Cloud microphysics and aerosol indirect effects in the global climate model ECHAM5-HAM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lohmann, U.; Stier, P.; Hoose, C.; Ferrachat, S.; Roeckner, E.; Zhang, J.

2007-03-01

The double-moment cloud microphysics scheme from ECHAM4 has been coupled to the size-resolved aerosol scheme ECHAM5-HAM. ECHAM5-HAM predicts the aerosol mass and number concentrations and the aerosol mixing state. This results in a much better agreement with observed vertical profiles of the black carbon and aerosol mass mixing ratios than with the previous version ECHAM4, where only the different aerosol mass mixing ratios were predicted. Also, the simulated liquid, ice and total water content and the cloud droplet and ice crystal number concentrations as a function of temperature in stratiform mixed-phase clouds between 0 and -35°C agree much better with aircraft observations in the ECHAM5 simulations. ECHAM5 performs better because more realistic aerosol concentrations are available for cloud droplet nucleation and because the Bergeron-Findeisen process is parameterized as being more efficient. The total anthropogenic aerosol effect includes the direct, semi-direct and indirect effects and is defined as the difference in the top-of-the-atmosphere net radiation between present-day and pre-industrial times. It amounts to -1.8 W m-2 in ECHAM5, when a relative humidity dependent cloud cover scheme and present-day aerosol emissions representative for the year 2000 are used. It is larger when either a statistical cloud cover scheme or a different aerosol emission inventory are employed.

Possible influence of dust on hurricane genesis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bretl, Sebastian; Reutter, Philipp; Raible, Christoph C.; Ferrachat, Sylvaine; Lohmann, Ulrike

2014-05-01

Tropical Cyclones (TCs) belong to the most extreme events in nature. In the past decade, the possible impact of dust on Atlantic hurricanes receives growing interest. As mineral dust is able to absorb incoming solar radiation and therefore warm the surrounding air, the presence of dust can lead to a reduction of sea surface temperature (SST) and an increase in atmospheric stability. Furthermore, resulting baroclinic effects and the dry Saharan easterly jet lead to an enhanced vertical shear of the horizontal winds. SST, stability, moisture and vertical wind shear are known to potentially impact hurricane activity. But how Saharan dust influences these prerequisites for hurricane formation is not yet clear. Some dynamical mechanisms induced by the SAL might even strengthen hurricanes. An adequate framework for investigating the possible impact of dust on hurricanes is comparing high resolution simulations (~0.5°x0.5°, 31 vertical levels) with and without radiatively active dust aerosols. To accomplish this task, we are using the general circulation model ECHAM6 coupled to a modified version of the aerosol model HAM, ECHAM6-HAM-Dust. Instead of the five aerosol species HAM normally contains, the modified version takes only insoluble dust into account, but modifies the scavenging parameters in order to have a similar lifetime of dust as in the full ECHAM6-HAM. All remaining aerosols are prescribed. To evaluate the effects of dust on hurricanes, a TC detection and tracking method is applied on the results. ECHAM6-HAM-Dust was used in two configurations, one with radiatively active dust aerosols and one with dust being not radiatively active. For both set-ups, 10 Monte-Carlo simulations of the year 2005 were performed. A statistical method which identifies controlling parameters of hurricane genesis was applied on North Atlantic developing and non-developing disturbances in all simulations, comparing storms in the two sets of simulations. Hereby, dust can be assigned a more influencing role on TC genesis in the simulations with active dust. Despite dust is seeming to have a negative influence on TC genesis, the relative importance of dust compared to the sea surface temperature (SST) cannot be determined thoroughly. This is largely due to a similar pattern of SST and dust off the west coast of Africa, so that possible effects of dust and SST could hardly be separated.

Understanding the Central Equatorial African long-term drought using AMIP-type simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hua, Wenjian; Zhou, Liming; Chen, Haishan; Nicholson, Sharon E.; Jiang, Yan; Raghavendra, Ajay

2018-02-01

Previous studies show that Indo-Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) variations may help to explain the observed long-term drought during April-May-June (AMJ) since the 1990s over Central equatorial Africa (CEA). However, the underlying physical mechanisms for this drought are still not clear due to observation limitations. Here we use the AMIP-type simulations with 24 ensemble members forced by observed SSTs from the ECHAM4.5 model to explore the likely physical processes that determine the rainfall variations over CEA. We not only examine the ensemble mean (EM), but also compare the "good" and "poor" ensemble members to understand the intra-ensemble variability. In general, EM and the "good" ensemble member can simulate the drought and associated reduced vertical velocity and anomalous anti-cyclonic circulation in the lower troposphere. However, the "poor" ensemble members cannot simulate the drought and associated circulation patterns. These contrasts indicate that the drought is tightly associated with the tropical Walker circulation and atmospheric teleconnection patterns. If the observational circulation patterns cannot be reproduced, the CEA drought will not be captured. Despite the large intra-ensemble spread, the model simulations indicate an essential role of SST forcing in causing the drought. These results suggest that the long-term drought may result from tropical Indo-Pacific SST variations associated with the enhanced and westward extended tropical Walker circulation.

High Frequency Chandler Wobble Excitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seitz, F.; Stuck, J.; Thomas, M.

2003-04-01

Variations of Earth rotation on sub-daily to secular timescales are caused by mass redistributions in the Earth system as a consequence of geophysical processes and gravitational influences. Forced oscillations of polar motion are superposed by free oscillations of the Earth, i.e. the Chandler wobble and the free core nutation. In order to study the interactions between externally induced polar motion and the Earth's free oscillations, a non-linear gyroscopic model has been developed. In most of the former investigations on polar motion, the Chandler wobble is introduced as a damped oscillation with predetermined frequency and amplitude. However, as the effect of rotational deformation is a backcoupling mechanism of polar motion on the Earth's rotational dynamics, both period and amplitude of the Chandler wobble are time-dependent when regarding additional excitations from, e.g., atmospheric or oceanic mass redistributions. The gyroscopic model is free of any explicit information concerning amplitude, phase, and period of free oscillations. The characteristics of the Earth's free oscillation is reproduced by the model from rheological and geometrical parameters and rotational deformation is taken into account. This enables to study the time variable Chandler oscillation when the gyro is forced with atmospheric and oceanic angular momentum from the global atmospheric ECHAM3-T21 general circulation model together with the ocean model for circulation and tides OMCT driven by ECHAM including surface pressure. Besides, mass redistributions in the Earth's body due to gravitational and loading deformations are regarded and external torques exerted by Moon and Sun are considered. The numerical results of the gyro are significantly related with the geodetically observed time series of polar motion published by the IERS. It is shown that the consistent excitation is capable to counteract the damping and thus to maintain the Chandler amplitude. Spectral analyses of the ECHAM and OMCT forcing fields give no hint for increased excitation power in the Chandler band. Thus it is assumed, that continuous high frequency excitation due to stochastic weather phenomena is responsible for the perpetuation of the Chandler wobble.

Cloud microphysics and aerosol indirect effects in the global climate model ECHAM5-HAM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lohmann, U.; Stier, P.; Hoose, C.; Ferrachat, S.; Kloster, S.; Roeckner, E.; Zhang, J.

2007-07-01

The double-moment cloud microphysics scheme from ECHAM4 that predicts both the mass mixing ratios and number concentrations of cloud droplets and ice crystals has been coupled to the size-resolved aerosol scheme ECHAM5-HAM. ECHAM5-HAM predicts the aerosol mass, number concentrations and mixing state. The simulated liquid, ice and total water content and the cloud droplet and ice crystal number concentrations as a function of temperature in stratiform mixed-phase clouds between 0 and -35° C agree much better with aircraft observations in the ECHAM5 simulations. ECHAM5 performs better because more realistic aerosol concentrations are available for cloud droplet nucleation and because the Bergeron-Findeisen process is parameterized as being more efficient. The total anthropogenic aerosol effect includes the direct, semi-direct and indirect effects and is defined as the difference in the top-of-the-atmosphere net radiation between present-day and pre-industrial times. It amounts to -1.9 W m-2 in ECHAM5, when a relative humidity dependent cloud cover scheme and aerosol emissions representative for the years 1750 and 2000 from the AeroCom emission inventory are used. The contribution of the cloud albedo effect amounts to -0.7 W m-2. The total anthropogenic aerosol effect is larger when either a statistical cloud cover scheme or a different aerosol emission inventory are employed because the cloud lifetime effect increases.

Reconciling the aerosol-liquid water path relationship in the ECHAM6-HAM GCM and the Aerosol_cci/Cloud_cci (A)ATSR dataset by minimizing the effect of aerosol swelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neubauer, D.; Christensen, M.; Lohmann, U.; Poulsen, C. A.

2016-12-01

Studies using present day variability to assess statistical relationships between aerosol and cloud properties find different strengths of these relationships between satellite data and general circulation model (GCM) data. This discrepancy can be explained by structural uncertainties due to differences in the analysis/observational scale and the process scale or spurious relationships between aerosol and cloud properties. Such spurious relationships are the growth of aerosol particles in the humid environment surrounding clouds, misclassification of partly cloudy satellite pixels as cloud free pixels, brightening of aerosol particles by sunlight reflected at cloud edges, or effects of clouds on aerosol like processing of aerosol particles in clouds by nucleation or impact scavenging and subsequent growth by heterogeneous chemistry and release by cloud droplet evaporation or wet scavenging of aerosol particles. To minimize the effects of spatial aggregation and spurious relationships we apply a new nearest neighbour approach to high resolution (A)ATSR datasets from the Aerosol_cci and Cloud_cci projects of the Climate Change Initiative (CCI) programme of ESA. For the ECHAM6-HAM GCM we quantify the impact of using dry aerosol (without aerosol water) in the analysis to mimic the effect of the nearest neighbour approach. The aerosol-liquid water path relationship in ECHAM6-HAM is systematically stronger than in (A)ATSR data and cannot be explained by an overestimation of autoconversion when using diagnostic precipitation but rather by aerosol swelling in regions where humidity is high and clouds are present. When aerosol water is removed from the analysis in ECHAM6-HAM the strength of the aerosol-liquid water path relationship agrees much better with the ones of (A)ATSR or MODIS. We further find that while the observed relationships of different satellite sensors ((A)ATSR vs. MODIS) are not always consistent for tested environmental conditions the relationships in ECHAM6-HAM are missing a strong dependence on environmental conditions which is critical for bridging the gap between satellite and model estimates of aerosol indirect forcing.

Consequences of changes in vegetation and snow cover for climate feedbacks in Alaska and northwest Canada

USGS Publications Warehouse

Euskirchen, Eugénie S.; Bennett, A. P.; Breen, Amy L.; Genet, Helene; Lindgren, Michael A.; Kurkowski, Tom; McGuire, A. David; Rupp, T. Scott

2016-01-01

Changes in vegetation and snow cover may lead to feedbacks to climate through changes in surface albedo and energy fluxes between the land and atmosphere. In addition to these biogeophysical feedbacks, biogeochemical feedbacks associated with changes in carbon (C) storage in the vegetation and soils may also influence climate. Here, using a transient biogeographic model (ALFRESCO) and an ecosystem model (DOS-TEM), we quantified the biogeophysical feedbacks due to changes in vegetation and snow cover across continuous permafrost to non-permafrost ecosystems in Alaska and northwest Canada. We also computed the changes in carbon storage in this region to provide a general assessment of the direction of the biogeochemical feedback. We considered four ecoregions, or Landscape Conservations Cooperatives (LCCs; including the Arctic, North Pacific, Western Alaska, and Northwest Boreal). We examined the 90 year period from 2010 to 2099 using one future emission scenario (A1B), under outputs from two general circulation models (MPI-ECHAM5 and CCCMA-CGCM3.1). We found that changes in snow cover duration, including both the timing of snowmelt in the spring and snow return in the fall, provided the dominant positive biogeophysical feedback to climate across all LCCs, and was greater for the ECHAM (+3.1 W m−2 decade−1regionally) compared to the CCCMA (+1.3 W m−2 decade−1 regionally) scenario due to an increase in loss of snow cover in the ECHAM scenario. The greatest overall negative feedback to climate from changes in vegetation cover was due to fire in spruce forests in the Northwest Boreal LCC and fire in shrub tundra in the Western LCC (−0.2 to −0.3 W m−2 decade−1). With the larger positive feedbacks associated with reductions in snow cover compared to the smaller negative feedbacks associated with shifts in vegetation, the feedback to climate warming was positive (total feedback of +2.7 W m−2decade regionally in the ECHAM scenario compared to +0.76 W m−2 decade regionally in the CCCMA scenario). Overall, increases in C storage in the vegetation and soils across the study region would act as a negative feedback to climate. By exploring these feedbacks to climate, we can reach a more integrated understanding of the manner in which climate change may impact interactions between high-latitude ecosystems and the global climate system.

Impact of tropical Atlantic sea-surface temperature biases on the simulated atmospheric circulation and precipitation over the Atlantic region: An ECHAM6 model study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eichhorn, Astrid; Bader, Jürgen

2017-09-01

As many coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models, the coupled Earth System Model developed at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology suffers from severe sea-surface temperature (SST) biases in the tropical Atlantic. We performed a set of SST sensitivity experiments with its atmospheric model component ECHAM6 to understand the impact of tropical Atlantic SST biases on atmospheric circulation and precipitation. The model was forced by a climatology of observed global SSTs to focus on simulated seasonal and annual mean state climate. Through the superposition of varying tropical Atlantic bias patterns extracted from the MPI-ESM on top of the control field, this study investigates the relevance of the seasonal variation and spatial structure of tropical Atlantic biases for the simulated response. Results show that the position and structure of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) across the Atlantic is significantly affected, exhibiting a dynamically forced shift of annual mean precipitation maximum to the east of the Atlantic basin as well as a southward shift of the oceanic rain belt. The SST-induced changes in the ITCZ in turn affect seasonal rainfall over adjacent continents. However not only the ITCZ position but also other effects arising from biases in tropical Atlantic SSTs, e.g. variations in the wind field, change the simulation of precipitation over land. The seasonal variation and spatial pattern of tropical Atlantic SST biases turns out to be crucial for the simulated atmospheric response and is essential for analyzing the contribution of SST biases to coupled model mean state biases. Our experiments show that MPI-ESM mean-state biases in the Atlantic sector are mainly driven by SST biases in the tropical Atlantic while teleconnections from other basins seem to play a minor role.

Tuning a climate model using nudging to reanalysis.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheedela, S. K.; Mapes, B. E.

2014-12-01

Tuning a atmospheric general circulation model involves a daunting task of adjusting non-observable parameters to adjust the mean climate. These parameters arise from necessity to describe unresolved flow through parametrizations. Tuning a climate model is often done with certain set of priorities, such as global mean temperature, net top of the atmosphere radiation. These priorities are hard enough to reach let alone reducing systematic biases in the models. The goal of currently study is to explore alternate ways to tune a climate model to reduce some systematic biases that can be used in synergy with existing efforts. Nudging a climate model to a known state is a poor man's inverse of tuning process described above. Our approach involves nudging the atmospheric model to state of art reanalysis fields thereby providing a balanced state with respect to the global mean temperature and winds. The tendencies derived from nudging are negative of errors from physical parametrizations as the errors from dynamical core would be small. Patterns of nudging are compared to the patterns of different physical parametrizations to decipher the cause for certain biases in relation to tuning parameters. This approach might also help in understanding certain compensating errors that arise from tuning process. ECHAM6 is a comprehensive general model, also used in recent Coupled Model Intercomparision Project(CMIP5). The approach used to tune it and effect of certain parameters that effect its mean climate are reported clearly, hence it serves as a benchmark for our approach. Our planned experiments include nudging ECHAM6 atmospheric model to European Center Reanalysis (ERA-Interim) and reanalysis from National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and decipher choice of certain parameters that lead to systematic biases in its simulations. Of particular interest are reducing long standing biases related to simulation of Asian summer monsoon.

Simulation of Rainfall Variability Over West Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bader, J.; Latif, M.

The impact of sea surface temperature (SST) and vegetation on precipitation over West Africa is investigated with the atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM4.x/T42. Ensemble experiments -driven with observed SST- show that At- lantic SST has a significant influence on JJA precipitation over West Africa. Four- teen experiments were performed in which the climatological SST was enhanced or decreased by one Kelvin in certain ocean areas. Changing SST in the eastern tropi- cal Atlantic only caused significant changes along the Guinea Coast, with a positive SSTA increasing rainfall and a negative reducing it. The response was nearly linear. Changing SST in other ocean areas caused significant changes over West Africa, es- pecially in the Sahel area. The response is found to be non linear, with only negative SSTA leading to significant reduction in Sahel rainfall. Also, the impact of the SSTAs from the different ocean regions was not additive with respect to the rainfall. Four simulations with a coupled model (the simple dynamic vegetation model (SVege) and the ECHAM4-AGCM were coupled) were also performed, driven with observed SST from 1945 to 1998. The standard ECHAM-AGCM -forced by the same observed SST- was able to reproduce the drying trend from the fifties to the mid-eighties in the Sahel, but failed to mirror the magnitude of the rainfall anomalies. The coupled model was not only able to reproduce this drying trend, but was also able to better reproduce the amplitudes of the rainfall anomalies. The dynamic vegetation acted like an amplifier, increasing the SST induced rainfall anomalies.

Evaluation of stratospheric temperature simulation results by the global GRAPES model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Ningwei; Wang, Yangfeng; Ma, Xiaogang; Zhang, Yunhai

2017-12-01

Global final analysis (FNL) products and the general circulation spectral model (ECHAM) were used to evaluate the simulation of stratospheric temperature by the global assimilation and prediction system (GRAPES). Through a series of comparisons, it was shown that the temperature variations at 50 hPa simulated by GRAPES were significantly elevated in the southern hemisphere, whereas simulations by ECHAM and FNL varied little over time. The regional warming predicted by GRAPES seemed to be too distinct and uncontrolled to be reasonable. The temperature difference between GRAPES and FNL (GRAPES minus FNL) was small at the start time on the global scale. Over time, the positive values became larger in more locations, especially in parts of the southern hemisphere, where the warming predicted by GRAPES was dominant, with a maximal value larger than 24 K. To determine the reasons for the stratospheric warming, we considered the model initial conditions and ozone data to be possible factors; however, a comparison and sensitivity test indicated that the errors produced by GRAPES were not significantly related to either factor. Further research focusing on the impact of factors such as vapor, heating rate, and the temperature tendency on GRAPES simulations will be conducted.

Heinrich events simulated across the glacial

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ziemen, F. A.; Mikolajewicz, U.

2015-12-01

Heinrich events are among the most prominent climate change events recorded in proxies across the northern hemisphere. They are the archetype of ice sheet — climate interactions on millennial time scales. Nevertheless, the exact mechanisms that cause Heinrich events are still under discussion, and their climatic consequences are far from being fully understood. We contribute to answering the open questions by studying Heinrich events in a coupled ice sheet model (ISM) atmosphere-ocean-vegetation general circulation model (AOVGCM) framework, where this variability occurs as part of the model generated internal variability. The setup consists of a northern hemisphere setup of the modified Parallel Ice Sheet Model (mPISM) coupled to the global AOVGCM ECHAM5/MPIOM/LPJ. The simulations were performed fully coupled and with transient orbital and greenhouse gas forcing. They span from several millennia before the last glacial maximum into the deglaciation. We analyze simulations where the ISM is coupled asynchronously to the AOVGCM and simulations where the ISM and the ocean model are coupled synchronously and the atmosphere model is coupled asynchronously to them. The modeled Heinrich events show a marked influence of the ice discharge on the Atlantic circulation and heat transport.

Prognostic parameterization of cloud ice with a single category in the aerosol-climate model ECHAM(v6.3.0)-HAM(v2.3)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dietlicher, Remo; Neubauer, David; Lohmann, Ulrike

2018-04-01

A new scheme for stratiform cloud microphysics has been implemented in the ECHAM6-HAM2 general circulation model. It features a widely used description of cloud water with two categories for cloud droplets and raindrops. The unique aspect of the new scheme is the break with the traditional approach to describe cloud ice analogously. Here we parameterize cloud ice by a single category that predicts bulk particle properties (P3). This method has already been applied in a regional model and most recently also in the Community Atmosphere Model 5 (CAM5). A single cloud ice category does not rely on heuristic conversion rates from one category to another. Therefore, it is conceptually easier and closer to first principles. This work shows that a single category is a viable approach to describe cloud ice in climate models. Prognostic representation of sedimentation is achieved by a nested approach for sub-stepping the cloud microphysics scheme. This yields good results in terms of accuracy and performance as compared to simulations with high temporal resolution. Furthermore, the new scheme allows for a competition between various cloud processes and is thus able to unbiasedly represent the ice formation pathway from nucleation to growth by vapor deposition and collisions to sedimentation. Specific aspects of the P3 method are evaluated. We could not produce a purely stratiform cloud where rime growth dominates growth by vapor deposition and conclude that the lack of appropriate conditions renders the prognostic parameters associated with the rime properties unnecessary. Limitations inherent in a single category are examined.

Decomposition of Sources of Errors in Seasonal Streamflow Forecasting over the U.S. Sunbelt

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mazrooei, Amirhossein; Sinah, Tusshar; Sankarasubramanian, A.; Kumar, Sujay V.; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.

2015-01-01

Seasonal streamflow forecasts, contingent on climate information, can be utilized to ensure water supply for multiple uses including municipal demands, hydroelectric power generation, and for planning agricultural operations. However, uncertainties in the streamflow forecasts pose significant challenges in their utilization in real-time operations. In this study, we systematically decompose various sources of errors in developing seasonal streamflow forecasts from two Land Surface Models (LSMs) (Noah3.2 and CLM2), which are forced with downscaled and disaggregated climate forecasts. In particular, the study quantifies the relative contributions of the sources of errors from LSMs, climate forecasts, and downscaling/disaggregation techniques in developing seasonal streamflow forecast. For this purpose, three month ahead seasonal precipitation forecasts from the ECHAM4.5 general circulation model (GCM) were statistically downscaled from 2.8deg to 1/8deg spatial resolution using principal component regression (PCR) and then temporally disaggregated from monthly to daily time step using kernel-nearest neighbor (K-NN) approach. For other climatic forcings, excluding precipitation, we considered the North American Land Data Assimilation System version 2 (NLDAS-2) hourly climatology over the years 1979 to 2010. Then the selected LSMs were forced with precipitation forecasts and NLDAS-2 hourly climatology to develop retrospective seasonal streamflow forecasts over a period of 20 years (1991-2010). Finally, the performance of LSMs in forecasting streamflow under different schemes was analyzed to quantify the relative contribution of various sources of errors in developing seasonal streamflow forecast. Our results indicate that the most dominant source of errors during winter and fall seasons is the errors due to ECHAM4.5 precipitation forecasts, while temporal disaggregation scheme contributes to maximum errors during summer season.

Sensitivity of the summertime tropical Atlantic precipitation distribution to convective parameterization and model resolution in ECHAM6

DOE PAGES

Siongco, Angela Cheska; Hohenegger, Cathy; Stevens, Bjorn

2017-02-09

A realistic simulation of the tropical Atlantic precipitation distribution remains a challenge for atmospheric general circulation models, owing to their too coarse resolution that makes it necessary to parameterize convection. During boreal summer, models tend to underestimate the northward shift of the tropical Atlantic rain belt, leading to deficient precipitation over land and an anomalous precipitation maximum over the west Atlantic ocean. In this study, the model ECHAM6 is used to test the sensitivity of the precipitation biases to convective parameterization and horizontal resolution. Two sets of sensitivity experiments are performed. In the first set of experiments, modifications are appliedmore » to the convection scheme in order to investigate the relative roles of the trigger, entrainment, and closure formulations. In the second set, the model is run at high resolution with low-resolution boundary conditions in order to identify the relative contributions of a high-resolution atmosphere, orography, and surface. Results show that the dry bias over land in the model can be reduced by weakening the entrainment rate over land. Over ocean, it is found that the anomalous precipitation maximum occurs because of model choices that decrease the sensitivity of convection to the monsoon circulation in the east Atlantic. A reduction of the west Atlantic precipitation bias can be achieved by (i) using a moisture convergence closure, (ii) increasing the resolution of orography, or (iii) enhancing the production of deep convection in the east Atlantic. As a result, the biases over land and over ocean do not impact each other.« less

Simulating Heinrich events in a coupled atmosphere-ocean-ice sheet model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mikolajewicz, Uwe; Ziemen, Florian

2016-04-01

Heinrich events are among the most prominent events of long-term climate variability recorded in proxies across the northern hemisphere. They are the archetype of ice sheet - climate interactions on millennial time scales. Nevertheless, the exact mechanisms that cause Heinrich events are still under discussion, and their climatic consequences are far from being fully understood. We contribute to answering the open questions by studying Heinrich events in a coupled ice sheet model (ISM) atmosphere-ocean-vegetation general circulation model (AOVGCM) framework, where this variability occurs as part of the model generated internal variability without the need to prescribe external perturbations, as was the standard approach in almost all model studies so far. The setup consists of a northern hemisphere setup of the modified Parallel Ice Sheet Model (mPISM) coupled to the global coarse resolution AOVGCM ECHAM5/MPIOM/LPJ. The simulations used for this analysis were an ensemble covering substantial parts of the late Glacial forced with transient insolation and prescribed atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. The modeled Heinrich events show a marked influence of the ice discharge on the Atlantic circulation and heat transport, but none of the Heinrich events during the Glacial did show a complete collapse of the North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. The simulated main consequences of the Heinrich events are a freshening and cooling over the North Atlantic and a drying over northern Europe.

Model and Scenario Variations in Predicted Number of Generations of Spodoptera litura Fab. on Peanut during Future Climate Change Scenario

PubMed Central

Srinivasa Rao, Mathukumalli; Swathi, Pettem; Rama Rao, Chitiprolu Anantha; Rao, K. V.; Raju, B. M. K.; Srinivas, Karlapudi; Manimanjari, Dammu; Maheswari, Mandapaka

2015-01-01

The present study features the estimation of number of generations of tobacco caterpillar, Spodoptera litura. Fab. on peanut crop at six locations in India using MarkSim, which provides General Circulation Model (GCM) of future data on daily maximum (T.max), minimum (T.min) air temperatures from six models viz., BCCR-BCM2.0, CNRM-CM3, CSIRO-Mk3.5, ECHams5, INCM-CM3.0 and MIROC3.2 along with an ensemble of the six from three emission scenarios (A2, A1B and B1). This data was used to predict the future pest scenarios following the growing degree days approach in four different climate periods viz., Baseline-1975, Near future (NF) -2020, Distant future (DF)-2050 and Very Distant future (VDF)—2080. It is predicted that more generations would occur during the three future climate periods with significant variation among scenarios and models. Among the seven models, 1–2 additional generations were predicted during DF and VDF due to higher future temperatures in CNRM-CM3, ECHams5 & CSIRO-Mk3.5 models. The temperature projections of these models indicated that the generation time would decrease by 18–22% over baseline. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) was used to partition the variation in the predicted number of generations and generation time of S. litura on peanut during crop season. Geographical location explained 34% of the total variation in number of generations, followed by time period (26%), model (1.74%) and scenario (0.74%). The remaining 14% of the variation was explained by interactions. Increased number of generations and reduction of generation time across the six peanut growing locations of India suggest that the incidence of S. litura may increase due to projected increase in temperatures in future climate change periods. PMID:25671564

Using in-situ observations of atmospheric water vapor isotopes to benchmark and isotope-enabled General Circulation Models and improve ice core paleo-climate reconstruction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steen-Larsen, Hans Christian; Sveinbjörnsdottir, Arny; Masson-Delmotte, Valerie; Werner, Martin; Risi, Camille; Yoshimura, Kei

2016-04-01

We have since 2010 carried out in-situ continuous water vapor isotope observations on top of the Greenland Ice Sheet (3 seasons at NEEM), in Svalbard (1 year), in Iceland (4 years), in Bermuda (4 years). The expansive dataset containing high accuracy and precision measurements of δ18O, δD, and the d-excess allow us to validate and benchmark the treatment of the atmospheric hydrological cycle's processes in General Circulation Models using simulations nudged to reanalysis products. Recent findings from both Antarctica and Greenland have documented strong interaction between the snow surface isotopes and the near surface atmospheric water vapor isotopes on diurnal to synoptic time scales. In fact, it has been shown that the snow surface isotopes take up the synoptic driven atmospheric water vapor isotopic signal in-between precipitation events, erasing the precipitation isotope signal in the surface snow. This highlights the importance of using General or Regional Climate Models, which accurately are able to simulate the atmospheric water vapor isotopic composition, to understand and interpret the ice core isotope signal. With this in mind we have used three isotope-enabled General Circulation Models (isoGSM, ECHAM5-wiso, and LMDZiso) nudged to reanalysis products. We have compared the simulations of daily mean isotope values directly with our in-situ observations. This has allowed us to characterize the variability of the isotopic composition in the models and compared it to our observations. We have specifically focused on the d-excess in order to characterize why both the mean and the variability is significantly lower than our observations. We argue that using water vapor isotopes to benchmark General Circulation Models offers an excellent tool for improving the treatment and parameterization of the atmospheric hydrological cycle. Recent studies have documented a very large inter-model dispersion in the treatment of the Arctic water cycle under a future global warming and greenhouse gas emission scenario. Our results call for action to create an international pan-Arctic monitoring water vapor isotope network in order to improve future projections of Arctic climate.

Potential change in lodgepole pine site index and distribution under climatic change in Alberta.

Treesearch

Robert A. Monserud; Yuqing Yang; Shongming Huang; Nadja Tchebakova

2008-01-01

We estimated the impact of global climate change on lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta Dougl. ex. Loud. var. latifolia Engelm.) site productivity in Alberta based on the Alberta Climate Model and the A2 SRES climate change scenario projections from three global circulation models (CGCM2, HADCM3, and ECHAM4). Considerable warming is...

Characteristics of the ocean simulations in the Max Planck Institute Ocean Model (MPIOM) the ocean component of the MPI-Earth system model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jungclaus, J. H.; Fischer, N.; Haak, H.; Lohmann, K.; Marotzke, J.; Matei, D.; Mikolajewicz, U.; Notz, D.; von Storch, J. S.

2013-06-01

MPI-ESM is a new version of the global Earth system model developed at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology. This paper describes the ocean state and circulation as well as basic aspects of variability in simulations contributing to the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The performance of the ocean/sea-ice model MPIOM, coupled to a new version of the atmosphere model ECHAM6 and modules for land surface and ocean biogeochemistry, is assessed for two model versions with different grid resolution in the ocean. The low-resolution configuration has a nominal resolution of 1.5°, whereas the higher resolution version features a quasiuniform, eddy-permitting global resolution of 0.4°. The paper focuses on important oceanic features, such as surface temperature and salinity, water mass distribution, large-scale circulation, and heat and freshwater transports. In general, these integral quantities are simulated well in comparison with observational estimates, and improvements in comparison with the predecessor system are documented; for example, for tropical variability and sea ice representation. Introducing an eddy-permitting grid configuration in the ocean leads to improvements, in particular, in the representation of interior water mass properties in the Atlantic and in the representation of important ocean currents, such as the Agulhas and Equatorial current systems. In general, however, there are more similarities than differences between the two grid configurations, and several shortcomings, known from earlier versions of the coupled model, prevail.

Modes of North Atlantic Decadal Variability in the ECHAM1/LSG Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere General Circulation Model.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zorita, Eduardo; Frankignoul, Claude

1997-02-01

The climate variability in the North Atlantic sector is investigated in a 325-yr integration of the ECHAM1/ LSG coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model. At the interannual timescale, the coupled model behaves realistically and sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies arise as a response of the oceanic surface layer to the stochastic forcing by the atmosphere, with the heat exchanges both generating and damping the SST anomalies. In the ocean interior, the temperature spectra are red up to a period of about 20 years, and substantial decadal fluctuations are found in the upper kilometer or so of the water column. Using extended empirical orthogonal function analysis, two distinct quasi-oscillatory modes of ocean-atmosphere variability are identified, with dominant periods of about 20 and 10 years, respectively. The oceanic changes in both modes reflect the direct forcing by the atmosphere through anomalous air-sea fluxes and Ekman pumping, which after some delay affects the intensity of the subtropical and subpolar gyres. The SST is also strongly modulated by the gyre currents. In the thermocline, the temperature and salinity fluctuations are in phase, as if caused by thermocline displacements, and they have no apparent connection with the thermohaline circulation. The 20-yr mode is the most energetic one; it is easily seen in the thermocline and can be found in SST data, but it is not detected in the atmosphere alone. As there is no evidence of positive ocean-atmosphere feedback, the 20-yr mode primarily reflects the passive response of the ocean to atmospheric fluctuations, which may be in part associated with climate anomalies appearing a few years earlier in the North Pacific. The 10-yr mode is more surface trapped in the ocean. Although the mode is most easily seen in the temperature variations of the upper few hundred meters of the ocean, it is also detected in the atmosphere alone and thus appears to be a coupled ocean-atmosphere mode. In both modes, the surface heat flux acts neutrally on the associated SST anomalies once they have been generated, so that their persistence appears to be due in part to an overall adjustment of the air-sea heat exchanges to the SST patterns.

Aerosol Processing in Mixed-Phase Clouds in ECHAM5-HAM: Comparison of Single-Column Model Simulations to Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoose, C.; Lohmann, U.; Stier, P.; Verheggen, B.; Weingartner, E.; Herich, H.

2007-12-01

The global aerosol-climate model ECHAM5-HAM (Stier et al., 2005) has been extended by an explicit treatment of cloud-borne particles. Two additional modes for in-droplet and in-crystal particles are introduced, which are coupled to the number of cloud droplet and ice crystal concentrations simulated by the ECHAM5 double-moment cloud microphysics scheme (Lohmann et al., 2007). Transfer, production and removal of cloud-borne aerosol number and mass by cloud droplet activation, collision scavenging, aqueous-phase sulfate production, freezing, melting, evaporation, sublimation and precipitation formation are taken into account. The model performance is demonstrated and validated with observations of the evolution of total and interstitial aerosol concentrations and size distributions during three different mixed-phase cloud events at the alpine high-altitude research station Jungfraujoch (Switzerland) (Verheggen et al, 2007). Although the single-column simulations can not be compared one-to-one with the observations, the governing processes in the evolution of the cloud and aerosol parameters are captured qualitatively well. High scavenged fractions are found during the presence of liquid water, while the release of particles during the Bergeron-Findeisen process results in low scavenged fractions after cloud glaciation. The observed coexistence of liquid and ice, which might be related to cloud heterogeneity at subgrid scales, can only be simulated in the model when forcing non-equilibrium conditions. References: U. Lohmann et al., Cloud microphysics and aerosol indirect effects in the global climate model ECHAM5-HAM, Atmos. Chem. Phys. 7, 3425-3446 (2007) P. Stier et al., The aerosol-climate model ECHAM5-HAM, Atmos. Chem. Phys. 5, 1125-1156 (2005) B. Verheggen et al., Aerosol partitioning between the interstitial and the condensed phase in mixed-phase clouds, Accepted for publication in J. Geophys. Res. (2007)

A dynamical perspective on the energetic particles precipitation-middle atmosphere interaction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karami, Khalil; Sinnhuber, Miriam; Versick, Stefan; Braesicke, Peter

2015-04-01

Energetic particles including protons, electrons and heavier ions, enter the Earth's atmosphere over polar region of both hemispheres, where the geomagnetic lines are considered to be open and connected to the interplanetary medium. This condition allows direct access for energetic particles of solar or galactic origin to directly deposit their own energy into the middle and upper atmosphere. Such particle precipitations can greatly disturb the chemical composition of the upper and middle atmosphere. At polar latitudes, these particles have the potential to penetrate from thermosphere deep into the mesosphere and in rare occasions into the stratosphere. The most important are changes to the budget of atmospheric nitric oxides, NOy, and to atmospheric reactive hydrogen oxides, HOx, which both contribute to ozone loss in the stratosphere and mesosphere. The chemistry-climate general circulation model ECHAM5/MESSy is used to investigate the impact of changed ozone concentration due to energetic particles precipitation on temperatures and wind fields. The simulated anomalies of both zonal mean temperature and zonal wind suggest that these changes are very unlikely to be caused in situ by ozone depletion and indirect dynamical condition is important. The results of our simulations suggests that ozone perturbation is a starting point for a chain of processes resulting in temperature and circulation changes in many areas of the atmosphere. Different dynamical analysis (e.g., frequency of sudden stratospheric warming, dates of stratospheric final warming, divergence of Eliassen-Palm flux and refractive index of planetary waves) are performed to investigate the impact of ozone anomaly originated from high energetic particle precipitation on middle atmospheric temperature and circulation.

Evaluating the impact of chemical boundary conditions on near surface ozone in regional climate-air quality simulations over Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akritidis, D.; Zanis, P.; Katragkou, E.; Schultz, M. G.; Tegoulias, I.; Poupkou, A.; Markakis, K.; Pytharoulis, I.; Karacostas, Th.

2013-12-01

A modeling system based on the air quality model CAMx driven off-line by the regional climate model RegCM3 is used for assessing the impact of chemical lateral boundary conditions (LBCs) on near surface ozone over Europe for the period 1996-2000. The RegCM3 and CAMx simulations were performed on a 50 km × 50 km grid over Europe with RegCM3 driven by the NCEP meteorological reanalysis fields and CAMx with chemical LBCs from ECHAM5/MOZART global model. The recent past period (1996-2000) was simulated in three experiments. The first simulation was forced using time and space invariant LBCs, the second was based on ECHAM5/MOZART chemical LBCs fixed for the year 1996 and the third was based on ECHAM5/MOZART chemical LBCs with interannual variability. Anthropogenic and biogenic emissions were kept identical for the three sensitivity runs.

Dynamics and transport in the stratosphere : Simulations with a general circulation mode

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Aalst, Maarten Krispijn

2005-01-01

The middle atmosphere is strongly affected by two of the world's most important environmental problems: global climate change and stratospheric ozone depletion, caused by anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases and chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), respectively. General circulation models with coupled chemistry are a key tool to advance our understanding of the complex interplay between dynamics, chemistry and radiation in the middle atmosphere. A key problem of such models is that they generate their own meteorology, and thus cannot be used for comparisons with instantaneous measurements. This thesis presents the first application of a simple data assimilation method, Newtonian relaxation, to reproduce realistic synoptical conditions in a state-of-the-art middle atmosphere general circulation model, MA-ECHAM. By nudging the model's meteorology slightly towards analyzed observations from a weather forecasting system (ECMWF), we have simulated specific atmospheric processes during particular meteorological episodes, such as the 1999/2000 Arctic winter. The nudging technique is intended to interfere as little as possible with the model's own dynamics. In fact, we found that we could even limit the nudging to the troposphere, leaving the middle atmosphere entirely free. In that setup, the model realistically reproduced many aspects of the instantaneous meteorology of the middle atmosphere, such as the unusually early major warming and breakup of the 2002 Antarctic vortex. However, we found that this required careful interpolation of the nudging data, and a correct choice of nudging parameters. We obtained the best results when we first projected the nudging data onto the model's normal modes so that we could filter out the (spurious) fast components. In a four-year simulation, for which we also introduced an additional nudging of the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation, we found that the model reproduced much of the interannual variability throughout the stratosphere, including the Antarctic temperature minima crucial for polar ozone chemistry, but failed to capture the precise timing and evolution of Arctic stratospheric warmings. We also identified an important model deficiency regarding tracer transport in the lower polar stratosphere. The success of the runs with tropospheric nudging in simulating the right stratospheric conditions, including the model capability to forecast major stratospheric warming events, bodes well for the model's representation of the dynamic coupling between the troposphere and the stratosphere, an important element of realistic simulation of the future climate of the middle atmosphere (which will partly depend on a changing wave forcing from the troposphere). However, for some aspects of stratospheric dynamics, such as the quasi-biennial oscillation, a higher vertical resolution is required, which might also help to reduce some of the transport problems identified in the lower polar vortex. The nudging technique applied and developed in this thesis offers excellent prospects for applications in coupled-chemistry simulations of the middle atmosphere, including for the interpretation of instantaneous measurements. In particular, it can be used to test and improve the new MA-ECHAM5/MESSy/MECCA coupled chemistry climate model system, in preparation for more reliable simulations of past and future climates.

Assessment of two physical parameterization schemes for desert dust emissions in an atmospheric chemistry general circulation model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Astitha, M.; Abdel Kader, M.; Pozzer, A.; Lelieveld, J.

2012-04-01

Atmospheric particulate matter and more specific desert dust has been the topic of numerous research studies in the past due to the wide range of impacts in the environment and climate and the uncertainty of characterizing and quantifying these impacts in a global scale. In this work we present two physical parameterizations of the desert dust production that have been incorporated in the atmospheric chemistry general circulation model EMAC (ECHAM5/MESSy2.41 Atmospheric Chemistry). The scope of this work is to assess the impact of the two physical parameterizations in the global distribution of desert dust and highlight the advantages and disadvantages of using either technique. The dust concentration and deposition has been evaluated using the AEROCOM dust dataset for the year 2000 and data from the MODIS and MISR satellites as well as sun-photometer data from the AERONET network was used to compare the modelled aerosol optical depth with observations. The implementation of the two parameterizations and the simulations using relatively high spatial resolution (T106~1.1deg) has highlighted the large spatial heterogeneity of the dust emission sources as well as the importance of the input parameters (soil size and texture, vegetation, surface wind speed). Also, sensitivity simulations with the nudging option using reanalysis data from ECMWF and without nudging have showed remarkable differences for some areas. Both parameterizations have revealed the difficulty of simulating all arid regions with the same assumptions and mechanisms. Depending on the arid region, each emission scheme performs more or less satisfactorily which leads to the necessity of treating each desert differently. Even though this is a quite different task to accomplish in a global model, some recommendations are given and ideas for future improvements.

Distribution of N2O in the atmosphere under global warming - a simulation study with the MPI Earth System Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kracher, Daniela; Manzini, Elisa; Reick, Christian H.; Schultz, Martin; Stein, Olaf

2014-05-01

Climate change is driven by an increasing release of anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs) such as carbon dioxide and nitrous oxide (N2O). Besides fossil fuel burning, also land use change and land management are anthropogenic sources of GHGs. Especially inputs of reactive nitrogen via fertilizer and deposition lead to enhanced emissions of N2O. One effect of a drastic future increase in surface temperature is a modification of atmospheric circulation, e.g. an accelerated Brewer Dobson circulation affecting the exchange between troposphere and stratosphere. N2O is inert in the troposphere and decayed only in the stratosphere. Thus, changes in atmospheric circulation, especially changes in the exchange between troposphere and stratosphere, will affect the atmospheric transport, decay, and distribution of N2O. In our study we assess the impact of global warming on atmospheric circulation and implied effects on the distribution and lifetime of atmospheric N2O. As terrestrial N2O emissions are highly determined by inputs of reactive nitrogen - the location of which being determined by human choice - we examine in particular the importance of latitudinal source regions of N2O for its global distribution. For this purpose we apply the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model, MPI-ESM. MPI-ESM consists of the atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM, the land surface model JSBACH, and MPIOM/HAMOCC representing ocean circulation and ocean biogeochemistry. Prognostic atmospheric N2O concentrations in MPI-ESM are determined by land N2O emissions, ocean N2O exchange and atmospheric tracer transport. As stratospheric chemistry is not explicitly represented in MPI-ESM, stratospheric decay rates of N2O are prescribed from a MACC MOZART simulation.

Progress in Global Multicompartmental Modelling of DDT

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stemmler, I.; Lammel, G.

2009-04-01

Dichlorophenyltrichloroethane, DDT, and its major metabolite dichlorophenyldichloroethylene, DDE, are long-lived in the environment (persistent) and circulate since the 1950s. They accumulate along food chains, cause detrimental effects in marine and terrestrial wild life, and pose a hazard for human health. DDT was widely used as an insecticide in the past and is still in use in a number of tropical countries to combat vector borne diseases like malaria and typhus. It is a multicompartmental substance with only a small mass fraction residing in air. A global multicompartment chemistry transport model (MPI-MCTM; Semeena et al., 2006) is used to study the environmental distribution and fate of dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT). For the first time a horizontally and vertically resolved global model was used to perform a long-term simulation of DDT and DDE. The model is based on general circulation models for the ocean (MPIOM; Marsland et al., 2003) and atmosphere (ECHAM5). In addition, an oceanic biogeochemistry model (HAMOCC5.1; Maier-Reimer et al., 2005 ) and a microphysical aerosol model (HAM; Stier et al., 2005 ) are included. Multicompartmental substances are cycling in atmosphere (3 phases), ocean (3 phases), top soil (3 phases), and vegetation surfaces. The model was run for 40 years forced with historical agricultural application data of 1950-1990. The model results show that the global environmental contamination started to decrease in air, soil and vegetation after the applications peaked in 1965-70. In some regions, however, the DDT mass had not yet reached a maximum in 1990 and was still accumulating mass until the end of the simulation. Modelled DDT and DDE concentrations in atmosphere, ocean and soil are evaluated by comparison with observational data. The evaluation of the model results indicate that degradation of DDE in air was underestimated. Also for DDT, the discrepancies between model results and observations are related to uncertainties of input parameters. Furthermore, better resolution of some processes could improve model performance. References: Marsland S.J., Haak H., Jungclaus J.H., Latif M., Röske F. (2003): The Max-Planck-Institute global ocean/sea ice model with orthogonal curvilinear coordinates. Ocean Modelling 5, 91-127 Maier-Reimer E. , Kriest I., Segschneider J., Wetzel P. : The HAMburg Ocean Carbon Cycle Model HAMOCC 5.1 - Technical Description Release 1.1 (2005),Reports on Earth System Science 14 Stier P. , Feichter J. (2005), Kinne S., Kloster S., Vignati E., Wilson J.Ganzeveld L., Tegen I., Werner M., Blakanski Y., Schulz M., Boucher O., Minikin A., Petzold A.: The aerosol-climate model ECHAM5-HAM. Atmos. Chem. Phys 5, 1125-1156 Semeena V.S., Feichter J., Lammel G. (2006): Impact of the regional climate and substance properties on the fate and atmospheric long-range transport of persistent organic pollutants - examples of DDT and γ-HCH. Atmos. Chem. Phys. 6, 1231-1248

GCM simulations of cold dry Snowball Earth atmospheres

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Voigt, A.; Held, I.; Marotzke, J.

2009-12-01

We use the full-physics atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM5 to investigate cold and virtually dry Snowball Earth atmospheres. These result from specifying sea ice as the surface boundary condition everywhere, corresponding to a frozen aquaplanet, while keeping total solar irradiance at its present-day value of 1365 Wm-2 and setting atmospheric carbon dioxide to 300 ppmv. Here, we present four simulations corresponding to the four possible combinations of enabled or disabled diurnal and seasonal cycles. The aim of this study is twofold. First, we focus on the zonal-mean circulation of Snowball Earth atmospheres, which, due to missing moisture, might constitute an ideal though yet unexplored testbed for theories of atmospheric dynamics. Second, we investigate tropical surface temperatures with an emphasis on the impact of the diurnal and seasonal cycles. This will indicate whether the presence of the diurnal or seasonal cycle would facilitate or anticipate the escape from Snowball Earth conditions when total solar irradiance or atmospheric CO2 levels were increased. The dynamics of the tropical circulation in Snowball Earth atmospheres differs substantially from that in the modern atmosphere. The analysis of the mean zonal momentum budget reveals that the mean flow meridional advection of absolute vorticity is primarily balanced by vertical diffusion of zonal momentum. The contribution of eddies is found to be even smaller than the contribution of mean flow vertical advection of zonal momentum, the latter being usually neglected in theories for the Hadley circulation, at least in its upper tropospheric branch. Suppressing vertical diffusion of horizontal momentum above 850 hPa leads to a stronger Hadley circulation. This behaviour cannot be understood from axisymmetric models of the atmosphere, nor idealized atmospheric general circulation models, which both predict a weakening of the Hadley circulation when the vertical viscosity is decreased globally. We find that enabling the diurnal cycle does not change tropical annual-mean surface temperatures but significantly strengthens the Hadley circulation, which increases by 33% for equinoctial and by 50% during solstitial insolation conditions compared to simulations without diurnal cycle. Including the seasonal cycle results in a ''reversed'' annual-mean Hadley circulation with subsiding motion at the equator and ascending motion around 15N/S, a manifestation of the extreme seasonality of Snowball Earth atmospheres due to the low thermal inertia of the sea-ice surface. The impact of the seasonal cycle on the tropical annual-mean surface is a straightforward consequence of changes in insolation distribution: as annual-mean incoming shortwave radiation at the equator reduces by 18 Wm-2 for enabled seasonal cycle, tropical annual-mean surface temperatures decrease from 221 K to 217 K.

Projected future wave climate in the NW Mediterranean Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Casas-Prat, M.; Sierra, J. P.

2013-07-01

Projected future regional wave climate scenarios at a high temporal-spatial scale were obtained for the NW Mediterranean Sea, using five combinations of regional-global circulation models. Changes in wave variables were analyzed and related to the variations of the forcing wind projections, while also evaluating the evolution of the presence of the different types of sea states. To assess the significance of the changes produced, a bootstrap-based method was proposed, which accounts for the autocorrelation of data and correctly reproduces the extremes. For the mean climate, relative changes of Hs up to ±10% were obtained, whereas they were around ±20% for the extreme climate. In mean terms, variations of Hs are similar to those associated with wind speed but are enhanced/attenuated, respectively, when fetch conditions are favorable/unfavorable. In general, most notable alterations are not in the Hs magnitude but rather in its direction. In this regard, during the winter season, it is interesting to note that the significant deviations between the results derived from the two global circulation models are larger than those between regional models. ECHAM5 simulated an enhanced west wind flow that is translated into more frequent W-NW waves, whereas the HadCM3Q3 global model gives rise to the east component, which contributes to a higher intensity and number of storms coming from such a direction and directly affects the wind-sea/swell distribution of coastal stretches that face east, like the Catalan coast. Different patterns of change were obtained during the summer when a common rise of NE-E waves was found.

Impacts of deforestation and afforestation in the Mediterranean region as simulated by the MPI atmospheric GCM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dümenil Gates, Lydia; Ließ, Stefan

2001-10-01

For two reasons it is important to study the sensitivity of the global climate to changes in the vegetation cover over land. First, in the real world, changes in the vegetation cover may have regional and global implications. Second, in numerical simulations, the sensitivity of the simulated climate may depend on the specific parameterization schemes employed in the model and on the model's large-scale systematic errors. The Max-Planck-Institute's global general circulation model ECHAM4 has been used to study the sensitivity of the local and global climate during a full annual cycle to deforestation and afforestation in the Mediterranean region. The deforestation represents an extreme desertification scenario for this region. The changes in the afforestation experiment are based on the pattern of the vegetation cover 2000 years before present when the climate in the Mediterranean was more humid. The comparison of the deforestation integration to the control shows a slight cooling at the surface and reduced precipitation during the summer as a result of less evapotranspiration of plants and less evaporation from the assumption of eroded soils. There is no significant signal during the winter season due to the stronger influence of the mid-latitude baroclinic disturbances. In general, the results of the afforestation experiment are opposite to those of the deforestation case. A significant response was found in the vicinity of grid points where the land surface characteristics were modified. The response in the Sahara in the afforestation experiment is in agreement with the results from other general circulation model studies.

Predicting the Timing of Cherry Blossoms in Washington, DC and Mid-Atlantic States in Response to Climate Change

PubMed Central

Chung, Uran; Mack, Liz; Yun, Jin I.; Kim, Soo-Hyung

2011-01-01

Cherry blossoms, an icon of spring, are celebrated in many cultures of the temperate region. For its sensitivity to winter and early spring temperatures, the timing of cherry blossoms is an ideal indicator of the impacts of climate change on tree phenology. Here, we applied a process-based phenology model for temperate deciduous trees to predict peak bloom dates (PBD) of flowering cherry trees (Prunus×yedoensis ‘Yoshino’ and Prunus serrulata ‘Kwanzan’) in the Tidal Basin, Washington, DC and the surrounding Mid-Atlantic States in response to climate change. We parameterized the model with observed PBD data from 1991 to 2010. The calibrated model was tested against independent datasets of the past PBD data from 1951 to 1970 in the Tidal Basin and more recent PBD data from other locations (e.g., Seattle, WA). The model performance against these independent data was satisfactory (Yoshino: r2 = 0.57, RMSE = 6.6 days, bias = 0.9 days and Kwanzan: r2 = 0.76, RMSE = 5.5 days, bias = −2.0 days). We then applied the model to forecast future PBD for the region using downscaled climate projections based on IPCC's A1B and A2 emissions scenarios. Our results indicate that PBD at the Tidal Basin are likely to be accelerated by an average of five days by 2050 s and 10 days by 2080 s for these cultivars under a mid-range (A1B) emissions scenario projected by ECHAM5 general circulation model. The acceleration is likely to be much greater (13 days for 2050 s and 29 days for 2080s ) under a higher (A2) emissions scenario projected by CGCM2 general circulation model. Our results demonstrate the potential impacts of climate change on the timing of cherry blossoms and illustrate the utility of a simple process-based phenology model for developing adaptation strategies to climate change in horticulture, conservation planning, restoration and other related disciplines. PMID:22087317

Atmospheric winter response to Arctic sea ice changes in reanalysis data and model simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jaiser, Ralf; Nakamura, Tetsu; Handorf, Dörthe; Romanowsky, Erik; Dethloff, Klaus; Ukita, Jinro; Yamazaki, Koji

2017-04-01

In recent years, Arctic regions showcased the most pronounced signals of a changing climate: Sea ice is reduced by more the ten percent per decade. At the same time, global warming trends have their maximum in Arctic latitudes often labled Arctic Amplification. There is strong evidence that amplified Arctic changes feed back into mid-latitudes in winter. We identified mechanisms that link recent Arctic changes through vertically propagating planetary waves to events of a weakened stratospheric polar vortex. Related anomalies propagate downward and lead to negative AO-like situations in the troposphere. European winter climate is sensitive to negative AO situations in terms of cold air outbreaks that are likely to occur more often in that case. These results based on ERA-Interim reanalysis data do not allow to dismiss other potential forcing factors leading to observed mid-latitude climate changes. Nevertheless, properly designed Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) experiments with AFES and ECHAM6 are able to reproduce observed atmospheric circulation changes if only observed sea ice changes in the Arctic are prescribed. This allows to deduce mechanisms that explain how Arctic Amplification can lead to a negative AO response via a stratospheric pathway. Further investigation of these mechanisms may feed into improved prediction systems.

Assessment of regional climate change and development of climate adaptation decision aids in the Southwestern US

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Darmenova, K.; Higgins, G.; Kiley, H.; Apling, D.

2010-12-01

Current General Circulation Models (GCMs) provide a valuable estimate of both natural and anthropogenic climate changes and variability on global scales. At the same time, future climate projections calculated with GCMs are not of sufficient spatial resolution to address regional needs. Many climate impact models require information at scales of 50 km or less, so dynamical downscaling is often used to estimate the smaller-scale information based on larger scale GCM output. To address current deficiencies in local planning and decision making with respect to regional climate change, our research is focused on performing a dynamical downscaling with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and developing decision aids that translate the regional climate data into actionable information for users. Our methodology involves development of climatological indices of extreme weather and heating/cooling degree days based on WRF ensemble runs initialized with the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis and the European Center/Hamburg Model (ECHAM5). Results indicate that the downscale simulations provide the necessary detailed output required by state and local governments and the private sector to develop climate adaptation plans. In addition we evaluated the WRF performance in long-term climate simulations over the Southwestern US and validated against observational datasets.

Ajustement statistique des simulations climatiques : l'exemple des précipitations saisonnières de l'Amérique tropicaleStatistical adjustment of simulated climate: example of seasonal rainfall of tropical America.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moron, Vincent; Navarra, Antonio

2000-05-01

This study presents the skill of the seasonal rainfall of tropical America from an ensemble of three 34-year general circulation model (ECHAM 4) simulations forced with observed sea surface temperature between 1961 and 1994. The skill gives a first idea of the amount of potential predictability if the sea surface temperatures are perfectly known some time in advance. We use statistical post-processing based on the leading modes (extracted from Singular Value Decomposition of the covariance matrix between observed and simulated rainfall fields) to improve the raw skill obtained by simple comparison between observations and simulations. It is shown that 36-55 % of the observed seasonal variability is explained by the simulations on a regional basis. Skill is greatest for Brazilian Nordeste (March-May), but also for northern South America or the Caribbean basin in June-September or northern Amazonia in September-November for example.

Pinatubo eruption winter climate effects: Model versus observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Graf, HANS-F.; Kirchner, Ingo; Schult, Ingrid; Robock, Alan

1992-01-01

Large volcanic eruptions, in addition to the well-known effect of producing global cooling for a year or two, have been observed to produce shorter-term responses in the climate system involving non-linear dynamical processes. In this paper, we use the ECHAM2 general circulation model forced with stratospheric aerosols to test some of these ideas. Run in a perpetual-January mode, with tropical stratospheric heating from the volcanic aerosols typical of the 1982 El Chichon eruption or the 1991 Pinatubo eruption, we find a dynamical response with an increased polar night jet in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and stronger zonal winds which extended down into the troposphere. The Azores High shifts northward with increased tropospheric westerlies at 60N and increased easterlies at 30N. Surface temperatures are higher both in northern Eurasia and North America, in agreement with observations for the NH winters or 1982-83 and 1991-92 as well as the winters following the other 10 largest volcanic eruptions since 1883.

The on-line coupled atmospheric chemistry model system MECO(n) - Part 5: Expanding the Multi-Model-Driver (MMD v2.0) for 2-way data exchange including data interpolation via GRID (v1.0)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kerkweg, Astrid; Hofmann, Christiane; Jöckel, Patrick; Mertens, Mariano; Pante, Gregor

2018-03-01

As part of the Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy), the Multi-Model-Driver (MMD v1.0) was developed to couple online the regional Consortium for Small-scale Modeling (COSMO) model into a driving model, which can be either the regional COSMO model or the global European Centre Hamburg general circulation model (ECHAM) (see Part 2 of the model documentation). The coupled system is called MECO(n), i.e., MESSy-fied ECHAM and COSMO models nested n times. In this article, which is part of the model documentation of the MECO(n) system, the second generation of MMD is introduced. MMD comprises the message-passing infrastructure required for the parallel execution (multiple programme multiple data, MPMD) of different models and the communication of the individual model instances, i.e. between the driving and the driven models. Initially, the MMD library was developed for a one-way coupling between the global chemistry-climate ECHAM/MESSy atmospheric chemistry (EMAC) model and an arbitrary number of (optionally cascaded) instances of the regional chemistry-climate model COSMO/MESSy. Thus, MMD (v1.0) provided only functions for unidirectional data transfer, i.e. from the larger-scale to the smaller-scale models.Soon, extended applications requiring data transfer from the small-scale model back to the larger-scale model became of interest. For instance, the original fields of the larger-scale model can directly be compared to the upscaled small-scale fields to analyse the improvements gained through the small-scale calculations, after the results are upscaled. Moreover, the fields originating from the two different models might be fed into the same diagnostic tool, e.g. the online calculation of the radiative forcing calculated consistently with the same radiation scheme. Last but not least, enabling the two-way data transfer between two models is the first important step on the way to a fully dynamical and chemical two-way coupling of the various model instances.In MMD (v1.0), interpolation between the base model grids is performed via the COSMO preprocessing tool INT2LM, which was implemented into the MMD submodel for online interpolation, specifically for mapping onto the rotated COSMO grid. A more flexible algorithm is required for the backward mapping. Thus, MMD (v2.0) uses the new MESSy submodel GRID for the generalised definition of arbitrary grids and for the transformation of data between them.In this article, we explain the basics of the MMD expansion and the newly developed generic MESSy submodel GRID (v1.0) and show some examples of the abovementioned applications.

Aerosol processing in stratiform clouds in ECHAM6-HAM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neubauer, David; Lohmann, Ulrike; Hoose, Corinna

2013-04-01

Aerosol processing in stratiform clouds by uptake into cloud particles, collision-coalescence, chemical processing inside the cloud particles and release back into the atmosphere has important effects on aerosol concentration, size distribution, chemical composition and mixing state. Aerosol particles can act as cloud condensation nuclei. Cloud droplets can take up further aerosol particles by collisions. Atmospheric gases may also be transferred into the cloud droplets and undergo chemical reactions, e.g. the production of atmospheric sulphate. Aerosol particles are also processed in ice crystals. They may be taken up by homogeneous freezing of cloud droplets below -38° C or by heterogeneous freezing above -38° C. This includes immersion freezing of already immersed aerosol particles in the droplets and contact freezing of particles colliding with a droplet. Many clouds do not form precipitation and also much of the precipitation evaporates before it reaches the ground. The water soluble part of the aerosol particles concentrates in the hydrometeors and together with the insoluble part forms a single, mixed, larger particle, which is released. We have implemented aerosol processing into the current version of the general circulation model ECHAM6 (Stevens et al., 2013) coupled to the aerosol module HAM (Stier et al., 2005). ECHAM6-HAM solves prognostic equations for the cloud droplet number and ice crystal number concentrations. In the standard version of HAM, seven modes are used to describe the total aerosol. The modes are divided into soluble/mixed and insoluble modes and the number concentrations and masses of different chemical components (sulphate, black carbon, organic carbon, sea salt and mineral dust) are prognostic variables. We extended this by an explicit representation of aerosol particles in cloud droplets and ice crystals in stratiform clouds similar to Hoose et al. (2008a,b). Aerosol particles in cloud droplets are represented by 5 tracers for the chemical components as well as 5 tracers for aerosol particles in ice crystals. This allows simulations of aerosol processing in warm, mixed-phase (e.g. through the Bergeron-Findeisen process) and ice clouds. The fixed scavenging ratios used for wet deposition in clouds in standard HAM are replaced by an explicit treatment of collision of cloud droplets/ice crystals with interstitial aerosol particles. Nucleation scavenging of aerosol particles by acting as cloud condensation nuclei or ice nuclei, freezing and evaporation of cloud droplets and melting and sublimation of ice crystals are treated explicitly. In extension to previous studies, aerosol particles from evaporating precipitation are released to modes which correspond to their size. Cloud processing of aerosol particles changes their size distribution and hence influences cloud droplet and ice crystal number concentrations as well as precipitation rate, which in turn affects aerosol concentrations. Results will be presented at the conference. Hoose et al., JGR, 2008a, doi: 10.1029/2007JD009251 Hoose et al., ACP, 2008b, doi: 10.5194/acp-8-6939-2008 Stevens et al., 2013, submitted Stier et al., ACP, 2005, doi: 10.5194/acp-5-1125-2005

An "island" in the stratosphere - on the enhanced annual variation of water vapour in the middle and upper stratosphere in the southern tropics and subtropics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lossow, Stefan; Garny, Hella; Jöckel, Patrick

2017-09-01

The amplitude of the annual variation in water vapour exhibits a distinct isolated maximum in the middle and upper stratosphere in the southern tropics and subtropics, peaking typically around 15° S in latitude and close to 3 hPa (˜ 40.5 km) in altitude. This enhanced annual variation is primarily related to the Brewer-Dobson circulation and hence also visible in other trace gases. So far this feature has not gained much attention in the literature and the present work aims to add more prominence. Using Envisat/MIPAS (Environmental Satellite/Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding) observations and ECHAM/MESSy (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Hamburg/Modular Earth Submodel System) Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) simulations we provide a dedicated illustration and a full account of the reasons for this enhanced annual variation.

Evaluation of a Mineral Dust Simulation in the Atmospheric-Chemistry General Circulation Model-EMAC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abdel Kader, M.; Astitha, M.; Lelieveld, J.

2012-04-01

This study presents an evaluation of the atmospheric mineral dust cycle in the Atmospheric Chemistry General Circulation Model (AC-GCM) using new developed dust emissions scheme. The dust cycle, as an integral part of the Earth System, plays an important role in the Earth's energy balance by both direct and indirect ways. As an aerosol, it significantly impacts the absorption and scattering of radiation in the atmosphere and can modify the optical properties of clouds and snow/ice surfaces. In addition, dust contributes to a range of physical, chemical and bio-geological processes that interact with the cycles of carbon and water. While our knowledge of the dust cycle, its impacts and interactions with the other global-scale bio-geochemical cycles has greatly advanced in the last decades, large uncertainties and knowledge gaps still exist. Improving the dust simulation in global models is essential to minimize the uncertainties in the model results related to dust. In this study, the results are based on the ECHAM5 Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy) AC-GCM simulations using T106L31 spectral resolution (about 120km ) with 31 vertical levels. The GMXe aerosol submodel is used to simulate the phase changes of the dust particles between soluble and insoluble modes. Dust emission, transport and deposition (wet and dry) are calculated on-line along with the meteorological parameters in every model time step. The preliminary evaluation of the dust concentration and deposition are presented based on ground observations from various campaigns as well as the evaluation of the optical properties of dust using AERONET and satellite (MODIS and MISR) observations. Preliminarily results show good agreement with observations for dust deposition and optical properties. In addition, the global dust emissions, load, deposition and lifetime is in good agreement with the published results. Also, the uncertainties in the dust cycle that contribute to the overall model performance will be briefly discussed as it is a subject of future work.

The Stochastic Multicloud Model as part of an operational convection parameterisation in a comprehensive GCM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peters, Karsten; Jakob, Christian; Möbis, Benjamin

2015-04-01

An adequate representation of convective processes in numerical models of the atmospheric circulation (general circulation models, GCMs) remains one of the grand challenges in atmospheric science. In particular, the models struggle with correctly representing the spatial distribution and high variability of tropical convection. It is thought that this model deficiency partly results from formulating current convection parameterisation schemes in a purely deterministic manner. Here, we use observations of tropical convection to inform the design of a novel convection parameterisation with stochastic elements. The novel scheme is built around the Stochastic MultiCloud Model (SMCM, Khouider et al 2010). We present the progress made in utilising SMCM-based estimates of updraft area fractions at cloud base as part of the deep convection scheme of a GCM. The updraft area fractions are used to yield one part of the cloud base mass-flux used in the closure assumption of convective mass-flux schemes. The closure thus receives a stochastic component, potentially improving modeled convective variability and coherence. For initial investigations, we apply the above methodology to the operational convective parameterisation of the ECHAM6 GCM. We perform 5-year AMIP simulations, i.e. with prescribed observed SSTs. We find that with the SMCM, convection is weaker and more coherent and continuous from timestep to timestep compared to the standard model. Total global precipitation is reduced in the SMCM run, but this reduces i) the overall error compared to observed global precipitation (GPCP) and ii) middle tropical tropospheric temperature biases compared to ERA-Interim. Hovmoeller diagrams indicate a slightly higher degree of convective organisation compared to the base case and Wheeler-Kiladis frequency wavenumber diagrams indicate slightly more spectral power in the MJO range.

Heinrich events modeled in transient glacial simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ziemen, Florian; Kapsch, Marie; Mikolajewicz, Uwe

2017-04-01

Heinrich events are among the most prominent events of climate variability recorded in proxies across the northern hemisphere. They are the archetype of ice sheet — climate interactions on millennial time scales. Nevertheless, the exact mechanisms that cause Heinrich events are still under debate, and their climatic consequences are far from being fully understood. We address open questions by studying Heinrich events in a coupled ice sheet model (ISM) atmosphere-ocean-vegetation general circulation model (AOVGCM) framework, where this variability occurs as part of the model generated internal variability. The framework consists of a northern hemisphere setup of the modified Parallel Ice Sheet Model (mPISM) coupled to the global AOVGCM ECHAM5/MPIOM/LPJ. The simulations were performed fully coupled and with transient orbital and greenhouse gas forcing. They span from several millennia before the last glacial maximum into the deglaciation. To make these long simulations feasible, the atmosphere is accelerated by a factor of 10 relative to the other model components using a periodical-synchronous coupling technique. To disentangle effects of the Heinrich events and the deglaciation, we focus on the events occurring before the deglaciation. The modeled Heinrich events show a peak ice discharge of about 0.05 Sv and raise the sea level by 2.3 m on average. The resulting surface water freshening reduces the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and ocean heat release. The reduction in ocean heat release causes a sub-surface warming and decreases the air temperature and precipitation regionally and downstream into Eurasia. The surface elevation decrease of the ice sheet enhances moisture transport onto the ice sheet and thus increases precipitation over the Hudson Bay area, thereby accelerating the recovery after an event.

Simulation of a dust episode over Eastern Mediterranean using a high-resolution atmospheric chemistry general circulation model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abdel Kader, Mohamed; Zittis, Georgios; Astitha, Marina; Lelieveld, Jos; Tymvios, Fillipos

2013-04-01

An extended episode of low visibility took place over the Eastern Mediterranean in late September 2011, caused by a strong increase in dust concentrations, analyzed from observations of PM10 (Particulate Matter with <10μm in diameter). A high-resolution version of the atmospheric chemistry general circulation model EMAC (ECHAM5/Messy2.41 Atmospheric Chemistry) was used to simulate the emissions, transport and deposition of airborne desert dust. The model configuration involves the spectral resolution of T255 (0.5°, ~50Km) and 31 vertical levels in the troposphere and lower stratosphere. The model was nudged towards ERA40 reanalysis data to represent the actual meteorological conditions. The dust emissions were calculated online at each model time step and the aerosol microphysics using the GMXe submodel (Global Modal-aerosol eXtension). The model includes a sulphur chemistry mechanism to simulate the transformation of the dust particles from the insoluble (at emission) to soluble modes, which promotes dust removal by precipitation. The model successfully reproduces the dust distribution according to observations by the MODIS satellite instruments and ground-based AERONET stations. The PM10 concentration is also compared with in-situ measurements over Cyprus, resulting in good agreement. The model results show two subsequent dust events originating from the Negev and Sahara deserts. The first dust event resulted from the transport of dust from the Sahara on the 21st of September and lasted only briefly (hours) as the dust particles were efficiently removed by precipitation simulated by the model and observed by the TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) satellites. The second event resulted from dust transport from the Negev desert to the Eastern Mediterranean during the period 26th - 30th September with a peak concentration at 2500m elevation. This event lasted for four days and diminished due to dry deposition. The observed reduced visibility over Cyprus resulted from the sedimentation of dust originating from the Negev, followed by dry deposition at the surface. The dust particles were both pristine and polluted (sulphate coated), and we evaluate the role of mixing in the duration and extent of the episodes.

Aerosol processing in mixed-phase clouds in ECHAM5-HAM: Model description and comparison to observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoose, C.; Lohmann, U.; Stier, P.; Verheggen, B.; Weingartner, E.

2008-04-01

The global aerosol-climate model ECHAM5-HAM has been extended by an explicit treatment of cloud-borne particles. Two additional modes for in-droplet and in-crystal particles are introduced, which are coupled to the number of cloud droplet and ice crystal concentrations simulated by the ECHAM5 double-moment cloud microphysics scheme. Transfer, production, and removal of cloud-borne aerosol number and mass by cloud droplet activation, collision scavenging, aqueous-phase sulfate production, freezing, melting, evaporation, sublimation, and precipitation formation are taken into account. The model performance is demonstrated and validated with observations of the evolution of total and interstitial aerosol concentrations and size distributions during three different mixed-phase cloud events at the alpine high-altitude research station Jungfraujoch (Switzerland). Although the single-column simulations cannot be compared one-to-one with the observations, the governing processes in the evolution of the cloud and aerosol parameters are captured qualitatively well. High scavenged fractions are found during the presence of liquid water, while the release of particles during the Bergeron-Findeisen process results in low scavenged fractions after cloud glaciation. The observed coexistence of liquid and ice, which might be related to cloud heterogeneity at subgrid scales, can only be simulated in the model when assuming nonequilibrium conditions.

The impact of Tibet and the Andes on the climate and isotopic composition of precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Battisti, D. S.; Ding, Q.; Liu, X.; Roe, G.

2012-12-01

We summarize modeling and theoretical evidence for the impact of the high topography in Tibet and the Andes on the climate and the isotopic (δ18O) composition of precipitation, regionally and globally. Tibet controls the seasonal cycle of precipitation over eastern China, mainly via dynamical processes, and has little to no impact on the Indian and southeast Asian monsoons. Tibet is also responsible for the northwesterly winds and extraordinary cold winters in northern China, and contributes to the mid-winter suppression of storminess in the western and central Pacific. The Andes greatly shape the climatological precipitation over South America, and are an important contributor to the annual cycle in sea surface temperature, precipitation and atmospheric circulation throughout the eastern half of the tropical Pacific. We have performed a series of numerical experiments with the isotope-enabled ECHAM 4.6 atmospheric general circulation model to illuminate the impact of the Andes and Tibet on the regional distribution of oxygen isotopes in precipitation. Experiments to be discussed include a world without an elevated Andes circa 12 million years BP, and a series of experiments that prescribed a plausible evolution of the continental geometry and topography for the past 50 million years in and around the Indian Ocean basin. In the latter case, additional idealized experiments are performed to illuminate the separate impacts of topography and continental configuration.

Climate Change, Public Health, and Decision Support: The New Threat of Vector-borne Disease

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grant, F.; Kumar, S.

2011-12-01

Climate change and vector-borne diseases constitute a massive threat to human development. It will not be enough to cut emissions of greenhouse gases-the tide of the future has already been established. Climate change and vector-borne diseases are already undermining the world's efforts to reduce extreme poverty. It is in the best interests of the world leaders to think in terms of concerted global actions, but adaptation and mitigation must be accomplished within the context of local community conditions, resources, and needs. Failure to act will continue to consign developed countries to completely avoidable health risks and significant expense. Failure to act will also reduce poorest of the world's population-some 2.6 billion people-to a future of diminished opportunity. Northrop Grumman has taken significant steps forward to develop the tools needed to assess climate change impacts on public health, collect relevant data for decision making, model projections at regional and local levels; and, deliver information and knowledge to local and regional stakeholders. Supporting these tools is an advanced enterprise architecture consisting of high performance computing, GIS visualization, and standards-based architecture. To address current deficiencies in local planning and decision making with respect to regional climate change and its effect on human health, our research is focused on performing a dynamical downscaling with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to develop decision aids that translate the regional climate data into actionable information for users. For the present climate WRF was forced with the Max Planck Institute European Center/Hamburg Model version 5 (ECHAM5) General Circulation Model 20th century simulation. For the 21th century climate, we used an ECHAM5 simulation with the Special Report on Emissions (SRES) A1B emissions scenario. WRF was run in nested mode at spatial resolution of 108 km, 36 km and 12 km and 28 vertical levels. This model was examined relative to two mosquito vectors, both competent carriers of dengue fever, a viral, vector-borne disease. Models which incorporate public health considerations can enable decision makers to take proactive steps to mitigate the impacts and adapt to the changing environmental conditions. In this paper we provide a snapshot of our climate initiative and some examples relative to our public health practice work in vector-borne diseases to illustrate how integrated decision support could be of assistance to regional and local communities worldwide.

Global Warming In A Regional Model of The Atlantic Ocean - Echam4/opyc3 In Flame 4/3

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schweckendiek, U.; Willebrand, J.

The reaction of the Thermohaline Circulation (THC) in most climate models on global warming scenarios is a weakening of the THC. An exception is the ECHAM4/OPYC3 simulation whose stable behaviour is traced back to a strongly enhanced evaporation and as a consequence to a development of a salt anomaly in the tropics and subtropics of the Atlantic Ocean (Latif et al.,2000). This salt signal is advected into convection regions and compensates the reduction of surface density due to surface heating and freshening. To examine this scenario for a more realistic ocean model, data from this model is used to drive a reginal model of the Atlantic Ocean. In order to test the crucial mechanisms for the maintainance of the meridional overturning, we have performed sensitivity studies by focussing on different combinations of the anomalous freshwater and heat fluxes. The results demonstrate that for the stabilising effect to become effective the salt sig- nal has to enter the GIN-Seas and subsequently the overflow waters, underlining the importance of the overflows for the THC. The Labrador Sea Convection is however uneffected by this stabilising salt signal and its convection ultimatly breaks down un- der surface warming and freshening.

Hydrogen peroxide in the marine boundary layer over the South Atlantic during the OOMPH cruise in March 2007

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fischer, H.; Pozzer, A.; Schmitt, T.; Jöckel, P.; Klippel, T.; Taraborrelli, D.; Lelieveld, J.

2015-06-01

In the OOMPH (Ocean Organics Modifying Particles in both Hemispheres) project a ship measurement cruise took place in the late austral summer from 01 to 23 March 2007. The French research vessel Marion Dufresne sailed from Punta Arenas, Chile (70.85° W, 53.12° S), to Réunion island (55.36° E, 21.06° S) across the South Atlantic Ocean. In situ measurements of hydrogen peroxide, methylhydroperoxide and ozone were performed and are compared to simulations with the atmospheric chemistry global circulation model EMAC (ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry). The model generally reproduces the measured trace gas levels, but it underestimates hydrogen peroxide mixing ratios at high wind speeds, indicating too-strong dry deposition to the ocean surface. An interesting feature during the cruise is a strong increase of hydrogen peroxide, methylhydroperoxide and ozone shortly after midnight off the west coast of Africa due to an increase in the boundary layer height, leading to downward transport from the free troposphere, which is qualitatively reproduced by the model.

Impact of physical permafrost processes on hydrological change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hagemann, Stefan; Blome, Tanja; Beer, Christian; Ekici, Altug

2015-04-01

Permafrost or perennially frozen ground is an important part of the terrestrial cryosphere; roughly one quarter of Earth's land surface is underlain by permafrost. As it is a thermal phenomenon, its characteristics are highly dependent on climatic factors. The impact of the currently observed warming, which is projected to persist during the coming decades due to anthropogenic CO2 input, certainly has effects for the vast permafrost areas of the high northern latitudes. The quantification of these effects, however, is scientifically still an open question. This is partly due to the complexity of the system, where several feedbacks are interacting between land and atmosphere, sometimes counterbalancing each other. Moreover, until recently, many global circulation models (GCMs) and Earth system models (ESMs) lacked the sufficient representation of permafrost physics in their land surface schemes. Within the European Union FP7 project PAGE21, the land surface scheme JSBACH of the Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology ESM (MPI-ESM) has been equipped with the representation of relevant physical processes for permafrost studies. These processes include the effects of freezing and thawing of soil water for both energy and water cycles, thermal properties depending on soil water and ice contents, and soil moisture movement being influenced by the presence of soil ice. In the present study, it will be analysed how these permafrost relevant processes impact projected hydrological changes over northern hemisphere high latitude land areas. For this analysis, the atmosphere-land part of MPI-ESM, ECHAM6-JSBACH, is driven by prescribed SST and sea ice in an AMIP2-type setup with and without the newly implemented permafrost processes. Observed SST and sea ice for 1979-1999 are used to consider induced changes in the simulated hydrological cycle. In addition, simulated SST and sea ice are taken from a MPI-ESM simulation conducted for CMIP5 following the RCP8.5 scenario. The corresponding simulations with ECHAM6-JSBACH are used to assess differences in projected hydrological changes induced by the permafrost relevant processes.

Implementation of the MEGAN (v2.1) biogenic emission model in the ECHAM6-HAMMOZ chemistry climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Henrot, Alexandra-Jane; Stanelle, Tanja; Schröder, Sabine; Siegenthaler, Colombe; Taraborrelli, Domenico; Schultz, Martin G.

2017-02-01

A biogenic emission scheme based on the Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature (MEGAN) version 2.1 (Guenther et al., 2012) has been integrated into the ECHAM6-HAMMOZ chemistry climate model in order to calculate the emissions from terrestrial vegetation of 32 compounds. The estimated annual global total for the reference simulation is 634 Tg C yr-1 (simulation period 2000-2012). Isoprene is the main contributor to the average emission total, accounting for 66 % (417 Tg C yr-1), followed by several monoterpenes (12 %), methanol (7 %), acetone (3.6 %), and ethene (3.6 %). Regionally, most of the high annual emissions are found to be associated with tropical regions and tropical vegetation types. In order to evaluate the implementation of the biogenic model in ECHAM-HAMMOZ, global and regional biogenic volatile organic compound (BVOC) emissions of the reference simulation were compared to previous published experiment results with MEGAN. Several sensitivity simulations were performed to study the impact of different model input and parameters related to the vegetation cover and the ECHAM6 climate. BVOC emissions obtained here are within the range of previous published estimates. The large range of emission estimates can be attributed to the use of different input data and empirical coefficients within different setups of MEGAN. The biogenic model shows a high sensitivity to the changes in plant functional type (PFT) distributions and associated emission factors for most of the compounds. The global emission impact for isoprene is about -9 %, but reaches +75 % for α-pinene when switching from global emission factor maps to PFT-specific emission factor distributions. The highest sensitivity of isoprene emissions is calculated when considering soil moisture impact, with a global decrease of 12.5 % when the soil moisture activity factor is included in the model parameterization. Nudging ECHAM6 climate towards ERA-Interim reanalysis has an impact on the biogenic emissions, slightly lowering the global total emissions and their interannual variability.

Response of North American freshwater lakes to simulated future climates

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hostetler, S.W.; Small, E.E.

1999-01-01

We apply a physically based lake model to assess the response of North American lakes to future climate conditions as portrayed by the transient trace-gas simulations conducted with the Max Planck Institute (ECHAM4) and the Canadian Climate Center (CGCM1) atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (A/OGCMs). To quantify spatial patterns of lake responses (temperature, mixing, ice cover, evaporation) we ran the lake model for theoretical lakes of specified area, depth, and transparency over a uniformly spaced (50 km) grid. The simulations were conducted for two 10-year periods that represent present climatic conditions and those around the time of CO2 doubling. Although the climate model output produces simulated lake responses that differ in specific regional details, there is broad agreement with regard to the direction and area of change. In particular, lake temperatures are generally warmer in the future as a result of warmer climatic conditions and a substantial loss (> 100 days/yr) of winter ice cover. Simulated summer lake temperatures are higher than 30??C ever the Midwest and south, suggesting the potential for future disturbance of existing aquatic ecosystems. Overall increases in lake evaporation combine with disparate changes in A/OGCM precipitation to produce future changes in net moisture (precipitation minus evaporation) that are of less fidelity than those of lake temperature.

