Climate-driven regime shift of a temperate marine ecosystem.

PubMed

Wernberg, Thomas; Bennett, Scott; Babcock, Russell C; de Bettignies, Thibaut; Cure, Katherine; Depczynski, Martial; Dufois, Francois; Fromont, Jane; Fulton, Christopher J; Hovey, Renae K; Harvey, Euan S; Holmes, Thomas H; Kendrick, Gary A; Radford, Ben; Santana-Garcon, Julia; Saunders, Benjamin J; Smale, Dan A; Thomsen, Mads S; Tuckett, Chenae A; Tuya, Fernando; Vanderklift, Mathew A; Wilson, Shaun

2016-07-08

Ecosystem reconfigurations arising from climate-driven changes in species distributions are expected to have profound ecological, social, and economic implications. Here we reveal a rapid climate-driven regime shift of Australian temperate reef communities, which lost their defining kelp forests and became dominated by persistent seaweed turfs. After decades of ocean warming, extreme marine heat waves forced a 100-kilometer range contraction of extensive kelp forests and saw temperate species replaced by seaweeds, invertebrates, corals, and fishes characteristic of subtropical and tropical waters. This community-wide tropicalization fundamentally altered key ecological processes, suppressing the recovery of kelp forests. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Agricultural modifications of hydrological flows create ecological surprises.

PubMed

Gordon, Line J; Peterson, Garry D; Bennett, Elena M

2008-04-01

Agricultural expansion and intensification have altered the quantity and quality of global water flows. Research suggests that these changes have increased the risk of catastrophic ecosystem regime shifts. We identify and review evidence for agriculture-related regime shifts in three parts of the hydrological cycle: interactions between agriculture and aquatic systems, agriculture and soil, and agriculture and the atmosphere. We describe the processes that shape these regime shifts and the scales at which they operate. As global demands for agriculture and water continue to grow, it is increasingly urgent for ecologists to develop new ways of anticipating, analyzing and managing nonlinear changes across scales in human-dominated landscapes.

Transformative environmental governance

EPA Science Inventory

Transformative governance is an approach to environmental governance that has the capacity to respond to, manage, and trigger regime shifts in coupled social-ecological systems (SESs) at multiple scales. The goal of transformative governance is to actively shift degraded SESs to ...

Biological invasions, ecological resilience and adaptive governance

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chaffin, Brian C.; Garmestani, Ahjond S.; Angeler, David G.; Herrmann, Dustin L.; Stow, Craig A.; Nystrom, Magnus; Sendzimir, Jan; Hopton, Matthew E.; Kolasa, Jurek; Allen, Craig R.

2016-01-01

In a world of increasing interconnections in global trade as well as rapid change in climate and land cover, the accelerating introduction and spread of invasive species is a critical concern due to associated negative social and ecological impacts, both real and perceived. Much of the societal response to invasive species to date has been associated with negative economic consequences of invasions. This response has shaped a war-like approach to addressing invasions, one with an agenda of eradications and intense ecological restoration efforts towards prior or more desirable ecological regimes. This trajectory often ignores the concept of ecological resilience and associated approaches of resilience-based governance. We argue that the relationship between ecological resilience and invasive species has been understudied to the detriment of attempts to govern invasions, and that most management actions fail, primarily because they do not incorporate adaptive, learning-based approaches. Invasive species can decrease resilience by reducing the biodiversity that underpins ecological functions and processes, making ecosystems more prone to regime shifts. However, invasions do not always result in a shift to an alternative regime; invasions can also increase resilience by introducing novelty, replacing lost ecological functions or adding redundancy that strengthens already existing structures and processes in an ecosystem. This paper examines the potential impacts of species invasions on the resilience of ecosystems and suggests that resilience-based approaches can inform policy by linking the governance of biological invasions to the negotiation of tradeoffs between ecosystem services.

Biological invasions, ecological resilience and adaptive governance.

PubMed

Chaffin, Brian C; Garmestani, Ahjond S; Angeler, David G; Herrmann, Dustin L; Stow, Craig A; Nyström, Magnus; Sendzimir, Jan; Hopton, Matthew E; Kolasa, Jurek; Allen, Craig R

2016-12-01

In a world of increasing interconnections in global trade as well as rapid change in climate and land cover, the accelerating introduction and spread of invasive species is a critical concern due to associated negative social and ecological impacts, both real and perceived. Much of the societal response to invasive species to date has been associated with negative economic consequences of invasions. This response has shaped a war-like approach to addressing invasions, one with an agenda of eradications and intense ecological restoration efforts towards prior or more desirable ecological regimes. This trajectory often ignores the concept of ecological resilience and associated approaches of resilience-based governance. We argue that the relationship between ecological resilience and invasive species has been understudied to the detriment of attempts to govern invasions, and that most management actions fail, primarily because they do not incorporate adaptive, learning-based approaches. Invasive species can decrease resilience by reducing the biodiversity that underpins ecological functions and processes, making ecosystems more prone to regime shifts. However, invasions do not always result in a shift to an alternative regime; invasions can also increase resilience by introducing novelty, replacing lost ecological functions or adding redundancy that strengthens already existing structures and processes in an ecosystem. This paper examines the potential impacts of species invasions on the resilience of ecosystems and suggests that resilience-based approaches can inform policy by linking the governance of biological invasions to the negotiation of tradeoffs between ecosystem services. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Prolonged Instability Prior to a Regime Shift | Science ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Regime shifts are generally defined as the point of ‘abrupt’ change in the state of a system. However, a seemingly abrupt transition can be the product of a system reorganization that has been ongoing much longer than is evident in statistical analysis of a single component of the system. Using both univariate and multivariate statistical methods, we tested a long-term high-resolution paleoecological dataset with a known change in species assemblage for a regime shift. Analysis of this dataset with Fisher Information and multivariate time series modeling showed that there was a∼2000 year period of instability prior to the regime shift. This period of instability and the subsequent regime shift coincide with regional climate change, indicating that the system is undergoing extrinsic forcing. Paleoecological records offer a unique opportunity to test tools for the detection of thresholds and stable-states, and thus to examine the long-term stability of ecosystems over periods of multiple millennia. This manuscript explores various methods of assessing the transition between alternative states in an ecological system described by a long-term high-resolution paleoecological dataset.

Analysis of abrupt transitions in ecological systems

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The occurrence and causes of abrupt transitions, thresholds, or regime shifts between ecosystem states are of great concern and the likelihood of such transitions is increasing for many ecological systems. General understanding of abrupt transitions has been advanced by theory, but hindered by the l...

Challenges in the participatory assessment of sustainable management practices in dryland ecosystems under regime shifts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jucker Riva, Matteo; Schwilch, Gudrun; Liniger, Hanspeter

2015-04-01

Regime shifts, defined as a radical and persistent reconfiguration of an ecosystem following a disturbance, have been acknowledged by scientists as a very important aspect of the dynamic of ecosystems. However, their consideration in land management planning remains marginal and limited to specific processes and systems. Current research focuses on mathematical modeling and statistical analysis of spatio-temporal data for specific environmental variables. These methods do not fulfill the needs of land managers, who are confronted with a multitude of processes and pressure types and require clear and simple strategies to prevent regime shift or to increase the resilience of their environment. The EU-FP7 CASCADE project is looking at regime shifts of dryland ecosystems in southern Europe and specifically focuses on rangeland and forest systems which are prone to various land degradation threats. One of the aims of the project is to evaluate the impact of different management practices on the dynamic of the environment in a participatory manner, including a multi-stakeholder evaluation of the state of the environment and of the management potential. To achieve this objective we have organized several stakeholder meetings and we have compiled a review of management practices using the WOCAT methodology, which enables merging scientific and land users knowledge. We highlight here the main challenges we have encountered in applying the notion of regime shift to real world socio-ecological systems and in translating related concepts such as tipping points, stable states, hysteresis and resilience to land managers, using concrete examples from CASCADE study sites. Secondly, we explore the advantages of including land users' knowledge in the scientific understanding of regime shifts. Moreover, we discuss useful alternative concepts and lessons learnt that will allow us to build a participatory method for the assessment of resilient management practices in specific socio-ecological systems and to foster adaptive dryland management.

Abrupt transitions of the top-down controlled Black Sea pelagic ecosystem during 1960 2000: Evidence for regime-shifts under strong fishery exploitation and nutrient enrichment modulated by climate-induced variations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oguz, Temel; Gilbert, Denis

2007-02-01

Functioning of the Black Sea ecosystem has profoundly changed since the early 1970s under cumulative effects of excessive nutrient enrichment, strong cooling/warming, over-exploitation of pelagic fish stocks, and population outbreak of gelatinous carnivores. Applying a set of criteria to the long-term (1960-2000) ecological time-series data, the present study demonstrates that the Black Sea ecosystem was reorganised during this transition phase in different forms of top-down controlled food web structure through successive regime-shifts of distinct ecological properties. The Secchi disc depth, oxic-anoxic interface zone, dissolved oxygen and hydrogen sulphide concentrations also exhibit abrupt transition between their alternate regimes, and indicate tight coupling between the lower trophic food web structure and the biogeochemical pump in terms of regime-shift events. The first shift, in 1973-1974, marks a switch from large predatory fish to small planktivore fish-controlled system, which persisted until 1989 in the form of increasing small pelagic and phytoplankton biomass and decreasing zooplankton biomass. The increase in phytoplankton biomass is further supported by a bottom-up contribution due to the cumulative response to high anthropogenic nutrient load and the concurrent shift of the physical system to the "cold climate regime" following its ˜20-year persistence in the "warm climate regime". The end of the 1980s signifies the depletion of small planktivores and the transition to a gelatinous carnivore-controlled system. By the end of the 1990s, small planktivore populations take over control of the system again. Concomitantly, their top-down pressure when combined with diminishing anthropogenic nutrient load and more limited nutrient supply into the surface waters due to stabilizing effects of relatively warm winter conditions switched the "high production" regime of phytoplankton to its background "low production" regime. The Black Sea regime-shifts appear to be sporadic events forced by strong transient decadal perturbations, and therefore differ from the multi-decadal scale cyclical events observed in pelagic ocean ecosystems under low-frequency climatic forcing. The Black Sea observations illustrate that eutrophication and extreme fishery exploitation can indeed induce hysteresis in large marine ecosystems, when they can exert sufficiently strong forcing onto the system. They further illustrate the link between the disruption of the top predators, proliferation of new predator stocks, and regime-shift events. Examples of these features have been reported for some aquatic ecosystems, but are extremely limited for large marine ecosystems.

Fisheries portfolio diversification and turnover buffer Alaskan fishing communities from abrupt resource and market changes

PubMed Central

Cline, Timothy J.; Schindler, Daniel E.; Hilborn, Ray

2017-01-01

Abrupt shifts in natural resources and their markets are a ubiquitous challenge to human communities. Building resilient social-ecological systems requires approaches that are robust to uncertainty and to regime shifts. Harvesting diverse portfolios of natural resources and adapting portfolios in response to change could stabilize economies reliant on natural resources and their markets, both of which are prone to unpredictable shifts. Here we use fisheries catch and revenue data from Alaskan fishing communities over 34 years to test whether diversification and turnover in the composition of fishing opportunities increased economic stability during major ocean and market regime shifts in 1989. More than 85% of communities show reduced fishing revenues following these regime shifts. However, communities with the highest portfolio diversity and those that could opportunistically shift the composition of resources they harvest, experienced negligible or even positive changes in revenue. Maintaining diversity in economic opportunities and enabling turnover facilitates sustainability of communities reliant on renewable resources facing uncertain futures. PMID:28091534

The Mediterranean Sea regime shift at the end of the 1980s, and intriguing parallelisms with other European basins.

PubMed

Conversi, Alessandra; Fonda Umani, Serena; Peluso, Tiziana; Molinero, Juan Carlos; Santojanni, Alberto; Edwards, Martin

2010-05-19

Regime shifts are abrupt changes encompassing a multitude of physical properties and ecosystem variables, which lead to new regime conditions. Recent investigations focus on the changes in ecosystem diversity and functioning associated to such shifts. Of particular interest, because of the implication on climate drivers, are shifts that occur synchronously in separated basins. In this work we analyze and review long-term records of Mediterranean ecological and hydro-climate variables and find that all point to a synchronous change in the late 1980s. A quantitative synthesis of the literature (including observed oceanic data, models and satellite analyses) shows that these years mark a major change in Mediterranean hydrographic properties, surface circulation, and deep water convection (the Eastern Mediterranean Transient). We provide novel analyses that link local, regional and basin scale hydrological properties with two major indicators of large scale climate, the North Atlantic Oscillation index and the Northern Hemisphere Temperature index, suggesting that the Mediterranean shift is part of a large scale change in the Northern Hemisphere. We provide a simplified scheme of the different effects of climate vs. temperature on pelagic ecosystems. Our results show that the Mediterranean Sea underwent a major change at the end of the 1980s that encompassed atmospheric, hydrological, and ecological systems, for which it can be considered a regime shift. We further provide evidence that the local hydrography is linked to the larger scale, northern hemisphere climate. These results suggest that the shifts that affected the North, Baltic, Black and Mediterranean (this work) Seas at the end of the 1980s, that have been so far only partly associated, are likely linked as part a northern hemisphere change. These findings bear wide implications for the development of climate change scenarios, as synchronous shifts may provide the key for distinguishing local (i.e., basin) anthropogenic drivers, such as eutrophication or fishing, from larger scale (hemispheric) climate drivers.

Hydrological regulation drives regime shifts: evidence from paleolimnology and ecosystem modeling of a large shallow Chinese lake.

PubMed

Kong, Xiangzhen; He, Qishuang; Yang, Bin; He, Wei; Xu, Fuliu; Janssen, Annette B G; Kuiper, Jan J; van Gerven, Luuk P A; Qin, Ning; Jiang, Yujiao; Liu, Wenxiu; Yang, Chen; Bai, Zelin; Zhang, Min; Kong, Fanxiang; Janse, Jan H; Mooij, Wolf M

2017-02-01

Quantitative evidence of sudden shifts in ecological structure and function in large shallow lakes is rare, even though they provide essential benefits to society. Such 'regime shifts' can be driven by human activities which degrade ecological stability including water level control (WLC) and nutrient loading. Interactions between WLC and nutrient loading on the long-term dynamics of shallow lake ecosystems are, however, often overlooked and largely underestimated, which has hampered the effectiveness of lake management. Here, we focus on a large shallow lake (Lake Chaohu) located in one of the most densely populated areas in China, the lower Yangtze River floodplain, which has undergone both WLC and increasing nutrient loading over the last several decades. We applied a novel methodology that combines consistent evidence from both paleolimnological records and ecosystem modeling to overcome the hurdle of data insufficiency and to unravel the drivers and underlying mechanisms in ecosystem dynamics. We identified the occurrence of two regime shifts: one in 1963, characterized by the abrupt disappearance of submerged vegetation, and another around 1980, with strong algal blooms being observed thereafter. Using model scenarios, we further disentangled the roles of WLC and nutrient loading, showing that the 1963 shift was predominantly triggered by WLC, whereas the shift ca. 1980 was attributed to aggravated nutrient loading. Our analysis also shows interactions between these two stressors. Compared to the dynamics driven by nutrient loading alone, WLC reduced the critical P loading and resulted in earlier disappearance of submerged vegetation and emergence of algal blooms by approximately 26 and 10 years, respectively. Overall, our study reveals the significant role of hydrological regulation in driving shallow lake ecosystem dynamics, and it highlights the urgency of using multi-objective management criteria that includes ecological sustainability perspectives when implementing hydrological regulation for aquatic ecosystems around the globe. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Analog-based fire regime and vegetation shifts in mountainous regions of the western US

Treesearch

Sean A. Parks; Lisa M. Holsinger; Carol Miller; Marc-Andre Parisien

2017-01-01

Climate change is expected to result in substantial ecological impacts across the globe. These impacts are uncertain but there is strong consensus that they will almost certainly affect fire regimes and vegetation. In this study, we evaluated how climate change may influence fire frequency, fire severity, and broad classes of vegetation in mountainous ecoregions of the...

Ecological resilience

USGS Publications Warehouse

Allen, Craig R.; Garmestiani, Ahjond S.; Sundstrom, Shana; Angeler, David G.

2016-01-01

Resilience is the capacity of complex systems of people and nature to withstand disturbance without shifting into an alternate regime, or a different type of system organized around different processes and structures (Holling, 1973). Resilience theory was developed to explain the non-linear dynamics of complex adaptive systems, like social-ecological systems (SES) (Walker & Salt, 2006). It is often apparent when the resilience of a SES has been exceeded as the system discernibly changes, such as when a thriving city shifts into a poverty trap, but it is difficult to predict when that shift might occur because of the non-linear dynamics of complex systems. Ecological resilience should not be confused with engineering resilience (Angeler & Allen, 2016), which emphasizes the ability of a SES to perform a specific task consistently and predictably, and to re-establish performance quickly should a disturbance occur. Engineering resilience assumes that complex systems are characterized by a single equilibrium state, and this assumption is not appropriate for complex adaptive systems such as SES. In the risk governance context this means that compounded perturbations derived from hazards or global change can have unexpected and highly uncertain effects on natural resources, humans and societies. These effects can manifest in regime shifts, potentially spurring environmental degradation that might lock SES in an undesirable system state that can be difficult to reverse, and as a consequence economic crises, conflict, human health problems.

Landscape dynamics in the wildland-urban interface

Treesearch

Wayne C. Zipperer

2012-01-01

The wildland–urban interface represents landscape change—changes brought about by urbanization, by shifts in forest management, and altered disturbance regimes, each having ecological, social, and economic ramifications. In this chapter, I will focus on some of the ecological ramifications associated with landscape change, primarily forest fragmentation and...

Integrated ecological and chemical food web accumulation modeling explains PAH temporal trends during regime shifts in a shallow lake.

PubMed

Kong, Xiangzhen; He, Wei; Qin, Ning; Liu, Wenxiu; Yang, Bin; Yang, Chen; Xu, Fuliu; Mooij, Wolf M; Koelmans, Albert A

2017-08-01

Shallow lakes can switch suddenly from a turbid situation with high concentrations of phytoplankton and other suspended solids to a vegetated state with clear water, and vice versa. These alternative stable states may have a substantial impact on the fate of hydrophobic organic compounds (HOCs). Models that are fit to simulate impacts from these complex interactions are scarce. We developed a contaminant fate model which is linked to an ecosystem model (PCLake) for shallow lakes. This integrated model was successful in simulating long-term dynamics (1953-2012) of representative polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in the main biotic and abiotic components in a large shallow lake (Chaohu in China), which has undergone regime shifts in this period. Historical records from sediment cores were used to evaluate the model. The model revealed that regime shifts in shallow lakes had a strong impact on the fate of less hydrophobic compounds due to the large storage capacity of macrophytes, which accumulated up to 55.6% of phenanthrene in the clear state. The abrupt disappearance of macrophytes after the regime shift resulted in a sudden change in phenanthrene distribution, as the sediment became the major sink. For more hydrophobic compounds such as benzo(a)pyrene, the modeled impact of the regime shift was negligible for the whole environment, yet large for biotic compartments. This study is the first to provide a full mechanistic analysis of the impact of regime shifts on the fate of PAHs in a real lake ecosystem. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Contrasting patterns of free-living bacterioplankton diversity in macrophyte-dominated versus phytoplankton blooming regimes in Dianchi Lake, a shallow lake in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yujing; Li, Huabing; Xing, Peng; Wu, Qinglong

2017-03-01

Freshwater shallow lakes typically exhibit two alternative stable states under certain nutrient loadings: macrophyte-dominated and phytoplankton-dominated water regimes. An ecosystem regime shift from macrophytes to phytoplankton blooming typically reduces the number of species of invertebrates and fishes and results in the homogenization of communities in freshwater lakes. We investigated how microbial biodiversity has responded to a shift of the ecosystem regime in Dianchi Lake, which was previously fully covered with submerged macrophytes but currently harbors both ecological states. We observed marked divergence in the diversity and community composition of bacterioplankton between the two regimes. Although species richness, estimated as the number of operational taxonomic units and phylogenetic diversity (PD), was higher in the phytoplankton dominated ecosystem after this shift, the dissimilarity of bacterioplankton community across space decreased. This decrease in beta diversity was accompanied by loss of planktonic bacteria unique to the macrophyte-dominated ecosystem. Mantel tests between bacterioplankton community distances and Euclidian distance of environmental parameters indicated that this reduced bacterial community differentiation primarily reflected the loss of environmental niches, particularly in the macrophyte regime. The loss of this small-scale heterogeneity in bacterial communities should be considered when assessing long-term biodiversity changes in response to ecosystem regime conversions in freshwater lakes.

Resilience and Alternative Stable States of Tropical Forest Landscapes under Shifting Cultivation Regimes

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

Shifting cultivation is a traditional agricultural practice in most tropical regions of the world and has the potential to provide for human livelihoods while hosting substantial biodiversity. Little is known about the resilience of shifting cultivation to increasing agricultural demands on the landscape or to unexpected disturbances. To investigate these issues, we develop a simple social-ecological model and implement it with literature-derived ecological parameters for six shifting cultivation landscapes from three continents. Analyzing the model with the tools of dynamical systems analysis, we show that such landscapes exhibit two stable states, one characterized by high forest cover and agricultural productivity, and another with much lower values of these traits. For some combinations of agricultural pressure and ecological parameters both of these states can potentially exist, and the actual state of the forest depends critically on its historic state. In many cases, the landscapes’ ‘ecological resilience’, or amount of forest that could be destroyed without shifting out of the forested stability domain, declined substantially at lower levels of agricultural pressure than would lead to maximum productivity. A measure of ‘engineering resilience’, the recovery time from standardized disturbances, was independent of ecological resilience. These findings suggest that maximization of short-term agricultural output may have counterproductive impacts on the long-term productivity of shifting cultivation landscapes and the persistence of forested areas. PMID:26406907

Early warning signals of regime shifts in coupled human–environment systems

PubMed Central

Bauch, Chris T.; Sigdel, Ram; Pharaon, Joe; Anand, Madhur

2016-01-01

In complex systems, a critical transition is a shift in a system’s dynamical regime from its current state to a strongly contrasting state as external conditions move beyond a tipping point. These transitions are often preceded by characteristic early warning signals such as increased system variability. However, early warning signals in complex, coupled human–environment systems (HESs) remain little studied. Here, we compare critical transitions and their early warning signals in a coupled HES model to an equivalent environment model uncoupled from the human system. We parameterize the HES model, using social and ecological data from old-growth forests in Oregon. We find that the coupled HES exhibits a richer variety of dynamics and regime shifts than the uncoupled environment system. Moreover, the early warning signals in the coupled HES can be ambiguous, heralding either an era of ecosystem conservationism or collapse of both forest ecosystems and conservationism. The presence of human feedback in the coupled HES can also mitigate the early warning signal, making it more difficult to detect the oncoming regime shift. We furthermore show how the coupled HES can be “doomed to criticality”: Strategic human interactions cause the system to remain perpetually in the vicinity of a collapse threshold, as humans become complacent when the resource seems protected but respond rapidly when it is under immediate threat. We conclude that the opportunities, benefits, and challenges of modeling regime shifts and early warning signals in coupled HESs merit further research. PMID:27815533

Extreme precipitation patterns reduced terrestrial ecosystem production across biomass

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Precipitation regimes are predicted to shift to more extreme patterns that are characterized by more intense rainfall events and longer dry intervals, yet their ecological impacts on vegetation production remain uncertain across biomes in natural climatic conditions. This in situ study investigated ...

Regime shifts and panarchies in regional scale social-ecological water systems

EPA Science Inventory

In this article we summarize histories of nonlinear, complex interactions among societal, legal, and ecosystem dynamics in six North American water basins, as they respond to changing climate. These case studies were chosen to explore the conditions for emergence of adaptive gove...

Regime Shift and Microbial Dynamics in a Sequencing Batch Reactor for Nitrification and Anammox Treatment of Urine ▿†

PubMed Central

Bürgmann, Helmut; Jenni, Sarina; Vazquez, Francisco; Udert, Kai M.

2011-01-01

The microbial population and physicochemical process parameters of a sequencing batch reactor for nitrogen removal from urine were monitored over a 1.5-year period. Microbial community fingerprinting (automated ribosomal intergenic spacer analysis), 16S rRNA gene sequencing, and quantitative PCR on nitrogen cycle functional groups were used to characterize the microbial population. The reactor combined nitrification (ammonium oxidation)/anammox with organoheterotrophic denitrification. The nitrogen elimination rate initially increased by 400%, followed by an extended period of performance degradation. This phase was characterized by accumulation of nitrite and nitrous oxide, reduced anammox activity, and a different but stable microbial community. Outwashing of anammox bacteria or their inhibition by oxygen or nitrite was insufficient to explain reactor behavior. Multiple lines of evidence, e.g., regime-shift analysis of chemical and physical parameters and cluster and ordination analysis of the microbial community, indicated that the system had experienced a rapid transition to a new stable state that led to the observed inferior process rates. The events in the reactor can thus be interpreted to be an ecological regime shift. Constrained ordination indicated that the pH set point controlling cycle duration, temperature, airflow rate, and the release of nitric and nitrous oxides controlled the primarily heterotrophic microbial community. We show that by combining chemical and physical measurements, microbial community analysis and ecological theory allowed extraction of useful information about the causes and dynamics of the observed process instability. PMID:21724875

Regime shifts and ecological catastrophes in a model of plankton-oxygen dynamics under the climate change.

PubMed

Petrovskii, Sergei; Sekerci, Yadigar; Venturino, Ezio

2017-07-07

It is estimated that more than a half of the total atmospheric oxygen is produced in the oceans due to the photosynthetic activity of phytoplankton. Any significant decrease in the net oxygen production by phytoplankton is therefore likely to result in the depletion of atmospheric oxygen and in a global mass mortality of animals and humans. In its turn, the rate of oxygen production is known to depend on water temperature and hence can be affected by the global warming. We address this problem theoretically by considering a model of a coupled plankton-oxygen dynamics where the rate of oxygen production slowly changes with time to account for the ocean warming. We show that, when the temperature rises sufficiently high, a regime shift happens: the sustainable oxygen production becomes impossible and the system's dynamics leads to fast oxygen depletion and plankton extinction. We also consider a scenario when, after a certain period of increase, the temperature is set on a new higher yet apparently safe value, i.e. before the oxygen depletion disaster happens. We show that in this case the system dynamics may exhibit a long-term quasi-sustainable dynamics that can still result in an ecological disaster (oxygen depletion and mass extinctions) but only after a considerable period of time. Finally, we discuss the early warning signals of the approaching regime shift resulting in the disaster. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Extrinsic regime shifts drive abrupt changes in regeneration dynamics at upper treeline in the Rocky Mountains, U.S.A.

PubMed

Elliott, Grant P

2012-07-01

Given the widespread and often dramatic influence of climate change on terrestrial ecosystems, it is increasingly common for abrupt threshold changes to occur, yet explicitly testing for climate and ecological regime shifts is lacking in climatically sensitive upper treeline ecotones. In this study, quantitative evidence based on empirical data is provided to support the key role of extrinsic, climate-induced thresholds in governing the spatial and temporal patterns of tree establishment in these high-elevation environments. Dendroecological techniques were used to reconstruct a 420-year history of regeneration dynamics within upper treeline ecotones along a latitudinal gradient (approximately 44-35 degrees N) in the Rocky Mountains. Correlation analysis was used to assess the possible influence of minimum and maximum temperature indices and cool-season (November-April) precipitation on regional age-structure data. Regime-shift analysis was used to detect thresholds in tree establishment during the entire period of record (1580-2000), temperature variables significantly Correlated with establishment during the 20th century, and cool-season precipitation. Tree establishment was significantly correlated with minimum temperature during the spring (March-May) and cool season. Regime-shift analysis identified an abrupt increase in regional tree establishment in 1950 (1950-1954 age class). Coincident with this period was a shift toward reduced cool-season precipitation. The alignment of these climate conditions apparently triggered an abrupt increase in establishment that was unprecedented during the period of record. Two main findings emerge from this research that underscore the critical role of climate in governing regeneration dynamics within upper treeline ecotones. (1) Regional climate variability is capable of exceeding bioclimatic thresholds, thereby initiating synchronous and abrupt changes in the spatial and temporal patterns of tree establishment at broad regional scales. (2) The importance of climate parameters exceeding critical threshold values and triggering a regime shift in tree establishment appears to be contingent on the alignment of favorable temperature and moisture regimes. This research suggests that threshold changes in the climate system can fundamentally alter regeneration dynamics within upper treeline ecotones and, through the use of regime-shift analysis, reveals important climate-vegetation linkages.

Socio-ecological transitions trigger fire regime shifts and modulate fire-climate interactions in the Sierra Nevada, CA, 1600-2015 CE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trouet, V.; Taylor, A. H.; Skinner, C. N.; Stephens, S.

2016-12-01

In California, large wildfires cause significant socio-ecological impacts and they incur high federal funding costs for fire suppression. Future fire activity is projected to increase with climate change, but anthropogenic effects can modulate or even override climatic effects causing large uncertainty in fire projections. We developed a 415-year fire history record (1600-2015 CE) based on tree-ring fire-scar data from 29 sites throughout the Sierra Nevada, California. Changes in socio-ecological systems from the Native American to the current period drove large historical fire regime shifts in our record and socio-ecological conditions amplified and buffered fire response to climate. Fire activity was highest and fire-climate relationships were strongest after Native American depopulation - following mission establishment ca. 1775 CE - reduced the self-limiting effect of Native American burns on fire spread. With the Gold Rush and Euro-American immigration (ca. 1865 CE), area burned declined and the strong multidecadal relationship between temperature and fire decayed and then disappeared after implementation of fire suppression (ca. 1900 CE). The past anthropogenic modulation of fire-climate relationships underscores the need for nuanced representations of human-fire interactions to improve the skill of future fire-climate projections. In California, large wildfires cause significant socio-ecological impacts and they incur high federal funding costs for fire suppression. Future fire activity is projected to increase with climate change, but anthropogenic effects can modulate or even override climatic effects causing large uncertainty in fire projections. We developed a 415-year fire history record (1600-2015 CE) based on tree-ring fire-scar data from 29 sites throughout the Sierra Nevada, California. Changes in socio-ecological systems from the Native American to the current period drove large historical fire regime shifts in our record and socio-ecological conditions amplified and buffered fire response to climate. Fire activity was highest and fire-climate relationships were strongest after Native American depopulation - following mission establishment ca. 1775 CE - reduced the self-limiting effect of Native American burns on fire spread. With the Gold Rush and Euro-American immigration (ca. 1865 CE), area burned declined and the strong multidecadal relationship between temperature and fire decayed and then disappeared after implementation of fire suppression (ca. 1900 CE). The past anthropogenic modulation of fire-climate relationships underscores the need for nuanced representations of human-fire interactions to improve the skill of future fire-climate projections.

Long-term affects of experimental flows on riverine biota below a reservoir

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Robinson, Chris; Ortlepp, Johannes

2010-05-01

Large dams have altered the flow regime of most rivers on the globe with consequent effects on riverine biota. Experimental flows (multiple floods per year) have been used on the regulated Spöl River below Livigno Reservoir for over 9 years to enhance the ecological condition of the river. The flow program has improved the brown trout fishery in the river as indicated by an increased number of redds. Floods have reset periphyton assemblages from a moss-dominated streambed to one dominated by diatoms and patches of filamentous algae. Zoobenthic assemblages have shown dramatic shifts in benthic structure in line with predictions from altered state models. Ecosystem regime shifts have been characterized with increases in parameter variances followed by periods of stable states. The system appears to be entering a second zoobenthic regime shift after year 8, perhaps in response to biotic interactions due to changes in the fishery. The response patterns clearly show that a long-term perspective must be in place when assessing biotic responses to changes in physical habitat properties resulting from flow experiments.

Extreme precipitation patterns and reductions of terrestrial ecosystem production across biomes

Treesearch

Yongguang Zhang; M. Susan Moran; Mark A. Nearing; Guillermo E. Ponce Campos; Alfredo R. Huete; Anthony R. Buda; David D. Bosch; Stacey A. Gunter; Stanley G. Kitchen; W. Henry McNab; Jack A. Morgan; Mitchel P. McClaran; Diane S. Montoya; Debra P.C. Peters; Patrick J. Starks

2013-01-01

Precipitation regimes are predicted to shift to more extreme patterns that are characterized by more heavy rainfall events and longer dry intervals, yet their ecological impacts on vegetation production remain uncertain across biomes in natural climatic conditions. This in situ study investigated the effects of these climatic conditions on aboveground net primary...

Effects of climate change on ecological disturbance in the northern Rockies

USGS Publications Warehouse

Loehman, Rachel A.; Bentz, Barbara J.; DeNitto, Gregg A.; Keane, Robert E.; Manning, Mary E.; Duncan, Jacob P.; Egan, Joel M.; Jackson, Marcus B.; Kegley, Sandra; Lockman, I. Blakey; Pearson, Dean E.; Powell, James A.; Shelly, Steve; Steed, Brytten E.; Zambino, Paul J.; Halofsky, Jessica E.; Peterson, David L.

2018-01-01

Disturbances alter ecosystem, community, or population structure and change elements of the biological and/or physical environment. Climate changes can alter the timing, magnitude, frequency, and duration of disturbance events, as well as the interactions of disturbances on a landscape, and climate change may already be affecting disturbance events and regimes. Interactions among disturbance regimes, such as the cooccurrence in space and time of bark beetle outbreaks and wildfires, can result in highly visible, rapidly occurring, and persistent changes in landscape composition and structure. Understanding how altered disturbance patterns and multiple disturbance interactions might result in novel and emergent landscape behaviors is critical for addressing climate change impacts and for designing land management strategies that are appropriate for future climates This chapter describes the ecology of important disturbance regimes in the Northern Rockies region, and potential shifts in these regimes as a consequence of observed and projected climate change. We summarize five disturbance types present in the Northern Rockies that are sensitive to a changing climate--wildfires, bark beetles, white pine blister rust (Cronartium ribicola), other forest diseases, and nonnative plant invasions—and provide information that can help managers anticipate how, when, where, and why climate changes may alter the characteristics of disturbance regimes.

How Does a Divided Population Respond to Change?

PubMed Central

Qubbaj, Murad R.; Muneepeerakul, Rachata; Aggarwal, Rimjhim M.; Anderies, John M.

2015-01-01

Most studies on the response of socioeconomic systems to a sudden shift focus on long-term equilibria or end points. Such narrow focus forgoes many valuable insights. Here we examine the transient dynamics of regime shift on a divided population, exemplified by societies divided ideologically, politically, economically, or technologically. Replicator dynamics is used to investigate the complex transient dynamics of the population response. Though simple, our modeling approach exhibits a surprisingly rich and diverse array of dynamics. Our results highlight the critical roles played by diversity in strategies and the magnitude of the shift. Importantly, it allows for a variety of strategies to arise organically as an integral part of the transient dynamics—as opposed to an independent process—of population response to a regime shift, providing a link between the population's past and future diversity patterns. Several combinations of different populations' strategy distributions and shifts were systematically investigated. Such rich dynamics highlight the challenges of anticipating the response of a divided population to a change. The findings in this paper can potentially improve our understanding of a wide range of socio-ecological and technological transitions. PMID:26161859

How Does a Divided Population Respond to Change?

PubMed

Qubbaj, Murad R; Muneepeerakul, Rachata; Aggarwal, Rimjhim M; Anderies, John M

2015-01-01

Most studies on the response of socioeconomic systems to a sudden shift focus on long-term equilibria or end points. Such narrow focus forgoes many valuable insights. Here we examine the transient dynamics of regime shift on a divided population, exemplified by societies divided ideologically, politically, economically, or technologically. Replicator dynamics is used to investigate the complex transient dynamics of the population response. Though simple, our modeling approach exhibits a surprisingly rich and diverse array of dynamics. Our results highlight the critical roles played by diversity in strategies and the magnitude of the shift. Importantly, it allows for a variety of strategies to arise organically as an integral part of the transient dynamics--as opposed to an independent process--of population response to a regime shift, providing a link between the population's past and future diversity patterns. Several combinations of different populations' strategy distributions and shifts were systematically investigated. Such rich dynamics highlight the challenges of anticipating the response of a divided population to a change. The findings in this paper can potentially improve our understanding of a wide range of socio-ecological and technological transitions.

Ecosystem thresholds in Lake Kälksjön, Sweden, in response to rapid climate cooling 8200 years ago

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Randsalu Wendrup, Linda; Conley, Daniel J.; Hammarlund, Dan; Snowball, Ian; Carstensen, Jacob; Fritz, Sherilyn C.

2010-05-01

Commonly, ecosystems are thought to show a smooth response in relation to gradually changing conditions, shifting over long periods of time from one state to another, thus reflecting the continuum of change along environmental gradients for each set of conditions. The theoretical concept that ecosystems can experience regime shifts and shift abruptly from one state to another, producing changes in dominance of organisms and overall ecosystem behaviour has, however, existed for more than 30 years. The theory has been further developed and it has been demonstrated, in a number of different terrestrial, freshwater and marine systems, that ecosystems stressed by human or climate perturbations can undergo drastic changes, first reaching an ecological threshold and then switching abruptly to an alternative state. The study of regime shifts in lakes as a result of climate change is complicated because lake biota and processes depend not only on regional climate changes but also on changes in the lake catchment and processes within the lake. Many factors in a lake will respond simultaneously and differently to the effects of climate change, resulting in complex synergy within the aquatic environment. Nevertheless we want to bring together concepts generated in contemporary ecological studies to study and test hypotheses regarding sudden mode shifts and ecological reorganisations in lakes using paleoecological methods, using diatom and numerical analyses as the main analytical tools. We are investigating how lakes respond to climate, during periods of both cooling and warming, identifying thresholds at which regime shifts occur and trying to develop numerical methods to test for regime shifts in paleoecological data. Here we present the preliminary results from a study of the ecosystem response to the "8.2 ka cold event" in Lake Kälksjön in west central Sweden. The lake is annually laminated (varved) and a series of nine radiocarbon measurements obtained at increments of 50 years have been used to wiggle match the sediments to the tree-ring derived radiocarbon calibration curve (Snowball et al., in press). Snowball et al. (in press) used the wiggle matching, organic carbon measurements, mineral magnetic parameters and XRF data and reconstructed a distinct period of enhanced erosion in the catchment from 8066±25 to 7920±25 cal. yr BP. Their results suggest that an abrupt onset of winter precipitation in west-central Sweden started at least 50 years after the onset of the "8.2 kyr cold event" as defined by oxygen isotope data from Greenland. The lake has been sampled for diatom analysis at increments of 10 years over 500 years covering the 8.2 event. The wiggle matched chronology and presence of varves allows for a high resolution time constrained diatom analysis which we hope will reveal the response of the ecosystem to the rapid cooling and also allow us to work on developing and testing numerical methods for detecting and analysing regime shifts. A preliminary low resolution diatom study shows that the diatom flora displays a benthic response to the climate cooling. It also shows that the diatoms seem to react earlier than the previously measured parameters, suggesting that the diatoms and the lake ecosystem are affected by the rapid cooling rather immediately, for example due to changes in ice cover duration, while increased winter precipitation affects the ecosystem at a later stage.

Changing disturbance regimes, ecological memory, and forest resilience

USGS Publications Warehouse

Johnstone, Jill F.; Allen, Craig D.; Franklin, Jerry F.; Frelich, Lee E.; Harvey, Brian J.; Higuera, Philip E.; Mack, Michelle C.; Meentemeyer, Ross K.; Metz, Margaret R.; Perry, George LW; Schoennagel, Tania; Turner, Monica G.

2016-01-01

Ecological memory is central to how ecosystems respond to disturbance and is maintained by two types of legacies – information and material. Species life-history traits represent an adaptive response to disturbance and are an information legacy; in contrast, the abiotic and biotic structures (such as seeds or nutrients) produced by single disturbance events are material legacies. Disturbance characteristics that support or maintain these legacies enhance ecological resilience and maintain a “safe operating space” for ecosystem recovery. However, legacies can be lost or diminished as disturbance regimes and environmental conditions change, generating a “resilience debt” that manifests only after the system is disturbed. Strong effects of ecological memory on post-disturbance dynamics imply that contingencies (effects that cannot be predicted with certainty) of individual disturbances, interactions among disturbances, and climate variability combine to affect ecosystem resilience. We illustrate these concepts and introduce a novel ecosystem resilience framework with examples of forest disturbances, primarily from North America. Identifying legacies that support resilience in a particular ecosystem can help scientists and resource managers anticipate when disturbances may trigger abrupt shifts in forest ecosystems, and when forests are likely to be resilient.

Exploring whitebark pine resilience in the crown of the continent

Treesearch

Stacey A. Burke; Michael S. Quinn

2011-01-01

Whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis) populations are declining across western North America due to synergies of disturbances, both natural and anthropogenic. Losses at treeline may result in significant changes to the upper subalpine zone, which may result in a regime shift, thus affecting the ecological goods and services whitebark pine systems provide for other species...

A critique of the historical-fire-regime concept in conservation.

PubMed

Freeman, Johanna; Kobziar, Leda; Rose, Elizabeth White; Cropper, Wendell

2017-10-01

Prescribed fire is widely accepted as a conservation tool because fire is essential to the maintenance of native biodiversity in many terrestrial communities. Approaches to this land-management technique vary greatly among continents, and sharing knowledge internationally can inform application of prescribed fire worldwide. In North America, decisions about how and when to apply prescribed fire are typically based on the historical-fire-regime concept (HFRC), which holds that replicating the pattern of fires ignited by lightning or preindustrial humans best promotes native species in fire-prone regions. The HFRC rests on 3 assumptions: it is possible to infer historical fire regimes accurately; fire-suppressed communities are ecologically degraded; and reinstating historical fire regimes is the best course of action despite the global shift toward novel abiotic and biotic conditions. We examined the underpinnings of these assumptions by conducting a literature review on the use of historical fire regimes to inform the application of prescribed fire. We found that the practice of inferring historical fire regimes for entire regions or ecosystems often entails substantial uncertainty and can yield equivocal results; ecological outcomes of fire suppression are complex and may not equate to degradation, depending on the ecosystem and context; and habitat fragmentation, invasive species, and other modern factors can interact with fire to produce novel and in some cases negative ecological outcomes. It is therefore unlikely that all 3 assumptions will be fully upheld for any landscape in which prescribed fire is being applied. Although the HFRC is a valuable starting point, it should not be viewed as the sole basis for developing prescribed fire programs. Rather, fire prescriptions should also account for other specific, measurable ecological parameters on a case-by-case basis. To best achieve conservation goals, researchers should seek to understand contemporary fire-biota interactions across trophic levels, functional groups, spatial and temporal scales, and management contexts. © 2017 Society for Conservation Biology.

Chapter 15 - Composition and structure of whitebark and limber pine stands in the Interior West and the silvicultural implications (Project INT-EM-B-14-01)

Treesearch

James N. Long; John Shaw; Marcella Windmuller-Campione

2018-01-01

As forest communities continue to experience interactions between climate change and shifting disturbance regimes, there is anincreased need to link ecological understanding to applied management. Whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis) and limber pine (P. flexilis) are important high-elevation five-needle pines in the...

Disturbance and productivity interactions mediate stability of forest composition and structure.

PubMed

O'Connor, Christopher D; Falk, Donald A; Lynch, Ann M; Swetnam, Thomas W; Wilcox, Craig P

2017-04-01

Fire is returning to many conifer-dominated forests where species composition and structure have been altered by fire exclusion. Ecological effects of these fires are influenced strongly by the degree of forest change during the fire-free period. Response of fire-adapted species assemblages to extended fire-free intervals is highly variable, even in communities with similar historical fire regimes. This variability in plant community response to fire exclusion is not well understood; however, ecological mechanisms such as individual species' adaptations to disturbance or competition and underlying site characteristics that facilitate or impede establishment and growth have been proposed as potential drivers of assemblage response. We used spatially explicit dendrochronological reconstruction of tree population dynamics and fire regimes to examine the influence of historical disturbance frequency (a proxy for adaptation to disturbance or competition), and potential site productivity (a proxy for underlying site characteristics) on the stability of forest composition and structure along a continuous ecological gradient of pine, dry mixed-conifer, mesic mixed-conifer, and spruce-fir forests following fire exclusion. While average structural density increased in all forests, species composition was relatively stable in the lowest productivity pine-dominated and highest productivity spruce-fir-dominated sites immediately following fire exclusion and for the next 100 years, suggesting site productivity as a primary control on species composition and structure in forests with very different historical fire regimes. Species composition was least stable on intermediate productivity sites dominated by mixed-conifer forests, shifting from primarily fire-adapted species to competition-adapted, fire-sensitive species within 20 years of fire exclusion. Rapid changes to species composition and stand densities have been interpreted by some as evidence of high-severity fire. We demonstrate that the very different ecological process of fire exclusion can produce similar changes by shifting selective pressures from disturbance-mediated to productivity-mediated controls. Restoring disturbance-adapted species composition and structure to intermediate productivity forests may help to buffer them against projected increasing temperatures, lengthening fire seasons, and more frequent and prolonged moisture stress. Fewer management options are available to promote adaptation in forest assemblages historically constrained by underlying site productivity. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

Hysteresis, regime shifts, and non-stationarity in aquifer recharge-storage-discharge systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klammler, Harald; Jawitz, James; Annable, Michael; Hatfield, Kirk; Rao, Suresh

2016-04-01

Based on physical principles and geological information we develop a parsimonious aquifer model for Silver Springs, one of the largest karst springs in Florida. The model structure is linear and time-invariant with recharge, aquifer head (storage) and spring discharge as dynamic variables at the springshed (landscape) scale. Aquifer recharge is the hydrological driver with trends over a range of time scales from seasonal to multi-decadal. The freshwater-saltwater interaction is considered as a dynamic storage mechanism. Model results and observed time series show that aquifer storage causes significant rate-dependent hysteretic behavior between aquifer recharge and discharge. This leads to variable discharge per unit recharge over time scales up to decades, which may be interpreted as a gradual and cyclic regime shift in the aquifer drainage behavior. Based on field observations, we further amend the aquifer model by assuming vegetation growth in the spring run to be inversely proportional to stream velocity and to hinder stream flow. This simple modification introduces non-linearity into the dynamic system, for which we investigate the occurrence of rate-independent hysteresis and of different possible steady states with respective regime shifts between them. Results may contribute towards explaining observed non-stationary behavior potentially due to hydrological regime shifts (e.g., triggered by gradual, long-term changes in recharge or single extreme events) or long-term hysteresis (e.g., caused by aquifer storage). This improved understanding of the springshed hydrologic response dynamics is fundamental for managing the ecological, economic and social aspects at the landscape scale.

Community variability and ecological functioning: 40 years of change in the North Sea benthos.

PubMed

Clare, D S; Robinson, L A; Frid, C L J

2015-06-01

Using established associations between species traits (life history, morphological and behavioural characteristics) and key ecological functions, we applied biological traits analysis (BTA) to investigate the consequences of 40 years of change in two North Sea benthic communities. Ecological functioning (trait composition) was found to be statistically indistinguishable across periods that differed significantly in taxonomic composition. A temporary alteration to functioning was, however, inferred at both sampling stations; coinciding with the North Sea regime shift of the 1980s. Trait composition recovered after 1 year at the station located inside the grounds of a trawl fishery, whereas the station located outside the main area of fishing activity underwent a six-year period of significantly altered, and temporally unstable, trait composition. A further alteration to functioning was inferred at the fished station, when the population of a newly established species rapidly increased in numbers. The results suggest that density compensation by characteristically similar (redundant) taxa acts to buffer changes to ecological functioning over time, but that functional stability is subject to aperiodic disruption due to substitutions of dissimilar taxa or uncompensated population fluctuations. The rate at which ecological functioning stabilises and recovers appears to be dependent on environmental context; e.g. disturbance regime. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Anthropogenically driven environmental changes shift the ecological dynamics of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome

PubMed Central

Yang, Jing; Tan, Hua; Huang, Shanqian; Cui, Yujun; Dong, Lu; Ma, Chaofeng; Ma, Changan; Zhou, Sen; Wu, Xiaoxu; Zhang, Yanyun; Wang, Jingjun; Yang, Ruifu; Stenseth, Nils Chr.; Xu, Bing

2017-01-01

Zoonoses are increasingly recognized as an important burden on global public health in the 21st century. High-resolution, long-term field studies are critical for assessing both the baseline and future risk scenarios in a world of rapid changes. We have used a three-decade-long field study on hantavirus, a rodent-borne zoonotic pathogen distributed worldwide, coupled with epidemiological data from an endemic area of China, and show that the shift in the ecological dynamics of Hantaan virus was closely linked to environmental fluctuations at the human-wildlife interface. We reveal that environmental forcing, especially rainfall and resource availability, exert important cascading effects on intra-annual variability in the wildlife reservoir dynamics, leading to epidemics that shift between stable and chaotic regimes. Our models demonstrate that bimodal seasonal epidemics result from a powerful seasonality in transmission, generated from interlocking cycles of agricultural phenology and rodent behavior driven by the rainy seasons. PMID:28141833

Arctic climatechange and its impacts on the ecology of the North Atlantic.

PubMed

Greene, Charles H; Pershing, Andrew J; Cronin, Thomas M; Ceci, Nicole

2008-11-01

Arctic climate change from the Paleocene epoch to the present is reconstructed with the objective of assessing its recent and future impacts on the ecology of the North Atlantic. A recurring theme in Earth's paleoclimate record is the importance of the Arctic atmosphere, ocean, and cryosphere in regulating global climate on a variety of spatial and temporal scales. A second recurring theme in this record is the importance of freshwater export from the Arctic in regulating global- to basin-scale ocean circulation patterns and climate. Since the 1970s, historically unprecedented changes have been observed in the Arctic as climate warming has increased precipitation, river discharge, and glacial as well as sea-ice melting. In addition, modal shifts in the atmosphere have altered Arctic Ocean circulation patterns and the export of freshwater into the North Atlantic. The combination of these processes has resulted in variable patterns of freshwater export from the Arctic Ocean and the emergence of salinity anomalies that have periodically freshened waters in the North Atlantic. Since the early 1990s, changes in Arctic Ocean circulation patterns and freshwater export have been associated with two types of ecological responses in the North Atlantic. The first of these responses has been an ongoing series of biogeographic range expansions by boreal plankton, including renewal of the trans-Arctic exchanges of Pacific species with the Atlantic. The second response was a dramatic regime shift in the shelf ecosystems of the Northwest Atlantic that occurred during the early 1990s. This regime shift resulted from freshening and stratification of the shelf waters, which in turn could be linked to changes in the abundances and seasonal cycles of phytoplankton, zooplankton, and higher trophic-level consumer populations. It is predicted that the recently observed ecological responses to Arctic climate change in the North Atlantic will continue into the near future if current trends in sea ice, freshwater export, and surface ocean salinity continue. It is more difficult to predict ecological responses to abrupt climate change in the more distant future as tipping points in the Earth's climate system are exceeded.

Reassessing regime shifts in the North Pacific: incremental climate change and commercial fishing are necessary for explaining decadal-scale biological variability.

