When does ecological sustainability ensure economic sustainability? An integrated analysis of thresholds in semi-arid western rangelands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cobourn, K. M.; Peckham, S. D.

2011-12-01

The vulnerability of agri-environmental systems to ecological threshold events depends on the combined influence of economic factors and natural drivers, such as climate and disturbance. This analysis builds an integrated ecologic-economic model to evaluate the behavioral response of agricultural producers to changing and uncertain natural conditions. The model explicitly reflects the effect of producer behavior on the likelihood of a threshold event that threatens the ecological and/or economic sustainability of the agri-environmental system. The foundation of the analysis is a threshold indicator that incorporates the population dynamics of a species that supports economic production and an episodic disturbance regime-in this case rangeland grass that is grazed by livestock and is subject to wildfire. This ecological indicator is integrated into an economic model in which producers choose grazing intensity given the state of the grass population and a set of economic parameters. We examine two model variants that characterize differing economic circumstances. The first characterizes the optimal grazing regime assuming that the system is managed by a single planner whose objective is to maximize the aggregate long-run returns of producers in the system. The second examines the case in which individual producers choose their own stocking rates in order to maximize their private economic benefit. The results from the first model variant illustrate the difference between an ecologic and an economic threshold. Failure to cross an ecological threshold does not necessarily ensure that the system remains economically viable: Economic sustainability, defined as the ability of the system to support optimal production into the infinite future, requires that the net growth rate of the supporting population exceeds the level required for ecological sustainability by an amount that depends on the market price of livestock and grazing efficiency. The results from the second model variant define the circumstances under which a system that is otherwise ecologically sustainable is driven over a threshold by the actions of economic agents. The difference between the two model solutions identifies bounds between which the viability of livestock production over the long-run is uncertain and depends upon the policy setting in which the agri-environmental system operates.

Taking a systems approach to ecological systems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Grace, James B.

2015-01-01

Increasingly, there is interest in a systems-level understanding of ecological problems, which requires the evaluation of more complex, causal hypotheses. In this issue of the Journal of Vegetation Science, Soliveres et al. use structural equation modeling to test a causal network hypothesis about how tree canopies affect understorey communities. Historical analysis suggests structural equation modeling has been under-utilized in ecology.

Population modeling and its role in toxicological studies

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sauer, John R.; Pendleton, Grey W.; Hoffman, David J.; Rattner, Barnett A.; Burton, G. Allen; Cairns, John

1995-01-01

A model could be defined as any abstraction from reality that is used to provide some insight into the real system. In this discussion, we will use a more specific definition that a model is a set of rules or assumptions, expressed as mathematical equations, that describe how animals survive and reproduce, including the external factors that affect these characteristics. A model simplifies a system, retaining essential components while eliminating parts that are not of interest. ecology has a rich history of using models to gain insight into populations, often borrowing both model structures and analysis methods from demographers and engineers. Much of the development of the models has been a consequence of mathematicians and physicists seeing simple analogies between their models and patterns in natural systems. Consequently, one major application of ecological modeling has been to emphasize the analysis of dynamics of often complex models to provide insight into theoretical aspects of ecology.1

[A process of aquatic ecological function regionalization: The dual tree framework and conceptual model].

PubMed

Guo, Shu Hai; Wu, Bo

2017-12-01

Aquatic ecological regionalization and aquatic ecological function regionalization are the basis of water environmental management of a river basin and rational utilization of an aquatic ecosystem, and have been studied in China for more than ten years. Regarding the common problems in this field, the relationship between aquatic ecological regionalization and aquatic ecological function regionalization was discussed in this study by systematic analysis of the aquatic ecological zoning and the types of aquatic ecological function. Based on the dual tree structure, we put forward the RFCH process and the diamond conceptual model. Taking Liaohe River basin as an example and referring to the results of existing regionalization studies, we classified the aquatic ecological function regions based on three-class aquatic ecological regionalization. This study provided a process framework for aquatic ecological function regionalization of a river basin.

COMPARING THE UTILITY OF MULTIMEDIA MODELS FOR HUMAN AND ECOLOGICAL EXPOSURE ANALYSIS: TWO CASES

EPA Science Inventory

A number of models are available for exposure assessment; however, few are used as tools for both human and ecosystem risks. This discussion will consider two modeling frameworks that have recently been used to support human and ecological decision making. The study will compare ...

Land Ecological Security Evaluation of Underground Iron Mine Based on PSR Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xiao, Xiao; Chen, Yong; Ruan, Jinghua; Hong, Qiang; Gan, Yong

2018-01-01

Iron ore mine provides an important strategic resource to the national economy while it also causes many serious ecological problems to the environment. The study summed up the characteristics of ecological environment problems of underground iron mine. Considering the mining process of underground iron mine, we analysis connections between mining production, resource, environment and economical background. The paper proposed a land ecological security evaluation system and method of underground iron mine based on Pressure-State-Response model. Our application in Chengchao iron mine proves its efficiency and promising guide on land ecological security evaluation.

Land-use change in oil palm dominated tropical landscapes-An agent-based model to explore ecological and socio-economic trade-offs.

PubMed

Dislich, Claudia; Hettig, Elisabeth; Salecker, Jan; Heinonen, Johannes; Lay, Jann; Meyer, Katrin M; Wiegand, Kerstin; Tarigan, Suria

2018-01-01

Land-use changes have dramatically transformed tropical landscapes. We describe an ecological-economic land-use change model as an integrated, exploratory tool used to analyze how tropical land-use change affects ecological and socio-economic functions. The model analysis seeks to determine what kind of landscape mosaic can improve the ensemble of ecosystem functioning, biodiversity, and economic benefit based on the synergies and trade-offs that we have to account for. More specifically, (1) how do specific ecosystem functions, such as carbon storage, and economic functions, such as household consumption, relate to each other? (2) How do external factors, such as the output prices of crops, affect these relationships? (3) How do these relationships change when production inefficiency differs between smallholder farmers and learning is incorporated? We initialize the ecological-economic model with artificially generated land-use maps parameterized to our study region. The economic sub-model simulates smallholder land-use management decisions based on a profit maximization assumption. Each household determines factor inputs for all household fields and decides on land-use change based on available wealth. The ecological sub-model includes a simple account of carbon sequestration in above-ground and below-ground vegetation. We demonstrate model capabilities with results on household consumption and carbon sequestration from different output price and farming efficiency scenarios. The overall results reveal complex interactions between the economic and ecological spheres. For instance, model scenarios with heterogeneous crop-specific household productivity reveal a comparatively high inertia of land-use change. Our model analysis even shows such an increased temporal stability in landscape composition and carbon stocks of the agricultural area under dynamic price trends. These findings underline the utility of ecological-economic models, such as ours, to act as exploratory tools which can advance our understanding of the mechanisms underlying the trade-offs and synergies of ecological and economic functions in tropical landscapes.

Land-use change in oil palm dominated tropical landscapes—An agent-based model to explore ecological and socio-economic trade-offs

PubMed Central

Dislich, Claudia; Hettig, Elisabeth; Heinonen, Johannes; Lay, Jann; Meyer, Katrin M.; Wiegand, Kerstin; Tarigan, Suria

2018-01-01

Land-use changes have dramatically transformed tropical landscapes. We describe an ecological-economic land-use change model as an integrated, exploratory tool used to analyze how tropical land-use change affects ecological and socio-economic functions. The model analysis seeks to determine what kind of landscape mosaic can improve the ensemble of ecosystem functioning, biodiversity, and economic benefit based on the synergies and trade-offs that we have to account for. More specifically, (1) how do specific ecosystem functions, such as carbon storage, and economic functions, such as household consumption, relate to each other? (2) How do external factors, such as the output prices of crops, affect these relationships? (3) How do these relationships change when production inefficiency differs between smallholder farmers and learning is incorporated? We initialize the ecological-economic model with artificially generated land-use maps parameterized to our study region. The economic sub-model simulates smallholder land-use management decisions based on a profit maximization assumption. Each household determines factor inputs for all household fields and decides on land-use change based on available wealth. The ecological sub-model includes a simple account of carbon sequestration in above-ground and below-ground vegetation. We demonstrate model capabilities with results on household consumption and carbon sequestration from different output price and farming efficiency scenarios. The overall results reveal complex interactions between the economic and ecological spheres. For instance, model scenarios with heterogeneous crop-specific household productivity reveal a comparatively high inertia of land-use change. Our model analysis even shows such an increased temporal stability in landscape composition and carbon stocks of the agricultural area under dynamic price trends. These findings underline the utility of ecological-economic models, such as ours, to act as exploratory tools which can advance our understanding of the mechanisms underlying the trade-offs and synergies of ecological and economic functions in tropical landscapes. PMID:29351290

Requirements for psychological models to support design: Towards ecological task analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kirlik, Alex

1991-01-01

Cognitive engineering is largely concerned with creating environmental designs to support skillful and effective human activity. A set of necessary conditions are proposed for psychological models capable of supporting this enterprise. An analysis of the psychological nature of the design product is used to identify a set of constraints that models must meet if they can usefully guide design. It is concluded that cognitive engineering requires models with resources for describing the integrated human-environment system, and that these models must be capable of describing the activities underlying fluent and effective interaction. These features are required in order to be able to predict the cognitive activity that will be required given various design concepts, and to design systems that promote the acquisition of fluent, skilled behavior. These necessary conditions suggest that an ecological approach can provide valuable resources for psychological modeling to support design. Relying heavily on concepts from Brunswik's and Gibson's ecological theories, ecological task analysis is proposed as a framework in which to predict the types of cognitive activity required to achieve productive behavior, and to suggest how interfaces can be manipulated to alleviate certain types of cognitive demands. The framework is described in terms, and illustrated with an example from the previous research on modeling skilled human-environment interaction.

[Dynamic monitoring and analysis of ecological environment in Weinan City, Northwest China based on RSEI model].

PubMed

Song, Hui Min; Xue, Liang

2016-12-01

Based on the data of remote sensing images from Landsat in 1995 and 2015, this paper used the principal component analysis (PCA) method to determine the weights of four ecological indexes (greenness, dryness, wetness and heat), and then selected a evaluation model of remote sensing based ecological index (RSEI) to monitor and analyze the ecological environment quality of Weinan City from 1995 to 2015. The results showed that the mean values of RSEI in Weinan City increased from 0.489 to 0.556 during 1995-2015, which indicated the ecological environment qua-lity had been improved. The improved area of ecological quality was mainly distributed in the central area of Weinan City and its proportion was 49.6%. While the proportion of ecological environment degradation was 15.4%, and such areas were mainly distributed in some mine areas of Hancheng City and the southern Weinan (Weinan Section in North Qinling Mountains). The quality of ecolo-gical environment was greatly influenced by the urban planning and construction in the study area. Generally, the ecological condition of Weinan City had been improved, which benefited from the attention and investment of government.

ASSESSMENT OF SPATIAL AUTOCORRELATION IN EMPIRICAL MODELS IN ECOLOGY

EPA Science Inventory

Statistically assessing ecological models is inherently difficult because data are autocorrelated and this autocorrelation varies in an unknown fashion. At a simple level, the linking of a single species to a habitat type is a straightforward analysis. With some investigation int...

Development of stable isotope mixing models in ecology - Dublin

EPA Science Inventory

More than 40 years ago, stable isotope analysis methods used in geochemistry began to be applied to ecological studies. One common application is using mathematical mixing models to sort out the proportional contributions of various sources to a mixture. Examples include contri...

Historical development of stable isotope mixing models in ecology

EPA Science Inventory

More than 40 years ago, stable isotope analysis methods used in geochemistry began to be applied to ecological studies. One common application is using mathematical mixing models to sort out the proportional contributions of various sources to a mixture. Examples include contri...

Development of stable isotope mixing models in ecology - Perth

EPA Science Inventory

More than 40 years ago, stable isotope analysis methods used in geochemistry began to be applied to ecological studies. One common application is using mathematical mixing models to sort out the proportional contributions of various sources to a mixture. Examples include contri...

Development of stable isotope mixing models in ecology - Fremantle

EPA Science Inventory

More than 40 years ago, stable isotope analysis methods used in geochemistry began to be applied to ecological studies. One common application is using mathematical mixing models to sort out the proportional contributions of various sources to a mixture. Examples include contri...

Development of stable isotope mixing models in ecology - Sydney

EPA Science Inventory

More than 40 years ago, stable isotope analysis methods used in geochemistry began to be applied to ecological studies. One common application is using mathematical mixing models to sort out the proportional contributions of various sources to a mixture. Examples include contri...

Using global sensitivity analysis of demographic models for ecological impact assessment.

PubMed

Aiello-Lammens, Matthew E; Akçakaya, H Resit

2017-02-01

Population viability analysis (PVA) is widely used to assess population-level impacts of environmental changes on species. When combined with sensitivity analysis, PVA yields insights into the effects of parameter and model structure uncertainty. This helps researchers prioritize efforts for further data collection so that model improvements are efficient and helps managers prioritize conservation and management actions. Usually, sensitivity is analyzed by varying one input parameter at a time and observing the influence that variation has over model outcomes. This approach does not account for interactions among parameters. Global sensitivity analysis (GSA) overcomes this limitation by varying several model inputs simultaneously. Then, regression techniques allow measuring the importance of input-parameter uncertainties. In many conservation applications, the goal of demographic modeling is to assess how different scenarios of impact or management cause changes in a population. This is challenging because the uncertainty of input-parameter values can be confounded with the effect of impacts and management actions. We developed a GSA method that separates model outcome uncertainty resulting from parameter uncertainty from that resulting from projected ecological impacts or simulated management actions, effectively separating the 2 main questions that sensitivity analysis asks. We applied this method to assess the effects of predicted sea-level rise on Snowy Plover (Charadrius nivosus). A relatively small number of replicate models (approximately 100) resulted in consistent measures of variable importance when not trying to separate the effects of ecological impacts from parameter uncertainty. However, many more replicate models (approximately 500) were required to separate these effects. These differences are important to consider when using demographic models to estimate ecological impacts of management actions. © 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.

Evaluation and Analysis of Eco-Security in Environmentally Sensitive Areas Using an Emergy Ecological Footprint.

PubMed

Chen, Han-Shen

2017-01-30

In this paper, the overall ecological and environmental sustainability in the Cing-Jing region in Taiwan is examined. As land use and cover change has been found to be an important analysis method, an emergy ecological footprint model was applied and the eco-security assessed to ensure authorities maintain a balance between ecological preservation and tourism development. While the ecological environment in the Cing-Jing region from 2008 to 2014 was found to be within safe levels, all related indices had increased considerably. A Grey model was used to predict the 2015-2024 ecological carrying capacities, from which it was found that there is expected to be a large increase in per capita ecological footprints (EFs), meaning that in the future there is going to be a larger ecological deficit and a higher ecological pressure index (EFI), with the eco-security predicted to reach a Grade 2 intermediate level in 2022. As the Cing-Jing region is predicted to become ecologically unsustainable, local, regional, and national governments need to implement regulations to strictly control the land use in the Cing-Jing region. This study demonstrated that emergy EF (EEF) theory application can give objective guidance to decision-makers to ensure that recreational non-urban eco-security can be maintained at a safe level.

Evaluation and Analysis of Eco-Security in Environmentally Sensitive Areas Using an Emergy Ecological Footprint

PubMed Central

Chen, Han-Shen

2017-01-01

In this paper, the overall ecological and environmental sustainability in the Cing-Jing region in Taiwan is examined. As land use and cover change has been found to be an important analysis method, an emergy ecological footprint model was applied and the eco-security assessed to ensure authorities maintain a balance between ecological preservation and tourism development. While the ecological environment in the Cing-Jing region from 2008 to 2014 was found to be within safe levels, all related indices had increased considerably. A Grey model was used to predict the 2015–2024 ecological carrying capacities, from which it was found that there is expected to be a large increase in per capita ecological footprints (EFs), meaning that in the future there is going to be a larger ecological deficit and a higher ecological pressure index (EFI), with the eco-security predicted to reach a Grade 2 intermediate level in 2022. As the Cing-Jing region is predicted to become ecologically unsustainable, local, regional, and national governments need to implement regulations to strictly control the land use in the Cing-Jing region. This study demonstrated that emergy EF (EEF) theory application can give objective guidance to decision-makers to ensure that recreational non-urban eco-security can be maintained at a safe level. PMID:28146086

Ecological determinants of divorce: a structural approach to the explanation of Japanese divorce.

PubMed

Fukurai, H; Alston, J P

1992-01-01

This paper examines the ecological determinants of contemporary Japanese divorce rates on the prefectural level. LISREL and computer-generated graphics are the analytic methods used. The aggregate level of analysis demands the use of the ecological model which posits that demographic changes, economic activities, migration patterns, and the level of urbanization are significant predictors of divorce rate. Our analysis demonstrates that sex ratio, female labor force participation, female in-migration patterns, population increase, and net household income all play a significant role in affecting the divorce rate. Our findings also confirm the well-supported hypothesis that both population density and modernization positively influence modern Japan's divorce rates. The residual analysis also points out that in order to account for the large proportion of the unexplained variance of Japanese divorce, behavioral-related variables and island- or prefecture-specific dimensions need to be included in the ecological model of divorce.

Sensitivity analysis of Repast computational ecology models with R/Repast.

PubMed

Prestes García, Antonio; Rodríguez-Patón, Alfonso

2016-12-01

Computational ecology is an emerging interdisciplinary discipline founded mainly on modeling and simulation methods for studying ecological systems. Among the existing modeling formalisms, the individual-based modeling is particularly well suited for capturing the complex temporal and spatial dynamics as well as the nonlinearities arising in ecosystems, communities, or populations due to individual variability. In addition, being a bottom-up approach, it is useful for providing new insights on the local mechanisms which are generating some observed global dynamics. Of course, no conclusions about model results could be taken seriously if they are based on a single model execution and they are not analyzed carefully. Therefore, a sound methodology should always be used for underpinning the interpretation of model results. The sensitivity analysis is a methodology for quantitatively assessing the effect of input uncertainty in the simulation output which should be incorporated compulsorily to every work based on in-silico experimental setup. In this article, we present R/Repast a GNU R package for running and analyzing Repast Simphony models accompanied by two worked examples on how to perform global sensitivity analysis and how to interpret the results.

An ecological systems approach to bullying behaviors among middle school students in the United States.

PubMed

Lee, Chang-Hun

2011-05-01

The aim of this study is to identify an ecological prediction model of bullying behaviors. Based on an ecological systems theory, this study identifies significant factors influencing bullying behaviors at different levels of middle and high school. These levels include the microsystem, mesosystem, exosystem, and macrosystem. More specifically, the ecological factors investigated in this multilevel analysis are individual traits, family experiences, parental involvement, school climate, and community characteristics. Using data collected in 2008 from 485 randomly selected students in a school district, this study identifies a best-fitting structural model of bullying behavior. Findings suggest that the ecological model accounted for a high portion of variance in bullying behaviors. All of the ecological systems as well as individual traits were found to be significant influences on bullying behaviors either directly or indirectly.

Social Ecological Model Analysis for ICT Integration

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zagami, Jason

2013-01-01

ICT integration of teacher preparation programmes was undertaken by the Australian Teaching Teachers for the Future (TTF) project in all 39 Australian teacher education institutions and highlighted the need for guidelines to inform systemic ICT integration approaches. A Social Ecological Model (SEM) was used to positively inform integration…

Extending nonlinear analysis to short ecological time series.

PubMed

Hsieh, Chih-hao; Anderson, Christian; Sugihara, George

2008-01-01

Nonlinearity is important and ubiquitous in ecology. Though detectable in principle, nonlinear behavior is often difficult to characterize, analyze, and incorporate mechanistically into models of ecosystem function. One obvious reason is that quantitative nonlinear analysis tools are data intensive (require long time series), and time series in ecology are generally short. Here we demonstrate a useful method that circumvents data limitation and reduces sampling error by combining ecologically similar multispecies time series into one long time series. With this technique, individual ecological time series containing as few as 20 data points can be mined for such important information as (1) significantly improved forecast ability, (2) the presence and location of nonlinearity, and (3) the effective dimensionality (the number of relevant variables) of an ecological system.

INTEGRATING SOCIAL, ECONOMIC AND ECOLOGICAL ANALYSIS TO IMPROVE WILDFIRE MANAGEMENT IN THE U.S.: TESTING A NEW ORGANIZING APPROACH FOR ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT

EPA Science Inventory

Conducting an integrated analysis to evaluate the societal and ecological consequences of environmental management actions requires decisions about data collection, theory development, modeling and valuation. Approaching these decisions in coordinated fashion necessitates a syste...

Spatio-Temporal Simulation and Analysis of Regional Ecological Security Based on Lstm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gong, C.; Qi, L.; Heming, L.; Karimian, H.; Yuqin, M.

2017-10-01

Region is a complicated system, where human, nature and society interact and influence. Quantitative modeling and simulation of ecology in the region are the key to realize the strategy of regional sustainable development. Traditional machine learning methods have made some achievements in the modeling of regional ecosystems, but it is difficult to determine the learning characteristics and to realize spatio-temporal simulation. Deep learning does not need prior identification of training characteristics, have excellent feature learning ability, can improve the accuracy of model prediction, so the use of deep learning model has a significant advantage. Therefore, we use net primary productivity (NPP), atmospheric optical depth (AOD), moderate-resolution imaging spectrometer (MODIS), Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), landcover and population data, and use LSTM to do spatio-temporal simulation. We conduct spatial analysis and driving force analysis. The conclusions are as follows: the ecological deficit of northwestern Henan and urban communities such as Zhengzhou is higher. The reason of former lies in the weak land productivity of the Loess Plateau, the irrational crop cultivation mode. The latter lies in the high consumption of resources in the large urban agglomeration; The positive trend of Henan ecological development from 2013 is mainly due to the effective environmental protection policy in the 12th five-year plan; The main driver of the sustained ecological deficit growth of Henan in 2004-2013 is high-speed urbanization, increasing population and goods consumption. This article provides relevant basic scientific support and reference for the regional ecological scientific management and construction.

An Integrated Ecological Modeling System for Assessing Impacts of Multiple Stressors on Stream and Riverine Ecosystem Services Within River Basins

EPA Science Inventory

We demonstrate a novel, spatially explicit assessment of the current condition of aquatic ecosystem services, with limited sensitivity analysis for the atmospheric contaminant mercury. The Integrated Ecological Modeling System (IEMS) forecasts water quality and quantity, habitat ...

The influence of the interactions between anthropogenic activities and multiple ecological factors on land surface temperatures of urban forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ren, Y.

2017-12-01

Context Land surface temperatures (LSTs) spatio-temporal distribution pattern of urban forests are influenced by many ecological factors; the identification of interaction between these factors can improve simulations and predictions of spatial patterns of urban cold islands. This quantitative research requires an integrated method that combines multiple sources data with spatial statistical analysis. Objectives The purpose of this study was to clarify urban forest LST influence interaction between anthropogenic activities and multiple ecological factors using cluster analysis of hot and cold spots and Geogdetector model. We introduced the hypothesis that anthropogenic activity interacts with certain ecological factors, and their combination influences urban forests LST. We also assumed that spatio-temporal distributions of urban forest LST should be similar to those of ecological factors and can be represented quantitatively. Methods We used Jinjiang as a representative city in China as a case study. Population density was employed to represent anthropogenic activity. We built up a multi-source data (forest inventory, digital elevation models (DEM), population, and remote sensing imagery) on a unified urban scale to support urban forest LST influence interaction research. Through a combination of spatial statistical analysis results, multi-source spatial data, and Geogdetector model, the interaction mechanisms of urban forest LST were revealed. Results Although different ecological factors have different influences on forest LST, in two periods with different hot spots and cold spots, the patch area and dominant tree species were the main factors contributing to LST clustering in urban forests. The interaction between anthropogenic activity and multiple ecological factors increased LST in urban forest stands, linearly and nonlinearly. Strong interactions between elevation and dominant species were generally observed and were prevalent in either hot or cold spots areas in different years. Conclusions In conclusion, a combination of spatial statistics and GeogDetector models should be effective for quantitatively evaluating interactive relationships among ecological factors, anthropogenic activity and LST.

[An emergy-ecological footprint model based evaluation of ecological security at the old industrial area in Northeast China: A case study of Liaoning Province.

PubMed

Yang, Qing; Lu, Cheng Peng; Zhou, Feng; Geng, Yong; Jing, Hong Shuang; Ren, Wan Xia; Xue, Bing

2016-05-01

Based on the integrated model of emergy-ecological footprint approaches, the ecological security of Liaoning Province, a typical case for the old industrial area, was quantitatively evaluated from 2003 to 2012, followed by a scenario analysis on the development trend of the ecological secu-rity by employing the gray kinetic model. The results showed that, from 2003 to 2012, the value of emergy ecological-capacity per capita in Liaoning Province decreased from 3.13 hm 2 to 3.07 hm 2 , while the emergy-ecological footprint increased from 13.88 hm 2 to 21.96 hm 2 , which indicated that the ecological deficit existed in Liaoning Province and the situation was getting worse. The ecological pressure index increased from 4.43 to 7.16 during the studied period, and the alert level of ecological security changed from light to middle level. According to the development trend, the emergy ecological capacity per capita during 2013-2022 would correspondingly decrease from 3.04 hm 2 to 2.98 hm 2 , while the emergy ecological footprint would increase from 22.72 hm 2 to 35.87 hm 2 , the ecological pressure index would increase from 7.46 to 12.04, and the ecological deficit would keep increasing and the ecological security level would slide into slightly unsafe condition. The alert level of ecological security would turn to be middle or serious, suggesting the problems in ecological safety needed to be solved urgently.

Probability bounds analysis for nonlinear population ecology models.

PubMed

Enszer, Joshua A; Andrei Măceș, D; Stadtherr, Mark A

2015-09-01

Mathematical models in population ecology often involve parameters that are empirically determined and inherently uncertain, with probability distributions for the uncertainties not known precisely. Propagating such imprecise uncertainties rigorously through a model to determine their effect on model outputs can be a challenging problem. We illustrate here a method for the direct propagation of uncertainties represented by probability bounds though nonlinear, continuous-time, dynamic models in population ecology. This makes it possible to determine rigorous bounds on the probability that some specified outcome for a population is achieved, which can be a core problem in ecosystem modeling for risk assessment and management. Results can be obtained at a computational cost that is considerably less than that required by statistical sampling methods such as Monte Carlo analysis. The method is demonstrated using three example systems, with focus on a model of an experimental aquatic food web subject to the effects of contamination by ionic liquids, a new class of potentially important industrial chemicals. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Using a neural network approach and time series data from an international monitoring station in the Yellow Sea for modeling marine ecosystems.

PubMed

Zhang, Yingying; Wang, Juncheng; Vorontsov, A M; Hou, Guangli; Nikanorova, M N; Wang, Hongliang

2014-01-01

The international marine ecological safety monitoring demonstration station in the Yellow Sea was developed as a collaborative project between China and Russia. It is a nonprofit technical workstation designed as a facility for marine scientific research for public welfare. By undertaking long-term monitoring of the marine environment and automatic data collection, this station will provide valuable information for marine ecological protection and disaster prevention and reduction. The results of some initial research by scientists at the research station into predictive modeling of marine ecological environments and early warning are described in this paper. Marine ecological processes are influenced by many factors including hydrological and meteorological conditions, biological factors, and human activities. Consequently, it is very difficult to incorporate all these influences and their interactions in a deterministic or analysis model. A prediction model integrating a time series prediction approach with neural network nonlinear modeling is proposed for marine ecological parameters. The model explores the natural fluctuations in marine ecological parameters by learning from the latest observed data automatically, and then predicting future values of the parameter. The model is updated in a "rolling" fashion with new observed data from the monitoring station. Prediction experiments results showed that the neural network prediction model based on time series data is effective for marine ecological prediction and can be used for the development of early warning systems.

[Ecological management model of agriculture-pasture ecotone based on the theory of energy and material flow--a case study in Houshan dryland area of Inner Mongolia].

PubMed

Fan, Jinlong; Pan, Zhihua; Zhao, Ju; Zheng, Dawei; Tuo, Debao; Zhao, Peiyi

2004-04-01

The degradation of ecological environment in the agriculture-pasture ecotone in northern China has been paid more attentions. Based on our many years' research and under the guide of energy and material flow theory, this paper put forward an ecological management model, with a hill as the basic cell and according to the natural, social and economic characters of Houshan dryland farming area inside the north agriculture-pasture ecotone. The input and output of three models, i.e., the traditional along-slope-tillage model, the artificial grassland model and the ecological management model, were observed and recorded in detail in 1999. Energy and material flow analysis based on field test showed that compared with traditional model, ecological management model could increase solar use efficiency by 8.3%, energy output by 8.7%, energy conversion efficiency by 19.4%, N output by 26.5%, N conversion efficiency by 57.1%, P output by 12.1%, P conversion efficiency by 45.0%, and water use efficiency by 17.7%. Among the models, artificial grassland model had the lowest solar use efficiency, energy output and energy conversion efficiency; while the ecological management model had the most outputs and benefits, was the best model with high economic effect, and increased economic benefits by 16.1%, compared with the traditional model.

[Uncertainty analysis of ecological risk assessment caused by heavy-metals deposition from MSWI emission].

PubMed

Liao, Zhi-Heng; Sun, Jia-Ren; Wu, Dui; Fan, Shao-Jia; Ren, Ming-Zhong; Lü, Jia-Yang

2014-06-01

The CALPUFF model was applied to simulate the ground-level atmospheric concentrations of Pb and Cd from municipal solid waste incineration (MSWI) plants, and the soil concentration model was used to estimate soil concentration increments after atmospheric deposition based on Monte Carlo simulation, then ecological risk assessment was conducted by the potential ecological risk index method. The results showed that the largest atmospheric concentrations of Pb and Cd were 5.59 x 109-3) microg x m(-3) and 5.57 x 10(-4) microg x m(-3), respectively, while the maxima of soil concentration incremental medium of Pb and Cd were 2.26 mg x kg(-1) and 0.21 mg x kg(-1), respectively; High risk areas were located next to the incinerators, Cd contributed the most to the ecological risk, and Pb was basically free of pollution risk; Higher ecological hazard level was predicted at the most polluted point in urban areas with a 55.30% probability, while in rural areas, the most polluted point was assessed to moderate ecological hazard level with a 72.92% probability. In addition, sensitivity analysis of calculation parameters in the soil concentration model was conducted, which showed the simulated results of urban and rural area were most sensitive to soil mix depth and dry deposition rate, respectively.

[Ecological vulnerability of coal mining area: a case study of Shengli Coalfield in Xilinguole of Inner Mongolia, China].

PubMed

Quan, Zhan-Jun; Li, Yuan; Li, Jun-Sheng; Han, Yu; Xiao, Neng-Wen; Fu, Meng-Di

2013-06-01

In this paper, an ecological vulnerability evaluation index system for the Shengli Coalfield in Xilinguole of Inner Mongolia was established, which included 16 factors in ecological sensitivity, natural and social pressure, and ecological recovery capacity, respectively. Based on the expert scoring method and analytic hierarchy process (AHP), an ecological vulnerability model was built for the calculation of the regional ecological vulnerability by means of RS and GIS spatial analysis. An analysis of the relationships between land use and ecological vulnerability was also made, and the results were tested by spatial auto-correlation analysis. Overall, the ecological vulnerability of the study area was at medium-high level. The exploitation of four opencast areas in the Coalfield caused a significant increase of ecological vulnerability. Moreover, due to the effects of mine drained water and human activities, the 300 -2000 m around the opencast areas was turning into higher ecologically fragile area. With further exploitation, the whole Coalfield was evolved into moderate and heavy ecological vulnerability area, and the coal resources mining was a key factor in this process. The cluster analysis showed that the spatial distribution of the ecological vulnerability in the study area had reasonable clustering characteristics. To decrease the population density, control the grazing capacity of grassland, and regulate the ratios of construction land and cultivated land could be the optimal ways for resolving the natural and social pressure, and to increase the investment and improve the vegetation recovery coefficient could be the fundamental measures for decreasing the ecological vulnerability of the study area.

Research on agricultural ecology and environment analysis and modeling based on RS and GIS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Wensheng; Chen, Hongfu; Wang, Mingsheng

2009-07-01

Analysis of agricultural ecology and environment is based on the data of agricultural resources, which are obtained by RS monitoring. The over-exploitation of farmlands will cause structural changes of the soil composition, and damage the planting environment and the agro-ecosystem. Through the research on the dynamic monitoring methods of multitemporal RS images and GIS technology, the crop growth status, crop acreage and other relevant information in agricultural production are extracted based on the monitor and analysis of the conditions of the fields and crop growth. The agro-ecological GIS platform is developed with the establishment of the agricultural resources management database, which manages spatial data, RS data and attribute data of agricultural resources. Using the RS, GIS analysis results, the reasons of agro-ecological destruction are analyzed and the evaluation methods are established. This paper puts forward the concept of utilization capacity of farmland, which describes farmland space for development and utilization that is influenced by the conditions of the land, water resources, climate, pesticides and chemical fertilizers and many other agricultural production factors. Assessment model of agricultural land use capacity is constructed with the help of Fuzzy. Assessing the utilization capacity of farmland can be helpful to agricultural production and ecological protection of farmland. This paper describes the application of the capacity evaluation model with simulated data in two aspects, namely, in evaluating the status of farmland development and utilization and in optimal planting.

Research on the energy and ecological efficiency of mechanical equipment remanufacturing systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shi, Junli; Cheng, Jinshi; Ma, Qinyi; Wang, Yajun

2017-08-01

According to the characteristics of mechanical equipment remanufacturing system, the dynamic performance of energy consumption and emission is explored, the equipment energy efficiency and emission analysis model is established firstly, and then energy and ecological efficiency analysis method of the remanufacturing system is put forward, at last, the energy and ecological efficiency of WD615.87 automotive diesel engine remanufacturing system as an example is analyzed, the way of energy efficiency improvementnt and environmental friendly mechanism of remanufacturing process is put forward.

Multi-Source Image Analysis.

DTIC Science & Technology

1979-12-01

vegetation shows on the imagery but emphasis has been placed on the detection of wooded and scrub areas and the differentiation between deciduous and...S. A., 1974b, Phenology and remote sensing, phenology and seasonality modeling: in Helmut Lieth, H. (ed.), Ecological Studies-Analysis and Synthesis...Remote Sensing of Ecology , University of d-eorgia Press, Athens, Georgia, p. 63-94. Phillipson, W. R. and T. Liang, 1975, Airphoto analysis in the

An overview of ecological monitoring based on geographic information system (GIS) and remote sensing (RS) technology in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Jing; Zhang, Jia; Du, Xiangyang; Kang, Hou; Qiao, Minjuan

2017-11-01

Due to the rapid development of human economy and society, the resulting ecological problems are becoming more and more prominent, and the dynamic monitoring of the various elements in the ecosystem has become the focus of the current research. For the complex structure and function of the ecological environment monitoring, advanced technical means should be adopted. With the development of spatial information technology, the ecological monitoring technology based on GIS and RS is becoming more and more perfect, and spatial analysis will play an important role in the field of environmental protection. Based on the GIS and RS technology, this paper analyzes the general centralized ecological monitoring model, and makes an objective analysis of the current ecological monitoring trend of China. These are important for the protection and management of ecological environment in China.

Transdisciplinary Application of Cross-Scale Resilience ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The cross-scale resilience model was developed in ecology to explain the emergence of resilience from the distribution of ecological functions within and across scales, and as a tool to assess resilience. We propose that the model and the underlyingdiscontinuity hypothesis are relevant to other complex adaptive systems, and can be used to identify and track changes in system parameters related to resilience. We explain the theory behind the cross-scale resilience model, review the cases where it has been applied to non-ecological systems, and discuss some examples of social-ecological, archaeological/anthropological, and economic systems where a cross-scale resilience analysis could add a quantitative dimension to our current understanding of system dynamics and resilience. We argue that the scaling and diversity parameters suitable for a resilience analysis of ecological systems are appropriate for a broad suite of systems where non-normative quantitative assessments of resilience are desired. Our planet is currently characterized by fast environmental and social change, and the cross-scale resilience model has the potential to quantify resilience across many types of complex adaptive systems. Comparative analyses of complex systems have, in fact, demonstrated commonalities among distinctly different types of systems (Schneider & Kay 1994; Holling 2001; Lansing 2003; Foster 2005; Bullmore et al. 2009). Both biological and non-biological complex systems appear t

Comparative analysis of remotely-sensed data products via ecological niche modeling of avian influenza case occurrences in Middle Eastern poultry.

PubMed

Bodbyl-Roels, Sarah; Peterson, A Townsend; Xiao, Xiangming

2011-03-28

Ecological niche modeling integrates known sites of occurrence of species or phenomena with data on environmental variation across landscapes to infer environmental spaces potentially inhabited (i.e., the ecological niche) to generate predictive maps of potential distributions in geographic space. Key inputs to this process include raster data layers characterizing spatial variation in environmental parameters, such as vegetation indices from remotely sensed satellite imagery. The extent to which ecological niche models reflect real-world distributions depends on a number of factors, but an obvious concern is the quality and content of the environmental data layers. We assessed ecological niche model predictions of H5N1 avian flu presence quantitatively within and among four geographic regions, based on models incorporating two means of summarizing three vegetation indices derived from the MODIS satellite. We evaluated our models for predictive ability using partial ROC analysis and GLM ANOVA to compare performance among indices and regions. We found correlations between vegetation indices to be high, such that they contain information that overlaps broadly. Neither the type of vegetation index used nor method of summary affected model performance significantly. However, the degree to which model predictions had to be transferred (i.e., projected onto landscapes and conditions not represented on the landscape of training) impacted predictive strength greatly (within-region model predictions far out-performed models projected among regions). Our results provide the first quantitative tests of most appropriate uses of different remotely sensed data sets in ecological niche modeling applications. While our testing did not result in a decisive "best" index product or means of summarizing indices, it emphasizes the need for careful evaluation of products used in modeling (e.g. matching temporal dimensions and spatial resolution) for optimum performance, instead of simple reliance on large numbers of data layers.

The possibility of coexistence and co-development in language competition: ecology-society computational model and simulation.

PubMed

Yun, Jian; Shang, Song-Chao; Wei, Xiao-Dan; Liu, Shuang; Li, Zhi-Jie

2016-01-01

Language is characterized by both ecological properties and social properties, and competition is the basic form of language evolution. The rise and decline of one language is a result of competition between languages. Moreover, this rise and decline directly influences the diversity of human culture. Mathematics and computer modeling for language competition has been a popular topic in the fields of linguistics, mathematics, computer science, ecology, and other disciplines. Currently, there are several problems in the research on language competition modeling. First, comprehensive mathematical analysis is absent in most studies of language competition models. Next, most language competition models are based on the assumption that one language in the model is stronger than the other. These studies tend to ignore cases where there is a balance of power in the competition. The competition between two well-matched languages is more practical, because it can facilitate the co-development of two languages. A third issue with current studies is that many studies have an evolution result where the weaker language inevitably goes extinct. From the integrated point of view of ecology and sociology, this paper improves the Lotka-Volterra model and basic reaction-diffusion model to propose an "ecology-society" computational model for describing language competition. Furthermore, a strict and comprehensive mathematical analysis was made for the stability of the equilibria. Two languages in competition may be either well-matched or greatly different in strength, which was reflected in the experimental design. The results revealed that language coexistence, and even co-development, are likely to occur during language competition.

Study on the Progress of Ecological Fragility Assessment in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Pei; Hou, Kang; Chang, Yue; Li, Xuxiang; Zhang, Yunwei

2018-02-01

The basic elements of human survival are based on the ecological environment. The development of social economic and the security of the ecological environment are closely linked and interact with each other. The fragility of the environment directly affects the stability of the regional ecosystem and the sustainable development of the ecological environment. As part of the division of the national ecological security, the assessment of ecological fragility has become a hot and difficult issue in environmental research, and researchers at home and abroad have systematically studied the causes and states of ecological fragility. The assessment of regional ecological fragility is a qualitative and quantitative analysis of the unbalanced distribution of ecological environment factors caused by human socio-economic activities or changes in ecosystems. At present, researches on ecological fragility has not formed a complete and unified index assessment system, and the unity of the assessment model has a direct impact on the accuracy of the index weights. Therefore, the discussion on selection of ecological fragility indexes and the improvement of ecological fragility assessment model is necessary, which is good for the improvement of ecological fragility assessment system in China.

System dynamic modelling to assess economic viability and risk trade-offs for ecological restoration in South Africa.

PubMed

Crookes, D J; Blignaut, J N; de Wit, M P; Esler, K J; Le Maitre, D C; Milton, S J; Mitchell, S A; Cloete, J; de Abreu, P; Fourie nee Vlok, H; Gull, K; Marx, D; Mugido, W; Ndhlovu, T; Nowell, M; Pauw, M; Rebelo, A

2013-05-15

Can markets assist by providing support for ecological restoration, and if so, under what conditions? The first step in addressing this question is to develop a consistent methodology for economic evaluation of ecological restoration projects. A risk analysis process was followed in which a system dynamics model was constructed for eight diverse case study sites where ecological restoration is currently being pursued. Restoration costs vary across each of these sites, as do the benefits associated with restored ecosystem functioning. The system dynamics model simulates the ecological, hydrological and economic benefits of ecological restoration and informs a portfolio mapping exercise where payoffs are matched against the likelihood of success of a project, as well as a number of other factors (such as project costs and risk measures). This is the first known application that couples ecological restoration with system dynamics and portfolio mapping. The results suggest an approach that is able to move beyond traditional indicators of project success, since the effect of discounting is virtually eliminated. We conclude that systems dynamic modelling with portfolio mapping can guide decisions on when markets for restoration activities may be feasible. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Operation Method of Smarter City Based on Ecological Theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fan, C.; Fan, H. Y.

2017-10-01

As the city and urbanization’s accelerated pace has caused galloping population, the urban framework is extending with increasingly complex social problems. The urban management tends to become complicated and the governance seems more difficult to pursue. exploring the urban management’s new model has attracted local governments’ urgent attention. tcombines the guiding ideology and that management’s practices based on ecological theory, explains the Smarter city Ecology Managementmodel’s formation, makes modern urban management’s comparative analysis and further defines the aforesaid management mode’s conceptual model. Based on the smarter city system theory’s ecological carrying capacity, the author uses mathematical model to prove the coordination relationship between the smarter city Ecology Managementmode’s subsystems, demonstrates that it can improve the urban management’s overall level, emphasizes smarter city management integrity, believing that urban system’s optimization is based on each subsystem being optimized, attaching the importance to elements, structure, and balance between each subsystem and between internal elements. Through the establishment of the smarter city Ecology Managementmodel’s conceptual model and theoretical argumentation, it provides a theoretical basis and technical guidance to that model’s innovation.

Passing the Test: Ecological Regression Analysis in the Los Angeles County Case and Beyond.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lichtman, Allan J.

1991-01-01

Statistical analysis of racially polarized voting prepared for the Garza v County of Los Angeles (California) (1990) voting rights case is reviewed to demonstrate that ecological regression is a flexible, robust technique that illuminates the reality of ethnic voting, and superior to the neighborhood model supported by the defendants. (SLD)

Revisiting the Affect Regulation Model of Binge Eating: A Meta-Analysis of Studies Using Ecological Momentary Assessment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Haedt-Matt, Alissa A.; Keel, Pamela K.

2011-01-01

The affect regulation model of binge eating, which posits that patients binge eat to reduce negative affect (NA), has received support from cross-sectional and laboratory-based studies. Ecological momentary assessment (EMA) involves momentary ratings and repeated assessments over time and is ideally suited to identify temporal antecedents and…

A modeling approach to assess coastal management effects on benthic habitat quality: A case study on coastal defense and navigability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cozzoli, Francesco; Smolders, Sven; Eelkema, Menno; Ysebaert, Tom; Escaravage, Vincent; Temmerman, Stijn; Meire, Patrick; Herman, Peter M. J.; Bouma, Tjeerd J.

2017-01-01

The natural coastal hydrodynamics and morphology worldwide is altered by human interventions such as embankments, shipping and dredging, which may have consequences for ecosystem functionality. To ensure long-term ecological sustainability, requires capability to predict long-term large-scale ecological effects of altered hydromorphology. As empirical data sets at relevant scales are missing, there is need for integrating ecological modeling with physical modeling. This paper presents a case study showing the long-term, large-scale macrozoobenthic community response to two contrasting human alterations of the hydromorphological habitat: deepening of estuarine channels to enhance navigability (Westerschelde) vs. realization of a storm surge barrier to enhance coastal safety (Oosterschelde). A multidisciplinary integration of empirical data and modeling of estuarine morphology, hydrodynamics and benthic ecology was used to reconstruct the hydrological evolution and resulting long-term (50 years) large-scale ecological trends for both estuaries over the last. Our model indicated that hydrodynamic alterations following the deepening of the Westerschelde had negative implications for benthic life, while the realization of the Oosterschelde storm surge barriers had mixed and habitat-dependent responses, that also include unexpected improvement of environmental quality. Our analysis illustrates long-term trends in the natural community caused by opposing management strategies. The divergent human pressures on the Oosterschelde and Westerschelde are examples of what could happen in a near future for many global coastal ecosystems. The comparative analysis of the two basins is a valuable source of information to understand (and communicate) the future ecological consequences of human coastal development.

[System construction of early warning for ecological security at cultural and natural heritage mixed sites and its application: a case study of Wuyishan Scenery District].

PubMed

You, Wei-Bin; He, Dong-Jin; Qin, De-Hua; Ji, Zhi-Rong; Wu, Li-Yun; Yu, Jian-An; Chen, Bing-Rong; Tan, Yong

2014-05-01

This paper proposed a new concept of ecological security for protection by a comprehensive analysis of the contents and standards of world heritage sites. A frame concept model named "Pressure-State-Control" for early warning of ecological security at world heritage mixed sites was constructed and evaluation indicators of this frame were also selected. Wuyishan Scenery District was chosen for a case study, which has been severely disturbed by natural and artificial factors. Based on the frame model of "Pressure-State-Control" and by employing extension analysis, the matter-element model was established to assess the ecological security status of this cultural and natural world heritage mixed site. The results showed that the accuracy of ecological security early warning reached 84%. Early warning rank was I level (no alert status) in 1997 and 2009, but that in 2009 had a higher possibility to convert into II level. Likewise, the early-warning indices of sensitive ranks were different between 1997 and 2009. Population density, population growth rate, area index for tea garden, cultivated land owned per capita, level of drought, and investment for ecological and environmental construction were the main limiting factors to hinder the development of ecological security from 2009 to future. In general, the status of Wuyishan Scenery District ecological security was relatively good and considered as no alert level, while risk conditions also existed in terms of a few early-warning indicators. We still need to pay more attention to serious alert indicators and adopt effective prevention and control measures to maintain a good ecological security status of this heritage site.

Effect of Methodological and Ecological Approaches on Heterogeneity of Nest-Site Selection of a Long-Lived Vulture

PubMed Central

Moreno-Opo, Rubén; Fernández-Olalla, Mariana; Margalida, Antoni; Arredondo, Ángel; Guil, Francisco

2012-01-01

The application of scientific-based conservation measures requires that sampling methodologies in studies modelling similar ecological aspects produce comparable results making easier their interpretation. We aimed to show how the choice of different methodological and ecological approaches can affect conclusions in nest-site selection studies along different Palearctic meta-populations of an indicator species. First, a multivariate analysis of the variables affecting nest-site selection in a breeding colony of cinereous vulture (Aegypius monachus) in central Spain was performed. Then, a meta-analysis was applied to establish how methodological and habitat-type factors determine differences and similarities in the results obtained by previous studies that have modelled the forest breeding habitat of the species. Our results revealed patterns in nesting-habitat modelling by the cinereous vulture throughout its whole range: steep and south-facing slopes, great cover of large trees and distance to human activities were generally selected. The ratio and situation of the studied plots (nests/random), the use of plots vs. polygons as sampling units and the number of years of data set determined the variability explained by the model. Moreover, a greater size of the breeding colony implied that ecological and geomorphological variables at landscape level were more influential. Additionally, human activities affected in greater proportion to colonies situated in Mediterranean forests. For the first time, a meta-analysis regarding the factors determining nest-site selection heterogeneity for a single species at broad scale was achieved. It is essential to homogenize and coordinate experimental design in modelling the selection of species' ecological requirements in order to avoid that differences in results among studies would be due to methodological heterogeneity. This would optimize best conservation and management practices for habitats and species in a global context. PMID:22413023

The spatial optimism model research for the regional land use based on the ecological constraint

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

XU, K.; Lu, J.; Chi, Y.

2013-12-01

The study focuses on the Yunnan-Guizhou (i.e. Yunnan province and Guizhou province) Plateau in China. Since the Yunnan-Guizhou region consists of closed basins, the land resources suiting for development are in a shortage, and the ecological problems in the area are quite complicated. In such circumstance, in order to get the applicable basins area and distribution, certain spatial optimism model is needed. In this research, Digital Elevation Model (DEM) and land use data are used to get the boundary rules of the basins distribution. Furthermore, natural risks, ecological risks and human-made ecological risks are integrated to be analyzed. Finally, the spatial overlay analysis method is used to model the developable basins area and distribution for industries and urbanization. The study process can be divided into six steps. First, basins and their distribution need to be recognized. In this way, the DEM data is used to extract the geomorphology characteristics. The plaque regions with gradient under eight degrees are selected. Among these regions, the total area of the plaque with the area above 8 km2 is 54,000 km2, 10% of the total area. These regions are selected to the potential application of industries and urbanization. In the later five steps, analyses are aimed at these regions. Secondly, the natural risks are analyzed. The conditions of the earthquake, debris flow and rainstorm and flood are combined to classify the natural risks. Thirdly, the ecological risks are analyzed containing the ecological sensibility and ecosystem service function importance. According to the regional ecologic features, the sensibility containing the soil erosion, acid rain, stony desertification and survive condition factors is derived and classified according to the medium value to get the ecological sensibility partition. The ecosystem service function importance is classified and divided considering the biology variation protection and water conservation factors. The fourth step is the man-made ecological risks analysis. The mineral resources exploitation, forest resources developing, farming, tourism, industrialization and urbanization are integrated to derive the potential ecological risks made by human activities. The risks weight are given using the expert marking method, Then the man-made ecological risks are classified and divided among the regions. In the fifth step, the comprehensive ecological controlling divisions are obtained based on the above factors classification. At last, the applicable regions and distribution are derived using the spatial overlay analysis removing the higher ecological risks area and considering the land use status. In conclusion, based on the above comprehensive analyses, the applicable basins area are 2,575 km2 and 1,011 km2 respectively for the Yunnan province and Guizhou province. The amount is less than 1% of the perspective province total area focusing on the central part of the two provinces.

Machine Learning Biogeographic Processes from Biotic Patterns: A New Trait-Dependent Dispersal and Diversification Model with Model Choice By Simulation-Trained Discriminant Analysis.

PubMed

Sukumaran, Jeet; Economo, Evan P; Lacey Knowles, L

2016-05-01

Current statistical biogeographical analysis methods are limited in the ways ecology can be related to the processes of diversification and geographical range evolution, requiring conflation of geography and ecology, and/or assuming ecologies that are uniform across all lineages and invariant in time. This precludes the possibility of studying a broad class of macroevolutionary biogeographical theories that relate geographical and species histories through lineage-specific ecological and evolutionary dynamics, such as taxon cycle theory. Here we present a new model that generates phylogenies under a complex of superpositioned geographical range evolution, trait evolution, and diversification processes that can communicate with each other. We present a likelihood-free method of inference under our model using discriminant analysis of principal components of summary statistics calculated on phylogenies, with the discriminant functions trained on data generated by simulations under our model. This approach of model selection by classification of empirical data with respect to data generated under training models is shown to be efficient, robust, and performs well over a broad range of parameter space defined by the relative rates of dispersal, trait evolution, and diversification processes. We apply our method to a case study of the taxon cycle, that is testing for habitat and trophic level constraints in the dispersal regimes of the Wallacean avifaunal radiation. ©The Author(s) 2015. Published by Oxford University Press, on behalf of the Society of Systematic Biologists. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

NexGen PVAs: Incorporating Eco-Evolutionary Processes into Population Viability Models

EPA Science Inventory

We examine how the integration of evolutionary and ecological processes in population dynamics – an emerging framework in ecology – could be incorporated into population viability analysis (PVA). Driven by parallel, complementary advances in population genomics and computational ...

Work, family and life-course fit

PubMed Central

Moen, Phyllis; Kelly, Erin; Huang, Qinlei

2008-01-01

This study moves from “work-family” to a multi-dimensional “life-course fit” construct (employees’ cognitive assessments of resources, resource deficits, and resource demands), using a combined work-family, demands-control and ecology of the life course framing. It examined (1) impacts of job and home ecological systems on fit dimensions, and (2) whether control over work time predicted and mediated life-course fit outcomes. Using cluster analysis of survey data on a sample of 917 white-collar employees from Best Buy headquarters, we identified four job ecologies (corresponding to the job demands-job control model) and five home ecologies (theorizing an analogous home demands-home control model). Job and home ecologies predicted fit dimensions in an additive, not interactive, fashion. Employees’ work-time control predicted every life-course fit dimension and partially mediated effects of job ecologies, organizational tenure, and job category. PMID:19430546

Ecological connectivity networks in rapidly expanding cities.

PubMed

Nor, Amal Najihah M; Corstanje, Ron; Harris, Jim A; Grafius, Darren R; Siriwardena, Gavin M

2017-06-01

Urban expansion increases fragmentation of the landscape. In effect, fragmentation decreases connectivity, causes green space loss and impacts upon the ecology and function of green space. Restoration of the functionality of green space often requires restoring the ecological connectivity of this green space within the city matrix. However, identifying ecological corridors that integrate different structural and functional connectivity of green space remains vague. Assessing connectivity for developing an ecological network by using efficient models is essential to improve these networks under rapid urban expansion. This paper presents a novel methodological approach to assess and model connectivity for the Eurasian tree sparrow ( Passer montanus ) and Yellow-vented bulbul ( Pycnonotus goiavier ) in three cities (Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia; Jakarta, Indonesia and Metro Manila, Philippines). The approach identifies potential priority corridors for ecological connectivity networks. The study combined circuit models, connectivity analysis and least-cost models to identify potential corridors by integrating structure and function of green space patches to provide reliable ecological connectivity network models in the cities. Relevant parameters such as landscape resistance and green space structure (vegetation density, patch size and patch distance) were derived from an expert and literature-based approach based on the preference of bird behaviour. The integrated models allowed the assessment of connectivity for both species using different measures of green space structure revealing the potential corridors and least-cost pathways for both bird species at the patch sites. The implementation of improvements to the identified corridors could increase the connectivity of green space. This study provides examples of how combining models can contribute to the improvement of ecological networks in rapidly expanding cities and demonstrates the usefulness of such models for biodiversity conservation and urban planning.

Asymmetric ecological conditions favor Red-Queen type of continued evolution over stasis.

PubMed

Nordbotten, Jan Martin; Stenseth, Nils C

2016-02-16

Four decades ago, Leigh Van Valen presented the Red Queen's hypothesis to account for evolution of species within a multispecies ecological community [Van Valen L (1973) Evol Theory 1(1):1-30]. The overall conclusion of Van Valen's analysis was that evolution would continue even in the absence of abiotic perturbations. Stenseth and Maynard Smith presented in 1984 [Stenseth NC, Maynard Smith J (1984) Evolution 38(4):870-880] a model for the Red Queen's hypothesis showing that both Red-Queen type of continuous evolution and stasis could result from a model with biotically driven evolution. However, although that contribution demonstrated that both evolutionary outcomes were possible, it did not identify which ecological conditions would lead to each of these evolutionary outcomes. Here, we provide, using a simple, yet general population-biologically founded eco-evolutionary model, such analytically derived conditions: Stasis will predominantly emerge whenever the ecological system contains only symmetric ecological interactions, whereas both Red-Queen and stasis type of evolution may result if the ecological interactions are asymmetrical, and more likely so with increasing degree of asymmetry in the ecological system (i.e., the more trophic interactions, host-pathogen interactions, and the like there are [i.e., +/- type of ecological interactions as well as asymmetric competitive (-/-) and mutualistic (+/+) ecological interactions]). In the special case of no between-generational genetic variance, our results also predict dynamics within these types of purely ecological systems.

Null Models for Everyone: A Two-Step Approach to Teaching Null Model Analysis of Biological Community Structure

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McCabe, Declan J.; Knight, Evelyn J.

2016-01-01

Since being introduced by Connor and Simberloff in response to Diamond's assembly rules, null model analysis has been a controversial tool in community ecology. Despite being commonly used in the primary literature, null model analysis has not featured prominently in general textbooks. Complexity of approaches along with difficulty in interpreting…

The Spatial-Temporal Analysis of Ecological Environment of Red Bed Hills in East Sichuan - Taking LU County as a Case

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, H.; Liu, Y.; Wang, X.; Liu, J.

2018-04-01

Good ecological environment is the foundation of human existence and development, the development of society and economy must be based on the premise of maintaining the stability and balance of the ecological environment. RS and GIS technology are used in this paper while the red-bed hills of Sichuan Province-Lu County have been taken as an example. According to the ecological environment characteristics of the study areas and the principle of choosing evaluation index, this paper selected six evaluation indicators (elevation, slope, aspect, vegetation cover, land use, gully density) to establish evaluation index system of ecological environment of Lu County. This paper determine the weight of each evaluation index by AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) and establishes a comprehensive evaluation model by the weighted comprehensive evaluation method. This model is used to divide the ecological environment quality of Lu County into excellent, good, middle, poor and worse, and to analyze the ecological environment change in Lu County in recent ten years.

Methods and Tools for Evaluating Uncertainty in Ecological Models: A Survey

EPA Science Inventory

Poster presented at the Ecological Society of America Meeting. Ecologists are familiar with a variety of uncertainty techniques, particularly in the intersection of maximum likelihood parameter estimation and Monte Carlo analysis techniques, as well as a recent increase in Baye...

Ecological hierarchies and self-organisation - Pattern analysis, modelling and process integration across scales

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reuter, H.; Jopp, F.; Blanco-Moreno, J. M.; Damgaard, C.; Matsinos, Y.; DeAngelis, D.L.

2010-01-01

A continuing discussion in applied and theoretical ecology focuses on the relationship of different organisational levels and on how ecological systems interact across scales. We address principal approaches to cope with complex across-level issues in ecology by applying elements of hierarchy theory and the theory of complex adaptive systems. A top-down approach, often characterised by the use of statistical techniques, can be applied to analyse large-scale dynamics and identify constraints exerted on lower levels. Current developments are illustrated with examples from the analysis of within-community spatial patterns and large-scale vegetation patterns. A bottom-up approach allows one to elucidate how interactions of individuals shape dynamics at higher levels in a self-organisation process; e.g., population development and community composition. This may be facilitated by various modelling tools, which provide the distinction between focal levels and resulting properties. For instance, resilience in grassland communities has been analysed with a cellular automaton approach, and the driving forces in rodent population oscillations have been identified with an agent-based model. Both modelling tools illustrate the principles of analysing higher level processes by representing the interactions of basic components.The focus of most ecological investigations on either top-down or bottom-up approaches may not be appropriate, if strong cross-scale relationships predominate. Here, we propose an 'across-scale-approach', closely interweaving the inherent potentials of both approaches. This combination of analytical and synthesising approaches will enable ecologists to establish a more coherent access to cross-level interactions in ecological systems. ?? 2010 Gesellschaft f??r ??kologie.

Sensitivity analysis of reactive ecological dynamics.

PubMed

Verdy, Ariane; Caswell, Hal

2008-08-01

Ecological systems with asymptotically stable equilibria may exhibit significant transient dynamics following perturbations. In some cases, these transient dynamics include the possibility of excursions away from the equilibrium before the eventual return; systems that exhibit such amplification of perturbations are called reactive. Reactivity is a common property of ecological systems, and the amplification can be large and long-lasting. The transient response of a reactive ecosystem depends on the parameters of the underlying model. To investigate this dependence, we develop sensitivity analyses for indices of transient dynamics (reactivity, the amplification envelope, and the optimal perturbation) in both continuous- and discrete-time models written in matrix form. The sensitivity calculations require expressions, some of them new, for the derivatives of equilibria, eigenvalues, singular values, and singular vectors, obtained using matrix calculus. Sensitivity analysis provides a quantitative framework for investigating the mechanisms leading to transient growth. We apply the methodology to a predator-prey model and a size-structured food web model. The results suggest predator-driven and prey-driven mechanisms for transient amplification resulting from multispecies interactions.

Acquisition and production of skilled behavior in dynamic decision-making tasks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kirlik, Alex

1992-01-01

Detailed summaries of two NASA-funded research projects are provided. The first project was an ecological task analysis of the Star Cruiser model. Star Cruiser is a psychological model designed to test a subject's level of cognitive activity. Ecological task analysis is used as a framework to predict the types of cognitive activity required to achieve productive behavior and to suggest how interfaces can be manipulated to alleviate certain types of cognitive demands. The second project is presented in the form of a thesis for the Masters Degree. The thesis discusses the modeling of decision-making through the use of neural network and genetic-algorithm machine learning technologies.

Modeling forest bird species' likelihood of occurrence in Utah with Forest Inventory and Analysis and Landfire map products and ecologically based pseudo-absence points

Treesearch

Phoebe L. Zarnetske; Thomas C., Jr. Edwards; Gretchen G. Moisen

2007-01-01

Estimating species likelihood of occurrence across extensive landscapes is a powerful management tool. Unfortunately, available occurrence data for landscape-scale modeling is often lacking and usually only in the form of observed presences. Ecologically based pseudo-absence points were generated from within habitat envelopes to accompany presence-only data in habitat...

The role of mesocosm studies in ecological risk analysis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Boyle, Terence P.; Fairchild, James F.

1997-01-01

Mesocosms have been primarily used as research tools for the evaluation of the fate and effects of xenobiotic chemicals at the population, community, and ecosystem levels of biological organization. This paper provides suggestions for future applications of mesocosm research. Attention should be given to the configuration of mesocosm parameters to explicitly study regional questions of ecological interest. The initial physical, chemical, and biological conditions within mesocosms should be considered as factors shaping the final results of experiments. Certain fundamental questions such as the ecological inertia and resilience of systems with different initial ecological properties should be addressed. Researchers should develop closer working relationships with mathematical modelers in linking computer models to the outcomes of mesocosm studies. Mesocosm tests, linked with models, could enable managers and regulators to forecast the regional consequences of chemicals released into the environment.

An ecological compensation standard based on emergy theory for the Xiao Honghe River Basin.

PubMed

Guan, Xinjian; Chen, Moyu; Hu, Caihong

2015-01-01

The calculation of an ecological compensation standard is an important, but also difficult aspect of current ecological compensation research. In this paper, the factors affecting the ecological-economic system in the Xiao Honghe River Basin, China, including the flow of energy, materials, and money, were calculated using the emergy analysis method. A consideration of the relationships between the ecological-economic value of water resources and ecological compensation allowed the ecological-economic value to be calculated. On this basis, the amount of water needed for dilution was used to develop a calculation model for the ecological compensation standard of the basin. Using the Xiao Honghe River Basin as an example, the value of water resources and the ecological compensation standard were calculated using this model according to the emission levels of the main pollutant in the basin, chemical oxygen demand. The compensation standards calculated for the research areas in Xipin, Shangcai, Pingyu, and Xincai were 34.91 yuan/m3, 32.97 yuan/m3, 35.99 yuan/m3, and 34.70 yuan/m3, respectively, and such research output would help to generate and support new approaches to the long-term ecological protection of the basin and improvement of the ecological compensation system.

[Analysis on sustainable development of marine economy in Jiangsu Province based on marine ecological footprint correction model].

PubMed

Yang, Shan; Wang, Yu-ting

2011-03-01

Based on the theories and methods of ecological footprint, the concept of marine ecological footprint was proposed. According to the characteristics of marine environment in Jiangsu Province, five sub-models of marine ecological footprints, including fishery, transporation, marine engineering construction, marine energy, and tidal flat, were constructed. The equilibrium factors of the five marine types were determined by using improved entropy method, and the marine footprints and capacities in Jiangsu Province from 2000 to 2008 were calculated and analyzed. In 2000-2008, the marine ecology footprint per capita in Jiangsu Province increased nearly seven times, from 36.90 hm2 to 252.94 hm2, and the ecological capacity per capita grew steadily, from 105.01 hm2 to 185.49 hm2. In 2000, the marine environment in the Province was in a state of ecological surplus, and the marine economy was in a weak sustainable development state. Since 2004, the marine ecological environment deteriorated sharply, with ecological deficit up to 109660.5 hm2, and the sustainability of marine economy declined. The high ecological footprint of fishery was the main reason for the ecological deficit. Tidal flat was the important reserve resource for the sustainable development of marine economy in Jiangsu Province.

75 years of dryland science: Trends and gaps in arid ecology literature.

PubMed

Greenville, Aaron C; Dickman, Chris R; Wardle, Glenda M

2017-01-01

Growth in the publication of scientific articles is occurring at an exponential rate, prompting a growing need to synthesise information in a timely manner to combat urgent environmental problems and guide future research. Here, we undertake a topic analysis of dryland literature over the last 75 years (8218 articles) to identify areas in arid ecology that are well studied and topics that are emerging. Four topics-wetlands, mammal ecology, litter decomposition and spatial modelling, were identified as 'hot topics' that showed higher than average growth in publications from 1940 to 2015. Five topics-remote sensing, climate, habitat and spatial, agriculture and soils-microbes, were identified as 'cold topics', with lower than average growth over the survey period, but higher than average numbers of publications. Topics in arid ecology clustered into seven broad groups on word-based similarity. These groups ranged from mammal ecology and population genetics, broad-scale management and ecosystem modelling, plant ecology, agriculture and ecophysiology, to populations and paleoclimate. These patterns may reflect trends in the field of ecology more broadly. We also identified two broad research gaps in arid ecology: population genetics, and habitat and spatial research. Collaborations between population genetics and ecologists and investigations of ecological processes across spatial scales would contribute profitably to the advancement of arid ecology and to ecology more broadly.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

R. L. VanHorn; N. L. Hampton; R. C. Morris

This document presents reference material for conducting screening level ecological risk assessments (SLERAs)for the waste area groups (WAGs) at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory. Included in this document are discussions of the objectives of and processes for conducting SLERAs. The Environmental Protection Agency ecological risk assessment framework is closely followed. Guidance for site characterization, stressor characterization, ecological effects, pathways of contaminant migration, the conceptual site model, assessment endpoints, measurement endpoints, analysis guidance, and risk characterization are included.

Ecological efficiency in China and its influencing factors-a super-efficient SBM metafrontier-Malmquist-Tobit model study.

PubMed

Ma, Xiaojun; Wang, Changxin; Yu, Yuanbo; Li, Yudong; Dong, Biying; Zhang, Xinyu; Niu, Xueqi; Yang, Qian; Chen, Ruimin; Li, Yifan; Gu, Yihan

2018-05-15

Ecological problem is one of the core issues that restrain China's economic development at present, and it is urgently needed to be solved properly and effectively. Based on panel data from 30 regions, this paper uses a super efficiency slack-based measure (SBM) model that introduces the undesirable output to calculate the ecological efficiency, and then uses traditional and metafrontier-Malmquist index method to study regional change trends and technology gap ratios (TGRs). Finally, the Tobit regression and principal component analysis methods are used to analysis the main factors affecting eco-efficiency and impact degree. The results show that about 60% of China's provinces have effective eco-efficiency, and the overall ecological efficiency of China is at the superior middling level, but there is a serious imbalance among different provinces and regions. Ecological efficiency has an obvious spatial cluster effect. There are differences among regional TGR values. Most regions show a downward trend and the phenomenon of focusing on economic development at the expense of ecological protection still exists. Expansion of opening to the outside, increases in R&D spending, and improvement of population urbanization rate have positive effects on eco-efficiency. Blind economic expansion, increases of industrial structure, and proportion of energy consumption have negative effects on eco-efficiency.

Asymmetric ecological conditions favor Red-Queen type of continued evolution over stasis

PubMed Central

Nordbotten, Jan Martin; Stenseth, Nils C.

