The added value of dynamical downscaling in a climate change scenario simulation:A case study for European Alps and East Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Im, Eun-Soon; Coppola, Erika; Giorgi, Filippo

2010-05-01

Since anthropogenic climate change is a rather important factor for the future human life all over the planet and its effects are not globally uniform, climate information at regional or local scales become more and more important for an accurate assessment of the potential impact of climate change on societies and ecosystems. High resolution information with suitably fine-scale for resolving complex geographical features could be a critical factor for successful linkage between climate models and impact assessment studies. However, scale mismatch between them still remains major problem. One method for overcoming the resolution limitations of global climate models and for adding regional details to coarse-grid global projections is to use dynamical downscaling by means of a regional climate model. In this study, the ECHAM5/MPI-OM (1.875 degree) A1B scenario simulation has been dynamically downscaled by using two different approaches within the framework of RegCM3 modeling system. First, a mosaic-type parameterization of subgrid-scale topography and land use (Sub-BATS) is applied over the European Alpine region. The Sub-BATS system is composed of 15 km coarse-grid cell and 3 km sub-grid cell. Second, we developed the RegCM3 one-way double-nested system, with the mother domain encompassing the eastern regions of Asia at 60 km grid spacing and the nested domain covering the Korean Peninsula at 20 km grid spacing. By comparing the regional climate model output and the driving global model ECHAM5/MPI-OM output, it is possible to estimate the added value of physically-based dynamical downscaling when for example impact studies at hydrological scale are performed.

Aerosol processing in mixed-phase clouds in ECHAM5-HAM: Model description and comparison to observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoose, C.; Lohmann, U.; Stier, P.; Verheggen, B.; Weingartner, E.

2008-04-01

The global aerosol-climate model ECHAM5-HAM has been extended by an explicit treatment of cloud-borne particles. Two additional modes for in-droplet and in-crystal particles are introduced, which are coupled to the number of cloud droplet and ice crystal concentrations simulated by the ECHAM5 double-moment cloud microphysics scheme. Transfer, production, and removal of cloud-borne aerosol number and mass by cloud droplet activation, collision scavenging, aqueous-phase sulfate production, freezing, melting, evaporation, sublimation, and precipitation formation are taken into account. The model performance is demonstrated and validated with observations of the evolution of total and interstitial aerosol concentrations and size distributions during three different mixed-phase cloud events at the alpine high-altitude research station Jungfraujoch (Switzerland). Although the single-column simulations cannot be compared one-to-one with the observations, the governing processes in the evolution of the cloud and aerosol parameters are captured qualitatively well. High scavenged fractions are found during the presence of liquid water, while the release of particles during the Bergeron-Findeisen process results in low scavenged fractions after cloud glaciation. The observed coexistence of liquid and ice, which might be related to cloud heterogeneity at subgrid scales, can only be simulated in the model when assuming nonequilibrium conditions.

Consequences of changes in vegetation and snow cover for climate feedbacks in Alaska and northwest Canada

USGS Publications Warehouse

Euskirchen, Eugénie S.; Bennett, A. P.; Breen, Amy L.; Genet, Helene; Lindgren, Michael A.; Kurkowski, Tom; McGuire, A. David; Rupp, T. Scott

2016-01-01

Changes in vegetation and snow cover may lead to feedbacks to climate through changes in surface albedo and energy fluxes between the land and atmosphere. In addition to these biogeophysical feedbacks, biogeochemical feedbacks associated with changes in carbon (C) storage in the vegetation and soils may also influence climate. Here, using a transient biogeographic model (ALFRESCO) and an ecosystem model (DOS-TEM), we quantified the biogeophysical feedbacks due to changes in vegetation and snow cover across continuous permafrost to non-permafrost ecosystems in Alaska and northwest Canada. We also computed the changes in carbon storage in this region to provide a general assessment of the direction of the biogeochemical feedback. We considered four ecoregions, or Landscape Conservations Cooperatives (LCCs; including the Arctic, North Pacific, Western Alaska, and Northwest Boreal). We examined the 90 year period from 2010 to 2099 using one future emission scenario (A1B), under outputs from two general circulation models (MPI-ECHAM5 and CCCMA-CGCM3.1). We found that changes in snow cover duration, including both the timing of snowmelt in the spring and snow return in the fall, provided the dominant positive biogeophysical feedback to climate across all LCCs, and was greater for the ECHAM (+3.1 W m−2 decade−1regionally) compared to the CCCMA (+1.3 W m−2 decade−1 regionally) scenario due to an increase in loss of snow cover in the ECHAM scenario. The greatest overall negative feedback to climate from changes in vegetation cover was due to fire in spruce forests in the Northwest Boreal LCC and fire in shrub tundra in the Western LCC (−0.2 to −0.3 W m−2 decade−1). With the larger positive feedbacks associated with reductions in snow cover compared to the smaller negative feedbacks associated with shifts in vegetation, the feedback to climate warming was positive (total feedback of +2.7 W m−2decade regionally in the ECHAM scenario compared to +0.76 W m−2 decade regionally in the CCCMA scenario). Overall, increases in C storage in the vegetation and soils across the study region would act as a negative feedback to climate. By exploring these feedbacks to climate, we can reach a more integrated understanding of the manner in which climate change may impact interactions between high-latitude ecosystems and the global climate system.

Projected Changes on the Global Surface Wave Drift Climate towards the END of the Twenty-First Century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carrasco, Ana; Semedo, Alvaro; Behrens, Arno; Weisse, Ralf; Breivik, Øyvind; Saetra, Øyvind; Håkon Christensen, Kai

2016-04-01

The global wave-induced current (the Stokes Drift - SD) is an important feature of the ocean surface, with mean values close to 10 cm/s along the extra-tropical storm tracks in both hemispheres. Besides the horizontal displacement of large volumes of water the SD also plays an important role in the ocean mix-layer turbulence structure, particularly in stormy or high wind speed areas. The role of the wave-induced currents in the ocean mix-layer and in the sea surface temperature (SST) is currently a hot topic of air-sea interaction research, from forecast to climate ranges. The SD is mostly driven by wind sea waves and highly sensitive to changes in the overlaying wind speed and direction. The impact of climate change in the global wave-induced current climate will be presented. The wave model WAM has been forced by the global climate model (GCM) ECHAM5 wind speed (at 10 m height) and ice, for present-day and potential future climate conditions towards the end of the end of the twenty-first century, represented by the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) CMIP3 (Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project phase 3) A1B greenhouse gas emission scenario (usually referred to as a ''medium-high emissions'' scenario). Several wave parameters were stored as output in the WAM model simulations, including the wave spectra. The 6 hourly and 0.5°×0.5°, temporal and space resolution, wave spectra were used to compute the SD global climate of two 32-yr periods, representative of the end of the twentieth (1959-1990) and twenty-first (1969-2100) centuries. Comparisons of the present climate run with the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) ERA-40 reanalysis are used to assess the capability of the WAM-ECHAM5 runs to produce realistic SD results. This study is part of the WRCP-JCOMM COWCLIP (Coordinated Ocean Wave Climate Project) effort.

Investigating the impact of diurnal cycle of SST on the intraseasonal and climate variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tseng, W. L.; Hsu, H. H.; Chang, C. W. J.; Keenlyside, N. S.; Lan, Y. Y.; Tsuang, B. J.; Tu, C. Y.

2016-12-01

The diurnal cycle is a prominent feature of our climate system and the most familiar example of externally forced variability. Despite this it remains poorly simulated in state-of-the-art climate models. A particular problem is the diurnal cycle in sea surface temperature (SST), which is a key variable in air-sea heat flux exchange. In most models the diurnal cycle in SST is not well resolved, due to insufficient vertical resolution in the upper ocean mixed-layer and insufficiently frequent ocean-atmosphere coupling. Here, we coupled a 1-dimensional ocean model (SIT) to two atmospheric general circulation model (ECHAM5 and CAM5). In particular, we focus on improving the representations of the diurnal cycle in SST in a climate model, and investigate the role of the diurnal cycle in climate and intraseasonal variability.

Potential change in lodgepole pine site index and distribution under climatic change in Alberta.

Treesearch

Robert A. Monserud; Yuqing Yang; Shongming Huang; Nadja Tchebakova

2008-01-01

We estimated the impact of global climate change on lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta Dougl. ex. Loud. var. latifolia Engelm.) site productivity in Alberta based on the Alberta Climate Model and the A2 SRES climate change scenario projections from three global circulation models (CGCM2, HADCM3, and ECHAM4). Considerable warming is...

Evaluation of Oceanic Surface Observation for Reproducing the Upper Ocean Structure in ECHAM5/MPI-OM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luo, Hao; Zheng, Fei; Zhu, Jiang

2017-12-01

Better constraints of initial conditions from data assimilation are necessary for climate simulations and predictions, and they are particularly important for the ocean due to its long climate memory; as such, ocean data assimilation (ODA) is regarded as an effective tool for seasonal to decadal predictions. In this work, an ODA system is established for a coupled climate model (ECHAM5/MPI-OM), which can assimilate all available oceanic observations using an ensemble optimal interpolation approach. To validate and isolate the performance of different surface observations in reproducing air-sea climate variations in the model, a set of observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs) was performed over 150 model years. Generally, assimilating sea surface temperature, sea surface salinity, and sea surface height (SSH) can reasonably reproduce the climate variability and vertical structure of the upper ocean, and assimilating SSH achieves the best results compared to the true states. For the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), assimilating different surface observations captures true aspects of ENSO well, but assimilating SSH can further enhance the accuracy of ENSO-related feedback processes in the coupled model, leading to a more reasonable ENSO evolution and air-sea interaction over the tropical Pacific. For ocean heat content, there are still limitations in reproducing the long time-scale variability in the North Atlantic, even if SSH has been taken into consideration. These results demonstrate the effectiveness of assimilating surface observations in capturing the interannual signal and, to some extent, the decadal signal but still highlight the necessity of assimilating profile data to reproduce specific decadal variability.

Dynamical Downscaling of Seasonal Climate Prediction over Nordeste Brazil with ECHAM3 and NCEP's Regional Spectral Models at IRI.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nobre, Paulo; Moura, Antonio D.; Sun, Liqiang

2001-12-01

This study presents an evaluation of a seasonal climate forecast done with the International Research Institute for Climate Prediction (IRI) dynamical forecast system (regional model nested into a general circulation model) over northern South America for January-April 1999, encompassing the rainy season over Brazil's Nordeste. The one-way nesting is one in two tiers: first the NCEP's Regional Spectral Model (RSM) runs with an 80-km grid mesh forced by the ECHAM3 atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) outputs; then the RSM runs with a finer grid mesh (20 km) forced by the forecasts generated by the RSM-80. An ensemble of three realizations is done. Lower boundary conditions over the oceans for both ECHAM and RSM model runs are sea surface temperature forecasts over the tropical oceans. Soil moisture is initialized by ECHAM's inputs. The rainfall forecasts generated by the regional model are compared with those of the AGCM and observations. It is shown that the regional model at 80-km resolution improves upon the AGCM rainfall forecast, reducing both seasonal bias and root-mean-square error. On the other hand, the RSM-20 forecasts presented larger errors, with spatial patterns that resemble those of local topography. The better forecast of the position and width of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) over the tropical Atlantic by the RSM-80 model is one of the principal reasons for better-forecast scores of the RSM-80 relative to the AGCM. The regional model improved the spatial as well as the temporal details of rainfall distribution, and also presenting the minimum spread among the ensemble members. The statistics of synoptic-scale weather variability on seasonal timescales were best forecast with the regional 80-km model over the Nordeste. The possibility of forecasting the frequency distribution of dry and wet spells within the rainy season is encouraging.

Simulation of seasonal US precipitation and temperature by the nested CWRF-ECHAM system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Ligang; Liang, Xin-Zhong; DeWitt, David; Samel, Arthur N.; Wang, Julian X. L.

2016-02-01

This study investigates the refined simulation skill that results when the regional Climate extension of the Weather Research and Forecasting (CWRF) model is nested in the ECMWF Hamburg version 4.5 (ECHAM) atmospheric general circulation model over the United States during 1980-2009, where observed sea surface temperatures are used in both models. Over the contiguous US, for each of the four seasons from winter to fall, CWRF reduces the root mean square error of the ECHAM seasonal mean surface air temperature simulation by 0.19, 0.82, 2.02 and 1.85 °C, and increases the equitable threat score of seasonal mean precipitation by 0.18, 0.11, 0.09 and 0.12. CWRF also simulates much more realistically daily precipitation frequency and heavy precipitation events, typically over the Central Great Plains, Cascade Mountains and Gulf Coast States. These CWRF skill enhancements are attributed to the increased spatial resolution and physics refinements in representing orographic, terrestrial hydrology, convection, and cloud-aerosol-radiation effects and their interactions. Empirical orthogonal function analysis of seasonal mean precipitation and surface air temperature interannual variability shows that, in general, CWRF substantially improves the spatial distribution of both quantities, while temporal evolution (i.e. interannual variability) of the first 3 primary patterns is highly correlated with that of the driving ECHAM (except for summer precipitation), and they both have low temporal correlations against observations. During winter, when large-scale forcing dominates, both models also have similar responses to strong ENSO signals where they successfully capture observed precipitation composite anomalies but substantially fail to reproduce surface air temperature anomalies. When driven by the ECMWF Reanalysis Interim, CWRF produces a very realistic interannual evolution of large-scale precipitation and surface air temperature patterns where the temporal correlations with observations are significant. These results indicate that CWRF can greatly improve mesoscale regional climate structures but it cannot change interannual variations of the large-scale patterns, which are determined by the driving lateral boundary conditions.

Tuning a climate model using nudging to reanalysis.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheedela, S. K.; Mapes, B. E.

2014-12-01

Tuning a atmospheric general circulation model involves a daunting task of adjusting non-observable parameters to adjust the mean climate. These parameters arise from necessity to describe unresolved flow through parametrizations. Tuning a climate model is often done with certain set of priorities, such as global mean temperature, net top of the atmosphere radiation. These priorities are hard enough to reach let alone reducing systematic biases in the models. The goal of currently study is to explore alternate ways to tune a climate model to reduce some systematic biases that can be used in synergy with existing efforts. Nudging a climate model to a known state is a poor man's inverse of tuning process described above. Our approach involves nudging the atmospheric model to state of art reanalysis fields thereby providing a balanced state with respect to the global mean temperature and winds. The tendencies derived from nudging are negative of errors from physical parametrizations as the errors from dynamical core would be small. Patterns of nudging are compared to the patterns of different physical parametrizations to decipher the cause for certain biases in relation to tuning parameters. This approach might also help in understanding certain compensating errors that arise from tuning process. ECHAM6 is a comprehensive general model, also used in recent Coupled Model Intercomparision Project(CMIP5). The approach used to tune it and effect of certain parameters that effect its mean climate are reported clearly, hence it serves as a benchmark for our approach. Our planned experiments include nudging ECHAM6 atmospheric model to European Center Reanalysis (ERA-Interim) and reanalysis from National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and decipher choice of certain parameters that lead to systematic biases in its simulations. Of particular interest are reducing long standing biases related to simulation of Asian summer monsoon.

Climate impacts of deforestation/land-use changes in Central South America in the PRECIS regional climate model: mean precipitation and temperature response to present and future deforestation scenarios.

PubMed

Canziani, Pablo O; Carbajal Benitez, Gerardo

2012-01-01

Deforestation/land-use changes are major drivers of regional climate change in central South America, impacting upon Amazonia and Gran Chaco ecoregions. Most experimental and modeling studies have focused on the resulting perturbations within Amazonia. Using the Regional Climate Model PRECIS, driven by ERA-40 reanalysis and ECHAM4 Baseline model for the period 1961-2000 (40-year runs), potential effects of deforestation/land-use changes in these and other neighboring ecoregions are evaluated. Current 2002 and estimated 2030 land-use scenarios are used to assess PRECIS's response during 1960-2000. ERA-40 and ECHAM4 Baseline driven runs yield similar results. Precipitation changes for 2002 and 2030 land-use scenarios, while significant within deforested areas, do not result in significant regional changes. For temperature significant changes are found within deforested areas and beyond, with major temperature enhancements during winter and spring. Given the current climate, primary effects of deforestation/land-use changes remain mostly confined to the tropical latitudes of Gran Chaco, and Amazonia.

Climate Impacts of Deforestation/Land-Use Changes in Central South America in the PRECIS Regional Climate Model: Mean Precipitation and Temperature Response to Present and Future Deforestation Scenarios

PubMed Central

Canziani, Pablo O.; Carbajal Benitez, Gerardo

2012-01-01

Deforestation/land-use changes are major drivers of regional climate change in central South America, impacting upon Amazonia and Gran Chaco ecoregions. Most experimental and modeling studies have focused on the resulting perturbations within Amazonia. Using the Regional Climate Model PRECIS, driven by ERA-40 reanalysis and ECHAM4 Baseline model for the period 1961–2000 (40-year runs), potential effects of deforestation/land-use changes in these and other neighboring ecoregions are evaluated. Current 2002 and estimated 2030 land-use scenarios are used to assess PRECIS's response during 1960–2000. ERA-40 and ECHAM4 Baseline driven runs yield similar results. Precipitation changes for 2002 and 2030 land-use scenarios, while significant within deforested areas, do not result in significant regional changes. For temperature significant changes are found within deforested areas and beyond, with major temperature enhancements during winter and spring. Given the current climate, primary effects of deforestation/land-use changes remain mostly confined to the tropical latitudes of Gran Chaco, and Amazonia. PMID:22645487

Significance of hydrological model choice and land use changes when doing climate change impact assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bjørnholt Karlsson, Ida; Obel Sonnenborg, Torben; Refsgaard, Jens Christian; Høgh Jensen, Karsten

2014-05-01

Uncertainty in impact studies arises both from Global Climate Models (GCM), emission projections, statistical downscaling, Regional Climate Models (RCM), hydrological models and calibration techniques (Refsgaard et al. 2013). Some of these uncertainties have been evaluated several times in the literature; however few studies have investigated the effect of hydrological model choice on the assessment results (Boorman & Sefton 1997; Jiang et al. 2007; Bastola et al. 2011). These studies have found that model choice results in large differences, up to 70%, in the predicted discharge changes depending on the climate input. The objective of the study is to investigate the impact of climate change on hydrology of the Odense catchment, Denmark both in response to (a) different climate projections (GCM-RCM combinations); (b) different hydrological models and (c) different land use scenarios. This includes: 1. Separation of the climate model signal; the hydrological model signal and the land use signal 2. How do the different hydrological components react under different climate and land use conditions for the different models 3. What land use scenario seems to provide the best adaptation for the challenges of the different future climate change scenarios from a hydrological perspective? Four climate models from the ENSEMBLES project (Hewitt & Griggs 2004): ECHAM5 - HIRHAM5, ECHAM5 - RCA3, ARPEGE - RM5.1 and HadCM3 - HadRM3 are used, assessing the climate change impact in three periods: 1991-2010 (present), 2041-2060 (near future) and 2081-2100 (far future). The four climate models are used in combination with three hydrological models with different conceptual layout: NAM, SWAT and MIKE SHE. Bastola, S., C. Murphy and J. Sweeney (2011). "The role of hydrological modelling uncertainties in climate change impact assessments of Irish river catchments." Advances in Water Resources 34: 562-576. Boorman, D. B. and C. E. M. Sefton (1997). "Recognising the uncertainty in the quantification of the effects of climate change on hydrological response." Climate Change 35: 415-434. Hewitt, C. D. and D. J. Griggs (2004). "Ensembles-based predictions of climate changes and their impacts." Eos, Transactions American Geophysical Union 85: 1-566. Jiang, T., Y. D. Chen, C. Xu, X. Chen, X. Chen and V. P. Singh (2007). "Comparison of hydrological impacts of climate change simulated by six hydrological models in the Dongjiang Basin, South China." Journal of hydrology 336: 316-333. Refsgaard, J. C., K. Arnbjerg-Nielsen, M. Drews, K. Halsnæs, E. Jeppesen, H. Madsen, A. Markandya, J. E. Olesen, J. R. Porter and J. H. Christensen (2013). "The role of uncertainty in climate change adaptation strategies - A Danish water management example." Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 18: 337-359.

Model and Scenario Variations in Predicted Number of Generations of Spodoptera litura Fab. on Peanut during Future Climate Change Scenario

PubMed Central

Srinivasa Rao, Mathukumalli; Swathi, Pettem; Rama Rao, Chitiprolu Anantha; Rao, K. V.; Raju, B. M. K.; Srinivas, Karlapudi; Manimanjari, Dammu; Maheswari, Mandapaka

2015-01-01

The present study features the estimation of number of generations of tobacco caterpillar, Spodoptera litura. Fab. on peanut crop at six locations in India using MarkSim, which provides General Circulation Model (GCM) of future data on daily maximum (T.max), minimum (T.min) air temperatures from six models viz., BCCR-BCM2.0, CNRM-CM3, CSIRO-Mk3.5, ECHams5, INCM-CM3.0 and MIROC3.2 along with an ensemble of the six from three emission scenarios (A2, A1B and B1). This data was used to predict the future pest scenarios following the growing degree days approach in four different climate periods viz., Baseline-1975, Near future (NF) -2020, Distant future (DF)-2050 and Very Distant future (VDF)—2080. It is predicted that more generations would occur during the three future climate periods with significant variation among scenarios and models. Among the seven models, 1–2 additional generations were predicted during DF and VDF due to higher future temperatures in CNRM-CM3, ECHams5 & CSIRO-Mk3.5 models. The temperature projections of these models indicated that the generation time would decrease by 18–22% over baseline. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) was used to partition the variation in the predicted number of generations and generation time of S. litura on peanut during crop season. Geographical location explained 34% of the total variation in number of generations, followed by time period (26%), model (1.74%) and scenario (0.74%). The remaining 14% of the variation was explained by interactions. Increased number of generations and reduction of generation time across the six peanut growing locations of India suggest that the incidence of S. litura may increase due to projected increase in temperatures in future climate change periods. PMID:25671564

Climate Downscaling over Nordeste, Brazil, Using the NCEP RSM97.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Liqiang; Ferran Moncunill, David; Li, Huilan; Divino Moura, Antonio; de Assis de Souza Filho, Francisco

2005-02-01

The NCEP Regional Spectral Model (RSM), with horizontal resolution of 60 km, was used to downscale the ECHAM4.5 AGCM (T42) simulations forced with observed SSTs over northeast Brazil. An ensemble of 10 runs for the period January-June 1971-2000 was used in this study. The RSM can resolve the spatial patterns of observed seasonal precipitation and capture the interannual variability of observed seasonal precipitation as well. The AGCM bias in displacement of the Atlantic ITCZ is partially corrected in the RSM. The RSM probability distribution function of seasonal precipitation anomalies is in better agreement with observations than that of the driving AGCM. Good potential prediction skills are demonstrated by the RSM in predicting the interannual variability of regional seasonal precipitation. The RSM can also capture the interannual variability of observed precipitation at intraseasonal time scales, such as precipitation intensity distribution and dry spells. A drought index and a flooding index were adopted to indicate the severity of drought and flooding conditions, and their interannual variability was reproduced by the RSM. The overall RSM performance in the downscaled climate of the ECHAM4.5 AGCM is satisfactory over Nordeste. The primary deficiency is a systematic dry bias for precipitation simulation.

Will climate change affect weather types associated with flooding in the Elbe river basin?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nissen, Katrin M.; Pardowitz, Tobias; Ulbrich, Uwe; Nied, Manuela

2013-04-01

This study investigates the effects of anthropogenic climate change on weather types associated with flooding in the Elbe river basin. The study is based on an ensemble of 3 simulations with the ECHAM5 MPIOM coupled model forced with historical and SRES A1B greenhouse gas concentrations. Relevant weather types, occuring in association with recent flood events, are identified in the ERA40 reanalysis data set. The weather types are classified with the SANDRA cluster algorithm. Distributions of tropospheric humidity content, 500 hPa geopotential height and 500 hPa temperature over Europe are taken as input parameters. 8 (out of 40) weather types are found to be associated with flooding events in the Elbe river basin. The majority of these (6) typically occur during winter, while 2 are warm season patterns. Downscaling reveals characteristic precipitation anomalies associated with the individual patterns. The 8 flood relevant weather types are then identified in the ECHAM5 simulations. The effect of climate change on these patterns is investigated by comparing the last 30 years of the previous century to the last 30 years of the 21st century. According to the model the frequency of most patterns will not change. 5 patterns may experience a statistically significant increase in the mean precipitation over the catchment area and 4 patterns an increase in extreme precipitation. Persistence may slightly decrease for 2 patterns and remain unchanged for the others. Overall, this indicates a moderate increase in the risk for Elbe river flooding, related to changes in the weather patterns, in the coming decades.

Statistical downscaling of general-circulation-model- simulated average monthly air temperature to the beginning of flowering of the dandelion (Taraxacum officinale) in Slovenia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bergant, Klemen; Kajfež-Bogataj, Lučka; Črepinšek, Zalika

2002-02-01

Phenological observations are a valuable source of information for investigating the relationship between climate variation and plant development. Potential climate change in the future will shift the occurrence of phenological phases. Information about future climate conditions is needed in order to estimate this shift. General circulation models (GCM) provide the best information about future climate change. They are able to simulate reliably the most important mean features on a large scale, but they fail on a regional scale because of their low spatial resolution. A common approach to bridging the scale gap is statistical downscaling, which was used to relate the beginning of flowering of Taraxacum officinale in Slovenia with the monthly mean near-surface air temperature for January, February and March in Central Europe. Statistical models were developed and tested with NCAR/NCEP Reanalysis predictor data and EARS predictand data for the period 1960-1999. Prior to developing statistical models, empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis was employed on the predictor data. Multiple linear regression was used to relate the beginning of flowering with expansion coefficients of the first three EOF for the Janauary, Febrauary and March air temperatures, and a strong correlation was found between them. Developed statistical models were employed on the results of two GCM (HadCM3 and ECHAM4/OPYC3) to estimate the potential shifts in the beginning of flowering for the periods 1990-2019 and 2020-2049 in comparison with the period 1960-1989. The HadCM3 model predicts, on average, 4 days earlier occurrence and ECHAM4/OPYC3 5 days earlier occurrence of flowering in the period 1990-2019. The analogous results for the period 2020-2049 are a 10- and 11-day earlier occurrence.

Understanding scale dependency of climatic processes with diarrheal disease

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nasr Azadani, F.; Jutla, A.; Akanda, A. S. S.; Colwell, R. R.

2015-12-01

The issue of scales in linking climatic processes with diarrheal diseases is perhaps one of the most challenging aspect to develop any predictive algorithm for outbreaks and to understand impacts of changing climate. Majority of diarrheal diseases have shown to be strongly associated with climate modulated environmental processes where pathogens survive. Using cholera as an example of characteristic diarrheal diseases, this study will provide methodological insights on dominant scale variability in climatic processes that are linked with trigger and transmission of disease. Cholera based epidemiological models use human to human interaction as a main transmission mechanism, however, environmental conditions for creating seasonality in outbreaks is not explicitly modeled. For example, existing models cannot create seasonality, unless some of the model parameters are a-priori chosen to vary seasonally. A systems based feedback approach will be presented to understand role of climatic processes on trigger and transmission disease. In order to investigate effect of changing climate on cholera, a downscaling approach using support vector machine will be used. Our preliminary results using three climate models, ECHAM5, GFDL, and HADCM show that varying modalities in future cholera outbreaks.

Projections of increased and decreased dengue incidence under climate change.

PubMed

Williams, C R; Mincham, G; Faddy, H; Viennet, E; Ritchie, S A; Harley, D

2016-10-01

Dengue is the world's most prevalent mosquito-borne disease, with more than 200 million people each year becoming infected. We used a mechanistic virus transmission model to determine whether climate warming would change dengue transmission in Australia. Using two climate models each with two carbon emission scenarios, we calculated future dengue epidemic potential for the period 2046-2064. Using the ECHAM5 model, decreased dengue transmission was predicted under the A2 carbon emission scenario, whereas some increases are likely under the B1 scenario. Dengue epidemic potential may decrease under climate warming due to mosquito breeding sites becoming drier and mosquito survivorship declining. These results contradict most previous studies that use correlative models to show increased dengue transmission under climate warming. Dengue epidemiology is determined by a complex interplay between climatic, human host, and pathogen factors. It is therefore naive to assume a simple relationship between climate and incidence, and incorrect to state that climate warming will uniformly increase dengue transmission, although in general the health impacts of climate change will be negative.

Decomposition of Sources of Errors in Seasonal Streamflow Forecasting over the U.S. Sunbelt

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mazrooei, Amirhossein; Sinah, Tusshar; Sankarasubramanian, A.; Kumar, Sujay V.; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.

2015-01-01

Seasonal streamflow forecasts, contingent on climate information, can be utilized to ensure water supply for multiple uses including municipal demands, hydroelectric power generation, and for planning agricultural operations. However, uncertainties in the streamflow forecasts pose significant challenges in their utilization in real-time operations. In this study, we systematically decompose various sources of errors in developing seasonal streamflow forecasts from two Land Surface Models (LSMs) (Noah3.2 and CLM2), which are forced with downscaled and disaggregated climate forecasts. In particular, the study quantifies the relative contributions of the sources of errors from LSMs, climate forecasts, and downscaling/disaggregation techniques in developing seasonal streamflow forecast. For this purpose, three month ahead seasonal precipitation forecasts from the ECHAM4.5 general circulation model (GCM) were statistically downscaled from 2.8deg to 1/8deg spatial resolution using principal component regression (PCR) and then temporally disaggregated from monthly to daily time step using kernel-nearest neighbor (K-NN) approach. For other climatic forcings, excluding precipitation, we considered the North American Land Data Assimilation System version 2 (NLDAS-2) hourly climatology over the years 1979 to 2010. Then the selected LSMs were forced with precipitation forecasts and NLDAS-2 hourly climatology to develop retrospective seasonal streamflow forecasts over a period of 20 years (1991-2010). Finally, the performance of LSMs in forecasting streamflow under different schemes was analyzed to quantify the relative contribution of various sources of errors in developing seasonal streamflow forecast. Our results indicate that the most dominant source of errors during winter and fall seasons is the errors due to ECHAM4.5 precipitation forecasts, while temporal disaggregation scheme contributes to maximum errors during summer season.

Assessing modelled spatial distributions of ice water path using satellite data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eliasson, S.; Buehler, S. A.; Milz, M.; Eriksson, P.; John, V. O.

2010-05-01

The climate models used in the IPCC AR4 show large differences in monthly mean cloud ice. The most valuable source of information that can be used to potentially constrain the models is global satellite data. For this, the data sets must be long enough to capture the inter-annual variability of Ice Water Path (IWP). PATMOS-x was used together with ISCCP for the annual cycle evaluation in Fig. 7 while ECHAM-5 was used for the correlation with other models in Table 3. A clear distinction between ice categories in satellite retrievals, as desired from a model point of view, is currently impossible. However, long-term satellite data sets may still be used to indicate the climatology of IWP spatial distribution. We evaluated satellite data sets from CloudSat, PATMOS-x, ISCCP, MODIS and MSPPS in terms of monthly mean IWP, to determine which data sets can be used to evaluate the climate models. IWP data from CloudSat cloud profiling radar provides the most advanced data set on clouds. As CloudSat data are too short to evaluate the model data directly, it was mainly used here to evaluate IWP from the other satellite data sets. ISCCP and MSPPS were shown to have comparatively low IWP values. ISCCP shows particularly low values in the tropics, while MSPPS has particularly low values outside the tropics. MODIS and PATMOS-x were in closest agreement with CloudSat in terms of magnitude and spatial distribution, with MODIS being the best of the two. As PATMOS-x extends over more than 25 years and is in fairly close agreement with CloudSat, it was chosen as the reference data set for the model evaluation. In general there are large discrepancies between the individual climate models, and all of the models show problems in reproducing the observed spatial distribution of cloud-ice. Comparisons consistently showed that ECHAM-5 is the GCM from IPCC AR4 closest to satellite observations.

Climate Change, Public Health, and Decision Support: The New Threat of Vector-borne Disease

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grant, F.; Kumar, S.

2011-12-01

Climate change and vector-borne diseases constitute a massive threat to human development. It will not be enough to cut emissions of greenhouse gases-the tide of the future has already been established. Climate change and vector-borne diseases are already undermining the world's efforts to reduce extreme poverty. It is in the best interests of the world leaders to think in terms of concerted global actions, but adaptation and mitigation must be accomplished within the context of local community conditions, resources, and needs. Failure to act will continue to consign developed countries to completely avoidable health risks and significant expense. Failure to act will also reduce poorest of the world's population-some 2.6 billion people-to a future of diminished opportunity. Northrop Grumman has taken significant steps forward to develop the tools needed to assess climate change impacts on public health, collect relevant data for decision making, model projections at regional and local levels; and, deliver information and knowledge to local and regional stakeholders. Supporting these tools is an advanced enterprise architecture consisting of high performance computing, GIS visualization, and standards-based architecture. To address current deficiencies in local planning and decision making with respect to regional climate change and its effect on human health, our research is focused on performing a dynamical downscaling with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to develop decision aids that translate the regional climate data into actionable information for users. For the present climate WRF was forced with the Max Planck Institute European Center/Hamburg Model version 5 (ECHAM5) General Circulation Model 20th century simulation. For the 21th century climate, we used an ECHAM5 simulation with the Special Report on Emissions (SRES) A1B emissions scenario. WRF was run in nested mode at spatial resolution of 108 km, 36 km and 12 km and 28 vertical levels. This model was examined relative to two mosquito vectors, both competent carriers of dengue fever, a viral, vector-borne disease. Models which incorporate public health considerations can enable decision makers to take proactive steps to mitigate the impacts and adapt to the changing environmental conditions. In this paper we provide a snapshot of our climate initiative and some examples relative to our public health practice work in vector-borne diseases to illustrate how integrated decision support could be of assistance to regional and local communities worldwide.

Modelling absorbing aerosol with ECHAM-HAM: Insights from regional studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tegen, Ina; Heinold, Bernd; Schepanski, Kerstin; Banks, Jamie; Kubin, Anne; Schacht, Jacob

2017-04-01

Quantifying distributions and properties of absorbing aerosol is a basis for investigations of interactions of aerosol particles with radiation and climate. While evaluations of aerosol models by field measurements can be particularly successful at the regional scale, such results need to be put into a global context for climate studies. We present an overview over studies performed at the Leibniz Institute for Tropospheric Research aiming at constraining the properties of mineral dust and soot aerosol in the global aerosol model ECHAM6-HAM2 based on different regional studies. An example is the impact of different sources for dust transported to central Asia, which is influenced, by far-range transport of dust from Arabia and the Sahara together with dust from local sources. Dust types from these different source regions were investigated in the context of the CADEX project and are expected to have different optical properties. For Saharan dust, satellite retrievals from MSG SEVIRI are used to constrain Saharan dust sources and optical properties. In the Arctic region, on one hand dust aerosol is simulated in the framework of the PalMod project. On the other hand aerosol measurements that will be taken during the DFG-funded (AC)3 field campaigns will be used to evaluate the simulated transport pathways of soot aerosol from European, North American and Asian sources, as well as the parameterization of soot ageing processes in ECHAM6-HAM2. Ultimately, results from these studies will improve the representation of aerosol absorption in the global model.

Numerical Issues Associated with Compensating and Competing Processes in Climate Models: an Example from ECHAM-HAM

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wan, Hui; Rasch, Philip J.; Zhang, Kai

2013-06-26

The purpose of this paper is to draw attention to the need for appropriate numerical techniques to represent process interactions in climate models. In two versions of the ECHAM-HAM model, different time integration methods are used to solve the sulfuric acid (H2SO4) gas evolution equation, which lead to substantially different results in the H2SO4 gas concentration and the aerosol nucleation rate. Using convergence tests and sensitivity simulations performed with various time stepping schemes, it is confirmed that numerical errors in the second model version are significantly smaller than those in version one. The use of sequential operator splitting in combinationmore » with long time step is identified as the main reason for the large systematic biases in the old model. The remaining errors in version two in the nucleation rate, related to the competition between condensation and nucleation, have a clear impact on the simulated concentration of cloud condensation nuclei in the lower troposphere. These errors can be significantly reduced by employing an implicit solver that handles production, condensation and nucleation at the same time. Lessons learned in this work underline the need for more caution when treating multi-time-scale problems involving compensating and competing processes, a common occurrence in current climate models.« less

Use of Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer bidirectional reflectance distribution function products to enhance simulated surface albedos

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roesch, Andreas; Schaaf, Crystal; Gao, Feng

2004-06-01

Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) surface albedo at high spatial and spectral resolution is compared with other remotely sensed climatologies, ground-based data, and albedos simulated with the European Center/Hamburg 4 (ECHAM4) global climate model at T42 resolution. The study demonstrates the importance of MODIS data in assessing and improving albedo parameterizations in weather forecast and climate models. The remotely sensed PINKER surface albedo climatology follows the MODIS estimates fairly well in both the visible and near-infrared spectra, whereas ECHAM4 simulates high positive albedo biases over snow-covered boreal forests and the Himalayas. In contrast, the ECHAM4 albedo is probably too low over the Sahara sand desert and adjacent steppes. The study clearly indicates that neglecting albedo variations within T42 grid boxes leads to significant errors in the simulated regional climate and horizontal fluxes, mainly in mountainous and/or snow-covered regions. MODIS surface albedo at 0.05 resolution agrees quite well with in situ field measurements collected at Baseline Surface Radiation Network (BSRN) sites during snow-free periods, while significant positive biases are found under snow-covered conditions, mainly due to differences in the vegetation cover at the BSRN site (short grass) and the vegetation within the larger MODIS grid box. Black sky (direct beam) albedo from the MODIS bidirectional reflectance distribution function model captures the diurnal albedo cycle at BSRN sites with sufficient accuracy. The greatest negative biases are generally found when the Sun is low. A realistic approach for relating albedo and zenith angle has been proposed. Detailed evaluations have demonstrated that ignoring the zenith angle dependence may lead to significant errors in the surface energy balance.

The impacts of climate, land use, and demography on fires during the 21st century simulated by CLM-CN

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kloster, S.; Mahowald, N. M.; Randerson, J. T.; Lawrence, P. J.

2012-01-01

Landscape fires during the 21st century are expected to change in response to multiple agents of global change. Important controlling factors include climate controls on the length and intensity of the fire season, fuel availability, and fire management, which are already anthropogenically perturbed today and are predicted to change further in the future. An improved understanding of future fires will contribute to an improved ability to project future anthropogenic climate change, as changes in fire activity will in turn impact climate. In the present study we used a coupled-carbon-fire model to investigate how changes in climate, demography, and land use may alter fire emissions. We used climate projections following the SRES A1B scenario from two different climate models (ECHAM5/MPI-OM and CCSM) and changes in population. Land use and harvest rates were prescribed according to the RCP 45 scenario. In response to the combined effect of all these drivers, our model estimated, depending on our choice of climate projection, an increase in future (2075-2099) fire carbon emissions by 17 and 62% compared to present day (1985-2009). The largest increase in fire emissions was predicted for Southern Hemisphere South America for both climate projections. For Northern Hemisphere Africa, a region that contributed significantly to the global total fire carbon emissions, the response varied between a decrease and an increase depending on the climate projection. We disentangled the contribution of the single forcing factors to the overall response by conducting an additional set of simulations in which each factor was individually held constant at pre-industrial levels. The two different projections of future climate change evaluated in this study led to increases in global fire carbon emissions by 22% (CCSM) and 66% (ECHAM5/MPI-OM). The RCP 45 projection of harvest and land use led to a decrease in fire carbon emissions by -5%. The RCP 26 and RCP 60 harvest and landuse projections caused decreases around -20%. Changes in human ignition led to an increase of 20%. When we also included changes in fire management efforts to suppress fires in densely populated areas, global fire carbon emission decreased by -6% in response to changes in population density. We concluded from this study that changes in fire emissions in the future are controlled by multiple interacting factors. Although changes in climate led to an increase in future fire emissions this could be globally counterbalanced by coupled changes in land use, harvest, and demography.

10Be in late deglacial climate simulated by ECHAM5-HAM - Part 2: Isolating the solar signal from 10Be deposition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heikkilä, U.; Shi, X.; Phipps, S. J.; Smith, A. M.

2013-10-01

This study investigates the effect of deglacial climate on the deposition of the solar proxy 10Be globally, and at two specific locations, the GRIP site at Summit, Central Greenland, and the Law Dome site in coastal Antarctica. The deglacial climate is represented by three 30 yr time slice simulations of 10 000 BP (years before present = 1950 CE), 11 000 BP and 12 000 BP, compared with a preindustrial control simulation. The model used is the ECHAM5-HAM atmospheric aerosol-climate model, driven with sea surface temperatures and sea ice cover simulated using the CSIRO Mk3L coupled climate system model. The focus is on isolating the 10Be production signal, driven by solar variability, from the weather or climate driven noise in the 10Be deposition flux during different stages of climate. The production signal varies on lower frequencies, dominated by the 11yr solar cycle within the 30 yr time scale of these experiments. The climatic noise is of higher frequencies. We first apply empirical orthogonal functions (EOF) analysis to global 10Be deposition on the annual scale and find that the first principal component, consisting of the spatial pattern of mean 10Be deposition and the temporally varying solar signal, explains 64% of the variability. The following principal components are closely related to those of precipitation. Then, we apply ensemble empirical decomposition (EEMD) analysis on the time series of 10Be deposition at GRIP and at Law Dome, which is an effective method for adaptively decomposing the time series into different frequency components. The low frequency components and the long term trend represent production and have reduced noise compared to the entire frequency spectrum of the deposition. The high frequency components represent climate driven noise related to the seasonal cycle of e.g. precipitation and are closely connected to high frequencies of precipitation. These results firstly show that the 10Be atmospheric production signal is preserved in the deposition flux to surface even during climates very different from today's both in global data and at two specific locations. Secondly, noise can be effectively reduced from 10Be deposition data by simply applying the EOF analysis in the case of a reasonably large number of available data sets, or by decomposing the individual data sets to filter out high-frequency fluctuations.

GPU-accelerated atmospheric chemical kinetics in the ECHAM/MESSy (EMAC) Earth system model (version 2.52)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alvanos, Michail; Christoudias, Theodoros

2017-10-01

This paper presents an application of GPU accelerators in Earth system modeling. We focus on atmospheric chemical kinetics, one of the most computationally intensive tasks in climate-chemistry model simulations. We developed a software package that automatically generates CUDA kernels to numerically integrate atmospheric chemical kinetics in the global climate model ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC), used to study climate change and air quality scenarios. A source-to-source compiler outputs a CUDA-compatible kernel by parsing the FORTRAN code generated by the Kinetic PreProcessor (KPP) general analysis tool. All Rosenbrock methods that are available in the KPP numerical library are supported.Performance evaluation, using Fermi and Pascal CUDA-enabled GPU accelerators, shows achieved speed-ups of 4. 5 × and 20. 4 × , respectively, of the kernel execution time. A node-to-node real-world production performance comparison shows a 1. 75 × speed-up over the non-accelerated application using the KPP three-stage Rosenbrock solver. We provide a detailed description of the code optimizations used to improve the performance including memory optimizations, control code simplification, and reduction of idle time. The accuracy and correctness of the accelerated implementation are evaluated by comparing to the CPU-only code of the application. The median relative difference is found to be less than 0.000000001 % when comparing the output of the accelerated kernel the CPU-only code.The approach followed, including the computational workload division, and the developed GPU solver code can potentially be used as the basis for hardware acceleration of numerous geoscientific models that rely on KPP for atmospheric chemical kinetics applications.

Unveiling aerosol-cloud interactions - Part 2: Minimising the effects of aerosol swelling and wet scavenging in ECHAM6-HAM2 for comparison to satellite data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neubauer, David; Christensen, Matthew W.; Poulsen, Caroline A.; Lohmann, Ulrike

2017-11-01

Aerosol-cloud interactions (ACIs) are uncertain and the estimates of the ACI effective radiative forcing (ERFaci) magnitude show a large variability. Within the Aerosol_cci project the susceptibility of cloud properties to changes in aerosol properties is derived from the high-resolution AATSR (Advanced Along-Track Scanning Radiometer) data set using the Cloud-Aerosol Pairing Algorithm (CAPA) (as described in our companion paper) and compared to susceptibilities from the global aerosol climate model ECHAM6-HAM2 and MODIS-CERES (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer - Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System) data. For ECHAM6-HAM2 the dry aerosol is analysed to mimic the effect of CAPA. Furthermore the analysis is done for different environmental regimes. The aerosol-liquid water path relationship in ECHAM6-HAM2 is systematically stronger than in AATSR-CAPA data and cannot be explained by an overestimation of autoconversion when using diagnostic precipitation but rather by aerosol swelling in regions where humidity is high and clouds are present. When aerosol water is removed from the analysis in ECHAM6-HAM2 the strength of the susceptibilities of liquid water path, cloud droplet number concentration and cloud albedo as well as ERFaci agree much better with those of AATSR-CAPA or MODIS-CERES. When comparing satellite-derived to model-derived susceptibilities, this study finds it more appropriate to use dry aerosol in the computation of model susceptibilities. We further find that the statistical relationships inferred from different satellite sensors (AATSR-CAPA vs. MODIS-CERES) as well as from ECHAM6-HAM2 are not always of the same sign for the tested environmental conditions. In particular the susceptibility of the liquid water path is negative in non-raining scenes for MODIS-CERES but positive for AATSR-CAPA and ECHAM6-HAM2. Feedback processes like cloud-top entrainment that are missing or not well represented in the model are therefore not well constrained by satellite observations. In addition to aerosol swelling, wet scavenging and aerosol processing have an impact on liquid water path, cloud albedo and cloud droplet number susceptibilities. Aerosol processing leads to negative liquid water path susceptibilities to changes in aerosol index (AI) in ECHAM6-HAM2, likely due to aerosol-size changes by aerosol processing. Our results indicate that for statistical analysis of aerosol-cloud interactions the unwanted effects of aerosol swelling, wet scavenging and aerosol processing need to be minimised when computing susceptibilities of cloud variables to changes in aerosol.

Ocean Dynamics in the Key Regions of North Atlantic-Arctic Exchanges: Evaluation of Global Multi-Resolution FESOM and CMIP-type INMCM Models with Long-Term Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beszczynska-Moeller, A.; Gürses, Ö.; Sidorenko, D.; Goessling, H.; Volodin, E. M.; Gritsun, A.; Iakovlev, N. G.; Andrzejewski, J.

2017-12-01

Enhancing the fidelity of climate models in the Arctic and North Atlantic in order to improve Arctic predictions requires better understanding of the underlying causes of common biases. The main focus of the ERA.Net project NAtMAP (Amending North Atlantic Model Biases to Improve Arctic Predictions) is on the dynamics of the key regions connecting the Arctic and the North Atlantic climate. The study aims not only at increased model realism, but also at a deeper understanding of North Atlantic-Arctic links and their contribution to Arctic predictability. Two complementary approaches employing different global coupled climate models, ECHAM6-FESOM and INMCM4/5, were adopted. The first approach is based on a recent development of climate models with ocean components based on unstructured meshes, allowing to resolve eddies and narrow boundary currents in the most crucial regions while keeping a moderate resolution elsewhere. The multi-resolution sea ice-ocean component of ECHAM6-FESOM allows studying the benefits of very high resolution in key areas of the North Atlantic. An alternative approach to address the North Atlantic and Arctic biases is also tried by tuning the performance of the relevant sub-grid-scale parameterizations in eddy resolving version the CMIP5 climate model INMCM4. Using long-term in situ and satellite observations and available climatologies we attempt to evaluate to what extent a higher resolution, allowing the explicit representation of eddies and narrow boundary currents in the North Atlantic and Nordic Seas, can alleviate the common model errors. The effects of better resolving the Labrador Sea area on reducing the model bias in surface hydrography and improved representation of ocean currents are addressed. Resolving eddy field in the Greenland Sea is assessed in terms of reducing the deep thermocline bias. The impact of increased resolution on the modeled characteristics of Atlantic water transport into the Arctic is examined with a special focus on separation of Atlantic inflow between Fram Strait and the Barents Sea, lateral exchanges in the Nordic Seas, and a role of eddies in modulating the poleward flow of Atlantic water. We also explore the effects of resolving boundary currents in the Arctic basin on the representation of the adjacent sea ice.

Tuning the climate sensitivity of a global model to match 20th Century warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mauritsen, T.; Roeckner, E.

2015-12-01

A climate models ability to reproduce observed historical warming is sometimes viewed as a measure of quality. Yet, for practical reasons historical warming cannot be considered a purely empirical result of the modelling efforts because the desired result is known in advance and so is a potential target of tuning. Here we explain how the latest edition of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Earth System Model (MPI-ESM1.2) atmospheric model (ECHAM6.3) had its climate sensitivity systematically tuned to about 3 K; the MPI model to be used during CMIP6. This was deliberately done in order to improve the match to observed 20th Century warming over the previous model generation (MPI-ESM, ECHAM6.1) which warmed too much and had a sensitivity of 3.5 K. In the process we identified several controls on model cloud feedback that confirm recently proposed hypotheses concerning trade-wind cumulus and high-latitude mixed-phase clouds. We then evaluate the model fidelity with centennial global warming and discuss the relative importance of climate sensitivity, forcing and ocean heat uptake efficiency in determining the response as well as possible systematic biases. The activity of targeting historical warming during model development is polarizing the modeling community with 35 percent of modelers stating that 20th Century warming was rated very important to decisive, whereas 30 percent would not consider it at all. Likewise, opinions diverge as to which measures are legitimate means for improving the model match to observed warming. These results are from a survey conducted in conjunction with the first WCRP Workshop on Model Tuning in fall 2014 answered by 23 modelers. We argue that tuning or constructing models to match observed warming to some extent is practically unavoidable, and as such, in many cases might as well be done explicitly. For modeling groups that have the capability to tune both their aerosol forcing and climate sensitivity there is now a unique opportunity to explore the bounds of our understanding - a low sensitivity model could be sustained by weak aerosol forcing, and a highly sensitive model could potentially be constructed to match observed warming by strong compensating aerosol cooling. This next natural step could constitute a new paradigm in climate modeling.

Factors controlling the initiation of Snowball Earth events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Voigt, A.

2012-12-01

During the Neoproterozoic glaciations tropical continents were covered by active glaciers that extended down to sea level. To explain these glaciers, the Snowball Earth hypothesis assumes that oceans were completely sea-ice covered during these glaciation, but there is an ongoing debate whether or not some regions of the tropical oceans remained open. In this talk, I will describe past and ongoing climate modelling activities with the comprehensive coupled climate model ECHAM5/MPI-OM that identify and compare factors that control the initiation of Snowball Earth events. I first show that shifting the continents from their present-day location to their Marinoan (635 My BP) low-latitude location increases the planetary albedo, cools the climate, and thereby allows Snowball Earth initiation at higher levels of total solar irradiance and atmospheric CO2. I then present simulations with successively lowered bare sea-ice albedo, disabled sea-ice dynamics, and switched-off ocean heat transport. These simulations show that both lowering the bare sea-ice albedo and disabling sea-ice dynamics increase the critical sea-ice cover in ECHAM5/MPI-OM, but sea-ice dynamics due to strong equatorward sea-ice transport have a much larger influence on the critical CO2. Disabling sea-ice transport allows a state with sea-ice margin at 10 deg latitude by virtue of the Jormungand mechanism. The accumulation of snow on land, in combination with tropical land temperatures below or close to freezing, suggests that tropical land glaciers could easily form in such a state. However, in contrast to aquaplanet simulations without ocean heat transport, there is no sign of a Jormungand hysteresis in the coupled simulations. Ocean heat transport is not responsible for the lack of a Jormungand hysteresis in the coupled simulations. By relating the above findings to previous studies, I will outline promising future avenues of research on the initiation of Snowball Earth events. In particular, an improved understanding and modelling of sea-ice dynamics is needed.ea-ice cover as a function of CO2 for ECHAM5/MPI-OM simulations with high bare sea-ice albedo (black circles), low bare sea-ice albedo (blue squares), low bare sea-ice albedo and disabled sea-ice dynamics (red triangles), and low bare sea-ice albedo, disabled sea-ice dynamics and zero ocean heat transport (green diamonds). All simulations use Marinoan low-latitude continents and a solar constant reduced to 94% of its modern value.

Prognostic parameterization of cloud ice with a single category in the aerosol-climate model ECHAM(v6.3.0)-HAM(v2.3)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dietlicher, Remo; Neubauer, David; Lohmann, Ulrike

2018-04-01

A new scheme for stratiform cloud microphysics has been implemented in the ECHAM6-HAM2 general circulation model. It features a widely used description of cloud water with two categories for cloud droplets and raindrops. The unique aspect of the new scheme is the break with the traditional approach to describe cloud ice analogously. Here we parameterize cloud ice by a single category that predicts bulk particle properties (P3). This method has already been applied in a regional model and most recently also in the Community Atmosphere Model 5 (CAM5). A single cloud ice category does not rely on heuristic conversion rates from one category to another. Therefore, it is conceptually easier and closer to first principles. This work shows that a single category is a viable approach to describe cloud ice in climate models. Prognostic representation of sedimentation is achieved by a nested approach for sub-stepping the cloud microphysics scheme. This yields good results in terms of accuracy and performance as compared to simulations with high temporal resolution. Furthermore, the new scheme allows for a competition between various cloud processes and is thus able to unbiasedly represent the ice formation pathway from nucleation to growth by vapor deposition and collisions to sedimentation. Specific aspects of the P3 method are evaluated. We could not produce a purely stratiform cloud where rime growth dominates growth by vapor deposition and conclude that the lack of appropriate conditions renders the prognostic parameters associated with the rime properties unnecessary. Limitations inherent in a single category are examined.

Potential Carbon Stock Changes in Arizona's Ecosystems Due to Projected Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Finley, B. K.; Ironside, K.; Hungate, B. A.; Hurteau, M.; Koch, G. W.

2011-12-01

Climate change can alter the role of plants and soils as sources or sinks of atmospheric carbon dioxide and result in changes in long-term carbon storage. To understand the sensitivity of Arizona's ecosystems to climate change, we quantified the present carbon stocks in Arizona's major ecosystem types using the NASA-CASA (Carnegie Ames Stanford Approach) model. Carbon stocks for each vegetation type included surface mineral soil, dead wood litter, standing wood and live leaf biomass. The total Arizona ecosystem carbon stock is presently 1775 MMtC, 545 MMtC of which is in Pinus ponderosa and Pinus edulis forests and woodlands. Evergreen forest vegetation, predominately Pinus ponderosa, has the largest current C density at 11.3 kgC/m2, while Pinus edulis woodlands have a C density of 6.0 kgC/m2. A change in climate will impact the suitable range for each tree species, and consequentially the amount of C stored. Present habitat ranges for these tree species are projected to have widespread mortality and likely will be replaced by herbaceous species, resulting in a loss of C stored. We evaluated the C storage implications over the 2010 to 2099 period of climate change based on output from GCMs with contrasting projections for the southwestern US: MPI-ECHAM5, which projects warming and reduced precipitation, and UKMO-HadGEM, which projects warming and increased precipitation. These projected changes are end points of a spectrum of possible future climate scenarios. The vegetation distribution models used describe potential suitable habitat, and we assumed that the growth rate for each vegetation type would be one-third of the way to full C density for each 30 year period up to 2099. With increasing temperature and decreasing precipitation predictions under the MPI-ECHAM5 model, P. ponderosa and P. edulis vegetation show a decrease in carbon stored from 545 MMtC presently to 116 MMtC. With the combined increase in temperature and precipitation, C storage in these vegetation types is projected to increase to 808 MMtC. Our results indicate that future C storage in Arizona is highly dependent on precipitation. Given that most climate models for the Southwest predict a more arid future, it is likely that C storage will decrease in Arizona ecosystems, as it has in response to recent droughts, reducing mitigation of rising human emissions.

Assessment of regional climate change and development of climate adaptation decision aids in the Southwestern US

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Darmenova, K.; Higgins, G.; Kiley, H.; Apling, D.

2010-12-01

Current General Circulation Models (GCMs) provide a valuable estimate of both natural and anthropogenic climate changes and variability on global scales. At the same time, future climate projections calculated with GCMs are not of sufficient spatial resolution to address regional needs. Many climate impact models require information at scales of 50 km or less, so dynamical downscaling is often used to estimate the smaller-scale information based on larger scale GCM output. To address current deficiencies in local planning and decision making with respect to regional climate change, our research is focused on performing a dynamical downscaling with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and developing decision aids that translate the regional climate data into actionable information for users. Our methodology involves development of climatological indices of extreme weather and heating/cooling degree days based on WRF ensemble runs initialized with the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis and the European Center/Hamburg Model (ECHAM5). Results indicate that the downscale simulations provide the necessary detailed output required by state and local governments and the private sector to develop climate adaptation plans. In addition we evaluated the WRF performance in long-term climate simulations over the Southwestern US and validated against observational datasets.

Uncertainties in the Modelled CO2 Threshold for Antarctic Glaciation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gasson, E.; Lunt, D. J.; DeConto, R.; Goldner, A.; Heinemann, M.; Huber, M.; LeGrande, A. N.; Pollard, D.; Sagoo, N.; Siddall, M.;

Climate model uncertainty in impact assessments for agriculture: A multi-ensemble case study on maize in sub-Saharan Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dale, Amy; Fant, Charles; Strzepek, Kenneth; Lickley, Megan; Solomon, Susan

2017-03-01

We present maize production in sub-Saharan Africa as a case study in the exploration of how uncertainties in global climate change, as reflected in projections from a range of climate model ensembles, influence climate impact assessments for agriculture. The crop model AquaCrop-OS (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations) was modified to run on a 2° × 2° grid and coupled to 122 climate model projections from multi-model ensembles for three emission scenarios (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 [CMIP3] SRES A1B and CMIP5 Representative Concentration Pathway [RCP] scenarios 4.5 and 8.5) as well as two "within-model" ensembles (NCAR CCSM3 and ECHAM5/MPI-OM) designed to capture internal variability (i.e., uncertainty due to chaos in the climate system). In spite of high uncertainty, most notably in the high-producing semi-arid zones, we observed robust regional and sub-regional trends across all ensembles. In agreement with previous work, we project widespread yield losses in the Sahel region and Southern Africa, resilience in Central Africa, and sub-regional increases in East Africa and at the southern tip of the continent. Spatial patterns of yield losses corresponded with spatial patterns of aridity increases, which were explicitly evaluated. Internal variability was a major source of uncertainty in both within-model and between-model ensembles and explained the majority of the spatial distribution of uncertainty in yield projections. Projected climate change impacts on maize production in different regions and nations ranged from near-zero or positive (upper quartile estimates) to substantially negative (lower quartile estimates), highlighting a need for risk management strategies that are adaptive and robust to uncertainty.

Downscaling of sea level and fluxes in the Malacca and Singapore Straits using A2 scenario projections of AR4 GCMs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tkalich, Pavel; Koshebutsky, Volodymyr; Maderich, Vladimir; Thompson, Bijoy

2013-04-01

IPCC-coordinated work has been completed within Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) to project climate and ocean variables for the 21st century using coupled atmospheric-ocean General Circulation Models (GCMs). Resolution of the GCMs is not sufficient to resolve local features of narrow Malacca and Singapore Straits, having complex coastal line and bathymetry; therefore, dynamical downscaling of ocean variables from the global grid to the regional scale is advisable using ocean models, such as Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS). ROMS is customized for the domain centered on the Singapore and Malacca Straits, extending from 98°E to 109°E and 6°S to 14°N. Following IPCC methodology, the modelling is done for the past reference period 1961-1990, and then for the 21st century projections; subsequently, established past and projected trends and variability of ocean parameters are inter-compared. Boundary conditions for the past reference period are extracted from Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA), while the projections are made using A2 scenario runs of ECHAM5 and CCSM3 GCMs. Atmospheric forcing for ROMS is downscaled with WRF using ERA-40 dataset for the past period, and outputs of atmospheric variables of respective GCMs for the projections. ROMS-downscaled regional sea level change during 1961-1990, corrected for the global thermosteric effect, land-ice melting and Global Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) effect, corresponds to a mean total trend of 1.52 mm/year, which is higher than the global estimate 1.25 mm/year and observed global sea-level rise (1.44 mm/year) for the same period. Local linear trend in the Singapore Strait (0.9 mm/year) corresponds to the observed trend at Victoria Dock tide gauge (1.1 mm/year) for the past period. Mean discharges through the Karimata, Malacca and Singapore Straits are 0.9, 0.21 and 0.12 Sv, respectively, fall in the range of observations and recent model estimates. A2 scenario projections using ROMS-ECHAM5 and ROMS-CCSM3 for 2011-2099 suggest that linear trends of sea level rise in Singapore Strait are 5.4 and 6.1 mm/year, respectively. These values fall in the range of global estimates of 3.0-8.5 mm/year. Mean sea level rise is expected around 0.43 m (ROMS-ECHAM5) and 0.47 m (ROMS-CCSM3) in 2099 relative to mean sea level in 2011. These values are greater than median estimation of global sea rise 0.32 under scenario A2. Mean discharge through Singapore Strait for scenario A2 during 2011 to 2099 is projected to be 0.062 Sv for ROMS-ECHAM5 and 0.11 Sv for ROMS-CCSM3. These projections are comparable to the discharges during 1961-1990 (0.065 and 0.11 Sv, respectively). The linear trend in discharges for the period 2011-2099 is relatively small with statistical confidence level being less than 95%. An important feature computationally discovered is the transient reversal of flow in the Singapore Strait during southwest monsoon. In general, the reversals of flow in ROMS-ECHAM5 and ROMS-CCSM3 are observed respectively to occur 1/3 and 1/5 of the whole period.

10Be in late deglacial climate simulated by ECHAM5-HAM - Part 2: Isolating the solar signal from 10Be deposition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heikkilä, U.; Shi, X.; Phipps, S. J.; Smith, A. M.

2014-04-01

This study investigates the effect of deglacial climate on the deposition of the solar proxy 10Be globally, and at two specific locations, the GRIP site at Summit, Central Greenland, and the Law Dome site in coastal Antarctica. The deglacial climate is represented by three 30 year time slice simulations of 10 000 BP (years before present = 1950 CE), 11 000 and 12 000 BP, compared with a preindustrial control simulation. The model used is the ECHAM5-HAM atmospheric aerosol-climate model, driven with sea-surface temperatures and sea ice cover simulated using the CSIRO Mk3L coupled climate system model. The focus is on isolating the 10Be production signal, driven by solar variability, from the weather- or climate-driven noise in the 10Be deposition flux during different stages of climate. The production signal varies at lower frequencies, dominated by the 11 year solar cycle within the 30 year timescale of these experiments. The climatic noise is of higher frequencies than 11 years during the 30 year period studied. We first apply empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis to global 10Be deposition on the annual scale and find that the first principal component, consisting of the spatial pattern of mean 10Be deposition and the temporally varying solar signal, explains 64% of the variability. The following principal components are closely related to those of precipitation. Then, we apply ensemble empirical decomposition (EEMD) analysis to the time series of 10Be deposition at GRIP and at Law Dome, which is an effective method for adaptively decomposing the time series into different frequency components. The low-frequency components and the long-term trend represent production and have reduced noise compared to the entire frequency spectrum of the deposition. The high-frequency components represent climate-driven noise related to the seasonal cycle of e.g. precipitation and are closely connected to high frequencies of precipitation. These results firstly show that the 10Be atmospheric production signal is preserved in the deposition flux to surface even during climates very different from today's both in global data and at two specific locations. Secondly, noise can be effectively reduced from 10Be deposition data by simply applying the EOF analysis in the case of a reasonably large number of available data sets, or by decomposing the individual data sets to filter out high-frequency fluctuations.

Simulating Climate Change in Ireland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nolan, P.; Lynch, P.

2012-04-01

At the Meteorology & Climate Centre at University College Dublin, we are using the CLM-Community's COSMO-CLM Regional Climate Model (RCM) and the WRF RCM (developed at NCAR) to simulate the climate of Ireland at high spatial resolution. To address the issue of model uncertainty, a Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) approach is used. The ensemble method uses different RCMs, driven by several Global Climate Models (GCMs), to simulate climate change. Through the MME approach, the uncertainty in the RCM projections is quantified, enabling us to estimate the probability density function of predicted changes, and providing a measure of confidence in the predictions. The RCMs were validated by performing a 20-year simulation of the Irish climate (1981-2000), driven by ECMWF ERA-40 global re-analysis data, and comparing the output to observations. Results confirm that the output of the RCMs exhibit reasonable and realistic features as documented in the historical data record. Projections for the future Irish climate were generated by downscaling the Max Planck Institute's ECHAM5 GCM, the UK Met Office HadGEM2-ES GCM and the CGCM3.1 GCM from the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling. Simulations were run for a reference period 1961-2000 and future period 2021-2060. The future climate was simulated using the A1B, A2, B1, RCP 4.5 & RCP 8.5 greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Results for the downscaled simulations show a substantial overall increase in precipitation and wind speed for the future winter months and a decrease during the summer months. The predicted annual change in temperature is approximately 1.1°C over Ireland. To date, all RCM projections are in general agreement, thus increasing our confidence in the robustness of the results.

Evaluation of Multi-Model Ensemble System for Seasonal and Monthly Prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Q.; Van den Dool, H. M.

2013-12-01

Since August 2011, the realtime seasonal forecasts of U.S. National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) have been made on 8th of each month by NCEP Climate Prediction Center (CPC). During the first year, the participating models were NCEP/CFSv1&2, GFDL/CM2.2, NCAR/U.Miami/COLA/CCSM3, NASA/GEOS5, IRI/ ECHAM-a & ECHAM-f for the realtime NMME forecast. The Canadian Meteorological Center CanCM3 and CM4 replaced the CFSv1 and IRI's models in the second year. The NMME team at CPC collects three variables, including precipitation, 2-meter temperature and sea surface temperature from each modeling center on a 1x1 global grid, removes systematic errors, makes the grand ensemble mean with equal weight for each model and constructs a probability forecast with equal weight for each member. The team then provides the NMME forecast to the operational CPC forecaster responsible for the seasonal and monthly outlook each month. Verification of the seasonal and monthly prediction from NMME is conducted by calculating the anomaly correlation (AC) from the 30-year hindcasts (1982-2011) of individual model and NMME ensemble. The motivation of this study is to provide skill benchmarks for future improvements of the NMME seasonal and monthly prediction system. The experimental (Phase I) stage of the project already supplies routine guidance to users of the NMME forecasts.

The Madden-Julian oscillation in ECHAM4 coupled and uncoupled general circulation models

DOE PAGES

Sperber, Kenneth R.; Gualdi, Silvio; Legutke, Stephanie; ...

2005-06-29

The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) dominates tropical variability on timescales of 30–70 days. During the boreal winter/spring, it is manifested as an eastward propagating disturbance, with a strong convective signature over the eastern hemisphere. The space–time structure of the MJO is analyzed using simulations with the ECHAM4 atmospheric general circulation model run with observed monthly mean sea-surface temperatures (SSTs), and coupled to three different ocean models. The coherence of the eastward propagation of MJO convection is sensitive to the ocean model to which ECHAM4 is coupled. For ECHAM4/OPYC and ECHO-G, models for which ~100 years of daily data is available, Montemore » Carlo sampling indicates that their metrics of eastward propagation are different at the 1% significance level. The flux-adjusted coupled simulations, ECHAM4/OPYC and ECHO-G, maintain a more realistic mean-state, and have a more realistic MJO simulation than the nonadjusted scale interaction experiment (SINTEX) coupled runs. The SINTEX model exhibits a cold bias in Indian Ocean and tropical West Pacific Ocean sea-surface temperature of ~0.5°C. This cold bias affects the distribution of time-mean convection over the tropical eastern hemisphere. Furthermore, the eastward propagation of MJO convection in this model is not as coherent as in the two models that used flux adjustment or when compared to an integration of ECHAM4 with prescribed observed SST. This result suggests that simulating a realistic basic state is at least as important as air–sea interaction for organizing the MJO. While all of the coupled models simulate the warm (cold) SST anomalies that precede (succeed) the MJO convection, the interaction of the components of the net surface heat flux that lead to these anomalies are different over the Indian Ocean. The ECHAM4/OPYC model in which the atmospheric model is run at a horizontal resolution of T42, has eastward propagating zonal wind anomalies and latent heat flux anomalies. However, the integrations with ECHO-G and SINTEX, which used T30 atmospheres, produce westward propagation of the latent heat flux anomalies, contrary to reanalysis. Furthermore, it is suggested that the differing ability of the models to represent the near-surface westerlies over the Indian Ocean is related to the different horizontal resolutions of the atmospheric model employed.« less

Impact of climate change on soil thermal and moisture regimes in Serbia: An analysis with data from regional climate simulations under SRES-A1B.

PubMed

Mihailović, D T; Drešković, N; Arsenić, I; Ćirić, V; Djurdjević, V; Mimić, G; Pap, I; Balaž, I

2016-11-15

We considered temporal and spatial variations to the thermal and moisture regimes of the most common RSGs (Reference Soil Groups) in Serbia under the A1B scenario for the 2021-2050 and 2071-2100 periods, with respect to the 1961-1990 period. We utilized dynamically downscaled global climate simulations from the ECHAM5 model using the coupled regional climate model EBU-POM (Eta Belgrade University-Princeton Ocean Model). We analysed the soil temperature and moisture time series using simple statistics and a Kolmogorov complexity (KC) analysis. The corresponding metrics were calculated for 150 sites. In the future, warmer and drier regimes can be expected for all RSGs in Serbia. The calculated soil temperature and moisture variations include increases in the mean annual soil temperature (up to 3.8°C) and decreases in the mean annual soil moisture (up to 11.3%). Based on the KC values, the soils in Serbia are classified with respect to climate change impacts as (1) less sensitive (Vertisols, Umbrisols and Dystric Cambisols) or (2) more sensitive (Chernozems, Eutric Cambisols and Planosols). Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Exceptional warming in the Western Pacific-Indian Ocean warm pool has contributed to more frequent droughts in eastern Africa

USGS Publications Warehouse

Funk, Christopher C.; Peterson, Thomas C.; Stott, Peter A.; Herring, Stephanie

2012-01-01

In 2011, East Africa faced a tragic food crisis that led to famine conditions in parts of Somalia and severe food shortages in parts of Ethiopia and Somalia. While many nonclimatic factors contributed to this crisis (high global food prices, political instability, and chronic poverty, among others) failed rains in both the boreal winter of 2010/11 and the boreal spring of 2011 played a critical role. The back-to-back failures of these rains, which were linked to the dominant La Niña climate and warm SSTs in the central and southeastern Indian Ocean, were particularly problematic since they followed poor rainfall during the spring and summer of 2008 and 2009. In fact, in parts of East Africa, in recent years, there has been a substantial increase in the number of below-normal rainy seasons, which may be related to the warming of the western Pacific and Indian Oceans (for more details, see Funk et al. 2008; Williams and Funk 2011; Williams et al. 2011; Lyon and DeWitt 2012). The basic argument of this work is that recent warming in the Indian–Pacific warm pool (IPWP) enhances the export of geopotential height energy from the warm pool, which tends to produce subsidence across eastern Africa and reduce onshore moisture transports. The general pattern of this disruption has been supported by canonical correlation analyzes and numerical experiments with the Community Atmosphere Model (Funk et al. 2008), diagnostic evaluations of reanalysis data (Williams and Funk 2011; Williams et al. 2011), and SST-driven experiments with ECHAM4.5, ECHAM5, and the Community Climate Model version 3 (CCM3.6) (Lyon and DeWitt 2012).

Heinrich events simulated across the glacial

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ziemen, F. A.; Mikolajewicz, U.

2015-12-01

Heinrich events are among the most prominent climate change events recorded in proxies across the northern hemisphere. They are the archetype of ice sheet — climate interactions on millennial time scales. Nevertheless, the exact mechanisms that cause Heinrich events are still under discussion, and their climatic consequences are far from being fully understood. We contribute to answering the open questions by studying Heinrich events in a coupled ice sheet model (ISM) atmosphere-ocean-vegetation general circulation model (AOVGCM) framework, where this variability occurs as part of the model generated internal variability. The setup consists of a northern hemisphere setup of the modified Parallel Ice Sheet Model (mPISM) coupled to the global AOVGCM ECHAM5/MPIOM/LPJ. The simulations were performed fully coupled and with transient orbital and greenhouse gas forcing. They span from several millennia before the last glacial maximum into the deglaciation. We analyze simulations where the ISM is coupled asynchronously to the AOVGCM and simulations where the ISM and the ocean model are coupled synchronously and the atmosphere model is coupled asynchronously to them. The modeled Heinrich events show a marked influence of the ice discharge on the Atlantic circulation and heat transport.

Climate change and watershed mercury export: a multiple projection and model analysis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Golden, Heather E.; Knightes, Christopher D.; Conrads, Paul; Feaster, Toby D.; Davis, Gary M.; Benedict, Stephen T.; Bradley, Paul M.

2013-01-01

Future shifts in climatic conditions may impact watershed mercury (Hg) dynamics and transport. An ensemble of watershed models was applied in the present study to simulate and evaluate the responses of hydrological and total Hg (THg) fluxes from the landscape to the watershed outlet and in-stream THg concentrations to contrasting climate change projections for a watershed in the southeastern coastal plain of the United States. Simulations were conducted under stationary atmospheric deposition and land cover conditions to explicitly evaluate the effect of projected precipitation and temperature on watershed Hg export (i.e., the flux of Hg at the watershed outlet). Based on downscaled inputs from 2 global circulation models that capture extremes of projected wet (Community Climate System Model, Ver 3 [CCSM3]) and dry (ECHAM4/HOPE-G [ECHO]) conditions for this region, watershed model simulation results suggest a decrease of approximately 19% in ensemble-averaged mean annual watershed THg fluxes using the ECHO climate-change model and an increase of approximately 5% in THg fluxes with the CCSM3 model. Ensemble-averaged mean annual ECHO in-stream THg concentrations increased 20%, while those of CCSM3 decreased by 9% between the baseline and projected simulation periods. Watershed model simulation results using both climate change models suggest that monthly watershed THg fluxes increase during the summer, when projected flow is higher than baseline conditions. The present study's multiple watershed model approach underscores the uncertainty associated with climate change response projections and their use in climate change management decisions. Thus, single-model predictions can be misleading, particularly in developmental stages of watershed Hg modeling.

Quantifying the role of ocean initial conditions in decadal prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matei, D.; Pohlmann, H.; Müller, W.; Haak, H.; Jungclaus, J.; Marotzke, J.

2009-04-01

The forecast skill of decadal climate predictions is investigated using two different initialization strategies. First we apply an assimilation of ocean synthesis data provided by the GECCO project (Köhl and Stammer 2008) as initial conditions for the coupled model ECHAM5/MPI-OM. The results show promising skill up to decadal time scales particularly over the North Atlantic (see also Pohlmann et al. 2009). However, mismatches between the ocean climates of GECCO and the MPI-OM model may lead to inconsistencies in the representation of water masses. Therefore, we pursue an alternative approach to the representation of the observed North Atlantic climate for the period 1948-2007. Using the same MPI-OM ocean model as in the coupled system, we perform an ensemble of four NCEP integrations. The ensemble mean temperature and salinity anomalies are then nudged into the coupled model, followed by hindcast/forecast experiments. The model gives dynamically consistent three-dimensional temperature and salinity fields, thereby avoiding the problems of model drift that were encountered when the assimilation experiment was only driven by reconstructed SSTs (Keenlyside et al. 2008, Pohlmann et al. 2009). Differences between the two assimilation approaches are discussed by comparing them with the observational data in key regions and processes, such as North Atlantic and Tropical Pacific climate, MOC variability, Subpolar Gyre variability.

The on-line coupled atmospheric chemistry model system MECO(n) - Part 5: Expanding the Multi-Model-Driver (MMD v2.0) for 2-way data exchange including data interpolation via GRID (v1.0)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kerkweg, Astrid; Hofmann, Christiane; Jöckel, Patrick; Mertens, Mariano; Pante, Gregor

2018-03-01

As part of the Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy), the Multi-Model-Driver (MMD v1.0) was developed to couple online the regional Consortium for Small-scale Modeling (COSMO) model into a driving model, which can be either the regional COSMO model or the global European Centre Hamburg general circulation model (ECHAM) (see Part 2 of the model documentation). The coupled system is called MECO(n), i.e., MESSy-fied ECHAM and COSMO models nested n times. In this article, which is part of the model documentation of the MECO(n) system, the second generation of MMD is introduced. MMD comprises the message-passing infrastructure required for the parallel execution (multiple programme multiple data, MPMD) of different models and the communication of the individual model instances, i.e. between the driving and the driven models. Initially, the MMD library was developed for a one-way coupling between the global chemistry-climate ECHAM/MESSy atmospheric chemistry (EMAC) model and an arbitrary number of (optionally cascaded) instances of the regional chemistry-climate model COSMO/MESSy. Thus, MMD (v1.0) provided only functions for unidirectional data transfer, i.e. from the larger-scale to the smaller-scale models.Soon, extended applications requiring data transfer from the small-scale model back to the larger-scale model became of interest. For instance, the original fields of the larger-scale model can directly be compared to the upscaled small-scale fields to analyse the improvements gained through the small-scale calculations, after the results are upscaled. Moreover, the fields originating from the two different models might be fed into the same diagnostic tool, e.g. the online calculation of the radiative forcing calculated consistently with the same radiation scheme. Last but not least, enabling the two-way data transfer between two models is the first important step on the way to a fully dynamical and chemical two-way coupling of the various model instances.In MMD (v1.0), interpolation between the base model grids is performed via the COSMO preprocessing tool INT2LM, which was implemented into the MMD submodel for online interpolation, specifically for mapping onto the rotated COSMO grid. A more flexible algorithm is required for the backward mapping. Thus, MMD (v2.0) uses the new MESSy submodel GRID for the generalised definition of arbitrary grids and for the transformation of data between them.In this article, we explain the basics of the MMD expansion and the newly developed generic MESSy submodel GRID (v1.0) and show some examples of the abovementioned applications.

Scales of variability of black carbon plumes and their dependence on resolution of ECHAM6-HAM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weigum, Natalie; Stier, Philip; Schutgens, Nick; Kipling, Zak

2015-04-01

Prediction of the aerosol effect on climate depends on the ability of three-dimensional numerical models to accurately estimate aerosol properties. However, a limitation of traditional grid-based models is their inability to resolve variability on scales smaller than a grid box. Past research has shown that significant aerosol variability exists on scales smaller than these grid-boxes, which can lead to discrepancies between observations and aerosol models. The aim of this study is to understand how a global climate model's (GCM) inability to resolve sub-grid scale variability affects simulations of important aerosol features. This problem is addressed by comparing observed black carbon (BC) plume scales from the HIPPO aircraft campaign to those simulated by ECHAM-HAM GCM, and testing how model resolution affects these scales. This study additionally investigates how model resolution affects BC variability in remote and near-source regions. These issues are examined using three different approaches: comparison of observed and simulated along-flight-track plume scales, two-dimensional autocorrelation analysis, and 3-dimensional plume analysis. We find that the degree to which GCMs resolve variability can have a significant impact on the scales of BC plumes, and it is important for models to capture the scales of aerosol plume structures, which account for a large degree of aerosol variability. In this presentation, we will provide further results from the three analysis techniques along with a summary of the implication of these results on future aerosol model development.

Uncertainty associated with convective wet removal of entrained aerosols in a global climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Croft, B.; Pierce, J. R.; Martin, R. V.; Hoose, C.; Lohmann, U.

2012-11-01

The uncertainties associated with the wet removal of aerosols entrained above convective cloud bases are investigated in a global aerosol-climate model (ECHAM5-HAM) under a set of limiting assumptions for the wet removal of the entrained aerosols. The limiting assumptions for the wet removal of entrained aerosols are negligible scavenging and vigorous scavenging (either through activation, with size-dependent impaction scavenging, or with the prescribed fractions of the standard model). To facilitate this process-based study, an explicit representation of cloud-droplet-borne and ice-crystal-borne aerosol mass and number, for the purpose of wet removal, is introduced into the ECHAM5-HAM model. This replaces and is compared with the prescribed cloud-droplet-borne and ice-crystal-borne aerosol fraction scavenging scheme of the standard model. A 20% to 35% uncertainty in simulated global, annual mean aerosol mass burdens and optical depth (AOD) is attributed to different assumptions for the wet removal of aerosols entrained above convective cloud bases. Assumptions about the removal of aerosols entrained above convective cloud bases control modeled upper tropospheric aerosol concentrations by as much as one order of magnitude. Simulated aerosols entrained above convective cloud bases contribute 20% to 50% of modeled global, annual mean aerosol mass convective wet deposition (about 5% to 10% of the total dry and wet deposition), depending on the aerosol species, when including wet scavenging of those entrained aerosols (either by activation, size-dependent impaction, or with the prescribed fraction scheme). Among the simulations, the prescribed fraction and size-dependent impaction schemes yield the largest global, annual mean aerosol mass convective wet deposition (by about two-fold). However, the prescribed fraction scheme has more vigorous convective mixed-phase wet removal (by two to five-fold relative to the size-dependent impaction scheme) since nearly all entrained accumulation and coarse mode aerosols are assumed to be cloud-droplet borne or ice-crystal borne, and evaporation due to the Bergeron-Findeisen process is neglected. The simulated convective wet scavenging of entrained accumulation and coarse mode aerosols has feedbacks on new particle formation and the number of Aitken mode aerosols, which control stratiform and convective cloud droplet number concentrations and yield precipitation changes in the ECHAM5-HAM model. However, the geographic distribution of aerosol annual mean convective wet deposition change in the model is driven by changes to the assumptions regarding the scavenging of aerosols entrained above cloud bases rather than by precipitation changes, except for sea salt deposition in the tropics. Uncertainty in the seasonal, regional cycles of AOD due to assumptions about entrained aerosol wet scavenging is similar in magnitude to the estimated error in the AOD retrievals. The uncertainty in aerosol concentrations, burdens, and AOD attributed to different assumptions for the wet scavenging of aerosols entrained above convective cloud bases in a global model motivates the ongoing need to better understand and model the activation and impaction processes that aerosols undergo after entrainment into convective updrafts.

Climate change and Mediterranean storm tracks: present and future climate simulations of a high-resolution Mediterranean model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hatzaki, M.; Flocas, H. A.; Simmonds, I.; Keay, K.; Giannakopoulos, C.; Brikolas, V.; Kouroutzoglou, J.

2010-09-01

A number of studies suggest that cyclone activity over both hemispheres has changed over the second half of the 20th century. General features include a reduction in the number of cyclones but with an increase in the number of more intense cyclones; as well as a poleward shift in the tracks. Moreover, these features are expected to be projected in the future under global warming conditions. The assessment of the future changes of the cyclonic activity as imposed by global warming conditions is very important since these cyclones can be associated with extreme precipitation conditions, severe storms and floods. This is more important for the Mediterranean that has been found to be more vulnerable to climate change. The main objective of the current study is to better understand and assess future changes in the main characteristics of cyclonic tracks in the Mediterranean. The climatology of the cyclonic tracks includes temporal and spatial variations of frequency, and dynamic and kinematic parameters, such as intensity, size, propagation velocity, as well as trend analysis. For this purpose, the ENEA high resolution model is employed, based on PROTHEUS system composed of the RegCM atmospheric regional model and the MITgcm ocean model, coupled through the OASIS3 flux coupler. These model data became available through the EU Project CIRCE which aims to perform, for the first time, climate change projections with a realistic representation of the Mediterranean Sea. Two experiments are employed; a) the EH5OM_20C3M present climate simulation, where the lateral boundary conditions for the atmosphere (1951-2000) are taken from the ECHAM5-MPIOM 20c3m global simulation (run3) included in the IPCC-AR4, and b) the EH5OM_A1B scenario simulation, where the IPCC-AR4 ECHAM5-MPIOM SRESA1B global simulation (run3) has been used for the period 2001-2050. The identification and tracking of cyclones is performed with the aid of the Melbourne University algorithm (MS algorithm), according to the Lagrangian perspective. MS algorithm characterizes a cyclone only if a vorticity maximum could be connected with a local pressure minimum. This approach is considered to be crucial, since open lows are also incorporated into the storm life-cycle, preventing possible inappropriate time series breaks, if a temporary weakening to an open-low state occurs. According to the results, a decrease of the storm number and a tendency towards deeper cyclones is expected in the future, in general agreement with the results of previous studies. However, new findings reveal with respect to the dynamic/kinematic characteristics of the cyclonic tracks. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS: M. Hatzaki would like to thank the Greek State Scholarships Foundation for financial support through the program of postdoctoral research. The support of EU-FP6 project CIRCE Integrated Project-Climate Change and Impact Research: the Mediterranean Environment (http://www.circeproject.eu) for climate model data provision is also greatly acknowledged.

Revised mineral dust emissions in the atmospheric chemistry-climate model EMAC (MESSy 2.52 DU_Astitha1 KKDU2017 patch)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klingmüller, Klaus; Metzger, Swen; Abdelkader, Mohamed; Karydis, Vlassis A.; Stenchikov, Georgiy L.; Pozzer, Andrea; Lelieveld, Jos

2018-03-01

To improve the aeolian dust budget calculations with the global ECHAM/MESSy atmospheric chemistry-climate model (EMAC), which combines the Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy) with the ECMWF/Hamburg (ECHAM) climate model developed at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg based on a weather prediction model of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), we have implemented new input data and updates of the emission scheme.The data set comprises land cover classification, vegetation, clay fraction and topography. It is based on up-to-date observations, which are crucial to account for the rapid changes of deserts and semi-arid regions in recent decades. The new Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)-based land cover and vegetation data are time dependent, and the effect of long-term trends and variability of the relevant parameters is therefore considered by the emission scheme. All input data have a spatial resolution of at least 0.1° compared to 1° in the previous version, equipping the model for high-resolution simulations.We validate the updates by comparing the aerosol optical depth (AOD) at 550 nm wavelength from a 1-year simulation at T106 (about 1.1°) resolution with Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) and MODIS observations, the 10 µm dust AOD (DAOD) with Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) retrievals, and dust concentration and deposition results with observations from the Aerosol Comparisons between Observations and Models (AeroCom) dust benchmark data set. The update significantly improves agreement with the observations and is therefore recommended to be used in future simulations.

Estimation of the climate change impact on a catchment water balance using an ensemble of GCMs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reshmidevi, T. V.; Nagesh Kumar, D.; Mehrotra, R.; Sharma, A.

2018-01-01

This work evaluates the impact of climate change on the water balance of a catchment in India. Rainfall and hydro-meteorological variables for current (20C3M scenario, 1981-2000) and two future time periods: mid of the 21st century (2046-2065) and end of the century (2081-2100) are simulated using Modified Markov Model-Kernel Density Estimation (MMM-KDE) and k-nearest neighbor downscaling models. Climate projections from an ensemble of 5 GCMs (MPI-ECHAM5, BCCR-BCM2.0, CSIRO-mk3.5, IPSL-CM4, and MRI-CGCM2) are used in this study. Hydrologic simulations for the current as well as future climate scenarios are carried out using Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) integrated with ArcGIS (ArcSWAT v.2009). The results show marginal reduction in runoff ratio, annual streamflow and groundwater recharge towards the end of the century. Increased temperature and evapotranspiration project an increase in the irrigation demand towards the end of the century. Rainfall projections for the future shows marginal increase in the annual average rainfall. Short and moderate wet spells are projected to decrease, whereas short and moderate dry spells are projected to increase in the future. Projected reduction in streamflow and groundwater recharge along with the increase in irrigation demand is likely to aggravate the water stress in the region under the future scenario.

Climate change and watershed mercury export: a multiple projection and model analysis.

PubMed

Golden, Heather E; Knightes, Christopher D; Conrads, Paul A; Feaster, Toby D; Davis, Gary M; Benedict, Stephen T; Bradley, Paul M

2013-09-01

Future shifts in climatic conditions may impact watershed mercury (Hg) dynamics and transport. An ensemble of watershed models was applied in the present study to simulate and evaluate the responses of hydrological and total Hg (THg) fluxes from the landscape to the watershed outlet and in-stream THg concentrations to contrasting climate change projections for a watershed in the southeastern coastal plain of the United States. Simulations were conducted under stationary atmospheric deposition and land cover conditions to explicitly evaluate the effect of projected precipitation and temperature on watershed Hg export (i.e., the flux of Hg at the watershed outlet). Based on downscaled inputs from 2 global circulation models that capture extremes of projected wet (Community Climate System Model, Ver 3 [CCSM3]) and dry (ECHAM4/HOPE-G [ECHO]) conditions for this region, watershed model simulation results suggest a decrease of approximately 19% in ensemble-averaged mean annual watershed THg fluxes using the ECHO climate-change model and an increase of approximately 5% in THg fluxes with the CCSM3 model. Ensemble-averaged mean annual ECHO in-stream THg concentrations increased 20%, while those of CCSM3 decreased by 9% between the baseline and projected simulation periods. Watershed model simulation results using both climate change models suggest that monthly watershed THg fluxes increase during the summer, when projected flow is higher than baseline conditions. The present study's multiple watershed model approach underscores the uncertainty associated with climate change response projections and their use in climate change management decisions. Thus, single-model predictions can be misleading, particularly in developmental stages of watershed Hg modeling. Copyright © 2013 SETAC.

Reconciling the aerosol-liquid water path relationship in the ECHAM6-HAM GCM and the Aerosol_cci/Cloud_cci (A)ATSR dataset by minimizing the effect of aerosol swelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neubauer, D.; Christensen, M.; Lohmann, U.; Poulsen, C. A.

2016-12-01

Studies using present day variability to assess statistical relationships between aerosol and cloud properties find different strengths of these relationships between satellite data and general circulation model (GCM) data. This discrepancy can be explained by structural uncertainties due to differences in the analysis/observational scale and the process scale or spurious relationships between aerosol and cloud properties. Such spurious relationships are the growth of aerosol particles in the humid environment surrounding clouds, misclassification of partly cloudy satellite pixels as cloud free pixels, brightening of aerosol particles by sunlight reflected at cloud edges, or effects of clouds on aerosol like processing of aerosol particles in clouds by nucleation or impact scavenging and subsequent growth by heterogeneous chemistry and release by cloud droplet evaporation or wet scavenging of aerosol particles. To minimize the effects of spatial aggregation and spurious relationships we apply a new nearest neighbour approach to high resolution (A)ATSR datasets from the Aerosol_cci and Cloud_cci projects of the Climate Change Initiative (CCI) programme of ESA. For the ECHAM6-HAM GCM we quantify the impact of using dry aerosol (without aerosol water) in the analysis to mimic the effect of the nearest neighbour approach. The aerosol-liquid water path relationship in ECHAM6-HAM is systematically stronger than in (A)ATSR data and cannot be explained by an overestimation of autoconversion when using diagnostic precipitation but rather by aerosol swelling in regions where humidity is high and clouds are present. When aerosol water is removed from the analysis in ECHAM6-HAM the strength of the aerosol-liquid water path relationship agrees much better with the ones of (A)ATSR or MODIS. We further find that while the observed relationships of different satellite sensors ((A)ATSR vs. MODIS) are not always consistent for tested environmental conditions the relationships in ECHAM6-HAM are missing a strong dependence on environmental conditions which is critical for bridging the gap between satellite and model estimates of aerosol indirect forcing.

From nuclear power to coal power: Aerosol-induced health and radiative effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mielonen, Tero; Laakso, Anton; Karhunen, Anni; Kokkola, Harri; Partanen, Antti-Ilari; Korhonen, Hannele; Romakkaniemi, Sami; Lehtinen, Kari E. J.

2015-12-01

We have investigated what would be the climate and PM-induced air quality consequences if all nuclear reactors worldwide were closed down and replaced by coal combustion. In a way, this presents a "worst-case scenario" since less polluting energy sources are available. We studied simultaneously the radiative and health effects of coal power emissions using a global 3-D aerosol-climate model (ECHAM-HAMMOZ). This approach allowed us to estimate the effects of a major global energy production change from low carbon source to a high carbon one using detailed spatially resolved population density information. We included the radiative effects of both CO2 and PM2.5 but limited the study of health effects to PM2.5 only. Our results show that the replacement of nuclear power with coal power would have globally caused an average of 150,000 premature deaths per year during the period 2005-2009 with two thirds of them in Europe. For 37 years the aerosol emissions from the additional coal power plants would cool the climate but after that the accumulating CO2 emissions would accelerate the warming of the climate.

Cirrus clouds as seen by the CALIPSO satellite and ECHAM-HAM global climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gasparini, Blaz; Meyer, Angela; Neubauer, David; Münch, Steffen; Lohmann, Ulrike

2017-04-01

Ice clouds impact the planetary energy balance and upper tropospheric water vapour transport and are therefore relevant for climate. In this study ice clouds at temperatures below -40°C simulated by the ECHAM-HAM global climate model are compared to CALIPSO/CALIOP satellite data. The model reproduces well the mean occurrence of ice clouds, while the ice water path, ice crystal radius, cloud optical depth and extinction are overestimated in terms of annual means and temperature dependent frequency histograms. Two distinct types of cirrus clouds are found: in-situ formed cirrus dominating at temperatures below -60°C and liquid-origin cirrus, dominating at temperatures warmer than -55°C. The latter form in anvils of deep convective clouds or by glaciation of mixed-phase clouds. They are associated with ice water contents of up to 0.1 g m-3 and extinctions of up to 0.1 km-1, while the in-situ formed cirrus are optically thinner and contain at least an order of magnitude less ice. The ice cloud properties do not differ significantly between the southern and the northern hemisphere. In-situ formed ice clouds are further divided into homogeneously and heterogeneously nucleated ones. The simulated liquid-origin ice crystals mainly form in convective outflow in large number concentrations, similar to in-situ homogeneously nucleated ice crystals. On the contrary, heterogeneously nucleated ice crystals are associated with smaller number concentrations. However, ice crystal aggregation and depositional growth smooth the differences between several formation mechanisms making the attribution to a specific ice nucleation mechanism challenging.

Influence of North Atlantic modes on European climate extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Proemmel, K.; Cubasch, U.

2017-12-01

It is well known that the North Atlantic strongly influences European climate. Only few studies exist that focus on its impact on climate extremes. We are interested in these extremes and the processes and mechanisms behind it. For the analysis of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) we use simulations performed with the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Earth System Model (MPI-ESM). The NAO has a strong impact especially on European winter and the changes in minimum temperature are even larger than in maximum temperature. The impact of the Atlantic Multi-decadal Variability (AMV) on climate extremes is analyzed in ECHAM6 simulations forced with AMV warm and AMV cold sea surface temperature patterns. We analyze different extreme indices and try to understand the processes.

Improving microphysics in a convective parameterization: possibilities and limitations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Labbouz, Laurent; Heikenfeld, Max; Stier, Philip; Morrison, Hugh; Milbrandt, Jason; Protat, Alain; Kipling, Zak

2017-04-01

The convective cloud field model (CCFM) is a convective parameterization implemented in the climate model ECHAM6.1-HAM2.2. It represents a population of clouds within each ECHAM-HAM model column, simulating up to 10 different convective cloud types with individual radius, vertical velocities and microphysical properties. Comparisons between CCFM and radar data at Darwin, Australia, show that in order to reproduce both the convective cloud top height distribution and the vertical velocity profile, the effect of aerodynamic drag on the rising parcel has to be considered, along with a reduced entrainment parameter. A new double-moment microphysics (the Predicted Particle Properties scheme, P3) has been implemented in the latest version of CCFM and is compared to the standard single-moment microphysics and the radar retrievals at Darwin. The microphysical process rates (autoconversion, accretion, deposition, freezing, …) and their response to changes in CDNC are investigated and compared to high resolution CRM WRF simulations over the Amazon region. The results shed light on the possibilities and limitations of microphysics improvements in the framework of CCFM and in convective parameterizations in general.

Sensitivity studies of different aerosol indirect effects in mixed-phase clouds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lohmann, U.; Hoose, C.

2009-11-01

Aerosols affect the climate system by changing cloud characteristics. Using the global climate model ECHAM5-HAM, we investigate different aerosol effects on mixed-phase clouds: The glaciation effect, which refers to a more frequent glaciation due to anthropogenic aerosols, versus the de-activation effect, which suggests that ice nuclei become less effective because of an anthropogenic sulfate coating. The glaciation effect can partly offset the indirect aerosol effect on warm clouds and thus causes the total anthropogenic aerosol effect to be smaller. It is investigated by varying the parameterization for the Bergeron-Findeisen process and the threshold coating thickness of sulfate (SO4-crit), which is required to convert an externally mixed aerosol particle into an internally mixed particle. Differences in the net radiation at the top-of-the-atmosphere due to anthropogenic aerosols between the different sensitivity studies amount up to 0.5 W m-2. This suggests that the investigated mixed-phase processes have a major effect on the total anthropogenic aerosol effect.

Sensitivity studies of different aerosol indirect effects in mixed-phase clouds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lohmann, U.; Hoose, C.

2009-07-01

Aerosols affect the climate system by changing cloud characteristics. Using the global climate model ECHAM5-HAM, we investigate different aerosol effects on mixed-phase clouds: The glaciation effect, which refers to a more frequent glaciation due to anthropogenic aerosols, versus the de-activation effect, which suggests that ice nuclei become less effective because of an anthropogenic sulfate coating. The glaciation effect can partly offset the indirect aerosol effect on warm clouds and thus causes the total anthropogenic aerosol effect to be smaller. It is investigated by varying the parameterization for the Bergeron-Findeisen process and the threshold coating thickness of sulfate (SO4-crit), which is required to convert an externally mixed aerosol particle into an internally mixed particle. Differences in the net radiation at the top-of-the-atmosphere due to anthropogenic aerosols between the different sensitivity studies amount up to 0.5 W m-2. This suggests that the investigated mixed-phase processes have a major effect on the total anthropogenic aerosol effect.

Aerosol effect on climate extremes in Europe under different future scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sillmann, J.; Pozzoli, L.; Vignati, E.; Kloster, S.; Feichter, J.

2013-05-01

This study investigates changes in extreme temperature and precipitation events under different future scenarios of anthropogenic aerosol emissions (i.e., SO2 and black and organic carbon) simulated with an aerosol-climate model (ECHAM5-HAM) with focus on Europe. The simulations include a maximum feasible aerosol reduction (MFR) scenario and a current legislation emission (CLEmod) scenario where Europe implements the MFR scenario, but the rest of the world follows the current legislation scenario and a greenhouse gas scenario. The strongest changes relative to the year 2000 are projected for the MFR scenario, in which the global aerosol reduction greatly enforces the general warming effect due to greenhouse gases and results in significant increases of temperature and precipitation extremes in Europe. Regional warming effects can also be identified from aerosol reductions under the CLEmodscenario. This becomes most obvious in the increase of the hottest summer daytime temperatures in Northern Europe.

Climatic change impacts on water balance of the Upper Jordan River

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heckl, A.; Kunstmann, H.

2009-04-01

The Eastern Mediterranean and Near East (EM/NE) is an extremely water scarce environment. It is expected that problems will increase due to climate change and population growth. The impact of climate change on water availability in EM/NE and in particular the Jordan River catchment is investigated in this study. Focus is set on the Upper Jordan River catchment (UJC) as it provides 1/3rd of freshwater resources in Israel and Palestine. It is a hydro-geologically extremely complex region with karstic groundwater flow and an orography with steep gradients. The methods used are high resolution coupled regional climate - hydrology simulations. Two IPCC scenarios (A2 and B2) of the global climate model ECHAM4 have been dynamically downscaled using the non-hydrostatic meteorological model MM5 in two nesting steps with resolutions of 54x54 km2 and 18x18 km2 for the period 1961-2099, whereby the time slice 1961-1989 represents the current climate. The meteorological fields are used to drive the physically based hydrological model WaSiM applied to the UJC. The hydrological model computes in detail the surface and subsurface water flow and water balance in a horizontal resolution of 450 x 450 m2 and dynamically couples to a 2-dim numerical groundwater model. Parameters like surface runoff, groundwater recharge, soil moisture and evapotranspiration can be extracted. Results show in both scenarios increasing yearly mean temperatures up to 4-5 K until 2099 and decreasing yearly precipitation amounts up to 25% (scenario A2). The effect on the water balance of the UJC are reduced discharge and groundwater recharge, increased evaporation and reduction of snow cover in the mountains which usually serves as an important freshwater reservoir for the summer discharge.