On the reduced lifetime of nitrous oxide due to climate change induced acceleration of the Brewer-Dobson circulation as simulated by the MPI Earth System Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kracher, D.; Manzini, E.; Reick, C. H.; Schultz, M. G.; Stein, O.

2014-12-01

Greenhouse gas induced climate change will modify the physical conditions of the atmosphere. One of the projected changes is an acceleration of the Brewer-Dobson circulation in the stratosphere, as it has been shown in many model studies. This change in the stratospheric circulation consequently bears an effect on the transport and distribution of atmospheric components such as N2O. Since N2O is involved in ozone destruction, a modified distribution of N2O can be of importance for ozone chemistry. N2O is inert in the troposphere and decays only in the stratosphere. Thus, changes in the exchange between troposphere and stratosphere can also affect the stratospheric sink of N2O, and consequently its atmospheric lifetime. N2O is a potent greenhouse gas with a global warming potential of currently approximately 300 CO2-equivalents in a 100-year perspective. A faster decay in atmospheric N2O mixing ratios, i.e. a decreased atmospheric lifetime of N2O, will also reduce its global warming potential. In order to assess the impact of climate change on atmospheric circulation and implied effects on the distribution and lifetime of atmospheric N2O, we apply the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model, MPI-ESM. MPI-ESM consists of the atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM, the land surface model JSBACH, and MPIOM/HAMOCC representing ocean circulation and ocean biogeochemistry. Prognostic atmospheric N2O concentrations in MPI-ESM are determined by land N2O emissions, ocean-atmosphere N2O exchange and atmospheric tracer transport. As stratospheric chemistry is not explicitly represented in MPI-ESM, stratospheric decay rates of N2O are prescribed from a MACC MOZART simulation. Increasing surface temperatures and CO2 concentrations in the stratosphere impact atmospheric circulation differently. Thus, we conduct a series of transient runs with the atmospheric model of MPI-ESM to isolate different factors governing a shift in atmospheric circulation. From those transient simulations we diagnose decreasing tropospheric N2O concentrations, increased transport of N2O from the troposphere to the stratosphere, and increasing stratospheric decay of N2O leading to a reduction in atmospheric lifetime of N2O, in dependency to climate change evolution.

Trace gas variability within the Asian monsoon anticyclone on intraseasonal and interannual timescales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nützel, Matthias; Dameris, Martin; Fierli, Federico; Stiller, Gabriele; Garny, Hella; Jöckel, Patrick

2016-04-01

The Asian monsoon and the associated monsoon anticyclone have the potential of substantially influencing the composition of the UTLS (upper troposphere/lower stratosphere) and hence global climate. Here we study the variability of the Asian summer monsoon anticyclone in the UTLS on intraseasonal and interannual timescales using results from long term simulations performed with the CCM EMAC (ECHAM5/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry). In particular, we focus on specified dynamics simulations (Newtonian relaxation to ERA-Interim data) covering the period 1980-2013, which have been performed within the ESCiMo (Earth System Chemistry integrated Modelling) project (Jöckel et al., GMDD, 2015). Our main focus lies on variability of the anticyclone's strength (in terms of potential vorticity, geopotential and circulation) and variability in trace gas signatures (O3, H2O) within the anticyclone. To support our findings, we also include observations from satellites (MIPAS, MLS). Our work is linked to the EU StratoClim campaign in 2016.

Amplification of warming due to intensification of zonal circulation in the mid-latitudes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alekseev, Genrikh; Ivanov, Nikolai; Kharlanenkova, Natalia; Kuzmina, Svetlana

2015-04-01

We propose a new index to evaluate the impact of atmospheric zonal transport oscillations on inter-annual variability and trends of average air temperature in mid-latitudes, Northern Hemisphere and globe. A simple model of mid-latitude channel "ocean-land-atmosphere" was used to produce the analytic relationship between the zonal circulation and the land-ocean temperature contrast which was used as a basis for index. An inverse relationship was found between indexes and average mid-latitude, hemisphere and global temperatures during the cold half of year and opposite one in summer. These relationships keep under 400 mb height. In winter relationship describes up to 70, 50 and 40 % of surface air temperature inter-annual variability of these averages, respectively. The contribution of zonal circulation to the increase in the average surface air temperature during warming period 1969-2008 reaches 75% in the mid-latitudes and 40% in the Northern Hemisphere. Proposed mid-latitude index correlates negatively with surface air temperature in the Arctic except summer. ECHAM4 projections with the A1B scenario show that increase of zonal circulation defines more than 74% of the warming in the Northern Hemisphere for 2001-2100. Our analysis confirms that the proposed index is an effective indicator of the climate change caused by variations of the zonal circulation that arise due to anthropogenic and/or natural global forcing mechanisms.

Impact of 3-D orographic gravity wave parameterisation on stratosphere dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eichinger, Roland; Garny, Hella; Cai, Duy; Jöckel, Patrick

2017-04-01

Stratosphere dynamics are strongly influenced by gravity waves (GWs) propagating upwards from the troposphere. Some of these GWs are generated through flow over small-scale orography and can not be resolved by common general circulation models (GCMs). Due to computational model designs, their parameterisation usually follows a one dimensional columnar approach that, among other simplifications, neglects the horizontal propagation of GWs on their way up into the Middle Atmosphere. This causes contradictions between models and observations in location and strength of GW drag force through their dissipation and as a consequence, also in stratospheric mean flow. In the EMAC (ECHAM MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry) model, we have found this deficiency to cause a too weak Antarctic polar vortex, which directly impacts stratospheric temperatures and thereby the chemical reactions that determine ozone depletion. For this reason, we adapt a three dimensional parameterisation for orographic GWs, that had been implemented and tested in the MIROC GCM, to the MESSy coding standard. This computationally light scheme can then be used in a modular and flexible way in a cascade of model setups from an idealised version for conceptional process analyses to full climate chemistry simulations for quantitative investigations. This model enhancement can help to reconcile models and observations in wave drag forcing itself, but in consequence, also in Brewer-Dobson Circulation trends across the recent decades. Furthermore, uncertainties in weather and climate predictions as well as in future ozone projections can be reduced.

Interannual tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies teleconnection to Northern Hemisphere atmosphere in November

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

King, Martin P.; Herceg-Bulić, Ivana; Kucharski, Fred; Keenlyside, Noel

2018-03-01

We investigate the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation anomalies associated to the sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies that are related to the eastern-Pacific and central-Pacific El Nino-Southern Oscillations in the late autumn (November). This research is motivated by the need for improving understanding of the autumn climate conditions which can impact on winter climate, as well as the relative lack of study on the boreal autumn climate processes compared to winter. Using reanalysis and SST datasets available from the late nineteenth century through the recent years, we found that there are two major atmospheric responses; one is a hemispheric-wide wave number-4 pattern, another has a more annular pattern. Both of these project on the East Atlantic pattern (southward-shifted North Atlantic Oscillation) in the Atlantic sector. Which of the patterns is active is suggested to depend on the background mean flow, with the annular anomaly active in the most recent decades, while the wave-4 pattern in the decades before. This switch is associated with a change of correlation sign in the North Pacific. We discuss the robustness of this finding. The ability of two atmospheric general circulation models (ICTP-AGCM and ECHAM-AGCM) to reproduce the teleconnections is also examined. Evidence provided shows that the wave-4 pattern and the East Atlantic pattern signals can be reproduced by the models, while the shift from this to an annular response for the recent years is not found conclusively.

Modeling the influence of atmospheric leading modes on the variability of the Arctic freshwater cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Niederdrenk, L.; Sein, D.; Mikolajewicz, U.

2013-12-01

Global general circulation models show remarkable differences in modeling the Arctic freshwater cycle. While they agree on the general sinks and sources of the freshwater budget, they differ largely in the magnitude of the mean values as well as in the variability of the freshwater terms. Regional models can better resolve the complex topography and small scale processes, but they are often uncoupled, thus missing the air-sea interaction. Additionally, regional models mostly use some kind of salinity restoring or flux correction, thus disturbing the freshwater budget. Our approach to investigate the Arctic hydrologic cycle and its variability is a regional atmosphere-ocean model setup, consisting of the global ocean model MPIOM with high resolution in the Arctic coupled to the regional atmosphere model REMO. The domain of the atmosphere model covers all catchment areas of the rivers draining into the Arctic. To account for all sinks and sources of freshwater in the Arctic, we include a discharge model providing terrestrial lateral waterflows. We run the model without salinity restoring but with freshwater correction, which is set to zero in the Arctic. This allows for the analysis of a closed freshwater budget in the Artic region. We perform experiments for the second half of the 20th century and use data from the global model MPIOM/ECHAM5 performed with historical conditions, that was used within the 4th Assessment Report of the IPCC, as forcing for our regional model. With this setup, we investigate how the dominant modes of large-scale atmospheric variability impact the variability in the freshwater components. We focus on the two leading empirical orthogonal functions of winter mean sea level pressure, as well as on the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Siberian High. These modes have a large impact on the Arctic Ocean circulation as well as on the solid and liquid export through Fram Strait and through the Canadian archipelago. However, they cannot explain the variability in river runoff. We find that not only winter conditions are responsible for increased river runoff, but also an enhanced summer cyclone activity, especially over Eurasia.

Improving groundwater predictions utilizing seasonal precipitation forecasts from general circulation models forced with sea surface temperature forecasts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Almanaseer, Naser; Sankarasubramanian, A.; Bales, Jerad

2014-01-01

Recent studies have found a significant association between climatic variability and basin hydroclimatology, particularly groundwater levels, over the southeast United States. The research reported in this paper evaluates the potential in developing 6-month-ahead groundwater-level forecasts based on the precipitation forecasts from ECHAM 4.5 General Circulation Model Forced with Sea Surface Temperature forecasts. Ten groundwater wells and nine streamgauges from the USGS Groundwater Climate Response Network and Hydro-Climatic Data Network were selected to represent groundwater and surface water flows, respectively, having minimal anthropogenic influences within the Flint River Basin in Georgia, United States. The writers employ two low-dimensional models [principle component regression (PCR) and canonical correlation analysis (CCA)] for predicting groundwater and streamflow at both seasonal and monthly timescales. Three modeling schemes are considered at the beginning of January to predict winter (January, February, and March) and spring (April, May, and June) streamflow and groundwater for the selected sites within the Flint River Basin. The first scheme (model 1) is a null model and is developed using PCR for every streamflow and groundwater site using previous 3-month observations (October, November, and December) available at that particular site as predictors. Modeling schemes 2 and 3 are developed using PCR and CCA, respectively, to evaluate the role of precipitation forecasts in improving monthly and seasonal groundwater predictions. Modeling scheme 3, which employs a CCA approach, is developed for each site by considering observed groundwater levels from nearby sites as predictands. The performance of these three schemes is evaluated using two metrics (correlation coefficient and relative RMS error) by developing groundwater-level forecasts based on leave-five-out cross-validation. Results from the research reported in this paper show that using precipitation forecasts in climate models improves the ability to predict the interannual variability of winter and spring streamflow and groundwater levels over the basin. However, significant conditional bias exists in all the three modeling schemes, which indicates the need to consider improved modeling schemes as well as the availability of longer time-series of observed hydroclimatic information over the basin.

Return periods of losses associated with European windstorm series in a changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karremann, Melanie K.; Pinto, Joaquim G.; Reyers, Mark; Klawa, Matthias

2015-04-01

During the last decades, several windstorm series hit Europe leading to large aggregated losses. Such storm series are examples of serial clustering of extreme cyclones, presenting a considerable risk for the insurance industry. Clustering of events and return periods of storm series affecting Europe are quantified based on potential losses using empirical models. Moreover, possible future changes of clustering and return periods of European storm series with high potential losses are quantified. Historical storm series are identified using 40 winters of NCEP reanalysis data (1973/1974 - 2012/2013). Time series of top events (1, 2 or 5 year return levels) are used to assess return periods of storm series both empirically and theoretically. Return periods of historical storm series are estimated based on the Poisson and the negative binomial distributions. Additionally, 800 winters of ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 general circulation model simulations for present (SRES scenario 20C: years 1960- 2000) and future (SRES scenario A1B: years 2060- 2100) climate conditions are investigated. Clustering is identified for most countries in Europe, and estimated return periods are similar for reanalysis and present day simulations. Future changes of return periods are estimated for fixed return levels and fixed loss index thresholds. For the former, shorter return periods are found for Western Europe, but changes are small and spatially heterogeneous. For the latter, which combines the effects of clustering and event ranking shifts, shorter return periods are found everywhere except for Mediterranean countries. These changes are generally not statistically significant between recent and future climate. However, the return periods for the fixed loss index approach are mostly beyond the range of preindustrial natural climate variability. This is not true for fixed return levels. The quantification of losses associated with storm series permits a more adequate windstorm risk assessment in a changing climate.

Unveiling aerosol-cloud interactions - Part 2: Minimising the effects of aerosol swelling and wet scavenging in ECHAM6-HAM2 for comparison to satellite data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neubauer, David; Christensen, Matthew W.; Poulsen, Caroline A.; Lohmann, Ulrike

2017-11-01

Aerosol-cloud interactions (ACIs) are uncertain and the estimates of the ACI effective radiative forcing (ERFaci) magnitude show a large variability. Within the Aerosol_cci project the susceptibility of cloud properties to changes in aerosol properties is derived from the high-resolution AATSR (Advanced Along-Track Scanning Radiometer) data set using the Cloud-Aerosol Pairing Algorithm (CAPA) (as described in our companion paper) and compared to susceptibilities from the global aerosol climate model ECHAM6-HAM2 and MODIS-CERES (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer - Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System) data. For ECHAM6-HAM2 the dry aerosol is analysed to mimic the effect of CAPA. Furthermore the analysis is done for different environmental regimes. The aerosol-liquid water path relationship in ECHAM6-HAM2 is systematically stronger than in AATSR-CAPA data and cannot be explained by an overestimation of autoconversion when using diagnostic precipitation but rather by aerosol swelling in regions where humidity is high and clouds are present. When aerosol water is removed from the analysis in ECHAM6-HAM2 the strength of the susceptibilities of liquid water path, cloud droplet number concentration and cloud albedo as well as ERFaci agree much better with those of AATSR-CAPA or MODIS-CERES. When comparing satellite-derived to model-derived susceptibilities, this study finds it more appropriate to use dry aerosol in the computation of model susceptibilities. We further find that the statistical relationships inferred from different satellite sensors (AATSR-CAPA vs. MODIS-CERES) as well as from ECHAM6-HAM2 are not always of the same sign for the tested environmental conditions. In particular the susceptibility of the liquid water path is negative in non-raining scenes for MODIS-CERES but positive for AATSR-CAPA and ECHAM6-HAM2. Feedback processes like cloud-top entrainment that are missing or not well represented in the model are therefore not well constrained by satellite observations. In addition to aerosol swelling, wet scavenging and aerosol processing have an impact on liquid water path, cloud albedo and cloud droplet number susceptibilities. Aerosol processing leads to negative liquid water path susceptibilities to changes in aerosol index (AI) in ECHAM6-HAM2, likely due to aerosol-size changes by aerosol processing. Our results indicate that for statistical analysis of aerosol-cloud interactions the unwanted effects of aerosol swelling, wet scavenging and aerosol processing need to be minimised when computing susceptibilities of cloud variables to changes in aerosol.

Sensitivity simulations of superparameterised convection in a general circulation model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rybka, Harald; Tost, Holger

2015-04-01

Cloud Resolving Models (CRMs) covering a horizontal grid spacing from a few hundred meters up to a few kilometers have been used to explicitly resolve small-scale and mesoscale processes. Special attention has been paid to realistically represent cloud dynamics and cloud microphysics involving cloud droplets, ice crystals, graupel and aerosols. The entire variety of physical processes on the small-scale interacts with the larger-scale circulation and has to be parameterised on the coarse grid of a general circulation model (GCM). Since more than a decade an approach to connect these two types of models which act on different scales has been developed to resolve cloud processes and their interactions with the large-scale flow. The concept is to use an ensemble of CRM grid cells in a 2D or 3D configuration in each grid cell of the GCM to explicitly represent small-scale processes avoiding the use of convection and large-scale cloud parameterisations which are a major source for uncertainties regarding clouds. The idea is commonly known as superparameterisation or cloud-resolving convection parameterisation. This study presents different simulations of an adapted Earth System Model (ESM) connected to a CRM which acts as a superparameterisation. Simulations have been performed with the ECHAM/MESSy atmospheric chemistry (EMAC) model comparing conventional GCM runs (including convection and large-scale cloud parameterisations) with the improved superparameterised EMAC (SP-EMAC) modeling one year with prescribed sea surface temperatures and sea ice content. The sensitivity of atmospheric temperature, precipiation patterns, cloud amount and types is observed changing the embedded CRM represenation (orientation, width, no. of CRM cells, 2D vs. 3D). Additionally, we also evaluate the radiation balance with the new model configuration, and systematically analyse the impact of tunable parameters on the radiation budget and hydrological cycle. Furthermore, the subgrid variability (individual CRM cell output) is analysed in order to illustrate the importance of a highly varying atmospheric structure inside a single GCM grid box. Finally, the convective transport of Radon is observed comparing different transport procedures and their influence on the vertical tracer distribution.

Parameterization of dust emissions in the global atmospheric chemistry-climate model EMAC: impact of nudging and soil properties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Astitha, M.; Lelieveld, J.; Abdel Kader, M.; Pozzer, A.; de Meij, A.

2012-11-01

Airborne desert dust influences radiative transfer, atmospheric chemistry and dynamics, as well as nutrient transport and deposition. It directly and indirectly affects climate on regional and global scales. Two versions of a parameterization scheme to compute desert dust emissions are incorporated into the atmospheric chemistry general circulation model EMAC (ECHAM5/MESSy2.41 Atmospheric Chemistry). One uses a globally uniform soil particle size distribution, whereas the other explicitly accounts for different soil textures worldwide. We have tested these two versions and investigated the sensitivity to input parameters, using remote sensing data from the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) and dust concentrations and deposition measurements from the AeroCom dust benchmark database (and others). The two versions are shown to produce similar atmospheric dust loads in the N-African region, while they deviate in the Asian, Middle Eastern and S-American regions. The dust outflow from Africa over the Atlantic Ocean is accurately simulated by both schemes, in magnitude, location and seasonality. Approximately 70% of the modelled annual deposition data and 70-75% of the modelled monthly aerosol optical depth (AOD) in the Atlantic Ocean stations lay in the range 0.5 to 2 times the observations for all simulations. The two versions have similar performance, even though the total annual source differs by ~50%, which underscores the importance of transport and deposition processes (being the same for both versions). Even though the explicit soil particle size distribution is considered more realistic, the simpler scheme appears to perform better in several locations. This paper discusses the differences between the two versions of the dust emission scheme, focusing on their limitations and strengths in describing the global dust cycle and suggests possible future improvements.

Evaluation of Oceanic Surface Observation for Reproducing the Upper Ocean Structure in ECHAM5/MPI-OM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luo, Hao; Zheng, Fei; Zhu, Jiang

2017-12-01

Better constraints of initial conditions from data assimilation are necessary for climate simulations and predictions, and they are particularly important for the ocean due to its long climate memory; as such, ocean data assimilation (ODA) is regarded as an effective tool for seasonal to decadal predictions. In this work, an ODA system is established for a coupled climate model (ECHAM5/MPI-OM), which can assimilate all available oceanic observations using an ensemble optimal interpolation approach. To validate and isolate the performance of different surface observations in reproducing air-sea climate variations in the model, a set of observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs) was performed over 150 model years. Generally, assimilating sea surface temperature, sea surface salinity, and sea surface height (SSH) can reasonably reproduce the climate variability and vertical structure of the upper ocean, and assimilating SSH achieves the best results compared to the true states. For the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), assimilating different surface observations captures true aspects of ENSO well, but assimilating SSH can further enhance the accuracy of ENSO-related feedback processes in the coupled model, leading to a more reasonable ENSO evolution and air-sea interaction over the tropical Pacific. For ocean heat content, there are still limitations in reproducing the long time-scale variability in the North Atlantic, even if SSH has been taken into consideration. These results demonstrate the effectiveness of assimilating surface observations in capturing the interannual signal and, to some extent, the decadal signal but still highlight the necessity of assimilating profile data to reproduce specific decadal variability.

Influence of enhanced Asian NOx emissions on ozone in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere in chemistry-climate model simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roy, Chaitri; Fadnavis, Suvarna; Müller, Rolf; Ayantika, D. C.; Ploeger, Felix; Rap, Alexandru

2017-01-01

The Asian summer monsoon (ASM) anticyclone is the most pronounced circulation pattern in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) during northern hemispheric summer. ASM convection plays an important role in efficient vertical transport from the surface to the upper-level anticyclone. In this paper we investigate the potential impact of enhanced anthropogenic nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions on the distribution of ozone in the UTLS using the fully coupled aerosol-chemistry-climate model, ECHAM5-HAMMOZ. Ozone in the UTLS is influenced both by the convective uplift of ozone precursors and by the uplift of enhanced-NOx-induced tropospheric ozone anomalies. We performed anthropogenic NOx emission sensitivity experiments over India and China. In these simulations, covering the years 2000-2010, anthropogenic NOx emissions have been increased by 38 % over India and by 73 % over China with respect to the emission base year 2000. These emission increases are comparable to the observed linear trends of 3.8 % per year over India and 7.3 % per year over China during the period 2000 to 2010. Enhanced NOx emissions over India by 38 % and China by 73 % increase the ozone radiative forcing in the ASM anticyclone (15-40° N, 60-120° E) by 16.3 and 78.5 mW m-2 respectively. These elevated NOx emissions produce significant warming over the Tibetan Plateau and increase precipitation over India due to a strengthening of the monsoon Hadley circulation. However, increase in NOx emissions over India by 73 % (similar to the observed increase over China) results in large ozone production over the Indo-Gangetic Plain and Tibetan Plateau. The higher ozone concentrations, in turn, induce a reversed monsoon Hadley circulation and negative precipitation anomalies over India. The associated subsidence suppresses vertical transport of NOx and ozone into the ASM anticyclone.

The chemistry-climate model ECHAM6.3-HAM2.3-MOZ1.0

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schultz, Martin G.; Stadtler, Scarlet; Schröder, Sabine; Taraborrelli, Domenico; Franco, Bruno; Krefting, Jonathan; Henrot, Alexandra; Ferrachat, Sylvaine; Lohmann, Ulrike; Neubauer, David; Siegenthaler-Le Drian, Colombe; Wahl, Sebastian; Kokkola, Harri; Kühn, Thomas; Rast, Sebastian; Schmidt, Hauke; Stier, Philip; Kinnison, Doug; Tyndall, Geoffrey S.; Orlando, John J.; Wespes, Catherine

2018-05-01

The chemistry-climate model ECHAM-HAMMOZ contains a detailed representation of tropospheric and stratospheric reactive chemistry and state-of-the-art parameterizations of aerosols using either a modal scheme (M7) or a bin scheme (SALSA). This article describes and evaluates the model version ECHAM6.3-HAM2.3-MOZ1.0 with a focus on the tropospheric gas-phase chemistry. A 10-year model simulation was performed to test the stability of the model and provide data for its evaluation. The comparison to observations concentrates on the year 2008 and includes total column observations of ozone and CO from IASI and OMI, Aura MLS observations of temperature, HNO3, ClO, and O3 for the evaluation of polar stratospheric processes, an ozonesonde climatology, surface ozone observations from the TOAR database, and surface CO data from the Global Atmosphere Watch network. Global budgets of ozone, OH, NOx, aerosols, clouds, and radiation are analyzed and compared to the literature. ECHAM-HAMMOZ performs well in many aspects. However, in the base simulation, lightning NOx emissions are very low, and the impact of the heterogeneous reaction of HNO3 on dust and sea salt aerosol is too strong. Sensitivity simulations with increased lightning NOx or modified heterogeneous chemistry deteriorate the comparison with observations and yield excessively large ozone budget terms and too much OH. We hypothesize that this is an impact of potential issues with tropical convection in the ECHAM model.

Kinematic and diabatic vertical velocity climatologies from a chemistry climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marinke Hoppe, Charlotte; Ploeger, Felix; Konopka, Paul; Müller, Rolf

2016-05-01

The representation of vertical velocity in chemistry climate models is a key element for the representation of the large-scale Brewer-Dobson circulation in the stratosphere. Here, we diagnose and compare the kinematic and diabatic vertical velocities in the ECHAM/Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy) Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) model. The calculation of kinematic vertical velocity is based on the continuity equation, whereas diabatic vertical velocity is computed using diabatic heating rates. Annual and monthly zonal mean climatologies of vertical velocity from a 10-year simulation are provided for both kinematic and diabatic vertical velocity representations. In general, both vertical velocity patterns show the main features of the stratospheric circulation, namely, upwelling at low latitudes and downwelling at high latitudes. The main difference in the vertical velocity pattern is a more uniform structure for diabatic and a noisier structure for kinematic vertical velocity. Diabatic vertical velocities show higher absolute values both in the upwelling branch in the inner tropics and in the downwelling regions in the polar vortices. Further, there is a latitudinal shift of the tropical upwelling branch in boreal summer between the two vertical velocity representations with the tropical upwelling region in the diabatic representation shifted southward compared to the kinematic case. Furthermore, we present mean age of air climatologies from two transport schemes in EMAC using these different vertical velocities and analyze the impact of residual circulation and mixing processes on the age of air. The age of air distributions show a hemispheric difference pattern in the stratosphere with younger air in the Southern Hemisphere and older air in the Northern Hemisphere using the transport scheme with diabatic vertical velocities. Further, the age of air climatology from the transport scheme using diabatic vertical velocities shows a younger mean age of air in the inner tropical upwelling branch and an older mean age in the extratropical tropopause region.

Decomposition of Sources of Errors in Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts in a Rainfall-Runoff Dominated Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sinha, T.; Arumugam, S.

2012-12-01

Seasonal streamflow forecasts contingent on climate forecasts can be effectively utilized in updating water management plans and optimize generation of hydroelectric power. Streamflow in the rainfall-runoff dominated basins critically depend on forecasted precipitation in contrast to snow dominated basins, where initial hydrological conditions (IHCs) are more important. Since precipitation forecasts from Atmosphere-Ocean-General Circulation Models are available at coarse scale (~2.8° by 2.8°), spatial and temporal downscaling of such forecasts are required to implement land surface models, which typically runs on finer spatial and temporal scales. Consequently, multiple sources are introduced at various stages in predicting seasonal streamflow. Therefore, in this study, we addresses the following science questions: 1) How do we attribute the errors in monthly streamflow forecasts to various sources - (i) model errors, (ii) spatio-temporal downscaling, (iii) imprecise initial conditions, iv) no forecasts, and (iv) imprecise forecasts? and 2) How does monthly streamflow forecast errors propagate with different lead time over various seasons? In this study, the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model is calibrated over Apalachicola River at Chattahoochee, FL in the southeastern US and implemented with observed 1/8° daily forcings to estimate reference streamflow during 1981 to 2010. The VIC model is then forced with different schemes under updated IHCs prior to forecasting period to estimate relative mean square errors due to: a) temporally disaggregation, b) spatial downscaling, c) Reverse Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (imprecise IHCs), d) ESP (no forecasts), and e) ECHAM4.5 precipitation forecasts. Finally, error propagation under different schemes are analyzed with different lead time over different seasons.

Changing transport processes in the stratosphere by radiative heating of sulfate aerosols

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Niemeier, Ulrike; Schmidt, Hauke

2017-12-01

The injection of sulfur dioxide (SO2) into the stratosphere to form an artificial stratospheric aerosol layer is discussed as an option for solar radiation management. Sulfate aerosol scatters solar radiation and absorbs infrared radiation, which warms the stratospheric sulfur layer. Simulations with the general circulation model ECHAM5-HAM, including aerosol microphysics, show consequences of this warming, including changes of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in the tropics. The QBO slows down after an injection of 4 Tg(S) yr-1 and completely shuts down after an injection of 8 Tg(S) yr-1. Transport of species in the tropics and sub-tropics depends on the phase of the QBO. Consequently, the heated aerosol layer not only impacts the oscillation of the QBO but also the meridional transport of the sulfate aerosols. The stronger the injection, the stronger the heating and the simulated impact on the QBO and equatorial wind systems. With increasing injection rate the velocity of the equatorial jet streams increases, and the less sulfate is transported out of the tropics. This reduces the global distribution of sulfate and decreases the radiative forcing efficiency of the aerosol layer by 10 to 14 % compared to simulations with low vertical resolution and without generated QBO. Increasing the height of the injection increases the radiative forcing only for injection rates below 10 Tg(S) yr-1 (8-18 %), a much smaller value than the 50 % calculated previously. Stronger injection rates at higher levels even result in smaller forcing than the injections at lower levels.

ECHMERIT: A new on-line global mercury-chemistry model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jung, G.; Hedgecock, I. M.; Pirrone, N.

2009-04-01

Mercury is a volatile metal, that is of concern because when deposited and transformed to methylmercury accumulates within the food-web. Due to the long lifetime of elemental mercury, which is the dominant fraction of mercury species in the atmosphere, mercury is prone to long-range transport and therefore distributed over the globe, transported and hence deposited even in regions far from anthropogenic emission sources. Mercury is released to the atmosphere from a variety of natural and anthropogenic sources, in elementary and oxidised forms, and as particulate mercury. It is then transported, but also transformed chemically in the gaseous phase, as well as in aqueous phase within cloud and rain droplets. Mercury (particularly its oxidised forms) is removed from the atmosphere though wet and dry deposition processes, a large fraction of deposited mercury is, after chemical or biological reduction, re-emitted to the atmosphere as elementary mercury. To investigate mercury chemistry and transport processes on the global scale, the new, global model ECHMERIT has been developed. ECHMERIT simulates meteorology, transport, deposition, photolysis and chemistry on-line. The general circulation model on which ECHMERIT is based is ECHAM5. Sophisticated chemical modules have been implemented, including gas phase chemistry based on the CBM-Z chemistry mechanism, as well as aqueous phase chemistry, both of which have been adapted to include Hg chemistry and Hg species gas-droplet mass transfer. ECHMERIT uses the fast-J photolysis routine. State-of-the-art procedures simulating wet and dry deposition and emissions were adapted and included in the model as well. An overview of the model structure, development, validation and sensitivity studies is presented.

Simulated atmospheric response to Gulf Stream variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hand, Ralf; Keenlyside, Noel; Omrani, Nour-Eddine; Latif, Mojib; Minobe, Shoshiro

2010-05-01

Though the ocean variability has a distinct low-frequent component on interannual to interdecadal timescales, a better understanding of the main features of air-sea interaction in the extratropical ocean might increase the predictive skill of climate models significantly. An insufficiently understood region in this context are the sharp SST-fronts connected to western boundary currents, which interact with the overlaying atmosphere by forcing low-level winds and evaporation. Recent studies show, that this response extends beyond the marine boundary layer and so might influence also the large-scale atmospheric circulation. In this work a 5 member ensemble of model runs from the AGCM ECHAM5 was analyzed focussing on the atmospheric response to the Gulf Stream. The analyzed experiment covered a time period of 138 years from 1870 to 2007 and was forced by observed SSTs and sea-ice concentration from the HadISST dataset. The experiment was performed at T106 horizontal resolution (~100km) and with 31 vertical levels up to 1 hPa. Simulated seasonal mean circulation indicate a convective response of the atmosphere in the Gulf Stream region similar to observations, with distinct low-level wind convergence, strong upward motion, and low-pressure over the warm SST flank of the Gulf Stream. An analysis of variance (ANOVA) suggests, that up to 25-30% of the variability of the summer precipitation in the Gulf Stream region are connected to the boundary conditions. The link between oceanic and atmospheric variability on seasonal to interannual timescales is investigated with composite and linear regression analysis. Results indicate that increased (decreased) precipitation is associated with stronger (weaker) low-level wind convergence, enhanced (reduced) upward motion, low (high) pressure, and warm (cold) SST anomalies in the region of the Gulf Stream. Currently sensitivity experiments with the same AGCM configuration are in progress.

Global tropospheric hydroxyl distribution, budget and reactivity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lelieveld, Jos; Gromov, Sergey; Pozzer, Andrea; Taraborrelli, Domenico

2016-10-01

The self-cleaning or oxidation capacity of the atmosphere is principally controlled by hydroxyl (OH) radicals in the troposphere. Hydroxyl has primary (P) and secondary (S) sources, the former mainly through the photodissociation of ozone, the latter through OH recycling in radical reaction chains. We used the recent Mainz Organics Mechanism (MOM) to advance volatile organic carbon (VOC) chemistry in the general circulation model EMAC (ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry) and show that S is larger than previously assumed. By including emissions of a large number of primary VOC, and accounting for their complete breakdown and intermediate products, MOM is mass-conserving and calculates substantially higher OH reactivity from VOC oxidation compared to predecessor models. Whereas previously P and S were found to be of similar magnitude, the present work indicates that S may be twice as large, mostly due to OH recycling in the free troposphere. Further, we find that nighttime OH formation may be significant in the polluted subtropical boundary layer in summer. With a mean OH recycling probability of about 67 %, global OH is buffered and not sensitive to perturbations by natural or anthropogenic emission changes. Complementary primary and secondary OH formation mechanisms in pristine and polluted environments in the continental and marine troposphere, connected through long-range transport of O3, can maintain stable global OH levels.

The role of shallow convection in promoting the northward propagation of boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Fei; Zhao, Jiuwei; Fu, Xiouhua; Huang, Gang

2018-02-01

By conducting idealized experiments in a general circulation model (GCM) and in a toy theoretical model, we test the hypothesis that shallow convection (SC) is responsible for explaining why the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) prefers propagating northward. Two simulations are performed using ECHAM4, with the control run using a standard detrainment rate of SC and the sensitivity run turning off the detrainment rate of SC. These two simulations display dramatically different BSISO characteristics. The control run simulates the realistic northward propagation (NP) of the BSISO, while the sensitivity run with little SC only simulates stationary signals. In the sensitivity run, the meridional asymmetries of vorticity and humidity fields are simulated under the monsoon vertical wind shear (VWS); thus, the frictional convergence can be excited to the north of the BSISO. However, the lack of SC makes the lower and middle troposphere very dry, which prohibits further development of deeper convection. A theoretical BSISO model is also constructed, and the result shows that SC is a key to convey the asymmetric vorticity effect to induce the BSISO to move northward. Thus, both the GCM and theoretical model results demonstrate the importance of SC in promoting the NP of the BSISO.

Mars atmospheric circulation - Aspects from Viking Landers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ryan, J. A.

1985-01-01

Winds measured by the two Viking Landers have been filtered and then compared with predictions from the general circulation model and to Orbiter observations of clouds and surface phenomena that indicate wind direction. This was done to determine the degree to which filtered winds may represent aspects of the general circulation. Excellent agreement was found between wind direction data from Lander 1 and the model predictions and Orbiter observations. For Lander 2, agreement was generally good, but there were periods of disagreement which indicate that the filtering did not remove other extraneous effects. It is concluded that Lander 1 gives a good representation of the general circulation at 22.5 deg N latitude but that Lander 2 is suspect. Most wind data from Lander 1 have yet to be analyzed. It appears that when analyzed these Lander 1 data (covering 3.5 Mars years) can provide information about interannual variations in the general circulation at the Lander latitude.

Exceptional warming in the Western Pacific-Indian Ocean warm pool has contributed to more frequent droughts in eastern Africa

USGS Publications Warehouse

Funk, Christopher C.; Peterson, Thomas C.; Stott, Peter A.; Herring, Stephanie

2012-01-01

In 2011, East Africa faced a tragic food crisis that led to famine conditions in parts of Somalia and severe food shortages in parts of Ethiopia and Somalia. While many nonclimatic factors contributed to this crisis (high global food prices, political instability, and chronic poverty, among others) failed rains in both the boreal winter of 2010/11 and the boreal spring of 2011 played a critical role. The back-to-back failures of these rains, which were linked to the dominant La Niña climate and warm SSTs in the central and southeastern Indian Ocean, were particularly problematic since they followed poor rainfall during the spring and summer of 2008 and 2009. In fact, in parts of East Africa, in recent years, there has been a substantial increase in the number of below-normal rainy seasons, which may be related to the warming of the western Pacific and Indian Oceans (for more details, see Funk et al. 2008; Williams and Funk 2011; Williams et al. 2011; Lyon and DeWitt 2012). The basic argument of this work is that recent warming in the Indian–Pacific warm pool (IPWP) enhances the export of geopotential height energy from the warm pool, which tends to produce subsidence across eastern Africa and reduce onshore moisture transports. The general pattern of this disruption has been supported by canonical correlation analyzes and numerical experiments with the Community Atmosphere Model (Funk et al. 2008), diagnostic evaluations of reanalysis data (Williams and Funk 2011; Williams et al. 2011), and SST-driven experiments with ECHAM4.5, ECHAM5, and the Community Climate Model version 3 (CCM3.6) (Lyon and DeWitt 2012).

Improving microphysics in a convective parameterization: possibilities and limitations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Labbouz, Laurent; Heikenfeld, Max; Stier, Philip; Morrison, Hugh; Milbrandt, Jason; Protat, Alain; Kipling, Zak

2017-04-01

The convective cloud field model (CCFM) is a convective parameterization implemented in the climate model ECHAM6.1-HAM2.2. It represents a population of clouds within each ECHAM-HAM model column, simulating up to 10 different convective cloud types with individual radius, vertical velocities and microphysical properties. Comparisons between CCFM and radar data at Darwin, Australia, show that in order to reproduce both the convective cloud top height distribution and the vertical velocity profile, the effect of aerodynamic drag on the rising parcel has to be considered, along with a reduced entrainment parameter. A new double-moment microphysics (the Predicted Particle Properties scheme, P3) has been implemented in the latest version of CCFM and is compared to the standard single-moment microphysics and the radar retrievals at Darwin. The microphysical process rates (autoconversion, accretion, deposition, freezing, …) and their response to changes in CDNC are investigated and compared to high resolution CRM WRF simulations over the Amazon region. The results shed light on the possibilities and limitations of microphysics improvements in the framework of CCFM and in convective parameterizations in general.

Use of Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer bidirectional reflectance distribution function products to enhance simulated surface albedos

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roesch, Andreas; Schaaf, Crystal; Gao, Feng

2004-06-01

Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) surface albedo at high spatial and spectral resolution is compared with other remotely sensed climatologies, ground-based data, and albedos simulated with the European Center/Hamburg 4 (ECHAM4) global climate model at T42 resolution. The study demonstrates the importance of MODIS data in assessing and improving albedo parameterizations in weather forecast and climate models. The remotely sensed PINKER surface albedo climatology follows the MODIS estimates fairly well in both the visible and near-infrared spectra, whereas ECHAM4 simulates high positive albedo biases over snow-covered boreal forests and the Himalayas. In contrast, the ECHAM4 albedo is probably too low over the Sahara sand desert and adjacent steppes. The study clearly indicates that neglecting albedo variations within T42 grid boxes leads to significant errors in the simulated regional climate and horizontal fluxes, mainly in mountainous and/or snow-covered regions. MODIS surface albedo at 0.05 resolution agrees quite well with in situ field measurements collected at Baseline Surface Radiation Network (BSRN) sites during snow-free periods, while significant positive biases are found under snow-covered conditions, mainly due to differences in the vegetation cover at the BSRN site (short grass) and the vegetation within the larger MODIS grid box. Black sky (direct beam) albedo from the MODIS bidirectional reflectance distribution function model captures the diurnal albedo cycle at BSRN sites with sufficient accuracy. The greatest negative biases are generally found when the Sun is low. A realistic approach for relating albedo and zenith angle has been proposed. Detailed evaluations have demonstrated that ignoring the zenith angle dependence may lead to significant errors in the surface energy balance.

Consequences of Changes in Vegetation and Snow Cover for Climate Feedbacks in Alaska and Northwest Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Euskirchen, E. S.; Breen, A. L.; Bennett, A.; Genet, H.; Lindgren, M.; Kurkowski, T. A.; McGuire, A. D.; Rupp, S. T.

2016-12-01

A continuing challenge in global change studies is to determine how land surface changes may impact atmospheric heating. Changes in vegetation and snow cover may lead to feedbacks to climate through changes in surface albedo and energy fluxes between the land and atmosphere. In addition to these biogeophysical feedbacks, biogeochemical feedbacks associated with changes in carbon (C) storage in the vegetation and soils may also influence climate. Here, using a transient biogeographic model (ALFRESCO) and an ecosystem model (DOS-TEM), we quantified the biogeophysical feedbacks due to changes in vegetation and snow cover across continuous permafrost to non-permafrost ecosystems in Alaska and northwest Canada. We also computed the changes in carbon storage in this region to provide a general assessment of the direction of the biogeochemical feedback. We considered four ecoregions, or Landscape Conservations Cooperatives (LCCs; including the Arctic, North Pacific, Western Alaska, and Northwest Boreal). We examined the 90-year period from 2010- 2099 using one future emission scenario (A1B), under outputs from two general circulation models (MPI-ECHAM5 and CCCMA-CGCM3.1). We consider a more comprehensive suite of possible feedbacks to climate due to shifts in vegetation than previous studies, including both boreal and tundra fire, an advance of treeline, reduction in forest cover due to drought, and increases in the distribution of shrub tundra. However, changes in snow cover still provided the dominant positive land surface feedback to atmospheric heating. This positive feedback was partially moderated by an increase in area burned in spruce forests and shrub tundra. Overall, increases in C storage in the vegetation and soils across the study region would act as a negative feedback to climate. By exploring these feedbacks, we can reach a more integrated understanding of the vulnerability of this region to changes in climate.

The effect of the East Atlantic pattern on the precipitation δ18O-NAO relationship in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Comas-Bru, L.; McDermott, F.; Werner, M.

2016-10-01

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is known to influence precipitation δ18O (δ18Op) through its control on air temperature and on the trajectory of the westerly winds that carry moisture onto Europe during boreal winters. Hence, paleoclimate studies seeking to reconstruct the NAO can exploit the δ18O signal that is commonly preserved in natural archives such as stalagmites, ice cores, tree rings and lake sediments. However, such reconstructions should consider the uncertainties that arise from non-stationarities in the δ18Op-NAO relationship. Here, new insights into the causes of these temporal non-stationarities are presented for the European region using both observations (GNIP database) and the output of an isotope-enabled general circulation model (ECHAM5-wiso). The results show that, although the East Atlantic (EA) pattern is generally uncorrelated to δ18Op during the instrumental period, its polarity affects the δ18Op-NAO relationship. Non-stationarities in this relationship result from spatial shifts of the δ18Op-NAO correlated areas as a consequence of different NAO/EA combinations. These shifts are consistent with those reported previously for NAO-winter climate variables and the resulting non-stationarities mean that δ18O-based NAO reconstructions could be compromised if the balance of positive and negative NAO/EA states differs substantially in a calibration period compared with the period of interest in the past. The same approach has been followed to assess the relationships between δ18Op and both winter total precipitation and winter mean surface air temperature, with similar results. Crucially, this study also identifies regions within Europe where temporal changes in the NAO, air temperature and precipitation can be more robustly reconstructed using δ18O time series from natural archives, irrespective of concomitant changes in the EA.

Megadroughts in Southwestern North America in ECHO-G Millennial Simulations and Their Comparison to Proxy Drought Reconstructions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Coats, Sloan; Smerdon, Jason E.; Seager, Richard; Cook, Benjamin I.; Gozalez-Rouco, J. F.

2013-01-01

Simulated hydroclimate variability in millennium-length forced transient and control simulations from the ECHAM and the global Hamburg Ocean Primitive Equation (ECHO-G) coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) is analyzed and compared to 1000 years of reconstructed Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) variability from the North American Drought Atlas (NADA). The ability of the model to simulate megadroughts in the North American southwest is evaluated. (NASW: 25deg42.5degN, 125deg-105degW). Megadroughts in the ECHO-G AOGCM are found to be similar in duration and magnitude to those estimated from the NADA. The droughts in the forced simulation are not, however, temporally synchronous with those in the paleoclimate record, nor are there significant differences between the drought features simulated in the forced and control runs. These results indicate that model-simulated megadroughts can result from internal variability of the modeled climate system rather than as a response to changes in exogenous forcings. Although the ECHO-G AOGCM is capable of simulating megadroughts through persistent La Nina-like conditions in the tropical Pacific, other mechanisms can produce similarly extreme NASW moisture anomalies in the model. In particular, the lack of low-frequency coherence between NASW soil moisture and simulated modes of climate variability like the El Nino-Southern Oscillation, Pacific decadal oscillation, and Atlantic multidecadal oscillation during identified drought periods suggests that stochastic atmospheric variability can contribute significantly to the occurrence of simulated megadroughts in the NASW. These findings indicate that either an expanded paradigm is needed to understand multidecadal hydroclimate variability in the NASW or AOGCMs may incorrectly simulate the strength and/or dynamics of the connection between NASW hydroclimate variability and the tropical Pacific.

Climate and land use changes effects on soil organic carbon stocks in a Mediterranean semi-natural area.

PubMed

Lozano-García, Beatriz; Muñoz-Rojas, Miriam; Parras-Alcántara, Luis

2017-02-01

A thorough knowledge of the effects of climate and land use changes on the soil carbon pool is critical to planning effective strategies for adaptation and mitigation in future scenarios of global climate and land use change. In this study, we used CarboSOIL model to predict changes in soil organic carbon stocks in a semi-natural area of Southern Spain in three different time horizons (2040, 2070, 2100), considering two general circulation models (BCM2 and ECHAM5) and three IPCC scenarios (A1b, A2, B2). The effects of potential land use changes from natural vegetation (Mediterranean evergreen oak woodland) to agricultural land (olive grove and cereal) on soil organic carbon stocks were also evaluated. Predicted values of SOC contents correlated well those measured (R2 ranging from 0.71 at 0-25cm to 0.97 at 50-75cm) showing the efficiency of the model. Results showed substantial differences among time horizons, climate and land use scenarios and soil depth with larger decreases of soil organic carbon stocks in the long term (2100 time horizon) and particularly in olive groves. The combination of climate and land use scenarios (in particular conversion from current 'dehesa' to olive groves) resulted in yet higher losses of soil organic carbon stocks, e.g. -30, -15 and -33% in the 0-25, 25-50 and 50-75cm sections respectively. This study shows the importance of soil organic carbon stocks assessment under both climate and land use scenarios at different soil sections and point towards possible directions for appropriate land use management in Mediterranean semi natural areas. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Technical Note: The Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy) - a new approach towards Earth System Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jöckel, P.; Sander, R.; Kerkweg, A.; Tost, H.; Lelieveld, J.

2005-02-01

The development of a comprehensive Earth System Model (ESM) to study the interactions between chemical, physical, and biological processes, requires coupling of the different domains (land, ocean, atmosphere, ...). One strategy is to link existing domain-specific models with a universal coupler, i.e. an independent standalone program organizing the communication between other programs. In many cases, however, a much simpler approach is more feasible. We have developed the Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy). It comprises (1) a modular interface structure to connect to a , (2) an extendable set of such for miscellaneous processes, and (3) a coding standard. MESSy is therefore not a coupler in the classical sense, but exchanges data between a and several within one comprehensive executable. The internal complexity of the is controllable in a transparent and user friendly way. This provides remarkable new possibilities to study feedback mechanisms (by two-way coupling). Note that the MESSy and the coupler approach can be combined. For instance, an atmospheric model implemented according to the MESSy standard could easily be coupled to an ocean model by means of an external coupler. The vision is to ultimately form a comprehensive ESM which includes a large set of submodels, and a base model which contains only a central clock and runtime control. This can be reached stepwise, since each process can be included independently. Starting from an existing model, process submodels can be reimplemented according to the MESSy standard. This procedure guarantees the availability of a state-of-the-art model for scientific applications at any time of the development. In principle, MESSy can be implemented into any kind of model, either global or regional. So far, the MESSy concept has been applied to the general circulation model ECHAM5 and a number of process boxmodels.

The influence of land cover change in the Asian monsoon region on present-day and mid-Holocene climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dallmeyer, A.; Claussen, M.

2011-02-01

Using the general circulation model ECHAM5/JSBACH, we investigate the biogeophysical effect of large-scale afforestation and deforestation in the Asian monsoon domain on present-day and mid-Holocene climate. We demonstrate that the applied land cover change does not only modify the local climate but also change the climate in North Africa and the Middle East via teleconnections. Deforestation in the Asian monsoon domain enhances the rainfall in North Africa. In parts of the Sahara summer precipitation is more than doubled. In contrast, afforestation strongly decreases summer rainfall in the Middle East and even leads to the cessation of the rainfall-activity in some parts of this region. Regarding the local climate, deforestation results in a reduction of precipitation and a cooler climate as grass mostly has a higher albedo than forests. However, in the core region of the Asian monsoon the decrease of evaporative cooling in the monsoon season overcompensates this signal and results in a net warming. Afforestation has mainly the opposite effect, although the pattern of change is less clear. It leads to more precipitation in most parts of the Asian monsoon domain and a warmer climate except for the southern regions where a stronger evaporation decreases near-surface temperatures in the monsoon season. When prescribing mid-Holocene insolation, the pattern of local precipitation change differs. Afforestation particularly increases monsoon rainfall in the region along the Yellow River which was the settlement area of major prehistoric cultures. In this region, the effect of land cover change on precipitation is half as large as the orbitally-induced precipitation change. Thus, our model results reveal that mid- to late-Holocene land cover change could strongly have contributed to the decreasing Asian monsoon precipitation during the Holocene known from reconstructions.

The influence of land cover change in the Asian monsoon region on present-day and mid-Holocene climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dallmeyer, A.; Claussen, M.

2011-06-01

Using the general circulation model ECHAM5/JSBACH, we investigate the biogeophysical effect of large-scale afforestation and deforestation in the Asian monsoon domain on present-day and mid-Holocene climate. We demonstrate that the applied land cover change does not only modify the local climate but also change the climate in North Africa and the Middle East via teleconnections. Deforestation in the Asian monsoon domain enhances the rainfall in North Africa. In parts of the Sahara summer precipitation is more than doubled. In contrast, afforestation strongly decreases summer rainfall in the Middle East and even leads to the cessation of the rainfall-activity in some parts of this region. Regarding the local climate, deforestation results in a reduction of precipitation and a cooler climate as grass mostly has a higher albedo than forests. However, in the core region of the Asian monsoon the decrease in evaporative cooling in the monsoon season overcompensates this signal and results in a net warming. Afforestation has mainly the opposite effect, although the pattern of change is less clear. It leads to more precipitation in most parts of the Asian monsoon domain and a warmer climate except for the southern regions where a stronger evaporation decreases near-surface temperatures in the monsoon season. When prescribing mid-Holocene insolation, the pattern of local precipitation change differs. Afforestation particularly increases monsoon rainfall in the region along the Yellow River which was the settlement area of major prehistoric cultures. In this region, the effect of land cover change on precipitation is half as large as the orbitally-induced precipitation change. Thus, our model results reveal that mid- to late-Holocene land cover change could strongly have contributed to the decreasing Asian monsoon precipitation during the Holocene known from reconstructions.

Hydroclimatic sustainability assessment of changing climate on cholera in the Ganges-Brahmaputra basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nasr-Azadani, Fariborz; Khan, Rakibul; Rahimikollu, Javad; Unnikrishnan, Avinash; Akanda, Ali; Alam, Munirul; Huq, Anwar; Jutla, Antarpreet; Colwell, Rita

2017-10-01

The association of cholera and climate has been extensively documented. However, determining the effects of changing climate on the occurrence of disease remains a challenge. Bimodal peaks of cholera in Bengal Delta are hypothesized to be linked to asymmetric flow of the Ganges and Brahmaputra rivers. Spring cholera is related to intrusion of bacteria-laden coastal seawater during low flow seasons, while autumn cholera results from cross-contamination of water resources when high flows in the rivers cause massive inundation. Coarse resolution of General Circulation Model (GCM) output (usually at 100 - 300 km)cannot be used to evaluate variability at the local scale(10-20 km),hence the goal of this study was to develop a framework that could be used to understand impacts of climate change on occurrence of cholera. Instead of a traditional approach of downscaling precipitation, streamflow of the two rivers was directly linked to GCM outputs, achieving reasonable accuracy (R2 = 0.89 for the Ganges and R2 = 0.91 for the Brahmaputra)using machine learning algorithms (Support Vector Regression-Particle Swarm Optimization). Copula methods were used to determine probabilistic risks of cholera under several discharge conditions. Key results, using model outputs from ECHAM5, GFDL, andHadCM3for A1B and A2 scenarios, suggest that the combined low flow of the two rivers may increase in the future, with high flows increasing for first half of this century, decreasing thereafter. Spring and autumn cholera, assuming societal conditions remain constant e.g., at the current rate, may decrease. However significant shifts were noted in the magnitude of river discharge suggesting that cholera dynamics of the delta may well demonstrate an uncertain predictable pattern of occurrence over the next century.

Regional Climate Change and Development of Public Health Decision Aids

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hegedus, A. M.; Darmenova, K.; Grant, F.; Kiley, H.; Higgins, G. J.; Apling, D.

2011-12-01

According to the World Heath Organization (WHO) climate change is a significant and emerging threat to public health, and changes the way we must look at protecting vulnerable populations. Worldwide, the occurrence of some diseases and other threats to human health depend predominantly on local climate patterns. Rising average temperatures, in combination with changing rainfall patterns and humidity levels, alter the lifecycle and regional distribution of certain disease-carrying vectors, such as mosquitoes, ticks and rodents. In addition, higher surface temperatures will bring heat waves and heat stress to urban regions worldwide and will likely increase heat-related health risks. A growing body of scientific evidence also suggests an increase in extreme weather events such as floods, droughts and hurricanes that can be destructive to human health and well-being. Therefore, climate adaptation and health decision aids are urgently needed by city planners and health officials to determine high risk areas, evaluate vulnerable populations and develop public health infrastructure and surveillance systems. To address current deficiencies in local planning and decision making with respect to regional climate change and its effect on human health, our research is focused on performing a dynamical downscaling with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to develop decision aids that translate the regional climate data into actionable information for users. WRF model is initialized with the Max Planck Institute European Center/Hamburg Model version 5 (ECHAM5) General Circulation Model simulations forced with the Special Report on Emissions (SRES) A1B emissions scenario. Our methodology involves development of climatological indices of extreme weather, quantifying the risk of occurrence of water/rodent/vector-borne diseases as well as developing various heat stress related decision aids. Our results indicate that the downscale simulations provide the necessary detailed output required by state and local governments and the private sector to develop climate adaptation plans with respect to human health.

Hadley cell dynamics of a cold and virtually dry Snowball Earth atmosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Voigt, Aiko; Held, Isaac; Marotzke, Jochem

2010-05-01

We use the full-physics atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM5 to investigate a cold and virtually dry Snowball Earth atmosphere that results from specifying sea ice as the surface boundary condition everywhere, corresponding to a frozen aquaplanet, while keeping total solar irradiance at its present-day value of 1365 Wm-2. The aim of this study is the investigation of the zonal-mean circulation of a Snowball Earth atmosphere, which, due to missing moisture, might constitute an ideal though yet unexplored testbed for theories of atmospheric dynamics. To ease comparison with theories, incoming solar insolation follows permanent equinox conditions with disabled diurnal cycle. The meridional circulation consists of a thermally direct cell extending from the equator to 45 N/S with ascent in the equatorial region, and a weak thermally indirect cell with descent between 45 and 65 N/S and ascent in the polar region. The former cell corresponds to the present-day Earth's Hadley cell, while the latter can be viewed as an eddy-driven Ferrell cell; the present-day Earth's direct polar cell is missing. The Hadley cell itself is subdivided into a vigorous cell confined to the troposphere and a weak deep cell reaching well into the stratosphere. The dynamics of the vigorous Snowball Earth Hadley cell differ substantially from the dynamics of the present-day Hadley cell. The zonal momentum balance shows that in the poleward branch of the vigorous Hadley cell, mean flow meridional advection of absolute vorticity is not only balanced by eddy momentum flux convergence but also by vertical diffusion. Inside the poleward branch, eddies are more important in the upper part and vertical diffusion is more important in the lower part. Vertical diffusion also contributes to the meridional momentum balance as it decelerates the vigorous Hadley cell by downgradient momentum mixing between its poleward and equatorward branch. Zonal winds, therefore, are not in thermal wind balance in the vigorous Hadley cell. Suppressing vertical momentum diffusion above 870 hPa results in a doubling of the vigorous Hadley cell strength. Simulations where we only suppress either vertical diffusion of zonal or meridional momentum show that this doubling can be understood from the decelerating effect of vertical diffusion in the meridional momentum balance. Comparing our simulations with theories, we conclude that neither the axisymmetric Hadley cell model of Held & Hou (1980) nor the eddy-permitting model of T. Schneider et al. (2005, 2006, 2008) are applicable to a Snowball Earth atmosphere since both assume an inviscid upper Hadley cell branch.

Projection of North Atlantic Oscillation and its effect on tracer transport

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bacer, Sara; Christoudias, Theodoros; Pozzer, Andrea

2016-12-01

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) plays an important role in the climate variability of the Northern Hemisphere, with significant consequences on long-range pollutant transport. We investigate the evolution of pollutant transport in the 21st century influenced by the NAO under a global climate change scenario. We use a free-running simulation performed by the ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) model coupled with the ocean general circulation model MPIOM, covering the period from 1950 until 2100. Similarly to other works, the model shows a future northeastward shift of the NAO centres of action and a weak positive trend of the NAO index (over 150 years). Moreover, we find that NAO trends (computed over periods shorter than 30 years) will continue to oscillate between positive and negative values in the future. To investigate the NAO effects on transport we consider carbon monoxide tracers with exponential decay and constant interannual emissions. We find that at the end of the century, the south-western Mediterranean and northern Africa will, during positive NAO phases, see higher pollutant concentrations with respect to the past, while a wider part of northern Europe will, during positive NAO phases, see lower pollutant concentrations. Such results are confirmed by the changes observed in the future for tracer concentration and vertically integrated tracer transport, differentiating the cases of "high NAO" and "low NAO" events.

The role of sea-ice albedo in the climate of slowly rotating aquaplanets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salameh, Josiane; Popp, Max; Marotzke, Jochem

2018-04-01

We investigate the influence of the rotation period (P_{rot}) on the mean climate of an aquaplanet, with a focus on the role of sea-ice albedo. We perform aquaplanet simulations with the atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM6 for various rotation periods from one Earth-day to 365 Earth-days in which case the planet is synchronously rotating. The global-mean surface temperature decreases with increasing P_{rot} and sea ice expands equatorwards. The cooling of the mean climate with increasing P_{rot} is caused partly by the high surface albedo of sea ice on the dayside and partly by the high albedo of the deep convective clouds over the substellar region. The cooling caused by these deep convective clouds is weak for non-synchronous rotations compared to synchronous rotation. Sensitivity simulations with the sea-ice model switched off show that the global-mean surface temperature is up to 27 K higher than in our main simulations with sea ice and thus highlight the large influence of sea ice on the climate. We present the first estimates of the influence of the rotation period on the transition of an Earth-like climate to global glaciation. Our results suggest that global glaciation of planets with synchronous rotation occurs at substantially lower incoming solar irradiation than for planets with slow but non-synchronous rotation.

Climate Downscaling over Nordeste, Brazil, Using the NCEP RSM97.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Liqiang; Ferran Moncunill, David; Li, Huilan; Divino Moura, Antonio; de Assis de Souza Filho, Francisco

2005-02-01

The NCEP Regional Spectral Model (RSM), with horizontal resolution of 60 km, was used to downscale the ECHAM4.5 AGCM (T42) simulations forced with observed SSTs over northeast Brazil. An ensemble of 10 runs for the period January-June 1971-2000 was used in this study. The RSM can resolve the spatial patterns of observed seasonal precipitation and capture the interannual variability of observed seasonal precipitation as well. The AGCM bias in displacement of the Atlantic ITCZ is partially corrected in the RSM. The RSM probability distribution function of seasonal precipitation anomalies is in better agreement with observations than that of the driving AGCM. Good potential prediction skills are demonstrated by the RSM in predicting the interannual variability of regional seasonal precipitation. The RSM can also capture the interannual variability of observed precipitation at intraseasonal time scales, such as precipitation intensity distribution and dry spells. A drought index and a flooding index were adopted to indicate the severity of drought and flooding conditions, and their interannual variability was reproduced by the RSM. The overall RSM performance in the downscaled climate of the ECHAM4.5 AGCM is satisfactory over Nordeste. The primary deficiency is a systematic dry bias for precipitation simulation.

Representation of the West African Monsoon System in the aerosol-climate model ECHAM6-HAM2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stanelle, Tanja; Lohmann, Ulrike; Bey, Isabelle

2017-04-01

The West African Monsoon (WAM) is a major component of the global monsoon system. The temperature contrast between the Saharan land surface in the North and the sea surface temperature in the South dominates the WAM formation. The West African region receives most of its precipitation during the monsoon season between end of June and September. Therefore the existence of the monsoon is of major social and economic importance. We discuss the ability of the climate model ECHAM6 as well as the coupled aerosol climate model ECHAM6-HAM2 to simulate the major features of the WAM system. The north-south temperature gradient is reproduced by both model versions but all model versions fail in reproducing the precipitation amount south of 10° N. A special focus is on the representation of the nocturnal low level jet (NLLJ) and the corresponding enhancement of low level clouds (LLC) at the Guinea Coast, which are a crucial factor for the regional energy budget. Most global climate models have difficulties to represent these features. The pure climate model ECHAM6 is able to simulate the existence of the NLLJ and LLC, but the model does not represent the pronounced diurnal cycle. Overall, the representation of LLC is worse in the coupled model. We discuss the model behaviors on the basis of outputted temperature and humidity tendencies and try to identify potential processes responsible for the model deficiencies.

Seasonal climate information preserved within West Antarctic ice cores and its relation to large-scale atmospheric circulation and regional sea ice variations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Küttel, M.; Steig, E. J.; Ding, Q.; Battisti, D. S.

2010-12-01

Recent evidence suggests that West Antarctica has been warming since at least the 1950s. With the instrumental record being limited to the mid-20th century, indirect information from stable isotopes (δ18O and δD, hereafter collectively δ) preserved within ice cores have commonly been used to place this warming into a long term context. Here, using a large number of δ records obtained during the International Trans-Antarctic Scientific Expedition (ITASE), past variations in West Antarctic δ are not only investigated over time but also in space. This study therefore provides an important complement to longer records from single locations as e.g. the currently being processed West Antarctic ice sheet (WAIS) Divide ice core. Although snow accumulation rates at the ITASE sites in West Antarctica are variable, they are generally high enough to allow studies on sub-annual scale over the last 50-100 years. Here, we show that variations in δ in this region are strongly related to the state of the large-scale atmospheric circulation as well as sea ice variations in the adjacent Southern Ocean, with important seasonal changes. While a strong relationship to sea ice changes in the Ross and Amundsen Sea as well as to the atmospheric circulation offshore is found during austral fall (MAM) and winter (JJA), only modest correlations are found during spring (SON) and summer (DJF). Interestingly, the correlations with the atmospheric circulation in the latter two seasons have the strongest signal over the Antarctic continent, but not offshore - an important difference to MAM and JJA. These seasonal changes are in good agreement with the seasonally varying predominant circulation: meridional with more frequent storms in the Amundsen Sea during MAM and JJA and more zonal and stable during SON and DJF. The relationship to regional temperature is similarly seasonally variable with highest correlations found during MAM and JJA. Notably, the circulation pattern found to be strongest related to West Antarctic MAM and JJA δ variations is comparable to the tropical-polar wave train found by Ding et al. (this meeting, and in review) during JJA, a pattern which appears to be the dominant forcing behind the West Antarctic JJA temperature increase since the 1950s or earlier (Steig et al. 2009). The coupled atmosphere/sea ice influence can be observed for most of the large δ anomalies with, however, 1980 standing out as the prime example with a record-high δ anomaly of up to 3 standard deviations in the ITASE cores. While the anomalously strong northerly onshore winds certainly are a relevant factor, the spatial pattern and seasonal evolution of the δ peaks in the spatial ITASE network indicates that the record-low sea ice concentration in the Ross/Amundsen Sea during 1980 is an important contributor to this δ anomaly. Using observational evidence as well as model simulations from the ECHAM4.6 AGCM, a general framework for the atmosphere/sea ice coupling and its influence on West Antarctic δ is established and presented.

Assessing modelled spatial distributions of ice water path using satellite data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eliasson, S.; Buehler, S. A.; Milz, M.; Eriksson, P.; John, V. O.

2010-05-01

The climate models used in the IPCC AR4 show large differences in monthly mean cloud ice. The most valuable source of information that can be used to potentially constrain the models is global satellite data. For this, the data sets must be long enough to capture the inter-annual variability of Ice Water Path (IWP). PATMOS-x was used together with ISCCP for the annual cycle evaluation in Fig. 7 while ECHAM-5 was used for the correlation with other models in Table 3. A clear distinction between ice categories in satellite retrievals, as desired from a model point of view, is currently impossible. However, long-term satellite data sets may still be used to indicate the climatology of IWP spatial distribution. We evaluated satellite data sets from CloudSat, PATMOS-x, ISCCP, MODIS and MSPPS in terms of monthly mean IWP, to determine which data sets can be used to evaluate the climate models. IWP data from CloudSat cloud profiling radar provides the most advanced data set on clouds. As CloudSat data are too short to evaluate the model data directly, it was mainly used here to evaluate IWP from the other satellite data sets. ISCCP and MSPPS were shown to have comparatively low IWP values. ISCCP shows particularly low values in the tropics, while MSPPS has particularly low values outside the tropics. MODIS and PATMOS-x were in closest agreement with CloudSat in terms of magnitude and spatial distribution, with MODIS being the best of the two. As PATMOS-x extends over more than 25 years and is in fairly close agreement with CloudSat, it was chosen as the reference data set for the model evaluation. In general there are large discrepancies between the individual climate models, and all of the models show problems in reproducing the observed spatial distribution of cloud-ice. Comparisons consistently showed that ECHAM-5 is the GCM from IPCC AR4 closest to satellite observations.

GPU-accelerated atmospheric chemical kinetics in the ECHAM/MESSy (EMAC) Earth system model (version 2.52)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alvanos, Michail; Christoudias, Theodoros

2017-10-01

This paper presents an application of GPU accelerators in Earth system modeling. We focus on atmospheric chemical kinetics, one of the most computationally intensive tasks in climate-chemistry model simulations. We developed a software package that automatically generates CUDA kernels to numerically integrate atmospheric chemical kinetics in the global climate model ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC), used to study climate change and air quality scenarios. A source-to-source compiler outputs a CUDA-compatible kernel by parsing the FORTRAN code generated by the Kinetic PreProcessor (KPP) general analysis tool. All Rosenbrock methods that are available in the KPP numerical library are supported.Performance evaluation, using Fermi and Pascal CUDA-enabled GPU accelerators, shows achieved speed-ups of 4. 5 × and 20. 4 × , respectively, of the kernel execution time. A node-to-node real-world production performance comparison shows a 1. 75 × speed-up over the non-accelerated application using the KPP three-stage Rosenbrock solver. We provide a detailed description of the code optimizations used to improve the performance including memory optimizations, control code simplification, and reduction of idle time. The accuracy and correctness of the accelerated implementation are evaluated by comparing to the CPU-only code of the application. The median relative difference is found to be less than 0.000000001 % when comparing the output of the accelerated kernel the CPU-only code.The approach followed, including the computational workload division, and the developed GPU solver code can potentially be used as the basis for hardware acceleration of numerous geoscientific models that rely on KPP for atmospheric chemical kinetics applications.

Aerosol effect on climate extremes in Europe under different future scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sillmann, J.; Pozzoli, L.; Vignati, E.; Kloster, S.; Feichter, J.

2013-05-01

This study investigates changes in extreme temperature and precipitation events under different future scenarios of anthropogenic aerosol emissions (i.e., SO2 and black and organic carbon) simulated with an aerosol-climate model (ECHAM5-HAM) with focus on Europe. The simulations include a maximum feasible aerosol reduction (MFR) scenario and a current legislation emission (CLEmod) scenario where Europe implements the MFR scenario, but the rest of the world follows the current legislation scenario and a greenhouse gas scenario. The strongest changes relative to the year 2000 are projected for the MFR scenario, in which the global aerosol reduction greatly enforces the general warming effect due to greenhouse gases and results in significant increases of temperature and precipitation extremes in Europe. Regional warming effects can also be identified from aerosol reductions under the CLEmodscenario. This becomes most obvious in the increase of the hottest summer daytime temperatures in Northern Europe.

A COMPARATIVE STUDY ON SPECTRAL ENERGETICS BETWEEN THE NCEP reanalysisII in current climate AND MODEL ECHAM5 in future scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aranha, A. F.; Veiga, J. P.

2013-12-01

Saltzman (1957) starting Lorenz Cycle (1955) derived a set of equations that show the energy contained in the basic state and the disturbed atmosphere, decomposing in various fields disturbance wave type, so as to quantify and analyze the energy of these disorders according to their number or wavelength. Based on the methodology Saltzman, this paper aims a comparative study between the energy of the disturbed state between the NCEP reanalysis-II for the current weather conditions and model ECHAM5 scenarios for future conditions of increased concentration of greenhouse gases (RCP26, RCP45 and RCP85), considering the terms of the generation of available potential energy to nth wave due to diabatic heating, represented by (Gn), the potential energy of nth wave (Pn) and kinetic energy of nth wave (Kn), as well as the conversion of energy between kinetic energy and potential energy nth wave of nth wave, given by (Cn). Two data sets were used in the calculation of the aforementioned terms. For the data set of NCEP and ECHAM5 were used variables, temperature (T), orthogonal wind components (u, v, w) and geopotential height (L), considering daily shared values on a regular grid with spatial resolutions of 2,5 x 2.5 and 1.875 x 1.875 graus, distributed on 12 and 15 levels of pressure (1000.0, 925.0, 850.0, 700.0, 600.0, 500.0, 400.0, 300.0, 250.0, 200.0, 150.0, 100.0 hPa), (1000.0, 850.0, 700.0, 500.0, 250.0, 150.0, 100.0, 70.0, 50.0, 30.0, 10.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.3, 0.1 hPa) for the period of 1979-1999 and 2090-2100, respectively. The results show that most of the kinetic energy of disturbance to nth waves is concentrated in the first 15 wave numbers, both for the weather-NCEP II as to ECHAM5, having more significant increase in the profile and having a RCP85 energy cascade. This increase in kinetic energy was expected due to the increased energy in the system. For Pn, increasing the potential energy is also expected in view of the increased diabatic heating, but the energy jump is large spectrum in the range of 1 a 5, growth or accumulation of energy is visible in the figure wave, almost double the energy accumulated by the wave number 2, a derivative obeying the strong energy in the wave spectrum. We can conclude that the energy contained in a nonlinear way on the biggest waves are not shared aplenty. According to the results, the term conversion in Kn Pn, represented by Cn, reveals important characteristics in the energy spectrum. This we note that Pn feeds both the planetary waves and intermediate waves as synoptic scale. However, the production of Kn from Pn is added to the first wave specifically. It is also observed that Cn does not show large variations along the spectral profile. It is noteworthy that the energy conversions of RCP's are much smaller than the energy conversions NCEP-II, indicating that when there are increased concentrations of greenhouse gases is increasing Gen. therefore increased Pn and fall in Cn. Negative values of Cn are likely to occur, which would represent the conversion of kinetic energy into potential energy of the waves of the basic state.

General circulation of the South Atlantic between 5 deg N and 35 deg S

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ollitrault, Michel; Mercier, H.; Blanc, F.; Letraon, L. Y.

1991-01-01

The TOPEX/POSEIDON altimeter will provide the temporal mean seal level. So, secondly, we propose to compute the difference between these two surfaces (mean sea level minus general circulation dynamic topography). The result will be an estimate of the marine geoid, which is time invariant for the 5-year period under consideration. If this geoid is precise enough, it will permit a description of seasonal variability of the large-scale surface circulation. If there happens to be enough float data, it may be possible to infer the first vertical modes of this variability. Thus the main goal of our investigation is to determine the 3-D general circulation of the South Atlantic and the large-scale seasonal fluctuations. This last objective, however, may be restricted to the western part of the South Atlantic because float deployments have been scheduled only in the Brasil basin.

Simulation of Tropical Rainfall Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bader, J.; Latif, M.

2002-12-01

The impact of sea surface temperature (SST) - especially the role of the tropical Atlantic meridional SST gradient and the El Nino-Southern Oscillation - on precipitation is investigated with the atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM4/T42. Ensemble experiments - driven with observed SST - show that Atlantic SST has a significant influence on precipitation over West Africa and northeast Brazil. SST sensitivity experiments were performed in which the climatological SST was enhanced or decreased by one Kelvin in certain ocean areas. Changing SST in the eastern tropical Atlantic caused only significant changes along the Guinea Coast, with a positive anomaly (SSTA) increasing rainfall and a negative SSTA reducing it. The response was nearly linear. Changing SST in other ocean areas caused significant changes over West Africa, especially in the Sahel area. The response is found to be non linear, with only negative SSTA leading to significant reduction in Sahel rainfall. Also, the impact of the SSTAs from the different ocean regions was not additive with respect to the rainfall. The influence of SST on precipitation over northeast Brazil (Nordeste) was also investigated. Three experiments were performed in which the climatological SST was enhanced/decreased or decreased/enhanced by one Kelvin in the North/South Atlantic and increased by two Kelvin in the Nino3 ocean area. All experiments caused significant changes over Nordeste, with an enhanced/reduced SST gradient in the Atlantic increasing/reducing rainfall. The response was nearly linear. The main effect of the Atlantic SST gradient was a shift of the ITCZ, caused by trade wind changes. The ''El Nino'' event generates a significant reduction in Nordeste rainfall. A significant positive SLP anomaly occurs in northeast Brazil which may be associated with the descending branch of the Walker circulation. Also a significant positive SLP over the Atlantic from 30S to 10N north occurs. This results in a reduced SLP gradient from the subtropical highs to the equator and a weakening of the trade winds.

Concurrent Simulation of the Eddying General Circulation and Tides in a Global Ocean Model

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-01-01

Eddying General Circulation and Tides in a Global Ocean Model 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 0602435N 6...STATEMENT Approved for public release, distribution is unlimited. 13. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES 14. ABSTRACT This paper presents a five-year global ...running 25-h average to approximately separate tidal and non-tidal components of the near-bottom flow. In contrast to earlier high-resolution global

Effects of high-frequency activity on latent heat flux of MJO

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Yingxia; Hsu, Pang-Chi; Li, Tim

2018-04-01

The effect of high-frequency (HF) variability on latent heat flux (LHF) associated with the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) during the boreal winter is investigated through diagnosis using two reanalysis datasets and numerical experiments of an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM). The diagnostic results show that the HF activities exert an impact on the variability of MJO LHF mainly through their interactions with the longer than 90-day low-frequency background state (LFBS). The contribution of intraseasonal LHF induced by the interactions between LFBS and HF activities accounts for more than 20% of the total intraseasonal LHF over active MJO regions. The intraseasonal LHF induced by the LFBS-HF interaction is in phase with the MJO convection, while the total intraseasonal LHF appears at and to the west of the MJO convection center. This suggests that the intraseasonal LHF via the feedback of HF activity interacting with LFBS is conducive to the maintenance and eastward propagation of MJO convection. To confirm the role of HF disturbances in MJO convection activity, we carry out a series of experiments using the AGCM of ECHAM4, which captures well the general features of MJO. We select a number of MJO cases with enhanced convective signals and significant eastward propagation from a 30-year climatological simulation. Once the HF components of surface wind and moisture fields in LHF are excluded in model integration for each MJO case, most of the simulated MJO convection shows weakened activity and a slower propagation speed compared to the simulations containing all time-scale components. The outputs of these sensitivity experiments support the diagnostic results that HF activities contribute to the maintenance and propagation of MJO convection through the intraseasonal LHF induced by the scale interaction of HF activities with lower frequency variability.

Effect of Interactive River Routing on North Atlantic Overturning in a Simulation of the last Deglaciation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mikolajewicz, Uwe; Ziemen, Florian; Kapsch, Marie; Meccia, Virna

2017-04-01

One of the major challenges in climate modeling is the simulation of glacial-interglacial transitions. A few models of intermediate complexity have been successful in simulating the last termination. Complex atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) with prescribed ice sheets are able to yield realistic climate changes. Here we present results from our first attempt to simulate a substantial part of the last glacial cycle with an AOGCM coupled interactively with a state-of-the-art ice sheet model. The ECHAM5/MPIOM AOGCM is interactively coupled to the dynamical ice sheet model PISM and the dynamical vegetation model LPJ. The model is integrated from the late Glacial into the Holocene using insolation and greenhouse gas concentrations as transient forcing. To make the long simulations feasible, the atmosphere is accelerated by a factor of 10 relative to the other components using a periodical-synchronous coupling technique. The land sea mask remains fixed at the LGM state. River routing and surface elevation are calculated interactively. A mini-ensemble with different initial conditions is performed. Additionally, one fully synchronously simulation, without acceleration in the atmosphere, is run. In all simulations the northern hemisphere deglaciation starts between 18 and 17 kyr BP, consistent with the onset of global warming. The model produces Heinrich event like variability. These rapid ice discharge events have a strong impact on the North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (NAMOC). The interactive river routing has a strong impact on the simulated NAMOC during the deglaciation. The retreat of the Laurentide Ice Sheet together with the depressed topography due to the former ice load leads to a redirection of the river routes.. In particular, the discharge route for runoff from the melting southwestern Laurentide shifts from the Gulf of Mexico to the Arctic. The consequence is a rapid reduction/suppression of the North Atlantic deep water (NADW) formation. When the Laurentide Ice Sheet retreats from the Hudson Strait, this becomes the new drainage route. Hence, fresh water is released into the Labrador Sea and is less effective in suppressing the deep water formation in the North Atlantic. As a consequence, the NADW formation recovers within a few decades. Our results show the potential importance of interactive river routing for rapid changes in NAMOC strength during the deglaciation.

Evaluation of East Asian climatology as simulated by seven coupled models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Dabang; Wang, Huijun; Lang, Xianmei

2005-07-01

Using observation and reanalysis data throughout 1961 1990, the East Asian surface air temperature, precipitation and sea level pressure climatology as simulated by seven fully coupled atmosphere-ocean models, namely CCSR/NIES, CGCM2, CSIRO-Mk2, ECHAM4/OPYC3, GFDL-R30, HadCM3, and NCAR-PCM, are systematically evaluated in this study. It is indicated that the above models can successfully reproduce the annual and seasonal surface air temperature and precipitation climatology in East Asia, with relatively good performance for boreal autumn and annual mean. The models’ ability to simulate surface air temperature is more reliable than precipitation. In addition, the models can dependably capture the geographical distribution pattern of annual, boreal winter, spring and autumn sea level pressure in East Asia. In contrast, relatively large simulation errors are displayed when simulated boreal summer sea level pressure is compared with reanalysis data in East Asia. It is revealed that the simulation errors for surface air temperature, precipitation and sea level pressure are generally large over and around the Tibetan Plateau. No individual model is best in every aspect. As a whole, the ECHAM4/OPYC3 and HadCM3 performances are much better, whereas the CGCM2 is relatively poorer in East Asia. Additionally, the seven-model ensemble mean usually shows a relatively high reliability.

Near-inertial Wave Studies using Historical Mooring Records and a High-Resolution General Circulation Model

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-01-01

Mooring Records and a High- Resolution General Circulation Model Harper Simmons School of Fisheries and Ocean Sciences 903 Koyukuk Drive Fairbanks AK...oceanographic community has been to develop a global internal wave prediction system analogous to those already in place for surface waves. Early steps have...AUTHOR(S) 5d. PROJECT NUMBER 5e. TASK NUMBER 5f. WORK UNIT NUMBER 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) School of Fisheries and Ocean

Water Isotopes in Precipitation: Data/Model Comparison for Present-Day and Past Climates

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jouzel, J.; Hoffmann, G.; Masson, V.

1998-01-01

Variations of HDO and H2O-18 concentrations are observed in precipitation both on a geographical and on a temporal basis. These variations, resulting from successive isotopic fractionation processes at each phase change of water during its atmospheric cycle, are well documented through the IAEA/WMO network and other sources. Isotope concentrations are, in middle and high latitudes, linearly related to the annual mean temperature at the precipitation site. Paleoclimatologists have used this relationship to infer paleotemperatures from isotope paleodata extractable from ice cores, deep groundwater and other such sources. For this application to be valid, however, the spatial relationship must also hold in time at a given location as the location undergoes a series of climatic changes. Progress in water isotope modeling aimed at examining and evaluating this assumption has been recently reviewed with a focus on polar regions and, more specifically, on Greenland. This article was largely based on the results obtained using the isotopic version of the NASA/GISS Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) fitted with isotope tracer diagnostics. We extend this review in comparing the results of two different isotopic AGCMs (NASA/GISS and ECHAM) and in examining, with a more global perspective, the validity of the above assumption, i.e. the equivalence of the spatial and temporal isotope-temperature relationship. We also examine recent progress made in modeling the relationship between the conditions prevailing in moisture source regions for precipitation and the deuterium-excess of that precipitation.