2016-01-01

Four decades ago, Leigh Van Valen presented the Red Queen’s hypothesis to account for evolution of species within a multispecies ecological community [Van Valen L (1973) Evol Theory 1(1):1–30]. The overall conclusion of Van Valen’s analysis was that evolution would continue even in the absence of abiotic perturbations. Stenseth and Maynard Smith presented in 1984 [Stenseth NC, Maynard Smith J (1984) Evolution 38(4):870–880] a model for the Red Queen’s hypothesis showing that both Red-Queen type of continuous evolution and stasis could result from a model with biotically driven evolution. However, although that contribution demonstrated that both evolutionary outcomes were possible, it did not identify which ecological conditions would lead to each of these evolutionary outcomes. Here, we provide, using a simple, yet general population-biologically founded eco-evolutionary model, such analytically derived conditions: Stasis will predominantly emerge whenever the ecological system contains only symmetric ecological interactions, whereas both Red-Queen and stasis type of evolution may result if the ecological interactions are asymmetrical, and more likely so with increasing degree of asymmetry in the ecological system (i.e., the more trophic interactions, host–pathogen interactions, and the like there are [i.e., +/− type of ecological interactions as well as asymmetric competitive (−/−) and mutualistic (+/+) ecological interactions]). In the special case of no between-generational genetic variance, our results also predict dynamics within these types of purely ecological systems. PMID:26831108

Development of a zoning-based environmental-ecological-coupled model for lakes to assess lake restoration effect

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Mengjia; Zou, Changxin; Zhao, Yanwei

2017-04-01

Environmental/ecological models are widely used for lake management as they provide a means to understand physical, chemical and biological processes in highly complex ecosystems. Most research focused on the development of environmental (water quality) and ecological models, separately. Limited studies were developed to couple the two models, and in these limited coupled models, a lake was regarded as a whole for analysis (i.e., considering the lake to be one well-mixed box), which was appropriate for small-scale lakes and was not sufficient to capture spatial variations within middle-scale or large-scale lakes. This paper seeks to establish a zoning-based environmental-ecological-coupled model for a lake. The Baiyangdian Lake, the largest freshwater lake in Northern China, was adopted as the study case. The coupled lake models including a hydrodynamics and water quality model established by MIKE21 and a compartmental ecological model used STELLA software have been established for middle-sized Baiyangdian Lake to realize the simulation of spatial variations of ecological conditions. On the basis of the flow field distribution results generated by MIKE21 hydrodynamics model, four water area zones were used as an example for compartmental ecological model calibration and validation. The results revealed that the developed coupled lake models can reasonably reflected the changes of the key state variables although there remain some state variables that are not well represented by the model due to the low quality of field monitoring data. Monitoring sites in a compartment may not be representative of the water quality and ecological conditions in the entire compartment even though that is the intention of compartment-based model design. There was only one ecological observation from a single monitoring site for some periods. This single-measurement issue may cause large discrepancies particularly when sampled site is not representative of the whole compartment. The coupled models have been applied to simulate the spatial variation trends of ecological condition under ecological water supplement as an example to reflect the application effect in lake restoration and management. The simulation results indicate that the models can provide a useful tool for lake restoration and management. The simulated spatial variation trends can provide a foundation for establishing permissible ranges for a selected set of water quality indices for a series of management measures such as watershed pollution load control and ecological water transfer. Meanwhile, the coupled models can help us to understand processes taking place and the relations of interaction between components in the lake ecosystem and external conditions. Taken together, the proposed models we established show some promising applications as middle-scale or large-scale lake management tools for pollution load control and ecological water transfer. These tools quantify the implications of proposed future water management decisions.

A brief introduction to mixed effects modelling and multi-model inference in ecology

PubMed Central

Donaldson, Lynda; Correa-Cano, Maria Eugenia; Goodwin, Cecily E.D.

2018-01-01

The use of linear mixed effects models (LMMs) is increasingly common in the analysis of biological data. Whilst LMMs offer a flexible approach to modelling a broad range of data types, ecological data are often complex and require complex model structures, and the fitting and interpretation of such models is not always straightforward. The ability to achieve robust biological inference requires that practitioners know how and when to apply these tools. Here, we provide a general overview of current methods for the application of LMMs to biological data, and highlight the typical pitfalls that can be encountered in the statistical modelling process. We tackle several issues regarding methods of model selection, with particular reference to the use of information theory and multi-model inference in ecology. We offer practical solutions and direct the reader to key references that provide further technical detail for those seeking a deeper understanding. This overview should serve as a widely accessible code of best practice for applying LMMs to complex biological problems and model structures, and in doing so improve the robustness of conclusions drawn from studies investigating ecological and evolutionary questions. PMID:29844961

A brief introduction to mixed effects modelling and multi-model inference in ecology.

PubMed

Harrison, Xavier A; Donaldson, Lynda; Correa-Cano, Maria Eugenia; Evans, Julian; Fisher, David N; Goodwin, Cecily E D; Robinson, Beth S; Hodgson, David J; Inger, Richard

2018-01-01

The use of linear mixed effects models (LMMs) is increasingly common in the analysis of biological data. Whilst LMMs offer a flexible approach to modelling a broad range of data types, ecological data are often complex and require complex model structures, and the fitting and interpretation of such models is not always straightforward. The ability to achieve robust biological inference requires that practitioners know how and when to apply these tools. Here, we provide a general overview of current methods for the application of LMMs to biological data, and highlight the typical pitfalls that can be encountered in the statistical modelling process. We tackle several issues regarding methods of model selection, with particular reference to the use of information theory and multi-model inference in ecology. We offer practical solutions and direct the reader to key references that provide further technical detail for those seeking a deeper understanding. This overview should serve as a widely accessible code of best practice for applying LMMs to complex biological problems and model structures, and in doing so improve the robustness of conclusions drawn from studies investigating ecological and evolutionary questions.

Computational ecology as an emerging science

PubMed Central

Petrovskii, Sergei; Petrovskaya, Natalia

2012-01-01

It has long been recognized that numerical modelling and computer simulations can be used as a powerful research tool to understand, and sometimes to predict, the tendencies and peculiarities in the dynamics of populations and ecosystems. It has been, however, much less appreciated that the context of modelling and simulations in ecology is essentially different from those that normally exist in other natural sciences. In our paper, we review the computational challenges arising in modern ecology in the spirit of computational mathematics, i.e. with our main focus on the choice and use of adequate numerical methods. Somewhat paradoxically, the complexity of ecological problems does not always require the use of complex computational methods. This paradox, however, can be easily resolved if we recall that application of sophisticated computational methods usually requires clear and unambiguous mathematical problem statement as well as clearly defined benchmark information for model validation. At the same time, many ecological problems still do not have mathematically accurate and unambiguous description, and available field data are often very noisy, and hence it can be hard to understand how the results of computations should be interpreted from the ecological viewpoint. In this scientific context, computational ecology has to deal with a new paradigm: conventional issues of numerical modelling such as convergence and stability become less important than the qualitative analysis that can be provided with the help of computational techniques. We discuss this paradigm by considering computational challenges arising in several specific ecological applications. PMID:23565336

Predicting ecological roles in the rhizosphere using metabolome and transportome modeling

DOE PAGES

Larsen, Peter E.; Collart, Frank R.; Dai, Yang; ...

2015-09-02

The ability to obtain complete genome sequences from bacteria in environmental samples, such as soil samples from the rhizosphere, has highlighted the microbial diversity and complexity of environmental communities. New algorithms to analyze genome sequence information in the context of community structure are needed to enhance our understanding of the specific ecological roles of these organisms in soil environments. We present a machine learning approach using sequenced Pseudomonad genomes coupled with outputs of metabolic and transportomic computational models for identifying the most predictive molecular mechanisms indicative of a Pseudomonad’s ecological role in the rhizosphere: a biofilm, biocontrol agent, promoter ofmore » plant growth, or plant pathogen. Computational predictions of ecological niche were highly accurate overall with models trained on transportomic model output being the most accurate (Leave One Out Validation F-scores between 0.82 and 0.89). The strongest predictive molecular mechanism features for rhizosphere ecological niche overlap with many previously reported analyses of Pseudomonad interactions in the rhizosphere, suggesting that this approach successfully informs a system-scale level understanding of how Pseudomonads sense and interact with their environments. The observation that an organism’s transportome is highly predictive of its ecological niche is a novel discovery and may have implications in our understanding microbial ecology. The framework developed here can be generalized to the analysis of any bacteria across a wide range of environments and ecological niches making this approach a powerful tool for providing insights into functional predictions from bacterial genomic data.« less

Predicting Ecological Roles in the Rhizosphere Using Metabolome and Transportome Modeling

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Larsen, Peter E.; Collart, Frank R.; Dai, Yang

2015-09-02

The ability to obtain complete genome sequences from bacteria in environmental samples, such as soil samples from the rhizosphere, has highlighted the microbial diversity and complexity of environmental communities. However, new algorithms to analyze genome sequence information in the context of community structure are needed to enhance our understanding of the specific ecological roles of these organisms in soil environments. We present a machine learning approach using sequenced Pseudomonad genomes coupled with outputs of metabolic and transportomic computational models for identifying the most predictive molecular mechanisms indicative of a Pseudomonad's ecological role in the rhizosphere: a biofilm, biocontrol agent, promotermore » of plant growth, or plant pathogen. Computational predictions of ecological niche were highly accurate overall with models trained on transportomic model output being the most accurate (Leave One Out Validation F-scores between 0.82 and 0.89). The strongest predictive molecular mechanism features for rhizosphere ecological niche overlap with many previously reported analyses of Pseudomonad interactions in the rhizosphere, suggesting that this approach successfully informs a system-scale level understanding of how Pseudomonads sense and interact with their environments. The observation that an organism's transportome is highly predictive of its ecological niche is a novel discovery and may have implications in our understanding microbial ecology. The framework developed here can be generalized to the analysis of any bacteria across a wide range of environments and ecological niches making this approach a powerful tool for providing insights into functional predictions from bacterial genomic data.« less

Brazilian Soybean Production: Emergy Analysis with an Expanded Scope

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ortega, Enrique; Cavalett, Otavio; Bonifacio, Robert; Watanabe, Marcos

2005-01-01

This article offers the results of emergy analysis used to evaluate four different soybean production systems in Brazil that were divided into two main categories: biological models (organic and ecological farms) and industrial models (green-revolution chemical farms and herbicide with no-tillage farms). The biological models show better…

Gene expression profiling--Opening the black box of plant ecosystem responses to global change

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Leakey, A.D.B.; Ainsworth, E.A.; Bernard, S.M.

The use of genomic techniques to address ecological questions is emerging as the field of genomic ecology. Experimentation under environmentally realistic conditions to investigate the molecular response of plants to meaningful changes in growth conditions and ecological interactions is the defining feature of genomic ecology. Since the impact of global change factors on plant performance are mediated by direct effects at the molecular, biochemical and physiological scales, gene expression analysis promises important advances in understanding factors that have previously been consigned to the 'black box' of unknown mechanism. Various tools and approaches are available for assessing gene expression in modelmore » and non-model species as part of global change biology studies. Each approach has its own unique advantages and constraints. A first generation of genomic ecology studies in managed ecosystems and mesocosms have provided a testbed for the approach and have begun to reveal how the experimental design and data analysis of gene expression studies can be tailored for use in an ecological context.« less

A socio-ecological analysis of Ethiopian immigrants' interactions with the Israeli healthcare system and its policy and service implications.

PubMed

Shtarkshall, Ronny A; Baynesan, Fassil; Feldman, Becca S

2009-10-01

Despite receiving full medical care and many social services, many Ethiopian immigrants in Israel feel frustrated, and even alienated, by the care they receive. This study uses a qualitative approach to explore the obstacles Ethiopian immigrants face regarding effective health seeking behavior and optimal interactions with healthcare providers in Israel. We gained a three-cornered perspective by conducting semi-structured interviews with healthcare providers, immigrants, and interpreters who mediate between the two. An ecological system or socio-ecological model guided the data analysis. It allowed organizing the varied and complex relationship between the factors that influence healthcare delivery and receipt among this population. The advanced analysis of our results delineated four themes which we grouped into two domains: the cultural divide and the interpreters. Within each of these themes, we explored influences on health or healthcare at each level of the socio-ecological model. We demonstrated that the problems surrounding health seeking behaviors and receiving treatment stem mainly from a cultural divide. This cultural incongruity and its effects are apparent at multiple levels of the ecological model and must be recognized and addressed programmatically at these levels. Necessary program and service modifications include that cultural mediation become an integral part of health personnel's training for healthcare delivery and a necessary criterion for good practices. We recommend that professionals from within the health system be trained to act as interpreters. Lastly, the integration of traditional healers into the allopathic health system should be considered. These modifications require a system-wide change in policy, structure of services, and practices.

A methodology for eliciting, representing, and analysing stakeholder knowledge for decision making on complex socio-ecological systems: from cognitive maps to agent-based models.

PubMed

Elsawah, Sondoss; Guillaume, Joseph H A; Filatova, Tatiana; Rook, Josefine; Jakeman, Anthony J

2015-03-15

This paper aims to contribute to developing better ways for incorporating essential human elements in decision making processes for modelling of complex socio-ecological systems. It presents a step-wise methodology for integrating perceptions of stakeholders (qualitative) into formal simulation models (quantitative) with the ultimate goal of improving understanding and communication about decision making in complex socio-ecological systems. The methodology integrates cognitive mapping and agent based modelling. It cascades through a sequence of qualitative/soft and numerical methods comprising: (1) Interviews to elicit mental models; (2) Cognitive maps to represent and analyse individual and group mental models; (3) Time-sequence diagrams to chronologically structure the decision making process; (4) All-encompassing conceptual model of decision making, and (5) computational (in this case agent-based) Model. We apply the proposed methodology (labelled ICTAM) in a case study of viticulture irrigation in South Australia. Finally, we use strengths-weakness-opportunities-threats (SWOT) analysis to reflect on the methodology. Results show that the methodology leverages the use of cognitive mapping to capture the richness of decision making and mental models, and provides a combination of divergent and convergent analysis methods leading to the construction of an Agent Based Model. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Situations, Interaction, Process and Affordances: An Ecological Psychology Perspective.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Young, Michael F.; DePalma, Andrew; Garrett, Steven

2002-01-01

From an ecological psychology perspective, a full analysis of any learning context must acknowledge the complex nonlinear dynamics that unfold as an intentionally-driven learner interacts with a technology-based purposefully designed learning environment. A full situation model would need to incorporate constraints from the environment and also…

Intermetropolitan Differences in Family Income Inequality: An Ecological Analysis of Total White and Nonwhite Patterns in 1960

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dowdall, George W.

1977-01-01

A path model is presented which views income level and inequality as caused by ecological structure (age, racial composition, and regional location), industry mix (manufacturing and agricultural employment), and human capital factors (educational inequality and female labor force participation). (Author)

Ecological prediction with nonlinear multivariate time-frequency functional data models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Yang, Wen-Hsi; Wikle, Christopher K.; Holan, Scott H.; Wildhaber, Mark L.

2013-01-01

Time-frequency analysis has become a fundamental component of many scientific inquiries. Due to improvements in technology, the amount of high-frequency signals that are collected for ecological and other scientific processes is increasing at a dramatic rate. In order to facilitate the use of these data in ecological prediction, we introduce a class of nonlinear multivariate time-frequency functional models that can identify important features of each signal as well as the interaction of signals corresponding to the response variable of interest. Our methodology is of independent interest and utilizes stochastic search variable selection to improve model selection and performs model averaging to enhance prediction. We illustrate the effectiveness of our approach through simulation and by application to predicting spawning success of shovelnose sturgeon in the Lower Missouri River.

[Lake eutrophication modeling in considering climatic factors change: a review].

PubMed

Su, Jie-Qiong; Wang, Xuan; Yang, Zhi-Feng

2012-11-01

Climatic factors are considered as the key factors affecting the trophic status and its process in most lakes. Under the background of global climate change, to incorporate the variations of climatic factors into lake eutrophication models could provide solid technical support for the analysis of the trophic evolution trend of lake and the decision-making of lake environment management. This paper analyzed the effects of climatic factors such as air temperature, precipitation, sunlight, and atmosphere on lake eutrophication, and summarized the research results about the lake eutrophication modeling in considering in considering climatic factors change, including the modeling based on statistical analysis, ecological dynamic analysis, system analysis, and intelligent algorithm. The prospective approaches to improve the accuracy of lake eutrophication modeling with the consideration of climatic factors change were put forward, including 1) to strengthen the analysis of the mechanisms related to the effects of climatic factors change on lake trophic status, 2) to identify the appropriate simulation models to generate several scenarios under proper temporal and spatial scales and resolutions, and 3) to integrate the climatic factors change simulation, hydrodynamic model, ecological simulation, and intelligent algorithm into a general modeling system to achieve an accurate prediction of lake eutrophication under climatic change.

Coupling ecological and social network models to assess "transmission" and "contagion" of an aquatic invasive species.

PubMed

Haak, Danielle M; Fath, Brian D; Forbes, Valery E; Martin, Dustin R; Pope, Kevin L

2017-04-01

Network analysis is used to address diverse ecological, social, economic, and epidemiological questions, but few efforts have been made to combine these field-specific analyses into interdisciplinary approaches that effectively address how complex systems are interdependent and connected to one another. Identifying and understanding these cross-boundary connections improves natural resource management and promotes proactive, rather than reactive, decisions. This research had two main objectives; first, adapt the framework and approach of infectious disease network modeling so that it may be applied to the socio-ecological problem of spreading aquatic invasive species, and second, use this new coupled model to simulate the spread of the invasive Chinese mystery snail (Bellamya chinensis) in a reservoir network in Southeastern Nebraska, USA. The coupled model integrates an existing social network model of how anglers move on the landscape with new reservoir-specific ecological network models. This approach allowed us to identify 1) how angler movement among reservoirs aids in the spread of B. chinensis, 2) how B. chinensis alters energy flows within individual-reservoir food webs, and 3) a new method for assessing the spread of any number of non-native or invasive species within complex, social-ecological systems. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Coupling ecological and social network models to assess “transmission” and “contagion” of an aquatic invasive species

USGS Publications Warehouse

Haak, Danielle M.; Fath, Brian D.; Forbes, Valery E.; Martin, Dustin R.; Pope, Kevin L.

2017-01-01

Network analysis is used to address diverse ecological, social, economic, and epidemiological questions, but few efforts have been made to combine these field-specific analyses into interdisciplinary approaches that effectively address how complex systems are interdependent and connected to one another. Identifying and understanding these cross-boundary connections improves natural resource management and promotes proactive, rather than reactive, decisions. This research had two main objectives; first, adapt the framework and approach of infectious disease network modeling so that it may be applied to the socio-ecological problem of spreading aquatic invasive species, and second, use this new coupled model to simulate the spread of the invasive Chinese mystery snail (Bellamya chinensis) in a reservoir network in Southeastern Nebraska, USA. The coupled model integrates an existing social network model of how anglers move on the landscape with new reservoir-specific ecological network models. This approach allowed us to identify 1) how angler movement among reservoirs aids in the spread of B. chinensis, 2) how B. chinensisalters energy flows within individual-reservoir food webs, and 3) a new method for assessing the spread of any number of non-native or invasive species within complex, social-ecological systems.

Analysis of urban metabolic processes based on input-output method: model development and a case study for Beijing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yan; Liu, Hong; Chen, Bin; Zheng, Hongmei; Li, Yating

2014-06-01

Discovering ways in which to increase the sustainability of the metabolic processes involved in urbanization has become an urgent task for urban design and management in China. As cities are analogous to living organisms, the disorders of their metabolic processes can be regarded as the cause of "urban disease". Therefore, identification of these causes through metabolic process analysis and ecological element distribution through the urban ecosystem's compartments will be helpful. By using Beijing as an example, we have compiled monetary input-output tables from 1997, 2000, 2002, 2005, and 2007 and calculated the intensities of the embodied ecological elements to compile the corresponding implied physical input-output tables. We then divided Beijing's economy into 32 compartments and analyzed the direct and indirect ecological intensities embodied in the flows of ecological elements through urban metabolic processes. Based on the combination of input-output tables and ecological network analysis, the description of multiple ecological elements transferred among Beijing's industrial compartments and their distribution has been refined. This hybrid approach can provide a more scientific basis for management of urban resource flows. In addition, the data obtained from distribution characteristics of ecological elements may provide a basic data platform for exploring the metabolic mechanism of Beijing.

Establishing ecological networks for habitat conservation in the case of Çeşme-Urla Peninsula, Turkey.

PubMed

Hepcan, Ciğdem Coşkun; Ozkan, Mehmet Bülent

2011-03-01

The study involves the Çeşme-Urla Peninsula, where habitat fragmentation and loss, which threaten biological diversity, have become an urgent matter of concern in recent decades. The study area has been subjected to anthropogenic pressures and alterations due to ongoing and impending land uses. Therefore, ecological networks, as an appropriate way to deal with habitat fragmentation and loss and to improve ecological quality, were identified in the study area as one of the early attempts in the country to maintain its rich biodiversity. In this sense, core areas and ecological linkages as primary components of ecological networks were established on the basis of sustaining natural habitats. A GIS-based model was created to identify core areas and to facilitate the ecological connectivity. The modeling process for core areas and corridors combined 14 and 21 different variables, respectively. The variables were used as environmental inputs in the model, and all analyses were materialized in ArcGIS 9.2 using grid functions of image analysis and spatial analyst modules. As a result, six core areas and 36 corridor alternatives were materialized. Furthermore, some recommendations for the implementation and management of the proposed ecological networks were revealed and discussed.

Constraining DALECv2 using multiple data streams and ecological constraints: analysis and application

DOE PAGES

Delahaies, Sylvain; Roulstone, Ian; Nichols, Nancy

2017-07-10

We use a variational method to assimilate multiple data streams into the terrestrial ecosystem carbon cycle model DALECv2 (Data Assimilation Linked Ecosystem Carbon). Ecological and dynamical constraints have recently been introduced to constrain unresolved components of this otherwise ill-posed problem. We recast these constraints as a multivariate Gaussian distribution to incorporate them into the variational framework and we demonstrate their advantage through a linear analysis. By using an adjoint method we study a linear approximation of the inverse problem: firstly we perform a sensitivity analysis of the different outputs under consideration, and secondly we use the concept of resolution matricesmore » to diagnose the nature of the ill-posedness and evaluate regularisation strategies. We then study the non-linear problem with an application to real data. Finally, we propose a modification to the model: introducing a spin-up period provides us with a built-in formulation of some ecological constraints which facilitates the variational approach.« less

Constraining DALECv2 using multiple data streams and ecological constraints: analysis and application

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Delahaies, Sylvain; Roulstone, Ian; Nichols, Nancy

We use a variational method to assimilate multiple data streams into the terrestrial ecosystem carbon cycle model DALECv2 (Data Assimilation Linked Ecosystem Carbon). Ecological and dynamical constraints have recently been introduced to constrain unresolved components of this otherwise ill-posed problem. We recast these constraints as a multivariate Gaussian distribution to incorporate them into the variational framework and we demonstrate their advantage through a linear analysis. By using an adjoint method we study a linear approximation of the inverse problem: firstly we perform a sensitivity analysis of the different outputs under consideration, and secondly we use the concept of resolution matricesmore » to diagnose the nature of the ill-posedness and evaluate regularisation strategies. We then study the non-linear problem with an application to real data. Finally, we propose a modification to the model: introducing a spin-up period provides us with a built-in formulation of some ecological constraints which facilitates the variational approach.« less

“You Know You Are Sick, Why Do You Carry A Pregnancy Again?” Applying the Socio-Ecological Model to Understand Barriers to PMTCT Service Utilization in Western Kenya

PubMed Central

Onono, Maricianah; Kwena, Zachary; Turan, Janet; Bukusi, Elizabeth A; Cohen, Craig R; Gray, Glenda E

2015-01-01

Objective Throughout most of sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) services are readily available. However, PMTCT programs in SSA have had suboptimal performance compared to other regions of the world. The main objective of this study is to explore the socio-ecological and individual factors influencing the utilization of PMTCT services among HIV-positive pregnant women in western Kenya using a social ecological model as our analytical lens. Methods Data were collected using in-depth interviews with 33 HIV-infected women attending government health facilities in rural western Kenya. Women with HIV-infected infants aged between 6 weeks to 6 months with a definitive diagnosis of HIV in the infant, as well as those with an HIV-negative test result in the infant were interviewed between November 2012 and June 2013. Coding and analysis of the transcripts followed grounded theory tenets. Coding reports were discussed in a series of meetings held among the authors. We then employed constant comparative analysis to discover dominant individual, family, society and structural determinants of PMTCT use. Results Barriers to women’s utilization of PMTCT services fell within the broad constructs of the socio-ecological model of individual, family, society and structural determinants. Several themes cut across the different steps of PMTCT cascade and relate to different constructs of the socio-ecological model. These themes include: self-motivation, confidence and resilience, family support, absence or reduced stigma, right provider attitude and quality of health services provided. We also found out that these factors ensured enhanced maternal health and HIV negative children. Conclusion The findings of this study suggest that a woman’s social environment is an important determinant of MTCT. PMTCT Interventions must comprehensively address multiple factors across the different ecological levels. More research is however required for the development of multi-component interventions that combine strategies at different ecological levels. PMID:26457229

75 years of dryland science: Trends and gaps in arid ecology literature

PubMed Central

Dickman, Chris R.; Wardle, Glenda M.

2017-01-01

Growth in the publication of scientific articles is occurring at an exponential rate, prompting a growing need to synthesise information in a timely manner to combat urgent environmental problems and guide future research. Here, we undertake a topic analysis of dryland literature over the last 75 years (8218 articles) to identify areas in arid ecology that are well studied and topics that are emerging. Four topics—wetlands, mammal ecology, litter decomposition and spatial modelling, were identified as ‘hot topics’ that showed higher than average growth in publications from 1940 to 2015. Five topics—remote sensing, climate, habitat and spatial, agriculture and soils-microbes, were identified as ‘cold topics’, with lower than average growth over the survey period, but higher than average numbers of publications. Topics in arid ecology clustered into seven broad groups on word-based similarity. These groups ranged from mammal ecology and population genetics, broad-scale management and ecosystem modelling, plant ecology, agriculture and ecophysiology, to populations and paleoclimate. These patterns may reflect trends in the field of ecology more broadly. We also identified two broad research gaps in arid ecology: population genetics, and habitat and spatial research. Collaborations between population genetics and ecologists and investigations of ecological processes across spatial scales would contribute profitably to the advancement of arid ecology and to ecology more broadly. PMID:28384186

BioVeL: a virtual laboratory for data analysis and modelling in biodiversity science and ecology.

PubMed

Hardisty, Alex R; Bacall, Finn; Beard, Niall; Balcázar-Vargas, Maria-Paula; Balech, Bachir; Barcza, Zoltán; Bourlat, Sarah J; De Giovanni, Renato; de Jong, Yde; De Leo, Francesca; Dobor, Laura; Donvito, Giacinto; Fellows, Donal; Guerra, Antonio Fernandez; Ferreira, Nuno; Fetyukova, Yuliya; Fosso, Bruno; Giddy, Jonathan; Goble, Carole; Güntsch, Anton; Haines, Robert; Ernst, Vera Hernández; Hettling, Hannes; Hidy, Dóra; Horváth, Ferenc; Ittzés, Dóra; Ittzés, Péter; Jones, Andrew; Kottmann, Renzo; Kulawik, Robert; Leidenberger, Sonja; Lyytikäinen-Saarenmaa, Päivi; Mathew, Cherian; Morrison, Norman; Nenadic, Aleksandra; de la Hidalga, Abraham Nieva; Obst, Matthias; Oostermeijer, Gerard; Paymal, Elisabeth; Pesole, Graziano; Pinto, Salvatore; Poigné, Axel; Fernandez, Francisco Quevedo; Santamaria, Monica; Saarenmaa, Hannu; Sipos, Gergely; Sylla, Karl-Heinz; Tähtinen, Marko; Vicario, Saverio; Vos, Rutger Aldo; Williams, Alan R; Yilmaz, Pelin

2016-10-20

Making forecasts about biodiversity and giving support to policy relies increasingly on large collections of data held electronically, and on substantial computational capability and capacity to analyse, model, simulate and predict using such data. However, the physically distributed nature of data resources and of expertise in advanced analytical tools creates many challenges for the modern scientist. Across the wider biological sciences, presenting such capabilities on the Internet (as "Web services") and using scientific workflow systems to compose them for particular tasks is a practical way to carry out robust "in silico" science. However, use of this approach in biodiversity science and ecology has thus far been quite limited. BioVeL is a virtual laboratory for data analysis and modelling in biodiversity science and ecology, freely accessible via the Internet. BioVeL includes functions for accessing and analysing data through curated Web services; for performing complex in silico analysis through exposure of R programs, workflows, and batch processing functions; for on-line collaboration through sharing of workflows and workflow runs; for experiment documentation through reproducibility and repeatability; and for computational support via seamless connections to supporting computing infrastructures. We developed and improved more than 60 Web services with significant potential in many different kinds of data analysis and modelling tasks. We composed reusable workflows using these Web services, also incorporating R programs. Deploying these tools into an easy-to-use and accessible 'virtual laboratory', free via the Internet, we applied the workflows in several diverse case studies. We opened the virtual laboratory for public use and through a programme of external engagement we actively encouraged scientists and third party application and tool developers to try out the services and contribute to the activity. Our work shows we can deliver an operational, scalable and flexible Internet-based virtual laboratory to meet new demands for data processing and analysis in biodiversity science and ecology. In particular, we have successfully integrated existing and popular tools and practices from different scientific disciplines to be used in biodiversity and ecological research.

Ecological Network Analysis for a Low-Carbon and High-Tech Industrial Park

PubMed Central

Lu, Yi; Su, Meirong; Liu, Gengyuan; Chen, Bin; Zhou, Shiyi; Jiang, Meiming

2012-01-01

Industrial sector is one of the indispensable contributors in global warming. Even if the occurrence of ecoindustrial parks (EIPs) seems to be a good improvement in saving ecological crises, there is still a lack of definitional clarity and in-depth researches on low-carbon industrial parks. In order to reveal the processes of carbon metabolism in a low-carbon high-tech industrial park, we selected Beijing Development Area (BDA) International Business Park in Beijing, China as case study, establishing a seven-compartment- model low-carbon metabolic network based on the methodology of Ecological Network Analysis (ENA). Integrating the Network Utility Analysis (NUA), Network Control Analysis (NCA), and system-wide indicators, we compartmentalized system sectors into ecological structure and analyzed dependence and control degree based on carbon metabolism. The results suggest that indirect flows reveal more mutuality and exploitation relation between system compartments and they are prone to positive sides for the stability of the whole system. The ecological structure develops well as an approximate pyramidal structure, and the carbon metabolism of BDA proves self-mutualistic and sustainable. Construction and waste management were found to be two active sectors impacting carbon metabolism, which was mainly regulated by internal and external environment. PMID:23365516

Revisiting the Holy Grail: using plant functional traits to understand ecological processes.

PubMed

Funk, Jennifer L; Larson, Julie E; Ames, Gregory M; Butterfield, Bradley J; Cavender-Bares, Jeannine; Firn, Jennifer; Laughlin, Daniel C; Sutton-Grier, Ariana E; Williams, Laura; Wright, Justin

2017-05-01

One of ecology's grand challenges is developing general rules to explain and predict highly complex systems. Understanding and predicting ecological processes from species' traits has been considered a 'Holy Grail' in ecology. Plant functional traits are increasingly being used to develop mechanistic models that can predict how ecological communities will respond to abiotic and biotic perturbations and how species will affect ecosystem function and services in a rapidly changing world; however, significant challenges remain. In this review, we highlight recent work and outstanding questions in three areas: (i) selecting relevant traits; (ii) describing intraspecific trait variation and incorporating this variation into models; and (iii) scaling trait data to community- and ecosystem-level processes. Over the past decade, there have been significant advances in the characterization of plant strategies based on traits and trait relationships, and the integration of traits into multivariate indices and models of community and ecosystem function. However, the utility of trait-based approaches in ecology will benefit from efforts that demonstrate how these traits and indices influence organismal, community, and ecosystem processes across vegetation types, which may be achieved through meta-analysis and enhancement of trait databases. Additionally, intraspecific trait variation and species interactions need to be incorporated into predictive models using tools such as Bayesian hierarchical modelling. Finally, existing models linking traits to community and ecosystem processes need to be empirically tested for their applicability to be realized. © 2016 Cambridge Philosophical Society.

A study protocol to evaluate the relationship between outdoor air pollution and pregnancy outcomes

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background The present study protocol is designed to assess the relationship between outdoor air pollution and low birth weight and preterm births outcomes performing a semi-ecological analysis. Semi-ecological design studies are widely used to assess effects of air pollution in humans. In this type of analysis, health outcomes and covariates are measured in individuals and exposure assignments are usually based on air quality monitor stations. Therefore, estimating individual exposures are one of the major challenges when investigating these relationships with a semi-ecologic design. Methods/Design Semi-ecologic study consisting of a retrospective cohort study with ecologic assignment of exposure is applied. Health outcomes and covariates are collected at Primary Health Care Center. Data from pregnant registry, clinical record and specific questionnaire administered orally to the mothers of children born in period 2007-2010 in Portuguese Alentejo Litoral region, are collected by the research team. Outdoor air pollution data are collected with a lichen diversity biomonitoring program, and individual pregnancy exposures are assessed with spatial geostatistical simulation, which provides the basis for uncertainty analysis of individual exposures. Awareness of outdoor air pollution uncertainty will improve validity of individual exposures assignments for further statistical analysis with multivariate regression models. Discussion Exposure misclassification is an issue of concern in semi-ecological design. In this study, personal exposures are assigned to each pregnant using geocoded addresses data. A stochastic simulation method is applied to lichen diversity values index measured at biomonitoring survey locations, in order to assess spatial uncertainty of lichen diversity value index at each geocoded address. These methods assume a model for spatial autocorrelation of exposure and provide a distribution of exposures in each study location. We believe that variability of simulated exposure values at geocoded addresses will improve knowledge on variability of exposures, improving therefore validity of individual exposures to input in posterior statistical analysis. PMID:20950449

A study protocol to evaluate the relationship between outdoor air pollution and pregnancy outcomes.

PubMed

Ribeiro, Manuel C; Pereira, Maria J; Soares, Amílcar; Branquinho, Cristina; Augusto, Sofia; Llop, Esteve; Fonseca, Susana; Nave, Joaquim G; Tavares, António B; Dias, Carlos M; Silva, Ana; Selemane, Ismael; de Toro, Joaquin; Santos, Mário J; Santos, Fernanda

2010-10-15

The present study protocol is designed to assess the relationship between outdoor air pollution and low birth weight and preterm births outcomes performing a semi-ecological analysis. Semi-ecological design studies are widely used to assess effects of air pollution in humans. In this type of analysis, health outcomes and covariates are measured in individuals and exposure assignments are usually based on air quality monitor stations. Therefore, estimating individual exposures are one of the major challenges when investigating these relationships with a semi-ecologic design. Semi-ecologic study consisting of a retrospective cohort study with ecologic assignment of exposure is applied. Health outcomes and covariates are collected at Primary Health Care Center. Data from pregnant registry, clinical record and specific questionnaire administered orally to the mothers of children born in period 2007-2010 in Portuguese Alentejo Litoral region, are collected by the research team. Outdoor air pollution data are collected with a lichen diversity biomonitoring program, and individual pregnancy exposures are assessed with spatial geostatistical simulation, which provides the basis for uncertainty analysis of individual exposures. Awareness of outdoor air pollution uncertainty will improve validity of individual exposures assignments for further statistical analysis with multivariate regression models. Exposure misclassification is an issue of concern in semi-ecological design. In this study, personal exposures are assigned to each pregnant using geocoded addresses data. A stochastic simulation method is applied to lichen diversity values index measured at biomonitoring survey locations, in order to assess spatial uncertainty of lichen diversity value index at each geocoded address. These methods assume a model for spatial autocorrelation of exposure and provide a distribution of exposures in each study location. We believe that variability of simulated exposure values at geocoded addresses will improve knowledge on variability of exposures, improving therefore validity of individual exposures to input in posterior statistical analysis.

Interdisciplinary Pathways for Urban Metabolism Research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Newell, J. P.

2011-12-01

With its rapid rise as a metaphor to express coupled natural-human systems in cities, the concept of urban metabolism is evolving into a series of relatively distinct research frameworks amongst various disciplines, with varying definitions, theories, models, and emphases. In industrial ecology, housed primarily within the disciplinary domain of engineering, urban metabolism research has focused on quantifying material and energy flows into, within, and out of cities, using methodologies such as material flow analysis and life cycle assessment. In the field of urban ecology, which is strongly influenced by ecology and urban planning, research focus has been placed on understanding and modeling the complex patterns and processes of human-ecological systems within urban areas. Finally, in political ecology, closely aligned with human geography and anthropology, scholars theorize about the interwoven knots of social and natural processes, material flows, and spatial structures that form the urban metabolism. This paper offers three potential interdisciplinary urban metabolism research tracks that might integrate elements of these three "ecologies," thereby bridging engineering and the social and physical sciences. First, it presents the idea of infrastructure ecology, which explores the complex, emergent interdependencies between gray (water and wastewater, transportation, etc) and green (e.g. parks, greenways) infrastructure systems, as nested within a broader socio-economic context. For cities to be sustainable and resilient over time-space, the theory follows, these is a need to understand and redesign these infrastructure linkages. Second, there is the concept of an urban-scale carbon metabolism model which integrates consumption-based material flow analysis (including goods, water, and materials), with the carbon sink and source dynamics of the built environment (e.g. buildings, etc) and urban ecosystems. Finally, there is the political ecology of the material urban metabolism, which adds spatial differentiation to materials flows and form, as well as a focus on equity, access, and governance dimensions of the urban metabolism.

Analysis of Affective Instability in Ecological Momentary Assessment: Indices Using Successive Difference and Group Comparison via Multilevel Modeling

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jahng, Seungmin; Wood, Phillip K.; Trull, Timothy J.

2008-01-01

Temporal instability of affect is a defining characteristic of psychological disorders such as borderline personality disorder (BPD) and mood cycling disorders. Ecological momentary assessment (EMA) enables researchers to directly assess such frequent and extreme fluctuations over time. The authors examined 4 operationalizations of such temporal…

Habitat suitability and ecological niche profile of major malaria vectors in Cameroon

PubMed Central

2009-01-01

Background Suitability of environmental conditions determines a species distribution in space and time. Understanding and modelling the ecological niche of mosquito disease vectors can, therefore, be a powerful predictor of the risk of exposure to the pathogens they transmit. In Africa, five anophelines are responsible for over 95% of total malaria transmission. However, detailed knowledge of the geographic distribution and ecological requirements of these species is to date still inadequate. Methods Indoor-resting mosquitoes were sampled from 386 villages covering the full range of ecological settings available in Cameroon, Central Africa. Using a predictive species distribution modeling approach based only on presence records, habitat suitability maps were constructed for the five major malaria vectors Anopheles gambiae, Anopheles funestus, Anopheles arabiensis, Anopheles nili and Anopheles moucheti. The influence of 17 climatic, topographic, and land use variables on mosquito geographic distribution was assessed by multivariate regression and ordination techniques. Results Twenty-four anopheline species were collected, of which 17 are known to transmit malaria in Africa. Ecological Niche Factor Analysis, Habitat Suitability modeling and Canonical Correspondence Analysis revealed marked differences among the five major malaria vector species, both in terms of ecological requirements and niche breadth. Eco-geographical variables (EGVs) related to human activity had the highest impact on habitat suitability for the five major malaria vectors, with areas of low population density being of marginal or unsuitable habitat quality. Sunlight exposure, rainfall, evapo-transpiration, relative humidity, and wind speed were among the most discriminative EGVs separating "forest" from "savanna" species. Conclusions The distribution of major malaria vectors in Cameroon is strongly affected by the impact of humans on the environment, with variables related to proximity to human settings being among the best predictors of habitat suitability. The ecologically more tolerant species An. gambiae and An. funestus were recorded in a wide range of eco-climatic settings. The other three major vectors, An. arabiensis, An. moucheti, and An. nili, were more specialized. Ecological niche and species distribution modelling should help improve malaria vector control interventions by targeting places and times where the impact on vector populations and disease transmission can be optimized. PMID:20028559

Habitat suitability and ecological niche profile of major malaria vectors in Cameroon.

PubMed

Ayala, Diego; Costantini, Carlo; Ose, Kenji; Kamdem, Guy C; Antonio-Nkondjio, Christophe; Agbor, Jean-Pierre; Awono-Ambene, Parfait; Fontenille, Didier; Simard, Frédéric

2009-12-23

Suitability of environmental conditions determines a species distribution in space and time. Understanding and modelling the ecological niche of mosquito disease vectors can, therefore, be a powerful predictor of the risk of exposure to the pathogens they transmit. In Africa, five anophelines are responsible for over 95% of total malaria transmission. However, detailed knowledge of the geographic distribution and ecological requirements of these species is to date still inadequate. Indoor-resting mosquitoes were sampled from 386 villages covering the full range of ecological settings available in Cameroon, Central Africa. Using a predictive species distribution modeling approach based only on presence records, habitat suitability maps were constructed for the five major malaria vectors Anopheles gambiae, Anopheles funestus, Anopheles arabiensis, Anopheles nili and Anopheles moucheti. The influence of 17 climatic, topographic, and land use variables on mosquito geographic distribution was assessed by multivariate regression and ordination techniques. Twenty-four anopheline species were collected, of which 17 are known to transmit malaria in Africa. Ecological Niche Factor Analysis, Habitat Suitability modeling and Canonical Correspondence Analysis revealed marked differences among the five major malaria vector species, both in terms of ecological requirements and niche breadth. Eco-geographical variables (EGVs) related to human activity had the highest impact on habitat suitability for the five major malaria vectors, with areas of low population density being of marginal or unsuitable habitat quality. Sunlight exposure, rainfall, evapo-transpiration, relative humidity, and wind speed were among the most discriminative EGVs separating "forest" from "savanna" species. The distribution of major malaria vectors in Cameroon is strongly affected by the impact of humans on the environment, with variables related to proximity to human settings being among the best predictors of habitat suitability. The ecologically more tolerant species An. gambiae and An. funestus were recorded in a wide range of eco-climatic settings. The other three major vectors, An. arabiensis, An. moucheti, and An. nili, were more specialized. Ecological niche and species distribution modelling should help improve malaria vector control interventions by targeting places and times where the impact on vector populations and disease transmission can be optimized.

Development of water allocation Model Based on ET-Control and Its Application in Haihe River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

You, Jinjun; Gan, Hong; Gan, Zhiguo; Wang, Lin

2010-05-01

Traditionally, water allocation is to distribute water to different regions and sectors, without enough consideration on amount of water consumed after water distribution. Water allocation based on ET (evaporation and Transpiration) control changes this idea and emphasizes the absolute amount of evaporation and transpiration in specific area. With this ideology, the amount of ET involved the water allocation includes not only water consumed from the sectors, but the natural ET. Therefore, the water allocation consist of two steps, the first step is to estimate reasonable ET quantum in regions, then allocate water to more detailed regions and various sectors with the ET quantum according with the operational rules. To make qualified ET distribution and water allocation in various regions, a framework is put forward in this paper, in which two models are applied to analyze the different scenarios with predefined economic growth and ecological objective. The first model figures out rational ET objective with multi-objective analysis for compromised solution in economic growth and ecological maintenance. Food security and environmental protection are also taken as constraints in the optimization in the first model. The second one provides hydraulic simulation and water balance to allocate the ET objective to corresponding regions under operational rules. These two models are combined into an integrated ET-Control water allocation. Scenario analysis through the ET-Control Model could discover the relations between economy and ecology, farther to give suggestion on measures to control water use with condition of changing socio-economic growth and ecological objectives. To confirm the methodology, Haihe River is taken as a case to study. Rational water allocation is important branch of decision making on water planning and management in Haihe River Basin since water scarcity and deteriorating environment fights for water in this basin dramatically and reasonable water allocation between economy and ecology is a focus. Considering condition of water scarcity in Haihe River Basin, ET quota is taken as objective for water allocation in provinces to realize the requirement of water inflow into the Bohai Sea. Scenario analysis provides the results of water evaporation from natural water cycle and artificial use. A trade-off curve based on fulfilment of ecological and economic objectives in different scenarios discovers the competitive relation between human activities and nature.

Analysis on the adaptive countermeasures to ecological management under changing environment in the Tarim River Basin, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Fan; Xue, Lianqing; Zhang, Luochen; Chen, Xinfang; Chi, Yixia

2017-12-01

This article aims to explore the adaptive utilization strategies of flow regime versus traditional practices in the context of climate change and human activities in the arid area. The study presents quantitative analysis of climatic and anthropogenic factors to streamflow alteration in the Tarim River Basin (TRB) using the Budyko method and adaptive utilization strategies to eco-hydrological regime by comparing the applicability between autoregressive moving average model (ARMA) model and combined regression model. Our results suggest that human activities played a dominant role in streamflow deduction in the mainstream with contribution of 120.7%~190.1%. While in the headstreams, climatic variables were the primary determinant of streamflow by 56.5~152.6% of the increase. The comparison revealed that combined regression model performed better than ARMA model with the qualified rate of 80.49~90.24%. Based on the forecasts of streamflow for different purposes, the adaptive utilization scheme of water flow is established from the perspective of time and space. Our study presents an effective water resources scheduling scheme for the ecological environment and provides references for ecological protection and water allocation in the arid area.

Ecological covariates based predictive model of malaria risk in the state of Chhattisgarh, India.

PubMed

Kumar, Rajesh; Dash, Chinmaya; Rani, Khushbu

2017-09-01

Malaria being an endemic disease in the state of Chhattisgarh and ecologically dependent mosquito-borne disease, the study is intended to identify the ecological covariates of malaria risk in districts of the state and to build a suitable predictive model based on those predictors which could assist developing a weather based early warning system. This secondary data based analysis used one month lagged district level malaria positive cases as response variable and ecological covariates as independent variables which were tested with fixed effect panelled negative binomial regression models. Interactions among the covariates were explored using two way factorial interaction in the model. Although malaria risk in the state possesses perennial characteristics, higher parasitic incidence was observed during the rainy and winter seasons. The univariate analysis indicated that the malaria incidence risk was statistically significant associated with rainfall, maximum humidity, minimum temperature, wind speed, and forest cover ( p  < 0.05). The efficient predictive model include the forest cover [IRR-1.033 (1.024-1.042)], maximum humidity [IRR-1.016 (1.013-1.018)], and two-way factorial interactions between district specific averaged monthly minimum temperature and monthly minimum temperature, monthly minimum temperature was statistically significant [IRR-1.44 (1.231-1.695)] whereas the interaction term has a protective effect [IRR-0.982 (0.974-0.990)] against malaria infections. Forest cover, maximum humidity, minimum temperature and wind speed emerged as potential covariates to be used in predictive models for modelling the malaria risk in the state which could be efficiently used for early warning systems in the state.

WASP TRANSPORT MODELING AND WASP ECOLOGICAL MODELING

EPA Science Inventory

A combination of lectures, demonstrations, and hands-on excercises will be used to introduce pollutant transport modeling with the U.S. EPA's general water quality model, WASP (Water Quality Analysis Simulation Program). WASP features include a user-friendly Windows-based interfa...

[Coupling between ecological vulnerability and economic poverty in contiguous destitute areas, China: Empirical analysis of 714 poverty-stricken counties.

PubMed

Cao, Shi Song; Wang, Yan Hui; Duan, Fu Zhou; Zhao, Wen Ji; Wang, Zhi Heng; Fang, Na

2016-08-01

Maintaining the coordinated correlation between ecological environment and economic development is one of the important strategies in the new stage of poverty alleviation and development. Taking 714 poverty-stricken counties in contiguous destitute areas as study areas, this paper designed the ecological vulnerability evaluation indicator system based on the ecological sensitivity-resilience-pressure (SRP) conceptual model, as well as the comprehensive poverty evaluation indicators from the perspective of socioeconomic development, so as to build the coupling model to reveal the coupling between ecological vulnerability and economic poverty. The results showed that Hu-Line could act as a feasible partition label to depict the spatial distribution patterns of ecological vulnerability, economic poverty, as well as their coupling degree in contiguous destitute areas, which should be fully taken into consideration the influence of Hu-Line on the east-west pattern classification of national poverty reduction. In addition, there existed a symbiotic positive correlation between ecological vulnerability and economic poverty, therefore, the strategic significance of ecological and environment protection in poverty-stricken areas should be specifically emphasized to reduce economic poverty by synchronously protecting the ecological environment. Approximately half of the counties involved in the study area were in the coordinated type of recession disorders, where the ecological environment quality and the economic development could not be synchronized.

Evaluating Sustainability of Cropland Use in Yuanzhou County of the Loess Plateau, China Using an Emergy-Based Ecological Footprint

PubMed Central

Bai, Xiaomei; Wen, Zhongming; An, Shaoshan; Li, Bicheng

2015-01-01

Evaluating the sustainability of cropland use is essential for guaranteeing a secure food supply and accomplishing agriculture sustainable development. This study was conducted in the ecologically vulnerable Loess Plateau region of China to evaluate the sustainability of cropland use based on an ecological footprint model that integrates emergy analysis. One modified method proposed in 2005 is known as the emergetic ecological footprint (EEF). We enhanced the method by accounting for both the surface soil energy in the carrying capacity calculation and the net topsoil loss for human consumption in the EF calculation. This paper evaluates whether the cropland of the study area was overloaded or sustainably managed during the period from 1981 to 2009. Toward this end, the final results obtained from EEF were compared to conventional EF and previous methods. The results showed that the cropland of Yuanzhou County has not been used sustainably since 1983, and the conventional EF analysis provided similar results. In contrast, a deficit did not appear during this time period when previous calculation methods of others were used. Additionally, the ecological sustainable index (ESI) from three models indicated that the recently used cropland system is unlikely to be unsustainable. PMID:25738289

Effective discharge analysis of ecological processes in streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Doyle, Martin W.; Stanley, Emily H.; Strayer, David L.; Jacobson, Robert B.; Schmidt, John C.

2005-01-01

Discharge is a master variable that controls many processes in stream ecosystems. However, there is uncertainty of which discharges are most important for driving particular ecological processes and thus how flow regime may influence entire stream ecosystems. Here the analytical method of effective discharge from fluvial geomorphology is used to analyze the interaction between frequency and magnitude of discharge events that drive organic matter transport, algal growth, nutrient retention, macroinvertebrate disturbance, and habitat availability. We quantify the ecological effective discharge using a synthesis of previously published studies and modeling from a range of study sites. An analytical expression is then developed for a particular case of ecological effective discharge and is used to explore how effective discharge varies within variable hydrologic regimes. Our results suggest that a range of discharges is important for different ecological processes in an individual stream. Discharges are not equally important; instead, effective discharge values exist that correspond to near modal flows and moderate floods for the variable sets examined. We suggest four types of ecological response to discharge variability: discharge as a transport mechanism, regulator of habitat, process modulator, and disturbance. Effective discharge analysis will perform well when there is a unique, essentially instantaneous relationship between discharge and an ecological process and poorly when effects of discharge are delayed or confounded by legacy effects. Despite some limitations the conceptual and analytical utility of the effective discharge analysis allows exploring general questions about how hydrologic variability influences various ecological processes in streams.

Model application niche analysis: Assessing the transferability and generalizability of ecological models

EPA Science Inventory

The use of models by ecologist and environmental managers, to inform environmental management and decision-making, has grown exponentially in the past 50 years. Due to logistical, economical and theoretical benefits, model users are frequently transferring preexisting models to n...

Dynamically Coupled Food-web and Hydrodynamic Modeling with ADH-CASM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Piercy, C.; Swannack, T. M.

2012-12-01

Oysters and freshwater mussels are "ecological engineers," modifying the local water quality by filtering zooplankton and other suspended particulate matter from the water column and flow hydraulics by impinging on the near-bed flow environment. The success of sessile, benthic invertebrates such as oysters depends on environmental factors including but not limited to temperature, salinity, and flow regime. Typically food-web and other types of ecological models use flow and water quality data as direct input without regard to the feedback between the ecosystem and the physical environment. The USACE-ERDC has developed a coupled hydrodynamic-ecological modeling approach that dynamically couples a 2-D hydrodynamic and constituent transport model, Adaptive Hydraulics (ADH), with a bioenergetics food-web model, the Comprehensive Aquatics Systems Model (CASM), which captures the dynamic feedback between aquatic ecological systems and the environment. We present modeling results from restored oyster reefs in the Great Wicomico River on the western shore of the Chesapeake Bay, which quantify ecosystem services such as the influence of the benthic ecosystem on water quality. Preliminary results indicate that while the influence of oyster reefs on bulk flow dynamics is limited due to the localized influence of oyster reefs, large reefs and the associated benthic ecosystem can create measurable changes in the concentrations of nitrogen, phosphorus, and carbon in the areas around reefs. We also present a sensitivity analysis to quantify the relative sensitivity of the coupled ADH-CASM model to both hydrodynamic and ecological parameter choice.

Meeting in Turkey: WASP Transport Modeling and WASP Ecological Modeling

EPA Science Inventory

A combination of lectures, demonstrations, and hands-on excercises will be used to introduce pollutant transport modeling with the U.S. EPA's general water quality model, WASP (Water Quality Analysis Simulation Program). WASP features include a user-friendly Windows-based interfa...

Meeting in Korea: WASP Transport Modeling and WASP Ecological Modeling

EPA Science Inventory

A combination of lectures, demonstrations, and hands-on excercises will be used to introduce pollutant transport modeling with the U.S. EPA's general water quality model, WASP (Water Quality Analysis Simulation Program). WASP features include a user-friendly Windows-based interfa...

Ecological Network Indicators of Ecosystem Status and Change in the Baltic Sea

PubMed Central

Tomczak, Maciej T.; Heymans, Johanna J.; Yletyinen, Johanna; Niiranen, Susa; Otto, Saskia A.; Blenckner, Thorsten

2013-01-01

Several marine ecosystems under anthropogenic pressure have experienced shifts from one ecological state to another. In the central Baltic Sea, the regime shift of the 1980s has been associated with food-web reorganization and redirection of energy flow pathways. These long-term dynamics from 1974 to 2006 have been simulated here using a food-web model forced by climate and fishing. Ecological network analysis was performed to calculate indices of ecosystem change. The model replicated the regime shift. The analyses of indicators suggested that the system’s resilience was higher prior to 1988 and lower thereafter. The ecosystem topology also changed from a web-like structure to a linearized food-web. PMID:24116045

Meeting Health and Psychological Needs of Women In Drug Treatment Court

PubMed Central

Morse, Diane S.; Cerulli, Catherine; Bedell, Precious; Wilson, John L.; Thomas, Katherine; Mittal, Mona; Lamberti, J. Steven; Williams, Geoffrey; Silverstein, Jennifer; Mukherjee, Aninda; Walck, Donna; Chin, Nancy

2013-01-01

We explored healthcare-related experiences of women drug court participants through combining context from the Socio-Ecological Model with motivation needs for health behavior as indicated by self-determination theory. Five focus groups with 8 women drug court participants, 8 court staff, and 9 community service providers were examined using qualitative framework analysis. Themes emerged across the Socio-Ecological Model and were cross-mapped with self-determination theory-defined motivation needs for autonomy, relatedness, and competence. Socio-Ecological levels contained experiences either supporting or eroding women’s motivation needs: 1) intrapersonal challenges participants termed an “evil cycle” of relapse, recidivism, trauma, and life challenges; 2) interpersonal context of parenting and stigma involving features of this “evil cycle”; 3) institutions with logistical barriers to legal and medical assistance; 4) community resources inadequate to support living and employment needs. Self-determination theory helps explain motivation required to address the women’s healthcare needs and multiple demands at all levels of the Socio-Ecological Model. PMID:24074850

Meeting health and psychological needs of women in drug treatment court.

PubMed

Morse, Diane S; Cerulli, Catherine; Bedell, Precious; Wilson, John L; Thomas, Katherine; Mittal, Mona; Lamberti, J Steven; Williams, Geoffrey; Silverstein, Jennifer; Mukherjee, Aninda; Walck, Donna; Chin, Nancy

2014-02-01

We explored healthcare-related experiences of women drug court participants through combining context from the socio-ecological model with motivation needs for health behavior as indicated by self-determination theory. Five focus groups with 8 women drug court participants, 8 court staff, and 9 community service providers were examined using qualitative framework analysis. Themes emerged across the socio-ecological model and were cross-mapped with self-determination theory-defined motivation needs for autonomy, relatedness, and competence. Socio-ecological levels contained experiences either supporting or eroding women's motivation needs: (1) intrapersonal challenges participants termed an "evil cycle" of relapse, recidivism, trauma, and life challenges; (2) interpersonal context of parenting and stigma involving features of this "evil cycle"; (3) institutions with logistical barriers to legal and medical assistance; (4) community resources inadequate to support living and employment needs. Self-determination theory helps explain motivation required to address the women's healthcare needs and multiple demands at all levels of the socio-ecological model. © 2013.

Middle Childhood Antecedents to Progressions in Male Adolescent Substance Use: An Ecological Analysis of Risk and Protection.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dishion, Thomas J.; Capaldi, Deborah M.; Yoerger, Karen

1999-01-01

This study examined antecedents to early patterned alcohol and tobacco use and marijuana experimentation between ages 11 and 16 for an at-risk male sample. Findings suggested that family, peer, and child characteristics were inextricably connected within an ecology of development. A structural equation prediction model suggested a higher order…

The Effects of Poverty on Children's Socioemotional Development: An Ecological Systems Analysis.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Eamon, Mary Keegan

2001-01-01

Bronfenbrenner's process-person-context-time model is used to examine theories that explain adverse effects of economic deprivation on children's socioemotional development. Processes of not only the family, but also those of the peer group and school, and in other levels of the ecological environment may also explain the relation between economic…

The ecological virus.

PubMed

O'Malley, Maureen A

2016-10-01

Ecology is usually described as the study of organisms interacting with one another and their environments. From this view of ecology, viruses - not usually considered to be organisms - would merely be part of the environment. Since the late 1980s, however, a growing stream of micrographic, experimental, molecular, and model-based (theoretical) research has been investigating how and why viruses should be understood as ecological actors of the most important sort. Viruses, especially phage, have been revealed as participants in the planet's most crucial food webs, even though viruses technically consume nothing (they do not metabolize by themselves). Even more impressively, viruses have been identified as regulators of planetary biogeochemistry, in which they control cycles such as carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus - cycles on which all life depends. Although much biogeochemical research black-boxes the entities filling functional roles, it is useful to focus a little more closely to understand how viruses can be held responsible for the global processes of life. This paper will give a brief overview of the history of virus ecology and tease out the implications of large-scale ecological modelling with viruses. This analysis suggests that viruses should be conceptualized as ecological actors that are at least comparable and possibly equal to organismal actors. Ecological agency can therefore be distinguished from standard interpretations of biological agency. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Applications of ecological concepts and remote sensing technologies in archaeological site reconnaissance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Miller, W. Frank; Sever, Thomas L.; Lee, C. Daniel

1991-01-01

The concept of integrating ecological perspectives on early man's settlement patterns with advanced remote sensing technologies shows promise for predictive site modeling. Early work with aerial imagery and ecosystem analysis is discussed with respect to the development of a major project in Maya archaeology supported by NASA and the National Geographic Society with technical support from the Mississippi State Remote Sensing Center. A preliminary site reconnaissance model will be developed for testing during the 1991 field season.

Calibration and analysis of genome-based models for microbial ecology.

PubMed

Louca, Stilianos; Doebeli, Michael

2015-10-16

Microbial ecosystem modeling is complicated by the large number of unknown parameters and the lack of appropriate calibration tools. Here we present a novel computational framework for modeling microbial ecosystems, which combines genome-based model construction with statistical analysis and calibration to experimental data. Using this framework, we examined the dynamics of a community of Escherichia coli strains that emerged in laboratory evolution experiments, during which an ancestral strain diversified into two coexisting ecotypes. We constructed a microbial community model comprising the ancestral and the evolved strains, which we calibrated using separate monoculture experiments. Simulations reproduced the successional dynamics in the evolution experiments, and pathway activation patterns observed in microarray transcript profiles. Our approach yielded detailed insights into the metabolic processes that drove bacterial diversification, involving acetate cross-feeding and competition for organic carbon and oxygen. Our framework provides a missing link towards a data-driven mechanistic microbial ecology.

A 2-D process-based model for suspended sediment dynamics: A first step towards ecological modeling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Achete, F. M.; van der Wegen, M.; Roelvink, D.; Jaffe, B.

2015-01-01

In estuaries suspended sediment concentration (SSC) is one of the most important contributors to turbidity, which influences habitat conditions and ecological functions of the system. Sediment dynamics differs depending on sediment supply and hydrodynamic forcing conditions that vary over space and over time. A robust sediment transport model is a first step in developing a chain of models enabling simulations of contaminants, phytoplankton and habitat conditions. This works aims to determine turbidity levels in the complex-geometry delta of the San Francisco estuary using a process-based approach (Delft3D Flexible Mesh software). Our approach includes a detailed calibration against measured SSC levels, a sensitivity analysis on model parameters and the determination of a yearly sediment budget as well as an assessment of model results in terms of turbidity levels for a single year, water year (WY) 2011. Model results show that our process-based approach is a valuable tool in assessing sediment dynamics and their related ecological parameters over a range of spatial and temporal scales. The model may act as the base model for a chain of ecological models assessing the impact of climate change and management scenarios. Here we present a modeling approach that, with limited data, produces reliable predictions and can be useful for estuaries without a large amount of processes data.

A 2-D process-based model for suspended sediment dynamics: a first step towards ecological modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Achete, F. M.; van der Wegen, M.; Roelvink, D.; Jaffe, B.

2015-06-01

In estuaries suspended sediment concentration (SSC) is one of the most important contributors to turbidity, which influences habitat conditions and ecological functions of the system. Sediment dynamics differs depending on sediment supply and hydrodynamic forcing conditions that vary over space and over time. A robust sediment transport model is a first step in developing a chain of models enabling simulations of contaminants, phytoplankton and habitat conditions. This works aims to determine turbidity levels in the complex-geometry delta of the San Francisco estuary using a process-based approach (Delft3D Flexible Mesh software). Our approach includes a detailed calibration against measured SSC levels, a sensitivity analysis on model parameters and the determination of a yearly sediment budget as well as an assessment of model results in terms of turbidity levels for a single year, water year (WY) 2011. Model results show that our process-based approach is a valuable tool in assessing sediment dynamics and their related ecological parameters over a range of spatial and temporal scales. The model may act as the base model for a chain of ecological models assessing the impact of climate change and management scenarios. Here we present a modeling approach that, with limited data, produces reliable predictions and can be useful for estuaries without a large amount of processes data.

An integrated remote sensing approach for identifying ecological range sites. [parker mountain

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jaynes, R. A.

1983-01-01

A model approach for identifying ecological range sites was applied to high elevation sagebrush-dominated rangelands on Parker Mountain, in south-central Utah. The approach utilizes map information derived from both high altitude color infrared photography and LANDSAT digital data, integrated with soils, geological, and precipitation maps. Identification of the ecological range site for a given area requires an evaluation of all relevant environmental factors which combine to give that site the potential to produce characteristic types and amounts of vegetation. A table is presented which allows the user to determine ecological range site based upon an integrated use of the maps which were prepared. The advantages of identifying ecological range sites through an integrated photo interpretation/LANDSAT analysis are discussed.

[Ecological risk assessment of Taihu Lake basin based on landscape pattern].

PubMed

Xie, Xiao Ping; Chen, Zhi Cong; Wang, Fang; Bai, Mao Wei; Xu, Wen Yang

2017-10-01

Taihu Lake basin was selected as the study site. Based on the landscape data of 2000, 2005, 2010 and 2015, the Markov and CLUE-S models were used to simulate the landscape types with different scenarios in 2030, and landscape ecological risk index was constructed. The shift of gravity center and spatial statistics were used to reveal landscape ecological risk of Taihu Lake basin with temporal and spatial characteristics. The results showed that the ecological risk mainly was at medium and low levels in Taihu Lake basin, and the higher ecological risk areas were mainly distributed at the Taihu Lake area during 2000 to 2015, and the low ecological risk was transferred from the southwest and south of Taihu Lake to the developed areas in the northern part of Taihu Lake area. Spatial analysis showed that landscape ecological risk had negative correlation with natural factors, which was weakened gradually, while the correlation with socioeconomic factors trended to become stronger, with human disturbance affecting the landscape ecological risk significantly. The impact of socioeconomic factors on landscape ecological risks differed in different urbanization stages. In the developing area, with the economic development, the landscape was increasingly fragmented and the ecological risk was correspondingly increased. While in the developed area, with the further development of the economy, the aggregation index was increased, and fragmentation and separation indexes were decreased, ecological construction was restored, and the landscape ecological risk began to decline. CLUE-S model simulation showed that the ecological risk of Taihu Lake basin would be reduced in future, mainly on the low and relatively low levels. Taihu Lake area, both in history and the future, is a high ecological risk zone, and its management and protection should be strengthened.

Environment, power, and society. [stressing energy language and energy analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Odum, H.T.

Studies of the energetics of ecological systems suggest general means for applying basic laws of energy and matter to the complex systems of nature and man. In this book, energy language is used to consider the pressing problem of survival in our time--the partnership of man in nature. An effort is made to show that energy analysis can help answer many of the questions of economics, law, and religion. Models for the analysis of a system are made by recognizing major divisions whose causal relationships are indicated by the pathways of interchange of energy and work. Then simulation allows themore » model's performance to be tested against the performance of the real system. Ideal energy flows are illustrated with ecological systems and then applied to all kinds of situations from very small biochemical processes to the large overall systems of man and the biosphere. Energy diagraming is included to consider the great problems of power, pollution, population, food, and war. This account also attempts to introduce ecology through the energy language.« less

Meta-analysis of thirty-two case-control and two ecological radon studies of lung cancer.

PubMed

Dobrzynski, Ludwik; Fornalski, Krzysztof W; Reszczynska, Joanna

2018-03-01

A re-analysis has been carried out of thirty-two case-control and two ecological studies concerning the influence of radon, a radioactive gas, on the risk of lung cancer. Three mathematically simplest dose-response relationships (models) were tested: constant (zero health effect), linear, and parabolic (linear-quadratic). Health effect end-points reported in the analysed studies are odds ratios or relative risk ratios, related either to morbidity or mortality. In our preliminary analysis, we show that the results of dose-response fitting are qualitatively (within uncertainties, given as error bars) the same, whichever of these health effect end-points are applied. Therefore, we deemed it reasonable to aggregate all response data into the so-called Relative Health Factor and jointly analysed such mixed data, to obtain better statistical power. In the second part of our analysis, robust Bayesian and classical methods of analysis were applied to this combined dataset. In this part of our analysis, we selected different subranges of radon concentrations. In view of substantial differences between the methodology used by the authors of case-control and ecological studies, the mathematical relationships (models) were applied mainly to the thirty-two case-control studies. The degree to which the two ecological studies, analysed separately, affect the overall results when combined with the thirty-two case-control studies, has also been evaluated. In all, as a result of our meta-analysis of the combined cohort, we conclude that the analysed data concerning radon concentrations below ~1000 Bq/m3 (~20 mSv/year of effective dose to the whole body) do not support the thesis that radon may be a cause of any statistically significant increase in lung cancer incidence.

Sustainability and economics: The Adirondack Park experience, a forest economic-ecological model, and solar energy policy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Erickson, Jon David

The long-term sustainability of human communities will depend on our relationship with regional environments, our maintenance of renewable resources, and our successful disengagement from nonrenewable energy dependence. This dissertation investigates sustainability at these three levels, following a critical analysis of sustainability and economics. At the regional environment level, the Adirondack Park of New York State is analyzed as a potential model of sustainable development. A set of initial and ongoing conditions are presented that both emerge from and support a model of sustainability in the Adirondacks. From these conditions, a clearer picture emerges of the definition of regional sustainability, consequences of its adoption, and lessons from its application. Next, an economic-ecological model of the northern hardwood forest ecosystem is developed. The model integrates economic theory and intertemporal ecological concepts, linking current harvest decisions with future forest growth, financial value, and ecosystem stability. The results indicate very different economic and ecological outcomes by varying opportunity cost and ecosystem recovery assumptions, and suggest a positive benefit to ecological recovery in the forest rotation decision of the profit maximizing manager. The last section investigates the motives, economics, and international development implications of renewable energy (specifically photovoltaic technology) in rural electrification and technology transfer, drawing on research in the Dominican Republic. The implications of subsidizing a photovoltaic market versus investing in basic research are explored.

Climate downscaling effects on predictive ecological models: a case study for threatened and endangered vertebrates in the southeastern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bucklin, David N.; Watling, James I.; Speroterra, Carolina; Brandt, Laura A.; Mazzotti, Frank J.; Romañach, Stephanie S.

