately 65% based on a weekly sampling rate. In the SISZ, five out of eight earthquakes (M>2) were preceded by an anomaly. In two cases, anomalies were observed at two different stations prior to the same earthquake. The anomalies appeared to occur father away for larger earthquake magnitude.

  20. Naturally occurring insecticides.

    PubMed Central

    Soloway, S B

    1976-01-01

    Naturally occurring insecticides are abundant and varied in their effects, though but a few are articles of commerce. Even for these, pyrethrum, nicotine, rotenone, hellebore, ryania, and sabadilla, there is a paucity of information on mammalian toxicology and environmental effects. In general, these materials are characterized favorably by low acute toxicity and ready dissipation in nature. Unfavorable aspects of natural insecticides are the contained mixture of active and inactive components and the low active ingredient content on a crop yield basis pointing to a high unit cost. Natural insecticides can serve additionally as leads to unnatural mimics, of which the commercially successful synthetic pyrethroids are prime examples. The chemical nature, relationship of insecticidal activity to chemical structure, occurrence, production, and utilization, registered uses, metabolism, and insect and mammalian toxicity are reviewed. PMID:789058

  1. Earthquake interdependence and insurance loss modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Muir Wood, R.

    2005-12-01

    Probabilistic Catastrophe loss modeling generally assumes that earthquakes are independent events and occur far enough apart in time that damage from one event is fully restituted before another earthquake occurs. While time dependence and cascade fault rupturing are today standard elements of the earthquake hazard engine, in the next generation of Catastrophe loss models one can expect to find a more comprehensive range of earthquake interdependence represented in a full simulation modeling environment. Such behavior includes the incorporation of the ways in which earthquakes relate one to another in both space and time (including foreshock, aftershock and triggered mainshock distinctions) and the damage that can be predicted from overlapping damage fields as related to the length of time for reconstruction that has elapsed between events. For insurance purposes losses are framed by the 168 hour clause for classifying losses as falling within the same `event' for reinsurance recoveries as well as the annual insurance contract. The understanding of the ways in which stress changes associated with fault rupture affect the probabilities of earthquakes on surrounding faults has also expanded the predictability of potential earthquake sequences as well as highlighted the potential to identify locations where, for some time window, risk can be discounted. While it can be illuminating to explore the loss and insurance implications of the patterns of historical earthquake occurrence seen historically along the Nankaido subduction zone of Southern Japan, in New Madrid from 1811-1812, or Nevada in 1954, the sequences to be expected in the future are unlikely to have historical precedent in the region in which they form.

  2. The persistence of directivity in small earthquakes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Boatwright, J.

    2007-01-01

    We derive a simple inversion of peak ground acceleration (PGA) or peak ground velocity (PGV) for rupture direction and rupture velocity and then test this inversion on the peak motions obtained from seven 3.5 ??? M ??? 4.1 earthquakes that occurred in two clusters in November 2002 and February 2003 near San Ramon, California. These clusters were located on two orthogonal strike-slip faults so that the events share the same approximate focal mechanism but not the same fault plane. Three earthquakes exhibit strong directivity, but the other four earthquakes exhibit relatively weak directivity. We use the residual PGAs and PGVs from the other six events to determine station corrections for each earthquake. The inferred rupture directions unambiguously identify the fault plane for the three earthquakes with strong directivity and for three of the four earthquakes with weak directivity. The events with strong directivity have fast rupture velocities (0.63????? v ??? 0.87??); the events with weak directivity either rupture more slowly (0.17????? v ???0.35??) or bilaterally. The simple unilateral inversion cannot distinguish between slow and bilateral ruptures: adding a bilateral rupture component degrades the fit of the rupture directions to the fault planes. By comparing PGAs from the events with strong and weak directivity, we show how an up-dip rupture in small events can distort the attenuation of peak ground motion with distance. When we compare the rupture directions of the earthquakes to the location of aftershocks in the two clusters, we find than almost all the aftershocks of the three earthquakes with strong directivity occur within 70?? of the direction of rupture.

  3. The Likelihood of Major Global Earthquakes and the 2014 Napa Earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ejeta, M. Z.

    2014-12-01

    A previous study that analyzed global major earthquakes of magnitude 7.6 and above for the 1897 to 1977 period suggests that random occurrence of these earthquakes is very unlikely (Olsson 1982). Following an analysis of global major earthquakes of magnitude 7 and above for the 1901 to January 2010 period, a recent study attempts to show an association between major global earthquake and cyclic lunisolar alignment events (Ejeta 2011). The latter study suggests that the inverse square relationship in Newton's law of universal gravitation is likely to explain the physics behind the skewed occurrences of major earthquake events around these alignment events. Using random and non-random occurrence analysis, this paper will present the likelihoods of major global earthquakes since 1990 through September 2014 and how the magnitude 6.0 Napa earthquake of 2014 may be a particular realization of the observed association. Specifically, it will show that using the random occurrence approach, the average probability of occurrence on any day of the 396 major earthquakes recorded by the United States Geological Survey (USGS) during the selected period, which has 9,039 days, is about 4.4%. It will also show that based on the observed association, these events are skewed, with average probabilities of about 39% and 68%, respectively, towards one and two days within lunisolar alignment events recorded by the National Aeronautic and Space Administration (NASA) during the same period. Of the 396 major earthquake events during the selected period, 154 and 271 occurred, respectively, within one and two days of either new, first quarter, full, or last quarter moon days. This result suggests that a major earthquake event that occurred during this period was more likely than not to have occurred within two days of an alignment event. The magnitude 6.0 Napa earthquake of August 24, 2014, occurred within a day of the August 25, 2014, new moon day. This paper suggests that further research

  4. Earthquake Recurrence and Slip Over the Past 4 - 5 events on the Southern Santa Cruz Mountains Section of the San Andreas Fault

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Streig, A. R.; Dawson, T. E.; Weldon, R. J.

    2011-12-01

    The Santa Cruz Mountains section (SAS) of the San Andreas fault last ruptured during the 1906 earthquake, an event that ruptured about 470 km, from Point Arena to San Juan Bautista, California. Paleoseismic studies on the SAS at the Grizzly Flat (GF) and Arano Flat - Mill Creek (AF) paleoseismic sites provide evidence of 1906 surface deformation, but have yielded differing records of prehistoric surface-fault ruptures. GF is located 14 km northwest of the AF site and records one 17th Century earthquake dated between 1632-1659 (Schwartz et al., 1996). The record at AF site records a younger penultimate earthquake between AD 1711 - 1770, with a third event between AD 1660-1670 (Fumal, in review). The AF sites suggest nine earthquakes in the past ~1000 years, and an average recurrence interval of 105 years over the past 1,000 years (Fumal et al., 2003). The Hazel Dell site is located approximately 9.5 km north of AF, between the AF and GF sites. This site has yielded good evidence of the most recent earthquake the 1906 surface rupture (E1), and 3 to 4 earlier events, including new evidence for two mid 1800's earthquakes. Evidence for the penultimate event, E2, is expressed as upward fault terminations within a massive sand infilling a topographic low. This sand infilled a depression formed by the pre-penultimate earthquake, E3. We identified milled wood stratigraphically below the pre-penultimate earthquake horizon, which suggests that surface rupturing earthquakes E2 and E3 occurred after deposition of the milled wood stratigraphic unit. Lumber harvesting began in the area around 1832, which suggests that earthquakes E2 and E3 are historical. Based on the presence of milled wood, the stratigraphic record at Hazel Dell appears more complete during the early historical period than at the AF and GF sites. These new event data for the SAS suggest more frequent surface rupturing earthquakes within historical time than previously recognized. We present a preliminary short

  5. Missing great earthquakes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hough, Susan E.

    2013-01-01

    The occurrence of three earthquakes with moment magnitude (Mw) greater than 8.8 and six earthquakes larger than Mw 8.5, since 2004, has raised interest in the long-term global rate of great earthquakes. Past studies have focused on the analysis of earthquakes since 1900, which roughly marks the start of the instrumental era in seismology. Before this time, the catalog is less complete and magnitude estimates are more uncertain. Yet substantial information is available for earthquakes before 1900, and the catalog of historical events is being used increasingly to improve hazard assessment. Here I consider the catalog of historical earthquakes and show that approximately half of all Mw ≥ 8.5 earthquakes are likely missing or underestimated in the 19th century. I further present a reconsideration of the felt effects of the 8 February 1843, Lesser Antilles earthquake, including a first thorough assessment of felt reports from the United States, and show it is an example of a known historical earthquake that was significantly larger than initially estimated. The results suggest that incorporation of best available catalogs of historical earthquakes will likely lead to a significant underestimation of seismic hazard and/or the maximum possible magnitude in many regions, including parts of the Caribbean.

  6. Prototype operational earthquake prediction system

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Spall, Henry

    1986-01-01

    An objective if the U.S. Earthquake Hazards Reduction Act of 1977 is to introduce into all regions of the country that are subject to large and moderate earthquakes, systems for predicting earthquakes and assessing earthquake risk. In 1985, the USGS developed for the Secretary of the Interior a program for implementation of a prototype operational earthquake prediction system in southern California.

  7. The Algerian earthquake of October 10, 1980 - a preliminary report

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Espinosa, A.F.

    1981-01-01

    The earthquake occurred at 1.25 pm local time and had a surface-wave magnitude of 7.3. The main event was followed by an aftershock 3 hours later with a magnitude of 6.0. The main earthquake epicenter was located 170 km from the capital, Algiers. -from Author

  8. Is there a periodicity in the occurrence of earthquakes?

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hunter, R.N.

    1976-01-01

    Various periodicities have been suspected in earthquake activity, but none has yet been proved. In his classic text on seismology, K.E Bullen remarked that small but discernable "trigger" forces, such as tidal effects, temperature changes or barometric changes, have been thought to act as "last straw" phenomena when the earthquake would have occurred anyway. 

  9. Research in earthquake prediction - the Parkfield prediction experiment

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Spall, Henry

    1986-01-01

    The 15-mile-long Parkfield, California, section of the Sam Andreas fault is the best understood earthquake source region in the world. Moderate-sized earthquakes of local magnitude 5 3/4 occurred at Parkfield in 1881, 1901, 1922, 1934, and 1966.

  10. Nepal Earthquake: Exploring some of the Catastrophes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hazra, Pranab; Sundar De, Syam; Paul, Suman; Ghosh, Abhijit; Guha, Gautam

    2016-07-01

    The characteristic variations of different meteorological parameters during the period of Nepal earthquakes having M=7.8 occurred on April 25, 2015 and M=7.3 on May 12, 2015 are presented. The results are interpreted in terms of Lithosphere-Atmosphere-Ionosphere coupling processes occurred due to thermal anomalies in the event of major earthquakes. These are reported in terms of thermodynamic properties within the lower ionosphere. The differences in the results are explained through the emission of α-particle from Rn ^{222}.

  11. Implications for prediction and hazard assessment from the 2004 Parkfield earthquake.

    PubMed

    Bakun, W H; Aagaard, B; Dost, B; Ellsworth, W L; Hardebeck, J L; Harris, R A; Ji, C; Johnston, M J S; Langbein, J; Lienkaemper, J J; Michael, A J; Murray, J R; Nadeau, R M; Reasenberg, P A; Reichle, M S; Roeloffs, E A; Shakal, A; Simpson, R W; Waldhauser, F

    2005-10-13

    Obtaining high-quality measurements close to a large earthquake is not easy: one has to be in the right place at the right time with the right instruments. Such a convergence happened, for the first time, when the 28 September 2004 Parkfield, California, earthquake occurred on the San Andreas fault in the middle of a dense network of instruments designed to record it. The resulting data reveal aspects of the earthquake process never before seen. Here we show what these data, when combined with data from earlier Parkfield earthquakes, tell us about earthquake physics and earthquake prediction. The 2004 Parkfield earthquake, with its lack of obvious precursors, demonstrates that reliable short-term earthquake prediction still is not achievable. To reduce the societal impact of earthquakes now, we should focus on developing the next generation of models that can provide better predictions of the strength and location of damaging ground shaking.

  12. Naturally Occurring Food Toxins

    PubMed Central

    Dolan, Laurie C.; Matulka, Ray A.; Burdock, George A.

    2010-01-01

    Although many foods contain toxins as a naturally-occurring constituent or, are formed as the result of handling or processing, the incidence of adverse reactions to food is relatively low. The low incidence of adverse effects is the result of some pragmatic solutions by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and other regulatory agencies through the creative use of specifications, action levels, tolerances, warning labels and prohibitions. Manufacturers have also played a role by setting limits on certain substances and developing mitigation procedures for process-induced toxins. Regardless of measures taken by regulators and food producers to protect consumers from natural food toxins, consumption of small levels of these materials is unavoidable. Although the risk for toxicity due to consumption of food toxins is fairly low, there is always the possibility of toxicity due to contamination, overconsumption, allergy or an unpredictable idiosyncratic response. The purpose of this review is to provide a toxicological and regulatory overview of some of the toxins present in some commonly consumed foods, and where possible, discuss the steps that have been taken to reduce consumer exposure, many of which are possible because of the unique process of food regulation in the United States. PMID:22069686

  13. Prediction of Future Great Earthquake Locations from Cumulative Stresses Released by Prior Earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, J.; Hong, T. K.

    2014-12-01

    There are 17 great earthquakes with magnitude greater than or equal to 8.5 in the world since 1900. The great events cause significant damages to the humanity. The prediction of potential maximum magnitudes of earthquakes is important for seismic hazard mitigation. In this study, we calculate the Coulomb stress changes around the active plate margins for 507 events with magnitudes greater than 7.0 during 1976-2013 to estimate the cumulative stress releases. We investigate the spatio-temporal variations of ambient stress field from the cumulative Coulomb stress changes as a function of plate motion speed, plate age and dipping angle. It is observed that the largest stress drop occur in relatively high plate velocity in the convergent margins between Nazca and South American plates, between Pacific and North American plates, between Philippine Sea and Eurasian plates, and between Pacific and Australian plates. It is intriguing to note that the great earthquakes such as Tohoku-Oki earthquake and Maule earthquake occur in the highest plate velocity. On the other hand, the largest stress drop occur in the margins with relatively slow plate speeds such as the boundaries between Cocos and North American plates and between Indo-Australian and Eurasian plates. Earthquakes occur dominantly in the regions with positive Coulomb stress changes, suggesting that post-earthquakes are controlled by the stresses released from prior earthquakes. We find strong positive correlations between Coulomb stress changes and plate speeds. The observation suggests that large stress drop was controlled by high plate speed, suggesting possible prediction of potential maximum magnitudes of events.

  14. Stress evolution and earthquake triggering in southern California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Deng, Jishu

    Accumulative changes in stress in southern California are computed from 1812 to 2025 using as input (1) stress drops associated with 36 moderate to great earthquakes through 1995 and (2) stress buildup associated with major faults with slip rates ≥3 mm/yr as constrained by geodetic, paleoseismic and seismic measurements. All calculations are performed for an elastic half-space with respect to an arbitrary zero baseline in 1812 before the Wrightwood earthquake on the San Andreas fault. Evolution of stress and the triggering of small to large earthquakes are treated in a tensorial rather than a scalar manner. Calculations show a magnitude-independent correlation between events in a variety of timescales during 1812 and 1995 and the cumulative Coulomb Failure Function (DeltaCFF) as a function of time. During the period 1812-1994, most known M≥6 earthquakes whose mechanisms involve either strike-slip or reverse faulting are consistent with the Coulomb stress evolutionary model, i.e., they occurred in areas of positive DeltaCFF. About 85% of M≥5 earthquakes between 1932 and 1995 are also located in areas of positive changes in stress. Between 1981 and 1992 before the Landers earthquakes, dominant number of strike-slip events occurred at regions where stress is about 1 MPa above the 1812 baseline. Maps of current DeltaCFF provide additional guides to long-term earthquake prediction. In the future, many earthquakes will continue to occur in areas of positive changes in stress. Future great earthquakes along the San Andreas fault, especially if the San Bernardino and Coachella Valley segments rupture together, can trigger moderate to large earthquakes in the Transverse Ranges, as appears to have happened in the Santa Barbara earthquake that occurred 13 days after the great San Andreas shock of 1812.

  15. Earthquakes, active faults, and geothermal areas in the imperial valley, california.

    PubMed

    Hill, D P; Mowinckel, P; Peake, L G

    1975-06-27

    A dense seismograph network in the Imperial Valley recorded a series of earthquake swarms along the Imperial and Brawley faults and a diffuse pattern of earthquakes along the San Jacinto fault. Two known geothermal areas are closely associated with these earthquake swarms. This seismicity pattern demonstrates that seismic slip is occurring along both the Imperial-Brawley and San Jacinto fault systems.

  16. Use of wavelets techniques to discriminate between explosions and natural earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Beccar-Varela, Maria P.; Gonzalez-Huizar, Hector; Mariani, Maria C.; Tweneboah, Osei K.

    2016-09-01

    Wavelets analysis is used to discriminate between explosions and natural earthquakes. We applied wavelets techniques to analyze the seismograms of a set of mining explosions, reported in catalogs as earthquakes, and compared them with natural earthquakes that occurred in the same region (within a radius of 10 km).

  17. Earthquakes clustering based on the magnitude and the depths in Molluca Province

    SciTech Connect

    Wattimanela, H. J.; Pasaribu, U. S.; Indratno, S. W.; Puspito, A. N. T.

    2015-12-22

    In this paper, we present a model to classify the earthquakes occurred in Molluca Province. We use K-Means clustering method to classify the earthquake based on the magnitude and the depth of the earthquake. The result can be used for disaster mitigation and for designing evacuation route in Molluca Province.

  18. Non-volcanic tremors, low-frequency earthquake swarms, and their association with orogenic fluid flow in Taiwan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, K. H.; Kim, A.; Chuang, Y. L.; Peng, W.; Leu, T.

    2012-12-01

    Taiwan is a young transpressive orogen exhibiting high uplift and exhumation. Under the southern flank of Central Range, two types of seismic activities typically observed in volcanic region are found to occur closely in space. Swarms of earthquakes showing vertical planar features occur frequently at a depth range of 0-20 km, whereas some shallow events (< 7 km) reveal the characteristics similar to volcanic low-frequency earthquakes: (1) dominant by ~ 2 Hz (2) lack of S phases (3) long coda. Below the swarm events, the deep-seated, ambient tremors are also observed. Spatial correlation between deeper tremor and shallow low-frequency swarm events indicates a common generation mechanism. These two seismic activities are confined in a small area where the localized veining, anomalous magnetic and thermal anomalies are distributed, suggesting the involvement of fluid-pressure processes within the orogen. Here we pay special attention to develop an automatic detection scheme for Taiwan tremors. Using this method we find 87 tremor episodes with duration ranging from 5 to 30 minutes. The tremors activity appears to have increased at the time of local M6 earthquakes. In March 2008, an active swarm composed of 632 events (M0.4-5.2) occurred only two days apart of the preceding tremor episode (duration 60 minutes). The possible spatial and temporal relationship between ambient tremors and earthquake swarms provides a rare opportunity for the understanding of tremor source model. Here we examine if the swarms are induced by shear stress increases due to slip events along the decollement underneath Central Range. Other than slip model, fluid-filled cracks model is also examined. Moment tensor inversion will be used to determine focal mechanism of the low-frequency earthquake swarms, to investigate the fluids related volume changes.

  19. Absence of remotely triggered large earthquakes beyond the mainshock region

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Parsons, T.; Velasco, A.A.

    2011-01-01

    Large earthquakes are known to trigger earthquakes elsewhere. Damaging large aftershocks occur close to the mainshock and microearthquakes are triggered by passing seismic waves at significant distances from the mainshock. It is unclear, however, whether bigger, more damaging earthquakes are routinely triggered at distances far from the mainshock, heightening the global seismic hazard after every large earthquake. Here we assemble a catalogue of all possible earthquakes greater than M 5 that might have been triggered by every M 7 or larger mainshock during the past 30 years. We compare the timing of earthquakes greater than M 5 with the temporal and spatial passage of surface waves generated by large earthquakes using a complete worldwide catalogue. Whereas small earthquakes are triggered immediately during the passage of surface waves at all spatial ranges, we find no significant temporal association between surface-wave arrivals and larger earthquakes. We observe a significant increase in the rate of seismic activity at distances confined to within two to three rupture lengths of the mainshock. Thus, we conclude that the regional hazard of larger earthquakes is increased after a mainshock, but the global hazard is not.

  20. Earthquake Monitoring and Early Warning Systems in Taiwan (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, Y.

    2010-12-01

    The Taiwan region is characterized by a high shortening rate and a strong seismic activity. The Central Weather Bureau (CWB) is responsible for the earthquake monitoring in Taiwan. The CWB seismic network consists of 71 real-time short-period seismic stations in Taiwan region for routinely earthquake monitoring and has recorded about 18,000 events each year in a roughly 400 km x 550 km region. There are 53 real-time broadband stations install for seismological research purposes and reporting moment tensor solution in Taiwan. With the implementation of a real-time strong-motion network by the CWB, earthquake rapid reporting and early warning systems have been developed in Taiwan. The network consists of 110 stations. For rapid reporting system, when a potentially felt earthquake occurs around the Taiwan area, the location, magnitude and shake map of seismic intensities can be automatically reported within about 40 to 60 sec. For large earthquakes, the shaking map and losses can be estimated within 2 min after the earthquake occurrence. For earthquake early warning system, earthquake information could be determined at about 15 to 20 sec after a large earthquake occurrence. Therefore, this system can provide early warning before the arrival of S-wave for metropolitan areas located 70 km away from the epicenter. Recently, onsite earthquake early warning device is developed using MEMS sensor. It focuses on that to offer early warning for areas close to the epicenter.

  1. Revisiting the Canterbury earthquake sequence after the 14 February 2016 Mw 5.7 event

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Herman, Matthew W.; Furlong, Kevin P.

    2016-07-01

    On 14 February 2016, an Mw 5.7 (GNS Science moment magnitude) earthquake ruptured offshore east of Christchurch, New Zealand. This earthquake occurred in an area that had previously experienced significant seismicity from 2010 to 2012 during the Canterbury earthquake sequence, starting with the 2010 Mw 7.0 Darfield earthquake and including four Mw ~6.0 earthquakes near Christchurch. We determine source parameters for the February 2016 event and its aftershocks, relocate the recent events along with the Canterbury earthquakes, and compute Coulomb stress changes resolved onto the recent events and throughout the greater Christchurch region. Because the February 2016 earthquake occurred close to previous seismicity, the Coulomb stress changes resolved onto its nodal planes are uncertain. However, in the greater Christchurch region, there are areas that remain positively loaded, including beneath the city of Christchurch. The recent earthquake and regional stress changes suggest that faults in these regions may pose a continuing seismic hazard.

  2. Real-time earthquake monitoring using a search engine method.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Jie; Zhang, Haijiang; Chen, Enhong; Zheng, Yi; Kuang, Wenhuan; Zhang, Xiong

    2014-12-04

    When an earthquake occurs, seismologists want to use recorded seismograms to infer its location, magnitude and source-focal mechanism as quickly as possible. If such information could be determined immediately, timely evacuations and emergency actions could be undertaken to mitigate earthquake damage. Current advanced methods can report the initial location and magnitude of an earthquake within a few seconds, but estimating the source-focal mechanism may require minutes to hours. Here we present an earthquake search engine, similar to a web search engine, that we developed by applying a computer fast search method to a large seismogram database to find waveforms that best fit the input data. Our method is several thousand times faster than an exact search. For an Mw 5.9 earthquake on 8 March 2012 in Xinjiang, China, the search engine can infer the earthquake's parameters in <1 s after receiving the long-period surface wave data.