A Study of the Climate Change during 21st Century over Peninsular Malaysia Watersheds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kavvas, M. L.; Ercan, A.; Ishida, K.; Chen, Z. R.; Jang, S.; Amin, M. Z. M.; Shaaban, A. J.

2016-12-01

15 coarse-resolution (150 - 300 km) climate projections for the 21st century by 3 different coupled land-atmosphere-ocean GCMs (ECHAM5 of the Max Planck Institute of Meteorology of Germany, CCSM3 of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) of the United States, and MRI-CGCM2.3.2 of the Meteorological Research Institute of Japan) under 4 different greenhouse gas emission scenarios (B1, A1B, A2, A1FI) were dynamically downscaled at hourly intervals by a regional hydro-climate model of Peninsular Malaysia (RegHCM-PM) that consisted of Regional Atmospheric Model MM5 that was coupled with WEHY watershed hydrology model over Peninsular Malaysia (PM), at the scale of the hillslopes of 13 selected watersheds (Batu Pahat, Johor, Muda, Kelang, Kelantan, Linggi, Muar, Pahang, Perak, Selangor, Dungun, Kemaman and Kuantan) and 12 selected intervening coastal regions in order to assess the impact of climate change on the climate conditions at the selected watersheds and coastal regions of PM. From the downscaled climate projections it can be concluded that the mean annual precipitation gradually increases toward the end of the 21st century over each of the 13 watersheds and the 12 coastal regions. The basin-average mean annual temperature increases in the range of 2.50C - 2.950C over PM during the 2010 -2100 period when compared to the 1970-2000 historical period. The ensemble average basin-average annual potential evapotranspiration increases gradually throughout the 21st century over all watersheds.

Responses of dune activity and desertification in China to global warming in the twenty-first century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Xunming; Yang, Yi; Dong, Zhibao; Zhang, Caixia

2009-06-01

Most areas of arid and semiarid China are covered by aeolian sand dunes, sand sheets, and desert steppes, and the existence of the nearly 80 million people who live in this region could be seriously jeopardized if climate change increases desertification. However, the expected trends in desertification during the 21st century are poorly understood. In the present study, we selected the ECHAM4 and HadCM3 global climate models (after comparing them with the results of the GFDL-R30, CGCM2, and CSIRO-Mk2b models) and used simulations of a dune mobility index under IPCC SRES climate scenarios A1FI, A2a, A2b, A2c, B1a, B2a, and B2b to estimate future trends in dune activity and desertification in China. Although uncertainties in climate predictions mean that there is still far to go before we can develop a comprehensive dune activity estimation system, HadCM3 simulations with most greenhouse forcing scenarios showed decreased desertification in most western region of arid and semiarid China by 2039, but increased desertification thereafter, whereas ECHAM4 simulation results showed that desertification will increase during this period. Inhabitants of thecentral region will benefit from reversed desertification from 2010 to 2099, whereas inhabitants of the eastern region will suffer from increased desertification from 2010 to 2099. From 2010 to 2039, most regions will not be significantly affected by desertification, but from 2040 to 2099, the environments of the western and eastern regions will deteriorate due to the significant effects of global warming (particularly the interaction between precipitation and potential evapotranspiration), leading to decreased livestock and grain yields and possibly threatening China's food security.

Impact of a statistical bias correction on the projected simulated hydrological changes obtained from three GCMs and two hydrology models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hagemann, Stefan; Chen, Cui; Haerter, Jan O.; Gerten, Dieter; Heinke, Jens; Piani, Claudio

2010-05-01

Future climate model scenarios depend crucially on their adequate representation of the hydrological cycle. Within the European project "Water and Global Change" (WATCH) special care is taken to couple state-of-the-art climate model output to a suite of hydrological models. This coupling is expected to lead to a better assessment of changes in the hydrological cycle. However, due to the systematic model errors of climate models, their output is often not directly applicable as input for hydrological models. Thus, the methodology of a statistical bias correction has been developed, which can be used for correcting climate model output to produce internally consistent fields that have the same statistical intensity distribution as the observations. As observations, global re-analysed daily data of precipitation and temperature are used that are obtained in the WATCH project. We will apply the bias correction to global climate model data of precipitation and temperature from the GCMs ECHAM5/MPIOM, CNRM-CM3 and LMDZ-4, and intercompare the bias corrected data to the original GCM data and the observations. Then, the orginal and the bias corrected GCM data will be used to force two global hydrology models: (1) the hydrological model of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-HM) consisting of the Simplified Land surface (SL) scheme and the Hydrological Discharge (HD) model, and (2) the dynamic vegetation model LPJmL operated by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. The impact of the bias correction on the projected simulated hydrological changes will be analysed, and the resulting behaviour of the two hydrology models will be compared.

Technical Note: On the use of nudging for aerosol–climate model intercomparison studies

DOE PAGES

Zhang, K.; Wan, H.; Liu, X.; ...

2014-08-26

Nudging as an assimilation technique has seen increased use in recent years in the development and evaluation of climate models. Constraining the simulated wind and temperature fields using global weather reanalysis facilitates more straightforward comparison between simulation and observation, and reduces uncertainties associated with natural variabilities of the large-scale circulation. On the other hand, the forcing introduced by nudging can be strong enough to change the basic characteristics of the model climate. In the paper we show that for the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5), due to the systematic temperature bias in the standard model and the sensitivity ofmore » simulated ice formation to anthropogenic aerosol concentration, nudging towards reanalysis results in substantial reductions in the ice cloud amount and the impact of anthropogenic aerosols on long-wave cloud forcing. In order to reduce discrepancies between the nudged and unconstrained simulations, and meanwhile take the advantages of nudging, two alternative experimentation methods are evaluated. The first one constrains only the horizontal winds. The second method nudges both winds and temperature, but replaces the long-term climatology of the reanalysis by that of the model. Results show that both methods lead to substantially improved agreement with the free-running model in terms of the top-of-atmosphere radiation budget and cloud ice amount. The wind-only nudging is more convenient to apply, and provides higher correlations of the wind fields, geopotential height and specific humidity between simulation and reanalysis. Results from both CAM5 and a second aerosol–climate model ECHAM6-HAM2 also indicate that compared to the wind-and-temperature nudging, constraining only winds leads to better agreement with the free-running model in terms of the estimated shortwave cloud forcing and the simulated convective activities. This suggests nudging the horizontal winds but not temperature is a good strategy for the investigation of aerosol indirect effects since it provides well-constrained meteorology without strongly perturbing the model's mean climate.« less

Technical Note: On the use of nudging for aerosol-climate model intercomparison studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, K.; Wan, H.; Liu, X.; Ghan, S. J.; Kooperman, G. J.; Ma, P.-L.; Rasch, P. J.; Neubauer, D.; Lohmann, U.

2014-08-01

Nudging as an assimilation technique has seen increased use in recent years in the development and evaluation of climate models. Constraining the simulated wind and temperature fields using global weather reanalysis facilitates more straightforward comparison between simulation and observation, and reduces uncertainties associated with natural variabilities of the large-scale circulation. On the other hand, the forcing introduced by nudging can be strong enough to change the basic characteristics of the model climate. In the paper we show that for the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5), due to the systematic temperature bias in the standard model and the sensitivity of simulated ice formation to anthropogenic aerosol concentration, nudging towards reanalysis results in substantial reductions in the ice cloud amount and the impact of anthropogenic aerosols on long-wave cloud forcing. In order to reduce discrepancies between the nudged and unconstrained simulations, and meanwhile take the advantages of nudging, two alternative experimentation methods are evaluated. The first one constrains only the horizontal winds. The second method nudges both winds and temperature, but replaces the long-term climatology of the reanalysis by that of the model. Results show that both methods lead to substantially improved agreement with the free-running model in terms of the top-of-atmosphere radiation budget and cloud ice amount. The wind-only nudging is more convenient to apply, and provides higher correlations of the wind fields, geopotential height and specific humidity between simulation and reanalysis. Results from both CAM5 and a second aerosol-climate model ECHAM6-HAM2 also indicate that compared to the wind-and-temperature nudging, constraining only winds leads to better agreement with the free-running model in terms of the estimated shortwave cloud forcing and the simulated convective activities. This suggests nudging the horizontal winds but not temperature is a good strategy for the investigation of aerosol indirect effects since it provides well-constrained meteorology without strongly perturbing the model's mean climate.

The global aerosol-climate model ECHAM-HAM, version 2: sensitivity to improvements in process representations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, K.; O'Donnell, D.; Kazil, J.; Stier, P.; Kinne, S.; Lohmann, U.; Ferrachat, S.; Croft, B.; Quaas, J.; Wan, H.; Rast, S.; Feichter, J.

2012-03-01

This paper introduces and evaluates the second version of the global aerosol-climate model ECHAM-HAM. Major changes have been brought into the model, including new parameterizations for aerosol nucleation and water uptake, an explicit treatment of secondary organic aerosols, modified emission calculations for sea salt and mineral dust, the coupling of aerosol microphysics to a two-moment stratiform cloud microphysics scheme, and alternative wet scavenging parameterizations. These revisions extend the model's capability to represent details of the aerosol lifecycle and its interaction with climate. Sensitivity experiments are carried out to analyse the effects of these improvements in the process representation on the simulated aerosol properties and global distribution. The new parameterizations that have largest impact on the global mean aerosol optical depth and radiative effects turn out to be the water uptake scheme and cloud microphysics. The former leads to a significant decrease of aerosol water contents in the lower troposphere, and consequently smaller optical depth; the latter results in higher aerosol loading and longer lifetime due to weaker in-cloud scavenging. The combined effects of the new/updated parameterizations are demonstrated by comparing the new model results with those from the earlier version, and against observations. Model simulations are evaluated in terms of aerosol number concentrations against measurements collected from twenty field campaigns as well as from fixed measurement sites, and in terms of optical properties against the AERONET measurements. Results indicate a general improvement with respect to the earlier version. The aerosol size distribution and spatial-temporal variance simulated by HAM2 are in better agreement with the observations. Biases in the earlier model version in aerosol optical depth and in the Ångström parameter have been reduced. The paper also points out the remaining model deficiencies that need to be addressed in the future.

Evaluation of the North American Multi-Model Ensemble System for Monthly and Seasonal Prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Q.

2014-12-01

Since August 2011, the real time seasonal forecasts of the U.S. National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) have been made on 8th of each month by NCEP Climate Prediction Center (CPC). The participating models were NCEP/CFSv1&2, GFDL/CM2.2, NCAR/U.Miami/COLA/CCSM3, NASA/GEOS5, IRI/ ECHAM-a & ECHAM-f in the first year of the real time NMME forecast. Two Canadian coupled models CMC/CanCM3 and CM4 joined in and CFSv1 and IRI's models dropped out in the second year. The NMME team at CPC collects monthly means of three variables, precipitation, temperature at 2m and sea surface temperature from each modeling center on a 1x1 global grid, removes systematic errors, makes the grand ensemble mean in equal weight for each model mean and probability forecast with equal weight for each member of each model. This provides the NMME forecast locked in schedule for the CPC operational seasonal and monthly outlook. The basic verification metrics of seasonal and monthly prediction of NMME are calculated as an evaluation of skill, including both deterministic and probabilistic forecasts for the 3-year real time (August, 2011- July 2014) period and the 30-year retrospective forecast (1982-2011) of the individual models as well as the NMME ensemble. The motivation of this study is to provide skill benchmarks for future improvements of the NMME seasonal and monthly prediction system. We also want to establish whether the real time and hindcast periods (used for bias correction in real time) are consistent. The experimental phase I of the project already supplies routine guidance to users of the NMME forecasts.

Evaluation of the new EMAC-SWIFT chemistry climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scheffler, Janice; Langematz, Ulrike; Wohltmann, Ingo; Rex, Markus

2016-04-01

It is well known that the representation of atmospheric ozone chemistry in weather and climate models is essential for a realistic simulation of the atmospheric state. Including atmospheric ozone chemistry into climate simulations is usually done by prescribing a climatological ozone field, by including a fast linear ozone scheme into the model or by using a climate model with complex interactive chemistry. While prescribed climatological ozone fields are often not aligned with the modelled dynamics, a linear ozone scheme may not be applicable for a wide range of climatological conditions. Although interactive chemistry provides a realistic representation of atmospheric chemistry such model simulations are computationally very expensive and hence not suitable for ensemble simulations or simulations with multiple climate change scenarios. A new approach to represent atmospheric chemistry in climate models which can cope with non-linearities in ozone chemistry and is applicable to a wide range of climatic states is the Semi-empirical Weighted Iterative Fit Technique (SWIFT) that is driven by reanalysis data and has been validated against observational satellite data and runs of a full Chemistry and Transport Model. SWIFT has recently been implemented into the ECHAM/MESSy (EMAC) chemistry climate model that uses a modular approach to climate modelling where individual model components can be switched on and off. Here, we show first results of EMAC-SWIFT simulations and validate these against EMAC simulations using the complex interactive chemistry scheme MECCA, and against observations.

A new Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) experiment designed for climate and chemistry models

DOE PAGES

Tilmes, S.; Mills, Mike; Niemeier, Ulrike; ...

2015-01-15

A new Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) experiment "G4 specified stratospheric aerosols" (short name: G4SSA) is proposed to investigate the impact of stratospheric aerosol geoengineering on atmosphere, chemistry, dynamics, climate, and the environment. In contrast to the earlier G4 GeoMIP experiment, which requires an emission of sulfur dioxide (SO₂) into the model, a prescribed aerosol forcing file is provided to the community, to be consistently applied to future model experiments between 2020 and 2100. This stratospheric aerosol distribution, with a total burden of about 2 Tg S has been derived using the ECHAM5-HAM microphysical model, based on a continuous annualmore » tropical emission of 8 Tg SO₂ yr⁻¹. A ramp-up of geoengineering in 2020 and a ramp-down in 2070 over a period of 2 years are included in the distribution, while a background aerosol burden should be used for the last 3 decades of the experiment. The performance of this experiment using climate and chemistry models in a multi-model comparison framework will allow us to better understand the impact of geoengineering and its abrupt termination after 50 years in a changing environment. The zonal and monthly mean stratospheric aerosol input data set is available at https://www2.acd.ucar.edu/gcm/geomip-g4-specified-stratospheric-aerosol-data-set.« less

Simulating Heinrich events in a coupled atmosphere-ocean-ice sheet model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mikolajewicz, Uwe; Ziemen, Florian

2016-04-01

Heinrich events are among the most prominent events of long-term climate variability recorded in proxies across the northern hemisphere. They are the archetype of ice sheet - climate interactions on millennial time scales. Nevertheless, the exact mechanisms that cause Heinrich events are still under discussion, and their climatic consequences are far from being fully understood. We contribute to answering the open questions by studying Heinrich events in a coupled ice sheet model (ISM) atmosphere-ocean-vegetation general circulation model (AOVGCM) framework, where this variability occurs as part of the model generated internal variability without the need to prescribe external perturbations, as was the standard approach in almost all model studies so far. The setup consists of a northern hemisphere setup of the modified Parallel Ice Sheet Model (mPISM) coupled to the global coarse resolution AOVGCM ECHAM5/MPIOM/LPJ. The simulations used for this analysis were an ensemble covering substantial parts of the late Glacial forced with transient insolation and prescribed atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. The modeled Heinrich events show a marked influence of the ice discharge on the Atlantic circulation and heat transport, but none of the Heinrich events during the Glacial did show a complete collapse of the North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. The simulated main consequences of the Heinrich events are a freshening and cooling over the North Atlantic and a drying over northern Europe.

Projecting Climate Change Impacts on Wildfire Probabilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Westerling, A. L.; Bryant, B. P.; Preisler, H.

2008-12-01

We present preliminary results of the 2008 Climate Change Impact Assessment for wildfire in California, part of the second biennial science report to the California Climate Action Team organized via the California Climate Change Center by the California Energy Commission's Public Interest Energy Research Program pursuant to Executive Order S-03-05 of Governor Schwarzenegger. In order to support decision making by the State pertaining to mitigation of and adaptation to climate change and its impacts, we model wildfire occurrence monthly from 1950 to 2100 under a range of climate scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. We use six climate change models (GFDL CM2.1, NCAR PCM1, CNRM CM3, MPI ECHAM5, MIROC3.2 med, NCAR CCSM3) under two emissions scenarios--A2 (C02 850ppm max atmospheric concentration) and B1(CO2 550ppm max concentration). Climate model output has been downscaled to a 1/8 degree (~12 km) grid using two alternative methods: a Bias Correction and Spatial Donwscaling (BCSD) and a Constructed Analogues (CA) downscaling. Hydrologic variables have been simulated from temperature, precipitation, wind and radiation forcing data using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) Macroscale Hydrologic Model. We model wildfire as a function of temperature, moisture deficit, and land surface characteristics using nonlinear logistic regression techniques. Previous work on wildfire climatology and seasonal forecasting has demonstrated that these variables account for much of the inter-annual and seasonal variation in wildfire. The results of this study are monthly gridded probabilities of wildfire occurrence by fire size class, and estimates of the number of structures potentially affected by fires. In this presentation we will explore the range of modeled outcomes for wildfire in California, considering the effects of emissions scenarios, climate model sensitivities, downscaling methods, hydrologic simulations, statistical model specifications for california wildfire, and their intersection with a range of development scenarios for California.

Global Warming In A Regional Model of The Atlantic Ocean - Echam4/opyc3 In Flame 4/3

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schweckendiek, U.; Willebrand, J.

The reaction of the Thermohaline Circulation (THC) in most climate models on global warming scenarios is a weakening of the THC. An exception is the ECHAM4/OPYC3 simulation whose stable behaviour is traced back to a strongly enhanced evaporation and as a consequence to a development of a salt anomaly in the tropics and subtropics of the Atlantic Ocean (Latif et al.,2000). This salt signal is advected into convection regions and compensates the reduction of surface density due to surface heating and freshening. To examine this scenario for a more realistic ocean model, data from this model is used to drive a reginal model of the Atlantic Ocean. In order to test the crucial mechanisms for the maintainance of the meridional overturning, we have performed sensitivity studies by focussing on different combinations of the anomalous freshwater and heat fluxes. The results demonstrate that for the stabilising effect to become effective the salt sig- nal has to enter the GIN-Seas and subsequently the overflow waters, underlining the importance of the overflows for the THC. The Labrador Sea Convection is however uneffected by this stabilising salt signal and its convection ultimatly breaks down un- der surface warming and freshening.

Climate Prediction for Brazil's Nordeste: Performance of Empirical and Numerical Modeling Methods.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moura, Antonio Divino; Hastenrath, Stefan

2004-07-01

Comparisons of performance of climate forecast methods require consistency in the predictand and a long common reference period. For Brazil's Nordeste, empirical methods developed at the University of Wisconsin use preseason (October January) rainfall and January indices of the fields of meridional wind component and sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropical Atlantic and the equatorial Pacific as input to stepwise multiple regression and neural networking. These are used to predict the March June rainfall at a network of 27 stations. An experiment at the International Research Institute for Climate Prediction, Columbia University, with a numerical model (ECHAM4.5) used global SST information through February to predict the March June rainfall at three grid points in the Nordeste. The predictands for the empirical and numerical model forecasts are correlated at +0.96, and the period common to the independent portion of record of the empirical prediction and the numerical modeling is 1968 99. Over this period, predicted versus observed rainfall are evaluated in terms of correlation, root-mean-square error, absolute error, and bias. Performance is high for both approaches. Numerical modeling produces a correlation of +0.68, moderate errors, and strong negative bias. For the empirical methods, errors and bias are small, and correlations of +0.73 and +0.82 are reached between predicted and observed rainfall.

Progress in Global Multicompartmental Modelling of DDT

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stemmler, I.; Lammel, G.

2009-04-01

Dichlorophenyltrichloroethane, DDT, and its major metabolite dichlorophenyldichloroethylene, DDE, are long-lived in the environment (persistent) and circulate since the 1950s. They accumulate along food chains, cause detrimental effects in marine and terrestrial wild life, and pose a hazard for human health. DDT was widely used as an insecticide in the past and is still in use in a number of tropical countries to combat vector borne diseases like malaria and typhus. It is a multicompartmental substance with only a small mass fraction residing in air. A global multicompartment chemistry transport model (MPI-MCTM; Semeena et al., 2006) is used to study the environmental distribution and fate of dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT). For the first time a horizontally and vertically resolved global model was used to perform a long-term simulation of DDT and DDE. The model is based on general circulation models for the ocean (MPIOM; Marsland et al., 2003) and atmosphere (ECHAM5). In addition, an oceanic biogeochemistry model (HAMOCC5.1; Maier-Reimer et al., 2005 ) and a microphysical aerosol model (HAM; Stier et al., 2005 ) are included. Multicompartmental substances are cycling in atmosphere (3 phases), ocean (3 phases), top soil (3 phases), and vegetation surfaces. The model was run for 40 years forced with historical agricultural application data of 1950-1990. The model results show that the global environmental contamination started to decrease in air, soil and vegetation after the applications peaked in 1965-70. In some regions, however, the DDT mass had not yet reached a maximum in 1990 and was still accumulating mass until the end of the simulation. Modelled DDT and DDE concentrations in atmosphere, ocean and soil are evaluated by comparison with observational data. The evaluation of the model results indicate that degradation of DDE in air was underestimated. Also for DDT, the discrepancies between model results and observations are related to uncertainties of input parameters. Furthermore, better resolution of some processes could improve model performance. References: Marsland S.J., Haak H., Jungclaus J.H., Latif M., Röske F. (2003): The Max-Planck-Institute global ocean/sea ice model with orthogonal curvilinear coordinates. Ocean Modelling 5, 91-127 Maier-Reimer E. , Kriest I., Segschneider J., Wetzel P. : The HAMburg Ocean Carbon Cycle Model HAMOCC 5.1 - Technical Description Release 1.1 (2005),Reports on Earth System Science 14 Stier P. , Feichter J. (2005), Kinne S., Kloster S., Vignati E., Wilson J.Ganzeveld L., Tegen I., Werner M., Blakanski Y., Schulz M., Boucher O., Minikin A., Petzold A.: The aerosol-climate model ECHAM5-HAM. Atmos. Chem. Phys 5, 1125-1156 Semeena V.S., Feichter J., Lammel G. (2006): Impact of the regional climate and substance properties on the fate and atmospheric long-range transport of persistent organic pollutants - examples of DDT and γ-HCH. Atmos. Chem. Phys. 6, 1231-1248

Downscaled climate change projections with uncertainty assessment over India using a high resolution multi-model approach.

PubMed

Kumar, Pankaj; Wiltshire, Andrew; Mathison, Camilla; Asharaf, Shakeel; Ahrens, Bodo; Lucas-Picher, Philippe; Christensen, Jens H; Gobiet, Andreas; Saeed, Fahad; Hagemann, Stefan; Jacob, Daniela

2013-12-01

This study presents the possible regional climate change over South Asia with a focus over India as simulated by three very high resolution regional climate models (RCMs). One of the most striking results is a robust increase in monsoon precipitation by the end of the 21st century but regional differences in strength. First the ability of RCMs to simulate the monsoon climate is analyzed. For this purpose all three RCMs are forced with ECMWF reanalysis data for the period 1989-2008 at a horizontal resolution of ~25 km. The results are compared against independent observations. In order to simulate future climate the models are driven by lateral boundary conditions from two global climate models (GCMs: ECHAM5-MPIOM and HadCM3) using the SRES A1B scenario, except for one RCM, which only used data from one GCM. The results are presented for the full transient simulation period 1970-2099 and also for several time slices. The analysis concentrates on precipitation and temperature over land. All models show a clear signal of gradually wide-spread warming throughout the 21st century. The ensemble-mean warming over India is 1.5°C at the end of 2050, whereas it is 3.9°C at the end of century with respect to 1970-1999. The pattern of projected precipitation changes shows considerable spatial variability, with an increase in precipitation over the peninsular of India and coastal areas and, either no change or decrease further inland. From the analysis of a larger ensemble of global climate models using the A1B scenario a wide spread warming (~3.2°C) and an overall increase (~8.5%) in mean monsoon precipitation by the end of the 21st century is very likely. The influence of the driving GCM on the projected precipitation change simulated with each RCM is as strong as the variability among the RCMs driven with one. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Evaluating Antarctic sea ice predictability at seasonal to interannual timescales in global climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marchi, Sylvain; Fichefet, Thierry; Goosse, Hugues; Zunz, Violette; Tietsche, Steffen; Day, Jonny; Hawkins, Ed

2016-04-01

Unlike the rapid sea ice losses reported in the Arctic, satellite observations show an overall increase in Antarctic sea ice extent over recent decades. Although many processes have already been suggested to explain this positive trend, it remains the subject of current investigations. Understanding the evolution of the Antarctic sea ice turns out to be more complicated than for the Arctic for two reasons: the lack of observations and the well-known biases of climate models in the Southern Ocean. Irrespective of those issues, another one is to determine whether the positive trend in sea ice extent would have been predictable if adequate observations and models were available some decades ago. This study of Antarctic sea ice predictability is carried out using 6 global climate models (HadGEM1.2, MPI-ESM-LR, GFDL CM3, EC-Earth V2, MIROC 5.2 and ECHAM 6-FESOM) which are all part of the APPOSITE project. These models are used to perform hindcast simulations in a perfect model approach. The predictive skill is estimated thanks to the PPP (Potential Prognostic Predictability) and the ACC (Anomaly Correlation Coefficient). The former is a measure of the uncertainty of the ensemble while the latter assesses the accuracy of the prediction. These two indicators are applied to different variables related to sea ice, in particular the total sea ice extent and the ice edge location. This first model intercomparison study about sea ice predictability in the Southern Ocean aims at giving a general overview of Antarctic sea ice predictability in current global climate models.

Predicting the Timing of Cherry Blossoms in Washington, DC and Mid-Atlantic States in Response to Climate Change

PubMed Central

Chung, Uran; Mack, Liz; Yun, Jin I.; Kim, Soo-Hyung

2011-01-01

Cherry blossoms, an icon of spring, are celebrated in many cultures of the temperate region. For its sensitivity to winter and early spring temperatures, the timing of cherry blossoms is an ideal indicator of the impacts of climate change on tree phenology. Here, we applied a process-based phenology model for temperate deciduous trees to predict peak bloom dates (PBD) of flowering cherry trees (Prunus×yedoensis ‘Yoshino’ and Prunus serrulata ‘Kwanzan’) in the Tidal Basin, Washington, DC and the surrounding Mid-Atlantic States in response to climate change. We parameterized the model with observed PBD data from 1991 to 2010. The calibrated model was tested against independent datasets of the past PBD data from 1951 to 1970 in the Tidal Basin and more recent PBD data from other locations (e.g., Seattle, WA). The model performance against these independent data was satisfactory (Yoshino: r2 = 0.57, RMSE = 6.6 days, bias = 0.9 days and Kwanzan: r2 = 0.76, RMSE = 5.5 days, bias = −2.0 days). We then applied the model to forecast future PBD for the region using downscaled climate projections based on IPCC's A1B and A2 emissions scenarios. Our results indicate that PBD at the Tidal Basin are likely to be accelerated by an average of five days by 2050 s and 10 days by 2080 s for these cultivars under a mid-range (A1B) emissions scenario projected by ECHAM5 general circulation model. The acceleration is likely to be much greater (13 days for 2050 s and 29 days for 2080s ) under a higher (A2) emissions scenario projected by CGCM2 general circulation model. Our results demonstrate the potential impacts of climate change on the timing of cherry blossoms and illustrate the utility of a simple process-based phenology model for developing adaptation strategies to climate change in horticulture, conservation planning, restoration and other related disciplines. PMID:22087317

Regional Climate Change and Development of Public Health Decision Aids

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hegedus, A. M.; Darmenova, K.; Grant, F.; Kiley, H.; Higgins, G. J.; Apling, D.

2011-12-01

According to the World Heath Organization (WHO) climate change is a significant and emerging threat to public health, and changes the way we must look at protecting vulnerable populations. Worldwide, the occurrence of some diseases and other threats to human health depend predominantly on local climate patterns. Rising average temperatures, in combination with changing rainfall patterns and humidity levels, alter the lifecycle and regional distribution of certain disease-carrying vectors, such as mosquitoes, ticks and rodents. In addition, higher surface temperatures will bring heat waves and heat stress to urban regions worldwide and will likely increase heat-related health risks. A growing body of scientific evidence also suggests an increase in extreme weather events such as floods, droughts and hurricanes that can be destructive to human health and well-being. Therefore, climate adaptation and health decision aids are urgently needed by city planners and health officials to determine high risk areas, evaluate vulnerable populations and develop public health infrastructure and surveillance systems. To address current deficiencies in local planning and decision making with respect to regional climate change and its effect on human health, our research is focused on performing a dynamical downscaling with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to develop decision aids that translate the regional climate data into actionable information for users. WRF model is initialized with the Max Planck Institute European Center/Hamburg Model version 5 (ECHAM5) General Circulation Model simulations forced with the Special Report on Emissions (SRES) A1B emissions scenario. Our methodology involves development of climatological indices of extreme weather, quantifying the risk of occurrence of water/rodent/vector-borne diseases as well as developing various heat stress related decision aids. Our results indicate that the downscale simulations provide the necessary detailed output required by state and local governments and the private sector to develop climate adaptation plans with respect to human health.

Simulating the Snowball Stratosphere and Its Influence On CO2 Inference

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Graham, R. J.; Shaw, T.; Abbot, D. S.

2017-12-01

According to the snowball Earth hypothesis, a large quantity of CO2 must build up during an event in order to cause eventual deglaciation. One prediction of this model is a depletion in atmospheric oxygen-17 as a result of stratospheric chemical reactions, which has been observed in preserved barite minerals. This represents one of the most dramatic and compelling pieces of evidence in support of the snowball Earth hypothesis. The inference of anomalous atmospheric oxygen-17 based on measurements of barite minerals, however, was made by assuming that the stratosphere-troposphere mass exchange rate and mixing within the stratosphere were the same as the present. In this contribution we test these assumptions with simulations of modern and snowball atmospheric conditions using the global climate model ECHAM5. Our simulations are still running, but we will have results to report by December.

AN INITIAL ASSESSMENT OF THE CLIMATE IMPACT OF SECONDARY ORGANIC AEROSOLS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Donnell, D.; Feichter, J.

2009-12-01

Atmospheric aerosols influence the Earth’s climate by absorbing and scattering solar radiation (the direct effect) and by altering the properties of clouds (indirect effects). Measurements have shown that a substantial fraction of the tropospheric aerosol burden consists of organic compounds. Hundreds of different organic species have been identified. While progress has been made in the understanding of the role of certain aerosol types in the climate system, that of organic aerosols remains poorly understood and the climate influences resulting from their presence poorly constrained. Organic aerosols are emitted directly from the surface (primary organic aerosols, POA) and are also formed in the atmosphere from gaseous precursors by oxidation reactions (secondary organic aerosols, SOA). Both biogenic and anthropogenic precursors have been identified. Biogenic emissions of aerosol precursors are known to be climate-dependent. Thus, a bi-directional dependency exists between the biosphere and the atmosphere, whereby aerosols of biogenic origin influence the climate system, which in turn affects biogenic aerosol precursor production. This study builds upon the global aerosol-climate model ECHAM5/HAM and adds techniques to model SOA as well as the necessary global emission inventories. Emission of biogenic precursors is calculated online. Formation of SOA is modeled by the well-known two-product model of SOA formation. SOA is subject to the same aerosol microphysics and sink processes as other modeled species (sulphate, black carbon, primary organic carbon, sea salt and dust). The aerosol radiative effects are calculated on a size resolved basis, and the aerosol scheme is coupled to the model cloud microphysics, permitting estimation of both direct and indirect aerosol effects. The following results will be discussed: (i) Estimation of the direct and indirect effects of biogenic and anthropogenic SOA, (ii) Estimation of the sign and magnitude of the biospheric feedback (through biogenic aerosol precursor emission) on the climate system, and (iii) Identification of physical processes and aerosol physical properties that need further experimental investigation in order to improve our understanding of the climate impact of SOA

10Be measured in a GRIP snow pit and modeled using the ECHAM5-HAM general circulation model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heikkilä, U.; Beer, J.; Jouzel, J.; Feichter, J.; Kubik, P.

2008-03-01

10Be measured in a Greenland Ice Core Project (GRIP) snow pit (1986-1990) with a seasonal resolution is compared with the ECHAM5-HAM GCM run. The mean modeled 10Be concentration in ice (1.0.104 atoms/g) agrees well with the measured value (1.2.104 atoms/g). The measured 10Be deposition flux (88 atoms/m2/s) also agrees well with the modeled flux (69 atoms/m2/s) and the measured precipitation rate (0.67 mm/day) agrees with the modeled rate (0.61 mm/day). The mean surface temperature of -31°C estimated from δ 18O is lower than the temperature measured at a near-by weather station (-29°C) and the modeled temperature (-26°C). During the 5-year period the concentrations and deposition fluxes, both measured and modeled, show a decreasing trend consistent with the increase in the solar activity. The variability of the measured and modeled concentrations and deposition fluxes is very similar suggesting that the variability is linked to a variability in production rather than the local meteorology.

Analysis of high-resolution simulations for the Black Forest region from a point of view of tourism climatology - a comparison between two regional climate models (REMO and CLM)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Endler, Christina; Matzarakis, Andreas

2011-03-01

An analysis of climate simulations from a point of view of tourism climatology based on two regional climate models, namely REMO and CLM, was performed for a regional domain in the southwest of Germany, the Black Forest region, for two time frames, 1971-2000 that represents the twentieth century climate and 2021-2050 that represents the future climate. In that context, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios A1B and B1 are used. The analysis focuses on human-biometeorological and applied climatologic issues, especially for tourism purposes - that means parameters belonging to thermal (physiologically equivalent temperature, PET), physical (precipitation, snow, wind), and aesthetic (fog, cloud cover) facets of climate in tourism. In general, both models reveal similar trends, but differ in their extent. The trend of thermal comfort is contradicting: it tends to decrease in REMO, while it shows a slight increase in CLM. Moreover, REMO reveals a wider range of future climate trends than CLM, especially for sunshine, dry days, and heat stress. Both models are driven by the same global coupled atmosphere-ocean model ECHAM5/MPI-OM. Because both models are not able to resolve meso- and micro-scale processes such as cloud microphysics, differences between model results and discrepancies in the development of even those parameters (e.g., cloud formation and cover) are due to different model parameterization and formulation. Climatic changes expected by 2050 are small compared to 2100, but may have major impacts on tourism as for example, snow cover and its duration are highly vulnerable to a warmer climate directly affecting tourism in winter. Beyond indirect impacts are of high relevance as they influence tourism as well. Thus, changes in climate, natural environment, demography, tourists' demands, among other things affect economy in general. The analysis of the CLM results and its comparison with the REMO results complete the analysis performed within the project Climate Trends and Sustainable Development of Tourism in Coastal and Low Mountain Range Regions (CAST) funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF).

Effect of anthropogenic aerosol emissions on precipitation in warm conveyor belts in the western North Pacific in winter - a model study with ECHAM6-HAM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Joos, Hanna; Madonna, Erica; Witlox, Kasja; Ferrachat, Sylvaine; Wernli, Heini; Lohmann, Ulrike

2017-05-01

While there is a clear impact of aerosol particles on the radiation balance, whether and how aerosol particles influence precipitation is controversial. Here we use the ECHAM6-HAM global climate model coupled to an aerosol module to analyse whether an impact of anthropogenic aerosol particles on the timing and amount of precipitation can be detected in North Pacific warm conveyor belts. Warm conveyor belts are the strongest precipitation-producing airstreams in extratropical cyclones and are identified here with a Lagrangian technique, i.e. by objectively identifying the most strongly ascending trajectories in North Pacific cyclones. These conveyor belts have been identified separately in 10-year ECHAM6-HAM simulations with present-day and pre-industrial aerosol conditions. Then, the evolution of aerosols and cloud properties has been analysed in detail along the identified warm conveyor belt trajectories. The results show that, under present-day conditions, some warm conveyor belt trajectories are strongly polluted (i.e. high concentrations of black carbon and sulfur dioxide) due to horizontal transport from eastern Asia to the oceanic region where warm conveyor belts start their ascent. In these polluted trajectories a weak delay and reduction of precipitation formation occurs compared to clean warm conveyor belt trajectories. However, all warm conveyor belts consist of both polluted and clean trajectories at the time they start their ascent, and the typically more abundant clean trajectories strongly reduce the aerosol impact from the polluted trajectories. The main conclusion then is that the overall amount of precipitation is comparable in pre-industrial conditions, when all warm conveyor belt trajectories are clean, and in present-day conditions, when warm conveyor belts consist of a mixture of clean and polluted trajectories.

Sensitivity of Statistical Downscaling Techniques to Reanalysis Choice and Implications for Regional Climate Change Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manzanas, R., Sr.; Brands, S.; San Martin, D., Sr.; Gutiérrez, J. M., Sr.

2014-12-01

This work shows that local-scale climate projections obtained by means of statistical downscaling are sensitive to the choice of reanalysis used for calibration. To this aim, a Generalized Linear Model (GLM) approach is applied to downscale daily precipitation in the Philippines. First, the GLMs are trained and tested -under a cross-validation scheme- separately for two distinct reanalyses (ERA-Interim and JRA-25) for the period 1981-2000. When the observed and downscaled time-series are compared, the attained performance is found to be sensitive to the reanalysis considered if climate change signal bearing variables (temperature and/or specific humidity) are included in the predictor field. Moreover, performance differences are shown to be in correspondence with the disagreement found between the raw predictors from the two reanalyses. Second, the regression coefficients calibrated either with ERA-Interim or JRA-25 are subsequently applied to the output of a Global Climate Model (MPI-ECHAM5) in order to assess the sensitivity of local-scale climate change projections (up to 2100) to reanalysis choice. In this case, the differences detected in present climate conditions are considerably amplified, leading to "delta-change" estimates differing by up to a 35% (on average for the entire country) depending on the reanalysis used for calibration. Therefore, reanalysis choice is shown to importantly contribute to the uncertainty of local-scale climate change projections, and, consequently, should be treated with equal care as other, well-known, sources of uncertainty -e.g., the choice of the GCM and/or downscaling method.- Implications of the results for the entire tropics, as well as for the Model Output Statistics downscaling approach are also briefly discussed.

Response of North American freshwater lakes to simulated future climates

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hostetler, S.W.; Small, E.E.

1999-01-01

We apply a physically based lake model to assess the response of North American lakes to future climate conditions as portrayed by the transient trace-gas simulations conducted with the Max Planck Institute (ECHAM4) and the Canadian Climate Center (CGCM1) atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (A/OGCMs). To quantify spatial patterns of lake responses (temperature, mixing, ice cover, evaporation) we ran the lake model for theoretical lakes of specified area, depth, and transparency over a uniformly spaced (50 km) grid. The simulations were conducted for two 10-year periods that represent present climatic conditions and those around the time of CO2 doubling. Although the climate model output produces simulated lake responses that differ in specific regional details, there is broad agreement with regard to the direction and area of change. In particular, lake temperatures are generally warmer in the future as a result of warmer climatic conditions and a substantial loss (> 100 days/yr) of winter ice cover. Simulated summer lake temperatures are higher than 30??C ever the Midwest and south, suggesting the potential for future disturbance of existing aquatic ecosystems. Overall increases in lake evaporation combine with disparate changes in A/OGCM precipitation to produce future changes in net moisture (precipitation minus evaporation) that are of less fidelity than those of lake temperature.

A COMPARATIVE STUDY ON SPECTRAL ENERGETICS BETWEEN THE NCEP reanalysisII in current climate AND MODEL ECHAM5 in future scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aranha, A. F.; Veiga, J. P.

2013-12-01

Saltzman (1957) starting Lorenz Cycle (1955) derived a set of equations that show the energy contained in the basic state and the disturbed atmosphere, decomposing in various fields disturbance wave type, so as to quantify and analyze the energy of these disorders according to their number or wavelength. Based on the methodology Saltzman, this paper aims a comparative study between the energy of the disturbed state between the NCEP reanalysis-II for the current weather conditions and model ECHAM5 scenarios for future conditions of increased concentration of greenhouse gases (RCP26, RCP45 and RCP85), considering the terms of the generation of available potential energy to nth wave due to diabatic heating, represented by (Gn), the potential energy of nth wave (Pn) and kinetic energy of nth wave (Kn), as well as the conversion of energy between kinetic energy and potential energy nth wave of nth wave, given by (Cn). Two data sets were used in the calculation of the aforementioned terms. For the data set of NCEP and ECHAM5 were used variables, temperature (T), orthogonal wind components (u, v, w) and geopotential height (L), considering daily shared values on a regular grid with spatial resolutions of 2,5 x 2.5 and 1.875 x 1.875 graus, distributed on 12 and 15 levels of pressure (1000.0, 925.0, 850.0, 700.0, 600.0, 500.0, 400.0, 300.0, 250.0, 200.0, 150.0, 100.0 hPa), (1000.0, 850.0, 700.0, 500.0, 250.0, 150.0, 100.0, 70.0, 50.0, 30.0, 10.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.3, 0.1 hPa) for the period of 1979-1999 and 2090-2100, respectively. The results show that most of the kinetic energy of disturbance to nth waves is concentrated in the first 15 wave numbers, both for the weather-NCEP II as to ECHAM5, having more significant increase in the profile and having a RCP85 energy cascade. This increase in kinetic energy was expected due to the increased energy in the system. For Pn, increasing the potential energy is also expected in view of the increased diabatic heating, but the energy jump is large spectrum in the range of 1 a 5, growth or accumulation of energy is visible in the figure wave, almost double the energy accumulated by the wave number 2, a derivative obeying the strong energy in the wave spectrum. We can conclude that the energy contained in a nonlinear way on the biggest waves are not shared aplenty. According to the results, the term conversion in Kn Pn, represented by Cn, reveals important characteristics in the energy spectrum. This we note that Pn feeds both the planetary waves and intermediate waves as synoptic scale. However, the production of Kn from Pn is added to the first wave specifically. It is also observed that Cn does not show large variations along the spectral profile. It is noteworthy that the energy conversions of RCP's are much smaller than the energy conversions NCEP-II, indicating that when there are increased concentrations of greenhouse gases is increasing Gen. therefore increased Pn and fall in Cn. Negative values of Cn are likely to occur, which would represent the conversion of kinetic energy into potential energy of the waves of the basic state.

Origin and Variability of Upper Tropospheric Nitrogen Oxides and Ozone at Northern Mid-Latitudes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Grewe, V.; Brunner, D.; Dameris, M.; Grenfell, J. L.; Hein, R.; Shindell, D.; Staehelin, J.

1999-01-01

Measurements of NO(x) and ozone performed during the NOXAR project are compared with results from the coupled chemistry-climate models ECHAM4.L39(DLR)/CHEM and GISS-model. The measurements are based on flights between Europe and the East coast of America and between Europe and the Far East in the latitude range 40 deg N to 65 deg N. The comparison concentrates on tropopause altitudes and reveals strong longitudinal variations of seasonal mean NO,, of 200 pptv. Either model reproduced strong variations 3 km below but not at the tropopause, indicating a strong missing NO(x) or NO(y) sink over remote areas, e.g. NO(x) to HNO3 conversion by OH from additional OH sources or HNO3 wash-out. Vertical profiles show maximum NO(x) values 2-3 km below the tropopause with a strong seasonal cycle. ECHAM4.L39(DLR)/CHEM reproduces a maximum, although located at the tropopause with a less pronounced seasonal cycle, whereas the GISS model reproduces the seasonal cycle but not the profile's shape due to its coarser vertical resolution. A comparison of NO(x) frequency distributions reveals that both models are capable of reproducing the observed variability, except that ECHAM4.L39(DLR)/CHEM shows no very high NO(x) mixing ratios. Ozone mean values, vertical profiles and frequency distributions are much better reproduced in either model, indicating that the NO(x) frequency distribution, namely the most frequent NO(x) mixing ratio, is more important for the tropospheric photochemical ozone production than its mean value. Both models show that among all sources, NO(x) from lightning contributes most to the seasonal cycle of NO(x) at tropopause altitudes. The impact of lightning in the upper troposphere on NO(x) does not vary strongly with altitude, whereas the impact of surface emissions decreases with altitude. However, the models show significant differences in lightning induced NO(x) concentrations, especially in winter, which may be related to the different treatment of the lower stratospheric coupling between dynamics and chemistry.

Potential modulations of pre-monsoon aerosols during El Niño: impact on Indian summer monsoon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fadnavis, S.; Roy, Chaitri; Sabin, T. P.; Ayantika, D. C.; Ashok, K.

2017-10-01

The potential role of aerosol loading on the Indian summer monsoon rainfall during the El Niño years are examined using satellite-derived observations and a state of the art fully interactive aerosol-chemistry-climate model. The Aerosol Index (AI) from TOMS (1978-2005) and Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) from MISR spectroradiometer (2000-2010) indicate a higher-than-normal aerosol loading over the Indo-Gangetic plain (IGP) during the pre-monsoon season with a concurrent El Niño. Sensitivity experiments using ECHAM5-HAMMOZ climate model suggests that this enhanced loading of pre-monsoon absorbing aerosols over the Indo-Gangetic plain can reduce the drought during El Niño years by invoking the `Elevated-Heat-Pump' mechanism through an anomalous aerosol-induced warm core in the atmospheric column. This anomalous heating upshot the relative strengthening of the cross-equatorial moisture inflow associated with the monsoon and eventually reduces the severity of drought during El Niño years. The findings are subject to the usual limitations such as the uncertainties in observations, and limited number of El Niño years (during the study period).

Projected future wave climate in the NW Mediterranean Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Casas-Prat, M.; Sierra, J. P.

2013-07-01

Projected future regional wave climate scenarios at a high temporal-spatial scale were obtained for the NW Mediterranean Sea, using five combinations of regional-global circulation models. Changes in wave variables were analyzed and related to the variations of the forcing wind projections, while also evaluating the evolution of the presence of the different types of sea states. To assess the significance of the changes produced, a bootstrap-based method was proposed, which accounts for the autocorrelation of data and correctly reproduces the extremes. For the mean climate, relative changes of Hs up to ±10% were obtained, whereas they were around ±20% for the extreme climate. In mean terms, variations of Hs are similar to those associated with wind speed but are enhanced/attenuated, respectively, when fetch conditions are favorable/unfavorable. In general, most notable alterations are not in the Hs magnitude but rather in its direction. In this regard, during the winter season, it is interesting to note that the significant deviations between the results derived from the two global circulation models are larger than those between regional models. ECHAM5 simulated an enhanced west wind flow that is translated into more frequent W-NW waves, whereas the HadCM3Q3 global model gives rise to the east component, which contributes to a higher intensity and number of storms coming from such a direction and directly affects the wind-sea/swell distribution of coastal stretches that face east, like the Catalan coast. Different patterns of change were obtained during the summer when a common rise of NE-E waves was found.

Combined effects of projected sea level rise, storm surge, and peak river flows on water levels in the Skagit Floodplain

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hamman, Josheph J; Hamlet, Alan F.; Fuller, Roger; Grossman, Eric E.

2016-01-01

Current understanding of the combined effects of sea level rise (SLR), storm surge, and changes in river flooding on near-coastal environments is very limited. This project uses a suite of numerical models to examine the combined effects of projected future climate change on flooding in the Skagit floodplain and estuary. Statistically and dynamically downscaled global climate model scenarios from the ECHAM-5 GCM were used as the climate forcings. Unregulated daily river flows were simulated using the VIC hydrology model, and regulated river flows were simulated using the SkagitSim reservoir operations model. Daily tidal anomalies (TA) were calculated using a regression approach based on ENSO and atmospheric pressure forcing simulated by the WRF regional climate model. A 2-D hydrodynamic model was used to estimate water surface elevations in the Skagit floodplain using resampled hourly hydrographs keyed to regulated daily flood flows produced by the reservoir simulation model, and tide predictions adjusted for SLR and TA. Combining peak annual TA with projected sea level rise, the historical (1970–1999) 100-yr peak high water level is exceeded essentially every year by the 2050s. The combination of projected sea level rise and larger floods by the 2080s yields both increased flood inundation area (+ 74%), and increased average water depth (+ 25 cm) in the Skagit floodplain during a 100-year flood. Adding sea level rise to the historical FEMA 100-year flood resulted in a 35% increase in inundation area by the 2040's, compared to a 57% increase when both SLR and projected changes in river flow were combined.

Climate and land use changes effects on soil organic carbon stocks in a Mediterranean semi-natural area.

PubMed

Lozano-García, Beatriz; Muñoz-Rojas, Miriam; Parras-Alcántara, Luis

2017-02-01

A thorough knowledge of the effects of climate and land use changes on the soil carbon pool is critical to planning effective strategies for adaptation and mitigation in future scenarios of global climate and land use change. In this study, we used CarboSOIL model to predict changes in soil organic carbon stocks in a semi-natural area of Southern Spain in three different time horizons (2040, 2070, 2100), considering two general circulation models (BCM2 and ECHAM5) and three IPCC scenarios (A1b, A2, B2). The effects of potential land use changes from natural vegetation (Mediterranean evergreen oak woodland) to agricultural land (olive grove and cereal) on soil organic carbon stocks were also evaluated. Predicted values of SOC contents correlated well those measured (R2 ranging from 0.71 at 0-25cm to 0.97 at 50-75cm) showing the efficiency of the model. Results showed substantial differences among time horizons, climate and land use scenarios and soil depth with larger decreases of soil organic carbon stocks in the long term (2100 time horizon) and particularly in olive groves. The combination of climate and land use scenarios (in particular conversion from current 'dehesa' to olive groves) resulted in yet higher losses of soil organic carbon stocks, e.g. -30, -15 and -33% in the 0-25, 25-50 and 50-75cm sections respectively. This study shows the importance of soil organic carbon stocks assessment under both climate and land use scenarios at different soil sections and point towards possible directions for appropriate land use management in Mediterranean semi natural areas. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Aerosol nucleation and its role for clouds and Earth's radiative forcing in the aerosol-climate model ECHAM5-HAM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kazil, J.; Stier, P.; Zhang, K.; Quaas, J.; Kinne, S.; O'Donnell, D.; Rast, S.; Esch, M.; Ferrachat, S.; Lohmann, U.; Feichter, J.

2010-05-01

Nucleation from the gas phase is an important source of aerosol particles in the Earth's atmosphere, contributing to the number of cloud condensation nuclei, which form cloud droplets. We have implemented in the aerosol-climate model ECHAM5-HAM a new scheme for neutral and charged nucleation of sulfuric acid and water based on laboratory data, and nucleation of an organic compound and sulfuric acid using a parametrization of cluster activation based on field measurements. We give details of the implementation, compare results with observations, and investigate the role of the individual aerosol nucleation mechanisms for clouds and the Earth's radiative budget. The results of our simulations are most consistent with observations when neutral and charged nucleation of sulfuric acid proceed throughout the troposphere and nucleation due to cluster activation is limited to the forested boundary layer. The globally averaged annual mean contributions of the individual nucleation processes to total absorbed solar short-wave radiation via the direct, semi-direct, indirect cloud-albedo and cloud-lifetime effects in our simulations are -1.15 W/m2 for charged H2SO4/H2O nucleation, -0.235 W/m2 for cluster activation, and -0.05 W/m2 for neutral H2SO4/H2O nucleation. The overall effect of nucleation is -2.55 W/m2, which exceeds the sum of the individual terms due to feedbacks and interactions in the model. Aerosol nucleation contributes over the oceans with -2.18 W/m2 to total absorbed solar short-wave radiation, compared to -0.37 W/m2 over land. We explain the higher effect of aerosol nucleation on Earth's radiative budget over the oceans with the larger area covered by ocean clouds, due to the larger contrast in albedo between clouds and the ocean surface compared to continents, and the larger susceptibility of pristine clouds owing to the saturation of effects. The large effect of charged nucleation in our simulations is not in contradiction with small effects seen in local measurements: over southern Finland, where cluster activation proceeds efficiently, we find that charged nucleation of sulfuric acid and water contributes on average less than 10% to ultrafine aerosol concentrations, in good agreement with observations.

Aerosol nucleation and its role for clouds and Earth's radiative forcing in the aerosol-climate model ECHAM5-HAM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kazil, J.; Stier, P.; Zhang, K.; Quaas, J.; Kinne, S.; O'Donnell, D.; Rast, S.; Esch, M.; Ferrachat, S.; Lohmann, U.; Feichter, J.

2010-11-01

Nucleation from the gas phase is an important source of aerosol particles in the Earth's atmosphere, contributing to the number of cloud condensation nuclei, which form cloud droplets. We have implemented in the aerosol-climate model ECHAM5-HAM a new scheme for neutral and charged nucleation of sulfuric acid and water based on laboratory data, and nucleation of an organic compound and sulfuric acid using a parametrization of cluster activation based on field measurements. We give details of the implementation, compare results with observations, and investigate the role of the individual aerosol nucleation mechanisms for clouds and the Earth's radiative forcing. The results of our simulations are most consistent with observations when neutral and charged nucleation of sulfuric acid proceed throughout the troposphere and nucleation due to cluster activation is limited to the forested boundary layer. The globally averaged annual mean contributions of the individual nucleation processes to total absorbed solar short-wave radiation via the direct, semi-direct, indirect cloud-albedo and cloud-lifetime effects in our simulations are -1.15 W/m2 for charged H2SO4/H2O nucleation, -0.235 W/m2 for cluster activation, and -0.05 W/m2 for neutral H2SO4/H2O nucleation. The overall effect of nucleation is -2.55 W/m2, which exceeds the sum of the individual terms due to feedbacks and interactions in the model. Aerosol nucleation contributes over the oceans with -2.18 W/m2 to total absorbed solar short-wave radiation, compared to -0.37 W/m2 over land. We explain the higher effect of aerosol nucleation on Earth's radiative forcing over the oceans with the larger area covered by ocean clouds, due to the larger contrast in albedo between clouds and the ocean surface compared to continents, and the larger susceptibility of pristine clouds owing to the saturation of effects. The large effect of charged nucleation in our simulations is not in contradiction with small effects seen in local measurements: over southern Finland, where cluster activation proceeds efficiently, we find that charged nucleation of sulfuric acid and water contributes on average less than 10% to ultrafine aerosol concentrations, in good agreement with observations.

Enhanced basal lubrication and the contribution of the Greenland ice sheet to future sea-level rise

PubMed Central

Shannon, Sarah R.; Payne, Antony J.; Bartholomew, Ian D.; van den Broeke, Michiel R.; Edwards, Tamsin L.; Fettweis, Xavier; Gagliardini, Olivier; Gillet-Chaulet, Fabien; Goelzer, Heiko; Hoffman, Matthew J.; Huybrechts, Philippe; Mair, Douglas W. F.; Nienow, Peter W.; Perego, Mauro; Price, Stephen F.; Smeets, C. J. P. Paul; Sole, Andrew J.; van de Wal, Roderik S. W.; Zwinger, Thomas

2013-01-01

We assess the effect of enhanced basal sliding on the flow and mass budget of the Greenland ice sheet, using a newly developed parameterization of the relation between meltwater runoff and ice flow. A wide range of observations suggest that water generated by melt at the surface of the ice sheet reaches its bed by both fracture and drainage through moulins. Once at the bed, this water is likely to affect lubrication, although current observations are insufficient to determine whether changes in subglacial hydraulics will limit the potential for the speedup of flow. An uncertainty analysis based on our best-fit parameterization admits both possibilities: continuously increasing or bounded lubrication. We apply the parameterization to four higher-order ice-sheet models in a series of experiments forced by changes in both lubrication and surface mass budget and determine the additional mass loss brought about by lubrication in comparison with experiments forced only by changes in surface mass balance. We use forcing from a regional climate model, itself forced by output from the European Centre Hamburg Model (ECHAM5) global climate model run under scenario A1B. Although changes in lubrication generate widespread effects on the flow and form of the ice sheet, they do not affect substantial net mass loss; increase in the ice sheet’s contribution to sea-level rise from basal lubrication is projected by all models to be no more than 5% of the contribution from surface mass budget forcing alone. PMID:23940337

Enhanced basal lubrication and the contribution of the Greenland ice sheet to future sea-level rise.

PubMed

Shannon, Sarah R; Payne, Antony J; Bartholomew, Ian D; van den Broeke, Michiel R; Edwards, Tamsin L; Fettweis, Xavier; Gagliardini, Olivier; Gillet-Chaulet, Fabien; Goelzer, Heiko; Hoffman, Matthew J; Huybrechts, Philippe; Mair, Douglas W F; Nienow, Peter W; Perego, Mauro; Price, Stephen F; Smeets, C J P Paul; Sole, Andrew J; van de Wal, Roderik S W; Zwinger, Thomas

2013-08-27

We assess the effect of enhanced basal sliding on the flow and mass budget of the Greenland ice sheet, using a newly developed parameterization of the relation between meltwater runoff and ice flow. A wide range of observations suggest that water generated by melt at the surface of the ice sheet reaches its bed by both fracture and drainage through moulins. Once at the bed, this water is likely to affect lubrication, although current observations are insufficient to determine whether changes in subglacial hydraulics will limit the potential for the speedup of flow. An uncertainty analysis based on our best-fit parameterization admits both possibilities: continuously increasing or bounded lubrication. We apply the parameterization to four higher-order ice-sheet models in a series of experiments forced by changes in both lubrication and surface mass budget and determine the additional mass loss brought about by lubrication in comparison with experiments forced only by changes in surface mass balance. We use forcing from a regional climate model, itself forced by output from the European Centre Hamburg Model (ECHAM5) global climate model run under scenario A1B. Although changes in lubrication generate widespread effects on the flow and form of the ice sheet, they do not affect substantial net mass loss; increase in the ice sheet's contribution to sea-level rise from basal lubrication is projected by all models to be no more than 5% of the contribution from surface mass budget forcing alone.

Climate and health implications of future aerosol emission scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Partanen, Antti-Ilari; Landry, Jean-Sébastien; Damon Matthews, H.

2018-02-01

Anthropogenic aerosols have a net cooling effect on climate and also cause adverse health effects by degrading air quality. In this global-scale sensitivity study, we used a combination of the aerosol-climate model ECHAM-HAMMOZ and the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model to assess the climate and health effects of aerosols emissions from three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5) and two new (LOW and HIGH) aerosol emission scenarios derived from RCP4.5, but that span a wider spectrum of possible future aerosol emissions. All simulations had CO2 emissions and greenhouse gas forcings from RCP4.5. Aerosol forcing declined similarly in the standard RCP aerosol emission scenarios: the aerosol effective radiative forcing (ERF) decreased from -1.3 W m-2 in 2005 to between -0.1 W m-2 and -0.4 W m-2 in 2100. The differences in ERF were substantially larger between LOW (-0.02 W m-2 in 2100) and HIGH (-0.8 W m-2) scenarios. The global mean temperature difference between the simulations with standard RCP aerosol emissions was less than 0.18 °C, whereas the difference between LOW and HIGH reached 0.86 °C in 2061. In LOW, the rate of warming peaked at 0.48 °C per decade in the 2030s, whereas in HIGH it was the lowest of all simulations and never exceeded 0.23 °C per decade. Using present-day population density and baseline mortality rates for all scenarios, PM2.5-induced premature mortality was 2 371 800 deaths per year in 2010 and 525 700 in 2100 with RCP4.5 aerosol emissions; in HIGH, the premature mortality reached its maximum value of 2 780 800 deaths per year in 2030, whereas in LOW the premature mortality at 2030 was below 299 900 deaths per year. Our results show potential trade-offs in aerosol mitigation with respect to climate change and public health as ambitious reduction of aerosol emissions considerably increased warming while decreasing mortality.

The influence of land cover change in the Asian monsoon region on present-day and mid-Holocene climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dallmeyer, A.; Claussen, M.

2011-02-01

Using the general circulation model ECHAM5/JSBACH, we investigate the biogeophysical effect of large-scale afforestation and deforestation in the Asian monsoon domain on present-day and mid-Holocene climate. We demonstrate that the applied land cover change does not only modify the local climate but also change the climate in North Africa and the Middle East via teleconnections. Deforestation in the Asian monsoon domain enhances the rainfall in North Africa. In parts of the Sahara summer precipitation is more than doubled. In contrast, afforestation strongly decreases summer rainfall in the Middle East and even leads to the cessation of the rainfall-activity in some parts of this region. Regarding the local climate, deforestation results in a reduction of precipitation and a cooler climate as grass mostly has a higher albedo than forests. However, in the core region of the Asian monsoon the decrease of evaporative cooling in the monsoon season overcompensates this signal and results in a net warming. Afforestation has mainly the opposite effect, although the pattern of change is less clear. It leads to more precipitation in most parts of the Asian monsoon domain and a warmer climate except for the southern regions where a stronger evaporation decreases near-surface temperatures in the monsoon season. When prescribing mid-Holocene insolation, the pattern of local precipitation change differs. Afforestation particularly increases monsoon rainfall in the region along the Yellow River which was the settlement area of major prehistoric cultures. In this region, the effect of land cover change on precipitation is half as large as the orbitally-induced precipitation change. Thus, our model results reveal that mid- to late-Holocene land cover change could strongly have contributed to the decreasing Asian monsoon precipitation during the Holocene known from reconstructions.

The influence of land cover change in the Asian monsoon region on present-day and mid-Holocene climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dallmeyer, A.; Claussen, M.

2011-06-01

Using the general circulation model ECHAM5/JSBACH, we investigate the biogeophysical effect of large-scale afforestation and deforestation in the Asian monsoon domain on present-day and mid-Holocene climate. We demonstrate that the applied land cover change does not only modify the local climate but also change the climate in North Africa and the Middle East via teleconnections. Deforestation in the Asian monsoon domain enhances the rainfall in North Africa. In parts of the Sahara summer precipitation is more than doubled. In contrast, afforestation strongly decreases summer rainfall in the Middle East and even leads to the cessation of the rainfall-activity in some parts of this region. Regarding the local climate, deforestation results in a reduction of precipitation and a cooler climate as grass mostly has a higher albedo than forests. However, in the core region of the Asian monsoon the decrease in evaporative cooling in the monsoon season overcompensates this signal and results in a net warming. Afforestation has mainly the opposite effect, although the pattern of change is less clear. It leads to more precipitation in most parts of the Asian monsoon domain and a warmer climate except for the southern regions where a stronger evaporation decreases near-surface temperatures in the monsoon season. When prescribing mid-Holocene insolation, the pattern of local precipitation change differs. Afforestation particularly increases monsoon rainfall in the region along the Yellow River which was the settlement area of major prehistoric cultures. In this region, the effect of land cover change on precipitation is half as large as the orbitally-induced precipitation change. Thus, our model results reveal that mid- to late-Holocene land cover change could strongly have contributed to the decreasing Asian monsoon precipitation during the Holocene known from reconstructions.

Implementing microscopic charcoal in a global climate-aerosol model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gilgen, Anina; Lohmann, Ulrike; Brügger, Sandra; Adolf, Carole; Ickes, Luisa

2017-04-01

Information about past fire activity is crucial to validate fire models and to better understand their deficiencies. Several paleofire records exist, among them ice cores and sediments, which preserve fire tracers like levoglucosan, vanillic acid, or charcoal particles. In this work, we implement microscopic charcoal particles (maximum dimension 10-100 μm) into the global climate-aerosol model ECHAM6.3HAM2.3. Since we are not aware of any reliable estimates of microscopic charcoal emissions, we scaled black carbon emissions from GFAS to capture the charcoal fluxes from a calibration dataset. After that, model results were compared with a validation dataset. The coarse model resolution (T63L31; 1.9°x1.9°) impedes the model to capture local variability of charcoal fluxes. However, variability on the global scale is pronounced due to highly-variable fire emissions. In future, we plan to model charcoal fluxes in the past 1-2 centuries using fire emissions provided from fire models. Furthermore, we intend to compare modelled charcoal fluxes from prescribed fire emissions with those calculated by an interactive fire model.

Does Dynamical Downscaling Introduce Novel Information in Climate Model Simulations of Recipitation Change over a Complex Topography Region?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tselioudis, George; Douvis, Costas; Zerefos, Christos

2012-01-01

Current climate and future climate-warming runs with the RegCM Regional Climate Model (RCM) at 50 and 11 km-resolutions forced by the ECHAM GCM are used to examine whether the increased resolution of the RCM introduces novel information in the precipitation field when the models are run for the mountainous region of the Hellenic peninsula. The model results are inter-compared with the resolution of the RCM output degraded to match that of the GCM, and it is found that in both the present and future climate runs the regional models produce more precipitation than the forcing GCM. At the same time, the RCM runs produce increases in precipitation with climate warming even though they are forced with a GCM that shows no precipitation change in the region. The additional precipitation is mostly concentrated over the mountain ranges, where orographic precipitation formation is expected to be a dominant mechanism. It is found that, when examined at the same resolution, the elevation heights of the GCM are lower than those of the averaged RCM in the areas of the main mountain ranges. It is also found that the majority of the difference in precipitation between the RCM and the GCM can be explained by their difference in topographic height. The study results indicate that, in complex topography regions, GCM predictions of precipitation change with climate warming may be dry biased due to the GCM smoothing of the regional topography.

Chemistry and dynamics of the Arctic winter 2015/2016: Simulations with the Chemistry-Climate Model EMAC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khosrawi, Farahnaz; Kirner, Ole; Sinnhuber, Bjoern-Martin; Ruhnke, Roland; Hoepfner, Michael; Woiwode, Wolfgang; Oelhaf, Hermann; Santee, Michelle L.; Manney, Gloria L.; Froidevaux, Lucien; Murtagh, Donal; Braesicke, Peter

2016-04-01

Model simulations of the Arctic winter 2015/2016 were performed with the atmospheric chemistry-climate model ECHAM5/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) for the POLSTRACC (Polar Stratosphere in a Changing Climate) project. The POLSTRACC project is a HALO mission (High Altitude and LOng Range Research Aircraft) that aims to investigate the structure, composition and evolution of the Arctic Upper Troposphere Lower Stratosphere (UTLS) in a changing climate. Especially, the chemical and physical processes involved in Arctic stratospheric ozone depletion, transport and mixing processes in the UTLS at high latitudes, polar stratospheric clouds as well as cirrus clouds are investigated. The model simulations were performed with a resolution of T42L90, corresponding to a quadratic Gaussian grid of approximately 2.8°× 2.8° degrees in latitude and longitude, and 90 vertical layers from the surface up to 0.01 hPa (approx. 80 km). A Newtonian relaxation technique of the prognostic variables temperature, vorticity, divergence and surface pressure towards ECMWF data was applied above the boundary layer and below 10 hPa, in order to nudge the model dynamics towards the observed meteorology. During the Arctic winter 2015/2016 a stable vortex formed in early December, with a cold pool where temperatures reached below the Nitric Acid Trihydrate (NAT) existence temperature of 195 K, thus allowing Polar Stratospheric Clouds (PSCs) to form. The early winter has been exceptionally cold and satellite observations indicate that sedimenting PSC particles have lead to denitrification as well as dehydration of stratospheric layers. In this presentation an overview of the chemistry and dynamics of the Arctic winter 2015/2016 as simulated with EMAC will be given and comparisons to satellite observations such as e.g. Aura/MLS and Odin/SMR will be shown.

Isoprene derived secondary organic aerosol in a global aerosol chemistry climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stadtler, Scarlet; Kühn, Thomas; Taraborrelli, Domenico; Kokkola, Harri; Schultz, Martin

2017-04-01

Secondary organic aerosol (SOA) impacts earth's climate and human health. Since its precursor chemistry and its formation are not fully understood, climate models cannot catch its direct and indirect effects. Global isoprene emissions are higher than any other non-methane hydrocarbons. Therefore, SOA from isoprene-derived, low volatile species (iSOA) is simulated using a global aerosol chemistry climate model ECHAM6-HAM-SALSA-MOZ. Isoprene oxidation in the chemistry model MOZ is following a novel semi-explicit scheme, embedded in a detailed atmospheric chemical mechanism. For iSOA formation four low volatile isoprene oxidation products were identified. The group method by Nanoonlal et al. 2008 was used to estimate their evaporation enthalpies ΔHvap. To calculate the saturation concentration C∗(T) the sectional aerosol model SALSA uses the gas phase concentrations simulated by MOZ and their corresponding ΔHvap to obtain the saturation vapor pressure p∗(T) from the Clausius Clapeyron equation. Subsequently, the saturation concentration is used to calculate the explicit kinetic partitioning of these compounds forming iSOA. Furthermore, the irreversible heterogeneous reactions of IEPOX and glyoxal from isoprene were included. The possibility of reversible heterogeneous uptake was ignored at this stage, leading to an upper estimate of the contribution of glyoxal to iSOA mass.

Effects of different representations of transport in the new EMAC-SWIFT chemistry climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scheffler, Janice; Langematz, Ulrike; Wohltmann, Ingo; Kreyling, Daniel; Rex, Markus

2017-04-01

It is well known that the representation of atmospheric ozone chemistry in weather and climate models is essential for a realistic simulation of the atmospheric state. Interactively coupled chemistry climate models (CCMs) provide a means to realistically simulate the interaction between atmospheric chemistry and dynamics. The calculation of chemistry in CCMs, however, is computationally expensive which renders the use of complex chemistry models not suitable for ensemble simulations or simulations with multiple climate change scenarios. In these simulations ozone is therefore usually prescribed as a climatological field or included by incorporating a fast linear ozone scheme into the model. While prescribed climatological ozone fields are often not aligned with the modelled dynamics, a linear ozone scheme may not be applicable for a wide range of climatological conditions. An alternative approach to represent atmospheric chemistry in climate models which can cope with non-linearities in ozone chemistry and is applicable to a wide range of climatic states is the Semi-empirical Weighted Iterative Fit Technique (SWIFT) that is driven by reanalysis data and has been validated against observational satellite data and runs of a full Chemistry and Transport Model. SWIFT has been implemented into the ECHAM/MESSy (EMAC) chemistry climate model that uses a modular approach to climate modelling where individual model components can be switched on and off. When using SWIFT in EMAC, there are several possibilities to represent the effect of transport inside the polar vortex: the semi-Lagrangian transport scheme of EMAC and a transport parameterisation that can be useful when using SWIFT in models not having transport of their own. Here, we present results of equivalent simulations with different handling of transport, compare with EMAC simulations with full interactive chemistry and evaluate the results with observations.

A multi-scale methodology for comparing GCM and RCM results over the Eastern Mediterranean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samuels, Rana; Krichak, Simon; Breitgand, Joseph; Alpert, Pinhas

2010-05-01

The importance of skillful climate modeling is increasingly being realized as results are being incorporated into environmental, economic, and even business planning. Global circulation models (GCMs) employed by the IPCC provide results at spatial scales of hundreds of kilometers, which is useful for understanding global trends but not appropriate for use as input into regional and local impacts models used to inform policy and development. To address this shortcoming, regional climate models (RCMs) which dynamically downscale the results of the GCMs are used. In this study we present first results of a dynamically downscaled RCM focusing on the Eastern Mediterranean region. For the historical 1960-2000 time period, results at a spatial scale of both 25 km and 50 km are compared with historical station data from 5 locations across Israel as well as with the results of 3 GCM models (ECHAM5, NOAA GFDL, and CCCMA) at annual, monthly and daily time scales. Results from a recently completed Japanese GCM at a spatial scale of 20 km are also included. For the historical validation period, we show that as spatial scale increases the skill in capturing annual and inter-annual temperature and rainfall also increases. However, for intra-seasonal rainfall characteristics important for hydrological and agricultural planning (eg. dry and wet spells, number of rain days) the GCM results (including the 20 km Japanese model) capture the historical trends better than the dynamically downscaled RegCM. For future scenarios of temperature and precipitation changes, we compare results across the models for the available time periods, generating a range of future trends.

Late quaternary climate, precipitation δ18O, and Indian monsoon variations over the Tibetan Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Jingmin; Ehlers, Todd A.; Werner, Martin; Mutz, Sebastian G.; Steger, Christian; Paeth, Heiko

2017-01-01

The Himalaya-Tibet orogen contains one of the largest modern topographic and climate gradients on Earth. Proxy data from the region provide a basis for understanding Tibetan Plateau paleo climate and paleo elevation reconstructions. Paleo climate model comparisons to proxy data compliment sparsely located data and can improve climate reconstructions. This study investigates temporal changes in precipitation, temperature and precipitation δ18O (δO18p) over the Himalaya-Tibet from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) to present. We conduct a series of atmospheric General Circulation Model (GCM, ECHAM5-wiso) experiments at discrete time slices including a Pre-industrial (PI, Pre-1850 AD), Mid Holocene (MH, 6 ka BP) and LGM (21 ka BP) simulations. Model predictions are compared with existing proxy records. Model results show muted climate changes across the plateau during the MH and larger changes occurring during the LGM. During the LGM surface temperatures are ∼ 2.0- 4.0 °C lower across the Himalaya and Tibet, and >5.0 °C lower at the northwest and northeast edge of the Tibetan Plateau. LGM mean annual precipitation is 200-600 mm/yr lower over on the Tibetan Plateau. Model and proxy data comparison shows a good agreement for the LGM, but large differences for the MH. Large differences are also present between MH proxy studies near each other. The precipitation weighted annual mean δ18Op lapse rate at the Himalaya is about 0.4 ‰ /km larger during the MH and 0.2 ‰ /km smaller during the LGM than during the PI. Finally, rainfall associated with the continental Indian monsoon (between 70°E-110°E and 10°N-30°N) is about 44% less in the LGM than during PI times. The LGM monsoon period is about one month shorter than in PI times. Taken together, these results document significant spatial and temporal changes in temperature, precipitation, and δ18Op over the last ∼21 ka. These changes are large enough to impact interpretations of proxy data and the intensity of the Indian monsoon.

Prediction of future climate change for the Blue Nile, using RCM nested in GCM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sayed, E.; Jeuland, M.; Aty, M.

2009-04-01

Although the Nile River Basin is rich in natural resources, it faces many challenges. Rainfall is highly variable across the region, on both seasonal and inter-annual scales. This variability makes the region vulnerable to droughts and floods. Many development projects involving Nile waters are currently underway, or being studied. These projects will lead to land-use patterns changes and water distribution and availability. It is thus important to assess the effects of a) these projects and b) evolving water resource management and policies, on regional hydrological processes. This paper seeks to establish a basis for evaluation of such impacts within the Blue Nile River sub-basin, using the RegCM3 Regional Climate Model to simulate interactions between the land surface and climatic processes. We first present results from application of this RCM model nested with downscaled outputs obtained from the ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 transient simulations for the 20th Century. We then investigate changes associated with mid-21st century emissions forcing of the SRES A1B scenario. The results obtained from the climate model are then fed as inputs to the Nile Forecast System (NFS), a hydrologic distributed rainfall runoff model of the Nile Basin, The interaction between climatic and hydrological processes on the land surface has been fully coupled. Rainfall patterns and evaporation rates have been generated using RegCM3, and the resulting runoff and Blue Nile streamflow patterns have been simulated using the NFS. This paper compares the results obtained from the RegCM3 climate model with observational datasets for precipitation and temperature from the Climate Research Unit (UK) and the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center GPCP (USA) for 1985-2000. The validity of the streamflow predictions from the NFS is assessed using historical gauge records. Finally, we present results from modeling of the A1B emissions scenario of the IPCC for the years 2034-2055. Our results indicate that future changes in rainfall may vary over different areas of the Upper Blue Nile catchment in Ethiopia. Our results suggest that there may be good reasons for developing climate models with finer spatial resolution than the more commonly used GCMs.

Major modes of short-term climate variability in the newly developed NUIST Earth System Model (NESM)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cao, Jian; Wang, Bin; Xiang, Baoqiang; Li, Juan; Wu, Tianjie; Fu, Xiouhua; Wu, Liguang; Min, Jinzhong

2015-05-01

A coupled earth system model (ESM) has been developed at the Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology (NUIST) by using version 5.3 of the European Centre Hamburg Model (ECHAM), version 3.4 of the Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean (NEMO), and version 4.1 of the Los Alamos sea ice model (CICE). The model is referred to as NUIST ESM1 (NESM1). Comprehensive and quantitative metrics are used to assess the model's major modes of climate variability most relevant to subseasonal-to-interannual climate prediction. The model's assessment is placed in a multi-model framework. The model yields a realistic annual mean and annual cycle of equatorial SST, and a reasonably realistic precipitation climatology, but has difficulty in capturing the spring-fall asymmetry and monsoon precipitation domains. The ENSO mode is reproduced well with respect to its spatial structure, power spectrum, phase locking to the annual cycle, and spatial structures of the central Pacific (CP)-ENSO and eastern Pacific (EP)-ENSO; however, the equatorial SST variability, biennial component of ENSO, and the amplitude of CP-ENSO are overestimated. The model captures realistic intraseasonal variability patterns, the vertical-zonal structures of the first two leading predictable modes of Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), and its eastward propagation; but the simulated MJO speed is significantly slower than observed. Compared with the T42 version, the high resolution version (T159) demonstrates improved simulation with respect to the climatology, interannual variance, monsoon-ENSO lead-lag correlation, spatial structures of the leading mode of the Asian-Australian monsoon rainfall variability, and the eastward propagation of the MJO.

Rainfall-aerosol relationships explained by wet scavenging and humidity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grandey, Benjamin S.; Gururaj, Anisha; Stier, Philip; Wagner, Till M.

2014-08-01

Relationships between precipitation rate and aerosol optical depth, the extinction of light by aerosol in an atmospheric column, have been observed in satellite-retrieved data. What are the reasons for these precipitation-aerosol relationships? We investigate relationships between convective precipitation rate (Rconv) and aerosol optical depth (τtot) using the ECHAM5-HAM aerosol-climate model. We show that negative Rconv-τtot relationships arise due to wet scavenging of aerosol. The apparent lack of negative Rconv-τtot relationships in satellite-retrieved data is likely because the satellite data do not sample wet scavenging events. When convective wet scavenging is excluded in the model, we find positive Rconv-τtot relationships in regions where convective precipitation is the dominant form of model precipitation. The spatial distribution of these relationships is in good agreement with satellite-based results. We further demonstrate that a substantial component of these positive relationships arises due to covariation with large-scale relative humidity. Although the interpretation of precipitation-aerosol relationships remains a challenging question, we suggest that progress can be made through a synergy between observations and models.

Initializing decadal climate predictions over the North Atlantic region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matei, Daniela Mihaela; Pohlmann, Holger; Jungclaus, Johann; Müller, Wolfgang; Haak, Helmuth; Marotzke, Jochem

2010-05-01

Decadal climate prediction aims to predict the internally-generated decadal climate variability in addition to externally-forced climate change signal. In order to achieve this it is necessary to start the predictions from the current climate state. In this study we investigate the forecast skill of the North Atlantic decadal climate predictions using two different ocean initialization strategies. First we apply an assimilation of ocean synthesis data provided by the GECCO project (Köhl and Stammer, 2008) as initial conditions for the coupled model ECHAM5/MPI-OM. Hindcast experiments are then performed over the period 1952-2001. An alternative approach is one in which the subsurface ocean temperature and salinity are diagnosed from an ensemble of ocean model runs forced by the NCEP-NCAR atmospheric reanalyzes for the period 1948-2007, then nudge into the coupled model to produce initial conditions for the hindcast experiments. An anomaly coupling scheme is used in both approaches to avoid the hindcast drift and the associated initial shock. Differences between the two assimilation approaches are discussed by comparing them with the observational data in key regions and processes. We asses the skill of the initialized decadal hindcast experiments against the prediction skill of the non-initialized hindcasts simulation. We obtain an overview of the regions with the highest predictability from the regional distribution of the anomaly correlation coefficients and RMSE for the SAT. For the first year the hindcast skill is increased over almost all ocean regions in the NCEP-forced approach. This increase in the hindcast skill for the 1 year lead time is somewhat reduced in the GECCO approach. At lead time 5yr and 10yr, the skill enhancement is still found over the North Atlantic and North Pacific regions. We also consider the potential predictability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and Nordic Seas Overflow by comparing the predicted values to the respective assimilation experiments. Hindcasts of Atlantic MOC and Denmark Strait Overflow show higher predictability than the comparison experiments without initialization and damped persistence predictions up to about 5-6 years.

Future projections of insured losses in the German private building sector following the A1B climatic change scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Held, H.; Gerstengarbe, F.-W.; Hattermann, F.; Pinto, J. G.; Ulbrich, U.; Böhm, U.; Born, K.; Büchner, M.; Donat, M. G.; Kücken, M.; Leckebusch, G. C.; Nissen, K.; Nocke, T.; Österle, H.; Pardowitz, T.; Werner, P. C.; Burghoff, O.; Broecker, U.; Kubik, A.

2012-04-01

We present an overview of a complementary-approaches impact project dealing with the consequences of climate change for the natural hazard branch of the insurance industry in Germany. The project was conducted by four academic institutions together with the German Insurance Association (GDV) and finalized in autumn 2011. A causal chain is modeled that goes from global warming projections over regional meteorological impacts to regional economic losses for private buildings, hereby fully covering the area of Germany. This presentation will focus on wind storm related losses, although the method developed had also been applied in part to hail and flood impact losses. For the first time, the GDV supplied their collected set of insurance cases, dating back for decades, for such an impact study. These data were used to calibrate and validate event-based damage functions which in turn were driven by three different types of regional climate models to generate storm loss projections. The regional models were driven by a triplet of ECHAM5 experiments following the A1B scenario which were found representative in the recent ENSEMBLES intercomparison study. In our multi-modeling approach we used two types of regional climate models that conceptually differ at maximum: a dynamical model (CCLM) and a statistical model based on the idea of biased bootstrapping (STARS). As a third option we pursued a hybrid approach (statistical-dynamical downscaling). For the assessment of climate change impacts, the buildings' infrastructure and their economic value is kept at current values. For all three approaches, a significant increase of average storm losses and extreme event return levels in the German private building sector is found for future decades assuming an A1B-scenario. However, the three projections differ somewhat in terms of magnitude and regional differentiation. We have developed a formalism that allows us to express the combined effect of multi-source uncertainty on return levels within the framework of a generalized Pareto distribution.

Modeling the water isotopes in Greenland precipitation 1959-2001 with the meso-scale model REMO-iso

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sjolte, J.; Hoffmann, G.; Johnsen, S. J.; Vinther, B. M.; Masson-Delmotte, V.; Sturm, C.

2011-09-01

Ice core studies have proved the δ18O in Greenland precipitation to be correlated to the phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). This subject has also been investigated in modeling studies. However, these studies have either had severe biases in the δ18O levels, or have not been designed to be compared directly with observations. In this study we nudge a meso-scale climate model fitted with stable water isotope diagnostics (REMO-iso) to follow the actual weather patterns for the period 1959-2001. We evaluate this simulation using meteorological observations from stations along the Greenland coast, and δ18O from several Greenland ice core stacks and Global Network In Precipitation (GNIP) data from Greenland, Iceland and Svalbard. The REMO-iso output explains up to 40% of the interannual δ18O variability observed in ice cores, which is comparable to the model performance for precipitation. In terms of reproducing the observed variability the global model, ECHAM4-iso performs on the same level as REMO-iso. However, REMO-iso has smaller biases in δ18O and improved representation of the observed spatial δ18O-temperature slope compared to ECHAM4-iso. Analysis of the main modes of winter variability of δ18O shows a coherent signal in Central and Western Greenland similar to results from ice cores. The NAO explains 20% of the leading δ18O pattern. Based on the model output we suggest that methods to reconstruct the NAO from Greenland ice cores employ both δ18O and accumulation records.

Impact of physical permafrost processes on hydrological change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hagemann, Stefan; Blome, Tanja; Beer, Christian; Ekici, Altug

2015-04-01

Permafrost or perennially frozen ground is an important part of the terrestrial cryosphere; roughly one quarter of Earth's land surface is underlain by permafrost. As it is a thermal phenomenon, its characteristics are highly dependent on climatic factors. The impact of the currently observed warming, which is projected to persist during the coming decades due to anthropogenic CO2 input, certainly has effects for the vast permafrost areas of the high northern latitudes. The quantification of these effects, however, is scientifically still an open question. This is partly due to the complexity of the system, where several feedbacks are interacting between land and atmosphere, sometimes counterbalancing each other. Moreover, until recently, many global circulation models (GCMs) and Earth system models (ESMs) lacked the sufficient representation of permafrost physics in their land surface schemes. Within the European Union FP7 project PAGE21, the land surface scheme JSBACH of the Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology ESM (MPI-ESM) has been equipped with the representation of relevant physical processes for permafrost studies. These processes include the effects of freezing and thawing of soil water for both energy and water cycles, thermal properties depending on soil water and ice contents, and soil moisture movement being influenced by the presence of soil ice. In the present study, it will be analysed how these permafrost relevant processes impact projected hydrological changes over northern hemisphere high latitude land areas. For this analysis, the atmosphere-land part of MPI-ESM, ECHAM6-JSBACH, is driven by prescribed SST and sea ice in an AMIP2-type setup with and without the newly implemented permafrost processes. Observed SST and sea ice for 1979-1999 are used to consider induced changes in the simulated hydrological cycle. In addition, simulated SST and sea ice are taken from a MPI-ESM simulation conducted for CMIP5 following the RCP8.5 scenario. The corresponding simulations with ECHAM6-JSBACH are used to assess differences in projected hydrological changes induced by the permafrost relevant processes.

Assessing the capability of high resolution climatic model experiments to simulate Mediterranean cyclonic tracks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hatzaki, M.; Flocas, H. A.; Giannakopoulos, C.; Kostopoulou, E.; Kouroutzoglou, I.; Keay, K.; Simmonds, I.

2010-09-01

In this study, a comparison of a reanalysis driven simulation to a GCM driven simulation of a regional climate model is performed in order to assess the model's ability to capture the climatic characteristics of cyclonic tracks in the Mediterranean in the present climate. The ultimate scope of the study will be to perform a future climate projection related to cyclonic tracks in order to better understand and assess climate change in the Mediterranean. The climatology of the cyclonic tracks includes inter-monthly variations, classification of tracks according to their origin domain, dynamic and kinematic characteristics, as well as trend analysis. For this purpose, the ENEA model is employed based on PROTHEUS system composed of the RegCM atmospheric regional model and the MITgcm ocean model, coupled through the OASIS3 flux coupler. These model data became available through the EU Project CIRCE which aims to perform, for the first time, climate change projections with a realistic representation of the Mediterranean Sea. Two experiments are employed; a) the ERA402 with lateral Boundary conditions from ERA40 for the 43-year period 1958-2000, and b) the EH5OM_20C3M where the lateral boundary conditions for the atmosphere (1951-2000) are taken from the ECHAM5-MPIOM 20c3m global simulation (run3) included in the IPCC-AR4. The identification and tracking of cyclones is performed with the aid of the Melbourne University algorithm (MS algorithm), according to the Lagrangian perspective. MS algorithm characterizes a cyclone only if a vorticity maximum could be connected with a local pressure minimum. This approach is considered to be crucial, since open lows are also incorporated into the storm life-cycle, preventing possible inappropriate time series breaks, if a temporary weakening to an open-low state occurs. The model experiments verify that considerable inter-monthly variations of track density occur in the Mediterranean region, consistent with previous studies. The classification of the tracks according to their origin domain show that the vast majority originate within the examined area itself. The study of the kinematic and dynamic parameters of tracks according to their origin demonstrate that deeper cyclones follow the SW track. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS: M. Hatzaki would like to thank the Greek State Scholarships Foundation for financial support through the program of postdoctoral research. The support of EU-FP6 project CIRCE Integrated Project-Climate Change and Impact Research: the Mediterranean Environment (http://www.circeproject.eu) for climate model data provision is also greatly acknowledged.

Dynamics and transport in the stratosphere : Simulations with a general circulation mode

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Aalst, Maarten Krispijn

2005-01-01

The middle atmosphere is strongly affected by two of the world's most important environmental problems: global climate change and stratospheric ozone depletion, caused by anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases and chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), respectively. General circulation models with coupled chemistry are a key tool to advance our understanding of the complex interplay between dynamics, chemistry and radiation in the middle atmosphere. A key problem of such models is that they generate their own meteorology, and thus cannot be used for comparisons with instantaneous measurements. This thesis presents the first application of a simple data assimilation method, Newtonian relaxation, to reproduce realistic synoptical conditions in a state-of-the-art middle atmosphere general circulation model, MA-ECHAM. By nudging the model's meteorology slightly towards analyzed observations from a weather forecasting system (ECMWF), we have simulated specific atmospheric processes during particular meteorological episodes, such as the 1999/2000 Arctic winter. The nudging technique is intended to interfere as little as possible with the model's own dynamics. In fact, we found that we could even limit the nudging to the troposphere, leaving the middle atmosphere entirely free. In that setup, the model realistically reproduced many aspects of the instantaneous meteorology of the middle atmosphere, such as the unusually early major warming and breakup of the 2002 Antarctic vortex. However, we found that this required careful interpolation of the nudging data, and a correct choice of nudging parameters. We obtained the best results when we first projected the nudging data onto the model's normal modes so that we could filter out the (spurious) fast components. In a four-year simulation, for which we also introduced an additional nudging of the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation, we found that the model reproduced much of the interannual variability throughout the stratosphere, including the Antarctic temperature minima crucial for polar ozone chemistry, but failed to capture the precise timing and evolution of Arctic stratospheric warmings. We also identified an important model deficiency regarding tracer transport in the lower polar stratosphere. The success of the runs with tropospheric nudging in simulating the right stratospheric conditions, including the model capability to forecast major stratospheric warming events, bodes well for the model's representation of the dynamic coupling between the troposphere and the stratosphere, an important element of realistic simulation of the future climate of the middle atmosphere (which will partly depend on a changing wave forcing from the troposphere). However, for some aspects of stratospheric dynamics, such as the quasi-biennial oscillation, a higher vertical resolution is required, which might also help to reduce some of the transport problems identified in the lower polar vortex. The nudging technique applied and developed in this thesis offers excellent prospects for applications in coupled-chemistry simulations of the middle atmosphere, including for the interpretation of instantaneous measurements. In particular, it can be used to test and improve the new MA-ECHAM5/MESSy/MECCA coupled chemistry climate model system, in preparation for more reliable simulations of past and future climates.

Exploring Western and Eastern Pacific contributions to the 21st century Walker circulation intensification and teleconnected precipitation declines (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Funk, C. C.; Hoerling, M. P.; Hoell, A.; Verdin, J. P.; Robertson, F. R.; Alured, D.; Liebmann, B.

2013-12-01

As the earth's population, industry, and agricultural systems continue to expand and increase demand for limited hydrologic resources, developing better tools for monitoring, analyzing and perhaps even predicting decadal variations in precipitation will enable the climate community to better inform important policy and management decisions. To this end, in support of the development and humanitarian relief efforts of the US Agency for International Development, USGS, NOAA, UC Santa Barbara, and NASA scientists have been exploring global precipitation trends using observations and new ensembles of atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) simulations from the ECHAM5, GFSv2, CAM4 and GMAO models. This talk summarizes this work, and discusses how combined analyses of AGCM simulations and observations might lead to credible decadal projections, for some regions and seasons, based on the strength of the Indo-Pacific warming signal. Focusing on the late boreal spring, a critical period for food insecure Africa, we begin by linearly decomposing 1900-2012 sea surface temperatures (SST) into components loading strongly in the Indo-Western Pacific and Eastern Pacific. Eastern Pacific (EP) SST variations are based on regressions with three time series: the first and second principal components of equatorial Pacific SST and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. These influences are removed from Indo-Pacific SSTs, and the Indo-Western Pacific (IWP) SST variations are defined by the 1st principal component of the residuals, which we refer to as the Indo-West Pacific Warming Signal (IWPWS). The pattern of IWPWS SST changes resembles recent assessments of centennial warming, and identifies rapid warming in the equatorial western Pacific and north and south Pacific convergence zones. The circulation impacts of IWP and EP SST forcing are explored in two ways. First, assuming linear SST forcing relationships, IWP and EP decompositions of ECHAM5, GFS, CAM4 and GMAO AGCM simulations are presented. These results suggest that a substantial component of the recent Walker circulation intensification has been related to the IWPWS. The IWPWS warming extends from just north of Papua New Guinea to just west of Hawaii, and appears associated with SLP, wind and rainfall responses consistent with enhanced Indo-Pacific convection. These decomposition results are compared with a set of numerical simulation experiments based on the ECHAM5 and GFS models forced with characteristic IWP and EP SST for 1983-1996 and 1999-2012. The talk concludes with a tentative discussion of the decadal predictability associated with the IWPWS. Using both observed and model-simulated precipitation, we briefly explore potential IWPWS drought teleconnection regions in the Americas, Asia, Middle East, and Eastern Africa. Figure 1. Western Pacific and Eastern Pacific SST changes between 1999-2012 and 1983-1996. Figure 2. Western Pacific and Eastern Pacific GPCP precipitation changes between 1999-2012 and 1983-1996.

Shaping climate change in the North Atlantic sector: The role of the atmospheric response to local SST changes vs. large-scale changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hand, Ralf; Keenlyside, Noel; Omrani, Nour-Eddine; Greatbatch, Richard; Bader, Jürgen

2017-04-01

Climate change simulations robustly show a warming hole in the sub-polar North Atlantic that results from slowing of the AMOC countering the global warming signal. Here we investigate how the distinct SST spatial structures, which include a sharpening of the Gulf Stream SST gradients, influence climate change in the NA sector in winter. For this we analyse the RCP8.5 scenario simulation of the MPI Earth System Model. Additional sensitivity experiments with the atmospheric model component, ECHAM5, are performed to deconstruct the effect of the local spatial structure of the SST change from those arising from large-scale warming of the ocean, remote SST pattern changes and changed radiative forcings. The MPI model simulation shows a signifcant decrease in precipitation to the south of the GS extension region in the future, despite a strong increase in underlying SST. While directly to the north there is a significant increase in precipitation. These distinct features in the precipitation response over the North Atlantic result from the local SST. Over the Gulf Stream, the differential structure of the precipitation changes reflects the changes of the local SST gradients there. Over the subpolar gyre the increase in precipitation is partly suppressed. In this region the Subpolar Gyre the weakened AMOC causes a SST warming, that is much weaker than the warming other regions of the ocean show at the same latitude. The large-scale response, which includes the overall increase in precipitation over the NA is due to the overall warming, remote SSTs and/or directly connected to the radiative forcing.

Heinrich events modeled in transient glacial simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ziemen, Florian; Kapsch, Marie; Mikolajewicz, Uwe

2017-04-01

Heinrich events are among the most prominent events of climate variability recorded in proxies across the northern hemisphere. They are the archetype of ice sheet — climate interactions on millennial time scales. Nevertheless, the exact mechanisms that cause Heinrich events are still under debate, and their climatic consequences are far from being fully understood. We address open questions by studying Heinrich events in a coupled ice sheet model (ISM) atmosphere-ocean-vegetation general circulation model (AOVGCM) framework, where this variability occurs as part of the model generated internal variability. The framework consists of a northern hemisphere setup of the modified Parallel Ice Sheet Model (mPISM) coupled to the global AOVGCM ECHAM5/MPIOM/LPJ. The simulations were performed fully coupled and with transient orbital and greenhouse gas forcing. They span from several millennia before the last glacial maximum into the deglaciation. To make these long simulations feasible, the atmosphere is accelerated by a factor of 10 relative to the other model components using a periodical-synchronous coupling technique. To disentangle effects of the Heinrich events and the deglaciation, we focus on the events occurring before the deglaciation. The modeled Heinrich events show a peak ice discharge of about 0.05 Sv and raise the sea level by 2.3 m on average. The resulting surface water freshening reduces the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and ocean heat release. The reduction in ocean heat release causes a sub-surface warming and decreases the air temperature and precipitation regionally and downstream into Eurasia. The surface elevation decrease of the ice sheet enhances moisture transport onto the ice sheet and thus increases precipitation over the Hudson Bay area, thereby accelerating the recovery after an event.

Comparative Assessment of a New Hydrological Modelling Approach for Prediction of Runoff in Gauged and Ungauged Basins, and Climate Change Impacts Assessment: A Case Study from Benin.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

GABA, C. O. U.; Alamou, E.; Afouda, A.; Diekkrüger, B.

2016-12-01

Assessing water resources is still an important challenge especially in the context of climatic changes. Although numerous hydrological models exist, new approaches are still under investigation. In this context, we investigate a new modelling approach based on the Physics Principle of Least Action which was first applied to the Bétérou catchment in Benin and gave very good results. The study presents new hypotheses to go further in the model development with a view of widening its application. The improved version of the model MODHYPMA was applied to sixteen (16) subcatchments in Bénin, West Africa. Its performance was compared to two well-known lumped conceptual models, the GR4J and HBV models. The model was successfully calibrated and validated and showed a good performance in most catchments. The analysis revealed that the three models have similar performance and timing errors. But in contrary to other models, MODHYMA is subject to a less loss of performance from calibration to validation. In order to evaluate the usefulness of our model for the prediction of runoff in ungauged basins, model parameters were estimated from the physical catchments characteristics. We relied on statistical methods applied on calibrated model parameters to deduce relationships between parameters and physical catchments characteristics. These relationships were further tested and validated on gauged basins that were considered ungauged. This regionalization was also performed for GR4J model.We obtained NSE values greater than 0.7 for MODHYPMA while the NSE values for GR4J were inferior to 0.5. In the presented study, the effects of climate change on water resources in the Ouémé catchment at the outlet of Savè (about 23 500 km2) are quantified. The output of a regional climate model was used as input to the hydrological models.Computed within the GLOWA-IMPETUS project, the future climate projections (describing a rainfall reduction of up to 15%) are derived from the regional climate model REMO driven by the global ECHAM model.The results reveal a significant decrease in future water resources (of -66% to -53% for MODHYPMA and of -59% to -46% for GR4J) for the IPCC climate scenarios A1B and B1.

A more accurate scheme for calculating Earth's skin temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsuang, Ben-Jei; Tu, Chia-Ying; Tsai, Jeng-Lin; Dracup, John A.; Arpe, Klaus; Meyers, Tilden

2009-02-01

The theoretical framework of the vertical discretization of a ground column for calculating Earth’s skin temperature is presented. The suggested discretization is derived from the evenly heat-content discretization with the optimal effective thickness for layer-temperature simulation. For the same level number, the suggested discretization is more accurate in skin temperature as well as surface ground heat flux simulations than those used in some state-of-the-art models. A proposed scheme (“op(3,2,0)”) can reduce the normalized root-mean-square error (or RMSE/STD ratio) of the calculated surface ground heat flux of a cropland site significantly to 2% (or 0.9 W m-2), from 11% (or 5 W m-2) by a 5-layer scheme used in ECMWF, from 19% (or 8 W m-2) by a 5-layer scheme used in ECHAM, and from 74% (or 32 W m-2) by a single-layer scheme used in the UCLA GCM. Better accuracy can be achieved by including more layers to the vertical discretization. Similar improvements are expected for other locations with different land types since the numerical error is inherited into the models for all the land types. The proposed scheme can be easily implemented into state-of-the-art climate models for the temperature simulation of snow, ice and soil.

Optimal selection of MULTI-model downscaled ensembles for interannual and seasonal climate prediction in the eastern seaboard of Thailand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bejranonda, W.; Koch, M.