PubMed

Litzow, Michael A; Mueter, Franz J; Hobday, Alistair J

2014-01-01

In areas of the North Pacific that are largely free of overfishing, climate regime shifts - abrupt changes in modes of low-frequency climate variability - are seen as the dominant drivers of decadal-scale ecological variability. We assessed the ability of leading modes of climate variability [Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO), Arctic Oscillation (AO), Pacific-North American Pattern (PNA), North Pacific Index (NPI), El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)] to explain decadal-scale (1965-2008) patterns of climatic and biological variability across two North Pacific ecosystems (Gulf of Alaska and Bering Sea). Our response variables were the first principle component (PC1) of four regional climate parameters [sea surface temperature (SST), sea level pressure (SLP), freshwater input, ice cover], and PCs 1-2 of 36 biological time series [production or abundance for populations of salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.), groundfish, herring (Clupea pallasii), shrimp, and jellyfish]. We found that the climate modes alone could not explain ecological variability in the study region. Both linear models (for climate PC1) and generalized additive models (for biology PC1-2) invoking only the climate modes produced residuals with significant temporal trends, indicating that the models failed to capture coherent patterns of ecological variability. However, when the residual climate trend and a time series of commercial fishery catches were used as additional candidate variables, resulting models of biology PC1-2 satisfied assumptions of independent residuals and out-performed models constructed from the climate modes alone in terms of predictive power. As measured by effect size and Akaike weights, the residual climate trend was the most important variable for explaining biology PC1 variability, and commercial catch the most important variable for biology PC2. Patterns of climate sensitivity and exploitation history for taxa strongly associated with biology PC1-2 suggest plausible mechanistic explanations for these modeling results. Our findings suggest that, even in the absence of overfishing and in areas strongly influenced by internal climate variability, climate regime shift effects can only be understood in the context of other ecosystem perturbations. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Experimental floods cause ecosystem regime shift in a regulated river.

PubMed

Robinson, Christopher T; Uehlinger, Urs

2008-03-01

Reservoirs have altered the flow regime of most rivers on the globe. To simulate the natural flow regime, experimental floods are being implemented on regulated rivers throughout the world to improve their ecological integrity. As a large-scale disturbance, the long-term sequential use of floods provides an excellent empirical approach to examine ecosystem regime shifts in rivers. This study evaluated the long-term effects of floods (15 floods over eight years) on a regulated river. We hypothesized that sequential floods over time would cause a regime shift in the ecosystem. The floods resulted in little change in the physicochemistry of the river, although particulate organic carbon and particulate phosphorus were lower after the floods. The floods eliminated moss cover on bed sediments within the first year of flooding and maintained low periphyton biomass and benthic organic matter after the third year of flooding. Organic matter in transport was reduced after the third year of flooding, although peaks were still observed during rain events due to tributary inputs and side slopes. The floods reduced macroinvertebrate richness and biomass after the first year of floods, but density was not reduced until the third year. The individual mass of invertebrates decreased by about one-half after the floods. Specific taxa displayed either a loss in abundance, or an increase in abundance, or an increase followed by a loss after the third year. The first three flood years were periods of nonequilibrium with coefficients of variation in all measured parameters increasing two to five times from those before the floods. Coefficients of variation decreased after the third year, although they were still higher than before the floods. Analysis of concordance using Kendall's W confirmed the temporal changes observed in macroinvertebrate assemblage structure. An assessment of individual flood effects showed that later floods had approximately 30% less effect on macroinvertebrates than early floods of similar magnitude, suggesting that the new assemblage structure is more resilient to flood disturbance. We conclude that the floods caused an ecosystem regime shift that took three years to unfold. Additional long-term changes or shifts are expected as new taxa colonize the river from other sources.

Water resources management in a homogenizing world: Averting the Growth and Underinvestment trajectory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mirchi, Ali; Watkins, David W.; Huckins, Casey J.; Madani, Kaveh; Hjorth, Peder

2014-09-01

Biotic homogenization, a de facto symptom of a global biodiversity crisis, underscores the urgency of reforming water resources management to focus on the health and viability of ecosystems. Global population and economic growth, coupled with inadequate investment in maintenance of ecological systems, threaten to degrade environmental integrity and ecosystem services that support the global socioeconomic system, indicative of a system governed by the Growth and Underinvestment (G&U) archetype. Water resources management is linked to biotic homogenization and degradation of system integrity through alteration of water systems, ecosystem dynamics, and composition of the biota. Consistent with the G&U archetype, water resources planning primarily treats ecological considerations as exogenous constraints rather than integral, dynamic, and responsive parts of the system. It is essential that the ecological considerations be made objectives of water resources development plans to facilitate the analysis of feedbacks and potential trade-offs between socioeconomic gains and ecological losses. We call for expediting a shift to ecosystem-based management of water resources, which requires a better understanding of the dynamics and links between water resources management actions, ecological side-effects, and associated long-term ramifications for sustainability. To address existing knowledge gaps, models that include dynamics and estimated thresholds for regime shifts or ecosystem degradation need to be developed. Policy levers for implementation of ecosystem-based water resources management include shifting away from growth-oriented supply management, better demand management, increased public awareness, and institutional reform that promotes adaptive and transdisciplinary management approaches.

[Research progress on the degradation mechanisms and restoration of riparian ecosystem].

PubMed

Huang, Kai; Guo, Huai-cheng; Liu, Yong; Yu, Ya-juan; Zhou, Feng

2007-06-01

Restoration and reconstruction of degraded riparian ecosystem caused by natural and anthropogenic disturbances is one of the important issues in restoration ecology and watershed ecology. The disturbances on riparian ecosystem include flow regime alteration, direct modification and watershed disturbance, which have different affecting mechanisms. Flow regime alteration affects riparian ecosystem by changing riparian soil humidity, oxidation-reduction potential, biotaliving environment, and sediment transfer; direct modification affects riparian vegetation diversity through human activities and exotic plants invasion; and watershed disturbance mainly manifests in the channel degradation, aggradation or widening, the lowering of groundwater table, and the modification in fluvial process. The assessment objects of riparian restoration are riparian ecosystem components, and the assessment indicators are shifted from ecological to synthetic indices. Riparian restoration should be based on the detailed understanding of the biological and physical processes which affect riparian ecosystem, and implemented by vegetation restoration and hydrological adjustment at watershed or landscape scale. To extend the research scales and objects and to apply interdisciplinary approaches should be the key points in the further studies on the degradation mechanisms and restoration of riparian ecosystem.

A framework for the resilience of seagrass ecosystems.

PubMed

Unsworth, Richard K F; Collier, Catherine J; Waycott, Michelle; Mckenzie, Len J; Cullen-Unsworth, Leanne C

2015-11-15

Seagrass ecosystems represent a global marine resource that is declining across its range. To halt degradation and promote recovery over large scales, management requires a radical change in emphasis and application that seeks to enhance seagrass ecosystem resilience. In this review we examine how the resilience of seagrass ecosystems is becoming compromised by a range of local to global stressors, resulting in ecological regime shifts that undermine the long-term viability of these productive ecosystems. To examine regime shifts and the management actions that can influence this phenomenon we present a conceptual model of resilience in seagrass ecosystems. The model is founded on a series of features and modifiers that act as interacting influences upon seagrass ecosystem resilience. Improved understanding and appreciation of the factors and modifiers that govern resilience in seagrass ecosystems can be utilised to support much needed evidence based management of a vital natural resource. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effects of low and high salinity regimes on seasonal gametogenesis of the ribbed mussel Geukensia granosissima in coastal Louisiana, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Honig, Aaron; LaPeyre, Megan K.; Supan, John

2014-01-01

Benthic intertidal bivalves play an essential role in estuarine ecosystems by contributing to habitat provision, water filtration, and host vegetation productivity. As such, ecosystem level changes that impact population distributions and persistence of local bivalve populations may have large ecosystem level consequences, making it important to better understand the population ecology of native bivalves. In order to determine potential impacts of shifting salinity and temperature regimes along the northern Gulf of Mexico, the seasonal timing of gametogenesis in the Gulf estuarine ribbed mussel, Geukensia granossisima, was examined across a salinity gradient in southeastern Louisiana, from July 2011 through October 2012. Ten mussels were randomly sampled monthly from low (~ 5) and high (~25) salinity marsh sites in southeastern Louisiana, and histologically processed to determine the seasonal progression of gametogenesis. Peak ripeness occurred at both sites between April and September, was positively correlated with temperature, and coincided with seasonal shifts in salinity. Mussels located in lower salinity waters demonstrated a shorter period of gametogenesis, and lower rates of ripeness indicating that changes in salinity regimes may impact long-term population dynamics.

Denitrification potential under different fertilization regimes is closely coupled with changes in the denitrifying community in a black soil.

PubMed

Yin, Chang; Fan, Fenliang; Song, Alin; Cui, Peiyuan; Li, Tingqiang; Liang, Yongchao

2015-07-01

Preferable inorganic fertilization over the last decades has led to fertility degradation of black soil in Northeast China. However, how fertilization regimes impact denitrification and its related bacterial community in this soil type is still unclear. Here, taking advantage of a suit of molecular ecological tools in combination of assaying the potential denitrification (DP), we explored the variation of activity, community structure, and abundance of nirS and nirK denitrifiers under four different fertilization regimes, namely no fertilization control (N0M0), organic pig manure (N0M1), inorganic fertilization (N1M0), and combination of inorganic fertilizer and pig manure (N1M1). The results indicated that organic fertilization increased DP, but inorganic fertilization had no impacts. The increase of DP was mirrored by the shift of nirS denitrifiers' community structure but not by that of nirK denitrifiers'. Furthermore, the change of DP coincided with the variation of abundances of both denitrifiers. Shifts of community structure and abundance of nirS and nirK denitrifiers were correlated with the change of soil pH, total nitrogen (TN), organic matter (OM), C:P, total phosphorus (TP), and available phosphorus (Olsen P). Our results suggest that the change of DP under these four fertilization regimes was closely related to the shift of denitrifying bacteria communities resulting from the variation of properties in the black soil tested.

Biological assessment of environmental flows for Oklahoma

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fisher, William L.; Seilheimer, Titus S.; Taylor, Jason M.

2012-01-01

Large-scale patterns in fish assemblage structure and functional groups are influenced by alterations in streamflow regime. In this study, we defined an objective threshold for alteration for Oklahoma streams using a combination of the expected range of 27 flow indices and a discriminant analysis to predict flow regime group. We found that fish functional groups in reference flow conditions had species that were more intolerant to flow alterations and preferences for stream habitat and faster flowing water. In contrast, altered sites had more tolerant species that preferred lentic habitat and slower water velocity. Ordination graphs of the presence and functional groups of species revealed an underlying geographical pattern roughly conforming to ecoregions, although there was separation between reference and altered sites within the larger geographical framework. Additionally, we found that reservoir construction and operation significantly altered fish assemblages in two different systems, Bird Creek in central Oklahoma and the Kiamichi River in southeastern Oklahoma. The Bird Creek flow regime shifted from a historically intermittent stream to one with stable perennial flows, and changes in fish assemblage structure covaried with changes in all five components of the flow regime. In contrast, the Kiamichi River flow regime did not change significantly for most flow components despite shifts in fish assemblage structure; however, most of the species associated with shifts in assemblage structure in the Kiamichi River system were characteristic of lentic environments and were likely related more to proximity of reservoirs in the drainage system than changes in flow. The spatial patterns in fish assemblage response to flow alteration, combined with different temporal responses of hydrology and fish assemblage structure at sites downstream of reservoirs, indicate that interactions between flow regime and aquatic biota vary depending on ecological setting. This supports the notion that regional variation in natural flow regimes could affect the development of flow recommendations.

Regime shifts and panarchies in regional scale social-ecological water systems

PubMed Central

Gunderson, Lance; Cosens, Barbara A.; Chaffin, Brian C.; (Tom) Arnold, Craig A.; Fremier, Alexander K.; Garmestani, Ahjond S.; Craig, Robin Kundis; Gosnell, Hannah; Birge, Hannah E.; Allen, Craig R.; Benson, Melinda H.; Morrison, Ryan R.; Stone, Mark C.; Hamm, Joseph A.; Nemec, Kristine; Schlager, Edella; Llewellyn, Dagmar

2018-01-01

In this article we summarize histories of nonlinear, complex interactions among societal, legal, and ecosystem dynamics in six North American water basins, as they respond to changing climate. These case studies were chosen to explore the conditions for emergence of adaptive governance in heavily regulated and developed social-ecological systems nested within a hierarchical governmental system. We summarize resilience assessments conducted in each system to provide a synthesis and reference by the other articles in this special feature. We also present a general framework used to evaluate the interactions between society and ecosystem regimes and the governance regimes chosen to mediate those interactions. The case studies show different ways that adaptive governance may be triggered, facilitated, or constrained by ecological and/or legal processes. The resilience assessments indicate that complex interactions among the governance and ecosystem components of these systems can produce different trajectories, which include patterns of (a) development and stabilization, (b) cycles of crisis and recovery, which includes lurches in adaptation and learning, and (3) periods of innovation, novelty, and transformation. Exploration of cross scale (Panarchy) interactions among levels and sectors of government and society illustrate that they may constrain development trajectories, but may also provide stability during crisis or innovation at smaller scales; create crises, but may also facilitate recovery; and constrain system transformation, but may also provide windows of opportunity in which transformation, and the resources to accomplish it, may occur. The framework is the starting point for our exploration of how law might play a role in enhancing the capacity of social-ecological systems to adapt to climate change. PMID:29780427

Regime shifts and panarchies in regional scale social-ecological water systems.

PubMed

Gunderson, Lance; Cosens, Barbara A; Chaffin, Brian C; Tom Arnold, Craig A; Fremier, Alexander K; Garmestani, Ahjond S; Craig, Robin Kundis; Gosnell, Hannah; Birge, Hannah E; Allen, Craig R; Benson, Melinda H; Morrison, Ryan R; Stone, Mark C; Hamm, Joseph A; Nemec, Kristine; Schlager, Edella; Llewellyn, Dagmar

2017-03-17

In this article we summarize histories of nonlinear, complex interactions among societal, legal, and ecosystem dynamics in six North American water basins, as they respond to changing climate. These case studies were chosen to explore the conditions for emergence of adaptive governance in heavily regulated and developed social-ecological systems nested within a hierarchical governmental system. We summarize resilience assessments conducted in each system to provide a synthesis and reference by the other articles in this special feature. We also present a general framework used to evaluate the interactions between society and ecosystem regimes and the governance regimes chosen to mediate those interactions. The case studies show different ways that adaptive governance may be triggered, facilitated, or constrained by ecological and/or legal processes. The resilience assessments indicate that complex interactions among the governance and ecosystem components of these systems can produce different trajectories, which include patterns of (a) development and stabilization, (b) cycles of crisis and recovery, which includes lurches in adaptation and learning, and (3) periods of innovation, novelty, and transformation. Exploration of cross scale (Panarchy) interactions among levels and sectors of government and society illustrate that they may constrain development trajectories, but may also provide stability during crisis or innovation at smaller scales; create crises, but may also facilitate recovery; and constrain system transformation, but may also provide windows of opportunity in which transformation, and the resources to accomplish it, may occur. The framework is the starting point for our exploration of how law might play a role in enhancing the capacity of social-ecological systems to adapt to climate change.

Regime shifts and panarchies in regional scale social-ecological water systems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gunderson, Lance; Cosens, Barbara; Chaffin, Brian C.; Arnold, Craig Anthony (Tony); Fremier, Alexander K.; Garmestani, Ahjond S.; Kundis Craig, Robin; Gosnell, Hannah; Birge, Hannah E.; Allen, Craig R.; Benson, Melinda H.; Morrison, Ryan R.; Stone, Mark; Hamm, Joseph A.; Nemec, Kristine T.; Schlager, Edella; Llewellyn, Dagmar

2017-01-01

In this article we summarize histories of nonlinear, complex interactions among societal, legal, and ecosystem dynamics in six North American water basins, as they respond to changing climate. These case studies were chosen to explore the conditions for emergence of adaptive governance in heavily regulated and developed social-ecological systems nested within a hierarchical governmental system. We summarize resilience assessments conducted in each system to provide a synthesis and reference by the other articles in this special feature. We also present a general framework used to evaluate the interactions between society and ecosystem regimes and the governance regimes chosen to mediate those interactions. The case studies show different ways that adaptive governance may be triggered, facilitated, or constrained by ecological and/or legal processes. The resilience assessments indicate that complex interactions among the governance and ecosystem components of these systems can produce different trajectories, which include patterns of (a) development and stabilization, (b) cycles of crisis and recovery, which includes lurches in adaptation and learning, and (3) periods of innovation, novelty, and transformation. Exploration of cross scale (Panarchy) interactions among levels and sectors of government and society illustrate that they may constrain development trajectories, but may also provide stability during crisis or innovation at smaller scales; create crises, but may also facilitate recovery; and constrain system transformation, but may also provide windows of opportunity in which transformation, and the resources to accomplish it, may occur. The framework is the starting point for our exploration of how law might play a role in enhancing the capacity of social-ecological systems to adapt to climate change.

From success to persistence: Identifying an evolutionary regime shift in the diverse Paleozoic aquatic arthropod group Eurypterida, driven by the Devonian biotic crisis.

PubMed

Lamsdell, James C; Selden, Paul A

2017-01-01

Mass extinctions have altered the trajectory of evolution a number of times over the Phanerozoic. During these periods of biotic upheaval a different selective regime appears to operate, although it is still unclear whether consistent survivorship rules apply across different extinction events. We compare variations in diversity and disparity across the evolutionary history of a major Paleozoic arthropod group, the Eurypterida. Using these data, we explore the group's transition from a successful, dynamic clade to a stagnant persistent lineage, pinpointing the Devonian as the period during which this evolutionary regime shift occurred. The late Devonian biotic crisis is potentially unique among the "Big Five" mass extinctions in exhibiting a drop in speciation rates rather than an increase in extinction. Our study reveals eurypterids show depressed speciation rates throughout the Devonian but no abnormal peaks in extinction. Loss of morphospace occupation is random across all Paleozoic extinction events; however, differential origination during the Devonian results in a migration and subsequent stagnation of occupied morphospace. This shift appears linked to an ecological transition from euryhaline taxa to freshwater species with low morphological diversity alongside a decrease in endemism. These results demonstrate the importance of the Devonian biotic crisis in reshaping Paleozoic ecosystems. © 2016 The Author(s). Evolution © 2016 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Stochastic spatio-temporal model of coral cover as a function of herbivorous grazers, water quality, and coral demographics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neuhausler, R.; Robinson, M.; Bruna, M.

2017-12-01

Over the last 60 years we have seen an increased amount of ecological regime shifts in tropical coastal zones, from coral reefs to macroalgae dominated states, as a result of natural and anthropogenic stresses. However, these shifts are not always immediate- macroalgae are generally present in coral reefs, with their distribution regulated by herbivorous fish. This is especially true in Moorea, French Polynesia, where macroalgae are shown to flourish in spaces that provide refuge from roaming herbivores. While there are currently modeling efforts in projecting ecological regime shifts in Moorea, temporal deterministic models have been utilized, which fail to capture metastability between multiple steady states and can have issues when dealing with very small populations. To address these concerns, we build on these models to account for spatial variations and individual organisms, as well as stochasticity. Our model can project the percent cover of coral, macroalgae, and algae turf as a function of herbivorous grazers, water quality, and coral demographics. Grazers, included as individual fish (particles), evolve according to a kinetic model and interact with neighbouring benthic assemblages, represented as nodes. Water quality and coral demographics are input parameters that can vary over time, allowing our model to be run for temporally changing scenarios and to be adjusted for different reefs. We plan to engage with previous Moorea Reef Resilience Models through a comparative analysis of our models' outcomes and existing Moorea data. Coupling projective models with available data is useful for informing environmental policy and advancing the modeling field.

Regime, phase and paradigm shifts: making community ecology the basic science for fisheries

PubMed Central

Mangel, Marc; Levin, Phillip S.

2005-01-01

Modern fishery science, which began in 1957 with Beverton and Holt, is ca. 50 years old. At its inception, fishery science was limited by a nineteenth century mechanistic worldview and by computational technology; thus, the relatively simple equations of population ecology became the fundamental ecological science underlying fisheries. The time has come for this to change and for community ecology to become the fundamental ecological science underlying fisheries. This point will be illustrated with two examples. First, when viewed from a community perspective, excess production must be considered in the context of biomass left for predators. We argue that this is a better measure of the effects of fisheries than spawning biomass per recruit. Second, we shall analyse a simple, but still multi-species, model for fishery management that considers the alternatives of harvest regulations, inshore marine protected areas and offshore marine protected areas. Population or community perspectives lead to very different predictions about the efficacy of reserves. PMID:15713590

Ecological impacts of the late Quaternary megaherbivore extinctions.

PubMed

Gill, Jacquelyn L

2014-03-01

As a result of the late Quaternary megafaunal extinctions (50,000-10,000 before present (BP)), most continents today are depauperate of megaherbivores. These extinctions were time-transgressive, size- and taxonomically selective, and were caused by climate change, human hunting, or both. The surviving megaherbivores often act as ecological keystones, which was likely true in the past. In spite of this and extensive research on the causes of the Late Quaternary Extinctions, the long-term ecological consequences of the loss of the Pleistocene megafauna remained unknown until recently, due to difficulties in linking changes in flora and fauna in paleorecords. The quantification of Sporormiella and other dung fungi have recently allowed for explicit tests of the ecological consequences of megafaunal extirpations in the fossil pollen record. In this paper, I review the impacts of the loss of keystone megaherbivores on vegetation in several paleorecords. A growing number of studies support the hypothesis that the loss of the Pleistocene megafauna resulted in cascading effects on plant community composition, vegetation structure and ecosystem function, including increased fire activity, novel communities and shifts in biomes. Holocene biota thus exist outside the broader evolutionary context of the Cenozoic, and the Late Quaternary Extinctions represent a regime shift for surviving plant and animal species.

Towards the use of Structural Loop Analysis to Study System Behaviour of Socio-Ecological Systems.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abram, Joseph; Dyke, James

2016-04-01

Maintaining socio-ecological systems in desirable states is key to developing a growing economy, alleviating poverty and achieving a sustainable future. While the driving forces of an environmental system are often well known, the dynamics impacting these drivers can be hidden within a tangled structure of causal chains and feedback loops. A lack of understanding of a system's dynamic structure and its influence on a system's behaviour can cause unforeseen side-effects during model scenario testing and policy implementation. Structural Loop analysis of socio-ecological system models identifies dominant feedback structures during times of behavioural shift, allowing the user to monitor key influential drivers during model simulation. This work carries out Loop Eigenvalue Elasticity Analysis (LEEA) on three system dynamic models, exploring tipping points in lake systems undergoing eutrophication. The purpose is to explore the potential benefits and limitations of the technique in the field of socio-ecology. The LEEA technique shows promise for socio-ecological systems which undergo regime shifts or express oscillatory trends, but shows limited usefulness with large models. The results of this work highlight changes in feedback loop dominance, years prior to eutrophic tipping events in lake systems. LEEA could be used as an early warning signal to impending system changes, complementary to other known early warning signals. This approach could improve our understanding during critical times of a system's behaviour, changing how we approach model analysis and the way scenario testing and policy implementation are addressed in socio-ecological system models.

Defining tipping points for social-ecological systems scholarship—an interdisciplinary literature review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Milkoreit, Manjana; Hodbod, Jennifer; Baggio, Jacopo; Benessaiah, Karina; Calderón-Contreras, Rafael; Donges, Jonathan F.; Mathias, Jean-Denis; Rocha, Juan Carlos; Schoon, Michael; Werners, Saskia E.

2018-03-01

The term tipping point has experienced explosive popularity across multiple disciplines over the last decade. Research on social-ecological systems (SES) has contributed to the growth and diversity of the term’s use. The diverse uses of the term obscure potential differences between tipping behavior in natural and social systems, and issues of causality across natural and social system components in SES. This paper aims to create the foundation for a discussion within the SES research community about the appropriate use of the term tipping point, especially the relatively novel term ‘social tipping point.’ We review existing literature on tipping points and similar concepts (e.g. regime shifts, critical transitions) across all spheres of science published between 1960 and 2016 with a special focus on a recent and still small body of work on social tipping points. We combine quantitative and qualitative analyses in a bibliometric approach, rooted in an expert elicitation process. We find that the term tipping point became popular after the year 2000—long after the terms regime shift and critical transition—across all spheres of science. We identify 23 distinct features of tipping point definitions and their prevalence across disciplines, but find no clear taxonomy of discipline-specific definitions. Building on the most frequently used features, we propose definitions for tipping points in general and social tipping points in SES in particular.

A palaeo-ecological assessment of the resilience of south-east Asian dry forests to monsoon extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamilton, R. J.; Penny, D.; Maxwell, A.

2014-12-01

Predictions that the frequency and intensity of monsoon extremes will rise in coming decades are being made with increasing confidence. There is concern that these climatic changes may drive tropical monsoon forests across critical thresholds, triggering ecological regime shifts. The global consequences of such shifts, coupled with knowledge gaps around the nature and intensity of drivers needed to instigate ecosystem reorganization, highlights the need for research that analyses the resilience of these seasonal forest to future climatic change. While work has indicated that these forests may be susceptible to reorganization to savanna under changing precipitation regimes, the interactions between climatic drivers and ecosystem response is still poorly understood, particularly in the seasonal forests outside of the neo- and afro-tropics. This study presents results on the threshold dynamics of the extensive south-east Asian seasonally dry tropical forest ecoregion (SASDTF) through analysis of plant microfossils and charcoal archived in sediment cores extracted from two tropical crater lakes in Cambodia. These data are compared with regional paleoclimatic reconstructions to gauge past forest response to monsoon extremes, and provide insight into the magnitude and duration of climatic events most likely to result in the breaching of critical thresholds. Our results suggest that, at a biome level, the SASDTF appears resilient to low-amplitude climatic variations over millennia, despite instrumental observations of strong precipitation-tree cover coupling in global dry forest resilience models.

The Evolution of Energetic Scaling across the Vertebrate Tree of Life.

PubMed

Uyeda, Josef C; Pennell, Matthew W; Miller, Eliot T; Maia, Rafael; McClain, Craig R

2017-08-01

Metabolism is the link between ecology and physiology-it dictates the flow of energy through individuals and across trophic levels. Much of the predictive power of metabolic theories of ecology derives from the scaling relationship between organismal size and metabolic rate. There is growing evidence that this scaling relationship is not universal, but we have little knowledge of how it has evolved over macroevolutionary time. Here we develop a novel phylogenetic comparative method to investigate how often and in which clades the macroevolutionary dynamics of the metabolic scaling have changed. We find strong evidence that the metabolic scaling relationship has shifted multiple times across the vertebrate phylogeny. However, shifts are rare and otherwise strongly constrained. Importantly, both the estimated slope and intercept values vary widely across regimes, with slopes that spanned across theoretically predicted values such as 2/3 or 3/4. We further tested whether traits such as ecto-/endothermy, genome size, and quadratic curvature with body mass (i.e., energetic constraints at extreme body sizes) could explain the observed pattern of shifts. Though these factors help explain some of the variation in scaling parameters, much of the remaining variation remains elusive. Our results lay the groundwork for further exploration of the evolutionary and ecological drivers of major transitions in metabolic strategy and for harnessing this information to improve macroecological predictions.

Fire regime: history and definition of a key concept in disturbance ecology.

PubMed

Krebs, Patrik; Pezzatti, Gianni B; Mazzoleni, Stefano; Talbot, Lee M; Conedera, Marco

2010-06-01

"Fire regime" has become, in recent decades, a key concept in many scientific domains. In spite of its wide spread use, the concept still lacks a clear and wide established definition. Many believe that it was first discussed in a famous report on national park management in the United States, and that it may be simply defined as a selection of a few measurable parameters that summarize the fire occurrence patterns in an area. This view has been uncritically perpetuated in the scientific community in the last decades. In this paper we attempt a historical reconstruction of the origin, the evolution and the current meaning of "fire regime" as a concept. Its roots go back to the 19th century in France and to the first half of the 20th century in French African colonies. The "fire regime" concept took time to evolve and pass from French into English usage and thus to the whole scientific community. This coincided with a paradigm shift in the early 1960s in the United States, where a favourable cultural, social and scientific climate led to the natural role of fires as a major disturbance in ecosystem dynamics becoming fully acknowledged. Today the concept of "fire regime" refers to a collection of several fire-related parameters that may be organized, assembled and used in different ways according to the needs of the users. A structure for the most relevant categories of parameters is proposed, aiming to contribute to a unified concept of "fire regime" that can reconcile the physical nature of fire with the socio-ecological context within which it occurs.

A Novel, Unbiased Analysis Approach for Investigating Population Dynamics: A Case Study on Calanus finmarchicus and Its Decline in the North Sea

PubMed Central

Papworth, Danny J.; Marini, Simone; Conversi, Alessandra

2016-01-01

Marine populations are controlled by a series of drivers, pertaining to both the physical environment and the biological environment (trophic predator-prey interactions). There is heated debate over drivers, especially when trying to understand the causes of major ecosystem events termed regime shifts. In this work, we have researched and developed a novel methodology based on Genetic Programming (GP) for distinguishing which drivers can influence species abundance. This methodology benefits of having no a priori assumptions either on the ecological parameters used or on the underlying mathematical relationships among them. We have validated this methodology applying it to the North Sea pelagic ecosystem. We use the target species Calanus finmarchicus, a key copepod in temperate and subarctic ecosystems, along with 86 biological, hydrographical and climatic time series, ranging from local water nutrients and fish predation, to large scale climate pressure patterns. The chosen study area is the central North Sea, from 1972 to 2011, during which period there was an ecological regime shift. The GP based analysis identified 3 likely drivers of C. finmarchicus abundance, which highlights the importance of considering both physical and trophic drivers: temperature, North Sea circulation (net flow into the North Atlantic), and predation (herring). No large scale climate patterns were selected, suggesting that when there is availability of both data types, local drivers are more important. The results produced by the GP based procedure are consistent with the literature published to date, and validate the use of GP for interpreting species dynamics. We propose that this methodology holds promises for the highly non-linear field of ecology. PMID:27366910

Regime shifts and panarchies in regional scale social ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

In this article we summarize histories of nonlinear, complex interactions among societal, legal, and ecosystem dynamics in six North American water basins, as they respond to changing climate. These case studies were chosen to explore the conditions for emergence of adaptive governance in heavily regulated and developed social-ecological systems nested within a hierarchical governmental system. We summarize resilience assessments conducted in each system to provide a synthesis and reference by the other articles in this special feature. We also present a general framework used to evaluate the interactions between society and ecosystem regimes and the governance regimes chosen to mediate those interactions. The case studies show different ways that adaptive governance may be triggered, facilitated, or constrained by ecological and/or legal processes. The resilience assessments indicate that complex interactions among the governance and ecosystem components of these systems can produce different trajectories, which include patterns of (a) development and stabilization, (b) cycles of crisis and recovery, which includes lurches in adaptation and learning, and (3) periods of innovation, novelty, and transformation. Exploration of cross scale (Panarchy) interactions among levels and sectors of government and society illustrate that they may constrain development trajectories, but may also provide stability during crisis or innovation at smaller scales; create crises,

Effects of flow regime on benthic algae and macroinvertebrates - A comparison between regulated and unregulated rivers.

PubMed

Schneider, Susanne C; Petrin, Zlatko

2017-02-01

Natural fluctuations in flow are important for maintaining the ecological integrity of riverine ecosystems. However, the flow regime of many rivers has been modified. We assessed the impact of water chemistry, habitat and streamflow characteristics on macroinvertebrates and benthic algae, comparing 20 regulated with 20 unregulated sites. Flow regime, calculated from daily averaged discharge over the five years preceding sampling, was generally more stable at regulated sites, with higher relative discharges in winter, lower relative discharges in spring and smaller differences between upper and lower percentiles. However, no consistent differences in benthic algal or macroinvertebrate structural and functional traits occurred between regulated and unregulated sites. When regulated and unregulated sites were pooled, overall flow regime, calculated as principal components of discharge characteristics over the five years preceding sampling, affected macroinvertebrate species assemblages, but not indices used for ecosystem status assessment or functional feeding groups. This indicates that, while species identity shifted with changing flow regime, the exchanged taxa had similar feeding habits. In contrast to macroinvertebrates, overall flow regime did not affect benthic algae. Our results indicate that overall flow regime affected the species pool of macroinvertebrates from which recolonization after extreme events may occur, but not of benthic algae. When individual components of flow regime were analyzed separately, high June (i.e. three months before sampling) flow maxima were associated with low benthic algal taxon richness, presumably due to scouring. Macroinvertebrate taxon richness decreased with lower relative minimum discharges, presumably due to temporary drying of parts of the riverbed. However, recolonization after such extreme events presumably is fast. Generally, macroinvertebrate and benthic algal assemblages were more closely related to water physico-chemical than to hydrological variables. Our results suggest that macroinvertebrate and benthic algal indices commonly used for ecological status assessment are applicable also in regulated rivers. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Kosi Floods 2008: Devastation, Displacement and Migration Experience

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, Prashant; Ahlawat, Monica

2017-04-01

The massive Kosi River floods of August 2008 caused unprecedented loss to lives, livelihoods, infrastructure and property in north-eastern Bihar. The five flood-affected districts (Araria, Madhepura, Purnia, Saharsa and Supaul) are among the poorest districts in India. In 2011, during the last national Census, the total population of the five districts was about 11 million. About 1,000 villages in these five districts were affected and nearly three million people were displaced. Displaced people had to face various kinds of problems like lack of livelihood, loss of house and property, lack of health and hygiene etc. Posts flooding, because of constrained livelihood opportunities, depressed economy, and probability of future flooding event, many families have migrated to other parts of the country. This study was done to find out how displacement as well as migration has affected their lives, how they have coped with it, and what the government response to this disaster was. Both primary as well as secondary data have been used for this study. Secondary data was collected from government offices and websites, news articles and satellite images. Satellite images were used to detect the change in course of river and how much this change in course affected the displacement pattern. For this purpose the satellite images of affected area from an earlier time period and during the floods were taken and their impact was studied. Primary data has been collected through questionnaire and field survey and has been used to understand migration experience of affected population. With the help of these data, the paper analyses the 2008 Kosi flood as a socio-ecological regime shift and explains migration as a societal response to such a shift. Keywords: Floods, Displacement, Satellite Images, Socio-Ecological Regime Shift, Migration

Global regime shift dynamics of catastrophic sea urchin overgrazing

PubMed Central

Ling, S. D.; Scheibling, R. E.; Rassweiler, A.; Johnson, C. R.; Shears, N.; Connell, S. D.; Salomon, A. K.; Norderhaug, K. M.; Pérez-Matus, A.; Hernández, J. C.; Clemente, S.; Blamey, L. K.; Hereu, B.; Ballesteros, E.; Sala, E.; Garrabou, J.; Cebrian, E.; Zabala, M.; Fujita, D.; Johnson, L. E.

2015-01-01

A pronounced, widespread and persistent regime shift among marine ecosystems is observable on temperate rocky reefs as a result of sea urchin overgrazing. Here, we empirically define regime-shift dynamics for this grazing system which transitions between productive macroalgal beds and impoverished urchin barrens. Catastrophic in nature, urchin overgrazing in a well-studied Australian system demonstrates a discontinuous regime shift, which is of particular management concern as recovery of desirable macroalgal beds requires reducing grazers to well below the initial threshold of overgrazing. Generality of this regime-shift dynamic is explored across 13 rocky reef systems (spanning 11 different regions from both hemispheres) by compiling available survey data (totalling 10 901 quadrats surveyed in situ) plus experimental regime-shift responses (observed during a total of 57 in situ manipulations). The emergent and globally coherent pattern shows urchin grazing to cause a discontinuous ‘catastrophic’ regime shift, with hysteresis effect of approximately one order of magnitude in urchin biomass between critical thresholds of overgrazing and recovery. Different life-history traits appear to create asymmetry in the pace of overgrazing versus recovery. Once shifted, strong feedback mechanisms provide resilience for each alternative state thus defining the catastrophic nature of this regime shift. Importantly, human-derived stressors can act to erode resilience of desirable macroalgal beds while strengthening resilience of urchin barrens, thus exacerbating the risk, spatial extent and irreversibility of an unwanted regime shift for marine ecosystems.

Triggers and maintenance of multiple shifts in the state of a natural community

PubMed Central

Schmitt, Russell J.; Holbrook, Sally J.

2010-01-01

Ecological communities can undergo sudden and dramatic shifts between alternative persistent community states. Both ecological prediction and natural resource management rely on understanding the mechanisms that trigger such shifts and maintain each state. Differentiating between potential mechanisms is difficult, however, because shifts are often recognized only in hindsight and many occur on such large spatial scales that manipulative experiments to test their causes are difficult or impossible. Here we use an approach that focuses first on identifying changes in environmental factors that could have triggered a given state change, and second on examining whether these changes were sustained (and thus potentially maintained the new state) or transitory (explaining the shift but not its persistence). We use this approach to evaluate a community shift in which a benthic marine species of filter feeding sea cucumber (Pachythyone rubra) suddenly came to dominate subtidal rocky reefs that had previously supported high abundances of macroalgae, persisted for more than a decade, then abruptly declined. We found that a sustained period without large wave events coincided with the shift to sea cucumber dominance, but that the sea cucumbers persisted even after the end of this low wave period, indicating that different mechanisms maintained the new community. Additionally, the period of sea cucumber dominance occurred when their predators were rare, and increases in the abundance of these predators coincided with the end of sea cucumber dominance. These results underscore the complex nature of regime shifts and illustrate that focusing separately on the causes and maintenance of state change can be a productive first step for analyzing these shifts in a range of systems. PMID:20526781

Dispersal limitation drives successional pathways in Central Siberian forests under current and intensified fire regimes.

PubMed

Tautenhahn, Susanne; Lichstein, Jeremy W; Jung, Martin; Kattge, Jens; Bohlman, Stephanie A; Heilmeier, Hermann; Prokushkin, Anatoly; Kahl, Anja; Wirth, Christian

2016-06-01

Fire is a primary driver of boreal forest dynamics. Intensifying fire regimes due to climate change may cause a shift in boreal forest composition toward reduced dominance of conifers and greater abundance of deciduous hardwoods, with potential biogeochemical and biophysical feedbacks to regional and global climate. This shift has already been observed in some North American boreal forests and has been attributed to changes in site conditions. However, it is unknown if the mechanisms controlling fire-induced changes in deciduous hardwood cover are similar among different boreal forests, which differ in the ecological traits of the dominant tree species. To better understand the consequences of intensifying fire regimes in boreal forests, we studied postfire regeneration in five burns in the Central Siberian dark taiga, a vast but poorly studied boreal region. We combined field measurements, dendrochronological analysis, and seed-source maps derived from high-resolution satellite images to quantify the importance of site conditions (e.g., organic layer depth) vs. seed availability in shaping postfire regeneration. We show that dispersal limitation of evergreen conifers was the main factor determining postfire regeneration composition and density. Site conditions had significant but weaker effects. We used information on postfire regeneration to develop a classification scheme for successional pathways, representing the dominance of deciduous hardwoods vs. evergreen conifers at different successional stages. We estimated the spatial distribution of different successional pathways under alternative fire regime scenarios. Under intensified fire regimes, dispersal limitation of evergreen conifers is predicted to become more severe, primarily due to reduced abundance of surviving seed sources within burned areas. Increased dispersal limitation of evergreen conifers, in turn, is predicted to increase the prevalence of successional pathways dominated by deciduous hardwoods. The likely fire-induced shift toward greater deciduous hardwood cover may affect climate-vegetation feedbacks via surface albedo, Bowen ratio, and carbon cycling. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Ecological diversification associated with the benthic-to-pelagic transition by North American minnows.

PubMed

Burress, E D; Holcomb, J M; Tan, M; Armbruster, J W

2017-03-01

Ecological opportunity is often regarded as a key factor that explains why diversity is unevenly distributed across life. Colonization of novel environments or adaptive zones may promote diversification. North American minnows exhibit an ancestral benthic-to-pelagic habitat shift that coincided with a burst in diversification. Here, we evaluate the phenotypic and ecological implications of this habitat shift by assessing craniofacial and dietary traits among 34 species and testing for morphology-diet covariation, convergence and adaptive optima. There were several instances of morphology-diet covariation such as correlations between mouth angle and the consumption of terrestrial insects and between relative gut length and the consumption of algae. After accounting for size and phylogenetic nonindependence, benthic species had longer heads, longer snouts, eyes positioned higher on their head, smaller mouth angles and longer digestive tracts than pelagic minnows. Benthic minnows also consumed more algae but less terrestrial insects, by volume, than pelagic minnows. Lastly, there were three distinct evolutionary regimes and more convergence in morphology and dietary characteristics than expected under a Brownian motion model of evolution. These findings indicate that colonization of the pelagic zone by minnows involved myriad phenotypic and dietary changes associated with exploitation of terrestrial subsidies. Thus, minnows exhibit phenotype-dietary covariation, an expansion of ecological roles and a burst in diversification rates in response to the ecological opportunity afforded by the colonization of a novel habitat. © 2016 European Society For Evolutionary Biology. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2016 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

Response of the Baltic and North Seas to river runoff from the Baltic watershed - Physical and biological changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hänninen, Jari; Vuorinen, Ilppo; Rajasilta, Marjut; Reid, Philip C.

2015-11-01

Selected Baltic Sea watershed River Runoff (BSRR) events during 1970-2000 were used as predictor in Generalised Linear Mixed Models (GLIMMIX) for evidence of simultaneous changes/chain of events (including possible time lags) in some chemical, physical and biological variables in the Baltic and North Sea ecosystems. Our aim was to explore for climatic-based explanation for ecological regime shifts that were documented semi-simultaneously in both ecosystems. Certain similarities were identified in the North Sea and the Baltic Sea salinity, oxygen concentration, temperature and phyto- and zooplankton parameters. These findings suggest that BSRR events which originate in the Baltic Sea catchment area modify and contribute to large scale ecosystem changes not only in the Baltic Sea, but also in the adjacent parts of the North Sea. However, the Baltic Sea inter-annual and inter-decadal variabilities of physical and biological parameters are driven by direct atmospheric forcing, typically with a relatively short lag. In contrast, such changes in the North Sea are influenced by both local and direct atmospheric forcing, typically with a longer lag than in the Baltic, and a more regional, indirect forcing from changes in the North Atlantic. We suggest that this interactive system partially is behind large scale ecosystem regime shifts found in both Seas. During our study period two such shifts have been identified independently from us in a study earlier in the Southern and Central Baltic in 1980s and 1990s and a later one in 2001/2002 in the North Sea. As a post hoc test we compared the 0+ year class strength of the North Sea herring with BSRR intensity, and found evidence for higher herring production in high BSRR periods, which further corroborates the idea of a remote effect from the large watershed area of the Baltic. Regime shifts as well as their semi-synchronous appearance in two neighbouring sea areas could be identified. GLIMMIX models provide opportunities for determining and understanding the mechanisms behind marine ecosystem long-term and large-scale changes. Many studies have shown the importance of climatic factors (identified by the air pressure index, North Atlantic Oscillation) to the physical and biological changes over the North Atlantic. Our study enlarges the areal and temporal scope of these observations, and provides further support and explanation for climate as the pacemaker for marine ecological changes.

Evaluating species-specific changes in hydrologic regimes: an iterative approach for salmonids in the Greater Yellowstone Area (USA)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Al-Chokhachy, Robert K.; Sepulveda, Adam; Ray, Andrew M.; Thoma, David P.; Tercek, Michael T.

2017-01-01

Despite the importance of hydrologic regimes to the phenology, demography, and abundance of fishes such as salmonids, there have been surprisingly few syntheses that holistically assess regional, species-specific trends in hydrologic regimes within a framework of climate change. Here, we consider hydrologic regimes within the Greater Yellowstone Area in the Rocky Mountains of western North America to evaluate changes in hydrologic metrics anticipated to affect salmonids, a group of fishes with high regional ecological and socioeconomic value. Our analyses assessed trends across different sites and time periods (1930–, 1950–, and 1970–2015) as means to evaluate spatial and temporal shifts. Consistent patterns emerged from our analyses indicating substantial shifts to (1) earlier peak discharge events; (2) reductions of summer minimum streamflows; (3) declines in the duration of river ice; and (4) decreases in total volume of water. We found accelerated trends in hydrologic change for the 1970–2015 period, with an average peak discharge 7.5 days earlier, 27.5% decline in summer minimum streamflows, and a 15.6% decline in the annual total volume of water (1 October–September 30) across sites. We did observe considerable variability in magnitude of change across sites, suggesting different levels of vulnerability to a changing climate. Our analyses provide an iterative means for assessing climate predictions and an important step in identifying the climate resilience of landscapes.

Ecological succession reveals potential signatures of marine–terrestrial transition in salt marsh fungal communities

PubMed Central

Dini-Andreote, Francisco; Pylro, Victor Satler; Baldrian, Petr; van Elsas, Jan Dirk; Salles, Joana Falcão

2016-01-01

Marine-to-terrestrial transition represents one of the most fundamental shifts in microbial life. Understanding the distribution and drivers of soil microbial communities across coastal ecosystems is critical given the roles of microbes in soil biogeochemistry and their multifaceted influence on landscape succession. Here, we studied the fungal community dynamics in a well-established salt marsh chronosequence that spans over a century of ecosystem development. We focussed on providing high-resolution assessments of community composition, diversity and ecophysiological shifts that yielded patterns of ecological succession through soil formation. Notably, despite containing 10- to 100-fold lower fungal internal transcribed spacer abundances, early-successional sites revealed fungal richnesses comparable to those of more mature soils. These newly formed sites also exhibited significant temporal variations in β-diversity that may be attributed to the highly dynamic nature of the system imposed by the tidal regime. The fungal community compositions and ecophysiological assignments changed substantially along the successional gradient, revealing a clear signature of ecological replacement and gradually transforming the environment from a marine into a terrestrial system. Moreover, distance-based linear modelling revealed soil physical structure and organic matter to be the best predictors of the shifts in fungal β-diversity along the chronosequence. Taken together, our study lays the basis for a better understanding of the spatiotemporally determined fungal community dynamics in salt marshes and highlights their ecophysiological traits and adaptation in an evolving ecosystem. PMID:26824176

Ecological succession reveals potential signatures of marine-terrestrial transition in salt marsh fungal communities.

PubMed

Dini-Andreote, Francisco; Pylro, Victor Satler; Baldrian, Petr; van Elsas, Jan Dirk; Salles, Joana Falcão

2016-08-01

Marine-to-terrestrial transition represents one of the most fundamental shifts in microbial life. Understanding the distribution and drivers of soil microbial communities across coastal ecosystems is critical given the roles of microbes in soil biogeochemistry and their multifaceted influence on landscape succession. Here, we studied the fungal community dynamics in a well-established salt marsh chronosequence that spans over a century of ecosystem development. We focussed on providing high-resolution assessments of community composition, diversity and ecophysiological shifts that yielded patterns of ecological succession through soil formation. Notably, despite containing 10- to 100-fold lower fungal internal transcribed spacer abundances, early-successional sites revealed fungal richnesses comparable to those of more mature soils. These newly formed sites also exhibited significant temporal variations in β-diversity that may be attributed to the highly dynamic nature of the system imposed by the tidal regime. The fungal community compositions and ecophysiological assignments changed substantially along the successional gradient, revealing a clear signature of ecological replacement and gradually transforming the environment from a marine into a terrestrial system. Moreover, distance-based linear modelling revealed soil physical structure and organic matter to be the best predictors of the shifts in fungal β-diversity along the chronosequence. Taken together, our study lays the basis for a better understanding of the spatiotemporally determined fungal community dynamics in salt marshes and highlights their ecophysiological traits and adaptation in an evolving ecosystem.

Humans as Agents in the Termination of the African Humid Period

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wright, David K.

2017-01-01

There is great uncertainty over the timing and magnitude of the termination of the African Humid Period (AHP). Spanning from the early to middle Holocene, the AHP was a period of enhanced moisture over most of northern and eastern Africa. However, beginning 8000 years ago the moisture balance shifted due to changing orbital precession and vegetation feedbacks. Some proxy records indicate a rapid transition from wet to dry conditions, while others indicate a more gradual changeover. Heretofore, humans have been viewed as passive agents in the termination of the AHP, responding to changing climatic conditions by adopting animal husbandry and spreading an agricultural lifestyle across the African continent. This paper explores scenarios whereby humans could be viewed as active agents in landscape denudation. During the period when agriculture was adopted in northern Africa, the regions where it was occurring were at the precipice of ecological regime shifts. Pastoralism, in particular, is argued to enhance devegetation and regime shifts in unbalanced ecosystems. Threshold crossing events were documented in the historical records of New Zealand and western North America due to the introduction of livestock. In looking at temporally correlated archaeological and paleoenvironmental records of northern Africa, similar landscape dynamics from the historical precedents are observed: reduction in net primary productivity, homogenization of the flora, transformation of the landscape into a shrub-dominated biozone and increasing xerophylic vegetation overall. Although human agents are not seen as the only forces inducing regime change during the termination of the AHP, their potential role in inducing large-scale landscape change must be properly contextualized against other global occurrences of neolithization.

Ecological regime shifts and changes of lake ecosystem service in a shallow Yangtze lake (Taibai Lake, China) over the past 150 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dong, X.; Xu, M.; Yang, X.

2017-12-01

Shallow lakes provide a range of ecosystem services such as water supply, biodiversity, aquaculture, tourism, shipping and flood regulation. Over recent decades, many lakes have become severely deteriorated due to a coupled natural and human disturbance. Given the limited monitoring records, however, we still have little knowledge on how, when and why those lake experienced ecological status shifts, and how the lake ecosystem service changed. Paleolimnological techniques were widely used in understanding the historical environmental and ecological changes. Here, we chose a typical eutrophic shallow lake, Taibai Lake, and acquired geochemistry proxies, grain size, diatom, cladocera and chironomid from a 210Pb and 137Cs dated sediment core. Document records and monitoring data are also included as important marks of social and environmental change. A T-test based algorithm of STARS reveal at least two ecological shifts, respectively in the 1960s and the 1990s. The sudden shift in the 1960s is supposed to be influenced by a dam and sluice construction in the 1950s and another shift in the 1990s should be a critical transition due to the alternation of ecosystem structure for higher fishery production. Correspondingly, lake ecosystem service (LES) also experienced significant changes. Prior to 1930s, different types of LES kept relatively stable with low values. With the dam construction in the 1960s, the changed hydrological condition led to gradual increases in both regulation and provision service. However, with much effort on fishery and reclamation, the regulation service of the lake decreased, exhibiting a tradeoff among LES. After 1990s, with intense aquaculture, most types of LSE suffered a further decrease. The long-term records exhibited that ecosystem services in primary productivity and biodiversity maintenance increased (synergies) whereas services in water-purification and climate regulating decreased significantly (tradeoffs) since 1950s, when local people are seeking higher desired services by human "modification" on lake ecosystem. By long-term records, temporal perspectives on such dynamic tradeoffs and synergies relationship among various ESs under the context of different types resource utilization over time have significant implications for management initiatives.