  3. Earthquake Hazard in the Heart of the Homeland

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gomberg, Joan; Schweig, Eugene

    2007-01-01

    Evidence that earthquakes threaten the Mississippi, Ohio, and Wabash River valleys of the Central United States abounds. In fact, several of the largest historical earthquakes to strike the continental United States occurred in the winter of 1811-1812 along the New Madrid seismic zone, which stretches from just west of Memphis, Tenn., into southern Illinois. Several times in the past century, moderate earthquakes have been widely felt in the Wabash Valley seismic zone along the southern border of Illinois and Indiana. Throughout the region, between 150 and 200 earthquakes are recorded annually by a network of monitoring instruments, although most are too small to be felt by people. Geologic evidence for prehistoric earthquakes throughout the region has been mounting since the late 1970s. But how significant is the threat? How likely are large earthquakes and, more importantly, what is the chance that the shaking they cause will be damaging?

  4. A new physical model for earthquake time interval distribution

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Guoliang

    2017-01-01

    This paper reports a new physical model for time interval distribution of earthquakes, which was obtained by borrowing the idea from the research in the time interval distribution of sand-dust storms. Of the model, it was hypothesized that the earthquakes were induced by the magma movement inside the earth, and if the speed of magma ≥ threshold value Ut, the earthquakes with magnitude ≥ M occurred. With this model, it was obtained that for the earthquakes with magnitude ≥ M there existed lg N(> t) = c - dt, where N was the number of time intervals longer than t; the value d decreased with M. This result was also verified by analyzing the earthquake data from the China Earthquake Networks Center (CENC).

  5. Mapping southern Puget Sound delta fronts after 2001 earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gardner, James V.; van den Ameele, Edward J.; Gelfenbaum, Guy; Bernhardt, Walter; Lee, Homa; Palmer, Steve

    2001-01-01

    A moment magnitude 6.8 earthquake struck southern Puget Sound (Figure 1) on February 28, 2001, causing an estimated $0.7–$1.4 billion in damages to buildings and roadways in the region [Williams et al., 2001]. The earthquake source was 52 km deep, and the epicenter was located close to the Nisqually River delta in the same location as the epicenter of the magnitude 7.1 earthquake of 1949 (http://www.geophys.washington.edu/seis/pnsn/info_ general/). These deep earthquakes occurred in the eastward-dipping subducting slab of the Juan de Fuca plate and typically caused less damage than shallower, crustal events of the same magnitude. Details of the seismology and effects of the earthquake can be found at http://earthquake.usgs.gov/activity/latest/ eq_01_02_28.html.

  6. Potential for a large earthquake near Los Angeles inferred from the 2014 La Habra earthquake.

    PubMed

    Donnellan, Andrea; Grant Ludwig, Lisa; Parker, Jay W; Rundle, John B; Wang, Jun; Pierce, Marlon; Blewitt, Geoffrey; Hensley, Scott

    2015-09-01

    Tectonic motion across the Los Angeles region is distributed across an intricate network of strike-slip and thrust faults that will be released in destructive earthquakes similar to or larger than the 1933 M6.4 Long Beach and 1994 M6.7 Northridge events. Here we show that Los Angeles regional thrust, strike-slip, and oblique faults are connected and move concurrently with measurable surface deformation, even in moderate magnitude earthquakes, as part of a fault system that accommodates north-south shortening and westerly tectonic escape of northern Los Angeles. The 28 March 2014 M5.1 La Habra earthquake occurred on a northeast striking, northwest dipping left-lateral oblique thrust fault northeast of Los Angeles. We present crustal deformation observation spanning the earthquake showing that concurrent deformation occurred on several structures in the shallow crust. The seismic moment of the earthquake is 82% of the total geodetic moment released. Slip within the unconsolidated upper sedimentary layer may reflect shallow release of accumulated strain on still-locked deeper structures. A future M6.1-6.3 earthquake would account for the accumulated strain. Such an event could occur on any one or several of these faults, which may not have been identified by geologic surface mapping.

  7. Potential for a large earthquake near Los Angeles inferred from the 2014 La Habra earthquake

    PubMed Central

    Grant Ludwig, Lisa; Parker, Jay W.; Rundle, John B.; Wang, Jun; Pierce, Marlon; Blewitt, Geoffrey; Hensley, Scott

    2015-01-01

    Abstract Tectonic motion across the Los Angeles region is distributed across an intricate network of strike‐slip and thrust faults that will be released in destructive earthquakes similar to or larger than the 1933 M6.4 Long Beach and 1994 M6.7 Northridge events. Here we show that Los Angeles regional thrust, strike‐slip, and oblique faults are connected and move concurrently with measurable surface deformation, even in moderate magnitude earthquakes, as part of a fault system that accommodates north‐south shortening and westerly tectonic escape of northern Los Angeles. The 28 March 2014 M5.1 La Habra earthquake occurred on a northeast striking, northwest dipping left‐lateral oblique thrust fault northeast of Los Angeles. We present crustal deformation observation spanning the earthquake showing that concurrent deformation occurred on several structures in the shallow crust. The seismic moment of the earthquake is 82% of the total geodetic moment released. Slip within the unconsolidated upper sedimentary layer may reflect shallow release of accumulated strain on still‐locked deeper structures. A future M6.1–6.3 earthquake would account for the accumulated strain. Such an event could occur on any one or several of these faults, which may not have been identified by geologic surface mapping. PMID:27981074

  8. On the reported magnetic precursor of the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thomas, Jeremy N.; Love, Jeffrey J.; Johnston, Malcolm J. S.

    2009-04-01

    Among the most frequently cited reports in the science of earthquake prediction is that by Fraser-Smith et al. (1990) and Bernardi et al. (1991). They found anomalous enhancement of magnetic-field noise levels prior to the 18 October 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake in the ultra-low-frequency range (0.0110-10.001 Hz) from a ground-based sensor at Corralitos, CA, just 7 km from the earthquake epicenter. In this analysis, we re-examine all of the available Corralitos data (21 months from January 1989 to October 1990) and the logbook kept during this extended operational period. We also examine 1.0-Hz (1-s) data collected from Japan, 0.0167-Hz (1-min) data collected from the Fresno, CA magnetic observatory, and the global Kp magnetic-activity index. The Japanese data are of particular importance since their acquisition rate is sufficient to allow direct comparison with the lower-frequency bands of the Corralitos data. We identify numerous problems in the Corralitos data, evident from both straightforward examination of the Corralitos data on their own and by comparison with the Japanese and Fresno data sets. The most notable problems are changes in the baseline noise levels occurring during both the reported precursory period and at other times long before and after the earthquake. We conclude that the reported anomalous magnetic noise identified by Fraser-Smith et al. and Bernardi et al. is not related to the Loma Prieta earthquake but is an artifact of sensor-system malfunction.

  9. On the reported magnetic precursor of the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Thomas, J.N.; Love, J.J.; Johnston, M.J.S.

    2009-01-01

    Among the most frequently cited reports in the science of earthquake prediction is that by Fraser-Smith et al. (1990) and Bernardi et al. (1991). They found anomalous enhancement of magnetic-field noise levels prior to the 18 October 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake in the ultra-low-frequency range (0.0110-10.001 Hz) from a ground-based sensor at Corralitos, CA, just 7 km from the earthquake epicenter. In this analysis, we re-examine all of the available Corralitos data (21 months from January 1989 to October 1990) and the logbook kept during this extended operational period. We also examine 1.0-Hz (1-s) data collected from Japan, 0.0167-Hz (1-min) data collected from the Fresno, CA magnetic observatory, and the global Kp magnetic-activity index. The Japanese data are of particular importance since their acquisition rate is sufficient to allow direct comparison with the lower-frequency bands of the Corralitos data. We identify numerous problems in the Corralitos data, evident from both straightforward examination of the Corralitos data on their own and by comparison with the Japanese and Fresno data sets. The most notable problems are changes in the baseline noise levels occurring during both the reported precursory period and at other times long before and after the earthquake. We conclude that the reported anomalous magnetic noise identified by Fraser-Smith et al. and Bernardi et al. is not related to the Loma Prieta earthquake but is an artifact of sensor-system malfunction. ?? 2008 Elsevier B.V.

  10. Source parameters of a M4.8 and its accompanying repeating earthquakes off Kamaishi, NE Japan: Implications for the hierarchical structure of asperities and earthquake cycle

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Uchida, N.; Matsuzawa, T.; Ellsworth, W.L.; Imanishi, K.; Okada, T.; Hasegawa, A.

    2007-01-01

    We determine the source parameters of a M4.9 ?? 0.1 'characteristic earthquake' sequence and its accompanying microearthquakes at ???50 km depth on the subduction plate boundary offshore of Kamaishi, NE Japan. The microearthquakes tend to occur more frequently in the latter half of the recurrence intervals of the M4.9 ?? 0.1 events. Our results show that the microearthquakes are repeating events and they are located not only around but also within the slip area for the 2001 M4.8 event. From the hierarchical structure of slip areas and smaller stress drops for the microearthquakes compared to the M4.8 event, we infer the small repeating earthquakes rupture relatively weak patches in and around the slip area for the M4.8 event and their activity reflects a stress concentration process and/or change in frictional property (healing) at the area. We also infer the patches for the M4.9 ?? 0.1 and other repeating earthquakes undergo aseismic slip during their interseismic period. Copyright 2007 by the American Geophysical Union.

  11. Psychological Intervention in Primary Care After Earthquakes in Lorca, Spain

    PubMed Central

    Garriga, Ascensión; Egea, Carmen

    2015-01-01

    Objective: After the earthquakes that occurred in Lorca, Spain, on May 11, 2011, the regional mental health management employed 2 clinical psychologists for 6 months to provide care to people referred by primary care physicians. The objective was to address the expected increased demand for treatment of mental disorders, notably posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and adjustment disorders. Method: Referred individuals were evaluated and treated according to a clinical protocol designed ad hoc from June 12, 2011, to November 30, 2011. The protocol provided a stepped intervention guided by clinical and psychometric assessment using “normalization” for those with no psychiatric diagnosis, brief group treatment for mild to moderate PTSD or adjustment disorders, individual treatment for more severe PTSD, and referral to the local mental health center for other mental health disorders. Standard adult and child scales to assess posttraumatic, depression, and anxiety symptoms and resilience were used at initial assessment to guide treatment allocation and repeated to assess outcome status. Psychologists also provided a clinical assessment of symptom resolution at the end of the study. Results: Rates of symptom resolution and improvements on all scales (PTSD, depression, anxiety, and resilience) demonstrated clinically and statistically significant improvement in all treatment groups (P = .000). Dropout was low. Medications were prescribed frequently to adults; no child received medication as a result of the earthquakes. No case of mental disorder related to the earthquakes was referred to the local mental health center during the 6 months of psychologist intervention. Conclusion:The structured intervention resulted in a high resolution of cases and low dropout, allowing treatment of a larger number of people with optimal frequency (weekly), devoting more time to the most severe cases and less to those moderately or mildly affected. PMID:26137356

  12. NCEER seminars on earthquakes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Pantelic, J.

    1987-01-01

    In May of 1986, the National Center for Earthquake Engineering Research (NCEER) in Buffalo, New York, held the first seminar in its new monthly forum called Seminars on Earthquakes. The Center's purpose in initiating the seminars was to educate the audience about earthquakes, to facilitate cooperation between the NCEER and visiting researchers, and to enable visiting speakers to learn more about the NCEER   

  13. Clustered and transient earthquake sequences in mid-continents

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, M.; Stein, S. A.; Wang, H.; Luo, G.

    2012-12-01

    Earthquakes result from sudden release of strain energy on faults. On plate boundary faults, strain energy is constantly accumulating from steady and relatively rapid relative plate motion, so large earthquakes continue to occur so long as motion continues on the boundary. In contrast, such steady accumulation of stain energy does not occur on faults in mid-continents, because the far-field tectonic loading is not steadily distributed between faults, and because stress perturbations from complex fault interactions and other stress triggers can be significant relative to the slow tectonic stressing. Consequently, mid-continental earthquakes are often temporally clustered and transient, and spatially migrating. This behavior is well illustrated by large earthquakes in North China in the past two millennia, during which no single large earthquakes repeated on the same fault segments, but moment release between large fault systems was complementary. Slow tectonic loading in mid-continents also causes long aftershock sequences. We show that the recent small earthquakes in the Tangshan region of North China are aftershocks of the 1976 Tangshan earthquake (M 7.5), rather than indicators of a new phase of seismic activity in North China, as many fear. Understanding the transient behavior of mid-continental earthquakes has important implications for assessing earthquake hazards. The sequence of large earthquakes in the New Madrid Seismic Zone (NMSZ) in central US, which includes a cluster of M~7 events in 1811-1812 and perhaps a few similar ones in the past millennium, is likely a transient process, releasing previously accumulated elastic strain on recently activated faults. If so, this earthquake sequence will eventually end. Using simple analysis and numerical modeling, we show that the large NMSZ earthquakes may be ending now or in the near future.

  14. Earthquake history of Oregon

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    von Hake, C. A.

    1976-01-01

    Although situated between two States (California and Washington) that have has many violent earthquakes, Oregon is noticeably less active seismically. the greatest damage experienced resulted from a major shock near Olympia, Wash., in 1949. During the short history record available (since 1841), 34 earthquakes of intensity V, Modified Mercalli Scale, or greater have centered within Oregon or near its borders. Only 13 of the earthquakes had an intensity above V, and many of the shocks were local. However, a 1936 earthquake in the eastern Oregon-Washington region caused extensive damage and was felt over an area of 272,000 square kilometers. 

  15. Earthquakes of the Holocene.

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Schwartz, D.P.

    1987-01-01

    Areas in which significant new data and insights have been obtained are: 1) fault slip rates; 2) earthquake recurrence models; 3) fault segmentation; 4) dating past earthquakes; 5) paleoseismicity in the E and central US; 6) folds and earthquakes, and 7) future earthquake behavior. Summarizes important trends in each of these research areas based on information published between June 1982 and June 1986 and preprints of papers in press. The bibliography for this period contains mainly referred publications in journals and books.-from Author

  16. Are Earthquake Magnitudes Clustered?

    SciTech Connect

    Davidsen, Joern; Green, Adam

    2011-03-11

    The question of earthquake predictability is a long-standing and important challenge. Recent results [Phys. Rev. Lett. 98, 098501 (2007); ibid.100, 038501 (2008)] have suggested that earthquake magnitudes are clustered, thus indicating that they are not independent in contrast to what is typically assumed. Here, we present evidence that the observed magnitude correlations are to a large extent, if not entirely, an artifact due to the incompleteness of earthquake catalogs and the well-known modified Omori law. The latter leads to variations in the frequency-magnitude distribution if the distribution is constrained to those earthquakes that are close in space and time to the directly following event.

  17. Induced earthquake magnitudes are as large as (statistically) expected

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van der Elst, N.; Page, M. T.; Weiser, D. A.; Goebel, T.; Hosseini, S. M.

    2015-12-01

    Key questions with implications for seismic hazard and industry practice are how large injection-induced earthquakes can be, and whether their maximum size is smaller than for similarly located tectonic earthquakes. Deterministic limits on induced earthquake magnitudes have been proposed based on the size of the reservoir or the volume of fluid injected. McGarr (JGR 2014) showed that for earthquakes confined to the reservoir and triggered by pore-pressure increase, the maximum moment should be limited to the product of the shear modulus G and total injected volume ΔV. However, if induced earthquakes occur on tectonic faults oriented favorably with respect to the tectonic stress field, then they may be limited only by the regional tectonics and connectivity of the fault network, with an absolute maximum magnitude that is notoriously difficult to constrain. A common approach for tectonic earthquakes is to use the magnitude-frequency distribution of smaller earthquakes to forecast the largest earthquake expected in some time period. In this study, we show that the largest magnitudes observed at fluid injection sites are consistent with the sampling statistics of the Gutenberg-Richter (GR) distribution for tectonic earthquakes, with no assumption of an intrinsic upper bound. The GR law implies that the largest observed earthquake in a sample should scale with the log of the total number induced. We find that the maximum magnitudes at most sites are consistent with this scaling, and that maximum magnitude increases with log ΔV. We find little in the size distribution to distinguish induced from tectonic earthquakes. That being said, the probabilistic estimate exceeds the deterministic GΔV cap only for expected magnitudes larger than ~M6, making a definitive test of the models unlikely in the near future. In the meantime, however, it may be prudent to treat the hazard from induced earthquakes with the same probabilistic machinery used for tectonic earthquakes.

  18. Seismic and Geodetic Investigation of the 1996-1998 Earthquake Swarm at Strandline Lake, Alaska

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kilgore, W.; Roman, D. C.; Power, J. A.; Hansen, R. A.; Biggs, J.

    2009-12-01

    Microearthquake (< M3.0) swarms occur frequently in volcanic environments, but do not always culminate in an eruption. Such non-eruptive swarms may be caused by stresses induced by magma intrusion, hydrothermal fluid circulation, or regional tectonic processes, such as slow-slip earthquakes. Strandline Lake, located 30 km northeast of Mount Spurr volcano in south-central Alaska, experienced a strong earthquake swarm between August 1996 and August 1998. The Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO) catalog indicates that a total of 2,999 earthquakes were detected during the swarm period, with a maximum magnitude of Mw 3.1 and a depth range of 0-30 km below sea level (with the majority of catalog hypocenters located between 5-10 km BSL). The cumulative seismic moment of the swarm was 2.03e15 N m, equivalent to a cumulative magnitude of Mw 4.2. Because of the swarm's distance from the nearest Holocene volcanic vent, seismic monitoring was poor and gas and deformation data for the swarm period do not exist. However, combined waveforms from a dense seismic network on Mount Spurr and from several regional seismic stations allowed us to re-analyze the swarm earthquakes. We first developed a new 1-D velocity model for the Strandline Lake region by re-picking and inverting precise arrival times for 27 large Strandline Lake earthquakes. The new velocity model reduced the average RMS for these earthquakes from 0.16 to 0.11s, and the average horizontal and vertical location errors from 3.3 to 2.5 km and 4.7 to 3.0 km, respectively. Depths of the 27 earthquakes ranged from 10.5 to 22.1 km with an average depth of 16.6 km. A moderately high b-value of 1.33 was determined for the swarm period, possibly indicative of magmatic activity. However, a similarly high b-value of 1.25 was calculated for the background period. 28 well-constrained fault plane solutions for both swarm and background earthquakes indicate a diverse mixture of strike-slip, dip-slip, and reverse faulting beneath

  19. A century of induced earthquakes in Oklahoma?

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hough, Susan E.; Page, Morgan T.

    2015-01-01

    Seismicity rates have increased sharply since 2009 in the central and eastern United States, with especially high rates of activity in the state of Oklahoma. Growing evidence indicates that many of these events are induced, primarily by injection of wastewater in deep disposal wells. The upsurge in activity has raised two questions: What is the background rate of tectonic earthquakes in Oklahoma? How much has the rate varied throughout historical and early instrumental times? In this article, we show that (1) seismicity rates since 2009 surpass previously observed rates throughout the twentieth century; (2) several lines of evidence suggest that most of the significant earthquakes in Oklahoma during the twentieth century were likely induced by oil production activities, as they exhibit statistically significant temporal and spatial correspondence with disposal wells, and intensity measurements for the 1952 El Reno earthquake and possibly the 1956 Tulsa County earthquake follow the pattern observed in other induced earthquakes; and (3) there is evidence for a low level of tectonic seismicity in southeastern Oklahoma associated with the Ouachita structural belt. The 22 October 1882 Choctaw Nation earthquake, for which we estimate Mw 4.8, occurred in this zone.

  20. A revised “earthquake report” questionaire

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Stover, C.; Reagor, G.; Simon, R.

    1976-01-01

    The U.S geological Survey is responsible for conducting intensity and damage surveys following felt or destructive earthquakes in the United States. Shortly after a felt or damaging earthquake occurs, a canvass of the affected area is made. Specially developed questionnaires are mailed to volunteer observers located within the estimated felt area. These questionnaires, "Earthquake Reports," are filled out by the observers and returned to the Survey's National Earthquake Information Service, which is located in Colorado. They are then evaluated, and, based on answers to questions about physical effects seen or felt, each canvassed location is assigned to the various locations, they are plotted on an intensity distribution map. When all of the intensity data have been plotted, isoseismals can then be contoured through places where equal intensity was experienced. The completed isoseismal map yields a detailed picture of the earthquake, its effects, and its felt area. All of the data and maps are published quarterly in a U.S Geological Survey Circular series entitled "Earthquakes in the United States".  

  1. Rupture Process of the 1969 and 1975 Kurile Earthquakes Estimated from Tsunami Waveform Analyses

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ioki, Kei; Tanioka, Yuichiro

    2016-12-01

    The 1969 and 1975 great Kurile earthquakes occurred along the Kurile trench. Tsunamis generated by these earthquakes were observed at tide gauge stations around the coasts of the Okhotsk Sea and Pacific Ocean. To understand rupture process of the 1969 and 1975 earthquakes, slip distributions of the 1969 and 1975 events were estimated using tsunami waveform inversion technique. Seismic moments estimated from slip distributions of the 1969 and 1975 earthquakes were 1.1 × 1021 Nm ( M w 8.0) and 0.6 × 1021 Nm ( M w 7.8), respectively. The 1973 Nemuro-Oki earthquake occurred at the plate interface adjacent to that ruptured by the 1969 Kurile earthquake. The 1975 Shikotan earthquake occurred in a shallow region of the plate interface where was not ruptured by the 1969 Kurile earthquake. Further, like a sequence of the 1969 and 1975 earthquakes, it is possible that a great earthquake may occur in a shallow part of the plate interface a few years after a great earthquake that occurs in a deeper part of the same region along the trench.

  2. EVIDENCE FOR THREE MODERATE TO LARGE PREHISTORIC HOLOCENE EARTHQUAKES NEAR CHARLESTON, S. C.

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Weems, Robert E.; Obermeier, Stephen F.; Pavich, Milan J.; Gohn, Gregory S.; Rubin, Meyer; Phipps, Richard L.; Jacobson, Robert B.

    1986-01-01

    Earthquake-induced liquefaction features (sand blows), found near Hollywood, S. C. , have yielded abundant clasts of humate-impregnated sand and sparse pieces of wood. Radiocarbon ages for the humate and wood provide sufficient control on the timing of the earthquakes that produced the sand blows to indicate that at least three prehistoric liquefaction-producing earthquakes (m//b approximately 5. 5 or larger) have occurred within the last 7,200 years. The youngest documented prehistoric earthquake occurred around 800 A. D. A few fractures filled with virtually unweathered sand, but no large sand blows, can be assigned confidently to the historic 1886 Charleston earthquake.

  3. Source Parameters for the 2015 Nepal Earthquake Revealed by InSAR Observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Yongsheng; Zhang, Jingfa; Li, Zhenhong

    2016-08-01

    On April 25 2015, an Mw7.8earthquake occurred in Nepal, which is the largest since the 1934 Bihar Earthquake. 2015 Nepal earthquake occurred in subduction thrust interface due to collision of Indian Plate and Eurasian Plate, which is the main seismogenic fault structure named Main Himalaya Thrust fault (MHT).The earthquake released a huge amount of energy, causing huge losses of people and infrastructure. Using a combination of ALOS-2 ScanSAR wide mode data and SENTINEL-1A Interferometric Wide Swath data, we constructed maps of what happened on and below Earth's surface during the Mw7.8 earthquake in Nepal.

  4. The 1992 Landers earthquake and surface faulting

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Rymer, Michael J.

    1992-01-01

    Faulting associated with the June 28, 992, earthquake near Landers, California, broke the surface of the ground over a length of more than 70 km, the longest surface rupture in the United States since the great San Francisco quake of 1906. the strongest shaking associated with this magnitude 7.6 (MS) earthquake, the largest in the contiguous 48 states in the last 40 years, occurred in a sparsely populated sections of the Mojave Desert more than 200 km east of Los Angeles. the earthquake began with a sudden slip on the Johnson Valley fault about 10 km southwest of Landers. The initial fault movement probably occurred at a depth of less than 10 km. Surface faulting then propagated over 70 km to the north and northeast. The faulting linked preexisting faults-some previously known and mapped and others previously unknown-into a complex, coherent rupture zone. 