2010-12-01

Because of the imminent threat of the water resources of the eastern seaboard of Thailand, a climate impact study has been carried out there. To that avail, a hydrological watershed model is being used to simulate the future water availability in the wake of possible climate change in the region. The hydrological model is forced by predictions from global climate models (GCMs) that are to be downscaled in an appropriate manner. The challenge at that stage of the climate impact analysis lies then the in the choice of the best GCM and the (statistical) downscaling method. In this study the selection of coarse grid resolution output of the GCMs, transferring information to the fine grid of local climate-hydrology is achieved by cross-correlation and multiple linear regression using meteorological data in the eastern seaboard of Thailand observed between 1970-1999. The grids of 20 atmosphere/ocean global climate models (AOGCM), covering latitude 12.5-15.0 N and longitude 100.0-102.5 E were examined using the Climate-Change Scenario Generator (SCENGEN). With that tool the model efficiency of the prediction of daily precipitation and mean temperature was calculated by comparing the 1980-1999 ECMWF reanalysis predictions with the observed data during that time period. The root means square errors of the predictions were considered and ranked to select the top 5 models, namely, BCCR-BCM2.0, GISS-ER, ECHO-G, ECHAM5/MPI-OM and PCM. The daily time-series of 338 predictors in 9 runs of the 5 selected models were gathered from the CMIP3 multi-model database. Monthly time-serial cross-correlations between the climate predictors and the meteorological measurements from 25 rainfall, 4 minimum and maximum temperature, 4 humidity and 2 solar radiation stations in the study area were then computed and ranked. Using the ranked predictors, a multiple-linear regression model (downscaling transfer model) to forecast the local climate was set up. To improve the prediction power of this GCM downscaling approach, the regression equations were considered as a dynamic regression model that can alter the predictor by seasonal variation. The possible seasonal effect was examined for the 1974-1999 period which was equally divided into a calibration and verification sub-period. The calibrated model using the whole observed time-series was compared with the models separated into 2 seasons; dry and wet, 3 seasons; winter, summer and rainy, and 4 seasons; dry, pre-monsoon, first monsoon and second monsoon. The verification power of the various model variants was measured considering Akaike's information criterion (AIC) and the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of the corresponding model fit. The results show that the 4-seasons-variation prediction works best. The highest efficiency for the prediction of rainfall is achieved for the dry season, Oct-Mar, whereas the smallest efficiency is obtained in the monsoon seasons. The overall number of predictor giving top efficiency lies between 3 and 20 in the regression models. In the next, still ongoing stage of the climate impact study the predictions from this new, seasonally optimized downscaling transfer model are being used in the simulations of the future hydrological water budget in that region of Thailand.

Verification of GCM-generated regional seasonal precipitation for current climate and of statistical downscaling estimates under changing climate conditions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Busuioc, A.; Storch, H. von; Schnur, R.

Empirical downscaling procedures relate large-scale atmospheric features with local features such as station rainfall in order to facilitate local scenarios of climate change. The purpose of the present paper is twofold: first, a downscaling technique is used as a diagnostic tool to verify the performance of climate models on the regional scale; second, a technique is proposed for verifying the validity of empirical downscaling procedures in climate change applications. The case considered is regional seasonal precipitation in Romania. The downscaling model is a regression based on canonical correlation analysis between observed station precipitation and European-scale sea level pressure (SLP). Themore » climate models considered here are the T21 and T42 versions of the Hamburg ECHAM3 atmospheric GCM run in time-slice mode. The climate change scenario refers to the expected time of doubled carbon dioxide concentrations around the year 2050. Generally, applications of statistical downscaling to climate change scenarios have been based on the assumption that the empirical link between the large-scale and regional parameters remains valid under a changed climate. In this study, a rationale is proposed for this assumption by showing the consistency of the 2 x CO{sub 2} GCM scenarios in winter, derived directly from the gridpoint data, with the regional scenarios obtained through empirical downscaling. Since the skill of the GCMs in regional terms is already established, it is concluded that the downscaling technique is adequate for describing climatically changing regional and local conditions, at least for precipitation in Romania during winter.« less

Prediction of future climate change for the Blue Nile, using a nested Regional Climate Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soliman, E.; Jeuland, M.

2009-04-01

Although the Nile River Basin is rich in natural resources, it faces many challenges. Rainfall is highly variable across the region, on both seasonal and inter-annual scales. This variability makes the region vulnerable to droughts and floods. Many development projects involving Nile waters are currently underway, or being studied. These projects will lead to land-use patterns changes and water distribution and availability. It is thus important to assess the effects of a) these projects and b) evolving water resource management and policies, on regional hydrological processes. This paper seeks to establish a basis for evaluation of such impacts within the Blue Nile River sub-basin, using the RegCM3 Regional Climate Model to simulate interactions between the land surface and climatic processes. We first present results from application of this RCM model nested with downscaled outputs obtained from the ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 transient simulations for the 20th Century. We then investigate changes associated with mid-21st century emissions forcing of the SRES A1B scenario. The results obtained from the climate model are then fed as inputs to the Nile Forecast System (NFS), a hydrologic distributed rainfall runoff model of the Nile Basin, The interaction between climatic and hydrological processes on the land surface has been fully coupled. Rainfall patterns and evaporation rates have been generated using RegCM3, and the resulting runoff and Blue Nile streamflow patterns have been simulated using the NFS. This paper compares the results obtained from the RegCM3 climate model with observational datasets for precipitation and temperature from the Climate Research Unit (UK) and the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center GPCP (USA) for 1985-2000. The validity of the streamflow predictions from the NFS is assessed using historical gauge records. Finally, we present results from modeling of the A1B emissions scenario of the IPCC for the years 2034-2055. Our results indicate that future changes in rainfall may vary over different areas of the Upper Blue Nile catchment in Ethiopia. Our results suggest that there may be good reasons for developing climate models with finer spatial resolution than the more commonly used GCMs.

Indirect downscaling of global circulation model data based on atmospheric circulation and temperature for projections of future precipitation in hourly resolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beck, F.; Bárdossy, A.

2013-07-01

Many hydraulic applications like the design of urban sewage systems require projections of future precipitation in high temporal resolution. We developed a method to predict the regional distribution of hourly precipitation sums based on daily mean sea level pressure and temperature data from a Global Circulation Model. It is an indirect downscaling method avoiding uncertain precipitation data from the model. It is based on a fuzzy-logic classification of atmospheric circulation patterns (CPs) that is further subdivided by means of the average daily temperature. The observed empirical distributions at 30 rain gauges to each CP-temperature class are assumed as constant and used for projections of the hourly precipitation sums in the future. The method was applied to the CP-temperature sequence derived from the 20th century run and the scenario A1B run of ECHAM5. According to ECHAM5, the summers in southwest Germany will become progressively drier. Nevertheless, the frequency of the highest hourly precipitation sums will increase. According to the predictions, estival water stress and the risk of extreme hourly precipitation will both increase simultaneously during the next decades.

How will climate change affect watershed mercury export in a representative Coastal Plain watershed?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Golden, H. E.; Knightes, C. D.; Conrads, P. A.; Feaster, T.; Davis, G. M.; Benedict, S. T.; Bradley, P. M.

2012-12-01

Future climate change is expected to drive variations in watershed hydrological processes and water quality across a wide range of physiographic provinces, ecosystems, and spatial scales. How such shifts in climatic conditions will impact watershed mercury (Hg) dynamics and hydrologically-driven Hg transport is a significant concern. We simulate the responses of watershed hydrological and total Hg (HgT) fluxes and concentrations to a unified set of past and future climate change projections in a Coastal Plain basin using multiple watershed models. We use two statistically downscaled global precipitation and temperature models, ECHO, a hybrid of the ECHAM4 and HOPE-G models, and the Community Climate System Model (CCSM3) across two thirty-year simulations (1980 to 2010 and 2040 to 2070). We apply three watershed models to quantify and bracket potential changes in hydrologic and HgT fluxes, including the Visualizing Ecosystems for Land Management Assessment Model for Hg (VELMA-Hg), the Grid Based Mercury Model (GBMM), and TOPLOAD, a water quality constituent model linked to TOPMODEL hydrological simulations. We estimate a decrease in average annual HgT fluxes in response to climate change using the ECHO projections and an increase with the CCSM3 projections in the study watershed. Average monthly HgT fluxes increase using both climate change projections between in the late spring (March through May), when HgT concentrations and flow are high. Results suggest that hydrological transport associated with changes in precipitation and temperature is the primary mechanism driving HgT flux response to climate change. Our multiple model/multiple projection approach allows us to bracket the relative response of HgT fluxes to climate change, thereby illustrating the uncertainty associated with the projections. In addition, our approach allows us to examine potential variations in climate change-driven water and HgT export based on different conceptualizations of watershed HgT dynamics and the representative mathematical structures underpinning existing watershed Hg models.

Biomes computed from simulated climatologies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Claussen, M.; Esch, M.

1994-01-01

The biome model of Prentice et al. is used to predict global patterns of potential natural plant formations, or biomes, from climatologies simulated by ECHAM, a model used for climate simulations at the Max-Planck-Institut fuer Meteorologie. This study undertaken in order to show the advantage of this biome model in diagnosing the performance of a climate model and assessing effects of past and future climate changes predicted by a climate model. Good overall agreement is found between global patterns of biomes computed from observed and simulated data of present climate. But there are also major discrepancies indicated by a differencemore » in biomes in Australia, in the Kalahari Desert, and in the Middle West of North America. These discrepancies can be traced back to in simulated rainfall as well as summer or winter temperatures. Global patterns of biomes computed from an ice age simulation reveal that North America, Europe, and Siberia should have been covered largely by tundra and taiga, whereas only small differences are for the tropical rain forests. A potential northeast shift of biomes is expected from a simulation with enhanced CO{sub 2} concentration according to the IPCC Scenario A. Little change is seen in the tropical rain forest and the Sahara. Since the biome model used is not capable of predicting chances in vegetation patterns due to a rapid climate change, the latter simulation to be taken as a prediction of chances in conditions favourable for the existence of certain biomes, not as a reduction of a future distribution of biomes. 15 refs., 8 figs., 2 tabs.« less

Modelling carbon cycle in boreal wetlands with the Earth System Model ECHAM6/MPIOM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Getzieh, Robert J.; Brovkin, Victor; Kleinen, Thomas; Raivonen, Maarit; Sevanto, Sanna

2010-05-01

Wetlands of the northern high latitudes provide excellent conditions for peat accumulation and methanogenesis. High moisture and low O2 content in the soils lead to effective preservation of soil organic matter and methane emissions. Boreal Wetlands contain about 450 PgC and currently constitute a significant natural source of methane (CH4) even though they cover only 3% of the global land surface. While storing carbon and removing CO2 from the atmosphere, boreal wetlands have contributed to global cooling on millennial timescales. Undisturbed boreal wetlands are likely to continue functioning as a net carbon sink. On the other hand these carbon pools might be destabilised in future since they are sensitive to climate change. Given that processes of peat accumulation and decay are closely dependent on hydrology and temperature, this balance may be altered significantly in the future. As a result, northern wetlands could have a large impact on carbon cycle-climate feedback mechanisms and therefore play an important role in global carbon cycle dynamics. However global biogeochemistry models used for simulations of CO2 dynamics in past and future climates usually neglect carbon cycle in wetlands. We investigate the potential for positive or negative feedbacks to the climate system through fluxes of greenhouse gases (CO2 and CH4) with the general circulation model ECHAM6/MPIOM. A generic model of peat accumulation and decay has been developed and implemented into the land surface module JSBACH. We consider anaerobic biogeochemical processes which lead to formation of thick organic soils. Furthermore we consider specific wetland plant functional types (PFTs) in our model such as vascular plants (sedges) which impact methane transport and oxidation processes and non vascular plants (sphagnum mosses) which are promoting peat growth. As prototypes we use the modelling approaches by Frolking et al. (2001) as well as Walter & Heimann (2001) for the peat dynamics, and the wetland model by Wania (2008) for vegetation cover and methane emissions. An initial distribution of wetlands follows the GLWD-3 map by Lehner and Döll (2004). A dynamical wetlands hydrology scheme (T. Stacke) and a methane transport and emission model (M. Raivonen) are at the moment also under development at the MPI for Meteorology respectively in close cooperation with the University of Helsinki. First results of our modelling approach will be presented. REFERENCES S. Frolking et al., Ecosystems 4, 479-498 (2001). B. Lehner et al., Journal of Hydrology 296, 1-22 (2004). B. P. Walter et al., J. Geophys. Res. 106, D24, 34189-34206 and 34207-34219 (2001). R. Wania et al., Global Biogeochem. Cycles 23, GB3014 and GB3015 (2009).

How Will Aerosol-Cloud Interactions Change in an Ice-Free Arctic Summer?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gilgen, Anina; Katty Huang, Wan Ting; Ickes, Luisa; Lohmann, Ulrike

2016-04-01

Future temperatures in the Arctic are expected to increase more than the global mean temperature, which will lead to a pronounced retreat in Arctic sea ice. Before mid-century, most sea ice will likely have vanished in late Arctic summers. This will allow ships to cruise in the Arctic Ocean, e.g. to shorten their transport passage or to extract oil. Since both ships and open water emit aerosol particles and precursors, Arctic clouds and radiation may be affected via aerosol-cloud and cloud-radiation interactions. The change in radiation feeds back on temperature and sea ice retreat. In addition to aerosol particles, also the temperature and the open ocean as a humidity source should have a strong effect on clouds. The main goal of this study is to assess the impact of sea ice retreat on the Arctic climate with focus on aerosol emissions and cloud properties. To this purpose, we conducted ensemble runs with the global climate model ECHAM6-HAM2 under present-day and future (2050) conditions. ECHAM6-HAM2 was coupled with a mixed layer ocean model, which includes a sea ice model. To estimate Arctic aerosol emissions from ships, we used an elaborated ship emission inventory (Peters et al. 2011); changes in aerosol emissions from the ocean are calculated online. Preliminary results show that the sea salt aerosol and the dimethyl sulfide burdens over the Arctic Ocean significantly increase. While the ice water path decreases, the total water path increases. Due to the decrease in surface albedo, the cooling effect of the Arctic clouds becomes more important in 2050. Enhanced Arctic shipping has only a very small impact. The increase in the aersol burden due to shipping is less pronounced than the increase due to natural emissions even if the ship emissions are increased by a factor of ten. Hence, there is hardly an effect on clouds and radiation caused by shipping. References Peters et al. (2011), Atmos. Chem. Phys., 11, 5305-5320

The impact of aerosol emissions on the 1.5 °C pathways

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hienola, Anca; Partanen, Antti-Ilari; Pietikäinen, Joni-Pekka; O’Donnell, Declan; Korhonen, Hannele; Damon Matthews, H.; Laaksonen, Ari

2018-04-01

To assess the impact of anthropogenic aerosol emission reduction on limiting global temperature increase to 1.5 °C or 2 °C above pre-industrial levels, two climate modeling approaches have been used (MAGICC6, and a combination of ECHAM-HAMMOZ and the UVic ESCM), with two aerosol control pathways under two greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction scenarios. We found that aerosol emission reductions associated with CO2 co-emissions had a significant warming effect during the first half of the century and that the near-term warming is dependent on the pace of aerosol emission reduction. The modeling results show that these aerosol emission reductions account for about 0.5 °C warming relative to 2015, on top of the 1 °C above pre-industrial levels that were already reached in 2015. We found also that the decreases in aerosol emissions lead to different decreases in the magnitude of the aerosol radiative forcing in the two models. By 2100, the aerosol forcing is projected by ECHAM–UVic to diminish in magnitude by 0.96 W m‑2 and by MAGICC6 by 0.76 W m‑2 relative to 2000. Despite this discrepancy, the climate responses in terms of temperature are similar. Aggressive aerosol control due to air quality legislation affects the peak temperature, which is 0.2 °C–0.3 °C above the 1.5 °C limit even within the most ambitious CO2/GHG reduction scenario. At the end of the century, the temperature differences between aerosol reduction scenarios in the context of ambitious CO2 mitigation are negligible.

Performance evaluation of a non-hydrostatic regional climate model over the Mediterranean/Black Sea area and climate projections for the XXI century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mercogliano, Paola; Bucchignani, Edoardo; Montesarchio, Myriam; Zollo, Alessandra Lucia

2013-04-01

In the framework of the Work Package 4 (Developing integrated tools for environmental assessment) of PERSEUS Project, high resolution climate simulations have been performed, with the aim of furthering knowledge in the field of climate variability at regional scale, its causes and impacts. CMCC is a no profit centre whose aims are the promotion, research coordination and scientific activities in the field of climate changes. In this work, we show results of numerical simulation performed over a very wide area (13W-46E; 29-56N) at spatial resolution of 14 km, which includes the Mediterranean and Black Seas, using the regional climate model COSMO-CLM. It is a non-hydrostatic model for the simulation of atmospheric processes, developed by the DWD-Germany for weather forecast services; successively, the model has been updated by the CLM-Community, in order to develop climatic applications. It is the only documented numerical model system in Europe designed for spatial resolutions down to 1 km with a range of applicability encompassing operational numerical weather prediction, regional climate modelling the dispersion of trace gases and aerosol and idealised studies and applicable in all regions of the world for a wide range of available climate simulations from global climate and NWP models. Different reasons justify the development of a regional model: the first is the increasing number of works in literature asserting that regional models have also the features to provide more detailed description of the climate extremes, that are often more important then their mean values for natural and human systems. The second one is that high resolution modelling shows adequate features to provide information for impact assessment studies. At CMCC, regional climate modelling is a part of an integrated simulation system and it has been used in different European and African projects to provide qualitative and quantitative evaluation of the hydrogeological and public health risks. A simulation covering the period 1971-2000 and driven by ERA40 reanalysis has been performed, in order to assess the capability of the model to reproduce the present climate, with "perfect boundary conditions". A comparison, in terms of 2-metre temperature and precipitation, with EOBS dataset will be shown and discussed, in order to analyze the capabilities in simulating the main features of the observed climate over a wide area, at high spatial resolution. Then, a comparison between the results of COSMO-CLM driven by the global model CMCC-MED (whose atmospheric component is ECHAM5) and by ERA40 will be provided for a characterization of the errors induced by the global model. Finally, climate projections on the examined area for the XXI century, considering the RCP4.5 emission scenario for the future, will be provided. In this work a special emphasis will be issued to the analysis of the capability to reproduce not only the average climate trend but also extremes of the present and future climate, in terms of temperature, precipitation and wind.

Assessment of temperature and precipitation over Mediterranean Area and Black Sea with non hydrostatic high resolution regional climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mercogliano, P.; Montesarchio, M.; Zollo, A.; Bucchignani, E.

2012-12-01

In the framework of the Italian GEMINA Project (program of expansion and development of the Euro-Mediterranean Center for Climate Change (CMCC), high resolution climate simulations have been performed, with the aim of furthering knowledge in the field of climate variability at regional scale, its causes and impacts. CMCC is a no profit centre whose aims are the promotion, research coordination and scientific activities in the field of climate changes. In this work, we show results of numerical simulation performed over a very wide area (13W-46E; 29-56N) at spatial resolution of 14 km, which includes all the Mediterranean Sea, using the regional climate model COSMO-CLM. It is a non-hydrostatic model for the simulation of atmospheric processes, developed by the DWD-Germany for weather forecast services; successively, the model has been updated by the CLM-Community, in order to develop climatic applications. It is the only documented numerical model system in Europe designed for spatial resolutions down to 1 km with a range of applicability encompassing operational numerical weather prediction, regional climate modelling the dispersion of trace gases and aerosol and idealised studies and applicable in all regions of the world for a wide range of available climate simulations from global climate and NWP models. Different reasons justify the development of a regional model: the first is the increasing number of works in literature asserting that regional models have also the features to provide more detailed description of the climate extremes, that are often more important then their mean values for natural and human systems. The second one is that high resolution modelling shows adequate features to provide information for impact assessment studies. At CMCC, regional climate modelling is a part of an integrated simulation system and it has been used in different European and African projects to provide qualitative and quantitative evaluation of the hydrogeological and public health risks. A simulation covering the period 1971-2000 and driven by ERA40 reanalysis has been performed, in order to assess the capability of the model to reproduce the present climate, with "perfect boundary conditions". A comparison, in terms of 2-metre temperature and precipitation, with EOBS dataset will be shown and discussed, in order to analyze the capabilities in simulating the main features of the observed climate over a wide area, at high spatial resolution. Then, a comparison between the results of COSMO-CLM driven by the global model CMCC-MED (whose atmospheric component is ECHAM5) and by ERA40 will be provided for a characterization of the errors induced by the global model. Finally, climate projections on the examined area for the XXI century, considering the RCP4.5 emission scenario for the future, will be provided. In this work a special emphasis will be issued to the analysis of the capability to reproduce not only the average climate patterns but also extremes of the present and future climate, in terms of temperature, precipitation and wind.

Variability of temperature and chlorophyll of the Iberian Peninsula near costal ecosystem during an upwelling event for the present climate and a future climate scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lopes, José Fortes; Ferreira, Juan A.; Cardoso, Ana Cristina; Rocha, Alfredo C.

2014-01-01

Understanding the importance and the implication of the climate changes on coastal areas may be one of the major issues for this and next centuries. Climate changes may, indeed, impact the nearshore marine ecosystem, as coastal areas are very sensitive to the strength and the variability of the meteorological forcings. The main purpose of this work is to study temperature and phytoplankton distributions along the Portuguese near coastal zone during upwelling events in the present climate conditions and in a future climate scenario. The SRES-A2 IPCC scenario has been considered. We have used a three-dimensional model for coastal and shelf seas, including the following sub-models: hydrodynamical/physical, biological, sediment and contaminant. The forcings are provided by the interactions at the air-sea, considering the wind intensity and direction with the help of the WRF model (Weather Research and Forecast Model) and the coupled atmosphere-ocean model ECHAM5/MPI-OM. Results show that, for the future climate scenario, there is a reinforcement of the southward wind. The responses of the coastal ecosystem corresponds to the reinforcement of both, the southward (up to 10 cm/s) and the westward (up to 6 cm/s) induced upwelling currents. This, in turn generates an enlargement of the near coast upwelled cold layer, extending up to 60 km, as well as the rise of the warm layer temperature (up to 2.0 °C) and the spreading of the phytoplankton offshore. Significant changes in both the Chl-a vertical and the horizontal distribution patterns have been observed, as the nutrient supply to the upper layers depends on the strength of the upwelling, the bottom topography and orography of the coastal. These results confirm that changes in the strength and eventually the frequency of the upwelling favourable wind impact the phytoplankton distribution, which can have significant effect in the distribution and population of the upper level of the trophic chain of the coastal ecosystem.

Pinatubo eruption winter climate effects: Model versus observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Graf, HANS-F.; Kirchner, Ingo; Schult, Ingrid; Robock, Alan

1992-01-01

Large volcanic eruptions, in addition to the well-known effect of producing global cooling for a year or two, have been observed to produce shorter-term responses in the climate system involving non-linear dynamical processes. In this paper, we use the ECHAM2 general circulation model forced with stratospheric aerosols to test some of these ideas. Run in a perpetual-January mode, with tropical stratospheric heating from the volcanic aerosols typical of the 1982 El Chichon eruption or the 1991 Pinatubo eruption, we find a dynamical response with an increased polar night jet in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and stronger zonal winds which extended down into the troposphere. The Azores High shifts northward with increased tropospheric westerlies at 60N and increased easterlies at 30N. Surface temperatures are higher both in northern Eurasia and North America, in agreement with observations for the NH winters or 1982-83 and 1991-92 as well as the winters following the other 10 largest volcanic eruptions since 1883.

What have we learned from the German consortium project STORM aiming at high-resolution climate simulations?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

von Storch, Jin-Song

2014-05-01

The German consortium STORM was built to explore high-resolution climate simulations using the high-performance computer stored at the German Climate Computer Center (DKRZ). One of the primary goals is to quantify the effect of unresolved (and parametrized) processes on climate sensitivity. We use ECHAM6/MPIOM, the coupled atmosphere-ocean model developed at the Max-Planck Institute for Meteorology. The resolution is T255L95 for the atmosphere and 1/10 degree and 80 vertical levels for the ocean. We discuss results of stand-alone runs, i.e. the ocean-only simulation driven by the NCEP/NCAR renalaysis and the atmosphere-only AMIP-type of simulation. Increasing resolution leads to a redistribution of biases, even though some improvements, both in the atmosphere and in the ocean, can clearly be attributed to the increase in resolution. We represent also new insights on ocean meso-scale eddies, in particular their effects on the ocean's energetics. Finally, we discuss the status and problems of the coupled high-resolution runs.

Consequences of Changes in Vegetation and Snow Cover for Climate Feedbacks in Alaska and Northwest Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Euskirchen, E. S.; Breen, A. L.; Bennett, A.; Genet, H.; Lindgren, M.; Kurkowski, T. A.; McGuire, A. D.; Rupp, S. T.

2016-12-01

A continuing challenge in global change studies is to determine how land surface changes may impact atmospheric heating. Changes in vegetation and snow cover may lead to feedbacks to climate through changes in surface albedo and energy fluxes between the land and atmosphere. In addition to these biogeophysical feedbacks, biogeochemical feedbacks associated with changes in carbon (C) storage in the vegetation and soils may also influence climate. Here, using a transient biogeographic model (ALFRESCO) and an ecosystem model (DOS-TEM), we quantified the biogeophysical feedbacks due to changes in vegetation and snow cover across continuous permafrost to non-permafrost ecosystems in Alaska and northwest Canada. We also computed the changes in carbon storage in this region to provide a general assessment of the direction of the biogeochemical feedback. We considered four ecoregions, or Landscape Conservations Cooperatives (LCCs; including the Arctic, North Pacific, Western Alaska, and Northwest Boreal). We examined the 90-year period from 2010- 2099 using one future emission scenario (A1B), under outputs from two general circulation models (MPI-ECHAM5 and CCCMA-CGCM3.1). We consider a more comprehensive suite of possible feedbacks to climate due to shifts in vegetation than previous studies, including both boreal and tundra fire, an advance of treeline, reduction in forest cover due to drought, and increases in the distribution of shrub tundra. However, changes in snow cover still provided the dominant positive land surface feedback to atmospheric heating. This positive feedback was partially moderated by an increase in area burned in spruce forests and shrub tundra. Overall, increases in C storage in the vegetation and soils across the study region would act as a negative feedback to climate. By exploring these feedbacks, we can reach a more integrated understanding of the vulnerability of this region to changes in climate.

Return periods of losses associated with European windstorm series in a changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karremann, Melanie K.; Pinto, Joaquim G.; Reyers, Mark; Klawa, Matthias

2015-04-01

During the last decades, several windstorm series hit Europe leading to large aggregated losses. Such storm series are examples of serial clustering of extreme cyclones, presenting a considerable risk for the insurance industry. Clustering of events and return periods of storm series affecting Europe are quantified based on potential losses using empirical models. Moreover, possible future changes of clustering and return periods of European storm series with high potential losses are quantified. Historical storm series are identified using 40 winters of NCEP reanalysis data (1973/1974 - 2012/2013). Time series of top events (1, 2 or 5 year return levels) are used to assess return periods of storm series both empirically and theoretically. Return periods of historical storm series are estimated based on the Poisson and the negative binomial distributions. Additionally, 800 winters of ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 general circulation model simulations for present (SRES scenario 20C: years 1960- 2000) and future (SRES scenario A1B: years 2060- 2100) climate conditions are investigated. Clustering is identified for most countries in Europe, and estimated return periods are similar for reanalysis and present day simulations. Future changes of return periods are estimated for fixed return levels and fixed loss index thresholds. For the former, shorter return periods are found for Western Europe, but changes are small and spatially heterogeneous. For the latter, which combines the effects of clustering and event ranking shifts, shorter return periods are found everywhere except for Mediterranean countries. These changes are generally not statistically significant between recent and future climate. However, the return periods for the fixed loss index approach are mostly beyond the range of preindustrial natural climate variability. This is not true for fixed return levels. The quantification of losses associated with storm series permits a more adequate windstorm risk assessment in a changing climate.

Black Carbon Measurement and Modeling in the Arabian Peninsula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zawad, Faisal Al; Khoder, Mamdouh; Almazroui, Mansour; Alghamdi, Mansour; Lihavainen, Heikki; Hyvarinen, Antti; Henriksson, Svante

2017-04-01

Black carbon is an important atmospheric aerosol as an effective factor in public health, changing the global and regional climate, and reducing visibility. Black carbon absorbs light, warms the atmosphere, and modifies cloud droplets and the amount of precipitation. In spite of this significance, knowledge of black carbon over the Arabian Peninsula is hard to find in literature until recently. The total mass of black carbon and wind direction and speeds were measured continuously at Hada Al-Sham, Saudi Arabia for the year 2013. In addition, a state of the art global aerosol - climate model (ECHAM5-HAM) was used to determine black carbon climatology over the Arabian Peninsula. Simulation of the model was carried out for the years eight years (2004 - 2011). The daily mean values of the concentrations of black carbon had a minimum of 15.0 ng/m3 and a maximum of 6372 ng/m3 with a mean of at 1899 ng/m3. The diurnal pattern of black carbon showed higher values overnight, and steady low values during daytimes caused by sea and land breezes. Seasons of black carbon vary over the Arabian Peninsula, and the longest is in the Northern Region where it lasts from July to October. High concentrations of black carbon at Hada Al-Sham was observed with a mean of 1.9 µm/m3, and seasons of black carbon vary widely across the Arabian Peninsula. Assessment of the effects of black carbon over the Arabian Peninsula on the global radiation balance. Initiating a black carbon monitoring network is highly recommended to assess its impacts on health, environment, and climate.

Land-Climate Feedbacks in Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asharaf, Shakeel; Ahrens, Bodo

2016-04-01

In an attempt to identify how land surface states such as soil moisture influence the monsoonal precipitation climate over India, a series of numerical simulations including soil moisture sensitivity experiments was performed. The simulations were conducted with a nonhydrostatic regional climate model (RCM), the Consortium for Small-Scale Modeling (COSMO) in climate mode (CCLM) model, which was driven by the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Interim reanalysis (ERA-Interim) data. Results showed that pre-monsoonal soil moisture has a significant impact on monsoonal precipitation formation and large-scale atmospheric circulations. The analysis revealed that even a small change in the processes that influence precipitation via changes in local evapotranspiration was able to trigger significant variations in regional soil moisture-precipitation feedback. It was observed that these processes varied spatially from humid to arid regions in India, which further motivated an examination of soil-moisture memory variation over these regions and determination of the ISM seasonal forecasting potential. A quantitative analysis indicated that the simulated soil-moisture memory lengths increased with soil depth and were longer in the western region than those in the eastern region of India. Additionally, the subsequent precipitation variance explained by soil moisture increased from east to west. The ISM rainfall was further analyzed in two different greenhouse gas emission scenarios: the Special Report on Emissions Scenario (SRES: B1) and the new Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs: RCP4.5). To that end, the CCLM and its driving global-coupled atmospheric-oceanic model (GCM), ECHAM/MPIOM were used in order to understand the driving processes of the projected inter-annual precipitation variability and associated trends. Results inferred that the projected rainfall changes were the result of two largely compensating processes: increase of remotely induced precipitation and decrease of precipitation efficiency. However, the complementing precipitation components and their simulation uncertainties rendered climate projections of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall as an ongoing, highly ambiguous challenge for both the GCM and the RCM.

Atmospheric and Oceanic Response to Southern Ocean Deep Convection Oscillations on Decadal to Centennial Time Scales in Climate Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martin, T.; Reintges, A.; Park, W.; Latif, M.

2014-12-01

Many current coupled global climate models simulate open ocean deep convection in the Southern Ocean as a recurring event with time scales ranging from a few years to centennial (de Lavergne et al., 2014, Nat. Clim. Ch.). The only observation of such event, however, was the occurrence of the Weddell Polynya in the mid-1970s, an open water area of 350 000 km2 within the Antarctic sea ice in three consecutive winters. Both the wide range of modeled frequency of occurrence and the absence of deep convection in the Weddell Sea highlights the lack of understanding concerning the phenomenon. Nevertheless, simulations indicate that atmospheric and oceanic responses to the cessation of deep convection in the Southern Ocean include a strengthening of the low-level atmospheric circulation over the Southern Ocean (increasing SAM index) and a reduction in the export of Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW), potentially masking the regional effects of global warming (Latif et al., 2013, J. Clim.; Martin et al., 2014, Deep Sea Res. II). It is thus of great importance to enhance our understanding of Southern Ocean deep convection and clarify the associated time scales. In two multi-millennial simulations with the Kiel Climate Model (KCM, ECHAM5 T31 atmosphere & NEMO-LIM2 ~2˚ ocean) we showed that the deep convection is driven by strong oceanic warming at mid-depth periodically overriding the stabilizing effects of precipitation and ice melt (Martin et al., 2013, Clim. Dyn.). Sea ice thickness also affects location and duration of the deep convection. A new control simulation, in which, amongst others, the atmosphere grid resolution is changed to T42 (~2.8˚), yields a faster deep convection flip-flop with a period of 80-100 years and a weaker but still significant global climate response similar to CMIP5 simulations. While model physics seem to affect the time scale and intensity of the phenomenon, the driving mechanism is a rather robust feature. Finally, we compare the atmospheric and oceanic responses among CMIP5 models. Since open ocean convection is the dominant mode of AABW formation in these models, the northward extent and strength of the AABW cell in the Atlantic correlates with the deep convection intensity but varies between models. Likewise, atmospheric response patterns outside the Southern Ocean region are not consistent among models.

Constrained parameterisation of photosynthetic capacity causes significant increase of modelled tropical vegetation surface temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kattge, J.; Knorr, W.; Raddatz, T.; Wirth, C.

2009-04-01

Photosynthetic capacity is one of the most sensitive parameters of terrestrial biosphere models whose representation in global scale simulations has been severely hampered by a lack of systematic analyses using a sufficiently broad database. Due to its coupling to stomatal conductance changes in the parameterisation of photosynthetic capacity may potentially influence transpiration rates and vegetation surface temperature. Here, we provide a constrained parameterisation of photosynthetic capacity for different plant functional types in the context of the photosynthesis model proposed by Farquhar et al. (1980), based on a comprehensive compilation of leaf photosynthesis rates and leaf nitrogen content. Mean values of photosynthetic capacity were implemented into the coupled climate-vegetation model ECHAM5/JSBACH and modelled gross primary production (GPP) is compared to a compilation of independent observations on stand scale. Compared to the current standard parameterisation the root-mean-squared difference between modelled and observed GPP is substantially reduced for almost all PFTs by the new parameterisation of photosynthetic capacity. We find a systematic depression of NUE (photosynthetic capacity divided by leaf nitrogen content) on certain tropical soils that are known to be deficient in phosphorus. Photosynthetic capacity of tropical trees derived by this study is substantially lower than standard estimates currently used in terrestrial biosphere models. This causes a decrease of modelled GPP while it significantly increases modelled tropical vegetation surface temperatures, up to 0.8°C. These results emphasise the importance of a constrained parameterisation of photosynthetic capacity not only for the carbon cycle, but also for the climate system.

Current and future background ozone simulations for Mexico using a multi-scale regional climate modeling system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lamb, B. K.; Gonzalez Abraham, R.; Avise, J. C.; Chung, S. H.; Salathe, E. P.; Zhang, Y.; Guenther, A. B.; Wiedinmyer, C.; Duhl, T.; Streets, D. G.

2013-05-01

Global change will clearly have a significant impact on the environment. Among the concerns for future air quality in North America, intercontinental transport of pollution has become increasingly important. In this study, we examined the effect of projected changes in Asian emissions and emissions from lightning and wildfires to produce ozone background concentrations within Mexico and the continental US. This provides a basis for developing an understanding of North American background levels and how they may change in the future. Meteorological fields were downscaled from the results of the ECHAM5 global climate model using the Weather Research Forecast (WRF) model. Two nested domains were employed, one covering most of the Northern Hemisphere from eastern Asia to North America using 220 km grid cells (semi-hemispheric domain) and one covering the continental US and northern Mexico using 36 km grid cells. Meteorological results from WRF were used to drive the MEGAN biogenic emissions model, the SMOKE emissions processing tool, and the CMAQ chemical transport model to predict ozone concentrations for current (1995-2004) and future (2045-2054) summertime conditions. The MEGAN model was used to calculate biogenic emissions for all simulations. For the semi-hemispheric domain, year 2000 global emissions of gases (ozone precursors) from anthropogenic (outside of North America), natural, and biomass burning sources from the POET and EDGAR emission inventories were used. The global tabulation for black and organic carbon (BC and OC respectively) was obtained from Bond et al. (2004) For the future decade, the current emissions were projected to the year 2050 following the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) A1B emission scenario. Anthropogenic emissions from the US, Canada, and Mexico were omitted so that only global background concentrations, and local biogenic, wildfire, and lightning emissions were treated. In this paper, we focus on background ozone levels in Mexico due to changes in future climate, local biogenic emissions and global emissions.

Impact of tropical Atlantic sea-surface temperature biases on the simulated atmospheric circulation and precipitation over the Atlantic region: An ECHAM6 model study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eichhorn, Astrid; Bader, Jürgen

2017-09-01

As many coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models, the coupled Earth System Model developed at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology suffers from severe sea-surface temperature (SST) biases in the tropical Atlantic. We performed a set of SST sensitivity experiments with its atmospheric model component ECHAM6 to understand the impact of tropical Atlantic SST biases on atmospheric circulation and precipitation. The model was forced by a climatology of observed global SSTs to focus on simulated seasonal and annual mean state climate. Through the superposition of varying tropical Atlantic bias patterns extracted from the MPI-ESM on top of the control field, this study investigates the relevance of the seasonal variation and spatial structure of tropical Atlantic biases for the simulated response. Results show that the position and structure of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) across the Atlantic is significantly affected, exhibiting a dynamically forced shift of annual mean precipitation maximum to the east of the Atlantic basin as well as a southward shift of the oceanic rain belt. The SST-induced changes in the ITCZ in turn affect seasonal rainfall over adjacent continents. However not only the ITCZ position but also other effects arising from biases in tropical Atlantic SSTs, e.g. variations in the wind field, change the simulation of precipitation over land. The seasonal variation and spatial pattern of tropical Atlantic SST biases turns out to be crucial for the simulated atmospheric response and is essential for analyzing the contribution of SST biases to coupled model mean state biases. Our experiments show that MPI-ESM mean-state biases in the Atlantic sector are mainly driven by SST biases in the tropical Atlantic while teleconnections from other basins seem to play a minor role.

Earth System Chemistry integrated Modelling (ESCiMo) with the Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy) version 2.51

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jöckel, Patrick; Tost, Holger; Pozzer, Andrea; Kunze, Markus; Kirner, Oliver; Brenninkmeijer, Carl A. M.; Brinkop, Sabine; Cai, Duy S.; Dyroff, Christoph; Eckstein, Johannes; Frank, Franziska; Garny, Hella; Gottschaldt, Klaus-Dirk; Graf, Phoebe; Grewe, Volker; Kerkweg, Astrid; Kern, Bastian; Matthes, Sigrun; Mertens, Mariano; Meul, Stefanie; Neumaier, Marco; Nützel, Matthias; Oberländer-Hayn, Sophie; Ruhnke, Roland; Runde, Theresa; Sander, Rolf; Scharffe, Dieter; Zahn, Andreas

2016-03-01

Three types of reference simulations, as recommended by the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI), have been performed with version 2.51 of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts - Hamburg (ECHAM)/Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy) Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) model: hindcast simulations (1950-2011), hindcast simulations with specified dynamics (1979-2013), i.e. nudged towards ERA-Interim reanalysis data, and combined hindcast and projection simulations (1950-2100). The manuscript summarizes the updates of the model system and details the different model set-ups used, including the on-line calculated diagnostics. Simulations have been performed with two different nudging set-ups, with and without interactive tropospheric aerosol, and with and without a coupled ocean model. Two different vertical resolutions have been applied. The on-line calculated sources and sinks of reactive species are quantified and a first evaluation of the simulation results from a global perspective is provided as a quality check of the data. The focus is on the intercomparison of the different model set-ups. The simulation data will become publicly available via CCMI and the Climate and Environmental Retrieval and Archive (CERA) database of the German Climate Computing Centre (DKRZ). This manuscript is intended to serve as an extensive reference for further analyses of the Earth System Chemistry integrated Modelling (ESCiMo) simulations.

An improved ice cloud formation parameterization in the EMAC model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bacer, Sara; Pozzer, Andrea; Karydis, Vlassis; Tsimpidi, Alexandra; Tost, Holger; Sullivan, Sylvia; Nenes, Athanasios; Barahona, Donifan; Lelieveld, Jos

2017-04-01

Cirrus clouds cover about 30% of the Earth's surface and are an important modulator of the radiative energy budget of the atmosphere. Despite their importance in the global climate system, there are still large uncertainties in understanding the microphysical properties and interactions with aerosols. Ice crystal formation is quite complex and a variety of mechanisms exists for ice nucleation, depending on aerosol characteristics and environmental conditions. Ice crystals can be formed via homogeneous nucleation or heterogeneous nucleation of ice-nucleating particles in different ways (contact, immersion, condensation, deposition). We have implemented the computationally efficient cirrus cloud formation parameterization by Barahona and Nenes (2009) into the EMAC (ECHAM5/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry) model in order to improve the representation of ice clouds and aerosol-cloud interactions. The parameterization computes the ice crystal number concentration from precursor aerosols and ice-nucleating particles accounting for the competition between homogeneous and heterogeneous nucleation and among different freezing modes. Our work shows the differences and the improvements obtained after the implementation with respect to the previous version of EMAC.

Climate change impact on the occurrence of selected pests in the regional scale in the Czech Republic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kocmankova, E.; Trnka, M.; Zalud, Z.; Semeradova, D.; Dubrovsky, M.; Juroch, J.; Mozny, M.

2009-04-01

Climate conditions exert significant influence over the the population dynamic, life cycle duration, infestation pressure and the overall occurrence of majority of agricultural pests and diseases. Particularly in the case of those pest species whose development is directly linked with the climate conditions the shift of their climatic niche or their infestation capability is to be expected under the changing climate. Te presented study is focused on the most important potato pest i.e Colorado potato beetle (Leptinotarsa decemlineata, Say 1824) and most important pest of grain maize i.e. European corn borer (Ostrinia nubilalis, Hübner 1796). Simulations of potential distribution of pests in the Czech Republic in the conditions of climate change were made with the usage of dynamical model CLIMEX and by the interpolation of output EI from 43 locations there are climate conditions of almost whole area of the Czech Republic considered as favorable for pest' survival. The models validation was based on the comparison of the modeled potential pests' distribution with the field observations in the current climate conditions. Under the expected climate conditions the pests will most likely be able to complete their development earlier and in higher population densities. Both mechanisms might cause a subsequent increase of the severity of the pest infestation. In addition to this the higher temperature and its earlier coming in the beginning of the vegetative season may support the mobility and faster local spread of some species. The estimates of the future climate is based on the assumption of slow increase of green house gases emissions and low climate sensitivity to their rising concentration (LOW B1) as well as the "opposite" scenario assuming rapid growth of emissions and the high sensitivity of the climate system (HIGH A2). Three GCM models that were driven by these emission scenarios included HadCM3, NCAR-PCM and ECHAM4. For Colorado potato beetle the realization of HIGH A2 in combination with HadCM3 means almost the half of the arable land endangered by the occurrence of bivoltine population by 2025. The same model indicates for 2050 this area increasing by 72 %. According to ECHAM A2 2050 is the occurrence of partial third generation likely in the 45 % of arable land and completed third generation in the 0.2 % of arable land. The results show that climate will be a significant factor determining the development and survival of the European corn borer. According to the presented models estimations the area of the univoltine population establishment could be through the next 20 - 30 years significantly larger and till 2050 it could cover most of the agriculturally suitable land in the Czech Republic. The threat of the ECB bivoltine population expansion in the next decade is not immediate but is likely between 2025 - 2050 at least in the warmest areas in the Czech Republic. There is the apparent risk of the increasing damage caused by pests due to the shifts in the climate conditions. It should be stressed that the study is based on so called potential distribution which means the expected geographical distribution of the given species is based only on the climate conditions regardless of any other factors determining the species abundance or distribution. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS: The study was supported by the project of Grant Agency of the Czech Republic (no. 521/08/1682), th 6th FP EU research projects CECILIA (no GOCE 037005) and the 6th FP EU project Adagio (Adaptation of Agriculture in European Regions at Environmental Risk under Climate Change) SSPE-CT-2006-044210.

Ensemble of regional climate model projections for Ireland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nolan, Paul; McGrath, Ray

2016-04-01

The method of Regional Climate Modelling (RCM) was employed to assess the impacts of a warming climate on the mid-21st-century climate of Ireland. The RCM simulations were run at high spatial resolution, up to 4 km, thus allowing a better evaluation of the local effects of climate change. Simulations were run for a reference period 1981-2000 and future period 2041-2060. Differences between the two periods provide a measure of climate change. To address the issue of uncertainty, a multi-model ensemble approach was employed. Specifically, the future climate of Ireland was simulated using three different RCMs, driven by four Global Climate Models (GCMs). To account for the uncertainty in future emissions, a number of SRES (B1, A1B, A2) and RCP (4.5, 8.5) emission scenarios were used to simulate the future climate. Through the ensemble approach, the uncertainty in the RCM projections can be partially quantified, thus providing a measure of confidence in the predictions. In addition, likelihood values can be assigned to the projections. The RCMs used in this work are the COnsortium for Small-scale MOdeling-Climate Limited-area Modelling (COSMO-CLM, versions 3 and 4) model and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The GCMs used are the Max Planck Institute's ECHAM5, the UK Met Office's HadGEM2-ES, the CGCM3.1 model from the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and the EC-Earth consortium GCM. The projections for mid-century indicate an increase of 1-1.6°C in mean annual temperatures, with the largest increases seen in the east of the country. Warming is enhanced for the extremes (i.e. hot or cold days), with the warmest 5% of daily maximum summer temperatures projected to increase by 0.7-2.6°C. The coldest 5% of night-time temperatures in winter are projected to rise by 1.1-3.1°C. Averaged over the whole country, the number of frost days is projected to decrease by over 50%. The projections indicate an average increase in the length of the growing season of over 35 days per year. Results show significant projected decreases in mean annual, spring and summer precipitation amounts by mid-century. The projected decreases are largest for summer, with "likely" reductions ranging from 0% to 20%. The frequencies of heavy precipitation events show notable increases (approximately 20%) during the winter and autumn months. The number of extended dry periods is projected to increase substantially during autumn and summer. Regional variations of projected precipitation change remain statistically elusive. The energy content of the wind is projected to significantly decrease for the future spring, summer and autumn months. Projected increases for winter were found to be statistically insignificant. The projected decreases were largest for summer, with "likely" values ranging from 3% to 15%. Results suggest that the tracks of intense storms are projected to extend further south over Ireland relative to those in the reference simulation. As extreme storm events are rare, the storm-tracking research needs to be extended. Future work will focus on analysing a larger ensemble, thus allowing a robust statistical analysis of extreme storm track projections.

Trace gas variability within the Asian monsoon anticyclone on intraseasonal and interannual timescales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nützel, Matthias; Dameris, Martin; Fierli, Federico; Stiller, Gabriele; Garny, Hella; Jöckel, Patrick

2016-04-01

The Asian monsoon and the associated monsoon anticyclone have the potential of substantially influencing the composition of the UTLS (upper troposphere/lower stratosphere) and hence global climate. Here we study the variability of the Asian summer monsoon anticyclone in the UTLS on intraseasonal and interannual timescales using results from long term simulations performed with the CCM EMAC (ECHAM5/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry). In particular, we focus on specified dynamics simulations (Newtonian relaxation to ERA-Interim data) covering the period 1980-2013, which have been performed within the ESCiMo (Earth System Chemistry integrated Modelling) project (Jöckel et al., GMDD, 2015). Our main focus lies on variability of the anticyclone's strength (in terms of potential vorticity, geopotential and circulation) and variability in trace gas signatures (O3, H2O) within the anticyclone. To support our findings, we also include observations from satellites (MIPAS, MLS). Our work is linked to the EU StratoClim campaign in 2016.

A New Framework for Cumulus Parametrization - A CPT in action

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jakob, C.; Peters, K.; Protat, A.; Kumar, V.

2016-12-01

The representation of convection in climate model remains a major Achilles Heel in our pursuit of better predictions of global and regional climate. The basic principle underpinning the parametrisation of tropical convection in global weather and climate models is that there exist discernible interactions between the resolved model scale and the parametrised cumulus scale. Furthermore, there must be at least some predictive power in the larger scales for the statistical behaviour on small scales for us to be able to formally close the parametrised equations. The presentation will discuss a new framework for cumulus parametrisation based on the idea of separating the prediction of cloud area from that of velocity. This idea is put into practice by combining an existing multi-scale stochastic cloud model with observations to arrive at the prediction of the area fraction for deep precipitating convection. Using mid-tropospheric humidity and vertical motion as predictors, the model is shown to reproduce the observed behaviour of both mean and variability of deep convective area fraction well. The framework allows for the inclusion of convective organisation and can - in principle - be made resolution-aware or resolution-independent. When combined with simple assumptions about cloud-base vertical motion the model can be used as a closure assumption in any existing cumulus parametrisation. Results of applying this idea in the the ECHAM model indicate significant improvements in the simulation of tropical variability, including but not limited to the MJO. This presentation will highlight how the close collaboration of the observational, theoretical and model development community in the spirit of the climate process teams can lead to significant progress in long-standing issues in climate modelling while preserving the freedom of individual groups in pursuing their specific implementation of an agreed framework.

Introducing a boreal wetland model within the Earth System model framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Getzieh, R. J.; Brovkin, V.; Reick, C.; Kleinen, T.; Raddatz, T.; Raivonen, M.; Sevanto, S.

2009-04-01

Wetlands of the northern high latitudes with their low temperatures and waterlogged conditions are prerequisite for peat accumulation. They store at least 25% of the global soil organic carbon and constitute currently the largest natural source of methane. These boreal and subarctic peat carbon pools are sensitive to climate change since the ratio of carbon sequestration and emission is closely dependent on hydrology and temperature. Global biogeochemistry models used for simulations of CO2 dynamics in the past and future climates usually ignore changes in the peat storages. Our approach aims at the evaluation of the boreal wetland feedback to climate through the CO2 and CH4 fluxes on decadal to millennial time scales. A generic model of organic matter accumulation and decay in boreal wetlands is under development in the MPI for Meteorology in cooperation with the University of Helsinki. Our approach is to develop a wetland model which is consistent with the physical and biogeochemical components of the land surface module JSBACH as a part of the Earth System model framework ECHAM5-MPIOM-JSBACH. As prototypes, we use modelling approach by Frolking et al. (2001) for the peat dynamics and the wetland model by Wania (2007) for vegetation cover and plant productivity. An initial distribution of wetlands follows the GLWD-3 map by Lehner and Döll (2004). First results of the modelling approach will be presented. References: Frolking, S. E., N. T. Roulet, T. R. Moore, P. J. H. Richard, M. Lavoie and S. D. Muller (2001): Modeling Northern Peatland Decomposition and Peat Accumulation, Ecosystems, 4, 479-498. Lehner, B., Döll P. (2004): Development and validation of a global database of lakes, reservoirs and wetlands. Journal of Hydrology 296 (1-4), 1-22. Wania, R. (2007): Modelling northern peatland land surface processes, vegetation dynamics and methane emissions. PhD thesis, University of Bristol, 122 pp.

Hydroclimatic sustainability assessment of changing climate on cholera in the Ganges-Brahmaputra basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nasr-Azadani, Fariborz; Khan, Rakibul; Rahimikollu, Javad; Unnikrishnan, Avinash; Akanda, Ali; Alam, Munirul; Huq, Anwar; Jutla, Antarpreet; Colwell, Rita

2017-10-01

The association of cholera and climate has been extensively documented. However, determining the effects of changing climate on the occurrence of disease remains a challenge. Bimodal peaks of cholera in Bengal Delta are hypothesized to be linked to asymmetric flow of the Ganges and Brahmaputra rivers. Spring cholera is related to intrusion of bacteria-laden coastal seawater during low flow seasons, while autumn cholera results from cross-contamination of water resources when high flows in the rivers cause massive inundation. Coarse resolution of General Circulation Model (GCM) output (usually at 100 - 300 km)cannot be used to evaluate variability at the local scale(10-20 km),hence the goal of this study was to develop a framework that could be used to understand impacts of climate change on occurrence of cholera. Instead of a traditional approach of downscaling precipitation, streamflow of the two rivers was directly linked to GCM outputs, achieving reasonable accuracy (R2 = 0.89 for the Ganges and R2 = 0.91 for the Brahmaputra)using machine learning algorithms (Support Vector Regression-Particle Swarm Optimization). Copula methods were used to determine probabilistic risks of cholera under several discharge conditions. Key results, using model outputs from ECHAM5, GFDL, andHadCM3for A1B and A2 scenarios, suggest that the combined low flow of the two rivers may increase in the future, with high flows increasing for first half of this century, decreasing thereafter. Spring and autumn cholera, assuming societal conditions remain constant e.g., at the current rate, may decrease. However significant shifts were noted in the magnitude of river discharge suggesting that cholera dynamics of the delta may well demonstrate an uncertain predictable pattern of occurrence over the next century.

Land cover maps, BVOC emissions, and SOA burden in a global aerosol-climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stanelle, Tanja; Henrot, Alexandra; Bey, Isaelle

2015-04-01

It has been reported that different land cover representations influence the emission of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOC) (e.g. Guenther et al., 2006). But the land cover forcing used in model simulations is quite uncertain (e.g. Jung et al., 2006). As a consequence the simulated emission of BVOCs depends on the applied land cover map. To test the sensitivity of global and regional estimates of BVOC emissions on the applied land cover map we applied 3 different land cover maps into our global aerosol-climate model ECHAM6-HAM2.2. We found a high sensitivity for tropical regions. BVOCs are a very prominent precursor for the production of Secondary Organic Aerosols (SOA). Therefore the sensitivity of BVOC emissions on land cover maps impacts the SOA burden in the atmosphere. With our model system we are able to quantify that impact. References: Guenther et al. (2006), Estimates of global terrestrial isoprene emissions using MEGAN, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 6, 3181-3210, doi:10.5194/acp-6-3181-2006. Jung et al. (2006), Exploiting synergies of global land cover products for carbon cycle modeling, Rem. Sens. Environm., 101, 534-553, doi:10.1016/j.rse.2006.01.020.

Impact of climate change on water resources status: A case study for Crete Island, Greece

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koutroulis, Aristeidis G.; Tsanis, Ioannis K.; Daliakopoulos, Ioannis N.; Jacob, Daniela

2013-02-01

SummaryAn assessment of the impact of global climate change on the water resources status of the island of Crete, for a range of 24 different scenarios of projected hydro-climatological regime is presented. Three "state of the art" Global Climate Models (GCMs) and an ensemble of Regional Climate Models (RCMs) under emission scenarios B1, A2 and A1B provide future precipitation (P) and temperature (T) estimates that are bias adjusted against observations. The ensemble of RCMs for the A1B scenario project a higher P reduction compared to GCMs projections under A2 and B1 scenarios. Among GCMs model results, the ECHAM model projects a higher P reduction compared to IPSL and CNCM. Water availability for the whole island at basin scale until 2100 is estimated using the SAC-SMA rainfall-runoff model And a set of demand and infrastructure scenarios are adopted to simulate potential water use. While predicted reduction of water availability under the B1 emission scenario can be handled with water demand stabilized at present values and full implementation of planned infrastructure, other scenarios require additional measures and a robust signal of water insufficiency is projected. Despite inherent uncertainties, the quantitative impact of the projected changes on water availability indicates that climate change plays an important role to water use and management in controlling future water status in a Mediterranean island like Crete. The results of the study reinforce the necessity to improve and update local water management planning and adaptation strategies in order to attain future water security.

Nudging atmosphere and ocean reanalyses for seasonal climate predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Piontek, Robert; Baehr, Johanna; Kornblueh, Luis; Müller, Wolfgang Alexander; Haak, Helmuth; Botzet, Michael; Matei, Daniela

2010-05-01

Seasonal climate forecasts based on state-of-the-art climate models have been developed recently. Here, we critically discuss the obstacles encountered in the setup of the ECHAM6/MPIOM global coupled climate model to perform climate predictions on seasonal to decadal time scales. We particularly focus on the initialization procedure, especially on the implementation of the nudging scheme, in which different reanalysis products are used in the atmosphere (e.g.ERA40), and the ocean (e.g., GECCO). Nudging in the atmosphere appears to be sensitive to the following choices: limiting the spectral range of nudging, whether or not temperature is nudged, the strength of the nudging coefficient for surface pressure, and the height at which the planetary boundary layer is excluded from nudging. We find that including nudging in both the atmosphere and the ocean gives improved results over nudging only the ocean or the atmosphere. For the implementation of the nudging in the atmosphere, we find the most significant improvements in the solution when either the planetary boundary layer is excluded, or if nudging of temperature is omitted. There are significant improvements in the solution when resolution is increased in both the atmosphere and in the ocean. Our tests form the basis for the prediction system introduced in the abstract of Müller et al., where hindcasts are analysed as well.

The role of sea-ice albedo in the climate of slowly rotating aquaplanets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salameh, Josiane; Popp, Max; Marotzke, Jochem

2018-04-01

We investigate the influence of the rotation period (P_{rot}) on the mean climate of an aquaplanet, with a focus on the role of sea-ice albedo. We perform aquaplanet simulations with the atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM6 for various rotation periods from one Earth-day to 365 Earth-days in which case the planet is synchronously rotating. The global-mean surface temperature decreases with increasing P_{rot} and sea ice expands equatorwards. The cooling of the mean climate with increasing P_{rot} is caused partly by the high surface albedo of sea ice on the dayside and partly by the high albedo of the deep convective clouds over the substellar region. The cooling caused by these deep convective clouds is weak for non-synchronous rotations compared to synchronous rotation. Sensitivity simulations with the sea-ice model switched off show that the global-mean surface temperature is up to 27 K higher than in our main simulations with sea ice and thus highlight the large influence of sea ice on the climate. We present the first estimates of the influence of the rotation period on the transition of an Earth-like climate to global glaciation. Our results suggest that global glaciation of planets with synchronous rotation occurs at substantially lower incoming solar irradiation than for planets with slow but non-synchronous rotation.

Impact of seasonal synoptic weather types on local PM10 concentrations in Bavaria/Germany: recent conditions and future projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weitnauer, Claudia; Beck, Christoph; Jacobeit, Jucundus

2015-04-01

It is a matter of common knowledge that local concentrations of PM10 (fine particles in the air with a medium diameter less than 10 μm) vary with the seasons in Europe. These concentrations are influenced on the one hand by the amount of natural and anthropogenic emissions and on the other hand by large-scale and local meteorological conditions. In Bavaria (part of southern Germany) as the target region of the present study, the PM10 concentrations are particularly high in winter time. One reason for this are increased particle emissions due to domestic heating and traffic load in December, January and February. As several studies in other European regions indicated, a distinct effect of the large-scale synoptic weather situation in winter on local PM10 concentrations should be considered as another reason. The main task of this study is to use seasonal synoptic weather types, which are optimized with respect to daily mean PM10 data at 16 Bavarian cities, and therefore are classified by using daily gridded NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data (2.5° x 2.5° horizontal resolution) for the recent period 1980 - 2011 over a Central European spatial domain, to describe the impact of the large-scale meteorological conditions on the local particle concentrations. The weather types are related to monthly PM10 indices by using different transfer techniques like direct synoptic downscaling, multiple regression and generalized linear models as well as random forests. The PM10 indices are determined by averaging daily to monthly data (PMmean) or by counting the daily exceedances of a particular threshold (> 50 μg/m3, PMe50). The generated transfer models are evaluated in calibration and validation periods using several forecast skills, for example the mean squared skill score (MSSS) or the Heidke Skill Score (HSS). The sufficiently performing models are then applied to weather types derived from future climate change scenarios of the global climate model ECHAM 6 for the IPCC scenarios RCP 4.5 and 8.5 in order to estimate future climate-change induced modifications of local PM10 concentrations in Bavaria.

Parameterization of dust emissions in the global atmospheric chemistry-climate model EMAC: impact of nudging and soil properties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Astitha, M.; Lelieveld, J.; Abdel Kader, M.; Pozzer, A.; de Meij, A.

2012-11-01

Airborne desert dust influences radiative transfer, atmospheric chemistry and dynamics, as well as nutrient transport and deposition. It directly and indirectly affects climate on regional and global scales. Two versions of a parameterization scheme to compute desert dust emissions are incorporated into the atmospheric chemistry general circulation model EMAC (ECHAM5/MESSy2.41 Atmospheric Chemistry). One uses a globally uniform soil particle size distribution, whereas the other explicitly accounts for different soil textures worldwide. We have tested these two versions and investigated the sensitivity to input parameters, using remote sensing data from the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) and dust concentrations and deposition measurements from the AeroCom dust benchmark database (and others). The two versions are shown to produce similar atmospheric dust loads in the N-African region, while they deviate in the Asian, Middle Eastern and S-American regions. The dust outflow from Africa over the Atlantic Ocean is accurately simulated by both schemes, in magnitude, location and seasonality. Approximately 70% of the modelled annual deposition data and 70-75% of the modelled monthly aerosol optical depth (AOD) in the Atlantic Ocean stations lay in the range 0.5 to 2 times the observations for all simulations. The two versions have similar performance, even though the total annual source differs by ~50%, which underscores the importance of transport and deposition processes (being the same for both versions). Even though the explicit soil particle size distribution is considered more realistic, the simpler scheme appears to perform better in several locations. This paper discusses the differences between the two versions of the dust emission scheme, focusing on their limitations and strengths in describing the global dust cycle and suggests possible future improvements.

Possible influence of dust on hurricane genesis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bretl, Sebastian; Reutter, Philipp; Raible, Christoph C.; Ferrachat, Sylvaine; Lohmann, Ulrike

2014-05-01

Tropical Cyclones (TCs) belong to the most extreme events in nature. In the past decade, the possible impact of dust on Atlantic hurricanes receives growing interest. As mineral dust is able to absorb incoming solar radiation and therefore warm the surrounding air, the presence of dust can lead to a reduction of sea surface temperature (SST) and an increase in atmospheric stability. Furthermore, resulting baroclinic effects and the dry Saharan easterly jet lead to an enhanced vertical shear of the horizontal winds. SST, stability, moisture and vertical wind shear are known to potentially impact hurricane activity. But how Saharan dust influences these prerequisites for hurricane formation is not yet clear. Some dynamical mechanisms induced by the SAL might even strengthen hurricanes. An adequate framework for investigating the possible impact of dust on hurricanes is comparing high resolution simulations (~0.5°x0.5°, 31 vertical levels) with and without radiatively active dust aerosols. To accomplish this task, we are using the general circulation model ECHAM6 coupled to a modified version of the aerosol model HAM, ECHAM6-HAM-Dust. Instead of the five aerosol species HAM normally contains, the modified version takes only insoluble dust into account, but modifies the scavenging parameters in order to have a similar lifetime of dust as in the full ECHAM6-HAM. All remaining aerosols are prescribed. To evaluate the effects of dust on hurricanes, a TC detection and tracking method is applied on the results. ECHAM6-HAM-Dust was used in two configurations, one with radiatively active dust aerosols and one with dust being not radiatively active. For both set-ups, 10 Monte-Carlo simulations of the year 2005 were performed. A statistical method which identifies controlling parameters of hurricane genesis was applied on North Atlantic developing and non-developing disturbances in all simulations, comparing storms in the two sets of simulations. Hereby, dust can be assigned a more influencing role on TC genesis in the simulations with active dust. Despite dust is seeming to have a negative influence on TC genesis, the relative importance of dust compared to the sea surface temperature (SST) cannot be determined thoroughly. This is largely due to a similar pattern of SST and dust off the west coast of Africa, so that possible effects of dust and SST could hardly be separated.

What is the importance of climate model bias when projecting the impacts of climate change on land surface processes?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Liu, M. L.; Rajagopalan, K.; Chung, S. H.

2014-05-16

Regional climate change impact (CCI) studies have widely involved downscaling and bias-correcting (BC) Global Climate Model (GCM)-projected climate for driving land surface models. However, BC may cause uncertainties in projecting hydrologic and biogeochemical responses to future climate due to the impaired spatiotemporal covariance of climate variables and a breakdown of physical conservation principles. Here we quantify the impact of BC on simulated climate-driven changes in water variables(evapotranspiration, ET; runoff; snow water equivalent, SWE; and water demand for irrigation), crop yield, biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOC), nitric oxide (NO) emissions, and dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) export over the Pacific Northwest (PNW)more » Region. We also quantify the impacts on net primary production (NPP) over a small watershed in the region (HJ Andrews). Simulation results from the coupled ECHAM5/MPI-OM model with A1B emission scenario were firstly dynamically downscaled to 12 km resolutions with WRF model. Then a quantile mapping based statistical downscaling model was used to downscale them into 1/16th degree resolution daily climate data over historical and future periods. Two series climate data were generated according to the option of bias-correction (i.e. with bias-correction (BC) and without bias-correction, NBC). Impact models were then applied to estimate hydrologic and biogeochemical responses to both BC and NBC meteorological datasets. These im20 pact models include a macro-scale hydrologic model (VIC), a coupled cropping system model (VIC-CropSyst), an ecohydrologic model (RHESSys), a biogenic emissions model (MEGAN), and a nutrient export model (Global-NEWS). Results demonstrate that the BC and NBC climate data provide consistent estimates of the climate-driven changes in water fluxes (ET, runoff, and water demand), VOCs (isoprene and monoterpenes) and NO emissions, mean crop yield, and river DIN export over the PNW domain. However, significant differences rise from projected SWE, crop yield from dry lands, and HJ Andrews’s ET between BC and NBC data. Even though BC post-processing has no significant impacts on most of the studied variables when taking PNW as a whole, their effects have large spatial variations and some local areas are substantially influenced. In addition, there are months during which BC and NBC post-processing produces significant differences in projected changes, such as summer runoff. Factor-controlled simulations indicate that BC post-processing of precipitation and temperature both substantially contribute to these differences at region scales. We conclude that there are trade-offs between using BC climate data for offline CCI studies vs. direct modeled climate data. These trade-offs should be considered when designing integrated modeling frameworks for specific applications; e.g., BC may be more important when considering impacts on reservoir operations in mountainous watersheds than when investigating impacts on biogenic emissions and air quality (where VOCs are a primary indicator).« less

Assessing the impact of a future volcanic eruption on decadal predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Illing, Sebastian; Kadow, Christopher; Pohlmann, Holger; Timmreck, Claudia

2018-06-01

The likelihood of a large volcanic eruption in the future provides the largest uncertainty concerning the evolution of the climate system on the timescale of a few years, but also an excellent opportunity to learn about the behavior of the climate system, and our models thereof. So the following question emerges: how predictable is the response of the climate system to future eruptions? By this we mean to what extent will the volcanic perturbation affect decadal climate predictions and how does the pre-eruption climate state influence the impact of the volcanic signal on the predictions? To address these questions, we performed decadal forecasts with the MiKlip prediction system, which is based on the MPI-ESM, in the low-resolution configuration for the initialization years 2012 and 2014, which differ in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) phase. Each forecast contains an artificial Pinatubo-like eruption starting in June of the first prediction year and consists of 10 ensemble members. For the construction of the aerosol radiative forcing, we used the global aerosol model ECHAM5-HAM in a version adapted for volcanic eruptions. We investigate the response of different climate variables, including near-surface air temperature, precipitation, frost days, and sea ice area fraction. Our results show that the average global cooling response over 4 years of about 0.2 K and the precipitation decrease of about 0.025 mm day-1 is relatively robust throughout the different experiments and seemingly independent of the initialization state. However, on a regional scale, we find substantial differences between the initializations. The cooling effect in the North Atlantic and Europe lasts longer and the Arctic sea ice increase is stronger in the simulations initialized in 2014. In contrast, the forecast initialized in 2012 with a negative PDO shows a prolonged cooling in the North Pacific basin.

Improving groundwater predictions utilizing seasonal precipitation forecasts from general circulation models forced with sea surface temperature forecasts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Almanaseer, Naser; Sankarasubramanian, A.; Bales, Jerad

2014-01-01

Recent studies have found a significant association between climatic variability and basin hydroclimatology, particularly groundwater levels, over the southeast United States. The research reported in this paper evaluates the potential in developing 6-month-ahead groundwater-level forecasts based on the precipitation forecasts from ECHAM 4.5 General Circulation Model Forced with Sea Surface Temperature forecasts. Ten groundwater wells and nine streamgauges from the USGS Groundwater Climate Response Network and Hydro-Climatic Data Network were selected to represent groundwater and surface water flows, respectively, having minimal anthropogenic influences within the Flint River Basin in Georgia, United States. The writers employ two low-dimensional models [principle component regression (PCR) and canonical correlation analysis (CCA)] for predicting groundwater and streamflow at both seasonal and monthly timescales. Three modeling schemes are considered at the beginning of January to predict winter (January, February, and March) and spring (April, May, and June) streamflow and groundwater for the selected sites within the Flint River Basin. The first scheme (model 1) is a null model and is developed using PCR for every streamflow and groundwater site using previous 3-month observations (October, November, and December) available at that particular site as predictors. Modeling schemes 2 and 3 are developed using PCR and CCA, respectively, to evaluate the role of precipitation forecasts in improving monthly and seasonal groundwater predictions. Modeling scheme 3, which employs a CCA approach, is developed for each site by considering observed groundwater levels from nearby sites as predictands. The performance of these three schemes is evaluated using two metrics (correlation coefficient and relative RMS error) by developing groundwater-level forecasts based on leave-five-out cross-validation. Results from the research reported in this paper show that using precipitation forecasts in climate models improves the ability to predict the interannual variability of winter and spring streamflow and groundwater levels over the basin. However, significant conditional bias exists in all the three modeling schemes, which indicates the need to consider improved modeling schemes as well as the availability of longer time-series of observed hydroclimatic information over the basin.

A Comparative Analysis of Hydrologic Response to Climate Change in Developed and Undeveloped Watersheds on the New Jersey Coastal Plain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Daraio, J. A.

2014-12-01

Climate change is projected to have an impact on precipitation patterns across the Mid-Atlantic with the likelihood of an increase in the frequency and magnitude of extreme precipitation events. A greater proportion of total annual precipitation could fall in larger events with the potential to impact flooding, storm water infrastructure, and water supply. The watersheds of the coastal plain of New Jersey draining to the Atlantic and Delaware Bay have mild slopes are underlain by very sandy soils. These areas serve as sources of recharge to the Kirkwood-Cohansey aquifer, which is an important water supply for the region. The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) was used to simulate the potential impacts of climate change on stream flow and groundwater recharge in two watersheds located within the New Jersey coastal plain. The Batsto River watershed includes parts of the Pinelands Reserve with relatively little development in some its headwater areas, primarily small towns and agricultural land use. The Maurice River watershed includes several urbanized areas along with some agricultural land, but population is expecting to increase within the next 10-20 years. The Maurice River basin is outside the Pinelands Reserve but has significant area that contains Pine Barrens. Models were calibrated using observed stream flow from USGS gages and gridded meteorological data from 1995-2002 and validated with observed data from 2002-2005. The calibrated models were forced using an ensemble of three bias-corrected downscaled climate projections (CMIP5, NOAA NCEP, and ECHAM) to assess and compare the potential response of these two watersheds. All meteorological data were obtained online from the GeoData Portal. Preliminary results indicate that climate change is likely to have a greater impact on stream flow in the developed Maurice River basin than in the undeveloped Batsto River basin. More detailed analyses of stream flow and the potential impacts on groundwater recharge are ongoing. These models will serve as the basis of further research that will examine the potential impacts of land-use change and climate change on stream flow, stream temperature, and groundwater recharge.

Modelling of mineral dust for interglacial and glacial climate conditions with a focus on Antarctica

DOE PAGES

Sudarchikova, Natalia; Mikolajewicz, Uwe; Timmreck, C.; ...

2015-05-19

The mineral dust cycle responds to climate variations and plays an important role in the climate system by affecting the radiative balance of the atmosphere and modifying biogeochemistry. Polar ice cores provide unique information about deposition of aeolian dust particles transported over long distances. These cores are a palaeoclimate proxy archive of climate variability thousands of years ago. The current study is a first attempt to simulate past interglacial dust cycles with a global aerosol–climate model ECHAM5-HAM. The results are used to explain the dust deposition changes in Antarctica in terms of quantitative contribution of different processes, such as emission,more » atmospheric transport and precipitation, which will help to interpret palaeodata from Antarctic ice cores. The investigated periods include four interglacial time slices: the pre-industrial control (CTRL), mid-Holocene (6000 yr BP; hereafter referred to as \\"6 kyr\\"), last glacial inception (115 000 yr BP; hereafter \\"115 kyr\\") and Eemian (126 000 yr BP; hereafter \\"126 kyr\\"). One glacial time interval, the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) (21 000 yr BP; hereafter \\"21 kyr\\"), was simulated as well to be a reference test for the model. Results suggest an increase in mineral dust deposition globally, and in Antarctica, in the past interglacial periods relative to the pre-industrial CTRL simulation. Approximately two-thirds of the increase in the mid-Holocene and Eemian is attributed to enhanced Southern Hemisphere dust emissions. Slightly strengthened transport efficiency causes the remaining one-third of the increase in dust deposition. The moderate change in dust deposition in Antarctica in the last glacial inception period is caused by the slightly stronger poleward atmospheric transport efficiency compared to the pre-industrial. Maximum dust deposition in Antarctica was simulated for the glacial period. LGM dust deposition in Antarctica is substantially increased due to 2.6 times higher Southern Hemisphere dust emissions, 2 times stronger atmospheric transport towards Antarctica, and 30% weaker precipitation over the Southern Ocean. The model is able to reproduce the order of magnitude of dust deposition globally and in Antarctica for the pre-industrial and LGM climates.« less

Modelling climate change effects on Atlantic salmon: Implications for mitigation in regulated rivers.

PubMed

Sundt-Hansen, L E; Hedger, R D; Ugedal, O; Diserud, O H; Finstad, A G; Sauterleute, J F; Tøfte, L; Alfredsen, K; Forseth, T

2018-08-01

Climate change is expected to alter future temperature and discharge regimes of rivers. These regimes have a strong influence on the life history of most aquatic river species, and are key variables controlling the growth and survival of Atlantic salmon. This study explores how the future abundance of Atlantic salmon may be influenced by climate-induced changes in water temperature and discharge in a regulated river, and investigates how negative impacts in the future can be mitigated by applying different regulated discharge regimes during critical periods for salmon survival. A spatially explicit individual-based model was used to predict juvenile Atlantic salmon population abundance in a regulated river under a range of future water temperature and discharge scenarios (derived from climate data predicted by the Hadley Centre's Global Climate Model (GCM) HadAm3H and the Max Plank Institute's GCM ECHAM4), which were then compared with populations predicted under control scenarios representing past conditions. Parr abundance decreased in all future scenarios compared to the control scenarios due to reduced wetted areas (with the effect depending on climate scenario, GCM, and GCM spatial domain). To examine the potential for mitigation of climate change-induced reductions in wetted area, simulations were run with specific minimum discharge regimes. An increase in abundance of both parr and smolt occurred with an increase in the limit of minimum permitted discharge for three of the four GCM/GCM spatial domains examined. This study shows that, in regulated rivers with upstream storage capacity, negative effects of climate change on Atlantic salmon populations can potentially be mitigated by release of water from reservoirs during critical periods for juvenile salmon. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Can we trust climate models to realistically represent severe European windstorms?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trzeciak, Tomasz M.; Knippertz, Peter; Pirret, Jennifer S. R.; Williams, Keith D.

2016-06-01

Cyclonic windstorms are one of the most important natural hazards for Europe, but robust climate projections of the position and the strength of the North Atlantic storm track are not yet possible, bearing significant risks to European societies and the (re)insurance industry. Previous studies addressing the problem of climate model uncertainty through statistical comparisons of simulations of the current climate with (re-)analysis data show large disagreement between different climate models, different ensemble members of the same model and observed climatologies of intense cyclones. One weakness of such evaluations lies in the difficulty to separate influences of the climate model's basic state from the influence of fast processes on the development of the most intense storms, which could create compensating effects and therefore suggest higher reliability than there really is. This work aims to shed new light into this problem through a cost-effective "seamless" approach of hindcasting 20 historical severe storms with the two global climate models, ECHAM6 and GA4 configuration of the Met Office Unified Model, run in a numerical weather prediction mode using different lead times, and horizontal and vertical resolutions. These runs are then compared to re-analysis data. The main conclusions from this work are: (a) objectively identified cyclone tracks are represented satisfactorily by most hindcasts; (b) sensitivity to vertical resolution is low; (c) cyclone depth is systematically under-predicted for a coarse resolution of T63 by both climate models; (d) no systematic bias is found for the higher resolution of T127 out to about three days, demonstrating that climate models are in fact able to represent the complex dynamics of explosively deepening cyclones well, if given the correct initial conditions; (e) an analysis using a recently developed diagnostic tool based on the surface pressure tendency equation points to too weak diabatic processes, mainly latent heating, as the main source for the under-prediction in the coarse-resolution runs. Finally, an interesting implication of these results is that the too low number of deep cyclones in many free-running climate simulations may therefore be related to an insufficient number of storm-prone initial conditions. This question will be addressed in future work.

Multi-millennia simulation of Greenland deglaciation from the Max-Plank-Institute Model (MPI-ISM) 2xCO2 simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cabot, Vincent; Vizcaino, Miren; Mikolajewicz, Uwe

2016-04-01

Long-term ice sheet and climate coupled simulations are of great interest since they assess how the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) will respond to global warming and how GrIS changes will impact on the climate system. We have run the Max-Plank-Institute Earth System Model coupled with an Ice Sheet Model (SICOPOLIS) over a time period of 10500 years under two times CO2 forcing. This is a coupled atmosphere (ECHAM5T31), ocean (MPI-OM), dynamic vegetation (LPJ), and ice sheet (SICOPOLIS, 10 km horizontal resolution) model. Given the multi-millennia simulation, the horizontal spatial resolution of the atmospheric component is relatively coarse (3.75°). A time-saving technique (asynchronous coupling) is used once the global climate reaches quasi-equilibrium. In our doubling-CO2 simulation, the GrIS is expected to break up into two pieces (one ice cap in the far north on one ice sheet in the south and east) after 3000 years. During the first 500 simulation years, the GrIS climate and surface mass balance (SMB) are mainly affected by the greenhouse effect-forced climate change. After the simulated year 500, the global climate reaches quasi-equilibrium. Henceforth Greenland climate change is mainly due to ice sheet decay. GrIS albedo reduction enhances melt and acts as a powerful feedback for deglaciation. Due to increased cloudiness in the Arctic region as a result of global climate change, summer incoming shortwave radiation is substantially reduced over Greenland, reducing deglaciation rates. At the end of the simulation, Greenland becomes green with forest growing over the newly deglaciated regions. References: Helsen, M. M., van de Berg, W. J., van de Wal, R. S. W., van den Broeke, M. R., and Oerlemans, J. (2013), Coupled regional climate-ice-sheet simulation shows limited Greenland ice loss during the Eemian, Climate of the Past, 9, 1773-1788, doi: 10.5194/cp-9-1773-2013 Helsen, M. M., van de Wal, R. S. W., van den Broeke, M. R., van de Berg, W. J., and Oerlemans, J. (2015), Coupling of climate models and ice sheet models by the surface mass balance gradients: application to the Greenland Ice Sheet, The Cryosphere, 6, 255-272, doi: 10.5194/tc-6-255-2012 Robinson, A., Calov, R., and Ganopolski, A. (2011), Greenland ice sheet model parameters constrained using simulations of the Eemian Interglacial, Climate of the Past, 7, 381-396, doi: 10.5194/cp-7-381-2011 Vizcaino, M., Mikolajewicz, U., Ziemen, F., Rodehacke, C. B., Greve, R., and van den Broeke, M. R. (2015), Coupled simulations of Greenland Ice Sheet and climate change up to A.D. 2300, Geophysical Research Letters, 42, doi: 10.1002/2014GL061142

A satellite simulator for TRMM PR applied to climate model simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spangehl, T.; Schroeder, M.; Bodas-Salcedo, A.; Hollmann, R.; Riley Dellaripa, E. M.; Schumacher, C.

2017-12-01

Climate model simulations have to be compared against observation based datasets in order to assess their skill in representing precipitation characteristics. Here we use a satellite simulator for TRMM PR in order to evaluate simulations performed with MPI-ESM (Earth system model of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg, Germany) performed within the MiKlip project (https://www.fona-miklip.de/, funded by Federal Ministry of Education and Research in Germany). While classical evaluation methods focus on geophysical parameters such as precipitation amounts, the application of the satellite simulator enables an evaluation in the instrument's parameter space thereby reducing uncertainties on the reference side. The CFMIP Observation Simulator Package (COSP) provides a framework for the application of satellite simulators to climate model simulations. The approach requires the introduction of sub-grid cloud and precipitation variability. Radar reflectivities are obtained by applying Mie theory, with the microphysical assumptions being chosen to match the atmosphere component of MPI-ESM (ECHAM6). The results are found to be sensitive to the methods used to distribute the convective precipitation over the sub-grid boxes. Simple parameterization methods are used to introduce sub-grid variability of convective clouds and precipitation. In order to constrain uncertainties a comprehensive comparison with sub-grid scale convective precipitation variability which is deduced from TRMM PR observations is carried out.

A new radiation infrastructure for the Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy, based on version 2.51)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dietmüller, Simone; Jöckel, Patrick; Tost, Holger; Kunze, Markus; Gellhorn, Catrin; Brinkop, Sabine; Frömming, Christine; Ponater, Michael; Steil, Benedikt; Lauer, Axel; Hendricks, Johannes

2016-06-01

The Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy) provides an interface to couple submodels to a base model via a highly flexible data management facility (Jöckel et al., 2010). In the present paper we present the four new radiation related submodels RAD, AEROPT, CLOUDOPT, and ORBIT. The submodel RAD (including the shortwave radiation scheme RAD_FUBRAD) simulates the radiative transfer, the submodel AEROPT calculates the aerosol optical properties, the submodel CLOUDOPT calculates the cloud optical properties, and the submodel ORBIT is responsible for Earth orbit calculations. These submodels are coupled via the standard MESSy infrastructure and are largely based on the original radiation scheme of the general circulation model ECHAM5, however, expanded with additional features. These features comprise, among others, user-friendly and flexibly controllable (by namelists) online radiative forcing calculations by multiple diagnostic calls of the radiation routines. With this, it is now possible to calculate radiative forcing (instantaneous as well as stratosphere adjusted) of various greenhouse gases simultaneously in only one simulation, as well as the radiative forcing of cloud perturbations. Examples of online radiative forcing calculations in the ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) model are presented.

The effects of global change upon United States air quality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gonzalez-Abraham, R.; Avise, J.; Chung, S. H.; Lamb, B.; Salathé, E. P., Jr.; Nolte, C. G.; Loughlin, D.; Guenther, A.; Wiedinmyer, C.; Duhl, T.; Zhang, Y.; Streets, D. G.

2014-12-01

To understand more fully the effects of global changes on ambient concentrations of ozone and particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter smaller than 2.5 μm (PM2.5) in the US, we conducted a comprehensive modeling effort to evaluate explicitly the effects of changes in climate, biogenic emissions, land use, and global/regional anthropogenic emissions on ozone and PM2.5 concentrations and composition. Results from the ECHAM5 global climate model driven with the A1B emission scenario from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) were downscaled using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to provide regional meteorological fields. We developed air quality simulations using the Community Multiscale Air Quality Model (CMAQ) chemical transport model for two nested domains with 220 and 36 km horizontal grid cell resolution for a semi-hemispheric domain and a continental United States (US) domain, respectively. The semi-hemispheric domain was used to evaluate the impact of projected Asian emissions changes on US air quality. WRF meteorological fields were used to calculate current (2000s) and future (2050s) biogenic emissions using the Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature (MEGAN). For the semi-hemispheric domain CMAQ simulations, present-day global emissions inventories were used and projected to the 2050s based on the IPCC A1B scenario. Regional anthropogenic emissions were obtained from the US Environmental Protection Agency National Emission Inventory 2002 (EPA NEI2002) and projected to the future using the MARKet ALlocation (MARKAL) energy system model assuming a business as usual scenario that extends current decade emission regulations through 2050. Our results suggest that daily maximum 8 h average ozone (DM8O) concentrations will increase in a range between 2 to 12 ppb across most of the continental US, with the highest increase in the South, Central, and Midwest regions of the US, due to increases in temperature, enhanced biogenic emissions, and changes in land use. The effects of these factors are only partially offset by reductions in DM8O associated with decreasing US anthropogenic emissions. Increases in PM2.5 levels between 2 and 4 μg m-3 in the Northeast, Southeast, and South regions are mostly a result of enhanced biogenic emissions and land use changes. Little change in PM2.5 in the Central, Northwest, and Southwest regions was found, even when PM precursors are reduced with regulatory curtailment. Changes in temperature, relative humidity, and boundary conditions shift the composition but do not alter overall PM2.5 mass concentrations.

Tropospheric Distribution of Trace Species during the Oxidation Mechanism Observations (OMO-2015) campaign: Model Evaluation and sensitivity simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ojha, Narendra; Pozzer, Andrea; Jöckel, Patrick; Fischer, Horst; Zahn, Andreas; Tomsche, Laura; Lelieveld, Jos

2017-04-01

The Asian monsoon convection redistributes trace species, affecting the tropospheric chemistry and radiation budget over Asia and downwind as far as the Mediterranean. It remains challenging to model these impacts due to uncertainties, e.g. associated with the convection parameterization and input emissions. Here, we perform a series of numerical experiments using the global ECHAM5/MESSy atmospheric chemistry model (EMAC) to investigate the tropospheric distribution of O3 and related tracers measured during the Oxidation Mechanism Observations (OMO) conducted during July-August 2015. The reference simulation can reproduce the spatio-temporal variations to some extent (e.g. r2 = 0.7 for O3, 0.6 for CO). However, this simulation underestimates mean CO in the lower troposphere by about 30 ppbv and overestimates mean O3 up to 35 ppbv, especially in the middle-upper troposphere. Interestingly, sensitivity simulations with 50% higher biofuel emissions of CO over South Asia had insignificant effect on CO underestimation, pointing to sources upwind of South Asia. Use of an alternative convection parameterization is found to significantly improve simulated O3. The study reveals the abilities as well as the limitations of the model to reproduce observations and study atmospheric chemistry and climate implications of the monsoon.

Estimates of late Cenozoic climate change relevant to Earth surface processes in tectonically active orogens

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mutz, Sebastian G.; Ehlers, Todd A.; Werner, Martin; Lohmann, Gerrit; Stepanek, Christian; Li, Jingmin

2018-04-01

The denudation history of active orogens is often interpreted in the context of modern climate gradients. Here we address the validity of this approach and ask what are the spatial and temporal variations in palaeoclimate for a latitudinally diverse range of active orogens? We do this using high-resolution (T159, ca. 80 × 80 km at the Equator) palaeoclimate simulations from the ECHAM5 global atmospheric general circulation model and a statistical cluster analysis of climate over different orogens (Andes, Himalayas, SE Alaska, Pacific NW USA). Time periods and boundary conditions considered include the Pliocene (PLIO, ˜ 3 Ma), the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ˜ 21 ka), mid-Holocene (MH, ˜ 6 ka), and pre-industrial (PI, reference year 1850). The regional simulated climates of each orogen are described by means of cluster analyses based on the variability in precipitation, 2 m air temperature, the intra-annual amplitude of these values, and monsoonal wind speeds where appropriate. Results indicate the largest differences in the PI climate existed for the LGM and PLIO climates in the form of widespread cooling and reduced precipitation in the LGM and warming and enhanced precipitation during the PLIO. The LGM climate shows the largest deviation in annual precipitation from the PI climate and shows enhanced precipitation in the temperate Andes and coastal regions for both SE Alaska and the US Pacific Northwest. Furthermore, LGM precipitation is reduced in the western Himalayas and enhanced in the eastern Himalayas, resulting in a shift of the wettest regional climates eastward along the orogen. The cluster-analysis results also suggest more climatic variability across latitudes east of the Andes in the PLIO climate than in other time slice experiments conducted here. Taken together, these results highlight significant changes in late Cenozoic regional climatology over the last ˜ 3 Myr. Comparison of simulated climate with proxy-based reconstructions for the MH and LGM reveal satisfactory to good performance of the model in reproducing precipitation changes, although in some cases discrepancies between neighbouring proxy observations highlight contradictions between proxy observations themselves. Finally, we document regions where the largest magnitudes of late Cenozoic changes in precipitation and temperature occur and offer the highest potential for future observational studies that quantify the impact of climate change on denudation and weathering rates.

Assessment of impacts of climate change on surface water availability using coupled SWAT and WEAP models: case of upper Pangani River Basin, Tanzania

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kishiwa, Peter; Nobert, Joel; Kongo, Victor; Ndomba, Preksedis

2018-05-01

This study was designed to investigate the dynamics of current and future surface water availability for different water users in the upper Pangani River Basin under changing climate. A multi-tier modeling technique was used in the study, by coupling the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and Water Evaluation And Planning (WEAP) models, to simulate streamflows under climate change and assess scenarios of future water availability to different socio-economic activities by year 2060. Six common Global Circulation Models (GCMs) from WCRP-CMIP3 with emissions Scenario A2 were selected. These are HadCM3, HadGEM1, ECHAM5, MIROC3.2MED, GFDLCM2.1 and CSIROMK3. They were downscaled by using LARS-WG to station scale. The SWAT model was calibrated with observed data and utilized the LARS-WG outputs to generate future streamflows before being used as input to WEAP model to assess future water availability to different socio-economic activities. GCMs results show future rainfall increase in upper Pangani River Basin between 16-18 % in 2050s relative to 1980-1999 periods. Temperature is projected to increase by an average of 2 °C in 2050s, relative to baseline period. Long-term mean streamflows is expected to increase by approximately 10 %. However, future peak flows are estimated to be lower than the prevailing average peak flows. Nevertheless, the overall annual water demand in Pangani basin will increase from 1879.73 Mm3 at present (2011) to 3249.69 Mm3 in the future (2060s), resulting to unmet demand of 1673.8 Mm3 (51.5 %). The impact of future shortage will be more severe in irrigation where 71.12 % of its future demand will be unmet. Future water demands of Hydropower and Livestock will be unmet by 27.47 and 1.41 % respectively. However, future domestic water use will have no shortage. This calls for planning of current and future surface water use in the upper Pangani River Basin.

Global radiative adjustment after a collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Drijfhout, Sybren S.

2015-10-01

The transient climate response to a collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is analysed from the difference between two ensembles of climate model simulations with ECHAM5/MPI-OM, one with hosing and the other without hosing. The primary effect of the collapse is to redistribute heat over the two hemispheres. However, Northern Hemisphere sea ice increase in response to the AMOC collapse induces a hemisphere-wide cooling, amplified by atmospheric feedbacks, in particular water vapour. The Southern Hemisphere warming is governed by slower processes. After 25 years the global cooling peaks. Thereafter, the response is characterised by a gradual readjustment of global mean temperature. During the AMOC collapse a downward radiation anomaly arises at the top of the atmosphere (TOA), heating the earth's surface. The net downward radiation anomaly at TOA arises from reduced longwave emission by the atmosphere, overcompensating the increased net upward anomalies in shortwave and longwave radiation at the surface. This radiation anomaly is associated with net ocean heat uptake: cooling of the overlying atmosphere results from reduced ocean heat release through the increase of sea-ice cover in the North Atlantic. The change in energy flow arises from the reduction in latent and sensible heat flux, which dominate the surface radiation budget. Similar experiments with a climate model of intermediate complexity reveal a stronger shortwave response that acts to reduce the net downward radiation anomaly at TOA. The net shortwave and longwave radiation anomalies at TOA always decrease during the first 100 years after the AMOC collapse, but in the intermediate complexity model this is associated with a sign change after 90 years when the net radiation anomaly at TOA becomes upward, accompanied by net ocean heat loss. After several hundred years the longwave and shortwave anomalies increase again, while the net residual at TOA remains small. This radiative adjustment is associated with the transition to a colder climate.

Summer Rains and Dry Seasons in the Upper Blue Nile Basin: The Predictability of Half a Century of Past and Future Spatiotemporal Patterns

PubMed Central

Mellander, Per-Erik; Gebrehiwot, Solomon G.; Gärdenäs, Annemieke I.; Bewket, Woldeamlak; Bishop, Kevin

2013-01-01

During the last 100 years the Ethiopian upper Blue Nile Basin (BNB) has undergone major changes in land use, and is now potentially facing changes in climate. Rainfall over BNB supplies over two-thirds of the water to the Nile and supports a large local population living mainly on subsistence agriculture. Regional food security is sensitive to both the amount and timing of rain and is already an important political challenge that will be further complicated if scenarios of climate change are realized. In this study a simple spatial model of the timing and duration of summer rains (Kiremt) and dry season (Bega), and annual rain over the upper BNB was established from observed data between 1952 and 2004. The model was used to explore potential impacts of climate change on these rains, using a down-scaled ECHAM5/MP1-OM scenario between 2050 and 2100. Over the observed period the amount, onset and duration of Kiremt rains and rain-free Bega days have exhibited a consistent spatial pattern. The spatially averaged annual rainfall was 1490 mm of which 93% was Kiremt rain. The average Kiremt rain and number of rainy days was higher in the southwest (322 days) and decreased towards the north (136 days). Under the 2050–2100 scenario, the annual mean rainfall is predicted to increase by 6% and maintain the same spatial pattern as in the past. A larger change in annual rainfall is expected in the southwest (ca. +130 mm) with a gradually smaller change towards the north (ca. +70 mm). Results highlight the need to account for the characteristic spatiotemporal zonation when planning water management and climate adaptation within the upper BNB. The presented simple spatial resolved models of the presence of Kiremt and annual total rainfall could be used as a baseline for such long-term planning. PMID:23869219

Effects of land-use and climate on Holocene vegetation composition in northern Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marquer, Laurent; Gaillard, Marie-José; Sugita, Shinya; Poska, Anneli; Trondman, Anna-Kari; Mazier, Florence; Nielsen, Anne Birgitte; Fyfe, Ralph; Jönsson, Anna Maria

2016-04-01

Prior to the advent of agriculture, broad-scale vegetation patterns in Europe were controlled primarily by climate. Early agriculture can be detected in palaeovegetation records, but the relative extent to which past regional vegetation was climatically or anthropogenically-forced is of current scientific interest. Using comparisons of transformed pollen data, climate-model data, dynamic vegetation model simulations and anthropogenic land-cover change data, this study aims to estimate the relative impacts of human activities and climate on the Holocene vegetation composition of northern Europe at a subcontinental scale. The REVEALS model was used for pollen-based quantitative reconstruction of vegetation (RV). Climate variables from ECHAM and the extent of human deforestation from KK10 were used as explanatory variables to evaluate their respective impacts on RV. Indices of vegetation-composition changes based on RV and climate-induced vegetation simulated by the LPJ-GUESS model (LPJG) were used to assess the relative importance of climate and anthropogenic impacts. The results show that climate is the major predictor of Holocene vegetation changes until 5000 years ago. The similarity in rate of change and turnover between RV and LPJG decreases after this time. Changes in RV explained by climate and KK10 vary for the last 2000 years; the similarity in rate of change, turnover, and evenness between RV and LPJG decreases to the present. The main conclusions provide important insights on Neolithic forest clearances that affected regional vegetation from 6700 years ago, although climate (temperature and precipitation) still was a major driver of vegetation change (explains 37% of the variation) at the subcontinental scale. Land use became more important around 5000-4000 years ago, while the influence of climate decreased (explains 28% of the variation). Land-use affects all indices of vegetation compositional change during the last 2000 years; the influence of climate on vegetation, although reduced, remains at 16% until modern time while land-use explains 7%, which underlines that North-European vegetation is still climatically sensitive and, therefore, responds strongly to ongoing climate change.

Atmospheric winter response to Arctic sea ice changes in reanalysis data and model simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jaiser, Ralf; Nakamura, Tetsu; Handorf, Dörthe; Romanowsky, Erik; Dethloff, Klaus; Ukita, Jinro; Yamazaki, Koji

2017-04-01

In recent years, Arctic regions showcased the most pronounced signals of a changing climate: Sea ice is reduced by more the ten percent per decade. At the same time, global warming trends have their maximum in Arctic latitudes often labled Arctic Amplification. There is strong evidence that amplified Arctic changes feed back into mid-latitudes in winter. We identified mechanisms that link recent Arctic changes through vertically propagating planetary waves to events of a weakened stratospheric polar vortex. Related anomalies propagate downward and lead to negative AO-like situations in the troposphere. European winter climate is sensitive to negative AO situations in terms of cold air outbreaks that are likely to occur more often in that case. These results based on ERA-Interim reanalysis data do not allow to dismiss other potential forcing factors leading to observed mid-latitude climate changes. Nevertheless, properly designed Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) experiments with AFES and ECHAM6 are able to reproduce observed atmospheric circulation changes if only observed sea ice changes in the Arctic are prescribed. This allows to deduce mechanisms that explain how Arctic Amplification can lead to a negative AO response via a stratospheric pathway. Further investigation of these mechanisms may feed into improved prediction systems.

Statistical downscaling and future scenario generation of temperatures for Pakistan Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kazmi, Dildar Hussain; Li, Jianping; Rasul, Ghulam; Tong, Jiang; Ali, Gohar; Cheema, Sohail Babar; Liu, Luliu; Gemmer, Marco; Fischer, Thomas

2015-04-01

Finer climate change information on spatial scale is required for impact studies than that presently provided by global or regional climate models. It is especially true for regions like South Asia with complex topography, coastal or island locations, and the areas of highly heterogeneous land-cover. To deal with the situation, an inexpensive method (statistical downscaling) has been adopted. Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM) employed for downscaling of daily minimum and maximum temperature data of 44 national stations for base time (1961-1990) and then the future scenarios generated up to 2099. Observed as well as Predictors (product of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) data were calibrated and tested on individual/multiple basis through linear regression. Future scenario was generated based on HadCM3 daily data for A2 and B2 story lines. The downscaled data has been tested, and it has shown a relatively strong relationship with the observed in comparison to ECHAM5 data. Generally, the southern half of the country is considered vulnerable in terms of increasing temperatures, but the results of this study projects that in future, the northern belt in particular would have a possible threat of increasing tendency in air temperature. Especially, the northern areas (hosting the third largest ice reserves after the Polar Regions), an important feeding source for Indus River, are projected to be vulnerable in terms of increasing temperatures. Consequently, not only the hydro-agricultural sector but also the environmental conditions in the area may be at risk, in future.

10Be in ice at high resolution: Solar activity and climate signals observed and GCM-modeled in Law Dome ice cores

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pedro, Joel; Heikkilä, Ulla; van Ommen, T. D.; Smith, A. M.

2010-05-01

Changes in solar activity modulate the galactic cosmic ray flux, and in turn, the production rate of 10Be in the earth's atmosphere. The best archives of past changes in 10Be production rate are the polar ice cores. Key challenges in interpreting these archives as proxies for past solar activity lie in separating the useful solar activity (or production) signal from the interfering meteorological (or climate) signal, and furthermore, in determining the atmospheric source regions of 10Be deposited to the ice core site. In this study we use a new monthly resolution composite 10Be record, which spans the past decade, and a general circulation model (ECHAM5-HAM), to constrain both the production and climate signals in 10Be concentrations at the Law Dome ice core site, East Antarctica. This study differs from most previous work on 10Be in Antarctica due to the very high sample resolution achieved. This high resolution, through a time period where accurate instrumental measurements of solar activity and climate are available, allows us to examine the response of 10Be concentrations in ice to short-term (monthly to annual) variations in solar activity, and to short-term variations in climate, including seasonality. We find a significant correlation (r2 = 0.56, P < 0.005, n = 92) between observed 10Be concentrations and solar activity (represented by the neutron counting rate). The most pervasive climate influence is a seasonal cycle, which shows maximum concentrations in mid-to-late-summer and minimum concentrations in winter. Model results show reasonable agreement with observations; both a solar activity signal and seasonal cycle in 10Be are captured. However, the modeled snow accumulation rate is too high by approximately 60%. According to the model, the main atmospheric source region of 10Be deposited to Law Dome is the 30-90°S stratosphere (~50%), followed by the 30-90°S troposphere (~30%). An enhancement in the fraction of 10Be arriving to Law Dome from the stratosphere is found by the model during the mid-to-late summer, we suggest this pattern is implicated in the seasonality of observed 10Be concentrations in ice. Our results have implications for interpretation of longer term records of 10Be from ice cores. Firstly, the strong production signal supports the use of 10Be as a solar proxy. Secondly, the short term climate processes operating here, may provide clues to how longer term shifts in climate impact on ice core 10Be.