Regime shifts driven by dynamic correlations in gene expression noise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharma, Yogita; Dutta, Partha Sharathi

2017-08-01

Gene expression is a noisy process that leads to regime shifts between alternative steady states among individual living cells, inducing phenotypic variability. The effects of white noise on the regime shift in bistable systems have been well characterized, however little is known about such effects of colored noise (noise with nonzero correlation time). Here, we show that noise correlation time, by considering a genetic circuit of autoactivation, can have a significant effect on the regime shift between distinct phenotypic states in gene expression. We demonstrate this theoretically, using stochastic potential, stationary probability density function, and first-passage time based on the Fokker-Planck description, where the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process is used to model colored noise. We find that an increase in noise correlation time in the degradation rate can induce a regime shift from a low to a high protein concentration state and enhance the bistable regime, while an increase in noise correlation time in the basal rate retains the bimodal distribution. We then show how cross-correlated colored noises in basal and degradation rates can induce regime shifts from a low to a high protein concentration state, but reduce the bistable regime. We also validate these results through direct numerical simulations of the stochastic differential equation. In gene expression understanding the causes of regime shift to a harmful phenotype could improve early therapeutic intervention in complex human diseases.

Shifts in river-floodplain relationship reveal the impacts of river regulation: A case study of Dongting Lake in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, Cai; Jia, Yifei; Jing, Lei; Zeng, Qing; Lei, Jialin; Zhang, Shuanghu; Lei, Guangchun; Wen, Li

2018-04-01

Better understanding of the dynamics of hydrological connectivity between river and floodplain is essential for the ecological integrity of river systems. In this study, we proposed a regime-switch modelling (RSM) framework, which integrates change point analysis with dynamic linear regression, to detect and date change points in linear regression, and to quantify the relative importance of natural variations and anthropogenic disturbances. The approach was applied to the long-term hydrological time series to investigate the evolution of river-floodplain relation in Dongting Lake in the last five decades, during which the Yangtze River system experienced unprecedented anthropogenic manipulations. Our results suggested that 1) there were five distinct regimes during which the influence of inflows and local climate on lake water level changed significantly. The detected change points were well corresponding to the major events occurred upon the Yangtze; 2) although the importance of inflows from the Yangtze was greater than that of the tributaries flows over the five regimes, the relative contribution gradually decreased from regime 1 to regime 5. The weakening of hydrological forcing from the Yangtze was mainly attributed to the reduction in channel capacity resulting from sedimentation in the outfalls and water level dropping caused by river bed scour in the mainstream; 3) the effects of local climate was much smaller than these of inflows; and 4) since the operation of The Three Gorges Dam in 2006, the river-floodplain relationship entered a new equilibrium in that all investigated variables changed synchronously in terms of direction and magnitude. The results from this study reveal the mechanisms underlying the alternated inundation regime in Dongting Lake. The identified change points, some of which have not been previously reported, will allow a reappraisal of the current dam and reservoir operation strategies not only for flood/drought risk management but also for the maintenance and restoration of the regional ecological integrity.

FISHER INFORMATION AND DYNAMIC REGIME CHANGES IN ECOLOGICAL SYSTEMS

EPA Science Inventory

Fisher Information and Dynamic Regime Changes in Ecological Systems
Abstract for the 3rd Conference of the International Society for Ecological Informatics
Audrey L. Mayer, Christopher W. Pawlowski, and Heriberto Cabezas

The sustainable nature of particular dynamic...

Detection and Assessment of Ecosystem Regime Shifts from Fisher Information

EPA Science Inventory

Ecosystem regime shifts, which are long-term system reorganizations, have profound implications for sustainability. There is a great need for indicators of regime shifts, particularly methods that are applicable to data from real systems. We have developed a form of Fisher info...

Heteroskedasticity as a leading indicator of desertification in spatially explicit data.

PubMed

Seekell, David A; Dakos, Vasilis

2015-06-01

Regime shifts are abrupt transitions between alternate ecosystem states including desertification in arid regions due to drought or overgrazing. Regime shifts may be preceded by statistical anomalies such as increased autocorrelation, indicating declining resilience and warning of an impending shift. Tests for conditional heteroskedasticity, a type of clustered variance, have proven powerful leading indicators for regime shifts in time series data, but an analogous indicator for spatial data has not been evaluated. A spatial analog for conditional heteroskedasticity might be especially useful in arid environments where spatial interactions are critical in structuring ecosystem pattern and process. We tested the efficacy of a test for spatial heteroskedasticity as a leading indicator of regime shifts with simulated data from spatially extended vegetation models with regular and scale-free patterning. These models simulate shifts from extensive vegetative cover to bare, desert-like conditions. The magnitude of spatial heteroskedasticity increased consistently as the modeled systems approached a regime shift from vegetated to desert state. Relative spatial autocorrelation, spatial heteroskedasticity increased earlier and more consistently. We conclude that tests for spatial heteroskedasticity can contribute to the growing toolbox of early warning indicators for regime shifts analyzed with spatially explicit data.

Anticipating regime shifts in gene expression: The case of an autoactivating positive feedback loop

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharma, Yogita; Dutta, Partha Sharathi; Gupta, A. K.

2016-03-01

Considerable evidence suggests that anticipating sudden shifts from one state to another in bistable dynamical systems is a challenging task; examples include ecosystems, financial markets, and complex diseases. In this paper, we investigate the effects of additive, multiplicative, and cross-correlated stochastic perturbations on determining the regime shifts in a bistable gene regulatory system, which gives rise to two distinct states of low and high concentrations of protein. We obtain the stationary probability density and mean first-passage time of the system. We show that increasing the additive (multiplicative) noise intensity induces a regime shift from a low (high) to a high (low) protein concentration state. However, an increase in the cross-correlation intensity always induces regime shifts from a high to a low protein concentration state. For both bifurcation-induced (often called the tipping point) and noise-induced (called stochastic switching) regime shifts, we further explore the robustness of recently developed critical-down-based early warning signal (EWS) indicators (e.g., rising variance and lag-1 autocorrelation) on our simulated time-series data. We identify that using EWS indicators, prediction of an impending bifurcation-induced regime shift is relatively easier than that of a noise-induced regime shift in the considered system. Moreover, the success of EWS indicators also strongly depends upon the nature of the noise.

Changes in size and trends of North American sea duck populations associated with North Pacific oceanic regime shifts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Flint, Paul L.

2013-01-01

Broad-scale multi-species declines in populations of North American sea ducks for unknown reasons is cause for management concern. Oceanic regime shifts have been associated with rapid changes in ecosystem structure of the North Pacific and Bering Sea. However, relatively little is known about potential effects of these changes in oceanic conditions on marine bird populations at broad scales. I examined changes in North American breeding populations of sea ducks from 1957 to 2011 in relation to potential oceanic regime shifts in the North Pacific in 1977, 1989, and 1998. There was strong support for population-level effects of regime shifts in 1977 and 1989, but little support for an effect of the 1998 shift. The continental-level effects of these regime shifts differed across species groups and time. Based on patterns of sea duck population dynamics associated with regime shifts, it is unclear if the mechanism of change relates to survival or reproduction. Results of this analysis support the hypothesis that population size and trends of North American sea ducks are strongly influenced by oceanic conditions. The perceived population declines appear to have halted >20 years ago, and populations have been relatively stable or increasing since that time. Given these results, we should reasonably expect dramatic changes in sea duck population status and trends with future oceanic regime shifts.

Regime shifts and resilience in China's coastal ecosystems.

PubMed

Zhang, Ke

2016-02-01

Regime shift often results in large, abrupt, and persistent changes in the provision of ecosystem services and can therefore have significant impacts on human wellbeing. Understanding regime shifts has profound implications for ecosystem recovery and management. China's coastal ecosystems have experienced substantial deterioration within the past decades, at a scale and speed the world has never seen before. Yet, information about this coastal ecosystem change from a dynamics perspective is quite limited. In this review, I synthesize existing information on coastal ecosystem regime shifts in China and discuss their interactions and cascading effects. The accumulation of regime shifts in China's coastal ecosystems suggests that the desired system resilience has been profoundly eroded, increasing the potential of abrupt shifts to undesirable states at a larger scale, especially given multiple escalating pressures. Policy and management strategies need to incorporate resilience approaches in order to cope with future challenges and avoid major losses in China's coastal ecosystem services.

An invariability-area relationship sheds new light on the spatial scaling of ecological stability.

PubMed

Wang, Shaopeng; Loreau, Michel; Arnoldi, Jean-Francois; Fang, Jingyun; Rahman, K Abd; Tao, Shengli; de Mazancourt, Claire

2017-05-19

The spatial scaling of stability is key to understanding ecological sustainability across scales and the sensitivity of ecosystems to habitat destruction. Here we propose the invariability-area relationship (IAR) as a novel approach to investigate the spatial scaling of stability. The shape and slope of IAR are largely determined by patterns of spatial synchrony across scales. When synchrony decays exponentially with distance, IARs exhibit three phases, characterized by steeper increases in invariability at both small and large scales. Such triphasic IARs are observed for primary productivity from plot to continental scales. When synchrony decays as a power law with distance, IARs are quasilinear on a log-log scale. Such quasilinear IARs are observed for North American bird biomass at both species and community levels. The IAR provides a quantitative tool to predict the effects of habitat loss on population and ecosystem stability and to detect regime shifts in spatial ecological systems, which are goals of relevance to conservation and policy.

The importance of within-system spatial variation in drivers of marine ecosystem regime shifts

PubMed Central

Fisher, J. A. D.; Casini, M.; Frank, K. T.; Möllmann, C.; Leggett, W. C.; Daskalov, G.

2015-01-01

Comparative analyses of the dynamics of exploited marine ecosystems have led to differing hypotheses regarding the primary causes of observed regime shifts, while many ecosystems have apparently not undergone regime shifts. These varied responses may be partly explained by the decade-old recognition that within-system spatial heterogeneity in key climate and anthropogenic drivers may be important, as recent theoretical examinations have concluded that spatial heterogeneity in environmental characteristics may diminish the tendency for regime shifts. Here, we synthesize recent, empirical within-system spatio-temporal analyses of some temperate and subarctic large marine ecosystems in which regime shifts have (and have not) occurred. Examples from the Baltic Sea, Black Sea, Bengula Current, North Sea, Barents Sea and Eastern Scotian Shelf reveal the largely neglected importance of considering spatial variability in key biotic and abiotic influences and species movements in the context of evaluating and predicting regime shifts. We highlight both the importance of understanding the scale-dependent spatial dynamics of climate influences and key predator–prey interactions to unravel the dynamics of regime shifts, and the utility of spatial downscaling of proposed mechanisms (as evident in the North Sea and Barents Sea) as a means of evaluating hypotheses originally derived from among-system comparisons.

AN INDEX TO DETECT EXTERNALLY-FORCED DYNAMIC REGIME SHIFTS IN ECOSYSTEMS

EPA Science Inventory

The concept of dynamic regimes, and nonlinear shifts between regimes, has gained acceptance and importance in ecosystem research. Regimes in ecosystems are identified as states with characteristic species abundances and abiotic conditions. Ecosystems are maintained in particular ...

The transition between the niche and neutral regimes in ecology

PubMed Central

Fisher, Charles K.; Mehta, Pankaj

2014-01-01

An ongoing debate in ecology concerns the impacts of ecological drift and selection on community assembly. Here, we show that there is a transition in diverse ecological communities between a selection-dominated regime (the niche phase) and a drift-dominated regime (the neutral phase). Simulations and analytic arguments show that the niche phase is favored in communities with large population sizes and relatively constant environments, whereas the neutral phase is favored in communities with small population sizes and fluctuating environments. Our results demonstrate how apparently neutral populations may arise even in communities inhabited by species with varying traits. PMID:25157131

USING FISHER INFORMATION TO DETECT GRADUAL AND RAPID ECOSYSTEM REGIME SHIFTS

EPA Science Inventory

As ecosystems experience perturbations of varying regularity and intensity, they may either remain within the state space neighborhood of the current regime, or "flip" into the neighborhood of a regime with different characteristics. Although the possibility of such regime shifts...

Are aliens threatening European aquatic coastal ecosystems?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reise, Karsten; Olenin, Sergej; Thieltges, David W.

2006-05-01

Inshore waters of European coasts have accumulated a high share of non-indigenous species, where a changeable palaeoenvironment has caused low diversity in indigenous biota. Also strongly transformed modern coastal ecosystems seem to assimilate whatever species have been introduced and tolerate the physical regime. Adding non-native species does not have any directional predetermined effects on recipient coastal ecosystems. The status of being a non-native rather refers to a position in evolutionary history than qualify as an ecological category with distinct and consistent properties. Effects of invaders vary between habitats and with the phase of invasion and also with shifting ambient conditions. Although aliens accelerate change in European coastal biota, we found no evidence that they generally impair biodiversity and ecosystem functioning. More often, invaders expand ecosystem functioning by adding new ecological traits, intensifying existing ones and increasing functional redundancy.

Assessing and managing freshwater ecosystems vulnerable to global change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Angeler, David G.; Allen, Craig R.; Birge, Hannah E.; Drakare, Stina; McKie, Brendan G.; Johnson, Richard K.

2014-01-01

Freshwater ecosystems are important for global biodiversity and provide essential ecosystem services. There is consensus in the scientific literature that freshwater ecosystems are vulnerable to the impacts of environmental change, which may trigger irreversible regime shifts upon which biodiversity and ecosystem services may be lost. There are profound uncertainties regarding the management and assessment of the vulnerability of freshwater ecosystems to environmental change. Quantitative approaches are needed to reduce this uncertainty. We describe available statistical and modeling approaches along with case studies that demonstrate how resilience theory can be applied to aid decision-making in natural resources management. We highlight especially how long-term monitoring efforts combined with ecological theory can provide a novel nexus between ecological impact assessment and management, and the quantification of systemic vulnerability and thus the resilience of ecosystems to environmental change.

Trophic amplification of climate warming

PubMed Central

Kirby, Richard R.; Beaugrand, Gregory

2009-01-01

Ecosystems can alternate suddenly between contrasting persistent states due to internal processes or external drivers. It is important to understand the mechanisms by which these shifts occur, especially in exploited ecosystems. There have been several abrupt marine ecosystem shifts attributed either to fishing, recent climate change or a combination of these two drivers. We show that temperature has been an important driver of the trophodynamics of the North Sea, a heavily fished marine ecosystem, for nearly 50 years and that a recent pronounced change in temperature established a new ecosystem dynamic regime through a series of internal mechanisms. Using an end-to-end ecosystem approach that included primary producers, primary, secondary and tertiary consumers, and detritivores, we found that temperature modified the relationships among species through nonlinearities in the ecosystem involving ecological thresholds and trophic amplifications. Trophic amplification provides an alternative mechanism to positive feedback to drive an ecosystem towards a new dynamic regime, which in this case favours jellyfish in the plankton and decapods and detritivores in the benthos. Although overfishing is often held responsible for marine ecosystem degeneration, temperature can clearly bring about similar effects. Our results are relevant to ecosystem-based fisheries management (EBFM), seen as the way forward to manage exploited marine ecosystems. PMID:19740882

Improving water management practices to reduce nutrient export from rice paddy fields.

PubMed

Zhang, Zhi-Jian; Yao, Ju-Xiang; Wang, Zhao-De; Xu, Xin; Lin, Xian-Yong; Czapar, George F; Zhang, Jian-Ying

2011-01-01

Nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) loss from rice paddy fields represents a significant threat to water quality in China. In this project, three irrigation-drainage regimes were compared, including one conventional irrigation-drainage regime, i.e. continuous submergence regime (CSR), and two improved regimes, i.e. the alternating submergence-nonsubmergence regime (ASNR) and the zero-drainage irrigation technology (ZDIT), to seek cost-effective practices for reducing nutrient loss. The data from these comparisons showed that, excluding the nutrient input from irrigation, the net exports of total N and total P via surface field drainage ranged from -3.93 to 2.39 kg ha and 0.17 to 0.95 g ha(-1) under the CSR operation, respectively, while N loss was -2.46 to -2.23 kg ha(-1) and P export was -0.65 to 0.31 kg ha(-1) under the improved regimes. The intensity of P export was positively correlated to the rate of P application. Reducing the draining frequency or postponing the draining operation would shift the ecological role of the paddy field from a nutrient export source to an interception sink when ASNR or the zero-drainage water management was used. In addition, since the rice yields are being guaranteed at no additional cost, the improved irrigation-drainage operations would have economic as well as environmental benefits.

The interactive effects of press/pulse intensity and duration on regime shifts at multiple scales

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Regime shifts are difficult-to-reverse transitions that occur when an ecosystem reorganizes around a new set of self-reinforcing feedbacks. Regime shifts are predicted to occur when the intensity of some exogenous driver variable, such as temperature, annual harvest rate, or nutrient addition rate, ...

Long-Term Phenological Shifts in Raptor Migration and Climate

PubMed Central

Jaffré, Mikaël; Beaugrand, Grégory; Goberville, Éric; Jiguet, Frédéric; Kjellén, Nils; Troost, Gerard; Dubois, Philippe J.; Leprêtre, Alain; Luczak, Christophe

2013-01-01

Climate change is having a discernible effect on many biological and ecological processes. Among observed changes, modifications in bird phenology have been widely documented. However, most studies have interpreted phenological shifts as gradual biological adjustments in response to the alteration of the thermal regime. Here we analysed a long-term dataset (1980-2010) of short-distance migratory raptors in five European regions. We revealed that the responses of these birds to climate-induced changes in autumn temperatures are abrupt and synchronous at a continental scale. We found that when the temperatures increased, birds delayed their mean passage date of autumn migration. Such delay, in addition to an earlier spring migration, suggests that a significant warming may induce an extension of the breeding-area residence time of migratory raptors, which may eventually lead to residency. PMID:24223888

Social-ecological resilience and geomorphic systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chaffin, Brian C.; Scown, Murray

2018-03-01

Governance of coupled social-ecological systems (SESs) and the underlying geomorphic processes that structure and alter Earth's surface is a key challenge for global sustainability amid the increasing uncertainty and change that defines the Anthropocene. Social-ecological resilience as a concept of scientific inquiry has contributed to new understandings of the dynamics of change in SESs, increasing our ability to contextualize and implement governance in these systems. Often, however, the importance of geomorphic change and geomorphological knowledge is somewhat missing from processes employed to inform SES governance. In this contribution, we argue that geomorphology and social-ecological resilience research should be integrated to improve governance toward sustainability. We first provide definitions of engineering, ecological, community, and social-ecological resilience and then explore the use of these concepts within and alongside geomorphology in the literature. While ecological studies often consider geomorphology as an important factor influencing the resilience of ecosystems and geomorphological studies often consider the engineering resilience of geomorphic systems of interest, very few studies define and employ a social-ecological resilience framing and explicitly link the concept to geomorphic systems. We present five key concepts-scale, feedbacks, state or regime, thresholds and regime shifts, and humans as part of the system-which we believe can help explicitly link important aspects of social-ecological resilience inquiry and geomorphological inquiry in order to strengthen the impact of both lines of research. Finally, we discuss how these five concepts might be used to integrate social-ecological resilience and geomorphology to better understand change in, and inform governance of, SESs. To compound these dynamics of resilience, complex systems are nested and cross-scale interactions from smaller and larger scales relative to the system of interest can play formative roles during periods of collapse and reorganization. Large- and small-scale disturbances as well as large-scale system memory/capacity and small-scale innovation can have significant impacts on the trajectory of a reorganizing system (Gunderson and Holling, 2002; Chaffin and Gunderson, 2016). Attempts to measure the property of ecological resilience across complex systems amounts to attempts to measure the persistence of system-controlling variables, including processes, parameters, and important feedbacks, when the system is exposed to varying degrees of disturbance (Folke, 2016).

Shifts in fisheries management: adapting to regime shifts

PubMed Central

King, Jacquelynne R.; McFarlane, Gordon A.; Punt, André E.

2015-01-01

For many years, fisheries management was based on optimizing yield and maintaining a target biomass, with little regard given to low-frequency environmental forcing. However, this policy was often unsuccessful. In the last two to three decades, fisheries science and management have undergone a shift towards balancing sustainable yield with conservation, with the goal of including ecosystem considerations in decision-making frameworks. Scientific understanding of low-frequency climate–ocean variability, which is manifested as ecosystem regime shifts and states, has led to attempts to incorporate these shifts and states into fisheries assessment and management. To date, operationalizing these attempts to provide tactical advice has met with limited success. We review efforts to incorporate regime shifts and states into the assessment and management of fisheries resources, propose directions for future investigation and outline a potential framework to include regime shifts and changes in ecosystem states into fisheries management.

Prolonged instability prior to a regime shift

USGS Publications Warehouse

Spanbauer, Trisha; Allen, Craig R.; Angeler, David G.; Eason, Tarsha; Fritz, Sherilyn C.; Garmestani, Ahjond S.; Nash, Kirsty L.; Stone, Jeffery R.

2014-01-01

Regime shifts are generally defined as the point of ‘abrupt’ change in the state of a system. However, a seemingly abrupt transition can be the product of a system reorganization that has been ongoing much longer than is evident in statistical analysis of a single component of the system. Using both univariate and multivariate statistical methods, we tested a long-term high-resolution paleoecological dataset with a known change in species assemblage for a regime shift. Analysis of this dataset with Fisher Information and multivariate time series modeling showed that there was a∼2000 year period of instability prior to the regime shift. This period of instability and the subsequent regime shift coincide with regional climate change, indicating that the system is undergoing extrinsic forcing. Paleoecological records offer a unique opportunity to test tools for the detection of thresholds and stable-states, and thus to examine the long-term stability of ecosystems over periods of multiple millennia.

Broad-scale trophic shift in the pelagic North Pacific revealed by an oceanic seabird

PubMed Central

Wiley, Anne E.; James, Helen F.; Rossman, Sam; Walker, William A.; Zipkin, Elise F.; Chikaraishi, Yoshito

2017-01-01

Human-induced ecological change in the open oceans appears to be accelerating. Fisheries, climate change and elevated nutrient inputs are variously blamed, at least in part, for altering oceanic ecosystems. Yet it is challenging to assess the extent of anthropogenic change in the open oceans, where historical records of ecological conditions are sparse, and the geographical scale is immense. We developed millennial-scale amino acid nitrogen isotope records preserved in ancient animal remains to understand changes in food web structure and nutrient regimes in the oceanic realm of the North Pacific Ocean (NPO). Our millennial-scale isotope records of amino acids in bone collagen in a wide-ranging oceanic seabird, the Hawaiian petrel (Pterodroma sandwichensis), showed that trophic level declined over time. The amino acid records do not support a broad-scale increase in nitrogen fixation in the North Pacific subtropical gyre, rejecting an earlier interpretation based on bulk and amino acid specific δ15N chronologies for Hawaiian deep-sea corals and bulk δ15N chronologies for the Hawaiian petrel. Rather, our work suggests that the food web structure in the NPO has shifted at a broad geographical scale, a phenomenon potentially related to industrial fishing. PMID:28356448

Assessing ecological departure from reference conditions with the Fire Regime Condition Class (FRCC) Mapping Tool

Treesearch

Stephen W. Barrett; Thomas DeMeo; Jeffrey L. Jones; J.D. Zeiler; Lee C. Hutter

2006-01-01

Knowledge of ecological departure from a range of reference conditions provides a critical context for managing sustainable ecosystems. Fire Regime Condition Class (FRCC) is a qualitative measure characterizing possible departure from historical fire regimes. The FRCC Mapping Tool was developed as an ArcMap extension utilizing the protocol identified by the Interagency...

Ecological response to climate change and human activities indicated by n-alkane proxy during the mid- to late Holocene: a case study from an alpine lake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, C.; Zhao, C.

2017-12-01

Paleolimonological records provide long-term dynamics information of past climate, environment, human activities and ecological variations and give evolutionary perspectives to understand responses process of ecological shift to internal or external trigger. In this study, a powerful biomarkers, n-alkanes, was used to reconstruct the past 5000 years organic matter sources and ecological evolution history of Beilianchi Lake in the southwestern of Loess Plateau after preliminary investigation of modern samples. Climate-environment change and human activities were also traced by total organic matter (TOC), magnetic susceptibility (MS) and relevant proxies. The results showed that the ecosystem related to organic matter composition in Beilianchi Lake might be mainly controlled by climate change before 1400 cal B.P., whereas after that, it was significantly influenced by soil erosion induced by increasing population and enhanced human activities. Lake ecosystem experienced periodical change from relatively stable stage with combination of allochthonous-autochthonous organic sources prior to 1400 cal B.P. to extremely instability and final return to steady state with allochthonous-dominant organic source since 300 cal B.P.. During the period of instability, organic matter composition during 1400-800 cal B.P. indicated a obvious bimodal distribution based on probability density distribution analysis, which reflected the lake ecosystem might stay at bistable state and switched repeatedly from more-macrophytes state (regime A with low ACL) towards less-macrophytes state (regime B with high ACL) controlled by disturbance of soil erosion. The flickering during this period could serve as the early warning signal of transition towards more-macrophytes state or less-macrophytes state in lake ecosystems.

Can future land use change be usefully predicted?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramankutty, N.; Coomes, O.

2011-12-01

There has been increasing recognition over the last decade that land use and land cover change is an important driver of global environmental change. Consequently, there have been growing efforts to understanding processes of land change from local-to-global scales, and to develop models to predict future changes in the land. However, we believe that such efforts are hampered by limited attention being paid to the critical points of land change. Here, we present a framework for understanding land use change by distinguishing within-regime land-use dynamics from land-use regime shifts. Illustrative historical examples reveal the significance of land-use regime shifts. We further argue that the land-use literature predominantly demonstrates a good understanding (with predictive power) of within-regime dynamics, while understanding of land-use regime shifts is limited to ex post facto explanations with limited predictive capability. The focus of land use change science needs to be redirected toward studying land-use regime shifts if we are to have any hope of making useful future projections. We present a preliminary framework for understanding land-use regime-shifts, using two case studies in Latin America as examples. We finally discuss the implications of our proposal for land change science.

Restoration of Black Oak (Quercus velutina) Sand Barrens via Three Different Habitat Management Approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kriska, David John

Disturbance regimes, i.e. frequent fires, historically maintained oak barrens until European settlement patterns, and eventually, Smoky the Bear and the fire suppression campaign of the U.S. Forest Service snuffed out the periodic flames. In the absence of a disturbance regime, ground layer floral composition at many historical oak sand barrens will change predominantly because of a buildup of leaf litter and shading of the soils. Termed mesophication, this process of ecological succession will drive Black Oak Sand Barrens to an alternate steady state. A survey conducted on Singer Lake Bog in Green, Ohio, demonstrated that succession shifted the community to red maple-black cherry woodlands more typical of a dry southern forest. In an attempt to revive disturbance, three restoration techniques were applied at ten degraded northeast Ohio oak barrens to contrast their effectiveness in restoring black oak sand barren flora. The three restoration treatments were select canopy tree reduction favoring 5% to 30% tree canopy cover, forest floor leaf litter removal, and prescribed fire. Vegetation responses to manipulations were monitored prior to and following treatment applications, and were compared against both baseline data from before-treatment surveys and paired control sites adjacent treated areas. Imposing disturbance successfully increased species diversity and abundance above that found across Singer Lake Bog compared to sampling made prior to and adjacent to treated areas. Select canopy tree removal exhibited the largest floral responses from targeted barrens species, i.e. graminoids. A forest floor invertebrate family (Carabidea: Coleoptera) was measured for species richness and abundance pre and post treatment, where a noticeable shift occurred away from woodland obligate ground beetles toward open grassland species. Replicating oak barren structure, prior to replicating disturbance processes, is the first step in the ecological restoration of these systems.

FISHER INFORMATION AND DYNAMIC REGIME CHANGES IN ECOLOGICAL SYTEMS

EPA Science Inventory

Ecosystems often exhibit transitions between dynamic regimes (or steady states), such as the conversion of oligotrophic to eutrophic conditions and associated aquatic ecological communities, due to natural (or increasingly) anthropogenic disturbances. As ecosystems experience per...

FISHER INFORMATION AND ECOSYSTEM REGIME CHANGES

EPA Science Inventory

Following Fisher’s work, we propose two different expressions for the Fisher Information along with Shannon Information as a means of detecting and assessing shifts between alternative ecosystem regimes. Regime shifts are a consequence of bifurcations in the dynamics of an ecosys...

Effect of infrastructure design on commons dilemmas in social-ecological system dynamics.

PubMed

Yu, David J; Qubbaj, Murad R; Muneepeerakul, Rachata; Anderies, John M; Aggarwal, Rimjhim M

2015-10-27

The use of shared infrastructure to direct natural processes for the benefit of humans has been a central feature of human social organization for millennia. Today, more than ever, people interact with one another and the environment through shared human-made infrastructure (the Internet, transportation, the energy grid, etc.). However, there has been relatively little work on how the design characteristics of shared infrastructure affect the dynamics of social-ecological systems (SESs) and the capacity of groups to solve social dilemmas associated with its provision. Developing such understanding is especially important in the context of global change where design criteria must consider how specific aspects of infrastructure affect the capacity of SESs to maintain vital functions in the face of shocks. Using small-scale irrigated agriculture (the most ancient and ubiquitous example of public infrastructure systems) as a model system, we show that two design features related to scale and the structure of benefit flows can induce fundamental changes in qualitative behavior, i.e., regime shifts. By relating the required maintenance threshold (a design feature related to infrastructure scale) to the incentives facing users under different regimes, our work also provides some general guidance on determinants of robustness of SESs under globalization-related stresses.

Effect of infrastructure design on commons dilemmas in social−ecological system dynamics

PubMed Central

Yu, David J.; Qubbaj, Murad R.; Muneepeerakul, Rachata; Anderies, John M.; Aggarwal, Rimjhim M.

2015-01-01

The use of shared infrastructure to direct natural processes for the benefit of humans has been a central feature of human social organization for millennia. Today, more than ever, people interact with one another and the environment through shared human-made infrastructure (the Internet, transportation, the energy grid, etc.). However, there has been relatively little work on how the design characteristics of shared infrastructure affect the dynamics of social−ecological systems (SESs) and the capacity of groups to solve social dilemmas associated with its provision. Developing such understanding is especially important in the context of global change where design criteria must consider how specific aspects of infrastructure affect the capacity of SESs to maintain vital functions in the face of shocks. Using small-scale irrigated agriculture (the most ancient and ubiquitous example of public infrastructure systems) as a model system, we show that two design features related to scale and the structure of benefit flows can induce fundamental changes in qualitative behavior, i.e., regime shifts. By relating the required maintenance threshold (a design feature related to infrastructure scale) to the incentives facing users under different regimes, our work also provides some general guidance on determinants of robustness of SESs under globalization-related stresses. PMID:26460043

Predicting fluctuations-caused regime shifts in a time delayed dynamics of an invading species

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xie, Qingshuang; Wang, Tonghuan; Zeng, Chunhua; Dong, Xiaohui; Guan, Lin

2018-03-01

In this paper, we investigate early warning signals (EWS) of regime shifts in a density-dependent invading population model with time delay, in which the population density is assumed to be disturbed by intrinsic and extrinsic fluctuations. It is shown that the time delay and noises can cause the regime shifts between low and high population density states. The regime shift time (RST) as a function of noise intensity exhibits a maximum, which identifies the signature of the noise-enhanced stability of the low density state, while the time delay weakens the stability of the low density state. Applying the Kramers time technique, we also discuss the intersection point of the RST between low and high population density states, i.e., a critical point in the RST is found. Therefore, the critical point may give an EWS of regime shifts from one alternative state to another one for the changes in the noise parameters and time delay.

Early signatures of regime shifts in gene expression dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pal, Mainak; Pal, Amit Kumar; Ghosh, Sayantari; Bose, Indrani

2013-06-01

Recently, a large number of studies have been carried out on the early signatures of sudden regime shifts in systems as diverse as ecosystems, financial markets, population biology and complex diseases. The signatures of regime shifts in gene expression dynamics are less systematically investigated. In this paper, we consider sudden regime shifts in the gene expression dynamics described by a fold-bifurcation model involving bistability and hysteresis. We consider two alternative models, models 1 and 2, of competence development in the bacterial population B. subtilis and determine some early signatures of the regime shifts between competence and noncompetence. We use both deterministic and stochastic formalisms for the purpose of our study. The early signatures studied include the critical slowing down as a transition point is approached, rising variance and the lag-1 autocorrelation function, skewness and a ratio of two mean first passage times. Some of the signatures could provide the experimental basis for distinguishing between bistability and excitability as the correct mechanism for the development of competence.

Linking sediment-charcoal records and ecological modeling to understand causes of fire-regime change in boreal forests

Treesearch

Linda B. Brubaker; Philip E. Higuera; T. Scott Rupp; Mark A. Olson; Patricia M. Anderson; Feng Sheng. Hu

2009-01-01

Interactions between vegetation and fire have the potential to overshadow direct effects of climate change on fire regimes in boreal forests of North America. We develop methods to compare sediment-charcoal records with fire regimes simulated by an ecological model, ALFRESCO (Alaskan Frame-based Ecosystem Code) and apply these methods to evaluate potential causes of a...

Organic-matter loading determines regime shifts and alternative states in an aquatic ecosystem.

PubMed

Sirota, Jennie; Baiser, Benjamin; Gotelli, Nicholas J; Ellison, Aaron M

2013-05-07

Slow changes in underlying state variables can lead to "tipping points," rapid transitions between alternative states ("regime shifts") in a wide range of complex systems. Tipping points and regime shifts routinely are documented retrospectively in long time series of observational data. Experimental induction of tipping points and regime shifts is rare, but could lead to new methods for detecting impending tipping points and forestalling regime shifts. By using controlled additions of detrital organic matter (dried, ground arthropod prey), we experimentally induced a shift from aerobic to anaerobic states in a miniature aquatic ecosystem: the self-contained pools that form in leaves of the carnivorous northern pitcher plant, Sarracenia purpurea. In unfed controls, the concentration of dissolved oxygen ([O2]) in all replicates exhibited regular diurnal cycles associated with daytime photosynthesis and nocturnal plant respiration. In low prey-addition treatments, the regular diurnal cycles of [O2] were disrupted, but a regime shift was not detected. In high prey-addition treatments, the variance of the [O2] time series increased until the system tipped from an aerobic to an anaerobic state. In these treatments, replicate [O2] time series predictably crossed a tipping point at ~45 h as [O2] was decoupled from diurnal cycles of photosynthesis and respiration. Increasing organic-matter loading led to predictable changes in [O2] dynamics, with high loading consistently driving the system past a well-defined tipping point. The Sarracenia microecosystem functions as a tractable experimental system in which to explore the forecasting and management of tipping points and alternative regimes.

Managing for resilience: early detection of regime shifts in complex systems

EPA Science Inventory

The goal of sustainability is to maintain a condition or regime of the Earth, which supports human existence from generation to generation. Hence, the ability to detect, characterize, and manage regime shifts, particularly catastrophic ones, is critical to maintaining human sust...

Native American depopulation, reforestation, and fire regimes in the Southwest United States, 1492-1900 CE.

PubMed

Liebmann, Matthew J; Farella, Joshua; Roos, Christopher I; Stack, Adam; Martini, Sarah; Swetnam, Thomas W

2016-02-09

Native American populations declined between 1492 and 1900 CE, instigated by the European colonization of the Americas. However, the magnitude, tempo, and ecological effects of this depopulation remain the source of enduring debates. Recently, scholars have linked indigenous demographic decline, Neotropical reforestation, and shifting fire regimes to global changes in climate, atmosphere, and the Early Anthropocene hypothesis. In light of these studies, we assess these processes in conifer-dominated forests of the Southwest United States. We compare light detection and ranging data, archaeology, dendrochronology, and historical records from the Jemez Province of New Mexico to quantify population losses, establish dates of depopulation events, and determine the extent and timing of forest regrowth and fire regimes between 1492 and 1900. We present a new formula for the estimation of Pueblo population based on architectural remains and apply this formula to 18 archaeological sites in the Jemez Province. A dendrochronological study of remnant wood establishes dates of terminal occupation at these sites. By combining our results with historical records, we report a model of pre- and post-Columbian population dynamics in the Jemez Province. Our results indicate that the indigenous population of the Jemez Province declined by 87% following European colonization but that this reduction occurred nearly a century after initial contact. Depopulation also triggered an increase in the frequency of extensive surface fires between 1640 and 1900. Ultimately, this study illustrates the quality of integrated archaeological and paleoecological data needed to assess the links between Native American population decline and ecological change after European contact.

Native American depopulation, reforestation, and fire regimes in the Southwest United States, 1492–1900 CE

PubMed Central

Liebmann, Matthew J.; Farella, Joshua; Roos, Christopher I.; Stack, Adam; Martini, Sarah

2016-01-01

Native American populations declined between 1492 and 1900 CE, instigated by the European colonization of the Americas. However, the magnitude, tempo, and ecological effects of this depopulation remain the source of enduring debates. Recently, scholars have linked indigenous demographic decline, Neotropical reforestation, and shifting fire regimes to global changes in climate, atmosphere, and the Early Anthropocene hypothesis. In light of these studies, we assess these processes in conifer-dominated forests of the Southwest United States. We compare light detection and ranging data, archaeology, dendrochronology, and historical records from the Jemez Province of New Mexico to quantify population losses, establish dates of depopulation events, and determine the extent and timing of forest regrowth and fire regimes between 1492 and 1900. We present a new formula for the estimation of Pueblo population based on architectural remains and apply this formula to 18 archaeological sites in the Jemez Province. A dendrochronological study of remnant wood establishes dates of terminal occupation at these sites. By combining our results with historical records, we report a model of pre- and post-Columbian population dynamics in the Jemez Province. Our results indicate that the indigenous population of the Jemez Province declined by 87% following European colonization but that this reduction occurred nearly a century after initial contact. Depopulation also triggered an increase in the frequency of extensive surface fires between 1640 and 1900. Ultimately, this study illustrates the quality of integrated archaeological and paleoecological data needed to assess the links between Native American population decline and ecological change after European contact. PMID:26811459

Macroscale hydrologic modeling of ecologically relevant flow metrics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wenger, Seth J.; Luce, Charles H.; Hamlet, Alan F.; Isaak, Daniel J.; Neville, Helen M.

2010-09-01

Stream hydrology strongly affects the structure of aquatic communities. Changes to air temperature and precipitation driven by increased greenhouse gas concentrations are shifting timing and volume of streamflows potentially affecting these communities. The variable infiltration capacity (VIC) macroscale hydrologic model has been employed at regional scales to describe and forecast hydrologic changes but has been calibrated and applied mainly to large rivers. An important question is how well VIC runoff simulations serve to answer questions about hydrologic changes in smaller streams, which are important habitat for many fish species. To answer this question, we aggregated gridded VIC outputs within the drainage basins of 55 streamflow gages in the Pacific Northwest United States and compared modeled hydrographs and summary metrics to observations. For most streams, several ecologically relevant aspects of the hydrologic regime were accurately modeled, including center of flow timing, mean annual and summer flows and frequency of winter floods. Frequencies of high and low flows in the summer were not well predicted, however. Predictions were worse for sites with strong groundwater influence, and some sites showed errors that may result from limitations in the forcing climate data. Higher resolution (1/16th degree) modeling provided small improvements over lower resolution (1/8th degree). Despite some limitations, the VIC model appears capable of representing several ecologically relevant hydrologic characteristics in streams, making it a useful tool for understanding the effects of hydrology in delimiting species distributions and predicting the potential effects of climate shifts on aquatic organisms.

Implications of tristability in pattern-forming ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zelnik, Yuval R.; Gandhi, Punit; Knobloch, Edgar; Meron, Ehud

2018-03-01

Many ecosystems show both self-organized spatial patterns and multistability of possible states. The combination of these two phenomena in different forms has a significant impact on the behavior of ecosystems in changing environments. One notable case is connected to tristability of two distinct uniform states together with patterned states, which has recently been found in model studies of dryland ecosystems. Using a simple model, we determine the extent of tristability in parameter space, explore its effects on the system dynamics, and consider its implications for state transitions or regime shifts. We analyze the bifurcation structure of model solutions that describe uniform states, periodic patterns, and hybrid states between the former two. We map out the parameter space where these states exist, and note how the different states interact with each other. We further focus on two special implications with ecological significance, breakdown of the snaking range and complex fronts. We find that the organization of the hybrid states within a homoclinic snaking structure breaks down as it meets a Maxwell point where simple fronts are stationary. We also discover a new series of complex fronts between the uniform states, each with its own velocity. We conclude with a brief discussion of the significance of these findings for the dynamics of regime shifts and their potential control.

The detection of impending regime shifts from Fisher Information(presentation)

EPA Science Inventory

Resilient systems typically exhibit periodic fluctuations yet are able to withstand perturbations while maintaining functionality. However, it is possible for a system to reach a dynamic threshold and shift to another set of system conditions. These regime shifts have been demon...

Multiscale regime shifts and planetary boundaries.

PubMed

Hughes, Terry P; Carpenter, Stephen; Rockström, Johan; Scheffer, Marten; Walker, Brian

2013-07-01

Life on Earth has repeatedly displayed abrupt and massive changes in the past, and there is no reason to expect that comparable planetary-scale regime shifts will not continue in the future. Different lines of evidence indicate that regime shifts occur when the climate or biosphere transgresses a tipping point. Whether human activities will trigger such a global event in the near future is uncertain, due to critical knowledge gaps. In particular, we lack understanding of how regime shifts propagate across scales, and whether local or regional tipping points can lead to global transitions. The ongoing disruption of ecosystems and climate, combined with unprecedented breakdown of isolation by human migration and trade, highlights the need to operate within safe planetary boundaries. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Distinct zooplankton regime shift patterns across ecoregions of the U.S. Northeast continental shelf Large Marine Ecosystem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morse, R. E.; Friedland, K. D.; Tommasi, D.; Stock, C.; Nye, J.

2017-01-01

We investigated regime shifts in seasonal zooplankton communities of the Northeast continental shelf Large Marine Ecosystem (NES) and its subcomponent ecoregions over a multi-decadal period (1977-2013). Our cross ecoregion analysis shows that regime shifts in different ecoregions often exhibited very distinct characteristics, emphasizing more granular fluctuations in NES plankton communities relative to previous work. Shifts early in the time series generally reflected an increase in abundance levels. The response of zooplankton abundance within fall communities was more similar among ecoregions than for spring communities. The Gulf of Maine exhibited highly distinct patterns from other ecoregions, with regime shifts identified in the early 1980s, early 2000s, and mid-2000s for spring communities. Regime shifts were identified in the early to mid-1990s for the NES, Georges Bank, and the Mid-Atlantic Bight ecoregions, while the fall communities experienced shifts in the early 1990s and late 1980s for the NES and Georges Bank, but in the late 1990s in the Mid-Atlantic Bight. A constrained correspondence analysis of zooplankton community against local and basin-scale climatological indices suggests that water temperature, stratification, and the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) were the predominant factors in driving the zooplankton community composition.

Changes in precipitation regime in the Baltic countries in 1966-2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jaagus, Jaak; Briede, Agrita; Rimkus, Egidijus; Sepp, Mait

2018-01-01

The aim of the study was to analyse trends and regime shifts in time series of monthly, seasonal and annual precipitation in the eastern Baltic countries (Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia) during 1966-2015. Data from 54 stations with nearly homogeneous series were used. The Mann-Kendall test was used for trend analysis and the Rodionov test for the analysis of regime shifts. Rather few statistically significant trends ( p < 0.05) and regime shifts were determined. The highest increase (by approximately 10 mm per decade) was observed in winter precipitation when a significant trend was found at the large majority of stations. For monthly precipitation, increasing trends were detected at many stations in January, February and June. Weak negative trends revealed at few stations in April and September. Annual precipitation has generally increased, but the trend is mostly insignificant. The analysis of regime shifts revealed some significant abrupt changes, the most important of which were upward shifts in winter, in January and February precipitation at many stations since 1990 or in some other years (1989, 1995). A return shift in the time series of February precipitation occurred since 2003. The most significant increase in precipitation was determined in Latvia and the weakest increase in Lithuania.

USING FISHER INFORMATION TO ASSESS THE RISK OF DYNAMIC REGIME CHANGES IN ECOLOGICAL SYSTEMS

EPA Science Inventory

The sustainable nature of particular dynamic regimes of ecosystems is an increasingly integral aspect of many ecological, economic, and social decisions. As ecosystems experience perturbations of varying regularity and intensity, they may either remain within the state space neig...

ECOLOGICALLY-RELEVANT QUANTIFICATION OF STREAMFLOW REGIMES IN WESTERN STREAMS

EPA Science Inventory

This report describes the rationale for and application of a protocol for estimation of ecologically-relevant streamflow metrics that quantify streamflow regime for ungaged sites subject to a range of human impact. The analysis presented here is focused on sites sampled by the U....

Long-term feeding ecology and habitat use in harbour porpoises Phocoena phocoena from Scandinavian waters inferred from trace elements and stable isotopes.

PubMed

Fontaine, Michaël C; Tolley, Krystal A; Siebert, Ursula; Gobert, Sylvie; Lepoint, Gilles; Bouquegneau, Jean-Marie; Das, Krishna

2007-01-17

We investigated the feeding ecology and habitat use of 32 harbour porpoises by-caught in 4 localities along the Scandinavian coast from the North Sea to the Barents Sea using time-integrative markers: stable isotopes (delta13C, delta15N) and trace elements (Zn, Cu, Fe, Se, total Hg and Cd), in relation to habitat characteristics (bathymetry) and geographic position (latitude). Among the trace elements analysed, only Cd, with an oceanic specific food origin, was found to be useful as an ecological tracer. All other trace elements studied were not useful, most likely because of physiological regulation and/or few specific sources in the food web. The delta13C, delta15N signatures and Cd levels were highly correlated with each other, as well as with local bathymetry and geographic position (latitude). Variation in the isotopic ratios indicated a shift in harbour porpoise's feeding habits from pelagic prey species in deep northern waters to more coastal and/or demersal prey in the relatively shallow North Sea and Skagerrak waters. This result is consistent with stomach content analyses found in the literature. This shift was associated with a northward Cd-enrichment which provides further support to the Cd 'anomaly' previously reported in polar waters and suggests that porpoises in deep northern waters include Cd-contaminated prey in their diet, such as oceanic cephalopods. As stable isotopes and Cd provide information in the medium and the long term respectively, the spatial variation found, shows that harbour porpoises experience different ecological regimes during the year along the Scandinavian coasts, adapting their feeding habits to local oceanographic conditions, without performing extensive migration.

The detection and assessment of impending regime shifts from Fisher Information

EPA Science Inventory

Resilient systems typically exhibit periodic fluctuations yet are able to withstand perturbations while maintaining functionality. However, it is possible for a system to reach a dynamic threshold and shift to another set of system conditions. These regime shifts have been demon...

The Role of Social Constructions and Biophysical Attributes of the Environment in Decision-Making in the Context of Biofuels and Rubber Production Partnership Regimes in Upland Philippines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Montefrio, M. F.

2012-12-01

Burgeoning attention in biofuels and natural rubber has spurred interest among governments and private companies in integrating marginalized communities into global commodity markets. Upland farmers from diverse cultural backgrounds and biophysical settings today are deciding whether to agree with partnership proposals from governments and private firms to grow biofuels and natural rubber. In this paper, I examine whether upland farmers' socio-environmental constructions (evaluative beliefs, place satisfaction, and ecological worldviews) and the actual biophysical attributes (land cover and soil types) of upland environments, respectively, function as significant predictors of the intent and decisions of indigenous and non-indigenous farmers to cooperate with government and private actors to establish certain biofuel crops and natural rubber production systems in Palawan, Philippines. Drawing from ethnography and statistical analysis of household surveys, I propose that social constructions and the biophysical attributes of the environment are closely related with each other and in turn both influence individual decision-making behavior in resource-based production partnership regimes. This has significant implications on the resilience of socio-ecological systems, particularly agro-ecosystems, as certain upland farmers prefer to engage in intensive, monocrop production of biofuels and natural rubber on relatively more biodiverse areas, such as secondary forests and traditional shifting cultivation lands. The study aims to advance new institutional theories of resource management, particularly Ostrom's Institutional Analysis and Development and Socio-Ecological Systems frameworks, and scholarship on environmental decision-making in the context of collective action.

Fish assemblage shifts in the Powder River of Wyoming: an unregulated prairie river system previously considered to be relatively pristine.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Senecal, Anna C.; Walters, Annika W.; Hubert, Wayne A.

2016-01-01

Wyoming’s Powder River is considered an example of a pristine prairie river system. While the river hosts a largely native fish assemblage and remains unimpounded over its 1,146-km course to the Yellowstone River confluence, the hydrologic regime has been altered through water diversion for agriculture and natural gas extraction and there has been limited study of fish assemblage structure. We analyzed fish data collected from the mainstem Powder River in Wyoming between 1896 and 2008. Shifts in presence/absence and relative abundance of fish species, as well as fish assemblage composition, were assessed among historical and recent samples. The recent Powder River fish assemblage was characterized by increased relative abundances of sand shiner Notropis stramineus and plains killifish Fundulus zebrinus, and decreases in sturgeon chub Macrhybopsis gelida. Shifts in fish species relative abundance are linked to their reproductive ecology with species with adhesive eggs generally increasing in relative abundance while those with buoyant drifting eggs are decreasing. Assemblage shifts could be the result of landscape level changes, such as the loss of extreme high and low flow events and changing land use practices.

Early detection of ecosystem regime shifts: a multiple method evaluation for management application.

PubMed

Lindegren, Martin; Dakos, Vasilis; Gröger, Joachim P; Gårdmark, Anna; Kornilovs, Georgs; Otto, Saskia A; Möllmann, Christian

2012-01-01

Critical transitions between alternative stable states have been shown to occur across an array of complex systems. While our ability to identify abrupt regime shifts in natural ecosystems has improved, detection of potential early-warning signals previous to such shifts is still very limited. Using real monitoring data of a key ecosystem component, we here apply multiple early-warning indicators in order to assess their ability to forewarn a major ecosystem regime shift in the Central Baltic Sea. We show that some indicators and methods can result in clear early-warning signals, while other methods may have limited utility in ecosystem-based management as they show no or weak potential for early-warning. We therefore propose a multiple method approach for early detection of ecosystem regime shifts in monitoring data that may be useful in informing timely management actions in the face of ecosystem change.

Early Detection of Ecosystem Regime Shifts: A Multiple Method Evaluation for Management Application

PubMed Central

Lindegren, Martin; Dakos, Vasilis; Gröger, Joachim P.; Gårdmark, Anna; Kornilovs, Georgs; Otto, Saskia A.; Möllmann, Christian

2012-01-01

Critical transitions between alternative stable states have been shown to occur across an array of complex systems. While our ability to identify abrupt regime shifts in natural ecosystems has improved, detection of potential early-warning signals previous to such shifts is still very limited. Using real monitoring data of a key ecosystem component, we here apply multiple early-warning indicators in order to assess their ability to forewarn a major ecosystem regime shift in the Central Baltic Sea. We show that some indicators and methods can result in clear early-warning signals, while other methods may have limited utility in ecosystem-based management as they show no or weak potential for early-warning. We therefore propose a multiple method approach for early detection of ecosystem regime shifts in monitoring data that may be useful in informing timely management actions in the face of ecosystem change. PMID:22808007

Rapid Ecological Change in Two Contrasting Lake Ecosystems: Evidence of Threshold Responses, Altered Species Dynamics, and Perturbed Patterns of Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Simpson, G. L.