Ozone impacts of gas-aerosol uptake in global chemistry transport models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stadtler, Scarlet; Simpson, David; Schröder, Sabine; Taraborrelli, Domenico; Bott, Andreas; Schultz, Martin

2018-03-01

The impact of six heterogeneous gas-aerosol uptake reactions on tropospheric ozone and nitrogen species was studied using two chemical transport models, the Meteorological Synthesizing Centre-West of the European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme (EMEP MSC-W) and the European Centre Hamburg general circulation model combined with versions of the Hamburg Aerosol Model and Model for Ozone and Related chemical Tracers (ECHAM-HAMMOZ). Species undergoing heterogeneous reactions in both models include N2O5, NO3, NO2, O3, HNO3, and HO2. Since heterogeneous reactions take place at the aerosol surface area, the modelled surface area density (Sa) of both models was compared to a satellite product retrieving the surface area. This comparison shows a good agreement in global pattern and especially the capability of both models to capture the extreme aerosol loadings in east Asia. The impact of the heterogeneous reactions was evaluated by the simulation of a reference run containing all heterogeneous reactions and several sensitivity runs. One reaction was turned off in each sensitivity run to compare it with the reference run. The analysis of the sensitivity runs confirms that the globally most important heterogeneous reaction is the one of N2O5. Nevertheless, NO2, HNO3, and HO2 heterogeneous reactions gain relevance particularly in east Asia due to the presence of high NOx concentrations and high Sa in the same region. The heterogeneous reaction of O3 itself on dust is of minor relevance compared to the other heterogeneous reactions. The impacts of the N2O5 reactions show strong seasonal variations, with the biggest impacts on O3 in springtime when photochemical reactions are active and N2O5 levels still high. Evaluation of the models with northern hemispheric ozone surface observations yields a better agreement of the models with observations in terms of concentration levels, variability, and temporal correlations at most sites when the heterogeneous reactions are incorporated. Our results are loosely consistent with results from earlier studies, although the magnitude of changes induced by N2O5 reaction is at the low end of estimates, which seems to fit a trend, whereby the more recent the study the lower the impacts of these reactions.

Future aerosol concentrations in Europe: Effects of changing meteorology and emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coleman, Liz; Martin, Damien; Radalescu, Razvan; O'Dowd, Colin

2013-05-01

The ambient particulate matter concentrations are assessed using annual simulations for model validation period 2006, and for future time-slice years 2030, 2050 and 2100 under RCP scenario 6.0. Meteorological initial and boundary conditions are procured from ECHAM5-HAMMOC global simulations. The contribution of natural and anthropogenic processes to aerosol concentrations are assessed with particular emphasis on accumulation mode sea salt, organic enrichment thereof and future levels of secondary organic aerosol from isoprene.

Late quaternary climate, precipitation δ18O, and Indian monsoon variations over the Tibetan Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Jingmin; Ehlers, Todd A.; Werner, Martin; Mutz, Sebastian G.; Steger, Christian; Paeth, Heiko

2017-01-01

The Himalaya-Tibet orogen contains one of the largest modern topographic and climate gradients on Earth. Proxy data from the region provide a basis for understanding Tibetan Plateau paleo climate and paleo elevation reconstructions. Paleo climate model comparisons to proxy data compliment sparsely located data and can improve climate reconstructions. This study investigates temporal changes in precipitation, temperature and precipitation δ18O (δO18p) over the Himalaya-Tibet from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) to present. We conduct a series of atmospheric General Circulation Model (GCM, ECHAM5-wiso) experiments at discrete time slices including a Pre-industrial (PI, Pre-1850 AD), Mid Holocene (MH, 6 ka BP) and LGM (21 ka BP) simulations. Model predictions are compared with existing proxy records. Model results show muted climate changes across the plateau during the MH and larger changes occurring during the LGM. During the LGM surface temperatures are ∼ 2.0- 4.0 °C lower across the Himalaya and Tibet, and >5.0 °C lower at the northwest and northeast edge of the Tibetan Plateau. LGM mean annual precipitation is 200-600 mm/yr lower over on the Tibetan Plateau. Model and proxy data comparison shows a good agreement for the LGM, but large differences for the MH. Large differences are also present between MH proxy studies near each other. The precipitation weighted annual mean δ18Op lapse rate at the Himalaya is about 0.4 ‰ /km larger during the MH and 0.2 ‰ /km smaller during the LGM than during the PI. Finally, rainfall associated with the continental Indian monsoon (between 70°E-110°E and 10°N-30°N) is about 44% less in the LGM than during PI times. The LGM monsoon period is about one month shorter than in PI times. Taken together, these results document significant spatial and temporal changes in temperature, precipitation, and δ18Op over the last ∼21 ka. These changes are large enough to impact interpretations of proxy data and the intensity of the Indian monsoon.

A multi-scale methodology for comparing GCM and RCM results over the Eastern Mediterranean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samuels, Rana; Krichak, Simon; Breitgand, Joseph; Alpert, Pinhas

2010-05-01

The importance of skillful climate modeling is increasingly being realized as results are being incorporated into environmental, economic, and even business planning. Global circulation models (GCMs) employed by the IPCC provide results at spatial scales of hundreds of kilometers, which is useful for understanding global trends but not appropriate for use as input into regional and local impacts models used to inform policy and development. To address this shortcoming, regional climate models (RCMs) which dynamically downscale the results of the GCMs are used. In this study we present first results of a dynamically downscaled RCM focusing on the Eastern Mediterranean region. For the historical 1960-2000 time period, results at a spatial scale of both 25 km and 50 km are compared with historical station data from 5 locations across Israel as well as with the results of 3 GCM models (ECHAM5, NOAA GFDL, and CCCMA) at annual, monthly and daily time scales. Results from a recently completed Japanese GCM at a spatial scale of 20 km are also included. For the historical validation period, we show that as spatial scale increases the skill in capturing annual and inter-annual temperature and rainfall also increases. However, for intra-seasonal rainfall characteristics important for hydrological and agricultural planning (eg. dry and wet spells, number of rain days) the GCM results (including the 20 km Japanese model) capture the historical trends better than the dynamically downscaled RegCM. For future scenarios of temperature and precipitation changes, we compare results across the models for the available time periods, generating a range of future trends.

Lightning Forcing in Global Fire Models: The Importance of Temporal Resolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Felsberg, A.; Kloster, S.; Wilkenskjeld, S.; Krause, A.; Lasslop, G.

2018-01-01

In global fire models, lightning is typically prescribed from observational data with monthly mean temporal resolution while meteorological forcings, such as precipitation or temperature, are prescribed in a daily resolution. In this study, we investigate the importance of the temporal resolution of the lightning forcing for the simulation of burned area by varying from daily to monthly and annual mean forcing. For this, we utilize the vegetation fire model JSBACH-SPITFIRE to simulate burned area, forced with meteorological and lightning data derived from the general circulation model ECHAM6. On a global scale, differences in burned area caused by lightning forcing applied in coarser temporal resolution stay below 0.55% compared to the use of daily mean forcing. Regionally, however, differences reach up to 100%, depending on the region and season. Monthly averaged lightning forcing as well as the monthly lightning climatology cause differences through an interaction between lightning ignitions and fire prone weather conditions, accounted for by the fire danger index. This interaction leads to decreased burned area in the boreal zone and increased burned area in the Tropics and Subtropics under the coarser temporal resolution. The exclusion of interannual variability, when forced with the lightning climatology, has only a minor impact on the simulated burned area. Annually averaged lightning forcing causes differences as a direct result of the eliminated seasonal characteristics of lightning. Burned area is decreased in summer and increased in winter where fuel is available. Regions with little seasonality, such as the Tropics and Subtropics, experience an increase in burned area.

Global radiative adjustment after a collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Drijfhout, Sybren S.

2015-10-01

The transient climate response to a collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is analysed from the difference between two ensembles of climate model simulations with ECHAM5/MPI-OM, one with hosing and the other without hosing. The primary effect of the collapse is to redistribute heat over the two hemispheres. However, Northern Hemisphere sea ice increase in response to the AMOC collapse induces a hemisphere-wide cooling, amplified by atmospheric feedbacks, in particular water vapour. The Southern Hemisphere warming is governed by slower processes. After 25 years the global cooling peaks. Thereafter, the response is characterised by a gradual readjustment of global mean temperature. During the AMOC collapse a downward radiation anomaly arises at the top of the atmosphere (TOA), heating the earth's surface. The net downward radiation anomaly at TOA arises from reduced longwave emission by the atmosphere, overcompensating the increased net upward anomalies in shortwave and longwave radiation at the surface. This radiation anomaly is associated with net ocean heat uptake: cooling of the overlying atmosphere results from reduced ocean heat release through the increase of sea-ice cover in the North Atlantic. The change in energy flow arises from the reduction in latent and sensible heat flux, which dominate the surface radiation budget. Similar experiments with a climate model of intermediate complexity reveal a stronger shortwave response that acts to reduce the net downward radiation anomaly at TOA. The net shortwave and longwave radiation anomalies at TOA always decrease during the first 100 years after the AMOC collapse, but in the intermediate complexity model this is associated with a sign change after 90 years when the net radiation anomaly at TOA becomes upward, accompanied by net ocean heat loss. After several hundred years the longwave and shortwave anomalies increase again, while the net residual at TOA remains small. This radiative adjustment is associated with the transition to a colder climate.

Will climate change affect weather types associated with flooding in the Elbe river basin?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nissen, Katrin M.; Pardowitz, Tobias; Ulbrich, Uwe; Nied, Manuela

2013-04-01

This study investigates the effects of anthropogenic climate change on weather types associated with flooding in the Elbe river basin. The study is based on an ensemble of 3 simulations with the ECHAM5 MPIOM coupled model forced with historical and SRES A1B greenhouse gas concentrations. Relevant weather types, occuring in association with recent flood events, are identified in the ERA40 reanalysis data set. The weather types are classified with the SANDRA cluster algorithm. Distributions of tropospheric humidity content, 500 hPa geopotential height and 500 hPa temperature over Europe are taken as input parameters. 8 (out of 40) weather types are found to be associated with flooding events in the Elbe river basin. The majority of these (6) typically occur during winter, while 2 are warm season patterns. Downscaling reveals characteristic precipitation anomalies associated with the individual patterns. The 8 flood relevant weather types are then identified in the ECHAM5 simulations. The effect of climate change on these patterns is investigated by comparing the last 30 years of the previous century to the last 30 years of the 21st century. According to the model the frequency of most patterns will not change. 5 patterns may experience a statistically significant increase in the mean precipitation over the catchment area and 4 patterns an increase in extreme precipitation. Persistence may slightly decrease for 2 patterns and remain unchanged for the others. Overall, this indicates a moderate increase in the risk for Elbe river flooding, related to changes in the weather patterns, in the coming decades.

Modelling carbon cycle in boreal wetlands with the Earth System Model ECHAM6/MPIOM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Getzieh, Robert J.; Brovkin, Victor; Kleinen, Thomas; Raivonen, Maarit; Sevanto, Sanna

2010-05-01

Wetlands of the northern high latitudes provide excellent conditions for peat accumulation and methanogenesis. High moisture and low O2 content in the soils lead to effective preservation of soil organic matter and methane emissions. Boreal Wetlands contain about 450 PgC and currently constitute a significant natural source of methane (CH4) even though they cover only 3% of the global land surface. While storing carbon and removing CO2 from the atmosphere, boreal wetlands have contributed to global cooling on millennial timescales. Undisturbed boreal wetlands are likely to continue functioning as a net carbon sink. On the other hand these carbon pools might be destabilised in future since they are sensitive to climate change. Given that processes of peat accumulation and decay are closely dependent on hydrology and temperature, this balance may be altered significantly in the future. As a result, northern wetlands could have a large impact on carbon cycle-climate feedback mechanisms and therefore play an important role in global carbon cycle dynamics. However global biogeochemistry models used for simulations of CO2 dynamics in past and future climates usually neglect carbon cycle in wetlands. We investigate the potential for positive or negative feedbacks to the climate system through fluxes of greenhouse gases (CO2 and CH4) with the general circulation model ECHAM6/MPIOM. A generic model of peat accumulation and decay has been developed and implemented into the land surface module JSBACH. We consider anaerobic biogeochemical processes which lead to formation of thick organic soils. Furthermore we consider specific wetland plant functional types (PFTs) in our model such as vascular plants (sedges) which impact methane transport and oxidation processes and non vascular plants (sphagnum mosses) which are promoting peat growth. As prototypes we use the modelling approaches by Frolking et al. (2001) as well as Walter & Heimann (2001) for the peat dynamics, and the wetland model by Wania (2008) for vegetation cover and methane emissions. An initial distribution of wetlands follows the GLWD-3 map by Lehner and Döll (2004). A dynamical wetlands hydrology scheme (T. Stacke) and a methane transport and emission model (M. Raivonen) are at the moment also under development at the MPI for Meteorology respectively in close cooperation with the University of Helsinki. First results of our modelling approach will be presented. REFERENCES S. Frolking et al., Ecosystems 4, 479-498 (2001). B. Lehner et al., Journal of Hydrology 296, 1-22 (2004). B. P. Walter et al., J. Geophys. Res. 106, D24, 34189-34206 and 34207-34219 (2001). R. Wania et al., Global Biogeochem. Cycles 23, GB3014 and GB3015 (2009).

Factors controlling the initiation of Snowball Earth events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Voigt, A.

2012-12-01

During the Neoproterozoic glaciations tropical continents were covered by active glaciers that extended down to sea level. To explain these glaciers, the Snowball Earth hypothesis assumes that oceans were completely sea-ice covered during these glaciation, but there is an ongoing debate whether or not some regions of the tropical oceans remained open. In this talk, I will describe past and ongoing climate modelling activities with the comprehensive coupled climate model ECHAM5/MPI-OM that identify and compare factors that control the initiation of Snowball Earth events. I first show that shifting the continents from their present-day location to their Marinoan (635 My BP) low-latitude location increases the planetary albedo, cools the climate, and thereby allows Snowball Earth initiation at higher levels of total solar irradiance and atmospheric CO2. I then present simulations with successively lowered bare sea-ice albedo, disabled sea-ice dynamics, and switched-off ocean heat transport. These simulations show that both lowering the bare sea-ice albedo and disabling sea-ice dynamics increase the critical sea-ice cover in ECHAM5/MPI-OM, but sea-ice dynamics due to strong equatorward sea-ice transport have a much larger influence on the critical CO2. Disabling sea-ice transport allows a state with sea-ice margin at 10 deg latitude by virtue of the Jormungand mechanism. The accumulation of snow on land, in combination with tropical land temperatures below or close to freezing, suggests that tropical land glaciers could easily form in such a state. However, in contrast to aquaplanet simulations without ocean heat transport, there is no sign of a Jormungand hysteresis in the coupled simulations. Ocean heat transport is not responsible for the lack of a Jormungand hysteresis in the coupled simulations. By relating the above findings to previous studies, I will outline promising future avenues of research on the initiation of Snowball Earth events. In particular, an improved understanding and modelling of sea-ice dynamics is needed.ea-ice cover as a function of CO2 for ECHAM5/MPI-OM simulations with high bare sea-ice albedo (black circles), low bare sea-ice albedo (blue squares), low bare sea-ice albedo and disabled sea-ice dynamics (red triangles), and low bare sea-ice albedo, disabled sea-ice dynamics and zero ocean heat transport (green diamonds). All simulations use Marinoan low-latitude continents and a solar constant reduced to 94% of its modern value.

Eddy Resolving Global Ocean Prediction including Tides

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-09-30

atlantic meridional overturning circulation in the subpolar North Atlantic . Journal of Geophysical Research vol 118, doi:10.1002/jgrc,20065. [published, refereed] ...global ocean circulation model was examined using results from years 2005-2009 of a seven and a half year 1/12.5° global simulation that resolves...internal tides, along with barotropic tides and the eddying general circulation . We examined tidal amplitudes computed using 18 183-day windows that

Role of absorbing aerosols on hot extremes in India in a GCM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mondal, A.; Sah, N.; Venkataraman, C.; Patil, N.

2017-12-01

Temperature extremes and heat waves in North-Central India during the summer months of March through June are known for causing significant impact in terms of human health, productivity and mortality. While greenhouse gas-induced global warming is generally believed to intensify the magnitude and frequency of such extremes, aerosols are usually associated with an overall cooling, by virtue of their dominant radiation scattering nature, in most world regions. Recently, large-scale atmospheric conditions leading to heat wave and extreme temperature conditions have been analysed for the North-Central Indian region. However, the role of absorbing aerosols, including black carbon and dust, is still not well understood, in mediating hot extremes in the region. In this study, we use 30-year simulations from a chemistry-coupled atmosphere-only General Circulation Model (GCM), ECHAM6-HAM2, forced with evolving aerosol emissions in an interactive aerosol module, along with observed sea surface temperatures, to examine large-scale and mesoscale conditions during hot extremes in India. The model is first validated with observed gridded temperature and reanalysis data, and is found to represent observed variations in temperature in the North-Central region and concurrent large-scale atmospheric conditions during high temperature extremes realistically. During these extreme events, changes in near surface properties include a reduction in single scattering albedo and enhancement in short-wave solar heating rate, compared to climatological conditions. This is accompanied by positive anomalies of black carbon and dust aerosol optical depths. We conclude that the large-scale atmospheric conditions such as the presence of anticyclones and clear skies, conducive to heat waves and high temperature extremes, are exacerbated by absorbing aerosols in North-Central India. Future air quality regulations are expected to reduce sulfate particles and their masking of GHG warming. It is concurrently important to mitigate emissions of warming black carbon particles, to manage future climate change-induced hot extremes.

Stratospheric wind errors, initial states and forecast skill in the GLAS general circulation model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tenenbaum, J.

1983-01-01

Relations between stratospheric wind errors, initial states and 500 mb skill are investigated using the GLAS general circulation model initialized with FGGE data. Erroneous stratospheric winds are seen in all current general circulation models, appearing also as weak shear above the subtropical jet and as cold polar stratospheres. In this study it is shown that the more anticyclonic large-scale flows are correlated with large forecast stratospheric winds. In addition, it is found that for North America the resulting errors are correlated with initial state jet stream accelerations while for East Asia the forecast winds are correlated with initial state jet strength. Using 500 mb skill scores over Europe at day 5 to measure forecast performance, it is found that both poor forecast skill and excessive stratospheric winds are correlated with more anticyclonic large-scale flows over North America. It is hypothesized that the resulting erroneous kinetic energy contributes to the poor forecast skill, and that the problem is caused by a failure in the modeling of the stratospheric energy cycle in current general circulation models independent of vertical resolution.

Multi-model projections of Indian summer monsoon climate changes under A1B scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Niu, X.; Wang, S.; Tang, J.

2016-12-01

As part of the Regional Climate Model Intercomparison Project for Asia, the projections of Indian summer monsoon climate changes are constructed using three global climate models (GCMs) and seven regional climate models (RCMs) during 2041-2060 based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change A1B emission scenario. For the control climate of 1981-2000, most nested RCMs show advantage over the driving GCM of European Centre/Hamburg Fifth Generation (ECHAM5) in the temporal-spatial distributions of temperature and precipitation over Indian Peninsula. Following the driving GCM of ECHAM5, most nested RCMs produce advanced monsoon onset in the control climate. For future climate widespread summer warming is projected over Indian Peninsula by all climate models, with the Multi-RCMs ensemble mean (MME) temperature increasing of 1°C to 2.5°C and the maximum warming center located in northern Indian Peninsula. While for the precipitation, a large inter-model spread is projected by RCMs, with wetter condition in MME projections and significant increase over southern India. Driven by the same GCM, most RCMs project advanced monsoon onset while delayed onset is found in two Regional Climate Model (RegCM3) projections, indicating uncertainty can be expected in the Indian Summer Monsoon onset. All climate models except Conformal-Cubic Atmospheric Model with equal resolution (referred as CCAMP) and two RegCM3 models project stronger summer monsoon during 2041-2060. The disagreement in precipitation projections by RCMs indicates that the surface climate change on regional scale is not only dominated by the large-scale forcing which is provided by driving GCM but also sensitive to RCM' internal physics.

Towards multi-resolution global climate modeling with ECHAM6-FESOM. Part II: climate variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rackow, T.; Goessling, H. F.; Jung, T.; Sidorenko, D.; Semmler, T.; Barbi, D.; Handorf, D.

2018-04-01

This study forms part II of two papers describing ECHAM6-FESOM, a newly established global climate model with a unique multi-resolution sea ice-ocean component. While part I deals with the model description and the mean climate state, here we examine the internal climate variability of the model under constant present-day (1990) conditions. We (1) assess the internal variations in the model in terms of objective variability performance indices, (2) analyze variations in global mean surface temperature and put them in context to variations in the observed record, with particular emphasis on the recent warming slowdown, (3) analyze and validate the most common atmospheric and oceanic variability patterns, (4) diagnose the potential predictability of various climate indices, and (5) put the multi-resolution approach to the test by comparing two setups that differ only in oceanic resolution in the equatorial belt, where one ocean mesh keeps the coarse 1° resolution applied in the adjacent open-ocean regions and the other mesh is gradually refined to 0.25°. Objective variability performance indices show that, in the considered setups, ECHAM6-FESOM performs overall favourably compared to five well-established climate models. Internal variations of the global mean surface temperature in the model are consistent with observed fluctuations and suggest that the recent warming slowdown can be explained as a once-in-one-hundred-years event caused by internal climate variability; periods of strong cooling in the model (`hiatus' analogs) are mainly associated with ENSO-related variability and to a lesser degree also to PDO shifts, with the AMO playing a minor role. Common atmospheric and oceanic variability patterns are simulated largely consistent with their real counterparts. Typical deficits also found in other models at similar resolutions remain, in particular too weak non-seasonal variability of SSTs over large parts of the ocean and episodic periods of almost absent deep-water formation in the Labrador Sea, resulting in overestimated North Atlantic SST variability. Concerning the influence of locally (isotropically) increased resolution, the ENSO pattern and index statistics improve significantly with higher resolution around the equator, illustrating the potential of the novel unstructured-mesh method for global climate modeling.

Simulation climate change impact on runoff and sediment yield in a small watershed in the basque country, northern Spain.

PubMed

Zabaleta, Ane; Meaurio, Maite; Ruiz, Estilita; Antigüedad, Iñaki

2014-01-01

Climate change is likely to have an impact on runoff and fluvial sediments in watersheds. These factors are among those used to characterize water bodies in relation to the European Water Framework Directive (WFD). Hence, it is important to investigate the extent to which climate change may hinder the achievement of the objectives of the WFD. We explored the potential impact of climate change on runoff and sediment yield for the Aixola watershed using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The model calibration (2007-2010) and validation (2005-2006) results were rated as satisfactory. Subsequently, simulations were run for four climate change model-scenario combinations based on two general circulation models (CGCM2 and ECHAM4) under two emissions scenarios (A2 and B2) from 2011 to 2100. All combinations predicted that runoff and sediment yield would decrease compared with baseline (1961-1990). Three combinations suggested that runoff and sediments would decrease by 0.13 to 0.45 m s and 0.11 to 0.43 t every year from 2011 to 2100. However, the CGCM2-B2 scenario resulted in an "extremely likely" increase in runoff and sediments of 0.94 m s and 0.57 t every year. These variations in annual sediment yield are closely related to changes in precipitation. The high degree of uncertainty in the results must be considered when assessing potential impacts and making decisions about adaptation measures. Nevertheless, this first attempt to estimate future sediment yields in our region could be a useful starting point to explore future hydrological impacts in the area. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.

Projections of increased and decreased dengue incidence under climate change.

PubMed

Williams, C R; Mincham, G; Faddy, H; Viennet, E; Ritchie, S A; Harley, D

2016-10-01

Dengue is the world's most prevalent mosquito-borne disease, with more than 200 million people each year becoming infected. We used a mechanistic virus transmission model to determine whether climate warming would change dengue transmission in Australia. Using two climate models each with two carbon emission scenarios, we calculated future dengue epidemic potential for the period 2046-2064. Using the ECHAM5 model, decreased dengue transmission was predicted under the A2 carbon emission scenario, whereas some increases are likely under the B1 scenario. Dengue epidemic potential may decrease under climate warming due to mosquito breeding sites becoming drier and mosquito survivorship declining. These results contradict most previous studies that use correlative models to show increased dengue transmission under climate warming. Dengue epidemiology is determined by a complex interplay between climatic, human host, and pathogen factors. It is therefore naive to assume a simple relationship between climate and incidence, and incorrect to state that climate warming will uniformly increase dengue transmission, although in general the health impacts of climate change will be negative.

Modelling absorbing aerosol with ECHAM-HAM: Insights from regional studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tegen, Ina; Heinold, Bernd; Schepanski, Kerstin; Banks, Jamie; Kubin, Anne; Schacht, Jacob

2017-04-01

Quantifying distributions and properties of absorbing aerosol is a basis for investigations of interactions of aerosol particles with radiation and climate. While evaluations of aerosol models by field measurements can be particularly successful at the regional scale, such results need to be put into a global context for climate studies. We present an overview over studies performed at the Leibniz Institute for Tropospheric Research aiming at constraining the properties of mineral dust and soot aerosol in the global aerosol model ECHAM6-HAM2 based on different regional studies. An example is the impact of different sources for dust transported to central Asia, which is influenced, by far-range transport of dust from Arabia and the Sahara together with dust from local sources. Dust types from these different source regions were investigated in the context of the CADEX project and are expected to have different optical properties. For Saharan dust, satellite retrievals from MSG SEVIRI are used to constrain Saharan dust sources and optical properties. In the Arctic region, on one hand dust aerosol is simulated in the framework of the PalMod project. On the other hand aerosol measurements that will be taken during the DFG-funded (AC)3 field campaigns will be used to evaluate the simulated transport pathways of soot aerosol from European, North American and Asian sources, as well as the parameterization of soot ageing processes in ECHAM6-HAM2. Ultimately, results from these studies will improve the representation of aerosol absorption in the global model.

Application of the solid phase C1q and Raji cell radioimmune assays for the detection of circulating immune complexes in glomerulonephritis.

PubMed Central

Tung, K S; Woodroffe, A J; Ahlin, T D; Williams, R C; Wilson, C B

1978-01-01

The C1q solid phase and Raji cell radioimmune assays were used to determine the frequency of detectable circulating immune complexes in patients with glomerulonephritis. In this study, 46% of 56 patients with glomerulonephritis had evidence of circulating immune complexes. More important, circulating immune complexes were associated with some, but not other, types of glomerulonephritis. Thus, immune complexes were detected in lupus glomerulonephritis (9/9 patients), rapidly progressive glomerulonephritis (5/6 patients), and acute nephritis (5/6 patients), but not in IgA-IgG glomerulonephritis (0/7 patients), or membranous glomerulonephritis (0/8 patients). The Raji cell radioimmune assay and the C1q solid phase radioimmune assay showed concordance of 79% in the detection of circulating immune complexes. Serial determinations, in general, showed either persistence of a negative or positive result of conversion of positive to negative. PMID:659639

Evaluation of Multi-Model Ensemble System for Seasonal and Monthly Prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Q.; Van den Dool, H. M.

2013-12-01

Since August 2011, the realtime seasonal forecasts of U.S. National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) have been made on 8th of each month by NCEP Climate Prediction Center (CPC). During the first year, the participating models were NCEP/CFSv1&2, GFDL/CM2.2, NCAR/U.Miami/COLA/CCSM3, NASA/GEOS5, IRI/ ECHAM-a & ECHAM-f for the realtime NMME forecast. The Canadian Meteorological Center CanCM3 and CM4 replaced the CFSv1 and IRI's models in the second year. The NMME team at CPC collects three variables, including precipitation, 2-meter temperature and sea surface temperature from each modeling center on a 1x1 global grid, removes systematic errors, makes the grand ensemble mean with equal weight for each model and constructs a probability forecast with equal weight for each member. The team then provides the NMME forecast to the operational CPC forecaster responsible for the seasonal and monthly outlook each month. Verification of the seasonal and monthly prediction from NMME is conducted by calculating the anomaly correlation (AC) from the 30-year hindcasts (1982-2011) of individual model and NMME ensemble. The motivation of this study is to provide skill benchmarks for future improvements of the NMME seasonal and monthly prediction system. The experimental (Phase I) stage of the project already supplies routine guidance to users of the NMME forecasts.

Impact of climate change on ozone-related mortality and morbidity in Europe.

PubMed

Orru, Hans; Andersson, Camilla; Ebi, Kristie L; Langner, Joakim; Aström, Christofer; Forsberg, Bertil

2013-02-01

Ozone is a highly oxidative pollutant formed from precursors in the presence of sunlight, associated with respiratory morbidity and mortality. All else being equal, concentrations of ground-level ozone are expected to increase due to climate change. Ozone-related health impacts under a changing climate are projected using emission scenarios, models and epidemiological data. European ozone concentrations are modelled with the model of atmospheric transport and chemistry (MATCH)-RCA3 (50×50 km). Projections from two climate models, ECHAM4 and HadCM3, are applied under greenhouse gas emission scenarios A2 and A1B, respectively. We applied a European-wide exposure-response function to gridded population data and country-specific baseline mortality and morbidity. Comparing the current situation (1990-2009) with the baseline period (1961-1990), the largest increase in ozone-associated mortality and morbidity due to climate change (4-5%) have occurred in Belgium, Ireland, the Netherlands and the UK. Comparing the baseline period and the future periods (2021-2050 and 2041-2060), much larger increases in ozone-related mortality and morbidity are projected for Belgium, France, Spain and Portugal, with the impact being stronger using the climate projection from ECHAM4 (A2). However, in Nordic and Baltic countries the same magnitude of decrease is projected. The current study suggests that projected effects of climate change on ozone concentrations could differentially influence mortality and morbidity across Europe.

Climate change and watershed mercury export: a multiple projection and model analysis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Golden, Heather E.; Knightes, Christopher D.; Conrads, Paul; Feaster, Toby D.; Davis, Gary M.; Benedict, Stephen T.; Bradley, Paul M.

2013-01-01

Future shifts in climatic conditions may impact watershed mercury (Hg) dynamics and transport. An ensemble of watershed models was applied in the present study to simulate and evaluate the responses of hydrological and total Hg (THg) fluxes from the landscape to the watershed outlet and in-stream THg concentrations to contrasting climate change projections for a watershed in the southeastern coastal plain of the United States. Simulations were conducted under stationary atmospheric deposition and land cover conditions to explicitly evaluate the effect of projected precipitation and temperature on watershed Hg export (i.e., the flux of Hg at the watershed outlet). Based on downscaled inputs from 2 global circulation models that capture extremes of projected wet (Community Climate System Model, Ver 3 [CCSM3]) and dry (ECHAM4/HOPE-G [ECHO]) conditions for this region, watershed model simulation results suggest a decrease of approximately 19% in ensemble-averaged mean annual watershed THg fluxes using the ECHO climate-change model and an increase of approximately 5% in THg fluxes with the CCSM3 model. Ensemble-averaged mean annual ECHO in-stream THg concentrations increased 20%, while those of CCSM3 decreased by 9% between the baseline and projected simulation periods. Watershed model simulation results using both climate change models suggest that monthly watershed THg fluxes increase during the summer, when projected flow is higher than baseline conditions. The present study's multiple watershed model approach underscores the uncertainty associated with climate change response projections and their use in climate change management decisions. Thus, single-model predictions can be misleading, particularly in developmental stages of watershed Hg modeling.

Projected Changes on the Global Surface Wave Drift Climate towards the END of the Twenty-First Century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carrasco, Ana; Semedo, Alvaro; Behrens, Arno; Weisse, Ralf; Breivik, Øyvind; Saetra, Øyvind; Håkon Christensen, Kai

2016-04-01

The global wave-induced current (the Stokes Drift - SD) is an important feature of the ocean surface, with mean values close to 10 cm/s along the extra-tropical storm tracks in both hemispheres. Besides the horizontal displacement of large volumes of water the SD also plays an important role in the ocean mix-layer turbulence structure, particularly in stormy or high wind speed areas. The role of the wave-induced currents in the ocean mix-layer and in the sea surface temperature (SST) is currently a hot topic of air-sea interaction research, from forecast to climate ranges. The SD is mostly driven by wind sea waves and highly sensitive to changes in the overlaying wind speed and direction. The impact of climate change in the global wave-induced current climate will be presented. The wave model WAM has been forced by the global climate model (GCM) ECHAM5 wind speed (at 10 m height) and ice, for present-day and potential future climate conditions towards the end of the end of the twenty-first century, represented by the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) CMIP3 (Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project phase 3) A1B greenhouse gas emission scenario (usually referred to as a ''medium-high emissions'' scenario). Several wave parameters were stored as output in the WAM model simulations, including the wave spectra. The 6 hourly and 0.5°×0.5°, temporal and space resolution, wave spectra were used to compute the SD global climate of two 32-yr periods, representative of the end of the twentieth (1959-1990) and twenty-first (1969-2100) centuries. Comparisons of the present climate run with the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) ERA-40 reanalysis are used to assess the capability of the WAM-ECHAM5 runs to produce realistic SD results. This study is part of the WRCP-JCOMM COWCLIP (Coordinated Ocean Wave Climate Project) effort.

Recent intensification of the Walker Circulation and the role of natural sea surface temperature variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, X.; Allen, R.

2017-12-01

In a warming world, the tropical atmospheric overturning circulation-including the Walker Circulation-is expected to weaken due to thermodynamic constraints. Tropical precipitation increases at a slower rate than water vapor-which increases according to Clausius Clapeyron scaling, assuming constant relative humidity-so the tropical overturning circulation slows down. This is supported by both observations and model simulations, which show a slowdown of the Walker Circulation over the 20th century. Model projections suggest a further weakening of the Walker Circulation in the 21st century. However, over the last several decades (1979-2014), multiple observations reveal a robust strengthening of the Walker Circulation. Although coupled CMIP5 simulations are unable to reproduce this strengthening, AMIP simulations-which feature the observed evolution of SSTs-are generally able to reproduce it. Assuming the ensemble mean sea surface temperatures (SSTs) from historical CMIP5 simulations accurately represent the externally forced SST response, the observed SSTs can be decomposed into a forced and an unforced component. CAM5 AMIP-type simulations driven by the unforced component of observed SSTs reproduce the observed strengthening of the Walker Circulation. Corresponding simulations driven by the forced component of observed SSTs yield a weaker Walker Circulation. These results are consistent with the zonal tropical SST gradient and the Bjerknes feedback. The unforced component of SSTs yield an increased SST gradient over tropical Pacific (a La Nina like pattern) and strengthening of the tropical trade winds, which constitute the lower branch of the Walker Circulation. The forced component of SSTs yields a zonally uniform tropical Pacific SST warming and a marginal weakening of the Walker Circulation. Our results suggest significant modulation of the tropical Walker Circulation by natural SST variability over the last several decades.

Technical Note: On the use of nudging for aerosol–climate model intercomparison studies

DOE PAGES

Zhang, K.; Wan, H.; Liu, X.; ...

2014-08-26

Nudging as an assimilation technique has seen increased use in recent years in the development and evaluation of climate models. Constraining the simulated wind and temperature fields using global weather reanalysis facilitates more straightforward comparison between simulation and observation, and reduces uncertainties associated with natural variabilities of the large-scale circulation. On the other hand, the forcing introduced by nudging can be strong enough to change the basic characteristics of the model climate. In the paper we show that for the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5), due to the systematic temperature bias in the standard model and the sensitivity ofmore » simulated ice formation to anthropogenic aerosol concentration, nudging towards reanalysis results in substantial reductions in the ice cloud amount and the impact of anthropogenic aerosols on long-wave cloud forcing. In order to reduce discrepancies between the nudged and unconstrained simulations, and meanwhile take the advantages of nudging, two alternative experimentation methods are evaluated. The first one constrains only the horizontal winds. The second method nudges both winds and temperature, but replaces the long-term climatology of the reanalysis by that of the model. Results show that both methods lead to substantially improved agreement with the free-running model in terms of the top-of-atmosphere radiation budget and cloud ice amount. The wind-only nudging is more convenient to apply, and provides higher correlations of the wind fields, geopotential height and specific humidity between simulation and reanalysis. Results from both CAM5 and a second aerosol–climate model ECHAM6-HAM2 also indicate that compared to the wind-and-temperature nudging, constraining only winds leads to better agreement with the free-running model in terms of the estimated shortwave cloud forcing and the simulated convective activities. This suggests nudging the horizontal winds but not temperature is a good strategy for the investigation of aerosol indirect effects since it provides well-constrained meteorology without strongly perturbing the model's mean climate.« less

Technical Note: On the use of nudging for aerosol-climate model intercomparison studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, K.; Wan, H.; Liu, X.; Ghan, S. J.; Kooperman, G. J.; Ma, P.-L.; Rasch, P. J.; Neubauer, D.; Lohmann, U.

2014-08-01

Nudging as an assimilation technique has seen increased use in recent years in the development and evaluation of climate models. Constraining the simulated wind and temperature fields using global weather reanalysis facilitates more straightforward comparison between simulation and observation, and reduces uncertainties associated with natural variabilities of the large-scale circulation. On the other hand, the forcing introduced by nudging can be strong enough to change the basic characteristics of the model climate. In the paper we show that for the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5), due to the systematic temperature bias in the standard model and the sensitivity of simulated ice formation to anthropogenic aerosol concentration, nudging towards reanalysis results in substantial reductions in the ice cloud amount and the impact of anthropogenic aerosols on long-wave cloud forcing. In order to reduce discrepancies between the nudged and unconstrained simulations, and meanwhile take the advantages of nudging, two alternative experimentation methods are evaluated. The first one constrains only the horizontal winds. The second method nudges both winds and temperature, but replaces the long-term climatology of the reanalysis by that of the model. Results show that both methods lead to substantially improved agreement with the free-running model in terms of the top-of-atmosphere radiation budget and cloud ice amount. The wind-only nudging is more convenient to apply, and provides higher correlations of the wind fields, geopotential height and specific humidity between simulation and reanalysis. Results from both CAM5 and a second aerosol-climate model ECHAM6-HAM2 also indicate that compared to the wind-and-temperature nudging, constraining only winds leads to better agreement with the free-running model in terms of the estimated shortwave cloud forcing and the simulated convective activities. This suggests nudging the horizontal winds but not temperature is a good strategy for the investigation of aerosol indirect effects since it provides well-constrained meteorology without strongly perturbing the model's mean climate.

In vitro nematicidal effect of Chenopodium ambrosioides and Castela tortuosa n-hexane extracts against Haemonchus contortus (Nematoda) and their anthelmintic effect in gerbils.

PubMed

Zamilpa, A; García-Alanís, C; López-Arellano, M E; Hernández-Velázquez, V M; Valladares-Cisneros, M G; Salinas-Sánchez, D O; Mendoza-de Gives, P

2018-05-06

The in vitro nematicidal effect of Chenopodium ambrosioides and Castela tortuosa n-hexane extracts (E-Cham and E-Cato, respectively) on Haemonchus contortus infective larvae (L3) and the anthelmintic effect of these extracts against the pre-adult stage of the parasite in gerbils were evaluated using both individual and combined extracts. The in vitro confrontation between larvae and extracts was performed in 24-well micro-titration plates. The results were considered 24 and 72 h post confrontation. The in vivo nematicidal effect was examined using gerbils as a study model. The extracts from the two assessed plants were obtained through maceration using n-hexane as an organic agent. Gerbils artificially infected with H. contortus L3 were treated intraperitoneally with the corresponding extract either individually or in combination. The results showed that the highest individual lethal in vitro effect (96.3%) was obtained with the E-Cham extract at 72 h post confrontation at 40 mg/ml, followed by E-Cato (78.9%) at 20 mg/ml after 72 h. The highest combined effect (98.7%) was obtained after 72 h at 40 mg/ml. The in vivo assay showed that the individual administration of the E-Cato and E-Cham extracts reduced the parasitic burden in gerbils by 27.1% and 45.8%, respectively. Furthermore, the anthelmintic efficacy increased to 57.3% when both extracts were administered in combination. The results of the present study show an important combined nematicidal effect of the two plant extracts assessed against L3 in gerbils.

The added value of dynamical downscaling in a climate change scenario simulation:A case study for European Alps and East Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Im, Eun-Soon; Coppola, Erika; Giorgi, Filippo

2010-05-01

Since anthropogenic climate change is a rather important factor for the future human life all over the planet and its effects are not globally uniform, climate information at regional or local scales become more and more important for an accurate assessment of the potential impact of climate change on societies and ecosystems. High resolution information with suitably fine-scale for resolving complex geographical features could be a critical factor for successful linkage between climate models and impact assessment studies. However, scale mismatch between them still remains major problem. One method for overcoming the resolution limitations of global climate models and for adding regional details to coarse-grid global projections is to use dynamical downscaling by means of a regional climate model. In this study, the ECHAM5/MPI-OM (1.875 degree) A1B scenario simulation has been dynamically downscaled by using two different approaches within the framework of RegCM3 modeling system. First, a mosaic-type parameterization of subgrid-scale topography and land use (Sub-BATS) is applied over the European Alpine region. The Sub-BATS system is composed of 15 km coarse-grid cell and 3 km sub-grid cell. Second, we developed the RegCM3 one-way double-nested system, with the mother domain encompassing the eastern regions of Asia at 60 km grid spacing and the nested domain covering the Korean Peninsula at 20 km grid spacing. By comparing the regional climate model output and the driving global model ECHAM5/MPI-OM output, it is possible to estimate the added value of physically-based dynamical downscaling when for example impact studies at hydrological scale are performed.

Climate change and Mediterranean storm tracks: present and future climate simulations of a high-resolution Mediterranean model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hatzaki, M.; Flocas, H. A.; Simmonds, I.; Keay, K.; Giannakopoulos, C.; Brikolas, V.; Kouroutzoglou, J.

2010-09-01

A number of studies suggest that cyclone activity over both hemispheres has changed over the second half of the 20th century. General features include a reduction in the number of cyclones but with an increase in the number of more intense cyclones; as well as a poleward shift in the tracks. Moreover, these features are expected to be projected in the future under global warming conditions. The assessment of the future changes of the cyclonic activity as imposed by global warming conditions is very important since these cyclones can be associated with extreme precipitation conditions, severe storms and floods. This is more important for the Mediterranean that has been found to be more vulnerable to climate change. The main objective of the current study is to better understand and assess future changes in the main characteristics of cyclonic tracks in the Mediterranean. The climatology of the cyclonic tracks includes temporal and spatial variations of frequency, and dynamic and kinematic parameters, such as intensity, size, propagation velocity, as well as trend analysis. For this purpose, the ENEA high resolution model is employed, based on PROTHEUS system composed of the RegCM atmospheric regional model and the MITgcm ocean model, coupled through the OASIS3 flux coupler. These model data became available through the EU Project CIRCE which aims to perform, for the first time, climate change projections with a realistic representation of the Mediterranean Sea. Two experiments are employed; a) the EH5OM_20C3M present climate simulation, where the lateral boundary conditions for the atmosphere (1951-2000) are taken from the ECHAM5-MPIOM 20c3m global simulation (run3) included in the IPCC-AR4, and b) the EH5OM_A1B scenario simulation, where the IPCC-AR4 ECHAM5-MPIOM SRESA1B global simulation (run3) has been used for the period 2001-2050. The identification and tracking of cyclones is performed with the aid of the Melbourne University algorithm (MS algorithm), according to the Lagrangian perspective. MS algorithm characterizes a cyclone only if a vorticity maximum could be connected with a local pressure minimum. This approach is considered to be crucial, since open lows are also incorporated into the storm life-cycle, preventing possible inappropriate time series breaks, if a temporary weakening to an open-low state occurs. According to the results, a decrease of the storm number and a tendency towards deeper cyclones is expected in the future, in general agreement with the results of previous studies. However, new findings reveal with respect to the dynamic/kinematic characteristics of the cyclonic tracks. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS: M. Hatzaki would like to thank the Greek State Scholarships Foundation for financial support through the program of postdoctoral research. The support of EU-FP6 project CIRCE Integrated Project-Climate Change and Impact Research: the Mediterranean Environment (http://www.circeproject.eu) for climate model data provision is also greatly acknowledged.

Effects of mixing on resolved and unresolved scales on stratospheric age of air

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dietmüller, Simone; Garny, Hella; Plöger, Felix; Jöckel, Patrick; Cai, Duy

2017-06-01

Mean age of air (AoA) is a widely used metric to describe the transport along the Brewer-Dobson circulation. We seek to untangle the effects of different processes on the simulation of AoA, using the chemistry-climate model EMAC (ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry) and the Chemical Lagrangian Model of the Stratosphere (CLaMS). Here, the effects of residual transport and two-way mixing on AoA are calculated. To do so, we calculate the residual circulation transit time (RCTT). The difference of AoA and RCTT is defined as aging by mixing. However, as diffusion is also included in this difference, we further use a method to directly calculate aging by mixing on resolved scales. Comparing these two methods of calculating aging by mixing allows for separating the effect of unresolved aging by mixing (which we term aging by diffusion in the following) in EMAC and CLaMS. We find that diffusion impacts AoA by making air older, but its contribution plays a minor role (order of 10 %) in all simulations. However, due to the different advection schemes of the two models, aging by diffusion has a larger effect on AoA and mixing efficiency in EMAC, compared to CLaMS. Regarding the trends in AoA, in CLaMS the AoA trend is negative throughout the stratosphere except in the Northern Hemisphere middle stratosphere, consistent with observations. This slight positive trend is neither reproduced in a free-running nor in a nudged simulation with EMAC - in both simulations the AoA trend is negative throughout the stratosphere. Trends in AoA are mainly driven by the contributions of RCTT and aging by mixing, whereas the contribution of aging by diffusion plays a minor role.

Trend estimates of AERONET-observed and model-simulated AOT percentiles between 1993 and 2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoon, Jongmin; Pozzer, Andrea; Chang, Dong Yeong; Lelieveld, Jos

2016-04-01

Recent Aerosol Optical thickness (AOT) trend studies used monthly or annual arithmetic means that discard details of the generally right-skewed AOT distributions. Potentially, such results can be biased by extreme values (including outliers). This study additionally uses percentiles (i.e., the lowest 5%, 25%, 50%, 75% and 95% of the monthly cumulative distributions fitted to Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET)-observed and ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC)-model simulated AOTs) that are less affected by outliers caused by measurement error, cloud contamination and occasional extreme aerosol events. Since the limited statistical representativeness of monthly percentiles and means can lead to bias, this study adopts the number of observations as a weighting factor, which improves the statistical robustness of trend estimates. By analyzing the aerosol composition of AERONET-observed and EMAC-simulated AOTs in selected regions of interest, we distinguish the dominant aerosol types and investigate the causes of regional AOT trends. The simulated and observed trends are generally consistent with a high correlation coefficient (R = 0.89) and small bias (slope±2σ = 0.75 ± 0.19). A significant decrease in EMAC-decomposed AOTs by water-soluble compounds and black carbon is found over the USA and the EU due to environmental regulation. In particular, a clear reversal in the AERONET AOT trend percentiles is found over the USA, probably related to the AOT diurnal cycle and the frequency of wildfires.

Documentation of a ground hydrology parameterization for use in the GISS atmospheric general circulation model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lin, J. D.; Aleano, J.; Bock, P.

1978-01-01

The moisture transport processes related to the earth's surface relevant to the ground circulation model GCM are presented. The GHM parametrizations considered are: (1) ground wetness and soil parameters; (2) precipitation; (3) evapotranspiration; (4) surface storage of snow and ice; and (5) runout. The computational aspects of the GHM using computer programs and flow charts are described.

Circulating microRNA miR-21-5p, miR-150-5p and miR-30e-5p correlate with clinical status in late onset myasthenia gravis.

PubMed

Sabre, Liis; Maddison, Paul; Sadalage, Girija; Ambrose, Philip Alexander; Punga, Anna Rostedt

2018-05-08

There are no biomarkers for late onset myasthenia gravis (LOMG; onset >50 years). We evaluated circulating microRNA in a discovery cohort of 4 LOMG patients and 4 healthy controls and in a prospective diagnostic validation cohort of 73 LOMG patients (48 male) with longitudinal follow-up samples. In immunosuppression naïve patients, levels of miRNAs miR-150-5p, miR-21-5p and miR-30e-5p decreased in parallel with clinical improvement after initiation of immunosuppression and their levels positively correlated with the clinical MG composite score. Levels of miR-150-5p and miR-21-5p were lower in patients with ocular compared to generalized LOMG. Circulating miR-150-5p, miR-21-5p and miR-30e-5p correlate with the clinical course in LOMG. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The 0.125 degree finite-volume General Circulation Model on the NASA Columbia Supercomputer: Preliminary Simulations of Mesoscale Vortices

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shen, B.-W.; Atlas, R.; Chern, J.-D.; Reale, O.; Lin, S.-J.; Lee, T.; Chang, J.

2005-01-01

The NASA Columbia supercomputer was ranked second on the TOP500 List in November, 2004. Such a quantum jump in computing power provides unprecedented opportunities to conduct ultra-high resolution simulations with the finite-volume General Circulation Model (fvGCM). During 2004, the model was run in realtime experimentally at 0.25 degree resolution producing remarkable hurricane forecasts [Atlas et al., 2005]. In 2005, the horizontal resolution was further doubled, which makes the fvGCM comparable to the first mesoscale resolving General Circulation Model at the Earth Simulator Center [Ohfuchi et al., 2004]. Nine 5-day 0.125 degree simulations of three hurricanes in 2004 are presented first for model validation. Then it is shown how the model can simulate the formation of the Catalina eddies and Hawaiian lee vortices, which are generated by the interaction of the synoptic-scale flow with surface forcing, and have never been reproduced in a GCM before.)

Regional climates in the GISS global circulation model - Synoptic-scale circulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hewitson, B.; Crane, R. G.

1992-01-01

A major weakness of current general circulation models (GCMs) is their perceived inability to predict reliably the regional consequences of a global-scale change, and it is these regional-scale predictions that are necessary for studies of human-environmental response. For large areas of the extratropics, the local climate is controlled by the synoptic-scale atmospheric circulation, and it is the purpose of this paper to evaluate the synoptic-scale circulation of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) GCM. A methodology for validating the daily synoptic circulation using Principal Component Analysis is described, and the methodology is then applied to the GCM simulation of sea level pressure over the continental United States (excluding Alaska). The analysis demonstrates that the GISS 4 x 5 deg GCM Model II effectively simulates the synoptic-scale atmospheric circulation over the United States. The modes of variance describing the atmospheric circulation of the model are comparable to those found in the observed data, and these modes explain similar amounts of variance in their respective datasets. The temporal behavior of these circulation modes in the synoptic time frame are also comparable.

Effect of anthropogenic aerosol emissions on precipitation in warm conveyor belts in the western North Pacific in winter - a model study with ECHAM6-HAM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Joos, Hanna; Madonna, Erica; Witlox, Kasja; Ferrachat, Sylvaine; Wernli, Heini; Lohmann, Ulrike

2017-05-01

While there is a clear impact of aerosol particles on the radiation balance, whether and how aerosol particles influence precipitation is controversial. Here we use the ECHAM6-HAM global climate model coupled to an aerosol module to analyse whether an impact of anthropogenic aerosol particles on the timing and amount of precipitation can be detected in North Pacific warm conveyor belts. Warm conveyor belts are the strongest precipitation-producing airstreams in extratropical cyclones and are identified here with a Lagrangian technique, i.e. by objectively identifying the most strongly ascending trajectories in North Pacific cyclones. These conveyor belts have been identified separately in 10-year ECHAM6-HAM simulations with present-day and pre-industrial aerosol conditions. Then, the evolution of aerosols and cloud properties has been analysed in detail along the identified warm conveyor belt trajectories. The results show that, under present-day conditions, some warm conveyor belt trajectories are strongly polluted (i.e. high concentrations of black carbon and sulfur dioxide) due to horizontal transport from eastern Asia to the oceanic region where warm conveyor belts start their ascent. In these polluted trajectories a weak delay and reduction of precipitation formation occurs compared to clean warm conveyor belt trajectories. However, all warm conveyor belts consist of both polluted and clean trajectories at the time they start their ascent, and the typically more abundant clean trajectories strongly reduce the aerosol impact from the polluted trajectories. The main conclusion then is that the overall amount of precipitation is comparable in pre-industrial conditions, when all warm conveyor belt trajectories are clean, and in present-day conditions, when warm conveyor belts consist of a mixture of clean and polluted trajectories.

Circulation in the South China Sea during summer 2000 as obtained from observations and a generalized topography-following ocean model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Huiqun; Yuan, Yaochu; Guan, Weibing; Lou, Ruyun; Wang, Kangshan

2004-07-01

On the basis of the recently obtained hydrographic data in the South China Sea, the improved Princeton Ocean Model with a generalized topography-following coordinate system is used to study the circulation in the region during summer 2000. Several sensitivity experiments are carried out to achieve reasonable model parameters for the South China Sea (SCS). It is shown from the resting stratification experiments that the generalized topography-following coordinate scheme is better than the standard sigma grid scheme for reducing the pressure gradient errors. The combination of sea surface height anomaly derived from TOPEX/Poseidon and numerical results with both diagnostic and semidiagnostic simulations provides a consistent circulation pattern for the SCS in August, and the main circulation features can be summarized as follows: (1) There is a notable anticyclonic warm eddy southeast of Vietnam with a horizontal scale of ˜300 km, and there is a cyclonic cold eddy. The simultaneous existence of these cold and warm eddies is one of the important circulation characteristics in the SCS during summer 2000. (2) A secondary cold eddy is found east of Vietnam. (3) The northwestern part of the SCS is dominated by an anticyclonic circulation system. (4) There is also a secondary warm eddy southwest off the Luzon Island. (5) A cyclonic eddy is found west off the Borneo Island. (6) A western intensification phenomenon obviously occurs in the SCS. The dynamical mechanisms of the above-mentioned circulation pattern in the SCS are the interaction between the wind stress and bottom topography and the joint effect of baroclinicity and relief.

Sensitivity of amplitude-phase characteristics of the surface air temperature annual cycle to variations in annual mean temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eliseev, A. V.; Mokhov, I. I.; Guseva, M. S.

2006-05-01

The ERA40 and NCEP/NCAR data over 1958 1998 were used to estimate the sensitivity of amplitude-phase characteristics (APCs) of the annual cycle (AC) of the surface air temperature (SAT) T s. The results were compared with outputs of the ECHAM4/OPYC3, HadCM3, and INM RAS general circulation models and the IAP RAS climate model of intermediate complexity, which were run with variations in greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosol specified over 1860 2100. The analysis was performed in terms of the linear regression coefficients b of SAT AC APCs on the local annual mean temperature and in terms of the sensitivity characteristic D = br 2, which takes into account not only the linear regression coefficient but also its statistical significance (via the correlation coefficient r). The reanalysis data were used to reveal the features of the tendencies of change in the SAT AC APCs in various regions, including areas near the snow-ice boundary, storm-track ocean regions, large desert areas, and the tropical Pacific. These results agree with earlier observations. The model computations are in fairly good agreement with the reanalysis data in regions of statistically significant variations in SAT AC APCs. The differences between individual models and the reanalysis data can be explained, in particular, in terms of the features of the sea-ice schemes used in the models. Over the land in the middle and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, the absolute values of D for the fall phase time and the interval of exceeding exhibit a positive intermodel correlation with the absolute value of D for the annual-harmonic amplitude. Over the ocean, the models reproducing larger (in modulus) sensitivity parameters of the SAT annual-harmonic amplitude are generally characterized by larger (in modulus) negative sensitivity values of the semiannual-harmonic amplitude T s, 2, especially at latitudes characteristic of the sea-ice boundary. In contrast to the averaged fields of AC APCs and their interannual standard deviations, the sensitivity parameters of the SAT AC APCs on a regional scale vary noticeably for various types of anthropogenic forcing.

Analysis of a general circulation model product. I - Frontal systems in the Brazil/Malvinas and Kuroshio/Oyashio regions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Garzoli, Silvia L.; Garraffo, Zulema; Podesta, Guillermo; Brown, Otis

1992-01-01

The general circulation model (GCM) of Semtner and Chervin (1992) is tested by comparing the fields produced by this model with available observations in two western boundary current regions, the Brazil/Malvinas and the Kuroshio/Oyashio confluences. The two sets of data used are the sea surface temperature from satellite observations and the temperature field product from the GCM at levels 1 (12.5 m), 2 (37.5 m), and 6 (160 m). It is shown that the model reproduces intense thermal fronts at the sea surface and in the upper layers (where they are induced by the internal dynamics of the model). The location of the fronts are reproduced in the model within 4 to 5 deg, compared with observations. However, the variability of these fronts was found to be less pronounced in the model than in the observations.

Risk factors of young ischemic stroke in Qatar.

PubMed

Khan, Fahmi Yousef

2007-11-01

There is limited information about risk factors of young ischemic stroke in Qatar. The aim of this study was to describe the risk factors and subtypes of young ischemic stroke among Qatari and non-Qatari residents. Hospital based prospective observational study involving all young adults (15-45 years of age) admitted to Hamad General Hospital with first-ever ischemic stroke from September 2004 to September 2005. A stroke was defined according to WHO criteria. Stroke was confirmed in 40 (32 males and 8 females). Their ages ranged from 17 to 44 years (mean 37.1+/-13.27). Thirty (75%) of the patients were non-Qatari. The most common risk factors were hypertension 16 (40%), diabetes mellitus 13 (32.5%), hypercholesterolemia 11 (27.5%), smoking 11 (27.5%), and alcohol intake 9 (22.5%). Regarding stroke subtypes, lacunar stroke syndrome (LACS) was diagnosed in 17 (42.5%), total anterior circulation stroke syndrome (TACS) in 16 (40%), partial anterior circulation stroke syndrome (PACS) in 5 (12.5%) and posterior circulation stroke syndrome (POCS) in 2 (5%). Partial anterior circulation stroke syndrome (PACS) was observed with a higher frequency in Qatari patients compared with non-Qataris (p=0.009), whereas total anterior circulation stroke syndrome (TACS) was observed more in non-Qatari than in Qatari patients (p=0.03). Average hospital stay was 18 days. In-hospital mortality was 2.5%. The risk factors of ischemic stroke in young adults are numerous. The most common were hypertension, diabetes mellitus, hypercholesterolemia, smoking and alcohol intake. Only one Indonesian male patient with POCS died in the hospital.

Understanding the Asian summer monsoon response to greenhouse warming: the relative roles of direct radiative forcing and sea surface temperature change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Xiaoqiong; Ting, Mingfang

2017-10-01

Future hydroclimate projections from state-of-the-art climate models show large uncertainty and model spread, particularly in the tropics and over the monsoon regions. The precipitation and circulation responses to rising greenhouse gases involve a fast component associated with direct radiative forcing and a slow component associated with sea surface temperature (SST) warming; the relative importance of the two may contribute to model discrepancies. In this study, regional hydroclimate responses to greenhouse warming are assessed using output from coupled general circulation models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project-Phase 5 (CMIP5) and idealized atmospheric general circulation model experiments from the Atmosphere Model Intercomparison Project. The thermodynamic and dynamic mechanisms causing the rainfall changes are examined using moisture budget analysis. Results show that direct radiative forcing and SST change exert significantly different responses both over land and ocean. For most part of the Asian monsoon region, the summertime rainfall changes are dominated by the direct CO2 radiative effect through enhanced monsoon circulation. The response to SST warming shows a larger model spread compared to direct radiative forcing, possibly due to the cancellation between the thermodynamical and dynamical components. While the thermodynamical response of the Asian monsoon is robust across the models, there is a lack of consensus for the dynamical response among the models and weak multi-model mean responses in the CMIP5 ensemble, which may be related to the multiple physical processes evolving on different time scales.

Climate change and watershed mercury export: a multiple projection and model analysis.

PubMed

Golden, Heather E; Knightes, Christopher D; Conrads, Paul A; Feaster, Toby D; Davis, Gary M; Benedict, Stephen T; Bradley, Paul M

2013-09-01

Future shifts in climatic conditions may impact watershed mercury (Hg) dynamics and transport. An ensemble of watershed models was applied in the present study to simulate and evaluate the responses of hydrological and total Hg (THg) fluxes from the landscape to the watershed outlet and in-stream THg concentrations to contrasting climate change projections for a watershed in the southeastern coastal plain of the United States. Simulations were conducted under stationary atmospheric deposition and land cover conditions to explicitly evaluate the effect of projected precipitation and temperature on watershed Hg export (i.e., the flux of Hg at the watershed outlet). Based on downscaled inputs from 2 global circulation models that capture extremes of projected wet (Community Climate System Model, Ver 3 [CCSM3]) and dry (ECHAM4/HOPE-G [ECHO]) conditions for this region, watershed model simulation results suggest a decrease of approximately 19% in ensemble-averaged mean annual watershed THg fluxes using the ECHO climate-change model and an increase of approximately 5% in THg fluxes with the CCSM3 model. Ensemble-averaged mean annual ECHO in-stream THg concentrations increased 20%, while those of CCSM3 decreased by 9% between the baseline and projected simulation periods. Watershed model simulation results using both climate change models suggest that monthly watershed THg fluxes increase during the summer, when projected flow is higher than baseline conditions. The present study's multiple watershed model approach underscores the uncertainty associated with climate change response projections and their use in climate change management decisions. Thus, single-model predictions can be misleading, particularly in developmental stages of watershed Hg modeling. Copyright © 2013 SETAC.

Uncertainty associated with convective wet removal of entrained aerosols in a global climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Croft, B.; Pierce, J. R.; Martin, R. V.; Hoose, C.; Lohmann, U.

2012-11-01

The uncertainties associated with the wet removal of aerosols entrained above convective cloud bases are investigated in a global aerosol-climate model (ECHAM5-HAM) under a set of limiting assumptions for the wet removal of the entrained aerosols. The limiting assumptions for the wet removal of entrained aerosols are negligible scavenging and vigorous scavenging (either through activation, with size-dependent impaction scavenging, or with the prescribed fractions of the standard model). To facilitate this process-based study, an explicit representation of cloud-droplet-borne and ice-crystal-borne aerosol mass and number, for the purpose of wet removal, is introduced into the ECHAM5-HAM model. This replaces and is compared with the prescribed cloud-droplet-borne and ice-crystal-borne aerosol fraction scavenging scheme of the standard model. A 20% to 35% uncertainty in simulated global, annual mean aerosol mass burdens and optical depth (AOD) is attributed to different assumptions for the wet removal of aerosols entrained above convective cloud bases. Assumptions about the removal of aerosols entrained above convective cloud bases control modeled upper tropospheric aerosol concentrations by as much as one order of magnitude. Simulated aerosols entrained above convective cloud bases contribute 20% to 50% of modeled global, annual mean aerosol mass convective wet deposition (about 5% to 10% of the total dry and wet deposition), depending on the aerosol species, when including wet scavenging of those entrained aerosols (either by activation, size-dependent impaction, or with the prescribed fraction scheme). Among the simulations, the prescribed fraction and size-dependent impaction schemes yield the largest global, annual mean aerosol mass convective wet deposition (by about two-fold). However, the prescribed fraction scheme has more vigorous convective mixed-phase wet removal (by two to five-fold relative to the size-dependent impaction scheme) since nearly all entrained accumulation and coarse mode aerosols are assumed to be cloud-droplet borne or ice-crystal borne, and evaporation due to the Bergeron-Findeisen process is neglected. The simulated convective wet scavenging of entrained accumulation and coarse mode aerosols has feedbacks on new particle formation and the number of Aitken mode aerosols, which control stratiform and convective cloud droplet number concentrations and yield precipitation changes in the ECHAM5-HAM model. However, the geographic distribution of aerosol annual mean convective wet deposition change in the model is driven by changes to the assumptions regarding the scavenging of aerosols entrained above cloud bases rather than by precipitation changes, except for sea salt deposition in the tropics. Uncertainty in the seasonal, regional cycles of AOD due to assumptions about entrained aerosol wet scavenging is similar in magnitude to the estimated error in the AOD retrievals. The uncertainty in aerosol concentrations, burdens, and AOD attributed to different assumptions for the wet scavenging of aerosols entrained above convective cloud bases in a global model motivates the ongoing need to better understand and model the activation and impaction processes that aerosols undergo after entrainment into convective updrafts.

Direct Radiative Effect of Aerosols Based on PARASOL and OMI Satellite Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lacagnina, Carlo; Hasekamp, Otto P.; Torres, Omar

2017-01-01

Accurate portrayal of the aerosol characteristics is crucial to determine aerosol contribution to the Earth's radiation budget. We employ novel satellite retrievals to make a new measurement-based estimate of the shortwave direct radiative effect of aerosols (DREA), both over land and ocean. Global satellite measurements of aerosol optical depth, single-scattering albedo (SSA), and phase function from PARASOL (Polarization and Anisotropy of Reflectances for Atmospheric Sciences coupled with Observations from a Lidar) are used in synergy with OMI (Ozone Monitoring Instrument) SSA. Aerosol information is combined with land-surface bidirectional reflectance distribution function and cloud characteristics from MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) satellite products. Eventual gaps in observations are filled with the state-of-the-art global aerosol model ECHAM5-HAM2. It is found that our estimate of DREA is largely insensitive to model choice. Radiative transfer calculations show that DREA at top-of-atmosphere is -4.6 +/- 1.5 W/sq m for cloud-free and -2.1 +/- 0.7 W/sq m for all-sky conditions, during year 2006. These fluxes are consistent with, albeit generally less negative over ocean than, former assessments. Unlike previous studies, our estimate is constrained by retrievals of global coverage SSA, which may justify different DREA values. Remarkable consistency is found in comparison with DREA based on CERES (Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System) and MODIS observations.

Strain diversity plays no major role in the varying efficacy of rotavirus vaccines: an overview.

PubMed

Velasquez, Daniel E; Parashar, Umesh D; Jiang, Baoming

2014-12-01

While a monovalent Rotarix® [RV1] and a pentavalent RotaTeq® [RV5] have been extensively tested and found generally safe and equally efficacious in clinical trials, the question still lingers about the evolving diversity of circulating rotavirus strains over time and their relationship with protective immunity induced by rotavirus vaccines. We reviewed data from clinical trials and observational studies that assessed the efficacy or field effectiveness of rotavirus vaccines against different rotavirus strains worldwide. RV1 provided broad clinical efficacy and field effectiveness against severe diarrhea due to all major circulating strains, including the homotypic G1P[8] and the fully heterotypic G2P[4] strains. Similarly, RV5 provided broad efficacy and effectiveness against RV5 and non-RV5 strains throughout different locations. Rotavirus vaccination provides broad heterotypic protection; however continuing surveillance is needed to track the change of circulating strains and monitor the effectiveness and safety of vaccines. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Assessment of local and regional climate signals in water stable isotopes and chemistry records from new high resolution shallow ice cores in Adélie Land, Antarctica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goursaud, Sentia; Masson Delmotte, Valerie; Preunkert, Susanne; Legrand, Michel; Werner, Martin

2017-04-01

Documenting climatic variations in Antarctica is important to characterize natural climate variability and to provide a long-term context for recent changes. For this purpose, ice cores are unique archives providing a variety of proxy records. While water stable isotopes are commonly used to reconstruct past temperatures, their variability may also reflect changes in moisture origin and evaporation conditions. Further information on the origin of air masses can be obtained from aerosols, through the chemical analyses of ice cores. In high accumulation regions, such as the coastal Adélie Land area, the combination of water stable isotope and chemical records is crucial to date ice cores by annual layer counting and assess the associated uncertainty on annual accumulation rates, but may also help to unveil past changes in regional atmospheric circulation. In order to document accumulation in the area from Dumont d'Urville station to the central Antarctic plateau, towards Dome C, the Agence Nationale de la Recherche ASUMA project (Improving the Accuracy of the Surface Mass Balance of Antarctica, 2014-2018) initiated new field campaigns and was successful in obtaining a network of new shallow ice cores in a previously undocumented region. Here, we will present new results from two shallow ice cores drilled in Adélie Land, the S1C1 ice core (67.71 °S, 139.83 °E ,279 m a.s.l.) drilled in January 2007 and the TA192A ice core (66.78 °S, 139.56 °E, 602 m a.s.l.). We have dated the ice cores by combining multi-parameter annual layer counting using major ions and δ18O, as well as reference horizons. This allowed us to estimate very contrasted accumulation rates (respectively 21.8 ± 6.9 cm w.e. y-1 and 73.38±21.9 cm w.e. y-1), averaged respectively over the period from 1946 to 2006 and from 1998 to 2014 . As a result, we have reconstructed annual accumulation rates, isotopic and ion time series, and investigated their characteristics (mean values, trends and periodicities). The high accumulation rates enables us to compare the ice core seasonal variations in δ18O and deuterium excess with outputs from the ECHAM5-wiso atmospheric general circulation model equipped with water stable isotopes and nudged to ERA reanalyses. We have investigated through statistical analyses the relationships between inter-annual variations in our new ice core records with local climatic parameters (near-surface temperature, wind speed and direction, local sea-ice extent), and with large-scale modes of variability (ENSO and PSA2). The first results rule out any significant multi-decadal trend and evidence decadal periodicities already documented in instrumental records. Remarkable years identified in one shallow ice core do not coincide with those identified in the other ice core. No significant correlation with local or regional climate parameters is identified. This suggests that either the ice core signals are dominated by changes in regional atmospheric circulation or that they are strongly affected very local effects of deposition and post deposition, in an area marked by strong katabatic winds.

The thermal environment of the human being on the global scale.

PubMed

Jendritzky, Gerd; Tinz, Birger

2009-11-11

The close relationship between human health, performance, well-being and the thermal environment is obvious. Nevertheless, most studies of climate and climate change impacts show amazing shortcomings in the assessment of the environment. Populations living in different climates have different susceptibilities, due to socio-economic reasons, and different customary behavioural adaptations. The global distribution of risks of hazardous thermal exposure has not been analysed before. To produce maps of the baseline and future bioclimate that allows a direct comparison of the differences in the vulnerability of populations to thermal stress across the world. The required climatological data fields are obtained from climate simulations with the global General Circulation Model ECHAM4 in T106-resolution. For the thermo-physiologically relevant assessment of these climate data a complete heat budget model of the human being, the 'Perceived Temperature' procedure has been applied which already comprises adaptation by clothing to a certain degree. Short-term physiological acclimatisation is considered via Health Related Assessment of the Thermal Environment. The global maps 1971-1980 (control run, assumed as baseline climate) show a pattern of thermal stress intensities as frequencies of heat. The heat load for people living in warm-humid climates is the highest. Climate change will lead to clear differences in health-related thermal stress between baseline climate and the future bioclimate 2041-2050 based on the 'business-as-usual' greenhouse gas scenario IS92a. The majority of the world's population will be faced with more frequent and more intense heat strain in spite of an assumed level of acclimatisation. Further adaptation measures are crucial in order to reduce the vulnerability of the populations. This bioclimatology analysis provides a tool for various questions in climate and climate change impact research. Considerations of regional or local scale require climate simulations with higher resolution. As adaptation is the key term in understanding the role of climate/climate change for human health, performance and well-being, further research in this field is crucial.

Spatiotemporal Variability of Mountain Block Recharge in Three Semiarid Watersheds along the U.S.-Mexico Border Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Robles-Morua, A.; Vivoni, E. R.; Mascaro, G.; Dominguez, F.; Rivera-fernandez, E. R.

2015-12-01

Groundwater recharge in semiarid mountains of the western U.S. remains a critical component of the regional water balance and has significant repercussions on water resources management, in particular during periods of drought. The bimodal distribution of annual precipitation in the southwest United States and northwest Mexico present a challenge as differential climate impacts during the winter and summer seasons are not currently well understood. In this work, we focus on the predictions of Mountain Block Recharge (MBR) using precipitation forcing from a reanalysis product, regional climate model-based precipitation products and available ground observations. MBR estimates in the Santa Cruz, San Pedro and Sonora River basins (>40,000 km2) are compared along a north to south gradient crossing the U.S.-Mexico border. As a result of the influence of the North American monsoon, the impact of seasonality in each of these systems is evaluated. Simulated precipitation fields under historical (1991-2000) conditions and climate change (2031-2040 and 2070-2080) scenarios are compared at resolutions of 10-km and 35-km as generated from the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model using boundary conditions from two general circulation models (MPI-ECHAM and HadCM3). Mountain subbasins to apply a seasonal MBR method were delineated using a threshold in terrain slope that matched official boundaries of known aquifers in these transboundary watersheds. We evaluated the MBR outcomes from the various precipitation products to quantify biases involved in the historical estimates and to inform groundwater management on the uncertainties inherent in future projections. We also inspect the variability of MBR across pluvial and drought periods lasting several years. Seasonal comparisons across a north to south spatial gradient yield a valuable assessment on the impacts of climate change on MBR for important basins in the U.S.-Mexico border region.

Modeling The Hydrology And Water Allocation Under Climate Change In Rural River Basins: A Case Study From Nam Ngum River Basin, Laos

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jayasekera, D. L.; Kaluarachchi, J.; Kim, U.

2011-12-01

Rural river basins with sufficient water availability to maintain economic livelihoods can be affected with seasonal fluctuations of precipitation and sometimes by droughts. In addition, climate change impacts can also alter future water availability. General Circulation Models (GCMs) provide credible quantitative estimates of future climate conditions but such estimates are often characterized by bias and coarse scale resolution making it necessary to downscale the outputs for use in regional hydrologic models. This study develops a methodology to downscale and project future monthly precipitation in moderate scale basins where data are limited. A stochastic framework for single-site and multi-site generation of weekly rainfall is developed while preserving the historical temporal and spatial correlation structures. The spatial correlations in the simulated occurrences and the amounts are induced using spatially correlated yet serially independent random numbers. This method is applied to generate weekly precipitation data for a 100-year period in the Nam Ngum River Basin (NNRB) that has a land area of 16,780 km2 located in Lao P.D.R. This method is developed and applied using precipitation data from 1961 to 2000 for 10 selected weather stations that represents the basin rainfall characteristics. Bias-correction method, based on fitted theoretical probability distribution transformations, is applied to improve monthly mean frequency, intensity and the amount of raw GCM precipitation predicted at a given weather station using CGCM3.1 and ECHAM5 for SRES A2 emission scenario. Bias-correction procedure adjusts GCM precipitation to approximate the long-term frequency and the intensity distribution observed at a given weather station. Index of agreement and mean absolute error are determined to assess the overall ability and performance of the bias correction method. The generated precipitation series aggregated at monthly time step was perturbed by the change factors estimated using the corrected GCM and baseline scenarios for future time periods of 2011-2050 and 2051-2090. A network based hydrologic and water resources model, WEAP, was used to simulate the current water allocation and management practices to identify the impacts of climate change in the 20th century. The results of this work are used to identify the multiple challenges faced by stakeholders and planners in water allocation for competing demands in the presence of climate change impacts.

What Drives Hydrogen Isotopic Variability Recorded by Biomarkers in Sediments of Lake Karakul, Pamir?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aichner, B.; Mischke, S.; Pausata, F. S. R.; Werner, M.; Zhang, Q.; Heinecke, L.; Feakins, S. J.; Sachse, D.; Mahmoudov, Z.; Rajabov, I.

2017-12-01

Central Asia is a climate sensitive region located at the boundary of large scale atmospheric circulation systems. To examine glacial to interglacial hydrological changes in the region, we analysed the hydrogen isotopic composition (δD values) of n-alkanes in a 30-ka record from Lake Karakul, eastern Pamir (altitude: 3,915m, MAT: -3.9 °C, MAP: 82 mm). δD values of both aquatic and terrestrial compounds showed distinct trends throughout the studied time interval, with generally higher values during the glacial and lower values during the Holocene, and variability of up to 60‰. In particular shifts towards higher δD values were observed for aquatic biomarkers at ca. 30, 27, and 15 ka BP. Temperature and precipitation effects alone cannot explain the higher δD values during the glacial and the large isotopic amplitudes. To explain these observations we conducted a set of experiments using atmospheric models with embedded isotope modules (CAM3iso- and ECHAM5-wiso). We assume that terrestrial n-alkanes mainly record the isotopic signature of summer precipitation within the lower elevated parts of the Karakul Basin. Based on the model output we hypothesize that shifts between local and more distant vapour sources are the reason behind the trends within isotopic data. Data derived from aquatic biomarkers are more difficult to explain due to multiple influencing factors on δD of the lake water. Assuming that the lake water integrates an annual isotopic signal from the whole lake catchment, we suggest that a change in precipitation seasonality drives the large variability of hydrogen isotopic values. This is in agreement with the models, which suggest reduced winter (more negative δD) and slightly higher summer precipitation (more positive δD) during the glacial compared to the Holocene. Consequently, a net-increase of isotopically enriched inflow into the lake could explain the three distinct shifts towards higher δD values. Expansion of terrestrial vegetation, indicated by increasing biomarker concentrations, during these periods is another indicator for wetter summers in an arid environment. We conclude that δD values of terrestrial compounds reflect major shifts of vapour sources which are driven by insolation, while aquatic biomarkers are additionally influenced by changes of precipitation seasonality.

Estimates of late Cenozoic climate change relevant to Earth surface processes in tectonically active orogens

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mutz, Sebastian G.; Ehlers, Todd A.; Werner, Martin; Lohmann, Gerrit; Stepanek, Christian; Li, Jingmin

2018-04-01

The denudation history of active orogens is often interpreted in the context of modern climate gradients. Here we address the validity of this approach and ask what are the spatial and temporal variations in palaeoclimate for a latitudinally diverse range of active orogens? We do this using high-resolution (T159, ca. 80 × 80 km at the Equator) palaeoclimate simulations from the ECHAM5 global atmospheric general circulation model and a statistical cluster analysis of climate over different orogens (Andes, Himalayas, SE Alaska, Pacific NW USA). Time periods and boundary conditions considered include the Pliocene (PLIO, ˜ 3 Ma), the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ˜ 21 ka), mid-Holocene (MH, ˜ 6 ka), and pre-industrial (PI, reference year 1850). The regional simulated climates of each orogen are described by means of cluster analyses based on the variability in precipitation, 2 m air temperature, the intra-annual amplitude of these values, and monsoonal wind speeds where appropriate. Results indicate the largest differences in the PI climate existed for the LGM and PLIO climates in the form of widespread cooling and reduced precipitation in the LGM and warming and enhanced precipitation during the PLIO. The LGM climate shows the largest deviation in annual precipitation from the PI climate and shows enhanced precipitation in the temperate Andes and coastal regions for both SE Alaska and the US Pacific Northwest. Furthermore, LGM precipitation is reduced in the western Himalayas and enhanced in the eastern Himalayas, resulting in a shift of the wettest regional climates eastward along the orogen. The cluster-analysis results also suggest more climatic variability across latitudes east of the Andes in the PLIO climate than in other time slice experiments conducted here. Taken together, these results highlight significant changes in late Cenozoic regional climatology over the last ˜ 3 Myr. Comparison of simulated climate with proxy-based reconstructions for the MH and LGM reveal satisfactory to good performance of the model in reproducing precipitation changes, although in some cases discrepancies between neighbouring proxy observations highlight contradictions between proxy observations themselves. Finally, we document regions where the largest magnitudes of late Cenozoic changes in precipitation and temperature occur and offer the highest potential for future observational studies that quantify the impact of climate change on denudation and weathering rates.

25 CFR 175.5 - Operations manual.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... Provisions § 175.5 Operations manual. (a) The Area Director shall establish an operations manual for the... Director shall amend the operations manual as needed. (b) The public shall be notified by the Area Director... shall be published in local newspaper(s) of general circulation, posted at the utility office(s), and...

The GEOS-5 Atmospheric General Circulation Model: Mean Climate and Development from MERRA to Fortuna

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Molod, Andrea; Takacs, Lawrence; Suarez, Max; Bacmeister, Julio; Song, In-Sun; Eichmann, Andrew

2012-01-01

This report is a documentation of the Fortuna version of the GEOS-5 Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM). The GEOS-5 AGCM is currently in use in the NASA Goddard Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) for simulations at a wide range of resolutions, in atmosphere only, coupled ocean-atmosphere, and data assimilation modes. The focus here is on the development subsequent to the version that was used as part of NASA s Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA). We present here the results of a series of 30-year atmosphere-only simulations at different resolutions, with focus on the behavior of the 1-degree resolution simulation. The details of the changes in parameterizations subsequent to the MERRA model version are outlined, and results of a series of 30-year, atmosphere-only climate simulations at 2-degree resolution are shown to demonstrate changes in simulated climate associated with specific changes in parameterizations. The GEOS-5 AGCM presented here is the model used for the GMAO s atmosphere-only and coupled CMIP-5 simulations.

Prediction of Recurrent Stroke or Transient Ischemic Attack After Noncardiogenic Posterior Circulation Ischemic Stroke.

PubMed

Zhang, Changqing; Wang, Yilong; Zhao, Xingquan; Liu, Liping; Wang, ChunXue; Pu, Yuehua; Zou, Xinying; Pan, Yuesong; Wong, Ka Sing; Wang, Yongjun

2017-07-01

Posterior circulation ischemic stroke (IS) is generally considered an illness with a poor prognosis. However, there are no effective rating scales to predict recurrent stroke following it. Therefore, our aim was to identify clinical or radiological measures that could assist in predicting recurrent cerebral ischemic episodes. We prospectively enrolled 723 noncardiogenic posterior circulation IS patients with onset of symptoms <7 days. Stroke risk factors, admission symptoms and signs, topographical distribution and responsible cerebral artery of acute infarcts, and any recurrent IS or transient ischemic attack (TIA) within 1 year were assessed. Cox regression was used to identify risk factors associated with recurrent IS or TIA within the year after posterior circulation IS. A total of 40 patients (5.5%) had recurrent IS or TIA within 1 year of posterior circulation IS. Multivariate Cox regression identified chief complaint with dysphagia (hazard ratio [HR], 4.16; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.69-10.2; P =0.002), repeated TIAs within 3 months before the stroke (HR, 15.4; 95% CI, 5.55-42.5; P <0.0001), responsible artery stenosis ≥70% (HR, 7.91; 95% CI, 1.00-62.6; P =0.05), multisector infarcts (HR, 5.38; 95% CI, 1.25-23.3; P =0.02), and not on antithrombotics treatment at discharge (HR, 3.06; 95% CI, 1.09-8.58; P =0.03) as independent predictors of recurrent IS or TIA. Some posterior circulation IS patients are at higher risk for recurrent IS or TIA. Urgent assessment and preventive treatment should be offered to these patients as soon as possible. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

The Mean State and Inter-annual Variability of East Asian Summer Monsoon in CMIP5 Coupled Models: Does Air-Sea Coupling Improve the Simulations?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, T.; Song, F.