Impacts of climate change on river discharge in the northern Tien Shan: Results from the long-term observations and modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shahgedanova, Maria; Afzal, Muhammad; Usmanova, Zamira; Kapitsa, Vasilii; Mayr, Elisabeth; Hagg, Wilfried; Severskiy, Igor; Zhumabayev, Dauren

2017-04-01

The study presents results of investigation of the observed and projected changes in discharge of seven snow- and glacier-nourished rivers of the northern Tien Shan (south-eastern Kazakhstan). The observed trends were assessed using the long-term (40-60 years) homogeneous daily records of discharge from the gauging stations located in the mountains and unaffected by human activities including water abstraction. Positive trends in discharge were registered at most sites between the 1950s and 2010s with the strongest increase in summer and autumn particularly in 2000-2010s in line with the positive temperature trends. The observed increase was most prominent in the catchments with a higher proportion of glacierized area. At the Ulken Almatinka and Kishi Almatinka rivers, where 16% and 12% of the catchment areas are glacierized, positive trends in summer and autumn discharge exceeded 1% per year. The strongest increase was observed in September indicating that melting period extends in the early autumn. In September-November, the number of days with extreme discharge values, defined as daily values exceeding 95th percentile (calculated for each meteorological season), increased at all rivers. Future changes in discharge were modelled using HBV-ETH hydrological model and four climate change scenarios derived using regional climate model PRECIS with 25 km spatial resolution driven by HadGEM GCM for RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 scenarios and HadCM3Q0 and ECHAM5 GCM for A1B scenario. A range of glacier change scenarios was considered. All climate experiments project increase in temperature with the strongest warming projected by the HadGEM-driven simulation for RCP 8.5 scenario and HadCM3Q0-driven simulation for A1B scenario. The projected changes in precipitation varied between models and seasons, however, most experiments did not show significant trends in precipitation within the studied catchments. The exception is a simulation driven by HadGEM GCM for 8.5 RCP scenario which projects summer drying. All simulations project that in the 2020s, discharge will remain close to its baseline (1990-2005) values suggesting that peak flow has been reached in the northern Tien Shan. Significant decrease in discharge is projected for the post 2030s period for June-September. The strongest changes are expected in July and August when discharge values are projected to decrease by 25-38% in 2030-2060 and decline further to up 50% of the baseline values in 2060-2099.

Impacts of deforestation and afforestation in the Mediterranean region as simulated by the MPI atmospheric GCM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dümenil Gates, Lydia; Ließ, Stefan

2001-10-01

For two reasons it is important to study the sensitivity of the global climate to changes in the vegetation cover over land. First, in the real world, changes in the vegetation cover may have regional and global implications. Second, in numerical simulations, the sensitivity of the simulated climate may depend on the specific parameterization schemes employed in the model and on the model's large-scale systematic errors. The Max-Planck-Institute's global general circulation model ECHAM4 has been used to study the sensitivity of the local and global climate during a full annual cycle to deforestation and afforestation in the Mediterranean region. The deforestation represents an extreme desertification scenario for this region. The changes in the afforestation experiment are based on the pattern of the vegetation cover 2000 years before present when the climate in the Mediterranean was more humid. The comparison of the deforestation integration to the control shows a slight cooling at the surface and reduced precipitation during the summer as a result of less evapotranspiration of plants and less evaporation from the assumption of eroded soils. There is no significant signal during the winter season due to the stronger influence of the mid-latitude baroclinic disturbances. In general, the results of the afforestation experiment are opposite to those of the deforestation case. A significant response was found in the vicinity of grid points where the land surface characteristics were modified. The response in the Sahara in the afforestation experiment is in agreement with the results from other general circulation model studies.

Megadroughts in Southwestern North America in ECHO-G Millennial Simulations and Their Comparison to Proxy Drought Reconstructions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Coats, Sloan; Smerdon, Jason E.; Seager, Richard; Cook, Benjamin I.; Gozalez-Rouco, J. F.

2013-01-01

Simulated hydroclimate variability in millennium-length forced transient and control simulations from the ECHAM and the global Hamburg Ocean Primitive Equation (ECHO-G) coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) is analyzed and compared to 1000 years of reconstructed Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) variability from the North American Drought Atlas (NADA). The ability of the model to simulate megadroughts in the North American southwest is evaluated. (NASW: 25deg42.5degN, 125deg-105degW). Megadroughts in the ECHO-G AOGCM are found to be similar in duration and magnitude to those estimated from the NADA. The droughts in the forced simulation are not, however, temporally synchronous with those in the paleoclimate record, nor are there significant differences between the drought features simulated in the forced and control runs. These results indicate that model-simulated megadroughts can result from internal variability of the modeled climate system rather than as a response to changes in exogenous forcings. Although the ECHO-G AOGCM is capable of simulating megadroughts through persistent La Nina-like conditions in the tropical Pacific, other mechanisms can produce similarly extreme NASW moisture anomalies in the model. In particular, the lack of low-frequency coherence between NASW soil moisture and simulated modes of climate variability like the El Nino-Southern Oscillation, Pacific decadal oscillation, and Atlantic multidecadal oscillation during identified drought periods suggests that stochastic atmospheric variability can contribute significantly to the occurrence of simulated megadroughts in the NASW. These findings indicate that either an expanded paradigm is needed to understand multidecadal hydroclimate variability in the NASW or AOGCMs may incorrectly simulate the strength and/or dynamics of the connection between NASW hydroclimate variability and the tropical Pacific.

The thermal environment of the human being on the global scale.

PubMed

Jendritzky, Gerd; Tinz, Birger

2009-11-11

The close relationship between human health, performance, well-being and the thermal environment is obvious. Nevertheless, most studies of climate and climate change impacts show amazing shortcomings in the assessment of the environment. Populations living in different climates have different susceptibilities, due to socio-economic reasons, and different customary behavioural adaptations. The global distribution of risks of hazardous thermal exposure has not been analysed before. To produce maps of the baseline and future bioclimate that allows a direct comparison of the differences in the vulnerability of populations to thermal stress across the world. The required climatological data fields are obtained from climate simulations with the global General Circulation Model ECHAM4 in T106-resolution. For the thermo-physiologically relevant assessment of these climate data a complete heat budget model of the human being, the 'Perceived Temperature' procedure has been applied which already comprises adaptation by clothing to a certain degree. Short-term physiological acclimatisation is considered via Health Related Assessment of the Thermal Environment. The global maps 1971-1980 (control run, assumed as baseline climate) show a pattern of thermal stress intensities as frequencies of heat. The heat load for people living in warm-humid climates is the highest. Climate change will lead to clear differences in health-related thermal stress between baseline climate and the future bioclimate 2041-2050 based on the 'business-as-usual' greenhouse gas scenario IS92a. The majority of the world's population will be faced with more frequent and more intense heat strain in spite of an assumed level of acclimatisation. Further adaptation measures are crucial in order to reduce the vulnerability of the populations. This bioclimatology analysis provides a tool for various questions in climate and climate change impact research. Considerations of regional or local scale require climate simulations with higher resolution. As adaptation is the key term in understanding the role of climate/climate change for human health, performance and well-being, further research in this field is crucial.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sudarchikova, Natalia; Mikolajewicz, Uwe; Timmreck, C.

The mineral dust cycle responds to climate variations and plays an important role in the climate system by affecting the radiative balance of the atmosphere and modifying biogeochemistry. Polar ice cores provide unique information about deposition of aeolian dust particles transported over long distances. These cores are a palaeoclimate proxy archive of climate variability thousands of years ago. The current study is a first attempt to simulate past interglacial dust cycles with a global aerosol–climate model ECHAM5-HAM. The results are used to explain the dust deposition changes in Antarctica in terms of quantitative contribution of different processes, such as emission,more » atmospheric transport and precipitation, which will help to interpret palaeodata from Antarctic ice cores. The investigated periods include four interglacial time slices: the pre-industrial control (CTRL), mid-Holocene (6000 yr BP; hereafter referred to as \\"6 kyr\\"), last glacial inception (115 000 yr BP; hereafter \\"115 kyr\\") and Eemian (126 000 yr BP; hereafter \\"126 kyr\\"). One glacial time interval, the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) (21 000 yr BP; hereafter \\"21 kyr\\"), was simulated as well to be a reference test for the model. Results suggest an increase in mineral dust deposition globally, and in Antarctica, in the past interglacial periods relative to the pre-industrial CTRL simulation. Approximately two-thirds of the increase in the mid-Holocene and Eemian is attributed to enhanced Southern Hemisphere dust emissions. Slightly strengthened transport efficiency causes the remaining one-third of the increase in dust deposition. The moderate change in dust deposition in Antarctica in the last glacial inception period is caused by the slightly stronger poleward atmospheric transport efficiency compared to the pre-industrial. Maximum dust deposition in Antarctica was simulated for the glacial period. LGM dust deposition in Antarctica is substantially increased due to 2.6 times higher Southern Hemisphere dust emissions, 2 times stronger atmospheric transport towards Antarctica, and 30% weaker precipitation over the Southern Ocean. The model is able to reproduce the order of magnitude of dust deposition globally and in Antarctica for the pre-industrial and LGM climates.« less

Regional projection of climate impact indices over the Mediterranean region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Casanueva, Ana; Frías, M.; Dolores; Herrera, Sixto; Bedia, Joaquín; San Martín, Daniel; Gutiérrez, José Manuel; Zaninovic, Ksenija

2014-05-01

Climate Impact Indices (CIIs) are being increasingly used in different socioeconomic sectors to transfer information about climate change impacts and risks to stakeholders. CIIs are typically based on different weather variables such as temperature, wind speed, precipitation or humidity and comprise, in a single index, the relevant meteorological information for the particular impact sector (in this study wildfires and tourism). This dependence on several climate variables poses important limitations to the application of statistical downscaling techniques, since physical consistency among variables is required in most cases to obtain reliable local projections. The present study assesses the suitability of the "direct" downscaling approach, in which the downscaling method is directly applied to the CII. In particular, for illustrative purposes, we consider two popular indices used in the wildfire and tourism sectors, the Fire Weather Index (FWI) and the Physiological Equivalent Temperature (PET), respectively. As an example, two case studies are analysed over two representative Mediterranean regions of interest for the EU CLIM-RUN project: continental Spain for the FWI and Croatia for the PET. Results obtained with this "direct" downscaling approach are similar to those found from the application of the statistical downscaling to the individual meteorological drivers prior to the index calculation ("component" downscaling) thus, a wider range of statistical downscaling methods could be used. As an illustration, future changes in both indices are projected by applying two direct statistical downscaling methods, analogs and linear regression, to the ECHAM5 model. Larger differences were found between the two direct statistical downscaling approaches than between the direct and the component approaches with a single downscaling method. While these examples focus on particular indices and Mediterranean regions of interest for CLIM-RUN stakeholders, the same study could be extended to other indices and regions.

Climate services for an urban area (Baia Mare City, Romania) with a focus on climate extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sima, Mihaela; Micu, Dana; Dragota, Carmen-Sofia; Mihalache, Sorin

2013-04-01

The Baia Mare Urban System is located in the north-western part of Romania, with around 200,000 inhabitants and represents one of the most important former mining areas in the country, whose socioeconomic profile and environmental conditions have greatly changed over the last 20 years during the transition and post-transition period. Currently the mining is closed in the area, but the historical legacy of this activity has implications in terms of economic growth, social and cultural developments and environmental quality. Baia Mare city lies in an extended depression, particularly sheltered by the mountain and hilly regions located in the north and respectively, in the south-south-eastern part of it, which explains the high frequency of calm conditions and low airstream channeling occurrences. This urban system has a typically moderate temperate-continental climate, subject to frequent westerly airflows (moist), which moderate the thermal regime (without depicting severe extremes, both positive and negative) and enhance the precipitation one (entailing a greater frequency of wet extremes). During the reference period (1971-2000), the climate change signal in the area is rather weak and not statistically significant. However, since the mid 1980s, the warming signal became more evident from the observational data (Baia Mare station), showing a higher frequency of dry spells and positive extremes. The modelling experiments covering the 2021-2050 time horizon using regional (RM5.1/HadRM3Q0/RCA3) and global (ARPEGE/HadCM3Q0/BCM/ECHAM5) circulation models carried out within the ECLISE FP7 project suggest an ongoing temperature rise, associated to an intensification of temperature and precipitation extremes. In this context, the aim of this study was to evaluate how the local authorities consider and include climate change in their activity, as well as in the development plans (e.g. territorial, economic and social development plans). Individual interviews have been undertaken with key institutions focusing on environmental, health and urban development issues. The survey was conducted in order to identify the local authorities' perception and needs on climate change information and the importance of climate services for the city and institution's activity. Generally, the results suggest that the selected institutions are poorly aware of the potential impacts of climate change and associated extremes in the area, but they showed a real interest for future climate estimations necessary to undertake reliable adaptation measures. At institutional level, do not exist specialized departments (job positions) to tackle or manage climate information and climate-related aspects, this not being a pressing or priority issue for the city. The climate services aspects are seen with interest mainly in supplying climate scenarios and models for a relatively short term (next 10 or 15 years), the climate information being in this way included in the local planning strategies.

Quantifying the effect of varying GHG's concentration in Regional Climate Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

López-Romero, Jose Maria; Jerez, Sonia; Palacios-Peña, Laura; José Gómez-Navarro, Juan; Jiménez-Guerrero, Pedro; Montavez, Juan Pedro

2017-04-01

Regional Climate Models (RCMs) are driven at the boundaries by Global Circulation Models (GCM), and in the particular case of Climate Change projections, such simulations are forced by varying greenhouse gases (GHGs) concentrations. In hindcast simulations driven by reanalysis products, the climate change signal is usually introduced in the assimilation process as well. An interesting question arising in this context is whether GHGs concentrations have to be varied within the RCMs model itself, or rather they should be kept constant. Some groups keep the GHGs concentrations constant under the assumption that information about climate change signal is given throughout the boundaries; sometimes certain radiation parameterization schemes do not permit such changes. Other approaches vary these concentrations arguing that this preserves the physical coherence respect to the driving conditions for the RCM. This work aims to shed light on this topic. For this task, various regional climate simulations with the WRF model for the 1954-2004 period have been carried out for using a Euro-CORDEX compliant domain. A series of simulations with constant and variable GHGs have been performed using both, a GCM (ECHAM6-OM) and a reanalysis product (ERA-20C) data. Results indicate that there exist noticeable differences when introducing varying GHGs concentrations within the RCM domain. The differences in 2-m temperature series between the experiments with varying or constant GHGs concentration strongly depend on the atmospheric conditions, appearing a strong interannual variability. This suggests that short-term experiments are not recommended if the aim is to assess the role of varying GHGs. In addition, and consistently in both GCM and reanalysis-driven experiments, the magnitude of temperature trends, as well as the spatial pattern represented by varying GHGs experiment, are closer to the driving dataset than in experiments keeping constant the GHGs concentration. These results point towards the need for the inclusion of varying GHGs concentration within the RCM itself when dynamically downscaling global datasets, both in GCM and hindcast simulations.

Climate and mortality changes due to reductions in household cooking emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bergman, Tommi; Mielonen, Tero; Arola, Antti; Kokkola, Harri

2016-04-01

Household cooking is a significant cause for health and environmental problems in the developing countries. There are more than 3 billion people who use biomass for fuel in cooking stoves in their daily life. These cooking stoves use inadequate ventilation and expose especially women and children to indoor smoke. To reduce problems of the biomass burning, India launched an initiative to provide affordable and clean energy solutions for the poorest households by providing clean next-generation cooking stoves. The improved cooking stoves are expected to improve outdoor air quality and to reduce the climate-active pollutants, thus simultaneously slowing the climate change. Previous research has shown that the emissions of black carbon can be decreased substantially, as much as 90 % by applying better technology in cooking stoves. We have implemented reasonable (50% decrease) and best case (90% decrease) scenarios of the reductions in black and organic carbon due to improved cooking stoves in India into ECHAM-HAMMOZ aerosol-climate model. The global simulations of the scenarios will be used to study how the reductions of emissions in India affect the pollutant concentrations and radiation. The simulated reductions in particulate concentrations will also be used to estimate the decrease in mortality rates. Furthermore, we will study how the emission reductions would affect the global climate and mortality if a similar initiative would be applied in other developing countries.

Effects of aerosol emission pathways on future warming and human health

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Partanen, Antti-Ilari; Matthews, Damon

2016-04-01

The peak global temperature is largely determined by cumulative emissions of long-lived greenhouse gases. However, anthropogenic emissions include also so-called short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs), which include aerosol particles and methane. Previous studies with simple models indicate that the timing of SLCF emission reductions has only a small effect on the rate of global warming and even less of an effect on global peak temperatures. However, these simple model analyses do not capture the spatial dynamics of aerosol-climate interactions, nor do they consider the additional effects of aerosol emissions on human health. There is therefore merit in assessing how the timing of aerosol emission reductions affects global temperature and premature mortality caused by elevated aerosol concentrations, using more comprehensive climate models. Here, we used an aerosol-climate model ECHAM-HAMMOZ to simulate the direct and indirect radiative forcing resulting from aerosol emissions. We simulated Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios, and we also designed idealized low and high aerosol emission pathways based on RCP4.5 scenario (LOW and HIGH, respectively). From these simulations, we calculated the Effective Radiative Forcing (ERF) from aerosol emissions between 1850 and 2100, as well as aerosol concentrations used to estimate the premature mortality caused by particulate pollution. We then use the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model to simulate the spatial and temporal pattern of climate response to these aerosol-forcing scenarios, in combination with prescribed emissions of both short and long-lived greenhouse gases according to the RCP4.5 scenario. In the RCP scenarios, global mean ERF declined during the 21st century from -1.3 W m-2 to -0.4 W m-2 (RCP8.5) and -0.2 W m-2 (RCP2.6). In the sensitivity scenarios, the forcing at the end of the 21st century was -1.6 W m-2 (HIGH) and practically zero (LOW). The difference in global mean temperature at the year 2100 between LOW and HIGH was about 0.4 °C. The effect was even more significant on the global mean warming rate that reached 0.4 °C per decade in LOW and only 0.2 °C per decade in HIGH. The global temperature and warming rate were similar to each other in simulations using the aerosol emissions from standard RCP scenarios. Anthropogenic aerosols caused significant premature mortality during the 21st century. In 2005, they caused 1.5 million deaths annually. The annual death rate dropped to 0.13 million per year in LOW and was 0.9 million per year in HIGH by 2100. Total premature mortality caused by anthropogenic aerosol particles between 2005 and 2100 was 27 million in LOW, 52-68 million in RCPs, and 113 million in HIGH. Our results show that both climate and health effects of aerosols are fairly similar across RCP scenarios. However, RCPs share assumptions on effective air-quality policies. Our scenarios LOW and HIGH demonstrate that if strong aerosol policies are not enforced or even more ambitious cuts in aerosol emissions are made, the aerosol impacts on climate and health can differ significantly between scenarios.

Scenarios of the spatiotemporal variability of precipitation for West Africa on the continental to local scale including ghg forcing and land use change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krüger, A.; Born, K.; Brücher, T.; Fink, A.; Ludwig, P.; Paeth, H.; Kerschgens, M.

2009-04-01

In the present study the influence of SST variability and land use change on the spatiotemporal rainfall variability in West Africa is investigated. The research is embedded in multidisciplinary Project IMPETUS (An integrated approach to the efficient management of scarce water resources in West Africa), which develops various decision support systems for local stakeholders to mitigate the impacts of the ongoing and projected climate change. There is increasing evidence that in some regions, particularly in the tropics, land use changes may play an equally or even more important role in future climate change compared with enhanced greenhouse conditions. Particularly, tropical Africa appears to be a paradigm for the prominent link between land surface conditions and changes in the hydrological cycle and energy budget. Recently, complex scenarios of future land cover changes are elaborated and combined with radiative forcing according to the IPCC scenarios A1B and B1. Based on these more realistic scenarios, ensemble simulations with the regional climate model REMO are carried out, nested in global ECHAM5 simulations between 1960 and 2050 (IMPETUS model chain). The results reveal some remarkable changes in near-surface climate. In a broad band between the Guinean coast and 15°N as well as in the Congo basin annual precipitation is decreasing by 100 to 500 mm until the middle of the 21st century. At the same time, near-surface temperature increases by 2 to 5 K. The warming rate is much more pronounced in tropical Africa than in northern Africa and southern Europe, where greenhouse-gas concentrations are equally rising, and basically reflects the pattern of enhanced land degradation. The large-scale monsoon circulation and the occurrence of extreme events are affected as well. Differences between the A1B and B1 ensembles are small. By means of the high resolution models of the IMPETUS model chain (LM and FOOT3DK) the effect of interactions between the Earth's surface and the atmosphere on fresh water availability is investigated on the local scale (the river catchment of the upper Ouémé in Benin). It is planned to use model rainfall simulations to construct a generator for future rainy seasons with a statistical-dynamical regionalisation approach for the regarded area. For this purposes simulations with the non-hydrostatic mesoscale meteorological model FOOT3DK are conducted. First, on basis of the 3-D modelling several sensitivity studies for a certain episode of 54 hours were executed, which hint at a substantial risk of precipitation decrease in case of unfavourable land surface change i.e. the reduction of vegetation cover and/or decreasing of initial soil moisture. In a further step accumulated precipitation for the rainy season 2002 for the HVO (Haute Vallée de l'Ouémé) was estimated with a satellite based approach for the detection of rainfall generating cloud systems (cf. Fink et al., 2006) in combination with episode simulations of FOOT3DK. The simulations with LM for 2002 are forced with analysis-data provided by the German Weather Service. The LM data serves as the input for FOOT3DK. The latter model is used for a double nesting procedure with horizontal resolutions of 9 km and 3 km. Land use is provided from other IMPETUS working groups and is mainly assessed on basis of Landsat and GLCC data. A comparison of observations and simulations leads to satisfactory results. Finally, the entire model chain (ECHAM5-REMO-LM-FOOT3DK) is used to calculate scenario simulations with respect to the regarded IPCC scenarios. Simulations with LM are undertaken for the year 2025. Again episodes of 54 to 72 hours are calculated with FOOT3DK and an IMPETUS generated projection for the land use of 2025 to overcome the limited calculating capacity. The forty chosen dry and wet episodes shall enable the estimation of future rainy seasons (rainy season generator) by assigning them to meteorological parameters derived from REMO output.

Future aerosol concentrations in Europe: Effects of changing meteorology and emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coleman, Liz; Martin, Damien; Radalescu, Razvan; O'Dowd, Colin

2013-05-01

The ambient particulate matter concentrations are assessed using annual simulations for model validation period 2006, and for future time-slice years 2030, 2050 and 2100 under RCP scenario 6.0. Meteorological initial and boundary conditions are procured from ECHAM5-HAMMOC global simulations. The contribution of natural and anthropogenic processes to aerosol concentrations are assessed with particular emphasis on accumulation mode sea salt, organic enrichment thereof and future levels of secondary organic aerosol from isoprene.

Climate change effects on Chikungunya transmission in Europe: geospatial analysis of vector's climatic suitability and virus' temperature requirements.

PubMed

Fischer, Dominik; Thomas, Stephanie M; Suk, Jonathan E; Sudre, Bertrand; Hess, Andrea; Tjaden, Nils B; Beierkuhnlein, Carl; Semenza, Jan C

2013-11-12

Chikungunya was, from the European perspective, considered to be a travel-related tropical mosquito-borne disease prior to the first European outbreak in Northern Italy in 2007. This was followed by cases of autochthonous transmission reported in South-eastern France in 2010. Both events occurred after the introduction, establishment and expansion of the Chikungunya-competent and highly invasive disease vector Aedes albopictus (Asian tiger mosquito) in Europe. In order to assess whether these outbreaks are indicative of the beginning of a trend or one-off events, there is a need to further examine the factors driving the potential transmission of Chikungunya in Europe. The climatic suitability, both now and in the future, is an essential starting point for such an analysis. The climatic suitability for Chikungunya outbreaks was determined by using bioclimatic factors that influence, both vector and, pathogen. Climatic suitability for the European distribution of the vector Aedes albopictus was based upon previous correlative environmental niche models. Climatic risk classes were derived by combining climatic suitability for the vector with known temperature requirements for pathogen transmission, obtained from outbreak regions. In addition, the longest potential intra-annual season for Chikungunya transmission was estimated for regions with expected vector occurrences.In order to analyse spatio-temporal trends for risk exposure and season of transmission in Europe, climate change impacts are projected for three time-frames (2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100) and two climate scenarios (A1B and B1) from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). These climatic projections are based on regional climate model COSMO-CLM, which builds on the global model ECHAM5. European areas with current and future climatic suitability of Chikungunya transmission are identified. An increase in risk is projected for Western Europe (e.g. France and Benelux-States) in the first half of the 21st century and from mid-century onwards for central parts of Europe (e.g. Germany). Interestingly, the southernmost parts of Europe do not generally provide suitable conditions in these projections. Nevertheless, many Mediterranean regions will persist to be climatically suitable for transmission. Overall, the highest risk of transmission by the end of the 21st century was projected for France, Northern Italy and the Pannonian Basin (East-Central Europe). This general tendency is depicted in both, the A1B and B1 climate change scenarios. In order to guide preparedness for further outbreaks, it is crucial to anticipate risk as to identify areas where specific public health measures, such as surveillance and vector control, can be implemented. However, public health practitioners need to be aware that climate is only one factor driving the transmission of vector-borne disease.

Estimating Rates of Permafrost Degradation and their Impact on Ecosystems across Alaska and Northwest Canada using the Process-based Permafrost Dynamics Model GIPL as a Component of the Integrated Ecosystem Model (IEM)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marchenko, S. S.; Genet, H.; Euskirchen, E. S.; Breen, A. L.; McGuire, A. D.; Rupp, S. T.; Romanovsky, V. E.; Bolton, W. R.; Walsh, J. E.

2016-12-01

The impact of climate warming on permafrost and the potential of climate feedbacks resulting from permafrost thawing have recently received a great deal of attention. Permafrost temperature has increased in most locations in the Arctic and Sub-Arctic during the past 30-40 years. The typical increase in permafrost temperature is 1-3°C. The process-based permafrost dynamics model GIPL developed in the Geophysical Institute Permafrost Lab, and which is the permafrost module of the Integrated Ecosystem Model (IEM) has been using to quantify the nature and rate of permafrost degradation and its impact on ecosystems, infrastructure, CO2 and CH4fluxes and net C storage following permafrost thaw across Alaska and Northwest Canada. The IEM project is a multi-institutional and multi-disciplinary effort aimed at understanding potential landscape, habitat and ecosystem change across the IEM domain. The IEM project also aims to tie three scientific models together Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM), the ALFRESCO (ALaska FRame-based EcoSystem Code) and GIPL so that they exchange data at run-time. The models produce forecasts of future fire, vegetation, organic matter, permafrost and hydrology regimes. The climate forcing data are based on the historical CRU3.1 data set for the retrospective analysis period (1901-2009) and the CMIP3 CCCMA-CGCM3.1 and MPI-ECHAM5/MPI-OM climate models for the future period (2009-2100). All data sets were downscaled to a 1 km resolution, using a differencing methodology (i.e., a delta method) and the Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) climatology. We estimated the dynamics of permafrost temperature, active layer thickness, area occupied by permafrost, and volume of thawed soils across the IEM domain. The modeling results indicate how different types of ecosystems affect the thermal state of permafrost and its stability. Although the rate of soil warming and permafrost degradation in peatland areas are slower than other areas, a considerable volume of peat will be thawed by the end of the current century. The release of carbon and the net effect of this thawing depends on the balance between increased productivity and respiration, which depend, in part, on soil moisture dynamics.

A new concept to study the effect of climate change on different flood types

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nissen, Katrin; Nied, Manuela; Pardowitz, Tobias; Ulbrich, Uwe; Merz, Bruno

2014-05-01

Flooding is triggered by the interaction of various processes. Especially important are the hydrological conditions prior to the event (e.g. soil saturation, snow cover) and the meteorological conditions during flood development (e.g. rainfall, temperature). Depending on these (pre-) conditions different flood types may develop such as long-rain floods, short-rain floods, flash floods, snowmelt floods and rain-on-snow floods. A new concept taking these factors into account is introduced and applied to flooding in the Elbe River basin. During the period September 1957 to August 2002, 82 flood events are identified and classified according to their flood type. The hydrological and meteorological conditions at each day during the analysis period are detemined. In case of the hydrological conditions, a soil moisture pattern classification is carried out. Soil moisture is simulated with a rainfall-runoff model driven by atmospheric observations. Days of similar soil moisture patterns are identified by a principle component analysis and a subsequent cluster analysis on the leading principal components. The meteorological conditions are identified by applying a cluster analysis to the geopotential height, temperature and humidity fields of the ERA40 reanalysis data set using the SANDRA cluster algorithm. We are able to identify specific pattern combinations of hydrological pre-conditions and meteorological conditions which favour different flood types. Based on these results it is possible to analyse the effect of climate change on different flood types. As an example we show first results obtained using an ensemble of climate scenario simulations of ECHAM5 MPIOM model, taking only the changes in the meteorological conditions into account. According to the simulations, the frequency of the meteorological patterns favouring long-rain, short-rain and flash floods will not change significantly under future climate conditions. A significant increase is, however, predicted for the amount of precipitation associated with many of the relevant meteorological patterns. The increase varies between 12 and 67% depending on the weather pattern.

Simulation climate change impact on runoff and sediment yield in a small watershed in the basque country, northern Spain.

PubMed

Zabaleta, Ane; Meaurio, Maite; Ruiz, Estilita; Antigüedad, Iñaki

2014-01-01

Climate change is likely to have an impact on runoff and fluvial sediments in watersheds. These factors are among those used to characterize water bodies in relation to the European Water Framework Directive (WFD). Hence, it is important to investigate the extent to which climate change may hinder the achievement of the objectives of the WFD. We explored the potential impact of climate change on runoff and sediment yield for the Aixola watershed using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The model calibration (2007-2010) and validation (2005-2006) results were rated as satisfactory. Subsequently, simulations were run for four climate change model-scenario combinations based on two general circulation models (CGCM2 and ECHAM4) under two emissions scenarios (A2 and B2) from 2011 to 2100. All combinations predicted that runoff and sediment yield would decrease compared with baseline (1961-1990). Three combinations suggested that runoff and sediments would decrease by 0.13 to 0.45 m s and 0.11 to 0.43 t every year from 2011 to 2100. However, the CGCM2-B2 scenario resulted in an "extremely likely" increase in runoff and sediments of 0.94 m s and 0.57 t every year. These variations in annual sediment yield are closely related to changes in precipitation. The high degree of uncertainty in the results must be considered when assessing potential impacts and making decisions about adaptation measures. Nevertheless, this first attempt to estimate future sediment yields in our region could be a useful starting point to explore future hydrological impacts in the area. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.

How Will Climate Change Impact Cholera Outbreaks?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nasr Azadani, F.; Jutla, A.; Rahimikolu, J.; Akanda, A. S.; Huq, A.; Colwell, R. R.

2014-12-01

Environmental parameters associated with cholera are well documented. However, cholera continues to be a global public health threat. Uncertainty in defining environmental processes affecting growth and multiplication of the cholera bacteria can be affected significantly by changing climate at different temporal and spatial scales, either through amplification of the hydroclimatic cycle or by enhanced variability of large scale geophysical processes. Endemic cholera in the Bengal Delta region of South Asia has a unique pattern of two seasonal peaks and there are associated with asymmetric and episodic variability in river discharge. The first cholera outbreak in spring is related with intrusion of bacteria laden coastal seawater during low river discharge. Cholera occurring during the fall season is hypothesized to be associated with high river discharge related to a cross-contamination of water resources and, therefore, a second wave of disease, a phenomenon characteristic primarily in the inland regions. Because of difficulties in establishing linkage between coarse resolutions of the Global Climate Model (GCM) output and localized disease outbreaks, the impact of climate change on diarrheal disease has not been explored. Here using the downscaling method of Support Vector Machines from HADCM3 and ECHAM models, we show how cholera outbreak patterns are changing in the Bengal Delta. Our preliminary results indicate statistically significant changes in both seasonality and magnitude in the occurrence of cholera over the next century. Endemic cholera is likely to transform into epidemic forms and new geographical areas will be at risk for cholera outbreaks.

Synoptic Control of Contrail Cirrus Life Cycles and Their Modification Due to Reduced Soot Number Emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bier, A.; Burkhardt, U.; Bock, L.

2017-11-01

The atmospheric state, aircraft emissions, and engine properties determine formation and initial properties of contrails. The synoptic situation controls microphysical and dynamical processes and causes a wide variability of contrail cirrus life cycles. A reduction of soot particle number emissions, resulting, for example, from the use of alternative fuels, strongly impacts initial ice crystal numbers and microphysical process rates of contrail cirrus. We use the European Centre/Hamburg (ECHAM) climate model version 5 including a contrail cirrus modul, studying process rates, properties, and life cycles of contrail cirrus clusters within different synoptic situations. The impact of reduced soot number emissions is approximated by a reduction in the initial ice crystal number, exemplarily studied for 80%. Contrail cirrus microphysical and macrophysical properties can depend much more strongly on the synoptic situation than on the initial ice crystal number. They can attain a large cover, optical depth, and ice water content in long-lived and large-scale ice-supersaturated areas, making them particularly climate-relevant. In those synoptic situations, the accumulated ice crystal loss due to sedimentation is increased by around 15% and the volume of contrail cirrus, exceeding an optical depth of 0.02, and their short-wave radiative impact are strongly decreased due to reduced soot emissions. These reductions are of little consequence in short-lived and small-scale ice-supersaturated areas, where contrail cirrus stay optically very thin and attain a low cover. The synoptic situations in which long-lived and climate-relevant contrail cirrus clusters can be found over the eastern U.S. occur in around 25% of cases.

Impact of major volcanic eruptions on stratospheric water vapour

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Löffler, Michael; Brinkop, Sabine; Jöckel, Patrick

2016-05-01

Volcanic eruptions can have a significant impact on the Earth's weather and climate system. Besides the subsequent tropospheric changes, the stratosphere is also influenced by large eruptions. Here changes in stratospheric water vapour after the two major volcanic eruptions of El Chichón in Mexico in 1982 and Mount Pinatubo on the Philippines in 1991 are investigated with chemistry-climate model simulations. This study is based on two simulations with specified dynamics of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Hamburg - Modular Earth Submodel System (ECHAM/MESSy) Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) model, performed within the Earth System Chemistry integrated Modelling (ESCiMo) project, of which only one includes the long-wave volcanic forcing through prescribed aerosol optical properties. The results show a significant increase in stratospheric water vapour induced by the eruptions, resulting from increased heating rates and the subsequent changes in stratospheric and tropopause temperatures in the tropics. The tropical vertical advection and the South Asian summer monsoon are identified as sources for the additional water vapour in the stratosphere. Additionally, volcanic influences on tropospheric water vapour and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are evident, if the long-wave forcing is strong enough. Our results are corroborated by additional sensitivity simulations of the Mount Pinatubo period with reduced nudging and reduced volcanic aerosol extinction.

Do GCM's Predict the Climate.... Or the Low Frequency Weather?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lovejoy, S.; Varon, D.; Schertzer, D. J.

2011-12-01

Over twenty-five years ago, a three-regime scaling model was proposed describing the statistical variability of the atmosphere over time scales ranging from weather scales out to ≈ 100 kyrs. Using modern in situ data reanalyses, monthly surface series (at 5ox5o), 8 "multiproxy" (yearly) series of the Northern hemisphere from 1500- 1980, and GRIP and Vostok paleotemperatures at 5.2 and ≈ 100 year resolutions (over the past 91-420 kyrs), we refine the model and show how it can be understood with the help of new developments in nonlinear dynamics, especially multifractals and cascades. In a scaling range, mean fluctuations in state variables such as temperature ΔT ≈ ΔtH the where Δt is the duration. At small (weather) scales the fluctuation exponents are generally H>0; they grow with scale. At longer scales Δt >τw (≈ 10 days) they change sign, the fluctuations decrease with scale; this is the low variability, "low frequency weather" regime the spectrum is a relatively flat "plateau", it's variability is that of the usual idea of "long term weather statistics". Finally for longer times, Δt>τc ≈ 10 - 100 years, again H>0, the variability again increases with scale. This is the true climate regime. These scaling regimes allow us to objectively define the weather as fluctuations over periods <τw, "climate states", as fluctuations at scale τc and "climate change" as the fluctuations at longer periods >τc). We show that the intermediate regime is the result of the weather regime undergoing a "dimensional transition": at temporal scales longer than the typical lifetime of planetary structures (τw), the spatial degrees of freedom are rapidly quenched, only the temporal degrees of freedom are important. This low frequency weather regime has statistical properties well reproduced not only by weather cascade models, but also by control runs (i.e. without climate forcing) of GCM's (including IPSL and ECHAM GCM's). In order for GCM's to go beyond simply predicting this low frequency weather so as to predict the climate, they need appropriate climate forcings and/ or new internal mechanisms of variability. We examine this using wavelet analyses of forced and unforced GCM outputs, including the ECHO-G simulation used in the Millenium project. For example, we find that climate scenarios with large CO2 increases do give rise to a climate regime but that Hc>1 i.e. much larger than that of natural variability which for temperatures has Hc≈0.4. In comparison, the (largely volcanic) forcing of the ECHO-G Millenium simulation is fairly realistic (Hc≈0.4), although it is not clear that this mechanism can explain the even lower frequency variability found in the paleotemperature series, nor is it clear that this is compatible with low frequency solar or orbital forcings.

The effects of global change upon United States air quality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gonzalez-Abraham, R.; Chung, S. H.; Avise, J.; Lamb, B.; Salathé, E. P., Jr.; Nolte, C. G.; Loughlin, D.; Guenther, A.; Wiedinmyer, C.; Duhl, T.; Zhang, Y.; Streets, D. G.

2015-11-01

To understand more fully the effects of global changes on ambient concentrations of ozone and particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter smaller than 2.5 μm (PM2.5) in the United States (US), we conducted a comprehensive modeling effort to evaluate explicitly the effects of changes in climate, biogenic emissions, land use and global/regional anthropogenic emissions on ozone and PM2.5 concentrations and composition. Results from the ECHAM5 global climate model driven with the A1B emission scenario from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) were downscaled using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to provide regional meteorological fields. We developed air quality simulations using the Community Multiscale Air Quality Model (CMAQ) chemical transport model for two nested domains with 220 and 36 km horizontal grid cell resolution for a semi-hemispheric domain and a continental United States (US) domain, respectively. The semi-hemispheric domain was used to evaluate the impact of projected global emissions changes on US air quality. WRF meteorological fields were used to calculate current (2000s) and future (2050s) biogenic emissions using the Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature (MEGAN). For the semi-hemispheric domain CMAQ simulations, present-day global emissions inventories were used and projected to the 2050s based on the IPCC A1B scenario. Regional anthropogenic emissions were obtained from the US Environmental Protection Agency National Emission Inventory 2002 (EPA NEI2002) and projected to the future using the MARKet ALlocation (MARKAL) energy system model assuming a business as usual scenario that extends current decade emission regulations through 2050. Our results suggest that daily maximum 8 h average ozone (DM8O) concentrations will increase in a range between 2 to 12 parts per billion (ppb) across most of the continental US. The highest increase occurs in the South, Central and Midwest regions of the US due to increases in temperature, enhanced biogenic emissions and changes in land use. The model predicts an average increase of 1-6 ppb in DM8O due to projected increase in global emissions of ozone precursors. The effects of these factors are only partially offset by reductions in DM8O associated with decreasing US anthropogenic emissions. Increases in PM2.5 levels between 4 and 10 μg m-3 in the Northeast, Southeast, Midwest and South regions are mostly a result of increase in primary anthropogenic particulate matter (PM), enhanced biogenic emissions and land use changes. Changes in boundary conditions shift the composition but do not alter overall simulated PM2.5 mass concentrations.

Using in-situ observations of atmospheric water vapor isotopes to benchmark and isotope-enabled General Circulation Models and improve ice core paleo-climate reconstruction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steen-Larsen, Hans Christian; Sveinbjörnsdottir, Arny; Masson-Delmotte, Valerie; Werner, Martin; Risi, Camille; Yoshimura, Kei

2016-04-01

We have since 2010 carried out in-situ continuous water vapor isotope observations on top of the Greenland Ice Sheet (3 seasons at NEEM), in Svalbard (1 year), in Iceland (4 years), in Bermuda (4 years). The expansive dataset containing high accuracy and precision measurements of δ18O, δD, and the d-excess allow us to validate and benchmark the treatment of the atmospheric hydrological cycle's processes in General Circulation Models using simulations nudged to reanalysis products. Recent findings from both Antarctica and Greenland have documented strong interaction between the snow surface isotopes and the near surface atmospheric water vapor isotopes on diurnal to synoptic time scales. In fact, it has been shown that the snow surface isotopes take up the synoptic driven atmospheric water vapor isotopic signal in-between precipitation events, erasing the precipitation isotope signal in the surface snow. This highlights the importance of using General or Regional Climate Models, which accurately are able to simulate the atmospheric water vapor isotopic composition, to understand and interpret the ice core isotope signal. With this in mind we have used three isotope-enabled General Circulation Models (isoGSM, ECHAM5-wiso, and LMDZiso) nudged to reanalysis products. We have compared the simulations of daily mean isotope values directly with our in-situ observations. This has allowed us to characterize the variability of the isotopic composition in the models and compared it to our observations. We have specifically focused on the d-excess in order to characterize why both the mean and the variability is significantly lower than our observations. We argue that using water vapor isotopes to benchmark General Circulation Models offers an excellent tool for improving the treatment and parameterization of the atmospheric hydrological cycle. Recent studies have documented a very large inter-model dispersion in the treatment of the Arctic water cycle under a future global warming and greenhouse gas emission scenario. Our results call for action to create an international pan-Arctic monitoring water vapor isotope network in order to improve future projections of Arctic climate.

The role of anthropogenic aerosol emission reduction in achieving the Paris Agreement's objective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hienola, Anca; Pietikäinen, Joni-Pekka; O'Donnell, Declan; Partanen, Antti-Ilari; Korhonen, Hannele; Laaksonen, Ari

2017-04-01

The Paris agreement reached in December 2015 under the auspices of the United Nation Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) aims at holding the global temperature increase to well below 2◦C above preindustrial levels and "to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5◦C above preindustrial levels". Limiting warming to any level implies that the total amount of carbon dioxide (CO2) - the dominant driver of long-term temperatures - that can ever be emitted into the atmosphere is finite. Essentially, this means that global CO2 emissions need to become net zero. CO2 is not the only pollutant causing warming, although it is the most persistent. Short-lived, non-CO2 climate forcers also must also be considered. Whereas much effort has been put into defining a threshold for temperature increase and zero net carbon emissions, surprisingly little attention has been paid to the non-CO2 climate forcers, including not just the non-CO2 greenhouse gases (methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), halocarbons etc.) but also the anthropogenic aerosols like black carbon (BC), organic carbon (OC) and sulfate. This study investigates the possibility of limiting the temperature increase to 1.5◦C by the end of the century under different future scenarios of anthropogenic aerosol emissions simulated with the very simplistic MAGICC climate carbon cycle model as well as with ECHAM6.1-HAM2.2-SALSA + UVic ESCM. The simulations include two different CO2 scenarios- RCP3PD as control and a CO2 reduction leading to 1.5◦C (which translates into reaching the net zero CO2 emissions by mid 2040s followed by negative emissions by the end of the century); each CO2 scenario includes also two aerosol pollution control cases denoted with CLE (current legislation) and MFR (maximum feasible reduction). The main result of the above scenarios is that the stronger the anthropogenic aerosol emission reduction is, the more significant the temperature increase by 2100 relative to pre-industrial temperature will be, making the 1.5◦C temperature goal impossible to reach. Although the global reduction of anthropogenic aerosols can greatly enforce the global warming effect due to GHGs, all our simulations resulted in temperature increase bellow (but not well bellow) 2◦C above preindustrial levels - a slightly more realistic target compared to 1.5◦C. The results of this study are based on simulations of only two climate models. As such, we do not regard these results as indisputable, but we consider that aerosols and their effect on climate deserve more attention when discussing future aerosol emission.

Modes of North Atlantic Decadal Variability in the ECHAM1/LSG Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere General Circulation Model.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zorita, Eduardo; Frankignoul, Claude

1997-02-01

The climate variability in the North Atlantic sector is investigated in a 325-yr integration of the ECHAM1/ LSG coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model. At the interannual timescale, the coupled model behaves realistically and sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies arise as a response of the oceanic surface layer to the stochastic forcing by the atmosphere, with the heat exchanges both generating and damping the SST anomalies. In the ocean interior, the temperature spectra are red up to a period of about 20 years, and substantial decadal fluctuations are found in the upper kilometer or so of the water column. Using extended empirical orthogonal function analysis, two distinct quasi-oscillatory modes of ocean-atmosphere variability are identified, with dominant periods of about 20 and 10 years, respectively. The oceanic changes in both modes reflect the direct forcing by the atmosphere through anomalous air-sea fluxes and Ekman pumping, which after some delay affects the intensity of the subtropical and subpolar gyres. The SST is also strongly modulated by the gyre currents. In the thermocline, the temperature and salinity fluctuations are in phase, as if caused by thermocline displacements, and they have no apparent connection with the thermohaline circulation. The 20-yr mode is the most energetic one; it is easily seen in the thermocline and can be found in SST data, but it is not detected in the atmosphere alone. As there is no evidence of positive ocean-atmosphere feedback, the 20-yr mode primarily reflects the passive response of the ocean to atmospheric fluctuations, which may be in part associated with climate anomalies appearing a few years earlier in the North Pacific. The 10-yr mode is more surface trapped in the ocean. Although the mode is most easily seen in the temperature variations of the upper few hundred meters of the ocean, it is also detected in the atmosphere alone and thus appears to be a coupled ocean-atmosphere mode. In both modes, the surface heat flux acts neutrally on the associated SST anomalies once they have been generated, so that their persistence appears to be due in part to an overall adjustment of the air-sea heat exchanges to the SST patterns.

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons - fate and long-range atmospheric transport studied using a global model, EMAC-SVOC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Octaviani, Mega; Tost, Holger; Lammel, Gerhard

2017-04-01

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are emitted by incomplete combustion from fossil fuel, vehicles, and biomass burning. They may persist in environmental compartments, pose a health hazard and may bio accumulate along food chains. The ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) model had been used to simulate global tropospheric, stratospheric chemistry and climate. In this study, we improve the model to include simulations of the transport and fate of semi-volatile organic compounds (SVOC). The EMAC-SVOC model takes into account essential environmental processes including gas-particle partitioning, dry and wet deposition, chemical and bio-degradation, and volatilization from sea surface, soils, vegetation, and snow. The model was evaluated against observational data in the Arctic, mid-latitudes, and tropics, and further applied to study total environmental lifetime and long-range transport potential (LRTP) of PAHs. We selected four compounds for study, spanning a wide range of volatility, i.e., phenanthrene, fluoranthene, pyrene, and benzo[a]pyrene. Several LRTP indicators were investigated, including the Arctic contamination potential, meridional spreading, and zonal and meridional fluxes to remote regions.

Global-scale combustion sources of organic aerosols: sensitivity to formation and removal mechanisms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsimpidi, Alexandra P.; Karydis, Vlassis A.; Pandis, Spyros N.; Lelieveld, Jos

2017-06-01

Organic compounds from combustion sources such as biomass burning and fossil fuel use are major contributors to the global atmospheric load of aerosols. We analyzed the sensitivity of model-predicted global-scale organic aerosols (OA) to parameters that control primary emissions, photochemical aging, and the scavenging efficiency of organic vapors. We used a computationally efficient module for the description of OA composition and evolution in the atmosphere (ORACLE) of the global chemistry-climate model EMAC (ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry). A global dataset of aerosol mass spectrometer (AMS) measurements was used to evaluate simulated primary (POA) and secondary (SOA) OA concentrations. Model results are sensitive to the emission rates of intermediate-volatility organic compounds (IVOCs) and POA. Assuming enhanced reactivity of semi-volatile organic compounds (SVOCs) and IVOCs with OH substantially improved the model performance for SOA. The use of a hybrid approach for the parameterization of the aging of IVOCs had a small effect on predicted SOA levels. The model performance improved by assuming that freshly emitted organic compounds are relatively hydrophobic and become increasingly hygroscopic due to oxidation.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mitchell, David L.

It is well known that cirrus clouds play a major role in regulating the earth’s climate, but the details of how this works are just beginning to be understood. This project targeted the main property of cirrus clouds that influence climate processes; the ice fall speed. That is, this project improves the representation of the mass-weighted ice particle fall velocity, V m, in climate models, used to predict future climate on global and regional scales. Prior to 2007, the dominant sizes of ice particles in cirrus clouds were poorly understood, making it virtually impossible to predict how cirrus clouds interactmore » with sunlight and thermal radiation. Due to several studies investigating the performance of optical probes used to measure the ice particle size distribution (PSD), as well as the remote sensing results from our last ARM project, it is now well established that the anomalously high concentrations of small ice crystals often reported prior to 2007 were measurement artifacts. Advances in the design and data processing of optical probes have greatly reduced these ice artifacts that resulted from the shattering of ice particles on the probe tips and/or inlet tube, and PSD measurements from one of these improved probes (the 2-dimensional Stereo or 2D-S probe) are utilized in this project to parameterize V m for climate models. Our original plan in the proposal was to parameterize the ice PSD (in terms of temperature and ice water content) and ice particle mass and projected area (in terms of mass- and area-dimensional power laws or m-D/A-D expressions) since these are the microphysical properties that determine V m, and then proceed to calculate V m from these parameterized properties. But the 2D-S probe directly measures ice particle projected area and indirectly estimates ice particle mass for each size bin. It soon became apparent that the original plan would introduce more uncertainty in the V m calculations than simply using the 2D-S measurements to directly calculate V m. By calculating V m directly from the measured PSD, ice particle projected area and estimated mass, more accurate estimates of V m are obtained. These V m values were then parameterized for climate models by relating them to (1) sampling temperature and ice water content (IWC) and (2) the effective diameter (D e) of the ice PSD. Parameterization (1) is appropriate for climate models having single-moment microphysical schemes whereas (2) is appropriate for double-moment microphysical schemes and yields more accurate V m estimates. These parameterizations were developed for tropical cirrus clouds, Arctic cirrus, mid-latitude synoptic cirrus and mid-latitude anvil cirrus clouds based on field campaigns in these regions. An important but unexpected result of this research was the discovery of microphysical evidence indicating the mechanisms by which ice crystals are produced in cirrus clouds. This evidence, derived from PSD measurements, indicates that homogeneous freezing ice nucleation dominates in mid-latitude synoptic cirrus clouds, whereas heterogeneous ice nucleation processes dominate in mid-latitude anvil cirrus. Based on these findings, D e was parameterized in terms of temperature (T) for conditions dominated by (1) homo- and (2) heterogeneous ice nucleation. From this, an experiment was designed for global climate models (GCMs). The net radiative forcing from cirrus clouds may be affected by the means ice is produced (homo- or heterogeneously), and this net forcing contributes to climate sensitivity (i.e. the change in mean global surface temperature resulting from a doubling of CO 2). The objective of this GCM experiment was to determine how a change in ice nucleation mode affects the predicted global radiation balance. In the first simulation (Run 1), the D e-T relationship for homogeneous nucleation is used at all latitudes, while in the second simulation (Run 2), the D e-T relationship for heterogeneous nucleation is used at all latitudes. For both runs, V m is calculated from D e. Two GCMs were used; the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5) and a European GCM known as ECHAM5 (thanks to our European colleagues who collaborated with us). Similar results were obtained from both GCMs in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes, with a net cooling of ~ 1.0 W m -2 due to heterogeneous nucleation, relative to Run 1. The mean global net cooling was 2.4 W m -2 for the ECHAM5 GCM while CAM5 produced a mean global net cooling of about 0.8 W m -2. This dependence of the radiation balance on nucleation mode is substantial when one considers the direct radiative forcing from a CO 2 doubling is 4 W m -2. The differences between GCMs in mean global net cooling estimates may demonstrate a need for improving the representation of cirrus clouds in GCMs, including the coupling between microphysical and radiative properties. Unfortunately, after completing this GCM experiment, we learned from the company that provided the 2D-S microphysical data that the data was corrupted due to a computer program coding problem. Therefore the microphysical data had to be reprocessed and reanalyzed, and the GCM experiments were redone under our current ASR project but using an improved experimental design.« less

Modeling The Hydrology And Water Allocation Under Climate Change In Rural River Basins: A Case Study From Nam Ngum River Basin, Laos

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jayasekera, D. L.; Kaluarachchi, J.; Kim, U.

2011-12-01

Rural river basins with sufficient water availability to maintain economic livelihoods can be affected with seasonal fluctuations of precipitation and sometimes by droughts. In addition, climate change impacts can also alter future water availability. General Circulation Models (GCMs) provide credible quantitative estimates of future climate conditions but such estimates are often characterized by bias and coarse scale resolution making it necessary to downscale the outputs for use in regional hydrologic models. This study develops a methodology to downscale and project future monthly precipitation in moderate scale basins where data are limited. A stochastic framework for single-site and multi-site generation of weekly rainfall is developed while preserving the historical temporal and spatial correlation structures. The spatial correlations in the simulated occurrences and the amounts are induced using spatially correlated yet serially independent random numbers. This method is applied to generate weekly precipitation data for a 100-year period in the Nam Ngum River Basin (NNRB) that has a land area of 16,780 km2 located in Lao P.D.R. This method is developed and applied using precipitation data from 1961 to 2000 for 10 selected weather stations that represents the basin rainfall characteristics. Bias-correction method, based on fitted theoretical probability distribution transformations, is applied to improve monthly mean frequency, intensity and the amount of raw GCM precipitation predicted at a given weather station using CGCM3.1 and ECHAM5 for SRES A2 emission scenario. Bias-correction procedure adjusts GCM precipitation to approximate the long-term frequency and the intensity distribution observed at a given weather station. Index of agreement and mean absolute error are determined to assess the overall ability and performance of the bias correction method. The generated precipitation series aggregated at monthly time step was perturbed by the change factors estimated using the corrected GCM and baseline scenarios for future time periods of 2011-2050 and 2051-2090. A network based hydrologic and water resources model, WEAP, was used to simulate the current water allocation and management practices to identify the impacts of climate change in the 20th century. The results of this work are used to identify the multiple challenges faced by stakeholders and planners in water allocation for competing demands in the presence of climate change impacts.

Analyzing the future climate change of Upper Blue Nile River basin using statistical downscaling techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fenta Mekonnen, Dagnenet; Disse, Markus

2018-04-01

Climate change is becoming one of the most threatening issues for the world today in terms of its global context and its response to environmental and socioeconomic drivers. However, large uncertainties between different general circulation models (GCMs) and coarse spatial resolutions make it difficult to use the outputs of GCMs directly, especially for sustainable water management at regional scale, which introduces the need for downscaling techniques using a multimodel approach. This study aims (i) to evaluate the comparative performance of two widely used statistical downscaling techniques, namely the Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG) and the Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM), and (ii) to downscale future climate scenarios of precipitation, maximum temperature (Tmax) and minimum temperature (Tmin) of the Upper Blue Nile River basin at finer spatial and temporal scales to suit further hydrological impact studies. The calibration and validation result illustrates that both downscaling techniques (LARS-WG and SDSM) have shown comparable and good ability to simulate the current local climate variables. Further quantitative and qualitative comparative performance evaluation was done by equally weighted and varying weights of statistical indexes for precipitation only. The evaluation result showed that SDSM using the canESM2 CMIP5 GCM was able to reproduce more accurate long-term mean monthly precipitation but LARS-WG performed best in capturing the extreme events and distribution of daily precipitation in the whole data range. Six selected multimodel CMIP3 GCMs, namely HadCM3, GFDL-CM2.1, ECHAM5-OM, CCSM3, MRI-CGCM2.3.2 and CSIRO-MK3 GCMs, were used for downscaling climate scenarios by the LARS-WG model. The result from the ensemble mean of the six GCM showed an increasing trend for precipitation, Tmax and Tmin. The relative change in precipitation ranged from 1.0 to 14.4 % while the change for mean annual Tmax may increase from 0.4 to 4.3 °C and the change for mean annual Tmin may increase from 0.3 to 4.1 °C. The individual result of the HadCM3 GCM has a good agreement with the ensemble mean result. HadCM3 from CMIP3 using A2a and B2a scenarios and canESM2 from CMIP5 GCMs under RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios were downscaled by SDSM. The result from the two GCMs under five different scenarios agrees with the increasing direction of three climate variables (precipitation, Tmax and Tmin). The relative change of the downscaled mean annual precipitation ranges from 2.1 to 43.8 % while the change for mean annual Tmax and Tmin may increase in the range from 0.4 to 2.9 °C and from 0.3 to 1.6 °C respectively.

Regional climate simulations over complex topography using WRF: Andalusian present climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Argüeso, D.; Hidalgo-Muñoz, J. M.; Calandria-Hernández, D.; Gámiz-Fortis, S. R.; Esteban-Parra, M. J.; Castro-Díez, Y.

2010-09-01

In this study three WRF simulations were carried out and analyzed to assess its accuracy to describe the main climate features of Southern Spain in terms of maximum temperature, minimum temperature and precipitation. Present climate was represented by the last 30 year of the 20th Century (1970-1999). The model was evaluated using an observational network distributed throughout Andalusia that comprised both temperatures and precipitation. Since comparison between site-specific measurements and model grid points is definitely troublesome due to differences in spatial-scale, a multi-step regionalization strategy was adopted to upscale observational information. This is of particular importance when studying complex topography regions such as Andalusia, with a wide range of climate conditions in a relative small area. Additionally, WRF outputs were also compared with SPAIN02, a 20-km resolution gridded dataset of precipitation for further validation of the model performance. The model set up consisted in two domains with one-way nesting and spectral nudging. The target domain has a resolution of 10km with 136 by 136 points covering the whole Iberian Peninsula and nested in a coarser domain of 30-km resolution and 130 by 120 grid points. Both domains have 35 vertical levels. Three different driving data were used to provide the boundary conditions, one reanalysis (ERA-40) and two control runs from different General Circulation Models (ECHAM5 and CCSM 3.0). A conservative 7-month spin-up period was added to the 30-year simulation so that dependence on initial conditions can be completely removed. Physics options were chosen on the basis of previous parameterization sensitivity tests over Andalusia that led to a compromise configuration that adequately describes the different subclimates. Probability distributions of daily values as well as monthly statistics were examined to determine the uncertainties associated to each variable and take them into consideration for future regional high-resolution projections of climate change scenarios. These analyses permitted to conclude that WRF is an extremely useful tool due to the significant value-added information produced with respect to the driving data. Nonetheless, according to differences in performance between regions it has also been shown that results must be interpreted carefully depending on the region characteristics. Acknowledgements: The Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation, with additional support from the European Community Funds (FEDER), project CGL2007-61151/CLI, and the Regional Government of Andalusia project P06-RNM-01622, have financed this study.

Analyses of Projected Changes in Climate for Sub-Saharan Africa Using a Variable-Resolution Atmospheric Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adegoke, J.; Engelbrecht, F.; Vezhapparambu, S.

2012-12-01

The conformal-cubic atmospheric model (CCAM) is employed in this study as a flexible downscaling tool at the climate-change time scale. In the downscaling procedure, the sea-ice and bias-corrected SSTs of 6 CGCMs (CSIRO Mk 3.5, GFDL2.1, GFDL2.0, HadCM2, ECHAM5 and Miroc-Medres) from AR4 of the IPCC were first used as lower-boundary forcing in CCAM simulations performed at a quasi-uniform resolution (about 200 km in the horizontal), which were subsequently downscaled to a resolution of about 60 km over southern and tropical Africa. All the simulations were for the A2 scenario of the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES), and for the period 1961-2100. The SST biases were derived by comparing the simulated and observed present-day climatol¬ogy of SSTs for 1979-1999 for each month of the year; the same monthly bias corrections were applied for the duration of the simulations. CCAM ensemble projected change in annual average temperature and Rainfall for 2071-2100 vs 1961-1990 for tropical Africa will be presented and discussed. In summary, a robust signal of drastic increases in surface temperature (more than 3 degrees C for the period 2071-2100 relative to 1961-1990) is projected across the domain. Temperature increases as large as 5 degrees C are projected over the subtropical regions in the north of the domain. Increase in rainfall over tropical Africa (for the period 2071-2100 relative to 1961-1990) is projected across the domain. This is consistent with an increase in moisture in a generally warmer atmosphere. There is a robust signal of drying along the West African coast - however, the CMIP3 CGCM projections indicate a wide range of possible rainfall futures over this region The projections of East Africa becoming wetter is robust across the CCAM ensemble, consistent with the CGCM projections of CMIP3 and AR4.

Simulation of Rainfall Variability Over West Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bader, J.; Latif, M.

The impact of sea surface temperature (SST) and vegetation on precipitation over West Africa is investigated with the atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM4.x/T42. Ensemble experiments -driven with observed SST- show that At- lantic SST has a significant influence on JJA precipitation over West Africa. Four- teen experiments were performed in which the climatological SST was enhanced or decreased by one Kelvin in certain ocean areas. Changing SST in the eastern tropi- cal Atlantic only caused significant changes along the Guinea Coast, with a positive SSTA increasing rainfall and a negative reducing it. The response was nearly linear. Changing SST in other ocean areas caused significant changes over West Africa, es- pecially in the Sahel area. The response is found to be non linear, with only negative SSTA leading to significant reduction in Sahel rainfall. Also, the impact of the SSTAs from the different ocean regions was not additive with respect to the rainfall. Four simulations with a coupled model (the simple dynamic vegetation model (SVege) and the ECHAM4-AGCM were coupled) were also performed, driven with observed SST from 1945 to 1998. The standard ECHAM-AGCM -forced by the same observed SST- was able to reproduce the drying trend from the fifties to the mid-eighties in the Sahel, but failed to mirror the magnitude of the rainfall anomalies. The coupled model was not only able to reproduce this drying trend, but was also able to better reproduce the amplitudes of the rainfall anomalies. The dynamic vegetation acted like an amplifier, increasing the SST induced rainfall anomalies.

Potential impacts of a future Grand Solar Minimum on decadal regional climate change and interannual hemispherical climate variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spiegl, Tobias; Langematz, Ulrike

2016-04-01

The political, technical and socio-economic developments of the next decades will determine the magnitude of 21st century climate change, since they are inextricably linked to future anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. To assess the range of uncertainty that is related to these developments, it is common to assume different emission scenarios for 21st climate projections. While the uncertainties associated with the anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing have been studied intensely, the contribution of natural climate drivers (particularly solar variability) to recent and future climate change are subject of intense debate. The past 1,000 years featured at least 5 excursions (lasting 60-100 years) of exceptionally low solar activity, induced by a weak magnetic field of the Sun, so called Grand Solar Minima. While the global temperature response to such a decrease in solar activity is assumed to be rather small, nonlinear mechanisms in the climate system might amplify the regional temperature signal. This hypothesis is supported by the last Grand Solar Minimum (the Maunder Minimum, 1645-1715) which coincides with the Little Ice Age, an epoch which is characterized by severe cold and hardship over Europe, North America and Asia. The long-lasting minimum of Solar Cycle 23 as well as the overall weak maximum of Cycle 24 reveal the possibility for a return to Grand Solar Minimum conditions within the next decades. The quantification of the implications of such a projected decrease in solar forcing is of ultimate importance, given the on-going public discussion of the role of carbon dioxide emissions for global warming, and the possible role a cooling due to decreasing solar activity could be ascribed to. Since there is still no clear consensus about the actual strength of the Maunder Minimum, we used 3 acknowledged solar reconstruction datasets that show significant differences in both, total solar irradiance (TSI) and spectral irradiance (SSI) to simulate a future Grand Solar Minimum under RCP6.0 conditions. The results obtained were compared to a RCP6.0 simulation that was carried out using the CCMI recommendations for a 21st century solar forcing. We used the ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) chemistry-climate model that incorporates interactive ozone chemistry, a high-resolution shortwave radiation scheme, a high model top (0.01 hPa) and is coupled to a 3D ocean general circulation model. We focused on the regional responses to a future Grand Solar Minimum and interannual variability patterns (i.e. the Northern and Southern Annular Mode (NAM/SAM)).

The thermal environment of the human being on the global scale

PubMed Central

Jendritzky, Gerd; Tinz, Birger

2009-01-01

Background The close relationship between human health, performance, well-being and the thermal environment is obvious. Nevertheless, most studies of climate and climate change impacts show amazing shortcomings in the assessment of the environment. Populations living in different climates have different susceptibilities, due to socio-economic reasons, and different customary behavioural adaptations. The global distribution of risks of hazardous thermal exposure has not been analysed before. Objective To produce maps of the baseline and future bioclimate that allows a direct comparison of the differences in the vulnerability of populations to thermal stress across the world. Design The required climatological data fields are obtained from climate simulations with the global General Circulation Model ECHAM4 in T106-resolution. For the thermo-physiologically relevant assessment of these climate data a complete heat budget model of the human being, the ‘Perceived Temperature’ procedure has been applied which already comprises adaptation by clothing to a certain degree. Short-term physiological acclimatisation is considered via Health Related Assessment of the Thermal Environment. Results The global maps 1971–1980 (control run, assumed as baseline climate) show a pattern of thermal stress intensities as frequencies of heat. The heat load for people living in warm–humid climates is the highest. Climate change will lead to clear differences in health-related thermal stress between baseline climate and the future bioclimate 2041–2050 based on the ‘business-as-usual’ greenhouse gas scenario IS92a. The majority of the world's population will be faced with more frequent and more intense heat strain in spite of an assumed level of acclimatisation. Further adaptation measures are crucial in order to reduce the vulnerability of the populations. Conclusions This bioclimatology analysis provides a tool for various questions in climate and climate change impact research. Considerations of regional or local scale require climate simulations with higher resolution. As adaptation is the key term in understanding the role of climate/climate change for human health, performance and well-being, further research in this field is crucial. PMID:20052427

Impact of 3-D orographic gravity wave parameterisation on stratosphere dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eichinger, Roland; Garny, Hella; Cai, Duy; Jöckel, Patrick

2017-04-01

Stratosphere dynamics are strongly influenced by gravity waves (GWs) propagating upwards from the troposphere. Some of these GWs are generated through flow over small-scale orography and can not be resolved by common general circulation models (GCMs). Due to computational model designs, their parameterisation usually follows a one dimensional columnar approach that, among other simplifications, neglects the horizontal propagation of GWs on their way up into the Middle Atmosphere. This causes contradictions between models and observations in location and strength of GW drag force through their dissipation and as a consequence, also in stratospheric mean flow. In the EMAC (ECHAM MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry) model, we have found this deficiency to cause a too weak Antarctic polar vortex, which directly impacts stratospheric temperatures and thereby the chemical reactions that determine ozone depletion. For this reason, we adapt a three dimensional parameterisation for orographic GWs, that had been implemented and tested in the MIROC GCM, to the MESSy coding standard. This computationally light scheme can then be used in a modular and flexible way in a cascade of model setups from an idealised version for conceptional process analyses to full climate chemistry simulations for quantitative investigations. This model enhancement can help to reconcile models and observations in wave drag forcing itself, but in consequence, also in Brewer-Dobson Circulation trends across the recent decades. Furthermore, uncertainties in weather and climate predictions as well as in future ozone projections can be reduced.

Projecting Future Changes in Extreme Weather During the North American Monsoon in the Southwest with High Resolution, Convective-Permitting Regional Atmospheric Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, H. I.; Castro, C. L.; Luong, T. M.; Lahmers, T.; Jares, M.; Carrillo, C. M.

2014-12-01

Most severe weather during the North American monsoon in the Southwest U.S. occurs in association with organized convection, including microbursts, dust storms, flash flooding and lightning. Our objective is to project how monsoon severe weather is changing due to anthropogenic global warming. We first consider a dynamically downscaled reanalysis (35 km grid spacing), generated with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model during the period 1948-2010. Individual severe weather events, identified by favorable thermodynamic conditions of instability and precipitable water, are then simulated for short-term, numerical weather prediction-type simulations of 24h at a convective-permitting scale (2 km grid spacing). Changes in the character of severe weather events within this period likely reflect long-term climate change driven by anthropogenic forcing. Next, we apply the identical model simulation and analysis procedures to several dynamically downscaled CMIP3 and CMIP5 models for the period 1950-2100, to assess how monsoon severe weather may change in the future and if these changes correspond with what is already occurring per the downscaled renalaysis and available observational data. The CMIP5 models we are downscaling (HadGEM and MPI-ECHAM6) will be included as part of North American CORDEX. The regional model experimental design for severe weather event projection reasonably accounts for the known operational forecast prerequisites for severe monsoon weather. The convective-permitting simulations show that monsoon convection appears to be reasonably well captured with the use of the dynamically downscaled reanalysis, in comparison to Stage IV precipitation data. The regional model tends to initiate convection too early, though correctly simulates the diurnal maximum in convection in the afternoon and subsequent westward propagation of thunderstorms. Projected changes in extreme event precipitation will be described in relation to the long-term changes in thermodynamic and dynamic forcing mechanisms for severe weather. Results from this project will be used for climate change impacts assessment for U.S. military installations in the region.

Evaluating meteo marine climatic model inputs for the investigation of coastal hydrodynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bellafiore, D.; Bucchignani, E.; Umgiesser, G.

2010-09-01

One of the major aspects discussed in the recent works on climate change is how to provide information from the global scale to the local one. In fact the influence of sea level rise and changes in the meteorological conditions due to climate change in strategic areas like the coastal zone is at the base of the well known mitigation and risk assessment plans. The investigation of the coastal zone hydrodynamics, from a modeling point of view, has been the field for the connection between hydraulic models and ocean models and, in terms of process studies, finite element models have demonstrated their suitability in the reproduction of complex coastal morphology and in the capability to reproduce different spatial scale hydrodynamic processes. In this work the connection between two different model families, the climate models and the hydrodynamic models usually implemented for process studies, is tested. Together, they can be the most suitable tool for the investigation of climate change on coastal systems. A finite element model, SHYFEM (Shallow water Hydrodynamic Finite Element Model), is implemented on the Adriatic Sea, to investigate the effect of wind forcing datasets produced by different downscaling from global climate models in terms of surge and its coastal effects. The wind datasets are produced by the regional climate model COSMO-CLM (CIRA), and by EBU-POM model (Belgrade University), both downscaling from ECHAM4. As a first step the downscaled wind datasets, that have different spatial resolutions, has been analyzed for the period 1960-1990 to compare what is their capability to reproduce the measured wind statistics in the coastal zone in front of the Venice Lagoon. The particularity of the Adriatic Sea meteo climate is connected with the influence of the orography in the strengthening of winds like Bora, from North-East. The increase in spatial resolution permits the more resolved wind dataset to better reproduce meteorology and to provide a more realistic forcing for hydrodynamic simulations. After this analysis, effects on water level variations, under different wind forcing, has been analyzed to define what is the local effect on sea level changes in the coastal area of the North Adriatic. Surge statistics produced from different climate model forcings for the IPCC A1B scenario have been studied to provide local information on climate change effects on coastal hydrodynamics due to meteorological effect. This typology of application has been considered a suitable tool for coastal management and can be considered a study field that will increase its importance in the more general investigation on scale interaction processes as the effects of global scale climate phenomena on local areas.

Dehydration, denitrification and ozone loss during the Arctic winter 2015/2016: Simulations with the Chemistry-Climate Model EMAC and comparison to Aura/MLS and GLORIA observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khosrawi, Farahnaz; Kirner, Oliver; Sinnhuber, Bjoern-Martin; Johansson, Sören; Höpfner, Michael; Santee, Michelle L.; Manney, Gloria; Froidevaux, Lucien; Ungermann, Jörn; Preusse, Peter; Friedl-Vallon, Felix; Ruhnke, Roland; Woiwode, Wolfgang; Oelhaf, Hermann; Braesicke, Peter

2017-04-01

The Arctic winter 2015/2016 has been one of the coldest stratospheric winters in recent years. A stable vortex formed already in early December and the early winter has been exceptionally cold. Cold pool temperatures dropped below the Nitric Acid Trihydrate (NAT) existence temperature, thus allowing Polar Stratospheric Clouds (PSCs) to form. The low temperatures in the polar stratosphere persisted until early March allowing chlorine activation and catalytic ozone destruction. Satellite observations indicate that sedimentation of PSC particles have led to denitrification as well as dehydration of stratospheric layers. Nudged model simulations of the Arctic winter 2015/2016 were performed with the atmospheric chemistry-climate model ECHAM5/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) for the POLSTRACC (Polar Stratosphere in a Changing Climate) campaign. POLSTRACC was a HALO mission (High Altitude and LOng Range Research Aircraft) aiming on the investigation of the structure, composition and evolution of the Arctic Upper Troposphere Lower Stratosphere (UTLS). The chemical and physical processes involved in Arctic stratospheric ozone depletion, transport and mixing processes in the UTLS at high latitudes, polar stratospheric clouds as well as cirrus clouds were investigated. In this presentation, an overview of the chemistry and dynamics of the Arctic winter 2015/2016 as simulated with EMAC will be given. Chemical-dynamical processes such as denitrification, dehydration and ozone loss will be investigated. Comparisons to satellite observations by the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (Aura/MLS) as well as to airborne measurements with the Gimballed Limb Observer for Radiance Imaging of the Atmosphere (GLORIA) performed onboard of HALO during the POLSTRACC campaign show that the EMAC simulations are in good agreement with observations (differences generally within ±20%). However, larger differences between model and simulations are found e.g. in the areas of denitrification. Both, model simulations and observation show that in 2015/2016 ozone loss was quite strong, but not as strong as in 2010/2011 while denitrification and dehydration were so far the strongest in the Arctic stratosphere.

Changes of Mediterranean cyclones in the future climate employing high resolution climate simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hatzaki, M.; Flocas, H. A.; Kouroutzoglou, J.; Keay, K.; Simmonds, I.; Giannakopoulos, C. A.; Brikolas, V.

2011-12-01

A number of studies suggest that cyclone activity over both hemispheres has changed over the second half of the 20th century. The assessment of the future changes of the cyclonic activity as imposed by global warming conditions is very important since these cyclones can be associated with extreme precipitation conditions, severe storms and floods. This is more important for the Mediterranean that has been found to be more vulnerable to climate change. The main objective of the current study is to better understand and assess future changes in the main characteristics of Mediterranean cyclones, including temporal and spatial variations of frequency of cyclonic tracks, and dynamic and kinematic parameters, such as intensity, size, propagation velocity, as well as trend analysis. For this purpose, the MPI-HH regional coupled climate model of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology is employed consisting of the REgional atmosphere MOdel (REMO), the Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology ocean model (MPI-OM) and the Hydrological Discharge Model (HD Model). A 25 km resolution domain is established on a rotated latitude-longitude coordinate system, while the physical parameterizations are taken from the global climate model ECHAM-4. These model data became available through the EU Project CIRCE which aims to perform, for the first time, climate change projections with a realistic representation of the Mediterranean Sea. The model results for the present climate are evaluated against ERA-40 Reanalysis (available through ECMWF), for the period 1962-2001. The identification and tracking of cyclones is performed with the aid of the Melbourne University algorithm (MS algorithm), according to the Lagrangian perspective. MS algorithm characterizes a cyclone only if a vorticity maximum could be connected with a local pressure minimum. According to the results, a decrease of the storm number and a tendency towards deeper cyclones is expected in the future, in general agreement with the results of previous studies. However, new findings reveal with respect to the dynamic/kinematic characteristics of the cyclonic tracks. The model experiments verify that considerable inter-monthly variations of track density occur in the Mediterranean region. The study of the kinematic and dynamic parameters of the cyclonic tracks according to their origin domain show that the vast majority originate within the examined area itself. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS: M. Hatzaki would like to thank the Greek State Scholarships Foundation for financial support through the program of postdoctoral research. The support of EU-FP6 project CIRCE Integrated Project-Climate Change and Impact Research: the Mediterranean Environment (http://www.circeproject.eu) for climate model data provision is also greatly acknowledged.

Interannual tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies teleconnection to Northern Hemisphere atmosphere in November

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

King, Martin P.; Herceg-Bulić, Ivana; Kucharski, Fred; Keenlyside, Noel

2018-03-01

We investigate the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation anomalies associated to the sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies that are related to the eastern-Pacific and central-Pacific El Nino-Southern Oscillations in the late autumn (November). This research is motivated by the need for improving understanding of the autumn climate conditions which can impact on winter climate, as well as the relative lack of study on the boreal autumn climate processes compared to winter. Using reanalysis and SST datasets available from the late nineteenth century through the recent years, we found that there are two major atmospheric responses; one is a hemispheric-wide wave number-4 pattern, another has a more annular pattern. Both of these project on the East Atlantic pattern (southward-shifted North Atlantic Oscillation) in the Atlantic sector. Which of the patterns is active is suggested to depend on the background mean flow, with the annular anomaly active in the most recent decades, while the wave-4 pattern in the decades before. This switch is associated with a change of correlation sign in the North Pacific. We discuss the robustness of this finding. The ability of two atmospheric general circulation models (ICTP-AGCM and ECHAM-AGCM) to reproduce the teleconnections is also examined. Evidence provided shows that the wave-4 pattern and the East Atlantic pattern signals can be reproduced by the models, while the shift from this to an annular response for the recent years is not found conclusively.

Projection of North Atlantic Oscillation and its effect on tracer transport

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bacer, Sara; Christoudias, Theodoros; Pozzer, Andrea

2016-12-01

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) plays an important role in the climate variability of the Northern Hemisphere, with significant consequences on long-range pollutant transport. We investigate the evolution of pollutant transport in the 21st century influenced by the NAO under a global climate change scenario. We use a free-running simulation performed by the ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) model coupled with the ocean general circulation model MPIOM, covering the period from 1950 until 2100. Similarly to other works, the model shows a future northeastward shift of the NAO centres of action and a weak positive trend of the NAO index (over 150 years). Moreover, we find that NAO trends (computed over periods shorter than 30 years) will continue to oscillate between positive and negative values in the future. To investigate the NAO effects on transport we consider carbon monoxide tracers with exponential decay and constant interannual emissions. We find that at the end of the century, the south-western Mediterranean and northern Africa will, during positive NAO phases, see higher pollutant concentrations with respect to the past, while a wider part of northern Europe will, during positive NAO phases, see lower pollutant concentrations. Such results are confirmed by the changes observed in the future for tracer concentration and vertically integrated tracer transport, differentiating the cases of "high NAO" and "low NAO" events.

A model approach to project the start of egg laying of Great Tit (Parus major L.) in response to climate change.

PubMed

Chmielewski, Frank-M; Blümel, Klaus; Scherbaum-Heberer, Carina; Koppmann-Rumpf, Bettina; Schmidt, Karl-Heinz

2013-03-01

The aim of this study was to select a phenological model that is able to calculate the beginning of egg laying of Great Tit (Parus major) for both current and future climate conditions. Four models (M1-M4) were optimised on long-term phenological observations from the Ecological Research Centre Schlüchtern (Hessen/Germany). Model M1 was a common thermal time model that accumulates growing degree days (GDD) on an optimised starting date t (1). Since egg laying of Great Tit is influenced not only by air temperature but also by photoperiod, model M1 was extended by a daylength term to give M2. The other two models, M3 and M4, correspond to M1 and M2, but t (1) was intentionally set to 1 January, in order to consider already rising temperatures at the beginning of the year. A comparison of the four models led to following results: model M1 had a relatively high root mean square error at verification (RMSE(ver)) of more than 4 days and can be used only to calculate the start of egg laying for current climate conditions because of the relatively late starting date for GDD calculation. The model failed completely if the starting date was set to 1 January (M3). Consideration of a daylength term in models M2 and M4 improved the performance of both models strongly (RMSE(ver) of only 3 days or less), increased the credibility of parameter estimation, and was a precondition to calculate reliable projections in the timing of egg laying in birds for the future. These results confirm that the start of egg laying of Great Tit is influenced not only by air temperature, but also by photoperiod. Although models M2 and M4 both provide comparably good results for current climate conditions, we recommend model M4-with a starting date of temperature accumulation on 1 January-for calculating possible future shifts in the commencement of egg laying. Our regional projections in the start of egg laying, based on five regional climate models (RCMs: REMO-UBA, ECHAM5-CLM, HadCM3-CLM, WETTREG-0, WETTREG-1, GHG emission scenario A1B), indicate that in the near future (2011-2040) no significant change will take place. However, in the mid- (2041-2070) and long-term (2071-2100) range the beginning of egg laying could be advanced significantly by up to 11 days on average of all five RCMs. This result corresponds to the already observed shift in the timing of egg laying by about 1 week, due mainly to an abrupt increase in air temperature at the end of the 1980s by 1.2 K between April and May. The use of five regional climate scenarios additionally allowed to estimate uncertainties among the RCMs.

Assessing the Impacts of Atmospheric Conditions under Climate Change on Air Quality Profile over Hong Kong

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hei Tong, Cheuk

2017-04-01

Small particulates can cause long term impairment to human health as they can penetrate deep and deposit on the wall of the respiratory system. Under the projected climate change as reported by literature, atmospheric stability, which has strong effects on vertical mixing of air pollutants and thus air quality Hong Kong, is also varying from near to far future. In addition to domestic emission, Hong Kong receives also significant concentration of cross-boundary particulates that their natures and movements are correlated with atmospheric condition. This study aims to study the relation of atmospheric conditions with air quality over Hong Kong. Past meteorological data is based on Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) reanalysis data. Radiosonde data provided from HKO are also adopted in testing and validating the data. Future meteorological data is simulated by the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF), which dynamically downscaled the past and future climate under the A1B scenario simulated by ECHAM5/MPIOM. Air quality data is collected on one hand from the ground station data provided by Environment Protection Department, with selected stations revealing local emission and trans-boundary emission respectively. On the other hand, an Atmospheric Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR), which operates using the radar principle to detect Rayleigh and Mie scattering from atmospheric gas and aerosols, has also been adopted to measure vertical aerosol profile, which has been observed tightly related to the high level meteorology. Data from scattered signals are collected, averaged or some episode selected for characteristic comparison with the atmospheric stability indices and other meteorological factors. The relation between atmospheric conditions and air quality is observed by statistical analysis, and statistical models are built based on the stability indices to project the changes in sulphur dioxide, ozone and particulate matters due to changes in stability in future years.

Predicting and attributing recent East African Spring droughts with dynamical-statistical climate model ensembles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Funk, C. C.; Shukla, S.; Hoerling, M. P.; Robertson, F. R.; Hoell, A.; Liebmann, B.

2013-12-01

During boreal spring, eastern portions of Kenya and Somalia have experienced more frequent droughts since 1999. Given the region's high levels of food insecurity, better predictions of these droughts could provide substantial humanitarian benefits. We show that dynamical-statistical seasonal climate forecasts, based on the latest generation of coupled atmosphere-ocean and uncoupled atmospheric models, effectively predict boreal spring rainfall in this area. Skill sources are assessed by comparing ensembles driven with full-ocean forcing with ensembles driven with ENSO-only sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Our analysis suggests that both ENSO and non-ENSO Indo-Pacific SST forcing have played an important role in the increase in drought frequencies. Over the past 30 years, La Niña drought teleconnections have strengthened, while non-ENSO Indo-Pacific convection patterns have also supported increased (decreased) Western Pacific (East African) rainfall. To further examine the relative contribution of ENSO, low frequency warming and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, we present decompositions of ECHAM5, GFS, CAM4 and GMAO AMIP simulations. These decompositions suggest that rapid warming in the western Pacific and steeper western-to-central Pacific SST gradients have likely played an important role in the recent intensification of the Walker circulation, and the associated increase in East African aridity. A linear combination of time series describing the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the strength of Indo-Pacific warming are shown to track East African rainfall reasonably well. The talk concludes with a few thoughts linking the potentially important interplay of attribution and prediction. At least for recent East African droughts, it appears that a characteristic Indo-Pacific SST and precipitation anomaly pattern can be linked statistically to support forecasts and attribution analyses. The combination of traditional AGCM attribution analyses with simple yet physically plausible statistical estimation procedures may help us better untangle some climate mysteries.

Extreme weather events in southern Germany - Climatological risk and development of a large-scale identification procedure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matthies, A.; Leckebusch, G. C.; Rohlfing, G.; Ulbrich, U.

2009-04-01

Extreme weather events such as thunderstorms, hail and heavy rain or snowfall can pose a threat to human life and to considerable tangible assets. Yet there is a lack of knowledge about present day climatological risk and its economic effects, and its changes due to rising greenhouse gas concentrations. Therefore, parts of economy particularly sensitve to extreme weather events such as insurance companies and airports require regional risk-analyses, early warning and prediction systems to cope with such events. Such an attempt is made for southern Germany, in close cooperation with stakeholders. Comparing ERA40 and station data with impact records of Munich Re and Munich Airport, the 90th percentile was found to be a suitable threshold for extreme impact relevant precipitation events. Different methods for the classification of causing synoptic situations have been tested on ERA40 reanalyses. An objective scheme for the classification of Lamb's circulation weather types (CWT's) has proved to be most suitable for correct classification of the large-scale flow conditions. Certain CWT's have been turned out to be prone to heavy precipitation or on the other side to have a very low risk of such events. Other large-scale parameters are tested in connection with CWT's to find out a combination that has the highest skill to identify extreme precipitation events in climate model data (ECHAM5 and CLM). For example vorticity advection in 700 hPa shows good results, but assumes knowledge of regional orographic particularities. Therefore ongoing work is focused on additional testing of parameters that indicate deviations of a basic state of the atmosphere like the Eady Growth Rate or the newly developed Dynamic State Index. Evaluation results will be used to estimate the skill of the regional climate model CLM concerning the simulation of frequency and intensity of the extreme weather events. Data of the A1B scenario (2000-2050) will be examined for a possible climate change signal.

Estimating the uncertainty of the impact of climate change on alluvial aquifers. Case study in central Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Romano, Emanuele; Camici, Stefania; Brocca, Luca; Moramarco, Tommaso; Pica, Federico; Preziosi, Elisabetta

2014-05-01

There is evidence that the precipitation pattern in Europe is trending towards more humid conditions in the northern region and drier conditions in the southern and central-eastern regions. However, a great deal of uncertainty concerns how the changes in precipitations will have an impact on water resources, particularly on groundwater, and this uncertainty should be evaluated on the basis of that coming from 1) future climate scenarios of Global Circulation Models (GCMs) and 2) modeling chains including the downscaling technique, the infiltration model and the calibration/validation procedure used to develop the groundwater flow model. With the aim of quantifying the uncertainty of these components, the Valle Umbra porous aquifer (Central Italy) has been considered as a case study. This aquifer, that is exploited for human consumption and irrigation, is mainly fed by the effective infiltration from the ground surface and partly by the inflow from the carbonate aquifers bordering the valley. A numerical groundwater flow model has been developed through the finite difference MODFLOW2005 code and it has been calibrated and validated considering the recharge regime computed through a Thornthwaite-Mather infiltration model under the climate conditions observed in the period 1956-2012. Future scenarios (2010-2070) of temperature and precipitation have been obtained from three different GMCs: ECHAM-5 (Max Planck Institute, Germany), PCM (National Centre Atmospheric Research) and CCSM3 (National Centre Atmospheric Research). Each scenario has been downscaled (DSC) to the data of temperature and precipitation collected in the baseline period 1960-1990 at the stations located in the study area through two different statistical techniques (linear rescaling and quantile mapping). Then, stochastic rainfall and temperature time series are generated through the Neyman-Scott Rectangular Pulses model (NSRP) for precipitation and the Fractionally Differenced ARIMA model (FARIMA) for temperature. Such a procedure has allowed to estimate, through the Thornthwaite-Mather model, the uncertainty related to the future scenarios of recharge to the aquifer. Finally, all the scenarios of recharge have been used as input to the groundwater flow model and the results have been evaluated in terms of the uncertainty on the computed aquifer heads and total budget. The main results have indicated that most of the uncertainty on the impact to the aquifer arise from the uncertainty on the first part of the processing chain GCM-DSC.

The global aerosol-climate model ECHAM-HAM, version 2: sensitivity to improvements in process representations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, K.; O'Donnell, D.; Kazil, J.; Stier, P.; Kinne, S.; Lohmann, U.; Ferrachat, S.; Croft, B.; Quaas, J.; Wan, H.; Rast, S.; Feichter, J.

2012-10-01

This paper introduces and evaluates the second version of the global aerosol-climate model ECHAM-HAM. Major changes have been brought into the model, including new parameterizations for aerosol nucleation and water uptake, an explicit treatment of secondary organic aerosols, modified emission calculations for sea salt and mineral dust, the coupling of aerosol microphysics to a two-moment stratiform cloud microphysics scheme, and alternative wet scavenging parameterizations. These revisions extend the model's capability to represent details of the aerosol lifecycle and its interaction with climate. Nudged simulations of the year 2000 are carried out to compare the aerosol properties and global distribution in HAM1 and HAM2, and to evaluate them against various observations. Sensitivity experiments are performed to help identify the impact of each individual update in model formulation. Results indicate that from HAM1 to HAM2 there is a marked weakening of aerosol water uptake in the lower troposphere, reducing the total aerosol water burden from 75 Tg to 51 Tg. The main reason is the newly introduced κ-Köhler-theory-based water uptake scheme uses a lower value for the maximum relative humidity cutoff. Particulate organic matter loading in HAM2 is considerably higher in the upper troposphere, because the explicit treatment of secondary organic aerosols allows highly volatile oxidation products of the precursors to be vertically transported to regions of very low temperature and to form aerosols there. Sulfate, black carbon, particulate organic matter and mineral dust in HAM2 have longer lifetimes than in HAM1 because of weaker in-cloud scavenging, which is in turn related to lower autoconversion efficiency in the newly introduced two-moment cloud microphysics scheme. Modification in the sea salt emission scheme causes a significant increase in the ratio (from 1.6 to 7.7) between accumulation mode and coarse mode emission fluxes of aerosol number concentration. This leads to a general increase in the number concentration of smaller particles over the oceans in HAM2, as reflected by the higher Ångström parameters. Evaluation against observation reveals that in terms of model performance, main improvements in HAM2 include a marked decrease of the systematic negative bias in the absorption aerosol optical depth, as well as smaller biases over the oceans in Ångström parameter and in the accumulation mode number concentration. The simulated geographical distribution of aerosol optical depth (AOD) is better correlated with the MODIS data, while the surface aerosol mass concentrations are very similar to those in the old version. The total aerosol water content in HAM2 is considerably closer to the multi-model average from Phase I of the AeroCom intercomparison project. Model deficiencies that require further efforts in the future include (i) positive biases in AOD over the ocean, (ii) negative biases in AOD and aerosol mass concentration in high-latitude regions, and (iii) negative biases in particle number concentration, especially that of the Aitken mode, in the lower troposphere in heavily polluted regions.

Risk Assessment of Hurricane Storm Surge for Tampa Bay

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, N.; Emanuel, K.

2011-12-01

Hurricane storm surge presents a major hazard for the United States and many other coastal areas around the world. Risk assessment of current and future hurricane storm surge provides the basis for risk mitigation and related decision making. This study investigates the hurricane surge risk for Tampa Bay, located on the central west coast of Florida. Although fewer storms have made landfall in the central west Florida than in regions farther west in the Gulf of Mexico and the east coast of U.S., Tampa Bay is highly vulnerable to storm surge due to its geophysical features. It is surrounded by low-lying lands, much of which may be inundated by a storm tide of 6 m. Also, edge waves trapped on the west Florida shelf can propagate along the coastline and affect the sea level outside the area of a forced storm surge; Tampa Bay may be affected by storms traversing some distance outside the Bay. Moreover, when the propagation speed of the edge wave is close to that of a storm moving parallel to the coast, resonance may occur and the water elevation in the Bay may be greatly enhanced. Therefore, Tampa Bay is vulnerable to storms with a broad spectrum of characteristics. We apply a model-based risk assessment method to carry out the investigation. To estimate the current surge risk, we apply a statistical/deterministic hurricane model to generate a set of 1500 storms for the Tampa area, under the observed current climate (represented by 1981-2000 statistics) estimated from the NCAR/NCEP reanalysis. To study the effect of climate change, we use four climate models, CNRM-CM3, ECHAM, GFDL-CM2.0, and MIROC3.2, respectively, to drive the hurricane model to generate four sets of 1500 Tampa storms under current climate conditions (represented by 1981-2000 statistics) and another four under future climate conditions of the IPCC-AR4 A1B emission scenario (represented by 2081-2100 statistics). Then, we apply two hydrodynamic models, the Advanced Circulation (ADCIRC) model and the Sea, Lake, and Overland Surges from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model with grids of various resolutions to simulate the surges induced by the synthetic storms. The surge risk under each of the climate scenarios is depicted by a surge return level curve (exceedance probability curve). For the city of Tampa, the heights of the 100-year, 500-year, and 1000-year surges under the current climate are estimated to be 3.85, 5.66, and 6.31 m, respectively. Two of the four climate models predict that surge return periods will be significantly shortened in the future climates due to the change of storm climatology; the current 100-year surge may happen every 50 years or less, the 500-year surge every 200 years or less, and the 1000-year surge every 300 years or less. The other two climate models predict that the surge return periods will become moderately shorter or remain almost unchanged in the future climates. Extreme surges up to 12 m at Tampa appear in our simulations. Although occurring with very small probabilities, these extreme surges would have a devastating impact on the Tampa Bay area. By examining the generated synthetic surge database, we study the characteristics of the extreme storms at Tampa Bay, especially for the storms that may interact with edge waves along the Florida west coast.

Influence of enhanced Asian NOx emissions on ozone in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere in chemistry-climate model simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roy, Chaitri; Fadnavis, Suvarna; Müller, Rolf; Ayantika, D. C.; Ploeger, Felix; Rap, Alexandru

2017-01-01

The Asian summer monsoon (ASM) anticyclone is the most pronounced circulation pattern in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) during northern hemispheric summer. ASM convection plays an important role in efficient vertical transport from the surface to the upper-level anticyclone. In this paper we investigate the potential impact of enhanced anthropogenic nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions on the distribution of ozone in the UTLS using the fully coupled aerosol-chemistry-climate model, ECHAM5-HAMMOZ. Ozone in the UTLS is influenced both by the convective uplift of ozone precursors and by the uplift of enhanced-NOx-induced tropospheric ozone anomalies. We performed anthropogenic NOx emission sensitivity experiments over India and China. In these simulations, covering the years 2000-2010, anthropogenic NOx emissions have been increased by 38 % over India and by 73 % over China with respect to the emission base year 2000. These emission increases are comparable to the observed linear trends of 3.8 % per year over India and 7.3 % per year over China during the period 2000 to 2010. Enhanced NOx emissions over India by 38 % and China by 73 % increase the ozone radiative forcing in the ASM anticyclone (15-40° N, 60-120° E) by 16.3 and 78.5 mW m-2 respectively. These elevated NOx emissions produce significant warming over the Tibetan Plateau and increase precipitation over India due to a strengthening of the monsoon Hadley circulation. However, increase in NOx emissions over India by 73 % (similar to the observed increase over China) results in large ozone production over the Indo-Gangetic Plain and Tibetan Plateau. The higher ozone concentrations, in turn, induce a reversed monsoon Hadley circulation and negative precipitation anomalies over India. The associated subsidence suppresses vertical transport of NOx and ozone into the ASM anticyclone.

Water Isotopes in Precipitation: Data/Model Comparison for Present-Day and Past Climates

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jouzel, J.; Hoffmann, G.; Masson, V.

1998-01-01

Variations of HDO and H2O-18 concentrations are observed in precipitation both on a geographical and on a temporal basis. These variations, resulting from successive isotopic fractionation processes at each phase change of water during its atmospheric cycle, are well documented through the IAEA/WMO network and other sources. Isotope concentrations are, in middle and high latitudes, linearly related to the annual mean temperature at the precipitation site. Paleoclimatologists have used this relationship to infer paleotemperatures from isotope paleodata extractable from ice cores, deep groundwater and other such sources. For this application to be valid, however, the spatial relationship must also hold in time at a given location as the location undergoes a series of climatic changes. Progress in water isotope modeling aimed at examining and evaluating this assumption has been recently reviewed with a focus on polar regions and, more specifically, on Greenland. This article was largely based on the results obtained using the isotopic version of the NASA/GISS Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) fitted with isotope tracer diagnostics. We extend this review in comparing the results of two different isotopic AGCMs (NASA/GISS and ECHAM) and in examining, with a more global perspective, the validity of the above assumption, i.e. the equivalence of the spatial and temporal isotope-temperature relationship. We also examine recent progress made in modeling the relationship between the conditions prevailing in moisture source regions for precipitation and the deuterium-excess of that precipitation.

Decomposition of Sources of Errors in Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts in a Rainfall-Runoff Dominated Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sinha, T.; Arumugam, S.

2012-12-01

Seasonal streamflow forecasts contingent on climate forecasts can be effectively utilized in updating water management plans and optimize generation of hydroelectric power. Streamflow in the rainfall-runoff dominated basins critically depend on forecasted precipitation in contrast to snow dominated basins, where initial hydrological conditions (IHCs) are more important. Since precipitation forecasts from Atmosphere-Ocean-General Circulation Models are available at coarse scale (~2.8° by 2.8°), spatial and temporal downscaling of such forecasts are required to implement land surface models, which typically runs on finer spatial and temporal scales. Consequently, multiple sources are introduced at various stages in predicting seasonal streamflow. Therefore, in this study, we addresses the following science questions: 1) How do we attribute the errors in monthly streamflow forecasts to various sources - (i) model errors, (ii) spatio-temporal downscaling, (iii) imprecise initial conditions, iv) no forecasts, and (iv) imprecise forecasts? and 2) How does monthly streamflow forecast errors propagate with different lead time over various seasons? In this study, the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model is calibrated over Apalachicola River at Chattahoochee, FL in the southeastern US and implemented with observed 1/8° daily forcings to estimate reference streamflow during 1981 to 2010. The VIC model is then forced with different schemes under updated IHCs prior to forecasting period to estimate relative mean square errors due to: a) temporally disaggregation, b) spatial downscaling, c) Reverse Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (imprecise IHCs), d) ESP (no forecasts), and e) ECHAM4.5 precipitation forecasts. Finally, error propagation under different schemes are analyzed with different lead time over different seasons.

Contribution of different PSC types to Arctic ozone depletion caused by chlorine activation and denitrification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kirner, Oliver; Khosrawi, Farah; Müller, Rolf; Weimer, Michael; Ruhnke, Roland

2017-04-01

Heterogeneous reactions on the surfaces of PSC particles and denitrification of the stratosphere are the cause for polar ozone depletion in spring. In a former study we investigated the impact of different types of PSCs on Antarctic ozone depletion with the help of the chemistry-climate model ECHAM5/MESSy Atmospheric chemistry (EMAC). In this study, we investigate the impact of PSCs on Arctic ozone loss. One standard and four sensitivity EMAC simulations (nudged with ERA-Interim) have been performed to evaluate the contribution of liquid, NAT and ice particles to ozone depletion in the Arctic winters 2010/2011 and 2015/2016 due to chlorine activation by heterogeneous chemistry on their surfaces and due to denitrification of the stratosphere. In the first three sensitivity simulations, we changed the heterogeneous chemistry on PSC particles by switching on and off the chemistry on liquid, NAT and ice particles. One further sensitivity simulation without NAT formation (only liquid and ice particles) was performed to evaluate the contribution of NAT to Arctic ozone depletion due to denitrification of the stratosphere. With the help of these different EMAC simulations, we will show the significance of liquid, NAT and ice particles to Arctic ozone depletion caused by chlorine activation and denitrification.

Regional Climate Change Hotspots over Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anber, U.