  5. Somalian Earthquakes of May, 1980, East Africa

    SciTech Connect

    Ruegg, J.C.; Lepine, J.C.; Tarantola, A.; Leveque, J.J.

    1981-04-01

    A seismic crisis, with a m/sub b/ = 5.3 main shock, occured in the Somali Republic East Africa (10 /sup 0/N, 43 /sup 0/E) from April to November 1980. Up to 2000 earthquakes with M/sub L/>2 have been recorded during this period. This earthquake sequence is of particular interest because it occurred in a seismically inactive zone and include a rather long aftershock sequence. Two groups of epicenters were identified using a relative location procedure. Aftershocks observed during the first two weeks fall very close to the Borama City, while latter shocks are situated 10km west. This may suggest that the second group of earthquakes has been induced continental margin between the Somalian Plateau shield and the quasi-oceanic crust of the Afar-Gulf of Aden region, remains active to day and is relevant to intraplate seismicity.

  6. Amending and complicating Chile’s seismic catalog with the Santiago earthquake of 7 August 1580

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cisternas, Marco; Torrejón, Fernando; Gorigoitia, Nicolás

    2012-02-01

    Historical earthquakes of Chile's metropolitan region include a previously uncatalogued earthquake that occurred on 7 August 1580 in the Julian calendar. We found an authoritative account of this earthquake in a letter written four days later in Santiago and now archived in Spain. The letter tells of a destructive earthquake that struck Santiago and its environs. In its reported effects it surpassed the one in the same city in 1575, until now presumed to be the only earthquake in the first century of central Chile's written history. It is not yet possible to identify the source of the 1580 earthquake but viable candidates include both the plate boundary and Andean faults at shallows depths around Santiago. By occurring just five years after another large earthquake, the 1580 earthquake casts doubt on the completeness of the region's historical earthquake catalog and the periodicity of its large earthquakes. That catalog, based on eyewitness accounts compiled mainly by Alexander Perrey and Fernand Montessus de Ballore, tells of large Chile's metropolitan region earthquakes in 1575, 1647, 1730, 1822, 1906 and 1985. The addition of a large earthquake in 1580 implies greater variability in recurrence intervals and may also mean greater variety in earthquake sources.

  7. The 2011 Tohoku earthquake (Mw 9.0) sequence and subduction dynamics in Western Pacific and East Asia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhao, Dapeng

    2015-02-01

    We review recent findings on the causal mechanism of the great 2011 Tohoku earthquake (Mw 9.0) sequence and related issues on seismic structure and subduction dynamics in Western Pacific and East Asia. High-resolution tomography revealed significant lateral heterogeneities in the interplate megathrust zone beneath the Tohoku, South Kuril and Southwest Japan forearc regions. Large megathrust earthquakes since 1900 generally occurred in or around high-velocity (high-V) patches in the megathrust zone, which may reflect asperities resulting from subducted seamounts, oceanic ridges and other topographic highs on the Pacific seafloor. In contrast, low-velocity (low-V) patches in the megathrust zone may contain more sediments and fluids, where the subducting oceanic plate and the overlying continental plate are less coupled or even decoupled. The nucleation of large crustal earthquakes in the Japan Islands, including the 11 April 2011 Iwaki earthquake (M 7.0) in SE Tohoku, is affected by arc magma and fluids resulting from slab dehydration. The Philippine Sea plate has subducted aseismically down to 430-460 km depth under East China Sea, Tsushima Strait and Japan Sea. A window in the aseismic Philippine Sea slab is detected, which may be caused by splitting of weak parts of the slab at the subducted ridges (e.g., Kyushu-Paula ridge) and hot upwelling in the mantle wedge above the Pacific slab. The intraplate volcanism in Northeast Asia is caused by hot and wet upwelling flows in the big mantle wedge above the stagnant Pacific slab in the mantle transition zone. Frequent generation of large deep earthquakes (>500 km depth) in the Pacific slab may supply additional fluids preserved in the slab to the mantle wedge under the Changbai volcano, making Changbai the largest and most active intraplate volcano in Northeast Asia. Fluids may be involved in nucleation and rupture processes of all types of earthquakes.

  8. A prototype earthquake warning system for strike-slip earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nafi Toksöz, M.; Dainty, Anton M.; Bullitt, John T.

    1990-05-01

    A prototype expert system has been developed to provide rapid warning of earthquakes while they are occurring. Warning times of up to 100 seconds will be possible. In the complete system, several accelerometers are distributed at intervals within a few kilometers of a known fault; data are telemetered to a central computer which implements the expert system. The expert system incorporates specific information about the type of fault to be monitored, and includes simple rules for estimating the fault slip, rupture length, and seismic moment, all in real time. If the seismic moment exceeds a preset value, an alarm may be issued. The prototype is designed for deployment on near-surface strike-slip faults such as the San Andreas and has been successfully tested with data from the 1979 Imperial Valley and 1984 Morgan Hill earthquakes. Crucial concepts have also been tested using synthetic data calculated for a model of the 1857 Fort Tejon earthquake. Parkfield, California, could be used as a test site.

  9. Post-earthquake building safety assessments for the Canterbury Earthquakes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Marshall, J.; Barnes, J.; Gould, N.; Jaiswal, K.; Lizundia, B.; Swanson, David A.; Turner, F.

    2012-01-01

    This paper explores the post-earthquake building assessment program that was utilized in Christchurch, New Zealand following the Canterbury Sequence of earthquakes beginning with the Magnitude (Mw.) 7.1 Darfield event in September 2010. The aftershocks or triggered events, two of which exceeded Mw 6.0, continued with events in February and June 2011 causing the greatest amount of damage. More than 70,000 building safety assessments were completed following the February event. The timeline and assessment procedures will be discussed including the use of rapid response teams, selection of indicator buildings to monitor damage following aftershocks, risk assessments for demolition of red-tagged buildings, the use of task forces to address management of the heavily damaged downtown area and the process of demolition. Through the post-event safety assessment program that occurred throughout the Canterbury Sequence of earthquakes, many important lessons can be learned that will benefit future response to natural hazards that have potential to damage structures.

  10. Correlating precursory declines in groundwater radon with earthquake magnitude.

    PubMed

    Kuo, T

    2014-01-01

    Both studies at the Antung hot spring in eastern Taiwan and at the Paihe spring in southern Taiwan confirm that groundwater radon can be a consistent tracer for strain changes in the crust preceding an earthquake when observed in a low-porosity fractured aquifer surrounded by a ductile formation. Recurrent anomalous declines in groundwater radon were observed at the Antung D1 monitoring well in eastern Taiwan prior to the five earthquakes of magnitude (Mw ): 6.8, 6.1, 5.9, 5.4, and 5.0 that occurred on December 10, 2003; April 1, 2006; April 15, 2006; February 17, 2008; and July 12, 2011, respectively. For earthquakes occurring on the longitudinal valley fault in eastern Taiwan, the observed radon minima decrease as the earthquake magnitude increases. The above correlation has been proven to be useful for early warning local large earthquakes. In southern Taiwan, radon anomalous declines prior to the 2010 Mw 6.3 Jiasian, 2012 Mw 5.9 Wutai, and 2012 ML 5.4 Kaohsiung earthquakes were also recorded at the Paihe spring. For earthquakes occurring on different faults in southern Taiwan, the correlation between the observed radon minima and the earthquake magnitude is not yet possible.

  11. Prediction of earthquake-triggered landslide event sizes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Braun, Anika; Havenith, Hans-Balder; Schlögel, Romy

    2016-04-01

    Seismically induced landslides are a major environmental effect of earthquakes, which may significantly contribute to related losses. Moreover, in paleoseismology landslide event sizes are an important proxy for the estimation of the intensity and magnitude of past earthquakes and thus allowing us to improve seismic hazard assessment over longer terms. Not only earthquake intensity, but also factors such as the fault characteristics, topography, climatic conditions and the geological environment have a major impact on the intensity and spatial distribution of earthquake induced landslides. We present here a review of factors contributing to earthquake triggered slope failures based on an "event-by-event" classification approach. The objective of this analysis is to enable the short-term prediction of earthquake triggered landslide event sizes in terms of numbers and size of the affected area right after an earthquake event occurred. Five main factors, 'Intensity', 'Fault', 'Topographic energy', 'Climatic conditions' and 'Surface geology' were used to establish a relationship to the number and spatial extend of landslides triggered by an earthquake. The relative weight of these factors was extracted from published data for numerous past earthquakes; topographic inputs were checked in Google Earth and through geographic information systems. Based on well-documented recent earthquakes (e.g. Haiti 2010, Wenchuan 2008) and on older events for which reliable extensive information was available (e.g. Northridge 1994, Loma Prieta 1989, Guatemala 1976, Peru 1970) the combination and relative weight of the factors was calibrated. The calibrated factor combination was then applied to more than 20 earthquake events for which landslide distribution characteristics could be cross-checked. One of our main findings is that the 'Fault' factor, which is based on characteristics of the fault, the surface rupture and its location with respect to mountain areas, has the most important

  12. Modified-Fibonacci-Dual-Lucas method for earthquake prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boucouvalas, A. C.; Gkasios, M.; Tselikas, N. T.; Drakatos, G.

    2015-06-01

    The FDL method makes use of Fibonacci, Dual and Lucas numbers and has shown considerable success in predicting earthquake events locally as well as globally. Predicting the location of the epicenter of an earthquake is one difficult challenge the other being the timing and magnitude. One technique for predicting the onset of earthquakes is the use of cycles, and the discovery of periodicity. Part of this category is the reported FDL method. The basis of the reported FDL method is the creation of FDL future dates based on the onset date of significant earthquakes. The assumption being that each occurred earthquake discontinuity can be thought of as a generating source of FDL time series The connection between past earthquakes and future earthquakes based on FDL numbers has also been reported with sample earthquakes since 1900. Using clustering methods it has been shown that significant earthquakes (<6.5R) can be predicted with very good accuracy window (+-1 day). In this contribution we present an improvement modification to the FDL method, the MFDL method, which performs better than the FDL. We use the FDL numbers to develop possible earthquakes dates but with the important difference that the starting seed date is a trigger planetary aspect prior to the earthquake. Typical planetary aspects are Moon conjunct Sun, Moon opposite Sun, Moon conjunct or opposite North or South Modes. In order to test improvement of the method we used all +8R earthquakes recorded since 1900, (86 earthquakes from USGS data). We have developed the FDL numbers for each of those seeds, and examined the earthquake hit rates (for a window of 3, i.e. +-1 day of target date) and for <6.5R. The successes are counted for each one of the 86 earthquake seeds and we compare the MFDL method with the FDL method. In every case we find improvement when the starting seed date is on the planetary trigger date prior to the earthquake. We observe no improvement only when a planetary trigger coincided with

  13. Response of sensitive behaviors to frequent measurement.

    PubMed

    Axinn, William G; Jennings, Elyse A; Couper, Mick P

    2015-01-01

    We study the influence of frequent survey measurement on behavior. Widespread access to the Internet has made important breakthroughs in frequent measurement possible-potentially revolutionizing social science measurement of processes that change quickly over time. One key concern about using such frequent measurement is that it may influence the behavior being studied. We investigate this possibility using both a population-based experiment with random assignment to participation in a weekly journal for twelve months (versus no journal) and a large-scale, population-based, journal-keeping study with weekly measurement for 30 months. Results reveal few of the measured behaviors are correlated with assignment to frequent measurement. Theoretical reasoning regarding the likely behavioral response to frequent measurement correctly predicts domains most vulnerable to this possibility. Overall, however, we found little evidence of behavioral response to frequent measurement.

  14. Response of Sensitive Behaviors to Frequent Measurement

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    We study the influence of frequent survey measurement on behavior. Widespread access to the Internet has made important breakthroughs in frequent measurement possible—potentially revolutionizing social science measurement of processes that change quickly over time. One key concern about using such frequent measurement is that it may influence the behavior being studied. We investigate this possibility using both a population-based experiment with random assignment to participation in a weekly journal for twelve months (versus no journal) and a large scale population-based journal-keeping study with weekly measurement for 30 months. Results reveal few of the measured behaviors are correlated with assignment to frequent measurement. Theoretical reasoning regarding the likely behavioral response to frequent measurement correctly predicts domains most vulnerable to this possibility. Overall, however, we found little evidence of behavioral response to frequent measurement. PMID:25432599

  15. Mexican Earthquakes and Tsunamis Catalog Reviewed

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ramirez-Herrera, M. T.; Castillo-Aja, R.

    2015-12-01

    Today the availability of information on the internet makes online catalogs very easy to access by both scholars and the public in general. The catalog in the "Significant Earthquake Database", managed by the National Center for Environmental Information (NCEI formerly NCDC), NOAA, allows access by deploying tabular and cartographic data related to earthquakes and tsunamis contained in the database. The NCEI catalog is the product of compiling previously existing catalogs, historical sources, newspapers, and scientific articles. Because NCEI catalog has a global coverage the information is not homogeneous. Existence of historical information depends on the presence of people in places where the disaster occurred, and that the permanence of the description is preserved in documents and oral tradition. In the case of instrumental data, their availability depends on the distribution and quality of seismic stations. Therefore, the availability of information for the first half of 20th century can be improved by careful analysis of the available information and by searching and resolving inconsistencies. This study shows the advances we made in upgrading and refining data for the earthquake and tsunami catalog of Mexico since 1500 CE until today, presented in the format of table and map. Data analysis allowed us to identify the following sources of error in the location of the epicenters in existing catalogs: • Incorrect coordinate entry • Place name erroneous or mistaken • Too general data that makes difficult to locate the epicenter, mainly for older earthquakes • Inconsistency of earthquakes and the tsunami occurrence: earthquake's epicenter located too far inland reported as tsunamigenic. The process of completing the catalogs directly depends on the availability of information; as new archives are opened for inspection, there are more opportunities to complete the history of large earthquakes and tsunamis in Mexico. Here, we also present new earthquake and

  16. Tremor, remote triggering and earthquake cycle

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Peng, Z.

    2012-12-01

    Deep tectonic tremor and episodic slow-slip events have been observed at major plate-boundary faults around the Pacific Rim. These events have much longer source durations than regular earthquakes, and are generally located near or below the seismogenic zone where regular earthquakes occur. Tremor and slow-slip events appear to be extremely stress sensitive, and could be instantaneously triggered by distant earthquakes and solid earth tides. However, many important questions remain open. For example, it is still not clear what are the necessary conditions for tremor generation, and how remote triggering could affect large earthquake cycle. Here I report a global search of tremor triggered by recent large teleseismic earthquakes. We mainly focus on major subduction zones around the Pacific Rim. These include the southwest and northeast Japan subduction zones, the Hikurangi subduction zone in New Zealand, the Cascadia subduction zone, and the major subduction zones in Central and South America. In addition, we examine major strike-slip faults around the Caribbean plate, the Queen Charlotte fault in northern Pacific Northwest Coast, and the San Andreas fault system in California. In each place, we first identify triggered tremor as a high-frequency non-impulsive signal that is in phase with the large-amplitude teleseismic waves. We also calculate the dynamic stress and check the triggering relationship with the Love and Rayleigh waves. Finally, we calculate the triggering potential with the local fault orientation and surface-wave incident angles. Our results suggest that tremor exists at many plate-boundary faults in different tectonic environments, and could be triggered by dynamic stress as low as a few kPas. In addition, we summarize recent observations of slow-slip events and earthquake swarms triggered by large distant earthquakes. Finally, we propose several mechanisms that could explain apparent clustering of large earthquakes around the world.

  17. Tsunami history of an Oregon coastal lake reveals a 4600 yr record of great earthquakes on the Cascadia subduction zone

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kelsey, H.M.; Nelson, A.R.; Hemphill-Haley, E.; Witter, R.C.

    2005-01-01

    Bradley Lake, on the southern Oregon coastal plain, records local tsunamis and seismic shaking on the Cascadia subduction zone over the last 7000 yr. Thirteen marine incursions delivered landward-thinning sheets of sand to the lake from nearshore, beach, and dune environments to the west. Following each incursion, a slug of marine water near the bottom of the freshwater lake instigated a few-year-to-several-decade period of a brackish (??? 4??? salinity) lake. Four additional disturbances without marine incursions destabilized sideslopes and bottom sediment, producing a suspension deposit that blanketed the lake bottom. Considering the magnitude and duration of the disturbances necessary to produce Bradley Lake's marine incursions, a local tsunami generated by a great earthquake on the Cascadia subduction zone is the only accountable mechanism. Extreme ocean levels must have been at least 5-8 m above sea level, and the cumulative duration of each marine incursion must have been at least 10 min. Disturbances without marine incursions require seismic shaking as well. Over the 4600 yr period when Bradley Lake was an optimum tsunami recorder, tsunamis from Cascadia plate-boundary earthquakes came in clusters. Between 4600 and 2800 cal yr B.P., tsunamis occurred at the average frequency of ??? 3-4 every 1000 yr. Then, starting ???2800 cal yr B.P., there was a 930-1260 yr interval with no tsunamis. That gap was followed by a ???1000 yr period with 4 tsunamis. In the last millennium, a 670-750 yr gap preceded the A.D. 1700 earthquake and tsunami. The A.D. 1700 earthquake may be the first of a new cluster of plate-boundary earthquakes and accompanying tsunamis. Local tsunamis entered Bradley Lake an average of every 390 yr, whereas the portion of the Cascadia plate boundary that underlies Bradley Lake ruptured in a great earthquake less frequently, about once every 500 yr. Therefore, the entire length of the subduction zone does not rupture in every earthquake, and Bradley

  18. Earthquake casualty models within the USGS Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Jaiswal, Kishor; Wald, David J.; Earle, Paul S.; Porter, Keith A.; Hearne, Mike

    2011-01-01

    Since the launch of the USGS’s Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system in fall of 2007, the time needed for the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to determine and comprehend the scope of any major earthquake disaster anywhere in the world has been dramatically reduced to less than 30 min. PAGER alerts consist of estimated shaking hazard from the ShakeMap system, estimates of population exposure at various shaking intensities, and a list of the most severely shaken cities in the epicentral area. These estimates help government, scientific, and relief agencies to guide their responses in the immediate aftermath of a significant earthquake. To account for wide variability and uncertainty associated with inventory, structural vulnerability and casualty data, PAGER employs three different global earthquake fatality/loss computation models. This article describes the development of the models and demonstrates the loss estimation capability for earthquakes that have occurred since 2007. The empirical model relies on country-specific earthquake loss data from past earthquakes and makes use of calibrated casualty rates for future prediction. The semi-empirical and analytical models are engineering-based and rely on complex datasets including building inventories, time-dependent population distributions within different occupancies, the vulnerability of regional building stocks, and casualty rates given structural collapse.

  19. The 16 May 1909 northern Great Plains earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bakun, W.H.; Stickney, M.C.; Rogers, Gary C.

    2011-01-01

    The largest historical earthquake in the northern Great Plains occurred on 16 May 1909. Our analysis of intensity assignments places the earthquake location (48.81° N, 105.38° W) close to the Montana–Saskatchewan border with an intensity magnitude MI of 5.3–5.4. Observations from two seismic observatories in Europe give an average Ms value of 5.3. The 1909 earthquake is near an alignment of epicenters of small earthquakes in Montana and Saskatchewan and on strike with the mapped Hinsdale fault in Montana. Thus, the 1909 earthquake may have occurred on a 300-km-long seismically active fault, which could have seismic-hazard implications for the region, particularly for the hydraulically emplaced earth-filled Fort Peck Dam, constructed in the 1930s on the Missouri River in northeast Montana.

  20. Application of maximum entropy method for earthquake signatures using GPSTEC

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Revathi, R.; Lakshminarayana, S.; Koteswara Rao, S.; Ramesh, K. S.; Uday Kiran, K.

    2016-04-01

    Spectral analysis of ionospheric disturbances of seismic origin will aid for the detection and prediction of the unavoidable natural disasters like Earthquakes. These disturbances for an earthquake occurred in Kawalu, West Java Indonesia with a magnitude of 4.3 on Richter scale was analyzed. The earthquake has occurred on 12th December 2013 at 7:02 hours universal time coordinate i.e at 12:32 hours local time coordinate. Maximum entropy method was applied on the ionopsheric disturbances seen on the earthquake day. The enhancement in the energy of the ionosphere has a high value at the beginning. It had a slow initial decrement and then a rapid fall down is observed. The method may profoundly represent the effect impending earthquake.

  1. Relationship between marine mammal stranding events and offshore earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grant, Rachel; Savirina, Anna; Hoppit, Will

    2014-05-01

    The causes of marine mammal stranding events are largely unknown, but may relate to ocean currents, severe weather, anthropogenic noise pollution, and other factors. Large stranding events have been suggested to occur as a result of offshore earthquakes but there is little evidence as yet to support this hypothesis. Stranding events occur in hotspots, which are sometimes areas of high seismic activity, such as Taiwan, and other times, in areas that are removed from seismic zones, such as Cape Cod. We analyse a large and robust dataset of marine mammal stranding data collected off the coast of Washington and Oregon from 1999 to 2010, to look for statistical connections to offshore earthquakes. We looked forward, as well as backward in time from significant seismic events, to ascertain whether stranding occurrences, if connected to earthquakes, are a result of the earthquake preparation period or the earthquake itself. Possible mechanisms are discussed.

  2. Detection of Temporally and Spatially Limited Periodic Earthquake Recurrence in Synthetic Seismic Records

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zielke, O.; Arrowsmith, R. J.

    2005-12-01

    noticeable periodicity during certain intervals in an otherwise aperiodic record. The observed periodic signal is not equally distributed over the range of offsets but shows a multi-modal distribution with increased periodicity for the smallest events and for large events that show a specific offset. These large events also form a shoulder in the frequency-size distribution. Apparently, the model exhibits characteristic earthquakes (defined by similar coseismic slip) that occur more frequently than expected from a power law distribution, and also are significantly more periodic. The wavelength of the periodic signal generally equals the minimum loading time, which is related to the loading velocity and the amount of coseismic slip (i.e., stress drop). No significant event occurs between the characteristic events as long as the system stays in a window of periodic behavior. Within the windows of periodic behavior, earthquake prediction is straightforward. Therefore, recognition of these windows not only in synthetic data but also in real seismic records, may improve the intra-window forecast of earthquakes. Further studies will attempt to determine the characteristics of onset, duration, and end of these windows of periodic earthquake recurrence. Only the motion of a single block within a bigger system was analyzed so far. Going from a zero dimensional scenario to a two dimensional case where the offsets not only of a single block but the displacement patterns caused by a certain event are analyzed will increase the verisimilitude of the detection of periodic earthquake recurrence within an otherwise chaotic seismic record.

  3. Napa earthquake: An earthquake in a highly connected world

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bossu, R.; Steed, R.; Mazet-Roux, G.; Roussel, F.

    2014-12-01

    The Napa earthquake recently occurred close to Silicon Valley. This makes it a good candidate to study what social networks, wearable objects and website traffic analysis (flashsourcing) can tell us about the way eyewitnesses react to ground shaking. In the first part, we compare the ratio of people publishing tweets and with the ratio of people visiting EMSC (European Mediterranean Seismological Centre) real time information website in the first minutes following the earthquake occurrence to the results published by Jawbone, which show that the proportion of people waking up depends (naturally) on the epicentral distance. The key question to evaluate is whether the proportions of inhabitants tweeting or visiting the EMSC website are similar to the proportion of people waking up as shown by the Jawbone data. If so, this supports the premise that all methods provide a reliable image of the relative ratio of people waking up. The second part of the study focuses on the reaction time for both Twitter and EMSC website access. We show, similarly to what was demonstrated for the Mineral, Virginia, earthquake (Bossu et al., 2014), that hit times on the EMSC website follow the propagation of the P waves and that 2 minutes of website traffic is sufficient to determine the epicentral location of an earthquake on the other side of the Atlantic. We also compare with the publication time of messages on Twitter. Finally, we check whether the number of tweets and the number of visitors relative to the number of inhabitants is correlated to the local level of shaking. Together these results will tell us whether the reaction of eyewitnesses to ground shaking as observed through Twitter and the EMSC website analysis is tool specific (i.e. specific to Twitter or EMSC website) or whether they do reflect people's actual reactions.