2015-12-01

Studying threshold responses to environmental change is often made difficult due to the paucity of monitoring data prior to and during change. Progress has been made via theoretical models of regime shifts or experimental manipulation but natural, real world, examples of threshold change are limited and in many cases inconclusive. Lake sediments provide the potential to examine abrupt ecological change by directly observing how species, communities, and biogeochemical proxies responded to environmental perturbation or recorded ecosystem change. These records are not problem-free; age uncertainties, uneven and variable temporal resolution, and time-consuming taxonomic work all act to limit the scope and scale of the data or complicate its analysis. Here I use two annually laminated records 1. Kassjön, a seasonally anoxic mesotrophic lake in N Sweden, and2. Baldeggersee, a nutrient rich, hardwater lake on the central Swiss Plateau to investigate lake ecosystem responses to abrupt environmental change using ideal paleoecological time series. Rapid cooling 2.2kyr ago in northern Sweden significantly perturbed the diatom community of Kassjön. Using wavelet analysis, this amelioration in climate also fundamentally altered patterns of variance in diatom abundances, suppressing cyclicity in species composition that required several hundred years to reestablish. Multivariate wavelet analysis of the record showed marked switching between synchronous and asynchronous species dynamics in response to rapid climatic cooling and subsequent warming. Baldeggersee has experienced a long history of eutrophication and the diatom record has been used as a classic illustration of a regime shift in response to nutrient loading. Time series analysis of the record identified some evidence of a threshold-like response in the diatoms. A stochastic volatility model identified increasing variance in composition prior to the threshold, as predicted from theory, and a switch from compensatory to synchronous species dynamics, concomitant with eutrophication, was observed. These results document in high resolution how two aquatic systems reacted to abrupt change and demonstrate that under ideal conditions sediments can preserve valuable evidence of rapid ecological change.

Non-linear regime shifts in Holocene Asian monsoon variability: potential impacts on cultural change and migratory patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Donges, J. F.; Donner, R. V.; Marwan, N.; Breitenbach, S. F. M.; Rehfeld, K.; Kurths, J.

2015-05-01

The Asian monsoon system is an important tipping element in Earth's climate with a large impact on human societies in the past and present. In light of the potentially severe impacts of present and future anthropogenic climate change on Asian hydrology, it is vital to understand the forcing mechanisms of past climatic regime shifts in the Asian monsoon domain. Here we use novel recurrence network analysis techniques for detecting episodes with pronounced non-linear changes in Holocene Asian monsoon dynamics recorded in speleothems from caves distributed throughout the major branches of the Asian monsoon system. A newly developed multi-proxy methodology explicitly considers dating uncertainties with the COPRA (COnstructing Proxy Records from Age models) approach and allows for detection of continental-scale regime shifts in the complexity of monsoon dynamics. Several epochs are characterised by non-linear regime shifts in Asian monsoon variability, including the periods around 8.5-7.9, 5.7-5.0, 4.1-3.7, and 3.0-2.4 ka BP. The timing of these regime shifts is consistent with known episodes of Holocene rapid climate change (RCC) and high-latitude Bond events. Additionally, we observe a previously rarely reported non-linear regime shift around 7.3 ka BP, a timing that matches the typical 1.0-1.5 ky return intervals of Bond events. A detailed review of previously suggested links between Holocene climatic changes in the Asian monsoon domain and the archaeological record indicates that, in addition to previously considered longer-term changes in mean monsoon intensity and other climatic parameters, regime shifts in monsoon complexity might have played an important role as drivers of migration, pronounced cultural changes, and the collapse of ancient human societies.

Broad-scale trophic shift in the pelagic North Pacific revealed by an oceanic seabird.

PubMed

Ostrom, Peggy H; Wiley, Anne E; James, Helen F; Rossman, Sam; Walker, William A; Zipkin, Elise F; Chikaraishi, Yoshito

2017-03-29

Human-induced ecological change in the open oceans appears to be accelerating. Fisheries, climate change and elevated nutrient inputs are variously blamed, at least in part, for altering oceanic ecosystems. Yet it is challenging to assess the extent of anthropogenic change in the open oceans, where historical records of ecological conditions are sparse, and the geographical scale is immense. We developed millennial-scale amino acid nitrogen isotope records preserved in ancient animal remains to understand changes in food web structure and nutrient regimes in the oceanic realm of the North Pacific Ocean (NPO). Our millennial-scale isotope records of amino acids in bone collagen in a wide-ranging oceanic seabird, the Hawaiian petrel ( Pterodroma sandwichensis ), showed that trophic level declined over time. The amino acid records do not support a broad-scale increase in nitrogen fixation in the North Pacific subtropical gyre, rejecting an earlier interpretation based on bulk and amino acid specific δ 15 N chronologies for Hawaiian deep-sea corals and bulk δ 15 N chronologies for the Hawaiian petrel. Rather, our work suggests that the food web structure in the NPO has shifted at a broad geographical scale, a phenomenon potentially related to industrial fishing. © 2017 The Author(s).

The 3000-4000 cal. BP anthropogenic shift in fire regime in the French Pyrenees.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rius, D.; Vannière, B.; Galop, D.; Richard, H.

2009-04-01

Fire is a key disturbing agent in a wide range of ecosystems: boreal biome (Pitkanen, 2000), Mediterranean area (Colombaroli et al., 2008) as well as temperate European mountain zones (Tinner et al., 1999). During the Holocene, climate may control fire regime by both ignition and fire spread-favouring conditions (i.e. composition, structure and moisture of biomass) whereas man may change charcoal accumulation patterns through type and intensity of agro-pastoral activities. In western and Mediterranean Europe, single sites charcoal analysis recorded the anthropogenic forcing over fire regime broadly between the mid and the late-Holocene. Turner et al (2008) showed that climate and fire had been disconnected since 1700 cal. BP in Turkey. In central Swiss, Mean Fire Interval decreased by two times 2000 years ago due to increasing human impact (Stahli et al., 2006). In Italy, climate and man have had a combined influence on fire-hazard since ca 4000 cal. BP (Vannière et al., 2008). In the Pyrenees Mountains, the linkage between agro-pastoral practices and fire could be dated back to ca 4000-3000 cal. BP with a clear succession of a clearance phase (high fire frequency) followed by a quite linear trend throughout Middle Ages and Modern times corresponding to a change in fire use (Vanniere et al., 2001; Galop et al., 2002, Rius et al., in press). The quantification of fire regimes parameters such as frequency with robust methodological tools (Inferred Fire Frequency, Mean Fire Interval) is needed to understand and characterise such shifts. Here we present two sequences from the Lourdes basin (col d'Ech peat bog) and from the occidental Pyrenees (Gabarn peat bog), which cover the last 9000 years with high temporal resolution. The main goals of this study were to (1) assess control factors of fire regime throughout the lateglacial and Holocene (climate and/or man) on the local scale, (2) evidence the local/regional significance of these control factors , (3) discuss the role of fire in landscape management during the last 3000 years. These fire records emphasizes a shift in fire regime between ca 4000 and 3000 cal BP with similar trends during the last 3000 years (i.e. Mean Fire Interval = 150 years), which appear to be human-driven. However, both Neolithic and Bronze Age periods have different charcoal accumulation patterns suggesting discrepancies between local fire histories and thus different land-use trends and intensity. References Colombaroli D., Vannière B., Chapron E., Magny M. & Tinner W., 2008. Fire-vegetation interactions during the Mesolithic-Neolithic at Lago dell'Accesa, Italy. The Holocene 18: 679-692. Galop, D., Vanniere, B., Fontugne, M., 2002. Human activities and fire history since 4500 BC on the northern slope of the Pyrenees: a record from Cuguron (Central Pyrenees, France). Proceedings of the Second International Meeting of Anthracology, Paris, September 2000, BAR International Series, 43-51. Pitkanen A., 2000. Fire frequency and forest structure at a dry site between Ad 400 and 1110 based on charcoal and pollen records from a laminated lake sediment in eastern Finland. The Holocene 10,2: 221-228. Rius D., Vanniere B. & Galop D., in press. Fire frequency and landscape management in the north-western Pyrenean piedmont (France) since early Neolithic (8000 cal. BP). The Holocene. Stähli, M., Finsinger, W., Tinner, W., Allgower, B., 2006. Wildfire history and fire ecology of the Swiss National Park (Central Alps): new evidence from charcoal, pollen and plant macrofossils. The Holocene 16, 805-817. Tinner, W., Hubschmid, P., Wehrli, M., Ammann, B., Conedera, M., 1999. Long-term forest fire ecology and dynamics in southern Switzerland. Journal of Ecology 87, 273-289. Turner R., Roberts N. & Jones M. D., 2008. Climatic pacing of Mediterranean fire histories from lake sedimentary microcharcoal. Global and Planetary Change 63: 317-324. Vanniere, B., Galop, D., Rendu, C., Davasse, B., 2001. Feu et pratiques agro-pastorales dans les Pyrénées-Orientales : le cas de la montagne d'Enveitg (Cerdagne, Pyrénées-Orientales, France). R.G.P.S.O.,11, 29-42. Vanniere, B., Colombaroli, D., Chapron, E., Leroux, A., Tinner, W., Magny, M., 2008. Climate versus human-driven fire regimes in Mediterranean landscapes : the Holocene record of Lago dell'Accesa (Tuscany, Italy). Quaternary Science Reviews 27, 1181- 1196.

Detecting spatial regimes in ecosystems | Science Inventory ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Research on early warning indicators has generally focused on assessing temporal transitions with limited application of these methods to detecting spatial regimes. Traditional spatial boundary detection procedures that result in ecoregion maps are typically based on ecological potential (i.e. potential vegetation), and often fail to account for ongoing changes due to stressors such as land use change and climate change and their effects on plant and animal communities. We use Fisher information, an information theory based method, on both terrestrial and aquatic animal data (US Breeding Bird Survey and marine zooplankton) to identify ecological boundaries, and compare our results to traditional early warning indicators, conventional ecoregion maps, and multivariate analysis such as nMDS (non-metric Multidimensional Scaling) and cluster analysis. We successfully detect spatial regimes and transitions in both terrestrial and aquatic systems using Fisher information. Furthermore, Fisher information provided explicit spatial information about community change that is absent from other multivariate approaches. Our results suggest that defining spatial regimes based on animal communities may better reflect ecological reality than do traditional ecoregion maps, especially in our current era of rapid and unpredictable ecological change. Use an information theory based method to identify ecological boundaries and compare our results to traditional early warning

Organic-matter loading determines regime shifts and alternative states in an aquatic ecosystem

PubMed Central

Sirota, Jennie; Baiser, Benjamin; Gotelli, Nicholas J.; Ellison, Aaron M.

2013-01-01

Slow changes in underlying state variables can lead to “tipping points,” rapid transitions between alternative states (“regime shifts”) in a wide range of complex systems. Tipping points and regime shifts routinely are documented retrospectively in long time series of observational data. Experimental induction of tipping points and regime shifts is rare, but could lead to new methods for detecting impending tipping points and forestalling regime shifts. By using controlled additions of detrital organic matter (dried, ground arthropod prey), we experimentally induced a shift from aerobic to anaerobic states in a miniature aquatic ecosystem: the self-contained pools that form in leaves of the carnivorous northern pitcher plant, Sarracenia purpurea. In unfed controls, the concentration of dissolved oxygen ([O2]) in all replicates exhibited regular diurnal cycles associated with daytime photosynthesis and nocturnal plant respiration. In low prey-addition treatments, the regular diurnal cycles of [O2] were disrupted, but a regime shift was not detected. In high prey-addition treatments, the variance of the [O2] time series increased until the system tipped from an aerobic to an anaerobic state. In these treatments, replicate [O2] time series predictably crossed a tipping point at ∼45 h as [O2] was decoupled from diurnal cycles of photosynthesis and respiration. Increasing organic-matter loading led to predictable changes in [O2] dynamics, with high loading consistently driving the system past a well-defined tipping point. The Sarracenia microecosystem functions as a tractable experimental system in which to explore the forecasting and management of tipping points and alternative regimes. PMID:23613583

Multiple long-term trends and trend reversals dominate environmental conditions in a man-made freshwater reservoir.

PubMed

Znachor, Petr; Nedoma, Jiří; Hejzlar, Josef; Seďa, Jaromír; Kopáček, Jiří; Boukal, David; Mrkvička, Tomáš

2018-05-15

Man-made reservoirs are common across the world and provide a wide range of ecological services. Environmental conditions in riverine reservoirs are affected by the changing climate, catchment-wide processes and manipulations with the water level, and water abstraction from the reservoir. Long-term trends of environmental conditions in reservoirs thus reflect a wider range of drivers in comparison to lakes, which makes the understanding of reservoir dynamics more challenging. We analysed a 32-year time series of 36 environmental variables characterising weather, land use in the catchment, reservoir hydrochemistry, hydrology and light availability in the small, canyon-shaped Římov Reservoir in the Czech Republic to detect underlying trends, trend reversals and regime shifts. To do so, we fitted linear and piecewise linear regression and a regime shift model to the time series of mean annual values of each variable and to principal components produced by Principal Component Analysis. Models were weighted and ranked using Akaike information criterion and the model selection approach. Most environmental variables exhibited temporal changes that included time-varying trends and trend reversals. For instance, dissolved organic carbon showed a linear increasing trend while nitrate concentration or conductivity exemplified trend reversal. All trend reversals and cessations of temporal trends in reservoir hydrochemistry (except total phosphorus concentrations) occurred in the late 1980s and during 1990s as a consequence of dramatic socioeconomic changes. After a series of heavy rains in the late 1990s, an administrative decision to increase the flood-retention volume of the reservoir resulted in a significant regime shift in reservoir hydraulic conditions in 1999. Our analyses also highlight the utility of the model selection framework, based on relatively simple extensions of linear regression, to describe temporal trends in reservoir characteristics. This approach can provide a solid basis for a better understanding of processes in freshwater reservoirs. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Many shades of green: the dynamic tropical forest–savannah transition zones

PubMed Central

Oliveras, Immaculada; Malhi, Yadvinder

2016-01-01

The forest–savannah transition is the most widespread ecotone in tropical areas, separating two of the most productive terrestrial ecosystems. Here, we review current understanding of the factors that shape this transition, and how it may change under various drivers of local or global change. At broadest scales, the location of the transition is shaped by water availability, mediated strongly at local scales by fire regimes, herbivory pressure and spatial variation in soil properties. The frequently dynamic nature of this transition suggests that forest and savannah can exist as alternative stable states, maintained and separated by fire–grass feedbacks and tree shade–fire suppression feedback. However, this theory is still contested and the relative contributions of the main biotic and abiotic drivers and their interactions are yet not fully understood. These drivers interplay with a wide range of ecological processes and attributes at the global, continental, regional and local scales. The evolutionary history of the biotic and abiotic drivers and processes plays an important role in the current distributions of these transitions as well as in their species composition and ecosystem functioning. This ecotone can be sensitive to shifts in climate and other driving factors, but is also potentially stabilized by negative feedback processes. There is abundant evidence that these transitions are shifting under contemporary global and local changes, but the direction of shift varies according to region. However, it still remains uncertain how these transitions will respond to rapid and multi-faceted ongoing current changes, and how increasing human influence will interact with these shifts. This article is part of the themed issue ‘Tropical grassy biomes: linking ecology, human use and conservation’. PMID:27502373

Identifying hydrological regime and eco-flow threshold of small and medium flood of the Xiaoqing River in Jinan city

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Yang; Cao, Sheng-Le

2017-06-01

It was known that hydrological regime was the main influencing factor of river ecosystem, but the regime of different flow rates of urban rivers was poorly understood. We collected daily inflows at the Huangtai station of the Xiaoqing River from 1960 to 2014 and divided the data into three periods. Then we calculated hydrological parameters by the method of EFCs (Environmental Flow Components) and analyzed the tendency and change rates of each component respectively in the three periods. Combined with the ecological significance of environmental flow components, we identified the small and medium flood had the greatest impact on the river regime and ecosystem. And then we used the hydraulic parameters in the good ecosystem period as control conditions, to calculate the ecological threshold of the flow component under the current situation. This study could provide technical support for restoring and improving hydrological regime and ecological environment of the Xiaoqing River in Jinan city.

Ecological research and management of intermittent rivers: an ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Rivers and streams that do not flow permanently (herein intermittent rivers; IRs) make up a large proportion of the world's inland waters and are gaining widespread attention. We review the research on IRs from its early focus on natural history through to current application in management and policy.The few early studies of the ecology of IRs were largely descriptive. Nevertheless, in the 1970s, synthesis of this sparse research complemented work on temporary standing waters to found a powerful framework for much of the subsequent research on IRs.Research on the ecology and biogeochemistry of IRs continues to fuel our understanding of resistance and resilience to drying and flooding as disturbances. Syntheses of the growing literature, including cross-continental and cross-climate comparisons, are revealing the generality and individuality of ecological and ecosystem responses to flow cessation and surface water loss. Meanwhile, increasing numbers of experiments test the causality of these responses.Much of the increased consideration of IRs in research, management and policy is driven by the observed and projected shifts in flow regimes from perennial to intermittent associated with changes in land and water use and climate, superimposed on the high incidence of natural intermittency. The need to protect and better manage IRs is prompting researchers to develop new or modified methods to monitor flow status and assess the ecological condition of these systems.

Body size distributions signal a regime shift in a lake ecosystem

USGS Publications Warehouse

Spanbauer, Trisha; Allen, Craig R.; Angeler, David G.; Eason, Tarsha; Fritz, Sherilyn C.; Garmestani, Ahjond S.; Nash, Kirsty L.; Stone, Jeffery R.; Stow, Craig A.; Sundstrom, Shana M.

2016-01-01

Communities of organisms, from mammals to microorganisms, have discontinuous distributions of body size. This pattern of size structuring is a conservative trait of community organization and is a product of processes that occur at multiple spatial and temporal scales. In this study, we assessed whether body size patterns serve as an indicator of a threshold between alternative regimes. Over the past 7000 years, the biological communities of Foy Lake (Montana, USA) have undergone a major regime shift owing to climate change. We used a palaeoecological record of diatom communities to estimate diatom sizes, and then analysed the discontinuous distribution of organism sizes over time. We used Bayesian classification and regression tree models to determine that all time intervals exhibited aggregations of sizes separated by gaps in the distribution and found a significant change in diatom body size distributions approximately 150 years before the identified ecosystem regime shift. We suggest that discontinuity analysis is a useful addition to the suite of tools for the detection of early warning signals of regime shifts.

[Landscape structure and ecological coupling analysis of ecotone on the west Sonnen Plain].

PubMed

Song, Changchun; Deng, Wei; Song, Xinshan

2003-09-01

Ecotone is a special zone in the landscape, which is very susceptive to the changes in environmental conditions, and hence, is prone to the disturbance by unfavorable conditions. Human activity has a series of positive and negative effects on it, and greatly changes the geo-chemical process in the ecosystem. In the ecosystem, especially in the ecotone, different systems and regimes are interconnected and inter-determined. For the sustainable development of ecosystem and the protection and rational utilization of resources, it is of great importance to study this internal relationship and to seek rational regulation and control measures. With the ecotone in the west Songnen Plain as an example, and based on the studies of the topography, physiognomy, soil, vegetation, and their geographic distribution in the ecotone., this paper explained the structure of the ecological landscape, and quantitatively analyzed the ecological geo-chemical processes under different landscape conditions. In addition, this paper also tried to make coupling analyses to the ecologic succession and the landscape geo-chemical environment. Under current conditions, the succession of plant communities and the shift of soil landscape geo-chemical conditions in the west Songnen Plain are almost co-instantaneous, and these two factors can inter-determined under certain conditions.

Detecting spatial regimes in ecosystems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sundstrom, Shana M.; Eason, Tarsha; Nelson, R. John; Angeler, David G.; Barichievy, Chris; Garmestani, Ahjond S.; Graham, Nicholas A.J.; Granholm, Dean; Gunderson, Lance; Knutson, Melinda; Nash, Kirsty L.; Spanbauer, Trisha; Stow, Craig A.; Allen, Craig R.

2017-01-01

Research on early warning indicators has generally focused on assessing temporal transitions with limited application of these methods to detecting spatial regimes. Traditional spatial boundary detection procedures that result in ecoregion maps are typically based on ecological potential (i.e. potential vegetation), and often fail to account for ongoing changes due to stressors such as land use change and climate change and their effects on plant and animal communities. We use Fisher information, an information theory-based method, on both terrestrial and aquatic animal data (U.S. Breeding Bird Survey and marine zooplankton) to identify ecological boundaries, and compare our results to traditional early warning indicators, conventional ecoregion maps and multivariate analyses such as nMDS and cluster analysis. We successfully detected spatial regimes and transitions in both terrestrial and aquatic systems using Fisher information. Furthermore, Fisher information provided explicit spatial information about community change that is absent from other multivariate approaches. Our results suggest that defining spatial regimes based on animal communities may better reflect ecological reality than do traditional ecoregion maps, especially in our current era of rapid and unpredictable ecological change.

Impacts of extensive driftnet fishery and late 1990s climate regime shift on dominant epipelagic nekton in the Transition Region and Subtropical Frontal Zone: Implications for fishery management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ichii, T.; Nishikawa, H.; Igarashi, H.; Okamura, H.; Mahapatra, K.; Sakai, M.; Wakabayashi, T.; Inagake, D.; Okada, Y.

2017-01-01

We investigated the impacts of extensive anthropogenic (high seas driftnet squid fishery) and natural (late 1990s major climate regime shift) events on dominant epipelagic fish, squid, and shark in the central North Pacific Transition Region based on a driftnet survey covering the years 1979-2006. Fishing was conducted by Japan, Korea and Taiwan to target neon flying squid in the period 1979-1992, resulting in a decline in stocks of the target species and non-target species (Pacific pomfret and juvenile blue shark), which were by-catch of this fishery. The catch was found to be at the maximum sustainable yield (MSY) level for neon flying squid, the underfished level for juvenile blue shark, but the overfished level for Pacific pomfret. The MSY of Pacific pomfret indicated that this species is more susceptible to exploitation than previously considered. In response to the late 1990s regime shift, neon flying squid and Pacific saury showed low stock levels in 1999-2002 and 1998-2002, respectively, as a result of reduced productivity in their nursery grounds (the Subtropical Frontal Zone and Kuroshio Extension Bifurcation Region, respectively). On the other hand, Pacific pomfret showed no decreasing trend in stock during the low- and intermediate-productivity regimes because of the high productivity of their main spawning/nursery ground (Transition Zone Chlorophyll Front), which was independent of the regime shifts. Thus, squid and saury appear to be more susceptible to the regime shift than pomfret. We discuss the implications for stock management of the species-specific responses to the fishery and the regime shift.

Poverty alleviation strategies in eastern China lead to critical ecological dynamics.

PubMed

Zhang, Ke; Dearing, John A; Dawson, Terence P; Dong, Xuhui; Yang, Xiangdong; Zhang, Weiguo

2015-02-15

Poverty alleviation linked to agricultural intensification has been achieved in many regions but there is often only limited understanding of the impacts on ecological dynamics. A central need is to observe long term changes in regulating and supporting services as the basis for assessing the likelihood of sustainable agriculture or ecological collapse. We show how the analyses of 55 time-series of social, economic and ecological conditions can provide an evolutionary perspective for the modern Lower Yangtze River Basin region since the 1950s with powerful insights about the sustainability of modern ecosystem services. Increasing trends in provisioning ecosystem services within the region over the past 60 years reflect economic growth and successful poverty alleviation but are paralleled by steep losses in a range of regulating ecosystem services mainly since the 1980s. Increasing connectedness across the social and ecological domains after 1985 points to a greater uniformity in the drivers of the rural economy. Regime shifts and heightened levels of variability since the 1970s in local ecosystem services indicate progressive loss of resilience across the region. Of special concern are water quality services that have already passed critical transitions in several areas. Viewed collectively, our results suggest that the regional social-ecological system passed a tipping point in the late 1970s and is now in a transient phase heading towards a new steady state. However, the long-term relationship between economic growth and ecological degradation shows no sign of decoupling as demanded by the need to reverse an unsustainable trajectory. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Migrating Seals on Shifting Sands: Testing Alternate Hypotheses for Holocene Ecological and Cultural Change on the California Coast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koch, P. L.; Newsome, S. D.; Gifford-Gonzalez, D.

2001-12-01

The coast of California presented Holocene humans with a diverse set of ecosystems and geomorphic features, from large islands off a semi-desert mainland in the south, to a mix of sandy and rocky beaches abutting grassland and oak forest in central California, to a rocky coast hugged by dense coniferous forest in the north. Theories explaining trends in human resource use, settlement patterns, and demography are equally diverse, but can be categorized as 1) driven by diffusion of technological innovations from outside the region, 2) driven by population growth leading to more intensive extraction of resources, or 3) driven by climatic factors that affect the resource base. With respect to climatic shifts, attention has focused on a possible regime shift ca. 5500 BP, following peak Holocene warming, and on evidence for massive droughts and a drop in marine productivity ca. 1000 BP. While evidence for a coincidence between climatic, cultural, and ecological change is present, albeit complex, in southern California, similar data are largely lacking from central and northern California. We are using isotopic and archaeofaunal analysis to test ideas for ecological and cultural change in central California. Three features of the archaeological record are relevant. First, overall use of marine resources by coastal communities declined after 1000 BP. Second, northern fur seals, which are common in earlier sites, drop in abundance relative to remaining marine animals. We have previously established that Holocene humans in central California were hunting gregariously-breeding northern fur seals from mainland rookeries. These seals breed exclusively on offshore islands today, typically at high latitudes. Their restriction to these isolated sites today may be a response to human overexploitation of their mainland rookeries prehistorically. Finally, collection of oxygen and carbon isotope data from mussels at the archaeological sites, while still in a preliminary phase, has uncovered no evidence for a conspicuous change in near shore marine temperature or productivity coincident with the loss of fur seals and the shift to use of terrestrial resources.

The Regime Shift Associated with the 2004–2008 US Housing Market Bubble

PubMed Central

Cheong, Siew Ann

2016-01-01

The Subprime Bubble preceding the Subprime Crisis of 2008 was fueled by risky lending practices, manifesting in the form of a large abrupt increase in the proportion of subprime mortgages issued in the US. This event also coincided with critical slowing down signals associated with instability, which served as evidence of a regime shift or phase transition in the US housing market. Here, we show that the US housing market underwent a regime shift between alternate stable states consistent with the observed critical slowing down signals. We modeled this regime shift on a universal transition path and validated the model by estimating when the bubble burst. Additionally, this model reveals loose monetary policy to be a plausible cause of the phase transition, implying that the bubble might have been deflatable by a timely tightening of monetary policy. PMID:27583633

Regime shifts in desert grasslands: patterns, mechanisms, and management

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Transitions from semiarid grassland to shrubland states are among the most widely recognized examples of regime shifts in terrestrial ecosystems. Nonetheless, the processes causing grassland-shrubland transitions, and their consequences, are incompletely understood. We challenge several misconceptio...

Ecological regime shift drives declining growth rates of sea turtles throughout the West Atlantic

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bjorndal, Karen A.; Bolten, Alan B.; Chaloupka, Milani; Saba, Vincent S.; Bellini, Cláudio; Marcovaldi, Maria A.G.; Santos, Armando J.B.; Bortolon, Luis Felipe Wurdig; Meylan, Anne B.; Meylan, Peter A.; Gray, Jennifer; Hardy, Robert; Brost, Beth; Bresette, Michael; Gorham, Jonathan C.; Connett, Stephen; Crouchley, Barbara Van Sciver; Dawson, Mike; Hayes, Deborah; Diez, Carlos E.; van Dam, Robert P.; Willis, Sue; Nava, Mabel; Hart, Kristen M.; Cherkiss, Michael S.; Crowder, Andrew; Pollock, Clayton; Hillis-Starr, Zandy; Muñoz Tenería, Fernando A.; Herrera-Pavón, Roberto; Labrada-Martagón, Vanessa; Lorences, Armando; Negrete-Philippe, Ana; Lamont, Margaret M.; Foley, Allen M.; Bailey, Rhonda; Carthy, Raymond R.; Scarpino, Russell; McMichael, Erin; Provancha, Jane A.; Brooks, Annabelle; Jardim, Adriana; López-Mendilaharsu, Milagros; González-Paredes, Daniel; Estrades, Andrés; Fallabrino, Alejandro; Martínez-Souza, Gustavo; Vélez-Rubio, Gabriela M.; Boulon, Ralf H.; Collazo, Jaime; Wershoven, Robert; Hernández, Vicente Guzmán; Stringell, Thomas B.; Sanghera, Amdeep; Richardson, Peter B.; Broderick, Annette C.; Phillips, Quinton; Calosso, Marta C.; Claydon, John A.B.; Metz, Tasha L.; Gordon, Amanda L.; Landry, Andre M.; Shaver, Donna J.; Blumenthal, Janice; Collyer, Lucy; Godley, Brendan J.; McGowan, Andrew; Witt, Matthew J.; Campbell, Cathi L.; Lagueux, Cynthia J.; Bethel, Thomas L.; Kenyon, Lory

2017-01-01

Somatic growth is an integrated, individual-based response to environmental conditions, especially in ectotherms. Growth dynamics of large, mobile animals are particularly useful as bio-indicators of environmental change at regional scales. We assembled growth rate data from throughout the West Atlantic for green turtles, Chelonia mydas, which are long-lived, highly migratory, primarily herbivorous mega-consumers that may migrate over hundreds to thousands of kilometers. Our dataset, the largest ever compiled for sea turtles, has 9690 growth increments from 30 sites from Bermuda to Uruguay from 1973 to 2015. Using generalized additive mixed models, we evaluated covariates that could affect growth rates; body size, diet, and year have significant effects on growth. Growth increases in early years until 1999, then declines by 26% to 2015. The temporal (year) effect is of particular interest because two carnivorous species of sea turtles – hawksbills, Eretmochelys imbricata, and loggerheads, Caretta caretta – exhibited similar significant declines in growth rates starting in 1997 in the West Atlantic, based on previous studies. These synchronous declines in productivity among three sea turtle species across a trophic spectrum provide strong evidence that an ecological regime shift (ERS) in the Atlantic is driving growth dynamics. The ERS resulted from a synergy of the 1997/1998 El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) – the strongest on record – combined with an unprecedented warming rate over the last two to three decades. Further support is provided by the strong correlations between annualized mean growth rates of green turtles and both sea surface temperatures (SST) in the West Atlantic for years of declining growth rates (r = -0.94) and the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) for all years (r = 0.74). Granger-causality analysis also supports the latter finding. We discuss multiple stressors that could reinforce and prolong the effect of the ERS. This study demonstrates the importance of region-wide collaborations.

Ecological regime shift drives declining growth rates of sea turtles throughout the West Atlantic.

PubMed

Bjorndal, Karen A; Bolten, Alan B; Chaloupka, Milani; Saba, Vincent S; Bellini, Cláudio; Marcovaldi, Maria A G; Santos, Armando J B; Bortolon, Luis Felipe Wurdig; Meylan, Anne B; Meylan, Peter A; Gray, Jennifer; Hardy, Robert; Brost, Beth; Bresette, Michael; Gorham, Jonathan C; Connett, Stephen; Crouchley, Barbara Van Sciver; Dawson, Mike; Hayes, Deborah; Diez, Carlos E; van Dam, Robert P; Willis, Sue; Nava, Mabel; Hart, Kristen M; Cherkiss, Michael S; Crowder, Andrew G; Pollock, Clayton; Hillis-Starr, Zandy; Muñoz Tenería, Fernando A; Herrera-Pavón, Roberto; Labrada-Martagón, Vanessa; Lorences, Armando; Negrete-Philippe, Ana; Lamont, Margaret M; Foley, Allen M; Bailey, Rhonda; Carthy, Raymond R; Scarpino, Russell; McMichael, Erin; Provancha, Jane A; Brooks, Annabelle; Jardim, Adriana; López-Mendilaharsu, Milagros; González-Paredes, Daniel; Estrades, Andrés; Fallabrino, Alejandro; Martínez-Souza, Gustavo; Vélez-Rubio, Gabriela M; Boulon, Ralf H; Collazo, Jaime A; Wershoven, Robert; Guzmán Hernández, Vicente; Stringell, Thomas B; Sanghera, Amdeep; Richardson, Peter B; Broderick, Annette C; Phillips, Quinton; Calosso, Marta; Claydon, John A B; Metz, Tasha L; Gordon, Amanda L; Landry, Andre M; Shaver, Donna J; Blumenthal, Janice; Collyer, Lucy; Godley, Brendan J; McGowan, Andrew; Witt, Matthew J; Campbell, Cathi L; Lagueux, Cynthia J; Bethel, Thomas L; Kenyon, Lory

2017-11-01

Somatic growth is an integrated, individual-based response to environmental conditions, especially in ectotherms. Growth dynamics of large, mobile animals are particularly useful as bio-indicators of environmental change at regional scales. We assembled growth rate data from throughout the West Atlantic for green turtles, Chelonia mydas, which are long-lived, highly migratory, primarily herbivorous mega-consumers that may migrate over hundreds to thousands of kilometers. Our dataset, the largest ever compiled for sea turtles, has 9690 growth increments from 30 sites from Bermuda to Uruguay from 1973 to 2015. Using generalized additive mixed models, we evaluated covariates that could affect growth rates; body size, diet, and year have significant effects on growth. Growth increases in early years until 1999, then declines by 26% to 2015. The temporal (year) effect is of particular interest because two carnivorous species of sea turtles-hawksbills, Eretmochelys imbricata, and loggerheads, Caretta caretta-exhibited similar significant declines in growth rates starting in 1997 in the West Atlantic, based on previous studies. These synchronous declines in productivity among three sea turtle species across a trophic spectrum provide strong evidence that an ecological regime shift (ERS) in the Atlantic is driving growth dynamics. The ERS resulted from a synergy of the 1997/1998 El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-the strongest on record-combined with an unprecedented warming rate over the last two to three decades. Further support is provided by the strong correlations between annualized mean growth rates of green turtles and both sea surface temperatures (SST) in the West Atlantic for years of declining growth rates (r = -.94) and the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) for all years (r = .74). Granger-causality analysis also supports the latter finding. We discuss multiple stressors that could reinforce and prolong the effect of the ERS. This study demonstrates the importance of region-wide collaborations. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Longer growing seasons shift grassland vegetation towards more-productive species

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fridley, Jason D.; Lynn, Josh S.; Grime, J. P.; Askew, A. P.

2016-09-01

Despite advances in plant functional ecology that provide a framework for predicting the responses of vegetation to environmental change, links between plant functional strategies and elevated temperatures are poorly understood. Here, we analyse the response of a species-rich grassland in northern England to two decades of temperature and rainfall manipulations in the context of the functional attributes of 21 coexisting species that represent a large array of resource-use strategies. Three principal traits, including body size (canopy height), tissue investment (leaf construction cost), and seed size, varied independently across species and reflect tradeoffs associated with competitiveness, stress tolerance, and colonization ability. Unlike past studies, our results reveal a strong association between functional traits and temperature regime; species favoured by extended growing seasons have taller canopies and faster assimilation rates, which has come at the expense of those species of high tissue investment. This trait-warming association was three times higher in deep soils, suggesting species shifts have been strongly mediated by competition. In contrast, vegetation shifts from rainfall manipulations have been associated only with tissue investment. Functional shifts towards faster growing species in response to warming may be responsible for a marginal increase in productivity in a system that was assumed to be nutrient-limited.

Identifying multiple coral reef regimes and their drivers across the Hawaiian archipelago

PubMed Central

Jouffray, Jean-Baptiste; Nyström, Magnus; Norström, Albert V.; Williams, Ivor D.; Wedding, Lisa M.; Kittinger, John N.; Williams, Gareth J.

2015-01-01

Loss of coral reef resilience can lead to dramatic changes in benthic structure, often called regime shifts, which significantly alter ecosystem processes and functioning. In the face of global change and increasing direct human impacts, there is an urgent need to anticipate and prevent undesirable regime shifts and, conversely, to reverse shifts in already degraded reef systems. Such challenges require a better understanding of the human and natural drivers that support or undermine different reef regimes. The Hawaiian archipelago extends across a wide gradient of natural and anthropogenic conditions and provides us a unique opportunity to investigate the relationships between multiple reef regimes, their dynamics and potential drivers. We applied a combination of exploratory ordination methods and inferential statistics to one of the most comprehensive coral reef datasets available in order to detect, visualize and define potential multiple ecosystem regimes. This study demonstrates the existence of three distinct reef regimes dominated by hard corals, turf algae or macroalgae. Results from boosted regression trees show nonlinear patterns among predictors that help to explain the occurrence of these regimes, and highlight herbivore biomass as the key driver in addition to effluent, latitude and depth.

Numerical investigation of frequency spectrum in the Hasegawa-Wakatani model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kim, Juhyung; Terry, P. W.

2013-10-15

The wavenumber-frequency spectrum of the two-dimensional Hasegawa-Wakatani model is investigated in the hydrodynamic, intermediate, and adiabatic regimes. A nonlinear frequency and a line width related to energy transfer properties provide a measure of the average frequency and spectral broadening, respectively. In the adiabatic regime, narrow spectra, typical of wave turbulence, are observed with a nonlinear frequency shift in the electron drift direction. In the hydrodynamic regime, broad spectra with almost zero nonlinear frequencies are observed. Nonlinear frequency shifts are shown to be related to nonlinear energy transfer by vorticity advection through the high frequency region of the spectrum. In themore » intermediate regime, the nonlinear frequency shift for density fluctuations is observed to be weaker than that of electrostatic potential fluctuations. The weaker frequency shift of the density fluctuations is due to nonlinear density advection, which favors energy transfer in the low frequency range. Both the nonlinear frequency and the spectral width increase with poloidal wavenumber k{sub y}. In addition, in the adiabatic regime where the nonlinear interactions manifest themselves in the nonlinear frequency shift, the cross-phase between the density and potential fluctuations is observed to match a linear relation, but only if the linear response of the linearly stable eigenmode branch is included. Implications of these numerical observations are discussed.« less

Globalization, marine regime shifts and the Soviet Union

PubMed Central

Österblom, Henrik; Folke, Carl

2015-01-01

Regime shifts have been observed in marine ecosystems around the world, with climate and fishing suggested as major drivers of such shifts. The global and regional dynamics of the climate system have been studied in this context, and efforts to develop an analogous understanding of fishing activities are developing. Here, we investigate the timing of pelagic marine regime shifts in relation to the emergence of regional and global fishing activities of the Soviet Union. Our investigation of official catch statistics reflects that the Soviet Union was a major fishing actor in all large marine ecosystems where regime shifts have been documented, including in ecosystems where overfishing has been established as a key driver of these changes (in the Baltic and Black Seas and the Scotian Shelf). Globalization of Soviet Union fishing activities pushed exploitation to radically new levels and triggered regional and global governance responses for improved management. Since then, exploitation levels have remained and increased with new actors involved. Based on our exploratory work, we propose that a deeper understanding of the role of global fishing actors is central for improved management of marine ecosystems.

Niche dimensions in fishes: an integrative view.

PubMed

Pörtner, H O; Schulte, P M; Wood, C M; Schiemer, F

2010-01-01

Current shifts in ecosystem composition and function emphasize the need for an understanding of the links between environmental factors and organism fitness and tolerance. The examples discussed here illustrate how recent progress in the field of comparative physiology may provide a better mechanistic understanding of the ecological concepts of the fundamental and realized niches and thus provide insights into the impacts of anthropogenic disturbance. Here we argue that, as a link between physiological and ecological indicators of organismal performance, the mechanisms shaping aerobic scope and passive tolerance set the dimensions of an animal's niche, here defined as its capacity to survive, grow, behave, and interact with other species. We demonstrate how comparative studies of cod or killifish populations in a latitudinal cline have unraveled mitochondrial mechanisms involved in establishing a species' niche, performance, and energy budget. Riverine fish exemplify how the performance windows of various developmental stages follow the dynamic regimes of both seasonal temperatures and river hydrodynamics, as synergistic challenges. Finally, studies of species in extreme environments, such as the tilapia of Lake Magadi, illustrate how on evolutionary timescales functional and morphological shifts can occur, associated with new specializations. We conclude that research on the processes and time course of adaptations suitable to overcome current niche limits is urgently needed to assess the resilience of species and ecosystems to human impact, including the challenges of global climate change.

Modelling marine protected areas: insights and hurdles

PubMed Central

Fulton, Elizabeth A.; Bax, Nicholas J.; Bustamante, Rodrigo H.; Dambacher, Jeffrey M.; Dichmont, Catherine; Dunstan, Piers K.; Hayes, Keith R.; Hobday, Alistair J.; Pitcher, Roland; Plagányi, Éva E.; Punt, André E.; Savina-Rolland, Marie; Smith, Anthony D. M.; Smith, David C.

2015-01-01

Models provide useful insights into conservation and resource management issues and solutions. Their use to date has highlighted conditions under which no-take marine protected areas (MPAs) may help us to achieve the goals of ecosystem-based management by reducing pressures, and where they might fail to achieve desired goals. For example, static reserve designs are unlikely to achieve desired objectives when applied to mobile species or when compromised by climate-related ecosystem restructuring and range shifts. Modelling tools allow planners to explore a range of options, such as basing MPAs on the presence of dynamic oceanic features, and to evaluate the potential future impacts of alternative interventions compared with ‘no-action’ counterfactuals, under a range of environmental and development scenarios. The modelling environment allows the analyst to test if indicators and management strategies are robust to uncertainties in how the ecosystem (and the broader human–ecosystem combination) operates, including the direct and indirect ecological effects of protection. Moreover, modelling results can be presented at multiple spatial and temporal scales, and relative to ecological, economic and social objectives. This helps to reveal potential ‘surprises', such as regime shifts, trophic cascades and bottlenecks in human responses. Using illustrative examples, this paper briefly covers the history of the use of simulation models for evaluating MPA options, and discusses their utility and limitations for informing protected area management in the marine realm. PMID:26460131

Development of an inflow controlled environmental flow regime for a Norwegian river

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alfredsen, Knut; Harby, Atle; Linnansaari, Tommi; Ugedal, Ola

2010-05-01

For most regulated rivers in Norway the common environmental flow regime is static and shows very little variation over the year. Recent research indicate that flow regimes that follow the natural inflow variation can meet the ecological and social demands for water in a better way. The implementation of a variable environmental flow regime provides many challenges both related to defining flow for various species and user groups in the river, but also due to practical implementation, legislation and control. A inflow controlled flow regime is developed for a Norwegian river regulated for hydro power as a pilot study. The regime should meet ecological demands from Atlantic salmon and brown trout, recreational use of water and visual impression of the river. This should be achieved preferably without altering the energy production in the hydro power system. The flow regime is developed for wet, dry and normal discharge conditions based on unregulated inflow to the catchment. The development of the seasonal flow requirements for various targets identified is done using a modification of the Building Block Method. Several options are tested regarding the integration of the flow regime into the operational strategy of the hydropower plant, both using real time prognosis of inflow and combinations with historical data. An important topic in selecting the release strategy is how it meets current Norwegian legislation and how well future documentation and environmental control can be carried out. An evaluation protocol is also proposed for the flow regime to test if the ecological targets are met.

Linking sediment-charcoal records and ecological modeling to understand causes of fire-regime change in boreal forests.

PubMed

Brubaker, Linda B; Higuera, Philip E; Rupp, T Scott; Olson, Mark A; Anderson, Patricia M; Hu, Feng Sheng

2009-07-01

Interactions between vegetation and fire have the potential to overshadow direct effects of climate change on fire regimes in boreal forests of North America. We develop methods to compare sediment-charcoal records with fire regimes simulated by an ecologica model, ALFRESCO (Alaskan Frame-based Ecosystem Code) and apply these methods to evaluate potential causes of a mid-Holocene fire-regime shift in boreal forests of the south-central Brooks Range, Alaska, U.S.A. Fire-return intervals (FRIs, number of years between fires) are estimated over the past 7000 calibrated 14C years (7-0 kyr BP [before present]) from short-term variations in charcoal accumulation rates (CHARs) at three lakes, and an index of area burned is inferred from long-term CHARs at these sites. ALFRESCO simulations of FRIs and annual area burned are based on prescribed vegetation and climate for 7-5 kyr BP and 5-0 kyr BP, inferred from pollen and stomata records and qualitative paleoclimate proxies. Two sets of experiments examine potential causes of increased burning between 7-5 and 5-0 kyr BP. (1) Static-vegetation scenarios: white spruce dominates with static mean temperature and total precipitation of the growing season for 7-0 kyr BP or with decreased temperature and/or increased precipitation for 5-0 kyr BP. (2) Changed-vegetation scenarios: black spruce dominates 5-0 kyr BP, with static temperature and precipitation or decreased temperature and/or increased precipitation. Median FRIs decreased between 7-5 and 5-0 kyr BP in empirical data and changed-vegetation scenarios but remained relatively constant in static-vegetation scenarios. Median empirical and simulated FRIs are not statistically different for 7-5 kyr BP and for two changed-vegetation scenarios (temperature decrease, precipitation increase) for 5-0 kyr BP. In these scenarios, cooler temperatures or increased precipitation dampened the effect of increased landscape flammability resulting from the increase in black spruce. CHAR records and all changed-vegetation scenarios indicate long-term increases in area burned between 7-5 and 5-0 kyr BP. The similarity of CHAR and ALFRESCO results demonstrates the compatibility of these independent data sets for investigating ecological mechanisms causing past fire-regime changes. The finding that vegetation flammability was a major driver of Holocene fire regimes is consistent with other investigations that suggest that landscape fuel characteristics will mediate the direct effects of future climate change on boreal fire regimes.

FISHER INFORMATION OF DYNAMIC REGIME TRANSITIONS IN ECOLOGICAL SYSTEMS

EPA Science Inventory

Ecosystems often exhibit transitions between multiple dynamic regimes (or steady states). As ecosystems experience perturbations of varying regularity and intensity, they may either remain within the state space neighborhood of the current regime, or ?flip? into the neighborhood ...

Nutrient availability and phytoplankton nutrient limitation across a gradient of atmospheric nitrogen deposition

USGS Publications Warehouse

Elser, J.J.; Kyle, M.; Steuer, L.; Nydick, K.R.; Baron, Jill S.

2009-01-01

Atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition to lakes and watersheds has been increasing steadily due to various anthropogenic activities. Because such anthropogenic N is widely distributed, even lakes relatively removed from direct human disturbance are potentially impacted. However, the effects of increased atmospheric N deposition on lakes are not well documented, We examined phytoplankton biomass, the absolute and relative abundance of limiting nutrients (N and phosphorus [P]), and phytoplankton nutrient limitation in alpine lakes of the Rocky Mountains of Colorado (USA) receiving elevated (>6 kg N??ha-1??yr-1) or low (<2 kg N??ha-1??yr-1) levels of atmospheric N deposition. Highdeposition lakes had higher NO3-N and total N concentrations and higher total N : total P ratios. Concentrations of chlorophyll and seston carbon (C) were 2-2.5 times higher in highdeposition relative to low-deposition lakes, while high-deposition lakes also had higher seston C:N and C:P (but not N:P) ratios. Short-term enrichment bioassays indicated a qualitative shift in the nature of phytoplankton nutrient limitation due to N deposition, as highdeposition lakes had an increased frequency of primary P limitation and a decreased frequency and magnitude of response to N and to combined N and P enrichment. Thus elevated atmospheric N deposition appears to have shifted nutrient supply from a relatively balanced but predominantly N-deficient regime to a more consistently P-limited regime in Colorado alpine lakes. This adds to accumulating evidence that sustained N deposition may have important effects on lake phytoplankton communities and plankton-based food webs by shifting the quantitative and qualitative nature of nutrient limitation. ?? 2009 by the Ecological Society of America.

Qualitative assessment of climate-driven ecological shifts in the Caspian Sea

PubMed Central

Beyraghdar Kashkooli, Omid; Gröger, Joachim; Núñez-Riboni, Ismael

2017-01-01

The worldwide occurrence of complex climate-induced ecological shifts in marine systems is one of the major challenges in sustainable bio-resources management. The occurrence of ecological environment-driven shifts was studied in the Southern Caspian Sea using the “shiftogram” method on available fisheries-related (i.e. commercially important bentho-pelagic fish stocks) ecological and climatic variables. As indicators of potential environmentally driven shift patterns we used indices for the North Atlantic Oscillation, the Southern Oscillation, the Siberian High, the East Atlantic-West Russia pattern, as well as Sea Surface Temperature and surface chlorophyll-a concentration. Given the explorative findings from the serial shift analyses, the cascading and serial order of multiple shift events in climatic-ecologic conditions of the southern Caspian Sea suggested a linkage between external forces and dynamics of ecosystem components and structures in the following order: global-scale climate forces lead to local environmental processes, which in turn lead to biological components dynamics. For the first time, this study indicates that ecological shifts are an integral component of bentho-pelagic subsystem regulatory processes and dynamics. Qualitative correspondence of biological responses of bentho-pelagic stocks to climatic events is one of the supporting evidences that overall Caspian ecosystem structures and functioning might have–at least partially–been impacted by global-scale climatic or local environmental shifts. These findings may help to foster a regional Ecosystem-based Approach to Management (EAM) as an integral part of bentho-pelagic fisheries management plans. PMID:28475609

Ecological impacts of winter water level drawdowns on lake littoral zones: A review

USGS Publications Warehouse

Roy, Allison

2017-01-01

Freshwater littoral zones harbor diverse ecological communities and serve numerous ecosystem functions that are controlled, in part, by natural water level fluctuations. However, human alteration of lake hydrologic regimes beyond natural fluctuations threaten littoral zone ecological integrity. One type of hydrologic alteration in lakes is winter water level drawdowns, which are frequently employed for hydropower, flood control, and macrophyte control, among other purposes. Here, we synthesize the abiotic and biotic responses to annual and novel winter water level drawdowns in littoral zones of lakes and reservoirs. The dewatering, freezing, and increased erosion of exposed lakebeds drive changes in the littoral zone. Shoreline-specific physicochemical conditions such as littoral slope and shoreline exposure further induce modifications. Loss of fine sediment decreases nutrient availability over time, but desiccation may promote a temporary nutrient pulse upon re-inundation. Annual winter drawdowns can decrease taxonomic richness of macrophytes and benthic invertebrates and shift assemblage composition to favor taxa with r-selected life history strategies and with functional traits resistant to direct and indirect drawdown effects. Fish assemblages, though less directly affected by winter drawdowns (except where there is critically low dissolved oxygen), experience negative effects via indirect pathways like decreased food resources and spawning habitat. We identify eight general research gaps to guide future research that could improve our understanding about the complex effects of winter drawdowns on littoral zone ecology.

Trophic cascades triggered by overfishing reveal possible mechanisms of ecosystem regime shifts.

PubMed

Daskalov, Georgi M; Grishin, Alexander N; Rodionov, Sergei; Mihneva, Vesselina

2007-06-19

Large-scale transitions between alternative states in ecosystems are known as regime shifts. Once described as healthy and dominated by various marine predators, the Black Sea ecosystem by the late 20th century had experienced anthropogenic impacts such as heavy fishing, cultural eutrophication, and invasions by alien species. We studied changes related to these "natural experiments" to reveal the mechanisms of regime shifts. Two major shifts were detected, the first related to a depletion of marine predators and the second to an outburst of the alien comb jelly Mnemiopsis leidyi; both shifts were triggered by intense fishing resulting in system-wide trophic cascades. The complex nature of ecosystem responses to human activities calls for more elaborate approaches than currently provided by traditional environmental and fisheries management. This implies challenging existing practices and implementing explanatory models of ecosystem interactions that can better reconcile conservation and ecosystem management ideals.