2009-04-01

Regional Climate Change Index (RCCI), is developed based on regional mean precipitation change, mean surface air temperature change, and change in precipitation and temperature interannual variability. The RCCI is a comparative index designed to identify the most responsive regions to climate change, or Hot- Spots. The RCCI is calculated for Seven land regions over North Africa and Arabian region from the latest set of climate change projections by 14 global climates for the A1B, A2 and B1 IPCC emission scenarios. The concept of climate change can be approaches from the viewpoint of vulnerability or from that of climate response. In the former case a Hot-Spot can be defined as a region for which potential climate change impacts on the environment or different activity sectors can be particularly pronounced. In the other case, a Hot-Spot can be defined as a region whose climate is especially responsive to global change. In particular, the characterization of climate change response-based Hot-Spot can provide key information to identify and investigate climate change Hot-Spots based on results from multi-model ensemble of climate change simulations performed by modeling groups from around the world as contributions to the Assessment Report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). A Regional Climate Change Index (RCCI) is defined based on four variables: change in regional mean surface air temperature relative to the global average temperature change ( or Regional Warming Amplification Factor, RWAF ), change in mean regional precipitation ( , of present day value ), change in regional surface air temperature interannual variability ( ,of present day value), change in regional precipitation interannual variability ( , of present day value ). In the definition of the RCCI it is important to include quantities other than mean change because often mean changes are not the only important factors for specific impacts. We thus also include inter annual variability, which is critical for many activity sectors, such as agriculture and water management. The RCCI is calculated for the above mentioned set of global climate change simulations and is inter compared across regions to identify climate change, Hot- Spots, that is regions with the largest values of RCCI. It is important to stress that, as will be seen, the RCCI is a comparative index, that is a small RCCI value does not imply a small absolute change, but only a small climate response compared to other regions. The models used are: CCMA-3-T47 CNRM-CM3 CSIRO-MK3 GFDL-CM2-0 GISS-ER INMCM3 IPSL-CM4 MIROC3-2M MIUB-ECHO-G MPI-ECHAM5 MRI-CGCM2 NCAR-CCSM3 NCAR-PCM1 UKMO-HADCM3 Note that the 3 IPCC emission scenarios, A1B, B1 and A2 almost encompass the entire IPCC scenario range, the A2 being close to the high end of the range, the B1 close to the low end and the A1B lying toward the middle of the range. The model data are obtained from the IPCC site and are interpolated onto a common 1 degree grid to facilitate intercomparison. The RCCI is here defined as in Giorgi (2006), except that the entire yea is devided into two six months periods, D J F M A M and J J A S O N. RCCI=[n(∆P)＋n(∆σP)+n(RWAF)+n(∆σT)]D...M + [n(∆P)＋n(∆σP)+n(RWAF)+n(∆σT)]J…N (1)

The impact of Tibet and the Andes on the climate and isotopic composition of precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Battisti, D. S.; Ding, Q.; Liu, X.; Roe, G.

2012-12-01

We summarize modeling and theoretical evidence for the impact of the high topography in Tibet and the Andes on the climate and the isotopic (δ18O) composition of precipitation, regionally and globally. Tibet controls the seasonal cycle of precipitation over eastern China, mainly via dynamical processes, and has little to no impact on the Indian and southeast Asian monsoons. Tibet is also responsible for the northwesterly winds and extraordinary cold winters in northern China, and contributes to the mid-winter suppression of storminess in the western and central Pacific. The Andes greatly shape the climatological precipitation over South America, and are an important contributor to the annual cycle in sea surface temperature, precipitation and atmospheric circulation throughout the eastern half of the tropical Pacific. We have performed a series of numerical experiments with the isotope-enabled ECHAM 4.6 atmospheric general circulation model to illuminate the impact of the Andes and Tibet on the regional distribution of oxygen isotopes in precipitation. Experiments to be discussed include a world without an elevated Andes circa 12 million years BP, and a series of experiments that prescribed a plausible evolution of the continental geometry and topography for the past 50 million years in and around the Indian Ocean basin. In the latter case, additional idealized experiments are performed to illuminate the separate impacts of topography and continental configuration.

High Frequency Chandler Wobble Excitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seitz, F.; Stuck, J.; Thomas, M.

2003-04-01

Variations of Earth rotation on sub-daily to secular timescales are caused by mass redistributions in the Earth system as a consequence of geophysical processes and gravitational influences. Forced oscillations of polar motion are superposed by free oscillations of the Earth, i.e. the Chandler wobble and the free core nutation. In order to study the interactions between externally induced polar motion and the Earth's free oscillations, a non-linear gyroscopic model has been developed. In most of the former investigations on polar motion, the Chandler wobble is introduced as a damped oscillation with predetermined frequency and amplitude. However, as the effect of rotational deformation is a backcoupling mechanism of polar motion on the Earth's rotational dynamics, both period and amplitude of the Chandler wobble are time-dependent when regarding additional excitations from, e.g., atmospheric or oceanic mass redistributions. The gyroscopic model is free of any explicit information concerning amplitude, phase, and period of free oscillations. The characteristics of the Earth's free oscillation is reproduced by the model from rheological and geometrical parameters and rotational deformation is taken into account. This enables to study the time variable Chandler oscillation when the gyro is forced with atmospheric and oceanic angular momentum from the global atmospheric ECHAM3-T21 general circulation model together with the ocean model for circulation and tides OMCT driven by ECHAM including surface pressure. Besides, mass redistributions in the Earth's body due to gravitational and loading deformations are regarded and external torques exerted by Moon and Sun are considered. The numerical results of the gyro are significantly related with the geodetically observed time series of polar motion published by the IERS. It is shown that the consistent excitation is capable to counteract the damping and thus to maintain the Chandler amplitude. Spectral analyses of the ECHAM and OMCT forcing fields give no hint for increased excitation power in the Chandler band. Thus it is assumed, that continuous high frequency excitation due to stochastic weather phenomena is responsible for the perpetuation of the Chandler wobble.

Projected SST trends across the Caribbean Sea based on PRECIS downscaling of ECHAM4, under the SRES A2 and B2 scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nurse, Leonard A.; Charlery, John L.

2016-01-01

The Caribbean Sea and adjacent land areas are highly sensitive to the projected impacts of global climate change. The countries bordering the Caribbean Sea depend heavily on coastal and marine assets as a major source of livelihood support. Rising sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are known to be associated with coral bleaching, ocean acidification, and other phenomena that threaten livelihoods in the region. The paucity of SST systematic observations in both the Caribbean Sea and adjoining Western Atlantic waters is a limiting factor in the projection of future climate change impacts on the region's marine resources. Remote sensing of SST by satellites began only within the last three decades and although the data collected so far might be insufficient to provide conclusive definitions of long-term SST variations in the Caribbean waters, these data along with the output from climate model simulations provide a useful basis for gaining further insights into plausible SST futures under IPCC SRES scenarios. In this paper, we examine the recent SST records from the NESDIS AVHRR satellite data and NOAA Optimum Interpolation (OI) sea surface temperature V2 and provide a comparative analysis of projected SST changes for the Caribbean Sea up to the end of the twenty-first century, under the SRES A2 and B2 scenarios' simulations of the sea surface skin temperatures (SSsT) using the Hadley Centre's regional model, PRECIS. The implications of these projected SST changes for bleaching of coral reefs, one of the region's most valuable marine resource, and for rainfall are also discussed.

Climate change impact and potential adaptation strategies under alternate realizations of climate scenarios for three major crops in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Donatelli, Marcello; Srivastava, Amit Kumar; Duveiller, Gregory; Niemeyer, Stefan; Fumagalli, Davide

2015-07-01

This study presents an estimate of the effects of climate variables and CO2 on three major crops, namely wheat, rapeseed and sunflower, in EU27 Member States. We also investigated some technical adaptation options which could offset climate change impacts. The time-slices 2000, 2020 and 2030 were chosen to represent the baseline and future climate, respectively. Furthermore, two realizations within the A1B emission scenario proposed by the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES), from the ECHAM5 and HadCM3 GCM, were selected. A time series of 30 years for each GCM and time slice were used as input weather data for simulation. The time series were generated with a stochastic weather generator trained over GCM-RCM time series (downscaled simulations from the ENSEMBLES project which were statistically bias-corrected prior to the use of the weather generator). GCM-RCM simulations differed primarily for rainfall patterns across Europe, whereas the temperature increase was similar in the time horizons considered. Simulations based on the model CropSyst v. 3 were used to estimate crop responses; CropSyst was re-implemented in the modelling framework BioMA. The results presented in this paper refer to abstraction of crop growth with respect to its production system, and consider growth as limited by weather and soil water. How crop growth responds to CO2 concentrations; pests, diseases, and nutrients limitations were not accounted for in simulations. The results show primarily that different realization of the emission scenario lead to noticeably different crop performance projections in the same time slice. Simple adaptation techniques such as changing sowing dates and the use of different varieties, the latter in terms of duration of the crop cycle, may be effective in alleviating the adverse effects of climate change in most areas, although response to best adaptation (within the techniques tested) differed across crops. Although a negative impact of climate scenarios is evident in most areas, the combination of rainfall patterns and increased photosynthesis efficiency due to CO2 concentrations showed possible improvements of production patterns in some areas, including Southern Europe. The uncertainty deriving from GCM realizations with respect to rainfall suggests that articulated and detailed testing of adaptation techniques would be redundant. Using ensemble simulations would allow for the identification of areas where adaptation, like those simulated, may be run autonomously by farmers, hence not requiring specific intervention in terms of support policies.

Trend analysis of regional heat wave warning using RegCM simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pongracz, R.; Bartholy, J.; Bartha, E. B.; Torek, O.; Torma, Cs.

2010-09-01

Heat wave events are important temperature-related climatological extremes due to their impacts on human health. In the future, they are very likely to occur more frequently and more intensely not only in the Carpathian Basin, but in most regions of the world because of global warming. In order to develop adaptation and mitigation strategies on local scale, it is essential to analyze the projected changes related to heat waves. In Hungary, three categories of heat wave warning are applied. They are associated to the daily mean temperature values. (i) Warning category 1 is issued when the daily mean temperature is larger than 25 °C. (ii) Warning category 2 is issued when the daily mean temperature for at least 3 consecutive days is larger than 25 °C. (iii) Warning category 3 is issued when the daily mean temperature for at least 3 consecutive days is larger than 27 °C. In this poster, frequency of these conditions are analyzed using regional climate model experiments of model RegCM with 10-km horizontal resolution adapted at the Department of Meteorology, Eotvos Lorand University in the frame of the CECILIA EU-project. The model RegCM is a 3-dimensional, sigma-coordinate, primitive equation model, and it was originally developed by Giorgi et al. Currently, it is available from the ICTP (International Centre for Theoretical Physics). The initial and lateral boundary conditions of the fine-resolution experiments have been provided by the global climate model ECHAM for the A1B emission scenario for three different time slices (1961-1990, 2021-2050, and 2071-2100).

Dynamics of combined forest damage risks for 21st century (SRES A1B, B1)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Panferov, Oleg; Merklein, Johannes; Sogachev, Andrey; Junghans, Udo; Ahrends, Bernd

2010-05-01

The ongoing climate change can result in increasing frequency of weather extremes (Leckebusch et al., 2008) which in turn can produce wide area forest damage (windthrows, droughts, insect attacks) within forest ecosystems in Europe. The probability and extent of damage, depend not only on a strength of a driving force itself but especially on combinations of effecting agents and their interactions with forest ecosystem structure and soil properties. The combined effect of several factors which are not the extremes themselves can lead to the biotic and/or abiotic damage so that the combination becomes an extreme event. As soon as a damage event occurs, the forest structure is changed. The changes in forest structure in their turn strengthen or inhibits the influence of different climatic factors thus increase or decrease the probability of the next damage event creating positive or negative feedbacks. To assess the roles of separate meteorological factors and their combinations in forest damage under present and future climatic conditions the coupled model was created in University of Goettingen, as a part of a Decision Support System (Jansen et al, 2008, Panferov et al., 2009). The model combines the 3D ABL Model SCADIS (Panferov and Sogachev, 2008) with modified soil hydrology model BROOK 90 (Federer, 2003, Ahrends et al. 2009) and the model of climate dependent biotic damage. The projected future developments of forest damage events in 21st Century were carried out under conditions of SRES scenarios A1B and B1; the present conditions were evaluated using the measured data of German Weather Service. Climate scenario data of coupled ECHAM5-MPIOM were downscaled by the regional climate model Climate Local Model (CLM) to the spatial resolution of 0.2° x 0.2° and temporal resolution of 24 hours. Using these data as input the small-scale coupled process based modeling was then carried out for example region of Solling, Germany calculating the water and energy balance of forest ecosystems, wind loading on trees and biotic damage for several tree species and typical soil types. The damage risks a certain forest stand at a given soil results from daily combinations of air and soil temperatures, soil water characteristics, static and gust wind loads on trees with dynamic LAI and of soil texture. Some damaged stands show higher vulnerability and thus - positive feedbacks to climate forcing (Vygodskaya et al., 2007). Therefore, changes of microclimate in remaining stands after changes in forest structure are taken into account. Model output is aggregated to 30-years periods and compared to "present conditions" of 1981-2010. The results show considerable increment of both biotic and abiotic risks towards 2100 relatively to "present" caused by weak changes in precipitation and wind patterns and strong increase of mean air temperature and soil temperatures. It is shown, e.g. that the wind- damage-induced changes of structure and microclimate provide a positive feedback i.e. - increase the probability of the next damage event. The study was financed by BMBF within the frames of joint project "Decision Support System - Forest and Climate Change" (DSS-WuK) and by Grant of Ministry for Science and Culture of Lower Saxony "KLIFF". We gratefully acknowledge this support.

Report on activities and findings under DOE grant “Collaborative research. An Interactive Multi-Model for Consensus on Climate Change”

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Duane, Gregory S.; Tsonis, Anastasios; Kocarev, Ljupco

2015-10-30

The project takes a hierarchical approach. The supermodeling scheme was first studied exhaustively with simple systems of ordinary differential equations. Results were described in detail in the previous report. The principal findings were that 1) for highly non-linear systems, such as Lorenz-63, including systems which describe phenomena on very different (atmosphere/ocean) times scales, supermodeling is far superior to any form of output-averaging; 2) negative coefficients can be used to advantage in situations where all models err in the same way, but to different degrees; 3) an interesting variant of supermodeling, “weighted supermodeling”, is the limiting case where inter-model nudging coefficientsmore » in the originally conceived “connected supermodel” become infinite, but with fixed ratios, corresponding to a direct combination of the tendencies that appear in corresponding equations for the alternative models; 4) noise is useful for avoiding local optima in training the inter-model coefficients in the supermodel. The supermodeling scheme was then investigated with simple quasigeostrophic (QG) models. As described in the previous report, it was found that QG models on a sphere can be coupled most efficaciously by working in a basis which captures the most variance, rather than the most instability, a somewhat unexpected result that still deserves scrutiny in a broader context. Further studies (since the last report) with QG channel models addressed the central question of when supermodeling is superior to output averaging in situations where nonlinearites are less extreme than with the ODEs initially studied. It was found that for realistic variations in a parameter in the QG model, output averaging is sufficient to capture all but the most subtle quantitative and qualitative behavior. Supermodeling helps when qualitative differences between the models result from unrealistically large parameter differences, or when very detailed spatial structure of the modes of variability are of interest. Therefore, the scheme may still be useful in the case of full climate models with qualitatively different parametrization schemes. A supermodel was constructed from the intermediate-complexity SPEEDO model, a primitive equation model with ocean and land. Versions defined by different parameter choices, in a realistic range, were connected and the coefficients trained. Some improvement was found as compared to output averaging. The learning algorithm used thus far gives sub-optimal, but still useful results when the CO 2 level and other parameters are varied. Spatial structure remains to be studied. The first use of supermodeling with full climate models has been with variants of the ECHAM model that use different convection schemes. As yet the models are only connected at the ocean-atmosphere interface, where weighted combinations of fluxes from the two atmospheres are passed to a common ocean, and the weights adapted during a training period. The supermodel was surprisingly successful at avoiding unrealistic features such as the double-ITCZ (Intertropical Convergence Zone), a problem that arises in both of the two models run separately. The supermodels constructed thus far have not identified dynamical regime shifts in future climate. Thus the planned connection with the work of Tsonis on the relationship between regime shifts and synchronization/de-synchronization among the major climate modes (see U. Wisconsin report) has not yet been made. However the network analysis of the climate system, in observations and models, that was done in conjunction with that study, shows that models differ strongly from one another and from observations in regard to the dynamical structure described by correlation networks [Steinhaeuser and Tsonis 2013], providing a further justification for supermodeling. Toward a general software framework for supermodeling, three versions of CAM (the Community Atmosphere Model) at NCAR were configured for inter-model nudging using the DART (Data Assimilation Research Testbed) capability to stop and re-start models in synchrony. It was clearly established that the inter-model nudging adds almost no computational burden to the runs, but there appears to be a problem with the re-initialization software that is still being debugged. Publications: Several papers were published on the basic idea of the interactive multi-model (supermodel) including demonstrations with low-order ODEs. The last of these, a semi-philosophical review paper on the relevance of synchronization generally, encountered considerable resistance but was finally published in Entropy [Duane 2015]. A paper on the ECHAM/COSMOS supermodel, containing the most promising results so far [Shen et al. 2015] is presently under review.« less

NOy and O3 in the Asian Monsoon Anticyclone: Uncertainties associated with the Convection and Lightning in a Global Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pozzer, A.; Ojha, N.; Tost, H.; Joeckel, P.; Fischer, H.; Ziereis, H.; Zahn, A.; Tomsche, L.; Lelieveld, J.

2017-12-01

The impacts of Asian monsoon on the tropospheric chemistry are difficult to simulate in numerical models due to the lack of accurate emission inventories over the Asian region and the strong influence of parameterized processes such as convection and lightning. Further, the lack of observational data over the region during the monsoon period reduce drastically the capability to evaluate numerical models. Here, we combine simulations using the global EMAC (ECHAM5/MESSy2 Atmospheric Chemistry) model with the observational dataset based on the OMO campaign (July-August 2015) to study the tropospheric composition in the Asian monsoon anticyclone. The results of the simulations capture the C-shape of the CO vertical profiles, typically observed during the summer monsoon. The observed spatio-temporal variations in O3, CO, and NOy are reproduced by EMAC, with a better correlation in the upper troposphere (UT). However, the model overestimates NOy and O3 mixing ratios in the anticyclone by 25% and 35%, respectively. A series of numerical experiments showed the strong lightning emissions in the model as the source of this overestimation, with the anthropogenic NOx sources (in Asia) and global soil emissions having lower impact in the UT. A reduction of the lightning NOx emission by 50% leads to a better agreement between the model and OMO observations of NOy and O3. The uncertainties in the lightning emissions are found to considerably influence the OH distribution in the UT over India and downwind. The study reveals existing uncertainties in the estimations of monsoon impact on the tropospheric composition, and highlights the need to constrain numerical simulations with state-of-the-art observations for deriving the budget of trace species of climatic relevance.

Ajustement statistique des simulations climatiques : l'exemple des précipitations saisonnières de l'Amérique tropicaleStatistical adjustment of simulated climate: example of seasonal rainfall of tropical America.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moron, Vincent; Navarra, Antonio

2000-05-01

This study presents the skill of the seasonal rainfall of tropical America from an ensemble of three 34-year general circulation model (ECHAM 4) simulations forced with observed sea surface temperature between 1961 and 1994. The skill gives a first idea of the amount of potential predictability if the sea surface temperatures are perfectly known some time in advance. We use statistical post-processing based on the leading modes (extracted from Singular Value Decomposition of the covariance matrix between observed and simulated rainfall fields) to improve the raw skill obtained by simple comparison between observations and simulations. It is shown that 36-55 % of the observed seasonal variability is explained by the simulations on a regional basis. Skill is greatest for Brazilian Nordeste (March-May), but also for northern South America or the Caribbean basin in June-September or northern Amazonia in September-November for example.

The global impact of the transport sectors on atmospheric aerosol in 2030 - Part 2: Aviation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Righi, Mattia; Hendricks, Johannes; Sausen, Robert

2016-04-01

We use the EMAC (ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry) global climate-chemistry model coupled to the aerosol module MADE (Modal Aerosol Dynamics model for Europe, adapted for global applications) to simulate the impact of aviation emissions on global atmospheric aerosol and climate in 2030. Emissions of short-lived gas and aerosol species follow the four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) designed in support of the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. We compare our findings with the results of a previous study with the same model configuration focusing on year 2000 emissions. We also characterize the aviation results in the context of the other transport sectors presented in a companion paper. In spite of a relevant increase in aviation traffic volume and resulting emissions of aerosol (black carbon) and aerosol precursor species (nitrogen oxides and sulfur dioxide), the aviation effect on particle mass concentration in 2030 remains quite negligible (on the order of a few ng m-3), about 1 order of magnitude less than the increase in concentration due to other emission sources. Due to the relatively small size of the aviation-induced aerosol, however, the increase in particle number concentration is significant in all scenarios (about 1000 cm-3), mostly affecting the northern mid-latitudes at typical flight altitudes (7-12 km). This largely contributes to the overall change in particle number concentration between 2000 and 2030, which also results in significant climate effects due to aerosol-cloud interactions. Aviation is the only transport sector for which a larger impact on the Earth's radiation budget is simulated in the future: the aviation-induced radiative forcing in 2030 is more than doubled with respect to the year 2000 value of -15 mW m-2 in all scenarios, with a maximum value of -63 mW m-2 simulated for RCP2.6.

Spatiotemporal Variability of Mountain Block Recharge in Three Semiarid Watersheds along the U.S.-Mexico Border Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Robles-Morua, A.; Vivoni, E. R.; Mascaro, G.; Dominguez, F.; Rivera-fernandez, E. R.

2015-12-01

Groundwater recharge in semiarid mountains of the western U.S. remains a critical component of the regional water balance and has significant repercussions on water resources management, in particular during periods of drought. The bimodal distribution of annual precipitation in the southwest United States and northwest Mexico present a challenge as differential climate impacts during the winter and summer seasons are not currently well understood. In this work, we focus on the predictions of Mountain Block Recharge (MBR) using precipitation forcing from a reanalysis product, regional climate model-based precipitation products and available ground observations. MBR estimates in the Santa Cruz, San Pedro and Sonora River basins (>40,000 km2) are compared along a north to south gradient crossing the U.S.-Mexico border. As a result of the influence of the North American monsoon, the impact of seasonality in each of these systems is evaluated. Simulated precipitation fields under historical (1991-2000) conditions and climate change (2031-2040 and 2070-2080) scenarios are compared at resolutions of 10-km and 35-km as generated from the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model using boundary conditions from two general circulation models (MPI-ECHAM and HadCM3). Mountain subbasins to apply a seasonal MBR method were delineated using a threshold in terrain slope that matched official boundaries of known aquifers in these transboundary watersheds. We evaluated the MBR outcomes from the various precipitation products to quantify biases involved in the historical estimates and to inform groundwater management on the uncertainties inherent in future projections. We also inspect the variability of MBR across pluvial and drought periods lasting several years. Seasonal comparisons across a north to south spatial gradient yield a valuable assessment on the impacts of climate change on MBR for important basins in the U.S.-Mexico border region.

Implications of Water Budget Deficits on Socio-Economic Stability and Food Security in the Arabian Peninsula and in North Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mazzoni, A.; Heggy, E.; Scabbia, G.

2017-12-01

Water scarcity in the Arabian Peninsula and North Africa is accentuated by forecasted climatic variability, decreasing precipitation volumes and projected population growth, urbanization and economic development, increasing water demand. These factors impose uncertainties on food security and socio-economic stability in the region. We develop a water-budget model combining hydrologic, climatic and economic data to quantify water deficit volumes and groundwater depletion rates for the main aquifer systems in the area, taking into account three different climatic scenarios, and calculated from the precipitation forecast elaborated in the CSIRO, ECHAM4 and HADCM3 global circulation models from 2016 to 2050 over 1-year intervals. Water demand comprises water requirements for each economic sector, derived from data such as population, GDP, cropland cover and electricity production, and is based upon the five different SSPs. Conventional and non-conventional water resource supply data are retrieved from FAO Aquastat and institutional databases. Our results suggest that in the next 35 years, in North Africa, only Egypt and Libya will exhibit severe water deficits with respectively 44% and 89.7% of their current water budgets by 2050 (SSP2-AVG climatic scenario), while all the countries in the Arabian Peninsula will be subjected to water stress; the majority of small-size aquifers in the Arabian Peninsula will reach full depletion by 2050. In North Africa, the fossil aquifers' volume loss will be 1-15% by 2050, and total depletion within 200-300 years. Our study suggests that (1) anthropogenic drivers on water resources are harsher than projected climatic variability; (2) the estimated water deficit will induce substantial rise in domestic food production's costs, causing higher dependency on food imports; and (3) projected water deficits will most strongly impact the nations with the lowest GDPP, namely Egypt, Yemen and Libya.

Polar boundary layer bromine explosion and ozone depletion events in the chemistry-climate model EMAC v2.52: implementation and evaluation of AirSnow algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Falk, Stefanie; Sinnhuber, Björn-Martin

2018-03-01

Ozone depletion events (ODEs) in the polar boundary layer have been observed frequently during springtime. They are related to events of boundary layer enhancement of bromine. Consequently, increased amounts of boundary layer volume mixing ratio (VMR) and vertical column densities (VCDs) of BrO have been observed by in situ observation, ground-based as well as airborne remote sensing, and from satellites. These so-called bromine explosion (BE) events have been discussed serving as a source of tropospheric BrO at high latitudes, which has been underestimated in global models so far. We have implemented a treatment of bromine release and recycling on sea-ice- and snow-covered surfaces in the global chemistry-climate model EMAC (ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry) based on the scheme of Toyota et al. (2011). In this scheme, dry deposition fluxes of HBr, HOBr, and BrNO3 over ice- and snow-covered surfaces are recycled into Br2 fluxes. In addition, dry deposition of O3, dependent on temperature and sunlight, triggers a Br2 release from surfaces associated with first-year sea ice. Many aspects of observed bromine enhancements and associated episodes of near-complete depletion of boundary layer ozone, both in the Arctic and in the Antarctic, are reproduced by this relatively simple approach. We present first results from our global model studies extending over a full annual cycle, including comparisons with Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment (GOME) satellite BrO VCDs and surface ozone observations.

Aerosol optical depth trend over the Middle East

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klingmueller, Klaus; Pozzer, Andrea; Metzger, Swen; Abdelkader, Mohamed; Stenchikov, Georgiy; Lelieveld, Jos

2016-04-01

We use the combined Dark Target/Deep Blue aerosol optical depth (AOD) satellite product of the Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) collection 6 to study trends over the Middle East between 2000 and 2015. Our analysis corroborates a previously identified positive AOD trend over large parts of the Middle East during the period 2001 to 2012. By relating the annual AOD to precipitation, soil moisture and surface wind, being the main factors controlling the dust cycle, we identify regions where these attributes are significantly correlated to the AOD over Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Iran. The Fertile Crescent turns out to be of prime importance for the AOD trend over these countries. Using multiple linear regression we show that AOD trend and interannual variability can be attributed to the above mentioned dust cycle parameters, confirming that the AOD increase is predominantly driven by dust. In particular, the positive AOD trend relates to a negative soil moisture trend. This suggests that increasing temperature and decreasing relative humidity in the last decade have promoted soil drying, leading to increased dust emissions and AOD; consequently an AOD increase is expected due to climate change. Based on simulations using the ECHAM/MESSy atmospheric chemistry-climate model (EMAC), we interpret the correlations identified in the observational data in terms of causal relationships.

Evaluation of East Asian climatology as simulated by seven coupled models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Dabang; Wang, Huijun; Lang, Xianmei

2005-07-01

Using observation and reanalysis data throughout 1961 1990, the East Asian surface air temperature, precipitation and sea level pressure climatology as simulated by seven fully coupled atmosphere-ocean models, namely CCSR/NIES, CGCM2, CSIRO-Mk2, ECHAM4/OPYC3, GFDL-R30, HadCM3, and NCAR-PCM, are systematically evaluated in this study. It is indicated that the above models can successfully reproduce the annual and seasonal surface air temperature and precipitation climatology in East Asia, with relatively good performance for boreal autumn and annual mean. The models’ ability to simulate surface air temperature is more reliable than precipitation. In addition, the models can dependably capture the geographical distribution pattern of annual, boreal winter, spring and autumn sea level pressure in East Asia. In contrast, relatively large simulation errors are displayed when simulated boreal summer sea level pressure is compared with reanalysis data in East Asia. It is revealed that the simulation errors for surface air temperature, precipitation and sea level pressure are generally large over and around the Tibetan Plateau. No individual model is best in every aspect. As a whole, the ECHAM4/OPYC3 and HadCM3 performances are much better, whereas the CGCM2 is relatively poorer in East Asia. Additionally, the seven-model ensemble mean usually shows a relatively high reliability.

Composition Changes After the "Halloween" Solar Proton Event: The High-Energy Particle Precipitation in the Atmosphere (HEPPA) Model Versus MIPAS Data Intercomparison Study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Funke, B.; Baumgaertner, A.; Calisto, M.; Egorova, T.; Jackman, C. H.; Kieser, J.; Krivolutsky, A.; Lopez-Puertas, M.; Marsh. D. R.; Reddmann, T.;

The 1-way on-line coupled model system MECO(n) - Part 4: Chemical evaluation (based on MESSy v2.52)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mertens, Mariano; Kerkweg, Astrid; Jöckel, Patrick; Tost, Holger; Hofmann, Christiane

2016-10-01

For the first time, a simulation incorporating tropospheric and stratospheric chemistry using the newly developed MECO(n) model system is performed. MECO(n) is short for MESSy-fied ECHAM and COSMO models nested n times. It features an online coupling of the COSMO-CLM model, equipped with the Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy) interface (called COSMO/MESSy), with the global atmospheric chemistry model ECHAM5/MESSy for Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC). This online coupling allows a consistent model chain with respect to chemical and meteorological boundary conditions from the global scale down to the regional kilometre scale. A MECO(2) simulation incorporating one regional instance over Europe with 50 km resolution and one instance over Germany with 12 km resolution is conducted for the evaluation of MECO(n) with respect to tropospheric gas-phase chemistry. The main goal of this evaluation is to ensure that the chemistry-related MESSy submodels and the online coupling with respect to the chemistry are correctly implemented. This evaluation is a prerequisite for the further usage of MECO(n) in atmospheric chemistry-related studies. Results of EMAC and the two COSMO/MESSy instances are compared with satellite, ground-based and aircraft in situ observations, focusing on ozone, carbon monoxide and nitrogen dioxide. Further, the methane lifetimes in EMAC and the two COSMO/MESSy instances are analysed in view of the tropospheric oxidation capacity. From this evaluation, we conclude that the chemistry-related submodels and the online coupling with respect to the chemistry are correctly implemented. In comparison with observations, both EMAC and COSMO/MESSy show strengths and weaknesses. Especially in comparison to aircraft in situ observations, COSMO/MESSy shows very promising results. However, the amplitude of the diurnal cycle of ground-level ozone measurements is underestimated. Most of the differences between COSMO/MESSy and EMAC can be attributed to differences in the dynamics of both models, which are subject to further model developments.

The transition of North Atlantic dust deposition and Saharan landscape during the Holocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Egerer, S.; Claussen, M.; Stanelle, T.; Reick, C. H.

2017-12-01

The sudden increase in North Atlantic dust deposition about 5 ka BP indicated by sediment records along the West African margin has been associated with an abrupt end of the African Humid Period (AHP). We perform several time slice simulations from 8 ka BP until the pre-industrial era to explore changes in the Holocene dust cycle. To do so, we use the coupled aerosol-climate model ECHAM6-HAM2 including interactive vegetation and dust, whereas ocean conditions and lakes are prescribed. The interactive coupling of vegetation, dust and atmosphere allows to set the dynamics of North Atlantic dust deposition in context to Holocene climate and landscape change in North Africa.In agreement with marine sediment records, we find an abrupt increase in simulated dust deposition at the location of the core sites roughly between 6 and 4 ka BP. Accordingly, dust emission in the North-west Sahara increases rapidly indicating that dust was transported by the same wind systems throughout the Holocene. The sudden increase in dust emission in the North-west Sahara is partly a consequence of a fast decline of vegetation cover from 22°N to 18°N due to vegetation-climate feedbacks and the rapid replacement of shrubs by grasses. Additionally, the prescribed strong but gradual reduction of lake surface area enforces accelerated dust release as former areas covered by lakes turn into highly productive dust sources. Changes in the Saharan landscape and dust emission south of 18°N and in the eastern Sahara as well as changes in atmospheric circulation play a minor role in driving the dynamics of North Atlantic dust deposition at the specific core sites. Our study emphasizes spatial and temporal differences in the transition of North African landscape implying that implications from local data records to large scales have to be treated with caution.

Evaluation of stratospheric temperature simulation results by the global GRAPES model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Ningwei; Wang, Yangfeng; Ma, Xiaogang; Zhang, Yunhai

2017-12-01

Global final analysis (FNL) products and the general circulation spectral model (ECHAM) were used to evaluate the simulation of stratospheric temperature by the global assimilation and prediction system (GRAPES). Through a series of comparisons, it was shown that the temperature variations at 50 hPa simulated by GRAPES were significantly elevated in the southern hemisphere, whereas simulations by ECHAM and FNL varied little over time. The regional warming predicted by GRAPES seemed to be too distinct and uncontrolled to be reasonable. The temperature difference between GRAPES and FNL (GRAPES minus FNL) was small at the start time on the global scale. Over time, the positive values became larger in more locations, especially in parts of the southern hemisphere, where the warming predicted by GRAPES was dominant, with a maximal value larger than 24 K. To determine the reasons for the stratospheric warming, we considered the model initial conditions and ozone data to be possible factors; however, a comparison and sensitivity test indicated that the errors produced by GRAPES were not significantly related to either factor. Further research focusing on the impact of factors such as vapor, heating rate, and the temperature tendency on GRAPES simulations will be conducted.

Assessing potential changes of chestnut productivity in Europe under future climate conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Calheiros, T.; Pereira, M. G.; Pinto, J. G.; Caramelo, L.; Gomes-Laranjo, J.; Dacamara, C. C.

2012-04-01

The European chestnut is cultivated for its nuts and wood. Several studies point to the dependency of chestnut productivity on specific soil and climate characteristics. For instance, this species dislikes chalky and poorly drained soils, appreciates sedimentary, siliceous and acidic to neutral soils. Chestnut trees also seems to appreciate annual mean values of sunlight spanning between 2400 and 2600 h, rainfall ranging between 600 and 1500 mm, mean annual temperature between 9 and 13°C, 27°C being the mean of the maximum temperature (Heiniger and Conedera, 1992; Gomes-Laranjo et al.,2008). The amount of heat between May and October must range between 1800°D and 2400°D (Dinis et al., 2011) . In Poland, the growing season is defined as the period of time when the mean 24-h temperature is greater than 5°C (Wilczynski and Podalski, 2007). In Portugal, maximum photosynthetic activity occurs at 24-28°C for adult trees, but exhibits more than 50% of termoinhibition when the air temperature is above 32°C, which is frequent during summer (Gomes- Laranjo et al., 2006, 2008). Recently Pereira et al (2011) identified a set of meteorological variables/parameters with high impact on chestnut productivity. The main purpose of this work is to assess the potential impacts of future climate change on chestnut productivity in Portugal as well as on European chestnut orchards. First, observed data from the European Climate assessment (ECA) and simulations with the Regional Circulation Model (RCM) COSMO-CLM for recent climate conditions are used to assess the ability of the RCM to model the actual meteorological conditions. Then, ensemble projections from the ECHAM5/COSMO-CLM model chain for two climate scenarios (A1B and B1) are used to estimate the values of relevant meteorological variables and parameters und future climate conditions. Simulated values are then compared with those obtained for present climate. Results point to changes in the spatial and temporal distribution of meteorological variables and parameters. In particular, more severe conditions during spring and summer are expected, especially in the Mediterranean area, with less precipitation and higher temperatures. All these changes will have impacts on chestnut fruits and wood in Europe. Dinis, L-T. J., Ferreira-Cardoso, J., Peixoto, F., Costa, R. e Gomes-Laranjo, J., 2011: Study of morphological and chemical diversity in chestnut trees (var. 'Judia') as a function of temperature sum. Cyta- Journal of food, 9(3): 192-199 Gomes-Laranjo et al., 2008: Differences in photosynthetic apparatus of leaves from different sides of chestnut canopy, Photosynthetica, 46, 63-72. Heiniger,U. And Conedera, M., 1992: Chestnut forests and chestnut cultivation in Switzerland. Proceedings of the International Chestnut Conference, West Virginia University, Morgantown, 10-14 July 1992, 175-178. Pereira, M.G., Caramelo, L., Gouveia, C., Gomes-Laranjo, J., Magalhães, M., 2011: Assessment of weather-related risk on chestnut productivity. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 11, 1-12, doi:10.5194/nhess-11-12-011. Wilczynski, S. And Podlaski, R, 2007: The effect of climate on radial growth of horse chestnut (Aesculus hippocastanum L.) in the Swietokrzki National Park in Central Poland, J.For.Res., 12, 24-23.

Simulated atmospheric response to Gulf Stream variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hand, Ralf; Keenlyside, Noel; Omrani, Nour-Eddine; Latif, Mojib; Minobe, Shoshiro

2010-05-01

Though the ocean variability has a distinct low-frequent component on interannual to interdecadal timescales, a better understanding of the main features of air-sea interaction in the extratropical ocean might increase the predictive skill of climate models significantly. An insufficiently understood region in this context are the sharp SST-fronts connected to western boundary currents, which interact with the overlaying atmosphere by forcing low-level winds and evaporation. Recent studies show, that this response extends beyond the marine boundary layer and so might influence also the large-scale atmospheric circulation. In this work a 5 member ensemble of model runs from the AGCM ECHAM5 was analyzed focussing on the atmospheric response to the Gulf Stream. The analyzed experiment covered a time period of 138 years from 1870 to 2007 and was forced by observed SSTs and sea-ice concentration from the HadISST dataset. The experiment was performed at T106 horizontal resolution (~100km) and with 31 vertical levels up to 1 hPa. Simulated seasonal mean circulation indicate a convective response of the atmosphere in the Gulf Stream region similar to observations, with distinct low-level wind convergence, strong upward motion, and low-pressure over the warm SST flank of the Gulf Stream. An analysis of variance (ANOVA) suggests, that up to 25-30% of the variability of the summer precipitation in the Gulf Stream region are connected to the boundary conditions. The link between oceanic and atmospheric variability on seasonal to interannual timescales is investigated with composite and linear regression analysis. Results indicate that increased (decreased) precipitation is associated with stronger (weaker) low-level wind convergence, enhanced (reduced) upward motion, low (high) pressure, and warm (cold) SST anomalies in the region of the Gulf Stream. Currently sensitivity experiments with the same AGCM configuration are in progress.

Evaluation of multi-model aerosol distributions over East Asia using in-situ and satellite observations during summer 2008

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quennehen, B.; Raut, J.; Law, K.; Ancellet, G.; Bazureau, A.; Thomas, J.; Daskalakis, N.; Kim, S.; Zhu, T.

2013-12-01

As part of the EU ECLIPSE (Evaluating the CLimate and air quality ImPacts of Short-livEd pollutants) project, which aims to quantify the climate impact of short lived climate forcers (SLCFs), including aerosols, black carbon and ozone, the WRF-Chem regional and six global (ECHAM6, EMEP, HadGEM, OsloCTM, NORESM, TM4) models are evaluated using observations in East-Asia. Simulations are compared at horizontal and vertical scales to satellite observations, as well as data from field campaigns which took place in summer 2008, and from long-term measurement stations. Models were run with the same emissions, namely, the ECLIPSE anthropogenic (based on the GAINS model), GFED 3.1 fire and RCP 6.0 ship and aircraft emissions for 2008. The initial and boundary conditions for the WRF-Chem regional model were specified from the TM4 global chemical transport model. Firstly, this study evaluates the ability of the models to simulate aerosol physical, optical and chemical properties at a large scale, both horizontally and vertically, using monthly mean satellite observations such as CALIPSO, MODIS and IASI. Secondly, model daily and hourly results are evaluated at more regional/local scales using ground-based data and measurements from summer 2008 intensive campaigns, including aircraft data (CAPMEX and CAREBEIJING). In this study, we assess aerosol total concentrations and size distributions simulated by the model. The radiative impact of anthropogenic aerosol layers has already been investigated but less is known about the influence of vertical layering in the atmosphere. Pollution layers have different radiative impacts whether they are below or above clouds and in that sense, a better understanding of their spatial and vertical extent is critical. Information about pollution layers and cloud optical properties and locations over East-Asia are determined using observations from IASI for trace gases and CALIPSO for aerosols. The radiative impact of the aerosol layers is simulated and compared to the observations. The impact of differences in the evaluated parameters on the radiative calculations will be estimated.

Assessment of two physical parameterization schemes for desert dust emissions in an atmospheric chemistry general circulation model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Astitha, M.; Abdel Kader, M.; Pozzer, A.; Lelieveld, J.

2012-04-01

Atmospheric particulate matter and more specific desert dust has been the topic of numerous research studies in the past due to the wide range of impacts in the environment and climate and the uncertainty of characterizing and quantifying these impacts in a global scale. In this work we present two physical parameterizations of the desert dust production that have been incorporated in the atmospheric chemistry general circulation model EMAC (ECHAM5/MESSy2.41 Atmospheric Chemistry). The scope of this work is to assess the impact of the two physical parameterizations in the global distribution of desert dust and highlight the advantages and disadvantages of using either technique. The dust concentration and deposition has been evaluated using the AEROCOM dust dataset for the year 2000 and data from the MODIS and MISR satellites as well as sun-photometer data from the AERONET network was used to compare the modelled aerosol optical depth with observations. The implementation of the two parameterizations and the simulations using relatively high spatial resolution (T106~1.1deg) has highlighted the large spatial heterogeneity of the dust emission sources as well as the importance of the input parameters (soil size and texture, vegetation, surface wind speed). Also, sensitivity simulations with the nudging option using reanalysis data from ECMWF and without nudging have showed remarkable differences for some areas. Both parameterizations have revealed the difficulty of simulating all arid regions with the same assumptions and mechanisms. Depending on the arid region, each emission scheme performs more or less satisfactorily which leads to the necessity of treating each desert differently. Even though this is a quite different task to accomplish in a global model, some recommendations are given and ideas for future improvements.

Identification of the atmospheric river drivers key on local flood generating mechanism and its sensitivity under the climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lorente-Plazas, Raquel; Mauger, Guillaume; Salathé, Eric; Mitchell, Todd P.

2017-04-01

Flooding is one of the natural hazard that causes the significant economic, ecosystem and human losses every year. Large percentage of floodings in the western of the US caused by heavy precipitation events are associated to atmospheric rivers (ARs). With the warmer climate is expected an increase of saturated water pressure which could increase the intensity and frequency of the ARs. In this work we attend to address two questions: 1) what are the large-scale drivers that promotes differences in ARs promoting heavy precipitation at different locations and 2) how climate change will influence on ARs and extreme precipitation. The methods applied in our analysis consist on a dynamical downscaling using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The target region is the western coastline U.S. on a domain with 12-km grid spacing. Regional climate simulations (RCM) encompass a historical period (1970-2010) and future projections (2020-2060) using NNRP and ECHAM as initial and boundary conditions. Clustering methods are applied to the RCM to identify regions with similar precipitation variability. At each region, the extreme events of precipitation according to 99 percentile are identified and associated to integrated vapor transport (ITV). Results show how heaviest precipitation in each region is associated to different AR patterns. When an AR impacts coastline, the direction and intensity of the IVT determine the areas affected by heavy precipitation. Coastal mountains play a key role intensifying the precipitation in the coastline and avoiding the inland penetration of the IVT. The shape of the atmospheric rivers is related to differences in 500 hPa geopotential between the mean and the extreme precipitation. Areas with heaviest precipitation are located in the interface of Z500 differences.

Global variability of cloud condensation nuclei concentrations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Makkonen, Risto; Krüger, Olaf

2017-04-01

Atmospheric aerosols can influence cloud optical and dynamical processes by acting as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN). Globally, these indirect aerosol effects are significant to the radiative budget as well as a source of high uncertainty in anthropogenic radiative forcing. While historically many global climate models have fixed CCN concentrations to a certain level, most state-of-the-art models calculate aerosol-cloud interactions with sophisticated methodologies based on interactively simulated aerosol size distributions. However, due to scarcity of atmospheric observations simulated global CCN concentrations remain poorly constrained. Here we assess global CCN variability with a climate model, and attribute potential trends during 2000-2010 to changes in emissions and meteorological fields. Here we have used ECHAM5.5-HAM2 with model M7 microphysical aerosol model. The model has been upgraded with a secondary organic aerosol (SOA) scheme including ELVOCs. Dust and sea salt emissions are calculated online, based on wind speed and hydrology. Each experiment is 11 years, analysed after a 6-month spin-up period. The MODIS CCN product (Terra platform) is used to evaluate model performance throughout 2000-2010. While optical remote observation of CCN column includes several deficiencies, the products serves as a proxy for changes during the simulation period. In our analysis we utilize the observed and simulated vertical column integrated CCN concentration, and limit our analysis only over marine regions. Simulated annual CCN column densities reach 2ṡ108 cm-2 near strong source regions in central Africa, Arabian Sea, Bay of Bengal and China sea. The spatial concentration gradient in CCN(0.2%) is steep, and column densities drop to <50% a few hundred kilometers away from the coasts. While the spatial distribution of CCN at 0.2% supersaturation is closer to that of MODIS proxy, as opposed to 1.0% supersaturation, the overall column integrated CCN are too low. Still, we can compare the relative response of CCN to emission and meteorological variability. Most evident pattern of high temporal correlation is found over North Atlantic ocean, extending throughout Europe and up to Gulf of Mexico. All of these regions show a generally decreasing trend throughout the decade in control simulations and MODIS CCN, and the simulations including the emission trends clearly improve the simulations with climatological emissions. In regions where the observed intra-annual cycle correlates well with sea-spray emissions, the long-term annual correlation usually remains poor. This could indicate that the model is unable to capture the natural variability in marine aerosol emissions.

Vegetation and Carbon Cycle Dynamics in the High-Resolution Transient Holocene Simulations Using the MPI Earth System Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brovkin, V.; Lorenz, S.; Raddatz, T.; Claussen, M.; Dallmeyer, A.

2017-12-01

One of the interesting periods to investigate a climatic role of terrestrial biosphere is the Holocene, when, despite of the relatively steady global climate, the atmospheric CO2 grew by about 20 ppm from 7 kyr BP to pre-industrial. We use a new setup of the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model MPI-ESM1 consisting of the latest version of the atmospheric model ECHAM6, including the land surface model JSBACH3 with carbon cycle and vegetation dynamics, coupled to the ocean circulation model MPI-OM, which includes the HAMOCC model of ocean biogeochemistry. The model has been run for several simulations over the Holocene period of the last 8000 years under the forcing data sets of orbital insolation, atmospheric greenhouse gases, volcanic aerosols, solar irradiance and stratospheric ozone, as well as land-use changes. In response to this forcing, the land carbon storage increased by about 60 PgC between 8 and 4 kyr BP, stayed relatively constant until 2 kyr BP, and decreased by about 90 PgC by 1850 AD due to land use changes. At 8 kyr BP, vegetation cover was much denser in Africa, mainly due to increased rainfall in response to the orbital forcing. Boreal forests moved northward in both, North America and Eurasia. The boreal forest expansion in North America is much less pronounced than in Eurasia. Simulated physical ocean fields, including surface temperatures and meridional overturning, do not change substantially in the Holocene. Carbonate ion concentration in deep ocean decreases in both, prescribed and interactive CO2simulations. Comparison with available proxies for terrestrial vegetation and for the ocean carbonate chemistry will be presented. Vegetation and soil carbon changes significantly affected atmospheric CO2 during the periods of strong volcanic eruptions. In response to the eruption-caused cooling, the land initially stores more carbon as respiration decreases, but then it releases even more carbon die to productivity decrease. This decadal-scale variability helps to quantify the vegetation and land carbon feedbacks during the past periods when the temporal resolution of the ice-core CO2 record is not sufficient to capture fast CO2 variations. From a set of Holocene simulations with prescribed or interactive atmospheric CO2, we get estimates of climate-carbon feedback useful for future climate studies.

Effect of Interactive River Routing on North Atlantic Overturning in a Simulation of the last Deglaciation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mikolajewicz, Uwe; Ziemen, Florian; Kapsch, Marie; Meccia, Virna

2017-04-01

One of the major challenges in climate modeling is the simulation of glacial-interglacial transitions. A few models of intermediate complexity have been successful in simulating the last termination. Complex atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) with prescribed ice sheets are able to yield realistic climate changes. Here we present results from our first attempt to simulate a substantial part of the last glacial cycle with an AOGCM coupled interactively with a state-of-the-art ice sheet model. The ECHAM5/MPIOM AOGCM is interactively coupled to the dynamical ice sheet model PISM and the dynamical vegetation model LPJ. The model is integrated from the late Glacial into the Holocene using insolation and greenhouse gas concentrations as transient forcing. To make the long simulations feasible, the atmosphere is accelerated by a factor of 10 relative to the other components using a periodical-synchronous coupling technique. The land sea mask remains fixed at the LGM state. River routing and surface elevation are calculated interactively. A mini-ensemble with different initial conditions is performed. Additionally, one fully synchronously simulation, without acceleration in the atmosphere, is run. In all simulations the northern hemisphere deglaciation starts between 18 and 17 kyr BP, consistent with the onset of global warming. The model produces Heinrich event like variability. These rapid ice discharge events have a strong impact on the North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (NAMOC). The interactive river routing has a strong impact on the simulated NAMOC during the deglaciation. The retreat of the Laurentide Ice Sheet together with the depressed topography due to the former ice load leads to a redirection of the river routes.. In particular, the discharge route for runoff from the melting southwestern Laurentide shifts from the Gulf of Mexico to the Arctic. The consequence is a rapid reduction/suppression of the North Atlantic deep water (NADW) formation. When the Laurentide Ice Sheet retreats from the Hudson Strait, this becomes the new drainage route. Hence, fresh water is released into the Labrador Sea and is less effective in suppressing the deep water formation in the North Atlantic. As a consequence, the NADW formation recovers within a few decades. Our results show the potential importance of interactive river routing for rapid changes in NAMOC strength during the deglaciation.

Could gradual changes in Holocene Saharan landscape have caused the observed abrupt shift in North Atlantic dust deposition?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Egerer, Sabine; Claussen, Martin; Reick, Christian; Stanelle, Tanja

2017-09-01

The abrupt change in North Atlantic dust deposition found in sediment records has been associated with a rapid large scale transition of Holocene Saharan landscape. We hypothesize that gradual changes in the landscape may have caused this abrupt shift in dust deposition either because of the non-linearity in dust activation or because of the heterogeneous distribution of major dust sources. To test this hypothesis, we investigate the response of North Atlantic dust deposition to a prescribed 1) gradual and spatially homogeneous decrease and 2) gradual southward retreat of North African vegetation and lakes during the Holocene using the aerosol-climate model ECHAM-HAM. In our simulations, we do not find evidence of an abrupt increase in dust deposition as observed in marine sediment records along the Northwest African margin. We conclude that such gradual changes in landscape are not sufficient to explain the observed abrupt changes in dust accumulation in marine sediment records. Instead, our results point to a rapid large-scale retreat of vegetation and lakes in the area of significant dust sources.

Vegetation and land carbon feedbacks in the high-resolution transient Holocene simulations using the MPI Earth system model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brovkin, Victor; Lorenz, Stephan; Raddatz, Thomas

2017-04-01

Plants influence climate through changes in the land surface biophysics (albedo, transpiration) and concentrations of the atmospheric greenhouse gases. One of the interesting periods to investigate a climatic role of terrestrial biosphere is the Holocene, when, despite of the relatively steady global climate, the atmospheric CO2 grew by about 20 ppm from 7 kyr BP to pre-industrial. We use a new setup of the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model MPI-ESM1 consisting of the latest version of the atmospheric model ECHAM6, including the land surface model JSBACH3 with carbon cycle and vegetation dynamics, coupled to the ocean circulation model MPI-OM, which includes the HAMOCC model of ocean biogeochemistry. The model has been run for several simulations over the Holocene period of the last 8000 years under the forcing data sets of orbital insolation, atmospheric greenhouse gases, volcanic aerosols, solar irradiance and stratospheric ozone, as well as land-use changes. In response to this forcing, the land carbon storage increased by about 60 PgC between 8 and 4 kyr BP, stayed relatively constant until 2 kyr BP, and decreased by about 90 PgC by 1850 AD due to land use changes. Vegetation and soil carbon changes significantly affected atmospheric CO2 during the periods of strong volcanic eruptions. In response to the eruption-caused cooling, the land initially stores more carbon as respiration decreases, but then it releases even more carbon due to productivity decrease. This decadal- scale variability helps to quantify the vegetation and land carbon feedbacks during the past periods when the temporal resolution of the ice-core CO2 record is not sufficient to capture fast CO2 variations. From a set of Holocene simulations with prescribed or interactive atmospheric CO2, we get estimates of climate-carbon feedback useful for future climate studies. Members of the Hamburg Holocene Team: Jürgen Bader1, Sebastian Bathiany2, Victor Brovkin1, Martin Claussen1,3, Traute Crüger1, Roberta D'agostino1, Anne Dallmeyer1, Sabine Egerer1, Vivienne Groner1, Matthias Heinze1, Tatiana Ilyina1, Johann Jungclaus1, Thomas Kleinen1, Alexander Lemburg1, Stephan Lorenz1, Thomas Raddatz1, Hauke Schmidt1, Gerhard Schmiedl3, Bjorn Stevens1, Claudia Timmreck1, Matthew Toohey4 1Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie, D 2Wageningen University, NL 3CEN, Universität Hamburg, D 4GEOMAR Helmholtz Zentrum für Ozeanforschung Kiel, D

Comparison of aerosol optical properties above clouds between POLDER and AeroCom models over the South East Atlantic Ocean during the fire season: POLDER/AeroCom Comparison Above Clouds

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Peers, F.; Bellouin, N.; Waquet, F.

Aerosol properties above clouds have been retrieved over the South East Atlantic Ocean during the fire season 2006 using satellite observations from POLDER (Polarization and Directionality of Earth Reflectances). From June to October, POLDER has observed a mean Above-Cloud Aerosol Optical Thickness (ACAOT) of 0.28 and a mean Above-Clouds Single Scattering Albedo (ACSSA) of 0.87 at 550nm. These results have been used to evaluate the simulation of aerosols above clouds in 5 AeroCom (Aerosol Comparisons between Observations and Models) models (GOCART, HadGEM3, ECHAM5-HAM2, OsloCTM2 and SPRINTARS). Most models do not reproduce the observed large aerosol load episodes. The comparison highlightsmore » the importance of the injection height and the vertical transport parameterizations to simulate the large ACAOT observed by POLDER. Furthermore, some models overestimate the ACSSA. In accordance with recent recommendations of the black carbon refractive index, a higher prescription of the imaginary part allows a better comparison with POLDER’s ACSSA.« less

Modelling the distribution of tritium in groundwater across South Africa to assess the vulnerability and sustainability of groundwater resources in response to climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Rooyen, Jared; Miller, Jodie; Watson, Andrew; Butler, Mike

2017-04-01

Groundwater is critical for sustaining human populations, especially in semi-arid to arid areas, where surface water availability is low. Shallow groundwater is usually abstracted for this purpose because it is the easiest to access and assumed to be renewable and regularly recharged by precipitation. Renewable, regularly recharged groundwater is also called modern groundwater, ie groundwater that has recently been in contact with the atmosphere. Tritium can be used to determine whether or not a groundwater resource is modern because the half-life of tritium is only 12.36 years and tritium is dominantly produced in the upper atmosphere and not in the rock mass. For this reason, groundwater with detectable tritium activities likely has a residence age of less than 50 years. In this study, tritium activities in 277 boreholes distributed across South Africa were used to develop a national model for tritium activity in groundwater in order to establish the extent of modern groundwater across South Africa. The tritium model was combined with modelled depth to water using 3079 measured static water levels obtained from the National Groundwater Archive and validated against a separate set of 40 tritium activities along the west coast of South Africa. The model showed good agreement with the distribution of rainfall which has been previously documented across the globe (Gleeson et al., 2015), although the arid Karoo basin in south west South Africa shows higher than expected tritium levels given the very low regional precipitation levels. To assess the vulnerability of groundwater to degradation in quality and quantity, the tritium model was incorporated into a multi-criteria evaluation (MCE) model which incorporated other indicators of groundwater stress including mean annual precipitation, mean annual surface temperature, electrical conductivity (as a proxy for groundwater salinization), potential evaporation, population density and cultivated land usage. The MCE model was then forward projected using predicted climate change from the ECHAM5/MPI-OM model for SRES high emission scenario A2. The resultant groundwater vulnerability map for South Africa indicates that groundwater across large parts of western South Africa, particularly along the west coast and Northern Cape regions, is extremely vulnerable to deterioration in both quality and quantity and this deterioration is most strongly linked to mean annual precipitation and potential evaporation. Accordingly, the west coast region of South Africa is now, and will remain in the future, the most vulnerable region to climate change in South Africa. Further investigation of the predicted evolution of climate, biodiversity and agricultural capacity in this region will be critical for developing sustainable groundwater management protocols. Gleeson, T., Befus, K.M., Jasechko, S., Luijendijk, E., and Bayani Cardenas, M., 2016. The global volume and distribution of modern groundwater. Nature Geosciences, 9, 161-167.

On the reduced lifetime of nitrous oxide due to climate change induced acceleration of the Brewer-Dobson circulation as simulated by the MPI Earth System Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kracher, D.; Manzini, E.; Reick, C. H.; Schultz, M. G.; Stein, O.

2014-12-01

Greenhouse gas induced climate change will modify the physical conditions of the atmosphere. One of the projected changes is an acceleration of the Brewer-Dobson circulation in the stratosphere, as it has been shown in many model studies. This change in the stratospheric circulation consequently bears an effect on the transport and distribution of atmospheric components such as N2O. Since N2O is involved in ozone destruction, a modified distribution of N2O can be of importance for ozone chemistry. N2O is inert in the troposphere and decays only in the stratosphere. Thus, changes in the exchange between troposphere and stratosphere can also affect the stratospheric sink of N2O, and consequently its atmospheric lifetime. N2O is a potent greenhouse gas with a global warming potential of currently approximately 300 CO2-equivalents in a 100-year perspective. A faster decay in atmospheric N2O mixing ratios, i.e. a decreased atmospheric lifetime of N2O, will also reduce its global warming potential. In order to assess the impact of climate change on atmospheric circulation and implied effects on the distribution and lifetime of atmospheric N2O, we apply the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model, MPI-ESM. MPI-ESM consists of the atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM, the land surface model JSBACH, and MPIOM/HAMOCC representing ocean circulation and ocean biogeochemistry. Prognostic atmospheric N2O concentrations in MPI-ESM are determined by land N2O emissions, ocean-atmosphere N2O exchange and atmospheric tracer transport. As stratospheric chemistry is not explicitly represented in MPI-ESM, stratospheric decay rates of N2O are prescribed from a MACC MOZART simulation. Increasing surface temperatures and CO2 concentrations in the stratosphere impact atmospheric circulation differently. Thus, we conduct a series of transient runs with the atmospheric model of MPI-ESM to isolate different factors governing a shift in atmospheric circulation. From those transient simulations we diagnose decreasing tropospheric N2O concentrations, increased transport of N2O from the troposphere to the stratosphere, and increasing stratospheric decay of N2O leading to a reduction in atmospheric lifetime of N2O, in dependency to climate change evolution.

In vitro nematicidal effect of Chenopodium ambrosioides and Castela tortuosa n-hexane extracts against Haemonchus contortus (Nematoda) and their anthelmintic effect in gerbils.

PubMed

Zamilpa, A; García-Alanís, C; López-Arellano, M E; Hernández-Velázquez, V M; Valladares-Cisneros, M G; Salinas-Sánchez, D O; Mendoza-de Gives, P

2018-05-06

The in vitro nematicidal effect of Chenopodium ambrosioides and Castela tortuosa n-hexane extracts (E-Cham and E-Cato, respectively) on Haemonchus contortus infective larvae (L3) and the anthelmintic effect of these extracts against the pre-adult stage of the parasite in gerbils were evaluated using both individual and combined extracts. The in vitro confrontation between larvae and extracts was performed in 24-well micro-titration plates. The results were considered 24 and 72 h post confrontation. The in vivo nematicidal effect was examined using gerbils as a study model. The extracts from the two assessed plants were obtained through maceration using n-hexane as an organic agent. Gerbils artificially infected with H. contortus L3 were treated intraperitoneally with the corresponding extract either individually or in combination. The results showed that the highest individual lethal in vitro effect (96.3%) was obtained with the E-Cham extract at 72 h post confrontation at 40 mg/ml, followed by E-Cato (78.9%) at 20 mg/ml after 72 h. The highest combined effect (98.7%) was obtained after 72 h at 40 mg/ml. The in vivo assay showed that the individual administration of the E-Cato and E-Cham extracts reduced the parasitic burden in gerbils by 27.1% and 45.8%, respectively. Furthermore, the anthelmintic efficacy increased to 57.3% when both extracts were administered in combination. The results of the present study show an important combined nematicidal effect of the two plant extracts assessed against L3 in gerbils.

The role of the uncertainty in assessing future scenarios of water shortage in alluvial aquifers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Romano, Emanuele; Camici, Stefania; Brocca, Luca; Moramarco, Tommaso; Guyennon, Nicolas; Preziosi, Elisabetta

2015-04-01

There are many evidences that the combined effects of variations in precipitation and temperature due to climate change can result in a significant change of the recharge to groundwater at different time scales. A possible reduction of effective infiltration can result in a significant decrease, temporary or permanent, of the availability of the resource and, consequently, the sustainable pumping rate should be reassessed. In addition to this, one should also consider the so called indirect impacts of climate change, resulting from human intervention (e.g. augmentation of abstractions) which are feared to be even more important than the direct ones in the medium term: thus, a possible increase of episodes of shortage (i.e. the inability of the groundwater system to completely supply the water demand) can result both from change in the climate forcing and change in the demand. In order to assess future scenarios of water shortage a modelling chain is often used. It includes: 1) the use of General Circulation Models to estimate changes in temperature and precipitation; 2) downscaling procedures to match modeling scenarios to the observed meteorological time series; 3) soil-atmosphere modelling to estimate the time variation of the recharge to the aquifer; 4) groundwater flow models to simulate the water budget and piezometric head evolution; 5) future scenarios of groundwater quantitative status that include scenarios of demand variation. It is well known that each of these processing steps is affected by an intrinsic uncertainty that propagates through the whole chain leading to a final uncertainty on the piezometric head scenarios. The estimate of such an uncertainty is a key point for a correct management of groundwater resources, in case of water shortage due to prolonged droughts as well as for planning purposes. This study analyzes the uncertainty of the processing chain from GCM scenarios to its impact on an alluvial aquifer in terms of exploitation sustainability. To this goal, three GCMs (ECHAM5, PCM and CCSM3) and two downscaling methods (Linear Rescaling and Quantile Mapping) are used to generate future scenarios of precipitation and temperature; the Thornthwaite-Mather soil water balance model is used to estimate the recharge to the aquifer; the evolution in time of the piezometric heads is estimated through a numerical model developed using the MODFLOW2005 code. Finally, different scenarios of water demand are applied. Final results show that the uncertainty due to the groundwater flow model calibration/validation in steady-state conditions is comparable to that arising from the whole processing chain from the GCM choice to the effective infiltration estimates. Simulations in transient conditions show the high impact of the uncertainty related to the calibration of the storage coefficient, that significantly drives the resilience of the system, thus the ability of the aquifer to sustain the demand during the periods of prolonged drought.

Interannual variations in length-of-day (LOD) as a tool to assess climate variability and climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lehmann, E.

2016-12-01

On interannual time scales the atmosphere affects significantly fluctuations in the geodetic quantity of length-of-day (LOD). This effect is directly proportional to perturbations in the relative angular momentum of the atmosphere (AAM) computed from zonal winds. During El Niño events tropospheric westerlies increase due to elevated sea surface temperatures (SST) in the Pacific inducing peak anomalies in relative AAM and correspondingly, in LOD. However, El Niño events affect LOD variations differently strong and the causes of this varying effect are yet not clear. Here, we investigate the LOD-El Niño relationship in the 20th and 21st century (1982-2100) whether the quantity of LOD can be used as a geophysical tool to assess variability and change in a future climate. In our analysis we applied a windowed discrete Fourier transform on all de-seasonalized data to remove climatic signals outside of the El Niño frequency band. LOD (data: IERS) was related in space and time to relative AAM and SSTs (data: ERA-40 reanalysis, IPCC ECHAM05-OM1 20C, A1B). Results from mapped Pearson correlation coefficients and time frequency behavior analysis identified a teleconnection pattern that we term the EN≥65%-index. The EN≥65%-index prescribes a significant change in variation in length-of-day of +65% and more related to (1) SST anomalies of >2° in the Pacific Niño region (160°E-80°W, 5°S-5°N), (2) corresponding stratospheric warming anomalies of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), and (3) strong westerly winds in the lower equatorial stratosphere. In our analysis we show that the coupled atmosphere-ocean conditions prescribed in the EN≥65%-index apply to the extreme El Niño events of 19982/83 and 1997/98, and to 75% of all El Niño events in the last third of the 21st century. At that period of time the EN≥65%-index describes a projected altered base state of the equatorial Pacific that shows almost continuous El Niño conditions under climate warming.

Manipulating ship fuel sulfur content and modeling the effects on air quality and climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Partanen, Antti-Ilari; Laakso, Anton; Schmidt, Anja; Kokkola, Harri; Kuokkanen, Tuomas; Kerminen, Veli-Matti; Lehtinen, Kari E. J.; Laakso, Lauri; Korhonen, Hannele

2013-04-01

Aerosol emissions from international shipping are known to cause detrimental health effects on people mainly via increased lung cancer and cardiopulmonary diseases. On the other hand, the aerosol particles from the ship emissions modify the properties of clouds and are believed to have a significant cooling effect on the global climate. In recent years, aerosol emissions from shipping have been more strictly regulated in order to improve air quality and thus decrease the mortality due to ship emissions. Decreasing the aerosol emissions from shipping is projected to decrease their cooling effect, which would intensify the global warming even further. In this study, we use a global aerosol-climate model ECHAM5.5-HAM2 to test if continental air quality can be improved while still retaining the cooling effect from shipping. The model explicitly resolves emissions of aerosols and their pre-cursor gases. The model also calculates the interaction between aerosol particles and clouds, and can thus predict the changes in cloud properties due to aerosol emissions. We design and simulate a scenario where ship fuel sulfur content is strictly limited to 0.1% near all coastal regions, but doubled in the open oceans from the current global mean value of 2.7% (geo-ships). This scenario is compared to three other simulations: 1) No shipping emissions at all (no-ships), 2) present-day shipping emissions (std-ships) and 3) a future scenario where sulfur content is limited to 0.1% in the coastal zones and to 0.5% in the open ocean (future-ships). Global mean radiative flux perturbation (RFP) in std-ships compared to no-ships is calculated to be -0.4 W m-2, which is in the range of previous estimates for present-day shipping emissions. In the geo-ships simulation the corresponding global mean RFP is roughly equal, but RFP is spatially distributed more on the open oceans, as expected. In future-ships the decreased aerosol emissions provide weaker cooling effect of only -0.1 W m-2. In order to assess the health effects of different emission scenarios we diagnose PM2.5 concentrations from each simulation. Then, we use PM2.5 concentrations and C-R functions to calculate the changes in mortality related to lung cancer and cardiopulmonary diseases. Our preliminary analysis suggests that mortality in geo-ships would be lower than in std-ships. Strict sulfur content limits also in the open oceans (future-ships) would decrease the mortality even more. Idea of deliberately increasing fuel sulfur content in order to produce a cooling effect can be classified as one form of solar radiation management (SRM). There are several scientific, ethical and political problems associated with SRM technologies and a number of them would be applicable to the idea we present here. For example, there would be a conflict between the existing international treaties and the proposed increase in ship fuel sulfur content. However, our study is increasing the knowledge of air quality and climate trade-offs related to ship emission controls. If the cooling effect of ship traffic is considered too precious to lose, there might be ways to preserve it, while still notably increasing the continental air quality.

Aromatic VOCs global influence in the ozone production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cabrera-Perez, David; Pozzer, Andrea

2016-04-01

Aromatic hydrocarbons are a subgroup of Volatile Organic Compounds (VOCs) of special interest in the atmosphere of urban and semi-urban areas. Aromatics form a high fraction of VOCs, are highly reactive and upon oxidation they are an important source of ozone. These group of VOCs are released to the atmosphere by processes related to biomass burning and fossil fuel consumption, while they are removed from the atmosphere primarily by OH reaction and by dry deposition. In addition, a branch of aromatics (ortho-nitrophenols) produce HONO upon photolysis, which is responsible of certain amount of the OH recycling. Despite their importance in the atmosphere in anthropogenic polluted areas, the influence of aromatics in the ozone production remains largely unknown. This is of particular relevance, being ozone a pollutant with severe side effects on air quality, health and climate. In this work the atmospheric impacts at global scale of the most emitted aromatic VOCs in the gas phase (benzene, toluene, xylenes, ethylbenzene, styrene, phenol, benzaldehyde and trimethylbenzenes) are analysed and assessed. Specifically, the impact on ozone due to aromatic oxidation is estimated, as this is of great interest in large urban areas and can be helpful for developing air pollution control strategies. Further targets are the quantification of the NOx loss and the OH recycling due to aromatic oxidation. In order to investigate these processes, two simulations were performed with the numerical chemistry and climate simulation ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) model. The simulations compare two cases, one with ozone concentrations when aromatics are present or the second one when they are missing. Finally, model simulated ozone is compared against a global set of observations in order to better constrain the model accuracy.

Greenland ice sheet surface mass-balance modeling in a 131-year perspective, 1950-2080

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mernild, Sebastian Haugard; Liston, Glen; Hiemstra, Christopher

2009-01-01

Fluctuations in the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) surface mass-balance (SMB) and freshwater influx to the surrounding oceans closely follow climate fluctuations and are of considerable importance to the global eustatic sea level rise. SnowModel, a state-of-the-art snow-evolution modeling system, was used to simulate variations in the GrIS melt extent, surface water balance components, changes in SMB, and freshwater influx to the ocean. The simulations are based on the IPCC scenario AlB modeled by the HIRHAM4 RCM (using boundary conditions from ECHAM5 AOGCM) from 1950 through 2080. In-situ meteorological station (GC-Net and WMO DMI) observations from inside and outside the GrISmore » were used to validate and correct RCM output data before it was used as input for SnowModel. Satellite observations and independent SMB studies were used to validate the SnowModel output and confirm the model's robustness. We simulated a {approx}90% increase in end-of-summer surface melt extent (0.483 x 10{sup 6} km{sup 2}) from 1950 to 2080, and a melt index (above 2,000-m elevation) increase of 138% (1.96 x 10{sup 6} km{sup 2} x days). The greatest difference in melt extent occured in the southern part of the GrIS, and the greatest changes in the number of melt days was seen in the eastern part of the GrIS ({approx}50-70%) and was lowest in the west ({approx}20-30%). The rate of SMB loss, largely tied to changes in ablation processes, lead to an enhanced average loss of 331 km{sup 3} from 1950 to 2080, an average 5MB level of -99 km{sup 3} for the period 2070-2080. GrIS surface freshwater runoff yielded an eustatic rise in sea level from 0.8 {+-} 0.1 (1950-1959) to 1.9 {+-} 0.1 mm (2070-2080) sea level equivalent (SLE) y{sup -1}. The accumulated GrIS freshwater runoff contribution from surface melting equaled 160 mm SLE from 1950 through 2080.« less

Comparison of aerosol optical properties above clouds between POLDER and AeroCom models over the South East Atlantic Ocean during the fire season

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peers, F.; Bellouin, N.; Waquet, F.; Ducos, F.; Goloub, P.; Mollard, J.; Myhre, G.; Skeie, R. B.; Takemura, T.; Tanré, D.; Thieuleux, F.; Zhang, K.

2016-04-01

Aerosol properties above clouds have been retrieved over the South East Atlantic Ocean during the fire season 2006 using satellite observations from POLDER (Polarization and Directionality of Earth Reflectances). From June to October, POLDER has observed a mean Above-Cloud Aerosol Optical Thickness (ACAOT) of 0.28 and a mean Above-Clouds Single Scattering Albedo (ACSSA) of 0.87 at 550 nm. These results have been used to evaluate the simulation of aerosols above clouds in five Aerosol Comparisons between Observations and Models (Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GOCART), Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model 3 (HadGEM3), European Centre Hamburg Model 5-Hamburg Aerosol Module 2 (ECHAM5-HAM2), Oslo-Chemical Transport Model 2 (OsloCTM2), and Spectral Radiation-Transport Model for Aerosol Species (SPRINTARS)). Most models do not reproduce the observed large aerosol load episodes. The comparison highlights the importance of the injection height and the vertical transport parameterizations to simulate the large ACAOT observed by POLDER. Furthermore, POLDER ACSSA is best reproduced by models with a high imaginary part of black carbon refractive index, in accordance with recent recommendations.

Aerosol as a player in the Arctic Amplification - an aerosol-climate model evaluation study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schacht, Jacob; Heinold, Bernd; Tegen, Ina

2017-04-01

Climate warming is much more pronounced in the Arctic than in any other region on Earth - a phenomenon referred to as the "Arctic Amplification". This is closely related to a variety of specific feedback mechanisms, which relative importance, however, is not yet sufficiently understood. The local changes in the Arctic climate are far-reaching and affect for example the general atmospheric circulation and global energy transport. Aerosol particles from long-range transport and local sources play an important role in the Arctic system by modulating the energy balance (directly by interaction with solar and thermal infrared radiation and indirectly by changing cloud properties and atmospheric dynamics). The main source regions of anthropogenic aerosol are Europe and East Asia, but also local shipping and oil/gas extraction may contribute significantly. In addition, important sources are widespread, mainly natural boreal forest fires. Most of the European aerosol is transported through the lower atmospheric layers in wintertime. The Asian aerosol is transported through higher altitudes. Because of the usually pristine conditions in the Arctic even small absolute changes in aerosol concentration can have large impacts on the Arctic climate. Using global and Arctic-focused model simulations, we aim at investigating the sources and transport pathways of natural and anthropogenic aerosol to the Arctic region, as well as their impact on radiation and clouds. Here, we present first results from an aerosol-climate model evaluation study. Simulations were performed with the global aerosol-climate model ECHAM6-HAM2, using three different state-of-the-art emission inventories (ACCMIP, ACCMIP + GFAS emissions for wildfires and ECLIPSE). The runs were performed in nudged mode at T63 horizontal resolution (approximately 1.8°) with 47 vertical levels for the 10-year period 2006-2015. Black carbon (BC) and sulphate (SO4) are of particular interest. BC is highly absorbing in the solar spectrum, an effect that is enhanced by the contrast between the bright snow/ice surfaces and the dark BC. When deposited on snow and ice, BC also accelerates melting and lowers the surface albedo. SO4 however is more scattering and, therefore, cooling. The model results are compared among each other and evaluated against ground-based in-situ and remote sensing, as well as active satellite observations. The following questions are addressed in the evaluation: 1) Are the sources and transport pathways of aerosol to the Arctic region captured? 2) Is the annual cycle of aerosol conditions reproduced? 3) What are uncertainties related to the emission database? After thorough evaluation, the model results will provide a state-of-the-art estimate of the aerosol budget and the effective radiative forcing by anthropogenic aerosols in the Arctic region.

PMP Estimations at Sparsely Controlled Andinian Basins and Climate Change Projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lagos Zúñiga, M. A.; Vargas, X.

2012-12-01

Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) estimation implies an extensive review of hydrometeorological data and understandig of precipitation formation processes. There exists different methodology processes that apply for their estimations and all of them require a good spatial and temporal representation of storms. The estimation of hydrometeorological PMP on sparsely controlled basins is a difficult task, specially if the studied area has an important orographic effect due to mountains and the mixed precipitation occurrence in the most several storms time period, the main task of this study is to propose and estimate PMP in a sparsely controlled basin, affected by abrupt topography and mixed hidrology basin; also analyzing statystic uncertainties estimations and possible climate changes effects in its estimation. In this study the PMP estimation under statistical and hydrometeorological aproaches (watershed-based and traditional depth area duration analysis) was done in a semi arid zone at Puclaro dam in north Chile. Due to the lack of good spatial meteorological representation at the study zone, we propose a methodology to consider the orographic effects of Los Andes due to orographic effects patterns based in a RCM PRECIS-DGF and annual isoyetal maps. Estimations were validated with precipitation patterns for given winters, considering snow route and rainfall gauges at the preferencial wind direction, finding good results. The estimations are also compared with the highest areal storms in USA, Australia, India and China and with frequency analysis in local rain gauge stations in order to decide about the most adequate approach for the study zone. Climate change projections were evaluated with ECHAM5 GCM model, due to its good quality representation in the seasonality and the magnitude of meteorological variables. Temperature projections, for 2040-2065 period, show that there would be a rise in the catchment contributing area that would lead to an increase of the average liquid precipitation over the basin. Temperature projections would also affect the maximization factors in the calculation of the PMP, increasing it up to 126.6% and 62.5% in scenarios A2 and B1, respectively. These projections are important to be studied due to the implications of PMP in hydrologic design of great hydraulic works as Probable Maximum Flood (PMF). We propose that the methodology presented in this study could be also used in other basins of similar characteristics.

Methodology to Analyse the actual and the future effect of water scarcity on the available water resources in Meguellil watershed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oueslati, I.; Lili-Chabaane, Z.; Shabou, M.; Zribi, M.; Ben Issa, N.; chakroun, H.; Galafassi, D.; Rathwell, K.; Hoff, H.; Pizzigalli, C.

2012-04-01

Scarcity often has its roots in water shortage, and it is in the arid and semiarid regions affected by droughts and wide climate variability, combined with population growth and economic development, that the problems of water scarcity are most acute. The Merguellil watershed, situated in the center of Tunisia, represents exactly this state of fact where the agriculture is the main consumer with about 80% of the total water resources because of the continuous increase and intensification of irrigated area. The surface water can satisfy a very low portion of this demand; consequently, the groundwater is overexploited. The irrigation sector is divided into public and private. While the public irrigated areas are well known, the private ones are not sufficiently controlled mainly the water volumes pumped from the aquifer. Therefore, a sustainable management of all available water resources and meeting as much as possible all water demands, is crucial. To analyze the actual and future water balance of the Merguellil watershed, and to identify critical trends and thresholds and effective solutions, a WEAP (Water Evaluation and Planning system) application has been developed. It utilizes a constrained optimization algorithm to allocate water among competing demands in a basin. The year 2009 is considered as the reference one which represents the basic definition of the water system as it currently exists, and forms the foundation of all scenarios analysis. Three scenarios were compared to the reference one. The first combines between the reduction of 10% in precipitation, as it is forseen by the regional climate model RCA (driven by ECHAM5) that provides statistic data of precipitation until 2050, and the increase of 2% per year in irrigated area in the kairouan plain deduced from the land use maps dating from 1991/1992 to 2009/2010 obtained by multi dates remote sensing data. The second scenario is the application of a deficit irrigation that respects the yield reduction related to each existing crop. The third one tests the effect of the three hypotheses together on the water resources: reduction in precipitation, increase in irrigated area and deficit irrigation. Merguellil WEAP model demonstrates how different management options to face water shortage can be evaluated and compared for future climate, land use change and technology development scenarios.

Sensitivity of the summertime tropical Atlantic precipitation distribution to convective parameterization and model resolution in ECHAM6

DOE PAGES

Siongco, Angela Cheska; Hohenegger, Cathy; Stevens, Bjorn

2017-02-09

A realistic simulation of the tropical Atlantic precipitation distribution remains a challenge for atmospheric general circulation models, owing to their too coarse resolution that makes it necessary to parameterize convection. During boreal summer, models tend to underestimate the northward shift of the tropical Atlantic rain belt, leading to deficient precipitation over land and an anomalous precipitation maximum over the west Atlantic ocean. In this study, the model ECHAM6 is used to test the sensitivity of the precipitation biases to convective parameterization and horizontal resolution. Two sets of sensitivity experiments are performed. In the first set of experiments, modifications are appliedmore » to the convection scheme in order to investigate the relative roles of the trigger, entrainment, and closure formulations. In the second set, the model is run at high resolution with low-resolution boundary conditions in order to identify the relative contributions of a high-resolution atmosphere, orography, and surface. Results show that the dry bias over land in the model can be reduced by weakening the entrainment rate over land. Over ocean, it is found that the anomalous precipitation maximum occurs because of model choices that decrease the sensitivity of convection to the monsoon circulation in the east Atlantic. A reduction of the west Atlantic precipitation bias can be achieved by (i) using a moisture convergence closure, (ii) increasing the resolution of orography, or (iii) enhancing the production of deep convection in the east Atlantic. As a result, the biases over land and over ocean do not impact each other.« less

Slab Ocean El Niño atmospheric feedbacks in Coupled Climate Models and its relationship to the Recharge Oscillator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bayr, Tobias; Wengel, Christian; Latif, Mojib

2016-04-01

Dommenget (2010) found that El Niño-like variability, termed Slab Ocean El Niño, can exist in the absence of ocean dynamics and is driven by the interaction of the atmospheric surface heat fluxes and the heat content of the upper ocean. Further, Dommenget et al. (2014) report the Slab Ocean El Niño is not an artefact of the ECHAM5-AGCM coupled to a slab ocean model. In fact, atmospheric feedbacks crucial to the Slab Ocean El Niño can also be found in many state-of-the-art coupled climate models participating in CMIP3 and CMIP5, so that ENSO in many CMIP models can be understood as a mixed recharge oscillator/Slab Ocean El Niño mode. Here we show further analysis of the Slab Ocean El Niño atmospheric feedbacks in coupled models. The BCCR_CM2.0 climate model from the CMIP3 data base, which has a very large equatorial cold bias, has an El Niño that is mostly driven by Slab Ocean El Niño atmospheric feedbacks and is used as an example to describe Slab Ocean El Niño atmospheric feedbacks in a coupled model. In the BCCR_CM2.0, the ENSO-related variability in the 20°C isotherm (Z20), a measure of upper ocean heat content, is decoupled from the first mode of the seasonal cycle-related variability, while the two are coupled in observations, with ENSO being phase-locked to the seasonal cycle. Further analysis of the seasonal cycle in Z20 using SODA Ocean Reanalysis reveals two different regimes in the seasonal cycle along the equator: The first regime, to which ENSO is phase-locked, extends over the west and central equatorial Pacific and is driven by subsurface ocean dynamics. The second regime, extending in observations only over the cold tongue region, is driven by the seasonal cycle at the sea surface and is shifted by roughly six months relative to the first regime. In a series of experiments with the Kiel Climate Model (KCM) with different mean states due to tuning in the convection parameters, we can show that the strength of the equatorial cold bias and the coupling strength between the seasonal cycle of Z20 and ENSO are anti-correlated, i.e. a strong equatorial cold bias suppresses recharge oscillator dynamics and enhances Slab Ocean El Niño atmospheric feedbacks, supporting the results from the BCCR_CM2.0. This can be explained as with a stronger cold bias the second regime of the seasonal cycle in Z20, which extends in observations only over the small cold tongue region, expands westward and becomes more important, so that it decouples ENSO from the seasonal cycle in Z20. This has implications for some major characteristics of the ENSO like the propagation of SST anomalies, the phase locking of SST to the seasonal cycle, or the nonlinearity of ENSO. Dommenget, D., 2010: The slab ocean El Niño. Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L20701, doi:10.1029/2010GL044888. - - , S. Haase, T. Bayr, and C. Frauen, 2014: Analysis of the Slab Ocean El Niño atmospheric feedbacks in observed and simulated ENSO dynamics. Clim. Dyn., doi:10.1007/s00382-014-2057-0.

Air traffic simulation in chemistry-climate model EMAC 2.41: AirTraf 1.0

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yamashita, Hiroshi; Grewe, Volker; Jöckel, Patrick; Linke, Florian; Schaefer, Martin; Sasaki, Daisuke

2016-09-01

Mobility is becoming more and more important to society and hence air transportation is expected to grow further over the next decades. Reducing anthropogenic climate impact from aviation emissions and building a climate-friendly air transportation system are required for a sustainable development of commercial aviation. A climate optimized routing, which avoids climate-sensitive regions by re-routing horizontally and vertically, is an important measure for climate impact reduction. The idea includes a number of different routing strategies (routing options) and shows a great potential for the reduction. To evaluate this, the impact of not only CO2 but also non-CO2 emissions must be considered. CO2 is a long-lived gas, while non-CO2 emissions are short-lived and are inhomogeneously distributed. This study introduces AirTraf (version 1.0) that performs global air traffic simulations, including effects of local weather conditions on the emissions. AirTraf was developed as a new submodel of the ECHAM5/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) model. Air traffic information comprises Eurocontrol's Base of Aircraft Data (BADA Revision 3.9) and International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) engine performance data. Fuel use and emissions are calculated by the total energy model based on the BADA methodology and Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR) fuel flow method. The flight trajectory optimization is performed by a genetic algorithm (GA) with respect to a selected routing option. In the model development phase, benchmark tests were performed for the great circle and flight time routing options. The first test showed that the great circle calculations were accurate to -0.004 %, compared to those calculated by the Movable Type script. The second test showed that the optimal solution found by the algorithm sufficiently converged to the theoretical true-optimal solution. The difference in flight time between the two solutions is less than 0.01 %. The dependence of the optimal solutions on the initial set of solutions (called population) was analyzed and the influence was small (around 0.01 %). The trade-off between the accuracy of GA optimizations and computational costs is clarified and the appropriate population and generation (one iteration of GA) sizing is discussed. The results showed that a large reduction in the number of function evaluations of around 90 % can be achieved with only a small decrease in the accuracy of less than 0.1 %. Finally, AirTraf simulations are demonstrated with the great circle and the flight time routing options for a typical winter day. The 103 trans-Atlantic flight plans were used, assuming an Airbus A330-301 aircraft. The results confirmed that AirTraf simulates the air traffic properly for the two routing options. In addition, the GA successfully found the time-optimal flight trajectories for the 103 airport pairs, taking local weather conditions into account. The consistency check for the AirTraf simulations confirmed that calculated flight time, fuel consumption, NOx emission index and aircraft weights show good agreement with reference data.

Synoptical situations and meteorological conditions associated to floods in the mouth of rivers in the European part of Russia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matveeva, Tatiana; Gushchina, Daria

2013-04-01

The synoptical situations associated to the various type of floods in the mouth of rivers in European part of Russia are described. The storm surges, water flows and ice-jams are considered for Baltic, Barents sea, White sea, Azov sea, Black sea and Caspian sea regions. It is shown that the specific types of flood may be associated to various synoptical situations. Therefore it is unlikely to introduce the classification of synoptical regimes resulting in specific type of floods. However for each zone under consideration and for each specific flood type it is possible to determine the potential predictors of inundation: i.e. meteorological parameters which are characteristics of all cases of specific flood. There are: • for storm surges - long term wind forcing resulting in seiches in the sea, strong wind speed (the threshold varies in dependence on region), the wind direction orthogonal to the flow of river and strong baric gradient; • for water flows - the abundant precipitation, usually associate with the intensive frontal zone, the sudden change of air temperature resulting in snow melting in spring time; • for ice-jams - the strong temperature gradient extended in north-south direction resulting in negative temperature in the river mouth and positive temperature in the other basin. The probability of occurrence of predictors mentioned above was estimated for modern climate and global warming conditions using the outputs of ECHAM5/MPI-OM model. It is shown that the occurrence of intensive frontal zone and rainfall in the South of Russia will increase (decrease) in summer (winter) under warmer climate conditions which may contribute to the increase of water flows in this region. Maximum of floods occurs during the warm period, we can conclude that global warming increases the risk of floods in Black Sea coast.

Climate variability of heat wave and projection of warming scenario in Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, C. Y.; Chien, Y. Y.; Su, C. J.

2017-12-01

This study examined the climate variability of heat wave (HW) according to air temperature and relative humidity to determine trends of variation and stress threshold in three major cities of Taiwan, Taipei (TP), Taichung (TC) and Kaohsiung (KH), during in the past four decades (1971-2010). According to data available, the wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT) heat stress for the three studied cities was also calculated for the past (2003-2012) and simulated under the projected warming scenario for the end of this century (2075-2099) using ECHAM5/MPIOM-WRF (ECW) dynamic downscaling 5-km resolution Analysis showed that past decade (2001-2010) saw increase not only in number of HW days in all three cities but also the duration of each HW event in TP and KH. Simulation results revealed that ECW captures well the characteristics of data distribution in these three cities during 2003-2012. Under the A1B projection, ECW yielded higher WBGT in all three cities for 2075-2099. The WBGT in TP indicated that the heat stress for 50% of the days in July and August by 2075-2099 will be at danger level (WBGT ³ 31 °C). Even the median WBGT in TC and KH (30.91°C and 30.88°C, respectively), are close to 31°C. Hence, the heat stress in all three cities will either exceed or approach the danger level by the end of this century. Such projection under the global warming trend would necessitate adaptation and mitigation, and the huge impact of dangerous heat stress on public health merits urgent attention for Taiwan.

Implications of Lagrangian transport for coupled chemistry-climate simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stenke, A.; Dameris, M.; Grewe, V.; Garny, H.

2008-10-01

For the first time a purely Lagrangian transport algorithm is applied in a fully coupled chemistry-climate model (CCM). We use the Lagrangian scheme ATTILA for the transport of water vapour, cloud water and chemical trace species in the ECHAM4.L39(DLR)/CHEM (E39C) CCM. The advantage of the Lagrangian approach is that it is numerically non-diffusive and therefore maintains steeper and more realistic gradients than the operational semi-Lagrangian transport scheme. In case of radiatively active species changes in the simulated distributions feed back to model dynamics which in turn affect the modelled transport. The implications of the Lagrangian transport scheme for stratospheric model dynamics and tracer distributions in the upgraded model version E39C-ATTILA (E39C-A) are evaluated by comparison with observations and results of the E39C model with the operational semi-Lagrangian advection scheme. We find that several deficiencies in stratospheric dynamics in E39C seem to originate from a pronounced modelled wet bias and an associated cold bias in the extra-tropical lowermost stratosphere. The reduction of the simulated moisture and temperature bias in E39C-A leads to a significant advancement of stratospheric dynamics in terms of the mean state as well as annual and interannual variability. As a consequence of the favourable numerical characteristics of the Lagrangian transport scheme and the improved model dynamics, E39C-A generally shows more realistic stratospheric tracer distributions: Compared to E39C high stratospheric chlorine (Cly) concentrations extend further downward and agree now well with analyses derived from observations. Therefore E39C-A realistically covers the altitude of maximum ozone depletion in the stratosphere. The location of the ozonopause, i.e. the transition from low tropospheric to high stratospheric ozone values, is also clearly improved in E39C-A. Furthermore, the simulated temporal evolution of stratospheric Cly in the past is realistically reproduced which is an important step towards a more reliable projection of future changes, especially of stratospheric ozone.

A dynamical perspective on the energetic particles precipitation-middle atmosphere interaction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karami, Khalil; Sinnhuber, Miriam; Versick, Stefan; Braesicke, Peter

2015-04-01

Energetic particles including protons, electrons and heavier ions, enter the Earth's atmosphere over polar region of both hemispheres, where the geomagnetic lines are considered to be open and connected to the interplanetary medium. This condition allows direct access for energetic particles of solar or galactic origin to directly deposit their own energy into the middle and upper atmosphere. Such particle precipitations can greatly disturb the chemical composition of the upper and middle atmosphere. At polar latitudes, these particles have the potential to penetrate from thermosphere deep into the mesosphere and in rare occasions into the stratosphere. The most important are changes to the budget of atmospheric nitric oxides, NOy, and to atmospheric reactive hydrogen oxides, HOx, which both contribute to ozone loss in the stratosphere and mesosphere. The chemistry-climate general circulation model ECHAM5/MESSy is used to investigate the impact of changed ozone concentration due to energetic particles precipitation on temperatures and wind fields. The simulated anomalies of both zonal mean temperature and zonal wind suggest that these changes are very unlikely to be caused in situ by ozone depletion and indirect dynamical condition is important. The results of our simulations suggests that ozone perturbation is a starting point for a chain of processes resulting in temperature and circulation changes in many areas of the atmosphere. Different dynamical analysis (e.g., frequency of sudden stratospheric warming, dates of stratospheric final warming, divergence of Eliassen-Palm flux and refractive index of planetary waves) are performed to investigate the impact of ozone anomaly originated from high energetic particle precipitation on middle atmospheric temperature and circulation.

An evaluation of 20th century climate for the Southeastern United States as simulated by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate models

USGS Publications Warehouse

David E. Rupp,

2016-05-05

The 20th century climate for the Southeastern United States and surrounding areas as simulated by global climate models used in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) was evaluated. A suite of statistics that characterize various aspects of the regional climate was calculated from both model simulations and observation-based datasets. CMIP5 global climate models were ranked by their ability to reproduce the observed climate. Differences in the performance of the models between regions of the United States (the Southeastern and Northwestern United States) warrant a regional-scale assessment of CMIP5 models.

Analysis and projections of climate change impacts on flood risks in the Dniester river basin based on the ENSEMBLES RCM data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krakovska, S.; Balabukh, V.; Palamarchuk, L.; Djukel, G.; Gnatiuk, N.

2012-04-01

The pilot project "Reducing vulnerability to extreme floods and climate change in the Dniester river basin" started in May 2010 in the frame of the Dniester-III project which is implemented by OSCE, UNECE and UNEP in close collaboration with authorities and NGOs from Moldova and Ukraine. The project is a part of the Environment and Security initiative (ENVSEC) and aims to reduce risks from climate change - and specifically flooding - for security by improving the adaptive capacity of Ukraine and the Republic of Moldova, taking into account both current climate variability and long-term impacts of climate change on flood risks (http://www1.unece.org/ehlm/platform/display/ClimateChange/Dniester). The Dniester is a river in Eastern Europe, one of the largest rivers of the Carpathians. The Dniester flows from northwest to southeast on the territory of Ukraine, Moldova and Transdniestria. The length of the Dniester is 1352 km with basin area of 72100 km2. The river starts in the Carpathian Mountains at an altitude of 900 m above the sea level and flows into the Dniester estuary, which is connected to the Black Sea. In order to reduce impacts from extreme floods in the Dniester river basin under transient climate conditions the first task of the project was to assess the recent climate changes and particularly extreme precipitation events. For this purpose database of the specially worked out system with inputs from observational data from 1980 up to now of all stations within the Dniester basin was applied. Retrospective analysis of severe hydrometeorological events has revealed that more than 30% of precipitation at warm half of the year are heavy and very heavy rains. And input of such extreme precipitation to annual sum increased during last 30 year by about 7% per decade in the region. Possible reason for this is an intensification of convection in bottom 5km layer of the troposphere which is observed from the middle 90th of the 20th century. During this period an intensive rises of surface air temperature and average temperature of the troposphere (a thickness of 1000-500hPa layer) were found in the investigated region that together with increase of moisture content of the atmosphere led to rise of free convection level and convectively unstable layers of the atmosphere reached almost to 100hPa. The later resulted in an essential increase (almost twice) of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and, accordingly, speed of updrafts. Ensemble of seven runs of Regional Climate Models (RCM) driven by four Atmosphere and Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCM) from the ENSEMBLES database was applied in order to obtain projected values of air temperature and precipitation changes for 2021-2050 period within the Dniester basin on a monthly basis. To make calculations more accurate the Dniester basin was subdivided into 3 regions every with 2 subregions according to river geomorphology and topography. Verification of RCM on control 1971-2000 period by E-Obs and stations' data has allowed to obtain optimum ensembles of RCM for every subregion and climate characteristic. Note, that just two regional climate models REMO and RCA both driven by ECHAM5 provided the best results either for all delineated regions or for the entire Dniester basin. Projections for 2021-2050 period were calculated from the same obtained optimum ensembles of RCM as for the control one. More or less uniform air temperature rise is expected in all subregions and months by 0.7-1.7 oC. But projections for precipitation change are more disperse: within a few per cents for annual sums, but almost 20% less for the middle and lower Dniester in August and October (drought risk) and over 15% more for the high flow of the river in September and December (flood risk). Indices of extremes recommended by ECA&D were calculated from daily data of REMO and RCA A1B runs for control and projected periods. The analysis of precipitation extremes (SDII, RX1day, RX5day, etc.) has demonstrated that two models have similar projections for the middle part of the river and opposite tendencies for the upper and lower Dniester. In any case for all regions number of events with very heavy rains (>30mm) and their inputs in monthly and annual sums will increase make flash flood risks more pronounced.

A Novel Tool for Simulating Aerosol-cloud Interactions with a Sectional Model Implemented to a Large-Eddy Simulator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tonttila, J.; Romakkaniemi, S.; Kokkola, H.; Maalick, Z.; Korhonen, H.; Liqing, H.

2015-12-01

A new cloud-resolving model setup for studying aerosol-cloud interactions, with a special emphasis on partitioning and wet deposition of semi-volatile aerosol species, is presented. The model is based on modified versions of two well-established model components: the Large-Eddy Simulator (LES) UCLALES, and the sectional aerosol model SALSA, previously employed in the ECHAM climate model family. Implementation of the UCLALES-SALSA is described in detail. As the basis for this work, SALSA has been extended to include a sectional representation of the size distributions of cloud droplets and precipitation. Microphysical processes operating on clouds and precipitation have also been added. Given our main motivation, the cloud droplet size bins are defined according to the dry particle diameter. The droplet wet diameter is solved dynamically through condensation equations, but represents an average droplet diameter inside each size bin. This approach allows for accurate tracking of the aerosol properties inside clouds, but minimizes the computational cost. Since the actual cloud droplet diameter is not fully resolved inside the size bins, processes such as precipitation formation rely on parameterizations. For realistic growth of drizzle drops to rain, which is critical for the aerosol wet deposition, the precipitation size bins are defined according to the actual drop size. With these additions, the implementation of the SALSA model replaces most of the microphysical and thermodynamical components within the LES. The cloud properties and aerosol-cloud interactions simulated by the model are analysed and evaluated against detailed cloud microphysical boxmodel results and in-situ aerosol-cloud interaction observations from the Puijo measurement station in Kuopio, Finland. The ability of the model to reproduce the impacts of wet deposition on the aerosol population is demonstrated.

Kinematic and diabatic vertical velocity climatologies from a chemistry climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marinke Hoppe, Charlotte; Ploeger, Felix; Konopka, Paul; Müller, Rolf

2016-05-01

The representation of vertical velocity in chemistry climate models is a key element for the representation of the large-scale Brewer-Dobson circulation in the stratosphere. Here, we diagnose and compare the kinematic and diabatic vertical velocities in the ECHAM/Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy) Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) model. The calculation of kinematic vertical velocity is based on the continuity equation, whereas diabatic vertical velocity is computed using diabatic heating rates. Annual and monthly zonal mean climatologies of vertical velocity from a 10-year simulation are provided for both kinematic and diabatic vertical velocity representations. In general, both vertical velocity patterns show the main features of the stratospheric circulation, namely, upwelling at low latitudes and downwelling at high latitudes. The main difference in the vertical velocity pattern is a more uniform structure for diabatic and a noisier structure for kinematic vertical velocity. Diabatic vertical velocities show higher absolute values both in the upwelling branch in the inner tropics and in the downwelling regions in the polar vortices. Further, there is a latitudinal shift of the tropical upwelling branch in boreal summer between the two vertical velocity representations with the tropical upwelling region in the diabatic representation shifted southward compared to the kinematic case. Furthermore, we present mean age of air climatologies from two transport schemes in EMAC using these different vertical velocities and analyze the impact of residual circulation and mixing processes on the age of air. The age of air distributions show a hemispheric difference pattern in the stratosphere with younger air in the Southern Hemisphere and older air in the Northern Hemisphere using the transport scheme with diabatic vertical velocities. Further, the age of air climatology from the transport scheme using diabatic vertical velocities shows a younger mean age of air in the inner tropical upwelling branch and an older mean age in the extratropical tropopause region.

Ranking GCM Estimates of Twentieth Century Precipitation Seasonality in the Western U.S. and its Influence on Floristic Provinces.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cole, K. L.; Eischeid, J. K.; Garfin, G. M.; Ironside, K.; Cobb, N. S.

2008-12-01

Floristic provinces of the western United States (west of 100W) can be segregated into three regions defined by significant seasonal precipitation during the months of: 1) November-March (Mediterranean); 2) July- September (Monsoonal); or, 3) May-June (Rocky Mountain). This third region is best defined by the absence of the late spring-early summer drought that affects regions 1 and 2. Each of these precipitation regimes is characterized by distinct vegetation types and fire seasonality adapted to that particular cycle of seasonal moisture availability and deficit. Further, areas where these regions blend from one to another can support even more complex seasonal patterns and resulting distinctive vegetation types. As a result, modeling the effects of climates on these ecosystems requires confidence that GCMs can at least approximate these sub- continental seasonal precipitation patterns. We evaluated the late Twentieth Century (1950-1999 AD) estimates of annual precipitation seasonality produced by 22 GCMs contained within the IPCC Fourth Assessment (AR4). These modeled estimates were compared to values from the PRISM dataset, extrapolated from station data, over the same historical period for the 3 seasonal periods defined above. The correlations between GCM estimates and PRISM values were ranked using 4 measures: 1) A map pattern relationship based on the correlation coefficient, 2) A map pattern relationship based on the congruence coefficient, 3) The ratio of simulated/observed area averaged precipitation based on the seasonal precipitation amounts, and, 4) The ratio of simulated/observed area averaged precipitation based on the seasonal precipitation percentages of the annual total. For each of the four metrics, the rank order of models was very similar. The ranked order of the performance of the different models quantified aspects of the model performance visible in the mapped results. While some models represented the seasonal patterns very well, others showed little correspondence with the regional patterns, especially for the summer monsoon period. These sub-continental patterns were especially well simulated over this period by the UKMO-HadGEM1, ECHAM5/MPI-OM, and the MRI-CGCM2 model runs.