2014-12-01

The climatology and inter-annual variability of East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) simulated by 34 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) are evaluated. To estimate the role of air-sea coupling, 17 CGCMs are compared to their corresponding atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs). The climatological low-level monsoon circulation and mei-yu/changma/baiu rainfall band are improved in CGCMs from AGCMs. The improvement is at the cost of the local cold sea surface temperature (SST) biases in CGCMs, since they decrease the surface evaporation and enhance the circulation. The inter-annual EASM pattern is evaluated by a skill formula and the highest/lowest 8 models are selected to investigate the skill origins. The observed Indian Ocean (IO) warming, tropical eastern Indian Ocean (TEIO) rainfall anomalies and Kelvin wave response are captured well in high-skill models, while these features are not present in low-skill models. Further, the differences in the IO warming between high-skill and low-skill models are rooted in the preceding ENSO simulation. Hence, the IO-WPAC teleconnection is important for CGCMs, similar to AGCMs. However, compared to AGCMs, the easterly anomalies in the southern flank of the WPAC make the TEIO warmer in CGCMs by reducing the climatological monsoon westerlies and decreasing the surface evaporation. The warmer TEIO induces the stronger precipitation anomalies and intensifies the teleconnection. Hence, the inter-annual EASM pattern is better simulated in CGCMs than that in AGCMs. Key words: CMIP5, CGCMs, air-sea coupling, AGCMs, inter-annual EASM pattern, ENSO, IO-WPAC teleconnection

Astronomically paced middle Eocene deepwater circulation in the western North Atlantic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vahlenkamp, Maximilian; Niezgodzki, Igor; De Vleeschouwer, David; Bickert, Torsten; Harper, Dustin; Lohmann, Gerrit; Pälike, Heiko; Zachos, James C.

2017-04-01

The role of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) as a key player for abrupt climatic changes (e.g. Heinrich Stadials) during the Pleistocene is relatively well constrained. However, the timing of the onset of a „modern" North Atlantic Deepwater (NADW) formation are still debated: Recent estimates range from the middle Miocene to the Early Eocene [Davies et al., 2001, Stoker et al., 2005, Hohbein et al., 2012] and are mainly based on the seismic interpretation contourite drifts. Another understudied aspect of the AMOC is its behavior during climatic variations on orbital time scales and under different climatic boundary conditions (icehouse vs hothouse). IODP Expedition 342 drilled carbonate-rich sequences from sediment drifts offshore Newfoundland that cover the middle Eocene with high sedimentation rates ( 3 cm/ kyr). We present a 2 Myr long stable carbon and oxygen isotope record of benthic foraminifera nuttalides truempyi spanning magnetochron C20r in unprecedented resolution (< 2 kyr/sample), sufficient to resolve dominant Milankovic frequencies. Data from Site U1410 (3400m water depth) indicate an active overturning in the North Atlantic during the middle Eocene, sensitively responding to variations in Earth's axial tilt (obliquity). Experiments in a GCM (ECHAM5 - MPIOM, OASIS 3 coupled) indicate that temperatures in the Norwegian and Labrador Sea could have allowed for sea ice during winter in a minimal obliquity setting (22.1°), whereas temperatures are too high to allow sea ice formation under maximum obliquity (24.5°) winter conditions depending on Eocene boundary conditions (atmospheric CO2 concentration). We hypothesize that the combined effect of low temperatures in the sinking areas, an increased latitudinal SST gradient seasonal, and the potential formation of sea ice during obliquity minima results in an initial shallow NADW formation during the middle Eocene. This hypothesis is in accordance with the astronomical imprint observed in the data from IODP Site U1410. Davies, R., Cartwright, J., Pike, J., and Line, C., 2001, Early Oligocene initiation of North Atlantic deep water formation: Nature, v. 410, no. 6831, p. 917-920. Stoker, M. S., Praeg, D., Hjelstuen, B. O., Laberg, J. S., Nielsen, T., and Shannon, P. M., 2005, Neogene stratigraphy and the sedimentary and oceanographic development of the NW European Atlantic margin: Marine and Petroleum Geology, v. 22, no. 9, p. 977-1005. Hohbein, M. W., Sexton, P. F., and Cartwright, J. A., 2012, Onset of North Atlantic Deep Water production coincident with inception of the Cenozoic global cooling trend: Geology, v. 40, no. 3, p. 255-258.

Assessment and simulation of global terrestrial latent heat flux by synthesis of CMIP5 climate models and surface eddy covariance observations

Treesearch

Yunjun Yao; Shunlin Liang; Xianglan Li; Shaomin Liu; Jiquan Chen; Xiaotong Zhang; Kun Jia; Bo Jiang; Xianhong Xie; Simon Munier; Meng Liu; Jian Yu; Anders Lindroth; Andrej Varlagin; Antonio Raschi; Asko Noormets; Casimiro Pio; Georg Wohlfahrt; Ge Sun; Jean-Christophe Domec; Leonardo Montagnani; Magnus Lund; Moors Eddy; Peter D. Blanken; Thomas Grunwald; Sebastian Wolf; Vincenzo Magliulo

2016-01-01

The latent heat flux (LE) between the terrestrial biosphere and atmosphere is a major driver of the globalhydrological cycle. In this study, we evaluated LE simulations by 45 general circulation models (GCMs)in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) by a comparison...

Climate impacts of deforestation/land-use changes in Central South America in the PRECIS regional climate model: mean precipitation and temperature response to present and future deforestation scenarios.

PubMed

Canziani, Pablo O; Carbajal Benitez, Gerardo

2012-01-01

Deforestation/land-use changes are major drivers of regional climate change in central South America, impacting upon Amazonia and Gran Chaco ecoregions. Most experimental and modeling studies have focused on the resulting perturbations within Amazonia. Using the Regional Climate Model PRECIS, driven by ERA-40 reanalysis and ECHAM4 Baseline model for the period 1961-2000 (40-year runs), potential effects of deforestation/land-use changes in these and other neighboring ecoregions are evaluated. Current 2002 and estimated 2030 land-use scenarios are used to assess PRECIS's response during 1960-2000. ERA-40 and ECHAM4 Baseline driven runs yield similar results. Precipitation changes for 2002 and 2030 land-use scenarios, while significant within deforested areas, do not result in significant regional changes. For temperature significant changes are found within deforested areas and beyond, with major temperature enhancements during winter and spring. Given the current climate, primary effects of deforestation/land-use changes remain mostly confined to the tropical latitudes of Gran Chaco, and Amazonia.

Climate Impacts of Deforestation/Land-Use Changes in Central South America in the PRECIS Regional Climate Model: Mean Precipitation and Temperature Response to Present and Future Deforestation Scenarios

PubMed Central

Canziani, Pablo O.; Carbajal Benitez, Gerardo

2012-01-01

Deforestation/land-use changes are major drivers of regional climate change in central South America, impacting upon Amazonia and Gran Chaco ecoregions. Most experimental and modeling studies have focused on the resulting perturbations within Amazonia. Using the Regional Climate Model PRECIS, driven by ERA-40 reanalysis and ECHAM4 Baseline model for the period 1961–2000 (40-year runs), potential effects of deforestation/land-use changes in these and other neighboring ecoregions are evaluated. Current 2002 and estimated 2030 land-use scenarios are used to assess PRECIS's response during 1960–2000. ERA-40 and ECHAM4 Baseline driven runs yield similar results. Precipitation changes for 2002 and 2030 land-use scenarios, while significant within deforested areas, do not result in significant regional changes. For temperature significant changes are found within deforested areas and beyond, with major temperature enhancements during winter and spring. Given the current climate, primary effects of deforestation/land-use changes remain mostly confined to the tropical latitudes of Gran Chaco, and Amazonia. PMID:22645487

Initializing decadal climate predictions over the North Atlantic region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matei, Daniela Mihaela; Pohlmann, Holger; Jungclaus, Johann; Müller, Wolfgang; Haak, Helmuth; Marotzke, Jochem

2010-05-01

Decadal climate prediction aims to predict the internally-generated decadal climate variability in addition to externally-forced climate change signal. In order to achieve this it is necessary to start the predictions from the current climate state. In this study we investigate the forecast skill of the North Atlantic decadal climate predictions using two different ocean initialization strategies. First we apply an assimilation of ocean synthesis data provided by the GECCO project (Köhl and Stammer, 2008) as initial conditions for the coupled model ECHAM5/MPI-OM. Hindcast experiments are then performed over the period 1952-2001. An alternative approach is one in which the subsurface ocean temperature and salinity are diagnosed from an ensemble of ocean model runs forced by the NCEP-NCAR atmospheric reanalyzes for the period 1948-2007, then nudge into the coupled model to produce initial conditions for the hindcast experiments. An anomaly coupling scheme is used in both approaches to avoid the hindcast drift and the associated initial shock. Differences between the two assimilation approaches are discussed by comparing them with the observational data in key regions and processes. We asses the skill of the initialized decadal hindcast experiments against the prediction skill of the non-initialized hindcasts simulation. We obtain an overview of the regions with the highest predictability from the regional distribution of the anomaly correlation coefficients and RMSE for the SAT. For the first year the hindcast skill is increased over almost all ocean regions in the NCEP-forced approach. This increase in the hindcast skill for the 1 year lead time is somewhat reduced in the GECCO approach. At lead time 5yr and 10yr, the skill enhancement is still found over the North Atlantic and North Pacific regions. We also consider the potential predictability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and Nordic Seas Overflow by comparing the predicted values to the respective assimilation experiments. Hindcasts of Atlantic MOC and Denmark Strait Overflow show higher predictability than the comparison experiments without initialization and damped persistence predictions up to about 5-6 years.

Circulating FABP4 and FABP5 levels are differently linked to OSA severity and treatment.

PubMed

Català, Raquel; Cabré, Anna; Hernández-Flix, Salvador; Ferré, Raimón; Sangenís, Sandra; Plana, Núria; Texidó, Anna; Masana, Lluís

2013-12-01

To evaluate circulating adipocyte and epidermal fatty acid-binding protein (FABP4 and FABP5) concentrations in patients with obstructive sleep apnea (OSA), as well as the effects of continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) treatment. Our cross-sectional study included 125 patients. After polysomnography, 58 participants met the criteria for CPAP treatment and were included in a closed cohort study of 8 weeks of CPAP treatment. General anthropometric and biochemical data and circulating FABP4 and FABP5 levels were determined in all patients at baseline and after CPAP treatment in those receiving this therapy. Circulating FABP4 but not FABP5 levels were higher in patients with OSA (P = 0.003). FABP4 but not FABP5 values were associated with parameters of OSA severity independently of age, gender, adiposity and insulin resistance (P < 0.05). FABP4 but not FABP5 concentrations were determinants of OSA presence (OR: 1.11, P = 0.010) and severity (OR: 1.06, P = 0.020). After CPAP treatment, FABP4 levels decreased in the more severe patients (P = 0.019), while FABP5 levels increased in all patients (P < 0.001). FABP4 is directly associated with obstructive sleep apnea severity and did not change with continuous positive airway pressure treatment, while FABP5 was not associated with obstructive sleep apnea severity and increased with continuous positive airway pressure treatment. FABP4 and FABP5 have different associations with obstructive sleep apnea. FABP4 but not FABP5 could be considered a marker of metabolic alterations in obstructive sleep apnea patients.

Forcing mechanism of the seasonally asymmetric quasi-biennial oscillation secondary circulation in ERA-40 and MAECHAM5

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peña-Ortiz, C.; Ribera, P.; García-Herrera, R.; Giorgetta, M. A.; García, R. R.

2008-08-01

The seasonality of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and its secondary circulation is analyzed in the European Reanalysis (ERA-40) and Middle Atmosphere European Centre Hamburg Model (MAECHAM5) general circulation model data sets through the multitaper method-singular value decomposition (MTM-SVD). In agreement with previous studies, the results reveal a strong seasonal dependence of the QBO secondary circulation. This is characterized by a two-cell structure symmetric about the equator during autumn and spring. However, anomalies strongly weaken in the summer hemisphere and strengthen in the winter hemisphere, leading to an asymmetric QBO secondary circulation characterized by a single-cell structure displaced into the winter hemisphere during the solstices. In ERA-40, this asymmetry is more pronounced during the northern than during the southern winter. These results provide the first observation of the QBO secondary circulation asymmetries in the ERA-40 reanalysis data set across the full stratosphere and the lower mesosphere, up to 0.1 hPa. The MTM-SVD reconstruction of the seasonal QBO signals in the residual circulation and the QBO signals in Eliassen Palm (EP) flux divergences suggest a particular mechanism for the seasonal asymmetries of the QBO secondary circulation and its extension across the midlatitudes. The analysis shows that the QBO modulates the EP flux in the winter hemispheric surf zone poleward of the QBO jets. The zonal wind forcing by EP flux divergence is transformed by the Coriolis effect into a meridional wind signal. The seasonality in the stratospheric EP flux and the hemispheric differences in planetary wave forcing cause the observed seasonality in the QBO secondary circulation and its hemispheric differences.

Does coupled ocean enhance ozone-hole-induced Southern Hemisphere circulation changes?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Son, S. W.; Han, B. R.; Kim, S. Y.; Park, R.

2017-12-01

The ozone-hole-induced Southern Hemisphere (SH) circulation changes, such as poleward shift of westerly jet and Hadley cell widening, have been typically explored with either coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) prescribing stratospheric ozone or chemistry-climate models (CCMs) prescribing surface boundary conditions. Only few studies have utilized ocean-coupled CCMs with a relatively coarse resolution. To better quantify the role of interactive chemistry and coupled ocean in the ozone-hole-induced SH circulation changes, the present study examines a set of CGCM and CCM simulations archived for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) and CCM initiative (CCMI). Although inter-model spread of Antarctic ozone depletion is substantially large especially in the austral spring, both CGCMs with relatively simple ozone chemistry and CCMs with fully interactive comprehensive chemistry reasonably well reproduce long-term trends of Antarctic ozone and the associated polar-stratospheric temperature changes. Most models reproduce a poleward shift of SH jet and Hadley-cell widening in the austral summer in the late 20th century as identified in reanalysis datasets. These changes are quasi-linearly related with Antarctic ozone changes, confirming the critical role of Antarctic ozone depletion in the austral-summer zonal-mean circulation changes. The CGCMs with simple but still interactive ozone show slightly stronger circulation changes than those with prescribed ozone. However, the long-term circulation changes in CCMs are largely insensitive to the coupled ocean. While a few models show the enhanced circulation changes when ocean is coupled, others show essentially no changes or even weakened circulation changes. This result suggests that the ozone-hole-related stratosphere-troposphere coupling in the late 20th century may be only weakly sensitive to the coupled ocean.

Analyzing the future climate change of Upper Blue Nile River basin using statistical downscaling techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fenta Mekonnen, Dagnenet; Disse, Markus

2018-04-01

Climate change is becoming one of the most threatening issues for the world today in terms of its global context and its response to environmental and socioeconomic drivers. However, large uncertainties between different general circulation models (GCMs) and coarse spatial resolutions make it difficult to use the outputs of GCMs directly, especially for sustainable water management at regional scale, which introduces the need for downscaling techniques using a multimodel approach. This study aims (i) to evaluate the comparative performance of two widely used statistical downscaling techniques, namely the Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG) and the Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM), and (ii) to downscale future climate scenarios of precipitation, maximum temperature (Tmax) and minimum temperature (Tmin) of the Upper Blue Nile River basin at finer spatial and temporal scales to suit further hydrological impact studies. The calibration and validation result illustrates that both downscaling techniques (LARS-WG and SDSM) have shown comparable and good ability to simulate the current local climate variables. Further quantitative and qualitative comparative performance evaluation was done by equally weighted and varying weights of statistical indexes for precipitation only. The evaluation result showed that SDSM using the canESM2 CMIP5 GCM was able to reproduce more accurate long-term mean monthly precipitation but LARS-WG performed best in capturing the extreme events and distribution of daily precipitation in the whole data range. Six selected multimodel CMIP3 GCMs, namely HadCM3, GFDL-CM2.1, ECHAM5-OM, CCSM3, MRI-CGCM2.3.2 and CSIRO-MK3 GCMs, were used for downscaling climate scenarios by the LARS-WG model. The result from the ensemble mean of the six GCM showed an increasing trend for precipitation, Tmax and Tmin. The relative change in precipitation ranged from 1.0 to 14.4 % while the change for mean annual Tmax may increase from 0.4 to 4.3 °C and the change for mean annual Tmin may increase from 0.3 to 4.1 °C. The individual result of the HadCM3 GCM has a good agreement with the ensemble mean result. HadCM3 from CMIP3 using A2a and B2a scenarios and canESM2 from CMIP5 GCMs under RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios were downscaled by SDSM. The result from the two GCMs under five different scenarios agrees with the increasing direction of three climate variables (precipitation, Tmax and Tmin). The relative change of the downscaled mean annual precipitation ranges from 2.1 to 43.8 % while the change for mean annual Tmax and Tmin may increase in the range from 0.4 to 2.9 °C and from 0.3 to 1.6 °C respectively.

The global aerosol-climate model ECHAM-HAM, version 2: sensitivity to improvements in process representations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, K.; O'Donnell, D.; Kazil, J.; Stier, P.; Kinne, S.; Lohmann, U.; Ferrachat, S.; Croft, B.; Quaas, J.; Wan, H.; Rast, S.; Feichter, J.

2012-03-01

This paper introduces and evaluates the second version of the global aerosol-climate model ECHAM-HAM. Major changes have been brought into the model, including new parameterizations for aerosol nucleation and water uptake, an explicit treatment of secondary organic aerosols, modified emission calculations for sea salt and mineral dust, the coupling of aerosol microphysics to a two-moment stratiform cloud microphysics scheme, and alternative wet scavenging parameterizations. These revisions extend the model's capability to represent details of the aerosol lifecycle and its interaction with climate. Sensitivity experiments are carried out to analyse the effects of these improvements in the process representation on the simulated aerosol properties and global distribution. The new parameterizations that have largest impact on the global mean aerosol optical depth and radiative effects turn out to be the water uptake scheme and cloud microphysics. The former leads to a significant decrease of aerosol water contents in the lower troposphere, and consequently smaller optical depth; the latter results in higher aerosol loading and longer lifetime due to weaker in-cloud scavenging. The combined effects of the new/updated parameterizations are demonstrated by comparing the new model results with those from the earlier version, and against observations. Model simulations are evaluated in terms of aerosol number concentrations against measurements collected from twenty field campaigns as well as from fixed measurement sites, and in terms of optical properties against the AERONET measurements. Results indicate a general improvement with respect to the earlier version. The aerosol size distribution and spatial-temporal variance simulated by HAM2 are in better agreement with the observations. Biases in the earlier model version in aerosol optical depth and in the Ångström parameter have been reduced. The paper also points out the remaining model deficiencies that need to be addressed in the future.

Circulating FABP4 and FABP5 Levels Are Differently Linked to OSA Severity and Treatment

PubMed Central

Català, Raquel; Cabré, Anna; Hernández-Flix, Salvador; Ferré, Raimón; Sangenís, Sandra; Plana, Núria; Texidó, Anna; Masana, Lluís

2013-01-01

Objective: To evaluate circulating adipocyte and epidermal fatty acid-binding protein (FABP4 and FABP5) concentrations in patients with obstructive sleep apnea (OSA), as well as the effects of continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) treatment. Methods: Our cross-sectional study included 125 patients. After polysomnography, 58 participants met the criteria for CPAP treatment and were included in a closed cohort study of 8 weeks of CPAP treatment. General anthropometric and biochemical data and circulating FABP4 and FABP5 levels were determined in all patients at baseline and after CPAP treatment in those receiving this therapy. Results Circulating FABP4 but not FABP5 levels were higher in patients with OSA (P = 0.003). FABP4 but not FABP5 values were associated with parameters of OSA severity independently of age, gender, adiposity and insulin resistance (P < 0.05). FABP4 but not FABP5 concentrations were determinants of OSA presence (OR: 1.11, P = 0.010) and severity (OR: 1.06, P = 0.020). After CPAP treatment, FABP4 levels decreased in the more severe patients (P = 0.019), while FABP5 levels increased in all patients (P < 0.001). Conclusions FABP4 is directly associated with obstructive sleep apnea severity and did not change with continuous positive airway pressure treatment, while FABP5 was not associated with obstructive sleep apnea severity and increased with continuous positive airway pressure treatment. FABP4 and FABP5 have different associations with obstructive sleep apnea. FABP4 but not FABP5 could be considered a marker of metabolic alterations in obstructive sleep apnea patients. Citation: Català R; Cabré A; Hernández-Flix S; Ferré R; Sangenís S; Plana N; Texidó A; Masana L. Circulating FABP4 and FABP5 levels are differently linked to OSA severity and treatment. SLEEP 2013;36(12):1831-1837. PMID:24293757

The Venus nitric oxide night airglow - Model calculations based on the Venus Thermospheric General Circulation Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bougher, S. W.; Gerard, J. C.; Stewart, A. I. F.; Fesen, C. G.

1990-01-01

The mechanism responsible for the Venus nitric oxide (0,1) delta band nightglow observed in the Pioneer Venus Orbiter UV spectrometer (OUVS) images was investigated using the Venus Thermospheric General Circulation Model (Dickinson et al., 1984), modified to include simple odd nitrogen chemistry. Results obtained for the solar maximum conditions indicate that the recently revised dark-disk average NO intensity at 198.0 nm, based on statistically averaged OUVS measurements, can be reproduced with minor modifications in chemical rate coefficients. The results imply a nightside hemispheric downward N flux of (2.5-3) x 10 to the 9th/sq cm sec, corresponding to the dayside net production of N atoms needed for transport.

Evaluation of the North American Multi-Model Ensemble System for Monthly and Seasonal Prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Q.

2014-12-01

Since August 2011, the real time seasonal forecasts of the U.S. National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) have been made on 8th of each month by NCEP Climate Prediction Center (CPC). The participating models were NCEP/CFSv1&2, GFDL/CM2.2, NCAR/U.Miami/COLA/CCSM3, NASA/GEOS5, IRI/ ECHAM-a & ECHAM-f in the first year of the real time NMME forecast. Two Canadian coupled models CMC/CanCM3 and CM4 joined in and CFSv1 and IRI's models dropped out in the second year. The NMME team at CPC collects monthly means of three variables, precipitation, temperature at 2m and sea surface temperature from each modeling center on a 1x1 global grid, removes systematic errors, makes the grand ensemble mean in equal weight for each model mean and probability forecast with equal weight for each member of each model. This provides the NMME forecast locked in schedule for the CPC operational seasonal and monthly outlook. The basic verification metrics of seasonal and monthly prediction of NMME are calculated as an evaluation of skill, including both deterministic and probabilistic forecasts for the 3-year real time (August, 2011- July 2014) period and the 30-year retrospective forecast (1982-2011) of the individual models as well as the NMME ensemble. The motivation of this study is to provide skill benchmarks for future improvements of the NMME seasonal and monthly prediction system. We also want to establish whether the real time and hindcast periods (used for bias correction in real time) are consistent. The experimental phase I of the project already supplies routine guidance to users of the NMME forecasts.

Dynamics and composition of the Asian summer monsoon anticyclone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gottschaldt, Klaus-Dirk; Schlager, Hans; Baumann, Robert; Sinh Cai, Duy; Eyring, Veronika; Graf, Phoebe; Grewe, Volker; Jöckel, Patrick; Jurkat-Witschas, Tina; Voigt, Christiane; Zahn, Andreas; Ziereis, Helmut

2018-04-01

This study places HALO research aircraft observations in the upper-tropospheric Asian summer monsoon anticyclone (ASMA) into the context of regional, intra-annual variability by hindcasts with the ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) model. The observations were obtained during the Earth System Model Validation (ESMVal) campaign in September 2012. Observed and simulated tracer-tracer relations reflect photochemical O3 production as well as in-mixing from the lower troposphere and the tropopause layer. The simulations demonstrate that tropospheric trace gas profiles in the monsoon season are distinct from those in the rest of the year, and the measurements reflect the main processes acting throughout the monsoon season. Net photochemical O3 production is significantly enhanced in the ASMA, where uplifted precursors meet increased NOx, mainly produced by lightning. An analysis of multiple monsoon seasons in the simulation shows that stratospherically influenced tropopause layer air is regularly entrained at the eastern ASMA flank and then transported in the southern fringe around the interior region. Radial transport barriers of the circulation are effectively overcome by subseasonal dynamical instabilities of the anticyclone, which occur quite frequently and are of paramount importance for the trace gas composition of the ASMA. Both the isentropic entrainment of O3-rich air and the photochemical conversion of uplifted O3-poor air tend to increase O3 in the ASMA outflow.

Chemistry-Climate Interactions in the Goddard Institute for Space Studies General Circulation Model. 2; New Insights into Modeling the Pre-Industrial Atmosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Grenfell, J. Lee; Shindell, D. T.; Koch, D.; Rind, D.; Hansen, James E. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

We investigate the chemical (hydroxyl and ozone) and dynamical response to changing from present day to pre-industrial conditions in the Goddard Institute for Space Studies General Circulation Model (GISS GMC). We identify three main improvements not included by many other works. Firstly, our model includes interactive cloud calculations. Secondly we reduce sulfate aerosol which impacts NOx partitioning hence Ox distributions. Thirdly we reduce sea surface temperatures and increase ocean ice coverage which impact water vapor and ground albedo respectively. Changing the ocean data (hence water vapor and ozone) produces a potentially important feedback between the Hadley circulation and convective cloud cover. Our present day run (run 1, control run) global mean OH value was 9.8 x 10(exp 5) molecules/cc. For our best estimate of pre-industrial conditions run (run 2) which featured modified chemical emissions, sulfate aerosol and sea surface temperatures/ocean ice, this value changed to 10.2 x 10(exp 5) molecules/cc. Reducing only the chemical emissions to pre-industrial levels in run 1 (run 3) resulted in this value increasing to 10.6 x 10(exp 5) molecules/cc. Reducing the sulfate in run 3 to pre-industrial levels (run 4) resulted in a small increase in global mean OH (10.7 x 10(exp 5) molecules/cc). Changing the ocean data in run 4 to pre-industrial levels (run 5) led to a reduction in this value to 10.3 x 10(exp 5) molecules/cc. Mean tropospheric ozone burdens were 262, 181, 180, 180, and 182 Tg for runs 1-5 respectively.

A Thermodynamically General Theory for Convective Circulations and Vortices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Renno, N. O.

2007-12-01

Convective circulations and vortices are common features of atmospheres that absorb low-entropy-energy at higher temperatures than they reject high-entropy-energy to space. These circulations range from small to planetary-scale and play an important role in the vertical transport of heat, momentum, and tracer species. Thus, the development of theoretical models for convective phenomena is important to our understanding of many basic features of planetary atmospheres. A thermodynamically general theory for convective circulations and vortices is proposed. The theory includes irreversible processes and quantifies the pressure drop between the environment and any point in a convective updraft. The article's main result is that the proposed theory provides an expression for the pressure drop along streamlines or streamtubes that is a generalization of Bernoulli's equation to convective circulations. We speculate that the proposed theory not only explains the intensity, but also shed light on other basic features of convective circulations and vortices.

[Effect of the proteolytic enzyme papain on the body organs and systems of experimental animals].

PubMed

Udod, V M; Storozhuk, V T; Trofimenko, S P; Shabash, E G; Markelov, S I

1983-01-01

When administered intravenously and intraarterially papaine (2.5 and 10 mg/kg) produces no toxic effects on respiration, arterial pressure, brain and intracranial circulation. Intrapleural, intraperitoneal and interstitial administration of papaine solutions in doses under 4.5 mg/kg produces no local or general changes on the part of experimental animals' organism.

End-of-century projections of North American atmospheric river events in CMIP5 climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Warner, M.; Mass, C.; Salathe, E. P., Jr.

2013-12-01

Most extreme precipitation events that occur along the North American west coast are associated with narrow plumes of above-average water vapor concentration that stretch from the tropics or subtropics to the West Coast. These events generally occur during the wet season (October-March) and are referred to as atmospheric rivers (AR). ARs can cause major river management problems, damage from flooding or landslides, and loss of life. It is expected that anthropogenic global warming could lead to changes in the general circulation of the atmosphere, such as Hadley Cell expansion and jet stream and storm track shifts. Since AR events are associated with cyclonic activity that originates near and propagates along the jet stream, the jet stream configuration influences the frequency and location of AR landfall along the North American west coast. Therefore, it is probable that any changes in the general circulation of the atmosphere will result in changes in the frequency, orientation, and location of AR landfalls. Generally, along the West Coast, CMIP5 models predict increases in integrated water vapor and precipitation, and little change in low-level wind associated with AR events. In this study, CMIP5 RCP 8.5 climate models and high resolution regional climate models are used to analyze predicted changes in frequency and location of AR events impacting the West Coast from the contemporary period (1970-1999) to the end of this century (2070-2099).

Circulation control propellers for general aviation, including a BASIC computer program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Taback, I.; Braslow, A. L.; Butterfield, A. J.

1983-01-01

The feasibility of replacing variable pitch propeller mechanisms with circulation control (Coanada effect) propellers on general aviation airplanes was examined. The study used a specially developed computer program written in BASIC which could compare the aerodynamic performance of circulation control propellers with conventional propellers. The comparison of aerodynamic performance for circulation control, fixed pitch and variable pitch propellers is based upon the requirements for a 1600 kg (3600 lb) single engine general aviation aircraft. A circulation control propeller using a supercritical airfoil was shown feasible over a representative range of design conditions. At a design condition for high speed cruise, all three types of propellers showed approximately the same performance. At low speed, the performance of the circulation control propeller exceeded the performance for a fixed pitch propeller, but did not match the performance available from a variable pitch propeller. It appears feasible to consider circulation control propellers for single engine aircraft or multiengine aircraft which have their propellers on a common axis (tractor pusher). The economics of the replacement requires a study for each specific airplane application.

Correlations between the modelled potato crop yield and the general atmospheric circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sepp, Mait; Saue, Triin

2012-07-01

Biology-related indicators do not usually depend on just one meteorological element but on a combination of several weather indicators. One way to establish such integral indicators is to classify the general atmospheric circulation into a small number of circulation types. The aim of present study is to analyse connections between general atmospheric circulation and potato crop yield in Estonia. Meteorologically possible yield (MPY), calculated by the model POMOD, is used to characterise potato crop yield. Data of three meteorological stations and the biological parameters of two potato sorts were applied to the model, and 73 different classifications of atmospheric circulation from catalogue 1.2 of COST 733, domain 05 are used to qualify circulation conditions. Correlation analysis showed that there is at least one circulation type in each of the classifications with at least one statistically significant (99%) correlation with potato crop yield, whether in Kuressaare, Tallinn or Tartu. However, no classifications with circulation types correlating with MPY in all three stations at the same time were revealed. Circulation types inducing a decrease in the potato crop yield are more clearly represented. Clear differences occurred between the observed geographical locations as well as between the seasons: derived from the number of significant circulation types, summer and Kuressaare stand out. Of potato varieties, late 'Anti' is more influenced by circulation. Analysis of MSLP maps of circulation types revealed that the seaside stations (Tallinn, Kuressaare) suffer from negative effects of anti-cyclonic conditions (drought), while Tartu suffers from the cyclonic activity (excessive water).

Relations between winter precipitation and atmospheric circulation simulated by the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory general circulation model

USGS Publications Warehouse

McCabe, G.J.; Dettinger, M.D.

1995-01-01

General circulation model (GCM) simulations of atmospheric circulation are more reliable than GCM simulations of temperature and precipitation. In this study, temporal correlations between 700 hPa height anomalies simulated winter precipitation at eight locations in the conterminous United States are compared with corresponding correlations in observations. The objectives are to 1) characterize the relations between atmospheric circulation and winter precipitation simulated by the GFDL, GCM for selected locations in the conterminous USA, ii) determine whether these relations are similar to those found in observations of the actual climate system, and iii) determine if GFDL-simulated precipitation is forced by the same circulation patterns as in the real atmosphere. -from Authors

Red Sea circulation during marine isotope stage 5e

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siccha, Michael; Biton, Eli; Gildor, Hezi

2015-04-01

We have employed a regional Massachusetts Institute of Technology oceanic general circulation model of the Red Sea to investigate its circulation during marine isotope stage (MIS) 5e, the peak of the last interglacial, approximately 125 ka before present. Compared to present-day conditions, MIS 5e was characterized by higher Northern Hemisphere summer insolation, accompanied by increases in air temperature of more than 2°C and global sea level approximately 8 m higher than today. As a consequence of the increased seasonality, intensified monsoonal conditions with increased winds, rainfall, and humidity in the Red Sea region are evident in speleothem records and supported by model simulations. To assess the dominant factors responsible for the observed changes, we conducted several sensitivity experiments in which the MIS 5 boundary conditions or forcing parameters were used individually. Overall, our model simulation for the last interglacial maximum reconstructs a Red Sea that is colder, less ventilated and probably more oligotrophic than at present day. The largest alteration in Red Sea circulation and properties was found for the simulation of the northward displacement and intensification of the African tropical rain belt during MIS 5e, leading to a notable increase in the fresh water flux into the Red Sea. Such an increase significantly reduced the Red Sea salinity and exchange volume of the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden. The Red Sea reacted to the MIS 5e insolation forcing by the expected increase in seasonal sea surface temperature amplitude and overall cooling caused by lower temperatures during deep water formation in winter.

Secondary Gravity Waves in the Winter Mesosphere: Results From a High-Resolution Global Circulation Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Becker, Erich; Vadas, Sharon L.

2018-03-01

This study analyzes a new high-resolution general circulation model with regard to secondary gravity waves in the mesosphere during austral winter. The model resolves gravity waves down to horizontal and vertical wavelengths of 165 and 1.5 km, respectively. The resolved mean wave drag agrees well with that from a conventional model with parameterized gravity waves up to the midmesosphere in winter and up to the upper mesosphere in summer. About half of the zonal-mean vertical flux of westward momentum in the southern winter stratosphere is due to orographic gravity waves. The high intermittency of the primary orographic gravity waves gives rise to secondary waves that result in a substantial eastward drag in the winter mesopause region. This induces an additional eastward maximum of the mean zonal wind at z ˜ 100 km. Radar and lidar measurements at polar latitudes and results from other high-resolution global models are consistent with this finding. Hence, secondary gravity waves may play a significant role in the general circulation of the winter mesopause region.

12 CFR 262.3 - Applications.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... published. Similarly, the Board will consider comments on an application from the Attorney General or a.... Such notice shall be published in a newspaper of general circulation in— (A) [Reserved] (B) The... published in a newspaper of general circulation in the community or communities in which the head office of...

Nonhydrostatic icosahedral atmospheric model (NICAM) for global cloud resolving simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Satoh, M.; Matsuno, T.; Tomita, H.; Miura, H.; Nasuno, T.; Iga, S.

2008-03-01

A new type of ultra-high resolution atmospheric global circulation model is developed. The new model is designed to perform "cloud resolving simulations" by directly calculating deep convection and meso-scale circulations, which play key roles not only in the tropical circulations but in the global circulations of the atmosphere. Since cores of deep convection have a few km in horizontal size, they have not directly been resolved by existing atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs). In order to drastically enhance horizontal resolution, a new framework of a global atmospheric model is required; we adopted nonhydrostatic governing equations and icosahedral grids to the new model, and call it Nonhydrostatic ICosahedral Atmospheric Model (NICAM). In this article, we review governing equations and numerical techniques employed, and present the results from the unique 3.5-km mesh global experiments—with O(10 9) computational nodes—using realistic topography and land/ocean surface thermal forcing. The results show realistic behaviors of multi-scale convective systems in the tropics, which have not been captured by AGCMs. We also argue future perspective of the roles of the new model in the next generation atmospheric sciences.

An Active Flow Circulation Controlled Flap Concept for General Aviation Aircraft Applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jones, Gregory S.; Viken, Sally A.; Washburn, Anthony E.; Jenkins, Luther N.; Cagle, C. Mark

2002-01-01

A recent focus on revolutionary aerodynamic concepts has highlighted the technology needs of general aviation and personal aircraft. New and stringent restrictions on these types of aircraft have placed high demands on aerodynamic performance, noise, and environmental issues. Improved high lift performance of these aircraft can lead to slower takeoff and landing speeds that can be related to reduced noise and crash survivability issues. Circulation Control technologies have been around for 65 years, yet have been avoided due to trade offs of mass flow, pitching moment, perceived noise etc. The need to improve the circulation control technology for general aviation and personal air-vehicle applications is the focus of this paper. This report will describe the development of a 2-D General Aviation Circulation Control (GACC) wing concept that utilizes a pulsed pneumatic flap.

Stability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation: A model intercomparison

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weaver, Andrew J.; Sedláček, Jan; Eby, Michael; Alexander, Kaitlin; Crespin, Elisabeth; Fichefet, Thierry; Philippon-Berthier, Gwenaëlle; Joos, Fortunat; Kawamiya, Michio; Matsumoto, Katsumi; Steinacher, Marco; Tachiiri, Kaoru; Tokos, Kathy; Yoshimori, Masakazu; Zickfeld, Kirsten

2012-10-01

The evolution of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) in 30 models of varying complexity is examined under four distinct Representative Concentration Pathways. The models include 25 Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) or Earth System Models (ESMs) that submitted simulations in support of the 5th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and 5 Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity (EMICs). While none of the models incorporated the additional effects of ice sheet melting, they all projected very similar behaviour during the 21st century. Over this period the strength of MOC reduced by a best estimate of 22% (18%-25% 5%-95% confidence limits) for RCP2.6, 26% (23%-30%) for RCP4.5, 29% (23%-35%) for RCP6.0 and 40% (36%-44%) for RCP8.5. Two of the models eventually realized a slow shutdown of the MOC under RCP8.5, although no model exhibited an abrupt change of the MOC. Through analysis of the freshwater flux across 30°-32°S into the Atlantic, it was found that 40% of the CMIP5 models were in a bistable regime of the MOC for the duration of their RCP integrations. The results support previous assessments that it is very unlikely that the MOC will undergo an abrupt change to an off state as a consequence of global warming.

HEPPA-II model-measurement intercomparison project: EPP indirect effects during the dynamically perturbed NH winter 2008-2009

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Funke, Bernd; Ball, William; Bender, Stefan; Gardini, Angela; Harvey, V. Lynn; Lambert, Alyn; López-Puertas, Manuel; Marsh, Daniel R.; Meraner, Katharina; Nieder, Holger; Päivärinta, Sanna-Mari; Pérot, Kristell; Randall, Cora E.; Reddmann, Thomas; Rozanov, Eugene; Schmidt, Hauke; Seppälä, Annika; Sinnhuber, Miriam; Sukhodolov, Timofei; Stiller, Gabriele P.; Tsvetkova, Natalia D.; Verronen, Pekka T.; Versick, Stefan; von Clarmann, Thomas; Walker, Kaley A.; Yushkov, Vladimir

2017-03-01

We compare simulations from three high-top (with upper lid above 120 km) and five medium-top (with upper lid around 80 km) atmospheric models with observations of odd nitrogen (NOx = NO + NO2), temperature, and carbon monoxide from seven satellite instruments (ACE-FTS on SciSat, GOMOS, MIPAS, and SCIAMACHY on Envisat, MLS on Aura, SABER on TIMED, and SMR on Odin) during the Northern Hemisphere (NH) polar winter 2008/2009. The models included in the comparison are the 3-D chemistry transport model 3dCTM, the ECHAM5/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) model, FinROSE, the Hamburg Model of the Neutral and Ionized Atmosphere (HAMMONIA), the Karlsruhe Simulation Model of the Middle Atmosphere (KASIMA), the modelling tools for SOlar Climate Ozone Links studies (SOCOL and CAO-SOCOL), and the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM4). The comparison focuses on the energetic particle precipitation (EPP) indirect effect, that is, the polar winter descent of NOx largely produced by EPP in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere. A particular emphasis is given to the impact of the sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) in January 2009 and the subsequent elevated stratopause (ES) event associated with enhanced descent of mesospheric air. The chemistry climate model simulations have been nudged toward reanalysis data in the troposphere and stratosphere while being unconstrained above. An odd nitrogen upper boundary condition obtained from MIPAS observations has further been applied to medium-top models. Most models provide a good representation of the mesospheric tracer descent in general, and the EPP indirect effect in particular, during the unperturbed (pre-SSW) period of the NH winter 2008/2009. The observed NOx descent into the lower mesosphere and stratosphere is generally reproduced within 20 %. Larger discrepancies of a few model simulations could be traced back either to the impact of the models' gravity wave drag scheme on the polar wintertime meridional circulation or to a combination of prescribed NOx mixing ratio at the uppermost model layer and low vertical resolution. In March-April, after the ES event, however, modelled mesospheric and stratospheric NOx distributions deviate significantly from the observations. The too-fast and early downward propagation of the NOx tongue, encountered in most simulations, coincides with a temperature high bias in the lower mesosphere (0.2-0.05 hPa), likely caused by an overestimation of descent velocities. In contrast, upper-mesospheric temperatures (at 0.05-0.001 hPa) are generally underestimated by the high-top models after the onset of the ES event, being indicative for too-slow descent and hence too-low NOx fluxes. As a consequence, the magnitude of the simulated NOx tongue is generally underestimated by these models. Descending NOx amounts simulated with medium-top models are on average closer to the observations but show a large spread of up to several hundred percent. This is primarily attributed to the different vertical model domains in which the NOx upper boundary condition is applied. In general, the intercomparison demonstrates the ability of state-of-the-art atmospheric models to reproduce the EPP indirect effect in dynamically and geomagnetically quiescent NH winter conditions. The encountered differences between observed and simulated NOx, CO, and temperature distributions during the perturbed phase of the 2009 NH winter, however, emphasize the need for model improvements in the dynamical representation of elevated stratopause events in order to allow for a better description of the EPP indirect effect under these particular conditions.

Evaluation and Sensitivity Analysis of an Ocean Model Response to Hurricane Ivan (PREPRINT)

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-05-18

analysis of upper-limb meridional overturning circulation interior ocean pathways in the tropical/subtropical Atlantic . In: Interhemispheric Water...diminishing returns are encountered when either resolution is increased. 3 1. Introduction Coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models have become...northwest Caribbean Sea 4 and GOM. Evaluation is difficult because ocean general circulation models incorporate a large suite of numerical algorithms

Agro-Environmental Determinants of Avian Influenza Circulation: A Multisite Study in Thailand, Vietnam and Madagascar

PubMed Central

Paul, Mathilde C.; Gilbert, Marius; Desvaux, Stéphanie; Rasamoelina Andriamanivo, Harena; Peyre, Marisa; Khong, Nguyen Viet; Thanapongtharm, Weerapong; Chevalier, Véronique

2014-01-01

Outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza have occurred and have been studied in a variety of ecological systems. However, differences in the spatial resolution, geographical extent, units of analysis and risk factors examined in these studies prevent their quantitative comparison. This study aimed to develop a high-resolution, comparative study of a common set of agro-environmental determinants of avian influenza viruses (AIV) in domestic poultry in four different environments: (1) lower-Northern Thailand, where H5N1 circulated in 2004–2005, (2) the Red River Delta in Vietnam, where H5N1 is circulating widely, (3) the Vietnam highlands, where sporadic H5N1 outbreaks have occurred, and (4) the Lake Alaotra region in Madagascar, which features remarkable similarities with Asian agro-ecosystems and where low pathogenic avian influenza viruses have been found. We analyzed H5N1 outbreak data in Thailand in parallel with serological data collected on the H5 subtype in Vietnam and on low pathogenic AIV in Madagascar. Several agro-environmental covariates were examined: poultry densities, landscape dominated by rice cultivation, proximity to a water body or major road, and human population density. Relationships between covariates and AIV circulation were explored using spatial generalized linear models. We found that AIV prevalence was negatively associated with distance to the closest water body in the Red River Delta, Vietnam highlands and Madagascar. We also found a positive association between AIV and duck density in the Vietnam highlands and Thailand, and with rice landscapes in Thailand and Madagascar. Our findings confirm the important role of wetlands-rice-ducks ecosystems in the epidemiology of AI in diverse settings. Variables influencing circulation of the H5 subtype in Southeast Asia played a similar role for low pathogenic AIV in Madagascar, indicating that this area may be at risk if a highly virulent strain is introduced. PMID:25029441

Agro-environmental determinants of avian influenza circulation: a multisite study in Thailand, Vietnam and Madagascar.

PubMed

Paul, Mathilde C; Gilbert, Marius; Desvaux, Stéphanie; Andriamanivo, Harena Rasamoelina; Peyre, Marisa; Khong, Nguyen Viet; Thanapongtharm, Weerapong; Chevalier, Véronique

2014-01-01

Outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza have occurred and have been studied in a variety of ecological systems. However, differences in the spatial resolution, geographical extent, units of analysis and risk factors examined in these studies prevent their quantitative comparison. This study aimed to develop a high-resolution, comparative study of a common set of agro-environmental determinants of avian influenza viruses (AIV) in domestic poultry in four different environments: (1) lower-Northern Thailand, where H5N1 circulated in 2004-2005, (2) the Red River Delta in Vietnam, where H5N1 is circulating widely, (3) the Vietnam highlands, where sporadic H5N1 outbreaks have occurred, and (4) the Lake Alaotra region in Madagascar, which features remarkable similarities with Asian agro-ecosystems and where low pathogenic avian influenza viruses have been found. We analyzed H5N1 outbreak data in Thailand in parallel with serological data collected on the H5 subtype in Vietnam and on low pathogenic AIV in Madagascar. Several agro-environmental covariates were examined: poultry densities, landscape dominated by rice cultivation, proximity to a water body or major road, and human population density. Relationships between covariates and AIV circulation were explored using spatial generalized linear models. We found that AIV prevalence was negatively associated with distance to the closest water body in the Red River Delta, Vietnam highlands and Madagascar. We also found a positive association between AIV and duck density in the Vietnam highlands and Thailand, and with rice landscapes in Thailand and Madagascar. Our findings confirm the important role of wetlands-rice-ducks ecosystems in the epidemiology of AI in diverse settings. Variables influencing circulation of the H5 subtype in Southeast Asia played a similar role for low pathogenic AIV in Madagascar, indicating that this area may be at risk if a highly virulent strain is introduced.

Assessment of impacts of climate change on surface water availability using coupled SWAT and WEAP models: case of upper Pangani River Basin, Tanzania

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kishiwa, Peter; Nobert, Joel; Kongo, Victor; Ndomba, Preksedis

2018-05-01

This study was designed to investigate the dynamics of current and future surface water availability for different water users in the upper Pangani River Basin under changing climate. A multi-tier modeling technique was used in the study, by coupling the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and Water Evaluation And Planning (WEAP) models, to simulate streamflows under climate change and assess scenarios of future water availability to different socio-economic activities by year 2060. Six common Global Circulation Models (GCMs) from WCRP-CMIP3 with emissions Scenario A2 were selected. These are HadCM3, HadGEM1, ECHAM5, MIROC3.2MED, GFDLCM2.1 and CSIROMK3. They were downscaled by using LARS-WG to station scale. The SWAT model was calibrated with observed data and utilized the LARS-WG outputs to generate future streamflows before being used as input to WEAP model to assess future water availability to different socio-economic activities. GCMs results show future rainfall increase in upper Pangani River Basin between 16-18 % in 2050s relative to 1980-1999 periods. Temperature is projected to increase by an average of 2 °C in 2050s, relative to baseline period. Long-term mean streamflows is expected to increase by approximately 10 %. However, future peak flows are estimated to be lower than the prevailing average peak flows. Nevertheless, the overall annual water demand in Pangani basin will increase from 1879.73 Mm3 at present (2011) to 3249.69 Mm3 in the future (2060s), resulting to unmet demand of 1673.8 Mm3 (51.5 %). The impact of future shortage will be more severe in irrigation where 71.12 % of its future demand will be unmet. Future water demands of Hydropower and Livestock will be unmet by 27.47 and 1.41 % respectively. However, future domestic water use will have no shortage. This calls for planning of current and future surface water use in the upper Pangani River Basin.

24 CFR 202.5 - General approval standards.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... years from the date that the materials are circulated or used to advertise. (3) Non-FHA-approved entities. A lender or mortgagee that accepts a loan application from a non-FHA-approved entity must confirm..., including, but not limited to, mergers, terminations, name, location, control of ownership, and character of...

24 CFR 202.5 - General approval standards.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... years from the date that the materials are circulated or used to advertise. (3) Non-FHA-approved entities. A lender or mortgagee that accepts a loan application from a non-FHA-approved entity must confirm..., including, but not limited to, mergers, terminations, name, location, control of ownership, and character of...

24 CFR 202.5 - General approval standards.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

... years from the date that the materials are circulated or used to advertise. (3) Non-FHA-approved entities. A lender or mortgagee that accepts a loan application from a non-FHA-approved entity must confirm..., including, but not limited to, mergers, terminations, name, location, control of ownership, and character of...

Origin and Variability of Upper Tropospheric Nitrogen Oxides and Ozone at Northern Mid-Latitudes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Grewe, V.; Brunner, D.; Dameris, M.; Grenfell, J. L.; Hein, R.; Shindell, D.; Staehelin, J.

1999-01-01

Measurements of NO(x) and ozone performed during the NOXAR project are compared with results from the coupled chemistry-climate models ECHAM4.L39(DLR)/CHEM and GISS-model. The measurements are based on flights between Europe and the East coast of America and between Europe and the Far East in the latitude range 40 deg N to 65 deg N. The comparison concentrates on tropopause altitudes and reveals strong longitudinal variations of seasonal mean NO,, of 200 pptv. Either model reproduced strong variations 3 km below but not at the tropopause, indicating a strong missing NO(x) or NO(y) sink over remote areas, e.g. NO(x) to HNO3 conversion by OH from additional OH sources or HNO3 wash-out. Vertical profiles show maximum NO(x) values 2-3 km below the tropopause with a strong seasonal cycle. ECHAM4.L39(DLR)/CHEM reproduces a maximum, although located at the tropopause with a less pronounced seasonal cycle, whereas the GISS model reproduces the seasonal cycle but not the profile's shape due to its coarser vertical resolution. A comparison of NO(x) frequency distributions reveals that both models are capable of reproducing the observed variability, except that ECHAM4.L39(DLR)/CHEM shows no very high NO(x) mixing ratios. Ozone mean values, vertical profiles and frequency distributions are much better reproduced in either model, indicating that the NO(x) frequency distribution, namely the most frequent NO(x) mixing ratio, is more important for the tropospheric photochemical ozone production than its mean value. Both models show that among all sources, NO(x) from lightning contributes most to the seasonal cycle of NO(x) at tropopause altitudes. The impact of lightning in the upper troposphere on NO(x) does not vary strongly with altitude, whereas the impact of surface emissions decreases with altitude. However, the models show significant differences in lightning induced NO(x) concentrations, especially in winter, which may be related to the different treatment of the lower stratospheric coupling between dynamics and chemistry.

Land-Climate Feedbacks in Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asharaf, Shakeel; Ahrens, Bodo

2016-04-01

In an attempt to identify how land surface states such as soil moisture influence the monsoonal precipitation climate over India, a series of numerical simulations including soil moisture sensitivity experiments was performed. The simulations were conducted with a nonhydrostatic regional climate model (RCM), the Consortium for Small-Scale Modeling (COSMO) in climate mode (CCLM) model, which was driven by the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Interim reanalysis (ERA-Interim) data. Results showed that pre-monsoonal soil moisture has a significant impact on monsoonal precipitation formation and large-scale atmospheric circulations. The analysis revealed that even a small change in the processes that influence precipitation via changes in local evapotranspiration was able to trigger significant variations in regional soil moisture-precipitation feedback. It was observed that these processes varied spatially from humid to arid regions in India, which further motivated an examination of soil-moisture memory variation over these regions and determination of the ISM seasonal forecasting potential. A quantitative analysis indicated that the simulated soil-moisture memory lengths increased with soil depth and were longer in the western region than those in the eastern region of India. Additionally, the subsequent precipitation variance explained by soil moisture increased from east to west. The ISM rainfall was further analyzed in two different greenhouse gas emission scenarios: the Special Report on Emissions Scenario (SRES: B1) and the new Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs: RCP4.5). To that end, the CCLM and its driving global-coupled atmospheric-oceanic model (GCM), ECHAM/MPIOM were used in order to understand the driving processes of the projected inter-annual precipitation variability and associated trends. Results inferred that the projected rainfall changes were the result of two largely compensating processes: increase of remotely induced precipitation and decrease of precipitation efficiency. However, the complementing precipitation components and their simulation uncertainties rendered climate projections of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall as an ongoing, highly ambiguous challenge for both the GCM and the RCM.

The transition of North Atlantic dust deposition and Saharan landscape during the Holocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Egerer, S.; Claussen, M.; Stanelle, T.; Reick, C. H.

2017-12-01

The sudden increase in North Atlantic dust deposition about 5 ka BP indicated by sediment records along the West African margin has been associated with an abrupt end of the African Humid Period (AHP). We perform several time slice simulations from 8 ka BP until the pre-industrial era to explore changes in the Holocene dust cycle. To do so, we use the coupled aerosol-climate model ECHAM6-HAM2 including interactive vegetation and dust, whereas ocean conditions and lakes are prescribed. The interactive coupling of vegetation, dust and atmosphere allows to set the dynamics of North Atlantic dust deposition in context to Holocene climate and landscape change in North Africa.In agreement with marine sediment records, we find an abrupt increase in simulated dust deposition at the location of the core sites roughly between 6 and 4 ka BP. Accordingly, dust emission in the North-west Sahara increases rapidly indicating that dust was transported by the same wind systems throughout the Holocene. The sudden increase in dust emission in the North-west Sahara is partly a consequence of a fast decline of vegetation cover from 22°N to 18°N due to vegetation-climate feedbacks and the rapid replacement of shrubs by grasses. Additionally, the prescribed strong but gradual reduction of lake surface area enforces accelerated dust release as former areas covered by lakes turn into highly productive dust sources. Changes in the Saharan landscape and dust emission south of 18°N and in the eastern Sahara as well as changes in atmospheric circulation play a minor role in driving the dynamics of North Atlantic dust deposition at the specific core sites. Our study emphasizes spatial and temporal differences in the transition of North African landscape implying that implications from local data records to large scales have to be treated with caution.

Predicting and attributing recent East African Spring droughts with dynamical-statistical climate model ensembles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Funk, C. C.; Shukla, S.; Hoerling, M. P.; Robertson, F. R.; Hoell, A.; Liebmann, B.

2013-12-01

During boreal spring, eastern portions of Kenya and Somalia have experienced more frequent droughts since 1999. Given the region's high levels of food insecurity, better predictions of these droughts could provide substantial humanitarian benefits. We show that dynamical-statistical seasonal climate forecasts, based on the latest generation of coupled atmosphere-ocean and uncoupled atmospheric models, effectively predict boreal spring rainfall in this area. Skill sources are assessed by comparing ensembles driven with full-ocean forcing with ensembles driven with ENSO-only sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Our analysis suggests that both ENSO and non-ENSO Indo-Pacific SST forcing have played an important role in the increase in drought frequencies. Over the past 30 years, La Niña drought teleconnections have strengthened, while non-ENSO Indo-Pacific convection patterns have also supported increased (decreased) Western Pacific (East African) rainfall. To further examine the relative contribution of ENSO, low frequency warming and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, we present decompositions of ECHAM5, GFS, CAM4 and GMAO AMIP simulations. These decompositions suggest that rapid warming in the western Pacific and steeper western-to-central Pacific SST gradients have likely played an important role in the recent intensification of the Walker circulation, and the associated increase in East African aridity. A linear combination of time series describing the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the strength of Indo-Pacific warming are shown to track East African rainfall reasonably well. The talk concludes with a few thoughts linking the potentially important interplay of attribution and prediction. At least for recent East African droughts, it appears that a characteristic Indo-Pacific SST and precipitation anomaly pattern can be linked statistically to support forecasts and attribution analyses. The combination of traditional AGCM attribution analyses with simple yet physically plausible statistical estimation procedures may help us better untangle some climate mysteries.

Extreme weather events in southern Germany - Climatological risk and development of a large-scale identification procedure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matthies, A.; Leckebusch, G. C.; Rohlfing, G.; Ulbrich, U.

2009-04-01

Extreme weather events such as thunderstorms, hail and heavy rain or snowfall can pose a threat to human life and to considerable tangible assets. Yet there is a lack of knowledge about present day climatological risk and its economic effects, and its changes due to rising greenhouse gas concentrations. Therefore, parts of economy particularly sensitve to extreme weather events such as insurance companies and airports require regional risk-analyses, early warning and prediction systems to cope with such events. Such an attempt is made for southern Germany, in close cooperation with stakeholders. Comparing ERA40 and station data with impact records of Munich Re and Munich Airport, the 90th percentile was found to be a suitable threshold for extreme impact relevant precipitation events. Different methods for the classification of causing synoptic situations have been tested on ERA40 reanalyses. An objective scheme for the classification of Lamb's circulation weather types (CWT's) has proved to be most suitable for correct classification of the large-scale flow conditions. Certain CWT's have been turned out to be prone to heavy precipitation or on the other side to have a very low risk of such events. Other large-scale parameters are tested in connection with CWT's to find out a combination that has the highest skill to identify extreme precipitation events in climate model data (ECHAM5 and CLM). For example vorticity advection in 700 hPa shows good results, but assumes knowledge of regional orographic particularities. Therefore ongoing work is focused on additional testing of parameters that indicate deviations of a basic state of the atmosphere like the Eady Growth Rate or the newly developed Dynamic State Index. Evaluation results will be used to estimate the skill of the regional climate model CLM concerning the simulation of frequency and intensity of the extreme weather events. Data of the A1B scenario (2000-2050) will be examined for a possible climate change signal.

Steering of Upper Ocean Currents and Fronts by the Topographically Constrained Abyssal Circulation

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-07-06

a) Mean surface dynamic height relative to 1000 m from version 2.5 of the Generalized Digital Environmental Model ( GDEM ) oceanic climatology, an...NLOM simulations in comparison to the mean surface dynamic height with respect to 1000 m from the Generalized Digital Environmental Model ( GDEM ...the Kuroshio pathway east of Japan, giving much better agreement with the pathway in the GDEM climatology. Dynamics of the topographic impact on

Aerosol specification in single-column Community Atmosphere Model version 5

DOE PAGES

Lebassi-Habtezion, B.; Caldwell, P. M.

2015-03-27

Single-column model (SCM) capability is an important tool for general circulation model development. In this study, the SCM mode of version 5 of the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM5) is shown to handle aerosol initialization and advection improperly, resulting in aerosol, cloud-droplet, and ice crystal concentrations which are typically much lower than observed or simulated by CAM5 in global mode. This deficiency has a major impact on stratiform cloud simulations but has little impact on convective case studies because aerosol is currently not used by CAM5 convective schemes and convective cases are typically longer in duration (so initialization is less important).more » By imposing fixed aerosol or cloud-droplet and crystal number concentrations, the aerosol issues described above can be avoided. Sensitivity studies using these idealizations suggest that the Meyers et al. (1992) ice nucleation scheme prevents mixed-phase cloud from existing by producing too many ice crystals. Microphysics is shown to strongly deplete cloud water in stratiform cases, indicating problems with sequential splitting in CAM5 and the need for careful interpretation of output from sequentially split climate models. Droplet concentration in the general circulation model (GCM) version of CAM5 is also shown to be far too low (~ 25 cm −3) at the southern Great Plains (SGP) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) site.« less

Climate model biases in jet streams, blocking and storm tracks resulting from missing orographic drag

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pithan, Felix; Shepherd, Theodore G.; Zappa, Giuseppe; Sandu, Irina

2016-07-01

State-of-the art climate models generally struggle to represent important features of the large-scale circulation. Common model deficiencies include an equatorward bias in the location of the midlatitude westerlies and an overly zonal orientation of the North Atlantic storm track. Orography is known to strongly affect the atmospheric circulation and is notoriously difficult to represent in coarse-resolution climate models. Yet how the representation of orography affects circulation biases in current climate models is not understood. Here we show that the effects of switching off the parameterization of drag from low-level orographic blocking in one climate model resemble the biases of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 ensemble: An overly zonal wintertime North Atlantic storm track and less European blocking events, and an equatorward shift in the Southern Hemispheric jet and increase in the Southern Annular Mode time scale. This suggests that typical circulation biases in coarse-resolution climate models may be alleviated by improved parameterizations of low-level drag.

Simulating Climate Change in Ireland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nolan, P.; Lynch, P.

2012-04-01

At the Meteorology & Climate Centre at University College Dublin, we are using the CLM-Community's COSMO-CLM Regional Climate Model (RCM) and the WRF RCM (developed at NCAR) to simulate the climate of Ireland at high spatial resolution. To address the issue of model uncertainty, a Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) approach is used. The ensemble method uses different RCMs, driven by several Global Climate Models (GCMs), to simulate climate change. Through the MME approach, the uncertainty in the RCM projections is quantified, enabling us to estimate the probability density function of predicted changes, and providing a measure of confidence in the predictions. The RCMs were validated by performing a 20-year simulation of the Irish climate (1981-2000), driven by ECMWF ERA-40 global re-analysis data, and comparing the output to observations. Results confirm that the output of the RCMs exhibit reasonable and realistic features as documented in the historical data record. Projections for the future Irish climate were generated by downscaling the Max Planck Institute's ECHAM5 GCM, the UK Met Office HadGEM2-ES GCM and the CGCM3.1 GCM from the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling. Simulations were run for a reference period 1961-2000 and future period 2021-2060. The future climate was simulated using the A1B, A2, B1, RCP 4.5 & RCP 8.5 greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Results for the downscaled simulations show a substantial overall increase in precipitation and wind speed for the future winter months and a decrease during the summer months. The predicted annual change in temperature is approximately 1.1°C over Ireland. To date, all RCM projections are in general agreement, thus increasing our confidence in the robustness of the results.

Impact of variations of gravitational acceleration on the general circulation of the planetary atmosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kilic, Cevahir; Raible, Christoph C.; Stocker, Thomas F.; Kirk, Edilbert

2017-01-01

Fundamental to the redistribution of energy in a planetary atmosphere is the general circulation and its meridional structure. We use a general circulation model of the atmosphere in an aquaplanet configuration with prescribed sea surface temperature and investigate the influence of the gravitational acceleration g on the structure of the circulation. For g =g0 = 9.81 ms-2 , three meridional cells exist in each hemisphere. Up to about g /g0 = 1.4 all cells increase in strength. Further increasing this ratio results in a weakening of the thermally indirect cell, such that a two- and finally a one-cell structure of the meridional circulation develops in each hemisphere. This transition is explained by the primary driver of the thermally direct Hadley cell: the diabatic heating at the equator which is proportional to g. The analysis of the energetics of the atmospheric circulation based on the Lorenz energy cycle supports this finding. For Earth-like gravitational accelerations transient eddies are primarily responsible for the meridional heat flux. For large gravitational accelerations, the direct zonal mean conversion of energy dominates the meridional heat flux.

Potential impacts of a future Grand Solar Minimum on decadal regional climate change and interannual hemispherical climate variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spiegl, Tobias; Langematz, Ulrike

2016-04-01

The political, technical and socio-economic developments of the next decades will determine the magnitude of 21st century climate change, since they are inextricably linked to future anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. To assess the range of uncertainty that is related to these developments, it is common to assume different emission scenarios for 21st climate projections. While the uncertainties associated with the anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing have been studied intensely, the contribution of natural climate drivers (particularly solar variability) to recent and future climate change are subject of intense debate. The past 1,000 years featured at least 5 excursions (lasting 60-100 years) of exceptionally low solar activity, induced by a weak magnetic field of the Sun, so called Grand Solar Minima. While the global temperature response to such a decrease in solar activity is assumed to be rather small, nonlinear mechanisms in the climate system might amplify the regional temperature signal. This hypothesis is supported by the last Grand Solar Minimum (the Maunder Minimum, 1645-1715) which coincides with the Little Ice Age, an epoch which is characterized by severe cold and hardship over Europe, North America and Asia. The long-lasting minimum of Solar Cycle 23 as well as the overall weak maximum of Cycle 24 reveal the possibility for a return to Grand Solar Minimum conditions within the next decades. The quantification of the implications of such a projected decrease in solar forcing is of ultimate importance, given the on-going public discussion of the role of carbon dioxide emissions for global warming, and the possible role a cooling due to decreasing solar activity could be ascribed to. Since there is still no clear consensus about the actual strength of the Maunder Minimum, we used 3 acknowledged solar reconstruction datasets that show significant differences in both, total solar irradiance (TSI) and spectral irradiance (SSI) to simulate a future Grand Solar Minimum under RCP6.0 conditions. The results obtained were compared to a RCP6.0 simulation that was carried out using the CCMI recommendations for a 21st century solar forcing. We used the ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) chemistry-climate model that incorporates interactive ozone chemistry, a high-resolution shortwave radiation scheme, a high model top (0.01 hPa) and is coupled to a 3D ocean general circulation model. We focused on the regional responses to a future Grand Solar Minimum and interannual variability patterns (i.e. the Northern and Southern Annular Mode (NAM/SAM)).

Regional climate simulations over complex topography using WRF: Andalusian present climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Argüeso, D.; Hidalgo-Muñoz, J. M.; Calandria-Hernández, D.; Gámiz-Fortis, S. R.; Esteban-Parra, M. J.; Castro-Díez, Y.

2010-09-01

In this study three WRF simulations were carried out and analyzed to assess its accuracy to describe the main climate features of Southern Spain in terms of maximum temperature, minimum temperature and precipitation. Present climate was represented by the last 30 year of the 20th Century (1970-1999). The model was evaluated using an observational network distributed throughout Andalusia that comprised both temperatures and precipitation. Since comparison between site-specific measurements and model grid points is definitely troublesome due to differences in spatial-scale, a multi-step regionalization strategy was adopted to upscale observational information. This is of particular importance when studying complex topography regions such as Andalusia, with a wide range of climate conditions in a relative small area. Additionally, WRF outputs were also compared with SPAIN02, a 20-km resolution gridded dataset of precipitation for further validation of the model performance. The model set up consisted in two domains with one-way nesting and spectral nudging. The target domain has a resolution of 10km with 136 by 136 points covering the whole Iberian Peninsula and nested in a coarser domain of 30-km resolution and 130 by 120 grid points. Both domains have 35 vertical levels. Three different driving data were used to provide the boundary conditions, one reanalysis (ERA-40) and two control runs from different General Circulation Models (ECHAM5 and CCSM 3.0). A conservative 7-month spin-up period was added to the 30-year simulation so that dependence on initial conditions can be completely removed. Physics options were chosen on the basis of previous parameterization sensitivity tests over Andalusia that led to a compromise configuration that adequately describes the different subclimates. Probability distributions of daily values as well as monthly statistics were examined to determine the uncertainties associated to each variable and take them into consideration for future regional high-resolution projections of climate change scenarios. These analyses permitted to conclude that WRF is an extremely useful tool due to the significant value-added information produced with respect to the driving data. Nonetheless, according to differences in performance between regions it has also been shown that results must be interpreted carefully depending on the region characteristics. Acknowledgements: The Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation, with additional support from the European Community Funds (FEDER), project CGL2007-61151/CLI, and the Regional Government of Andalusia project P06-RNM-01622, have financed this study.

10Be in ice at high resolution: Solar activity and climate signals observed and GCM-modeled in Law Dome ice cores

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pedro, Joel; Heikkilä, Ulla; van Ommen, T. D.; Smith, A. M.

2010-05-01

Changes in solar activity modulate the galactic cosmic ray flux, and in turn, the production rate of 10Be in the earth's atmosphere. The best archives of past changes in 10Be production rate are the polar ice cores. Key challenges in interpreting these archives as proxies for past solar activity lie in separating the useful solar activity (or production) signal from the interfering meteorological (or climate) signal, and furthermore, in determining the atmospheric source regions of 10Be deposited to the ice core site. In this study we use a new monthly resolution composite 10Be record, which spans the past decade, and a general circulation model (ECHAM5-HAM), to constrain both the production and climate signals in 10Be concentrations at the Law Dome ice core site, East Antarctica. This study differs from most previous work on 10Be in Antarctica due to the very high sample resolution achieved. This high resolution, through a time period where accurate instrumental measurements of solar activity and climate are available, allows us to examine the response of 10Be concentrations in ice to short-term (monthly to annual) variations in solar activity, and to short-term variations in climate, including seasonality. We find a significant correlation (r2 = 0.56, P < 0.005, n = 92) between observed 10Be concentrations and solar activity (represented by the neutron counting rate). The most pervasive climate influence is a seasonal cycle, which shows maximum concentrations in mid-to-late-summer and minimum concentrations in winter. Model results show reasonable agreement with observations; both a solar activity signal and seasonal cycle in 10Be are captured. However, the modeled snow accumulation rate is too high by approximately 60%. According to the model, the main atmospheric source region of 10Be deposited to Law Dome is the 30-90°S stratosphere (~50%), followed by the 30-90°S troposphere (~30%). An enhancement in the fraction of 10Be arriving to Law Dome from the stratosphere is found by the model during the mid-to-late summer, we suggest this pattern is implicated in the seasonality of observed 10Be concentrations in ice. Our results have implications for interpretation of longer term records of 10Be from ice cores. Firstly, the strong production signal supports the use of 10Be as a solar proxy. Secondly, the short term climate processes operating here, may provide clues to how longer term shifts in climate impact on ice core 10Be.

Influence of prolonged Anomalies in North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature on Winter Windstorms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Höschel, Ines; Schuster, Mareike; Grieger, Jens; Ulbrich, Uwe

2016-04-01

The focus of this presentation is on decadal scale variations in the frequency and in the intensity of mid-latitude winter windstorms. Projections for the end of the next century are often beyond the time horizon of business, thus there is an increasing interest on decadal prediction, especially for infrastructural planning and in the insurance industry. One source of decadal predictability is the Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV), a change in the sea surface temperature of the North Atlantic, strongly linked to the meridional overturning circulation. Correlation patterns between annual AMV-indices and annual mean of geopotential height at 500 hPa in reanalysis data show an anti-correlation in the North Atlantic. That is, during AMV warm phases the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is more negative. Consequently, AMV should influence the characteristics of winter windstorms at multi-year scales. For the presented investigations a 10-member ensemble of 38-year-long idealized simulations with the atmosphere model ECHAM6 with lower boundary conditions, representing warm and cool phases of the AMV, is used. In the idealized simulations, the anti-correlation between AMV and NAO is well represented. For the identification of winter windstorms an objective wind tracking algorithm based on the exceedance of the local 98th percentile of 10m wind speed is applied. Storms under AMV-warm and AMV-cool conditions will be compared in terms of storm track density and probability distribution of storm characteristics.

Balanced and Unbalanced Aspects of Tropical Cyclone Intensification

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-10-06

axisymmetric balance theory. The secondary ( overturning ) circulation and balanced tendency for the primary circulation are obtained by solving a...balance theory. The secondary ( overturning ) circulation and balanced tendency for the primary circulation are obtained by solving a general form of the... meridional circulation . This equation is often referred to as the Sawyer–Eliassen (SE) equation (Willoughby, 1979; Shapiro and Willoughby, 1982). For

The influence of the tropics upon the prediction of the Southern Hemisphere circulation within the GLAS GCM. [Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheric Sciences General Circulation Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Baker, W. E.; Paegle, J.

1983-01-01

An examination is undertaken of the sensitivity of short term Southern Hemisphere circulation prediction to tropical wind data and tropical latent heat release. The data assimilation experiments employ the Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheric Sciences' fourth-order general circulation model. Two of the experiments are identical, but for the fact that one uses tropical wind data while the other does not. A third experiment contains the identical initial conditions of forecasts with tropical winds, while suppressing tropical latent heat release.

Groundwater-saline lakes interaction - The contribution of saline groundwater circulation to solute budget of saline lakes: a lesson from the Dead Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kiro, Yael; Weinstein, Yishai; Starinsky, Abraham; Yechieli, Yoseph

2013-04-01

Saline lakes act as base level for both surface water and groundwater. Thus, a change in lake levels is expected to result in changes in the hydrogeological system in its vicinity, exhibited in groundwater levels, location of the fresh-saline water interface, sub-lacustrine groundwater discharge (SGD) and saline water circulation. All these processes were observed in the declining Dead Sea system, whose water level dropped by ~35 meters in the last 50 years. This work focuses mainly on the effect of circulation of Dead Sea water in the aquifer, which continues even in this very rapid base level drop. In general, seawater circulation in coastal aquifers is now recognized as a major process affecting trace element mass balances in coastal areas. Estimates of submarine groundwater discharge (SGD) vary over several orders of magnitude (1-1000000 m3/yr per meter shoreline). These estimates are sensitive to fresh-saline SGD ratios and to the temporal and spatial scales of the circulation. The Dead Sea system is an excellent natural field lab for studying seawater-groundwater interaction and large-scale circulation due to the absence of tides and to the minor role played by waves. During Dead Sea water circulation in the aquifer several geochemical reactions occur, ranging from short-term adsorption-desorption reactions and up to long-term precipitation and dissolution reactions. These processes affect the trace element distribution in the saline groundwater. Barite and celestine, which are supersaturated in the lake water, precipitate during circulation in the aquifer, reducing barium (from 5 to 1.5 mg/L), strontium (from 350 to 300 mg/L) and the long-lived 226Ra (from 145 to 60 dpm/L) in the saline groundwater. Redox-controlled reactions cause a decrease in uranium from 2.4 to 0.1 μg/L, and an increase in iron from 1 to 13 mg/L. 228Ra (t1/2=5.75 yr) activity in the Dead Sea is ~1 dpm/L and increase gradually as the saline water flows further inland until reaching steady-state activities (~27 dpm/L) with the aquifer sediments. The decrease in 226Ra and increase in 228Ra in the circulation process provide a robust method for calculating the amount of Dead Sea water circulating in the aquifer. This process can affect trace element concentrations in the Dead Sea and emphasize the potential of long-term seawater circulation in mass balances of saline water bodies.

Multimillennium changes in dissolved oxygen under global warming: results from an AOGCM and offline ocean biogeochemical model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yamamoto, A.; Abe-Ouchi, A.; Shigemitsu, M.; Oka, A.; Takahashi, K.; Ohgaito, R.; Yamanaka, Y.

2016-12-01

Long-term oceanic oxygen change due to global warming is still unclear; most future projections (such as CMIP5) are only performed until 2100. Indeed, few previous studies using conceptual models project oxygen change in the next thousands of years, showing persistent global oxygen reduction by about 30% in the next 2000 years, even after atmospheric carbon dioxide stops rising. Yet, these models cannot sufficiently represent the ocean circulation change: the key driver of oxygen change. Moreover, considering serious effect oxygen reduction has on marine life and biogeochemical cycling, long-term oxygen change should be projected for higher validity. Therefore, we used a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) and an offline ocean biogeochemical model, investigating realistic long-term changes in oceanic oxygen concentration and ocean circulation. We integrated these models for 2000 years under atmospheric CO2 doubling and quadrupling. After global oxygen reduction in the first 500 years, oxygen concentration in deep ocean globally recovers and overshoots, despite surface oxygen decrease and weaker Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. Deep ocean convection in the Weddell Sea recovers and overshoots, after initial cessation. Thus, enhanced deep convection and associated Antarctic Bottom Water supply oxygen-rich surface waters to deep ocean, resulting global deep ocean oxygenation. We conclude that the change in ocean circulation in the Southern Ocean potentially drives millennial-scale oxygenation in the deep ocean; contrary to past reported long-term oxygen reduction and general expectation. In presentation, we will discuss the mechanism of response of deep ocean convection in the Weddell Sea and show the volume changes of hypoxic waters.

Simulation of the global ocean thermohaline circulation with an eddy-resolving INMIO model configuration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ushakov, K. V.; Ibrayev, R. A.

2017-11-01

In this paper, the first results of a simulation of the mean World Ocean thermohaline characteristics obtained by the INMIO ocean general circulation model configured with 0.1 degree resolution in a 5-year long numerical experiment following the CORE-II protocol are presented. The horizontal and zonal mean distributions of the solution bias against the WOA09 data are analyzed. The seasonal cycle of heat content at a specified site of the North Atlantic is also discussed. The simulation results demonstrate a clear improvement in the quality of representation of the upper ocean compared to the results of experiments with 0.5 and 0.25 degree model configurations. Some remaining biases of the model solution and possible ways of their overcoming are highlighted.

The thermal environment of the human being on the global scale

PubMed Central

Jendritzky, Gerd; Tinz, Birger

2009-01-01

Background The close relationship between human health, performance, well-being and the thermal environment is obvious. Nevertheless, most studies of climate and climate change impacts show amazing shortcomings in the assessment of the environment. Populations living in different climates have different susceptibilities, due to socio-economic reasons, and different customary behavioural adaptations. The global distribution of risks of hazardous thermal exposure has not been analysed before. Objective To produce maps of the baseline and future bioclimate that allows a direct comparison of the differences in the vulnerability of populations to thermal stress across the world. Design The required climatological data fields are obtained from climate simulations with the global General Circulation Model ECHAM4 in T106-resolution. For the thermo-physiologically relevant assessment of these climate data a complete heat budget model of the human being, the ‘Perceived Temperature’ procedure has been applied which already comprises adaptation by clothing to a certain degree. Short-term physiological acclimatisation is considered via Health Related Assessment of the Thermal Environment. Results The global maps 1971–1980 (control run, assumed as baseline climate) show a pattern of thermal stress intensities as frequencies of heat. The heat load for people living in warm–humid climates is the highest. Climate change will lead to clear differences in health-related thermal stress between baseline climate and the future bioclimate 2041–2050 based on the ‘business-as-usual’ greenhouse gas scenario IS92a. The majority of the world's population will be faced with more frequent and more intense heat strain in spite of an assumed level of acclimatisation. Further adaptation measures are crucial in order to reduce the vulnerability of the populations. Conclusions This bioclimatology analysis provides a tool for various questions in climate and climate change impact research. Considerations of regional or local scale require climate simulations with higher resolution. As adaptation is the key term in understanding the role of climate/climate change for human health, performance and well-being, further research in this field is crucial. PMID:20052427

Feasibility study: Atmospheric general circulation experiment, volume 2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Homsey, R. J. (Editor)

1981-01-01

The feasibility analysis of the atmospheric general circulation experiment (AGCE) are documented. The analysis performed in each technical area, the rationale and substantiation for the design approaches selected for the hardware, and the design details for the baseline AGCE are presented.

Vertical Helicity Flux as an Index of General Atmospheric Circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kurgansky, M. V.; Maksimenkov, L. O.; Khapaev, A. A.; Chkhetiani, O. G.

2018-04-01

As an index of the general atmospheric circulation over the hemisphere, it is proposed to calculate the hemisphere-area-averaged (poleward of the latitude 20°) product of the Coriolis parameter by the wind velocity squared at the upper boundary of the planetary boundary layer. In practical calculations, data on the wind velocity at an isobaric level of 850 hPa were used. Control calculations for the 900 hPa level gave similar results. It is shown that the index introduced adequately characterizes the seasonal and interannual variability of the general atmospheric circulation over both hemispheres.

The Mars Climate Database (MCD version 5.2)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Millour, E.; Forget, F.; Spiga, A.; Navarro, T.; Madeleine, J.-B.; Montabone, L.; Pottier, A.; Lefevre, F.; Montmessin, F.; Chaufray, J.-Y.; Lopez-Valverde, M. A.; Gonzalez-Galindo, F.; Lewis, S. R.; Read, P. L.; Huot, J.-P.; Desjean, M.-C.; MCD/GCM development Team

2015-10-01

The Mars Climate Database (MCD) is a database of meteorological fields derived from General Circulation Model (GCM) numerical simulations of the Martian atmosphere and validated using available observational data. The MCD includes complementary post-processing schemes such as high spatial resolution interpolation of environmental data and means of reconstructing the variability thereof. We have just completed (March 2015) the generation of a new version of the MCD, MCD version 5.2

Numerical Issues Associated with Compensating and Competing Processes in Climate Models: an Example from ECHAM-HAM

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wan, Hui; Rasch, Philip J.; Zhang, Kai

2013-06-26

The purpose of this paper is to draw attention to the need for appropriate numerical techniques to represent process interactions in climate models. In two versions of the ECHAM-HAM model, different time integration methods are used to solve the sulfuric acid (H2SO4) gas evolution equation, which lead to substantially different results in the H2SO4 gas concentration and the aerosol nucleation rate. Using convergence tests and sensitivity simulations performed with various time stepping schemes, it is confirmed that numerical errors in the second model version are significantly smaller than those in version one. The use of sequential operator splitting in combinationmore » with long time step is identified as the main reason for the large systematic biases in the old model. The remaining errors in version two in the nucleation rate, related to the competition between condensation and nucleation, have a clear impact on the simulated concentration of cloud condensation nuclei in the lower troposphere. These errors can be significantly reduced by employing an implicit solver that handles production, condensation and nucleation at the same time. Lessons learned in this work underline the need for more caution when treating multi-time-scale problems involving compensating and competing processes, a common occurrence in current climate models.« less

Circulation and Convection in the Irminger Sea

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-02-01

a preconditioning phase, which is contrary to general ex- pectations. Changes in the hemispheric air temperature, tracks of storms , flux of freshwater...53 3.5 Storm patterns . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57 3.6...of convection has important climatic impacts: Heat is released from the ocean to the atmo- sphere, which energizes the North Atlantic storm track and

Calibrating the ECCO ocean general circulation model using Green's functions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Menemenlis, D.; Fu, L. L.; Lee, T.; Fukumori, I.