Architecture of collapse: regime shift and recovery in an hierarchically structured marine ecosystem.

PubMed

Daskalov, Georgi M; Boicenco, Laura; Grishin, Alexandre N; Lazar, Luminita; Mihneva, Vesselina; Shlyakhov, Vladislav A; Zengin, Mustafa

2017-04-01

By the late 20th century, a series of events or 'natural experiments', for example the depletion of apex predators, extreme eutrophication and blooms of invasive species, had suggested that the Black Sea could be considered as a large ecosystem 'laboratory'. The events resulted in regime shifts cascading through all trophic levels, disturbing ecosystem functioning and damaging the water environment. Causal pathways by which the external (hydroclimate, overfishing) and internal (food web interactions) drivers provoke regime shifts are investigated. Statistical data analyses supported by an interpretative framework based on hierarchical ecosystem theory revealed mechanisms of hierarchical incorporation of environmental factors into the ecosystem. Evidence links Atlantic teleconnections to Black Sea hydroclimate, which together with fishing shapes variability in fish stocks. The hydroclimatic signal is conveyed through the food web via changes in productivity at all levels, to planktivorous fish. Fluctuating fish abundance is believed to induce a lagged change in competitor jelly plankton that cascades down to phytoplankton and influences water quality. Deprived of the stabilising role of apex predators, the Black Sea's hierarchical ecosystem organisation is susceptible to both environmental and anthropogenic stresses, and increased fishing makes fish stock collapses highly probable. When declining stocks are confronted with burgeoning fishing effort associated with the inability of fishery managers and decision-makers to adapt rapidly to changes in fish abundance, there is overfishing and stock collapse. Management procedures are ineffective at handling complex phenomena such as ecosystem regime shifts because of the shortage of suitable explanatory models. The proposed concepts and models reported here relate the hydroclimate, overfishing and invasive species to shifts in ecosystem functioning and water quality, unravelling issues such as the causality of ecosystem interactions and mechanisms and offering potential for finding ways to reverse regime shifts. We advocate a management approach aiming at restoring ecosystem hierarchy that might mitigate the costly consequences of regime shifts. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Shifting balance of thermokarst lake ice regimes across the Arctic Coastal Plain of northern Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Arp, Christopher D.; Jones, Benjamin M.; Lu, Zong; Whitman, Matthew S.

2012-01-01

The balance of thermokarst lakes with bedfast- and floating-ice regimes across Arctic lowlands regulates heat storage, permafrost thaw, winter-water supply, and over-wintering aquatic habitat. Using a time-series of late-winter synthetic aperture radar (SAR) imagery to distinguish lake ice regimes in two regions of the Arctic Coastal Plain of northern Alaska from 2003–2011, we found that 18% of the lakes had intermittent ice regimes, varying between bedfast-ice and floating-ice conditions. Comparing this dataset with a radar-based lake classification from 1980 showed that 16% of the bedfast-ice lakes had shifted to floating-ice regimes. A simulated lake ice thinning trend of 1.5 cm/yr since 1978 is believed to be the primary factor driving this form of lake change. The most profound impacts of this regime shift in Arctic lakes may be an increase in the landscape-scale thermal offset created by additional lake heat storage and its role in talik development in otherwise continuous permafrost as well as increases in over-winter aquatic habitat and winter-water supply.

Resistance to invasion and resilience to fire in desert shrublands of North America

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brooks, Matthew L.; Chambers, Jeanne C.

2011-01-01

Settlement by Anglo-Americans in the desert shrublands of North America resulted in the introduction and subsequent invasion of multiple nonnative grass species. These invasions have altered presettlement fire regimes, resulted in conversion of native perennial shrublands to nonnative annual grasslands, and placed many native desert species at risk. Effective management of these ecosystems requires an understanding of their ecological resistance to invasion and resilience to fire. Resistance and resilience differ among the cold and hot desert shrublands of the Great Basin, Mojave, Sonoran, and Chihuahuan deserts in North America. These differences are largely determined by spatial and temporal patterns of productivity but also are affected by ecological memory, severity and frequency of disturbance, and feedbacks among invasive species and disturbance regimes. Strategies for preventing or managing invasive plant/fire regimes cycles in desert shrublands include: 1) conducting periodic resource assessments to evaluate the probability of establishment of an altered fire regime; 2) developing an understanding of ecological thresholds associate within invasion resistance and fire resilience that characterize transitions from desirable to undesirable fire regimes; and 3) prioritizing management activities based on resistance of areas to invasion and resilience to fire.

Climate change and potential reversal of regime shifts in desrt ecosystems

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Globally, regime shifts from grasslands to shrublands (i.e., desertification) in arid and semiarid ecosystems are thought to be irreversible, similar to state changes in other ecosystems. The consequences of desertification, including loss of soil and nutrients to wind and water erosion, reductions ...

A Statistical Methodology for Detecting and Monitoring Change in Forest Ecosystems Using Remotely Sensed Imagery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mills, R. T.; Kumar, J.; Hoffman, F. M.; Hargrove, W. W.; Spruce, J.

2011-12-01

Variations in vegetation phenology, the annual temporal pattern of leaf growth and senescence, can be a strong indicator of ecological change or disturbance. However, phenology is also strongly influenced by seasonal, interannual, and long-term trends in climate, making identification of changes in forest ecosystems a challenge. Forest ecosystems are vulnerable to extreme weather events, insect and disease attacks, wildfire, harvesting, and other land use change. Normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), a remotely sensed measure of greenness, provides a proxy for phenology. NDVI for the conterminous United States (CONUS) derived from the Moderate Resolution Spectroradiometer (MODIS) at 250 m resolution was used in this study to develop phenological signatures of ecological regimes called phenoregions. By applying a quantitative data mining technique to the NDVI measurements for every eight days over the entire MODIS record, annual maps of phenoregions were developed. This geospatiotemporal cluster analysis technique employs high performance computing resources, enabling analysis of such very large data sets. This technique produces a prescribed number of prototypical phenological states to which every location belongs in any year. Analysis of the shifts among phenological states yields information about responses to interannual climate variability and, more importantly, changes in ecosystem health due to disturbances. Moreover, a large change in the phenological states occupied by a single location over time indicates a significant disturbance or ecological shift. This methodology has been applied for identification of various forest disturbance events, including wildfire, tree mortality due to Mountain Pine Beetle, and other insect infestation and diseases, as well as extreme events like storms and hurricanes in the U.S. Presented will be results from analysis of phenological state dynamics, along with disturbance and validation data.

Critical slowing down associated with regime shifts in the US housing market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tan, James Peng Lung; Cheong, Siew Siew Ann

2014-02-01

Complex systems are described by a large number of variables with strong and nonlinear interactions. Such systems frequently undergo regime shifts. Combining insights from bifurcation theory in nonlinear dynamics and the theory of critical transitions in statistical physics, we know that critical slowing down and critical fluctuations occur close to such regime shifts. In this paper, we show how universal precursors expected from such critical transitions can be used to forecast regime shifts in the US housing market. In the housing permit, volume of homes sold and percentage of homes sold for gain data, we detected strong early warning signals associated with a sequence of coupled regime shifts, starting from a Subprime Mortgage Loans transition in 2003-2004 and ending with the Subprime Crisis in 2007-2008. Weaker signals of critical slowing down were also detected in the US housing market data during the 1997-1998 Asian Financial Crisis and the 2000-2001 Technology Bubble Crisis. Backed by various macroeconomic data, we propose a scenario whereby hot money flowing back into the US during the Asian Financial Crisis fueled the Technology Bubble. When the Technology Bubble collapsed in 2000-2001, the hot money then flowed into the US housing market, triggering the Subprime Mortgage Loans transition in 2003-2004 and an ensuing sequence of transitions. We showed how this sequence of couple transitions unfolded in space and in time over the whole of US.

A Tale of Two Regimes: Instrumentality and Commons Access

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Toly, Noah J.

2005-01-01

Technical developments have profound social and environmental impacts. Both are observed in the implications of regimes of instrumentality for commons access regimes. Establishing social, material, ecological, intellectual, and moral infrastructures, technologies are partly constitutive of commons access and may militate against governance…

Using time-varying asymptotic length and body condition of top piscivores to indicate ecosystem regime shift in the main basin of Lake Huron: a Bayesian hierarchical modeling approach

USGS Publications Warehouse

He, Ji X.; Bence, James R.; Roseman, Edward F.; Fielder, David G.; Ebener, Mark P.

2015-01-01

We evaluated the ecosystem regime shift in the main basin of Lake Huron that was indicated by the 2003 collapse of alewives, and dramatic declines in Chinook salmon abundance thereafter. We found that the period of 1995-2002 should be considered as the early phase of the final regime shift. We developed two Bayesian hierarchical models to describe time-varying growth based on the von Bertalanffy growth function and the length-mass relationship. We used asymptotic length as an index of growth potential, and predicted body mass at a given length as an index of body condition. Modeling fits to length and body mass at age of lake trout, Chinook salmon, and walleye were excellent. Based on posterior distributions, we evaluated the shifts in among-year geometric means of the growth potential and body condition. For a given top piscivore, one of the two indices responded to the regime shift much earlier than the 2003 collapse of alewives, the other corresponded to the 2003 changes, and which index provided the early signal differed among the three top piscivores.

Prolonged Instability Prior to a Regime Shift

EPA Science Inventory

Regime shifts are generally defined as the point of ‘abrupt’ change in the state of a system. However, a seemingly abrupt transition can be the product of a system reorganization that has been ongoing much longer than is evident in statistical analysis of a single component of th...

Predicting streamflow regime metrics for ungauged streamsin Colorado, Washington, and Oregon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sanborn, Stephen C.; Bledsoe, Brian P.

2006-06-01

Streamflow prediction in ungauged basins provides essential information for water resources planning and management and ecohydrological studies yet remains a fundamental challenge to the hydrological sciences. A methodology is presented for stratifying streamflow regimes of gauged locations, classifying the regimes of ungauged streams, and developing models for predicting a suite of ecologically pertinent streamflow metrics for these streams. Eighty-four streamflow metrics characterizing various flow regime attributes were computed along with physical and climatic drainage basin characteristics for 150 streams with little or no streamflow modification in Colorado, Washington, and Oregon. The diverse hydroclimatology of the study area necessitates flow regime stratification and geographically independent clusters were identified and used to develop separate predictive models for each flow regime type. Multiple regression models for flow magnitude, timing, and rate of change metrics were quite accurate with many adjusted R2 values exceeding 0.80, while models describing streamflow variability did not perform as well. Separate stratification schemes for high, low, and average flows did not considerably improve models for metrics describing those particular aspects of the regime over a scheme based on the entire flow regime. Models for streams identified as 'snowmelt' type were improved if sites in Colorado and the Pacific Northwest were separated to better stratify the processes driving streamflow in these regions thus revealing limitations of geographically independent streamflow clusters. This study demonstrates that a broad suite of ecologically relevant streamflow characteristics can be accurately modeled across large heterogeneous regions using this framework. Applications of the resulting models include stratifying biomonitoring sites and quantifying linkages between specific aspects of flow regimes and aquatic community structure. In particular, the results bode well for modeling ecological processes related to high-flow magnitude, timing, and rate of change such as the recruitment of fish and riparian vegetation across large regions.

Mixed-severity fire regimes: lessons and hypotheses from the Klamath-Siskiyou ecoregion

Treesearch

J.E. Halofsky; D.C. Donato; D.E. Hibbs; J.L. Campbell; M. Donaghy Cannon; J.B. Fontaine; J.R. Thompson; R.G. Anthony; B.T. Bormann; L.J. Kayes; B.E. Law; D.L. Peterson; T.A. Spies

2011-01-01

Although mixed-severity fires are among the most widespread disturbances influencing western North American forests, they remain the least understood. A major question is the degree to which mixed-severity fire regimes are simply an ecological intermediate between low- and high-severity fire regimes, versus a unique disturbance regime with distinct properties. The...

A Risk-Based Ecohydrological Approach to Assessing Environmental Flow Regimes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mcgregor, Glenn B.; Marshall, Jonathan C.; Lobegeiger, Jaye S.; Holloway, Dean; Menke, Norbert; Coysh, Julie

2018-03-01

For several decades there has been recognition that water resource development alters river flow regimes and impacts ecosystem values. Determining strategies to protect or restore flow regimes to achieve ecological outcomes is a focus of water policy and legislation in many parts of the world. However, consideration of existing environmental flow assessment approaches for application in Queensland identified deficiencies precluding their adoption. Firstly, in managing flows and using ecosystem condition as an indicator of effectiveness, many approaches ignore the fact that river ecosystems are subjected to threatening processes other than flow regime alteration. Secondly, many focus on providing flows for responses without considering how often they are necessary to sustain ecological values in the long-term. Finally, few consider requirements at spatial-scales relevant to the desired outcomes, with frequent focus on individual places rather than the regions supporting sustainability. Consequently, we developed a risk-based ecohydrological approach that identifies ecosystem values linked to desired ecological outcomes, is sensitive to flow alteration and uses indicators of broader ecosystem requirements. Monitoring and research is undertaken to quantify flow-dependencies and ecological modelling is used to quantify flow-related ecological responses over an historical flow period. The relative risk from different flow management scenarios can be evaluated at relevant spatial-scales. This overcomes the deficiencies identified above and provides a robust and useful foundation upon which to build the information needed to support water planning decisions. Application of the risk assessment approach is illustrated here by two case studies.

Should heterogeneity be the basis for conservation? Grassland bird response to fire and grazing

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fuhlendorf, S.D.; Harrell, W.C.; Engle, David M.; Hamilton, R.G.; Davis, C.A.; Leslie, David M.

2006-01-01

In tallgrass prairie, disturbances such as grazing and fire can generate patchiness across the landscape, contributing to a shifting mosaic that presumably enhances biodiversity. Grassland birds evolved within the context of this shifting mosaic, with some species restricted to one or two patch types created under spatially and temporally distinct disturbance regimes. Thus, management-driven reductions in heterogeneity may be partly responsible for declines in numbers of grassland birds. We experimentally altered spatial heterogeneity of vegetation structure within a tallgrass prairie by varying the spatial and temporal extent of fire and by allowing grazing animals to move freely among burned and unburned patches (patch treatment). We contrasted this disturbance regime with traditional agricultural management of the region that promotes homogeneity (traditional treatment). We monitored grassland bird abundance during the breeding seasons of 2001-2003 to determine the influence of altered spatial heterogeneity on the grassland bird community. Focal disturbances of patch burning and grazing that shifted through the landscape over several years resulted in a more heterogeneous pattern of vegetation than uniform application of fire and grazing. Greater spatial heterogeneity in vegetation provided greater variability in the grassland bird community. Some bird species occurred in greatest abundance within focally disturbed patches, while others occurred in relatively undisturbed patches in our patch treatment. Henslow's Sparrow, a declining species, occurred only within the patch treatment. Upland Sandpiper and some other species were more abundant on recently disturbed patches within the same treatment. The patch burn treatment created the entire gradient of vegetation structure required to maintain a suite of grassland bird species that differ in habitat preferences. Our study demonstrated that increasing spatial and temporal heterogeneity of disturbance in grasslands increases variability in vegetation structure that results in greater variability at higher trophic levels. Thus, management that creates a shifting mosaic using spatially and temporally discrete disturbances in grasslands can be a useful tool in conservation. In the case of North American tallgrass prairie, discrete fires that capitalize on preferential grazing behavior of large ungulates promote a shifting mosaic of habitat types that maintain biodiversity and agricultural productivity. ?? 2006 by the Ecological Society of America.

Linking degradation status with ecosystem vulnerability to environmental change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Angeler, David G.; Baho, Didier L.; Allen, Craig R.; Johnson, Richard K.

2015-01-01

Environmental change can cause regime shifts in ecosystems, potentially threatening ecosystem services. It is unclear if the degradation status of ecosystems correlates with their vulnerability to environmental change, and thus the risk of future regime shifts. We assessed resilience in acidified (degraded) and circumneutral (undegraded) lakes with long-term data (1988–2012), using time series modeling. We identified temporal frequencies in invertebrate assemblages, which identifies groups of species whose population dynamics vary at particular temporal scales. We also assessed species with stochastic dynamics, those whose population dynamics vary irregularly and unpredictably over time. We determined the distribution of functional feeding groups of invertebrates within and across the temporal scales identified, and in those species with stochastic dynamics, and assessed attributes hypothesized to contribute to resilience. Three patterns of temporal dynamics, consistent across study lakes, were identified in the invertebrates. The first pattern was one of monotonic change associated with changing abiotic lake conditions. The second and third patterns appeared unrelated to the environmental changes we monitored. Acidified and the circumneutral lakes shared similar levels and patterns of functional richness, evenness, diversity, and redundancy for species within and across the observed temporal scales and for stochastic species groups. These similar resilience characteristics suggest that both lake types did not differ in vulnerability to the environmental changes observed here. Although both lake types appeared equally vulnerable in this study, our approach demonstrates how assessing systemic vulnerability by quantifying ecological resilience can help address uncertainty in predicting ecosystem responses to environmental change across ecosystems.

Pollen dispersal slows geographical range shift and accelerates ecological niche shift under climate change

PubMed Central

Aguilée, Robin; Raoul, Gaël; Rousset, François; Ronce, Ophélie

2016-01-01

Species may survive climate change by migrating to track favorable climates and/or adapting to different climates. Several quantitative genetics models predict that species escaping extinction will change their geographical distribution while keeping the same ecological niche. We introduce pollen dispersal in these models, which affects gene flow but not directly colonization. We show that plant populations may escape extinction because of both spatial range and ecological niche shifts. Exact analytical formulas predict that increasing pollen dispersal distance slows the expected spatial range shift and accelerates the ecological niche shift. There is an optimal distance of pollen dispersal, which maximizes the sustainable rate of climate change. These conclusions hold in simulations relaxing several strong assumptions of our analytical model. Our results imply that, for plants with long distance of pollen dispersal, models assuming niche conservatism may not accurately predict their future distribution under climate change. PMID:27621443

Pollen dispersal slows geographical range shift and accelerates ecological niche shift under climate change.

PubMed

Aguilée, Robin; Raoul, Gaël; Rousset, François; Ronce, Ophélie

2016-09-27

Species may survive climate change by migrating to track favorable climates and/or adapting to different climates. Several quantitative genetics models predict that species escaping extinction will change their geographical distribution while keeping the same ecological niche. We introduce pollen dispersal in these models, which affects gene flow but not directly colonization. We show that plant populations may escape extinction because of both spatial range and ecological niche shifts. Exact analytical formulas predict that increasing pollen dispersal distance slows the expected spatial range shift and accelerates the ecological niche shift. There is an optimal distance of pollen dispersal, which maximizes the sustainable rate of climate change. These conclusions hold in simulations relaxing several strong assumptions of our analytical model. Our results imply that, for plants with long distance of pollen dispersal, models assuming niche conservatism may not accurately predict their future distribution under climate change.

Searching for resilience: addressing the impacts of changing disturbance regimes on forest ecosystem services

PubMed Central

Seidl, Rupert; Spies, Thomas A.; Peterson, David L.; Stephens, Scott L.; Hicke, Jeffrey A.

2016-01-01

Summary 1. The provisioning of ecosystem services to society is increasingly under pressure from global change. Changing disturbance regimes are of particular concern in this context due to their high potential impact on ecosystem structure, function and composition. Resilience-based stewardship is advocated to address these changes in ecosystem management, but its operational implementation has remained challenging. 2. We review observed and expected changes in disturbance regimes and their potential impacts on provisioning, regulating, cultural and supporting ecosystem services, concentrating on temperate and boreal forests. Subsequently, we focus on resilience as a powerful concept to quantify and address these changes and their impacts, and present an approach towards its operational application using established methods from disturbance ecology. 3. We suggest using the range of variability concept – characterizing and bounding the long-term behaviour of ecosystems – to locate and delineate the basins of attraction of a system. System recovery in relation to its range of variability can be used to measure resilience of ecosystems, allowing inferences on both engineering resilience (recovery rate) and monitoring for regime shifts (directionality of recovery trajectory). 4. It is important to consider the dynamic nature of these properties in ecosystem analysis and management decision-making, as both disturbance processes and mechanisms of resilience will be subject to changes in the future. Furthermore, because ecosystem services are at the interface between natural and human systems, the social dimension of resilience (social adaptive capacity and range of variability) requires consideration in responding to changing disturbance regimes in forests. 5. Synthesis and applications. Based on examples from temperate and boreal forests we synthesize principles and pathways for fostering resilience to changing disturbance regimes in ecosystem management. We conclude that future work should focus on testing and implementing these pathways in different contexts to make ecosystem services provisioning more robust to changing disturbance regimes and advance our understanding of how to cope with change and uncertainty in ecosystem management. PMID:26966320

Convergent life-history shifts: toxic environments result in big babies in two clades of poeciliids

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riesch, Rüdiger; Plath, Martin; García de León, Francisco J.; Schlupp, Ingo

2010-02-01

The majority of studies on ecological speciation in animals have investigated the divergence caused by biotic factors like divergent food sources or predatory regimes. Here, we examined a system where ecological speciation can clearly be ascribed to abiotic environmental gradients of naturally occurring toxic hydrogen sulfide (H2S). In southern Mexico, two genera of livebearing fishes (Poeciliidae: Poecilia and Gambusia) thrive in various watercourses with different concentrations of H2S. Previous studies have revealed pronounced genetic differentiation between different locally adapted populations in one species ( Poecilia mexicana), pointing towards incipient speciation. In the present study, we examined female reproductive life-history traits in two species pairs: Gambusia sexradiata (from a nonsulfidic and a sulfidic habitat) and Gambusia eurystoma (sulfide-endemic), as well as P. mexicana (nonsulfidic and sulfidic) and Poecilia sulphuraria (sulfide endemic). We found convergent divergence of life-history traits in response to sulfide; most prominently, extremophile poeciliids exhibit drastically increased offspring size coupled with reduced fecundity. Furthermore, within each genus, this trend increased with increasing sulfide concentrations and was most pronounced in the two endemic sulfur-adapted species. We discuss the adaptive significance of large offspring size in toxic environments and propose that divergent life-history evolution may promote further ecological divergence through isolation by adaptation.

Intraspecific ecological niche divergence and reproductive shifts foster cytotype displacement and provide ecological opportunity to polyploids.

PubMed

Karunarathne, Piyal; Schedler, Mara; Martínez, Eric J; Honfi, Ana I; Novichkova, Anastasiia; Hojsgaard, Diego

2018-05-11

Niche divergence between polyploids and their lower ploidy progenitors is one of the primary mechanisms fostering polyploid establishment and adaptive divergence. However, within-species chromosomal and reproductive variability have usually been neglected in community ecology and biodiversity analyses even though they have been recognized to play a role in the adaptive diversification of lineages. We used Paspalum intermedium, a grass species with diverging genetic systems (diploidy vs. autopolyploidy, allogamy vs. autogamy and sexuality vs. apomixis), to recognize the causality of biogeographic patterns, adaptation and ecological flexibility of cytotypes. Chromosome counts and flow cytometry were used to characterize within-species genetic systems diversity. Environmental niche modelling was used to evaluate intraspecific ecological attributes associated with environmental and climatic factors and to assess correlations among ploidy, reproductive modes and ecological conditions ruling species' population dynamics, range expansion, adaptation and evolutionary history. Two dominant cytotypes non-randomly distributed along local and regional geographical scales displayed niche differentiation, a directional shift in niche optima and signs of disruptive selection on ploidy-related ecological aptitudes for the exploitation of environmental resources. Ecologically specialized allogamous sexual diploids were found in northern areas associated with higher temperature, humidity and productivity, while generalist autogamous apomictic tetraploids occurred in southern areas, occupying colder and less productive environments. Four localities with a documented shift in ploidy and four mixed populations in a zone of ecological transition revealed an uneven replacement between cytotypes. Polyploidy and contrasting reproductive traits between cytotypes have promoted shifts in niche optima, and increased ecological tolerance and niche divergence. Ecologically specialized diploids maintain cytotype stability in core areas by displacing tetraploids, while broader ecological preferences and a shift from sexuality to apomixis favoured polyploid colonization in peripheral areas where diploids are displaced, and fostered the ecological opportunity for autotetraploids supporting range expansion to open southern habitats.

Regime Switching State-Space Models Applied to Psychological Processes: Handling Missing Data and Making Inferences

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hamaker, E. L.; Grasman, R. P. P. P.

2012-01-01

Many psychological processes are characterized by recurrent shifts between distinct regimes or states. Examples that are considered in this paper are the switches between different states associated with premenstrual syndrome, hourly fluctuations in affect during a major depressive episode, and shifts between a "hot hand" and a…

Artificial light alters natural regimes of night-time sky brightness

PubMed Central

Davies, Thomas W.; Bennie, Jonathan; Inger, Richard; Gaston, Kevin J.

2013-01-01

Artificial light is globally one of the most widely distributed forms of anthropogenic pollution. However, while both the nature and ecological effects of direct artificial lighting are increasingly well documented, those of artificial sky glow have received little attention. We investigated how city lights alter natural regimes of lunar sky brightness using a novel ten month time series of measurements recorded across a gradient of increasing light pollution. In the city, artificial lights increased sky brightness to levels six times above those recorded in rural locations, nine and twenty kilometers away. Artificial lighting masked natural monthly and seasonal regimes of lunar sky brightness in the city, and increased the number and annual regime of full moon equivalent hours available to organisms during the night. The changes have potentially profound ecological consequences.

Fire and vegetation shifts in the Americas at the vanguard of Paleoindian migration

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pinter, N.; Fiedel, S.; Keeley, J.E.

2011-01-01

Across North and South America, the final millennia of the Pleistocene saw dramatic changes in climate, vegetation, fauna, fire regime, and other local and regional paleo-environmental characteristics. Rapid climate shifts following the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) exerted a first-order influence, but abrupt postglacial shifts in vegetation composition, vegetation structure, and fire regime also coincided with human arrival and transformative faunal extinctions in the Americas. We propose a model of post-glacial vegetation change in response to climatic drivers, punctuated by local fire regime shifts in response to megaherbivore-driven fuel changes and anthropogenic ignitions. The abrupt appearance of humans, disappearance of megaherbivores, and resulting changes in New World fire systems were transformative events that should not be dismissed in favor of climate-only interpretations of post-glacial paleo-environmental shifts in the Americas. Fire is a mechanism by which small human populations can have broad impacts, and growing evidence suggests that early anthropogenic influences on regional, even global, paleo-environments should be tested alongside other potential causal mechanisms.

Fishing for resilience

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pope, Kevin L.; Allen, Craig R.; Angeler, David G.

2014-01-01

Management approaches that focus on social–ecological systems—systems comprised of ecosystems, landscapes, and humans—are needed to secure the sustainability of inland recreational fisheries without jeopardizing the integrity of the underlying social and ecological components. Resilience management can be useful because it focuses on providing recreational capacity for fishermen under a variety of conditions while assuring that the social–ecological system is not pushed to a critical threshold that would result in a new, undesired system regime. Resilience management is based on a system perspective that accounts for the possible regimes a system could manifest. It aims to enhance system properties that allow continued maintenance of the system in a desired regime in which multiple goods and services, including recreational capacity, are provided. In this forum paper, we provide an overview of the potential of a resilience approach to the management of recreational fisheries and highlight the scientific and administrative challenges to its successful implementation.

Impacts of precipitation variability on plant species and community water stress in a temperate deciduous forest in the central US

DOE PAGES

Gu, Lianhong; Pallardy, Stephen G.; Hosman, Kevin P.; ...

2015-12-11

Variations in precipitation regimes can shift ecosystem structure and function by altering frequency, severity and timing of plant water stress. There is a need for predictively understanding impacts of precipitation regimes on plant water stress in relation to species water use strategies. Here we first formulated two complementary, physiologically-linked measures of precipitation variability (PV) - Precipitation Variability Index (PVI) and Average Recurrence Interval of Effective Precipitation (ARIEP). We then used nine-year continuous measurements of Predawn Leaf Water Potential Integral (PLWPI) in a central US forest to relate PVI and ARIEP to actual plant water availability and comparative water stress responsesmore » of six species with different capacities to regulate their internal water status. We found that PVI and ARIEP explained nearly all inter-annual variations in PLWPI for all species as well as for the community scaled from species measurements. The six species investigated showed differential sensitivities to variations in precipitation regimes. Their sensitivities were reflected more in the responses to PVI and ARIEP than to the mean precipitation rate. Further, they exhibited tradeoffs between responses to low and high PV. Finally, PVI and ARIEP were closely correlated with temporal integrals of positive temperature anomalies and vapor pressure deficit. We suggest that the comparative responses of plant species to PV are part of species-specific water use strategies in a plant community facing the uncertainty of fluctuating precipitation regimes. In conclusion, PVI and ARIEP should be adopted as key indices to quantify physiological drought and the ecological impacts of precipitation regimes in a changing climate.« less

Prolonged Permian Triassic ecological crisis recorded by molluscan dominance in Late Permian offshore assemblages.

PubMed

Clapham, Matthew E; Bottjer, David J

2007-08-07

The end-Permian mass extinction was the largest biotic crisis in the history of animal life, eliminating as many as 95% of all species and dramatically altering the ecological structure of marine communities. Although the causes of this pronounced ecosystem shift have been widely debated, the broad consensus based on inferences from global taxonomic diversity patterns suggests that the shift from abundant brachiopods to dominant molluscs was abrupt and largely driven by the catastrophic effects of the end-Permian mass extinction. Here we analyze relative abundance counts of >33,000 fossil individuals from 24 silicified Middle and Late Permian paleocommunities, documenting a substantial ecological shift to numerical dominance by molluscs in the Late Permian, before the major taxonomic shift at the end-Permian mass extinction. This ecological change was coincident with the development of fluctuating anoxic conditions in deep marine basins, suggesting that numerical dominance by more tolerant molluscs may have been driven by variably stressful environmental conditions. Recognition of substantial ecological deterioration in the Late Permian also implies that the end-Permian extinction was the climax of a protracted environmental crisis. Although the Late Permian shift to molluscan dominance was a pronounced ecological change, quantitative counts of 847 Carboniferous-Cretaceous collections from the Paleobiology Database indicate that it was only the first stage in a stepwise transition that culminated with the final shift to molluscan dominance in the Late Jurassic. Therefore, the ecological transition from brachiopods to bivalves was more protracted and complex than their simple Permian-Triassic switch in diversity.

Prolonged Permian–Triassic ecological crisis recorded by molluscan dominance in Late Permian offshore assemblages

PubMed Central

Clapham, Matthew E.; Bottjer, David J.

2007-01-01

The end-Permian mass extinction was the largest biotic crisis in the history of animal life, eliminating as many as 95% of all species and dramatically altering the ecological structure of marine communities. Although the causes of this pronounced ecosystem shift have been widely debated, the broad consensus based on inferences from global taxonomic diversity patterns suggests that the shift from abundant brachiopods to dominant molluscs was abrupt and largely driven by the catastrophic effects of the end-Permian mass extinction. Here we analyze relative abundance counts of >33,000 fossil individuals from 24 silicified Middle and Late Permian paleocommunities, documenting a substantial ecological shift to numerical dominance by molluscs in the Late Permian, before the major taxonomic shift at the end-Permian mass extinction. This ecological change was coincident with the development of fluctuating anoxic conditions in deep marine basins, suggesting that numerical dominance by more tolerant molluscs may have been driven by variably stressful environmental conditions. Recognition of substantial ecological deterioration in the Late Permian also implies that the end-Permian extinction was the climax of a protracted environmental crisis. Although the Late Permian shift to molluscan dominance was a pronounced ecological change, quantitative counts of 847 Carboniferous–Cretaceous collections from the Paleobiology Database indicate that it was only the first stage in a stepwise transition that culminated with the final shift to molluscan dominance in the Late Jurassic. Therefore, the ecological transition from brachiopods to bivalves was more protracted and complex than their simple Permian–Triassic switch in diversity. PMID:17664426

Variable impact of late-Quaternary megafaunal extinction in causing ecological state shifts in North and South America

PubMed Central

Barnosky, Anthony D.; Lindsey, Emily L.; Villavicencio, Natalia A.; Bostelmann, Enrique; Hadly, Elizabeth A.; Wanket, James; Marshall, Charles R.

2016-01-01

Loss of megafauna, an aspect of defaunation, can precipitate many ecological changes over short time scales. We examine whether megafauna loss can also explain features of lasting ecological state shifts that occurred as the Pleistocene gave way to the Holocene. We compare ecological impacts of late-Quaternary megafauna extinction in five American regions: southwestern Patagonia, the Pampas, northeastern United States, northwestern United States, and Beringia. We find that major ecological state shifts were consistent with expectations of defaunation in North American sites but not in South American ones. The differential responses highlight two factors necessary for defaunation to trigger lasting ecological state shifts discernable in the fossil record: (i) lost megafauna need to have been effective ecosystem engineers, like proboscideans; and (ii) historical contingencies must have provided the ecosystem with plant species likely to respond to megafaunal loss. These findings help in identifying modern ecosystems that are most at risk for disappearing should current pressures on the ecosystems’ large animals continue and highlight the critical role of both individual species ecologies and ecosystem context in predicting the lasting impacts of defaunation currently underway. PMID:26504219

Variable impact of late-Quaternary megafaunal extinction in causing ecological state shifts in North and South America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barnosky, Anthony D.; Lindsey, Emily L.; Villavicencio, Natalia A.; Bostelmann, Enrique; Hadly, Elizabeth A.; Wanket, James; Marshall, Charles R.

2016-01-01

Loss of megafauna, an aspect of defaunation, can precipitate many ecological changes over short time scales. We examine whether megafauna loss can also explain features of lasting ecological state shifts that occurred as the Pleistocene gave way to the Holocene. We compare ecological impacts of late-Quaternary megafauna extinction in five American regions: southwestern Patagonia, the Pampas, northeastern United States, northwestern United States, and Beringia. We find that major ecological state shifts were consistent with expectations of defaunation in North American sites but not in South American ones. The differential responses highlight two factors necessary for defaunation to trigger lasting ecological state shifts discernable in the fossil record: (i) lost megafauna need to have been effective ecosystem engineers, like proboscideans; and (ii) historical contingencies must have provided the ecosystem with plant species likely to respond to megafaunal loss. These findings help in identifying modern ecosystems that are most at risk for disappearing should current pressures on the ecosystems' large animals continue and highlight the critical role of both individual species ecologies and ecosystem context in predicting the lasting impacts of defaunation currently underway.

Modelling marine community responses to climate-driven species redistribution to guide monitoring and adaptive ecosystem-based management.

PubMed

Marzloff, Martin Pierre; Melbourne-Thomas, Jessica; Hamon, Katell G; Hoshino, Eriko; Jennings, Sarah; van Putten, Ingrid E; Pecl, Gretta T

2016-07-01

As a consequence of global climate-driven changes, marine ecosystems are experiencing polewards redistributions of species - or range shifts - across taxa and throughout latitudes worldwide. Research on these range shifts largely focuses on understanding and predicting changes in the distribution of individual species. The ecological effects of marine range shifts on ecosystem structure and functioning, as well as human coastal communities, can be large, yet remain difficult to anticipate and manage. Here, we use qualitative modelling of system feedback to understand the cumulative impacts of multiple species shifts in south-eastern Australia, a global hotspot for ocean warming. We identify range-shifting species that can induce trophic cascades and affect ecosystem dynamics and productivity, and evaluate the potential effectiveness of alternative management interventions to mitigate these impacts. Our results suggest that the negative ecological impacts of multiple simultaneous range shifts generally add up. Thus, implementing whole-of-ecosystem management strategies and regular monitoring of range-shifting species of ecological concern are necessary to effectively intervene against undesirable consequences of marine range shifts at the regional scale. Our study illustrates how modelling system feedback with only limited qualitative information about ecosystem structure and range-shifting species can predict ecological consequences of multiple co-occurring range shifts, guide ecosystem-based adaptation to climate change and help prioritise future research and monitoring. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Regime Shift in an Exploited Fish Community Related to Natural Climate Oscillations.

PubMed

Auber, Arnaud; Travers-Trolet, Morgane; Villanueva, Maria Ching; Ernande, Bruno

2015-01-01

Identifying the various drivers of marine ecosystem regime shifts and disentangling their respective influence are critical tasks for understanding biodiversity dynamics and properly managing exploited living resources such as marine fish communities. Unfortunately, the mechanisms and forcing factors underlying regime shifts in marine fish communities are still largely unknown although climate forcing and anthropogenic pressures such as fishing have been suggested as key determinants. Based on a 24-year-long time-series of scientific surveys monitoring 55 fish and cephalopods species, we report here a rapid and persistent structural change in the exploited fish community of the eastern English Channel from strong to moderate dominance of small-bodied forage fish species with low temperature preferendum that occurred in the mid-1990s. This shift was related to a concomitant warming of the North Atlantic Ocean as attested by a switch of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation from a cold to a warm phase. Interestingly, observed changes in the fish community structure were opposite to those classically induced by exploitation as larger fish species of higher trophic level increased in abundance. Despite not playing a direct role in the regime shift, fishing still appeared as a forcing factor affecting community structure. Moreover, although related to climate, the regime shift may have been facilitated by strong historic exploitation that certainly primed the system by favoring the large dominance of small-bodied fish species that are particularly sensitive to climatic variations. These results emphasize that particular attention should be paid to multidecadal natural climate variability and its interactions with both fishing and climate warming when aiming at sustainable exploitation and ecosystem conservation.

Dynamical patterns and regime shifts in the nonlinear model of soil microorganisms growth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zaitseva, Maria; Vladimirov, Artem; Winter, Anna-Marie; Vasilyeva, Nadezda

2017-04-01

Dynamical model of soil microorganisms growth and turnover is formulated as a system of nonlinear partial differential equations of reaction-diffusion type. We consider spatial distributions of concentrations of several substrates and microorganisms. Biochemical reactions are modelled by chemical kinetic equations. Transport is modelled by simple linear diffusion for all chemical substances, while for microorganisms we use different transport functions, e.g. some of them can actively move along gradient of substrate concentration, while others cannot move. We solve our model in two dimensions, starting from uniform state with small initial perturbations for various parameters and find parameter range, where small initial perturbations grow and evolve. We search for bifurcation points and critical regime shifts in our model and analyze time-space profile and phase portraits of these solutions approaching critical regime shifts in the system, exploring possibility to detect such shifts in advance. This work is supported by NordForsk, project #81513.

Reconstruction of fire regimes through integrated paleoecological proxy data and ecological modeling.

PubMed

Iglesias, Virginia; Yospin, Gabriel I; Whitlock, Cathy

2014-01-01

Fire is a key ecological process affecting vegetation dynamics and land cover. The characteristic frequency, size, and intensity of fire are driven by interactions between top-down climate-driven and bottom-up fuel-related processes. Disentangling climatic from non-climatic drivers of past fire regimes is a grand challenge in Earth systems science, and a topic where both paleoecology and ecological modeling have made substantial contributions. In this manuscript, we (1) review the use of sedimentary charcoal as a fire proxy and the methods used in charcoal-based fire history reconstructions; (2) identify existing techniques for paleoecological modeling; and (3) evaluate opportunities for coupling of paleoecological and ecological modeling approaches to better understand the causes and consequences of past, present, and future fire activity.

Reconstruction of fire regimes through integrated paleoecological proxy data and ecological modeling

PubMed Central

Iglesias, Virginia; Yospin, Gabriel I.; Whitlock, Cathy

2015-01-01

Fire is a key ecological process affecting vegetation dynamics and land cover. The characteristic frequency, size, and intensity of fire are driven by interactions between top-down climate-driven and bottom-up fuel-related processes. Disentangling climatic from non-climatic drivers of past fire regimes is a grand challenge in Earth systems science, and a topic where both paleoecology and ecological modeling have made substantial contributions. In this manuscript, we (1) review the use of sedimentary charcoal as a fire proxy and the methods used in charcoal-based fire history reconstructions; (2) identify existing techniques for paleoecological modeling; and (3) evaluate opportunities for coupling of paleoecological and ecological modeling approaches to better understand the causes and consequences of past, present, and future fire activity. PMID:25657652

Antimicrobial resistance and biological governance: explanations for policy failure.

PubMed

Wallinga, D; Rayner, G; Lang, T

2015-10-01

The paper reviews the state of policy on antimicrobial use and the growth of antimicrobial resistance (AMR). AMR was anticipated at the time of the first use of antibiotics by their originators. For decades, reports and scientific papers have expressed concern about AMR at global and national policy levels, yet the problem, first exposed a half-century ago, worsened. The paper considers the explanations for this policy failure and the state of arguments about ways forward. These include: a deficit of economic incentivisation; complex interventions in behavioural dynamics; joint and separate shifts in medical and animal health regimes; consumerism; belief in technology; and a narrative that in a 'war on bugs' nature can be beaten by human ingenuity. The paper suggests that these narratives underplay the biological realities of the human-animal-biosphere being in constant flux, an understanding which requires an ecological public health analysis of AMR policy development and failure. The paper suggests that effective policy change requires simultaneous actions across policy levels. No single solution is possible, since AMR is the result of long-term human intervention which has accelerated certain trends in the evolution of a microbial ecosystem shared by humans, animals and other biological organisms inhabiting that ecosystem. Viewing the AMR crisis today through an ecological public health lens has the advantage of reuniting the social-ecological and bio-ecological perspectives which have been separated within public health. Copyright © 2015 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Density and spin modes in imbalanced normal Fermi gases from collisionless to hydrodynamic regime

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Narushima, Masato; Watabe, Shohei; Nikuni, Tetsuro

2018-03-01

We study the mass- and population-imbalance effect on density (in-phase) and spin (out-of-phase) collective modes in a two-component normal Fermi gas. By calculating the eigenmodes of the linearized Boltzmann equation as well as the density/spin dynamic structure factor, we show that mass- and population-imbalance effects offer a variety of collective mode crossover behaviors from collisionless to hydrodynamic regimes. The mass-imbalance effect shifts the crossover regime to the higher-temperature, and a significant peak of the spin dynamic structure factor emerges only in the collisionless regime. This is in contrast to the case of mass- and population-balanced normal Fermi gases, where the spin dynamic response is always absent. Although the population-imbalance effect does not shift the crossover regime, the spin dynamic structure factor survives both in the collisionless and hydrodynamic regimes.

Regimes of laser-induced periodic surface structure on germanium: radiation remnants and surface plasmons.

PubMed

Young, J F; Sipe, J E; van Driel, H M

1983-08-01

We present experimental evidence showing that the period of the rippled surface structure induced on germanium by 1.06-microm laser pulses undergoes a discontinuous shift above a certain threshold intensity. The measured shift, as a angle of incidence of the damaging beam, is quantitatively interpreted as a transition between a regime of inhomogeneous melting controlled by radiation-remnant field structures and a regime of ripple formation surface plasmons in an optically thick layer of liquid, metallic germanium formed at the surface.

Additive effects of mean temperature, temperature variability, and chlorothalonil to red-eyed treefrog (Agalychnis callidryas) larvae.

PubMed

Alza, Carissa M; Donnelly, Maureen A; Whitfield, Steven M

2016-12-01

Amphibian populations are declining globally, and multiple anthropogenic stressors, including contamination by pesticides and shifting climates, are driving these declines. Climate change may increase average temperatures or increase temperature variability, either of which may affect the susceptibility of nontarget organisms to contaminants. Eight-day ecotoxicological assays were conducted with red-eyed treefrog (Agalychnis callidryas) larvae to test for additive and interactive effects of exposure to the fungicide chlorothalonil, average temperature, and temperature variability on tadpole growth and survival. Egg masses were collected from seasonal ponds at La Selva Biological Station in Costa Rica, and tadpoles were exposed to a series of chlorothalonil concentrations across a range of ecologically relevant mean temperatures (23.4-27.3 °C) and daily temperature fluctuations (1.1-9.9 °C). Survival was measured each day, and tadpole growth was measured at the end of each trial. Concentrations of chlorothalonil ≥60 µg/L reduced survival, although survival was not affected by mean temperature or daily temperature range, and there were no synergistic interactions between chlorothalonil and temperature regime on survival. Chlorothalonil suppressed tadpole growth at relatively low concentrations (∼15 µg/L). There were impacts of both average temperature and daily temperature range on tadpole growth, although there were no synergistic interactions between temperature regimes and chlorothalonil. The results should inform efforts to manage ecosystems impacted by multiple large-scale anthropogenic stressors as well as methods for the design of ecologically appropriate toxicology trials. Environ Toxicol Chem 2016;35:2998-3004. © 2016 SETAC. © 2016 SETAC.

Disturbance regimes and the historical range and variation in terrestrial ecosystems

Treesearch

Robert Keane

2017-01-01

Disturbances are major drivers of ecological dynamics and it is the cumulative effects of disturbances across space and time that define a disturbance regime and dictate biodiversity by influencing the ranges of vegetation structures, compositions, and processes on landscapes. This range and variation of landscape characteristics under historical disturbance regimes...

Representing Sudden Shifts in Intensive Dyadic Interaction Data Using Differential Equation Models with Regime Switching.

PubMed

Chow, Sy-Miin; Ou, Lu; Ciptadi, Arridhana; Prince, Emily B; You, Dongjun; Hunter, Michael D; Rehg, James M; Rozga, Agata; Messinger, Daniel S

2018-06-01

A growing number of social scientists have turned to differential equations as a tool for capturing the dynamic interdependence among a system of variables. Current tools for fitting differential equation models do not provide a straightforward mechanism for diagnosing evidence for qualitative shifts in dynamics, nor do they provide ways of identifying the timing and possible determinants of such shifts. In this paper, we discuss regime-switching differential equation models, a novel modeling framework for representing abrupt changes in a system of differential equation models. Estimation was performed by combining the Kim filter (Kim and Nelson State-space models with regime switching: classical and Gibbs-sampling approaches with applications, MIT Press, Cambridge, 1999) and a numerical differential equation solver that can handle both ordinary and stochastic differential equations. The proposed approach was motivated by the need to represent discrete shifts in the movement dynamics of [Formula: see text] mother-infant dyads during the Strange Situation Procedure (SSP), a behavioral assessment where the infant is separated from and reunited with the mother twice. We illustrate the utility of a novel regime-switching differential equation model in representing children's tendency to exhibit shifts between the goal of staying close to their mothers and intermittent interest in moving away from their mothers to explore the room during the SSP. Results from empirical model fitting were supplemented with a Monte Carlo simulation study to evaluate the use of information criterion measures to diagnose sudden shifts in dynamics.

Predicting climate-driven regime shifts versus rebound potential in coral reefs.

PubMed

Graham, Nicholas A J; Jennings, Simon; MacNeil, M Aaron; Mouillot, David; Wilson, Shaun K

2015-02-05

Climate-induced coral bleaching is among the greatest current threats to coral reefs, causing widespread loss of live coral cover. Conditions under which reefs bounce back from bleaching events or shift from coral to algal dominance are unknown, making it difficult to predict and plan for differing reef responses under climate change. Here we document and predict long-term reef responses to a major climate-induced coral bleaching event that caused unprecedented region-wide mortality of Indo-Pacific corals. Following loss of >90% live coral cover, 12 of 21 reefs recovered towards pre-disturbance live coral states, while nine reefs underwent regime shifts to fleshy macroalgae. Functional diversity of associated reef fish communities shifted substantially following bleaching, returning towards pre-disturbance structure on recovering reefs, while becoming progressively altered on regime shifting reefs. We identified threshold values for a range of factors that accurately predicted ecosystem response to the bleaching event. Recovery was favoured when reefs were structurally complex and in deeper water, when density of juvenile corals and herbivorous fishes was relatively high and when nutrient loads were low. Whether reefs were inside no-take marine reserves had no bearing on ecosystem trajectory. Although conditions governing regime shift or recovery dynamics were diverse, pre-disturbance quantification of simple factors such as structural complexity and water depth accurately predicted ecosystem trajectories. These findings foreshadow the likely divergent but predictable outcomes for reef ecosystems in response to climate change, thus guiding improved management and adaptation.

Species' Traits as Predictors of Range Shifts Under Contemporary Climate Change: A Meta-analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

MacLean, S. A.; Beissinger, S. R.

2016-12-01

A growing body of literature seeks to explain variation in range shifts using species' ecological and life history traits, with expectations that shifts should be greater in species with greater dispersal ability, reproductive potential, and ecological generalization. If trait-based arguments, hold, then traits would provide valuable evidence-based tools for conservation and management that could increase the accuracy of future range projections, vulnerability assessments, and predictions of novel community assemblages. However, empirical support is limited in extent and consensus, and trait-based relationships remain largely unvalidated. We conducted a comprehensive literature review of species' traits as predictors of range shifts, collecting results from over 11,000 species' responses across multiple taxa from studies that directly compared 20th century and contemporary distributions for multispecies assemblages. We then performed a meta-analysis to calculate the mean study-level effects of body size, fecundity, diet breadth, habitat breadth, and historic range limit, while directly controlling for ecological and methodological heterogeneity across studies that could bias reported effect sizes. We show that ecological and life history traits have had limited success in accounting for variation among species in range shifts over the past century. Of the five traits analyzed, only habitat breadth and historic range limit consistently supported range shift predictions across multiple studies. Fecundity, body size, and diet breadth showed no clear relationship with range shifts, and some traits identified in our literature review (e.g. migratory ecology) have consistently contradicted range shift predictions. Current understanding of species' traits as predictors of range shifts is limited, and standardized study is needed before traits can be reliably incorporated into projections of climate change impacts.

Body size distributions signal a regime shift in a lake ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Communities of organisms, from mammals to microorganisms, have discontinuous distributions of body size. This pattern of size structuring is a conservative trait of community organization and is a product of processes that occur at multiple spatial and temporal scales. In this study, we assessed whether body size patterns serve as an indicator of a threshold between alternative regimes. Over the past 7000 years, the biological communities of Foy Lake (Montana,USA) have undergone a major regime shift owing to climate change. We used a palaeoecological record of diatom communities to estimate diatom sizes, and then analysed the discontinuous distribution of organism sizes over time. We used Bayesian classification and regression tree models to determine that all time intervals exhibited aggregations of sizes separated by gaps in the distribution and found a significant change in diatom body size distributions approximately 150 years before the identified ecosystem regime shift. We suggest that discontinuity analysis is a useful addition to the suite of tools for the detection of early warning signals of regime shifts. Communities of organisms from mammals to microorganisms have discontinuous distributions of body size. This pattern of size structuring is a conservative trait of community organization and is a product of processes that occur at discrete spatial and temporal scales within ecosystems. Here, a paleoecological record of diatom community change is use

The Role of Disturbance in Arctic Ecosystem Response to a Changing Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hinzman, L. D.

