The Ecosystem Concept and Linking Models of Physical-Chemical Processes to Ecological Responses: Introduction and Annotated Bibliography

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-07-01

Schneider, D. C. 1994. Quantitative ecology. Spatial and temporal scaling. Academic Press. Shugart, H. H. 1990. Ecological models and the ecotone . In: The...ecology and management of aquatic-terrestrial ecotones . Man and the biosphere series, Vol. 4. ed. R. J. Naiman and H. Decamps, 23-36. Paris, France

An ecological process model of systems change.

PubMed

Peirson, Leslea J; Boydell, Katherine M; Ferguson, H Bruce; Ferris, Lorraine E

2011-06-01

In June 2007 the American Journal of Community Psychology published a special issue focused on theories, methods and interventions for systems change which included calls from the editors and authors for theoretical advancement in this field. We propose a conceptual model of systems change that integrates familiar and fundamental community psychology principles (succession, interdependence, cycling of resources, adaptation) and accentuates a process orientation. To situate our framework we offer a definition of systems change and a brief review of the ecological perspective and principles. The Ecological Process Model of Systems Change is depicted, described and applied to a case example of policy driven systems level change in publicly funded social programs. We conclude by identifying salient implications for thinking and action which flow from the Model.

Empirically-based modeling and mapping to consider the co-occurrence of ecological receptors and stressors

EPA Science Inventory

Part of the ecological risk assessment process involves examining the potential for environmental stressors and ecological receptors to co-occur across a landscape. In this study, we introduce a Bayesian joint modeling framework for use in evaluating and mapping the co-occurrence...

Reconstruction of fire regimes through integrated paleoecological proxy data and ecological modeling.

PubMed

Iglesias, Virginia; Yospin, Gabriel I; Whitlock, Cathy

2014-01-01

Fire is a key ecological process affecting vegetation dynamics and land cover. The characteristic frequency, size, and intensity of fire are driven by interactions between top-down climate-driven and bottom-up fuel-related processes. Disentangling climatic from non-climatic drivers of past fire regimes is a grand challenge in Earth systems science, and a topic where both paleoecology and ecological modeling have made substantial contributions. In this manuscript, we (1) review the use of sedimentary charcoal as a fire proxy and the methods used in charcoal-based fire history reconstructions; (2) identify existing techniques for paleoecological modeling; and (3) evaluate opportunities for coupling of paleoecological and ecological modeling approaches to better understand the causes and consequences of past, present, and future fire activity.

Reconstruction of fire regimes through integrated paleoecological proxy data and ecological modeling

PubMed Central

Iglesias, Virginia; Yospin, Gabriel I.; Whitlock, Cathy

2015-01-01

Fire is a key ecological process affecting vegetation dynamics and land cover. The characteristic frequency, size, and intensity of fire are driven by interactions between top-down climate-driven and bottom-up fuel-related processes. Disentangling climatic from non-climatic drivers of past fire regimes is a grand challenge in Earth systems science, and a topic where both paleoecology and ecological modeling have made substantial contributions. In this manuscript, we (1) review the use of sedimentary charcoal as a fire proxy and the methods used in charcoal-based fire history reconstructions; (2) identify existing techniques for paleoecological modeling; and (3) evaluate opportunities for coupling of paleoecological and ecological modeling approaches to better understand the causes and consequences of past, present, and future fire activity. PMID:25657652

Progress and challenges in coupled hydrodynamic-ecological estuarine modeling.

PubMed

Ganju, Neil K; Brush, Mark J; Rashleigh, Brenda; Aretxabaleta, Alfredo L; Del Barrio, Pilar; Grear, Jason S; Harris, Lora A; Lake, Samuel J; McCardell, Grant; O'Donnell, James; Ralston, David K; Signell, Richard P; Testa, Jeremy M; Vaudrey, Jamie M P

2016-03-01

Numerical modeling has emerged over the last several decades as a widely accepted tool for investigations in environmental sciences. In estuarine research, hydrodynamic and ecological models have moved along parallel tracks with regard to complexity, refinement, computational power, and incorporation of uncertainty. Coupled hydrodynamic-ecological models have been used to assess ecosystem processes and interactions, simulate future scenarios, and evaluate remedial actions in response to eutrophication, habitat loss, and freshwater diversion. The need to couple hydrodynamic and ecological models to address research and management questions is clear, because dynamic feedbacks between biotic and physical processes are critical interactions within ecosystems. In this review we present historical and modern perspectives on estuarine hydrodynamic and ecological modeling, consider model limitations, and address aspects of model linkage, skill assessment, and complexity. We discuss the balance between spatial and temporal resolution and present examples using different spatiotemporal scales. Finally, we recommend future lines of inquiry, approaches to balance complexity and uncertainty, and model transparency and utility. It is idealistic to think we can pursue a "theory of everything" for estuarine models, but recent advances suggest that models for both scientific investigations and management applications will continue to improve in terms of realism, precision, and accuracy.

Progress and challenges in coupled hydrodynamic-ecological estuarine modeling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ganju, Neil K.; Brush, Mark J.; Rashleigh, Brenda; Aretxabaleta, Alfredo L.; del Barrio, Pilar; Grear, Jason S.; Harris, Lora A.; Lake, Samuel J.; McCardell, Grant; O'Donnell, James; Ralston, David K.; Signell, Richard P.; Testa, Jeremy; Vaudrey, Jamie M. P.

2016-01-01

Numerical modeling has emerged over the last several decades as a widely accepted tool for investigations in environmental sciences. In estuarine research, hydrodynamic and ecological models have moved along parallel tracks with regard to complexity, refinement, computational power, and incorporation of uncertainty. Coupled hydrodynamic-ecological models have been used to assess ecosystem processes and interactions, simulate future scenarios, and evaluate remedial actions in response to eutrophication, habitat loss, and freshwater diversion. The need to couple hydrodynamic and ecological models to address research and management questions is clear because dynamic feedbacks between biotic and physical processes are critical interactions within ecosystems. In this review, we present historical and modern perspectives on estuarine hydrodynamic and ecological modeling, consider model limitations, and address aspects of model linkage, skill assessment, and complexity. We discuss the balance between spatial and temporal resolution and present examples using different spatiotemporal scales. Finally, we recommend future lines of inquiry, approaches to balance complexity and uncertainty, and model transparency and utility. It is idealistic to think we can pursue a “theory of everything” for estuarine models, but recent advances suggest that models for both scientific investigations and management applications will continue to improve in terms of realism, precision, and accuracy.

Progress and challenges in coupled hydrodynamic-ecological estuarine modeling

PubMed Central

Ganju, Neil K.; Brush, Mark J.; Rashleigh, Brenda; Aretxabaleta, Alfredo L.; del Barrio, Pilar; Grear, Jason S.; Harris, Lora A.; Lake, Samuel J.; McCardell, Grant; O’Donnell, James; Ralston, David K.; Signell, Richard P.; Testa, Jeremy M.; Vaudrey, Jamie M.P.

2016-01-01

Numerical modeling has emerged over the last several decades as a widely accepted tool for investigations in environmental sciences. In estuarine research, hydrodynamic and ecological models have moved along parallel tracks with regard to complexity, refinement, computational power, and incorporation of uncertainty. Coupled hydrodynamic-ecological models have been used to assess ecosystem processes and interactions, simulate future scenarios, and evaluate remedial actions in response to eutrophication, habitat loss, and freshwater diversion. The need to couple hydrodynamic and ecological models to address research and management questions is clear, because dynamic feedbacks between biotic and physical processes are critical interactions within ecosystems. In this review we present historical and modern perspectives on estuarine hydrodynamic and ecological modeling, consider model limitations, and address aspects of model linkage, skill assessment, and complexity. We discuss the balance between spatial and temporal resolution and present examples using different spatiotemporal scales. Finally, we recommend future lines of inquiry, approaches to balance complexity and uncertainty, and model transparency and utility. It is idealistic to think we can pursue a “theory of everything” for estuarine models, but recent advances suggest that models for both scientific investigations and management applications will continue to improve in terms of realism, precision, and accuracy. PMID:27721675

Pathogen survival trajectories: an eco-environmental approach to the modeling of human campylobacteriosis ecology.

PubMed Central

Skelly, Chris; Weinstein, Phil

2003-01-01

Campylobacteriosis, like many human diseases, has its own ecology in which the propagation of human infection and disease depends on pathogen survival and finding new hosts in order to replicate and sustain the pathogen population. The complexity of this process, a process common to other enteric pathogens, has hampered control efforts. Many unknowns remain, resulting in a poorly understood disease ecology. To provide structure to these unknowns and help direct further research and intervention, we propose an eco-environmental modeling approach for campylobacteriosis. This modeling approach follows the pathogen population as it moves through the environments that define the physical structure of its ecology. In this paper, we term the ecologic processes and environments through which these populations move "pathogen survival trajectories." Although such a modeling approach could have veterinary applications, our emphasis is on human campylobacteriosis and focuses on human exposures to Campylobacter through feces, food, and aquatic environments. The pathogen survival trajectories that lead to human exposure include ecologic filters that limit population size, e.g., cooking food to kill Campylobacter. Environmental factors that influence the size of the pathogen reservoirs include temperature, nutrient availability, and moisture availability during the period of time the pathogen population is moving through the environment between infected and susceptible hosts. We anticipate that the modeling approach proposed here will work symbiotically with traditional epidemiologic and microbiologic research to help guide and evaluate the acquisition of new knowledge about the ecology, eventual intervention, and control of campylobacteriosis. PMID:12515674

Neutral Community Dynamics and the Evolution of Species Interactions.

PubMed

Coelho, Marco Túlio P; Rangel, Thiago F

2018-04-01

A contemporary goal in ecology is to determine the ecological and evolutionary processes that generate recurring structural patterns in mutualistic networks. One of the great challenges is testing the capacity of neutral processes to replicate observed patterns in ecological networks, since the original formulation of the neutral theory lacks trophic interactions. Here, we develop a stochastic-simulation neutral model adding trophic interactions to the neutral theory of biodiversity. Without invoking ecological differences among individuals of different species, and assuming that ecological interactions emerge randomly, we demonstrate that a spatially explicit multitrophic neutral model is able to capture the recurrent structural patterns of mutualistic networks (i.e., degree distribution, connectance, nestedness, and phylogenetic signal of species interactions). Nonrandom species distribution, caused by probabilistic events of migration and speciation, create nonrandom network patterns. These findings have broad implications for the interpretation of niche-based processes as drivers of ecological networks, as well as for the integration of network structures with demographic stochasticity.

A 2-D process-based model for suspended sediment dynamics: A first step towards ecological modeling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Achete, F. M.; van der Wegen, M.; Roelvink, D.; Jaffe, B.

2015-01-01

In estuaries suspended sediment concentration (SSC) is one of the most important contributors to turbidity, which influences habitat conditions and ecological functions of the system. Sediment dynamics differs depending on sediment supply and hydrodynamic forcing conditions that vary over space and over time. A robust sediment transport model is a first step in developing a chain of models enabling simulations of contaminants, phytoplankton and habitat conditions. This works aims to determine turbidity levels in the complex-geometry delta of the San Francisco estuary using a process-based approach (Delft3D Flexible Mesh software). Our approach includes a detailed calibration against measured SSC levels, a sensitivity analysis on model parameters and the determination of a yearly sediment budget as well as an assessment of model results in terms of turbidity levels for a single year, water year (WY) 2011. Model results show that our process-based approach is a valuable tool in assessing sediment dynamics and their related ecological parameters over a range of spatial and temporal scales. The model may act as the base model for a chain of ecological models assessing the impact of climate change and management scenarios. Here we present a modeling approach that, with limited data, produces reliable predictions and can be useful for estuaries without a large amount of processes data.

A 2-D process-based model for suspended sediment dynamics: a first step towards ecological modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Achete, F. M.; van der Wegen, M.; Roelvink, D.; Jaffe, B.

2015-06-01

In estuaries suspended sediment concentration (SSC) is one of the most important contributors to turbidity, which influences habitat conditions and ecological functions of the system. Sediment dynamics differs depending on sediment supply and hydrodynamic forcing conditions that vary over space and over time. A robust sediment transport model is a first step in developing a chain of models enabling simulations of contaminants, phytoplankton and habitat conditions. This works aims to determine turbidity levels in the complex-geometry delta of the San Francisco estuary using a process-based approach (Delft3D Flexible Mesh software). Our approach includes a detailed calibration against measured SSC levels, a sensitivity analysis on model parameters and the determination of a yearly sediment budget as well as an assessment of model results in terms of turbidity levels for a single year, water year (WY) 2011. Model results show that our process-based approach is a valuable tool in assessing sediment dynamics and their related ecological parameters over a range of spatial and temporal scales. The model may act as the base model for a chain of ecological models assessing the impact of climate change and management scenarios. Here we present a modeling approach that, with limited data, produces reliable predictions and can be useful for estuaries without a large amount of processes data.

The basis function approach for modeling autocorrelation in ecological data.

PubMed

Hefley, Trevor J; Broms, Kristin M; Brost, Brian M; Buderman, Frances E; Kay, Shannon L; Scharf, Henry R; Tipton, John R; Williams, Perry J; Hooten, Mevin B

2017-03-01

Analyzing ecological data often requires modeling the autocorrelation created by spatial and temporal processes. Many seemingly disparate statistical methods used to account for autocorrelation can be expressed as regression models that include basis functions. Basis functions also enable ecologists to modify a wide range of existing ecological models in order to account for autocorrelation, which can improve inference and predictive accuracy. Furthermore, understanding the properties of basis functions is essential for evaluating the fit of spatial or time-series models, detecting a hidden form of collinearity, and analyzing large data sets. We present important concepts and properties related to basis functions and illustrate several tools and techniques ecologists can use when modeling autocorrelation in ecological data. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

The community ecology of pathogens: coinfection, coexistence and community composition.

PubMed

Seabloom, Eric W; Borer, Elizabeth T; Gross, Kevin; Kendig, Amy E; Lacroix, Christelle; Mitchell, Charles E; Mordecai, Erin A; Power, Alison G

2015-04-01

Disease and community ecology share conceptual and theoretical lineages, and there has been a resurgence of interest in strengthening links between these fields. Building on recent syntheses focused on the effects of host community composition on single pathogen systems, we examine pathogen (microparasite) communities using a stochastic metacommunity model as a starting point to bridge community and disease ecology perspectives. Such models incorporate the effects of core community processes, such as ecological drift, selection and dispersal, but have not been extended to incorporate host-pathogen interactions, such as immunosuppression or synergistic mortality, that are central to disease ecology. We use a two-pathogen susceptible-infected (SI) model to fill these gaps in the metacommunity approach; however, SI models can be intractable for examining species-diverse, spatially structured systems. By placing disease into a framework developed for community ecology, our synthesis highlights areas ripe for progress, including a theoretical framework that incorporates host dynamics, spatial structuring and evolutionary processes, as well as the data needed to test the predictions of such a model. Our synthesis points the way for this framework and demonstrates that a deeper understanding of pathogen community dynamics will emerge from approaches working at the interface of disease and community ecology. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Estimating the ecology of extinct species with paleoecological data assimilation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raiho, A.; McLachlan, J. S.; Dietze, M.

2017-12-01

In order to understand long term, unobservable ecosystem processes, ecologists must use both paleoecoloigcal data and ecosystem models. Models parameterize species competitive interactions using modern data. But, modern ecological or physiological observations are not available for extinct species, making it difficult for models to conceptualize their ecology. For instance, American chestnut (Castanea dentata), who played a large role in forests of northeastern US, was decimated by disease to virtual extinction. Since chestnut's demise, defining its ecology has been controversial. Models typically assume that chestnut's ecology was very similar to oak; They parameterize chestnut like oak species. These assumptions are drawn from paleoecological data, but these data are often reported without uncertainty. Since the paleoecological data are often reported without uncertainty, paleoecological data has never been directly incorporated with ecosystem models. We developed a Bayesian statistical model to estimate fractional composition from paleoecological data with uncertainty. Then, we assimilated this data product into an ecosystem model for long term forest succession using a generalized ensemble adjustment filter to determine which species demographic parameters lead to changes in species composition over the last 2,000 years at Harvard Forest. We found that chestnut was strongly negatively correlated with white pine (Pinus strobus) and red oak (Quercus rubra) in the process covariance matrix, suggesting a strong competitive interaction that is not currently understood by models for forest succession. These findings provide support for utilizing a data assimilation framework to ecologically interpret paleoecological data or data products to learn about the ecology of extinct species.

Exposure to Community Violence: Processes That Increase the Risk for Inner-City Middle School Children

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Salzinger, Suzanne; Ng-Mak, Daisy S.; Feldman, Richard S.; Kam, Chi-Ming; Rosario, Margaret

2006-01-01

An ecologically framed model is presented describing processes accounting for early adolescents' exposure to community violence in high-risk neighborhoods as a function of risk factors in four ecological domains assessed in the prior year. The model was tested for hypothesized pathways along which the combined domains of risk might operate. The…

Integrating Empirical-Modeling Approaches to Improve Understanding of Terrestrial Ecology Processes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

McCarthy, Heather; Luo, Yiqi; Wullschleger, Stan D

Recent decades have seen tremendous increases in the quantity of empirical ecological data collected by individual investigators, as well as through research networks such as FLUXNET (Baldocchi et al., 2001). At the same time, advances in computer technology have facilitated the development and implementation of large and complex land surface and ecological process models. Separately, each of these information streams provides useful, but imperfect information about ecosystems. To develop the best scientific understanding of ecological processes, and most accurately predict how ecosystems may cope with global change, integration of empirical and modeling approaches is necessary. However, true integration - inmore » which models inform empirical research, which in turn informs models (Fig. 1) - is not yet common in ecological research (Luo et al., 2011). The goal of this workshop, sponsored by the Department of Energy, Office of Science, Biological and Environmental Research (BER) program, was to bring together members of the empirical and modeling communities to exchange ideas and discuss scientific practices for increasing empirical - model integration, and to explore infrastructure and/or virtual network needs for institutionalizing empirical - model integration (Yiqi Luo, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK, USA). The workshop included presentations and small group discussions that covered topics ranging from model-assisted experimental design to data driven modeling (e.g. benchmarking and data assimilation) to infrastructure needs for empirical - model integration. Ultimately, three central questions emerged. How can models be used to inform experiments and observations? How can experimental and observational results be used to inform models? What are effective strategies to promote empirical - model integration?« less

Modeling individual animal histories with multistate capture–recapture models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lebreton, Jean-Dominique; Nichols, James D.; Barker, Richard J.; Pradel, Roger; Spendelow, Jeffrey A.

2009-01-01

Many fields of science begin with a phase of exploration and description, followed by investigations of the processes that account for observed patterns. The science of ecology is no exception, and recent decades have seen a focus on understanding key processes underlying the dynamics of ecological systems. In population ecology, emphasis has shifted from the state variable of population size to the demographic processes responsible for changes in this state variable: birth, death, immigration, and emigration. In evolutionary ecology, some of these same demographic processes, rates of birth and death, are also the determinants of fitness. In animal population ecology, the estimation of state variables and their associated vital rates is especially problematic because of the difficulties in sampling such populations and detecting individual animals. Indeed, early capture–recapture models were developed for the purpose of estimating population size, given the reality that all animals are not caught or detected at any sampling occasion. More recently, capture–recapture models for open populations were developed to draw inferences about survival in the face of these same sampling problems. The focus of this paper is on multi‐state mark–recapture models (MSMR), which first appeared in the 1970s but have undergone substantial development in the last 15 years. These models were developed to deal explicitly with biological variation, in that animals in different “states” (classes defined by location, physiology, behavior, reproductive status, etc.) may have different probabilities of survival and detection. Animal transitions between states are also stochastic and themselves of interest. These general models have proven to be extremely useful and provide a way of thinking about a remarkably wide range of important ecological processes. These methods are now at a stage of refinement and sophistication where they can readily be used by biologists to tackle a wide range of important issues in ecology. In this paper, we draw together information on the state of the art in multistate mark–recapture methods, explaining the models and illustrating their use. We provide a modeling philosophy and a series of general principles on how to conduct analyses. We cover key issues and features, and we anticipate the ways in which we expect the models to develop in the years ahead.

A PROCESS FOR SELECTING INDICATORS FOR MONITORING CONDITIONS OF RANGELAND HEALTH (COPY)

EPA Science Inventory

This paper reports on a process for selecting a suite of indicators that, in combination, can be useful in assessing the ecological conditions of rangelands. Conceptual models that depict the structural and functional properties of ecological processes were used to show the linka...

Ecological Dynamics as a Theoretical Framework for Development of Sustainable Behaviours towards the Environment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brymer, Eric; Davids, Keith

2013-01-01

This paper proposes how the theoretical framework of ecological dynamics can provide an influential model of the learner and the learning process to pre-empt effective behaviour changes. Here we argue that ecological dynamics supports a well-established model of the learner ideally suited to the environmental education context because of its…

Linking Adverse Outcome Pathways to Dynamic Energy Budgets: A Conceptual Model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Murphy, Cheryl; Nisbet, Roger; Antczak, Philipp

Ecological risk assessment quantifies the likelihood of undesirable impacts of stressors, primarily at high levels of biological organization. Data used to inform ecological risk assessments come primarily from tests on individual organisms or from suborganismal studies, indicating a disconnect between primary data and protection goals. We know how to relate individual responses to population dynamics using individual-based models, and there are emerging ideas on how to make connections to ecosystem services. However, there is no established methodology to connect effects seen at higher levels of biological organization with suborganismal dynamics, despite progress made in identifying Adverse Outcome Pathways (AOPs) thatmore » link molecular initiating events to ecologically relevant key events. This chapter is a product of a working group at the National Center for Mathematical and Biological Synthesis (NIMBioS) that assessed the feasibility of using dynamic energy budget (DEB) models of individual organisms as a “pivot” connecting suborganismal processes to higher level ecological processes. AOP models quantify explicit molecular, cellular or organ-level processes, but do not offer a route to linking sub-organismal damage to adverse effects on individual growth, reproduction, and survival, which can be propagated to the population level through individual-based models. DEB models describe these processes, but use abstract variables with undetermined connections to suborganismal biology. We propose linking DEB and quantitative AOP models by interpreting AOP key events as measures of damage-inducing processes in a DEB model. Here, we present a conceptual model for linking AOPs to DEB models and review existing modeling tools available for both AOP and DEB.« less

When mechanism matters: Bayesian forecasting using models of ecological diffusion

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hefley, Trevor J.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Russell, Robin E.; Walsh, Daniel P.; Powell, James A.

2017-01-01

Ecological diffusion is a theory that can be used to understand and forecast spatio-temporal processes such as dispersal, invasion, and the spread of disease. Hierarchical Bayesian modelling provides a framework to make statistical inference and probabilistic forecasts, using mechanistic ecological models. To illustrate, we show how hierarchical Bayesian models of ecological diffusion can be implemented for large data sets that are distributed densely across space and time. The hierarchical Bayesian approach is used to understand and forecast the growth and geographic spread in the prevalence of chronic wasting disease in white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus). We compare statistical inference and forecasts from our hierarchical Bayesian model to phenomenological regression-based methods that are commonly used to analyse spatial occurrence data. The mechanistic statistical model based on ecological diffusion led to important ecological insights, obviated a commonly ignored type of collinearity, and was the most accurate method for forecasting.

Recovery after mass extinction: evolutionary assembly in large-scale biosphere dynamics.

PubMed Central

Solé, Ricard V; Montoya, José M; Erwin, Douglas H

2002-01-01

Biotic recoveries following mass extinctions are characterized by a process in which whole ecologies are reconstructed from low-diversity systems, often characterized by opportunistic groups. The recovery process provides an unexpected window to ecosystem dynamics. In many aspects, recovery is very similar to ecological succession, but important differences are also apparently linked to the innovative patterns of niche construction observed in the fossil record. In this paper, we analyse the similarities and differences between ecological succession and evolutionary recovery to provide a preliminary ecological theory of recoveries. A simple evolutionary model with three trophic levels is presented, and its properties (closely resembling those observed in the fossil record) are compared with characteristic patterns of ecological response to disturbances in continuous models of three-level ecosystems. PMID:12079530

A spatially explicit hydro-ecological modeling framework (BEPS-TerrainLab V2.0): Model description and test in a boreal ecosystem in Eastern North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Govind, Ajit; Chen, Jing Ming; Margolis, Hank; Ju, Weimin; Sonnentag, Oliver; Giasson, Marc-André

2009-04-01

SummaryA spatially explicit, process-based hydro-ecological model, BEPS-TerrainLab V2.0, was developed to improve the representation of ecophysiological, hydro-ecological and biogeochemical processes of boreal ecosystems in a tightly coupled manner. Several processes unique to boreal ecosystems were implemented including the sub-surface lateral water fluxes, stratification of vegetation into distinct layers for explicit ecophysiological representation, inclusion of novel spatial upscaling strategies and biogeochemical processes. To account for preferential water fluxes common in humid boreal ecosystems, a novel scheme was introduced based on laboratory analyses. Leaf-scale ecophysiological processes were upscaled to canopy-scale by explicitly considering leaf physiological conditions as affected by light and water stress. The modified model was tested with 2 years of continuous measurements taken at the Eastern Old Black Spruce Site of the Fluxnet-Canada Research Network located in a humid boreal watershed in eastern Canada. Comparison of the simulated and measured ET, water-table depth (WTD), volumetric soil water content (VSWC) and gross primary productivity (GPP) revealed that BEPS-TerrainLab V2.0 simulates hydro-ecological processes with reasonable accuracy. The model was able to explain 83% of the ET, 92% of the GPP variability and 72% of the WTD dynamics. The model suggests that in humid ecosystems such as eastern North American boreal watersheds, topographically driven sub-surface baseflow is the main mechanism of soil water partitioning which significantly affects the local-scale hydrological conditions.

Ecosystem Restoration: Fact or Fancy?

Treesearch

John A. Stanturf; Callie J. Schweitzer; Stephen H. Schoenholtz; James P. Barnett; Charles K. McMahon; Donald J. Tomszak

1998-01-01

Ecological restoration is generally accepted as the reestablishment of natural ecological processes that produce certain dynamic ecosystem properties of structure, function, and processes. But restore to what? The most frequently used conceptual model for the restoration process is the shift of conditions from some current (degraded) dynamic state to some past dynamic...

The basis function approach for modeling autocorrelation in ecological data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hefley, Trevor J.; Broms, Kristin M.; Brost, Brian M.; Buderman, Frances E.; Kay, Shannon L.; Scharf, Henry; Tipton, John; Williams, Perry J.; Hooten, Mevin B.

2017-01-01

Analyzing ecological data often requires modeling the autocorrelation created by spatial and temporal processes. Many seemingly disparate statistical methods used to account for autocorrelation can be expressed as regression models that include basis functions. Basis functions also enable ecologists to modify a wide range of existing ecological models in order to account for autocorrelation, which can improve inference and predictive accuracy. Furthermore, understanding the properties of basis functions is essential for evaluating the fit of spatial or time-series models, detecting a hidden form of collinearity, and analyzing large data sets. We present important concepts and properties related to basis functions and illustrate several tools and techniques ecologists can use when modeling autocorrelation in ecological data.

Understanding rapid evolution in predator‐prey interactions using the theory of fast‐slow dynamical systems.

PubMed

Cortez, Michael H; Ellner, Stephen P

2010-11-01

The accumulation of evidence that ecologically important traits often evolve at the same time and rate as ecological dynamics (e.g., changes in species' abundances or spatial distributions) has outpaced theory describing the interplay between ecological and evolutionary processes with comparable timescales. The disparity between experiment and theory is partially due to the high dimensionality of models that include both evolutionary and ecological dynamics. Here we show how the theory of fast-slow dynamical systems can be used to reduce model dimension, and we use that body of theory to study a general predator-prey system exhibiting fast evolution in either the predator or the prey. Our approach yields graphical methods with predictive power about when new and unique dynamics (e.g., completely out-of-phase oscillations and cryptic dynamics) can arise in ecological systems exhibiting fast evolution. In addition, we derive analytical expressions for determining when such behavior arises and how evolution affects qualitative properties of the ecological dynamics. Finally, while the theory requires a separation of timescales between the ecological and evolutionary processes, our approach yields insight into systems where the rates of those processes are comparable and thus is a step toward creating a general ecoevolutionary theory.

Annual Research Review: What is resilience within the social ecology of human development?

PubMed

Ungar, Michael; Ghazinour, Mehdi; Richter, Jörg

2013-04-01

  The development of Bronfenbrenner's bio-social-ecological systems model of human development parallels advances made to the theory of resilience that progressively moved from a more individual (micro) focus on traits to a multisystemic understanding of person-environment reciprocal processes.   This review uses Bronfenbrenner's model and Ungar's social-ecological interpretation of four decades of research on resilience to discuss the results of a purposeful selection of studies of resilience that have been done in different contexts and cultures.   An ecological model of resilience can, and indeed has been shown to help researchers of resilience to conceptualize the child's social and physical ecologies, from caregivers to neighbourhoods, that account for both proximal and distal factors that predict successful development under adversity. Three principles emerged from this review that inform a bio-social-ecological interpretation of resilience: equifinality (there are many proximal processes that can lead to many different, but equally viable, expressions of human development associated with well-being); differential impact (the nature of the risks children face, their perceptions of the resources available to mitigate those risks and the quality of the resources that are accessible make proximal processes more or less influential to children's development); and contextual and cultural moderation (different contexts and cultures provide access to different processes associated with resilience as it is defined locally).   As this review shows, using this multisystemic social-ecological theory of resilience can inform a deeper understanding of the processes that contribute to positive development under stress. It can also offer practitioners and policy makers a broader perspective on principles for the design and implementation of effective interventions. © 2012 The Authors. Journal of Child Psychology and Psychiatry © 2012 Association for Child and Adolescent Mental Health.

Using ecological production functions to link ecological ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Ecological production functions (EPFs) link ecosystems, stressors, and management actions to ecosystem services (ES) production. Although EPFs are acknowledged as being essential to improve environmental management, their use in ecological risk assessment has received relatively little attention. Ecological production functions may be defined as usable expressions (i.e., models) of the processes by which ecosystems produce ES, often including external influences on those processes. We identify key attributes of EPFs and discuss both actual and idealized examples of their use to inform decision making. Whenever possible, EPFs should estimate final, rather than intermediate, ES. Although various types of EPFs have been developed, we suggest that EPFs are more useful for decision making if they quantify ES outcomes, respond to ecosystem condition, respond to stressor levels or management scenarios, reflect ecological complexity, rely on data with broad coverage, have performed well previously, are practical to use, and are open and transparent. In an example using pesticides, we illustrate how EPFs with these attributes could enable the inclusion of ES in ecological risk assessment. The biggest challenges to ES inclusion are limited data sets that are easily adapted for use in modeling EPFs and generally poor understanding of linkages among ecological components and the processes that ultimately deliver the ES. We conclude by advocating for the incorporation into E

NexGen PVAs: Incorporating Eco-Evolutionary Processes into Population Viability Models

EPA Science Inventory

We examine how the integration of evolutionary and ecological processes in population dynamics – an emerging framework in ecology – could be incorporated into population viability analysis (PVA). Driven by parallel, complementary advances in population genomics and computational ...

Making ecological models adequate

USGS Publications Warehouse

Getz, Wayne M.; Marshall, Charles R.; Carlson, Colin J.; Giuggioli, Luca; Ryan, Sadie J.; Romañach, Stephanie; Boettiger, Carl; Chamberlain, Samuel D.; Larsen, Laurel; D'Odorico, Paolo; O'Sullivan, David

2018-01-01

Critical evaluation of the adequacy of ecological models is urgently needed to enhance their utility in developing theory and enabling environmental managers and policymakers to make informed decisions. Poorly supported management can have detrimental, costly or irreversible impacts on the environment and society. Here, we examine common issues in ecological modelling and suggest criteria for improving modelling frameworks. An appropriate level of process description is crucial to constructing the best possible model, given the available data and understanding of ecological structures. Model details unsupported by data typically lead to over parameterisation and poor model performance. Conversely, a lack of mechanistic details may limit a model's ability to predict ecological systems’ responses to management. Ecological studies that employ models should follow a set of model adequacy assessment protocols that include: asking a series of critical questions regarding state and control variable selection, the determinacy of data, and the sensitivity and validity of analyses. We also need to improve model elaboration, refinement and coarse graining procedures to better understand the relevancy and adequacy of our models and the role they play in advancing theory, improving hind and forecasting, and enabling problem solving and management.

[Process of land use transition and its impact on regional ecological quality in the Middle Reaches of Heihe River, China].

PubMed

Wang, Fu Hong; Zhao, Rui Feng; Zhang, Li Hua; Li, Hong Wei

2017-12-01

Land use transition is one of the main drivers of regional ecosystem change in arid area, which directly affects human well-being. Based on the satellite images of 1987, 2001 and 2016, the change detection assessment model and ecological response model were used to analyze the process of land use transition and response of ecological quality during 1987-2016 in the ecologically fragile middle reaches of the Heihe River. The results showed that the land use change was significant during 1987-2016 and the total change increased significantly, as well as the continuous increase of the cultivated land and construction land. There was a strong tendency of transform from grassland to cultivated land, while the tendency of transforming unused land to other land classes was not strong under a random process of gain or loss. During 1987-2016, the ecological quality of the study area displayed a decreasing trend as a whole and the ecological land decreased by 2.8%. The land use transition with the greatest impact on the ecological environment degradation was the transition of the grassland to the cultivated land and unused land. Therefore, in order to promote the sustainable use of regional land resources and to improve the regional ecological quality, it is necessary to allocate the proportion of production land and ecological land according to the regional water resources.

Characterizing land use change in multidisciplinary landscape-level analyses.

Treesearch

Jeffrey D. Kline

2003-01-01

Economists increasingly face opportunities to collaborate with ecologists on landscape-level analyses of socioeconomic and ecological processes. This often calls for developing empirical models to project land use change as input into ecological models. Providing ecologists with the land use information they desire can present many challenges regarding data, modeling,...

Estimating species - area relationships by modeling abundance and frequency subject to incomplete sampling.

PubMed

Yamaura, Yuichi; Connor, Edward F; Royle, J Andrew; Itoh, Katsuo; Sato, Kiyoshi; Taki, Hisatomo; Mishima, Yoshio

2016-07-01

Models and data used to describe species-area relationships confound sampling with ecological process as they fail to acknowledge that estimates of species richness arise due to sampling. This compromises our ability to make ecological inferences from and about species-area relationships. We develop and illustrate hierarchical community models of abundance and frequency to estimate species richness. The models we propose separate sampling from ecological processes by explicitly accounting for the fact that sampled patches are seldom completely covered by sampling plots and that individuals present in the sampling plots are imperfectly detected. We propose a multispecies abundance model in which community assembly is treated as the summation of an ensemble of species-level Poisson processes and estimate patch-level species richness as a derived parameter. We use sampling process models appropriate for specific survey methods. We propose a multispecies frequency model that treats the number of plots in which a species occurs as a binomial process. We illustrate these models using data collected in surveys of early-successional bird species and plants in young forest plantation patches. Results indicate that only mature forest plant species deviated from the constant density hypothesis, but the null model suggested that the deviations were too small to alter the form of species-area relationships. Nevertheless, results from simulations clearly show that the aggregate pattern of individual species density-area relationships and occurrence probability-area relationships can alter the form of species-area relationships. The plant community model estimated that only half of the species present in the regional species pool were encountered during the survey. The modeling framework we propose explicitly accounts for sampling processes so that ecological processes can be examined free of sampling artefacts. Our modeling approach is extensible and could be applied to a variety of study designs and allows the inclusion of additional environmental covariates.

Estimating species – area relationships by modeling abundance and frequency subject to incomplete sampling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Yamaura, Yuichi; Connor, Edward F.; Royle, Andy; Itoh, Katsuo; Sato, Kiyoshi; Taki, Hisatomo; Mishima, Yoshio

2016-01-01

Models and data used to describe species–area relationships confound sampling with ecological process as they fail to acknowledge that estimates of species richness arise due to sampling. This compromises our ability to make ecological inferences from and about species–area relationships. We develop and illustrate hierarchical community models of abundance and frequency to estimate species richness. The models we propose separate sampling from ecological processes by explicitly accounting for the fact that sampled patches are seldom completely covered by sampling plots and that individuals present in the sampling plots are imperfectly detected. We propose a multispecies abundance model in which community assembly is treated as the summation of an ensemble of species-level Poisson processes and estimate patch-level species richness as a derived parameter. We use sampling process models appropriate for specific survey methods. We propose a multispecies frequency model that treats the number of plots in which a species occurs as a binomial process. We illustrate these models using data collected in surveys of early-successional bird species and plants in young forest plantation patches. Results indicate that only mature forest plant species deviated from the constant density hypothesis, but the null model suggested that the deviations were too small to alter the form of species–area relationships. Nevertheless, results from simulations clearly show that the aggregate pattern of individual species density–area relationships and occurrence probability–area relationships can alter the form of species–area relationships. The plant community model estimated that only half of the species present in the regional species pool were encountered during the survey. The modeling framework we propose explicitly accounts for sampling processes so that ecological processes can be examined free of sampling artefacts. Our modeling approach is extensible and could be applied to a variety of study designs and allows the inclusion of additional environmental covariates.

Analytically tractable model for community ecology with many species

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dickens, Benjamin; Fisher, Charles K.; Mehta, Pankaj

2016-08-01

A fundamental problem in community ecology is understanding how ecological processes such as selection, drift, and immigration give rise to observed patterns in species composition and diversity. Here, we analyze a recently introduced, analytically tractable, presence-absence (PA) model for community assembly, and we use it to ask how ecological traits such as the strength of competition, the amount of diversity, and demographic and environmental stochasticity affect species composition in a community. In the PA model, species are treated as stochastic binary variables that can either be present or absent in a community: species can immigrate into the community from a regional species pool and can go extinct due to competition and stochasticity. Building upon previous work, we show that, despite its simplicity, the PA model reproduces the qualitative features of more complicated models of community assembly. In agreement with recent studies of large, competitive Lotka-Volterra systems, the PA model exhibits distinct ecological behaviors organized around a special ("critical") point corresponding to Hubbell's neutral theory of biodiversity. These results suggest that the concepts of ecological "phases" and phase diagrams can provide a powerful framework for thinking about community ecology, and that the PA model captures the essential ecological dynamics of community assembly.

[Calculation model of urban water resources ecological footprint and its application: a case study in Shenyang City of Northeast China].

PubMed

Wang, Jian; Zhang, Chao-Xing; Yu, Ying-Tan; Li, Fa-Yun; Ma, Fang

2012-08-01

Water resources ecological footprint can directly reflect the pressure of human social and economic activities to water resources, and provide important reference for the rational utilization of water resources. Based on the existing ecological footprint models and giving full consideration of the water resources need of urban ecological system, this paper established a new calculation model of urban water resources ecological footprint, including domestic water account, process water account, public service water account, and ecological water requirement account. According to the actual situation of Shenyang City, the key parameters of the model were determined, and the water resources ecological footprint and ecological carrying capacity of the City were calculated and analyzed. From 2000 to 2009, the water resources ecological footprint per capita of the City presented an overall decreasing trend, but still had an annual ecological deficit. As compared to that in 2000, the water resources ecological footprint per capita was decreased to 0.31 hm2 in 2005, increased slightly in 2006 and 2007, and remained stable in 2008 and 2009, which suggested that the sustainable utilization of water resources in Shenyang City had definite improvement, but was still in an unsustainable development situation.

Land Ecological Security Evaluation of Underground Iron Mine Based on PSR Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xiao, Xiao; Chen, Yong; Ruan, Jinghua; Hong, Qiang; Gan, Yong

2018-01-01

Iron ore mine provides an important strategic resource to the national economy while it also causes many serious ecological problems to the environment. The study summed up the characteristics of ecological environment problems of underground iron mine. Considering the mining process of underground iron mine, we analysis connections between mining production, resource, environment and economical background. The paper proposed a land ecological security evaluation system and method of underground iron mine based on Pressure-State-Response model. Our application in Chengchao iron mine proves its efficiency and promising guide on land ecological security evaluation.

Disentangling mechanisms that mediate the balance between stochastic and deterministic processes in microbial succession.

PubMed

Dini-Andreote, Francisco; Stegen, James C; van Elsas, Jan Dirk; Salles, Joana Falcão

2015-03-17

Ecological succession and the balance between stochastic and deterministic processes are two major themes within microbial ecology, but these conceptual domains have mostly developed independent of each other. Here we provide a framework that integrates shifts in community assembly processes with microbial primary succession to better understand mechanisms governing the stochastic/deterministic balance. Synthesizing previous work, we devised a conceptual model that links ecosystem development to alternative hypotheses related to shifts in ecological assembly processes. Conceptual model hypotheses were tested by coupling spatiotemporal data on soil bacterial communities with environmental conditions in a salt marsh chronosequence spanning 105 years of succession. Analyses within successional stages showed community composition to be initially governed by stochasticity, but as succession proceeded, there was a progressive increase in deterministic selection correlated with increasing sodium concentration. Analyses of community turnover among successional stages--which provide a larger spatiotemporal scale relative to within stage analyses--revealed that changes in the concentration of soil organic matter were the main predictor of the type and relative influence of determinism. Taken together, these results suggest scale-dependency in the mechanisms underlying selection. To better understand mechanisms governing these patterns, we developed an ecological simulation model that revealed how changes in selective environments cause shifts in the stochastic/deterministic balance. Finally, we propose an extended--and experimentally testable--conceptual model integrating ecological assembly processes with primary and secondary succession. This framework provides a priori hypotheses for future experiments, thereby facilitating a systematic approach to understand assembly and succession in microbial communities across ecosystems.

Disentangling mechanisms that mediate the balance between stochastic and deterministic processes in microbial succession

PubMed Central

Dini-Andreote, Francisco; Stegen, James C.; van Elsas, Jan Dirk; Salles, Joana Falcão

2015-01-01

Ecological succession and the balance between stochastic and deterministic processes are two major themes within microbial ecology, but these conceptual domains have mostly developed independent of each other. Here we provide a framework that integrates shifts in community assembly processes with microbial primary succession to better understand mechanisms governing the stochastic/deterministic balance. Synthesizing previous work, we devised a conceptual model that links ecosystem development to alternative hypotheses related to shifts in ecological assembly processes. Conceptual model hypotheses were tested by coupling spatiotemporal data on soil bacterial communities with environmental conditions in a salt marsh chronosequence spanning 105 years of succession. Analyses within successional stages showed community composition to be initially governed by stochasticity, but as succession proceeded, there was a progressive increase in deterministic selection correlated with increasing sodium concentration. Analyses of community turnover among successional stages—which provide a larger spatiotemporal scale relative to within stage analyses—revealed that changes in the concentration of soil organic matter were the main predictor of the type and relative influence of determinism. Taken together, these results suggest scale-dependency in the mechanisms underlying selection. To better understand mechanisms governing these patterns, we developed an ecological simulation model that revealed how changes in selective environments cause shifts in the stochastic/deterministic balance. Finally, we propose an extended—and experimentally testable—conceptual model integrating ecological assembly processes with primary and secondary succession. This framework provides a priori hypotheses for future experiments, thereby facilitating a systematic approach to understand assembly and succession in microbial communities across ecosystems. PMID:25733885

Modeling gypsy moth seasonality

Treesearch

J. A. Logan; D. R. Gray

1991-01-01

Maintaining an appropriate seasonality is perhaps the most basic ecological requisite for insects living in temperate environments. The basic ecological importance of seasonality is enough to justify expending considerable effort to accurately model the processes involved. For insects of significant economic consequence, seasonality assumes additional importance...

Composition and analysis of a model waste for a CELSS (Controlled Ecological Life Support System)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wydeven, T. J.

1983-01-01

A model waste based on a modest vegetarian diet is given, including composition and elemental analysis. Its use is recommended for evaluation of candidate waste treatment processes for a Controlled Ecological Life Support System (CELSS).

An Investigation of the Effectiveness of Computer Simulation Programs as Tutorial Tools for Teaching Population Ecology at University.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Korfiatis, K.; Papatheodorou, E.; Paraskevopoulous, S.; Stamou, G. P.

1999-01-01

Describes a study of the effectiveness of computer-simulation programs in enhancing biology students' familiarity with ecological modeling and concepts. Finds that computer simulations improved student comprehension of ecological processes expressed in mathematical form, but did not allow a full understanding of ecological concepts. Contains 28…

Predictive ecology: systems approaches

PubMed Central

Evans, Matthew R.; Norris, Ken J.; Benton, Tim G.

2012-01-01

The world is experiencing significant, largely anthropogenically induced, environmental change. This will impact on the biological world and we need to be able to forecast its effects. In order to produce such forecasts, ecology needs to become more predictive—to develop the ability to understand how ecological systems will behave in future, changed, conditions. Further development of process-based models is required to allow such predictions to be made. Critical to the development of such models will be achieving a balance between the brute-force approach that naively attempts to include everything, and over simplification that throws out important heterogeneities at various levels. Central to this will be the recognition that individuals are the elementary particles of all ecological systems. As such it will be necessary to understand the effect of evolution on ecological systems, particularly when exposed to environmental change. However, insights from evolutionary biology will help the development of models even when data may be sparse. Process-based models are more common, and are used for forecasting, in other disciplines, e.g. climatology and molecular systems biology. Tools and techniques developed in these endeavours can be appropriated into ecological modelling, but it will also be necessary to develop the science of ecoinformatics along with approaches specific to ecological problems. The impetus for this effort should come from the demand coming from society to understand the effects of environmental change on the world and what might be performed to mitigate or adapt to them. PMID:22144379

Dynamical nexus of water supply, hydropower and environment based on the modeling of multiple socio-natural processes: from socio-hydrological perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, D.; Wei, X.; Li, H. Y.; Lin, M.; Tian, F.; Huang, Q.

2017-12-01

In the socio-hydrological system, the ecological functions and environmental services, which are chosen to maintain, are determined by the preference of the society, which is making the trade-off among the values of riparian vegetation, fish, river landscape, water supply, hydropower, navigation and so on. As the society develops, the preference of the value will change and the ecological functions and environmental services which are chosen to maintain will change. The aim of the study is to focus on revealing the feedback relationship of water supply, hydropower and environment and the dynamical feedback mechanism at macro-scale, and to establish socio-hydrological evolution model of the watershed based on the modeling of multiple socio-natural processes. The study will aim at the Han River in China, analyze the impact of the water supply and hydropower on the ecology, hydrology and other environment elements, and study the effect on the water supply and hydropower to ensure the ecological and environmental water of the different level. Water supply and ecology are usually competitive. In some reservoirs, hydropower and ecology are synergic relationship while they are competitive in some reservoirs. The study will analyze the multiple mechanisms to implement the dynamical feedbacks of environment to hydropower, set up the quantitative relationship description of the feedback mechanisms, recognize the dominant processes in the feedback relationships of hydropower and environment and then analyze the positive and negative feedbacks in the feedback networks. The socio-hydrological evolution model at the watershed scale will be built and applied to simulate the long-term evolution processes of the watershed of the current situation. Dynamical nexus of water supply, hydropower and environment will be investigated.

A Bosque Riparian Community Index Model for the Middle Rio Grande, Albuquerque, New Mexico: Model Documentation

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-09-01

ecological processes involve the invasion of non-native (exotic) species (USEPA 1999). Through direct biotic interactions (predation and competition) and...indirect interactions ( ecological engineering and habitat modification), invasive species can disrupt the natural population dynamics of native...species (USEPA 1999). Invasives can include noxious plants (i.e., plants that are listed by a state because of their unfavorable economic or ecological

An empirical model of the Baltic Sea reveals the importance of social dynamics for ecological regime shifts.

PubMed

Lade, Steven J; Niiranen, Susa; Hentati-Sundberg, Jonas; Blenckner, Thorsten; Boonstra, Wiebren J; Orach, Kirill; Quaas, Martin F; Österblom, Henrik; Schlüter, Maja

2015-09-01

Regime shifts triggered by human activities and environmental changes have led to significant ecological and socioeconomic consequences in marine and terrestrial ecosystems worldwide. Ecological processes and feedbacks associated with regime shifts have received considerable attention, but human individual and collective behavior is rarely treated as an integrated component of such shifts. Here, we used generalized modeling to develop a coupled social-ecological model that integrated rich social and ecological data to investigate the role of social dynamics in the 1980s Baltic Sea cod boom and collapse. We showed that psychological, economic, and regulatory aspects of fisher decision making, in addition to ecological interactions, contributed both to the temporary persistence of the cod boom and to its subsequent collapse. These features of the social-ecological system also would have limited the effectiveness of stronger fishery regulations. Our results provide quantitative, empirical evidence that incorporating social dynamics into models of natural resources is critical for understanding how resources can be managed sustainably. We also show that generalized modeling, which is well-suited to collaborative model development and does not require detailed specification of causal relationships between system variables, can help tackle the complexities involved in creating and analyzing social-ecological models.

An empirical model of the Baltic Sea reveals the importance of social dynamics for ecological regime shifts

PubMed Central

Lade, Steven J.; Niiranen, Susa; Hentati-Sundberg, Jonas; Blenckner, Thorsten; Boonstra, Wiebren J.; Orach, Kirill; Quaas, Martin F.; Österblom, Henrik; Schlüter, Maja

2015-01-01

Regime shifts triggered by human activities and environmental changes have led to significant ecological and socioeconomic consequences in marine and terrestrial ecosystems worldwide. Ecological processes and feedbacks associated with regime shifts have received considerable attention, but human individual and collective behavior is rarely treated as an integrated component of such shifts. Here, we used generalized modeling to develop a coupled social–ecological model that integrated rich social and ecological data to investigate the role of social dynamics in the 1980s Baltic Sea cod boom and collapse. We showed that psychological, economic, and regulatory aspects of fisher decision making, in addition to ecological interactions, contributed both to the temporary persistence of the cod boom and to its subsequent collapse. These features of the social–ecological system also would have limited the effectiveness of stronger fishery regulations. Our results provide quantitative, empirical evidence that incorporating social dynamics into models of natural resources is critical for understanding how resources can be managed sustainably. We also show that generalized modeling, which is well-suited to collaborative model development and does not require detailed specification of causal relationships between system variables, can help tackle the complexities involved in creating and analyzing social–ecological models. PMID:26283344

Natural disturbance and stand development principles for ecological forestry

Treesearch

Jerry F. Franklin; Robert J. Mitchell; Brian J. Palik

2007-01-01

Foresters use natural disturbances and stand development processes as models for silvicultural practices in broad conceptual ways. Incorporating an understanding of natural disturbance and stand development processes more fully into silvicultural practice is the basis for an ecological forestry approach. Such an approach must include 1) understanding the importance of...

Local dispersal promotes biodiversity in a real-life game of rock-paper-scissors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kerr, Benjamin; Riley, Margaret A.; Feldman, Marcus W.; Bohannan, Brendan J. M.

2002-07-01

One of the central aims of ecology is to identify mechanisms that maintain biodiversity. Numerous theoretical models have shown that competing species can coexist if ecological processes such as dispersal, movement, and interaction occur over small spatial scales. In particular, this may be the case for non-transitive communities, that is, those without strict competitive hierarchies. The classic non-transitive system involves a community of three competing species satisfying a relationship similar to the children's game rock-paper-scissors, where rock crushes scissors, scissors cuts paper, and paper covers rock. Such relationships have been demonstrated in several natural systems. Some models predict that local interaction and dispersal are sufficient to ensure coexistence of all three species in such a community, whereas diversity is lost when ecological processes occur over larger scales. Here, we test these predictions empirically using a non-transitive model community containing three populations of Escherichia coli. We find that diversity is rapidly lost in our experimental community when dispersal and interaction occur over relatively large spatial scales, whereas all populations coexist when ecological processes are localized.

Development of a zoning-based environmental-ecological-coupled model for lakes to assess lake restoration effect

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Mengjia; Zou, Changxin; Zhao, Yanwei

2017-04-01

Environmental/ecological models are widely used for lake management as they provide a means to understand physical, chemical and biological processes in highly complex ecosystems. Most research focused on the development of environmental (water quality) and ecological models, separately. Limited studies were developed to couple the two models, and in these limited coupled models, a lake was regarded as a whole for analysis (i.e., considering the lake to be one well-mixed box), which was appropriate for small-scale lakes and was not sufficient to capture spatial variations within middle-scale or large-scale lakes. This paper seeks to establish a zoning-based environmental-ecological-coupled model for a lake. The Baiyangdian Lake, the largest freshwater lake in Northern China, was adopted as the study case. The coupled lake models including a hydrodynamics and water quality model established by MIKE21 and a compartmental ecological model used STELLA software have been established for middle-sized Baiyangdian Lake to realize the simulation of spatial variations of ecological conditions. On the basis of the flow field distribution results generated by MIKE21 hydrodynamics model, four water area zones were used as an example for compartmental ecological model calibration and validation. The results revealed that the developed coupled lake models can reasonably reflected the changes of the key state variables although there remain some state variables that are not well represented by the model due to the low quality of field monitoring data. Monitoring sites in a compartment may not be representative of the water quality and ecological conditions in the entire compartment even though that is the intention of compartment-based model design. There was only one ecological observation from a single monitoring site for some periods. This single-measurement issue may cause large discrepancies particularly when sampled site is not representative of the whole compartment. The coupled models have been applied to simulate the spatial variation trends of ecological condition under ecological water supplement as an example to reflect the application effect in lake restoration and management. The simulation results indicate that the models can provide a useful tool for lake restoration and management. The simulated spatial variation trends can provide a foundation for establishing permissible ranges for a selected set of water quality indices for a series of management measures such as watershed pollution load control and ecological water transfer. Meanwhile, the coupled models can help us to understand processes taking place and the relations of interaction between components in the lake ecosystem and external conditions. Taken together, the proposed models we established show some promising applications as middle-scale or large-scale lake management tools for pollution load control and ecological water transfer. These tools quantify the implications of proposed future water management decisions.

An improved neutral landscape model for recreating real landscapes and generating landscape series for spatial ecological simulations.

PubMed

van Strien, Maarten J; Slager, Cornelis T J; de Vries, Bauke; Grêt-Regamey, Adrienne

2016-06-01

Many studies have assessed the effect of landscape patterns on spatial ecological processes by simulating these processes in computer-generated landscapes with varying composition and configuration. To generate such landscapes, various neutral landscape models have been developed. However, the limited set of landscape-level pattern variables included in these models is often inadequate to generate landscapes that reflect real landscapes. In order to achieve more flexibility and variability in the generated landscapes patterns, a more complete set of class- and patch-level pattern variables should be implemented in these models. These enhancements have been implemented in Landscape Generator (LG), which is a software that uses optimization algorithms to generate landscapes that match user-defined target values. Developed for participatory spatial planning at small scale, we enhanced the usability of LG and demonstrated how it can be used for larger scale ecological studies. First, we used LG to recreate landscape patterns from a real landscape (i.e., a mountainous region in Switzerland). Second, we generated landscape series with incrementally changing pattern variables, which could be used in ecological simulation studies. We found that LG was able to recreate landscape patterns that approximate those of real landscapes. Furthermore, we successfully generated landscape series that would not have been possible with traditional neutral landscape models. LG is a promising novel approach for generating neutral landscapes and enables testing of new hypotheses regarding the influence of landscape patterns on ecological processes. LG is freely available online.

Guidelines for developing and updating Bayesian belief networks applied to ecological modeling and conservation.

Treesearch

B.G. Marcot; J.D. Steventon; G.D. Sutherland; R.K. McCann

2006-01-01

We provide practical guidelines for developing, testing, and revising Bayesian belief networks (BBNs). Primary steps in this process include creating influence diagrams of the hypothesized "causal web" of key factors affecting a species or ecological outcome of interest; developing a first, alpha-level BBN model from the influence diagram; revising the model...

Use and misuse of landscape indices

Treesearch

Harbin Li; Jianguo Wu

2004-01-01

Landscape ecology has generated much excitement in the past two decades. One reason was that it brought spatial analysis and modeling to the forefront of ecological research. However, high expectations for landscape analysis to improve our understanding and prediction of ecological processes have largely been unfulfilled. We identified three kinds of critical issues:...

U.S. Geological Survey Program on the South Florida Ecosystem - Proceedings of South Florida Restoration Science Forum, May 17-19, 1999, Boca Raton, Florida

DTIC Science & Technology

1999-01-01

Study (the Restudy), assessing the hydrologic and ecological results of the Restudy modifications through pre- and postmodification monitoring and...of the south Florida ecosystem and its response to restoration activities. • Model Development—Robust models of ecological processes and the... ecological interactions are all underway. • Data Synthesis and Information Dissemination—Topical syntheses will analyze, summarize, and integrate

Ecological hierarchies and self-organisation - Pattern analysis, modelling and process integration across scales

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reuter, H.; Jopp, F.; Blanco-Moreno, J. M.; Damgaard, C.; Matsinos, Y.; DeAngelis, D.L.

2010-01-01

A continuing discussion in applied and theoretical ecology focuses on the relationship of different organisational levels and on how ecological systems interact across scales. We address principal approaches to cope with complex across-level issues in ecology by applying elements of hierarchy theory and the theory of complex adaptive systems. A top-down approach, often characterised by the use of statistical techniques, can be applied to analyse large-scale dynamics and identify constraints exerted on lower levels. Current developments are illustrated with examples from the analysis of within-community spatial patterns and large-scale vegetation patterns. A bottom-up approach allows one to elucidate how interactions of individuals shape dynamics at higher levels in a self-organisation process; e.g., population development and community composition. This may be facilitated by various modelling tools, which provide the distinction between focal levels and resulting properties. For instance, resilience in grassland communities has been analysed with a cellular automaton approach, and the driving forces in rodent population oscillations have been identified with an agent-based model. Both modelling tools illustrate the principles of analysing higher level processes by representing the interactions of basic components.The focus of most ecological investigations on either top-down or bottom-up approaches may not be appropriate, if strong cross-scale relationships predominate. Here, we propose an 'across-scale-approach', closely interweaving the inherent potentials of both approaches. This combination of analytical and synthesising approaches will enable ecologists to establish a more coherent access to cross-level interactions in ecological systems. ?? 2010 Gesellschaft f??r ??kologie.

SPATIAL FOREST SOIL PROPERTIES FOR ECOLOGICAL MODELING IN THE WESTERN OREGON CASCADES

EPA Science Inventory

The ultimate objective of this work is to provide a spatially distributed database of soil properties to serve as inputs to model ecological processes in western forests at the landscape scale. The Central Western Oregon Cascades are rich in biodiversity and they are a fascinati...

DEVELOPMENT AND APPLICATION OF POPULATION MODELS TO SUPPORT EPA'S ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT PROCESSES FOR PESTICIDES

EPA Science Inventory

As part of a broader exploratory effort to develop ecological risk assessment approaches to estimate potential chemical effects on non-target populations, we describe an approach for developing simple population models to estimate the extent to which acute effects on individual...

Equivalence of MAXENT and Poisson point process models for species distribution modeling in ecology.

PubMed

Renner, Ian W; Warton, David I

2013-03-01

Modeling the spatial distribution of a species is a fundamental problem in ecology. A number of modeling methods have been developed, an extremely popular one being MAXENT, a maximum entropy modeling approach. In this article, we show that MAXENT is equivalent to a Poisson regression model and hence is related to a Poisson point process model, differing only in the intercept term, which is scale-dependent in MAXENT. We illustrate a number of improvements to MAXENT that follow from these relations. In particular, a point process model approach facilitates methods for choosing the appropriate spatial resolution, assessing model adequacy, and choosing the LASSO penalty parameter, all currently unavailable to MAXENT. The equivalence result represents a significant step in the unification of the species distribution modeling literature. Copyright © 2013, The International Biometric Society.

Process models as tools in forestry research and management

Treesearch

Kurt Johnsen; Lisa Samuelson; Robert Teskey; Steve McNulty; Tom Fox

2001-01-01

Forest process models are mathematical representations of biological systems that incorporate our understanding of physiological and ecological mechanisms into predictive algorithms. These models were originally designed and used for research purposes, but are being developed for use in practical forest management. Process models designed for research...

Increasing connectivity between metapopulation ecology and landscape ecology.

PubMed

Howell, Paige E; Muths, Erin; Hossack, Blake R; Sigafus, Brent H; Chandler, Richard B

2018-05-01

Metapopulation ecology and landscape ecology aim to understand how spatial structure influences ecological processes, yet these disciplines address the problem using fundamentally different modeling approaches. Metapopulation models describe how the spatial distribution of patches affects colonization and extinction, but often do not account for the heterogeneity in the landscape between patches. Models in landscape ecology use detailed descriptions of landscape structure, but often without considering colonization and extinction dynamics. We present a novel spatially explicit modeling framework for narrowing the divide between these disciplines to advance understanding of the effects of landscape structure on metapopulation dynamics. Unlike previous efforts, this framework allows for statistical inference on landscape resistance to colonization using empirical data. We demonstrate the approach using 11 yr of data on a threatened amphibian in a desert ecosystem. Occupancy data for Lithobates chiricahuensis (Chiricahua leopard frog) were collected on the Buenos Aires National Wildlife Refuge (BANWR), Arizona, USA from 2007 to 2017 following a reintroduction in 2003. Results indicated that colonization dynamics were influenced by both patch characteristics and landscape structure. Landscape resistance increased with increasing elevation and distance to the nearest streambed. Colonization rate was also influenced by patch quality, with semi-permanent and permanent ponds contributing substantially more to the colonization of neighboring ponds relative to intermittent ponds. Ponds that only hold water intermittently also had the highest extinction rate. Our modeling framework can be widely applied to understand metapopulation dynamics in complex landscapes, particularly in systems in which the environment between habitat patches influences the colonization process. © 2018 by the Ecological Society of America.

An analytically tractable model for community ecology with many species

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dickens, Benjamin; Fisher, Charles; Mehta, Pankaj; Pankaj Mehta Biophysics Theory Group Team

A fundamental problem in community ecology is to understand how ecological processes such as selection, drift, and immigration yield observed patterns in species composition and diversity. Here, we present an analytically tractable, presence-absence (PA) model for community assembly and use it to ask how ecological traits such as the strength of competition, diversity in competition, and stochasticity affect species composition in a community. In our PA model, we treat species as stochastic binary variables that can either be present or absent in a community: species can immigrate into the community from a regional species pool and can go extinct due to competition and stochasticity. Despite its simplicity, the PA model reproduces the qualitative features of more complicated models of community assembly. In agreement with recent work on large, competitive Lotka-Volterra systems, the PA model exhibits distinct ecological behaviors organized around a special (``critical'') point corresponding to Hubbell's neutral theory of biodiversity. Our results suggest that the concepts of ``phases'' and phase diagrams can provide a powerful framework for thinking about community ecology and that the PA model captures the essential ecological dynamics of community assembly. Pm was supported by a Simons Investigator in the Mathematical Modeling of Living Systems and a Sloan Research Fellowship.

Evaluation of DGVMs in tropical areas: linking patterns of vegetation cover, climate and fire to ecological processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

D'Onofrio, Donatella; von Hardenberg, Jost; Baudena, Mara

2017-04-01

Many current Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs), including those incorporated into Earth System Models (ESMs), are able to realistically reproduce the distribution of the most worldwide biomes. However, they display high uncertainty in predicting the forest, savanna and grassland distributions and the transitions between them in tropical areas. These biomes are the most productive terrestrial ecosystems, and owing to their different biogeophysical and biogeochemical characteristics, future changes in their distributions could have also impacts on climate states. In particular, expected increasing temperature and CO2, modified precipitation regimes, as well as increasing land-use intensity could have large impacts on global biogeochemical cycles and precipitation, affecting the land-climate interactions. The difficulty of the DGVMs in simulating tropical vegetation, especially savanna structure and occurrence, has been associated with the way they represent the ecological processes and feedbacks between biotic and abiotic conditions. The inclusion of appropriate ecological mechanisms under present climatic conditions is essential for obtaining reliable future projections of vegetation and climate states. In this work we analyse observed relationships of tree and grass cover with climate and fire, and the current ecological understanding of the mechanisms driving the forest-savanna-grassland transition in Africa to evaluate the outcomes of a current state-of-the-art DGVM and to assess which ecological processes need to be included or improved within the model. Specifically, we analyse patterns of woody and herbaceous cover and fire return times from MODIS satellite observations, rainfall annual average and seasonality from TRMM satellite measurements and tree phenology information from the ESA global land cover map, comparing them with the outcomes of the LPJ-GUESS DGVM, also used by the EC-Earth global climate model. The comparison analysis with the LPJ-GUESS simulations suggests possible improvements in the model representations of tree-grass competition for water and in the vegetation-fire interaction. The proposed method could be useful for evaluating DGVMs in tropical areas, especially in the phase of model setting-up, before the coupling with Earth System Models. This could help in improving the simulations of ecological processes and consequently of land-climate interactions.

Machine Learning Biogeographic Processes from Biotic Patterns: A New Trait-Dependent Dispersal and Diversification Model with Model Choice By Simulation-Trained Discriminant Analysis.

PubMed

Sukumaran, Jeet; Economo, Evan P; Lacey Knowles, L

2016-05-01

Current statistical biogeographical analysis methods are limited in the ways ecology can be related to the processes of diversification and geographical range evolution, requiring conflation of geography and ecology, and/or assuming ecologies that are uniform across all lineages and invariant in time. This precludes the possibility of studying a broad class of macroevolutionary biogeographical theories that relate geographical and species histories through lineage-specific ecological and evolutionary dynamics, such as taxon cycle theory. Here we present a new model that generates phylogenies under a complex of superpositioned geographical range evolution, trait evolution, and diversification processes that can communicate with each other. We present a likelihood-free method of inference under our model using discriminant analysis of principal components of summary statistics calculated on phylogenies, with the discriminant functions trained on data generated by simulations under our model. This approach of model selection by classification of empirical data with respect to data generated under training models is shown to be efficient, robust, and performs well over a broad range of parameter space defined by the relative rates of dispersal, trait evolution, and diversification processes. We apply our method to a case study of the taxon cycle, that is testing for habitat and trophic level constraints in the dispersal regimes of the Wallacean avifaunal radiation. ©The Author(s) 2015. Published by Oxford University Press, on behalf of the Society of Systematic Biologists. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Effective discharge analysis of ecological processes in streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Doyle, Martin W.; Stanley, Emily H.; Strayer, David L.; Jacobson, Robert B.; Schmidt, John C.

2005-01-01

Discharge is a master variable that controls many processes in stream ecosystems. However, there is uncertainty of which discharges are most important for driving particular ecological processes and thus how flow regime may influence entire stream ecosystems. Here the analytical method of effective discharge from fluvial geomorphology is used to analyze the interaction between frequency and magnitude of discharge events that drive organic matter transport, algal growth, nutrient retention, macroinvertebrate disturbance, and habitat availability. We quantify the ecological effective discharge using a synthesis of previously published studies and modeling from a range of study sites. An analytical expression is then developed for a particular case of ecological effective discharge and is used to explore how effective discharge varies within variable hydrologic regimes. Our results suggest that a range of discharges is important for different ecological processes in an individual stream. Discharges are not equally important; instead, effective discharge values exist that correspond to near modal flows and moderate floods for the variable sets examined. We suggest four types of ecological response to discharge variability: discharge as a transport mechanism, regulator of habitat, process modulator, and disturbance. Effective discharge analysis will perform well when there is a unique, essentially instantaneous relationship between discharge and an ecological process and poorly when effects of discharge are delayed or confounded by legacy effects. Despite some limitations the conceptual and analytical utility of the effective discharge analysis allows exploring general questions about how hydrologic variability influences various ecological processes in streams.

Towards a catchment-scale macro-ecological model to support integrated catchment management in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lerner, R. N.; Lerner, D. N.; Surridge, B.; Paetzold, A.; Harris, B.; Anderson, C. W.