2002-01-01

Green's functions provide a simple, yet effective, method to test and calibrate General-Circulation-Model(GCM) parameterizations, to study and quantify model and data errors, to correct model biases and trends, and to blend estimates from different solutions and data products.

Sensitivity studies of different aerosol indirect effects in mixed-phase clouds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lohmann, U.; Hoose, C.

2009-11-01

Aerosols affect the climate system by changing cloud characteristics. Using the global climate model ECHAM5-HAM, we investigate different aerosol effects on mixed-phase clouds: The glaciation effect, which refers to a more frequent glaciation due to anthropogenic aerosols, versus the de-activation effect, which suggests that ice nuclei become less effective because of an anthropogenic sulfate coating. The glaciation effect can partly offset the indirect aerosol effect on warm clouds and thus causes the total anthropogenic aerosol effect to be smaller. It is investigated by varying the parameterization for the Bergeron-Findeisen process and the threshold coating thickness of sulfate (SO4-crit), which is required to convert an externally mixed aerosol particle into an internally mixed particle. Differences in the net radiation at the top-of-the-atmosphere due to anthropogenic aerosols between the different sensitivity studies amount up to 0.5 W m-2. This suggests that the investigated mixed-phase processes have a major effect on the total anthropogenic aerosol effect.

Sensitivity studies of different aerosol indirect effects in mixed-phase clouds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lohmann, U.; Hoose, C.

2009-07-01

Aerosols affect the climate system by changing cloud characteristics. Using the global climate model ECHAM5-HAM, we investigate different aerosol effects on mixed-phase clouds: The glaciation effect, which refers to a more frequent glaciation due to anthropogenic aerosols, versus the de-activation effect, which suggests that ice nuclei become less effective because of an anthropogenic sulfate coating. The glaciation effect can partly offset the indirect aerosol effect on warm clouds and thus causes the total anthropogenic aerosol effect to be smaller. It is investigated by varying the parameterization for the Bergeron-Findeisen process and the threshold coating thickness of sulfate (SO4-crit), which is required to convert an externally mixed aerosol particle into an internally mixed particle. Differences in the net radiation at the top-of-the-atmosphere due to anthropogenic aerosols between the different sensitivity studies amount up to 0.5 W m-2. This suggests that the investigated mixed-phase processes have a major effect on the total anthropogenic aerosol effect.

General Anesthesia Inhibits the Activity of the “Glymphatic System”

PubMed Central

Gakuba, Clement; Gaberel, Thomas; Goursaud, Suzanne; Bourges, Jennifer; Di Palma, Camille; Quenault, Aurélien; Martinez de Lizarrondo, Sara; Vivien, Denis; Gauberti, Maxime

2018-01-01

INTRODUCTION: According to the “glymphatic system” hypothesis, brain waste clearance is mediated by a continuous replacement of the interstitial milieu by a bulk flow of cerebrospinal fluid (CSF). Previous reports suggested that this cerebral CSF circulation is only active during general anesthesia or sleep, an effect mediated by the dilatation of the extracellular space. Given the controversies regarding the plausibility of this phenomenon and the limitations of currently available methods to image the glymphatic system, we developed original whole-brain in vivo imaging methods to investigate the effects of general anesthesia on the brain CSF circulation. METHODS: We used magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and near-infrared fluorescence imaging (NIRF) after injection of a paramagnetic contrast agent or a fluorescent dye in the cisterna magna, in order to investigate the impact of general anesthesia (isoflurane, ketamine or ketamine/xylazine) on the intracranial CSF circulation in mice. RESULTS: In vivo imaging allowed us to image CSF flow in awake and anesthetized mice and confirmed the existence of a brain-wide CSF circulation. Contrary to what was initially thought, we demonstrated that the parenchymal CSF circulation is mainly active during wakefulness and significantly impaired during general anesthesia. This effect was especially significant when high doses of anesthetic agent were used (3% isoflurane). These results were consistent across the different anesthesia regimens and imaging modalities. Moreover, we failed to detect a significant change in the brain extracellular water volume using diffusion weighted imaging in awake and anesthetized mice. CONCLUSION: The parenchymal diffusion of small molecular weight compounds from the CSF is active during wakefulness. General anesthesia has a negative impact on the intracranial CSF circulation, especially when using a high dose of anesthetic agent. PMID:29344300

General Anesthesia Inhibits the Activity of the "Glymphatic System".

PubMed

Gakuba, Clement; Gaberel, Thomas; Goursaud, Suzanne; Bourges, Jennifer; Di Palma, Camille; Quenault, Aurélien; de Lizarrondo, Sara Martinez; Vivien, Denis; Gauberti, Maxime

2018-01-01

INTRODUCTION: According to the "glymphatic system" hypothesis, brain waste clearance is mediated by a continuous replacement of the interstitial milieu by a bulk flow of cerebrospinal fluid (CSF). Previous reports suggested that this cerebral CSF circulation is only active during general anesthesia or sleep, an effect mediated by the dilatation of the extracellular space. Given the controversies regarding the plausibility of this phenomenon and the limitations of currently available methods to image the glymphatic system, we developed original whole-brain in vivo imaging methods to investigate the effects of general anesthesia on the brain CSF circulation. METHODS: We used magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and near-infrared fluorescence imaging (NIRF) after injection of a paramagnetic contrast agent or a fluorescent dye in the cisterna magna, in order to investigate the impact of general anesthesia (isoflurane, ketamine or ketamine/xylazine) on the intracranial CSF circulation in mice. RESULTS: In vivo imaging allowed us to image CSF flow in awake and anesthetized mice and confirmed the existence of a brain-wide CSF circulation. Contrary to what was initially thought, we demonstrated that the parenchymal CSF circulation is mainly active during wakefulness and significantly impaired during general anesthesia. This effect was especially significant when high doses of anesthetic agent were used (3% isoflurane). These results were consistent across the different anesthesia regimens and imaging modalities. Moreover, we failed to detect a significant change in the brain extracellular water volume using diffusion weighted imaging in awake and anesthetized mice. CONCLUSION: The parenchymal diffusion of small molecular weight compounds from the CSF is active during wakefulness. General anesthesia has a negative impact on the intracranial CSF circulation, especially when using a high dose of anesthetic agent.

Improved Understanding of the Modeled QBO Using MLS Observations and MERRA Reanalysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Oman, Luke David; Douglass, Anne Ritger; Hurwitz, Maggie M.; Garfinkel, Chaim I.

2013-01-01

The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) dominates the variability of the tropical stratosphere on interannual time scales. The QBO has been shown to extend its influence into the chemical composition of this region through dynamical mechanisms. We have started our analysis using the realistic QBO internally generated by the Goddard Earth Observing System Version 5 (GEOS-5) general circulation model coupled to a comprehensive stratospheric and tropospheric chemical mechanism forced with observed sea surface temperatures over the past 33 years. We will show targeted comparisons with observations from NASAs Aura satellite Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) and the Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) reanalysis to provide insight into the simulation of the primary and secondary circulations associated with the QBO. Using frequency spectrum analysis and multiple linear regression we can illuminate the resulting circulations and deduce the strengths and weaknesses in their modeled representation. Inclusion of the QBO in our simulation improves the representation of the subtropical barriers and overall tropical variability. The QBO impact on tropical upwelling is important to quantify when calculating trends in sub-decadal scale datasets.

Ecosystem behavior at Bermuda Station [open quotes]S[close quotes] and ocean weather station [open quotes]India[close quotes]: A general circulation model and observational analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fasham, M.J.R.; Sarmiento, J.L.; Slater, R.D.

1993-06-01

One important theme of modern biological oceanography has been the attempt to develop models of how the marine ecosystem responds to variations in the physical forcing functions such as solar radiation and the wind field. The authors have addressed the problem by embedding simple ecosystem models into a seasonally forced three-dimensional general circulation model of the North Atlantic ocean. In this paper first, some of the underlying biological assumptions of the ecosystem model are presented, followed by an analysis of how well the model predicts the seasonal cycle of the biological variables at Bermuda Station s' and Ocean Weather Stationmore » India. The model gives a good overall fit to the observations but does not faithfully model the whole seasonal ecosystem model. 57 refs., 25 figs., 5 tabs.« less

Atmospheric and Oceanic Response to Southern Ocean Deep Convection Oscillations on Decadal to Centennial Time Scales in Climate Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martin, T.; Reintges, A.; Park, W.; Latif, M.

2014-12-01

Many current coupled global climate models simulate open ocean deep convection in the Southern Ocean as a recurring event with time scales ranging from a few years to centennial (de Lavergne et al., 2014, Nat. Clim. Ch.). The only observation of such event, however, was the occurrence of the Weddell Polynya in the mid-1970s, an open water area of 350 000 km2 within the Antarctic sea ice in three consecutive winters. Both the wide range of modeled frequency of occurrence and the absence of deep convection in the Weddell Sea highlights the lack of understanding concerning the phenomenon. Nevertheless, simulations indicate that atmospheric and oceanic responses to the cessation of deep convection in the Southern Ocean include a strengthening of the low-level atmospheric circulation over the Southern Ocean (increasing SAM index) and a reduction in the export of Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW), potentially masking the regional effects of global warming (Latif et al., 2013, J. Clim.; Martin et al., 2014, Deep Sea Res. II). It is thus of great importance to enhance our understanding of Southern Ocean deep convection and clarify the associated time scales. In two multi-millennial simulations with the Kiel Climate Model (KCM, ECHAM5 T31 atmosphere & NEMO-LIM2 ~2˚ ocean) we showed that the deep convection is driven by strong oceanic warming at mid-depth periodically overriding the stabilizing effects of precipitation and ice melt (Martin et al., 2013, Clim. Dyn.). Sea ice thickness also affects location and duration of the deep convection. A new control simulation, in which, amongst others, the atmosphere grid resolution is changed to T42 (~2.8˚), yields a faster deep convection flip-flop with a period of 80-100 years and a weaker but still significant global climate response similar to CMIP5 simulations. While model physics seem to affect the time scale and intensity of the phenomenon, the driving mechanism is a rather robust feature. Finally, we compare the atmospheric and oceanic responses among CMIP5 models. Since open ocean convection is the dominant mode of AABW formation in these models, the northward extent and strength of the AABW cell in the Atlantic correlates with the deep convection intensity but varies between models. Likewise, atmospheric response patterns outside the Southern Ocean region are not consistent among models.

Atmospheric Diabatic Heating in Different Weather States and the General Circulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rossow, William B.; Zhang, Yuanchong; Tselioudis, George

2016-01-01

Analysis of multiple global satellite products identifies distinctive weather states of the atmosphere from the mesoscale pattern of cloud properties and quantifies the associated diabatic heating/cooling by radiative flux divergence, precipitation, and surface sensible heat flux. The results show that the forcing for the atmospheric general circulation is a very dynamic process, varying strongly at weather space-time scales, comprising relatively infrequent, strong heating events by ''stormy'' weather and more nearly continuous, weak cooling by ''fair'' weather. Such behavior undercuts the value of analyses of time-averaged energy exchanges in observations or numerical models. It is proposed that an analysis of the joint time-related variations of the global weather states and the general circulation on weather space-time scales might be used to establish useful ''feedback like'' relationships between cloud processes and the large-scale circulation.

Thermospheric dynamics during November 21-22, 1981 - Dynamics Explorer measurements and thermospheric general circulation model predictions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Roble, R. G.; Killeen, T. L.; Spencer, N. W.; Heelis, R. A.; Reiff, P. H.

1988-01-01

Time-dependent aurora and magnetospheric convection parameterizations have been derived from solar wind and aurora particle data for November 21-22, 1981, and are used to drive the auroral and magnetospheric convection models that are embedded in the National Center for Atmospheric Research thermospheric general circulation model (TGCM). Neutral wind speeds and transition boundaries between the midlatitude solar-driven circulation and the high-latitude magnetospheric convection-driven circulation are examined on an orbit-by-orbit basis. The results show that TGCM-calculated winds and reversal boundary locations are in generally good agreement with Dynamics Explorer 2 measurements for the orbits studied. This suggests that, at least for this particular period of relatively moderate geomagnetic activity, the TGCM parameterizations on the eveningside of the auroral oval and polar cap are adequate.

Clarifying the Dynamics of the General Circulation: Phillips's 1956 Experiment.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lewis, John M.

1998-01-01

In the mid-1950s, amid heated debate over the physical mechanisms that controlled the known features of the atmosphere's general circulation, Norman Phillips simulated hemispheric motion on the high-speed computer at the Institute for Advanced Study. A simple energetically consistent model was integrated for a simulated time of approximately 1 month. Analysis of the model results clarified the respective roles of the synoptic-scale eddies (cyclones-anticyclones) and mean meridional circulation in the maintenance of the upper-level westerlies and the surface wind regimes. Furthermore, the modeled cyclones clearly linked surface frontogenesis with the upper-level Charney-Eady wave. In addition to discussing the model results in light of the controversy and ferment that surrounded general circulation theory in the 1940s-1950s, an effort is made to follow Phillips's scientific path to the experiment.

A Nonlinear Multigrid Solver for an Atmospheric General Circulation Model Based on Semi-Implicit Semi-Lagrangian Advection of Potential Vorticity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McCormick, S.; Ruge, John W.

1998-01-01

This work represents a part of a project to develop an atmospheric general circulation model based on the semi-Lagrangian advection of potential vorticity (PC) with divergence as the companion prognostic variable.

Assimilation of TOPEX/POSEIDON Altimeter Data into a Global Ocean Circulation Model: Are the Results Any Good?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fukumori, I.; Fu, L. L.; Chao, Y.

1998-01-01

The feasibility of assimilating satellite altimetry data into a global ocean general ocean general circulation model is studied. Three years of TOPEX/POSEIDON data is analyzed using a global, three-dimensional, nonlinear primitive equation model.

The 1-way on-line coupled model system MECO(n) - Part 4: Chemical evaluation (based on MESSy v2.52)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mertens, Mariano; Kerkweg, Astrid; Jöckel, Patrick; Tost, Holger; Hofmann, Christiane

2016-10-01

For the first time, a simulation incorporating tropospheric and stratospheric chemistry using the newly developed MECO(n) model system is performed. MECO(n) is short for MESSy-fied ECHAM and COSMO models nested n times. It features an online coupling of the COSMO-CLM model, equipped with the Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy) interface (called COSMO/MESSy), with the global atmospheric chemistry model ECHAM5/MESSy for Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC). This online coupling allows a consistent model chain with respect to chemical and meteorological boundary conditions from the global scale down to the regional kilometre scale. A MECO(2) simulation incorporating one regional instance over Europe with 50 km resolution and one instance over Germany with 12 km resolution is conducted for the evaluation of MECO(n) with respect to tropospheric gas-phase chemistry. The main goal of this evaluation is to ensure that the chemistry-related MESSy submodels and the online coupling with respect to the chemistry are correctly implemented. This evaluation is a prerequisite for the further usage of MECO(n) in atmospheric chemistry-related studies. Results of EMAC and the two COSMO/MESSy instances are compared with satellite, ground-based and aircraft in situ observations, focusing on ozone, carbon monoxide and nitrogen dioxide. Further, the methane lifetimes in EMAC and the two COSMO/MESSy instances are analysed in view of the tropospheric oxidation capacity. From this evaluation, we conclude that the chemistry-related submodels and the online coupling with respect to the chemistry are correctly implemented. In comparison with observations, both EMAC and COSMO/MESSy show strengths and weaknesses. Especially in comparison to aircraft in situ observations, COSMO/MESSy shows very promising results. However, the amplitude of the diurnal cycle of ground-level ozone measurements is underestimated. Most of the differences between COSMO/MESSy and EMAC can be attributed to differences in the dynamics of both models, which are subject to further model developments.

Assessing the Tangent Linear Behaviour of Common Tracer Transport Schemes and Their Use in a Linearised Atmospheric General Circulation Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Holdaway, Daniel; Kent, James

2015-01-01

The linearity of a selection of common advection schemes is tested and examined with a view to their use in the tangent linear and adjoint versions of an atmospheric general circulation model. The schemes are tested within a simple offline one-dimensional periodic domain as well as using a simplified and complete configuration of the linearised version of NASA's Goddard Earth Observing System version 5 (GEOS-5). All schemes which prevent the development of negative values and preserve the shape of the solution are confirmed to have nonlinear behaviour. The piecewise parabolic method (PPM) with certain flux limiters, including that used by default in GEOS-5, is found to support linear growth near the shocks. This property can cause the rapid development of unrealistically large perturbations within the tangent linear and adjoint models. It is shown that these schemes with flux limiters should not be used within the linearised version of a transport scheme. The results from tests using GEOS-5 show that the current default scheme (a version of PPM) is not suitable for the tangent linear and adjoint model, and that using a linear third-order scheme for the linearised model produces better behaviour. Using the third-order scheme for the linearised model improves the correlations between the linear and non-linear perturbation trajectories for cloud liquid water and cloud liquid ice in GEOS-5.

Simulation of seasonal cloud forcing anomalies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Randall, D.A.

1990-08-01

One useful way to classify clouds is according to the processes that generate them. There are three main cloud-formation agencies: deep convection; surface evaporation; large-scale lifting in the absence of conditional instability. Although traditionally clouds have been viewed as influencing the atmospheric general circulation primarily through the release of latent heat, the atmospheric science literature contains abundant evidence that, in reality, clouds influence the general circulation through four more or less equally important effects: interactions with the solar and terrestrial radiation fields; condensation and evaporation; precipitation; small-scale circulations within the atmosphere. The most advanced of the current generation of GCMsmore » include parameterizations of all four effects. Until recently there has been lingering skepticism, in the general circulation modeling community, that the radiative effects of clouds significantly influence the atmospheric general circulation. GCMs have provided the proof that the radiative effects of clouds are important for the general circulation of the atmosphere. An important concept in analysis of the effects of clouds on climate is the cloud radiative forcing (CRF), which is defined as the difference between the radiative flux which actually occurs in the presence of clouds, and that which would occur if the clouds were removed but the atmospheric state were otherwise unchanged. We also use the term CRF to denote warming or cooling tendencies due to cloud-radiation interactions. Cloud feedback is the change in CRF that accompanies a climate change. The present study concentrates on the planetary CRF and its response to external forcing, i.e. seasonal change.« less

A Regression Study of Demand, Cost and Pricing Public Library Circulation Services.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stratton, Peter J.

This paper examines three aspects of the public library's circulation service: (1) a demand function for the service is estimated; (2) a long-run unit circulation cost curve is developed; and (3) using the economist's notion of "efficiency," a general model for the pricing of the circulation service is presented. The estimated demand…

Interhemispheric comparison of atmospheric circulation features as evaluated from Nimbus satellite data. A comparison of the structure and flow characteristics of the upper troposphere and stratosphere of the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. Ph.D. Thesis. Annual Report, 1 Nov. 1973 - 31 Oct. 1974

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Reiter, E. R.; Adler, R.; Fields, A.

1974-01-01

The general circulations of the Northern and Southern Hemispheres are compared with regard to the upper troposphere and stratosphere, using atmospheric structure obtained from multi-channel radiance data from the satellite infrared spectrometer instrument aboard the Nimbus 3 spacecraft. The inter-hemispheric comparisons are based on two months of data (one summer month and one winter month) in each hemisphere. Topics studied include: (1) mean meridional circulation in the Southern Hemisphere stratosphere; (2) magnitude and distribution of tropospheric eddy heat flux; (3) relative importance of standing and transient eddies in the two hemispheres; (4) magnitudes of energy cycle components; and (5) the relation of vortex structure to the breakdown climatology of the Antarctic stratospheric polar vortex.

40 CFR 93.156 - Public participation.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... placing a notice by prominent advertisement in a daily newspaper of general circulation in the area....158 for a Federal action by placing a notice by prominent advertisement in a daily newspaper of... placing a notice by prominent advertisement in a daily newspaper of general circulation in the area...

A Wind Tunnel Model to Explore Unsteady Circulation Control for General Aviation Applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cagle, Christopher M.; Jones, Gregory S.

2002-01-01

Circulation Control airfoils have been demonstrated to provide substantial improvements in lift over conventional airfoils. The General Aviation Circular Control model is an attempt to address some of the concerns of this technique. The primary focus is to substantially reduce the amount of air mass flow by implementing unsteady flow. This paper describes a wind tunnel model that implements unsteady circulation control by pulsing internal pneumatic valves and details some preliminary results from the first test entry.

Global climate change and potential effects on Pacific salmonids in freshwater ecosystems of southeast Alaska

Treesearch

M. D. Bryant

2009-01-01

General circulation models predict increases in air temperatures from 1ºC to 5ºC as atmospheric CO2 continues to rise during the next 100 years. Thermal regimes in freshwater ecosystems will change as air temperatures increase regionally. As air temperatures increase, the distribution and intensity of precipitation will change...

12 CFR 516.70 - Where must I publish the public notice?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 12 Banks and Banking 5 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Where must I publish the public notice? 516.70... PROCESSING PROCEDURES Publication Requirements § 516.70 Where must I publish the public notice? You must publish the notice in a newspaper having a general circulation in the communities indicated in the...

ENSO-related Interannual Variability of Southern Hemisphere Atmospheric Circulation: Assessment and Projected Changes in CMIP5 Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frederiksen, Carsten; Grainger, Simon; Zheng, Xiaogu; Sisson, Janice

2013-04-01

ENSO variability is an important driver of the Southern Hemisphere (SH) atmospheric circulation. Understanding the observed and projected changes in ENSO variability is therefore important to understanding changes in Australian surface climate. Using a recently developed methodology (Zheng et al., 2009), the coherent patterns, or modes, of ENSO-related variability in the SH atmospheric circulation can be separated from modes that are related to intraseasonal variability or to changes in radiative forcings. Under this methodology, the seasonal mean SH 500 hPa geopotential height is considered to consist of three components. These are: (1) an intraseasonal component related to internal dynamics on intraseasonal time scales; (2) a slow-internal component related to internal dynamics on slowly varying (interannual or longer) time scales, including ENSO; and (3) a slow-external component related to external (i.e. radiative) forcings. Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOFs) are used to represent the modes of variability of the interannual covariance of the three components. An assessment is first made of the modes in models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) dataset for the SH summer and winter seasons in the 20th century. In reanalysis data, two EOFs of the slow component (which includes the slow-internal and slow-external components) have been found to be related to ENSO variability (Frederiksen and Zheng, 2007). In SH summer, the CMIP5 models reproduce the leading ENSO mode very well when the structures of the EOF and the associated SST, and associated variance are considered. There is substantial improvement in this mode when compared with the CMIP3 models shown in Grainger et al. (2012). However, the second ENSO mode in SH summer has a poorly reproduced EOF structure in the CMIP5 models, and the associated variance is generally underestimated. In SH winter, the performance of the CMIP5 models in reproducing the structure and variance is similar for both ENSO modes, with the associated variance being generally underestimated. Projected changes in the modes in the 21st century are then investigated using ensembles of CMIP5 models that reproduce well the 20th century slow modes. The slow-internal and slow-external components are examined separately, allowing the projected changes in the response to ENSO variability to be separated from the response to changes in greenhouse gas concentrations. By using several ensembles, the model-dependency of the projected changes in the ENSO-related slow-internal modes is examined. Frederiksen, C. S., and X. Zheng, 2007: Variability of seasonal-mean fields arising from intraseasonal variability. Part 3: Application to SH winter and summer circulations. Climate Dyn., 28, 849-866. Grainger, S., C. S. Frederiksen, and X. Zheng, 2012: Modes of interannual variability of Southern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation in CMIP3 models: Assessment and Projections. Climate Dyn., in press. Zheng, X., D. M. Straus, C. S. Frederiksen, and S. Grainger, 2009: Potentially predictable patterns of extratropical tropospheric circulation in an ensemble of climate simulations with the COLA AGCM. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 135, 1816-1829.

The impact of oceanic heat transport on the atmospheric circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lucarini, Valerio; Lunkeit, Frank

2017-04-01

A general circulation model of intermediate complexity with an idealized Earth-like aquaplanet setup is used to study the impact of changes in the oceanic heat transport on the global atmospheric circulation. Focus is on the atmospheric mean meridional circulation and global thermodynamic properties. The atmosphere counterbalances to a large extent the imposed changes in the oceanic heat transport, but, nonetheless, significant modifications to the atmospheric general circulation are found. Increasing the strength of the oceanic heat transport up to 2.5 PW leads to an increase in the global mean near-surface temperature and to a decrease in its equator-to-pole gradient. For stronger transports, the gradient is reduced further, but the global mean remains approximately constant. This is linked to a cooling and a reversal of the temperature gradient in the tropics. Additionally, a stronger oceanic heat transport leads to a decline in the intensity and a poleward shift of the maxima of both the Hadley and Ferrel cells. Changes in zonal mean diabatic heating and friction impact the properties of the Hadley cell, while the behavior of the Ferrel cell is mostly controlled by friction. The efficiency of the climate machine, the intensity of the Lorenz energy cycle and the material entropy production of the system decline with increased oceanic heat transport. This suggests that the climate system becomes less efficient and turns into a state of reduced entropy production as the enhanced oceanic transport performs a stronger large-scale mixing between geophysical fluids with different temperatures, thus reducing the available energy in the climate system and bringing it closer to a state of thermal equilibrium.

Documentation of the GLAS fourth order general circulation model. Volume 1: Model documentation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kalnay, E.; Balgovind, R.; Chao, W.; Edelmann, J.; Pfaendtner, J.; Takacs, L.; Takano, K.

1983-01-01

The volume 1, of a 3 volume technical memoranda which contains a documentation of the GLAS Fourth Order General Circulation Model is presented. Volume 1 contains the documentation, description of the stratospheric/tropospheric extension, user's guide, climatological boundary data, and some climate simulation studies.

Seasonal surface circulation, temperature, and salinity in Prince William Sound, Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Musgrave, David L.; Halverson, Mark J.; Scott Pegau, W.

2013-02-01

Salinity, temperature, and depth profiles from 1973 to 2010 were used to construct a seasonal climatology of surface temperature, surface salinity, mixed layer depth (MLD), potential energy of mixing, and surface geostrophic circulation in Prince William Sound (PWS) and the adjacent Gulf of Alaska. Surface salinity is greatest in winter and least in summer due to the influence of increased freshwater runoff in summer. It is generally lowest in the northwest and highest in the Gulf of Alaska. The surface temperature is lowest in the winter and highest in the summer when surface heating is greatest, with little spatial variability across the Sound. The MLD is deepest in winter (9-27 m) and shallowest in summer (4-5 m). The work by winds was estimated from meteorological buoy data in central PWS and compared to the potential energy of mixing of the upper water column. The potential depth to which winds mix the upper water column was generally consistent with the MLD. The surface geostrophic circulation in the central Sound has: a southerly flow in the western central Sound in the winter; a closed, weak anticyclonic cell in spring; a closed, cyclonic cell in the summer; an open, cyclonic circulation in the fall. In the western passages, a southerly flow occurs in spring, summer, and fall. These results have important implications for oil spill response in PWS, the use of oil dispersants, and for comparison to numerical studies.

Numerical simulation of the circulation of the atmosphere of Titan

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hourdin, F.; Levan, P.; Talagrand, O.; Courtin, Regis; Gautier, Daniel; Mckay, Christopher P.

1992-01-01

A three dimensional General Circulation Model (GCM) of Titan's atmosphere is described. Initial results obtained with an economical two dimensional (2D) axisymmetric version of the model presented a strong superrotation in the upper stratosphere. Because of this result, a more general numerical study of superrotation was started with a somewhat different version of the GCM. It appears that for a slowly rotating planet which strongly absorbs solar radiation, circulation is dominated by global equator to pole Hadley circulation and strong superrotation. The theoretical study of this superrotation is discussed. It is also shown that 2D simulations systemically lead to instabilities which make 2D models poorly adapted to numerical simulation of Titan's (or Venus) atmosphere.

Cloud-radiative effects on implied oceanic energy transport as simulated by atmospheric general circulation models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gleckler, P. J.; Randall, D. A.; Boer, G.; Colman, R.; Dix, M.; Galin, V.; Helfand, M.; Kiehl, J.; Kitoh, A.; Lau, W.

1995-01-01

This paper summarizes the ocean surface net energy flux simulated by fifteen atmospheric general circulation models constrained by realistically-varying sea surface temperatures and sea ice as part of the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project. In general, the simulated energy fluxes are within the very large observational uncertainties. However, the annual mean oceanic meridional heat transport that would be required to balance the simulated surface fluxes is shown to be critically sensitive to the radiative effects of clouds, to the extent that even the sign of the Southern Hemisphere ocean heat transport can be affected by the errors in simulated cloud-radiation interactions. It is suggested that improved treatment of cloud radiative effects should help in the development of coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models.

Cyclonic circulation of Saturn's atmosphere due to tilted convection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Afanasyev, Y. D.; Zhang, Y.

2018-03-01

Saturn displays cyclonic vortices at its poles and the general atmospheric circulation at other latitudes is dominated by embedded zonal jets that display cyclonic circulation. The abundance of small-scale convective storms suggests that convection plays a role in producing and maintaining Saturn's atmospheric circulation. However, the dynamical influence of small-scale convection on Saturn's general circulation is not well understood. Here we present laboratory analogue experiments and propose that Saturn's cyclonic circulation can be explained by tilted convection in which buoyancy forces do not align with the planet's rotation axis. In our experiments—conducted with a cylindrical water tank that is heated at the bottom, cooled at the top and spun on a rotating table—warm rising plumes and cold sinking water generate small anticyclonic and cyclonic vortices that are qualitatively similar to Saturn's convective storms. Numerical simulations complement the experiments and show that this small-scale convection leads to large-scale cyclonic flow at the surface and anticyclonic circulation at the base of the fluid layer, with a polar vortex forming from the merging of smaller cyclonic storms that are driven polewards.

Observations and Modeling of the Transient General Circulation of the North Pacific Basin

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McWilliams, James C.

2000-01-01

Because of recent progress in satellite altimetry and numerical modeling and the accumulation and archiving of long records of hydrographic and meteorological variables, it is becoming feasible to describe and understand the transient general circulation of the ocean (i.e., variations with spatial scales larger than a few hundred kilometers and time scales of seasonal and longer-beyond the mesoscale). We have carried out various studies in investigation of the transient general circulation of the Pacific Ocean from a coordinated analysis of satellite altimeter data, historical hydrographic gauge data, scatterometer wind observations, reanalyzed operational wind fields, and a variety of ocean circulation models. Broadly stated, our goal was to achieve a phenomenological catalogue of different possible types of large-scale, low-frequency variability, as a context for understanding the observational record. The approach is to identify the simplest possible model from which particular observed phenomena can be isolated and understood dynamically and then to determine how well these dynamical processes are represented in more complex Oceanic General Circulation Models (OGCMs). Research results have been obtained on Rossby wave propagation and transformation, oceanic intrinsic low-frequency variability, effects of surface gravity waves, pacific data analyses, OGCM formulation and developments, and OGCM simulations of forced variability.

Stationary waves and slowly moving features in the night upper clouds of Venus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peralta, J.; Hueso, R.; Sánchez-Lavega, A.; Lee, Y. J.; Muñoz, A. García; Kouyama, T.; Sagawa, H.; Sato, T. M.; Piccioni, G.; Tellmann, S.; Imamura, T.; Satoh, T.

2017-08-01

At the cloud top level of Venus (65-70 km altitude) the atmosphere rotates 60 times faster than the underlying surface—a phenomenon known as superrotation1,2. Whereas on Venus's dayside the cloud top motions are well determined3,4,5,6 and Venus general circulation models predict the mean zonal flow at the upper clouds to be similar on both the day and nightside2, the nightside circulation remains poorly studied except for the polar region7,8. Here, we report global measurements of the nightside circulation at the upper cloud level. We tracked individual features in thermal emission images at 3.8 and 5.0 μm obtained between 2006 and 2008 by the Visible and Infrared Thermal Imaging Spectrometer-Mapper onboard Venus Express and in 2015 by ground-based measurements with the Medium-Resolution 0.8-5.5 Micron Spectrograph and Imager at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Infrared Telescope Facility. The zonal motions range from -110 to -60 m s-1, which is consistent with those found for the dayside but with larger dispersion6. Slow motions (-50 to -20 m s-1) were also found and remain unexplained. In addition, abundant stationary wave patterns with zonal speeds from -10 to +10 m s-1 dominate the night upper clouds and concentrate over the regions of higher surface elevation.

Plants and Photosynthesis: Level III, Unit 3, Lesson 1; The Human Digestive System: Lesson 2; Functions of the Blood: Lesson 3; Human Circulation and Respiration: Lesson 4; Reproduction of a Single Cell: Lesson 5; Reproduction by Male and Female Cells: Lesson 6; The Human Reproductive System: Lesson 7; Genetics and Heredity: Lesson 8; The Nervous System: Lesson 9; The Glandular System: Lesson 10. Advanced General Education Program. A High School Self-Study Program.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Manpower Administration (DOL), Washington, DC. Job Corps.

This self-study program for the high-school level contains lessons in the following subjects: Plants and Photosynthesis; The Human Digestive System; Functions of the Blood; Human Circulation and Respiration; Reproduction of a Single Cell; Reproduction by Male and Female Cells; The Human Reproductive System; Genetics and Heredity; The Nervous…

Plasma RNA integrity analysis: methodology and validation.

PubMed

Wong, Blenda C K; Lo, Y M Dennis

2006-09-01

The detection of cell-free RNA in plasma and serum of human subjects has found increasing applications in the field of medical diagnostics. However, many questions regarding the biology of circulating RNA remain to be addressed. One issue concerns the molecular nature of these circulating RNA species. We have recently developed a simple and quantitative method to investigate the integrity of plasma RNA. Our results have suggested that cell-free RNA in plasma is generally present as fragmented molecules instead of intact transcripts, with a predominance of 5' fragments. In this article, we summarize the basic principles in the experimental design for plasma RNA integrity analysis and highlight some of the important technical considerations for this type of investigation.

El Nino-southern oscillation simulated in an MRI atmosphere-ocean coupled general circulation model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nagai, T.; Tokioka, T.; Endoh, M.

A coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (GCM) was time integrated for 30 years to study interannual variability in the tropics. The atmospheric component is a global GCM with 5 levels in the vertical and 4[degrees]latitude X 5[degrees] longitude grids in the horizontal including standard physical processes (e.g., interactive clouds). The oceanic component is a GCM for the Pacific with 19 levels in the vertical and 1[degrees]x 2.5[degrees] grids in the horizontal including seasonal varying solar radiation as forcing. The model succeeded in reproducing interannual variations that resemble the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) with realistic seasonal variations in the atmospheric andmore » oceanic fields. The model ENSO cycle has a time scale of approximately 5 years and the model El Nino (warm) events are locked roughly in phase to the seasonal cycle. The cold events, however, are less evident in comparison with the El Nino events. The time scale of the model ENSO cycle is determined by propagation time of signals from the central-eastern Pacific to the western Pacific and back to the eastern Pacific. Seasonal timing is also important in the ENSO time scale: wind anomalies in the central-eastern Pacific occur in summer and the atmosphere ocean coupling in the western Pacific operates efficiently in the first half of the year.« less

Secondary ozone peaks in the troposphere over the Himalayas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ojha, Narendra; Pozzer, Andrea; Akritidis, Dimitris; Lelieveld, Jos

2017-06-01

Layers with strongly enhanced ozone concentrations in the middle-upper troposphere, referred to as secondary ozone peaks (SOPs), have been observed in different regions of the world. Here we use the global ECHAM5/MESSy atmospheric chemistry model (EMAC) to (i) investigate the processes causing SOPs, (ii) explore both their frequency of occurrence and seasonality, and (iii) assess their effects on the tropospheric ozone budget over the Himalayas. The vertical profiles of potential vorticity (PV) and a stratospheric ozone tracer (O3s) in EMAC simulations, in conjunction with the structure of SOPs, suggest that SOPs over the Himalayas are formed by stratosphere-to-troposphere transport (STT) of ozone. The spatial distribution of O3s further shows that such effects are in general most pronounced in the northern part of India. Model simulated ozone distributions and backward air trajectories show that ozone rich air masses, associated with STT, originate as far as northern Africa and the North Atlantic Ocean, the Middle East, as well as in nearby regions in Afghanistan and Pakistan, and are rapidly (within 2-3 days) transported to the Himalayas. Analysis of a 15-year (2000-2014) EMAC simulation shows that the frequency of SOPs is highest during the pre-monsoon season (e.g. 11 % of the time in May), while no intense SOP events are found during the July-October period. The SOPs are estimated to enhance the tropospheric column ozone (TCO) over the central Himalayas by up to 21 %.

Statistical downscaling and future scenario generation of temperatures for Pakistan Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kazmi, Dildar Hussain; Li, Jianping; Rasul, Ghulam; Tong, Jiang; Ali, Gohar; Cheema, Sohail Babar; Liu, Luliu; Gemmer, Marco; Fischer, Thomas

2015-04-01

Finer climate change information on spatial scale is required for impact studies than that presently provided by global or regional climate models. It is especially true for regions like South Asia with complex topography, coastal or island locations, and the areas of highly heterogeneous land-cover. To deal with the situation, an inexpensive method (statistical downscaling) has been adopted. Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM) employed for downscaling of daily minimum and maximum temperature data of 44 national stations for base time (1961-1990) and then the future scenarios generated up to 2099. Observed as well as Predictors (product of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) data were calibrated and tested on individual/multiple basis through linear regression. Future scenario was generated based on HadCM3 daily data for A2 and B2 story lines. The downscaled data has been tested, and it has shown a relatively strong relationship with the observed in comparison to ECHAM5 data. Generally, the southern half of the country is considered vulnerable in terms of increasing temperatures, but the results of this study projects that in future, the northern belt in particular would have a possible threat of increasing tendency in air temperature. Especially, the northern areas (hosting the third largest ice reserves after the Polar Regions), an important feeding source for Indus River, are projected to be vulnerable in terms of increasing temperatures. Consequently, not only the hydro-agricultural sector but also the environmental conditions in the area may be at risk, in future.

40 CFR 147.3101 - Public notice of permit actions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

..., the Director shall also publish notice in a daily or weekly newspaper of general circulation in the... requirements of § 124.10 of this chapter, the Director shall provide to the affected Tribal government all... permit, shall publish such notice in at least two newspapers of general circulation in the area of the...

On the design of an interactive biosphere for the GLAS general circulation model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mintz, Y.; Sellers, P. J.; Willmott, C. J.

1983-01-01

Improving the realism and accuracy of the GLAS general circulation model (by adding an interactive biosphere that will simulate the transfers of latent and sensible heat from land surface to atmosphere as functions of the atmospheric conditions and the morphology and physiology of the vegetation) is proposed.

Multiyear Serological Surveillance of Notifiable Influenza A Viruses in Belgian Poultry: A Retrospective Analysis.

PubMed

Marché, Sylvie; Houdart, Philippe; van den Berg, Thierry; Lambrecht, Bénédicte

2016-05-01

Surveillance of notifiable avian influenza (NAI) virus is mandatory in European member states, and each year a serological survey is performed to detect H5 and H7 circulation in poultry holdings. In Belgium, this serological monitoring is a combination of a stratified and a risk-based approach and is applied to commercial holdings with more than 200 birds. Moreover, a competitive nucleoprotein (NP) ELISA has been used as first screening method since 2010. A retrospective analysis of the serological monitoring performed from 2007 through 2013 showed sporadic circulation of notifiable low-pathogenicity avian influenza (LPAI) viruses in Belgian holdings with a fluctuating apparent flock seroprevalence according to years and species. Overall, the highest apparent flock seroprevalence was detected for the H5 subtype in domestic Anatidae, with 20%-50% for breeding geese and 4%-9% for fattening ducks. Positive serology against non-H5/H7 viruses was also observed in the same species with the use of the IDScreen influenza A antibody competition ELISA kit (ID-vet NP ELISA), and confirmed by isolation of H2, H3, H6, and H9 LPAI viruses. Among Galliformes, the apparent flock seroprevalence was lower, ranging between 0.3% and 1.3%. Circulation of notifiable LPAI viruses was only observed in laying hens with a similar seroprevalence for H5 and H7. Based on ID-vet NP ELISA results, no circulation of LPAI viruses, regardless the subtype, was observed in breeding chickens and fattening turkeys. Retrospectively, the use of an ELISA as first-line test not only reduced the number of hemagglutination inhibition tests to be performed, but also gave a broader evaluation of the prevalence of LPAI viruses in general, and might help to identify the most at-risk farms.

Multiyear Serological Surveillance of Notifiable Influenza A Viruses in Belgian Poultry: A Retrospective Analysis.

PubMed

Marché, Sylvie; Houdart, Philippe; van den Berg, Thierry; Lambrecht, Bénédicte

2015-12-01

Surveillance of notifiable avian influenza (NAI) virus is mandatory in European member states, and each year a serological survey is performed to detect H5 and H7 circulation in poultry holdings. In Belgium, this serological monitoring is a combination of a stratified and a risk-based approach and is applied to commercial holdings with more than 200 birds. Moreover, a competitive nucleoprotein (NP) ELISA has been used as first screening method since 2010. A retrospective analysis of the serological monitoring performed from 2007 through 2013 showed sporadic circulation of notifiable low-pathogenicity avian influenza (LPAI) viruses in Belgian holdings with a fluctuating apparent flock seroprevalence according to years and species. Overall, the highest apparent flock seroprevalence was detected for the H5 subtype in domestic Anatidae, with 20%-50% for breeding geese and 4%-9% for fattening ducks. Positive serology against non-H5/H7 viruses was also observed in the same species with the use of the IDScreen influenza A antibody competition ELISA kit (ID-vet NP ELISA), and confirmed by isolation of H2, H3, H6, and H9 LPAI viruses. Among Galliformes, the apparent flock seroprevalence was lower, ranging between 0.3% and 1.3%. Circulation of notifiable LPAI viruses was only observed in laying hens with a similar seroprevalence for H5 and H7. Based on ID-vet NP ELISA results, no circulation of LPAI viruses, regardless the subtype, was observed in breeding chickens and fattening turkeys. Retrospectively, the use of an ELISA as first-line test not only reduced the number of hemagglutination inhibition tests to be performed, but also gave a broader evaluation of the prevalence of LPAI viruses in general, and might help to identify the most at-risk farms.

Simulating the Snowball Stratosphere and Its Influence On CO2 Inference

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Graham, R. J.; Shaw, T.; Abbot, D. S.

2017-12-01

According to the snowball Earth hypothesis, a large quantity of CO2 must build up during an event in order to cause eventual deglaciation. One prediction of this model is a depletion in atmospheric oxygen-17 as a result of stratospheric chemical reactions, which has been observed in preserved barite minerals. This represents one of the most dramatic and compelling pieces of evidence in support of the snowball Earth hypothesis. The inference of anomalous atmospheric oxygen-17 based on measurements of barite minerals, however, was made by assuming that the stratosphere-troposphere mass exchange rate and mixing within the stratosphere were the same as the present. In this contribution we test these assumptions with simulations of modern and snowball atmospheric conditions using the global climate model ECHAM5. Our simulations are still running, but we will have results to report by December.

Large-Scale Circulation and Climate Variability. Chapter 5

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Perlwitz, J.; Knutson, T.; Kossin, J. P.; LeGrande, A. N.

2017-01-01

The causes of regional climate trends cannot be understood without considering the impact of variations in large-scale atmospheric circulation and an assessment of the role of internally generated climate variability. There are contributions to regional climate trends from changes in large-scale latitudinal circulation, which is generally organized into three cells in each hemisphere-Hadley cell, Ferrell cell and Polar cell-and which determines the location of subtropical dry zones and midlatitude jet streams. These circulation cells are expected to shift poleward during warmer periods, which could result in poleward shifts in precipitation patterns, affecting natural ecosystems, agriculture, and water resources. In addition, regional climate can be strongly affected by non-local responses to recurring patterns (or modes) of variability of the atmospheric circulation or the coupled atmosphere-ocean system. These modes of variability represent preferred spatial patterns and their temporal variation. They account for gross features in variance and for teleconnections which describe climate links between geographically separated regions. Modes of variability are often described as a product of a spatial climate pattern and an associated climate index time series that are identified based on statistical methods like Principal Component Analysis (PC analysis), which is also called Empirical Orthogonal Function Analysis (EOF analysis), and cluster analysis.

Arctic Ocean Pathways in the 21st century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aksenov, Yevgeny; van Gennip, Simon J.; Kelly, Stephen J.; Popova, Ekaterina E.; Yool, Andrew

2017-04-01

In the last three decades, changes in the Arctic environment have been occurring at an increasing rate. The opening up of large areas of previously sea ice-covered ocean affects the marine environment with potential impacts on Arctic ecosystems, including through changes in Arctic access, industries and societies. Changes to sea ice and surface winds result in large-scale shifts in ocean circulation and oceanic pathways. This study presents a high-resolution analysis of the projected ocean circulation and pathways of the Arctic water masses across the 21st century. The analysis is based on an eddy-permitting high-resolution global simulation of the ocean general circulation model NEMO (Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean) at the 1/4-degree horizontal resolution. The atmospheric forcing is from HadGEM2-ES model output from IPCC Assessment Report 5 (AR5) simulations performed for Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5), and follow the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario. During the 21st century the AO experiences a significant warming, with sea surface temperature increased by in excess of 4 deg. C. Annual mean Arctic sea ice thickness drops to less than 0.5m, and the Arctic Ocean is ice-free in summer from the mid-century. We use an off-line tracer technique to investigate Arctic pathways of the Atlantic and Pacific waters (AW and PW respectively) under this future climate. The AW tracers have been released in the eastern Fram Strait and in the western Barents Sea, whereas the PW tracer has been seeded in the Bering Strait. In the second half of the century the upper 1000 m ocean circulation shows a reduction in the eastward AW flow along the continental slopes towards the Makarov and Canada basins and a deviation of the PW flow away from the Beaufort Sea towards the Siberian coast. Strengthening of Arctic boundary current and intensification of the cyclonic gyre in the Nansen basin of the Arctic Ocean is accompanied by weakening of the current and an anti-cyclonic gyre spin-up in the Makarov Basin. This presents a shift of the Arctic circulation "dipole" and of the Transpolar Drift, with the consequence that the PW flow towards Fram Strait is significantly reduced by the end of the century, weakening the Pacific-Atlantic connection via the Arctic Ocean, and reducing the Arctic freshwater outflow into the North Atlantic. Examination of the simulations suggests that these circulation changes are primarily due to the shift in the wind.

Global Observations and Understanding of the General Circulation of the Oceans

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1984-01-01

The workshop was organized to: (1) assess the ability to obtain ocean data on a global scale that could profoundly change our understanding of the circulation; (2) identify the primary and secondary elements needed to conduct a World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE); (3) if the ability is achievable, to determine what the U.S. role in such an experiment should be; and (4) outline the steps necessary to assure that an appropriate program is conducted. The consensus of the workshop was that a World Ocean Circulation Experiment appears feasible, worthwhile, and timely. Participants did agree that such a program should have the overall goal of understanding the general circulation of the global ocean well enough to be able to predict ocean response and feedback to long-term changes in the atmosphere. The overall goal, specific objectives, and recommendations for next steps in planning such an experiment are included.

Quasi-periodic oscillations in a symmetric general circulation model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goswami, B. N.; Shukla, J.

1984-01-01

Observational evidence has been presented for the existence of quasi-periodic fluctuations of the tropical circulation with periods around two weeks and around 40 days. It is expected that an understanding of the mechanisms of these quasi-periodic oscillations in the tropical atmosphere will improve the predictability of the short range climate fluctuations in the tropics. The present study evolved as an outgrowth of an investigation conducted by Goswami et al. (1984). In this investigation remarkable oscillations of the Hadlay circulation for an ocean covered earth were observed. In the current study evidence is presented regarding the episodic behavior of the tropical circulation in general, and the propagation characteristics of these oscillations in the lower atmosphere. Attention is given to the results of six different experiments.

30 CFR 722.15 - Informal public hearing.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... from the earth or from coal waste piles and transporting it within or from the permit area, and (2) the... representative or sent by certified mail to such person no later than five days after the notice or order is... practicable, in a newspaper of general circulation in the area of the mine. (e) Section 554 of Title 5 of the...

Viral Oncolytic Therapeutics for Neoplastic Meningitis

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-09-01

ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION REPORT NUMBER Massachusetts General Hospital RICHARD BRINGHURST, M.D. 55 FRUIT ST BOSTON...Martuza. The cell lines were tested for mycoplasma, Hoechst DNA staining, PCR, and culture testing for contaminant bacteria, yeast, and fungi ...complication of breast cancer affects 5-8% of patients when circulating cancer cells seed in the meninges. Their subsequent growth causes severe

On the Freshwater Sensitivity of the Arctic-Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lambert, E.; Eldevik, T.; Haugan, P.

2016-02-01

The North Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) carries heat and salt toward the Arctic. This circulation is generally believed to be inhibited by northern freshwater input as indicated by the `box-model' of Stommel (1961). The inferred freshwater-sensitivity of the THC, however, varies considerably between studies, both quantitatively and qualitatively. The northernmost branch of the Atlantic THC, which forms a double estuarine circulation in the Arctic Mediterranean, is one example where both strengthening and weakening of the circulation may occur due to increased freshwater input. We have accordingly built on Stommel's original concept to accomodate a THC similar to that in the Arctic Mediterranean. This model consists of three idealized basins, or boxes, connected by two coupled branches of circulation - the double estuary. The net transport of these two branches represents the extension of the Gulf Stream toward the Arctic. Its sensitivity to a change in freshwater forcing depends largely on the distribution of freshwater over the two northern basins. Varying this distribution opens a spectrum of qualitative behaviours ranging from Stommel's original freshwater-inhibited overturning circulation to a freshwater-facilitated estuarine circulation. Between these limiting cases, a Hopf and a cusp bifurcation divide the spectrum into three qualitative regions. In the first region, the circulation behaves similarly to Stommel's circulation, and sufficient freshwater input can induce an abrupt transition into a reversed flow; in the second, a similar transition can be found, although it does not reverse the circulation; in the third, no transition can occur and the circulation is generally facilitated by the northern freshwater input. Overall, the northern THC appears more stable than what would be inferred based on Stommel's model; it requires a larger amount and more localized freshwater input to `collapse' it, and a double estuary circulation is less prone to flow reversal.

Radiative Impacts of Cloud Heterogeneity and Overlap in an Atmospheric General Circulation Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Oreopoulos, L.; Lee, D.; Sud, Y. C.; Suarez, M. J.

2012-01-01

The radiative impacts of introducing horizontal heterogeneity of layer cloud condensate, and vertical overlap of condensate and cloud fraction are examined with the aid of a new radiation package operating in the GEOS-5 Atmospheric General Circulation Model. The impacts are examined in terms of diagnostic top-of-the-atmosphere shortwave (SW) and longwave (LW) cloud radiative effect (CRE) calculations for a range of assumptions and parameter specifications about the overlap. The investigation is conducted for two distinct cloud schemes, the one that comes with the standard GEOS-5 distribution, and another which has been recently used experimentally for its enhanced GEOS-5 distribution, and another which has been recently used experimentally for its enhanced cloud microphysical capabilities; both are coupled to a cloud generator allowing arbitrary cloud overlap specification. We find that cloud overlap radiative impacts are significantly stronger for the operational cloud scheme for which a change of cloud fraction overlap from maximum-random to generalized results to global changes of SW and LW CRE of approximately 4 Watts per square meter, and zonal changes of up to approximately 10 Watts per square meter. This is because of fewer occurrences compared to the other scheme of large layer cloud fractions and of multi-layer situations with large numbers of atmospheric being simultaneously cloudy, conditions that make overlap details more important. The impact on CRE of the details of condensate distribution overlap is much weaker. Once generalized overlap is adopted, both cloud schemes are only modestly sensitive to the exact values of the overlap parameters. We also find that if one of the CRE components is overestimated and the other underestimated, both cannot be driven towards observed values by adjustments to cloud condensate heterogeneity and overlap alone.

Extending the NASA Ames Mars General Circulation Model to Explore Mars’ Middle Atmosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brecht, Amanda; Hollingsworth, J.; Kahre, M.; Schaeffer, J.

2013-10-01

The NASA Ames Mars General Circulation Model (MGCM) upper boundary has been extended to ~120 km altitude (p ~10-5 mbar). The extension of the MGCM upper boundary initiates the ability to understand the connection between the lower and upper atmosphere of Mars through the middle atmosphere 70 - 120 km). Moreover, it provides the opportunity to support future missions (i.e. the 2013 MAVEN mission). A major factor in this extension is the incorporation of the Non-Local Thermodynamic Equilibrium (NLTE) heating (visible) and cooling (infrared). This modification to the radiative transfer forcing (i.e., RT code) has been significantly tested in a 1D vertical column and now has been ported to the full 3D Mars GCM. Initial results clearly show the effects of NLTE in the upper middle atmosphere. Diagnostic of seasonal mean fields and large-scale wave activity will be shown with insight into circulation patterns in the middle atmosphere. Furthermore, sensitivity tests with the resolution of the pressure and temperature grids, in which the k-coefficients are calculated upon, have been performed in the 1D RT code. Our progress on this research will be presented. Brecht is supported by NASA’s Postdoctoral Program at the Ames Research Center, administered by Oak Ridge Associated Universities through a contract with NASA.

Stratospheric temperatures and tracer transport in a nudged 4-year middle atmosphere GCM simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Aalst, M. K.; Lelieveld, J.; Steil, B.; Brühl, C.; Jöckel, P.; Giorgetta, M. A.; Roelofs, G.-J.

2005-02-01

We have performed a 4-year simulation with the Middle Atmosphere General Circulation Model MAECHAM5/MESSy, while slightly nudging the model's meteorology in the free troposphere (below 113 hPa) towards ECMWF analyses. We show that the nudging 5 technique, which leaves the middle atmosphere almost entirely free, enables comparisons with synoptic observations. The model successfully reproduces many specific features of the interannual variability, including details of the Antarctic vortex structure. In the Arctic, the model captures general features of the interannual variability, but falls short in reproducing the timing of sudden stratospheric warmings. A 10 detailed comparison of the nudged model simulations with ECMWF data shows that the model simulates realistic stratospheric temperature distributions and variabilities, including the temperature minima in the Antarctic vortex. Some small (a few K) model biases were also identified, including a summer cold bias at both poles, and a general cold bias in the lower stratosphere, most pronounced in midlatitudes. A comparison 15 of tracer distributions with HALOE observations shows that the model successfully reproduces specific aspects of the instantaneous circulation. The main tracer transport deficiencies occur in the polar lowermost stratosphere. These are related to the tropopause altitude as well as the tracer advection scheme and model resolution. The additional nudging of equatorial zonal winds, forcing the quasi-biennial oscillation, sig20 nificantly improves stratospheric temperatures and tracer distributions.

Combination of TOPEX/POSEIDON Data with a Hydrographic Inversion for Determination of the Oceanic General Circulation and its Relation to Geoid Accuracy

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ganachaud, Alexandre; Wunsch, Carl; Kim, Myung-Chan; Tapley, Byron

1997-01-01

A global estimate of the absolute oceanic general circulation from a geostrophic inversion of in situ hydrographic data is tested against and then combined with an estimate obtained from TOPEX/POSEIDON altimetric data and a geoid model computed using the JGM-3 gravity-field solution. Within the quantitative uncertainties of both the hydrographic inversion and the geoid estimate, the two estimates derived by very different methods are consistent. When the in situ inversion is combined with the altimetry/geoid scheme using a recursive inverse procedure, a new solution, fully consistent with both hydrography and altimetry, is found. There is, however, little reduction in the uncertainties of the calculated ocean circulation and its mass and heat fluxes because the best available geoid estimate remains noisy relative to the purely oceanographic inferences. The conclusion drawn from this is that the comparatively large errors present in the existing geoid models now limit the ability of satellite altimeter data to improve directly the general ocean circulation models derived from in situ measurements. Because improvements in the geoid could be realized through a dedicated spaceborne gravity recovery mission, the impact of hypothetical much better, future geoid estimates on the circulation uncertainty is also quantified, showing significant hypothetical reductions in the uncertainties of oceanic transport calculations. Full ocean general circulation models could better exploit both existing oceanographic data and future gravity-mission data, but their present use is severely limited by the inability to quantify their error budgets.

Documentation of the GLAS fourth order general circulation model. Volume 2: Scalar code

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kalnay, E.; Balgovind, R.; Chao, W.; Edelmann, D.; Pfaendtner, J.; Takacs, L.; Takano, K.

1983-01-01

Volume 2, of a 3 volume technical memoranda contains a detailed documentation of the GLAS fourth order general circulation model. Volume 2 contains the CYBER 205 scalar and vector codes of the model, list of variables, and cross references. A variable name dictionary for the scalar code, and code listings are outlined.

The impact of resolution on the dynamics of the martian global atmosphere: Varying resolution studies with the MarsWRF GCM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Toigo, Anthony D.; Lee, Christopher; Newman, Claire E.; Richardson, Mark I.

2012-09-01

We investigate the sensitivity of the circulation and thermal structure of the martian atmosphere to numerical model resolution in a general circulation model (GCM) using the martian implementation (MarsWRF) of the planetWRF atmospheric model. We provide a description of the MarsWRF GCM and use it to study the global atmosphere at horizontal resolutions from 7.5° × 9° to 0.5° × 0.5°, encompassing the range from standard Mars GCMs to global mesoscale modeling. We find that while most of the gross-scale features of the circulation (the rough location of jets, the qualitative thermal structure, and the major large-scale features of the surface level winds) are insensitive to horizontal resolution over this range, several major features of the circulation are sensitive in detail. The northern winter polar circulation shows the greatest sensitivity, showing a continuous transition from a smooth polar winter jet at low resolution, to a distinct vertically “split” jet as resolution increases. The separation of the lower and middle atmosphere polar jet occurs at roughly 10 Pa, with the split jet structure developing in concert with the intensification of meridional jets at roughly 10 Pa and above 0.1 Pa. These meridional jets appear to represent the separation of lower and middle atmosphere mean overturning circulations (with the former being consistent with the usual concept of the “Hadley cell”). Further, the transition in polar jet structure is more sensitive to changes in zonal than meridional horizontal resolution, suggesting that representation of small-scale wave-mean flow interactions is more important than fine-scale representation of the meridional thermal gradient across the polar front. Increasing the horizontal resolution improves the match between the modeled thermal structure and the Mars Climate Sounder retrievals for northern winter high latitudes. While increased horizontal resolution also improves the simulation of the northern high latitudes at equinox, even the lowest model resolution considered here appears to do a good job for the southern winter and southern equinoctial pole (although in detail some discrepancies remain). These results suggest that studies of the northern winter jet (e.g., transient waves and cyclogenesis) will be more sensitive to global model resolution that those of the south (e.g., the confining dynamics of the southern polar vortex relevant to studies of argon transport). For surface winds, the major effect of increased horizontal resolution is in the superposition of circulations forced by local-scale topography upon the large-scale surface wind patterns. While passive predictions of dust lifting are generally insensitive to model horizontal resolution when no lifting threshold is considered, increasing the stress threshold produces significantly more lifting in higher resolution simulations with the generation of finer-scale, higher-stress winds due primarily to better-resolved topography. Considering the positive feedbacks expected for radiatively active dust lifting, we expect this bias to increase when such feedbacks are permitted.

Circulation and rainfall climatology of a 10-year (1979 - 1988) integration with the Goddard Laboratory for atmospheres general circulation model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kim, J.-H.; Sud, Y. C.

1993-01-01

A 10-year (1979-1988) integration of Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheres (GLA) general circulation model (GCM) under Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) is analyzed and compared with observation. The first momentum fields of circulation variables and also hydrological variables including precipitation, evaporation, and soil moisture are presented. Our goals are (1) to produce a benchmark documentation of the GLA GCM for future model improvements; (2) to examine systematic errors between the simulated and the observed circulation, precipitation, and hydrologic cycle; (3) to examine the interannual variability of the simulated atmosphere and compare it with observation; and (4) to examine the ability of the model to capture the major climate anomalies in response to events such as El Nino and La Nina. The 10-year mean seasonal and annual simulated circulation is quite reasonable compared to the analyzed circulation, except the polar regions and area of high orography. Precipitation over tropics are quite well simulated, and the signal of El Nino/La Nina episodes can be easily identified. The time series of evaporation and soil moisture in the 12 biomes of the biosphere also show reasonable patterns compared to the estimated evaporation and soil moisture.

The general circulation in the eastern Algerian subbasin inferred from the ELISA experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aubertin, E.; Millot, C.; Taupier-Letage, I.; Albérola, C.; Robin, S.; Font, J.

2003-04-01

About 40 current meters were set at nominal depths of 100, 350, 1000, 1800 and 2700 m on 9 moorings in the eastern Algerian subbasin from July 1997 to July 1998 during the ELISA operation (http://www.com.univ-mrs.fr/ELISA/). Most moorings were located on the 2800-m isobath, and all data sets were checked using the tidal currents analysis (Albérola et al., 1995). They allow i) confirming known features about the alongslope circulation, ii) proving that Algerian Eddies (AE's) can extend down to the bottom and iii) evidencing an anticlockwise circulation at intermediate and greater depths in the whole subbasin. i) At about 50 km from the Algerian and Sardinian coastlines, the general circulation is clearly alongslope and anticlockwise at all depths, as during previous experiments (Millot, 1994; Bouzinac et al., 1999). It is also confirmed that alongslope currents are generally larger closer to the bottom than at intermediate depths, with most annual means from 350 to 2700 m in the range 3-6 cm/s, up to about 10 cm/s at 2700 m on one mooring. This permanent (unless disturbed by AE's, see ii)) and extremely large circulation is still not well simulated by the general circulation models, which still prevents from getting a correct understanding of the functioning of the whole western basin. ii) During the experiment, three 100-200 km AE's (96-1, 97-1, and 98-2) have been identified following the anticlockwise circuit that was first specified by Fuda et al. (2000) in the study area. One of them (96-1), which had a lifetime of about 3 years (Puillat et al., 2002), remained stationary during about 5 months and was well sampled at that time by 3 moorings at least. This AE, as all AE's previously sampled (Millot et al., 1997; Ruiz et al., 2002), was clearly an anticyclone, not only in the surface AW layer, but also in the whole deep layer (i.e. down to 2800 m). Alongslope, the eddy-associated current is opposed to the general circulation at all depths, and can even be larger. When it started propagating again, 96-1 still extended over the whole depth at least during a couple of months, before markedly reducing its signature. Contrary to what is said by Testor (2002), the lagrangian floats that were launched at about 600 m within 96-1 at the beginning of the experiment did confirm the anticyclonic rotation in the intermediate layer at least (data provided by J.C. Gascard and P. Testor). These observations are seemingly consistent with many other float trajectories at 1200 and 1950 m (U. Send, personal communication) that clearly evidence mesoscale anticyclonic loops. The ELISA time series, as well as the MEDIPROD-5 ones (Millot et al., 1997) clearly confirm that the current associated with an AE has the same amplitude and phase within the whole deep layer. This is consistent with laboratory experiments and with the (sole?) hypothesis of Obaton et al. (2000) that the deep circulation within an AE is forced by a pressure effect from the surface layer. However, theoretical analyses and numerical models are, to our knowledge, not available yet to confirm this hypothesis and / or explain the actual processes yet. iii) Moorings located in the middle of the eastern Algerian subbasin, as well as the float trajectories mentioned above in the whole subbasin (south of about 39 °N), do account for an overall anticlockwise circulation in the whole deep layer. This circulation roughly corresponds to the circuit of the AE's described above. It must be noticed that most of this closed circulation is embedded in the overall alongslope circulation (from Algeria to Sardinia), thus being associated with relatively large speeds increasing with depth (as described above). Closure of this circuit (roughly from Sardinia to Balearic Islands and Algeria) do reveal very different characteristics with annual means lower than 3 cm/s decreasing with depth. Reasons for such a well defined, although not permanent, closed circulation in the eastern Algerian subbasin, and relationships with both the bathymetry and the AE's dynamics are under study Albérola C., S. Rousseau, C. Millot, M. Astraldi, J. Font, J. Garcia-Lafuente, G.P. Gasparini, U. Send and A. Vangriesheim, 1995. Tidal currents in the interior of the Western Mediterranean Sea. Oceanol. Acta, 18, 2, 273-284. Bouzinac C., J. Font and C. Millot, 1999. Hydrology and currents observed in the channel of Sardinia during the PRIMO-1 experiment from November 1993 to October 1994. J. Mar. Systems, 20, 1-4, 333-355. Fuda J.-L., C. Millot, I. Taupier-Letage, U. Send and J.M. Bocognano, 2000. XBT monitoring of a meridian section across the Western Mediterranean Sea. Deep-Sea Res., I 47, 2191-2218. Millot C., 1994. Models and data: a synergetic approach in the western Mediterranean Sea. Erice School Proceedings,"Ocean Processes in Climate Dynamics: Global and Mediterranean Examples", P. Malanotte-Rizzoli and A.R. Robinson eds, 407-425. Millot C., I. Taupier-Letage and M. Benzohra, 1997. Circulation off Algeria inferred from the Médiprod-5 current meters. Deep-Sea Res., 44, 9-10, 1467-1495. Obaton D., C. Millot, G. Chabert D'Hières and I. Taupier-Letage, 2000. The Algerian Current: comparisons between in situ and laboratory measurements. Deep-Sea Res., I 47, 2159-2190. Puillat I., I.Taupier-Letage and C. Millot. Algerian eddies lifetimes can near 3 years, 2002. Journal of Marine Syst., 31, 4, 245-259. Ruiz S., J. Font, M.Emelianov, J. Isern-Fontanet, C. Millot and I. Taupier-Letage, 2002. Deep structure of an open sea eddy in the Algerian Basin. J. Mar. Sys., 33-34, 179-195. Testor P., 2002. Etude lagrangienne de circulations tourbillonnaires de subméso et méso échelle en Méditerranée occidentale sur la base d'observations et de simulations numériques : phénoménologie et interaction avec la circulation générale. Thèse de Doctorat d'Université, Paris 6.

Climate services for an urban area (Baia Mare City, Romania) with a focus on climate extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sima, Mihaela; Micu, Dana; Dragota, Carmen-Sofia; Mihalache, Sorin

2013-04-01

The Baia Mare Urban System is located in the north-western part of Romania, with around 200,000 inhabitants and represents one of the most important former mining areas in the country, whose socioeconomic profile and environmental conditions have greatly changed over the last 20 years during the transition and post-transition period. Currently the mining is closed in the area, but the historical legacy of this activity has implications in terms of economic growth, social and cultural developments and environmental quality. Baia Mare city lies in an extended depression, particularly sheltered by the mountain and hilly regions located in the north and respectively, in the south-south-eastern part of it, which explains the high frequency of calm conditions and low airstream channeling occurrences. This urban system has a typically moderate temperate-continental climate, subject to frequent westerly airflows (moist), which moderate the thermal regime (without depicting severe extremes, both positive and negative) and enhance the precipitation one (entailing a greater frequency of wet extremes). During the reference period (1971-2000), the climate change signal in the area is rather weak and not statistically significant. However, since the mid 1980s, the warming signal became more evident from the observational data (Baia Mare station), showing a higher frequency of dry spells and positive extremes. The modelling experiments covering the 2021-2050 time horizon using regional (RM5.1/HadRM3Q0/RCA3) and global (ARPEGE/HadCM3Q0/BCM/ECHAM5) circulation models carried out within the ECLISE FP7 project suggest an ongoing temperature rise, associated to an intensification of temperature and precipitation extremes. In this context, the aim of this study was to evaluate how the local authorities consider and include climate change in their activity, as well as in the development plans (e.g. territorial, economic and social development plans). Individual interviews have been undertaken with key institutions focusing on environmental, health and urban development issues. The survey was conducted in order to identify the local authorities' perception and needs on climate change information and the importance of climate services for the city and institution's activity. Generally, the results suggest that the selected institutions are poorly aware of the potential impacts of climate change and associated extremes in the area, but they showed a real interest for future climate estimations necessary to undertake reliable adaptation measures. At institutional level, do not exist specialized departments (job positions) to tackle or manage climate information and climate-related aspects, this not being a pressing or priority issue for the city. The climate services aspects are seen with interest mainly in supplying climate scenarios and models for a relatively short term (next 10 or 15 years), the climate information being in this way included in the local planning strategies.

The role of the uncertainty in assessing future scenarios of water shortage in alluvial aquifers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Romano, Emanuele; Camici, Stefania; Brocca, Luca; Moramarco, Tommaso; Guyennon, Nicolas; Preziosi, Elisabetta

2015-04-01

There are many evidences that the combined effects of variations in precipitation and temperature due to climate change can result in a significant change of the recharge to groundwater at different time scales. A possible reduction of effective infiltration can result in a significant decrease, temporary or permanent, of the availability of the resource and, consequently, the sustainable pumping rate should be reassessed. In addition to this, one should also consider the so called indirect impacts of climate change, resulting from human intervention (e.g. augmentation of abstractions) which are feared to be even more important than the direct ones in the medium term: thus, a possible increase of episodes of shortage (i.e. the inability of the groundwater system to completely supply the water demand) can result both from change in the climate forcing and change in the demand. In order to assess future scenarios of water shortage a modelling chain is often used. It includes: 1) the use of General Circulation Models to estimate changes in temperature and precipitation; 2) downscaling procedures to match modeling scenarios to the observed meteorological time series; 3) soil-atmosphere modelling to estimate the time variation of the recharge to the aquifer; 4) groundwater flow models to simulate the water budget and piezometric head evolution; 5) future scenarios of groundwater quantitative status that include scenarios of demand variation. It is well known that each of these processing steps is affected by an intrinsic uncertainty that propagates through the whole chain leading to a final uncertainty on the piezometric head scenarios. The estimate of such an uncertainty is a key point for a correct management of groundwater resources, in case of water shortage due to prolonged droughts as well as for planning purposes. This study analyzes the uncertainty of the processing chain from GCM scenarios to its impact on an alluvial aquifer in terms of exploitation sustainability. To this goal, three GCMs (ECHAM5, PCM and CCSM3) and two downscaling methods (Linear Rescaling and Quantile Mapping) are used to generate future scenarios of precipitation and temperature; the Thornthwaite-Mather soil water balance model is used to estimate the recharge to the aquifer; the evolution in time of the piezometric heads is estimated through a numerical model developed using the MODFLOW2005 code. Finally, different scenarios of water demand are applied. Final results show that the uncertainty due to the groundwater flow model calibration/validation in steady-state conditions is comparable to that arising from the whole processing chain from the GCM choice to the effective infiltration estimates. Simulations in transient conditions show the high impact of the uncertainty related to the calibration of the storage coefficient, that significantly drives the resilience of the system, thus the ability of the aquifer to sustain the demand during the periods of prolonged drought.

Potential Carbon Stock Changes in Arizona's Ecosystems Due to Projected Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Finley, B. K.; Ironside, K.; Hungate, B. A.; Hurteau, M.; Koch, G. W.

2011-12-01

Climate change can alter the role of plants and soils as sources or sinks of atmospheric carbon dioxide and result in changes in long-term carbon storage. To understand the sensitivity of Arizona's ecosystems to climate change, we quantified the present carbon stocks in Arizona's major ecosystem types using the NASA-CASA (Carnegie Ames Stanford Approach) model. Carbon stocks for each vegetation type included surface mineral soil, dead wood litter, standing wood and live leaf biomass. The total Arizona ecosystem carbon stock is presently 1775 MMtC, 545 MMtC of which is in Pinus ponderosa and Pinus edulis forests and woodlands. Evergreen forest vegetation, predominately Pinus ponderosa, has the largest current C density at 11.3 kgC/m2, while Pinus edulis woodlands have a C density of 6.0 kgC/m2. A change in climate will impact the suitable range for each tree species, and consequentially the amount of C stored. Present habitat ranges for these tree species are projected to have widespread mortality and likely will be replaced by herbaceous species, resulting in a loss of C stored. We evaluated the C storage implications over the 2010 to 2099 period of climate change based on output from GCMs with contrasting projections for the southwestern US: MPI-ECHAM5, which projects warming and reduced precipitation, and UKMO-HadGEM, which projects warming and increased precipitation. These projected changes are end points of a spectrum of possible future climate scenarios. The vegetation distribution models used describe potential suitable habitat, and we assumed that the growth rate for each vegetation type would be one-third of the way to full C density for each 30 year period up to 2099. With increasing temperature and decreasing precipitation predictions under the MPI-ECHAM5 model, P. ponderosa and P. edulis vegetation show a decrease in carbon stored from 545 MMtC presently to 116 MMtC. With the combined increase in temperature and precipitation, C storage in these vegetation types is projected to increase to 808 MMtC. Our results indicate that future C storage in Arizona is highly dependent on precipitation. Given that most climate models for the Southwest predict a more arid future, it is likely that C storage will decrease in Arizona ecosystems, as it has in response to recent droughts, reducing mitigation of rising human emissions.

Aerosol nucleation and its role for clouds and Earth's radiative forcing in the aerosol-climate model ECHAM5-HAM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kazil, J.; Stier, P.; Zhang, K.; Quaas, J.; Kinne, S.; O'Donnell, D.; Rast, S.; Esch, M.; Ferrachat, S.; Lohmann, U.; Feichter, J.

2010-05-01

Nucleation from the gas phase is an important source of aerosol particles in the Earth's atmosphere, contributing to the number of cloud condensation nuclei, which form cloud droplets. We have implemented in the aerosol-climate model ECHAM5-HAM a new scheme for neutral and charged nucleation of sulfuric acid and water based on laboratory data, and nucleation of an organic compound and sulfuric acid using a parametrization of cluster activation based on field measurements. We give details of the implementation, compare results with observations, and investigate the role of the individual aerosol nucleation mechanisms for clouds and the Earth's radiative budget. The results of our simulations are most consistent with observations when neutral and charged nucleation of sulfuric acid proceed throughout the troposphere and nucleation due to cluster activation is limited to the forested boundary layer. The globally averaged annual mean contributions of the individual nucleation processes to total absorbed solar short-wave radiation via the direct, semi-direct, indirect cloud-albedo and cloud-lifetime effects in our simulations are -1.15 W/m2 for charged H2SO4/H2O nucleation, -0.235 W/m2 for cluster activation, and -0.05 W/m2 for neutral H2SO4/H2O nucleation. The overall effect of nucleation is -2.55 W/m2, which exceeds the sum of the individual terms due to feedbacks and interactions in the model. Aerosol nucleation contributes over the oceans with -2.18 W/m2 to total absorbed solar short-wave radiation, compared to -0.37 W/m2 over land. We explain the higher effect of aerosol nucleation on Earth's radiative budget over the oceans with the larger area covered by ocean clouds, due to the larger contrast in albedo between clouds and the ocean surface compared to continents, and the larger susceptibility of pristine clouds owing to the saturation of effects. The large effect of charged nucleation in our simulations is not in contradiction with small effects seen in local measurements: over southern Finland, where cluster activation proceeds efficiently, we find that charged nucleation of sulfuric acid and water contributes on average less than 10% to ultrafine aerosol concentrations, in good agreement with observations.

Aerosol nucleation and its role for clouds and Earth's radiative forcing in the aerosol-climate model ECHAM5-HAM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kazil, J.; Stier, P.; Zhang, K.; Quaas, J.; Kinne, S.; O'Donnell, D.; Rast, S.; Esch, M.; Ferrachat, S.; Lohmann, U.; Feichter, J.

2010-11-01

Nucleation from the gas phase is an important source of aerosol particles in the Earth's atmosphere, contributing to the number of cloud condensation nuclei, which form cloud droplets. We have implemented in the aerosol-climate model ECHAM5-HAM a new scheme for neutral and charged nucleation of sulfuric acid and water based on laboratory data, and nucleation of an organic compound and sulfuric acid using a parametrization of cluster activation based on field measurements. We give details of the implementation, compare results with observations, and investigate the role of the individual aerosol nucleation mechanisms for clouds and the Earth's radiative forcing. The results of our simulations are most consistent with observations when neutral and charged nucleation of sulfuric acid proceed throughout the troposphere and nucleation due to cluster activation is limited to the forested boundary layer. The globally averaged annual mean contributions of the individual nucleation processes to total absorbed solar short-wave radiation via the direct, semi-direct, indirect cloud-albedo and cloud-lifetime effects in our simulations are -1.15 W/m2 for charged H2SO4/H2O nucleation, -0.235 W/m2 for cluster activation, and -0.05 W/m2 for neutral H2SO4/H2O nucleation. The overall effect of nucleation is -2.55 W/m2, which exceeds the sum of the individual terms due to feedbacks and interactions in the model. Aerosol nucleation contributes over the oceans with -2.18 W/m2 to total absorbed solar short-wave radiation, compared to -0.37 W/m2 over land. We explain the higher effect of aerosol nucleation on Earth's radiative forcing over the oceans with the larger area covered by ocean clouds, due to the larger contrast in albedo between clouds and the ocean surface compared to continents, and the larger susceptibility of pristine clouds owing to the saturation of effects. The large effect of charged nucleation in our simulations is not in contradiction with small effects seen in local measurements: over southern Finland, where cluster activation proceeds efficiently, we find that charged nucleation of sulfuric acid and water contributes on average less than 10% to ultrafine aerosol concentrations, in good agreement with observations.

10Be in late deglacial climate simulated by ECHAM5-HAM - Part 2: Isolating the solar signal from 10Be deposition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heikkilä, U.; Shi, X.; Phipps, S. J.; Smith, A. M.

2013-10-01

This study investigates the effect of deglacial climate on the deposition of the solar proxy 10Be globally, and at two specific locations, the GRIP site at Summit, Central Greenland, and the Law Dome site in coastal Antarctica. The deglacial climate is represented by three 30 yr time slice simulations of 10 000 BP (years before present = 1950 CE), 11 000 BP and 12 000 BP, compared with a preindustrial control simulation. The model used is the ECHAM5-HAM atmospheric aerosol-climate model, driven with sea surface temperatures and sea ice cover simulated using the CSIRO Mk3L coupled climate system model. The focus is on isolating the 10Be production signal, driven by solar variability, from the weather or climate driven noise in the 10Be deposition flux during different stages of climate. The production signal varies on lower frequencies, dominated by the 11yr solar cycle within the 30 yr time scale of these experiments. The climatic noise is of higher frequencies. We first apply empirical orthogonal functions (EOF) analysis to global 10Be deposition on the annual scale and find that the first principal component, consisting of the spatial pattern of mean 10Be deposition and the temporally varying solar signal, explains 64% of the variability. The following principal components are closely related to those of precipitation. Then, we apply ensemble empirical decomposition (EEMD) analysis on the time series of 10Be deposition at GRIP and at Law Dome, which is an effective method for adaptively decomposing the time series into different frequency components. The low frequency components and the long term trend represent production and have reduced noise compared to the entire frequency spectrum of the deposition. The high frequency components represent climate driven noise related to the seasonal cycle of e.g. precipitation and are closely connected to high frequencies of precipitation. These results firstly show that the 10Be atmospheric production signal is preserved in the deposition flux to surface even during climates very different from today's both in global data and at two specific locations. Secondly, noise can be effectively reduced from 10Be deposition data by simply applying the EOF analysis in the case of a reasonably large number of available data sets, or by decomposing the individual data sets to filter out high-frequency fluctuations.

Ocean Dynamics in the Key Regions of North Atlantic-Arctic Exchanges: Evaluation of Global Multi-Resolution FESOM and CMIP-type INMCM Models with Long-Term Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beszczynska-Moeller, A.; Gürses, Ö.; Sidorenko, D.; Goessling, H.; Volodin, E. M.; Gritsun, A.; Iakovlev, N. G.; Andrzejewski, J.

2017-12-01

Enhancing the fidelity of climate models in the Arctic and North Atlantic in order to improve Arctic predictions requires better understanding of the underlying causes of common biases. The main focus of the ERA.Net project NAtMAP (Amending North Atlantic Model Biases to Improve Arctic Predictions) is on the dynamics of the key regions connecting the Arctic and the North Atlantic climate. The study aims not only at increased model realism, but also at a deeper understanding of North Atlantic-Arctic links and their contribution to Arctic predictability. Two complementary approaches employing different global coupled climate models, ECHAM6-FESOM and INMCM4/5, were adopted. The first approach is based on a recent development of climate models with ocean components based on unstructured meshes, allowing to resolve eddies and narrow boundary currents in the most crucial regions while keeping a moderate resolution elsewhere. The multi-resolution sea ice-ocean component of ECHAM6-FESOM allows studying the benefits of very high resolution in key areas of the North Atlantic. An alternative approach to address the North Atlantic and Arctic biases is also tried by tuning the performance of the relevant sub-grid-scale parameterizations in eddy resolving version the CMIP5 climate model INMCM4. Using long-term in situ and satellite observations and available climatologies we attempt to evaluate to what extent a higher resolution, allowing the explicit representation of eddies and narrow boundary currents in the North Atlantic and Nordic Seas, can alleviate the common model errors. The effects of better resolving the Labrador Sea area on reducing the model bias in surface hydrography and improved representation of ocean currents are addressed. Resolving eddy field in the Greenland Sea is assessed in terms of reducing the deep thermocline bias. The impact of increased resolution on the modeled characteristics of Atlantic water transport into the Arctic is examined with a special focus on separation of Atlantic inflow between Fram Strait and the Barents Sea, lateral exchanges in the Nordic Seas, and a role of eddies in modulating the poleward flow of Atlantic water. We also explore the effects of resolving boundary currents in the Arctic basin on the representation of the adjacent sea ice.

Characteristics of stratosphere-troposphere exchange in a general circulation model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mote, Philip W.; Holton, James R.; Boville, Byron A.