2014-12-01

Wildfires in the tundra regions and the boreal forest project an immediate effect upon the surface energy and water budget by drastically altering the surface albedo, roughness, infiltration rates, and moisture absorption capacity in organic soils. Although fires create a sudden and drastic change to the landcover, it is only the beginning of a long process of recovery and perhaps a shift to a different successional pathway. In permafrost regions, these effects become part of a process of long-term (20-50 years) cumulative impacts. Burn severity may largely determine immediate impacts and long-term disturbance trajectories. As transpiration decreases or ceases, soil moisture increases markedly, remaining quite wet throughout the year. Because the insulating quality of the organic layer is removed during fires, permafrost begins to thaw near the surface and warm to greater depths. Within a few years, it may thaw to the point where it can no longer completely refreeze every winter, creating a permanently thawed layer in the soil called a talik. After formation of a talik, soils can drain internally throughout the year. At this point, soils may become quite dry, as the total precipitation received annually in the Arctic is quite low. The local ecological community must continuously adapt to the changing soil thermal and moisture regimes. The wet soils found over shallow permafrost favor black spruce forests. After a fire creates a deeper permafrost table (thicker active layer) the invading tree species tend to be birch or alder. The hydrologic and thermal regime of the soil is the primary factor controlling these vegetation trajectories and the subsequent changes in surface mass and energy fluxes. The complexities of a changing climate accentuate these processes of change and complicate predictions of the resulting vegetation trajectories. Understanding these shifts in vegetative communities and quantifying the consequences of thawing permafrost can only be accomplished through complementary analyses of field research data and numerical simulations. The permafrost dramatically controls other landscape features and its dynamic response to thermal influences yield consequent effects on the surficial ecology, water and energy balances and regional climate.

Reconstructing Land Use History from Landsat Time-Series. Case study of Swidden Agriculture Intensification in Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dutrieux, L.; Jakovac, C. C.; Siti, L. H.; Kooistra, L.

2015-12-01

We developed a method to reconstruct land use history from Landsat images time-series. The method uses a breakpoint detection framework derived from the econometrics field and applicable to time-series regression models. The BFAST framework is used for defining the time-series regression models which may contain trend and phenology, hence appropriately modelling vegetation intra and inter-annual dynamics. All available Landsat data are used, and the time-series are partitioned into segments delimited by breakpoints. Segments can be associated to land use regimes, while the breakpoints then correspond to shifts in regimes. To further characterize these shifts, we classified the unlabelled breakpoints returned by the algorithm into their corresponding processes. We used a Random Forest classifier, trained from a set of visually interpreted time-series profiles to infer the processes and assign labels to the breakpoints. The whole approach was applied to quantifying the number of cultivation cycles in a swidden agriculture system in Brazil. Number and frequency of cultivation cycles is of particular ecological relevance in these systems since they largely affect the capacity of the forest to regenerate after abandonment. We applied the method to a Landsat time-series of Normalized Difference Moisture Index (NDMI) spanning the 1984-2015 period and derived from it the number of cultivation cycles during that period at the individual field scale level. Agricultural fields boundaries used to apply the method were derived using a multi-temporal segmentation. We validated the number of cultivation cycles predicted against in-situ information collected from farmers interviews, resulting in a Normalized RMSE of 0.25. Overall the method performed well, producing maps with coherent patterns. We identified various sources of error in the approach, including low data availability in the 90s and sub-object mixture of land uses. We conclude that the method holds great promise for land use history mapping in the tropics and beyond. Spatial and temporal patterns were further analysed with an ecological perspective in a follow-up study. Results show that changes in land use patterns such as land use intensification and reduced agricultural expansion reflect the socio-economic transformations that occurred in the region

Evidence for a regime shift in nitrogen export from a forested watershed

Treesearch

J. R. Webster; Jennifer Knoepp; Wayne Swank; Chelcy Miniat

2016-01-01

In this study, we document a functional regime shift in stream inorganic nitrogen (N) processing indicated by a major change in N export from a forested watershed. Evidence from 36 years of data following experimental clearcut logging at Coweeta Hydrologic Laboratory, NC, suggests that forest disturbance in this area can cause elevation of dissolved inorganic...

Modeling the Complex Impacts of Timber Harvests to Find Optimal Management Regimes for Amazon Tidal Floodplain Forests

PubMed Central

Fortini, Lucas B.; Cropper, Wendell P.; Zarin, Daniel J.

2015-01-01

At the Amazon estuary, the oldest logging frontier in the Amazon, no studies have comprehensively explored the potential long-term population and yield consequences of multiple timber harvests over time. Matrix population modeling is one way to simulate long-term impacts of tree harvests, but this approach has often ignored common impacts of tree harvests including incidental damage, changes in post-harvest demography, shifts in the distribution of merchantable trees, and shifts in stand composition. We designed a matrix-based forest management model that incorporates these harvest-related impacts so resulting simulations reflect forest stand dynamics under repeated timber harvests as well as the realities of local smallholder timber management systems. Using a wide range of values for management criteria (e.g., length of cutting cycle, minimum cut diameter), we projected the long-term population dynamics and yields of hundreds of timber management regimes in the Amazon estuary, where small-scale, unmechanized logging is an important economic activity. These results were then compared to find optimal stand-level and species-specific sustainable timber management (STM) regimes using a set of timber yield and population growth indicators. Prospects for STM in Amazonian tidal floodplain forests are better than for many other tropical forests. However, generally high stock recovery rates between harvests are due to the comparatively high projected mean annualized yields from fast-growing species that effectively counterbalance the projected yield declines from other species. For Amazonian tidal floodplain forests, national management guidelines provide neither the highest yields nor the highest sustained population growth for species under management. Our research shows that management guidelines specific to a region’s ecological settings can be further refined to consider differences in species demographic responses to repeated harvests. In principle, such fine-tuned management guidelines could make management more attractive, thus bridging the currently prevalent gap between tropical timber management practice and regulation. PMID:26322896

Modeling the complex impacts of timber harvests to find optimal management regimes for Amazon tidal floodplain forests

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fortini, Lucas B.; Cropper, Wendell P.; Zarin, Daniel J.

2015-01-01

At the Amazon estuary, the oldest logging frontier in the Amazon, no studies have comprehensively explored the potential long-term population and yield consequences of multiple timber harvests over time. Matrix population modeling is one way to simulate long-term impacts of tree harvests, but this approach has often ignored common impacts of tree harvests including incidental damage, changes in post-harvest demography, shifts in the distribution of merchantable trees, and shifts in stand composition. We designed a matrix-based forest management model that incorporates these harvest-related impacts so resulting simulations reflect forest stand dynamics under repeated timber harvests as well as the realities of local smallholder timber management systems. Using a wide range of values for management criteria (e.g., length of cutting cycle, minimum cut diameter), we projected the long-term population dynamics and yields of hundreds of timber management regimes in the Amazon estuary, where small-scale, unmechanized logging is an important economic activity. These results were then compared to find optimal stand-level and species-specific sustainable timber management (STM) regimes using a set of timber yield and population growth indicators. Prospects for STM in Amazonian tidal floodplain forests are better than for many other tropical forests. However, generally high stock recovery rates between harvests are due to the comparatively high projected mean annualized yields from fast-growing species that effectively counterbalance the projected yield declines from other species. For Amazonian tidal floodplain forests, national management guidelines provide neither the highest yields nor the highest sustained population growth for species under management. Our research shows that management guidelines specific to a region’s ecological settings can be further refined to consider differences in species demographic responses to repeated harvests. In principle, such fine-tuned management guidelines could make management more attractive, thus bridging the currently prevalent gap between tropical timber management practice and regulation.

Regime Shift by an Exotic Nitrogen-Fixing Shrub Mediates Plant Facilitation in Primary Succession

PubMed Central

Stinca, Adriano; Chirico, Giovanni Battista; Incerti, Guido; Bonanomi, Giuliano

2015-01-01

Ecosystem invasion by non-native, nitrogen-fixing species is a global phenomenon with serious ecological consequences. However, in the Mediterranean basin few studies addressed the impact of invasion by nitrogen-fixing shrubs on soil quality and hydrological properties at local scale, and the possible effects on succession dynamics and ecosystem invasibility by further species. In this multidisciplinary study we investigated the impact of Genista aetnensis (Biv.) DC., an exotic nitrogen-fixing shrub, on the Vesuvius Grand Cone (Southern Italy). Specifically, we tested the hypotheses that the invasion of G. aetnensis has a significant impact on soil quality, soil hydrological regime, local microclimate and plant community structure, and that its impact increases during the plant ontogenetic cycle. We showed that G. aetnensis, in a relatively short time-span (i.e. ~ 40 years), has been able to build-up an island of fertility under its canopy, by accumulating considerable stocks of C, N, and P in the soil, and by also improving the soil hydrological properties. Moreover, G. aetnensis mitigates the daily range of soil temperature, reducing the exposure of coexisting plants to extremely high temperatures and water loss by soil evaporation, particularly during the growing season. Such amelioration of soil quality, coupled with the mitigation of below-canopy microclimatic conditions, has enhanced plant colonization of the barren Grand Cone slopes, by both herbaceous and woody species. These results suggest that the invasion of G. aetnensis could eventually drive to the spread of other, more resource-demanding exotic species, promoting alternative successional trajectories that may dramatically affect the local landscape. Our study is the first record of the invasion of G. aetnensis, an additional example of the regime shifts driven by N-fixing shrubs in Mediterranean region. Further studies are needed to identity specific management practices that can limit the spread and impacts of this species. PMID:25835015

Detecting spatial regimes in ecosystems

EPA Science Inventory

Research on early warning indicators has generally focused on assessing temporal transitions with limited application of these methods to detecting spatial regimes. Traditional spatial boundary detection procedures that result in ecoregion maps are typically based on ecological ...

Fire and vegetation shifts in the Americas at the vanguard of Paleoindian migration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pinter, Nicholas; Fiedel, Stuart; Keeley, Jon E.

2011-02-01

Across North and South America, the final millennia of the Pleistocene saw dramatic changes in climate, vegetation, fauna, fire regime, and other local and regional paleo-environmental characteristics. Rapid climate shifts following the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) exerted a first-order influence, but abrupt post-glacial shifts in vegetation composition, vegetation structure, and fire regime also coincided with human arrival and transformative faunal extinctions in the Americas. We propose a model of post-glacial vegetation change in response to climatic drivers, punctuated by local fire regime shifts in response to megaherbivore-driven fuel changes and anthropogenic ignitions. The abrupt appearance of humans, disappearance of megaherbivores, and resulting changes in New World fire systems were transformative events that should not be dismissed in favor of climate-only interpretations of post-glacial paleo-environmental shifts in the Americas. Fire is a mechanism by which small human populations can have broad impacts, and growing evidence suggests that early anthropogenic influences on regional, even global, paleo-environments should be tested alongside other potential causal mechanisms.

Catastrophic Regime Shift in Water Reservoirs and São Paulo Water Supply Crisis.

PubMed

Coutinho, Renato M; Kraenkel, Roberto A; Prado, Paulo I

2015-01-01

The relation between rainfall and water accumulated in reservoirs comprises nonlinear feedbacks. Here we show that they may generate alternative equilibrium regimes, one of high water-volume, the other of low water-volume. Reservoirs can be seen as socio-environmental systems at risk of regime shifts, characteristic of tipping point transitions. We analyze data from stored water, rainfall, and water inflow and outflow in the main reservoir serving the metropolitan area of São Paulo, Brazil, by means of indicators of critical regime shifts, and find a strong signal of a transition. We furthermore build a mathematical model that gives a mechanistic view of the dynamics and demonstrates that alternative stable states are an expected property of water reservoirs. We also build a stochastic version of this model that fits well to the data. These results highlight the broader aspect that reservoir management must account for their intrinsic bistability, and should benefit from dynamical systems theory. Our case study illustrates the catastrophic consequences of failing to do so.

Global impacts of the 1980s regime shift.

PubMed

Reid, Philip C; Hari, Renata E; Beaugrand, Grégory; Livingstone, David M; Marty, Christoph; Straile, Dietmar; Barichivich, Jonathan; Goberville, Eric; Adrian, Rita; Aono, Yasuyuki; Brown, Ross; Foster, James; Groisman, Pavel; Hélaouët, Pierre; Hsu, Huang-Hsiung; Kirby, Richard; Knight, Jeff; Kraberg, Alexandra; Li, Jianping; Lo, Tzu-Ting; Myneni, Ranga B; North, Ryan P; Pounds, J Alan; Sparks, Tim; Stübi, René; Tian, Yongjun; Wiltshire, Karen H; Xiao, Dong; Zhu, Zaichun

2016-02-01

Despite evidence from a number of Earth systems that abrupt temporal changes known as regime shifts are important, their nature, scale and mechanisms remain poorly documented and understood. Applying principal component analysis, change-point analysis and a sequential t-test analysis of regime shifts to 72 time series, we confirm that the 1980s regime shift represented a major change in the Earth's biophysical systems from the upper atmosphere to the depths of the ocean and from the Arctic to the Antarctic, and occurred at slightly different times around the world. Using historical climate model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and statistical modelling of historical temperatures, we then demonstrate that this event was triggered by rapid global warming from anthropogenic plus natural forcing, the latter associated with the recovery from the El Chichón volcanic eruption. The shift in temperature that occurred at this time is hypothesized as the main forcing for a cascade of abrupt environmental changes. Within the context of the last century or more, the 1980s event was unique in terms of its global scope and scale; our observed consequences imply that if unavoidable natural events such as major volcanic eruptions interact with anthropogenic warming unforeseen multiplier effects may occur. © 2015 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Enhanced robustness of evolving open systems by the bidirectionality of interactions between elements.

PubMed

Ogushi, Fumiko; Kertész, János; Kaski, Kimmo; Shimada, Takashi

2017-08-01

Living organisms, ecosystems, and social systems are examples of complex systems in which robustness against inclusion of new elements is an essential feature. A recently proposed simple model has revealed a general mechanism by which such systems can become robust against inclusion of elements with totally random interactions when the elements have a moderate number of links. The interaction is, however, in many systems often intrinsically bidirectional like for mutual symbiosis and competition in ecology. This study reports the strong reinforcement effect of the bidirectionality of the interactions on the robustness of evolving systems. We show that the system with purely bidirectional interactions can grow with twofold average degree, in comparison with the purely unidirectional system. This drastic shift of the transition point comes from the reinforcement of each node, not from a change in structure of the emergent system. For systems with partially bidirectional interactions we find that the regime of the growing phase gets expanded. In the dense interaction regime, there exists an optimum proportion of bidirectional interactions for the growth rate at around 1/3. In the sparsely connected systems, small but finite fraction of bidirectional links can change the system's behaviour from non-growing to growing.

A Landscape-Scale, Applied Fire Management Experiment Promotes Recovery of a Population of the Threatened Gouldian Finch, Erythrura gouldiae, in Australia's Tropical Savannas.

PubMed

Legge, Sarah; Garnett, Stephen; Maute, Kim; Heathcote, Joanne; Murphy, Steve; Woinarski, John C Z; Astheimer, Lee

2015-01-01

Fire is an integral part of savanna ecology and changes in fire patterns are linked to biodiversity loss in savannas worldwide. In Australia, changed fire regimes are implicated in the contemporary declines of small mammals, riparian species, obligate-seeding plants and grass seed-eating birds. Translating this knowledge into management to recover threatened species has proved elusive. We report here on a landscape-scale experiment carried out by the Australian Wildlife Conservancy (AWC) on Mornington Wildlife Sanctuary in northwest Australia. The experiment was designed to understand the response of a key savanna bird guild to fire, and to use that information to manage fire with the aim of recovering a threatened species population. We compared condition indices among three seed-eating bird species--one endangered (Gouldian finch) and two non-threatened (long-tailed finch and double-barred finch)--from two large areas (> 2,830 km2) with initial contrasting fire regimes ('extreme': frequent, extensive, intense fire; versus 'benign': less frequent, smaller, lower intensity fires). Populations of all three species living with the extreme fire regime had condition indices that differed from their counterparts living with the benign fire regime, including higher haematocrit levels in some seasons (suggesting higher levels of activity required to find food), different seasonal haematocrit profiles, higher fat scores in the early wet season (suggesting greater food uncertainty), and then lower muscle scores later in the wet season (suggesting prolonged food deprivation). Gouldian finches also showed seasonally increasing stress hormone concentrations with the extreme fire regime. Cumulatively, these patterns indicated greater nutritional stress over many months for seed-eating birds exposed to extreme fire regimes. We tested these relationships by monitoring finch condition over the following years, as AWC implemented fire management to produce the 'benign' fire regime throughout the property. The condition indices of finch populations originally living with the extreme fire regime shifted to resemble those of their counterparts living with the benign fire regime. This research supports the hypothesis that fire regimes affect food resources for savanna seed-eating birds, with this impact mediated through a range of grass species utilised by the birds over different seasons, and that fire management can effectively moderate that impact. This work provides a rare example of applied research supporting the recovery of a population of a threatened species.

Population-reaction model and microbial experimental ecosystems for understanding hierarchical dynamics of ecosystems.

PubMed

Hosoda, Kazufumi; Tsuda, Soichiro; Kadowaki, Kohmei; Nakamura, Yutaka; Nakano, Tadashi; Ishii, Kojiro

2016-02-01

Understanding ecosystem dynamics is crucial as contemporary human societies face ecosystem degradation. One of the challenges that needs to be recognized is the complex hierarchical dynamics. Conventional dynamic models in ecology often represent only the population level and have yet to include the dynamics of the sub-organism level, which makes an ecosystem a complex adaptive system that shows characteristic behaviors such as resilience and regime shifts. The neglect of the sub-organism level in the conventional dynamic models would be because integrating multiple hierarchical levels makes the models unnecessarily complex unless supporting experimental data are present. Now that large amounts of molecular and ecological data are increasingly accessible in microbial experimental ecosystems, it is worthwhile to tackle the questions of their complex hierarchical dynamics. Here, we propose an approach that combines microbial experimental ecosystems and a hierarchical dynamic model named population-reaction model. We present a simple microbial experimental ecosystem as an example and show how the system can be analyzed by a population-reaction model. We also show that population-reaction models can be applied to various ecological concepts, such as predator-prey interactions, climate change, evolution, and stability of diversity. Our approach will reveal a path to the general understanding of various ecosystems and organisms. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of environmental flow requirements using eco-hydrologic-hydraulic methods in perennial rivers.

PubMed

Abdi, Reza; Yasi, Mehdi

2015-01-01

The assessment of environmental flows in rivers is of vital importance for preserving riverine ecosystem processes. This paper addresses the evaluation of environmental flow requirements in three reaches along a typical perennial river (the Zab transboundary river, in north-west Iran), using different hydraulic, hydrological and ecological methods. The main objective of this study came from the construction of three dams and inter-basin transfer of water from the Zab River to the Urmia Lake. Eight hydrological methods (i.e. Tennant, Tessman, flow duration curve analysis, range of variability approach, Smakhtin, flow duration curve shifting, desktop reserve and 7Q2&10 (7-day low flow with a 2- and 10-year return period)); two hydraulic methods (slope value and maximum curvature); and two habitat simulation methods (hydraulic-ecologic, and Q Equation based on water quality indices) were used. Ecological needs of the riverine key species (mainly Barbus capito fish), river geometries, natural flow regime and the environmental status of river management were the main indices for determining the minimum flow requirements. The results indicate that the order of 35%, 17% and 18% of the mean annual flow are to be maintained for the upper, middle and downstream river reaches, respectively. The allocated monthly flow rates in the three Dams steering program are not sufficient to preserve the Zab River life.

Records of pan (floodplain wetland) sedimentation as an approach for post-hoc investigation of the hydrological impacts of dam impoundment: The Pongolo river, KwaZulu-Natal.

PubMed

Heath, S K; Plater, A J

2010-07-01

River impoundment by dams has far-reaching consequences for downstream floodplains in terms of hydrology, water quality, geomorphology, ecology and ecosystem services. With the imperative of economic development, there is the danger that potential environmental impacts are not assessed adequately or monitored appropriately. Here, an investigation of sediment composition of two pans (floodplain wetlands) in the Pongolo River floodplain, KwaZulu-Natal, downstream of the Pongolapoort dam constructed in 1974, is considered as a method for post-hoc assessment of the impacts on river hydrology, sediment supply and water quality. Bumbe and Sokhunti pans have contrasting hydrological regimes in terms of their connection to the main Pongolo channel - Bumbe is a shallow ephemeral pan and Sokhunti is a deep, perennial water body. The results of X-ray fluorescence (XRF) geochemical analysis of their sediment records over a depth of >1 m show that whilst the two pans exhibit similar sediment composition and variability in their lower part, Bumbe pan exhibits a shift toward increased fine-grained mineral supply and associated nutrient influx at a depth of c. 45 cm whilst Sokhunti pan is characterised by increased biogenic productivity at a depth of c. 26 cm due to enhanced nutrient status. The underlying cause is interpreted as a shift in hydrology to a 'post-dam' flow regime of reduced flood frequencies with more regular baseline flows which reduce the average flow velocity. In addition, Sokhunti shows a greater sensitivity to soil influx during flood events due to the nature of its 'background' of autochthonous biogenic sedimentation. The timing of the overall shift in sediment composition and the dates of the mineral inwash events are not well defined, but the potential for these wetlands as sensitive recorders of dam-induced changes in floodplain hydrology, especially those with a similar setting to Sokhunti pan, is clearly demonstrated. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Heat waves and their significance for a temperate benthic community: A near-natural experimental approach.

PubMed

Pansch, Christian; Scotti, Marco; Barboza, Francisco R; Al-Janabi, Balsam; Brakel, Janina; Briski, Elizabeta; Bucholz, Björn; Franz, Markus; Ito, Maysa; Paiva, Filipa; Saha, Mahasweta; Sawall, Yvonne; Weinberger, Florian; Wahl, Martin

2018-04-23

Climate change will not only shift environmental means but will also increase the intensity of extreme events, exerting additional stress on ecosystems. While field observations on the ecological consequences of heat waves are emerging, experimental evidence is rare, and lacking at the community level. Using a novel "near-natural" outdoor mesocosms approach, this study tested whether marine summer heat waves have detrimental consequences for macrofauna of a temperate coastal community, and whether sequential heat waves provoke an increase or decrease of sensitivity to thermal stress. Three treatments were applied, defined and characterized through a statistical analysis of 15 years of temperature records from the experimental site: (1) no heat wave, (2) two heat waves in June and July followed by a summer heat wave in August and (3) the summer heat wave only. Overall, 50% of the species showed positive, negative or positive/negative responses in either abundance and/or biomass. We highlight four possible ways in which single species responded to either three subsequent heat waves or one summer heat wave: (1) absence of a response (tolerance, 50% of species), (2) negative accumulative effects by three subsequent heat waves (tellinid bivalve), (3) buffering by proceeding heat waves due to acclimation and/or shifts in phenology (spionid polychaete) and (4) an accumulative positive effect by subsequent heat waves (amphipod). The differential responses to single or sequential heat waves at the species level entailed shifts at the community level. Community-level differences between single and triple heat waves were more pronounced than those between regimes with vs. without heat waves. Detritivory was reduced by the single heat wave while suspension feeding was less common in the triple heat wave regime. Critical extreme events occur already today and will occur more frequently in a changing climate, thus, leading to detrimental impacts on coastal marine systems. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

From the stand-scale to the landscape-scale: predicting the spatial patterns of forest regeneration after disturbance.

PubMed

Shive, Kristen L; Preisler, Haiganoush K; Welch, Kevin R; Safford, Hugh D; Butz, Ramona J; O'Hara, Kevin L; Stephens, Scott L

2018-05-29

Shifting disturbance regimes can have cascading effects on many ecosystems processes. This is particularly true when the scale of the disturbance no longer matches the regeneration strategy of the dominant vegetation. In the yellow pine and mixed conifer forests of California, over a century of fire exclusion and the warming climate are increasing the incidence and extent of stand-replacing wildfire; such changes in severity patterns are altering regeneration dynamics by dramatically increasing the distance from live tree seed sources. This has raised concerns about limitations to natural reforestation and the potential for conversion to non-forested vegetation types, which in turn has implications for shifts in many ecological processes and ecosystem services. We used a California region-wide dataset with 1,848 plots across 24 wildfires in yellow pine and mixed conifer forests to build a spatially-explicit habitat suitability model for forecasting postfire forest regeneration. To model the effect of seed availability, the critical initial biological filter for regeneration, we used a novel approach to predicting spatial patterns of seed availability by estimating annual seed production from existing basal area and burn severity maps. The probability of observing any conifer seedling in a 60m 2 area (the field plot scale) was highly dependent on 30-year average annual precipitation, burn severity and seed availability. We then used this model to predict regeneration probabilities across the entire extent of a "new' fire (the 2014 King Fire), which highlights the spatial variability inherent in postfire regeneration patterns. Such accurate forecasts of postfire regeneration patterns are of importance to land managers and conservationists interested in maintaining forest cover on the landscape. Our tool can also help anticipate shifts in ecosystem properties, supporting researchers interested in investigating questions surrounding alternative stable states, and the interaction of altered disturbance regimes and the changing climate. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Design of a naturalized flow regime—An example from the Lower Missouri River, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jacobson, Robert B.; Galat, David L.

2008-01-01

 group of river managers, stakeholders, and scientists met during summer 2005 to design a more naturalized flow regime for the Lower Missouri River (LMOR). The objective was to comply with requirements under the U.S. Endangered Species Act to support reproduction and survival of threatened and endangered species, with emphasis on the endangered pallid sturgeon (Scaphirhynchus albus), while minimizing negative effects to existing social and economic benefits of prevailing river management. Specific hydrograph requirements for pallid sturgeon reproduction are unknown, hence much of the design process was based on features of the natural flow regime. Environmental flow components (EFCs) extracted from the reference natural flow regime were used to design and assess performance of alternative flow regimes.The design process incorporated a primary stage in which conceptual hydrographs were developed and assessed for their general ecological and social-economic performance. The second stage accounted for hydroclimatic variation by coding the conceptual hydrographs into reservoir release rules, adding constraints for downstream flooding and low-storage precludes, and running the rules through 100 years of hydroclimatic simulation. The output flow regimes were then evaluated for presumed ecological benefits based on how closely they resembled EFCs in the reference natural flow regime. Flow regimes also were assessed for social-economic cost indicators, including days of flooding of low-lying agricultural land, days over flood stage, and storage levels in system reservoirs.Our experience with flow-regime design on the LMOR underscored the lack of confidence the stakeholders place in the value of the natural flow regime as a measure of ecosystem benefit in the absence of fundamental scientific documentation. Stakeholders desired proof of ecological benefits commensurate with the certainty of economic losses. We also gained insight into the processes of integrating science into a collaborative management exercise. Although the 2005 collaborative effort failed to reach a consensus among stakeholders on a naturalized flow regime, the process was successful in pilot-testing a design approach; it helped focus scienctific efforts on key knowledge gaps; and it demonstrated the potential for collaborations among scientists, stakeholders, and managers in river management decision making.

Historical disturbance regimes as a reference for forest policy. in a multiowner province: a simulation experiment

Treesearch

Jonathan R. Thompson; K. Norman Johnson; Marie Lennette; Thomas A. Spies; Pete Bettinger

2006-01-01

Using a landscape simulation model, we examined ecological and economic implications of forest policies designed to emulate the historical fire regime across the 2 x 106 ha Oregon Coast Range. Simulated policies included two variants of the current policy and three policies reflecting aspects of the historical fire regime. Policy development was...

The role of windstorm exposure and yellow cedar decline on landslide susceptibility in southeast Alaskan temperate rainforests

Treesearch

Brian Buma; Adelaide C. Johnson

2015-01-01

Interactions between ecological disturbances have the potential to alter other disturbances and their associated regimes, such as the likelihood, severity, and extent of events. The influence of exposure to wind and yellow cedar decline on the landslide regime of Alaskan temperate rainforests was explored using presence-only modeling techniques. The wind regime was...

Evaluating trophic cascades as drivers of regime shifts in different ocean ecosystems

PubMed Central

Pershing, Andrew J.; Mills, Katherine E.; Record, Nicholas R.; Stamieszkin, Karen; Wurtzell, Katharine V.; Byron, Carrie J.; Fitzpatrick, Dominic; Golet, Walter J.; Koob, Elise

2015-01-01

In ecosystems that are strongly structured by predation, reducing top predator abundance can alter several lower trophic levels—a process known as a trophic cascade. A persistent trophic cascade also fits the definition of a regime shift. Such ‘trophic cascade regime shifts' have been reported in a few pelagic marine systems—notably the Black Sea, Baltic Sea and eastern Scotian Shelf—raising the question of how common this phenomenon is in the marine environment. We provide a general methodology for distinguishing top-down and bottom-up effects and apply this methodology to time series from these three ecosystems. We found evidence for top-down forcing in the Black Sea due primarily to gelatinous zooplankton. Changes in the Baltic Sea are primarily bottom-up, strongly structured by salinity, but top-down forcing related to changes in cod abundance also shapes the ecosystem. Changes in the eastern Scotian Shelf that were originally attributed to declines in groundfish are better explained by changes in stratification. Our review suggests that trophic cascade regime shifts are rare in open ocean ecosystems and that their likelihood increases as the residence time of water in the system increases. Our work challenges the assumption that negative correlation between consecutive trophic levels implies top-down forcing.

Correlated evolution of stem and leaf hydraulic traits in Pereskia (Cactaceae).

PubMed

Edwards, Erika J

2006-01-01

Recent studies have demonstrated significant correlations between stem and leaf hydraulic properties when comparing across species within ecological communities. This implies that these traits are co-evolving, but there have been few studies addressing plant water relations within an explicitly evolutionary framework. This study tests for correlated evolution among a suite of plant water-use traits and environmental parameters in seven species of Pereskia (Cactaceae), using phylogenetically independent contrasts. There were significant evolutionary correlations between leaf-specific xylem hydraulic conductivity, Huber Value, leaf stomatal pore index, leaf venation density and leaf size, but none of these traits appeared to be correlated with environmental water availability; only two water relations traits - mid-day leaf water potentials and photosynthetic water use efficiency - correlated with estimates of moisture regime. In Pereskia, it appears that many stem and leaf hydraulic properties thought to be critical to whole-plant water use have not evolved in response to habitat shifts in water availability. This may be because of the extremely conservative stomatal behavior and particular rooting strategy demonstrated by all Pereskia species investigated. These results highlight the need for a lineage-based approach to understand the relative roles of functional traits in ecological adaptation.

Global warming transforms coral reef assemblages.

PubMed

Hughes, Terry P; Kerry, James T; Baird, Andrew H; Connolly, Sean R; Dietzel, Andreas; Eakin, C Mark; Heron, Scott F; Hoey, Andrew S; Hoogenboom, Mia O; Liu, Gang; McWilliam, Michael J; Pears, Rachel J; Pratchett, Morgan S; Skirving, William J; Stella, Jessica S; Torda, Gergely

2018-04-01

Global warming is rapidly emerging as a universal threat to ecological integrity and function, highlighting the urgent need for a better understanding of the impact of heat exposure on the resilience of ecosystems and the people who depend on them 1 . Here we show that in the aftermath of the record-breaking marine heatwave on the Great Barrier Reef in 2016 2 , corals began to die immediately on reefs where the accumulated heat exposure exceeded a critical threshold of degree heating weeks, which was 3-4 °C-weeks. After eight months, an exposure of 6 °C-weeks or more drove an unprecedented, regional-scale shift in the composition of coral assemblages, reflecting markedly divergent responses to heat stress by different taxa. Fast-growing staghorn and tabular corals suffered a catastrophic die-off, transforming the three-dimensionality and ecological functioning of 29% of the 3,863 reefs comprising the world's largest coral reef system. Our study bridges the gap between the theory and practice of assessing the risk of ecosystem collapse, under the emerging framework for the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List of Ecosystems 3 , by rigorously defining both the initial and collapsed states, identifying the major driver of change, and establishing quantitative collapse thresholds. The increasing prevalence of post-bleaching mass mortality of corals represents a radical shift in the disturbance regimes of tropical reefs, both adding to and far exceeding the influence of recurrent cyclones and other local pulse events, presenting a fundamental challenge to the long-term future of these iconic ecosystems.

Coastal regime shifts: rapid responses of coastal wetlands to changes in mangrove cover.

PubMed

Guo, Hongyu; Weaver, Carolyn; Charles, Sean P; Whitt, Ashley; Dastidar, Sayantani; D'Odorico, Paolo; Fuentes, Jose D; Kominoski, John S; Armitage, Anna R; Pennings, Steven C

2017-03-01

Global changes are causing broad-scale shifts in vegetation communities worldwide, including coastal habitats where the borders between mangroves and salt marsh are in flux. Coastal habitats provide numerous ecosystem services of high economic value, but the consequences of variation in mangrove cover are poorly known. We experimentally manipulated mangrove cover in large plots to test a set of linked hypotheses regarding the effects of changes in mangrove cover. We found that changes in mangrove cover had strong effects on microclimate, plant community, sediment accretion, soil organic content, and bird abundance within 2 yr. At higher mangrove cover, wind speed declined and light interception by vegetation increased. Air and soil temperatures had hump-shaped relationships with mangrove cover. The cover of salt marsh plants decreased at higher mangrove cover. Wrack cover, the distance that wrack was distributed from the water's edge, and sediment accretion decreased at higher mangrove cover. Soil organic content increased with mangrove cover. Wading bird abundance decreased at higher mangrove cover. Many of these relationships were non-linear, with the greatest effects when mangrove cover varied from zero to intermediate values, and lesser effects when mangrove cover varied from intermediate to high values. Temporal and spatial variation in measured variables often peaked at intermediate mangrove cover, with ecological consequences that are largely unexplored. Because different processes varied in different ways with mangrove cover, the "optimum" cover of mangroves from a societal point of view will depend on which ecosystem services are most desired. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

Tracking of climatic niche boundaries under recent climate change.

PubMed

La Sorte, Frank A; Jetz, Walter

2012-07-01

1. Global climate has changed significantly during the past 30 years and especially in northern temperate regions which have experienced poleward shifts in temperature regimes. While there is evidence that some species have responded by moving their distributions to higher latitudes, the efficiency of this response in tracking species' climatic niche boundaries over time has yet to be addressed. 2. Here, we provide a continental assessment of the temporal structure of species responses to recent spatial shifts in climatic conditions. We examined geographic associations with minimum winter temperature for 59 species of winter avifauna at 476 Christmas Bird Count circles in North America from 1975 to 2009 under three sampling schemes that account for spatial and temporal sampling effects. 3. Minimum winter temperature associated with species occurrences showed an overall increase with a weakening trend after 1998. Species displayed highly variable responses that, on average and across sampling schemes, contained a strong lag effect that weakened in strength over time. In general, the conservation of minimum winter temperature was relevant when all species were considered together but only after an initial lag period (c. 35 years) was overcome. The delayed niche tracking observed at the combined species level was likely supported by the post1998 lull in the warming trend. 4. There are limited geographic and ecological explanations for the observed variability, suggesting that the efficiency of species' responses under climate change is likely to be highly idiosyncratic and difficult to predict. This outcome is likely to be even more pronounced and time lags more persistent for less vagile taxa, particularly during the periods of consistent or accelerating warming. Current modelling efforts and conservation strategies need to better appreciate the variation, strength and duration of lag effects and their association with climatic variability. Conservation strategies in particular will benefit through identifying and maintaining dispersal corridors that accommodate diverging dispersal strategies and timetables. © 2012 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2012 British Ecological Society.

Impact of the terrestrial-aquatic transition on disparity and rates of evolution in the carnivoran skull.

PubMed

Jones, Katrina E; Smaers, Jeroen B; Goswami, Anjali

2015-02-04

Which factors influence the distribution patterns of morphological diversity among clades? The adaptive radiation model predicts that a clade entering new ecological niche will experience high rates of evolution early in its history, followed by a gradual slowing. Here we measure disparity and rates of evolution in Carnivora, specifically focusing on the terrestrial-aquatic transition in Pinnipedia. We analyze fissiped (mostly terrestrial, arboreal, and semi-arboreal, but also including the semi-aquatic otter) and pinniped (secondarily aquatic) carnivorans as a case study of an extreme ecological transition. We used 3D geometric morphometrics to quantify cranial shape in 151 carnivoran specimens (64 fissiped, 87 pinniped) and five exceptionally-preserved fossil pinnipeds, including the stem-pinniped Enaliarctos emlongi. Range-based and variance-based disparity measures were compared between pinnipeds and fissipeds. To distinguish between evolutionary modes, a Brownian motion model was compared to selective regime shifts associated with the terrestrial-aquatic transition and at the base of Pinnipedia. Further, evolutionary patterns were estimated on individual branches using both Ornstein-Uhlenbeck and Independent Evolution models, to examine the origin of pinniped diversity. Pinnipeds exhibit greater cranial disparity than fissipeds, even though they are less taxonomically diverse and, as a clade nested within fissipeds, phylogenetically younger. Despite this, there is no increase in the rate of morphological evolution at the base of Pinnipedia, as would be predicted by an adaptive radiation model, and a Brownian motion model of evolution is supported. Instead basal pinnipeds populated new areas of morphospace via low to moderate rates of evolution in new directions, followed by later bursts within the crown-group, potentially associated with ecological diversification within the marine realm. The transition to an aquatic habitat in carnivorans resulted in a shift in cranial morphology without an increase in rate in the stem lineage, contra to the adaptive radiation model. Instead these data suggest a release from evolutionary constraint model, followed by aquatic diversifications within crown families.

Artificial light at night alters trophic interactions of intertidal invertebrates.

PubMed

Underwood, Charlotte N; Davies, Thomas W; Queirós, Ana M

2017-07-01

Despite being globally widespread in coastal regions, the impacts of light pollution on intertidal ecosystems has received little attention. Intertidal species exhibit many night-time-dependent ecological strategies, including feeding, reproduction, orientation and predator avoidance, which are likely negatively affected by shifting light regimes, as has been observed in terrestrial and aquatic taxa. Coastal lighting may shape intertidal communities through its influence on the nocturnal foraging activity of dogwhelks (Nucella lapillus), a widespread predatory mollusc that structures biodiversity in temperate rocky shores. In the laboratory, we investigated whether the basal and foraging activity of this predator was affected by exposure to night-time lighting both in the presence and absence of olfactory predator cues (Carcinus maenas, common shore crab). Assessments of dogwhelks' behavioural responses to night-time white LED lighting were performed on individuals that had been acclimated to night-time white LED lighting conditions for 16 days and individuals that had not previously been exposed to artificial light at night. Dogwhelks acclimated to night-time lighting exhibited natural refuge-seeking behaviour less often compared to control animals, but were more likely to respond to and handle prey irrespective of whether olfactory predator cues were present. These responses suggest night-time lighting likely increased the energetic demand of dogwhelks through stress, encouraging foraging whenever food was available, regardless of potential danger. Contrastingly, whelks not acclimated under night-time lighting were more likely to respond to the presence of prey under artificial light at night when olfactory predator cues were present, indicating an opportunistic shift towards the use of visual instead of olfactory cues in risk evaluation. These results demonstrate that artificial night-time lighting influences the behaviour of intertidal fauna such that the balance of interspecific interactions involved in community structuring may be affected. © 2017 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2017 British Ecological Society.

Climate change implications in the northern coastal temperate rainforest of North America

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shanley, Colin S.; Pyare, Sanjay; Goldstein, Michael I.; Alaback, Paul B.; Albert, David M.; Beier, Colin M.; Brinkman, Todd J.; Edwards, Rick T.; Hood, Eran; MacKinnon, Andy; McPhee, Megan V.; Patterson, Trista; Suring, Lowell H.; Tallmon, David; Wipfli, Mark S.

2015-01-01

We synthesized an expert review of climate change implications for hydroecological and terrestrial ecological systems in the northern coastal temperate rainforest of North America. Our synthesis is based on an analysis of projected temperature, precipitation, and snowfall stratified by eight biogeoclimatic provinces and three vegetation zones. Five IPCC CMIP5 global climate models (GCMs) and two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) are the basis for projections of mean annual temperature increasing from a current average (1961–1990) of 3.2 °C to 4.9–6.9 °C (5 GCM range; RCP4.5 scenario) or 6.4–8.7 °C (RCP8.5), mean annual precipitation increasing from 3130 mm to 3210–3400 mm (3–9 % increase) or 3320–3690 mm (6–18 % increase), and total precipitation as snow decreasing from 1200 mm to 940–720 mm (22–40 % decrease) or 720–500 mm (40–58 % decrease) by the 2080s (2071–2100; 30-year normal period). These projected changes are anticipated to result in a cascade of ecosystem-level effects including: increased frequency of flooding and rain-on-snow events; an elevated snowline and reduced snowpack; changes in the timing and magnitude of stream flow, freshwater thermal regimes, and riverine nutrient exports; shrinking alpine habitats; altitudinal and latitudinal expansion of lowland and subalpine forest types; shifts in suitable habitat boundaries for vegetation and wildlife communities; adverse effects on species with rare ecological niches or limited dispersibility; and shifts in anadromous salmon distribution and productivity. Our collaborative synthesis of potential impacts highlights the coupling of social and ecological systems that characterize the region as well as a number of major information gaps to help guide assessments of future conditions and adaptive capacity.

A Framework to Assess the Cumulative Hydrological Impacts of Dams on flow Regime

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Y.; Wang, D.

2016-12-01

In this study we proposed a framework to assess the cumulative impact of dams on hydrological regime, and the impacts of the Three Gorges Dam on flow regime in Yangtze River were investigated with the framework. We reconstructed the unregulated flow series to compare with the regulated flow series in the same period. Eco-surplus and eco-deficit and the Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration parameters were used to examine the hydrological regime change. Among IHA parameters, Wilcoxon signed-rank test and Principal Components Analysis identified the representative indicators of hydrological alterations. Eco-surplus and eco-deficit showed that the reservoir also changed the seasonal regime of the flows in autumn and winter. Annual extreme flows and October flows changes lead to negative ecological implications downstream from the Three Gorges Dam. Ecological operation for the Three Gorges Dam is necessary to mitigate the negative effects on the river ecosystem in the middle reach of Yangtze River. The framework proposed here could be a robust method to assess the cumulative impacts of reservoir operation.

Pyrodiversity is the coupling of biodiversity and fire regimes in food webs

PubMed Central

Higgins, Steve I.; Johnson, Chris N.; Fuhlendorf, Samuel D.

2016-01-01

Fire positively and negatively affects food webs across all trophic levels and guilds and influences a range of ecological processes that reinforce fire regimes, such as nutrient cycling and soil development, plant regeneration and growth, plant community assembly and dynamics, herbivory and predation. Thus we argue that rather than merely describing spatio-temporal patterns of fire regimes, pyrodiversity must be understood in terms of feedbacks between fire regimes, biodiversity and ecological processes. Humans shape pyrodiversity both directly, by manipulating the intensity, severity, frequency and extent of fires, and indirectly, by influencing the abundance and distribution of various trophic guilds through hunting and husbandry of animals, and introduction and cultivation of plant species. Conceptualizing landscape fire as deeply embedded in food webs suggests that the restoration of degraded ecosystems requires the simultaneous careful management of fire regimes and native and invasive plants and animals, and may include introducing new vertebrates to compensate for extinctions that occurred in the recent and more distant past. This article is part of the themed issue ‘The interaction of fire and mankind’. PMID:27216526

The role of fuels for understanding fire behavior and fire effects

Treesearch

E. Louise Loudermilk; J. Kevin Hiers; Joseph J. O' Brien

2018-01-01

Fire ecology, which has emerged as a critical discipline, links the complex interactions that occur between fire regimes and ecosystems. The ecology of fuels, a first principle in fire ecology, identifies feedbacks between vegetation and fire behavior-a cyclic process that starts with fuels influencing fire behavior, which in turn governs patterns of postfire...

Predicting ecological flow regime at ungaged sites: A comparison of methods

USGS Publications Warehouse

Murphy, Jennifer C.; Knight, Rodney R.; Wolfe, William J.; Gain, W. Scott

2012-01-01

Nineteen ecologically relevant streamflow characteristics were estimated using published rainfall–runoff and regional regression models for six sites with observed daily streamflow records in Kentucky. The regional regression model produced median estimates closer to the observed median for all but two characteristics. The variability of predictions from both models was generally less than the observed variability. The variability of the predictions from the rainfall–runoff model was greater than that from the regional regression model for all but three characteristics. Eight characteristics predicted by the rainfall–runoff model display positive or negative bias across all six sites; biases are not as pronounced for the regional regression model. Results suggest that a rainfall–runoff model calibrated on a single characteristic is less likely to perform well as a predictor of a range of other characteristics (flow regime) when compared with a regional regression model calibrated individually on multiple characteristics used to represent the flow regime. Poor model performance may misrepresent hydrologic conditions, potentially distorting the perceived risk of ecological degradation. Without prior selection of streamflow characteristics, targeted calibration, and error quantification, the widespread application of general hydrologic models to ecological flow studies is problematic. Published 2012. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

THE SHIFTING BASELINE OF NORTHERN FUR SEAL ECOLOGY IN THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC OCEAN

EPA Science Inventory

Historical data provide a baseline against which to judge the significance of recent ecological shifts and guide conservation strategies, especially for species decimated by pre-20th century harvesting. Northern fur seals (NFS; Callorhinus ursinus) are a common pinniped species i...

A transition to white LED increases ecological impacts of nocturnal illumination on aquatic primary producers in a lowland agricultural drainage ditch.

PubMed

Grubisic, Maja; van Grunsven, Roy H A; Manfrin, Alessandro; Monaghan, Michael T; Hölker, Franz

2018-05-14

The increasing use of artificial light at night (ALAN) has led to exposure of freshwater ecosystems to light pollution worldwide. Simultaneously, the spectral composition of nocturnal illumination is changing, following the current shift in outdoor lighting technologies from traditional light sources to light emitting diodes (LED). LEDs emit broad-spectrum white light, with a significant amount of photosynthetically active radiation, and typically a high content of blue light that regulates circadian rhythms in many organisms. While effects of the shift to LED have been investigated in nocturnal animals, its impact on primary producers is unknown. We performed three field experiments in a lowland agricultural drainage ditch to assess the impacts of a transition from high-pressure sodium (HPS) to white LED illumination (color temperature 4000 K) on primary producers in periphyton. In all experiments, we compared biomass and pigment composition of periphyton grown under a natural light regime to that of periphyton exposed to nocturnal HPS or, consecutively, LED light of intensities commonly found in urban waters (approximately 20 lux). Periphyton was collected in time series (1-13 weeks). We found no effect of HPS light on periphyton biomass; however, following a shift to LED the biomass decreased up to 62%. Neither light source had a substantial effect on pigment composition. The contrasting effects of the two light sources on biomass may be explained by differences in their spectral composition, and in particular the blue content. Our results suggest that spectral composition of the light source plays a role in determining the impacts of ALAN on periphyton and that the ongoing transition to LED may increase the ecological impacts of artificial lighting on aquatic primary producers. Reduced biomass in the base of the food web can impact ecosystem functions such as productivity and food supply for higher trophic levels in nocturnally-lit ecosystems. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Descriptors of natural thermal regimes in streams and their responsiveness to change in the Pacific Northwest of North America

Treesearch

Ivan Arismendi; Sherri L. Johnson; Jason B. Dunham; Roy Haggerty

2013-01-01

1. Temperature is a major driver of ecological processes in stream ecosystems, yet the dynamics of thermal regimes remain poorly described. Most work has focused on relatively simple descriptors that fail to capture the full range of conditions that characterise thermal regimes of streams across seasons or throughout the year.2. To more...

Shift in a Large River Fish Assemblage: Body-Size and Trophic Structure Dynamics

PubMed Central

Broadway, Kyle J.; Pyron, Mark; Gammon, James R.; Murry, Brent A.

2015-01-01

As the intensity and speed of environmental change increase at both local and global scales it is imperative that we gain a better understanding of the ecological implications of community shifts. While there has been substantial progress toward understanding the drivers and subsequent responses of community change (e.g. lake trophic state), the ecological impacts of food web changes are far less understood. We analyzed Wabash River fish assemblage data collected from 1974-2008, to evaluate temporal variation in body-size structure and functional group composition. Two parameters derived from annual community size-spectra were our major response variables: (1) the regression slope is an index of ecological efficiency and predator-prey biomass ratios, and (2) spectral elevation (regression midpoint height) is a proxy for food web capacity. We detected a large assemblage shift, over at least a seven year period, defined by dramatic changes in abundance (measured as catch-per-unit-effort) of the dominant functional feeding groups among two time periods; from an assemblage dominated by planktivore-omnivores to benthic invertivores. There was a concurrent increase in ecological efficiency (slopes increased over time) following the shift associated with an increase in large-bodied low trophic level fish. Food web capacity remained relatively stable with no clear temporal trends. Thus, increased ecological efficiency occurred simultaneous to a compensatory response that shifted biomass among functional feeding groups. PMID:25902144

An algorithm for engineering regime shifts in one-dimensional dynamical systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tan, James P. L.

2018-01-01

Regime shifts are discontinuous transitions between stable attractors hosting a system. They can occur as a result of a loss of stability in an attractor as a bifurcation is approached. In this work, we consider one-dimensional dynamical systems where attractors are stable equilibrium points. Relying on critical slowing down signals related to the stability of an equilibrium point, we present an algorithm for engineering regime shifts such that a system may escape an undesirable attractor into a desirable one. We test the algorithm on synthetic data from a one-dimensional dynamical system with a multitude of stable equilibrium points and also on a model of the population dynamics of spruce budworms in a forest. The algorithm and other ideas discussed here contribute to an important part of the literature on exercising greater control over the sometimes unpredictable nature of nonlinear systems.

Using networks to detect regime changes in aquatic communities across nutrient gradients

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taranu, Z. E.

2015-12-01

Networks capture links or interactions between organisms within ecological webs. When an environmental stress occurs, rapid changes in ecosystem state are expected in food webs with highly connected networks and functionally redundant species. These networks can dissipate local disturbances quickly and provide resistance to change at first until a threshold is reached, at which point, a critical transition occurs (nodes shift in synchrony). In contrast, in low connectivity (modular) heterogeneous networks, the response in ecosystem state to an environmental stressor is gradual. Given that these ecosystem-level shifts can be difficult to predict, hard to reverse and can have undesirable consequences, there is considerable interest in identifying what type of response (gradual vs. hysteresis) is most likely in nature. In this work, we thus aimed to test for the support for a bifurcated response in aquatic ecosystem across a landscape of human impact and track which of the above scenarios was most common. More specifically, using the US EPA National Lake Assessment water quality dataset (2007 sampling), we quantified differences in food-web structures across a spatial gradient of human impact (eutrophication). Preliminary results indicate that certain network properties vary nonlinearly with respect to nutrient enrichment.

EPA ’s ECOLOGICAL MODELS FOR INTEGRATED WATERSHED MANAGEMENT

EPA Science Inventory

Aquatic ecological populations and communities are affected by the nature and quality of the water in which they live. Specific factors that affect instream biota include chemical variables, biotic interactions, energy source, flow regime, and habitat structure. As watershed mana...

The Demise of the Circumboreal Mammoth Steppe as an Ecological Regime Shift: Drivers and Consequences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mann, D. H.; Groves, P.; Grosse, G.; Gaglioti, B.; Kunz, M.