  4. OMG Earthquake! Can Twitter improve earthquake response?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Earle, P. S.; Guy, M.; Ostrum, C.; Horvath, S.; Buckmaster, R. A.

    2009-12-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is investigating how the social networking site Twitter, a popular service for sending and receiving short, public, text messages, can augment its earthquake response products and the delivery of hazard information. The goal is to gather near real-time, earthquake-related messages (tweets) and provide geo-located earthquake detections and rough maps of the corresponding felt areas. Twitter and other social Internet technologies are providing the general public with anecdotal earthquake hazard information before scientific information has been published from authoritative sources. People local to an event often publish information within seconds via these technologies. In contrast, depending on the location of the earthquake, scientific alerts take between 2 to 20 minutes. Examining the tweets following the March 30, 2009, M4.3 Morgan Hill earthquake shows it is possible (in some cases) to rapidly detect and map the felt area of an earthquake using Twitter responses. Within a minute of the earthquake, the frequency of “earthquake” tweets rose above the background level of less than 1 per hour to about 150 per minute. Using the tweets submitted in the first minute, a rough map of the felt area can be obtained by plotting the tweet locations. Mapping the tweets from the first six minutes shows observations extending from Monterey to Sacramento, similar to the perceived shaking region mapped by the USGS “Did You Feel It” system. The tweets submitted after the earthquake also provided (very) short first-impression narratives from people who experienced the shaking. Accurately assessing the potential and robustness of a Twitter-based system is difficult because only tweets spanning the previous seven days can be searched, making a historical study impossible. We have, however, been archiving tweets for several months, and it is clear that significant limitations do exist. The main drawback is the lack of quantitative information

  5. Intermediate- and long-term earthquake prediction.

    PubMed Central

    Sykes, L R

    1996-01-01

    Progress in long- and intermediate-term earthquake prediction is reviewed emphasizing results from California. Earthquake prediction as a scientific discipline is still in its infancy. Probabilistic estimates that segments of several faults in California will be the sites of large shocks in the next 30 years are now generally accepted and widely used. Several examples are presented of changes in rates of moderate-size earthquakes and seismic moment release on time scales of a few to 30 years that occurred prior to large shocks. A distinction is made between large earthquakes that rupture the entire downdip width of the outer brittle part of the earth's crust and small shocks that do not. Large events occur quasi-periodically in time along a fault segment and happen much more often than predicted from the rates of small shocks along that segment. I am moderately optimistic about improving predictions of large events for time scales of a few to 30 years although little work of that type is currently underway in the United States. Precursory effects, like the changes in stress they reflect, should be examined from a tensorial rather than a scalar perspective. A broad pattern of increased numbers of moderate-size shocks in southern California since 1986 resembles the pattern in the 25 years before the great 1906 earthquake. Since it may be a long-term precursor to a great event on the southern San Andreas fault, that area deserves detailed intensified study. Images Fig. 1 PMID:11607658

  6. Intermediate- and long-term earthquake prediction.

    PubMed

    Sykes, L R

    1996-04-30

    Progress in long- and intermediate-term earthquake prediction is reviewed emphasizing results from California. Earthquake prediction as a scientific discipline is still in its infancy. Probabilistic estimates that segments of several faults in California will be the sites of large shocks in the next 30 years are now generally accepted and widely used. Several examples are presented of changes in rates of moderate-size earthquakes and seismic moment release on time scales of a few to 30 years that occurred prior to large shocks. A distinction is made between large earthquakes that rupture the entire downdip width of the outer brittle part of the earth's crust and small shocks that do not. Large events occur quasi-periodically in time along a fault segment and happen much more often than predicted from the rates of small shocks along that segment. I am moderately optimistic about improving predictions of large events for time scales of a few to 30 years although little work of that type is currently underway in the United States. Precursory effects, like the changes in stress they reflect, should be examined from a tensorial rather than a scalar perspective. A broad pattern of increased numbers of moderate-size shocks in southern California since 1986 resembles the pattern in the 25 years before the great 1906 earthquake. Since it may be a long-term precursor to a great event on the southern San Andreas fault, that area deserves detailed intensified study.

  7. Retrospective stress-forecasting of earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gao, Yuan; Crampin, Stuart

    2015-04-01

    Observations of changes in azimuthally varying shear-wave splitting (SWS) above swarms of small earthquakes monitor stress-induced changes to the stress-aligned vertical microcracks pervading the upper crust, lower crust, and uppermost ~400km of the mantle. (The microcracks are intergranular films of hydrolysed melt in the mantle.) Earthquakes release stress, and an appropriate amount of stress for the relevant magnitude must accumulate before each event. Iceland is on an extension of the Mid-Atlantic Ridge, where two transform zones, uniquely run onshore. These onshore transform zones provide semi-continuous swarms of small earthquakes, which are the only place worldwide where SWS can be routinely monitored. Elsewhere SWS must be monitored above temporally-active occasional swarms of small earthquakes, or in infrequent SKS and other teleseismic reflections from the mantle. Observations of changes in SWS time-delays are attributed to stress-induced changes in crack aspect-ratios allowing stress-accumulation and stress-relaxation to be identified. Monitoring SWS in SW Iceland in 1988, stress-accumulation before an impending earthquake was recognised and emails were exchanged between the University of Edinburgh (EU) and the Iceland Meteorological Office (IMO). On 10th November 1988, EU emailed IMO that a M5 earthquake could occur soon on a seismically-active fault plane where seismicity was still continuing following a M5.1 earthquake six-months earlier. Three-days later, IMO emailed EU that a M5 earthquake had just occurred on the specified fault-plane. We suggest this is a successful earthquake stress-forecast, where we refer to the procedure as stress-forecasting earthquakes as opposed to predicting or forecasting to emphasise the different formalism. Lack of funds has prevented us monitoring SWS on Iceland seismograms, however, we have identified similar characteristic behaviour of SWS time-delays above swarms of small earthquakes which have enabled us to

  8. Reported geomagnetic and ionospheric precursors to earthquakes: Summary, reanalysis, and implications for short-term prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thomas, J. N.; Masci, F.; Love, J. J.; Johnston, M. J.

    2012-12-01

    Earthquakes are one of the most devastating natural phenomena on earth, causing high deaths tolls and large financial losses each year. If precursory signals could be regularly and reliably identified, then the hazardous effects of earthquakes might be mitigated. Unfortunately, it is not at all clear that short-term earthquake prediction is either possible or practical, and the entire subject remains controversial. Still, many claims of successful earthquake precursor observations have been published, and among these are reports of geomagnetic and ionospheric anomalies prior to earthquake occurrence. Given the importance of earthquake prediction, reports of earthquake precursors need to be analyzed and checked for reliability and reproducibility. We have done this for numerous such reports, including the Loma Prieta, Guam, Hector Mine, Tohoku, and L'Aquila earthquakes. We have found that these reported earthquake precursors: 1) often lack time series observations from long before and long after the earthquakes and near and far from the earthquakes, 2) are not statistically correlated with the earthquakes and do not relate to the earthquake source mechanisms, 3) are not followed by similar, but much larger, signals during the subsequent earthquake when the primary energy release occurs, 4) are nonuniform in that they occur at different spatial and temporal regimes relative to the earthquakes and with different magnitudes and frequencies, and 5) can often be explained by other non-earthquake related mechanisms or normal geomagnetic activity. Thus we conclude that these reported precursors could not be used to predict the time or location of the earthquakes. Based on our findings, we suggest a protocol for examining precursory reports, something that will help guide future research in this area.

  9. A fluid-driven earthquake swarm on the margin of the Yellowstone caldera

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Shelly, David R.; Hill, David P.; Massin, Frederick; Farrell, Jamie; Smith, Robert B.; Taira, Taka'aki

    2013-01-01

    Over the past several decades, the Yellowstone caldera has experienced frequent earthquake swarms and repeated cycles of uplift and subsidence, reflecting dynamic volcanic and tectonic processes. Here, we examine the detailed spatial-temporal evolution of the 2010 Madison Plateau swarm, which occurred near the northwest boundary of the Yellowstone caldera. To fully explore the evolution of the swarm, we integrated procedures for seismic waveform-based earthquake detection with precise double-difference relative relocation. Using cross-correlation of continuous seismic data and waveform templates constructed from cataloged events, we detected and precisely located 8710 earthquakes during the three-week swarm, nearly four times the number of events included in the standard catalog. This high-resolution analysis reveals distinct migration of earthquake activity over the course of the swarm. The swarm initiated abruptly on January 17, 2010 at about 10 km depth and expanded dramatically outward (both shallower and deeper) over time, primarily along a NNW-striking, ~55º ENE-dipping structure. To explain these characteristics, we hypothesize that the swarm was triggered by the rupture of a zone of confined high-pressure aqueous fluids into a pre-existing crustal fault system, prompting release of accumulated stress. The high-pressure fluid injection may have been accommodated by hybrid shear and dilatational failure, as is commonly observed in exhumed hydrothermally affected fault zones. This process has likely occurred repeatedly in Yellowstone as aqueous fluids exsolved from magma migrate into the brittle crust, and it may be a key element in the observed cycles of caldera uplift and subsidence.

  10. Insight into several compound earthquakes: A method to recognize multiple-point source earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nie, S.; Wang, Y.; Ni, S.

    2013-12-01

    Source parameter of earthquakes is essential problem in seismology. Accurate and timely determination of the earthquake parameters (such as moment, depth, strike, dip and rake of fault planes) is significant for both the rupture dynamics and ground motion prediction or simulation. And the rupture process study, especially for the moderate and large earthquakes, is essential as the more detailed kinematic study has became the routine work of seismologists. Evidence is presented which suggest that the Dec 9 2003, Virginia earthquake may have been a double event that occurred on probably two separate, subparallel thrust faults. In reference to current research work, some hypothesized conditions for this earthquake are controversial. For example, events which occurred different subparallel fault planes may have totally distinct focal mechanisms instead of similar ones as brought up in previous work. The studying of this earthquake including the source parameter determination of each sub-event will be helpful to the understanding of earthquake dynamics. However, mixed up seismic signals of two distinctive sources will definitely increase difficulty of inversion. As to common events, the method(Cut and Paste) has been proven effective for resolving source parameters, which jointly use body wave and surface wave with independent time shift and weights. CAP could resolve fault orientation and focal depth using grid search algorithm. We utilize novel computational platform, GPU, when simultaneously inversing source properties of all individual sub-events, in order to accelerate speed. We tried to verify its validation and accuracy by artificial compound earthquakes and good performance has been obtained. Each single parameter of sub-event can be recovered well. Further verification has been done by inversing artificially mixed up genuine events which occurred Nov.5 and 9, 2011 in Oklahoma State. In the end, we attempted to deal with complexity of teleseismic events. Under

  11. Earthquake history of Texas

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    von Hake, C. A.

    1977-01-01

    Seventeen earthquakes, intensity V or greater, have centered in Texas since 1882, when the first shock was reported. The strongest earthquake, a maximum intensity VIII, was in western Texas in 1931 and was felt over 1 165 000 km 2. Three shocks in the Panhandle region in 1925, 1936, and 1943 were widely felt. 

  12. Earthquake research in China

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Raleigh, B.

    1977-01-01

    The prediction of the Haicheng earthquake was an extraordinary achievement by the geophysical workers of the People's Republic of China, whose national program in earthquake reserach was less than 10 years old at the time. To study the background to this prediction, a delgation of 10 U.S scientists, which I led, visited China in June 1976. 

  13. Earthquakes: Risk, Detection, Warning, and Research

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2010-01-14

    new ground motion models for the offshore Cascadia subduction zone . In formulating the 2008 maps, the USGS gave more weight to the probability of a...catastrophic magnitude 9 earthquake occurring along the Cascadia subduction zone . The Cascadia subduction zone fault ruptures, on average, every 500...14 The New Madrid Seismic Zone ........................................................................................... 15 Monitoring

  14. Protecting Your Family From Earthquakes-The Seven Steps to Earthquake Safety (in Spanish and English)

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Developed by American Red Cross, Asian Pacific Fund

    2007-01-01

    This book is provided here to share an important message on emergency preparedness. Historically, we have suffered earthquakes here in the San Francisco Bay Area that have caused severe hardship for residents and incredible damage to our cities. It is likely we will experience a severe earthquake within the next 30 years. Many of us come from other countries where we have experienced earth- quakes, so we believe that we understand them. However, the way we prepare for earthquakes in our home country may be different from the way it is necessary to prepare for earthquakes here. Very f w people die from collapsing buildings in the Bay Area because most structures are built to stand up to the shaking. But it is quite possible that your family will be without medical care or grocery stores and separated from one another for several days to weeks. It will ultimately be up to you to keep your family safe until help arrives, so we are asking you to join us in learning to take care of your family before, during, and after an earthquake. The first step is to read this book. Everyone in your family, children and adults, can learn how to prepare for an earthquake. Then take advantage of the American Red Cross Earthquake Preparedness training courses offered in your community. These preparedness courses are free, and also offered in Spanish and available to everyone in the community regardless of family history, leg al status, gender, or age. We encourage you to take one of these free training workshops. Look on the back cover for more information. Remember that an earthquake can occur without warning, and the only way that we can reduce the harm caused by earthquakes is to be prepared. Get Prepared!

  15. Earthquake history of Mississippi

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    von Hake, C. A.

    1974-01-01

    Since its admission into the Union in 1817, Mississippi has had only four earthquakes of intensity V or greater within its borders. Although the number of earthquakes known to have been centered within Mississippi's boundaries is small, the State has been affected by numerous shocks located in neighboring States. In 1811 and 1812, a series of great earthquakes near the New Madrid Missouri area was felt in Mississippi as far south as the gulf coast. The New Madrid series caused the banks of the Mississippi River to cave in as far as Vicksburg, mroe than 300 miles from the epicentral region. As a result of this great earthquake series, the northwest corner of Mississippi is in seismic risk zone 3, the highest risk zone. Expect for the new Madrid series, effects in Mississippi from earthquakes located outside of the State have been less than intensity V. 

  16. Demand surge following earthquakes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Olsen, Anna H.

    2012-01-01

    Demand surge is understood to be a socio-economic phenomenon where repair costs for the same damage are higher after large- versus small-scale natural disasters. It has reportedly increased monetary losses by 20 to 50%. In previous work, a model for the increased costs of reconstruction labor and materials was developed for hurricanes in the Southeast United States. The model showed that labor cost increases, rather than the material component, drove the total repair cost increases, and this finding could be extended to earthquakes. A study of past large-scale disasters suggested that there may be additional explanations for demand surge. Two such explanations specific to earthquakes are the exclusion of insurance coverage for earthquake damage and possible concurrent causation of damage from an earthquake followed by fire or tsunami. Additional research into these aspects might provide a better explanation for increased monetary losses after large- vs. small-scale earthquakes.

  17. The Scotts Mills, Oregon earthquake on March 25, 1993

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wong, Ivan; Hemphill-Haley, Mark; Salah-Mars-Woodward-Clyde, Said

    1993-01-01

    At 5:34 a.m. on March 25, 1993, much of northwestern Oregon and southwestern Washington was shaken by one if the largest historic earthquakes ever observed in the region. The Richter magnitude 5.6 earthquake occurred near the small town of Scotts Mills, 48 km south of Portland, Oregon. The March 25 earthquake was felt over a large part of the Pacific Northwest extending from Seattle, Washington, in the north to the town of Roseburg in southern Oregon. Due in large part to the moderate size of the event and its location in a rural setting, only minor injuries occurred, principally from falling objects and broken glass.

  18. Evidence for external forcing temporal clustering of great earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khachikyan, Galina; Zhumabayev, Beibit; Toyshiev, Nursultan; Kairatkyzy, Dina; Kaldybayev, Azamat; Nurakynov, Serik

    2016-04-01

    It is shown by Bufe and Perkins [2005, BSSA, doi:10.1785/0120040110] and Shearera and Stark [2012, PNAS, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1118525109] that clustering of great earthquakes in 1950-1965 and 2004-2011 years is highly significant, with a 0.5% probability of random occurrence. Lutikov and Rogozhin [2014, Physics of the Solid Earth] reported on a similar clustering in the end of 19th - beginning of 20ty centuries as well, when strongest earthquakes occurred in Tien Shan (1889, M=8.3; and 1911, M=8.2); Alaska (1899, M=8.0); Kashgaria (1902, M=8.2); Mongolia (1905, M=8.2); San Francisco (1906, M=8.3), China(1906, M=8.3); Columbia (1906, M=8.6). Shearera and Stark [2012] have found that clustering of great earthquakes is analogous to seismic swarms that occur for a limited time. Simultaneously, they mentioned that at present no physical mechanism has been proposed to explain possible global seismicity swarms. Our results suggest that a mechanism responsible for temporal clustering of great earthquakes could be an external one related to the processes in the whole solar system including the Sun. We pay attention that the three marked periods of great earthquake clustering are related closely to the extreme phases of the recent Solar Centennial Gleissberg Cycle, which minimums occurred around of 1913 and 2008 years, and maximum - around of 1960 year. In particular, the great earthquake clustering in 1950-1965 coincides closely with the extremely high 19th eleven year solar cycle lasting from February 1954 to October 1964, while a great earthquake clustering after 2004 year coincides closely with the recent prolonged solar minimum developing after 2000 year. Also, we demonstrate that depending on the structure and composition of the lithosphere, strongest earthquakes may prefer to occur either in high or low solar activity. In particular, data analysis for 32 strongest (M=>7.0) earthquakes occurred in 1973-2014 years in the orogeny region of Eurasia, restricted by coordinates

  19. Real-time forecasts of tomorrow's earthquakes in California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gerstenberger, M.C.; Wiemer, S.; Jones, L.M.; Reasenberg, P.A.

    2005-01-01

    Despite a lack of reliable deterministic earthquake precursors, seismologists have significant predictive information about earthquake activity from an increasingly accurate understanding of the clustering properties of earthquakes. In the past 15 years, time-dependent earthquake probabilities based on a generic short-term clustering model have been made publicly available in near-real time during major earthquake sequences. These forecasts describe the probability and number of events that are, on average, likely to occur following a mainshock of a given magnitude, but are not tailored to the particular sequence at hand and contain no information about the likely locations of the aftershocks. Our model builds upon the basic principles of this generic forecast model in two ways: it recasts the forecast in terms of the probability of strong ground shaking, and it combines an existing time-independent earthquake occurrence model based on fault data and historical earthquakes with increasingly complex models describing the local time-dependent earthquake clustering. The result is a time-dependent map showing the probability of strong shaking anywhere in California within the next 24 hours. The seismic hazard modelling approach we describe provides a better understanding of time-dependent earthquake hazard, and increases its usefulness for the public, emergency planners and the media.

  20. Earthquakes and fault creep on the northern San Andreas fault

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Nason, R.

    1979-01-01

    At present there is an absence of both fault creep and small earthquakes on the northern San Andreas fault, which had a magnitude 8 earthquake with 5 m of slip in 1906. The fault has apparently been dormant after the 1906 earthquake. One possibility is that the fault is 'locked' in some way and only produces great earthquakes. An alternative possibility, presented here, is that the lack of current activity on the northern San Andreas fault is because of a lack of sufficient elastic strain after the 1906 earthquake. This is indicated by geodetic measurements at Fort Ross in 1874, 1906 (post-earthquake), and 1969, which show that the strain accumulation in 1969 (69 ?? 10-6 engineering strain) was only about one-third of the strain release (rebound) in the 1906 earthquake (200 ?? 10-6 engineering strain). The large difference in seismicity before and after 1906, with many strong local earthquakes from 1836 to 1906, but only a few strong earthquakes from 1906 to 1976, also indicates a difference of elastic strain. The geologic characteristics (serpentine, fault straightness) of most of the northern San Andreas fault are very similar to the characteristics of the fault south of Hollister, where fault creep is occurring. Thus, the current absence of fault creep on the northern fault segment is probably due to a lack of sufficient elastic strain at the present time. ?? 1979.

  1. Applicability of source scaling relations for crustal earthquakes to estimation of the ground motions of the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Irikura, Kojiro; Miyakoshi, Ken; Kamae, Katsuhiro; Yoshida, Kunikazu; Somei, Kazuhiro; Kurahashi, Susumu; Miyake, Hiroe

    2017-01-01

    A two-stage scaling relationship of the source parameters for crustal earthquakes in Japan has previously been constructed, in which source parameters obtained from the results of waveform inversion of strong motion data are combined with parameters estimated based on geological and geomorphological surveys. A three-stage scaling relationship was subsequently developed to extend scaling to crustal earthquakes with magnitudes greater than M w 7.4. The effectiveness of these scaling relationships was then examined based on the results of waveform inversion of 18 recent crustal earthquakes ( M w 5.4-6.9) that occurred in Japan since the 1995 Hyogo-ken Nanbu earthquake. The 2016 Kumamoto earthquake, with M w 7.0, was one of the largest earthquakes to occur since dense and accurate strong motion observation networks, such as K-NET and KiK-net, were deployed after the 1995 Hyogo-ken Nanbu earthquake. We examined the applicability of the scaling relationships of the source parameters of crustal earthquakes in Japan to the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake. The rupture area and asperity area were determined based on slip distributions obtained from waveform inversion of the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake observations. We found that the relationship between the rupture area and the seismic moment for the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake follows the second-stage scaling within one standard deviation ( σ = 0.14). The ratio of the asperity area to the rupture area for the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake is nearly the same as ratios previously obtained for crustal earthquakes. Furthermore, we simulated the ground motions of this earthquake using a characterized source model consisting of strong motion generation areas (SMGAs) based on the empirical Green's function (EGF) method. The locations and areas of the SMGAs were determined through comparison between the synthetic ground motions and observed motions. The sizes of the SMGAs were nearly coincident with the asperities with large slip. The synthetic

  2. Thermal Runaway during Intermediate-Depth Earthquake Rupture

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Prieto, German; Florez, Manuel; Barrett, Sarah; Beroza, Gregory; Pedraza, Patricia; Blanco, Jose; Poveda, Esteban

    2014-05-01

    Intermediate-depth earthquakes occur at depths of 50 to 300 km in subducting lithosphere. Despite their ubiquity in earthquake catalogs, their physical mechanism remains unclear because ambient temperatures and pressures are expected to lead to ductile, rather than brittle deformation. There are two leading explanations for the physical mechanism that enables these earthquakes. In the first, high pore pressure from metamorphic dehydration reactions in the subducting slab reduces the effective normal stress sufficiently to enable frictional failure. In the second, slow deformation generates heat, which leads to weakening, further deformation, and a self-localizing thermal shear runaway. We use the nest of intermediate-depth earthquakes under Bucaramanga, Colombia as recorded by the digital RSNC (Red Sísmica Nacional de Colombia) regional seismic network to explore these two possibilities. We observe a combination of high stress drop and low radiation efficiency for Mw 4-5 earthquakes in the Bucaramanga Nest that points to the importance of thermal effects. If we assume a cm-scale fault-zone width, this combination implies a temperature increase of 600-1,000ºC during earthquake failure, which suggests that substantial shear heating, and possibly partial melting, occurs during intermediate-depth earthquake failure. Our observations support thermal shear runaway as the mechanism for intermediate-depth earthquakes. This mechanism could help explain differences in their behavior, such as the paucity of aftershocks, compared to shallow earthquakes. Although we have inferred these mechanisms for intermediate depth earthquakes, it's likely that they would apply for rapid deformation on the deep extensions of fault zones as well - particularly during large earthquakes, such as the 2012 Mw 8.6 strike-slip event off Sumatra, which is inferred to have ruptured well into the oceanic mantle.