2005-12-01

In Europe, the Water Framework Directive (WFD) is providing a powerful regulatory driver to adopt integrated catchment management, and so pressurizing researchers to build suitable supporting tools. The WFD requires agencies to drive towards `good ecological quality' by 2015. After the initial step of characterising water bodies and the pressures on them, the next substantive step is the preparation of river basin management plans and proposed programmes of measures by 2009. Ecological quality is a complex concept and poorly defined, unless it is taken as a simple measure such as the abundance of a particular species of organism. There is clearly substantial work to do to build a practical but sound definition of ecological quality; practical in the sense of being easy to measure and explain to stakeholders, and sound in the sense that it reflects ecological complexity within catchments, the variability between catchments, and the conflicts demands for goods and services that human society places upon the ecological system. However ecological quality is defined, it will be driven by four interacting groups of factors. These represent the physical, chemical, ecological and socio-economic environments within and encompassing the catchment. Some of these groupings are better understood than others, for example hydrological processes and the transport of solutes are reasonably understood, even though they remain research areas in their own right. There are much larger gaps in our understanding at the interfaces, i.e. predicting how, for example, hydrological processes such as flow and river morphology influence ecological quality. Overall, it is clear we are not yet in a position to build deterministic models of the overall ecological behaviour of catchment. But we need predictive tools to support catchment management agencies in preparing robust plans. This poster describes our current exploration of soft modelling options to build a comprehensive macro-ecological model of UK catchments. This is taking place within the Catchment Science Centre, a joint venture between the University of Sheffield and the Environment Agency.

Vegetation Demographics in Earth System Models: a review of progress and priorities

DOE PAGES

Fisher, Rosie A.; Koven, Charles D.; Anderegg, William R. L.; ...

2017-09-18

Numerous current efforts seek to improve the representation of ecosystem ecology and vegetation demographic processes within Earth System Models (ESMs). Furthermore, these developments are widely viewed as an important step in developing greater realism in predictions of future ecosystem states and fluxes. Increased realism, however, leads to increased model complexity, with new features raising a suite of ecological questions that require empirical constraints. We review the developments that permit the representation of plant demographics in ESMs, and identify issues raised by these developments that highlight important gaps in ecological understanding. These issues inevitably translate into uncertainty in model projections butmore » also allow models to be applied to new processes and questions concerning the dynamics of real-world ecosystems. We also argue that stronger and more innovative connections to data, across the range of scales considered, are required to address these gaps in understanding. The development of first-generation land surface models as a unifying framework for ecophysiological understanding stimulated much research into plant physiological traits and gas exchange. Constraining predictions at ecologically relevant spatial and temporal scales will require a similar investment of effort and intensified inter-disciplinary communication.« less

Vegetation Demographics in Earth System Models: a review of progress and priorities

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fisher, Rosie A.; Koven, Charles D.; Anderegg, William R. L.

Numerous current efforts seek to improve the representation of ecosystem ecology and vegetation demographic processes within Earth System Models (ESMs). Furthermore, these developments are widely viewed as an important step in developing greater realism in predictions of future ecosystem states and fluxes. Increased realism, however, leads to increased model complexity, with new features raising a suite of ecological questions that require empirical constraints. We review the developments that permit the representation of plant demographics in ESMs, and identify issues raised by these developments that highlight important gaps in ecological understanding. These issues inevitably translate into uncertainty in model projections butmore » also allow models to be applied to new processes and questions concerning the dynamics of real-world ecosystems. We also argue that stronger and more innovative connections to data, across the range of scales considered, are required to address these gaps in understanding. The development of first-generation land surface models as a unifying framework for ecophysiological understanding stimulated much research into plant physiological traits and gas exchange. Constraining predictions at ecologically relevant spatial and temporal scales will require a similar investment of effort and intensified inter-disciplinary communication.« less

Controlled Ecological Life Support System: Research and Development Guidelines

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mason, R. M. (Editor); Carden, J. L. (Editor)

1982-01-01

Results of a workshop designed to provide a base for initiating a program of research and development of controlled ecological life support systems (CELSS) are summarized. Included are an evaluation of a ground based manned demonstration as a milestone in CELSS development, and a discussion of development requirements for a successful ground based CELSS demonstration. Research recommendations are presented concerning the following topics: nutrition and food processing, food production, waste processing, systems engineering and modelling, and ecology-systems safety.

Ecological models supporting environmental decision making: a strategy for the future

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schmolke, Amelie; Thorbek, Pernille; DeAngelis, Donald L.; Grimm, Volker

2010-01-01

Ecological models are important for environmental decision support because they allow the consequences of alternative policies and management scenarios to be explored. However, current modeling practice is unsatisfactory. A literature review shows that the elements of good modeling practice have long been identified but are widely ignored. The reasons for this might include lack of involvement of decision makers, lack of incentives for modelers to follow good practice, and the use of inconsistent terminologies. As a strategy for the future, we propose a standard format for documenting models and their analyses: transparent and comprehensive ecological modeling (TRACE) documentation. This standard format will disclose all parts of the modeling process to scrutiny and make modeling itself more efficient and coherent.

Feedbacks between geomorphology and biota controlling Earth surface processes and landforms: A review of foundation concepts and current understandings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Corenblit, Dov; Baas, Andreas C. W.; Bornette, Gudrun; Darrozes, José; Delmotte, Sébastien; Francis, Robert A.; Gurnell, Angela M.; Julien, Frédéric; Naiman, Robert J.; Steiger, Johannes

2011-06-01

This review article presents recent advances in the field of biogeomorphology related to the reciprocal coupling between Earth surface processes and landforms, and ecological and evolutionary processes. The aim is to present to the Earth Science community ecological and evolutionary concepts and associated recent conceptual developments for linking geomorphology and biota. The novelty of the proposed perspective is that (1) in the presence of geomorphologic-engineer species, which modify sediment and landform dynamics, natural selection operating at the scale of organisms may have consequences for the physical components of ecosystems, and particularly Earth surface processes and landforms; and (2) in return, these modifications of geomorphologic processes and landforms often feed back to the ecological characteristics of the ecosystem (structure and function) and thus to biological characteristics of engineer species and/or other species (adaptation and speciation). The main foundation concepts from ecology and evolutionary biology which have led only recently to an improved conception of landform dynamics in geomorphology are reviewed and discussed. The biogeomorphologic macroevolutionary insights proposed explicitly integrate geomorphologic niche-dimensions and processes within an ecosystem framework and reflect current theories of eco-evolutionary and ecological processes. Collectively, these lead to the definition of an integrated model describing the overall functioning of biogeomorphologic systems over ecological and evolutionary timescales.

What defines an adaptive radiation? Macroevolutionary diversification dynamics of an exceptionally species-rich continental lizard radiation.

PubMed

Pincheira-Donoso, Daniel; Harvey, Lilly P; Ruta, Marcello

2015-08-07

Adaptive radiation theory posits that ecological opportunity promotes rapid proliferation of phylogenetic and ecological diversity. Given that adaptive radiation proceeds via occupation of available niche space in newly accessed ecological zones, theory predicts that: (i) evolutionary diversification follows an 'early-burst' process, i.e., it accelerates early in the history of a clade (when available niche space facilitates speciation), and subsequently slows down as niche space becomes saturated by new species; and (ii) phylogenetic branching is accompanied by diversification of ecologically relevant phenotypic traits among newly evolving species. Here, we employ macroevolutionary phylogenetic model-selection analyses to address these two predictions about evolutionary diversification using one of the most exceptionally species-rich and ecologically diverse lineages of living vertebrates, the South American lizard genus Liolaemus. Our phylogenetic analyses lend support to a density-dependent lineage diversification model. However, the lineage through-time diversification curve does not provide strong support for an early burst. In contrast, the evolution of phenotypic (body size) relative disparity is high, significantly different from a Brownian model during approximately the last 5 million years of Liolaemus evolution. Model-fitting analyses also reject the 'early-burst' model of phenotypic evolution, and instead favour stabilizing selection (Ornstein-Uhlenbeck, with three peaks identified) as the best model for body size diversification. Finally, diversification rates tend to increase with smaller body size. Liolaemus have diversified under a density-dependent process with slightly pronounced apparent episodic pulses of lineage accumulation, which are compatible with the expected episodic ecological opportunity created by gradual uplifts of the Andes over the last ~25My. We argue that ecological opportunity can be strong and a crucial driver of adaptive radiations in continents, but may emerge less frequently (compared to islands) when major events (e.g., climatic, geographic) significantly modify environments. In contrast, body size diversification conforms to an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model with multiple trait optima. Despite this asymmetric diversification between both lineages and phenotype, links are expected to exist between the two processes, as shown by our trait-dependent analyses of diversification. We finally suggest that the definition of adaptive radiation should not be conditioned by the existence of early-bursts of diversification, and should instead be generalized to lineages in which species and ecological diversity have evolved from a single ancestor.

Dynamics of buckbrush populations under simulated forest restoration alternatives

Treesearch

David W. Huffman; Margaret M. Moore

2008-01-01

Plant population models are valuable tools for assessing ecological tradeoffs between forest management approaches. In addition, these models can provide insight on plant life history patterns and processes important for persistence and recovery of populations in changing environments. In this study, we evaluated a set of ecological restoration alternatives for their...

Dynamics of buckbrush populations under simulated forest restoration alternatives (P-53)

Treesearch

David W. Huffman; Margaret M. Moore

2008-01-01

Plant population models are valuable tools for assessing ecological tradeoffs between forest management approaches. In addition, these models can provide insight on plant life history patterns and processes important for persistence and recovery of populations in changing environments. In this study, we evaluated a set of ecological restoration alternatives for their...

A Model of Practice in Special Education: Dynamic Ecological Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hannant, Barbara; Lim, Eng Leong; McAllum, Ruth

2010-01-01

Dynamic Ecological Analysis (DEA) is a model of practice which increases a teams' efficacy by enabling the development of more effective interventions through collaboration and collective reflection. This process has proved to be useful in: a) clarifying thinking and problem-solving, b) transferring knowledge and thinking to significant parties,…

Neutral model analysis of landscape patterns from mathematical morphology

Treesearch

Kurt H. Riitters; Peter Vogt; Pierre Soille; Jacek Kozak; Christine Estreguil

2007-01-01

Mathematical morphology encompasses methods for characterizing land-cover patterns in ecological research and biodiversity assessments. This paper reports a neutral model analysis of patterns in the absence of a structuring ecological process, to help set standards for comparing and interpreting patterns identified by mathematical morphology on real land-cover maps. We...

Simulation and experimental studies of operators` decision styles and crew composition while using an ecological and traditional user interface for the control room of a nuclear power plant

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Meshkati, N.; Buller, B.J.; Azadeh, M.A.

1995-04-01

The goal of this research is threefold: (1) use of the Skill-, Rule-, and Knowledge-based levels of cognitive control -- the SRK framework -- to develop an integrated information processing conceptual framework (for integration of workstation, job, and team design); (2) to evaluate the user interface component of this framework -- the Ecological display; and (3) to analyze the effect of operators` individual information processing behavior and decision styles on handling plant disturbances plus their performance on, and preference for, Traditional and Ecological user interfaces. A series of studies were conducted. In Part I, a computer simulation model and amore » mathematical model were developed. In Part II, an experiment was designed and conducted at the EBR-II plant of the Argonne National Laboratory-West in Idaho Falls, Idaho. It is concluded that: the integrated SRK-based information processing model for control room operations is superior to the conventional rule-based model; operators` individual decision styles and the combination of their styles play a significant role in effective handling of nuclear power plant disturbances; use of the Ecological interface results in significantly more accurate event diagnosis and recall of various plant parameters, faster response to plant transients, and higher ratings of subject preference; and operators` decision styles affect on both their performance and preference for the Ecological interface.« less

Analysis of urban metabolic processes based on input-output method: model development and a case study for Beijing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yan; Liu, Hong; Chen, Bin; Zheng, Hongmei; Li, Yating

2014-06-01

Discovering ways in which to increase the sustainability of the metabolic processes involved in urbanization has become an urgent task for urban design and management in China. As cities are analogous to living organisms, the disorders of their metabolic processes can be regarded as the cause of "urban disease". Therefore, identification of these causes through metabolic process analysis and ecological element distribution through the urban ecosystem's compartments will be helpful. By using Beijing as an example, we have compiled monetary input-output tables from 1997, 2000, 2002, 2005, and 2007 and calculated the intensities of the embodied ecological elements to compile the corresponding implied physical input-output tables. We then divided Beijing's economy into 32 compartments and analyzed the direct and indirect ecological intensities embodied in the flows of ecological elements through urban metabolic processes. Based on the combination of input-output tables and ecological network analysis, the description of multiple ecological elements transferred among Beijing's industrial compartments and their distribution has been refined. This hybrid approach can provide a more scientific basis for management of urban resource flows. In addition, the data obtained from distribution characteristics of ecological elements may provide a basic data platform for exploring the metabolic mechanism of Beijing.

An Institutional Mechanism for Assortment in an Ecology of Games

PubMed Central

Smaldino, Paul E.; Lubell, Mark

2011-01-01

Recent research has revived Long's “ecology of games” model to analyze how social actors cooperate in the context of multiple political and social games. However, there is still a paucity of theoretical work that considers the mechanisms by which large-scale cooperation can be promoted in a dynamic institutional landscape, in which actors can join new games and leave old ones. This paper develops an agent-based model of an ecology of games where agents participate in multiple public goods games. In addition to contribution decisions, the agents can leave and join different games, and these processes are de-coupled. We show that the payoff for cooperation is greater than for defection when limits to the number of actors per game (“capacity constraints”) structure the population in ways that allow cooperators to cluster, independent of any complex individual-level mechanisms such as reputation or punishment. Our model suggests that capacity constraints are one effective mechanism for producing positive assortment and increasing cooperation in an ecology of games. The results suggest an important trade-off between the inclusiveness of policy processes and cooperation: Fully inclusive policy processes reduce the chances of cooperation. PMID:21850249

The Effects of Poverty on Children's Socioemotional Development: An Ecological Systems Analysis.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Eamon, Mary Keegan

2001-01-01

Bronfenbrenner's process-person-context-time model is used to examine theories that explain adverse effects of economic deprivation on children's socioemotional development. Processes of not only the family, but also those of the peer group and school, and in other levels of the ecological environment may also explain the relation between economic…

Estimating and mapping ecological processes influencing microbial community assembly

PubMed Central

Stegen, James C.; Lin, Xueju; Fredrickson, Jim K.; Konopka, Allan E.

2015-01-01

Ecological community assembly is governed by a combination of (i) selection resulting from among-taxa differences in performance; (ii) dispersal resulting from organismal movement; and (iii) ecological drift resulting from stochastic changes in population sizes. The relative importance and nature of these processes can vary across environments. Selection can be homogeneous or variable, and while dispersal is a rate, we conceptualize extreme dispersal rates as two categories; dispersal limitation results from limited exchange of organisms among communities, and homogenizing dispersal results from high levels of organism exchange. To estimate the influence and spatial variation of each process we extend a recently developed statistical framework, use a simulation model to evaluate the accuracy of the extended framework, and use the framework to examine subsurface microbial communities over two geologic formations. For each subsurface community we estimate the degree to which it is influenced by homogeneous selection, variable selection, dispersal limitation, and homogenizing dispersal. Our analyses revealed that the relative influences of these ecological processes vary substantially across communities even within a geologic formation. We further identify environmental and spatial features associated with each ecological process, which allowed mapping of spatial variation in ecological-process-influences. The resulting maps provide a new lens through which ecological systems can be understood; in the subsurface system investigated here they revealed that the influence of variable selection was associated with the rate at which redox conditions change with subsurface depth. PMID:25983725

Perspectives on why digital ecologies matter: combining population genetics and ecologically informed agent-based models with GIS for managing dipteran livestock pests.

PubMed

Peck, Steven L

2014-10-01

It is becoming clear that handling the inherent complexity found in ecological systems is an essential task for finding ways to control insect pests of tropical livestock such as tsetse flies, and old and new world screwworms. In particular, challenging multivalent management programs, such as Area Wide Integrated Pest Management (AW-IPM), face daunting problems of complexity at multiple spatial scales, ranging from landscape level processes to those of smaller scales such as the parasite loads of individual animals. Daunting temporal challenges also await resolution, such as matching management time frames to those found on ecological and even evolutionary temporal scales. How does one deal with representing processes with models that involve multiple spatial and temporal scales? Agent-based models (ABM), combined with geographic information systems (GIS), may allow for understanding, predicting and managing pest control efforts in livestock pests. This paper argues that by incorporating digital ecologies in our management efforts clearer and more informed decisions can be made. I also point out the power of these models in making better predictions in order to anticipate the range of outcomes possible or likely. Copyright © 2014 International Atomic Energy Agency 2014. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Using a neural network approach and time series data from an international monitoring station in the Yellow Sea for modeling marine ecosystems.

PubMed

Zhang, Yingying; Wang, Juncheng; Vorontsov, A M; Hou, Guangli; Nikanorova, M N; Wang, Hongliang

2014-01-01

The international marine ecological safety monitoring demonstration station in the Yellow Sea was developed as a collaborative project between China and Russia. It is a nonprofit technical workstation designed as a facility for marine scientific research for public welfare. By undertaking long-term monitoring of the marine environment and automatic data collection, this station will provide valuable information for marine ecological protection and disaster prevention and reduction. The results of some initial research by scientists at the research station into predictive modeling of marine ecological environments and early warning are described in this paper. Marine ecological processes are influenced by many factors including hydrological and meteorological conditions, biological factors, and human activities. Consequently, it is very difficult to incorporate all these influences and their interactions in a deterministic or analysis model. A prediction model integrating a time series prediction approach with neural network nonlinear modeling is proposed for marine ecological parameters. The model explores the natural fluctuations in marine ecological parameters by learning from the latest observed data automatically, and then predicting future values of the parameter. The model is updated in a "rolling" fashion with new observed data from the monitoring station. Prediction experiments results showed that the neural network prediction model based on time series data is effective for marine ecological prediction and can be used for the development of early warning systems.

Social Interface Model: Theorizing Ecological Post-Delivery Processes for Intervention Effects.

PubMed

Pettigrew, Jonathan; Segrott, Jeremy; Ray, Colter D; Littlecott, Hannah

2018-01-03

Successful prevention programs depend on a complex interplay among aspects of the intervention, the participant, the specific intervention setting, and the broader set of contexts with which a participant interacts. There is a need to theorize what happens as participants bring intervention ideas and behaviors into other life-contexts, and theory has not yet specified how social interactions about interventions may influence outcomes. To address this gap, we use an ecological perspective to develop the social interface model. This paper presents the key components of the model and its potential to aid the design and implementation of prevention interventions. The model is predicated on the idea that intervention message effectiveness depends not only on message aspects but also on the participants' adoption and adaptation of the message vis-à-vis their social ecology. The model depicts processes by which intervention messages are received and enacted by participants through social processes occurring within and between relevant microsystems. Mesosystem interfaces (negligible interface, transference, co-dependence, and interdependence) can facilitate or detract from intervention effects. The social interface model advances prevention science by theorizing that practitioners can create better quality interventions by planning for what occurs after interventions are delivered.

Movement ecology: size-specific behavioral response of an invasive snail to food availability.

PubMed

Snider, Sunny B; Gilliam, James F

2008-07-01

Immigration, emigration, migration, and redistribution describe processes that involve movement of individuals. These movements are an essential part of contemporary ecological models, and understanding how movement is affected by biotic and abiotic factors is important for effectively modeling ecological processes that depend on movement. We asked how phenotypic heterogeneity (body size) and environmental heterogeneity (food resource level) affect the movement behavior of an aquatic snail (Tarebia granifera), and whether including these phenotypic and environmental effects improves advection-diffusion models of movement. We postulated various elaborations of the basic advection diffusion model as a priori working hypotheses. To test our hypotheses we measured individual snail movements in experimental streams at high- and low-food resource treatments. Using these experimental movement data, we examined the dependency of model selection on resource level and body size using Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC). At low resources, large individuals moved faster than small individuals, producing a platykurtic movement distribution; including size dependency in the model improved model performance. In stark contrast, at high resources, individuals moved upstream together as a wave, and body size differences largely disappeared. The model selection exercise indicated that population heterogeneity is best described by the advection component of movement for this species, because the top-ranked model included size dependency in advection, but not diffusion. Also, all probable models included resource dependency. Thus population and environmental heterogeneities both influence individual movement behaviors and the population-level distribution kernels, and their interaction may drive variation in movement behaviors in terms of both advection rates and diffusion rates. A behaviorally informed modeling framework will integrate the sentient response of individuals in terms of movement and enhance our ability to accurately model ecological processes that depend on animal movement.

Simulating ecological changes caused by marine energy devices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schuchert, Pia; Elsaesser, Bjoern; Pritchard, Daniel; Kregting, Louise

2015-04-01

Marine renewable energy from wave and tidal technology has the potential to contribute significantly globally to energy security for future generations. However common to both tidal and wave energy extraction systems is concern regarding the potential environmental consequences of the deployment of the technology as environmental and ecological effects are so far poorly understood. Ecological surveys and studies to investigate the environmental impacts are time consuming and costly and are generally reactive; a more efficient approach is to develop 2 and 3D linked hydrodynamic-ecological modelling which has the potential to be proactive and to allow forecasting of the effects of array installation. The objective of the study was to explore tools which can help model and evaluate possible far- and near field changes in the environment and ecosystem caused by the introduction of arrays of marine energy devices. Using the commercial software, MIKE by DHI, we can predict and model possible changes in the ecosystem. MIKE21 and ECOLab modelling software provide the opportunity to couple high level hydrodynamic models with process based ecological models and/or agent based models (ABM). The flow solutions of the model were determined in an idealised tidal basin with the dimensions similar to that of Strangford Lough, Northern Ireland, a body of water renowned for the location of the first grid-connected tidal turbine, SeaGen. In the first instance a simple process oriented ecological NPZD model was developed which are used to model marine and freshwater systems describing four state variables, Nutrient, Phytoplankton, Zooplankton and Detritus. The ecological model was run and evaluated under two hydrodynamic scenarios of the idealised basin. This included no tidal turbines (control) and an array of 55 turbines, an extreme scenario. Whilst an array of turbines has an effect on the hydrodynamics of the Lough, it is unlikely to see an extreme effect on the NPZD model. Further assessment on primary productivity and filter feeders is currently being implemented to assess impacts on these biological systems. Using MIKE software opens up many further possibilities to allow insights into the impacts of marine energy devices on the ecosystem.

Climate Change Vulnerability of Agro-Ecosystems: Does socio-economic factors matters?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Surendran Nair, S.; Preston, B. L.; King, A. W.; Mei, R.; Post, W. M.

2013-12-01

Climate variability and change has direct impacts on agriculture. Despite continual adaptation to climate as well as gains in technology innovation and adoption, agriculture is still vulnerable to changes in temperature and precipitation expected in coming decades. Generally, researchers use two major methodologies to understand the vulnerability of agro-ecosystems to climate change: process-based crop models and empirical models. However, these models are not yet designed to capture the influence of socioeconomic systems on agro-ecosystem processes and outcomes.. However, socioeconomic processes are an important factor driving agro-ecological responses to biophysical processes (climate, topography and soil), because of the role of human agency in mediating the response of agro-ecosystems to climate. We have developed a framework that integrates socioeconomic and biophysical characteristics of agro-ecosystems using cluster analysis and GIS tools. This framework has been applied to the U.S. Southeast to define unique socio-ecological domains for agriculture. The results demonstrate that socioeconomic characteristics are an important factor influencing agriculture production. These results suggest that the lack of attention to socioeconomic conditions and human agency in agro-ecological modeling creates a potential bias with respect to the representation of climate change impacts.

The Drosophila flavopilosa species group (Diptera, Drosophilidae)

PubMed Central

Robe, Lizandra J.; De Ré, Francine Cenzi; Ludwig, Adriana; Loreto, Elgion L.S.

2013-01-01

The D. flavopilosa group encompasses an ecologically restricted set of species strictly adapted to hosting flowers of Cestrum (Solanaceae). This group presents potential to be used as a model to the study of different questions regarding ecologically restricted species macro and microevolutionary responses, geographical vs. ecological speciation and intra and interspecific competition. This review aims to revisit and reanalyze the patterns and processes that are subjacent to the interesting ecological and evolutionary properties of these species. Biotic and abiotic niche properties of some species were reanalyzed in face of ecological niche modeling approaches in order to get some insights into their ecological evolution. A test of the potential of DNA-Barcoding provided evidences that this technology may be a way of overcoming difficulties related to cryptic species differentiation. The new focus replenishes the scenario with new questions, presenting a case where neither geographical nor ecological speciation may be as yet suggested. PMID:23459119

Models and Muddles in Human Ecology: An Examination of High School Crime Rates. Report No. 255.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gottfredson, Gary D.

Recent research in the human ecological tradition has made increasing use of causal modeling in the search for understanding of aggregate-level social processes. This approach has great appeal because it helps make hypotheses explicit, provides a convenient way to structure the application of statistical controls, allows the representation of…

Rooting Theories of Plant Community Ecology in Microbial Interactions

PubMed Central

Bever, James D.; Dickie, Ian A.; Facelli, Evelina; Facelli, Jose M.; Klironomos, John; Moora, Mari; Rillig, Matthias C.; Stock, William D.; Tibbett, Mark; Zobel, Martin

2010-01-01

Predominant frameworks for understanding plant ecology have an aboveground bias that neglects soil micro-organisms. This is inconsistent with recent work illustrating the importance of soil microbes in terrestrial ecology. Microbial effects have been incorporated into plant community dynamics using ideas of niche modification and plant-soil community feedbacks. Here, we expand and integrate qualitative conceptual models of plant niche and feedback to explore implications of microbial interactions for understanding plant community ecology. At the same time we review the empirical evidence for these processes. We also consider common mycorrhizal networks, and suggest these are best interpreted within the feedback framework. Finally, we apply our integrated model of niche and feedback to understanding plant coexistence, monodominance, and invasion ecology. PMID:20557974

Process-Driven Ecological Modeling for Landscape Change Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Altman, S.; Reif, M. K.; Swannack, T. M.

2013-12-01

Landscape pattern is an important driver in ecosystem dynamics and can control system-level functions such as nutrient cycling, connectivity, biodiversity and carbon sequestration. However, the links between process, pattern and function remain ambiguous. Understanding the quantitative relationship between ecological processes and landscape pattern across temporal and spatial scales is vital for successful management and implementation of ecosystem-level projects. We used remote sensing imagery to develop critical landscape metrics to understand the factors influencing landscape change. Our study area, a coastal area in southwest Florida, is highly dynamic with critically eroding beaches and a range of natural and developed land cover types. Hurricanes in 2004 and 2005 caused a breach along the coast of North Captiva Island that filled in by 2010. We used a time series of light detection and ranging (lidar) elevation data and hyperspectral imagery from 2006 and 2010 to determine land cover changes. Landscape level metrics used included: Largest Patch Index, Class Area, Area-weighted mean area, Clumpiness, Area-weighted Contiguity Index, Number of Patches, Percent of landcover, Area-weighted Shape. Our results showed 1) 27% increase in sand/soil class as the channel repaired itself and shoreline was reestablished, 2) 40% decrease in the mudflat class area due to conversion to sand/soil and water, 3) 30% increase in non-wetland vegetation class as a result of new vegetation around the repaired channel, and 4) the water class only slightly increased though there was a marked increase in the patch size area. Thus, the smaller channels disappeared with the infilling of the channel, leaving much larger, less complex patches behind the breach. Our analysis demonstrated that quantification of landscape pattern is critical to linking patterns to ecological processes and understanding how both affect landscape change. Our proof of concept indicated that ecological processes can correlate to landscape pattern and that ecosystem function changes significantly as pattern changes. However, the number of links between landscape metrics and ecological processes are highly variable. Extensively studied processes such as biodiversity can be linked to numerous landscape metrics. In contrast, correlations between sediment cycling and landscape pattern have only been evaluated for a limited number of metrics. We are incorporating these data into a relational database linking landscape and ecological patterns, processes and metrics. The database will be used to parameterize site-specific landscape evolution models projecting how landscape pattern will change as a result of future ecosystem restoration projects. The model is a spatially-explicit, grid-based model that projects changes in community composition based on changes in soil elevations. To capture scalar differences in landscape change, local and regional landscape metrics are analyzed at each time step and correlated with ecological processes to determine how ecosystem function changes with scale over time.

Ecological communities with Lotka-Volterra dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bunin, Guy

2017-04-01

Ecological communities in heterogeneous environments assemble through the combined effect of species interaction and migration. Understanding the effect of these processes on the community properties is central to ecology. Here we study these processes for a single community subject to migration from a pool of species, with population dynamics described by the generalized Lotka-Volterra equations. We derive exact results for the phase diagram describing the dynamical behaviors, and for the diversity and species abundance distributions. A phase transition is found from a phase where a unique globally attractive fixed point exists to a phase where multiple dynamical attractors exist, leading to history-dependent community properties. The model is shown to possess a symmetry that also establishes a connection with other well-known models.

Ecological communities with Lotka-Volterra dynamics.

PubMed

Bunin, Guy

2017-04-01

Ecological communities in heterogeneous environments assemble through the combined effect of species interaction and migration. Understanding the effect of these processes on the community properties is central to ecology. Here we study these processes for a single community subject to migration from a pool of species, with population dynamics described by the generalized Lotka-Volterra equations. We derive exact results for the phase diagram describing the dynamical behaviors, and for the diversity and species abundance distributions. A phase transition is found from a phase where a unique globally attractive fixed point exists to a phase where multiple dynamical attractors exist, leading to history-dependent community properties. The model is shown to possess a symmetry that also establishes a connection with other well-known models.

Response mechanisms of conifers to air pollutants

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Matyssek, R.; Reich, P.; Oren, R.

1995-07-01

Conifers are known to respond to SO{sub 2}, O{sub 3}, NO{sub x} and acid deposition. Of these pollutants, O{sub 3} is likely the most widespread and phytotoxic compound, and therefore of great interest to individuals concerned with forest resources Direct biological responses have a toxicological effects on metabolism which can then scale to effects on tree growth and forest ecology, including processes of competition and succession. Air pollution can cause reductions in photosynthesis and stomatal conductance, which are the physiological parameters most rigorously studied for conifers. Some effects air pollutants can have on plants are influenced by the presence ofmore » co-occurring environmental stresses. For example, drought usually reduces vulnerability of plants to air pollution. In addition, air pollution sensitivity may differ among species and with plant/leaf age. Plants may make short-term physiological adjustments to compensate for air pollution or may evolve resistance to air pollution through the processes of selection. Models are necessary to understand how physiological processes, growth processes, and ecological processes are affected by air pollutants. The process of defining the ecological risk that air pollutants pose for coniferous forests requires approaches that exploit existing databases, environmental monitoring of air pollutants and forest resources, experiments with well-defined air pollution treatments and environmental control/monitoring, modeling, predicting air pollution-caused changes in productivity and ecological processes over time and space, and integration of social values.« less

[Assessment on the ecological suitability in Zhuhai City, Guangdong, China, based on minimum cumulative resistance model].

PubMed

Li, Jian-fei; Li, Lin; Guo, Luo; Du, Shi-hong

2016-01-01

Urban landscape has the characteristics of spatial heterogeneity. Because the expansion process of urban constructive or ecological land has different resistance values, the land unit stimulates and promotes the expansion of ecological land with different intensity. To compare the effect of promoting and hindering functions in the same land unit, we firstly compared the minimum cumulative resistance value of promoting and hindering functions, and then looked for the balance of two landscape processes under the same standard. According to the ecology principle of minimum limit factor, taking the minimum cumulative resistance analysis method under two expansion processes as the evaluation method of urban land ecological suitability, this research took Zhuhai City as the study area to estimate urban ecological suitability by relative evaluation method with remote sensing image, field survey, and statistics data. With the support of ArcGIS, five types of indicators on landscape types, ecological value, soil erosion sensitivity, sensitivity of geological disasters, and ecological function were selected as input parameters in the minimum cumulative resistance model to compute urban ecological suitability. The results showed that the ecological suitability of the whole Zhuhai City was divided into five levels: constructive expansion prohibited zone (10.1%), constructive expansion restricted zone (32.9%), key construction zone (36.3%), priority development zone (2.3%), and basic cropland (18.4%). Ecological suitability of the central area of Zhuhai City was divided into four levels: constructive expansion prohibited zone (11.6%), constructive expansion restricted zone (25.6%), key construction zone (52.4%), priority development zone (10.4%). Finally, we put forward the sustainable development framework of Zhuhai City according to the research conclusion. On one hand, the government should strictly control the development of the urban center area. On the other hand, the secondary urban center area such as Junchang and Doumen need improve the public infrastructure to relieve the imbalance between eastern and western development in Zhuhai City.

System dynamic modelling to assess economic viability and risk trade-offs for ecological restoration in South Africa.

PubMed

Crookes, D J; Blignaut, J N; de Wit, M P; Esler, K J; Le Maitre, D C; Milton, S J; Mitchell, S A; Cloete, J; de Abreu, P; Fourie nee Vlok, H; Gull, K; Marx, D; Mugido, W; Ndhlovu, T; Nowell, M; Pauw, M; Rebelo, A

2013-05-15

Can markets assist by providing support for ecological restoration, and if so, under what conditions? The first step in addressing this question is to develop a consistent methodology for economic evaluation of ecological restoration projects. A risk analysis process was followed in which a system dynamics model was constructed for eight diverse case study sites where ecological restoration is currently being pursued. Restoration costs vary across each of these sites, as do the benefits associated with restored ecosystem functioning. The system dynamics model simulates the ecological, hydrological and economic benefits of ecological restoration and informs a portfolio mapping exercise where payoffs are matched against the likelihood of success of a project, as well as a number of other factors (such as project costs and risk measures). This is the first known application that couples ecological restoration with system dynamics and portfolio mapping. The results suggest an approach that is able to move beyond traditional indicators of project success, since the effect of discounting is virtually eliminated. We conclude that systems dynamic modelling with portfolio mapping can guide decisions on when markets for restoration activities may be feasible. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Forest forming process and dynamic vegetation models under global change

Treesearch

A. Shvidenko; E. Gustafson

2009-01-01

The paper analyzes mathematical models that are used to project the dynamics of forest ecosystems on different spatial and temporal scales. Landscape disturbance and succession models (LDSMs) are of a particular interest for studying the forest forming process in Northern Eurasia. They have a solid empirical background and are able to model ecological processes under...

Marginal Utility of Conditional Sensitivity Analyses for Dynamic Models

EPA Science Inventory

Background/Question/MethodsDynamic ecological processes may be influenced by many factors. Simulation models thatmimic these processes often have complex implementations with many parameters. Sensitivityanalyses are subsequently used to identify critical parameters whose uncertai...

Application of hierarchical Bayesian unmixing models in river sediment source apportionment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blake, Will; Smith, Hugh; Navas, Ana; Bodé, Samuel; Goddard, Rupert; Zou Kuzyk, Zou; Lennard, Amy; Lobb, David; Owens, Phil; Palazon, Leticia; Petticrew, Ellen; Gaspar, Leticia; Stock, Brian; Boeckx, Pacsal; Semmens, Brice

2016-04-01

Fingerprinting and unmixing concepts are used widely across environmental disciplines for forensic evaluation of pollutant sources. In aquatic and marine systems, this includes tracking the source of organic and inorganic pollutants in water and linking problem sediment to soil erosion and land use sources. It is, however, the particular complexity of ecological systems that has driven creation of the most sophisticated mixing models, primarily to (i) evaluate diet composition in complex ecological food webs, (ii) inform population structure and (iii) explore animal movement. In the context of the new hierarchical Bayesian unmixing model, MIXSIAR, developed to characterise intra-population niche variation in ecological systems, we evaluate the linkage between ecological 'prey' and 'consumer' concepts and river basin sediment 'source' and sediment 'mixtures' to exemplify the value of ecological modelling tools to river basin science. Recent studies have outlined advantages presented by Bayesian unmixing approaches in handling complex source and mixture datasets while dealing appropriately with uncertainty in parameter probability distributions. MixSIAR is unique in that it allows individual fixed and random effects associated with mixture hierarchy, i.e. factors that might exert an influence on model outcome for mixture groups, to be explored within the source-receptor framework. This offers new and powerful ways of interpreting river basin apportionment data. In this contribution, key components of the model are evaluated in the context of common experimental designs for sediment fingerprinting studies namely simple, nested and distributed catchment sampling programmes. Illustrative examples using geochemical and compound specific stable isotope datasets are presented and used to discuss best practice with specific attention to (1) the tracer selection process, (2) incorporation of fixed effects relating to sample timeframe and sediment type in the modelling process, (3) deriving and using informative priors in sediment fingerprinting context and (4) transparency of the process and replication of model results by other users.

Simple processes drive unpredictable differences in estuarine fish assemblages: Baselines for understanding site-specific ecological and anthropogenic impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheaves, Marcus

2016-03-01

Predicting patterns of abundance and composition of biotic assemblages is essential to our understanding of key ecological processes, and our ability to monitor, evaluate and manage assemblages and ecosystems. Fish assemblages often vary from estuary to estuary in apparently unpredictable ways, making it challenging to develop a general understanding of the processes that determine assemblage composition. This makes it problematic to transfer understanding from one estuary situation to another and therefore difficult to assemble effective management plans or to assess the impacts of natural and anthropogenic disturbance. Although system-to-system variability is a common property of ecological systems, rather than being random it is the product of complex interactions of multiple causes and effects at a variety of spatial and temporal scales. I investigate the drivers of differences in estuary fish assemblages, to develop a simple model explaining the diversity and complexity of observed estuary-to-estuary differences, and explore its implications for management and conservation. The model attributes apparently unpredictable differences in fish assemblage composition from estuary to estuary to the interaction of species-specific, life history-specific and scale-specific processes. In explaining innate faunal differences among estuaries without the need to invoke complex ecological or anthropogenic drivers, the model provides a baseline against which the effects of additional natural and anthropogenic factors can be evaluated.

Estimating and mapping ecological processes influencing microbial community assembly

DOE PAGES

Stegen, James C.; Lin, Xueju; Fredrickson, Jim K.; ...

2015-05-01

Ecological community assembly is governed by a combination of (i) selection resulting from among-taxa differences in performance; (ii) dispersal resulting from organismal movement; and (iii) ecological drift resulting from stochastic changes in population sizes. The relative importance and nature of these processes can vary across environments. Selection can be homogeneous or variable, and while dispersal is a rate, we conceptualize extreme dispersal rates as two categories; dispersal limitation results from limited exchange of organisms among communities, and homogenizing dispersal results from high levels of organism exchange. To estimate the influence and spatial variation of each process we extend a recentlymore » developed statistical framework, use a simulation model to evaluate the accuracy of the extended framework, and use the framework to examine subsurface microbial communities over two geologic formations. For each subsurface community we estimate the degree to which it is influenced by homogeneous selection, variable selection, dispersal limitation, and homogenizing dispersal. Our analyses revealed that the relative influences of these ecological processes vary substantially across communities even within a geologic formation. We further identify environmental and spatial features associated with each ecological process, which allowed mapping of spatial variation in ecological-process-influences. The resulting maps provide a new lens through which ecological systems can be understood; in the subsurface system investigated here they revealed that the influence of variable selection was associated with the rate at which redox conditions change with subsurface depth.« less

Using process algebra to develop predator-prey models of within-host parasite dynamics.

PubMed

McCaig, Chris; Fenton, Andy; Graham, Andrea; Shankland, Carron; Norman, Rachel

2013-07-21

As a first approximation of immune-mediated within-host parasite dynamics we can consider the immune response as a predator, with the parasite as its prey. In the ecological literature of predator-prey interactions there are a number of different functional responses used to describe how a predator reproduces in response to consuming prey. Until recently most of the models of the immune system that have taken a predator-prey approach have used simple mass action dynamics to capture the interaction between the immune response and the parasite. More recently Fenton and Perkins (2010) employed three of the most commonly used prey-dependent functional response terms from the ecological literature. In this paper we make use of a technique from computing science, process algebra, to develop mathematical models. The novelty of the process algebra approach is to allow stochastic models of the population (parasite and immune cells) to be developed from rules of individual cell behaviour. By using this approach in which individual cellular behaviour is captured we have derived a ratio-dependent response similar to that seen in the previous models of immune-mediated parasite dynamics, confirming that, whilst this type of term is controversial in ecological predator-prey models, it is appropriate for models of the immune system. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Testing a Social Ecological Model for Relations between Political Violence and Child Adjustment in Northern Ireland

PubMed Central

Cummings, E. Mark; Merrilees, Christine E.; Schermerhorn, Alice C.; Goeke-Morey, Marcie C.; Shirlow, Peter; Cairns, Ed

2013-01-01

Relations between political violence and child adjustment are matters of international concern. Past research demonstrates the significance of community, family and child psychological processes in child adjustment, supporting study of inter-relations between multiple social ecological factors and child adjustment in contexts of political violence. Testing a social ecological model, 300 mothers and their children (M= 12.28 years, SD = 1.77) from Catholic and Protestant working class neighborhoods in Belfast, Northern Ireland completed measures of community discord, family relations, and children’s regulatory processes (i.e., emotional security) and outcomes. Historical political violence in neighborhoods based on objective records (i.e., politically motivated deaths) were related to family members’ reports of current sectarian and non-sectarian antisocial behavior. Interparental conflict and parental monitoring and children’s emotional security about both the community and family contributed to explanatory pathways for relations between sectarian antisocial behavior in communities and children’s adjustment problems. The discussion evaluates support for social ecological models for relations between political violence and child adjustment and its implications for understanding relations in other parts of the world. PMID:20423550

Testing a social ecological model for relations between political violence and child adjustment in Northern Ireland.

PubMed

Cummings, E Mark; Merrilees, Christine E; Schermerhorn, Alice C; Goeke-Morey, Marcie C; Shirlow, Peter; Cairns, Ed

2010-05-01

Relations between political violence and child adjustment are matters of international concern. Past research demonstrates the significance of community, family, and child psychological processes in child adjustment, supporting study of interrelations between multiple social ecological factors and child adjustment in contexts of political violence. Testing a social ecological model, 300 mothers and their children (M = 12.28 years, SD = 1.77) from Catholic and Protestant working class neighborhoods in Belfast, Northern Ireland, completed measures of community discord, family relations, and children's regulatory processes (i.e., emotional security) and outcomes. Historical political violence in neighborhoods based on objective records (i.e., politically motivated deaths) were related to family members' reports of current sectarian antisocial behavior and nonsectarian antisocial behavior. Interparental conflict and parental monitoring and children's emotional security about both the community and family contributed to explanatory pathways for relations between sectarian antisocial behavior in communities and children's adjustment problems. The discussion evaluates support for social ecological models for relations between political violence and child adjustment and its implications for understanding relations in other parts of the world.

Optimization of the scheme for natural ecology planning of urban rivers based on ANP (analytic network process) model.

PubMed

Zhang, Yichuan; Wang, Jiangping

2015-07-01

Rivers serve as a highly valued component in ecosystem and urban infrastructures. River planning should follow basic principles of maintaining or reconstructing the natural landscape and ecological functions of rivers. Optimization of planning scheme is a prerequisite for successful construction of urban rivers. Therefore, relevant studies on optimization of scheme for natural ecology planning of rivers is crucial. In the present study, four planning schemes for Zhaodingpal River in Xinxiang City, Henan Province were included as the objects for optimization. Fourteen factors that influenced the natural ecology planning of urban rivers were selected from five aspects so as to establish the ANP model. The data processing was done using Super Decisions software. The results showed that important degree of scheme 3 was highest. A scientific, reasonable and accurate evaluation of schemes could be made by ANP method on natural ecology planning of urban rivers. This method could be used to provide references for sustainable development and construction of urban rivers. ANP method is also suitable for optimization of schemes for urban green space planning and design.

Theoretical Approaches in Evolutionary Ecology: Environmental Feedback as a Unifying Perspective.

PubMed

Lion, Sébastien

2018-01-01

Evolutionary biology and ecology have a strong theoretical underpinning, and this has fostered a variety of modeling approaches. A major challenge of this theoretical work has been to unravel the tangled feedback loop between ecology and evolution. This has prompted the development of two main classes of models. While quantitative genetics models jointly consider the ecological and evolutionary dynamics of a focal population, a separation of timescales between ecology and evolution is assumed by evolutionary game theory, adaptive dynamics, and inclusive fitness theory. As a result, theoretical evolutionary ecology tends to be divided among different schools of thought, with different toolboxes and motivations. My aim in this synthesis is to highlight the connections between these different approaches and clarify the current state of theory in evolutionary ecology. Central to this approach is to make explicit the dependence on environmental dynamics of the population and evolutionary dynamics, thereby materializing the eco-evolutionary feedback loop. This perspective sheds light on the interplay between environmental feedback and the timescales of ecological and evolutionary processes. I conclude by discussing some potential extensions and challenges to our current theoretical understanding of eco-evolutionary dynamics.

Cryptic diversity in a fig wasp community-morphologically differentiated species are sympatric but cryptic species are parapatric.

PubMed

Darwell, C T; Cook, J M

2017-02-01

A key debate in ecology centres on the relative importance of niche and neutral processes in determining patterns of community assembly with particular focus on whether ecologically similar species with similar functional traits are able to coexist. Meanwhile, molecular studies are increasingly revealing morphologically indistinguishable cryptic species with presumably similar ecological roles. Determining the geographic distribution of such cryptic species provides opportunities to contrast predictions of niche vs. neutral models. Discovery of sympatric cryptic species increases alpha diversity and supports neutral models, while documentation of allopatric/parapatric cryptic species increases beta diversity and supports niche models. We tested these predictions using morphological and molecular data, coupled with environmental niche modelling analyses, of a fig wasp community along its 2700-km latitudinal range. Molecular methods increased previous species diversity estimates from eight to eleven species, revealing morphologically cryptic species in each of the four wasp genera studied. Congeneric species pairs that were differentiated by a key morphological functional trait (ovipositor length) coexisted sympatrically over large areas. In contrast, morphologically similar species, with similar ovipositor lengths, typically showed parapatric ranges with very little overlap. Despite parapatric ranges, environmental niche models of cryptic congeneric pairs indicate large regions of potential sympatry, suggesting that competitive processes are important in determining the distributions of ecologically similar species. Niche processes appear to structure this insect community, and cryptic diversity may typically contribute mostly to beta rather than alpha diversity. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Eco-Evo PVAs: Incorporating Eco-Evolutionary Processes into Population Viability Models

EPA Science Inventory

We synthesize how advances in computational methods and population genomics can be combined within an Ecological-Evolutionary (Eco-Evo) PVA model. Eco-Evo PVA models are powerful new tools for understanding the influence of evolutionary processes on plant and animal population pe...

Adaptive environmental management of tourism in the Province of Siena, Italy using the ecological footprint.

PubMed

Patterson, Trista M; Niccolucci, Valentina; Marchettini, Nadia

2008-01-01

Adaptive management as applied to tourism policy treats management policies as experiments that probe the responses of the system as human behavior changes. We present a conceptual systems model that incorporates the gap between observed and desired levels of the ecological footprint with respect to biocapacity. Addressing this gap (or 'overshoot') can inform strategies to increase or decrease visitation or its associated consumption in the coming years. The feedback mechanism in this conceptual model incorporates a gap between observed and desired ecological footprint levels of tourists and residents. The work is based on longer-term and ongoing study of tourism impacts and ecological footprint assessments from the SPIN-Eco Project. We present historical tourism and environmental data from the province of Siena, Italy and discuss the use of discrete, static environmental indicators as part of an iterative feedback process to manage tourism within biophysical limits. We discuss a necessary shift of emphasis from certain and static numbers to a process-based management model that can reflect slow changes to biophysical resources. As underscored by ecological footprint analysis, the energy and material use associated with tourism and local activity can erode natural capital foundations if that use exceeds the area's biological capacity to support it. The dynamic, and iterative process of using such indicators as management feedback allows us to view sustainability more accurately as a transition and journey, rather than a static destination to which management must arrive.

Effect of the initial domain on the dispersion dynamics of a diffusing substance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bestuzheva, A. N.; Smirnov, A. L.

2018-05-01

The formulation and analysis of ecological problems involves the mathematical modeling, when some assumptions concerning the nature of the processes are introduced. These assumptions must be justified. In the present paper the effect of the form of the initial domain occupied with a diffusing substance on the process of diffusion is studied. It's shown that the form of the initial domain plays unimportant role and it may be modeled as semi-sphere, for which the problem has analytical solution. That solution may serves as the zeroth approximation in modeling of actual ecological problem taking into account the relief of the bottom and the bottom currents.

Ecological invasion, roughened fronts, and a competitor's extreme advance: integrating stochastic spatial-growth models.

PubMed

O'Malley, Lauren; Korniss, G; Caraco, Thomas

2009-07-01

Both community ecology and conservation biology seek further understanding of factors governing the advance of an invasive species. We model biological invasion as an individual-based, stochastic process on a two-dimensional landscape. An ecologically superior invader and a resident species compete for space preemptively. Our general model includes the basic contact process and a variant of the Eden model as special cases. We employ the concept of a "roughened" front to quantify effects of discreteness and stochasticity on invasion; we emphasize the probability distribution of the front-runner's relative position. That is, we analyze the location of the most advanced invader as the extreme deviation about the front's mean position. We find that a class of models with different assumptions about neighborhood interactions exhibits universal characteristics. That is, key features of the invasion dynamics span a class of models, independently of locally detailed demographic rules. Our results integrate theories of invasive spatial growth and generate novel hypotheses linking habitat or landscape size (length of the invading front) to invasion velocity, and to the relative position of the most advanced invader.

Poverty, Disease, and the Ecology of Complex Systems

PubMed Central

Pluciński, Mateusz M.; Murray, Megan B.; Farmer, Paul E.; Barrett, Christopher B.; Keenan, Donald C.

2014-01-01

Understanding why some human populations remain persistently poor remains a significant challenge for both the social and natural sciences. The extremely poor are generally reliant on their immediate natural resource base for subsistence and suffer high rates of mortality due to parasitic and infectious diseases. Economists have developed a range of models to explain persistent poverty, often characterized as poverty traps, but these rarely account for complex biophysical processes. In this Essay, we argue that by coupling insights from ecology and economics, we can begin to model and understand the complex dynamics that underlie the generation and maintenance of poverty traps, which can then be used to inform analyses and possible intervention policies. To illustrate the utility of this approach, we present a simple coupled model of infectious diseases and economic growth, where poverty traps emerge from nonlinear relationships determined by the number of pathogens in the system. These nonlinearities are comparable to those often incorporated into poverty trap models in the economics literature, but, importantly, here the mechanism is anchored in core ecological principles. Coupled models of this sort could be usefully developed in many economically important biophysical systems—such as agriculture, fisheries, nutrition, and land use change—to serve as foundations for deeper explorations of how fundamental ecological processes influence structural poverty and economic development. PMID:24690902

Poverty, disease, and the ecology of complex systems.

PubMed

Ngonghala, Calistus N; Pluciński, Mateusz M; Murray, Megan B; Farmer, Paul E; Barrett, Christopher B; Keenan, Donald C; Bonds, Matthew H

2014-04-01

Understanding why some human populations remain persistently poor remains a significant challenge for both the social and natural sciences. The extremely poor are generally reliant on their immediate natural resource base for subsistence and suffer high rates of mortality due to parasitic and infectious diseases. Economists have developed a range of models to explain persistent poverty, often characterized as poverty traps, but these rarely account for complex biophysical processes. In this Essay, we argue that by coupling insights from ecology and economics, we can begin to model and understand the complex dynamics that underlie the generation and maintenance of poverty traps, which can then be used to inform analyses and possible intervention policies. To illustrate the utility of this approach, we present a simple coupled model of infectious diseases and economic growth, where poverty traps emerge from nonlinear relationships determined by the number of pathogens in the system. These nonlinearities are comparable to those often incorporated into poverty trap models in the economics literature, but, importantly, here the mechanism is anchored in core ecological principles. Coupled models of this sort could be usefully developed in many economically important biophysical systems--such as agriculture, fisheries, nutrition, and land use change--to serve as foundations for deeper explorations of how fundamental ecological processes influence structural poverty and economic development.

Challenges and a checklist for biodiversity conservation in fire-prone forests: perspecitves from the Pacific Northwest of USA and Southeastern Australia

Treesearch

Thomas A. Spies; David B. Lindenmayer; A. Malcolm Gill; Scott L. Stephens; James K. Agee

2012-01-01

Conserving biodiversity in fire-prone forest ecosystems is challenging for several reasons including differing and incomplete conceptual models of fire-related ecological processes, major gaps in ecological and management knowledge, high variability in fire behavior and ecological responses to fires, altered fire regimes as a result of land-use history and climate...

The Sphagnome Project: enabling ecological and evolutionary insights through a genus-level sequencing project

DOE PAGES

Weston, David J.; Turetsky, Merritt R.; Johnson, Matthew G.; ...

2017-10-27

Considerable progress has been made in ecological and evolutionary genetics with studies demonstrating how genes underlying plant and microbial traits can influence adaptation and even ‘extend’ to influence community structure and ecosystem level processes. The progress in this area is limited to model systems with deep genetic and genomic resources that often have negligible ecological impact or interest. Therefore, important linkages between genetic adaptations and their consequences at organismal and ecological scales are often lacking. We introduce the Sphagnome Project, which incorporates genomics into a long-running history of Sphagnum research that has documented unparalleled contributions to peatland ecology, carbon sequestration,more » biogeochemistry, microbiome research, niche construction, and ecosystem engineering. The Sphagnome Project encompasses a genus-level sequencing effort that represents a new type of model system driven not only by genetic tractability, but by ecologically relevant questions and hypotheses.« less

The Sphagnome Project: enabling ecological and evolutionary insights through a genus-level sequencing project

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Weston, David J.; Turetsky, Merritt R.; Johnson, Matthew G.

Considerable progress has been made in ecological and evolutionary genetics with studies demonstrating how genes underlying plant and microbial traits can influence adaptation and even ‘extend’ to influence community structure and ecosystem level processes. The progress in this area is limited to model systems with deep genetic and genomic resources that often have negligible ecological impact or interest. Therefore, important linkages between genetic adaptations and their consequences at organismal and ecological scales are often lacking. We introduce the Sphagnome Project, which incorporates genomics into a long-running history of Sphagnum research that has documented unparalleled contributions to peatland ecology, carbon sequestration,more » biogeochemistry, microbiome research, niche construction, and ecosystem engineering. The Sphagnome Project encompasses a genus-level sequencing effort that represents a new type of model system driven not only by genetic tractability, but by ecologically relevant questions and hypotheses.« less

The Sphagnome Project: enabling ecological and evolutionary insights through a genus-level sequencing project.

PubMed

Weston, David J; Turetsky, Merritt R; Johnson, Matthew G; Granath, Gustaf; Lindo, Zoë; Belyea, Lisa R; Rice, Steven K; Hanson, David T; Engelhardt, Katharina A M; Schmutz, Jeremy; Dorrepaal, Ellen; Euskirchen, Eugénie S; Stenøien, Hans K; Szövényi, Péter; Jackson, Michelle; Piatkowski, Bryan T; Muchero, Wellington; Norby, Richard J; Kostka, Joel E; Glass, Jennifer B; Rydin, Håkan; Limpens, Juul; Tuittila, Eeva-Stiina; Ullrich, Kristian K; Carrell, Alyssa; Benscoter, Brian W; Chen, Jin-Gui; Oke, Tobi A; Nilsson, Mats B; Ranjan, Priya; Jacobson, Daniel; Lilleskov, Erik A; Clymo, R S; Shaw, A Jonathan

2018-01-01

Considerable progress has been made in ecological and evolutionary genetics with studies demonstrating how genes underlying plant and microbial traits can influence adaptation and even 'extend' to influence community structure and ecosystem level processes. Progress in this area is limited to model systems with deep genetic and genomic resources that often have negligible ecological impact or interest. Thus, important linkages between genetic adaptations and their consequences at organismal and ecological scales are often lacking. Here we introduce the Sphagnome Project, which incorporates genomics into a long-running history of Sphagnum research that has documented unparalleled contributions to peatland ecology, carbon sequestration, biogeochemistry, microbiome research, niche construction, and ecosystem engineering. The Sphagnome Project encompasses a genus-level sequencing effort that represents a new type of model system driven not only by genetic tractability, but by ecologically relevant questions and hypotheses. © 2017 UT-Battelle New Phytologist © 2017 New Phytologist Trust.

A gentle introduction to quantile regression for ecologists

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cade, B.S.; Noon, B.R.

2003-01-01

Quantile regression is a way to estimate the conditional quantiles of a response variable distribution in the linear model that provides a more complete view of possible causal relationships between variables in ecological processes. Typically, all the factors that affect ecological processes are not measured and included in the statistical models used to investigate relationships between variables associated with those processes. As a consequence, there may be a weak or no predictive relationship between the mean of the response variable (y) distribution and the measured predictive factors (X). Yet there may be stronger, useful predictive relationships with other parts of the response variable distribution. This primer relates quantile regression estimates to prediction intervals in parametric error distribution regression models (eg least squares), and discusses the ordering characteristics, interval nature, sampling variation, weighting, and interpretation of the estimates for homogeneous and heterogeneous regression models.

Prediction of biodiversity hotspots in the Anthropocene: The case of veteran oaks.

PubMed

Skarpaas, Olav; Blumentrath, Stefan; Evju, Marianne; Sverdrup-Thygeson, Anne

2017-10-01

Over the past centuries, humans have transformed large parts of the biosphere, and there is a growing need to understand and predict the distribution of biodiversity hotspots influenced by the presence of humans. Our basic hypothesis is that human influence in the Anthropocene is ubiquitous, and we predict that biodiversity hot spot modeling can be improved by addressing three challenges raised by the increasing ecological influence of humans: (i) anthropogenically modified responses to individual ecological factors, (ii) fundamentally different processes and predictors in landscape types shaped by different land use histories and (iii) a multitude and complexity of natural and anthropogenic processes that may require many predictors and even multiple models in different landscape types. We modeled the occurrence of veteran oaks in Norway, and found, in accordance with our basic hypothesis and predictions, that humans influence the distribution of veteran oaks throughout its range, but in different ways in forests and open landscapes. In forests, geographical and topographic variables related to the oak niche are still important, but the occurrence of veteran oaks is shifted toward steeper slopes, where logging is difficult. In open landscapes, land cover variables are more important, and veteran oaks are more common toward the north than expected from the fundamental oak niche. In both landscape types, multiple predictor variables representing ecological and human-influenced processes were needed to build a good model, and several models performed almost equally well. Models accounting for the different anthropogenic influences on landscape structure and processes consistently performed better than models based exclusively on natural biogeographical and ecological predictors. Thus, our results for veteran oaks clearly illustrate the challenges to distribution modeling raised by the ubiquitous influence of humans, even in a moderately populated region, but also show that predictions can be improved by explicitly addressing these anthropogenic complexities.

When relationships estimated in the past cannot be used to predict the future: using mechanistic models to predict landscape ecological dynamics in a changing world

Treesearch

Eric J. Gustafson

2013-01-01

Researchers and natural resource managers need predictions of how multiple global changes (e.g., climate change, rising levels of air pollutants, exotic invasions) will affect landscape composition and ecosystem function. Ecological predictive models used for this purpose are constructed using either a mechanistic (process-based) or a phenomenological (empirical)...

The Spatial-Temporal Analysis of Ecological Environment of Red Bed Hills in East Sichuan - Taking LU County as a Case

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, H.; Liu, Y.; Wang, X.; Liu, J.

2018-04-01

Good ecological environment is the foundation of human existence and development, the development of society and economy must be based on the premise of maintaining the stability and balance of the ecological environment. RS and GIS technology are used in this paper while the red-bed hills of Sichuan Province-Lu County have been taken as an example. According to the ecological environment characteristics of the study areas and the principle of choosing evaluation index, this paper selected six evaluation indicators (elevation, slope, aspect, vegetation cover, land use, gully density) to establish evaluation index system of ecological environment of Lu County. This paper determine the weight of each evaluation index by AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) and establishes a comprehensive evaluation model by the weighted comprehensive evaluation method. This model is used to divide the ecological environment quality of Lu County into excellent, good, middle, poor and worse, and to analyze the ecological environment change in Lu County in recent ten years.

Food-chain contamination evaluations in ecological risk assessments

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Linder, G.

Food-chain models have become increasingly important within the ecological risk assessment process. This is the case particularly when acute effects are not readily apparent, or the contaminants of concern are not readily detoxified, have a high likelihood for partitioning into lipids, or have specific target organs or tissues that may increase their significance in evaluating their potential adverse effects. An overview of food-chain models -- conceptual, theoretical, and empirical -- will be considered through a series of papers that will focus on their application within the ecological risk assessment process. Whether a food-chain evaluation is being developed to address relativelymore » simple questions related to chronic effects of toxicants on target populations, or whether a more complex food-web model is being developed to address questions related to multiple-trophic level transfers of toxicants, the elements within the food chain contamination evaluation can be generalized to address the mechanisms of toxicant accumulation in individual organisms. This can then be incorporated into more elaborate models that consider these organismal-level processes within the context of a species life-history or community-level responses that may be associated with long-term exposures.« less

Development of the Hydrological-Ecological Integrated watershed Flow Model (HEIFLOW): an application to the Heihe River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tian, Y.; Zheng, Y.; Zheng, C.; Han, F., Sr.

2017-12-01

Physically based and fully-distributed integrated hydrological models (IHMs) can quantitatively depict hydrological processes, both surface and subsurface, with sufficient spatial and temporal details. However, the complexity involved in pre-processing data and setting up models seriously hindered the wider application of IHMs in scientific research and management practice. This study introduces our design and development of Visual HEIFLOW, hereafter referred to as VHF, a comprehensive graphical data processing and modeling system for integrated hydrological simulation. The current version of VHF has been structured to accommodate an IHM named HEIFLOW (Hydrological-Ecological Integrated watershed-scale FLOW model). HEIFLOW is a model being developed by the authors, which has all typical elements of physically based and fully-distributed IHMs. It is based on GSFLOW, a representative integrated surface water-groundwater model developed by USGS. HEIFLOW provides several ecological modules that enable to simulate growth cycle of general vegetation and special plants (maize and populus euphratica). VHF incorporates and streamlines all key steps of the integrated modeling, and accommodates all types of GIS data necessary to hydrological simulation. It provides a GIS-based data processing framework to prepare an IHM for simulations, and has functionalities to flexibly display and modify model features (e.g., model grids, streams, boundary conditions, observational sites, etc.) and their associated data. It enables visualization and various spatio-temporal analyses of all model inputs and outputs at different scales (i.e., computing unit, sub-basin, basin, or user-defined spatial extent). The above system features, as well as many others, can significantly reduce the difficulty and time cost of building and using a complex IHM. The case study in the Heihe River Basin demonstrated the applicability of VHF for large scale integrated SW-GW modeling. Visualization and spatial-temporal analysis of the modeling results by HEIFLOW greatly facilitates our understanding on the complicated hydrologic cycle and relationship among the hydrological and ecological variables in the study area, and provides insights into the regional water resources management.

Integration of research infrastructures and ecosystem models toward development of predictive ecology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luo, Y.; Huang, Y.; Jiang, J.; MA, S.; Saruta, V.; Liang, G.; Hanson, P. J.; Ricciuto, D. M.; Milcu, A.; Roy, J.

2017-12-01

The past two decades have witnessed rapid development in sensor technology. Built upon the sensor development, large research infrastructure facilities, such as National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) and FLUXNET, have been established. Through networking different kinds of sensors and other data collections at many locations all over the world, those facilities generate large volumes of ecological data every day. The big data from those facilities offer an unprecedented opportunity for advancing our understanding of ecological processes, educating teachers and students, supporting decision-making, and testing ecological theory. The big data from the major research infrastructure facilities also provides foundation for developing predictive ecology. Indeed, the capability to predict future changes in our living environment and natural resources is critical to decision making in a world where the past is no longer a clear guide to the future. We are living in a period marked by rapid climate change, profound alteration of biogeochemical cycles, unsustainable depletion of natural resources, and deterioration of air and water quality. Projecting changes in future ecosystem services to the society becomes essential not only for science but also for policy making. We will use this panel format to outline major opportunities and challenges in integrating research infrastructure and ecosystem models toward developing predictive ecology. Meanwhile, we will also show results from an interactive model-experiment System - Ecological Platform for Assimilating Data into models (EcoPAD) - that have been implemented at the Spruce and Peatland Responses Under Climatic and Environmental change (SPRUCE) experiment in Northern Minnesota and Montpellier Ecotron, France. EcoPAD is developed by integrating web technology, eco-informatics, data assimilation techniques, and ecosystem modeling. EcoPAD is designed to streamline data transfer seamlessly from research infrastructure facilities to model simulation, data assimilation, and ecological forecasting.

Effects of season on ecological processes in extensive earthen tilapia ponds in Southeastern Brazil.

PubMed

Favaro, E G P; Sipaúba-Tavares, L H; Milstein, A

2015-11-01

In Southeastern Brazil tilapia culture is conducted in extensive and semi-intensive flow-through earthen ponds, being water availability and flow management different in the rainy and dry seasons. In this region lettuce wastes are a potential cheap input for tilapia culture. This study examined the ecological processes developing during the rainy and dry seasons in three extensive flow-through earthen tilapia ponds fertilized with lettuce wastes. Water quality, plankton and sediment parameters were sampled monthly during a year. Factor analysis was used to identify the ecological processes occurring within the ponds and to construct a conceptual graphic model of the pond ecosystem functioning during the rainy and dry seasons. Processes related to nitrogen cycling presented differences between both seasons while processes related to phosphorus cycling did not. Ecological differences among ponds were due to effects of wind protection by surrounding vegetation, organic loading entering, tilapia density and its grazing pressure on zooplankton. Differences in tilapia growth among ponds were related to stocking density and ecological process affecting tilapia food availability and intraspecific competition. Lettuce wastes addition into the ponds did not produce negative effects, thus this practice may be considered a disposal option and a low-cost input source for tilapia, at least at the amounts applied in this study.

Tinnitus What and Where: An Ecological Framework

PubMed Central

Searchfield, Grant D.

2014-01-01

Tinnitus is an interaction of the environment, cognition, and plasticity. The connection between the individual with tinnitus and their world seldom receives attention in neurophysiological research. As well as changes in cell excitability, an individual’s culture and beliefs, and work and social environs may all influence how tinnitus is perceived. In this review, an ecological framework for current neurophysiological evidence is considered. The model defines tinnitus as the perception of an auditory object in the absence of an acoustic event. It is hypothesized that following deafferentation: adaptive feature extraction, schema, and semantic object formation processes lead to tinnitus in a manner predicted by Adaptation Level Theory (1, 2). Evidence from physiological studies is compared to the tenants of the proposed ecological model. The consideration of diverse events within an ecological context may unite seemingly disparate neurophysiological models. PMID:25566177

Multivariate Models of Adult Pacific Salmon Returns

PubMed Central

Burke, Brian J.; Peterson, William T.; Beckman, Brian R.; Morgan, Cheryl; Daly, Elizabeth A.; Litz, Marisa

2013-01-01

Most modeling and statistical approaches encourage simplicity, yet ecological processes are often complex, as they are influenced by numerous dynamic environmental and biological factors. Pacific salmon abundance has been highly variable over the last few decades and most forecasting models have proven inadequate, primarily because of a lack of understanding of the processes affecting variability in survival. Better methods and data for predicting the abundance of returning adults are therefore required to effectively manage the species. We combined 31 distinct indicators of the marine environment collected over an 11-year period into a multivariate analysis to summarize and predict adult spring Chinook salmon returns to the Columbia River in 2012. In addition to forecasts, this tool quantifies the strength of the relationship between various ecological indicators and salmon returns, allowing interpretation of ecosystem processes. The relative importance of indicators varied, but a few trends emerged. Adult returns of spring Chinook salmon were best described using indicators of bottom-up ecological processes such as composition and abundance of zooplankton and fish prey as well as measures of individual fish, such as growth and condition. Local indicators of temperature or coastal upwelling did not contribute as much as large-scale indicators of temperature variability, matching the spatial scale over which salmon spend the majority of their ocean residence. Results suggest that effective management of Pacific salmon requires multiple types of data and that no single indicator can represent the complex early-ocean ecology of salmon. PMID:23326586

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

R. L. VanHorn; N. L. Hampton; R. C. Morris

This document presents reference material for conducting screening level ecological risk assessments (SLERAs)for the waste area groups (WAGs) at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory. Included in this document are discussions of the objectives of and processes for conducting SLERAs. The Environmental Protection Agency ecological risk assessment framework is closely followed. Guidance for site characterization, stressor characterization, ecological effects, pathways of contaminant migration, the conceptual site model, assessment endpoints, measurement endpoints, analysis guidance, and risk characterization are included.