2011-12-01

During the last ice age, the now-vanished Mammoth Steppe stretched from the Yukon westward to Europe and supported a unique guild of megafauna grazers including mammoth, bison, saiga, wooly rhinoceros, caribou, muskox, and horse. The detailed vegetational composition of this extinct biome remains uncertain because of its large size and temporal complexity during multiple climatic shifts. Grasses and sedges were prominent, and Mammoth Steppe vegetation was probably more spatially variable than the tundra and taiga vegetation that replaced it. The environmental factors that maintained the Mammoth Steppe and dictated its variability over time and space are poorly understood. Here we present evidence for an expanded version of the "Schweger Hypothesis", the idea that large regions of the Mammoth Steppe were created and maintained by processes associated with aeolian sediment activity that was driven by enhanced pressure gradients in the full-glacial atmosphere and by increased continentality caused by lowered sea level. Increased seasonal swings in climate plus stronger winds interacted to promote the widespread occurrence of steppe-like vegetation that grew on relatively inactive and marginal dune and loess deposits. Subsequent periods of resumed aeolian deposition or reworking would have inhibited thick organic horizon development which are largely absent from full glacial mammoth steppe. New mapping of sand dune systems in Siberia and improved chronological control over dune fields in Alaska demonstrate the presence of large dune fields and loess belts in the regions occupied by the Mammoth Steppe during the Last Glacial Maximum. In regions of north Siberia, intense periglacial weathering and local transport of sediments also contributed to development and maintenance of the Mammoth Steppe. Local areas where aeolian sediment activity persists today such as active dune fields and loessal soils share several characteristics with the mammoth steppe such as the abundance grass and sedges, firm substrates, and unusual mixtures of steppe and tundra vegetation. What caused the demise of the Mammoth Steppe is unclear, however understanding what maintained it over space and time would greatly aid this discussion. The habitat shift began ca. 12,500 14C yr BP and continued for approximately 2000 years. It coincided with a shift from well-drained, mineral soils to poorly drained, organic-rich ones. This regime shift may have been more significant than changes during previous interglacial climatic shifts as most megafaunal species adapted to life in the Mammoth Steppe experienced radical range reductions and, in some cases, global extinction during this period.

Quantifying patterns of change in marine ecosystem response to multiple pressures.

PubMed

Large, Scott I; Fay, Gavin; Friedland, Kevin D; Link, Jason S

2015-01-01

The ability to understand and ultimately predict ecosystem response to multiple pressures is paramount to successfully implement ecosystem-based management. Thresholds shifts and nonlinear patterns in ecosystem responses can be used to determine reference points that identify levels of a pressure that may drastically alter ecosystem status, which can inform management action. However, quantifying ecosystem reference points has proven elusive due in large part to the multi-dimensional nature of both ecosystem pressures and ecosystem responses. We used ecological indicators, synthetic measures of ecosystem status and functioning, to enumerate important ecosystem attributes and to reduce the complexity of the Northeast Shelf Large Marine Ecosystem (NES LME). Random forests were used to quantify the importance of four environmental and four anthropogenic pressure variables to the value of ecological indicators, and to quantify shifts in aggregate ecological indicator response along pressure gradients. Anthropogenic pressure variables were critical defining features and were able to predict an average of 8-13% (up to 25-66% for individual ecological indicators) of the variation in ecological indicator values, whereas environmental pressures were able to predict an average of 1-5 % (up to 9-26% for individual ecological indicators) of ecological indicator variation. Each pressure variable predicted a different suite of ecological indicator's variation and the shapes of ecological indicator responses along pressure gradients were generally nonlinear. Threshold shifts in ecosystem response to exploitation, the most important pressure variable, occurred when commercial landings were 20 and 60% of total surveyed biomass. Although present, threshold shifts in ecosystem response to environmental pressures were much less important, which suggests that anthropogenic pressures have significantly altered the ecosystem structure and functioning of the NES LME. Gradient response curves provide ecologically informed transformations of pressure variables to explain patterns of ecosystem structure and functioning. By concurrently identifying thresholds for a suite of ecological indicator responses to multiple pressures, we demonstrate that ecosystem reference points can be evaluated and used to support ecosystem-based management.

Combining functional weed ecology and crop stable isotope ratios to identify cultivation intensity: a comparison of cereal production regimes in Haute Provence, France and Asturias, Spain.

PubMed

Bogaard, Amy; Hodgson, John; Nitsch, Erika; Jones, Glynis; Styring, Amy; Diffey, Charlotte; Pouncett, John; Herbig, Christoph; Charles, Michael; Ertuğ, Füsun; Tugay, Osman; Filipovic, Dragana; Fraser, Rebecca

This investigation combines two independent methods of identifying crop growing conditions and husbandry practices-functional weed ecology and crop stable carbon and nitrogen isotope analysis-in order to assess their potential for inferring the intensity of past cereal production systems using archaeobotanical assemblages. Present-day organic cereal farming in Haute Provence, France features crop varieties adapted to low-nutrient soils managed through crop rotation, with little to no manuring. Weed quadrat survey of 60 crop field transects in this region revealed that floristic variation primarily reflects geographical differences. Functional ecological weed data clearly distinguish the Provence fields from those surveyed in a previous study of intensively managed spelt wheat in Asturias, north-western Spain: as expected, weed ecological data reflect higher soil fertility and disturbance in Asturias. Similarly, crop stable nitrogen isotope values distinguish between intensive manuring in Asturias and long-term cultivation with minimal manuring in Haute Provence. The new model of cereal cultivation intensity based on weed ecology and crop isotope values in Haute Provence and Asturias was tested through application to two other present-day regimes, successfully identifying a high-intensity regime in the Sighisoara region, Romania, and low-intensity production in Kastamonu, Turkey. Application of this new model to Neolithic archaeobotanical assemblages in central Europe suggests that early farming tended to be intensive, and likely incorporated manuring, but also exhibited considerable variation, providing a finer grained understanding of cultivation intensity than previously available.

Under-the-barrier dynamics in laser-induced relativistic tunneling.

PubMed

Klaiber, Michael; Yakaboylu, Enderalp; Bauke, Heiko; Hatsagortsyan, Karen Z; Keitel, Christoph H

2013-04-12

The tunneling dynamics in relativistic strong-field ionization is investigated with the aim to develop an intuitive picture for the relativistic tunneling regime. We demonstrate that the tunneling picture applies also in the relativistic regime by introducing position dependent energy levels. The quantum dynamics in the classically forbidden region features two time scales, the typical time that characterizes the probability density's decay of the ionizing electron under the barrier (Keldysh time) and the time interval which the electron spends inside the barrier (Eisenbud-Wigner-Smith tunneling time). In the relativistic regime, an electron momentum shift as well as a spatial shift along the laser propagation direction arise during the under-the-barrier motion which are caused by the laser magnetic field induced Lorentz force. The momentum shift is proportional to the Keldysh time, while the wave-packet's spatial drift is proportional to the Eisenbud-Wigner-Smith time. The signature of the momentum shift is shown to be present in the ionization spectrum at the detector and, therefore, observable experimentally. In contrast, the signature of the Eisenbud-Wigner-Smith time delay disappears at far distances for pure quasistatic tunneling dynamics.

Predicting regime shifts in flow of the Colorado River

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gangopadhyay, Subhrendu; McCabe, Gregory J.

2010-01-01

The effects of continued global warming on water resources are a concern for water managers and stake holders. In the western United States, where the combined climatic demand and consumptive use of water is equal to or greater than the natural supply of water for some locations, there is growing concern regarding the sustainability of future water supplies. In addition to the adverse effects of warming on water supply, another issue for water managers is accounting for, and managing, the effects of natural climatic variability, particularly persistently dry and wet periods. Analyses of paleo-reconstructions of Upper Colorado River basin (UCRB) flow demonstrate that severe sustained droughts, and persistent pluvial periods, are a recurring characteristic of hydroclimate in the Colorado River basin. Shifts between persistently dry and wet regimes (e.g., decadal to multi-decadal variability (D2M)) have important implications for water supply and water management. In this study paleo-reconstructions of UCRB flow are used to compute the risks of shifts between persistently wet and dry regimes given the length of time in a specific regime. Results indicate that low frequency variability of hydro-climatic conditions and the statistics that describe this low frequency variability can be useful to water managers by providing information about the risk of shifting from one hydrologic regime to another. To manage water resources in the future water managers will have to understand the joint hydrologic effects of natural climate variability and global warming. These joint effects may produce future hydrologic conditions that are unprecedented in both the instrumental and paleoclimatic records.

Elucidating dynamic responses of North Pacific fish populations to climatic forcing: Influence of life-history strategy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yatsu, A.; Aydin, K. Y.; King, J. R.; McFarlane, G. A.; Chiba, S.; Tadokoro, K.; Kaeriyama, M.; Watanabe, Y.

2008-05-01

In order to explore mechanistic linkages between low-frequency ocean/climate variability, and fish population responses, we undertook comparative studies of time-series of recruitment-related productivity and the biomass levels of fish stocks representing five life-history strategies in the northern North Pacific between the 1950s and the present. We selected seven species: Japanese sardine ( Sardinopus melanostictus) and California sardine ( Sardinopus sagax) (opportunistic strategists), walleye pollock ( Theragra chalcogramma, intermediate strategist), pink salmon ( Oncorhynchus gorbuscha, salmonic strategist), sablefish ( Anoplopoma fimbria) and Pacific halibut ( Hippoglossus stenolepis) (periodic strategists) and spiny dogfish ( Squalus acanthias, equilibrium strategist). The responses in terms of productivity of sardine, pink salmon, sablefish and halibut to climatic regime shifts were generally immediate, delayed, or no substantial responses depending on the particular regime shift year and fish stock (population). In walleye pollock, there were some periods of high productivity and low productivity, but not coincidental to climatic regime shifts, likely due to indirect climate forcing impacts on both bottom-up and top-down processes. Biomass of zooplankton and all fish stocks examined, except for spiny dogfish whose data were limited, indicated a decadal pattern with the most gradual changes in periodic strategists and most intensive and rapid changes in opportunistic strategists. Responses of sardine productivity to regime shifts were the most intense, probably due to the absence of density-dependent effects and the availability of refuges from predators when sardine biomass was extremely low. Spiny dogfish were least affected by environmental variability. Conversely, spiny dogfish are likely to withstand only modest harvest rates due to their very low intrinsic rate of increase. Thus, each life-history strategy type had a unique response to climatic forcing, owing to their inherent biological traits such as mode, frequency and intensity of reproduction, early life style, age of maturity and longevity. On the other hand, responses of different stocks within a species to climatic regime shifts were unique to each local region, because large-scale climatic forcings are modulated by local physical, chemical and biological processes. The observed response time or absence of response in recruitment-related fish productivity to climatic regime shifts may be influenced by (1) local environmental conditions (immediate, with a delay or no effects), (2) phenological shifts in zooplankton life-history (immediate or with a delay), and (3) stochastic episodic events in both top-down and bottom-up processes (immediate, with a delay or no effects).

Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation influence on weather regimes over Europe and the Mediterranean in spring and summer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zampieri, M.; Toreti, A.; Schindler, A.; Scoccimarro, E.; Gualdi, S.

2017-04-01

We analyze the influence of the Atlantic sea surface temperature multi-decadal variability on the day-by-day sequence of large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns (i.e. the ;weather regimes;) over the Euro-Atlantic region. In particular, we examine of occurrence of weather regimes from 1871 to present. This analysis is conducted by applying a clustering technique on the daily mean sea level pressure field provided by the 20th Century Reanalysis project, which was successfully applied in other studies focused on the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO). In spring and summer, results show significant changes in the frequencies of certain weather regimes associated with the phase shifts of the AMO. These changes are consistent with the seasonal surface pressure, precipitation, and temperature anomalies associated with the AMO shifts in Europe.

Fire ecology of the forest habitat types of northern Idaho

Treesearch

Jane Kapler Smith; William C. Fischer

1997-01-01

Provides information on fire ecology in forest habitat and community types occurring in northern Idaho. Identifies fire groups based on presettlement fire regimes and patterns of succession and stand development after fire. Describes forest fuels and suggests considerations for fire management.

Natural flow regimes of the Ozark-Ouachita Interior Highlands region

USGS Publications Warehouse

Leasure, D. R.; Magoulick, Daniel D.; Longing, S. D.

2016-01-01

Natural flow regimes represent the hydrologic conditions to which native aquatic organisms are best adapted. We completed a regional river classification and quantitative descriptions of each natural flow regime for the Ozark–Ouachita Interior Highlands region of Arkansas, Missouri and Oklahoma. On the basis of daily flow records from 64 reference streams, seven natural flow regimes were identified with mixture model cluster analysis: Groundwater Stable, Groundwater, Groundwater Flashy, Perennial Runoff, Runoff Flashy, Intermittent Runoff and Intermittent Flashy. Sets of flow metrics were selected that best quantified nine ecologically important components of these natural flow regimes. An uncertainty analysis was performed to avoid selecting metrics strongly affected by measurement uncertainty that can result from short periods of record. Measurement uncertainties (bias, precision and accuracy) were assessed for 170 commonly used flow metrics. The ranges of variability expected for select flow metrics under natural conditions were quantified for each flow regime to provide a reference for future assessments of hydrologic alteration. A random forest model was used to predict the natural flow regimes of all stream segments in the study area based on climate and catchment characteristics, and a map was produced. The geographic distribution of flow regimes suggested distinct ecohydrological regions that may be useful for conservation planning. This project provides a hydrologic foundation for future examination of flow–ecology relationships in the region. Published 2014. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Reconciliation Ecology, Rewilding and the San Joaquin River Restoration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kraus-Polk, A.

2014-12-01

Recent events, perhaps reaching their climactic convergence in the current drought, have exposed the fragility and imbalances of the socioecological system of the San Joaquin river. We see that our triumphant march of progress onfolds on a thin, and unstable crust. What lies below is lava. Our agricultural systems progress only while extracting an ever-untenable social and ecological debt. Our successive regimes of accumulation by appropriation have brought us to the brink of ecological exhaustion. Have we reached our day of reckoning? This is not the first time this question has been asked of this particular system of irrigated agriculture? "Insurmountable" ecological barriers have been eyed down and promptly obliterated through magnificent features of physical and social engineering. But lets us consider for a moment that we have at last reached some sort of edge, a threshold past which we experience a sudden socioecological regime shift. Staring out over this edge can we begin to come to terms with the fallacies of our stories, our ignorance, our foolishness? We need an acknowledgement of the needs of the agriculture systems, it's connections and dependencies. What desperate measures are we willing to take in order to sustain this system? How much further can we go? How far is too far? Is there another way to produce and distribute food? We then turn to the past. We imagine the ecosystem as it once was. The pelagic fish species that formed the biological connection between this river system, the delta, the Ocean, the Mountains. What would it mean to restore this diversity and repair these relationships? What would it take to cede control to the non-human forces that sustain these connections? How do we reconcile restraint and the cessation of control with the human needs of the system? How do we rewild our river in such a way that our needs are met in a way that is more resilient and equitable? We will need systems of agriculture and flood control that serve multiple functions. We will need to seek the synergies between objectives which had previously been viewed as mutually exclusive or in conflict. We will fail. We will need to take a hard look at our failures, comparing them to those of past eras, seeking out novel pathways out of our conjunctures.

Plant Ecological Strategies Shift Across the Cretaceous–Paleogene Boundary

PubMed Central

Blonder, Benjamin; Royer, Dana L.; Johnson, Kirk R.; Miller, Ian; Enquist, Brian J.

2014-01-01

The Chicxulub bolide impact caused the end-Cretaceous mass extinction of plants, but the associated selectivity and ecological effects are poorly known. Using a unique set of North Dakota leaf fossil assemblages spanning 2.2 Myr across the event, we show among angiosperms a reduction of ecological strategies and selection for fast-growth strategies consistent with a hypothesized recovery from an impact winter. Leaf mass per area (carbon investment) decreased in both mean and variance, while vein density (carbon assimilation rate) increased in mean, consistent with a shift towards “fast” growth strategies. Plant extinction from the bolide impact resulted in a shift in functional trait space that likely had broad consequences for ecosystem functioning. PMID:25225914

Large Dispersive Shift of Cavity Resonance Induced by a Superconducting Flux Qubit in the Straddling Regime

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Inomata, Kunihiro; Yamamoto, Tsuyoshi; Billangeon, Pierre-M.; Lin, Zhirong; Nakamura, Yasunobu; Tsai, Jaw-Shen; Koshino, Kazuki

2013-03-01

We demonstrate enhancement of the dispersive frequency shift in a coplanar waveguide resonator induced by a capacitively coupled superconducting flux qubit in the straddling regime. The magnitude of the observed shift, 80 MHz for the qubit-resonator detuning of 5 GHz, is quantitatively explained by the generalized Rabi model which takes into account the contribution of the qubit higher energy levels. By applying the enhanced dispersive shift to the qubit readout, we achieved 90 % contrast of the Rabi oscillations which is mainly limited by the energy relaxation of the qubit. We also discuss the qubit readout using a Josephson parametric amplifier. This work was supported by the MEXT Kakenhi ``Quantum Cybernetics'', the JSPS through its FIRST Program, and the NICT Commissioned Research.

A Landscape-Scale, Applied Fire Management Experiment Promotes Recovery of a Population of the Threatened Gouldian Finch, Erythrura gouldiae, in Australia’s Tropical Savannas

PubMed Central

Legge, Sarah; Garnett, Stephen; Maute, Kim; Heathcote, Joanne; Murphy, Steve; Woinarski, John C. Z.; Astheimer, Lee

2015-01-01

Fire is an integral part of savanna ecology and changes in fire patterns are linked to biodiversity loss in savannas worldwide. In Australia, changed fire regimes are implicated in the contemporary declines of small mammals, riparian species, obligate-seeding plants and grass seed-eating birds. Translating this knowledge into management to recover threatened species has proved elusive. We report here on a landscape-scale experiment carried out by the Australian Wildlife Conservancy (AWC) on Mornington Wildlife Sanctuary in northwest Australia. The experiment was designed to understand the response of a key savanna bird guild to fire, and to use that information to manage fire with the aim of recovering a threatened species population. We compared condition indices among three seed-eating bird species–one endangered (Gouldian finch) and two non-threatened (long-tailed finch and double-barred finch)—from two large areas (> 2,830 km2) with initial contrasting fire regimes (‘extreme’: frequent, extensive, intense fire; versus ‘benign’: less frequent, smaller, lower intensity fires). Populations of all three species living with the extreme fire regime had condition indices that differed from their counterparts living with the benign fire regime, including higher haematocrit levels in some seasons (suggesting higher levels of activity required to find food), different seasonal haematocrit profiles, higher fat scores in the early wet season (suggesting greater food uncertainty), and then lower muscle scores later in the wet season (suggesting prolonged food deprivation). Gouldian finches also showed seasonally increasing stress hormone concentrations with the extreme fire regime. Cumulatively, these patterns indicated greater nutritional stress over many months for seed-eating birds exposed to extreme fire regimes. We tested these relationships by monitoring finch condition over the following years, as AWC implemented fire management to produce the ‘benign’ fire regime throughout the property. The condition indices of finch populations originally living with the extreme fire regime shifted to resemble those of their counterparts living with the benign fire regime. This research supports the hypothesis that fire regimes affect food resources for savanna seed-eating birds, with this impact mediated through a range of grass species utilised by the birds over different seasons, and that fire management can effectively moderate that impact. This work provides a rare example of applied research supporting the recovery of a population of a threatened species. PMID:26445496

Ecological speciation by temporal isolation in a population of the stonefly Leuctra hippopus (Plecoptera, Leuctridae).

PubMed

Boumans, Louis; Hogner, Silje; Brittain, John; Johnsen, Arild

2017-03-01

Stream dwelling invertebrates are ideal candidates for the study of ecological speciation as they are often adapted to particular environmental conditions within a stream and inhabit only certain reaches of a drainage basin, separated by unsuitable habitat. We studied an atypical population of the stonefly Leuctra hippopus at a site in central Norway, the Isterfoss rapids, in relation to three nearby and two remote conspecific populations. Adults of this population emerge about a month earlier than those of nearby populations, live on large boulders emerging from the rapids, and are short-lived. This population also has distinct morphological features and was studied earlier during the period 1975-1990. We reassessed morphological distinctness with new measurements and added several analyses of genetic distinctness based on mitochondrial and nuclear sequence markers, as well as AFLP fingerprinting and SNPs mined from RAD sequences. The Isterfoss population is shown to be most closely related to its geographical neighbors, yet clearly morphologically and genetically distinct and homogeneous. We conclude that this population is in the process of sympatric speciation, with temporal isolation being the most important direct barrier to gene flow. The shift in reproductive season results from the particular temperature and water level regime in the Isterfoss rapids. The distinct adult body shape and loss of flight are hypothesized to be an adaptation to the unusual habitat. Ecological diversification on small spatial and temporal scales is one of the likely causes of the high diversity of aquatic insects.

Revisiting the ants of Melanesia and the taxon cycle: historical and human-mediated invasions of a tropical archipelago.

PubMed

Economo, Evan P; Sarnat, Eli M

2012-07-01

Understanding the historical evolution of biotas and the dynamics of contemporary human-mediated species introductions are two central tasks of biology. One hypothesis may address both-the taxon cycle. Taxon cycles are phases of range expansion and contraction coupled to ecological and evolutionary niche shifts. These historical invasion processes resemble human-mediated invasions in pattern and possibly mechanism, but both the existence of historical cycles and the roles of recent introductions are in question. We return to the system that originally inspired the taxon cycle-Melanesian ants-and perform novel tests of the hypothesis. We analyze (i) the habitat distributions of Fiji's entire ant fauna (183 species), (ii) ecological shifts associated with the in situ radiation of Fijian Pheidole in a phylogenetic context, and (iii) the ecological structure of a massive exotic ant invasion of the archipelago. Our analyses indicate lineages shift toward primary habitats, higher elevation, rarity, and ecological specialization with increasing level of endemism, consistent with taxon cycle predictions. The marginal habitats that historically formed a dispersal conduit in the Pacific are now mostly replaced by human-modified habitats dominated by a colonization pulse of exotic species. We propose this may represent the first phase of an incipient global cycle of human-mediated colonization, ecological shifts, and diversification.

How superdiffusion gets arrested: ecological encounters explain shift from Lévy to Brownian movement

PubMed Central

de Jager, Monique; Bartumeus, Frederic; Kölzsch, Andrea; Weissing, Franz J.; Hengeveld, Geerten M.; Nolet, Bart A.; Herman, Peter M. J.; van de Koppel, Johan

2014-01-01

Ecological theory uses Brownian motion as a default template for describing ecological movement, despite limited mechanistic underpinning. The generality of Brownian motion has recently been challenged by empirical studies that highlight alternative movement patterns of animals, especially when foraging in resource-poor environments. Yet, empirical studies reveal animals moving in a Brownian fashion when resources are abundant. We demonstrate that Einstein's original theory of collision-induced Brownian motion in physics provides a parsimonious, mechanistic explanation for these observations. Here, Brownian motion results from frequent encounters between organisms in dense environments. In density-controlled experiments, movement patterns of mussels shifted from Lévy towards Brownian motion with increasing density. When the analysis was restricted to moves not truncated by encounters, this shift did not occur. Using a theoretical argument, we explain that any movement pattern approximates Brownian motion at high-resource densities, provided that movement is interrupted upon encounters. Hence, the observed shift to Brownian motion does not indicate a density-dependent change in movement strategy but rather results from frequent collisions. Our results emphasize the need for a more mechanistic use of Brownian motion in ecology, highlighting that especially in rich environments, Brownian motion emerges from ecological interactions, rather than being a default movement pattern. PMID:24225464

How superdiffusion gets arrested: ecological encounters explain shift from Lévy to Brownian movement.

PubMed

de Jager, Monique; Bartumeus, Frederic; Kölzsch, Andrea; Weissing, Franz J; Hengeveld, Geerten M; Nolet, Bart A; Herman, Peter M J; van de Koppel, Johan

2014-01-07

Ecological theory uses Brownian motion as a default template for describing ecological movement, despite limited mechanistic underpinning. The generality of Brownian motion has recently been challenged by empirical studies that highlight alternative movement patterns of animals, especially when foraging in resource-poor environments. Yet, empirical studies reveal animals moving in a Brownian fashion when resources are abundant. We demonstrate that Einstein's original theory of collision-induced Brownian motion in physics provides a parsimonious, mechanistic explanation for these observations. Here, Brownian motion results from frequent encounters between organisms in dense environments. In density-controlled experiments, movement patterns of mussels shifted from Lévy towards Brownian motion with increasing density. When the analysis was restricted to moves not truncated by encounters, this shift did not occur. Using a theoretical argument, we explain that any movement pattern approximates Brownian motion at high-resource densities, provided that movement is interrupted upon encounters. Hence, the observed shift to Brownian motion does not indicate a density-dependent change in movement strategy but rather results from frequent collisions. Our results emphasize the need for a more mechanistic use of Brownian motion in ecology, highlighting that especially in rich environments, Brownian motion emerges from ecological interactions, rather than being a default movement pattern.

ECOLOGICAL ANALYSIS OF HYDROLOGIC DISTURBANCE REGIMES IN STREAMS OF NORTH AND SOUTH DAKOTA

EPA Science Inventory

Streamflow variability is an important component of physical disturbance in streams, and is likely to be a major organizing feature of habitat for stream fishes. The disturbance regime in streams is frequently described by the variability in streamflow from both floods and prolo...

The essence of fire regime-condition class assessment

Treesearch

McKinley-Ben Miller

2008-01-01

The interagency-Fire Regime / Condition Class - assessment process (FRCC) represents a contemporary and effective means of estimating the relative degree of difference or "departure" a subject landscape condition is currently in, as compared to the historic or reference ecological conditions. This process generally applied to fire adapted systems is science-...

Envisioning, quantifying, and managing thermal regimes on river networks

Treesearch

E. Ashley Steel; Timothy J. Beechie; Christian E. Torgersen; Aimee H. Fullerton

2017-01-01

Water temperatures fluctuate in time and space, creating diverse thermal regimes on river networks. Temporal variability in these thermal landscapes has important biological and ecological consequences because of nonlinearities in physiological reactions; spatial diversity in thermal landscapes provides aquatic organisms with options to maximize growth and survival....

Challenges and a checklist for biodiversity conservation in fire-prone forests: perspecitves from the Pacific Northwest of USA and Southeastern Australia

Treesearch

Thomas A. Spies; David B. Lindenmayer; A. Malcolm Gill; Scott L. Stephens; James K. Agee

2012-01-01

Conserving biodiversity in fire-prone forest ecosystems is challenging for several reasons including differing and incomplete conceptual models of fire-related ecological processes, major gaps in ecological and management knowledge, high variability in fire behavior and ecological responses to fires, altered fire regimes as a result of land-use history and climate...

A Limnological Examination of the Southwestern Amazon, Madre de Dios, Peru

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Belcon, Alana Urnesha

This dissertation investigates the limnology of the southwestern Peruvian Amazon centered on the Madre de Dios department by examining first the geomorphology and then the ecology and biogeochemistry of the region's fluvial systems. Madre de Dios, Peru is world renowned for its prolific biodiversity and its location within the Andes biodiversity hotspot. It is also a site of study regarding the development of the Fitzcarrald Arch and that feature's geomorphological importance as the drainage center for the headwaters of the Madeira River---the Amazon's largest tributary and as well as its role as a physical divider of genetic evolution in the Amazon. Though each of these has been studied by a variety of prominent researchers, the ability to investigate all the aspects of this unique region is hampered by the lack of a regional geomorphological map. This study aims to fill that gap by using remote sensing techniques on digital elevation models, satellite imagery and soil, geology and geoecological maps already in publication to create a geomorphological map. The resulting map contains ten distinct landform types that exemplify the dominance of fluvial processes in shaping this landscape. The river terraces of the Madre de Dios River are delineated in their entirety as well as the various dissected relief units and previously undefined units. The demarcation of the boundaries of these geomorphic units will provide invaluable assistance to the selection of field sites by future researchers as well as insights into the origin of the high biodiversity indices of this region and aid in planning for biodiversity conservation. Secondly this study examines 25 tropical floodplain lakes along 300 km of the Manu River within the Manu National Park in the Madre de Dios department. Alternative stable state and regime shifts in shallow lakes typically have been examined in lakes in temperate and boreal regions and within anthropogenically disturbed basins but have rarely been studied in tropical or in undisturbed regions. In contrast this study focuses on a tropical region of virtually no human disturbance and evaluates the effects of hydrological variability on ecosystem structure and dynamics. Using satellite imagery a 23 yr timeline of ecological regime shifts in Amazon oxbow lakes or "cochas" is reconstructed. The study shows that almost 25% of the river's floodplain lakes experience periodic abrupt vegetative changes with an average 3.4% existing in an alternative stable state in any given year. State changes typically occur from a stable phytoplankton-dominated state to a short lived, <3 yr, floating macrophytic state and often occur independent of regional flooding. We theorize that multiple dynamics, both internal and external, drive vegetative regime shifts in the Manu but insufficient data yet exists in this remote region to identify the key processes. To complete the investigation of tropical limnology the third study compares and contrasts the nutrient-productivity ration of floodplain and non-floodplain lakes globally and regionally. For over 70 years a strong positive relationship between sestonic chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) and total phosphorus (TP) has been established with phosphorus generally viewed as the most limiting factor to productivity. Most of these studies, however, have focused on northern, temperate regions where the lakes are typically postglacial, isolated and fed by small streams. Relatively little work has been done on floodplain lakes which are semi or permanently connected to the river. This study examines the relationship between nutrients and productivity in floodplain lakes globally through an extensive literature synthesis. Values for total phosphorus, total nitrogen and chlorophyll-a were collected for 523 floodplain lakes, represented by 288 data points while 551 data points were collected for 5444 non-floodplain lakes. Analysis revealed that globally, floodplain lakes do not show any significant difference in the total phosphorus/chlorophyll-a relationship from that found in non-floodplain lakes but significant differences are seen between tropical and temperate lakes. We propose that the term 'floodplain' lake should serve as purely a geographical descriptor and that it is lacking as an ecological indicator. Instead factors such as precipitation seasonality, hydrological connectivity and regional flooding regimes are better indicators of high or low productivity in floodplain lakes.

Faculty Reward Systems and Academic Capitalism: Business Faculty Income inside and outside the Institution

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lin, Shan

2010-01-01

Market forces have driven American higher education from a public good regime to an academic capitalist regime. To examine how this regime shift influences the quality of business education in the US, we use field of specialty, institutional characteristics, demographics, and personal achievements to predict faculty income from inside and outside…

Millennial-scale plankton regime shifts in the subtropical North Pacific Ocean.

PubMed

McMahon, Kelton W; McCarthy, Matthew D; Sherwood, Owen A; Larsen, Thomas; Guilderson, Thomas P

2015-12-18

Climate change is predicted to alter marine phytoplankton communities and affect productivity, biogeochemistry, and the efficacy of the biological pump. We reconstructed high-resolution records of changing plankton community composition in the North Pacific Ocean over the past millennium. Amino acid-specific δ(13)C records preserved in long-lived deep-sea corals revealed three major plankton regimes corresponding to Northern Hemisphere climate periods. Non-dinitrogen-fixing cyanobacteria dominated during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (950-1250 Common Era) before giving way to a new regime in which eukaryotic microalgae contributed nearly half of all export production during the Little Ice Age (~1400-1850 Common Era). The third regime, unprecedented in the past millennium, began in the industrial era and is characterized by increasing production by dinitrogen-fixing cyanobacteria. This picoplankton community shift may provide a negative feedback to rising atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

REGIME CHANGES IN ECOLOGICAL SYSTEMS: AN INFORMATION THEORY APPROACH

EPA Science Inventory

We present our efforts at developing an ecological system using Information Theory. We derive an expression for Fisher Information based on sampling of the system trajectory as it evolves in the state space. The Fisher Information index as we have derived it captures the characte...

Emulating natural disturbance regimes: an emerging approach for sustainable forest management

Treesearch

M. North; W Keeton

2008-01-01

Sustainable forest management integrates ecological, social, and economic objectives. To achieve the former, researchers and practitioners are modifying silvicultural practices based on concepts from successional and landscape ecology to provide a broader array of ecosystem functions than is associated with conventional approaches. One...

Characterizing the Soil Ecology of Red Raspberry Produced under Different Production Regimes

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Soil and rhizosphere ecology play important roles in plant health and development. Using culture-independent microbial community profiling, we investigated the effects of fertilizer (composted dairy solids + mustard seed meal) on fungal communities in soil and endophytic in a raspberry production sy...

Defining ecologically relevant scales for spatial protection with long-term data on an endangered seabird and local prey availability.

PubMed

Sherley, Richard B; Botha, Philna; Underhill, Les G; Ryan, Peter G; van Zyl, Danie; Cockcroft, Andrew C; Crawford, Robert J M; Dyer, Bruce M; Cook, Timothée R

2017-12-01

Human activities are important drivers of marine ecosystem functioning. However, separating the synergistic effects of fishing and environmental variability on the prey base of nontarget predators is difficult, often because prey availability estimates on appropriate scales are lacking. Understanding how prey abundance at different spatial scales links to population change can help integrate the needs of nontarget predators into fisheries management by defining ecologically relevant areas for spatial protection. We investigated the local population response (number of breeders) of the Bank Cormorant (Phalacrocorax neglectus), a range-restricted endangered seabird, to the availability of its prey, the heavily fished west coast rock lobster (Jasus lalandii). Using Bayesian state-space modeled cormorant counts at 3 colonies, 22 years of fisheries-independent data on local lobster abundance, and generalized additive modeling, we determined the spatial scale pertinent to these relationships in areas with different lobster availability. Cormorant numbers responded positively to lobster availability in the regions with intermediate and high abundance but not where regime shifts and fishing pressure had depleted lobster stocks. The relationships were strongest when lobsters 20-30 km offshore of the colony were considered, a distance greater than the Bank Cormorant's foraging range when breeding, and may have been influenced by prey availability for nonbreeding birds, prey switching, or prey ecology. Our results highlight the importance of considering the scale of ecological relationships in marine spatial planning and suggest that designing spatial protection around focal species can benefit marine predators across their full life cycle. We propose the precautionary implementation of small-scale marine protected areas, followed by robust assessment and adaptive-management, to confirm population-level benefits for the cormorants, their prey, and the wider ecosystem, without negative impacts on local fisheries. © 2017 Society for Conservation Biology.

The CARIACO Ocean Time-Series: two decades of oceanographic observations to understand linkages between biogeochemistry, ecology, and long-term environmental variability.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lorenzoni, L.; Muller-Karger, F. E.; Rueda-Roa, D. T.; Thunell, R.; Scranton, M. I.; Taylor, G. T.; benitez-Nelson, C. R.; Montes, E.; Astor, Y. M.; Rojas, J.

2016-02-01

The CARIACO Ocean Time-Series project, located in the Cariaco Basin off the coast of Venezuela, seeks to understand relationships between hydrography, primary production, community composition, microbial activity, particle fluxes, and element cycling in the water column, and how variations in these processes are preserved in sediments accumulating in this anoxic basin. CARIACO uses autonomous and shipboard measurements to understand ecological and biogeochemical changes and how these relate to regional and global climatic/ocean variability. CARIACO is a model for national ocean observing programs in Central/South America, and has been developed as a community facility platform with open access to all data (http://imars.marine.usf.edu/cariaco). Research resulting from this program has contributed to knowledge about the decomposition and cycling of particles, the biological pump, and to our understanding of the ecology and oceanography of oxygen minimum zones. Despite this basin being anoxic below 250m, remineralization rates of organic matter are comparable to those in well oxygenated waters. A dynamic microbial community significantly influences carbon and nutrient biogeochemical cycling throughout the water column. Since 1995, declining particulate organic carbon fluxes have been measured throughout the water column using sediment traps, likely in response to declining Chl-a concentrations and smaller phytoplankton which have replaced the larger taxa over the past decade. This community shift appears to be caused by regional changes in the physical regime. CARIACO also recorded marked long-term changes in surface and deep DIC in response to a combination of factors including surface water warming. The observations of CARIACO highlight the importance of a sustained, holistic approach to studying biodiversity, ecology and the marine carbon cycle to predict potential impacts of climate change on the ocean's ecosystem services and carbon sequestration efficiency.

Life and Death of Deep-Sea Vents: Bacterial Diversity and Ecosystem Succession on Inactive Hydrothermal Sulfides

PubMed Central

Sylvan, Jason B.; Toner, Brandy M.; Edwards, Katrina J.

2012-01-01

ABSTRACT Hydrothermal chimneys are a globally dispersed habitat on the seafloor associated with mid-ocean ridge (MOR) spreading centers. Active, hot, venting sulfide structures from MORs have been examined for microbial diversity and ecology since their discovery in the mid-1970s, and recent work has also begun to explore the microbiology of inactive sulfides—structures that persist for decades to millennia and form moderate to massive deposits at and below the seafloor. Here we used tag pyrosequencing of the V6 region of the 16S rRNA and full-length 16S rRNA sequencing on inactive hydrothermal sulfide chimney samples from 9°N on the East Pacific Rise to learn their bacterial composition, metabolic potential, and succession from venting to nonventing (inactive) regimes. Alpha-, beta-, delta-, and gammaproteobacteria and members of the phylum Bacteroidetes dominate all inactive sulfides. Greater than 26% of the V6 tags obtained are closely related to lineages involved in sulfur, nitrogen, iron, and methane cycling. Epsilonproteobacteria represent <4% of the V6 tags recovered from inactive sulfides and 15% of the full-length clones, despite their high abundance in active chimneys. Members of the phylum Aquificae, which are common in active vents, were absent from both the V6 tags and full-length 16S rRNA data sets. In both analyses, the proportions of alphaproteobacteria, betaproteobacteria, and members of the phylum Bacteroidetes were greater than those found on active hydrothermal sulfides. These shifts in bacterial population structure on inactive chimneys reveal ecological succession following cessation of venting and also imply a potential shift in microbial activity and metabolic guilds on hydrothermal sulfides, the dominant biome that results from seafloor venting. PMID:22275502

Iron fertilisation by Asian dust influences North Pacific sardine regime shifts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qiu, Yongsong

2015-05-01

Forcing factors and mechanisms underlying multidecadal variability in the production of the world's major fish stocks are one of the great mysteries of the oceans. The Japanese and California sardine are species that exhibit the regime shifts. It is shown in the present work that during two periods of frequent Asian dust events over the last 100 years, sardines on opposite sides of the Pacific Ocean only flourished under a dust-active regime. The earlier such regime that peaked in the 1930s was strong, and it brought synchronous changes in the two species that were linked to the frequency of Asian dust events. However, there is an apparent mismatch in the rise and fall of abundance between the two species in the current dust-active regime. The massive increase in Japanese sardine stock in the 1970s was related to high levels of ocean precipitation and strong winter mixing, whereas the stock collapse since 1988 has been attributed to diminished winter mixing. High levels of ocean precipitation in the western North Pacific effectively cause wet deposition of Asian dust and enhance Japanese sardine stock, whereas it reduces dust flux that can be transported to the eastern North Pacific, delaying the increase of California sardine stock. Analysis further indicates that productivity of Japanese sardine stock is jointly controlled by wet deposition of Asian dust and winter mixing, which supplies macronutrients from depth. California sardine productivity is inversely related to precipitation in the western North Pacific and is positively affected by precipitation off western North America. This indicates that Asian dust influx dominates productivity of the species because of iron-limited ocean productivity in the California sardine ranges. The analysis suggests that dust regime shifts influence shifts in sardine productivity regimes and that iron input from Asian dust during trans-Pacific transport is directly responsible. It appears that in addition to enhancing phytoplankton growth and carbon sinks, atmospheric iron deposition can regulate the production of living ocean resources, which is an extension of Martin's iron hypothesis.

System-focused environmental flow regime prescription, monitoring and adaptive management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hetherington, David; Lexartza Artza, Irantzu

2016-04-01

The definition of appropriate environmental flow regimes through hydropower schemes and water storage reservoirs is key part of mitigation. Insufficient (magnitude and variability) environmental flows can result in much environmental harm with negative impacts being encountered by morphological, ecological and societal systems. Conventionally, environmental flow regimes have been determined by using generic protocols and guidance such as the Tennant method of environmental flow estimation. It is generally accepted that such approaches to minimum environmental flow definition, although being a useful starting point, are not universally applicable across catchment typologies and climatic regions. Such approaches will not always produce conditions that would be associated with 'Good Ecological Status' under the Water framework Directive (or equivalent). Other similar approaches to minimum environmental flow estimation are used that are specific to geographies, yet still the associated guidance rarely thoroughly covers appropriate definition for healthy holistic systems across the flow regime. This paper draws on experience of system-focused environmental flow regime determination in the UK and the Georgian Caucasus Mountains, which allowed for a critical analysis of more conventional methods to be undertaken. The paper describes a recommended approach for determining appropriate environmental flow regimes based on analysis of the impacted geomorphological, ecological and societal systems in a way which is sensitive to the local holistic environment and associated complexities and interactions. The paper suggests that a strong understanding of the local geomorphology in key in predicting how flows will manifest habitat differently across the flow regime, and be spatially dynamic. Additionally, an understanding of the geomorphological system allows the flow of course and fine sediment to be factored into the initial suggested environmental flow regime. It is suggested that more peripheral influencing factors should be given serious consideration when developing environmental flow regimes. These factors could include the development of ice, non-fluvial geomorphic processes such as landslides, connectivity with groundwater and provision for local cottage industries. Even with a thorough appreciation of the holistic system, the value of detailed environmental monitoring and adaptive management plans cannot be underestimated as a means of further managing risk and uncertainty in complex systems. It is suggested that by taking a more holistic and system-focused approach to environmental flow definition, that environmental flow regimes can be tailored to the specificity and complexity of any given location. By improving the way that environmental flow regimes and associated physical mitigation are prescribed, monitored and managed it should be possible to develop more sustainable forms of energy production whilst minimising environmental harm as far as possible.

Cenozoic Shift From Compression to Strike-Slip Stress Regime in the High Andes at 30°S, During the Shallowing of the Slab: Implications for the El Indio/Tambo Mineral District

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giambiagi, Laura; Álvarez, Patricia Pamela; Creixell, Christian; Mardonez, Diego; Murillo, Ismael; Velásquez, Ricardo; Lossada, Ana; Suriano, Julieta; Mescua, José; Barrionuevo, Matías

2017-11-01

In the High Andes of central Chile, above the flat-slab segment, analysis of more than 1,000 fault slip data from Miocene outcrops provides evidence for a change of the regional tectonic regime from compressional to strike slip. This shift in tectonic regime occurred during the waning stages of arc volcanism between 14 and 11 Ma, as a result of the shallowing of the Nazca plate, in conjunction with the migration of deformation to the Precordillera. During the early to middle Miocene, a compressive regime with horizontal σ1 axis (N86°E) was responsible for reverse slip along NNE to N-striking faults. During the late Miocene, a shift to strike-slip tectonics took place due to an increase in the absolute magnitude of the vertical stress component as the crust thickened and the gravitational potential energy increase. We argue that instead of the previously accepted highly compressional setting in the arc region during the slab flattening, the change to a strike-slip regime was the main control on mineralization. Mineralization was controlled by the promotion of fluid expulsion from the magma chambers along active, subvertical strike-slip fault systems with a high slip tendency, and focusing of fluids in localized areas undergoing extension. Under this strike-slip regime, the El Indio, Tambo, and La Despensa fault systems formed as dextral strike-slip systems. The tips and jogsites along these faults experienced local extensional stress fields, forming the El Indio and Tambo mineral districts.

Generation of straight-line shifting bright-dark soliton trains with a wide dip in the symmetric center or dark solitons in optical fibers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhong, Xianqiong; Yao, Na; Sheng, Jia'nan; Cheng, Ke

2018-02-01

Nonlinear evolutions of dark soliton pulses with initially constant frequency chirps are investigated numerically for different soliton orders and chirp parameters in different dispersion regimes of optical fibers. The results show interestingly that, in the normal dispersion regime, the evolution properties remain unchanged apart from their straight-line shifts of the temporal trajectories compared with the chirp-free case. While in the anomalous dispersion regime, the dark solitons can evolve to bright-dark soliton trains with a wide black soliton in the symmetric center. The longer the distance, the more the pulse number. The larger the soliton order, the more the pulse number at the same distance. Similarly, straight-line shift of the temporal trajectory of the bright-dark soliton trains will also appear. The shifting amount and direction depend on the absolute value and the sign of the chirp parameter, respectively. This result inspires people to generate bright-dark soliton trains by using ordinary passive optical fibers instead of fiber lasers. Besides, this work also provides us an alternative approach to guide the formed solitons or soliton trains to move their temporal trajectories along straight lines.

Flow regime, temperature, and biotic interactions drive differential declines of trout species under climate change

PubMed Central

Wenger, Seth J.; Isaak, Daniel J.; Luce, Charles H.; Neville, Helen M.; Fausch, Kurt D.; Dunham, Jason B.; Dauwalter, Daniel C.; Young, Michael K.; Elsner, Marketa M.; Rieman, Bruce E.; Hamlet, Alan F.; Williams, Jack E.

2011-01-01

Broad-scale studies of climate change effects on freshwater species have focused mainly on temperature, ignoring critical drivers such as flow regime and biotic interactions. We use downscaled outputs from general circulation models coupled with a hydrologic model to forecast the effects of altered flows and increased temperatures on four interacting species of trout across the interior western United States (1.01 million km2), based on empirical statistical models built from fish surveys at 9,890 sites. Projections under the 2080s A1B emissions scenario forecast a mean 47% decline in total suitable habitat for all trout, a group of fishes of major socioeconomic and ecological significance. We project that native cutthroat trout Oncorhynchus clarkii, already excluded from much of its potential range by nonnative species, will lose a further 58% of habitat due to an increase in temperatures beyond the species’ physiological optima and continued negative biotic interactions. Habitat for nonnative brook trout Salvelinus fontinalis and brown trout Salmo trutta is predicted to decline by 77% and 48%, respectively, driven by increases in temperature and winter flood frequency caused by warmer, rainier winters. Habitat for rainbow trout, Oncorhynchus mykiss, is projected to decline the least (35%) because negative temperature effects are partly offset by flow regime shifts that benefit the species. These results illustrate how drivers other than temperature influence species response to climate change. Despite some uncertainty, large declines in trout habitat are likely, but our findings point to opportunities for strategic targeting of mitigation efforts to appropriate stressors and locations. PMID:21844354

Flow regime, temperature, and biotic interactions drive differential declines of trout species under climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wenger, S.J.; Isaak, D.J.; Luce, C.H.; Neville, H.M.; Fausch, K.D.; Dunham, J.B.; Dauwalter, D.C.; Young, M.K.; Elsner, M.M.; Rieman, B.E.; Hamlet, A.F.; Williams, J.E.

2011-01-01

Broad-scale studies of climate change effects on freshwater species have focused mainly on temperature, ignoring critical drivers such as flow regime and biotic interactions. We use downscaled outputs from general circulation models coupled with a hydrologic model to forecast the effects of altered flows and increased temperatures on four interacting species of trout across the interior western United States (1.01 million km2), based on empirical statistical models built from fish surveys at 9,890 sites. Projections under the 2080s A1B emissions scenario forecast a mean 47% decline in total suitable habitat for all trout, a group of fishes of major socioeconomic and ecological significance. We project that native cutthroat trout Oncorhynchus clarkii, already excluded from much of its potential range by nonnative species, will lose a further 58% of habitat due to an increase in temperatures beyond the species' physiological optima and continued negative biotic interactions. Habitat for nonnative brook trout Salvelinus fontinalis and brown trout Salmo trutta is predicted to decline by 77% and 48%, respectively, driven by increases in temperature and winter flood frequency caused by warmer, rainier winters. Habitat for rainbow trout, Oncorhynchus mykiss, is projected to decline the least (35%) because negative temperature effects are partly offset by flow regime shifts that benefit the species. These results illustrate how drivers other than temperature influence species response to climate change. Despite some uncertainty, large declines in trout habitat are likely, but our findings point to opportunities for strategic targeting of mitigation efforts to appropriate stressors and locations.

Identifying natural flow regimes using fish communities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, Fi-John; Tsai, Wen-Ping; Wu, Tzu-Ching; Chen, Hung-kwai; Herricks, Edwin E.

2011-10-01

SummaryModern water resources management has adopted natural flow regimes as reasonable targets for river restoration and conservation. The characterization of a natural flow regime begins with the development of hydrologic statistics from flow records. However, little guidance exists for defining the period of record needed for regime determination. In Taiwan, the Taiwan Eco-hydrological Indicator System (TEIS), a group of hydrologic statistics selected for fisheries relevance, is being used to evaluate ecological flows. The TEIS consists of a group of hydrologic statistics selected to characterize the relationships between flow and the life history of indigenous species. Using the TEIS and biosurvey data for Taiwan, this paper identifies the length of hydrologic record sufficient for natural flow regime characterization. To define the ecological hydrology of fish communities, this study connected hydrologic statistics to fish communities by using methods to define antecedent conditions that influence existing community composition. A moving average method was applied to TEIS statistics to reflect the effects of antecedent flow condition and a point-biserial correlation method was used to relate fisheries collections with TEIS statistics. The resulting fish species-TEIS (FISH-TEIS) hydrologic statistics matrix takes full advantage of historical flows and fisheries data. The analysis indicates that, in the watersheds analyzed, averaging TEIS statistics for the present year and 3 years prior to the sampling date, termed MA(4), is sufficient to develop a natural flow regime. This result suggests that flow regimes based on hydrologic statistics for the period of record can be replaced by regimes developed for sampled fish communities.

Disturbance Regimes Predictably Alter Diversity in an Ecologically Complex Bacterial System

PubMed Central

Scholz, Monika; Hutchison, Alan L.; Dinner, Aaron R.; Gilbert, Jack A.; Coleman, Maureen L.

2016-01-01

ABSTRACT Diversity is often associated with the functional stability of ecological communities from microbes to macroorganisms. Understanding how diversity responds to environmental perturbations and the consequences of this relationship for ecosystem function are thus central challenges in microbial ecology. Unimodal diversity-disturbance relationships, in which maximum diversity occurs at intermediate levels of disturbance, have been predicted for ecosystems where life history tradeoffs separate organisms along a disturbance gradient. However, empirical support for such peaked relationships in macrosystems is mixed, and few studies have explored these relationships in microbial systems. Here we use complex microbial microcosm communities to systematically determine diversity-disturbance relationships over a range of disturbance regimes. We observed a reproducible switch between community states, which gave rise to transient diversity maxima when community states were forced to mix. Communities showed reduced compositional stability when diversity was highest. To further explore these dynamics, we formulated a simple model that reveals specific regimes under which diversity maxima are stable. Together, our results show how both unimodal and non-unimodal diversity-disturbance relationships can be observed as a system switches between two distinct microbial community states; this process likely occurs across a wide range of spatially and temporally heterogeneous microbial ecosystems. PMID:27999158

Overcoming systemic roadblocks to sustainability: The evolutionary redesign of worldviews, institutions, and technologies

PubMed Central

Beddoe, Rachael; Costanza, Robert; Farley, Joshua; Garza, Eric; Kent, Jennifer; Kubiszewski, Ida; Martinez, Luz; McCowen, Tracy; Murphy, Kathleen; Myers, Norman; Ogden, Zach; Stapleton, Kevin; Woodward, John

2009-01-01

A high and sustainable quality of life is a central goal for humanity. Our current socio-ecological regime and its set of interconnected worldviews, institutions, and technologies all support the goal of unlimited growth of material production and consumption as a proxy for quality of life. However, abundant evidence shows that, beyond a certain threshold, further material growth no longer significantly contributes to improvement in quality of life. Not only does further material growth not meet humanity's central goal, there is mounting evidence that it creates significant roadblocks to sustainability through increasing resource constraints (i.e., peak oil, water limitations) and sink constraints (i.e., climate disruption). Overcoming these roadblocks and creating a sustainable and desirable future will require an integrated, systems level redesign of our socio-ecological regime focused explicitly and directly on the goal of sustainable quality of life rather than the proxy of unlimited material growth. This transition, like all cultural transitions, will occur through an evolutionary process, but one that we, to a certain extent, can control and direct. We suggest an integrated set of worldviews, institutions, and technologies to stimulate and seed this evolutionary redesign of the current socio-ecological regime to achieve global sustainability. PMID:19240221

Zero-G experiments in two-phase fluids flow regimes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Heppner, D. B.; King, C. D.; Littles, J. W.