1994-01-01

In this study we examine mass exchange, water vapor exchange, and the behavior of idealized tracers and parcels to diagnose Stratosphere-Troposphere Exchange (STE) in the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) General Circulation Model (GCM), the Community Climate Model (CCM2). The CCM2 correctly represents the seasonality of mass exchange across 100 hPa, but values are uniformly too strong. Water vapor, however, indicates that tropical STE is not well represented in the CCM2; even though mean tropopause temperatures are colder than observed, the lower stratosphere is too moist. Most net mass flux occurs at water vapor mixing ratios of about 4-5 parts per million by volume (ppmv), about 1 ppmv too moist. Vertical resolution has little impact on the nature of tropical STE. In midlatitudes, CCM2 more successfully represents STE, which occurs in developing baroclinic waves and stationary anticyclones. Exchange from troposphere to stratosphere does occur but only influences the lowest few kilometers of the extratropical stratosphere, even for tracers with large vertical gradients.

Automated Circulation Systems as a Source of Secondary Information.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chapin, Giny Ziegler

This report looks at the use of public library online circulation systems for the generation of in-house secondary information--such as statistical reports and mailing lists--and also considers problems in maintaining confidentiality of patron records when using online circulation systems. Based on a survey of the literature, general information…

Simulation of seasonal anomalies of atmospheric circulation using coupled atmosphere-ocean model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tolstykh, M. A.; Diansky, N. A.; Gusev, A. V.; Kiktev, D. B.

2014-03-01

A coupled atmosphere-ocean model intended for the simulation of coupled circulation at time scales up to a season is developed. The semi-Lagrangian atmospheric general circulation model of the Hydrometeorological Centre of Russia, SLAV, is coupled with the sigma model of ocean general circulation developed at the Institute of Numerical Mathematics, Russian Academy of Sciences (INM RAS), INMOM. Using this coupled model, numerical experiments on ensemble modeling of the atmosphere and ocean circulation for up to 4 months are carried out using real initial data for all seasons of an annual cycle in 1989-2010. Results of these experiments are compared to the results of the SLAV model with the simple evolution of the sea surface temperature. A comparative analysis of seasonally averaged anomalies of atmospheric circulation shows prospects in applying the coupled model for forecasts. It is shown with the example of the El Niño phenomenon of 1997-1998 that the coupled model forecasts the seasonally averaged anomalies for the period of the nonstationary El Niño phase significantly better.

The impacts of climate, land use, and demography on fires during the 21st century simulated by CLM-CN

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kloster, S.; Mahowald, N. M.; Randerson, J. T.; Lawrence, P. J.

2012-01-01

Landscape fires during the 21st century are expected to change in response to multiple agents of global change. Important controlling factors include climate controls on the length and intensity of the fire season, fuel availability, and fire management, which are already anthropogenically perturbed today and are predicted to change further in the future. An improved understanding of future fires will contribute to an improved ability to project future anthropogenic climate change, as changes in fire activity will in turn impact climate. In the present study we used a coupled-carbon-fire model to investigate how changes in climate, demography, and land use may alter fire emissions. We used climate projections following the SRES A1B scenario from two different climate models (ECHAM5/MPI-OM and CCSM) and changes in population. Land use and harvest rates were prescribed according to the RCP 45 scenario. In response to the combined effect of all these drivers, our model estimated, depending on our choice of climate projection, an increase in future (2075-2099) fire carbon emissions by 17 and 62% compared to present day (1985-2009). The largest increase in fire emissions was predicted for Southern Hemisphere South America for both climate projections. For Northern Hemisphere Africa, a region that contributed significantly to the global total fire carbon emissions, the response varied between a decrease and an increase depending on the climate projection. We disentangled the contribution of the single forcing factors to the overall response by conducting an additional set of simulations in which each factor was individually held constant at pre-industrial levels. The two different projections of future climate change evaluated in this study led to increases in global fire carbon emissions by 22% (CCSM) and 66% (ECHAM5/MPI-OM). The RCP 45 projection of harvest and land use led to a decrease in fire carbon emissions by -5%. The RCP 26 and RCP 60 harvest and landuse projections caused decreases around -20%. Changes in human ignition led to an increase of 20%. When we also included changes in fire management efforts to suppress fires in densely populated areas, global fire carbon emission decreased by -6% in response to changes in population density. We concluded from this study that changes in fire emissions in the future are controlled by multiple interacting factors. Although changes in climate led to an increase in future fire emissions this could be globally counterbalanced by coupled changes in land use, harvest, and demography.

Radiation and Dissipation of Internal Waves Generated by Geostrophic Motions Impinging on Small-Scale Topography

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-02-01

the largest zonal current in the world, which links the Atlantic , Indian and Pacific Oceans. The associated Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC...formed in polar regions (Wunsch and Ferrari, 2004). Mixing is especially important in the Southern Ocean where the Meridional Overturning Circulation ...general circulation of the ocean and an important driver of the lower cell of the Meridional Overturning Circulation . Wunsch (1998) estimated that the

36 CFR 910.17 - Pedestrian circulation system.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... GENERAL GUIDELINES AND UNIFORM STANDARDS FOR URBAN PLANNING AND DESIGN OF DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE PENNSYLVANIA AVENUE DEVELOPMENT AREA Urban Planning and Design Concerns § 910.17 Pedestrian circulation system...

36 CFR 910.17 - Pedestrian circulation system.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... GENERAL GUIDELINES AND UNIFORM STANDARDS FOR URBAN PLANNING AND DESIGN OF DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE PENNSYLVANIA AVENUE DEVELOPMENT AREA Urban Planning and Design Concerns § 910.17 Pedestrian circulation system...

The influence of surface waves on water circulation in a mid-Atlantic continental shelf region

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Whitlock, C. H.; Talay, T. A.

1974-01-01

The importance of wave-induced currents in different weather conditions and water depths (18.3 m and 36.6 m) is assessed in a mid-Atlantic continental-shelf region. A review of general circulation conditions is conducted. Factors which perturb the general circulation are examined using analytic techniques and limited experimental data. Actual wind and wave statistics for the region are examined. Relative magnitudes of the various currents are compared on a frequency of annual occurrence basis. Results indicated that wave-induced currents are often the same order of magnitude as other currents in the region and become more important at higher wind and wave conditions. Wind-wave and ocean-swell characteristics are among those parameters which must be monitored for the analytical computation of continental-shelf circulation.

Probability of US Heat Waves Affected by a Subseasonal Planetary Wave Pattern

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Teng, Haiyan; Branstator, Grant; Wang, Hailan; Meehl, Gerald A.; Washington, Warren M.

2013-01-01

Heat waves are thought to result from subseasonal atmospheric variability. Atmospheric phenomena driven by tropical convection, such as the Asian monsoon, have been considered potential sources of predictability on subseasonal timescales. Mid-latitude atmospheric dynamics have been considered too chaotic to allow significant prediction skill of lead times beyond the typical 10-day range of weather forecasts. Here we use a 12,000-year integration of an atmospheric general circulation model to identify a pattern of subseasonal atmospheric variability that can help improve forecast skill for heat waves in the United States. We find that heat waves tend to be preceded by 15-20 days by a pattern of anomalous atmospheric planetary waves with a wavenumber of 5. This circulation pattern can arise as a result of internal atmospheric dynamics and is not necessarily linked to tropical heating.We conclude that some mid-latitude circulation anomalies that increase the probability of heat waves are predictable beyond the typical weather forecast range.

Uncertainties in Carbon Dioxide Radiative Forcing in Atmospheric General Circulation Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cess, R. D.; Zhang, M.-H.; Potter, G. L.; Gates, W. L.; Taylor, K. E.; Barker, H. W.; Colman, R. A.; Fraser, J. R.; McAvaney, B. J.; Dazlich, D. A.;

Performance Analysis and Optimization on the UCLA Parallel Atmospheric General Circulation Model Code

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lou, John; Ferraro, Robert; Farrara, John; Mechoso, Carlos

1996-01-01

An analysis is presented of several factors influencing the performance of a parallel implementation of the UCLA atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) on massively parallel computer systems. Several modificaitons to the original parallel AGCM code aimed at improving its numerical efficiency, interprocessor communication cost, load-balance and issues affecting single-node code performance are discussed.

Simulation of the early Martian climate using a general circulation model, DRAMATIC MGCM: Impacts of thermal inertia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kamada, A.; Kuroda, T.; Kasaba, Y.; Terada, N.; Akiba, T.

2017-09-01

Our Mars General Circulation Model was used to reproduce the early Martian climate which was thought to be warm and wet. Our simulation with high thermal inertia assuming wet soils and ancient ocean/lakes succeeded in producing the surface temperature above 273K throughout a year in low-mid latitudes of northern hemisphere.

Do downscaled general circulation models reliably simulate historical climatic conditions?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bock, Andrew R.; Hay, Lauren E.; McCabe, Gregory J.; Markstrom, Steven L.; Atkinson, R. Dwight

2018-01-01

The accuracy of statistically downscaled (SD) general circulation model (GCM) simulations of monthly surface climate for historical conditions (1950–2005) was assessed for the conterminous United States (CONUS). The SD monthly precipitation (PPT) and temperature (TAVE) from 95 GCMs from phases 3 and 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 and CMIP5) were used as inputs to a monthly water balance model (MWBM). Distributions of MWBM input (PPT and TAVE) and output [runoff (RUN)] variables derived from gridded station data (GSD) and historical SD climate were compared using the Kolmogorov–Smirnov (KS) test For all three variables considered, the KS test results showed that variables simulated using CMIP5 generally are more reliable than those derived from CMIP3, likely due to improvements in PPT simulations. At most locations across the CONUS, the largest differences between GSD and SD PPT and RUN occurred in the lowest part of the distributions (i.e., low-flow RUN and low-magnitude PPT). Results indicate that for the majority of the CONUS, there are downscaled GCMs that can reliably simulate historical climatic conditions. But, in some geographic locations, none of the SD GCMs replicated historical conditions for two of the three variables (PPT and RUN) based on the KS test, with a significance level of 0.05. In these locations, improved GCM simulations of PPT are needed to more reliably estimate components of the hydrologic cycle. Simple metrics and statistical tests, such as those described here, can provide an initial set of criteria to help simplify GCM selection.

Comparison of aerosol optical properties above clouds between POLDER and AeroCom models over the South East Atlantic Ocean during the fire season: POLDER/AeroCom Comparison Above Clouds

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Peers, F.; Bellouin, N.; Waquet, F.

Aerosol properties above clouds have been retrieved over the South East Atlantic Ocean during the fire season 2006 using satellite observations from POLDER (Polarization and Directionality of Earth Reflectances). From June to October, POLDER has observed a mean Above-Cloud Aerosol Optical Thickness (ACAOT) of 0.28 and a mean Above-Clouds Single Scattering Albedo (ACSSA) of 0.87 at 550nm. These results have been used to evaluate the simulation of aerosols above clouds in 5 AeroCom (Aerosol Comparisons between Observations and Models) models (GOCART, HadGEM3, ECHAM5-HAM2, OsloCTM2 and SPRINTARS). Most models do not reproduce the observed large aerosol load episodes. The comparison highlightsmore » the importance of the injection height and the vertical transport parameterizations to simulate the large ACAOT observed by POLDER. Furthermore, some models overestimate the ACSSA. In accordance with recent recommendations of the black carbon refractive index, a higher prescription of the imaginary part allows a better comparison with POLDER’s ACSSA.« less

Efficient quantum circuits for dense circulant and circulant like operators

PubMed Central

Zhou, S. S.

2017-01-01

Circulant matrices are an important family of operators, which have a wide range of applications in science and engineering-related fields. They are, in general, non-sparse and non-unitary. In this paper, we present efficient quantum circuits to implement circulant operators using fewer resources and with lower complexity than existing methods. Moreover, our quantum circuits can be readily extended to the implementation of Toeplitz, Hankel and block circulant matrices. Efficient quantum algorithms to implement the inverses and products of circulant operators are also provided, and an example application in solving the equation of motion for cyclic systems is discussed. PMID:28572988

Modeled ecohydrological responses to climate change at seven small watersheds in the northeastern United States

Treesearch

Afshin Pourmokhtarian; Charles T. Driscoll; John L. Campbell; Katharine Hayhoe; Anne M. K. Stoner; Mary Beth Adams; Douglas Burns; Ivan Fernandez; Myron J. Mitchell; James B. Shanley

2016-01-01

A cross-site analysis was conducted on seven diverse, forested watersheds in the northeastern United States to evaluate hydrological responses (evapotranspiration, soil moisture, seasonal and annual streamflow, and water stress) to projections of future climate. We used output from four atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs; CCSM4, HadGEM2-CC, MIROC5, and...

Global climate change and potential effects on pacific salmonids in freshwater ecosystems of southeast Alaska

Treesearch

M.D. Bryant

2009-01-01

General circulation models predict increases in air temperatures from 1◦C to 5◦C as atmospheric CO2 continues to rise during the next 100 years. Thermal regimes in freshwater ecosystems will change as air temperatures increase regionally. As air temperatures increase, the distribution and intensity of precipitation will change which will in turn...

How robust is the atmospheric circulation response to Arctic sea-ice loss in isolation?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kushner, P. J.; Hay, S. E.; Blackport, R.; McCusker, K. E.; Oudar, T.

2017-12-01

It is now apparent that active dynamical coupling between the ocean and atmosphere determines a good deal of how Arctic sea-ice loss changes the large-scale atmospheric circulation. In coupled ocean-atmosphere models, Arctic sea-ice loss indirectly induces a 'mini' global warming and circulation changes that extend into the tropics and the Southern Hemisphere. Ocean-atmosphere coupling also amplifies by about 50% Arctic free-tropospheric warming arising from sea-ice loss (Deser et al. 2015, 2016). The mechanisms at work and how to separate the response to sea-ice loss from the rest of the global warming process remain poorly understood. Different studies have used distinctive numerical approaches and coupled ocean-atmosphere models to address this problem. We put these studies on comparable footing using pattern scaling (Blackport and Kushner 2017) to separately estimate the part of the circulation response that scales with sea-ice loss in the absence of low-latitude warming from the part that scales with low-latitude warming in the absence of sea-ice loss. We consider well-sampled simulations from three different coupled ocean-atmosphere models (CESM1, CanESM2, CNRM-CM5), in which greenhouse warming and sea-ice loss are driven in different ways (sea ice albedo reduction/transient RCP8.5 forcing for CESM1, nudged sea ice/CO2 doubling for CanESM2, heat-flux forcing/constant RCP8.5-derived forcing for CNRM-CM5). Across these different simulations, surprisingly robust influences of Arctic sea-ice loss on atmospheric circulation can be diagnosed using pattern scaling. For boreal winter, the isolated sea-ice loss effect acts to increase warming in the North American Sub-Arctic, decrease warming of the Eurasian continent, enhance precipitation over the west coast of North America, and strengthen the Aleutian Low and the Siberian High. We will also discuss how Arctic free tropospheric warming might be enhanced via midlatitude ocean surface warming induced by sea-ice loss. Less robust is the part of the response that scales with low-latitude warming, which, depending on the model, can reinforce or cancel the response to sea-ice loss. The extent to which a "tug of war" exists between tropical and high-latitude influences on the general circulation might thus be model dependent.

Improvement of the GEOS-5 AGCM upon Updating the Air-Sea Roughness Parameterization

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Garfinkel, C. I.; Molod, A.; Oman, L. D.; Song, I.-S.

2011-01-01

The impact of an air-sea roughness parameterization over the ocean that more closely matches recent observations of air-sea exchange is examined in the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System, version 5 (GEOS-5) atmospheric general circulation model. Surface wind biases in the GEOS-5 AGCM are decreased by up to 1.2m/s. The new parameterization also has implications aloft as improvements extend into the stratosphere. Many other GCMs (both for operational weather forecasting and climate) use a similar class of parameterization for their air-sea roughness scheme. We therefore expect that results from GEOS-5 are relevant to other models as well.

Methods of testing parameterizations: Vertical ocean mixing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tziperman, Eli

1992-01-01

The ocean's velocity field is characterized by an exceptional variety of scales. While the small-scale oceanic turbulence responsible for the vertical mixing in the ocean is of scales a few centimeters and smaller, the oceanic general circulation is characterized by horizontal scales of thousands of kilometers. In oceanic general circulation models that are typically run today, the vertical structure of the ocean is represented by a few tens of discrete grid points. Such models cannot explicitly model the small-scale mixing processes, and must, therefore, find ways to parameterize them in terms of the larger-scale fields. Finding a parameterization that is both reliable and plausible to use in ocean models is not a simple task. Vertical mixing in the ocean is the combined result of many complex processes, and, in fact, mixing is one of the less known and less understood aspects of the oceanic circulation. In present models of the oceanic circulation, the many complex processes responsible for vertical mixing are often parameterized in an oversimplified manner. Yet, finding an adequate parameterization of vertical ocean mixing is crucial to the successful application of ocean models to climate studies. The results of general circulation models for quantities that are of particular interest to climate studies, such as the meridional heat flux carried by the ocean, are quite sensitive to the strength of the vertical mixing. We try to examine the difficulties in choosing an appropriate vertical mixing parameterization, and the methods that are available for validating different parameterizations by comparing model results to oceanographic data. First, some of the physical processes responsible for vertically mixing the ocean are briefly mentioned, and some possible approaches to the parameterization of these processes in oceanographic general circulation models are described in the following section. We then discuss the role of the vertical mixing in the physics of the large-scale ocean circulation, and examine methods of validating mixing parameterizations using large-scale ocean models.

Evaluating the skills of isotope-enabled general circulation models against in situ atmospheric water vapor isotope observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steen-Larsen, H. C.; Risi, C.; Werner, M.; Yoshimura, K.; Masson-Delmotte, V.

2017-01-01

The skills of isotope-enabled general circulation models are evaluated against atmospheric water vapor isotopes. We have combined in situ observations of surface water vapor isotopes spanning multiple field seasons (2010, 2011, and 2012) from the top of the Greenland Ice Sheet (NEEM site: 77.45°N, 51.05°W, 2484 m above sea level) with observations from the marine boundary layer of the North Atlantic and Arctic Ocean (Bermuda Islands 32.26°N, 64.88°W, year: 2012; south coast of Iceland 63.83°N, 21.47°W, year: 2012; South Greenland 61.21°N, 47.17°W, year: 2012; Svalbard 78.92°N, 11.92°E, year: 2014). This allows us to benchmark the ability to simulate the daily water vapor isotope variations from five different simulations using isotope-enabled general circulation models. Our model-data comparison documents clear isotope biases both on top of the Greenland Ice Sheet (1-11‰ for δ18O and 4-19‰ for d-excess depending on model and season) and in the marine boundary layer (maximum differences for the following: Bermuda δ18O = 1‰, d-excess = 3‰; South coast of Iceland δ18O = 2‰, d-excess = 5‰; South Greenland δ18O = 4‰, d-excess = 7‰; Svalbard δ18O = 2‰, d-excess = 7‰). We find that the simulated isotope biases are not just explained by simulated biases in temperature and humidity. Instead, we argue that these isotope biases are related to a poor simulation of the spatial structure of the marine boundary layer water vapor isotopic composition. Furthermore, we specifically show that the marine boundary layer water vapor isotopes of the Baffin Bay region show strong influence on the water vapor isotopes at the NEEM deep ice core-drilling site in northwest Greenland. Our evaluation of the simulations using isotope-enabled general circulation models also documents wide intermodel spatial variability in the Arctic. This stresses the importance of a coordinated water vapor isotope-monitoring network in order to discriminate amongst these model behaviors.

Hepatitis C virus prevalence and genetic diversity among pregnant women in Gabon, central Africa

PubMed Central

Ndong-Atome, Guy-Roger; Makuwa, Maria; Njouom, Richard; Branger, Michel; Brun-Vézinet, Francoise; Mahé, Antoine; Rousset, Dominique; Kazanji, Mirdad

2008-01-01

Background Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is a major global public health problem in both developed and developing countries. The prevalence and genetic diversity of HCV in pregnant women in Gabon, central Africa, is not known. We therefore evaluated the prevalence and the circulating genotypes of HCV in a large population cohort of pregnant women. Methods Blood samples (947) were collected from pregnant women in the five main cities of the country. The prevalence was evaluated by two ELISA tests, and the circulating genotypes were characterized by sequencing and phylogenetic analysis. Results Twenty pregnant women (2.1%) were infected with HCV. The seroprevalence differed significantly by region (p = 0.004) and increased significantly with age (p = 0.05), being 1.3% at 14–20 years, 1.1% at 21–25 years, 1.9% at 26–30 years, 4.1% at 31–35 years and 6.0% at > 35 years. Sequencing in the 5'-UTR and NS5B regions showed that the circulating strains belonged to genotypes 4 (4e and 4c). Conclusion We found that the HCV seroprevalence in pregnant women in Gabon is almost as high as that in other African countries and increases with age. Furthermore, only genotype 4 (4e and 4c) was found. More extensive studies aiming to evaluate the prevalence and heterogeneity of HCV genotypes circulating in the general population of the country are needed. PMID:18559087

Circulating 25-Hydroxyvitamin D and Risk of Epithelial Ovarian Cancer

PubMed Central

Zheng, Wei; Danforth, Kim N.; Tworoger, Shelley S.; Goodman, Marc T.; Arslan, Alan A.; Patel, Alpa V.; McCullough, Marjorie L.; Weinstein, Stephanie J.; Kolonel, Laurence N.; Purdue, Mark P.; Shu, Xiao-Ou; Snyder, Kirk; Steplowski, Emily; Visvanathan, Kala; Yu, Kai; Zeleniuch-Jacquotte, Anne; Gao, Yu-Tang; Hankinson, Susan E.; Harvey, Chinonye; Hayes, Richard B.; Henderson, Brian E.; Horst, Ronald L.; Helzlsouer, Kathy J.

2010-01-01

A role for vitamin D in ovarian cancer etiology is supported by ecologic studies of sunlight exposure, experimental mechanism studies, and some studies of dietary vitamin D intake and genetic polymorphisms in the vitamin D receptor. However, few studies have examined the association of circulating 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D), an integrated measure of vitamin D status, with ovarian cancer risk. A nested case-control study was conducted among 7 prospective studies to evaluate the circulating 25(OH)D concentration in relation to epithelial ovarian cancer risk. Logistic regression models were used to estimate odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals among 516 cases and 770 matched controls. Compared with 25(OH)D concentrations of 50–<75 nmol/L, no statistically significant associations were observed for <37.5 (odds ratio (OR) = 1.21, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.87, 1.70), 37.5–<50 (OR = 1.03, 95% CI: 0.75, 1.41), or ≥75 (OR = 1.11, 95% CI: 0.79, 1.55) nmol/L. Analyses stratified by tumor subtype, age, body mass index, and other variables were generally null but suggested an inverse association between 25(OH)D and ovarian cancer risk among women with a body mass index of ≥25 kg/m2 (Pinteraction < 0.01). In conclusion, this large pooled analysis did not support an overall association between circulating 25(OH)D and ovarian cancer risk, except possibly among overweight women. PMID:20562186

Circulating 25-hydroxyvitamin D and risk of epithelial ovarian cancer: Cohort Consortium Vitamin D Pooling Project of Rarer Cancers.

PubMed

Zheng, Wei; Danforth, Kim N; Tworoger, Shelley S; Goodman, Marc T; Arslan, Alan A; Patel, Alpa V; McCullough, Marjorie L; Weinstein, Stephanie J; Kolonel, Laurence N; Purdue, Mark P; Shu, Xiao-Ou; Snyder, Kirk; Steplowski, Emily; Visvanathan, Kala; Yu, Kai; Zeleniuch-Jacquotte, Anne; Gao, Yu-Tang; Hankinson, Susan E; Harvey, Chinonye; Hayes, Richard B; Henderson, Brian E; Horst, Ronald L; Helzlsouer, Kathy J

2010-07-01

A role for vitamin D in ovarian cancer etiology is supported by ecologic studies of sunlight exposure, experimental mechanism studies, and some studies of dietary vitamin D intake and genetic polymorphisms in the vitamin D receptor. However, few studies have examined the association of circulating 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D), an integrated measure of vitamin D status, with ovarian cancer risk. A nested case-control study was conducted among 7 prospective studies to evaluate the circulating 25(OH)D concentration in relation to epithelial ovarian cancer risk. Logistic regression models were used to estimate odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals among 516 cases and 770 matched controls. Compared with 25(OH)D concentrations of 50-<75 nmol/L, no statistically significant associations were observed for <37.5 (odds ratio (OR) = 1.21, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.87, 1.70), 37.5-<50 (OR = 1.03, 95% CI: 0.75, 1.41), or > or =75 (OR = 1.11, 95% CI: 0.79, 1.55) nmol/L. Analyses stratified by tumor subtype, age, body mass index, and other variables were generally null but suggested an inverse association between 25(OH)D and ovarian cancer risk among women with a body mass index of > or =25 kg/m(2) (P(interaction) < 0.01). In conclusion, this large pooled analysis did not support an overall association between circulating 25(OH)D and ovarian cancer risk, except possibly among overweight women.

Heat flow in the flanks of the Oceanographer-Hayes segment of the Mid-Atlantic Ridge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Le Gal, V.; Lucazeau, F.; Cannat, M.; Battani, A.; Poort, J.; Guichet, X.; Monnin, C.; Fontaine, F. J.; Leroy, S. D.

2016-12-01

It is currently estimated that a third of the oceanic heat loss is due to fluid circulation in the oceanic crust. Besides high and low temperature fluid discharge at ridge axis, off-axis low temperature fluid circulations can affect large volumes of the oceanic crust. Long term investigations of the Eastern Juan de Fuca ridge flank (Hutnak et al.2006) have established a circulation pattern where hydrothermal discharge and recharge occur at basement outcrops and where sediment is mostly impermeable. Here, we present results from the recent Oceanograflu cruise (2013), on the Oceanographer-Hayes segment ridge flanks of the Mid-Atlantic ridge in crust 5 and 12 myrs in age. On both flanks, we obtained 185 temperature gradients and conductivities in-situ, 30 Küllenberg cores (3 to 5 meters long) coupled with temperature gradients in-situ and conductivity measurements onboard. These data are interpreted in terms of heat flow values and are generally lower than the conductive cooling model. Several temperature-depth profiles don't show linear gradients, but rather sigmoid shapes or inverse gradients suggesting superficial circulations through the first meters of sediments. The corresponding heat flow pattern is not similar to the one observed at Juan de Fuca. No systematic links have been observed between basement outcrops and lower or higher heat flow which would point to discharge or recharge sites. Instead, the pattern recalls studies in the North Pond area (Langseth et al.1992), with a clear predominance of low heat flow values over the site. We propose that the North Pond circulation model is applicable to large portions of slow-spreading ridge flanks such as the Atlantic. In this model, seawater cools the uppermost crust below sediments in basins that are typically tens of kms wide, reducing the surface heat flow under cooling model values. Based on subsidence rates, these shallow hydrothermal circulations have a minor impact on the cooling of the diverging plates.

Temporal relationships between adipocytokines and diabetes risk during puberty in Hispanic adolescents with obesity

PubMed Central

Kayser, Brandon D.; Toledo-Corral, Claudia M.; Alderete, Tanya L.; Weigensberg, Marc J.; Goran, Michael I.

2015-01-01

Objective Circulating cytokines are frequently cited as contributors to insulin resistance in children with obesity. This study examined whether circulating adipocytokines, independent of adiposity, predicted pubertal changes in insulin sensitivity (SI), insulin secretion (AIR), and β-cell function (BCF) in high-risk adolescents. Design and Methods 158 overweight/obese Hispanic adolescents were followed for a median of 4 years. Adipocytokines were measured using Luminex technology. SI, AIR, and the disposition index (DI) were derived from an intravenous glucose tolerance test and Minimal Modeling. Total fat mass (TFM) was measured by DEXA and visceral adipose tissue (VAT) by MRI. Results Surprisingly, mean IL-8, IL-1β, IL-6 and TNF-α decreased between 5% and 6.5% per year from baseline (P<0.001). Despite the general temporal trends, gaining 1-SD of VAT was associated with a 2% and 5% increase in MCP-1 and IL-8 (P<0.05). In addition, a 1-SD higher MCP-1 or IL-6 concentration at baseline was associated with a 16% and 21% greater decline in SI during puberty vs. pre-puberty (P<0.05). Conclusions Several adipocytokines decreased during adolescence and were weakly associated with VAT and lower insulin sensitivity during puberty. Circulating adipocytokines have relatively limited associations with pubertal changes in diabetes risk, however the consistent findings with MCP-1 warrant further investigation. PMID:26046253

Minimal modeling of the extratropical general circulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

O'Brien, Enda; Branscome, Lee E.

1989-01-01

The ability of low-order, two-layer models to reproduce basic features of the mid-latitude general circulation is investigated. Changes in model behavior with increased spectral resolution are examined in detail. Qualitatively correct time-mean heat and momentum balances are achieved in a beta-plane channel model which includes the first and third meridional modes. This minimal resolution also reproduces qualitatively realistic surface and upper-level winds and mean meridional circulations. Higher meridional resolution does not result in substantial changes in the latitudinal structure of the circulation. A qualitatively correct kinetic energy spectrum is produced when the resolution is high enough to include several linearly stable modes. A model with three zonal waves and the first three meridional modes has a reasonable energy spectrum and energy conversion cycle, while also satisfying heat and momentum budget requirements. This truncation reproduces the basic mechanisms and zonal circulation features that are obtained at higher resolution. The model performance improves gradually with higher resolution and is smoothly dependent on changes in external parameters.

Profile of circulating microRNAs in fibromyalgia and their relation to symptom severity: an exploratory study.

PubMed

Bjersing, Jan L; Bokarewa, Maria I; Mannerkorpi, Kaisa

2015-04-01

Fibromyalgia (FM) is characterized by generalized chronic pain and reduced pain thresholds. Disturbed neuroendocrine function and impairment of growth hormone/insulin-like growth factor-1 is common. However, the pathophysiology of FM is not clear. MicroRNAs are important regulatory factors reflecting interface of genes and environment. Our aim was to identify characteristic microRNAs in FM and relations of specific microRNAs with characteristic symptoms. A total of 374 circulating microRNAs were measured in women with FM (n = 20; median 52.5 years) and healthy women (n = 20; 52.5 years) by quantitative PCR. Pain thresholds were examined by algometry. Pain [fibromyalgia impact questionnaire (FIQ) pain] levels were rated (0-100 mm) using FIQ. Fatigue (FIQ fatigue) was rated (0-100 mm) using FIQ and multidimensional fatigue inventory general fatigue. Sleep quantity and quality (1-4) rated from satisfactory to nonsatisfactory. Higher scores indicate more severe symptoms. Eight microRNAs differed significantly between FM and healthy women. Seven microRNAs, miR-103a-3p, miR-107, let-7a-5p, miR-30b-5p, miR-151a-5p, miR-142-3p and miR-374b-5p, were lower in FM. However, levels of miR-320a were higher in FM. MiR-103a-3p correlated with pain (r = 0.530, p = 0.016) and sleep quantity (r = 0.593, p = 0.006) in FM. MiR-320a correlated inversely with pain (r = -0.468, p = 0.037). MiR-374b-5p correlated inversely with pain threshold (r = -0.612, p = 0.004). MiR-30b-5p correlated with sleep quantity (r = 0.509, p = 0.022), and let-7a-5p was associated with sleep symptoms. When adjusted for body mass index, the correlation of sleep quantity with miR-103a and miR-30b was no longer significant. To our knowledge, this is the first study of circulating microRNAs in FM. Levels of several microRNAs differed significantly in FM compared to healthy women. Three microRNAs were associated with pain or pain threshold in FM.

36 CFR 910.18 - Vehicular circulation and storage systems.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... CORPORATION GENERAL GUIDELINES AND UNIFORM STANDARDS FOR URBAN PLANNING AND DESIGN OF DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE PENNSYLVANIA AVENUE DEVELOPMENT AREA Urban Planning and Design Concerns § 910.18 Vehicular circulation and...

Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness in the Netherlands from 2003/2004 through 2013/2014: The Importance of Circulating Influenza Virus Types and Subtypes

PubMed Central

Dijkstra, Frederika; van Doorn, Eva; Bijlsma, Maarten J.; Donker, Gé A.; de Lange, Marit M. A.; Cadenau, Laura M.; Hak, Eelko; Meijer, Adam

2017-01-01

Influenza vaccine effectiveness (IVE) varies over different influenza seasons and virus (sub)types/lineages. To assess the association between IVE and circulating influenza virus (sub)types/lineages, we estimated the overall and (sub)type specific IVE in the Netherlands. We conducted a test-negative case control study among subjects with influenza-like illness or acute respiratory tract infection consulting the Sentinel Practices over 11 influenza seasons (2003/2004 through 2013/2014) in the Netherlands. The adjusted IVE was estimated using generalized linear mixed modelling and multiple logistic regression. In seven seasons vaccine strains did not match the circulating viruses. Overall adjusted IVE was 40% (95% CI 18 to 56%) and 20% (95% CI -5 to 38%) when vaccine (partially)matched and mismatched the circulating viruses, respectively. When A(H3N2) was the predominant virus, IVE was 38% (95% CI 14 to 55%). IVE against infection with former seasonal A(H1N1) virus was 83% (95% CI 52 to 94%), and with B virus 67% (95% CI 55 to 76%). In conclusion IVE estimates were particularly low when vaccine mismatched the circulating viruses and A(H3N2) was the predominant influenza virus subtype. Tremendous effort is required to improve vaccine production procedure and to explore the factors that influence the IVE against A(H3N2) virus. PMID:28068386

GEOS-5 Chemistry Transport Model User's Guide

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kouatchou, J.; Molod, A.; Nielsen, J. E.; Auer, B.; Putman, W.; Clune, T.

2015-01-01

The Goddard Earth Observing System version 5 (GEOS-5) General Circulation Model (GCM) makes use of the Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF) to enable model configurations with many functions. One of the options of the GEOS-5 GCM is the GEOS-5 Chemistry Transport Model (GEOS-5 CTM), which is an offline simulation of chemistry and constituent transport driven by a specified meteorology and other model output fields. This document describes the basic components of the GEOS-5 CTM, and is a user's guide on to how to obtain and run simulations on the NCCS Discover platform. In addition, we provide information on how to change the model configuration input files to meet users' needs.

Selected translated abstracts of Russian-language climate-change publications. 4: General circulation models (in English;Russian)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Burtis, M.D.; Razuvaev, V.N.; Sivachok, S.G.

1996-10-01

This report presents English-translated abstracts of important Russian-language literature concerning general circulation models as they relate to climate change. Into addition to the bibliographic citations and abstracts translated into English, this report presents the original citations and abstracts in Russian. Author and title indexes are included to assist the reader in locating abstracts of particular interest.

High-resolution interpolation of climate scenarios for Canada derived from general circulation model simulations

Treesearch

D. T. Price; D. W. McKenney; L. A. Joyce; R. M. Siltanen; P. Papadopol; K. Lawrence

2011-01-01

Projections of future climate were selected for four well-established general circulation models (GCMs) forced by each of three greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenarios recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), namely scenarios A2, A1B, and B1 of the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. Monthly data for the period 1961-2100 were...

Analyses of Projected Changes in Climate for Sub-Saharan Africa Using a Variable-Resolution Atmospheric Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adegoke, J.; Engelbrecht, F.; Vezhapparambu, S.

2012-12-01

The conformal-cubic atmospheric model (CCAM) is employed in this study as a flexible downscaling tool at the climate-change time scale. In the downscaling procedure, the sea-ice and bias-corrected SSTs of 6 CGCMs (CSIRO Mk 3.5, GFDL2.1, GFDL2.0, HadCM2, ECHAM5 and Miroc-Medres) from AR4 of the IPCC were first used as lower-boundary forcing in CCAM simulations performed at a quasi-uniform resolution (about 200 km in the horizontal), which were subsequently downscaled to a resolution of about 60 km over southern and tropical Africa. All the simulations were for the A2 scenario of the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES), and for the period 1961-2100. The SST biases were derived by comparing the simulated and observed present-day climatol¬ogy of SSTs for 1979-1999 for each month of the year; the same monthly bias corrections were applied for the duration of the simulations. CCAM ensemble projected change in annual average temperature and Rainfall for 2071-2100 vs 1961-1990 for tropical Africa will be presented and discussed. In summary, a robust signal of drastic increases in surface temperature (more than 3 degrees C for the period 2071-2100 relative to 1961-1990) is projected across the domain. Temperature increases as large as 5 degrees C are projected over the subtropical regions in the north of the domain. Increase in rainfall over tropical Africa (for the period 2071-2100 relative to 1961-1990) is projected across the domain. This is consistent with an increase in moisture in a generally warmer atmosphere. There is a robust signal of drying along the West African coast - however, the CMIP3 CGCM projections indicate a wide range of possible rainfall futures over this region The projections of East Africa becoming wetter is robust across the CCAM ensemble, consistent with the CGCM projections of CMIP3 and AR4.

The Numerical Studies Program for the Atmospheric General Circulation Experiment (AGCE) for Spacelab Flights

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fowlis, W. W. (Editor); Davis, M. H. (Editor)

1981-01-01

The atmospheric general circulation experiment (AGCE) numerical design for Spacelab flights was studied. A spherical baroclinic flow experiment which models the large scale circulations of the Earth's atmosphere was proposed. Gravity is simulated by a radial dielectric body force. The major objective of the AGCE is to study nonlinear baroclinic wave flows in spherical geometry. Numerical models must be developed which accurately predict the basic axisymmetric states and the stability of nonlinear baroclinic wave flows. A three dimensional, fully nonlinear, numerical model and the AGCE based on the complete set of equations is required. Progress in the AGCE numerical design studies program is reported.

Metabolism of vertebrate amino sugars with N-glycolyl groups: mechanisms underlying gastrointestinal incorporation of the non-human sialic acid xeno-autoantigen N-glycolylneuraminic acid.

PubMed

Banda, Kalyan; Gregg, Christopher J; Chow, Renee; Varki, Nissi M; Varki, Ajit

2012-08-17

Although N-acetyl groups are common in nature, N-glycolyl groups are rare. Mammals express two major sialic acids, N-acetylneuraminic acid and N-glycolylneuraminic acid (Neu5Gc). Although humans cannot produce Neu5Gc, it is detected in the epithelial lining of hollow organs, endothelial lining of the vasculature, fetal tissues, and carcinomas. This unexpected expression is hypothesized to result via metabolic incorporation of Neu5Gc from mammalian foods. This accumulation has relevance for diseases associated with such nutrients, via interaction with Neu5Gc-specific antibodies. Little is known about how ingested sialic acids in general and Neu5Gc in particular are metabolized in the gastrointestinal tract. We studied the gastrointestinal and systemic fate of Neu5Gc-containing glycoproteins (Neu5Gc-glycoproteins) or free Neu5Gc in the Neu5Gc-free Cmah(-/-) mouse model. Ingested free Neu5Gc showed rapid absorption into the circulation and urinary excretion. In contrast, ingestion of Neu5Gc-glycoproteins led to Neu5Gc incorporation into the small intestinal wall, appearance in circulation at a steady-state level for several hours, and metabolic incorporation into multiple peripheral tissue glycoproteins and glycolipids, thus conclusively proving that Neu5Gc can be metabolically incorporated from food. Feeding Neu5Gc-glycoproteins but not free Neu5Gc mimics the human condition, causing tissue incorporation into human-like sites in Cmah(-/-) fetal and adult tissues, as well as developing tumors. Thus, glycoproteins containing glycosidically linked Neu5Gc are the likely dietary source for human tissue accumulation, and not the free monosaccharide. This human-like model can be used to elucidate specific mechanisms of Neu5Gc delivery from the gut to tissues, as well as general mechanisms of metabolism of ingested sialic acids.

Significance of hydrological model choice and land use changes when doing climate change impact assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bjørnholt Karlsson, Ida; Obel Sonnenborg, Torben; Refsgaard, Jens Christian; Høgh Jensen, Karsten

2014-05-01

Uncertainty in impact studies arises both from Global Climate Models (GCM), emission projections, statistical downscaling, Regional Climate Models (RCM), hydrological models and calibration techniques (Refsgaard et al. 2013). Some of these uncertainties have been evaluated several times in the literature; however few studies have investigated the effect of hydrological model choice on the assessment results (Boorman & Sefton 1997; Jiang et al. 2007; Bastola et al. 2011). These studies have found that model choice results in large differences, up to 70%, in the predicted discharge changes depending on the climate input. The objective of the study is to investigate the impact of climate change on hydrology of the Odense catchment, Denmark both in response to (a) different climate projections (GCM-RCM combinations); (b) different hydrological models and (c) different land use scenarios. This includes: 1. Separation of the climate model signal; the hydrological model signal and the land use signal 2. How do the different hydrological components react under different climate and land use conditions for the different models 3. What land use scenario seems to provide the best adaptation for the challenges of the different future climate change scenarios from a hydrological perspective? Four climate models from the ENSEMBLES project (Hewitt & Griggs 2004): ECHAM5 - HIRHAM5, ECHAM5 - RCA3, ARPEGE - RM5.1 and HadCM3 - HadRM3 are used, assessing the climate change impact in three periods: 1991-2010 (present), 2041-2060 (near future) and 2081-2100 (far future). The four climate models are used in combination with three hydrological models with different conceptual layout: NAM, SWAT and MIKE SHE. Bastola, S., C. Murphy and J. Sweeney (2011). "The role of hydrological modelling uncertainties in climate change impact assessments of Irish river catchments." Advances in Water Resources 34: 562-576. Boorman, D. B. and C. E. M. Sefton (1997). "Recognising the uncertainty in the quantification of the effects of climate change on hydrological response." Climate Change 35: 415-434. Hewitt, C. D. and D. J. Griggs (2004). "Ensembles-based predictions of climate changes and their impacts." Eos, Transactions American Geophysical Union 85: 1-566. Jiang, T., Y. D. Chen, C. Xu, X. Chen, X. Chen and V. P. Singh (2007). "Comparison of hydrological impacts of climate change simulated by six hydrological models in the Dongjiang Basin, South China." Journal of hydrology 336: 316-333. Refsgaard, J. C., K. Arnbjerg-Nielsen, M. Drews, K. Halsnæs, E. Jeppesen, H. Madsen, A. Markandya, J. E. Olesen, J. R. Porter and J. H. Christensen (2013). "The role of uncertainty in climate change adaptation strategies - A Danish water management example." Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 18: 337-359.

Prognostic impact of circulating plasma cells in patients with multiple myeloma: implications for plasma cell leukemia definition

PubMed Central

Granell, Miquel; Calvo, Xavier; Garcia-Guiñón, Antoni; Escoda, Lourdes; Abella, Eugènia; Martínez, Clara Mª; Teixidó, Montserrat; Gimenez, Mª Teresa; Senín, Alicia; Sanz, Patricia; Campoy, Desirée; Vicent, Ana; Arenillas, Leonor; Rosiñol, Laura; Sierra, Jorge; Bladé, Joan; de Larrea, Carlos Fernández

2017-01-01

The presence of circulating plasma cells in patients with multiple myeloma is considered a marker for highly proliferative disease. In the study herein, the impact of circulating plasma cells assessed by cytology on survival of patients with multiple myeloma was analyzed. Wright-Giemsa stained peripheral blood smears of 482 patients with newly diagnosed myeloma or plasma cell leukemia were reviewed and patients were classified into 4 categories according to the percentage of circulating plasma cells: 0%, 1–4%, 5–20%, and plasma cell leukemia with the following frequencies: 382 (79.2%), 83 (17.2%), 12 (2.5%) and 5 (1.0%), respectively. Median overall survival according to the circulating plasma cells group was 47, 50, 6 and 14 months, respectively. At multivariate analysis, the presence of 5 to 20% circulating plasma cells was associated with a worse overall survival (relative risk 4.9, 95% CI 2.6–9.3) independently of age, creatinine, the Durie-Salmon system stage and the International Staging System (ISS) stage. Patients with ≥5% circulating plasma cells had lower platelet counts (median 86×109/L vs. 214×109/L, P<0.0001) and higher bone marrow plasma cells (median 53% vs. 36%, P=0.004). The presence of ≥5% circulating plasma cells in patients with multiple myeloma has a similar adverse prognostic impact as plasma cell leukemia. PMID:28255016

Evaluation of the Surface Representation of the Greenland Ice Sheet in a General Circulation Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cullather, Richard I.; Nowicki, Sophie M. J.; Zhao, Bin; Suarez, Max J.

2014-01-01

Simulated surface conditions of the Goddard Earth Observing System model, version 5 (GEOS 5) atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) are examined for the contemporary Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS). A surface parameterization that explicitly models surface processes including snow compaction, meltwater percolation and refreezing, and surface albedo is found to remedy an erroneous deficit in the annual net surface energy flux and provide an adequate representation of surface mass balance (SMB) in an evaluation using simulations at two spatial resolutions. The simulated 1980-2008 GrIS SMB average is 24.7+/-4.5 cm yr(- 1) water-equivalent (w.e.) at.5 degree model grid spacing, and 18.2+/-3.3 cm yr(- 1) w.e. for 2 degree grid spacing. The spatial variability and seasonal cycle of the simulation compare favorably to recent studies using regional climate models, while results from 2 degree integrations reproduce the primary features of the SMB field. In comparison to historical glaciological observations, the coarser resolution model overestimates accumulation in the southern areas of the GrIS, while the overall SMB is underestimated. These changes relate to the sensitivity of accumulation and melt to the resolution of topography. The GEOS-5 SMB fields contrast with available corresponding atmospheric models simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). It is found that only a few of the CMIP5 AGCMs examined provide significant summertime runoff, a dominant feature of the GrIS seasonal cycle. This is a condition that will need to be remedied if potential contributions to future eustatic change from polar ice sheets are to be examined with GCMs.

Scales of variability of black carbon plumes and their dependence on resolution of ECHAM6-HAM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weigum, Natalie; Stier, Philip; Schutgens, Nick; Kipling, Zak

2015-04-01

Prediction of the aerosol effect on climate depends on the ability of three-dimensional numerical models to accurately estimate aerosol properties. However, a limitation of traditional grid-based models is their inability to resolve variability on scales smaller than a grid box. Past research has shown that significant aerosol variability exists on scales smaller than these grid-boxes, which can lead to discrepancies between observations and aerosol models. The aim of this study is to understand how a global climate model's (GCM) inability to resolve sub-grid scale variability affects simulations of important aerosol features. This problem is addressed by comparing observed black carbon (BC) plume scales from the HIPPO aircraft campaign to those simulated by ECHAM-HAM GCM, and testing how model resolution affects these scales. This study additionally investigates how model resolution affects BC variability in remote and near-source regions. These issues are examined using three different approaches: comparison of observed and simulated along-flight-track plume scales, two-dimensional autocorrelation analysis, and 3-dimensional plume analysis. We find that the degree to which GCMs resolve variability can have a significant impact on the scales of BC plumes, and it is important for models to capture the scales of aerosol plume structures, which account for a large degree of aerosol variability. In this presentation, we will provide further results from the three analysis techniques along with a summary of the implication of these results on future aerosol model development.

Summer Study Program in Geophysical Fluid Dynamics 1989. General Circulation of the Oceans

DTIC Science & Technology

1989-11-01

Description of the Surface Circulation 2.2 A Description of the Interior Circulation 2.3 Formation Sites and Circulation of Deepwater Masses 2.4 Mode...and atmosphere, we have to follow basic laws of physics which lead us to try to solve a series of conservation equations, Mass : Dp*+ P() Du. - , ’ O.j...r~--~)(18) where,= vorticity 0 - 1 Vertically integrated mass conservation gives which leads to T.3) (19) Using the fact that Ro, ;<<I, the lowest

3D General Circulation Model of the Middle Atmosphere of Jupiter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zube, Nicholas Gerard; Zhang, Xi; Li, Cheng; Le, Tianhao

2017-10-01

The characteristics of Jupiter’s large-scale stratospheric circulation remain largely unknown. Detailed distributions of temperature and photochemical species have been provided by recent observations [1], but have not yet been accurately reproduced by middle atmosphere general circulation models (GCM). Jupiter’s stratosphere and upper troposphere are influenced by radiative forcing from solar insolation and infrared cooling from hydrogen and hydrocarbons, as well as waves propagating from the underlying troposphere [2]. The relative significance of radiative and mechanical forcing on stratospheric circulation is still being debated [3]. Here we present a 3D GCM of Jupiter’s atmosphere with a correlated-k radiative transfer scheme. The simulation results are compared with observations. We analyze the impact of model parameters on the stratospheric temperature distribution and dynamical features. Finally, we discuss future tracer transport and gravity wave parameterization schemes that may be able to accurately simulate the middle atmosphere dynamics of Jupiter and other giant planets.[1] Kunde et al. 2004, Science 305, 1582.[2] Zhang et al. 2013a, EGU General Assembly, EGU2013-5797-2.[3] Conrath 1990, Icarus, 83, 255-281.

New inner boundaries of the habitable zones around M dwarfs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bin, Jiayu; Tian, Feng; Liu, Lei

2018-06-01

Two general circulation models CAM4 and CAM5 are used to study the climate of ocean planets around M dwarfs with different effective temperatures. The atmospheres in CAM5 simulations are warmer and contain more water vapor than those in CAM4 under identical model settings, a result likely caused by improved treatments of radiation and possibly clouds in CAM5. The inner boundary of the habitable zones of M dwarfs based on CAM5 simulations, expressed as a second order polynomial function, are farther away from the stars than what are suggested by previous works and the corresponding atmospheres are in the moist greenhouse state.

CMIP5 Historical Simulations (1850-2012) with GISS ModelE2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Miller, Ronald Lindsay; Schmidt, Gavin A.; Nazarenko, Larissa S.; Tausnev, Nick; Bauer, Susanne E.; DelGenio, Anthony D.; Kelley, Max; Lo, Ken K.; Ruedy, Reto; Shindell, Drew T.;

Integrated and spectral energetics of the GLAS general circulation model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tenenbaum, J.

1981-01-01

Integrated and spectral error energetics of the Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheric Sciences (GLAS) general circulation model are compared with observations for periods in January 1975, 1976, and 1977. For two cases the model shows significant skill in predicting integrated energetics quantities out to two weeks, and for all three cases, the integrated monthly mean energetics show qualitative improvements over previous versions of the model in eddy kinetic energy and barotropic conversions. Fundamental difficulties remain with leakage of energy to the stratospheric level. General circulation model spectral energetics predictions are compared with the corresponding observational spectra on a day by day basis. Eddy kinetic energy can be correct while significant errors occur in the kinetic energy of wavenumber three. Single wavenumber dominance in eddy kinetic energy and the correlation of spectral kinetic and potential energy are demonstrated.

Representation of Clear and Cloudy Boundary Layers in Climate Models. Chapter 14

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Randall, D. A.; Shao, Q.; Branson, M.

1997-01-01

The atmospheric general circulation models which are being used as components of climate models rely on their boundary layer parameterizations to produce realistic simulations of the surface turbulent fluxes of sensible heat. moisture. and momentum: of the boundary-layer depth over which these fluxes converge: of boundary layer cloudiness: and of the interactions of the boundary layer with the deep convective clouds that grow upwards from it. Two current atmospheric general circulation models are used as examples to show how these requirements are being addressed: these are version 3 of the Community Climate Model. which has been developed at the U.S. National Center for Atmospheric Research. and the Colorado State University atmospheric general circulation model. The formulations and results of both models are discussed. Finally, areas for future research are suggested.

Sea-surface circulation, sediment transport, and marine mammal distribution, Alaska continental shelf

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wright, F. F. (Principal Investigator); Sharma, G. D.; Burns, J. J.

1973-01-01

The author has identified the following significant results. Even though nonsynchronous, the ERTS-1 imagery of November 4, 1972, showed a striking similarity to the ground truth data obtained in late August and September, 1972. The comparison of the images with ground truth data revealed that the general water circulation pattern in Lower Cook Inlet is consistent through the Fall season and that ERTS-1 images in MSS bands 4 and 5 are capable of delineating water masses with a suspended load as low as 1 mg/liter. The ERTS-1 data and the ground truth data demonstrate clearly that the coriolis effect dominates circulation in Lower Cook Inlet. The configuration of plumes in Nushagak and Kuskokwim bays further indicates the influence of the coriolis effect on the movement of sea water at high latitudes. Comparison of MSS bands 4, 5, 6, and 7 suggest MSS-1 penetration of several meters into the water column. Sea ice analysis of available imagery was exceptionally rewarding. The imagery provided a rapid method to delineate and describe the ice types apparent in the photos. The ice types ranged from newly formed grease ice to heavy flows of disintegrating shore-fast ice. Sea ice maps showing the extent of different ice zones in the Chukchi Sea are being compiled.

Circulating Plasma microRNAs can differentiate Human Sepsis and Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome (SIRS).

PubMed

Caserta, Stefano; Kern, Florian; Cohen, Jonathan; Drage, Stephen; Newbury, Sarah F; Llewelyn, Martin J

2016-06-20

Systemic inflammation in humans may be triggered by infection, termed sepsis, or non-infective processes, termed non-infective systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS). MicroRNAs regulate cellular processes including inflammation and may be detected in blood. We aimed to establish definitive proof-of-principle that circulating microRNAs are differentially affected during sepsis and non-infective SIRS. Critically ill patients with severe (n = 21) or non-severe (n = 8) intra-abdominal sepsis; severe (n = 23) or non-severe (n = 21) non-infective SIRS; or no SIRS (n = 16) were studied. Next-generation sequencing and qRT-PCR were used to measure plasma microRNAs. Detectable blood miRNAs (n = 116) were generally up-regulated in SIRS compared to no-SIRS patients. Levels of these 'circulating inflammation-related microRNAs' (CIR-miRNAs) were 2.64 (IQR: 2.10-3.29) and 1.52 (IQR: 1.15-1.92) fold higher for non-infective SIRS and sepsis respectively (p < 0.0001), hence CIR-miRNAs appeared less abundant in sepsis than in SIRS. Six CIR-miRNAs (miR-30d-5p, miR-30a-5p, miR-192-5p, miR-26a-5p, miR-23a-5p, miR-191-5p) provided good-to-excellent discrimination of severe sepsis from severe SIRS (0.742-0.917 AUC of ROC curves). CIR-miRNA levels inversely correlated with pro-inflammatory cytokines (IL-1, IL-6 and others). Thus, among critically ill patients, sepsis and non-infective SIRS are associated with substantial, differential changes in CIR-miRNAs. CIR-miRNAs may be regulators of inflammation and warrant thorough evaluation as diagnostic and therapeutic targets.

High resolution interpolation of climate scenarios for the conterminous USA and Alaska derived from general circulation model simulations

Treesearch

Linda A. Joyce; David T. Price; Daniel W. McKenney; R. Martin Siltanen; Pia Papadopol; Kevin Lawrence; David P. Coulson

2011-01-01

Projections of future climate were selected for four well-established general circulation models (GCM) forced by each of three greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenarios, namely A2, A1B, and B1 from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). Monthly data for the period 1961-2100 were downloaded mainly from the web...

Spectrum Analysis of Inertial and Subinertial Motions Based on Analyzed Winds and Wind-Driven Currents from a Primitive Equation General Ocean Circulation Model.

DTIC Science & Technology

1982-12-01

1Muter.Te Motions Based on Ana lyzed Winds and wind-driven December 1982 Currents from. a Primitive Squat ion General a.OW -love"*..* Oean Circulation...mew se"$ (comeS.... do oISN..u am ae~ 00do OWaor NUN Fourier and Rotary Spc , Analysis Modeled Inertial and Subinrtial Motion 4 Primitive Equation

Seasonal changes in the atmospheric heat balance simulated by the GISS general circulation model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stone, P. H.; Chow, S.; Helfand, H. M.; Quirk, W. J.; Somerville, R. C. J.

1975-01-01

Tests of the ability of numerical general circulation models to simulate the atmosphere have focussed so far on simulations of the January climatology. These models generally present boundary conditions such as sea surface temperature, but this does not prevent testing their ability to simulate seasonal changes in atmospheric processes that accompany presented seasonal changes in boundary conditions. Experiments to simulate changes in the zonally averaged heat balance are discussed since many simplified models of climatic processes are based solely on this balance.

Absence of the genicular arterial anastomosis as generally depicted in textbooks.

PubMed

Sabalbal, M; Johnson, M; McAlister, V

2013-09-01

Textbook representations of the genicular arterial anastomosis show a large direct communication between the descending branch of the lateral circumflex femoral artery (DBLCFA) and a genicular branch of the popliteal artery but this is not compatible with clinical experience. The aim of this study was to determine whether the arterial anastomosis at the knee is sufficient, in the event of traumatic disruption of the superficial femoral artery, to infuse protective agents or to place a stent to restore flow to the lower leg. Dissection of ten cadaveric lower limbs was performed to photograph the arterial anatomy from the inguinal ligament to the tibial tubercle. Anastomosis with branches of the popliteal artery was classified as: 'direct communication', 'approaching communication' or 'no evident communication'. A constant descending artery in the lateral thigh (LDAT) was found to have five types of origin: Type 1 (2/10 limbs) involved the lateral circumflex femoral branch of the femoral artery, Type 2 (3/10 limbs) the lateral circumflex femoral branch of the profunda femoris artery, Type 3 (1/10 limbs) the femoral artery, Type 4 (3/10 limbs) the superficial femoral artery and Type 5 (2/10 limbs) the profunda femoris artery. In one limb, there were two descending arteries (Types 4 and 5). Collateral circulation at the knee was also variable: direct communicating vessels (3/10 limbs); approaching vessels with possible communication via capillaries (5/10 limbs); no evident communication (2/10 limbs). Communicating vessels, if present, are too small to provide immediate collateral circulation. Modern representations of the genicular arterial anastomosis are inaccurate, derived commonly from an idealised image that first appeared Gray's Anatomy in 1910. The afferent vessel is not the DBLCFA. The majority of subjects have the potential to recruit collateral circulation via the LDAT following gradual obstruction to normal arterial flow, which may be important if the LDAT is removed for bypass or flap surgery. A direct communication is rarely present and is never as robust as generally depicted in textbooks.

Evaluating Antarctic sea ice predictability at seasonal to interannual timescales in global climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marchi, Sylvain; Fichefet, Thierry; Goosse, Hugues; Zunz, Violette; Tietsche, Steffen; Day, Jonny; Hawkins, Ed

2016-04-01

Unlike the rapid sea ice losses reported in the Arctic, satellite observations show an overall increase in Antarctic sea ice extent over recent decades. Although many processes have already been suggested to explain this positive trend, it remains the subject of current investigations. Understanding the evolution of the Antarctic sea ice turns out to be more complicated than for the Arctic for two reasons: the lack of observations and the well-known biases of climate models in the Southern Ocean. Irrespective of those issues, another one is to determine whether the positive trend in sea ice extent would have been predictable if adequate observations and models were available some decades ago. This study of Antarctic sea ice predictability is carried out using 6 global climate models (HadGEM1.2, MPI-ESM-LR, GFDL CM3, EC-Earth V2, MIROC 5.2 and ECHAM 6-FESOM) which are all part of the APPOSITE project. These models are used to perform hindcast simulations in a perfect model approach. The predictive skill is estimated thanks to the PPP (Potential Prognostic Predictability) and the ACC (Anomaly Correlation Coefficient). The former is a measure of the uncertainty of the ensemble while the latter assesses the accuracy of the prediction. These two indicators are applied to different variables related to sea ice, in particular the total sea ice extent and the ice edge location. This first model intercomparison study about sea ice predictability in the Southern Ocean aims at giving a general overview of Antarctic sea ice predictability in current global climate models.

A numerical circulation model with topography for the Martian Southern Hemisphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mass, C.; Sagan, C.

1975-01-01

A quasi-geostrophic numerical model, including friction, radiation, and the observed planetary topography, is applied to the general circulation of the Martian atmosphere in the Southern Hemisphere at latitudes south of about 35 deg. Near equilibrium weather systems developed after about 5 model days. To avoid violating the quasi-geostrophic approximation, only 0.8 of the already smoothed relief was employed. Weather systems and velocity fields are strikingly tied to topography. A 2mb middle latitude jet stream is found of remarkably terrestrial aspect. Highest surface velocities, both horizontal and vertical, are predicted in western Hellas Planitia and eastern Argyre Planitia, which are observed to be preferred sites of origin of major Martian dust storms. Mean horizontal velocities and vertical velocities are found just above the surface velocity boundary layer.

An investigation of anticyclonic circulation in the southern Gulf of Riga during the spring period

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soosaar, Edith; Maljutenko, Ilja; Raudsepp, Urmas; Elken, Jüri

2014-04-01

Previous studies of the gulf-type Region of Freshwater Influence (ROFI) have shown that circulation near the area of freshwater inflow sometimes becomes anticyclonic. Such a circulation is different from basic coastal ocean buoyancy-driven circulation where an anticyclonic bulge develops near the source and a coastal current is established along the right hand coast (in the northern hemisphere), resulting in the general cyclonic circulation. The spring (from March to June) circulation and spreading of river discharge water in the southern Gulf of Riga (GoR) in the Baltic Sea was analyzed based on the results of a 10-year simulation (1997-2006) using the General Estuarine Transport Model (GETM). Monthly mean currents in the upper layer of the GoR revealed a double gyre structure dominated either by an anticyclonic or cyclonic gyre in the near-head southeastern part and corresponding cyclonic/anticyclonic gyre in the near-mouth northwestern part of the gulf. Time series analysis of PCA and vorticity, calculated from velocity data and model sensitivity tests, showed that in spring the anticyclonic circulation in the upper layer of the southern GoR is driven primarily by the estuarine type density field. This anticyclonic circulation is enhanced by easterly winds but blocked or even reversed by westerly winds. The estuarine type density field is maintained by salt flux in the northwestern connection to the Baltic Proper and river discharge in the southern GoR.

An investigation of anticyclonic circulation in the southern Gulf of Riga during the spring period

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soosaar, Edith; Maljutenko, Ilja; Raudsepp, Urmas; Elken, Jüri

2015-04-01

Previous studies of the gulf-type Region of Freshwater Influence (ROFI) have shown that circulation near the area of freshwater inflow sometimes becomes anticyclonic. Such a circulation is different from basic coastal ocean buoyancy-driven circulation where an anticyclonic bulge develops near the source and a coastal current is established along the right hand coast (in the northern hemisphere), resulting in the general cyclonic circulation. The spring (from March to June) circulation and spreading of river discharge water in the southern Gulf of Riga (GoR) in the Baltic Sea was analyzed based on the results of a 10-year simulation (1997-2006) using the General Estuarine Transport Model (GETM). Monthly mean currents in the upper layer of the GoR revealed a double gyre structure dominated either by an anticyclonic or cyclonic gyre in the near-head southeastern part and corresponding cyclonic/anticyclonic gyre in the near-mouth northwestern part of the gulf. Time series analysis of PCA and vorticity, calculated from velocity data and model sensitivity tests, showed that in spring the anticyclonic circulation in the upper layer of the southern GoR is driven primarily by the estuarine type density field. This anticyclonic circulation is enhanced by easterly winds but blocked or even reversed by westerly winds. The estuarine type density field is maintained by salt flux in the northwestern connection to the Baltic Proper and river discharge in the southern GoR.

Development of allergy and IgE antibodies during the first five years of life in Estonian children.

PubMed

Julge, K; Vasar, M; Björkstén, B

2001-12-01

Epidemiological studies have demonstrated a low prevalence of allergic diseases and atopic sensitization among schoolchildren and young adults in the formerly socialist countries of Central and Eastern Europe as compared to Western Europe. The aim of our study was to prospectively investigate IgE responses to food and inhalant allergens and the development of allergy during early childhood in a population with a low prevalence of atopic disorders. In a population-based prospective study, 273 children were followed from birth through the first 5 years of life, recording manifestations of allergy by questionnaires and clinical examinations at 0.5, 1, 2 and 5 years (n = 213). Skin prick tests (SPT) were performed using natural foods (cow's milk, egg white) and commercial extracts of inhaled allergens (cat, dog, D. pteronyssinus, birch, timothy). In addition, serum IgE levels and circulating IgE antibodies against the seven allergens were determined. The prevalence of allergic diseases at 5 years of life was 19%. Atopic dermatitis was the most common allergic disease at all ages. The point prevalence of positive skin prick tests was 7% at 0.5, 1 and 2 years of age, and 3% at 5 years. Circulating IgE antibodies against food allergens were common at all ages, i.e. 13, 23, 36 and 36%, respectively, at 0.5, 1, 2 and 5 years. The prevalence of circulating IgE antibodies to inhalant allergens increased from 1.5% at 0.5 years to 11% at 1, 19% at 2 and 47% at 5 years. The antibody levels were generally low, however. The value of positive SPT and the presence of IgE antibodies in the diagnosis of clinical allergy were low. The results of this prospective study carried out in a previously socialist country with a low allergy prevalence among schoolchildren and young adults indicate that transient sensitization in early childhood is followed by a down-regulation of skin reactivity.

The puzzling Venusian polar atmospheric structure reproduced by a general circulation model

PubMed Central

Ando, Hiroki; Sugimoto, Norihiko; Takagi, Masahiro; Kashimura, Hiroki; Imamura, Takeshi; Matsuda, Yoshihisa

2016-01-01

Unlike the polar vortices observed in the Earth, Mars and Titan atmospheres, the observed Venus polar vortex is warmer than the midlatitudes at cloud-top levels (∼65 km). This warm polar vortex is zonally surrounded by a cold latitude band located at ∼60° latitude, which is a unique feature called ‘cold collar' in the Venus atmosphere. Although these structures have been observed in numerous previous observations, the formation mechanism is still unknown. Here we perform numerical simulations of the Venus atmospheric circulation using a general circulation model, and succeed in reproducing these puzzling features in close agreement with the observations. The cold collar and warm polar region are attributed to the residual mean meridional circulation enhanced by the thermal tide. The present results strongly suggest that the thermal tide is crucial for the structure of the Venus upper polar atmosphere at and above cloud levels. PMID:26832195

Two phase gap cooling of an electrical machine

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shoykhet, Boris A.

2016-10-04

An electro-dynamic machine has a rotor and stator with a gap therebetween. The machine has a frame defining a hollow interior with end cavities on axially opposite ends of the frame. A gas circulating system has an inlet that supplies high pressure gas to the frame interior and an outlet to collect gas passing therethrough. A liquid coolant circulating system has an inlet that supplies coolant to the frame interior and an outlet that collects coolant passing therethrough. The coolant inlet and gas inlet are generally located on the frame in a manner to allow coolant from the coolant inletmore » to flow with gas from the gas inlet to the gap. The coolant outlet and gas outlet are generally located on the frame in a manner to allow the coolant to be separated from the gas with the separated coolant and gas collected for circulation through their respective circulating systems.« less

Trend Estimates of AERONET-Observed and Model-Simulated AOTs Between 1993 and 2013

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yoon, J.; Pozzer, A.; Chang, D. Y.; Lelieveld, J.; Kim, J.; Kim, M.; Lee, Y. G.; Koo, J.-H.; Lee, J.; Moon, K. J.

2015-01-01

Recently, temporal changes in Aerosol Optical Thickness (AOT) have been investigated based on model simulations, satellite and ground-based observations. Most AOT trend studies used monthly or annual arithmetic means that discard details of the generally right-skewed AOT distributions. Potentially, such results can be biased by extreme values (including outliers). This study additionally uses percentiles (i.e., the lowest 5%, 25%, 50%, 75% and 95% of the monthly cumulative distributions fitted to Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET)-observed and ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC)-model simulated AOTs) that are less affected by outliers caused by measurement error, cloud contamination and occasional extreme aerosol events. Since the limited statistical representativeness of monthly percentiles and means can lead to bias, this study adopts the number of observations as a weighting factor, which improves the statistical robustness of trend estimates. By analyzing the aerosol composition of AERONET-observed and EMAC-simulated AOTs in selected regions of interest, we distinguish the dominant aerosol types and investigate the causes of regional AOT trends. The simulated and observed trends are generally consistent with a high correlation coefficient (R = 0.89) and small bias (slope+/-2(sigma) = 0.75 +/- 0.19). A significant decrease in EMAC-decomposed AOTs by water-soluble compounds and black carbon is found over the USA and the EU due to environmental regulation. In particular, a clear reversal in the AERONET AOT trend percentiles is found over the USA, probably related to the AOT diurnal cycle and the frequency of wildfires. In most of the selected regions of interest, EMAC-simulated trends are mainly attributed to the significant changes of the dominant aerosols; e.g., significant decrease in sea salt and water soluble compounds over Central America, increase in dust over Northern Africa and Middle East, and decrease in black carbon and organic carbon over Australia.

Prognostic impact of circulating plasma cells in patients with multiple myeloma: implications for plasma cell leukemia definition.

PubMed

Granell, Miquel; Calvo, Xavier; Garcia-Guiñón, Antoni; Escoda, Lourdes; Abella, Eugènia; Martínez, Clara Mª; Teixidó, Montserrat; Gimenez, Mª Teresa; Senín, Alicia; Sanz, Patricia; Campoy, Desirée; Vicent, Ana; Arenillas, Leonor; Rosiñol, Laura; Sierra, Jorge; Bladé, Joan; de Larrea, Carlos Fernández

2017-06-01

The presence of circulating plasma cells in patients with multiple myeloma is considered a marker for highly proliferative disease. In the study herein, the impact of circulating plasma cells assessed by cytology on survival of patients with multiple myeloma was analyzed. Wright-Giemsa stained peripheral blood smears of 482 patients with newly diagnosed myeloma or plasma cell leukemia were reviewed and patients were classified into 4 categories according to the percentage of circulating plasma cells: 0%, 1-4%, 5-20%, and plasma cell leukemia with the following frequencies: 382 (79.2%), 83 (17.2%), 12 (2.5%) and 5 (1.0%), respectively. Median overall survival according to the circulating plasma cells group was 47, 50, 6 and 14 months, respectively. At multivariate analysis, the presence of 5 to 20% circulating plasma cells was associated with a worse overall survival (relative risk 4.9, 95% CI 2.6-9.3) independently of age, creatinine, the Durie-Salmon system stage and the International Staging System (ISS) stage. Patients with ≥5% circulating plasma cells had lower platelet counts (median 86×10 9 /L vs 214×10 9 /L, P <0.0001) and higher bone marrow plasma cells (median 53% vs 36%, P =0.004). The presence of ≥5% circulating plasma cells in patients with multiple myeloma has a similar adverse prognostic impact as plasma cell leukemia. Copyright© Ferrata Storti Foundation.

Theoretical and experimental design studies for the Atmospheric General Circulation Experiment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fowlis, W. W.; Hathaway, D. H.; Miller, T. L.; Roberts, G. O.; Kopecky, K. J.

1985-01-01

The major criterion for the Atmospheric General Circulation Experiment (AGCE) design is that it be possible to realize strong baroclinic instability in the spherical configuration chosen. A configuration was selected in which a hemispherical shell of fluid is subjected to latitudinal temperature gradients on its spherical boundaries and the latitudinal boundaries are insulators. Work in the laboratory with a cylindrical version of this configuration revealed more instabilities than baroclinic instability. Since researchers fully expect these additional instabilities to appear in the spherical configuration also, they decided to continue the laboratory cylindrical annulus studies. Four flow regimes were identified: an axisymmetric Hadley circulation, boundary layer convection, baroclinic waves and deep thermal convection. Regime diagrams were prepared.

Impact of satellite-based data on FGGE general circulation statistics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Salstein, David A.; Rosen, Richard D.; Baker, Wayman E.; Kalnay, Eugenia

1987-01-01

The NASA Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheres (GLA) analysis/forecast system was run in two different parallel modes in order to evaluate the influence that data from satellites and other FGGE observation platforms can have on analyses of large scale circulation; in the first mode, data from all observation systems were used, while in the second only conventional upper air and surface reports were used. The GLA model was also integrated for the same period without insertion of any data; an independent objective analysis based only on rawinsonde and pilot balloon data is also performed. A small decrease in the vigor of the general circulation is noted to follow from the inclusion of satellite observations.

A January angular momentum balance in the OSU two-level atmospheric general circulation model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kim, J.-W.; Grady, W.

1982-01-01

The present investigation is concerned with an analysis of the atmospheric angular momentum balance, based on the simulation data of the Oregon State University two-level atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM). An attempt is also made to gain an understanding of the involved processes. Preliminary results on the angular momentum and mass balance in the AGCM are shown. The basic equations are examined, and questions of turbulent momentum transfer are investigated. The methods of analysis are discussed, taking into account time-averaged balance equations, time and longitude-averaged balance equations, mean meridional circulation, the mean meridional balance of relative angular momentum, and standing and transient components of motion.

Circulating CXCR5+CD4+ T cells participate in the IgE accumulation in allergic asthma.

PubMed

Gong, Fang; Zhu, Hua-Yan; Zhu, Jie; Dong, Qiao-Jing; Huang, Xuan; Jiang, Dong-Jin

2018-05-01

The pathogenesis of allergic asthma is primarily characterized by abnormality in immunoglobin(Ig)E pathway, suggesting a possible role for follicular helper T cells (Tfh) in the genesis of excessive IgE accumulation. The blood chemokine (C-X-C motif) receptor 5 (CXCR)5 + CD4 + T cells, known as "circulating" Tfh, share common functional characteristics with Tfh cells from germinal centers. The aim of this study was to determine the phenotypes and functions of circulating CXCR5 + CD4 + T cells in allergic asthmatics. Here we found the frequency of the circulating CXCR5 + CD4 + T cells was raised in allergic asthma compared with healthy control (HC). Phenotypic assays showed that activated circulating CXCR5 + CD4 + T cells display the key features of Tfh cells, including invariably coexpressed programmed cell death (PD)-1 and inducible costimulator (ICOS). The frequency of interleukin IL-4 + -, IL-21 + -producing CXCR5 + CD4 + T cells was increased in allergic asthma patients compared with HC. Furthermore, sorted circulating CXCR5 + CD4 + T cells from allergic asthma patients boosted IgE production in coculture assay which could be inhibited by IL-4 or IL-21 blockage. Interestingly, IL-4 + -, IL-21 + -CXCR5 + CD4 + T cells positively correlated with total IgE in the blood. Our data indicated that circulating CXCR5 + CD4 + T cells may have a significant role in facilitating IgE production in allergic asthma patients. Copyright © 2018 European Federation of Immunological Societies. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Renewed circulation scheme of the Baltic Sea - based on the 40-year simulation with GETM.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maljutenko, Ilja; Raudsepp, Urmas

2015-04-01

The general circulation of the Baltic Sea has been characterized as cyclonic in all sub-basins based on numerous measurements and model simulations. From the long-term hydrodynamical simulation our model results have verified the general cyclonic circulation in the Baltic Proper and in the Gulf of Bothnia, but the Gulf of Finland and the Gulf of Riga have shown tendency to anticyclonic circulation. We have applied the General Estuarine Transport Model ( GETM ) for the period of 1966 - 2006 with a 1 nautical mile horizontal resolution and density adaptive bottom following vertical coordinates to make it possible to simulate horizontal and vertical density gradients with better precision. The atmospheric forcing from dynamically downscaled ERA40-HIRLAM and parametrized lateral boundary conditions are applied. Model simulation show close agreement with measurements conducted in the main monitoring stations in the BS during the simulation period. The geostrophic adjustment of density driven currents along with the upward salinity flux due to entrainment could explain the anticyclonic circulation and strong coastal current. Mean vertical velocities show that upward and downward movements are forming closed vertical circulation loops along the bottom slope of the Baltic Proper and the Gulf of Bothnia. The model has also reproduced patchy vertical movement across the BS with some distinctive areas of upward advective fluxes in the GoF along the thalweg. The distinctive areas of deepwater upwelling are also evident in the Gdansk Basin, western Gotland Basin, northern Gotland Basin and in the northen part of the Bothnia Sea.

Plausible Effect of Weather on Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation with a Coupled General Circulation Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Zedong; Wan, Xiuquan

2018-04-01

The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is a vital component of the global ocean circulation and the heat engine of the climate system. Through the use of a coupled general circulation model, this study examines the role of synoptic systems on the AMOC and presents evidence that internally generated high-frequency, synoptic-scale weather variability in the atmosphere could play a significant role in maintaining the overall strength and variability of the AMOC, thereby affecting climate variability and change. Results of a novel coupling technique show that the strength and variability of the AMOC are greatly reduced once the synoptic weather variability is suppressed in the coupled model. The strength and variability of the AMOC are closely linked to deep convection events at high latitudes, which could be strongly affected by the weather variability. Our results imply that synoptic weather systems are important in driving the AMOC and its variability. Thus, interactions between atmospheric weather variability and AMOC may be an important feedback mechanism of the global climate system and need to be taken into consideration in future climate change studies.

Visible light optical coherence tomography for microvascular oximetry in ocular circulation (Conference Presentation)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Siyu; Yi, Ji; Zhang, Hao F.

2016-03-01

Visible light optical coherence tomography (vis-OCT) is intrinsically capable of optical determination of blood oxygen saturation (sO2). Thanks to its 3D sectioning ability, confounding factors that plaque multi-wavelength fundus photography can be avoided. We further supplemented it with motion-enhanced angiography (vis-OCTA), which allowed us to resolve retinal micro vessels without losing spectral information. As a result, spectroscopic vis-OCTA can extract microvascular sO2 which are generally inaccessible. Here we extend the theoretical formulation of vis-OCTA oximetry to include optical attenuation, scattering and motion contrast. The model allows robust estimation of sO2, while also promising reduction of illuminating power to 1/3 of current value of ~1 mW. To demonstrate the capability of our approach, we performed oxygen challenge while taking vis-OCTA measurements on rat ocular circulation in vivo. We supplied the experiment animal with the following gas mixture: normal air, 5% CO2 air, pure O2 and 10% O2 air. For each inhalation gas, the OCTA measurements were compared with peripheral capillary sO2 (spO2) provided by a pulse oximeter. The retinal artery sO2 measurements corresponded well with spO2 reading as expected (R2 = 0.87). We found that both retinal and choroidal circulation sO2 moderately increased when we supplied 5% CO2 air. 100% O2 inhalation significantly increased both artery and vein oxygenation. On the contrary, 10% O2 air could deplete the oxygen reservoir in the circulation and lead to low sO2 readings.

Passive, off-axis convection through the southern flank of the Costa Rica rift

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fisher, A.T.; Becker, K.; Narasimhan, T.N.

1990-06-10

Pore fluids are passively convecting through young oceanic sediments and crust around Deep Sea Drilling Project (DSDP) site 504 on the southern flank of the Costa Rica Rift, as inferred from a variety of geological, geochemical, and geothermal observations. The presence of a fluid circulation system is supported by new data collected on Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) leg 111 and a predrilling survey cruise over the heavily sedimented, 5.9 Ma site; during the latter, elongated heat flow anomalies were mapped subparallel to structural strike, with individual measurements of twice the regional mean value, and strong lateral and vertical geochemical gradientsmore » were detected in pore waters squeezed from sediment cores. Also, there is a strong correlation between heat flow, bathymetry, sediment thickness, and inferred fluid velocities up through the sediments. Although the forces which drive passive circulation are not well understood, it has generally been thought that the length scale of heat flow variations provides a good indication of the depth of hydrothermal circulation within the oceanic crust. The widely varied geothermal and hydrogeological observations near site 504 are readily explained by a model which combines (1) basement relief, (2) irregular sediment drape, (3) largely conductive heat transfer through the sediments overlying the crust, and (4) thermal and geochemical homogenization of pore fluids at the sediment/basement interface, which results from (5) topographically induced, passive hydrothermal circulation with large aspect ratio, convection cells. This convection involves mainly the permeable, upper 200-300 m of crust; the deeper crust is not involved.« less

Interactions Between Ocean Circulation and Topography in Icy Worlds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goodman, J. C.

2018-05-01

To what extent does topography at the water-rock interface control the general circulation patterns of icy world oceans? And contrariwise, to what extent does liquid flow control the topography at the ice-water interface (or interfaces)?

Use of Ocean Remote Sensing Data to Enhance Predictions with a Coupled General Circulation Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rienecker, Michele M.

1999-01-01

Surface height, sea surface temperature and surface wind observations from satellites have given a detailed time sequence of the initiation and evolution of the 1997/98 El Nino. The data have beet complementary to the subsurface TAO moored data in their spatial resolution and extent. The impact of satellite observations on seasonal prediction in the tropical Pacific using a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model will be presented.

Near-inertial Wave Studies Using Historical Mooring Records and a High-Resolution General Circulation Model

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-09-30

Mooring Records and a High- Resolution General Circulation Model Harper Simmons School of Fisheries and Ocean Sciences 903 Koyukuk Drive Fairbanks AK...oceanographic community has been to develop a global internal wave prediction system analogous to those already in place for surface waves. Early steps have... Fisheries and Ocean Sciences,903 Koyukuk Drive,Fairbanks,AK,99775 8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION REPORT NUMBER 9. SPONSORING/MONITORING AGENCY NAME(S) AND

Simulations of Hurricane Katrina (2005) with the 0.125 degree finite-volume General Circulation Model on the NASA Columbia Supercomputer

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shen, B.-W.; Atlas, R.; Reale, O.; Lin, S.-J.; Chern, J.-D.; Chang, J.; Henze, C.

2006-01-01

Hurricane Katrina was the sixth most intense hurricane in the Atlantic. Katrina's forecast poses major challenges, the most important of which is its rapid intensification. Hurricane intensity forecast with General Circulation Models (GCMs) is difficult because of their coarse resolution. In this article, six 5-day simulations with the ultra-high resolution finite-volume GCM are conducted on the NASA Columbia supercomputer to show the effects of increased resolution on the intensity predictions of Katrina. It is found that the 0.125 degree runs give comparable tracks to the 0.25 degree, but provide better intensity forecasts, bringing the center pressure much closer to observations with differences of only plus or minus 12 hPa. In the runs initialized at 1200 UTC 25 AUG, the 0.125 degree simulates a more realistic intensification rate and better near-eye wind distributions. Moreover, the first global 0.125 degree simulation without convection parameterization (CP) produces even better intensity evolution and near-eye winds than the control run with CP.