Biological soil crusts (biocrusts) as a model system in community, landscape and ecosystem ecology

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bowker, Matthew A.; Maestre, Fernando T.; Eldridge, David; Belnap, Jayne; Castillo-Monroy, Andrea; Escolar, Cristina; Soliveres, Santiago

2014-01-01

Model systems have had a profound influence on the development of ecological theory and general principles. Compared to alternatives, the most effective models share some combination of the following characteristics: simpler, smaller, faster, general, idiosyncratic or manipulable. We argue that biological soil crusts (biocrusts) have unique combinations of these features that should be more widely exploited in community, landscape and ecosystem ecology. In community ecology, biocrusts are elucidating the importance of biodiversity and spatial pattern for maintaining ecosystem multifunctionality due to their manipulability in experiments. Due to idiosyncrasies in their modes of facilitation and competition, biocrusts have led to new models on the interplay between environmental stress and biotic interactions and on the maintenance of biodiversity by competitive processes. Biocrusts are perhaps one of the best examples of micro-landscapes—real landscapes that are small in size. Although they exhibit varying patch heterogeneity, aggregation, connectivity and fragmentation, like macro-landscapes, they are also compatible with well-replicated experiments (unlike macro-landscapes). In ecosystem ecology, a number of studies are imposing small-scale, low cost manipulations of global change or state factors in biocrust micro-landscapes. The versatility of biocrusts to inform such disparate lines of inquiry suggests that they are an especially useful model system that can enable researchers to see ecological principles more clearly and quickly.

Modeling hydrodynamics, water quality, and benthic processes to predict ecological effects in Narragansett Bay

EPA Science Inventory

The environmental fluid dynamics code (EFDC) was used to study the three dimensional (3D) circulation, water quality, and ecology in Narragansett Bay, RI. Predictions of the Bay hydrodynamics included the behavior of the water surface elevation, currents, salinity, and temperatur...

Simulating water quality and ecological status of Lake Vansjø, Norway, under land-use and climate change by linking process-oriented models with a Bayesian network.

PubMed

Couture, Raoul-Marie; Moe, S Jannicke; Lin, Yan; Kaste, Øyvind; Haande, Sigrid; Lyche Solheim, Anne

2018-04-15

Excess nutrient inputs and climate change are two of multiple stressors affecting many lakes worldwide. Lake Vansjø in southern Norway is one such eutrophic lake impacted by blooms of toxic blue-green algae (cyanobacteria), and classified as moderate ecological status under the EU Water Framework Directive. Future climate change may exacerbate the situation. Here we use a set of chained models (global climate model, hydrological model, catchment phosphorus (P) model, lake model, Bayesian Network) to assess the possible future ecological status of the lake, given the set of climate scenarios and storylines common to the EU project MARS (Managing Aquatic Ecosystems and Water Resources under Multiple Stress). The model simulations indicate that climate change alone will increase precipitation and runoff, and give higher P fluxes to the lake, but cause little increase in phytoplankton biomass or changes in ecological status. For the storylines of future management and land-use, however, the model results indicate that both the phytoplankton biomass and the lake ecological status can be positively or negatively affected. Our results also show the value in predicting a biological indicator of lake ecological status, in this case, cyanobacteria biomass with a BN model. For all scenarios, cyanobacteria contribute to worsening the status assessed by phytoplankton, compared to using chlorophyll-a alone. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Dispersal constraints for stream invertebrates: setting realistic timescales for biodiversity restoration.

PubMed

Parkyn, Stephanie M; Smith, Brian J

2011-09-01

Biodiversity goals are becoming increasingly important in stream restoration. Typical models of stream restoration are based on the assumption that if habitat is restored then species will return and ecological processes will re-establish. However, a range of constraints at different scales can affect restoration success. Much of the research in stream restoration ecology has focused on habitat constraints, namely the in-stream and riparian conditions required to restore biota. Dispersal constraints are also integral to determining the timescales, trajectory and potential endpoints of a restored ecosystem. Dispersal is both a means of organism recolonization of restored sites and a vital ecological process that maintains viable populations. We review knowledge of dispersal pathways and explore the factors influencing stream invertebrate dispersal. From empirical and modeling studies of restoration in warm-temperate zones of New Zealand, we make predictions about the timescales of stream ecological restoration under differing levels of dispersal constraints. This process of constraints identification and timescale prediction is proposed as a practical step for resource managers to prioritize and appropriately monitor restoration sites and highlights that in some instances, natural recolonization and achievement of biodiversity goals may not occur.

Dispersal Constraints for Stream Invertebrates: Setting Realistic Timescales for Biodiversity Restoration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parkyn, Stephanie M.; Smith, Brian J.

2011-09-01

Biodiversity goals are becoming increasingly important in stream restoration. Typical models of stream restoration are based on the assumption that if habitat is restored then species will return and ecological processes will re-establish. However, a range of constraints at different scales can affect restoration success. Much of the research in stream restoration ecology has focused on habitat constraints, namely the in-stream and riparian conditions required to restore biota. Dispersal constraints are also integral to determining the timescales, trajectory and potential endpoints of a restored ecosystem. Dispersal is both a means of organism recolonization of restored sites and a vital ecological process that maintains viable populations. We review knowledge of dispersal pathways and explore the factors influencing stream invertebrate dispersal. From empirical and modeling studies of restoration in warm-temperate zones of New Zealand, we make predictions about the timescales of stream ecological restoration under differing levels of dispersal constraints. This process of constraints identification and timescale prediction is proposed as a practical step for resource managers to prioritize and appropriately monitor restoration sites and highlights that in some instances, natural recolonization and achievement of biodiversity goals may not occur.

Climate and dengue transmission: evidence and implications.

PubMed

Morin, Cory W; Comrie, Andrew C; Ernst, Kacey

2013-01-01

Climate influences dengue ecology by affecting vector dynamics, agent development, and mosquito/human interactions. Although these relationships are known, the impact climate change will have on transmission is unclear. Climate-driven statistical and process-based models are being used to refine our knowledge of these relationships and predict the effects of projected climate change on dengue fever occurrence, but results have been inconsistent. We sought to identify major climatic influences on dengue virus ecology and to evaluate the ability of climate-based dengue models to describe associations between climate and dengue, simulate outbreaks, and project the impacts of climate change. We reviewed the evidence for direct and indirect relationships between climate and dengue generated from laboratory studies, field studies, and statistical analyses of associations between vectors, dengue fever incidence, and climate conditions. We assessed the potential contribution of climate-driven, process-based dengue models and provide suggestions to improve their performance. Relationships between climate variables and factors that influence dengue transmission are complex. A climate variable may increase dengue transmission potential through one aspect of the system while simultaneously decreasing transmission potential through another. This complexity may at least partly explain inconsistencies in statistical associations between dengue and climate. Process-based models can account for the complex dynamics but often omit important aspects of dengue ecology, notably virus development and host-species interactions. Synthesizing and applying current knowledge of climatic effects on all aspects of dengue virus ecology will help direct future research and enable better projections of climate change effects on dengue incidence.

Development of a generic auto-calibration package for regional ecological modeling and application in the Central Plains of the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wu, Yiping; Liu, Shuguang; Li, Zhengpeng; Dahal, Devendra; Young, Claudia J.; Schmidt, Gail L.; Liu, Jinxun; Davis, Brian; Sohl, Terry L.; Werner, Jeremy M.; Oeding, Jennifer

2014-01-01

Process-oriented ecological models are frequently used for predicting potential impacts of global changes such as climate and land-cover changes, which can be useful for policy making. It is critical but challenging to automatically derive optimal parameter values at different scales, especially at regional scale, and validate the model performance. In this study, we developed an automatic calibration (auto-calibration) function for a well-established biogeochemical model—the General Ensemble Biogeochemical Modeling System (GEMS)-Erosion Deposition Carbon Model (EDCM)—using data assimilation technique: the Shuffled Complex Evolution algorithm and a model-inversion R package—Flexible Modeling Environment (FME). The new functionality can support multi-parameter and multi-objective auto-calibration of EDCM at the both pixel and regional levels. We also developed a post-processing procedure for GEMS to provide options to save the pixel-based or aggregated county-land cover specific parameter values for subsequent simulations. In our case study, we successfully applied the updated model (EDCM-Auto) for a single crop pixel with a corn–wheat rotation and a large ecological region (Level II)—Central USA Plains. The evaluation results indicate that EDCM-Auto is applicable at multiple scales and is capable to handle land cover changes (e.g., crop rotations). The model also performs well in capturing the spatial pattern of grain yield production for crops and net primary production (NPP) for other ecosystems across the region, which is a good example for implementing calibration and validation of ecological models with readily available survey data (grain yield) and remote sensing data (NPP) at regional and national levels. The developed platform for auto-calibration can be readily expanded to incorporate other model inversion algorithms and potential R packages, and also be applied to other ecological models.

Numerical models of salt marsh evolution: ecological, geomorphic, and climatic factors

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fagherazzi, Sergio; Kirwan, Matthew L.; Mudd, Simon M.; Guntenspergen, Glenn R.; Temmerman, Stijn; D'Alpaos, Andrea; van de Koppel, Johan; Rybczyk, John; Reyes, Enrique; Craft, Chris; Clough, Jonathan

2012-01-01

Salt marshes are delicate landforms at the boundary between the sea and land. These ecosystems support a diverse biota that modifies the erosive characteristics of the substrate and mediates sediment transport processes. Here we present a broad overview of recent numerical models that quantify the formation and evolution of salt marshes under different physical and ecological drivers. In particular, we focus on the coupling between geomorphological and ecological processes and on how these feedbacks are included in predictive models of landform evolution. We describe in detail models that simulate fluxes of water, organic matter, and sediments in salt marshes. The interplay between biological and morphological processes often produces a distinct scarp between salt marshes and tidal flats. Numerical models can capture the dynamics of this boundary and the progradation or regression of the marsh in time. Tidal channels are also key features of the marsh landscape, flooding and draining the marsh platform and providing a source of sediments and nutrients to the marsh ecosystem. In recent years, several numerical models have been developed to describe the morphogenesis and long-term dynamics of salt marsh channels. Finally, salt marshes are highly sensitive to the effects of long-term climatic change. We therefore discuss in detail how numerical models have been used to determine salt marsh survival under different scenarios of sea level rise.

Numerical models of salt marsh evolution: Ecological, geomorphic, and climatic factors

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fagherazzi, S.; Kirwan, M.L.; Mudd, S.M.; Guntenspergen, G.R.; Temmerman, S.; D'Alpaos, A.; Van De Koppel, J.; Rybczyk, J.M.; Reyes, E.; Craft, C.; Clough, J.

2012-01-01

Salt marshes are delicate landforms at the boundary between the sea and land. These ecosystems support a diverse biota that modifies the erosive characteristics of the substrate and mediates sediment transport processes. Here we present a broad overview of recent numerical models that quantify the formation and evolution of salt marshes under different physical and ecological drivers. In particular, we focus on the coupling between geomorphological and ecological processes and on how these feedbacks are included in predictive models of landform evolution. We describe in detail models that simulate fluxes of water, organic matter, and sediments in salt marshes. The interplay between biological and morphological processes often produces a distinct scarp between salt marshes and tidal flats. Numerical models can capture the dynamics of this boundary and the progradation or regression of the marsh in time. Tidal channels are also key features of the marsh landscape, flooding and draining the marsh platform and providing a source of sediments and nutrients to the marsh ecosystem. In recent years, several numerical models have been developed to describe the morphogenesis and long-term dynamics of salt marsh channels. Finally, salt marshes are highly sensitive to the effects of long-term climatic change. We therefore discuss in detail how numerical models have been used to determine salt marsh survival under different scenarios of sea level rise. Copyright 2012 by the American Geophysical Union.

Pattern-oriented modelling: a ‘multi-scope’ for predictive systems ecology

PubMed Central

Grimm, Volker; Railsback, Steven F.

2012-01-01

Modern ecology recognizes that modelling systems across scales and at multiple levels—especially to link population and ecosystem dynamics to individual adaptive behaviour—is essential for making the science predictive. ‘Pattern-oriented modelling’ (POM) is a strategy for doing just this. POM is the multi-criteria design, selection and calibration of models of complex systems. POM starts with identifying a set of patterns observed at multiple scales and levels that characterize a system with respect to the particular problem being modelled; a model from which the patterns emerge should contain the right mechanisms to address the problem. These patterns are then used to (i) determine what scales, entities, variables and processes the model needs, (ii) test and select submodels to represent key low-level processes such as adaptive behaviour, and (iii) find useful parameter values during calibration. Patterns are already often used in these ways, but a mini-review of applications of POM confirms that making the selection and use of patterns more explicit and rigorous can facilitate the development of models with the right level of complexity to understand ecological systems and predict their response to novel conditions. PMID:22144392

Proceedings of the Agent 2002 Conference on Social Agents : Ecology, Exchange, and Evolution

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Macal, C., ed.; Sallach, D., ed.

2003-04-10

Welcome to the ''Proceedings'' of the third in a series of agent simulation conferences cosponsored by Argonne National Laboratory and The University of Chicago. The theme of this year's conference, ''Social Agents: Ecology, Exchange and Evolution'', was selected to foster the exchange of ideas on some of the most important social processes addressed by agent simulation models, namely: (1) The translation of ecology and ecological constraints into social dynamics; (2) The role of exchange processes, including the peer dependencies they create; and (3) The dynamics by which, and the attractor states toward which, social processes evolve. As stated in themore » ''Call for Papers'', throughout the social sciences, the simulation of social agents has emerged as an innovative and powerful research methodology. The promise of this approach, however, is accompanied by many challenges. First, modeling complexity in agents, environments, and interactions is non-trivial, and these representations must be explored and assessed systematically. Second, strategies used to represent complexities are differentially applicable to any particular problem space. Finally, to achieve sufficient generality, the design and experimentation inherent in agent simulation must be coupled with social and behavioral theory. Agent 2002 provides a forum for reviewing the current state of agent simulation scholarship, including research designed to address such outstanding issues. This year's conference introduces an extensive range of domains, models, and issues--from pre-literacy to future projections, from ecology to oligopolistic markets, and from design to validation. Four invited speakers highlighted major themes emerging from social agent simulation.« less

Measuring Children's Environmental Attitudes and Values in Northwest Mexico: Validating a Modified Version of Measures to Test the Model of Ecological Values (2-MEV)

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schneller, A. J.; Johnson, B.; Bogner, F. X.

2015-01-01

This paper describes the validation process of measuring children's attitudes and values toward the environment within a Mexican sample. We applied the Model of Ecological Values (2-MEV), which has been shown to be valid and reliable in 20 countries, including one Spanish speaking culture. Items were initially modified to fit the regional dialect,…

75 years of dryland science: Trends and gaps in arid ecology literature.

PubMed

Greenville, Aaron C; Dickman, Chris R; Wardle, Glenda M

2017-01-01

Growth in the publication of scientific articles is occurring at an exponential rate, prompting a growing need to synthesise information in a timely manner to combat urgent environmental problems and guide future research. Here, we undertake a topic analysis of dryland literature over the last 75 years (8218 articles) to identify areas in arid ecology that are well studied and topics that are emerging. Four topics-wetlands, mammal ecology, litter decomposition and spatial modelling, were identified as 'hot topics' that showed higher than average growth in publications from 1940 to 2015. Five topics-remote sensing, climate, habitat and spatial, agriculture and soils-microbes, were identified as 'cold topics', with lower than average growth over the survey period, but higher than average numbers of publications. Topics in arid ecology clustered into seven broad groups on word-based similarity. These groups ranged from mammal ecology and population genetics, broad-scale management and ecosystem modelling, plant ecology, agriculture and ecophysiology, to populations and paleoclimate. These patterns may reflect trends in the field of ecology more broadly. We also identified two broad research gaps in arid ecology: population genetics, and habitat and spatial research. Collaborations between population genetics and ecologists and investigations of ecological processes across spatial scales would contribute profitably to the advancement of arid ecology and to ecology more broadly.

Research recommendations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1979-01-01

The research and development sequences and priorities for CELSS development were established for each of the following areas: nutrition and food processing, food production, waste processing, systems engineering/modeling, and ecology-systems safety.

Situations, Interaction, Process and Affordances: An Ecological Psychology Perspective.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Young, Michael F.; DePalma, Andrew; Garrett, Steven

2002-01-01

From an ecological psychology perspective, a full analysis of any learning context must acknowledge the complex nonlinear dynamics that unfold as an intentionally-driven learner interacts with a technology-based purposefully designed learning environment. A full situation model would need to incorporate constraints from the environment and also…

Exploring the origins of ecological forestry in North America

Treesearch

Anthony W. ​D' Amato; Brian J. Palik; Jerry F. Franklin; David R. Foster

2016-01-01

The use of ecological forestry to achieve management objectives, such as the maintenance of native biodiversity, has become increasingly common on public and private ownerships in North America. These approaches generally use natural disturbance processes and their structural and compositional outcomes as models for designing silvicultural prescriptions that restore or...

Using LANDIS II to study the effects of global change in Siberia

Treesearch

Eric J. Gustafson; Brian R. Sturtevant; Anatoly Z. Shvidenko; Robert M. Scheller

2010-01-01

Landscape dynamics are characterized by complex interactions among multiple disturbance regimes, anthropogenic use and management, and the mosaic of diverse ecological conditions. LANDIS-IT is a landscape forest succession and disturbance model that independently simulates multiple ecological and disturbance processes, accounting for complex interactions to predict...

A methodology for eliciting, representing, and analysing stakeholder knowledge for decision making on complex socio-ecological systems: from cognitive maps to agent-based models.

PubMed

Elsawah, Sondoss; Guillaume, Joseph H A; Filatova, Tatiana; Rook, Josefine; Jakeman, Anthony J

2015-03-15

This paper aims to contribute to developing better ways for incorporating essential human elements in decision making processes for modelling of complex socio-ecological systems. It presents a step-wise methodology for integrating perceptions of stakeholders (qualitative) into formal simulation models (quantitative) with the ultimate goal of improving understanding and communication about decision making in complex socio-ecological systems. The methodology integrates cognitive mapping and agent based modelling. It cascades through a sequence of qualitative/soft and numerical methods comprising: (1) Interviews to elicit mental models; (2) Cognitive maps to represent and analyse individual and group mental models; (3) Time-sequence diagrams to chronologically structure the decision making process; (4) All-encompassing conceptual model of decision making, and (5) computational (in this case agent-based) Model. We apply the proposed methodology (labelled ICTAM) in a case study of viticulture irrigation in South Australia. Finally, we use strengths-weakness-opportunities-threats (SWOT) analysis to reflect on the methodology. Results show that the methodology leverages the use of cognitive mapping to capture the richness of decision making and mental models, and provides a combination of divergent and convergent analysis methods leading to the construction of an Agent Based Model. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Social-ecological outcomes in recreational fisheries: The interaction of lakeshore development and stocking

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ziegler, Jacob P.; Golebie, Elizabeth J.; Jones, Stuart E.; Weidel, Brian C.; Solomon, Christopher T.

2017-01-01

Many ecosystems continue to experience rapid transformations due to processes like land use change and resource extraction. A systems approach to maintaining natural resources focuses on how interactions and feedbacks among components of complex social‐ecological systems generate social and ecological outcomes. In recreational fisheries, residential shoreline development and fish stocking are two widespread human behaviors that influence fisheries, yet emergent social‐ecological outcomes from these potentially interacting behaviors remain under explored. We applied a social‐ecological systems framework using a simulation model and empirical data to determine whether lakeshore development is likely to promote stocking through its adverse effects on coarse woody habitat and thereby also on survival of juvenile and adult fish. We demonstrate that high lakeshore development is likely to generate dependency of the ecosystem on the social system, in the form of stocking. Further, lakeshore development can interact with social‐ecological processes to create deficits for state‐level governments, which threatens the ability to fund further ecosystem subsidies. Our results highlight the value of a social‐ecological framework for maintaining ecosystem services like recreational fisheries.

Interaction between Digestive Strategy and Niche Specialization Predicts Speciation Rates across Herbivorous Mammals.

PubMed

Tran, Lucy A P

2016-04-01

Biotic and abiotic factors often are treated as mutually exclusive drivers of diversification processes. In this framework, ecological specialists are expected to have higher speciation rates than generalists if abiotic factors are the primary controls on species diversity but lower rates if biotic interactions are more important. Speciation rate is therefore predicted to positively correlate with ecological specialization in the purely abiotic model but negatively correlate in the biotic model. In this study, I show that the positive relationship between ecological specialization and speciation expected from the purely abiotic model is recovered only when a species-specific trait, digestive strategy, is modeled in the terrestrial, herbivorous mammals (Mammalia). This result suggests a more nuanced model in which the response of specialized lineages to abiotic factors is dependent on a biological trait. I also demonstrate that the effect of digestive strategy on the ecological specialization-speciation rate relationship is not due to a difference in either the degree of ecological specialization or the speciation rate between foregut- and hindgut-fermenting mammals. Together, these findings suggest that a biological trait, alongside historical abiotic events, played an important role in shaping mammal speciation at long temporal and large geographic scales.

A brief introduction to mixed effects modelling and multi-model inference in ecology

PubMed Central

Donaldson, Lynda; Correa-Cano, Maria Eugenia; Goodwin, Cecily E.D.

2018-01-01

The use of linear mixed effects models (LMMs) is increasingly common in the analysis of biological data. Whilst LMMs offer a flexible approach to modelling a broad range of data types, ecological data are often complex and require complex model structures, and the fitting and interpretation of such models is not always straightforward. The ability to achieve robust biological inference requires that practitioners know how and when to apply these tools. Here, we provide a general overview of current methods for the application of LMMs to biological data, and highlight the typical pitfalls that can be encountered in the statistical modelling process. We tackle several issues regarding methods of model selection, with particular reference to the use of information theory and multi-model inference in ecology. We offer practical solutions and direct the reader to key references that provide further technical detail for those seeking a deeper understanding. This overview should serve as a widely accessible code of best practice for applying LMMs to complex biological problems and model structures, and in doing so improve the robustness of conclusions drawn from studies investigating ecological and evolutionary questions. PMID:29844961

A brief introduction to mixed effects modelling and multi-model inference in ecology.

PubMed

Harrison, Xavier A; Donaldson, Lynda; Correa-Cano, Maria Eugenia; Evans, Julian; Fisher, David N; Goodwin, Cecily E D; Robinson, Beth S; Hodgson, David J; Inger, Richard

2018-01-01

The use of linear mixed effects models (LMMs) is increasingly common in the analysis of biological data. Whilst LMMs offer a flexible approach to modelling a broad range of data types, ecological data are often complex and require complex model structures, and the fitting and interpretation of such models is not always straightforward. The ability to achieve robust biological inference requires that practitioners know how and when to apply these tools. Here, we provide a general overview of current methods for the application of LMMs to biological data, and highlight the typical pitfalls that can be encountered in the statistical modelling process. We tackle several issues regarding methods of model selection, with particular reference to the use of information theory and multi-model inference in ecology. We offer practical solutions and direct the reader to key references that provide further technical detail for those seeking a deeper understanding. This overview should serve as a widely accessible code of best practice for applying LMMs to complex biological problems and model structures, and in doing so improve the robustness of conclusions drawn from studies investigating ecological and evolutionary questions.

Looking Past Primary Productivity: Benchmarking System Processes that Drive Ecosystem Level Responses in Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cowdery, E.; Dietze, M.

2017-12-01

As atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide levels continue to increase, it is critical that terrestrial ecosystem models can accurately predict ecological responses to the changing environment. Current predictions of net primary productivity (NPP) in response to elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration are highly variable and contain a considerable amount of uncertainty. Benchmarking model predictions against data are necessary to assess their ability to replicate observed patterns, but also to identify and evaluate the assumptions causing inter-model differences. We have implemented a novel benchmarking workflow as part of the Predictive Ecosystem Analyzer (PEcAn) that is automated, repeatable, and generalized to incorporate different sites and ecological models. Building on the recent Free-Air CO2 Enrichment Model Data Synthesis (FACE-MDS) project, we used observational data from the FACE experiments to test this flexible, extensible benchmarking approach aimed at providing repeatable tests of model process representation that can be performed quickly and frequently. Model performance assessments are often limited to traditional residual error analysis; however, this can result in a loss of critical information. Models that fail tests of relative measures of fit may still perform well under measures of absolute fit and mathematical similarity. This implies that models that are discounted as poor predictors of ecological productivity may still be capturing important patterns. Conversely, models that have been found to be good predictors of productivity may be hiding error in their sub-process that result in the right answers for the wrong reasons. Our suite of tests have not only highlighted process based sources of uncertainty in model productivity calculations, they have also quantified the patterns and scale of this error. Combining these findings with PEcAn's model sensitivity analysis and variance decomposition strengthen our ability to identify which processes need further study and additional data constraints. This can be used to inform future experimental design and in turn can provide an informative starting point for data assimilation.

Individual-based modeling of ecological and evolutionary processes

USGS Publications Warehouse

DeAngelis, Donald L.; Mooij, Wolf M.

2005-01-01

Individual-based models (IBMs) allow the explicit inclusion of individual variation in greater detail than do classical differential-equation and difference-equation models. Inclusion of such variation is important for continued progress in ecological and evolutionary theory. We provide a conceptual basis for IBMs by describing five major types of individual variation in IBMs: spatial, ontogenetic, phenotypic, cognitive, and genetic. IBMs are now used in almost all subfields of ecology and evolutionary biology. We map those subfields and look more closely at selected key papers on fish recruitment, forest dynamics, sympatric speciation, metapopulation dynamics, maintenance of diversity, and species conservation. Theorists are currently divided on whether IBMs represent only a practical tool for extending classical theory to more complex situations, or whether individual-based theory represents a radically new research program. We feel that the tension between these two poles of thinking can be a source of creativity in ecology and evolutionary theory.

Social-ecological outcomes in recreational fisheries: the interaction of lakeshore development and stocking.

PubMed

Ziegler, Jacob P; Golebie, Elizabeth J; Jones, Stuart E; Weidel, Brian C; Solomon, Christopher T

2017-01-01

Many ecosystems continue to experience rapid transformations due to processes like land use change and resource extraction. A systems approach to maintaining natural resources focuses on how interactions and feedbacks among components of complex social-ecological systems generate social and ecological outcomes. In recreational fisheries, residential shoreline development and fish stocking are two widespread human behaviors that influence fisheries, yet emergent social-ecological outcomes from these potentially interacting behaviors remain under explored. We applied a social-ecological systems framework using a simulation model and empirical data to determine whether lakeshore development is likely to promote stocking through its adverse effects on coarse woody habitat and thereby also on survival of juvenile and adult fish. We demonstrate that high lakeshore development is likely to generate dependency of the ecosystem on the social system, in the form of stocking. Further, lakeshore development can interact with social-ecological processes to create deficits for state-level governments, which threatens the ability to fund further ecosystem subsidies. Our results highlight the value of a social-ecological framework for maintaining ecosystem services like recreational fisheries. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

Ecological prediction with nonlinear multivariate time-frequency functional data models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Yang, Wen-Hsi; Wikle, Christopher K.; Holan, Scott H.; Wildhaber, Mark L.

2013-01-01

Time-frequency analysis has become a fundamental component of many scientific inquiries. Due to improvements in technology, the amount of high-frequency signals that are collected for ecological and other scientific processes is increasing at a dramatic rate. In order to facilitate the use of these data in ecological prediction, we introduce a class of nonlinear multivariate time-frequency functional models that can identify important features of each signal as well as the interaction of signals corresponding to the response variable of interest. Our methodology is of independent interest and utilizes stochastic search variable selection to improve model selection and performs model averaging to enhance prediction. We illustrate the effectiveness of our approach through simulation and by application to predicting spawning success of shovelnose sturgeon in the Lower Missouri River.

Using an ecological ethics framework to make decisions about the relocation of wildlife.

PubMed

McCoy, Earl D; Berry, Kristin

2008-12-01

Relocation is an increasingly prominent conservation tool for a variety of wildlife, but the technique also is controversial, even among conservation practitioners. An organized framework for addressing the moral dilemmas often accompanying conservation actions such as relocation has been lacking. Ecological ethics may provide such a framework and appears to be an important step forward in aiding ecological researchers and biodiversity managers to make difficult moral choices. A specific application of this framework can make the reasoning process more transparent and give more emphasis to the strong sentiments about non-human organisms held by many potential users. Providing an example of the application of the framework may also increase the appeal of the reasoning process to ecological researchers and biodiversity managers. Relocation as a conservation action can be accompanied by a variety of moral dilemmas that reflect the interconnection of values, ethical positions, and conservation decisions. A model that is designed to address moral dilemmas arising from relocation of humans provides/demonstrates/illustrates a possible way to apply the ecological ethics framework and to involve practicing conservationists in the overall decision-making process.

Diversity spurs diversification in ecological communities

PubMed Central

Calcagno, Vincent; Jarne, Philippe; Loreau, Michel; Mouquet, Nicolas; David, Patrice

2017-01-01

Diversity is a fundamental, yet threatened, property of ecological systems. The idea that diversity can itself favour diversification, in an autocatalytic process, is very appealing but remains controversial. Here, we study a generalized model of ecological communities and investigate how the level of initial diversity influences the possibility of evolutionary diversification. We show that even simple models of intra- and inter-specific ecological interactions can predict a positive effect of diversity on diversification: adaptive radiations may require a threshold number of species before kicking-off. We call this phenomenon DDAR (diversity-dependent adaptive radiations) and identify mathematically two distinct pathways connecting diversity to diversification, involving character displacement and the positive diversity-productivity relationship. Our results may explain observed delays in adaptive radiations at the macroscale and diversification patterns reported in experimental microbial communities, and shed new light on the dynamics of ecological diversity, the diversity-dependence of diversification rates, and the consequences of biodiversity loss. PMID:28598423

Diversity spurs diversification in ecological communities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Calcagno, Vincent; Jarne, Philippe; Loreau, Michel; Mouquet, Nicolas; David, Patrice

2017-06-01

Diversity is a fundamental, yet threatened, property of ecological systems. The idea that diversity can itself favour diversification, in an autocatalytic process, is very appealing but remains controversial. Here, we study a generalized model of ecological communities and investigate how the level of initial diversity influences the possibility of evolutionary diversification. We show that even simple models of intra- and inter-specific ecological interactions can predict a positive effect of diversity on diversification: adaptive radiations may require a threshold number of species before kicking-off. We call this phenomenon DDAR (diversity-dependent adaptive radiations) and identify mathematically two distinct pathways connecting diversity to diversification, involving character displacement and the positive diversity-productivity relationship. Our results may explain observed delays in adaptive radiations at the macroscale and diversification patterns reported in experimental microbial communities, and shed new light on the dynamics of ecological diversity, the diversity-dependence of diversification rates, and the consequences of biodiversity loss.

Diversity spurs diversification in ecological communities.

PubMed

Calcagno, Vincent; Jarne, Philippe; Loreau, Michel; Mouquet, Nicolas; David, Patrice

2017-06-09

Diversity is a fundamental, yet threatened, property of ecological systems. The idea that diversity can itself favour diversification, in an autocatalytic process, is very appealing but remains controversial. Here, we study a generalized model of ecological communities and investigate how the level of initial diversity influences the possibility of evolutionary diversification. We show that even simple models of intra- and inter-specific ecological interactions can predict a positive effect of diversity on diversification: adaptive radiations may require a threshold number of species before kicking-off. We call this phenomenon DDAR (diversity-dependent adaptive radiations) and identify mathematically two distinct pathways connecting diversity to diversification, involving character displacement and the positive diversity-productivity relationship. Our results may explain observed delays in adaptive radiations at the macroscale and diversification patterns reported in experimental microbial communities, and shed new light on the dynamics of ecological diversity, the diversity-dependence of diversification rates, and the consequences of biodiversity loss.

[Urbanization expanding process and its spatial characteristics in changping district of Beijing, China].

PubMed

Zhang, Feng; Zhang, Xinshi

2005-06-01

Urbanization is a massive and unplanned experiment that already affects large acreages worldwide, and has profound social and ecological consequences for both urban and rural residents. Therefore, to comprehensively quantify the urbanization process and to investigate its ecological consequences become the central issues in urban ecological studies. Combining urbanization expanding index with landscape metrics, this paper quantified the urbanization expanding process and the urbanization spatial characteristics in Changping District of Beijing. The results showed that there were three main urbanization models, i. e., urban fringe belt-expending model, main transportation routes line-expending model, and satellite city panel-expending model. The urbanization expansion index showed that urbanization mainly took place during the period from 1989 to 1996, and the urban landscape metrics indicated that there were urban patches isolated expanding and new urban patches emerged from 1989 to 1996, mainly amalgamated expanding from 1996 to 2001 in urban fringe belt-expanding region. In transportation routes line-expanding region, the urban patches isolated expanding, amalgamated expanding and new urban patches emerging took place simultaneously, and mainly urban patches amalgamated expanding during the former period, and new urban patches constantly turning up around satellite city during the latter in satellite city panel-expanding region. This study showed that urbanization expansion integrating landscape metrics might reveal the urbanization expanding process and its spatial characteristics, and would be a good example for the application of landscape metrics.

Extrinsic and Intrinsic Responses to Environmental Change: Insights from Terrestrial Paleoecological Archives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seddon, A. W. R.; Mackay, A. W.

2015-12-01

Current understanding of ecological behaviour indicates that systems can experience sudden and abrupt changes in state, driven either by a large external change in environmental conditions (extrinsically forced), or the result of a set local feedbacks and site-specific interactions (intrinsically mediated responses). Responses mediated by intrinsic processes are notoriously diffi- cult to predict, they can occur as slow environmental variables gradually erode the resilience of the system eventually resulting in threshold transitions between alternative stable states. Finding ways to identify, model and predict such complex ecosystem behavior has been identified as a priority research challenge for both ecology and paleoecology. The paleoecological record can play a role in understanding the processes behind abrupt ecological change because it enables the reconstruction of processes occurring over decadal-centennial timescales or longer. Therefore, paleoecological data can be used to identify the existence of ecological thresholds and to investigate the environmental processes that can lead to loss of resilience and abrupt transitions between alternate states. In addition, incidences of abrupt vegetation changes in the past can serve as palaeoecological model systems; analogues of abrupt dynamics which can be used to test theories surrounding ecological responses to climate change. Here, I present examples from a range of terrestrial ecosystems (Holocene environmental changes from a coastal lagoon in the Galapagos Islands; Northern European vegetation changes since the last deglaciation; the North American hemlock decline) demonstrating evidence of abrupt ecosystem change. For each system I present a set of statistical techniques tailored to distin- guish between extrinsic versus intrinsically mediated ecological responses. Examples are provided from both single sites (i.e. landscape scale) and multiple sites (regional-continental scale). These techniques provide a useful way to identify when and where intrinsically mediated responses to environmental change occurs; the next challenge is to understand and quantify the processes that underlie these intrinsic responses.

History of research on modelling gypsy moth population ecology

Treesearch

J. J. Colbert

1991-01-01

History of research to develop models of gypsy moth population dynamics and some related studies are described. Empirical regression-based models are reviewed, and then the more comprehensive process models are discussed. Current model- related research efforts are introduced.

Linking microbial and ecosystem ecology using ecological stoichiometry: a synthesis of conceptual and empirical approaches

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hall, E.K.; Maixner, F.; Franklin, O.; Daims, H.; Richter, A.; Battin, T.

2011-01-01

Currently, one of the biggest challenges in microbial and ecosystem ecology is to develop conceptual models that organize the growing body of information on environmental microbiology into a clear mechanistic framework with a direct link to ecosystem processes. Doing so will enable development of testable hypotheses to better direct future research and increase understanding of key constraints on biogeochemical networks. Although the understanding of phenotypic and genotypic diversity of microorganisms in the environment is rapidly accumulating, how controls on microbial physiology ultimately affect biogeochemical fluxes remains poorly understood. We propose that insight into constraints on biogeochemical cycles can be achieved by a more rigorous evaluation of microbial community biomass composition within the context of ecological stoichiometry. Multiple recent studies have pointed to microbial biomass stoichiometry as an important determinant of when microorganisms retain or recycle mineral nutrients. We identify the relevant cellular components that most likely drive changes in microbial biomass stoichiometry by defining a conceptual model rooted in ecological stoichiometry. More importantly, we show how X-ray microanalysis (XRMA), nanoscale secondary ion mass spectroscopy (NanoSIMS), Raman microspectroscopy, and in situ hybridization techniques (for example, FISH) can be applied in concert to allow for direct empirical evaluation of the proposed conceptual framework. This approach links an important piece of the ecological literature, ecological stoichiometry, with the molecular front of the microbial revolution, in an attempt to provide new insight into how microbial physiology could constrain ecosystem processes.

Purpose, processes, partnerships, and products: four Ps to advance participatory socio-environmental modeling.

PubMed

Gray, Steven; Voinov, Alexey; Paolisso, Michael; Jordan, Rebecca; BenDor, Todd; Bommel, Pierre; Glynn, Pierre; Hedelin, Beatrice; Hubacek, Klaus; Introne, Josh; Kolagani, Nagesh; Laursen, Bethany; Prell, Christina; Schmitt Olabisi, Laura; Singer, Alison; Sterling, Eleanor; Zellner, Moira

2018-01-01

Including stakeholders in environmental model building and analysis is an increasingly popular approach to understanding ecological change. This is because stakeholders often hold valuable knowledge about socio-environmental dynamics and collaborative forms of modeling produce important boundary objects used to collectively reason about environmental problems. Although the number of participatory modeling (PM) case studies and the number of researchers adopting these approaches has grown in recent years, the lack of standardized reporting and limited reproducibility have prevented PM's establishment and advancement as a cohesive field of study. We suggest a four-dimensional framework (4P) that includes reporting on dimensions of (1) the Purpose for selecting a PM approach (the why); (2) the Process by which the public was involved in model building or evaluation (the how); (3) the Partnerships formed (the who); and (4) the Products that resulted from these efforts (the what). We highlight four case studies that use common PM software-based approaches (fuzzy cognitive mapping, agent-based modeling, system dynamics, and participatory geospatial modeling) to understand human-environment interactions and the consequences of ecological changes, including bushmeat hunting in Tanzania and Cameroon, agricultural production and deforestation in Zambia, and groundwater management in India. We demonstrate how standardizing communication about PM case studies can lead to innovation and new insights about model-based reasoning in support of ecological policy development. We suggest that our 4P framework and reporting approach provides a way for new hypotheses to be identified and tested in the growing field of PM. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

Ecological control line: A decade of exploration and an innovative path of ecological land management for megacities in China.

PubMed

Hong, Wuyang; Yang, Chengyun; Chen, Liuxin; Zhang, Fangfang; Shen, Shaoqing; Guo, Renzhong

2017-04-15

Ecological control line is a system innovation in the field of ecological environment protection in China and it has become as an important strategy of national ecological protection. Ten years have passed since the first ecological control line in Shenzhen was delimited in 2005. This study examines the connotations of ecological control line and the current study status in China and abroad, and then takes a brief description about the delimitation background and existing problems of the ecological control line in Shenzhen. The problem-solving strategy is gradually transforming from extensive management to refined management. This study proposes a differential ecological space management model that merges the space system, management system, and support system. The implementation paths include the following five aspects: delimiting ecological bottom lines to protect core ecological resources; formulating access systems for new construction projects to strictly control new construction; implementing construction land inventory reclamation assisted by market means; regulating boundary adjusting procedures and processes; and constructing ecological equity products by using multiple means to implement rights relief. Finally, this study illustrates the progress of the implementation and discusses the rigorousness and flexibility problems of ecological control line and calls for the promotion of the legislation. The management model and implementation paths proposed in this study have referential significance for developing countries and megacities to achieve ecological protection and sustainable development. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Improvement of ecological characteristics of the hydrogen diesel engine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Natriashvili, T.; Kavtaradze, R.; Glonti, M.

2018-02-01

In the article are considered the questions of influence of a swirl intensity of the shot and injector design on the ecological indices of the hydrogen diesel, little-investigated till now. The necessity of solution of these problems arises at conversion of the serial diesel engine into the hydrogen diesel. The mathematical model consists of the three-dimensional non-stationary equations of transfer and also models of turbulence and combustion. The numerical experiments have been carried out with the use of program code FIRE. The optimal values of parameters of the working process, ensuring improvement of the effective and ecological indices of the hydrogen diesel are determined.

Modeling forest carbon cycle using long-term carbon stock field measurement in the Delaware River Basin

Treesearch

Bing Xu; Yude Pan; Alain F. Plante; Kevin McCullough; Richard Birdsey

2017-01-01

Process-based models are a powerful approach to test our understanding of biogeochemical processes, to extrapolate ground survey data from limited plots to the landscape scale, and to simulate the effects of climate change, nitrogen deposition, elevated atmospheric CO2, increasing natural disturbances, and land-use change on ecological processes...

Establishing ecological networks for habitat conservation in the case of Çeşme-Urla Peninsula, Turkey.

PubMed

Hepcan, Ciğdem Coşkun; Ozkan, Mehmet Bülent

2011-03-01

The study involves the Çeşme-Urla Peninsula, where habitat fragmentation and loss, which threaten biological diversity, have become an urgent matter of concern in recent decades. The study area has been subjected to anthropogenic pressures and alterations due to ongoing and impending land uses. Therefore, ecological networks, as an appropriate way to deal with habitat fragmentation and loss and to improve ecological quality, were identified in the study area as one of the early attempts in the country to maintain its rich biodiversity. In this sense, core areas and ecological linkages as primary components of ecological networks were established on the basis of sustaining natural habitats. A GIS-based model was created to identify core areas and to facilitate the ecological connectivity. The modeling process for core areas and corridors combined 14 and 21 different variables, respectively. The variables were used as environmental inputs in the model, and all analyses were materialized in ArcGIS 9.2 using grid functions of image analysis and spatial analyst modules. As a result, six core areas and 36 corridor alternatives were materialized. Furthermore, some recommendations for the implementation and management of the proposed ecological networks were revealed and discussed.

Annual Research Review: What is Resilience within the Social Ecology of Human Development?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ungar, Michael; Ghazinour, Mehdi; Richter, Jorg

2013-01-01

Background: The development of Bronfenbrenner's bio-social-ecological systems model of human development parallels advances made to the theory of resilience that progressively moved from a more individual (micro) focus on traits to a multisystemic understanding of person-environment reciprocal processes. Methods: This review uses…

Invasion of two tick-borne diseases across New England: harnessing human surveillance data to capture underlying ecological invasion processes

PubMed Central

Walter, Katharine S.; Pepin, Kim M.; Webb, Colleen T.; Gaff, Holly D.; Krause, Peter J.; Pitzer, Virginia E.; Diuk-Wasser, Maria A.

2016-01-01

Modelling the spatial spread of vector-borne zoonotic pathogens maintained in enzootic transmission cycles remains a major challenge. The best available spatio-temporal data on pathogen spread often take the form of human disease surveillance data. By applying a classic ecological approach—occupancy modelling—to an epidemiological question of disease spread, we used surveillance data to examine the latent ecological invasion of tick-borne pathogens. Over the last half-century, previously undescribed tick-borne pathogens including the agents of Lyme disease and human babesiosis have rapidly spread across the northeast United States. Despite their epidemiological importance, the mechanisms of tick-borne pathogen invasion and drivers underlying the distinct invasion trajectories of the co-vectored pathogens remain unresolved. Our approach allowed us to estimate the unobserved ecological processes underlying pathogen spread while accounting for imperfect detection of human cases. Our model predicts that tick-borne diseases spread in a diffusion-like manner with occasional long-distance dispersal and that babesiosis spread exhibits strong dependence on Lyme disease. PMID:27252022

Ecology of Yersinia pestis and the Epidemiology of Plague.

PubMed

Dubyanskiy, Vladimir M; Yeszhanov, Aidyn B

2016-01-01

This chapter summarizes information about the natural foci of plague in the world. We describe the location, main hosts, and vectors of Yersinia pestis. The ecological features of the hosts and vectors of plague are listed, including predators - birds and mammals and their role in the epizootic. The epizootic process in plague and the factors affecting the dynamics of epizootic activity of natural foci of Y. pestis are described in detail. The mathematical models of the epizootic process in plague and predictive models are briefly described. The most comprehensive list of the hosts and vectors of Y. pestis in the world is presented as well.

[Urban ecological risk assessment: a review].

PubMed

Wang, Mei-E; Chen, Wei-Ping; Peng, Chi

2014-03-01

With the development of urbanization and the degradation of urban living environment, urban ecological risks caused by urbanization have attracted more and more attentions. Based on urban ecology principles and ecological risk assessment frameworks, contents of urban ecological risk assessment were reviewed in terms of driven forces, risk resources, risk receptors, endpoints and integrated approaches for risk assessment. It was suggested that types and degrees of urban economical and social activities were the driven forces for urban ecological risks. Ecological functional components at different levels in urban ecosystems as well as the urban system as a whole were the risk receptors. Assessment endpoints involved in changes of urban ecological structures, processes, functional components and the integrity of characteristic and function. Social-ecological models should be the major approaches for urban ecological risk assessment. Trends for urban ecological risk assessment study should focus on setting a definite protection target and criteria corresponding to assessment endpoints, establishing a multiple-parameter assessment system and integrative assessment approaches.

Conceptual ecological models to guide integrated landscape monitoring of the Great Basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Miller, D.M.; Finn, S.P.; Woodward, Andrea; Torregrosa, Alicia; Miller, M.E.; Bedford, D.R.; Brasher, A.M.

2010-01-01

The Great Basin Integrated Landscape Monitoring Pilot Project was developed in response to the need for a monitoring and predictive capability that addresses changes in broad landscapes and waterscapes. Human communities and needs are nested within landscapes formed by interactions among the hydrosphere, geosphere, and biosphere. Understanding the complex processes that shape landscapes and deriving ways to manage them sustainably while meeting human needs require sophisticated modeling and monitoring. This document summarizes current understanding of ecosystem structure and function for many of the ecosystems within the Great Basin using conceptual models. The conceptual ecosystem models identify key ecological components and processes, identify external drivers, develop a hierarchical set of models that address both site and landscape attributes, inform regional monitoring strategy, and identify critical gaps in our knowledge of ecosystem function. The report also illustrates an approach for temporal and spatial scaling from site-specific models to landscape models and for understanding cumulative effects. Eventually, conceptual models can provide a structure for designing monitoring programs, interpreting monitoring and other data, and assessing the accuracy of our understanding of ecosystem functions and processes.

Epistasis can accelerate adaptive diversification in haploid asexual populations.

PubMed

Griswold, Cortland K

2015-03-07

A fundamental goal of the biological sciences is to determine processes that facilitate the evolution of diversity. These processes can be separated into ecological, physiological, developmental and genetic. An ecological process that facilitates diversification is frequency-dependent selection caused by competition. Models of frequency-dependent adaptive diversification have generally assumed a genetic basis of phenotype that is non-epistatic. Here, we present a model that indicates diversification is accelerated by an epistatic basis of phenotype in combination with a competition model that invokes frequency-dependent selection. Our model makes use of a genealogical model of epistasis and insights into the effects of balancing selection on the genealogical structure of a population to understand how epistasis can facilitate diversification. The finding that epistasis facilitates diversification may be informative with respect to empirical results that indicate an epistatic basis of phenotype in experimental bacterial populations that experienced adaptive diversification. © 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Simulation of Regionally Ecological Land Based on a Cellular Automation Model: A Case Study of Beijing, China

PubMed Central

Xie, Hualin; Kung, Chih-Chun; Zhang, Yanting; Li, Xiubin

2012-01-01

Ecological land is like the “liver” of a city and is very useful to public health. Ecological land change is a spatially dynamic non-linear process under the interaction between natural and anthropogenic factors at different scales. In this study, by setting up natural development scenario, object orientation scenario and ecosystem priority scenario, a Cellular Automation (CA) model has been established to simulate the evolution pattern of ecological land in Beijing in the year 2020. Under the natural development scenario, most of ecological land will be replaced by construction land and crop land. But under the scenarios of object orientation and ecosystem priority, the ecological land area will increase, especially under the scenario of ecosystem priority. When considering the factors such as total area of ecological land, loss of key ecological land and spatial patterns of land use, the scenarios from priority to inferiority are ecosystem priority, object orientation and natural development, so future land management policies in Beijing should be focused on conversion of cropland to forest, wetland protection and prohibition of exploitation of natural protection zones, water source areas and forest parks to maintain the safety of the regional ecosystem. PMID:23066410

Simulation of regionally ecological land based on a cellular automation model: a case study of Beijing, China.

PubMed

Xie, Hualin; Kung, Chih-Chun; Zhang, Yanting; Li, Xiubin

2012-08-01

Ecological land is like the "liver" of a city and is very useful to public health. Ecological land change is a spatially dynamic non-linear process under the interaction between natural and anthropogenic factors at different scales. In this study, by setting up natural development scenario, object orientation scenario and ecosystem priority scenario, a Cellular Automation (CA) model has been established to simulate the evolution pattern of ecological land in Beijing in the year 2020. Under the natural development scenario, most of ecological land will be replaced by construction land and crop land. But under the scenarios of object orientation and ecosystem priority, the ecological land area will increase, especially under the scenario of ecosystem priority. When considering the factors such as total area of ecological land, loss of key ecological land and spatial patterns of land use, the scenarios from priority to inferiority are ecosystem priority, object orientation and natural development, so future land management policies in Beijing should be focused on conversion of cropland to forest, wetland protection and prohibition of exploitation of natural protection zones, water source areas and forest parks to maintain the safety of the regional ecosystem.

Dynamic Models of Insurgent Activity

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-05-19

Martin Short, P. Jeffrey Brantingham, Frederick Schoenberg, George Tita . Self-Exciting Point Process Modeling of Crime, Journal of the American...Mohler, P. J. Brantingham, G. E. Tita . Gang rivalry dynamics via coupled point process networks, Discrete and Continuous Dynamical Systems - Series...8532-2-1 Laura Smith, Andrea Bertozzi, P. Jeffrey Brantingham, George Tita , Matthew Valasik. ADAPTATION OF AN ECOLOGICAL TERRITORIAL MODEL TOSTREET

Interactions of social, terrestrial, and marine sub-systems in the Galapagos Islands, Ecuador.

PubMed

Walsh, Stephen J; Mena, Carlos F

2016-12-20

Galapagos is often cited as an example of the conflicts that are emerging between resource conservation and economic development in island ecosystems, as the pressures associated with tourism threaten nature, including the iconic and emblematic species, unique terrestrial landscapes, and special marine environments. In this paper, two projects are described that rely upon dynamic systems models and agent-based models to examine human-environment interactions. We use a theoretical context rooted in complexity theory to guide the development of our models that are linked to social-ecological dynamics. The goal of this paper is to describe key elements, relationships, and processes to inform and enhance our understanding of human-environment interactions in the Galapagos Islands of Ecuador. By formalizing our knowledge of how systems operate and the manner in which key elements are linked in coupled human-natural systems, we specify rules, relationships, and rates of exchange between social and ecological features derived through statistical functions and/or functions specified in theory or practice. The processes described in our models also have practical applications in that they emphasize how political policies generate different human responses and model outcomes, many detrimental to the social-ecological sustainability of the Galapagos Islands.

Interactions of social, terrestrial, and marine sub-systems in the Galapagos Islands, Ecuador

PubMed Central

Walsh, Stephen J.; Mena, Carlos F.

2016-01-01

Galapagos is often cited as an example of the conflicts that are emerging between resource conservation and economic development in island ecosystems, as the pressures associated with tourism threaten nature, including the iconic and emblematic species, unique terrestrial landscapes, and special marine environments. In this paper, two projects are described that rely upon dynamic systems models and agent-based models to examine human–environment interactions. We use a theoretical context rooted in complexity theory to guide the development of our models that are linked to social–ecological dynamics. The goal of this paper is to describe key elements, relationships, and processes to inform and enhance our understanding of human–environment interactions in the Galapagos Islands of Ecuador. By formalizing our knowledge of how systems operate and the manner in which key elements are linked in coupled human–natural systems, we specify rules, relationships, and rates of exchange between social and ecological features derived through statistical functions and/or functions specified in theory or practice. The processes described in our models also have practical applications in that they emphasize how political policies generate different human responses and model outcomes, many detrimental to the social–ecological sustainability of the Galapagos Islands. PMID:27791072

Novel Methods in Disease Biogeography: A Case Study with Heterosporosis

PubMed Central

Escobar, Luis E.; Qiao, Huijie; Lee, Christine; Phelps, Nicholas B. D.

2017-01-01

Disease biogeography is currently a promising field to complement epidemiology, and ecological niche modeling theory and methods are a key component. Therefore, applying the concepts and tools from ecological niche modeling to disease biogeography and epidemiology will provide biologically sound and analytically robust descriptive and predictive analyses of disease distributions. As a case study, we explored the ecologically important fish disease Heterosporosis, a relatively poorly understood disease caused by the intracellular microsporidian parasite Heterosporis sutherlandae. We explored two novel ecological niche modeling methods, the minimum-volume ellipsoid (MVE) and the Marble algorithm, which were used to reconstruct the fundamental and the realized ecological niche of H. sutherlandae, respectively. Additionally, we assessed how the management of occurrence reports can impact the output of the models. Ecological niche models were able to reconstruct a proxy of the fundamental and realized niche for this aquatic parasite, identifying specific areas suitable for Heterosporosis. We found that the conceptual and methodological advances in ecological niche modeling provide accessible tools to update the current practices of spatial epidemiology. However, careful data curation and a detailed understanding of the algorithm employed are critical for a clear definition of the assumptions implicit in the modeling process and to ensure biologically sound forecasts. In this paper, we show how sensitive MVE is to the input data, while Marble algorithm may provide detailed forecasts with a minimum of parameters. We showed that exploring algorithms of different natures such as environmental clusters, climatic envelopes, and logistic regressions (e.g., Marble, MVE, and Maxent) provide different scenarios of potential distribution. Thus, no single algorithm should be used for disease mapping. Instead, different algorithms should be employed for a more informed and complete understanding of the pathogen or parasite in question. PMID:28770215

Interdisciplinary Pathways for Urban Metabolism Research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Newell, J. P.

2011-12-01

With its rapid rise as a metaphor to express coupled natural-human systems in cities, the concept of urban metabolism is evolving into a series of relatively distinct research frameworks amongst various disciplines, with varying definitions, theories, models, and emphases. In industrial ecology, housed primarily within the disciplinary domain of engineering, urban metabolism research has focused on quantifying material and energy flows into, within, and out of cities, using methodologies such as material flow analysis and life cycle assessment. In the field of urban ecology, which is strongly influenced by ecology and urban planning, research focus has been placed on understanding and modeling the complex patterns and processes of human-ecological systems within urban areas. Finally, in political ecology, closely aligned with human geography and anthropology, scholars theorize about the interwoven knots of social and natural processes, material flows, and spatial structures that form the urban metabolism. This paper offers three potential interdisciplinary urban metabolism research tracks that might integrate elements of these three "ecologies," thereby bridging engineering and the social and physical sciences. First, it presents the idea of infrastructure ecology, which explores the complex, emergent interdependencies between gray (water and wastewater, transportation, etc) and green (e.g. parks, greenways) infrastructure systems, as nested within a broader socio-economic context. For cities to be sustainable and resilient over time-space, the theory follows, these is a need to understand and redesign these infrastructure linkages. Second, there is the concept of an urban-scale carbon metabolism model which integrates consumption-based material flow analysis (including goods, water, and materials), with the carbon sink and source dynamics of the built environment (e.g. buildings, etc) and urban ecosystems. Finally, there is the political ecology of the material urban metabolism, which adds spatial differentiation to materials flows and form, as well as a focus on equity, access, and governance dimensions of the urban metabolism.

75 years of dryland science: Trends and gaps in arid ecology literature

PubMed Central

Dickman, Chris R.; Wardle, Glenda M.

2017-01-01

Growth in the publication of scientific articles is occurring at an exponential rate, prompting a growing need to synthesise information in a timely manner to combat urgent environmental problems and guide future research. Here, we undertake a topic analysis of dryland literature over the last 75 years (8218 articles) to identify areas in arid ecology that are well studied and topics that are emerging. Four topics—wetlands, mammal ecology, litter decomposition and spatial modelling, were identified as ‘hot topics’ that showed higher than average growth in publications from 1940 to 2015. Five topics—remote sensing, climate, habitat and spatial, agriculture and soils-microbes, were identified as ‘cold topics’, with lower than average growth over the survey period, but higher than average numbers of publications. Topics in arid ecology clustered into seven broad groups on word-based similarity. These groups ranged from mammal ecology and population genetics, broad-scale management and ecosystem modelling, plant ecology, agriculture and ecophysiology, to populations and paleoclimate. These patterns may reflect trends in the field of ecology more broadly. We also identified two broad research gaps in arid ecology: population genetics, and habitat and spatial research. Collaborations between population genetics and ecologists and investigations of ecological processes across spatial scales would contribute profitably to the advancement of arid ecology and to ecology more broadly. PMID:28384186

Panaceas and diversification of environmental policy

PubMed Central

Brock, William A.; Carpenter, Stephen R.

2007-01-01

We consider panacea formation in the framework of adaptive learning and decision for social–ecological systems (SESs). Institutions for managing such systems must address multiple timescales of ecological change, as well as features of the social community in which the ecosystem policy problem is embedded. Response of the SES to each candidate institution must be modeled and treated as a stochastic process with unknown parameters to be estimated. A fundamental challenge is to design institutions that are not vulnerable to capture by subsets of the community that self-organize to direct the institution against the overall social interest. In a world of episodic structural change, such as SESs, adaptive learning can lock in to a single institution, model, or parameter estimate. Policy diversification, leading to escape from panacea traps, can come from monitoring indicators of episodic change on slow timescales, minimax regret decision making, active experimentation to accelerate model identification, mechanisms for broadening the set of models or institutions under consideration, and processes for discovery of new institutions and technologies for ecosystem management. It is difficult to take all of these factors into account, but the discipline that comes with the attempt to model the coupled social–ecological dynamics forces policy makers to confront all conceivable responses. This process helps induce the modesty needed to avoid panacea traps while supporting systematic effort to improve resource management in the public interest. PMID:17881581

Self-consistent approach for neutral community models with speciation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haegeman, Bart; Etienne, Rampal S.

2010-03-01

Hubbell’s neutral model provides a rich theoretical framework to study ecological communities. By incorporating both ecological and evolutionary time scales, it allows us to investigate how communities are shaped by speciation processes. The speciation model in the basic neutral model is particularly simple, describing speciation as a point-mutation event in a birth of a single individual. The stationary species abundance distribution of the basic model, which can be solved exactly, fits empirical data of distributions of species’ abundances surprisingly well. More realistic speciation models have been proposed such as the random-fission model in which new species appear by splitting up existing species. However, no analytical solution is available for these models, impeding quantitative comparison with data. Here, we present a self-consistent approximation method for neutral community models with various speciation modes, including random fission. We derive explicit formulas for the stationary species abundance distribution, which agree very well with simulations. We expect that our approximation method will be useful to study other speciation processes in neutral community models as well.

Understanding and predicting ecological dynamics: Are major surprises inevitable

USGS Publications Warehouse

Doak, Daniel F.; Estes, James A.; Halpern, Benjamin S.; Jacob, Ute; Lindberg, D.R.; Lovvorn, James R.; Monson, Daniel H.; Tinker, M. Tim; Williams, Terrie M.; Wootton, J. Timothy; Carroll, Ian; Emmerson, Mark; Micheli, Fiorenza; Novak, Mark

2008-01-01

Ecological surprises, substantial and unanticipated changes in the abundance of one or more species that result from previously unsuspected processes, are a common outcome of both experiments and observations in community and population ecology. Here, we give examples of such surprises along with the results of a survey of well-established field ecologists, most of whom have encountered one or more surprises over the course of their careers. Truly surprising results are common enough to require their consideration in any reasonable effort to characterize nature and manage natural resources. We classify surprises as dynamic-, pattern-, or intervention-based, and we speculate on the common processes that cause ecological systems to so often surprise us. A long-standing and still growing concern in the ecological literature is how best to make predictions of future population and community dynamics. Although most work on this subject involves statistical aspects of data analysis and modeling, the frequency and nature of ecological surprises imply that uncertainty cannot be easily tamed through improved analytical procedures, and that prudent management of both exploited and conserved communities will require precautionary and adaptive management approaches.

[Political ecology, ecological economics, and public health: interfaces for the sustainability of development and health promotion].

PubMed

Porto, Marcelo Firpo; Martinez-Alier, Joan

2007-01-01

This article proposes to focus contributions from political ecology and ecological economics to the field of collective health with a view towards integrating the discussions around health promotion, socio-environmental sustainability, and development. Ecological economics is a recent interdisciplinary field that combines economists and other professionals from the social, human, and life sciences. The field has developed new concepts and methodologies that seek to grasp the relationship between the economy and ecological and social processes such as social metabolism and metabolic profile, thereby interrelating economic, material, and energy flows and producing indicators and indexes for (un)sustainability. Meanwhile, political ecology approaches ecological issues and socio-environmental conflicts based on the economic and power dynamics characterizing modern societies. Collective health and the discussions on health promotion can expand our understanding of territory, communities, and the role of science and institutions based on the contributions of political ecology and ecological economics in analyzing development models and the distributive and socio-environmental conflicts generated by them.

[The history of development of evolutionary methods in St. Petersburg school of computer simulation in biology].

PubMed

Menshutkin, V V; Kazanskiĭ, A B; Levchenko, V F

2010-01-01

The history of rise and development of evolutionary methods in Saint Petersburg school of biological modelling is traced and analyzed. Some pioneering works in simulation of ecological and evolutionary processes, performed in St.-Petersburg school became an exemplary ones for many followers in Russia and abroad. The individual-based approach became the crucial point in the history of the school as an adequate instrument for construction of models of biological evolution. This approach is natural for simulation of the evolution of life-history parameters and adaptive processes in populations and communities. In some cases simulated evolutionary process was used for solving a reverse problem, i. e., for estimation of uncertain life-history parameters of population. Evolutionary computations is one more aspect of this approach application in great many fields. The problems and vistas of ecological and evolutionary modelling in general are discussed.

Comparison of a species distribution model and a process model from a hierarchical perspective to quantify effects of projected climate change on tree species

Treesearch

Jeffrey E. Schneiderman; Hong S. He; Frank R. Thompson; William D. Dijak; Jacob S. Fraser

2015-01-01

Tree species distribution and abundance are affected by forces operating across a hierarchy of ecological scales. Process and species distribution models have been developed emphasizing forces at different scales. Understanding model agreement across hierarchical scales provides perspective on prediction uncertainty and ultimately enables policy makers and managers to...

Research on the energy and ecological efficiency of mechanical equipment remanufacturing systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shi, Junli; Cheng, Jinshi; Ma, Qinyi; Wang, Yajun

2017-08-01

According to the characteristics of mechanical equipment remanufacturing system, the dynamic performance of energy consumption and emission is explored, the equipment energy efficiency and emission analysis model is established firstly, and then energy and ecological efficiency analysis method of the remanufacturing system is put forward, at last, the energy and ecological efficiency of WD615.87 automotive diesel engine remanufacturing system as an example is analyzed, the way of energy efficiency improvementnt and environmental friendly mechanism of remanufacturing process is put forward.

Simulating Runoff from a Grid Based Mercury Model: Flow Comparisons

EPA Science Inventory

Several mercury cycling models, including general mass balance approaches, mixed-batch reactors in streams or lakes, or regional process-based models, exist to assess the ecological exposure risks associated with anthropogenically increased atmospheric mercury (Hg) deposition, so...

Inferring the relative resilience of alternative states

USGS Publications Warehouse

Angeler, David G.; Allen, Craig R.; Rojo, Carmen; Alvarez-Cobelas, Miguel; Rodrigo, Maria A.; Sanchez-Carrillo, Salvador

2013-01-01

Ecological systems may occur in alternative states that differ in ecological structures, functions and processes. Resilience is the measure of disturbance an ecological system can absorb before changing states. However, how the intrinsic structures and processes of systems that characterize their states affects their resilience remains unclear. We analyzed time series of phytoplankton communities at three sites in a floodplain in central Spain to assess the dominant frequencies or “temporal scales” in community dynamics and compared the patterns between a wet and a dry alternative state. The identified frequencies and cross-scale structures are expected to arise from positive feedbacks that are thought to reinforce processes in alternative states of ecological systems and regulate emergent phenomena such as resilience. Our analyses show a higher species richness and diversity but lower evenness in the dry state. Time series modeling revealed a decrease in the importance of short-term variability in the communities, suggesting that community dynamics slowed down in the dry relative to the wet state. The number of temporal scales at which community dynamics manifested, and the explanatory power of time series models, was lower in the dry state. The higher diversity, reduced number of temporal scales and the lower explanatory power of time series models suggest that species dynamics tended to be more stochastic in the dry state. From a resilience perspective our results highlight a paradox: increasing species richness may not necessarily enhance resilience. The loss of cross-scale structure (i.e. the lower number of temporal scales) in community dynamics across sites suggests that resilience erodes during drought. Phytoplankton communities in the dry state are therefore likely less resilient than in the wet state. Our case study demonstrates the potential of time series modeling to assess attributes that mediate resilience. The approach is useful for assessing resilience of alternative states across ecological and other complex systems.

[Ecological vulnerability of coal mining area: a case study of Shengli Coalfield in Xilinguole of Inner Mongolia, China].

PubMed

Quan, Zhan-Jun; Li, Yuan; Li, Jun-Sheng; Han, Yu; Xiao, Neng-Wen; Fu, Meng-Di

2013-06-01

In this paper, an ecological vulnerability evaluation index system for the Shengli Coalfield in Xilinguole of Inner Mongolia was established, which included 16 factors in ecological sensitivity, natural and social pressure, and ecological recovery capacity, respectively. Based on the expert scoring method and analytic hierarchy process (AHP), an ecological vulnerability model was built for the calculation of the regional ecological vulnerability by means of RS and GIS spatial analysis. An analysis of the relationships between land use and ecological vulnerability was also made, and the results were tested by spatial auto-correlation analysis. Overall, the ecological vulnerability of the study area was at medium-high level. The exploitation of four opencast areas in the Coalfield caused a significant increase of ecological vulnerability. Moreover, due to the effects of mine drained water and human activities, the 300 -2000 m around the opencast areas was turning into higher ecologically fragile area. With further exploitation, the whole Coalfield was evolved into moderate and heavy ecological vulnerability area, and the coal resources mining was a key factor in this process. The cluster analysis showed that the spatial distribution of the ecological vulnerability in the study area had reasonable clustering characteristics. To decrease the population density, control the grazing capacity of grassland, and regulate the ratios of construction land and cultivated land could be the optimal ways for resolving the natural and social pressure, and to increase the investment and improve the vegetation recovery coefficient could be the fundamental measures for decreasing the ecological vulnerability of the study area.

Evidence for determinism in species diversification and contingency in phenotypic evolution during adaptive radiation.