2013-01-01

High-resolution (downscaled) projections of future climate conditions are critical inputs to a wide variety of ecological and socioeconomic models and are created using numerous different approaches. Here, we conduct a sensitivity analysis of spatial predictions from climate envelope models for threatened and endangered vertebrates in the southeastern United States to determine whether two different downscaling approaches (with and without the use of a regional climate model) affect climate envelope model predictions when all other sources of variation are held constant. We found that prediction maps differed spatially between downscaling approaches and that the variation attributable to downscaling technique was comparable to variation between maps generated using different general circulation models (GCMs). Precipitation variables tended to show greater discrepancies between downscaling techniques than temperature variables, and for one GCM, there was evidence that more poorly resolved precipitation variables contributed relatively more to model uncertainty than more well-resolved variables. Our work suggests that ecological modelers requiring high-resolution climate projections should carefully consider the type of downscaling applied to the climate projections prior to their use in predictive ecological modeling. The uncertainty associated with alternative downscaling methods may rival that of other, more widely appreciated sources of variation, such as the general circulation model or emissions scenario with which future climate projections are created.

Modeling Patient Treatment With Medical Records: An Abstraction Hierarchy to Understand User Competencies and Needs.

PubMed

St-Maurice, Justin D; Burns, Catherine M

2017-07-28

Health care is a complex sociotechnical system. Patient treatment is evolving and needs to incorporate the use of technology and new patient-centered treatment paradigms. Cognitive work analysis (CWA) is an effective framework for understanding complex systems, and work domain analysis (WDA) is useful for understanding complex ecologies. Although previous applications of CWA have described patient treatment, due to their scope of work patients were previously characterized as biomedical machines, rather than patient actors involved in their own care. An abstraction hierarchy that characterizes patients as beings with complex social values and priorities is needed. This can help better understand treatment in a modern approach to care. The purpose of this study was to perform a WDA to represent the treatment of patients with medical records. The methods to develop this model included the analysis of written texts and collaboration with subject matter experts. Our WDA represents the ecology through its functional purposes, abstract functions, generalized functions, physical functions, and physical forms. Compared with other work domain models, this model is able to articulate the nuanced balance between medical treatment, patient education, and limited health care resources. Concepts in the analysis were similar to the modeling choices of other WDAs but combined them in as a comprehensive, systematic, and contextual overview. The model is helpful to understand user competencies and needs. Future models could be developed to model the patient's domain and enable the exploration of the shared decision-making (SDM) paradigm. Our work domain model links treatment goals, decision-making constraints, and task workflows. This model can be used by system developers who would like to use ecological interface design (EID) to improve systems. Our hierarchy is the first in a future set that could explore new treatment paradigms. Future hierarchies could model the patient as a controller and could be useful for mobile app development. ©Justin D St-Maurice, Catherine M Burns. Originally published in JMIR Human Factors (http://humanfactors.jmir.org), 28.07.2017.

Modeling Patient Treatment With Medical Records: An Abstraction Hierarchy to Understand User Competencies and Needs

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Background Health care is a complex sociotechnical system. Patient treatment is evolving and needs to incorporate the use of technology and new patient-centered treatment paradigms. Cognitive work analysis (CWA) is an effective framework for understanding complex systems, and work domain analysis (WDA) is useful for understanding complex ecologies. Although previous applications of CWA have described patient treatment, due to their scope of work patients were previously characterized as biomedical machines, rather than patient actors involved in their own care. Objective An abstraction hierarchy that characterizes patients as beings with complex social values and priorities is needed. This can help better understand treatment in a modern approach to care. The purpose of this study was to perform a WDA to represent the treatment of patients with medical records. Methods The methods to develop this model included the analysis of written texts and collaboration with subject matter experts. Our WDA represents the ecology through its functional purposes, abstract functions, generalized functions, physical functions, and physical forms. Results Compared with other work domain models, this model is able to articulate the nuanced balance between medical treatment, patient education, and limited health care resources. Concepts in the analysis were similar to the modeling choices of other WDAs but combined them in as a comprehensive, systematic, and contextual overview. The model is helpful to understand user competencies and needs. Future models could be developed to model the patient’s domain and enable the exploration of the shared decision-making (SDM) paradigm. Conclusion Our work domain model links treatment goals, decision-making constraints, and task workflows. This model can be used by system developers who would like to use ecological interface design (EID) to improve systems. Our hierarchy is the first in a future set that could explore new treatment paradigms. Future hierarchies could model the patient as a controller and could be useful for mobile app development. PMID:28754650

[Cultural regionalization for Coptis chinensis based on 3S technology platform Ⅰ. Study on growth suitability for Coptis chinensis based on ecological factors analysis by Maxent and ArcGIS model].

PubMed

Liu, Xin; Yang, Yan-Fang; Song, Hong-Ping; Zhang, Xiao-Bo; Huang, Lu-Qi; Wu, He-Zhen

2016-09-01

At the urgent request of Coptis chinensis planting,growth suitability as assessment indicators for C. chinensis cultivation was proposed and analyzed in this paper , based on chemical quality determination and ecological fators analysis by Maxent and ArcGIS model. Its potential distribution areas at differernt suitability grade and regionalization map were formulated based on statistical theory and growth suitability theory. The results showed that the most suitable habitats is some parts of Chongqing and Hubei province, such as Shizhu, Lichuan, Wulong, Wuxi, Enshi. There are seven ecological factor is the main ecological factors affect the growth of Coptidis Rhizoma, including altitude, precipitation in February and September and the rise of precipitation and altitude is conducive to the accumulation of total alkaloid content in C. chinensis. Therefore, The results of the study not only illustrates the most suitable for the surroundings of Coptidis Rhizoma, also helpful to further research and practice of cultivation regionalization, wild resource monitoring and large-scale cultivation of traditional Chinese medicine plants. Copyright© by the Chinese Pharmaceutical Association.

Comparing meta-analysis and ecological-longitudinal analysis in time-series studies. A case study of the effects of air pollution on mortality in three Spanish cities.

PubMed

Saez, M; Figueiras, A; Ballester, F; Pérez-Hoyos, S; Ocaña, R; Tobías, A

2001-06-01

The objective of this paper is to introduce a different approach, called the ecological-longitudinal, to carrying out pooled analysis in time series ecological studies. Because it gives a larger number of data points and, hence, increases the statistical power of the analysis, this approach, unlike conventional ones, allows the complementation of aspects such as accommodation of random effect models, of lags, of interaction between pollutants and between pollutants and meteorological variables, that are hardly implemented in conventional approaches. The approach is illustrated by providing quantitative estimates of the short-term effects of air pollution on mortality in three Spanish cities, Barcelona, Valencia and Vigo, for the period 1992-1994. Because the dependent variable was a count, a Poisson generalised linear model was first specified. Several modelling issues are worth mentioning. Firstly, because the relations between mortality and explanatory variables were non-linear, cubic splines were used for covariate control, leading to a generalised additive model, GAM. Secondly, the effects of the predictors on the response were allowed to occur with some lag. Thirdly, the residual autocorrelation, because of imperfect control, was controlled for by means of an autoregressive Poisson GAM. Finally, the longitudinal design demanded the consideration of the existence of individual heterogeneity, requiring the consideration of mixed models. The estimates of the relative risks obtained from the individual analyses varied across cities, particularly those associated with sulphur dioxide. The highest relative risks corresponded to black smoke in Valencia. These estimates were higher than those obtained from the ecological-longitudinal analysis. Relative risks estimated from this latter analysis were practically identical across cities, 1.00638 (95% confidence intervals 1.0002, 1.0011) for a black smoke increase of 10 microg/m(3) and 1.00415 (95% CI 1.0001, 1.0007) for a increase of 10 microg/m(3) of sulphur dioxide. Because the statistical power is higher than in the individual analysis more interactions were statistically significant, especially those among air pollutants and meteorological variables. Air pollutant levels were related to mortality in the three cities of the study, Barcelona, Valencia and Vigo. These results were consistent with similar studies in other cities, with other multicentric studies and coherent with both, previous individual, for each city, and multicentric studies for all three cities.

The true meaning of 'exotic species' as a model for genetically engineered organisms.

PubMed

Regal, P J

1993-03-15

The exotic or non-indigenous species model for deliberately introduced genetically engineered organisms (GEOs) has often been misunderstood or misrepresented. Yet proper comparisons of of ecologically competent GEOs to the patterns of adaptation of introduced species have been highly useful among scientists in attempting to determine how to apply biological theory to specific GEO risk issues, and in attempting to define the probabilities and scale of ecological risks with GEOs. In truth, the model predicts that most projects may be environmentally safe, but a significant minority may be very risky. The model includes a history of institutional follies that also should remind workers of the danger of oversimplifying biological issues, and warn against repeating the sorts of professional misjudgements that have too often been made in introducing organisms to new settings. We once expected that the non-indigenous species model would be refined by more analysis of species eruptions, ecological genetics, and the biology of select GEOs themselves, as outlined. But there has been political resistance to the effective regulation of GEOs, and a bureaucratic tendency to focus research agendas on narrow data collection. Thus there has been too little promotion by responsible agencies of studies to provide the broad conceptual base for truly science-based regulation. In its presently unrefined state, the non-indigenous species comparison would overestimate the risks of GEOs if it were (mis)applied to genetically disrupted, ecologically crippled GEOs, but in some cases of wild-type organisms with novel engineered traits, it could greatly underestimate the risks. Further analysis is urgently needed.

Model application niche analysis: An approach for assessing the transferability and generalizability of ecological models

EPA Science Inventory

A 30-year review of predictive models used in regulatory decision-making, revealed that transferring models to contexts other than that for which the models were developed was one of the biggest vulnerabilities to their legal defensibility. The use and transfer of models by ecolo...

An Integrated Ecological Modeling System for Assessing ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

We demonstrate a novel, spatially explicit assessment of the current condition of aquatic ecosystem services, with limited sensitivity analysis for the atmospheric contaminant mercury. The Integrated Ecological Modeling System (IEMS) forecasts water quality and quantity, habitat suitability for aquatic biota, fish biomasses, population densities, productivities, and contamination by methylmercury across headwater watersheds. We applied this IEMS to the Coal River Basin (CRB), West Virginia (USA), an 8-digit hydrologic unit watershed, by simulating a network of 97 stream segments using the SWAT watershed model, a watershed mercury loading model, the WASP water quality model, the PiSCES fish community estimation model, a fish habitat suitability model, the BASS fish community and bioaccumulation model, and an ecoservices post-processer. Model application was facilitated by automated data retrieval and model setup and updated model wrappers and interfaces for data transfers between these models from a prior study. This companion study evaluates baseline predictions of ecoservices provided for 1990 – 2010 for the population of streams in the CRB and serves as a foundation for future model development. Published in the journal, Ecological Modeling. Highlights: • Demonstrate a spatially-explicit IEMS for multiple scales. • Design a flexible IEMS for

Downscaling future climate scenarios to fine scales for hydrologic and ecological modeling and analysis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Flint, Lorraine E.; Flint, Alan L.

2012-01-01

The methodology, which includes a sequence of rigorous analyses and calculations, is intended to reduce the addition of uncertainty to the climate data as a result of the downscaling while providing the fine-scale climate information necessary for ecological analyses. It results in new but consistent data sets for the US at 4 km, the southwest US at 270 m, and California at 90 m and illustrates the utility of fine-scale downscaling to analyses of ecological processes influenced by topographic complexity.

Disentangling Mechanisms That Mediate the Balance Between Stochastic and Deterministic Processes in Microbial Succession

DOE PAGES

Dini-Andreote, Francisco; Stegen, James C.; van Elsas, Jan D.; ...

2015-03-17

Despite growing recognition that deterministic and stochastic factors simultaneously influence bacterial communities, little is known about mechanisms shifting their relative importance. To better understand underlying mechanisms, we developed a conceptual model linking ecosystem development during primary succession to shifts in the stochastic/deterministic balance. To evaluate the conceptual model we coupled spatiotemporal data on soil bacterial communities with environmental conditions spanning 105 years of salt marsh development. At the local scale there was a progression from stochasticity to determinism due to Na accumulation with increasing ecosystem age, supporting a main element of the conceptual model. At the regional-scale, soil organic mattermore » (SOM) governed the relative influence of stochasticity and the type of deterministic ecological selection, suggesting scale-dependency in how deterministic ecological selection is imposed. Analysis of a new ecological simulation model supported these conceptual inferences. Looking forward, we propose an extended conceptual model that integrates primary and secondary succession in microbial systems.« less

COMMUNITY LEVEL ANALYSIS OF VECTOR-BORNE DISEASE

EPA Science Inventory

Ecological community structure is particularly important in vector-borne zoonotic diseases with complex life cycles. Single population models, such as the so-called Ross-Macdonald model (Baily, 1982), have been important in developing and characterizing our current understanding...

Division within the North American boreal forest: Ecological niche divergence between the Bicknell's Thrush (Catharus bicknelli) and Gray-cheeked Thrush (C. minimus).

PubMed

FitzGerald, Alyssa M

2017-07-01

Sister species that diverged in allopatry in similar environments are expected to exhibit niche conservatism. Using ecological niche modeling and a multivariate analysis of climate and habitat data, I test the hypothesis that the Bicknell's Thrush ( Catharus bicknelli ) and Gray-cheeked Thrush ( C. mimimus ), sister species that breed in the North American boreal forest, show niche conservatism. Three tree species that are important components of breeding territories of both thrush species were combined with climatic variables to create niche models consisting of abiotic and biotic components. Abiotic-only, abiotic+biotic, and biotic-only models were evaluated using the area under the curve (AUC) criterion. Abiotic+biotic models had higher AUC scores and did not over-project thrush distributions compared to abiotic-only or biotic-only models. From the abiotic+biotic models, I tested for niche conservatism or divergence by accounting for the differences in the availability of niche components by calculating (1) niche overlap from ecological niche models and (2) mean niche differences of environmental values at occurrence points. Niche background similarity tests revealed significant niche divergence in 10 of 12 comparisons, and multivariate tests revealed niche divergence along 2 of 3 niche axes. The Bicknell's Thrush breeds in warmer and wetter regions with a high abundance of balsam fir ( Abies balsamea ), whereas Gray-cheeked Thrush often co-occurs with black spruce ( Picea mariana ). Niche divergence, rather than conservatism, was the predominant pattern for these species, suggesting that ecological divergence has played a role in the speciation of the Bicknell's Thrush and Gray-cheeked Thrush. Furthermore, because niche models were improved by the incorporation of biotic variables, this study validates the inclusion of relevant biotic factors in ecological niche modeling to increase model accuracy.

A Bayesian Approach to Integrated Ecological and Human Health Risk Assessment for the South River, Virginia Mercury-Contaminated Site.

PubMed

Harris, Meagan J; Stinson, Jonah; Landis, Wayne G

2017-07-01

We conducted a regional-scale integrated ecological and human health risk assessment by applying the relative risk model with Bayesian networks (BN-RRM) to a case study of the South River, Virginia mercury-contaminated site. Risk to four ecological services of the South River (human health, water quality, recreation, and the recreational fishery) was evaluated using a multiple stressor-multiple endpoint approach. These four ecological services were selected as endpoints based on stakeholder feedback and prioritized management goals for the river. The BN-RRM approach allowed for the calculation of relative risk to 14 biotic, human health, recreation, and water quality endpoints from chemical and ecological stressors in five risk regions of the South River. Results indicated that water quality and the recreational fishery were the ecological services at highest risk in the South River. Human health risk for users of the South River was low relative to the risk to other endpoints. Risk to recreation in the South River was moderate with little spatial variability among the five risk regions. Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis identified stressors and other parameters that influence risk for each endpoint in each risk region. This research demonstrates a probabilistic approach to integrated ecological and human health risk assessment that considers the effects of chemical and ecological stressors across the landscape. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

[Aquatic Ecological Index based on freshwater (ICE(RN-MAE)) for the Rio Negro watershed, Colombia].

PubMed

Forero, Laura Cristina; Longo, Magnolia; John Jairo, Ramirez; Guillermo, Chalar

2014-04-01

Aquatic Ecological Index based on freshwater (ICE(RN-MAE)) for the Rio Negro watershed, Colombia. Available indices to assess the ecological status of rivers in Colombia are mostly based on subjective hypotheses about macroinvertebrate tolerance to pollution, which have important limitations. Here we present the application of a method to establish an index of ecological quality for lotic systems in Colombia. The index, based on macroinvertebrate abundance and physicochemical variables, was developed as an alternative to the BMWP-Col index. The method consists on determining an environmental gradient from correlations between physicochemical variables and abundance. The scores obtained in each sampling point are used in a standardized correlation for a model of weighted averages (WA). In the WA model abundances are also weighted to estimate the optimum and tolerance values of each taxon; using this information we estimated the index of ecological quality based also on macroinvertebrate (ICE(RN-MAE)) abundance in each sampling site. Subsequently, we classified all sites using the index and concentrations of total phosphorus (TP) in a cluster analysis. Using TP and ICE(RN-MAE), mean, maximum, minimum and standard deviation, we defined threshold values corresponding to three categories of ecological status: good, fair and critical.

Linking catchment characteristics and water chemistry with the ecological status of Irish rivers.

PubMed

Donohue, Ian; McGarrigle, Martin L; Mills, Paul

2006-01-01

Requirements of the EU Water Framework Directive for the introduction of ecological quality objectives for surface waters and the stipulation that all surface waters in the EU must be of 'good' ecological status by 2015 necessitate a quantitative understanding of the linkages among catchment attributes, water chemistry and the ecological status of aquatic ecosystems. Analysis of lotic ecological status, as indicated by an established biotic index based primarily on benthic macroinvertebrate community structure, of 797 hydrologically independent river sites located throughout Ireland showed highly significant inverse associations between the ecological status of rivers and measures of catchment urbanisation and agricultural intensity, densities of humans and cattle and chemical indicators of water quality. Stepwise logistic regression suggested that urbanisation, arable farming and extent of pasturelands are the principal factors impacting on the ecological status of streams and rivers in Ireland and that the likelihood of a river site complying with the demands of the EU Water Framework Directive, and be of 'good' ecological status, can be predicted with reasonable accuracy using simple models that utilise either widely available landcover data or chemical monitoring data. Non-linear landcover and chemical 'thresholds' derived from these models provide a useful tool in the management of risk in catchments, and suggest strongly that more careful planning of land use in Ireland is essential in order to restore and maintain water quality as required by the Directive.

. Ecological conceptual models: a framework and case study on ecosystem management for South Florida sustainability

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gentile, J.H.; Harwell, M.A.; Cropper, W.; Harwell, C. C.; DeAngelis, Donald L.; Davis, S.; Ogden, J.C.; Lirman, D.

2001-01-01

The Everglades and South Florida ecosystems are the focus of national and international attention because of their current degraded and threatened state. Ecological risk assessment, sustainability and ecosystem and adaptive management principles and processes are being used nationally as a decision and policy framework for a variety of types of ecological assessments. The intent of this study is to demonstrate the application of these paradigms and principles at a regional scale. The effects-directed assessment approach used in this study consists of a retrospective, eco-epidemiological phase to determine the causes for the current conditions and a prospective predictive risk-based assessment using scenario analysis to evaluate future options. Embedded in these assessment phases is a process that begins with the identification of goals and societal preferences which are used to develop an integrated suite of risk-based and policy relevant conceptual models. Conceptual models are used to illustrate the linkages among management (societal) actions, environmental stressors, and societal/ecological effects, and provide the basis for developing and testing causal hypotheses. These models, developed for a variety of landscape units and their drivers, stressors, and endpoints, are used to formulate hypotheses to explain the current conditions. They are also used as the basis for structuring management scenarios and analyses to project the temporal and spatial magnitude of risk reduction and system recovery. Within the context of recovery, the conceptual models are used in the initial development of performance criteria for those stressors that are determined to be most important in shaping the landscape, and to guide the use of numerical models used to develop quantitative performance criteria in the scenario analysis. The results will be discussed within an ecosystem and adaptive management framework that provides the foundation for decision making.

Ecological conceptual models: a framework and case study on ecosystem management for South Florida sustainability.

PubMed

Gentile, J H; Harwell, M A; Cropper, W; Harwell, C C; DeAngelis, D; Davis, S; Ogden, J C; Lirman, D

2001-07-02

The Everglades and South Florida ecosystems are the focus of national and international attention because of their current degraded and threatened state. Ecological risk assessment, sustainability, and ecosystem and adaptive management principles and processes are being used nationally as a decision and policy framework for a variety of types of ecological assessments. The intent of this study is to demonstrate the application of these paradigms and principles at a regional scale. The effects-directed assessment approach used in this study consists of a retrospective, eco-epidemiological phase to determine the causes for the current conditions and a prospective predictive risk-based assessment using scenario analysis to evaluate future options. Embedded in these assessment phases is a process that begins with the identification of goals and societal preferences which are used to develop an integrated suite of risk-based and policy relevant conceptual models. Conceptual models are used to illustrate the linkages among management (societal) actions, environmental stressors, and societal/ecological effects, and provide the basis for developing and testing causal hypotheses. These models, developed for a variety of landscape units and their drivers, stressors, and endpoints, are used to formulate hypotheses to explain the current conditions. They are also used as the basis for structuring management scenarios and analyses to project the temporal and spatial magnitude of risk reduction and system recovery. Within the context of recovery, the conceptual models are used in the initial development of performance criteria for those stressors that are determined to be most important in shaping the landscape, and to guide the use of numerical models used to develop quantitative performance criteria in the scenario analysis. The results will be discussed within an ecosystem and adaptive management framework that provides the foundation for decision making.

CONVERTING ISOTOPE RATIOS TO DIET COMPOSITION - THE USE OF MIXING MODELS

EPA Science Inventory

Investigations of wildlife foraging ecology with stable isotope analysis are increasing. Converting isotope values to proportions of different foods in a consumer's diet requires the use of mixing models. Simple mixing models based on mass balance equations have been used for d...

A probabilistic process model for pelagic marine ecosystems informed by Bayesian inverse analysis

EPA Science Inventory

Marine ecosystems are complex systems with multiple pathways that produce feedback cycles, which may lead to unanticipated effects. Models abstract this complexity and allow us to predict, understand, and hypothesize. In ecological models, however, the paucity of empirical data...

OCAM - A CELSS modeling tool: Description and results. [Object-oriented Controlled Ecological Life Support System Analysis and Modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Drysdale, Alan; Thomas, Mark; Fresa, Mark; Wheeler, Ray

1992-01-01

Controlled Ecological Life Support System (CELSS) technology is critical to the Space Exploration Initiative. NASA's Kennedy Space Center has been performing CELSS research for several years, developing data related to CELSS design. We have developed OCAM (Object-oriented CELSS Analysis and Modeling), a CELSS modeling tool, and have used this tool to evaluate CELSS concepts, using this data. In using OCAM, a CELSS is broken down into components, and each component is modeled as a combination of containers, converters, and gates which store, process, and exchange carbon, hydrogen, and oxygen on a daily basis. Multiple crops and plant types can be simulated. Resource recovery options modeled include combustion, leaching, enzyme treatment, aerobic or anaerobic digestion, and mushroom and fish growth. Results include printouts and time-history graphs of total system mass, biomass, carbon dioxide, and oxygen quantities; energy consumption; and manpower requirements. The contributions of mass, energy, and manpower to system cost have been analyzed to compare configurations and determine appropriate research directions.

Acquisition and production of skilled behavior in dynamic decision-making tasks. Semiannual Status Report M.S. Thesis - Georgia Inst. of Tech., Nov. 1992

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kirlik, Alex; Kossack, Merrick Frank

1993-01-01

This status report consists of a thesis entitled 'Ecological Task Analysis: A Method for Display Enhancements.' Previous use of various analysis processes for the purpose of display interface design or enhancement has run the risk of failing to improve user performance due to the analysis resulting in only a sequencial listing of user tasks. Adopting an ecological approach to performing the task analysis, however, may result in the necessary modeling of an unpredictable and variable task domain required to improve user performance. Kirlik has proposed an Ecological Task Analysis framework which is designed for this purpose. It is the purpose of this research to measure this framework's effectiveness at enhancing display interfaces in order to improve user performance. Following the proposed framework, an ecological task analysis of experienced users of a complex and dynamic laboratory task, Star Cruiser, was performed. Based on this analysis, display enhancements were proposed and implemented. An experiment was then conducted to compare this new version of Star Cruiser to the original. By measuring user performance at different tasks, it was determined that during early sessions, use of the enhanced display contributed to better user performance compared to that achieved using the original display. Furthermore, the results indicate that the enhancements proposed as a result of the ecological task analysis affected user performance differently depending on whether they are enhancements which aid in the selection of a possible action or in the performance of an action. Generalizations of these findings to larger, more complex systems were avoided since the analysis was only performed on this one particular system.

Research on the Mechanism of Cross Regional Grassland Ecological Compensation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Ran; Ma, Jun

2018-01-01

In recent years, grassland environmental damage has become serious, and grassland resources protection task has become heavy, grassland ecological compensation has become an effective way to solve this problem; but the current grassland ecological compensation standards were low, the effect is poor. The fundamental reason is the model of administrative division destroys the integrity of grassland. Based on the analysis of the status quo of grassland compensation, this paper tries to protect the grassland integrity, breaks the administrative division restriction, implements the space regulation, constructs the framework of cross-regional grassland ecological compensation mechanism, describes its operation process. It provides new way to realize the sustainable development of the grassland environment.

Considerations in representing human individuals in social ecological models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Manfredo, Michael J.; Teel, Tara L.; Gavin, Michael C.; Fulton, David C.

2017-01-01

In this chapter we focus on how to integrate the human individual into social-ecological systems analysis, and how to improve research on individual thought and action regarding the environment by locating it within the broader social-ecological context. We discuss three key questions as considerations for future research: (1) is human thought conceptualized as a dynamic and adaptive process, (2) is the individual placed in a multi-level context (including within-person levels, person-group interactions, and institutional and structural factors), and (3) is human thought seen as mutually constructed with the social and natural environment. Increased emphasis on the individual will be essential if we are to understand agency, innovation, and adaptation in social-ecological systems.

Mālama I Ka `Āina, Sustainability: learning from Hawai`i's displaced place and culture-based science standard

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chinn, Pauline W. U.

2011-03-01

This response to Mitchell and Mueller's "A philosophical analysis of David Orr's theory of ecological literacy" comments on their critique of Orr's use of the phrase "ecological crisis" and what I perceive as their conflicting views of "crisis." I present my views on ecological crisis informed by standpoint theory and the definition of crisis as turning point. I connect the concept of turning point to tipping point as used in ecology to describe potentially irreversible changes in coupled social-ecological systems. I suggest that sustainable societies may provide models of adaptive learning in which monitoring of ecological phenomena is coupled to human behavior to mitigate threats to sustainability before a crisis/tipping point is reached. Finally, I discuss the Hawai`i State Department of Education's removal of its Indigenous science content standard Mālama I Ka `Āina, Sustainability and its continued use in community-based projects.

An Ecological Analysis of the Dynamics of Localities: A 14+ Low Opportunity Progression Equilibrium in Action

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hodgson, Ann; Spours, Ken

2015-01-01

This article uses a multi-level ecological model to explore the dynamics of localities in England and their effects on the 14+ participation, progression and transition (14+ PPT) of young people at a time when nationally and internationally there is a recognition that transitions from education to employment are both more complex and take longer.…

The Relative Importance of the Vadose Zone in Multimedia Risk Assessment Modeling Applied at a National Scale: An Analysis of Benzene Using 3MRA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Babendreier, J. E.

2002-05-01

Evaluating uncertainty and parameter sensitivity in environmental models can be a difficult task, even for low-order, single-media constructs driven by a unique set of site-specific data. The challenge of examining ever more complex, integrated, higher-order models is a formidable one, particularly in regulatory settings applied on a national scale. Quantitative assessment of uncertainty and sensitivity within integrated, multimedia models that simulate hundreds of sites, spanning multiple geographical and ecological regions, will ultimately require a systematic, comparative approach coupled with sufficient computational power. The Multimedia, Multipathway, and Multireceptor Risk Assessment Model (3MRA) is an important code being developed by the United States Environmental Protection Agency for use in site-scale risk assessment (e.g. hazardous waste management facilities). The model currently entails over 700 variables, 185 of which are explicitly stochastic. The 3MRA can start with a chemical concentration in a waste management unit (WMU). It estimates the release and transport of the chemical throughout the environment, and predicts associated exposure and risk. The 3MRA simulates multimedia (air, water, soil, sediments), pollutant fate and transport, multipathway exposure routes (food ingestion, water ingestion, soil ingestion, air inhalation, etc.), multireceptor exposures (resident, gardener, farmer, fisher, ecological habitats and populations), and resulting risk (human cancer and non-cancer effects, ecological population and community effects). The 3MRA collates the output for an overall national risk assessment, offering a probabilistic strategy as a basis for regulatory decisions. To facilitate model execution of 3MRA for purposes of conducting uncertainty and sensitivity analysis, a PC-based supercomputer cluster was constructed. Design of SuperMUSE, a 125 GHz Windows-based Supercomputer for Model Uncertainty and Sensitivity Evaluation is described, along with the conceptual layout of an accompanying java-based paralleling software toolset. Preliminary work is also reported for a scenario involving Benzene disposal that describes the relative importance of the vadose zone in driving risk levels for ecological receptors and human health. Incorporating landfills, waste piles, aerated tanks, surface impoundments, and land application units, the site-based data used in the analysis included 201 national facilities representing 419 site-WMU combinations.

Development and assessment of an integrated ecological modelling framework to assess the effect of investments in wastewater treatment on water quality.

PubMed

Holguin-Gonzalez, Javier E; Boets, Pieter; Everaert, Gert; Pauwels, Ine S; Lock, Koen; Gobeyn, Sacha; Benedetti, Lorenzo; Amerlinck, Youri; Nopens, Ingmar; Goethals, Peter L M

2014-01-01

Worldwide, large investments in wastewater treatment are made to improve water quality. However, the impacts of these investments on river water quality are often not quantified. To assess water quality, the European Water Framework Directive (WFD) requires an integrated approach. The aim of this study was to develop an integrated ecological modelling framework for the River Drava (Croatia) that includes physical-chemical and hydromorphological characteristics as well as the ecological river water quality status. The developed submodels and the integrated model showed accurate predictions when comparing the modelled results to the observations. Dissolved oxygen and nitrogen concentrations (ammonium and organic nitrogen) were the most important variables in determining the ecological water quality (EWQ). The result of three potential investment scenarios of the wastewater treatment infrastructure in the city of Varaždin on the EWQ of the River Drava was assessed. From this scenario-based analysis, it was concluded that upgrading the existing wastewater treatment plant with nitrogen and phosphorus removal will be insufficient to reach a good EWQ. Therefore, other point and diffuse pollution sources in the area should also be monitored and remediated to meet the European WFD standards.

Conservation success as a function of good alignment of social and ecological structures and processes.

PubMed

Bodin, Orjan; Crona, Beatrice; Thyresson, Matilda; Golz, Anna-Lea; Tengö, Maria

2014-10-01

How to create and adjust governing institutions so that they align (fit) with complex ecosystem processes and structures across scales is an issue of increasing concern in conservation. It is argued that lack of such social-ecological fit makes governance and conservation difficult, yet progress in explicitly defining and rigorously testing what constitutes a good fit has been limited. We used a novel modeling approach and data from case studies of fishery and forest conservation to empirically test presumed relationships between conservation outcomes and certain patterns of alignment of social-ecological interdependences. Our approach made it possible to analyze conservation outcome on a systems level while also providing information on how individual actors are positioned in the complex web of social-ecological interdependencies. We found that when actors who shared resources were also socially linked, conservation at the level of the whole social-ecological system was positively affected. When the scales at which individual actors used resources and the scale at which ecological resources were interconnected to other ecological resources were aligned through tightened feedback loops, conservation outcome was better than when they were not aligned. The analysis of individual actors' positions in the web of social-ecological interdependencies was helpful in understanding why a system has a certain level of social-ecological fit. Results of analysis of positions showed that different actors contributed in very different ways to achieve a certain fit and revealed some underlying difference between the actors, for example in terms of actors' varying rights to access and use different ecological resources. © 2014 Society for Conservation Biology.

Changing skewness: an early warning signal of regime shifts in ecosystems.

PubMed

Guttal, Vishwesha; Jayaprakash, Ciriyam

2008-05-01

Empirical evidence for large-scale abrupt changes in ecosystems such as lakes and vegetation of semi-arid regions is growing. Such changes, called regime shifts, can lead to degradation of ecological services. We study simple ecological models that show a catastrophic transition as a control parameter is varied and propose a novel early warning signal that exploits two ubiquitous features of ecological systems: nonlinearity and large external fluctuations. Either reduced resilience or increased external fluctuations can tip ecosystems to an alternative stable state. It is shown that changes in asymmetry in the distribution of time series data, quantified by changing skewness, is a model-independent and reliable early warning signal for both routes to regime shifts. Furthermore, using model simulations that mimic field measurements and a simple analysis of real data from abrupt climate change in the Sahara, we study the feasibility of skewness calculations using data available from routine monitoring.

[Spatial-temporal pattern and obstacle factors of cultivated land ecological security in major grain producing areas of northeast China: a case study in Jilin Province].

PubMed

Zhao, Hong-Bo; Ma, Yan-Ji

2014-02-01

According to the cultivated land ecological security in major grain production areas of Northeast China, this paper selected 48 counties of Jilin Province as the research object. Based on the PSR-EES conceptual framework model, an evaluation index system of cultivated land ecological security was built. By using the improved TOPSIS, Markov chains, GIS spatial analysis and obstacle degree models, the spatial-temporal pattern of cultivated land ecological security and the obstacle factors were analyzed from 1995 to 2011 in Jilin Province. The results indicated that, the composite index of cultivated land ecological security appeared in a rising trend in Jilin Province from 1995 to 2011, and the cultivated land ecological security level changed from being sensitive to being general. There was a pattern of 'Club Convergence' in cultivated land ecological security level in each county and the spatial discrepancy tended to become larger. The 'Polarization' trend of cultivated land ecological security level was obvious. The distributions of sensitive level and critical security level with ribbon patterns tended to be dispersed, the general security level and relative security levels concentrated, and the distributions of security level scattered. The unstable trend of cultivated land ecological security level was more and more obvious. The main obstacle factors that affected the cultivated land ecological security level in Jilin Province were rural net income per capita, economic density, the proportion of environmental protection investment in GDP, degree of machinery cultivation and the comprehensive utilization rate of industrial solid wastes.

Habitat classification modeling with incomplete data: Pushing the habitat envelope

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zarnetske, P.L.; Edwards, T.C.; Moisen, Gretchen G.

2007-01-01

Habitat classification models (HCMs) are invaluable tools for species conservation, land-use planning, reserve design, and metapopulation assessments, particularly at broad spatial scales. However, species occurrence data are often lacking and typically limited to presence points at broad scales. This lack of absence data precludes the use of many statistical techniques for HCMs. One option is to generate pseudo-absence points so that the many available statistical modeling tools can be used. Traditional techniques generate pseudoabsence points at random across broadly defined species ranges, often failing to include biological knowledge concerning the species-habitat relationship. We incorporated biological knowledge of the species-habitat relationship into pseudo-absence points by creating habitat envelopes that constrain the region from which points were randomly selected. We define a habitat envelope as an ecological representation of a species, or species feature's (e.g., nest) observed distribution (i.e., realized niche) based on a single attribute, or the spatial intersection of multiple attributes. We created HCMs for Northern Goshawk (Accipiter gentilis atricapillus) nest habitat during the breeding season across Utah forests with extant nest presence points and ecologically based pseudo-absence points using logistic regression. Predictor variables were derived from 30-m USDA Landfire and 250-m Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) map products. These habitat-envelope-based models were then compared to null envelope models which use traditional practices for generating pseudo-absences. Models were assessed for fit and predictive capability using metrics such as kappa, thresholdindependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) plots, adjusted deviance (Dadj2), and cross-validation, and were also assessed for ecological relevance. For all cases, habitat envelope-based models outperformed null envelope models and were more ecologically relevant, suggesting that incorporating biological knowledge into pseudo-absence point generation is a powerful tool for species habitat assessments. Furthermore, given some a priori knowledge of the species-habitat relationship, ecologically based pseudo-absence points can be applied to any species, ecosystem, data resolution, and spatial extent. ?? 2007 by the Ecological Society of America.

[Ecological suitability assessment and optimization of urban land expansion space in Guiyang City].

PubMed

Qiu, Cong-hao; Li, Yang-bing; Feng, Yuan-song

2015-09-01

Based on the case study of Guiyang City, the minimum cumulative resistance model integrating construction land source, ecological rigid constraints and ecological function type resistance factor, was built by use of cost-distance analysis of urban spatial expansion resistance value through ArcGIS 9.3 software in this paper. Then, the ecological resistance of city spatial expansion of Guiyang from 2010 was simulated dynamically and the ecological suitability classification of city spatial expansion was assessed. According to the conflict between the newly increased city construction land in 2014 and its ecological suitability, the unreasonable city land spatial allocation was discussed also. The results showed that the ecological suitability zonation and the city expansion in the study area were basically consistent during 2010-2014, but the conflict between the new city construction and its land ecological suitability was more serious. The ecological conflict area accounted for 58.2% of the new city construction sites, 35.4% of which happened in the ecological control area, 13.9% in the limited development area and 8.9% in the prohibition development area. The intensification of ecological land use conflict would impair the ecological service function and ecological safety, so this paper put forward the city spatial expansion optimal path to preserve the ecological land and improve the construction land space pattern of Guiyang City so as to ensure its ecological safety.

Effect of the initial domain on the dispersion dynamics of a diffusing substance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bestuzheva, A. N.; Smirnov, A. L.

2018-05-01

The formulation and analysis of ecological problems involves the mathematical modeling, when some assumptions concerning the nature of the processes are introduced. These assumptions must be justified. In the present paper the effect of the form of the initial domain occupied with a diffusing substance on the process of diffusion is studied. It's shown that the form of the initial domain plays unimportant role and it may be modeled as semi-sphere, for which the problem has analytical solution. That solution may serves as the zeroth approximation in modeling of actual ecological problem taking into account the relief of the bottom and the bottom currents.

Modeling of the ecological niches of the anopheles spp in Ecuador by the use of geo-informatic tools.

PubMed

Padilla, Oswaldo; Rosas, Pablo; Moreno, Wilson; Toulkeridis, Theofilos

2017-06-01

Ecuador in the northwestern edge of South America is struggling by vector-borne diseases with an endemic-epidemic behavior leading to an enormous public health problem. Malaria, which has a cyclicality in its dynamics, is closely related to climatic, ecological and socio-economic phenomena. The main objective of this research has been to compare three different prediction species models, the so-called Maxent, logistic regression and multi criteria evaluation with fuzzy logic, in order to determine the model which best describes the ecological niche of the Anopheles spp species, which transmits malaria within Ecuador. After performing a detailed data collection and data processing, we applied the mentioned models and validated them with a statistical analysis in order to discover that the Maxent model has been the model that best defines the distribution of Anopheles spp within the territory. The determined sites, which are of high strategic value and important for the increasing national development, will now be able to initiate preventive countermeasures based on this study. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Bayesian data analysis in population ecology: motivations, methods, and benefits

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dorazio, Robert

2016-01-01

During the 20th century ecologists largely relied on the frequentist system of inference for the analysis of their data. However, in the past few decades ecologists have become increasingly interested in the use of Bayesian methods of data analysis. In this article I provide guidance to ecologists who would like to decide whether Bayesian methods can be used to improve their conclusions and predictions. I begin by providing a concise summary of Bayesian methods of analysis, including a comparison of differences between Bayesian and frequentist approaches to inference when using hierarchical models. Next I provide a list of problems where Bayesian methods of analysis may arguably be preferred over frequentist methods. These problems are usually encountered in analyses based on hierarchical models of data. I describe the essentials required for applying modern methods of Bayesian computation, and I use real-world examples to illustrate these methods. I conclude by summarizing what I perceive to be the main strengths and weaknesses of using Bayesian methods to solve ecological inference problems.

Beyond positivist ecology: toward an integrated ecological ethics.

PubMed

Norton, Bryan G

2008-12-01

A post-positivist understanding of ecological science and the call for an "ecological ethic" indicate the need for a radically new approach to evaluating environmental change. The positivist view of science cannot capture the essence of environmental sciences because the recent work of "reflexive" ecological modelers shows that this requires a reconceptualization of the way in which values and ecological models interact in scientific process. Reflexive modelers are ecological modelers who believe it is appropriate for ecologists to examine the motives for their choices in developing models; this self-reflexive approach opens the door to a new way of integrating values into public discourse and to a more comprehensive approach to evaluating ecological change. This reflexive building of ecological models is introduced through the transformative simile of Aldo Leopold, which shows that learning to "think like a mountain" involves a shift in both ecological modeling and in values and responsibility. An adequate, interdisciplinary approach to ecological valuation, requires a re-framing of the evaluation questions in entirely new ways, i.e., a review of the current status of interdisciplinary value theory with respect to ecological values reveals that neither of the widely accepted theories of environmental value-neither economic utilitarianism nor intrinsic value theory (environmental ethics)-provides a foundation for an ecologically sensitive evaluation process. Thus, a new, ecologically sensitive, and more comprehensive approach to evaluating ecological change would include an examination of the metaphors that motivate the models used to describe environmental change.

Divergence is not enough: the use of ecological niche models for the validation of taxon boundaries.

PubMed

Dagnino, D; Minuto, L; Casazza, G

2017-11-01

Delimiting taxon boundaries is crucial for any evolutionary research and conservation regulation. In order to avoid mistaken description of species, the approach of integrative taxonomy recommends considering multidisciplinary lines of evidence, including ecology. Unfortunately, ecological data are often difficult to quantify objectively. Here we test and discuss the potential use of ecological niche models for validating taxon boundaries, using three pairs of closely related plant taxa endemic to the south-western Alps as a case study. We also discuss the application of ecological niche models for species delimitation and the implementation of different approaches. Niche overlap, niche equivalency and niche similarity were assessed both in multidimensional environmental space and in geographic space to look for differences in the niche of three pairs of closely related plant taxa. We detected a high degree of niche differentiation between taxa although this result seems not due to differences in habitat selection. The different statistical tests gave contrasting outcomes between environmental and geographic spaces. According to our results, niche divergence does not seem to support taxon boundaries at species level, but may have had important consequences for local adaptation and in generating phenotypic diversity at intraspecific level. Environmental space analysis should be preferred to geographic space as it provides more clear results. Even if the different analyses widely disagree in their conclusions about taxon boundaries, our study suggests that ecological niche models may help taxonomists to reach a decision. © 2017 German Botanical Society and The Royal Botanical Society of the Netherlands.

How much detail and accuracy is required in plant growth sub-models to address questions about optimal management strategies in agricultural systems?

PubMed Central

Renton, Michael

2011-01-01

Background and aims Simulations that integrate sub-models of important biological processes can be used to ask questions about optimal management strategies in agricultural and ecological systems. Building sub-models with more detail and aiming for greater accuracy and realism may seem attractive, but is likely to be more expensive and time-consuming and result in more complicated models that lack transparency. This paper illustrates a general integrated approach for constructing models of agricultural and ecological systems that is based on the principle of starting simple and then directly testing for the need to add additional detail and complexity. Methodology The approach is demonstrated using LUSO (Land Use Sequence Optimizer), an agricultural system analysis framework based on simulation and optimization. A simple sensitivity analysis and functional perturbation analysis is used to test to what extent LUSO's crop–weed competition sub-model affects the answers to a number of questions at the scale of the whole farming system regarding optimal land-use sequencing strategies and resulting profitability. Principal results The need for accuracy in the crop–weed competition sub-model within LUSO depended to a small extent on the parameter being varied, but more importantly and interestingly on the type of question being addressed with the model. Only a small part of the crop–weed competition model actually affects the answers to these questions. Conclusions This study illustrates an example application of the proposed integrated approach for constructing models of agricultural and ecological systems based on testing whether complexity needs to be added to address particular questions of interest. We conclude that this example clearly demonstrates the potential value of the general approach. Advantages of this approach include minimizing costs and resources required for model construction, keeping models transparent and easy to analyse, and ensuring the model is well suited to address the question of interest. PMID:22476477

Meta-analysis of high-latitude nitrogen-addition and warming studies implies ecological mechanisms overlooked by land models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bouskill, N. J.; Riley, W. J.; Tang, J. Y.

2014-12-01

Accurate representation of ecosystem processes in land models is crucial for reducing predictive uncertainty in energy and greenhouse gas feedbacks with the climate. Here we describe an observational and modeling meta-analysis approach to benchmark land models, and apply the method to the land model CLM4.5 with two versions of belowground biogeochemistry. We focused our analysis on the aboveground and belowground responses to warming and nitrogen addition in high-latitude ecosystems, and identified absent or poorly parameterized mechanisms in CLM4.5. While the two model versions predicted similar soil carbon stock trajectories following both warming and nitrogen addition, other predicted variables (e.g., belowground respiration) differed from observations in both magnitude and direction, indicating that CLM4.5 has inadequate underlying mechanisms for representing high-latitude ecosystems. On the basis of observational synthesis, we attribute the model-observation differences to missing representations of microbial dynamics, aboveground and belowground coupling, and nutrient cycling, and we use the observational meta-analysis to discuss potential approaches to improving the current models. However, we also urge caution concerning the selection of data sets and experiments for meta-analysis. For example, the concentrations of nitrogen applied in the synthesized field experiments (average = 72 kg ha-1 yr-1) are many times higher than projected soil nitrogen concentrations (from nitrogen deposition and release during mineralization), which precludes a rigorous evaluation of the model responses to likely nitrogen perturbations. Overall, we demonstrate that elucidating ecological mechanisms via meta-analysis can identify deficiencies in ecosystem models and empirical experiments.

Social-ecological predictors of global invasions and extinctions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lotz, Aaron; Allen, Craig R.

2013-01-01

Most assessments of resilience have been focused on local conditions. Studies focused on the relationship between humanity and environmental degradation are rare, and are rarely comprehensive. We investigated multiple social-ecological factors for 100 countries around the globe in relation to the percentage of invasions and extinctions within each country. These 100 countries contain approximately 87% of the world’s population, produce 43% of the world’s per capita gross domestic product (GDP), and take up 74% of the earth’s total land area. We used an information theoretic approach to determine which models were most supported by our data, utilizing an a priori set of plausible models that included a combination of 15 social-ecological variables, each social-ecological factor by itself, and selected social-ecological factors grouped into three broad classes. These variables were per capita GDP, export-import ratio, tourism, undernourishment, energy efficiency, agricultural intensity, rainfall, water stress, wilderness protection, total biodiversity, life expectancy, adult literacy, pesticide regulation, political stability, and female participation in government. Our results indicate that as total biodiversity and total land area increase, the percentage of endangered birds also increases. As the independent variables (agricultural intensity, rainfall, water stress, and total biodiversity) in the ecological class model increase, the percentage of endangered mammals in a country increases. The percentage of invasive birds and mammals in a country increases as per capita GDP increases. As life expectancy increases, the percentage of invasive and endangered birds and mammals increases. Although our analysis does not determine mechanisms, the patterns observed in this study provide insight into the dynamics of a complex, global, social-ecological system.

Ecologic and Geographic Distribution of Filovirus Disease

PubMed Central

Bauer, John T.; Mills, James N.

2004-01-01

We used ecologic niche modeling of outbreaks and sporadic cases of filovirus-associated hemorrhagic fever (HF) to provide a large-scale perspective on the geographic and ecologic distributions of Ebola and Marburg viruses. We predicted that filovirus would occur across the Afrotropics: Ebola HF in the humid rain forests of central and western Africa, and Marburg HF in the drier and more open areas of central and eastern Africa. Most of the predicted geographic extent of Ebola HF has been observed; Marburg HF has the potential to occur farther south and east. Ecologic conditions appropriate for Ebola HF are also present in Southeast Asia and the Philippines, where Ebola Reston is hypothesized to be distributed. This first large-scale ecologic analysis provides a framework for a more informed search for taxa that could constitute the natural reservoir for this virus family. PMID:15078595

Complex Synchronization Phenomena in Ecological Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stone, Lewi; Olinky, Ronen; Blasius, Bernd; Huppert, Amit; Cazelles, Bernard

2002-07-01

Ecological and biological systems provide us with many striking examples of synchronization phenomena. Here we discuss a number of intriguing cases and attempt to explain them taking advantage of a modelling framework. One main focus will concern synchronized ecological end epidemiological cycles which have Uniform Phase growth associated with their regular recurrence, and Chaotic Amplitudes - a feature we term UPCA. Examples come from different areas and include decadal cycles of small mammals, recurrent viral epidemics such as childhood infections (eg., measles), and seasonally driven phytoplankton blooms observed in lakes and the oceans. A more detailed theoretical analysis of seasonally synchronized chaotic population cycles is presented.

Integrative Models in Environmental Planning and Policy Making.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kyler, David Clinton

1984-01-01

Discusses conceptual models of thought that have recently emerged to confront the conventional approaches to analysis and solution to complex environmental problems. In addition to a critical attack on the tradition of specialization and reductionism, several models are summarized that originated from ecology, cybernetics, and system theory. (BC)

Linking hydrologic, physical and chemical habitat environments for the potential assessment of fish community rehabilitation in a developing city

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, C. S.; Yang, S. T.; Liu, C. M.; Dou, T. W.; Yang, Z. L.; Yang, Z. Y.; Liu, X. L.; Xiang, H.; Nie, S. Y.; Zhang, J. L.; Mitrovic, S. M.; Yu, Q.; Lim, R. P.

2015-04-01

Aquatic ecological rehabilitation is increasingly attracting considerable public and research attention. An effective method that requires less data and expertise would help in the assessment of rehabilitation potential and in the monitoring of rehabilitation activities as complicated theories and excessive data requirements on assemblage information make many current assessment models expensive and limit their wide use. This paper presents an assessment model for restoration potential which successfully links hydrologic, physical and chemical habitat factors to fish assemblage attributes drawn from monitoring datasets on hydrology, water quality and fish assemblages at a total of 144 sites, where 5084 fish were sampled and tested. In this model three newly developed sub-models, integrated habitat index (IHSI), integrated ecological niche breadth (INB) and integrated ecological niche overlap (INO), are established to study spatial heterogeneity of the restoration potential of fish assemblages based on gradient methods of habitat suitability index and ecological niche models. To reduce uncertainties in the model, as many fish species as possible, including important native fish, were selected as dominant species with monitoring occurring over several seasons to comprehensively select key habitat factors. Furthermore, a detrended correspondence analysis (DCA) was employed prior to a canonical correspondence analysis (CCA) of the data to avoid the "arc effect" in the selection of key habitat factors. Application of the model to data collected at Jinan City, China proved effective reveals that three lower potential regions that should be targeted in future aquatic ecosystem rehabilitation programs. They were well validated by the distribution of two habitat parameters: river width and transparency. River width positively influenced and transparency negatively influenced fish assemblages. The model can be applied for monitoring the effects of fish assemblage restoration. This has large ramifications for the restoration of aquatic ecosystems and spatial heterogeneity of fish assemblages all over the world.

Including Overweight or Obese Students in Physical Education: A Social Ecological Constraint Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Li, Weidong; Rukavina, Paul

2012-01-01

In this review, we propose a social ecological constraint model to study inclusion of overweight or obese students in physical education by integrating key concepts and assumptions from ecological constraint theory in motor development and social ecological models in health promotion and behavior. The social ecological constraint model proposes…

Ecological niche of three teuthophageous odontocetes in the northwestern Mediterranean Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Praca, E.; Gannier, A.

2007-10-01

In the northwestern Mediterranean Sea, sperm whales, pilot whales and Risso's dolphins prey on cephalopods exclusively or preferentially. In order to evaluate their competition, we modelled their habitat suitability with the Ecological Niche Factor Analysis (ENFA) and compared their ecological niche using a discriminant analysis. We used a long term (1995-2005) small boat data set, with visual and acoustic (sperm whale) detections. Risso's dolphin had the shallowest and the more spatially restricted principal habitat, mainly located on the upper part of the continental slope (640 m mean depth). With a wider principal habitat, at 1750 m depth in average, the sperm whale used a deeper part of the slope as well as close offshore waters. Finally, the pilot whale has the most oceanic habitat (2500 m mean depth) mainly located in the central Ligurian Sea and Provençal basin. Therefore, potential competition for food between these species may be reduced by the differentiation of their ecological niches.

Sampling design for an integrated socioeconomic and ecological survey by using satellite remote sensing and ordination

PubMed Central

Binford, Michael W.; Lee, Tae Jeong; Townsend, Robert M.

2004-01-01

Environmental variability is an important risk factor in rural agricultural communities. Testing models requires empirical sampling that generates data that are representative in both economic and ecological domains. Detrended correspondence analysis of satellite remote sensing data were used to design an effective low-cost sampling protocol for a field study to create an integrated socioeconomic and ecological database when no prior information on ecology of the survey area existed. We stratified the sample for the selection of tambons from various preselected provinces in Thailand based on factor analysis of spectral land-cover classes derived from satellite data. We conducted the survey for the sampled villages in the chosen tambons. The resulting data capture interesting variations in soil productivity and in the timing of good and bad years, which a purely random sample would likely have missed. Thus, this database will allow tests of hypotheses concerning the effect of credit on productivity, the sharing of idiosyncratic risks, and the economic influence of environmental variability. PMID:15254298

Latent Model Analysis of Substance Use and HIV Risk Behaviors among High-Risk Minority Adults

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wang, Min Qi; Matthew, Resa F.; Chiu, Yu-Wen; Yan, Fang; Bellamy, Nikki D.

2007-01-01

Objectives: This study evaluated substance use and HIV risk profile using a latent model analysis based on ecological theory, inclusive of a risk and protective factor framework, in sexually active minority adults (N=1,056) who participated in a federally funded substance abuse and HIV prevention health initiative from 2002 to 2006. Methods: Data…

Quantitative assessment of the relationships among ecological, morphological and aesthetic values in a river rehabilitation initiative.

PubMed

McCormick, Ashlee; Fisher, Karen; Brierley, Gary

2015-04-15

Promoting community support in rehabilitation efforts through incorporation of aesthetic considerations is an important component of environmental management. This research utilised a small-scale survey methodology to explore relationships among the ecological and morphological goals of scientists and the aesthetic goals of the public using the Twin Streams Catchment, Auckland, New Zealand, as a case study. Analyses using a linear model and a generalised linear mixed model showed statistically significant relationships between perceived naturalness of landscapes and their aesthetic ratings, and among ratings of perceived naturalness and ecological integrity and morphological condition. Expert measures of health and the aesthetic evaluations of the public were well aligned, indicating public preferences for landscapes of high ecological integrity with good morphological condition. Further analysis revealed participants used 'cues to care' to rate naturalness. This suggests that environmental education endeavours could further align values with these cues in efforts to enhance approaches to landscape sustainability. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Meta-analysis of high-latitude nitrogen-addition and warming studies implies ecological mechanisms overlooked by land models

DOE PAGES

Bouskill, N. J.; Riley, W. J.; Tang, J. Y.

2014-12-11

Accurate representation of ecosystem processes in land models is crucial for reducing predictive uncertainty in energy and greenhouse gas feedbacks with the climate. Here we describe an observational and modeling meta-analysis approach to benchmark land models, and apply the method to the land model CLM4.5 with two versions of belowground biogeochemistry. We focused our analysis on the aboveground and belowground responses to warming and nitrogen addition in high-latitude ecosystems, and identified absent or poorly parameterized mechanisms in CLM4.5. While the two model versions predicted similar soil carbon stock trajectories following both warming and nitrogen addition, other predicted variables (e.g., belowgroundmore » respiration) differed from observations in both magnitude and direction, indicating that CLM4.5 has inadequate underlying mechanisms for representing high-latitude ecosystems. On the basis of observational synthesis, we attribute the model–observation differences to missing representations of microbial dynamics, aboveground and belowground coupling, and nutrient cycling, and we use the observational meta-analysis to discuss potential approaches to improving the current models. However, we also urge caution concerning the selection of data sets and experiments for meta-analysis. For example, the concentrations of nitrogen applied in the synthesized field experiments (average = 72 kg ha -1 yr -1) are many times higher than projected soil nitrogen concentrations (from nitrogen deposition and release during mineralization), which precludes a rigorous evaluation of the model responses to likely nitrogen perturbations. Overall, we demonstrate that elucidating ecological mechanisms via meta-analysis can identify deficiencies in ecosystem models and empirical experiments.« less

Generalized linear and generalized additive models in studies of species distributions: Setting the scene

USGS Publications Warehouse

Guisan, Antoine; Edwards, T.C.; Hastie, T.

2002-01-01

An important statistical development of the last 30 years has been the advance in regression analysis provided by generalized linear models (GLMs) and generalized additive models (GAMs). Here we introduce a series of papers prepared within the framework of an international workshop entitled: Advances in GLMs/GAMs modeling: from species distribution to environmental management, held in Riederalp, Switzerland, 6-11 August 2001. We first discuss some general uses of statistical models in ecology, as well as provide a short review of several key examples of the use of GLMs and GAMs in ecological modeling efforts. We next present an overview of GLMs and GAMs, and discuss some of their related statistics used for predictor selection, model diagnostics, and evaluation. Included is a discussion of several new approaches applicable to GLMs and GAMs, such as ridge regression, an alternative to stepwise selection of predictors, and methods for the identification of interactions by a combined use of regression trees and several other approaches. We close with an overview of the papers and how we feel they advance our understanding of their application to ecological modeling. ?? 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

[Identification of coupling relationship between urbanization and ecological environment in Jilin from entropy change perspective].

PubMed

Sun, Ping-Jun; Xiu, Chun-Liang; Zhang, Tian-Jiao

2014-03-01

By using the entropy change equation of the second law of thermodynamics, entropy method and PSE model, this article made an analysis on coupling relationship between urbanization and ecological environment in Jilin Province from 2001 to 2011. In the study period, the urbanization development had been out of normal evolution track: The economic urbanization and space urbanization dominated the whole urbanization process, while population urbanization was neglected too seriously, with an apparent characteristic of extensive and inefficient input of resources (especially land resource). According to the levels of ecological environment on the basis of PSE model, not only the pressure index, sensitivity index and the elasticity index, but also the comprehensive index showed considerable growth with obvious stage characteristics: ascending-descending-ascending. The total entropy values of the urbanization were less than zero during the time, which meant an unstable rising curve. While the total trophy values of the ecological environment varied below and above zero, and 2003, 2006, 2010 and 2011 were the "turning points", reflecting the instability of the ecological environment. The coupling total entropy values between urbanization and ecological environment had the same characteristics with the ecological environment: the same "turning points" and shape of the curve, in which, the "turning points" corresponded to the type of antagonistic evolution pattern, while the rest of years responded to the type of coordination evolution pattern.

Alternative Futures Analysis Of Farmington Bay Wetlands In The Great Salt Lake Ecosystem

EPA Science Inventory

An Alternative Futures Analysis (AFA) was conducted to evaluate tradeoffs between landscape design scenarios and ecological services for Farmington Bay, Great Salt Lake (GSL), wetlands. Model scenarios included both plan trend and conservation "futures" projected to 2030. Scena...

AN ALTERNATIVE FUTURES ANALYSIS OF FARMINGTON BAY WETLANDS IN THE GREAT SALT LAKE

EPA Science Inventory

An Alternative Futures Analysis (AFA) was conducted to evaluate tradeoffs between landscape design scenarios and ecological services for Farmington Bay, Great Salt Lake (GSL), wetlands. Model scenarios included plan trend and conservation "futures" scenarios projected to 2030. ...

Ecological niche transferability using invasive species as a case study.

PubMed

Fernández, Miguel; Hamilton, Healy

2015-01-01

Species distribution modeling is widely applied to predict invasive species distributions and species range shifts under climate change. Accurate predictions depend upon meeting the assumption that ecological niches are conserved, i.e., spatially or temporally transferable. Here we present a multi-taxon comparative analysis of niche conservatism using biological invasion events well documented in natural history museum collections. Our goal is to assess spatial transferability of the climatic niche of a range of noxious terrestrial invasive species using two complementary approaches. First we compare species' native versus invasive ranges in environmental space using two distinct methods, Principal Components Analysis and Mahalanobis distance. Second we compare species' native versus invaded ranges in geographic space as estimated using the species distribution modeling technique Maxent and the comparative index Hellinger's I. We find that species exhibit a range of responses, from almost complete transferability, in which the invaded niches completely overlap with the native niches, to a complete dissociation between native and invaded ranges. Intermediate responses included expansion of dimension attributable to either temperature or precipitation derived variables, as well as niche expansion in multiple dimensions. We conclude that the ecological niche in the native range is generally a poor predictor of invaded range and, by analogy, the ecological niche may be a poor predictor of range shifts under climate change. We suggest that assessing dimensions of niche transferability prior to standard species distribution modeling may improve the understanding of species' dynamics in the invaded range.

IDENTIFICATION OF REGIME SHIFTS IN TIME SERIES USING NEIGHBORHOOD STATISTICS

EPA Science Inventory

The identification of alternative dynamic regimes in ecological systems requires several lines of evidence. Previous work on time series analysis of dynamic regimes includes mainly model-fitting methods. We introduce two methods that do not use models. These approaches use state-...

CELSS scenario analysis: Breakeven calculations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mason, R. M.

1980-01-01

A model of the relative mass requirements of food production components in a controlled ecological life support system (CELSS) based on regenerative concepts is described. Included are a discussion of model scope, structure, and example calculations. Computer programs for cultivar and breakeven calculations are also included.

Scale-up of ecological experiments: Density variation in the mobile bivalve Macomona liliana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schneider, Davod C.; Walters, R.; Thrush, S.; Dayton, P.

1997-01-01

At present the problem of scaling up from controlled experiments (necessarily at a small spatial scale) to questions of regional or global importance is perhaps the most pressing issue in ecology. Most of the proposed techniques recommend iterative cycling between theory and experiment. We present a graphical technique that facilitates this cycling by allowing the scope of experiments, surveys, and natural history observations to be compared to the scope of models and theory. We apply the scope analysis to the problem of understanding the population dynamics of a bivalve exposed to environmental stress at the scale of a harbour. Previous lab and field experiments were found not to be 1:1 scale models of harbour-wide processes. Scope analysis allowed small scale experiments to be linked to larger scale surveys and to a spatially explicit model of population dynamics.

The use of aquatic bioconcentration factors in ecological risk assessments: Confounding issues, laboratory v/s modeled results

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Brandt, C.; Blanton, M.L.; Dirkes, R.

1995-12-31

Bioconcentration in aquatic systems is generally taken to refer to contaminant uptake through non-ingestion pathways (i.e., dermal and respiration uptake). Ecological risk assessments performed on aquatic systems often rely on published data on bioconcentration factors to calibrate models of exposure. However, many published BCFs, especially those from in situ studies, are confounded by uptake from ingestion of prey. As part of exposure assessment and risk analysis of the Columbia River`s Hanford Reach, the authors tested a methodology to estimate radionuclide BCFs for several aquatic species in the Hanford Reach of the Columbia River. The iterative methodology solves for BCFs frommore » known body burdens and environmental media concentrations. This paper provides BCF methodology description comparisons of BCF from literature and modeled values and how they were used in the exposure assessment and risk analysis of the Columbia River`s Hanford Reach.« less

Ecologic Niche Modeling of Blastomyces dermatitidis in Wisconsin

PubMed Central

Reed, Kurt D.; Meece, Jennifer K.; Archer, John R.; Peterson, A. Townsend

2008-01-01

Background Blastomycosis is a potentially fatal mycosis that is acquired by inhaling infectious spores of Blastomyces dermatitidis present in the environment. The ecology of this pathogen is poorly understood, in part because it has been extremely difficult to identify the niche(s) it occupies based on culture isolation of the organism from environmental samples. Methodology/Principal Findings We investigated the ecology of blastomycosis by performing maximum entropy modeling of exposure sites from 156 cases of human and canine blastomycosis to provide a regional-scale perspective of the geographic and ecologic distribution of B. dermatitidis in Wisconsin. Based on analysis with climatic, topographic, surface reflectance and other environmental variables, we predicted that ecologic conditions favorable for maintaining the fungus in nature occur predominantly within northern counties and counties along the western shoreline of Lake Michigan. Areas of highest predicted occurrence were often in proximity to waterways, especially in northcentral Wisconsin, where incidence of infection is highest. Ecologic conditions suitable for B. dermatitidis are present in urban and rural environments, and may differ at the extremes of distribution of the species in the state. Conclusions/Significance Our results provide a framework for a more informed search for specific environmental factors modulating B. dermatitidis occurrence and transmission and will be useful for improving public health awareness of relative exposure risks. PMID:18446224

Classification tree and minimum-volume ellipsoid analyses of the distribution of ponderosa pine in the western USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Norris, Jodi R.; Jackson, Stephen T.; Betancourt, Julio L.

2006-01-01

Aim? Ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa Douglas ex Lawson & C. Lawson) is an economically and ecologically important conifer that has a wide geographic range in the western USA, but is mostly absent from the geographic centre of its distribution - the Great Basin and adjoining mountain ranges. Much of its modern range was achieved by migration of geographically distinct Sierra Nevada (P. ponderosa var. ponderosa) and Rocky Mountain (P. ponderosa var. scopulorum) varieties in the last 10,000 years. Previous research has confirmed genetic differences between the two varieties, and measurable genetic exchange occurs where their ranges now overlap in western Montana. A variety of approaches in bioclimatic modelling is required to explore the ecological differences between these varieties and their implications for historical biogeography and impending changes in western landscapes. Location? Western USA. Methods? We used a classification tree analysis and a minimum-volume ellipsoid as models to explain the broad patterns of distribution of ponderosa pine in modern environments using climatic and edaphic variables. Most biogeographical modelling assumes that the target group represents a single, ecologically uniform taxonomic population. Classification tree analysis does not require this assumption because it allows the creation of pathways that predict multiple positive and negative outcomes. Thus, classification tree analysis can be used to test the ecological uniformity of the species. In addition, a multidimensional ellipsoid was constructed to describe the niche of each variety of ponderosa pine, and distances from the niche were calculated and mapped on a 4-km grid for each ecological variable. Results? The resulting classification tree identified three dominant pathways predicting ponderosa pine presence. Two of these three pathways correspond roughly to the distribution of var. ponderosa, and the third pathway generally corresponds to the distribution of var. scopulorum. The classification tree and minimum-volume ellipsoid model show that both varieties have very similar temperature limitations, although var. ponderosa is more limited by the temperature extremes of the continental interior. The precipitation limitations of the two varieties are seasonally different, with var. ponderosa requiring significant winter moisture and var. scopulorum requiring significant summer moisture. Great Basin mountain ranges are too cold at higher elevations to support either variety of ponderosa pine, and at lower elevations are too dry in summer for var. scopulorum and too dry in winter for var. ponderosa. Main conclusions? The classification tree analysis indicates that var. ponderosa is ecologically as well as genetically distinct from var. scopulorum. Ecological differences may maintain genetic separation in spite of a limited zone of introgression between the two varieties in western Montana. Two hypotheses about past and future movements of ponderosa pine emerge from our analyses. The first hypothesis is that, during the last glacial period, colder and/or drier summers truncated most of the range of var. scopulorum in the central Rockies, but had less dramatic effects on the more maritime and winter-wet distribution of var. ponderosa. The second hypothesis is that, all other factors held constant, increasing summer temperatures in the future should produce changes in the distribution of var. scopulorum that are likely to involve range expansions in the central Rockies with the warming of mountain ranges currently too cold but sufficiently wet in summer for var. scopulorum. Finally, our results underscore the growing need to focus on genotypes in biogeographical modelling and ecological forecasting.

Comprehensive evaluation of ecological security in mining area based on PSR-ANP-GRAY.

PubMed

He, Gang; Yu, Baohua; Li, Shuzhou; Zhu, Yanna

2017-09-06

With the large exploitation of mineral resources, a series of problems have appeared in the ecological environment of the mining area. Therefore, evaluating the ecological security of mining area is of great significance to promote its healthy development. In this paper, the evaluation index system of ecological security in mining area was constructed from three dimensions of nature, society and economy, combined with Pressure-State-Response framework model. Then network analytic hierarchy process and GRAY relational analysis method were used to evaluate the ecological security of the region, and the weighted correlation degree of ecological security was calculated through the index data of a coal mine from 2012 to 2016 in China. The results show that the ecological security in the coal mine area is on the rise as a whole, though it alternatively rose and dropped from 2012 to 2016. Among them, the ecological security of the study mining area is at the general security level from 2012 to 2015, and at a relatively safe level in 2016. It shows that the ecological environment of the study mining area can basically meet the requirement of the survival and development of the enterprises.

From ecological test site to geographic information system: lessons for the 1980's

USGS Publications Warehouse

Alexander, Robert H.

1981-01-01

Geographic information systems were common elements in two kinds of interdisciplinary regional demonstration projects in the 1970's. Ecological test sits attempted to provide for more efficient remote-sensing data delivery for regional environmental management. Regional environmental systems analysis attempted to formally describe and model the interacting regional social and environmental processes, including the resource-use decision making process. Lessons for the 1980's are drawn from recent evaluations and assessments of these programs, focusing on cost, rates of system development and technology transfer, program coordination, integrative analysis capability, and the involvement of system users and decision makers.