A possible explanation for the divergent projection of ENSO amplitude change under global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Lin; Li, Tim; Yu, Yongqiang; Behera, Swadhin K.

2017-12-01

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the greatest climate variability on interannual time scale, yet what controls ENSO amplitude changes under global warming (GW) is uncertain. Here we show that the fundamental factor that controls the divergent projections of ENSO amplitude change within 20 coupled general circulation models that participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase-5 is the change of climatologic mean Pacific subtropical cell (STC), whose strength determines the meridional structure of ENSO perturbations and thus the anomalous thermocline response to the wind forcing. The change of the thermocline response is a key factor regulating the strength of Bjerknes thermocline and zonal advective feedbacks, which ultimately lead to the divergent changes in ENSO amplitude. Furthermore, by forcing an ocean general circulation mode with the change of zonal mean zonal wind stress estimated by a simple theoretical model, a weakening of the STC in future is obtained. Such a change implies that ENSO variability might strengthen under GW, which could have a profound socio-economic consequence.

The role of earth radiation budget studies in climate and general circulation research

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ramanathan, V.

1987-01-01

The use of earth radiation budget (ERB) data for climate and general circulation research is studied. ERB measurements obtained in the 1960's and 1970's have provided data on planetary brightness, planetary global energy balances, the greenhouse effect, solar insolation, meridional heat transport by oceans and atmospheres, regional forcing, climate feedback processes, and the computation of albedo values in low latitudes. The role of clouds in governing climate, in influencing the general circulation, and in determining the sensitivity of climate to external perturbations needs to be researched; a procedure for analyzing the ERB data, which will address these problems, is described. The approach involves estimating the clear-sky fluxes from the high spatial resolution scanner measurement and defining a cloud radiative forcing; the global average of the sum of the solar and long-wave cloud forcing yields the net radiative effect of clouds on the climate.

Intercomparison and interpretation of climate feedback processes in 19 atmospheric general circulation models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cess, R. D.; Potter, G. L.; Blanchet, J. P.; Boer, G. J.; Del Genio, A. D.

1990-01-01

The present study provides an intercomparison and interpretation of climate feedback processes in 19 atmospheric general circulation models. This intercomparison uses sea surface temperature change as a surrogate for climate change. The interpretation of cloud-climate interactions is given special attention. A roughly threefold variation in one measure of global climate sensitivity is found among the 19 models. The important conclusion is that most of this variation is attributable to differences in the models' depiction of cloud feedback, a result that emphasizes the need for improvements in the treatment of clouds in these models if they are ultimately to be used as reliable climate predictors. It is further emphazied that cloud feedback is the consequence of all interacting physical and dynamical processes in a general circulation model. The result of these processes is to produce changes in temperature, moisture distribution, and clouds which are integrated into the radiative response termed cloud feedback.

Scenarios of the spatiotemporal variability of precipitation for West Africa on the continental to local scale including ghg forcing and land use change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krüger, A.; Born, K.; Brücher, T.; Fink, A.; Ludwig, P.; Paeth, H.; Kerschgens, M.

2009-04-01

In the present study the influence of SST variability and land use change on the spatiotemporal rainfall variability in West Africa is investigated. The research is embedded in multidisciplinary Project IMPETUS (An integrated approach to the efficient management of scarce water resources in West Africa), which develops various decision support systems for local stakeholders to mitigate the impacts of the ongoing and projected climate change. There is increasing evidence that in some regions, particularly in the tropics, land use changes may play an equally or even more important role in future climate change compared with enhanced greenhouse conditions. Particularly, tropical Africa appears to be a paradigm for the prominent link between land surface conditions and changes in the hydrological cycle and energy budget. Recently, complex scenarios of future land cover changes are elaborated and combined with radiative forcing according to the IPCC scenarios A1B and B1. Based on these more realistic scenarios, ensemble simulations with the regional climate model REMO are carried out, nested in global ECHAM5 simulations between 1960 and 2050 (IMPETUS model chain). The results reveal some remarkable changes in near-surface climate. In a broad band between the Guinean coast and 15°N as well as in the Congo basin annual precipitation is decreasing by 100 to 500 mm until the middle of the 21st century. At the same time, near-surface temperature increases by 2 to 5 K. The warming rate is much more pronounced in tropical Africa than in northern Africa and southern Europe, where greenhouse-gas concentrations are equally rising, and basically reflects the pattern of enhanced land degradation. The large-scale monsoon circulation and the occurrence of extreme events are affected as well. Differences between the A1B and B1 ensembles are small. By means of the high resolution models of the IMPETUS model chain (LM and FOOT3DK) the effect of interactions between the Earth's surface and the atmosphere on fresh water availability is investigated on the local scale (the river catchment of the upper Ouémé in Benin). It is planned to use model rainfall simulations to construct a generator for future rainy seasons with a statistical-dynamical regionalisation approach for the regarded area. For this purposes simulations with the non-hydrostatic mesoscale meteorological model FOOT3DK are conducted. First, on basis of the 3-D modelling several sensitivity studies for a certain episode of 54 hours were executed, which hint at a substantial risk of precipitation decrease in case of unfavourable land surface change i.e. the reduction of vegetation cover and/or decreasing of initial soil moisture. In a further step accumulated precipitation for the rainy season 2002 for the HVO (Haute Vallée de l'Ouémé) was estimated with a satellite based approach for the detection of rainfall generating cloud systems (cf. Fink et al., 2006) in combination with episode simulations of FOOT3DK. The simulations with LM for 2002 are forced with analysis-data provided by the German Weather Service. The LM data serves as the input for FOOT3DK. The latter model is used for a double nesting procedure with horizontal resolutions of 9 km and 3 km. Land use is provided from other IMPETUS working groups and is mainly assessed on basis of Landsat and GLCC data. A comparison of observations and simulations leads to satisfactory results. Finally, the entire model chain (ECHAM5-REMO-LM-FOOT3DK) is used to calculate scenario simulations with respect to the regarded IPCC scenarios. Simulations with LM are undertaken for the year 2025. Again episodes of 54 to 72 hours are calculated with FOOT3DK and an IMPETUS generated projection for the land use of 2025 to overcome the limited calculating capacity. The forty chosen dry and wet episodes shall enable the estimation of future rainy seasons (rainy season generator) by assigning them to meteorological parameters derived from REMO output.

Parameterizing Gravity Waves and Understanding Their Impacts on Venus' Upper Atmosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brecht, A. S.; Bougher, S. W.; Yigit, Erdal

2018-01-01

The complexity of Venus’ upper atmospheric circulation is still being investigated. Simulations of Venus’ upper atmosphere largely depend on the utility of Rayleigh Friction (RF) as a driver and necessary process to reproduce observations (i.e. temperature, density, nightglow emission). Currently, there are additional observations which provide more constraints to help characterize the driver(s) of the circulation. This work will largely focus on the impact parameterized gravity waves have on Venus’ upper atmosphere circulation within a three dimensional hydrodynamic model (Venus Thermospheric General Circulation Model).

A two-tier atmospheric circulation classification scheme for the European-North Atlantic region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guentchev, Galina S.; Winkler, Julie A.

A two-tier classification of large-scale atmospheric circulation was developed for the European-North-Atlantic domain. The classification was constructed using a combination of principal components and k-means cluster analysis applied to reanalysis fields of mean sea-level pressure for 1951-2004. Separate classifications were developed for the winter, spring, summer, and fall seasons. For each season, the two classification tiers were identified independently, such that the definition of one tier does not depend on the other tier having already been defined. The first tier of the classification is comprised of supertype patterns. These broad-scale circulation classes are useful for generalized analyses such as investigations of the temporal trends in circulation frequency and persistence. The second, more detailed tier consists of circulation types and is useful for numerous applied research questions regarding the relationships between large-scale circulation and local and regional climate. Three to five supertypes and up to 19 circulation types were identified for each season. An intuitive nomenclature scheme based on the physical entities (i.e., anomaly centers) which dominate the specific patterns was used to label each of the supertypes and types. Two example applications illustrate the potential usefulness of a two-tier classification. In the first application, the temporal variability of the supertypes was evaluated. In general, the frequency and persistence of supertypes dominated by anticyclonic circulation increased during the study period, whereas the supertypes dominated by cyclonic features decreased in frequency and persistence. The usefulness of the derived circulation types was exemplified by an analysis of the circulation associated with heat waves and cold spells reported at several cities in Bulgaria. These extreme temperature events were found to occur with a small number of circulation types, a finding that can be helpful in understanding past variability and projecting future changes in the occurrence of extreme weather and climate events.

Evaluating the case for trivalent or quadrivalent influenza vaccines.

PubMed

Baxter, David

2016-10-02

Influenza viruses circulate widely throughout the world and it is estimated that they affect between 5 and 15% of the population annually. Since 1977, four viruses co-circulate - two A Viruses (H1N1 and H3N2) and two B viruses (B Yamagata and B Victoria). Type A viruses generally cause up to two thirds of annual infections, although single country studies have shown that B infections may be the predominant virus in the one year in four. Influenza vaccines have traditionally included the hamagglutinins and neuraminidases from the two circulating A viruses and either B Yamagata or B Victoria - however, selecting the B strain for inclusion in these trivalent vaccines has variable success. The alternative approach is to include both B strains in a quadrivalent vaccine. Immunological studies of such vaccines show non-inferiority with a trivalent vaccine comparator, and significant superiority to the additional B strain. Quadrivalent vaccines are more expensive than trivalent preparations but theoretical evidence would suggest they are likely to be more effective and therefore play a much greater role in national immunisation programmes in the future.

Climate Simulations based on a different-grid nested and coupled model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Dan; Ji, Jinjun; Li, Yinpeng

2002-05-01

An atmosphere-vegetation interaction model (A VIM) has been coupled with a nine-layer General Cir-culation Model (GCM) of Institute of Atmospheic Physics/State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (IAP/LASG), which is rhomboidally truncated at zonal wave number 15, to simulate global climatic mean states. A VIM is a model having inter-feedback between land surface processes and eco-physiological processes on land. As the first step to couple land with atmosphere completely, the physiological processes are fixed and only the physical part (generally named the SVAT (soil-vegetation-atmosphere-transfer scheme) model) of AVIM is nested into IAP/LASG L9R15 GCM. The ocean part of GCM is prescribed and its monthly sea surface temperature (SST) is the climatic mean value. With respect to the low resolution of GCM, i.e., each grid cell having lon-gitude 7.5° and latitude 4.5°, the vegetation is given a high resolution of 1.5° by 1.5° to nest and couple the fine grid cells of land with the coarse grid cells of atmosphere. The coupling model has been integrated for 15 years and its last ten-year mean of outputs was chosen for analysis. Compared with observed data and NCEP reanalysis, the coupled model simulates the main characteris-tics of global atmospheric circulation and the fields of temperature and moisture. In particular, the simu-lated precipitation and surface air temperature have sound results. The work creates a solid base on coupling climate models with the biosphere.

An Oceanic General Circulation Model (OGCM) investigation of the Red Sea circulation: 2. Three-dimensional circulation in the Red Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sofianos, Sarantis S.; Johns, William E.

2003-03-01

The three-dimensional circulation of the Red Sea is studied using a set of Miami Isopycnic Coordinate Ocean Model (MICOM) simulations. The model performance is tested against the few available observations in the basin and shows generally good agreement with the main observed features of the circulation. The main findings of this analysis include an intensification of the along-axis flow toward the coasts, with a transition from western intensified boundary flow in the south to eastern intensified flow in the north, and a series of strong seasonal or permanent eddy-like features. Model experiments conducted with different forcing fields (wind-stress forcing only, surface buoyancy forcing only, or both forcings combined) showed that the circulation produced by the buoyancy forcing is stronger overall and dominates the wind-driven part of the circulation. The main circulation pattern is related to the seasonal buoyancy flux (mostly due to the evaporation), which causes the density to increase northward in the basin and produces a northward surface pressure gradient associated with the downward sloping of the sea surface. The response of the eastern boundary to the associated mean cross-basin geostrophic current depends on the stratification and β-effect. In the northern part of the basin this results in an eastward intensification of the northward surface flow associated with the presence of Kelvin waves while in the south the traditional westward intensification due to Rossby waves takes place. The most prominent gyre circulation pattern occurs in the north where a permanent cyclonic gyre is present that is involved in the formation of Red Sea Outflow Water (RSOW). Beneath the surface boundary currents are similarly intensified southward undercurrents that carry the RSOW to the sill to flow out of the basin into the Indian Ocean.

Climate Change Scenarios in the Yucatan Peninsula to the year 2020

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Orellana, R.; Espadas, C.; Conde, C.; Gay, C.

2010-03-01

A topic that has not been sufficiently analyzed is that the global warming is already affecting, and that it will have worst consequences in those regions with transitional climates, which have more sensibility to changes. This is the case of the Yucatan Peninsula which is semi-arid in their northern portion, and toward the south is subhumid, with a tendency to be more rainy toward the south. To have an estimation of what could happen in the future, the Intergovernmental Panel of Climatic Change (IPCC) has promoted the use of General Circulation Models (GCM), as well as the construction of possible emission scenarios that integrate different global and regional socioeconomic and demographic conditions, which project then a possible increase of emissions of greenhouse gases. These conditions are recognized as the decisive forces that will determine the variations of temperature and of precipitation. These projections are useful for the analysis of climatic change, and in particular for the assessments of the possible impacts and of the initiatives of adaptation and of mitigation that should be implemented in every country or region. In Mexico, most of those evaluations of climate change have been carried out generally at country level. For that reason, it is necessary to direct the research at regional level. In this work, we evaluated the potential climatic changes on the Yucatan Peninsula, considering the different changes of temperature and precipitation as a consequence for different emission scenarios and for the horizon 2020. To project the environmental responses of the region, we used as a base scenario the available temperature and precipitation information of the period 1961-1990, registered in 85 meteorological stations of the peninsula. With these data, we generated climate change scenarios using the outputs of four General Circulation Models: HADLEY, ECHAM, GFDL and CGCM, and the emission scenarios A1FI, A2, B1 and B2. The outputs of these models were introduced in a Geographical Information System (GIS), represented cartographically and were corroborated geostatistically. The results are shown through a collection of maps that constitutes the possible changes of the different elements of the climate under ten possible climate change scenarios. One main result that we obtained was that for the horizon 2020, there is great uncertainty on the temperature increments and on the changes of the projected precipitation amounts. Even with that uncertainty, extreme climatic scenarios were obtained. For example, the scenario generated with the Hadley model, and with the emission scenario A1FI, projects that the distribution of climates will radically change in the peninsula. The region with climates BSo w, which is the driest of the semi-arid climates, will extend from Sisal to the east of Río Lagartos, in the area of San Felipe. Also, this scenario projects that the Awo w" warm climate, will be distributed in the occidental middle portion of the peninsula, from Mocochá and Mérida in the north, and to the boarder zone of Campeche and Guatemala, in the south. The Ax’(wo) w" climate will be present in a very extended area, from the east of the state of Yucatán, until the east of Campeche and the west of Quintana Roo. The cartographic representation of the ten possible scenarios will allow us to contrast the possible climate change scenarios, and could support the localization of the most vulnerable areas, and to determine also what kind of adaptation and mitigation measures should start to be established i for regions and sectors that are very relevant in the peninsula, such as rainfed agriculture, apiculture (beekeeping), achiote production, and eco-tourism, for example.

The Role of Eddies in the General Ocean Circulation: Proceedings of ’Aha Huliko’a Hawaiian Winter Workshop Held at Manoa on January 5-7, 1983

DTIC Science & Technology

1983-01-01

January 5-7, 1983. (SOI iE): Hnai1 Int of Gtnphyqirdt Honohlul. To ORDER THE COMPLETE COMPILATION REPORT USE AD-A137 212 THE COMPONENT PART IS PROVIDED...Holland, 1979). Outside of the region of the wavemaker the vorticity-mixingtheory leads us to expect a down-gradient (southward) component of v’ q...calling them "mesoscale" begins to be marginal. The climatological T4 5 0 field used above is based on cubic spline fits to averages over 2’ (latitude) by

Regional climates in the GISS general circulation model: Surface air temperature

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hewitson, Bruce

1994-01-01

One of the more viable research techniques into global climate change for the purpose of understanding the consequent environmental impacts is based on the use of general circulation models (GCMs). However, GCMs are currently unable to reliably predict the regional climate change resulting from global warming, and it is at the regional scale that predictions are required for understanding human and environmental responses. Regional climates in the extratropics are in large part governed by the synoptic-scale circulation and the feasibility of using this interscale relationship is explored to provide a way of moving to grid cell and sub-grid cell scales in the model. The relationships between the daily circulation systems and surface air temperature for points across the continental United States are first developed in a quantitative form using a multivariate index based on principal components analysis (PCA) of the surface circulation. These relationships are then validated by predicting daily temperature using observed circulation and comparing the predicted values with the observed temperatures. The relationships predict surface temperature accurately over the major portion of the country in winter, and for half the country in summer. These relationships are then applied to the surface synoptic circulation of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) GCM control run, and a set of surface grid cell temperatures are generated. These temperatures, based on the larger-scale validated circulation, may now be used with greater confidence at the regional scale. The generated temperatures are compared to those of the model and show that the model has regional errors of up to 10 C in individual grid cells.

Cloud Feedback in Atmospheric General Circulation Models: An Update

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cess, R. D.; Zhang, M. H.; Ingram, W. J.; Potter, G. L.; Alekseev, V.; Barker, H. W.; Cohen-Solal, E.; Colman, R. A.; Dazlich, D. A.; DelGenio, A. D.;

Adaptation of a general circulation model to ocean dynamics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Turner, R. E.; Rees, T. H.; Woodbury, G. E.

1976-01-01

A primitive-variable general circulation model of the ocean was formulated in which fast external gravity waves are suppressed with rigid-lid surface constraint pressires which also provide a means for simulating the effects of large-scale free-surface topography. The surface pressure method is simpler to apply than the conventional stream function models, and the resulting model can be applied to both global ocean and limited region situations. Strengths and weaknesses of the model are also presented.

Derivation of revised formulae for eddy viscous forces used in the ocean general circulation model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chou, Ru Ling

1988-01-01

Presented is a re-derivation of the eddy viscous dissipation tensor commonly used in present oceanographic general circulation models. When isotropy is imposed, the currently-used form of the tensor fails to return to the laplacian operator. In this paper, the source of this error is identified in a consistent derivation of the tensor in both rectangular and earth spherical coordinates, and the correct form of the eddy viscous tensor is presented.

Impact of lakes and wetlands on present and future boreal climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Poutou, E.; Krinner, G.; Genthon, C.

2002-12-01

Impact of lakes and wetlands on present and future boreal climate The role of lakes and wetlands in present-day high latitude climate is quantified using a general circulation model of the atmosphere. The atmospheric model includes a lake module which is presented and validated. Seasonal and spatial wetland distribution is calculated as a function of the hydrological budget of the wetlands themselves and of continental soil whose runoff feeds them. Wetland extent is simulated and discussed both in simulations forced by observed climate and in general circulation model simulations. In off-line simulations, forced by ECMWF reanalyses, the lake model simulates correctly observed lake ice durations, while the wetland extent is somewhat underestimated in the boreal regions. Coupled to the general circulation model, the lake model yields satisfying ice durations, although the climate model biases have impacts on the modeled lake ice conditions. Boreal wetland extents are overestimated in the general circulation model as simulated precipitation is too high. The impact of inundated surfaces on the simulated climate is strongest in summer when these surfaces are ice-free. Wetlands seem to play a more important role than lakes in cooling the boreal regions in summer and in humidifying the atmosphere. The role of lakes and wetlands in future climate change is evaluated by analyzing simulations of present and future climate with and without prescribed inland water bodies.

Impact of moisture variations on the circulation of the south-west monsoon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kishtawal, C. M.; Pal, P. K.; Narayanan, M. S.; Manna, S. K.; Sharma, O. P.; Agarwal, Sangeeta; Upadhyaya, H. C.

1993-12-01

The impact of moisture anomalies on the circulation of the south-west Indian monsoon has been studied with a general circulation model. Newtonian relaxation is adopted to subject the model atmosphere under sustained moisture anomalies. The impact of negative anomalies of moisture was seen as a divergent circulation anomaly, while the positive anomaly was a stronger convergent anomaly. Although the humidity fields display a resilient behaviour, and relax back to normal patterns 1-2 days after the forcing terms in humidity are withdrawn, the circulation anomalies created by the moisture variation keeps growing. A feedback between positive moisture anomalies and low level convergence exists, which is terminated in the absence of external forcings.

Development of the GEOS-5 Atmospheric General Circulation Model: Evolution from MERRA to MERRA2.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Molod, Andrea; Takacs, Lawrence; Suarez, Max; Bacmeister, Julio

2014-01-01

The Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications-2 (MERRA2) version of the GEOS-5 (Goddard Earth Observing System Model - 5) Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) is currently in use in the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) at a wide range of resolutions for a variety of applications. Details of the changes in parameterizations subsequent to the version in the original MERRA reanalysis are presented here. Results of a series of atmosphere-only sensitivity studies are shown to demonstrate changes in simulated climate associated with specific changes in physical parameterizations, and the impact of the newly implemented resolution-aware behavior on simulations at different resolutions is demonstrated. The GEOS-5 AGCM presented here is the model used as part of the GMAO's MERRA2 reanalysis, the global mesoscale "nature run", the real-time numerical weather prediction system, and for atmosphere-only, coupled ocean-atmosphere and coupled atmosphere-chemistry simulations. The seasonal mean climate of the MERRA2 version of the GEOS-5 AGCM represents a substantial improvement over the simulated climate of the MERRA version at all resolutions and for all applications. Fundamental improvements in simulated climate are associated with the increased re-evaporation of frozen precipitation and cloud condensate, resulting in a wetter atmosphere. Improvements in simulated climate are also shown to be attributable to changes in the background gravity wave drag, and to upgrades in the relationship between the ocean surface stress and the ocean roughness. The series of "resolution aware" parameters related to the moist physics were shown to result in improvements at higher resolutions, and result in AGCM simulations that exhibit seamless behavior across different resolutions and applications.

IGF2R Genetic Variants, Circulating IGF2 Concentrations and Colon Cancer Risk in African Americans and Whites

PubMed Central

Hoyo, Cathrine; Murphy, Susan K.; Schildkraut, Joellen M.; Vidal, Adriana C.; Skaar, David; Millikan, Robert C.; Galanko, Joseph; Sandler, Robert S.; Jirtle, Randy; Keku, Temitope

2012-01-01

The Mannose 6 Phosphate/Insulin-like Growth Factor Receptor-2 (IGF2R) encodes a type-1 membrane protein that modulates availability of the potent mitogen, IGF2. We evaluated the associations between IGF2R non-synonymous genetic variants (c.5002G>A, Gly1619Arg(rs629849), and c.901C>G, Leu252Val(rs8191754)), circulating IGF2 levels, and colon cancer (CC) risk among African American and White participants enrolled in the North Carolina Colon Cancer Study (NCCCS). Generalized linear models were used to compare circulating levels of IGF2 among 298 African American and 518 White controls. Logistic regression models were used to estimate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the association of IGF2R genetic variants and CC risk. Women homozygous for the IGF2R c.5002 G>A allele, had higher mean levels of circulating IGF2, 828 (SD=321) ng/ml compared to non-carriers, 595 (SD=217) ng/ml (p-value=0.01). This pattern was not apparent in individuals homozygous for the IGF2R c.901 C>G variant. Whites homozygous for the IGF2R c.901 C>G variant trended towards a higher risk of CC, OR=2.2 [95% CI(0.9–5.4)], whereas carrying the IGF2R c.5002 G>A variant was not associated with CC risk. Our findings support the hypothesis that being homozygous for the IGF2R c.5002 G>A modulates IGF2 circulating levels in a sex-specific manner, and while carrying the IGF2R c.901 C>G may increase cancer risk, the mechanism may not involve modulation of circulating IGF2. PMID:22377707

IGF2R genetic variants, circulating IGF2 concentrations and colon cancer risk in African Americans and Whites.

PubMed

Hoyo, Cathrine; Murphy, Susan K; Schildkraut, Joellen M; Vidal, Adriana C; Skaar, David; Millikan, Robert C; Galanko, Joseph; Sandler, Robert S; Jirtle, Randy; Keku, Temitope

2012-01-01

The Mannose 6 Phosphate/Insulin-like Growth Factor Receptor-2 (IGF2R) encodes a type-1 membrane protein that modulates availability of the potent mitogen, IGF2. We evaluated the associations between IGF2R non-synonymous genetic variants (c.5002G>A, Gly1619Arg(rs629849), and c.901C>G, Leu252Val(rs8191754)), circulating IGF2 levels, and colon cancer (CC) risk among African American and White participants enrolled in the North Carolina Colon Cancer Study (NCCCS). Generalized linear models were used to compare circulating levels of IGF2 among 298 African American and 518 White controls. Logistic regression models were used to estimate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the association of IGF2R genetic variants and CC risk. Women homozygous for the IGF2R c.5002 G>A allele, had higher mean levels of circulating IGF2, 828 (SD=321) ng/ml compared to non-carriers, 595 (SD=217) ng/ml (p-value=0.01). This pattern was not apparent in individuals homozygous for the IGF2R c.901 C>G variant. Whites homozygous for the IGF2R c.901 C>G variant trended towards a higher risk of CC, OR=2.2 [95% CI(0.9-5.4)], whereas carrying the IGF2R c.5002 G>A variant was not associated with CC risk. Our findings support the hypothesis that being homozygous for the IGF2R c.5002 G>A modulates IGF2 circulating levels in a sex-specific manner, and while carrying the IGF2R c.901 C>G may increase cancer risk, the mechanism may not involve modulation of circulating IGF2.

Circulating angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 activity in patients with chronic kidney disease without previous history of cardiovascular disease.

PubMed

Anguiano, Lidia; Riera, Marta; Pascual, Julio; Valdivielso, José Manuel; Barrios, Clara; Betriu, Angels; Mojal, Sergi; Fernández, Elvira; Soler, María José

2015-07-01

Patients with cardiovascular (CV) disease have an increased circulating angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) activity, but there is little information about changes in ACE2 in chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients without history of CV disease. We examined circulating ACE2 activity in CKD patients at stages 3-5 (CKD3-5) and in dialysis (CKD5D) without any history of CV disease. Circulating ACE2 activity was measured in human ethylenediamine-tetraacetic acid (EDTA)-plasma samples from the NEFRONA study (n = 2572): control group (CONT) (n = 568), CKD3-5 (n = 1458) and CKD5D (n = 546). Different clinical and analytical variables such as gender; age; history of diabetes mellitus (DM), dyslipidemia and hypertension; glycaemic, renal, lipid and anaemia profiles; vitamin D analogues treatment and antihypertensive treatments (angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor and angiotensin receptor blockade) were analysed. Circulating ACE2 and ACE activities were measured using modified fluorimetric assay for EDTA-plasma samples, where zinc chloride was added to recover enzymatic activity. In CKD3-5 and CKD5D, significant decrease in circulating ACE2 activity was observed when compared with CONT, but no differences were found between CKD3-5 and CKD5 when performing paired case-control studies. By multivariate linear regression analysis, male gender and advanced age were identified as independent predictors of ACE2 activity in all groups. Diabetes was identified as independent predictor of ACE2 activity in CKD3-5. Significant increase in the activity of circulating ACE was found in CKD3-5 and CKD5D when compared with CONT and in CKD5D when compared with CKD3-5. By multiple regression analysis, female gender and younger age were identified as independent predictors of ACE activity in CONT and CKD3-5. Diabetes was also identified as an independent predictor of ACE activity in CKD3-5 patients. Circulating ACE2 and ACE activities can be measured in human EDTA-plasma samples with zinc added to recover enzymatic activity. In a CKD population without previous history of CV disease, ACE2 activity from human EDTA-plasma samples directly correlated with the classical CV risk factors namely older age, diabetes and male gender. Our data suggest that circulating ACE2 is altered in CKD patients at risk for CV event. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of ERA-EDTA. All rights reserved.

Future Changes in Autumn Flood Type and Frequency in Pacific Northwest North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Menounos, B.; Cannon, A. J.; Radic, V.; Moore, R. D.; Dery, S. J.; Jackson, P. L.; Anslow, F. S.

2013-12-01

During the 20th and early 21st century, autumn storms in the Pacific Northwest of North America - PNWNA (coastal British Columbia and Washington) caused widespread flooding and landslides. Understanding how these intense storms are likely to change in the future is important given their potential to harm people and cause widespread damage, but assessing these changes using climate models is difficult. Parameterization of precipitation in general circulation and regional climate models (GCM, RCM) is prone to error, especially in the mountainous terrain of the PNWNA. High computational demands of RCMs also limits their use in assessing changes in flood type and frequency for a suite of GCM and emission scenarios. We instead focus our efforts on understanding atmospheric circulation patterns responsible for historical autumn flooding (15 August - 31 December) and examine how these synoptic conditions are likely to change under future emission scenarios. Our analysis includes identification of extreme events (runoff and precipitation) in streamflow and precipitation records from coastal Washington and British Columbia for the period 1948-2010. Our methods to link the instrumental record of extreme autumn events to atmospheric conditions (500 and 850 hPa geopotential height and integrated vapor transport obtained from NCEP and CFSR reanalysis) include: (1) compositing of streamflow and precipitation events (environment-to-circulation); (2) self organizing map synoptic classification (circulation-to-environment); and (3) regression tree synoptic classification (hybrid of environment-to-circulation and circulation-to-environment). We then evaluate changes in flood-generating synoptic types in the CMIP5 ensemble over the period 2010-2100. Our analysis indicates that, as expected, most floods are associated with atmospheric river events that are commonly associated with upper level, quasi stationary low- and high-pressure systems respectively located in the Gulf of Alaska and east of the PNWNA. Based on our initial analysis of the CMIP5 data, we note an increase in autumn flood-producing synoptic weather types for the PNWNA. We discuss the implications of increased autumn flooding to communities and infrastructure.

Modeling the water isotopes in Greenland precipitation 1959-2001 with the meso-scale model REMO-iso

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sjolte, J.; Hoffmann, G.; Johnsen, S. J.; Vinther, B. M.; Masson-Delmotte, V.; Sturm, C.

2011-09-01

Ice core studies have proved the δ18O in Greenland precipitation to be correlated to the phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). This subject has also been investigated in modeling studies. However, these studies have either had severe biases in the δ18O levels, or have not been designed to be compared directly with observations. In this study we nudge a meso-scale climate model fitted with stable water isotope diagnostics (REMO-iso) to follow the actual weather patterns for the period 1959-2001. We evaluate this simulation using meteorological observations from stations along the Greenland coast, and δ18O from several Greenland ice core stacks and Global Network In Precipitation (GNIP) data from Greenland, Iceland and Svalbard. The REMO-iso output explains up to 40% of the interannual δ18O variability observed in ice cores, which is comparable to the model performance for precipitation. In terms of reproducing the observed variability the global model, ECHAM4-iso performs on the same level as REMO-iso. However, REMO-iso has smaller biases in δ18O and improved representation of the observed spatial δ18O-temperature slope compared to ECHAM4-iso. Analysis of the main modes of winter variability of δ18O shows a coherent signal in Central and Western Greenland similar to results from ice cores. The NAO explains 20% of the leading δ18O pattern. Based on the model output we suggest that methods to reconstruct the NAO from Greenland ice cores employ both δ18O and accumulation records.

Cirrus clouds as seen by the CALIPSO satellite and ECHAM-HAM global climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gasparini, Blaz; Meyer, Angela; Neubauer, David; Münch, Steffen; Lohmann, Ulrike

2017-04-01

Ice clouds impact the planetary energy balance and upper tropospheric water vapour transport and are therefore relevant for climate. In this study ice clouds at temperatures below -40°C simulated by the ECHAM-HAM global climate model are compared to CALIPSO/CALIOP satellite data. The model reproduces well the mean occurrence of ice clouds, while the ice water path, ice crystal radius, cloud optical depth and extinction are overestimated in terms of annual means and temperature dependent frequency histograms. Two distinct types of cirrus clouds are found: in-situ formed cirrus dominating at temperatures below -60°C and liquid-origin cirrus, dominating at temperatures warmer than -55°C. The latter form in anvils of deep convective clouds or by glaciation of mixed-phase clouds. They are associated with ice water contents of up to 0.1 g m-3 and extinctions of up to 0.1 km-1, while the in-situ formed cirrus are optically thinner and contain at least an order of magnitude less ice. The ice cloud properties do not differ significantly between the southern and the northern hemisphere. In-situ formed ice clouds are further divided into homogeneously and heterogeneously nucleated ones. The simulated liquid-origin ice crystals mainly form in convective outflow in large number concentrations, similar to in-situ homogeneously nucleated ice crystals. On the contrary, heterogeneously nucleated ice crystals are associated with smaller number concentrations. However, ice crystal aggregation and depositional growth smooth the differences between several formation mechanisms making the attribution to a specific ice nucleation mechanism challenging.

10Be in late deglacial climate simulated by ECHAM5-HAM - Part 2: Isolating the solar signal from 10Be deposition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heikkilä, U.; Shi, X.; Phipps, S. J.; Smith, A. M.

2014-04-01

This study investigates the effect of deglacial climate on the deposition of the solar proxy 10Be globally, and at two specific locations, the GRIP site at Summit, Central Greenland, and the Law Dome site in coastal Antarctica. The deglacial climate is represented by three 30 year time slice simulations of 10 000 BP (years before present = 1950 CE), 11 000 and 12 000 BP, compared with a preindustrial control simulation. The model used is the ECHAM5-HAM atmospheric aerosol-climate model, driven with sea-surface temperatures and sea ice cover simulated using the CSIRO Mk3L coupled climate system model. The focus is on isolating the 10Be production signal, driven by solar variability, from the weather- or climate-driven noise in the 10Be deposition flux during different stages of climate. The production signal varies at lower frequencies, dominated by the 11 year solar cycle within the 30 year timescale of these experiments. The climatic noise is of higher frequencies than 11 years during the 30 year period studied. We first apply empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis to global 10Be deposition on the annual scale and find that the first principal component, consisting of the spatial pattern of mean 10Be deposition and the temporally varying solar signal, explains 64% of the variability. The following principal components are closely related to those of precipitation. Then, we apply ensemble empirical decomposition (EEMD) analysis to the time series of 10Be deposition at GRIP and at Law Dome, which is an effective method for adaptively decomposing the time series into different frequency components. The low-frequency components and the long-term trend represent production and have reduced noise compared to the entire frequency spectrum of the deposition. The high-frequency components represent climate-driven noise related to the seasonal cycle of e.g. precipitation and are closely connected to high frequencies of precipitation. These results firstly show that the 10Be atmospheric production signal is preserved in the deposition flux to surface even during climates very different from today's both in global data and at two specific locations. Secondly, noise can be effectively reduced from 10Be deposition data by simply applying the EOF analysis in the case of a reasonably large number of available data sets, or by decomposing the individual data sets to filter out high-frequency fluctuations.

Enhanced risk profiling of implanted defibrillator shocks with circulating SCN5A mRNA splicing variants: a pilot trial

PubMed Central

Gao, Ge; Brahmanandam, Vikram; Raicu, Mihai; Gu, Lianzhi; Zhou, Li; Kasturirangan, Srinivasan; Shah, Anish; Negi, Smita I.; Wood, Melissa R.; Desai, Ankit A.; Tatooles, Antone; Schwartz, Alan; Dudley, Samuel C.

2014-01-01

Objectives The aim of this study was to determine the association of SCN5A cardiac sodium (Na+) channel mRNA splice variants in white blood cells (WBCs) with risk of arrhythmias in heart failure (HF). Background HF is associated with upregulation of two cardiac SCN5A mRNA splice variants. that encode prematurely truncated, nonfunctional Na+ channels. Since circulating WBCs demonstrate similar SCN5A splicing patterns, we hypothesized that these WBC-derived splice variants might further stratify HF patients at risk for arrhythmias. Methods Simultaneously obtained myocardial core samples and WBCs were compared for SCN5A variants C (VC) and D (VD). Circulating variant levels were compared between HF patients divided into three groups: HF without an implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD), HF with an ICD without appropriate intervention, and HF with an ICD with appropriate intervention. Results Myocardial tissue-derived SCN5A variant expression levels strongly correlated with circulating WBC samples for both VC and VD variants (r = 0.78 and 0.75, respectively). After controlling for covariates, HF patients who had received an appropriate ICD intervention had higher expression levels of both WBC-derived SCN5A variants compared to HF patients with ICDs who had not (OR= 3.25 (95% CI 1.64–6.45; p=0.001)). Receiver operating characteristics analysis revealed that circulating SCN5A variants levels were highly associated with the risk for appropriate ICD intervention (area under the curve ≥ 0.97). Conclusions Circulating expression levels of SCN5A variants were strongly associated with myocardial tissue levels. Furthermore, circulating variant levels were correlative with arrhythmic risk as measured by ICD events in a HF population within one year. PMID:24703920

A more accurate scheme for calculating Earth's skin temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsuang, Ben-Jei; Tu, Chia-Ying; Tsai, Jeng-Lin; Dracup, John A.; Arpe, Klaus; Meyers, Tilden

2009-02-01

The theoretical framework of the vertical discretization of a ground column for calculating Earth’s skin temperature is presented. The suggested discretization is derived from the evenly heat-content discretization with the optimal effective thickness for layer-temperature simulation. For the same level number, the suggested discretization is more accurate in skin temperature as well as surface ground heat flux simulations than those used in some state-of-the-art models. A proposed scheme (“op(3,2,0)”) can reduce the normalized root-mean-square error (or RMSE/STD ratio) of the calculated surface ground heat flux of a cropland site significantly to 2% (or 0.9 W m-2), from 11% (or 5 W m-2) by a 5-layer scheme used in ECMWF, from 19% (or 8 W m-2) by a 5-layer scheme used in ECHAM, and from 74% (or 32 W m-2) by a single-layer scheme used in the UCLA GCM. Better accuracy can be achieved by including more layers to the vertical discretization. Similar improvements are expected for other locations with different land types since the numerical error is inherited into the models for all the land types. The proposed scheme can be easily implemented into state-of-the-art climate models for the temperature simulation of snow, ice and soil.

Tropical Cyclone Footprint in the Ocean Mixed Layer Observed by Argo in the Northwest Pacific

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-10-25

668. Hu, A., and G. A. Meehl (2009), Effect of the Atlantic hurricanes on the oceanic meridional overturning circulation and heat transport, Geo...atmospheric circulation [Hart et al., 2007]. Several studies, based on observations and modeling, suggest that TC-induced energy input and mixing may play...an important role in climate variability through regulating the oceanic general circulation and its variability [e.g., Emanuel, 2001; Sriver and Huber

Effects of Small-Scale Bathymetric Roughness on the Global Internal Wave Field

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-09-30

Navy. Much of the interest stems from the suggestion by Munk and Wunsch (1998) that the strength of the meridional overturning circulation is controlled... meridional overturning circulation . Journal of Physical Oceanography 32, 3578-3595. St. Laurent, L.C., 1999. Diapycnal advection by double diffusion...waves generated by flows over the rough seafloor. On the time scales of internal waves, mesoscale eddies and the general circulation can be regarded as

From nuclear power to coal power: Aerosol-induced health and radiative effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mielonen, Tero; Laakso, Anton; Karhunen, Anni; Kokkola, Harri; Partanen, Antti-Ilari; Korhonen, Hannele; Romakkaniemi, Sami; Lehtinen, Kari E. J.

2015-12-01

We have investigated what would be the climate and PM-induced air quality consequences if all nuclear reactors worldwide were closed down and replaced by coal combustion. In a way, this presents a "worst-case scenario" since less polluting energy sources are available. We studied simultaneously the radiative and health effects of coal power emissions using a global 3-D aerosol-climate model (ECHAM-HAMMOZ). This approach allowed us to estimate the effects of a major global energy production change from low carbon source to a high carbon one using detailed spatially resolved population density information. We included the radiative effects of both CO2 and PM2.5 but limited the study of health effects to PM2.5 only. Our results show that the replacement of nuclear power with coal power would have globally caused an average of 150,000 premature deaths per year during the period 2005-2009 with two thirds of them in Europe. For 37 years the aerosol emissions from the additional coal power plants would cool the climate but after that the accumulating CO2 emissions would accelerate the warming of the climate.

Comparison of aerosol optical properties above clouds between POLDER and AeroCom models over the South East Atlantic Ocean during the fire season

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peers, F.; Bellouin, N.; Waquet, F.; Ducos, F.; Goloub, P.; Mollard, J.; Myhre, G.; Skeie, R. B.; Takemura, T.; Tanré, D.; Thieuleux, F.; Zhang, K.

2016-04-01

Aerosol properties above clouds have been retrieved over the South East Atlantic Ocean during the fire season 2006 using satellite observations from POLDER (Polarization and Directionality of Earth Reflectances). From June to October, POLDER has observed a mean Above-Cloud Aerosol Optical Thickness (ACAOT) of 0.28 and a mean Above-Clouds Single Scattering Albedo (ACSSA) of 0.87 at 550 nm. These results have been used to evaluate the simulation of aerosols above clouds in five Aerosol Comparisons between Observations and Models (Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GOCART), Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model 3 (HadGEM3), European Centre Hamburg Model 5-Hamburg Aerosol Module 2 (ECHAM5-HAM2), Oslo-Chemical Transport Model 2 (OsloCTM2), and Spectral Radiation-Transport Model for Aerosol Species (SPRINTARS)). Most models do not reproduce the observed large aerosol load episodes. The comparison highlights the importance of the injection height and the vertical transport parameterizations to simulate the large ACAOT observed by POLDER. Furthermore, POLDER ACSSA is best reproduced by models with a high imaginary part of black carbon refractive index, in accordance with recent recommendations.

Impact of Radiatively Interactive Dust Aerosols in the NASA GEOS-5 Climate Model: Sensitivity to Dust Particle Shape and Refractive Index

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Colarco, Peter R.; Nowottnick, Edward Paul; Randles, Cynthia A.; Yi, Bingqi; Yang, Ping; Kim, Kyu-Myong; Smith, Jamison A.; Bardeen, Charles D.

2013-01-01

We investigate the radiative effects of dust aerosols in the NASA GEOS-5 atmospheric general circulation model. GEOS-5 is improved with the inclusion of a sectional aerosol and cloud microphysics module, the Community Aerosol and Radiation Model for Atmospheres (CARMA). Into CARMA we introduce treatment of the dust and sea salt aerosol lifecycle, including sources, transport evolution, and sinks. The aerosols are radiatively coupled to GEOS-5, and we perform a series of multi-decade AMIP-style simulations in which dust optical properties (spectral refractive index and particle shape distribution) are varied. Optical properties assuming spherical dust particles are from Mie theory, while those for non-spherical shape distributions are drawn from a recently available database for tri-axial ellipsoids. The climatologies of the various simulations generally compare well to data from the MODIS, MISR, and CALIOP space-based sensors, the ground-based AERONET, and surface measurements of dust deposition and concentration. Focusing on the summertime Saharan dust cycle we show significant variability in our simulations resulting from different choices of dust optical properties. Atmospheric heating due to dust enhances surface winds over important Saharan dust sources, and we find a positive feedback where increased dust absorption leads to increased dust emissions. We further find that increased dust absorption leads to a strengthening of the summertime Hadley cell circulation, increasing dust lofting to higher altitudes and strengthening the African Easterly Jet. This leads to a longer atmospheric residence time, higher altitude, and generally more northward transport of dust in simulations with the most absorbing dust optical properties. We find that particle shape, although important for radiance simulations, is a minor effect compared to choices of refractive index, although total atmospheric forcing is enhanced by greater than 10 percent for simulations incorporating a spheroidal shape distribution versus ellipsoidal or spherical shapes.

Impact of seasonal synoptic weather types on local PM10 concentrations in Bavaria/Germany: recent conditions and future projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weitnauer, Claudia; Beck, Christoph; Jacobeit, Jucundus

2015-04-01

It is a matter of common knowledge that local concentrations of PM10 (fine particles in the air with a medium diameter less than 10 μm) vary with the seasons in Europe. These concentrations are influenced on the one hand by the amount of natural and anthropogenic emissions and on the other hand by large-scale and local meteorological conditions. In Bavaria (part of southern Germany) as the target region of the present study, the PM10 concentrations are particularly high in winter time. One reason for this are increased particle emissions due to domestic heating and traffic load in December, January and February. As several studies in other European regions indicated, a distinct effect of the large-scale synoptic weather situation in winter on local PM10 concentrations should be considered as another reason. The main task of this study is to use seasonal synoptic weather types, which are optimized with respect to daily mean PM10 data at 16 Bavarian cities, and therefore are classified by using daily gridded NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data (2.5° x 2.5° horizontal resolution) for the recent period 1980 - 2011 over a Central European spatial domain, to describe the impact of the large-scale meteorological conditions on the local particle concentrations. The weather types are related to monthly PM10 indices by using different transfer techniques like direct synoptic downscaling, multiple regression and generalized linear models as well as random forests. The PM10 indices are determined by averaging daily to monthly data (PMmean) or by counting the daily exceedances of a particular threshold (> 50 μg/m3, PMe50). The generated transfer models are evaluated in calibration and validation periods using several forecast skills, for example the mean squared skill score (MSSS) or the Heidke Skill Score (HSS). The sufficiently performing models are then applied to weather types derived from future climate change scenarios of the global climate model ECHAM 6 for the IPCC scenarios RCP 4.5 and 8.5 in order to estimate future climate-change induced modifications of local PM10 concentrations in Bavaria.

On the Cause of Eastern Equatorial Pacific Ocean T-S Variations Associated with El Nino

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wang, Ou; Fukumori, Ichiro; Lee, Tong; Cheng, Benny

2004-01-01

The nature of observed variations in temperature-salinity (T-S) relationship between El Nino and non-El Nino years in the pycnocline of the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean (NINO3 region, 5(deg)S-5(deg)N, 150(deg)W-90(deg)W) is investigated using an ocean general circulation model. The origin of the subject water mass is identified using the adjoint of a simulated passive tracer. The higher salinity during El Nino is attributed to larger convergence of saltier water from the Southern Hemisphere and smaller convergence of fresher water from the Northern Hemisphere.

Oceanographic Data Report for South West Pacific Cruises in the SEAMAP Series. Part 2. Winter Survey Data 1985 to 1987

DTIC Science & Technology

1990-06-01

for 1000 m . (+ are Nansen stations;. are VCTOD stations; thick dashed lines are ridges and rises) 3 5(a). General circulation and position of fronts...route A, leg one 29 15. VrTOD temperature section to 2000 m from Sydney to station 12 (30058’S, 179 030’W) for 28 July to 12 August 1987. Winter survey...four 58 37. VCTOD temperature section to 2000 m from Samoa to station 22for 24 August to 5 September 1987. (x show deepest point reached at each

APOC3 -482C>T polymorphism, circulating apolipoprotein C-III and smoking: interrelation and roles in predicting type-2 diabetes and coronary disease.

PubMed

Onat, Altan; Erginel-Unaltuna, Nihan; Coban, Neslihan; Ciçek, Gökhan; Yüksel, Hüsniye

2011-04-01

We determined the relationship of smoking status on APOC3 -482C>T polymorphism and apolipoprotein C-III (apoC-III) concentrations and the latter two parameters' influence on risk of diabetes and coronary heart disease (CHD). Prediction of incident cases was assessed at 5.5years' follow-up in unselected 519 individuals of a general population genotyped for -482C>T polymorphism. Female sex and current smoking were significantly associated with low circulating apoC-III in subjects without (p≤0.033) than with abdominal obesity (p=0.053) or than insulin resistant -482TT homozygotes (p=0.034) who had 20-30% higher serum apoC-III. Multi-adjusted serum apoC-III was log-linearly associated with fasting triglycerides. ApoC-III levels determined the development of diabetes [RR 1.56 (95%CI 1.21; 2.01)] and CHD [RR 1.38 (1.10; 1.72) for an increment of 14%], after adjustment for confounders. APOC3 -482TT genotype is associated with high apoC-III concentrations only in the presence of abdominal obesity or insulin resistance, but not in current smokers who remain lean or insulin-sensitive. Rather than APOC3 -482C>T polymorphism, circulating apoC-III determines cardiometabolic risk. Copyright © 2011 The Canadian Society of Clinical Chemists. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Tropical Pacific moisture variability: Its detection, synoptic structure and consequences in the general circulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mcguirk, James P.

1990-01-01

Satellite data analysis tools are developed and implemented for the diagnosis of atmospheric circulation systems over the tropical Pacific Ocean. The tools include statistical multi-variate procedures, a multi-spectral radiative transfer model, and the global spectral forecast model at NMC. Data include in-situ observations; satellite observations from VAS (moisture, infrared and visible) NOAA polar orbiters (including Tiros Operational Satellite System (TOVS) multi-channel sounding data and OLR grids) and scanning multichannel microwave radiometer (SMMR); and European Centre for Medium Weather Forecasts (ECHMWF) analyses. A primary goal is a better understanding of the relation between synoptic structures of the area, particularly tropical plumes, and the general circulation, especially the Hadley circulation. A second goal is the definition of the quantitative structure and behavior of all Pacific tropical synoptic systems. Finally, strategies are examined for extracting new and additional information from existing satellite observations. Although moisture structure is emphasized, thermal patterns are also analyzed. Both horizontal and vertical structures are studied and objective quantitative results are emphasized.

Understanding the Flushing Capability of Bellingham Bay and Its Implication on Bottom Water Hypoxia

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Taiping; Yang, Zhaoqing

2015-05-05

In this study, an unstructured-grid finite-volume coastal ocean model (FVCOM) was used to simulate hydrodynamic circulation and assess the flushing capability in Bellingham Bay, Washington, USA. The model was reasonably calibrated against field observations for water level, velocity and salinity, and was further used to calculate residence time distributions in the study site. The model results suggest that, despite the large tidal ranges (~4 m during spring tide), tidal currents are relatively weak in Bellingham Bay with surface currents generally below 0.5 m/s. The local residence time in Bellingham Bay varies from to near zero to as long as 15more » days, depending on the location and river flow condition. In general, Bellingham Bay is a well-flushed coastal embayment affected by freshwater discharge, tides, wind, and density-driven circulation. The basin-wide global residence time ranges from 5-7 days. The model results also provide useful information on possible causes of the emerging summertime hypoxia problem in the north central region of Bellingham Bay. It was concluded that the formation of the bottom hypoxic water should result from the increased consumption rate of oxygen in the bottom oceanic inflow with low dissolved oxygen by organic matters accumulated at the regions characterized with relatively long residence time in summer months.« less

Longitudinal biases in the Seychelles Dome simulated by 35 ocean-atmosphere coupled general circulation models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nagura, Motoki; Sasaki, Wataru; Tozuka, Tomoki; Luo, Jing-Jia; Behera, Swadhin K.; Yamagata, Toshio

2013-02-01

Seychelles Dome refers to the shallow climatological thermocline in the southwestern Indian Ocean, where ocean wave dynamics efficiently affect sea surface temperature, allowing sea surface temperature anomalies to be predicted up to 1-2 years in advance. Accurate reproduction of the dome by ocean-atmosphere coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) is essential for successful seasonal predictions in the Indian Ocean. This study examines the Seychelles Dome as simulated by 35 CGCMs, including models used in phase five of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Among the 35 CGCMs, 14 models erroneously produce an upwelling dome in the eastern half of the basin whereas the observed Seychelles Dome is located in the southwestern tropical Indian Ocean. The annual mean Ekman pumping velocity in these models is found to be almost zero in the southern off-equatorial region. This result is inconsistent with observations, in which Ekman upwelling acts as the main cause of the Seychelles Dome. In the models reproducing an eastward-displaced dome, easterly biases are prominent along the equator in boreal summer and fall, which result in shallow thermocline biases along the Java and Sumatra coasts via Kelvin wave dynamics and a spurious upwelling dome in the region. Compared to the CMIP3 models, the CMIP5 models are even worse in simulating the dome longitudes.

Performance of the general circulation models in simulating temperature and precipitation over Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abbasian, Mohammadsadegh; Moghim, Sanaz; Abrishamchi, Ahmad

2018-03-01

General Circulation Models (GCMs) are advanced tools for impact assessment and climate change studies. Previous studies show that the performance of the GCMs in simulating climate variables varies significantly over different regions. This study intends to evaluate the performance of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) GCMs in simulating temperature and precipitation over Iran. Simulations from 37 GCMs and observations from the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) were obtained for the period of 1901-2005. Six measures of performance including mean bias, root mean square error (RMSE), Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), linear correlation coefficient (r), Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic (KS), Sen's slope estimator, and the Taylor diagram are used for the evaluation. GCMs are ranked based on each statistic at seasonal and annual time scales. Results show that most GCMs perform reasonably well in simulating the annual and seasonal temperature over Iran. The majority of the GCMs have a poor skill to simulate precipitation, particularly at seasonal scale. Based on the results, the best GCMs to represent temperature and precipitation simulations over Iran are the CMCC-CMS (Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change) and the MRI-CGCM3 (Meteorological Research Institute), respectively. The results are valuable for climate and hydrometeorological studies and can help water resources planners and managers to choose the proper GCM based on their criteria.

Land surface hydrology parameterization for atmospheric general circulation models including subgrid scale spatial variability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Entekhabi, D.; Eagleson, P. S.

1989-01-01

Parameterizations are developed for the representation of subgrid hydrologic processes in atmospheric general circulation models. Reasonable a priori probability density functions of the spatial variability of soil moisture and of precipitation are introduced. These are used in conjunction with the deterministic equations describing basic soil moisture physics to derive expressions for the hydrologic processes that include subgrid scale variation in parameters. The major model sensitivities to soil type and to climatic forcing are explored.

A Weak Constraint 4D-Var Assimilation System for the Navy Coastal Model Using the Representer Method

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-01-01

the help of the Parametric Fortrai compiler (PFC), Erwig et al. 2007 . Some general circulation models of the complexity of NCOM have seen 1 similar...the Mir general circulation model (MITgcm, Marotzke et al. 1999) also used in the ECCO consortium assimilation experiments ( Stammer et al. 2002...using the« inverse Regional Ocean Modeling System (IROMS, Di Lorenzo et al. 2007 ) with horizontal resolutions of 10 and 30km. The CCS is a large

Technical report series on global modeling and data assimilation. Volume 1: Documentation of the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) General Circulation Model, version 1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Suarez, Max J. (Editor); Takacs, Lawrence L.; Molod, Andrea; Wang, Tina

1994-01-01

This technical report documents Version 1 of the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) General Circulation Model (GCM). The GEOS-1 GCM is being used by NASA's Data Assimilation Office (DAO) to produce multiyear data sets for climate research. This report provides a documentation of the model components used in the GEOS-1 GCM, a complete description of model diagnostics available, and a User's Guide to facilitate GEOS-1 GCM experiments.

Evidence of hepatitis A virus circulation in central Argentina: seroprevalence and environmental surveillance.

PubMed

Yanez, Laura A; Lucero, Noelia S; Barril, Patricia A; Díaz, María Del P; Tenaglia, María M; Spinsanti, Lorena I; Nates, Silvia V; Isa, María B; Ré, Viviana E

2014-01-01

Hepatitis A virus (HAV) has shown intermediate endemicity in Argentina, but notification of clinical cases has decreased since the introduction of the vaccine in 2005. In order to get insight into the local circulation of this virus after four years of the official introduction of the vaccine, the aims of this study were to provide information on HAV immune status of the adult population of Córdoba city and to conduct environmental surveillance of HAV in sewage and river samples in the same region. The prevalence of anti-HAV was determined by EIA in 416 samples of people (without prior vaccination) from Córdoba city (2009-2010). Spline regression models were estimated under generalized additive models. Environmental surveillance was conducted in river and sewage samples collected in the same period. Viral detection was performed by RT-Nested PCR of the 5'UTR. In Córdoba, the global prevalence of anti-HAV was 73.5%. It increased with age (p<0.0001) and it was associated with the low-income population (OR: 1.14; 95% CI 1.05-1.25). This prevalence decreased in younger age groups, especially in the high-income population. Environmental monitoring revealed the presence of HAV (IA) in 20.8% and 16.1% of wastewater and river samples, respectively. As a consequence of a decrease in HAV circulation due to improvements in immunization, socio-economic and hygienic conditions, young adults are becoming increasingly susceptible to HAV infections. Environmental monitoring demonstrated that HAV circulates in the local population; therefore, health care systems should consider the implementation of preventive measures for susceptible adults in order to reduce the risk of HAV infection. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Oxidative Burst of Circulating Neutrophils Following Traumatic Brain Injury in Human

PubMed Central

Liao, Yiliu; Liu, Peng; Guo, Fangyuan; Zhang, Zhi-Yuan; Zhang, Zhiren

2013-01-01

Besides secondary injury at the lesional site, Traumatic brain injury (TBI) can cause a systemic inflammatory response, which may cause damage to initially unaffected organs and potentially further exacerbate the original injury. Here we investigated plasma levels of important inflammatory mediators, oxidative activity of circulating leukocytes, particularly focusing on neutrophils, from TBI subjects and control subjects with general trauma from 6 hours to 2 weeks following injury, comparing with values from uninjured subjects. We observed increased plasma level of inflammatory cytokines/molecules TNF-α, IL-6 and CRP, dramatically increased circulating leukocyte counts and elevated expression of TNF-α and iNOS in circulating leukocytes from TBI patients, which suggests a systemic inflammatory response following TBI. Our data further showed increased free radical production in leukocyte homogenates and elevated expression of key oxidative enzymes iNOS, COX-2 and NADPH oxidase (gp91phox) in circulating leukocytes, indicating an intense induction of oxidative burst following TBI, which is significantly greater than that in control subjects with general trauma. Furthermore, flow cytometry assay proved neutrophils as the largest population in circulation after TBI and showed significantly up-regulated oxidative activity and suppressed phagocytosis rate for circulating neutrophils following brain trauma. It suggests that the highly activated neutrophils might play an important role in the secondary damage, even outside the injured brain. Taken together, the potent systemic inflammatory response induced by TBI, especially the intensively increase oxidative activity of circulating leukocytes, mainly neutrophils, may lead to a systemic damage, dysfunction/damage of bystander tissues/organs and even further exacerbate secondary local damage. Controlling these pathophysiological processes may be a promising therapeutic strategy and will protect unaffected organs and the injured brain from the secondary damage. PMID:23894384

Circulating MKRN3 Levels Decline During Puberty in Healthy Boys.

PubMed

Busch, Alexander S; Hagen, Casper P; Almstrup, Kristian; Juul, Anders

2016-06-01

Initiation and progression of puberty requires concerted action of hypothalamic activating and inhibiting factors. Recently, cases of familial central precocious puberty have been linked to loss-of-function mutations of makorin RING-finger protein 3 (MKRN3) indicating a pivotal inhibitory role of the protein on GnRH secretion. To investigate peripubertal circulating MKRN3 levels in healthy boys. Population-based longitudinal study in healthy Danish boys. General community. Healthy boys (n = 60) aged (median [range]) 9.3 (5.8-11.8) years at baseline followed for 6.0 (0.5-7.6) years (2006-2014) with blood sampling every 6 months. None. Serum levels of MKRN3: 623 samples, median (range) 12 (2-14) per boy. MKRN3 levels declined before onset of puberty; the geometric mean (95% confidence interval) 5 years before onset of puberty vs last visit before onset of puberty was 216 (169-272) pg/mL vs 128 (118-139) pg/mL (P < .001), respectively. MKRN3 levels continued to decrease as puberty progressed. MKRN3 levels were not associated with age at onset of puberty. Declining MKRN3 before pubertal onset support MKRN3 as an inhibitor of GnRH secretion during midchildhood.

The climatic effects of nuclear war

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Turco, R. P.; Toon, O. B.; Ackerman, T. P.; Pollack, J. B.; Sagan, C.

1984-01-01

The effects of various US-USSR nuclear-exchange scenarios on global climate are investigated by means of computer simulations, summarizing the results of Turco et al. (1983) and follow-up studies using 3D global-circulation models. A nuclear-scenario model is used to determine the amounts of dust, smoke, radioactivity, and pyrotoxins generated by a particular type of nuclear exchange (such as a general 5,000-Mt exchange, a 1,000-Mt limited exchange, a 5,000-Mt hard-target counterforce attack, and a 100-Mt attack on cities only): a particle-microphysics model predicts the evolution of the dust and smoke particles; and a radiative-convective climate model estimates the effects of the dust and smoke clouds on the global radiation budget. The findings are presented in graphs, diagrams, and a table. Thick clouds blocking most sunlight over the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes for weeks or months and producing ground-temperature reductions of 20-40 C, disruption of global circulation patterns, and rapid spread of clouds to the Southern Hemisphere are among the 'nuclear-winter' effects predicted for the 5,000-Mt baseline case. The catastrophic consequences for plant, animal, and human populations are considered, and the revision of superpower nuclear strategies is urged.

Idealised modelling of ocean circulation driven by conductive and hydrothermal fluxes at the seabed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barnes, Jowan M.; Morales Maqueda, Miguel A.; Polton, Jeff A.; Megann, Alex P.

2018-02-01

Geothermal heating is increasingly recognised as an important factor affecting ocean circulation, with modelling studies suggesting that this heat source could lead to first-order changes in the formation rate of Antarctic Bottom Water, as well as a significant warming effect in the abyssal ocean. Where it has been represented in numerical models, however, the geothermal heat flux into the ocean is generally treated as an entirely conductive flux, despite an estimated one third of the global geothermal flux being introduced to the ocean via hydrothermal sources. A modelling study is presented which investigates the sensitivity of the geothermally forced circulation to the way heat is supplied to the abyssal ocean. An analytical two-dimensional model of the circulation is described, which demonstrates the effects of a volume flux through the ocean bed. A simulation using the NEMO numerical general circulation model in an idealised domain is then used to partition a heat flux between conductive and hydrothermal sources and explicitly test the sensitivity of the circulation to the formulation of the abyssal heat flux. Our simulations suggest that representing the hydrothermal flux as a mass exchange indeed changes the heat distribution in the abyssal ocean, increasing the advective heat transport from the abyss by up to 35% compared to conductive heat sources. Consequently, we suggest that the inclusion of hydrothermal fluxes can be an important addition to course-resolution ocean models.

Maritime Continent seasonal climate biases in AMIP experiments of the CMIP5 multimodel ensemble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Toh, Ying Ying; Turner, Andrew G.; Johnson, Stephanie J.; Holloway, Christopher E.

2018-02-01

The fidelity of 28 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) models in simulating mean climate over the Maritime Continent in the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) experiment is evaluated in this study. The performance of AMIP models varies greatly in reproducing seasonal mean climate and the seasonal cycle. The multi-model mean has better skill at reproducing the observed mean climate than the individual models. The spatial pattern of 850 hPa wind is better simulated than the precipitation in all four seasons. We found that model horizontal resolution is not a good indicator of model performance. Instead, a model's local Maritime Continent biases are somewhat related to its biases in the local Hadley circulation and global monsoon. The comparison with coupled models in CMIP5 shows that AMIP models generally performed better than coupled models in the simulation of the global monsoon and local Hadley circulation but less well at simulating the Maritime Continent annual cycle of precipitation. To characterize model systematic biases in the AMIP runs, we performed cluster analysis on Maritime Continent annual cycle precipitation. Our analysis resulted in two distinct clusters. Cluster I models are able to capture both the winter monsoon and summer monsoon shift, but they overestimate the precipitation; especially during the JJA and SON seasons. Cluster II models simulate weaker seasonal migration than observed, and the maximum rainfall position stays closer to the equator throughout the year. The tropics-wide properties of these clusters suggest a connection between the skill of simulating global properties of the monsoon circulation and the skill of simulating the regional scale of Maritime Continent precipitation.

Off-pump compared to minimal extracorporeal circulation surgery in coronary artery bypass grafting.

PubMed

Reuthebuch, Oliver; Koechlin, Luca; Gahl, Brigitta; Matt, Peter; Schurr, Ulrich; Grapow, Martin; Eckstein, Friedrich

2014-01-01

Coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) using extracorporeal circulation (ECC) is still the gold standard. However, alternative techniques have been developed to avoid ECC and its potential adverse effects. These encompass minimal extracorporeal circulation (MECC) or off-pump coronary artery bypass grafting (OPCAB). However, the prevailing potential benefits when comparing MECC and OPCABG are not yet clearly established. In this retrospective study we investigated the potential benefits of MECC and OPCABG in 697 patients undergoing CABG. Of these, 555 patients had been operated with MECC and 142 off-pump. The primary endpoint was Troponin T level as an indicator for myocardial damage. Study groups were not significantly different in general. However, patients undergoing OPCABG were significantly older (65.01 years ± 9.5 vs. 69.39 years ± 9.5; p value <0.001) with a higher Logistic EuroSCORE I (4.92% ± 6.5 vs. 5.88% ± 6.8; p value = 0.017). Operating off pump significantly reduced the need for intra-operative blood products (0.7% vs. 8.6%; p-value <0.001) and the length of stay in the intensive care unit (ICU) (2.04 days ± 2.63 vs. 2.76 days ± 2.79; p value <0.001). Regarding other blood values a significant difference could not be found in the adjusted calculations. The combined secondary endpoint, major cardiac or cerebrovascular events (MACCE), was equal in both groups as well. Coronary artery bypass grafting using MECC or OPCABG are two comparable techniques with advantages for OPCABG regarding the reduced need for intra-operative blood products and shorter length of stay in the ICU. However serological values and combined endpoint MACCE did not differ significantly in both groups.

Potential effects of climate change on ground water in Lansing, Michigan

USGS Publications Warehouse

Croley, T.E.; Luukkonen, C.L.

2003-01-01

Computer simulations involving general circulation models, a hydrologic modeling system, and a ground water flow model indicate potential impacts of selected climate change projections on ground water levels in the Lansing, Michigan, area. General circulation models developed by the Canadian Climate Centre and the Hadley Centre generated meteorology estimates for 1961 through 1990 (as a reference condition) and for the 20 years centered on 2030 (as a changed climate condition). Using these meteorology estimates, the Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory's hydrologic modeling system produced corresponding period streamflow simulations. Ground water recharge was estimated from the streamflow simulations and from variables derived from the general circulation models. The U.S. Geological Survey developed a numerical ground water flow model of the Saginaw and glacial aquifers in the Tri-County region surrounding Lansing, Michigan. Model simulations, using the ground water recharge estimates, indicate changes in ground water levels. Within the Lansing area, simulated ground water levels in the Saginaw aquifer declined under the Canadian predictions and increased under the Hadley.

Technical Report Series on Global Modeling and Data Assimilation. Volume 16; Filtering Techniques on a Stretched Grid General Circulation Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Takacs, Lawrence L.; Sawyer, William; Suarez, Max J. (Editor); Fox-Rabinowitz, Michael S.

1999-01-01

This report documents the techniques used to filter quantities on a stretched grid general circulation model. Standard high-latitude filtering techniques (e.g., using an FFT (Fast Fourier Transformations) to decompose and filter unstable harmonics at selected latitudes) applied on a stretched grid are shown to produce significant distortions of the prognostic state when used to control instabilities near the pole. A new filtering technique is developed which accurately accounts for the non-uniform grid by computing the eigenvectors and eigenfrequencies associated with the stretching. A filter function, constructed to selectively damp those modes whose associated eigenfrequencies exceed some critical value, is used to construct a set of grid-spaced weights which are shown to effectively filter without distortion. Both offline and GCM (General Circulation Model) experiments are shown using the new filtering technique. Finally, a brief examination is also made on the impact of applying the Shapiro filter on the stretched grid.

Integrated and spectral energetics of the GLAS general circulation model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tenenbaum, J.

1982-01-01

Integrated and spectral error energetics of the GLAS General circulation model are compared with observations for periods in January 1975, 1976, and 1977. For two cases the model shows significant skill in predicting integrated energetics quantities out to two weeks, and for all three cases, the integrated monthly mean energetics show qualitative improvements over previous versions of the model in eddy kinetic energy and barotropic conversions. Fundamental difficulties remain with leakage of energy to the stratospheric level, particularly above strong initial jet streams associated in part with regions of steep terrain. The spectral error growth study represents the first comparison of general circulation model spectral energetics predictions with the corresponding observational spectra on a day by day basis. The major conclusion is that eddy kinetics energy can be correct while significant errors occur in the kinetic energy of wavenumber 3. Both the model and observations show evidence of single wavenumber dominance in eddy kinetic energy and the correlation of spectral kinetics and potential energy.

The Latest on the Venus Thermospheric General Circulation Model: Capabilities and Simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brecht, A. S.; Bougher, S. W.; Parkinson, C. D.

2017-01-01

Venus has a complex and dynamic upper atmosphere. This has been observed many times by ground-based, orbiters, probes, and fly-by missions going to other planets. Two over-arching questions are generally asked when examining the Venus upper atmosphere: (1) what creates the complex structure in the atmosphere, and (2) what drives the varying dynamics. A great way to interpret and connect observations to address these questions utilizes numerical modeling; and in the case of the middle and upper atmosphere (above the cloud tops), a 3D hydrodynamic numerical model called the Venus Thermospheric General Circulation Model (VTGCM) can be used. The VTGCM can produce climatological averages of key features in comparison to observations (i.e. nightside temperature, O2 IR nightglow emission). More recently, the VTGCM has been expanded to include new chemical constituents and airglow emissions, as well as new parameterizations to address waves and their impact on the varying global circulation and corresponding airglow distributions.

A general circulation model study of the solar and QBO modulation of the stratospheric circulation during the northern hemisphere winter

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kodera, Kunihiko; Chiba, Masaru; Shibata, Kiyotaka

1991-07-01

A general circulation model has been used to study the modulation of north-polar temperatures during winter by both solar activity and the equatorial quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). The variation of solar activity was simulated by changing the heating rate due to the absorption of ultraviolet (UV) radiation by ozone, while the QBO zonal wind fields were reproduced by incorporating zonal-momentum sources in the equatorial stratosphere. A total of 10 experiments were conducted by changing the heating rate from 70 to 110% for each of the simulated QBO easterly and westerly cases. The results of the numerical experiments show modulation effects similarmore » to those found by Labitzke (1987) in the 30-mb temperatures at the North Pole.« less

Combined ice core and climate-model evidence for the collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet during Marine Isotope Stage 5e.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steig, Eric J.; Huybers, Kathleen; Singh, Hansi A.; Steiger, Nathan J.; Frierson, Dargan M. W.; Popp, Trevor; White, James W. C.

2015-04-01

It has been speculated that collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet explains the very high eustatic sea level rise during the last interglacial period, marine isotope stage (MIS) 5e, but the evidence remains equivocal. Changes in atmospheric circulation resulting from a collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) would have significant regional impacts that should be detectable in ice core records. We conducted simulations using general circulation models (GCMs) at varying levels of complexity: a gray-radiation aquaplanet moist GCM (GRaM), the slab ocean version of GFDL-AM2 (also as an aquaplanet), and the fully-coupled version of NCAR's CESM with realistic topography. In all the experiments, decreased elevation from the removal of the WAIS leads to greater cyclonic circulation over the West Antarctic region. This creates increased advection of relatively warm marine air from the Amundsen-Bellingshausen Seas towards the South Pole, and increased cold-air advection from the East Antarctic plateau towards the Ross Sea and coastal Marie Byrd Land. The result is anomalous warming in some areas of the East Antarctic interior, and significant cooling in Marie Byrd Land. Comparison of ice core records shows good agreement with the model predictions. In particular, isotope-paleotemperature records from ice cores in East Antarctica warmed more between the previous glacial period (MIS 6) and MIS 5e than coastal Marie Byrd Land. These results add substantial support to other evidence for WAIS collapse during the last interglacial period.

Relation of Erectile Dysfunction to Subclinical Myocardial Injury.

PubMed

Omland, Torbjørn; Randby, Anna; Hrubos-Strøm, Harald; Røsjø, Helge; Einvik, Gunnar

2016-12-15

The circulating concentration of cardiac troponin I (cTnI) is an index of subclinical myocardial injury in several patient populations and in the general population. Erectile dysfunction is associated with greater risk for cardiovascular events, but the association with subclinical myocardial injury is not known. We aimed to test the hypothesis that the presence and severity of erectile dysfunction is associated with greater concentrations of cTnI in the general population. The presence and severity of erectile dysfunction was assessed by administering the International Index of Erectile Function 5 (IIEF-5) questionnaire to 260 men aged 30 to 65 years recruited from a population-based study. Concentrations of cTnI were determined by a high-sensitivity (hs) assay. Hs-cTnI levels were significantly higher in subjects with than in those without erectile dysfunction (median 2.9 vs 1.6 ng/l; p <0.001). Men with erectile dysfunction (i.e., IIEF-5 sum score <22) were also significantly older; had a higher systolic blood pressure, lower estimated glomerular filtration rate, higher augmentation index and N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide; and had a higher prevalence of hypertension, diabetes mellitus, and previous coronary artery disease than subjects without erectile dysfunction. These covariates were adjusted for in a multivariate linear regression model, yet the IIEF-5 sum score remained significantly negatively associated with the hs-cTnI concentration (standardized β -0.206; p <0.001). In conclusion, the presence and severity of erectile dysfunction is associated with circulating concentrations of hs-cTnI, indicating subclinical myocardial injury independently of cardiovascular risk factors, endothelial dysfunction and heart failure biomarkers. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Equine fetal adrenal, gonadal and placental steroidogenesis.

PubMed

Legacki, Erin L; Ball, Barry A; Corbin, C Jo; Loux, Shavahn C; Scoggin, Kirsten E; Stanley, Scott D; Conley, Alan J

2017-10-01

Equine fetuses have substantial circulating pregnenolone concentrations and thus have been postulated to provide significant substrate for placental 5α-reduced pregnane production, but the fetal site of pregnenolone synthesis remains unclear. The current studies investigated steroid concentrations in blood, adrenal glands, gonads and placenta from fetuses (4, 6, 9 and 10 months of gestational age (GA)), as well as tissue steroidogenic enzyme transcript levels. Pregnenolone and dehydroepiandrosterone (DHEA) were the most abundant steroids in fetal blood, pregnenolone was consistently higher but decreased progressively with GA. Tissue steroid concentrations generally paralleled those in serum with time. Adrenal and gonadal tissue pregnenolone concentrations were similar and 100-fold higher than those in allantochorion. DHEA was far higher in gonads than adrenals and progesterone was higher in adrenals than gonads. Androstenedione decreased with GA in adrenals but not in gonads. Transcript analysis generally supported these data. CYP17A1 was higher in fetal gonads than adrenals or allantochorion, and HSD3B1 was higher in fetal adrenals and allantochorion than gonads. CYP11A1 transcript was also significantly higher in adrenals and gonads than allantochorion and CYP19 and SRD5A1 transcripts were higher in allantochorion than either fetal adrenals or gonads. Given these data, and their much greater size, the fetal gonads are the source of DHEA and likely contribute more than fetal adrenal glands to circulating fetal pregnenolone concentrations. Low CYP11A1 but high HSD3B1 and SRD5A1 transcript abundance in allantochorion, and low tissue pregnenolone, suggests that endogenous placental pregnenolone synthesis is low and likely contributes little to equine placental 5α-reduced pregnane secretion. © 2017 Society for Reproduction and Fertility.

Using the Gamma-Poisson Model to Predict Library Circulations.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Burrell, Quentin L.

1990-01-01

Argues that the gamma mixture of Poisson processes, for all its perceived defects, can be used to make predictions regarding future library book circulations of a quality adequate for general management requirements. The use of the model is extensively illustrated with data from two academic libraries. (Nine references) (CLB)

Sensitivity of Statistical Downscaling Techniques to Reanalysis Choice and Implications for Regional Climate Change Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manzanas, R., Sr.; Brands, S.; San Martin, D., Sr.; Gutiérrez, J. M., Sr.

2014-12-01

This work shows that local-scale climate projections obtained by means of statistical downscaling are sensitive to the choice of reanalysis used for calibration. To this aim, a Generalized Linear Model (GLM) approach is applied to downscale daily precipitation in the Philippines. First, the GLMs are trained and tested -under a cross-validation scheme- separately for two distinct reanalyses (ERA-Interim and JRA-25) for the period 1981-2000. When the observed and downscaled time-series are compared, the attained performance is found to be sensitive to the reanalysis considered if climate change signal bearing variables (temperature and/or specific humidity) are included in the predictor field. Moreover, performance differences are shown to be in correspondence with the disagreement found between the raw predictors from the two reanalyses. Second, the regression coefficients calibrated either with ERA-Interim or JRA-25 are subsequently applied to the output of a Global Climate Model (MPI-ECHAM5) in order to assess the sensitivity of local-scale climate change projections (up to 2100) to reanalysis choice. In this case, the differences detected in present climate conditions are considerably amplified, leading to "delta-change" estimates differing by up to a 35% (on average for the entire country) depending on the reanalysis used for calibration. Therefore, reanalysis choice is shown to importantly contribute to the uncertainty of local-scale climate change projections, and, consequently, should be treated with equal care as other, well-known, sources of uncertainty -e.g., the choice of the GCM and/or downscaling method.- Implications of the results for the entire tropics, as well as for the Model Output Statistics downscaling approach are also briefly discussed.

Respective roles of direct GHG radiative forcing and induced Arctic sea ice loss on the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oudar, Thomas; Sanchez-Gomez, Emilia; Chauvin, Fabrice; Cattiaux, Julien; Terray, Laurent; Cassou, Christophe

2017-12-01

The large-scale and synoptic-scale Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation responses to projected late twenty-first century Arctic sea ice decline induced by increasing Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) concentrations are investigated using the CNRM-CM5 coupled model. An original protocol, based on a flux correction technique, allows isolating the respective roles of GHG direct radiative effect and induced Arctic sea ice loss under RCP8.5 scenario. In winter, the surface atmospheric response clearly exhibits opposing effects between GHGs increase and Arctic sea ice loss, leading to no significant pattern in the total response (particularly in the North Atlantic region). An analysis based on Eady growth rate shows that Arctic sea ice loss drives the weakening in the low-level meridional temperature gradient, causing a general decrease of the baroclinicity in the mid and high latitudes, whereas the direct impact of GHGs increase is more located in the mid-to-high troposphere. Changes in the flow waviness, evaluated from sinuosity and blocking frequency metrics, are found to be small relative to inter-annual variability.

[Distribution of environmental temperature and relative humidity according to the number of conditioned air changes in laboratory animals rooms].

PubMed

Fujita, S; Obara, T; Tanaka, I; Yamauchi, C

1981-01-01

The relation of the rate of circulating air change to room temperature and relative humidity in animal quarters with a central air-conditioning system during heating and cooling seasons was investigated, with the results as follows: During the period of heating, the ambient temperature generally rose with a fall of relative humidity as the number of conditioned air changes per hour was increased. Vertical differences in temperature and humidity between levels of 0.5 and 1.5 m above the floor also diminished with increasing air change rate. This tendency was more conspicuous in small animals rooms with outer walls facing north and west. With increasing rate of air changes, the room temperature was prone to decline and the relative humidity to rise during the period of cooling. There were less vertical differences in temperature and humidity during this period. The velocity of air circulation within the animal quarters and its variations tended to increase progressively with increasing rate of ventilation, though the changes were modest.

Tropical Meridional Overturning Circulation Observed by Subsurface Moorings in the Western Pacific.

PubMed

Song, Lina; Li, Yuanlong; Wang, Jianing; Wang, Fan; Hu, Shijian; Liu, Chuanyu; Diao, Xinyuan; Guan, Cong

2018-05-16

Meridional ocean current in the northwestern Pacific was documented by seven subsurface moorings deployed at 142°E during August 2014-October 2015. A sandwich structure of the tropical meridional overturning circulation (TMOC) was revealed between 0-6°N that consists of a surface northward flow (0-80 m), a thermocline southward flow (80-260 m; 22.6-26.5 σ θ ), and a subthermocline northward flow (260-500 m; 26.5-26.9 σ θ ). Based on mooring data, along with satellite and reanalysis data, prominent seasonal-to-interannual variations were observed in all three layers, and the equatorial zonal winds were found to be a dominant cause of the variations. The TMOC is generally stronger in boreal winter and weaker in summer. During 2014-2015, the TMOC was greatly weakened by westerly wind anomalies associated with the El Niño condition. Further analysis suggests that the TMOC can affect equatorial surface temperature in the western Pacific through anomalous upwelling/downwelling and likely plays a vital role in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO).

Stratospheric Ozone Distribution and Tropospheric General Circulation: Interconnections in the UTLS Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barodka, S.; Krasovsky, A.; Shalamyansky, A.

2014-12-01

The height of the tropopause, which divided the stratosphere and the troposphere, is a result of two rival categories of processes: the tropospheric vertical convection and the radiative heating of the stratosphere resulting from the ozone cycle. Hence, it is natural that tropospheric and stratospheric phenomena can have effect each other in manifold processes of stratosphere-troposphere interactions. In the present study we focus our attention to the "top-down" side of the interaction: the impact of stratospheric ozone distribution on the features of tropospheric circulation and the associated weather patterns and regional climate conditions. We proceed from analyzes of the observational data performed at the A.I. Voeikov Main Geophysical Observatory, which suggest a distinct correlation between stratospheric ozone distribution, synoptic formations and air-masses boundaries in the upper troposphere and the temperature field of the lower stratosphere [1]. Furthermore, we analyze local features of atmospheric general circulation and stratospheric ozone distribution from the atmospheric reanalyses and general circulation model data, focusing our attention to instantaneous positions of subtropical and polar stationary atmospheric fronts, which define regional characteristics of the general circulation cells in the troposphere and separate global tropospheric air-masses, correspond to distinct meteorological regimes in the TOC field [2, 3]. We assume that by altering the tropopause height, stratospheric ozone-related processes can have an impact on the location of the stationary atmospheric fronts, thereby exerting influence on circulation processes in troposphere and lower stratosphere. For midlatitudes, the tropopause height controls the position of the polar stationary front, which has a direct impact on the trajectory of motion of active vortices on synoptic tropospheric levels, thereby controlling weather patterns in that region and the regional climate. This mechanism is particularly important for the formation of blocking events. [1] A.M. Shalamyansky - Proceedings of Voeikov Main Geophysical Observatory, V. 568, pp. 173-194, 2013 (in Russian) [2] R.D. Hudson et al - J. Atmos. Sci., V. 60, pp. 1669-1677, 2003. [3] R.D. Hudson et al - Atmos. Chem. Phys., V. 6, pp. 5183-5191, 2006.