PubMed

Burbrink, Frank T; Chen, Xin; Myers, Edward A; Brandley, Matthew C; Pyron, R Alexander

2012-12-07

Adaptive radiation (AR) theory predicts that groups sharing the same source of ecological opportunity (EO) will experience deterministic species diversification and morphological evolution. Thus, deterministic ecological and morphological evolution should be correlated with deterministic patterns in the tempo and mode of speciation for groups in similar habitats and time periods. We test this hypothesis using well-sampled phylogenies of four squamate groups that colonized the New World (NW) in the Late Oligocene. We use both standard and coalescent models to assess species diversification, as well as likelihood models to examine morphological evolution. All squamate groups show similar early pulses of speciation, as well as diversity-dependent ecological limits on clade size at a continental scale. In contrast, processes of morphological evolution are not easily predictable and do not show similar pulses of early and rapid change. Patterns of morphological and species diversification thus appear uncoupled across these groups. This indicates that the processes that drive diversification and disparification are not mechanistically linked, even among similar groups of taxa experiencing the same sources of EO. It also suggests that processes of phenotypic diversification cannot be predicted solely from the existence of an AR or knowledge of the process of diversification.

Evidence for determinism in species diversification and contingency in phenotypic evolution during adaptive radiation

PubMed Central

Burbrink, Frank T.; Chen, Xin; Myers, Edward A.; Brandley, Matthew C.; Pyron, R. Alexander

2012-01-01

Adaptive radiation (AR) theory predicts that groups sharing the same source of ecological opportunity (EO) will experience deterministic species diversification and morphological evolution. Thus, deterministic ecological and morphological evolution should be correlated with deterministic patterns in the tempo and mode of speciation for groups in similar habitats and time periods. We test this hypothesis using well-sampled phylogenies of four squamate groups that colonized the New World (NW) in the Late Oligocene. We use both standard and coalescent models to assess species diversification, as well as likelihood models to examine morphological evolution. All squamate groups show similar early pulses of speciation, as well as diversity-dependent ecological limits on clade size at a continental scale. In contrast, processes of morphological evolution are not easily predictable and do not show similar pulses of early and rapid change. Patterns of morphological and species diversification thus appear uncoupled across these groups. This indicates that the processes that drive diversification and disparification are not mechanistically linked, even among similar groups of taxa experiencing the same sources of EO. It also suggests that processes of phenotypic diversification cannot be predicted solely from the existence of an AR or knowledge of the process of diversification. PMID:23034709

Aboveground and belowground arthropods experience different relative influences of stochastic versus deterministic community assembly processes following disturbance

PubMed Central

Martinez, Alexander S.; Faist, Akasha M.

2016-01-01

Background Understanding patterns of biodiversity is a longstanding challenge in ecology. Similar to other biotic groups, arthropod community structure can be shaped by deterministic and stochastic processes, with limited understanding of what moderates the relative influence of these processes. Disturbances have been noted to alter the relative influence of deterministic and stochastic processes on community assembly in various study systems, implicating ecological disturbances as a potential moderator of these forces. Methods Using a disturbance gradient along a 5-year chronosequence of insect-induced tree mortality in a subalpine forest of the southern Rocky Mountains, Colorado, USA, we examined changes in community structure and relative influences of deterministic and stochastic processes in the assembly of aboveground (surface and litter-active species) and belowground (species active in organic and mineral soil layers) arthropod communities. Arthropods were sampled for all years of the chronosequence via pitfall traps (aboveground community) and modified Winkler funnels (belowground community) and sorted to morphospecies. Community structure of both communities were assessed via comparisons of morphospecies abundance, diversity, and composition. Assembly processes were inferred from a mixture of linear models and matrix correlations testing for community associations with environmental properties, and from null-deviation models comparing observed vs. expected levels of species turnover (Beta diversity) among samples. Results Tree mortality altered community structure in both aboveground and belowground arthropod communities, but null models suggested that aboveground communities experienced greater relative influences of deterministic processes, while the relative influence of stochastic processes increased for belowground communities. Additionally, Mantel tests and linear regression models revealed significant associations between the aboveground arthropod communities and vegetation and soil properties, but no significant association among belowground arthropod communities and environmental factors. Discussion Our results suggest context-dependent influences of stochastic and deterministic community assembly processes across different fractions of a spatially co-occurring ground-dwelling arthropod community following disturbance. This variation in assembly may be linked to contrasting ecological strategies and dispersal rates within above- and below-ground communities. Our findings add to a growing body of evidence indicating concurrent influences of stochastic and deterministic processes in community assembly, and highlight the need to consider potential variation across different fractions of biotic communities when testing community ecology theory and considering conservation strategies. PMID:27761333

An Integrated Framework for Process-Driven Model Construction in Disease Ecology and Animal Health

PubMed Central

Mancy, Rebecca; Brock, Patrick M.; Kao, Rowland R.

2017-01-01

Process models that focus on explicitly representing biological mechanisms are increasingly important in disease ecology and animal health research. However, the large number of process modelling approaches makes it difficult to decide which is most appropriate for a given disease system and research question. Here, we discuss different motivations for using process models and present an integrated conceptual analysis that can be used to guide the construction of infectious disease process models and comparisons between them. Our presentation complements existing work by clarifying the major differences between modelling approaches and their relationship with the biological characteristics of the epidemiological system. We first discuss distinct motivations for using process models in epidemiological research, identifying the key steps in model design and use associated with each. We then present a conceptual framework for guiding model construction and comparison, organised according to key aspects of epidemiological systems. Specifically, we discuss the number and type of disease states, whether to focus on individual hosts (e.g., cows) or groups of hosts (e.g., herds or farms), how space or host connectivity affect disease transmission, whether demographic and epidemiological processes are periodic or can occur at any time, and the extent to which stochasticity is important. We use foot-and-mouth disease and bovine tuberculosis in cattle to illustrate our discussion and support explanations of cases in which different models are used to address similar problems. The framework should help those constructing models to structure their approach to modelling decisions and facilitate comparisons between models in the literature. PMID:29021983

An Integrated Framework for Process-Driven Model Construction in Disease Ecology and Animal Health.

PubMed

Mancy, Rebecca; Brock, Patrick M; Kao, Rowland R

2017-01-01

Process models that focus on explicitly representing biological mechanisms are increasingly important in disease ecology and animal health research. However, the large number of process modelling approaches makes it difficult to decide which is most appropriate for a given disease system and research question. Here, we discuss different motivations for using process models and present an integrated conceptual analysis that can be used to guide the construction of infectious disease process models and comparisons between them. Our presentation complements existing work by clarifying the major differences between modelling approaches and their relationship with the biological characteristics of the epidemiological system. We first discuss distinct motivations for using process models in epidemiological research, identifying the key steps in model design and use associated with each. We then present a conceptual framework for guiding model construction and comparison, organised according to key aspects of epidemiological systems. Specifically, we discuss the number and type of disease states, whether to focus on individual hosts (e.g., cows) or groups of hosts (e.g., herds or farms), how space or host connectivity affect disease transmission, whether demographic and epidemiological processes are periodic or can occur at any time, and the extent to which stochasticity is important. We use foot-and-mouth disease and bovine tuberculosis in cattle to illustrate our discussion and support explanations of cases in which different models are used to address similar problems. The framework should help those constructing models to structure their approach to modelling decisions and facilitate comparisons between models in the literature.

[Regional ecological construction and mission of landscape ecology].

PubMed

Xiao, Duning; Xie, Fuju; Wei, Jianbing

2004-10-01

The eco-construction on regional and landscape scale is the one which can be used to specific landscape and intercrossing ecosystem in specific region including performing scientific administration of ecosystem and optimizing environmental function. Recently, the government has taken a series of significant projects into action, such as national forest protection item, partly forest restoration, and adjustment of water, etc. Enforcing regional eco-construction and maintaining the ecology security of the nation have become the strategic requisition. In various regions, different eco-construction should be applied, for example, performing ecological safeguard measure in ecological sensitive zone, accommodating the ecological load in ecological fragile zone, etc., which can control the activities of human being, so that, sustainable development can be reached. Facing opportunity and challenge in the development of landscape ecology, we have some key topics: landscape pattern of ecological security, land use and ecological process, landscape changes under human activity stress, quantitative evaluation of the influence on human being activities, evaluation of zonal ecological security and advance warning of ecological risk, and planning and optimizing of model in landscape eco-construction.

Using an ecological ethics framework to make decisions about the relocation of wildlife

USGS Publications Warehouse

McCoy, E.D.; Berry, K.

2008-01-01

Relocation is an increasingly prominent conservation tool for a variety of wildlife, but the technique also is controversial, even among conservation practitioners. An organized framework for addressing the moral dilemmas often accompanying conservation actions such as relocation has been lacking. Ecological ethics may provide such a framework and appears to be an important step forward in aiding ecological researchers and biodiversity managers to make difficult moral choices. A specific application of this framework can make the reasoning process more transparent and give more emphasis to the strong sentiments about non-human organisms held by many potential users. Providing an example of the application of the framework may also increase the appeal of the reasoning process to ecological researchers and biodiversity managers. Relocation as a conservation action can be accompanied by a variety of moral dilemmas that reflect the interconnection of values, ethical positions, and conservation decisions. A model that is designed to address moral dilemmas arising from relocation of humans provides/demonstrates/illustrates a possible way to apply the ecological ethics framework and to involve practicing conservationists in the overall decision-making process. ?? 2008 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

A Carbon Cycle Model for the Social-Ecological Process in Coastal Wetland: A Case Study on Gouqi Island, East China

PubMed Central

Xiong, Lihu; Zhu, Wenjia

2017-01-01

Coastal wetlands offer many important ecosystem services both in natural and in social systems. How to simultaneously decrease the destructive effects flowing from human activities and maintaining the sustainability of regional wetland ecosystems are an important issue for coastal wetlands zones. We use carbon credits as the basis for regional sustainable developing policy-making. With the case of Gouqi Island, a typical coastal wetlands zone that locates in the East China Sea, a carbon cycle model was developed to illustrate the complex social-ecological processes. Carbon-related processes in natural ecosystem, primary industry, secondary industry, tertiary industry, and residents on the island were identified in the model. The model showed that 36780 tons of carbon is released to atmosphere with the form of CO2, and 51240 tons of carbon is captured by the ecosystem in 2014 and the three major resources of carbon emission are transportation and tourism development and seawater desalination. Based on the carbon-related processes and carbon balance, we proposed suggestions on the sustainable development strategy of Gouqi Island as coastal wetlands zone. PMID:28286690

A Carbon Cycle Model for the Social-Ecological Process in Coastal Wetland: A Case Study on Gouqi Island, East China.

PubMed

Li, Yanxia; Xiong, Lihu; Zhu, Wenjia

2017-01-01

Coastal wetlands offer many important ecosystem services both in natural and in social systems. How to simultaneously decrease the destructive effects flowing from human activities and maintaining the sustainability of regional wetland ecosystems are an important issue for coastal wetlands zones. We use carbon credits as the basis for regional sustainable developing policy-making. With the case of Gouqi Island, a typical coastal wetlands zone that locates in the East China Sea, a carbon cycle model was developed to illustrate the complex social-ecological processes. Carbon-related processes in natural ecosystem, primary industry, secondary industry, tertiary industry, and residents on the island were identified in the model. The model showed that 36780 tons of carbon is released to atmosphere with the form of CO 2 , and 51240 tons of carbon is captured by the ecosystem in 2014 and the three major resources of carbon emission are transportation and tourism development and seawater desalination. Based on the carbon-related processes and carbon balance, we proposed suggestions on the sustainable development strategy of Gouqi Island as coastal wetlands zone.

Reinterpreting maximum entropy in ecology: a null hypothesis constrained by ecological mechanism.

PubMed

O'Dwyer, James P; Rominger, Andrew; Xiao, Xiao

2017-07-01

Simplified mechanistic models in ecology have been criticised for the fact that a good fit to data does not imply the mechanism is true: pattern does not equal process. In parallel, the maximum entropy principle (MaxEnt) has been applied in ecology to make predictions constrained by just a handful of state variables, like total abundance or species richness. But an outstanding question remains: what principle tells us which state variables to constrain? Here we attempt to solve both problems simultaneously, by translating a given set of mechanisms into the state variables to be used in MaxEnt, and then using this MaxEnt theory as a null model against which to compare mechanistic predictions. In particular, we identify the sufficient statistics needed to parametrise a given mechanistic model from data and use them as MaxEnt constraints. Our approach isolates exactly what mechanism is telling us over and above the state variables alone. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Predicting ecological responses in a changing ocean: the effects of future climate uncertainty.

PubMed

Freer, Jennifer J; Partridge, Julian C; Tarling, Geraint A; Collins, Martin A; Genner, Martin J

2018-01-01

Predicting how species will respond to climate change is a growing field in marine ecology, yet knowledge of how to incorporate the uncertainty from future climate data into these predictions remains a significant challenge. To help overcome it, this review separates climate uncertainty into its three components (scenario uncertainty, model uncertainty, and internal model variability) and identifies four criteria that constitute a thorough interpretation of an ecological response to climate change in relation to these parts (awareness, access, incorporation, communication). Through a literature review, the extent to which the marine ecology community has addressed these criteria in their predictions was assessed. Despite a high awareness of climate uncertainty, articles favoured the most severe emission scenario, and only a subset of climate models were used as input into ecological analyses. In the case of sea surface temperature, these models can have projections unrepresentative against a larger ensemble mean. Moreover, 91% of studies failed to incorporate the internal variability of a climate model into results. We explored the influence that the choice of emission scenario, climate model, and model realisation can have when predicting the future distribution of the pelagic fish, Electrona antarctica . Future distributions were highly influenced by the choice of climate model, and in some cases, internal variability was important in determining the direction and severity of the distribution change. Increased clarity and availability of processed climate data would facilitate more comprehensive explorations of climate uncertainty, and increase in the quality and standard of marine prediction studies.

Parallel selective pressures drive convergent diversification of phenotypes in pythons and boas.

PubMed

Esquerré, Damien; Scott Keogh, J

2016-07-01

Pythons and boas are globally distributed and distantly related radiations with remarkable phenotypic and ecological diversity. We tested whether pythons, boas and their relatives have evolved convergent phenotypes when they display similar ecology. We collected geometric morphometric data on head shape for 1073 specimens representing over 80% of species. We show that these two groups display strong and widespread convergence when they occupy equivalent ecological niches and that the history of phenotypic evolution strongly matches the history of ecological diversification, suggesting that both processes are strongly coupled. These results are consistent with replicated adaptive radiation in both groups. We argue that strong selective pressures related to habitat-use have driven this convergence. Pythons and boas provide a new model system for the study of macro-evolutionary patterns of morphological and ecological evolution and they do so at a deeper level of divergence and global scale than any well-established adaptive radiation model systems. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

The Population Ecology of Technology: An Empirical Study of US Biotechnology Patents from 1976 to 2003

PubMed Central

van den Oord, Ad; van Witteloostuijn, Arjen

2017-01-01

A detailed understanding of technological change as an evolutionary process is currently not well understood. To increase our understanding, we build upon theory from organizational ecology to develop a model of endogenous technological growth and determine to what extent the pattern of technological growth can be attributed to the structural or systemic characteristics of the technology itself. Through an empirical investigation of patent data in the biotechnology industry from 1976 to 2003, we find that a technology’s internal (i.e., density and diversity) ecological characteristics have a positive effect on its growth rate. The niche’s external characteristics of crowding and status have a negative effect on its growth rate. Hence, applying theory from organizational ecology increases our understanding of technological change as an evolutionary process. We discuss the implications of our findings for the study of technological growth and evolution, and suggest avenues for further research. PMID:28081570

The Population Ecology of Technology: An Empirical Study of US Biotechnology Patents from 1976 to 2003.

PubMed

van den Oord, Ad; van Witteloostuijn, Arjen

2017-01-01

A detailed understanding of technological change as an evolutionary process is currently not well understood. To increase our understanding, we build upon theory from organizational ecology to develop a model of endogenous technological growth and determine to what extent the pattern of technological growth can be attributed to the structural or systemic characteristics of the technology itself. Through an empirical investigation of patent data in the biotechnology industry from 1976 to 2003, we find that a technology's internal (i.e., density and diversity) ecological characteristics have a positive effect on its growth rate. The niche's external characteristics of crowding and status have a negative effect on its growth rate. Hence, applying theory from organizational ecology increases our understanding of technological change as an evolutionary process. We discuss the implications of our findings for the study of technological growth and evolution, and suggest avenues for further research.

An ecological model using promotores de salud to prevent cardiovascular disease on the US-Mexico border: the HEART project.

PubMed

Balcázar, Hector; Wise, Sherrie; Rosenthal, E Lee; Ochoa, Cecilia; Rodriguez, Jose; Hastings, Diana; Flores, Leticia; Hernandez, Lorraine; Duarte-Gardea, Maria

2012-01-01

To address cardiovascular disease risk factors among Hispanics, a community model of prevention requires a comprehensive approach to community engagement. The objectives of our intervention were to reduce cardiovascular disease risk factors in Hispanics living in 2 low-income areas of El Paso, Texas, and to engage the community in a physical activity and nutrition intervention. Drawing on lessons learned in phase 1 (years 2005-2008) of the HEART Project, we used an iterative, community-based process to develop an intervention based on an ecological framework. New community partners were introduced and community health workers delivered several elements of the intervention, including the curriculum entitled "Mi Corazón, Mi Comunidad" ("MiCMiC" [My Heart, My Community]). We received feedback from the project's Community Health Academy and Leadership Council throughout the development process and established a policy agenda that promotes integration of community health workers into the local and state workforce. Collaboration with 2 new community partners, the YWCA and the Department of Parks and Recreation, were instrumental in the process of community-based participatory research. We enrolled 113 participants in the first cohort; 78% were female, and the mean age was 41 years. More than 50% reported having no health insurance coverage. Seventy-two (60%) participants attended 1 or more promotora-led Su Corazón, Su Vida sessions, and 74 (62%) participants attended 1 or more of the 15 exercise classes. HEART phase 2 includes a multilevel ecological model to address cardiovascular disease risk among Hispanics. Future similarly targeted initiatives can benefit from an ecological approach that also embraces the promotora model.

Applications of genetic data to improve management and conservation of river fishes and their habitats

USGS Publications Warehouse

Scribner, Kim T.; Lowe, Winsor H.; Landguth, Erin L.; Luikart, Gordon; Infante, Dana M.; Whelan, Gary; Muhlfeld, Clint C.

2015-01-01

Environmental variation and landscape features affect ecological processes in fluvial systems; however, assessing effects at management-relevant temporal and spatial scales is challenging. Genetic data can be used with landscape models and traditional ecological assessment data to identify biodiversity hotspots, predict ecosystem responses to anthropogenic effects, and detect impairments to underlying processes. We show that by combining taxonomic, demographic, and genetic data of species in complex riverscapes, managers can better understand the spatial and temporal scales over which environmental processes and disturbance influence biodiversity. We describe how population genetic models using empirical or simulated genetic data quantify effects of environmental processes affecting species diversity and distribution. Our summary shows that aquatic assessment initiatives that use standardized data sets to direct management actions can benefit from integration of genetic data to improve the predictability of disturbance–response relationships of river fishes and their habitats over a broad range of spatial and temporal scales.

The ecological virus.

PubMed

O'Malley, Maureen A

2016-10-01

Ecology is usually described as the study of organisms interacting with one another and their environments. From this view of ecology, viruses - not usually considered to be organisms - would merely be part of the environment. Since the late 1980s, however, a growing stream of micrographic, experimental, molecular, and model-based (theoretical) research has been investigating how and why viruses should be understood as ecological actors of the most important sort. Viruses, especially phage, have been revealed as participants in the planet's most crucial food webs, even though viruses technically consume nothing (they do not metabolize by themselves). Even more impressively, viruses have been identified as regulators of planetary biogeochemistry, in which they control cycles such as carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus - cycles on which all life depends. Although much biogeochemical research black-boxes the entities filling functional roles, it is useful to focus a little more closely to understand how viruses can be held responsible for the global processes of life. This paper will give a brief overview of the history of virus ecology and tease out the implications of large-scale ecological modelling with viruses. This analysis suggests that viruses should be conceptualized as ecological actors that are at least comparable and possibly equal to organismal actors. Ecological agency can therefore be distinguished from standard interpretations of biological agency. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

[Coupling coordinated development of ecological-economic system in Loess Plateau].

PubMed

Zhang, Qing-Feng; Wu, Fa-Qi; Wang, Li; Wang, Jian

2011-06-01

Based on system theory, a coupling coordinated development model of ecological-economic system in Loess Plateau was established, and the evaluation criteria and basic types of the coordinated development of the ecological-economic system were proposed. The county-level coupling coordinated development of the ecological-economic system was also discussed, based on the local characteristics. The interactions between the ecological and economic systems in Loess Plateau could be divided into four stages, i.e., seriously disordered development stage, mild-disordered development stage, low-level coordinated development stage, and high level well-coordinated development stage. At each stage, there existed a cyclic process of profit and loss-antagonist-running-dominant-synchronous development. The coupling development degree of the ecological-economic system in Loess Plateau was overall at a lower level, being about 62.7% of the counties at serious disorder, 30.1% of the counties at mild disorder, and 7.1% of the counties at low but coordinated level. The coupling development degree based on the model established in this study could better reflect the current social-economic and ecological environment situations, especially the status of coordination. To fully understand the coupling of ecological-economic system and to adopt appropriate development mode would be of significance to promote the county-level coordinated development in Loess Plateau.

Ecological risk assessment of depleted uranium in the environment at Aberdeen Proving Ground

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Clements, W.H.; Kennedy, P.L.; Myers, O.B.

1993-01-01

A preliminary ecological risk assessment was conducted to evaluate the effects of depleted uranium (DU) in the Aberdeen Proving Ground (APG) ecosystem and its potential for human health effects. An ecological risk assessment of DU should include the processes of hazard identification, dose-response assessment, exposure assessment, and risk characterization. Ecological risk assessments also should explicitly examine risks incurred by nonhuman as well as human populations, because risk assessments based only on human health do not always protect other species. To begin to assess the potential ecological risk of DU release to the environment we modeled DU transport through the principalmore » components of the aquatic ecosystem at APG. We focused on the APG aquatic system because of the close proximity of the Chesapeake Bay and concerns about potential impacts on this ecosystem. Our objective in using a model to estimate environmental fate of DU is to ultimately reduce the uncertainty about predicted ecological risks due to DU from APG. The model functions to summarize information on the structure and functional properties of the APG aquatic system, to provide an exposure assessment by estimating the fate of DU in the environment, and to evaluate the sources of uncertainty about DU transport.« less

Ecological risk assessment of depleted uranium in the environment at Aberdeen Proving Ground. Annual report, 1991

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Clements, W.H.; Kennedy, P.L.; Myers, O.B.

1993-03-01

A preliminary ecological risk assessment was conducted to evaluate the effects of depleted uranium (DU) in the Aberdeen Proving Ground (APG) ecosystem and its potential for human health effects. An ecological risk assessment of DU should include the processes of hazard identification, dose-response assessment, exposure assessment, and risk characterization. Ecological risk assessments also should explicitly examine risks incurred by nonhuman as well as human populations, because risk assessments based only on human health do not always protect other species. To begin to assess the potential ecological risk of DU release to the environment we modeled DU transport through the principalmore » components of the aquatic ecosystem at APG. We focused on the APG aquatic system because of the close proximity of the Chesapeake Bay and concerns about potential impacts on this ecosystem. Our objective in using a model to estimate environmental fate of DU is to ultimately reduce the uncertainty about predicted ecological risks due to DU from APG. The model functions to summarize information on the structure and functional properties of the APG aquatic system, to provide an exposure assessment by estimating the fate of DU in the environment, and to evaluate the sources of uncertainty about DU transport.« less

[Identification of ecological corridors and its importance by integrating circuit theory].

PubMed

Song, Li Li; Qin, Ming Zhou

2016-10-01

Landscape connectivity is considered as an extraordinarily important factor affecting various ecological processes. The least cost path (LCP) on the basis of minimum cumulative resis-tance model (MCRM) may provide a more efficient approach to identify functional connectivity in heterogeneous landscapes, and is already adopted by the research of landscape functional connecti-vity assessment and ecological corridor simulation. Connectivity model on circuit theory (CMCT) replaced the edges in the graph theory with resistors, cost distance with resistance distance to measure the functional connectivity in heterogeneous landscapes. By means of Linkage Mapper tool and Circuitscape software, the simulated landscape generated from SIMMAP 2.0 software was viewed as the study object in this article, aimed at exploring how to integrate MCRM with CMCT to identify ecological corridors and relative importance of landscape factors. The results showed that two models had their individual advantages and mutual complement. MCRM could effectively identify least cost corridors among habitats. CMCT could effectively identify important landscape factor and pinch point, which had important influence on landscape connectivity. We also found that the position of pinch point was not affected by corridor width, which had obvious advantage in the research of identifying the importance of corridors. The integrated method could provide certain scientific basis for regional ecological protection planning and ecological corridor design.

Stable isotope views on ecosystem function: challenging or challenged?

PubMed

Resco, Víctor; Querejeta, José I; Ogle, Kiona; Voltas, Jordi; Sebastià, Maria-Teresa; Serrano-Ortiz, Penélope; Linares, Juan C; Moreno-Gutiérrez, Cristina; Herrero, Asier; Carreira, José A; Torres-Cañabate, Patricia; Valladares, Fernando

2010-06-23

Stable isotopes and their potential for detecting various and complex ecosystem processes are attracting an increasing number of scientists. Progress is challenging, particularly under global change scenarios, but some established views have been challenged. The IX meeting of the Spanish Association of Terrestrial Ecology (AAET, Ubeda, 18-22 October 2009) hosted a symposium on the ecology of stable isotopes where the linear mixing model approach of partitioning sinks and sources of carbon and water fluxes within an ecosystem was challenged, and new applications of stable isotopes for the study of plant interactions were evaluated. Discussion was also centred on the need for networks that monitor ecological processes using stable isotopes and key ideas for fostering future research with isotopes.

Stable isotope views on ecosystem function: challenging or challenged?

PubMed Central

Resco, Víctor; Querejeta, José I.; Ogle, Kiona; Voltas, Jordi; Sebastià, Maria-Teresa; Serrano-Ortiz, Penélope; Linares, Juan C.; Moreno-Gutiérrez, Cristina; Herrero, Asier; Carreira, José A.; Torres-Cañabate, Patricia; Valladares, Fernando

2010-01-01

Stable isotopes and their potential for detecting various and complex ecosystem processes are attracting an increasing number of scientists. Progress is challenging, particularly under global change scenarios, but some established views have been challenged. The IX meeting of the Spanish Association of Terrestrial Ecology (AAET, Úbeda, 18–22 October 2009) hosted a symposium on the ecology of stable isotopes where the linear mixing model approach of partitioning sinks and sources of carbon and water fluxes within an ecosystem was challenged, and new applications of stable isotopes for the study of plant interactions were evaluated. Discussion was also centred on the need for networks that monitor ecological processes using stable isotopes and key ideas for fostering future research with isotopes. PMID:20015858

Advances in the hydrogeochemistry and microbiology of acid mine waters

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nordstrom, D. Kirk

2000-01-01

The last decade has witnessed a plethora of research related to the hydrogeochemistry and microbiology of acid mine waters and associated tailings and waste-rock waters. Numerous books, reviews, technical papers, and proceedings have been published that examine the complex bio-geochemical process of sulfide mineral oxidation, develop and apply geochemical models to site characterization, and characterize the microbial ecology of these environments. This review summarizes many of these recent works, and provides references for those investigating this field. Comparisons of measured versus calculated Eh and measured versus calculated pH for water samples from several field sites demonstrate the reliability of some current geochemical models for aqueous speciation and mass balances. Geochemical models are not, however, used to predict accurately time-dependent processes but to improve our understanding of these systems and to constrain possible processes that contribute to actual or potential water quality issues. Microbiological studies are demonstrating that there is much we have yet to learn about the types of different microorganisms and their function and ecology in mine-waste environments. A broad diversity of green algae, bacteria, archaea, yeasts, and fungi are encountered in acid mine waters, and a better understanding of their ecology and function may potentially enhance remediation possibilities as well as our understanding of the evolution of life.

Science You Can Use Bulletin: Wildfire triage: Targeting mitigation based on social, economic, and ecological values

Treesearch

Karl Malcolm; Matthew Thompson; Dave Calkin; Mark Finney; Alan Ager

2012-01-01

Evaluating the risks of wildfire relative to the valuable resources found in any managed landscape requires an interdisciplinary approach. Researchers at the Rocky Mountain Research Station and Western Wildland Threat Assessment Center developed such a process, using a combination of techniques rooted in fire modeling and ecology, economics, decision sciences, and the...

DEB modeling for nanotoxicology, microbial ecology, and environmental engineering. Comment on: ;Physics of metabolic organization; by Marko Jusup et al.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holden, Patricia A.

2017-03-01

Jusup et al. [1] appeal to mathematical physicists, and to biologists, by providing the theoretical basis for dynamic energy budget (DEB) modeling of individual organisms and populations, while emphasizing model simplicity, universality, and applicability to real world problems. Comments herein regard the disciplinary tensions proposed by the authors and suggest that-in addition to important applications in eco- and specifically nano-toxicology-there are opportunities for DEB frameworks to inform relative complexity in microbial ecological process modeling. This commentary also suggests another audience for bridging DEB theory and application-engineers solving environmental problems.

Design, development, and application of LANDIS-II, a spatial landscape simulation model with flexible temporal and spatial resolution

Treesearch

Robert M. Scheller; James B. Domingo; Brian R. Sturtevant; Jeremy S. Williams; Arnold Rudy; Eric J. Gustafson; David J. Mladenoff

2007-01-01

We introduce LANDIS-II, a landscape model designed to simulate forest succession and disturbances. LANDIS-II builds upon and preserves the functionality of previous LANDIS forest landscape simulation models. LANDIS-II is distinguished by the inclusion of variable time steps for different ecological processes; our use of a rigorous development and testing process used...

Data-model fusion to better understand emerging pathogens and improve infectious disease forecasting.

PubMed

LaDeau, Shannon L; Glass, Gregory E; Hobbs, N Thompson; Latimer, Andrew; Ostfeld, Richard S

2011-07-01

Ecologists worldwide are challenged to contribute solutions to urgent and pressing environmental problems by forecasting how populations, communities, and ecosystems will respond to global change. Rising to this challenge requires organizing ecological information derived from diverse sources and formally assimilating data with models of ecological processes. The study of infectious disease has depended on strategies for integrating patterns of observed disease incidence with mechanistic process models since John Snow first mapped cholera cases around a London water pump in 1854. Still, zoonotic and vector-borne diseases increasingly affect human populations, and methods used to successfully characterize directly transmitted diseases are often insufficient. We use four case studies to demonstrate that advances in disease forecasting require better understanding of zoonotic host and vector populations, as well of the dynamics that facilitate pathogen amplification and disease spillover into humans. In each case study, this goal is complicated by limited data, spatiotemporal variability in pathogen transmission and impact, and often, insufficient biological understanding. We present a conceptual framework for data-model fusion in infectious disease research that addresses these fundamental challenges using a hierarchical state-space structure to (1) integrate multiple data sources and spatial scales to inform latent parameters, (2) partition uncertainty in process and observation models, and (3) explicitly build upon existing ecological and epidemiological understanding. Given the constraints inherent in the study of infectious disease and the urgent need for progress, fusion of data and expertise via this type of conceptual framework should prove an indispensable tool.

Combining correlative and mechanistic habitat suitability models to improve ecological compensation.

PubMed

Meineri, Eric; Deville, Anne-Sophie; Grémillet, David; Gauthier-Clerc, Michel; Béchet, Arnaud

2015-02-01

Only a few studies have shown positive impacts of ecological compensation on species dynamics affected by human activities. We argue that this is due to inappropriate methods used to forecast required compensation in environmental impact assessments. These assessments are mostly descriptive and only valid at limited spatial and temporal scales. However, habitat suitability models developed to predict the impacts of environmental changes on potential species' distributions should provide rigorous science-based tools for compensation planning. Here we describe the two main classes of predictive models: correlative models and individual-based mechanistic models. We show how these models can be used alone or synoptically to improve compensation planning. While correlative models are easier to implement, they tend to ignore underlying ecological processes and lack accuracy. On the contrary, individual-based mechanistic models can integrate biological interactions, dispersal ability and adaptation. Moreover, among mechanistic models, those considering animal energy balance are particularly efficient at predicting the impact of foraging habitat loss. However, mechanistic models require more field data compared to correlative models. Hence we present two approaches which combine both methods for compensation planning, especially in relation to the spatial scale considered. We show how the availability of biological databases and software enabling fast and accurate population projections could be advantageously used to assess ecological compensation requirement efficiently in environmental impact assessments. © 2014 The Authors. Biological Reviews © 2014 Cambridge Philosophical Society.

Ecology and space: A case study in mapping harmful invasive species

USGS Publications Warehouse

David T. Barnett,; Jarnevich, Catherine S.; Chong, Geneva W.; Stohlgren, Thomas J.; Sunil Kumar,; Holcombe, Tracy R.; Brunn, Stanley D.; Dodge, Martin

2017-01-01

The establishment and invasion of non-native plant species have the ability to alter the composition of native species and functioning of ecological systems with financial costs resulting from mitigation and loss of ecological services. Spatially documenting invasions has applications for management and theory, but the utility of maps is challenged by availability and uncertainty of data, and the reliability of extrapolating mapped data in time and space. The extent and resolution of projections also impact the ability to inform invasive species science and management. Early invasive species maps were coarse-grained representations that underscored the phenomena, but had limited capacity to direct management aside from development of watch lists for priorities for prevention and containment. Integrating mapped data sets with fine-resolution environmental variables in the context of species-distribution models allows a description of species-environment relationships and an understanding of how, why, and where invasions may occur. As with maps, the extent and resolution of models impact the resulting insight. Models of cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum) across a variety of spatial scales and grain result in divergent species-environment relationships. New data can improve models and efficiently direct further inventories. Mapping can target areas of greater model uncertainty or the bounds of modeled distribution to efficiently refine models and maps. This iterative process results in dynamic, living maps capable of describing the ongoing process of species invasions.

Neutral theory and the species abundance distribution: recent developments and prospects for unifying niche and neutral perspectives

PubMed Central

Matthews, Thomas J; Whittaker, Robert J

2014-01-01

Published in 2001, The Unified Neutral Theory of Biodiversity and Biogeography (UNTB) emphasizes the importance of stochastic processes in ecological community structure, and has challenged the traditional niche-based view of ecology. While neutral models have since been applied to a broad range of ecological and macroecological phenomena, the majority of research relating to neutral theory has focused exclusively on the species abundance distribution (SAD). Here, we synthesize the large body of work on neutral theory in the context of the species abundance distribution, with a particular focus on integrating ideas from neutral theory with traditional niche theory. First, we summarize the basic tenets of neutral theory; both in general and in the context of SADs. Second, we explore the issues associated with neutral theory and the SAD, such as complications with fitting and model comparison, the underlying assumptions of neutral models, and the difficultly of linking pattern to process. Third, we highlight the advances in understanding of SADs that have resulted from neutral theory and models. Finally, we focus consideration on recent developments aimed at unifying neutral- and niche-based approaches to ecology, with a particular emphasis on what this means for SAD theory, embracing, for instance, ideas of emergent neutrality and stochastic niche theory. We put forward the argument that the prospect of the unification of niche and neutral perspectives represents one of the most promising future avenues of neutral theory research. PMID:25360266

Neutral theory and the species abundance distribution: recent developments and prospects for unifying niche and neutral perspectives.

PubMed

Matthews, Thomas J; Whittaker, Robert J

2014-06-01

Published in 2001, The Unified Neutral Theory of Biodiversity and Biogeography (UNTB) emphasizes the importance of stochastic processes in ecological community structure, and has challenged the traditional niche-based view of ecology. While neutral models have since been applied to a broad range of ecological and macroecological phenomena, the majority of research relating to neutral theory has focused exclusively on the species abundance distribution (SAD). Here, we synthesize the large body of work on neutral theory in the context of the species abundance distribution, with a particular focus on integrating ideas from neutral theory with traditional niche theory. First, we summarize the basic tenets of neutral theory; both in general and in the context of SADs. Second, we explore the issues associated with neutral theory and the SAD, such as complications with fitting and model comparison, the underlying assumptions of neutral models, and the difficultly of linking pattern to process. Third, we highlight the advances in understanding of SADs that have resulted from neutral theory and models. Finally, we focus consideration on recent developments aimed at unifying neutral- and niche-based approaches to ecology, with a particular emphasis on what this means for SAD theory, embracing, for instance, ideas of emergent neutrality and stochastic niche theory. We put forward the argument that the prospect of the unification of niche and neutral perspectives represents one of the most promising future avenues of neutral theory research.

Treatment of CELSS and PCELSS waste to produce nutrients for plant growth. [Controlled Ecological Life Support Systems and Partially Controlled Ecological Life Support Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Modell, M.; Meissner, H.; Karel, M.; Carden, J.; Lewis, S.

1981-01-01

The research program entitled 'Development of a Prototype Experiment for Treating CELSS (Controlled Ecological Life Support Systems) and PCELSS (Partially Controlled Ecological Life Support Systems) Wastes to Produce Nutrients for Plant Growth' consists of two phases: (1) the development of the neccessary facilities, chemical methodologies and models for meaningful experimentation, and (2) the application of what methods and devices are developed to the interfacing of waste oxidation with plant growth. Homogeneous samples of freeze-dried human feces and urine have been prepared to ensure comparability of test results between CELSS waste treatment research groups. A model of PCELSS food processing wastes has been developed, and an automated gas chromatographic system to analyze oxidizer effluents was designed and brought to operational status. Attention is given the component configuration of the wet oxidation system used by the studies.

A trait-based test for habitat filtering: Convex hull volume

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cornwell, W.K.; Schwilk, D.W.; Ackerly, D.D.

2006-01-01

Community assembly theory suggests that two processes affect the distribution of trait values within communities: competition and habitat filtering. Within a local community, competition leads to ecological differentiation of coexisting species, while habitat filtering reduces the spread of trait values, reflecting shared ecological tolerances. Many statistical tests for the effects of competition exist in the literature, but measures of habitat filtering are less well-developed. Here, we present convex hull volume, a construct from computational geometry, which provides an n-dimensional measure of the volume of trait space occupied by species in a community. Combined with ecological null models, this measure offers a useful test for habitat filtering. We use convex hull volume and a null model to analyze California woody-plant trait and community data. Our results show that observed plant communities occupy less trait space than expected from random assembly, a result consistent with habitat filtering. ?? 2006 by the Ecological Society of America.

Cost-Sharing of Ecological Construction Based on Trapezoidal Intuitionistic Fuzzy Cooperative Games.

PubMed

Liu, Jiacai; Zhao, Wenjian

2016-11-08

There exist some fuzziness and uncertainty in the process of ecological construction. The aim of this paper is to develop a direct and an effective simplified method for obtaining the cost-sharing scheme when some interested parties form a cooperative coalition to improve the ecological environment of Min River together. Firstly, we propose the solution concept of the least square prenucleolus of cooperative games with coalition values expressed by trapezoidal intuitionistic fuzzy numbers. Then, based on the square of the distance in the numerical value between two trapezoidal intuitionistic fuzzy numbers, we establish a corresponding quadratic programming model to obtain the least square prenucleolus, which can effectively avoid the information distortion and uncertainty enlargement brought about by the subtraction of trapezoidal intuitionistic fuzzy numbers. Finally, we give a numerical example about the cost-sharing of ecological construction in Fujian Province in China to show the validity, applicability, and advantages of the proposed model and method.

State-space models’ dirty little secrets: even simple linear Gaussian models can have estimation problems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Auger-Méthé, Marie; Field, Chris; Albertsen, Christoffer M.; Derocher, Andrew E.; Lewis, Mark A.; Jonsen, Ian D.; Mills Flemming, Joanna

2016-05-01

State-space models (SSMs) are increasingly used in ecology to model time-series such as animal movement paths and population dynamics. This type of hierarchical model is often structured to account for two levels of variability: biological stochasticity and measurement error. SSMs are flexible. They can model linear and nonlinear processes using a variety of statistical distributions. Recent ecological SSMs are often complex, with a large number of parameters to estimate. Through a simulation study, we show that even simple linear Gaussian SSMs can suffer from parameter- and state-estimation problems. We demonstrate that these problems occur primarily when measurement error is larger than biological stochasticity, the condition that often drives ecologists to use SSMs. Using an animal movement example, we show how these estimation problems can affect ecological inference. Biased parameter estimates of a SSM describing the movement of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) result in overestimating their energy expenditure. We suggest potential solutions, but show that it often remains difficult to estimate parameters. While SSMs are powerful tools, they can give misleading results and we urge ecologists to assess whether the parameters can be estimated accurately before drawing ecological conclusions from their results.

Understanding Host-Switching by Ecological Fitting

PubMed Central

Araujo, Sabrina B. L.; Braga, Mariana Pires; Brooks, Daniel R.; Agosta, Salvatore J.; Hoberg, Eric P.; von Hartenthal, Francisco W.; Boeger, Walter A.

2015-01-01

Despite the fact that parasites are highly specialized with respect to their hosts, empirical evidence demonstrates that host switching rather than co-speciation is the dominant factor influencing the diversification of host-parasite associations. Ecological fitting in sloppy fitness space has been proposed as a mechanism allowing ecological specialists to host-switch readily. That proposal is tested herein using an individual-based model of host switching. The model considers a parasite species exposed to multiple host resources. Through time host range expansion can occur readily without the prior evolution of novel genetic capacities. It also produces non-linear variation in the size of the fitness space. The capacity for host colonization is strongly influenced by propagule pressure early in the process and by the size of the fitness space later. The simulations suggest that co-adaptation may be initiated by the temporary loss of less fit phenotypes. Further, parasites can persist for extended periods in sub-optimal hosts, and thus may colonize distantly related hosts by a "stepping-stone" process. PMID:26431199

Comparing spatially explicit ecological and social values for natural areas to identify effective conservation strategies.

PubMed

Bryan, Brett Anthony; Raymond, Christopher Mark; Crossman, Neville David; King, Darran

2011-02-01

Consideration of the social values people assign to relatively undisturbed native ecosystems is critical for the success of science-based conservation plans. We used an interview process to identify and map social values assigned to 31 ecosystem services provided by natural areas in an agricultural landscape in southern Australia. We then modeled the spatial distribution of 12 components of ecological value commonly used in setting spatial conservation priorities. We used the analytical hierarchy process to weight these components and used multiattribute utility theory to combine them into a single spatial layer of ecological value. Social values assigned to natural areas were negatively correlated with ecological values overall, but were positively correlated with some components of ecological value. In terms of the spatial distribution of values, people valued protected areas, whereas those natural areas underrepresented in the reserve system were of higher ecological value. The habitats of threatened animal species were assigned both high ecological value and high social value. Only small areas were assigned both high ecological value and high social value in the study area, whereas large areas of high ecological value were of low social value, and vice versa. We used the assigned ecological and social values to identify different conservation strategies (e.g., information sharing, community engagement, incentive payments) that may be effective for specific areas. We suggest that consideration of both ecological and social values in selection of conservation strategies can enhance the success of science-based conservation planning. ©2010 Society for Conservation Biology.

Comparative analysis of remotely-sensed data products via ecological niche modeling of avian influenza case occurrences in Middle Eastern poultry.

PubMed

Bodbyl-Roels, Sarah; Peterson, A Townsend; Xiao, Xiangming

2011-03-28

Ecological niche modeling integrates known sites of occurrence of species or phenomena with data on environmental variation across landscapes to infer environmental spaces potentially inhabited (i.e., the ecological niche) to generate predictive maps of potential distributions in geographic space. Key inputs to this process include raster data layers characterizing spatial variation in environmental parameters, such as vegetation indices from remotely sensed satellite imagery. The extent to which ecological niche models reflect real-world distributions depends on a number of factors, but an obvious concern is the quality and content of the environmental data layers. We assessed ecological niche model predictions of H5N1 avian flu presence quantitatively within and among four geographic regions, based on models incorporating two means of summarizing three vegetation indices derived from the MODIS satellite. We evaluated our models for predictive ability using partial ROC analysis and GLM ANOVA to compare performance among indices and regions. We found correlations between vegetation indices to be high, such that they contain information that overlaps broadly. Neither the type of vegetation index used nor method of summary affected model performance significantly. However, the degree to which model predictions had to be transferred (i.e., projected onto landscapes and conditions not represented on the landscape of training) impacted predictive strength greatly (within-region model predictions far out-performed models projected among regions). Our results provide the first quantitative tests of most appropriate uses of different remotely sensed data sets in ecological niche modeling applications. While our testing did not result in a decisive "best" index product or means of summarizing indices, it emphasizes the need for careful evaluation of products used in modeling (e.g. matching temporal dimensions and spatial resolution) for optimum performance, instead of simple reliance on large numbers of data layers.

Downscaling future climate scenarios to fine scales for hydrologic and ecological modeling and analysis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Flint, Lorraine E.; Flint, Alan L.

2012-01-01

The methodology, which includes a sequence of rigorous analyses and calculations, is intended to reduce the addition of uncertainty to the climate data as a result of the downscaling while providing the fine-scale climate information necessary for ecological analyses. It results in new but consistent data sets for the US at 4 km, the southwest US at 270 m, and California at 90 m and illustrates the utility of fine-scale downscaling to analyses of ecological processes influenced by topographic complexity.

A probabilistic process model for pelagic marine ecosystems informed by Bayesian inverse analysis

EPA Science Inventory

Marine ecosystems are complex systems with multiple pathways that produce feedback cycles, which may lead to unanticipated effects. Models abstract this complexity and allow us to predict, understand, and hypothesize. In ecological models, however, the paucity of empirical data...

[Temporal and spatial heterogeneity analysis of optimal value of sensitive parameters in ecological process model: The BIOME-BGC model as an example.

PubMed

Li, Yi Zhe; Zhang, Ting Long; Liu, Qiu Yu; Li, Ying

2018-01-01

The ecological process models are powerful tools for studying terrestrial ecosystem water and carbon cycle at present. However, there are many parameters for these models, and weather the reasonable values of these parameters were taken, have important impact on the models simulation results. In the past, the sensitivity and the optimization of model parameters were analyzed and discussed in many researches. But the temporal and spatial heterogeneity of the optimal parameters is less concerned. In this paper, the BIOME-BGC model was used as an example. In the evergreen broad-leaved forest, deciduous broad-leaved forest and C3 grassland, the sensitive parameters of the model were selected by constructing the sensitivity judgment index with two experimental sites selected under each vegetation type. The objective function was constructed by using the simulated annealing algorithm combined with the flux data to obtain the monthly optimal values of the sensitive parameters at each site. Then we constructed the temporal heterogeneity judgment index, the spatial heterogeneity judgment index and the temporal and spatial heterogeneity judgment index to quantitatively analyze the temporal and spatial heterogeneity of the optimal values of the model sensitive parameters. The results showed that the sensitivity of BIOME-BGC model parameters was different under different vegetation types, but the selected sensitive parameters were mostly consistent. The optimal values of the sensitive parameters of BIOME-BGC model mostly presented time-space heterogeneity to different degrees which varied with vegetation types. The sensitive parameters related to vegetation physiology and ecology had relatively little temporal and spatial heterogeneity while those related to environment and phenology had generally larger temporal and spatial heterogeneity. In addition, the temporal heterogeneity of the optimal values of the model sensitive parameters showed a significant linear correlation with the spatial heterogeneity under the three vegetation types. According to the temporal and spatial heterogeneity of the optimal values, the parameters of the BIOME-BGC model could be classified in order to adopt different parameter strategies in practical application. The conclusion could help to deeply understand the parameters and the optimal values of the ecological process models, and provide a way or reference for obtaining the reasonable values of parameters in models application.

Ecosystem effects of environmental flows: Modelling and experimental floods in a dryland river

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shafroth, P.B.; Wilcox, A.C.; Lytle, D.A.; Hickey, J.T.; Andersen, D.C.; Beauchamp, Vanessa B.; Hautzinger, A.; McMullen, L.E.; Warner, A.

2010-01-01

Successful environmental flow prescriptions require an accurate understanding of the linkages among flow events, geomorphic processes and biotic responses. We describe models and results from experimental flow releases associated with an environmental flow program on the Bill Williams River (BWR), Arizona, in arid to semiarid western U.S.A. Two general approaches for improving knowledge and predictions of ecological responses to environmental flows are: (1) coupling physical system models to ecological responses and (2) clarifying empirical relationships between flow and ecological responses through implementation and monitoring of experimental flow releases. We modelled the BWR physical system using: (1) a reservoir operations model to simulate reservoir releases and reservoir water levels and estimate flow through the river system under a range of scenarios, (2) one- and two-dimensional river hydraulics models to estimate stage-discharge relationships at the whole-river and local scales, respectively, and (3) a groundwater model to estimate surface- and groundwater interactions in a large, alluvial valley on the BWR where surface flow is frequently absent. An example of a coupled, hydrology-ecology model is the Ecosystems Function Model, which we used to link a one-dimensional hydraulic model with riparian tree seedling establishment requirements to produce spatially explicit predictions of seedling recruitment locations in a Geographic Information System. We also quantified the effects of small experimental floods on the differential mortality of native and exotic riparian trees, on beaver dam integrity and distribution, and on the dynamics of differentially flow-adapted benthic macroinvertebrate groups. Results of model applications and experimental flow releases are contributing to adaptive flow management on the BWR and to the development of regional environmental flow standards. General themes that emerged from our work include the importance of response thresholds, which are commonly driven by geomorphic thresholds or mediated by geomorphic processes, and the importance of spatial and temporal variation in the effects of flows on ecosystems, which can result from factors such as longitudinal complexity and ecohydrological feedbacks. ?? Published 2009.

Disentangling Mechanisms That Mediate the Balance Between Stochastic and Deterministic Processes in Microbial Succession

DOE PAGES

Dini-Andreote, Francisco; Stegen, James C.; van Elsas, Jan D.; ...

2015-03-17

Despite growing recognition that deterministic and stochastic factors simultaneously influence bacterial communities, little is known about mechanisms shifting their relative importance. To better understand underlying mechanisms, we developed a conceptual model linking ecosystem development during primary succession to shifts in the stochastic/deterministic balance. To evaluate the conceptual model we coupled spatiotemporal data on soil bacterial communities with environmental conditions spanning 105 years of salt marsh development. At the local scale there was a progression from stochasticity to determinism due to Na accumulation with increasing ecosystem age, supporting a main element of the conceptual model. At the regional-scale, soil organic mattermore » (SOM) governed the relative influence of stochasticity and the type of deterministic ecological selection, suggesting scale-dependency in how deterministic ecological selection is imposed. Analysis of a new ecological simulation model supported these conceptual inferences. Looking forward, we propose an extended conceptual model that integrates primary and secondary succession in microbial systems.« less

An Integrated Ecological Modeling System for Assessing ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

We demonstrate a novel, spatially explicit assessment of the current condition of aquatic ecosystem services, with limited sensitivity analysis for the atmospheric contaminant mercury. The Integrated Ecological Modeling System (IEMS) forecasts water quality and quantity, habitat suitability for aquatic biota, fish biomasses, population densities, productivities, and contamination by methylmercury across headwater watersheds. We applied this IEMS to the Coal River Basin (CRB), West Virginia (USA), an 8-digit hydrologic unit watershed, by simulating a network of 97 stream segments using the SWAT watershed model, a watershed mercury loading model, the WASP water quality model, the PiSCES fish community estimation model, a fish habitat suitability model, the BASS fish community and bioaccumulation model, and an ecoservices post-processer. Model application was facilitated by automated data retrieval and model setup and updated model wrappers and interfaces for data transfers between these models from a prior study. This companion study evaluates baseline predictions of ecoservices provided for 1990 – 2010 for the population of streams in the CRB and serves as a foundation for future model development. Published in the journal, Ecological Modeling. Highlights: • Demonstrate a spatially-explicit IEMS for multiple scales. • Design a flexible IEMS for

. Ecological conceptual models: a framework and case study on ecosystem management for South Florida sustainability

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gentile, J.H.; Harwell, M.A.; Cropper, W.; Harwell, C. C.; DeAngelis, Donald L.; Davis, S.; Ogden, J.C.; Lirman, D.

2001-01-01

The Everglades and South Florida ecosystems are the focus of national and international attention because of their current degraded and threatened state. Ecological risk assessment, sustainability and ecosystem and adaptive management principles and processes are being used nationally as a decision and policy framework for a variety of types of ecological assessments. The intent of this study is to demonstrate the application of these paradigms and principles at a regional scale. The effects-directed assessment approach used in this study consists of a retrospective, eco-epidemiological phase to determine the causes for the current conditions and a prospective predictive risk-based assessment using scenario analysis to evaluate future options. Embedded in these assessment phases is a process that begins with the identification of goals and societal preferences which are used to develop an integrated suite of risk-based and policy relevant conceptual models. Conceptual models are used to illustrate the linkages among management (societal) actions, environmental stressors, and societal/ecological effects, and provide the basis for developing and testing causal hypotheses. These models, developed for a variety of landscape units and their drivers, stressors, and endpoints, are used to formulate hypotheses to explain the current conditions. They are also used as the basis for structuring management scenarios and analyses to project the temporal and spatial magnitude of risk reduction and system recovery. Within the context of recovery, the conceptual models are used in the initial development of performance criteria for those stressors that are determined to be most important in shaping the landscape, and to guide the use of numerical models used to develop quantitative performance criteria in the scenario analysis. The results will be discussed within an ecosystem and adaptive management framework that provides the foundation for decision making.

Ecological conceptual models: a framework and case study on ecosystem management for South Florida sustainability.

PubMed

Gentile, J H; Harwell, M A; Cropper, W; Harwell, C C; DeAngelis, D; Davis, S; Ogden, J C; Lirman, D

2001-07-02

The Everglades and South Florida ecosystems are the focus of national and international attention because of their current degraded and threatened state. Ecological risk assessment, sustainability, and ecosystem and adaptive management principles and processes are being used nationally as a decision and policy framework for a variety of types of ecological assessments. The intent of this study is to demonstrate the application of these paradigms and principles at a regional scale. The effects-directed assessment approach used in this study consists of a retrospective, eco-epidemiological phase to determine the causes for the current conditions and a prospective predictive risk-based assessment using scenario analysis to evaluate future options. Embedded in these assessment phases is a process that begins with the identification of goals and societal preferences which are used to develop an integrated suite of risk-based and policy relevant conceptual models. Conceptual models are used to illustrate the linkages among management (societal) actions, environmental stressors, and societal/ecological effects, and provide the basis for developing and testing causal hypotheses. These models, developed for a variety of landscape units and their drivers, stressors, and endpoints, are used to formulate hypotheses to explain the current conditions. They are also used as the basis for structuring management scenarios and analyses to project the temporal and spatial magnitude of risk reduction and system recovery. Within the context of recovery, the conceptual models are used in the initial development of performance criteria for those stressors that are determined to be most important in shaping the landscape, and to guide the use of numerical models used to develop quantitative performance criteria in the scenario analysis. The results will be discussed within an ecosystem and adaptive management framework that provides the foundation for decision making.

Phylogenetic overdispersion of plant species in southern Brazilian savannas.

PubMed

Silva, I A; Batalha, M A

2009-08-01

Ecological communities are the result of not only present ecological processes, such as competition among species and environmental filtering, but also past and continuing evolutionary processes. Based on these assumptions, we may infer mechanisms of contemporary coexistence from the phylogenetic relationships of the species in a community. We studied the phylogenetic structure of plant communities in four cerrado sites, in southeastern Brazil. We calculated two raw phylogenetic distances among the species sampled. We estimated the phylogenetic structure by comparing the observed phylogenetic distances to the distribution of phylogenetic distances in null communities. We obtained null communities by randomizing the phylogenetic relationships of the regional pool of species. We found a phylogenetic overdispersion of the cerrado species. Phylogenetic overdispersion has several explanations, depending on the phylogenetic history of traits and contemporary ecological interactions. However, based on coexistence models between grasses and trees, density-dependent ecological forces, and the evolutionary history of the cerrado flora, we argue that the phylogenetic overdispersion of cerrado species is predominantly due to competitive interactions, herbivores and pathogen attacks, and ecological speciation. Future studies will need to include information on the phylogenetic history of plant traits.

Advanced Water Quality Modelling in Marine Systems: Application to the Wadden Sea, the Netherlands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boon, J.; Smits, J. G.

2006-12-01

There is an increasing demand for knowledge and models that arise from water management in relation to water quality, sediment quality (ecology) and sediment accumulation (ecomorphology). Recently, models for sediment diagenesis and erosion developed or incorporated by Delft Hydraulics integrates the relevant physical, (bio)chemical and biological processes for the sediment-water exchange of substances. The aim of the diagenesis models is the prediction of both sediment quality and the return fluxes of substances such as nutrients and micropollutants to the overlying water. The resulting so-called DELWAQ-G model is a new, generic version of the water and sediment quality model of the DELFT3D framework. One set of generic water quality process formulations is used to calculate process rates in both water and sediment compartments. DELWAQ-G involves the explicit simulation of sediment layers in the water quality model with state-of-the-art process kinetics. The local conditions in a water layer or sediment layer such as the dissolved oxygen concentration determine if and how individual processes come to expression. New processes were added for sulphate, sulphide, methane and the distribution of the electron-acceptor demand over dissolved oxygen, nitrate, sulphate and carbon dioxide. DELWAQ-G also includes the dispersive and advective transport processes in the sediment and across the sediment-water interface. DELWAQ-G has been applied for the Wadden Sea. A very dynamic tidal and ecologically active estuary with a complex hydrodynamic behaviour located at the north of the Netherlands. The predicted profiles in the sediment reflect the typical interactions of diagenesis processes.

Modeling ecological synergies and trade-offs in livestock production systems in Kenya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kowal, V. A.; Chaplin-Kramer, R.; Hamel, P.

2016-12-01

Livestock production is critical to maintaining livelihoods in many of the world's rural economies, and interacts with complex ecological processes in ways that present both opportunities and risks for ecosystems and the benefits they provide to people. We present a new dynamic simulation model to examine cattle production in the savannas of East Africa, and its synergies and trade-offs with co-benefits such as wildlife conservation and related tourism. The InVEST rangeland production model couples biomass production from the CENTURY model with diet selection and herbivore physiology from the GRAZPLAN animal biology model. This powerful and flexible model demonstrates that through their interactions mediated by forage availability and tick-borne disease, cattle and wildlife may benefit from integration.

Research on the Mechanism of Cross Regional Grassland Ecological Compensation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Ran; Ma, Jun

2018-01-01

In recent years, grassland environmental damage has become serious, and grassland resources protection task has become heavy, grassland ecological compensation has become an effective way to solve this problem; but the current grassland ecological compensation standards were low, the effect is poor. The fundamental reason is the model of administrative division destroys the integrity of grassland. Based on the analysis of the status quo of grassland compensation, this paper tries to protect the grassland integrity, breaks the administrative division restriction, implements the space regulation, constructs the framework of cross-regional grassland ecological compensation mechanism, describes its operation process. It provides new way to realize the sustainable development of the grassland environment.

Considerations in representing human individuals in social ecological models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Manfredo, Michael J.; Teel, Tara L.; Gavin, Michael C.; Fulton, David C.

2017-01-01

In this chapter we focus on how to integrate the human individual into social-ecological systems analysis, and how to improve research on individual thought and action regarding the environment by locating it within the broader social-ecological context. We discuss three key questions as considerations for future research: (1) is human thought conceptualized as a dynamic and adaptive process, (2) is the individual placed in a multi-level context (including within-person levels, person-group interactions, and institutional and structural factors), and (3) is human thought seen as mutually constructed with the social and natural environment. Increased emphasis on the individual will be essential if we are to understand agency, innovation, and adaptation in social-ecological systems.

Model calibration criteria for estimating ecological flow characteristics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Vis, Marc; Knight, Rodney; Poole, Sandra; Wolfe, William J.; Seibert, Jan; Breuer, Lutz; Kraft, Philipp

2016-01-01

Quantification of streamflow characteristics in ungauged catchments remains a challenge. Hydrological modeling is often used to derive flow time series and to calculate streamflow characteristics for subsequent applications that may differ from those envisioned by the modelers. While the estimation of model parameters for ungauged catchments is a challenging research task in itself, it is important to evaluate whether simulated time series preserve critical aspects of the streamflow hydrograph. To address this question, seven calibration objective functions were evaluated for their ability to preserve ecologically relevant streamflow characteristics of the average annual hydrograph using a runoff model, HBV-light, at 27 catchments in the southeastern United States. Calibration trials were repeated 100 times to reduce parameter uncertainty effects on the results, and 12 ecological flow characteristics were computed for comparison. Our results showed that the most suitable calibration strategy varied according to streamflow characteristic. Combined objective functions generally gave the best results, though a clear underprediction bias was observed. The occurrence of low prediction errors for certain combinations of objective function and flow characteristic suggests that (1) incorporating multiple ecological flow characteristics into a single objective function would increase model accuracy, potentially benefitting decision-making processes; and (2) there may be a need to have different objective functions available to address specific applications of the predicted time series.

Nonlinear relationships can lead to bias in biomass calculations and drift-foraging models when using summaries of invertebrate drift data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dodrill, Michael J.; Yackulic, Charles B.

2016-01-01

Drift-foraging models offer a mechanistic description of how fish feed in flowing water and the application of drift-foraging bioenergetics models to answer both applied and theoretical questions in aquatic ecology is growing. These models typically include nonlinear descriptions of ecological processes and as a result may be sensitive to how model inputs are summarized because of a mathematical property of nonlinear equations known as Jensen’s inequality. In particular, we show that the way in which continuous size distributions of invertebrate prey are represented within foraging models can lead to biases within the modeling process. We begin by illustrating how different equations common to drift-foraging models are sensitive to invertebrate inputs. We then use two case studies to show how different representations of invertebrate prey can influence predictions of energy intake and lifetime growth. Greater emphasis should be placed on accurate characterizations of invertebrate drift, acknowledging that inferences from drift-foraging models may be influenced by how invertebrate prey are represented.

Bringing the ecosystem services concept into marine management decisions, supporting ecosystems-based management.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tweddle, J. F.; Byg, A.; Davies, I.; Gubbins, M.; Irvine, K.; Kafas, A.; Kenter, J.; MacDonald, A.; Murray, R. B. O.; Potts, T.; Slater, A. M.; Wright, K.; Scott, B. E.

2016-02-01

The marine environment is under increasing use, putting pressure on marine ecosystems and increasing competition for space. New activities (e.g. renewable energy developments), evolving marine policies (e.g. implementation of marine protected areas), and climate change may drive changes in biodiversity and resulting ecosystem services (ES) that society and business utilise from coastal and marine systems. A process is needed that integrates ecological assessment of changes with stakeholder perceptions and valuation of ES, whilst balancing ease of application with the ability to deal with complex social-economic-ecological issues. The project "Cooperative participatory assessment of the impact of renewable technology on ecosystem services: CORPORATES" involved natural and social scientists, law and policy experts, and marine managers, with the aim of promoting more integrated decision making using ES concepts in marine management. CORPORATES developed a process to bring ES concepts into stakeholders' awareness. The interactive process, involving 2 workshops, employs interludes of knowledge exchange by experts on ecological processes underpinning ES and on law and policy. These enable mapping of benefits linked to activities, participatory system modelling, and deliberation of policy impacts on different sectors. The workshops were attended by industry representatives, regulatory/advisory partners, and other stakeholders (NGOs, SMEs, recreationalists, local government). Mixed sector groups produced new insights into links between activities and ES, and highlighted cross-sector concerns. Here we present the aspects of the process that successfully built shared understanding between industry and stakeholders of inter-linkages and interactions between ES, benefits, activities, and economic and cultural values. These methods provide an ES-based decision-support model for exchanging societal-ecological knowledge and providing stakeholder interaction in marine planning, supporting ecosystem-based management.

Bringing the ecosystem services concept into marine management decisions, supporting ecosystems-based management.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tweddle, J. F.; Byg, A.; Davies, I.; Gubbins, M.; Irvine, K.; Kafas, A.; Kenter, J.; MacDonald, A.; Murray, R. B. O.; Potts, T.; Slater, A. M.; Wright, K.; Scott, B. E.

2016-12-01

The marine environment is under increasing use, putting pressure on marine ecosystems and increasing competition for space. New activities (e.g. renewable energy developments), evolving marine policies (e.g. implementation of marine protected areas), and climate change may drive changes in biodiversity and resulting ecosystem services (ES) that society and business utilise from coastal and marine systems. A process is needed that integrates ecological assessment of changes with stakeholder perceptions and valuation of ES, whilst balancing ease of application with the ability to deal with complex social-economic-ecological issues. The project "Cooperative participatory assessment of the impact of renewable technology on ecosystem services: CORPORATES" involved natural and social scientists, law and policy experts, and marine managers, with the aim of promoting more integrated decision making using ES concepts in marine management. CORPORATES developed a process to bring ES concepts into stakeholders' awareness. The interactive process, involving 2 workshops, employs interludes of knowledge exchange by experts on ecological processes underpinning ES and on law and policy. These enable mapping of benefits linked to activities, participatory system modelling, and deliberation of policy impacts on different sectors. The workshops were attended by industry representatives, regulatory/advisory partners, and other stakeholders (NGOs, SMEs, recreationalists, local government). Mixed sector groups produced new insights into links between activities and ES, and highlighted cross-sector concerns. Here we present the aspects of the process that successfully built shared understanding between industry and stakeholders of inter-linkages and interactions between ES, benefits, activities, and economic and cultural values. These methods provide an ES-based decision-support model for exchanging societal-ecological knowledge and providing stakeholder interaction in marine planning, supporting ecosystem-based management.

Beyond neutral and forbidden links: morphological matches and the assembly of mutualistic hawkmoth-plant networks.

PubMed

Sazatornil, Federico D; Moré, Marcela; Benitez-Vieyra, Santiago; Cocucci, Andrea A; Kitching, Ian J; Schlumpberger, Boris O; Oliveira, Paulo E; Sazima, Marlies; Amorim, Felipe W

2016-11-01

A major challenge in evolutionary ecology is to understand how co-evolutionary processes shape patterns of interactions between species at community level. Pollination of flowers with long corolla tubes by long-tongued hawkmoths has been invoked as a showcase model of co-evolution. Recently, optimal foraging models have predicted that there might be a close association between mouthparts' length and the corolla depth of the visited flowers, thus favouring trait convergence and specialization at community level. Here, we assessed whether hawkmoths more frequently pollinate plants with floral tube lengths similar to their proboscis lengths (morphological match hypothesis) against abundance-based processes (neutral hypothesis) and ecological trait mismatches constraints (forbidden links hypothesis), and how these processes structure hawkmoth-plant mutualistic networks from five communities in four biogeographical regions of South America. We found convergence in morphological traits across the five communities and that the distribution of morphological differences between hawkmoths and plants is consistent with expectations under the morphological match hypothesis in three of the five communities. In the two remaining communities, which are ecotones between two distinct biogeographical areas, interactions are better predicted by the neutral hypothesis. Our findings are consistent with the idea that diffuse co-evolution drives the evolution of extremely long proboscises and flower tubes, and highlight the importance of morphological traits, beyond the forbidden links hypothesis, in structuring interactions between mutualistic partners, revealing that the role of niche-based processes can be much more complex than previously known. © 2016 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2016 British Ecological Society.

Conservation success as a function of good alignment of social and ecological structures and processes.