  3. When Yawning Occurs in Elephants

    PubMed Central

    Rossman, Zoë T.; Hart, Benjamin L.; Greco, Brian J.; Young, Debbie; Padfield, Clare; Weidner, Lisa; Gates, Jennifer; Hart, Lynette A.

    2017-01-01

    Yawning is a widely recognized behavior in mammalian species. One would expect that elephants yawn, although to our knowledge, no one has reported observations of yawning in any species of elephant. After confirming a behavioral pattern matching the criteria of yawning in two Asian elephants (Elephas maximus) in a zoological setting, this study was pursued with nine captive African elephants (Loxodonta africana) at a private reserve in the Western Cape, South Africa, the Knysna Elephant Park. Observations were made in June–September and in December. In the daytime, handlers managed seven of the elephants for guided interactions with visitors. At night, all elephants were maintained in a large enclosure with six having limited outdoor access. With infrared illumination, the elephants were continuously recorded by video cameras. During the nights, the elephants typically had 1–3 recumbent sleeping/resting bouts, each lasting 1–2 h. Yawning was a regular occurrence upon arousal from a recumbency, especially in the final recumbency of the night. Yawning was significantly more frequent in some elephants. Yawning was rare during the daytime and during periods of standing around in the enclosure at night. In six occurrences of likely contagious yawning, one elephant yawned upon seeing another elephant yawning upon arousal from a final recumbency; we recorded the sex and age category of the participants. The generality of yawning in both African and Asian elephants in other environments was documented in video recordings from 39 zoological facilities. In summary, the study provides evidence that yawning does occur in both African and Asian elephants, and in African elephants, yawning was particularly associated with arousal from nighttime recumbencies. PMID:28293560

  4. When Yawning Occurs in Elephants.

    PubMed

    Rossman, Zoë T; Hart, Benjamin L; Greco, Brian J; Young, Debbie; Padfield, Clare; Weidner, Lisa; Gates, Jennifer; Hart, Lynette A

    2017-01-01

    Yawning is a widely recognized behavior in mammalian species. One would expect that elephants yawn, although to our knowledge, no one has reported observations of yawning in any species of elephant. After confirming a behavioral pattern matching the criteria of yawning in two Asian elephants (Elephas maximus) in a zoological setting, this study was pursued with nine captive African elephants (Loxodonta africana) at a private reserve in the Western Cape, South Africa, the Knysna Elephant Park. Observations were made in June-September and in December. In the daytime, handlers managed seven of the elephants for guided interactions with visitors. At night, all elephants were maintained in a large enclosure with six having limited outdoor access. With infrared illumination, the elephants were continuously recorded by video cameras. During the nights, the elephants typically had 1-3 recumbent sleeping/resting bouts, each lasting 1-2 h. Yawning was a regular occurrence upon arousal from a recumbency, especially in the final recumbency of the night. Yawning was significantly more frequent in some elephants. Yawning was rare during the daytime and during periods of standing around in the enclosure at night. In six occurrences of likely contagious yawning, one elephant yawned upon seeing another elephant yawning upon arousal from a final recumbency; we recorded the sex and age category of the participants. The generality of yawning in both African and Asian elephants in other environments was documented in video recordings from 39 zoological facilities. In summary, the study provides evidence that yawning does occur in both African and Asian elephants, and in African elephants, yawning was particularly associated with arousal from nighttime recumbencies.

  5. Comparative study of two tsunamigenic earthquakes in the Solomon Islands: 2015 Mw 7.0 normal-fault and 2013 Santa Cruz Mw 8.0 megathrust earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Heidarzadeh, Mohammad; Harada, Tomoya; Satake, Kenji; Ishibe, Takeo; Gusman, Aditya Riadi

    2016-05-01

    The July 2015 Mw 7.0 Solomon Islands tsunamigenic earthquake occurred ~40 km north of the February 2013 Mw 8.0 Santa Cruz earthquake. The proximity of the two epicenters provided unique opportunities for a comparative study of their source mechanisms and tsunami generation. The 2013 earthquake was an interplate event having a thrust focal mechanism at a depth of 30 km while the 2015 event was a normal-fault earthquake occurring at a shallow depth of 10 km in the overriding Pacific Plate. A combined use of tsunami and teleseismic data from the 2015 event revealed the north dipping fault plane and a rupture velocity of 3.6 km/s. Stress transfer analysis revealed that the 2015 earthquake occurred in a region with increased Coulomb stress following the 2013 earthquake. Spectral deconvolution, assuming the 2015 tsunami as empirical Green's function, indicated the source periods of the 2013 Santa Cruz tsunami as 10 and 22 min.

  6. Mental health training experiences among Haitian healthcare workers post-earthquake 2010

    PubMed Central

    Cianelli, R.; Wilkinson, C.; Mitchell, E.; Anglade, D.; Nicolas, G.; Mitrani, V.; Peragallo, N.

    2014-01-01

    Background After the 2010 earthquake in Haiti, the large number of persons with major limb damage, amputations, shock, trauma, anxiety and depression placed a severe strain on mental health (MH) services. Purpose This qualitative study describes the impact and acceptability of a Mental Health Training Program (MHTP) implemented in the north of Haiti after the earthquake. Methods A total of 113 healthcare workers (HCWs) participated in a training program designed to build local MH care capacity. The training curriculum draws on literature related to MH and the impact of the Haiti earthquake. Two focus groups were conducted with 16 HCWs; discussions centred on the personal and professional impact and acceptability of the training program. Discussion Results demonstrated that the MHTP changed the HCWs’ perceptions about MH issues and provided them with the knowledge and skills to respond to growing community MH needs. Acceptability of the MHTP was related to the content covered, to the delivery mode of the content and to the cultural appropriateness of the program. Conclusions Disasters of different types will continue to occur and to impact MH in communities around the world. MH training will allow nurses to quickly and effectively respond to disasters. A coordinated emergency plan that is subject to frequent review, rehearsal and evaluation is also essential. PMID:24251943

  7. The Lushan earthquake and the giant panda: impacts and conservation.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Zejun; Yuan, Shibin; Qi, Dunwu; Zhang, Mingchun

    2014-06-01

    Earthquakes not only result in a great loss of human life and property, but also have profound effects on the Earth's biodiversity. The Lushan earthquake occurred on 20 Apr 2013, with a magnitude of 7.0 and an intensity of 9.0 degrees. A distance of 17.0 km from its epicenter to the nearest distribution site of giant pandas recorded in the Third National Survey was determined. Making use of research on the Wenchuan earthquake (with a magnitude of 8.0), which occurred approximately 5 years ago, we briefly analyze the impacts of the Lushan earthquake on giant pandas and their habitat. An earthquake may interrupt ongoing behaviors of giant pandas and may also cause injury or death. In addition, an earthquake can damage conservation facilities for pandas, and result in further habitat fragmentation and degradation. However, from a historical point of view, the impacts of human activities on giant pandas and their habitat may, in fact, far outweigh those of natural disasters such as earthquakes. Measures taken to promote habitat restoration and conservation network reconstruction in earthquake-affected areas should be based on requirements of giant pandas, not those of humans.

  8. Rapid estimation of earthquake loss based on instrumental seismic intensity: design and realization

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huang, Hongsheng; Chen, Lin; Zhu, Gengqing; Wang, Lin; Lin, Yanzhao; Wang, Huishan

    2013-11-01

    As a result of our ability to acquire large volumes of real-time earthquake observation data, coupled with increased computer performance, near real-time seismic instrument intensity can be obtained by using ground motion data observed by instruments and by using the appropriate spatial interpolation methods. By combining vulnerability study results from earthquake disaster research with earthquake disaster assessment models, we can estimate the losses caused by devastating earthquakes, in an attempt to provide more reliable information for earthquake emergency response and decision support. This paper analyzes the latest progress on the methods of rapid earthquake loss estimation at home and abroad. A new method involving seismic instrument intensity rapid reporting to estimate earthquake loss is proposed and the relevant software is developed. Finally, a case study using the M L4.9 earthquake that occurred in Shun-chang county, Fujian Province on March 13, 2007 is given as an example of the proposed method.

  9. The 2014 M 6.0 South Napa Earthquake in the Context of the Earthquake Cycle in the San Francisco Bay Area

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jaume, S. C.

    2014-12-01

    The 2014 M 6.0 South Napa earthquake is the second M ≥ 5.5 earthquake to occur in the San Francisco Bay region since the 1989 M 7.0 Loma Prieta earthquake. This poster will examine how this earthquake fits into the earthquake history of the Bay region, which has shown considerable variation in the rate of moderate (M 5.5-6.5) earthquakes. A number of models have been developed to explain these changes in moderate earthquake rates, including the Accelerating Moment Release model (e.g., Sykes and Jaumé, Nature, 1990; Bufe and Varnes, J. Geophys. Res., 1993) and the Stress Shadow model (e.g., Harris and Simpson, J. Geophys. Res., 1998). In addition, various groups have made projections of future earthquake activity in the San Francisco Bay region, including the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (Field et al., USGS OFR, 2008) and Bebbington et al. (PAGEOPH, 2010), utilizing different physical models for earthquake occurrence. In my poster I will compare and contrast these different views of seismicity in the Bay region and where the 2014 South Napa earthquake fits into them. In particular, I will explore what these different models imply for future moderate earthquake occurrence and hazards thereof.

  10. Seismic characteristics of outer-rise earthquakes in the different seismic coupling subduction zones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, Hsin-Hua; Lin, Jing-Yi

    2013-04-01

    Characterizing the seismogenic zone of major subduction plate boundaries provides us a possible to reduce large earthquakes hazard. In the past several decades, many scientists have analyzed various geophysical methods and datasets, such as seismic and geodetic ground motion data, historical tsunami deposits, aftershock distributions, and seafloor bathymetry, trying to understand the mechanisms behind great devastating earthquakes, and to estimate the probability of a major earthquake occurrence in the future. In this study, by using the global earthquake catalog (GCMT) from January 1, 1976 to December 31, 2011. We firstly re-examines the outer-rise earthquake model proposed by the Christensen (1988) at the subduction zones suggested to have different coupling levels. The compressive stress cumulated during the subducting processes are often reflected by the occurrence of compressional outer-rise earthquakes. Thus, in the region where the compressional outer-rise earthquakes take place without any corresponding large underthrusting earthquakes, the seismic potential is usually considered to be high. We re-examined the high seismic potential areas determined by this criteria in Christensen (1988) and confirm that the large underthrusting earthquakes did really occur in the 30 years following the appearance of compressional outer-rise events, such as in Tonga region in the vicinity of 20S, a Mw 8.3 large earthquake occurred in 2006. This result represents that the outer-rise earthquake model could be an indicator for the generation of large earthquakes along subduction zones. In addition, to have a more accurate estimation for the seismic potential, we discuss the relationship between the generation of earthquakes and the change of cumulative gravitational potential energy caused by earthquakes (ΔGPE) over time. Our result shows an acceleration of ΔGPE before large earthquakes. Our result also shows that the extensional outer-rise events for strong seismic coupling

  11. Earthquakes induced by deep penetrating bombing?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Balassanian, Serguei Y.

    2005-11-01

    The data of M≥5 earthquakes occurred in one year before and after 4 deep penetrating bombs in the region within 500 km and 1 000 km from the shooting site are presented. The 4 bombs are those happened in 1999 Kosovo of Yugoslavia, the 1991 Baghdad of Iraq, the 2001 Tora Bora of Afghanistan, and the 2003 Kirkuk of Iraq, respectively. The data indicate that the deep penetrating bombs may have remotely triggered some earthquakes. The deep penetrating bombs in seismically active regions should be forbidden.

  12. Proceedings of the third U. S. national conference on earthquake engineering. Volume II

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1986-01-01

    During the past quarter century the North American continent has experienced a number of damaging earthquakes, among which were the 1964 Alaska earthquake, the 1971 San Fernando, California, earthquake, and most recently the 1985 Mexico City earthquake. A large number of smaller earthquakes have occurred during this period, all of which, along with large earthquakes that have occurred in other parts of the world, serve to remind one that the earthquake hazard is real. In view of potential loss of life and the economic losses that could result from large earthquakes, it is important that the United States continue its vigorous efforts towards mitigating the hazards of earthquakes including developing and implementing safe and economic methods of earthquake-resistant design and construction. In the light of the foregoing observations it it fitting that this Third U.S. National Conference on Earthquake Engineering be held in 1986 at Charleston, South Carolina, on the one-hundred-year anniversary of the 1886 Charleston earthquake. Although intended primarily for participation by U.S. practitioners and researchers, participants from many other parts of the world are also present. From the more than 300 papers offered for publication and presentation, over 200 papers are published in the three volumes of Proceedings and the single volume of Post-Conference Proceedings.

  13. Detection of earthquake swarms in subduction zones around Japan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nishikawa, T.; Ide, S.

    2015-12-01

    Earthquake swarms in subduction zones are likely to be related with slow slip events (SSEs) and locking on the plate interface. In the Boso-Oki region in central Japan, swarms repeatedly occur accompanying SSEs (e.g, Hirose et al., 2012). It is pointed out that ruptures of great earthquakes tend to terminate in regions with recurring swarm activity because of reduced and heterogeneous locking there (Holtkamp and Brudzinsiki, 2014). Given these observations, we may be able to infer aseismic slips and spatial variations in locking on the plate interface by investigating swarm activity in subduction zones. It is known that swarms do not follow Omori's law and have much higher seismicity rates than predicted by the ETAS model (e.g., Llenos et al., 2009). Here, we devised a statistical method to detect unexpectedly frequent earthquakes using the space-time ETAS model (Zhuang et al., 2002). We applied this method to subduction zones around Japan (Tohoku, Ibaraki-Boso-oki, Hokkaido, Izu, Tonankai, Nankai, and Kyushu) and detected swarms in JMA catalog (M ≥ 3) from 2001 to 2010. We detected recurring swarm activities as expected in the Boso-Oki region and also in the Ibaraki-Oki region (see Figures), where intensive foreshock activity was found by Maeda and Hirose (2011). In Tohoku, regions with intensive foreshock activity also appear to roughly correspond to regions with recurring swarm activity. Given that both foreshocks and swarms are triggered by SSEs (e.g., Bouchon et al., 2013), these results suggest that the regions with foreshock activity and swarm activity such as the Ibaraki-Oki region are characterized by extensive occurrences of SSEs just like the Boso-Oki region. Besides Ibaraki-Oki and Boso-Oki, we detected many swarms in Tohoku, Hokkaido, Izu, and Kyushu. On the other hand, swarms are rare in the rupture areas of the 1944 Tonankai and 1946 Nankai earthquakes. These variations in swarm activity may reflect variations in SSE activity among subduction zones

  14. The Challenge of Centennial Earthquakes to Improve Modern Earthquake Engineering

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Saragoni, G. Rodolfo

    2008-07-01

    The recent commemoration of the centennial of the San Francisco and Valparaiso 1906 earthquakes has given the opportunity to reanalyze their damages from modern earthquake engineering perspective. These two earthquakes plus Messina Reggio Calabria 1908 had a strong impact in the birth and developing of earthquake engineering. The study of the seismic performance of some up today existing buildings, that survive centennial earthquakes, represent a challenge to better understand the limitations of our in use earthquake design methods. Only Valparaiso 1906 earthquake, of the three considered centennial earthquakes, has been repeated again as the Central Chile, 1985, Ms = 7.8 earthquake. In this paper a comparative study of the damage produced by 1906 and 1985 Valparaiso earthquakes is done in the neighborhood of Valparaiso harbor. In this study the only three centennial buildings of 3 stories that survived both earthquakes almost undamaged were identified. Since for 1985 earthquake accelerogram at El Almendral soil conditions as well as in rock were recoded, the vulnerability analysis of these building is done considering instrumental measurements of the demand. The study concludes that good performance of these buildings in the epicentral zone of large earthquakes can not be well explained by modern earthquake engineering methods. Therefore, it is recommended to use in the future of more suitable instrumental parameters, such as the destructiveness potential factor, to describe earthquake demand.

  15. The Challenge of Centennial Earthquakes to Improve Modern Earthquake Engineering

    SciTech Connect

    Saragoni, G. Rodolfo

    2008-07-08

    The recent commemoration of the centennial of the San Francisco and Valparaiso 1906 earthquakes has given the opportunity to reanalyze their damages from modern earthquake engineering perspective. These two earthquakes plus Messina Reggio Calabria 1908 had a strong impact in the birth and developing of earthquake engineering. The study of the seismic performance of some up today existing buildings, that survive centennial earthquakes, represent a challenge to better understand the limitations of our in use earthquake design methods. Only Valparaiso 1906 earthquake, of the three considered centennial earthquakes, has been repeated again as the Central Chile, 1985, Ms = 7.8 earthquake. In this paper a comparative study of the damage produced by 1906 and 1985 Valparaiso earthquakes is done in the neighborhood of Valparaiso harbor. In this study the only three centennial buildings of 3 stories that survived both earthquakes almost undamaged were identified. Since for 1985 earthquake accelerogram at El Almendral soil conditions as well as in rock were recoded, the vulnerability analysis of these building is done considering instrumental measurements of the demand. The study concludes that good performance of these buildings in the epicentral zone of large earthquakes can not be well explained by modern earthquake engineering methods. Therefore, it is recommended to use in the future of more suitable instrumental parameters, such as the destructiveness potential factor, to describe earthquake demand.

  16. Premonitory slip and tidal triggering of earthquakes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lockner, D.A.; Beeler, N.M.

    1999-01-01

    We have conducted a series of laboratory simulations of earthquakes using granite cylinders containing precut bare fault surfaces at 50 MPa confining pressure. Axial shortening rates between 10-4 and 10-6 mm/s were imposed to simulate tectonic loading. Average loading rate was then modulated by the addition of a small-amplitude sine wave to simulate periodic loading due to Earth tides or other sources. The period of the modulating signal ranged from 10 to 10,000 s. For each combination of amplitude and period of the modulating signal, multiple stick-slip events were recorded to determine the degree of correlation between the timing of simulated earthquakes and the imposed periodic loading function. Over the range of parameters studied, the degree of correlation of earthquakes was most sensitive to the amplitude of the periodic loading, with weaker dependence on the period of oscillations and the average loading rate. Accelerating premonitory slip was observed in these experiments and is a controlling factor in determining the conditions under which correlated events occur. In fact, some form of delayed failure is necessary to produce the observed correlations between simulated earthquake timing and characteristics of the periodic loading function. The transition from strongly correlated to weakly correlated model earthquake populations occurred when the amplitude of the periodic loading was approximately 0.05 to 0.1 MPa shear stress (0.03 to 0.06 MPa Coulomb failure function). Lower-amplitude oscillations produced progressively lower correlation levels. Correlations between static stress increases and earthquake aftershocks are found to degrade at similar stress levels. Typical stress variations due to Earth tides are only 0.001 to 0.004 MPa, so that the lack of correlation between Earth tides and earthquakes is also consistent with our findings. A simple extrapolation of our results suggests that approximately 1% of midcrustal earthquakes should be correlated with

  17. Regional Screening Levels Frequent Questions (May 2016)

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Regional Screening Level RSL frequently asked question FAQ page provides risk assessors answers to common questions about the preliminary remediation goal PRG risk based concentration RBC and risk calculator for the assessment of human Health.

  18. Frequently Asked Questions about Nutrition Labeling

    MedlinePlus

    ... About Teaching Gardens Teaching Gardens-See Our Gardens Teaching Gardens Supporters Why We Garden Weight Management Body Mass Index (BMI) Body Mass Index In Adults (BMI Calculator for Adults) Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) ...

  19. Body Lice Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

    MedlinePlus

    ... Treatment FAQs Malathion FAQs Epidemiology & Risk Factors Disease Biology Diagnosis Treatment Prevention & Control Resources for Health Professionals ... Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) Epidemiology & Risk Factors Disease Biology Diagnosis Treatment Prevention & Control Resources for Health Professionals ...

  20. Head Lice: Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

    MedlinePlus

    ... Treatment FAQs Malathion FAQs Epidemiology & Risk Factors Disease Biology Diagnosis Treatment Prevention & Control Resources for Health Professionals ... Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) Epidemiology & Risk Factors Disease Biology Diagnosis Treatment Prevention & Control Resources for Health Professionals ...

  1. Head Lice: Treatment Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

    MedlinePlus

    ... Treatment FAQs Malathion FAQs Epidemiology & Risk Factors Disease Biology Diagnosis Treatment Prevention & Control Resources for Health Professionals ... Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) Epidemiology & Risk Factors Disease Biology Diagnosis Treatment Prevention & Control Resources for Health Professionals ...

  2. Interim Exceptional Events Rule Frequently Asked Questions

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Air agencies and other stakeholders have raised technical questions and issues related to implementation since the EPA promulgated the EER. This Question and Answer (Q&A) document is intended to respond to some of these frequently asked questions.

  3. Frequently Asked Questions about Genetic Counseling

    MedlinePlus

    ... used on this page Frequently Asked Questions About Genetic Counseling What are genetic professionals and what do ... see a geneticist or other specialist? What are genetic professionals and what do they do? Genetics professionals ...

  4. Frequently Asked Questions about Genetic Disorders

    MedlinePlus

    ... used on this page Frequently Asked Questions About Genetic Disorders What are genetic disorders? A genetic disorder is a disease caused ... significant risk of developing the disease. . Geneticists group genetic disorders into three categories: Monogenetic disorders are caused ...

  5. Frequently Asked Questions about Genetic Testing

    MedlinePlus

    ... sobre las pruebas genéticas Frequently Asked Questions About Genetic Testing What is genetic testing? What can I ... find more information about genetic testing? What is genetic testing? Genetic testing uses laboratory methods to look ...

  6. Non-double-couple earthquakes. 1. Theory

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Julian, B.R.; Miller, A.D.; Foulger, G.R.

    1998-01-01

    Historically, most quantitative seismological analyses have been based on the assumption that earthquakes are caused by shear faulting, for which the equivalent force system in an isotropic medium is a pair of force couples with no net torque (a 'double couple,' or DC). Observations of increasing quality and coverage, however, now resolve departures from the DC model for many earthquakes and find some earthquakes, especially in volcanic and geothermal areas, that have strongly non-DC mechanisms. Understanding non-DC earthquakes is important both for studying the process of faulting in detail and for identifying nonshear-faulting processes that apparently occur in some earthquakes. This paper summarizes the theory of 'moment tensor' expansions of equivalent-force systems and analyzes many possible physical non-DC earthquake processes. Contrary to long-standing assumption, sources within the Earth can sometimes have net force and torque components, described by first-rank and asymmetric second-rank moment tensors, which must be included in analyses of landslides and some volcanic phenomena. Non-DC processes that lead to conventional (symmetric second-rank) moment tensors include geometrically complex shear faulting, tensile faulting, shear faulting in an anisotropic medium, shear faulting in a heterogeneous region (e.g., near an interface), and polymorphic phase transformations. Undoubtedly, many non-DC earthquake processes remain to be discovered. Progress will be facilitated by experimental studies that use wave amplitudes, amplitude ratios, and complete waveforms in addition to wave polarities and thus avoid arbitrary assumptions such as the absence of volume changes or the temporal similarity of different moment tensor components.

  7. On near-source earthquake triggering

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Parsons, T.; Velasco, A.A.

    2009-01-01

    When one earthquake triggers others nearby, what connects them? Two processes are observed: static stress change from fault offset and dynamic stress changes from passing seismic waves. In the near-source region (r ??? 50 km for M ??? 5 sources) both processes may be operating, and since both mechanisms are expected to raise earthquake rates, it is difficult to isolate them. We thus compare explosions with earthquakes because only earthquakes cause significant static stress changes. We find that large explosions at the Nevada Test Site do not trigger earthquakes at rates comparable to similar magnitude earthquakes. Surface waves are associated with regional and long-range dynamic triggering, but we note that surface waves with low enough frequency to penetrate to depths where most aftershocks of the 1992 M = 5.7 Little Skull Mountain main shock occurred (???12 km) would not have developed significant amplitude within a 50-km radius. We therefore focus on the best candidate phases to cause local dynamic triggering, direct waves that pass through observed near-source aftershock clusters. We examine these phases, which arrived at the nearest (200-270 km) broadband station before the surface wave train and could thus be isolated for study. Direct comparison of spectral amplitudes of presurface wave arrivals shows that M ??? 5 explosions and earthquakes deliver the same peak dynamic stresses into the near-source crust. We conclude that a static stress change model can readily explain observed aftershock patterns, whereas it is difficult to attribute near-source triggering to a dynamic process because of the dearth of aftershocks near large explosions.