An approach for modeling thermal destruction of hazardous wastes in circulating fluidized bed incinerator.

PubMed

Patil, M P; Sonolikar, R L

2008-10-01

This paper presents a detailed computational fluid dynamics (CFD) based approach for modeling thermal destruction of hazardous wastes in a circulating fluidized bed (CFB) incinerator. The model is based on Eular - Lagrangian approach in which gas phase (continuous phase) is treated in a Eularian reference frame, whereas the waste particulate (dispersed phase) is treated in a Lagrangian reference frame. The reaction chemistry hasbeen modeled through a mixture fraction/ PDF approach. The conservation equations for mass, momentum, energy, mixture fraction and other closure equations have been solved using a general purpose CFD code FLUENT4.5. Afinite volume method on a structured grid has been used for solution of governing equations. The model provides detailed information on the hydrodynamics (gas velocity, particulate trajectories), gas composition (CO, CO2, O2) and temperature inside the riser. The model also allows different operating scenarios to be examined in an efficient manner.

The 2008 Super Tuesday Tornado Outbreak: Synthetic Dual Doppler Analysis of Contrasting Tornadic Storm Types

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Knupp, Kevin R.; Coleman, Timothy; Carey, Larry; Peterson, Walt; Elkins, Calvin

2008-01-01

During the Super Tuesday Tornado Outbreak on 5-6 February, a significant number of storms passed within about 40 km of WSR-88D radars. This distance, combined with the significant motion vector (from the southwest at 20-25 m per second) of relatively steady storms, is amenable to a synthetic dual Doppler analysis during the times when the storms passed the WSR-88D locations. Nine storms will be analyzed using the SDD technique. The following table provides their general characteristics and nearest approach to the 88D radars. For this data set, storm structure ranges from isolated supercell to QLCS. Each storm will be analyzed for a 40-60 min period during passage by the WSR-88D radar to determine general storm properties. Analysis of high-resolution single Doppler data around the time of passage (plus or minus 30 min), combined with 1-2 SDD analyses, will be used to examine the kinematic structure of low-level circulations (e.g., mesocyclone, downdraft) and the relation to the parent storm. This analysis may provide insights on the fundamental differences between cyclonic circulations in supercell storms and those within QCLS's.

General circulation model response to production-limited fossil fuel emission estimates.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bowman, K. W.; Rutledge, D.; Miller, C.

2008-12-01

The differences in emissions scenarios used to drive IPCC climate projections are the largest sources of uncertainty in future temperature predictions. These estimates are critically dependent on oil, gas, and coal production where the extremal variations in fossil fuel production used in these scenarios is roughly 10:1 after 2100. The development of emission scenarios based on production-limited fossil fuel estimates, i.e., total fossil fuel reserves can be reliably predicted from cumulative production, offers the opportunity to significantly reduce this uncertainty. We present preliminary results of the response of the NASA GISS atmospheric general circulation model to input forcings constrained by production-limited cumulative future fossil-fuel CO2 emissions estimates that reach roughly 500 GtC by 2100, which is significantly lower than any of the IPCC emission scenarios. For climate projections performed from 1958 through 2400 and a climate sensitivity of 5C/2xCO2, the change in globally averaged annual mean temperature relative to fixed CO2 does not exceed 3C with most changes occurring at high latitudes. We find that from 2100-2400 other input forcings such as increased in N2O play an important role in maintaining increase surface temperatures.

Importance of 5α-reductase gene polymorphisms on circulating and intraprostatic androgens in prostate cancer.

PubMed

Lévesque, Éric; Laverdière, Isabelle; Lacombe, Louis; Caron, Patrick; Rouleau, Mélanie; Turcotte, Véronique; Têtu, Bernard; Fradet, Yves; Guillemette, Chantal

2014-02-01

Polymorphisms in the genes SRD5A1 and SRD5A2 encoding androgen biosynthetic 5α-reductase enzymes have been associated with an altered risk of biochemical recurrence after radical prostatectomy in localized prostate cancer. To gain potential insights into SRD5A biologic effects, we examined the relationship between SRD5A prognostic markers and endogenous sex-steroid levels measured by mass spectrometry in plasma samples and corresponding prostatic tissues of patients with prostate cancer. We report that five of the seven SRD5A markers differentially affect sex-steroid profiles of dihydrotestosterone and its metabolites in both the circulation and prostatic tissues of patients with prostate cancer. Remarkably, a 32% increase in intraprostatic testosterone levels was observed in the presence of the high-risk SRD5A rs2208532 polymorphism. Moreover, SRD5A2 markers were associated predominantly with circulating levels of inactive glucuronides. Indeed, the rs12470143 SRD5A2 protective allele was associated with high circulating androstane-3α, 17β-diol-17-glucuronide (3α-diol-17G) levels as opposed to lower levels of both 3α-diol-17G and androsterone-glucuronide observed with the rs2208532 SRD5A2 risk allele. Moreover, SRD5A2 rs676033 and rs523349 (V89L) risk variants, in strong linkage disequilibrium, were associated with higher circulating levels of 3α-diol-3G. The SRD5A2 rs676033 variant further correlated with enhanced intraprostatic exposure to 5α-reduced steroids (dihydrotestosterone and its metabolite 3β-diol). Similarly, the SRD5A1 rs166050C risk variant was associated with greater prostatic exposure to androsterone, whereas no association was noted with circulating steroids. Our data support the association of 5α-reductase germline polymorphisms with the hormonal milieu in patients with prostate cancer. Further studies are needed to evaluate if these variants influence 5α-reductase inhibitor efficacy. ©2013 AACR.

Walker circulation in a transient climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Plesca, Elina; Grützun, Verena; Buehler, Stefan A.

2016-04-01

The tropical overturning circulations modulate the heat exchange across the tropics and between the tropics and the poles. The anthropogenic influence on the climate system will affect these circulations, impacting the dynamics of the Earth system. In this work we focus on the Walker circulation. We investigate its temporal and spatial dynamical changes and their link to other climate features, such as surface and sea-surface temperature patterns, El-Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and ocean heat-uptake, both at global and regional scale. In order to determine the impact of anthropogenic climate change on the tropical circulation, we analyze the outputs of 28 general circulation models (GCMs) from the CMIP5 project. We use the experiment with 1% year-1 increase in CO2 concentration from pre-industrial levels to quadrupling of the concentration. Consistent with previous studies (ex. Ma and Xie 2013), we find that for this experiment most GCMs associate a weakening Walker circulation to a warming transient climate. Due to the role of the Walker Pacific cell in the meridional heat and moisture transport across the tropical Pacific and also the connection to ENSO, we find that a weakened Walker circulation correlates with more extreme El-Niño events, although without a change in their frequency. The spatial analysis of the Pacific Walker cell suggests an eastward displacement of the ascending branch, which is consistent with positive SST anomalies over the tropical Pacific and the link of the Pacific Walker cell to ENSO. Recent studies (ex. England et al. 2014) have linked a strengthened Walker circulation to stronger ocean heat uptake, especially in the western Pacific. The inter-model comparison of the correlation between Walker circulation intensity and ocean heat uptake does not convey a robust response for the investigated experiment. However, there is some evidence that a stronger weakening of the Walker circulation is linked to a higher transient climate response (temperature change by the time of CO2 doubling), which in turn might be related to a decreased ocean heat uptake. This uncertainty across the models we attribute to the multitude of factors controlling ocean and atmosphere heat exchange, both at global and regional scales, as well as to the present capabilities of GCMs in simulating this exchange. References: England, M. H., McGregor, S., Spence, P., Meehl, G. A., Timmermann, A., Cai, W., Gupta, A. S., McPhaden, M. J., Purich, A., and Santoso, A., 2014. Recent intensification of wind-driven circulation in the Pacific and the ongoing warming hiatus. Nature Climate Change 4 (3): 222-227. Ma, J., and Xie, S. P., 2013. Regional Patterns of Sea Surface Temperature Change: A Source of Uncertainty in Future Projections of Precipitation and Atmospheric Circulation*. Journal of Climate, 26 (8): 2482-2501

Absence of the genicular arterial anastomosis as generally depicted in textbooks

PubMed Central

Sabalbal, M; Johnson, M

2013-01-01

Introduction Textbook representations of the genicular arterial anastomosis show a large direct communication between the descending branch of the lateral circumflex femoral artery (DBLCFA) and a genicular branch of the popliteal artery but this is not compatible with clinical experience. The aim of this study was to determine whether the arterial anastomosis at the knee is sufficient, in the event of traumatic disruption of the superficial femoral artery, to infuse protective agents or to place a stent to restore flow to the lower leg. Methods Dissection of ten cadaveric lower limbs was performed to photograph the arterial anatomy from the inguinal ligament to the tibial tubercle. Anastomosis with branches of the popliteal artery was classified as: ‘direct communication’, ‘approaching communication’ or ‘no evident communication’. Results A constant descending artery in the lateral thigh (LDAT) was found to have five types of origin: Type 1 (2/10 limbs) involved the lateral circumflex femoral branch of the femoral artery, Type 2 (3/10 limbs) the lateral circumflex femoral branch of the profunda femoris artery, Type 3 (1/10 limbs) the femoral artery, Type 4 (3/10 limbs) the superficial femoral artery and Type 5 (2/10 limbs) the profunda femoris artery. In one limb, there were two descending arteries (Types 4 and 5). Collateral circulation at the knee was also variable: direct communicating vessels (3/10 limbs); approaching vessels with possible communication via capillaries (5/10 limbs); no evident communication (2/10 limbs). Communicating vessels, if present, are too small to provide immediate collateral circulation. Conclusions Modern representations of the genicular arterial anastomosis are inaccurate, derived commonly from an idealised image that first appeared Gray’s Anatomy in 1910. The afferent vessel is not the DBLCFA. The majority of subjects have the potential to recruit collateral circulation via the LDAT following gradual obstruction to normal arterial flow, which may be important if the LDAT is removed for bypass or flap surgery. A direct communication is rarely present and is never as robust as generally depicted in textbooks. PMID:24025288

Experimental investigation of moving surfaces for boundary layer and circulation control of airfoils and wings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vets, Robert

An experimental study was conducted to assess the application of a moving surface to affect boundary layers and circulation around airfoils for the purpose of altering and enhancing aerodynamic performance of finite wings at moderate Reynolds numbers. The moving surface was established by a wide, lightweight, nylon belt that enveloped a wing's symmetric airfoil profile articulated via a friction drive cylinder such that the direction of the upper surface was in the direction of the free stream. A water tunnel visualization study accompanied wind tunnel testing at the University of Washington, Kirsten Wind Tunnel of finite wings. An experimental study was conducted to assess the application of a moving surface to affect boundary layers and circulation around airfoils for the purpose of altering and enhancing aerodynamic performance of finite wings at moderate Reynolds numbers. The moving surface was established by a wide, lightweight, nylon belt that enveloped a wing's symmetric airfoil profile articulated via a friction drive cylinder such that the direction of the upper surface was in the direction of the free stream. A water tunnel visualization study accompanied wind tunnel testing at the University of Washington, Kirsten Wind Tunnel of finite wings. The defining non-dimensional parameter for the system is the ratio of the surface velocity to the free stream velocity, us/Uo. Results show a general increase in lift with increasing us/Uo. The endurance parameter served as an additional metric for the system's performance. Examining the results of the endurance parameter shows general increase in endurance and lift with the moving surface activated. Peak performance in terms of increased endurance along with increased lift occurs at or slightly above us/Uo = 1. Water tunnel visualization showed a marked difference in the downwash for velocity ratios greater than 1, supporting the measured data. Reynolds numbers for this investigation were 1.9E5 and 4.3E5, relevant to the class of fixed wing, Tier-1, Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV).

Streptococcus pneumoniae carriage among healthy and sick pediatric patients before the generalized implementation of the 13-valent pneumococcal vaccine in Morocco from 2010 to 2011.

PubMed

Jroundi, Imane; Mahraoui, Chafik; Benmessaoud, Rachid; Moraleda, Cinta; Munoz Almagro, Carmen; Seffar, Meryem; Tligui, Houssain; Kettani, Selma C; Benjelloun, Badr S; Alonso, Pedro L; Bassat, Quique

Nasopharyngeal carriage studies provide insights into the local prevalence of circulating pneumococcal serotypes. These data are critical to vaccination monitoring, as they allow for the prediction and assessment of impact. Very little data are available on the carriage of pneumococcal serotypes in Morocco. Here, we describe the prevalence of Streptococcus pneumoniae carriage and serotype distribution among 697 pediatric patients with ages ranging from 2 to 59 months who were admitted to a Moroccan hospital with severe pneumonia, as well as 195 healthy infants and young children who were recruited at a vaccination clinic. Carriage rates were 40.5% (79/195) for healthy children and 22.8% (159/697) for sick children. The most commonly observed circulating serotypes included 6A, 6B and 19F, all of which are included in the current 13-valent anti-pneumococcal conjugate vaccine that was recently introduced in Morocco. Monitoring of circulating serotypes remains necessary after vaccine introduction to assess whether serotype replacement is occurring. Copyright © 2016 King Saud Bin Abdulaziz University for Health Sciences. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Marli: Mars Lidar for Global Wind Profiles and Aerosol Profiles from Orbit

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Abshire, J. B.; Guzewich, S. D.; Smith, M. D.; Riris, H.; Sun, X.; Gentry, B. M.; Yu, A.; Allan, G. R.

2016-01-01

The Mars Exploration Analysis Group's Next Orbiter Science Analysis Group (NEXSAG) has recently identified atmospheric wind measurements as one of 5 top compelling science objectives for a future Mars orbiter. To date, only isolated lander observations of martian winds exist. Winds are the key variable to understand atmospheric transport and answer fundamental questions about the three primary cycles of the martian climate: CO2, H2O, and dust. However, the direct lack of observations and imprecise and indirect inferences from temperature observations leave many basic questions about the atmospheric circulation unanswered. In addition to addressing high priority science questions, direct wind observations from orbit would help validate 3D general circulation models (GCMs) while also providing key input to atmospheric reanalyses. The dust and CO2 cycles on Mars are partially coupled and their influences on the atmospheric circulation modify the global wind field. Dust absorbs solar infrared radiation and its variable spatial distribution forces changes in the atmospheric temperature and wind fields. Thus it is important to simultaneously measure the height-resolved wind and dust profiles. MARLI provides a unique capability to observe these variables continuously, day and night, from orbit.

Studies in the parameterization of cloudiness in climate models and the analysis of radiation fields in general circulation models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

HARSHVARDHAN

1990-01-01

Broad-band parameterizations for atmospheric radiative transfer were developed for clear and cloudy skies. These were in the shortwave and longwave regions of the spectrum. These models were compared with other models in an international effort called ICRCCM (Intercomparison of Radiation Codes for Climate Models). The radiation package developed was used for simulations of a General Circulation Model (GCM). A synopsis is provided of the research accomplishments in the two areas separately. Details are available in the published literature.

Equatorial waves in the NCAR stratospheric general circulation model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Boville, B. A.

1985-01-01

Equatorially trapped wave modes are very important in the tropical stratospheric momentum balance. Kelvin waves and mixed Rossby-gravity waves are believed to be responsible for the quasi-biennial oscillation of the zonal winds in the equatorial lower stratosphere. Both Kelvin and mixed Rossby-gravity waves have been identified in observations and in numerical models. Kelvin and mixed Rossby-gravity waves are identified in a general circulation model extending from the surface into the mesosphere and looks at the effect on the waves of lowering the top of the model.

The significance of cloud-radiative forcing to the general circulation on climate time scales - A satellite interpretation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sohn, Byung-Ju; Smith, Eric A.

1992-01-01

This paper focuses on the role of cloud- and surface-atmosphere forcing on the net radiation balance and their potential impact on the general circulation at climate time scales. The globally averaged cloud-forcing estimates and cloud sensitivity values taken from various recent studies are summarized. It is shown that the net radiative heating over the tropics is principally due to high clouds, while the net cooling in mid- and high latitudes is dominated by low and middle clouds.

Experience with a vectorized general circulation weather model on Star-100

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Soll, D. B.; Habra, N. R.; Russell, G. L.

1977-01-01

A version of an atmospheric general circulation model was vectorized to run on a CDC STAR 100. The numerical model was coded and run in two different vector languages, CDC and LRLTRAN. A factor of 10 speed improvement over an IBM 360/95 was realized. Efficient use of the STAR machine required some redesigning of algorithms and logic. This precludes the application of vectorizing compilers on the original scalar code to achieve the same results. Vector languages permit a more natural and efficient formulation for such numerical codes.

Tuning the climate sensitivity of a global model to match 20th Century warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mauritsen, T.; Roeckner, E.

2015-12-01

A climate models ability to reproduce observed historical warming is sometimes viewed as a measure of quality. Yet, for practical reasons historical warming cannot be considered a purely empirical result of the modelling efforts because the desired result is known in advance and so is a potential target of tuning. Here we explain how the latest edition of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Earth System Model (MPI-ESM1.2) atmospheric model (ECHAM6.3) had its climate sensitivity systematically tuned to about 3 K; the MPI model to be used during CMIP6. This was deliberately done in order to improve the match to observed 20th Century warming over the previous model generation (MPI-ESM, ECHAM6.1) which warmed too much and had a sensitivity of 3.5 K. In the process we identified several controls on model cloud feedback that confirm recently proposed hypotheses concerning trade-wind cumulus and high-latitude mixed-phase clouds. We then evaluate the model fidelity with centennial global warming and discuss the relative importance of climate sensitivity, forcing and ocean heat uptake efficiency in determining the response as well as possible systematic biases. The activity of targeting historical warming during model development is polarizing the modeling community with 35 percent of modelers stating that 20th Century warming was rated very important to decisive, whereas 30 percent would not consider it at all. Likewise, opinions diverge as to which measures are legitimate means for improving the model match to observed warming. These results are from a survey conducted in conjunction with the first WCRP Workshop on Model Tuning in fall 2014 answered by 23 modelers. We argue that tuning or constructing models to match observed warming to some extent is practically unavoidable, and as such, in many cases might as well be done explicitly. For modeling groups that have the capability to tune both their aerosol forcing and climate sensitivity there is now a unique opportunity to explore the bounds of our understanding - a low sensitivity model could be sustained by weak aerosol forcing, and a highly sensitive model could potentially be constructed to match observed warming by strong compensating aerosol cooling. This next natural step could constitute a new paradigm in climate modeling.

Zonally averaged model of dynamics, chemistry and radiation for the atmosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tung, K. K.

1985-01-01

A nongeostrophic theory of zonally averaged circulation is formulated using the nonlinear primitive equations on a sphere, taking advantage of the more direct relationship between the mean meridional circulation and diabatic heating rate which is available in isentropic coordinates. Possible differences between results of nongeostrophic theory and the commonly used geostrophic formulation are discussed concerning: (1) the role of eddy forcing of the diabatic circulation, and (2) the nonlinear nearly inviscid limit vs the geostrophic limit. Problems associated with the traditional Rossby number scaling in quasi-geostrophic formulations are pointed out and an alternate, more general scaling based on the smallness of mean meridional to zonal velocities for a rotating planet is suggested. Such a scaling recovers the geostrophic balanced wind relationship for the mean zonal flow but reveals that the mean meridional velocity is in general ageostrophic.

Exploring exomoon atmospheres with an idealized general circulation model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haqq-Misra, Jacob; Heller, René

2018-06-01

Recent studies have shown that large exomoons can form in the accretion disks around super-Jovian extrasolar planets. These planets are abundant at about 1 AU from Sun-like stars, which makes their putative moons interesting for studies of habitability. Technological advances could soon make an exomoon discovery with Kepler or the upcoming CHEOPS and PLATO space missions possible. Exomoon climates might be substantially different from exoplanet climates because the day-night cycles on moons are determined by the moon's synchronous rotation with its host planet. Moreover, planetary illumination at the top of the moon's atmosphere and tidal heating at the moon's surface can be substantial, which can affect the redistribution of energy on exomoons. Using an idealized general circulation model with simplified hydrologic, radiative, and convective processes, we calculate surface temperature, wind speed, mean meridional circulation, and energy transport on a 2.5 Mars-mass moon orbiting a 10-Jupiter-mass at 1 AU from a Sun-like star. The strong thermal irradiation from a young giant planet causes the satellite's polar regions to warm, which remains consistent with the dynamically-driven polar amplification seen in Earth models that lack ice-albedo feedback. Thermal irradiation from young, luminous giant planets onto water-rich exomoons can be strong enough to induce water loss on a planet, which could lead to a runaway greenhouse. Moons that are in synchronous rotation with their host planet and do not experience a runaway greenhouse could experience substantial polar melting induced by the polar amplification of planetary illumination and geothermal heating from tidal effects.

Simulating Mars' Dust Cycle with a Mars General Circulation Model: Effects of Water Ice Cloud Formation on Dust Lifting Strength and Seasonality

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kahre, Melinda A.; Haberle, Robert; Hollingsworth, Jeffery L.

2012-01-01

The dust cycle is critically important for the current climate of Mars. The radiative effects of dust impact the thermal and dynamical state of the atmosphere [1,2,3]. Although dust is present in the Martian atmosphere throughout the year, the level of dustiness varies with season. The atmosphere is generally the dustiest during northern fall and winter and the least dusty during northern spring and summer [4]. Dust particles are lifted into the atmosphere by dust storms that range in size from meters to thousands of kilometers across [5]. Regional storm activity is enhanced before northern winter solstice (Ls200 degrees - 240 degrees), and after northern solstice (Ls305 degrees - 340 degrees ), which produces elevated atmospheric dust loadings during these periods [5,6,7]. These pre- and post- solstice increases in dust loading are thought to be associated with transient eddy activity in the northern hemisphere with cross-equatorial transport of dust leading to enhanced dust lifting in the southern hemisphere [6]. Interactive dust cycle studies with Mars General Circulation Models (MGCMs) have included the lifting, transport, and sedimentation of radiatively active dust. Although the predicted global dust loadings from these simulations capture some aspects of the observed dust cycle, there are marked differences between the simulated and observed dust cycles [8,9,10]. Most notably, the maximum dust loading is robustly predicted by models to occur near northern winter solstice and is due to dust lifting associated with down slope flows on the flanks of the Hellas basin. Thus far, models have had difficulty simulating the observed pre- and post- solstice peaks in dust loading.

The Pattern and Dynamics of the Meridional Overturning Circulation in the Upper Ocean

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-09-01

Atlantic . Figure 4a shows that the center of meridional overturning circulation occurs at a level of about one kilometer. Circulation is weak at...maintenance of the meridional overturning circulation in the Atlantic Ocean. 5. Global Simulation The most exciting experiment would be to fully model the...mechanisms responsible for the strength and maintenance of the meridional overturning circulation in the Atlantic Ocean are not

A Survey of Private Ohio Academic Libraries' Physical Processing Practices for Circulating Books.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Factor, Olivia Spaid

Little guidance is given in today's general technical services or cataloging textbooks to assist librarians in making decisions on procedures for the physical preparation of materials prior to placement on the shelves for public access. As small, private academic libraries face automation of circulation, addition of security systems, and debates…

Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of the Automation of a Circulation System.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mosley, Isobel

A general methodology for cost effectiveness analysis was developed and applied to the Colorado State University library loan desk. The cost effectiveness of the existing semi-automated circulation system was compared with that of a fully manual one, based on the existing manual subsystem. Faculty users' time and computer operating costs were…

Neural Control of the Circulation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Thomas, Gail D.

2011-01-01

The purpose of this brief review is to highlight key concepts about the neural control of the circulation that graduate and medical students should be expected to incorporate into their general knowledge of human physiology. The focus is largely on the sympathetic nerves, which have a dominant role in cardiovascular control due to their effects to…

An Improved Heat Budget Estimation Including Bottom Effects for General Ocean Circulation Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Carder, Kendall; Warrior, Hari; Otis, Daniel; Chen, R. F.

2001-01-01

This paper studies the effects of the underwater light field on heat-budget calculations of general ocean circulation models for shallow waters. The presence of a bottom significantly alters the estimated heat budget in shallow waters, which affects the corresponding thermal stratification and hence modifies the circulation. Based on the data collected during the COBOP field experiment near the Bahamas, we have used a one-dimensional turbulence closure model to show the influence of the bottom reflection and absorption on the sea surface temperature field. The water depth has an almost one-to-one correlation with the temperature rise. Effects of varying the bottom albedo by replacing the sea grass bed with a coral sand bottom, also has an appreciable effect on the heat budget of the shallow regions. We believe that the differences in the heat budget for the shallow areas will have an influence on the local circulation processes and especially on the evaporative and long-wave heat losses for these areas. The ultimate effects on humidity and cloudiness of the region are expected to be significant as well.

Responses of dune activity and desertification in China to global warming in the twenty-first century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Xunming; Yang, Yi; Dong, Zhibao; Zhang, Caixia

2009-06-01

Most areas of arid and semiarid China are covered by aeolian sand dunes, sand sheets, and desert steppes, and the existence of the nearly 80 million people who live in this region could be seriously jeopardized if climate change increases desertification. However, the expected trends in desertification during the 21st century are poorly understood. In the present study, we selected the ECHAM4 and HadCM3 global climate models (after comparing them with the results of the GFDL-R30, CGCM2, and CSIRO-Mk2b models) and used simulations of a dune mobility index under IPCC SRES climate scenarios A1FI, A2a, A2b, A2c, B1a, B2a, and B2b to estimate future trends in dune activity and desertification in China. Although uncertainties in climate predictions mean that there is still far to go before we can develop a comprehensive dune activity estimation system, HadCM3 simulations with most greenhouse forcing scenarios showed decreased desertification in most western region of arid and semiarid China by 2039, but increased desertification thereafter, whereas ECHAM4 simulation results showed that desertification will increase during this period. Inhabitants of thecentral region will benefit from reversed desertification from 2010 to 2099, whereas inhabitants of the eastern region will suffer from increased desertification from 2010 to 2099. From 2010 to 2039, most regions will not be significantly affected by desertification, but from 2040 to 2099, the environments of the western and eastern regions will deteriorate due to the significant effects of global warming (particularly the interaction between precipitation and potential evapotranspiration), leading to decreased livestock and grain yields and possibly threatening China's food security.

Revised mineral dust emissions in the atmospheric chemistry-climate model EMAC (MESSy 2.52 DU_Astitha1 KKDU2017 patch)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klingmüller, Klaus; Metzger, Swen; Abdelkader, Mohamed; Karydis, Vlassis A.; Stenchikov, Georgiy L.; Pozzer, Andrea; Lelieveld, Jos

2018-03-01

To improve the aeolian dust budget calculations with the global ECHAM/MESSy atmospheric chemistry-climate model (EMAC), which combines the Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy) with the ECMWF/Hamburg (ECHAM) climate model developed at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg based on a weather prediction model of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), we have implemented new input data and updates of the emission scheme.The data set comprises land cover classification, vegetation, clay fraction and topography. It is based on up-to-date observations, which are crucial to account for the rapid changes of deserts and semi-arid regions in recent decades. The new Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)-based land cover and vegetation data are time dependent, and the effect of long-term trends and variability of the relevant parameters is therefore considered by the emission scheme. All input data have a spatial resolution of at least 0.1° compared to 1° in the previous version, equipping the model for high-resolution simulations.We validate the updates by comparing the aerosol optical depth (AOD) at 550 nm wavelength from a 1-year simulation at T106 (about 1.1°) resolution with Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) and MODIS observations, the 10 µm dust AOD (DAOD) with Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) retrievals, and dust concentration and deposition results with observations from the Aerosol Comparisons between Observations and Models (AeroCom) dust benchmark data set. The update significantly improves agreement with the observations and is therefore recommended to be used in future simulations.

Statistical downscaling of sub-daily (6-hour) temperature in Romania, by means of artificial neural networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Birsan, Marius-Victor; Dumitrescu, Alexandru; Cǎrbunaru, Felicia

2016-04-01

The role of statistical downscaling is to model the relationship between large-scale atmospheric circulation and climatic variables on a regional and sub-regional scale, making use of the predictions of future circulation generated by General Circulation Models (GCMs) in order to capture the effects of climate change on smaller areas. The study presents a statistical downscaling model based on a neural network-based approach, by means of multi-layer perceptron networks. Sub-daily temperature data series from 81 meteorological stations over Romania, with full data records are used as predictands. As large-scale predictor, the NCEP/NCAD air temperature data at 850 hPa over the domain 20-30E / 40-50N was used, at a spatial resolution of 2.5×2.5 degrees. The period 1961-1990 was used for calibration, while the validation was realized over the 1991-2010 interval. Further, in order to estimate future changes in air temperature for 2021-2050 and 2071-2100, air temperature data at 850 hPa corresponding to the IPCC A1B scenario was extracted from the CNCM33 model (Meteo-France) and used as predictor. This work has been realized within the research project "Changes in climate extremes and associated impact in hydrological events in Romania" (CLIMHYDEX), code PN II-ID-2011-2-0073, financed by the Romanian Executive Agency for Higher Education Research, Development and Innovation Funding (UEFISCDI).

An analysis of the synoptic and climatological applicability of circulation type classifications for Ireland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Broderick, Ciaran; Fealy, Rowan

2013-04-01

Circulation type classifications (CTCs) compiled as part of the COST733 Action, entitled 'Harmonisation and Application of Weather Type Classifications for European Regions', are examined for their synoptic and climatological applicability to Ireland based on their ability to characterise surface temperature and precipitation. In all 16 different objective classification schemes, representative of four different methodological approaches to circulation typing (optimization algorithms, threshold based methods, eigenvector techniques and leader algorithms) are considered. Several statistical metrics which variously quantify the ability of CTCs to discretize daily data into well-defined homogeneous groups are used to evaluate and compare different approaches to synoptic typing. The records from 14 meteorological stations located across the island of Ireland are used in the study. The results indicate that while it was not possible to identify a single optimum classification or approach to circulation typing - conditional on the location and surface variables considered - a number of general assertions regarding the performance of different schemes can be made. The findings for surface temperature indicate that that those classifications based on predefined thresholds (e.g. Litynski, GrossWetterTypes and original Lamb Weather Type) perform well, as do the Kruizinga and Lund classification schemes. Similarly for precipitation predefined type classifications return high skill scores, as do those classifications derived using some optimization procedure (e.g. SANDRA, Self Organizing Maps and K-Means clustering). For both temperature and precipitation the results generally indicate that the classifications perform best for the winter season - reflecting the closer coupling between large-scale circulation and surface conditions during this period. In contrast to the findings for temperature, spatial patterns in the performance of classifications were more evident for precipitation. In the case of this variable those more westerly synoptic stations open to zonal airflow and less influenced by regional scale forcings generally exhibited a stronger link with large-scale circulation.

General Circulation Model Simulations of the Annual Cycle of Martian Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilson, R.; Richardson, M.; Rodin, A.

Observations of the martian atmosphere have revealed a strong annual modulation of global mean atmospheric temperature that has been attributed to the pronounced seasonal asymmetry in solar radiation and the highly variable distribution of aerosol. These observations indicate little interannual variability during the relatively cool aphelion season and considerable variability in the perihelion season that is associated with the episodic occurrence of regional and major dust storms. The atmospheric circulation responds to the evolving spatial distribution of aerosol-induced heating and, in turn, plays a major role in determining the sources, sinks, and transport of radiatively active aerosol. We will present simulations employing the GFDL Mars General Circulation Model (MGCM) that show that aspects of the seasonally evolving climate may be simulated in a self-consistent manner using simple dust source parameterizations that represent the effects of lifting associated with local dust storms, dust devil activity, and other processes. Aerosol transport is accomplished, in large part, by elements of the large-scale circulation such as the Hadley circulation, baroclinic storms, tides, etc. A seasonal cycle of atmospheric opacity and temperature results from the variation in the strength and distribution of dust sources as well as from seasonal variations in the efficiency of atmospheric transport associated with changes in the circulation between solstice and equinox, and between perihelion and aphelion. We examine the efficiency of atmospheric transport of dust lifted along the perimeter of the polar caps to gauge the influence of these storms on the global circulation. We also consider the influence of water, as the formation of water ice clouds on dust nuclei may also affect the vertical distribution of dust and strongly influence the aerosol radiative properties.

Numerical modeling of general circulation, thermohaline structure, and residence time in Gorgan Bay, Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ranjbar, Mohammad Hassan; Hadjizadeh Zaker, Nasser

2018-01-01

Gorgan Bay is a semi-enclosed basin located in the southeast of the Caspian Sea, Iran. The bay is recognized as a resting place for migratory birds as well as a spawning habitat for native fish. However, apparently, no detailed research on its physical processes has previously been conducted. In this study, a 3D coupled hydrodynamic and solute transport model was used to investigate general circulation, thermohaline structure, and residence time in Gorgan Bay. Model outputs were validated against a set of field observations. Bottom friction and attenuation coefficient of light intensity were tuned in order to achieve optimum agreement with the observations. Results revealed that, due to the interaction between bathymetry and prevailing winds, a barotropic double-gyre circulation, dominating the general circulation, existed during all seasons in Gorgan Bay. Furthermore, temperature and salinity fluctuations in the bay were seasonal, due to the seasonal variability of atmospheric fluxes. Results also indicated that under the prevailing winds, the domain-averaged residence time in Gorgan Bay would be approximately 95 days. The rivers discharging into Gorgan Bay are considered as the main sources of nutrients in the bay. Since their mouths are located in the area with a residence time of over 100 days, Gorgan Bay could be at risk of eutrophication; it is necessary to adopt preventive measures against water quality degradation.

Locally Downscaled and Spatially Customizable Climate Data for Historical and Future Periods for North America

PubMed Central

Wang, Tongli; Hamann, Andreas; Spittlehouse, Dave; Carroll, Carlos

2016-01-01

Large volumes of gridded climate data have become available in recent years including interpolated historical data from weather stations and future predictions from general circulation models. These datasets, however, are at various spatial resolutions that need to be converted to scales meaningful for applications such as climate change risk and impact assessments or sample-based ecological research. Extracting climate data for specific locations from large datasets is not a trivial task and typically requires advanced GIS and data management skills. In this study, we developed a software package, ClimateNA, that facilitates this task and provides a user-friendly interface suitable for resource managers and decision makers as well as scientists. The software locally downscales historical and future monthly climate data layers into scale-free point estimates of climate values for the entire North American continent. The software also calculates a large number of biologically relevant climate variables that are usually derived from daily weather data. ClimateNA covers 1) 104 years of historical data (1901–2014) in monthly, annual, decadal and 30-year time steps; 2) three paleoclimatic periods (Last Glacial Maximum, Mid Holocene and Last Millennium); 3) three future periods (2020s, 2050s and 2080s); and 4) annual time-series of model projections for 2011–2100. Multiple general circulation models (GCMs) were included for both paleo and future periods, and two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and 8.5) were chosen for future climate data. PMID:27275583

Locally Downscaled and Spatially Customizable Climate Data for Historical and Future Periods for North America.

PubMed

Wang, Tongli; Hamann, Andreas; Spittlehouse, Dave; Carroll, Carlos

2016-01-01

Large volumes of gridded climate data have become available in recent years including interpolated historical data from weather stations and future predictions from general circulation models. These datasets, however, are at various spatial resolutions that need to be converted to scales meaningful for applications such as climate change risk and impact assessments or sample-based ecological research. Extracting climate data for specific locations from large datasets is not a trivial task and typically requires advanced GIS and data management skills. In this study, we developed a software package, ClimateNA, that facilitates this task and provides a user-friendly interface suitable for resource managers and decision makers as well as scientists. The software locally downscales historical and future monthly climate data layers into scale-free point estimates of climate values for the entire North American continent. The software also calculates a large number of biologically relevant climate variables that are usually derived from daily weather data. ClimateNA covers 1) 104 years of historical data (1901-2014) in monthly, annual, decadal and 30-year time steps; 2) three paleoclimatic periods (Last Glacial Maximum, Mid Holocene and Last Millennium); 3) three future periods (2020s, 2050s and 2080s); and 4) annual time-series of model projections for 2011-2100. Multiple general circulation models (GCMs) were included for both paleo and future periods, and two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and 8.5) were chosen for future climate data.

Seasonal Overturning Circulation in the Red Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yao, F.; Hoteit, I.; Koehl, A.

2010-12-01

The Red Sea exhibits a distinct seasonal overturning circulation. In winter, a typical two-layer exchange structure, with a fresher inflow from the Gulf of Aden on top of an outflow from the Red Sea, is established. In summer months (June to September) this circulation pattern is changed to a three-layer structure: a surface outflow from the Red Sea on top of a subsurface intrusion of the Gulf of Aden Intermediate Water and a weakened deep outflow. This seasonal variability is studied using a general circulation model, MITgcm, with 6 hourly NCEP atmospheric forcing. The model is able to reproduce the observed seasonal variability very well. The forcing mechanisms of the seasonal variability related to seasonal surface wind stress and buoyancy flux, and water mass transformation processes associated with the seasonal overturning circulation are analyzed and presented.

On the role of tropopause folds in summertime tropospheric ozone over the eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akritidis, Dimitris; Pozzer, Andrea; Zanis, Prodromos; Tyrlis, Evangelos; Škerlak, Bojan; Sprenger, Michael; Lelieveld, Jos

2016-11-01

We study the contribution of tropopause folds in the summertime pool of tropospheric ozone over the eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East (EMME) with the aid of the ECHAM5/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) model. Tropopause fold events in EMAC simulations were identified with a 3-D labeling algorithm that detects folds at grid points where multiple crossings of the dynamical tropopause are computed. Subsequently the events featuring the largest horizontal and vertical extent were selected for further study. For the selection of these events we identified a significant contribution of the stratospheric ozone reservoir to the high concentrations of ozone in the middle and lower free troposphere over the EMME. A distinct increase of ozone is found over the EMME in the middle troposphere during summer as a result of the fold activity, shifting towards the southeast and decreasing altitude. We find that the interannual variability of near-surface ozone over the eastern Mediterranean (EM) during summer is related to that of both tropopause folds and ozone in the free troposphere.

An improved ice cloud formation parameterization in the EMAC model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bacer, Sara; Pozzer, Andrea; Karydis, Vlassis; Tsimpidi, Alexandra; Tost, Holger; Sullivan, Sylvia; Nenes, Athanasios; Barahona, Donifan; Lelieveld, Jos

2017-04-01

Cirrus clouds cover about 30% of the Earth's surface and are an important modulator of the radiative energy budget of the atmosphere. Despite their importance in the global climate system, there are still large uncertainties in understanding the microphysical properties and interactions with aerosols. Ice crystal formation is quite complex and a variety of mechanisms exists for ice nucleation, depending on aerosol characteristics and environmental conditions. Ice crystals can be formed via homogeneous nucleation or heterogeneous nucleation of ice-nucleating particles in different ways (contact, immersion, condensation, deposition). We have implemented the computationally efficient cirrus cloud formation parameterization by Barahona and Nenes (2009) into the EMAC (ECHAM5/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry) model in order to improve the representation of ice clouds and aerosol-cloud interactions. The parameterization computes the ice crystal number concentration from precursor aerosols and ice-nucleating particles accounting for the competition between homogeneous and heterogeneous nucleation and among different freezing modes. Our work shows the differences and the improvements obtained after the implementation with respect to the previous version of EMAC.

Understanding scale dependency of climatic processes with diarrheal disease

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nasr Azadani, F.; Jutla, A.; Akanda, A. S. S.; Colwell, R. R.

2015-12-01

The issue of scales in linking climatic processes with diarrheal diseases is perhaps one of the most challenging aspect to develop any predictive algorithm for outbreaks and to understand impacts of changing climate. Majority of diarrheal diseases have shown to be strongly associated with climate modulated environmental processes where pathogens survive. Using cholera as an example of characteristic diarrheal diseases, this study will provide methodological insights on dominant scale variability in climatic processes that are linked with trigger and transmission of disease. Cholera based epidemiological models use human to human interaction as a main transmission mechanism, however, environmental conditions for creating seasonality in outbreaks is not explicitly modeled. For example, existing models cannot create seasonality, unless some of the model parameters are a-priori chosen to vary seasonally. A systems based feedback approach will be presented to understand role of climatic processes on trigger and transmission disease. In order to investigate effect of changing climate on cholera, a downscaling approach using support vector machine will be used. Our preliminary results using three climate models, ECHAM5, GFDL, and HADCM show that varying modalities in future cholera outbreaks.

Rainfall-aerosol relationships explained by wet scavenging and humidity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grandey, Benjamin S.; Gururaj, Anisha; Stier, Philip; Wagner, Till M.

2014-08-01

Relationships between precipitation rate and aerosol optical depth, the extinction of light by aerosol in an atmospheric column, have been observed in satellite-retrieved data. What are the reasons for these precipitation-aerosol relationships? We investigate relationships between convective precipitation rate (Rconv) and aerosol optical depth (τtot) using the ECHAM5-HAM aerosol-climate model. We show that negative Rconv-τtot relationships arise due to wet scavenging of aerosol. The apparent lack of negative Rconv-τtot relationships in satellite-retrieved data is likely because the satellite data do not sample wet scavenging events. When convective wet scavenging is excluded in the model, we find positive Rconv-τtot relationships in regions where convective precipitation is the dominant form of model precipitation. The spatial distribution of these relationships is in good agreement with satellite-based results. We further demonstrate that a substantial component of these positive relationships arises due to covariation with large-scale relative humidity. Although the interpretation of precipitation-aerosol relationships remains a challenging question, we suggest that progress can be made through a synergy between observations and models.

AOD trends during 2001-2010 from observations and model simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pozzer, A.; de Meij, A.; Yoon, J.; Tost, H.; Georgoulias, A. K.; Astitha, M.

2015-05-01

The aerosol optical depth (AOD) trend between 2001 and 2010 is estimated globally and regionally from observations and results from simulations with the EMAC (ECHAM5/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry) model. Although interannual variability is applied only to anthropogenic and biomass-burning emissions, the model is able to quantitatively reproduce the AOD trends as observed by the MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) satellite sensor, while some discrepancies are found when compared to MISR (Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer) and SeaWIFS (Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor) observations. Thanks to an additional simulation without any change in emissions, it is shown that decreasing AOD trends over the US and Europe are due to the decrease in the emissions, while over the Sahara Desert and the Middle East region, the meteorological changes play a major role. Over Southeast Asia, both meteorology and emissions changes are equally important in defining AOD trends. Additionally, decomposing the regional AOD trends into individual aerosol components reveals that the soluble components are the most dominant contributors to the total AOD, as their influence on the total AOD is enhanced by the aerosol water content.

Estimating the uncertainty of the impact of climate change on alluvial aquifers. Case study in central Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Romano, Emanuele; Camici, Stefania; Brocca, Luca; Moramarco, Tommaso; Pica, Federico; Preziosi, Elisabetta

2014-05-01

There is evidence that the precipitation pattern in Europe is trending towards more humid conditions in the northern region and drier conditions in the southern and central-eastern regions. However, a great deal of uncertainty concerns how the changes in precipitations will have an impact on water resources, particularly on groundwater, and this uncertainty should be evaluated on the basis of that coming from 1) future climate scenarios of Global Circulation Models (GCMs) and 2) modeling chains including the downscaling technique, the infiltration model and the calibration/validation procedure used to develop the groundwater flow model. With the aim of quantifying the uncertainty of these components, the Valle Umbra porous aquifer (Central Italy) has been considered as a case study. This aquifer, that is exploited for human consumption and irrigation, is mainly fed by the effective infiltration from the ground surface and partly by the inflow from the carbonate aquifers bordering the valley. A numerical groundwater flow model has been developed through the finite difference MODFLOW2005 code and it has been calibrated and validated considering the recharge regime computed through a Thornthwaite-Mather infiltration model under the climate conditions observed in the period 1956-2012. Future scenarios (2010-2070) of temperature and precipitation have been obtained from three different GMCs: ECHAM-5 (Max Planck Institute, Germany), PCM (National Centre Atmospheric Research) and CCSM3 (National Centre Atmospheric Research). Each scenario has been downscaled (DSC) to the data of temperature and precipitation collected in the baseline period 1960-1990 at the stations located in the study area through two different statistical techniques (linear rescaling and quantile mapping). Then, stochastic rainfall and temperature time series are generated through the Neyman-Scott Rectangular Pulses model (NSRP) for precipitation and the Fractionally Differenced ARIMA model (FARIMA) for temperature. Such a procedure has allowed to estimate, through the Thornthwaite-Mather model, the uncertainty related to the future scenarios of recharge to the aquifer. Finally, all the scenarios of recharge have been used as input to the groundwater flow model and the results have been evaluated in terms of the uncertainty on the computed aquifer heads and total budget. The main results have indicated that most of the uncertainty on the impact to the aquifer arise from the uncertainty on the first part of the processing chain GCM-DSC.

Seasonal and Interannual Variability of Eddy Field and Surface Circulation in the Gulf of Aden

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Al Saafani, M. A.; Shenoi, S. S. C.

2006-07-01

The circulation in the Gulf of Aden is inferred from three different data sets: h istorical sh ip drifts , hydrography , and satellite altimeter derived sea level (Topex/Poseidon, Jason and ERS) . The circulation in th is semi-enclosed basin is marked with strong seasonality with reversals in the direction of flows twice a year follow ing the reversal in mon soonal winds. During the win ter mon soon (November - February) there is an inflow from Arabian Sea; an extension of Arabian Coastal Current (ACC) . During sou thwest mon soon (June - August) the flow is generally towards east especially along the northern coast of Gulf of Aden. The geostrophic currents also show that the circulation in the gulf is embedded with mesoscale eddies. These westward propagating eddies appear to enter the Gulf of Aden from the western Arabian Sea in win ter. The relative contribu tion of mesoscale eddies to the circulation in the gulf were estimated using altimeter derived Sea level anomaly (SLA) for the years 1993 to 2003 . The effect of these mesoscale eddies extend over the entire water colu mn . The propagation speeds, of these eddies, estimated using weekly spaced altimeter derived SLA (2002 - 2003) is ~ 4 .0 - 5 .3 cm s . The sum of the speeds of second mode Ro ssby wave and the mean current (4.8 cm s ) matches with the propagation speeds of eddies estimated using SLA . Hence, second mode baroclin ic Rossby waves appear to be responsib le for the westward propagation of eddies in the Gulf of Aden. The presence of these eddies in the temperaturesalin ity climato logy confirms that they are no t transient features.

Orbital, tectonic and oceanographic controls on Pliocene climate and atmospheric circulation in Arctic Norway

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Panitz, Sina; Salzmann, Ulrich; Risebrobakken, Bjørg; De Schepper, Stijn; Pound, Matthew J.; Haywood, Alan M.; Dolan, Aisling M.; Lunt, Daniel J.

2018-02-01

During the Pliocene Epoch, a stronger-than-present overturning circulation has been invoked to explain the enhanced warming in the Nordic Seas region in comparison to low to mid-latitude regions. While marine records are indicative of changes in the northward heat transport via the North Atlantic Current (NAC) during the Pliocene, the long-term terrestrial climate evolution and its driving mechanisms are poorly understood. We present the first two-million-year-long Pliocene pollen record for the Nordic Seas region from Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Hole 642B, reflecting vegetation and climate in Arctic Norway, to assess the influence of oceanographic and atmospheric controls on Pliocene climate evolution. The vegetation record reveals a long-term cooling trend in northern Norway, which might be linked to a general decline in atmospheric CO2 concentrations over the studied interval, and climate oscillations primarily controlled by precession (23 kyr), obliquity (54 kyr) and eccentricity (100 kyr) forcing. In addition, the record identifies four major shifts in Pliocene vegetation and climate mainly controlled by changes in northward heat transport via the NAC. Cool temperate (warmer than present) conditions prevailed between 5.03-4.30 Ma, 3.90-3.47 Ma and 3.29-3.16 Ma and boreal (similar to present) conditions predominated between 4.30-3.90 Ma, 3.47-3.29 and after 3.16 Ma. A distinct decline in sediment and pollen accumulation rates at c. 4.65 Ma is probably linked to changes in ocean currents, marine productivity and atmospheric circulation. Climate model simulations suggest that changes in the strength of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation during the Early Pliocene could have affected atmospheric circulation in the Nordic Seas region, which would have affected the direction of pollen transport from Scandinavia to ODP Hole 642B.

Seasonal cycle of circulation in the Antarctic Peninsula and the off-shelf transport of shelf waters into southern Drake Passage and Scotia Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Mingshun; Charette, Matthew A.; Measures, Christopher I.; Zhu, Yiwu; Zhou, Meng

2013-06-01

The seasonal cycle of circulation and transport in the Antarctic Peninsula shelf region is investigated using a high-resolution (˜2 km) regional model based on the Regional Oceanic Modeling System (ROMS). The model also includes a naturally occurring tracer with a strong source over the shelf (radium isotope 228Ra, t1/2=5.8 years) to investigate the sediment Fe input and its transport. The model is spun-up for three years using climatological boundary and surface forcing and then run for the 2004-2006 period using realistic forcing. Model results suggest a persistent and coherent circulation system throughout the year consisting of several major components that converge water masses from various sources toward Elephant Island. These currents are largely in geostrophic balance, driven by surface winds, topographic steering, and large-scale forcing. Strong off-shelf transport of the Fe-rich shelf waters takes place over the northeastern shelf/slope of Elephant Island, driven by a combination of topographic steering, extension of shelf currents, and strong horizontal mixing between the ACC and shelf waters. These results are generally consistent with recent and historical observational studies. Both the shelf circulation and off-shelf transport show a significant seasonality, mainly due to the seasonal changes of surface winds and large-scale circulation. Modeled and observed distributions of 228Ra suggest that a majority of Fe-rich upper layer waters exported off-shelf around Elephant Island are carried by the shelfbreak current and the Bransfield Strait Current from the shallow sills between Gerlache Strait and Livingston Island, and northern shelf of the South Shetland Islands, where strong winter mixing supplies much of the sediment derived nutrients (including Fe) input to the surface layer.

Decision Support Tool Evaluation Report for General NOAA Oil Modeling Environment(GNOME) Version 2.0

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Spruce, Joseph P.; Hall, Callie; Zanoni, Vicki; Blonski, Slawomir; D'Sa, Eurico; Estep, Lee; Holland, Donald; Moore, Roxzana F.; Pagnutti, Mary; Terrie, Gregory

2004-01-01

NASA's Earth Science Applications Directorate evaluated the potential of NASA remote sensing data and modeling products to enhance the General NOAA Oil Modeling Environment (GNOME) decision support tool. NOAA's Office of Response and Restoration (OR&R) Hazardous Materials (HAZMAT) Response Division is interested in enhancing GNOME with near-realtime (NRT) NASA remote sensing products on oceanic winds and ocean circulation. The NASA SeaWinds sea surface wind and Jason-1 sea surface height NRT products have potential, as do sea surface temperature and reflectance products from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer and sea surface reflectance products from Landsat and the Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflectance Radiometer. HAZMAT is also interested in the Advanced Circulation model and the Ocean General Circulation Model. Certain issues must be considered, including lack of data continuity, marginal data redundancy, and data formatting problems. Spatial resolution is an issue for near-shore GNOME applications. Additional work will be needed to incorporate NASA inputs into GNOME, including verification and validation of data products, algorithms, models, and NRT data.

Effect of Vortex Circulation on Injectant from a Single Film-Cooling Hole and a Row of Film-Cooling Holes in a Turbulent Boundary Layer. Part 1. Injection Beneath the Vortex Downwash

DTIC Science & Technology

1989-06-01

coefficients vortex circulation, symbols used in vorticity plots representing circulation values derived from different vortex core models injection...derived from different vortex core models dimensionless core size parameter: t wice the a verage core radius divided by t h e i n jection hole...Wall Heating, xjd=109.2, m=0.5, Single Injection Hole Vortex w, Temp. Difference Range (.5- 2.5) degree s 91. Local Temperature Distribution

The influence of orography on modern ocean circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maffre, Pierre; Ladant, Jean-Baptiste; Donnadieu, Yannick; Sepulchre, Pierre; Goddéris, Yves

2018-02-01

The effects of orography on climate are investigated with a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model (IPSL-CM5). Results are compared with previous investigations in order to dig out robust consequences of the lack of orography on the global scale. Emphasis is made on the thermohaline circulation whose sensitivity to orography has only been subject to a very limited number of studies using coupled models. The removal of the entire orography switches the Meridional Overturning Circulation from the Atlantic to the Pacific, following freshwater transfers from the latter to the former that reverse the salinity gradient between these oceans. This is in part due to the increased freshwater export from the Pacific to the Atlantic through North America in the absence of the Rocky Mountains and the consecutive decreased evaporation in the North Atlantic once the Atlantic MOC weakens, which cools the northern high-latitudes. In addition and unlike previous model studies, we find that tropical freshwater transfers are a major driver of this switch. More precisely, the collapse of the Asian summer monsoon, associated with westward freshwater transfer across Africa, is critical to the freshening of the Atlantic and the increased salt content in the Pacific. Specifically, precipitations are increasing over the Congo catchment area and induce a strong increase in runoff discharging into the tropical Atlantic. In addition, the removal of the Andes shifts the area of strong precipitation toward the Amazonian catchment area and results in a larger runoff discharging into the Tropical Atlantic.

Combined determination of circulating miR-196a and miR-196b levels produces high sensitivity and specificity for early detection of oral cancer.

PubMed

Lu, Ya-Ching; Chang, Joseph Tung-Chieh; Huang, Yu-Chen; Huang, Chi-Che; Chen, Wen-Ho; Lee, Li-Yu; Huang, Bing-Shen; Chen, Yin-Ju; Li, Hsiao-Fang; Cheng, Ann-Joy

2015-02-01

The aim of this study was to determine whether the oncogenic microRNA family members miR-196a and miR-196b can be circulating biomarkers for the early detection of oral cancer. To determine the stability of circulating miRNA, the blood sample was aliquot and stored at different temperature conditions for analysis. To assess the diagnostic efficacy, we determined the levels of miR-196s in plasma samples, including 53 from healthy individuals, 16 from pre-cancer patients, and 90 from oral cancer patients. In general, circulating miRNA was very stable when storing plasma samples at -20°C or below. In clinical study, both circulating miR-196a and miR-196b were substantially up-regulated in patients with oral pre-cancer lesions (5.9- and 14.8-fold, respectively; P < 0.01), as well as in oral cancer patients (9.3- and 17.0-fold, respectively; P < 0.01). These results show prominent discrimination between normal and pre-cancer patients (AUC = 0.764 or 0.840, miR-196a or miR-196b, respectively), and between normal and cancer patients (AUC = 0.864 or 0.960, miR-196a or miR-196b, respectively). The combined determination of miR-196a and miR-196b levels produces excellent sensitivity and specificity in the diagnosis of patients with oral pre-cancer (AUC = 0.845) or oral cancer (AUC = 0.963), as well as in the prediction of potential malignancy (AUC = 0.950, sensitivity = 91%, specificity = 85%). Combined determination of circulating miR-196a and miR-196b levels may serve as panel plasma biomarkers for the early detection of oral cancer. Copyright © 2014 The Canadian Society of Clinical Chemists. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Tidal flushing and wind driven circulation of Ahe atoll lagoon (Tuamotu Archipelago, French Polynesia) from in situ observations and numerical modelling.

PubMed

Dumas, F; Le Gendre, R; Thomas, Y; Andréfouët, S

2012-01-01

Hydrodynamic functioning and water circulation of the semi-closed deep lagoon of Ahe atoll (Tuamotu Archipelago, French Polynesia) were investigated using 1 year of field data and a 3D hydrodynamical model. Tidal amplitude averaged less than 30 cm, but tide generated very strong currents (2 ms(-1)) in the pass, creating a jet-like circulation that partitioned the lagoon into three residual circulation cells. The pass entirely flushed excess water brought by waves-induced radiation stress. Circulation patterns were computed for climatological meteorological conditions and summarized with stream function and flushing time. Lagoon hydrodynamics and general overturning circulation was driven by wind. Renewal time was 250 days, whereas the e-flushing time yielded a lagoon-wide 80-days average. Tide-driven flush through the pass and wind-driven overturning circulation designate Ahe as a wind-driven, tidally and weakly wave-flushed deep lagoon. The 3D model allows studying pearl oyster larvae dispersal in both realistic and climatological conditions for aquaculture applications. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estimation of the climate change impact on a catchment water balance using an ensemble of GCMs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reshmidevi, T. V.; Nagesh Kumar, D.; Mehrotra, R.; Sharma, A.

2018-01-01

This work evaluates the impact of climate change on the water balance of a catchment in India. Rainfall and hydro-meteorological variables for current (20C3M scenario, 1981-2000) and two future time periods: mid of the 21st century (2046-2065) and end of the century (2081-2100) are simulated using Modified Markov Model-Kernel Density Estimation (MMM-KDE) and k-nearest neighbor downscaling models. Climate projections from an ensemble of 5 GCMs (MPI-ECHAM5, BCCR-BCM2.0, CSIRO-mk3.5, IPSL-CM4, and MRI-CGCM2) are used in this study. Hydrologic simulations for the current as well as future climate scenarios are carried out using Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) integrated with ArcGIS (ArcSWAT v.2009). The results show marginal reduction in runoff ratio, annual streamflow and groundwater recharge towards the end of the century. Increased temperature and evapotranspiration project an increase in the irrigation demand towards the end of the century. Rainfall projections for the future shows marginal increase in the annual average rainfall. Short and moderate wet spells are projected to decrease, whereas short and moderate dry spells are projected to increase in the future. Projected reduction in streamflow and groundwater recharge along with the increase in irrigation demand is likely to aggravate the water stress in the region under the future scenario.

Circulating metabolite predictors of glycemia in middle-aged men and women.

PubMed

Würtz, Peter; Tiainen, Mika; Mäkinen, Ville-Petteri; Kangas, Antti J; Soininen, Pasi; Saltevo, Juha; Keinänen-Kiukaanniemi, Sirkka; Mäntyselkä, Pekka; Lehtimäki, Terho; Laakso, Markku; Jula, Antti; Kähönen, Mika; Vanhala, Mauno; Ala-Korpela, Mika

2012-08-01

Metabolite predictors of deteriorating glucose tolerance may elucidate the pathogenesis of type 2 diabetes. We investigated associations of circulating metabolites from high-throughput profiling with fasting and postload glycemia cross-sectionally and prospectively on the population level. Oral glucose tolerance was assessed in two Finnish, population-based studies consisting of 1,873 individuals (mean age 52 years, 58% women) and reexamined after 6.5 years for 618 individuals in one of the cohorts. Metabolites were quantified by nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy from fasting serum samples. Associations were studied by linear regression models adjusted for established risk factors. Nineteen circulating metabolites, including amino acids, gluconeogenic substrates, and fatty acid measures, were cross-sectionally associated with fasting and/or postload glucose (P < 0.001). Among these metabolic intermediates, branched-chain amino acids, phenylalanine, and α1-acid glycoprotein were predictors of both fasting and 2-h glucose at 6.5-year follow-up (P < 0.05), whereas alanine, lactate, pyruvate, and tyrosine were uniquely associated with 6.5-year postload glucose (P = 0.003-0.04). None of the fatty acid measures were prospectively associated with glycemia. Changes in fatty acid concentrations were associated with changes in fasting and postload glycemia during follow-up; however, changes in branched-chain amino acids did not follow glucose dynamics, and gluconeogenic substrates only paralleled changes in fasting glucose. Alterations in branched-chain and aromatic amino acid metabolism precede hyperglycemia in the general population. Further, alanine, lactate, and pyruvate were predictive of postchallenge glucose exclusively. These gluconeogenic precursors are potential markers of long-term impaired insulin sensitivity that may relate to attenuated glucose tolerance later in life.

Global ionospheric and thermospheric response to the 5 April 2010 geomagnetic storm: An integrated data-model investigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, G.; Hagan, M. E.; Häusler, K.; Doornbos, E.; Bruinsma, S.; Anderson, B. J.; Korth, H.

2014-12-01

We present a case study of the 5 April 2010 geomagnetic storm using observations and numerical simulations. The event was driven by a fast-moving coronal mass ejection and despite being a moderate storm with a minimum Dst near -50 nT, the event exhibited elevated thermospheric density and surges of traveling atmospheric disturbances (TADs) more typically seen during major storms. The Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Mesosphere-Electrodynamics General Circulation Model (TIMEGCM) was used to assess how these features were generated and developed during the storm. The model simulations gave rise to TADs that were highly nonuniform with strong latitude and longitude/local time dependence. The TAD phase speeds ranged from 640 m/s to 780 m/s at 400 km and were ~5% lower at 300 km and approximately 10-15% lower at 200 km. In the lower thermosphere around 100 km, the TAD signatures were nearly unrecognizable due to much stronger influence of upward propagating atmospheric tides. The thermosphere simulation results were compared to observations available from the Gravity Field and Steady-State Ocean Circulation Explorer (GOCE), CHAllenging Minisatellite Payload (CHAMP) and Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites. Comparison with GOCE data shows that the TIMEGCM reproduced the cross-track winds over the polar region very well. The model-data comparison also revealed some differences, specifically, the simulations underestimated neutral mass density in the upper thermosphere above ~300 km and overestimated the storm recovery tome by 6 h. These discrepancies indicate that some heating or circulation dynamics and potentially cooling processes are not fully represented in the simulations, and also that updates to some parameterization schemes in the TIMEGCM are warranted.

Aneurysms of the anterior and posterior cerebral circulation: comparison of the morphometric features.

PubMed

Tykocki, Tomasz; Kostkiewicz, Bogusław

2014-09-01

Intracranial aneurysms (IAs) located in the posterior circulation are considered to have higher annual bleed rates than those in the anterior circulation. The aim of the study was to compare the morphometric factors differentiating between IAs located in the anterior and posterior cerebral circulation. A total number of 254 IAs diagnosed between 2009 and 2012 were retrospectively analyzed. All patients qualified for diagnostic, three-dimensional rotational angiography. IAs were assigned to either the anterior or posterior cerebral circulation subsets for the analysis. Means were compared with a t-test. The univariate and stepwise logistic regression analyses were used to determine the predictors of morphometric differences between the groups. For the defined predictors, ROC (receiver-operating characteristic) curves and interactive dot diagrams were calculated with the cutoff values of the morphometric factors. The number of anterior cerebral circulation IAs was 179 (70.5 %); 141 (55.5 %) aneurysms were ruptured. Significant differences between anterior and posterior circulation IAs were found for: the parent artery size (5.08 ± 1.8 mm vs. 3.95 ± 1.5 mm; p < 0.05), size ratio (2.22 ± 0.9 vs. 3.19 ± 1.8; p < 0.045) and aspect ratio (AR) (1.91 ± 0.8 vs. 2.75 ± 1.8; p = 0.02). Predicting factors differentiating anterior and posterior circulation IAs were: the AR (OR = 2.20; 95 % CI 1.80-270; Is 270 correct or should it be 2.70 and parent artery size (OR = 0.44; 95 % CI 0.38-0.54). The cutoff point in the ROC curve was 2.185 for the AR and 4.89 mm for parent artery size. Aspect ratio and parent artery size were found to be predictive morphometric factors in differentiating between anterior and posterior cerebral IAs.

Association of circulating ANGPTL 3, 4, and 8 levels with medical status in a population undergoing routine medical checkups: A cross-sectional study.

PubMed

Morinaga, Jun; Zhao, Jiabin; Endo, Motoyoshi; Kadomatsu, Tsuyoshi; Miyata, Keishi; Sugizaki, Taichi; Okadome, Yusuke; Tian, Zhe; Horiguchi, Haruki; Miyashita, Kazuya; Maruyama, Nobuhiro; Mukoyama, Masashi; Oike, Yuichi

2018-01-01

Angiopoietin-like proteins (ANGPTLs) 3, 4, and 8 reportedly contribute to progression of metabolic disease, a risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD). The purpose of this study was to investigate whether circulating ANGPTL levels are associated with CVD risk after adjustment for potential confounding factors. We conducted a single center, cross-sectional study of 988 Japanese subjects undergoing routine health checks. Serum ANGPTL3, 4, and 8 levels were measured using an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Using multiple regression analysis we evaluated potential association of circulating ANGPTL3, 4, and 8 levels with general medical status including age, sex, smoking, drinking, obesity, hypertension, impaired glycometabolism, dyslipidemia, hyperuricemia, hepatic impairment, chronic kidney disease, anemia, cardiac abnormality, and inflammation. Circulating ANGPTL3 levels were relatively high in health-related categories of hepatic impairment and inflammation. Circulating ANGPTL4 levels were also significantly high in impaired glycometabolism or hepatic impairment but decreased in inflammation. Finally, increased ANGPTL8 levels were observed in obesity, impaired glycometabolism and dyslipidemia. Particularly, increased levels of circulating ANGPTL8 were positively correlated with circulating triglycerides and LDL-cholesterol levels and inversely correlated with circulating HDL-cholesterol levels. Circulating ANGPTL3, 4, and 8 levels reflect some risk factors for CVD development.

A simple biosphere model (SiB) for use within general circulation models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sellers, P. J.; Mintz, Y.; Sud, Y. C.; Dalcher, A.

1986-01-01

A simple realistic biosphere model for calculating the transfer of energy, mass and momentum between the atmosphere and the vegetated surface of the earth has been developed for use in atmospheric general circulation models. The vegetation in each terrestrial model grid is represented by an upper level, representing the perennial canopy of trees and shrubs, and a lower level, representing the annual cover of grasses and other heraceous species. The vegetation morphology and the physical and physiological properties of the vegetation layers determine such properties as: the reflection, transmission, absorption and emission of direct and diffuse radiation; the infiltration, drainage, and storage of the residual rainfall in the soil; and the control over the stomatal functioning. The model, with prescribed vegetation parameters and soil interactive soil moisture, can be used for prediction of the atmospheric circulation and precipitaion fields for short periods of up to a few weeks.

Improved short-term variability in the thermosphere-ionosphere-mesosphere-electrodynamics general circulation model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Häusler, K.; Hagan, M. E.; Baumgaertner, A. J. G.; Maute, A.; Lu, G.; Doornbos, E.; Bruinsma, S.; Forbes, J. M.; Gasperini, F.

2014-08-01

We report on a new source of tidal variability in the National Center for Atmospheric Research thermosphere-ionosphere-mesosphere-electrodynamics general circulation model (TIME-GCM). Lower boundary forcing of the TIME-GCM for a simulation of November-December 2009 based on 3-hourly Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Application (MERRA) reanalysis data includes day-to-day variations in both diurnal and semidiurnal tides of tropospheric origin. Comparison with TIME-GCM results from a heretofore standard simulation that includes climatological tropospheric tides from the global-scale wave model reveal evidence of the impacts of MERRA forcing throughout the model domain, including measurable tidal variability in the TIME-GCM upper thermosphere. Additional comparisons with measurements made by the Gravity field and steady-state Ocean Circulation Explorer satellite show improved TIME-GCM capability to capture day-to-day variations in thermospheric density for the November-December 2009 period with the new MERRA lower boundary forcing.

Maintaining Atmospheric Mass and Water Balance Within Reanalysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Takacs, Lawrence L.; Suarez, Max; Todling, Ricardo

2015-01-01

This report describes the modifications implemented into the Goddard Earth Observing System Version-5 (GEOS-5) Atmospheric Data Assimilation System (ADAS) to maintain global conservation of dry atmospheric mass as well as to preserve the model balance of globally integrated precipitation and surface evaporation during reanalysis. Section 1 begins with a review of these global quantities from four current reanalysis efforts. Section 2 introduces the modifications necessary to preserve these constraints within the atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM), the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) analysis procedure, and the Incremental Analysis Update (IAU) algorithm. Section 3 presents experiments quantifying the impact of the new procedure. Section 4 shows preliminary results from its use within the GMAO MERRA-2 Reanalysis project. Section 5 concludes with a summary.

Pacific deep circulation and ventilation controlled by tidal mixing away from the sea bottom.

PubMed

Oka, Akira; Niwa, Yoshihiro

2013-01-01

Vertical mixing in the ocean is a key driver of the global ocean thermohaline circulation, one of the most important factors controlling past and future climate change. Prior observational and theoretical studies have focused on intense tidal mixing near the sea bottom (near-field mixing). However, ocean general circulation models that employ a parameterization of near-field mixing significantly underestimate the strength of the Pacific thermohaline circulation. Here we demonstrate that tidally induced mixing away from the sea bottom (far-field mixing) is essential in controlling the Pacific thermohaline circulation. Via the addition of far-field mixing to a widely used tidal parameterization, we successfully simulate the Pacific thermohaline circulation. We also propose that far-field mixing is indispensable for explaining the presence of the world ocean's oldest water in the eastern North Pacific Ocean. Our findings suggest that far-field mixing controls ventilation of the deep Pacific Ocean, a process important for ocean carbon and biogeochemical cycles.

Multiple states in the late Eocene ocean circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baatsen, M. L. J.; von der Heydt, A. S.; Kliphuis, M.; Viebahn, J.; Dijkstra, H. A.

2018-04-01

The Eocene-Oligocene Transition (EOT) marks a major step within the Cenozoic climate in going from a greenhouse into an icehouse state, with the formation of a continental-scale Antarctic ice sheet. The roles of steadily decreasing CO2 concentrations versus changes in ocean circulation at the EOT are still debated and the threshold for Antarctic glaciation is obscured by uncertainties in global geometry. Here, a detailed study of the late Eocene ocean circulation is carried out using an ocean general circulation model under two slightly different geography reconstructions of the middle-to-late Eocene (38 Ma). Using the same atmospheric forcing, both geographies give a profoundly different equilibrium ocean circulation state. The underlying reason for this sensitivity is the presence of multiple equilibria characterised by either North or South Pacific deep water formation. A possible shift from a southern towards a northern overturning circulation would result in significant changes in the global heat distribution and consequently make the Southern Hemisphere climate more susceptible for significant cooling and ice sheet formation on Antarctica.

Magnetic Flux Circulation During Dawn-Dusk Oriented Interplanetary Magnetic Field

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mitchell, E. J.; Lopez, R. E.; Fok, M.-C.; Deng, Y.; Wiltberger, M.; Lyon, J.

2010-01-01

Magnetic flux circulation is a primary mode of energy transfer from the solar wind into the ionosphere and inner magnetosphere. For southward interplanetary magnetic field (IMF), magnetic flux circulation is described by the Dungey cycle (dayside merging, night side reconnection, and magnetospheric convection), and both the ionosphere and inner magnetosphere receive energy. For dawn-dusk oriented IMF, magnetic flux circulation is not well understood, and the inner magnetosphere does not receive energy. Several models have been suggested for possible reconnection patterns; the general pattern is: dayside merging; reconnection on the dayside or along the dawn/dusk regions; and, return flow on dayside only. These models are consistent with the lack of energy in the inner magnetosphere. We will present evidence that the Dungey cycle does not explain the energy transfer during dawn-dusk oriented IMF. We will also present evidence of how magnetic flux does circulate during dawn-dusk oriented IMF, specifically how the magnetic flux reconnects and circulates back.

Implications of summertime marine stratocumulus on the North American climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Clark, John H. E.

1994-01-01

This study focuses on the effects of summertime stratocumulus over the eastern Pacific. This cloud is linked to the semi-permanent sub-tropical highs that dominate the low-level circulation over the Pacific and Atlantic. Subsidence on the eastern flank of these highs creates an inversion based about 800 m above sea level that caps moist air near the surface. This air overlies cool waters driven by upwelling along the coastal regions of North America. Strong surface north-westerlies mix the boundary layer enough to saturate the air just below the capping inversion. Widespread stratocumulus is thus formed. All calculations were carried out using the GENESIS general circulation model that was run at MSFC. Among the more important properties of the model is that it includes radiative forcing due to absorption of solar radiation and the emission of infrared radiation, interactive clouds (both stratocumulus and cumulus types), exchanges of heat and moisture with the lower boundary. Clouds are interactive in the sense that they impact the circulation by modifying the fields of radiative heating and turbulent fluxes of heat and moisture in the boundary layer. In turn, clouds are modified by the winds through the advection of moisture. In order to isolate the effects of mid- and high-latitude stratocumulus, two runs were made with the model: one with and the other without stratocumulus. The runs were made for a year, but with perpetual July conditions, i.e., solar forcing was fixed. The diurnal solar cycle, however, was allowed for. The sea surface temperature distribution was fixed in both runs to represent climatological July conditions. All dependent variables were represented at 12 surfaces of constant sigma = p/p(sub O), where p is pressure and p(sub O) is surface pressure. To facilitate analysis, model output was transformed to constant pressure surfaces. Structures no smaller in size than 7.5 degrees longitude and 4.5 degrees in latitude were resolved. Smaller features of the circulation were parameterized. The model thus captures synoptic- and planetary-scale circulation features.

Final Technical Report for DE-SC0005467

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Broccoli, Anthony J.

2014-09-14

The objective of this project is to gain a comprehensive understanding of the key atmospheric mechanisms and physical processes associated with temperature extremes in order to better interpret and constrain uncertainty in climate model simulations of future extreme temperatures. To achieve this objective, we first used climate observations and a reanalysis product to identify the key atmospheric circulation patterns associated with extreme temperature days over North America during the late twentieth century. We found that temperature extremes were associated with distinctive signatures in near-surface and mid-tropospheric circulation. The orientations and spatial scales of these circulation anomalies vary with latitude, season,more » and proximity to important geographic features such as mountains and coastlines. We next examined the associations between daily and monthly temperature extremes and large-scale, recurrent modes of climate variability, including the Pacific-North American (PNA) pattern, the northern annular mode (NAM), and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The strength of the associations are strongest with the PNA and NAM and weaker for ENSO, and also depend upon season, time scale, and location. The associations are stronger in winter than summer, stronger for monthly than daily extremes, and stronger in the vicinity of the centers of action of the PNA and NAM patterns. In the final stage of this project, we compared climate model simulations of the circulation patterns associated with extreme temperature days over North America with those obtained from observations. Using a variety of metrics and self-organizing maps, we found the multi-model ensemble and the majority of individual models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) generally capture the observed patterns well, including their strength and as well as variations with latitude and season. The results from this project indicate that current models are capable of simulating the large-scale meteorological patterns associated with daily temperature extremes and they suggest that such models can be used to evaluate the extent to which changes in atmospheric circulation will influence future changes in temperature extremes.« less

The annual cycle of pressure on Mars measured by Viking landers 1 and 2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hess, S. L.; Ryan, J. A.; Tillman, J. E.; Henry, R. M.; Leovy, C. B.

1980-01-01

Daily mean atmospheric pressures at the two Viking landers are presented for slightly more than a Martian year. The seasonal variation of pressure owing to exchange of CO2 with the polar caps is quite evident and contradicts, in part, earlier theoretical results. Day-to-day variations are the result of passage of synoptic-scale high and low pressure systems and are an important clue to the general circulation of the atmosphere. The effects of global dust storms on the general circulation and on the diurnal variation of pressure are detected and interpreted.

Computational design of the basic dynamical processes of the UCLA general circulation model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Arakawa, A.; Lamb, V. R.

1977-01-01

The 12-layer UCLA general circulation model encompassing troposphere and stratosphere (and superjacent 'sponge layer') is described. Prognostic variables are: surface pressure, horizontal velocity, temperature, water vapor and ozone in each layer, planetary boundary layer (PBL) depth, temperature, moisture and momentum discontinuities at PBL top, ground temperature and water storage, and mass of snow on ground. Selection of space finite-difference schemes for homogeneous incompressible flow, with/without a free surface, nonlinear two-dimensional nondivergent flow, enstrophy conserving schemes, momentum advection schemes, vertical and horizontal difference schemes, and time differencing schemes are discussed.

Circulating miR-423_5p fails as a biomarker for systemic ventricular function in adults after atrial repair for transposition of the great arteries.

PubMed

Tutarel, Oktay; Dangwal, Seema; Bretthauer, Julia; Westhoff-Bleck, Mechthild; Roentgen, Philipp; Anker, Stefan D; Bauersachs, Johann; Thum, Thomas

2013-07-15

Recently, the microRNA miR-423_5p was identified as a biomarker for left ventricular heart failure. Its role in patients with a systemic right ventricle and reduced ejection fraction after atrial repair for transposition of the great arteries has not been evaluated. In 41 patients and 10 age- and sex-matched healthy controls circulating miR-423_5p concentration was measured and correlated to clinical parameters, cardiac functional parameters assessed by magnetic resonance imaging, and cardiopulmonary exercise testing. Levels of circulating miR-423_5p showed no difference between patients and controls. Further, there was no correlation between miR-423_5p and parameters of cardiopulmonary exercise testing or imaging findings. In patients with a systemic right ventricle and reduced ejection fraction miR-423_5p levels are not elevated. Therefore, circulating miR-423_5p is not a useful biomarker for heart failure in this patient group. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Circulating tumour DNA and CT monitoring in patients with untreated diffuse large B-cell lymphoma: a correlative biomarker study.

PubMed

Roschewski, Mark; Dunleavy, Kieron; Pittaluga, Stefania; Moorhead, Martin; Pepin, Francois; Kong, Katherine; Shovlin, Margaret; Jaffe, Elaine S; Staudt, Louis M; Lai, Catherine; Steinberg, Seth M; Chen, Clara C; Zheng, Jianbiao; Willis, Thomas D; Faham, Malek; Wilson, Wyndham H

2015-05-01

Diffuse large-B-cell lymphoma is curable, but when treatment fails, outcome is poor. Although imaging can help to identify patients at risk of treatment failure, they are often imprecise, and radiation exposure is a potential health risk. We aimed to assess whether circulating tumour DNA encoding the clonal immunoglobulin gene sequence could be detected in the serum of patients with diffuse large-B-cell lymphoma and used to predict clinical disease recurrence after frontline treatment. We used next-generation DNA sequencing to retrospectively analyse cell-free circulating tumour DNA in patients assigned to one of three treatment protocols between May 8, 1993, and June 6, 2013. Eligible patients had diffuse large-B-cell lymphoma, no evidence of indolent lymphoma, and were previously untreated. We obtained serial serum samples and concurrent CT scans at specified times during most treatment cycles and up to 5 years of follow-up. VDJ gene segments of the rearranged immunoglobulin receptor genes were amplified and sequenced from pretreatment specimens and serum circulating tumour DNA encoding the VDJ rearrangements was quantitated. Tumour clonotypes were identified in pretreatment specimens from 126 patients who were followed up for a median of 11 years (IQR 6·8-14·2). Interim monitoring of circulating tumour DNA at the end of two treatment cycles in 108 patients showed a 5-year time to progression of 41·7% (95% CI 22·2-60·1) in patients with detectable circulating tumour DNA and 80·2% (69·6-87·3) in those without detectable circulating tumour DNA (p<0·0001). Detectable interim circulating tumour DNA had a positive predictive value of 62·5% (95% CI 40·6-81·2) and a negative predictive value of 79·8% (69·6-87·8). Surveillance monitoring of circulating tumour DNA was done in 107 patients who achieved complete remission. A Cox proportional hazards model showed that the hazard ratio for clinical disease progression was 228 (95% CI 51-1022) for patients who developed detectable circulating tumour DNA during surveillance compared with patients with undetectable circulating tumour DNA (p<0·0001). Surveillance circulating tumour DNA had a positive predictive value of 88·2% (95% CI 63·6-98·5) and a negative predictive value of 97·8% (92·2-99·7) and identified risk of recurrence at a median of 3·5 months (range 0-200) before evidence of clinical disease. Surveillance circulating tumour DNA identifies patients at risk of recurrence before clinical evidence of disease in most patients and results in a reduced disease burden at relapse. Interim circulating tumour DNA is a promising biomarker to identify patients at high risk of treatment failure. National Cancer Institute and Adaptive Biotechnologies. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Genetically elevated levels of circulating triglycerides and brachial-ankle pulse wave velocity in a Chinese population.

PubMed

Yao, W-M; Zhang, H-F; Zhu, Z-Y; Zhou, Y-L; Liang, N-X; Xu, D-J; Zhou, F; Sheng, Y-H; Yang, R; Gong, L; Yin, Z-J; Chen, F-K; Cao, K-J; Li, X-L

2013-04-01

Elevated levels of circulating triglycerides and increased arterial stiffness are associated with cardiovascular disease. Numerous studies have reported an association between levels of circulating triglycerides and arterial stiffness. We used Mendelian randomization to test whether this association is causal. We investigated the association between circulating triglyceride levels, the apolipoprotein A-V (ApoA5) -1131T>C single nucleotide polymorphism and brachial-ankle pulse wave velocity (baPWV) by examining data from 4421 subjects aged 18-74 years who were recruited from the Chinese population. baPWV was significantly associated with the levels of circulating triglycerides after adjusting for age, sex, body mass index (BMI), systolic blood pressure, heart rate, waist-to-hip ratio, antihypertensive treatment and diabetes mellitus status. The -1131C allele was associated with a 5% (95% confidence interval 3-8%) increase in circulating triglycerides (adjusted for age, sex, BMI, waist-to-hip ratio, diabetes mellitus and antihypertensive treatment). Instrumental variable analysis showed that genetically elevated levels of circulating triglycerides were not associated with increased baPWV. These results do not support the hypothesis that levels of circulating triglycerides have a causal role in the development of arterial stiffness.