PubMed

Bodin, Orjan; Crona, Beatrice; Thyresson, Matilda; Golz, Anna-Lea; Tengö, Maria

2014-10-01

How to create and adjust governing institutions so that they align (fit) with complex ecosystem processes and structures across scales is an issue of increasing concern in conservation. It is argued that lack of such social-ecological fit makes governance and conservation difficult, yet progress in explicitly defining and rigorously testing what constitutes a good fit has been limited. We used a novel modeling approach and data from case studies of fishery and forest conservation to empirically test presumed relationships between conservation outcomes and certain patterns of alignment of social-ecological interdependences. Our approach made it possible to analyze conservation outcome on a systems level while also providing information on how individual actors are positioned in the complex web of social-ecological interdependencies. We found that when actors who shared resources were also socially linked, conservation at the level of the whole social-ecological system was positively affected. When the scales at which individual actors used resources and the scale at which ecological resources were interconnected to other ecological resources were aligned through tightened feedback loops, conservation outcome was better than when they were not aligned. The analysis of individual actors' positions in the web of social-ecological interdependencies was helpful in understanding why a system has a certain level of social-ecological fit. Results of analysis of positions showed that different actors contributed in very different ways to achieve a certain fit and revealed some underlying difference between the actors, for example in terms of actors' varying rights to access and use different ecological resources. © 2014 Society for Conservation Biology.

Odonata (dragonflies and damselflies) as a bridge between ecology and evolutionary genomics.

PubMed

Bybee, Seth; Córdoba-Aguilar, Alex; Duryea, M Catherine; Futahashi, Ryo; Hansson, Bengt; Lorenzo-Carballa, M Olalla; Schilder, Ruud; Stoks, Robby; Suvorov, Anton; Svensson, Erik I; Swaegers, Janne; Takahashi, Yuma; Watts, Phillip C; Wellenreuther, Maren

2016-01-01

Odonata (dragonflies and damselflies) present an unparalleled insect model to integrate evolutionary genomics with ecology for the study of insect evolution. Key features of Odonata include their ancient phylogenetic position, extensive phenotypic and ecological diversity, several unique evolutionary innovations, ease of study in the wild and usefulness as bioindicators for freshwater ecosystems worldwide. In this review, we synthesize studies on the evolution, ecology and physiology of odonates, highlighting those areas where the integration of ecology with genomics would yield significant insights into the evolutionary processes that would not be gained easily by working on other animal groups. We argue that the unique features of this group combined with their complex life cycle, flight behaviour, diversity in ecological niches and their sensitivity to anthropogenic change make odonates a promising and fruitful taxon for genomics focused research. Future areas of research that deserve increased attention are also briefly outlined.

Uncovering stability mechanisms in microbial ecosystems - combining microcosm experiments, computational modelling and ecological theory in a multidisciplinary approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Worrich, Anja; König, Sara; Banitz, Thomas; Centler, Florian; Frank, Karin; Kästner, Matthias; Miltner, Anja; Thullner, Martin; Wick, Lukas

2015-04-01

Although bacterial degraders in soil are commonly exposed to fluctuating environmental conditions, the functional performance of the biodegradation processes can often be maintained by resistance and resilience mechanisms. However, there is still a gap in the mechanistic understanding of key factors contributing to the stability of such an ecosystem service. Therefore we developed an integrated approach combining microcosm experiments, simulation models and ecological theory to directly make use of the strengths of these disciplines. In a continuous interplay process, data, hypotheses, and central questions are exchanged between disciplines to initiate new experiments and models to ultimately identify buffer mechanisms and factors providing functional stability. We focus on drying and rewetting-cycles in soil ecosystems, which are a major abiotic driver for bacterial activity. Functional recovery of the system was found to depend on different spatial processes in the computational model. In particular, bacterial motility is a prerequisite for biodegradation if either bacteria or substrate are heterogeneously distributed. Hence, laboratory experiments focussing on bacterial dispersal processes were conducted and confirmed this finding also for functional resistance. Obtained results will be incorporated into the model in the next step. Overall, the combination of computational modelling and laboratory experiments identified spatial processes as the main driving force for functional stability in the considered system, and has proved a powerful methodological approach.

The ecology of population dispersal: Modeling alternative basin-plateau foraging strategies to explain the Numic expansion.

PubMed

Magargal, Kate E; Parker, Ashley K; Vernon, Kenneth Blake; Rath, Will; Codding, Brian F

2017-07-08

The expansion of Numic speaking populations into the Great Basin required individuals to adapt to a relatively unproductive landscape. Researchers have proposed numerous social and subsistence strategies to explain how and why these settlers were able to replace any established populations, including private property and intensive plant processing. Here we evaluate these hypotheses and propose a new strategy involving the use of landscape fire to increase resource encounter rates. Implementing a novel, spatially explicit, multi-scalar prey choice model, we examine how individual decisions approximating each alternative strategy (private property, anthropogenic fire, and intensive plant processing) would aggregate at the patch and band level to confer an overall benefit to this colonizing population. Analysis relies on experimental data reporting resource profitability and abundance, ecological data on the historic distribution of vegetation patches, and ethnohistoric data on the distribution of Numic bands. Model results show that while resource privatization and landscape fires produce a substantial advantage, intensified plant processing garners the greatest benefit. The relative benefits of alternative strategies vary significantly across ecological patches resulting in variation across ethnographic band ranges. Combined, a Numic strategy including all three alternatives would substantially increase subsistence yields. The application of a strategy set that includes landscape fire, privatization and intensified processing of seeds and nuts, explains why the Numa were able to outcompete local populations. This approach provides a framework to help explain how individual decisions can result in such population replacement events throughout human history. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Fertilization effects on forest carbon storage and exchange, and net primary production: A new hybrid process model for stand management

Treesearch

D. A. Sampson; R. H. Waring; C. A. Maier; C. M. Gough; M. J. Ducey; K. H. Johnsen

2006-01-01

A critical ecological question in plantation management is whether fertilization, which generally increases yield, results in enhanced C sequestration over short rotations. We present a rotation-length hybrid process model (SECRETS-3PG) that was calibrated (using control treatments; CW) and verified (using fertilized treatments; FW) using daily estimates of H

Fertilization effects on forest carbon storage and exchange, and net primary production: a new hybrid process model for stand management

Treesearch

D.A. Sampson; R.H. Waring; C.A. Maier; C.M. Gough; M.J. Ducey; K.H. Kohnsen

2006-01-01

A critical ecological question in plantation management is whether fertilization, which generally increases yield, results in enhanced C sequestration over short rotations. We present a rotation-length hybrid process model (SECRETS-3PG) that was calibrated (using control treatments; CW) and verified (using fertilized treatments; FW) using daily estimates of H

Chapter 13 Application of landscape and habitat suitability models to conservation: the Hoosier National Forest land-management plan

Treesearch

Chadwick D. Rittenhouse; Stephen R. Shifley; William D. Dijak; Zhaofei Fan; Frank R., III Thompson; Joshua J. Millspaugh; Judith A. Perez; Cynthia M. Sandeno

2011-01-01

We demonstrate an approach to integrated land-management planning and quantify differences in vegetation and avian habitat conditions among 5 management alternatives as part of the Hoosier National Forest planning process. The alternatives differed in terms of the type, extent, magnitude, frequency, and location of management activities. We modeled ecological processes...

Assessment of ecologic regression in the study of lung cancer and indoor radon.

PubMed

Stidley, C A; Samet, J M

1994-02-01

Ecologic regression studies conducted to assess the cancer risk of indoor radon to the general population are subject to methodological limitations, and they have given seemingly contradictory results. The authors use simulations to examine the effects of two major methodological problems that affect these studies: measurement error and misspecification of the risk model. In a simulation study of the effect of measurement error caused by the sampling process used to estimate radon exposure for a geographic unit, both the effect of radon and the standard error of the effect estimate were underestimated, with greater bias for smaller sample sizes. In another simulation study, which addressed the consequences of uncontrolled confounding by cigarette smoking, even small negative correlations between county geometric mean annual radon exposure and the proportion of smokers resulted in negative average estimates of the radon effect. A third study considered consequences of using simple linear ecologic models when the true underlying model relation between lung cancer and radon exposure is nonlinear. These examples quantify potential biases and demonstrate the limitations of estimating risks from ecologic studies of lung cancer and indoor radon.

EcoPAD, an interactive platform for near real-time ecological forecasting by assimilating data into model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

MA, S.; Huang, Y.; Stacy, M.; Jiang, J.; Sundi, N.; Ricciuto, D. M.; Hanson, P. J.; Luo, Y.; Saruta, V.

2017-12-01

Ecological forecasting is critical in various aspects of our coupled human-nature systems, such as disaster risk reduction, natural resource management and climate change mitigation. Novel advancements are in urgent need to deepen our understandings of ecosystem dynamics, boost the predictive capacity of ecology, and provide timely and effective information for decision-makers in a rapidly changing world. Our study presents a smart system - Ecological Platform for Assimilation of Data (EcoPAD) - which streamlines web request-response, data management, model execution, result storage and visualization. EcoPAD allows users to (i) estimate model parameters or state variables, (ii) quantify uncertainty of estimated parameters and projected states of ecosystems, (iii) evaluate model structures, (iv) assess sampling strategies, (v) conduct ecological forecasting, and (vi) detect ecosystem acclimation to climate change. One of the key innovations of the web-based EcoPAD is the automated near- or real-time forecasting of ecosystem dynamics with uncertainty fully quantified. The user friendly webpage enables non-modelers to explore their data for simulation and data assimilation. As a case study, we applied EcoPAD to the Spruce and Peatland Responses Under Climatic and Environmental Change Experiment (SPRUCE), a whole ecosystem warming and CO2 enrichment treatment project in the northern peatland, assimilated multiple data streams into a process based ecosystem model, enhanced timely feedback between modelers and experimenters, ultimately improved ecosystem forecasting and made better use of current knowledge. Built in a framework with flexible API, EcoPAD is easily portable and will benefit scientific communities, policy makers as well as the general public.

Participatory modeling of recreation and tourism

Treesearch

Lisa C. Chase; Roelof M.J. Boumans; Stephanie Morse

2007-01-01

Communities involved in recreation and tourism planning need to understand the broad range of benefits and challenges--economic, social, and ecological--in order to make informed decisions. Participatory computer modeling is a methodology that involves a community in the process of collectively building a model about a particular situation that affects participants...

Nonparametric Bayesian models through probit stick-breaking processes

PubMed Central

Rodríguez, Abel; Dunson, David B.

2013-01-01

We describe a novel class of Bayesian nonparametric priors based on stick-breaking constructions where the weights of the process are constructed as probit transformations of normal random variables. We show that these priors are extremely flexible, allowing us to generate a great variety of models while preserving computational simplicity. Particular emphasis is placed on the construction of rich temporal and spatial processes, which are applied to two problems in finance and ecology. PMID:24358072

Nonparametric Bayesian models through probit stick-breaking processes.

PubMed

Rodríguez, Abel; Dunson, David B

2011-03-01

We describe a novel class of Bayesian nonparametric priors based on stick-breaking constructions where the weights of the process are constructed as probit transformations of normal random variables. We show that these priors are extremely flexible, allowing us to generate a great variety of models while preserving computational simplicity. Particular emphasis is placed on the construction of rich temporal and spatial processes, which are applied to two problems in finance and ecology.

Predicting the process of extinction in experimental microcosms and accounting for interspecific interactions in single-species time series.

PubMed

Ferguson, Jake M; Ponciano, José M

2014-02-01

Predicting population extinction risk is a fundamental application of ecological theory to the practice of conservation biology. Here, we compared the prediction performance of a wide array of stochastic, population dynamics models against direct observations of the extinction process from an extensive experimental data set. By varying a series of biological and statistical assumptions in the proposed models, we were able to identify the assumptions that affected predictions about population extinction. We also show how certain autocorrelation structures can emerge due to interspecific interactions, and that accounting for the stochastic effect of these interactions can improve predictions of the extinction process. We conclude that it is possible to account for the stochastic effects of community interactions on extinction when using single-species time series. © 2013 The Authors. Ecology Letters published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd and CNRS.

An ecological process model of female sex offending: the role of victimization, psychological distress, and life stressors.

PubMed

DeCou, Christopher R; Cole, Trevor T; Rowland, Sarah E; Kaplan, Stephanie P; Lynch, Shannon M

2015-06-01

Female sex offenders may be implicated in up to one fifth of all sex crimes committed in the United States. Despite previous research findings that suggest unique patterns of offending among female sex offenders, limited empirical research has investigated the motivations and processes involved. The present study qualitatively examined female sex offenders' offense-related experiences and characterized the internal and external factors that contributed to offending. Semi-structured interviews with 24 female sex offenders were analyzed by a team of coders with limited exposure to the existing literature using grounded theory analysis. A conceptual framework emerged representing distinctive processes for solo- and co-offending, contextualized within ecological layers of social and environmental influence. This model extends previous work by offering an example of nested vulnerabilities proximal to female sexual offending. Implications for future research, prevention, and treatment are discussed. © The Author(s) 2014.

Decomposition

USGS Publications Warehouse

Middleton, Beth A.

2014-01-01

A cornerstone of ecosystem ecology, decomposition was recognized as a fundamental process driving the exchange of energy in ecosystems by early ecologists such as Lindeman 1942 and Odum 1960). In the history of ecology, studies of decomposition were incorporated into the International Biological Program in the 1960s to compare the nature of organic matter breakdown in various ecosystem types. Such studies still have an important role in ecological studies of today. More recent refinements have brought debates on the relative role microbes, invertebrates and environment in the breakdown and release of carbon into the atmosphere, as well as how nutrient cycling, production and other ecosystem processes regulated by decomposition may shift with climate change. Therefore, this bibliography examines the primary literature related to organic matter breakdown, but it also explores topics in which decomposition plays a key supporting role including vegetation composition, latitudinal gradients, altered ecosystems, anthropogenic impacts, carbon storage, and climate change models. Knowledge of these topics is relevant to both the study of ecosystem ecology as well projections of future conditions for human societies.

Functional Process Zones Characterizing Aquatic Insect Communities in Streams of the Brazilian Cerrado.

PubMed

Godoy, B S; Simião-Ferreira, J; Lodi, S; Oliveira, L G

2016-04-01

Stream ecology studies see to understand ecological dynamics in lotic systems. The characterization of streams into Functional Process Zones (FPZ) has been currently debated in stream ecology because aquatic communities respond to functional processes of river segments. Therefore, we tested if different functional process zones have different number of genera and trophic structure using the aquatic insect community of Neotropical streams. We also assessed whether using physical and chemical variables may complement the approach of using FPZ to model communities of aquatic insects in Cerrado streams. This study was conducted in 101 streams or rivers from the central region of the state of Goiás, Brazil. We grouped the streams into six FPZ associated to size of the river system, presence of riparian forest, and riverbed heterogeneity. We used Bayesian models to compare number of genera and relative frequency of the feeding groups between FPZs. Streams classified in different FPZs had a different number of genera, and the largest and best preserved rivers had an average of four additional genera. Trophic structure exhibited low variability among FPZs, with little difference both in the number of genera and in abundance. Using functional process zones in Cerrado streams yielded good results for Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera communities. Thus, species distribution and community structure in the river basin account for functional processes and not necessarily for the position of the community along a longitudinal dimension of the lotic system.

Hyporheic flow and transport processes: mechanisms, models, and biogeochemical implications

USGS Publications Warehouse

Boano, Fulvio; Harvey, Judson W.; Marion, Andrea; Packman, Aaron I.; Revelli, Roberto; Ridolfi, Luca; Anders, Wörman

2014-01-01

Fifty years of hyporheic zone research have shown the important role played by the hyporheic zone as an interface between groundwater and surface waters. However, it is only in the last two decades that what began as an empirical science has become a mechanistic science devoted to modeling studies of the complex fluid dynamical and biogeochemical mechanisms occurring in the hyporheic zone. These efforts have led to the picture of surface-subsurface water interactions as regulators of the form and function of fluvial ecosystems. Rather than being isolated systems, surface water bodies continuously interact with the subsurface. Exploration of hyporheic zone processes has led to a new appreciation of their wide reaching consequences for water quality and stream ecology. Modern research aims toward a unified approach, in which processes occurring in the hyporheic zone are key elements for the appreciation, management, and restoration of the whole river environment. In this unifying context, this review summarizes results from modeling studies and field observations about flow and transport processes in the hyporheic zone and describes the theories proposed in hydrology and fluid dynamics developed to quantitatively model and predict the hyporheic transport of water, heat, and dissolved and suspended compounds from sediment grain scale up to the watershed scale. The implications of these processes for stream biogeochemistry and ecology are also discussed."

Hyporheic flow and transport processes: Mechanisms, models, and biogeochemical implications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boano, F.; Harvey, J. W.; Marion, A.; Packman, A. I.; Revelli, R.; Ridolfi, L.; Wörman, A.

2014-12-01

Fifty years of hyporheic zone research have shown the important role played by the hyporheic zone as an interface between groundwater and surface waters. However, it is only in the last two decades that what began as an empirical science has become a mechanistic science devoted to modeling studies of the complex fluid dynamical and biogeochemical mechanisms occurring in the hyporheic zone. These efforts have led to the picture of surface-subsurface water interactions as regulators of the form and function of fluvial ecosystems. Rather than being isolated systems, surface water bodies continuously interact with the subsurface. Exploration of hyporheic zone processes has led to a new appreciation of their wide reaching consequences for water quality and stream ecology. Modern research aims toward a unified approach, in which processes occurring in the hyporheic zone are key elements for the appreciation, management, and restoration of the whole river environment. In this unifying context, this review summarizes results from modeling studies and field observations about flow and transport processes in the hyporheic zone and describes the theories proposed in hydrology and fluid dynamics developed to quantitatively model and predict the hyporheic transport of water, heat, and dissolved and suspended compounds from sediment grain scale up to the watershed scale. The implications of these processes for stream biogeochemistry and ecology are also discussed.

Placing biodiversity in ecosystem models without getting lost in translation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Queirós, Ana M.; Bruggeman, Jorn; Stephens, Nicholas; Artioli, Yuri; Butenschön, Momme; Blackford, Jeremy C.; Widdicombe, Stephen; Allen, J. Icarus; Somerfield, Paul J.

2015-04-01

A key challenge to progressing our understanding of biodiversity's role in the sustenance of ecosystem function is the extrapolation of the results of two decades of dedicated empirical research to regional, global and future landscapes. Ecosystem models provide a platform for this progression, potentially offering a holistic view of ecosystems where, guided by the mechanistic understanding of processes and their connection to the environment and biota, large-scale questions can be investigated. While the benefits of depicting biodiversity in such models are widely recognized, its application is limited by difficulties in the transfer of knowledge from small process oriented ecology into macro-scale modelling. Here, we build on previous work, breaking down key challenges of that knowledge transfer into a tangible framework, highlighting successful strategies that both modelling and ecology communities have developed to better interact with one another. We use a benthic and a pelagic case-study to illustrate how aspects of the links between biodiversity and ecosystem process have been depicted in marine ecosystem models (ERSEM and MIRO), from data, to conceptualisation and model development. We hope that this framework may help future interactions between biodiversity researchers and model developers by highlighting concrete solutions to common problems, and in this way contribute to the advance of the mechanistic understanding of the role of biodiversity in marine (and terrestrial) ecosystems.

A scale-based approach to interdisciplinary research and expertise in sports.

PubMed

Ibáñez-Gijón, Jorge; Buekers, Martinus; Morice, Antoine; Rao, Guillaume; Mascret, Nicolas; Laurin, Jérome; Montagne, Gilles

2017-02-01

After more than 20 years since the introduction of ecological and dynamical approaches in sports research, their promising opportunity for interdisciplinary research has not been fulfilled yet. The complexity of the research process and the theoretical and empirical difficulties associated with an integrated ecological-dynamical approach have been the major factors hindering the generalisation of interdisciplinary projects in sports sciences. To facilitate this generalisation, we integrate the major concepts from the ecological and dynamical approaches to study behaviour as a multi-scale process. Our integration gravitates around the distinction between functional (ecological) and execution (organic) scales, and their reciprocal intra- and inter-scale constraints. We propose an (epistemological) scale-based definition of constraints that accounts for the concept of synergies as emergent coordinative structures. To illustrate how we can operationalise the notion of multi-scale synergies we use an interdisciplinary model of locomotor pointing. To conclude, we show the value of this approach for interdisciplinary research in sport sciences, as we discuss two examples of task-specific dimensionality reduction techniques in the context of an ongoing project that aims to unveil the determinants of expertise in basketball free throw shooting. These techniques provide relevant empirical evidence to help bootstrap the challenging modelling efforts required in sport sciences.

Modelling the role of fires in the terrestrial carbon balance by incorporating SPITFIRE into the global vegetation modelORCHIDEE - Part 1: Simulating historical global burned area and fire regimes

Treesearch

C. Yue; P. Ciais; P. Cadule; K. Thonicke; S. Archibald; B. Poulter; W. M. Hao; S. Hantson; F. Mouillot; P. Friedlingstein; F. Maignan; N. Viovy

2014-01-01

Fire is an important global ecological process that influences the distribution of biomes, with consequences for carbon, water, and energy budgets. Therefore it is impossible to appropriately model the history and future of the terrestrial ecosystems and the climate system without including fire. This study incorporates the process-based prognostic fire module SPITFIRE...

Modeling species occurrence dynamics with multiple states and imperfect detection

USGS Publications Warehouse

MacKenzie, D.I.; Nichols, J.D.; Seamans, M.E.; Gutierrez, R.J.

2009-01-01

Recent extensions of occupancy modeling have focused not only on the distribution of species over space, but also on additional state variables (e.g., reproducing or not, with or without disease organisms, relative abundance categories) that provide extra information about occupied sites. These biologist-driven extensions are characterized by ambiguity in both species presence and correct state classification, caused by imperfect detection. We first show the relationships between independently published approaches to the modeling of multistate occupancy. We then extend the pattern-based modeling to the case of sampling over multiple seasons or years in order to estimate state transition probabilities associated with system dynamics. The methodology and its potential for addressing relevant ecological questions are demonstrated using both maximum likelihood (occupancy and successful reproduction dynamics of California Spotted Owl) and Markov chain Monte Carlo estimation approaches (changes in relative abundance of green frogs in Maryland). Just as multistate capture-recapture modeling has revolutionized the study of individual marked animals, we believe that multistate occupancy modeling will dramatically increase our ability to address interesting questions about ecological processes underlying population-level dynamics. ?? 2009 by the Ecological Society of America.

Modeling of the ecological niches of the anopheles spp in Ecuador by the use of geo-informatic tools.

PubMed

Padilla, Oswaldo; Rosas, Pablo; Moreno, Wilson; Toulkeridis, Theofilos

2017-06-01

Ecuador in the northwestern edge of South America is struggling by vector-borne diseases with an endemic-epidemic behavior leading to an enormous public health problem. Malaria, which has a cyclicality in its dynamics, is closely related to climatic, ecological and socio-economic phenomena. The main objective of this research has been to compare three different prediction species models, the so-called Maxent, logistic regression and multi criteria evaluation with fuzzy logic, in order to determine the model which best describes the ecological niche of the Anopheles spp species, which transmits malaria within Ecuador. After performing a detailed data collection and data processing, we applied the mentioned models and validated them with a statistical analysis in order to discover that the Maxent model has been the model that best defines the distribution of Anopheles spp within the territory. The determined sites, which are of high strategic value and important for the increasing national development, will now be able to initiate preventive countermeasures based on this study. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

From ecological test site to geographic information system: lessons for the 1980's

USGS Publications Warehouse

Alexander, Robert H.

1981-01-01

Geographic information systems were common elements in two kinds of interdisciplinary regional demonstration projects in the 1970's. Ecological test sits attempted to provide for more efficient remote-sensing data delivery for regional environmental management. Regional environmental systems analysis attempted to formally describe and model the interacting regional social and environmental processes, including the resource-use decision making process. Lessons for the 1980's are drawn from recent evaluations and assessments of these programs, focusing on cost, rates of system development and technology transfer, program coordination, integrative analysis capability, and the involvement of system users and decision makers.

Common ecology quantifies human insurgency.

PubMed

Bohorquez, Juan Camilo; Gourley, Sean; Dixon, Alexander R; Spagat, Michael; Johnson, Neil F

2009-12-17

Many collective human activities, including violence, have been shown to exhibit universal patterns. The size distributions of casualties both in whole wars from 1816 to 1980 and terrorist attacks have separately been shown to follow approximate power-law distributions. However, the possibility of universal patterns ranging across wars in the size distribution or timing of within-conflict events has barely been explored. Here we show that the sizes and timing of violent events within different insurgent conflicts exhibit remarkable similarities. We propose a unified model of human insurgency that reproduces these commonalities, and explains conflict-specific variations quantitatively in terms of underlying rules of engagement. Our model treats each insurgent population as an ecology of dynamically evolving, self-organized groups following common decision-making processes. Our model is consistent with several recent hypotheses about modern insurgency, is robust to many generalizations, and establishes a quantitative connection between human insurgency, global terrorism and ecology. Its similarity to financial market models provides a surprising link between violent and non-violent forms of human behaviour.

Taking the conservation biology perspective to secondary school classrooms.

PubMed

Wyner, Yael; Desalle, Rob

2010-06-01

The influence of conservation biology can be enhanced greatly if it reaches beyond undergraduate biology to students at the middle and high school levels. If a conservation perspective were taught in secondary schools, students who are not interested in biology could be influenced to pursue careers or live lifestyles that would reduce the negative impact of humans on the world. We use what we call the ecology-disrupted approach to transform the topics of conservation biology research into environmental-issue and ecology topics, the major themes of secondary school courses in environmental science. In this model, students learn about the importance and complexity of normal ecological processes by studying what goes wrong when people disrupt them (environmental issues). Many studies published in Conservation Biology are related in some way to the ecological principles being taught in secondary schools. Describing research in conservation biology in the language of ecology curricula in secondary schools can help bring these science stories to the classroom and give them a context in which they can be understood by students. Without this context in the curriculum, a science story can devolve into just another environmental issue that has no immediate effect on the daily lives of students. Nevertheless, if the research is placed in the context of larger ecological processes that are being taught, students can gain a better understanding of ecology and a better understanding of their effect on the world.

Conway's "Game of Life" and the Epigenetic Principle.

PubMed

Caballero, Lorena; Hodge, Bob; Hernandez, Sergio

2016-01-01

Cellular automatons and computer simulation games are widely used as heuristic devices in biology, to explore implications and consequences of specific theories. Conway's Game of Life has been widely used for this purpose. This game was designed to explore the evolution of ecological communities. We apply it to other biological processes, including symbiopoiesis. We show that Conway's organization of rules reflects the epigenetic principle, that genetic action and developmental processes are inseparable dimensions of a single biological system, analogous to the integration processes in symbiopoiesis. We look for similarities and differences between two epigenetic models, by Turing and Edelman, as they are realized in Game of Life objects. We show the value of computer simulations to experiment with and propose generalizations of broader scope with novel testable predictions. We use the game to explore issues in symbiopoiesis and evo-devo, where we explore a fractal hypothesis: that self-similarity exists at different levels (cells, organisms, ecological communities) as a result of homologous interactions of two as processes modeled in the Game of Life.

Brain shape convergence in the adaptive radiation of New World monkeys

PubMed Central

Aristide, Leandro; dos Reis, Sergio Furtado; Machado, Alessandra C.; Lima, Inaya; Lopes, Ricardo T.; Perez, S. Ivan

2016-01-01

Primates constitute one of the most diverse mammalian clades, and a notable feature of their diversification is the evolution of brain morphology. However, the evolutionary processes and ecological factors behind these changes are largely unknown. In this work, we investigate brain shape diversification of New World monkeys during their adaptive radiation in relation to different ecological dimensions. Our results reveal that brain diversification in this clade can be explained by invoking a model of adaptive peak shifts to unique and shared optima, defined by a multidimensional ecological niche hypothesis. Particularly, we show that the evolution of convergent brain phenotypes may be related to ecological factors associated with group size (e.g., social complexity). Together, our results highlight the complexity of brain evolution and the ecological significance of brain shape changes during the evolutionary diversification of a primate clade. PMID:26858427

Evidence and opportunities for integrating landscape ecology into natural resource planning across multiple-use landscapes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Trammel, E. Jamie; Carter, Sarah; Haby, Travis S.; Taylor, Jason J.

2018-01-01

Enhancing natural resource management has been a focus of landscape ecology since its inception, but numerous authors argue that landscape ecology has not yet been effective in achieving the underlying goal of planning and designing sustainable landscapes. We developed nine questions reflecting the application of fundamental research topics in landscape ecology to the landscape planning process and reviewed two recent landscape-scale plans in western North America for evidence of these concepts in plan decisions. Both plans considered multiple resources, uses, and values, including energy development, recreation, conservation, and protection of cultural and historic resources. We found that land use change and multiscale perspectives of resource uses and values were very often apparent in planning decisions. Pattern-process relationships, connectivity and fragmentation, ecosystem services, landscape history, and climate change were reflected less frequently. Landscape sustainability was considered only once in the 295 decisions reviewed, and outputs of landscape models were not referenced. We suggest six actionable opportunities for further integrating landscape ecology concepts into landscape planning efforts: 1) use landscape sustainability as an overarching goal, 2) adopt a broad ecosystem services framework, 3) explore the role of landscape history more comprehensively, 4) regularly consider and accommodate potential effects of climate change, 5) use landscape models to support plan decisions, and 6) promote a greater presence of landscape ecologists within agencies that manage large land bases and encourage active involvement in agency planning efforts. Together these actions may improve the defensibility, durability, and sustainability of landscape plan decisions.

Learning and teaching for an ecological sense of place: Toward environmental/science education praxis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hug, J. William

1998-09-01

This research presents a teaching model designed to enable learners to construct a highly developed ecological perspective and sense of place. The contextually-based research process draws upon scientific and indigenous knowledge from multiple data sources including: autobiographical experiences, environmental literature, science and environmental education research, historical approaches to environmental education, and phenomenological accounts from research participants. Data were analyzed using the theoretical frameworks of qualitative research, hermeneutic phenomenology, heuristics, and constructivism. The resulting model synthesizes and incorporates key educational philosophies and practices from: nature study, resident outdoor education, organized camping, conservation education, environmental education, earth education, outdoor recreation, sustainability, bio-regionalism, deep ecology, ecological and environmental literacy, science and technology in society, and adventure/challenge/experiential education. The model's four components--environmental knowledge, practicing responsible environmental behaviors, community-focused involvement, and direct experience in outdoor settings--contribute in a synergistic way to the development of ecological perspective and a sense of place. The model was honed through experiential use in an environmental science methods course for elementary and secondary prospective science teachers. The instructor/researcher employed individualized instruction, community-based learning, service learning, and the modeling of reflective teaching principles in pursuit of the model's goals. The resulting pedagogical knowledge extends the model's usefulness to such formal and non-formal educational contexts as: elementary/secondary classrooms, nature centers, museums, youth groups, and community organizations. This research has implications for the fields of education, geography, recreation/leisure studies, science teaching, and environmental education. Several aspects of this work make it novel. First, autobiographical and literature-based stories anchor the representations of ecological perspective and sense of place. Second, the dissertation text visually differentiates between story narrative, researcher narrative, and meta-narrative in order to convey the positionality of the researcher's distinct voices. Finally, icons are used throughout the text to visually link the model's multi-dimensional intersections. Oh, and by the way, I hope you read it.

Ecological Niche Modeling of Risk Factors for H7N9 Human Infection in China

PubMed Central

Xu, Min; Cao, Chunxiang; Li, Qun; Jia, Peng; Zhao, Jian

2016-01-01

China was attacked by a serious influenza A (H7N9) virus in 2013. The first human infection case was confirmed in Shanghai City and soon spread across most of eastern China. Using the methods of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and ecological niche modeling (ENM), this research quantitatively analyzed the relationships between the H7N9 occurrence and the main environmental factors, including meteorological variables, human population density, bird migratory routes, wetland distribution, and live poultry farms, markets, and processing factories. Based on these relationships the probability of the presence of H7N9 was predicted. Results indicated that the distribution of live poultry processing factories, farms, and human population density were the top three most important determinants of the H7N9 human infection. The relative contributions to the model of live poultry processing factories, farms and human population density were 39.9%, 17.7% and 17.7%, respectively, while the maximum temperature of the warmest month and mean relative humidity had nearly no contribution to the model. The paper has developed an ecological niche model (ENM) that predicts the spatial distribution of H7N9 cases in China using environmental variables. The area under the curve (AUC) values of the model were greater than 0.9 (0.992 for the training samples and 0.961 for the test data). The findings indicated that most of the high risk areas were distributed in the Yangtze River Delta. These findings have important significance for the Chinese government to enhance the environmental surveillance at multiple human poultry interfaces in the high risk area. PMID:27322296

Ecological Niche Modeling of Risk Factors for H7N9 Human Infection in China.

PubMed

Xu, Min; Cao, Chunxiang; Li, Qun; Jia, Peng; Zhao, Jian

2016-06-16

China was attacked by a serious influenza A (H7N9) virus in 2013. The first human infection case was confirmed in Shanghai City and soon spread across most of eastern China. Using the methods of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and ecological niche modeling (ENM), this research quantitatively analyzed the relationships between the H7N9 occurrence and the main environmental factors, including meteorological variables, human population density, bird migratory routes, wetland distribution, and live poultry farms, markets, and processing factories. Based on these relationships the probability of the presence of H7N9 was predicted. Results indicated that the distribution of live poultry processing factories, farms, and human population density were the top three most important determinants of the H7N9 human infection. The relative contributions to the model of live poultry processing factories, farms and human population density were 39.9%, 17.7% and 17.7%, respectively, while the maximum temperature of the warmest month and mean relative humidity had nearly no contribution to the model. The paper has developed an ecological niche model (ENM) that predicts the spatial distribution of H7N9 cases in China using environmental variables. The area under the curve (AUC) values of the model were greater than 0.9 (0.992 for the training samples and 0.961 for the test data). The findings indicated that most of the high risk areas were distributed in the Yangtze River Delta. These findings have important significance for the Chinese government to enhance the environmental surveillance at multiple human poultry interfaces in the high risk area.

Chapter 5: Application of state-and-transition models to evaluate wildlife habitat

Treesearch

Anita T. Morzillo; Pamela Comeleo; Blair Csuti; Stephanie Lee

2014-01-01

Wildlife habitat analysis often is a central focus of natural resources management and policy. State-and-transition models (STMs) allow for simulation of landscape level ecological processes, and for managers to test “what if” scenarios of how those processes may affect wildlife habitat. This chapter describes the methods used to link STM output to wildlife habitat to...

Putting the "ecology" into environmental flows: ecological dynamics and demographic modelling.

PubMed

Shenton, Will; Bond, Nicholas R; Yen, Jian D L; Mac Nally, Ralph

2012-07-01

There have been significant diversions of water from rivers and streams around the world; natural flow regimes have been perturbed by dams, barriers and excessive extractions. Many aspects of the ecological 'health' of riverine systems have declined due to changes in water flows, which has stimulated the development of thinking about the maintenance and restoration of these systems, which we refer to as environmental flow methodologies (EFMs). Most existing EFMs cannot deliver information on the population viability of species because they: (1) use habitat suitability as a proxy for population status; (2) use historical time series (usually of short duration) to forecast future conditions and flow sequences; (3) cannot, or do not, handle extreme flow events associated with climate variability; and (4) assume process stationarity for flow sequences, which means the past sequences are treated as good indicators of the future. These assumptions undermine the capacity of EFMs to properly represent risks associated with different flow management options; assumption (4) is untenable given most climate-change predictions. We discuss these concerns and advocate the use of demographic modelling as a more appropriate tool for linking population dynamics to flow regime change. A 'meta-species' approach to demographic modelling is discussed as a useful step from habitat based models towards modelling strategies grounded in ecological theory when limited data are available on flow-demographic relationships. Data requirements of demographic models will undoubtedly expose gaps in existing knowledge, but, in so doing, will strengthen future efforts to link changes in river flows with their ecological consequences.

Putting the "Ecology" into Environmental Flows: Ecological Dynamics and Demographic Modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shenton, Will; Bond, Nicholas R.; Yen, Jian D. L.; Mac Nally, Ralph

2012-07-01

There have been significant diversions of water from rivers and streams around the world; natural flow regimes have been perturbed by dams, barriers and excessive extractions. Many aspects of the ecological `health' of riverine systems have declined due to changes in water flows, which has stimulated the development of thinking about the maintenance and restoration of these systems, which we refer to as environmental flow methodologies (EFMs). Most existing EFMs cannot deliver information on the population viability of species because they: (1) use habitat suitability as a proxy for population status; (2) use historical time series (usually of short duration) to forecast future conditions and flow sequences; (3) cannot, or do not, handle extreme flow events associated with climate variability; and (4) assume process stationarity for flow sequences, which means the past sequences are treated as good indicators of the future. These assumptions undermine the capacity of EFMs to properly represent risks associated with different flow management options; assumption (4) is untenable given most climate-change predictions. We discuss these concerns and advocate the use of demographic modelling as a more appropriate tool for linking population dynamics to flow regime change. A `meta-species' approach to demographic modelling is discussed as a useful step from habitat based models towards modelling strategies grounded in ecological theory when limited data are available on flow-demographic relationships. Data requirements of demographic models will undoubtedly expose gaps in existing knowledge, but, in so doing, will strengthen future efforts to link changes in river flows with their ecological consequences.

Influences of Native American land use on the Colonial Euro-American settlement of the South Carolina Piedmont

PubMed Central

Nelson, Donald R.

2018-01-01

We test the hypothesis that prehistoric Native American land use influenced the Euro-American settlement process in a South Carolina Piedmont landscape. Long term ecological studies demonstrate that land use legacies influence processes and trajectories in complex, coupled social and ecological systems. Native American land use likely altered the ecological and evolutionary feedback and trajectories of many North American landscapes. Yet, considerable debate revolves around the scale and extent of land use legacies of prehistoric Native Americans. At the core of this debate is the question of whether or not European colonists settled a mostly “wild” landscape or an already “humanized” landscape. We use statistical event analysis to model the effects of prehistoric Native American settlement on the rate of Colonial land grants (1749–1775). Our results reveal how abandoned Native American settlements were among the first areas claimed and homesteaded by Euro-Americans. We suggest that prehistoric land use legacies served as key focal nodes in the Colonial era settlement process. As a consequence, localized prehistoric land use legacies likely helped structure the long term, landscape- to regional-level ecological inheritances that resulted from Euro-American settlement. PMID:29596504

Influences of Native American land use on the Colonial Euro-American settlement of the South Carolina Piedmont.

PubMed

Coughlan, Michael R; Nelson, Donald R

2018-01-01

We test the hypothesis that prehistoric Native American land use influenced the Euro-American settlement process in a South Carolina Piedmont landscape. Long term ecological studies demonstrate that land use legacies influence processes and trajectories in complex, coupled social and ecological systems. Native American land use likely altered the ecological and evolutionary feedback and trajectories of many North American landscapes. Yet, considerable debate revolves around the scale and extent of land use legacies of prehistoric Native Americans. At the core of this debate is the question of whether or not European colonists settled a mostly "wild" landscape or an already "humanized" landscape. We use statistical event analysis to model the effects of prehistoric Native American settlement on the rate of Colonial land grants (1749-1775). Our results reveal how abandoned Native American settlements were among the first areas claimed and homesteaded by Euro-Americans. We suggest that prehistoric land use legacies served as key focal nodes in the Colonial era settlement process. As a consequence, localized prehistoric land use legacies likely helped structure the long term, landscape- to regional-level ecological inheritances that resulted from Euro-American settlement.

Phenotypic disparity in Iberian short-horned grasshoppers (Acrididae): the role of ecology and phylogeny.

PubMed

García-Navas, Vicente; Noguerales, Víctor; Cordero, Pedro J; Ortego, Joaquín

2017-05-04

The combination of model-based comparative techniques, disparity analyses and ecomorphological correlations constitutes a powerful method to gain insight into the evolutionary mechanisms that shape morphological variation and speciation processes. In this study, we used a time-calibrated phylogeny of 70 Iberian species of short-horned grasshoppers (Acrididae) to test for patterns of morphological disparity in relation to their ecology and phylogenetic history. Specifically, we examined the role of substrate type and level of ecological specialization in driving different aspects of morphological evolution (locomotory traits, chemosensitive organs and cranial morphology) in this recent radiation. We found a bimodal distribution of locomotory attributes corresponding to the two main substrate type guilds (plant vs. ground); plant-perching species tend to exhibit larger wings and thicker femora than those that remain on the ground. This suggests that life form (i.e., substrate type) is an important driving force in the evolution of morphological traits in short-horned grasshoppers, irrespective of ancestry. Substrate type and ecological specialization had no significant influence on head shape, a trait that showed a strong phylogenetic conservatism. Finally, we also found a marginal significant association between the length of antennae and the level of ecological specialization, suggesting that the development of sensory organs may be favored in specialist species. Our results provide evidence that even in taxonomic groups showing limited morphological and ecological disparity, natural selection seems to play a more important role than genetic drift in driving the speciation process. Overall, this study suggests that morphostatic radiations should not necessarily be considered as "non-adaptive" and that the speciation process can bind both adaptive divergence mechanisms and neutral speciation processes related with allopatric and/or reproductive isolation.

A parametric interpretation of Bayesian Nonparametric Inference from Gene Genealogies: Linking ecological, population genetics and evolutionary processes.

PubMed

Ponciano, José Miguel

2017-11-22

Using a nonparametric Bayesian approach Palacios and Minin (2013) dramatically improved the accuracy, precision of Bayesian inference of population size trajectories from gene genealogies. These authors proposed an extension of a Gaussian Process (GP) nonparametric inferential method for the intensity function of non-homogeneous Poisson processes. They found that not only the statistical properties of the estimators were improved with their method, but also, that key aspects of the demographic histories were recovered. The authors' work represents the first Bayesian nonparametric solution to this inferential problem because they specify a convenient prior belief without a particular functional form on the population trajectory. Their approach works so well and provides such a profound understanding of the biological process, that the question arises as to how truly "biology-free" their approach really is. Using well-known concepts of stochastic population dynamics, here I demonstrate that in fact, Palacios and Minin's GP model can be cast as a parametric population growth model with density dependence and environmental stochasticity. Making this link between population genetics and stochastic population dynamics modeling provides novel insights into eliciting biologically meaningful priors for the trajectory of the effective population size. The results presented here also bring novel understanding of GP as models for the evolution of a trait. Thus, the ecological principles foundation of Palacios and Minin (2013)'s prior adds to the conceptual and scientific value of these authors' inferential approach. I conclude this note by listing a series of insights brought about by this connection with Ecology. Copyright © 2017 The Author. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Scenarios of Earth system change in western Canada: Conceptual understanding and process insights from the Changing Cold Regions Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

DeBeer, C. M.; Wheater, H. S.; Pomeroy, J. W.; Stewart, R. E.; Turetsky, M. R.; Baltzer, J. L.; Pietroniro, A.; Marsh, P.; Carey, S.; Howard, A.; Barr, A.; Elshamy, M.

2017-12-01

The interior of western Canada has been experiencing rapid, widespread, and severe hydroclimatic change in recent decades, and this is projected to continue in the future. To better assess future hydrological, cryospheric and ecological states and fluxes under future climates, a regional hydroclimate project was formed under the auspices of the Global Energy and Water Exchanges (GEWEX) project of the World Climate Research Programme; the Changing Cold Regions Network (CCRN; www.ccrnetwork.ca) aims to understand, diagnose, and predict interactions among the changing Earth system components at multiple spatial scales over the Mackenzie and Saskatchewan River basins of western Canada. A particular challenge is in applying land surface and hydrological models under future climates, as system changes and cold regions process interactions are not often straightforward, and model structures and parameterizations based on historical observations and understanding of contemporary system functioning may not adequately capture these complexities. To address this and provide guidance and direction to the modelling community, CCRN has drawn insights from a multi-disciplinary perspective on the process controls and system trajectories to develop a set of feasible scenarios of change for the 21st century across the region. This presentation will describe CCRN's efforts towards formalizing these insights and applying them in a large-scale modelling context. This will address what are seen as the most critical processes and key drivers affecting hydrological, cryospheric and ecological change, how these will most likely evolve in the coming decades, and how these are parameterized and incorporated as future scenarios for terrestrial ecology, hydrological functioning, permafrost state, glaciers, agriculture, and water management.

Characterizing the next-generation matrix and basic reproduction number in ecological epidemiology.

PubMed

Roberts, M G; Heesterbeek, J A P

2013-03-01

We address the interaction of ecological processes, such as consumer-resource relationships and competition, and the epidemiology of infectious diseases spreading in ecosystems. Modelling such interactions seems essential to understand the dynamics of infectious agents in communities consisting of interacting host and non-host species. We show how the usual epidemiological next-generation matrix approach to characterize invasion into multi-host communities can be extended to calculate R₀, and how this relates to the ecological community matrix. We then present two simple examples to illustrate this approach. The first of these is a model of the rinderpest, wildebeest, grass interaction, where our inferred dynamics qualitatively matches the observed phenomena that occurred after the eradication of rinderpest from the Serengeti ecosystem in the 1980s. The second example is a prey-predator system, where both species are hosts of the same pathogen. It is shown that regions for the parameter values exist where the two host species are only able to coexist when the pathogen is present to mediate the ecological interaction.

Cost-Sharing of Ecological Construction Based on Trapezoidal Intuitionistic Fuzzy Cooperative Games

PubMed Central

Liu, Jiacai; Zhao, Wenjian

2016-01-01

There exist some fuzziness and uncertainty in the process of ecological construction. The aim of this paper is to develop a direct and an effective simplified method for obtaining the cost-sharing scheme when some interested parties form a cooperative coalition to improve the ecological environment of Min River together. Firstly, we propose the solution concept of the least square prenucleolus of cooperative games with coalition values expressed by trapezoidal intuitionistic fuzzy numbers. Then, based on the square of the distance in the numerical value between two trapezoidal intuitionistic fuzzy numbers, we establish a corresponding quadratic programming model to obtain the least square prenucleolus, which can effectively avoid the information distortion and uncertainty enlargement brought about by the subtraction of trapezoidal intuitionistic fuzzy numbers. Finally, we give a numerical example about the cost-sharing of ecological construction in Fujian Province in China to show the validity, applicability, and advantages of the proposed model and method. PMID:27834830

Interpreting the Process behind Endemism in China by Integrating the Phylogeography and Ecological Niche Models of the Stachyridopsis ruficeps

PubMed Central

Liu, Huatao; Wang, Wenjuan; Song, Gang; Qu, Yanhua; Li, Shou-Hsien; Fjeldså, Jon; Lei, Fumin

2012-01-01

An area of endemism (AOE) is a complex expression of the ecological and evolutionary history of a species. Here we aim to address the principal drivers of avian diversification in shaping patterns of endemism in China by integrating genetic, ecological, and distributional data on the Red-headed Tree Babbler (Stachyridopsis ruficeps), which is distributed across the eastern Himalayas and south China. We sequenced two mtDNA markers from 182 individuals representing all three of the primary AOEs in China. Phylogenetic inferences were used to reconstruct intraspecific phylogenetic relationships. Divergence time and population demography were estimated to gain insight into the evolutionary history of the species. We used Ecological niche modeling to predict species’ distributions during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and in the present. Finally, we also used two quantitative tests, an identity test and background test to assess the similarity of ecological niche preferences between adjacent lineages. We found five primary reciprocally monophyletic clades, typically separated approximately 0.2–2.27 MYA, of which three were deeply isolated endemic lineages located in the three AOEs. All phylogroups were detected to have undergone population expansion during the past 0.3 MY. Niche models showed discontinuous habitats, and there were three barriers of less suitable habitat during the LGM and in modern times. Ecoclimatic niches may diverge significantly even over recent timescales, as each phylogroup had a unique distribution, and unique niche characteristics. Vicariant events associated with geographical and ecological barriers, glacial refuges and ecological differentiation may be the main drivers forming the pattern of endemism in China. PMID:23056441

Thresholds for conservation and management: structured decision making as a conceptual framework

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nichols, James D.; Eaton, Mitchell J.; Martin, Julien; Edited by Guntenspergen, Glenn R.

2014-01-01

changes in system dynamics. They are frequently incorporated into ecological models used to project system responses to management actions. Utility thresholds are components of management objectives and are values of state or performance variables at which small changes yield substantial changes in the value of the management outcome. Decision thresholds are values of system state variables at which small changes prompt changes in management actions in order to reach specified management objectives. Decision thresholds are derived from the other components of the decision process.We advocate a structured decision making (SDM) approach within which the following components are identified: objectives (possibly including utility thresholds), potential actions, models (possibly including ecological thresholds), monitoring program, and a solution algorithm (which produces decision thresholds). Adaptive resource management (ARM) is described as a special case of SDM developed for recurrent decision problems that are characterized by uncertainty. We believe that SDM, in general, and ARM, in particular, provide good approaches to conservation and management. Use of SDM and ARM also clarifies the distinct roles of ecological thresholds, utility thresholds, and decision thresholds in informed decision processes.

Discerning direct and mediated effects of ecological structures and processes on adolescents' educational outcomes.

PubMed

Benner, Aprile D; Graham, Sandra; Mistry, Rashmita S

2008-05-01

This short-term longitudinal study examined the relations among family and school characteristics, family-level processes (youth perceptions of parent-adolescent interactions), school-level processes (youth perceptions of school belonging, school climate), adolescents' school engagement, and later academic performance. Participants were an ethnically diverse, urban sample of 1,120 9th-grade students (M age = 14.6 years). The structural characteristics of families and schools influenced the proximal processes that occurred therein, and these proximal processes, in turn, influenced students' proximal (i.e., engagement) and distal educational outcomes (i.e., grades in school). Moreover, the structural characteristics of families and schools influenced proximal and distal outcomes indirectly through their influence on the proximal processes. The multimediated ecological model suggested that intervening at the process level may be a successful means of improving both adolescents' engagement in school and their subsequent school performance. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2008 APA, all rights reserved).

Towards more accurate isoscapes encouraging results from wine, water and marijuana data/model and model/model comparisons.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

West, J. B.; Ehleringer, J. R.; Cerling, T.

2006-12-01

Understanding how the biosphere responds to change it at the heart of biogeochemistry, ecology, and other Earth sciences. The dramatic increase in human population and technological capacity over the past 200 years or so has resulted in numerous, simultaneous changes to biosphere structure and function. This, then, has lead to increased urgency in the scientific community to try to understand how systems have already responded to these changes, and how they might do so in the future. Since all biospheric processes exhibit some patchiness or patterns over space, as well as time, we believe that understanding the dynamic interactions between natural systems and human technological manipulations can be improved if these systems are studied in an explicitly spatial context. We present here results of some of our efforts to model the spatial variation in the stable isotope ratios (δ2H and δ18O) of plants over large spatial extents, and how these spatial model predictions compare to spatially explicit data. Stable isotopes trace and record ecological processes and as such, if modeled correctly over Earth's surface allow us insights into changes in biosphere states and processes across spatial scales. The data-model comparisons show good agreement, in spite of the remaining uncertainties (e.g., plant source water isotopic composition). For example, inter-annual changes in climate are recorded in wine stable isotope ratios. Also, a much simpler model of leaf water enrichment driven with spatially continuous global rasters of precipitation and climate normals largely agrees with complex GCM modeling that includes leaf water δ18O. Our results suggest that modeling plant stable isotope ratios across large spatial extents may be done with reasonable accuracy, including over time. These spatial maps, or isoscapes, can now be utilized to help understand spatially distributed data, as well as to help guide future studies designed to understand ecological change across landscapes.

Hydrological modeling of upper Indus Basin and assessment of deltaic ecology

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Managing water resources is mostly required at watershed scale where the complex hydrology processes and interactions linking land surface, climatic factors and human activities can be studied. Geographical Information System based watershed model; Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is applied f...

Simulating natural selection in landscape genetics

Treesearch

E. L. Landguth; S. A. Cushman; N. Johnson

2012-01-01

Linking landscape effects to key evolutionary processes through individual organism movement and natural selection is essential to provide a foundation for evolutionary landscape genetics. Of particular importance is determining how spatially- explicit, individual-based models differ from classic population genetics and evolutionary ecology models based on ideal...

Modelling dendritic ecological networks in space: anintegrated network perspective

USGS Publications Warehouse

Peterson, Erin E.; Ver Hoef, Jay M.; Isaak, Dan J.; Falke, Jeffrey A.; Fortin, Marie-Josée; Jordon, Chris E.; McNyset, Kristina; Monestiez, Pascal; Ruesch, Aaron S.; Sengupta, Aritra; Som, Nicholas; Steel, E. Ashley; Theobald, David M.; Torgersen, Christian E.; Wenger, Seth J.

2013-01-01

the context of stream ecology. Within this context, we summarise the key innovations of a new family of spatial statistical models that describe spatial relationships in DENs. Finally, we discuss how different network analyses may be combined to address more complex and novel research questions. While our main focus is streams, the taxonomy of network analyses is also relevant anywhere spatial patterns in both network and 2-D space can be used to explore the influence of multi-scale processes on biota and their habitat (e.g. plant morphology and pest infestation, or preferential migration along stream or road corridors).

SNOWMIP2: An evaluation of forest snow process simulations

Treesearch

Richard Essery; Nick Rutter; John Pomeroy; Robert Baxter; Manfred Stahli; David Gustafsson; Alan Barr; Paul Bartlett; Kelly Elder

2009-01-01

Models of terrestrial snow cover, or snow modules within land surface models, are used in many meteorological, hydrological, and ecological applications. Such models were developed first, and have achieved their greatest sophistication, for snow in open areas; however, huge tracts of the Northern Hemisphere both have seasonal snow cover and are forested (Fig. 1)....

Climate change and stream temperature projections in the Columbia River basin: habitat implications of spatial variation in hydrologic drivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ficklin, D. L.; Barnhart, B. L.; Knouft, J. H.; Stewart, I. T.; Maurer, E. P.; Letsinger, S. L.; Whittaker, G. W.

2014-12-01

Water temperature is a primary physical factor regulating the persistence and distribution of aquatic taxa. Considering projected increases in air temperature and changes in precipitation in the coming century, accurate assessment of suitable thermal habitats in freshwater systems is critical for predicting aquatic species' responses to changes in climate and for guiding adaptation strategies. We use a hydrologic model coupled with a stream temperature model and downscaled general circulation model outputs to explore the spatially and temporally varying changes in stream temperature for the late 21st century at the subbasin and ecological province scale for the Columbia River basin (CRB). On average, stream temperatures are projected to increase 3.5 °C for the spring, 5.2 °C for the summer, 2.7 °C for the fall, and 1.6 °C for the winter. While results indicate changes in stream temperature are correlated with changes in air temperature, our results also capture the important, and often ignored, influence of hydrological processes on changes in stream temperature. Decreases in future snowcover will result in increased thermal sensitivity within regions that were previously buffered by the cooling effect of flow originating as snowmelt. Other hydrological components, such as precipitation, surface runoff, lateral soil water flow, and groundwater inflow, are negatively correlated to increases in stream temperature depending on the ecological province and season. At the ecological province scale, the largest increase in annual stream temperature was within the Mountain Snake ecological province, which is characterized by migratory coldwater fish species. Stream temperature changes varied seasonally with the largest projected stream temperature increases occurring during the spring and summer for all ecological provinces. Our results indicate that stream temperatures are driven by local processes and ultimately require a physically explicit modeling approach to accurately characterize the habitat regulating the distribution and diversity of aquatic taxa.

Climate change and stream temperature projections in the Columbia River Basin: biological implications of spatial variation in hydrologic drivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ficklin, D. L.; Barnhart, B. L.; Knouft, J. H.; Stewart, I. T.; Maurer, E. P.; Letsinger, S. L.; Whittaker, G. W.

2014-06-01

Water temperature is a primary physical factor regulating the persistence and distribution of aquatic taxa. Considering projected increases in temperature and changes in precipitation in the coming century, accurate assessment of suitable thermal habitat in freshwater systems is critical for predicting aquatic species responses to changes in climate and for guiding adaptation strategies. We use a hydrologic model coupled with a stream temperature model and downscaled General Circulation Model outputs to explore the spatially and temporally varying changes in stream temperature at the subbasin and ecological province scale for the Columbia River Basin. On average, stream temperatures are projected to increase 3.5 °C for the spring, 5.2 °C for the summer, 2.7 °C for the fall, and 1.6 °C for the winter. While results indicate changes in stream temperature are correlated with changes in air temperature, our results also capture the important, and often ignored, influence of hydrological processes on changes in stream temperature. Decreases in future snowcover will result in increased thermal sensitivity within regions that were previously buffered by the cooling effect of flow originating as snowmelt. Other hydrological components, such as precipitation, surface runoff, lateral soil flow, and groundwater, are negatively correlated to increases in stream temperature depending on the season and ecological province. At the ecological province scale, the largest increase in annual stream temperature was within the Mountain Snake ecological province, which is characterized by non-migratory coldwater fish species. Stream temperature changes varied seasonally with the largest projected stream temperature increases occurring during the spring and summer for all ecological provinces. Our results indicate that stream temperatures are driven by local processes and ultimately require a physically-explicit modeling approach to accurately characterize the habitat regulating the distribution and diversity of aquatic taxa.

[Identification of coupling relationship between urbanization and ecological environment in Jilin from entropy change perspective].

PubMed

Sun, Ping-Jun; Xiu, Chun-Liang; Zhang, Tian-Jiao

2014-03-01

By using the entropy change equation of the second law of thermodynamics, entropy method and PSE model, this article made an analysis on coupling relationship between urbanization and ecological environment in Jilin Province from 2001 to 2011. In the study period, the urbanization development had been out of normal evolution track: The economic urbanization and space urbanization dominated the whole urbanization process, while population urbanization was neglected too seriously, with an apparent characteristic of extensive and inefficient input of resources (especially land resource). According to the levels of ecological environment on the basis of PSE model, not only the pressure index, sensitivity index and the elasticity index, but also the comprehensive index showed considerable growth with obvious stage characteristics: ascending-descending-ascending. The total entropy values of the urbanization were less than zero during the time, which meant an unstable rising curve. While the total trophy values of the ecological environment varied below and above zero, and 2003, 2006, 2010 and 2011 were the "turning points", reflecting the instability of the ecological environment. The coupling total entropy values between urbanization and ecological environment had the same characteristics with the ecological environment: the same "turning points" and shape of the curve, in which, the "turning points" corresponded to the type of antagonistic evolution pattern, while the rest of years responded to the type of coordination evolution pattern.

Warming Climate and Changing Societies - a Challenge or an Opportunity for Reindeer Herding?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Käyhkö, J.; Horstkotte, T.; Kivinen, S.; Vehmas, J.; Oksanen, L.; Forbes, B. C.; Johansen, B.; Jepsen, J. U.; Markkola, A.; Pulliainen, J.; Olofsson, J.; Oksanen, T.; Utsi, T. A.; Korpimäki, E.; Menard, C.; Ericson, L.

2015-12-01

The Arctic region will warm more rapidly than the global mean, influencing dramatically the northern ecosystems. Simultaneously, our societies transform towards urbanized, highly educated, service-based culture, where a decreasing population will gain its livelihood from primary production. We study various ecosystem interactions in a changing climate and integrate these with reindeer husbandry and the indigenous Sámi culture dependent on it1. Potential climate impacts include the transformation of arctic-alpine tundra to dense scrubland with conceivable consequences to reindeer husbandry, but also global warming due to decreasing albedo. The social-ecological system (SES) of reindeer husbandry includes administrative and ecological processes that do not always correspond (Figure 1). Consequently, management priorities and administration may conflict with local social and ecological processes, bringing about risks of environmental degradation, loss of biodiversity and defeat of traditional livelihoods. We hypothesize the plausibility to support the indigenous reindeer herding livelihood against rapid external changes by utilizing the migratory reindeer grazing system of the Sámi as a management tool for sustaining the high-albedo tundra and mitigating global warming. Our first-of-a-kind satellite-based high resolution vegetation map covering Northern Fennoscandia allows detailed management plans. Our ecological research demonstrates the important role of herbivory on arctic vegetation communities. Interactive workshops with reindeer herders offer indigenous knowledge of state and changes of the ecosystems, and reflect the threats and expectations of the herders. We are currently building models of the complex social-ecological system of Northern Fennoscandia and will report the first findings of the exercise. 1 www.ncoetundra.utu.fi Figure 1. The scales of administrative and ecological processes do not always coincide. This may bring about challenges in managing the social-ecological systems.

Some directions in ecological theory.

PubMed

Kendall, Bruce E

2015-12-01

The role of theory within ecology has changed dramatically in recent decades. Once primarily a source of qualitative conceptual framing, ecological theories and models are now often used to develop quantitative explanations of empirical patterns and to project future dynamics of specific ecological systems. In this essay, I recount my own experience of this transformation, in which accelerating computing power and the widespread incorporation of stochastic processes into ecological theory combined to create some novel integration of mathematical and statistical models. This stronger integration drives theory towards incorporating more biological realism, and I explore ways in which we can grapple with that realism to generate new general theoretical insights. This enhanced realism, in turn, may lead to frameworks for projecting ecological responses to anthropogenic change, which is, arguably, the central challenge for 21st-century ecology. In an era of big data and synthesis, ecologists are increasingly seeking to infer causality from observational data; but conventional biometry provides few tools for this project. This is a realm where theorists can and should play an important role, and I close by pointing towards some analytical and philosophical approaches developed in our sister discipline of economics that address this very problem. While I make no grand prognostications about the likely discoveries of ecological theory over the coming century, you will find in this essay a scattering of more or less far-fetched ideas that I, at least, think are interesting and (possibly) fruitful directions for our field.

Empirical Succession Mapping and Data Assimilation to Constrain Demographic Processes in an Ecosystem Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kelly, R.; Andrews, T.; Dietze, M.

2015-12-01

Shifts in ecological communities in response to environmental change have implications for biodiversity, ecosystem function, and feedbacks to global climate change. Community composition is fundamentally the product of demography, but demographic processes are simplified or missing altogether in many ecosystem, Earth system, and species distribution models. This limitation arises in part because demographic data are noisy and difficult to synthesize. As a consequence, demographic processes are challenging to formulate in models in the first place, and to verify and constrain with data thereafter. Here, we used a novel analysis of the USFS Forest Inventory Analysis to improve the representation of demography in an ecosystem model. First, we created an Empirical Succession Mapping (ESM) based on ~1 million individual tree observations from the eastern U.S. to identify broad demographic patterns related to forest succession and disturbance. We used results from this analysis to guide reformulation of the Ecosystem Demography model (ED), an existing forest simulator with explicit tree demography. Results from the ESM reveal a coherent, cyclic pattern of change in temperate forest tree size and density over the eastern U.S. The ESM captures key ecological processes including succession, self-thinning, and gap-filling, and quantifies the typical trajectory of these processes as a function of tree size and stand density. Recruitment is most rapid in early-successional stands with low density and mean diameter, but slows as stand density increases; mean diameter increases until thinning promotes recruitment of small-diameter trees. Strikingly, the upper bound of size-density space that emerges in the ESM conforms closely to the self-thinning power law often observed in ecology. The ED model obeys this same overall size-density boundary, but overestimates plot-level growth, mortality, and fecundity rates, leading to unrealistic emergent demographic patterns. In particular, the current ED formulation cannot capture steady state dynamics evident in the ESM. Ongoing efforts are aimed at reformulating ED to more closely approach overall forest dynamics evident in the ESM, and then assimilating inventory data to constrain model parameters and initial conditions.

Digging deeper on "deep" learning: A computational ecology approach.

PubMed

Buscema, Massimo; Sacco, Pier Luigi

2017-01-01

We propose an alternative approach to "deep" learning that is based on computational ecologies of structurally diverse artificial neural networks, and on dynamic associative memory responses to stimuli. Rather than focusing on massive computation of many different examples of a single situation, we opt for model-based learning and adaptive flexibility. Cross-fertilization of learning processes across multiple domains is the fundamental feature of human intelligence that must inform "new" artificial intelligence.

Purpose, processes, partnerships, and products: four Ps to advance participatory socio-environmental modeling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gray, Steven; Voinov, Alexey; Paolisso, Michael; Jordan, Rebecca; BenDor, Todd; Bommel, Pierre; Glynn, Pierre D.; Hedelin, Beatrice; Hubacek, Klaus; Introne, Josh; Kolagani, Nagesh; Laursen, Bethany; Prell, Christina; Schmitt-Olabisi, Laura; Singer, Alison; Sterling, Eleanor J.; Zellner, Moira

2018-01-01

Including stakeholders in environmental model building and analysis is an increasingly popular approach to understanding ecological change. This is because stakeholders often hold valuable knowledge about socio-environmental dynamics and collaborative forms of modeling produce important boundary objects used to collectively reason about environmental problems. Although the number of participatory modeling (PM) case studies and the number of researchers adopting these approaches has grown in recent years, the lack of standardized reporting and limited reproducibility have prevented PM's establishment and advancement as a cohesive field of study. We suggest a four-dimensional framework (4P) that includes reporting on dimensions of (1) the Purpose for selecting a PM approach (the why); (2) the Process by which the public was involved in model building or evaluation (the how); (3) the Partnerships formed (the who); and (4) the Products that resulted from these efforts (the what). We highlight four case studies that use common PM software-based approaches (fuzzy cognitive mapping, agent-based modeling, system dynamics, and participatory geospatial modeling) to understand human–environment interactions and the consequences of ecological changes, including bushmeat hunting in Tanzania and Cameroon, agricultural production and deforestation in Zambia, and groundwater management in India. We demonstrate how standardizing communication about PM case studies can lead to innovation and new insights about model-based reasoning in support of ecological policy development. We suggest that our 4P framework and reporting approach provides a way for new hypotheses to be identified and tested in the growing field of PM.

Comprehensive evaluation of ecological security in mining area based on PSR-ANP-GRAY.

PubMed

He, Gang; Yu, Baohua; Li, Shuzhou; Zhu, Yanna

2017-09-06

With the large exploitation of mineral resources, a series of problems have appeared in the ecological environment of the mining area. Therefore, evaluating the ecological security of mining area is of great significance to promote its healthy development. In this paper, the evaluation index system of ecological security in mining area was constructed from three dimensions of nature, society and economy, combined with Pressure-State-Response framework model. Then network analytic hierarchy process and GRAY relational analysis method were used to evaluate the ecological security of the region, and the weighted correlation degree of ecological security was calculated through the index data of a coal mine from 2012 to 2016 in China. The results show that the ecological security in the coal mine area is on the rise as a whole, though it alternatively rose and dropped from 2012 to 2016. Among them, the ecological security of the study mining area is at the general security level from 2012 to 2015, and at a relatively safe level in 2016. It shows that the ecological environment of the study mining area can basically meet the requirement of the survival and development of the enterprises.

[Landscape connectivity of waterbody network in the new reclamation region of Lianyungang based on effective distance model].

PubMed

Qiao, Fu-Zhen; Zheng, Zhong-Ming; Li, Jia-Lin; Zheng, Wen-Bing

2014-08-01

Landscape connectivity is an important indicator to measure effectiveness of landscape ecological services. Waterbody connectivity in Lianyun New City, the new reclamation region of Lianyungang, was investigated based on GIS technology and effective distance model. The results showed that the total connectivity of waterbodies was poor in Lanyun New City. Connectivity of patches was related to characteristics of ecological process, ecological services value and spatial arrangement. The higher the ecosystem services value of patches was, the greater its contribution to the overall water landscape connectivity was. Some patches with long strip structure played a key role to improve the landscape connectivity. By classifying the importance of connectivity and functional groups of waterbody patches, planning of waterbodies in Lianyun New City conformed to the theory of non-substitutable pattern developed by Forman. Waterbody patches with corresponding functions should be considered with priority when planning and building a new city. The present study demonstrated that connectivity of patches should be an important factor to be considered in ecological landscape planning. Construction of ecological corridors should not only take the number of ecological landscapes into consideration, but also pay attention to spatial arrangement of landscapes in order to improve the overall landscape connectivity.