  8. Source modeling of the 2015 Mw 7.8 Nepal (Gorkha) earthquake sequence: Implications for geodynamics and earthquake hazards

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McNamara, Daniel E.; Yeck, William; Barnhart, William D.; Schulte-Pelkum, V.; Bergman, E.; Adhikari, L. B.; Dixit, Amod; Hough, S.E.; Benz, Harley M.; Earle, Paul

    2016-01-01

    The Gorkha earthquake on April 25th, 2015 was a long anticipated, low-angle thrust-faulting event on the shallow décollement between the India and Eurasia plates. We present a detailed multiple-event hypocenter relocation analysis of the Mw 7.8 Gorkha Nepal earthquake sequence, constrained by local seismic stations, and a geodetic rupture model based on InSAR and GPS data. We integrate these observations to place the Gorkha earthquake sequence into a seismotectonic context and evaluate potential earthquake hazard.Major results from this study include (1) a comprehensive catalog of calibrated hypocenters for the Gorkha earthquake sequence; (2) the Gorkha earthquake ruptured a ~ 150 × 60 km patch of the Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT), the décollement defining the plate boundary at depth, over an area surrounding but predominantly north of the capital city of Kathmandu (3) the distribution of aftershock seismicity surrounds the mainshock maximum slip patch; (4) aftershocks occur at or below the mainshock rupture plane with depths generally increasing to the north beneath the higher Himalaya, possibly outlining a 10–15 km thick subduction channel between the overriding Eurasian and subducting Indian plates; (5) the largest Mw 7.3 aftershock and the highest concentration of aftershocks occurred to the southeast the mainshock rupture, on a segment of the MHT décollement that was positively stressed towards failure; (6) the near surface portion of the MHT south of Kathmandu shows no aftershocks or slip during the mainshock. Results from this study characterize the details of the Gorkha earthquake sequence and provide constraints on where earthquake hazard remains high, and thus where future, damaging earthquakes may occur in this densely populated region. Up-dip segments of the MHT should be considered to be high hazard for future damaging earthquakes.

  9. The 1984 Morgan Hill, California, earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bakun, W.H.; Clark, M.M.; Cockerham, R.S.; Ellsworth, W.L.; Lindh, A.G.; Prescott, W.H.; Shakal, A.F.; Spudich, P.

    1984-01-01

    The Morgan Hill, California, earthquake (magnitude 6.1) of 24 April 1984 ruptured a 30-kilometer-long segment of the Calaveras fault zone to the east of San Jose. Although it was recognized in 1980 that an earthquake of magnitude 6 occurred on this segment in 1911 and that a repeat of this event might reasonably be expected, no short-term precursors were noted and so the time of the 1984 earthquake was not predicted. Unilateral rupture propagation toward the south-southeast and an energetic late source of seismic radiation located near the southeast end of the rupture zone contributed to the highly focused pattern of strong motion, including an exceptionally large horizontal acceleration of 1.29g at a site on a dam abutment near the southeast end of the rupture zone.

  10. A starting earthquake with harmonic effects

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Babeshko, V. A.; Evdokimova, O. V.; Babeshko, O. M.

    2016-11-01

    The possibility of the occurrence of a starting earthquake with harmonic vibrations (caused by the vertical harmonic effect) of the lithospheric plates and the base on which the plates are resting is considered. This case differs from the static one [1], for which the boundary problem operator is characterized by the presence of manifold eigenvalues. In the dynamic case, the eigenvalues of the operator are single. It is found that the starting earthquake also occurs in this case and, in addition, earthquake hazard can increase due to the appearance of fatigue breakdown conditions in the zone of the approach of lithospheric plates. In turn, fatigue breakdown is related to periodic changes in the effective directions of maximal stresses in this zone.

  11. Earthquakes and emergence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Earthquakes and emerging infections may not have a direct cause and effect relationship like tax evasion and jail, but new evidence suggests that there may be a link between the two human health hazards. Various media accounts have cited a massive 1993 earthquake in Maharashtra as a potential catalyst of the recent outbreak of plague in India that has claimed more than 50 lives and alarmed the world. The hypothesis is that the earthquake may have uprooted underground rat populations that carry the fleas infected with the bacterium that causes bubonic plague and can lead to the pneumonic form of the disease that is spread through the air.

  12. Earthquake engineering in Peru

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Vargas, N.J

    1983-01-01

    During the last decade, earthquake engineering research in Peru has been carried out at the Catholic University of Peru and at the Universidad Nacional de Ingeniera (UNI). The Geophysical Institute (IGP) under the auspices of the Organization of American States (OAS) has initiated in Peru other efforts in regional seismic hazard assessment programs with direct impact to the earthquake engineering program. Further details on these programs have been reported by L. Ocola in the Earthquake Information Bulletin, January-February 1982, vol. 14, no. 1, pp. 33-38. 

  13. Properties of "started" earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Babeshko, V. A.; Evdokimova, O. V.; Babeshko, O. M.

    2016-04-01

    The properties of earthquakes called "started" in [1] are studied. The problems associated with the method of revealing them, the expected behavior of the event, and the determination of its place, time, and intensity are discussed. Certain characteristic properties of real earthquakes are compared with the modeled ones. It is emphasized that there are no data on earthquakes of a similar type in scientific publications. The method of using high-efficiency calculations is proposed by imbedding the investigations in topological spaces having a wider spectrum of properties than the functional ones.

  14. Influence of Solar Cycles on Earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tavares, M.

    2011-12-01

    geological feature on earth's surface less frequently. Solar driven events include coronal mass ejections (CME) and coronal holes, which are at a maximum during the descending phase of solar activity. The tectonic are important because there is heterogeneity in the crust and the tectonic stress depends on each region. The geo-effectiveness of solar wind from a coronal hole only depends on the position of the hole relative to the Earth and for the CMEs an additional factor is their velocity. The influence of these solar events could be detected from electromagnetic variations on the ground prior the earthquakes. The goal in this research was to show the solar events influenced the earthquakes and seismologic events following some special display and also how the Sun's activity played to make earthquakes increase. This paper discussed details of this mechanism, calculations and associated factors.

  15. Information Needs While A Disaster Is Occurring

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Perry, S. C.

    2010-12-01

    Evidence from recent earthquakes, wildfires, and debris flows in southern California indicates that many people - local officials as well as residents and visitors - lack important understanding during the time that a disaster is unfolding, a time of uncertainty and confusion. While some of the uncertainty is inherent, some could be alleviated. Physical scientists and engineers know what to expect as the event unfolds. Social scientists know how humans will react during a disaster, and how to effectively communicate the warnings or evacuation orders that may precede it. Such knowledge can improve public safety. As just a few of many examples: - Based on questions posed at numerous public talks, many individuals who practice "Drop Cover and Hold" during earthquake drills do not understand what they are protecting themselves against, and thus cannot determine what to do when an earthquake strikes and they have no cover available. Similarly, they do not know how to act during the aftershocks that follow. - The 2009 Station Fire in the San Gabriel Mountains put foothills communities at risk, first from the wildfire and then from debris flows. Some neighborhoods received multiple evacuation notices during a few days or months. Local officials have expressed frustration and concern about an evacuation compliance rate that is steadily dropping and is now below 50%. The debris flow danger will persist over the next 2-4 winters yet evacuation compliance may drop lower still. - On February 6, 2010, a significant rainstorm brought the threat of imminent debris flows to areas burned by the Station Fire. In one neighborhood, residents loaded their cars with important belongings then waited for indications that they should evacuate. Powerful debris flows suddenly appeared, sweeping the cars downhill and destroying both cars and belongings. Some residents did understand that rainfall intensity would control the generation of debris flows in that storm. But they didn't understand

  16. Mono Lake earthquake of October 23, 1990

    SciTech Connect

    McNutt, S.; Bryant, W.; Wilson, R.

    1991-02-01

    On October 23, 1990, a moderate earthquake of local magnitude (M{sub L}) 5.7 shook the Mono Lake area, a region known for its recent volcanic and tectonic activity. The earthquake was centered approximately 5 miles north of Lee Vining and 16 miles southeast of Bridgeport, near Black Point, an isolated flat-topped hill on the north shore of Mono Lake. Shaking from the earthquake was felt at approximately Modified Mercalli Intensity VI in the local area and weakly throughout much of north central California as far west as Sacramento and the San Francisco Bay area. This article summarizes the seismological features of the earthquake and relates the findings made during a surface fault rupture investigation of epicentral area by Division of Mines and Geology (DMG) geologists. To demonstrate how this earthquake fits into the regional tectonic setting, the character of this event is compared to that of other noteworthy seismic events that have occurred over the last 12 years.

  17. Metrics for comparing dynamic earthquake rupture simulations

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Barall, Michael; Harris, Ruth A.

    2014-01-01

    Earthquakes are complex events that involve a myriad of interactions among multiple geologic features and processes. One of the tools that is available to assist with their study is computer simulation, particularly dynamic rupture simulation. A dynamic rupture simulation is a numerical model of the physical processes that occur during an earthquake. Starting with the fault geometry, friction constitutive law, initial stress conditions, and assumptions about the condition and response of the near‐fault rocks, a dynamic earthquake rupture simulation calculates the evolution of fault slip and stress over time as part of the elastodynamic numerical solution (Ⓔ see the simulation description in the electronic supplement to this article). The complexity of the computations in a dynamic rupture simulation make it challenging to verify that the computer code is operating as intended, because there are no exact analytic solutions against which these codes’ results can be directly compared. One approach for checking if dynamic rupture computer codes are working satisfactorily is to compare each code’s results with the results of other dynamic rupture codes running the same earthquake simulation benchmark. To perform such a comparison consistently, it is necessary to have quantitative metrics. In this paper, we present a new method for quantitatively comparing the results of dynamic earthquake rupture computer simulation codes.

  18. Dynamic triggering of small local earthquakes in the central Himalaya

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mendoza, Manuel M.; Ghosh, Abhijit; Rai, Shyam S.

    2016-09-01

    We present the first observation of remote dynamic triggering of local microearthquakes in central Himalaya caused by the teleseismic waves from the 2007 Mw 8.5 Sumatra earthquake that occurs ~4500 km away. We find small local earthquakes in the Kumaon-Garhwal Himalaya triggered by teleseismic long-period surface waves. Interestingly, an elevated level of seismicity persists for a week or so after the arrival of the teleseismic waves. The teleseismic waves impart ~9 kPa of peak dynamic stresses, suggesting that the Himalayan faults in this area are sensitive to small stress changes. This heightened and protracted seismicity indicates that the transient dynamic stresses may have triggered secondary processes, such as slow slip, that may be responsible for the persistence of this earthquake sequence. The region is thought to be close to a large damaging earthquake in the near future. This study provides improved constraints on the factors controlling the earthquake cycle.

  19. Real-time earthquake monitoring using a search engine method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Jie; Zhang, Haijiang; Chen, Enhong; Zheng, Yi; Kuang, Wenhuan; Zhang, Xiong

    2014-12-01

    When an earthquake occurs, seismologists want to use recorded seismograms to infer its location, magnitude and source-focal mechanism as quickly as possible. If such information could be determined immediately, timely evacuations and emergency actions could be undertaken to mitigate earthquake damage. Current advanced methods can report the initial location and magnitude of an earthquake within a few seconds, but estimating the source-focal mechanism may require minutes to hours. Here we present an earthquake search engine, similar to a web search engine, that we developed by applying a computer fast search method to a large seismogram database to find waveforms that best fit the input data. Our method is several thousand times faster than an exact search. For an Mw 5.9 earthquake on 8 March 2012 in Xinjiang, China, the search engine can infer the earthquake’s parameters in <1 s after receiving the long-period surface wave data.

  20. Real-time earthquake monitoring using a search engine method

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Jie; Zhang, Haijiang; Chen, Enhong; Zheng, Yi; Kuang, Wenhuan; Zhang, Xiong

    2014-01-01

    When an earthquake occurs, seismologists want to use recorded seismograms to infer its location, magnitude and source-focal mechanism as quickly as possible. If such information could be determined immediately, timely evacuations and emergency actions could be undertaken to mitigate earthquake damage. Current advanced methods can report the initial location and magnitude of an earthquake within a few seconds, but estimating the source-focal mechanism may require minutes to hours. Here we present an earthquake search engine, similar to a web search engine, that we developed by applying a computer fast search method to a large seismogram database to find waveforms that best fit the input data. Our method is several thousand times faster than an exact search. For an Mw 5.9 earthquake on 8 March 2012 in Xinjiang, China, the search engine can infer the earthquake’s parameters in <1 s after receiving the long-period surface wave data. PMID:25472861

  1. Oklahoma’s recent earthquakes and saltwater disposal

    PubMed Central

    Walsh, F. Rall; Zoback, Mark D.

    2015-01-01

    Over the past 5 years, parts of Oklahoma have experienced marked increases in the number of small- to moderate-sized earthquakes. In three study areas that encompass the vast majority of the recent seismicity, we show that the increases in seismicity follow 5- to 10-fold increases in the rates of saltwater disposal. Adjacent areas where there has been relatively little saltwater disposal have had comparatively few recent earthquakes. In the areas of seismic activity, the saltwater disposal principally comes from “produced” water, saline pore water that is coproduced with oil and then injected into deeper sedimentary formations. These formations appear to be in hydraulic communication with potentially active faults in crystalline basement, where nearly all the earthquakes are occurring. Although most of the recent earthquakes have posed little danger to the public, the possibility of triggering damaging earthquakes on potentially active basement faults cannot be discounted. PMID:26601200

  2. Subducted sediment thickness and Mw 9 earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Seno, Tetsuzo

    2017-01-01

    I measure the thickness of subducted sediment (Δss) beneath the décollement in the fore-arc wedge and show that the average value of Δss over a subduction zone segment (Δss>¯) is greater than 1.3 km in segments where Mw ≥ 9 earthquakes have occurred and less than 1.2 km in segments without such large earthquakes. In a previous study, I showed that the stress drop (Δσ) of large earthquakes (Mw ≥ 7) averaged over a subduction zone segment (Δσ>¯) is larger in segments where Mw ≥ 9 earthquakes have occurred than in segments without such an event. It has also been shown that Δσ>¯ is linearly related to 1 - λ (λ = the pore fluid pressure ratio in the interplate megathrust). In this study, I revise the previous estimates of Δσ>¯ and λ and show that there is a positive correlation between Δss>¯, Δσ>¯, and 1 - λ. I present a model that relates Δss to 1 - λ based on the porous flow of H2O in the subducted sediments, which gives a theoretical basis for the correlation between Δss>¯ and Δσ>¯. The combination of these parameters thus provides a better indicator for identifying segments where Mw ≥ 9 earthquakes may occur. Based on this, I propose that the tectonic environments where such huge events are likely to occur are (1) near collision zones, (2) near subduction of spreading centers, and (3) erosive margins with compressional fore arcs. Near the Japanese islands, SE Hokkaido is prone to such an event, but the Nankai Trough is not.

  3. Earthquakes and Tremors Remotely Triggered by the 2011, M9.0 Japan Earthquake's Seismic Waves

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gonzalez-Huizar, H.; Velasco, A. A.

    2011-12-01

    Evidence suggests that large earthquakes can trigger seismicity at large distances. The passing of seismic waves can change the stress conditions on previously over stressed regions causing the triggering of small earthquakes and tremors, this phenomenon is known as remote or dynamic triggering seismicity. Here we present the results of a global search of earthquakes and tremors potentially triggered by the surfaces waves from the 2011, M9.0 Tohoku, Japan earthquake. Global seismic networks and catalogs were used to search for instance of instantaneous triggering of earthquakes and tremors during the passing of the seismic waves, as well as for significant changes in local seismic rate after the passing of the waves at several regions of interest. Instantaneous triggering of tremor and earthquakes was observed in places as US, Taiwan, Armenia, Russia, Ecuador and the Caribbean. Important local seismic rate changes were observed in places as Mexico and the Solomon Sea. In order to have a better understanding of this phenomenon, we analyzed the seismic waves and modeled the stress changes caused by them and their relationship with the local stress where triggering occurred.

  4. A primer to frequent itemset mining for bioinformatics

    PubMed Central

    Naulaerts, Stefan; Meysman, Pieter; Bittremieux, Wout; Vu, Trung Nghia; Vanden Berghe, Wim; Goethals, Bart

    2015-01-01

    Over the past two decades, pattern mining techniques have become an integral part of many bioinformatics solutions. Frequent itemset mining is a popular group of pattern mining techniques designed to identify elements that frequently co-occur. An archetypical example is the identification of products that often end up together in the same shopping basket in supermarket transactions. A number of algorithms have been developed to address variations of this computationally non-trivial problem. Frequent itemset mining techniques are able to efficiently capture the characteristics of (complex) data and succinctly summarize it. Owing to these and other interesting properties, these techniques have proven their value in biological data analysis. Nevertheless, information about the bioinformatics applications of these techniques remains scattered. In this primer, we introduce frequent itemset mining and their derived association rules for life scientists. We give an overview of various algorithms, and illustrate how they can be used in several real-life bioinformatics application domains. We end with a discussion of the future potential and open challenges for frequent itemset mining in the life sciences. PMID:24162173

  5. A primer to frequent itemset mining for bioinformatics.

    PubMed

    Naulaerts, Stefan; Meysman, Pieter; Bittremieux, Wout; Vu, Trung Nghia; Vanden Berghe, Wim; Goethals, Bart; Laukens, Kris

    2015-03-01

    Over the past two decades, pattern mining techniques have become an integral part of many bioinformatics solutions. Frequent itemset mining is a popular group of pattern mining techniques designed to identify elements that frequently co-occur. An archetypical example is the identification of products that often end up together in the same shopping basket in supermarket transactions. A number of algorithms have been developed to address variations of this computationally non-trivial problem. Frequent itemset mining techniques are able to efficiently capture the characteristics of (complex) data and succinctly summarize it. Owing to these and other interesting properties, these techniques have proven their value in biological data analysis. Nevertheless, information about the bioinformatics applications of these techniques remains scattered. In this primer, we introduce frequent itemset mining and their derived association rules for life scientists. We give an overview of various algorithms, and illustrate how they can be used in several real-life bioinformatics application domains. We end with a discussion of the future potential and open challenges for frequent itemset mining in the life sciences.

  6. Polar motion, atmospheric angular momentum excitation and earthquakes - Correlations and significance

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Preisig, Joseph R.

    1992-01-01

    Equatorial atmospheric angular momentum (AAM) excitation functions and polar motion excitation functions (derived by Kalman filtering Very Long Baseline Interferometry polar motion estimates) are compared with the times of 1984-mid-1988 large earthquakes (magnitude greater than or equal to 7.5). There is a moderate correlation between times of large earthquakes and peaks in polar motion excitation. A strong correlation exists between the times of large earthquakes and large peaks in equatorial AAM amplitude; such a correlation is evident for six out of the eight large earthquakes occurring over the studied time interval. The AAM results indicate potential for the temporal prediction of large/great earthquakes.

  7. Response of a 14-story Anchorage, Alaska, building in 2002 to two close earthquakes and two distant Denali fault earthquakes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Celebi, M.

    2004-01-01

    The recorded responses of an Anchorage, Alaska, building during four significant earthquakes that occurred in 2002 are studied. Two earthquakes, including the 3 November 2002 M7.9 Denali fault earthquake, with epicenters approximately 275 km from the building, generated long trains of long-period (>1 s) surface waves. The other two smaller earthquakes occurred at subcrustal depths practically beneath Anchorage and produced higher frequency motions. These two pairs of earthquakes have different impacts on the response of the building. Higher modes are more pronounced in the building response during the smaller nearby events. The building responses indicate that the close-coupling of translational and torsional modes causes a significant beating effect. It is also possible that there is some resonance occurring due to the site frequency being close to the structural frequency. Identification of dynamic characteristics and behavior of buildings can provide important lessons for future earthquake-resistant designs and retrofit of existing buildings. ?? 2004, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute.

  8. Potentially induced earthquakes in Oklahoma, USA: links between wastewater injection and the 2011 Mw 5.7 earthquake sequence

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Keranen, Katie M.; Savage, Heather M.; Abers, Geoffrey A.; Cochran, Elizabeth S.

    2013-01-01

    Significant earthquakes are increasingly occurring within the continental interior of the United States, including five of moment magnitude (Mw) ≥ 5.0 in 2011 alone. Concurrently, the volume of fluid injected into the subsurface related to the production of unconventional resources continues to rise. Here we identify the largest earthquake potentially related to injection, an Mw 5.7 earthquake in November 2011 in Oklahoma. The earthquake was felt in at least 17 states and caused damage in the epicentral region. It occurred in a sequence, with 2 earthquakes of Mw 5.0 and a prolific sequence of aftershocks. We use the aftershocks to illuminate the faults that ruptured in the sequence, and show that the tip of the initial rupture plane is within ~200 m of active injection wells and within ~1 km of the surface; 30% of early aftershocks occur within the sedimentary section. Subsurface data indicate that fluid was injected into effectively sealed compartments, and we interpret that a net fluid volume increase after 18 yr of injection lowered effective stress on reservoir-bounding faults. Significantly, this case indicates that decades-long lags between the commencement of fluid injection and the onset of induced earthquakes are possible, and modifies our common criteria for fluid-induced events. The progressive rupture of three fault planes in this sequence suggests that stress changes from the initial rupture triggered the successive earthquakes, including one larger than the first.

  9. Simulating Earthquake Early Warning Systems in the Classroom as a New Approach to Teaching Earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    D'Alessio, M. A.

    2010-12-01

    . The culminating activity is for students to "design" an early warning system that will protect their school from nearby earthquakes. The better they design the system, the safer they will be. Each team of students receives a map of faults in the area and possible sites for real-time seismometer installation. Given a fixed budget, they must select the best sites for detecting a likely earthquake. After selecting their locations, teams face-off two-by-two in a tournament of simulated earthquakes. We created animations of a few simulated earthquakes for our institution and have plans to build a web-based version that will allow others to customize the location to their own location and facilitate the competition between teams. Earthquake early warning is both cutting-edge and has huge societal benefits. Instead of teaching our students how to locate epicenters after an earthquake has occurred, we can teach the same content standards while showing them that earthquake science can really save lives.

  10. Fundamental questions of earthquake statistics, source behavior, and the estimation of earthquake probabilities from possible foreshocks

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Michael, Andrew J.

    2012-01-01

    Estimates of the probability that an ML 4.8 earthquake, which occurred near the southern end of the San Andreas fault on 24 March 2009, would be followed by an M 7 mainshock over the following three days vary from 0.0009 using a Gutenberg–Richter model of aftershock statistics (Reasenberg and Jones, 1989) to 0.04 using a statistical model of foreshock behavior and long‐term estimates of large earthquake probabilities, including characteristic earthquakes (Agnew and Jones, 1991). I demonstrate that the disparity between the existing approaches depends on whether or not they conform to Gutenberg–Richter behavior. While Gutenberg–Richter behavior is well established over large regions, it could be violated on individual faults if they have characteristic earthquakes or over small areas if the spatial distribution of large‐event nucleations is disproportional to the rate of smaller events. I develop a new form of the aftershock model that includes characteristic behavior and combines the features of both models. This new model and the older foreshock model yield the same results when given the same inputs, but the new model has the advantage of producing probabilities for events of all magnitudes, rather than just for events larger than the initial one. Compared with the aftershock model, the new model has the advantage of taking into account long‐term earthquake probability models. Using consistent parameters, the probability of an M 7 mainshock on the southernmost San Andreas fault is 0.0001 for three days from long‐term models and the clustering probabilities following the ML 4.8 event are 0.00035 for a Gutenberg–Richter distribution and 0.013 for a characteristic‐earthquake magnitude–frequency distribution. Our decisions about the existence of characteristic earthquakes and how large earthquakes nucleate have a first‐order effect on the probabilities obtained from short‐term clustering models for these large events.