Late Cenozoic Climate Change and its Implications on the Denudation of Orogen Syntaxes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mutz, Sebastian; Ehlers, Todd

2017-04-01

The denudation history of active orogens is often interpreted in the context of modern climate gradients. Despite the influence of climatic conditions on erosion rates, information about paleoclimate evolution is often not available and thus not considered when denudation histories are interpreted. In this study, we analyze output from paleoclimate simulations conducted with ECHAM5-wiso at T159 (ca. 80x80km) resolution. Specifically, we analyze simulations of pre-industrial (PI, pre-1850), Mid-Holocene (MH, ca. 6ka), Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ca. 21ka) and Pliocene (PLIO, ca. 3ka) climates and focus on a selection of orogen syntaxes as study regions (e.g. Himalaya, SE Alaska, Cascadia, and Central Andes). For the selected region, we carry out a cluster analysis using a hybrid of hierarchical and k-means clustering procedures using mean annual temperature (MAT), temperature amplitude, mean annual precipitation (MAP), precipitation amplitude and u-wind and v-wind in different months to provide a general overview of paleoclimates in the study regions. Additionally, we quantify differences between paleoclimates by applying two-group linear discrimination analyses to the simulation output for a similar selection of variables. Results indicate the largest differences to the PI climate are observed for the LGM and PLIO climates in the form of widespread cooling and reduced precipitation in the LGM and warming and enhanced precipitation during the PLIO. These global trends can be observed for most locations in the investigated areas, but the strength varies regionally and the trends in precipitation are less uniform than trends in temperatures. The LGM climate shows the largest deviation in annual precipitation from the PI climate, and shows enhanced precipitation in the temperate Andes, and coastal regions for both SE Alaska and the US Pacific Northwest Pacific. Furthermore, LGM precipitation is reduced in the western Himalayas and enhanced in the eastern Himalayas, resulting in a shift of the wettest regional climates eastward along the orogen towards the eastern syntax. The cluster-analysis results also suggest more climatic variability across latitudes east of the Andes in the PLIO climate than in other time-slice experiments conducted here. Results from the discriminant analysis show that the quantified differences in climate and the relative contribution to these differences by each of the analyzed parameters are highly variable in space for each of the paleoclimates. Taken together, these results highlight significant changes in Late Cenozoic regional climatology over active orogens on time scales ranging from glacial cycles to geologic. As a result, future interpretation of recent and paleo denudation rates in these areas from sediment flux inventories, cosmogenic radionuclides, or low-temperature thermochronology techniques warrant careful consideration of these changes.

Global aerosol effects on convective clouds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wagner, Till; Stier, Philip

2013-04-01

Atmospheric aerosols affect cloud properties, and thereby the radiation balance of the planet and the water cycle. The influence of aerosols on clouds is dominated by increase of cloud droplet and ice crystal numbers (CDNC/ICNC) due to enhanced aerosols acting as cloud condensation and ice nuclei. In deep convective clouds this increase in CDNC/ICNC is hypothesised to increase precipitation because of cloud invigoration through enhanced freezing and associated increased latent heat release caused by delayed warm rain formation. Satellite studies robustly show an increase of cloud top height (CTH) and precipitation with increasing aerosol optical depth (AOD, as proxy for aerosol amount). To represent aerosol effects and study their influence on convective clouds in the global climate aerosol model ECHAM-HAM, we substitute the standard convection parameterisation, which uses one mean convective cloud for each grid column, with the convective cloud field model (CCFM), which simulates a spectrum of convective clouds, each with distinct values of radius, mixing ratios, vertical velocity, height and en/detrainment. Aerosol activation and droplet nucleation in convective updrafts at cloud base is the primary driver for microphysical aerosol effects. To produce realistic estimates for vertical velocity at cloud base we use an entraining dry parcel sub cloud model which is triggered by perturbations of sensible and latent heat at the surface. Aerosol activation at cloud base is modelled with a mechanistic, Köhler theory based, scheme, which couples the aerosols to the convective microphysics. Comparison of relationships between CTH and AOD, and precipitation and AOD produced by this novel model and satellite based estimates show general agreement. Through model experiments and analysis of the model cloud processes we are able to investigate the main drivers for the relationship between CTH / precipitation and AOD.

HEPPA-II model-measurement intercomparison project: EPP indirect effects during the dynamically perturbed NH winter 2008-2009

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Funke, Bernd; Ball, William; Bender, Stefan; Gardini, Angela; Harvey, V. Lynn; Lambert, Alyn; López-Puertas, Manuel; Marsh, Daniel R.; Meraner, Katharina; Nieder, Holger; Päivärinta, Sanna-Mari; Pérot, Kristell; Randall, Cora E.; Reddmann, Thomas; Rozanov, Eugene; Schmidt, Hauke; Seppälä, Annika; Sinnhuber, Miriam; Sukhodolov, Timofei; Stiller, Gabriele P.; Tsvetkova, Natalia D.; Verronen, Pekka T.; Versick, Stefan; von Clarmann, Thomas; Walker, Kaley A.; Yushkov, Vladimir

2017-03-01

We compare simulations from three high-top (with upper lid above 120 km) and five medium-top (with upper lid around 80 km) atmospheric models with observations of odd nitrogen (NOx = NO + NO2), temperature, and carbon monoxide from seven satellite instruments (ACE-FTS on SciSat, GOMOS, MIPAS, and SCIAMACHY on Envisat, MLS on Aura, SABER on TIMED, and SMR on Odin) during the Northern Hemisphere (NH) polar winter 2008/2009. The models included in the comparison are the 3-D chemistry transport model 3dCTM, the ECHAM5/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) model, FinROSE, the Hamburg Model of the Neutral and Ionized Atmosphere (HAMMONIA), the Karlsruhe Simulation Model of the Middle Atmosphere (KASIMA), the modelling tools for SOlar Climate Ozone Links studies (SOCOL and CAO-SOCOL), and the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM4). The comparison focuses on the energetic particle precipitation (EPP) indirect effect, that is, the polar winter descent of NOx largely produced by EPP in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere. A particular emphasis is given to the impact of the sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) in January 2009 and the subsequent elevated stratopause (ES) event associated with enhanced descent of mesospheric air. The chemistry climate model simulations have been nudged toward reanalysis data in the troposphere and stratosphere while being unconstrained above. An odd nitrogen upper boundary condition obtained from MIPAS observations has further been applied to medium-top models. Most models provide a good representation of the mesospheric tracer descent in general, and the EPP indirect effect in particular, during the unperturbed (pre-SSW) period of the NH winter 2008/2009. The observed NOx descent into the lower mesosphere and stratosphere is generally reproduced within 20 %. Larger discrepancies of a few model simulations could be traced back either to the impact of the models' gravity wave drag scheme on the polar wintertime meridional circulation or to a combination of prescribed NOx mixing ratio at the uppermost model layer and low vertical resolution. In March-April, after the ES event, however, modelled mesospheric and stratospheric NOx distributions deviate significantly from the observations. The too-fast and early downward propagation of the NOx tongue, encountered in most simulations, coincides with a temperature high bias in the lower mesosphere (0.2-0.05 hPa), likely caused by an overestimation of descent velocities. In contrast, upper-mesospheric temperatures (at 0.05-0.001 hPa) are generally underestimated by the high-top models after the onset of the ES event, being indicative for too-slow descent and hence too-low NOx fluxes. As a consequence, the magnitude of the simulated NOx tongue is generally underestimated by these models. Descending NOx amounts simulated with medium-top models are on average closer to the observations but show a large spread of up to several hundred percent. This is primarily attributed to the different vertical model domains in which the NOx upper boundary condition is applied. In general, the intercomparison demonstrates the ability of state-of-the-art atmospheric models to reproduce the EPP indirect effect in dynamically and geomagnetically quiescent NH winter conditions. The encountered differences between observed and simulated NOx, CO, and temperature distributions during the perturbed phase of the 2009 NH winter, however, emphasize the need for model improvements in the dynamical representation of elevated stratopause events in order to allow for a better description of the EPP indirect effect under these particular conditions.

Climate Change Scenarios in the Yucatan Peninsula to the year 2020

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Orellana, R.; Espadas, C.; Conde, C.; Gay, C.

2010-03-01

A topic that has not been sufficiently analyzed is that the global warming is already affecting, and that it will have worst consequences in those regions with transitional climates, which have more sensibility to changes. This is the case of the Yucatan Peninsula which is semi-arid in their northern portion, and toward the south is subhumid, with a tendency to be more rainy toward the south. To have an estimation of what could happen in the future, the Intergovernmental Panel of Climatic Change (IPCC) has promoted the use of General Circulation Models (GCM), as well as the construction of possible emission scenarios that integrate different global and regional socioeconomic and demographic conditions, which project then a possible increase of emissions of greenhouse gases. These conditions are recognized as the decisive forces that will determine the variations of temperature and of precipitation. These projections are useful for the analysis of climatic change, and in particular for the assessments of the possible impacts and of the initiatives of adaptation and of mitigation that should be implemented in every country or region. In Mexico, most of those evaluations of climate change have been carried out generally at country level. For that reason, it is necessary to direct the research at regional level. In this work, we evaluated the potential climatic changes on the Yucatan Peninsula, considering the different changes of temperature and precipitation as a consequence for different emission scenarios and for the horizon 2020. To project the environmental responses of the region, we used as a base scenario the available temperature and precipitation information of the period 1961-1990, registered in 85 meteorological stations of the peninsula. With these data, we generated climate change scenarios using the outputs of four General Circulation Models: HADLEY, ECHAM, GFDL and CGCM, and the emission scenarios A1FI, A2, B1 and B2. The outputs of these models were introduced in a Geographical Information System (GIS), represented cartographically and were corroborated geostatistically. The results are shown through a collection of maps that constitutes the possible changes of the different elements of the climate under ten possible climate change scenarios. One main result that we obtained was that for the horizon 2020, there is great uncertainty on the temperature increments and on the changes of the projected precipitation amounts. Even with that uncertainty, extreme climatic scenarios were obtained. For example, the scenario generated with the Hadley model, and with the emission scenario A1FI, projects that the distribution of climates will radically change in the peninsula. The region with climates BSo w, which is the driest of the semi-arid climates, will extend from Sisal to the east of Río Lagartos, in the area of San Felipe. Also, this scenario projects that the Awo w" warm climate, will be distributed in the occidental middle portion of the peninsula, from Mocochá and Mérida in the north, and to the boarder zone of Campeche and Guatemala, in the south. The Ax’(wo) w" climate will be present in a very extended area, from the east of the state of Yucatán, until the east of Campeche and the west of Quintana Roo. The cartographic representation of the ten possible scenarios will allow us to contrast the possible climate change scenarios, and could support the localization of the most vulnerable areas, and to determine also what kind of adaptation and mitigation measures should start to be established i for regions and sectors that are very relevant in the peninsula, such as rainfed agriculture, apiculture (beekeeping), achiote production, and eco-tourism, for example.

AOD trends during 2001-2010 from observations and model simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pozzer, A.; de Meij, A.; Yoon, J.; Tost, H.; Georgoulias, A. K.; Astitha, M.

2015-05-01

The aerosol optical depth (AOD) trend between 2001 and 2010 is estimated globally and regionally from observations and results from simulations with the EMAC (ECHAM5/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry) model. Although interannual variability is applied only to anthropogenic and biomass-burning emissions, the model is able to quantitatively reproduce the AOD trends as observed by the MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) satellite sensor, while some discrepancies are found when compared to MISR (Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer) and SeaWIFS (Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor) observations. Thanks to an additional simulation without any change in emissions, it is shown that decreasing AOD trends over the US and Europe are due to the decrease in the emissions, while over the Sahara Desert and the Middle East region, the meteorological changes play a major role. Over Southeast Asia, both meteorology and emissions changes are equally important in defining AOD trends. Additionally, decomposing the regional AOD trends into individual aerosol components reveals that the soluble components are the most dominant contributors to the total AOD, as their influence on the total AOD is enhanced by the aerosol water content.

An assessment of wind energy potential in Iberia under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liberato, Margarida L. R.; Santos, João A.; Rochinha, Carlos; Reyers, Mark; Pinto, Joaquim G.

2015-04-01

Wind energy potential in Iberia is assessed for recent-past (1961-2000) and future (2041-2070) climates. For recent-past, a COSMO-CLM simulation driven by ERA-40 is used. COSMO-CLM simulations driven by ECHAM5 following the A1B scenario are used for future projections. A 2 MW rated power wind turbine is selected. Mean potentials, inter-annual variability and irregularity are discussed on annual/seasonal scales and on a grid resolution of 20 km. For detailed regional assessments eight target sites are considered. For recent-past conditions, the highest daily mean potentials are found in winter over northern and eastern Iberia, particularly on high-elevation or coastal regions. In northwestern Iberia, daily potentials frequently reach maximum wind energy output (50 MWh day-1), particularly in winter. Southern Andalucía reveals high potentials throughout the year, whereas the Ebro valley and central-western coast show high potentials in summer. The irregularity in annual potentials is moderate (<15% of mean output), but exacerbated in winter (40%). Climate change projections show significant decreases over most of Iberia (<2 MWh day-1). The strong enhancement of autumn potentials in Southern Andalucía is noteworthy (>2 MWh day-1). The northward displacement of North Atlantic westerly winds (autumn-spring) and the strengthening of easterly flows (summer) are key drivers of future projections. Santos, J.A.; Rochinha, C.; Liberato, M.L.R.; Reyers, M.; Pinto, J.G. (2015) Projected changes in wind energy potentials over Iberia. Renewable Energy, 75, 1: 68-80. doi: 10.1016/j.renene.2014.09.026 Acknowledgements: This work was partially supported by FEDER (Fundo Europeu de Desenvolvimento Regional) funds through the COMPETE (Programa Operacional Factores de Competitividade) and by national funds through FCT (Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, Portugal) under project STORMEx FCOMP-01-0124-FEDER-019524 (PTDC/AAC-CLI/121339/2010).

Climate Change Impact Study with CMIP5 and Comparison with CMIP3

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, J.; Yin, H.; Reyes, E.; Chung, F. I.

2016-12-01

One of significant uncertainties in climate change impact study is the selection of climate model projection including the choosing of greenhouse gas emission scenarios. With the new generation of climate model projection, CMIP5, coming into use, CCTAG selected 11 climate models and two RCPs (rcp4.5 and rcp8.5) for California. Previous DWR climate change study was based on 6 CMIP3 climate models and two emission scenarios (SRES A2 and B1) which were selected by CAT. It is an unanswered question that how the selection of these climate model projections and emission scenarios affect the assessment of climate change impact on future water supply of California CVP/SWP project. This work will run the water planning model CalSim in DWR with 44 CMIP5 and 12 CMIP3 climate model projections to investigate the sensitivity of climate model impact study on future water supply in the CVP/SWP region to the section of climate model projection. It was found that in 2060 CMIP5 projects the wetting trend in Northern California while CMIP3 projects the drying trend in the entire California on the average. And CMIP5 projects about half-degree more warming than CMIP3. As a result, Sacramento River rim inflow increases by 8% for CMIP5 and reduces by 3% for CMIP3. In spite of this difference in rim inflow, north of Delta carryover storage will be reduced both under CMIP5 (14%) and under CMIP3 (23%) in 2060. And south Delta export will be reduced both for CMIP5 (8%) and for CMIP3 (15%). Thus, The CC impact uncertainty caused by the selection of climate model projection (CMIP3 vs CMIP5) is about 7% in terms of Delta export and about 9% in terms of north of Delta carryover storage. This uncertainty is more than the one caused by the selection of sea level rise in that the climate change impact uncertainty caused by the selection of sea level rise (Zero vs 1.5ft SLR) is about 5% in terms of Delta export and about 4-5% in terms of North of Delta carryover storage.

Diurnal variations of BrONO2 observed by MIPAS-B at midlatitudes and in the Arctic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wetzel, Gerald; Oelhaf, Hermann; Höpfner, Michael; Friedl-Vallon, Felix; Ebersoldt, Andreas; Gulde, Thomas; Kazarski, Sebastian; Kirner, Oliver; Kleinert, Anne; Maucher, Guido; Nordmeyer, Hans; Orphal, Johannes; Ruhnke, Roland; Sinnhuber, Björn-Martin

2017-12-01

The first stratospheric measurements of the diurnal variation in the inorganic bromine (Bry) reservoir species BrONO2 around sunrise and sunset are reported. Arctic flights of the balloon-borne Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS-B) were carried out from Kiruna (68° N, Sweden) in January 2010 and March 2011 inside the stratospheric polar vortices where diurnal variations of BrONO2 around sunrise have been observed. High nighttime BrONO2 volume mixing ratios of up to 21 pptv (parts per trillion by volume) were detected in late winter 2011 in the absence of polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs). In contrast, the amount of measured BrONO2 was significantly lower in January 2010 due to low available NO2 amounts (for the build-up of BrONO2), the heterogeneous destruction of BrONO2 on PSC particles, and the gas-phase interaction of BrO (the source to form BrONO2) with ClO. A further balloon flight took place at midlatitudes from Timmins (49° N, Canada) in September 2014. Mean BrONO2 mixing ratios of 22 pptv were observed after sunset in the altitude region between 21 and 29 km. Measurements are compared and discussed with the results of a multi-year simulation performed with the chemistry climate model ECHAM5/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC). The calculated temporal variation in BrONO2 largely reproduces the balloon-borne observations. Using the nighttime simulated ratio between BrONO2 and Bry, the amount of Bry observed by MIPAS-B was estimated to be about 21-25 pptv in the lower stratosphere.

Aerosol processing in stratiform clouds in ECHAM6-HAM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neubauer, David; Lohmann, Ulrike; Hoose, Corinna

2013-04-01

Aerosol processing in stratiform clouds by uptake into cloud particles, collision-coalescence, chemical processing inside the cloud particles and release back into the atmosphere has important effects on aerosol concentration, size distribution, chemical composition and mixing state. Aerosol particles can act as cloud condensation nuclei. Cloud droplets can take up further aerosol particles by collisions. Atmospheric gases may also be transferred into the cloud droplets and undergo chemical reactions, e.g. the production of atmospheric sulphate. Aerosol particles are also processed in ice crystals. They may be taken up by homogeneous freezing of cloud droplets below -38° C or by heterogeneous freezing above -38° C. This includes immersion freezing of already immersed aerosol particles in the droplets and contact freezing of particles colliding with a droplet. Many clouds do not form precipitation and also much of the precipitation evaporates before it reaches the ground. The water soluble part of the aerosol particles concentrates in the hydrometeors and together with the insoluble part forms a single, mixed, larger particle, which is released. We have implemented aerosol processing into the current version of the general circulation model ECHAM6 (Stevens et al., 2013) coupled to the aerosol module HAM (Stier et al., 2005). ECHAM6-HAM solves prognostic equations for the cloud droplet number and ice crystal number concentrations. In the standard version of HAM, seven modes are used to describe the total aerosol. The modes are divided into soluble/mixed and insoluble modes and the number concentrations and masses of different chemical components (sulphate, black carbon, organic carbon, sea salt and mineral dust) are prognostic variables. We extended this by an explicit representation of aerosol particles in cloud droplets and ice crystals in stratiform clouds similar to Hoose et al. (2008a,b). Aerosol particles in cloud droplets are represented by 5 tracers for the chemical components as well as 5 tracers for aerosol particles in ice crystals. This allows simulations of aerosol processing in warm, mixed-phase (e.g. through the Bergeron-Findeisen process) and ice clouds. The fixed scavenging ratios used for wet deposition in clouds in standard HAM are replaced by an explicit treatment of collision of cloud droplets/ice crystals with interstitial aerosol particles. Nucleation scavenging of aerosol particles by acting as cloud condensation nuclei or ice nuclei, freezing and evaporation of cloud droplets and melting and sublimation of ice crystals are treated explicitly. In extension to previous studies, aerosol particles from evaporating precipitation are released to modes which correspond to their size. Cloud processing of aerosol particles changes their size distribution and hence influences cloud droplet and ice crystal number concentrations as well as precipitation rate, which in turn affects aerosol concentrations. Results will be presented at the conference. Hoose et al., JGR, 2008a, doi: 10.1029/2007JD009251 Hoose et al., ACP, 2008b, doi: 10.5194/acp-8-6939-2008 Stevens et al., 2013, submitted Stier et al., ACP, 2005, doi: 10.5194/acp-5-1125-2005

Denitrification, dehydration and ozone loss during the 2015/2016 Arctic winter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khosrawi, Farahnaz; Kirner, Oliver; Sinnhuber, Björn-Martin; Johansson, Sören; Höpfner, Michael; Santee, Michelle L.; Froidevaux, Lucien; Ungermann, Jörn; Ruhnke, Roland; Woiwode, Wolfgang; Oelhaf, Hermann; Braesicke, Peter

2017-11-01

The 2015/2016 Arctic winter was one of the coldest stratospheric winters in recent years. A stable vortex formed by early December and the early winter was exceptionally cold. Cold pool temperatures dropped below the nitric acid trihydrate (NAT) existence temperature of about 195 K, thus allowing polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) to form. The low temperatures in the polar stratosphere persisted until early March, allowing chlorine activation and catalytic ozone destruction. Satellite observations indicate that sedimentation of PSC particles led to denitrification as well as dehydration of stratospheric layers. Model simulations of the 2015/2016 Arctic winter nudged toward European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) analysis data were performed with the atmospheric chemistry-climate model ECHAM5/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) for the Polar Stratosphere in a Changing Climate (POLSTRACC) campaign. POLSTRACC is a High Altitude and Long Range Research Aircraft (HALO) mission aimed at the investigation of the structure, composition and evolution of the Arctic upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS). The chemical and physical processes involved in Arctic stratospheric ozone depletion, transport and mixing processes in the UTLS at high latitudes, PSCs and cirrus clouds are investigated. In this study, an overview of the chemistry and dynamics of the 2015/2016 Arctic winter as simulated with EMAC is given. Further, chemical-dynamical processes such as denitrification, dehydration and ozone loss during the 2015/2016 Arctic winter are investigated. Comparisons to satellite observations by the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (Aura/MLS) as well as to airborne measurements with the Gimballed Limb Observer for Radiance Imaging of the Atmosphere (GLORIA) performed aboard HALO during the POLSTRACC campaign show that the EMAC simulations nudged toward ECMWF analysis generally agree well with observations. We derive a maximum polar stratospheric O3 loss of ˜ 2 ppmv or 117 DU in terms of column ozone in mid-March. The stratosphere was denitrified by about 4-8 ppbv HNO3 and dehydrated by about 0.6-1 ppmv H2O from the middle to the end of February. While ozone loss was quite strong, but not as strong as in 2010/2011, denitrification and dehydration were so far the strongest observed in the Arctic stratosphere in at least the past 10 years.

Global combustion sources of organic aerosols: model comparison with 84 AMS factor-analysis data sets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsimpidi, Alexandra P.; Karydis, Vlassis A.; Pandis, Spyros N.; Lelieveld, Jos

2016-07-01

Emissions of organic compounds from biomass, biofuel, and fossil fuel combustion strongly influence the global atmospheric aerosol load. Some of the organics are directly released as primary organic aerosol (POA). Most are emitted in the gas phase and undergo chemical transformations (i.e., oxidation by hydroxyl radical) and form secondary organic aerosol (SOA). In this work we use the global chemistry climate model ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) with a computationally efficient module for the description of organic aerosol (OA) composition and evolution in the atmosphere (ORACLE). The tropospheric burden of open biomass and anthropogenic (fossil and biofuel) combustion particles is estimated to be 0.59 and 0.63 Tg, respectively, accounting for about 30 and 32 % of the total tropospheric OA load. About 30 % of the open biomass burning and 10 % of the anthropogenic combustion aerosols originate from direct particle emissions, whereas the rest is formed in the atmosphere. A comprehensive data set of aerosol mass spectrometer (AMS) measurements along with factor-analysis results from 84 field campaigns across the Northern Hemisphere are used to evaluate the model results. Both the AMS observations and the model results suggest that over urban areas both POA (25-40 %) and SOA (60-75 %) contribute substantially to the overall OA mass, whereas further downwind and in rural areas the POA concentrations decrease substantially and SOA dominates (80-85 %). EMAC does a reasonable job in reproducing POA and SOA levels during most of the year. However, it tends to underpredict POA and SOA concentrations during winter indicating that the model misses wintertime sources of OA (e.g., residential biofuel use) and SOA formation pathways (e.g., multiphase oxidation).

Soil frost-induced soil moisture precipitation feedback and effects on atmospheric states

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hagemann, Stefan; Blome, Tanja; Ekici, Altug; Beer, Christian

2016-04-01

Permafrost or perennially frozen ground is an important part of the terrestrial cryosphere; roughly one quarter of Earth's land surface is underlain by permafrost. As it is a thermal phenomenon, its characteristics are highly dependent on climatic factors. The impact of the currently observed warming, which is projected to persist during the coming decades due to anthropogenic CO2 input, certainly has effects for the vast permafrost areas of the high northern latitudes. The quantification of these effects, however, is scientifically still an open question. This is partly due to the complexity of the system, where several feedbacks are interacting between land and atmosphere, sometimes counterbalancing each other. Moreover, until recently, many global circulation models (GCMs) and Earth system models (ESMs) lacked the sufficient representation of permafrost physics in their land surface schemes. Within the European Union FP7 project PAGE21, the land surface scheme JSBACH of the Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology ESM (MPI-ESM) has been equipped with the representation of relevant physical processes for permafrost studies. These processes include the effects of freezing and thawing of soil water for both energy and water cycles, thermal properties depending on soil water and ice contents, and soil moisture movement being influenced by the presence of soil ice. In the present study, it will be analysed how these permafrost relevant processes impact large-scale hydrology and climate over northern hemisphere high latitude land areas. For this analysis, the atmosphere-land part of MPI-ESM, ECHAM6-JSBACH, is driven by prescribed observed SST and sea ice in an AMIP2-type setup with and without the newly implemented permafrost processes. Results show a large improvement in the simulated discharge. On one hand this is related to an improved snowmelt peak of runoff due to frozen soil in spring. On the other hand a subsequent reduction of soil moisture leads to a positive land atmosphere feedback to precipitation over the high latitudes, which reduces the model's wet biases in precipitation and evapotranspiration during the summer. This is noteworthy as soil moisture - atmosphere feedbacks have previously not been in the research focus over the high latitudes. These results point out the importance of high latitude physical processes at the land surface for the regional climate.

Biases in Global Reanalysis Datasets Undermine Intraseasonal Prediction Skill Xiouhua Fu1, Bin Wang, June-Yi Lee, Wanqiu Wang, and Li Gao 1International Pacific Research Center (IPRC), SOEST, University of Hawaii at Manoa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fu, J. X.

2010-12-01

Predictability of Intra-Seasonal Oscillation (ISO) relies on both initial conditions and lower boundary conditions (or atmosphere-ocean interaction). The atmospheric reanalysis datasets are commonly used as initial conditions. Here, the biases of three reanalysis datasets (NCEP_R1, _R2, and ERA_Interim) in describing ISO were revealed and the impacts of these biases as initial conditions on ISO prediction skills were assessed. A signal recovery method is proposed to improve ISO prediction. All three reanalysis datasets underestimate the intensity of the equatorial eastward-propagating ISO. When these reanalyses are used as initial conditions in the ECHAM4-UH hybrid coupled model (UH_HCM hereinafter), skillful ISO prediction reaches only about one week for both the 850-hPa zonal winds (U850) and rainfall over Southeast Asia and the global tropics. An enhanced nudging of divergence field is shown to significantly improve the initial conditions, resulting in an extension of the skillful rainfall prediction by 2-3 days and U850 prediction by 5-10 days. After recovering the ISO signals in the original reanalyses, the resultant initial conditions contain ISO strength much closer to the observed. Use of these signal-recovered reanalyses as initial conditions extends the skillful prediction of U850 and rainfall, respectively, to 23 and 18 days over Southeast Asia, and to 20 and 10 days over the global tropics. This finding underlines the urgent need to improve data assimilation systems and observations in advancement of ISO prediction by offering better initial conditions. It is also found that small-scale synoptic weather disturbances in initial conditions generally increase ISO prediction skill. The UH_HCM has better rainfall prediction than the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) over Southeast Asia and both models suffer the prediction barrier over the Maritime Continent.

Diurnal variations of BrONO2 observed by MIPAS-B in the Arctic, at mid-latitudes, and in the Tropics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wetzel, Gerald; Oelhaf, Hermann; Höpfner, Michael; Friedl-Vallon, Felix; Ebersoldt, Andreas; Gulde, Thomas; Kazarski, Sebastian; Kirner, Oliver; Kleinert, Anne; Maucher, Guido; Nordmeyer, Hans; Orphal, Johannes; Ruhnke, Roland; Sinnhuber, Björn-Martin

2017-04-01

Despite being much less abundant, the contribution of bromine to stratospheric ozone depletion is similar to that of chlorine. Moreover, against the background of abating levels of chlorine in the stratosphere, bromine is important due to its natural sources. The two major inorganic bromine (Bry) species in the lower stratosphere are bromine oxide (BrO) and bromine nitrate (BrONO2). The relative abundances of these molecules are mainly controlled by photochemical processes. The first stratospheric measurements of the diurnal variation of BrONO2 around sunrise and sunset are reported. Arctic flights of the balloon-borne Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS-B) were carried out from Kiruna (68°N, Sweden) inside the stratospheric polar vortices in January 2010 and March 2011 where diurnal variations of BrONO2 around sunrise have been observed. High nighttime BrONO2 volume mixing ratios of up to 22 parts per trillion by volume (pptv) were detected in the late winter 2011 in the absence of polar stratospheric clouds (PSC). In contrast, the amount of measured BrONO2 was significantly lower in January 2010 partly due to heterogeneous destruction of BrONO2 on PSC particles. A further balloon flight took place at mid-latitudes from Timmins (49°N, Canada) in September 2014. Mean BrONO2 mixing ratios of 23 pptv were observed after sunset in the altitude region between 22 and 29 km. Day- and nighttime profiles of BrONO2 were also inferred from limb emission spectra recorded during a tropical balloon flight from Teresina (5°S, Brazil). Significant differences of the stratospheric BrONO2 amount with up to 23 pptv during night and up to 12 pptv during day were found. Measurements are discussed in comparison to a multi-year simulation performed with the Chemistry Climate Model EMAC (ECHAM5/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry). The combination of model simulations with MIPAS-B measurements gives an estimate of stratospheric total inorganic bromine.

Distribution of N2O in the atmosphere under global warming - a simulation study with the MPI Earth System Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kracher, Daniela; Manzini, Elisa; Reick, Christian H.; Schultz, Martin; Stein, Olaf

2014-05-01

Climate change is driven by an increasing release of anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs) such as carbon dioxide and nitrous oxide (N2O). Besides fossil fuel burning, also land use change and land management are anthropogenic sources of GHGs. Especially inputs of reactive nitrogen via fertilizer and deposition lead to enhanced emissions of N2O. One effect of a drastic future increase in surface temperature is a modification of atmospheric circulation, e.g. an accelerated Brewer Dobson circulation affecting the exchange between troposphere and stratosphere. N2O is inert in the troposphere and decayed only in the stratosphere. Thus, changes in atmospheric circulation, especially changes in the exchange between troposphere and stratosphere, will affect the atmospheric transport, decay, and distribution of N2O. In our study we assess the impact of global warming on atmospheric circulation and implied effects on the distribution and lifetime of atmospheric N2O. As terrestrial N2O emissions are highly determined by inputs of reactive nitrogen - the location of which being determined by human choice - we examine in particular the importance of latitudinal source regions of N2O for its global distribution. For this purpose we apply the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model, MPI-ESM. MPI-ESM consists of the atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM, the land surface model JSBACH, and MPIOM/HAMOCC representing ocean circulation and ocean biogeochemistry. Prognostic atmospheric N2O concentrations in MPI-ESM are determined by land N2O emissions, ocean N2O exchange and atmospheric tracer transport. As stratospheric chemistry is not explicitly represented in MPI-ESM, stratospheric decay rates of N2O are prescribed from a MACC MOZART simulation.

Assessing the effect of the relative atmospheric angular momentum (AAM) on length-of-day (LOD) variations under climate warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lehmann, E.; Hansen, F.; Ulbrich, U.; Nevir, P.; Leckebusch, G. C.

2009-04-01

While most studies on model-projected future climate warming discuss climatological quantities, this study investigates the response of the relative atmospheric angular momentum (AAM) to climate warming for the 21th century and discusses its possible effects on future length-of-day variations. Following the derivation of the dynamic relation between atmosphere and solid earth by Barnes et al. (Proc. Roy. Soc., 1985) this study relates the axial atmospheric excitation function X3 to changes in length-of-day that are proportional to variations in zonal winds. On interannual time scales changes in the relative AAM (ERA40 reanalyses) are well correlated with observed length-of-day (LOD, IERS EOP CO4) variability (r=0.75). The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a prominent coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon to cause global climate variability on interannual time scales. Correspondingly, changes in observed LOD relate to ENSO due to observed strong wind anomalies. This study investigates the varying effect of AAM anomalies on observed LOD by relating AAM to variations to ENSO teleconnections (sea surface temperatures, SSTs) and the Pacific North America (PNA) oscillation for the 20th and 21st century. The differently strong effect of strong El Niño events (explained variance 71%-98%) on present time (1962-2000) observed LOD-AAM relation can be associated to variations in location and strength of jet streams in the upper troposphere. Correspondingly, the relation between AAM and SSTs in the NIÑO 3.4 region also varies between explained variances of 15% to 73%. Recent coupled ocean-atmosphere projections on future climate warming suggest changes in frequency and amplitude of ENSO events. Since changes in the relative AAM indicate shifts in large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns due to climate change, AAM - ENSO relations are assessed in coupled atmosphere-ocean (ECHAM5-OM1) climate warming projections (A1B) for the 21st century. A strong rise (+31%) in relative AAM is observed with major contributions in the upper troposphere where increased jet streams cause large AAM anomalies. Due to increasing westerly winds, an eastward shift can be observed during strong El Niño events for the Pacific and North America centers of the PNA while its southeast center is less pronounced and shifts to the West. As a result, the PNA region during strong 21th century El Niño events is closely located to the PNA region of mean atmospheric conditions of present time. Further analyses on the climate warming scenario (A1B) determined a total of 28 strong El Niño events suggesting a steady increase in ENSO events, magnitude and duration during the last decades of the 21st century. Rising Niño 3.4 SSTs exceed global increases by 15%. Correspondingly to present times, the AAM-SST relation also indicates a range of explained variances from 8% to 82%. Ongoing analyses on 21st century climate warming relate zonal wind anomalies in the upper troposphere to SST patterns of individual strong El Niños to estimate a possible effect of the relative AAM on length-of-day variations.

Climate model biases and statistical downscaling for application in hydrologic model

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Climate change impact studies use global climate model (GCM) simulations to define future temperature and precipitation. The best available bias-corrected GCM output was obtained from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). CMIP5 data (temperature and precipitation) are available in d...

Results from the BRACE 1.5 study: Climate change impacts of 1.5 C and 2 C warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Neill, B. C.; Anderson, B.; Monaghan, A. J.; Ren, X.; Sanderson, B.; Tebaldi, C.

2017-12-01

In 2015, 195 countries negotiated the Paris Agreement on climate change, which set long-term goals of limiting global mean warming to well below 2 C and possibly 1.5 C. This event stimulated substantial scientific interest in climate outcomes and impacts on society associated with those levels of warming. Recently, the first set of global climate model simulations explicitly designed to meet those targets were undertaken with the Community Earth System Model (CESM) for use by the research community (Sanderson et al, accepted). The BRACE 1.5 project models societal impacts from these climate outcomes, combined with assumptions about future socioeconomic conditions according to the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. These analyses build on a recently completed study of the Benefits of Reduced Anthropogenic Climate changE (BRACE), published as a set of 20 papers in Climatic Change, which examined the difference in impacts between two higher scenarios resulting in about 2.5 C and 3.7 C warming by late this century. BRACE 1.5 consists of a set of six papers to be submitted to a special collection in Environmental Research Letters that takes a similar approach but focuses on impacts at 1.5 and 2 C warming. We ask whether impacts differ substantially between the two climate scenarios, accounting for uncertainty in climate outcomes through the use of initial condition ensembles of CESM simulations, and in societal conditions by using alternative SSP-based development pathways. Impact assessment focuses on the health and agricultural sectors; modeling approaches include the use of a global mutli-region CGE model for economic analysis, both a process-based and an empirical crop model, a model of spatial population change, a model of climatic suitability for the aedes aegypti mosquito, and an epidemiological model of heat-related mortality. A methodological analysis also evaluates the use of climate model emulation techniques for providing climate information sufficient to support impact assessment in low warming scenarios.

Amplification of warming due to intensification of zonal circulation in the mid-latitudes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alekseev, Genrikh; Ivanov, Nikolai; Kharlanenkova, Natalia; Kuzmina, Svetlana

2015-04-01

We propose a new index to evaluate the impact of atmospheric zonal transport oscillations on inter-annual variability and trends of average air temperature in mid-latitudes, Northern Hemisphere and globe. A simple model of mid-latitude channel "ocean-land-atmosphere" was used to produce the analytic relationship between the zonal circulation and the land-ocean temperature contrast which was used as a basis for index. An inverse relationship was found between indexes and average mid-latitude, hemisphere and global temperatures during the cold half of year and opposite one in summer. These relationships keep under 400 mb height. In winter relationship describes up to 70, 50 and 40 % of surface air temperature inter-annual variability of these averages, respectively. The contribution of zonal circulation to the increase in the average surface air temperature during warming period 1969-2008 reaches 75% in the mid-latitudes and 40% in the Northern Hemisphere. Proposed mid-latitude index correlates negatively with surface air temperature in the Arctic except summer. ECHAM4 projections with the A1B scenario show that increase of zonal circulation defines more than 74% of the warming in the Northern Hemisphere for 2001-2100. Our analysis confirms that the proposed index is an effective indicator of the climate change caused by variations of the zonal circulation that arise due to anthropogenic and/or natural global forcing mechanisms.

Downscaled and debiased climate simulations for North America from 21,000 years ago to 2100AD

PubMed Central

Lorenz, David J.; Nieto-Lugilde, Diego; Blois, Jessica L.; Fitzpatrick, Matthew C.; Williams, John W.

2016-01-01

Increasingly, ecological modellers are integrating paleodata with future projections to understand climate-driven biodiversity dynamics from the past through the current century. Climate simulations from earth system models are necessary to this effort, but must be debiased and downscaled before they can be used by ecological models. Downscaling methods and observational baselines vary among researchers, which produces confounding biases among downscaled climate simulations. We present unified datasets of debiased and downscaled climate simulations for North America from 21 ka BP to 2100AD, at 0.5° spatial resolution. Temporal resolution is decadal averages of monthly data until 1950AD, average climates for 1950–2005 AD, and monthly data from 2010 to 2100AD, with decadal averages also provided. This downscaling includes two transient paleoclimatic simulations and 12 climate models for the IPCC AR5 (CMIP5) historical (1850–2005), RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 21st-century scenarios. Climate variables include primary variables and derived bioclimatic variables. These datasets provide a common set of climate simulations suitable for seamlessly modelling the effects of past and future climate change on species distributions and diversity. PMID:27377537

Downscaled and debiased climate simulations for North America from 21,000 years ago to 2100AD.

PubMed

Lorenz, David J; Nieto-Lugilde, Diego; Blois, Jessica L; Fitzpatrick, Matthew C; Williams, John W

2016-07-05

Increasingly, ecological modellers are integrating paleodata with future projections to understand climate-driven biodiversity dynamics from the past through the current century. Climate simulations from earth system models are necessary to this effort, but must be debiased and downscaled before they can be used by ecological models. Downscaling methods and observational baselines vary among researchers, which produces confounding biases among downscaled climate simulations. We present unified datasets of debiased and downscaled climate simulations for North America from 21 ka BP to 2100AD, at 0.5° spatial resolution. Temporal resolution is decadal averages of monthly data until 1950AD, average climates for 1950-2005 AD, and monthly data from 2010 to 2100AD, with decadal averages also provided. This downscaling includes two transient paleoclimatic simulations and 12 climate models for the IPCC AR5 (CMIP5) historical (1850-2005), RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 21st-century scenarios. Climate variables include primary variables and derived bioclimatic variables. These datasets provide a common set of climate simulations suitable for seamlessly modelling the effects of past and future climate change on species distributions and diversity.

The CESM Large Ensemble Project: Inspiring New Ideas and Understanding

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kay, J. E.; Deser, C.

2016-12-01

While internal climate variability is known to affect climate projections, its influence is often underappreciated and confused with model error. Why? In general, modeling centers contribute a small number of realizations to international climate model assessments [e.g., phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5)]. As a result, model error and internal climate variability are difficult, and at times impossible, to disentangle. In response, the Community Earth System Model (CESM) community designed the CESM Large Ensemble (CESM-LE) with the explicit goal of enabling assessment of climate change in the presence of internal climate variability. All CESM-LE simulations use a single CMIP5 model (CESM with the Community Atmosphere Model, version 5). The core simulations replay the twenty to twenty-first century (1920-2100) 40+ times under historical and representative concentration pathway 8.5 external forcing with small initial condition differences. Two companion 2000+-yr-long preindustrial control simulations (fully coupled, prognostic atmosphere and land only) allow assessment of internal climate variability in the absence of climate change. Comprehensive outputs, including many daily fields, are available as single-variable time series on the Earth System Grid for anyone to use. Examples of scientists and stakeholders that are using the CESM-LE outputs to help interpret the observational record, to understand projection spread and to plan for a range of possible futures influenced by both internal climate variability and forced climate change will be highlighted the presentation.

Impacts of climate change on peanut yield in China simulated by CMIP5 multi-model ensemble projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Hanqing; Tian, Zhan; Zhong, Honglin; Fan, Dongli; Shi, Runhe; Niu, Yilong; He, Xiaogang; Chen, Maosi

2017-09-01

Peanut is one of the major edible vegetable oil crops in China, whose growth and yield are very sensitive to climate change. In addition, agriculture climate resources are expected to be redistributed under climate change, which will further influence the growth, development, cropping patterns, distribution and production of peanut. In this study, we used the DSSAT-Peanut model to examine the climate change impacts on peanut production, oil industry and oil food security in China. This model is first calibrated using site observations including 31 years' (1981-2011) climate, soil and agronomy data. This calibrated model is then employed to simulate the future peanut yield based on 20 climate scenarios from 5 Global Circulation Models (GCMs) developed by the InterSectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) driven by 4 Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Results indicate that the irrigated peanut yield will decrease 2.6% under the RCP 2.6 scenario, 9.9% under the RCP 4.5 scenario and 29% under the RCP 8.5 scenario, respectively. Similarly, the rain-fed peanut yield will also decrease, with a 2.5% reduction under the RCP 2.6 scenario, 11.5% reduction under the RCP 4.5 scenario and 30% reduction under the RCP 8.5 scenario, respectively.

Effects of mixing on resolved and unresolved scales on stratospheric age of air

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dietmüller, Simone; Garny, Hella; Plöger, Felix; Jöckel, Patrick; Cai, Duy

2017-06-01

Mean age of air (AoA) is a widely used metric to describe the transport along the Brewer-Dobson circulation. We seek to untangle the effects of different processes on the simulation of AoA, using the chemistry-climate model EMAC (ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry) and the Chemical Lagrangian Model of the Stratosphere (CLaMS). Here, the effects of residual transport and two-way mixing on AoA are calculated. To do so, we calculate the residual circulation transit time (RCTT). The difference of AoA and RCTT is defined as aging by mixing. However, as diffusion is also included in this difference, we further use a method to directly calculate aging by mixing on resolved scales. Comparing these two methods of calculating aging by mixing allows for separating the effect of unresolved aging by mixing (which we term aging by diffusion in the following) in EMAC and CLaMS. We find that diffusion impacts AoA by making air older, but its contribution plays a minor role (order of 10 %) in all simulations. However, due to the different advection schemes of the two models, aging by diffusion has a larger effect on AoA and mixing efficiency in EMAC, compared to CLaMS. Regarding the trends in AoA, in CLaMS the AoA trend is negative throughout the stratosphere except in the Northern Hemisphere middle stratosphere, consistent with observations. This slight positive trend is neither reproduced in a free-running nor in a nudged simulation with EMAC - in both simulations the AoA trend is negative throughout the stratosphere. Trends in AoA are mainly driven by the contributions of RCTT and aging by mixing, whereas the contribution of aging by diffusion plays a minor role.

High Resolution Global Climate Modeling with GEOS-5: Intense Precipitation, Convection and Tropical Cyclones on Seasonal Time-Scales.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Putnam, WilliamM.

2011-01-01

In 2008 the World Modeling Summit for Climate Prediction concluded that "climate modeling will need-and is ready-to move to fundamentally new high-resolution approaches to capitalize on the seamlessness of the weather-climate continuum." Following from this, experimentation with very high-resolution global climate modeling has gained enhanced priority within many modeling groups and agencies. The NASA Goddard Earth Observing System model (GEOS-5) has been enhanced to provide a capability for the execution at the finest horizontal resolutions POS,SIOle with a global climate model today. Using this high-resolution, non-hydrostatic version of GEOS-5, we have developed a unique capability to explore the intersection of weather and climate within a seamless prediction system. Week-long weather experiments, to mUltiyear climate simulations at global resolutions ranging from 3.5- to 14-km have demonstrated the predictability of extreme events including severe storms along frontal systems, extra-tropical storms, and tropical cyclones. The primary benefits of high resolution global models will likely be in the tropics, with better predictions of the genesis stages of tropical cyclones and of the internal structure of their mature stages. Using satellite data we assess the accuracy of GEOS-5 in representing extreme weather phenomena, and their interaction within the global climate on seasonal time-scales. The impacts of convective parameterization and the frequency of coupling between the moist physics and dynamics are explored in terms of precipitation intensity and the representation of deep convection. We will also describe the seasonal variability of global tropical cyclone activity within a global climate model capable of representing the most intense category 5 hurricanes.

Characteristics of the ocean simulations in the Max Planck Institute Ocean Model (MPIOM) the ocean component of the MPI-Earth system model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jungclaus, J. H.; Fischer, N.; Haak, H.; Lohmann, K.; Marotzke, J.; Matei, D.; Mikolajewicz, U.; Notz, D.; von Storch, J. S.

2013-06-01

MPI-ESM is a new version of the global Earth system model developed at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology. This paper describes the ocean state and circulation as well as basic aspects of variability in simulations contributing to the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The performance of the ocean/sea-ice model MPIOM, coupled to a new version of the atmosphere model ECHAM6 and modules for land surface and ocean biogeochemistry, is assessed for two model versions with different grid resolution in the ocean. The low-resolution configuration has a nominal resolution of 1.5°, whereas the higher resolution version features a quasiuniform, eddy-permitting global resolution of 0.4°. The paper focuses on important oceanic features, such as surface temperature and salinity, water mass distribution, large-scale circulation, and heat and freshwater transports. In general, these integral quantities are simulated well in comparison with observational estimates, and improvements in comparison with the predecessor system are documented; for example, for tropical variability and sea ice representation. Introducing an eddy-permitting grid configuration in the ocean leads to improvements, in particular, in the representation of interior water mass properties in the Atlantic and in the representation of important ocean currents, such as the Agulhas and Equatorial current systems. In general, however, there are more similarities than differences between the two grid configurations, and several shortcomings, known from earlier versions of the coupled model, prevail.

South Asian Summer Monsoon and Its Relationship with ENSO in the IPCC AR4 Simulations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Annamalai, H; Hamilton, K; Sperber, K R

In this paper we use the extensive integrations produced for the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) to examine the relationship between ENSO and the monsoon at interannual and decadal timescales. We begin with an analysis of the monsoon simulation in the 20th century integrations. Six of the 18 models were found to have a reasonably realistic representation of monsoon precipitation climatology. For each of these six models SST and anomalous precipitation evolution along the equatorial Pacific during El Nino events display considerable differences when compared to observations. Out of these six models only four (GFDL{_}CM{_}2.0, GFDL{_}CM{_}2.1, MRI, and MPI{_}ECHAM5) exhibitmore » a robust ENSO-monsoon contemporaneous teleconnection, including the known inverse relationship between ENSO and rainfall variations over India. Lagged correlations between the all-India rainfall (AIR) index and Nino3.4 SST reveal that three models represent the timing of the teleconnection, including the spring predictability barrier which is manifested as the transition from positive to negative correlations prior to the monsoon onset. Furthermore, only one of these three models (GFDL{_}CM{_}2.1) captures the observed phase lag with the strongest anticorrelation of SST peaking 2-3 months after the summer monsoon, which is partially attributable to the intensity of simulated El Nino itself. We find that the models that best capture the ENSO-monsoon teleconnection are those that correctly simulate the timing and location of SST and diabatic heating anomalies in the equatorial Pacific, and the associated changes to the equatorial Walker Circulation during El Nino events. The strength of the AIR-Nino3.4 SST correlation in the model runs waxes and wanes to some degree on decadal timescales. The overall magnitude and timescale for this decadal modulation in most of the models is similar to that seen in observations. However, there is little consistency in the phase among the realizations, suggesting a lack of predictability of the decadal modulation of the monsoon-ENSO relationship. The analysis was repeated for each of the four models using results from integrations in which the atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentration was raised to twice pre-industrial values. From these ''best'' models in the double CO{sub 2} simulations there are increases in both the mean monsoon rainfall over the Indian sub-continent (by 5-25%) and in its interannual variability (5-10%). We find for each model that the ENSO-monsoon correlation in the global warming runs is very similar to that in the 20th century runs, suggesting that the ENSO-monsoon connection will not weaken as global climate warms. This result, though plausible, needs to be taken with some caution because of the diversity in the simulation of ENSO variability in the coupled models we have analyzed. The implication of the present results for monsoon prediction are discussed.« less

On the Value of Climate Elasticity Indices to Assess the Impact of Climate Change on Streamflow Projection using an ensemble of bias corrected CMIP5 dataset

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Demirel, Mehmet; Moradkhani, Hamid

2015-04-01

Changes in two climate elasticity indices, i.e. temperature and precipitation elasticity of streamflow, were investigated using an ensemble of bias corrected CMIP5 dataset as forcing to two hydrologic models. The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) and the Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting (SAC-SMA) hydrologic models, were calibrated at 1/16 degree resolution and the simulated streamflow was routed to the basin outlet of interest. We estimated precipitation and temperature elasticity of streamflow from: (1) observed streamflow; (2) simulated streamflow by VIC and SAC-SMA models using observed climate for the current climate (1963-2003); (3) simulated streamflow using simulated climate from 10 GCM - CMIP5 dataset for the future climate (2010-2099) including two concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and two downscaled climate products (BCSD and MACA). The streamflow sensitivity to long-term (e.g., 30-year) average annual changes in temperature and precipitation is estimated for three periods i.e. 2010-40, 2040-70 and 2070-99. We compared the results of the three cases to reflect on the value of precipitation and temperature indices to assess the climate change impacts on Columbia River streamflow. Moreover, these three cases for two models are used to assess the effects of different uncertainty sources (model forcing, model structure and different pathways) on the two climate elasticity indices.

Analysis of water supply and demand in high mountain cities of Bolivia under growing population and changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kinouchi, T.; Mendoza, J.; Asaoka, Y.; Fuchs, P.

2017-12-01

Water resources in La Paz and El Alto, high mountain capital cities of Bolivia, strongly depend on the surface and subsurface runoff from partially glacierized catchments located in the Cordillera Real, Andes. Due to growing population and changing climate, the balance between water supply from the source catchments and demand for drinking, agriculture, industry and hydropower has become precarious in recent years as evidenced by a serious drought during the 2015-2016 El Nino event. To predict the long-term availability of water resources under changing climate, we developed a semi-distributed glacio-hydrological model that considers various runoff pathways from partially glacierized high-altitude catchments. Two GCM projections (MRI-AGCM and INGV-ECHAM4) were used for the prediction with bias corrected by reanalysis data (ERA-INTERIM) and downscaled to target areas using data monitored at several weather stations. The model was applied to three catchments from which current water resources are supplied and eight additional catchments that will be potentially effective in compensating reduced runoff from the current water resource areas. For predicting the future water demand, a cohort-component method was used for the projection of size and composition of population change, considering natural and social change (birth, death and transfer). As a result, total population is expected to increase from 1.6 million in 2012 to 2.0 million in 2036. The water demand was predicted for given unit water consumption, non-revenue water rate (NWR), and sectorial percentage of water consumption for domestic, industrial and commercial purposes. The results of hydrological simulations and the analysis of water demand indicated that water supply and demand are barely balanced in recent years, while the total runoff from current water resource areas will continue to decrease and unprecedented water shortage is likely to occur since around 2020 toward the middle of 21st century even if NWR is improved. We showed that the runoff from a partially-glacierized catchment located in the vicinity of the current water resource catchments can greatly compensate the projected shortage in water supply. Therefore, consensus building on diverting water from the new catchment will be critical for sustainable development of the region.

Future state of the climate change, mitigation and development of sustainable agriculture in Bulgaria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kazandjiev, V.; Georgieva, V.; Moteva, M.; Marinova, T.; Dimitrov, P.

2010-09-01

The farming is one of the most important branches that bring the increase to the gross internal production in Bulgaria. At the same time, the agriculture is the only branch, as in home, so in world scale in which the made as well direct production spending and investing regenerating (or not) only in the frameworks to one vegetative season. In addition on this, development of the intensive farming without using the most advanced technologies such as irrigation, automation, selection - for obtaining stable cultivars and hybrids, permanent weather monitoring and agroclimatic zoning and integrated and biochemical protection to the cultures and plantations had not possible. Analysis of long-term meteorological data from different regions shows clear tendencies to warming and drying for the period of contemporary climate (1971-2000) as well in Bulgaria. Hydro-meteorological conditions in the country are worsened. The most entire estimate is made from the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) 2007. Most of authors proven that the last decades are really warmest for last century, even for the entire period of the most instrumental observations. The causes for global warming was long time debatable, but the last investigations prove it anthropogenetic derive. The main goal of the paper is framing in conditions of the expected climate changes in our country for period 2020-2050-2070 and the most likely impacts on the agriculture with inspection padding to the consequences in them and making physical conditions for development of proof farming in production regions of the country. By the means of the systematized database of meteorological and agrometeorological data which we have at disposition for the period of this survey (1971-2000); Provide assignment of the expected climatic changes according to the scenarios in the centers for observing and investigations of climatic changes in Europe, US., Canada and Australia (ECHAM 4, HadCM 2, CGCM 1, CSIRO-MK2 Bs and GFDL-Rs15) for the periods until 2020-2050-2070. Recover the growth, development and the productivity of the agricultural crops by means of the simulation models as WOFOST, DSSAT and calculation the reference evapotranspiration by CROPWAT model for the production conditions of the country and in correspondence with expected climatic changes; Actualization of existing agroclimatic zoning in Bulgaria for growing main for agriculture field crops, fruits, vegetables, vineyards and forage herbs. Was determinate regions for irrigation and appropriate crops and low-favored for agriculture regions with connection of expected changes 2020-2050-2070. It was investigated relations between the biological (stages of phenological development and yields) and agroclimatic (temperatures, precipitations, soil moisture content, balance of NPK in soils etc.); Find of resources indices and hydrothermal indices for agroclimatic conditions and their applicability. Start process of structuring of agricultural production in dependence from the real and potential resources of the six regions of the country further to the expected climatic changes in 2020-2050-2070. Finally was prepared recommendations for agroclimatic zoning in the practices on the state administration and MAF, investing policy for concentration of National and European funds for farming and insurance companies at determining the their insurance policy.

Mid-21st century projections of hydroclimate in Western Himalayas and Satluj River basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tiwari, Sarita; Kar, Sarat C.; Bhatla, R.

2018-02-01

The Himalayan climate system is sensitive to global warming and climate change. Regional hydrology and the downstream water flow in the rivers of Himalayan origin may change due to variations in snow and glacier melt in the region. This study examines the mid-21st century climate projections over western Himalayas from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate models under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). All the global climate models used in the present analysis indicate that the study region would be warmer by mid-century. The temperature trends from all the models studied here are statistically significant at 95% confidence interval. Multi-model ensemble spreads show that there are large differences among the models in their projections of future climate with spread in temperature ranging from about 1.5 °C to 5 °C over various areas of western Himalayas in all the seasons. Spread in precipitation projections lies between 0.3 and 1 mm/day in all the seasons. Major shift in the timing of evaporation maxima and minima is noticed. The GFDL_ESM2G model products have been downscaled to Satluj River basin using the weather research and forecast (WRF) model and impact of climate change on streamflow has been studied. The reduction of precipitation during JJAS is expected to be > 3-6 mm/day in RCP8.5 as compared to present climate. It is expected that precipitation amount shall increase over Satluj basin in future (mid-21st century) The soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model has been used to simulate the Satluj streamflow for the present and future climate using GFDL_ESM2G precipitation and temperature data as well as the WRF model downscaled data. The computations using the global model data show that total annual discharge from Satluj will be less in future than that in present climate, especially in peak discharge season (JJAS). The SWAT model with downscaled output indicates that during winter and spring, more discharge shall occur in future (RCP8.5) in Satluj River.

Assessment of CMIP5 historical simulations of rainfall over Southeast Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raghavan, Srivatsan V.; Liu, Jiandong; Nguyen, Ngoc Son; Vu, Minh Tue; Liong, Shie-Yui

2018-05-01

We present preliminary analyses of the historical (1986-2005) climate simulations of a ten-member subset of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate models over Southeast Asia. The objective of this study was to evaluate the general circulation models' performance in simulating the mean state of climate over this less-studied climate vulnerable region, with a focus on precipitation. Results indicate that most of the models are unable to reproduce the observed state of climate over Southeast Asia. Though the multi-model ensemble mean is a better representation of the observations, the uncertainties in the individual models are far high. There is no particular model that performed well in simulating the historical climate of Southeast Asia. There seems to be no significant influence of the spatial resolutions of the models on the quality of simulation, despite the view that higher resolution models fare better. The study results emphasize on careful consideration of models for impact studies and the need to improve the next generation of models in their ability to simulate regional climates better.

"Intelligent Ensemble" Projections of Precipitation and Surface Radiation in Support of Agricultural Climate Change Adaptation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Taylor, Patrick C.; Baker, Noel C.

2015-01-01

Earth's climate is changing and will continue to change into the foreseeable future. Expected changes in the climatological distribution of precipitation, surface temperature, and surface solar radiation will significantly impact agriculture. Adaptation strategies are, therefore, required to reduce the agricultural impacts of climate change. Climate change projections of precipitation, surface temperature, and surface solar radiation distributions are necessary input for adaption planning studies. These projections are conventionally constructed from an ensemble of climate model simulations (e.g., the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5)) as an equal weighted average, one model one vote. Each climate model, however, represents the array of climate-relevant physical processes with varying degrees of fidelity influencing the projection of individual climate variables differently. Presented here is a new approach, termed the "Intelligent Ensemble, that constructs climate variable projections by weighting each model according to its ability to represent key physical processes, e.g., precipitation probability distribution. This approach provides added value over the equal weighted average method. Physical process metrics applied in the "Intelligent Ensemble" method are created using a combination of NASA and NOAA satellite and surface-based cloud, radiation, temperature, and precipitation data sets. The "Intelligent Ensemble" method is applied to the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 anthropogenic climate forcing simulations within the CMIP5 archive to develop a set of climate change scenarios for precipitation, temperature, and surface solar radiation in each USDA Farm Resource Region for use in climate change adaptation studies.

An interactive web application for visualizing climate data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Alder, J.; Hostetler, S.; Williams, D.

2013-01-01

Massive volumes of data are being created as modeling centers from around the world finalize their submission of climate simulations for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 5 (CMIP5), in preparation for the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Scientists, resource managers, and other potential users of climate data are faced with the daunting task of analyzing, distilling, and summarizing this unprecedented wealth of climate information.

An Interactive Web Application for Visualizing Climate Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alder, J.; Hostetler, S.; Williams, D.

2013-05-01

Massive volumes of data are being created as modeling centers from around the world finalize their submission of climate simulations for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 5 (CMIP5), in preparation for the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Scientists, resource managers, and other potential users of climate data are faced with the daunting task of analyzing, distilling, and summarizing this unprecedented wealth of climate information.

Influences of Regional Climate Change on Air Quality Across the Continental U.S. Projected from Downscaling IPCC AR5 Simulations. Chapter 2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nolte, Christopher; Otte, Tanya; Pinder, Robert; Bowden, J.; Herwehe, J.; Faluvegi, Gregory; Shindell, Drew

2013-01-01

Projecting climate change scenarios to local scales is important for understanding, mitigating, and adapting to the effects of climate change on society and the environment. Many of the global climate models (GCMs) that are participating in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) do not fully resolve regional-scale processes and therefore cannot capture regional-scale changes in temperatures and precipitation. We use a regional climate model (RCM) to dynamically downscale the GCM's large-scale signal to investigate the changes in regional and local extremes of temperature and precipitation that may result from a changing climate. In this paper, we show preliminary results from downscaling the NASA/GISS ModelE IPCC AR5 Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 6.0 scenario. We use the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model as the RCM to downscale decadal time slices (1995-2005 and 2025-2035) and illustrate potential changes in regional climate for the continental U.S. that are projected by ModelE and WRF under RCP6.0. The regional climate change scenario is further processed using the Community Multiscale Air Quality modeling system to explore influences of regional climate change on air quality.

Climate change projections using the IPSL-CM5 Earth System Model: from CMIP3 to CMIP5

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dufresne, J.-L.; Foujols, M.-A.; Denvil, S.; Caubel, A.; Marti, O.; Aumont, O.; Balkanski, Y.; Bekki, S.; Bellenger, H.; Benshila, R.; Bony, S.; Bopp, L.; Braconnot, P.; Brockmann, P.; Cadule, P.; Cheruy, F.; Codron, F.; Cozic, A.; Cugnet, D.; de Noblet, N.; Duvel, J.-P.; Ethé, C.; Fairhead, L.; Fichefet, T.; Flavoni, S.; Friedlingstein, P.; Grandpeix, J.-Y.; Guez, L.; Guilyardi, E.; Hauglustaine, D.; Hourdin, F.; Idelkadi, A.; Ghattas, J.; Joussaume, S.; Kageyama, M.; Krinner, G.; Labetoulle, S.; Lahellec, A.; Lefebvre, M.-P.; Lefevre, F.; Levy, C.; Li, Z. X.; Lloyd, J.; Lott, F.; Madec, G.; Mancip, M.; Marchand, M.; Masson, S.; Meurdesoif, Y.; Mignot, J.; Musat, I.; Parouty, S.; Polcher, J.; Rio, C.; Schulz, M.; Swingedouw, D.; Szopa, S.; Talandier, C.; Terray, P.; Viovy, N.; Vuichard, N.

2013-05-01

We present the global general circulation model IPSL-CM5 developed to study the long-term response of the climate system to natural and anthropogenic forcings as part of the 5th Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). This model includes an interactive carbon cycle, a representation of tropospheric and stratospheric chemistry, and a comprehensive representation of aerosols. As it represents the principal dynamical, physical, and bio-geochemical processes relevant to the climate system, it may be referred to as an Earth System Model. However, the IPSL-CM5 model may be used in a multitude of configurations associated with different boundary conditions and with a range of complexities in terms of processes and interactions. This paper presents an overview of the different model components and explains how they were coupled and used to simulate historical climate changes over the past 150 years and different scenarios of future climate change. A single version of the IPSL-CM5 model (IPSL-CM5A-LR) was used to provide climate projections associated with different socio-economic scenarios, including the different Representative Concentration Pathways considered by CMIP5 and several scenarios from the Special Report on Emission Scenarios considered by CMIP3. Results suggest that the magnitude of global warming projections primarily depends on the socio-economic scenario considered, that there is potential for an aggressive mitigation policy to limit global warming to about two degrees, and that the behavior of some components of the climate system such as the Arctic sea ice and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation may change drastically by the end of the twenty-first century in the case of a no climate policy scenario. Although the magnitude of regional temperature and precipitation changes depends fairly linearly on the magnitude of the projected global warming (and thus on the scenario considered), the geographical pattern of these changes is strikingly similar for the different scenarios. The representation of atmospheric physical processes in the model is shown to strongly influence the simulated climate variability and both the magnitude and pattern of the projected climate changes.

Analysis of heat wave occurrences in the Carpathian basin using regional climate model simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bartha, E. B.; Pongracz, R.; Bartholy, J.

2012-04-01

Human health is very likely affected by regional consequences of global warming. One of the most severe impacts is probably associated to temperature-related climatological extremes, such as heat waves. In the coming decades hot conditions in most regions of the world are very likely to occur more frequently and more intensely than in the recent decades. In order to develop adaptation and mitigation strategies on local scale, it is essential to analyze the projected changes related to warming climatic conditions including heat waves. In 2004, a Heat Health Watch Warning System was developed in Hungary on the basis of a retrospective analysis of mortality and meteorological data to anticipate heat waves that may result in a large excess of mortality. In the frame of this recently introduced Health Watch System, three levels of heat wave warning are applied. They are associated to the daily mean temperature values, and defined as follows: - Warning level 1 (advisory for internal use) is issued when the daily mean temperature exceeds 25 °C. - Warning level 2 (heat wave watch) is issued when the daily mean temperature for at least 3 consecutive days exceeds 25 °C. - Warning level 3 (heat wave alert) is issued when the daily mean temperature for at least 3 consecutive days exceeds 27 °C. In the present study, frequency of the above climatic conditions are analyzed using regional climate model (RCM) experiments are analyzed for the recent past and the coming decades (1961-2100) for the Carpathian basin. At the Dept. of Meteorology, Eotvos Lorand University two different RCMs have been adapted: RegCM (with 10 km horizontal resolution, originally developed by Giorgi et al., currently, available from the International Centre for Theoretical Physics, ICTP) and PRECIS (with 25 km horizontal resolution, developed at the UK Met Office, Hadley Centre). Their initial and lateral boundary conditions have been provided by global climate models ECHAM and HadCM3, respectively. For both RCMs A1B emission scenario was used. The climatic conditions of 1961-1990 (as a reference), and 2021-2050, 2071-2100 future periods are evaluated using bias corrected daily mean temperature outputs of both RegCM and PRECIS. Based on the results the following main conclusions can be drawn: (i) Heat waves are very likely to occur more frequently in the 21st century than in the reference period, 1961-1990. (ii) By the end of the 21st century heat warning level 3 is projected to occur with similar frequency as the heat warning level 1 in the reference period. (iii) By the end of the 21st century the average first occurrence of the heat warning days is simulated to shift earlier, and the average last occurrence later, than in the reference period - thus the length of the heat wave season is projected to become remarkably larger. (iv) For each time slices (both reference and future periods), PRECIS simulations suggest a more often occurrence of heat warning cases in the Carpathian basin than the RegCM experiments.

Comparison of Global Cloud Fraction and TOA Radiation Budgets between the NASA GISS AR5 GCM Simulations and CERES-MODIS Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stanfield, R. E.; Dong, X.; Xi, B.; Del Genio, A. D.; Minnis, P.; Doelling, D.; Loeb, N. G.

2011-12-01

To better advise policymakers, it is necessary for climate models to provide credible predictions of future climates. Meeting this goal requires climate models to successfully simulate the present and past climates. The past, current and future Earth climate has been simulated by the NASA GISS ModelE climate model and has been summarized by the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, AR4, 2007). New simulations from the updated AR5 version of the NASA GISS ModelE GCM have been released to the public community and will be included in the IPCC AR5 ensemble of simulations. Due to the recent nature of these simulations, however, they have yet to be extensively validated against observations. To evaluate the GISS AR5 simulated global clouds and TOA radiation budgets, we have collected and processed the NASA CERES and MODIS observations during the period 2000-2005. In detail, the 1ox1o resolution monthly averaged SYN1 product has been used with combined observations from both Terra and Aqua satellites, and degraded to a 2ox2.5o grid box to match the GCM spatial resolution. These observations are temporally interpolated and fit to data from geostationary satellites to provide time continuity. The GISS AR5 products were downloaded from the CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) for the IPCC-AR5. Preliminary comparisons between GISS AR5 simulations and CERES-MODIS observations have shown that although their annual and seasonal mean CFs agree within a few percent, there are significant differences in several climatic regions. For example, the modeled CFs have positive biases in the Arctic, Antarctic, Tropics, and Sahara Desert, but negative biases over the southern middle latitudes (30-65 oS). The OLR, albedo and NET radiation comparisons are similar to the CF comparison.

Devon Ice cap's future: results from climate and ice dynamics modelling via surface mass balance modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodehacke, C. B.; Mottram, R.; Boberg, F.

2017-12-01

The Devon Ice Cap is an example of a relatively well monitored small ice cap in the Canadian Arctic. Close to Greenland, it shows a similar surface mass balance signal to glaciers in western Greenland. Here we various boundary conditions, ranging from ERA-Interim reanalysis data via global climate model high resolution (5km) output from the regional climate model HIRHAM5, to determine the surface mass balance of the Devon ice cap. These SMB estimates are used to drive the PISM glacier model in order to model the present day and future prospects of this small Arctic ice cap. Observational data from the Devon Ice Cap in Arctic Canada is used to evaluate the surface mass balance (SMB) data output from the HIRHAM5 model for simulations forced with the ERA-Interim climate reanalysis data and the historical emissions scenario run by the EC-Earth global climate model. The RCP8.5 scenario simulated by EC-Earth is also downscaled by HIRHAM5 and this output is used to force the PISM model to simulate the likely future evolution of the Devon Ice Cap under a warming climate. We find that the Devon Ice Cap is likely to continue its present day retreat, though in the future increased precipitation partly offsets the enhanced melt rates caused by climate change.

The Dynamic General Vegetation Model MC1 over the United States and Canada at a 5-arcminute resolution: model inputs and outputs

Treesearch

Ray Drapek; John B. Kim; Ronald P. Neilson

2015-01-01

Land managers need to include climate change in their decisionmaking, but the climate models that project future climates operate at spatial scales that are too coarse to be of direct use. To create a dataset more useful to managers, soil and historical climate were assembled for the United States and Canada at a 5-arcminute grid resolution. Nine CMIP3 future climate...

Study of Regional Downscaled Climate and Air Quality in the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Y.; Fu, J. S.; Drake, J.; Lamarque, J.; Lam, Y.; Huang, K.

2011-12-01

Due to the increasing anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, the global and regional climate patterns have significantly changed. Climate change has exerted strong impact on ecosystem, air quality and human life. The global model Community Earth System Model (CESM v1.0) was used to predict future climate and chemistry under projected emission scenarios. Two new emission scenarios, Representative Community Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5, were used in this study for climate and chemistry simulations. The projected global mean temperature will increase 1.2 and 1.7 degree Celcius for the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios in 2050s, respectively. In order to take advantage of local detailed topography, land use data and conduct local climate impact on air quality, we downscaled CESM outputs to 4 km by 4 km Eastern US domain using Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model and Community Multi-scale Air Quality modeling system (CMAQ). The evaluations between regional model outputs and global model outputs, regional model outputs and observational data were conducted to verify the downscaled methodology. Future climate change and air quality impact were also examined on a 4 km by 4 km high resolution scale.

Community climate simulations to assess avoided impacts in 1.5 and 2 °C futures

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sanderson, Benjamin M.; Xu, Yangyang; Tebaldi, Claudia

The Paris Agreement of December 2015 stated a goal to pursue efforts to keep global temperatures below 1.5 °C above preindustrial levels and well below 2 °C. The IPCC was charged with assessing climate impacts at these temperature levels, but fully coupled equilibrium climate simulations do not currently exist to inform such assessments. Here, we produce a set of scenarios using a simple model designed to achieve long-term 1.5 and 2 °C temperatures in a stable climate. These scenarios are then used to produce century-scale ensemble simulations using the Community Earth System Model, providing impact-relevant long-term climate data for stabilization pathways at 1.5 andmore » 2 °C levels and an overshoot 1.5 °C case, which are realized (for the 21st century) in the coupled model and are freely available to the community. We also describe the design of the simulations and a brief overview of their impact-relevant climate response. Exceedance of historical record temperature occurs with 60 % greater frequency in the 2 °C climate than in a 1.5 °C climate aggregated globally, and with twice the frequency in equatorial and arid regions. Extreme precipitation intensity is statistically significantly higher in a 2.0 °C climate than a 1.5 °C climate in some specific regions (but not all). The model exhibits large differences in the Arctic, which is ice-free with a frequency of 1 in 3 years in the 2.0 °C scenario, and 1 in 40 years in the 1.5 °C scenario. Significance of impact differences with respect to multi-model variability is not assessed.« less

Community climate simulations to assess avoided impacts in 1.5 and 2 °C futures

DOE PAGES

Sanderson, Benjamin M.; Xu, Yangyang; Tebaldi, Claudia; ...

2017-09-19

The Paris Agreement of December 2015 stated a goal to pursue efforts to keep global temperatures below 1.5 °C above preindustrial levels and well below 2 °C. The IPCC was charged with assessing climate impacts at these temperature levels, but fully coupled equilibrium climate simulations do not currently exist to inform such assessments. Here, we produce a set of scenarios using a simple model designed to achieve long-term 1.5 and 2 °C temperatures in a stable climate. These scenarios are then used to produce century-scale ensemble simulations using the Community Earth System Model, providing impact-relevant long-term climate data for stabilization pathways at 1.5 andmore » 2 °C levels and an overshoot 1.5 °C case, which are realized (for the 21st century) in the coupled model and are freely available to the community. We also describe the design of the simulations and a brief overview of their impact-relevant climate response. Exceedance of historical record temperature occurs with 60 % greater frequency in the 2 °C climate than in a 1.5 °C climate aggregated globally, and with twice the frequency in equatorial and arid regions. Extreme precipitation intensity is statistically significantly higher in a 2.0 °C climate than a 1.5 °C climate in some specific regions (but not all). The model exhibits large differences in the Arctic, which is ice-free with a frequency of 1 in 3 years in the 2.0 °C scenario, and 1 in 40 years in the 1.5 °C scenario. Significance of impact differences with respect to multi-model variability is not assessed.« less

The linkage between marine sediment records and changes in Holocene Saharan landscape: simulating the dust cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Egerer, Sabine; Claussen, Martin; Reick, Christian; Stanelle, Tanja

2016-04-01

Marine sediment records reveal an abrupt and strong increase in dust deposition in the North Atlantic at the end of the African Humid Period about 4.9 ka to 5.5 ka ago (deMenocal et al., 2000; McGee et al., 2013). The change in dust flux has been attributed to varying Saharan land surface cover. Alternatively, the enhanced dust accumulation is linked to enhanced surface winds and a consequent intensification of coastal upwelling. We present simulation results from a recent sensitivity study, where we demonstrate for the first time the direct link between dust accumulation in marine cores and changes in Saharan land surface during the Holocene. We have simulated timeslices of he mid-Holocene (6 ka BP) and pre-industrial (1850 AD) dust cycle as a function of Saharan land surface cover and atmosphere-ocean conditions using the coupled atmosphere-aerosol model ECHAM6.1-HAM2.1. We prescribe mid-Holocene vegetation cover based on a vegetation reconstruction from pollen data (Hoelzmann et al., 1998) and mid-Holocene lake surface area is determined using a water routing and storage model (Tegen et al., 2002). In agreement with data from marine sediment cores, our simulations show that mid-Holocene dust deposition fluxes in the North Atlantic were two to three times lower compared with pre-industrial fluxes. We identify Saharan land surface characteristics to be the main control on dust transport from North Africa to the North Atlantic. We conclude that the variation in dust accumulation in marine cores is likely related to a transition of the Saharan landscape during the Holocene and not due to changes in atmospheric or ocean conditions alone. Reference: deMenocal, P., Ortiz, J., Guilderson, T., Adkins, J., Sarnthein, M., Baker, L., and Yarusinsky, M.: Abrupt onset and termination of the African Humid Period:: rapid climate responses to gradual insolation forcing, Quaternary Science Reviews, 19, 347-361, 2000. Hoelzmann, P., Jolly, D., Harrison, S. P., Laarif, F., Bonnefille, R., and Pachur, H.-J.: Mid-Holocene land-surface conditions in northern Africa and the Arabian Peninsula: A data set for the analysis of biogeophysical feedbacks in the climate system, Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 12, 35-51, doi:10.1029/97GB02733, 1998. McGee, D., deMenocal, P., Winckler, G., Stuut, J., and Bradtmiller, L.: The magnitude, timing and abruptness of changes in North African dust deposition over the last 20,000 yr, Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 371-372, 163-176, doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2013.03.054, 2013. Tegen, I., Harrison, S. P., Kohfeld, K., Prentice, I. C., Coe, M., and Heimann, M.: Impact of vegetation and preferential source areas on global dust aerosol: Results from a model study, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 107, AAC 14-1-AAC 14-27, doi:10.1029/2001JD000963, 2002.

Impacts of weighting climate models for hydro-meteorological climate change studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Jie; Brissette, François P.; Lucas-Picher, Philippe; Caya, Daniel

2017-06-01

Weighting climate models is controversial in climate change impact studies using an ensemble of climate simulations from different climate models. In climate science, there is a general consensus that all climate models should be considered as having equal performance or in other words that all projections are equiprobable. On the other hand, in the impacts and adaptation community, many believe that climate models should be weighted based on their ability to better represent various metrics over a reference period. The debate appears to be partly philosophical in nature as few studies have investigated the impact of using weights in projecting future climate changes. The present study focuses on the impact of assigning weights to climate models for hydrological climate change studies. Five methods are used to determine weights on an ensemble of 28 global climate models (GCMs) adapted from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) database. Using a hydrological model, streamflows are computed over a reference (1961-1990) and future (2061-2090) periods, with and without post-processing climate model outputs. The impacts of using different weighting schemes for GCM simulations are then analyzed in terms of ensemble mean and uncertainty. The results show that weighting GCMs has a limited impact on both projected future climate in term of precipitation and temperature changes and hydrology in terms of nine different streamflow criteria. These results apply to both raw and post-processed GCM model outputs, thus supporting the view that climate models should be considered equiprobable.

Natural climate variability and teleconnections to precipitation over the Pacific-North American region in CMIP3 and CMIP5 models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Polade, Suraj D.; Gershunov, Alexander; Cayan, Daniel R.; Dettinger, Michael D.; Pierce, David W.

2013-05-01

climate variability will continue to be an important aspect of future regional climate even in the midst of long-term secular changes. Consequently, the ability of climate models to simulate major natural modes of variability and their teleconnections provides important context for the interpretation and use of climate change projections. Comparisons reported here indicate that the CMIP5 generation of global climate models shows significant improvements in simulations of key Pacific climate mode and their teleconnections to North America compared to earlier CMIP3 simulations. The performance of 14 models with simulations in both the CMIP3 and CMIP5 archives are assessed using singular value decomposition analysis of simulated and observed winter Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and concurrent precipitation over the contiguous United States and northwestern Mexico. Most of the models reproduce basic features of the key natural mode and their teleconnections, albeit with notable regional deviations from observations in both SST and precipitation. Increasing horizontal resolution in the CMIP5 simulations is an important, but not a necessary, factor in the improvement from CMIP3 to CMIP5.

Natural climate variability and teleconnections to precipitation over the Pacific-North American region in CMIP3 and CMIP5 models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Polade, Suraj D.; Gershunov, Alexander; Cayan, Daniel R.; Dettinger, Michael D.; Pierce, David W.

2013-01-01

Natural climate variability will continue to be an important aspect of future regional climate even in the midst of long-term secular changes. Consequently, the ability of climate models to simulate major natural modes of variability and their teleconnections provides important context for the interpretation and use of climate change projections. Comparisons reported here indicate that the CMIP5 generation of global climate models shows significant improvements in simulations of key Pacific climate mode and their teleconnections to North America compared to earlier CMIP3 simulations. The performance of 14 models with simulations in both the CMIP3 and CMIP5 archives are assessed using singular value decomposition analysis of simulated and observed winter Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and concurrent precipitation over the contiguous United States and northwestern Mexico. Most of the models reproduce basic features of the key natural mode and their teleconnections, albeit with notable regional deviations from observations in both SST and precipitation. Increasing horizontal resolution in the CMIP5 simulations is an important, but not a necessary, factor in the improvement from CMIP3 to CMIP5.

Weighting climate model projections using observational constraints.

PubMed

Gillett, Nathan P

2015-11-13

Projected climate change integrates the net response to multiple climate feedbacks. Whereas existing long-term climate change projections are typically based on unweighted individual climate model simulations, as observed climate change intensifies it is increasingly becoming possible to constrain the net response to feedbacks and hence projected warming directly from observed climate change. One approach scales simulated future warming based on a fit to observations over the historical period, but this approach is only accurate for near-term projections and for scenarios of continuously increasing radiative forcing. For this reason, the recent Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR5) included such observationally constrained projections in its assessment of warming to 2035, but used raw model projections of longer term warming to 2100. Here a simple approach to weighting model projections based on an observational constraint is proposed which does not assume a linear relationship between past and future changes. This approach is used to weight model projections of warming in 2081-2100 relative to 1986-2005 under the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 forcing scenario, based on an observationally constrained estimate of the Transient Climate Response derived from a detection and attribution analysis. The resulting observationally constrained 5-95% warming range of 0.8-2.5 K is somewhat lower than the unweighted range of 1.1-2.6 K reported in the IPCC AR5. © 2015 The Authors.

Regional Climate Change across the Continental U.S. Projected from Downscaling IPCC AR5 Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Otte, T. L.; Nolte, C. G.; Otte, M. J.; Pinder, R. W.; Faluvegi, G.; Shindell, D. T.

2011-12-01

Projecting climate change scenarios to local scales is important for understanding and mitigating the effects of climate change on society and the environment. Many of the general circulation models (GCMs) that are participating in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) do not fully resolve regional-scale processes and therefore cannot capture local changes in temperature and precipitation extremes. We seek to project the GCM's large-scale climate change signal to the local scale using a regional climate model (RCM) by applying dynamical downscaling techniques. The RCM will be used to better understand the local changes of temperature and precipitation extremes that may result from a changing climate. Preliminary results from downscaling NASA/GISS ModelE simulations of the IPCC AR5 Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenario 6.0 will be shown. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model will be used as the RCM to downscale decadal time slices for ca. 2000 and ca. 2030 and illustrate potential changes in regional climate for the continental U.S. that are projected by ModelE and WRF under RCP6.0.

An integrated assessment modeling framework for uncertainty studies in global and regional climate change: the MIT IGSM-CAM (version 1.0)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Monier, E.; Scott, J. R.; Sokolov, A. P.; Forest, C. E.; Schlosser, C. A.

2013-12-01

This paper describes a computationally efficient framework for uncertainty studies in global and regional climate change. In this framework, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Integrated Global System Model (IGSM), an integrated assessment model that couples an Earth system model of intermediate complexity to a human activity model, is linked to the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Atmosphere Model (CAM). Since the MIT IGSM-CAM framework (version 1.0) incorporates a human activity model, it is possible to analyze uncertainties in emissions resulting from both uncertainties in the underlying socio-economic characteristics of the economic model and in the choice of climate-related policies. Another major feature is the flexibility to vary key climate parameters controlling the climate system response to changes in greenhouse gases and aerosols concentrations, e.g., climate sensitivity, ocean heat uptake rate, and strength of the aerosol forcing. The IGSM-CAM is not only able to realistically simulate the present-day mean climate and the observed trends at the global and continental scale, but it also simulates ENSO variability with realistic time scales, seasonality and patterns of SST anomalies, albeit with stronger magnitudes than observed. The IGSM-CAM shares the same general strengths and limitations as the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) models in simulating present-day annual mean surface temperature and precipitation. Over land, the IGSM-CAM shows similar biases to the NCAR Community Climate System Model (CCSM) version 3, which shares the same atmospheric model. This study also presents 21st century simulations based on two emissions scenarios (unconstrained scenario and stabilization scenario at 660 ppm CO2-equivalent) similar to, respectively, the Representative Concentration Pathways RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 scenarios, and three sets of climate parameters. Results of the simulations with the chosen climate parameters provide a good approximation for the median, and the 5th and 95th percentiles of the probability distribution of 21st century changes in global mean surface air temperature from previous work with the IGSM. Because the IGSM-CAM framework only considers one particular climate model, it cannot be used to assess the structural modeling uncertainty arising from differences in the parameterization suites of climate models. However, comparison of the IGSM-CAM projections with simulations of 31 CMIP5 models under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios show that the range of warming at the continental scale shows very good agreement between the two ensemble simulations, except over Antarctica, where the IGSM-CAM overestimates the warming. This demonstrates that by sampling the climate system response, the IGSM-CAM, even though it relies on one single climate model, can essentially reproduce the range of future continental warming simulated by more than 30 different models. Precipitation changes projected in the IGSM-CAM simulations and the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble both display a large uncertainty at the continental scale. The two ensemble simulations show good agreement over Asia and Europe. However, the ranges of precipitation changes do not overlap - but display similar size - over Africa and South America, two continents where models generally show little agreement in the sign of precipitation changes and where CCSM3 tends to be an outlier. Overall, the IGSM-CAM provides an efficient and consistent framework to explore the large uncertainty in future projections of global and regional climate change associated with uncertainty in the climate response and projected emissions.

Past and future changes in Canadian boreal wildfire activity.

PubMed

Girardin, Martin P; Mudelsee, Manfred

2008-03-01

Climate change in Canadian boreal forests is usually associated with increased drought severity and fire activity. However, future fire activity could well be within the range of values experienced during the preindustrial period. In this study, we contrast 21st century forecasts of fire occurrence (FireOcc, number of large forest fires per year) in the southern part of the Boreal Shield, Canada, with the historical range of the past 240 years statistically reconstructed from tree-ring width data. First, a historical relationship between drought indices and FireOcc is developed over the calibration period 1959-1998. Next, together with seven tree-ring based drought reconstructions covering the last 240 years and simulations from the CGCM3 and ECHAM4 global climate models, the calibration model is used to estimate past (prior to 1959) and future (post 1999) FireOcc. Last, time-dependent changes in mean FireOcc and in the occurrence rate of extreme fire years are evaluated with the aid of advanced methods of statistical time series analysis. Results suggest that the increase in precipitation projected toward the end of the 21st century will be insufficient to compensate for increasing temperatures and will be insufficient to maintain potential evapotranspiration at current levels. Limited moisture availability would cause FireOcc to increase as well. But will future FireOcc exceed its historical range? The results obtained from our approach suggest high probabilities of seeing future FireOcc reach the upper limit of the historical range. Predictions, which are essentially weighed on northwestern Ontario and eastern boreal Manitoba, indicate that, by 2061-2100, typical FireOcc could increase by more than 34% when compared with the past two centuries. Increases in fire activity as projected by this study could negatively affect the implementation in the next century of forest management inspired by historical or natural disturbance dynamics. This approach is indeed feasible only if current and future fire activities are sufficiently low compared with the preindustrial fire activity, so a substitution of fire by forest management could occur without elevating the overall frequency of disturbance. Conceivable management options will likely have to be directed toward minimizing the adverse impacts of the increasing fire activity.

Quantifying the importance of model-to-model variability in integrated assessments of 21st century climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bond-Lamberty, B. P.; Jones, A. D.; Shi, X.; Calvin, K. V.

2016-12-01

The C4MIP and CMIP5 model intercomparison projects (MIPs) highlighted uncertainties in climate projections, driven to a large extent by interactions between the terrestrial carbon cycle and climate feedbacks. In addition, the importance of feedbacks between human (energy and economic) systems and natural (carbon and climate) systems is poorly understood, and not considered in the previous MIP protocols. The experiments conducted under the previous Integrated Earth System Model (iESM) project, which coupled a earth system model with an integrated assessment model (GCAM), found that the inclusion of climate feedbacks on the terrestrial system in an RCP4.5 scenario increased ecosystem productivity, resulting in declines in cropland extent and increases in bioenergy production and forest cover. As a follow-up to these studies and to further understand climate-carbon cycle interactions and feedbacks, we examined the robustness of these results by running a suite of GCAM-only experiments using changes in ecosystem productivity derived from both the CMIP5 archive and the Agricultural Model Intercomparison Project. In our results, the effects of climate on yield in an RCP8.5 scenario tended to be more positive than those of AgMIP, but more negative than those of the other CMIP models. We discuss these results and the implications of model-to-model variability for integrated coupling studies of the future earth system.

Quantifying the sources of uncertainty in an ensemble of hydrological climate-impact projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aryal, Anil; Shrestha, Sangam; Babel, Mukand S.

2018-01-01

The objective of this paper is to quantify the various sources of uncertainty in the assessment of climate change impact on hydrology in the Tamakoshi River Basin, located in the north-eastern part of Nepal. Multiple climate and hydrological models were used to simulate future climate conditions and discharge in the basin. The simulated results of future climate and river discharge were analysed for the quantification of sources of uncertainty using two-way and three-way ANOVA. The results showed that temperature and precipitation in the study area are projected to change in near- (2010-2039), mid- (2040-2069) and far-future (2070-2099) periods. Maximum temperature is likely to rise by 1.75 °C under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and by 3.52 °C under RCP 8.5. Similarly, the minimum temperature is expected to rise by 2.10 °C under RCP 4.5 and by 3.73 °C under RCP 8.5 by the end of the twenty-first century. Similarly, the precipitation in the study area is expected to change by - 2.15% under RCP 4.5 and - 2.44% under RCP 8.5 scenarios. The future discharge in the study area was projected using two hydrological models, viz. Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and Hydrologic Engineering Center's Hydrologic Modelling System (HEC-HMS). The SWAT model projected discharge is expected to change by small amount, whereas HEC-HMS model projected considerably lower discharge in future compared to the baseline period. The results also show that future climate variables and river hydrology contain uncertainty due to the choice of climate models, RCP scenarios, bias correction methods and hydrological models. During wet days, more uncertainty is observed due to the use of different climate models, whereas during dry days, the use of different hydrological models has a greater effect on uncertainty. Inter-comparison of the impacts of different climate models reveals that the REMO climate model shows higher uncertainty in the prediction of precipitation and, consequently, in the prediction of future discharge and maximum probable flood.

Adapting wheat to uncertain future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Semenov, Mikhail; Stratonovitch, Pierre

2015-04-01

This study describes integration of climate change projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) multi-model ensemble with the LARS-WG weather generator, which delivers an attractive option for downscaling of large-scale climate projections from global climate models (GCMs) to local-scale climate scenarios for impact assessments. A subset of 18 GCMs from the CMIP5 ensemble and 2 RCPs, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, were integrated with LARS-WG. Climate sensitivity indexes for temperature and precipitation were computed for all GCMs and for 21 regions in the world. For computationally demanding impact assessments, where it is not practical to explore all possible combinations of GCM × RCP, climate sensitivity indexes could be used to select a subset of GCMs from CMIP5 with contrasting climate sensitivity. This would allow to quantify uncertainty in impacts resulting from the CMIP5 ensemble by conducting fewer simulation experiments. As an example, an in silico design of wheat ideotype optimised for future climate scenarios in Europe was described. Two contrasting GCMs were selected for the analysis, "hot" HadGEM2-ES and "cool" GISS-E2-R-CC, along with 2 RCPs. Despite large uncertainty in climate projections, several wheat traits were identified as beneficial for the high-yielding wheat ideotypes that could be used as targets for wheat improvement by breeders.

AgMIP Climate Data and Scenarios for Integrated Assessment. Chapter 3

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ruane, Alexander C.; Winter, Jonathan M.; McDermid, Sonali P.; Hudson, Nicholas I.

2015-01-01

Climate change presents a great challenge to the agricultural sector as changes in precipitation, temperature, humidity, and circulation patterns alter the climatic conditions upon which many agricultural systems rely. Projections of future climate conditions are inherently uncertain owing to a lack of clarity on how society will develop, policies that may be implemented to reduce greenhouse-gas (GHG) emissions, and complexities in modeling the atmosphere, ocean, land, cryosphere, and biosphere components of the climate system. Global climate models (GCMs) are based on well-established physics of each climate component that enable the models to project climate responses to changing GHG concentration scenarios (Stocker et al., 2013).The most recent iteration of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5; Taylor et al., 2012) utilized representative concentration pathways (RCPs) to cover the range of plausible GHG concentrations out past the year 2100, with RCP8.5 representing an extreme scenario and RCP4.5 representing a lower concentrations scenario (Moss et al., 2010).

The Effects of Climate Model Similarity on Local, Risk-Based Adaptation Planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steinschneider, S.; Brown, C. M.

2014-12-01

The climate science community has recently proposed techniques to develop probabilistic projections of climate change from ensemble climate model output. These methods provide a means to incorporate the formal concept of risk, i.e., the product of impact and probability, into long-term planning assessments for local systems under climate change. However, approaches for pdf development often assume that different climate models provide independent information for the estimation of probabilities, despite model similarities that stem from a common genealogy. Here we utilize an ensemble of projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to develop probabilistic climate information, with and without an accounting of inter-model correlations, and use it to estimate climate-related risks to a local water utility in Colorado, U.S. We show that the tail risk of extreme climate changes in both mean precipitation and temperature is underestimated if model correlations are ignored. When coupled with impact models of the hydrology and infrastructure of the water utility, the underestimation of extreme climate changes substantially alters the quantification of risk for water supply shortages by mid-century. We argue that progress in climate change adaptation for local systems requires the recognition that there is less information in multi-model climate ensembles than previously thought. Importantly, adaptation decisions cannot be limited to the spread in one generation of climate models.

The effect of the East Atlantic pattern on the precipitation δ18O-NAO relationship in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Comas-Bru, L.; McDermott, F.; Werner, M.

2016-10-01

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is known to influence precipitation δ18O (δ18Op) through its control on air temperature and on the trajectory of the westerly winds that carry moisture onto Europe during boreal winters. Hence, paleoclimate studies seeking to reconstruct the NAO can exploit the δ18O signal that is commonly preserved in natural archives such as stalagmites, ice cores, tree rings and lake sediments. However, such reconstructions should consider the uncertainties that arise from non-stationarities in the δ18Op-NAO relationship. Here, new insights into the causes of these temporal non-stationarities are presented for the European region using both observations (GNIP database) and the output of an isotope-enabled general circulation model (ECHAM5-wiso). The results show that, although the East Atlantic (EA) pattern is generally uncorrelated to δ18Op during the instrumental period, its polarity affects the δ18Op-NAO relationship. Non-stationarities in this relationship result from spatial shifts of the δ18Op-NAO correlated areas as a consequence of different NAO/EA combinations. These shifts are consistent with those reported previously for NAO-winter climate variables and the resulting non-stationarities mean that δ18O-based NAO reconstructions could be compromised if the balance of positive and negative NAO/EA states differs substantially in a calibration period compared with the period of interest in the past. The same approach has been followed to assess the relationships between δ18Op and both winter total precipitation and winter mean surface air temperature, with similar results. Crucially, this study also identifies regions within Europe where temporal changes in the NAO, air temperature and precipitation can be more robustly reconstructed using δ18O time series from natural archives, irrespective of concomitant changes in the EA.

Creation of Synthetic Surface Temperature and Precipitation Ensembles Through A Computationally Efficient, Mixed Method Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hartin, C.; Lynch, C.; Kravitz, B.; Link, R. P.; Bond-Lamberty, B. P.

2017-12-01

Typically, uncertainty quantification of internal variability relies on large ensembles of climate model runs under multiple forcing scenarios or perturbations in a parameter space. Computationally efficient, standard pattern scaling techniques only generate one realization and do not capture the complicated dynamics of the climate system (i.e., stochastic variations with a frequency-domain structure). In this study, we generate large ensembles of climate data with spatially and temporally coherent variability across a subselection of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models. First, for each CMIP5 model we apply a pattern emulation approach to derive the model response to external forcing. We take all the spatial and temporal variability that isn't explained by the emulator and decompose it into non-physically based structures through use of empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs). Then, we perform a Fourier decomposition of the EOF projection coefficients to capture the input fields' temporal autocorrelation so that our new emulated patterns reproduce the proper timescales of climate response and "memory" in the climate system. Through this 3-step process, we derive computationally efficient climate projections consistent with CMIP5 model trends and modes of variability, which address a number of deficiencies inherent in the ability of pattern scaling to reproduce complex climate model behavior.

The Change of Climate and Terrestrial Carbon Cycle over Tibetan Plateau in CMIP5 Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, S.

2015-12-01

Six earth system models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) are evaluated over Tibetan Plateau (TP) by comparing the modeled temperature (Tas), precipitation (Pr), net primary production (NPP) and leaf area index (LAI) with the observed Tas, Pr, IGBP NPP and MPIM LAI in the historical, and then we analyzed the change of climate and carbon cycle and explored the relationship between the carbon cycle and main climatic drivers in the historical and representative concentration pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) simulation over TP. While model results differ, their region spatial distributions from 1971 to 2000 agree reasonably with observed Tas, Pr and proxy LAI and NPP. The climatic variables, LAI and carbon flux vary between two simulations, the ration of NPP to gross primary production (GPP) does not change much in the historical and RCP4.5 scenarios. The linear trends of LAI and carbon flux show an obvious continuous increase from historical climatic period (1971-2000) to the first two climatic periods (2011-2040; 2041-2700) of RCP4.5, then the trends decrease in the third climatic period (2071-2100) of RCP4.5. The cumulative multi model ensemble (MME) net biome production (NBP) is 0.32 kgCm-2yr-1 during 1850 to 2005 and 1.43 kgCm-2yr-1 during 2006 to 2100, the Tibetan Plateau is a carbon sink during the historical scenario, and TP will uptake more carbon from atmosphere during 2006 to 2100 than 1850 to 2005 under RCP4.5 scenario. LAI, GPP, NPP, Ra and Rh appear more related to the Tas than Pr and Rsds, and the Tas is the primary climatic driver for the plant growth and carbon cycle. With the climate change in twenty-first century under RCP4.5 scenario, Tas still is the primary climate driver for the plant growth and carbon cycle, but the effect of temperature on plant growth and carbon cycle gets weaker.

(Un)certainty in climate change impacts on global energy consumption

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Ruijven, B. J.; De Cian, E.; Sue Wing, I.

2017-12-01

Climate change is expected to have an influence on the energy sector, especially on energy demand. For many locations, this change in energy demand is a balance between increase of demand for space cooling and a decrease of space heating demand. We perform a large-scale uncertainty analysis to characterize climate change risk on energy consumption as driven by climate and socioeconomic uncertainty. We combine a dynamic econometric model1 with multiple realizations of temperature projections from all 21 CMIP5 models (from the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections2) under moderate (RCP4.5) and vigorous (RCP8.5) warming. Global spatial population projections for five SSPs are combined with GDP projections to construct scenarios for future energy demand driven by socioeconomic change. Between the climate models, we find a median global increase in climate-related energy demand of around 24% by 2050 under RCP8.5 with an interquartile range of 18-38%. Most climate models agree on increases in energy demand of more than 25% or 50% in tropical regions, the Southern USA and Southern China (see Figure). With respect to socioeconomic scenarios, we find wide variations between the SSPs for the number of people in low-income countries who are exposed to increases in energy demand. Figure attached: Number of models that agree on total climate-related energy consumption to increase or decrease by more than 0, 10, 25 or 50% by 2050 under RCP8.5 and SSP5 as result of the CMIP5 ensemble of temperature projections. References1. De Cian, E. & Sue Wing, I. Global Energy Demand in a Warming Climate. (FEEM, 2016). 2. Thrasher, B., Maurer, E. P., McKellar, C. & Duffy, P. B. Technical Note: Bias correcting climate model simulated daily temperature extremes with quantile mapping. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 16, 3309-3314 (2012).