Process optimization of solid rad waste management at the Shelter object transformation to the ecologically safety system

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Batiy, V.G.; Stojanov, A.I.; Schmieman, E.

2007-07-01

Methodological approach of optimization of schemes of solid radwaste management of the Object Shelter (Shelter) and ChNPP industrial site during transformation to the ecologically safe system was developed. On the basis of the conducted models researches the ALARA-analysis was carried out for the choice of optimum variant of schemes and technologies of solid radwaste management. The criteria of choice of optimum schemes, which are directed on optimization of doses and financial expenses, minimization of amount of the formed radwaste etc, were developed for realization of this ALARA-analysis. (authors)

Comparing meta-analysis and ecological-longitudinal analysis in time-series studies. A case study of the effects of air pollution on mortality in three Spanish cities

PubMed Central

Saez, M; Figueiras, A; Ballester, F; Perez-Hoyos, S; Ocana, R; Tobias, A

2001-01-01

STUDY OBJECTIVE—The objective of this paper is to introduce a different approach, called the ecological-longitudinal, to carrying out pooled analysis in time series ecological studies. Because it gives a larger number of data points and, hence, increases the statistical power of the analysis, this approach, unlike conventional ones, allows the complementation of aspects such as accommodation of random effect models, of lags, of interaction between pollutants and between pollutants and meteorological variables, that are hardly implemented in conventional approaches.
DESIGN—The approach is illustrated by providing quantitative estimates of the short-term effects of air pollution on mortality in three Spanish cities, Barcelona, Valencia and Vigo, for the period 1992-1994. Because the dependent variable was a count, a Poisson generalised linear model was first specified. Several modelling issues are worth mentioning. Firstly, because the relations between mortality and explanatory variables were non-linear, cubic splines were used for covariate control, leading to a generalised additive model, GAM. Secondly, the effects of the predictors on the response were allowed to occur with some lag. Thirdly, the residual autocorrelation, because of imperfect control, was controlled for by means of an autoregressive Poisson GAM. Finally, the longitudinal design demanded the consideration of the existence of individual heterogeneity, requiring the consideration of mixed models.
MAIN RESULTS—The estimates of the relative risks obtained from the individual analyses varied across cities, particularly those associated with sulphur dioxide. The highest relative risks corresponded to black smoke in Valencia. These estimates were higher than those obtained from the ecological-longitudinal analysis. Relative risks estimated from this latter analysis were practically identical across cities, 1.00638 (95% confidence intervals 1.0002, 1.0011) for a black smoke increase of 10 µg/m3 and 1.00415 (95% CI 1.0001, 1.0007) for a increase of 10 µg/m3 of sulphur dioxide. Because the statistical power is higher than in the individual analysis more interactions were statistically significant, especially those among air pollutants and meteorological variables.
CONCLUSIONS—Air pollutant levels were related to mortality in the three cities of the study, Barcelona, Valencia and Vigo. These results were consistent with similar studies in other cities, with other multicentric studies and coherent with both, previous individual, for each city, and multicentric studies for all three cities.


Keywords: air pollution; mortality; longitudinal studies PMID:11351001

[Geographic patterns and ecological factors correlates of snake species richness in China].

PubMed

Cai, Bo; Huang, Yong; Chen, Yue-Ying; Hu, Jun-Hua; Guo, Xian-Guang; Wang, Yue-Zhao

2012-08-01

Understanding large-scale geographic patterns of species richness as well its underlying mechanisms are among the most significant objectives of macroecology and biogeography. The ecological hypothesis is one of the most accepted explanations of this mechanism. Here, we studied the geographic patterns of snakes and investigated the relationships between species richness and ecological factors in China at a spatial resolution of 100 km×100 km. We obtained the eigenvector-based spatial filters by Principal Coordinates Neighbor Matrices, and then analyzed ecological factors by multiple regression analysis. The results indicated several things: (1) species richness of snakes showed multi-peak patterns along both the latitudinal and longitudinal gradient. The areas of highest richness of snake are tropics and subtropical areas of Oriental realm in China while the areas of lowest richness are Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, the grasslands and deserts in northern China, Yangtze-Huai Plain, Two-lake Plain, and the Poyang-lake Plain; (2) results of multiple regression analysis explained a total of 56.5% variance in snake richness. Among ecological factors used to explore the species richness patterns, we found the best factors were the normalized difference vegetation index, precipitation in the coldest quarter and temperature annual range ; (3) our results indicated that the model based on the significant variables that (P<0.05) uses a combination of precipitation of coldest quarter, normalized difference vegetation index and temperature annual range is the most parsimonious model for explaining the mechanism of snake richness in China. This finding demonstrates that different ecological factors work together to affect the geographic distribution of snakes in China. Studying the mechanisms that underlie these geographic patterns are complex, so we must carefully consider the choice of impact-factors and the influence of human activities.

Trait-based approaches in the analysis of stream fish communities

USGS Publications Warehouse

Frimpong, Emmanuel; Angermeier, Paul

2010-01-01

Species traits are used to study the functional organization of fish communities for a range of reasons, from simply reducing data dimensionality to providing mechanistic explanations for observed variation in communities. Ecological and life history traits have been used to understand the basic ecology of fishes and predict (1) species and community responses to habitat and climate alteration, and (2) species extinction, species invasion, and community homogenization. Many approaches in this arena have been developed during the past three decades, but they often have not been integrated with related ecological concepts or subdisciplines, which has led to confusion in terminology. We review 102 studies of species traits and then summarize patterns in traits being used and questions being addressed with trait-based approaches. Overall, studies of fish–habitat relationships that apply habitat templates and hierarchical filters dominate our sample; the most frequently used traits are related to feeding. We define and show the relationships among key terms such as fundamental and realized niches; functional traits, performance, and fitness; tactic, trait-state, syndromes, and strategies; and guilds and functional groups. We propose accelerating research to (1) quantify trait plasticity, (2) identify traits useful for testing ecological hypotheses, (3) model habitat and biotic interactions in communities while explicitly accounting for phylogenetic relationships, (4) explore how traits control community assembly, and (5) document the importance of traits in fish– community responses to anthropogenic change and in delivering ecosystem services. Further synthesis of these topics is still needed to develop concepts, models, and principles that can unify the disparate approaches taken in trait-based analysis of fish communities, link fish community ecology to general community ecology, and inform sustainable management of ecosystems.

Ecological Footprint and Ecosystem Services Models: A Comparative Analysis of Environmental Carrying Capacity Calculation Approach in Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Subekti, R. M.; Suroso, D. S. A.

2018-05-01

Calculation of environmental carrying capacity can be done by various approaches. The selection of an appropriate approach determines the success of determining and applying environmental carrying capacity. This study aimed to compare the ecological footprint approach and the ecosystem services approach for calculating environmental carrying capacity. It attempts to describe two relatively new models that require further explanation if they are used to calculate environmental carrying capacity. In their application, attention needs to be paid to their respective advantages and weaknesses. Conceptually, the ecological footprint model is more complete than the ecosystem services model, because it describes the supply and demand of resources, including supportive and assimilative capacity of the environment, and measurable output through a resource consumption threshold. However, this model also has weaknesses, such as not considering technological change and resources beneath the earth’s surface, as well as the requirement to provide trade data between regions for calculating at provincial and district level. The ecosystem services model also has advantages, such as being in line with strategic environmental assessment (SEA) of ecosystem services, using spatial analysis based on ecoregions, and a draft regulation on calculation guidelines formulated by the government. Meanwhile, weaknesses are that it only describes the supply of resources, that the assessment of the different types of ecosystem services by experts tends to be subjective, and that the output of the calculation lacks a resource consumption threshold.

A Conceptual Framework for Evaluating the Domains of Applicability of Ecological Models and its Implementation in the Ecological Production Function Library - International Society for Ecological Modelling Conference

EPA Science Inventory

The use of computational ecological models to inform environmental management and policy has proliferated in the past 25 years. These models have become essential tools as linkages and feedbacks between human actions and ecological responses can be complex, and as funds for sampl...

Data Assimilation at FLUXNET to Improve Models towards Ecological Forecasting (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luo, Y.

2009-12-01

Dramatically increased volumes of data from observational and experimental networks such as FLUXNET call for transformation of ecological research to increase its emphasis on quantitative forecasting. Ecological forecasting will also meet the societal need to develop better strategies for natural resource management in a world of ongoing global change. Traditionally, ecological forecasting has been based on process-based models, informed by data in largely ad hoc ways. Although most ecological models incorporate some representation of mechanistic processes, today’s ecological models are generally not adequate to quantify real-world dynamics and provide reliable forecasts with accompanying estimates of uncertainty. A key tool to improve ecological forecasting is data assimilation, which uses data to inform initial conditions and to help constrain a model during simulation to yield results that approximate reality as closely as possible. In an era with dramatically increased availability of data from observational and experimental networks, data assimilation is a key technique that helps convert the raw data into ecologically meaningful products so as to accelerate our understanding of ecological processes, test ecological theory, forecast changes in ecological services, and better serve the society. This talk will use examples to illustrate how data from FLUXNET have been assimilated with process-based models to improve estimates of model parameters and state variables; to quantify uncertainties in ecological forecasting arising from observations, models and their interactions; and to evaluate information contributions of data and model toward short- and long-term forecasting of ecosystem responses to global change.

Analysis of the ecological water diversion project in Wenzhou City

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Haibo; Fu, Lei; Lin, Tong

2018-02-01

As a developed city in China, Wenzhou City has been suffered from bad water quality for years. In order to improve the river network water quality, an ecological water diversion project was designed and executed by the regional government. In this study, an investigation and analysis of the regional ecological water diversion project is made for the purpose of examining the water quality improvements. A numerical model is also established, different water diversion flow rates and sewer interception levels are considered during the simulation. Simulation results reveal that higher flow rate and sewer interception level will greatly improve the river network water quality in Wenzhou City. The importance of the flow rate and interception level has been proved and future work will be focused on increasing the flow rate and upgrading the sewer interception level.

Reflections on Plant and Soil Nematode Ecology: Past, Present and Future

PubMed Central

Ferris, Howard; Griffiths, Bryan S.; Porazinska, Dorota L.; Powers, Thomas O.; Wang, Koon-Hui; Tenuta, Mario

2012-01-01

The purpose of this review is to highlight key developments in nematode ecology from its beginnings to where it stands today as a discipline within nematology. Emerging areas of research appear to be driven by crop production constraints, environmental health concerns, and advances in technology. In contrast to past ecological studies which mainly focused on management of plant-parasitic nematodes, current studies reflect differential sensitivity of nematode faunae. These differences, identified in both aquatic and terrestrial environments include response to stressors, environmental conditions, and management practices. Methodological advances will continue to influence the role nematodes have in addressing the nature of interactions between organisms, and of organisms with their environments. In particular, the C. elegans genetic model, nematode faunal analysis and nematode metagenetic analysis can be used by ecologists generally and not restricted to nematologists. PMID:23482864

Newer classification and regression tree techniques: Bagging and Random Forests for ecological prediction

Treesearch

Anantha M. Prasad; Louis R. Iverson; Andy Liaw; Andy Liaw

2006-01-01

We evaluated four statistical models - Regression Tree Analysis (RTA), Bagging Trees (BT), Random Forests (RF), and Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) - for predictive vegetation mapping under current and future climate scenarios according to the Canadian Climate Centre global circulation model.

[Environmental quality assessment of regional agro-ecosystem in Loess Plateau].

PubMed

Wang, Limei; Meng, Fanping; Zheng, Jiyong; Wang, Zhonglin

2004-03-01

Based on the detection and analysis of the contamination status of agro-ecosystem with apple-crops intercropping as the dominant cropping model in Loess Plateau, the individual factor and comprehensive environmental quality were assessed by multilevel fuzzy synthetic evaluation model, analytical hierarchy process(AHP), and improved standard weight deciding method. The results showed that the quality of soil, water and agricultural products was grade I, the social economical environmental quality was grade II, the ecological environmental quality was grade III, and the comprehensive environmental quality was grade I. The regional agro-ecosystem dominated by apple-crops intercropping was not the best model for the ecological benefits, but had the better social economical benefits.

Grass carp in the Great Lakes region: establishment potential, expert perceptions, and re-evaluation of experimental evidence of ecological impact

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wittmann, Marion E.; Jerde, Christopher L.; Howeth, Jennifer G.; Maher, Sean P.; Deines, Andrew M.; Jenkins, Jill A.; Whitledge, Gregory W.; Burbank, Sarah B.; Chadderton, William L.; Mahon, Andrew R.; Tyson, Jeffrey T.; Gantz, Crysta A.; Keller, Reuben P.; Drake, John M.; Lodge, David M.

2014-01-01

Intentional introductions of nonindigenous fishes are increasing globally. While benefits of these introductions are easily quantified, assessments to understand the negative impacts to ecosystems are often difficult, incomplete, or absent. Grass carp (Ctenopharyngodon idella) was originally introduced to the United States as a biocontrol agent, and recent observations of wild, diploid individuals in the Great Lakes basin have spurred interest in re-evaluating its ecological risk. Here, we evaluate the ecological impact of grass carp using expert opinion and a suite of the most up-to-date analytical tools and data (ploidy assessment, eDNA surveillance, species distribution models (SDMs), and meta-analysis). The perceived ecological impact of grass carp by fisheries experts was variable, ranging from unknown to very high. Wild-caught triploid and diploid individuals occurred in multiple Great Lakes waterways, and eDNA surveillance suggests that grass carp are abundant in a major tributary of Lake Michigan. SDMs predicted suitable grass carp climate occurs in all Great Lakes. Meta-analysis showed that grass carp introductions impact both water quality and biota. Novel findings based on updated ecological impact assessment tools indicate that iterative risk assessment of introduced fishes may be warranted.

Geographic Distribution and Ecology of Potential Malaria Vectors in the Republic of Korea

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-05-01

species . Figure 4 shows a minimal spanning tree of the non- metric multidimensional scaling analysis of the means of the Þrst 15 principal components...to develop ecological niche models (ENMs) of the potential geographic distribution for eight anopheline species known to occur there. The areas...predicted suitable for the Hyrcanus Group species were the most extensive for Anopheles sinensis Wiedemann, An. kleini Rueda, An. belenrae Rueda, and An

Evaluating the use of stable isotope analysis to infer the feeding ecology of a growing US gray seal (Halichoerus grypus) population.

PubMed

Lerner, Jacob E; Ono, Kathryn; Hernandez, Keith M; Runstadler, Jonathan A; Puryear, Wendy B; Polito, Michael J

2018-01-01

Gray seals (Halichoerus grypus) have been rapidly recolonizing the Northeast US coast, eliciting concern from the fishing industry. However, the ecological effect of this recovery is still unknown and as such, research is needed to better understand how the diet composition of gray seals in US waters will contribute to the ecological impact. While previous research on seal diets has focused on the analysis of hard prey remains, stable isotope analysis presents an alternative method that can be used to describe marine mammal diets when direct observation is impossible. To address this issue, we used stable isotope analysis of gray seal pup vibrissae and lanugo from Monomoy Island, Cape Cod, MA during the 2015/2016 winter breeding season to estimate adult female diet composition during pregnancy. Stable isotope mixing models (SIMM) suggested adult female gray seals were consuming greater amounts of cephalopod prey and less sand lance than previously indicated from analysis of hard prey remains. However, using SIMMs to estimate the diet composition of gray seals remains difficult due to the large number of isotopically similar prey species and uncertainty in tissue-specific, stable isotope trophic enrichment factors. Even so, by combining prey sources into ecologically informative groups and integrating prior information into SIMMs it is possible to obtain additional insights into the diet of this generalist predator.

Determination of the ecological connectivity between landscape patches obtained using the knowledge engineer (expert) classification technique

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Selim, Serdar; Sonmez, Namik Kemal; Onur, Isin; Coslu, Mesut

2017-10-01

Connection of similar landscape patches with ecological corridors supports habitat quality of these patches, increases urban ecological quality, and constitutes an important living and expansion area for wild life. Furthermore, habitat connectivity provided by urban green areas is supporting biodiversity in urban areas. In this study, possible ecological connections between landscape patches, which were achieved by using Expert classification technique and modeled with probabilistic connection index. Firstly, the reflection responses of plants to various bands are used as data in hypotheses. One of the important features of this method is being able to use more than one image at the same time in the formation of the hypothesis. For this reason, before starting the application of the Expert classification, the base images are prepared. In addition to the main image, the hypothesis conditions were also created for each class with the NDVI image which is commonly used in the vegetation researches. Besides, the results of the previously conducted supervised classification were taken into account. We applied this classification method by using the raster imagery with user-defined variables. Hereupon, to provide ecological connections of the tree cover which was achieved from the classification, we used Probabilistic Connection (PC) index. The probabilistic connection model which is used for landscape planning and conservation studies via detecting and prioritization critical areas for ecological connection characterizes the possibility of direct connection between habitats. As a result we obtained over % 90 total accuracy in accuracy assessment analysis. We provided ecological connections with PC index and we created inter-connected green spaces system. Thus, we offered and implicated green infrastructure system model takes place in the agenda of recent years.

A primer on the study of transitory dynamics in ecological series using the scale-dependent correlation analysis.

PubMed

Rodríguez-Arias, Miquel Angel; Rodó, Xavier

2004-03-01

Here we describe a practical, step-by-step primer to scale-dependent correlation (SDC) analysis. The analysis of transitory processes is an important but often neglected topic in ecological studies because only a few statistical techniques appear to detect temporary features accurately enough. We introduce here the SDC analysis, a statistical and graphical method to study transitory processes at any temporal or spatial scale. SDC analysis, thanks to the combination of conventional procedures and simple well-known statistical techniques, becomes an improved time-domain analogue of wavelet analysis. We use several simple synthetic series to describe the method, a more complex example, full of transitory features, to compare SDC and wavelet analysis, and finally we analyze some selected ecological series to illustrate the methodology. The SDC analysis of time series of copepod abundances in the North Sea indicates that ENSO primarily is the main climatic driver of short-term changes in population dynamics. SDC also uncovers some long-term, unexpected features in the population. Similarly, the SDC analysis of Nicholson's blowflies data locates where the proposed models fail and provides new insights about the mechanism that drives the apparent vanishing of the population cycle during the second half of the series.

Microbial ecology-based methods to characterize the bacterial communities of non-model insects.

PubMed

Prosdocimi, Erica M; Mapelli, Francesca; Gonella, Elena; Borin, Sara; Crotti, Elena

2015-12-01

Among the animals of the Kingdom Animalia, insects are unparalleled for their widespread diffusion, diversity and number of occupied ecological niches. In recent years they have raised researcher interest not only because of their importance as human and agricultural pests, disease vectors and as useful breeding species (e.g. honeybee and silkworm), but also because of their suitability as animal models. It is now fully recognized that microorganisms form symbiotic relationships with insects, influencing their survival, fitness, development, mating habits and the immune system and other aspects of the biology and ecology of the insect host. Thus, any research aimed at deepening the knowledge of any given insect species (perhaps species of applied interest or species emerging as novel pests or vectors) must consider the characterization of the associated microbiome. The present review critically examines the microbiology and molecular ecology techniques that can be applied to the taxonomical and functional analysis of the microbiome of non-model insects. Our goal is to provide an overview of current approaches and methods addressing the ecology and functions of microorganisms and microbiomes associated with insects. Our focus is on operational details, aiming to provide a concise guide to currently available advanced techniques, in an effort to extend insect microbiome research beyond simple descriptions of microbial communities. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

One-stage individual participant data meta-analysis models: estimation of treatment-covariate interactions must avoid ecological bias by separating out within-trial and across-trial information.

PubMed

Hua, Hairui; Burke, Danielle L; Crowther, Michael J; Ensor, Joie; Tudur Smith, Catrin; Riley, Richard D

2017-02-28

Stratified medicine utilizes individual-level covariates that are associated with a differential treatment effect, also known as treatment-covariate interactions. When multiple trials are available, meta-analysis is used to help detect true treatment-covariate interactions by combining their data. Meta-regression of trial-level information is prone to low power and ecological bias, and therefore, individual participant data (IPD) meta-analyses are preferable to examine interactions utilizing individual-level information. However, one-stage IPD models are often wrongly specified, such that interactions are based on amalgamating within- and across-trial information. We compare, through simulations and an applied example, fixed-effect and random-effects models for a one-stage IPD meta-analysis of time-to-event data where the goal is to estimate a treatment-covariate interaction. We show that it is crucial to centre patient-level covariates by their mean value in each trial, in order to separate out within-trial and across-trial information. Otherwise, bias and coverage of interaction estimates may be adversely affected, leading to potentially erroneous conclusions driven by ecological bias. We revisit an IPD meta-analysis of five epilepsy trials and examine age as a treatment effect modifier. The interaction is -0.011 (95% CI: -0.019 to -0.003; p = 0.004), and thus highly significant, when amalgamating within-trial and across-trial information. However, when separating within-trial from across-trial information, the interaction is -0.007 (95% CI: -0.019 to 0.005; p = 0.22), and thus its magnitude and statistical significance are greatly reduced. We recommend that meta-analysts should only use within-trial information to examine individual predictors of treatment effect and that one-stage IPD models should separate within-trial from across-trial information to avoid ecological bias. © 2016 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. © 2016 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Bioregional Assessments: Determining the Impacts of Coal Resource Development on Water Resources in Australia through Groundwater, Surface Water and Ecological Modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peeters, L. J.; Post, D. A.; Crosbie, R.; Holland, K.

2017-12-01

While extraction of methane from shale gas deposits has been the principal source of the recent expansion of the industry in the United States, in Australia extraction of methane from coal bed methane deposits (termed `coal seam gas' in Australia) has been the focus to date. The two sources of methane share many of the same characteristics including the potential requirement for hydraulic fracturing. However, as coal seam gas deposits generally occur at shallower depths than shale gas, the potential impacts of extraction on surface and groundwater resources may be of even greater concern. The Australian Federal Government commissioned a multi-disciplinary programme of bioregional assessments to improve understanding of the potential impacts of coal seam gas and large coal mining activities on water resources and water-dependent assets across six bioregions Australia. A bioregional assessment is a transparent scientific analysis of the ecology, hydrology, geology and hydrogeology of a bioregion with explicit assessment of the potential direct, indirect and cumulative impacts of coal seam gas and large coal mining development on water resources. The first step in the analysis is to establish the most likely scenario for coal development in each region and establish a causal pathway linking coal development to impacts to the social, economic and ecological functioning of water resources. This forms the basis for a sequence of probabilistic geological, hydrogeological, hydrological and ecological models to quantify the probability of potential impacts. This suite of models is developed independent of the proponents and regulators of coal resource developments and so can provide unbiased information to all stakeholders. To demonstrate transparency of the modelling, all inputs, outputs and executables will be available from http://www.bioregionalassessments.gov.au. The analysis delineated a zone of potential hydrological change for each region, outside of which impacts from coal development are very unlikely. Within each zone, the analysis provides a regional estimate of the likely impacts and identifies the major knowledge and data gaps. This information provides a framework for further local study.

Air pollution and case fatality of SARS in the People's Republic of China: an ecologic study

PubMed Central

Cui, Yan; Zhang, Zuo-Feng; Froines, John; Zhao, Jinkou; Wang, Hua; Yu, Shun-Zhang; Detels, Roger

2003-01-01

Background Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) has claimed 349 lives with 5,327 probable cases reported in mainland China since November 2002. SARS case fatality has varied across geographical areas, which might be partially explained by air pollution level. Methods Publicly accessible data on SARS morbidity and mortality were utilized in the data analysis. Air pollution was evaluated by air pollution index (API) derived from the concentrations of particulate matter, sulfur dioxide, nitrogen dioxide, carbon monoxide and ground-level ozone. Ecologic analysis was conducted to explore the association and correlation between air pollution and SARS case fatality via model fitting. Partially ecologic studies were performed to assess the effects of long-term and short-term exposures on the risk of dying from SARS. Results Ecologic analysis conducted among 5 regions with 100 or more SARS cases showed that case fatality rate increased with the increment of API (case fatality = - 0.063 + 0.001 * API). Partially ecologic study based on short-term exposure demonstrated that SARS patients from regions with moderate APIs had an 84% increased risk of dying from SARS compared to those from regions with low APIs (RR = 1.84, 95% CI: 1.41–2.40). Similarly, SARS patients from regions with high APIs were twice as likely to die from SARS compared to those from regions with low APIs. (RR = 2.18, 95% CI: 1.31–3.65). Partially ecologic analysis based on long-term exposure to ambient air pollution showed the similar association. Conclusion Our studies demonstrated a positive association between air pollution and SARS case fatality in Chinese population by utilizing publicly accessible data on SARS statistics and air pollution indices. Although ecologic fallacy and uncontrolled confounding effect might have biased the results, the possibility of a detrimental effect of air pollution on the prognosis of SARS patients deserves further investigation. PMID:14629774

The Evolutionary Role of Interorganizational Communication: Modeling Social Capital in Disaster Contexts

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Doerfel, Marya L.; Lai, Chih-Hui; Chewning, Lisa V.

2010-01-01

Employing a community ecology perspective, this study examines how interorganizational (IO) communication and social capital (SC) facilitated organizational recovery after Hurricane Katrina. In-depth interviews with 56 New Orleans organizations enabled longitudinal analysis and a grounded theory model that illustrates how communication…

JSEM: A Framework for Identifying and Evaluating Indicators.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hyman, Jeffrey B.; Leibowitz, Scott G.

2001-01-01

Presents an approach to identifying and evaluating combinations of indicators when the mathematical relationships between the indicators and an endpoint may not be quantified, a limitation common to many ecological assessments. Uses the framework of Structural Equation Modeling (SEM), which combines path analysis with measurement model, to…

Latino Adolescents' Academic Motivation: The Role of Siblings

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Alfaro, Edna C.; Umana-Taylor, Adriana J.

2010-01-01

Guided by an ecological perspective, two competing models were tested to examine how sibling relationship quality directly predicted or interacted with academic support from siblings to predict Latino adolescents' academic motivation (N = 258). Gender differences were examined utilizing multiple group analysis in structural equation modeling.…

Rejoinder: Sifting through model space

USGS Publications Warehouse

Heisey, Dennis M.; Osnas, Erik E.; Cross, Paul C.; Joly, Damien O.; Langenberg, Julia A.; Miller, Michael W.

2010-01-01

Observational data sets generated by complex processes are common in ecology. Traditionally these have been very challenging to analyze because of the limitations of available statistical tools. This seems to be changing, and these are exciting times to be involved with ecological statistics, not just because of the neo-Bayesian revival but also because of the proliferation of computationally intensive methods in general. It is now possible to fit much richer models to observational data than in the relatively recent past, which in turn has stimulated much interest in how to evaluate and compare such models. In such an immature, vibrant, and rapidly growing field, not everyone is going to agree on the best way to do things. This is reflected in the contrast of opinions offered by the discussants. Each offers a thoughtful and thought-provoking critique of our work that reflects the current thinking in a non-negligible segment of the ecological data analysis community. We want to thank them for their insights.

Additive hazards regression and partial likelihood estimation for ecological monitoring data across space.

PubMed

Lin, Feng-Chang; Zhu, Jun

2012-01-01

We develop continuous-time models for the analysis of environmental or ecological monitoring data such that subjects are observed at multiple monitoring time points across space. Of particular interest are additive hazards regression models where the baseline hazard function can take on flexible forms. We consider time-varying covariates and take into account spatial dependence via autoregression in space and time. We develop statistical inference for the regression coefficients via partial likelihood. Asymptotic properties, including consistency and asymptotic normality, are established for parameter estimates under suitable regularity conditions. Feasible algorithms utilizing existing statistical software packages are developed for computation. We also consider a simpler additive hazards model with homogeneous baseline hazard and develop hypothesis testing for homogeneity. A simulation study demonstrates that the statistical inference using partial likelihood has sound finite-sample properties and offers a viable alternative to maximum likelihood estimation. For illustration, we analyze data from an ecological study that monitors bark beetle colonization of red pines in a plantation of Wisconsin.

A hybrid land-water-environment model for identification of ecological effect and risk under uncertain meteorological precipitation in an agroforestry ecosystem.

PubMed

Zeng, Xueting; Li, Tienan; Chen, Cong; Si, Zhenjiang; Huang, Guohe; Guo, Ping; Zhuang, Xiaowen

2018-08-15

In this study, a hybrid land-water-environment (LWE) model is developed for identifying ecological effect and risk under uncertain precipitation in an agroforestry ecosystem. A simulation-based fuzzy-stochastic programming with risk analysis (SFSR) method is used into LWE model to reflect the meteorological impacts; meanwhile, it also can quantify artificial fuzziness (e.g., risk attitude of policymaker) and natural vagueness (e.g., ecological function) in decision-making. The developed LWE model with SFSR method is applied to a practical agroforestry ecosystem in China. Results of optimized planting scale, irrigative water schedule, pollution mitigation scheme, and system benefit under changed rainfall, precise risk-adoption and vague ecological function are obtained; meanwhile their corresponding ecological effects and risks are analyzed. It found that current LWE plans could generate massive water deficits (e.g., 23.22×10 6 m 3 in crop irrigation and 26.32×10 6 m 3 in forest protection at highest) due to over-cultivation and excessive pollution discharges (e.g., the highest excessive TP and TN discharges would reach 460.64 and 15.30×10 3 ton) due to irrational fertilization, which would increase regional ecological risks. In addition, fifteen scenarios associated with withdrawing cultivation and recovering forest based on regional environment heterogeneity (such as soil types) have been discussed to adjust current agriculture-environment policies. It found that, the excessive pollution discharges (TN and TP) could be reduced 12.95% and 18.32% at highest through ecological expansions, which would generate higher system benefits than that without withdrawing farmland and recovering forest. All above can facilitate local policymakers to modulate a comprehensive LWE with more sustainable and robust manners, achieving regional harmony between socio-economy and eco-environment. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Genetic and ecological insights into glacial refugia of walnut (Juglans regia L.)

PubMed Central

Aradhya, Mallikarjuna; Ibrahimov, Zakir; Toktoraliev, Biimyrza; Maghradze, David; Musayev, Mirza; Bobokashvili, Zviadi; Preece, John E.

2017-01-01

The distribution and survival of trees during the last glacial maximum (LGM) has been of interest to paleoecologists, biogeographers, and geneticists. Ecological niche models that associate species occurrence and abundance with climatic variables are widely used to gain ecological and evolutionary insights and to predict species distributions over space and time. The present study deals with the glacial history of walnut to address questions related to past distributions through genetic analysis and ecological modeling of the present, LGM and Last Interglacial (LIG) periods. A maximum entropy method was used to project the current walnut distribution model on to the LGM (21–18 kyr BP) and LIG (130–116 kyr BP) climatic conditions. Model tuning identified the walnut data set filtered at 10 km spatial resolution as the best for modeling the current distribution and to hindcast past (LGM and LIG) distributions of walnut. The current distribution model predicted southern Caucasus, parts of West and Central Asia extending into South Asia encompassing northern Afghanistan, Pakistan, northwestern Himalayan region, and southwestern Tibet, as the favorable climatic niche matching the modern distribution of walnut. The hindcast of distributions suggested the occurrence of walnut during LGM was somewhat limited to southern latitudes from southern Caucasus, Central and South Asian regions extending into southwestern Tibet, northeastern India, Himalayan region of Sikkim and Bhutan, and southeastern China. Both CCSM and MIROC projections overlapped, except that MIROC projected a significant presence of walnut in the Balkan Peninsula during the LGM. In contrast, genetic analysis of the current walnut distribution suggested a much narrower area in northern Pakistan and the surrounding areas of Afghanistan, northwestern India, and southern Tajikistan as a plausible hotspot of diversity where walnut may have survived glaciations. Overall, the findings suggest that walnut perhaps survived the last glaciations in several refugia across a wide geographic area between 30° and 45° North latitude. However, humans probably played a significant role in the recent history and modern distribution of walnut. PMID:29023476

Genetic and ecological insights into glacial refugia of walnut (Juglans regia L.).

PubMed

Aradhya, Mallikarjuna; Velasco, Dianne; Ibrahimov, Zakir; Toktoraliev, Biimyrza; Maghradze, David; Musayev, Mirza; Bobokashvili, Zviadi; Preece, John E

2017-01-01

The distribution and survival of trees during the last glacial maximum (LGM) has been of interest to paleoecologists, biogeographers, and geneticists. Ecological niche models that associate species occurrence and abundance with climatic variables are widely used to gain ecological and evolutionary insights and to predict species distributions over space and time. The present study deals with the glacial history of walnut to address questions related to past distributions through genetic analysis and ecological modeling of the present, LGM and Last Interglacial (LIG) periods. A maximum entropy method was used to project the current walnut distribution model on to the LGM (21-18 kyr BP) and LIG (130-116 kyr BP) climatic conditions. Model tuning identified the walnut data set filtered at 10 km spatial resolution as the best for modeling the current distribution and to hindcast past (LGM and LIG) distributions of walnut. The current distribution model predicted southern Caucasus, parts of West and Central Asia extending into South Asia encompassing northern Afghanistan, Pakistan, northwestern Himalayan region, and southwestern Tibet, as the favorable climatic niche matching the modern distribution of walnut. The hindcast of distributions suggested the occurrence of walnut during LGM was somewhat limited to southern latitudes from southern Caucasus, Central and South Asian regions extending into southwestern Tibet, northeastern India, Himalayan region of Sikkim and Bhutan, and southeastern China. Both CCSM and MIROC projections overlapped, except that MIROC projected a significant presence of walnut in the Balkan Peninsula during the LGM. In contrast, genetic analysis of the current walnut distribution suggested a much narrower area in northern Pakistan and the surrounding areas of Afghanistan, northwestern India, and southern Tajikistan as a plausible hotspot of diversity where walnut may have survived glaciations. Overall, the findings suggest that walnut perhaps survived the last glaciations in several refugia across a wide geographic area between 30° and 45° North latitude. However, humans probably played a significant role in the recent history and modern distribution of walnut.

Eco-Advertising: Taking a Closer Look

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ritz, William C.

1975-01-01

Offers an approach to the analysis of ecology oriented advertising based on the Essentia Project of the American Geological Institute (ESSENCE) model. Suggests several classroom activities to be done with this topic. (CP)

A simple, mass balance model of carbon flow in a controlled ecological life support system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Garland, Jay L.

1989-01-01

Internal cycling of chemical elements is a fundamental aspect of a Controlled Ecological Life Support System (CELSS). Mathematical models are useful tools for evaluating fluxes and reservoirs of elements associated with potential CELSS configurations. A simple mass balance model of carbon flow in CELSS was developed based on data from the CELSS Breadboard project at Kennedy Space Center. All carbon reservoirs and fluxes were calculated based on steady state conditions and modelled using linear, donor-controlled transfer coefficients. The linear expression of photosynthetic flux was replaced with Michaelis-Menten kinetics based on dynamical analysis of the model which found that the latter produced more adequate model output. Sensitivity analysis of the model indicated that accurate determination of the maximum rate of gross primary production is critical to the development of an accurate model of carbon flow. Atmospheric carbon dioxide was particularly sensitive to changes in photosynthetic rate. The small reservoir of CO2 relative to large CO2 fluxes increases the potential for volatility in CO2 concentration. Feedback control mechanisms regulating CO2 concentration will probably be necessary in a CELSS to reduce this system instability.

Quantifying the influences of various ecological factors on land surface temperature of urban forests.

PubMed

Ren, Yin; Deng, Lu-Ying; Zuo, Shu-Di; Song, Xiao-Dong; Liao, Yi-Lan; Xu, Cheng-Dong; Chen, Qi; Hua, Li-Zhong; Li, Zheng-Wei

2016-09-01

Identifying factors that influence the land surface temperature (LST) of urban forests can help improve simulations and predictions of spatial patterns of urban cool islands. This requires a quantitative analytical method that combines spatial statistical analysis with multi-source observational data. The purpose of this study was to reveal how human activities and ecological factors jointly influence LST in clustering regions (hot or cool spots) of urban forests. Using Xiamen City, China from 1996 to 2006 as a case study, we explored the interactions between human activities and ecological factors, as well as their influences on urban forest LST. Population density was selected as a proxy for human activity. We integrated multi-source data (forest inventory, digital elevation models (DEM), population, and remote sensing imagery) to develop a database on a unified urban scale. The driving mechanism of urban forest LST was revealed through a combination of multi-source spatial data and spatial statistical analysis of clustering regions. The results showed that the main factors contributing to urban forest LST were dominant tree species and elevation. The interactions between human activity and specific ecological factors linearly or nonlinearly increased LST in urban forests. Strong interactions between elevation and dominant species were generally observed and were prevalent in either hot or cold spots areas in different years. In conclusion, quantitative studies based on spatial statistics and GeogDetector models should be conducted in urban areas to reveal interactions between human activities, ecological factors, and LST. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Purpose, processes, partnerships, and products: four Ps to advance participatory socio-environmental modeling.

PubMed

Gray, Steven; Voinov, Alexey; Paolisso, Michael; Jordan, Rebecca; BenDor, Todd; Bommel, Pierre; Glynn, Pierre; Hedelin, Beatrice; Hubacek, Klaus; Introne, Josh; Kolagani, Nagesh; Laursen, Bethany; Prell, Christina; Schmitt Olabisi, Laura; Singer, Alison; Sterling, Eleanor; Zellner, Moira

2018-01-01

Including stakeholders in environmental model building and analysis is an increasingly popular approach to understanding ecological change. This is because stakeholders often hold valuable knowledge about socio-environmental dynamics and collaborative forms of modeling produce important boundary objects used to collectively reason about environmental problems. Although the number of participatory modeling (PM) case studies and the number of researchers adopting these approaches has grown in recent years, the lack of standardized reporting and limited reproducibility have prevented PM's establishment and advancement as a cohesive field of study. We suggest a four-dimensional framework (4P) that includes reporting on dimensions of (1) the Purpose for selecting a PM approach (the why); (2) the Process by which the public was involved in model building or evaluation (the how); (3) the Partnerships formed (the who); and (4) the Products that resulted from these efforts (the what). We highlight four case studies that use common PM software-based approaches (fuzzy cognitive mapping, agent-based modeling, system dynamics, and participatory geospatial modeling) to understand human-environment interactions and the consequences of ecological changes, including bushmeat hunting in Tanzania and Cameroon, agricultural production and deforestation in Zambia, and groundwater management in India. We demonstrate how standardizing communication about PM case studies can lead to innovation and new insights about model-based reasoning in support of ecological policy development. We suggest that our 4P framework and reporting approach provides a way for new hypotheses to be identified and tested in the growing field of PM. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

Exploring Pattern of Socialisation Conditions and Human Development by Nonlinear Multivariate Analysis.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Grundmann, Matthias

Following the assumptions of ecological socialization research, adequate analysis of socialization conditions must take into account the multilevel and multivariate structure of social factors that impact on human development. This statement implies that complex models of family configurations or of socialization factors are needed to explain the…

Grass Grows, the Cow Eats: A Simple Grazing Systems Model with Emergent Properties

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ungar, Eugene David; Seligman, Noam G.; Noy-Meir, Imanuel

2004-01-01

We describe a simple, yet intellectually challenging model of grazing systems that introduces basic concepts in ecology and systems analysis. The practical is suitable for high-school and university curricula with a quantitative orientation, and requires only basic skills in mathematics and spreadsheet use. The model is based on Noy-Meir's (1975)…

Occupancy models for data with false positive and false negative errors and heterogeneity across sites and surveys

Treesearch

Paige F.B. Ferguson; Michael J. Conroy; Jeffrey Hepinstall-Cymerman; Nigel Yoccoz

2015-01-01

False positive detections, such as species misidentifications, occur in ecological data, although many models do not account for them. Consequently, these models are expected to generate biased inference.The main challenge in an analysis of data with false positives is to distinguish false positive and false negative...

State-and-transition models: Conceptual versus simulation perspectives, usefulness and breadth of use, and land management applications

USGS Publications Warehouse

Provencher, Louis; Frid, Leonardo; Czembor, Christina; Morisette, Jeffrey T.

2016-01-01

State-and-Transition Simulation Modeling (STSM) is a quantitative analysis method that can consolidate a wide array of resource management issues under a “what-if” scenario exercise. STSM can be seen as an ensemble of models, such as climate models, ecological models, and economic models that incorporate human dimensions and management options. This chapter presents STSM as a tool to help synthesize information on social–ecological systems and to investigate some of the management issues associated with exotic annual Bromus species, which have been described elsewhere in this book. Definitions, terminology, and perspectives on conceptual and computer-simulated stochastic state-and-transition models are given first, followed by a brief review of past STSM studies relevant to the management of Bromus species. A detailed case study illustrates the usefulness of STSM for land management. As a whole, this chapter is intended to demonstrate how STSM can help both managers and scientists: (a) determine efficient resource allocation for monitoring nonnative grasses; (b) evaluate sources of uncertainty in model simulation results involving expert opinion, and their consequences for management decisions; and (c) provide insight into the consequences of predicted local climate change effects on ecological systems invaded by exotic annual Bromus species.

[Assessment on the ecological suitability in Zhuhai City, Guangdong, China, based on minimum cumulative resistance model].

PubMed

Li, Jian-fei; Li, Lin; Guo, Luo; Du, Shi-hong

2016-01-01

Urban landscape has the characteristics of spatial heterogeneity. Because the expansion process of urban constructive or ecological land has different resistance values, the land unit stimulates and promotes the expansion of ecological land with different intensity. To compare the effect of promoting and hindering functions in the same land unit, we firstly compared the minimum cumulative resistance value of promoting and hindering functions, and then looked for the balance of two landscape processes under the same standard. According to the ecology principle of minimum limit factor, taking the minimum cumulative resistance analysis method under two expansion processes as the evaluation method of urban land ecological suitability, this research took Zhuhai City as the study area to estimate urban ecological suitability by relative evaluation method with remote sensing image, field survey, and statistics data. With the support of ArcGIS, five types of indicators on landscape types, ecological value, soil erosion sensitivity, sensitivity of geological disasters, and ecological function were selected as input parameters in the minimum cumulative resistance model to compute urban ecological suitability. The results showed that the ecological suitability of the whole Zhuhai City was divided into five levels: constructive expansion prohibited zone (10.1%), constructive expansion restricted zone (32.9%), key construction zone (36.3%), priority development zone (2.3%), and basic cropland (18.4%). Ecological suitability of the central area of Zhuhai City was divided into four levels: constructive expansion prohibited zone (11.6%), constructive expansion restricted zone (25.6%), key construction zone (52.4%), priority development zone (10.4%). Finally, we put forward the sustainable development framework of Zhuhai City according to the research conclusion. On one hand, the government should strictly control the development of the urban center area. On the other hand, the secondary urban center area such as Junchang and Doumen need improve the public infrastructure to relieve the imbalance between eastern and western development in Zhuhai City.

Linking adverse outcome pathways and population models: Current state of the science and future directions

EPA Science Inventory

Analysis of population impacts of chemical stressors through the use of modeling provides a linkage between endpoints observed in the individual and ecological risk to the population as a whole. In this presentation, we describe the evolution of an approach developed in our labor...

Bullying Prevention and the Parent Involvement Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kolbert, Jered B.; Schultz, Danielle; Crothers, Laura M.

2014-01-01

A recent meta-analysis of bullying prevention programs provides support for social-ecological theory, in which parent involvement addressing child bullying behaviors is seen as important in preventing school-based bullying. The purpose of this manuscript is to suggest how Epstein and colleagues' parent involvement model can be used as a…

A Model to Explain Plant Growth Promotion Traits: A Multivariate Analysis of 2,211 Bacterial Isolates

PubMed Central

da Costa, Pedro Beschoren; Granada, Camille E.; Ambrosini, Adriana; Moreira, Fernanda; de Souza, Rocheli; dos Passos, João Frederico M.; Arruda, Letícia; Passaglia, Luciane M. P.

2014-01-01

Plant growth-promoting bacteria can greatly assist sustainable farming by improving plant health and biomass while reducing fertilizer use. The plant-microorganism-environment interaction is an open and complex system, and despite the active research in the area, patterns in root ecology are elusive. Here, we simultaneously analyzed the plant growth-promoting bacteria datasets from seven independent studies that shared a methodology for bioprospection and phenotype screening. The soil richness of the isolate's origin was classified by a Principal Component Analysis. A Categorical Principal Component Analysis was used to classify the soil richness according to isolate's indolic compound production, siderophores production and phosphate solubilization abilities, and bacterial genera composition. Multiple patterns and relationships were found and verified with nonparametric hypothesis testing. Including niche colonization in the analysis, we proposed a model to explain the expression of bacterial plant growth-promoting traits according to the soil nutritional status. Our model shows that plants favor interaction with growth hormone producers under rich nutrient conditions but favor nutrient solubilizers under poor conditions. We also performed several comparisons among the different genera, highlighting interesting ecological interactions and limitations. Our model could be used to direct plant growth-promoting bacteria bioprospection and metagenomic sampling. PMID:25542031

Spatial-structural analysis of leafless woody riparian vegetation for hydraulic considerations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weissteiner, Clemens; Jalonen, Johanna; Järvelä, Juha; Rauch, Hans Peter

2013-04-01

Woody riparian vegetation is a vital element of riverine environments. On one hand woody riparian vegetation has to be taken into account from a civil engineering point of view due to boundary shear stress and vegetation drag. On the other hand it has to be considered from a river ecological point of view due to shadowing effects and as a source of organic material for aquatic habitats. In hydrodynamic and hydro-ecological studies the effects of woody riparian vegetation on flow patterns are usually investigated on a very detailed level. On the contrary vegetation elements and their spatial patterns are generally analysed and discussed on the basis of an integral approach measuring for example basal diameters, heights and projected plant areas. For a better understanding of the influence of woody riparian vegetation on turbulent flow and on river ecology, it is essential to record and analyse plant data sets on the same level of quality as for hydrodynamic or hydro-ecologic purposes. As a result of the same scale of the analysis it is possible to incorporate riparian vegetation as a sub-model in the hydraulic analysis. For plant structural components, such as branches on different topological levels it is crucial to record plant geometrical parameters describing the habitus of the plant on branch level. An exact 3D geometrical model of real plants allows for an extraction of various spatial-structural plant parameters. In addition, allometric relationships help to summarize and describe plant traits of riparian vegetation. This paper focuses on the spatial-structural composition of leafless riparia woddy vegetation. Structural and spatial analyses determine detailed geometric properties of the structural components of the plants. Geometrical and topological parameters were recorded with an electro-magnetic scanning device. In total, 23 plants (willows, alders and birches) were analysed in the study. Data were recorded on branch level, which allowed for the development of a 3D geometric plant model. The results are expected to improve knowledge on how the architectural system and allometric relationships of the plants relate to ecological and hydrodynamic properties.

Assessment of Forest Conservation Value Using a Species Distribution Model and Object-based Image Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jin, Y.; Lee, D. K.; Jeong, S. G.

2015-12-01

The ecological and social values of forests have recently been highlighted. Assessments of the biodiversity of forests, as well as their other ecological values, play an important role in regional and national conservation planning. The preservation of habitats is linked to the protection of biodiversity. For mapping habitats, species distribution model (SDM) is used for predicting suitable habitat of significant species, and such distribution modeling is increasingly being used in conservation science. However, the pixel-based analysis does not contain contextual or topological information. In order to provide more accurate habitats predictions, a continuous field view that assumes the real world is required. Here we analyze and compare at different scales, habitats of the Yellow Marten's(Martes Flavigula), which is a top predator and also an umbrella species in South Korea. The object-scale, which is a group of pixels that have similar spatial and spectral characteristics, and pixel-scale were used for SDM. Our analysis using the SDM at different scales suggests that object-scale analysis provides a superior representation of continuous habitat, and thus will be useful in forest conservation planning as well as for species habitat monitoring.

Matrix population models from 20 studies of perennial plant populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ellis, Martha M.; Williams, Jennifer L.; Lesica, Peter; Bell, Timothy J.; Bierzychudek, Paulette; Bowles, Marlin; Crone, Elizabeth E.; Doak, Daniel F.; Ehrlen, Johan; Ellis-Adam, Albertine; McEachern, Kathryn; Ganesan, Rengaian; Latham, Penelope; Luijten, Sheila; Kaye, Thomas N.; Knight, Tiffany M.; Menges, Eric S.; Morris, William F.; den Nijs, Hans; Oostermeijer, Gerard; Quintana-Ascencio, Pedro F.; Shelly, J. Stephen; Stanley, Amanda; Thorpe, Andrea; Tamara, Ticktin; Valverde, Teresa; Weekley, Carl W.

2012-01-01

Demographic transition matrices are one of the most commonly applied population models for both basic and applied ecological research. The relatively simple framework of these models and simple, easily interpretable summary statistics they produce have prompted the wide use of these models across an exceptionally broad range of taxa. Here, we provide annual transition matrices and observed stage structures/population sizes for 20 perennial plant species which have been the focal species for long-term demographic monitoring. These data were assembled as part of the "Testing Matrix Models" working group through the National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis (NCEAS). In sum, these data represent 82 populations with >460 total population-years of data. It is our hope that making these data available will help promote and improve our ability to monitor and understand plant population dynamics.

Matrix population models from 20 studies of perennial plant populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ellis, Martha M.; Williams, Jennifer L.; Lesica, Peter; Bell, Timothy J.; Bierzychudek, Paulette; Bowles, Marlin; Crone, Elizabeth E.; Doak, Daniel F.; Ehrlen, Johan; Ellis-Adam, Albertine; McEachern, Kathryn; Ganesan, Rengaian; Latham, Penelope; Luijten, Sheila; Kaye, Thomas N.; Knight, Tiffany M.; Menges, Eric S.; Morris, William F.; den Nijs, Hans; Oostermeijer, Gerard; Quintana-Ascencio, Pedro F.; Shelly, J. Stephen; Stanley, Amanda; Thorpe, Andrea; Tamara, Ticktin; Valverde, Teresa; Weekley, Carl W.

2012-01-01

Demographic transition matrices are one of the most commonly applied population models for both basic and applied ecological research. The relatively simple framework of these models and simple, easily interpretable summary statistics they produce have prompted the wide use of these models across an exceptionally broad range of taxa. Here, we provide annual transition matrices and observed stage structures/population sizes for 20 perennial plant species which have been the focal species for long-term demographic monitoring. These data were assembled as part of the 'Testing Matrix Models' working group through the National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis (NCEAS). In sum, these data represent 82 populations with >460 total population-years of data. It is our hope that making these data available will help promote and improve our ability to monitor and understand plant population dynamics.

Global dynamics in a stoichiometric food chain model with two limiting nutrients.

PubMed

Chen, Ming; Fan, Meng; Kuang, Yang

2017-07-01

Ecological stoichiometry studies the balance of energy and multiple chemical elements in ecological interactions to establish how the nutrient content affect food-web dynamics and nutrient cycling in ecosystems. In this study, we formulate a food chain with two limiting nutrients in the form of a stoichiometric population model. A comprehensive global analysis of the rich dynamics of the targeted model is explored both analytically and numerically. Chaotic dynamic is observed in this simple stoichiometric food chain model and is compared with traditional model without stoichiometry. The detailed comparison reveals that stoichiometry can reduce the parameter space for chaotic dynamics. Our findings also show that decreasing producer production efficiency may have only a small effect on the consumer growth but a more profound impact on the top predator growth. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Do open-cycle hatcheries relying on tourism conserve sea turtles? Sri Lankan developments and economic-ecological considerations.

PubMed

Tisdell, Clem; Wilson, Clevo

2005-04-01

By combining economic analysis of markets with ecological parameters, this article considers the role that tourism-based sea turtle hatcheries (of an open-cycle type) can play in conserving populations of sea turtles. Background is provided on the nature and development of such hatcheries in Sri Lanka. The modeling facilitates the assessment of the impacts of turtle hatcheries on the conservation of sea turtles and enables the economic and ecological consequences of tourism, based on such hatcheries, to be better appreciated. The results demonstrate that sea turtle hatcheries serving tourists can make a positive contribution to sea turtle conservation, but that their conservation effectiveness depends on the way they are managed. Possible negative effects are also identified. Economic market models are combined with turtle population survival relationships to predict the conservation impact of turtle hatcheries and their consequence for the total economic value obtained from sea turtle populations.

Life satisfaction in early adolescence: personal, neighborhood, school, family, and peer influences.

PubMed

Oberle, Eva; Schonert-Reichl, Kimberly A; Zumbo, Bruno D

2011-07-01

Drawing from an ecological assets framework as well as research and theory on positive youth development, this study examined the relationship of early adolescents' satisfaction with life to trait optimism and assets representing the social contexts in which early adolescents spend most of their time. Self-reports of satisfaction with life, optimism, and ecological assets in the school (school connectedness), neighborhood (perceived neighborhood support), family (perceived parental support), and peer group (positive peer relationships) were assessed in a sample of 1,402 4th to 7th graders (47% female) from 25 public elementary schools. Multilevel modeling (MLM) was conducted to analyze the variability in life satisfaction both at the individual and the school level. As hypothesized, adding optimism and the dimensions representing the ecology of early adolescence to the model significantly reduced the variability in life satisfaction at both levels of analysis. Both personal (optimism) and all of the ecological assets significantly and positively predicted early adolescents' life satisfaction. The results suggest the theoretical and practical utility of an assets approach for understanding life satisfaction in early adolescence.

Local-scale models reveal ecological niche variability in amphibian and reptile communities from two contrasting biogeographic regions

PubMed Central

Santos, Xavier; Felicísimo, Ángel M.

2016-01-01

Ecological Niche Models (ENMs) are widely used to describe how environmental factors influence species distribution. Modelling at a local scale, compared to a large scale within a high environmental gradient, can improve our understanding of ecological species niches. The main goal of this study is to assess and compare the contribution of environmental variables to amphibian and reptile ENMs in two Spanish national parks located in contrasting biogeographic regions, i.e., the Mediterranean and the Atlantic area. The ENMs were built with maximum entropy modelling using 11 environmental variables in each territory. The contributions of these variables to the models were analysed and classified using various statistical procedures (Mann–Whitney U tests, Principal Components Analysis and General Linear Models). Distance to the hydrological network was consistently the most relevant variable for both parks and taxonomic classes. Topographic variables (i.e., slope and altitude) were the second most predictive variables, followed by climatic variables. Differences in variable contribution were observed between parks and taxonomic classes. Variables related to water availability had the larger contribution to the models in the Mediterranean park, while topography variables were decisive in the Atlantic park. Specific response curves to environmental variables were in accordance with the biogeographic affinity of species (Mediterranean and non-Mediterranean species) and taxonomy (amphibians and reptiles). Interestingly, these results were observed for species located in both parks, particularly those situated at their range limits. Our findings show that ecological niche models built at local scale reveal differences in habitat preferences within a wide environmental gradient. Therefore, modelling at local scales rather than assuming large-scale models could be preferable for the establishment of conservation strategies for herptile species in natural parks. PMID:27761304

Understanding movement data and movement processes: current and emerging directions.

PubMed

Schick, Robert S; Loarie, Scott R; Colchero, Fernando; Best, Benjamin D; Boustany, Andre; Conde, Dalia A; Halpin, Patrick N; Joppa, Lucas N; McClellan, Catherine M; Clark, James S

2008-12-01

Animal movement has been the focus on much theoretical and empirical work in ecology over the last 25 years. By studying the causes and consequences of individual movement, ecologists have gained greater insight into the behavior of individuals and the spatial dynamics of populations at increasingly higher levels of organization. In particular, ecologists have focused on the interaction between individuals and their environment in an effort to understand future impacts from habitat loss and climate change. Tools to examine this interaction have included: fractal analysis, first passage time, Lévy flights, multi-behavioral analysis, hidden markov models, and state-space models. Concurrent with the development of movement models has been an increase in the sophistication and availability of hierarchical bayesian models. In this review we bring these two threads together by using hierarchical structures as a framework for reviewing individual models. We synthesize emerging themes in movement ecology, and propose a new hierarchical model for animal movement that builds on these emerging themes. This model moves away from traditional random walks, and instead focuses inference on how moving animals with complex behavior interact with their landscape and make choices about its suitability.

Modelling and simulation of a dynamical system with the Atangana-Baleanu fractional derivative

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Owolabi, Kolade M.

2018-01-01

In this paper, we model an ecological system consisting of a predator and two preys with the newly derived two-step fractional Adams-Bashforth method via the Atangana-Baleanu derivative in the Caputo sense. We analyze the dynamical system for correct choice of parameter values that are biologically meaningful. The local analysis of the main model is based on the application of qualitative theory for ordinary differential equations. By using the fixed point theorem idea, we establish the existence and uniqueness of the solutions. Convergence results of the new scheme are verified in both space and time. Dynamical wave phenomena of solutions are verified via some numerical results obtained for different values of the fractional index, which have some interesting ecological implications.

Using remotely sensed vegetation indices to model ecological pasture conditions in Kara-Unkur watershed, Kyrgyzstan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Masselink, Loes; Baartman, Jantiene; Verbesselt, Jan; Borchardt, Peter

2017-04-01

Kyrgyzstan has a long history of nomadic lifestyle in which pastures play an important role. However, currently the pastures are subject to severe grazing-induced degradation. Deteriorating levels of biomass, palatability and biodiversity reduce the pastures' productivity. To counter this and introduce sustainable pasture management, up-to-date information regarding the ecological conditions of the pastures is essential. This research aimed to investigate the potential of a remote sensing-based methodology to detect changing ecological pasture conditions in the Kara-Unkur watershed, Kyrgyzstan. The relations between Vegetation Indices (VIs) from Landsat ETM+ images and biomass, palatability and species richness field data were investigated. Both simple and multiple linear regression (MLR) analyses, including terrain attributes, were applied. Subsequently, trends of these three pasture conditions were mapped using time series analysis. The results show that biomass is most accurately estimated by a model including the Modified Soil Adjusted Vegetation Index (MSAVI) and a slope factor (R2 = 0.65, F = 0.0006). Regarding palatability, a model including the Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI), Northness Index, Near Infrared (NIR) and Red band was most accurate (R2 = 0.61, F = 0.0160). Species richness was most accurately estimated by a model including Topographic Wetness Index (TWI), Eastness Index and estimated biomass (R2 = 0.81, F = 0.0028). Subsequent trend analyses of all three estimated ecological pasture conditions presented very similar trend patterns. Despite the need for a more robust validation, this study confirms the high potential of a remote sensing based methodology to detect changing ecological pasture conditions.

Can the concept of fundamental and realized niches be applied to the distribution of dominant phytoplankton in the global ocean?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dowell, M.; Moore, T.; Follows, M.; Dutkiewicz, S.

2006-12-01

In recent years there has been significant progress both in the use of satellite ocean colour remote sensing and coupled hydrodynamic biological models for producing maps of different dominant phytoplankton groups in the global ocean. In parallel to these initiatives, there is ongoing research largely following on from Alan Longhurst's seminal work on defining a template of distinct ecological and biogeochemical provinces for the oceans based on their physical and biochemical characteristics. For these products and models to be of maximum use in their subsequent inclusion in re-analysis and climate scale models, there is a need to understand how the "observed" distributions of dominant phytoplankton (realized niche) coincide with of the environmental constraints in which they occur (fundamental niche). In the current paper, we base our analysis on the recently published results on the distribution of dominant phytoplankton species at global scale, resulting both from satellite and model analysis. Furthermore, we will present research in defining biogeochemical provinces using satellite and model data inputs and a fuzzy logic based approach. This will be compared with ongoing modelling efforts, which include competitive exclusion and therefore compatible with the definition of the realized ecological niche, to define the emergent distribution of dominant phytoplankton species. Ultimately we investigate the coherence of these two distinct approaches in studying phytoplankton distributions and propose the significance of this in the context of modelling and analysis at various scales.

Model-guided fieldwork: practical guidelines for multidisciplinary research on wildlife ecological and epidemiological dynamics

PubMed Central

Restif, Olivier; Hayman, David T S; Pulliam, Juliet R C; Plowright, Raina K; George, Dylan B; Luis, Angela D; Cunningham, Andrew A; Bowen, Richard A; Fooks, Anthony R; O'Shea, Thomas J; Wood, James L N; Webb, Colleen T

2012-01-01

Infectious disease ecology has recently raised its public profile beyond the scientific community due to the major threats that wildlife infections pose to biological conservation, animal welfare, human health and food security. As we start unravelling the full extent of emerging infectious diseases, there is an urgent need to facilitate multidisciplinary research in this area. Even though research in ecology has always had a strong theoretical component, cultural and technical hurdles often hamper direct collaboration between theoreticians and empiricists. Building upon our collective experience of multidisciplinary research and teaching in this area, we propose practical guidelines to help with effective integration among mathematical modelling, fieldwork and laboratory work. Modelling tools can be used at all steps of a field-based research programme, from the formulation of working hypotheses to field study design and data analysis. We illustrate our model-guided fieldwork framework with two case studies we have been conducting on wildlife infectious diseases: plague transmission in prairie dogs and lyssavirus dynamics in American and African bats. These demonstrate that mechanistic models, if properly integrated in research programmes, can provide a framework for holistic approaches to complex biological systems. PMID:22809422

Integrating models with data in ecology and palaeoecology: advances towards a model-data fusion approach.

PubMed

Peng, Changhui; Guiot, Joel; Wu, Haibin; Jiang, Hong; Luo, Yiqi

2011-05-01

It is increasingly being recognized that global ecological research requires novel methods and strategies in which to combine process-based ecological models and data in cohesive, systematic ways. Model-data fusion (MDF) is an emerging area of research in ecology and palaeoecology. It provides a new quantitative approach that offers a high level of empirical constraint over model predictions based on observations using inverse modelling and data assimilation (DA) techniques. Increasing demands to integrate model and data methods in the past decade has led to MDF utilization in palaeoecology, ecology and earth system sciences. This paper reviews key features and principles of MDF and highlights different approaches with regards to DA. After providing a critical evaluation of the numerous benefits of MDF and its current applications in palaeoecology (i.e., palaeoclimatic reconstruction, palaeovegetation and palaeocarbon storage) and ecology (i.e. parameter and uncertainty estimation, model error identification, remote sensing and ecological forecasting), the paper discusses method limitations, current challenges and future research direction. In the ongoing data-rich era of today's world, MDF could become an important diagnostic and prognostic tool in which to improve our understanding of ecological processes while testing ecological theory and hypotheses and forecasting changes in ecosystem structure, function and services. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.

Evaluation of DGVMs in tropical areas: linking patterns of vegetation cover, climate and fire to ecological processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

D'Onofrio, Donatella; von Hardenberg, Jost; Baudena, Mara

2017-04-01

Many current Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs), including those incorporated into Earth System Models (ESMs), are able to realistically reproduce the distribution of the most worldwide biomes. However, they display high uncertainty in predicting the forest, savanna and grassland distributions and the transitions between them in tropical areas. These biomes are the most productive terrestrial ecosystems, and owing to their different biogeophysical and biogeochemical characteristics, future changes in their distributions could have also impacts on climate states. In particular, expected increasing temperature and CO2, modified precipitation regimes, as well as increasing land-use intensity could have large impacts on global biogeochemical cycles and precipitation, affecting the land-climate interactions. The difficulty of the DGVMs in simulating tropical vegetation, especially savanna structure and occurrence, has been associated with the way they represent the ecological processes and feedbacks between biotic and abiotic conditions. The inclusion of appropriate ecological mechanisms under present climatic conditions is essential for obtaining reliable future projections of vegetation and climate states. In this work we analyse observed relationships of tree and grass cover with climate and fire, and the current ecological understanding of the mechanisms driving the forest-savanna-grassland transition in Africa to evaluate the outcomes of a current state-of-the-art DGVM and to assess which ecological processes need to be included or improved within the model. Specifically, we analyse patterns of woody and herbaceous cover and fire return times from MODIS satellite observations, rainfall annual average and seasonality from TRMM satellite measurements and tree phenology information from the ESA global land cover map, comparing them with the outcomes of the LPJ-GUESS DGVM, also used by the EC-Earth global climate model. The comparison analysis with the LPJ-GUESS simulations suggests possible improvements in the model representations of tree-grass competition for water and in the vegetation-fire interaction. The proposed method could be useful for evaluating DGVMs in tropical areas, especially in the phase of model setting-up, before the coupling with Earth System Models. This could help in improving the simulations of ecological processes and consequently of land-climate interactions.

A hyper-temporal remote sensing protocol for high-resolution mapping of ecological sites

PubMed Central

Karl, Jason W.

2017-01-01

Ecological site classification has emerged as a highly effective land management framework, but its utility at a regional scale has been limited due to the spatial ambiguity of ecological site locations in the U.S. or the absence of ecological site maps in other regions of the world. In response to these shortcomings, this study evaluated the use of hyper-temporal remote sensing (i.e., hundreds of images) for high spatial resolution mapping of ecological sites. We posit that hyper-temporal remote sensing can provide novel insights into the spatial variability of ecological sites by quantifying the temporal response of land surface spectral properties. This temporal response provides a spectral ‘fingerprint’ of the soil-vegetation-climate relationship which is central to the concept of ecological sites. Consequently, the main objective of this study was to predict the spatial distribution of ecological sites in a semi-arid rangeland using a 28-year time series of normalized difference vegetation index from Landsat TM 5 data and modeled using support vector machine classification. Results from this study show that support vector machine classification using hyper-temporal remote sensing imagery was effective in modeling ecological site classes, with a 62% correct classification. These results were compared to Gridded Soil Survey Geographic database and expert delineated maps of ecological sites which had a 51 and 89% correct classification, respectively. An analysis of the effects of ecological state on ecological site misclassifications revealed that sites in degraded states (e.g., shrub-dominated/shrubland and bare/annuals) had a higher rate of misclassification due to their close spectral similarity with other ecological sites. This study identified three important factors that need to be addressed to improve future model predictions: 1) sampling designs need to fully represent the range of both within class (i.e., states) and between class (i.e., ecological sites) spectral variability through time, 2) field sampling protocols that accurately characterize key soil properties (e.g., texture, depth) need to be adopted, and 3) additional environmental covariates (e.g. terrain attributes) need to be evaluated that may help further differentiate sites with similar spectral signals. Finally, the proposed hyper-temporal remote sensing framework may provide a standardized approach to evaluate and test our ecological site concepts through examining differences in vegetation dynamics in response to climatic variability and other drivers of land-use change. Results from this study demonstrate the efficacy of the hyper-temporal remote sensing approach for high resolution mapping of ecological sites, and highlights its utility in terms of reduced cost and time investment relative to traditional manual mapping approaches. PMID:28414731

A hyper-temporal remote sensing protocol for high-resolution mapping of ecological sites.

PubMed

Maynard, Jonathan J; Karl, Jason W

2017-01-01

Ecological site classification has emerged as a highly effective land management framework, but its utility at a regional scale has been limited due to the spatial ambiguity of ecological site locations in the U.S. or the absence of ecological site maps in other regions of the world. In response to these shortcomings, this study evaluated the use of hyper-temporal remote sensing (i.e., hundreds of images) for high spatial resolution mapping of ecological sites. We posit that hyper-temporal remote sensing can provide novel insights into the spatial variability of ecological sites by quantifying the temporal response of land surface spectral properties. This temporal response provides a spectral 'fingerprint' of the soil-vegetation-climate relationship which is central to the concept of ecological sites. Consequently, the main objective of this study was to predict the spatial distribution of ecological sites in a semi-arid rangeland using a 28-year time series of normalized difference vegetation index from Landsat TM 5 data and modeled using support vector machine classification. Results from this study show that support vector machine classification using hyper-temporal remote sensing imagery was effective in modeling ecological site classes, with a 62% correct classification. These results were compared to Gridded Soil Survey Geographic database and expert delineated maps of ecological sites which had a 51 and 89% correct classification, respectively. An analysis of the effects of ecological state on ecological site misclassifications revealed that sites in degraded states (e.g., shrub-dominated/shrubland and bare/annuals) had a higher rate of misclassification due to their close spectral similarity with other ecological sites. This study identified three important factors that need to be addressed to improve future model predictions: 1) sampling designs need to fully represent the range of both within class (i.e., states) and between class (i.e., ecological sites) spectral variability through time, 2) field sampling protocols that accurately characterize key soil properties (e.g., texture, depth) need to be adopted, and 3) additional environmental covariates (e.g. terrain attributes) need to be evaluated that may help further differentiate sites with similar spectral signals. Finally, the proposed hyper-temporal remote sensing framework may provide a standardized approach to evaluate and test our ecological site concepts through examining differences in vegetation dynamics in response to climatic variability and other drivers of land-use change. Results from this study demonstrate the efficacy of the hyper-temporal remote sensing approach for high resolution mapping of ecological sites, and highlights its utility in terms of reduced cost and time investment relative to traditional manual mapping approaches.