Species, functional groups, and thresholds in ecological resilience

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sundstrom, Shana M.; Allen, Craig R.; Barichievy, Chris

2012-01-01

The cross-scale resilience model states that ecological resilience is generated in part from the distribution of functions within and across scales in a system. Resilience is a measure of a system's ability to remain organized around a particular set of mutually reinforcing processes and structures, known as a regime. We define scale as the geographic extent over which a process operates and the frequency with which a process occurs. Species can be categorized into functional groups that are a link between ecosystem processes and structures and ecological resilience. We applied the cross-scale resilience model to avian species in a grassland ecosystem. A species’ morphology is shaped in part by its interaction with ecological structure and pattern, so animal body mass reflects the spatial and temporal distribution of resources. We used the log-transformed rank-ordered body masses of breeding birds associated with grasslands to identify aggregations and discontinuities in the distribution of those body masses. We assessed cross-scale resilience on the basis of 3 metrics: overall number of functional groups, number of functional groups within an aggregation, and the redundancy of functional groups across aggregations. We assessed how the loss of threatened species would affect cross-scale resilience by removing threatened species from the data set and recalculating values of the 3 metrics. We also determined whether more function was retained than expected after the loss of threatened species by comparing observed loss with simulated random loss in a Monte Carlo process. The observed distribution of function compared with the random simulated loss of function indicated that more functionality in the observed data set was retained than expected. On the basis of our results, we believe an ecosystem with a full complement of species can sustain considerable species losses without affecting the distribution of functions within and across aggregations, although ecological resilience is reduced. We propose that the mechanisms responsible for shaping discontinuous distributions of body mass and the nonrandom distribution of functions may also shape species losses such that local extinctions will be nonrandom with respect to the retention and distribution of functions and that the distribution of function within and across aggregations will be conserved despite extinctions.

Dispersal-Based Microbial Community Assembly Decreases Biogeochemical Function

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Graham, Emily B.; Stegen, James C.

Ecological mechanisms influence relationships among microbial communities, which in turn impact biogeochemistry. In particular, microbial communities are assembled by deterministic (e.g., selection) and stochastic (e.g., dispersal) processes, and the relative balance of these two process types is hypothesized to alter the influence of microbial communities over biogeochemical function. We used an ecological simulation model to evaluate this hypothesis, defining biogeochemical function generically to represent any biogeochemical reaction of interest. We assembled receiving communities under different levels of dispersal from a source community that was assembled purely by selection. The dispersal scenarios ranged from no dispersal (i.e., selection-only) to dispersal ratesmore » high enough to overwhelm selection (i.e., homogenizing dispersal). We used an aggregate measure of community fitness to infer a given community’s biogeochemical function relative to other communities. We also used ecological null models to further link the relative influence of deterministic assembly to function. We found that increasing rates of dispersal decrease biogeochemical function by increasing the proportion of maladapted taxa in a local community. Niche breadth was also a key determinant of biogeochemical function, suggesting a tradeoff between the function of generalist and specialist species. Finally, we show that microbial assembly processes exert greater influence over biogeochemical function when there is variation in the relative contributions of dispersal and selection among communities. Taken together, our results highlight the influence of spatial processes on biogeochemical function and indicate the need to account for such effects in models that aim to predict biogeochemical function under future environmental scenarios.« less

Dispersal-Based Microbial Community Assembly Decreases Biogeochemical Function

DOE PAGES

Graham, Emily B.; Stegen, James C.

2017-11-01

Ecological mechanisms influence relationships among microbial communities, which in turn impact biogeochemistry. In particular, microbial communities are assembled by deterministic (e.g., selection) and stochastic (e.g., dispersal) processes, and the relative balance of these two process types is hypothesized to alter the influence of microbial communities over biogeochemical function. We used an ecological simulation model to evaluate this hypothesis, defining biogeochemical function generically to represent any biogeochemical reaction of interest. We assembled receiving communities under different levels of dispersal from a source community that was assembled purely by selection. The dispersal scenarios ranged from no dispersal (i.e., selection-only) to dispersal ratesmore » high enough to overwhelm selection (i.e., homogenizing dispersal). We used an aggregate measure of community fitness to infer a given community’s biogeochemical function relative to other communities. We also used ecological null models to further link the relative influence of deterministic assembly to function. We found that increasing rates of dispersal decrease biogeochemical function by increasing the proportion of maladapted taxa in a local community. Niche breadth was also a key determinant of biogeochemical function, suggesting a tradeoff between the function of generalist and specialist species. Finally, we show that microbial assembly processes exert greater influence over biogeochemical function when there is variation in the relative contributions of dispersal and selection among communities. Taken together, our results highlight the influence of spatial processes on biogeochemical function and indicate the need to account for such effects in models that aim to predict biogeochemical function under future environmental scenarios.« less

Stationary moments, diffusion limits, and extinction times for logistic growth with random catastrophes.

PubMed

Schlomann, Brandon H

2018-06-06

A central problem in population ecology is understanding the consequences of stochastic fluctuations. Analytically tractable models with Gaussian driving noise have led to important, general insights, but they fail to capture rare, catastrophic events, which are increasingly observed at scales ranging from global fisheries to intestinal microbiota. Due to mathematical challenges, growth processes with random catastrophes are less well characterized and it remains unclear how their consequences differ from those of Gaussian processes. In the face of a changing climate and predicted increases in ecological catastrophes, as well as increased interest in harnessing microbes for therapeutics, these processes have never been more relevant. To better understand them, I revisit here a differential equation model of logistic growth coupled to density-independent catastrophes that arrive as a Poisson process, and derive new analytic results that reveal its statistical structure. First, I derive exact expressions for the model's stationary moments, revealing a single effective catastrophe parameter that largely controls low order statistics. Then, I use weak convergence theorems to construct its Gaussian analog in a limit of frequent, small catastrophes, keeping the stationary population mean constant for normalization. Numerically computing statistics along this limit shows how they transform as the dynamics shifts from catastrophes to diffusions, enabling quantitative comparisons. For example, the mean time to extinction increases monotonically by orders of magnitude, demonstrating significantly higher extinction risk under catastrophes than under diffusions. Together, these results provide insight into a wide range of stochastic dynamical systems important for ecology and conservation. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Near Real-time Ecological Forecasting of Peatland Responses to Warming and CO2 Treatment through EcoPAD-SPRUCE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Y.; Jiang, J.; Stacy, M.; Ricciuto, D. M.; Hanson, P. J.; Sundi, N.; Luo, Y.

2016-12-01

Ecological forecasting is critical in various aspects of our coupled human-nature systems, such as disaster risk reduction, natural resource management and climate change mitigation. Novel advancements are in urgent need to deepen our understandings of ecosystem dynamics, boost the predictive capacity of ecology, and provide timely and effective information for decision-makers in a rapidly changing world. Our Ecological Platform for Assimilation of Data (EcoPAD) facilitates the integration of current best knowledge from models, manipulative experimentations, observations and other modern techniques and provides both near real-time and long-term forecasting of ecosystem dynamics. As a case study, the web-based EcoPAD platform synchronizes real- or near real-time field measurements from the Spruce and Peatland Responses Under Climatic and Environmental Change Experiment (SPRUCE), a whole ecosystem warming and CO2 enrichment treatment experiment, assimilates multiple data streams into process based models, enhances timely feedback between modelers and experimenters, and ultimately improves ecosystem forecasting and makes best utilization of current knowledge. In addition to enable users to (i) estimate model parameters or state variables, (ii) quantify uncertainty of estimated parameters and projected states of ecosystems, (iii) evaluate model structures, (iv) assess sampling strategies, and (v) conduct ecological forecasting, EcoPAD-SPRUCE automated the workflow from real-time data acquisition, model simulation to result visualization. EcoPAD-SPRUCE promotes seamless feedback between modelers and experimenters, hand in hand to make better forecasting of future changes. The framework of EcoPAD-SPRUCE (with flexible API, Application Programming Interface) is easily portable and will benefit scientific communities, policy makers as well as the general public.

[Environmental quality assessment of regional agro-ecosystem in Loess Plateau].

PubMed

Wang, Limei; Meng, Fanping; Zheng, Jiyong; Wang, Zhonglin

2004-03-01

Based on the detection and analysis of the contamination status of agro-ecosystem with apple-crops intercropping as the dominant cropping model in Loess Plateau, the individual factor and comprehensive environmental quality were assessed by multilevel fuzzy synthetic evaluation model, analytical hierarchy process(AHP), and improved standard weight deciding method. The results showed that the quality of soil, water and agricultural products was grade I, the social economical environmental quality was grade II, the ecological environmental quality was grade III, and the comprehensive environmental quality was grade I. The regional agro-ecosystem dominated by apple-crops intercropping was not the best model for the ecological benefits, but had the better social economical benefits.

Supercomputer modeling of hydrogen combustion in rocket engines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Betelin, V. B.; Nikitin, V. F.; Altukhov, D. I.; Dushin, V. R.; Koo, Jaye

2013-08-01

Hydrogen being an ecological fuel is very attractive now for rocket engines designers. However, peculiarities of hydrogen combustion kinetics, the presence of zones of inverse dependence of reaction rate on pressure, etc. prevents from using hydrogen engines in all stages not being supported by other types of engines, which often brings the ecological gains back to zero from using hydrogen. Computer aided design of new effective and clean hydrogen engines needs mathematical tools for supercomputer modeling of hydrogen-oxygen components mixing and combustion in rocket engines. The paper presents the results of developing verification and validation of mathematical model making it possible to simulate unsteady processes of ignition and combustion in rocket engines.

Behavior of the gypsy moth life system model and development of synoptic model formulations

Treesearch

J. J. Colbert; Xu Rumei

1991-01-01

Aims of the research: The gypsy moth life system model (GMLSM) is a complex model which incorporates numerous components (both biotic and abiotic) and ecological processes. It is a detailed simulation model which has much biological reality. However, it has not yet been tested with life system data. For such complex models, evaluation and testing cannot be adequately...

Climatic and biotic stochasticity: disparate causes of convergent demographies in rare, sympatric plants.

PubMed

Fox, Laurel R

2007-12-01

Species with known demographies may be used as proxies, or approximate models, to predict vital rates and ecological properties of target species that either have not been studied or are species for which data may be difficult to obtain. These extrapolations assume that model and target species with similar properties respond in the same ways to the same ecological factors, that they have similar population dynamics, and that the similarity of vital rates reflects analogous responses to the same factors. I used two rare, sympatric annual plants (sand gilia [Gilia tenuiflora arenaria] and Monterey spineflower [Chorizanthe pungens pungens]) to test these assumptions experimentally. The vital rates of these species are similar and strongly correlated with rainfall, and I added water and/or prevented herbivore access to experimental plots. Their survival and reproduction were driven by different, largely stochastic factors and processes: sand gilia by herbivory and Monterey spineflower by rainfall. Because the causal agents and processes generating similar demographic patterns were species specific, these results demonstrate, both theoretically and empirically, that it is critical to identify the ecological processes generating observed effects and that experimental manipulations are usually needed to determine causal mechanisms. Without such evidence to identify mechanisms, extrapolations among species may lead to counterproductive management and conservation practices.

Simulating effects of fire on northern Rocky Mountain landscapes with the ecological process model FIRE-BGC.

PubMed

Keane, R E; Ryan, K C; Running, S W

1996-03-01

A mechanistic, biogeochemical succession model, FIRE-BGC, was used to investigate the role of fire on long-term landscape dynamics in northern Rocky Mountain coniferous forests of Glacier National Park, Montana, USA. FIRE-BGC is an individual-tree model-created by merging the gap-phase process-based model FIRESUM with the mechanistic ecosystem biogeochemical model FOREST-BGC-that has mixed spatial and temporal resolution in its simulation architecture. Ecological processes that act at a landscape level, such as fire and seed dispersal, are simulated annually from stand and topographic information. Stand-level processes, such as tree establishment, growth and mortality, organic matter accumulation and decomposition, and undergrowth plant dynamics are simulated both daily and annually. Tree growth is mechanistically modeled based on the ecosystem process approach of FOREST-BGC where carbon is fixed daily by forest canopy photosynthesis at the stand level. Carbon allocated to the tree stem at the end of the year generates the corresponding diameter and height growth. The model also explicitly simulates fire behavior and effects on landscape characteristics. We simulated the effects of fire on ecosystem characteristics of net primary productivity, evapotranspiration, standing crop biomass, nitrogen cycling and leaf area index over 200 years for the 50,000-ha McDonald Drainage in Glacier National Park. Results show increases in net primary productivity and available nitrogen when fires are included in the simulation. Standing crop biomass and evapotranspiration decrease under a fire regime. Shade-intolerant species dominate the landscape when fires are excluded. Model tree increment predictions compared well with field data.

An Ecological Approach to Learning Dynamics

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Normak, Peeter; Pata, Kai; Kaipainen, Mauri

2012-01-01

New approaches to emergent learner-directed learning design can be strengthened with a theoretical framework that considers learning as a dynamic process. We propose an approach that models a learning process using a set of spatial concepts: learning space, position of a learner, niche, perspective, step, path, direction of a step and step…

Design and Implementation Skills for Social Innovation.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tornatzky, Louis G.; Fairweather, George W.

New models of research and training combined with dissemination techniques can contribute to relevant social change. The Ecological Psychology Program at Michigan State University, a graduate training program which focuses on model building and implementation research, offers ideas on the plausability of social programming. The process would…

Modelling ecological systems in a changing world

PubMed Central

Evans, Matthew R.

2012-01-01

The world is changing at an unprecedented rate. In such a situation, we need to understand the nature of the change and to make predictions about the way in which it might affect systems of interest; often we may also wish to understand what might be done to mitigate the predicted effects. In ecology, we usually make such predictions (or forecasts) by making use of mathematical models that describe the system and projecting them into the future, under changed conditions. Approaches emphasizing the desirability of simple models with analytical tractability and those that use assumed causal relationships derived statistically from data currently dominate ecological modelling. Although such models are excellent at describing the way in which a system has behaved, they are poor at predicting its future state, especially in novel conditions. In order to address questions about the impact of environmental change, and to understand what, if any, action might be taken to ameliorate it, ecologists need to develop the ability to project models into novel, future conditions. This will require the development of models based on understanding the processes that result in a system behaving the way it does, rather than relying on a description of the system, as a whole, remaining valid indefinitely. PMID:22144381

Improved global simulation of groundwater-ecosystem interactions via tight coupling of a dynamic global ecosystem model and a global hydrological model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Braakhekke, Maarten; Rebel, Karin; Dekker, Stefan; Smith, Benjamin; Sutanudjaja, Edwin; van Beek, Rens; van Kampenhout, Leo; Wassen, Martin

2017-04-01

In up to 30% of the global land surface ecosystems are potentially influenced by the presence of a shallow groundwater table. In these regions upward water flux by capillary rise increases soil moisture availability in the root zone, which has a strong effect on evapotranspiration, vegetation dynamics, and fluxes of carbon and nitrogen. Most global hydrological models and several land surface models simulate groundwater table dynamics and their effects on land surface processes. However, these models typically have relatively simplistic representation of vegetation and do not consider changes in vegetation type and structure. Dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs), describe land surface from an ecological perspective, combining detailed description of vegetation dynamics and structure, and biogeochemical processes and are thus more appropriate to simulate the ecological and biogeochemical effects of groundwater interactions. However, currently virtually all DGVMs ignore these effects, assuming that water tables are too deep to affect soil moisture in the root zone. We have implemented a tight coupling between the dynamic global ecosystem model LPJ-GUESS and the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB, which explicitly simulates groundwater dynamics. This coupled model allows us to explicitly account for groundwater effects on terrestrial ecosystem processes at global scale. Results of global simulations indicate that groundwater strongly influences fluxes of water, carbon and nitrogen, in many regions, adding up to a considerable effect at the global scale.

A Cognitive Ecological Model of Women’s Response to Male Sexual Coercion in Dating

PubMed Central

Nurius, Paula S.; Norris, Jeanette

2015-01-01

SUMMARY We offer a theoretical model that consolidates background, environmental, and intrapersonal variables related to women’s experience of sexual coercion in dating into a coherent ecological framework and present for the first time a cognitive analysis of the processes women use to formulate responses to sexual coercion. An underlying premise for this model is that a woman’s coping response to sexual coercion by an acquaintance is mediated through cognitive processing of background and situational influences. Because women encounter this form of sexual coercion in the context of relationships and situations that they presume will follow normative expectations (e.g., about making friends, socializing and dating), it is essential to consider normative processes of learning, cognitive mediation, and coping guiding their efforts to interpret and respond to this form of personal threat. Although acts of coercion unquestionably remain the responsibility of the perpetrator, a more complete understanding of the multilevel factors shaping women’s perception of and response to threats can strengthen future inquiry and prevention efforts. PMID:25729157

Spatial ecological processes and local factors predict the distribution and abundance of spawning by steelhead (Oncorhynchus mykiss) across a complex riverscape

USGS Publications Warehouse

Falke, Jeffrey A.; Dunham, Jason B.; Jordan, Christopher E.; McNyset, Kris M.; Reeves, Gordon H.

2013-01-01

Processes that influence habitat selection in landscapes involve the interaction of habitat composition and configuration and are particularly important for species with complex life cycles. We assessed the relative influence of landscape spatial processes and local habitat characteristics on patterns in the distribution and abundance of spawning steelhead (Oncorhynchus mykiss), a threatened salmonid fish, across ~15,000 stream km in the John Day River basin, Oregon, USA. We used hurdle regression and a multi-model information theoretic approach to identify the relative importance of covariates representing key aspects of the steelhead life cycle (e.g., site access, spawning habitat quality, juvenile survival) at two spatial scales: within 2-km long survey reaches (local sites) and ecological neighborhoods (5 km) surrounding the local sites. Based on Akaike’s Information Criterion, models that included covariates describing ecological neighborhoods provided the best description of the distribution and abundance of steelhead spawning given the data. Among these covariates, our representation of offspring survival (growing-season-degree-days, °C) had the strongest effect size (7x) relative to other predictors. Predictive performances of model-averaged composite and neighborhood-only models were better than a site-only model based on both occurrence (percentage of sites correctly classified = 0.80±0.03 SD, 0.78±0.02 vs. 0.62±0.05, respectively) and counts (root mean square error = 3.37, 3.93 vs. 5.57, respectively). The importance of both temperature and stream flow for steelhead spawning suggest this species may be highly sensitive to impacts of land and water uses, and to projected climate impacts in the region and that landscape context, complementation, and connectivity will drive how this species responds to future environments.

Climate Change and Socio-Hydrological Dynamics: Adaptations and Feedbacks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woyessa, Yali E.; Welderufael, Worku A.

2012-10-01

A functioning ecological system results in ecosystem goods and services which are of direct value to human beings. Ecosystem services are the conditions and processes which sustain and fulfil human life, and maintain biodiversity and the production of ecosystem goods. However, human actions affect ecological systems and the services they provide through various activities, such as land use, water use, pollution and climate change. Climate change is perhaps one of the most important sustainable development challenges that threatens to undo many of the development efforts being made to reach the targets set for the Millennium Development Goals. Understanding the provision of ecosystem services and how they change under different scenarios of climate and biophysical conditions could assist in bringing the issue of ecosystem services into decision making process. Similarly, the impacts of land use change on ecosystems and biodiversity have received considerable attention from ecologists and hydrologists alike. Land use change in a catchment can impact on water supply by altering hydrological processes, such as infiltration, groundwater recharge, base flow and direct runoff. In the past a variety of models were used for predicting landuse changes. Recently, the focus has shifted away from using mathematically oriented models to agent-based modeling (ABM) approach to simulate land use scenarios. The agent-based perspective, with regard to land-use cover change, is centered on the general nature and rules of land-use decision making by individuals. A conceptual framework is developed to investigate the possibility of incorporating the human dimension of land use decision and climate change model into a hydrological model in order to assess the impact of future land use scenario and climate change on the ecological system in general and water resources in particular.

Tracing the first step to speciation: ecological and genetic differentiation of a salamander population in a small forest.

PubMed

Steinfartz, Sebastian; Weitere, Markus; Tautz, Diethard

2007-11-01

Mechanisms and processes of ecologically driven adaptive speciation are best studied in natural situations where the splitting process is still occurring, i.e. before complete reproductive isolation is achieved. Here, we present a case of an early stage of adaptive differentiation under sympatric conditions in the fire salamander, Salamandra salamandra, that allows inferring the underlying processes for the split. Larvae of S. salamandra normally mature in small streams until metamorphosis, but in an old, continuous forest area near Bonn (the Kottenforst), we found salamander larvae not only in small streams but also in shallow ponds, which are ecologically very different from small streams. Common-environment experiments with larvae from both habitat types reveal specific adaptations to these different ecological conditions. Mitochondrial and microsatellite analyses show that the two ecologically differentiated groups also show signs of genetic differentiation. A parallel analysis of animals from a neighbouring much larger forest area (the Eifel), in which larvae mature only in streams, shows no signs of genetic differentiation, indicating that gene flow between ecologically similar types can occur over large distances. Hence, geographical factors cannot explain the differential larval habitat adaptations in the Kottenforst, in particular since adult life and mating of S. salamandra is strictly terrestrial and not associated with larval habitats. We propose therefore that the evolution of these adaptations was coupled with the evolution of cues for assortative mating which would be in line with models of sympatric speciation that suggest a co-evolution of habitat adaptations and associated mating signals.

Structural Equation Modeling: Applications in ecological and evolutionary biology research

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pugesek, Bruce H.; von Eye, Alexander; Tomer, Adrian

2003-01-01

This book presents an introduction to the methodology of structural equation modeling, illustrates its use, and goes on to argue that it has revolutionary implications for the study of natural systems. A major theme of this book is that we have, up to this point, attempted to study systems primarily using methods (such as the univariate model) that were designed only for considering individual processes. Understanding systems requires the capacity to examine simultaneous influences and responses. Structural equation modeling (SEM) has such capabilities. It also possesses many other traits that add strength to its utility as a means of making scientific progress. In light of the capabilities of SEM, it can be argued that much of ecological theory is currently locked in an immature state that impairs its relevance. It is further argued that the principles of SEM are capable of leading to the development and evaluation of multivariate theories of the sort vitally needed for the conservation of natural systems. Supplementary information can be found at the authors website, http://www.jamesbgrace.com/. • Details why multivariate analyses should be used to study ecological systems • Exposes unappreciated weakness in many current popular analyses • Emphasizes the future methodological developments needed to advance our understanding of ecological systems.

Characteristics of the Cross-Sectional Vorticity of the Natural Spawning Grounds of Schizothorax prenanti and a Vague-Set Similarity Model for Ecological Restoration

PubMed Central

Liu, Ming-Yang; Zhang, Ling-Lei; Li, Jia; Li, Yong; Li, Nan; Chen, Ming-Qian

2015-01-01

Schizothorax prenanti is an endemic fish in the mountain rivers of southwestern China with unique protection value. To further explore the vortex motion of hydraulic habitats, which is closely related to the fish breeding process, the cross-sectional vorticity was used to evaluate the hydraulic conditions of the natural spawning habitat of S. prenanti. A coupled level-set and volume-of-fluid (CLSVOF) three-dimensional (3D) model was applied to simulate the hydraulic habitat of the Weimen reach, a typical natural spawning ground for S. prenanti in the upper Yangtze River. The model was used in conjunction with the Wilcoxon rank sum test to distinguish the distributions of vertical vorticity in spawning and non-spawning reaches. Statistical analysis revealed that the cross-sectional vorticity in spawning reaches was significantly greater than in non-spawning reaches, with likely biological significance in the spawning process. The range of cross-sectional mean values of vorticity was 0.17 s-1–0.35 s-1 in areas with concentrated fish sperm and eggs; the minimum value was 0.17 s-1, and the majority of values were greater than 0.26 s-1. Based on this study, a vague-set similarity model was used to assess the effectiveness of ecological restoration by evaluating the similarity of the cross-sectional vorticity of the natural spawning reach and rehabilitated spawning reach after implementing ecological restoration measures. The outcome might provide a theoretical basis for the recovery of damaged S. prenanti spawning grounds and act as an important complement for the assessment of recovery effectiveness and as a useful reference for the coordination of ecological water use with the demands of hydraulic and hydropower engineering. PMID:26317847

Advancing research on animal-transported subsidies by integrating animal movement and ecosystem modelling.

PubMed

Earl, Julia E; Zollner, Patrick A

2017-09-01

Connections between ecosystems via animals (active subsidies) support ecosystem services and contribute to numerous ecological effects. Thus, the ability to predict the spatial distribution of active subsidies would be useful for ecology and conservation. Previous work modelling active subsidies focused on implicit space or static distributions, which treat passive and active subsidies similarly. Active subsidies are fundamentally different from passive subsidies, because animals can respond to the process of subsidy deposition and ecosystem changes caused by subsidy deposition. We propose addressing this disparity by integrating animal movement and ecosystem ecology to advance active subsidy investigations, make more accurate predictions of subsidy spatial distributions, and enable a mechanistic understanding of subsidy spatial distributions. We review selected quantitative techniques that could be used to accomplish integration and lead to novel insights. The ultimate objective for these types of studies is predictions of subsidy spatial distributions from characteristics of the subsidy and the movement strategy employed by animals that transport subsidies. These advances will be critical in informing the management of ecosystem services, species conservation and ecosystem degradation related to active subsidies. © 2017 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2017 British Ecological Society.

Nonlinear fluctuations-induced rate equations for linear birth-death processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Honkonen, J.

2008-05-01

The Fock-space approach to the solution of master equations for one-step Markov processes is reconsidered. It is shown that in birth-death processes with an absorbing state at the bottom of the occupation-number spectrum and occupation-number independent annihilation probability of occupation-number fluctuations give rise to rate equations drastically different from the polynomial form typical of birth-death processes. The fluctuation-induced rate equations with the characteristic exponential terms are derived for Mikhailov’s ecological model and Lanchester’s model of modern warfare.

Spatially explicit modeling in ecology: A review

USGS Publications Warehouse

DeAngelis, Donald L.; Yurek, Simeon

2017-01-01

The use of spatially explicit models (SEMs) in ecology has grown enormously in the past two decades. One major advancement has been that fine-scale details of landscapes, and of spatially dependent biological processes, such as dispersal and invasion, can now be simulated with great precision, due to improvements in computer technology. Many areas of modeling have shifted toward a focus on capturing these fine-scale details, to improve mechanistic understanding of ecosystems. However, spatially implicit models (SIMs) have played a dominant role in ecology, and arguments have been made that SIMs, which account for the effects of space without specifying spatial positions, have an advantage of being simpler and more broadly applicable, perhaps contributing more to understanding. We address this debate by comparing SEMs and SIMs in examples from the past few decades of modeling research. We argue that, although SIMs have been the dominant approach in the incorporation of space in theoretical ecology, SEMs have unique advantages for addressing pragmatic questions concerning species populations or communities in specific places, because local conditions, such as spatial heterogeneities, organism behaviors, and other contingencies, produce dynamics and patterns that usually cannot be incorporated into simpler SIMs. SEMs are also able to describe mechanisms at the local scale that can create amplifying positive feedbacks at that scale, creating emergent patterns at larger scales, and therefore are important to basic ecological theory. We review the use of SEMs at the level of populations, interacting populations, food webs, and ecosystems and argue that SEMs are not only essential in pragmatic issues, but must play a role in the understanding of causal relationships on landscapes.

Plant interactions alter the predictions of metabolic scaling theory.

PubMed

Lin, Yue; Berger, Uta; Grimm, Volker; Huth, Franka; Weiner, Jacob

2013-01-01

Metabolic scaling theory (MST) is an attempt to link physiological processes of individual organisms with macroecology. It predicts a power law relationship with an exponent of -4/3 between mean individual biomass and density during density-dependent mortality (self-thinning). Empirical tests have produced variable results, and the validity of MST is intensely debated. MST focuses on organisms' internal physiological mechanisms but we hypothesize that ecological interactions can be more important in determining plant mass-density relationships induced by density. We employ an individual-based model of plant stand development that includes three elements: a model of individual plant growth based on MST, different modes of local competition (size-symmetric vs. -asymmetric), and different resource levels. Our model is consistent with the observed variation in the slopes of self-thinning trajectories. Slopes were significantly shallower than -4/3 if competition was size-symmetric. We conclude that when the size of survivors is influenced by strong ecological interactions, these can override predictions of MST, whereas when surviving plants are less affected by interactions, individual-level metabolic processes can scale up to the population level. MST, like thermodynamics or biomechanics, sets limits within which organisms can live and function, but there may be stronger limits determined by ecological interactions. In such cases MST will not be predictive.

Rivers are social–ecological systems: Time to integrate human dimensions into riverscape ecology and management

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dunham, Jason B.; Angermeier, Paul L.; Crausbay, Shelley D.; Cravens, Amanda; Gosnell, Hannah; McEvoy, Jamie; Moritz, Max A.; Raheem, Nejem; Sanford, Todd

2018-01-01

Incorporation of concepts from landscape ecology into understanding and managing riverine ecosystems has become widely known as riverscape ecology. Riverscape ecology emphasizes interactions among processes at different scales and their consequences for valued ecosystem components, such as riverine fishes. Past studies have focused strongly on understanding the ecological processes in riverscapes and how human actions modify those processes. It is increasingly clear, however, that an understanding of the drivers behind actions that lead to human modification also merit consideration, especially regarding how those drivers influence management efficacy. These indirect drivers of riverscape outcomes can be understood in the context of a diverse array of social processes, which we collectively refer to as human dimensions. Like ecological phenomena, social processes also exhibit complex interactions across spatiotemporal scales. Greater emphasis on feedbacks between social and ecological processes will lead scientists and managers to more completely understand riverscapes as complex, dynamic, interacting social–ecological systems. Emerging applications in riverscapes, as well as studies of other ecosystems, provide examples that can lead to stronger integration of social and ecological science. We argue that conservation successes within riverscapes may not come from better ecological science, improved ecosystem service analyses, or even economic incentives if the fundamental drivers of human behaviors are not understood and addressed in conservation planning and implementation.

Semiparametric bivariate zero-inflated Poisson models with application to studies of abundance for multiple species

USGS Publications Warehouse

Arab, Ali; Holan, Scott H.; Wikle, Christopher K.; Wildhaber, Mark L.

2012-01-01

Ecological studies involving counts of abundance, presence–absence or occupancy rates often produce data having a substantial proportion of zeros. Furthermore, these types of processes are typically multivariate and only adequately described by complex nonlinear relationships involving externally measured covariates. Ignoring these aspects of the data and implementing standard approaches can lead to models that fail to provide adequate scientific understanding of the underlying ecological processes, possibly resulting in a loss of inferential power. One method of dealing with data having excess zeros is to consider the class of univariate zero-inflated generalized linear models. However, this class of models fails to address the multivariate and nonlinear aspects associated with the data usually encountered in practice. Therefore, we propose a semiparametric bivariate zero-inflated Poisson model that takes into account both of these data attributes. The general modeling framework is hierarchical Bayes and is suitable for a broad range of applications. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our model through a motivating example on modeling catch per unit area for multiple species using data from the Missouri River Benthic Fishes Study, implemented by the United States Geological Survey.

Historical foundations and future directions in macrosystems ecology.

PubMed

Rose, Kevin C; Graves, Rose A; Hansen, Winslow D; Harvey, Brian J; Qiu, Jiangxiao; Wood, Stephen A; Ziter, Carly; Turner, Monica G

2017-02-01

Macrosystems ecology is an effort to understand ecological processes and interactions at the broadest spatial scales and has potential to help solve globally important social and ecological challenges. It is important to understand the intellectual legacies underpinning macrosystems ecology: How the subdiscipline fits within, builds upon, differs from and extends previous theories. We trace the rise of macrosystems ecology with respect to preceding theories and present a new hypothesis that integrates the multiple components of macrosystems theory. The spatio-temporal anthropogenic rescaling (STAR) hypothesis suggests that human activities are altering the scales of ecological processes, resulting in interactions at novel space-time scale combinations that are diverse and predictable. We articulate four predictions about how human actions are "expanding", "shrinking", "speeding up" and "slowing down" ecological processes and interactions, and thereby generating new scaling relationships for ecological patterns and processes. We provide examples of these rescaling processes and describe ecological consequences across terrestrial, freshwater and marine ecosystems. Rescaling depends in part on characteristics including connectivity, stability and heterogeneity. Our STAR hypothesis challenges traditional assumptions about how the spatial and temporal scales of processes and interactions operate in different types of ecosystems and provides a lens through which to understand macrosystem-scale environmental change. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Forest ecosystems in the Alaskan taiga

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Van Cleve, K.; Chapin, F.S. III; Flanagan, P.W.

1986-01-01

This volume in the series ''Ecological Studies'' provides an overview and synthesis of research on the structure and function of taiga forest ecosystems of interior Alaska. The first section discusses the nature of the taiga environment and covers climate, forest ecosystem distribution, natural regeneration of vegetation, and the role of fire. The second edition focuses on environmental controls over organism activity with discussions on growth and nutrient use, nitrogen fixation, physiological ecology of mosses, and microbial activity and element availability. The final section considers environmental controls over ecosystem processes with discussions of processes, plant-animal interactions, and a model of forestmore » growth and yield.« less

Sustainable use of renewable resources in a stylized social-ecological network model under heterogeneous resource distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barfuss, Wolfram; Donges, Jonathan F.; Wiedermann, Marc; Lucht, Wolfgang

2017-04-01

Human societies depend on the resources ecosystems provide. Particularly since the last century, human activities have transformed the relationship between nature and society at a global scale. We study this coevolutionary relationship by utilizing a stylized model of private resource use and social learning on an adaptive network. The latter process is based on two social key dynamics beyond economic paradigms: boundedly rational imitation of resource use strategies and homophily in the formation of social network ties. The private and logistically growing resources are harvested with either a sustainable (small) or non-sustainable (large) effort. We show that these social processes can have a profound influence on the environmental state, such as determining whether the private renewable resources collapse from overuse or not. Additionally, we demonstrate that heterogeneously distributed regional resource capacities shift the critical social parameters where this resource extraction system collapses. We make these points to argue that, in more advanced coevolutionary models of the planetary social-ecological system, such socio-cultural phenomena as well as regional resource heterogeneities should receive attention in addition to the processes represented in established Earth system and integrated assessment models.

Using energy budgets to combine ecology and toxicology in a mammalian sentinel species

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Desforges, Jean-Pierre W.; Sonne, Christian; Dietz, Rune

2017-04-01

Process-driven modelling approaches can resolve many of the shortcomings of traditional descriptive and non-mechanistic toxicology. We developed a simple dynamic energy budget (DEB) model for the mink (Mustela vison), a sentinel species in mammalian toxicology, which coupled animal physiology, ecology and toxicology, in order to mechanistically investigate the accumulation and adverse effects of lifelong dietary exposure to persistent environmental toxicants, most notably polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs). Our novel mammalian DEB model accurately predicted, based on energy allocations to the interconnected metabolic processes of growth, development, maintenance and reproduction, lifelong patterns in mink growth, reproductive performance and dietary accumulation of PCBs as reported in the literature. Our model results were consistent with empirical data from captive and free-ranging studies in mink and other wildlife and suggest that PCB exposure can have significant population-level impacts resulting from targeted effects on fetal toxicity, kit mortality and growth and development. Our approach provides a simple and cross-species framework to explore the mechanistic interactions of physiological processes and ecotoxicology, thus allowing for a deeper understanding and interpretation of stressor-induced adverse effects at all levels of biological organization.

Cancer: a missing link in ecosystem functioning?

PubMed

Vittecoq, Marion; Roche, Benjamin; Daoust, Simon P; Ducasse, Hugo; Missé, Dorothée; Abadie, Jérome; Labrut, Sophie; Renaud, François; Gauthier-Clerc, Michel; Thomas, Frédéric

2013-11-01

Cancer is a disease that affects the majority of metazoan species and, before directly causing host death, is likely to influence the competitive abilities of individuals, their susceptibility to pathogens, their vulnerability to predators, and their ability to disperse. Despite the potential importance of these ecological impacts, cancer is rarely incorporated into model ecosystems. We describe here the diversity of ways in which oncogenic phenomena, from precancerous lesions to generalized metastatic cancers, may affect ecological processes that govern biotic interactions. We argue that oncogenic phenomena, despite their complexity, can have significant and sometimes predictable ecological consequences. Our aim is to provide a new perspective on the ecological and evolutionary significance of cancer in wildlife, and to stimulate research on this topic. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Next steps in the development of ecological soil clean-up values for metals.

PubMed

Wentsel, Randall; Fairbrother, Anne

2014-07-01

This special series in Integrated Environmental Assessment Management presents the results from 6 workgroups that were formed at the workshop on Ecological Soil Levels-Next Steps in the Development of Metal Clean-Up Values (17-21 September 2012, Sundance, Utah). This introductory article presents an overview of the issues assessors face when conducting risk assessments for metals in soils, key US Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) documents on metals risk assessment, and discusses the importance of leveraging from recent major terrestrial research projects, primarily to address Registration, Evaluation, Authorization and Restriction of Chemical Substances (REACH) requirements in Europe, that have significantly advanced our understanding of the behavior and toxicity of metals in soils. These projects developed large data sets that are useful for the risk assessment of metals in soil environments. The workshop attendees met to work toward developing a process for establishing ecological soil clean-up values (Eco-SCVs). The goal of the workshop was to progress from ecological soil screening values (Eco-SSLs) to final clean-up values by providing regulators with the methods and processes to incorporate bioavailability, normalize toxicity thresholds, address food-web issues, and incorporate background concentrations. The REACH data sets were used by workshop participants as case studies in the development of the ecological standards for soils. The workshop attendees discussed scientific advancements in bioavailability, soil biota and wildlife case studies, soil processes, and food-chain modeling. In addition, one of the workgroups discussed the processes needed to frame the topics to gain regulatory acceptance as a directive or guidance by Canada, the USEPA, or the United States. © 2013 SETAC.

Ecological Vulnerability Assessment Based on Fuzzy Analytical Method and Analytic Hierarchy Process in Yellow River Delta.

PubMed

Wu, Chunsheng; Liu, Gaohuan; Huang, Chong; Liu, Qingsheng; Guan, Xudong

2018-04-25

The Yellow River Delta (YRD), located in Yellow River estuary, is characterized by rich ecological system types, and provides habitats or migration stations for wild birds, all of which makes the delta an ecological barrier or ecotone for inland areas. Nevertheless, the abundant natural resources of YRD have brought huge challenges to the area, and frequent human activities and natural disasters have damaged the ecological systems seriously, and certain ecological functions have been threatened. Therefore, it is necessary to determine the status of the ecological environment based on scientific methods, which can provide scientifically robust data for the managers or stakeholders to adopt timely ecological protection measures. The aim of this study was to obtain the spatial distribution of the ecological vulnerability (EV) in YRD based on 21 indicators selected from underwater status, soil condition, land use, landform, vegetation cover, meteorological conditions, ocean influence, and social economy. In addition, the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP) method was used to obtain the weights of the selected indicators, and a fuzzy logic model was constructed to obtain the result. The result showed that the spatial distribution of the EV grades was regular, while the fuzzy membership of EV decreased gradually from the coastline to inland area, especially around the river crossing, where it had the lowest EV. Along the coastline, the dikes had an obviously protective effect for the inner area, while the EV was higher in the area where no dikes were built. This result also showed that the soil condition and groundwater status were highly related to the EV spatially, with the correlation coefficients −0.55 and −0.74 respectively, and human activities had exerted considerable pressure on the ecological environment.

Groundwater–surface water mixing shifts ecological assembly processes and stimulates organic carbon turnover

PubMed Central

Stegen, James C.; Fredrickson, James K.; Wilkins, Michael J.; Konopka, Allan E.; Nelson, William C.; Arntzen, Evan V.; Chrisler, William B.; Chu, Rosalie K.; Danczak, Robert E.; Fansler, Sarah J.; Kennedy, David W.; Resch, Charles T.; Tfaily, Malak

2016-01-01

Environmental transitions often result in resource mixtures that overcome limitations to microbial metabolism, resulting in biogeochemical hotspots and moments. Riverine systems, where groundwater mixes with surface water (the hyporheic zone), are spatially complex and temporally dynamic, making development of predictive models challenging. Spatial and temporal variations in hyporheic zone microbial communities are a key, but understudied, component of riverine biogeochemical function. Here, to investigate the coupling among groundwater–surface water mixing, microbial communities and biogeochemistry, we apply ecological theory, aqueous biogeochemistry, DNA sequencing and ultra-high-resolution organic carbon profiling to field samples collected across times and locations representing a broad range of mixing conditions. Our results indicate that groundwater–surface water mixing in the hyporheic zone stimulates heterotrophic respiration, alters organic carbon composition, causes ecological processes to shift from stochastic to deterministic and is associated with elevated abundances of microbial taxa that may degrade a broad suite of organic compounds. PMID:27052662

Groundwater-surface water mixing shifts ecological assembly processes and stimulates organic carbon turnover.

PubMed

Stegen, James C; Fredrickson, James K; Wilkins, Michael J; Konopka, Allan E; Nelson, William C; Arntzen, Evan V; Chrisler, William B; Chu, Rosalie K; Danczak, Robert E; Fansler, Sarah J; Kennedy, David W; Resch, Charles T; Tfaily, Malak

2016-04-07

Environmental transitions often result in resource mixtures that overcome limitations to microbial metabolism, resulting in biogeochemical hotspots and moments. Riverine systems, where groundwater mixes with surface water (the hyporheic zone), are spatially complex and temporally dynamic, making development of predictive models challenging. Spatial and temporal variations in hyporheic zone microbial communities are a key, but understudied, component of riverine biogeochemical function. Here, to investigate the coupling among groundwater-surface water mixing, microbial communities and biogeochemistry, we apply ecological theory, aqueous biogeochemistry, DNA sequencing and ultra-high-resolution organic carbon profiling to field samples collected across times and locations representing a broad range of mixing conditions. Our results indicate that groundwater-surface water mixing in the hyporheic zone stimulates heterotrophic respiration, alters organic carbon composition, causes ecological processes to shift from stochastic to deterministic and is associated with elevated abundances of microbial taxa that may degrade a broad suite of organic compounds.

Modeling small-scale and large-scale flood wave processes as indicators of channel-floodplain connectivity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Byrne, C. F.; Stone, M. C.

2016-12-01

Anthropogenic alterations to rivers and floodplains, either in the context of river engineering or river restoration efforts, have no doubt impacted channel-floodplain connectivity in the majority of developed river systems. River management strategies now often strive to retain or improve ecological integrity of floodplains. Therefore, there is a need to quantify the hydrodynamic processes that have implications for river geomorphology and ecology within the channel-floodplain interface. Because field quantification of these processes is extremely difficult, new methods in hydrodynamic modeling can help to inform river science. This research focused on the assessment of channel-floodplain flow dynamics using two-dimensional hydrodynamic modeling and presents various methods of hydrodynamic process quantification in unsteady flow scenarios. The objectives of this research were to: (1) quantify the small-scale processes of mass and momentum transfer from the main channel to the floodplain; and (2) assess how these processes accrue to meaningful levels to affect the large-scale process of flood wave attenuation. This was achieved by modeling the heavily manipulated Albuquerque Reach of the Rio Grande in New Mexico. Results are presented as mass and momentum fluxes along the channel-floodplain boundaries with a focus on the application of these methods to unsteady flood wave modeling. In addition, quantification of downstream flood wave attenuation is presented as attenuation ratios of discharge and stage, as well as wave celerity. Mass and momentum fluxes during flood waves are shown to be highly variable over spatial and temporal scales and demonstrate the implications of lateral surface connectivity. Results from this research and further application of the methods presented here can help river scientists better understand the dynamics of flood processes especially in the context of process-based river restoration.

Removing the Blinders: Toward an Integrative Model of Organizational Change in Sport and Physical Activity.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cunningham, George B.

2002-01-01

Discusses the nature of the change process in physical education and sports, presenting a model to incorporate in studies of radical organizational change. The integration of four theories (institutionalism, population ecology, strategic choice, and resource dependence) provides the basis for the model. The paper offers a hypothetical example and…

APPLICATION OF AQUATOX, A PROCESS-BASED MODEL FOR ECOLOGICAL ASSESSMENT, TO CONTENTNEA CREEK IN NORTH CAROLINA

EPA Science Inventory

The aquatic ecosystem simulation model AQUATOX was parameterized and applied to Contentnea Creek in the coastal plain of North Carolina to determine the response of fish to moderate levels of physical and chemical habitat alterations. Biomass of four fish groups was most sensiti...

Modeling Benthic Sediment Processes to Predict Water Quality and Ecology in Narragansett Bay

EPA Science Inventory

The benthic sediment acts as a huge reservoir of particulate and dissolved material (within interstitial water) which can contribute to loading of contaminants and nutrients to the water column. A benthic sediment model is presented in this report to predict spatial and temporal ...

Modelling the temporal and spatial distribution of ecological variables in Beibu Gulf

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pan, H.; Huang, L.; Yang, S.; Shi, D.; Pan, W.

2017-12-01

Beibu Gulf is an important semi-enclosed gulf located in northern South China Sea. It is rich in natural resources and its coastal rim is undergoing a rapid economic growth in recent years. Study on the spatial and temporal distribution of ecological variables by the influence of physical and biological processes in Beibu Gulf can provide the theoretical basis for the utilization of resources and environmental protection. Based on the MEC three-dimensional hydrodynamic model, a nutrient-phytoplankton-zooplankton-detritus (NPZD) model was applied to simulate the distribution of ecological variables in Beibu Gulf. The result shows that the ecosystem in Beibu Gulf is significantly influenced by dynamic conditions. In autumn and winter, great amount of nutrient-rich water from western Guangdong coastal area passes through Qiongzhou Strait and flows into Beibu Gulf, with about 108.3×103 t of inorganic nitrogen and 3.7×103 t of phosphate annually, leading to phytoplankton bloom. In summer, most of the nutrients come from rivers so high concentrations of nutrients and chlorophyll-a appear on estuaries. The annual net nutrient inputs from South China Sea into Beibu Gulf are 66.6×103 t for inorganic nitrogen and 4.6×103 t for phosphate. Phytoplankton plays an important role in nutrients' refreshment: a) Absorption by the process of photosynthesis is the biggest nutrient sink. b) Cellular release from dead phytoplankton is the biggest source in inorganic budget, making up for 33.4% of nitrogen consumed by photosynthesis while the process of respiration is the biggest source in phosphate budget, making up for 32.4% of phosphorus consumed by photosynthesis. c) Mineralization from detritus is also a considerable supplement of inorganic nutrients. Overall, biological process has more influence than physical process on the nutrient cycle budget in Beibu Gulf. The comparison of the result with remote sensing and in-situ data indicates that the model is able to simulate the biogeochemical characteristics in Beibu Gulf.

Rejoinder: Sifting through model space

USGS Publications Warehouse

Heisey, Dennis M.; Osnas, Erik E.; Cross, Paul C.; Joly, Damien O.; Langenberg, Julia A.; Miller, Michael W.

2010-01-01

Observational data sets generated by complex processes are common in ecology. Traditionally these have been very challenging to analyze because of the limitations of available statistical tools. This seems to be changing, and these are exciting times to be involved with ecological statistics, not just because of the neo-Bayesian revival but also because of the proliferation of computationally intensive methods in general. It is now possible to fit much richer models to observational data than in the relatively recent past, which in turn has stimulated much interest in how to evaluate and compare such models. In such an immature, vibrant, and rapidly growing field, not everyone is going to agree on the best way to do things. This is reflected in the contrast of opinions offered by the discussants. Each offers a thoughtful and thought-provoking critique of our work that reflects the current thinking in a non-negligible segment of the ecological data analysis community. We want to thank them for their insights.

Establishing the boundaries and building bridges: a literature review on ecological theory: implications for research into the refugee parenting experience.

PubMed

Williams, Nombasa

2010-03-01

Currently an ecological model for conceptualizing and capturing the refugee parenting experience is lacking. After an extensive review of the literature related to the usages of Bronfenbrenner's ecological model of child development, a gap was found in knowledge and research centred on describing the environment of pre-resettlement (i.e. pre-flight, flight, migration, camp) contexts and their impact on refugee parents and carer experiences. The culture of the refugee parenting experience may be characterized by disruptions in and alterations to family structure and organization; values and norms; and gender roles. This paper begins by examining the definition and usages of existing ecological frameworks in the 20th and 21st century. Particular attention is drawn to the gaps in the existing literature and an ecological model is offered. The paper concludes with a discussion of the implications for practice. The outcomes of this paper suggest the need for practitioners, policymakers and researchers to engage and develop culturally competent, relevant and appropriate interventions (i.e. reconciling differing beliefs and behaviours concerning child-rearing practices; affirming positive parenting practices of these families during engagement protocols and processes; adopting a strengths-based orientation) in the area of child protection whilst at the same time safeguarding and promoting the welfare of children within pre- and post-resettlement contexts.

Quantitative approaches in climate change ecology

PubMed Central

Brown, Christopher J; Schoeman, David S; Sydeman, William J; Brander, Keith; Buckley, Lauren B; Burrows, Michael; Duarte, Carlos M; Moore, Pippa J; Pandolfi, John M; Poloczanska, Elvira; Venables, William; Richardson, Anthony J

2011-01-01

Contemporary impacts of anthropogenic climate change on ecosystems are increasingly being recognized. Documenting the extent of these impacts requires quantitative tools for analyses of ecological observations to distinguish climate impacts in noisy data and to understand interactions between climate variability and other drivers of change. To assist the development of reliable statistical approaches, we review the marine climate change literature and provide suggestions for quantitative approaches in climate change ecology. We compiled 267 peer-reviewed articles that examined relationships between climate change and marine ecological variables. Of the articles with time series data (n = 186), 75% used statistics to test for a dependency of ecological variables on climate variables. We identified several common weaknesses in statistical approaches, including marginalizing other important non-climate drivers of change, ignoring temporal and spatial autocorrelation, averaging across spatial patterns and not reporting key metrics. We provide a list of issues that need to be addressed to make inferences more defensible, including the consideration of (i) data limitations and the comparability of data sets; (ii) alternative mechanisms for change; (iii) appropriate response variables; (iv) a suitable model for the process under study; (v) temporal autocorrelation; (vi) spatial autocorrelation and patterns; and (vii) the reporting of rates of change. While the focus of our review was marine studies, these suggestions are equally applicable to terrestrial studies. Consideration of these suggestions will help advance global knowledge of climate impacts and understanding of the processes driving ecological change.

Predicting streamflow regime metrics for ungauged streamsin Colorado, Washington, and Oregon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sanborn, Stephen C.; Bledsoe, Brian P.

2006-06-01

Streamflow prediction in ungauged basins provides essential information for water resources planning and management and ecohydrological studies yet remains a fundamental challenge to the hydrological sciences. A methodology is presented for stratifying streamflow regimes of gauged locations, classifying the regimes of ungauged streams, and developing models for predicting a suite of ecologically pertinent streamflow metrics for these streams. Eighty-four streamflow metrics characterizing various flow regime attributes were computed along with physical and climatic drainage basin characteristics for 150 streams with little or no streamflow modification in Colorado, Washington, and Oregon. The diverse hydroclimatology of the study area necessitates flow regime stratification and geographically independent clusters were identified and used to develop separate predictive models for each flow regime type. Multiple regression models for flow magnitude, timing, and rate of change metrics were quite accurate with many adjusted R2 values exceeding 0.80, while models describing streamflow variability did not perform as well. Separate stratification schemes for high, low, and average flows did not considerably improve models for metrics describing those particular aspects of the regime over a scheme based on the entire flow regime. Models for streams identified as 'snowmelt' type were improved if sites in Colorado and the Pacific Northwest were separated to better stratify the processes driving streamflow in these regions thus revealing limitations of geographically independent streamflow clusters. This study demonstrates that a broad suite of ecologically relevant streamflow characteristics can be accurately modeled across large heterogeneous regions using this framework. Applications of the resulting models include stratifying biomonitoring sites and quantifying linkages between specific aspects of flow regimes and aquatic community structure. In particular, the results bode well for modeling ecological processes related to high-flow magnitude, timing, and rate of change such as the recruitment of fish and riparian vegetation across large regions.

Including Overweight or Obese Students in Physical Education: A Social Ecological Constraint Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Li, Weidong; Rukavina, Paul

2012-01-01

In this review, we propose a social ecological constraint model to study inclusion of overweight or obese students in physical education by integrating key concepts and assumptions from ecological constraint theory in motor development and social ecological models in health promotion and behavior. The social ecological constraint model proposes…

[Construction of individual-based ecological model for Scomber japonicas at its early growth stages in East China Sea].

PubMed

Li, Yue-Song; Chen, Xin-Jun; Yang, Hong

2012-06-01

By adopting FVCOM-simulated 3-D physical field and based on the biological processes of chub mackerel (Scomber japonicas) in its early life history from the individual-based biological model, the individual-based ecological model for S. japonicas at its early growth stages in the East China Sea was constructed through coupling the physical field in March-July with the biological model by the method of Lagrange particle tracking. The model constructed could well simulate the transport process and abundance distribution of S. japonicas eggs and larvae. The Taiwan Warm Current, Kuroshio, and Tsushima Strait Warm Current directly affected the transport process and distribution of the eggs and larvae, and indirectly affected the growth and survive of the eggs and larvae through the transport to the nursery grounds with different water temperature and foods. The spawning grounds in southern East China Sea made more contributions to the recruitment to the fishing grounds in northeast East China Sea, but less to the Yangtze estuary and Zhoushan Island. The northwestern and southwestern parts of spawning grounds had strong connectivity with the nursery grounds of Cheju and Tsushima Straits, whereas the northeastern and southeastern parts of the spawning ground had strong connectivity with the nursery grounds of Kyushu and Pacific Ocean.

Watershed characterization and analysis using the VELMA model

EPA Science Inventory

We developed a broadly applicable watershed simulator – VELMA (Visualizing Ecosystem and Land Management Assessments) – to characterize hydrological and ecological processes essential to the healthy functioning of watersheds, and to identify best management practices ...

Markov Chain Estimation of Avian Seasonal Fecundity, Presentation

EPA Science Inventory

Avian seasonal fecundity is of interest from evolutionary, ecological, and conservation perspectives. However, direct estimation of seasonal fecundity is difficult, especially with multibrooded birds, and models representing the renesting and quitting processes are usually requi...

Assessment of ecological security based on soil and water conservation: a case study from Gansu Province, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Z. J.; Tian, Q.; Song, L. L.

2016-08-01

In this study, the analytic hierarchy process (ahp), ecological security index(S) and PSR model were used to evaluate Gansu's ecological security based on the large number of survey data. The results indicated that Gansu's ecological security index increased from 0.31 in 1986 to 0.66 in 2013, which reflected ecological security was in sensitive state (0.7༞S≥⃒0.5). The main reason was that national policy on protecting the ecological environment has played a crucial role, especially the national project of returning farmland to forest and grass carried out in recent years. Moreover, the environmental issues such as the higher PM2.5, sand storms and climate extremes, had significantly improved people's environmental awareness in the study area. The regional difference of ecological security index was significant in Gansu Provinces, and the part of Yangtze river basin was higher than the part of Yellow River basin, whiles the in-land river basin was the lowest value. In a world, Gansu's ecological security had improved in recent years, but there was strong need for paying more attention to policy for ecological environment protection and increasing the propaganda to ensure the Gansu's ecological security in the future. This study will provide a scientific basis for the sustainable development of regional social economy and ecological environment.

Emerging concepts for management of river ecosystems and challenges to applied integration of physical and biological sciences in the Pacific Northwest, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rieman, Bruce; Dunham, Jason B.; Clayton, James

2006-01-01

Integration of biological and physical concepts is necessary to understand and conserve the ecological integrity of river systems. Past attempts at integration have often focused at relatively small scales and on mechanistic models that may not capture the complexity of natural systems leaving substantial uncertainty about ecological responses to management actions. Two solutions have been proposed to guide management in the face of that uncertainty: the use of “natural variability” in key environmental patterns, processes, or disturbance as a reference; and the retention of some areas as essentially unmanaged reserves to conserve and represent as much biological diversity as possible. Both concepts are scale dependent because dominant processes or patterns that might be referenced will change with scale. Context and linkages across scales may be as important in structuring biological systems as conditions within habitats used by individual organisms. Both ideas view the physical environment as a template for expression, maintenance, and evolution of ecological diversity. To conserve or restore a diverse physical template it will be important to recognize the ecologically important differences in physical characteristics and processes among streams or watersheds that we might attempt to mimic in management or represent in conservation or restoration reserves.

Scale dependent inference in landscape genetics

Treesearch

Samuel A. Cushman; Erin L. Landguth

2010-01-01

Ecological relationships between patterns and processes are highly scale dependent. This paper reports the first formal exploration of how changing scale of research away from the scale of the processes governing gene flow affects the results of landscape genetic analysis. We used an individual-based, spatially explicit simulation model to generate patterns of genetic...

The Legacy of Hobbs and Gray: Research on the Development and Prevention of Conduct Problems.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dodge, Kenneth A.

1996-01-01

Describes research on the development of chronic conduct problems in childhood and adolescence, examining a multiple risk-factor model that includes biological predispositions, ecological context, family processes, peer influences, academic performance, and social information processing as factors leading to conduct problems. The paper describes a…

Which Came First, the MCnest or the MCnugget? A Survey of Markov Chain Applications in Avian Ecology, Population Biology and Chemical Risk Assessment.

EPA Science Inventory

Stochastic processes, such as survival and reproductive success, govern the trajectories of animal populations. Models of such processes have become increasingly important in understanding the effects of environmental change and anthropogenic disturbance on the ability of popula...

The Gradient Paradigm: A conceptual and analytical framework for landscape ecology [Chapter 5

Treesearch

Samuel A. Cushman; Kevin Gutzweiler; Jeffrey S. Evans; Kevin McGarigal

2010-01-01

Landscape ecology deals fundamentally with how, when, and why patterns of environmental factors influence the distribution of organisms and ecological processes, and reciprocally, how the actions of organisms and ecological processes influence ecological patterns (Urban et al. 1991; Turner 1989). The landscape ecologist's goal is to determine where and when...

Animal movement: Statistical models for telemetry data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hooten, Mevin B.; Johnson, Devin S.; McClintock, Brett T.; Morales, Juan M.

2017-01-01

The study of animal movement has always been a key element in ecological science, because it is inherently linked to critical processes that scale from individuals to populations and communities to ecosystems. Rapid improvements in biotelemetry data collection and processing technology have given rise to a variety of statistical methods for characterizing animal movement. The book serves as a comprehensive reference for the types of statistical models used to study individual-based animal movement. 

Ecological speciation in an island snail: evidence for the parallel evolution of a novel ecotype and maintenance by ecologically dependent postzygotic isolation.

PubMed

Stankowski, Sean

2013-05-01

Speciation is the process by which reproductive isolation evolves between populations. Two general models of speciation have been proposed: ecological speciation, where reproductive barriers evolve due to ecologically based divergent selection, and mutation-order speciation, where populations fix different mutations as they adapt to similar selection pressures. I evaluate these alternative models and determine the progress of speciation in a diverse group of land snails, genus Rhagada, inhabiting Rosemary Island. A recently derived keeled-flat morphotype occupies two isolated rocky hills, while globose-shelled snails inhabit the surrounding plains. The study of one hill reveals that they are separated by a narrow hybrid zone. As predicted by ecological speciation theory, there are local and landscape level associations between shell shape and habitat, and the morphological transition coincides with a narrow ecotone between the two distinct environments. Microsatellite DNA revealed a cline of hybrid index scores much wider than the morphological cline, further supporting the ecological maintenance of the morphotypes. The hybrid zone does not run through an area of low population density, as is expected for mutation-order hybrid zones, and there is a unimodal distribution of phenotypes at the centre, suggesting that there is little or no prezygotic isolation. Instead, these data suggest that the ecotypes are maintained by ecologically dependent postzygotic isolation (i.e. ecological selection against hybrids). Mitochondrial and Microsatellite DNA indicate that the keeled-flat form evolved recently, and without major historical disruptions to gene flow. The data also suggest that the two keeled-flat populations, inhabiting similar rocky hills, have evolved in parallel. These snails provide a complex example of ecological speciation in its early stages. © 2013 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Metapopulation Tracking Juvenile Penguins Reveals an Ecosystem-wide Ecological Trap.

PubMed

Sherley, Richard B; Ludynia, Katrin; Dyer, Bruce M; Lamont, Tarron; Makhado, Azwianewi B; Roux, Jean-Paul; Scales, Kylie L; Underhill, Les G; Votier, Stephen C

2017-02-20

Climate change and fisheries are transforming the oceans, but we lack a complete understanding of their ecological impact [1-3]. Environmental degradation can cause maladaptive habitat selection, inducing ecological traps with profound consequences for biodiversity [4-6]. However, whether ecological traps operate in marine systems is unclear [7]. Large marine vertebrates may be vulnerable to ecological traps [6], but their broad-scale movements and complex life histories obscure the population-level consequences of habitat selection [8, 9]. We satellite tracked postnatal dispersal in African penguins (Spheniscus demersus) from eight sites across their breeding range to test whether they have become ecologically trapped in the degraded Benguela ecosystem. Bayesian state-space and habitat models show that penguins traversed thousands of square kilometers to areas of low sea surface temperatures (14.5°C-17.5°C) and high chlorophyll-a (∼11 mg m -3 ). These were once reliable cues for prey-rich waters, but climate change and industrial fishing have depleted forage fish stocks in this system [10, 11]. Juvenile penguin survival is low in populations selecting degraded areas, and Bayesian projection models suggest that breeding numbers are ∼50% lower than if non-impacted habitats were used, revealing the extent and effect of a marine ecological trap for the first time. These cascading impacts of localized forage fish depletion-unobserved in studies on adults-were only elucidated via broad-scale movement and demographic data on juveniles. Our results support suspending fishing when prey biomass drops below critical thresholds [12, 13] and suggest that mitigation of marine ecological traps will require matching conservation action to the scale of ecological processes [14]. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Conway's “Game of Life” and the Epigenetic Principle

PubMed Central

Caballero, Lorena; Hodge, Bob; Hernandez, Sergio

2016-01-01

Cellular automatons and computer simulation games are widely used as heuristic devices in biology, to explore implications and consequences of specific theories. Conway's Game of Life has been widely used for this purpose. This game was designed to explore the evolution of ecological communities. We apply it to other biological processes, including symbiopoiesis. We show that Conway's organization of rules reflects the epigenetic principle, that genetic action and developmental processes are inseparable dimensions of a single biological system, analogous to the integration processes in symbiopoiesis. We look for similarities and differences between two epigenetic models, by Turing and Edelman, as they are realized in Game of Life objects. We show the value of computer simulations to experiment with and propose generalizations of broader scope with novel testable predictions. We use the game to explore issues in symbiopoiesis and evo-devo, where we explore a fractal hypothesis: that self-similarity exists at different levels (cells, organisms, ecological communities) as a result of homologous interactions of two as processes modeled in the Game of Life PMID:27379213

Ecology of zoonotic infectious diseases in bats: current knowledge and future directions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hayman, D.T.; Bowen, R.A.; Cryan, P.M.; McCracken, G.F.; O'Shea, T.J.; Peel, A.J.; Gilbert, A.; Webb, C.T.; Wood, J.L.

2013-01-01

Bats are hosts to a range of zoonotic and potentially zoonotic pathogens. Human activities that increase exposure to bats will likely increase the opportunity for infections to spill over in the future. Ecological drivers of pathogen spillover and emergence in novel hosts, including humans, involve a complex mixture of processes, and understanding these complexities may aid in predicting spillover. In particular, only once the pathogen and host ecologies are known can the impacts of anthropogenic changes be fully appreciated. Cross-disciplinary approaches are required to understand how host and pathogen ecology interact. Bats differ from other sylvatic disease reservoirs because of their unique and diverse lifestyles, including their ability to fly, often highly gregarious social structures, long lifespans and low fecundity rates. We highlight how these traits may affect infection dynamics and how both host and pathogen traits may interact to affect infection dynamics. We identify key questions relating to the ecology of infectious diseases in bats and propose that a combination of field and laboratory studies are needed to create data-driven mechanistic models to elucidate those aspects of bat ecology that are most critical to the dynamics of emerging bat viruses. If commonalities can be found, then predicting the dynamics of newly emerging diseases may be possible. This modelling approach will be particularly important in scenarios when population surveillance data are unavailable and when it is unclear which aspects of host ecology are driving infection dynamics.

Ecology of Zoonotic Infectious Diseases in Bats: Current Knowledge and Future Directions

PubMed Central

Hayman, D T S; Bowen, R A; Cryan, P M; McCracken, G F; O’Shea, T J; Peel, A J; Gilbert, A; Webb, C T; Wood, J L N

2013-01-01

Bats are hosts to a range of zoonotic and potentially zoonotic pathogens. Human activities that increase exposure to bats will likely increase the opportunity for infections to spill over in the future. Ecological drivers of pathogen spillover and emergence in novel hosts, including humans, involve a complex mixture of processes, and understanding these complexities may aid in predicting spillover. In particular, only once the pathogen and host ecologies are known can the impacts of anthropogenic changes be fully appreciated. Cross-disciplinary approaches are required to understand how host and pathogen ecology interact. Bats differ from other sylvatic disease reservoirs because of their unique and diverse lifestyles, including their ability to fly, often highly gregarious social structures, long lifespans and low fecundity rates. We highlight how these traits may affect infection dynamics and how both host and pathogen traits may interact to affect infection dynamics. We identify key questions relating to the ecology of infectious diseases in bats and propose that a combination of field and laboratory studies are needed to create data-driven mechanistic models to elucidate those aspects of bat ecology that are most critical to the dynamics of emerging bat viruses. If commonalities can be found, then predicting the dynamics of newly emerging diseases may be possible. This modelling approach will be particularly important in scenarios when population surveillance data are unavailable and when it is unclear which aspects of host ecology are driving infection dynamics. PMID:22958281

Assessing the Dynamic Effects of Climate on Individual Tree Growth Across Time and Space

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Itter, M.; Finley, A. O.; D'Amato, A. W.; Foster, J. R.; Bradford, J. B.

2015-12-01

The relationship between climate variability and an ecosystem process, such as forest growth, is frequently not fixed over time, but changes due to complex interactions between unobserved ecological factors and the process of interest. Climate data and forecasts are frequently spatially and temporally misaligned with ecological observations making inference regarding the effects of climate on ecosystem processes particularly challenging. Here we develop a Bayesian dynamic hierarchical model for annual tree growth increment that allows the effects of climate to evolve over time, applies climate data at a spatial-temporal scale consistent with observations, and controls for individual-level variability commonly encountered in ecological datasets. The model is applied to individual tree data from northern Minnesota using a modified Thornthwaite-type water balance model to transform PRISM temperature and precipitation estimates to physiologically relevant values of actual and potential evapotranspiration (AET, PET), and climatic water deficit. Model results indicate that mean tree growth is most sensitive to AET during the growing season and PET and minimum temperature in the spring prior to growth. The effects of these variables on tree growth, however, are not stationary with significant effects observed in only a subset of years during the 111-year study period. Importantly, significant effects of climate do not result from anomalous climate observations, but follow from large growth deviations unexplained by tree age and size, and time since forest disturbance. Results differ markedly from alternative models that assume the effects of climate are stationary over time or apply climate estimates at the individual scale. Forecasts of future tree growth as a function of climate follow directly from the dynamic hierarchical model allowing for assessment of forest change. Current work is focused on extending the model framework to include regional climate and ecosystem effects for application to a larger tree growth dataset spanning a latitudinal gradient within the US from Maine to Florida.

Ecological monitoring in a discrete-time prey-predator model.