  11. Nonlinear processes in earthquakes

    SciTech Connect

    Jones, E.M.; Frohlich, C.

    1998-12-31

    This is the final report of a one-year, Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) project at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). Three-dimensional, elastic-wave-propagation calculations were performed to define the effects of near-source geologic structure on the degree to which seismic signals produced by earthquakes resemble {open_quotes}non-double-couple{close_quotes} sources. Signals from sources embedded in a subducting slab showed significant phase and amplitude differences compared with a {open_quotes}no-slab{close_quotes} case. Modifications to the LANL elastic-wave propagation code enabled improved simulations of path effects on earthquake and explosion signals. These simulations demonstrate that near-source, shallow, low-velocity basins can introduce earthquake-like features into explosion signatures through conversion of compressive (P-wave) energy to shear (S- and R-wave) modes. Earthquake sources simulated to date do not show significant modifications.

  12. Statistical distributions of earthquake numbers: consequence of branching process

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kagan, Yan Y.

    2010-03-01

    We discuss various statistical distributions of earthquake numbers. Previously, we derived several discrete distributions to describe earthquake numbers for the branching model of earthquake occurrence: these distributions are the Poisson, geometric, logarithmic and the negative binomial (NBD). The theoretical model is the `birth and immigration' population process. The first three distributions above can be considered special cases of the NBD. In particular, a point branching process along the magnitude (or log seismic moment) axis with independent events (immigrants) explains the magnitude/moment-frequency relation and the NBD of earthquake counts in large time/space windows, as well as the dependence of the NBD parameters on the magnitude threshold (magnitude of an earthquake catalogue completeness). We discuss applying these distributions, especially the NBD, to approximate event numbers in earthquake catalogues. There are many different representations of the NBD. Most can be traced either to the Pascal distribution or to the mixture of the Poisson distribution with the gamma law. We discuss advantages and drawbacks of both representations for statistical analysis of earthquake catalogues. We also consider applying the NBD to earthquake forecasts and describe the limits of the application for the given equations. In contrast to the one-parameter Poisson distribution so widely used to describe earthquake occurrence, the NBD has two parameters. The second parameter can be used to characterize clustering or overdispersion of a process. We determine the parameter values and their uncertainties for several local and global catalogues, and their subdivisions in various time intervals, magnitude thresholds, spatial windows, and tectonic categories. The theoretical model of how the clustering parameter depends on the corner (maximum) magnitude can be used to predict future earthquake number distribution in regions where very large earthquakes have not yet occurred.

  13. Analysis of Landslides Triggered by October 2005, Kashmir Earthquake

    PubMed Central

    Mahmood, Irfan; Qureshi, Shahid Nadeem; Tariq, Shahina; Atique, Luqman; Iqbal, Muhammad Farooq

    2015-01-01

    Introduction: The October 2005, Kashmir earthquake main event was triggered along the Balakot-Bagh Fault which runs from Bagh to Balakot, and caused more damages in and around these areas. Major landslides were activated during and after the earthquake inflicting large damages in the area, both in terms of infrastructure and casualties. These landslides were mainly attributed to the minimum threshold of the earthquake, geology of the area, climatologic and geomorphologic conditions, mudflows, widening of the roads without stability assessment, and heavy rainfall after the earthquake. These landslides were mainly rock and debris falls. Hattian Bala rock avalanche was largest landslide associated with the earthquake which completely destroyed a village and blocked the valley creating a lake. Discussion: The present study shows that the fault rupture and fault geometry have direct influence on the distribution of landslides and that along the rupture zone a high frequency band of landslides was triggered. There was an increase in number of landslides due to 2005 earthquake and its aftershocks and that most of earthquakes have occurred along faults, rivers and roads. It is observed that the stability of landslide mass is greatly influenced by amplitude, frequency and duration of earthquake induced ground motion. Most of the slope failures along the roads resulted from the alteration of these slopes during widening of the roads, and seepages during the rainy season immediately after the earthquake. Conclusion: Landslides occurred mostly along weakly cemented and indurated rocks, colluvial sand and cemented soils. It is also worth noting that fissures and ground crack which were induced by main and after shock are still present and they pose a major potential threat for future landslides in case of another earthquake activity or under extreme weather conditions. PMID:26366324

  14. Magnitude 8.1 Earthquake off the Solomon Islands

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2007-01-01

    On April 1, 2007, a magnitude 8.1 earthquake rattled the Solomon Islands, 2,145 kilometers (1,330 miles) northeast of Brisbane, Australia. Centered less than ten kilometers beneath the Earth's surface, the earthquake displaced enough water in the ocean above to trigger a small tsunami. Though officials were still assessing damage to remote island communities on April 3, Reuters reported that the earthquake and the tsunami killed an estimated 22 people and left as many as 5,409 homeless. The most serious damage occurred on the island of Gizo, northwest of the earthquake epicenter, where the tsunami damaged the hospital, schools, and hundreds of houses, said Reuters. This image, captured by the Landsat-7 satellite, shows the location of the earthquake epicenter in relation to the nearest islands in the Solomon Island group. Gizo is beyond the left edge of the image, but its triangular fringing coral reefs are shown in the upper left corner. Though dense rain forest hides volcanic features from view, the very shape of the islands testifies to the geologic activity of the region. The circular Kolombangara Island is the tip of a dormant volcano, and other circular volcanic peaks are visible in the image. The image also shows that the Solomon Islands run on a northwest-southeast axis parallel to the edge of the Pacific plate, the section of the Earth's crust that carries the Pacific Ocean and its islands. The earthquake occurred along the plate boundary, where the Australia/Woodlark/Solomon Sea plates slide beneath the denser Pacific plate. Friction between the sinking (subducting) plates and the overriding Pacific plate led to the large earthquake on April 1, said the United States Geological Survey (USGS) summary of the earthquake. Large earthquakes are common in the region, though the section of the plate that produced the April 1 earthquake had not caused any quakes of magnitude 7 or larger since the early 20th century, said the USGS.

  15. Earthquake education in California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    MacCabe, M. P.

    1980-01-01

    In a survey of community response to the earthquake threat in southern California, Ralph Turner and his colleagues in the Department of Sociology at the University of California, Los Angeles, found that the public very definitely wants to be educated about the kinds of problems and hazards they can expect during and after a damaging earthquake; and they also want to know how they can prepare themselves to minimize their vulnerability. Decisionmakers, too, are recognizing this new wave of public concern. 

  16. Inland Normal Faulting during the Mw 6.6 Iwaki Earthquake Induced By Temporal Change of Stress State after the Mw 9.0 2011 Tohoku Earthquake, Japan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Miyakawa, A.; Otsubo, M.

    2014-12-01

    A Mw 6.6 earthquake hit Iwaki area, northeastern Honshu arc, Japan on April 11, 2011 (here 2011 Iwaki earthquake). The 2011 Iwaki earthquake occurred one month after the 2011 Mw 9.0 earthquake off the Pacific coast of Tohoku (March 11, 2011; hereafter, 2011 Tohoku earthquake) (Ozawa et al., 2011; Simons et al., 2011). The 2011 Iwaki earthquake was followed by simultaneous slips of multi faults (the Itozawa fault and the Yunodake fault) (e.g. Toda and Tsutsumi, 2013). We examine the activity of the Itozawa fault and Yunodake fault and the mechanical preparation of the 2011 Iwaki earthquake from the temporal change of the stress state before and after the 2011 Tohoku earthquake. Furthermore, we quantitatively evaluate the role of crustal fluid beneath the faults and its supply mechanisms when the 2011 Iwaki earthquake occurred. We revealed that the generation of the slip on the Itozawa fault and simultaneous activity of faults cannot be occurred under the state of stress before the 2011 Tohoku earthquake, even though the both the state of stress is normal-faulting stress regimes before and after 2011 Tohoku earthquake. We show the importance of excess fluid pressure on the 2011 Iwaki earthquake, and we estimated the magnitude of excess fluid pressure ~30 MPa and ~20 MPa on the Itozawa and Yunodake fault respectively. We also show that the state of stress after the 2011 Tohoku earthquake favorably change the permeability of the Itozawa fault to be supplied the crustal fluid beneath the fault. A part of this research project has been conducted as the regulatory supporting research funded by the Secretariat of Nuclear Regulation Authority (Secretariat of NRA), Japan.

  17. Earthquake-induced water-level fluctuations at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, June 1992

    SciTech Connect

    O`Brien, G.M.

    1993-07-01

    This report presents earthquake-induced water-level and fluid-pressure data for wells in the Yucca Mountain area, Nevada, during June 1992. Three earthquakes occurred which caused significant water-level and fluid-pressure responses in wells. Wells USW H-5 and USW H-6 are continuously monitored to detect short-term responses caused by earthquakes. Two wells, monitored hourly, had significant, longer-term responses in water level following the earthquakes. On June 28, 1992, a 7.5-magnitude earthquake occurred near Landers, California causing an estimated maximum water-level change of 90 centimeters in well USW H-5. Three hours later a 6.6-magnitude earthquake occurred near Big Bear Lake, California; the maximum water-level fluctuation was 20 centimeters in well USW H-5. A 5.6-magnitude earthquake occurred at Little Skull Mountain, Nevada, on June 29, approximately 23 kilometers from Yucca Mountain. The maximum estimated short-term water-level fluctuation from the Little Skull Mountain earthquake was 40 centimeters in well USW H-5. The water level in well UE-25p {number_sign}1, monitored hourly, decreased approximately 50 centimeters over 3 days following the Little Skull Mountain earthquake. The water level in UE-25p {number_sign}1 returned to pre-earthquake levels in approximately 6 months. The water level in the lower interval of well USW H-3 increased 28 centimeters following the Little Skull Mountain earthquake. The Landers and Little Skull Mountain earthquakes caused responses in 17 intervals of 14 hourly monitored wells, however, most responses were small and of short duration. For several days following the major earthquakes, many smaller magnitude aftershocks occurred causing measurable responses in the continuously monitored wells.

  18. Radio HF precursors of Earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ruzhin, Yu.; Nomicos, C.; Vallianatos, F.; Shpakovsky, V.

    The high frequency (HF) earthquake electromagnetic precursors (40-55MHz band) were recorded by the four electromagnetic stations a few days (hours) prior the event associated with earthquakes with magnitude more than 5.0 at Crete Island. These experiments were performed continuously during 1998-2002 and specific peculiarities are found. This is underhorizon epicenter position for main part of events under question. Another unusual result is that such HF preseismic radio noise-like signals are responsible for seaquakes too. We made conclusion about developing of some thunderstorm-like charged clouds activity in atmosphere before the seismic event. As result of our analysis and interpretation of the available data of continuous observations on a network of Crete island we should state here, that in an atmosphere above the sea on the eve of earthquake at heights of 0.1-10 km the spatially distributed spots of sporadic charged clouds are occurred and the conditions for the electrical discharges in an atmosphere are created which can serve a source of HF radio-emission registered by Crete network. The atmosphere theory relations are used to model a corresponding to an anomalous event emissions generation observed on the Crete. The supposed mechanism of preseismic electricity generation is the model of convection carrier started in an atmosphere. It is governed by the horizontal gradient of air temperature. The occurrence of electrical charges in a surface of the sea and transportation them further on heights up to 10 km in our model occurs due to sporadic energy injections that allocated within bottom of the sea as gases and heat. The dimensions of width and height govern the size of atmosphere convection cells in the earthquake preparation area. These dimensions of the sporadic spots are close to 3 km each as it is derived from shadow geometry and spectral fluctuations of HF signal. Based on experience of Crete HF precursors observation the method for satellite mapping

  19. Aftershock process of Chu earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Emanov, Alexey; Leskova, Ekaterina; Emanov, Aleksandr; Kolesnikov, Yury; Fateyev, Aleksandr

    2010-05-01

    Chu earthquake of 27.09.2003, Ms =7.3 occurred in joint zone of Chagan-Uzun raised block with North-Chu ridge. Epicentral zone cover a series of contrast geological structures of Mountain Altai (two hollows: Chu and Kurai, devided by Chagan-Uzun block, and mountain range, franking them,: Nort-Chu, Kurai, South-Chu, Aigulak). The seismic process occurred in zone of expressive block structure, and this is embodied in its space-time structure. The high accuracy of hypocental construction in epicenral zone of Chu earthquake is provided by local network of seismological stations (fifteen stations) and experiments with temporary station network in this zone (20-50 stations). The first stage of aftershock process formation is connected with Chagan-Uzun block. The second large aftershock of 01.10.2003 changes cardinally spatial pattern of aftershock process. Instead of round area an elongate aftershock area is formed along boundary of Kurai hollow with North-Chu ridge. In the following process spread out in north-west angle of Chu hollow. Linear elongate aftershock area is subdivided into four elements. The north-west element has form of horse tail, starting as a line in area of outlet of Aktru River in Kurai hollow, and ramifies short of settlement Chibit. Slope of plane of aftershocks for this element is determined from hollow under North-Chu ridge. The seismic process is going not along boundary hollow-mountain ridge, but displaced in hollow side. The central part of element - this are mainly horizontal shift faults, and outlying districts have pronounced vertical components of displacements. The second element stretches from Aktru River to Chagan-Uzun block. Earthquake epicenters in plane make two curved parallel lines. In the angle of Chagan-Uzun block are ceiling amount of uplifts. The third element is the boundary of Chagan-Uzun block with North-Chu ridge. The forth element is formed by aftershocks, leaving in range of Chu hollow. Areal dispersal of earthquakes is

  20. Injection-induced earthquakes.

    PubMed

    Ellsworth, William L

    2013-07-12

    Earthquakes in unusual locations have become an important topic of discussion in both North America and Europe, owing to the concern that industrial activity could cause damaging earthquakes. It has long been understood that earthquakes can be induced by impoundment of reservoirs, surface and underground mining, withdrawal of fluids and gas from the subsurface, and injection of fluids into underground formations. Injection-induced earthquakes have, in particular, become a focus of discussion as the application of hydraulic fracturing to tight shale formations is enabling the production of oil and gas from previously unproductive formations. Earthquakes can be induced as part of the process to stimulate the production from tight shale formations, or by disposal of wastewater associated with stimulation and production. Here, I review recent seismic activity that may be associated with industrial activity, with a focus on the disposal of wastewater by injection in deep wells; assess the scientific understanding of induced earthquakes; and discuss the key scientific challenges to be met for assessing this hazard.

  1. Earthquake prediction, societal implications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aki, Keiiti

    1995-07-01

    "If I were a brilliant scientist, I would be working on earthquake prediction." This is a statement from a Los Angeles radio talk show I heard just after the Northridge earthquake of January 17, 1994. Five weeks later, at a monthly meeting of the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC), where more than two hundred scientists and engineers gathered to exchange notes on the earthquake, a distinguished French geologist who works on earthquake faults in China envied me for working now in southern California. This place is like northeastern China 20 years ago, when high seismicity and research activities led to the successful prediction of the Haicheng earthquake of February 4, 1975 with magnitude 7.3. A difficult question still haunting us [Aki, 1989] is whether the Haicheng prediction was founded on the physical reality of precursory phenomena or on the wishful thinking of observers subjected to the political pressure which encouraged precursor reporting. It is, however, true that a successful life-saving prediction like the Haicheng prediction can only be carried out by the coordinated efforts of decision makers and physical scientists.

  2. Injection-induced earthquakes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ellsworth, William L.

    2013-01-01

    Earthquakes in unusual locations have become an important topic of discussion in both North America and Europe, owing to the concern that industrial activity could cause damaging earthquakes. It has long been understood that earthquakes can be induced by impoundment of reservoirs, surface and underground mining, withdrawal of fluids and gas from the subsurface, and injection of fluids into underground formations. Injection-induced earthquakes have, in particular, become a focus of discussion as the application of hydraulic fracturing to tight shale formations is enabling the production of oil and gas from previously unproductive formations. Earthquakes can be induced as part of the process to stimulate the production from tight shale formations, or by disposal of wastewater associated with stimulation and production. Here, I review recent seismic activity that may be associated with industrial activity, with a focus on the disposal of wastewater by injection in deep wells; assess the scientific understanding of induced earthquakes; and discuss the key scientific challenges to be met for assessing this hazard.

  3. Postseismic relaxation following the 1994 Mw6.7 Northridge earthquake, southern California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Savage, J.C.; Svarc, J.L.

    2010-01-01

    We have reexamined the postearthquake deformation of a 65 km long linear array of 11 geodetic monuments extending north–south across the rupture (reverse slip on a blind thrust dipping 40°S–20°W) associated with the 1994 Mw6.7 Northridge earthquake. That array was surveyed frequently in the interval from 4 to 2650 days after the earthquake. The velocity of each of the monuments over the interval 100–2650 days postearthquake appears to be constant. Moreover, the profile of those velocities along the length of the array is very similar to a preearthquake velocity profile for a nearby, similarly oriented array. We take this to indicate that significant postseismic relaxation is evident only in the first 100 days postseismic and that the subsequent linear trend is typical of the interseismic interval. The postseismic relaxation (postseismic displacement less displacement that would have occurred at the preseismic velocity) is found to be almost wholly parallel (N70°W) to the nearby (40 km) San Andreas Fault with only negligible relaxation in the direction of coseismic slip (N20°E) on the Northridge rupture. We suggest that the N70°W relaxation is caused by aseismic, right-lateral slip at depth on the San Andreas Fault, excess slip presumably triggered by the Northridge rupture. Finally, using the Dieterich (1994) stress-seismicity relation, we show that return to the preseismic deformation rate within 100 days following the earthquake could be consistent with the cumulative number of M > 2.5 earthquakes observed following the main shock.

  4. Rock friction and its implications for earthquake prediction examined via models of Parkfield earthquakes.

    PubMed Central

    Tullis, T E

    1996-01-01

    The friction of rocks in the laboratory is a function of time, velocity of sliding, and displacement. Although the processes responsible for these dependencies are unknown, constitutive equations have been developed that do a reasonable job of describing the laboratory behavior. These constitutive laws have been used to create a model of earthquakes at Parkfield, CA, by using boundary conditions appropriate for the section of the fault that slips in magnitude 6 earthquakes every 20-30 years. The behavior of this model prior to the earthquakes is investigated to determine whether or not the model earthquakes could be predicted in the real world by using realistic instruments and instrument locations. Premonitory slip does occur in the model, but it is relatively restricted in time and space and detecting it from the surface may be difficult. The magnitude of the strain rate at the earth's surface due to this accelerating slip seems lower than the detectability limit of instruments in the presence of earth noise. Although not specifically modeled, microseismicity related to the accelerating creep and to creep events in the model should be detectable. In fact the logarithm of the moment rate on the hypocentral cell of the fault due to slip increases linearly with minus the logarithm of the time to the earthquake. This could conceivably be used to determine when the earthquake was going to occur. An unresolved question is whether this pattern of accelerating slip could be recognized from the microseismicity, given the discrete nature of seismic events. Nevertheless, the model results suggest that the most likely solution to earthquake prediction is to look for a pattern of acceleration in microseismicity and thereby identify the microearthquakes as foreshocks. Images Fig. 4 Fig. 4 Fig. 5 Fig. 7 PMID:11607668

  5. Rock friction and its implications for earthquake prediction examined via models of Parkfield earthquakes.

    PubMed

    Tullis, T E

    1996-04-30

    The friction of rocks in the laboratory is a function of time, velocity of sliding, and displacement. Although the processes responsible for these dependencies are unknown, constitutive equations have been developed that do a reasonable job of describing the laboratory behavior. These constitutive laws have been used to create a model of earthquakes at Parkfield, CA, by using boundary conditions appropriate for the section of the fault that slips in magnitude 6 earthquakes every 20-30 years. The behavior of this model prior to the earthquakes is investigated to determine whether or not the model earthquakes could be predicted in the real world by using realistic instruments and instrument locations. Premonitory slip does occur in the model, but it is relatively restricted in time and space and detecting it from the surface may be difficult. The magnitude of the strain rate at the earth's surface due to this accelerating slip seems lower than the detectability limit of instruments in the presence of earth noise. Although not specifically modeled, microseismicity related to the accelerating creep and to creep events in the model should be detectable. In fact the logarithm of the moment rate on the hypocentral cell of the fault due to slip increases linearly with minus the logarithm of the time to the earthquake. This could conceivably be used to determine when the earthquake was going to occur. An unresolved question is whether this pattern of accelerating slip could be recognized from the microseismicity, given the discrete nature of seismic events. Nevertheless, the model results suggest that the most likely solution to earthquake prediction is to look for a pattern of acceleration in microseismicity and thereby identify the microearthquakes as foreshocks.

  6. Threshold magnitude for Ionospheric TEC response to earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Perevalova, N. P.; Sankov, V. A.; Astafyeva, E. I.; Zhupityaeva, A. S.

    2014-02-01

    We have analyzed ionospheric response to earthquakes with magnitudes of 4.1-8.8 which occurred under quiet geomagnetic conditions in different regions of the world (the Baikal region, Kuril Islands, Japan, Greece, Indonesia, China, New Zealand, Salvador, and Chile). This investigation relied on measurements of total electron content (TEC) variations made by ground-based dual-frequency GPS receivers. To perform the analysis, we selected earthquakes with permanent GPS stations installed close by. Data processing has revealed that after 4.1-6.3-magnitude earthquakes wave disturbances in TEC variations are undetectable. We have thoroughly analyzed publications over the period of 1965-2013 which reported on registration of wave TIDs after earthquakes. This analysis demonstrated that the magnitude of the earthquakes having a wave response in the ionosphere was no less than 6.5. Based on our results and on the data from other researchers, we can conclude that there is a threshold magnitude (near 6.5) below which there are no pronounced earthquake-induced wave TEC disturbances. The probability of detection of post-earthquake TIDs with a magnitude close to the threshold depends strongly on geophysical conditions. In addition, reliable identification of the source of such TIDs generally requires many GPS stations in an earthquake zone. At low magnitudes, seismic energy is likely to be insufficient to generate waves in the neutral atmosphere which are able to induce TEC disturbances observable at the level of background fluctuations.

  7. The 1909 Taipei earthquake: implication for seismic hazard in Taipei

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kanamori, Hiroo; Lee, William H.K.; Ma, Kuo-Fong

    2012-01-01

    The 1909 April 14 Taiwan earthquake caused significant damage in Taipei. Most of the information on this earthquake available until now is from the written reports on its macro-seismic effects and from seismic station bulletins. In view of the importance of this event for assessing the shaking hazard in the present-day Taipei, we collected historical seismograms and station bulletins of this event and investigated them in conjunction with other seismological data. We compared the observed seismograms with those from recent earthquakes in similar tectonic environments to characterize the 1909 earthquake. Despite the inevitably large uncertainties associated with old data, we conclude that the 1909 Taipei earthquake is a relatively deep (50–100 km) intraplate earthquake that occurred within the subducting Philippine Sea Plate beneath Taipei with an estimated M_W of 7 ± 0.3. Some intraplate events elsewhere in the world are enriched in high-frequency energy and the resulting ground motions can be very strong. Thus, despite its relatively large depth and a moderately large magnitude, it would be prudent to review the safety of the existing structures in Taipei against large intraplate earthquakes like the 1909 Taipei earthquake.