Watershed characterization and analysis using the VELMA model

EPA Science Inventory

We developed a broadly applicable watershed simulator – VELMA (Visualizing Ecosystem and Land Management Assessments) – to characterize hydrological and ecological processes essential to the healthy functioning of watersheds, and to identify best management practices ...

Valuing ecological systems and services

PubMed Central

Kubiszewski, Ida; Ervin, David; Bluffstone, Randy; Boyd, James; Brown, Darrell; Chang, Heejun; Dujon, Veronica; Granek, Elise; Polasky, Stephen; Shandas, Vivek; Yeakley, Alan

2011-01-01

Making trade-offs between ecological services and other contributors to human well-being is a difficult but critical process that requires valuation. This allows both better recognition of the ecological, social, and economic trade-offs and also allows us to bill those who use up or destroy ecological services and reward those that produce or enhance them. It also aids improved ecosystems policy. In this paper we clarify some of the controversies in defining the contributions to human well-being from functioning ecosystems, many of which people are not even aware of. We go on to describe the applicability of the various valuation methods that can be used in estimating the benefits of ecosystem services. Finally, we describe some recent case studies and lay out the research agenda for ecosystem services analysis, modeling, and valuation going forward. PMID:21876725

Ecological Characterization Data for the 2004 Composite Analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Downs, Janelle L.; Simmons, Mary A.; Stegen, Jennifer A.

2004-11-01

A composite analysis is required by U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Order 435.1 to ensure public safety through the management of active and planned low-level radioactive waste disposal facilities associated with the Hanford Site. The original Hanford Site Composite Analysis of 1998 must be revised and submitted to DOE Headquarters (DOE-HQ) in 2004 because of revisions to waste site information in the 100, 200, and 300 Areas, updated performance assessments and environmental impact statements (EIS), changes in inventory estimates for key sites and constituents, and a change in the definition of offsite receptors. Beginning in fiscal year (FY) 2003, themore » DOE Richland Operations Office (DOE-RL) initiated activities, including the development of data packages, to support the 2004 Composite Analysis. This report describes the data compiled in FY 2003 to support ecological site assessment modeling for the 2004 Composite Analysis. This work was conducted as part of the Characterization of Systems Task of the Groundwater Remediation Project (formerly the Groundwater Protection Program) managed by Fluor Hanford, Inc., Richland, Washington. The purpose of this report is to provide summaries of the characterization information and available spatial data on the biological resources and ecological receptors found in the upland, riparian, aquatic, and island habitats on the Hanford Site. These data constitute the reference information used to establish parameters for the ecological risk assessment module of the System Assessment Capability and other assessment activities requiring information on the presence and distribution of biota on the Hanford Site.« less

Environmental research program. 1995 Annual report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Brown, N.J.

1996-06-01

The objective of the Environmental Research Program is to enhance the understanding of, and mitigate the effects of pollutants on health, ecological systems, global and regional climate, and air quality. The program is multidisciplinary and includes fundamental research and development in efficient and environmentally benign combustion, pollutant abatement and destruction, and novel methods of detection and analysis of criteria and noncriteria pollutants. This diverse group conducts investigations in combustion, atmospheric and marine processes, flue-gas chemistry, and ecological systems. Combustion chemistry research emphasizes modeling at microscopic and macroscopic scales. At the microscopic scale, functional sensitivity analysis is used to explore themore » nature of the potential-to-dynamics relationships for reacting systems. Rate coefficients are estimated using quantum dynamics and path integral approaches. At the macroscopic level, combustion processes are modelled using chemical mechanisms at the appropriate level of detail dictated by the requirements of predicting particular aspects of combustion behavior. Parallel computing has facilitated the efforts to use detailed chemistry in models of turbulent reacting flow to predict minor species concentrations.« less

[Study on ecological suitability of Gardenia jasminoides based on ArcGIS and Maxent model].

PubMed

Miao, Qi; Yuan, Yuan-Jian; Luo, Guang-Ming; Wei, Chun-Hua; Rao, Ya-Qi; Gong, Yu-Hong; Zhang, Lan; Shao, Jian; Dong, Yan-Kai

2016-09-01

The application of ArcGIS and Maxent modelto analyze the ecological suitability of Gardenia jasminoides.Taking 85 batches of Gardenia as the basis of analysis, the selection of ecological factors for the growth of Gardenia. The results showed that the average precipitation in April, the average precipitation in November and the average precipitation in August were the most important factors affecting the growth of Gardenia. The relative concentration of Gardenia suitable growth region,north to the south of Shaanxi province, south of Henan, central Anhui, south to the north of Hainan province, west to central Sichuan province, east of Zhejiang coastal area, northeast of Taiwan. Copyright© by the Chinese Pharmaceutical Association.

Designing Industrial Networks Using Ecological Food Web Metrics.

PubMed

Layton, Astrid; Bras, Bert; Weissburg, Marc

2016-10-18

Biologically Inspired Design (biomimicry) and Industrial Ecology both look to natural systems to enhance the sustainability and performance of engineered products, systems and industries. Bioinspired design (BID) traditionally has focused on a unit operation and single product level. In contrast, this paper describes how principles of network organization derived from analysis of ecosystem properties can be applied to industrial system networks. Specifically, this paper examines the applicability of particular food web matrix properties as design rules for economically and biologically sustainable industrial networks, using an optimization model developed for a carpet recycling network. Carpet recycling network designs based on traditional cost and emissions based optimization are compared to designs obtained using optimizations based solely on ecological food web metrics. The analysis suggests that networks optimized using food web metrics also were superior from a traditional cost and emissions perspective; correlations between optimization using ecological metrics and traditional optimization ranged generally from 0.70 to 0.96, with flow-based metrics being superior to structural parameters. Four structural food parameters provided correlations nearly the same as that obtained using all structural parameters, but individual structural parameters provided much less satisfactory correlations. The analysis indicates that bioinspired design principles from ecosystems can lead to both environmentally and economically sustainable industrial resource networks, and represent guidelines for designing sustainable industry networks.

Meta-analysis of high-latitude nitrogen-addition and warming studies imply ecological mechanisms overlooked by land models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bouskill, N. J.; Riley, W. J.; Tang, J.

2014-08-01

Accurate representation of ecosystem processes in land models is crucial for reducing predictive uncertainty in energy and greenhouse gas feedbacks with the atmosphere. Here we describe an observational and modeling meta-analysis approach to benchmark land models, and apply the method to the land model CLM4.5 with two versions of belowground biogeochemistry. We focused our analysis on the above and belowground high-latitude ecosystem responses to warming and nitrogen addition, and identified mechanisms absent, or poorly parameterized in CLM4.5. While the two model versions predicted similar trajectories for soil carbon stocks following both types of perturbation, other variables (e.g., belowground respiration) differed from the observations in both magnitude and direction, indicating the underlying mechanisms are inadequate for representing high-latitude ecosystems. The observational synthesis attribute these differences to missing representations of microbial dynamics, characterization of above and belowground functional processes, and nutrient competition. We use the observational meta-analyses to discuss potential approaches to improving the current models (e.g., the inclusion of dynamic vegetation or different microbial functional guilds), however, we also raise a cautionary note on the selection of data sets and experiments to be included in a meta-analysis. For example, the concentrations of nitrogen applied in the synthesized field experiments (average =72 kg ha-1 yr-1) are many times higher than projected soil nitrogen concentrations (from nitrogen deposition and release during mineralization), which preclude a rigorous evaluation of the model responses to nitrogen perturbation. Overall, we demonstrate here that elucidating ecological mechanisms via meta-analysis can identify deficiencies in both ecosystem models and empirical experiments.

Meta-analysis of high-latitude nitrogen-addition and warming studies imply ecological mechanisms overlooked by land models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bouskill, N. J.; Riley, W. J.; Tang, J.

2014-08-18

Accurate representation of ecosystem processes in land models is crucial for reducing predictive uncertainty in energy and greenhouse gas feedbacks with the atmosphere. Here we describe an observational and modeling meta-analysis approach to benchmark land models, and apply the method to the land model CLM4.5 with two versions of belowground biogeochemistry. We focused our analysis on the above and belowground high-latitude ecosystem responses to warming and nitrogen addition, and identified mechanisms absent, or poorly parameterized in CLM4.5. While the two model versions predicted similar trajectories for soil carbon stocks following both types of perturbation, other variables (e.g., belowground respiration) differedmore » from the observations in both magnitude and direction, indicating the underlying mechanisms are inadequate for representing high-latitude ecosystems. The observational synthesis attribute these differences to missing representations of microbial dynamics, characterization of above and belowground functional processes, and nutrient competition. We use the observational meta-analyses to discuss potential approaches to improving the current models (e.g., the inclusion of dynamic vegetation or different microbial functional guilds), however, we also raise a cautionary note on the selection of data sets and experiments to be included in a meta-analysis. For example, the concentrations of nitrogen applied in the synthesized field experiments (average =72 kg ha -1 yr -1) are many times higher than projected soil nitrogen concentrations (from nitrogen deposition and release during mineralization), which preclude a rigorous evaluation of the model responses to nitrogen perturbation. Overall, we demonstrate here that elucidating ecological mechanisms via meta-analysis can identify deficiencies in both ecosystem models and empirical experiments.« less

Modelling ecological and human exposure to POPs in Venice lagoon - Part II: Quantitative uncertainty and sensitivity analysis in coupled exposure models.

PubMed

Radomyski, Artur; Giubilato, Elisa; Ciffroy, Philippe; Critto, Andrea; Brochot, Céline; Marcomini, Antonio

2016-11-01

The study is focused on applying uncertainty and sensitivity analysis to support the application and evaluation of large exposure models where a significant number of parameters and complex exposure scenarios might be involved. The recently developed MERLIN-Expo exposure modelling tool was applied to probabilistically assess the ecological and human exposure to PCB 126 and 2,3,7,8-TCDD in the Venice lagoon (Italy). The 'Phytoplankton', 'Aquatic Invertebrate', 'Fish', 'Human intake' and PBPK models available in MERLIN-Expo library were integrated to create a specific food web to dynamically simulate bioaccumulation in various aquatic species and in the human body over individual lifetimes from 1932 until 1998. MERLIN-Expo is a high tier exposure modelling tool allowing propagation of uncertainty on the model predictions through Monte Carlo simulation. Uncertainty in model output can be further apportioned between parameters by applying built-in sensitivity analysis tools. In this study, uncertainty has been extensively addressed in the distribution functions to describe the data input and the effect on model results by applying sensitivity analysis techniques (screening Morris method, regression analysis, and variance-based method EFAST). In the exposure scenario developed for the Lagoon of Venice, the concentrations of 2,3,7,8-TCDD and PCB 126 in human blood turned out to be mainly influenced by a combination of parameters (half-lives of the chemicals, body weight variability, lipid fraction, food assimilation efficiency), physiological processes (uptake/elimination rates), environmental exposure concentrations (sediment, water, food) and eating behaviours (amount of food eaten). In conclusion, this case study demonstrated feasibility of MERLIN-Expo to be successfully employed in integrated, high tier exposure assessment. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

An ecologic study of prostate-specific antigen screening and prostate cancer mortality in nine geographic areas of the United States.

PubMed

Shaw, Pamela A; Etzioni, Ruth; Zeliadt, Steven B; Mariotto, Angela; Karnofski, Kent; Penson, David F; Weiss, Noel S; Feuer, Eric J

2004-12-01

Ecologic studies of cancer screening examine cancer mortality rates in relation to use of population screening. These studies can be confounded by treatment patterns or influenced by choice of outcome and time horizon. Interpretation can be complicated by uncertainty about when mortality differences might be expected. The authors examined these issues in an ecologic analysis of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) screening and prostate cancer mortality across nine cancer registries in the United States. Results suggested a weak trend for areas with greater PSA screening rates to have greater declines in prostate cancer mortality; however, the magnitude of this trend varied considerably with the time horizon and outcome measure. A computer model was used to determine whether divergence of mortality declines would be expected under an assumption of a clinically significant survival benefit due to screening. Given a mean lead time of 5 years, the model projected that differences in mortality between high- and low-use areas should be apparent by 1999 in the absence of other factors affecting mortality. The authors concluded that modest differences in PSA screening rates across areas, together with additional sources of variation, could have produced a negative ecologic result. Ecologic analyses of the effectiveness of PSA testing should be interpreted with caution.

A Tale of Four Stories: Soil Ecology, Theory, Evolution and the Publication System

PubMed Central

Barot, Sébastien; Blouin, Manuel; Fontaine, Sébastien; Jouquet, Pascal; Lata, Jean-Christophe; Mathieu, Jérôme

2007-01-01

Background Soil ecology has produced a huge corpus of results on relations between soil organisms, ecosystem processes controlled by these organisms and links between belowground and aboveground processes. However, some soil scientists think that soil ecology is short of modelling and evolutionary approaches and has developed too independently from general ecology. We have tested quantitatively these hypotheses through a bibliographic study (about 23000 articles) comparing soil ecology journals, generalist ecology journals, evolutionary ecology journals and theoretical ecology journals. Findings We have shown that soil ecology is not well represented in generalist ecology journals and that soil ecologists poorly use modelling and evolutionary approaches. Moreover, the articles published by a typical soil ecology journal (Soil Biology and Biochemistry) are cited by and cite low percentages of articles published in generalist ecology journals, evolutionary ecology journals and theoretical ecology journals. Conclusion This confirms our hypotheses and suggests that soil ecology would benefit from an effort towards modelling and evolutionary approaches. This effort should promote the building of a general conceptual framework for soil ecology and bridges between soil ecology and general ecology. We give some historical reasons for the parsimonious use of modelling and evolutionary approaches by soil ecologists. We finally suggest that a publication system that classifies journals according to their Impact Factors and their level of generality is probably inadequate to integrate “particularity” (empirical observations) and “generality” (general theories), which is the goal of all natural sciences. Such a system might also be particularly detrimental to the development of a science such as ecology that is intrinsically multidisciplinary. PMID:18043755

Understanding and predicting ecological dynamics: Are major surprises inevitable

USGS Publications Warehouse

Doak, Daniel F.; Estes, James A.; Halpern, Benjamin S.; Jacob, Ute; Lindberg, D.R.; Lovvorn, James R.; Monson, Daniel H.; Tinker, M. Tim; Williams, Terrie M.; Wootton, J. Timothy; Carroll, Ian; Emmerson, Mark; Micheli, Fiorenza; Novak, Mark

2008-01-01

Ecological surprises, substantial and unanticipated changes in the abundance of one or more species that result from previously unsuspected processes, are a common outcome of both experiments and observations in community and population ecology. Here, we give examples of such surprises along with the results of a survey of well-established field ecologists, most of whom have encountered one or more surprises over the course of their careers. Truly surprising results are common enough to require their consideration in any reasonable effort to characterize nature and manage natural resources. We classify surprises as dynamic-, pattern-, or intervention-based, and we speculate on the common processes that cause ecological systems to so often surprise us. A long-standing and still growing concern in the ecological literature is how best to make predictions of future population and community dynamics. Although most work on this subject involves statistical aspects of data analysis and modeling, the frequency and nature of ecological surprises imply that uncertainty cannot be easily tamed through improved analytical procedures, and that prudent management of both exploited and conserved communities will require precautionary and adaptive management approaches.

Road ecology in environmental impact assessment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Karlson, Mårten, E-mail: mkarlso@kth.se; Mörtberg, Ulla, E-mail: mortberg@kth.se; Balfors, Berit, E-mail: balfors@kth.se

Transport infrastructure has a wide array of effects on terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, and road and railway networks are increasingly being associated with a loss of biodiversity worldwide. Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) and Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) are two legal frameworks that concern physical planning, with the potential to identify, predict, mitigate and/or compensate transport infrastructure effects with negative impacts on biodiversity. The aim of this study was to review the treatment of ecological impacts in environmental assessment of transport infrastructure plans and projects. A literature review on the topic of EIA, SEA, biodiversity and transport infrastructure was conducted, andmore » 17 problem categories on the treatment of biodiversity were formulated by means of a content analysis. A review of environmental impact statements and environmental reports (EIS/ER) produced between 2005 and 2013 in Sweden and the UK was then conducted using the list of problems as a checklist. The results show that the treatment of ecological impacts has improved substantially over the years, but that some impacts remain problematic; the treatment of fragmentation, the absence of quantitative analysis and that the impact assessment study area was in general delimited without consideration for the scales of ecological processes. Actions to improve the treatment of ecological impacts could include improved guidelines for spatial and temporal delimitation, and the establishment of a quantitative framework including tools, methods and threshold values. Additionally, capacity building and further method development of EIA and SEA friendly spatial ecological models can aid in clarifying the costs as well as the benefits in development/biodiversity tradeoffs. - Highlights: • The treatment of ecological impacts in EIA and SEA has improved. • Quantitative methods for ecological impact assessment were rarely used • Fragmentation effects were recognized but not analysed.« less

Adaptive environmental management of tourism in the Province of Siena, Italy using the ecological footprint.

PubMed

Patterson, Trista M; Niccolucci, Valentina; Marchettini, Nadia

2008-01-01

Adaptive management as applied to tourism policy treats management policies as experiments that probe the responses of the system as human behavior changes. We present a conceptual systems model that incorporates the gap between observed and desired levels of the ecological footprint with respect to biocapacity. Addressing this gap (or 'overshoot') can inform strategies to increase or decrease visitation or its associated consumption in the coming years. The feedback mechanism in this conceptual model incorporates a gap between observed and desired ecological footprint levels of tourists and residents. The work is based on longer-term and ongoing study of tourism impacts and ecological footprint assessments from the SPIN-Eco Project. We present historical tourism and environmental data from the province of Siena, Italy and discuss the use of discrete, static environmental indicators as part of an iterative feedback process to manage tourism within biophysical limits. We discuss a necessary shift of emphasis from certain and static numbers to a process-based management model that can reflect slow changes to biophysical resources. As underscored by ecological footprint analysis, the energy and material use associated with tourism and local activity can erode natural capital foundations if that use exceeds the area's biological capacity to support it. The dynamic, and iterative process of using such indicators as management feedback allows us to view sustainability more accurately as a transition and journey, rather than a static destination to which management must arrive.

Ecological Speciation in Nolina parviflora (Asparagaceae): Lacking Spatial Connectivity along of the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt

PubMed Central

Ruiz-Sanchez, Eduardo; Specht, Chelsea D.

2014-01-01

The hypothesis of ecological speciation states that as populations diverge in different niches, reproductive isolation evolves as a by-product of adaptation to these different environments. In this context, we used Nolina parviflora as a model to test if this species evolved via ecological speciation and to explore current and historical gene flow among its populations. Nolina parviflora is a montane species endemic to Mexico with its geographical distribution restricted largely to the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt. This mountain range is one of the most complex geological regions in Mexico, having undergone volcanism from the mid-Miocene to the present. Ecologically, the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt possesses different types of vegetation, including tropical dry forest; oak, pine, pine-oak, and pine-juniper forests; and xerophytic scrub - all of which maintain populations of N. parviflora. Using species distribution models, climatic analyses, spatial connectivity and morphological comparisons, we found significant differences in climatic and morphological variables between populations of N. parviflora in two distinct Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt regions (east vs. west). This could mean that the geographically isolated populations diverged from one another via niche divergence, indicating ecological speciation. Spatial connectivity analysis revealed no connectivity between these regions under the present or last glacial maximum climate models, indicating a lack of gene flow between the populations of the two regions. The results imply that these populations may encompass more than a single species. PMID:24905911

Ecological speciation in Nolina parviflora (Asparagaceae): lacking spatial connectivity along of the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt.

PubMed

Ruiz-Sanchez, Eduardo; Specht, Chelsea D

2014-01-01

The hypothesis of ecological speciation states that as populations diverge in different niches, reproductive isolation evolves as a by-product of adaptation to these different environments. In this context, we used Nolina parviflora as a model to test if this species evolved via ecological speciation and to explore current and historical gene flow among its populations. Nolina parviflora is a montane species endemic to Mexico with its geographical distribution restricted largely to the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt. This mountain range is one of the most complex geological regions in Mexico, having undergone volcanism from the mid-Miocene to the present. Ecologically, the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt possesses different types of vegetation, including tropical dry forest; oak, pine, pine-oak, and pine-juniper forests; and xerophytic scrub--all of which maintain populations of N. parviflora. Using species distribution models, climatic analyses, spatial connectivity and morphological comparisons, we found significant differences in climatic and morphological variables between populations of N. parviflora in two distinct Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt regions (east vs. west). This could mean that the geographically isolated populations diverged from one another via niche divergence, indicating ecological speciation. Spatial connectivity analysis revealed no connectivity between these regions under the present or last glacial maximum climate models, indicating a lack of gene flow between the populations of the two regions. The results imply that these populations may encompass more than a single species.

Inferential consequences of modeling rather than measuring snow accumulation in studies of animal ecology

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cross, Paul C.; Klaver, Robert W.; Brennan, Angela; Creel, Scott; Beckmann, Jon P.; Higgs, Megan D.; Scurlock, Brandon M.

2013-01-01

Abstract. It is increasingly common for studies of animal ecology to use model-based predictions of environmental variables as explanatory or predictor variables, even though model prediction uncertainty is typically unknown. To demonstrate the potential for misleading inferences when model predictions with error are used in place of direct measurements, we compared snow water equivalent (SWE) and snow depth as predicted by the Snow Data Assimilation System (SNODAS) to field measurements of SWE and snow depth. We examined locations on elk (Cervus canadensis) winter ranges in western Wyoming, because modeled data such as SNODAS output are often used for inferences on elk ecology. Overall, SNODAS predictions tended to overestimate field measurements, prediction uncertainty was high, and the difference between SNODAS predictions and field measurements was greater in snow shadows for both snow variables compared to non-snow shadow areas. We used a simple simulation of snow effects on the probability of an elk being killed by a predator to show that, if SNODAS prediction uncertainty was ignored, we might have mistakenly concluded that SWE was not an important factor in where elk were killed in predatory attacks during the winter. In this simulation, we were interested in the effects of snow at finer scales (2) than the resolution of SNODAS. If bias were to decrease when SNODAS predictions are averaged over coarser scales, SNODAS would be applicable to population-level ecology studies. In our study, however, averaging predictions over moderate to broad spatial scales (9–2200 km2) did not reduce the differences between SNODAS predictions and field measurements. This study highlights the need to carefully evaluate two issues when using model output as an explanatory variable in subsequent analysis: (1) the model’s resolution relative to the scale of the ecological question of interest and (2) the implications of prediction uncertainty on inferences when using model predictions as explanatory or predictor variables.

Modeling the temporal dynamics of intertidal benthic infauna biomass with environmental factors: Impact assessment of land reclamation.

PubMed

Yang, Ye; Chui, Ting Fong May; Shen, Ping Ping; Yang, Yang; Gu, Ji Dong

2018-03-15

Anthropogenic activities such as land reclamation are threatening tidal marshes worldwide. This study's hypothesis is that land reclamation in a semi-enclosed bay alters the seasonal dynamics of intertidal benthic infauna, which is a key component in the tidal marsh ecosystem. Mai Po Tidal Marsh, Deep Bay, Pearl River Estuary, China was used as a case study to evaluate the hypothesis. Ecological models that simulate benthic biomass dynamics with governing environmental factors were developed, and various scenario experiments were conducted to evaluate the impact of reclamations. Environmental variables, selected from the areas of hydrodynamics, meteorology, and water quality based on correlation analysis, were used to generate Bayesian regression models for biomass prediction. The best-performing model, which considered average water age (i.e., a hydrodynamic indicator of estuarine circulation) in the previous month, salinity variation (i.e., standard deviation of salinity), and the total sunny period in the current month, captured well both seasonal and yearly trends in the benthic infauna observations from 2002 to 2008. This model was then used to simulate biomass dynamics with varying inputs of water age and salinity variation from coastal numerical models of different reclamation scenarios. The simulation results suggest that the reclamation in 2007 decreased the spatial and annual average benthic infauna biomass in the tidal marsh by 20%, which agreed with the 28% biomass decrease recorded by field survey. The range of biomass seasonal variation also decreased significantly from 2.1 to 230.5g/m 2 (without any reclamation) to 1.2 to 131.1g/m 2 (after the 2007 reclamation), which further demonstrates the substantial ecological impact of reclamation. The ecological model developed in this study could simulate seasonal biomass dynamics and evaluate the ecological impact of reclamation projects. It can therefore be applied to evaluate the ecological impact of coastal engineering projects for tidal marsh management, conservation, and restoration. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Thermodynamic and themoeconomic optimization of isothermal endoreversible chemical engine models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ocampo-García, A.; Barranco-Jiménez, M. A.; Angulo-Brown, F.

2017-12-01

A branch of finite-time thermodynamics (FTT) is the thermoeconomical analysis of simplified power plant models. The most studied models are those of the Curzon-Ahlborn (CA) and Novikov-Chambadal types. In the decade of 90's of the past century, the FTT analysis of thermal engines was extended to chemical engines. In the present paper we made a thermoeconomical analysis of heat engines and chemical engines of the CA and Novikov types. This study is carried out for isothermal endoreversible chemical engine models with a linear mass transfer law and under three different modes of thermodynamic performance (maximum power, maximum ecological function and maximum efficient power).

The molecular dimension of microbial species: 1. Ecological distinctions among, and homogeneity within, putative ecotypes of Synechococcus inhabiting the cyanobacterial mat of Mushroom Spring, Yellowstone National Park

PubMed Central

Becraft, Eric D.; Wood, Jason M.; Rusch, Douglas B.; Kühl, Michael; Jensen, Sheila I.; Bryant, Donald A.; Roberts, David W.; Cohan, Frederick M.; Ward, David M.

2015-01-01

Based on the Stable Ecotype Model, evolution leads to the divergence of ecologically distinct populations (e.g., with different niches and/or behaviors) of ecologically interchangeable membership. In this study, pyrosequencing was used to provide deep sequence coverage of Synechococcus psaA genes and transcripts over a large number of habitat types in the Mushroom Spring microbial mat. Putative ecological species [putative ecotypes (PEs)], which were predicted by an evolutionary simulation based on the Stable Ecotype Model (Ecotype Simulation), exhibited distinct distributions relative to temperature-defined positions in the effluent channel and vertical position in the upper 1 mm-thick mat layer. Importantly, in most cases variants predicted to belong to the same PE formed unique clusters relative to temperature and depth in the mat in canonical correspondence analysis, supporting the hypothesis that while the PEs are ecologically distinct, the members of each ecotype are ecologically homogeneous. PEs responded differently to experimental perturbations of temperature and light, but the genetic variation within each PE was maintained as the relative abundances of PEs changed, further indicating that each population responded as a set of ecologically interchangeable individuals. Compared to PEs that predominate deeper within the mat photic zone, the timing of transcript abundances for selected genes differed for PEs that predominate in microenvironments closer to upper surface of the mat with spatiotemporal differences in light and O2 concentration. All of these findings are consistent with the hypotheses that Synechococcus species in hot spring mats are sets of ecologically interchangeable individuals that are differently adapted, that these adaptations control their distributions, and that the resulting distributions constrain the activities of the species in space and time. PMID:26157420

Use of direct gradient analysis to uncover biological hypotheses in 16s survey data and beyond.

PubMed

Erb-Downward, John R; Sadighi Akha, Amir A; Wang, Juan; Shen, Ning; He, Bei; Martinez, Fernando J; Gyetko, Margaret R; Curtis, Jeffrey L; Huffnagle, Gary B

2012-01-01

This study investigated the use of direct gradient analysis of bacterial 16S pyrosequencing surveys to identify relevant bacterial community signals in the midst of a "noisy" background, and to facilitate hypothesis-testing both within and beyond the realm of ecological surveys. The results, utilizing 3 different real world data sets, demonstrate the utility of adding direct gradient analysis to any analysis that draws conclusions from indirect methods such as Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Principal Coordinates Analysis (PCoA). Direct gradient analysis produces testable models, and can identify significant patterns in the midst of noisy data. Additionally, we demonstrate that direct gradient analysis can be used with other kinds of multivariate data sets, such as flow cytometric data, to identify differentially expressed populations. The results of this study demonstrate the utility of direct gradient analysis in microbial ecology and in other areas of research where large multivariate data sets are involved.

Development of conceptual ecological models linking management of the Missouri River to pallid sturgeon population dynamics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jacobson, Robert B.; Parsley, Michael J.; Annis, Mandy L.; Colvin, Michael E.; Welker, Timothy L.; James, Daniel A.

2015-01-01

This report documents the process of developing and refining conceptual ecological models (CEMs) for linking river management to pallid sturgeon (Scaphirhynchus albus) population dynamics in the Missouri River. The refined CEMs are being used in the Missouri River Pallid Sturgeon Effects Analysis to organize, document, and formalize an understanding of pallid sturgeon population responses to past and future management alternatives. The general form of the CEMs, represented by a population-level model and component life-stage models, was determined in workshops held in the summer of 2013. Subsequently, the Missouri River Pallid Sturgeon Effects Analysis team designed a general hierarchical structure for the component models, refined the graphical structure, and reconciled variation among the components and between models developed for the upper river (Upper Missouri & Yellowstone Rivers) and the lower river (Missouri River downstream from Gavins Point Dam). Importance scores attributed to the relations between primary biotic characteristics and survival were used to define a candidate set of working dominant hypotheses about pallid sturgeon population dynamics. These CEMs are intended to guide research and adaptive-management actions to benefit pallid sturgeon populations in the Missouri River.

Measures of precision for dissimilarity-based multivariate analysis of ecological communities.

PubMed

Anderson, Marti J; Santana-Garcon, Julia

2015-01-01

Ecological studies require key decisions regarding the appropriate size and number of sampling units. No methods currently exist to measure precision for multivariate assemblage data when dissimilarity-based analyses are intended to follow. Here, we propose a pseudo multivariate dissimilarity-based standard error (MultSE) as a useful quantity for assessing sample-size adequacy in studies of ecological communities. Based on sums of squared dissimilarities, MultSE measures variability in the position of the centroid in the space of a chosen dissimilarity measure under repeated sampling for a given sample size. We describe a novel double resampling method to quantify uncertainty in MultSE values with increasing sample size. For more complex designs, values of MultSE can be calculated from the pseudo residual mean square of a permanova model, with the double resampling done within appropriate cells in the design. R code functions for implementing these techniques, along with ecological examples, are provided. © 2014 The Authors. Ecology Letters published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd and CNRS.

Bayesian Spatiotemporal Analysis of Socio-Ecologic Drivers of Ross River Virus Transmission in Queensland, Australia

PubMed Central

Hu, Wenbiao; Clements, Archie; Williams, Gail; Tong, Shilu; Mengersen, Kerrie

2010-01-01

This study aims to examine the impact of socio-ecologic factors on the transmission of Ross River virus (RRV) infection and to identify areas prone to social and ecologic-driven epidemics in Queensland, Australia. We used a Bayesian spatiotemporal conditional autoregressive model to quantify the relationship between monthly variation of RRV incidence and socio-ecologic factors and to determine spatiotemporal patterns. Our results show that the average increase in monthly RRV incidence was 2.4% (95% credible interval (CrI): 0.1–4.5%) and 2.0% (95% CrI: 1.6–2.3%) for a 1°C increase in monthly average maximum temperature and a 10 mm increase in monthly average rainfall, respectively. A significant spatiotemporal variation and interactive effect between temperature and rainfall on RRV incidence were found. No association between Socio-economic Index for Areas (SEIFA) and RRV was observed. The transmission of RRV in Queensland, Australia appeared to be primarily driven by ecologic variables rather than social factors. PMID:20810846

A Path Analysis of a Randomized "Promotora de Salud" Cardiovascular Disease-Prevention Trial among At-Risk Hispanic Adults

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

de Heer, Hendrik Dirk; Balcazar, Hector G.; Castro, Felipe; Schulz, Leslie

2012-01-01

This study assessed effectiveness of an educational community intervention taught by "promotoras de salud" in reducing cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk among Hispanics using a structural equation modeling (SEM) approach. Model development was guided by a social ecological framework proposing CVD risk reduction through improvement of…

Uncertainty analysis in ecological studies: an overview

Treesearch

Harbin Li; Jianguo Wu

2006-01-01

Large-scale simulation models are essential tools for scientific research and environmental decision-making because they can be used to synthesize knowledge, predict consequences of potential scenarios, and develop optimal solutions (Clark et al. 2001, Berk et al. 2002, Katz 2002). Modeling is often the only means of addressing complex environmental problems that occur...

Estimation of potential impacts and natural resource damages of oil.

PubMed

McCay, Deborah French; Rowe, Jill Jennings; Whittier, Nicole; Sankaranarayanan, Sankar; Etkin, Dagmar Schmidt

2004-02-27

Methods were developed to estimate the potential impacts and natural resource damages resulting from oil spills using probabilistic modeling techniques. The oil fates model uses wind data, current data, and transport and weathering algorithms to calculate mass balance of fuel components in various environmental compartments (water surface, shoreline, water column, atmosphere, sediments, etc.), oil pathway over time (trajectory), surface distribution, shoreline oiling, and concentrations of the fuel components in water and sediments. Exposure of aquatic habitats and organisms to whole oil and toxic components is estimated in the biological model, followed by estimation of resulting acute mortality and ecological losses. Natural resource damages are based on estimated costs to restore equivalent resources and/or ecological services, using Habitat Equivalency Analysis (HEA) and Resource Equivalency Analysis (REA) methods. Oil spill modeling was performed for two spill sites in central San Francisco Bay, three spill sizes (20th, 50th, and 95th percentile volumes from tankers and larger freight vessels, based on an analysis of likely spill volumes given a spill has occurred) and four oil types (gasoline, diesel, heavy fuel oil, and crude oil). The scenarios were run in stochastic mode to determine the frequency distribution, mean and standard deviation of fates, impacts, and damages. This work is significant as it demonstrates a statistically quantifiable method for estimating potential impacts and financial consequences that may be used in ecological risk assessment and cost-benefit analyses. The statistically-defined spill volumes and consequences provide an objective measure of the magnitude, range and variability of impacts to wildlife, aquatic organisms and shorelines for potential spills of four oil/fuel types, each having distinct environmental fates and effects.

Looking Past Primary Productivity: Benchmarking System Processes that Drive Ecosystem Level Responses in Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cowdery, E.; Dietze, M.

2017-12-01

As atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide levels continue to increase, it is critical that terrestrial ecosystem models can accurately predict ecological responses to the changing environment. Current predictions of net primary productivity (NPP) in response to elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration are highly variable and contain a considerable amount of uncertainty. Benchmarking model predictions against data are necessary to assess their ability to replicate observed patterns, but also to identify and evaluate the assumptions causing inter-model differences. We have implemented a novel benchmarking workflow as part of the Predictive Ecosystem Analyzer (PEcAn) that is automated, repeatable, and generalized to incorporate different sites and ecological models. Building on the recent Free-Air CO2 Enrichment Model Data Synthesis (FACE-MDS) project, we used observational data from the FACE experiments to test this flexible, extensible benchmarking approach aimed at providing repeatable tests of model process representation that can be performed quickly and frequently. Model performance assessments are often limited to traditional residual error analysis; however, this can result in a loss of critical information. Models that fail tests of relative measures of fit may still perform well under measures of absolute fit and mathematical similarity. This implies that models that are discounted as poor predictors of ecological productivity may still be capturing important patterns. Conversely, models that have been found to be good predictors of productivity may be hiding error in their sub-process that result in the right answers for the wrong reasons. Our suite of tests have not only highlighted process based sources of uncertainty in model productivity calculations, they have also quantified the patterns and scale of this error. Combining these findings with PEcAn's model sensitivity analysis and variance decomposition strengthen our ability to identify which processes need further study and additional data constraints. This can be used to inform future experimental design and in turn can provide an informative starting point for data assimilation.

Analytically tractable model for community ecology with many species

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dickens, Benjamin; Fisher, Charles K.; Mehta, Pankaj

2016-08-01

A fundamental problem in community ecology is understanding how ecological processes such as selection, drift, and immigration give rise to observed patterns in species composition and diversity. Here, we analyze a recently introduced, analytically tractable, presence-absence (PA) model for community assembly, and we use it to ask how ecological traits such as the strength of competition, the amount of diversity, and demographic and environmental stochasticity affect species composition in a community. In the PA model, species are treated as stochastic binary variables that can either be present or absent in a community: species can immigrate into the community from a regional species pool and can go extinct due to competition and stochasticity. Building upon previous work, we show that, despite its simplicity, the PA model reproduces the qualitative features of more complicated models of community assembly. In agreement with recent studies of large, competitive Lotka-Volterra systems, the PA model exhibits distinct ecological behaviors organized around a special ("critical") point corresponding to Hubbell's neutral theory of biodiversity. These results suggest that the concepts of ecological "phases" and phase diagrams can provide a powerful framework for thinking about community ecology, and that the PA model captures the essential ecological dynamics of community assembly.

Should I use that model? Assessing the transferability of ecological models to new settings

EPA Science Inventory

Analysts and scientists frequently apply existing models that estimate ecological endpoints or simulate ecological processes to settings where the models have not been used previously, and where data to parameterize and validate the model may be sparse. Prior to transferring an ...

A new quantitative model of ecological compensation based on ecosystem capital in Zhejiang Province, China*

PubMed Central

Jin, Yan; Huang, Jing-feng; Peng, Dai-liang

2009-01-01

Ecological compensation is becoming one of key and multidiscipline issues in the field of resources and environmental management. Considering the change relation between gross domestic product (GDP) and ecological capital (EC) based on remote sensing estimation, we construct a new quantitative estimate model for ecological compensation, using county as study unit, and determine standard value so as to evaluate ecological compensation from 2001 to 2004 in Zhejiang Province, China. Spatial differences of the ecological compensation were significant among all the counties or districts. This model fills up the gap in the field of quantitative evaluation of regional ecological compensation and provides a feasible way to reconcile the conflicts among benefits in the economic, social, and ecological sectors. PMID:19353749

A new quantitative model of ecological compensation based on ecosystem capital in Zhejiang Province, China.

PubMed

Jin, Yan; Huang, Jing-feng; Peng, Dai-liang

2009-04-01

Ecological compensation is becoming one of key and multidiscipline issues in the field of resources and environmental management. Considering the change relation between gross domestic product (GDP) and ecological capital (EC) based on remote sensing estimation, we construct a new quantitative estimate model for ecological compensation, using county as study unit, and determine standard value so as to evaluate ecological compensation from 2001 to 2004 in Zhejiang Province, China. Spatial differences of the ecological compensation were significant among all the counties or districts. This model fills up the gap in the field of quantitative evaluation of regional ecological compensation and provides a feasible way to reconcile the conflicts among benefits in the economic, social, and ecological sectors.

Behavior Analysis and Ecological Psychology: Past, Present, and Future. A Review of Harry Heft's Ecological Psychology in Context

PubMed Central

Morris, Edward K

2009-01-01

Relations between behavior analysis and ecological psychology have been strained for years, notwithstanding the occasional comment on their affinities. Harry Heft's (2001) Ecological Psychology in Context provides an occasion for reviewing anew those relations and affinities. It describes the genesis of ecological psychology in James's radical empiricism; addresses Holt's neorealism and Gestalt psychology; and synthesizes Gibson's ecological psychology and Barker's ecobehavioral science as a means for understanding everyday human behavior. Although behavior analysis is excluded from this account, Heft's book warrants a review nonetheless: It describes ecological psychology in ways that are congruent and complementary with behavior analysis (e.g., nonmediational theorizing; the provinces of natural history and natural science). After introducing modern ecological psychology, I comment on (a) Heft's admirable, albeit selective, historiography; (b) his ecological psychology—past and present—as it relates to Skinner's science and system (e.g., affordances, molar behavior); (c) his misunderstandings of Skinner's behaviorism (e.g., reductionistic, mechanistic, molecular); and (d) the theoretical status of Heft's cognitive terms and talk (i.e., in ontology, epistemology, syntax). I conclude by considering the alliance and integration of ecological psychology and behavior analysis, and their implications for unifying and transforming psychology as a life science, albeit more for the future than at present. PMID:20354604

Conflict or coordination? Assessing land use multi-functionalization using production-living-ecology analysis.

PubMed

Zhou, De; Xu, Jianchun; Lin, Zhulu

2017-01-15

Land use multi-functionalization (LUMF) promotes efficient and sustainable land use, reduces land pressures from limited land resources, and elevates urbanization quality in the midst of the increasingly tense relationship between humans and nature. In this study, we propose a new conceptual index system using system science, entropy weight method, triangle model, and coupling coordination degree model for LUMF assessment as well as an analysis of the relationship among land use sub-functions. This framework was applied to six cities in the urban agglomeration around Hangzhou Bay (UAHB) in eastern China's Zhejiang Province using twenty-two indicators in terms of production-living-ecology analysis during 2004-2013. The UAHB LUMF level increased over the past ten years, being affected by the designated functions and the "planning effect" for the six cities in the UAHB. The relationships among land use sub-functions in the six cities displayed strong variabilities at the spatial and temporal scales. The overall patterns of the relative importance of these sub-functions also differed from each other. Our research also shows that urban development in the UAHB had focused more on economic growth than on ecological protection and the regional development in the UAHB's six cities was unbalanced. Therefore, we suggest urban and land use management need to embrace more integrated planning and design in order to maintain efficient and sustainable land use. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Thermal Infrared Remote Sensing for Analysis of Landscape Ecological Processes: Methods and Applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Quattrochi, Dale A.; Luvall, Jeffrey C.

1998-01-01

Thermal Infrared (TIR) remote sensing data can provide important measurements of surface energy fluxes and temperatures, which are integral to understanding landscape processes and responses. One example of this is the successful application of TIR remote sensing data to estimate evapotranspiration and soil moisture, where results from a number of studies suggest that satellite-based measurements from TIR remote sensing data can lead to more accurate regional-scale estimates of daily evapotranspiration. With further refinement in analytical techniques and models, the use of TIR data from airborne and satellite sensors could be very useful for parameterizing surface moisture conditions and developing better simulations of landscape energy exchange over a variety of conditions and space and time scales. Thus, TIR remote sensing data can significantly contribute to the observation, measurement, and analysis of energy balance characteristics (i.e., the fluxes and redistribution of thermal energy within and across the land surface) as an implicit and important aspect of landscape dynamics and landscape functioning. The application of TIR remote sensing data in landscape ecological studies has been limited, however, for several fundamental reasons that relate primarily to the perceived difficulty in use and availability of these data by the landscape ecology community, and from the fragmentation of references on TIR remote sensing throughout the scientific literature. It is our purpose here to provide evidence from work that has employed TIR remote sensing for analysis of landscape characteristics to illustrate how these data can provide important data for the improved measurement of landscape energy response and energy flux relationships. We examine the direct or indirect use of TIR remote sensing data to analyze landscape biophysical characteristics, thereby offering some insight on how these data can be used more robustly to further the understanding and modeling of landscape ecological processes.

Ecosocial consequences and policy implications of disease management in East African agropastoral systems.

PubMed

Gutierrez, Andrew Paul; Gilioli, Gianni; Baumgärtner, Johann

2009-08-04

International research and development efforts in Africa have brought ecological and social change, but analyzing the consequences of this change and developing policy to manage it for sustainable development has been difficult. This has been largely due to a lack of conceptual and analytical models to access the interacting dynamics of the different components of ecosocial systems. Here, we examine the ecological and social changes resulting from an ongoing suppression of trypanosomiasis disease in cattle in an agropastoral community in southwest Ethiopia to illustrate how such problems may be addressed. The analysis combines physiologically based demographic models of pasture, cattle, and pastoralists and a bioeconomic model that includes the demographic models as dynamic constraints in the economic objective function that maximizes the utility of individual consumption under different level of disease risk in cattle. Field data and model analysis show that suppression of trypanosomiasis leads to increased cattle and human populations and to increased agricultural development. However, in the absence of sound management, these changes will lead to a decline in pasture quality and increase the risk from tick-borne diseases in cattle and malaria in humans that would threaten system sustainability and resilience. The analysis of these conflicting outcomes of trypanosomiasis suppression is used to illustrate the need for and utility of conceptual bioeconomic models to serve as a basis for developing policy for sustainable agropastoral resource management in sub-Saharan Africa.

Study of a tri-trophic prey-dependent food chain model of interacting populations.

PubMed

Haque, Mainul; Ali, Nijamuddin; Chakravarty, Santabrata

2013-11-01

The current paper accounts for the influence of intra-specific competition among predators in a prey dependent tri-trophic food chain model of interacting populations. We offer a detailed mathematical analysis of the proposed food chain model to illustrate some of the significant results that has arisen from the interplay of deterministic ecological phenomena and processes. Biologically feasible equilibria of the system are observed and the behaviours of the system around each of them are described. In particular, persistence, stability (local and global) and bifurcation (saddle-node, transcritical, Hopf-Andronov) analysis of this model are obtained. Relevant results from previous well known food chain models are compared with the current findings. Global stability analysis is also carried out by constructing appropriate Lyapunov functions. Numerical simulations show that the present system is capable enough to produce chaotic dynamics when the rate of self-interaction is very low. On the other hand such chaotic behaviour disappears for a certain value of the rate of self interaction. In addition, numerical simulations with experimented parameters values confirm the analytical results and shows that intra-specific competitions bears a potential role in controlling the chaotic dynamics of the system; and thus the role of self interactions in food chain model is illustrated first time. Finally, a discussion of the ecological applications of the analytical and numerical findings concludes the paper. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Making ecological models adequate

USGS Publications Warehouse

Getz, Wayne M.; Marshall, Charles R.; Carlson, Colin J.; Giuggioli, Luca; Ryan, Sadie J.; Romañach, Stephanie; Boettiger, Carl; Chamberlain, Samuel D.; Larsen, Laurel; D'Odorico, Paolo; O'Sullivan, David

2018-01-01

Critical evaluation of the adequacy of ecological models is urgently needed to enhance their utility in developing theory and enabling environmental managers and policymakers to make informed decisions. Poorly supported management can have detrimental, costly or irreversible impacts on the environment and society. Here, we examine common issues in ecological modelling and suggest criteria for improving modelling frameworks. An appropriate level of process description is crucial to constructing the best possible model, given the available data and understanding of ecological structures. Model details unsupported by data typically lead to over parameterisation and poor model performance. Conversely, a lack of mechanistic details may limit a model's ability to predict ecological systems’ responses to management. Ecological studies that employ models should follow a set of model adequacy assessment protocols that include: asking a series of critical questions regarding state and control variable selection, the determinacy of data, and the sensitivity and validity of analyses. We also need to improve model elaboration, refinement and coarse graining procedures to better understand the relevancy and adequacy of our models and the role they play in advancing theory, improving hind and forecasting, and enabling problem solving and management.

Health risk assessment of heavy metals in fish and accumulation patterns in food web in the upper Yangtze River, China.

PubMed

Yi, Yujun; Tang, Caihong; Yi, Tieci; Yang, Zhifeng; Zhang, Shanghong

2017-11-01

This study aims to concern the distribution of As, Cr, Cd, Hg, Cu, Zn, Pb and Fe in surface sediment, zoobenthos and fishes, and quantify the accumulative ecological risk and human health risk of metals in river ecological system based on the field investigation in the upper Yangtze River. The results revealed high ecological risk of As, Cd, Cu, Hg, Zn and Pb in sediment. As and Cd in fish presented potential human health risk of metals by assessing integrated target hazard quotient results based on average and maximum concentrations, respectively. No detrimental health effects of heavy metals on humans were found by daily fish consumption. While, the total target hazard quotient (1.659) exceeding 1, it meant that the exposed population might experience noncarcinogenic health risks from the accumulative effect of metals. Ecological network analysis model was established to identify the transfer routes and quantify accumulative effects of metals on river ecosystem. Control analysis between compartments showed large predator fish firstly depended on the omnivorous fish. Accumulative ecological risk of metals indicated that zoobenthos had the largest metal propagation risk and compartments located at higher trophic levels were not easier affected by the external environment pollution. A potential accumulative ecological risk of heavy metal in the food web was quantified, and the noncarcinogenic health risk of fish consumption was revealed for the upper reach of the Yangtze River. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Ecological niche partitioning between Anopheles gambiae molecular forms in Cameroon: the ecological side of speciation

PubMed Central

Simard, Frédéric; Ayala, Diego; Kamdem, Guy Colince; Pombi, Marco; Etouna, Joachim; Ose, Kenji; Fotsing, Jean-Marie; Fontenille, Didier; Besansky, Nora J; Costantini, Carlo

2009-01-01

Background Speciation among members of the Anopheles gambiae complex is thought to be promoted by disruptive selection and ecological divergence acting on sets of adaptation genes protected from recombination by polymorphic paracentric chromosomal inversions. However, shared chromosomal polymorphisms between the M and S molecular forms of An. gambiae and insufficient information about their relationship with ecological divergence challenge this view. We used Geographic Information Systems, Ecological Niche Factor Analysis, and Bayesian multilocus genetic clustering to explore the nature and extent of ecological and chromosomal differentiation of M and S across all the biogeographic domains of Cameroon in Central Africa, in order to understand the role of chromosomal arrangements in ecological specialisation within and among molecular forms. Results Species distribution modelling with presence-only data revealed differences in the ecological niche of both molecular forms and the sibling species, An. arabiensis. The fundamental environmental envelope of the two molecular forms, however, overlapped to a large extent in the rainforest, where they occurred in sympatry. The S form had the greatest niche breadth of all three taxa, whereas An. arabiensis and the M form had the smallest niche overlap. Correspondence analysis of M and S karyotypes confirmed that molecular forms shared similar combinations of chromosomal inversion arrangements in response to the eco-climatic gradient defining the main biogeographic domains occurring across Cameroon. Savanna karyotypes of M and S, however, segregated along the smaller-scale environmental gradient defined by the second ordination axis. Population structure analysis identified three chromosomal clusters, each containing a mixture of M and S specimens. In both M and S, alternative karyotypes were segregating in contrasted environments, in agreement with a strong ecological adaptive value of chromosomal inversions. Conclusion Our data suggest that inversions on the second chromosome of An. gambiae are not causal to the evolution of reproductive isolation between the M and S forms. Rather, they are involved in ecological specialization to a similar extent in both genetic backgrounds, and most probably predated lineage splitting between molecular forms. However, because chromosome-2 inversions promote ecological divergence, resulting in spatial and/or temporal isolation between ecotypes, they might favour mutations in other ecologically significant genes to accumulate in unlinked chromosomal regions. When such mutations occur in portions of the genome where recombination is suppressed, such as the pericentromeric regions known as speciation islands in An. gambiae, they would contribute further to the development of reproductive isolation. PMID:19460146

[Ecological security early-warning in Zhoushan Islands based on variable weight model].

PubMed

Zhou, Bin; Zhong, Lin-sheng; Chen, Tian; Zhou, Rui

2015-06-01

Ecological security early warning, as an important content of ecological security research, is of indicating significance in maintaining regional ecological security. Based on driving force, pressure, state, impact and response (D-P-S-I-R) framework model, this paper took Zhoushan Islands in Zhejiang Province as an example to construct the ecological security early warning index system, test degrees of ecological security early warning of Zhoushan Islands from 2000 to 2012 by using the method of variable weight model, and forecast ecological security state of 2013-2018 by Markov prediction method. The results showed that the variable weight model could meet the study needs of ecological security early warning of Zhoushan Islands. There was a fluctuant rising ecological security early warning index from 0.286 to 0.484 in Zhoushan Islands between year 2000 and 2012, in which the security grade turned from "serious alert" into " medium alert" and the indicator light turned from "orange" to "yellow". The degree of ecological security warning was "medium alert" with the light of "yellow" for Zhoushan Islands from 2013 to 2018. These findings could provide a reference for ecological security maintenance of Zhoushan Islands.

[Calculation model of urban water resources ecological footprint and its application: a case study in Shenyang City of Northeast China].

PubMed

Wang, Jian; Zhang, Chao-Xing; Yu, Ying-Tan; Li, Fa-Yun; Ma, Fang

2012-08-01

Water resources ecological footprint can directly reflect the pressure of human social and economic activities to water resources, and provide important reference for the rational utilization of water resources. Based on the existing ecological footprint models and giving full consideration of the water resources need of urban ecological system, this paper established a new calculation model of urban water resources ecological footprint, including domestic water account, process water account, public service water account, and ecological water requirement account. According to the actual situation of Shenyang City, the key parameters of the model were determined, and the water resources ecological footprint and ecological carrying capacity of the City were calculated and analyzed. From 2000 to 2009, the water resources ecological footprint per capita of the City presented an overall decreasing trend, but still had an annual ecological deficit. As compared to that in 2000, the water resources ecological footprint per capita was decreased to 0.31 hm2 in 2005, increased slightly in 2006 and 2007, and remained stable in 2008 and 2009, which suggested that the sustainable utilization of water resources in Shenyang City had definite improvement, but was still in an unsustainable development situation.

A Conceptual Framework for Evaluating the Domains of Applicability of Ecological Models and its Implementation in the Ecological Production Function Library

EPA Science Inventory

The use of computational ecological models to inform environmental management and policy has proliferated in the past 25 years. These models have become essential tools as linkages and feedbacks between human actions and ecological responses can be complex, and as funds for sampl...

Climate Change Vulnerability of Agro-Ecosystems: Does socio-economic factors matters?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Surendran Nair, S.; Preston, B. L.; King, A. W.; Mei, R.; Post, W. M.

2013-12-01

Climate variability and change has direct impacts on agriculture. Despite continual adaptation to climate as well as gains in technology innovation and adoption, agriculture is still vulnerable to changes in temperature and precipitation expected in coming decades. Generally, researchers use two major methodologies to understand the vulnerability of agro-ecosystems to climate change: process-based crop models and empirical models. However, these models are not yet designed to capture the influence of socioeconomic systems on agro-ecosystem processes and outcomes.. However, socioeconomic processes are an important factor driving agro-ecological responses to biophysical processes (climate, topography and soil), because of the role of human agency in mediating the response of agro-ecosystems to climate. We have developed a framework that integrates socioeconomic and biophysical characteristics of agro-ecosystems using cluster analysis and GIS tools. This framework has been applied to the U.S. Southeast to define unique socio-ecological domains for agriculture. The results demonstrate that socioeconomic characteristics are an important factor influencing agriculture production. These results suggest that the lack of attention to socioeconomic conditions and human agency in agro-ecological modeling creates a potential bias with respect to the representation of climate change impacts.

Policy Analysis: Valuation of Ecosystem Services in the Southern Appalachian Mountains.

PubMed

Banzhaf, H Spencer; Burtraw, Dallas; Criscimagna, Susie Chung; Cosby, Bernard J; Evans, David A; Krupnick, Alan J; Siikamäki, Juha V

2016-03-15

This study estimates the economic value of an increase in ecosystem services attributable to the reduced acidification expected from more stringent air pollution policy. By integrating a detailed biogeochemical model that projects future ecological recovery with economic methods that measure preferences for specific ecological improvements, we estimate the economic value of ecological benefits from new air pollution policies in the Southern Appalachian ecosystem. Our results indicate that these policies generate aggregate benefits of about $3.7 billion, or about $16 per year per household in the region. The study provides currently missing information about the ecological benefits from air pollution policies that is needed to evaluate such policies comprehensively. More broadly, the study also illustrates how integrated biogeochemical and economic assessments of multidimensional ecosystems can evaluate the relative benefits of different policy options that vary by scale and across ecosystem attributes.

Study on Ecological Risk Assessment of Guangxi Coastal Zone Based on 3s Technology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhong, Z.; Luo, H.; Ling, Z. Y.; Huang, Y.; Ning, W. Y.; Tang, Y. B.; Shao, G. Z.

2018-05-01

This paper takes Guangxi coastal zone as the study area, following the standards of land use type, divides the coastal zone of ecological landscape into seven kinds of natural wetland landscape types such as woodland, farmland, grassland, water, urban land and wetlands. Using TM data of 2000-2015 such 15 years, with the CART decision tree algorithm, for analysis the characteristic of types of landscape's remote sensing image and build decision tree rules of landscape classification to extract information classification. Analyzing of the evolution process of the landscape pattern in Guangxi coastal zone in nearly 15 years, we may understand the distribution characteristics and change rules. Combined with the natural disaster data, we use of landscape index and the related risk interference degree and construct ecological risk evaluation model in Guangxi coastal zone for ecological risk assessment results of Guangxi coastal zone.

Measures of precision for dissimilarity-based multivariate analysis of ecological communities

PubMed Central

Anderson, Marti J; Santana-Garcon, Julia

2015-01-01

Ecological studies require key decisions regarding the appropriate size and number of sampling units. No methods currently exist to measure precision for multivariate assemblage data when dissimilarity-based analyses are intended to follow. Here, we propose a pseudo multivariate dissimilarity-based standard error (MultSE) as a useful quantity for assessing sample-size adequacy in studies of ecological communities. Based on sums of squared dissimilarities, MultSE measures variability in the position of the centroid in the space of a chosen dissimilarity measure under repeated sampling for a given sample size. We describe a novel double resampling method to quantify uncertainty in MultSE values with increasing sample size. For more complex designs, values of MultSE can be calculated from the pseudo residual mean square of a permanova model, with the double resampling done within appropriate cells in the design. R code functions for implementing these techniques, along with ecological examples, are provided. PMID:25438826

The cumulative effects assessment of a coastal ecological restoration project in China: An integrated perspective.

PubMed

Ma, Deqiang; Zhang, Liyu; Fang, Qinhua; Jiang, Yuwu; Elliott, Michael

2017-05-15

Large scale coastal land-claim and sea-enclosing (CLASE) activities have caused habitat destruction, biodiversity losses and water deterioration, thus the local governments in China have recently undertaken seabed dredging and dyke opening (SDADO) as typical ecological restoration projects. However, some projects focus on a single impact on hydrodynamic conditions, water quality or marine organisms. In a case study in Xiamen, China, an integrated effects assessment framework centres on ecohydrology, using modeling of hydrodynamic conditions and statistical analysis of water quality, was developed to assess the effects of ecological restoration projects. The benefits of SDADO projects include improving hydrodynamic conditions and water quality, as a precursor to further marine biological improvements. This study highlights the need to comprehensively consider ecological effects of SDADO projects in the planning stage, and an integrative assessment method combining cumulative effects of hydrodynamic conditions, water quality and biological factors. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Socio-Ecological Risk Factors for Prime-Age Adult Death in Two Coastal Areas of Vietnam

PubMed Central

Kim, Deok Ryun; Ali, Mohammad; Thiem, Vu Dinh; Wierzba, Thomas F.

2014-01-01

Background Hierarchical spatial models enable the geographic and ecological analysis of health data thereby providing useful information for designing effective health interventions. In this study, we used a Bayesian hierarchical spatial model to evaluate mortality data in Vietnam. The model enabled identification of socio-ecological risk factors and generation of risk maps to better understand the causes and geographic implications of prime-age (15 to less than 45 years) adult death. Methods and Findings The study was conducted in two sites: Nha Trang and Hue in Vietnam. The study areas were split into 500×500 meter cells to define neighborhoods. We first extracted socio-demographic data from population databases of the two sites, and then aggregated the data by neighborhood. We used spatial hierarchical model that borrows strength from neighbors for evaluating risk factors and for creating spatially smoothed risk map after adjusting for neighborhood level covariates. The Markov chain Monte Carlo procedure was used to estimate the parameters. Male mortality was more than twice the female mortality. The rates also varied by age and sex. The most frequent cause of mortality was traffic accidents and drowning for men and traffic accidents and suicide for women. Lower education of household heads in the neighborhood was an important risk factor for increased mortality. The mortality was highly variable in space and the socio-ecological risk factors are sensitive to study site and sex. Conclusion Our study suggests that lower education of the household head is an important predictor for prime age adult mortality. Variability in socio-ecological risk factors and in risk areas by sex make it challenging to design appropriate intervention strategies aimed at decreasing prime-age adult deaths in Vietnam. PMID:24587031

Socio-ecological risk factors for prime-age adult death in two coastal areas of Vietnam.

PubMed

Kim, Deok Ryun; Ali, Mohammad; Thiem, Vu Dinh; Wierzba, Thomas F

2014-01-01

Hierarchical spatial models enable the geographic and ecological analysis of health data thereby providing useful information for designing effective health interventions. In this study, we used a Bayesian hierarchical spatial model to evaluate mortality data in Vietnam. The model enabled identification of socio-ecological risk factors and generation of risk maps to better understand the causes and geographic implications of prime-age (15 to less than 45 years) adult death. The study was conducted in two sites: Nha Trang and Hue in Vietnam. The study areas were split into 500×500 meter cells to define neighborhoods. We first extracted socio-demographic data from population databases of the two sites, and then aggregated the data by neighborhood. We used spatial hierarchical model that borrows strength from neighbors for evaluating risk factors and for creating spatially smoothed risk map after adjusting for neighborhood level covariates. The Markov chain Monte Carlo procedure was used to estimate the parameters. Male mortality was more than twice the female mortality. The rates also varied by age and sex. The most frequent cause of mortality was traffic accidents and drowning for men and traffic accidents and suicide for women. Lower education of household heads in the neighborhood was an important risk factor for increased mortality. The mortality was highly variable in space and the socio-ecological risk factors are sensitive to study site and sex. Our study suggests that lower education of the household head is an important predictor for prime age adult mortality. Variability in socio-ecological risk factors and in risk areas by sex make it challenging to design appropriate intervention strategies aimed at decreasing prime-age adult deaths in Vietnam.

Designing ecological climate change impact assessments to reflect key climatic drivers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sofaer, Helen R.; Barsugli, Joseph J.; Jarnevich, Catherine S.; Abatzoglou, John T.; Talbert, Marian; Miller, Brian W.; Morisette, Jeffrey T.

2017-01-01

Identifying the climatic drivers of an ecological system is a key step in assessing its vulnerability to climate change. The climatic dimensions to which a species or system is most sensitive – such as means or extremes – can guide methodological decisions for projections of ecological impacts and vulnerabilities. However, scientific workflows for combining climate projections with ecological models have received little explicit attention. We review Global Climate Model (GCM) performance along different dimensions of change and compare frameworks for integrating GCM output into ecological models. In systems sensitive to climatological means, it is straightforward to base ecological impact assessments on mean projected changes from several GCMs. Ecological systems sensitive to climatic extremes may benefit from what we term the ‘model space’ approach: a comparison of ecological projections based on simulated climate from historical and future time periods. This approach leverages the experimental framework used in climate modeling, in which historical climate simulations serve as controls for future projections. Moreover, it can capture projected changes in the intensity and frequency of climatic extremes, rather than assuming that future means will determine future extremes. Given the recent emphasis on the ecological impacts of climatic extremes, the strategies we describe will be applicable across species and systems. We also highlight practical considerations for the selection of climate models and data products, emphasizing that the spatial resolution of the climate change signal is generally coarser than the grid cell size of downscaled climate model output. Our review illustrates how an understanding of how climate model outputs are derived and downscaled can improve the selection and application of climatic data used in ecological modeling.

Designing ecological climate change impact assessments to reflect key climatic drivers.

PubMed

Sofaer, Helen R; Barsugli, Joseph J; Jarnevich, Catherine S; Abatzoglou, John T; Talbert, Marian K; Miller, Brian W; Morisette, Jeffrey T

2017-07-01

Identifying the climatic drivers of an ecological system is a key step in assessing its vulnerability to climate change. The climatic dimensions to which a species or system is most sensitive - such as means or extremes - can guide methodological decisions for projections of ecological impacts and vulnerabilities. However, scientific workflows for combining climate projections with ecological models have received little explicit attention. We review Global Climate Model (GCM) performance along different dimensions of change and compare frameworks for integrating GCM output into ecological models. In systems sensitive to climatological means, it is straightforward to base ecological impact assessments on mean projected changes from several GCMs. Ecological systems sensitive to climatic extremes may benefit from what we term the 'model space' approach: a comparison of ecological projections based on simulated climate from historical and future time periods. This approach leverages the experimental framework used in climate modeling, in which historical climate simulations serve as controls for future projections. Moreover, it can capture projected changes in the intensity and frequency of climatic extremes, rather than assuming that future means will determine future extremes. Given the recent emphasis on the ecological impacts of climatic extremes, the strategies we describe will be applicable across species and systems. We also highlight practical considerations for the selection of climate models and data products, emphasizing that the spatial resolution of the climate change signal is generally coarser than the grid cell size of downscaled climate model output. Our review illustrates how an understanding of how climate model outputs are derived and downscaled can improve the selection and application of climatic data used in ecological modeling. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Multivariate landscape trajectory analysis: An example using simulation modeling of American marten habitat change under four timber harvest scenarios

Treesearch

Samuel A. Cushman; Kevin McGarigal

2007-01-01

Integrating temporal variabilily into spatial analyses is one of the abiding challenges in landscape ecology. In this chapter we use landscape trajectory analysis to assess changes in landscape patterns over time. Landscape trajectory analysis is an approach to quantify changes in landscape structure over time. There are three key concepts which underlie the...

Fish and fire: Post-wildfire sediment dynamics and implications for the viability of trout populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murphy, B. P.; Czuba, J. A.; Belmont, P.; Budy, P.; Finch, C.

2017-12-01

Episodic events in steep landscapes, such as wildfire and mass wasting, contribute large pulses of sediment to rivers and can significantly alter the quality and connectivity of fish habitat. Understanding where these sediment inputs occur, how they are transported and processed through the watershed, and their geomorphic effect on the river network is critical to predicting the impact on ecological aquatic communities. The Tushar Mountains of southern Utah experienced a severe wildfire in 2010, resulting in numerous debris flows and the extirpation of trout populations. Following many years of habitat and ecological monitoring in the field, we have developed a modeling framework that links post-wildfire debris flows, fluvial sediment routing, and population ecology in order to evaluate the impact and response of trout to wildfire. First, using the Tushar topographic and wildfire parameters, as well as stochastic precipitation generation, we predict the post-wildfire debris flow probabilities and volumes of mainstem tributaries using the Cannon et al. [2010] model. This produces episodic hillslope sediment inputs, which are delivered to a fluvial sediment, river-network routing model (modified from Czuba et al. [2017]). In this updated model, sediment transport dynamics are driven by time-varying discharge associated with the stochastic precipitation generation, include multiple grain sizes (including gravel), use mixed-size transport equations (Wilcock & Crowe [2003]), and incorporate channel slope adjustments with aggradation and degradation. Finally, with the spatially explicit adjustments in channel bed elevation and grain size, we utilize a new population viability analysis (PVA) model to predict the impact and recovery of fish populations in response to these changes in habitat. Our model provides a generalizable framework for linking physical and ecological models and for evaluating the extirpation risk of isolated fish populations throughout the Intermountain West to the increasing threat of wildfire.

When mechanism matters: Bayesian forecasting using models of ecological diffusion

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hefley, Trevor J.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Russell, Robin E.; Walsh, Daniel P.; Powell, James A.

2017-01-01

Ecological diffusion is a theory that can be used to understand and forecast spatio-temporal processes such as dispersal, invasion, and the spread of disease. Hierarchical Bayesian modelling provides a framework to make statistical inference and probabilistic forecasts, using mechanistic ecological models. To illustrate, we show how hierarchical Bayesian models of ecological diffusion can be implemented for large data sets that are distributed densely across space and time. The hierarchical Bayesian approach is used to understand and forecast the growth and geographic spread in the prevalence of chronic wasting disease in white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus). We compare statistical inference and forecasts from our hierarchical Bayesian model to phenomenological regression-based methods that are commonly used to analyse spatial occurrence data. The mechanistic statistical model based on ecological diffusion led to important ecological insights, obviated a commonly ignored type of collinearity, and was the most accurate method for forecasting.