PubMed

Gámez, M; López, I; Rodríguez, C; Varga, Z; Garay, J

2017-09-21

The paper is aimed at the methodological development of ecological monitoring in discrete-time dynamic models. In earlier papers, in the framework of continuous-time models, we have shown how a systems-theoretical methodology can be applied to the monitoring of the state process of a system of interacting populations, also estimating certain abiotic environmental changes such as pollution, climatic or seasonal changes. In practice, however, there may be good reasons to use discrete-time models. (For instance, there may be discrete cycles in the development of the populations, or observations can be made only at discrete time steps.) Therefore the present paper is devoted to the development of the monitoring methodology in the framework of discrete-time models of population ecology. By monitoring we mean that, observing only certain component(s) of the system, we reconstruct the whole state process. This may be necessary, e.g., when in a complex ecosystem the observation of the densities of certain species is impossible, or too expensive. For the first presentation of the offered methodology, we have chosen a discrete-time version of the classical Lotka-Volterra prey-predator model. This is a minimal but not trivial system where the methodology can still be presented. We also show how this methodology can be applied to estimate the effect of an abiotic environmental change, using a component of the population system as an environmental indicator. Although this approach is illustrated in a simplest possible case, it can be easily extended to larger ecosystems with several interacting populations and different types of abiotic environmental effects. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Ecological Model Web Concept: A Consultative Infrastructure for Decision Makers and Researchers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Geller, G.; Nativi, S.

2011-12-01

Rapid climate and socioeconomic changes may be outrunning society's ability to understand, predict, and respond to change effectively. Decision makers want better information about what these changes will be and how various resources will be affected, while researchers want better understanding of the components and processes of ecological systems, how they interact, and how they respond to change. Although there are many excellent models in ecology and related disciplines, there is only limited coordination among them, and accessible, openly shared models or model systems that can be consulted to gain insight on important ecological questions or assist with decision-making are rare. A "consultative infrastructure" that increased access to and sharing of models and model outputs would benefit decision makers, researchers, as well as modelers. Of course, envisioning such an ambitious system is much easier than building it, but several complementary approaches exist that could contribute. The one discussed here is called the Model Web. This is a concept for an open-ended system of interoperable computer models and databases based on making models and their outputs available as services ("model as a service"). Initially, it might consist of a core of several models from which it could grow gradually as new models or databases were added. However, a model web would not be a monolithic, rigidly planned and built system--instead, like the World Wide Web, it would grow largely organically, with limited central control, within a framework of broad goals and data exchange standards. One difference from the WWW is that a model web is much harder to create, and has more pitfalls, and thus is a long term vision. However, technology, science, observations, and models have advanced enough so that parts of an ecological model web can be built and utilized now, forming a framework for gradual growth as well as a broadly accessible infrastructure. Ultimately, the value of a model web lies in the increase in access to and sharing of both models and model outputs. By lowering access barriers to models and their outputs there is less reinvention, more efficient use of resources, greater interaction among researchers and across disciplines, as well as other benefits. The growth of such a system of models fits well with the concept and architecture of the Global Earth Observing System of Systems (GEOSS) as well as the Semantic Web. And, while framed here in the context of ecological forecasting, the same concept can be applied to any discipline utilizing models.

Uncovering the drivers of host-associated microbiota with joint species distribution modelling.

PubMed

Björk, Johannes R; Hui, Francis K C; O'Hara, Robert B; Montoya, Jose M

2018-06-01

In addition to the processes structuring free-living communities, host-associated microbiota are directly or indirectly shaped by the host. Therefore, microbiota data have a hierarchical structure where samples are nested under one or several variables representing host-specific factors, often spanning multiple levels of biological organization. Current statistical methods do not accommodate this hierarchical data structure and therefore cannot explicitly account for the effect of the host in structuring the microbiota. We introduce a novel extension of joint species distribution models (JSDMs) which can straightforwardly accommodate and discern between effects such as host phylogeny and traits, recorded covariates such as diet and collection site, among other ecological processes. Our proposed methodology includes powerful yet familiar outputs seen in community ecology overall, including (a) model-based ordination to visualize and quantify the main patterns in the data; (b) variance partitioning to assess how influential the included host-specific factors are in structuring the microbiota; and (c) co-occurrence networks to visualize microbe-to-microbe associations. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Environmental research program. 1995 Annual report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Brown, N.J.

1996-06-01

The objective of the Environmental Research Program is to enhance the understanding of, and mitigate the effects of pollutants on health, ecological systems, global and regional climate, and air quality. The program is multidisciplinary and includes fundamental research and development in efficient and environmentally benign combustion, pollutant abatement and destruction, and novel methods of detection and analysis of criteria and noncriteria pollutants. This diverse group conducts investigations in combustion, atmospheric and marine processes, flue-gas chemistry, and ecological systems. Combustion chemistry research emphasizes modeling at microscopic and macroscopic scales. At the microscopic scale, functional sensitivity analysis is used to explore themore » nature of the potential-to-dynamics relationships for reacting systems. Rate coefficients are estimated using quantum dynamics and path integral approaches. At the macroscopic level, combustion processes are modelled using chemical mechanisms at the appropriate level of detail dictated by the requirements of predicting particular aspects of combustion behavior. Parallel computing has facilitated the efforts to use detailed chemistry in models of turbulent reacting flow to predict minor species concentrations.« less

Energy conversion in isothermal nonlinear irreversible processes - struggling for higher efficiency

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ebeling, W.; Feistel, R.

2017-06-01

First we discuss some early work of Ulrike Feudel on structure formation in nonlinear reactions including ions and the efficiency of the conversion of chemical into electrical energy. Then we give some survey about isothermal energy conversion from chemical to higher forms of energy like mechanical, electrical and ecological energy. Isothermal means here that there are no temperature gradients within the model systems. We consider examples of energy conversion in several natural processes and in some devices like fuel cells. Further, as an example, we study analytically the dynamics and efficiency of a simple "active circuit" converting chemical into electrical energy and driving currents which is roughly modeling fuel cells. Finally we investigate an analogous ecological system of Lotka-Volterra type consisting of an "active species" consuming some passive "chemical food". We show analytically for both these models that the efficiency increases with the load, reaches values higher then 50 percent in a narrow regime of optimal load and goes beyond some maximal load abruptly to zero.

Using NEON Data to Test and Refine Conceptual and Numerical Models of Soil Biogeochemical and Microbial Dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weintraub, S. R.; Stanish, L.; Ayers, E.

2017-12-01

Recent conceptual and numerical models have proposed new mechanisms that underpin key biogeochemical phenomena, including soil organic matter storage and ecosystem response to nitrogen deposition. These models seek to explicitly capture the ecological links among biota, especially microbes, and their physical and chemical environment to represent belowground pools and fluxes and how they respond to perturbation. While these models put forth exciting new concepts, their broad predictive abilities are unclear as some have been developed and tested against only small or regional datasets. The National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) presents new opportunities to test and validate these models with multi-site data that span wide climatic, edaphic, and ecological gradients. NEON is measuring surface soil biogeochemical pools and fluxes along with diversity, abundance, and functional potential of soil microbiota at 47 sites distributed across the United States. This includes co-located measurements of soil carbon and nitrogen concentrations and stable isotopes, net nitrogen mineralization and nitrification rates, soil moisture, pH, microbial biomass, and community composition via 16S and ITS rRNA sequencing and shotgun metagenomic analyses. Early NEON data demonstrates that these wide edaphic and climatic gradients are related to changes in microbial community structure and functional potential, as well as element pools and process rates. Going forward, NEON's suite of standardized soil data has the potential to advance our understanding of soil communities and processes by allowing us to test the predictions of new soil biogeochemical frameworks and models. Here, we highlight several recently developed models that are ripe for this kind of data validation, and discuss key insights that may result. Further, we explore synergies with other networks, such as (i)LTER and (i)CZO, which may increase our ability to advance the frontiers of soil biogeochemical modeling.

Management of local economic and ecological system of coal processing company

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kiseleva, T. V.; Mikhailov, V. G.; Karasev, V. A.

2016-10-01

The management issues of local ecological and economic system of coal processing company - coal processing plant - are considered in the article. The objectives of the research are the identification and the analysis of local ecological and economic system (coal processing company) performance and the proposals for improving the mechanism to support the management decision aimed at improving its environmental safety. The data on the structure of run-of-mine coal processing products are shown. The analysis of main ecological and economic indicators of coal processing enterprises, characterizing the state of its environmental safety, is done. The main result of the study is the development of proposals to improve the efficiency of local enterprise ecological and economic system management, including technical, technological and business measures. The results of the study can be recommended to industrial enterprises to improve their ecological and economic efficiency.

[Progress and prospects on evaluation of ecological restoration: a review of the 5th World Conference on Ecological Restoration].

PubMed

Ding, Jing-Yi; Zhao, Wen-Wu

2014-09-01

The 5th World Conference on Ecological Restoration was held in Madison, Wisconsin, USA on October 6-11, 2013. About 1200 delegates from more than 50 countries attended the conference, and discussed the latest developments in different thematic areas of ecological restoration. Discussions on evaluation of ecological restoration were mainly from three aspects: The construction for evaluation indicator system of ecological restoration; the evaluation methods of ecological restoration; monitoring and dynamic evaluation of ecological restoration. The meeting stressed the importance of evaluation in the process of ecological restoration and concerned the challenges in evaluation of ecological restoration. The conference had the following enlightenments for China' s research on evaluation of ecological restoration: 1) Strengthening the construction of comprehensive evaluation indicators system and focusing on the multi-participation in the evaluation process. 2) Paying more attentions on scale effect and scale transformation in the evaluation process of ecological restoration. 3) Expanding the application of 3S technology in assessing the success of ecological restoration and promoting the dynamic monitoring of ecological restoration. 4) Carrying out international exchanges and cooperation actively, and promoting China's international influence in ecological restoration research.

The importance of topographically corrected null models for analyzing ecological point processes.

PubMed

McDowall, Philip; Lynch, Heather J

2017-07-01

Analyses of point process patterns and related techniques (e.g., MaxEnt) make use of the expected number of occurrences per unit area and second-order statistics based on the distance between occurrences. Ecologists working with point process data often assume that points exist on a two-dimensional x-y plane or within a three-dimensional volume, when in fact many observed point patterns are generated on a two-dimensional surface existing within three-dimensional space. For many surfaces, however, such as the topography of landscapes, the projection from the surface to the x-y plane preserves neither area nor distance. As such, when these point patterns are implicitly projected to and analyzed in the x-y plane, our expectations of the point pattern's statistical properties may not be met. When used in hypothesis testing, we find that the failure to account for the topography of the generating surface may bias statistical tests that incorrectly identify clustering and, furthermore, may bias coefficients in inhomogeneous point process models that incorporate slope as a covariate. We demonstrate the circumstances under which this bias is significant, and present simple methods that allow point processes to be simulated with corrections for topography. These point patterns can then be used to generate "topographically corrected" null models against which observed point processes can be compared. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

Political violence and child adjustment in Northern Ireland: Testing pathways in a social-ecological model including single-and two-parent families.

PubMed

Cummings, E Mark; Schermerhorn, Alice C; Merrilees, Christine E; Goeke-Morey, Marcie C; Shirlow, Peter; Cairns, Ed

2010-07-01

Moving beyond simply documenting that political violence negatively impacts children, we tested a social-ecological hypothesis for relations between political violence and child outcomes. Participants were 700 mother-child (M = 12.1 years, SD = 1.8) dyads from 18 working-class, socially deprived areas in Belfast, Northern Ireland, including single- and two-parent families. Sectarian community violence was associated with elevated family conflict and children's reduced security about multiple aspects of their social environment (i.e., family, parent-child relations, and community), with links to child adjustment problems and reductions in prosocial behavior. By comparison, and consistent with expectations, links with negative family processes, child regulatory problems, and child outcomes were less consistent for nonsectarian community violence. Support was found for a social-ecological model for relations between political violence and child outcomes among both single- and two-parent families, with evidence that emotional security and adjustment problems were more negatively affected in single-parent families. The implications for understanding social ecologies of political violence and children's functioning are discussed.

Political violence and child adjustment in Northern Ireland: Testing pathways in a social ecological model including single and two-parent families

PubMed Central

Cummings, E. Mark; Schermerhorn, Alice C.; Merrilees, Christine E.; Goeke-Morey, Marcie C.; Shirlow, Peter; Cairns, Ed

2013-01-01

Moving beyond simply documenting that political violence negatively impacts children, a social ecological hypothesis for relations between political violence and child outcomes was tested. Participants were 700 mother-child (M=12.1years, SD=1.8) dyads from 18 working class, socially deprived areas in Belfast, Northern Ireland, including single- and two-parent families. Sectarian community violence was associated with elevated family conflict and children’s reduced security about multiple aspects of their social environment (i.e., family, parent-child relations, and community), with links to child adjustment problems and reductions in prosocial behavior. By comparison, and consistent with expectations, links with negative family processes, child regulatory problems and child outcomes were less consistent for nonsectarian community violence. Support was found for a social ecological model for relations between political violence and child outcomes among both single and two parent families, with evidence that emotional security and adjustment problems were more negatively affected in single-parent families. The implications for understanding social ecologies of political violence and children’s functioning are discussed. PMID:20604605

Structured decision making as a conceptual framework to identify thresholds for conservation and management

USGS Publications Warehouse

Martin, J.; Runge, M.C.; Nichols, J.D.; Lubow, B.C.; Kendall, W.L.

2009-01-01

Thresholds and their relevance to conservation have become a major topic of discussion in the ecological literature. Unfortunately, in many cases the lack of a clear conceptual framework for thinking about thresholds may have led to confusion in attempts to apply the concept of thresholds to conservation decisions. Here, we advocate a framework for thinking about thresholds in terms of a structured decision making process. The purpose of this framework is to promote a logical and transparent process for making informed decisions for conservation. Specification of such a framework leads naturally to consideration of definitions and roles of different kinds of thresholds in the process. We distinguish among three categories of thresholds. Ecological thresholds are values of system state variables at which small changes bring about substantial changes in system dynamics. Utility thresholds are components of management objectives (determined by human values) and are values of state or performance variables at which small changes yield substantial changes in the value of the management outcome. Decision thresholds are values of system state variables at which small changes prompt changes in management actions in order to reach specified management objectives. The approach that we present focuses directly on the objectives of management, with an aim to providing decisions that are optimal with respect to those objectives. This approach clearly distinguishes the components of the decision process that are inherently subjective (management objectives, potential management actions) from those that are more objective (system models, estimates of system state). Optimization based on these components then leads to decision matrices specifying optimal actions to be taken at various values of system state variables. Values of state variables separating different actions in such matrices are viewed as decision thresholds. Utility thresholds are included in the objectives component, and ecological thresholds may be embedded in models projecting consequences of management actions. Decision thresholds are determined by the above-listed components of a structured decision process. These components may themselves vary over time, inducing variation in the decision thresholds inherited from them. These dynamic decision thresholds can then be determined using adaptive management. We provide numerical examples (that are based on patch occupancy models) of structured decision processes that include all three kinds of thresholds. ?? 2009 by the Ecological Society of America.

Ecological aspects of auditory rehabilitation.

PubMed

Borg, E

2000-03-01

Speech and language communication represents an important aspect of interaction between humans and their social environment. In this respect, communication can be analysed in analogy with ecological systems. A conceptual framework based on this analogy has been presented recently and is further developed in this paper. In particular, the consequences for design and accomplishment of auditory rehabilitation are discussed in relation to our own studies. The ecological model contains three levels of interpersonal interaction: signal, message and behaviour, as well as an interaction with the social and physical background. Sensory information is treated in afferent neural systems, processed in language centres and expressed via the vocal system. The communication situation is evaluated and compared with the internal reference "preferendum". The discrepancy between this internal template, a self-image and the perceived reality gives rise to a feedback signal that acts on the components of the communication process within the individual and in the environment, on the one hand, and on the preferendum, on the other. The role of language training, speaking behaviour, meta-communication, e.g. reporting lack of understanding or acknowledging understood messages, are made apparent through an application of the model to rehabilitation.

Using models in Integrated Ecosystem Assessment of coastal areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Solidoro, Cosimo; Bandelj, Vinko; Cossarini, Gianpiero; Melaku Canu, Donata; Libralato, Simone

2014-05-01

Numerical Models can greatly contribute to integrated ecological assessment of coastal and marine systems. Indeed, models can: i) assist in the identification of efficient sampling strategy; ii) provide space interpolation and time extrapolation of experiemtanl data which are based on the knowedge on processes dynamics and causal realtionships which is coded within the model, iii) provide estimates of hardly measurable indicators. Furthermore model can provide indication on potential effects of implementation of alternative management policies. Finally, by providing a synthetic representation of an ideal system, based on its essential dynamic, model return a picture of ideal behaviour of a system in the absence of external perturbation, alteration, noise, which might help in the identification of reference behaivuor. As an important example, model based reanalyses of biogeochemical and ecological properties are an urgent need for the estimate of the environmental status and the assessment of efficacy of conservation and environmental policies, also with reference to the enforcement of the European MSFD. However, the use of numerical models, and particularly of ecological models, in modeling and in environmental management still is far from be the rule, possibly because of a lack in realizing the benefits which a full integration of modeling and montoring systems might provide, possibly because of a lack of trust in modeling results, or because many problems still exists in the development, validation and implementation of models. For istance, assessing the validity of model results is a complex process that requires the definition of appropriate indicators, metrics, methodologies and faces with the scarcity of real-time in-situ biogeochemical data. Furthermore, biogeochemical models typically consider dozens of variables which are heavily undersampled. Here we show how the integration of mathematical model and monitoring data can support integrated ecosystem assessment of a waterbody by reviewing applications from a complex coastal ecosystem, the Lagoon of Venice, and explore potential applications to other coastal and open sea system, up to the scale of the Mediterannean Sea.

Organisms on the move: ecology and evolution of dispersal.

PubMed

Gibbs, Melanie; Saastamoinen, Marjo; Coulon, Aurélie; Stevens, Virginie M

2010-04-23

The symposium and workshop 'Organisms on the move: ecology and evolution of dispersal', held in Ghent (Belgium), 14-18 September 2009, brought together a wide range of researchers using empirical and modelling approaches to examine the dispersal process. This meeting provided an opportunity to assess how much cross-fertilization there has been between empiricists and theoreticians, to present novel insights on dispersal patterns in plants, animals and micro-organisms and to measure the progress made in examining the causes and consequences of dispersal.

International Neural Network Society Annual Meeting (1994) Held in San Diego, California on 5-9 June 1994. Volume 1

DTIC Science & Technology

1994-06-09

Ethics and the Soul 1-221 P. Werbos A Net Program for Natural Language Comprehension 1-863 J. Weiss Applications Oral ANN Design of Image Processing...Controlling Nonlinear Dynamic Systems Using Neuro-Fuzzy Networks 1-787 E. Teixera, G. Laforga, H. Azevedo Neural Fuzzy Logics as a Tool for Design Ecological ...Discrete Neural Network 11-466 Z. Cheng-fu Representation of Number A Theory of Mathematical Modeling 11-479 J. Cristofano An Ecological Approach to

Ecological opportunity and incumbency in the diversification of repeated continental colonizations by muroid rodents.

PubMed

Schenk, John J; Rowe, Kevin C; Steppan, Scott J

2013-11-01

Why some clades are more species-rich than others is a central question in macroevolution. Most hypotheses explaining exceptionally diverse clades involve the emergence of an ecological opportunity caused by a major biogeographic transition or evolution of a key innovation. The radiation of muroid rodents is an ideal model for testing theories of diversification rates in relation to biogeography and ecological opportunity because the group is exceptionally species-rich (comprising nearly one-third of all mammal species), it is ecologically diverse, and it has colonized every major landmass except New Zealand and Antarctica, thus providing multiple replicate radiations. We present an extension of the conventional ecological opportunity model to include a geographic incumbency effect, develop the largest muroid phylogeny to date, and use this phylogeny to test the new model. The nearly 300-species phylogeny based on four nuclear genes is robustly resolved throughout. Consistent with the fossil record, we identified Eurasia as the most likely origin of the group and reconstructed five to seven colonizations of Africa, five of North America, four of Southeast Asia, two of South America, two of Sahul, one of Madagascar, and eight to ten recolonizations of Eurasia. We accounted for incomplete taxon sampling by using multiple statistical methods and identified three corroborated regions of the tree with significant shifts in diversification rates. In several cases, higher rates were associated with the first colonization of a continental area, but most colonizations were not followed by bursts of speciation. We found strong evidence for diversification consistent with the ecological opportunity model (initial burst followed by density-dependent slowdown) in the first colonization of South America and partial support for this model in the first colonization of Sahul. Primary colonizers appear to inhibit the ultimate diversity of secondary colonizers, a pattern of incumbency that is consistent with ecological opportunity, but they did not inhibit initial diversification rates of secondary colonizers. These results indicate that ecological opportunity may be a general but weak process in muroids and one that requires specific circumstances to lead to an adaptive radiation. The total land area, length of time between colonizations, and rank of colonizations did not influence the diversification rates of primary colonizers. Models currently employed to test ecological opportunity do a poor job of explaining muroid diversity. In addition, the various rate-shift metrics identified different clades, suggesting that caution should be used when only one is applied, and we discuss which methods are most appropriate to address different questions of diversification.

A Conceptual Framework for Evaluating the Domains of Applicability of Ecological Models and its Implementation in the Ecological Production Function Library - International Society for Ecological Modelling Conference

EPA Science Inventory

The use of computational ecological models to inform environmental management and policy has proliferated in the past 25 years. These models have become essential tools as linkages and feedbacks between human actions and ecological responses can be complex, and as funds for sampl...

Valuing ecological systems and services

PubMed Central

Kubiszewski, Ida; Ervin, David; Bluffstone, Randy; Boyd, James; Brown, Darrell; Chang, Heejun; Dujon, Veronica; Granek, Elise; Polasky, Stephen; Shandas, Vivek; Yeakley, Alan

2011-01-01

Making trade-offs between ecological services and other contributors to human well-being is a difficult but critical process that requires valuation. This allows both better recognition of the ecological, social, and economic trade-offs and also allows us to bill those who use up or destroy ecological services and reward those that produce or enhance them. It also aids improved ecosystems policy. In this paper we clarify some of the controversies in defining the contributions to human well-being from functioning ecosystems, many of which people are not even aware of. We go on to describe the applicability of the various valuation methods that can be used in estimating the benefits of ecosystem services. Finally, we describe some recent case studies and lay out the research agenda for ecosystem services analysis, modeling, and valuation going forward. PMID:21876725

FORUM: Effective management of ecological resilience – are we there yet?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Spears, Bryan M.; Ives, Stephen C.; Angeler, David G.; Allen, Craig R.; Birk, Sebastian; Carvalho, Laurence; Cavers, Stephen; Daunt, Francis; Morton, R. Daniel; Pocock, Michael J. O.; Rhodes, Glenn; Thackeray, Stephen J.

2015-01-01

Ecological resilience is developing into a credible paradigm for policy development and environmental management for preserving natural capital in a rapidly changing world. However, resilience emerges from complex interactions, limiting the translation of theory into practice.Main limitations include the following: (i) difficulty in quantification and detection of changes in ecological resilience, (ii) a lack of empirical evidence to support preventative or proactive management and (iii) difficulties in managing processes operating across socio-ecological systems that vary in space and time.We highlight recent research with the potential to address these limitations including new and/or improved indicators of resilience and tools to assess scale as a driver of resilience.Synthesis and applications. Effective resilience-based management must be adaptive in nature. To support this, we propose an operational model using resilience-based iterative management actions operating across scales.

Gypsophila bermejoi G. López: A possible case of speciation repressed by bioclimatic factors.

PubMed

de Luis, Miguel; Bartolomé, Carmen; García Cardo, Óscar; Álvarez-Jiménez, Julio

2018-01-01

Gypsophila bermejoi G. López is an allopolyploid species derived from the parental G. struthium L. subsp. struthium and G. tomentosa L. All these plants are gypsophytes endemic to the Iberian Peninsula of particular ecological, evolutionary and biochemical interest. In this study, we present evidence of a possible repression on the process of G. bermejoi speciation by climatic factors. We modelled the ecological niches of the three taxa considered here using a maximum entropy approach and employing a series of bioclimatic variables. Subsequently, we projected these models onto the geographical space of the Iberian Peninsula in the present age and at two past ages: the Last Glacial Maximum and the mid-Holocene period. Furthermore, we compared these niches using the statistical method devised by Warren to calculate their degree of overlap. We also evaluated the evolution of the bioclimatic habitat suitability at those sites were the soil favors the growth of these species. Both the maximum entropy model and the degree of overlap indicated that the ecological behavior of the hybrid differs notably from that of the parental species. During the Last Glacial Maximum, the two parental species appear to take refuge in the western coastal strip of the Peninsula, a region in which there are virtually no sites where G. bermejoi could potentially be found. However, in the mid-Holocene period the suitability of G. bermejoi to sites with favorable soils shifts from almost null to a strong adaptation, a clear change in this tendency. These results suggest that the ecological niches of hybrid allopolyploids can be considerably different to those of their parental species, which may have evolutionary and ecologically relevant consequences. The data obtained indicate that certain bioclimatic variables may possibly repress the processes by which new species are formed. The difference in the ecological niche of G. bermejoi with respect to its parental species prevented it from prospering during the Last Glacial Maximum. However, the climatic change in the mid-Holocene period released this block and as such, it permitted the new species to establish itself. Accordingly, we favor a recent origin of the current populations of G. bermejoi.

Gypsophila bermejoi G. López: A possible case of speciation repressed by bioclimatic factors

PubMed Central

de Luis, Miguel; García Cardo, Óscar; Álvarez-Jiménez, Julio

2018-01-01

Gypsophila bermejoi G. López is an allopolyploid species derived from the parental G. struthium L. subsp. struthium and G. tomentosa L. All these plants are gypsophytes endemic to the Iberian Peninsula of particular ecological, evolutionary and biochemical interest. In this study, we present evidence of a possible repression on the process of G. bermejoi speciation by climatic factors. We modelled the ecological niches of the three taxa considered here using a maximum entropy approach and employing a series of bioclimatic variables. Subsequently, we projected these models onto the geographical space of the Iberian Peninsula in the present age and at two past ages: the Last Glacial Maximum and the mid-Holocene period. Furthermore, we compared these niches using the statistical method devised by Warren to calculate their degree of overlap. We also evaluated the evolution of the bioclimatic habitat suitability at those sites were the soil favors the growth of these species. Both the maximum entropy model and the degree of overlap indicated that the ecological behavior of the hybrid differs notably from that of the parental species. During the Last Glacial Maximum, the two parental species appear to take refuge in the western coastal strip of the Peninsula, a region in which there are virtually no sites where G. bermejoi could potentially be found. However, in the mid-Holocene period the suitability of G. bermejoi to sites with favorable soils shifts from almost null to a strong adaptation, a clear change in this tendency. These results suggest that the ecological niches of hybrid allopolyploids can be considerably different to those of their parental species, which may have evolutionary and ecologically relevant consequences. The data obtained indicate that certain bioclimatic variables may possibly repress the processes by which new species are formed. The difference in the ecological niche of G. bermejoi with respect to its parental species prevented it from prospering during the Last Glacial Maximum. However, the climatic change in the mid-Holocene period released this block and as such, it permitted the new species to establish itself. Accordingly, we favor a recent origin of the current populations of G. bermejoi. PMID:29338010

Modelling spatiotemporal distribution patterns of earthworms in order to indicate hydrological soil processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Palm, Juliane; Klaus, Julian; van Schaik, Loes; Zehe, Erwin; Schröder, Boris

2010-05-01

Soils provide central ecosystem functions in recycling nutrients, detoxifying harmful chemicals as well as regulating microclimate and local hydrological processes. The internal regulation of these functions and therefore the development of healthy and fertile soils mainly depend on the functional diversity of plants and animals. Soil organisms drive essential processes such as litter decomposition, nutrient cycling, water dynamics, and soil structure formation. Disturbances by different soil management practices (e.g., soil tillage, fertilization, pesticide application) affect the distribution and abundance of soil organisms and hence influence regulating processes. The strong relationship between environmental conditions and soil organisms gives us the opportunity to link spatiotemporal distribution patterns of indicator species with the potential provision of essential soil processes on different scales. Earthworms are key organisms for soil function and affect, among other things, water dynamics and solute transport in soils. Through their burrowing activity, earthworms increase the number of macropores by building semi-permanent burrow systems. In the unsaturated zone, earthworm burrows act as preferential flow pathways and affect water infiltration, surface-, subsurface- and matrix flow as well as the transport of water and solutes into deeper soil layers. Thereby different ecological earthworm types have different importance. Deep burrowing anecic earthworm species (e.g., Lumbricus terrestris) affect the vertical flow and thus increase the risk of potential contamination of ground water with agrochemicals. In contrast, horizontal burrowing endogeic (e.g., Aporrectodea caliginosa) and epigeic species (e.g., Lumbricus rubellus) increase water conductivity and the diffuse distribution of water and solutes in the upper soil layers. The question which processes are more relevant is pivotal for soil management and risk assessment. Thus, finding relevant environmental predictors which explain the distribution and dynamics of different ecological earthworm types can help us to understand where or when these processes are relevant in the landscape. Therefore, we develop species distribution models which are a useful tool to predict spatiotemporal distributions of earthworm occurrence and abundance under changing environmental conditions. On field scale, geostatistical distribution maps have shown that the spatial distribution of earthworms depends on soil parameters such as food supply, soil moisture, bulk density but with different patterns for earthworm stages (adult, juvenile) and ecological types (anecic, endogeic, epigeic). On landscape scales, earthworm distribution seems to be strongly controlled by management/disturbance-related factors. Our study shows different modelling approaches for predicting distribution patterns of earthworms in the Weiherbach area, an agricultural site in Kraichtal (Baden-Württemberg, Germany). We carried out field studies on arable fields differing in soil management practices (conventional, conservational), soil properties (organic matter content, texture, soil moisture), and topography (slope, elevation) in order to identify predictors for earthworm occurrence, abundance and biomass. Our earthworm distribution models consider all ecological groups as well as different life stages, accounting for the fact that the activity of juveniles is sometimes different from those of adults. Within our BIOPORE-project it is our final goal to couple our distribution models with population dynamic models and a preferential flow model to an integrated ecohydrological model to analyse feedbacks between earthworm engineering and transport characteristics affecting the functioning of (agro-) ecosystems.

Uncertainty quantification and propagation in a complex human-environment system driven by fire and climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Terando, A. J.; Reich, B. J.; Pacifici, K.

2013-12-01

Fire is an important disturbance process in many coupled natural-human systems. Changes in the frequency and severity of fires due to anthropogenic climate change could have significant costs to society and the plant and animal communities that are adapted to a particular fire regime Planning for these changes requires a robust model of the relationship between climate and fire that accounts for multiple sources of uncertainty that are present when simulating ecological and climatological processes. Here we model how anthropogenic climate change could affect the wildfire regime for a region in the Southeast US whose natural ecosystems are dependent on frequent, low-intensity fires while humans are at risk from large catastrophic fires. We develop a modeling framework that incorporates three major sources of uncertainty: (1) uncertainty in the ecological drivers of expected monthly area burned, (2) uncertainty in the environmental drivers influencing the probability of an extreme fire event, and (3) structural uncertainty in different downscaled climate models. In addition we use two policy-relevant emission scenarios (climate stabilization and 'business-as-usual') to characterize the uncertainty in future greenhouse gas forcings. We use a Bayesian framework to incorporate different sources of uncertainty including simulation of predictive errors and Stochastic Search Variable Selection. Our results suggest that although the mean process remains stationary, the probability of extreme fires declines through time, owing to the persistence of high atmospheric moisture content during the peak fire season that dampens the effect of increasing temperatures. Including multiple sources of uncertainty leads to wide prediction intervals, but is potentially more useful for decision-makers that will require adaptation strategies that are robust to rapid but uncertain climate and ecological change.

From biofilm ecology to reactors: a focused review.

PubMed

Boltz, Joshua P; Smets, Barth F; Rittmann, Bruce E; van Loosdrecht, Mark C M; Morgenroth, Eberhard; Daigger, Glen T

2017-04-01

Biofilms are complex biostructures that appear on all surfaces that are regularly in contact with water. They are structurally complex, dynamic systems with attributes of primordial multicellular organisms and multifaceted ecosystems. The presence of biofilms may have a negative impact on the performance of various systems, but they can also be used beneficially for the treatment of water (defined herein as potable water, municipal and industrial wastewater, fresh/brackish/salt water bodies, groundwater) as well as in water stream-based biological resource recovery systems. This review addresses the following three topics: (1) biofilm ecology, (2) biofilm reactor technology and design, and (3) biofilm modeling. In so doing, it addresses the processes occurring in the biofilm, and how these affect and are affected by the broader biofilm system. The symphonic application of a suite of biological methods has led to significant advances in the understanding of biofilm ecology. New metabolic pathways, such as anaerobic ammonium oxidation (anammox) or complete ammonium oxidation (comammox) were first observed in biofilm reactors. The functions, properties, and constituents of the biofilm extracellular polymeric substance matrix are somewhat known, but their exact composition and role in the microbial conversion kinetics and biochemical transformations are still to be resolved. Biofilm grown microorganisms may contribute to increased metabolism of micro-pollutants. Several types of biofilm reactors have been used for water treatment, with current focus on moving bed biofilm reactors, integrated fixed-film activated sludge, membrane-supported biofilm reactors, and granular sludge processes. The control and/or beneficial use of biofilms in membrane processes is advancing. Biofilm models have become essential tools for fundamental biofilm research and biofilm reactor engineering and design. At the same time, the divergence between biofilm modeling and biofilm reactor modeling approaches is recognized.

INCORPORATING INDUSTRIAL ECOLOGY INTO HIERARCHICAL CHEMICAL PROCESS DESIGN

EPA Science Inventory

Incorporating Industrial Ecology into Hierarchical Chemical Process Design: Determining Targets for the Exchange of Waste

The exchange of waste to be used as a recycled feed has long been encouraged by practitioners of industrial ecology. Industrial ecology is a field t...

Application of a water/ecosystem model, VELMA, to inform environmental management decision-making in the watersheds of Keene and Kingsbury Creeks

EPA Science Inventory

VELMA (Visualizing Ecosystem Land Management Assessments) is an eco-hydrological model that produces visual simulations of many hydrologic and ecological processes over time periods from hours to days to years. The purpose thus far has been used for predicting effectiveness of g...

Contextualizing Community Violence and Its Effects: An Ecological Model of Parent-Child Interdependent Coping

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Aisenberg, Eugene; Ell, Kathleen

2005-01-01

This article presents an integrated conceptual framework that contextualizes exposure to community violence and the interpersonal and interdependent processes of parent and child response to community violence. This model posits that parental distress, including post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and depression, is a significant mediator of…

Using landscape disturbance and succession models to support forest management

Treesearch

Eric J. Gustafson; Brian R. Sturtevant; Anatoly S. Shvidenko; Robert M. Scheller

2010-01-01

Managers of forested landscapes must account for multiple, interacting ecological processes operating at broad spatial and temporal scales. These interactions can be of such complexity that predictions of future forest ecosystem states are beyond the analytical capability of the human mind. Landscape disturbance and succession models (LDSM) are predictive and...

Combined measurement and modeling of the hydrological impact of hydraulic redistribution using CLM4.5 at eight AmeriFlux sites

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Effects of hydraulic redistribution (HR) on hydrological, biogeochemical, and ecological processes have been demonstrated in the field, but the current generation of standard earth system models does not include a representation of HR. Though recent studies have examined the effect of incorporating ...

Models for ecological models: Ocean primary productivity

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wikle, Christopher K.; Leeds, William B.; Hooten, Mevin B.

2016-01-01

The ocean accounts for more than 70% of planet Earth's surface, and it processes are critically important to marine and terrestrial life.  Ocean ecosystems are strongly dependent on the physical state of the ocean (e.g., transports, mixing, upwelling, runoff, and ice dynamics(.  As an example, consider the Coastal Gulf of Alaska (CGOA) region.

Ecosystem dynamics and disturbance in mountain wildernesses: assessing vulnerability of natural resources to change

Treesearch

Daniel B. Fagre; David L. Peterson

2000-01-01

An integrated program of ecosystem modeling and extensive field studies at Glacier and Olympic National Parks has quantified many of the ecological processes affected by climatic variability and disturbance. Models have successfully estimated snow distribution, annual watershed discharge, and stream temperature variation based on seven years of monitoring. Various...

Classification and regression trees

Treesearch

G. G. Moisen

2008-01-01

Frequently, ecologists are interested in exploring ecological relationships, describing patterns and processes, or making spatial or temporal predictions. These purposes often can be addressed by modeling the relationship between some outcome or response and a set of features or explanatory variables.

A process-based framework for soil ecosystem services study and management.

PubMed

Su, Changhong; Liu, Huifang; Wang, Shuai

2018-06-15

Soil provides various indispensable ecosystem services for human society. Soil's complex structure and property makes the soil ecological processes complicated and brings about tough challenges for soil ecosystem services study. Most of the current frameworks on soil services focus exclusively on services per se, neglecting the links and underlying ecological mechanisms. This article put forward a framework on soil services by stressing the underlying soil mechanisms and processes, which includes: 1) analyzing soil natural capital stock based on soil structure and property, 2) disentangling the underlying complex links and soil processes, 3) soil services valuation based on field investigation and spatial explicit models, and 4) enacting soil management strategy based on soil services and their driving factors. By application of this framework, we assessed the soil services of sediment retention, water yield, and grain production in the Upper-reach Fenhe Watershed. Based on the ecosystem services and human driving factors, the whole watershed was clustered into five groups: 1) municipal area, 2) typical coal mining area, 3) traditional farming area, 4) unsustainable urbanizing area, and 5) ecological conservation area. Management strategies on soils were made according to the clustering based soil services and human activities. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Processes entangling interactions in communities: forbidden links are more important than abundance in a hummingbird-plant network.

PubMed

Vizentin-Bugoni, Jeferson; Maruyama, Pietro Kiyoshi; Sazima, Marlies

2014-04-07

Understanding the relative importance of multiple processes on structuring species interactions within communities is one of the major challenges in ecology. Here, we evaluated the relative importance of species abundance and forbidden links in structuring a hummingbird-plant interaction network from the Atlantic rainforest in Brazil. Our results show that models incorporating phenological overlapping and morphological matches were more accurate in predicting the observed interactions than models considering species abundance. This means that forbidden links, by imposing constraints on species interactions, play a greater role than species abundance in structuring the ecological network. We also show that using the frequency of interaction as a proxy for species abundance and network metrics to describe the detailed network structure might lead to biased conclusions regarding mechanisms generating network structure. Together, our findings suggest that species abundance can be a less important driver of species interactions in communities than previously thought.

Hydration status and diurnal trophic interactions shape microbial community function in desert biocrusts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Minsu; Or, Dani

2017-12-01

Biological soil crusts (biocrusts) are self-organised thin assemblies of microbes, lichens, and mosses that are ubiquitous in arid regions and serve as important ecological and biogeochemical hotspots. Biocrust ecological function is intricately shaped by strong gradients of water, light, oxygen, and dynamics in the abundance and spatial organisation of the microbial community within a few millimetres of the soil surface. We report a mechanistic model that links the biophysical and chemical processes that shape the functioning of biocrust representative microbial communities that interact trophically and respond dynamically to cycles of hydration, light, and temperature. The model captures key features of carbon and nitrogen cycling within biocrusts, such as microbial activity and distribution (during early stages of biocrust establishment) under diurnal cycles and the associated dynamics of biogeochemical fluxes at different hydration conditions. The study offers new insights into the highly dynamic and localised processes performed by microbial communities within thin desert biocrusts.

Processes entangling interactions in communities: forbidden links are more important than abundance in a hummingbird–plant network

PubMed Central

Vizentin-Bugoni, Jeferson; Maruyama, Pietro Kiyoshi; Sazima, Marlies

2014-01-01

Understanding the relative importance of multiple processes on structuring species interactions within communities is one of the major challenges in ecology. Here, we evaluated the relative importance of species abundance and forbidden links in structuring a hummingbird–plant interaction network from the Atlantic rainforest in Brazil. Our results show that models incorporating phenological overlapping and morphological matches were more accurate in predicting the observed interactions than models considering species abundance. This means that forbidden links, by imposing constraints on species interactions, play a greater role than species abundance in structuring the ecological network. We also show that using the frequency of interaction as a proxy for species abundance and network metrics to describe the detailed network structure might lead to biased conclusions regarding mechanisms generating network structure. Together, our findings suggest that species abundance can be a less important driver of species interactions in communities than previously thought. PMID:24552835

Collective movement in ecology: from emerging technologies to conservation and management.

PubMed

Westley, Peter A H; Berdahl, Andrew M; Torney, Colin J; Biro, Dora

2018-05-19

Recent advances in technology and quantitative methods have led to the emergence of a new field of study that stands to link insights of researchers from two closely related, but often disconnected disciplines: movement ecology and collective animal behaviour. To date, the field of movement ecology has focused on elucidating the internal and external drivers of animal movement and the influence of movement on broader ecological processes. Typically, tracking and/or remote sensing technology is employed to study individual animals in natural conditions. By contrast, the field of collective behaviour has quantified the significant role social interactions play in the decision-making of animals within groups and, to date, has predominantly relied on controlled laboratory-based studies and theoretical models owing to the constraints of studying interacting animals in the field. This themed issue is intended to formalize the burgeoning field of collective movement ecology which integrates research from both movement ecology and collective behaviour. In this introductory paper, we set the stage for the issue by briefly examining the approaches and current status of research in these areas. Next, we outline the structure of the theme issue and describe the obstacles collective movement researchers face, from data acquisition in the field to analysis and problems of scale, and highlight the key contributions of the assembled papers. We finish by presenting research that links individual and broad-scale ecological and evolutionary processes to collective movement, and finally relate these concepts to emerging challenges for the management and conservation of animals on the move in a world that is increasingly impacted by human activity.This article is part of the theme issue 'Collective movement ecology'. © 2018 The Author(s).

Towards a Stochastic Predictive Understanding of Ecosystem Functioning and Resilience to Environmental Changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pappas, C.

2017-12-01

Terrestrial ecosystem processes respond differently to hydrometeorological variability across timescales, and so does our scientific understanding of the underlying mechanisms. Process-based modeling of ecosystem functioning is therefore challenging, especially when long-term predictions are envisioned. Here we analyze the statistical properties of hydrometeorological and ecosystem variability, i.e., the variability of ecosystem process related to vegetation carbon dynamics, from hourly to decadal timescales. 23 extra-tropical forest sites, covering different climatic zones and vegetation characteristics, are examined. Micrometeorological and reanalysis data of precipitation, air temperature, shortwave radiation and vapor pressure deficit are used to describe hydrometeorological variability. Ecosystem variability is quantified using long-term eddy covariance flux data of hourly net ecosystem exchange of CO2 between land surface and atmosphere, monthly remote sensing vegetation indices, annual tree-ring widths and above-ground biomass increment estimates. We find that across sites and timescales ecosystem variability is confined within a hydrometeorological envelope that describes the range of variability of the available resources, i.e., water and energy. Furthermore, ecosystem variability demonstrates long-term persistence, highlighting ecological memory and slow ecosystem recovery rates after disturbances. We derive an analytical model, combining deterministic harmonics and stochastic processes, that represents major mechanisms and uncertainties and mimics the observed pattern of hydrometeorological and ecosystem variability. This stochastic framework offers a parsimonious and mathematically tractable approach for modelling ecosystem functioning and for understanding its response and resilience to environmental changes. Furthermore, this framework reflects well the observed ecological memory, an inherent property of ecosystem functioning that is currently not captured by simulation results with process-based models. Our analysis offers a perspective for terrestrial ecosystem modelling, combining current process understanding with stochastic methods, and paves the way for new model-data integration opportunities in Earth system sciences.

Advances in river ice hydrology 1999-2003

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morse, Brian; Hicks, Faye

2005-01-01

In the period 1999 to 2003, river ice has continued to have important socio-economic impacts in Canada and other Nordic countries. Concurrently, there have been many important advances in all areas of Canadian research into river ice engineering and hydrology. For example: (1) River ice processes were highlighted in two special journal issues (Canadian Journal of Civil Engineering in 2003 and Hydrological Processes in 2002) and at five conferences (Canadian Committee on River Ice Processes and the Environment in 1999, 2001 and 2003, and International Association of Hydraulic Research in 2000 and 2002). (2) A number of workers have clearly advanced our understanding of river ice processes by bringing together disparate information in comprehensive review articles. (3) There have been significant advances in river ice modelling. For example, both one-dimensional (e.g. RIVICE, RIVJAM, ICEJAM, HEC-RAS, etc.) and two-dimensional (2-D; www.river2d.ca) public-domain ice-jam models are now available. Work is ongoing to improve RIVER2D, and a commercial 2-D ice-process model is being developed. (4) The 1999-2003 period is notable for the number of distinctly hydrological and ecological studies. On the quantitative side, many are making efforts to determine streamflow during the winter period. On the ecological side, some new publications have addressed the link to water quality (temperature, dissolved oxygen, nutrients and pollutants), and others have dealt with sediment transport and geomorphology (particularly as it relates to break-up), stream ecology (plants, food cycle, etc.) and fish habitat.There is the growing recognition, that these types of study require collaborative efforts. In our view, the main areas requiring further work are: (1) to interface geomorphological and habitat models with quantitative river ice hydrodynamic models; (2) to develop a manager's toolbox (database management, remote sensing, forecasting, intervention methodologies, etc.) to enable agencies to intervene better at the time of ice-jam-induced floods; and (3) finalize ice-jam prevention methods on the St Lawrence River to safeguard its $2 billion commercial navigation industry. Copyright

Microbes as Engines of Ecosystem Function: When Does Community Structure Enhance Predictions of Ecosystem Processes?

PubMed Central

Graham, Emily B.; Knelman, Joseph E.; Schindlbacher, Andreas; Siciliano, Steven; Breulmann, Marc; Yannarell, Anthony; Beman, J. M.; Abell, Guy; Philippot, Laurent; Prosser, James; Foulquier, Arnaud; Yuste, Jorge C.; Glanville, Helen C.; Jones, Davey L.; Angel, Roey; Salminen, Janne; Newton, Ryan J.; Bürgmann, Helmut; Ingram, Lachlan J.; Hamer, Ute; Siljanen, Henri M. P.; Peltoniemi, Krista; Potthast, Karin; Bañeras, Lluís; Hartmann, Martin; Banerjee, Samiran; Yu, Ri-Qing; Nogaro, Geraldine; Richter, Andreas; Koranda, Marianne; Castle, Sarah C.; Goberna, Marta; Song, Bongkeun; Chatterjee, Amitava; Nunes, Olga C.; Lopes, Ana R.; Cao, Yiping; Kaisermann, Aurore; Hallin, Sara; Strickland, Michael S.; Garcia-Pausas, Jordi; Barba, Josep; Kang, Hojeong; Isobe, Kazuo; Papaspyrou, Sokratis; Pastorelli, Roberta; Lagomarsino, Alessandra; Lindström, Eva S.; Basiliko, Nathan; Nemergut, Diana R.

2016-01-01

Microorganisms are vital in mediating the earth’s biogeochemical cycles; yet, despite our rapidly increasing ability to explore complex environmental microbial communities, the relationship between microbial community structure and ecosystem processes remains poorly understood. Here, we address a fundamental and unanswered question in microbial ecology: ‘When do we need to understand microbial community structure to accurately predict function?’ We present a statistical analysis investigating the value of environmental data and microbial community structure independently and in combination for explaining rates of carbon and nitrogen cycling processes within 82 global datasets. Environmental variables were the strongest predictors of process rates but left 44% of variation unexplained on average, suggesting the potential for microbial data to increase model accuracy. Although only 29% of our datasets were significantly improved by adding information on microbial community structure, we observed improvement in models of processes mediated by narrow phylogenetic guilds via functional gene data, and conversely, improvement in models of facultative microbial processes via community diversity metrics. Our results also suggest that microbial diversity can strengthen predictions of respiration rates beyond microbial biomass parameters, as 53% of models were improved by incorporating both sets of predictors compared to 35% by microbial biomass alone. Our analysis represents the first comprehensive analysis of research examining links between microbial community structure and ecosystem function. Taken together, our results indicate that a greater understanding of microbial communities informed by ecological principles may enhance our ability to predict ecosystem process rates relative to assessments based on environmental variables and microbial physiology. PMID:26941732

Microbes as Engines of Ecosystem Function: When Does Community Structure Enhance Predictions of Ecosystem Processes?

PubMed

Graham, Emily B; Knelman, Joseph E; Schindlbacher, Andreas; Siciliano, Steven; Breulmann, Marc; Yannarell, Anthony; Beman, J M; Abell, Guy; Philippot, Laurent; Prosser, James; Foulquier, Arnaud; Yuste, Jorge C; Glanville, Helen C; Jones, Davey L; Angel, Roey; Salminen, Janne; Newton, Ryan J; Bürgmann, Helmut; Ingram, Lachlan J; Hamer, Ute; Siljanen, Henri M P; Peltoniemi, Krista; Potthast, Karin; Bañeras, Lluís; Hartmann, Martin; Banerjee, Samiran; Yu, Ri-Qing; Nogaro, Geraldine; Richter, Andreas; Koranda, Marianne; Castle, Sarah C; Goberna, Marta; Song, Bongkeun; Chatterjee, Amitava; Nunes, Olga C; Lopes, Ana R; Cao, Yiping; Kaisermann, Aurore; Hallin, Sara; Strickland, Michael S; Garcia-Pausas, Jordi; Barba, Josep; Kang, Hojeong; Isobe, Kazuo; Papaspyrou, Sokratis; Pastorelli, Roberta; Lagomarsino, Alessandra; Lindström, Eva S; Basiliko, Nathan; Nemergut, Diana R

2016-01-01

Microorganisms are vital in mediating the earth's biogeochemical cycles; yet, despite our rapidly increasing ability to explore complex environmental microbial communities, the relationship between microbial community structure and ecosystem processes remains poorly understood. Here, we address a fundamental and unanswered question in microbial ecology: 'When do we need to understand microbial community structure to accurately predict function?' We present a statistical analysis investigating the value of environmental data and microbial community structure independently and in combination for explaining rates of carbon and nitrogen cycling processes within 82 global datasets. Environmental variables were the strongest predictors of process rates but left 44% of variation unexplained on average, suggesting the potential for microbial data to increase model accuracy. Although only 29% of our datasets were significantly improved by adding information on microbial community structure, we observed improvement in models of processes mediated by narrow phylogenetic guilds via functional gene data, and conversely, improvement in models of facultative microbial processes via community diversity metrics. Our results also suggest that microbial diversity can strengthen predictions of respiration rates beyond microbial biomass parameters, as 53% of models were improved by incorporating both sets of predictors compared to 35% by microbial biomass alone. Our analysis represents the first comprehensive analysis of research examining links between microbial community structure and ecosystem function. Taken together, our results indicate that a greater understanding of microbial communities informed by ecological principles may enhance our ability to predict ecosystem process rates relative to assessments based on environmental variables and microbial physiology.

Microbial oceanography: paradigms, processes and promise.

PubMed

Karl, David M

2007-10-01

Life on Earth most likely originated as microorganisms in the sea. Over the past approximately 3.5 billion years, microorganisms have shaped and defined Earth's biosphere and have created conditions that have allowed the evolution of macroorganisms and complex biological communities, including human societies. Recent advances in technology have highlighted the vast and previously unknown genetic information that is contained in extant marine microorganisms, from new protein families to novel metabolic processes. Now there is a unique opportunity, using recent advances in molecular ecology, metagenomics, remote sensing of microorganisms and ecological modelling, to achieve a comprehensive understanding of marine microorganisms and their susceptibility to environmental variability and climate change. Contemporary microbial oceanography is truly a sea of opportunity and excitement.

Hierarchical modeling and inference in ecology: The analysis of data from populations, metapopulations and communities

USGS Publications Warehouse

Royle, J. Andrew; Dorazio, Robert M.

2008-01-01

A guide to data collection, modeling and inference strategies for biological survey data using Bayesian and classical statistical methods. This book describes a general and flexible framework for modeling and inference in ecological systems based on hierarchical models, with a strict focus on the use of probability models and parametric inference. Hierarchical models represent a paradigm shift in the application of statistics to ecological inference problems because they combine explicit models of ecological system structure or dynamics with models of how ecological systems are observed. The principles of hierarchical modeling are developed and applied to problems in population, metapopulation, community, and metacommunity systems. The book provides the first synthetic treatment of many recent methodological advances in ecological modeling and unifies disparate methods and procedures. The authors apply principles of hierarchical modeling to ecological problems, including * occurrence or occupancy models for estimating species distribution * abundance models based on many sampling protocols, including distance sampling * capture-recapture models with individual effects * spatial capture-recapture models based on camera trapping and related methods * population and metapopulation dynamic models * models of biodiversity, community structure and dynamics.

The spatial optimism model research for the regional land use based on the ecological constraint

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

XU, K.; Lu, J.; Chi, Y.

2013-12-01

The study focuses on the Yunnan-Guizhou (i.e. Yunnan province and Guizhou province) Plateau in China. Since the Yunnan-Guizhou region consists of closed basins, the land resources suiting for development are in a shortage, and the ecological problems in the area are quite complicated. In such circumstance, in order to get the applicable basins area and distribution, certain spatial optimism model is needed. In this research, Digital Elevation Model (DEM) and land use data are used to get the boundary rules of the basins distribution. Furthermore, natural risks, ecological risks and human-made ecological risks are integrated to be analyzed. Finally, the spatial overlay analysis method is used to model the developable basins area and distribution for industries and urbanization. The study process can be divided into six steps. First, basins and their distribution need to be recognized. In this way, the DEM data is used to extract the geomorphology characteristics. The plaque regions with gradient under eight degrees are selected. Among these regions, the total area of the plaque with the area above 8 km2 is 54,000 km2, 10% of the total area. These regions are selected to the potential application of industries and urbanization. In the later five steps, analyses are aimed at these regions. Secondly, the natural risks are analyzed. The conditions of the earthquake, debris flow and rainstorm and flood are combined to classify the natural risks. Thirdly, the ecological risks are analyzed containing the ecological sensibility and ecosystem service function importance. According to the regional ecologic features, the sensibility containing the soil erosion, acid rain, stony desertification and survive condition factors is derived and classified according to the medium value to get the ecological sensibility partition. The ecosystem service function importance is classified and divided considering the biology variation protection and water conservation factors. The fourth step is the man-made ecological risks analysis. The mineral resources exploitation, forest resources developing, farming, tourism, industrialization and urbanization are integrated to derive the potential ecological risks made by human activities. The risks weight are given using the expert marking method, Then the man-made ecological risks are classified and divided among the regions. In the fifth step, the comprehensive ecological controlling divisions are obtained based on the above factors classification. At last, the applicable regions and distribution are derived using the spatial overlay analysis removing the higher ecological risks area and considering the land use status. In conclusion, based on the above comprehensive analyses, the applicable basins area are 2,575 km2 and 1,011 km2 respectively for the Yunnan province and Guizhou province. The amount is less than 1% of the perspective province total area focusing on the central part of the two provinces.

Models for inference in dynamic metacommunity systems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dorazio, R.M.; Kery, M.; Royle, J. Andrew; Plattner, M.

2010-01-01

A variety of processes are thought to be involved in the formation and dynamics of species assemblages. For example, various metacommunity theories are based on differences in the relative contributions of dispersal of species among local communities and interactions of species within local communities. Interestingly, metacommunity theories continue to be advanced without much empirical validation. Part of the problem is that statistical models used to analyze typical survey data either fail to specify ecological processes with sufficient complexity or they fail to account for errors in detection of species during sampling. In this paper, we describe a statistical modeling framework for the analysis of metacommunity dynamics that is based on the idea of adopting a unified approach, multispecies occupancy modeling, for computing inferences about individual species, local communities of species, or the entire metacommunity of species. This approach accounts for errors in detection of species during sampling and also allows different metacommunity paradigms to be specified in terms of species-and location-specific probabilities of occurrence, extinction, and colonization: all of which are estimable. In addition, this approach can be used to address inference problems that arise in conservation ecology, such as predicting temporal and spatial changes in biodiversity for use in making conservation decisions. To illustrate, we estimate changes in species composition associated with the species-specific phenologies of flight patterns of butterflies in Switzerland for the purpose of estimating regional differences in biodiversity. ?? 2010 by the Ecological Society of America.

Cultivation of bacteria with ecological capsules in space

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sugiura, K.; Hashimoto, H.; Ishikawa, Y.; Kawasaki, Y.; Kobayashi, K.; Seki, K.; Koike, J.; Saito, T.

1999-01-01

A hermetically materially-closed aquatic microcosm containing bacteria, algae, and invertebrates was developed as a tool for determining the changes of ecological systems in space. The species composition was maintained for more than 365 days. The microcosm could be readily replicated. The results obtained from the simulation models indicated that there is a self-regulation homeostasis in coupling of production and consumption, which make the microcosm remarkably stable, and that the transfer of metabolites by diffusion is one of the important factors determining the behavior of the system. The microcosms were continuously irradiated using a 60 Co source. After 80 days, no elimination of organisms was found at any of the three irradiation levels (0.015, 0.55 and 3.0 mGy/day). The number of radio-resistance bacteria mutants was not increased in the microcosm at three irradiation levels. We proposed to research whether this microcosm is self-sustainable in space. When an aquatic ecosystem comes under stress due to the micro-gravity and enhanced radiation environment in space, whether the ecosystem is self-sustainable is not known. An aquatic ecosystem shows what happens as a result of the self-organizational processes of selection and adaptation. A microcosm is a useful tool for understanding such processes. We have proposed researching whether a microcosm is self-sustainable in space. The benefits of this project will be: (1) To acquire data for design of a Controlled Ecological Life Support System, (2) Possibility of microbial mutation in a space station. We report that a hermetically materially-closed microcosm, which could be a useful tool for determining changes of ecological processes in space, was developed, and that the effects of microgravity and enhanced radiation on the hermetically materially-closed microcosm were estimated through measurements on the Earth and simulation models.

Thermal Infrared Remote Sensing for Analysis of Landscape Ecological Processes: Methods and Applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Quattrochi, Dale A.; Luvall, Jeffrey C.

1998-01-01

Thermal Infrared (TIR) remote sensing data can provide important measurements of surface energy fluxes and temperatures, which are integral to understanding landscape processes and responses. One example of this is the successful application of TIR remote sensing data to estimate evapotranspiration and soil moisture, where results from a number of studies suggest that satellite-based measurements from TIR remote sensing data can lead to more accurate regional-scale estimates of daily evapotranspiration. With further refinement in analytical techniques and models, the use of TIR data from airborne and satellite sensors could be very useful for parameterizing surface moisture conditions and developing better simulations of landscape energy exchange over a variety of conditions and space and time scales. Thus, TIR remote sensing data can significantly contribute to the observation, measurement, and analysis of energy balance characteristics (i.e., the fluxes and redistribution of thermal energy within and across the land surface) as an implicit and important aspect of landscape dynamics and landscape functioning. The application of TIR remote sensing data in landscape ecological studies has been limited, however, for several fundamental reasons that relate primarily to the perceived difficulty in use and availability of these data by the landscape ecology community, and from the fragmentation of references on TIR remote sensing throughout the scientific literature. It is our purpose here to provide evidence from work that has employed TIR remote sensing for analysis of landscape characteristics to illustrate how these data can provide important data for the improved measurement of landscape energy response and energy flux relationships. We examine the direct or indirect use of TIR remote sensing data to analyze landscape biophysical characteristics, thereby offering some insight on how these data can be used more robustly to further the understanding and modeling of landscape ecological processes.

Conditional heteroscedasticity as a leading indicator of ecological regime shifts.

PubMed

Seekell, David A; Carpenter, Stephen R; Pace, Michael L

2011-10-01

Regime shifts are massive, often irreversible, rearrangements of nonlinear ecological processes that occur when systems pass critical transition points. Ecological regime shifts sometimes have severe consequences for human well-being, including eutrophication in lakes, desertification, and species extinctions. Theoretical and laboratory evidence suggests that statistical anomalies may be detectable leading indicators of regime shifts in ecological time series, making it possible to foresee and potentially avert incipient regime shifts. Conditional heteroscedasticity is persistent variance characteristic of time series with clustered volatility. Here, we analyze conditional heteroscedasticity as a potential leading indicator of regime shifts in ecological time series. We evaluate conditional heteroscedasticity by using ecological models with and without four types of critical transition. On approaching transition points, all time series contain significant conditional heteroscedasticity. This signal is detected hundreds of time steps in advance of the regime shift. Time series without regime shifts do not have significant conditional heteroscedasticity. Because probability values are easily associated with tests for conditional heteroscedasticity, detection of false positives in time series without regime shifts is minimized. This property reduces the need for a reference system to compare with the perturbed system.

Application of system dynamics and participatory spatial group model building in animal health: A case study of East Coast Fever interventions in Lundazi and Monze districts of Zambia

PubMed Central

Skjerve, Eystein; Rich, Magda; Rich, Karl M.

2017-01-01

East Coast Fever (ECF) is the most economically important production disease among traditional beef cattle farmers in Zambia. Despite the disease control efforts by the government, donors, and farmers, ECF cases are increasing. Why does ECF oscillate over time? Can alternative approaches such as systems thinking contribute solutions to the complex ECF problem, avoid unintended consequences, and achieve sustainable results? To answer these research questions and inform the design and implementation of ECF interventions, we qualitatively investigated the influence of dynamic socio-economic, cultural, and ecological factors. We used system dynamics modelling to specify these dynamics qualitatively, and an innovative participatory framework called spatial group model building (SGMB). SGMB uses participatory geographical information system (GIS) concepts and techniques to capture the role of spatial phenomenon in the context of complex systems, allowing stakeholders to identify spatial phenomenon directly on physical maps and integrate such information in model development. Our SGMB process convened focus groups of beef value chain stakeholders in two distinct production systems. The focus groups helped to jointly construct a series of interrelated system dynamics models that described ECF in a broader systems context. Thus, a complementary objective of this study was to demonstrate the applicability of system dynamics modelling and SGMB in animal health. The SGMB process revealed policy leverage points in the beef cattle value chain that could be targeted to improve ECF control. For example, policies that develop sustainable and stable cattle markets and improve household income availability may have positive feedback effects on investment in animal health. The results obtained from a SGMB process also demonstrated that a “one-size-fits-all” approach may not be equally effective in policing ECF in different agro-ecological zones due to the complex interactions of socio-ecological context with important, and often ignored, spatial patterns. PMID:29244862

Application of system dynamics and participatory spatial group model building in animal health: A case study of East Coast Fever interventions in Lundazi and Monze districts of Zambia.

PubMed

Mumba, Chisoni; Skjerve, Eystein; Rich, Magda; Rich, Karl M

2017-01-01

East Coast Fever (ECF) is the most economically important production disease among traditional beef cattle farmers in Zambia. Despite the disease control efforts by the government, donors, and farmers, ECF cases are increasing. Why does ECF oscillate over time? Can alternative approaches such as systems thinking contribute solutions to the complex ECF problem, avoid unintended consequences, and achieve sustainable results? To answer these research questions and inform the design and implementation of ECF interventions, we qualitatively investigated the influence of dynamic socio-economic, cultural, and ecological factors. We used system dynamics modelling to specify these dynamics qualitatively, and an innovative participatory framework called spatial group model building (SGMB). SGMB uses participatory geographical information system (GIS) concepts and techniques to capture the role of spatial phenomenon in the context of complex systems, allowing stakeholders to identify spatial phenomenon directly on physical maps and integrate such information in model development. Our SGMB process convened focus groups of beef value chain stakeholders in two distinct production systems. The focus groups helped to jointly construct a series of interrelated system dynamics models that described ECF in a broader systems context. Thus, a complementary objective of this study was to demonstrate the applicability of system dynamics modelling and SGMB in animal health. The SGMB process revealed policy leverage points in the beef cattle value chain that could be targeted to improve ECF control. For example, policies that develop sustainable and stable cattle markets and improve household income availability may have positive feedback effects on investment in animal health. The results obtained from a SGMB process also demonstrated that a "one-size-fits-all" approach may not be equally effective in policing ECF in different agro-ecological zones due to the complex interactions of socio-ecological context with important, and often ignored, spatial patterns.

Ecological and evolutionary consequences of niche construction for its agent.

PubMed

Kylafis, Grigoris; Loreau, Michel

2008-10-01

Niche construction can generate ecological and evolutionary feedbacks that have been underinvestigated so far. We present an eco-evolutionary model that incorporates the process of niche construction to reveal its effects on the ecology and evolution of the niche-constructing agent. We consider a simple plant-soil nutrient ecosystem in which plants have the ability to increase the input of inorganic nutrient as an example of positive niche construction. On an ecological time scale, the model shows that niche construction allows the persistence of plants under infertile soil conditions that would otherwise lead to their extinction. This expansion of plants' niche, however, requires a high enough rate of niche construction and a high enough initial plant biomass to fuel the positive ecological feedback between plants and their soil environment. On an evolutionary time scale, we consider that the rates of niche construction and nutrient uptake coevolve in plants while a trade-off constrains their values. Different evolutionary outcomes are possible depending on the shape of the trade-off. We show that niche construction results in an evolutionary feedback between plants and their soil environment such that plants partially regulate soil nutrient content. The direct benefit accruing to plants, however, plays a crucial role in the evolutionary advantage of niche construction.

Interactions of landscape disturbances and climate change dictate ecological pattern and process: spatial modeling of wildfire, insect, and disease dynamics under future climates

Treesearch

Rachel A. Loehman; Robert E. Keane; Lisa M. Holsinger; Zhiwei Wu

2017-01-01

Context: Interactions among disturbances, climate, and vegetation influence landscape patterns and ecosystem processes. Climate changes, exotic invasions, beetle outbreaks, altered fire regimes, and human activities may interact to produce landscapes that appear and function beyond historical analogs. Objectives We used the mechanistic...

Landscape pattern and ecological process in the Sierra Nevada

Treesearch

Dean L. Urban

2004-01-01

The Sierran Global Change Program in Sequoia-Kings Canyon and Yosemite National Parks includes a nearly decade-long integrated study of the interactions between climate, forest processes, and fire. This study is characterized by three recurring themes: (1) the use of systems-level models as a framework for integration and synthesis, (2) an effort to extrapolate an...

Predicting the sensitivity of populations from individual exposure to chemicals: the role of ecological interactions.

PubMed

Gabsi, Faten; Schäffer, Andreas; Preuss, Thomas G

2014-07-01

Population responses to chemical stress exposure are influenced by nonchemical, environmental processes such as species interactions. A realistic quantification of chemical toxicity to populations calls for the use of methodologies that integrate these multiple stress effects. The authors used an individual-based model for Daphnia magna as a virtual laboratory to determine the influence of ecological interactions on population sensitivity to chemicals with different modes of action on individuals. In the model, hypothetical chemical toxicity targeted different vital individual-level processes: reproduction, survival, feeding rate, or somatic growth rate. As for species interactions, predatory and competition effects on daphnid populations were implemented following a worst-case approach. The population abundance was simulated at different food levels and exposure scenarios, assuming exposure to chemical stress solely or in combination with either competition or predation. The chemical always targeted one vital endpoint. Equal toxicity-inhibition levels differently affected the population abundance with and without species interactions. In addition, population responses to chemicals were highly sensitive to the environmental stressor (predator or competitor) and to the food level. Results show that population resilience cannot be attributed to chemical stress only. Accounting for the relevant ecological interactions would reduce uncertainties when extrapolating effects of chemicals from individuals to the population level. Validated population models should be used for a more realistic risk assessment of chemicals. © 2014 SETAC.

BioVeL: a virtual laboratory for data analysis and modelling in biodiversity science and ecology.