The impact of climate change on the distribution of two threatened Dipterocarp trees.

PubMed

Deb, Jiban C; Phinn, Stuart; Butt, Nathalie; McAlpine, Clive A

2017-04-01

Two ecologically and economically important, and threatened Dipterocarp trees Sal ( Shorea robusta ) and Garjan ( Dipterocarpus turbinatus ) form mono-specific canopies in dry deciduous, moist deciduous, evergreen, and semievergreen forests across South Asia and continental parts of Southeast Asia. They provide valuable timber and play an important role in the economy of many Asian countries. However, both Dipterocarp trees are threatened by continuing forest clearing, habitat alteration, and global climate change. While climatic regimes in the Asian tropics are changing, research on climate change-driven shifts in the distribution of tropical Asian trees is limited. We applied a bioclimatic modeling approach to these two Dipterocarp trees Sal and Garjan. We used presence-only records for the tree species, five bioclimatic variables, and selected two climatic scenarios (RCP4.5: an optimistic scenario and RCP8.5: a pessimistic scenario) and three global climate models (GCMs) to encompass the full range of variation in the models. We modeled climate space suitability for both species, projected to 2070, using a climate envelope modeling tool "MaxEnt" (the maximum entropy algorithm). Annual precipitation was the key bioclimatic variable in all GCMs for explaining the current and future distributions of Sal and Garjan (Sal: 49.97 ± 1.33; Garjan: 37.63 ± 1.19). Our models predict that suitable climate space for Sal will decline by 24% and 34% (the mean of the three GCMs) by 2070 under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. In contrast, the consequences of imminent climate change appear less severe for Garjan, with a decline of 17% and 27% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. The findings of this study can be used to set conservation guidelines for Sal and Garjan by identifying vulnerable habitats in the region. In addition, the natural habitats of Sal and Garjan can be categorized as low to high risk under changing climates where artificial regeneration should be undertaken for forest restoration.

Future global mortality from changes in air pollution attributable to climate change

DOE PAGES

Silva, Raquel A.; West, J. Jason; Lamarque, Jean-François; ...

2017-07-31

Ground-level ozone and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) are associated with premature human mortality(1-4); their future concentrations depend on changes in emissions, which dominate the near-term(5), and on climate change(6,7). Previous global studies of the air-quality-related health effects of future climate change(8,9) used single atmospheric models. But, in related studies, mortality results differ among models(10-12). Here we use an ensemble of global chemistry-climate models(13) to show that premature mortality from changes in air pollution attributable to climate change, under the high greenhouse gas scenario RCP8.5 (ref. 14), is probably positive. We estimate 3,340 (-30,300 to 47,100) ozone-related deaths in 2030, relativemore » to 2000 climate, and 43,600 (-195,000 to 237,000) in 2100 (14% of the increase in global ozone-related mortality). For PM2.5, we estimate 55,600 (-34,300 to 164,000) deaths in 2030 and 215,000 (-76,100 to 595,000) in 2100 (countering by 16% the global decrease in PM2.5-related mortality). Premature mortality attributable to climate change is estimated to be positive in all regions except Africa, and is greatest in India and East Asia. Finally, most individual models yield increased mortality from climate change, but some yield decreases, suggesting caution in interpreting results from a single model. Climate change mitigation is likely to reduce air-pollution-related mortality.« less

Future global mortality from changes in air pollution attributable to climate change

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Silva, Raquel A.; West, J. Jason; Lamarque, Jean-François

Ground-level ozone and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) are associated with premature human mortality(1-4); their future concentrations depend on changes in emissions, which dominate the near-term(5), and on climate change(6,7). Previous global studies of the air-quality-related health effects of future climate change(8,9) used single atmospheric models. But, in related studies, mortality results differ among models(10-12). Here we use an ensemble of global chemistry-climate models(13) to show that premature mortality from changes in air pollution attributable to climate change, under the high greenhouse gas scenario RCP8.5 (ref. 14), is probably positive. We estimate 3,340 (-30,300 to 47,100) ozone-related deaths in 2030, relativemore » to 2000 climate, and 43,600 (-195,000 to 237,000) in 2100 (14% of the increase in global ozone-related mortality). For PM2.5, we estimate 55,600 (-34,300 to 164,000) deaths in 2030 and 215,000 (-76,100 to 595,000) in 2100 (countering by 16% the global decrease in PM2.5-related mortality). Premature mortality attributable to climate change is estimated to be positive in all regions except Africa, and is greatest in India and East Asia. Finally, most individual models yield increased mortality from climate change, but some yield decreases, suggesting caution in interpreting results from a single model. Climate change mitigation is likely to reduce air-pollution-related mortality.« less

The effect of future outdoor air pollution on human health and the contribution of climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silva, R.; West, J. J.; Lamarque, J.; Shindell, D.; Collins, W.; Dalsoren, S. B.; Faluvegi, G. S.; Folberth, G.; Horowitz, L. W.; Nagashima, T.; Naik, V.; Rumbold, S.; Skeie, R.; Sudo, K.; Takemura, T.; Bergmann, D. J.; Cameron-Smith, P. J.; Cionni, I.; Doherty, R. M.; Eyring, V.; Josse, B.; MacKenzie, I. A.; Plummer, D.; Righi, M.; Stevenson, D. S.; Strode, S. A.; Szopa, S.; Zeng, G.

2013-12-01

At present, exposure to outdoor air pollution from ozone and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) causes over 2 million deaths per year, due to respiratory and cardiovascular diseases and lung cancer. Future ambient concentrations of ozone and PM2.5 will be affected by both air pollutant emissions and climate change. Here we estimate the potential impact of future outdoor air pollution on premature human mortality, and isolate the contribution of future climate change due to its effect on air quality. We use modeled present-day (2000) and future global ozone and PM2.5 concentrations from simulations with an ensemble of chemistry-climate models from the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP). Future air pollution was modeled for global greenhouse gas and air pollutant emissions in the four IPCC AR5 Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios, for 2030, 2050 and 2100. All model outputs are regridded to a common 0.5°x0.5° horizontal resolution. Future premature mortality is estimated for each RCP scenario and year based on changes in concentrations of ozone and PM2.5 relative to 2000. Using a health impact function, changes in concentrations for each RCP scenario are combined with future population and cause-specific baseline mortality rates as projected by a single independent scenario in which the global incidence of cardiopulmonary diseases is expected to increase. The effect of climate change is isolated by considering the difference between air pollutant concentrations from simulations with 2000 emissions and a future year climate and simulations with 2000 emissions and climate. Uncertainties in the results reflect the uncertainty in the concentration-response function and that associated with variability among models. Few previous studies have quantified the effects of future climate change on global human health via changes in air quality, and this is the first such study to use an ensemble of global models.

MUSICA MetOp/IASI {H2O,δD} pair retrieval simulations for validating tropospheric moisture pathways in atmospheric models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schneider, Matthias; Borger, Christian; Wiegele, Andreas; Hase, Frank; García, Omaira E.; Sepúlveda, Eliezer; Werner, Martin

2017-02-01

The project MUSICA (MUlti-platform remote Sensing of Isotopologues for investigating the Cycle of Atmospheric water) has shown that the sensor IASI aboard the satellite MetOp can measure the free tropospheric {H2O,δD} pair distribution twice per day on a quasi-global scale. Such data are very promising for investigating tropospheric moisture pathways, however, the complex data characteristics compromise their usage in the context of model evaluation studies. Here we present a tool that allows for simulating MUSICA MetOp/IASI {H2O,δD} pair remote sensing data for a given model atmosphere, thereby creating model data that have the remote sensing data characteristics assimilated. This model data can then be compared to the MUSICA data. The retrieval simulation method is based on the physical principles of radiative transfer and we show that the uncertainty of the simulations is within the uncertainty of the MUSICA MetOp/IASI products, i.e. the retrieval simulations are reliable enough. We demonstrate the working principle of the simulator by applying it to ECHAM5-wiso model data. The few case studies clearly reveal the large potential of the MUSICA MetOp/IASI {H2O,δD} data pairs for evaluating modelled moisture pathways. The tool is made freely available in form of MATLAB and Python routines and can be easily connected to any atmospheric water vapour isotopologue model.

Direct Radiative Effect of Aerosols Based on PARASOL and OMI Satellite Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lacagnina, Carlo; Hasekamp, Otto P.; Torres, Omar

2017-01-01

Accurate portrayal of the aerosol characteristics is crucial to determine aerosol contribution to the Earth's radiation budget. We employ novel satellite retrievals to make a new measurement-based estimate of the shortwave direct radiative effect of aerosols (DREA), both over land and ocean. Global satellite measurements of aerosol optical depth, single-scattering albedo (SSA), and phase function from PARASOL (Polarization and Anisotropy of Reflectances for Atmospheric Sciences coupled with Observations from a Lidar) are used in synergy with OMI (Ozone Monitoring Instrument) SSA. Aerosol information is combined with land-surface bidirectional reflectance distribution function and cloud characteristics from MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) satellite products. Eventual gaps in observations are filled with the state-of-the-art global aerosol model ECHAM5-HAM2. It is found that our estimate of DREA is largely insensitive to model choice. Radiative transfer calculations show that DREA at top-of-atmosphere is -4.6 +/- 1.5 W/sq m for cloud-free and -2.1 +/- 0.7 W/sq m for all-sky conditions, during year 2006. These fluxes are consistent with, albeit generally less negative over ocean than, former assessments. Unlike previous studies, our estimate is constrained by retrievals of global coverage SSA, which may justify different DREA values. Remarkable consistency is found in comparison with DREA based on CERES (Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System) and MODIS observations.

The millennium water vapour drop in chemistry-climate model simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brinkop, Sabine; Dameris, Martin; Jöckel, Patrick; Garny, Hella; Lossow, Stefan; Stiller, Gabriele

2016-07-01

This study investigates the abrupt and severe water vapour decline in the stratosphere beginning in the year 2000 (the "millennium water vapour drop") and other similarly strong stratospheric water vapour reductions by means of various simulations with the state-of-the-art Chemistry-Climate Model (CCM) EMAC (ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry Model). The model simulations differ with respect to the prescribed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and whether nudging is applied or not. The CCM EMAC is able to most closely reproduce the signature and pattern of the water vapour drop in agreement with those derived from satellite observations if the model is nudged. Model results confirm that this extraordinary water vapour decline is particularly obvious in the tropical lower stratosphere and is related to a large decrease in cold point temperature. The drop signal propagates under dilution to the higher stratosphere and to the poles via the Brewer-Dobson circulation (BDC). We found that the driving forces for this significant decline in water vapour mixing ratios are tropical sea surface temperature (SST) changes due to a coincidence with a preceding strong El Niño-Southern Oscillation event (1997/1998) followed by a strong La Niña event (1999/2000) and supported by the change of the westerly to the easterly phase of the equatorial stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in 2000. Correct (observed) SSTs are important for triggering the strong decline in water vapour. There are indications that, at least partly, SSTs contribute to the long period of low water vapour values from 2001 to 2006. For this period, the specific dynamical state of the atmosphere (overall atmospheric large-scale wind and temperature distribution) is important as well, as it causes the observed persistent low cold point temperatures. These are induced by a period of increased upwelling, which, however, has no corresponding pronounced signature in SSTs anomalies in the tropics. Our free-running simulations do not capture the drop as observed, because a) the cold point temperature has a low bias and thus the water vapour variability is reduced and b) because they do not simulate the appropriate dynamical state. Large negative water vapour declines are also found in other years and seem to be a feature which can be found after strong combined El Niño/La Niña events if the QBO west phase during La Niña changes to the east phase.

Documenting Climate Models and Their Simulations

DOE PAGES

Guilyardi, Eric; Balaji, V.; Lawrence, Bryan; ...

2013-05-01

The results of climate models are of increasing and widespread importance. No longer is climate model output of sole interest to climate scientists and researchers in the climate change impacts and adaptation fields. Now nonspecialists such as government officials, policy makers, and the general public all have an increasing need to access climate model output and understand its implications. For this host of users, accurate and complete metadata (i.e., information about how and why the data were produced) is required to document the climate modeling results. We describe a pilot community initiative to collect and make available documentation of climatemore » models and their simulations. In an initial application, a metadata repository is being established to provide information of this kind for a major internationally coordinated modeling activity known as CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5). We expected that for a wide range of stakeholders, this and similar community-managed metadata repositories will spur development of analysis tools that facilitate discovery and exploitation of Earth system simulations.« less

Toward Seamless Weather-Climate Prediction with a Global Cloud Resolving Model

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-01-14

distribution is unlimited. TOWARD SEAMLESS WEATHER- CLIMATE PREDICTION WITH A GLOBAL CLOUD RESOLVING MODEL PI: Tim Li IPRC/SOEST, University of Hawaii at...Project Final Report 3. DATES COVERED (From - To) 1 May 2012 - 30 September 2015 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE TOWARD SEAMLESS WEATHER- CLIMATE PREDICTION WITH...A GLOBAL CLOUD RESOLVING MODEL 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER N000141210450 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER ONR Marine Meteorology Program 6

Ocean waves from tropical cyclones in the Gulf of Mexico and the effect of climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Appendini, C. M.; Pedrozo-Acuña, A.; Meza-Padilla, R.; Torres-Freyermuth, A.; Cerezo-Mota, R.; López-González, J.

2016-12-01

To generate projections of wave climate associated to tropical cyclones is a challenge due to their short historical record of events, their low occurrence, and the poor wind field resolution in General Circulation Models. Synthetic tropical cyclones provide an alternative to overcome such limitations, improving robust statistics under present and future climates. We use synthetic events to characterize present and future wave climate associated with tropical cyclones in the Gulf of Mexico. The NCEP/NCAR atmospheric reanalysis and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models NOAA/GFDL CM3 and UK Met Office HADGEM2-ES, were used to derive present and future wave climate under RCPs 4.5 and 8.5. The results suggest an increase in wave activity for the future climate, particularly for the GFDL model that shows less bias in the present climate, although some areas are expected to decrease the wave energy. The practical implications of determining the future wave climate is exemplified by means of the 100-year design wave, where the use of the present climate may result in under/over design of structures, since the lifespan of a structure includes the future wave climate period.

Representation of the Great Lakes in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Version 5

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Briley, L.; Rood, R. B.

2017-12-01

The U.S. Great Lakes play a significant role in modifying regional temperatures and precipitation, and as the lakes change in response to a warming climate (i.e., warmer surface water temperatures, decreased ice cover, etc) lake-land-atmosphere dynamics are affected. Because the lakes modify regional weather and are a driver of regional climate change, understanding how they are represented in climate models is important to the reliability of model based information for the region. As part of the Great Lakes Integrated Sciences + Assessments (GLISA) Ensemble project, a major effort is underway to evaluate the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project version (CMIP) 5 global climate models for how well they physically represent the Great Lakes and lake-effects. The CMIP models were chosen because they are a primary source of information in many products developed for decision making (i.e., National Climate Assessment, downscaled future climate projections, etc.), yet there is very little description of how well they represent the lakes. This presentation will describe the results of our investigation of if and how the Great Lakes are represented in the CMIP5 models.

Projections of annual rainfall and surface temperature from CMIP5 models over the BIMSTEC countries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pattnayak, K. C.; Kar, S. C.; Dalal, Mamta; Pattnayak, R. K.

2017-05-01

Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) comprising Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Myanmar, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Thailand brings together 21% of the world population. Thus the impact of climate change in this region is a major concern for all. To study the climate change, fifth phase of Climate Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5) models have been used to project the climate for the 21st century under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 over the BIMSTEC countries for the period 1901 to 2100 (initial 105 years are historical period and the later 95 years are projected period). Climate change in the projected period has been examined with respect to the historical period. In order to validate the models, the mean annual rainfall has been compared with observations from multiple sources and temperature has been compared with the data from Climatic Research Unit (CRU) during the historical period. Comparison reveals that ensemble mean of the models is able to represent the observed spatial distribution of rainfall and temperature over the BIMSTEC countries. Therefore, data from these models may be used to study the future changes in the 21st century. Four out of six models show that the rainfall over India, Thailand and Myanmar has decreasing trend and Bangladesh, Bhutan, Nepal and Sri Lanka show an increasing trend in both the RCP scenarios. In case of temperature, all the models show an increasing trend over all the BIMSTEC countries in both the scenarios, however, the rate of increase is relatively less over Sri Lanka than the other countries. The rate of increase/decrease in rainfall and temperature are relatively more in RCP8.5 than RCP4.5 over all these countries. Inter-model comparison show that there are uncertainties within the CMIP5 model projections. More similar studies are required to be done for better understanding the model uncertainties in climate projections over this region.

How do emission patterns in megacities affect regional air pollution?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heil, A.; Richter, C.; Schroeder, S.; Schultz, M. G.

2010-12-01

Megacities around the world show distinctly different emission patterns in terms of absolute amounts and emission ratios of individual chemical compounds due to varying socio-economic developments and technological standards. The emission patterns influence the chemical reactivity of the urban pollution plume, and hence determine air quality in and around megacity areas. In this study, which is part of the European project CITYZEN (megaCITY - Zoom for the ENvironment), the effects of emission changes in four selected megacity areas on air pollution were investigated: BeNeLux (BNL), Istanbul (IST), Pearl River Delta (PRD) and Sao Paulo (SAP). The study aims at answering the question: how would air pollution in megacity X change if it had the same urban emissions per capita as megacity Y? Model simulations with the global chemistry climate model ECHAM5-MOZ were carried out for the year 2001 using a resolution of about 2 degrees in the horizontal and of 31 levels (surface to 10 hPa) in the vertical. The model was driven by meteorological input data from the ECMWF ERA Interim reanalysis. Emissions were taken from the gridded global ACCMIP emission inventory recently established for use in chemistry-climate simulations in connection to the IPCC-AR5 assessments (Lamarque et al. 2010). We carried out sensitivity simulations where emission patterns from each of the megacity areas were replaced by those from all others. This was done on the basis of the per capita emissions for each species and sector averaged over the respective region. Total per capita CO and NMVOC emissions are highest in PRD and lowest in SAP while total per capita NOx emissions are highest in BNL and lowest in SAP. There are strong differences in the relative contribution of the urban sectors to total emissions of individual compounds. As a result, each of the four megacity areas exhibits a very characteristic NMVOC speciation profile which determines the NMVOC-related photochemical ozone (O_3) creation potential. Compared to the emissions used in the reference simulation, changing per capita urban emissions in BNL into those of IST or SAP will lead to reduction in total megacity emissions of CO and NOx by between 40 to 80% and of between 5 to 20% for NMVOC. When the per capita emissions for PRD are applied, only NOx decreases (by 50%) while CO and NMVOC increase by between 20 and 40%. Similar changes occur when the emissions are interchanged in the other three regions. Annual mean ambient O_3 concentrations in the entire BNL megacity domain are elevated by 3 to 8 ppb in all sensitivity runs and a significant effect is also found outside the main megacity area. In the IST and PRD megacity areas, O_3 levels increase or decrease by 1 to 5 ppb when the per capita emissions from the other regions are used. For the SAP megacity area, all scenarios lead to a reduction of annual mean O_3 levels by more than 4 ppb in the north-western section of the domain while increases up to 3 ppb are predicted for some southern regions. We will also present an analysis of changes in the photochemical regimes related to altered emission patterns. The study can contribute directly to the development of air pollution abatement strategies.

Regional climate projections for the MENA-CORDEX domain: analysis of projected temperature and precipitation changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hänsler, Andreas; Weber, Torsten; Eggert, Bastian; Saeed, Fahad; Jacob, Daniela

2014-05-01

Within the CORDEX initiative a multi-model suite of regionalized climate change information will be made available for several regions of the world. The German Climate Service Center (CSC) is taking part in this initiative by applying the regional climate model REMO to downscale global climate projections of different coupled general circulation models (GCMs) for several CORDEX domains. Also for the MENA-CORDEX domain, a set of regional climate change projections has been established at the CSC by downscaling CMIP5 projections of the Max-Planck-Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) for the scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 with the regional model REMO for the time period from 1950 to 2100 to a horizontal resolution of 0.44 degree. In this study we investigate projected changes in future climate conditions over the domain towards the end of the 21st century. Focus in the analysis is given to projected changes in the temperature and rainfall characteristics and their differences for the two scenarios will be highlighted.

Southern Ocean bottom water characteristics in CMIP5 models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heuzé, CéLine; Heywood, Karen J.; Stevens, David P.; Ridley, Jeff K.

2013-04-01

Southern Ocean deep water properties and formation processes in climate models are indicative of their capability to simulate future climate, heat and carbon uptake, and sea level rise. Southern Ocean temperature and density averaged over 1986-2005 from 15 CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) climate models are compared with an observed climatology, focusing on bottom water. Bottom properties are reasonably accurate for half the models. Ten models create dense water on the Antarctic shelf, but it mixes with lighter water and is not exported as bottom water as in reality. Instead, most models create deep water by open ocean deep convection, a process occurring rarely in reality. Models with extensive deep convection are those with strong seasonality in sea ice. Optimum bottom properties occur in models with deep convection in the Weddell and Ross Gyres. Bottom Water formation processes are poorly represented in ocean models and are a key challenge for improving climate predictions.

The software architecture of climate models: a graphical comparison of CMIP5 and EMICAR5 configurations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alexander, K.; Easterbrook, S. M.

2015-04-01

We analyze the source code of eight coupled climate models, selected from those that participated in the CMIP5 (Taylor et al., 2012) or EMICAR5 (Eby et al., 2013; Zickfeld et al., 2013) intercomparison projects. For each model, we sort the preprocessed code into components and subcomponents based on dependency structure. We then create software architecture diagrams that show the relative sizes of these components/subcomponents and the flow of data between them. The diagrams also illustrate several major classes of climate model design; the distribution of complexity between components, which depends on historical development paths as well as the conscious goals of each institution; and the sharing of components between different modeling groups. These diagrams offer insights into the similarities and differences in structure between climate models, and have the potential to be useful tools for communication between scientists, scientific institutions, and the public.

Mesoscale weather and climate modeling with the global non-hydrostatic Goddard Earth Observing System Model (GEOS-5) at cloud-permitting resolutions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Putman, W. M.; Suarez, M.

2009-12-01

The Goddard Earth Observing System Model (GEOS-5), an earth system model developed in the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO), has integrated the non-hydrostatic finite-volume dynamical core on the cubed-sphere grid. The extension to a non-hydrostatic dynamical framework and the quasi-uniform cubed-sphere geometry permits the efficient exploration of global weather and climate modeling at cloud permitting resolutions of 10- to 4-km on today's high performance computing platforms. We have explored a series of incremental increases in global resolution with GEOS-5 from it's standard 72-level 27-km resolution (~5.5 million cells covering the globe from the surface to 0.1 hPa) down to 3.5-km (~3.6 billion cells). We will present results from a series of forecast experiments exploring the impact of the non-hydrostatic dynamics at transition resolutions of 14- to 7-km, and the influence of increased horizontal/vertical resolution on convection and physical parameterizations within GEOS-5. Regional and mesoscale features of 5- to 10-day weather forecasts will be presented and compared with satellite observations. Our results will highlight the impact of resolution on the structure of cloud features including tropical convection and tropical cyclone predicability, cloud streets, von Karman vortices, and the marine stratocumulus cloud layer. We will also present experiment design and early results from climate impact experiments for global non-hydrostatic models using GEOS-5. Our climate experiments will focus on support for the Year of Tropical Convection (YOTC). We will also discuss a seasonal climate time-slice experiment design for downscaling coarse resolution century scale climate simulations to global non-hydrostatic resolutions of 14- to 7-km with GEOS-5.

Including the dynamic relationship between climatic variables and leaf area index in a hydrological model to improve streamflow prediction under a changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tesemma, Z. K.; Wei, Y.; Peel, M. C.; Western, A. W.

2015-06-01

Anthropogenic climate change is projected to enrich the atmosphere with carbon dioxide, change vegetation dynamics and influence the availability of water at the catchment scale. This study combines a nonlinear model for estimating changes in leaf area index (LAI) due to climatic fluctuations with the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) hydrological model to improve catchment streamflow prediction under a changing climate. The combined model was applied to 13 gauged sub-catchments with different land cover types (crop, pasture and tree) in the Goulburn-Broken catchment, Australia, for the "Millennium Drought" (1997-2009) relative to the period 1983-1995, and for two future periods (2021-2050 and 2071-2100) and two emission scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP8.5) which were compared with the baseline historical period of 1981-2010. This region was projected to be warmer and mostly drier in the future as predicted by 38 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) runs from 15 global climate models (GCMs) and for two emission scenarios. The results showed that during the Millennium Drought there was about a 29.7-66.3 % reduction in mean annual runoff due to reduced precipitation and increased temperature. When drought-induced changes in LAI were included, smaller reductions in mean annual runoff of between 29.3 and 61.4 % were predicted. The proportional increase in runoff due to modeling LAI was 1.3-10.2 % relative to not including LAI. For projected climate change under the RCP4.5 emission scenario, ignoring the LAI response to changing climate could lead to a further reduction in mean annual runoff of between 2.3 and 27.7 % in the near-term (2021-2050) and 2.3 to 23.1 % later in the century (2071-2100) relative to modeling the dynamic response of LAI to precipitation and temperature changes. Similar results (near-term 2.5-25.9 % and end of century 2.6-24.2 %) were found for climate change under the RCP8.5 emission scenario. Incorporating climate-induced changes in LAI in the VIC model reduced the projected declines in streamflow and confirms the importance of including the effects of changes in LAI in future projections of streamflow.

Expansion of the Lyme Disease Vector Ixodes scapularis in Canada inferred from CMIP5 Climate Projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McPherson, Michelle Yvonne; García-García, Almudena; José Cuesta-Valero, Francisco; Beltrami, Hugo; Hansen-Ketchum, Patti; MacDougall, Donna; Hume Ogden, Nicholas

2017-04-01

A number of studies have assessed possible climate change impacts on the Lyme disease vector, Ixodes scapularis. However, most have used surface air temperature from only one climate model simulation and/or one emission scenario, representing only one possible climate future. We quantified effects of different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) and climate model outputs on the projected future changes in the basic reproduction number (R0) of I. scapularis to explore uncertainties in future R0 estimates. We used surface air temperature generated by a complete set of General Circulation Models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to hindcast historical and forecast future effects of climate change on the R0 of I. scapularis. As in previous studies, R0 of I. scapularis increased with a warming climate under future projected climate. Increases in the multi-model mean R0 values showed significant changes over time under all RCP scenarios, however; only the estimated R0 mean values between RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 showed statistically significant differences. Our results highlight the potential for climate change to have an effect on future Lyme disease risk in Canada even if the Paris Agreement's goal to keep global warming below 2°C is achieved, although mitigation reducing emissions from RCP8.5 levels to those of RCP6.0 or less would be expected to slow tick invasion after the 2030s. On-going planning is needed to inform and guide adaptation in light of the projected range of possible futures.

On the role of tropopause folds in summertime tropospheric ozone over the eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akritidis, Dimitris; Pozzer, Andrea; Zanis, Prodromos; Tyrlis, Evangelos; Škerlak, Bojan; Sprenger, Michael; Lelieveld, Jos

2016-11-01

We study the contribution of tropopause folds in the summertime pool of tropospheric ozone over the eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East (EMME) with the aid of the ECHAM5/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) model. Tropopause fold events in EMAC simulations were identified with a 3-D labeling algorithm that detects folds at grid points where multiple crossings of the dynamical tropopause are computed. Subsequently the events featuring the largest horizontal and vertical extent were selected for further study. For the selection of these events we identified a significant contribution of the stratospheric ozone reservoir to the high concentrations of ozone in the middle and lower free troposphere over the EMME. A distinct increase of ozone is found over the EMME in the middle troposphere during summer as a result of the fold activity, shifting towards the southeast and decreasing altitude. We find that the interannual variability of near-surface ozone over the eastern Mediterranean (EM) during summer is related to that of both tropopause folds and ozone in the free troposphere.

Extreme waves from tropical cyclones and climate change in the Gulf of Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Appendini, Christian M.; Pedrozo-Acuña, Adrian; Meza-Padilla, Rafael; Torres-Freyermuth, Alec; Cerezo-Mota, Ruth; López-González, José

2017-04-01

Tropical cyclones generate extreme waves that represent a risk to infrastructure and maritime activities. The projection of the tropical cyclones derived wave climate are challenged by the short historical record of tropical cyclones, their low occurrence, and the poor wind field resolution in General Circulation Models. In this study we use synthetic tropical cyclones to overcome such limitations and be able to characterize present and future wave climate associated with tropical cyclones in the Gulf of Mexico. Synthetic events derived from the NCEP/NCAR atmospheric reanalysis and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models NOAA/GFDL CM3 and UK Met Office HADGEM2-ES, were used to force a third generation wave model to characterize the present and future wave climate under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 escenarios. An increase in wave activity is projected for the future climate, particularly for the GFDL model that shows less bias in the present climate, although some areas are expected to decrease the wave energy. The practical implications of determining the future wave climate is exemplified by means of the 100-year design wave, where the use of the present climate may result in under/over design of structures, since the lifespan of a structure includes the future wave climate period.

Impacts of fine particulate matter on premature mortality under future climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, S.; Allen, R.; Lim, C. H.

2016-12-01

Climate change modulates concentration of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) via modifying atmospheric circulation and the hydrological cycle. Furthermore, surface PM2.5 is significantly associated with respiratory diseases and premature mortality. In this study, we assess the response of PM2.5 concentration to climate change in the future (end of 21st century) and its effects on year of life lost (YLL) and premature mortality. We use outputs from five models participating in the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP) to evaluate climate change effects on PM2.5: for present climate with current aerosol emissions and greenhouse gas concentrations, and for future climate, also with present-day aerosol emissions, but with end-of-the century greenhouse gas concentrations, sea surface temperatures and sea-ice. The results show that climate change is associated with an increase in PM2.5 concentration. Combined with global future population data from the United Nation (UN), we also find an increase in premature mortality and YLL.

Greenhouse gas policy influences climate via direct effects of land-use change

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jones, Andrew D.; Collins, William D.; Edmonds, James A.

2013-06-01

Proposed climate mitigation measures do not account for direct biophysical climate impacts of land-use change (LUC), nor do the stabilization targets modeled for the 5th Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). To examine the significance of such effects on global and regional patterns of climate change, a baseline and alternative scenario of future anthropogenic activity are simulated within the Integrated Earth System Model, which couples the Global Change Assessment Model, Global Land-use Model, and Community Earth System Model. The alternative scenario has high biofuel utilization and approximately 50% less global forest cover compared to the baseline, standardmore » RCP4.5 scenario. Both scenarios stabilize radiative forcing from atmospheric constituents at 4.5 W/m2 by 2100. Thus, differences between their climate predictions quantify the biophysical effects of LUC. Offline radiative transfer and land model simulations are also utilized to identify forcing and feedback mechanisms driving the coupled response. Boreal deforestation is found to strongly influence climate due to increased albedo coupled with a regional-scale water vapor feedback. Globally, the alternative scenario yields a 21st century warming trend that is 0.5 °C cooler than baseline, driven by a 1 W/m2 mean decrease in radiative forcing that is distributed unevenly around the globe. Some regions are cooler in the alternative scenario than in 2005. These results demonstrate that neither climate change nor actual radiative forcing are uniquely related to atmospheric forcing targets such as those found in the RCP’s, but rather depend on particulars of the socioeconomic pathways followed to meet each target.« less

Future Global Mortality from Changes in Air Pollution Attributable to Climate Change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Silva, Raquel A.; West, J. Jason; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Shindell, Drew T.; Collins, William J.; Faluvegi, Greg; Folberth, Gerd A.; Horowitz, Larry W.; Nagashima, Tatsuya; Naik, Vaishali;

Climate change indices for Greenland applied directly for other arctic regions - Enhanced and utilized climate information from one high resolution RCM downscaling for Greenland evaluated through pattern scaling and CMIP5

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olesen, M.; Christensen, J. H.; Boberg, F.

2016-12-01

Climate change indices for Greenland applied directly for other arctic regions - Enhanced and utilized climate information from one high resolution RCM downscaling for Greenland evaluated through pattern scaling and CMIP5Climate change affects the Greenlandic society both advantageously and disadvantageously. Changes in temperature and precipitation patterns may result in changes in a number of derived society related climate indices, such as the length of growing season or the number of annual dry days or a combination of the two - indices of substantial importance to society in a climate adaptation context.Detailed climate indices require high resolution downscaling. We have carried out a very high resolution (5 km) simulation with the regional climate model HIRHAM5, forced by the global model EC-Earth. Evaluation of RCM output is usually done with an ensemble of downscaled output with multiple RCM's and GCM's. Here we have introduced and tested a new technique; a translation of the robustness of an ensemble of GCM models from CMIP5 into the specific index from the HIRHAM5 downscaling through a correlation between absolute temperatures and its corresponding index values from the HIRHAM5 output.The procedure is basically conducted in two steps: First, the correlation between temperature and a given index for the HIRHAM5 simulation by a best fit to a second order polynomial is identified. Second, the standard deviation from the CMIP5 simulations is introduced to show the corresponding standard deviation of the index from the HIRHAM5 run. The change of specific climate indices due to global warming will then be possible to evaluate elsewhere corresponding to the change in absolute temperature.Results based on selected indices with focus on the future climate in Greenland calculated for the rcp4.5 and rcp8.5 scenarios will be presented.

The future of the Devon Ice cap: results from climate and ice dynamics modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mottram, Ruth; Rodehacke, Christian; Boberg, Fredrik

2017-04-01

The Devon Ice Cap is an example of a relatively well monitored small ice cap in the Canadian Arctic. Close to Greenland, it shows a similar surface mass balance signal to glaciers in western Greenland. Here we use high resolution (5km) simulations from HIRHAM5 to drive the PISM glacier model in order to model the present day and future prospects of this small Arctic ice cap. Observational data from the Devon Ice Cap in Arctic Canada is used to evaluate the surface mass balance (SMB) data output from the HIRHAM5 model for simulations forced with the ERA-Interim climate reanalysis data and the historical emissions scenario run by the EC-Earth global climate model. The RCP8.5 scenario simulated by EC-Earth is also downscaled by HIRHAM5 and this output is used to force the PISM model to simulate the likely future evolution of the Devon Ice Cap under a warming climate. We find that the Devon Ice Cap is likely to continue its present day retreat, though in the future increased precipitation partly offsets the enhanced melt rates caused by climate change.

Koeppen Bioclimatic Metrics for Evaluating CMIP5 Simulations of Historical Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Phillips, T. J.; Bonfils, C.

2012-12-01

The classic Koeppen bioclimatic classification scheme associates generic vegetation types (e.g. grassland, tundra, broadleaf or evergreen forests, etc.) with regional climate zones defined by the observed amplitude and phase of the annual cycles of continental temperature (T) and precipitation (P). Koeppen classification thus can provide concise, multivariate metrics for evaluating climate model performance in simulating the regional magnitudes and seasonalities of climate variables that are of critical importance for living organisms. In this study, 14 Koeppen vegetation types are derived from annual-cycle climatologies of T and P in some 3 dozen CMIP5 simulations of 1980-1999 climate, a period when observational data provides a reliable global validation standard. Metrics for evaluating the ability of the CMIP5 models to simulate the correct locations and areas of the vegetation types, as well as measures of overall model performance, also are developed. It is found that the CMIP5 models are most deficient in simulating 1) the climates of the drier zones (e.g. desert, savanna, grassland, steppe vegetation types) that are located in the Southwestern U.S. and Mexico, Eastern Europe, Southern Africa, and Central Australia, as well as 2) the climate of regions such as Central Asia and Western South America where topography plays a central role. (Detailed analysis of regional biases in the annual cycles of T and P of selected simulations exemplifying general model performance problems also are to be presented.) The more encouraging results include evidence for a general improvement in CMIP5 performance relative to that of older CMIP3 models. Within CMIP5 also, the more complex Earth Systems Models (ESMs) with prognostic biogeochemistry perform comparably to the corresponding global models that simulate only the "physical" climate. Acknowledgments This work was funded by the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Science and was performed at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344.

Changes in Concurrent Precipitation and Temperature Extremes

DOE PAGES

Hao, Zengchao; AghaKouchak, Amir; Phillips, Thomas J.

2013-08-01

While numerous studies have addressed changes in climate extremes, analyses of concurrence of climate extremes are scarce, and climate change effects on joint extremes are rarely considered. This study assesses the occurrence of joint (concurrent) monthly continental precipitation and temperature extremes in Climate Research Unit (CRU) and University of Delaware (UD) observations, and in 13 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate simulations. Moreover, the joint occurrences of precipitation and temperature extremes simulated by CMIP5 climate models are compared with those derived from the CRU and UD observations for warm/wet, warm/dry, cold/wet, and cold/dry combinations of joint extremes.more » The number of occurrences of these four combinations during the second half of the 20th century (1951–2004) is assessed on a common global grid. CRU and UD observations show substantial increases in the occurrence of joint warm/dry and warm/wet combinations for the period 1978–2004 relative to 1951–1977. The results show that with respect to the sign of change in the concurrent extremes, the CMIP5 climate model simulations are in reasonable overall agreement with observations. The results reveal notable discrepancies between regional patterns and the magnitude of change in individual climate model simulations relative to the observations of precipitation and temperature.« less

What’s Needed from Climate Modeling to Advance Actionable Science for Water Utilities?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barsugli, J. J.; Anderson, C. J.; Smith, J. B.; Vogel, J. M.

2009-12-01

“…perfect information on climate change is neither available today nor likely to be available in the future, but … over time, as the threats climate change poses to our systems grow more real, predicting those effects with greater certainty is non-discretionary. We’re not yet at a level at which climate change projections can drive climate change adaptation.” (Testimony of WUCA Staff Chair David Behar to the House Committee on Science and Technology, May 5, 2009) To respond to this challenge, the Water Utility Climate Alliance (WUCA) has sponsored a white paper titled “Options for Improving Climate Modeling to Assist Water Utility Planning for Climate Change. ” This report concerns how investments in the science of climate change, and in particular climate modeling and downscaling, can best be directed to help make climate projections more actionable. The meaning of “model improvement” can be very different depending on whether one is talking to a climate model developer or to a water manager trying to incorporate climate projections in to planning. We first surveyed the WUCA members on present and potential uses of climate model projections and on climate inputs to their various system models. Based on those surveys and on subsequent discussions, we identified four dimensions along which improvement in modeling would make the science more “actionable”: improved model agreement on change in key parameters; narrowing the range of model projections; providing projections at spatial and temporal scales that match water utilities system models; providing projections that water utility planning horizons. With these goals in mind we developed four options for improving global-scale climate modeling and three options for improving downscaling that will be discussed. However, there does not seem to be a single investment - the proverbial “magic bullet” -- which will substantially reduce the range of model projections at the scales at which utility planning is conducted. In the near term we feel strongly that water utilities and climate scientists should work together to leverage the upcoming Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5; a coordinated set climate model experiments that will be used to support the upcoming IPCC Fifth Assessment) to better benefit water utilities. In the longer term, even with model and downscaling improvements, it is very likely that substantial uncertainty about future climate change at the desired spatial and temporal scales will remain. Nonetheless, there is no doubt the climate is changing, and the challenge is to work with what we have, or what we can reasonably expect to have in the coming years to make the best decisions we can.

A Novel Modelling Approach for Predicting Forest Growth and Yield under Climate Change.

PubMed

Ashraf, M Irfan; Meng, Fan-Rui; Bourque, Charles P-A; MacLean, David A

2015-01-01

Global climate is changing due to increasing anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases. Forest managers need growth and yield models that can be used to predict future forest dynamics during the transition period of present-day forests under a changing climatic regime. In this study, we developed a forest growth and yield model that can be used to predict individual-tree growth under current and projected future climatic conditions. The model was constructed by integrating historical tree growth records with predictions from an ecological process-based model using neural networks. The new model predicts basal area (BA) and volume growth for individual trees in pure or mixed species forests. For model development, tree-growth data under current climatic conditions were obtained using over 3000 permanent sample plots from the Province of Nova Scotia, Canada. Data to reflect tree growth under a changing climatic regime were projected with JABOWA-3 (an ecological process-based model). Model validation with designated data produced model efficiencies of 0.82 and 0.89 in predicting individual-tree BA and volume growth. Model efficiency is a relative index of model performance, where 1 indicates an ideal fit, while values lower than zero means the predictions are no better than the average of the observations. Overall mean prediction error (BIAS) of basal area and volume growth predictions was nominal (i.e., for BA: -0.0177 cm(2) 5-year(-1) and volume: 0.0008 m(3) 5-year(-1)). Model variability described by root mean squared error (RMSE) in basal area prediction was 40.53 cm(2) 5-year(-1) and 0.0393 m(3) 5-year(-1) in volume prediction. The new modelling approach has potential to reduce uncertainties in growth and yield predictions under different climate change scenarios. This novel approach provides an avenue for forest managers to generate required information for the management of forests in transitional periods of climate change. Artificial intelligence technology has substantial potential in forest modelling.

A Novel Modelling Approach for Predicting Forest Growth and Yield under Climate Change

PubMed Central

Ashraf, M. Irfan; Meng, Fan-Rui; Bourque, Charles P.-A.; MacLean, David A.

2015-01-01

Global climate is changing due to increasing anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases. Forest managers need growth and yield models that can be used to predict future forest dynamics during the transition period of present-day forests under a changing climatic regime. In this study, we developed a forest growth and yield model that can be used to predict individual-tree growth under current and projected future climatic conditions. The model was constructed by integrating historical tree growth records with predictions from an ecological process-based model using neural networks. The new model predicts basal area (BA) and volume growth for individual trees in pure or mixed species forests. For model development, tree-growth data under current climatic conditions were obtained using over 3000 permanent sample plots from the Province of Nova Scotia, Canada. Data to reflect tree growth under a changing climatic regime were projected with JABOWA-3 (an ecological process-based model). Model validation with designated data produced model efficiencies of 0.82 and 0.89 in predicting individual-tree BA and volume growth. Model efficiency is a relative index of model performance, where 1 indicates an ideal fit, while values lower than zero means the predictions are no better than the average of the observations. Overall mean prediction error (BIAS) of basal area and volume growth predictions was nominal (i.e., for BA: -0.0177 cm2 5-year-1 and volume: 0.0008 m3 5-year-1). Model variability described by root mean squared error (RMSE) in basal area prediction was 40.53 cm2 5-year-1 and 0.0393 m3 5-year-1 in volume prediction. The new modelling approach has potential to reduce uncertainties in growth and yield predictions under different climate change scenarios. This novel approach provides an avenue for forest managers to generate required information for the management of forests in transitional periods of climate change. Artificial intelligence technology has substantial potential in forest modelling. PMID:26173081

Assessment of climate change impact on yield of major crops in the Banas River Basin, India.

PubMed

Dubey, Swatantra Kumar; Sharma, Devesh

2018-09-01

Crop growth models like AquaCrop are useful in understanding the impact of climate change on crop production considering the various projections from global circulation models and regional climate models. The present study aims to assess the climate change impact on yield of major crops in the Banas River Basin i.e., wheat, barley and maize. Banas basin is part of the semi-arid region of Rajasthan state in India. AquaCrop model is used to calculate the yield of all the three crops for a historical period of 30years (1981-2010) and then compared with observed yield data. Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) values are calculated to assess the model accuracy in prediction of yield. Further, the calibrated model is used to predict the possible impacts of climate change and CO 2 concentration on crop yield using CORDEX-SA climate projections of three driving climate models (CNRM-CM5, CCSM4 and MPI-ESM-LR) for two different scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) for the future period 2021-2050. RMSE values of simulated yield with respect to observed yield of wheat, barley and maize are 11.99, 16.15 and 19.13, respectively. It is predicted that crop yield of all three crops will increase under the climate change conditions for future period (2021-2050). Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Astronomically paced middle Eocene deepwater circulation in the western North Atlantic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vahlenkamp, Maximilian; Niezgodzki, Igor; De Vleeschouwer, David; Bickert, Torsten; Harper, Dustin; Lohmann, Gerrit; Pälike, Heiko; Zachos, James C.

2017-04-01

The role of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) as a key player for abrupt climatic changes (e.g. Heinrich Stadials) during the Pleistocene is relatively well constrained. However, the timing of the onset of a „modern" North Atlantic Deepwater (NADW) formation are still debated: Recent estimates range from the middle Miocene to the Early Eocene [Davies et al., 2001, Stoker et al., 2005, Hohbein et al., 2012] and are mainly based on the seismic interpretation contourite drifts. Another understudied aspect of the AMOC is its behavior during climatic variations on orbital time scales and under different climatic boundary conditions (icehouse vs hothouse). IODP Expedition 342 drilled carbonate-rich sequences from sediment drifts offshore Newfoundland that cover the middle Eocene with high sedimentation rates ( 3 cm/ kyr). We present a 2 Myr long stable carbon and oxygen isotope record of benthic foraminifera nuttalides truempyi spanning magnetochron C20r in unprecedented resolution (< 2 kyr/sample), sufficient to resolve dominant Milankovic frequencies. Data from Site U1410 (3400m water depth) indicate an active overturning in the North Atlantic during the middle Eocene, sensitively responding to variations in Earth's axial tilt (obliquity). Experiments in a GCM (ECHAM5 - MPIOM, OASIS 3 coupled) indicate that temperatures in the Norwegian and Labrador Sea could have allowed for sea ice during winter in a minimal obliquity setting (22.1°), whereas temperatures are too high to allow sea ice formation under maximum obliquity (24.5°) winter conditions depending on Eocene boundary conditions (atmospheric CO2 concentration). We hypothesize that the combined effect of low temperatures in the sinking areas, an increased latitudinal SST gradient seasonal, and the potential formation of sea ice during obliquity minima results in an initial shallow NADW formation during the middle Eocene. This hypothesis is in accordance with the astronomical imprint observed in the data from IODP Site U1410. Davies, R., Cartwright, J., Pike, J., and Line, C., 2001, Early Oligocene initiation of North Atlantic deep water formation: Nature, v. 410, no. 6831, p. 917-920. Stoker, M. S., Praeg, D., Hjelstuen, B. O., Laberg, J. S., Nielsen, T., and Shannon, P. M., 2005, Neogene stratigraphy and the sedimentary and oceanographic development of the NW European Atlantic margin: Marine and Petroleum Geology, v. 22, no. 9, p. 977-1005. Hohbein, M. W., Sexton, P. F., and Cartwright, J. A., 2012, Onset of North Atlantic Deep Water production coincident with inception of the Cenozoic global cooling trend: Geology, v. 40, no. 3, p. 255-258.

Forest-stressing climate factors on the US West Coast as simulated by CMIP5

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rupp, D. E.; Buotte, P.; Hicke, J. A.; Law, B. E.; Mote, P.; Sharp, D.; Zhenlin, Y.

2013-12-01

The rate of forest mortality has increased significantly in western North America since the 1970s. Causes include insect attacks, fire, and soil water deficit, all of which are interdependent. We first identify climate factors that stress forests by reducing photosynthesis and hydraulic conductance, and by promoting bark beetle infestation and wildfire. Examples of such factors may be two consecutive years of extreme summer precipitation deficit, or prolonged vapor pressure deficit exceeding some threshold. Second, we quantify the frequency and magnitude of these climate factors in 20th and 21st century climates, as simulated by global climate models (GCMs) in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5), of Washington, Oregon, and California in the western US. Both ';raw' (i.e., original spatial resolution) and statistically downscaled simulations are considered, the latter generated using the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) method. CMIP5 models that most faithfully reproduce the observed historical statistics of these climate factors are identified. Furthermore, significant changes in the statistics between the 20th and 21st centuries are reported. A subsequent task will be to use a selected subset of MACA-downscaled CMIP5 simulations to force the Community Land Model, version 4.5 (CLM 4.5). CLM 4.5 will be modified to better simulate forest mortality and to couple CLM with an economic model. The ultimate goal of this study is to understand the interactions and the feedbacks by which the market and the forest ecosystem influence each other.

Insights on the energy-water nexus through modeling of the integrated water cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leung, L. R.; Li, H. Y.; Zhang, X.; Wan, W.; Voisin, N.; Leng, G.

2016-12-01

For sustainable energy planning, understanding the impacts of climate change, land use change, and water management is essential as they all exert notable controls on streamflow and stream temperature that influence energy production. An integrated water model representing river processes, irrigation water use and water management has been developed and coupled to a land surface model to investigate the energy-water nexus. Simulations driven by two climate change projections with the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 emissions scenarios, with and without water management, are analyzed to evaluate the individual and combined effects of climate change and water management on streamflow and stream temperature. The simulations revealed important impacts of climate change and water management on both floods and droughts. The simulations also revealed the dynamics of competition between changes in water demand and water availability in the climate mitigation (RCP 4.5) and business as usual (RCP 8.5) scenarios that influence streamflow and stream temperature, with important consequences to energy production. The integrated water model is being implemented to the Accelerated Climate Modeling for Energy (ACME) to enable investigation of the energy-water nexus in the fully coupled Earth system.

Role of Internal Variability in Surface Temperature and Precipitation Change Uncertainties over India.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Achutarao, K. M.; Singh, R.

2017-12-01

There are various sources of uncertainty in model projections of future climate change. These include differences in the formulation of climate models, internal variability, and differences in scenarios. Internal variability in a climate system represents the unforced change due to the chaotic nature of the climate system and is considered irreducible (Deser et al., 2012). Internal variability becomes important at regional scales where it can dominate forced changes. Therefore it needs to be carefully assessed in future projections. In this study we segregate the role of internal variability in the future temperature and precipitation projections over the Indian region. We make use of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project - phase 5 (CMIP5; Taylor et al., 2012) database containing climate model simulations carried out by various modeling centers around the world. While the CMIP5 experimental protocol recommended producing numerous ensemble members, only a handful of the modeling groups provided multiple realizations. Having a small number of realizations is a limitation in producing a quantification of internal variability. We therefore exploit the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM-LE; Kay et al., 2014) dataset which contains a 40 member ensemble of a single model- CESM1 (CAM5) to explore the role of internal variability in Future Projections. Surface air temperature and precipitation change projections over regional and sub-regional scale are analyzed under the IPCC emission scenario (RCP8.5) for different seasons and homogeneous climatic zones over India. We analyze the spread in projections due to internal variability in the CESM-LE and CMIP5 datasets over these regions.

Projecting Future Water Levels of the Laurentian Great Lakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bennington, V.; Notaro, M.; Holman, K.

2013-12-01

The Laurentian Great Lakes are the largest freshwater system on Earth, containing 84% of North America's freshwater. The lakes are a valuable economic and recreational resource, valued at over 62 billion in annual wages and supporting a 7 billion fishery. Shipping, recreation, and coastal property values are significantly impacted by water level variability, with large economic consequences. Great Lakes water levels fluctuate both seasonally and long-term, responding to natural and anthropogenic climate changes. Due to the integrated nature of water levels, a prolonged small change in any one of the net basin supply components: over-lake precipitation, watershed runoff, or evaporation from the lake surface, may result in important trends in water levels. We utilize the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics's Regional Climate Model Version 4.5.6 to dynamically downscale three global global climate models that represent a spread of potential future climate change for the region to determine whether the climate models suggest a robust response of the Laurentian Great Lakes to anthropogenic climate change. The Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate Version 5 (MIROC5), the National Centre for Meteorological Research Earth system model (CNRM-CM5), and the Community Climate System Model Version 4 (CCSM4) project different regional temperature increases and precipitation change over the next century and are used as lateral boundary conditions. We simulate the historical (1980-2000) and late-century periods (2080-2100). Upon model evaluation we will present dynamically downscaled projections of net basin supply changes for each of the Laurentian Great Lakes.

Quantifying PM2.5-Meteorology Sensitivities in a Global Climate Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Westervelt, D. M.; Horowitz, L. W.; Naik, V.; Tai, A. P. K.; Fiore, A. M.; Mauzerall, D. L.

2016-01-01

Climate change can influence fine particulate matter concentrations (PM2.5) through changes in air pollution meteorology. Knowledge of the extent to which climate change can exacerbate or alleviate air pollution in the future is needed for robust climate and air pollution policy decision-making. To examine the influence of climate on PM2.5, we use the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Coupled Model version 3 (GFDL CM3), a fully-coupled chemistry-climate model, combined with future emissions and concentrations provided by the four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). For each of the RCPs, we conduct future simulations in which emissions of aerosols and their precursors are held at 2005 levels while other climate forcing agents evolve in time, such that only climate (and thus meteorology) can influence PM2.5 surface concentrations. We find a small increase in global, annual mean PM2.5 of about 0.21 micro-g/cu m3 (5%) for RCP8.5, a scenario with maximum warming. Changes in global mean PM2.5 are at a maximum in the fall and are mainly controlled by sulfate followed by organic aerosol with minimal influence of black carbon. RCP2.6 is the only scenario that projects a decrease in global PM2.5 with future climate changes, albeit only by -0.06 micro-g/cu m (1.5%) by the end of the 21st century. Regional and local changes in PM2.5 are larger, reaching upwards of 2 micro-g/cu m for polluted (eastern China) and dusty (western Africa) locations on an annually averaged basis in RCP8.5. Using multiple linear regression, we find that future PM2.5 concentrations are most sensitive to local temperature, followed by surface wind and precipitation. PM2.5 concentrations are robustly positively associated with temperature, while negatively related with precipitation and wind speed. Present-day (2006-2015) modeled sensitivities of PM2.5 to meteorological variables are evaluated against observations and found to agree reasonably well with observed sensitivities (within 10e50% over the eastern United States for several variables), although the modeled PM2.5 is less sensitive to precipitation than in the observations due to weaker convective scavenging. We conclude that the hypothesized "climate penalty" of future increases in PM2.5 is relatively minor on a global scale compared to the influence of emissions on PM2.5 concentrations.

Carbon-climate-human interactions in an integrated human-Earth system model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Calvin, K. V.; Bond-Lamberty, B. P.; Jones, A. D.; Shi, X.

2016-12-01

The C4MIP and CMIP5 results highlighted large uncertainties in climate projections, driven to a large extent by limited understanding of the interactions between terrestrial carbon-cycle and climate feedbacks, and their associated uncertainties. These feedbacks are dominated by uncertainties in soil processes, disturbance dynamics, ecosystem response to climate change, and agricultural productivity, and land-use change. This research addresses three questions: (1) how do terrestrial feedbacks vary across different levels of climate change, (2) what is the relative contribution of CO2 fertilization and climate change, and (3) how robust are the results across different models and methods? We used a coupled modeling framework that integrates an Integrated Assessment Model (modeling economic and energy activity) with an Earth System Model (modeling the natural earth system) to examine how business-as-usual (RCP 8.5) climate change will affect ecosystem productivity, cropland extent, and other aspects of the human-Earth system. We find that higher levels of radiative forcing result in higher productivity growth, that increases in CO2 concentrations are the dominant contributors to that growth, and that our productivity increases fall in the middle of the range when compared to other CMIP5 models and the AgMIP models. These results emphasize the importance of examining both the anthropogenic and natural components of the earth system, and their long-term interactive feedbacks.

Hydrological modeling as an evaluation tool of EURO-CORDEX climate projections and bias correction methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hakala, Kirsti; Addor, Nans; Seibert, Jan

2017-04-01

Streamflow stemming from Switzerland's mountainous landscape will be influenced by climate change, which will pose significant challenges to the water management and policy sector. In climate change impact research, the determination of future streamflow is impeded by different sources of uncertainty, which propagate through the model chain. In this research, we explicitly considered the following sources of uncertainty: (1) climate models, (2) downscaling of the climate projections to the catchment scale, (3) bias correction method and (4) parameterization of the hydrological model. We utilize climate projections at the 0.11 degree 12.5 km resolution from the EURO-CORDEX project, which are the most recent climate projections for the European domain. EURO-CORDEX is comprised of regional climate model (RCM) simulations, which have been downscaled from global climate models (GCMs) from the CMIP5 archive, using both dynamical and statistical techniques. Uncertainties are explored by applying a modeling chain involving 14 GCM-RCMs to ten Swiss catchments. We utilize the rainfall-runoff model HBV Light, which has been widely used in operational hydrological forecasting. The Lindström measure, a combination of model efficiency and volume error, was used as an objective function to calibrate HBV Light. Ten best sets of parameters are then achieved by calibrating using the genetic algorithm and Powell optimization (GAP) method. The GAP optimization method is based on the evolution of parameter sets, which works by selecting and recombining high performing parameter sets with each other. Once HBV is calibrated, we then perform a quantitative comparison of the influence of biases inherited from climate model simulations to the biases stemming from the hydrological model. The evaluation is conducted over two time periods: i) 1980-2009 to characterize the simulation realism under the current climate and ii) 2070-2099 to identify the magnitude of the projected change of streamflow under the climate scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. We utilize two techniques for correcting biases in the climate model output: quantile mapping and a new method, frequency bias correction. The FBC method matches the frequencies between observed and GCM-RCM data. In this way, it can be used to correct for all time scales, which is a known limitation of quantile mapping. A novel approach for the evaluation of the climate simulations and bias correction methods was then applied. Streamflow can be thought of as the "great integrator" of uncertainties. The ability, or the lack thereof, to correctly simulate streamflow is a way to assess the realism of the bias-corrected climate simulations. Long-term monthly mean as well as high and low flow metrics are used to evaluate the realism of the simulations under current climate and to gauge the impacts of climate change on streamflow. Preliminary results show that under present climate, calibration of the hydrological model comprises of a much smaller band of uncertainty in the modeling chain as compared to the bias correction of the GCM-RCMs. Therefore, for future time periods, we expect the bias correction of climate model data to have a greater influence on projected changes in streamflow than the calibration of the hydrological model.

What Drives Hydrogen Isotopic Variability Recorded by Biomarkers in Sediments of Lake Karakul, Pamir?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aichner, B.; Mischke, S.; Pausata, F. S. R.; Werner, M.; Zhang, Q.; Heinecke, L.; Feakins, S. J.; Sachse, D.; Mahmoudov, Z.; Rajabov, I.

2017-12-01

Central Asia is a climate sensitive region located at the boundary of large scale atmospheric circulation systems. To examine glacial to interglacial hydrological changes in the region, we analysed the hydrogen isotopic composition (δD values) of n-alkanes in a 30-ka record from Lake Karakul, eastern Pamir (altitude: 3,915m, MAT: -3.9 °C, MAP: 82 mm). δD values of both aquatic and terrestrial compounds showed distinct trends throughout the studied time interval, with generally higher values during the glacial and lower values during the Holocene, and variability of up to 60‰. In particular shifts towards higher δD values were observed for aquatic biomarkers at ca. 30, 27, and 15 ka BP. Temperature and precipitation effects alone cannot explain the higher δD values during the glacial and the large isotopic amplitudes. To explain these observations we conducted a set of experiments using atmospheric models with embedded isotope modules (CAM3iso- and ECHAM5-wiso). We assume that terrestrial n-alkanes mainly record the isotopic signature of summer precipitation within the lower elevated parts of the Karakul Basin. Based on the model output we hypothesize that shifts between local and more distant vapour sources are the reason behind the trends within isotopic data. Data derived from aquatic biomarkers are more difficult to explain due to multiple influencing factors on δD of the lake water. Assuming that the lake water integrates an annual isotopic signal from the whole lake catchment, we suggest that a change in precipitation seasonality drives the large variability of hydrogen isotopic values. This is in agreement with the models, which suggest reduced winter (more negative δD) and slightly higher summer precipitation (more positive δD) during the glacial compared to the Holocene. Consequently, a net-increase of isotopically enriched inflow into the lake could explain the three distinct shifts towards higher δD values. Expansion of terrestrial vegetation, indicated by increasing biomarker concentrations, during these periods is another indicator for wetter summers in an arid environment. We conclude that δD values of terrestrial compounds reflect major shifts of vapour sources which are driven by insolation, while aquatic biomarkers are additionally influenced by changes of precipitation seasonality.

Evaluation of CMIP5 Ability to Reproduce 20th Century Regional Trends in Surface Air Temperature and Precipitation over CONUS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, J.; Waliser, D. E.; Lee, H.; Loikith, P. C.; Kunkel, K.

2017-12-01

Monitoring temporal changes in key climate variables, such as surface air temperature and precipitation, is an integral part of the ongoing efforts of the United States National Climate Assessment (NCA). Climate models participating in CMIP5 provide future trends for four different emissions scenarios. In order to have confidence in the future projections of surface air temperature and precipitation, it is crucial to evaluate the ability of CMIP5 models to reproduce observed trends for three different time periods (1895-1939, 1940-1979, and 1980-2005). Towards this goal, trends in surface air temperature and precipitation obtained from the NOAA nClimGrid 5 km gridded station observation-based product are compared during all three time periods to the 206 CMIP5 historical simulations from 48 unique GCMs and their multi-model ensemble (MME) for NCA-defined climate regions during summer (JJA) and winter (DJF). This evaluation quantitatively examines the biases of simulated trends of the spatially averaged temperature and precipitation in the NCA climate regions. The CMIP5 MME reproduces historical surface air temperature trends for JJA for all time period and all regions, except the Northern Great Plains from 1895-1939 and Southeast during 1980-2005. Likewise, for DJF, the MME reproduces historical surface air temperature trends across all time periods over all regions except the Southeast from 1895-1939 and the Midwest during 1940-1979. The Regional Climate Model Evaluation System (RCMES), an analysis tool which supports the NCA by providing access to data and tools for regional climate model validation, facilitates the comparisons between the models and observation. The RCMES Toolkit is designed to assist in the analysis of climate variables and the procedure of the evaluation of climate projection models to support the decision-making processes. This tool is used in conjunction with the above analysis and results will be presented to demonstrate its capability to access observation and model datasets, calculate evaluation metrics, and visualize the results. Several other examples of the RCMES capabilities can be found at https://rcmes.jpl.nasa.gov.

Characterizing and Addressing the Need for Statistical Adjustment of Global Climate Model Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

White, K. D.; Baker, B.; Mueller, C.; Villarini, G.; Foley, P.; Friedman, D.

2017-12-01

As part of its mission to research and measure the effects of the changing climate, the U. S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) regularly uses the World Climate Research Programme's Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) multi-model dataset. However, these data are generated at a global level and are not fine-tuned for specific watersheds. This often causes CMIP5 output to vary from locally observed patterns in the climate. Several downscaling methods have been developed to increase the resolution of the CMIP5 data and decrease systemic differences to support decision-makers as they evaluate results at the watershed scale. Evaluating preliminary comparisons of observed and projected flow frequency curves over the US revealed a simple framework for water resources decision makers to plan and design water resources management measures under changing conditions using standard tools. Using this framework as a basis, USACE has begun to explore to use of statistical adjustment to alter global climate model data to better match the locally observed patterns while preserving the general structure and behavior of the model data. When paired with careful measurement and hypothesis testing, statistical adjustment can be particularly effective at navigating the compromise between the locally observed patterns and the global climate model structures for decision makers.

Comparison of three ice cloud optical schemes in climate simulations with community atmospheric model version 5

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Wenjie; Peng, Yiran; Wang, Bin; Yi, Bingqi; Lin, Yanluan; Li, Jiangnan

2018-05-01

A newly implemented Baum-Yang scheme for simulating ice cloud optical properties is compared with existing schemes (Mitchell and Fu schemes) in a standalone radiative transfer model and in the global climate model (GCM) Community Atmospheric Model Version 5 (CAM5). This study systematically analyzes the effect of different ice cloud optical schemes on global radiation and climate by a series of simulations with a simplified standalone radiative transfer model, atmospheric GCM CAM5, and a comprehensive coupled climate model. Results from the standalone radiative model show that Baum-Yang scheme yields generally weaker effects of ice cloud on temperature profiles both in shortwave and longwave spectrum. CAM5 simulations indicate that Baum-Yang scheme in place of Mitchell/Fu scheme tends to cool the upper atmosphere and strengthen the thermodynamic instability in low- and mid-latitudes, which could intensify the Hadley circulation and dehydrate the subtropics. When CAM5 is coupled with a slab ocean model to include simplified air-sea interaction, reduced downward longwave flux to surface in Baum-Yang scheme mitigates ice-albedo feedback in the Arctic as well as water vapor and cloud feedbacks in low- and mid-latitudes, resulting in an overall temperature decrease by 3.0/1.4 °C globally compared with Mitchell/Fu schemes. Radiative effect and climate feedback of the three ice cloud optical schemes documented in this study can be referred for future improvements on ice cloud simulation in CAM5.

Potential Effects of Climate Change on the Distribution of Cold-Tolerant Evergreen Broadleaved Woody Plants in the Korean Peninsula.

PubMed

Koo, Kyung Ah; Kong, Woo-Seok; Nibbelink, Nathan P; Hopkinson, Charles S; Lee, Joon Ho

2015-01-01

Climate change has caused shifts in species' ranges and extinctions of high-latitude and altitude species. Most cold-tolerant evergreen broadleaved woody plants (shortened to cold-evergreens below) are rare species occurring in a few sites in the alpine and subalpine zones in the Korean Peninsula. The aim of this research is to 1) identify climate factors controlling the range of cold-evergreens in the Korean Peninsula; and 2) predict the climate change effects on the range of cold-evergreens. We used multimodel inference based on combinations of climate variables to develop distribution models of cold-evergreens at a physiognomic-level. Presence/absence data of 12 species at 204 sites and 6 climatic factors, selected from among 23 candidate variables, were used for modeling. Model uncertainty was estimated by mapping a total variance calculated by adding the weighted average of within-model variation to the between-model variation. The range of cold-evergreens and model performance were validated by true skill statistics, the receiver operating characteristic curve and the kappa statistic. Climate change effects on the cold-evergreens were predicted according to the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. Multimodel inference approach excellently projected the spatial distribution of cold-evergreens (AUC = 0.95, kappa = 0.62 and TSS = 0.77). Temperature was a dominant factor in model-average estimates, while precipitation was minor. The climatic suitability increased from the southwest, lowland areas, to the northeast, high mountains. The range of cold-evergreens declined under climate change. Mountain-tops in the south and most of the area in the north remained suitable in 2050 and 2070 under the RCP 4.5 projection and 2050 under the RCP 8.5 projection. Only high-elevations in the northeastern Peninsula remained suitable under the RCP 8.5 projection. A northward and upper-elevational range shift indicates change in species composition at the alpine and subalpine ecosystems in the Korean Peninsula.

Potential Effects of Climate Change on the Distribution of Cold-Tolerant Evergreen Broadleaved Woody Plants in the Korean Peninsula

PubMed Central

Koo, Kyung Ah; Kong, Woo-Seok; Nibbelink, Nathan P.; Hopkinson, Charles S.; Lee, Joon Ho

2015-01-01

Climate change has caused shifts in species’ ranges and extinctions of high-latitude and altitude species. Most cold-tolerant evergreen broadleaved woody plants (shortened to cold-evergreens below) are rare species occurring in a few sites in the alpine and subalpine zones in the Korean Peninsula. The aim of this research is to 1) identify climate factors controlling the range of cold-evergreens in the Korean Peninsula; and 2) predict the climate change effects on the range of cold-evergreens. We used multimodel inference based on combinations of climate variables to develop distribution models of cold-evergreens at a physiognomic-level. Presence/absence data of 12 species at 204 sites and 6 climatic factors, selected from among 23 candidate variables, were used for modeling. Model uncertainty was estimated by mapping a total variance calculated by adding the weighted average of within-model variation to the between-model variation. The range of cold-evergreens and model performance were validated by true skill statistics, the receiver operating characteristic curve and the kappa statistic. Climate change effects on the cold-evergreens were predicted according to the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. Multimodel inference approach excellently projected the spatial distribution of cold-evergreens (AUC = 0.95, kappa = 0.62 and TSS = 0.77). Temperature was a dominant factor in model-average estimates, while precipitation was minor. The climatic suitability increased from the southwest, lowland areas, to the northeast, high mountains. The range of cold-evergreens declined under climate change. Mountain-tops in the south and most of the area in the north remained suitable in 2050 and 2070 under the RCP 4.5 projection and 2050 under the RCP 8.5 projection. Only high-elevations in the northeastern Peninsula remained suitable under the RCP 8.5 projection. A northward and upper-elevational range shift indicates change in species composition at the alpine and subalpine ecosystems in the Korean Peninsula. PMID:26262755

Using statistical models to explore ensemble uncertainty in climate impact studies: the example of air pollution in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lemaire, Vincent E. P.; Colette, Augustin; Menut, Laurent

2016-03-01

Because of its sensitivity to unfavorable weather patterns, air pollution is sensitive to climate change so that, in the future, a climate penalty could jeopardize the expected efficiency of air pollution mitigation measures. A common method to assess the impact of climate on air quality consists in implementing chemistry-transport models forced by climate projections. However, the computing cost of such methods requires optimizing ensemble exploration techniques. By using a training data set from a deterministic projection of climate and air quality over Europe, we identified the main meteorological drivers of air quality for eight regions in Europe and developed statistical models that could be used to predict air pollutant concentrations. The evolution of the key climate variables driving either particulate or gaseous pollution allows selecting the members of the EuroCordex ensemble of regional climate projections that should be used in priority for future air quality projections (CanESM2/RCA4; CNRM-CM5-LR/RCA4 and CSIRO-Mk3-6-0/RCA4 and MPI-ESM-LR/CCLM following the EuroCordex terminology). After having tested the validity of the statistical model in predictive mode, we can provide ranges of uncertainty attributed to the spread of the regional climate projection ensemble by the end of the century (2071-2100) for the RCP8.5. In the three regions where the statistical model of the impact of climate change on PM2.5 offers satisfactory performances, we find a climate benefit (a decrease of PM2.5 concentrations under future climate) of -1.08 (±0.21), -1.03 (±0.32), -0.83 (±0.14) µg m-3, for respectively Eastern Europe, Mid-Europe and Northern Italy. In the British-Irish Isles, Scandinavia, France, the Iberian Peninsula and the Mediterranean, the statistical model is not considered skillful enough to draw any conclusion for PM2.5. In Eastern Europe, France, the Iberian Peninsula, Mid-Europe and Northern Italy, the statistical model of the impact of climate change on ozone was considered satisfactory and it confirms the climate penalty bearing upon ozone of 10.51 (±3.06), 11.70 (±3.63), 11.53 (±1.55), 9.86 (±4.41), 4.82 (±1.79) µg m-3, respectively. In the British-Irish Isles, Scandinavia and the Mediterranean, the skill of the statistical model was not considered robust enough to draw any conclusion for ozone pollution.

Built Expansion and Global Climate Change Drive Projected Urban Heat: Relative Magnitudes, Interactions, and Mitigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krayenhoff, E. S.; Georgescu, M.; Moustaoui, M.

2016-12-01

Surface climates are projected to warm due to global climate change over the course of the 21st century, and demographic projections suggest urban areas in the United States will continue to expand and develop, with associated local climate outcomes. Interactions between these two drivers of urban heat have not been robustly quantified to date. Here, simulations with the Weather Research and Forecasting model (coupled to a Single-Layer Urban Canopy Model) are performed at 20 km resolution over the continental U.S. for two 10-year periods: contemporary (2000-2009) and end-of-century (2090-2099). Present and end of century urban land use are derived from the Environmental Protection Agency's Integrated Climate and Land-Use Scenarios. Modelled effects on urban climates are evaluated regionally. Sensitivity to climate projection (Community Climate System Model 4.0, RCP 4.5 vs. RCP 8.5) and associated urban development scenarios are assessed. Effects on near-surface urban air temperature of RCP8.5 climate change are greater than those attributable to the corresponding urban development in many regions. Interaction effects vary by region, and while of lesser magnitude, are not negligible. Moreover, urban development and its interactions with RCP8.5 climate change modify the distribution of convective precipitation over the eastern US. Interaction effects result from the different meteorological effects of urban areas under current and future climate. Finally, the potential for design implementations such as green roofs and high albedo roofs to offset the projected warming is considered. Impacts of these implementations on precipitation are also assessed.

Microbial models with data-driven parameters predict stronger soil carbon responses to climate change.

PubMed

Hararuk, Oleksandra; Smith, Matthew J; Luo, Yiqi

2015-06-01

Long-term carbon (C) cycle feedbacks to climate depend on the future dynamics of soil organic carbon (SOC). Current models show low predictive accuracy at simulating contemporary SOC pools, which can be improved through parameter estimation. However, major uncertainty remains in global soil responses to climate change, particularly uncertainty in how the activity of soil microbial communities will respond. To date, the role of microbes in SOC dynamics has been implicitly described by decay rate constants in most conventional global carbon cycle models. Explicitly including microbial biomass dynamics into C cycle model formulations has shown potential to improve model predictive performance when assessed against global SOC databases. This study aimed to data-constrained parameters of two soil microbial models, evaluate the improvements in performance of those calibrated models in predicting contemporary carbon stocks, and compare the SOC responses to climate change and their uncertainties between microbial and conventional models. Microbial models with calibrated parameters explained 51% of variability in the observed total SOC, whereas a calibrated conventional model explained 41%. The microbial models, when forced with climate and soil carbon input predictions from the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), produced stronger soil C responses to 95 years of climate change than any of the 11 CMIP5 models. The calibrated microbial models predicted between 8% (2-pool model) and 11% (4-pool model) soil C losses compared with CMIP5 model projections which ranged from a 7% loss to a 22.6% gain. Lastly, we observed unrealistic oscillatory SOC dynamics in the 2-pool microbial model. The 4-pool model also produced oscillations, but they were less prominent and could be avoided, depending on the parameter values. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Non-stationary Return Levels of CMIP5 Multi-model Temperature Extremes

DOE PAGES

Cheng, L.; Phillips, T. J.; AghaKouchak, A.

2015-05-01

The objective of this study is to evaluate to what extent the CMIP5 climate model simulations of the climate of the twentieth century can represent observed warm monthly temperature extremes under a changing environment. The biases and spatial patterns of 2-, 10-, 25-, 50- and 100-year return levels of the annual maxima of monthly mean temperature (hereafter, annual temperature maxima) from CMIP5 simulations are compared with those of Climatic Research Unit (CRU) observational data considered under a non-stationary assumption. The results show that CMIP5 climate models collectively underestimate the mean annual maxima over arid and semi-arid regions that are mostmore » subject to severe heat waves and droughts. Furthermore, the results indicate that most climate models tend to underestimate the historical annual temperature maxima over the United States and Greenland, while generally disagreeing in their simulations over cold regions. Return level analysis shows that with respect to the spatial patterns of the annual temperature maxima, there are good agreements between the CRU observations and most CMIP5 simulations. However, the magnitudes of the simulated annual temperature maxima differ substantially across individual models. Discrepancies are generally larger over higher latitudes and cold regions.« less

Paleoclimate diagnostics: consistent large-scale temperature responses in warm and cold climates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Izumi, Kenji; Bartlein, Patrick; Harrison, Sandy

2015-04-01

The CMIP5 model simulations of the large-scale temperature responses to increased raditative forcing include enhanced land-ocean contrast, stronger response at higher latitudes than in the tropics, and differential responses in warm and cool season climates to uniform forcing. Here we show that these patterns are also characteristic of CMIP5 model simulations of past climates. The differences in the responses over land as opposed to over the ocean, between high and low latitudes, and between summer and winter are remarkably consistent (proportional and nearly linear) across simulations of both cold and warm climates. Similar patterns also appear in historical observations and paleoclimatic reconstructions, implying that such responses are characteristic features of the climate system and not simple model artifacts, thereby increasing our confidence in the ability of climate models to correctly simulate different climatic states. We also show the possibility that a small set of common mechanisms control these large-scale responses of the climate system across multiple states.

The Swedish Regional Climate Modelling Programme, SWECLIM: a review.

PubMed

Rummukainen, Markku; Bergström, Sten; Persson, Gunn; Rodhe, Johan; Tjernström, Michael

2004-06-01

The Swedish Regional Climate Modelling Programme, SWECLIM, was a 6.5-year national research network for regional climate modeling, regional climate change projections and hydrological impact assessment and information to a wide range of stakeholders. Most of the program activities focussed on the regional climate system of Northern Europe. This led to the establishment of an advanced, coupled atmosphere-ocean-hydrology regional climate model system, a suite of regional climate change projections and progress on relevant data and process studies. These were, in turn, used for information and educational purposes, as a starting point for impact analyses on different societal sectors and provided contributions also to international climate research.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

LaRow, Timothy

The SSTs used in our study come from the Community Climate System Model version 4 (CCSM4) (Gent et al 2011) and from the Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis (CanESM2) (Chylek et al20ll) climate models from the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) (Taylor et al2012). We've examined the tropical cyclones using both the historical simulation that employs volcanic and aerosol forcing as well as the representative concentration pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5). In addition, we've compared the present day North Atlantic tropical cyclone metrics from a previous study (LaRow, 2013) to these climate change experiments. The experimental setup is shownmore » in Table 1. We considered the CMIP5 experiment number '3.2 historical' (Taylor et al,201l), which provides simulations of the recent past (1850-2005). The second set of CMIP5 SSTs is the RCp4.5 experiment where the radiative forcing stabilizes at 45W m-2 after 2100 (experiment number 4.1 in Taylor etal2}ll).« less

Quasi-decadal Oscillation in the CMIP5 and CMIP3 Climate Model Simulations: California Case

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, J.; Yin, H.; Reyes, E.; Chung, F. I.

2014-12-01

The ongoing three drought years in California are reminding us of two other historical long drought periods: 1987-1992 and 1928-1934. This kind of interannual variability is corresponding to the dominating 7-15 yr quasi-decadal oscillation in precipitation and streamflow in California. When using global climate model projections to assess the climate change impact on water resources planning in California, it is natural to ask if global climate models are able to reproduce the observed interannual variability like 7-15 yr quasi-decadal oscillation. Further spectral analysis to tree ring retrieved precipitation and historical precipitation record proves the existence of 7-15 yr quasi-decadal oscillation in California. But while implementing spectral analysis to all the CMIP5 and CMIP3 global climate model historical simulations using wavelet analysis approach, it was found that only two models in CMIP3 , CGCM 2.3.2a of MRI and NCAP PCM1.0, and only two models in CMIP5, MIROC5 and CESM1-WACCM, have statistically significant 7-15 yr quasi-decadal oscillations in California. More interesting, the existence of 7-15 yr quasi-decadal oscillation in the global climate model simulation is also sensitive to initial conditions. 12-13 yr quasi-decadal oscillation occurs in one ensemble run of CGCM 2.3.2a of MRI but does not exist in the other four ensemble runs.

Using Paleo-climate Comparisons to Constrain Future Projections in CMIP5

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schmidt, G. A.; Annan, J D.; Bartlein, P. J.; Cook, B. I.; Guilyardi, E.; Hargreaves, J. C.; Harrison, S. P.; Kageyama, M.; LeGrande, A. N..; Konecky, B.;

Evaluation of a new satellite-based precipitation dataset for climate studies in the Xiang River basin, Southern China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Q.; Xu, Y. P.; Hsu, K. L.

2017-12-01

A new satellite-based precipitation dataset, Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks-Climate Data Record (PERSIANN-CDR) with long-term time series dating back to 1983 can be one valuable dataset for climate studies. This study investigates the feasibility of using PERSIANN-CDR as a reference dataset for climate studies. Sixteen CMIP5 models are evaluated over the Xiang River basin, southern China, by comparing their performance on precipitation projection and streamflow simulation, particularly on extreme precipitation and streamflow events. The results show PERSIANN-CDR is a valuable dataset for climate studies, even on extreme precipitation events. The precipitation estimates and their extreme events from CMIP5 models are improved significantly compared with rain gauge observations after bias-correction by the PERSIANN-CDR precipitation estimates. Given streamflows simulated with raw and bias-corrected precipitation estimates from 16 CMIP5 models, 10 out of 16 are improved after bias-correction. The impact of bias-correction on extreme events for streamflow simulations are unstable, with eight out of 16 models can be clearly claimed they are improved after the bias-correction. Concerning the performance of raw CMIP5 models on precipitation, IPSL-CM5A-MR excels the other CMIP5 models, while MRI-CGCM3 outperforms on extreme events with its better performance on six extreme precipitation metrics. Case studies also show that raw CCSM4, CESM1-CAM5, and MRI-CGCM3 outperform other models on streamflow simulation, while MIROC5-ESM-CHEM, MIROC5-ESM and IPSL-CM5A-MR behaves better than the other models after bias-correction.

Assessing Ozone-Related Health Impacts under a Changing Climate

PubMed Central

Knowlton, Kim; Rosenthal, Joyce E.; Hogrefe, Christian; Lynn, Barry; Gaffin, Stuart; Goldberg, Richard; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Civerolo, Kevin; Ku, Jia-Yeong; Kinney, Patrick L.

2004-01-01

Climate change may increase the frequency and intensity of ozone episodes in future summers in the United States. However, only recently have models become available that can assess the impact of climate change on O3 concentrations and health effects at regional and local scales that are relevant to adaptive planning. We developed and applied an integrated modeling framework to assess potential O3-related health impacts in future decades under a changing climate. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration–Goddard Institute for Space Studies global climate model at 4° × 5° resolution was linked to the Penn State/National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model 5 and the Community Multiscale Air Quality atmospheric chemistry model at 36 km horizontal grid resolution to simulate hourly regional meteorology and O3 in five summers of the 2050s decade across the 31-county New York metropolitan region. We assessed changes in O3-related impacts on summer mortality resulting from climate change alone and with climate change superimposed on changes in O3 precursor emissions and population growth. Considering climate change alone, there was a median 4.5% increase in O3-related acute mortality across the 31 counties. Incorporating O3 precursor emission increases along with climate change yielded similar results. When population growth was factored into the projections, absolute impacts increased substantially. Counties with the highest percent increases in projected O3 mortality spread beyond the urban core into less densely populated suburban counties. This modeling framework provides a potentially useful new tool for assessing the health risks of climate change. PMID:15531442

Impacts of climate change on large forest wildfire of Washington and Oregon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Z.; Davis, R. J.; Yost, A.; Cohen, W. B.

2014-12-01

Climate changes in the 21st century were projected to have major impact on wildfire. The state of Washington and Oregon contains a tightly coupled forest ecosystem and fire regime. The objective of this study was to examine the impact of future climate changes for large wildfire in the two states. MAXENT algorithm was used to develop a large forest wildfire suitability model using historical fire for the 1971-2000 time period and validated for 1981-2010 time period . Input variables include climate (e.g. July-August temperature) and topographic variables (e.g. elevation). The model test AUC of 0.77±0.1. Using the predicted versus expected curve and methods described by Hirzel and others (Hirzel et al. 2006), we reclassified the model into four classes; low suitability (0-0.36), moderate suitability 0.36-0.5), high suitability (0.5-0.75), and very high suitability (0.75-1.0). To examine the future climate change impact, climate scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, and RCP 8.5) from 33 different climate models were used to predict the large wildfire suitability from 1971-2100 using the NASA Earth Exchange (NEX) Downscaled Climate Projections (NEX-DCP30) dataset. Results from ensembles of all the climate scenarios showed that the area with high and very high suitability for large wildfire increased under all 4 climate scenarios from 1971 to 2100. However, under RCP 2.6, the area start to decline from 2080 while the other three scenarios keep increasing. On the extreme case of RCP 8.5, very high suitable area increases from less than 1% during 1971-2000 to 14.9% during 2070-2100. Details about temporal patterns for the study area and changes by ecoregions will be presented.

Characterizing climate-change impacts on the 1.5-yr flood flow in selected basins across the United States: a probabilistic approach

USGS Publications Warehouse

Walker, John F.; Hay, Lauren E.; Markstrom, Steven L.; Dettinger, Michael D.

2011-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) model was applied to basins in 14 different hydroclimatic regions to determine the sensitivity and variability of the freshwater resources of the United States in the face of current climate-change projections. Rather than attempting to choose a most likely scenario from the results of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, an ensemble of climate simulations from five models under three emissions scenarios each was used to drive the basin models. Climate-change scenarios were generated for PRMS by modifying historical precipitation and temperature inputs; mean monthly climate change was derived by calculating changes in mean climates from current to various future decades in the ensemble of climate projections. Empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) were fitted to the PRMS model output driven by the ensemble of climate projections and provided a basis for randomly (but representatively) generating realizations of hydrologic response to future climates. For each realization, the 1.5-yr flood was calculated to represent a flow important for sediment transport and channel geomorphology. The empirical probability density function (pdf) of the 1.5-yr flood was estimated using the results across the realizations for each basin. Of the 14 basins studied, 9 showed clear temporal shifts in the pdfs of the 1.5-yr flood projected into the twenty-first century. In the western United States, where the annual peak discharges are heavily influenced by snowmelt, three basins show at least a 10% increase in the 1.5-yr flood in the twenty-first century; the remaining two basins demonstrate increases in the 1.5-yr flood, but the temporal shifts in the pdfs and the percent changes are not as distinct. Four basins in the eastern Rockies/central United States show at least a 10% decrease in the 1.5-yr flood; the remaining two basins demonstrate decreases in the 1.5-yr flood, but the temporal shifts in the pdfs and the percent changes are not as distinct. Two basins in the eastern United States show at least a 10% decrease in the 1.5-yr flood; the remaining basin shows little or no change in the 1.5-yr flood.

Projected changes, climate change signal, and uncertainties in the CMIP5-based projections of ocean surface wave heights

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Xiaolan; Feng, Yang; Swail, Val R.

2016-04-01

Ocean surface waves can be major hazards in coastal and offshore activities. However, wave observations are available only at limited locations and cover only the recent few decades. Also, there exists very limited information on ocean wave behavior in response to climate change, because such information is not simulated in current global climate models. In a recent study, we used a multivariate regression model with lagged dependent variable to make statistical global projections of changes in significant wave heights (Hs) using mean sea level pressure (SLP) information from 20 CMIP5 climate models for the twenty-first century. The statistical model was calibrated and validated using the ERA-Interim reanalysis of Hs and SLP for the period 1981-2010. The results show Hs increases in the tropics (especially in the eastern tropical Pacific) and in southern hemisphere high-latitudes. Under the projected 2070-2099 climate condition of the RCP8.5 scenario, the occurrence frequency of the present-day one-in-10-year extreme wave heights is likely to double or triple in several coastal regions around the world (e.g., the Chilean coast, Gulf of Oman, Gulf of Bengal, Gulf of Mexico). More recently, we used the analysis of variance approaches to quantify the climate change signal and uncertainty in multi-model ensembles of statistical Hs simulations globally, which are based on the CMIP5 historical, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 forcing scenario simulations of SLP. In a 4-model 3-run ensemble, the 4-model common signal of climate change is found to strengthen over time, as would be expected. For the historical followed by RCP8.5 scenario, the common signal in annual mean Hs is found to be significant over 16.6%, 55.0% and 82.2% of the area by year 2005, 2050 and 2099, respectively. For the annual maximum, the signal is much weaker. The signal is strongest in the eastern tropical Pacific, featuring significant increases in both the annual mean and maximum of Hs in this region. The climate model uncertainty (i.e., inter-model variability) is significant over 99.9% of the area; its magnitude is comparable to or greater than the climate change signal by 2099 over most areas, except in the eastern tropical Pacific where the signal is much larger. In a 20-model 2-scenario single-run ensemble of statistical Hs simulations for the period 2006-2099, the model uncertainty is found to be significant globally; it is about 10 times as large as the scenario uncertainty between RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios.

Land-use change may exacerbate climate change impacts on water resources in the Ganges basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsarouchi, Gina; Buytaert, Wouter

2018-02-01

Quantifying how land-use change and climate change affect water resources is a challenge in hydrological science. This work aims to quantify how future projections of land-use and climate change might affect the hydrological response of the Upper Ganges river basin in northern India, which experiences monsoon flooding almost every year. Three different sets of modelling experiments were run using the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) land surface model (LSM) and covering the period 2000-2035: in the first set, only climate change is taken into account, and JULES was driven by the CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) outputs of 21 models, under two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), whilst land use was held fixed at the year 2010. In the second set, only land-use change is taken into account, and JULES was driven by a time series of 15 future land-use pathways, based on Landsat satellite imagery and the Markov chain simulation, whilst the meteorological boundary conditions were held fixed at years 2000-2005. In the third set, both climate change and land-use change were taken into consideration, as the CMIP5 model outputs were used in conjunction with the 15 future land-use pathways to force JULES. Variations in hydrological variables (stream flow, evapotranspiration and soil moisture) are calculated during the simulation period. Significant changes in the near-future (years 2030-2035) hydrologic fluxes arise under future land-cover and climate change scenarios pointing towards a severe increase in high extremes of flow: the multi-model mean of the 95th percentile of streamflow (Q5) is projected to increase by 63 % under the combined land-use and climate change high emissions scenario (RCP8.5). The changes in all examined hydrological components are greater in the combined land-use and climate change experiment. Results are further presented in a water resources context, aiming to address potential implications of climate change and land-use change from a water demand perspective. We conclude that future water demands in the Upper Ganges region for winter months may not be met.

A Comparison Between Gravity Wave Momentum Fluxes in Observations and Climate Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Geller, Marvin A.; Alexadner, M. Joan; Love, Peter T.; Bacmeister, Julio; Ern, Manfred; Hertzog, Albert; Manzini, Elisa; Preusse, Peter; Sato, Kaoru; Scaife, Adam A.;

Impacts of Stratospheric Black Carbon on Agriculture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xia, L.; Robock, A.; Elliott, J. W.

2017-12-01

A regional nuclear war between India and Pakistan could inject 5 Tg of soot into the stratosphere, which would absorb sunlight, decrease global surface temperature by about 1°C for 5-10 years and have major impacts on precipitation and the amount of solar radiation reaching Earth's surface. Using two global gridded crop models forced by one global climate model simulation, we investigate the impacts on agricultural productivity in various nations. The crop model in the Community Land Model 4.5 (CLM-crop4.5) and the parallel Decision Support System for Agricultural Technology (pDSSAT) in the parallel System for Integrating Impact Models and Sectors are participating in the Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison. We force these two crop models with output from the Whole Atmospheric Community Climate Model to characterize the global agricultural impact from climate changes due to a regional nuclear war. Crops in CLM-crop4.5 include maize, rice, soybean, cotton and sugarcane, and crops in pDSSAT include maize, rice, soybean and wheat. Although the two crop models require a different time frequency of weather input, we downscale the climate model output to provide consistent temperature, precipitation and solar radiation inputs. In general, CLM-crop4.5 simulates a larger global average reduction of maize and soybean production relative to pDSSAT. Global rice production shows negligible change with climate anomalies from a regional nuclear war. Cotton and sugarcane benefit from a regional nuclear war from CLM-crop4.5 simulation, and global wheat production would decrease significantly in the pDSSAT simulation. The regional crop yield responses to a regional nuclear conflict are different for each crop, and we present the changes in production on a national basis. These models do not include the crop responses to changes in ozone, ultraviolet radiation, or diffuse radiation, and we would like to encourage more modelers to improve crop models to account for those impacts. We present these results as a demonstration of using different crop models to study this problem, and we invite more global crop modeling groups to use the same climate forcing, which we would be happy to provide, to gain a better understanding of global agricultural responses under different future climate scenarios with stratospheric aerosols.

Regional Climate Change across North America in 2030 Projected from RCP6.0

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Otte, T.; Nolte, C. G.; Faluvegi, G.; Shindell, D. T.

2012-12-01

Projecting climate change scenarios to local scales is important for understanding and mitigating the effects of climate change on society and the environment. Many of the general circulation models (GCMs) that are participating in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) do not fully resolve regional-scale processes and therefore cannot capture local changes in temperature and precipitation extremes. We seek to project the GCM's large-scale climate change signal to the local scale using a regional climate model (RCM) by applying dynamical downscaling techniques. The RCM will be used to better understand the local changes of temperature and precipitation extremes that may result from a changing climate. In this research, downscaling techniques that we developed with historical data are now applied to GCM fields. Results from downscaling NASA/GISS ModelE2 simulations of the IPCC AR5 Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenario 6.0 will be shown. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model has been used as the RCM to downscale decadal time slices for ca. 2000 and ca. 2030 over North America and illustrate potential changes in regional climate that are projected by ModelE2 and WRF under RCP6.0. The analysis focuses on regional climate fields that most strongly influence the interactions between climate change and air quality. In particular, an analysis of extreme temperature and precipitation events will be presented.

Mid-Twenty-First-Century Changes in Global Wave Energy Flux: Single-Model, Single-Forcing and Single-Scenario Ensemble Projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Semedo, Alvaro; Lemos, Gil; Dobrynin, Mikhail; Behrens, Arno; Staneva, Joanna; Miranda, Pedro

2017-04-01

The knowledge of ocean surface wave energy fluxes (or wave power) is of outmost relevance since wave power has a direct impact in coastal erosion, but also in sediment transport and beach nourishment, and ship, as well as in coastal and offshore infrastructures design. Changes in the global wave energy flux pattern can alter significantly the impact of waves in continental shelf and coastal areas. Up until recently the impact of climate change in future global wave climate had received very little attention. Some single model single scenario global wave climate projections, based on CMIP3 scenarios, were pursuit under the auspices of the COWCLIP (coordinated ocean wave climate projections) project, and received some attention in the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change) AR5 (fifth assessment report). In the present study the impact of a warmer climate in the near future global wave energy flux climate is investigated through a 4-member "coherent" ensemble of wave climate projections: single-model, single-forcing, and single-scenario. In this methodology model variability is reduced, leaving only room for the climate change signal. The four ensemble members were produced with the wave model WAM, forced with wind speed and ice coverage from EC-Earth projections, following the representative concentration pathway with a high emissions scenario 8.5 (RCP8.5). The ensemble present climate reference period (the control run) has been set for 1976 to 2005. The projected changes in the global wave energy flux climate are analyzed for the 2031-2060 period.

New insights for the hydrology of the Rhine based on the new generation climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bouaziz, Laurène; Sperna Weiland, Frederiek; Beersma, Jules; Buiteveld, Hendrik

2014-05-01

Decision makers base their choices of adaptation strategies on climate change projections and their associated hydrological consequences. New insights of climate change gained under the new generation of climate models belonging to the IPCC 5th assessment report may influence (the planning of) adaption measures and/or future expectations. In this study, hydrological impacts of climate change as projected under the new generation of climate models for the Rhine were assessed. Hereto we downscaled 31 General Circulation Models (GCMs), which were developed as part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), using an advanced Delta Change Method for the Rhine basin. Changes in mean monthly, maximum and minimum flows at Lobith were derived with the semi-distributed hydrological model HBV of the Rhine. The projected changes were compared to changes that were previously obtained in the trans-boundary project Rheinblick using eight CMIP3 GCMs and Regional Climate Models (RCMs) for emission scenario A1B. All eight selected CMIP3 models (scenario A1B) predicted for 2071-2100 a decrease in mean monthly flows between June and October. Similar decreases were found for some of the 31 CMIP5 models for Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5. However, under each RCP, there were also models that projected an increase in mean flows between June and October and on average the decrease was smaller than for the eight CMIP3 models. For 2071-2100, also the mean annual minimum 7-days discharge decreased less in the CMIP5 model simulations than was projected in CMIP3. When assessing the response of mean monthly flows of the CMIP5 simulation with the CSIRO-Mk3-6-0 and HadGEM2-ES models with respect to initial conditions and RCPs, it was found that natural variability plays a dominant role in the near future (2021-2050), while changes in mean monthly flows are dominated by the radiative forcing in the far future (2071-2100). According to RCP 8.5 model simulations, the change in mean monthly flow from May to November may be half the change in mean monthly flow projected by RCP 4.5. From January to March, RCP 8.5 simulations projected higher changes in mean monthly flows than RCP 4.5 simulations. These new insights based on the CMIP5 simulations imply that for the Rhine, the mean and low flow extremes might not decrease as much in summer as was expected under CMIP3. Stresses on water availability during summer are therefore also less than expected from CMIP3.

Investigating Impacts of Climate Change on Irrigation Water Demands and Its Resulting Consequences on Groundwater Using CMIP5 Models.

PubMed

Goodarzi, Mustafa; Abedi-Koupai, Jahangir; Heidarpour, Manouchehr

2018-04-15

In this study, the impacts of climate change on crop water requirements and irrigation water requirements on the regional cropping pattern were evaluated using two climate change scenarios and combinations of 20 GCM models. Different models including CROPWAT, MODFLOW, and statistical models were used to evaluate the climate change impacts. The results showed that in the future period (2017 to 2046) the temperature in all months of the year will increase at all stations. The average annual precipitation decline in Isfahan, Tiran, Flavarjan, and Lenj stations for RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios are 18.6 and 27.6%, 15.2 and 18%, 22.5 and 31.5%, and 10.5 and 12.1%, respectively. The average increase in the evapotranspiration for RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios are about 2.5 and 4.1%, respectively. The irrigation water demands increases considerably and for some crops, on average 18%. Among the existing crops in the cropping pattern, barley, cumin, onion, wheat, and forage crops are more sensitive and their water demand will increase significantly. Results indicate that climate change could have a significant impact on water resources consumption. By considering irrigation efficiency in the region, climate change impacts will result in about 35 to 50 million m 3 /year, over-extraction from the aquifer. This additional exploitation causes an extra drop of 0.4 to 0.8 m in groundwater table per year in the aquifer. Therefore, with regard to the critical condition of the aquifer, management and preventive measures to deal with climate change in the future is absolutely necessary. © 2018, National Ground Water Association.

Visualizing projected Climate Changes - the CMIP5 Multi-Model Ensemble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Böttinger, Michael; Eyring, Veronika; Lauer, Axel; Meier-Fleischer, Karin

2017-04-01

Large ensembles add an additional dimension to climate model simulations. Internal variability of the climate system can be assessed for example by multiple climate model simulations with small variations in the initial conditions or by analyzing the spread in large ensembles made by multiple climate models under common protocols. This spread is often used as a measure of uncertainty in climate projections. In the context of the fifth phase of the WCRP's Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), more than 40 different coupled climate models were employed to carry out a coordinated set of experiments. Time series of the development of integral quantities such as the global mean temperature change for all models visualize the spread in the multi-model ensemble. A similar approach can be applied to 2D-visualizations of projected climate changes such as latitude-longitude maps showing the multi-model mean of the ensemble by adding a graphical representation of the uncertainty information. This has been demonstrated for example with static figures in chapter 12 of the last IPCC report (AR5) using different so-called stippling and hatching techniques. In this work, we focus on animated visualizations of multi-model ensemble climate projections carried out within CMIP5 as a way of communicating climate change results to the scientific community as well as to the public. We take a closer look at measures of robustness or uncertainty used in recent publications suitable for animated visualizations. Specifically, we use the ESMValTool [1] to process and prepare the CMIP5 multi-model data in combination with standard visualization tools such as NCL and the commercial 3D visualization software Avizo to create the animations. We compare different visualization techniques such as height fields or shading with transparency for creating animated visualization of ensemble mean changes in temperature and precipitation including corresponding robustness measures. [1] Eyring, V., Righi, M., Lauer, A., Evaldsson, M., Wenzel, S., Jones, C., Anav, A., Andrews, O., Cionni, I., Davin, E. L., Deser, C., Ehbrecht, C., Friedlingstein, P., Gleckler, P., Gottschaldt, K.-D., Hagemann, S., Juckes, M., Kindermann, S., Krasting, J., Kunert, D., Levine, R., Loew, A., Mäkelä, J., Martin, G., Mason, E., Phillips, A. S., Read, S., Rio, C., Roehrig, R., Senftleben, D., Sterl, A., van Ulft, L. H., Walton, J., Wang, S., and Williams, K. D.: ESMValTool (v1.0) - a community diagnostic and performance metrics tool for routine evaluation of Earth system models in CMIP, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 1747-1802, doi:10.5194/gmd-9-1747-2016, 2016.

Statistical bias correction method applied on CMIP5 datasets over the Indian region during the summer monsoon season for climate change applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prasanna, V.