Improving the Algae Bloom Prediction through the Assimilation of the Remotely Sensed Chlorophyll-A Data in a Generic Ecological Model in the North Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

El Serafy, Ghada

2010-05-01

Harmful algae can cause damage to co-existing organisms, tourism and farmers. Accurate predictions of algal future composition and abundance as well as when and where algal blooms may occur could help early warning and mitigating. The Generic Ecological Model, GEM, [Blauw et al 2008] is an instrument that can be applied to any water system (fresh, transitional or coastal) to calculate the primary production, chlorophyll-a concentration and phytoplankton species composition. It consists of physical, chemical and ecological model components which are coupled together to build one generic and flexible modeling tool. For the North Sea, the model has been analyzed to assess sensitivity of the simulated chlorophyll-a concentration to a subset of ecologically significant set of factors. The research led to the definition of the most significant set of parameters to the algae blooming process in the North Sea [Salacinska et al 2009]. In order to improve the prediction of the model, the set of parameters and the chlorophyll-a concentration can be further estimated through the use of data assimilation. In this research, the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) data assimilation technique is used to assimilate the chlorophyll-a data of the North Sea, retrieved from MEdium Resolution Imaging Sensor (MERIS) spectrometer data [Peters et al 2005], in the GEM model. The chlorophyll-a data includes concentrations and error information that enable their use in data assimilation. For the same purpose, the uncertainty of the ecological generic model, GEM has been quantified by means of Monte Carlo approach. Through a study covering the year of 2003, the research demonstrates that both data and model are sufficiently robust for a successful assimilation. The results show that through the assimilation of the satellite data, a better description of the algae bloom has been achieved and an improvement of the capability of the model to predict the algae bloom for the North Sea has been confirmed. Blauw A.N., Los F.J., Bokhorst M., Erftemeijer P.L.A., (2009), GEM: a Generic Ecological Model for estuaries and coastal waters. Journal of Hydrobiologia, Volume 618, Number 1, 175-198. Peters, S.W.M., Eleveld, M. Pasterkamp, R., Woerd, H. van der, Devolder, M., Jans, S., Park, Y., Ruddick, K., Block, T., Brockmann, C., Doerffer, R., Krasemann, H., Röttgers, R., Schönfeld, W., Jørgensen, P.V., Tilstone, G., Martinez-Vicente, V., Moore, G., Sørensen, K., Høkedal, J., Johnsen, T.M., Lømsland, E.R., Aas, E. (2005). Atlas of Chlorophyll-a concentration for the North Sea based on MERIS imagery of 2003. IVM report, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, 117 pp. ISBN 90-5192-026-1. Salacinska K., El Serafy G.Y., Blauw A., Los F.J., (2009) Sensitivity analysis of the two dimensional application of the Generic Ecological Model (GEM) to algal bloom prediction in the North Sea, Journal of Ecological Modeling, volume 221, 7, pp 178-190, DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2009.10.001

Random forests for classification in ecology

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cutler, D.R.; Edwards, T.C.; Beard, K.H.; Cutler, A.; Hess, K.T.; Gibson, J.; Lawler, J.J.

2007-01-01

Classification procedures are some of the most widely used statistical methods in ecology. Random forests (RF) is a new and powerful statistical classifier that is well established in other disciplines but is relatively unknown in ecology. Advantages of RF compared to other statistical classifiers include (1) very high classification accuracy; (2) a novel method of determining variable importance; (3) ability to model complex interactions among predictor variables; (4) flexibility to perform several types of statistical data analysis, including regression, classification, survival analysis, and unsupervised learning; and (5) an algorithm for imputing missing values. We compared the accuracies of RF and four other commonly used statistical classifiers using data on invasive plant species presence in Lava Beds National Monument, California, USA, rare lichen species presence in the Pacific Northwest, USA, and nest sites for cavity nesting birds in the Uinta Mountains, Utah, USA. We observed high classification accuracy in all applications as measured by cross-validation and, in the case of the lichen data, by independent test data, when comparing RF to other common classification methods. We also observed that the variables that RF identified as most important for classifying invasive plant species coincided with expectations based on the literature. ?? 2007 by the Ecological Society of America.

EDENetworks: a user-friendly software to build and analyse networks in biogeography, ecology and population genetics.

PubMed

Kivelä, Mikko; Arnaud-Haond, Sophie; Saramäki, Jari

2015-01-01

The recent application of graph-based network theory analysis to biogeography, community ecology and population genetics has created a need for user-friendly software, which would allow a wider accessibility to and adaptation of these methods. EDENetworks aims to fill this void by providing an easy-to-use interface for the whole analysis pipeline of ecological and evolutionary networks starting from matrices of species distributions, genotypes, bacterial OTUs or populations characterized genetically. The user can choose between several different ecological distance metrics, such as Bray-Curtis or Sorensen distance, or population genetic metrics such as FST or Goldstein distances, to turn the raw data into a distance/dissimilarity matrix. This matrix is then transformed into a network by manual or automatic thresholding based on percolation theory or by building the minimum spanning tree. The networks can be visualized along with auxiliary data and analysed with various metrics such as degree, clustering coefficient, assortativity and betweenness centrality. The statistical significance of the results can be estimated either by resampling the original biological data or by null models based on permutations of the data. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

An Applied Ecological Framework for Evaluating Infrastructure to Promote Walking and Cycling: The iConnect Study

PubMed Central

Bull, Fiona; Powell, Jane; Cooper, Ashley R.; Brand, Christian; Mutrie, Nanette; Preston, John; Rutter, Harry

2011-01-01

Improving infrastructure for walking and cycling is increasingly recommended as a means to promote physical activity, prevent obesity, and reduce traffic congestion and carbon emissions. However, limited evidence from intervention studies exists to support this approach. Drawing on classic epidemiological methods, psychological and ecological models of behavior change, and the principles of realistic evaluation, we have developed an applied ecological framework by which current theories about the behavioral effects of environmental change may be tested in heterogeneous and complex intervention settings. Our framework guides study design and analysis by specifying the most important data to be collected and relations to be tested to confirm or refute specific hypotheses and thereby refine the underlying theories. PMID:21233429

Comparative analysis of marine ecosystems: workshop on predator-prey interactions.

PubMed

Bailey, Kevin M; Ciannelli, Lorenzo; Hunsicker, Mary; Rindorf, Anna; Neuenfeldt, Stefan; Möllmann, Christian; Guichard, Frederic; Huse, Geir

2010-10-23

Climate and human influences on marine ecosystems are largely manifested by changes in predator-prey interactions. It follows that ecosystem-based management of the world's oceans requires a better understanding of food web relationships. An international workshop on predator-prey interactions in marine ecosystems was held at the Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR, USA on 16-18 March 2010. The meeting brought together scientists from diverse fields of expertise including theoretical ecology, animal behaviour, fish and seabird ecology, statistics, fisheries science and ecosystem modelling. The goals of the workshop were to critically examine the methods of scaling-up predator-prey interactions from local observations to systems, the role of shifting ecological processes with scale changes, and the complexity and organizational structure in trophic interactions.

The Red Lotus Health Promotion Model: a new model for holistic, ecological, salutogenic health promotion practice.

PubMed

Gregg, Jane; O'Hara, Lily

2007-04-01

There is a need for a system of values and principles consistent with modern health promotion that enables practitioners to use these values and principles to understand health and in their needs assessment, planning, implementation and evaluation practice. Grounded theory, document analysis and the authors' own practice experience were used to systematically collect and analyse data from key health promotion literature and to develop the Red Lotus Health Promotion Model. The Red Lotus Health Promotion Model is a new model for holistic, ecological, salutogenic health promotion practice. It is distinct from other health promotion models in that it incorporates a system of values and principles that is applied across the phases of health promotion, including determining the health paradigm, needs assessment, planning, implementation and evaluation. The Red Lotus Health Promotion Model enables practitioners to proactively and purposefully put into action a connected system of values and principles across the phases of a health promotion process.

Components of spatial information management in wildlife ecology: Software for statistical and modeling analysis [Chapter 14

Treesearch

Hawthorne L. Beyer; Jeff Jenness; Samuel A. Cushman

2010-01-01

Spatial information systems (SIS) is a term that describes a wide diversity of concepts, techniques, and technologies related to the capture, management, display and analysis of spatial information. It encompasses technologies such as geographic information systems (GIS), global positioning systems (GPS), remote sensing, and relational database management systems (...

An empirical model of the Baltic Sea reveals the importance of social dynamics for ecological regime shifts.

PubMed

Lade, Steven J; Niiranen, Susa; Hentati-Sundberg, Jonas; Blenckner, Thorsten; Boonstra, Wiebren J; Orach, Kirill; Quaas, Martin F; Österblom, Henrik; Schlüter, Maja

2015-09-01

Regime shifts triggered by human activities and environmental changes have led to significant ecological and socioeconomic consequences in marine and terrestrial ecosystems worldwide. Ecological processes and feedbacks associated with regime shifts have received considerable attention, but human individual and collective behavior is rarely treated as an integrated component of such shifts. Here, we used generalized modeling to develop a coupled social-ecological model that integrated rich social and ecological data to investigate the role of social dynamics in the 1980s Baltic Sea cod boom and collapse. We showed that psychological, economic, and regulatory aspects of fisher decision making, in addition to ecological interactions, contributed both to the temporary persistence of the cod boom and to its subsequent collapse. These features of the social-ecological system also would have limited the effectiveness of stronger fishery regulations. Our results provide quantitative, empirical evidence that incorporating social dynamics into models of natural resources is critical for understanding how resources can be managed sustainably. We also show that generalized modeling, which is well-suited to collaborative model development and does not require detailed specification of causal relationships between system variables, can help tackle the complexities involved in creating and analyzing social-ecological models.

An empirical model of the Baltic Sea reveals the importance of social dynamics for ecological regime shifts

PubMed Central

Lade, Steven J.; Niiranen, Susa; Hentati-Sundberg, Jonas; Blenckner, Thorsten; Boonstra, Wiebren J.; Orach, Kirill; Quaas, Martin F.; Österblom, Henrik; Schlüter, Maja

2015-01-01

Regime shifts triggered by human activities and environmental changes have led to significant ecological and socioeconomic consequences in marine and terrestrial ecosystems worldwide. Ecological processes and feedbacks associated with regime shifts have received considerable attention, but human individual and collective behavior is rarely treated as an integrated component of such shifts. Here, we used generalized modeling to develop a coupled social–ecological model that integrated rich social and ecological data to investigate the role of social dynamics in the 1980s Baltic Sea cod boom and collapse. We showed that psychological, economic, and regulatory aspects of fisher decision making, in addition to ecological interactions, contributed both to the temporary persistence of the cod boom and to its subsequent collapse. These features of the social–ecological system also would have limited the effectiveness of stronger fishery regulations. Our results provide quantitative, empirical evidence that incorporating social dynamics into models of natural resources is critical for understanding how resources can be managed sustainably. We also show that generalized modeling, which is well-suited to collaborative model development and does not require detailed specification of causal relationships between system variables, can help tackle the complexities involved in creating and analyzing social–ecological models. PMID:26283344

Quantifying the dilution effect for models in ecological epidemiology.

PubMed

Roberts, M G; Heesterbeek, J A P

2018-03-01

The dilution effect , where an increase in biodiversity results in a reduction in the prevalence of an infectious disease, has been the subject of speculation and controversy. Conversely, an amplification effect occurs when increased biodiversity is related to an increase in prevalence. We explore the conditions under which these effects arise, using multi species compartmental models that integrate ecological and epidemiological interactions. We introduce three potential metrics for quantifying dilution and amplification, one based on infection prevalence in a focal host species, one based on the size of the infected subpopulation of that species and one based on the basic reproduction number. We introduce our approach in the simplest epidemiological setting with two species, and show that the existence and strength of a dilution effect is influenced strongly by the choices made to describe the system and the metric used to gauge the effect. We show that our method can be generalized to any number of species and to more complicated ecological and epidemiological dynamics. Our method allows a rigorous analysis of ecological systems where dilution effects have been postulated, and contributes to future progress in understanding the phenomenon of dilution in the context of infectious disease dynamics and infection risk. © 2018 The Author(s).

Family ecological predictors of physical activity parenting in low-income families.

PubMed

Lampard, Amy M; Jurkowski, Janine M; Lawson, Hal A; Davison, Kirsten K

2013-01-01

Physical activity (PA) parenting, or strategies parents use to promote PA in children, has been associated with increased PA in children of all ages, including preschool-aged children. However, little is known about the circumstances under which parents adopt such behaviors. This study examined family ecological factors associated with PA parenting. Low-income parents (N = 145) of preschool-aged children (aged 2 to 5 years) were recruited from five Head Start centers in upstate New York. Guided by the family ecological model (FEM), parents completed surveys assessing PA parenting and relevant family and community factors. Hierarchical regression analysis identified independent predictors of PA parenting. Parent depressive symptoms, life pressures that interfere with PA and perceived empowerment to access PA resources were associated with PA parenting. Community factors, including neighborhood play safety and social capital, were not independently associated with PA parenting in the multivariate model. Together, family ecological factors accounted for a large proportion of the variance in PA parenting (R (2) = .37). Findings highlight the need to look beyond cognitive predictors of PA parenting in low-income families and to examine the impact of their broader life circumstances including indicators of stress.

The basis function approach for modeling autocorrelation in ecological data.

PubMed

Hefley, Trevor J; Broms, Kristin M; Brost, Brian M; Buderman, Frances E; Kay, Shannon L; Scharf, Henry R; Tipton, John R; Williams, Perry J; Hooten, Mevin B

2017-03-01

Analyzing ecological data often requires modeling the autocorrelation created by spatial and temporal processes. Many seemingly disparate statistical methods used to account for autocorrelation can be expressed as regression models that include basis functions. Basis functions also enable ecologists to modify a wide range of existing ecological models in order to account for autocorrelation, which can improve inference and predictive accuracy. Furthermore, understanding the properties of basis functions is essential for evaluating the fit of spatial or time-series models, detecting a hidden form of collinearity, and analyzing large data sets. We present important concepts and properties related to basis functions and illustrate several tools and techniques ecologists can use when modeling autocorrelation in ecological data. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

On the Use of Conversation Analysis and Retrospection in Intervention for Children with Language Impairment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Samuelsson, Christina; Plejert, Charlotta

2015-01-01

Models of speech and language intervention for communicative disabilities vary from structured programmes to more interactive and ecological methods (Fey, 1986). Ideally, a model for intervention should fit the interests and personality of the patient, focus on crucial aspects of speech and language, and be suited to the patient's everyday…

SPATIAL LANDSCAPE INDICES IN A HEDONIC FRAMEWORK: AN ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS ANALYSIS USING GIS. (R825309)

EPA Science Inventory

Abstract

This paper develops a spatial hedonic model to explain residential values in a region within a 30-mile radius of Washington DC. Hedonic models of housing or land values are commonplace, but are rarely estimated for non-urban problems and never using the type o...

SPATIAL LANDSCAPE INDICES IN A HEDONIC FRAMEWORK: AN ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS ANALYSIS USING GIS. (R824766)

EPA Science Inventory

Abstract

This paper develops a spatial hedonic model to explain residential values in a region within a 30-mile radius of Washington DC. Hedonic models of housing or land values are commonplace, but are rarely estimated for non-urban problems and never using the type o...

Effects of temperature on development, survival and reproduction of insects: Experimental design, data analysis and modeling

Treesearch

Jacques Regniere; James Powell; Barbara Bentz; Vincent Nealis

2012-01-01

The developmental response of insects to temperature is important in understanding the ecology of insect life histories. Temperature-dependent phenology models permit examination of the impacts of temperature on the geographical distributions, population dynamics and management of insects. The measurement of insect developmental, survival and reproductive responses to...

Social network models predict movement and connectivity in ecological landscapes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fletcher, R.J.; Acevedo, M.A.; Reichert, Brian E.; Pias, Kyle E.; Kitchens, W.M.

2011-01-01

Network analysis is on the rise across scientific disciplines because of its ability to reveal complex, and often emergent, patterns and dynamics. Nonetheless, a growing concern in network analysis is the use of limited data for constructing networks. This concern is strikingly relevant to ecology and conservation biology, where network analysis is used to infer connectivity across landscapes. In this context, movement among patches is the crucial parameter for interpreting connectivity but because of the difficulty of collecting reliable movement data, most network analysis proceeds with only indirect information on movement across landscapes rather than using observed movement to construct networks. Statistical models developed for social networks provide promising alternatives for landscape network construction because they can leverage limited movement information to predict linkages. Using two mark-recapture datasets on individual movement and connectivity across landscapes, we test whether commonly used network constructions for interpreting connectivity can predict actual linkages and network structure, and we contrast these approaches to social network models. We find that currently applied network constructions for assessing connectivity consistently, and substantially, overpredict actual connectivity, resulting in considerable overestimation of metapopulation lifetime. Furthermore, social network models provide accurate predictions of network structure, and can do so with remarkably limited data on movement. Social network models offer a flexible and powerful way for not only understanding the factors influencing connectivity but also for providing more reliable estimates of connectivity and metapopulation persistence in the face of limited data.

Simulation of a dynamical ecotourism system with low carbon activity: A case from western China.

PubMed

He, Yuan; Huang, Ping; Xu, Hong

2018-01-15

Currently, sustainable tourism is becoming more and more important in developing ecological economies. To achieve low-carbon development, some industries, such as logistics and municipal solid waste, have already taken action, but tourism has not attached sufficient importance to this issue. This paper designs an ecotourism system including tourism, carbon waste (solid waste and sewage), and ecology (water supply and green areas) to simulate low-carbon ecotourism through a quantitative approach. This paper explores the tourism system as well as some interactive factors and studies their quantitative relationship based on historical data. A feedback-loop dynamical system model is designed to simulate tourism, waste carbon, and ecology simultaneously. Finally, a case study applying the feedback-loop dynamical system model to Leshan City, a typical travel destination with colorful natural resources in western China, is conducted to indicate the development of ecotourism in an environmentally friendly economy, which verifies the positive effects of the model. Results show a coordinating upward tendency of tourism, solid waste carbon, and ecology from the dynamical model. When tourism increases, solid waste accumulation increases; however, the amount of sewage dumped directly into nature decreases sharply. After analysis of investment policy scenarios, the research indicates that more funds for sewage treatment will attract more tourists. To maintain the equilibrium of carbon waste, more funds shall be invested in solid waste treatment in the long term. Some discussions about local policy are included. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The gravity of pollination: integrating at-site features into spatial analysis of contemporary pollen movement.

PubMed

DiLeo, Michelle F; Siu, Jenna C; Rhodes, Matthew K; López-Villalobos, Adriana; Redwine, Angela; Ksiazek, Kelly; Dyer, Rodney J

2014-08-01

Pollen-mediated gene flow is a major driver of spatial genetic structure in plant populations. Both individual plant characteristics and site-specific features of the landscape can modify the perceived attractiveness of plants to their pollinators and thus play an important role in shaping spatial genetic variation. Most studies of landscape-level genetic connectivity in plants have focused on the effects of interindividual distance using spatial and increasingly ecological separation, yet have not incorporated individual plant characteristics or other at-site ecological variables. Using spatially explicit simulations, we first tested the extent to which the inclusion of at-site variables influencing local pollination success improved the statistical characterization of genetic connectivity based upon examination of pollen pool genetic structure. The addition of at-site characteristics provided better models than those that only considered interindividual spatial distance (e.g. IBD). Models parameterized using conditional genetic covariance (e.g. population graphs) also outperformed those assuming panmixia. In a natural population of Cornus florida L. (Cornaceae), we showed that the addition of at-site characteristics (clumping of primary canopy opening above each maternal tree and maternal tree floral output) provided significantly better models describing gene flow than models including only between-site spatial (IBD) and ecological (isolation by resistance) variables. Overall, our results show that including interindividual and local ecological variation greatly aids in characterizing landscape-level measures of contemporary gene flow. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Relationship among values, beliefs, norms and ecological behaviour.

PubMed

González López, Antonio; Amérigo Cuervo-Arango, María

2008-11-01

The present study focuses mainly on the relationship between psychological constructs and ecological behaviour. Empirical analysis links personal values, ecological beliefs, consequences of environmental conditions, denial of ecological obligation, environmental control, personal norms and environment protection behaviour. Survey data from a path analysis of a Spanish sample of 403 individuals were used, showing that ecological beliefs, personal norms and eco-altruistic values have become the main psychological explanatory variables of environment protective behaviour. Ecological beliefs, when measured by the New Ecological Paradigm Scale, affected ecological behaviour decisively. Environmental and altruistic values were shown to be related to moral obligation, and a basic variable to understand behaviour. Personal norm mediated the effects of values and environmental control on ecological behaviour.

Bi-dimensional null model analysis of presence-absence binary matrices.

PubMed

Strona, Giovanni; Ulrich, Werner; Gotelli, Nicholas J

2018-01-01

Comparing the structure of presence/absence (i.e., binary) matrices with those of randomized counterparts is a common practice in ecology. However, differences in the randomization procedures (null models) can affect the results of the comparisons, leading matrix structural patterns to appear either "random" or not. Subjectivity in the choice of one particular null model over another makes it often advisable to compare the results obtained using several different approaches. Yet, available algorithms to randomize binary matrices differ substantially in respect to the constraints they impose on the discrepancy between observed and randomized row and column marginal totals, which complicates the interpretation of contrasting patterns. This calls for new strategies both to explore intermediate scenarios of restrictiveness in-between extreme constraint assumptions, and to properly synthesize the resulting information. Here we introduce a new modeling framework based on a flexible matrix randomization algorithm (named the "Tuning Peg" algorithm) that addresses both issues. The algorithm consists of a modified swap procedure in which the discrepancy between the row and column marginal totals of the target matrix and those of its randomized counterpart can be "tuned" in a continuous way by two parameters (controlling, respectively, row and column discrepancy). We show how combining the Tuning Peg with a wise random walk procedure makes it possible to explore the complete null space embraced by existing algorithms. This exploration allows researchers to visualize matrix structural patterns in an innovative bi-dimensional landscape of significance/effect size. We demonstrate the rational and potential of our approach with a set of simulated and real matrices, showing how the simultaneous investigation of a comprehensive and continuous portion of the null space can be extremely informative, and possibly key to resolving longstanding debates in the analysis of ecological matrices. © 2017 The Authors. Ecology, published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc., on behalf of the Ecological Society of America.

Ecological modeling from time-series inference: insight into dynamics and stability of intestinal microbiota.

PubMed

Stein, Richard R; Bucci, Vanni; Toussaint, Nora C; Buffie, Charlie G; Rätsch, Gunnar; Pamer, Eric G; Sander, Chris; Xavier, João B

2013-01-01

The intestinal microbiota is a microbial ecosystem of crucial importance to human health. Understanding how the microbiota confers resistance against enteric pathogens and how antibiotics disrupt that resistance is key to the prevention and cure of intestinal infections. We present a novel method to infer microbial community ecology directly from time-resolved metagenomics. This method extends generalized Lotka-Volterra dynamics to account for external perturbations. Data from recent experiments on antibiotic-mediated Clostridium difficile infection is analyzed to quantify microbial interactions, commensal-pathogen interactions, and the effect of the antibiotic on the community. Stability analysis reveals that the microbiota is intrinsically stable, explaining how antibiotic perturbations and C. difficile inoculation can produce catastrophic shifts that persist even after removal of the perturbations. Importantly, the analysis suggests a subnetwork of bacterial groups implicated in protection against C. difficile. Due to its generality, our method can be applied to any high-resolution ecological time-series data to infer community structure and response to external stimuli.

Population Viability Analysis of Riverine Fishes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bates, P.; Chandler, J.; Jager, H.I.

Many utilities face conflkts between two goals: cost-efficient hydropower generation and protecting riverine fishes. Research to develop ecological simulation tools that can evaluate alternative mitigation strategies in terms of their benefits to fish populations is vital to informed decision-making. In this paper, we describe our approach to population viability analysis of riverine fishes in general and Snake River white sturgeon in particular. We are finding that the individual-based modeling approach used in previous in-stream flow applications is well suited to addressing questions about the viability of species of concern for several reasons. Chief among these are: (1) the abiIity tomore » represent the effects of individual variation in life history characteristics on predicted population viabili~, (2) the flexibili~ needed to quanti~ the ecological benefits of alternative flow management options by representing spatial and temporal variation in flow and temperaturty and (3) the flexibility needed to quantifi the ecological benefits of non-flow related manipulations (i.e., passage, screening and hatchery supplementation).« less

Ecological niches of three teuthophageous odontocetes in the northwestern Mediterranean Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Praca, E.; Gannier, A.

2008-02-01

In the northwestern Mediterranean Sea, sperm whales, pilot whales and Risso's dolphins prey exclusively or preferentially on cephalopods. In order to evaluate their competition, we modelled their habitat suitability with the Ecological Niche Factor Analysis (ENFA) and compared their ecological niches using a discriminant analysis. We used a long term (1995-2005) small boat data set, with visual and acoustic (sperm whale) detections. Risso's dolphin had the shallowest and the more spatially restricted principal habitat, mainly located on the upper part of the continental slope (640 m mean depth). With a wider principal habitat, at 1750 m depth in average, the sperm whale used a deeper part of the slope as well as the closest offshore waters. Finally, the pilot whale has the most oceanic habitat (2500 m mean depth) mainly located in the central Ligurian Sea and Provençal basin. Therefore, potential competition for food between these species may be reduced by the differentiation of their habitats.

Ecological Modeling from Time-Series Inference: Insight into Dynamics and Stability of Intestinal Microbiota

PubMed Central

Toussaint, Nora C.; Buffie, Charlie G.; Rätsch, Gunnar; Pamer, Eric G.; Sander, Chris; Xavier, João B.

2013-01-01

The intestinal microbiota is a microbial ecosystem of crucial importance to human health. Understanding how the microbiota confers resistance against enteric pathogens and how antibiotics disrupt that resistance is key to the prevention and cure of intestinal infections. We present a novel method to infer microbial community ecology directly from time-resolved metagenomics. This method extends generalized Lotka–Volterra dynamics to account for external perturbations. Data from recent experiments on antibiotic-mediated Clostridium difficile infection is analyzed to quantify microbial interactions, commensal-pathogen interactions, and the effect of the antibiotic on the community. Stability analysis reveals that the microbiota is intrinsically stable, explaining how antibiotic perturbations and C. difficile inoculation can produce catastrophic shifts that persist even after removal of the perturbations. Importantly, the analysis suggests a subnetwork of bacterial groups implicated in protection against C. difficile. Due to its generality, our method can be applied to any high-resolution ecological time-series data to infer community structure and response to external stimuli. PMID:24348232

Insights into the ecology, evolution, and metabolism of the widespread Woesearchaeotal lineages.

PubMed

Liu, Xiaobo; Li, Meng; Castelle, Cindy J; Probst, Alexander J; Zhou, Zhichao; Pan, Jie; Liu, Yang; Banfield, Jillian F; Gu, Ji-Dong

2018-06-08

As a recently discovered member of the DPANN superphylum, Woesearchaeota account for a wide diversity of 16S rRNA gene sequences, but their ecology, evolution, and metabolism remain largely unknown. Here, we assembled 133 global clone libraries/studies and 19 publicly available genomes to profile these patterns for Woesearchaeota. Phylogenetic analysis shows a high diversity with 26 proposed subgroups for this recently discovered archaeal phylum, which are widely distributed in different biotopes but primarily in inland anoxic environments. Ecological patterns analysis and ancestor state reconstruction for specific subgroups reveal that oxic status of the environments is the key factor driving the distribution and evolutionary diversity of Woesearchaeota. A selective distribution to different biotopes and an adaptive colonization from anoxic to oxic environments can be proposed and supported by evidence of the presence of ferredoxin-dependent pathways in the genomes only from anoxic biotopes but not from oxic biotopes. Metabolic reconstructions support an anaerobic heterotrophic lifestyle with conspicuous metabolic deficiencies, suggesting the requirement for metabolic complementarity with other microbes. Both lineage abundance distribution and co-occurrence network analyses across diverse biotopes confirmed metabolic complementation and revealed a potential syntrophic relationship between Woesearchaeota and methanogens, which is supported by metabolic modeling. If correct, Woesearchaeota may impact methanogenesis in inland ecosystems. The findings provide an ecological and evolutionary framework for Woesearchaeota at a global scale and indicate their potential ecological roles, especially in methanogenesis.

Resilience and Alternative Stable States of Tropical Forest Landscapes under Shifting Cultivation Regimes

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

Shifting cultivation is a traditional agricultural practice in most tropical regions of the world and has the potential to provide for human livelihoods while hosting substantial biodiversity. Little is known about the resilience of shifting cultivation to increasing agricultural demands on the landscape or to unexpected disturbances. To investigate these issues, we develop a simple social-ecological model and implement it with literature-derived ecological parameters for six shifting cultivation landscapes from three continents. Analyzing the model with the tools of dynamical systems analysis, we show that such landscapes exhibit two stable states, one characterized by high forest cover and agricultural productivity, and another with much lower values of these traits. For some combinations of agricultural pressure and ecological parameters both of these states can potentially exist, and the actual state of the forest depends critically on its historic state. In many cases, the landscapes’ ‘ecological resilience’, or amount of forest that could be destroyed without shifting out of the forested stability domain, declined substantially at lower levels of agricultural pressure than would lead to maximum productivity. A measure of ‘engineering resilience’, the recovery time from standardized disturbances, was independent of ecological resilience. These findings suggest that maximization of short-term agricultural output may have counterproductive impacts on the long-term productivity of shifting cultivation landscapes and the persistence of forested areas. PMID:26406907

On the dangers of model complexity without ecological justification in species distribution modeling

Treesearch

David M. Bell; Daniel R. Schlaepfer

2016-01-01

Although biogeographic patterns are the product of complex ecological processes, the increasing com-plexity of correlative species distribution models (SDMs) is not always motivated by ecological theory,but by model fit. The validity of model projections, such as shifts in a species’ climatic niche, becomesquestionable particularly during extrapolations, such as for...

What is the animal doing? Tools for exploring behavioural structure in animal movements.

PubMed

Gurarie, Eliezer; Bracis, Chloe; Delgado, Maria; Meckley, Trevor D; Kojola, Ilpo; Wagner, C Michael

2016-01-01

Movement data provide a window - often our only window - into the cognitive, social and biological processes that underlie the behavioural ecology of animals in the wild. Robust methods for identifying and interpreting distinct modes of movement behaviour are of great importance, but complicated by the fact that movement data are complex, multivariate and dependent. Many different approaches to exploratory analysis of movement have been developed to answer similar questions, and practitioners are often at a loss for how to choose an appropriate tool for a specific question. We apply and compare four methodological approaches: first passage time (FPT), Bayesian partitioning of Markov models (BPMM), behavioural change point analysis (BCPA) and a fitted multistate random walk (MRW) to three simulated tracks and two animal trajectories - a sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus) tracked for 12 h and a wolf (Canis lupus) tracked for 1 year. The simulations - in which, respectively, velocity, tortuosity and spatial bias change - highlight the sensitivity of all methods to model misspecification. Methods that do not account for autocorrelation in the movement variables lead to spurious change points, while methods that do not account for spatial bias completely miss changes in orientation. When applied to the animal data, the methods broadly agree on the structure of the movement behaviours. Important discrepancies, however, reflect differences in the assumptions and nature of the outputs. Important trade-offs are between the strength of the a priori assumptions (low in BCPA, high in MRW), complexity of output (high in the BCPA, low in the BPMM and MRW) and explanatory potential (highest in the MRW). The animal track analysis suggests some general principles for the exploratory analysis of movement data, including ways to exploit the strengths of the various methods. We argue for close and detailed exploratory analysis of movement before fitting complex movement models. © 2015 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2015 British Ecological Society.

Manager Perspectives on Communication and Public ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

We argue that public engagement is crucial to achieving lasting ecological success in aquatic restoration efforts, and that the most effective public engagement mechanisms are what we term iterative mechanisms. Here we look to a particular social-ecological system – the restoration community in Rhode Island, U.S.A. and the rivers, wetlands, marshes, and estuaries, and their related species, that they work to protect – to better understand land managers’ perspectives on public engagement in restoration processes. Adopting an inductive approach to critical discourse analysis of interviews with 27 local, state, and federal restoration managers and the forms of public interaction they described, we identify three distinct models of public engagement in natural resources management employed by managers: unidirectional; bidirectional; and iterative. While unidirectional and bidirectional mechanisms can help managers achieve short-term ecological successes, we suggest that adopting an iterative approach can improve the quality of stakeholder and learning interactions and, subsequently, foster lasting ecological successes. We argue that managers can design deliberately for public engagement mechanisms that are best suited to projects in particular social-ecological systems in order to create restoration projects that achieve ecological, learning, and stakeholder successes. We attempt to synthesize the lessons learned from efforts at public engagement in restoratio

A shifting paradigm: Teachers' beliefs and methods for fostering ecological literacy in two public charter schools

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sterling, Evan P.

Ecological literacy is measured by a person's ability to understand the natural systems that make life on earth possible and how to live in accordance with those systems. The emergence of the pedagogies of place- and community-based education during the past two decades provides a possible avenue for fostering ecological literacy in schools. This thesis explores the following research questions: 1) How is ecological literacy fostered in two Alaskan public charter schools? 2) What are teachers' beliefs in these two schools about the way children and youth develop ecological literacy? 3) What are effective teaching methods and what are the challenges in engaging students in ecological literacy? Semi-structured interviews were conducted with six K--12 teachers in two public charter schools in Alaska in order to investigate these questions, and relevant examples of student work were collected for study as well. Qualitative data analysis revealed several emergent themes: the need for real-world connections to curriculum; the necessity of time spent outdoors at a young age; the long-term and holistic nature of ecological literacy development; and the importance of family and community role models in developing connections with the natural world. Based upon the research findings, several recommendations are made to support the efforts of teachers in these schools and elsewhere for fostering ecological literacy in children and youth.

Community-Driven Initiatives to Achieve Interoperability for Ecological and Environmental Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Madin, J.; Bowers, S.; Jones, M.; Schildhauer, M.

2007-12-01

Advances in ecology and environmental science increasingly depend on information from multiple disciplines to tackle broader and more complex questions about the natural world. Such advances, however, are hindered by data heterogeneity, which impedes the ability of researchers to discover, interpret, and integrate relevant data that have been collected by others. Here, we outline two community-building initiatives for improving data interoperability in the ecological and environmental sciences, one that is well-established (the Ecological Metadata Language [EML]), and another that is actively underway (a unified model for observations and measurements). EML is a metadata specification developed for the ecology discipline, and is based on prior work done by the Ecological Society of America and associated efforts to ensure a modular and extensible framework to document ecological data. EML "modules" are designed to describe one logical part of the total metadata that should be included with any ecological dataset. EML was developed through a series of working meetings, ongoing discussion forums and email lists, with participation from a broad range of ecological and environmental scientists, as well as computer scientists and software developers. Where possible, EML adopted syntax from the other metadata standards for other disciplines (e.g., Dublin Core, Content Standard for Digital Geospatial Metadata, and more). Although EML has not yet been ratified through a standards body, it has become the de facto metadata standard for a large range of ecological data management projects, including for the Long Term Ecological Research Network, the National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis, and the Ecological Society of America. The second community-building initiative is based on work through the Scientific Environment for Ecological Knowledge (SEEK) as well as a recent workshop on multi-disciplinary data management. This initiative aims at improving interoperability by describing the semantics of data at the level of observation and measurement (rather than the traditional focus at the level of the data set) and will define the necessary specifications and technologies to facilitate semantic interpretation and integration of observational data for the environmental sciences. As such, this initiative will focus on unifying the various existing approaches for representing and describing observation data (e.g., SEEK's Observation Ontology, CUAHSI's Observation Data Model, NatureServe's Observation Data Standard, to name a few). Products of this initiative will be compatible with existing standards and build upon recent advances in knowledge representation (e.g., W3C's recommended Web Ontology Language, OWL) that have demonstrated practical utility in enhancing scientific communication and data interoperability in other communities (e.g., the genomics community). A community-sanctioned, extensible, and unified model for observational data will support metadata standards such as EML while reducing the "babel" of scientific dialects that currently impede effective data integration, which will in turn provide a strong foundation for enabling cross-disciplinary synthetic research in the ecological and environmental sciences.

Process-Driven Ecological Modeling for Landscape Change Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Altman, S.; Reif, M. K.; Swannack, T. M.

2013-12-01

Landscape pattern is an important driver in ecosystem dynamics and can control system-level functions such as nutrient cycling, connectivity, biodiversity and carbon sequestration. However, the links between process, pattern and function remain ambiguous. Understanding the quantitative relationship between ecological processes and landscape pattern across temporal and spatial scales is vital for successful management and implementation of ecosystem-level projects. We used remote sensing imagery to develop critical landscape metrics to understand the factors influencing landscape change. Our study area, a coastal area in southwest Florida, is highly dynamic with critically eroding beaches and a range of natural and developed land cover types. Hurricanes in 2004 and 2005 caused a breach along the coast of North Captiva Island that filled in by 2010. We used a time series of light detection and ranging (lidar) elevation data and hyperspectral imagery from 2006 and 2010 to determine land cover changes. Landscape level metrics used included: Largest Patch Index, Class Area, Area-weighted mean area, Clumpiness, Area-weighted Contiguity Index, Number of Patches, Percent of landcover, Area-weighted Shape. Our results showed 1) 27% increase in sand/soil class as the channel repaired itself and shoreline was reestablished, 2) 40% decrease in the mudflat class area due to conversion to sand/soil and water, 3) 30% increase in non-wetland vegetation class as a result of new vegetation around the repaired channel, and 4) the water class only slightly increased though there was a marked increase in the patch size area. Thus, the smaller channels disappeared with the infilling of the channel, leaving much larger, less complex patches behind the breach. Our analysis demonstrated that quantification of landscape pattern is critical to linking patterns to ecological processes and understanding how both affect landscape change. Our proof of concept indicated that ecological processes can correlate to landscape pattern and that ecosystem function changes significantly as pattern changes. However, the number of links between landscape metrics and ecological processes are highly variable. Extensively studied processes such as biodiversity can be linked to numerous landscape metrics. In contrast, correlations between sediment cycling and landscape pattern have only been evaluated for a limited number of metrics. We are incorporating these data into a relational database linking landscape and ecological patterns, processes and metrics. The database will be used to parameterize site-specific landscape evolution models projecting how landscape pattern will change as a result of future ecosystem restoration projects. The model is a spatially-explicit, grid-based model that projects changes in community composition based on changes in soil elevations. To capture scalar differences in landscape change, local and regional landscape metrics are analyzed at each time step and correlated with ecological processes to determine how ecosystem function changes with scale over time.

AQUATOX coupled foodweb model for ecosystem risk assessment of Polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) in lake ecosystems.

PubMed

Zhang, Lulu; Liu, Jingling

2014-08-01

The AQUATOX model considers the direct toxic effects of chemicals and their indirect effects through foodwebs. For this study, the AQUATOX model was applied to evaluating the ecological risk of Polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) in a highly anthropogenically disturbed lake-Baiyangdian Lake. Calibration and validation results indicated that the model can adequately describe the dynamics of 18 biological populations. Sensitivity analysis results suggested that the model is highly sensitive to temperature limitation. PBDEs risk estimate results demonstrate that estimated risk for natural ecosystems cannot be fully explained by single species toxicity data alone. The AQUATOX model could provide a good basis in ascertaining ecological protection levels of "chemicals of concern" for aquatic ecosystems. Therefore, AQUATOX can potentially be used to provide necessary information corresponding to early warning and rapid forecasting of pollutant transport and fate in the management of chemicals that put aquatic ecosystems at risk. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Dive Distribution and Group Size Parameters for Marine Species Occurring in the U.S. Navy’s Atlantic and Hawaii-Southern California Training and Testing Study Areas

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-06-09

in water temperature have an effect on the behavioral ecology of hawksbill turtles, with an increase in nocturnal dive duration with decreasing water...important element of the Navy’s comprehensive environmental planning is the acoustic effects analysis executed with the Navy Acoustic Effects Model...comprehensive environmental planning is the acoustic effects analysis executed with the Navy Acoustic Effects Model (NAEMO) software. NAEMO was

Forecasting Responses of a Northern Peatland Carbon Cycle to Elevated CO2 and a Gradient of Experimental Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Jiang; Huang, Yuanyuan; Ma, Shuang; Stacy, Mark; Shi, Zheng; Ricciuto, Daniel M.; Hanson, Paul J.; Luo, Yiqi

2018-03-01

The ability to forecast ecological carbon cycling is imperative to land management in a world where past carbon fluxes are no longer a clear guide in the Anthropocene. However, carbon-flux forecasting has not been practiced routinely like numerical weather prediction. This study explored (1) the relative contributions of model forcing data and parameters to uncertainty in forecasting flux- versus pool-based carbon cycle variables and (2) the time points when temperature and CO2 treatments may cause statistically detectable differences in those variables. We developed an online forecasting workflow (Ecological Platform for Assimilation of Data (EcoPAD)), which facilitates iterative data-model integration. EcoPAD automates data transfer from sensor networks, data assimilation, and ecological forecasting. We used the Spruce and Peatland Responses Under Changing Experiments data collected from 2011 to 2014 to constrain the parameters in the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model, forecast carbon cycle responses to elevated CO2 and a gradient of warming from 2015 to 2024, and specify uncertainties in the model output. Our results showed that data assimilation substantially reduces forecasting uncertainties. Interestingly, we found that the stochasticity of future external forcing contributed more to the uncertainty of forecasting future dynamics of C flux-related variables than model parameters. However, the parameter uncertainty primarily contributes to the uncertainty in forecasting C pool-related response variables. Given the uncertainties in forecasting carbon fluxes and pools, our analysis showed that statistically different responses of fast-turnover pools to various CO2 and warming treatments were observed sooner than slow-turnover pools. Our study has identified the sources of uncertainties in model prediction and thus leads to improve ecological carbon cycling forecasts in the future.

Model-based assessment of estuary ecosystem health using the latent health factor index, with application to the richibucto estuary.

PubMed

Chiu, Grace S; Wu, Margaret A; Lu, Lin

2013-01-01

The ability to quantitatively assess ecological health is of great interest to those tasked with monitoring and conserving ecosystems. For decades, biomonitoring research and policies have relied on multimetric health indices of various forms. Although indices are numbers, many are constructed based on qualitative procedures, thus limiting the quantitative rigor of the practical interpretations of such indices. The statistical modeling approach to construct the latent health factor index (LHFI) was recently developed. With ecological data that otherwise are used to construct conventional multimetric indices, the LHFI framework expresses such data in a rigorous quantitative model, integrating qualitative features of ecosystem health and preconceived ecological relationships among such features. This hierarchical modeling approach allows unified statistical inference of health for observed sites (along with prediction of health for partially observed sites, if desired) and of the relevance of ecological drivers, all accompanied by formal uncertainty statements from a single, integrated analysis. Thus far, the LHFI approach has been demonstrated and validated in a freshwater context. We adapt this approach to modeling estuarine health, and illustrate it on the previously unassessed system in Richibucto in New Brunswick, Canada, where active oyster farming is a potential stressor through its effects on sediment properties. Field data correspond to health metrics that constitute the popular AZTI marine biotic index and the infaunal trophic index, as well as abiotic predictors preconceived to influence biota. Our paper is the first to construct a scientifically sensible model that rigorously identifies the collective explanatory capacity of salinity, distance downstream, channel depth, and silt-clay content-all regarded a priori as qualitatively important abiotic drivers-towards site health in the Richibucto ecosystem. This suggests the potential effectiveness of the LHFI approach for assessing not only freshwater systems but aquatic ecosystems in general.

Contributions of Ecological School Mental Health Services to Students' Academic Success

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Doll, Beth; Spies, Rob; Champion, Allison

2012-01-01

This article describes an ecological framework for school mental health services that differs in important ways from existing service delivery models. The model is based on research describing ecological frameworks underlying students' school success. Ecological characteristics of schools and classrooms that promote academic success are described…

[Ecological compensation standard in Dongting Lake region of returning cropland to lake based on emergy analysis].

PubMed

Mao, De-Hua; Hu, Guang-Wei; Liu, Hui-Jie; Li, Zheng-Zui; Li, Zhi-Long; Tan, Zi-Fang

2014-02-01

The annual emergy and currency value of the main ecological service value of returning cropland to lake in Dongting Lake region from 1999 to 2010 was calculated based on emergy analysis. The calculation method of ecological compensation standard was established by calculating annual total emergy of ecological service function increment since the starting year of returning cropland to lake, and the annual ecological compensation standard and compensation area were analyzed from 1999 to 2010. The results indicated that ecological compensation standard from 1999 to 2010 was 40.31-86.48 yuan x m(-2) with the mean of 57.33 yuan x m(-2). The ecological compensation standard presented an increase trend year by year due to the effect of eco-recovery of returning cropland to lake. The ecological compensation standard in the research area presented a swift and steady growth trend after 2005 mainly due to the intensive economy development of Hunan Province, suggesting the value of natural ecological resources would increase along with the development of society and economy. Appling the emergy analysis to research the ecological compensation standard could reveal the dynamics of annual ecological compensation standard, solve the abutment problem of matter flow, energy flow and economic flow, and overcome the subjective and arbitrary of environment economic methods. The empirical research of ecological compensation standard in Dongting Lake region showed that the emergy analysis was feasible and advanced.

An analytically tractable model for community ecology with many species

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dickens, Benjamin; Fisher, Charles; Mehta, Pankaj; Pankaj Mehta Biophysics Theory Group Team

A fundamental problem in community ecology is to understand how ecological processes such as selection, drift, and immigration yield observed patterns in species composition and diversity. Here, we present an analytically tractable, presence-absence (PA) model for community assembly and use it to ask how ecological traits such as the strength of competition, diversity in competition, and stochasticity affect species composition in a community. In our PA model, we treat species as stochastic binary variables that can either be present or absent in a community: species can immigrate into the community from a regional species pool and can go extinct due to competition and stochasticity. Despite its simplicity, the PA model reproduces the qualitative features of more complicated models of community assembly. In agreement with recent work on large, competitive Lotka-Volterra systems, the PA model exhibits distinct ecological behaviors organized around a special (``critical'') point corresponding to Hubbell's neutral theory of biodiversity. Our results suggest that the concepts of ``phases'' and phase diagrams can provide a powerful framework for thinking about community ecology and that the PA model captures the essential ecological dynamics of community assembly. Pm was supported by a Simons Investigator in the Mathematical Modeling of Living Systems and a Sloan Research Fellowship.

Formalizing the definition of meta-analysis in Molecular Ecology.

PubMed

ArchMiller, Althea A; Bauer, Eric F; Koch, Rebecca E; Wijayawardena, Bhagya K; Anil, Ammu; Kottwitz, Jack J; Munsterman, Amelia S; Wilson, Alan E

2015-08-01

Meta-analysis, the statistical synthesis of pertinent literature to develop evidence-based conclusions, is relatively new to the field of molecular ecology, with the first meta-analysis published in the journal Molecular Ecology in 2003 (Slate & Phua 2003). The goal of this article is to formalize the definition of meta-analysis for the authors, editors, reviewers and readers of Molecular Ecology by completing a review of the meta-analyses previously published in this journal. We also provide a brief overview of the many components required for meta-analysis with a more specific discussion of the issues related to the field of molecular ecology, including the use and statistical considerations of Wright's FST and its related analogues as effect sizes in meta-analysis. We performed a literature review to identify articles published as 'meta-analyses' in Molecular Ecology, which were then evaluated by at least two reviewers. We specifically targeted Molecular Ecology publications because as a flagship journal in this field, meta-analyses published in Molecular Ecology have the potential to set the standard for meta-analyses in other journals. We found that while many of these reviewed articles were strong meta-analyses, others failed to follow standard meta-analytical techniques. One of these unsatisfactory meta-analyses was in fact a secondary analysis. Other studies attempted meta-analyses but lacked the fundamental statistics that are considered necessary for an effective and powerful meta-analysis. By drawing attention to the inconsistency of studies labelled as meta-analyses, we emphasize the importance of understanding the components of traditional meta-analyses to fully embrace the strengths of quantitative data synthesis in the field of molecular ecology. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

[Study on ecological risk assessment technology of fluoride pollution from arid oasis soil].

PubMed

Xue, Su-Yin; Li, Ping; Wang, Sheng-Li; Nan, Zhong-Ren

2014-03-01

According to translocation regulation of fluoride in the typical oasis soil-plant system under field, an ecological risk assessment model of fluoride was established, and this model was used to assess ecological risk to fluoride pollution from suburban oasis soils in Baiyin City, which was specifically expressed with the potential ecological risk of bioavailability (ER(bc)) model to assess ecological risk of fluoride pollution in oasis regions. Results showed that the ecological risk indices of fluoride pollution from this region were 1.37-24.81, the level of risk at most sites was high to very high, the average ecological risk index was 11.28, belonged to very high risk. This indicated that in the suburb soil of Baiyin City needs to be concerned about the remediation of fluoride pollution.

Exploration of sustainable development by applying green economy indicators.

PubMed

Chen, Yungkun; Chen, Chia-Yon; Hsieh, Tsuifang

2011-11-01

Following the global trend of sustainable development, development of green economy is the best way of slowing the negative ecological and environmental impact. This research establishes the Taiwan's green economic indicators based on the ecological footprint and energy analysis. The results are as follows: Taiwan's ecological footprint in 2008 intensity index was at 4.364; ecological overshoot index was at 3.364, showing that Taiwan's ecological system is in overload state. Moreover, this study utilizes energy analysis model to study the sustainable development of Taiwan. Findings showed that total energy use in 2008 was 3.14 × 10(23) sej (solar energy joule, sej), energy of renewable resources was 1.30 × 10(22) sej, energy of nonrenewable resources was 2.26 × 10(23) sej, energy of products from renewable resources was 1.30 × 10(22)sej, energy of currency flow was 8.02 × 10(22) sej and energy of wastes flow was 6.55 × 10(22) sej. Taiwan's energy per capita and the utilization rate of energy is lower while the environmental loading rate is significantly higher comparing to some other countries. The foregoing findings indicate that Taiwan currently belongs to an economic development pattern based on high resource consumption. The economic development is mainly established on the exploitation and utilization of nonrenewable resources. Therefore, Taiwan should change the development pattern, regulate the industrial structure, promote the utilization rate of resources, develop green pollution-free products, and enhance the sustainable development of ecological economic system.

Ecological Sensitivity Evaluation of Tourist Region Based on Remote Sensing Image - Taking Chaohu Lake Area as a Case Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Y.; Li, W. J.; Yu, J.; Wu, C. Z.

2018-04-01

Remote sensing technology is of significant advantages for monitoring and analysing ecological environment. By using of automatic extraction algorithm, various environmental resources information of tourist region can be obtained from remote sensing imagery. Combining with GIS spatial analysis and landscape pattern analysis, relevant environmental information can be quantitatively analysed and interpreted. In this study, taking the Chaohu Lake Basin as an example, Landsat-8 multi-spectral satellite image of October 2015 was applied. Integrated the automatic ELM (Extreme Learning Machine) classification results with the data of digital elevation model and slope information, human disturbance degree, land use degree, primary productivity, landscape evenness , vegetation coverage, DEM, slope and normalized water body index were used as the evaluation factors to construct the eco-sensitivity evaluation index based on AHP and overlay analysis. According to the value of eco-sensitivity evaluation index, by using of GIS technique of equal interval reclassification, the Chaohu Lake area was divided into four grades: very sensitive area, sensitive area, sub-sensitive areas and insensitive areas. The results of the eco-sensitivity analysis shows: the area of the very sensitive area was 4577.4378 km2, accounting for about 37.12 %, the sensitive area was 5130.0522 km2, accounting for about 37.12 %; the area of sub-sensitive area was 3729.9312 km2, accounting for 26.99 %; the area of insensitive area was 382.4399 km2, accounting for about 2.77 %. At the same time, it has been found that there were spatial differences in ecological sensitivity of the Chaohu Lake basin. The most sensitive areas were mainly located in the areas with high elevation and large terrain gradient. Insensitive areas were mainly distributed in slope of the slow platform area; the sensitive areas and the sub-sensitive areas were mainly agricultural land and woodland. Through the eco-sensitivity analysis of the study area, the automatic recognition and analysis techniques for remote sensing imagery are integrated into the ecological analysis and ecological regional planning, which can provide a reliable scientific basis for rational planning and regional sustainable development of the Chaohu Lake tourist area.

Adaptation of FIBER for Forest Inventory and Analysis growth projections in the State of Maine

Treesearch

Dale S. Solomon; Thomas B. Brann; Lawrence E. Caldwell

2000-01-01

The model FIBER (Forest Increment Based on Ecological Rationale) was selected by the Technical Review Team on the Sustainability of Timber Supplies in the State of Maine to construct yield information using USDA Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) field data. FIBER habitat criteria based on soil characteristics, species composition of overstory, and...

[Some comments on ecological field].

PubMed

Wang, D

2000-06-01

Based on the data of plant ecological field studies, this paper reviewed the conception of ecological field, field eigenfunctions, graphs of ecological field and its application of ecological field theory in explaining plant interactions. It is suggested that the basic character of ecological field is material, and based on the current research level, it is not sure whether ecological field is a kind of specific field different from general physical field. The author gave some comments on the formula and estimation of parameters of basic field function-ecological potential model on ecological field. Both models have their own characteristics and advantages in specific conditions. The author emphasized that ecological field had even more meaning of ecological methodology, and applying ecological field theory in describing the types and processes of plant interactions had three characteristics: quantitative, synthetic and intuitionistic. Field graphing might provide a new way to ecological studies, especially applying the ecological field theory might give an appropriate quantitative explanation for the dynamic process of plant populations (coexistence and interference competition).

A NUMERICAL ANALYSIS OF LANDFALL OF THE 1979 RED TIDE OF KARENIA BREVIS ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA. (R827085)

EPA Science Inventory

Abstract

A simple ecological model, coupled to a primitive equation circulation model, is able to replicate the observed alongshore transport of the toxic dinoflagellate Karenia brevis on the West Florida shelf during a fall red tide in 1979. Initial land fall o...

Roads in landscape modeling: a case study of a road data layer and use in the interior northwest landscape analysis system.

Treesearch

Marti Aitken; Jane L. Hayes

2006-01-01

Roads are important ecological features of forest landscapes, but their cause-and effect relationships with other ecosystem components are only recently becoming included in integrated landscape analyses. Simulation models can help us to understand how forested landscapes respond over time to disturbance and socioeconomic factors, and potentially to address the...

Analysis of habitat-selection rules using an individual-based model

Treesearch

Steven F. Railsback; Bret C. Harvey

2002-01-01

Abstract - Despite their promise for simulating natural complexity,individual-based models (IBMs) are rarely used for ecological research or resource management. Few IBMs have been shown to reproduce realistic patterns of behavior by individual organisms.To test our IBM of stream salmonids and draw conclusions about foraging theory,we analyzed the IBM ’s ability to...

Temporal carbon dynamics of forests in Washington, US: implications for ecological theory and carbon management

Treesearch

Crystal L. Raymond; Donald McKenzie

2014-01-01

We quantified carbon (C) dynamics of forests in Washington, US using theoretical models of C dynamics as a function of forest age. We fit empirical models to chronosequences of forest inventory data at two scales: a coarse-scale ecosystem classification (ecosections) and forest types (potential vegetation) within ecosections. We hypothesized that analysis at the finer...

Estimating parameters of a forest ecosystem C model with measurements of stocks and fluxes as joint constraints

Treesearch

Andrew D. Richardson; Mathew Williams; David Y. Hollinger; David J.P. Moore; D. Bryan Dail; Eric A. Davidson; Neal A. Scott; Robert S. Evans; Holly. Hughes

2010-01-01

We conducted an inverse modeling analysis, using a variety of data streams (tower-based eddy covariance measurements of net ecosystem exchange, NEE, of CO2, chamber-based measurements of soil respiration, and ancillary ecological measurements of leaf area index, litterfall, and woody biomass increment) to estimate parameters and initial carbon (C...

Uses of ecologic analysis in epidemiologic research.

PubMed Central

Morgenstern, H

1982-01-01

Despite the widespread use of ecologic analysis in epidemiologic research and health planning, little attention has been given by health scientists and practitioners to the methodological aspects of this approach. This paper reviews the major types of ecologic study designs, the analytic methods appropriate for each, the limitations of ecologic data for making causal inferences and what can be done to minimize these problems, and the relative advantages of ecologic analysis. Numerous examples are provided to illustrate the important principles and methods. A careful distinction is made between ecologic studies that generate or test etiologic hypotheses and those that evaluate the impact of intervention programs or policies (given adequate knowledge of disease etiology). Failure to recognize this difference in the conduct of ecologic studies can lead to results that are not very informative or that are misinterpreted by others. PMID:7137430

A laboratory-calibrated model of coho salmon growth with utility for ecological analyses

USGS Publications Warehouse

Manhard, Christopher V.; Som, Nicholas A.; Perry, Russell W.; Plumb, John M.

2018-01-01

We conducted a meta-analysis of laboratory- and hatchery-based growth data to estimate broadly applicable parameters of mass- and temperature-dependent growth of juvenile coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch). Following studies of other salmonid species, we incorporated the Ratkowsky growth model into an allometric model and fit this model to growth observations from eight studies spanning ten different populations. To account for changes in growth patterns with food availability, we reparameterized the Ratkowsky model to scale several of its parameters relative to ration. The resulting model was robust across a wide range of ration allocations and experimental conditions, accounting for 99% of the variation in final body mass. We fit this model to growth data from coho salmon inhabiting tributaries and constructed ponds in the Klamath Basin by estimating habitat-specific indices of food availability. The model produced evidence that constructed ponds provided higher food availability than natural tributaries. Because of their simplicity (only mass and temperature are required as inputs) and robustness, ration-varying Ratkowsky models have utility as an ecological tool for capturing growth in freshwater fish populations.

Assessing the accuracy and stability of variable selection methods for random forest modeling in ecology

EPA Science Inventory

Random forest (RF) modeling has emerged as an important statistical learning method in ecology due to its exceptional predictive performance. However, for large and complex ecological datasets there is limited guidance on variable selection methods for RF modeling. Typically, e...

Empirical Succession Mapping and Data Assimilation to Constrain Demographic Processes in an Ecosystem Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kelly, R.; Andrews, T.; Dietze, M.

2015-12-01

Shifts in ecological communities in response to environmental change have implications for biodiversity, ecosystem function, and feedbacks to global climate change. Community composition is fundamentally the product of demography, but demographic processes are simplified or missing altogether in many ecosystem, Earth system, and species distribution models. This limitation arises in part because demographic data are noisy and difficult to synthesize. As a consequence, demographic processes are challenging to formulate in models in the first place, and to verify and constrain with data thereafter. Here, we used a novel analysis of the USFS Forest Inventory Analysis to improve the representation of demography in an ecosystem model. First, we created an Empirical Succession Mapping (ESM) based on ~1 million individual tree observations from the eastern U.S. to identify broad demographic patterns related to forest succession and disturbance. We used results from this analysis to guide reformulation of the Ecosystem Demography model (ED), an existing forest simulator with explicit tree demography. Results from the ESM reveal a coherent, cyclic pattern of change in temperate forest tree size and density over the eastern U.S. The ESM captures key ecological processes including succession, self-thinning, and gap-filling, and quantifies the typical trajectory of these processes as a function of tree size and stand density. Recruitment is most rapid in early-successional stands with low density and mean diameter, but slows as stand density increases; mean diameter increases until thinning promotes recruitment of small-diameter trees. Strikingly, the upper bound of size-density space that emerges in the ESM conforms closely to the self-thinning power law often observed in ecology. The ED model obeys this same overall size-density boundary, but overestimates plot-level growth, mortality, and fecundity rates, leading to unrealistic emergent demographic patterns. In particular, the current ED formulation cannot capture steady state dynamics evident in the ESM. Ongoing efforts are aimed at reformulating ED to more closely approach overall forest dynamics evident in the ESM, and then assimilating inventory data to constrain model parameters and initial conditions.

Mapping ecological states in a complex environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steele, C. M.; Bestelmeyer, B.; Burkett, L. M.; Ayers, E.; Romig, K.; Slaughter, A.

2013-12-01

The vegetation of northern Chihuahuan Desert rangelands is sparse, heterogeneous and for most of the year, consists of a large proportion of non-photosynthetic material. The soils in this area are spectrally bright and variable in their reflectance properties. Both factors provide challenges to the application of remote sensing for estimating canopy variables (e.g., leaf area index, biomass, percentage canopy cover, primary production). Additionally, with reference to current paradigms of rangeland health assessment, remotely-sensed estimates of canopy variables have limited practical use to the rangeland manager if they are not placed in the context of ecological site and ecological state. To address these challenges, we created a multifactor classification system based on the USDA-NRCS ecological site schema and associated state-and-transition models to map ecological states on desert rangelands in southern New Mexico. Applying this system using per-pixel image processing techniques and multispectral, remotely sensed imagery raised other challenges. Per-pixel image classification relies upon the spectral information in each pixel alone, there is no reference to the spatial context of the pixel and its relationship with its neighbors. Ecological state classes may have direct relevance to managers but the non-unique spectral properties of different ecological state classes in our study area means that per-pixel classification of multispectral data performs poorly in discriminating between different ecological states. We found that image interpreters who are familiar with the landscape and its associated ecological site descriptions perform better than per-pixel classification techniques in assigning ecological states. However, two important issues affect manual classification methods: subjectivity of interpretation and reproducibility of results. An alternative to per-pixel classification and manual interpretation is object-based image analysis. Object-based image analysis provides a platform for classification that more closely resembles human recognition of objects within a remotely sensed image. The analysis presented here compares multiple thematic maps created for test locations on the USDA-ARS Jornada Experimental Range ranch. Three study sites in different pastures, each 300 ha in size, were selected for comparison on the basis of their ecological site type (';Clayey', ';Sandy' and a combination of both) and the degree of complexity of vegetation cover. Thematic maps were produced for each study site using (i) manual interpretation of digital aerial photography (by five independent interpreters); (ii) object-oriented, decision-tree classification of fine and moderate spatial resolution imagery (Quickbird; Landsat Thematic Mapper) and (iii) ground survey. To identify areas of uncertainty, we compared agreement in location, areal extent and class assignation between 5 independently produced, manually-digitized ecological state maps and with the map created from ground survey. Location, areal extent and class assignation of the map produced by object-oriented classification was also assessed with reference to the ground survey map.

Spatially Explicit Landscape-Level Ecological Risks Induced by Land Use and Land Cover Change in a National Ecologically Representative Region in China.

PubMed

Gong, Jian; Yang, Jianxin; Tang, Wenwu

2015-11-09

Land use and land cover change is driven by multiple influential factors from environmental and social dimensions in a land system. Land use practices of human decision-makers modify the landscape of the land system, possibly leading to landscape fragmentation, biodiversity loss, or environmental pollution-severe environmental or ecological impacts. While landscape-level ecological risk assessment supports the evaluation of these impacts, investigations on how these ecological risks induced by land use practices change over space and time in response to alternative policy intervention remain inadequate. In this article, we conducted spatially explicit landscape ecological risk analysis in Ezhou City, China. Our study area is a national ecologically representative region experiencing drastic land use and land cover change, and is regulated by multiple policies represented by farmland protection, ecological conservation, and urban development. We employed landscape metrics to consider the influence of potential landscape-level disturbance for the evaluation of landscape ecological risks. Using spatiotemporal simulation, we designed scenarios to examine spatiotemporal patterns in landscape ecological risks in response to policy intervention. Our study demonstrated that spatially explicit landscape ecological risk analysis combined with simulation-driven scenario analysis is of particular importance for guiding the sustainable development of ecologically vulnerable land systems.

Spatially Explicit Landscape-Level Ecological Risks Induced by Land Use and Land Cover Change in a National Ecologically Representative Region in China

PubMed Central

Gong, Jian; Yang, Jianxin; Tang, Wenwu

2015-01-01

Land use and land cover change is driven by multiple influential factors from environmental and social dimensions in a land system. Land use practices of human decision-makers modify the landscape of the land system, possibly leading to landscape fragmentation, biodiversity loss, or environmental pollution—severe environmental or ecological impacts. While landscape-level ecological risk assessment supports the evaluation of these impacts, investigations on how these ecological risks induced by land use practices change over space and time in response to alternative policy intervention remain inadequate. In this article, we conducted spatially explicit landscape ecological risk analysis in Ezhou City, China. Our study area is a national ecologically representative region experiencing drastic land use and land cover change, and is regulated by multiple policies represented by farmland protection, ecological conservation, and urban development. We employed landscape metrics to consider the influence of potential landscape-level disturbance for the evaluation of landscape ecological risks. Using spatiotemporal simulation, we designed scenarios to examine spatiotemporal patterns in landscape ecological risks in response to policy intervention. Our study demonstrated that spatially explicit landscape ecological risk analysis combined with simulation-driven scenario analysis is of particular importance for guiding the sustainable development of ecologically vulnerable land systems. PMID:26569270

Mapping the information landscape: Discerning peaks and valleys for ecological monitoring

USGS Publications Warehouse

Moniz, L.J.; Nichols, J.D.; Nichols, J.M.

2007-01-01

We investigate previously unreported phenomena that have a potentially significant impact on the design of surveillance monitoring programs for ecological systems. Ecological monitoring practitioners have long recognized that different species are differentially informative of a system?s dynamics, as codified in the well-known concepts of indicator or keystone species. Using a novel combination of analysis techniques from nonlinear dynamics, we describe marked variation among spatial sites in information content with respect to system dynamics in the entire region. We first observed these phenomena in a spatially extended predator?prey model, but we observed strikingly similar features in verified water-level data from a NOAA/NOS Great Lakes monitoring program. We suggest that these features may be widespread and the design of surveillance monitoring programs should reflect knowledge of their existence.

Analysis of the ecological conservation behavior of farmers in payment for ecosystem service programs in eco-environmentally fragile areas using social psychology models.

PubMed

Deng, Jian; Sun, Pingsheng; Zhao, Fazhu; Han, Xinhui; Yang, Gaihe; Feng, Yongzhong

2016-04-15

Studies on the ecological conservation behavior of farmers usually focus on individual and socio-economic characteristics without consideration of the underlying psychological constructs, such as farmers' intention and perceptions. This study uses the theory of planned behavior (TPB), a typical social psychology construct, to analyze the factors affecting the intention and behavior of farmers for conserving the ecological achievements from payment for ecosystem service (PES) programs in eco-environmentally fragile areas. Questionnaires based on TPB were administered to 1004 farmers from the Grain to Green Program area in the Loess Plateau, China, with the resulting dataset used to identify the underlying factors determining farmers' intention and behavior based on the structural equation model. The results show that the farmers' intention and behavior toward conserving ecological achievements were explained well by TPB. The farmers'behavior was significantly positively affected by their intention toward conserving ecological achievements, and their intention was significantly influenced by their attitude (positive or negative value of performance), the subjective norm (social pressure in engaging behavior), and perceived behavioral control (perceptions of their ability). The farmers' degree of support for PES programs and their recognition of environmental effects were the factors that most influenced the farmers' attitude. Pressure from neighbors was the most potent driver of the subjective norm. Meanwhile, perceptions of their ability to perform the behavior were the most potent factors affecting intention and it was mostly driven by the farmers' feelings toward environmental improvement and perceived ability (time and labor) to participate in ecological conservation. The drivers of attitude, subjective norm, and perceived behavioral control can be used by policy makers to direct farmers' intention and behavior toward conserving ecological achievements in fragile eco-environmentally areas through PES programs. Thus, this strategy can improve the sustainability of ecological and environmental restoration programs. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Socio-ecological perspective of older age life expectancy: income, gender inequality, and financial crisis in Europe.

PubMed

Kim, Jong In; Kim, Gukbin

2017-08-18

Population is aging rapidly in Europe. Older age life expectancy (OLE) can be influenced by country-level depth of credit information (DCI) as an indicator of financial crisis, gross national income (GNI) per capita, and gender inequality index (GII). These factors are key indicators of socio-ecological inequality. They can be used to develop strategies to reduce country-level health disparity. The objective of this study was to confirm the relationship between socio-ecological factors and OLE in Europe. Data were obtained from World Bank, WHO, and UN database for 34 Europe countries. Associations between socio-ecological factors and OLE were assessed with Pearson correlation coefficients and three regression models. These models assumed that appropriate changes in country-level strategies of healthy aging would produce changes in GNI per capital as personal perspective, GII in social environment perspective, and DCI in public policy perspective to implement socio-ecological changes. Hierarchal linear regression was used for final analysis. Although OLE (women and men) had significant negative correlation with GII (gender inequality index, r = - 0.798, p = 0.001), it had positive correlations with GNI (gross national income per capita, r = 0.834, p = 0.001) and DCI (depth of credit information index, r = 0.704, p = 0.001) levels caused by financial crisis. Higher levels GNI and DCI but lower GII were found to be predictors of OLE (women and men) (R 2  = 0.804, p < 0.001). Factors affecting older age life expectancy in Europe were identified from socio-ecological perspective. Socio-ecological indicators (GII, GNI, and DCI) in Europe appear to have a latent effect on OLE levels. Thus, country-level strategies of successful aging in Europe should target socio-ecological factors such as GII, GNI, and DCI value.

Ecological Approaches to Understanding Human Crowding.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Baron, Reuben M.

1979-01-01

Characteristics of the ecological approach to perception are presented. The affordance concept and its relevance is emphasized. Human crowding is discussed in affordance terms. There is a comparison given between present affordance analysis and ecological analysis. (Author/SA)

Invasive plants and their ecological strategies: Prediction and explanation of woody plant invasion in New England

USGS Publications Warehouse

Herron, P.M.; Martine, C.T.; Latimer, A.M.; Leicht-Young, S. A.