  8. Application of optical remote sensing in the Wenchuan earthquake assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Bing; Lei, Liping; Zhang, Li; Liu, Liangyun; Zhu, Boqin; Zuo, Zhengli

    2009-06-01

    A mega-earthquake of magnitude 8 of Richter scale occurred in Wenchuan County, Sichuan Province, China on May 12, 2008. The earthquake inflicted heavy loss of human lives and properties. The Wenchuan earthquake induced geological disasters, house collapse, and road blockage. In this paper, we demonstrate an application of optical remote sensing images acquired from airborne and satellite platforms in assessing the earthquake damages. The high-resolution airborne images were acquired by the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS). The pre- and post-earthquake satellite images of QuickBird, IKONOS, Landsat TM, ALOS, and SPOT were collected by the Center for Earth Observation & Digital Earth (CEODE), CAS, and some of the satellite data were provided by the United States, Japan, and the European Space Agency. The pre- and post-earthquake remote sensing images integrated with DEM and GIS data were adopted to monitor and analyze various earthquake disasters, such as road blockage, house collapse, landslides, avalanches, rock debris flows, and barrier lakes. The results showed that airborne optical images provide a convenient tool for quick and timely monitoring and assessing of the distribution and dynamic changes of the disasters over the earthquake-struck regions. In addition, our study showed that the optical remote sensing data integrated with GIS data can be used to assess disaster conditions such as damaged farmlands, soil erosion, etc, which in turn provides useful information for the postdisaster reconstruction.

  9. Earthquake scenarios based on lessons from the past

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Solakov, Dimcho; Simeonova, Stella; Aleksandrova, Irena; Popova, Iliana

    2010-05-01

    Earthquakes are the most deadly of the natural disasters affecting the human environment; indeed catastrophic earthquakes have marked the whole human history. Global seismic hazard and vulnerability to earthquakes are increasing steadily as urbanization and development occupy more areas that are prone to effects of strong earthquakes. Additionally, the uncontrolled growth of mega cities in highly seismic areas around the world is often associated with the construction of seismically unsafe buildings and infrastructures, and undertaken with an insufficient knowledge of the regional seismicity peculiarities and seismic hazard. The assessment of seismic hazard and generation of earthquake scenarios is the first link in the prevention chain and the first step in the evaluation of the seismic risk. The implementation of the earthquake scenarios into the policies for seismic risk reduction will allow focusing on the prevention of earthquake effects rather than on intervention following the disasters. The territory of Bulgaria (situated in the eastern part of the Balkan Peninsula) represents a typical example of high seismic risk area. Over the centuries, Bulgaria has experienced strong earthquakes. At the beginning of the 20-the century (from 1901 to 1928) five earthquakes with magnitude larger than or equal to MS=7.0 occurred in Bulgaria. However, no such large earthquakes occurred in Bulgaria since 1928, which may induce non-professionals to underestimate the earthquake risk. The 1986 earthquake of magnitude MS=5.7 occurred in the central northern Bulgaria (near the town of Strazhitsa) is the strongest quake after 1928. Moreover, the seismicity of the neighboring countries, like Greece, Turkey, former Yugoslavia and Romania (especially Vrancea-Romania intermediate earthquakes), influences the seismic hazard in Bulgaria. In the present study deterministic scenarios (expressed in seismic intensity) for two Bulgarian cities (Rouse and Plovdiv) are presented. The work on

  10. Searching for Unknown Earthquakes in the Guy-Greenbrier, Arkansas, Earthquake Sequence using Efficient Waveform Similarity Search

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yoon, C. E.; OReilly, O. J.; Bergen, K.; Huang, Y.; Beroza, G. C.

    2015-12-01

    Recent seismicity rate increases in the central United States have been attributed to injection of wastewater from oil and gas production. One example is the Guy-Greenbrier, Arkansas, earthquake sequence, which occurred from July 2010 through October 2011, and was potentially induced by fluid injection into nearby disposal wells (Horton, 2012). Although the Arkansas seismic network is sparse, a single 3-component station WHAR recorded continuous data before, during, and after this earthquake sequence at distances ranging from 2-9 km. Huang and Beroza (2015) used template matching to detect over 100 times the number of cataloged earthquakes by cross-correlating the continuous data with waveform templates based on known earthquakes to search for additional low-magnitude events. Because known waveform templates do not necessarily fully represent all seismic signals in the continuous data, small earthquakes from unknown sources could have escaped detection. We use a method called Fingerprint And Similarity Thresholding (FAST) to detect additional low-magnitude earthquakes that were missed by template matching. FAST enables fast, scalable search for earthquakes with similar waveforms without making prior assumptions about the seismic signal of interest. FAST, based on a data mining technique, first creates compact "fingerprints" of waveforms by extracting discriminative features, then uses locality-sensitive hashing to organize and efficiently search for similar fingerprints (and therefore similar earthquake waveforms) in a probabilistic manner. With FAST, each search query is processed in near-constant time, independent of the dataset size; this computational efficiency is gained at the expense of an approximate, rather than exact, search. During one week of continuous data at station WHAR, from 2010-07-01 to 2010-07-08, FAST detected over 200 uncataloged earthquakes that were not found through template matching. These newly detected earthquakes have the potential to

  11. Frequently cited journals in forensic psychology.

    PubMed

    Black, Steve

    2012-02-01

    Works cited in six forensic psychology journals published 2008-2010 were counted to identify the most frequently cited journals. The sample of works cited (N = 21,776) was not a definitive ranked list of important journals in forensic psychology, but was large enough to indicate high-impact journals. The list of frequently cited publications included more general psychiatry and psychology journals than titles specific to forensic psychology. The implications of the proportion of general versus specific titles for collections supporting research in forensic psychology were discussed.

  12. The Mw 7.7 Bhuj earthquake: Global lessons for earthquake hazard in intra-plate regions

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Schweig, E.; Gomberg, J.; Petersen, M.; Ellis, M.; Bodin, P.; Mayrose, L.; Rastogi, B.K.

    2003-01-01

    The Mw 7.7 Bhuj earthquake occurred in the Kachchh District of the State of Gujarat, India on 26 January 2001, and was one of the most damaging intraplate earthquakes ever recorded. This earthquake is in many ways similar to the three great New Madrid earthquakes that occurred in the central United States in 1811-1812, An Indo-US team is studying the similarities and differences of these sequences in order to learn lessons for earthquake hazard in intraplate regions. Herein we present some preliminary conclusions from that study. Both the Kutch and New Madrid regions have rift type geotectonic setting. In both regions the strain rates are of the order of 10-9/yr and attenuation of seismic waves as inferred from observations of intensity and liquefaction are low. These strain rates predict recurrence intervals for Bhuj or New Madrid sized earthquakes of several thousand years or more. In contrast, intervals estimated from paleoseismic studies and from other independent data are significantly shorter, probably hundreds of years. All these observations together may suggest that earthquakes relax high ambient stresses that are locally concentrated by rheologic heterogeneities, rather than loading by plate-tectonic forces. The latter model generally underlies basic assumptions made in earthquake hazard assessment, that the long-term average rate of energy released by earthquakes is determined by the tectonic loading rate, which thus implies an inherent average periodicity of earthquake occurrence. Interpreting the observations in terms of the former model therefore may require re-examining the basic assumptions of hazard assessment.

  13. Relationship Between Afterslip of 2003 Tokachi Earthquakes and Coseismic-slip of 2004 Kushiro Earthquakes Using Viscoelastic Media

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sato, T.; Takemura, H.

    2010-12-01

    The studies of afterslip distribution of large plate interface earthquakes are important for revealing frictional properties on faults, and investigating trigger processes to adjacent faults. After 2003 Tokachi Earthquake (M8.0), Hokkaido, Japan, post seismic deformation was observed, and this observation indicates occurrence of afterslip at eastern side of the earthquake. After 1.2 yr of the Tokachi Earthquake, two large events (M7.1, M6.9) occurred at off Kushiro, which is located 150km east from the Tokachi Earthquake. It is considered that these two events may be triggered by the afterslip of the Tokachi Earthquake. To investigate the trigger process, we estimate special and temporal afterslip distribution. The effect of viscoelastic relaxation at the asthenosphere is important on post seismic surface deformation (Matsu’ura and Sato, GJI, 1989; Sato and Matsu’ura, GJI, 1992). We estimate afterslip distribution of large interplate earthquakes using viscoelastic media. We consider not only viscoelastic responses of coseismic slip but also viscoelastic responses of afterslips (Sato and Higuchi, AGU Fall Meeting, 2009). Because many studies suggested that the magnitude of afterslips was comparable to that of coseismic slip, viscoelastic responses of afterslips should not be negligible. Therefore, surface displacement data include viscoelastic response of coseismic slip, viscoelastic response of afterslips which occurred just after coseismic period to just before the present, and elastic response of the present afterslip. We estimate afterslip distribution of the Tokachi Earthquake using GPS data by GSI, Japan. We use CAMP model (Hashimoto et al, PAGEOPH, 2004) as a plate interface between the Pacific plate and the North American plate. The viscoelastic results show that afterslips concentrate deeper parts of the plate interface at the eastern adjoining area of the Tokachi Earthquake. Just before the Kushiro Events (1-1.2 yr after the Tokachi Earthquake

  14. Evidence of a Large-Magnitude Recent Prehistoric Earthquake on the Bear River Fault, Wyoming and Utah: Implications for Recurrence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hecker, S.; Schwartz, D. P.

    2015-12-01

    Trenching across the antithetic strand of the Bear River normal fault in Utah has exposed evidence of a very young surface rupture. AMS radiocarbon analysis of three samples comprising pine-cone scales and needles from a 5-cm-thick faulted layer of organic detritus indicates the earthquake occurred post-320 CAL yr. BP (after A.D. 1630). The dated layer is buried beneath topsoil and a 15-cm-high scarp on the forest floor. Prior to this study, the entire surface-rupturing history of this nascent normal fault was thought to consist of two large events in the late Holocene (West, 1994; Schwartz et al., 2012). The discovery of a third, barely pre-historic, event led us to take a fresh look at geomorphically youthful depressions on the floodplain of the Bear River that we had interpreted as possible evidence of liquefaction. The appearance of these features is remarkably similar to sand-blow craters formed in the near-field of the M6.9 1983 Borah Peak earthquake. We have also identified steep scarps (<2 m high) and a still-forming coarse colluvial wedge near the north end of the fault in Wyoming, indicating that the most recent event ruptured most or all of the 40-km length of the fault. Since first rupturing to the surface about 4500 years ago, the Bear River fault has generated large-magnitude earthquakes at intervals of about 2000 years, more frequently than most active faults in the region. The sudden initiation of normal faulting in an area of no prior late Cenozoic extension provides a basis for seismic hazard estimates of the maximum-magnitude background earthquake (earthquake not associated with a known fault) for normal faults in the Intermountain West.

  15. Earthquake source properties and wave propagation in Eastern North America

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Magalhaes de Matos Viegas Fernandes, Gisela Sofia

    The study of intraplate earthquakes is fundamental for the understanding of the physics of faulting, seismic hazard assessment, and nuclear monitoring, but large to moderate well recorded intraplate earthquakes are scarce. I use the best recorded earthquake in Eastern North America (ENA)---the Mw 5.0 20 April 2002, Au Sable Forks, NY, earthquake and its aftershock sequence to investigate wave propagation and earthquake source properties in ENA. The Au Sable Forks epicenter is located near the boundary of two distinct geological provinces Appalachian (New England) and Grenville (New York). Existing regional one-dimensional (1D) crustal models were derived from seismic surveys or from sparse ground-motions recordings from regional moderate earthquakes. I obtain improved 1D crustal models for these two provinces by forward modeling, for the first time, multi-path high-quality ground-motions of a moderate earthquake in ENA. Using Au Sable Forks earthquake records at 16 stations (epicentral distances < 400 km) at intermediate frequencies (<1 Hz), I generate synthetic seismograms using the frequency-wave number method. The new models improve the fit of synthetics to data at all 6 stations in the Grenville province and at 5 of the 10 stations in the Appalachian province. I identify complex wave paths along the boundary between the provinces, and 3% azimuthal anisotropy in the Appalachian crust. It is unknown how much earthquake source properties depend on the tectonic setting in which the earthquakes occur. Debate exists regarding the invariance of stress drop with earthquake size in ENA, and whether earthquakes in intraplate regions have higher stress drops than those in more tectonically active regions. I estimate source parameters for 22 earthquakes (M1-M5) of the Au Sable Forks sequence, using two alternative methods: a direct wave method (Empirical Green's Function) and a coda wave method (Coda Ratio) applied for the first time to small magnitude earthquakes. Both

  16. Profile of mortality from the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake using coroner and medical examiner reports.

    PubMed

    Eberhart-Phillips, J E; Saunders, T M; Robinson, A L; Hatch, D L; Parrish, R G

    1994-06-01

    Mortality patterns from earthquakes in the United States may differ from those observed in other parts of the world. We reviewed coroner and medical examiner records for all investigated deaths from seven California counties for 15 days following the Loma Prieta earthquake of October 17, 1989 (N = 327). Data on the circumstances surrounding death were used to classify each case as directly earthquake-related, indirectly earthquake-related, or not earthquake-related. Fifty-seven deaths were judged as directly earthquake-related. Six other deaths were indirectly related. Ten circumstances accounted for all directly earthquake-related deaths, with the collapse of an elevated freeway accounting for 40 of these deaths. Forty-six (80.8 per cent) of the 57 directly earthquake-related deaths occurred in motor vehicles on public roadways. Fifty-three (93.0 per cent) of the directly earthquake-related deaths occurred within seconds or minutes of injury. Future earthquake deaths in the United States may best be prevented by identifying and modifying seismic hazards in earthquake-prone regions, particularly transportation structures.

  17. Baseflow as the trigger of intraplate earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Costain, J. K.

    2012-12-01

    Intraplate earthquakes can be triggered by small changes in crustal loading, unloading, or pore-fluid pressure. A self-organized crust appears to be remarkably sensitive to extremely small changes in either pore-fluid pressure diffusion or stress loading, implying that these small changes in stress do not cause earthquakes, but only trigger them. Baseflow is commonly assumed to be equivalent to recharge. Groundwater recharge can trigger seismicity by reducing the effective normal stress on fractures. Intervals of higher groundwater recharge can be identified by determining when a stream is in baseflow recession, which is accccomplished by a hydrograph separation. Using the central Virginia seismic zone as an example, intraplate earthquakes tend to follow intervals of higher baseflow, i.e., recharge. A finite element model (FEM) of pore-fluid pressure diffusion for which the diffusion is within intersecting and hydraulically transmissive fracture zones allows comparisons to be made between 1) times of maxima in baseflow as determined for stream gaging station 02.0350.00 on the James River in the central Virginia seismic zone (CVSZ) and the time of occurrence of the Virginia 5.8 earthquake of August 23, 2010, and between 2) theoretical times of maxima in pore-fluid pressure diffusion from impulsive surface sources applied to exposed fracture zones as computed from the FEM simulation. The CVSZ, the New Madrid seismic zone, and the central Oklahoma seismic zone (COSZ) are all bisected by major river systems. Preliminary analysis of the stream gaging stations on rivers in and near the COSZ suggests that the earthquakes may be associated with the Canadian River system. The Meers fault does not seem to be involved. There is a slight correlation between the duration of baseflow and earthquake magnitude in the COSZ. The magnitude 5.6 earthquake of November 5, 2011 occurred about 200 days after a prolonged period of relatively high baseflow (recharge) as determined at stream

  18. Hayward fault: Large earthquakes versus surface creep

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lienkaemper, James J.; Borchardt, Glenn; Borchardt, Glenn; Hirschfeld, Sue E.; Lienkaemper, James J.; McClellan, Patrick H.; Williams, Patrick L.; Wong, Ivan G.

    1992-01-01

    The Hayward fault, thought a likely source of large earthquakes in the next few decades, has generated two large historic earthquakes (about magnitude 7), one in 1836 and another in 1868. We know little about the 1836 event, but the 1868 event had a surface rupture extending 41 km along the southern Hayward fault. Right-lateral surface slip occurred in 1868, but was not well measured. Witness accounts suggest coseismic right slip and afterslip of under a meter. We measured the spatial variation of the historic creep rate along the Hayward fault, deriving rates mainly from surveys of offset cultural features, (curbs, fences, and buildings). Creep occurs along at least 69 km of the fault's 82-km length (13 km is underwater). Creep rate seems nearly constant over many decades with short-term variations. The creep rate mostly ranges from 3.5 to 6.5 mm/yr, varying systemically along strike. The fastest creep is along a 4-km section near the south end. Here creep has been about 9mm/yr since 1921, and possibly since the 1868 event as indicated by offset railroad track rebuilt in 1869. This 9mm/yr slip rate may approach the long-term or deep slip rate related to the strain buildup that produces large earthquakes, a hypothesis supported by geoloic studies (Lienkaemper and Borchardt, 1992). If so, the potential for slip in large earthquakes which originate below the surficial creeping zone, may now be 1/1m along the southern (1868) segment and ≥1.4m along the northern (1836?) segment. Substracting surface creep rates from a long-term slip rate of 9mm/yr gives present potential for surface slip in large earthquakes of up to 0.8m. Our earthquake potential model which accounts for historic creep rate, microseismicity distribution, and geodetic data, suggests that enough strain may now be available for large magnitude earthquakes (magnitude 6.8 in the northern (1836?) segment, 6.7 in the southern (1868) segment, and 7.0 for both). Thus despite surficial creep, the fault may be

  19. Quantifying the Seismic Hazard From Natural and Induced Earthquakes (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rubinstein, J. L.; Llenos, A. L.; Ellsworth, W. L.; McGarr, A.; Michael, A. J.; Mueller, C. S.; Petersen, M. D.

    2013-12-01

    In the past 12 years, seismicity rates in portions of the central and eastern United States (CEUS) have increased. In 2011, the year of peak activity, three M ≥ 5 earthquakes occurred, causing millions of dollars in damage. Much of the increase in seismicity is believed to have been induced by wastewater from oil and gas activity that is injected deep underground. This includes damaging earthquakes in southern Colorado, central Arkansas, and central Oklahoma in 2011. Earthquakes related to oil and gas activities contribute significantly to the total seismic hazard in some areas of the CEUS, but most of the tens of thousands of wastewater disposal wells in the CEUS do not cause damaging earthquakes. The challenge is to better understand this contribution to the hazard in a realistic way for those wells that are inducing earthquakes or wells that may induce earthquakes in the future. We propose a logic-tree approach to estimate the hazard posed by the change in seismicity that deemphasizes the need to evaluate whether the seismicity is natural or man-made. We first compile a list of areas of increased seismicity, including areas of known induced earthquakes. Using areas of increased seismicity (instead of just induced earthquakes) allows us to assess the hazard over a broader region, avoiding the often-difficult task of judging whether an earthquake sequence is induced. With the zones of increased seismicity defined, we then estimate the earthquake hazard for each zone using a four-branch logic tree: (1) The increased seismicity rate is natural, short-term variation within the longer-term background seismicity rate. Thus, these earthquakes would be added to the catalog when computing the background seismicity rate. (2) The increased seismicity rate represents a new and permanent addition to the background seismicity. In this branch, a new background seismicity rate begins at the time of the change in earthquake rate. (3) Induced earthquakes account for the

  20. Recurrence Times of Earthquakes in Oaxaca, México

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nunez-Cornu, F. J.

    2012-12-01

    Oaxaca is the most seismic active region in Mexico with 68 larger events, (mb > 6.5; Ms> 7.0) from 1542 to 1989, which implies roughly a large earthquake every 6.5 years; including an earthquake with M=8.5 which generate the most important historical tsunami in Mexico. It is also the most studied from a seismic point of view. Three types of earthquakes take place in the region: low angle thrust fault (associated to the subduction process) with a depth between 15 to 25 km; normal fault with a depth between 65 and 120 km with epicenters north of Oaxaca City (17°N); normal fault with a depth between 25 to 40 km with epicenters between the coast and Oaxaca City. A seismogenic zoning based in seismic, tectonic and historical seismicity studies zones was proposed in 1989; eight zones were defined, two zone along the coast, one for the isthmus and rest inland. For most of them a characteristic earthquake (from the earthquakes occurred in the previous 61 years) was assigned and several models of recurrence times for the different zones were proposed, in some cases this values ( 94, 80, 68 and 13 years) have a standard deviation error of 20%. 23 Years later, 4 larger earthquake have occurred in the region that seems agreed with the recurrence models proposed. Here the models are revised using the information from the recent earthquakes and new studies in the region

  1. Reducing the Risks of Nonstructural Earthquake Damage: A Practical Guide. Earthquake Hazards Reduction Series 1.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Reitherman, Robert

    The purpose of this booklet is to provide practical information to owners, operators, and occupants of office and commercial buildings on the vulnerabilities posed by earthquake damage to nonstructural items and the means available to deal with these potential problems. Examples of dangerous nonstructural damages that have occurred in past…

  2. Contributions to Earthquake Hazard Characterization in Canada from Precision GPS Data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dragert, H.; Hyndman, R. D.; Mazzotti, S.; Wang, K.

    2004-05-01

    In the active seismic regions of Canada, the hazard posed by the recurrence of potentially devastating (M >7) earthquakes is not well defined due to the brevity of the instrumental and historical records, the lack of clear paleoseismic evidence for past large events, and the inexact nature of extrapolating the rate of occurrence of frequent small events to the occurrence of rare large events. This serious shortcoming of probabilistic seismic hazard estimation can be addressed through high-precision GPS measurements which can monitor crustal motions and regional crustal strain associated with the build-up of stress before a large earthquake. In southwestern British Columbia, over a decade of observations of motions of GPS sites of the Western Canada Deformation Array (WCDA) and GPS campaign sites have led to improved models of the locked plate interface on the Cascadia Subduction Zone and better estimates of the landward extent for the next megathrust (M~9) rupture. Regional strain rates based on continuous GPS data from the WCDA and PANGA (Pacific Northwest Geodetic Array) show that the recurrence interval for M7 crustal earthquakes is of the order of 400 years, not several decades as once estimated. Continuous GPS data from these arrays have also led to the discovery of "silent slip" or "slow earthquakes" on the deeper plate interface which do not generate impulsive seismic waves but relieve stress over periods of one to two weeks. For southern Vancouver Island and northwestern Washington State, these slip events appear to occur regularly at ~14 month intervals and have now been found to be associated with distinct, non-earthquake tremors, coining the name "Episodic Tremor and Slip" (ETS) for this newly discovered phenomenon. The repeated relief of small amounts of stress in the ETS zone provides an additional definition of the down-dip limit of megathrust rupture, and the onset of ETS activity could mark times of higher probability for the occurrence of thrust

  3. What is the best use of 100 Euros to reduce the earthquake risk of a residential masonry building in a developed nation? Optimisation and Quantification of the benefits of risk reduction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Daniell, James; Schaefer, Andreas; Wenzel, Friedemann

    2015-04-01

    The average loss per building in developed countries like Australia or Switzerland due to earthquakes will be far in excess of 100€ over a political lifetime of 4 years (via a stochastic risk assessment). So a good question is, what can be done for 100€ and a bit of hard work, to strengthen and retrofit a URM (unreinforced masonry house). Of course much of the loss occurs in a few large events, but significant damage also occurs from more frequent smaller events. Using the CATDAT Damaging Earthquakes Database (Daniell et al., 2011), 57% of deaths from earthquakes have occurred in masonry buildings since 1900 globally. Thus, with a view towards life safety and the maximum return on investment, different options are tested and discussed for retrofitting the average brick house for earthquake resistance. Bolting and bracketing furniture, electrical equipment and valuables to walls, the removal or tying in of certain non-structural elements, as well as adjustments such as seismic wallpaper and reinforcement are tested from empirical and analytical experience from around the world. Of course, earthquakes are not the only main concern for developed nation populations, so a view as to the best use of the 100€ is looked at in combination with other disaster types. Insurance takeout and its implications are also discussed. The process is repeated for the D-A-CH (Germany, Austria and Switzerland) region in order to see the regional economic implications for widespread awareness of earthquake risks and losses. The risk reduction is quan