2018-01-01

This study makes use of temperature and precipitation from CMIP5 climate model output for climate change application studies over the Indian region during the summer monsoon season (JJAS). Bias correction of temperature and precipitation from CMIP5 GCM simulation results with respect to observation is discussed in detail. The non-linear statistical bias correction is a suitable bias correction method for climate change data because it is simple and does not add up artificial uncertainties to the impact assessment of climate change scenarios for climate change application studies (agricultural production changes) in the future. The simple statistical bias correction uses observational constraints on the GCM baseline, and the projected results are scaled with respect to the changing magnitude in future scenarios, varying from one model to the other. Two types of bias correction techniques are shown here: (1) a simple bias correction using a percentile-based quantile-mapping algorithm and (2) a simple but improved bias correction method, a cumulative distribution function (CDF; Weibull distribution function)-based quantile-mapping algorithm. This study shows that the percentile-based quantile mapping method gives results similar to the CDF (Weibull)-based quantile mapping method, and both the methods are comparable. The bias correction is applied on temperature and precipitation variables for present climate and future projected data to make use of it in a simple statistical model to understand the future changes in crop production over the Indian region during the summer monsoon season. In total, 12 CMIP5 models are used for Historical (1901-2005), RCP4.5 (2005-2100), and RCP8.5 (2005-2100) scenarios. The climate index from each CMIP5 model and the observed agricultural yield index over the Indian region are used in a regression model to project the changes in the agricultural yield over India from RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The results revealed a better convergence of model projections in the bias corrected data compared to the uncorrected data. The study can be extended to localized regional domains aimed at understanding the changes in the agricultural productivity in the future with an agro-economy or a simple statistical model. The statistical model indicated that the total food grain yield is going to increase over the Indian region in the future, the increase in the total food grain yield is approximately 50 kg/ ha for the RCP4.5 scenario from 2001 until the end of 2100, and the increase in the total food grain yield is approximately 90 kg/ha for the RCP8.5 scenario from 2001 until the end of 2100. There are many studies using bias correction techniques, but this study applies the bias correction technique to future climate scenario data from CMIP5 models and applied it to crop statistics to find future crop yield changes over the Indian region.

Single-Particle Measurements of Midlatitude Black Carbon and Light-Scattering Aerosols from the Boundary Layer to the Lower Stratosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schwartz, J. P.; Gao, R. S.; Fahey, D. W.; Thomson, D. S.; Watts, L. A.; Wilson, J. C.; Reeves, J. M.; Darbeheshti, M.; Baumgardner, D. G.; Kok, G. L.;

Low fidelity of CORDEX and their driving experiments indicates future climatic uncertainty over Himalayan watersheds of Indus basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hasson, Shabeh ul; Böhner, Jürgen; Chishtie, Farrukh

2018-03-01

Assessment of future water availability from the Himalayan watersheds of Indus Basin (Jhelum, Kabul and upper Indus basin—UIB) is a growing concern for safeguarding the sustainable socioeconomic wellbeing downstream. This requires, before all, robust climate change information from the present-day state-of-the-art climate models. However, the robustness of climate change projections highly depends upon the fidelity of climate modeling experiments. Hence, this study assesses the fidelity of seven dynamically refined (0.44° ) experiments, performed under the framework of the coordinated regional climate downscaling experiment for South Asia (CX-SA), and additionally, their six coarse-resolution driving datasets participating in the coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 (CMIP5). We assess fidelity in terms of reproducibility of the observed climatology of temperature and precipitation, and the seasonality of the latter for the historical period (1971-2005). Based on the model fidelity results, we further assess the robustness or uncertainty of the far future climate (2061-2095), as projected under the extreme-end warming scenario of the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5. Our results show that the CX-SA and their driving CMIP5 experiments consistently feature low fidelity in terms of the chosen skill metrics, suggesting substantial cold (6-10 ° C) and wet (up to 80%) biases and underestimation of observed precipitation seasonality. Surprisingly, the CX-SA are unable to outperform their driving datasets. Further, the biases of CX-SA and of their driving CMIP5 datasets are higher in magnitude than their projected changes under RCP8.5—and hence under less extreme RCPs—by the end of 21st century, indicating uncertain future climates for the Indus Basin watersheds. Higher inter-dataset disagreements of both CMIP5 and CX-SA for their simulated historical precipitation and for its projected changes reinforce uncertain future wet/dry conditions whereas the CMIP5 projected warming is less robust owing to higher historical period uncertainty. Interestingly, a better agreement among those CX-SA experiments that have been obtained through downscaling different CMIP5 experiments with the same regional climate model (RCM) indicates the RCMs' ability of modulating the influence of lateral boundary conditions over a large domain. These findings, instead of suggesting the usual skill-based identification of 'reasonable' global or regional low fidelity experiments, rather emphasize on a paradigm shift towards improving their fidelity by exploiting the potential of meso-to-local scale climate models—preferably of those that can solely resolve global-to-local scale climatic processes—in terms of microphysics, resolution and explicitly resolved convections. Additionally, an extensive monitoring of the nival regime within the Himalayan watersheds will reduce the observational uncertainty, allowing for a more robust fidelity assessment of the climate modeling experiments.

Climate Penalty on Air Quality and Human Health in China and India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, M.; Zhang, S.; Garcia-Menendez, F.; Monier, E.; Selin, N. E.

2017-12-01

Climate change, favoring more heat waves and episodes of stagnant air, may deteriorate air quality by increasing ozone and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations and high pollution episodes. This effect, termed as "climate penalty", has been quantified and explained by many earlier studies in the U.S. and Europe, but research efforts in Asian countries are limited. We evaluate the impact of climate change on air quality and human health in China and India using a modeling framework that links the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Integrated Global System Model to the Community Atmosphere Model (MIT IGSM-CAM). Future climate fields are projected under three climate scenarios including a no-policy reference scenario and two climate stabilization scenarios with 2100 total radiative forcing targets of 9.7, 4.5 and 3.7 W m-2, respectively. Each climate scenario is run for five representations of climate variability to account for the role of natural variability. Thirty-year chemical transport simulations are conducted in 1981-2010 and 2086-2115 under the three climate scenarios with fixed anthropogenic emissions at year 2000 levels. We find that 2000—2100 climate change under the no-policy reference scenario would increase ozone concentrations in eastern China and northern India by up to 5 ppb through enhancing biogenic emissions and ozone production efficiency. Ozone extreme episodes also become more frequent in these regions, while climate policies can offset most of the increase in ozone episodes. Climate change between 2000 and 2100 would slightly increase anthropogenic PM2.5 concentrations in northern China and Sichuan province, but significantly reduce anthropogenic PM2.5 concentrations in southern China and northern India, primarily due to different chemical responses of sulfate-nitrate-ammonium aerosols to climate change in these regions. Our study also suggests that the mitigation costs of climate policies can be partially offset by health benefits from reduced climate-induced air pollution in China.

CMIP5-downscaled projections for the NW European Shelf Seas: initial results and insights into uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tinker, Jonathan; Palmer, Matthew; Lowe, Jason; Howard, Tom

2017-04-01

The North Sea, and wider Northwest European Shelf seas (NWS) are economically, environmentally, and culturally important for a number of European countries. They are protected by European legislation, often with specific reference to the potential impacts of climate change. Coastal climate change projections are an important source of information for effective management of European Shelf Seas. For example, potential changes in the marine environment are a key component of the climate change risk assessments (CCRAs) carried out under the UK Climate Change Act We use the NEMO shelf seas model combined with CMIP5 climate model and EURO-CORDEX regional atmospheric model data to generate new simulations of the NWS. Building on previous work using a climate model perturbed physics ensemble and the POLCOMS, this new model setup is used to provide first indication of the uncertainties associated with: (i) the driving climate model; (ii) the atmospheric downscaling model (iii) the shelf seas downscaling model; (iv) the choice of climate change scenario. Our analysis considers a range of physical marine impacts and the drivers of coastal variability and change, including sea level and the propagation of open ocean signals onto the shelf. The simulations are being carried out as part of the UK Climate Projections 2018 (UKCP18) and will feed into the following UK CCRA.

Climate suitability for European ticks: assessing species distribution models against null models and projection under AR5 climate.

PubMed

Williams, Hefin Wyn; Cross, Dónall Eoin; Crump, Heather Louise; Drost, Cornelis Jan; Thomas, Christopher James

2015-08-28

There is increasing evidence that the geographic distribution of tick species is changing. Whilst correlative Species Distribution Models (SDMs) have been used to predict areas that are potentially suitable for ticks, models have often been assessed without due consideration for spatial patterns in the data that may inflate the influence of predictor variables on species distributions. This study used null models to rigorously evaluate the role of climate and the potential for climate change to affect future climate suitability for eight European tick species, including several important disease vectors. We undertook a comparative assessment of the performance of Maxent and Mahalanobis Distance SDMs based on observed data against those of null models based on null species distributions or null climate data. This enabled the identification of species whose distributions demonstrate a significant association with climate variables. Latest generation (AR5) climate projections were subsequently used to project future climate suitability under four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Seven out of eight tick species exhibited strong climatic signals within their observed distributions. Future projections intimate varying degrees of northward shift in climate suitability for these tick species, with the greatest shifts forecasted under the most extreme RCPs. Despite the high performance measure obtained for the observed model of Hyalomma lusitanicum, it did not perform significantly better than null models; this may result from the effects of non-climatic factors on its distribution. By comparing observed SDMs with null models, our results allow confidence that we have identified climate signals in tick distributions that are not simply a consequence of spatial patterns in the data. Observed climate-driven SDMs for seven out of eight species performed significantly better than null models, demonstrating the vulnerability of these tick species to the effects of climate change in the future.

Sensitivity of amplitude-phase characteristics of the surface air temperature annual cycle to variations in annual mean temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eliseev, A. V.; Mokhov, I. I.; Guseva, M. S.

2006-05-01

The ERA40 and NCEP/NCAR data over 1958 1998 were used to estimate the sensitivity of amplitude-phase characteristics (APCs) of the annual cycle (AC) of the surface air temperature (SAT) T s. The results were compared with outputs of the ECHAM4/OPYC3, HadCM3, and INM RAS general circulation models and the IAP RAS climate model of intermediate complexity, which were run with variations in greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosol specified over 1860 2100. The analysis was performed in terms of the linear regression coefficients b of SAT AC APCs on the local annual mean temperature and in terms of the sensitivity characteristic D = br 2, which takes into account not only the linear regression coefficient but also its statistical significance (via the correlation coefficient r). The reanalysis data were used to reveal the features of the tendencies of change in the SAT AC APCs in various regions, including areas near the snow-ice boundary, storm-track ocean regions, large desert areas, and the tropical Pacific. These results agree with earlier observations. The model computations are in fairly good agreement with the reanalysis data in regions of statistically significant variations in SAT AC APCs. The differences between individual models and the reanalysis data can be explained, in particular, in terms of the features of the sea-ice schemes used in the models. Over the land in the middle and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, the absolute values of D for the fall phase time and the interval of exceeding exhibit a positive intermodel correlation with the absolute value of D for the annual-harmonic amplitude. Over the ocean, the models reproducing larger (in modulus) sensitivity parameters of the SAT annual-harmonic amplitude are generally characterized by larger (in modulus) negative sensitivity values of the semiannual-harmonic amplitude T s, 2, especially at latitudes characteristic of the sea-ice boundary. In contrast to the averaged fields of AC APCs and their interannual standard deviations, the sensitivity parameters of the SAT AC APCs on a regional scale vary noticeably for various types of anthropogenic forcing.

``Supemodeling" by Coupling Multiple Atmospheres to A Single Ocean Simulates Single-ITCZ Climatology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duane, G. S.; Shen, M. L.; Keenlyside, N. S.

2017-12-01

If the members of an ensemble of different models are allowed to interact with one another in run time, predictive skill can be improved as compared to that of any individual model or any average of individual model outputs. Inter-model connections in such an interactive ensemble can be trained, using historical data, so that the resulting ``supermodel" synchronizes with reality when observations are continuously assimilated, as in weather prediction. In climate-projection mode, the supermodel, after training, reproduces the attractor of the real system. We consider a variant of full supermodeling in which the models are only connected via the fluxes at the ocean-atmosphere interface. Two ECHAM atmospheres that differ in their convection parametrization schemes are thus connected to a single, shared ocean. The atmospheres partially synchronize at lower levels in the tropics, giving more realistic SST patterns than the constituent models: Although the constituent models both exhibit double ITCZ's, with cold tongues that extend too far west, the supermodel has the desired single ITCZ [Shen et al., Geophys. Res. Lett. 2016]. Here we explain the physical mechanism through which the supermodel removes even defects that are shared. One model (Nordeng) produces an unrealistically large zonal wind stress that results in upwelling of cold water and westward extension of the cold tongue. The other model (Tiedtke) produces an unrealistically small zonal wind stress that also implies a reduced wind stress curl off the equator because of Hadley-Walker coupling. The reduced wind stress curl leads to downwelling off the equator, and resultant upwelling of cold water at the equator through the tropical ocean cell. Thus the two constituent models give erroneous patterns of the same type, while the supermodel, which combines the models dynamically, avoids the error. If the models were linear, the errors of the two models would average; the success of the supermodel depends on nonlinearities in the east-west and north-south ocean-atmosphere feedbacks. It is argued that such behavior is widespread: supermodeling near-critical behavior in the coupled Earth System can give results that depend non-monotonically on the weights attached to the constituent models, thus surpassing those models, even when they err in the same way.

A Scaling Model for the Anthropocene Climate Variability with Projections to 2100

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hébert, Raphael; Lovejoy, Shaun

2017-04-01

The determination of the climate sensitivity to radiative forcing is a fundamental climate science problem with important policy implications. We use a scaling model, with a limited set of parameters, which can directly calculate the forced globally-average surface air temperature response to anthropogenic and natural forcings. At timescales larger than an inner scale τ, which we determine as the ocean-atmosphere coupling scale at around 2 years, the global system responds, approximately, linearly, so that the variability may be decomposed into additive forced and internal components. The Ruelle response theory extends the classical linear response theory for small perturbations to systems far from equilibrium. Our model thus relates radiative forcings to a forced temperature response by convolution with a suitable Green's function, or climate response function. Motivated by scaling symmetries which allow for long range dependence, we assume a general scaling form, a scaling climate response function (SCRF) which is able to produce a wide range of responses: a power-law truncated at τ. This allows us to analytically calculate the climate sensitivity at different time scales, yielding a one-to-one relation from the transient climate response to the equilibrium climate sensitivity which are estimated, respectively, as 1.6+0.3-0.2K and 2.4+1.3-0.6K at the 90 % confidence level. The model parameters are estimated within a Bayesian framework, with a fractional Gaussian noise error model as the internal variability, from forcing series, instrumental surface temperature datasets and CMIP5 GCMs Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenario runs. This observation based model is robust and projections for the coming century are made following the RCP scenario 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5, yielding in the year 2100, respectively : 1.5 +0.3)_{-0.2K, 2.3 ± 0.4 K and 4.0 ± 0.6 K at the 90 % confidence level. For comparison, the associated projections from a CMIP5 multi-model ensemble(MME) (32 models) are: 1.7 ± 0.8 K, 2.6 ± 0.8 K and 4.8 ± 1.3 K. Therefore, our projection uncertainty is less than half the structural uncertainty of this CMIP5 MME.

Climate change likely to favor shift toward warmer climate states of the Pliocene and Eocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burke, K. D.; Williams, J. W.

2017-12-01

As the world warms due to rising greenhouse gas concentrations, the climate system is moving toward a state without precedent in the historical record. Various past climate states have been proposed as potential analogues or model systems for the coming decades, including the early to middle Holocene, the last interglacial, the middle Pliocene, and the early Eocene. However, until now, such comparisons have been qualitative. To compare these time periods to the projected climate states for the 21st and 22nd centuries, we conduct a climate similarity analysis using the standardized Euclidean distance metric (SED) and seasonal means of surface air temperature and precipitation. We make this future-to-past comparison using 30-year mean climatologies, for every decade between 2020 and 2280 AD (27 total comparisons). The list of past earth system states includes the historical period (1940-1970 AD), a pre-industrial control (ca. 1850), the middle Holocene (ca. 6 ka), the last glacial maximum (ca. 21 ka), the last interglacial (ca. 125 ka), the middle Pliocene (ca. 3 Ma), and the early Eocene (ca. 50-55 Ma). To reduce uncertainties resulting from choice of earth system model, analyses are based on simulations from three earth system models (HadCM, CCSM, NASA/GISS Model-E), using in part experiments from PMIP2, PMIP3/CMIP5, EoMIP, and PlioMIP. Results are presented for two representative concentration pathways (RCP's 4.5, 8.5). By 2050 AD, the most common past climate analogue is sourced from the Pliocene for RCP 8.5, while by 2190 AD, the Eocene becomes the source of the most common past climate analogue. For RCP 4.5, in which radiative forcings stabilize this century, the Pliocene becomes the most important past climate analogue by 2100 AD. Low latitude climates are the first to most closely resemble these past earth warm periods. The mid-latitudes then follow this pattern by the end of the 22nd century. Although no past state of the earth system is a perfect analogue for the Anthropocene, these analyses clarify the similarities between the expected climates of the future and the geological climates of the past.

Dependence of the evolution of carbon dynamics in the northern permafrost region on the trajectory of climate change

PubMed Central

Lawrence, David M.; Koven, Charles; Clein, Joy S.; Burke, Eleanor; Chen, Guangsheng; Jafarov, Elchin; MacDougall, Andrew H.; Marchenko, Sergey; Nicolsky, Dmitry; Peng, Shushi; Rinke, Annette; Ciais, Philippe; Gouttevin, Isabelle; Krinner, Gerhard; Moore, John C.; Romanovsky, Vladimir; Schädel, Christina; Schaefer, Kevin; Zhuang, Qianlai

2018-01-01

We conducted a model-based assessment of changes in permafrost area and carbon storage for simulations driven by RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 projections between 2010 and 2299 for the northern permafrost region. All models simulating carbon represented soil with depth, a critical structural feature needed to represent the permafrost carbon–climate feedback, but that is not a universal feature of all climate models. Between 2010 and 2299, simulations indicated losses of permafrost between 3 and 5 million km2 for the RCP4.5 climate and between 6 and 16 million km2 for the RCP8.5 climate. For the RCP4.5 projection, cumulative change in soil carbon varied between 66-Pg C (1015-g carbon) loss to 70-Pg C gain. For the RCP8.5 projection, losses in soil carbon varied between 74 and 652 Pg C (mean loss, 341 Pg C). For the RCP4.5 projection, gains in vegetation carbon were largely responsible for the overall projected net gains in ecosystem carbon by 2299 (8- to 244-Pg C gains). In contrast, for the RCP8.5 projection, gains in vegetation carbon were not great enough to compensate for the losses of carbon projected by four of the five models; changes in ecosystem carbon ranged from a 641-Pg C loss to a 167-Pg C gain (mean, 208-Pg C loss). The models indicate that substantial net losses of ecosystem carbon would not occur until after 2100. This assessment suggests that effective mitigation efforts during the remainder of this century could attenuate the negative consequences of the permafrost carbon–climate feedback. PMID:29581283

Dependence of the evolution of carbon dynamics in the northern permafrost region on the trajectory of climate change

DOE PAGES

McGuire, A. David; Lawrence, David M.; Koven, Charles; ...

2018-03-26

We conducted a model-based assessment of changes in permafrost area and carbon storage for simulations driven by RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 projections between 2010 and 2299 for the northern permafrost region. All models simulating carbon represented soil with depth, a critical structural feature needed to represent the permafrost carbon–climate feedback, but that is not a universal feature of all climate models. Between 2010 and 2299, simulations indicated losses of permafrost between 3 and 5 million km2 for the RCP4.5 climate and between 6 and 16 million km 2 for the RCP8.5 climate. For the RCP4.5 projection, cumulative change in soil carbonmore » varied between 66-Pg C (10 15-g carbon) loss to 70-Pg C gain. For the RCP8.5 projection, losses in soil carbon varied between 74 and 652 Pg C (mean loss, 341 Pg C). For the RCP4.5 projection, gains in vegetation carbon were largely responsible for the overall projected net gains in ecosystem carbon by 2299 (8- to 244-Pg C gains). In contrast, for the RCP8.5 projection, gains in vegetation carbon were not great enough to compensate for the losses of carbon projected by four of the five models; changes in ecosystem carbon ranged from a 641-Pg C loss to a 167-Pg C gain (mean, 208-Pg C loss). The models indicate that substantial net losses of ecosystem carbon would not occur until after 2100. In conclusion, this assessment suggests that effective mitigation efforts during the remainder of this century could attenuate the negative consequences of the permafrost carbon–climate feedback.« less

Dependence of the evolution of carbon dynamics in the northern permafrost region on the trajectory of climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

McGuire, A. David; Lawrence, David M.; Koven, Charles; Clein, Joy S.; Burke, Eleanor J.; Chen, Guangsheng; Jafarov, Elchin; MacDougall, Andrew H.; Marchenko, Sergey S.; Nicolsky, Dmitry J.; Peng, Shushi; Rinke, Annette; Ciais, Philippe; Gouttevin, Isabelle; Hayes, Daniel J.; Ji, Duoying; Krinner, Gerhard; Moore, John C.; Romanovsky, Vladimir; Schadel, Christina; Schaefer, Kevin; Schuur, Edward A.G.; Zhuang, Qianlai

2018-01-01

We conducted a model-based assessment of changes in permafrost area and carbon storage for simulations driven by RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 projections between 2010 and 2299 for the northern permafrost region. All models simulating carbon represented soil with depth, a critical structural feature needed to represent the permafrost carbon–climate feedback, but that is not a universal feature of all climate models. Between 2010 and 2299, simulations indicated losses of permafrost between 3 and 5 million km2 for the RCP4.5 climate and between 6 and 16 million km2 for the RCP8.5 climate. For the RCP4.5 projection, cumulative change in soil carbon varied between 66-Pg C (1015-g carbon) loss to 70-Pg C gain. For the RCP8.5 projection, losses in soil carbon varied between 74 and 652 Pg C (mean loss, 341 Pg C). For the RCP4.5 projection, gains in vegetation carbon were largely responsible for the overall projected net gains in ecosystem carbon by 2299 (8- to 244-Pg C gains). In contrast, for the RCP8.5 projection, gains in vegetation carbon were not great enough to compensate for the losses of carbon projected by four of the five models; changes in ecosystem carbon ranged from a 641-Pg C loss to a 167-Pg C gain (mean, 208-Pg C loss). The models indicate that substantial net losses of ecosystem carbon would not occur until after 2100. This assessment suggests that effective mitigation efforts during the remainder of this century could attenuate the negative consequences of the permafrost carbon–climate feedback.

Dependence of the evolution of carbon dynamics in the northern permafrost region on the trajectory of climate change.

PubMed

McGuire, A David; Lawrence, David M; Koven, Charles; Clein, Joy S; Burke, Eleanor; Chen, Guangsheng; Jafarov, Elchin; MacDougall, Andrew H; Marchenko, Sergey; Nicolsky, Dmitry; Peng, Shushi; Rinke, Annette; Ciais, Philippe; Gouttevin, Isabelle; Hayes, Daniel J; Ji, Duoying; Krinner, Gerhard; Moore, John C; Romanovsky, Vladimir; Schädel, Christina; Schaefer, Kevin; Schuur, Edward A G; Zhuang, Qianlai

2018-04-10

We conducted a model-based assessment of changes in permafrost area and carbon storage for simulations driven by RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 projections between 2010 and 2299 for the northern permafrost region. All models simulating carbon represented soil with depth, a critical structural feature needed to represent the permafrost carbon-climate feedback, but that is not a universal feature of all climate models. Between 2010 and 2299, simulations indicated losses of permafrost between 3 and 5 million km 2 for the RCP4.5 climate and between 6 and 16 million km 2 for the RCP8.5 climate. For the RCP4.5 projection, cumulative change in soil carbon varied between 66-Pg C (10 15 -g carbon) loss to 70-Pg C gain. For the RCP8.5 projection, losses in soil carbon varied between 74 and 652 Pg C (mean loss, 341 Pg C). For the RCP4.5 projection, gains in vegetation carbon were largely responsible for the overall projected net gains in ecosystem carbon by 2299 (8- to 244-Pg C gains). In contrast, for the RCP8.5 projection, gains in vegetation carbon were not great enough to compensate for the losses of carbon projected by four of the five models; changes in ecosystem carbon ranged from a 641-Pg C loss to a 167-Pg C gain (mean, 208-Pg C loss). The models indicate that substantial net losses of ecosystem carbon would not occur until after 2100. This assessment suggests that effective mitigation efforts during the remainder of this century could attenuate the negative consequences of the permafrost carbon-climate feedback. Copyright © 2018 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

Dependence of the evolution of carbon dynamics in the northern permafrost region on the trajectory of climate change

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

McGuire, A. David; Lawrence, David M.; Koven, Charles

We conducted a model-based assessment of changes in permafrost area and carbon storage for simulations driven by RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 projections between 2010 and 2299 for the northern permafrost region. All models simulating carbon represented soil with depth, a critical structural feature needed to represent the permafrost carbon–climate feedback, but that is not a universal feature of all climate models. Between 2010 and 2299, simulations indicated losses of permafrost between 3 and 5 million km2 for the RCP4.5 climate and between 6 and 16 million km 2 for the RCP8.5 climate. For the RCP4.5 projection, cumulative change in soil carbonmore » varied between 66-Pg C (10 15-g carbon) loss to 70-Pg C gain. For the RCP8.5 projection, losses in soil carbon varied between 74 and 652 Pg C (mean loss, 341 Pg C). For the RCP4.5 projection, gains in vegetation carbon were largely responsible for the overall projected net gains in ecosystem carbon by 2299 (8- to 244-Pg C gains). In contrast, for the RCP8.5 projection, gains in vegetation carbon were not great enough to compensate for the losses of carbon projected by four of the five models; changes in ecosystem carbon ranged from a 641-Pg C loss to a 167-Pg C gain (mean, 208-Pg C loss). The models indicate that substantial net losses of ecosystem carbon would not occur until after 2100. In conclusion, this assessment suggests that effective mitigation efforts during the remainder of this century could attenuate the negative consequences of the permafrost carbon–climate feedback.« less

The Parana paradox: can a model explain the decadal impacts of climate variability and land-cover change?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, E.; Moorcroft, P. R.; Livino, A.; Briscoe, J.

2013-12-01

Since the 1970s, despite a decrease in rainfall, flow in the Parana river has increased. This paradox is explored using the Ecosystem Demography (ED) model. If there were no change in land cover, the modeled runoff decreased from the 1970s to the 2000s by 11.8% (with 1970 land cover) or 18.8% (with 2008 land cover). When the model is run holding climate constant, the decadal average of the modeled runoff increased by 24.4% (with the 1970s climate) or by 33.6% (with 2000s climate). When the model is run allowing both the actual climate and land-cover changes, the model gives an increase in the decadal average of runoff by 8.5%. This agrees well with 10.5% increase in the actual stream flow as measured at Itaipu. There are three main conclusions from this work. First, the ED model is able to explain a major, paradoxical, reality in the Parana basin. Second, it is necessary to take into account both climate and land use changes when exploring past or future changes in river flows. Third, the ED model, now coupled with a regional climate model (i.e., EDBRAMS), is a sound basis for exploring likely changes in river flows in major South American rivers.

Inability of CMIP5 Climate Models to Simulate Recent Multi-decadal Climate Change in the Tropical Pacific.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Power, S.; Delage, F.; Kociuba, G.; Wang, G.; Smith, I.

2017-12-01

Observed 15-year surface temperature trends beginning 1998 or later have attracted a great deal of interest because of an apparent slowdown in the rate of global warming, and contrasts between climate model simulations and observations of such trends. Many studies have addressed the statistical significance of these relatively short trends, whether they indicate a possible bias in models and the implications for global warming generally. Here we analyse historical and projected changes in 38 CMIP5 climate models. All of the models simulate multi-decadal warming in the Pacific over the past half-century that exceeds observed values. This stark difference cannot be fully explained by observed, internal multi-decadal climate variability, even if allowance is made for an apparent tendency for models to underestimate internal multi-decadal variability in the Pacific. We also show that CMIP5 models are not able to simulate the magnitude of the strengthening of the Walker Circulation over the past thirty years. Some of the reasons for these major shortcomings in the ability of models to simulate multi-decadal variability in the Pacific, and the impact these findings have on our confidence in global 21st century projections, will be discussed.

Future vegetation ecosystem response to warming climate over the Tibetan Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bao, Y.; Gao, Y.; Wang, Y.

2017-12-01

The amplified vegetation response to climate variability has been found over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) in recent decades. In this study, the potential impacts of 21st century climate change on the vegetation ecosystem over the TP are assessed based on the dynamic vegetation outputs of models from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), and the sensitivity of the TP vegetation in response to warming climate was investigated. Models project a continuous and accelerating greening in future, especially in the eastern TP, which closely associates with the plant type upgrade due to the pronouncing warming in growing season.Vegetation leaf area index (LAI) increase well follows the global warming, suggesting the warming climate instead of co2 fertilization controlls the future TP plant growth. The warming spring may advance the start of green-up day and extend the growing season length. More carbon accumulation in vegetation and soil will intensify the TP carbon cycle and will keep it as a carbon sink in future. Keywords: Leaf Area Index (LAI), Climate Change, Global Dynamic Vegetation Models (DGVMs), CMIP5, Tibetan Plateau (TP)

Multi-year downscaling application of two-way coupled WRF v3.4 and CMAQ v5.0.2 over east Asia for regional climate and air quality modeling: model evaluation and aerosol direct effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hong, Chaopeng; Zhang, Qiang; Zhang, Yang; Tang, Youhua; Tong, Daniel; He, Kebin

2017-06-01

In this study, a regional coupled climate-chemistry modeling system using the dynamical downscaling technique was established by linking the global Community Earth System Model (CESM) and the regional two-way coupled Weather Research and Forecasting - Community Multi-scale Air Quality (WRF-CMAQ) model for the purpose of comprehensive assessments of regional climate change and air quality and their interactions within one modeling framework. The modeling system was applied over east Asia for a multi-year climatological application during 2006-2010, driven with CESM downscaling data under Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 (RCP4.5), along with a short-term air quality application in representative months in 2013 that was driven with a reanalysis dataset. A comprehensive model evaluation was conducted against observations from surface networks and satellite observations to assess the model's performance. This study presents the first application and evaluation of the two-way coupled WRF-CMAQ model for climatological simulations using the dynamical downscaling technique. The model was able to satisfactorily predict major meteorological variables. The improved statistical performance for the 2 m temperature (T2) in this study (with a mean bias of -0.6 °C) compared with the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) multi-models might be related to the use of the regional model WRF and the bias-correction technique applied for CESM downscaling. The model showed good ability to predict PM2. 5 in winter (with a normalized mean bias (NMB) of 6.4 % in 2013) and O3 in summer (with an NMB of 18.2 % in 2013) in terms of statistical performance and spatial distributions. Compared with global models that tend to underpredict PM2. 5 concentrations in China, WRF-CMAQ was able to capture the high PM2. 5 concentrations in urban areas. In general, the two-way coupled WRF-CMAQ model performed well for both climatological and air quality applications. The coupled modeling system with direct aerosol feedbacks predicted aerosol optical depth relatively well and significantly reduced the overprediction in downward shortwave radiation at the surface (SWDOWN) over polluted regions in China. The performance of cloud variables was not as good as other meteorological variables, and underpredictions of cloud fraction resulted in overpredictions of SWDOWN and underpredictions of shortwave and longwave cloud forcing. The importance of climate-chemistry interactions was demonstrated via the impacts of aerosol direct effects on climate and air quality. The aerosol effects on climate and air quality in east Asia (e.g., SWDOWN and T2 decreased by 21.8 W m-2 and 0.45 °C, respectively, and most pollutant concentrations increased by 4.8-9.5 % in January over China's major cities) were more significant than in other regions because of higher aerosol loadings that resulted from severe regional pollution, which indicates the need for applying online-coupled models over east Asia for regional climate and air quality modeling and to study the important climate-chemistry interactions. This work established a baseline for WRF-CMAQ simulations for a future period under the RCP4.5 climate scenario, which will be presented in a future paper.

Implications of freshwater flux data from the CMIP5 multimodel output across a set of Northern Hemisphere drainage basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bring, Arvid; Asokan, Shilpa M.; Jaramillo, Fernando; Jarsjö, Jerker; Levi, Lea; Pietroń, Jan; Prieto, Carmen; Rogberg, Peter; Destouni, Georgia

2015-06-01

The multimodel ensemble of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5) synthesizes the latest research in global climate modeling. The freshwater system on land, particularly runoff, has so far been of relatively low priority in global climate models, despite the societal and ecosystem importance of freshwater changes, and the science and policy needs for such model output on drainage basin scales. Here we investigate the implications of CMIP5 multimodel ensemble output data for the freshwater system across a set of drainage basins in the Northern Hemisphere. Results of individual models vary widely, with even ensemble mean results differing greatly from observations and implying unrealistic long-term systematic changes in water storage and level within entire basins. The CMIP5 projections of basin-scale freshwater fluxes differ considerably more from observations and among models for the warm temperate study basins than for the Arctic and cold temperate study basins. In general, the results call for concerted research efforts and model developments for improving the understanding and modeling of the freshwater system and its change drivers. Specifically, more attention to basin-scale water flux analyses should be a priority for climate model development, and an important focus for relevant model-based advice for adaptation to climate change.

Future climate data from RCP 4.5 and occurrence of malaria in Korea.

PubMed

Kwak, Jaewon; Noh, Huiseong; Kim, Soojun; Singh, Vijay P; Hong, Seung Jin; Kim, Duckgil; Lee, Keonhaeng; Kang, Narae; Kim, Hung Soo

2014-10-15

Since its reappearance at the Military Demarcation Line in 1993, malaria has been occurring annually in Korea. Malaria is regarded as a third grade nationally notifiable disease susceptible to climate change. The objective of this study is to quantify the effect of climatic factors on the occurrence of malaria in Korea and construct a malaria occurrence model for predicting the future trend of malaria under the influence of climate change. Using data from 2001-2011, the effect of time lag between malaria occurrence and mean temperature, relative humidity and total precipitation was investigated using spectral analysis. Also, a principal component regression model was constructed, considering multicollinearity. Future climate data, generated from RCP 4.5 climate change scenario and CNCM3 climate model, was applied to the constructed regression model to simulate future malaria occurrence and analyze the trend of occurrence. Results show an increase in the occurrence of malaria and the shortening of annual time of occurrence in the future.

Future Climate Data from RCP 4.5 and Occurrence of Malaria in Korea

PubMed Central

Kwak, Jaewon; Noh, Huiseong; Kim, Soojun; Singh, Vijay P.; Hong, Seung Jin; Kim, Duckgil; Lee, Keonhaeng; Kang, Narae; Kim, Hung Soo

2014-01-01

Since its reappearance at the Military Demarcation Line in 1993, malaria has been occurring annually in Korea. Malaria is regarded as a third grade nationally notifiable disease susceptible to climate change. The objective of this study is to quantify the effect of climatic factors on the occurrence of malaria in Korea and construct a malaria occurrence model for predicting the future trend of malaria under the influence of climate change. Using data from 2001–2011, the effect of time lag between malaria occurrence and mean temperature, relative humidity and total precipitation was investigated using spectral analysis. Also, a principal component regression model was constructed, considering multicollinearity. Future climate data, generated from RCP 4.5 climate change scenario and CNCM3 climate model, was applied to the constructed regression model to simulate future malaria occurrence and analyze the trend of occurrence. Results show an increase in the occurrence of malaria and the shortening of annual time of occurrence in the future. PMID:25321875

Evaluating Impacts of climate and land use changes on streamflow using SWAT and land use models based CESM1-CAM5 Climate scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Tzu Ping; Lin, Yu Pin; Lien, Wan Yu

2015-04-01

Climate change projects have various levels of impacts on hydrological cycles around the world. The impact of climate change and uncertainty of climate projections from general circulation models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) which has been just be released in Taiwan, 2014. Since the streamflow run into ocean directly due to the steep terrain and the rainfall difference between wet and dry seasons is apparent; as a result, the allocation water resource reasonable is very challenge in Taiwan, particularly under climate change. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the impacts of climate and land use changes on a small watershed in Taiwan. The AR5 General Circulation Models(GCM) output data was adopted in this study and was downscaled from the monthly to the daily weather data as the input data of hydrological model such as Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model in this study. The spatially explicit land uses change model, the Conservation of Land Use and its Effects at Small regional extent (CLUE-s), was applied to simulate land use scenarios in 2020-2039. Combined climate and land use change scenarios were adopted as input data of the hydrological model, the SWAT model, to estimate the future streamflows. With the increasing precipitation, increasing urban area and decreasing agricultural and grass land, the annual streamflow in the most of twenty-three subbasins were also increased. Besides, due to the increasing rainfall in wet season and decreasing rainfall in dry season, the difference of streamflow between wet season and dry season are also increased. This result indicates a more stringent challenge on the water resource management in future. Therefore, impacts on water resource caused by climate change and land use change should be considered in water resource planning for the Datuan river watershed. Keywords: SWAT, GCM, CLUE-s, streamflow, climate change, land use change

Potential Climate-driven Silvicultural and Agricultural Transformations in Siberia in the 21 Century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tchebakova, N. M.; Parfenova, E. I.; Shvetsov, E.; Soja, A. J.

2017-12-01

Simulations of Siberian forests in a changing climate showed them to be changed in composition, decreased, and shifted northwards. Our goals were to evaluate the ecological consequences for the forests and agriculture in Siberia and to offer adaptive measures that may be undertaken to minimize negative consequences and maximize benefits from a rapidly changing environment in the socially important region of southern Siberia. We considered two strategies to estimate climate-change effects on potentially failing forests within an expanding forest-steppe ecotone. To support forestry, seed transfers from locations that are best suited to the genotypes in future climates may be applied to assist trees and forests in a changing climate. To support agriculture, in view of the growing world concerns on food safety, new farming lands may be established in a new forest-steppe ecotone with its favorable climatic and soil resources. We used our bioclimatic vegetation models of various levels: a forest type model to predict forest shifts and forest-failing lands, tree species range and their climatypes models to predict what tree species/climatype would be suitable and crop models to predict crops to introduce in potentially climate-disturbed areas in Siberia. Climate change data for the 2080s were calculated from the ensemble of 20 general circulation models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) and two scenarios to characterize the range of climate change: mild climate (RCP2.6 scenario) and sharp climate (RCP 8.5 scenario). By the 2080s, forest-steppe and steppe rather than forests would dominate up to half of Siberia in the warmer and dryer RCP 8.5 climate. Water stress tolerant and fire-resistant light-needled species Pinus sylvestris and Larix spp. would dominate the forest-steppe ecotone. Failing forests in a dryer climate may be maintained by moving and substituting proper climatypes from locations often hundreds of km away. Agriculture in Siberia would likely benefit from climate warming. Farming may be a choice to use lands where forests would fail. Potential croplands would be limited by suitable soils in the north and irrigation in the south. To recommend an economic strategy that would optimize economic gains/losses due to the effects of climate change will require additional research

Readings from Visibility Meters: Do They Really Mean the Maximum Distance of Observing A Black Object?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, M.; Zhang, S.; Garcia-Menendez, F.; Monier, E.; Selin, N. E.

2016-12-01

Climate change, favoring more heat waves and episodes of stagnant air, may deteriorate air quality by increasing ozone and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations and high pollution episodes. This effect, termed as "climate penalty", has been quantified and explained by many earlier studies in the U.S. and Europe, but research efforts in Asian countries are limited. We evaluate the impact of climate change on air quality and human health in China and India using a modeling framework that links the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Integrated Global System Model to the Community Atmosphere Model (MIT IGSM-CAM). Future climate fields are projected under three climate scenarios including a no-policy reference scenario and two climate stabilization scenarios with 2100 total radiative forcing targets of 9.7, 4.5 and 3.7 W m-2, respectively. Each climate scenario is run for five representations of climate variability to account for the role of natural variability. Thirty-year chemical transport simulations are conducted in 1981-2010 and 2086-2115 under the three climate scenarios with fixed anthropogenic emissions at year 2000 levels. We find that 2000—2100 climate change under the no-policy reference scenario would increase ozone concentrations in eastern China and northern India by up to 5 ppb through enhancing biogenic emissions and ozone production efficiency. Ozone extreme episodes also become more frequent in these regions, while climate policies can offset most of the increase in ozone episodes. Climate change between 2000 and 2100 would slightly increase anthropogenic PM2.5 concentrations in northern China and Sichuan province, but significantly reduce anthropogenic PM2.5 concentrations in southern China and northern India, primarily due to different chemical responses of sulfate-nitrate-ammonium aerosols to climate change in these regions. Our study also suggests that the mitigation costs of climate policies can be partially offset by health benefits from reduced climate-induced air pollution in China.

The Status of Mars Climate Change Modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Haberle, Robert M.

1997-01-01

Researchers have reviewed the evidence that the climate of Mars has changed throughout its history. In this paper, the discussion focuses on where we stand in terms of modeling these climate changes. For convenience, three distinct types of climate regimes are considered: very early in the planet's history (more than 3.5 Ga), when warm wet conditions are thought to have prevailed; the bulk of the planet's history (3.5-1 Ga), during which episodic ocean formation has been suggested; and relatively recently in the planet's history (less than 1 Ga), when orbitally induced climate change is thought to have occurred.

Influence of climate change on flood magnitude and seasonality in the Arga River catchment in Spain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garijo, Carlos; Mediero, Luis

2018-04-01

Climate change projections suggest that extremes, such as floods, will modify their behaviour in the future. Detailed catchment-scale studies are needed to implement the European Union Floods Directive and give recommendations for flood management and design of hydraulic infrastructure. In this study, a methodology to quantify changes in future flood magnitude and seasonality due to climate change at a catchment scale is proposed. Projections of 24 global climate models are used, with 10 being downscaled by the Spanish Meteorological Agency (Agencia Estatal de Meteorología, AEMET) and 14 from the EURO-CORDEX project, under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5, from the Fifth Assessment Report provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Downscaled climate models provided by the AEMET were corrected in terms of bias. The HBV rainfall-runoff model was selected to simulate the catchment hydrological behaviour. Simulations were analysed through both annual maximum and peaks-over-threshold (POT) series. The results show a decrease in the magnitude of extreme floods for the climate model projections downscaled by the AEMET. However, results for the climate model projections downscaled by EURO-CORDEX show differing trends, depending on the RCP. A small decrease in the flood magnitude was noticed for the RCP 4.5, while an increase was found for the RCP 8.5. Regarding the monthly seasonality analysis performed by using the POT series, a delay in the flood timing from late-autumn to late-winter is identified supporting the findings of recent studies performed with observed data in recent decades.

Possible implications of global climate change on global lightning distributions and frequencies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Price, Colin; Rind, David

1994-01-01

The Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) general circulation model (GCM) is used to study the possible implications of past and future climate change on global lightning frequencies. Two climate change experiments were conducted: one for a 2 x CO2 climate (representing a 4.2 degs C global warming) and one for a 2% decrease in the solar constant (representing a 5.9 degs C global cooling). The results suggest at 30% increase in global lightning activity for the warmer climate and a 24% decrease in global lightning activity for the colder climate. This implies an approximate 5-6% change in global lightning frequencies for every 1 degs C global warming/cooling. Both intracloud and cloud-to-ground frequencies are modeled, with cloud-to-ground lightning frequencies showing larger sensitivity to climate change than intracloud frequencies. The magnitude of the modeled lightning changes depends on season, location, and even time of day.

Estimating uncertainty and its temporal variation related to global climate models in quantifying climate change impacts on hydrology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shen, Mingxi; Chen, Jie; Zhuan, Meijia; Chen, Hua; Xu, Chong-Yu; Xiong, Lihua

2018-01-01

Uncertainty estimation of climate change impacts on hydrology has received much attention in the research community. The choice of a global climate model (GCM) is usually considered as the largest contributor to the uncertainty of climate change impacts. The temporal variation of GCM uncertainty needs to be investigated for making long-term decisions to deal with climate change. Accordingly, this study investigated the temporal variation (mainly long-term) of uncertainty related to the choice of a GCM in predicting climate change impacts on hydrology by using multi-GCMs over multiple continuous future periods. Specifically, twenty CMIP5 GCMs under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios were adapted to adequately represent this uncertainty envelope, fifty-one 30-year future periods moving from 2021 to 2100 with 1-year interval were produced to express the temporal variation. Future climatic and hydrological regimes over all future periods were compared to those in the reference period (1971-2000) using a set of metrics, including mean and extremes. The periodicity of climatic and hydrological changes and their uncertainty were analyzed using wavelet analysis, while the trend was analyzed using Mann-Kendall trend test and regression analysis. The results showed that both future climate change (precipitation and temperature) and hydrological response predicted by the twenty GCMs were highly uncertain, and the uncertainty increased significantly over time. For example, the change of mean annual precipitation increased from 1.4% in 2021-2050 to 6.5% in 2071-2100 for RCP4.5 in terms of the median value of multi-models, but the projected uncertainty reached 21.7% in 2021-2050 and 25.1% in 2071-2100 for RCP4.5. The uncertainty under a high emission scenario (RCP8.5) was much larger than that under a relatively low emission scenario (RCP4.5). Almost all climatic and hydrological regimes and their uncertainty did not show significant periodicity at the P = .05 significance level, but their temporal variation could be well modeled by using the fourth-order polynomial. Overall, this study further emphasized the importance of using multiple GCMs for studying climate change impacts on hydrology. Furthermore, the temporal variation of uncertainty sourced from GCMs should be given more attention.

CMIP5 Scientific Gaps and Recommendations for CMIP6

DOE PAGES

Stouffer, R. J.; Eyring, V.; Meehl, G. A.; ...

2017-01-23

The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) is an ongoing coordinated international activity of numerical experimentation of unprecedented scope and impact on climate science. Its most recent phase, the fifth phase (CMIP5), has created nearly 2 PB of output from dozens of experiments performed by dozens of comprehensive climate models available to the climate science research community. In so doing, it has greatly advanced climate science. While CMIP5 has given answers to important science questions, with the help of a community survey we identify and motivate three broad topics here that guided the scientific framework of the next phase of CMIP,more » that is, CMIP6: (1) How does the Earth system respond to changes in forcing? (2) What are the origins and consequences of systematic model biases? (3) How can we assess future climate changes given internal climate variability, predictability, and uncertainties in scenarios? CMIP has demonstrated the power of idealized experiments to better understand how the climate system works. We expect that these idealized approaches will continue to contribute to CMIP6. The quantification of radiative forcings and responses was poor, and thus it requires new methods and experiments to address this gap. There are a number of systematic model biases that appear in all phases of CMIP that remain a major climate modeling challenge. In conclusion, these biases need increased attention to better understand their origins and consequences through targeted experiments. Improving understanding of the mechanisms’ underlying internal climate variability for more skillful decadal climate predictions and long-term projections remains another challenge for CMIP6.« less

CMIP5 Scientific Gaps and Recommendations for CMIP6

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stouffer, R. J.; Eyring, V.; Meehl, G. A.

The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) is an ongoing coordinated international activity of numerical experimentation of unprecedented scope and impact on climate science. Its most recent phase, the fifth phase (CMIP5), has created nearly 2 PB of output from dozens of experiments performed by dozens of comprehensive climate models available to the climate science research community. In so doing, it has greatly advanced climate science. While CMIP5 has given answers to important science questions, with the help of a community survey we identify and motivate three broad topics here that guided the scientific framework of the next phase of CMIP,more » that is, CMIP6: (1) How does the Earth system respond to changes in forcing? (2) What are the origins and consequences of systematic model biases? (3) How can we assess future climate changes given internal climate variability, predictability, and uncertainties in scenarios? CMIP has demonstrated the power of idealized experiments to better understand how the climate system works. We expect that these idealized approaches will continue to contribute to CMIP6. The quantification of radiative forcings and responses was poor, and thus it requires new methods and experiments to address this gap. There are a number of systematic model biases that appear in all phases of CMIP that remain a major climate modeling challenge. In conclusion, these biases need increased attention to better understand their origins and consequences through targeted experiments. Improving understanding of the mechanisms’ underlying internal climate variability for more skillful decadal climate predictions and long-term projections remains another challenge for CMIP6.« less

Regional climate assessment of precipitation and temperature in Southern Punjab (Pakistan) using SimCLIM climate model for different temporal scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amin, Asad; Nasim, Wajid; Mubeen, Muhammad; Sarwar, Saleem; Urich, Peter; Ahmad, Ashfaq; Wajid, Aftab; Khaliq, Tasneem; Rasul, Fahd; Hammad, Hafiz Mohkum; Rehmani, Muhammad Ishaq Asif; Mubarak, Hussani; Mirza, Nosheen; Wahid, Abdul; Ahamd, Shakeel; Fahad, Shah; Ullah, Abid; Khan, Mohammad Nauman; Ameen, Asif; Amanullah; Shahzad, Babar; Saud, Shah; Alharby, Hesham; Ata-Ul-Karim, Syed Tahir; Adnan, Muhammad; Islam, Faisal; Ali, Qazi Shoaib

2018-01-01

Unbalanced climate during the last decades has created spatially alarming and destructive situations in the world. Anomalies in temperature and precipitation enhance the risks for crop production in large agricultural region (especially the Southern Punjab) of Pakistan. Detailed analysis of historic weather data (1980-2011) record helped in creating baseline data to compare with model projection (SimCLIM) for regional level. Ensemble of 40 GCMs used for climatic projections with greenhouse gas (GHG) representative concentration pathways (RCP-4.5, 6.0, 8.5) was selected on the baseline comparison and used for 2025 and 2050 climate projection. Precipitation projected by ensemble and regional weather observatory at baseline showed highly unpredictable nature while both temperature extremes showed 95 % confidence level on a monthly projection. Percentage change in precipitation projected by model with RCP-4.5, RCP-6.0, and RCP-8.5 showed uncertainty 3.3 to 5.6 %, 2.9 to 5.2 %, and 3.6 to 7.9 % for 2025 and 2050, respectively. Percentage change of minimum temperature from base temperature showed that 5.1, 4.7, and 5.8 % for 2025 and 9.0, 8.1, and 12.0 % increase for projection year 2050 with RCP-4.5, 6.0, and 8.5 and maximum temperature 2.7, 2.5, and 3.0 % for 2025 and 4.7, 4.4, and 6.4 % for 2050 will be increased with RCP-4.5, 6.0, and 8.5, respectively. Uneven increase in precipitation and asymmetric increase in temperature extremes in future would also increase the risk associated with management of climatic uncertainties. Future climate projection will enable us for better risk management decisions.

Future Projections of Air Temperature and Precipitation for the CORDEX-MENA Domain by Using RegCM4.3.5

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ozturk, Tugba; Turp, M. Tufan; Türkeş, Murat; Kurnaz, M. Levent

2015-04-01

In this study, the projected changes for the periods of 2016 - 2035, 2046 - 2065, and 2081 - 2100 in the seasonal averages of air temperature and precipitation variables with respect to the reference period of 1981 - 2000 were examined for the Middle East and North Africa region. In this context, Regional Climate Model (RegCM4.3.5) of ICTP (International Centre for Theoretical Physics) was run by using two different global climate models. MPI-ESM-MR global climate model of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology and HadGEM2 of the Met Office Hadley Centre were dynamically downscaled to 50 km for the CORDEX-MENA domain. The projections were realized according to the RCP4.5 and the RCP8.5 emission scenarios of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change).

Realism of the Indian Ocean Dipole in CMIP5 models, and the Implication for Climate Projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weller, E.; Cai, W.; Cowan, T.

2012-12-01

An assessment of how well climate models simulate the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is undertaken using coupled models that have partaken in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Compared to CMIP3 models, no substantial improvement is evident in the simulation of the IOD pattern and/or amplitude during its peak season in austral spring (September-October-November, or SON). The majority of CMIP5 models generate a larger variance of sea surface temperature (SST) in the Sumatra-Java upwelling region and an IOD amplitude that is far greater than what is observed. Although the relationship between precipitation and the tropical Indian Ocean SST is well simulated, future projections of SON rainfall changes over IOD-influenced regions are intrinsically linked to the IOD-rainfall teleconnection and IOD amplitude in the model present-day climate. The diversity of the simulated IOD amplitudes in CMIP5 (and CMIP3) models which tend to be overly large, results in a wide range of future modelled SON rainfall trends over IOD-influenced regions. Our results highlight the importance of realistically simulating the present-day IOD properties and the caveat that needs to be exercised in interpreting climate projections in the IOD-affected regions.

The Mpi-M Aerosol Climatology (MAC)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kinne, S.

2014-12-01

Monthly gridded global data-sets for aerosol optical properties (AOD, SSA and g) and for aerosol microphysical properties (CCN and IN) offer a (less complex) alternate path to include aerosol radiative effects and aerosol impacts on cloud-microphysics in global simulations. Based on merging AERONET sun-/sky-photometer data onto background maps provided by AeroCom phase 1 modeling output and AERONET sun-/the MPI-M Aerosol Climatology (MAC) version 1 was developed and applied in IPCC simulations with ECHAM and as ancillary data-set in satellite-based global data-sets. An updated version 2 of this climatology will be presented now applying central values from the more recent AeroCom phase 2 modeling and utilizing the better global coverage of trusted sun-photometer data - including statistics from the Marine Aerosol network (MAN). Applications include spatial distributions of estimates for aerosol direct and aerosol indirect radiative effects.

Climate change impacts on crop yield in the Euro-Mediterranean region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Toreti, Andrea; Ceglar, Andrej; Dentener, Frank; Niemeyer, Stefan; Dosio, Alessandro; Fumagalli, Davide

2017-04-01

Agriculture is strongly influenced by climate variability, climate extremes and climate changes. Recent studies on past decades have identified and analysed the effects of climate variability and extremes on crop yields in the Euro-Mediterranean region. As these effects could be amplified in a changing climate context, it is essential to analyse available climate projections and investigate the possible impacts on European agriculture in terms of crop yield. In this study, five model runs from the Euro-CORDEX initiative under two scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) have been used. Climate model data have been bias corrected and then used to feed a mechanistic crop growth model. The crop model has been run under different settings to better sample the intrinsic uncertainties. Among the main results, it is worth to report a weak but significant and spatially homogeneous increase in potential wheat yield at mid-century (under a CO2 fertilisation effect scenario). While more complex changes seem to characterise potential maize yield, with large areas in the region showing a weak-to-moderate decrease.

Potential Impact of Climate Change on Streamflow of Major Ethiopian Rivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gizaw, M. S.; Zhang, S.; Biftu, G. F.; Gan, T. Y.; Tan, X.; Moges, S. A.; Koivusalo, H.

2017-12-01

In this study, HSPF (Hydrologic Simulation Program-FORTRAN) was used to analyze the potential impact of climate change on the streamflow of four major river basins in Ethiopia: Awash, Baro, Genale and Tekeze. The calibrated and validated HSPF model was forced with daily climate data of 10 CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5) Global Climate Models (GCMs) for the 1971-2000 control period and the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate projections of 2041-2070 (2050s) and 2071-2100 (2080s). The ensemble median of these 10 GCMs projects the temperature in the four study areas to increase by about 2.3 ˚C (3.3 ˚C) in 2050s (2080s) whereas the mean annual precipitation is projected to increase by about 6% (9%) in 2050s (2080s). This results in about 3% (6%) increase in the projected annual streamflow in Awash, Baro and Tekeze rivers whereas the annual streamflow of Genale river is projected to increase by about 18% (33%) in the 2050s (2080s). However, such projected increase in the mean annual streamflow due to increasing precipitation over Ethiopia contradicts the decreasing trends in mean annual precipitation observed in recent decades. Regional climate models of high resolutions could provide more realistic climate projections for Ethiopia's complex topography, thus reducing the uncertainties in future streamflow projections.

Ensemble climate projections of mean and extreme rainfall over Vietnam

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raghavan, S. V.; Vu, M. T.; Liong, S. Y.

2017-01-01

A systematic ensemble high resolution climate modelling study over Vietnam has been performed using the PRECIS model developed by the Hadley Center in UK. A 5 member subset of the 17-member Perturbed Physics Ensembles (PPE) of the Quantifying Uncertainty in Model Predictions (QUMP) project were simulated and analyzed. The PRECIS model simulations were conducted at a horizontal resolution of 25 km for the baseline period 1961-1990 and a future climate period 2061-2090 under scenario A1B. The results of model simulations show that the model was able to reproduce the mean state of climate over Vietnam when compared to observations. The annual cycles and seasonal averages of precipitation over different sub-regions of Vietnam show the ability of the model in also reproducing the observed peak and magnitude of monthly rainfall. The climate extremes of precipitation were also fairly well captured. Projections of future climate show both increases and decreases in the mean climate over different regions of Vietnam. The analyses of future extreme rainfall using the STARDEX precipitation indices show an increase in 90th percentile precipitation (P90p) over the northern provinces (15-25%) and central highland (5-10%) and over southern Vietnam (up to 5%). The total number of wet days (Prcp) indicates a decrease of about 5-10% all over Vietnam. Consequently, an increase in the wet day rainfall intensity (SDII), is likely inferring that the projected rainfall would be much more severe and intense which have the potential to cause flooding in some regions. Risks due to extreme drought also exist in other regions where the number of wet days decreases. In addition, the maximum 5 day consecutive rainfall (R5d) increases by 20-25% over northern Vietnam but decreases in a similar range over the central and southern Vietnam. These results have strong implications for the management water resources, agriculture, bio diversity and economy and serve as some useful findings to be considered by the policy makers within a wider range of climate uncertainties.

Assessment of local and regional climate signals in water stable isotopes and chemistry records from new high resolution shallow ice cores in Adélie Land, Antarctica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goursaud, Sentia; Masson Delmotte, Valerie; Preunkert, Susanne; Legrand, Michel; Werner, Martin

2017-04-01

Documenting climatic variations in Antarctica is important to characterize natural climate variability and to provide a long-term context for recent changes. For this purpose, ice cores are unique archives providing a variety of proxy records. While water stable isotopes are commonly used to reconstruct past temperatures, their variability may also reflect changes in moisture origin and evaporation conditions. Further information on the origin of air masses can be obtained from aerosols, through the chemical analyses of ice cores. In high accumulation regions, such as the coastal Adélie Land area, the combination of water stable isotope and chemical records is crucial to date ice cores by annual layer counting and assess the associated uncertainty on annual accumulation rates, but may also help to unveil past changes in regional atmospheric circulation. In order to document accumulation in the area from Dumont d'Urville station to the central Antarctic plateau, towards Dome C, the Agence Nationale de la Recherche ASUMA project (Improving the Accuracy of the Surface Mass Balance of Antarctica, 2014-2018) initiated new field campaigns and was successful in obtaining a network of new shallow ice cores in a previously undocumented region. Here, we will present new results from two shallow ice cores drilled in Adélie Land, the S1C1 ice core (67.71 °S, 139.83 °E ,279 m a.s.l.) drilled in January 2007 and the TA192A ice core (66.78 °S, 139.56 °E, 602 m a.s.l.). We have dated the ice cores by combining multi-parameter annual layer counting using major ions and δ18O, as well as reference horizons. This allowed us to estimate very contrasted accumulation rates (respectively 21.8 ± 6.9 cm w.e. y-1 and 73.38±21.9 cm w.e. y-1), averaged respectively over the period from 1946 to 2006 and from 1998 to 2014 . As a result, we have reconstructed annual accumulation rates, isotopic and ion time series, and investigated their characteristics (mean values, trends and periodicities). The high accumulation rates enables us to compare the ice core seasonal variations in δ18O and deuterium excess with outputs from the ECHAM5-wiso atmospheric general circulation model equipped with water stable isotopes and nudged to ERA reanalyses. We have investigated through statistical analyses the relationships between inter-annual variations in our new ice core records with local climatic parameters (near-surface temperature, wind speed and direction, local sea-ice extent), and with large-scale modes of variability (ENSO and PSA2). The first results rule out any significant multi-decadal trend and evidence decadal periodicities already documented in instrumental records. Remarkable years identified in one shallow ice core do not coincide with those identified in the other ice core. No significant correlation with local or regional climate parameters is identified. This suggests that either the ice core signals are dominated by changes in regional atmospheric circulation or that they are strongly affected very local effects of deposition and post deposition, in an area marked by strong katabatic winds.

Understanding Water-Energy-Ecology Nexus from an Integrated Earth-Human System Perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, H. Y.; Zhang, X.; Wan, W.; Zhuang, Y.; Hejazi, M. I.; Leung, L. R.

2017-12-01

Both Earth and human systems exert notable controls on streamflow and stream temperature that influence energy production and ecosystem health. An integrated water model representing river processes and reservoir regulations has been developed and coupled to a land surface model and an integrated assessment model of energy, land, water, and socioeconomics to investigate the energy-water-ecology nexus in the context of climate change and water management. Simulations driven by two climate change projections following the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 radiative forcing scenarios, with and without water management, are analyzed to evaluate the individual and combined effects of climate change and water management on streamflow and stream temperature in the U.S. The simulations revealed important impacts of climate change and water management on hydrological droughts. The simulations also revealed the dynamics of competition between changes in water demand and water availability in the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios that influence streamflow and stream temperature, with important consequences to thermoelectricity production and future survival of juvenile Salmon. The integrated water model is being implemented to the Accelerated Climate Modeling for Energy (ACME), a coupled Earth System Model, to enable future investigations of the energy-water-ecology nexus in the integrated Earth-Human system.

Earth system modelling on system-level heterogeneous architectures: EMAC (version 2.42) on the Dynamical Exascale Entry Platform (DEEP)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Christou, Michalis; Christoudias, Theodoros; Morillo, Julián; Alvarez, Damian; Merx, Hendrik

2016-09-01

We examine an alternative approach to heterogeneous cluster-computing in the many-core era for Earth system models, using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Hamburg (ECHAM)/Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy) Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) model as a pilot application on the Dynamical Exascale Entry Platform (DEEP). A set of autonomous coprocessors interconnected together, called Booster, complements a conventional HPC Cluster and increases its computing performance, offering extra flexibility to expose multiple levels of parallelism and achieve better scalability. The EMAC model atmospheric chemistry code (Module Efficiently Calculating the Chemistry of the Atmosphere (MECCA)) was taskified with an offload mechanism implemented using OmpSs directives. The model was ported to the MareNostrum 3 supercomputer to allow testing with Intel Xeon Phi accelerators on a production-size machine. The changes proposed in this paper are expected to contribute to the eventual adoption of Cluster-Booster division and Many Integrated Core (MIC) accelerated architectures in presently available implementations of Earth system models, towards exploiting the potential of a fully Exascale-capable platform.

Ozone impacts of gas-aerosol uptake in global chemistry transport models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stadtler, Scarlet; Simpson, David; Schröder, Sabine; Taraborrelli, Domenico; Bott, Andreas; Schultz, Martin

2018-03-01

The impact of six heterogeneous gas-aerosol uptake reactions on tropospheric ozone and nitrogen species was studied using two chemical transport models, the Meteorological Synthesizing Centre-West of the European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme (EMEP MSC-W) and the European Centre Hamburg general circulation model combined with versions of the Hamburg Aerosol Model and Model for Ozone and Related chemical Tracers (ECHAM-HAMMOZ). Species undergoing heterogeneous reactions in both models include N2O5, NO3, NO2, O3, HNO3, and HO2. Since heterogeneous reactions take place at the aerosol surface area, the modelled surface area density (Sa) of both models was compared to a satellite product retrieving the surface area. This comparison shows a good agreement in global pattern and especially the capability of both models to capture the extreme aerosol loadings in east Asia. The impact of the heterogeneous reactions was evaluated by the simulation of a reference run containing all heterogeneous reactions and several sensitivity runs. One reaction was turned off in each sensitivity run to compare it with the reference run. The analysis of the sensitivity runs confirms that the globally most important heterogeneous reaction is the one of N2O5. Nevertheless, NO2, HNO3, and HO2 heterogeneous reactions gain relevance particularly in east Asia due to the presence of high NOx concentrations and high Sa in the same region. The heterogeneous reaction of O3 itself on dust is of minor relevance compared to the other heterogeneous reactions. The impacts of the N2O5 reactions show strong seasonal variations, with the biggest impacts on O3 in springtime when photochemical reactions are active and N2O5 levels still high. Evaluation of the models with northern hemispheric ozone surface observations yields a better agreement of the models with observations in terms of concentration levels, variability, and temporal correlations at most sites when the heterogeneous reactions are incorporated. Our results are loosely consistent with results from earlier studies, although the magnitude of changes induced by N2O5 reaction is at the low end of estimates, which seems to fit a trend, whereby the more recent the study the lower the impacts of these reactions.

Impact of Aerosol Processing on Orographic Clouds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pousse-Nottelmann, Sara; Zubler, Elias M.; Lohmann, Ulrike

2010-05-01

Aerosol particles undergo significant modifications during their residence time in the atmosphere. Physical processes like coagulation, coating and water uptake, and aqueous surface chemistry alter the aerosol size distribution and composition. At this, clouds play a primary role as physical and chemical processing inside cloud droplets contributes considerably to the changes in aerosol particles. A previous study estimates that on global average atmospheric particles are cycled three times through a cloud before being removed from the atmosphere [1]. An explicit and detailed treatment of cloud-borne particles has been implemented in the regional weather forecast and climate model COSMO-CLM. The employed model version includes a two-moment cloud microphysical scheme [2] that has been coupled to the aerosol microphysical scheme M7 [3] as described by Muhlbauer and Lohmann, 2008 [4]. So far, the formation, transfer and removal of cloud-borne aerosol number and mass were not considered in the model. Following the parameterization for cloud-borne particles developed by Hoose et al., 2008 [5], distinction between in-droplet and in-crystal particles is made to more physically account for processes in mixed-phase clouds, such as the Wegener-Bergeron-Findeisen process and contact and immersion freezing. In our model, this approach has been extended to allow for aerosol particles in five different hydrometeors: cloud droplets, rain drops, ice crystals, snow flakes and graupel. We account for nucleation scavenging, freezing and melting processes, autoconversion, accretion, aggregation, riming and selfcollection, collisions between interstitial aerosol particles and hydrometeors, ice multiplication, sedimentation, evaporation and sublimation. The new scheme allows an evaluation of the cloud cycling of aerosol particles by tracking the particles even when scavenged into hydrometeors. Global simulations of aerosol processing in clouds have recently been conducted by Hoose et al. [6]. Our investigation regarding the influence of aerosol processing will focus on the regional scale using a cloud-system resolving model with a much higher resolution. Emphasis will be placed on orographic mixed-phase precipitation. Different two-dimensional simulations of idealized orographic clouds will be conducted to estimate the effect of aerosol processing on orographic cloud formation and precipitation. Here, cloud lifetime, location and extent as well as the cloud type will be of particular interest. In a supplementary study, the new parameterization will be compared to observations of total and interstitial aerosol concentrations and size distribution at the remote high alpine research station Jungfraujoch in Switzerland. In addition, our simulations will be compared to recent simulations of aerosol processing in warm, mixed-phase and cold clouds, which have been carried out at the location of Jungfraujoch station [5]. References: [1] Pruppacher & Jaenicke (1995), The processing of water vapor and aerosols by atmospheric clouds, a global estimate, Atmos. Res., 38, 283295. [2] Seifert & Beheng (2006), A two-moment microphysics parameterization for mixed-phase clouds. Part 1: Model description, Meteorol. Atmos. Phys., 92, 4566. [3] Vignati et al. (2004), An efficient size-resolved aerosol microphysics module for large-scale transport models, J. Geophys. Res., 109, D22202 [4] Muhlbauer & Lohmann (2008), Sensitivity studies of the role of aerosols in warm-phase orographic precipitation in different flow regimes, J. Atmos. Sci., 65, 25222542. [5] Hoose et al. (2008), Aerosol processing in mixed-phase clouds in ECHAM5HAM: Model description and comparison to observations, J. Geophys. Res., 113, D071210. [6] Hoose et al. (2008), Global simulations of aerosol processing in clouds, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 8, 69396963.

Low degree Earth's gravity coefficients determined from different space geodetic observations and climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wińska, Małgorzata; Nastula, Jolanta

2017-04-01

Large scale mass redistribution and its transport within the Earth system causes changes in the Earth's rotation in space, gravity field and Earth's ellipsoid shape. These changes are observed in the ΔC21, ΔS21, and ΔC20 spherical harmonics gravity coefficients, which are proportional to the mass load-induced Earth rotational excitations. In this study, linear trend, decadal, inter-annual, and seasonal variations of low degree spherical harmonics coefficients of Earth's gravity field, determined from different space geodetic techniques, Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE), satellite laser ranging (SLR), Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS), Earth rotation, and climate models, are examined. In this way, the contribution of each measurement technique to interpreting the low degree surface mass density of the Earth is shown. Especially, we evaluate an usefulness of several climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) to determine the low degree Earth's gravity coefficients using GRACE satellite observations. To do that, Terrestrial Water Storage (TWS) changes from several CMIP5 climate models are determined and then these simulated data are compared with the GRACE observations. Spherical harmonics ΔC21, ΔS21, and ΔC20 changes are calculated as the sum of atmosphere and ocean mass effect (GAC values) taken from GRACE and a land surface hydrological estimate from the selected CMIP5 climate models. Low degree Stokes coefficients of the surface mass density determined from GRACE, SLR, GNSS, Earth rotation measurements and climate models are compared to each other in order to assess their consistency. The comparison is done by using different types of statistical and signal processing methods.

The IS-ENES climate4impact portal: bridging the CMIP5 and CORDEX data to impact users

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Som de Cerff, Wim; Plieger, Maarten; Page, Christian; Tatarinova, Natalia; Hutjes, Ronald; de Jong, Fokke; Bärring, Lars; Sjökvist, Elin; Vega Saldarriaga, Manuel; Santiago Cofiño Gonzalez, Antonio

2015-04-01

The aim of climate4impact (climate4impact.eu) is to enhance the use of Climate Research Data and to enhance the interaction with climate effect/impact communities. The portal is based on 17 impact use cases from 5 different European countries, and is evaluated by a user panel consisting of use case owners. It has been developed within the IS-ENES European project and is currently operated and further developed in the IS ENES2 project. As the climate impact community is very broad, the focus is mainly on the scientific impact community. Climate4impact is connected to the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) nodes containing global climate model data (GCM data) from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and regional climate model data (RCM) data from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX). This global network of climate model data centers offers services for data description, discovery and download. The climate4impact portal connects to these services using OpenID, and offers a user interface for searching, visualizing and downloading global climate model data and more. A challenging task is to describe the available model data and how it can be used. The portal informs users about possible caveats when using climate model data. All impact use cases are described in the documentation section, using highlighted keywords pointing to detailed information in the glossary. Climate4impact currently has two main objectives. The first one is to work on a web interface which automatically generates a graphical user interface on WPS endpoints. The WPS calculates climate indices and subset data using OpenClimateGIS/icclim on data stored in ESGF data nodes. Data is then transmitted from ESGF nodes over secured OpenDAP and becomes available in a new, per user, secured OpenDAP server. The results can then be visualized again using ADAGUC WMS. Dedicated wizards for processing of climate indices will be developed in close collaboration with users. The second one is to expose climate4impact services, so as to offer standardized services which can be used by other portals (like the future Copernicus platform, developed in the EU FP7 CLIPC project). This has the advantage to add interoperability between several portals, as well as to enable the design of specific portals aimed at different impact communities, either thematic or national. In the presentation the following subjects will be detailed: - Lessons learned developing climate4impact.eu - Download: Directly from ESGF nodes and other THREDDS catalogs - Connection with the downscaling portal of the university of Cantabria - Experiences on the question and answer site via Askbot - Visualization: Visualize data from ESGF data nodes using ADAGUC Web Map Services. - Processing: Transform data, subset, export into other formats, and perform climate indices calculations using Web Processing Services implemented by PyWPS, based on NCAR NCPP OpenClimateGIS and IS-ENES2 icclim. - Security: Login using OpenID for access to the ESGF data nodes. The ESGF works in conjunction with several external websites and systems. The climate4impact portal uses X509 based short lived credentials, generated on behalf of the user with a MyProxy service. Single Sign-on (SSO) is used to make these websites and systems work together. - Discovery: Facetted search based on e.g. variable name, model and institute using the ESGF search services. A catalog browser allows for browsing through CMIP5 and any other climate model data catalogues (e.g. ESSENCE, EOBS, UNIDATA).

Towards Better Simulation of US Maize Yield Responses to Climate in the Community Earth System Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peng, B.; Guan, K.; Chen, M.; Lawrence, D. M.; Jin, Z.; Bernacchi, C.; Ainsworth, E. A.; DeLucia, E. H.; Lombardozzi, D. L.; Lu, Y.

2017-12-01

Global food security is undergoing continuing pressure from increased population and climate change despites the potential advancement in breeding and management technologies. Earth system models (ESMs) are essential tools to study the impacts of historical and future climate on regional and global food production, as well as to assess the effectiveness of possible adaptations and their potential feedback to climate. Here we developed an improved maize representation within the Community Earth System Model (CESM) by combining the strengths of both the Community Land Model version 4.5 (CLM4.5) and the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM) models. Specifically, we modified the maize planting scheme, incorporated the phenology scheme adopted from the APSIM model, added a new carbon allocation scheme into CLM4.5, and improved the estimation of canopy structure parameters including leaf area index (LAI) and canopy height. Unique features of the new model (CLM-APSIM) include more detailed phenology stages, an explicit implementation of the impacts of various abiotic environmental stresses (including nitrogen, water, temperature and heat stresses) on maize phenology and carbon allocation, as well as an explicit simulation of grain number and grain size. We conducted a regional simulation of this new model over the US Corn Belt during 1990 to 2010. The simulated maize yield as well as its responses to climate (growing season mean temperature and precipitation) are benchmarked with data from UADA NASS statistics. Our results show that the CLM-APSIM model outperforms the CLM4.5 in simulating county-level maize yield production and reproduces more realistic yield responses to climate variations than CLM4.5. However, some critical processes (such as crop failure due to frost and inundation and suboptimal growth condition due to biotic stresses) are still missing in both CLM-APSIM and CLM4.5, making the simulated yield responses to climate slightly deviate from the reality. Our results demonstrate that with improved paramterization of crop growth, the ESMs can be powerful tools for realistically simulating agricultural production, which is gaining increasing interests and critical to study of global food security and food-energy-water nexus.

Trend analysis of watershed-scale precipitation over Northern California by means of dynamically-downscaled CMIP5 future climate projections.

PubMed

Ishida, K; Gorguner, M; Ercan, A; Trinh, T; Kavvas, M L

2017-08-15

The impacts of climate change on watershed-scale precipitation through the 21st century were investigated over eight study watersheds in Northern California based on dynamically downscaled CMIP5 future climate projections from three GCMs (CCSM4, HadGEM2-ES, and MIROC5) under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 future climate scenarios. After evaluating the modeling capability of the WRF model, the six future climate projections were dynamically downscaled by means of the WRF model over Northern California at 9km grid resolution and hourly temporal resolution during a 94-year period (2006-2100). The biases in the model simulations were corrected, and basin-average precipitation over the eight study watersheds was calculated from the dynamically downscaled precipitation data. Based on the dynamically downscaled basin-average precipitation, trends in annual depth and annual peaks of basin-average precipitation during the 21st century were analyzed over the eight study watersheds. The analyses in this study indicate that there may be differences between trends of annual depths and annual peaks of watershed-scale precipitation during the 21st century. Furthermore, trends in watershed-scale precipitation under future climate conditions may be different for different watersheds depending on their location and topography even if they are in the same region. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Modeling aspen responses to climatic warming and insect defoliation in western Canada

Treesearch

E. H. Ted Hogg

2001-01-01

Effects of climate change at three aspen sites in Saskatchewan were explored using a climate-driven model that includes insect defoliation. A simulated warming of 4-5 °C caused complete mortality due to drought at all three sites. A simulated warming of 2-2.5 °C caused complete mortality of aspen at the parkland site, while aspen growth at two boreal sites showed...

Global simulation of aromatic volatile organic compounds in the atmosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cabrera Perez, David; Taraborrelli, Domenico; Pozzer, Andrea

2015-04-01

Among the large number of chemical compounds in the atmosphere, the organic group plays a key role in the tropospheric chemistry. Specifically the subgroup called aromatics is of great interest. Aromatics are the predominant trace gases in urban areas due to high emissions, primarily by vehicle exhausts and fuel evaporation. They are also present in areas where biofuel is used (i.e residential wood burning). Emissions of aromatic compounds are a substantial fraction of the total emissions of the volatile organic compounds (VOC). Impact of aromatics on human health is very important, as they do not only contribute to the ozone formation in the urban environment, but they are also highly toxic themselves, especially in the case of benzene which is able to trigger a range of illness under long exposure, and of nitro-phenols which cause detrimental for humans and vegetation even at very low concentrations. The aim of this work is to assess the atmospheric impacts of aromatic compounds on the global scale. The main goals are: lifetime and budget estimation, mixing ratios distribution, net effect on ozone production and OH loss for the most emitted aromatic compounds (benzene, toluene, xylenes, ethylbenzene, styrene and trimethylbenzenes). For this purpose, we use the numerical chemistry and climate simulation ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) model to build the global atmospheric budget for the most emitted and predominant aromatic compounds in the atmosphere. A set of emissions was prepared in order to include biomass burning, vegetation and anthropogenic sources of aromatics into the model. A chemical mechanism based on the Master Chemical Mechanism (MCM) was developed to describe the chemical oxidation in the gas phase of these aromatic compounds. MCM have been reduced in terms of number of chemical equation and species in order to make it affordable in a 3D model. Additionally other features have been added, for instance the production of HONO via ortho-nitrophenols photolysis. The model results are compared with observations from different surface and aircraft campaigns in order to estimate the accuracy of the model.

The climate4impact portal: bridging CMIP5 data to impact users

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Som de Cerff, Wim; Plieger, Maarten; Page, Christian; Hutjes, Ronald; de Jong, Fokke; Barring, Lars; Sjökvist, Elin

2013-04-01

Together with seven other partners (CERFACS, CNRS-IPSL, SMHI, INHGA, CMCC, WUR, MF-CNRM), KNMI is involved in the FP7 project IS-ENES (http://is.enes.org), which supports the European climate modeling infrastructure, in the work package 'Bridging Climate Research Data and the Needs of the Impact Community'. The aim of this work package is to enhance the use of climate model data and to enhance the interaction with climate effect/impact communities. The portal is based on 17 impact use cases from 5 different European countries, and is evaluated by a user panel consisting of use case owners. As the climate impact community is very broad, the focus is mainly on the scientific impact community. This work has resulted in a prototype portal, the ENES portal interface for climate impact communities, that can be visited at www.climate4impact.eu. The portal is connected to all Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) nodes containing global climate model data (GCM data) from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and later from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX). This global network of all major climate model data centers offers services for data description, discovery and download. The climate4impact portal connects to these services and offers a user interface for searching, visualizing and downloading global climate model data and more. A challenging task was to describe the available model data and how it can be used. The portal tries to inform users about possible caveats when using model data. All impact use cases are described in the documentation section, using highlighted keywords pointing to detailed information in the glossary. The current portal is a Prototype. It is built to explore state-of-art technologies to provide improved access to climate model data. The prototype will be evaluated and is the basis for development of an operational service. The portal and services provided will be sustained and supported during the development of these operational services (2013-2016) in the second phase of the FP7 IS-ENES project, ISENES2. In this presentation the architecture and following items will be detailed: • Security: Login using OpenID for access to the ESGF data nodes. The ESGF works in conjunction with several external websites and systems. The portal provides access to several distributed archives, most importantly the ESGF nodes. Single Sign-on (SSO) is used to let these websites and systems work together. • Discovery: Intelligent search based on e.g. variable name, model, institute. A catalog browser allows for browsing through CMIP5 and other climate model data catalogues (e.g. ESSENCE, EOBS, UNIDATA). • Download: Directly from ESGF nodes and other THREDDS catalogs • Visualization: Visualize any data directly on a map (ADAGUC Map services). • Transformation: Transform your data into other formats, perform basic calculations and extractions

Which climate change path are we following? Bad news from Scots pine

PubMed Central

D’Andrea, Ettore; Rezaie, Negar; Cammarano, Mario; Matteucci, Giorgio

2017-01-01

Current expectations on future climate derive from coordinated experiments, which compile many climate models for sampling the entire uncertainty related to emission scenarios, initial conditions, and modelling process. Quantifying this uncertainty is important for taking decisions that are robust under a wide range of possible future conditions. Nevertheless, if uncertainty is too large, it can prevent from planning specific and effective measures. For this reason, reducing the spectrum of the possible scenarios to a small number of one or a few models that actually represent the climate pathway influencing natural ecosystems would substantially increase our planning capacity. Here we adopt a multidisciplinary approach based on the comparison of observed and expected spatial patterns of response to climate change in order to identify which specific models, among those included in the CMIP5, catch the real climate variation driving the response of natural ecosystems. We used dendrochronological analyses for determining the geographic pattern of recent growth trends for three European species of trees. At the same time, we modelled the climatic niche for the same species and forecasted the suitability variation expected across Europe under each different GCM. Finally, we estimated how well each GCM explains the real response of ecosystems, by comparing the expected variation with the observed growth trends. Doing this, we identified four climatic models that are coherent with the observed trends. These models are close to the highest range limit of the climatic variations expected by the ensemble of the CMIP5 models, suggesting that current predictions of climate change impacts on ecosystems could be underestimated. PMID:29252985

Which climate change path are we following? Bad news from Scots pine.

PubMed

Bombi, Pierluigi; D'Andrea, Ettore; Rezaie, Negar; Cammarano, Mario; Matteucci, Giorgio

2017-01-01

Current expectations on future climate derive from coordinated experiments, which compile many climate models for sampling the entire uncertainty related to emission scenarios, initial conditions, and modelling process. Quantifying this uncertainty is important for taking decisions that are robust under a wide range of possible future conditions. Nevertheless, if uncertainty is too large, it can prevent from planning specific and effective measures. For this reason, reducing the spectrum of the possible scenarios to a small number of one or a few models that actually represent the climate pathway influencing natural ecosystems would substantially increase our planning capacity. Here we adopt a multidisciplinary approach based on the comparison of observed and expected spatial patterns of response to climate change in order to identify which specific models, among those included in the CMIP5, catch the real climate variation driving the response of natural ecosystems. We used dendrochronological analyses for determining the geographic pattern of recent growth trends for three European species of trees. At the same time, we modelled the climatic niche for the same species and forecasted the suitability variation expected across Europe under each different GCM. Finally, we estimated how well each GCM explains the real response of ecosystems, by comparing the expected variation with the observed growth trends. Doing this, we identified four climatic models that are coherent with the observed trends. These models are close to the highest range limit of the climatic variations expected by the ensemble of the CMIP5 models, suggesting that current predictions of climate change impacts on ecosystems could be underestimated.

The impact of past and future climate change on global human mortality due to ozone and PM2.5 outdoor air pollution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silva, R.; West, J.; Anenberg, S.; Lamarque, J.; Shindell, D. T.; Bergmann, D. J.; Berntsen, T.; Cameron-Smith, P. J.; Collins, B.; Ghan, S. J.; Josse, B.; Nagashima, T.; Naik, V.; Plummer, D.; Rodriguez, J. M.; Szopa, S.; Zeng, G.

2012-12-01

Climate change can adversely affect air quality, through changes in meteorology, atmospheric chemistry, and emissions. Future changes in air pollutant emissions will also profoundly influence air quality. These changes in air quality can affect human health, as exposure to ground-level ozone and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) has been associated with premature human mortality. Here we will quantify the global mortality impacts of past and future climate change, considering the effects of climate change on air quality isolated from emission changes. The Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP) has simulated the past and future surface concentrations of ozone and PM2.5 from each of several GCMs, for emissions from 1850 ("preindustrial") to 2000 ("present-day"), and for the IPCC AR5 Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios to 2100. We will use ozone and PM2.5 concentrations from simulations from five or more global models of atmospheric dynamics and chemistry, for a base year (present-day), pre-industrial conditions, and future scenarios, considering changes in climate and emissions. We will assess the mortality impacts of past climate change by using one simulation ensemble with present emissions and climate and one with present emissions but 1850 climate. We will similarly quantify the potential impacts of future climate change under the four RCP scenarios in 2030, 2050 and 2100. All model outputs will be regridded to the same resolution to estimate multi-model medians and range in each grid cell. Resulting premature deaths will be calculated using these medians along with epidemiologically-derived concentration-response functions, and present-day or future projections of population and baseline mortality rates, considering aging and transitioning disease rates over time. The spatial distributions of current and future global premature mortalities due to ozone and PM2.5 outdoor air pollution will be presented separately. These results will strengthen our understanding of the impacts of climate change today, and in future years considering different plausible scenarios.

Modeling and Understanding the Mass Balance of Himalayan Glaciers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rengaraju, S.; Achutarao, K. M.

2017-12-01

Changes in glaciers are among the most visible manifestations of a changing climate. Retreating glaciers have significant impacts on global sea-level rise and stream flow of rivers. Modeling the response of glaciers to climate change is important for many reasons including predicting changes in global sea level and water resources. The mass balance of a glacier provides a robust way of ascertaining whether there has been a net loss or gain of ice from the glacier. The mass balance reflects all of the meteorological forcing of the glacier - from the accumulation of snow and the combined losses from ablation and sublimation. The glaciers in the Himalayan region are considered sensitive to climate change and their fate under climate change is critical to the billions of humans that rely on rivers originating from these glaciers. Owing to complex terrain and harsh climate, Himalayan glaciers have historically been poorly monitored and this makes it harder to understand and predict their fate.In this study we model the observed mass balance of Himalayan glaciers using the methods of Radic and Hock (2011) and analyze the response to future changes in climate based on the model projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase-5 (CMIP5; Taylor et al., 2012). We make use of available observations of mass balance from various sources for 14 glaciers across the Himalayas. These glaciers are located across distinct climatic conditions - from the Karakoram and Hindu Kush in the West that are fed by winter precipitation caused by westerly disturbances to the Eastern Himalayas where the summer monsoon provides the bulk of the precipitation. For the historical observed period, we use the ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40) for temperature and VASClimO (GPCC) data at 2.5°x2.5° resolution to calibrate the mass balance model. We evaluate the CMIP5 model simulations for their fidelity in capturing the distinct climatic conditions across the Himalayas in order to select suitable models to study future response of the glaciers in this region. We also quantify the range and sources of uncertainty in projected changes.

Regionalisation of statistical model outputs creating gridded data sets for Germany

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Höpp, Simona Andrea; Rauthe, Monika; Deutschländer, Thomas

2016-04-01

The goal of the German research program ReKliEs-De (regional climate projection ensembles for Germany, http://.reklies.hlug.de) is to distribute robust information about the range and the extremes of future climate for Germany and its neighbouring river catchment areas. This joint research project is supported by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) and was initiated by the German Federal States. The Project results are meant to support the development of adaptation strategies to mitigate the impacts of future climate change. The aim of our part of the project is to adapt and transfer the regionalisation methods of the gridded hydrological data set (HYRAS) from daily station data to the station based statistical regional climate model output of WETTREG (regionalisation method based on weather patterns). The WETTREG model output covers the period of 1951 to 2100 with a daily temporal resolution. For this, we generate a gridded data set of the WETTREG output for precipitation, air temperature and relative humidity with a spatial resolution of 12.5 km x 12.5 km, which is common for regional climate models. Thus, this regionalisation allows comparing statistical to dynamical climate model outputs. The HYRAS data set was developed by the German Meteorological Service within the German research program KLIWAS (www.kliwas.de) and consists of daily gridded data for Germany and its neighbouring river catchment areas. It has a spatial resolution of 5 km x 5 km for the entire domain for the hydro-meteorological elements precipitation, air temperature and relative humidity and covers the period of 1951 to 2006. After conservative remapping the HYRAS data set is also convenient for the validation of climate models. The presentation will consist of two parts to present the actual state of the adaptation of the HYRAS regionalisation methods to the statistical regional climate model WETTREG: First, an overview of the HYRAS data set and the regionalisation methods for precipitation (REGNIE method based on a combination of multiple linear regression with 5 predictors and inverse distance weighting), air temperature and relative humidity (optimal interpolation) will be given. Finally, results of the regionalisation of WETTREG model output will be shown.

Projecting climate-driven increases in North American fire activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, D.; Morton, D. C.; Collatz, G. J.

2013-12-01

Climate regulates fire activity through controls on vegetation productivity (fuels), lightning ignitions, and conditions governing fire spread. In many regions of the world, human management also influences the timing, duration, and extent of fire activity. These coupled interactions between human and natural systems make fire a complex component of the Earth system. Satellite data provide valuable information on the spatial and temporal dynamics of recent fire activity, as active fires, burned area, and land cover information can be combined to separate wildfires from intentional burning for agriculture and forestry. Here, we combined satellite-derived burned area data with land cover and climate data to assess fire-climate relationships in North America between 2000-2012. We used the latest versions of the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED) burned area product and Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) climate data to develop regional relationships between burned area and potential evaporation (PE), an integrated dryness metric. Logistic regression models were developed to link burned area with PE and individual climate variables during and preceding the fire season, and optimal models were selected based on Akaike Information Criterion (AIC). Overall, our model explained 85% of the variance in burned area since 2000 across North America. Fire-climate relationships from the era of satellite observations provide a blueprint for potential changes in fire activity under scenarios of climate change. We used that blueprint to evaluate potential changes in fire activity over the next 50 years based on twenty models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). All models suggest an increase of PE under low and high emissions scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5, respectively), with largest increases in projected burned area across the western US and central Canada. Overall, near-term climate projections point to pronounced changes in fire season length, total burned area, and the frequency of extreme events across North America by 2050.

Technical Note: The Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy) - a new approach towards Earth System Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jöckel, P.; Sander, R.; Kerkweg, A.; Tost, H.; Lelieveld, J.

2005-02-01

The development of a comprehensive Earth System Model (ESM) to study the interactions between chemical, physical, and biological processes, requires coupling of the different domains (land, ocean, atmosphere, ...). One strategy is to link existing domain-specific models with a universal coupler, i.e. an independent standalone program organizing the communication between other programs. In many cases, however, a much simpler approach is more feasible. We have developed the Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy). It comprises (1) a modular interface structure to connect to a , (2) an extendable set of such for miscellaneous processes, and (3) a coding standard. MESSy is therefore not a coupler in the classical sense, but exchanges data between a and several within one comprehensive executable. The internal complexity of the is controllable in a transparent and user friendly way. This provides remarkable new possibilities to study feedback mechanisms (by two-way coupling). Note that the MESSy and the coupler approach can be combined. For instance, an atmospheric model implemented according to the MESSy standard could easily be coupled to an ocean model by means of an external coupler. The vision is to ultimately form a comprehensive ESM which includes a large set of submodels, and a base model which contains only a central clock and runtime control. This can be reached stepwise, since each process can be included independently. Starting from an existing model, process submodels can be reimplemented according to the MESSy standard. This procedure guarantees the availability of a state-of-the-art model for scientific applications at any time of the development. In principle, MESSy can be implemented into any kind of model, either global or regional. So far, the MESSy concept has been applied to the general circulation model ECHAM5 and a number of process boxmodels.

NWP model forecast skill optimization via closure parameter variations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Järvinen, H.; Ollinaho, P.; Laine, M.; Solonen, A.; Haario, H.

2012-04-01

We present results of a novel approach to tune predictive skill of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. These models contain tunable parameters which appear in parameterizations schemes of sub-grid scale physical processes. The current practice is to specify manually the numerical parameter values, based on expert knowledge. We developed recently a concept and method (QJRMS 2011) for on-line estimation of the NWP model parameters via closure parameter variations. The method called EPPES ("Ensemble prediction and parameter estimation system") utilizes ensemble prediction infra-structure for parameter estimation in a very cost-effective way: practically no new computations are introduced. The approach provides an algorithmic decision making tool for model parameter optimization in operational NWP. In EPPES, statistical inference about the NWP model tunable parameters is made by (i) generating an ensemble of predictions so that each member uses different model parameter values, drawn from a proposal distribution, and (ii) feeding-back the relative merits of the parameter values to the proposal distribution, based on evaluation of a suitable likelihood function against verifying observations. In this presentation, the method is first illustrated in low-order numerical tests using a stochastic version of the Lorenz-95 model which effectively emulates the principal features of ensemble prediction systems. The EPPES method correctly detects the unknown and wrongly specified parameters values, and leads to an improved forecast skill. Second, results with an ensemble prediction system emulator, based on the ECHAM5 atmospheric GCM show that the model tuning capability of EPPES scales up to realistic models and ensemble prediction systems. Finally, preliminary results of EPPES in the context of ECMWF forecasting system are presented.

Potential climate-induced runoff changes and associated uncertainty in four Pacific Northwest estuaries

USGS Publications Warehouse

Steele, Madeline O.; Chang, Heejun; Reusser, Deborah A.; Brown, Cheryl A.; Jung, Il-Won

2012-01-01

As part of a larger investigation into potential effects of climate change on estuarine habitats in the Pacific Northwest, we estimated changes in freshwater inputs into four estuaries: Coquille River estuary, South Slough of Coos Bay, and Yaquina Bay in Oregon, and Willapa Bay in Washington. We used the U.S. Geological Survey's Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) to model watershed hydrological processes under current and future climatic conditions. This model allowed us to explore possible shifts in coastal hydrologic regimes at a range of spatial scales. All modeled watersheds are located in rainfall-dominated coastal areas with relatively insignificant base flow inputs, and their areas vary from 74.3 to 2,747.6 square kilometers. The watersheds also vary in mean elevation, ranging from 147 meters in the Willapa to 1,179 meters in the Coquille. The latitudes of watershed centroids range from 43.037 degrees north latitude in the Coquille River estuary to 46.629 degrees north latitude in Willapa Bay. We calibrated model parameters using historical climate grid data downscaled to one-sixteenth of a degree by the Climate Impacts Group, and historical runoff from sub-watersheds or neighboring watersheds. Nash Sutcliffe efficiency values for daily flows in calibration sub-watersheds ranged from 0.71 to 0.89. After calibration, we forced the PRMS models with four North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program climate models: Canadian Regional Climate Model-(National Center for Atmospheric Research) Community Climate System Model version 3, Canadian Regional Climate Model-Canadian Global Climate Model version 3, Hadley Regional Model version 3-Hadley Centre Climate Model version 3, and Regional Climate Model-Canadian Global Climate Model version 3. These are global climate models (GCMs) downscaled with regional climate models that are embedded within the GCMs, and all use the A2 carbon emission scenario developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. With these climate-forcing outputs, we derived the mean change in flow from the period encompassing the 1980s (1971-1995) to the period encompassing the 2050s (2041-2065). Specifically, we calculated percent change in mean monthly flow rate, coefficient of variation, top 5 percent of flow, and 7-day low flow. The trends with the most agreement among climate models and among watersheds were increases in autumn mean monthly flows, especially in October and November, decreases in summer monthly mean flow, and increases in the top 5 percent of flow. We also estimated variance in PRMS outputs owing to parameter uncertainty and the selection of climate model using Latin hypercube sampling. This analysis showed that PRMS low-flow simulations are more uncertain than medium or high flow simulations, and that variation among climate models was a larger source of uncertainty than the hydrological model parameters. These results improve our understanding of how climate change may affect the saltwater-freshwater balance in Pacific Northwest estuaries, with implications for their sensitive ecosystems.

Indirect aerosol effect increases CMIP5 models projected Arctic warming

DOE PAGES

Chylek, Petr; Vogelsang, Timothy J.; Klett, James D.; ...

2016-02-20

Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) climate models’ projections of the 2014–2100 Arctic warming under radiative forcing from representative concentration pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) vary from 0.9° to 6.7°C. Climate models with or without a full indirect aerosol effect are both equally successful in reproducing the observed (1900–2014) Arctic warming and its trends. However, the 2014–2100 Arctic warming and the warming trends projected by models that include a full indirect aerosol effect (denoted here as AA models) are significantly higher (mean projected Arctic warming is about 1.5°C higher) than those projected by models without a full indirect aerosolmore » effect (denoted here as NAA models). The suggestion is that, within models including full indirect aerosol effects, those projecting stronger future changes are not necessarily distinguishable historically because any stronger past warming may have been partially offset by stronger historical aerosol cooling. In conclusion, the CMIP5 models that include a full indirect aerosol effect follow an inverse radiative forcing to equilibrium climate sensitivity relationship, while models without it do not.« less

Indirect aerosol effect increases CMIP5 models projected Arctic warming

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chylek, Petr; Vogelsang, Timothy J.; Klett, James D.

Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) climate models’ projections of the 2014–2100 Arctic warming under radiative forcing from representative concentration pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) vary from 0.9° to 6.7°C. Climate models with or without a full indirect aerosol effect are both equally successful in reproducing the observed (1900–2014) Arctic warming and its trends. However, the 2014–2100 Arctic warming and the warming trends projected by models that include a full indirect aerosol effect (denoted here as AA models) are significantly higher (mean projected Arctic warming is about 1.5°C higher) than those projected by models without a full indirect aerosolmore » effect (denoted here as NAA models). The suggestion is that, within models including full indirect aerosol effects, those projecting stronger future changes are not necessarily distinguishable historically because any stronger past warming may have been partially offset by stronger historical aerosol cooling. In conclusion, the CMIP5 models that include a full indirect aerosol effect follow an inverse radiative forcing to equilibrium climate sensitivity relationship, while models without it do not.« less

Documenting Climate Models and Simulations: the ES-DOC Ecosystem in Support of CMIP

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pascoe, C. L.; Guilyardi, E.

2017-12-01

The results of climate models are of increasing and widespread importance. No longer is climate model output of sole interest to climate scientists and researchers in the climate change impacts and adaptation fields. Now non-specialists such as government officials, policy-makers, and the general public, all have an increasing need to access climate model output and understand its implications. For this host of users, accurate and complete metadata (i.e., information about how and why the data were produced) is required to document the climate modeling results. Here we describe the ES-DOC community-govern project to collect and make available documentation of climate models and their simulations for the internationally coordinated modeling activity CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 6). An overview of the underlying standards, key properties and features, the evolution from CMIP5, the underlying tools and workflows as well as what modelling groups should expect and how they should engage with the documentation of their contribution to CMIP6 is also presented.

The software architecture of climate models: a graphical comparison of CMIP5 and EMICAR5 configurations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alexander, K.; Easterbrook, S. M.

2015-01-01

We analyse the source code of eight coupled climate models, selected from those that participated in the CMIP5 (Taylor et al., 2012) or EMICAR5 (Eby et al., 2013; Zickfeld et al., 2013) intercomparison projects. For each model, we sort the preprocessed code into components and subcomponents based on dependency structure. We then create software architecture diagrams which show the relative sizes of these components/subcomponents and the flow of data between them. The diagrams also illustrate several major classes of climate model design; the distribution of complexity between components, which depends on historical development paths as well as the conscious goals of each institution; and the sharing of components between different modelling groups. These diagrams offer insights into the similarities and differences between models, and have the potential to be useful tools for communication between scientists, scientific institutions, and the public.

Linking models of human behaviour and climate alters projected climate change

DOE PAGES

Beckage, Brian; Gross, Louis J.; Lacasse, Katherine; ...

2018-01-01

Although not considered in climate models, perceived risk stemming from extreme climate events may induce behavioural changes that alter greenhouse gas emissions. Here, we link the C-ROADS climate model to a social model of behavioural change to examine how interactions between perceived risk and emissions behaviour influence projected climate change. Our coupled climate and social model resulted in a global temperature change ranging from 3.4–6.2 °C by 2100 compared with 4.9 °C for the C-ROADS model alone, and led to behavioural uncertainty that was of a similar magnitude to physical uncertainty (2.8 °C versus 3.5 °C). Model components with themore » largest influence on temperature were the functional form of response to extreme events, interaction of perceived behavioural control with perceived social norms, and behaviours leading to sustained emissions reductions. Lastly, our results suggest that policies emphasizing the appropriate attribution of extreme events to climate change and infrastructural mitigation may reduce climate change the most.« less

Linking models of human behaviour and climate alters projected climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beckage, Brian; Gross, Louis J.; Lacasse, Katherine; Carr, Eric; Metcalf, Sara S.; Winter, Jonathan M.; Howe, Peter D.; Fefferman, Nina; Franck, Travis; Zia, Asim; Kinzig, Ann; Hoffman, Forrest M.

2018-01-01

Although not considered in climate models, perceived risk stemming from extreme climate events may induce behavioural changes that alter greenhouse gas emissions. Here, we link the C-ROADS climate model to a social model of behavioural change to examine how interactions between perceived risk and emissions behaviour influence projected climate change. Our coupled climate and social model resulted in a global temperature change ranging from 3.4-6.2 °C by 2100 compared with 4.9 °C for the C-ROADS model alone, and led to behavioural uncertainty that was of a similar magnitude to physical uncertainty (2.8 °C versus 3.5 °C). Model components with the largest influence on temperature were the functional form of response to extreme events, interaction of perceived behavioural control with perceived social norms, and behaviours leading to sustained emissions reductions. Our results suggest that policies emphasizing the appropriate attribution of extreme events to climate change and infrastructural mitigation may reduce climate change the most.