2007-01-01

Effective management of introduced species requires the early identification of species that pose a significant threat of becoming invasive. To better understand the invasive ecology of species in New England, USA, we compiled a character data set with which to compare non-native species that are known invaders to non-native species that are not currently known to be invasive. In contrast to previous biological trait-based models, we employed a Bayesian hierarchical analysis to identify sets of plant traits associated with invasiveness for each of three growth forms (vines, shrubs, and trees). The resulting models identify a suite of 'invasive traits' highlighting the ecology associated with invasiveness for each of three growth forms. The most effective predictors of invasiveness that emerged from our model were 'invasive elsewhere', 'fast growth rate', 'native latitudinal range', and 'growth form'. The contrast among growth forms was pronounced. For example, 'wind dispersal' was positively correlated with invasiveness in trees, but negatively correlated in shrubs and vines. The predictive model was able to correctly classify invasive plants 67% of the time (22/33), and non-invasive plants 95% of the time (204/215). A number of potential future invasive species in New England that deserve management consideration were identified. ?? 2007 The Authors.

Parthenogenesis through the ice ages: A biogeographic analysis of Caucasian rock lizards (genus Darevskia).

PubMed

Freitas, Susana; Rocha, Sara; Campos, João; Ahmadzadeh, Faraham; Corti, Claudia; Sillero, Neftali; Ilgaz, Çetin; Kumlutaş, Yusuf; Arakelyan, Marine; Harris, D James; Carretero, Miguel A

2016-09-01

Darevskia rock lizards include both sexual and parthenogenetic species, mostly distributed in the heterogeneous and ecologically diverse Caucasus. The parthenogenetic species originated via directional hybridogenesis, with only some of the sexual species known to serve as parentals. However, it remains unclear when and where these events happened and how many parental lineages were involved. A multilocus phylogeographic analysis was performed on the parthenogens D. unisexualis, D. bendimahiensis and D. uzzeli, and their putative maternal species D. raddei. Results show the parthenogenetic species all have relatively recent origins, approximately 200-70kyr ago, and at least three hybridization events were involved in their formation. Ecological niche models identify the region where hybridization events leading to the formation of D. unisexualis took place, namely in the northeast of the current distribution. Models also suggest that the sexual D. raddei might have undergone a habitat shift between the Last Interglacial and the Last Glacial Maximum. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Youth Development as Subjectified Subjectivity - a Dialectical-Ecological Model of Analysis.

PubMed

Pedersen, Sofie; Bang, Jytte

2016-09-01

The aim of this article is to shed light on how environmental standards in the life of youths influence the development of self. We propose the concept of 'subjectified subjectivity' to grasp these person-environment dialectics in a general form. By elaborating on these conceptual understandings of youth life, the article also seeks to understand young people from their own perspectives on life and from their developing life-perspectives, rather than from general categories. Based on one of the author's data from her study of young people in their transition to (and through the first year of) high school, we carry out an analysis of a 16-year old high school student and how her approach to beer, to beer drinking as a part of Danish high school life-style, and to herself changes over time. We suggest a dialectical-ecological model to analyze the dialectical and synthetic movements over time of the girl and her environments.

Urban Ecological Security Simulation and Prediction Using an Improved Cellular Automata (CA) Approach-A Case Study for the City of Wuhan in China.

PubMed

Gao, Yuan; Zhang, Chuanrong; He, Qingsong; Liu, Yaolin

2017-06-15

Ecological security is an important research topic, especially urban ecological security. As highly populated eco-systems, cities always have more fragile ecological environments. However, most of the research on urban ecological security in literature has focused on evaluating current or past status of the ecological environment. Very little literature has carried out simulation or prediction of future ecological security. In addition, there is even less literature exploring the urban ecological environment at a fine scale. To fill-in the literature gap, in this study we simulated and predicted urban ecological security at a fine scale (district level) using an improved Cellular Automata (CA) approach. First we used the pressure-state-response (PSR) method based on grid-scale data to evaluate urban ecological security. Then, based on the evaluation results, we imported the geographically weighted regression (GWR) concept into the CA model to simulate and predict urban ecological security. We applied the improved CA approach in a case study-simulating and predicting urban ecological security for the city of Wuhan in Central China. By comparing the simulated ecological security values from 2010 using the improved CA model to the actual ecological security values of 2010, we got a relatively high value of the kappa coefficient, which indicates that this CA model can simulate or predict well future development of ecological security in Wuhan. Based on the prediction results for 2020, we made some policy recommendations for each district in Wuhan.

Distribution of phytoplankton functional types in high-nitrate, low-chlorophyll waters in a new diagnostic ecological indicator model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Palacz, A. P.; St. John, M. A.; Brewin, R. J. W.; Hirata, T.; Gregg, W. W.

2013-11-01

Modeling and monitoring plankton functional types (PFTs) is challenged by the insufficient amount of field measurements of ground truths in both plankton models and bio-optical algorithms. In this study, we combine remote sensing data and a dynamic plankton model to simulate an ecologically sound spatial and temporal distribution of phyto-PFTs. We apply an innovative ecological indicator approach to modeling PFTs and focus on resolving the question of diatom-coccolithophore coexistence in the subpolar high-nitrate and low-chlorophyll regions. We choose an artificial neural network as our modeling framework because it has the potential to interpret complex nonlinear interactions governing complex adaptive systems, of which marine ecosystems are a prime example. Using ecological indicators that fulfill the criteria of measurability, sensitivity and specificity, we demonstrate that our diagnostic model correctly interprets some basic ecological rules similar to ones emerging from dynamic models. Our time series highlight a dynamic phyto-PFT community composition in all high-latitude areas and indicate seasonal coexistence of diatoms and coccolithophores. This observation, though consistent with in situ and remote sensing measurements, has so far not been captured by state-of-the-art dynamic models, which struggle to resolve this "paradox of the plankton". We conclude that an ecological indicator approach is useful for ecological modeling of phytoplankton and potentially higher trophic levels. Finally, we speculate that it could serve as a powerful tool in advancing ecosystem-based management of marine resources.

Distribution of phytoplankton functional types in high-nitrate low-chlorophyll waters in a new diagnostic ecological indicator model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Palacz, A. P.; St. John, M. A.; Brewin, R. J. W.; Hirata, T.; Gregg, W. W.

2013-05-01

Modeling and monitoring plankton functional types (PFTs) is challenged by insufficient amount of field measurements to ground-truth both plankton models and bio-optical algorithms. In this study, we combine remote sensing data and a dynamic plankton model to simulate an ecologically-sound spatial and temporal distribution of phyto-PFTs. We apply an innovative ecological indicator approach to modeling PFTs, and focus on resolving the question of diatom-coccolithophore co-existence in the subpolar high-nitrate and low-chlorophyll regions. We choose an artificial neural network as our modeling framework because it has the potential to interpret complex nonlinear interactions governing complex adaptive systems, of which marine ecosystems are a prime example. Using ecological indicators that fulfill the criteria of measurability, sensitivity and specificity, we demonstrate that our diagnostic model correctly interprets some basic ecological rules similar to ones emerging from dynamic models. Our time series highlight a dynamic phyto-PFT community composition in all high latitude areas, and indicate seasonal co-existence of diatoms and coccolithophores. This observation, though consistent with in situ and remote sensing measurements, was so far not captured by state-of-the-art dynamic models which struggle to resolve this "paradox of the plankton". We conclude that an ecological indicator approach is useful for ecological modeling of phytoplankton and potentially higher trophic levels. Finally, we speculate that it could serve as a powerful tool in advancing ecosystem-based management of marine resources.

The Ecosystem Concept and Linking Models of Physical-Chemical Processes to Ecological Responses: Introduction and Annotated Bibliography

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-07-01

Schneider, D. C. 1994. Quantitative ecology. Spatial and temporal scaling. Academic Press. Shugart, H. H. 1990. Ecological models and the ecotone . In: The...ecology and management of aquatic-terrestrial ecotones . Man and the biosphere series, Vol. 4. ed. R. J. Naiman and H. Decamps, 23-36. Paris, France

Ecologically-focused Calibration of Hydrological Models for Environmental Flow Applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adams, S. K.; Bledsoe, B. P.

2015-12-01

Hydrologic alteration resulting from watershed urbanization is a common cause of aquatic ecosystem degradation. Developing environmental flow criteria for urbanizing watersheds requires quantitative flow-ecology relationships that describe biological responses to streamflow alteration. Ideally, gaged flow data are used to develop flow-ecology relationships; however, biological monitoring sites are frequently ungaged. For these ungaged locations, hydrologic models must be used to predict streamflow characteristics through calibration and testing at gaged sites, followed by extrapolation to ungaged sites. Physically-based modeling of rainfall-runoff response has frequently utilized "best overall fit" calibration criteria, such as the Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE), that do not necessarily focus on specific aspects of the flow regime relevant to biota of interest. This study investigates the utility of employing flow characteristics known a priori to influence regional biological endpoints as "ecologically-focused" calibration criteria compared to traditional, "best overall fit" criteria. For this study, 19 continuous HEC-HMS 4.0 models were created in coastal southern California and calibrated to hourly USGS streamflow gages with nearby biological monitoring sites using one "best overall fit" and three "ecologically-focused" criteria: NSE, Richards-Baker Flashiness Index (RBI), percent of time when the flow is < 1 cfs (%<1), and a Combined Calibration (RBI and %<1). Calibrated models were compared using calibration accuracy, environmental flow metric reproducibility, and the strength of flow-ecology relationships. Results indicate that "ecologically-focused" criteria can be calibrated with high accuracy and may provide stronger flow-ecology relationships than "best overall fit" criteria, especially when multiple "ecologically-focused" criteria are used in concert, despite inabilities to accurately reproduce additional types of ecological flow metrics to which the models are not explicitly calibrated.

Ecological Determinants of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (H5N1) Outbreaks in Bangladesh

PubMed Central

Ahmed, Syed S. U.; Ersbøll, Annette K.; Biswas, Paritosh K.; Christensen, Jens P.; Hannan, Abu S. M. A.; Toft, Nils

2012-01-01

Background The agro-ecology and poultry husbandry of the south Asian and south-east Asian countries share common features, however, with noticeable differences. Hence, the ecological determinants associated with risk of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI-H5N1) outbreaks are expected to differ between Bangladesh and e.g., Thailand and Vietnam. The primary aim of the current study was to establish ecological determinants associated with the risk of HPAI-H5N1 outbreaks at subdistrict level in Bangladesh. The secondary aim was to explore the performance of two different statistical modeling approaches for unmeasured spatially correlated variation. Methodology/Principal Findings An ecological study at subdistrict level in Bangladesh was performed with 138 subdistricts with HPAI-H5N1 outbreaks during 2007–2008, and 326 subdistricts with no outbreaks. The association between ecological determinants and HPAI-H5N1 outbreaks was examined using a generalized linear mixed model. Spatial clustering of the ecological data was modeled using 1) an intrinsic conditional autoregressive (ICAR) model at subdistrict level considering their first order neighbors, and 2) a multilevel (ML) model with subdistricts nested within districts. Ecological determinants significantly associated with risk of HPAI-H5N1 outbreaks at subdistrict level were migratory birds' staging areas, river network, household density, literacy rate, poultry density, live bird markets, and highway network. Predictive risk maps were derived based on the resulting models. The resulting models indicate that the ML model absorbed some of the covariate effect of the ICAR model because of the neighbor structure implied in the two different models. Conclusions/Significance The study identified a new set of ecological determinants related to river networks, migratory birds' staging areas and literacy rate in addition to already known risk factors, and clarified that the generalized concept of free grazing duck and duck-rice cultivation interacted ecology are not significant determinants for Bangladesh. These findings will refine current understanding of the HPAI-H5N1 epidemiology in Bangladesh. PMID:22470496

Modelling consequences of change in biodiversity and ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This chapter offers an assessment of the rapidly changing landscape of methods assessing and forecasting the benefits that people receive from nature and how these benefits are shaped by institutions and various anthropogenic assets. There has been an explosion of activity in understanding and modeling the benefits that people receive from nature, and this explosion has provided a diversity of approaches that are both complementary and contradictory. However, there remain major gaps in what current models can do. They are not well suited to estimate most types of benefits at national, regional, or global scales. they are focused on decision analysis, but have not focused on implementation, learning, or dialogue. This hap in particular means that current models are not well suited to bridging among multiple knowledge systems, however, there are initial efforts made towards this goal. Furthermore, while participatory social-ecological scenarios are able to bridge multiple knowledge systems in their assessment and analysis of multiple ecosystem series, the social-ecological scenarios community is fragmented and not well connected. Consequently, IPBES has an excellent knowledge base to build upon, but a real investment in building a more integrated modeling and scenarios community of practice is needed to produce a more complete and useful toolbox of approaches to meet the needs of IPBES assessment and other assessment of nature benefits. This Chapter describes

Refining climate change projections for organisms with low dispersal abilities: a case study of the Caspian whip snake.

PubMed

Sahlean, Tiberiu C; Gherghel, Iulian; Papeş, Monica; Strugariu, Alexandru; Zamfirescu, Ştefan R

2014-01-01

Climate warming is one of the most important threats to biodiversity. Ectothermic organisms such as amphibians and reptiles are especially vulnerable as climatic conditions affect them directly. Ecological niche models (ENMs) are increasingly popular in ecological studies, but several drawbacks exist, including the limited ability to account for the dispersal potential of the species. In this study, we use ENMs to explore the impact of global climate change on the Caspian whip snake (Dolichophis caspius) as model for organisms with low dispersal abilities and to quantify dispersal to novel areas using GIS techniques. Models generated using Maxent 3.3.3 k and GARP for current distribution were projected on future climatic scenarios. A cost-distance analysis was run in ArcGIS 10 using geomorphological features, ecological conditions, and human footprint as "costs" to dispersal of the species to obtain a Maximum Dispersal Range (MDR) estimate. All models developed were statistically significant (P<0.05) and recovered the currently known distribution of D. caspius. Models projected on future climatic conditions using Maxent predicted a doubling of suitable climatic area, while GARP predicted a more conservative expansion. Both models agreed on an expansion of suitable area northwards, with minor decreases at the southern distribution limit. The MDR area calculated using the Maxent model represented a third of the total area of the projected model. The MDR based on GARP models recovered only about 20% of the total area of the projected model. Thus, incorporating measures of species' dispersal abilities greatly reduced estimated area of potential future distributions.

REACH-ER: a tool to evaluate river basin remediation measures for contaminants at the catchment scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Griensven, Ann; Haest, Pieter Jan; Broekx, Steven; Seuntjens, Piet; Campling, Paul; Ducos, Geraldine; Blaha, Ludek; Slobodnik, Jaroslav

2010-05-01

The European Union (EU) adopted the Water Framework Directive (WFD) in 2000 ensuring that all aquatic ecosystems meet ‘good status' by 2015. However, it is a major challenge for river basin managers to meet this requirement in river basins with a high population density as well as intensive agricultural and industrial activities. The EU financed AQUAREHAB project (FP7) specifically examines the ecological and economic impact of innovative rehabilitation technologies for multi-pressured degraded water bodies. For this purpose, a generic collaborative management tool ‘REACH-ER' is being developed that can be used by stakeholders, citizens and water managers to evaluate the ecological and economical effects of different remedial actions on waterbodies. The tool is built using databases from large scale models simulating the hydrological dynamics of the river basing and sub-basins, the costs of the measures and the effectiveness of the measures in terms of ecological impact. Knowledge rules are used to describe the relationships between these data in order to compute the flux concentrations or to compute the effectiveness of measures. The management tool specifically addresses nitrate pollution and pollution by organic micropollutants. Detailed models are also used to predict the effectiveness of site remedial technologies using readily available global data. Rules describing ecological impacts are derived from ecotoxicological data for (mixtures of) specific contaminants (msPAF) and ecological indices relating effects to the presence of certain contaminants. Rules describing the cost-effectiveness of measures are derived from linear programming models identifying the least-cost combination of abatement measures to satisfy multi-pollutant reduction targets and from multi-criteria analysis.

End to End Digitisation and Analysis of Three-Dimensional Coral Models, from Communities to Corallites.

PubMed

Gutierrez-Heredia, Luis; Benzoni, Francesca; Murphy, Emma; Reynaud, Emmanuel G

2016-01-01

Coral reefs hosts nearly 25% of all marine species and provide food sources for half a billion people worldwide while only a very small percentage have been surveyed. Advances in technology and processing along with affordable underwater cameras and Internet availability gives us the possibility to provide tools and softwares to survey entire coral reefs. Holistic ecological analyses of corals require not only the community view (10s to 100s of meters), but also the single colony analysis as well as corallite identification. As corals are three-dimensional, classical approaches to determine percent cover and structural complexity across spatial scales are inefficient, time-consuming and limited to experts. Here we propose an end-to-end approach to estimate these parameters using low-cost equipment (GoPro, Canon) and freeware (123D Catch, Meshmixer and Netfabb), allowing every community to participate in surveys and monitoring of their coral ecosystem. We demonstrate our approach on 9 species of underwater colonies in ranging size and morphology. 3D models of underwater colonies, fresh samples and bleached skeletons with high quality texture mapping and detailed topographic morphology were produced, and Surface Area and Volume measurements (parameters widely used for ecological and coral health studies) were calculated and analysed. Moreover, we integrated collected sample models with micro-photogrammetry models of individual corallites to aid identification and colony and polyp scale analysis.

End to End Digitisation and Analysis of Three-Dimensional Coral Models, from Communities to Corallites

PubMed Central

Gutierrez-Heredia, Luis; Benzoni, Francesca; Murphy, Emma; Reynaud, Emmanuel G.

2016-01-01

Coral reefs hosts nearly 25% of all marine species and provide food sources for half a billion people worldwide while only a very small percentage have been surveyed. Advances in technology and processing along with affordable underwater cameras and Internet availability gives us the possibility to provide tools and softwares to survey entire coral reefs. Holistic ecological analyses of corals require not only the community view (10s to 100s of meters), but also the single colony analysis as well as corallite identification. As corals are three-dimensional, classical approaches to determine percent cover and structural complexity across spatial scales are inefficient, time-consuming and limited to experts. Here we propose an end-to-end approach to estimate these parameters using low-cost equipment (GoPro, Canon) and freeware (123D Catch, Meshmixer and Netfabb), allowing every community to participate in surveys and monitoring of their coral ecosystem. We demonstrate our approach on 9 species of underwater colonies in ranging size and morphology. 3D models of underwater colonies, fresh samples and bleached skeletons with high quality texture mapping and detailed topographic morphology were produced, and Surface Area and Volume measurements (parameters widely used for ecological and coral health studies) were calculated and analysed. Moreover, we integrated collected sample models with micro-photogrammetry models of individual corallites to aid identification and colony and polyp scale analysis. PMID:26901845

Study on Rural Ecological Conservation and Health Care Plan to Respond Aging Population

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Jing Yu; Fu, Fei

2018-05-01

The problem of aging is a problem that the society must face now. Under the rapid development and expansion of modern cities, the traditional village which is the back garden of the city depends on its advantages and characteristics of the farmland water network ecological infrastructure to develop the health planning. It is an important way to develop economic and ecological protection. However, the study of this direction is still in its infancy in china. This paper attempts to establish an adaptive POE evaluation model for elderly open space through the investigation and analysis, and further explore the physiological and psychological needs of the elderly for the environment. Based on the above survey data, this paper studies the planning and planning strategy of the health industry in the natural villages in the suburbs of Dujiangyan. From the point of view of sustainable development, it is more effective to protect and develop the ecological infrastructure of villages.

Using network analysis to explore if professional opinions on Japanese encephalitis risk factors in Nepal reflect a socio-ecological system perspective.

PubMed

Hecker, Kent; El Kurdi, Syliva; Joshi, Durgadatt; Stephen, Craig

2013-12-01

Japanese encephalitis (JE) is the leading cause of viral encephalitis in Asia and a significant public health problem in Nepal. Its epidemiology is influenced by factors affecting its amplifying hosts (pigs), vectors (mosquitoes), and dead-end hosts (including people). While most control efforts target reduced susceptibility to infection either by vaccination of people or pigs or by reduced exposure to mosquitoes; the economic reality of Nepal makes it challenging to implement standard JE control measures. An ecohealth approach has been nominated as a way to assist in finding and prioritizing locally relevant strategies for JE control that may be viable, feasible, and acceptable. We sought to understand if Nepalese experts responsible for JE management conceived of its epidemiology in terms of a socio-ecological system to determine if they would consider ecohealth approaches. Network analysis suggested that they did not conceive JE risk as a product of a socio-ecological system. Traditional proximal risk factors of pigs, mosquitoes, and vaccination predominated experts' conception of JE risk. People seeking to encourage an ecohealth approach or social change models to JE management in Nepal may benefit from adopting social marketing concepts to encourage and empower local experts to examine JE from a socio-ecological perspective.

Potential ecological risk assessment and prediction of soil heavy-metal pollution around coal gangue dump

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, X.; Lu, W. X.; Zhao, H. Q.; Yang, Q. C.; Yang, Z. P.

2014-06-01

The aim of the present study is to evaluate the potential ecological risk and trend of soil heavy-metal pollution around a coal gangue dump in Jilin Province (Northeast China). The concentrations of Cd, Pb, Cu, Cr and Zn were monitored by inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS). The potential ecological risk index method developed by Hakanson (1980) was employed to assess the potential risk of heavy-metal pollution. The potential ecological risk in the order of ER(Cd) > ER(Pb) > ER(Cu) > ER(Cr) > ER(Zn) have been obtained, which showed that Cd was the most important factor leading to risk. Based on the Cd pollution history, the cumulative acceleration and cumulative rate of Cd were estimated, then the fixed number of years exceeding the standard prediction model was established, which was used to predict the pollution trend of Cd under the accelerated accumulation mode and the uniform mode. Pearson correlation analysis and correspondence analysis are employed to identify the sources of heavy metals and the relationship between sampling points and variables. These findings provided some useful insights for making appropriate management strategies to prevent or decrease heavy-metal pollution around a coal gangue dump in the Yangcaogou coal mine and other similar areas elsewhere.

Potential ecological risk assessment and prediction of soil heavy metal pollution around coal gangue dump

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, X.; Lu, W. X.; Yang, Q. C.; Yang, Z. P.

2014-03-01

Aim of the present study is to evaluate the potential ecological risk and predict the trend of soil heavy metal pollution around a~coal gangue dump in Jilin Province (Northeast China). The concentrations of Cd, Pb, Cu, Cr and Zn were monitored by inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS). The potential ecological risk index method developed by Hakanson (1980) was employed to assess the potential risk of heavy metal pollution. The potential ecological risk in an order of E(Cd) > E(Pb) > E(Cu) > E(Cr) > E(Zn) have been obtained, which showed that Cd was the most important factor led to risk. Based on the Cd pollution history, the cumulative acceleration and cumulative rate of Cd were estimated, and the fixed number of years exceeding standard prediction model was established, which was used to predict the pollution trend of Cd under the accelerated accumulation mode and the uniform mode. Pearson correlation analysis and correspondence analysis are employed to identify the sources of heavy metal, and the relationship between sampling points and variables. These findings provide some useful insights for making appropriate management strategies to prevent and decrease heavy metal pollution around coal gangue dump in Yangcaogou coal mine and other similar areas elsewhere.

Independent evolution of the sexes promotes amphibian diversification.

PubMed

De Lisle, Stephen P; Rowe, Locke

2015-03-22

Classic ecological theory predicts that the evolution of sexual dimorphism constrains diversification by limiting morphospace available for speciation. Alternatively, sexual selection may lead to the evolution of reproductive isolation and increased diversification. We test contrasting predictions of these hypotheses by examining the relationship between sexual dimorphism and diversification in amphibians. Our analysis shows that the evolution of sexual size dimorphism (SSD) is associated with increased diversification and speciation, contrary to the ecological theory. Further, this result is unlikely to be explained by traditional sexual selection models because variation in amphibian SSD is unlikely to be driven entirely by sexual selection. We suggest that relaxing a central assumption of classic ecological models-that the sexes share a common adaptive landscape-leads to the alternative hypothesis that independent evolution of the sexes may promote diversification. Once the constraints of sexual conflict are relaxed, the sexes can explore morphospace that would otherwise be inaccessible. Consistent with this novel hypothesis, the evolution of SSD in amphibians is associated with reduced current extinction threat status, and an historical reduction in extinction rate. Our work reconciles conflicting predictions from ecological and evolutionary theory and illustrates that the ability of the sexes to evolve independently is associated with a spectacular vertebrate radiation. © 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Ecologic and sociodemographic risk determinants for dengue transmission in urban areas in Thailand.

PubMed

Koyadun, Surachart; Butraporn, Piyarat; Kittayapong, Pattamaporn

2012-01-01

This study analyzed the association between household-level ecologic and individual-level sociodemographic determinants and dengue transmission in urban areas of Chachoengsao province, Thailand. The ecologic and sociodemographic variables were examined by univariate analysis and multivariate logistic regression. In the ecologic model, dengue risk was related to households situated in the ecotope of residential mixed with commercial and densely populated urban residential areas (RCDENPURA) (aOR = 2.23, P = 0.009), high historical dengue risk area (aOR = 2.06, P < 0.001), and presence of household window screens (aOR = 1.62, P = 0.023). In the sociodemographic model, the dengue risk was related to householders aged >45 years (aOR = 3.24, P = 0.003), secondary and higher educational degrees (aOR = 2.33, P = 0.013), household members >4 persons (aOR = 2.01, P = 0.02), and community effort in environmental management by clean-up campaign (aOR = 1.91, P = 0.035). It is possible that the preventive measures were positively correlated with dengue risk because these activities were generally carried out in particular households or communities following dengue experiences or dengue outbreaks. Interestingly, the ecotope of RCDENPURA and high historical dengue risk area appeared to be very good predictors of dengue incidences.

Ecologic and Sociodemographic Risk Determinants for Dengue Transmission in Urban Areas in Thailand

PubMed Central

Koyadun, Surachart; Butraporn, Piyarat; Kittayapong, Pattamaporn

2012-01-01

This study analyzed the association between household-level ecologic and individual-level sociodemographic determinants and dengue transmission in urban areas of Chachoengsao province, Thailand. The ecologic and sociodemographic variables were examined by univariate analysis and multivariate logistic regression. In the ecologic model, dengue risk was related to households situated in the ecotope of residential mixed with commercial and densely populated urban residential areas (RCDENPURA) (aOR = 2.23, P = 0.009), high historical dengue risk area (aOR = 2.06, P < 0.001), and presence of household window screens (aOR = 1.62, P = 0.023). In the sociodemographic model, the dengue risk was related to householders aged >45 years (aOR = 3.24, P = 0.003), secondary and higher educational degrees (aOR = 2.33, P = 0.013), household members >4 persons (aOR = 2.01, P = 0.02), and community effort in environmental management by clean-up campaign (aOR = 1.91, P = 0.035). It is possible that the preventive measures were positively correlated with dengue risk because these activities were generally carried out in particular households or communities following dengue experiences or dengue outbreaks. Interestingly, the ecotope of RCDENPURA and high historical dengue risk area appeared to be very good predictors of dengue incidences. PMID:23056042

The basis function approach for modeling autocorrelation in ecological data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hefley, Trevor J.; Broms, Kristin M.; Brost, Brian M.; Buderman, Frances E.; Kay, Shannon L.; Scharf, Henry; Tipton, John; Williams, Perry J.; Hooten, Mevin B.

2017-01-01

Analyzing ecological data often requires modeling the autocorrelation created by spatial and temporal processes. Many seemingly disparate statistical methods used to account for autocorrelation can be expressed as regression models that include basis functions. Basis functions also enable ecologists to modify a wide range of existing ecological models in order to account for autocorrelation, which can improve inference and predictive accuracy. Furthermore, understanding the properties of basis functions is essential for evaluating the fit of spatial or time-series models, detecting a hidden form of collinearity, and analyzing large data sets. We present important concepts and properties related to basis functions and illustrate several tools and techniques ecologists can use when modeling autocorrelation in ecological data.

Mayan Children's Creation of Learning Ecologies by Initiative and Cooperative Action.

PubMed

de León, Lourdes

2015-01-01

This chapter examines Mayan children's initiatives in creating their own learning environments in collaboration with others as they engage in culturally relevant endeavors of family and community life. To this end, I carry out a fine-grained ethnographic and linguistic analysis of the interactional emergence of learning ecologies. Erickson defines learning ecology as a socioecological system where participants mutually influence one another through verbal and nonverbal actions, as well as through other forms of semiotic communication (2010, 254). In analyzing learning ecologies, I adopt a "theory of action" approach, taking into account multimodal communication (e.g., talk, gesture, gaze, body positioning), participants' sociospatial organization, embodied action, objects, tools, and other culturally relevant materials brought together to build action (Goodwin, 2000, 2013; Hutchins, 1995). I use microethnographic analysis (Erickson, 1992) to bring to the surface central aspects of children's agentive roles in learning through "cooperative actions" (Goodwin, 2013) and "hands-on" experience (Ingold, 2007) the skills of competent members of their community. I examine three distinct Learning Ecologies created by children's initiatives among the Mayan children that I observed: (i) children requesting guidance to collaborate in a task, (ii) older children working on their own initiative with subsequent monitoring and correction from competent members, and (iii) children with near competence in a task with occasional monitoring and no guidance. I argue that these findings enrich and add power to models of family- and community-based learning such as Learning by Observing and Pitching In (Rogoff, 2014). © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Special Issue: Ecological Modelling Global Conference 2016: 20th Biennial ISEM Conference, 8 - 12 May 2016, Towson, Maryland, USA.

EPA Science Inventory

This Special Issue contains a collection of papers presented at The Ecological Modelling Global Conference 2016: 20th Biennial International Society of Ecological Modelling (ISEM) Conference which was held at Towson University, Maryland, United States. Over the past 40+ years, E...

Increasing the reliability of ecological models using modern software engineering techniques

Treesearch

Robert M. Scheller; Brian R. Sturtevant; Eric J. Gustafson; Brendan C. Ward; David J. Mladenoff

2009-01-01

Modern software development techniques are largely unknown to ecologists. Typically, ecological models and other software tools are developed for limited research purposes, and additional capabilities are added later, usually in an ad hoc manner. Modern software engineering techniques can substantially increase scientific rigor and confidence in ecological models and...

Activity-specific ecological niche models for planning reintroductions of California condors (Gymnogyps californianus)

Treesearch

Jesse D’Elia; Susan M. Haig; Matthew Johnson; Richard Young; Bruce G. Marcot

2015-01-01

Ecological niche models can be a useful tool to identify candidate reintroduction sites for endangered species but have been infrequently used for this purpose. In this paper, we (1) develop activity-specific ecological niche models (nesting, roosting, and feeding) for the critically endangered California condor (Gymnogyps californianus) to aid in...

Simulation modeling of forest landscape disturbances: An overview

Treesearch

Ajith H. Perera; Brian R. Sturtevant; Lisa J. Buse

2015-01-01

Quantification of ecological processes and formulation of the mathematical expressions that describe those processes in computer models has been a cornerstone of landscape ecology research and its application. Consequently, the body of publications on simulation models in landscape ecology has grown rapidly in recent decades. This trend is also evident in the subfield...

Ecological Momentary Assessments and Automated Time Series Analysis to Promote Tailored Health Care: A Proof-of-Principle Study.

PubMed

van der Krieke, Lian; Emerencia, Ando C; Bos, Elisabeth H; Rosmalen, Judith Gm; Riese, Harriëtte; Aiello, Marco; Sytema, Sjoerd; de Jonge, Peter

2015-08-07

Health promotion can be tailored by combining ecological momentary assessments (EMA) with time series analysis. This combined method allows for studying the temporal order of dynamic relationships among variables, which may provide concrete indications for intervention. However, application of this method in health care practice is hampered because analyses are conducted manually and advanced statistical expertise is required. This study aims to show how this limitation can be overcome by introducing automated vector autoregressive modeling (VAR) of EMA data and to evaluate its feasibility through comparisons with results of previously published manual analyses. We developed a Web-based open source application, called AutoVAR, which automates time series analyses of EMA data and provides output that is intended to be interpretable by nonexperts. The statistical technique we used was VAR. AutoVAR tests and evaluates all possible VAR models within a given combinatorial search space and summarizes their results, thereby replacing the researcher's tasks of conducting the analysis, making an informed selection of models, and choosing the best model. We compared the output of AutoVAR to the output of a previously published manual analysis (n=4). An illustrative example consisting of 4 analyses was provided. Compared to the manual output, the AutoVAR output presents similar model characteristics and statistical results in terms of the Akaike information criterion, the Bayesian information criterion, and the test statistic of the Granger causality test. Results suggest that automated analysis and interpretation of times series is feasible. Compared to a manual procedure, the automated procedure is more robust and can save days of time. These findings may pave the way for using time series analysis for health promotion on a larger scale. AutoVAR was evaluated using the results of a previously conducted manual analysis. Analysis of additional datasets is needed in order to validate and refine the application for general use.

Ecological Momentary Assessments and Automated Time Series Analysis to Promote Tailored Health Care: A Proof-of-Principle Study

PubMed Central

Emerencia, Ando C; Bos, Elisabeth H; Rosmalen, Judith GM; Riese, Harriëtte; Aiello, Marco; Sytema, Sjoerd; de Jonge, Peter

2015-01-01

Background Health promotion can be tailored by combining ecological momentary assessments (EMA) with time series analysis. This combined method allows for studying the temporal order of dynamic relationships among variables, which may provide concrete indications for intervention. However, application of this method in health care practice is hampered because analyses are conducted manually and advanced statistical expertise is required. Objective This study aims to show how this limitation can be overcome by introducing automated vector autoregressive modeling (VAR) of EMA data and to evaluate its feasibility through comparisons with results of previously published manual analyses. Methods We developed a Web-based open source application, called AutoVAR, which automates time series analyses of EMA data and provides output that is intended to be interpretable by nonexperts. The statistical technique we used was VAR. AutoVAR tests and evaluates all possible VAR models within a given combinatorial search space and summarizes their results, thereby replacing the researcher’s tasks of conducting the analysis, making an informed selection of models, and choosing the best model. We compared the output of AutoVAR to the output of a previously published manual analysis (n=4). Results An illustrative example consisting of 4 analyses was provided. Compared to the manual output, the AutoVAR output presents similar model characteristics and statistical results in terms of the Akaike information criterion, the Bayesian information criterion, and the test statistic of the Granger causality test. Conclusions Results suggest that automated analysis and interpretation of times series is feasible. Compared to a manual procedure, the automated procedure is more robust and can save days of time. These findings may pave the way for using time series analysis for health promotion on a larger scale. AutoVAR was evaluated using the results of a previously conducted manual analysis. Analysis of additional datasets is needed in order to validate and refine the application for general use. PMID:26254160

Integrated Evaluation of Coupling Coordination for Land Use Change and Ecological Security: A Case Study in Wuhan City of Hubei Province, China

PubMed Central

Wang, Zhanqi; Zhang, Hongwei

2017-01-01

As land resources and ecosystems provide necessary materials and conditions for human development, land use change and ecological security play increasingly important roles in sustainable development. This study aims to reveal the mutual-influence and interaction between land use change and ecological security in Wuhan, based on the coupling coordination degree model. As such, it provides strategies for the achievement of the synchronous and coordinated development of urbanization and ecological security. The results showed that, during the period from 2006 to 2012, the size of built-up area in Wuhan increased to 26.16%, and that all the other types of land use reduced due to the urbanization process, which appeared to be the main driving force of land use change. The ecological security in Wuhan has been improving as a whole although it was somewhat held back from 2006 to 2008 due to the rapid growth of built-up area. The coupling coordination analysis revealed that the relationship between built-up area and ecological security was more coordinated after 2008. The results can provide feasible recommendations for land use management and environmental protection from the viewpoint of coordinated development. To achieve sustainable development from economic and ecological perspective, policy makers should control the rate of urban expansion and exert more effort on intensive land use, clean energy development and emission reduction. PMID:29165365

Integrated Evaluation of Coupling Coordination for Land Use Change and Ecological Security: A Case Study in Wuhan City of Hubei Province, China.

PubMed

Chai, Ji; Wang, Zhanqi; Zhang, Hongwei

2017-11-22

As land resources and ecosystems provide necessary materials and conditions for human development, land use change and ecological security play increasingly important roles in sustainable development. This study aims to reveal the mutual-influence and interaction between land use change and ecological security in Wuhan, based on the coupling coordination degree model. As such, it provides strategies for the achievement of the synchronous and coordinated development of urbanization and ecological security. The results showed that, during the period from 2006 to 2012, the size of built-up area in Wuhan increased to 26.16%, and that all the other types of land use reduced due to the urbanization process, which appeared to be the main driving force of land use change. The ecological security in Wuhan has been improving as a whole although it was somewhat held back from 2006 to 2008 due to the rapid growth of built-up area. The coupling coordination analysis revealed that the relationship between built-up area and ecological security was more coordinated after 2008. The results can provide feasible recommendations for land use management and environmental protection from the viewpoint of coordinated development. To achieve sustainable development from economic and ecological perspective, policy makers should control the rate of urban expansion and exert more effort on intensive land use, clean energy development and emission reduction.

Ecological risk assessment for Mather Air Force Base, California: Phase 1, screening assessment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Meyers-Schoene, L.; Fischer, N.T.; Rabe, J.J.

Mather Air Force Base (AFB) is among the numerous facilities scheduled for closure under the US Air Force (USAF) Installation Restoration Program (IRP). A component of the Mather AFB IRP is to prepare risk assessments for each of the chemically contaminated sites. Because no previous ecological risk related studies have been conducted on Mather AFB, the authors proposed a phased approach to assessing ecological risks at the base. Phase 1 consisted of baseline ecological surveys that collected data over a 12-month period. In addition, benchmark screening criteria were used in conjunction with modeling results that utilized measured concentrations of chemicalmore » analytes in abiotic samples. Phase 2 may consist of the collection of more site-specific data and toxicity testing, if warranted by the Phase 1 screening analysis. This approach was in agreement with the USAF`s ecological risk assessment guidance and met the approval of the Air Force and USEPA Region 9. The authors found the use of established and derived screening values to effectively aid in the focusing of the ecological risk assessment on those chemicals most likely to be hazardous to ecological receptors at the base. Disadvantages in the use of screening values include the uncertainties associated with the conservative assumptions inherent in the derivation of benchmark values and the difficulty in extrapolating from laboratory determined benchmark values to impacts in the field.« less

Combining functional weed ecology and crop stable isotope ratios to identify cultivation intensity: a comparison of cereal production regimes in Haute Provence, France and Asturias, Spain.

PubMed

Bogaard, Amy; Hodgson, John; Nitsch, Erika; Jones, Glynis; Styring, Amy; Diffey, Charlotte; Pouncett, John; Herbig, Christoph; Charles, Michael; Ertuğ, Füsun; Tugay, Osman; Filipovic, Dragana; Fraser, Rebecca

This investigation combines two independent methods of identifying crop growing conditions and husbandry practices-functional weed ecology and crop stable carbon and nitrogen isotope analysis-in order to assess their potential for inferring the intensity of past cereal production systems using archaeobotanical assemblages. Present-day organic cereal farming in Haute Provence, France features crop varieties adapted to low-nutrient soils managed through crop rotation, with little to no manuring. Weed quadrat survey of 60 crop field transects in this region revealed that floristic variation primarily reflects geographical differences. Functional ecological weed data clearly distinguish the Provence fields from those surveyed in a previous study of intensively managed spelt wheat in Asturias, north-western Spain: as expected, weed ecological data reflect higher soil fertility and disturbance in Asturias. Similarly, crop stable nitrogen isotope values distinguish between intensive manuring in Asturias and long-term cultivation with minimal manuring in Haute Provence. The new model of cereal cultivation intensity based on weed ecology and crop isotope values in Haute Provence and Asturias was tested through application to two other present-day regimes, successfully identifying a high-intensity regime in the Sighisoara region, Romania, and low-intensity production in Kastamonu, Turkey. Application of this new model to Neolithic archaeobotanical assemblages in central Europe suggests that early farming tended to be intensive, and likely incorporated manuring, but also exhibited considerable variation, providing a finer grained understanding of cultivation intensity than previously available.

Error and Uncertainty Analysis for Ecological Modeling and Simulation

DTIC Science & Technology

2001-12-01

management (LRAM) accounting for environmental, training, and economic factors. In the ELVS methodology, soil erosion status is used as a quantitative...Monte-Carlo approach. The optimization is realized through economic functions or on decision constraints, such as, unit sample cost, number of samples... nitrate flux to the Gulf of Mexico. Nature (Brief Communication) 414: 166-167. (Uncertainty analysis done with SERDP software) Gertner, G., G

Agricultural non-point source pollution management in a reservoir watershed based on ecological network analysis of soil nitrogen cycling.

PubMed

Xu, Wen; Cai, Yanpeng; Rong, Qiangqiang; Yang, Zhifeng; Li, Chunhui; Wang, Xuan

2018-03-01

The Miyun Reservoir plays a pivotal role in providing drinking water for the city of Beijing. In this research, ecological network analysis and scenario analysis were integrated to explore soil nitrogen cycling of chestnut and Chinese pine forests in the upper basin of the Miyun Reservoir, as well as to seek favorable fertilization modes to reduce agricultural non-point source pollution. Ecological network analysis results showed that (1) the turnover time was 0.04 to 0.37 year in the NH 4 + compartment and were 15.78 to 138.36 years in the organic N compartment; (2) the Finn cycling index and the ratio of indirect to direct flow were 0.73 and 11.92 for the chestnut forest model, respectively. Those of the Chinese pine forest model were 0.88 and 29.23, respectively; and (3) in the chestnut forest model, NO 3 - accounted for 96% of the total soil nitrogen loss, followed by plant N (2%), NH 4 + (1%), and organic N (1%). In the Chinese pine forest, NH 4 + accounted for 56% of the total soil nitrogen loss, followed by organic N (34%) and NO 3 - (10%). Fertilization mode was identified as the main factor affecting soil N export. To minimize NH 4 + and NO 3 - outputs while maintaining the current plant yield (i.e., 7.85e0 kg N/year), a fertilization mode of 162.50 kg N/year offered by manure should be adopted. Whereas, to achieve a maximum plant yield (i.e., 3.35e1 kg N/year) while reducing NH 4 + and NO 3 - outputs, a fertilization mode of 325.00 kg N/year offered by manure should be utilized. This research is of wide suitability to support agricultural non-point source pollution management at the watershed scale.

Activity-specific ecological niche models for planning reintroductions of California condors (Gymnogyps californianus)

USGS Publications Warehouse

D'Elia, Jesse; Haig, Susan M.; Johnson, Matthew J.; Marcot, Bruce G.; Young, Richard

2015-01-01

Ecological niche models can be a useful tool to identify candidate reintroduction sites for endangered species but have been infrequently used for this purpose. In this paper, we (1) develop activity-specific ecological niche models (nesting, roosting, and feeding) for the critically endangered California condor (Gymnogyps californianus) to aid in reintroduction planning in California, Oregon, and Washington, USA, (2) test the accuracy of these models using empirical data withheld from model development, and (3) integrate model results with information on condor movement ecology and biology to produce predictive maps of reintroduction site suitability. Our approach, which disentangles niche models into activity-specific components, has applications for other species where it is routinely assumed (often incorrectly) that individuals fulfill all requirements for life within a single environmental space. Ecological niche models conformed to our understanding of California condor ecology, had good predictive performance when tested with data withheld from model development, and aided in the identification of several candidate reintroduction areas outside of the current distribution of the species. Our results suggest there are large unoccupied regions of the California condor’s historical range that have retained ecological features similar to currently occupied habitats, and thus could be considered for future reintroduction efforts. Combining our activity-specific ENMs with ground reconnaissance and information on other threat factors that could not be directly incorporated into empirical ENMs will ultimately improve our ability to select successful reintroduction sites for the California condor.

Chapter 5: Application of state-and-transition models to evaluate wildlife habitat

Treesearch

Anita T. Morzillo; Pamela Comeleo; Blair Csuti; Stephanie Lee

2014-01-01

Wildlife habitat analysis often is a central focus of natural resources management and policy. State-and-transition models (STMs) allow for simulation of landscape level ecological processes, and for managers to test “what if” scenarios of how those processes may affect wildlife habitat. This chapter describes the methods used to link STM output to wildlife habitat to...

Development of the Hydrological-Ecological Integrated watershed Flow Model (HEIFLOW): an application to the Heihe River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tian, Y.; Zheng, Y.; Zheng, C.; Han, F., Sr.

2017-12-01

Physically based and fully-distributed integrated hydrological models (IHMs) can quantitatively depict hydrological processes, both surface and subsurface, with sufficient spatial and temporal details. However, the complexity involved in pre-processing data and setting up models seriously hindered the wider application of IHMs in scientific research and management practice. This study introduces our design and development of Visual HEIFLOW, hereafter referred to as VHF, a comprehensive graphical data processing and modeling system for integrated hydrological simulation. The current version of VHF has been structured to accommodate an IHM named HEIFLOW (Hydrological-Ecological Integrated watershed-scale FLOW model). HEIFLOW is a model being developed by the authors, which has all typical elements of physically based and fully-distributed IHMs. It is based on GSFLOW, a representative integrated surface water-groundwater model developed by USGS. HEIFLOW provides several ecological modules that enable to simulate growth cycle of general vegetation and special plants (maize and populus euphratica). VHF incorporates and streamlines all key steps of the integrated modeling, and accommodates all types of GIS data necessary to hydrological simulation. It provides a GIS-based data processing framework to prepare an IHM for simulations, and has functionalities to flexibly display and modify model features (e.g., model grids, streams, boundary conditions, observational sites, etc.) and their associated data. It enables visualization and various spatio-temporal analyses of all model inputs and outputs at different scales (i.e., computing unit, sub-basin, basin, or user-defined spatial extent). The above system features, as well as many others, can significantly reduce the difficulty and time cost of building and using a complex IHM. The case study in the Heihe River Basin demonstrated the applicability of VHF for large scale integrated SW-GW modeling. Visualization and spatial-temporal analysis of the modeling results by HEIFLOW greatly facilitates our understanding on the complicated hydrologic cycle and relationship among the hydrological and ecological variables in the study area, and provides insights into the regional water resources management.

The Importance of Considering the Temporal Distribution of Climate Variables for Ecological-Economic Modeling to Calculate the Consequences of Climate Change for Agriculture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Plegnière, Sabrina; Casper, Markus; Hecker, Benjamin; Müller-Fürstenberger, Georg

2014-05-01

The basis of many models to calculate and assess climate change and its consequences are annual means of temperature and precipitation. This method leads to many uncertainties especially at the regional or local level: the results are not realistic or too coarse. Particularly in agriculture, single events and the distribution of precipitation and temperature during the growing season have enormous influences on plant growth. Therefore, the temporal distribution of climate variables should not be ignored. To reach this goal, a high-resolution ecological-economic model was developed which combines a complex plant growth model (STICS) and an economic model. In this context, input data of the plant growth model are daily climate values for a specific climate station calculated by the statistical climate model (WETTREG). The economic model is deduced from the results of the plant growth model STICS. The chosen plant is corn because corn is often cultivated and used in many different ways. First of all, a sensitivity analysis showed that the plant growth model STICS is suitable to calculate the influences of different cultivation methods and climate on plant growth or yield as well as on soil fertility, e.g. by nitrate leaching, in a realistic way. Additional simulations helped to assess a production function that is the key element of the economic model. Thereby the problems when using mean values of temperature and precipitation in order to compute a production function by linear regression are pointed out. Several examples show why a linear regression to assess a production function based on mean climate values or smoothed natural distribution leads to imperfect results and why it is not possible to deduce a unique climate factor in the production function. One solution for this problem is the additional consideration of stress indices that show the impairment of plants by water or nitrate shortage. Thus, the resulting model takes into account not only the ecological factors (e.g. the plant growth) or the economical factors as a simple monetary calculation, but also their mutual influences. Finally, the ecological-economic model enables us to make a risk assessment or evaluate adaptation strategies.

The big data-big model (BDBM) challenges in ecological research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luo, Y.

2015-12-01

The field of ecology has become a big-data science in the past decades due to development of new sensors used in numerous studies in the ecological community. Many sensor networks have been established to collect data. For example, satellites, such as Terra and OCO-2 among others, have collected data relevant on global carbon cycle. Thousands of field manipulative experiments have been conducted to examine feedback of terrestrial carbon cycle to global changes. Networks of observations, such as FLUXNET, have measured land processes. In particular, the implementation of the National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON), which is designed to network different kinds of sensors at many locations over the nation, will generate large volumes of ecological data every day. The raw data from sensors from those networks offer an unprecedented opportunity for accelerating advances in our knowledge of ecological processes, educating teachers and students, supporting decision-making, testing ecological theory, and forecasting changes in ecosystem services. Currently, ecologists do not have the infrastructure in place to synthesize massive yet heterogeneous data into resources for decision support. It is urgent to develop an ecological forecasting system that can make the best use of multiple sources of data to assess long-term biosphere change and anticipate future states of ecosystem services at regional and continental scales. Forecasting relies on big models that describe major processes that underlie complex system dynamics. Ecological system models, despite great simplification of the real systems, are still complex in order to address real-world problems. For example, Community Land Model (CLM) incorporates thousands of processes related to energy balance, hydrology, and biogeochemistry. Integration of massive data from multiple big data sources with complex models has to tackle Big Data-Big Model (BDBM) challenges. Those challenges include interoperability of multiple, heterogeneous data sets; intractability of structural complexity of big models; equifinality of model structure selection and parameter estimation; and computational demand of global optimization with Big Models.

Characterizing and predicting species distributions across environments and scales: Argentine ant occurrences in the eye of the beholder

USGS Publications Warehouse

Menke, S.B.; Holway, D.A.; Fisher, R.N.; Jetz, W.

2009-01-01

Aim: Species distribution models (SDMs) or, more specifically, ecological niche models (ENMs) are a useful and rapidly proliferating tool in ecology and global change biology. ENMs attempt to capture associations between a species and its environment and are often used to draw biological inferences, to predict potential occurrences in unoccupied regions and to forecast future distributions under environmental change. The accuracy of ENMs, however, hinges critically on the quality of occurrence data. ENMs often use haphazardly collected data rather than data collected across the full spectrum of existing environmental conditions. Moreover, it remains unclear how processes affecting ENM predictions operate at different spatial scales. The scale (i.e. grain size) of analysis may be dictated more by the sampling regime than by biologically meaningful processes. The aim of our study is to jointly quantify how issues relating to region and scale affect ENM predictions using an economically important and ecologically damaging invasive species, the Argentine ant (Linepithema humile). Location: California, USA. Methods: We analysed the relationship between sampling sufficiency, regional differences in environmental parameter space and cell size of analysis and resampling environmental layers using two independently collected sets of presence/absence data. Differences in variable importance were determined using model averaging and logistic regression. Model accuracy was measured with area under the curve (AUC) and Cohen's kappa. Results: We first demonstrate that insufficient sampling of environmental parameter space can cause large errors in predicted distributions and biological interpretation. Models performed best when they were parametrized with data that sufficiently sampled environmental parameter space. Second, we show that altering the spatial grain of analysis changes the relative importance of different environmental variables. These changes apparently result from how environmental constraints and the sampling distributions of environmental variables change with spatial grain. Conclusions: These findings have clear relevance for biological inference. Taken together, our results illustrate potentially general limitations for ENMs, especially when such models are used to predict species occurrences in novel environments. We offer basic methodological and conceptual guidelines for appropriate sampling and scale matching. ?? 2009 The Authors Journal compilation ?? 2009 Blackwell Publishing.

Importance of Dissolved Organic Nitrogen to Water Quality in Narragansett Bay

EPA Science Inventory

This preliminary analysis of the importance of the dissolved organic nitrogen (DON) pool in Narragansett Bay is being conducted as part of a five-year study of Narragansett Bay and its watershed. This larger study includes water quality and ecological modeling components that foc...

Community ecology neutral models and the topology of connectivity

EPA Science Inventory

This presentation will tie together two threads of past research. The first thread is research on biodiversity starting in the 1990s with the Biodiversity Research consortium initiated by EPA and the US Forest Service, and including the US Fish and Wildlife Service Gap Analysis ...

Managing Knowledge to Save the Environment.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bundy, McGeorge

Discussed are the ways in which modern data analysis can increase understanding of complex interrelationships in natural and manmade systems, thus enhancing the rationality of decision-making. Examples are given of predictions made from economic and ecological models. The need for international cooperation on environmental questions is discussed…

Exploring the Mechanisms of Ecological Land Change Based on the Spatial Autoregressive Model: A Case Study of the Poyang Lake Eco-Economic Zone, China

PubMed Central

Xie, Hualin; Liu, Zhifei; Wang, Peng; Liu, Guiying; Lu, Fucai

2013-01-01

Ecological land is one of the key resources and conditions for the survival of humans because it can provide ecosystem services and is particularly important to public health and safety. It is extremely valuable for effective ecological management to explore the evolution mechanisms of ecological land. Based on spatial statistical analyses, we explored the spatial disparities and primary potential drivers of ecological land change in the Poyang Lake Eco-economic Zone of China. The results demonstrated that the global Moran’s I value is 0.1646 during the 1990 to 2005 time period and indicated significant positive spatial correlation (p < 0.05). The results also imply that the clustering trend of ecological land changes weakened in the study area. Some potential driving forces were identified by applying the spatial autoregressive model in this study. The results demonstrated that the higher economic development level and industrialization rate were the main drivers for the faster change of ecological land in the study area. This study also tested the superiority of the spatial autoregressive model to study the mechanisms of ecological land change by comparing it with the traditional linear regressive model. PMID:24384778

[Public health conceptual models and paradigms].

PubMed

Hernández-Girón, Carlos; Orozco-Núñez, Emanuel; Arredondo-López, Armando

2012-01-01

The epidemiological transition model proposed by Omhran at the beginning of the 1970s (decreased fecundity rate and increased life expectancy), together with modifications in lifestyles and diet, showed increased mortality due to chronically degenerative causes. This essay thus discusses and makes a comparative analysis of some currents of thought, taking as its common thread an analysis of epidemiological change identified in different eras or stages and relationships with some public health models or conceptual frameworks. Discussing public health paradigms leads to a historical recapitulation of conceptual models ranging from magical-religious conceptions to ecological and socio-medical models. M. Susser proposed 3 eras in this discipline's evolution in his speech on the future of the epidemiology. The epidemiological changes analysed through different approaches constitute elements of analysis that all models discussed in this essay include to delimit the contributions and variables so determining them.

Multivariate Models of Adult Pacific Salmon Returns

PubMed Central

Burke, Brian J.; Peterson, William T.; Beckman, Brian R.; Morgan, Cheryl; Daly, Elizabeth A.; Litz, Marisa

2013-01-01

Most modeling and statistical approaches encourage simplicity, yet ecological processes are often complex, as they are influenced by numerous dynamic environmental and biological factors. Pacific salmon abundance has been highly variable over the last few decades and most forecasting models have proven inadequate, primarily because of a lack of understanding of the processes affecting variability in survival. Better methods and data for predicting the abundance of returning adults are therefore required to effectively manage the species. We combined 31 distinct indicators of the marine environment collected over an 11-year period into a multivariate analysis to summarize and predict adult spring Chinook salmon returns to the Columbia River in 2012. In addition to forecasts, this tool quantifies the strength of the relationship between various ecological indicators and salmon returns, allowing interpretation of ecosystem processes. The relative importance of indicators varied, but a few trends emerged. Adult returns of spring Chinook salmon were best described using indicators of bottom-up ecological processes such as composition and abundance of zooplankton and fish prey as well as measures of individual fish, such as growth and condition. Local indicators of temperature or coastal upwelling did not contribute as much as large-scale indicators of temperature variability, matching the spatial scale over which salmon spend the majority of their ocean residence. Results suggest that effective management of Pacific salmon requires multiple types of data and that no single indicator can represent the complex early-ocean ecology of salmon. PMID:23326586

Quantifying the adaptive cycle

USGS Publications Warehouse

Angeler, David G.; Allen, Craig R.; Garmestani, Ahjond S.; Gunderson, Lance H.; Hjerne, Olle; Winder, Monika

2015-01-01

The adaptive cycle was proposed as a conceptual model to portray patterns of change in complex systems. Despite the model having potential for elucidating change across systems, it has been used mainly as a metaphor, describing system dynamics qualitatively. We use a quantitative approach for testing premises (reorganisation, conservatism, adaptation) in the adaptive cycle, using Baltic Sea phytoplankton communities as an example of such complex system dynamics. Phytoplankton organizes in recurring spring and summer blooms, a well-established paradigm in planktology and succession theory, with characteristic temporal trajectories during blooms that may be consistent with adaptive cycle phases. We used long-term (1994–2011) data and multivariate analysis of community structure to assess key components of the adaptive cycle. Specifically, we tested predictions about: reorganisation: spring and summer blooms comprise distinct community states; conservatism: community trajectories during individual adaptive cycles are conservative; and adaptation: phytoplankton species during blooms change in the long term. All predictions were supported by our analyses. Results suggest that traditional ecological paradigms such as phytoplankton successional models have potential for moving the adaptive cycle from a metaphor to a framework that can improve our understanding how complex systems organize and reorganize following collapse. Quantifying reorganization, conservatism and adaptation provides opportunities to cope with the intricacies and uncertainties associated with fast ecological change, driven by shifting system controls. Ultimately, combining traditional ecological paradigms with heuristics of complex system dynamics using quantitative approaches may help refine ecological theory and improve our understanding of the resilience of ecosystems.

Quantifying the Adaptive Cycle.

PubMed

Angeler, David G; Allen, Craig R; Garmestani, Ahjond S; Gunderson, Lance H; Hjerne, Olle; Winder, Monika

2015-01-01

The adaptive cycle was proposed as a conceptual model to portray patterns of change in complex systems. Despite the model having potential for elucidating change across systems, it has been used mainly as a metaphor, describing system dynamics qualitatively. We use a quantitative approach for testing premises (reorganisation, conservatism, adaptation) in the adaptive cycle, using Baltic Sea phytoplankton communities as an example of such complex system dynamics. Phytoplankton organizes in recurring spring and summer blooms, a well-established paradigm in planktology and succession theory, with characteristic temporal trajectories during blooms that may be consistent with adaptive cycle phases. We used long-term (1994-2011) data and multivariate analysis of community structure to assess key components of the adaptive cycle. Specifically, we tested predictions about: reorganisation: spring and summer blooms comprise distinct community states; conservatism: community trajectories during individual adaptive cycles are conservative; and adaptation: phytoplankton species during blooms change in the long term. All predictions were supported by our analyses. Results suggest that traditional ecological paradigms such as phytoplankton successional models have potential for moving the adaptive cycle from a metaphor to a framework that can improve our understanding how complex systems organize and reorganize following collapse. Quantifying reorganization, conservatism and adaptation provides opportunities to cope with the intricacies and uncertainties associated with fast ecological change, driven by shifting system controls. Ultimately, combining traditional ecological paradigms with heuristics of complex system dynamics using quantitative approaches may help refine ecological theory and improve our understanding of the resilience of ecosystems.

Special issue dedicated to the 70th birthday of Glenn F. Webb. Preface.

PubMed

Hinow, Peter; Magal, Pierre; Ruan, Shigui

2015-08-01

This special issue is dedicated to the 70th birthday of Glenn F. Webb. The topics of the 12 articles appearing in this special issue include evolutionary dynamics of population growth, spatio-temporal dynamics in reaction-diffusion biological models, transmission dynamics of infectious diseases, modeling of antibiotic-resistant bacteria in hospitals, analysis of Prion models, age-structured models in ecology and epidemiology, modeling of immune response to infections, modeling of cancer growth, etc. These topics partially represent the broad areas of Glenn's research interest.

Integrating human and natural systems in community psychology: an ecological model of stewardship behavior.

PubMed

Moskell, Christine; Allred, Shorna Broussard

2013-03-01

Community psychology (CP) research on the natural environment lacks a theoretical framework for analyzing the complex relationship between human systems and the natural world. We introduce other academic fields concerned with the interactions between humans and the natural environment, including environmental sociology and coupled human and natural systems. To demonstrate how the natural environment can be included within CP's ecological framework, we propose an ecological model of urban forest stewardship action. Although ecological models of behavior in CP have previously modeled health behaviors, we argue that these frameworks are also applicable to actions that positively influence the natural environment. We chose the environmental action of urban forest stewardship because cities across the United States are planting millions of trees and increased citizen participation in urban tree planting and stewardship will be needed to sustain the benefits provided by urban trees. We used the framework of an ecological model of behavior to illustrate multiple levels of factors that may promote or hinder involvement in urban forest stewardship actions. The implications of our model for the development of multi-level ecological interventions to foster stewardship actions are discussed, as well as directions for future research to further test and refine the model.

[Principles and methodology for ecological rehabilitation and security pattern design in key project construction].

PubMed

Chen, Li-Ding; Lu, Yi-He; Tian, Hui-Ying; Shi, Qian

2007-03-01

Global ecological security becomes increasingly important with the intensive human activities. The function of ecological security is influenced by human activities, and in return, the efficiency of human activities will also be affected by the patterns of regional ecological security. Since the 1990s, China has initiated the construction of key projects "Yangtze Three Gorges Dam", "Qinghai-Tibet Railway", "West-to-East Gas Pipeline", "West-to-East Electricity Transmission" and "South-to-North Water Transfer" , etc. The interaction between these projects and regional ecological security has particularly attracted the attention of Chinese government. It is not only important for the regional environmental protection, but also of significance for the smoothly implementation of various projects aimed to develop an ecological rehabilitation system and to design a regional ecological security pattern. This paper made a systematic analysis on the types and characteristics of key project construction and their effects on the environment, and on the basis of this, brought forward the basic principles and methodology for ecological rehabilitation and security pattern design in this construction. It was considered that the following issues should be addressed in the implementation of a key project: 1) analysis and evaluation of current regional ecological environment, 2) evaluation of anthropogenic disturbances and their ecological risk, 3) regional ecological rehabilitation and security pattern design, 4) scenario analysis of environmental benefits of regional ecological security pattern, 5) re-optimization of regional ecological system framework, and 6) establishment of regional ecosystem management plan.

The Evaluation of Land Ecological Safety of Chengchao Iron Mine Based on PSR and MEM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jin, Xiangdong; Chen, Yong

2018-01-01

Land ecological security is of vital importance to local security and sustainable development of mining activities. The study has analyzed the potential causal chains between the land ecological security of Iron Mine mining environment, mine resource and the social-economic background. On the base of Pressure-State-Response model, the paper set up a matter element evaluation model of land ecological security, and applies it in Chengchao iron mine. The evaluation result proves to be effective in land ecological evaluation.

Urban Ecological Security Simulation and Prediction Using an Improved Cellular Automata (CA) Approach—A Case Study for the City of Wuhan in China

PubMed Central

Gao, Yuan; Zhang, Chuanrong; He, Qingsong; Liu, Yaolin

2017-01-01

Ecological security is an important research topic, especially urban ecological security. As highly populated eco-systems, cities always have more fragile ecological environments. However, most of the research on urban ecological security in literature has focused on evaluating current or past status of the ecological environment. Very little literature has carried out simulation or prediction of future ecological security. In addition, there is even less literature exploring the urban ecological environment at a fine scale. To fill-in the literature gap, in this study we simulated and predicted urban ecological security at a fine scale (district level) using an improved Cellular Automata (CA) approach. First we used the pressure-state-response (PSR) method based on grid-scale data to evaluate urban ecological security. Then, based on the evaluation results, we imported the geographically weighted regression (GWR) concept into the CA model to simulate and predict urban ecological security. We applied the improved CA approach in a case study—simulating and predicting urban ecological security for the city of Wuhan in Central China. By comparing the simulated ecological security values from 2010 using the improved CA model to the actual ecological security values of 2010, we got a relatively high value of the kappa coefficient, which indicates that this CA model can simulate or predict well future development of ecological security in Wuhan. Based on the prediction results for 2020, we made some policy recommendations for each district in Wuhan. PMID:28617348

A Global Lake Ecological Observatory Network (GLEON) for synthesising high-frequency sensor data for validation of deterministic ecological models

USGS Publications Warehouse

David, Hamilton P; Carey, Cayelan C.; Arvola, Lauri; Arzberger, Peter; Brewer, Carol A.; Cole, Jon J; Gaiser, Evelyn; Hanson, Paul C.; Ibelings, Bas W; Jennings, Eleanor; Kratz, Tim K; Lin, Fang-Pang; McBride, Christopher G.; de Motta Marques, David; Muraoka, Kohji; Nishri, Ami; Qin, Boqiang; Read, Jordan S.; Rose, Kevin C.; Ryder, Elizabeth; Weathers, Kathleen C.; Zhu, Guangwei; Trolle, Dennis; Brookes, Justin D

2014-01-01

A Global Lake Ecological Observatory Network (GLEON; www.gleon.org) has formed to provide a coordinated response to the need for scientific understanding of lake processes, utilising technological advances available from autonomous sensors. The organisation embraces a grassroots approach to engage researchers from varying disciplines, sites spanning geographic and ecological gradients, and novel sensor and cyberinfrastructure to synthesise high-frequency lake data at scales ranging from local to global. The high-frequency data provide a platform to rigorously validate process- based ecological models because model simulation time steps are better aligned with sensor measurements than with lower-frequency, manual samples. Two case studies from Trout Bog, Wisconsin, USA, and Lake Rotoehu, North Island, New Zealand, are presented to demonstrate that in the past, ecological model outputs (e.g., temperature, chlorophyll) have been relatively poorly validated based on a limited number of directly comparable measurements, both in time and space. The case studies demonstrate some of the difficulties of mapping sensor measurements directly to model state variable outputs as well as the opportunities to use deviations between sensor measurements and model simulations to better inform process understanding. Well-validated ecological models provide a mechanism to extrapolate high-frequency sensor data in space and time, thereby potentially creating a fully 3-dimensional simulation of key variables of interest.

The use of mechanistic descriptions of algal growth and zooplankton grazing in an estuarine eutrophication model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baird, M. E.; Walker, S. J.; Wallace, B. B.; Webster, I. T.; Parslow, J. S.

2003-03-01

A simple model of estuarine eutrophication is built on biomechanical (or mechanistic) descriptions of a number of the key ecological processes in estuaries. Mechanistically described processes include the nutrient uptake and light capture of planktonic and benthic autotrophs, and the encounter rates of planktonic predators and prey. Other more complex processes, such as sediment biogeochemistry, detrital processes and phosphate dynamics, are modelled using empirical descriptions from the Port Phillip Bay Environmental Study (PPBES) ecological model. A comparison is made between the mechanistically determined rates of ecological processes and the analogous empirically determined rates in the PPBES ecological model. The rates generally agree, with a few significant exceptions. Model simulations were run at a range of estuarine depths and nutrient loads, with outputs presented as the annually averaged biomass of autotrophs. The simulations followed a simple conceptual model of eutrophication, suggesting a simple biomechanical understanding of estuarine processes can provide a predictive tool for ecological processes in a wide range of estuarine ecosystems.

Multi-Target Risk Assessment of Potentially Toxic Elements in Farmland Soil Based on the Environment-Ecological-Health Effect.

PubMed

Wang, Zhongyang; Meng, Bo; Zhang, Wei; Bai, Jinheng; Ma, Yingxin; Liu, Mingda

2018-05-28

There are potential impacts of Potentially Toxic Elements (PTEs) (e.g., Cd, Cr, Ni, Cu, As, Zn, Hg, and Pb) in soil from the perspective of the ecological environment and human health, and assessing the pollution and risk level of soil will play an important role in formulating policies for soil pollution control. Lingyuan, in the west of Liaoning Province, China, is a typical low-relief terrain of a hilly area. The object of study in this research is the topsoil of farmland in this area, of which 71 soil samples are collected. In this study, research methods, such as the Nemerow Index, Potential Ecological Hazard Index, Ecological Risk Quotient, Environmental Exposure Hazard Analysis, Positive Matrix Factorization Model, and Land Statistical Analysis, are used for systematical assessment of the pollution scale, pollution level, and source of PTEs, as well as the ecological environmental risks and health risks in the study area. The main conclusions are: The average contents of As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Hg, Zn, Ni, and Pb of the soil are 5.32 mg/kg, 0.31 mg/kg, 50.44 mg/kg, 47.05 mg/kg, 0.03 mg/kg, 79.36 mg/kg, 26.01 mg/kg, and 35.65 mg/kg, respectively. The contents of Cd, Cu, Zn, and Pb exceed the background value of local soil; Cd content of some study plots exceeds the National Soil Environmental Quality Standard Value (0.6 mg/kg), and the exceeding standard rate of study plots is 5.63%; the comprehensive potential ecological hazard assessment in the study area indicates that the PTEs are at a slight ecological risk; probabilistic hazard quotient assessment indicates that the influence of PTEs on species caused by Cu is at a slight level ( p = 10.93%), and Zn, Pb, and Cd are at an acceptable level. For the ecological process, Zn is at a medium level ( p = 25.78%), Cu is at a slight level (19.77%), and the influence of Cd and Pb are acceptable; human health hazard assessment states that the Non-carcinogenic comprehensive health hazard index HI = 0.16 < 1, indicating that PTEs in soil have no significant effect on people's health through exposure; the PMF model (Positive Matrix Factorization) shows that the contribution rates of agricultural source, industrial source, atmospheric dust source, and natural source are 13.15%, 25.33%, 18.47%, and 43.05%, respectively.