PubMed

Hardisty, Alex R; Bacall, Finn; Beard, Niall; Balcázar-Vargas, Maria-Paula; Balech, Bachir; Barcza, Zoltán; Bourlat, Sarah J; De Giovanni, Renato; de Jong, Yde; De Leo, Francesca; Dobor, Laura; Donvito, Giacinto; Fellows, Donal; Guerra, Antonio Fernandez; Ferreira, Nuno; Fetyukova, Yuliya; Fosso, Bruno; Giddy, Jonathan; Goble, Carole; Güntsch, Anton; Haines, Robert; Ernst, Vera Hernández; Hettling, Hannes; Hidy, Dóra; Horváth, Ferenc; Ittzés, Dóra; Ittzés, Péter; Jones, Andrew; Kottmann, Renzo; Kulawik, Robert; Leidenberger, Sonja; Lyytikäinen-Saarenmaa, Päivi; Mathew, Cherian; Morrison, Norman; Nenadic, Aleksandra; de la Hidalga, Abraham Nieva; Obst, Matthias; Oostermeijer, Gerard; Paymal, Elisabeth; Pesole, Graziano; Pinto, Salvatore; Poigné, Axel; Fernandez, Francisco Quevedo; Santamaria, Monica; Saarenmaa, Hannu; Sipos, Gergely; Sylla, Karl-Heinz; Tähtinen, Marko; Vicario, Saverio; Vos, Rutger Aldo; Williams, Alan R; Yilmaz, Pelin

2016-10-20

Making forecasts about biodiversity and giving support to policy relies increasingly on large collections of data held electronically, and on substantial computational capability and capacity to analyse, model, simulate and predict using such data. However, the physically distributed nature of data resources and of expertise in advanced analytical tools creates many challenges for the modern scientist. Across the wider biological sciences, presenting such capabilities on the Internet (as "Web services") and using scientific workflow systems to compose them for particular tasks is a practical way to carry out robust "in silico" science. However, use of this approach in biodiversity science and ecology has thus far been quite limited. BioVeL is a virtual laboratory for data analysis and modelling in biodiversity science and ecology, freely accessible via the Internet. BioVeL includes functions for accessing and analysing data through curated Web services; for performing complex in silico analysis through exposure of R programs, workflows, and batch processing functions; for on-line collaboration through sharing of workflows and workflow runs; for experiment documentation through reproducibility and repeatability; and for computational support via seamless connections to supporting computing infrastructures. We developed and improved more than 60 Web services with significant potential in many different kinds of data analysis and modelling tasks. We composed reusable workflows using these Web services, also incorporating R programs. Deploying these tools into an easy-to-use and accessible 'virtual laboratory', free via the Internet, we applied the workflows in several diverse case studies. We opened the virtual laboratory for public use and through a programme of external engagement we actively encouraged scientists and third party application and tool developers to try out the services and contribute to the activity. Our work shows we can deliver an operational, scalable and flexible Internet-based virtual laboratory to meet new demands for data processing and analysis in biodiversity science and ecology. In particular, we have successfully integrated existing and popular tools and practices from different scientific disciplines to be used in biodiversity and ecological research.

Social Ecology, Genomics, and African American Health: A Nonlinear Dynamical Perspective

PubMed Central

Madhere, Serge; Harrell, Jules; Royal, Charmaine D. M.

2009-01-01

This article offers a model that clarifies the degree of interdependence between social ecology and genomic processes. Drawing on principles from nonlinear dynamics, the model delineates major lines of bifurcation involving people's habitat, their family health history, and collective catastrophes experienced by their community. It shows how mechanisms of resource acquisition, depletion, and preservation can lead to disruptions in basic metabolism and in the activity of cytokines, neurotransmitters, and protein kinases, thus giving impetus to epigenetic changes. The hypotheses generated from the model are discussed throughout the article for their relevance to health problems among African Americans. Where appropriate, they are examined in light of data from the National Vital Statistics System. Multiple health outcomes are considered. For any one of them, the model makes clear the unique and converging contributions of multiple antecedent factors. PMID:19672481

Mistaking geography for biology: inferring processes from species distributions.

PubMed

Warren, Dan L; Cardillo, Marcel; Rosauer, Dan F; Bolnick, Daniel I

2014-10-01

Over the past few decades, there has been a rapid proliferation of statistical methods that infer evolutionary and ecological processes from data on species distributions. These methods have led to considerable new insights, but they often fail to account for the effects of historical biogeography on present-day species distributions. Because the geography of speciation can lead to patterns of spatial and temporal autocorrelation in the distributions of species within a clade, this can result in misleading inferences about the importance of deterministic processes in generating spatial patterns of biodiversity. In this opinion article, we discuss ways in which patterns of species distributions driven by historical biogeography are often interpreted as evidence of particular evolutionary or ecological processes. We focus on three areas that are especially prone to such misinterpretations: community phylogenetics, environmental niche modelling, and analyses of beta diversity (compositional turnover of biodiversity). Crown Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modeling Trans-Scale Social Processes

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-05-01

community as an ecology of games • Ludwig Wittgenstein , 1958 – Philosophical investigations • Harold Garfinkel, 1963 – A concept of, and experiments with...and realize qualitative game insights Multigame interactions Ludwig Wittgenstein . Family Resemblances among Games • Consider the proceedings

Iterative near-term ecological forecasting: Needs, opportunities, and challenges

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dietze, Michael C.; Fox, Andrew; Beck-Johnson, Lindsay; Betancourt, Julio L.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Jarnevich, Catherine S.; Keitt, Timothy H.; Kenney, Melissa A.; Laney, Christine M.; Larsen, Laurel G.; Loescher, Henry W.; Lunch, Claire K.; Pijanowski, Bryan; Randerson, James T.; Read, Emily; Tredennick, Andrew T.; Vargas, Rodrigo; Weathers, Kathleen C.; White, Ethan P.

2018-01-01

Two foundational questions about sustainability are “How are ecosystems and the services they provide going to change in the future?” and “How do human decisions affect these trajectories?” Answering these questions requires an ability to forecast ecological processes. Unfortunately, most ecological forecasts focus on centennial-scale climate responses, therefore neither meeting the needs of near-term (daily to decadal) environmental decision-making nor allowing comparison of specific, quantitative predictions to new observational data, one of the strongest tests of scientific theory. Near-term forecasts provide the opportunity to iteratively cycle between performing analyses and updating predictions in light of new evidence. This iterative process of gaining feedback, building experience, and correcting models and methods is critical for improving forecasts. Iterative, near-term forecasting will accelerate ecological research, make it more relevant to society, and inform sustainable decision-making under high uncertainty and adaptive management. Here, we identify the immediate scientific and societal needs, opportunities, and challenges for iterative near-term ecological forecasting. Over the past decade, data volume, variety, and accessibility have greatly increased, but challenges remain in interoperability, latency, and uncertainty quantification. Similarly, ecologists have made considerable advances in applying computational, informatic, and statistical methods, but opportunities exist for improving forecast-specific theory, methods, and cyberinfrastructure. Effective forecasting will also require changes in scientific training, culture, and institutions. The need to start forecasting is now; the time for making ecology more predictive is here, and learning by doing is the fastest route to drive the science forward.

Iterative near-term ecological forecasting: Needs, opportunities, and challenges.

PubMed

Dietze, Michael C; Fox, Andrew; Beck-Johnson, Lindsay M; Betancourt, Julio L; Hooten, Mevin B; Jarnevich, Catherine S; Keitt, Timothy H; Kenney, Melissa A; Laney, Christine M; Larsen, Laurel G; Loescher, Henry W; Lunch, Claire K; Pijanowski, Bryan C; Randerson, James T; Read, Emily K; Tredennick, Andrew T; Vargas, Rodrigo; Weathers, Kathleen C; White, Ethan P

2018-02-13

Two foundational questions about sustainability are "How are ecosystems and the services they provide going to change in the future?" and "How do human decisions affect these trajectories?" Answering these questions requires an ability to forecast ecological processes. Unfortunately, most ecological forecasts focus on centennial-scale climate responses, therefore neither meeting the needs of near-term (daily to decadal) environmental decision-making nor allowing comparison of specific, quantitative predictions to new observational data, one of the strongest tests of scientific theory. Near-term forecasts provide the opportunity to iteratively cycle between performing analyses and updating predictions in light of new evidence. This iterative process of gaining feedback, building experience, and correcting models and methods is critical for improving forecasts. Iterative, near-term forecasting will accelerate ecological research, make it more relevant to society, and inform sustainable decision-making under high uncertainty and adaptive management. Here, we identify the immediate scientific and societal needs, opportunities, and challenges for iterative near-term ecological forecasting. Over the past decade, data volume, variety, and accessibility have greatly increased, but challenges remain in interoperability, latency, and uncertainty quantification. Similarly, ecologists have made considerable advances in applying computational, informatic, and statistical methods, but opportunities exist for improving forecast-specific theory, methods, and cyberinfrastructure. Effective forecasting will also require changes in scientific training, culture, and institutions. The need to start forecasting is now; the time for making ecology more predictive is here, and learning by doing is the fastest route to drive the science forward.

From actors to agents in socio-ecological systems models

PubMed Central

Rounsevell, M. D. A.; Robinson, D. T.; Murray-Rust, D.

2012-01-01

The ecosystem service concept has emphasized the role of people within socio-ecological systems (SESs). In this paper, we review and discuss alternative ways of representing people, their behaviour and decision-making processes in SES models using an agent-based modelling (ABM) approach. We also explore how ABM can be empirically grounded using information from social survey. The capacity for ABM to be generalized beyond case studies represents a crucial next step in modelling SESs, although this comes with considerable intellectual challenges. We propose the notion of human functional types, as an analogy of plant functional types, to support the expansion (scaling) of ABM to larger areas. The expansion of scope also implies the need to represent institutional agents in SES models in order to account for alternative governance structures and policy feedbacks. Further development in the coupling of human-environment systems would contribute considerably to better application and use of the ecosystem service concept. PMID:22144388

From actors to agents in socio-ecological systems models.

PubMed

Rounsevell, M D A; Robinson, D T; Murray-Rust, D

2012-01-19

The ecosystem service concept has emphasized the role of people within socio-ecological systems (SESs). In this paper, we review and discuss alternative ways of representing people, their behaviour and decision-making processes in SES models using an agent-based modelling (ABM) approach. We also explore how ABM can be empirically grounded using information from social survey. The capacity for ABM to be generalized beyond case studies represents a crucial next step in modelling SESs, although this comes with considerable intellectual challenges. We propose the notion of human functional types, as an analogy of plant functional types, to support the expansion (scaling) of ABM to larger areas. The expansion of scope also implies the need to represent institutional agents in SES models in order to account for alternative governance structures and policy feedbacks. Further development in the coupling of human-environment systems would contribute considerably to better application and use of the ecosystem service concept.

Calibration and analysis of genome-based models for microbial ecology.

PubMed

Louca, Stilianos; Doebeli, Michael

2015-10-16

Microbial ecosystem modeling is complicated by the large number of unknown parameters and the lack of appropriate calibration tools. Here we present a novel computational framework for modeling microbial ecosystems, which combines genome-based model construction with statistical analysis and calibration to experimental data. Using this framework, we examined the dynamics of a community of Escherichia coli strains that emerged in laboratory evolution experiments, during which an ancestral strain diversified into two coexisting ecotypes. We constructed a microbial community model comprising the ancestral and the evolved strains, which we calibrated using separate monoculture experiments. Simulations reproduced the successional dynamics in the evolution experiments, and pathway activation patterns observed in microarray transcript profiles. Our approach yielded detailed insights into the metabolic processes that drove bacterial diversification, involving acetate cross-feeding and competition for organic carbon and oxygen. Our framework provides a missing link towards a data-driven mechanistic microbial ecology.

Joint Ecosystem Modeling (JEM) ecological model documentation volume 2: roseate spoonbill (Platalea ajaja) landscape habitat suitability index v1.0.0

USGS Publications Warehouse

Romañach, Stephanie S.; Conzelmann, Craig; Daugherty, Adam; Lorenz, Jerome J.; Hunnicutt, Christina; Mazzotti, Frank J.

2011-01-01

Ecological conditions in the Greater Everglades have changed due to human activities, including the construction of canals to divert water away from the core of the landscape. Current and planned restoration projects are designed to produce a natural sheetflow of water across the landscape. This restoration of water flow should provide an increase in freshwater needed to restore natural salinities to the fringing estuarine ecosystem. In this report, we describe a Landscape Habitat Suitability Index model designed to evaluate alternative restoration plans for the benefit of a key species, the roseate spoonbill (Platalea ajaja). Model output has shown to be a good indicator of areas capable of supporting spoonbills. Use of this model will allow examination of the potential response of this key species to water management proposed through the Greater Everglades restoration process.

A performance improvement case study in aircraft maintenance and its implications for hazard identification.

PubMed

Ward, Marie; McDonald, Nick; Morrison, Rabea; Gaynor, Des; Nugent, Tony

2010-02-01

Aircraft maintenance is a highly regulated, safety critical, complex and competitive industry. There is a need to develop innovative solutions to address process efficiency without compromising safety and quality. This paper presents the case that in order to improve a highly complex system such as aircraft maintenance, it is necessary to develop a comprehensive and ecologically valid model of the operational system, which represents not just what is meant to happen, but what normally happens. This model then provides the backdrop against which to change or improve the system. A performance report, the Blocker Report, specific to aircraft maintenance and related to the model was developed gathering data on anything that 'blocks' task or check performance. A Blocker Resolution Process was designed to resolve blockers and improve the current check system. Significant results were obtained for the company in the first trial and implications for safety management systems and hazard identification are discussed. Statement of Relevance: Aircraft maintenance is a safety critical, complex, competitive industry with a need to develop innovative solutions to address process and safety efficiency. This research addresses this through the development of a comprehensive and ecologically valid model of the system linked with a performance reporting and resolution system.

Understanding psychiatric disorder by capturing ecologically relevant features of learning and decision-making.

PubMed

Scholl, Jacqueline; Klein-Flügge, Miriam

2017-09-28

Recent research in cognitive neuroscience has begun to uncover the processes underlying increasingly complex voluntary behaviours, including learning and decision-making. Partly this success has been possible by progressing from simple experimental tasks to paradigms that incorporate more ecological features. More specifically, the premise is that to understand cognitions and brain functions relevant for real life, we need to introduce some of the ecological challenges that we have evolved to solve. This often entails an increase in task complexity, which can be managed by using computational models to help parse complex behaviours into specific component mechanisms. Here we propose that using computational models with tasks that capture ecologically relevant learning and decision-making processes may provide a critical advantage for capturing the mechanisms underlying symptoms of disorders in psychiatry. As a result, it may help develop mechanistic approaches towards diagnosis and treatment. We begin this review by mapping out the basic concepts and models of learning and decision-making. We then move on to consider specific challenges that emerge in realistic environments and describe how they can be captured by tasks. These include changes of context, uncertainty, reflexive/emotional biases, cost-benefit decision-making, and balancing exploration and exploitation. Where appropriate we highlight future or current links to psychiatry. We particularly draw examples from research on clinical depression, a disorder that greatly compromises motivated behaviours in real-life, but where simpler paradigms have yielded mixed results. Finally, we highlight several paradigms that could be used to help provide new insights into the mechanisms of psychiatric disorders. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Sampling in ecology and evolution - bridging the gap between theory and practice

USGS Publications Warehouse

Albert, C.H.; Yoccoz, N.G.; Edwards, T.C.; Graham, C.H.; Zimmermann, N.E.; Thuiller, W.

2010-01-01

Sampling is a key issue for answering most ecological and evolutionary questions. The importance of developing a rigorous sampling design tailored to specific questions has already been discussed in the ecological and sampling literature and has provided useful tools and recommendations to sample and analyse ecological data. However, sampling issues are often difficult to overcome in ecological studies due to apparent inconsistencies between theory and practice, often leading to the implementation of simplified sampling designs that suffer from unknown biases. Moreover, we believe that classical sampling principles which are based on estimation of means and variances are insufficient to fully address many ecological questions that rely on estimating relationships between a response and a set of predictor variables over time and space. Our objective is thus to highlight the importance of selecting an appropriate sampling space and an appropriate sampling design. We also emphasize the importance of using prior knowledge of the study system to estimate models or complex parameters and thus better understand ecological patterns and processes generating these patterns. Using a semi-virtual simulation study as an illustration we reveal how the selection of the space (e.g. geographic, climatic), in which the sampling is designed, influences the patterns that can be ultimately detected. We also demonstrate the inefficiency of common sampling designs to reveal response curves between ecological variables and climatic gradients. Further, we show that response-surface methodology, which has rarely been used in ecology, is much more efficient than more traditional methods. Finally, we discuss the use of prior knowledge, simulation studies and model-based designs in defining appropriate sampling designs. We conclude by a call for development of methods to unbiasedly estimate nonlinear ecologically relevant parameters, in order to make inferences while fulfilling requirements of both sampling theory and field work logistics. ?? 2010 The Authors.

Combined measurement and modeling of the hydrological impact of hydraulic redistribution using CLM4.5 at eight AmeriFlux sites

Treesearch

Congsheng Fu; Guiling Wang; Michael L. Goulden; Russell L. Scott; Kenneth Bible; Zoe G. Cardon

2016-01-01

Effects of hydraulic redistribution (HR) on hydrological, biogeochemical, and ecological processes have been demonstrated in the field, but the current generation of standard earth system models does not include a representation of HR. Though recent studies have examined the effect of incorporating HR into land surface models, few (if any) have done cross-site...

Understanding Water-Energy-Ecology Nexus from an Integrated Earth-Human System Perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, H. Y.; Zhang, X.; Wan, W.; Zhuang, Y.; Hejazi, M. I.; Leung, L. R.

2017-12-01

Both Earth and human systems exert notable controls on streamflow and stream temperature that influence energy production and ecosystem health. An integrated water model representing river processes and reservoir regulations has been developed and coupled to a land surface model and an integrated assessment model of energy, land, water, and socioeconomics to investigate the energy-water-ecology nexus in the context of climate change and water management. Simulations driven by two climate change projections following the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 radiative forcing scenarios, with and without water management, are analyzed to evaluate the individual and combined effects of climate change and water management on streamflow and stream temperature in the U.S. The simulations revealed important impacts of climate change and water management on hydrological droughts. The simulations also revealed the dynamics of competition between changes in water demand and water availability in the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios that influence streamflow and stream temperature, with important consequences to thermoelectricity production and future survival of juvenile Salmon. The integrated water model is being implemented to the Accelerated Climate Modeling for Energy (ACME), a coupled Earth System Model, to enable future investigations of the energy-water-ecology nexus in the integrated Earth-Human system.

The AquaDEB project (phase I): Analysing the physiological flexibility of aquatic species and connecting physiological diversity to ecological and evolutionary processes by using Dynamic Energy Budgets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alunno-Bruscia, Marianne; van der Veer, Henk W.; Kooijman, Sebastiaan A. L. M.

2009-08-01

The European Research Project AquaDEB (2007-2011, http://www.ifremer.fr/aquadeb/) is joining skills and expertise of some French and Dutch research institutes and universities to analyse the physiological flexibility of aquatic organisms and to link it to ecological and evolutionary processes within a common theoretical framework for quantitative bioenergetics [Kooijman, S.A.L.M., 2000. Dynamic energy and mass budgets in biological systems. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge]. The main scientific objectives in AquaDEB are i) to study and compare the sensitivity of aquatic species (mainly molluscs and fish) to environmental variability of natural or human origin, and ii) to evaluate the related consequences at different biological levels (individual, population, ecosystem) and temporal scales (life cycle, population dynamics, evolution). At mid-term life, the AquaDEB collaboration has already yielded interesting results by quantifying bio-energetic processes of various aquatic species (e.g. molluscs, fish, crustaceans, algae) with a single mathematical framework. It has also allowed to federate scientists with different backgrounds, e.g. mathematics, microbiology, ecology, chemistry, and working in different fields, e.g. aquaculture, fisheries, ecology, agronomy, ecotoxicology, climate change. For the two coming years, the focus of the AquaDEB collaboration will be in priority: (i) to compare energetic and physiological strategies among species through the DEB parameter values and to identify the factors responsible for any differences in bioenergetics and physiology; and to compare dynamic (DEB) versus static (SEB) energy models to study the physiological performance of aquatic species; (ii) to consider different scenarios of environmental disruption (excess of nutrients, diffuse or massive pollution, exploitation by man, climate change) to forecast effects on growth, reproduction and survival of key species; (iii) to scale up the models for a few species from the individual level up to the level of evolutionary processes.

The impact of ARM on climate modeling

DOE PAGES

Randall, David A.; Del Genio, Anthony D.; Donner, Lee J.; ...

2016-07-15

Climate models are among humanity’s most ambitious and elaborate creations. They are designed to simulate the interactions of the atmosphere, ocean, land surface, and cryosphere on time scales far beyond the limits of deterministic predictability and including the effects of time-dependent external forcings. The processes involved include radiative transfer, fluid dynamics, microphysics, and some aspects of geochemistry, biology, and ecology. The models explicitly simulate processes on spatial scales ranging from the circumference of Earth down to 100 km or smaller and implicitly include the effects of processes on even smaller scales down to a micron or so. In addition, themore » atmospheric component of a climate model can be called an atmospheric global circulation model (AGCM).« less

The quest for a new modelling framework in mathematical biology. Comment on "On the interplay between mathematics and biology: Hallmarks towards a new systems biology" by N. Bellomo et al.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eftimie, Raluca

2015-03-01

One of the main unsolved problems of modern physics is finding a "theory of everything" - a theory that can explain, with the help of mathematics, all physical aspects of the universe. While the laws of physics could explain some aspects of the biology of living systems (e.g., the phenomenological interpretation of movement of cells and animals), there are other aspects specific to biology that cannot be captured by physics models. For example, it is generally accepted that the evolution of a cell-based system is influenced by the activation state of cells (e.g., only activated and functional immune cells can fight diseases); on the other hand, the evolution of an animal-based system can be influenced by the psychological state (e.g., distress) of animals. Therefore, the last 10-20 years have seen also a quest for a "theory of everything"-approach extended to biology, with researchers trying to propose mathematical modelling frameworks that can explain various biological phenomena ranging from ecology to developmental biology and medicine [1,2,6]. The basic idea behind this approach can be found in a few reviews on ecology and cell biology [6,7,9-11], where researchers suggested that due to the parallel between the micro-scale dynamics and the emerging macro-scale phenomena in both cell biology and in ecology, many mathematical methods used for ecological processes could be adapted to cancer modelling [7,9] or to modelling in immunology [11]. However, this approach generally involved the use of different models to describe different biological aspects (e.g., models for cell and animal movement, models for competition between cells or animals, etc.).

Combinatorial Codes and Labeled Lines: How Insects Use Olfactory Cues to Find and Judge Food, Mates, and Oviposition Sites in Complex Environments

PubMed Central

Haverkamp, Alexander; Hansson, Bill S.; Knaden, Markus

2018-01-01

Insects, including those which provide vital ecosystems services as well as those which are devastating pests or disease vectors, locate their resources mainly based on olfaction. Understanding insect olfaction not only from a neurobiological but also from an ecological perspective is therefore crucial to balance insect control and conservation. However, among all sensory stimuli olfaction is particularly hard to grasp. Our chemical environment is made up of thousands of different compounds, which might again be detected by our nose in multiple ways. Due to this complexity, researchers have only recently begun to explore the chemosensory ecology of model organisms such as Drosophila, linking the tools of chemical ecology to those of neurogenetics. This cross-disciplinary approach has enabled several studies that range from single odors and their ecological relevance, via olfactory receptor genes and neuronal processing, up to the insects' behavior. We learned that the insect olfactory system employs strategies of combinatorial coding to process general odors as well as labeled lines for specific compounds that call for an immediate response. These studies opened new doors to the olfactory world in which insects feed, oviposit, and mate. PMID:29449815

Microbes as engines of ecosystem function: When does community structure enhance predictions of ecosystem processes?

DOE PAGES

Graham, Emily B.; Knelman, Joseph E.; Schindlbacher, Andreas; ...

2016-02-24

In this study, microorganisms are vital in mediating the earth’s biogeochemical cycles; yet, despite our rapidly increasing ability to explore complex environmental microbial communities, the relationship between microbial community structure and ecosystem processes remains poorly understood. Here, we address a fundamental and unanswered question in microbial ecology: ‘When do we need to understand microbial community structure to accurately predict function?’ We present a statistical analysis investigating the value of environmental data and microbial community structure independently and in combination for explaining rates of carbon and nitrogen cycling processes within 82 global datasets. Environmental variables were the strongest predictors of processmore » rates but left 44% of variation unexplained on average, suggesting the potential for microbial data to increase model accuracy. Although only 29% of our datasets were significantly improved by adding information on microbial community structure, we observed improvement in models of processes mediated by narrow phylogenetic guilds via functional gene data, and conversely, improvement in models of facultative microbial processes via community diversity metrics. Our results also suggest that microbial diversity can strengthen predictions of respiration rates beyond microbial biomass parameters, as 53% of models were improved by incorporating both sets of predictors compared to 35% by microbial biomass alone. Our analysis represents the first comprehensive analysis of research examining links between microbial community structure and ecosystem function. Taken together, our results indicate that a greater understanding of microbial communities informed by ecological principles may enhance our ability to predict ecosystem process rates relative to assessments based on environmental variables and microbial physiology.« less

Microbes as engines of ecosystem function: When does community structure enhance predictions of ecosystem processes?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Graham, Emily B.; Knelman, Joseph E.; Schindlbacher, Andreas

In this study, microorganisms are vital in mediating the earth’s biogeochemical cycles; yet, despite our rapidly increasing ability to explore complex environmental microbial communities, the relationship between microbial community structure and ecosystem processes remains poorly understood. Here, we address a fundamental and unanswered question in microbial ecology: ‘When do we need to understand microbial community structure to accurately predict function?’ We present a statistical analysis investigating the value of environmental data and microbial community structure independently and in combination for explaining rates of carbon and nitrogen cycling processes within 82 global datasets. Environmental variables were the strongest predictors of processmore » rates but left 44% of variation unexplained on average, suggesting the potential for microbial data to increase model accuracy. Although only 29% of our datasets were significantly improved by adding information on microbial community structure, we observed improvement in models of processes mediated by narrow phylogenetic guilds via functional gene data, and conversely, improvement in models of facultative microbial processes via community diversity metrics. Our results also suggest that microbial diversity can strengthen predictions of respiration rates beyond microbial biomass parameters, as 53% of models were improved by incorporating both sets of predictors compared to 35% by microbial biomass alone. Our analysis represents the first comprehensive analysis of research examining links between microbial community structure and ecosystem function. Taken together, our results indicate that a greater understanding of microbial communities informed by ecological principles may enhance our ability to predict ecosystem process rates relative to assessments based on environmental variables and microbial physiology.« less

Advancing Ecological Models to Compare Scale in Multi-Level Educational Change

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Woo, David James

2016-01-01

Education systems as units of analysis have been metaphorically likened to ecologies to model change. However, ecological models to date have been ineffective in modelling educational change that is multi-scale and occurs across multiple levels of an education system. Thus, this paper advances two innovative, ecological frameworks that improve on…

Challenges of forest landscape modeling - simulating large landscapes and validating results

Treesearch

Hong S. He; Jian Yang; Stephen R. Shifley; Frank R. Thompson

2011-01-01

Over the last 20 years, we have seen a rapid development in the field of forest landscape modeling, fueled by both technological and theoretical advances. Two fundamental challenges have persisted since the inception of FLMs: (1) balancing realistic simulation of ecological processes at broad spatial and temporal scales with computing capacity, and (2) validating...

Spiraling down the river continuum: stream ecology and the U-shaped curve

Treesearch

Jackson R. Webster

2007-01-01

The spiraling concept provides an explicit approach to modeling the longitudinal linkages within a river continuum. I developed a spiraling-based model for particulate organic C dynamics in the Little Tennessee River to synthesize existing data and to illustrate our current understanding of ecosystem processes in river ecosystems. The Little Tennessee River is a medium...

Use of posterior predictive checks as an inferential tool for investigating individual heterogeneity in animal population vital rates

PubMed Central

Chambert, Thierry; Rotella, Jay J; Higgs, Megan D

2014-01-01

The investigation of individual heterogeneity in vital rates has recently received growing attention among population ecologists. Individual heterogeneity in wild animal populations has been accounted for and quantified by including individually varying effects in models for mark–recapture data, but the real need for underlying individual effects to account for observed levels of individual variation has recently been questioned by the work of Tuljapurkar et al. (Ecology Letters, 12, 93, 2009) on dynamic heterogeneity. Model-selection approaches based on information criteria or Bayes factors have been used to address this question. Here, we suggest that, in addition to model-selection, model-checking methods can provide additional important insights to tackle this issue, as they allow one to evaluate a model's misfit in terms of ecologically meaningful measures. Specifically, we propose the use of posterior predictive checks to explicitly assess discrepancies between a model and the data, and we explain how to incorporate model checking into the inferential process used to assess the practical implications of ignoring individual heterogeneity. Posterior predictive checking is a straightforward and flexible approach for performing model checks in a Bayesian framework that is based on comparisons of observed data to model-generated replications of the data, where parameter uncertainty is incorporated through use of the posterior distribution. If discrepancy measures are chosen carefully and are relevant to the scientific context, posterior predictive checks can provide important information allowing for more efficient model refinement. We illustrate this approach using analyses of vital rates with long-term mark–recapture data for Weddell seals and emphasize its utility for identifying shortfalls or successes of a model at representing a biological process or pattern of interest. We show how posterior predictive checks can be used to strengthen inferences in ecological studies. We demonstrate the application of this method on analyses dealing with the question of individual reproductive heterogeneity in a population of Antarctic pinnipeds. PMID:24834335

Nonlinear dynamics in ecosystem response to climatic change: Case studies and policy implications

USGS Publications Warehouse

Burkett, Virginia R.; Wilcox, Douglas A.; Stottlemyer, Robert; Barrow, Wylie; Fagre, Dan; Baron, Jill S.; Price, Jeff; Nielsen, Jennifer L.; Allen, Craig D.; Peterson, David L.; Ruggerone, Greg; Doyle, Thomas

2005-01-01

Many biological, hydrological, and geological processes are interactively linked in ecosystems. These ecological phenomena normally vary within bounded ranges, but rapid, nonlinear changes to markedly different conditions can be triggered by even small differences if threshold values are exceeded. Intrinsic and extrinsic ecological thresholds can lead to effects that cascade among systems, precluding accurate modeling and prediction of system response to climate change. Ten case studies from North America illustrate how changes in climate can lead to rapid, threshold-type responses within ecological communities; the case studies also highlight the role of human activities that alter the rate or direction of system response to climate change. Understanding and anticipating nonlinear dynamics are important aspects of adaptation planning since responses of biological resources to changes in the physical climate system are not necessarily proportional and sometimes, as in the case of complex ecological systems, inherently nonlinear.

Study on Ecological Risk Assessment of Guangxi Coastal Zone Based on 3s Technology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhong, Z.; Luo, H.; Ling, Z. Y.; Huang, Y.; Ning, W. Y.; Tang, Y. B.; Shao, G. Z.

2018-05-01

This paper takes Guangxi coastal zone as the study area, following the standards of land use type, divides the coastal zone of ecological landscape into seven kinds of natural wetland landscape types such as woodland, farmland, grassland, water, urban land and wetlands. Using TM data of 2000-2015 such 15 years, with the CART decision tree algorithm, for analysis the characteristic of types of landscape's remote sensing image and build decision tree rules of landscape classification to extract information classification. Analyzing of the evolution process of the landscape pattern in Guangxi coastal zone in nearly 15 years, we may understand the distribution characteristics and change rules. Combined with the natural disaster data, we use of landscape index and the related risk interference degree and construct ecological risk evaluation model in Guangxi coastal zone for ecological risk assessment results of Guangxi coastal zone.

The ecological origins of snakes as revealed by skull evolution.

PubMed

Da Silva, Filipe O; Fabre, Anne-Claire; Savriama, Yoland; Ollonen, Joni; Mahlow, Kristin; Herrel, Anthony; Müller, Johannes; Di-Poï, Nicolas

2018-01-25

The ecological origin of snakes remains amongst the most controversial topics in evolution, with three competing hypotheses: fossorial; marine; or terrestrial. Here we use a geometric morphometric approach integrating ecological, phylogenetic, paleontological, and developmental data for building models of skull shape and size evolution and developmental rate changes in squamates. Our large-scale data reveal that whereas the most recent common ancestor of crown snakes had a small skull with a shape undeniably adapted for fossoriality, all snakes plus their sister group derive from a surface-terrestrial form with non-fossorial behavior, thus redirecting the debate toward an underexplored evolutionary scenario. Our comprehensive heterochrony analyses further indicate that snakes later evolved novel craniofacial specializations through global acceleration of skull development. These results highlight the importance of the interplay between natural selection and developmental processes in snake origin and diversification, leading first to invasion of a new habitat and then to subsequent ecological radiations.

Community-level consequences of cannibalism.

PubMed

Ohlberger, Jan; Langangen, Oystein; Stenseth, Nils C; Vøllestad, L Asbjørn

2012-12-01

Ecological interactions determine the structure and dynamics of communities and their responses to the environment. Understanding the community-level effects of ecological interactions, such as intra- and interspecifc competition, predation, and cannibalism, is therefore central to ecological theory and ecosystem management. Here, we investigate the community-level consequences of cannibalism in populations with density-dependent maturation and reproduction. We model a stage-structured consumer population with an ontogenetic diet shift to analyze how cannibalism alters the conditions for the invasion and persistence of stage-specific predators and competitors. Our results demonstrate that cannibalistic interactions can facilitate coexistence with other species at both trophic levels. This effect of cannibalism critically depends on the food dependence of the demographic processes. The underlying mechanism is a cannibalism-induced shift in the biomass distribution between the consumer life stages. These findings suggest that cannibalism may alter the structure of ecological communities through its effects on species coexistence.

The predictability of a lake phytoplankton community, over time-scales of hours to years.

PubMed

Thomas, Mridul K; Fontana, Simone; Reyes, Marta; Kehoe, Michael; Pomati, Francesco

2018-05-01

Forecasting changes to ecological communities is one of the central challenges in ecology. However, nonlinear dependencies, biotic interactions and data limitations have limited our ability to assess how predictable communities are. Here, we used a machine learning approach and environmental monitoring data (biological, physical and chemical) to assess the predictability of phytoplankton cell density in one lake across an unprecedented range of time-scales. Communities were highly predictable over hours to months: model R 2 decreased from 0.89 at 4 hours to 0.74 at 1 month, and in a long-term dataset lacking fine spatial resolution, from 0.46 at 1 month to 0.32 at 10 years. When cyanobacterial and eukaryotic algal cell densities were examined separately, model-inferred environmental growth dependencies matched laboratory studies, and suggested novel trade-offs governing their competition. High-frequency monitoring and machine learning can set prediction targets for process-based models and help elucidate the mechanisms underlying ecological dynamics. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Solving problems in social-ecological systems: definition, practice and barriers of transdisciplinary research.

PubMed

Angelstam, Per; Andersson, Kjell; Annerstedt, Matilda; Axelsson, Robert; Elbakidze, Marine; Garrido, Pablo; Grahn, Patrik; Jönsson, K Ingemar; Pedersen, Simen; Schlyter, Peter; Skärbäck, Erik; Smith, Mike; Stjernquist, Ingrid

2013-03-01

Translating policies about sustainable development as a social process and sustainability outcomes into the real world of social-ecological systems involves several challenges. Hence, research policies advocate improved innovative problem-solving capacity. One approach is transdisciplinary research that integrates research disciplines, as well as researchers and practitioners. Drawing upon 14 experiences of problem-solving, we used group modeling to map perceived barriers and bridges for researchers' and practitioners' joint knowledge production and learning towards transdisciplinary research. The analysis indicated that the transdisciplinary research process is influenced by (1) the amount of traditional disciplinary formal and informal control, (2) adaptation of project applications to fill the transdisciplinary research agenda, (3) stakeholder participation, and (4) functional team building/development based on self-reflection and experienced leadership. Focusing on implementation of green infrastructure policy as a common denominator for the delivery of ecosystem services and human well-being, we discuss how to diagnose social-ecological systems, and use knowledge production and collaborative learning as treatments.

Building a stakeholder's vision of an offshore wind-farm project: A group modeling approach.

PubMed

Château, Pierre-Alexandre; Chang, Yang-Chi; Chen, Hsin; Ko, Tsung-Ting

2012-03-15

This paper describes a Group Model Building (GMB) initiative that was designed to discuss the various potential effects that an offshore wind-farm may have on its local ecology and socioeconomic development. The representatives of various organizations in the study area, Lu-Kang, Taiwan, have held several meetings, and structured debates have been organized to promote the emergence of a consensual view on the main issues and their implications. A System Dynamics (SD) model has been built and corrected iteratively with the participants through the GMB process. The diverse interests within the group led the process toward the design of multifunctional wind-farms with different modalities. The scenario analyses, using the SD model under various policies, including no wind-farm policy, objectively articulates the vision of the local stakeholders. The results of the SD simulations show that the multifunctional wind-farms may have superior economic effects and the larger wind-farms with bird corridors could reduce ecological impact. However, the participants of the modeling process did not appreciate any type of offshore wind-farm development when considering all of the identified key factors of social acceptance. The insight gained from the study can provide valuable information to actualize feasible strategies for the green energy technique to meet local expectations. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Predicting Resilience in Sexually Abused Adolescents

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Williams, Javonda; Nelson-Gardell, Debra

2012-01-01

This research examined factors that predicted resilience in sexually abused adolescents. Using Bronfenbrenner's Process-Person-Context-Time (PPCT) ecological model, this study considered the proximal and distal factors that would contribute to adolescents' reactions to sexual victimization. This correlational study used hierarchical regression…

Bridging Food Webs, Ecosystem Metabolism, and Biogeochemistry Using Ecological Stoichiometry Theory.

PubMed

Welti, Nina; Striebel, Maren; Ulseth, Amber J; Cross, Wyatt F; DeVilbiss, Stephen; Glibert, Patricia M; Guo, Laodong; Hirst, Andrew G; Hood, Jim; Kominoski, John S; MacNeill, Keeley L; Mehring, Andrew S; Welter, Jill R; Hillebrand, Helmut

2017-01-01

Although aquatic ecologists and biogeochemists are well aware of the crucial importance of ecosystem functions, i.e., how biota drive biogeochemical processes and vice-versa, linking these fields in conceptual models is still uncommon. Attempts to explain the variability in elemental cycling consequently miss an important biological component and thereby impede a comprehensive understanding of the underlying processes governing energy and matter flow and transformation. The fate of multiple chemical elements in ecosystems is strongly linked by biotic demand and uptake; thus, considering elemental stoichiometry is important for both biogeochemical and ecological research. Nonetheless, assessments of ecological stoichiometry (ES) often focus on the elemental content of biota rather than taking a more holistic view by examining both elemental pools and fluxes (e.g., organismal stoichiometry and ecosystem process rates). ES theory holds the promise to be a unifying concept to link across hierarchical scales of patterns and processes in ecology, but this has not been fully achieved. Therefore, we propose connecting the expertise of aquatic ecologists and biogeochemists with ES theory as a common currency to connect food webs, ecosystem metabolism, and biogeochemistry, as they are inherently concatenated by the transfer of carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorous through biotic and abiotic nutrient transformation and fluxes. Several new studies exist that demonstrate the connections between food web ecology, biogeochemistry, and ecosystem metabolism. In addition to a general introduction into the topic, this paper presents examples of how these fields can be combined with a focus on ES. In this review, a series of concepts have guided the discussion: (1) changing biogeochemistry affects trophic interactions and ecosystem processes by altering the elemental ratios of key species and assemblages; (2) changing trophic dynamics influences the transformation and fluxes of matter across environmental boundaries; (3) changing ecosystem metabolism will alter the chemical diversity of the non-living environment. Finally, we propose that using ES to link nutrient cycling, trophic dynamics, and ecosystem metabolism would allow for a more holistic understanding of ecosystem functions in a changing environment.

Constraining Centennial-Scale Ecosystem-Climate Interactions with a Pre-colonial Forest Reconstruction across the Upper Midwest and Northeastern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matthes, J. H.; Dietze, M.; Fox, A. M.; Goring, S. J.; McLachlan, J. S.; Moore, D. J.; Poulter, B.; Quaife, T. L.; Schaefer, K. M.; Steinkamp, J.; Williams, J. W.

2014-12-01

Interactions between ecological systems and the atmosphere are the result of dynamic processes with system memories that persist from seconds to centuries. Adequately capturing long-term biosphere-atmosphere exchange within earth system models (ESMs) requires an accurate representation of changes in plant functional types (PFTs) through time and space, particularly at timescales associated with ecological succession. However, most model parameterization and development has occurred using datasets than span less than a decade. We tested the ability of ESMs to capture the ecological dynamics observed in paleoecological and historical data spanning the last millennium. Focusing on an area from the Upper Midwest to New England, we examined differences in the magnitude and spatial pattern of PFT distributions and ecotones between historic datasets and the CMIP5 inter-comparison project's large-scale ESMs. We then conducted a 1000-year model inter-comparison using six state-of-the-art biosphere models at sites that bridged regional temperature and precipitation gradients. The distribution of ecosystem characteristics in modeled climate space reveals widely disparate relationships between modeled climate and vegetation that led to large differences in long-term biosphere-atmosphere fluxes for this region. Model simulations revealed that both the interaction between climate and vegetation and the representation of ecosystem dynamics within models were important controls on biosphere-atmosphere exchange.

Statistical physics of community ecology: a cavity solution to MacArthur’s consumer resource model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Advani, Madhu; Bunin, Guy; Mehta, Pankaj

2018-03-01

A central question in ecology is to understand the ecological processes that shape community structure. Niche-based theories have emphasized the important role played by competition for maintaining species diversity. Many of these insights have been derived using MacArthur’s consumer resource model (MCRM) or its generalizations. Most theoretical work on the MCRM has focused on small ecosystems with a few species and resources. However theoretical insights derived from small ecosystems many not scale up to large ecosystems with many resources and species because large systems with many interacting components often display new emergent behaviors that cannot be understood or deduced from analyzing smaller systems. To address these shortcomings, we develop a statistical physics inspired cavity method to analyze MCRM when both the number of species and the number of resources is large. Unlike previous work in this limit, our theory addresses resource dynamics and resource depletion and demonstrates that species generically and consistently perturb their environments and significantly modify available ecological niches. We show how our cavity approach naturally generalizes niche theory to large ecosystems by accounting for the effect of collective phenomena on species invasion and ecological stability. Our theory suggests that such phenomena are a generic feature of large, natural ecosystems and must be taken into account when analyzing and interpreting community structure. It also highlights the important role that statistical-physics inspired approaches can play in furthering our understanding of ecology.

Comparative analysis of marine ecosystems: workshop on predator-prey interactions.

PubMed

Bailey, Kevin M; Ciannelli, Lorenzo; Hunsicker, Mary; Rindorf, Anna; Neuenfeldt, Stefan; Möllmann, Christian; Guichard, Frederic; Huse, Geir

2010-10-23

Climate and human influences on marine ecosystems are largely manifested by changes in predator-prey interactions. It follows that ecosystem-based management of the world's oceans requires a better understanding of food web relationships. An international workshop on predator-prey interactions in marine ecosystems was held at the Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR, USA on 16-18 March 2010. The meeting brought together scientists from diverse fields of expertise including theoretical ecology, animal behaviour, fish and seabird ecology, statistics, fisheries science and ecosystem modelling. The goals of the workshop were to critically examine the methods of scaling-up predator-prey interactions from local observations to systems, the role of shifting ecological processes with scale changes, and the complexity and organizational structure in trophic interactions.

Water: the bloodstream of the biosphere.

PubMed

Ripl, Wilhelm

2003-12-29

Water, the bloodstream of the biosphere, determines the sustainability of living systems. The essential role of water is expanded in a conceptual model of energy dissipation, based on the water balance of whole landscapes. In this model, the underlying role of water phase changes--and their energy-dissipative properties--in the function and the self-organized development of natural systems is explicitly recognized. The energy-dissipating processes regulate the ecological dynamics within the Earth's biosphere, in such a way that the development of natural systems is never allowed to proceed in an undirected or random way. A fundamental characteristic of self-organized development in natural systems is the increasing role of cyclic processes while loss processes are correspondingly reduced. This gives a coincidental increase in system efficiency, which is the basis of growing stability and sustainability. Growing sustainability can be seen as an increase of ecological efficiency, which is applicable at all levels up to whole landscapes. Criteria for necessary changes in society and for the design of the measures that are necessary to restore sustainable landscapes and waters are derived.

Water: the bloodstream of the biosphere.

PubMed Central

Ripl, Wilhelm

2003-01-01

Water, the bloodstream of the biosphere, determines the sustainability of living systems. The essential role of water is expanded in a conceptual model of energy dissipation, based on the water balance of whole landscapes. In this model, the underlying role of water phase changes--and their energy-dissipative properties--in the function and the self-organized development of natural systems is explicitly recognized. The energy-dissipating processes regulate the ecological dynamics within the Earth's biosphere, in such a way that the development of natural systems is never allowed to proceed in an undirected or random way. A fundamental characteristic of self-organized development in natural systems is the increasing role of cyclic processes while loss processes are correspondingly reduced. This gives a coincidental increase in system efficiency, which is the basis of growing stability and sustainability. Growing sustainability can be seen as an increase of ecological efficiency, which is applicable at all levels up to whole landscapes. Criteria for necessary changes in society and for the design of the measures that are necessary to restore sustainable landscapes and waters are derived. PMID:14728789

The Red Lotus Health Promotion Model: a new model for holistic, ecological, salutogenic health promotion practice.

PubMed

Gregg, Jane; O'Hara, Lily

2007-04-01

There is a need for a system of values and principles consistent with modern health promotion that enables practitioners to use these values and principles to understand health and in their needs assessment, planning, implementation and evaluation practice. Grounded theory, document analysis and the authors' own practice experience were used to systematically collect and analyse data from key health promotion literature and to develop the Red Lotus Health Promotion Model. The Red Lotus Health Promotion Model is a new model for holistic, ecological, salutogenic health promotion practice. It is distinct from other health promotion models in that it incorporates a system of values and principles that is applied across the phases of health promotion, including determining the health paradigm, needs assessment, planning, implementation and evaluation. The Red Lotus Health Promotion Model enables practitioners to proactively and purposefully put into action a connected system of values and principles across the phases of a health promotion process.

Exploring sensitivity of a multistate occupancy model to inform management decisions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Green, A.W.; Bailey, L.L.; Nichols, J.D.

2011-01-01

Dynamic occupancy models are often used to investigate questions regarding the processes that influence patch occupancy and are prominent in the fields of population and community ecology and conservation biology. Recently, multistate occupancy models have been developed to investigate dynamic systems involving more than one occupied state, including reproductive states, relative abundance states and joint habitat-occupancy states. Here we investigate the sensitivities of the equilibrium-state distribution of multistate occupancy models to changes in transition rates. We develop equilibrium occupancy expressions and their associated sensitivity metrics for dynamic multistate occupancy models. To illustrate our approach, we use two examples that represent common multistate occupancy systems. The first example involves a three-state dynamic model involving occupied states with and without successful reproduction (California spotted owl Strix occidentalis occidentalis), and the second involves a novel way of using a multistate occupancy approach to accommodate second-order Markov processes (wood frog Lithobates sylvatica breeding and metamorphosis). In many ways, multistate sensitivity metrics behave in similar ways as standard occupancy sensitivities. When equilibrium occupancy rates are low, sensitivity to parameters related to colonisation is high, while sensitivity to persistence parameters is greater when equilibrium occupancy rates are high. Sensitivities can also provide guidance for managers when estimates of transition probabilities are not available. Synthesis and applications. Multistate models provide practitioners a flexible framework to define multiple, distinct occupied states and the ability to choose which state, or combination of states, is most relevant to questions and decisions about their own systems. In addition to standard multistate occupancy models, we provide an example of how a second-order Markov process can be modified to fit a multistate framework. Assuming the system is near equilibrium, our sensitivity analyses illustrate how to investigate the sensitivity of the system-specific equilibrium state(s) to changes in transition rates. Because management will typically act on these transition rates, sensitivity analyses can provide valuable information about the potential influence of different actions and when it may be prudent to shift the focus of management among the various transition rates. ?? 2011 The Authors. Journal of Applied Ecology ?? 2011 British Ecological Society.

Anthropological contributions to historical ecology: 50 questions, infinite prospects

PubMed Central

McKechnie, Iain; Ekblom, Anneli; Szabó, Péter; Lane, Paul J.; McAlvay, Alex C.; Boles, Oliver J.; Walshaw, Sarah; Petek, Nik; Gibbons, Kevin S.; Quintana Morales, Erendira; Anderson, Eugene N.; Ibragimow, Aleksandra; Podruczny, Grzegorz; Vamosi, Jana C.; Marks-Block, Tony; LeCompte, Joyce K.; Awâsis, Sākihitowin; Nabess, Carly; Sinclair, Paul; Crumley, Carole L.

2017-01-01

This paper presents the results of a consensus-driven process identifying 50 priority research questions for historical ecology obtained through crowdsourcing, literature reviews, and in-person workshopping. A deliberative approach was designed to maximize discussion and debate with defined outcomes. Two in-person workshops (in Sweden and Canada) over the course of two years and online discussions were peer facilitated to define specific key questions for historical ecology from anthropological and archaeological perspectives. The aim of this research is to showcase the variety of questions that reflect the broad scope for historical-ecological research trajectories across scientific disciplines. Historical ecology encompasses research concerned with decadal, centennial, and millennial human-environmental interactions, and the consequences that those relationships have in the formation of contemporary landscapes. Six interrelated themes arose from our consensus-building workshop model: (1) climate and environmental change and variability; (2) multi-scalar, multi-disciplinary; (3) biodiversity and community ecology; (4) resource and environmental management and governance; (5) methods and applications; and (6) communication and policy. The 50 questions represented by these themes highlight meaningful trends in historical ecology that distill the field down to three explicit findings. First, historical ecology is fundamentally an applied research program. Second, this program seeks to understand long-term human-environment interactions with a focus on avoiding, mitigating, and reversing adverse ecological effects. Third, historical ecology is part of convergent trends toward transdisciplinary research science, which erodes scientific boundaries between the cultural and natural. PMID:28235093

Anthropological contributions to historical ecology: 50 questions, infinite prospects.

PubMed

Armstrong, Chelsey Geralda; Shoemaker, Anna C; McKechnie, Iain; Ekblom, Anneli; Szabó, Péter; Lane, Paul J; McAlvay, Alex C; Boles, Oliver J; Walshaw, Sarah; Petek, Nik; Gibbons, Kevin S; Quintana Morales, Erendira; Anderson, Eugene N; Ibragimow, Aleksandra; Podruczny, Grzegorz; Vamosi, Jana C; Marks-Block, Tony; LeCompte, Joyce K; Awâsis, Sākihitowin; Nabess, Carly; Sinclair, Paul; Crumley, Carole L

2017-01-01

This paper presents the results of a consensus-driven process identifying 50 priority research questions for historical ecology obtained through crowdsourcing, literature reviews, and in-person workshopping. A deliberative approach was designed to maximize discussion and debate with defined outcomes. Two in-person workshops (in Sweden and Canada) over the course of two years and online discussions were peer facilitated to define specific key questions for historical ecology from anthropological and archaeological perspectives. The aim of this research is to showcase the variety of questions that reflect the broad scope for historical-ecological research trajectories across scientific disciplines. Historical ecology encompasses research concerned with decadal, centennial, and millennial human-environmental interactions, and the consequences that those relationships have in the formation of contemporary landscapes. Six interrelated themes arose from our consensus-building workshop model: (1) climate and environmental change and variability; (2) multi-scalar, multi-disciplinary; (3) biodiversity and community ecology; (4) resource and environmental management and governance; (5) methods and applications; and (6) communication and policy. The 50 questions represented by these themes highlight meaningful trends in historical ecology that distill the field down to three explicit findings. First, historical ecology is fundamentally an applied research program. Second, this program seeks to understand long-term human-environment interactions with a focus on avoiding, mitigating, and reversing adverse ecological effects. Third, historical ecology is part of convergent trends toward transdisciplinary research science, which erodes scientific boundaries between the cultural and natural.

Ecological site-based assessments of wind and water erosion: informing accelerated soil erosion management in rangelands

USGS Publications Warehouse

Webb, Nicholas P.; Herrick, Jeffrey E.; Duniway, Michael C.

2014-01-01

Accelerated soil erosion occurs when anthropogenic processes modify soil, vegetation or climatic conditions causing erosion rates at a location to exceed their natural variability. Identifying where and when accelerated erosion occurs is a critical first step toward its effective management. Here we explore how erosion assessments structured in the context of ecological sites (a land classification based on soils, landscape setting and ecological potential) and their vegetation states (plant assemblages that may change due to management) can inform systems for reducing accelerated soil erosion in rangelands. We evaluated aeolian horizontal sediment flux and fluvial sediment erosion rates for five ecological sites in southern New Mexico, USA, using monitoring data and rangeland-specific wind and water erosion models. Across the ecological sites, plots in shrub-encroached and shrub-dominated vegetation states were consistently susceptible to aeolian sediment flux and fluvial sediment erosion. Both processes were found to be highly variable for grassland and grass-succulent states across the ecological sites at the plot scale (0.25 Ha). We identify vegetation thresholds that define cover levels below which rapid (exponential) increases in aeolian sediment flux and fluvial sediment erosion occur across the ecological sites and vegetation states. Aeolian sediment flux and fluvial erosion in the study area can be effectively controlled when bare ground cover is 100 cm in length is less than ~35%. Land use and management activities that alter cover levels such that they cross thresholds, and/or drive vegetation state changes, may increase the susceptibility of areas to erosion. Land use impacts that are constrained within the range of natural variability should not result in accelerated soil erosion. Evaluating land condition against the erosion thresholds identified here will enable identification of areas susceptible to accelerated soil erosion and the development of practical management solutions.

Quantifying Ecological Memory of Plant and Ecosystem Processes in Variable Environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ogle, K.; Barron-Gafford, G. A.; Bentley, L.; Cable, J.; Lucas, R.; Huxman, T. E.; Loik, M. E.; Smith, S. D.; Tissue, D.

2010-12-01

Precipitation, soil water, and other factors affect plant and ecosystem processes at multiple time scales. A common assumption is that water availability at a given time directly affects processes at that time. Recent work, especially in pulse-driven, semiarid systems, shows that antecedent water availability, averaged over several days to a couple weeks, can be just as or more important than current water status. Precipitation patterns of previous seasons or past years can also impact plant and ecosystem functioning in many systems. However, we lack an analytical framework for quantifying the importance of and time-scale over which past conditions affect current processes. This study explores the ecological memory of a variety of plant and ecosystem processes. We use memory as a metaphor to describe the time-scale over which antecedent conditions affect the current process. Existing approaches for incorporating antecedent effects arbitrarily select the antecedent integration period (e.g., the past 2 weeks) and the relative importance of past conditions (e.g., assign equal or linearly decreasing weights to past events). In contrast, we utilize a hierarchical Bayesian approach to integrate field data with process-based models, yielding posterior distributions for model parameters, including the duration of the ecological memory (integration period) and the relative importance of past events (weights) to this memory. We apply our approach to data spanning diverse temporal scales and four semiarid sites in the western US: leaf-level stomatal conductance (gs, sub-hourly scale), soil respiration (Rs, hourly to daily scale), and net primary productivity (NPP) and tree-ring widths (annual scale). For gs, antecedent factors (daily rainfall and temperature, hourly vapor pressure deficit) and current soil water explained up to 72% of the variation in gs in the Chihuahuan Desert, with a memory of 10 hours for a grass and 4 days for a shrub. Antecedent factors (past soil water, temperature, photosynthesis rates) explained 73-80% of the variation in sub-daily and daily Rs. Rs beneath shrubs had a moisture and temperature memory of a few weeks, while Rs in open space and beneath grasses had a memory of 6 weeks. For pinyon pine ring widths, the current and previous year accounted for 85% of the precipitation memory; for the current year, precipitation received between February and June was most important. A similar result emerged for NPP in the short grass steppe. In both sites, tree growth and NPP had a memory of 3 years such that precipitation received >3 years ago had little influence. Understanding ecosystem dynamics requires knowledge of the temporal scales over which environmental factors influence ecological processes, and our approach to quantifying ecological memory provides a means to identify underlying mechanisms.

Fish and fire: Post-wildfire sediment dynamics and implications for the viability of trout populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murphy, B. P.; Czuba, J. A.; Belmont, P.; Budy, P.; Finch, C.

2017-12-01

Episodic events in steep landscapes, such as wildfire and mass wasting, contribute large pulses of sediment to rivers and can significantly alter the quality and connectivity of fish habitat. Understanding where these sediment inputs occur, how they are transported and processed through the watershed, and their geomorphic effect on the river network is critical to predicting the impact on ecological aquatic communities. The Tushar Mountains of southern Utah experienced a severe wildfire in 2010, resulting in numerous debris flows and the extirpation of trout populations. Following many years of habitat and ecological monitoring in the field, we have developed a modeling framework that links post-wildfire debris flows, fluvial sediment routing, and population ecology in order to evaluate the impact and response of trout to wildfire. First, using the Tushar topographic and wildfire parameters, as well as stochastic precipitation generation, we predict the post-wildfire debris flow probabilities and volumes of mainstem tributaries using the Cannon et al. [2010] model. This produces episodic hillslope sediment inputs, which are delivered to a fluvial sediment, river-network routing model (modified from Czuba et al. [2017]). In this updated model, sediment transport dynamics are driven by time-varying discharge associated with the stochastic precipitation generation, include multiple grain sizes (including gravel), use mixed-size transport equations (Wilcock & Crowe [2003]), and incorporate channel slope adjustments with aggradation and degradation. Finally, with the spatially explicit adjustments in channel bed elevation and grain size, we utilize a new population viability analysis (PVA) model to predict the impact and recovery of fish populations in response to these changes in habitat. Our model provides a generalizable framework for linking physical and ecological models and for evaluating the extirpation risk of isolated fish populations throughout the Intermountain West to the increasing threat of wildfire.

Linking multi-temporal satellite imagery to coastal wetland dynamics and bird distribution

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pickens, Bradley A.; King, Sammy L.

2014-01-01

Ecosystems are characterized by dynamic ecological processes, such as flooding and fires, but spatial models are often limited to a single measurement in time. The characterization of direct, fine-scale processes affecting animals is potentially valuable for management applications, but these are difficult to quantify over broad extents. Direct predictors are also expected to improve transferability of models beyond the area of study. Here, we investigated the ability of non-static and multi-temporal habitat characteristics to predict marsh bird distributions, while testing model generality and transferability between two coastal habitats. Distribution models were developed for king rail (Rallus elegans), common gallinule (Gallinula galeata), least bittern (Ixobrychus exilis), and purple gallinule (Porphyrio martinica) in fresh and intermediate marsh types in the northern Gulf Coast of Louisiana and Texas, USA. For model development, repeated point count surveys of marsh birds were conducted from 2009 to 2011. Landsat satellite imagery was used to quantify both annual conditions and cumulative, multi-temporal habitat characteristics. We used multivariate adaptive regression splines to quantify bird-habitat relationships for fresh, intermediate, and combined marsh habitats. Multi-temporal habitat characteristics ranked as more important than single-date characteristics, as temporary water was most influential in six of eight models. Predictive power was greater for marsh type-specific models compared to general models and model transferability was poor. Birds in fresh marsh selected for annual habitat characterizations, while birds in intermediate marsh selected for cumulative wetness and heterogeneity. Our findings emphasize that dynamic ecological processes can affect species distribution and species-habitat relationships may differ with dominant landscape characteristics.

Evolutionary fields can explain patterns of high-dimensional complexity in ecology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilsenach, James; Landi, Pietro; Hui, Cang

2017-04-01

One of the properties that make ecological systems so unique is the range of complex behavioral patterns that can be exhibited by even the simplest communities with only a few species. Much of this complexity is commonly attributed to stochastic factors that have very high-degrees of freedom. Orthodox study of the evolution of these simple networks has generally been limited in its ability to explain complexity, since it restricts evolutionary adaptation to an inertia-free process with few degrees of freedom in which only gradual, moderately complex behaviors are possible. We propose a model inspired by particle-mediated field phenomena in classical physics in combination with fundamental concepts in adaptation, which suggests that small but high-dimensional chaotic dynamics near to the adaptive trait optimum could help explain complex properties shared by most ecological datasets, such as aperiodicity and pink, fractal noise spectra. By examining a simple predator-prey model and appealing to real ecological data, we show that this type of complexity could be easily confused for or confounded by stochasticity, especially when spurred on or amplified by stochastic factors that share variational and spectral properties with the underlying dynamics.

Energetic and ecological constraints on population density of reef fishes.

PubMed

Barneche, D R; Kulbicki, M; Floeter, S R; Friedlander, A M; Allen, A P

2016-01-27

Population ecology has classically focused on pairwise species interactions, hindering the description of general patterns and processes of population abundance at large spatial scales. Here we use the metabolic theory of ecology as a framework to formulate and test a model that yields predictions linking population density to the physiological constraints of body size and temperature on individual metabolism, and the ecological constraints of trophic structure and species richness on energy partitioning among species. Our model was tested by applying Bayesian quantile regression to a comprehensive reef-fish community database, from which we extracted density data for 5609 populations spread across 49 sites around the world. Our results indicate that population density declines markedly with increases in community species richness and that, after accounting for richness, energetic constraints are manifested most strongly for the most abundant species, which generally are of small body size and occupy lower trophic groups. Overall, our findings suggest that, at the global scale, factors associated with community species richness are the major drivers of variation in population density. Given that populations of species-rich tropical systems exhibit markedly lower maximum densities, they may be particularly susceptible to stochastic extinction. © 2016 The Author(s).

Energetic and ecological constraints on population density of reef fishes

PubMed Central

Barneche, D. R.; Kulbicki, M.; Floeter, S. R.; Friedlander, A. M.; Allen, A. P.

2016-01-01

Population ecology has classically focused on pairwise species interactions, hindering the description of general patterns and processes of population abundance at large spatial scales. Here we use the metabolic theory of ecology as a framework to formulate and test a model that yields predictions linking population density to the physiological constraints of body size and temperature on individual metabolism, and the ecological constraints of trophic structure and species richness on energy partitioning among species. Our model was tested by applying Bayesian quantile regression to a comprehensive reef-fish community database, from which we extracted density data for 5609 populations spread across 49 sites around the world. Our results indicate that population density declines markedly with increases in community species richness and that, after accounting for richness, energetic constraints are manifested most strongly for the most abundant species, which generally are of small body size and occupy lower trophic groups. Overall, our findings suggest that, at the global scale, factors associated with community species richness are the major drivers of variation in population density. Given that populations of species-rich tropical systems exhibit markedly lower maximum densities, they may be particularly susceptible to stochastic extinction. PMID:26791611

Cognitive Modeling for Agent-Based Simulation of Child Maltreatment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Xiaolin; Puddy, Richard

This paper extends previous work to develop cognitive modeling for agent-based simulation of child maltreatment (CM). The developed model is inspired from parental efficacy, parenting stress, and the theory of planned behavior. It provides an explanatory, process-oriented model of CM and incorporates causality relationship and feedback loops from different factors in the social ecology in order for simulating the dynamics of CM. We describe the model and present simulation results to demonstrate the features of this model.

Disentangling sampling and ecological explanations underlying species-area relationships

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cam, E.; Nichols, J.D.; Hines, J.E.; Sauer, J.R.; Alpizar-Jara, R.; Flather, C.H.

2002-01-01

We used a probabilistic approach to address the influence of sampling artifacts on the form of species-area relationships (SARs). We developed a model in which the increase in observed species richness is a function of sampling effort exclusively. We assumed that effort depends on area sampled, and we generated species-area curves under that model. These curves can be realistic looking. We then generated SARs from avian data, comparing SARs based on counts with those based on richness estimates. We used an approach to estimation of species richness that accounts for species detection probability and, hence, for variation in sampling effort. The slopes of SARs based on counts are steeper than those of curves based on estimates of richness, indicating that the former partly reflect failure to account for species detection probability. SARs based on estimates reflect ecological processes exclusively, not sampling processes. This approach permits investigation of ecologically relevant hypotheses. The slope of SARs is not influenced by the slope of the relationship between habitat diversity and area. In situations in which not all of the species are detected during sampling sessions, approaches to estimation of species richness integrating species detection probability should be used to investigate the rate of increase in species richness with area.

Ecological effects on streams from forest fertilization; literature review and conceptual framework for future study in the western Cascades

USGS Publications Warehouse

Anderson, Chauncey W.

2002-03-19

Studies of the responses of stream biota to fertilization have been rare and have targeted either immediate, toxicity-based responses or used methods insensitive to ongoing ecological processes. This report reviews water-quality studies following forest fertilizations, emphasizing Cascade streams in the Pacific Northwest and documented biological responses in those streams. A conceptual model predicting potential ecological response to fertilization, which includes effects on algal growth and primary production, is presented. In this model, applied fertilizer nitrogen reaching streams is mostly exported during winter. However, some nitrogen retained in soils or stream and riparian areas may become available to aquatic biota during spring and summer. Biological responses may be minimal in small streams nearest to application because of light limitation, but may be elevated downstream where light is sufficient to allow algal growth. Ultimately, algal response could be greatest in downstream reaches, although ambient nutrient concentrations remain low due to uptake and benthic nutrient recycling. Ground-water flow paths and hyporheic processing could be critical in determining the fate of applied nitrogen. A framework is provided for testing this response in the Little River watershed, a tributary to the North Umpqua River, Oregon, at basic and intensive levels of investigation.

Integrating human health and ecological concerns in risk assessments.

PubMed

Cirone, P A; Bruce Duncan, P

2000-11-03

The interconnections between ecosystems, human health and welfare have been increasingly recognized by the US government, academia, and the public. This paper continues this theme by addressing the use of risk assessment to integrate people into a single assessment. In a broad overview of the risk assessment process we stress the need to build a conceptual model of the whole system including multiple species (humans and other ecological entities), stressors, and cumulative effects. We also propose converging landscape ecology and evaluation of ecosystem services with risk assessment to address these cumulative responses. We first look at how this integration can occur within the problem formulation step in risk assessment where the system is defined, a conceptual model created, a subset of components and functions selected, and the analytical framework decided in a context that includes the management decisions. A variety of examples of problem formulations (salmon, wild insects, hyporheic ecosystems, ultraviolet (UV) radiation, nitrogen fertilization, toxic chemicals, and oil spills) are presented to illustrate how treating humans as components of the landscape can add value to risk assessments. We conclude that the risk assessment process should help address the urgent needs of society in proportion to importance, to provide a format to communicate knowledge and understanding, and to inform policy and management decisions.

Multiple hypotheses testing of fish incidence patterns in an urbanized ecosystem

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chizinski, C.J.; Higgins, C.L.; Shavlik, C.E.; Pope, K.L.

2006-01-01

Ecological and evolutionary theories have focused traditionally on natural processes with little attempt to incorporate anthropogenic influences despite the fact that humans are such an integral part of virtually all ecosystems. A series of alternate models that incorporated anthropogenic factors and traditional ecological mechanisms of invasion to account for fish incidence patterns in urban lakes was tested. The models were based on fish biology, human intervention, and habitat characteristics. However, the only models to account for empirical patterns were those that included fish invasiveness, which incorporated species-specific information about overall tolerance and fecundity. This suggests that species-specific characteristics are more important in general distributional patterns than human-mediated dispersal. Better information of illegal stocking activities is needed to improve human-mediated models, and more insight into basic life history of ubiquitous species is needed to truly understand underlying mechanisms of biotic homogenization. ?? Springer 2005.

Two ecological models of academic achievement among diverse students with and without disabilities in transition.

PubMed

Williams, Terrinieka T; McMahon, Susan D; Keys, Christopher B

2014-01-01

School experiences can have positive effects on student academic achievement, yet less is known about intermediary processes that contribute to these positive effects. We examined pathways between school experiences and academic achievement among 117 low-income urban students of color, many with disabilities, who transitioned to other schools following a school closure. Using structural equation modeling, we tested two ecological models that examined the relationships among self-reported school experiences, school support, academic self-efficacy, and school-reported academic achievement. The model in which the relationship between school experiences and academic achievement is mediated by both school support and academic self-efficacy, and that takes previous academic achievement into account, was an excellent fit with the data. The roles of contextual and individual factors as they relate to academic achievement, and the implications of these findings, are discussed.