Preserving and maintaining vital Ecosystem Services: the importance of linking knowledge from Geosciences and social-ecological System analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Finger, David; Petursdottir, Thorunn

2013-04-01

Human kind has always been curios and motivated to understand and quantify environmental processes in order to predict and anticipate the evolution of vital ecosystem services. Even the very first civilizations used empirical correlations to predict outcomes of rains and subsequent harvest efficiencies. Along with the insights into the functioning of ecosystems, humans also became aware that their anthropogenic activities can have positive and negative impact on ecosystem services. In recent years, geosciences have brought forward new sophisticated observations and modeling tools, with the aim to improve predictions of ecological developments. At the same time, the added value of linking ecological factors to the surrounding social structure has received a growing acceptance among scientists. A social-ecological system approach brings in a holistic understanding of how these systems are inevitably interlinked and how their sustainability can be better maintained. We claim that the biggest challenge for geoscience in the coming decades will be to link these two disciplines in order to establish adequate strategies to preserve natural ecosystems and their services, parallel to their utilization. We will present various case studies from more than a decade of research, ranging from water quality in mountain lakes, climate change impacts on water availability and declining fishing yields in freshwaters and discuss how the studies outcomes could be given added value by interpreting them via social-ecological system analysis. For instance, sophisticated field investigations revealed that deep water mixing in lake Issyk-Kul, Kirgizstan, is intensively distributing pollutants in the entire lake. Although fishery is an important sector in the region, the local awareness of the importance of water quality is low. In Switzerland, strict water protection laws led to ologotrophication of alpine lakes, reducing fishing yields. While local fishermen argued that local fishery is more ecological than importing fish, their calls for artificial lake fertilization were rejected and are socially not accepted. Finally, climate change projections of water availability in the Alps reveal that water may become scarce during summer months due to vanishing glaciers. Financially the hydropower sector is the most important water user. However, other stakeholders, like farmers and the tourism sectors will be all competing for the decreasing resources. In all these three cases, a social-ecological system analysis could give an added value to the geoscience results by identifying solutions that are both ecological and socially suitable. We will conclude our talk by giving an outlook how we intend to link the two disciplines to perform integrative assessments, linking geoscience to the relevant social-ecological system analysis in order to come up with strategies to sustainably preserve vital ecosystem services.

The effect of educational intervention based on an Ecological-social model on consuming fruit and vegetables in women in Ilam.

PubMed

Shafiei, Leili; Taymoori, Parvaneh; Maleki, Afshin; Sayehmiri, Kourosh

2017-12-01

The effect of instructional models on the changing behavior of consuming fruit and vegetables in the prevention of diseases caused by consumption of foods including rice, contaminated with toxic metals, has not been investigated in Iran yet. To compare an Ecological-social model (ECO) group and Control group in increasing fruit and vegetable consumption. This research involved implementation of a six-month randomized controlled educational interventionist program into a group of Ecological-social framework along with a control group, totally summing up to 160 women between 18 and 50 years of age in Ilam, Iran in 2014. The questionnaire included knowledge, social support construct (immediate family, relatives, friends, colleagues and neighbors.) and fruit and vegetable intake in both groups before and after the intervention was examined. Data were analyzed by SPSS version 16 using the signed ranks test, and repeated measures analysis of variance analysis, and confidence interval of 95% were employed. The results of the signed ranks test showed a significant increase in social support in the intervention group (p<0.001). This test showed a significant increase in fruit and vegetable consumption and a significant increase in the number of women using healthy rice (p<0.001), and a significant reduction in the number of women consuming unhealthy rice in the intervention group (p<0.001), that determines dietary intake improvement after the intervention compared with before the intervention (p<0.01). However, this improvement was not observed in the control group. The results showed that ECO plays an effective role in improving fruit and vegetable consumption in women. Therefore, this model was implemented as a health protocol through health-care centers to conduct the prevention of complications resulting from the use of food contaminated with toxic metals.

Dynamics and spatio-temporal variability of environmental factors in Eastern Australia using functional principal component analysis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Szabo, J.K.; Fedriani, E.M.; Segovia-Gonzalez, M. M.; Astheimer, L.B.; Hooper, M.J.

2010-01-01

This paper introduces a new technique in ecology to analyze spatial and temporal variability in environmental variables. By using simple statistics, we explore the relations between abiotic and biotic variables that influence animal distributions. However, spatial and temporal variability in rainfall, a key variable in ecological studies, can cause difficulties to any basic model including time evolution. The study was of a landscape scale (three million square kilometers in eastern Australia), mainly over the period of 19982004. We simultaneously considered qualitative spatial (soil and habitat types) and quantitative temporal (rainfall) variables in a Geographical Information System environment. In addition to some techniques commonly used in ecology, we applied a new method, Functional Principal Component Analysis, which proved to be very suitable for this case, as it explained more than 97% of the total variance of the rainfall data, providing us with substitute variables that are easier to manage and are even able to explain rainfall patterns. The main variable came from a habitat classification that showed strong correlations with rainfall values and soil types. ?? 2010 World Scientific Publishing Company.

Water quality and emergy evaluation of two freshwater aquacultural systems for eutrophic water in the Controlling by Biological Chains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xi, L. M.; Liu, C. Q.; Liu, D. F.; Huang, W. L.; Sun, Y.

2017-08-01

According to the ecological restoration theory, this experiment establishes aquaculture systems controlled by biological chains in both Xiaoxidian area and Dujiadian area of Baiyangdian Lake separately in order to improve the environment and bring economic benefits. The appearance of Emergy Theory provides a new method for the quantitative analysis of ecological economic system. Based on the analysis of Emergy Theory, this thesis compares the eco-economic systems under different polyculture models between Xiaoxidian area and Dujiadian area. The result demonstrates that Xiaoxidian ecological system is of high Emergy Transformity with higher emergy output and economic income per unit area compared with Dujiadian area. While Dujiadian area has higher Emergy Yield Rate and lower Environment Load Rate. So Dujiadian area is more sustainable due to the overload non-renewable energy of Xiaoxidian area devoted by human. Therefore, it will be better if we adjust and optimize the management of aquaculture system in Xiaoxidian area in order to find a stable equilibrium point between environmental sustainability and economic benefits.

A pilot study of Aboriginal health promotion from an ecological perspective

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background For health promotion to be effective in Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Communities, interventions (and their evaluation) need to work within a complex social environment and respect Indigenous knowledge, culture and social systems. At present, there is a lack of culturally appropriate evaluation methods available to practitioners that are capable of capturing this complexity. As an initial response to this problem, we used two non-invasive methods to evaluate a community-directed health promotion program, which aimed to improve nutrition and physical activity for members of the Aboriginal community of the Goulburn-Murray region of northern Victoria, Australia. The study addressed two main questions. First, for members of an Aboriginal sporting club, what changes were made to the nutrition environment in which they meet and how is this related to national guidelines for minimising the risk of chronic disease? Second, to what degree was the overall health promotion program aligned with an ecological model of health promotion that addresses physical, social and policy environments as well as individual knowledge and behaviour? Methods Rather than monitoring individual outcomes, evaluation methods reported on here assessed change in the nutrition environment (sports club food supply) as a facilitator of dietary change and the 'ecological' nature of the overall program (that is, its complexity with respect to numbers of targets, settings and strategies). Results There were favourable changes towards the provision of a food supply consistent with Australian guidelines at the sports club. The ecological analysis indicated that the design and implementation of the program were consistent with an ecological model of health promotion. Conclusions The evaluation was useful for assessing the impact of the program on the nutrition environment and for understanding the ecological nature of program activities. PMID:21961906

System dynamic modelling of industrial growth and landscape ecology in China.

PubMed

Xu, Jian; Kang, Jian; Shao, Long; Zhao, Tianyu

2015-09-15

With the rapid development of large industrial corridors in China, the landscape ecology of the country is currently being affected. Therefore, in this study, a system dynamic model with multi-dimensional nonlinear dynamic prediction function that considers industrial growth and landscape ecology is developed and verified to allow for more sustainable development. Firstly, relationships between industrial development and landscape ecology in China are examined, and five subsystems are then established: industry, population, urban economy, environment and landscape ecology. The main influencing factors are then examined for each subsystem to establish flow charts connecting those factors. Consequently, by connecting the subsystems, an overall industry growth and landscape ecology model is established. Using actual data and landscape index calculated based on GIS of the Ha-Da-Qi industrial corridor, a typical industrial corridor in China, over the period 2005-2009, the model is validated in terms of historical behaviour, logical structure and future prediction, where for 84.8% of the factors, the error rate of the model is less than 5%, the mean error rate of all factors is 2.96% and the error of the simulation test for the landscape ecology subsystem is less than 2%. Moreover, a model application has been made to consider the changes in landscape indices under four industrial development modes, and the optimal industrial growth plan has been examined for landscape ecological protection through the simulation prediction results over 2015-2020. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Sense of Place: Integrating Environmental Psychology into Marine Socio-Ecological Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Putten, I. E.; Fleming, A.; Fulton, E.; Plaganyi-Lloyd, E.

2016-02-01

Sense of place is a concept that is increasingly applied in different social research contexts where it can act as a bridge between disciplines that might otherwise work in parallel. A sense of place is a well established and flexible concept that has been empirically measured using different survey methods. The psychological principals and theories that underpin sense of place have been inextricably linked to the quality of ecological systems and the impact on development of the system, and vice versa. Ecological models and scenario analyses play an important role in characterising, assessing and predicting the potential impacts of alternative developments and other changes affecting ecological systems. To improve the predictive accuracy of ecological models, human drivers, interactions, and uses have been dynamically incorporated, for instance, through management strategy evaluation applied to marine ecosystem models. However, to date no socio-ecological models (whether terrestrial or marine) have been developed that incorporate a dynamic feedback between ecosystem characteristics and peoples' sense of place. These models thus essentially ignore the influence of environmental psychology on the way people use and interact with ecosystems. We develop a proof of concept and provide a mathematical basis for a Sense of Place Index (SoPI) that allows the quantitative integration of environmental psychology into socio-ecological models. Incorporating dynamic feedback between the SoPI for different resource user groups and the ecological system improves the accuracy and precision of predictions regarding future resource use as well as, ultimately, the potential state of the resource to be developed.

Multiplex social ecological network analysis reveals how social changes affect community robustness more than resource depletion.

PubMed

Baggio, Jacopo A; BurnSilver, Shauna B; Arenas, Alex; Magdanz, James S; Kofinas, Gary P; De Domenico, Manlio

2016-11-29

Network analysis provides a powerful tool to analyze complex influences of social and ecological structures on community and household dynamics. Most network studies of social-ecological systems use simple, undirected, unweighted networks. We analyze multiplex, directed, and weighted networks of subsistence food flows collected in three small indigenous communities in Arctic Alaska potentially facing substantial economic and ecological changes. Our analysis of plausible future scenarios suggests that changes to social relations and key households have greater effects on community robustness than changes to specific wild food resources.

[Dynamic changes of ecological footprint and ecological capacity in Fujian Province].

PubMed

Weng, Boqi; Wang, Yixiang; Huang, Yibin; Ying, Zhaoyang; Huang, Qinlou

2006-11-01

The analysis on the dynamic changes of ecological footprint and ecological capacity in Fujian Province showed that in 1999-2003, the ecological footprint per capita in the Province increased from 1.428 hm2 to 1.658 hm2, while the ecological capacity per capita decreased from 0.683 hm2 to 0.607 hm2, with an increased ecological deficit year after year. The contradiction between the ecological footprint and ecological capacity pricked up gradually, and the ecological environment was at risk. There existed a severe imbalance in the supply and demand of ecological footprint per capita. The main body of the demands was grassland and fossil fuel, accouting for 55.74% - 63.43% of the total, while their supply only occupied 0.77% - 0.82% and next to nothing of the ecological capacity per capita, respectively. As a whole, the ecological footprint per ten thousand yuan GDP declined in the five years, indicating that the resources use efficiency in the Province was improved gradually. Based on the analysis of the present situation of the economic development and resources distribution in the Province, the strategies on reducing ecological deficit were put forward.

The aquatic animals' transcriptome resource for comparative functional analysis.

PubMed

Chou, Chih-Hung; Huang, Hsi-Yuan; Huang, Wei-Chih; Hsu, Sheng-Da; Hsiao, Chung-Der; Liu, Chia-Yu; Chen, Yu-Hung; Liu, Yu-Chen; Huang, Wei-Yun; Lee, Meng-Lin; Chen, Yi-Chang; Huang, Hsien-Da

2018-05-09

Aquatic animals have great economic and ecological importance. Among them, non-model organisms have been studied regarding eco-toxicity, stress biology, and environmental adaptation. Due to recent advances in next-generation sequencing techniques, large amounts of RNA-seq data for aquatic animals are publicly available. However, currently there is no comprehensive resource exist for the analysis, unification, and integration of these datasets. This study utilizes computational approaches to build a new resource of transcriptomic maps for aquatic animals. This aquatic animal transcriptome map database dbATM provides de novo assembly of transcriptome, gene annotation and comparative analysis of more than twenty aquatic organisms without draft genome. To improve the assembly quality, three computational tools (Trinity, Oases and SOAPdenovo-Trans) were employed to enhance individual transcriptome assembly, and CAP3 and CD-HIT-EST software were then used to merge these three assembled transcriptomes. In addition, functional annotation analysis provides valuable clues to gene characteristics, including full-length transcript coding regions, conserved domains, gene ontology and KEGG pathways. Furthermore, all aquatic animal genes are essential for comparative genomics tasks such as constructing homologous gene groups and blast databases and phylogenetic analysis. In conclusion, we establish a resource for non model organism aquatic animals, which is great economic and ecological importance and provide transcriptomic information including functional annotation and comparative transcriptome analysis. The database is now publically accessible through the URL http://dbATM.mbc.nctu.edu.tw/ .

Ecology and geography of human monkeypox case occurrences across Africa.

PubMed

Ellis, Christine K; Carroll, Darin S; Lash, Ryan R; Peterson, A Townsend; Damon, Inger K; Malekani, Jean; Formenty, Pierre

2012-04-01

As ecologic niche modeling (ENM) evolves as a tool in spatial epidemiology and public health, selection of the most appropriate and informative environmental data sets becomes increasingly important. Here, we build on a previous ENM analysis of the potential distribution of human monkeypox in Africa by refining georeferencing criteria and using more-diverse environmental data to identify environmental parameters contributing to monkeypox distributional ecology. Significant environmental variables include annual precipitation, several temperature-related variables, primary productivity, evapotranspiration, soil moisture, and pH. The potential distribution identified with this set of variables was broader than that identified in previous analyses but does not include areas recently found to hold monkeypox in southern Sudan. Our results emphasize the importance of selecting the most appropriate and informative environmental data sets for ENM analyses in pathogen transmission mapping.

Sustainable Deforestation Evaluation Model and System Dynamics Analysis

PubMed Central

Feng, Huirong; Lim, C. W.; Chen, Liqun; Zhou, Xinnian; Zhou, Chengjun; Lin, Yi

2014-01-01

The current study used the improved fuzzy analytic hierarchy process to construct a sustainable deforestation development evaluation system and evaluation model, which has refined a diversified system to evaluate the theory of sustainable deforestation development. Leveraging the visual image of the system dynamics causal and power flow diagram, we illustrated here that sustainable forestry development is a complex system that encompasses the interaction and dynamic development of ecology, economy, and society and has reflected the time dynamic effect of sustainable forestry development from the three combined effects. We compared experimental programs to prove the direct and indirect impacts of the ecological, economic, and social effects of the corresponding deforest techniques and fully reflected the importance of developing scientific and rational ecological harvesting and transportation technologies. Experimental and theoretical results illustrated that light cableway skidding is an ecoskidding method that is beneficial for the sustainable development of resources, the environment, the economy, and society and forecasted the broad potential applications of light cableway skidding in timber production technology. Furthermore, we discussed the sustainable development countermeasures of forest ecosystems from the aspects of causality, interaction, and harmony. PMID:25254225

Sustainable deforestation evaluation model and system dynamics analysis.

PubMed

Feng, Huirong; Lim, C W; Chen, Liqun; Zhou, Xinnian; Zhou, Chengjun; Lin, Yi

2014-01-01

The current study used the improved fuzzy analytic hierarchy process to construct a sustainable deforestation development evaluation system and evaluation model, which has refined a diversified system to evaluate the theory of sustainable deforestation development. Leveraging the visual image of the system dynamics causal and power flow diagram, we illustrated here that sustainable forestry development is a complex system that encompasses the interaction and dynamic development of ecology, economy, and society and has reflected the time dynamic effect of sustainable forestry development from the three combined effects. We compared experimental programs to prove the direct and indirect impacts of the ecological, economic, and social effects of the corresponding deforest techniques and fully reflected the importance of developing scientific and rational ecological harvesting and transportation technologies. Experimental and theoretical results illustrated that light cableway skidding is an ecoskidding method that is beneficial for the sustainable development of resources, the environment, the economy, and society and forecasted the broad potential applications of light cableway skidding in timber production technology. Furthermore, we discussed the sustainable development countermeasures of forest ecosystems from the aspects of causality, interaction, and harmony.

Estimating the ecology of extinct species with paleoecological data assimilation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raiho, A.; McLachlan, J. S.; Dietze, M.

2017-12-01

In order to understand long term, unobservable ecosystem processes, ecologists must use both paleoecoloigcal data and ecosystem models. Models parameterize species competitive interactions using modern data. But, modern ecological or physiological observations are not available for extinct species, making it difficult for models to conceptualize their ecology. For instance, American chestnut (Castanea dentata), who played a large role in forests of northeastern US, was decimated by disease to virtual extinction. Since chestnut's demise, defining its ecology has been controversial. Models typically assume that chestnut's ecology was very similar to oak; They parameterize chestnut like oak species. These assumptions are drawn from paleoecological data, but these data are often reported without uncertainty. Since the paleoecological data are often reported without uncertainty, paleoecological data has never been directly incorporated with ecosystem models. We developed a Bayesian statistical model to estimate fractional composition from paleoecological data with uncertainty. Then, we assimilated this data product into an ecosystem model for long term forest succession using a generalized ensemble adjustment filter to determine which species demographic parameters lead to changes in species composition over the last 2,000 years at Harvard Forest. We found that chestnut was strongly negatively correlated with white pine (Pinus strobus) and red oak (Quercus rubra) in the process covariance matrix, suggesting a strong competitive interaction that is not currently understood by models for forest succession. These findings provide support for utilizing a data assimilation framework to ecologically interpret paleoecological data or data products to learn about the ecology of extinct species.

Some observations on the use of discriminant analysis in ecology

USGS Publications Warehouse

Williams, B.K.

1983-01-01

The application of discriminant analysis in ecological investigations is discussed. The appropriate statistical assumptions for discriminant analysis are illustrated, and both classification and group separation approaches are outlined. Three assumptions that are crucial in ecological studies are discussed at length, and the consequences of their violation are developed. These assumptions are: equality of dispersions, identifiability of prior probabilities, and precise and accurate estimation of means and dispersions. The use of discriminant functions for purposes of interpreting ecological relationships is also discussed. It is suggested that the common practice of imputing ecological 'meaning' to the signs and magnitudes of coefficients be replaced by an assessment of 'structure coefficients.' Finally, the potential and limitations of representation of data in canonical space are considered, and some cautionary points are made concerning ecological interpretation of patterns in canonical space.

Spatial distribution of sand fly species (Psychodidae: Phlebtominae), ecological niche, and climatic regionalization in zoonotic foci of cutaneous leishmaniasis, southwest of Iran.

PubMed

Ebrahimi, Sahar; Bordbar, Ali; Rastaghi, Ahmad R Esmaeili; Parvizi, Parviz

2016-06-01

Cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) is a complex vector-borne disease caused by Leishmania parasites that are transmitted by the bite of several species of infected female phlebotomine sand flies. Monthly factor analysis of climatic variables indicated fundamental variables. Principal component-based regionalization was used for recognition of climatic zones using a clustering integrated method that identified five climatic zones based on factor analysis. To investigate spatial distribution of the sand fly species, the kriging method was used as an advanced geostatistical procedure in the ArcGIS modeling system that is beneficial to design measurement plans and to predict the transmission cycle in various regions of Khuzestan province, southwest of Iran. However, more than an 80% probability of P. papatasi was observed in rainy and temperate bio-climatic zones with a high potential of CL transmission. Finding P. sergenti revealed the probability of transmission and distribution patterns of a non-native vector of CL in related zones. These findings could be used as models indicating climatic zones and environmental variables connected to sand fly presence and vector distribution. Furthermore, this information is appropriate for future research efforts into the ecology of Phlebotomine sand flies and for the prevention of CL vector transmission as a public health priority. © 2016 The Society for Vector Ecology.

Relationships between soil and leaf mineral composition are element-specific, environment-dependent and geographically structured in the emerging model Arabidopsis halleri.

PubMed

Stein, Ricardo J; Höreth, Stephan; de Melo, J Romário F; Syllwasschy, Lara; Lee, Gwonjin; Garbin, Mário L; Clemens, Stephan; Krämer, Ute

2017-02-01

Leaf mineral composition, the leaf ionome, reflects the complex interaction between a plant and its environment including local soil composition, an influential factor that can limit species distribution and plant productivity. Here we addressed within-species variation in plant-soil interactions and edaphic adaptation using Arabidopsis halleri, a well-suited model species as a facultative metallophyte and metal hyperaccumulator. We conducted multi-element analysis of 1972 paired leaf and soil samples from 165 European populations of A. halleri, at individual resolution to accommodate soil heterogeneity. Results were further confirmed under standardized conditions upon cultivation of 105 field-collected genotypes on an artificially metal-contaminated soil in growth chamber experiments. Soil-independent between- and within-population variation set apart leaf accumulation of zinc, cadmium and lead from all other nutrient and nonessential elements, concurring with differential hypothesized ecological roles in either biotic interaction or nutrition. For these metals, soil-leaf relationships were element-specific, differed between metalliferous and nonmetalliferous soils and were geographically structured both in the field and under standardized growth conditions, implicating complex scenarios of recent ecological adaptation. Our study provides an example and a reference for future related work and will serve as a basis for the molecular-genetic dissection and ecological analysis of the observed phenotypic variation. © 2016 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2016 New Phytologist Trust.

Applications of Self-Organizing Maps for Ecomorphological Investigations through Early Ontogeny of Fish

PubMed Central

Russo, Tommaso; Scardi, Michele; Cataudella, Stefano

2014-01-01

We propose a new graphical approach to the analysis of multi-temporal morphological and ecological data concerning the life history of fish, which can typically serves models in ecomorphological investigations because they often undergo significant ontogenetic changes. These changes can be very complex and difficult to describe, so that visualization, abstraction and interpretation of the underlying relationships are often impeded. Therefore, classic ecomorphological analyses of covariation between morphology and ecology, performed by means of multivariate techniques, may result in non-exhaustive models. The Self Organizing map (SOM) is a new, effective approach for pursuing this aim. In this paper, lateral outlines of larval stages of gilthead sea bream (Sparus aurata) and dusky grouper (Epinephelus marginatus) were recorded and broken down using by means of Elliptic Fourier Analysis (EFA). Gut contents of the same specimens were also collected and analyzed. Then, shape and trophic habits data were examined by SOM, which allows both a powerful visualization of shape changes and an easy comparison with trophic habit data, via their superimposition onto the trained SOM. Thus, the SOM provides a direct visual approach for matching morphological and ecological changes during fish ontogenesis. This method could be used as a tool to extract and investigate relationships between shape and other sinecological or environmental variables, which cannot be taken into account simultaneously using conventional statistical methods. PMID:24466185

IF ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT IS THE ANSWER, WHAT IS THE QUESTION?

EPA Science Inventory

Ecological risk assessment has become a commonly used tool in policy analysis, but its use is controversial. Opinions are diverse; they range from enthusiastic support to caustic dismissal. Much of the controversy with using risk assessment in ecological policy analysis revolves ...

Are well functioning civil registration and vital statistics systems associated with better health outcomes?

PubMed

Phillips, David E; AbouZahr, Carla; Lopez, Alan D; Mikkelsen, Lene; de Savigny, Don; Lozano, Rafael; Wilmoth, John; Setel, Philip W

2015-10-03

In this Series paper, we examine whether well functioning civil registration and vital statistics (CRVS) systems are associated with improved population health outcomes. We present a conceptual model connecting CRVS to wellbeing, and describe an ecological association between CRVS and health outcomes. The conceptual model posits that the legal identity that civil registration provides to individuals is key to access entitlements and services. Vital statistics produced by CRVS systems provide essential information for public health policy and prevention. These outcomes benefit individuals and societies, including improved health. We use marginal linear models and lag-lead analysis to measure ecological associations between a composite metric of CRVS performance and three health outcomes. Results are consistent with the conceptual model: improved CRVS performance coincides with improved health outcomes worldwide in a temporally consistent manner. Investment to strengthen CRVS systems is not only an important goal for individuals and societies, but also a development imperative that is good for health. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Benefits of using a Social-Ecological Systems Approach to Conceptualize and Model Wetlands Restoration

EPA Science Inventory

Using a social-ecological systems (SES) perspective to examine wetland restoration helps decision-makers recognize interdependencies and relations between ecological and social components of coupled systems. Conceptual models are an invaluable tool to capture, visualize, and orga...

A CONCEPTUAL MODEL FOR MULTI-SCALAR ASSESSMENTS OF ESTUARINE ECOLOGICAL INTEGRITY

EPA Science Inventory

A conceptual model was developed that relates an estuarine system's anthropogenic inputs to it's ecological integrity. Ecological integrity is operationally defined as an emergent property of an ecosystem that exists when the structural components are complete and the functional ...

DYNAMIC LANDSCAPES, STABILITY AND ECOLOGICAL MODELING

EPA Science Inventory

The image of a ball rolling along a series of hills and valleys is an effective heuristic by which to communicate stability concepts in ecology. However, the dynamics of this landscape model have little to do with ecological systems. Other landscape representations, however, are ...

Chaos and insect ecology

Treesearch

Jesse A. Logan; Fred P. Hain

1990-01-01

Recent advances in applied mathematical analysis have uncovered a fascinating and unexpected dynamical richness that underlies behavior of even the simplest non-linear mathematical models. Due to the complexity of solutions to these non-linear equations, a new mathematical term, chaos, has been coined to describe the resulting dynamics. This term captures the notion...

Inverse Demographic Analysis of Compensatory Responses to Resource Limitation in the Mysid Crustacean Americamysis bahia

EPA Science Inventory

Most observations of stressor effects on marine crustaceans are made on individuals or even-aged cohorts. Results of these studies are difficult to translate into ecological predictions, either because life cycle models are incomplete, or because stressor effects on mixed age po...

A vegetation mapping strategy for conifer forests by combining airborne LiDAR data and aerial imagery

Treesearch

Yanjun Su; Qinghua Guo; Danny L. Fry; Brandon M. Collins; Maggi Kelly; Jacob P. Flanagan; John J. Battles

2016-01-01

Abstract. Accurate vegetation mapping is critical for natural resources management, ecological analysis, and hydrological modeling, among other tasks. Remotely sensed multispectral and hyperspectral imageries have proved to be valuable inputs to the vegetation mapping process, but they can provide only limited vegetation structure...

Multinational Corporations, Democracy and Child Mortality: A Quantitative, Cross-National Analysis of Developing Countries

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shandra, John M.; Nobles, Jenna E.; London, Bruce; Williamson, John B.

2005-01-01

This study presents quantitative, sociological models designed to account for cross-national variation in child mortality. We consider variables linked to five different theoretical perspectives that include the economic modernization, social modernization, political modernization, ecological-evolutionary, and dependency perspectives. The study is…

Quantifying the potential impacts of fuel treatments on wildfire suppression costs

Treesearch

Matthew P. Thompson; Nicole M. Vaillant; Jessica R. Haas; Krista M. Gebert; Keith D. Stockmann

2013-01-01

Modeling the impacts and effects of hazardous fuel reduction treatments is a pressing issue within the wildfire management community. Prospective evaluation of fuel treatment effectiveness allows for comparison of alternative treatment strategies in terms of socioeconomic and ecological impacts and facilitates analysis of tradeoffs across land-management objectives....

DEVELOPMENT OF PROTEIN PROFILE TECHNOLOGY TO EVALUATE ECOLOGICAL EFFECTS OF ENVIRONMENTAL CHEMICALS USING A SMALL FISH MODEL

EPA Science Inventory

The rationale for this research is: i) Protein expression changes with life stage, disease, tissue type and environmental stressors; ii) Technology allows rapid analysis of large numbers of proteins to provide protein expression profiles; iii) Protein profiles are used as specifi...

Neighborhood Context and Police Vigor: A Multilevel Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sobol, James J.; Wu, Yuning; Sun, Ivan Y.

2013-01-01

This study provides a partial test of Klinger's ecological theory of police behavior using hierarchical linear modeling on 1,677 suspects who had encounters with police within 24 beats. The current study used data from four sources originally collected by the Project on Policing Neighborhoods (POPN), including systematic social observation,…

Purpose, processes, partnerships, and products: four Ps to advance participatory socio-environmental modeling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gray, Steven; Voinov, Alexey; Paolisso, Michael; Jordan, Rebecca; BenDor, Todd; Bommel, Pierre; Glynn, Pierre D.; Hedelin, Beatrice; Hubacek, Klaus; Introne, Josh; Kolagani, Nagesh; Laursen, Bethany; Prell, Christina; Schmitt-Olabisi, Laura; Singer, Alison; Sterling, Eleanor J.; Zellner, Moira

2018-01-01

Including stakeholders in environmental model building and analysis is an increasingly popular approach to understanding ecological change. This is because stakeholders often hold valuable knowledge about socio-environmental dynamics and collaborative forms of modeling produce important boundary objects used to collectively reason about environmental problems. Although the number of participatory modeling (PM) case studies and the number of researchers adopting these approaches has grown in recent years, the lack of standardized reporting and limited reproducibility have prevented PM's establishment and advancement as a cohesive field of study. We suggest a four-dimensional framework (4P) that includes reporting on dimensions of (1) the Purpose for selecting a PM approach (the why); (2) the Process by which the public was involved in model building or evaluation (the how); (3) the Partnerships formed (the who); and (4) the Products that resulted from these efforts (the what). We highlight four case studies that use common PM software-based approaches (fuzzy cognitive mapping, agent-based modeling, system dynamics, and participatory geospatial modeling) to understand human–environment interactions and the consequences of ecological changes, including bushmeat hunting in Tanzania and Cameroon, agricultural production and deforestation in Zambia, and groundwater management in India. We demonstrate how standardizing communication about PM case studies can lead to innovation and new insights about model-based reasoning in support of ecological policy development. We suggest that our 4P framework and reporting approach provides a way for new hypotheses to be identified and tested in the growing field of PM.

Global Sensitivity of Simulated Water Balance Indicators Under Future Climate Change in the Colorado Basin

DOE PAGES

Bennett, Katrina Eleanor; Urrego Blanco, Jorge Rolando; Jonko, Alexandra; ...

2017-11-20

The Colorado River basin is a fundamentally important river for society, ecology and energy in the United States. Streamflow estimates are often provided using modeling tools which rely on uncertain parameters; sensitivity analysis can help determine which parameters impact model results. Despite the fact that simulated flows respond to changing climate and vegetation in the basin, parameter sensitivity of the simulations under climate change has rarely been considered. In this study, we conduct a global sensitivity analysis to relate changes in runoff, evapotranspiration, snow water equivalent and soil moisture to model parameters in the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model.more » Here, we combine global sensitivity analysis with a space-filling Latin Hypercube sampling of the model parameter space and statistical emulation of the VIC model to examine sensitivities to uncertainties in 46 model parameters following a variance-based approach.« less

Structural modeling and analysis of an effluent treatment process for electroplating--a graph theoretic approach.

PubMed

Kumar, Abhishek; Clement, Shibu; Agrawal, V P

2010-07-15

An attempt is made to address a few ecological and environment issues by developing different structural models for effluent treatment system for electroplating. The effluent treatment system is defined with the help of different subsystems contributing to waste minimization. Hierarchical tree and block diagram showing all possible interactions among subsystems are proposed. These non-mathematical diagrams are converted into mathematical models for design improvement, analysis, comparison, storage retrieval and commercially off-the-shelf purchases of different subsystems. This is achieved by developing graph theoretic model, matrix models and variable permanent function model. Analysis is carried out by permanent function, hierarchical tree and block diagram methods. Storage and retrieval is done using matrix models. The methodology is illustrated with the help of an example. Benefits to the electroplaters/end user are identified. 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Analysis of the sensitivity properties of a model of vector-borne bubonic plague.

PubMed

Buzby, Megan; Neckels, David; Antolin, Michael F; Estep, Donald

2008-09-06

Model sensitivity is a key to evaluation of mathematical models in ecology and evolution, especially in complex models with numerous parameters. In this paper, we use some recently developed methods for sensitivity analysis to study the parameter sensitivity of a model of vector-borne bubonic plague in a rodent population proposed by Keeling & Gilligan. The new sensitivity tools are based on a variational analysis involving the adjoint equation. The new approach provides a relatively inexpensive way to obtain derivative information about model output with respect to parameters. We use this approach to determine the sensitivity of a quantity of interest (the force of infection from rats and their fleas to humans) to various model parameters, determine a region over which linearization at a specific parameter reference point is valid, develop a global picture of the output surface, and search for maxima and minima in a given region in the parameter space.

Global Sensitivity of Simulated Water Balance Indicators Under Future Climate Change in the Colorado Basin

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bennett, Katrina Eleanor; Urrego Blanco, Jorge Rolando; Jonko, Alexandra

The Colorado River basin is a fundamentally important river for society, ecology and energy in the United States. Streamflow estimates are often provided using modeling tools which rely on uncertain parameters; sensitivity analysis can help determine which parameters impact model results. Despite the fact that simulated flows respond to changing climate and vegetation in the basin, parameter sensitivity of the simulations under climate change has rarely been considered. In this study, we conduct a global sensitivity analysis to relate changes in runoff, evapotranspiration, snow water equivalent and soil moisture to model parameters in the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model.more » Here, we combine global sensitivity analysis with a space-filling Latin Hypercube sampling of the model parameter space and statistical emulation of the VIC model to examine sensitivities to uncertainties in 46 model parameters following a variance-based approach.« less

Population response to climate change: linear vs. non-linear modeling approaches.

PubMed

Ellis, Alicia M; Post, Eric

2004-03-31

Research on the ecological consequences of global climate change has elicited a growing interest in the use of time series analysis to investigate population dynamics in a changing climate. Here, we compare linear and non-linear models describing the contribution of climate to the density fluctuations of the population of wolves on Isle Royale, Michigan from 1959 to 1999. The non-linear self excitatory threshold autoregressive (SETAR) model revealed that, due to differences in the strength and nature of density dependence, relatively small and large populations may be differentially affected by future changes in climate. Both linear and non-linear models predict a decrease in the population of wolves with predicted changes in climate. Because specific predictions differed between linear and non-linear models, our study highlights the importance of using non-linear methods that allow the detection of non-linearity in the strength and nature of density dependence. Failure to adopt a non-linear approach to modelling population response to climate change, either exclusively or in addition to linear approaches, may compromise efforts to quantify ecological consequences of future warming.

Ecological correlates of population genetic structure: a comparative approach using a vertebrate metacommunity.

PubMed

Manier, Mollie K; Arnold, Stevan J

2006-12-07

Identifying ecological factors associated with population genetic differentiation is important for understanding microevolutionary processes and guiding the management of threatened populations. We identified ecological correlates of several population genetic parameters for three interacting species (two garter snakes and an anuran) that occupy a common landscape. Using multiple regression analysis, we found that species interactions were more important in explaining variation in population genetic parameters than habitat and nearest-neighbour characteristics. Effective population size was best explained by census size, while migration was associated with differences in species abundance. In contrast, genetic distance was poorly explained by the ecological correlates that we tested, but geographical distance was prominent in models for all species. We found substantially different population dynamics for the prey species relative to the two predators, characterized by larger effective sizes, lower gene flow and a state of migration-drift equilibrium. We also identified an escarpment formed by a series of block faults that serves as a barrier to dispersal for the predators. Our results suggest that successful landscape-level management should incorporate genetic and ecological data for all relevant species, because even closely associated species can exhibit very different population genetic dynamics on the same landscape.

A Bayesian approach for temporally scaling climate for modeling ecological systems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Post van der Burg, Max; Anteau, Michael J.; McCauley, Lisa A.; Wiltermuth, Mark T.

2016-01-01

With climate change becoming more of concern, many ecologists are including climate variables in their system and statistical models. The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) is a drought index that has potential advantages in modeling ecological response variables, including a flexible computation of the index over different timescales. However, little development has been made in terms of the choice of timescale for SPEI. We developed a Bayesian modeling approach for estimating the timescale for SPEI and demonstrated its use in modeling wetland hydrologic dynamics in two different eras (i.e., historical [pre-1970] and contemporary [post-2003]). Our goal was to determine whether differences in climate between the two eras could explain changes in the amount of water in wetlands. Our results showed that wetland water surface areas tended to be larger in wetter conditions, but also changed less in response to climate fluctuations in the contemporary era. We also found that the average timescale parameter was greater in the historical period, compared with the contemporary period. We were not able to determine whether this shift in timescale was due to a change in the timing of wet–dry periods or whether it was due to changes in the way wetlands responded to climate. Our results suggest that perhaps some interaction between climate and hydrologic response may be at work, and further analysis is needed to determine which has a stronger influence. Despite this, we suggest that our modeling approach enabled us to estimate the relevant timescale for SPEI and make inferences from those estimates. Likewise, our approach provides a mechanism for using prior information with future data to assess whether these patterns may continue over time. We suggest that ecologists consider using temporally scalable climate indices in conjunction with Bayesian analysis for assessing the role of climate in ecological systems.

Study the Seasonal Variability of Plankton and Forage Fish in the Gulf of Khambhat Using Npzfd Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, V.; Kumar, S.

2016-02-01

Numerical modelling of marine ecology exploits several assumptions and it is indeed quite challenging to include marine ecological phenomena into a mathematical framework with too many unknown parameters. The governing ordinary differential equations represent the interaction of the biological and chemical processes in a marine environment. The key concern in the development of a numerical models are parameterizations based on output, viz., mathematical modelling of ecological system mainly depends on parameters and its variations. Almost, all constituents of each trophic level of marine food web are depended on phytoplankton, which are mostly influenced by initial slope of P-I curve and nutrient stock in the study domain. Whereas, the earlier plankton dynamic models rarely include a compartment of small fish and as an agent in zooplankton mortality, which is most important for the modelling of higher trophic level of marine species. A compartment of forage fish in the modelling of plankton dynamics has been given more realistic mortality rates of plankton, viz., they feed upon phytoplankton and zooplankton. The inclusion of an additional compartment increases complexity of earlier plankton dynamics model as it introduces additional unknown parameters, which has been specified for performing the numerical simulations.As a case study we applied our analysis to explain the aquatic ecology of Gulf of Khambhat (19o 48' N - 22o20' N, 65o E - 72o40' E), west coast of India, which has rich bio-diversity and a high productive area in the form of plankton and forage fish. It has elevated turbidity and varying geography location, viz., one of the regions among world's ocean with high biological productivity.The model presented in this study is able to bring out the essential features of the observed data; that includes the bimodal oscillations in the observed data, monthly mean chlorophyll-a in the SeaWiFs/MODIS Aqua data and in-situ data of plankton. The additional compartment of forage fish and detritus in NPZFD model represents a major structural difference from the earlier NPZ model.

Integration of research infrastructures and ecosystem models toward development of predictive ecology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luo, Y.; Huang, Y.; Jiang, J.; MA, S.; Saruta, V.; Liang, G.; Hanson, P. J.; Ricciuto, D. M.; Milcu, A.; Roy, J.

2017-12-01

The past two decades have witnessed rapid development in sensor technology. Built upon the sensor development, large research infrastructure facilities, such as National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) and FLUXNET, have been established. Through networking different kinds of sensors and other data collections at many locations all over the world, those facilities generate large volumes of ecological data every day. The big data from those facilities offer an unprecedented opportunity for advancing our understanding of ecological processes, educating teachers and students, supporting decision-making, and testing ecological theory. The big data from the major research infrastructure facilities also provides foundation for developing predictive ecology. Indeed, the capability to predict future changes in our living environment and natural resources is critical to decision making in a world where the past is no longer a clear guide to the future. We are living in a period marked by rapid climate change, profound alteration of biogeochemical cycles, unsustainable depletion of natural resources, and deterioration of air and water quality. Projecting changes in future ecosystem services to the society becomes essential not only for science but also for policy making. We will use this panel format to outline major opportunities and challenges in integrating research infrastructure and ecosystem models toward developing predictive ecology. Meanwhile, we will also show results from an interactive model-experiment System - Ecological Platform for Assimilating Data into models (EcoPAD) - that have been implemented at the Spruce and Peatland Responses Under Climatic and Environmental change (SPRUCE) experiment in Northern Minnesota and Montpellier Ecotron, France. EcoPAD is developed by integrating web technology, eco-informatics, data assimilation techniques, and ecosystem modeling. EcoPAD is designed to streamline data transfer seamlessly from research infrastructure facilities to model simulation, data assimilation, and ecological forecasting.

Progress and challenges in coupled hydrodynamic-ecological estuarine modeling.

PubMed

Ganju, Neil K; Brush, Mark J; Rashleigh, Brenda; Aretxabaleta, Alfredo L; Del Barrio, Pilar; Grear, Jason S; Harris, Lora A; Lake, Samuel J; McCardell, Grant; O'Donnell, James; Ralston, David K; Signell, Richard P; Testa, Jeremy M; Vaudrey, Jamie M P

2016-03-01

Numerical modeling has emerged over the last several decades as a widely accepted tool for investigations in environmental sciences. In estuarine research, hydrodynamic and ecological models have moved along parallel tracks with regard to complexity, refinement, computational power, and incorporation of uncertainty. Coupled hydrodynamic-ecological models have been used to assess ecosystem processes and interactions, simulate future scenarios, and evaluate remedial actions in response to eutrophication, habitat loss, and freshwater diversion. The need to couple hydrodynamic and ecological models to address research and management questions is clear, because dynamic feedbacks between biotic and physical processes are critical interactions within ecosystems. In this review we present historical and modern perspectives on estuarine hydrodynamic and ecological modeling, consider model limitations, and address aspects of model linkage, skill assessment, and complexity. We discuss the balance between spatial and temporal resolution and present examples using different spatiotemporal scales. Finally, we recommend future lines of inquiry, approaches to balance complexity and uncertainty, and model transparency and utility. It is idealistic to think we can pursue a "theory of everything" for estuarine models, but recent advances suggest that models for both scientific investigations and management applications will continue to improve in terms of realism, precision, and accuracy.

Progress and challenges in coupled hydrodynamic-ecological estuarine modeling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ganju, Neil K.; Brush, Mark J.; Rashleigh, Brenda; Aretxabaleta, Alfredo L.; del Barrio, Pilar; Grear, Jason S.; Harris, Lora A.; Lake, Samuel J.; McCardell, Grant; O'Donnell, James; Ralston, David K.; Signell, Richard P.; Testa, Jeremy; Vaudrey, Jamie M. P.

2016-01-01

Numerical modeling has emerged over the last several decades as a widely accepted tool for investigations in environmental sciences. In estuarine research, hydrodynamic and ecological models have moved along parallel tracks with regard to complexity, refinement, computational power, and incorporation of uncertainty. Coupled hydrodynamic-ecological models have been used to assess ecosystem processes and interactions, simulate future scenarios, and evaluate remedial actions in response to eutrophication, habitat loss, and freshwater diversion. The need to couple hydrodynamic and ecological models to address research and management questions is clear because dynamic feedbacks between biotic and physical processes are critical interactions within ecosystems. In this review, we present historical and modern perspectives on estuarine hydrodynamic and ecological modeling, consider model limitations, and address aspects of model linkage, skill assessment, and complexity. We discuss the balance between spatial and temporal resolution and present examples using different spatiotemporal scales. Finally, we recommend future lines of inquiry, approaches to balance complexity and uncertainty, and model transparency and utility. It is idealistic to think we can pursue a “theory of everything” for estuarine models, but recent advances suggest that models for both scientific investigations and management applications will continue to improve in terms of realism, precision, and accuracy.

Progress and challenges in coupled hydrodynamic-ecological estuarine modeling

PubMed Central

Ganju, Neil K.; Brush, Mark J.; Rashleigh, Brenda; Aretxabaleta, Alfredo L.; del Barrio, Pilar; Grear, Jason S.; Harris, Lora A.; Lake, Samuel J.; McCardell, Grant; O’Donnell, James; Ralston, David K.; Signell, Richard P.; Testa, Jeremy M.; Vaudrey, Jamie M.P.

2016-01-01

Numerical modeling has emerged over the last several decades as a widely accepted tool for investigations in environmental sciences. In estuarine research, hydrodynamic and ecological models have moved along parallel tracks with regard to complexity, refinement, computational power, and incorporation of uncertainty. Coupled hydrodynamic-ecological models have been used to assess ecosystem processes and interactions, simulate future scenarios, and evaluate remedial actions in response to eutrophication, habitat loss, and freshwater diversion. The need to couple hydrodynamic and ecological models to address research and management questions is clear, because dynamic feedbacks between biotic and physical processes are critical interactions within ecosystems. In this review we present historical and modern perspectives on estuarine hydrodynamic and ecological modeling, consider model limitations, and address aspects of model linkage, skill assessment, and complexity. We discuss the balance between spatial and temporal resolution and present examples using different spatiotemporal scales. Finally, we recommend future lines of inquiry, approaches to balance complexity and uncertainty, and model transparency and utility. It is idealistic to think we can pursue a “theory of everything” for estuarine models, but recent advances suggest that models for both scientific investigations and management applications will continue to improve in terms of realism, precision, and accuracy. PMID:27721675

Health risk assessment of semi-volatile organic pollutants in Lhasa River China.

PubMed

Liu, Feng; Liu, Yan; Jiang, Dongsheng; Zhang, Rongfei; Cui, Yibin; Li, Mei

2014-05-01

The semi-volatile organic compounds in Lhasa River were determined qualitatively and quantitatively by gas chromatography method with mass spectrometric detection. Total concentrations of 23 organic pollutants in samples from five sites ranged from 1.56 to 2.78 μg/L. The average concentrations for ΣPAEs, ΣPAHs and ΣBTEXs obtained in this study were 1.53, 0.33 and 0.51 μg/L, respectively. Moreover, the results of analysis of variable showed that there were significant differences (P < 0.05) among the sites for levels of ΣPAHs, ΣPAEs and ΣBTEXs. Cluster analysis was applied to detect spatial similarity for grouping of sites under the monitoring network. The results indicated that the five sites in this study could be divided into two significant groups, i.e. low and high pollutant groups. Health risk assessment was conducted by multimedia environmental goals (MEG), risk quotient (RQ) for each pollutant and hazard quotient (HQ) approach from USA ecological risk assessment (ERA) for screening stage. Calculated both total ambient severity and RQ were less than 1 and therefore minimal risk to human and ecological health. For analysis results of HQ, whether for the ingestion exposure or dermal adsorption pathway were all less than 1, the results also agreed with the RQ model and MEG model for evaluating the potential for adverse health effects due to exposure semi-volatile organic compounds from surface water. Therefore, SVOCs in Lhasa River posed little or no threat to the health of local consumers and ecological environment.

Synthesizing models useful for ecohydrology and ecohydraulic approaches: An emphasis on integrating models to address complex research questions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Brewer, Shannon K.; Worthington, Thomas A.; Mollenhauer, Robert

Ecohydrology combines empiricism, data analytics, and the integration of models to characterize linkages between ecological and hydrological processes. A challenge for practitioners is determining which models best generalizes heterogeneity in hydrological behaviour, including water fluxes across spatial and temporal scales, integrating environmental and socio–economic activities to determine best watershed management practices and data requirements. We conducted a literature review and synthesis of hydrologic, hydraulic, water quality, and ecological models designed for solving interdisciplinary questions. We reviewed 1,275 papers and identified 178 models that have the capacity to answer an array of research questions about ecohydrology or ecohydraulics. Of these models,more » 43 were commonly applied due to their versatility, accessibility, user–friendliness, and excellent user–support. Forty–one of 43 reviewed models were linked to at least 1 other model especially: Water Quality Analysis Simulation Program (linked to 21 other models), Soil and Water Assessment Tool (19), and Hydrologic Engineering Center's River Analysis System (15). However, model integration was still relatively infrequent. There was substantial variation in model applications, possibly an artefact of the regional focus of research questions, simplicity of use, quality of user–support efforts, or a limited understanding of model applicability. Simply increasing the interoperability of model platforms, transformation of models to user–friendly forms, increasing user–support, defining the reliability and risk associated with model results, and increasing awareness of model applicability may promote increased use of models across subdisciplines. Furthermore, the current availability of models allows an array of interdisciplinary questions to be addressed, and model choice relates to several factors including research objective, model complexity, ability to link to other models, and interface choice.« less

Synthesizing models useful for ecohydrology and ecohydraulic approaches: An emphasis on integrating models to address complex research questions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brewer, Shannon K.; Worthington, Thomas; Mollenhauer, Robert; Stewart, David; McManamay, Ryan; Guertault, Lucie; Moore, Desiree

2018-01-01

Ecohydrology combines empiricism, data analytics, and the integration of models to characterize linkages between ecological and hydrological processes. A challenge for practitioners is determining which models best generalizes heterogeneity in hydrological behaviour, including water fluxes across spatial and temporal scales, integrating environmental and socio‐economic activities to determine best watershed management practices and data requirements. We conducted a literature review and synthesis of hydrologic, hydraulic, water quality, and ecological models designed for solving interdisciplinary questions. We reviewed 1,275 papers and identified 178 models that have the capacity to answer an array of research questions about ecohydrology or ecohydraulics. Of these models, 43 were commonly applied due to their versatility, accessibility, user‐friendliness, and excellent user‐support. Forty‐one of 43 reviewed models were linked to at least 1 other model especially: Water Quality Analysis Simulation Program (linked to 21 other models), Soil and Water Assessment Tool (19), and Hydrologic Engineering Center's River Analysis System (15). However, model integration was still relatively infrequent. There was substantial variation in model applications, possibly an artefact of the regional focus of research questions, simplicity of use, quality of user‐support efforts, or a limited understanding of model applicability. Simply increasing the interoperability of model platforms, transformation of models to user‐friendly forms, increasing user‐support, defining the reliability and risk associated with model results, and increasing awareness of model applicability may promote increased use of models across subdisciplines. Nonetheless, the current availability of models allows an array of interdisciplinary questions to be addressed, and model choice relates to several factors including research objective, model complexity, ability to link to other models, and interface choice.

Synthesizing models useful for ecohydrology and ecohydraulic approaches: An emphasis on integrating models to address complex research questions

DOE PAGES

Brewer, Shannon K.; Worthington, Thomas A.; Mollenhauer, Robert; ...

2018-04-06

Ecohydrology combines empiricism, data analytics, and the integration of models to characterize linkages between ecological and hydrological processes. A challenge for practitioners is determining which models best generalizes heterogeneity in hydrological behaviour, including water fluxes across spatial and temporal scales, integrating environmental and socio–economic activities to determine best watershed management practices and data requirements. We conducted a literature review and synthesis of hydrologic, hydraulic, water quality, and ecological models designed for solving interdisciplinary questions. We reviewed 1,275 papers and identified 178 models that have the capacity to answer an array of research questions about ecohydrology or ecohydraulics. Of these models,more » 43 were commonly applied due to their versatility, accessibility, user–friendliness, and excellent user–support. Forty–one of 43 reviewed models were linked to at least 1 other model especially: Water Quality Analysis Simulation Program (linked to 21 other models), Soil and Water Assessment Tool (19), and Hydrologic Engineering Center's River Analysis System (15). However, model integration was still relatively infrequent. There was substantial variation in model applications, possibly an artefact of the regional focus of research questions, simplicity of use, quality of user–support efforts, or a limited understanding of model applicability. Simply increasing the interoperability of model platforms, transformation of models to user–friendly forms, increasing user–support, defining the reliability and risk associated with model results, and increasing awareness of model applicability may promote increased use of models across subdisciplines. Furthermore, the current availability of models allows an array of interdisciplinary questions to be addressed, and model choice relates to several factors including research objective, model complexity, ability to link to other models, and interface choice.« less

Life as a sober citizen: Aldo Leopold's Wildlife Ecology 118

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Theiss, Nancy Stearns

This historic case study addressed the issue of the lack of citizen action toward environmentally responsible behavior. Although there have been studies regarding components of environmental responsible behavior [ERB], there has been little focus on historic models of exemplary figures of ERB. This study examined one of the first conservation courses in the United States, Wildlife Ecology 118, taught by Aldo Leopold (1887--1948) for 13 years at the University of Wisconsin. Today, Aldo Leopold is recognized as an exemplary conservationist whose land ethic is cited as providing the ecological approach needed for understanding the complex issues of modern society. The researcher conjectured that examination of one of the first environmental education courses could support and strengthen environmental education practices by providing a heuristic perspective. The researcher used two different strategies for analysis of the case. For Research Question One---"What were Leopold's teaching strategies in Wildlife Ecology 118?"---the researcher used methods of comparative historical analysis. The researcher examined the learning outcomes that Leopold used in Wildlife Ecology 118 and compared them against a rubric of the Four Strands for Environmental Education (North American Association for Environmental Education [NAAEE], 1999). The Four Strands for Environmental Education are the current teaching strategies used by educators. The results indicated that Wildlife Ecology 118 scored high in Knowledge of Processes and Systems and Environmental Problem Solving strands. Leopold relied on historic case examples and animal biographies to build stories that engaged students. Field trips gave students practical experience for environmental knowledge with special emphasis on phenology. For Research Question Two---"What was the context of the lessons in Wildlife Ecology 118?"---the researcher used environmental history methods for analysis. Context provided the knowledge and understanding of Leopold's choices for developing lessons that he thought would engage students to become environmentally responsible citizens. The contexts were grouped into four categories: (a) work and research related, (b) professional development, (c) leisure and, (d) public service. There were five themes that emerged from the course contexts: (a) case histories, (b) animal biographies, (c) phenology application, (d) food chains, and (e) ecosystems. The results of the study indicated that Wildlife Ecology 118 ranks high in areas of environmental problem solving and knowledge of processes and systems. Both of the areas are often difficult for educators to incorporate in their lessons. Through case histories, animal biographies, phenology, ecological diagrams, ecosystem comparisons and field trips, Leopold provides many examples that can be easily updated and used in current classroom practices, both in K--12 and college levels.

Non-linear effects of drought under shade: reconciling physiological and ecological models in plant communities.

PubMed

Holmgren, Milena; Gómez-Aparicio, Lorena; Quero, José Luis; Valladares, Fernando

2012-06-01

The combined effects of shade and drought on plant performance and the implications for species interactions are highly debated in plant ecology. Empirical evidence for positive and negative effects of shade on the performance of plants under dry conditions supports two contrasting theoretical models about the role of shade under dry conditions: the trade-off and the facilitation hypotheses. We performed a meta-analysis of field and greenhouse studies evaluating the effects of drought at two or more irradiance levels on nine response variables describing plant physiological condition, growth, and survival. We explored differences in plant response across plant functional types, ecosystem types and methodological approaches. The data were best fit using quadratic models indicating a humped-back shape response to drought along an irradiance gradient for survival, whole plant biomass, maximum photosynthetic capacity, stomatal conductance and maximal photochemical efficiency. Drought effects were ameliorated at intermediate irradiance, becoming more severe at higher or lower light levels. This general pattern was maintained when controlling for potential variations in the strength of the drought treatment among light levels. Our quantitative meta-analysis indicates that dense shade ameliorates drought especially among drought-intolerant and shade-tolerant species. Wet tropical species showed larger negative effects of drought with increasing irradiance than semiarid and cold temperate species. Non-linear responses to irradiance were stronger under field conditions than under controlled greenhouse conditions. Non-linear responses to drought along the irradiance gradient reconciliate opposing views in plant ecology, indicating that facilitation is more likely within certain range of environmental conditions, fading under deep shade, especially for drought-tolerant species.

Common Challenges for Ecological Modelling: Synthesis of Facilitated Discussions Held at the Symposia Organized for the Conference of the International Society for Ecological Modelling in Quebec City, Canada (October 6-9, 2009)

EPA Science Inventory

The symposia organized for the conference of the International Society for Ecological Modelling (ISEM 2009) included facilitated discussion sessions following formal presentations. Each symposium focused on a specific subject, and all the subjects could be classified into three b...

Framework for analyzing ecological trait-based models in multidimensional niche spaces

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Biancalani, Tommaso; DeVille, Lee; Goldenfeld, Nigel

2015-05-01

We develop a theoretical framework for analyzing ecological models with a multidimensional niche space. Our approach relies on the fact that ecological niches are described by sequences of symbols, which allows us to include multiple phenotypic traits. Ecological drivers, such as competitive exclusion, are modeled by introducing the Hamming distance between two sequences. We show that a suitable transform diagonalizes the community interaction matrix of these models, making it possible to predict the conditions for niche differentiation and, close to the instability onset, the asymptotically long time population distributions of niches. We exemplify our method using the Lotka-Volterra equations with an exponential competition kernel.

Using circuit theory to model connectivity in ecology, evolution, and conservation.

PubMed

McRae, Brad H; Dickson, Brett G; Keitt, Timothy H; Shah, Viral B

2008-10-01

Connectivity among populations and habitats is important for a wide range of ecological processes. Understanding, preserving, and restoring connectivity in complex landscapes requires connectivity models and metrics that are reliable, efficient, and process based. We introduce a new class of ecological connectivity models based in electrical circuit theory. Although they have been applied in other disciplines, circuit-theoretic connectivity models are new to ecology. They offer distinct advantages over common analytic connectivity models, including a theoretical basis in random walk theory and an ability to evaluate contributions of multiple dispersal pathways. Resistance, current, and voltage calculated across graphs or raster grids can be related to ecological processes (such as individual movement and gene flow) that occur across large population networks or landscapes. Efficient algorithms can quickly solve networks with millions of nodes, or landscapes with millions of raster cells. Here we review basic circuit theory, discuss relationships between circuit and random walk theories, and describe applications in ecology, evolution, and conservation. We provide examples of how circuit models can be used to predict movement patterns and fates of random walkers in complex landscapes and to identify important habitat patches and movement corridors for conservation planning.

Handbook of capture-recapture analysis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Amstrup, Steven C.; McDonald, Trent L.; Manly, Bryan F.J.

2005-01-01

Every day, biologists in parkas, raincoats, and rubber boots go into the field to capture and mark a variety of animal species. Back in the office, statisticians create analytical models for the field biologists' data. But many times, representatives of the two professions do not fully understand one another's roles. This book bridges this gap by helping biologists understand state-of-the-art statistical methods for analyzing capture-recapture data. In so doing, statisticians will also become more familiar with the design of field studies and with the real-life issues facing biologists.Reliable outcomes of capture-recapture studies are vital to answering key ecological questions. Is the population increasing or decreasing? Do more or fewer animals have a particular characteristic? In answering these questions, biologists cannot hope to capture and mark entire populations. And frequently, the populations change unpredictably during a study. Thus, increasingly sophisticated models have been employed to convert data into answers to ecological questions. This book, by experts in capture-recapture analysis, introduces the most up-to-date methods for data analysis while explaining the theory behind those methods. Thorough, concise, and portable, it will be immensely useful to biologists, biometricians, and statisticians, students in both fields, and anyone else engaged in the capture-recapture process.

Ecological Assets and Academic Procrastination among Adolescents: The Mediating Role of Commitment to Learning.

PubMed

Chen, Bin-Bin; Han, Wen

2017-01-01

Academic procrastination is defined as a purposive delay of academic tasks that must be completed. Within the framework of the ecological model of resiliency, this study examined how ecological assets were related to academic procrastination among adolescents. Participants in the study were 577 adolescents (53.5% boys) from Shanghai, China. They completed measures of ecological assets, commitment to learning, and academic procrastination. Structural equation modeling revealed that, as predicted, ecological assets were negatively associated with academic procrastination. In addition, commitment to learning fully mediated the association between ecological assets and academic procrastination. Implications of the present findings are discussed.

Ecological Assets and Academic Procrastination among Adolescents: The Mediating Role of Commitment to Learning

PubMed Central

Chen, Bin-Bin; Han, Wen

2017-01-01

Academic procrastination is defined as a purposive delay of academic tasks that must be completed. Within the framework of the ecological model of resiliency, this study examined how ecological assets were related to academic procrastination among adolescents. Participants in the study were 577 adolescents (53.5% boys) from Shanghai, China. They completed measures of ecological assets, commitment to learning, and academic procrastination. Structural equation modeling revealed that, as predicted, ecological assets were negatively associated with academic procrastination. In addition, commitment to learning fully mediated the association between ecological assets and academic procrastination. Implications of the present findings are discussed. PMID:29379451

The South Florida Ecosystem Portfolio Model - A Map-Based Multicriteria Ecological, Economic, and Community Land-Use Planning Tool

USGS Publications Warehouse

Labiosa, William B.; Bernknopf, Richard; Hearn, Paul; Hogan, Dianna; Strong, David; Pearlstine, Leonard; Mathie, Amy M.; Wein, Anne M.; Gillen, Kevin; Wachter, Susan

2009-01-01

The South Florida Ecosystem Portfolio Model (EPM) prototype is a regional land-use planning Web tool that integrates ecological, economic, and social information and values of relevance to decision-makers and stakeholders. The EPM uses a multicriteria evaluation framework that builds on geographic information system-based (GIS) analysis and spatially-explicit models that characterize important ecological, economic, and societal endpoints and consequences that are sensitive to regional land-use/land-cover (LULC) change. The EPM uses both economics (monetized) and multiattribute utility (nonmonetized) approaches to valuing these endpoints and consequences. This hybrid approach represents a methodological middle ground between rigorous economic and ecological/ environmental scientific approaches. The EPM sacrifices some degree of economic- and ecological-forecasting precision to gain methodological transparency, spatial explicitness, and transferability, while maintaining credibility. After all, even small steps in the direction of including ecosystem services evaluation are an improvement over current land-use planning practice (Boyd and Wainger, 2003). There are many participants involved in land-use decision-making in South Florida, including local, regional, State, and Federal agencies, developers, environmental groups, agricultural groups, and other stakeholders (South Florida Regional Planning Council, 2003, 2004). The EPM's multicriteria evaluation framework is designed to cut across the objectives and knowledge bases of all of these participants. This approach places fundamental importance on social equity and stakeholder participation in land-use decision-making, but makes no attempt to determine normative socially 'optimal' land-use plans. The EPM is thus a map-based set of evaluation tools for planners and stakeholders to use in their deliberations of what is 'best', considering a balancing of disparate interests within a regional perspective. Although issues of regional ecological sustainability can be explored with the EPM (for example, changes in biodiversity potential and regional habitat fragmentation), it does not attempt to define or evaluate long-term ecological sustainability as such. Instead, the EPM is intended to provide transparent first-order indications of the direction of ecological, economic, and community change, not to make detailed predictions of ecological, economic, and social outcomes. In short, the EPM is an attempt to widen the perspectives of its users by integrating natural and social scientific information in a framework that recognizes the diversity of values at stake in South Florida land-use planning. For terrestrial ecosystems, land-cover change is one of the most important direct drivers of changes in ecosystem services (Hassan and others, 2005). More specifically, the fragmentation of habitat from expanding low-density development across landscapes appears to be a major driver of terrestrial species decline and the impairment of terrestrial ecosystem integrity, in some cases causing irreversible impairment from a land-use planning perspective (Brody, 2008; Peck, 1998). Many resource managers and land-use planners have come to realize that evaluating land-use conversions on a parcel-by-parcel basis leads to a fragmented and narrow view of the regional effects of natural land-cover loss to development (Marsh and Lallas, 1995). The EPM is an attempt to integrate important aspects of the coupled natural-system/human-system view from a regional planning perspective. The EPM evaluates proposed land-use changes, both conversion and intensification, in terms of relevant ecological, economic, and social criteria that combine information about probable land-use outcomes, based on ecological and environmental models, as well as value judgments, as expressed in user-modifiable preference models. Based on on-going meetings and interviews with stakeholders and potential tool users we foc

Maintaining the confidentiality of plot locations by exploiting the low sensitivity of forest structure models to different spectral extraction kernels

Treesearch

Sean P. Healey; Elizabeth Lapoint; Gretchen G. Moisen; Scott L. Powell

2011-01-01

The United States Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) unit maintains a large national network of inventory plots.While the consistency and extent of this network make FIA data attractive for ecological modelling, the FIA is charged by statute not to publicly reveal inventory plot locations. However, use of FIA plot data by the remote sensing community...

Detecting temporal trends in species assemblages with bootstrapping procedures and hierarchical models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gotelli, Nicholas J.; Dorazio, Robert M.; Ellison, Aaron M.; Grossman, Gary D.

2010-01-01

Quantifying patterns of temporal trends in species assemblages is an important analytical challenge in community ecology. We describe methods of analysis that can be applied to a matrix of counts of individuals that is organized by species (rows) and time-ordered sampling periods (columns). We first developed a bootstrapping procedure to test the null hypothesis of random sampling from a stationary species abundance distribution with temporally varying sampling probabilities. This procedure can be modified to account for undetected species. We next developed a hierarchical model to estimate species-specific trends in abundance while accounting for species-specific probabilities of detection. We analysed two long-term datasets on stream fishes and grassland insects to demonstrate these methods. For both assemblages, the bootstrap test indicated that temporal trends in abundance were more heterogeneous than expected under the null model. We used the hierarchical model to estimate trends in abundance and identified sets of species in each assemblage that were steadily increasing, decreasing or remaining constant in abundance over more than a decade of standardized annual surveys. Our methods of analysis are broadly applicable to other ecological datasets, and they represent an advance over most existing procedures, which do not incorporate effects of incomplete sampling and imperfect detection.

Information analysis of a spatial database for ecological land classification

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Davis, Frank W.; Dozier, Jeff

1990-01-01

An ecological land classification was developed for a complex region in southern California using geographic information system techniques of map overlay and contingency table analysis. Land classes were identified by mutual information analysis of vegetation pattern in relation to other mapped environmental variables. The analysis was weakened by map errors, especially errors in the digital elevation data. Nevertheless, the resulting land classification was ecologically reasonable and performed well when tested with higher quality data from the region.

[Ecological risk assessment of land use based on exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA): a case study of Haitan Island, Fujian Province].

PubMed

Wu, Jian; Chen, Peng; Wen, Chao-Xiang; Fu, Shi-Feng; Chen, Qing-Hui

2014-07-01

As a novel environment management tool, ecological risk assessment has provided a new perspective for the quantitative evaluation of ecological effects of land-use change. In this study, Haitan Island in Fujian Province was taken as a case. Based on the Landsat TM obtained in 1990, SPOT5 RS images obtained in 2010, general layout planning map of Pingtan Comprehensive Experimental Zone in 2030, as well as the field investigation data, we established an ecological risk index to measure ecological endpoints. By using spatial autocorrelation and semivariance analysis of Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis (ESDA), the ecological risk of Haitan Island under different land-use situations was assessed, including the past (1990), present (2010) and future (2030), and the potential risk and its changing trend were analyzed. The results revealed that the ecological risk index showed obvious scale effect, with strong positive correlation within 3000 meters. High-high (HH) and low-low (LL) aggregations were predominant types in spatial distribution of ecological risk index. The ecological risk index showed significant isotropic characteristics, and its spatial distribution was consistent with Anselin Local Moran I (LISA) distribution during the same period. Dramatic spatial distribution change of each ecological risk area was found among 1990, 2010 and 2030, and the fluctuation trend and amplitude of different ecological risk areas were diverse. The low ecological risk area showed a rise-to-fall trend while the medium and high ecological risk areas showed a fall-to-rise trend. In the planning period, due to intensive anthropogenic disturbance, the high ecological risk area spread throughout the whole region. To reduce the ecological risk in land-use and maintain the regional ecological security, the following ecological risk control strategies could be adopted, i.e., optimizing the spatial pattern of land resources, protecting the key ecoregions and controlling the scale of construction land use.