1975-01-01

The two-phase flows studied were liquid and gas mixtures in a straight flow channel of circular cross-section. Boundaries between flow regimes have been defined for normogravity on coordinates of gas quality and total mass velocity; and, when combined with boundary expressions having a Froude number term, an analytical model was derived predicting boundary shifts with changes in gravity level. Experiments with air and water were performed, first in the normogravity environment of a ground laboratory and then in 'zero gravity' aboard a KC-135 aircraft flying parabolic trajectories. Data reduction confirmed regime boundary shifts in the direction predicted, although the magnitude was a little less than predicted. Pressure drop measurements showed significant increases for the low gravity condition.

Analysis of the economic and ecological performances in the transient regimes of the European driving cycle for a midsize SUV equipped with a DHEP, using the simulation platforms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bancă, Gheorghe; Ivan, Florian; Iozsa, Daniel; Nisulescu, Valentin

2017-10-01

Currently, the tendency of the car manufacturers is to continue the expansion of the global production of SUVs (Sport Utility Vehicle), while observing the requirements imposed by the new pollution standards by developing new technologies like DHEP (Diesel Hybrid Electric Powertrain). Experience has shown that the transient regimes are the most difficult to control from an economic and ecological perspective. As a result, this paper will highlight the behaviour of such engines that are provided in a middle class SUV (Sport Utility Vehicle), which operates in such states. We selected the transient regimes characteristic to the NMVEG (New Motor Vehicle Emissions Group) cycle. The investigations using the modelling platform AMESim allowed for rigorous interpretations for the 16 acceleration and 18 deceleration states. The results obtained from the simulation will be validated by experiments.

Envisioning, quantifying, and managing thermal regimes on river networks

USGS Publications Warehouse

Steel, E. Ashley; Beechie, Timothy J.; Torgersen, Christian E.; Fullerton, Aimee H.

2017-01-01

Water temperatures fluctuate in time and space, creating diverse thermal regimes on river networks. Temporal variability in these thermal landscapes has important biological and ecological consequences because of nonlinearities in physiological reactions; spatial diversity in thermal landscapes provides aquatic organisms with options to maximize growth and survival. However, human activities and climate change threaten to alter the dynamics of riverine thermal regimes. New data and tools can identify particular facets of the thermal landscape that describe ecological and management concerns and that are linked to human actions. The emerging complexity of thermal landscapes demands innovations in communication, opens the door to exciting research opportunities on the human impacts to and biological consequences of thermal variability, suggests improvements in monitoring programs to better capture empirical patterns, provides a framework for suites of actions to restore and protect the natural processes that drive thermal complexity, and indicates opportunities for better managing thermal landscapes.

Sagebrush identification, ecology, and palatability relative to sage-grouse

Treesearch

Roger Rosentreter

2005-01-01

Basic identification keys and comparison tables for 23 low and big sagebrush (Artemisia) taxa are presented. Differences in sagebrush ecology, soil temperature regimes, geographic range, palatability, mineralogy, and chemistry are discussed. Coumarin, a chemical produced in the glands of some Artemisia species, causes UV-light fluorescence of the...

Using LANDIS II to study the effects of global change in Siberia

Treesearch

Eric J. Gustafson; Brian R. Sturtevant; Anatoly Z. Shvidenko; Robert M. Scheller

2010-01-01

Landscape dynamics are characterized by complex interactions among multiple disturbance regimes, anthropogenic use and management, and the mosaic of diverse ecological conditions. LANDIS-IT is a landscape forest succession and disturbance model that independently simulates multiple ecological and disturbance processes, accounting for complex interactions to predict...

Fishy Business: Response of Stream Fish Assemblages to Small Hydro-power Plant Induced Flow Alteration in the Western Ghats, Karnataka

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rao, S. T.; Krishnaswamy, J.; Bhalla, R. S.

2017-12-01

Alteration of natural flow regimes is considered as a major threat to freshwater fish assemblages as it disturbs the water quality and micro-habitat features of rivers. Small hydro-power (SHP), which is being promoted as a clean and green substitute for large hydro-power generation, alters the natural flow regime of head-water streams by flow diversion and regulation. The effects of altered flow regime on tropical stream fish assemblages, driven by seasonality induced perturbations to water quality and microhabitat parameters are largely understudied. My study examined the potential consequences of flow alteration by SHPs on fish assemblages in two tributaries of the west-flowing Yettinahole River which flows through the reserved forests of Sakleshpur in the Western Ghats of Karnataka. The flow in one of the tributaries followed natural flow regime while the other comprised three regimes: a near-natural flow regime above the dam, rapidly varying discharge below the dam and a dewatered regime caused by flow diversion. The study found that the altered flow regime differed from natural flow regime in terms of water quality, microhabitat heterogeneity and fish assemblage response, each indicative of the type of flow alteration. Fish assemblage in the natural flow regime was characterized by a higher catch per site, a strong association of endemic and trophic specialist species. The flow regime above the dam was found to mimic some components of the natural flow regime, both ecological and environmental. Non endemic, generalist and pool tolerant species were associated with the dewatered regime. There was a lack of strong species-regime association and an overall low catch per site for the flow regulated regime below the dam. This study highlights the consequences of altered flows on the composition of freshwater fish assemblages and portrays the potential of freshwater fish as indicators of the degree and extent of flow alteration. The study recommends the need for maintaining continuous flow data records to model ecological data with hydrological measurements. In the light of rapid SHP development, the study also suggests environmental / cumulative impact assessments of SHPs on the river basin.

Spatial and temporal variation of water temperature regimes on the Snoqualmie River network

Treesearch

Ashley E. Steel; Colin Sowder; Erin E. Peterson

2016-01-01

Although mean temperatures change annually and are highly correlated with elevation, the entire thermal regime on the Snoqualmie River, Washington, USA does not simply shift with elevation or season. Particular facets of the thermal regime have unique spatial patterns on the river network and at particular times of the year. We used a spatially and temporally dense...

Spatially explicit modeling of mixed-severity fire regimes and landscape dynamics

Treesearch

Michael C. Wimberly; Rebecca S.H. Kennedy

2008-01-01

Simulation models of disturbance and succession are being increasingly applied to characterize landscape composition and dynamics under natural fire regimes, and to evaluate alternative management strategies for ecological restoration and fire hazard reduction. However, we have a limited understanding of how landscapes respond to changes in fire frequency, and about...

Hypoxic areas, density-dependence and food limitation drive the body condition of a heavily exploited marine fish predator

PubMed Central

Käll, Filip; Hansson, Martin; Baranova, Tatjana; Karlsson, Olle; Lundström, Karl; Neuenfeldt, Stefan; Hjelm, Joakim

2016-01-01

Investigating the factors regulating fish condition is crucial in ecology and the management of exploited fish populations. The body condition of cod (Gadus morhua) in the Baltic Sea has dramatically decreased during the past two decades, with large implications for the fishery relying on this resource. Here, we statistically investigated the potential drivers of the Baltic cod condition during the past 40 years using newly compiled fishery-independent biological data and hydrological observations. We evidenced a combination of different factors operating before and after the ecological regime shift that occurred in the Baltic Sea in the early 1990s. The changes in cod condition related to feeding opportunities, driven either by density-dependence or food limitation, along the whole period investigated and to the fivefold increase in the extent of hypoxic areas in the most recent 20 years. Hypoxic areas can act on cod condition through different mechanisms related directly to species physiology, or indirectly to behaviour and trophic interactions. Our analyses found statistical evidence for an effect of the hypoxia-induced habitat compression on cod condition possibly operating via crowding and density-dependent processes. These results furnish novel insights into the population dynamics of Baltic Sea cod that can aid the management of this currently threatened population. PMID:27853557

Ecology of eelgrass meadows of the Atlantic Coast: a community profile

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Thayer, G.W.; Kenworthy, W.J.; Fonseca, M.S.

1984-07-01

Eelgrass, Zostera marina, dominates the ecologically important but fragile seagrass communities along the east coast of the United States from North Carolina to Nova Scotia. Grasslike leaves and an extensive root and rhizome system enable eelgrass to exist in a shallow aquatic environment subject to waves, tides, and shifting sediments. Eelgrass meadows are highly productive, frequently rivaling agricultural croplands. They provide shelter and a rich variety of primary and secondary food resources, and form a nursery habitat for the life history stages of numerous fishery organisms. The leaves absorb and release nutrients, provide surfaces for attachment, reduce water current velocity,more » turbulence and scour, and promote accumulation of detritus. Rhizomes provide protection for benthic infauna and enhance sediment stability. Roots absorb and release nutrients to interstitial waters. Because of their shallow, subtidal existence, seagrasses are susceptible to perturbations of both the water column and sediments. Eelgrass meadows are impacted by dredging and filling, some commercial fishery harvest techniques, modification of normal temperature and salinity regimes, and addition of chemical wastes. Techniques have been developed to successfully restore eelgrass habitats, but a holistic approach to planning research and environmentally-related decisions is needed to avoid cumulative environmental impacts on these vital nursery areas. 64 figures, 16 tables.« less

Ecological effects of the Hayman Fire - Part 1: Historical (pre-1860) and current (1860-2002) fire regimes

Treesearch

William H. Romme; Thomas T. Veblen; Merrill R. Kaufmann; Rosemary Sherriff; Claudia M. Regan

2003-01-01

To address historical and current fire regimes in the Hayman landscape, we first present the concepts of “historical range of variability” and ”fire regime” to provide the necessary conceptual tools for evaluating fire occurrence, fire behavior, and fire effects. Next we summarize historical (pre-1860) fire frequency and fire effects for the major forest types of the...

Effective discharge analysis of ecological processes in streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Doyle, Martin W.; Stanley, Emily H.; Strayer, David L.; Jacobson, Robert B.; Schmidt, John C.

2005-01-01

Discharge is a master variable that controls many processes in stream ecosystems. However, there is uncertainty of which discharges are most important for driving particular ecological processes and thus how flow regime may influence entire stream ecosystems. Here the analytical method of effective discharge from fluvial geomorphology is used to analyze the interaction between frequency and magnitude of discharge events that drive organic matter transport, algal growth, nutrient retention, macroinvertebrate disturbance, and habitat availability. We quantify the ecological effective discharge using a synthesis of previously published studies and modeling from a range of study sites. An analytical expression is then developed for a particular case of ecological effective discharge and is used to explore how effective discharge varies within variable hydrologic regimes. Our results suggest that a range of discharges is important for different ecological processes in an individual stream. Discharges are not equally important; instead, effective discharge values exist that correspond to near modal flows and moderate floods for the variable sets examined. We suggest four types of ecological response to discharge variability: discharge as a transport mechanism, regulator of habitat, process modulator, and disturbance. Effective discharge analysis will perform well when there is a unique, essentially instantaneous relationship between discharge and an ecological process and poorly when effects of discharge are delayed or confounded by legacy effects. Despite some limitations the conceptual and analytical utility of the effective discharge analysis allows exploring general questions about how hydrologic variability influences various ecological processes in streams.

Shifting Pacific storm tracks as stressors to ecosystems of western North America.

PubMed

Dannenberg, Matthew P; Wise, Erika K

2017-11-01

Much of the precipitation delivered to western North America arrives during the cool season via midlatitude Pacific storm tracks, which may experience future shifts in response to climate change. Here, we assess the sensitivity of the hydroclimate and ecosystems of western North America to the latitudinal position of cool-season Pacific storm tracks. We calculated correlations between storm track variability and three hydroclimatic variables: gridded cool-season standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index, April snow water equivalent, and water year streamflow from a network of USGS stream gauges. To assess how historical storm track variability affected ecosystem processes, we derived forest growth estimates from a large network of tree-ring widths and land surface phenology and wildfire estimates from remote sensing. From 1980 to 2014, cool-season storm tracks entered western North America between approximately 41°N and 53°N. Cool-season moisture supply and snowpack responded strongly to storm track position, with positive correlations to storm track latitude in eastern Alaska and northwestern Canada but negative correlations in the northwestern U.S. Ecosystems of the western United States were greener and more productive following winters with south-shifted storm tracks, while Canadian ecosystems were greener in years when the cool-season storm track was shifted to the north. On average, larger areas of the northwestern United States were burned by moderate to high severity wildfires when storm tracks were displaced north, and the average burn area per fire also tended to be higher in years with north-shifted storm tracks. These results suggest that projected shifts of Pacific storm tracks over the 21st century would likely alter hydroclimatic and ecological regimes in western North America, particularly in the northwestern United States, where moisture supply and ecosystem processes are highly sensitive to the position of cool-season storm tracks. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Phylogeny predicts future habitat shifts due to climate change.

PubMed

Kuntner, Matjaž; Năpăruş, Magdalena; Li, Daiqin; Coddington, Jonathan A

2014-01-01

Taxa may respond differently to climatic changes, depending on phylogenetic or ecological effects, but studies that discern among these alternatives are scarce. Here, we use two species pairs from globally distributed spider clades, each pair representing two lifestyles (generalist, specialist) to test the relative importance of phylogeny versus ecology in predicted responses to climate change. We used a recent phylogenetic hypothesis for nephilid spiders to select four species from two genera (Nephilingis and Nephilengys) that match the above criteria, are fully allopatric but combined occupy all subtropical-tropical regions. Based on their records, we modeled each species niche spaces and predicted their ecological shifts 20, 40, 60, and 80 years into the future using customized GIS tools and projected climatic changes. Phylogeny better predicts the species current ecological preferences than do lifestyles. By 2080 all species face dramatic reductions in suitable habitat (54.8-77.1%) and adapt by moving towards higher altitudes and latitudes, although at different tempos. Phylogeny and life style explain simulated habitat shifts in altitude, but phylogeny is the sole best predictor of latitudinal shifts. Models incorporating phylogenetic relatedness are an important additional tool to predict accurately biotic responses to global change.

Response of Tropical Stream Fish Assemblages to Small Hydropower Induced Flow Alteration in the Western Ghats of Karnataka, India.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rao, S. T.

2016-12-01

Alteration of natural flow regime is considered as one of the major threats to tropical stream fish assemblages as it alters the physio-chemical and micro-habitat features of the river. Flow alteration induced by Small hydro-power (SHP) plants disrupts the flow regime by flow diversion and regulation. The effects of flow alteration on tropical stream fish assemblages, especially in the Western Ghats of India is largely understudied. Such a knowledge is imperative to set limits on flow alteration as SHPs in the Western Ghats are being planned at an unprecedented rate with exemption from environment impact assessments and backing in the form of government subsidies and carbon credits. This study aimed to understand the response of fish assemblages to SHP induced flow alteration in a regulated and unregulated tributary of the Yettinahole River in the Western Ghats of Karnataka. The study intended to quantify the natural and altered flow regime using automated periodic depth measurements, its effect on micro-habitats and environmental variables and finally, understand how fish assemblages respond to such changes. The response of fish assemblage was measured in terms of catch-per-site, species-regime associations and ecological distance between the regimes. The study used a space for time substitution approach and found that the altered flow regime dampened the diurnal and seasonal patterns of natural flow regime. The altered flow regime influenced variations in water quality, micro-habitat heterogeneity and fish assemblage response, each characteristic of the type of flow alteration. The natural flow regime was found to have a higher catch-per-site and strong associations with endemic and niche-specific taxa. Compositional dissimilarities, in terms of ecological distance were observed between the altered and the natural flow regime. Dewatered or flow diverted regime contained species with lentic affinities while an overall low catch-per-site and weak species-regime association was found in the flow regulated regime. The study highlights the importance of natural flow regime in maintaining native biodiversity and suggests the need for cumulative impact assessments for setting limits on flow alteration.

Arctic biodiversity: Increasing richness accompanies shrinking refugia for a cold-associated tundra fauna

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hope, Andrew G.; Waltari, Eric; Malaney, Jason L.; Payer, David C.; Cook, J.A.; Talbot, Sandra L.

2015-01-01

As ancestral biodiversity responded dynamically to late-Quaternary climate changes, so are extant organisms responding to the warming trajectory of the Anthropocene. Ecological predictive modeling, statistical hypothesis tests, and genetic signatures of demographic change can provide a powerful integrated toolset for investigating these biodiversity responses to climate change, and relative resiliency across different communities. Within the biotic province of Beringia, we analyzed specimen localities and DNA sequences from 28 mammal species associated with boreal forest and Arctic tundra biomes to assess both historical distributional and evolutionary responses and then forecasted future changes based on statistical assessments of past and present trajectories, and quantified distributional and demographic changes in relation to major management regions within the study area. We addressed three sets of hypotheses associated with aspects of methodological, biological, and socio-political importance by asking (1) what is the consistency among implications of predicted changes based on the results of both ecological and evolutionary analyses; (2) what are the ecological and evolutionary implications of climate change considering either total regional diversity or distinct communities associated with major biomes; and (3) are there differences in management implications across regions? Our results indicate increasing Arctic richness through time that highlights a potential state shift across the Arctic landscape. However, within distinct ecological communities, we found a predicted decline in the range and effective population size of tundra species into several discrete refugial areas. Consistency in results based on a combination of both ecological and evolutionary approaches demonstrates increased statistical confidence by applying cross-discipline comparative analyses to conservation of biodiversity, particularly considering variable management regimes that seek to balance sustainable ecosystems with other anthropogenic values. Refugial areas for cold-adapted taxa appear to be persistent across both warm and cold climate phases and although fragmented, constitute vital regions for persistence of Arctic mammals.

Evaluation of ecological instream flow using multiple ecological indicators with consideration of hydrological alterations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Qiang; Gu, Xihui; Singh, Vijay P.; Chen, Xiaohong

2015-10-01

Dam-induced hydrological alterations and related ecological problems have been arousing considerable concern from hydrologists, ecologists, and policy-makers. The East River basin in China is the major provider of water resources for mega-cities within the Pearl River Delta and meets 80% of annual water demand of Hong Kong. In this study, ecodeficit and ecosurplus were analyzed to determine the ecological impact of water impoundments. Also, Do and DHRAM were employed to evaluate the degree of alteration of hydrological regimes, and ERHIs were analyzed to evaluate the influence of hydrological alterations on ecological diversity. Results indicate that: (1) the magnitude and frequency of high flows decrease and those of low flows increase due to the regulation of reservoirs; (2) variations of annual ecosurplus are mainly the result of precipitation changes and the annual ecodeficit is significantly influenced by reservoirs. However, ecodeficit and ecosurplus in other seasons, particularly autumn and winter, are more influenced by reservoir regulation; (3) impacts of reservoirs on hydrological regimes and eco-flow regimes are different from one station to another due to different degrees of influence of reservoirs on hydrological processes at different stations. The longer the distance between a reservoir and a hydrological station is, the weaker the influence the water reservoir has on the hydrological processes; (4) ecodeficit and ecosurplus can be accepted in the evaluation of alterations of hydrological processes at annual and seasonal time scales. Results of Shannon Index indicate decreasing biological diversity after the construction of water reservoirs, implying negative impacts of water reservoirs on biological diversity of a river basin and this should arouse considerable human concerns. This study provides a theoretical background for water resources management with consideration of eco-flow variations due to reservoir regulation in other highly-regulated river basins of the globe.

Disturbance ecology of high-elevation five-needle pine ecosystems in western North America

Treesearch

Elizabeth M. Campbell; Robert E. Keane; Evan R. Larson; Michael P. Murray; Anna W. Schoettle; Carmen Wong

2011-01-01

This paper synthesizes existing information about the disturbance ecology of high-elevation five-needle pine ecosystems, describing disturbances regimes, how they are changing or are expected to change, and the implications for ecosystem persistence. As it provides the context for ecosystem conservation/restoration programs, we devote particular attention to wildfire...

Evaluating Effects of Pump-Storage Water Withdrawals Using an Individual-Based Metapopulation Model of a Benthic Fish Species

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-04-01

Bunn S. E. and Arthington A.H. 2002. Basic principles and ecological consequences of altered flow regimes on aquatic biodiversity . Environmental...cycling in streams: can fish create biogeochemical hotspots ? Ecology 89: 2335-2346. Matthews W.J. and Marsh-Matthews E. 2003. Effects of drought on

Restoration ecology: A new forest management paradigm, or another merit badge for foresters?

Treesearch

Michael R. Wagner; William M. Block; Brian W. Geils; Karl F Wenger

2000-01-01

Focusing on the Southwest but raising questions that are more broadly applicable, we compare ecological restoration with conventional management regimes -- multiple-use management, ecosystem management, and managing for specific resourse objectives. That restoration assumes a holistic prespective and active intervention does not distinguish it from other approaches to...

Regional drought shifts (1710-2010) in East Central Asia and linkages with atmospheric circulation recorded in tree-ring δ18O

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Guobao; Liu, Xiaohong; Trouet, Valerie; Treydte, Kerstin; Wu, Guoju; Chen, Tuo; Sun, Weizhen; An, Wenling; Wang, Wenzhi; Zeng, Xiaomin; Qin, Dahe

2018-04-01

Drought occurrence and duration in central Asia are of important socioeconomic, ecological, and geophysical significance and have received increasing research attention in recent years. Understanding long-term drought trends and their driving forces require reliable records of past drought variability with broad spatial representativeness. Here, we compiled four tree-ring δ18O records from eastern central Asia (ECA) and composited them into a drought-sensitive proxy to explore regional ECA moisture variations over the past 301 years (1710-2010 CE). A robust regional standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI) reconstruction was established based on the tree-ring cellulose δ18O fractionation mechanism and statistically significant proxy-climate relationships. We identified prominent droughts in 1710-1770, 1810-1830, and the beginning of the twenty-first century, and a regime shift to a persistently wet period from the 1880s to 2000. Our reconstruction reveals the impact of drought and pluvial patterns on the decline of Zhungar Empire, and on historical agricultural and socio-economical activities, including increased migration into ECA during the 1770-1800 pluvial. Our findings also suggest that wet conditions in the twentieth century in ECA were related to a strengthening of the westerly circulation and thus shed light on large-scale atmospheric circulation dynamics in central Asia.

Wildfire and management of forests and native fishes: Conflict or opportunity for convergent solutions?

Treesearch

Bruce E. Rieman; Paul F. Hessburg; Charles Luce; Matthew R. Dare

2010-01-01

Wildfire is a critical land management issue in the western United States. Efforts to mitigate the effects of altered fire regimes have led to debate over ecological restoration versus species conservation framed at the conjuncture of terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems and their respective management regimes. Fire-related management activities may disrupt watershed...

Wildland fire in ecosystems: effects of fire on flora

Treesearch

James K. Brown; Jane Kapler Smith

2000-01-01

VOLUME 2: This state-of-knowledge review about the effects of fire on flora and fuels can assist land managers with ecosystem and fire management planning and in their efforts to inform others about the ecological role of fire. Chapter topics include fire regime classification, autecological effects of fire, fire regime characteristics and postfire plant community...

Barriers to adaptive reasoning in community ecology.

PubMed

McLachlan, Athol J; Ladle, Richard J

2011-08-01

Recent high-profile calls for a more trait-focused approach to community ecology have the potential to open up novel research areas, generate new insights and to transform community ecology into a more predictive science. However, a renewed emphasis on function and phenotype also requires a fundamental shift in approach and research philosophy within community ecology to more fully embrace evolutionary reasoning. Such a subject-wise transformation will be difficult due to at least four factors: (1) the historical development of the academic discipline of ecology and its roots as a descriptive science; (2) the dominating role of the ecosystem concept in the driving of contemporary ecological thought; (3) the practical difficulties associated with defining and identifying (phenotypic) adaptations, and; (4) scaling effects in ecology; the difficulty of teasing apart the overlapping and shifting hierarchical processes that generate the observed environment-trait correlations in nature. We argue that the ability to predict future ecological conditions through a sufficient understanding of ecological processes will not be achieved without the placement of the concept of adaptation at the centre of ecology, with influence radiating outwards through all the related (and rapidly specializing) sub-disciplines. © 2010 The Authors. Biological Reviews © 2010 Cambridge Philosophical Society.

Comparative analysis of European wide marine ecosystem shifts: a large-scale approach for developing the basis for ecosystem-based management.

PubMed

Möllmann, Christian; Conversi, Alessandra; Edwards, Martin

2011-08-23

Abrupt and rapid ecosystem shifts (where major reorganizations of food-web and community structures occur), commonly termed regime shifts, are changes between contrasting and persisting states of ecosystem structure and function. These shifts have been increasingly reported for exploited marine ecosystems around the world from the North Pacific to the North Atlantic. Understanding the drivers and mechanisms leading to marine ecosystem shifts is crucial in developing adaptive management strategies to achieve sustainable exploitation of marine ecosystems. An international workshop on a comparative approach to analysing these marine ecosystem shifts was held at Hamburg University, Institute for Hydrobiology and Fisheries Science, Germany on 1-3 November 2010. Twenty-seven scientists from 14 countries attended the meeting, representing specialists from seven marine regions, including the Baltic Sea, the North Sea, the Barents Sea, the Black Sea, the Mediterranean Sea, the Bay of Biscay and the Scotian Shelf off the Canadian East coast. The goal of the workshop was to conduct the first large-scale comparison of marine ecosystem regime shifts across multiple regional areas, in order to support the development of ecosystem-based management strategies. This journal is © 2011 The Royal Society

Geographic variation in Pacific herring growth in response to regime shifts in the North Pacific Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ito, Shin-ichi; Rose, Kenneth A.; Megrey, Bernard A.; Schweigert, Jake; Hay, Douglas; Werner, Francisco E.; Aita, Maki Noguchi

2015-11-01

Pacific herring populations at eight North Pacific Rim locations were simulated to compare basin-wide geographic variations in age-specific growth due to environmental influences on marine productivity and population-specific responses to regime shifts. Temperature and zooplankton abundance from a three-dimensional lower-trophic ecosystem model (NEMURO: North Pacific Ecosystem Model for Understanding Regional Oceanography) simulation from 1948 to 2002 were used as inputs to a herring bioenergetics growth model. Herring populations from California, the west coast of Vancouver Island (WCVI), Prince William Sound (PWS), Togiak Alaska, the western Bering Sea (WBS), the Sea of Okhotsk (SO), Sakhalin, and Peter the Great Bay (PGB) were examined. The half-saturation coefficients of herring feeding were calibrated to climatological conditions at each of the eight locations to reproduce averaged size-at-age data. The depth of averaging used for water temperature and zooplankton, and the maximum consumption rate parameter, were made specific to each location. Using the calibrated half-saturation coefficients, the 1948-2002 period was then simulated using daily values of water temperature and zooplankton densities interpolated from monthly model output. To detect regime shifts in simulated temperatures, zooplankton and herring growth rates, we applied sequential t-test analyses on the 54 years of hindcast simulation values. The detected shifts of herring age-5 growth showed closest match (69%) to the regime shift years (1957/58, 1970/71, 1976/77, 1988/89, 1998/99). We explored relationships among locations using cluster and principal component analyses. The first principal component of water temperature showed good correspondence to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and all zooplankton groups showed a pan-Pacific decrease after the 1976/77 regime shift. However, the first principal component of herring growth rate showed decreased growth at the SO, PWS, WCVI and California locations and increased growth at the Sakhalin, WBS and Togiak locations after 1977. The SO location belonged to the same cluster as the location in with the eastern North Pacific. The calibrated half-saturation coefficients affected the degree to which growth was sensitive to interannual variation in water temperature versus zooplankton. For example, the half-saturation values for the SO location resulted in very efficient feeding that shifted the sensitivity of herring growth from food to temperature. The model results demonstrate how geographic specificity of bioenergetics parameters, coupled with location-specific variation in temperature and food, can combine to determine local and regional responses of fish growth to climate forcing.

An ecological economic assessment of flow regimes in a hydropower dominated river basin: the case of the lower Zambezi River, Mozambique.

PubMed

Fanaian, Safa; Graas, Susan; Jiang, Yong; van der Zaag, Pieter

2015-02-01

The flow regime of rivers, being an integral part of aquatic ecosystems, provides many important services benefiting humans in catchments. Past water resource developments characterized by river embankments and dams, however, were often dominated by one (or few) economic use(s) of water. This results in a dramatically changed flow regime negatively affecting the provision of other ecosystem services sustained by the river flow. This study is intended to demonstrate the value of alternative flow regimes in a river that is highly modified by the presence of large hydropower dams and reservoirs, explicitly accounting for a broad range of flow-dependent ecosystem services. In this study, we propose a holistic approach for conducting an ecological economic assessment of a river's flow regime. This integrates recent advances in the conceptualization and classification of ecosystem services (UK NEA, 2011) with the flow regime evaluation technique developed by Korsgaard (2006). This integrated approach allows for a systematic comparison of the economic values of alternative flow regimes, including those that are considered beneficial for aquatic ecosystems. As an illustration, we applied this combined approach to the Lower Zambezi Basin, Mozambique. Empirical analysis shows that even though re-operating dams to create environmentally friendly flow regimes reduces hydropower benefits, the gains to goods derived from the aquatic ecosystem may offset the forgone hydropower benefits, thereby increasing the total economic value of river flow to society. The proposed integrated flow assessment approach can be a useful tool for welfare-improving decision-making in managing river basins. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Early Detection of Regime Shifts in Complex Systems from Fisher Information

EPA Science Inventory

The central goal of sustainability is the maintenance of environmental conditions, which are favorable to human existence. A critically important element then is the resilience of the dynamic regime that one wishes to sustain. Resilient systems are able to withstand perturbations...

Redesigning reservoir compensation releases for ecological beenfit

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maynard, Carly

2010-05-01

River regulation is commonplace in England and much of the UK. Regulation for the purposes of public water supply causes flows downstream of a reservoir to be attenuated and the flow regime of the channel to be altered. The impact of channel impoundment on a small, upland UK river, has been assessed and methods for mitigation of ecological impacts explored. The method utilised a unique macroinvertebrate data set for pre- and post-impoundment periods to quantify the impact of Derwent Reservoir and the steady, continuous compensation release into the River Derwent, Northumberland. Impacts on the hydrological regime were also investigated and links drawn between changes in flow regime and changes in macroinvertebrate richness and diversity as a result of impoundment. In response to the claim that the impoundment has caused a change in flow regime and had deleterious effects on fish and macroinvertebrates, a compensation redesign tool (CRAB: Compensation Release Assessment at the Broad scale) was employed to design new compensation release regimes from the reservoir which account for the seasonal flow requirements of a number of key fish species. The impact of impoundment on the current flow regime was modelled and the impacts of predicted new regimes were predicted, using a 1D hydrodynamic model (HEC-RAS), as part of a modelling process known as CRAM (Compensation Release Assessment at the Meso-scale). Depth and velocity were the foci of the analysis as they are the two habitat requirements most well documented for the fish species in question, they could be modelled using HEC-RAS and they can act as surrogates for other habitat parameters such as temperature and substrate. The suitability of the depth and velocity combinations predicted using the HEC-RAS model were assessed using fuzzy-rule based modelling, which allowed the habitat quality of a given parameter combination to be quantified. Based on the results of the investigation it was concluded that there has been a change in flow regime and in ecological community structure since impoundment. The flow regime of the River Derwent has become less flashy with fewer extreme events, while macroinvertebrate richness and diversity have increased. The new flow regimes that were designed by CRAB, based on the depth and velocity requirements of brown trout, grayling and Atlantic salmon were predicted through CRAM to have minimal benefits for the fish populations of the River Derwent and it was concluded that no changes to flow regime should be made based solely on the assessment of habitat for fish. Impacts for the macroinvertebrate communities must also be considered as well as the impacts on other aspects of fish habitat including temperature, substrate and cover. A more detailed, micro-scale investigation into the effects of changing flow regime would be required to warrant a change in compensation release regime from Derwent Reservoir.

Ecological resistance in urban streams: the role of natural and legacy attributes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Utz, Ryan M.; Hopkins, Kristina G.; Beesley, Leah; Booth, Derek B.; Hawley, Robert J.; Baker, Matthew E.; Freeman, Mary C.; Jones, Krista L.

2016-01-01

Urbanization substantially changes the physicochemical and biological characteristics of streams. The trajectory of negative effect is broadly similar around the world, but the nature and magnitude of ecological responses to urban growth differ among locations. Some heterogeneity in response arises from differences in the level of urban development and attributes of urban water management. However, the heterogeneity also may arise from variation in hydrologic, biological, and physicochemical templates that shaped stream ecosystems before urban development. We present a framework to develop hypotheses that predict how natural watershed and channel attributes in the pre-urban-development state may confer ecological resistance to urbanization. We present 6 testable hypotheses that explore the expression of such attributes under our framework: 1) greater water storage capacity mitigates hydrologic regime shifts, 2) coarse substrates and a balance between erosive forces and sediment supply buffer morphological changes, 3) naturally high ionic concentrations and pH pre-adapt biota to water-quality stress, 4) metapopulation connectivity results in retention of species richness, 5) high functional redundancy buffers trophic function from species loss, and 6) landuse history mutes or reverses the expected trajectory of eutrophication. Data from past comparative analyses support these hypotheses, but rigorous testing will require targeted investigations that account for confounding or interacting factors, such as diversity in urban infrastructure attributes. Improved understanding of the susceptibility or resistance of stream ecosystems could substantially strengthen conservation, management, and monitoring efforts in urban streams. We hope that these preliminary, conceptual hypotheses will encourage others to explore these ideas further and generate additional explanations for the heterogeneity observed in urban streams.

Climate-driven disparities among ecological interactions threaten kelp forest persistence.

PubMed

Provost, Euan J; Kelaher, Brendan P; Dworjanyn, Symon A; Russell, Bayden D; Connell, Sean D; Ghedini, Giulia; Gillanders, Bronwyn M; Figueira, WillIAM; Coleman, Melinda A

2017-01-01

The combination of ocean warming and acidification brings an uncertain future to kelp forests that occupy the warmest parts of their range. These forests are not only subject to the direct negative effects of ocean climate change, but also to a combination of unknown indirect effects associated with changing ecological landscapes. Here, we used mesocosm experiments to test the direct effects of ocean warming and acidification on kelp biomass and photosynthetic health, as well as climate-driven disparities in indirect effects involving key consumers (urchins and rock lobsters) and competitors (algal turf). Elevated water temperature directly reduced kelp biomass, while their turf-forming competitors expanded in response to ocean acidification and declining kelp canopy. Elevated temperatures also increased growth of urchins and, concurrently, the rate at which they thinned kelp canopy. Rock lobsters, which are renowned for keeping urchin populations in check, indirectly intensified negative pressures on kelp by reducing their consumption of urchins in response to elevated temperature. Overall, these results suggest that kelp forests situated towards the low-latitude margins of their distribution will need to adapt to ocean warming in order to persist in the future. What is less certain is how such adaptation in kelps can occur in the face of intensifying consumptive (via ocean warming) and competitive (via ocean acidification) pressures that affect key ecological interactions associated with their persistence. If such indirect effects counter adaptation to changing climate, they may erode the stability of kelp forests and increase the probability of regime shifts from complex habitat-forming species to more simple habitats dominated by algal turfs. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Ecological divergence and evolutionary transition of resprouting types in Banksia attenuata.

PubMed

He, Tianhua

2014-08-01

Resprouting is a key functional trait that allows plants to survive diverse disturbances. The fitness benefits associated with resprouting include a rapid return to adult growth, early flowering, and setting seed. The resprouting responses observed following fire are varied, as are the ecological outcomes. Understanding the ecological divergence and evolutionary pathways of different resprouting types and how the environment and genetics interact to drive such morphological evolution represents an important, but under-studied, topic. In the present study, microsatellite markers and microevolutionary approaches were used to better understand: (1) whether genetic differentiation is related to morphological divergence among resprouting types and if so, whether there are any specific genetic variations associated with morphological divergence and (2) the evolutionary pathway of the transitions between two resprouting types in Banksia attenuata (epicormic resprouting from aerial stems or branch; resprouting from a underground lignotuber). The results revealed an association between population genetic differentiation and the morphological divergence of postfire resprouting types in B. attenuata. A microsatellite allele has been shown to be associated with epicormic populations. Approximate Bayesian Computation analysis revealed a likely evolutionary transition from epicormic to lignotuberous resprouting in B. attenuata. It is concluded that the postfire resprouting type in B. attenuata is likely determined by the fire's characteristics. The differentiated expression of postfire resprouting types in different environments is likely a consequence of local genetic adaptation. The capacity to shift the postfire resprouting type to adapt to diverse fire regimes is most likely the key factor explaining why B. attenuata is the most widespread member of the Banksia genus.

Abrupt and severe 20th Century changes in the fire regimes of southeastern Australia: Evidence from a 3000 year multi-proxy analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baker, Patrick; Mooney, Scott; Allen, Kathryn; Willersdorf, Timothy

2015-04-01

Fire is the dominant natural disturbance in southeastern Australia. For millennia it has been the driving force shaping terrestrial ecosystems in the region -- simultaneously killing vegetation and initiating regeneration across whole landscapes. Fire regimes across the region are driven by several factors including climate, vegetation, and ignition sources. Humans have been a significant contributing factor to past and present fire regimes. Prior to European settlement in the late 1700s, Aboriginal Australians used frequent, low-intensity fires to manage vegetation across much of the landscape. European settlement led to the displacement of Aboriginal communities and a shift to active fire suppression and control. This changing approach to fire management is widely believed to have initiated a fundamental shift towards extreme, high-intensity fire events as fuel loads increased. In addition, during the 20th Century prolonged periods of warm, dry conditions have occurred with greater frequency and intensity. The relative importance of climate and fire management practices on contemporary fire regimes is vigorously debated in Australia and is directly relevant to land management policies and their implementation. To put the current fire regime into historical context, we used a multi-proxy approach combining palaeo-charcoal and tree-ring analyses to assess how fire regimes have changed over the last 3000 years in the Snowy Mountains region of southeastern Australia. We found almost no evidence of high-intensity fires in the 3000 years that preceded the 20th Century. However, in the mid-20th Century there is a sudden and dramatic increase in the presence of charcoal and the pulsed establishment of trees across the landscape, suggesting a recent shift from low-intensity fires with minimal charcoal signatures to moderate- to high-intensity fires with substantial charcoal inputs. Importantly, the tree-ring data demonstrate that most of these fires were not stand-replacing and led to the establishment of multiple-age cohorts. While there is a clear shift in the fire regime in the 20th Century, the intensification of fire occurs nearly 150 years after European settlement in this area and has led to the establishment of complex, multi-aged forests across the landscape, suggesting an important interaction between fire management practices associated with European settlement and changing climatic conditions.

Historical, observed, and modeled wildfire severity in montane forests of the Colorado Front Range.

PubMed

Sherriff, Rosemary L; Platt, Rutherford V; Veblen, Thomas T; Schoennagel, Tania L; Gartner, Meredith H

2014-01-01

Large recent fires in the western U.S. have contributed to a perception that fire exclusion has caused an unprecedented occurrence of uncharacteristically severe fires, particularly in lower elevation dry pine forests. In the absence of long-term fire severity records, it is unknown how short-term trends compare to fire severity prior to 20th century fire exclusion. This study compares historical (i.e. pre-1920) fire severity with observed modern fire severity and modeled potential fire behavior across 564,413 ha of montane forests of the Colorado Front Range. We used forest structure and tree-ring fire history to characterize fire severity at 232 sites and then modeled historical fire-severity across the entire study area using biophysical variables. Eighteen (7.8%) sites were characterized by low-severity fires and 214 (92.2%) by mixed-severity fires (i.e. including moderate- or high-severity fires). Difference in area of historical versus observed low-severity fire within nine recent (post-1999) large fire perimeters was greatest in lower montane forests. Only 16% of the study area recorded a shift from historical low severity to a higher potential for crown fire today. An historical fire regime of more frequent and low-severity fires at low elevations (<2260 m) supports a convergence of management goals of ecological restoration and fire hazard mitigation in those habitats. In contrast, at higher elevations mixed-severity fires were predominant historically and continue to be so today. Thinning treatments at higher elevations of the montane zone will not return the fire regime to an historic low-severity regime, and are of questionable effectiveness in preventing severe wildfires. Based on present-day fuels, predicted fire behavior under extreme fire weather continues to indicate a mixed-severity fire regime throughout most of the montane forest zone. Recent large wildfires in the Front Range are not fundamentally different from similar events that occurred historically under extreme weather conditions.

Flow regime alterations under changing climate in two river basins: Implications for freshwater ecosystems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gibson, C.A.; Meyer, J.L.; Poff, N.L.; Hay, L.E.; Georgakakos, A.

2005-01-01

We examined impacts of future climate scenarios on flow regimes and how predicted changes might affect river ecosystems. We examined two case studies: Cle Elum River, Washington, and Chattahoochee-Apalachicola River Basin, Georgia and Florida. These rivers had available downscaled global circulation model (GCM) data and allowed us to analyse the effects of future climate scenarios on rivers with (1) different hydrographs, (2) high future water demands, and (3) a river-floodplain system. We compared observed flow regimes to those predicted under future climate scenarios to describe the extent and type of changes predicted to occur. Daily stream flow under future climate scenarios was created by either statistically downscaling GCMs (Cle Elum) or creating a regression model between climatological parameters predicted from GCMs and stream flow (Chattahoochee-Apalachicola). Flow regimes were examined for changes from current conditions with respect to ecologically relevant features including the magnitude and timing of minimum and maximum flows. The Cle Elum's hydrograph under future climate scenarios showed a dramatic shift in the timing of peak flows and lower low flow of a longer duration. These changes could mean higher summer water temperatures, lower summer dissolved oxygen, and reduced survival of larval fishes. The Chattahoochee-Apalachicola basin is heavily impacted by dams and water withdrawals for human consumption; therefore, we made comparisons between pre-large dam conditions, current conditions, current conditions with future demand, and future climate scenarios with future demand to separate climate change effects and other anthropogenic impacts. Dam construction, future climate, and future demand decreased the flow variability of the river. In addition, minimum flows were lower under future climate scenarios. These changes could decrease the connectivity of the channel and the floodplain, decrease habitat availability, and potentially lower the ability of the river to assimilate wastewater treatment plant effluent. Our study illustrates the types of changes that river ecosystems might experience under future climates. Copyright ?? 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Historical, Observed, and Modeled Wildfire Severity in Montane Forests of the Colorado Front Range

PubMed Central

Sherriff, Rosemary L.; Platt, Rutherford V.; Veblen, Thomas T.; Schoennagel, Tania L.; Gartner, Meredith H.

2014-01-01

Large recent fires in the western U.S. have contributed to a perception that fire exclusion has caused an unprecedented occurrence of uncharacteristically severe fires, particularly in lower elevation dry pine forests. In the absence of long-term fire severity records, it is unknown how short-term trends compare to fire severity prior to 20th century fire exclusion. This study compares historical (i.e. pre-1920) fire severity with observed modern fire severity and modeled potential fire behavior across 564,413 ha of montane forests of the Colorado Front Range. We used forest structure and tree-ring fire history to characterize fire severity at 232 sites and then modeled historical fire-severity across the entire study area using biophysical variables. Eighteen (7.8%) sites were characterized by low-severity fires and 214 (92.2%) by mixed-severity fires (i.e. including moderate- or high-severity fires). Difference in area of historical versus observed low-severity fire within nine recent (post-1999) large fire perimeters was greatest in lower montane forests. Only 16% of the study area recorded a shift from historical low severity to a higher potential for crown fire today. An historical fire regime of more frequent and low-severity fires at low elevations (<2260 m) supports a convergence of management goals of ecological restoration and fire hazard mitigation in those habitats. In contrast, at higher elevations mixed-severity fires were predominant historically and continue to be so today. Thinning treatments at higher elevations of the montane zone will not return the fire regime to an historic low-severity regime, and are of questionable effectiveness in preventing severe wildfires. Based on present-day fuels, predicted fire behavior under extreme fire weather continues to indicate a mixed-severity fire regime throughout most of the montane forest zone. Recent large wildfires in the Front Range are not fundamentally different from similar events that occurred historically under extreme weather conditions. PMID:25251103

Global change and terrestrial plant community dynamics

DOE PAGES

Franklin, Janet; Serra-Diaz, Josep M.; Syphard, Alexandra D.; ...

2016-02-29

Anthropogenic drivers of global change include rising atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gasses and resulting changes in the climate, as well as nitrogen deposition, biotic invasions, altered disturbance regimes, and land-use change. Predicting the effects of global change on terrestrial plant communities is crucial because of the ecosystem services vegetation provides, from climate regulation to forest products. In this article, we present a framework for detecting vegetation changes and attributing them to global change drivers that incorporates multiple lines of evidence from spatially extensive monitoring networks, distributed experiments, remotely sensed data, and historical records. Based on amore » literature review, we summarize observed changes and then describe modeling tools that can forecast the impacts of multiple drivers on plant communities in an era of rapid change. Observed responses to changes in temperature, water, nutrients, land use, and disturbance show strong sensitivity of ecosystem productivity and plant population dynamics to water balance and long-lasting effects of disturbance on plant community dynamics. Persistent effects of land-use change and human-altered fire regimes on vegetation can overshadow or interact with climate change impacts. Models forecasting plant community responses to global change incorporate shifting ecological niches, population dynamics, species interactions, spatially explicit disturbance, ecosystem processes, and plant functional responses. Lastly, monitoring, experiments, and models evaluating multiple change drivers are needed to detect and predict vegetation changes in response to 21st century global change.« less

Global change and terrestrial plant community dynamics

PubMed Central

Franklin, Janet; Serra-Diaz, Josep M.; Syphard, Alexandra D.; Regan, Helen M.

2016-01-01

Anthropogenic drivers of global change include rising atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gasses and resulting changes in the climate, as well as nitrogen deposition, biotic invasions, altered disturbance regimes, and land-use change. Predicting the effects of global change on terrestrial plant communities is crucial because of the ecosystem services vegetation provides, from climate regulation to forest products. In this paper, we present a framework for detecting vegetation changes and attributing them to global change drivers that incorporates multiple lines of evidence from spatially extensive monitoring networks, distributed experiments, remotely sensed data, and historical records. Based on a literature review, we summarize observed changes and then describe modeling tools that can forecast the impacts of multiple drivers on plant communities in an era of rapid change. Observed responses to changes in temperature, water, nutrients, land use, and disturbance show strong sensitivity of ecosystem productivity and plant population dynamics to water balance and long-lasting effects of disturbance on plant community dynamics. Persistent effects of land-use change and human-altered fire regimes on vegetation can overshadow or interact with climate change impacts. Models forecasting plant community responses to global change incorporate shifting ecological niches, population dynamics, species interactions, spatially explicit disturbance, ecosystem processes, and plant functional responses. Monitoring, experiments, and models evaluating multiple change drivers are needed to detect and predict vegetation changes in response to 21st century global change. PMID:26929338

Near-term acceleration of hydroclimatic change in the western U.S

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ashfaq, M.; Diffenbaugh, N. S.

2013-05-01

Given its large population, vigorous and water-intensive agricultural industry, and important ecological resources, the western United States presents a valuable case study for examining potential near-term changes in regional hydroclimate. Using a high-resolution ensemble climate model experiment, we find that increases in greenhouse forcing over the next three decades result in an acceleration of decreases in spring snowpack and a transition to a substantially more liquid-dominated water resources regime. These hydroclimatic changes are associated with increases in cold-season days above freezing and decreases in the cold-season snow-to-precipitation ratio. The changes in the temperature and precipitation regime in turn result in shifts toward earlier snowmelt, baseflow, and runoff dates throughout the region, as well as reduced annual and warm-season snowmelt and runoff. The simulated hydrologic response is dominated by changes in temperature, with the ensemble members exhibiting varying trends in cold-season precipitation over the next three decades, but consistent negative trends in cold-season freeze days, cold-season snow-to-precipitation ratio, and April 1st snow water equivalent. Given the observed impacts of recent trends in snowpack and snowmelt runoff, the projected acceleration of hydroclimatic change in the western U.S. has important implications for the availability of water for agriculture, hydropower and human consumption, as well as for the risk of wildfire, forest die-off, and loss of riparian habitat.

Near-term acceleration of hydroclimatic change in the western U.S.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ashfaq, Moetasim

2013-04-01

Given its large population, vigorous and water-intensive agricultural industry, and important ecological resources, the western United States presents a valuable case study for examining potential near-term changes in regional hydroclimate. Using a high-resolution ensemble climate model experiment, we find that increases in greenhouse forcing over the next three decades result in an acceleration of decreases in spring snowpack and a transition to a substantially more liquid-dominated water resources regime. These hydroclimatic changes are associated with increases in cold-season days above freezing and decreases in the cold-season snow-to-precipitation ratio. The changes in the temperature and precipitation regime in turn result in shifts toward earlier snowmelt, baseflow, and runoff dates throughout the region, as well as reduced annual and warm-season snowmelt and runoff. The simulated hydrologic response is dominated by changes in temperature, with the ensemble members exhibiting varying trends in cold-season precipitation over the next three decades, but consistent negative trends in cold-season freeze days, cold-season snow-to-precipitation ratio, and April 1st snow water equivalent. Given the observed impacts of recent trends in snowpack and snowmelt runoff, the projected acceleration of hydroclimatic change in the western U.S. has important implications for the availability of water for agriculture, hydropower and human consumption, as well as for the risk of wildfire, forest die-off, and loss of riparian habitat.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Franklin, Janet; Serra-Diaz, Josep M.; Syphard, Alexandra D.

Anthropogenic drivers of global change include rising atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gasses and resulting changes in the climate, as well as nitrogen deposition, biotic invasions, altered disturbance regimes, and land-use change. Predicting the effects of global change on terrestrial plant communities is crucial because of the ecosystem services vegetation provides, from climate regulation to forest products. In this article, we present a framework for detecting vegetation changes and attributing them to global change drivers that incorporates multiple lines of evidence from spatially extensive monitoring networks, distributed experiments, remotely sensed data, and historical records. Based on amore » literature review, we summarize observed changes and then describe modeling tools that can forecast the impacts of multiple drivers on plant communities in an era of rapid change. Observed responses to changes in temperature, water, nutrients, land use, and disturbance show strong sensitivity of ecosystem productivity and plant population dynamics to water balance and long-lasting effects of disturbance on plant community dynamics. Persistent effects of land-use change and human-altered fire regimes on vegetation can overshadow or interact with climate change impacts. Models forecasting plant community responses to global change incorporate shifting ecological niches, population dynamics, species interactions, spatially explicit disturbance, ecosystem processes, and plant functional responses. Lastly, monitoring, experiments, and models evaluating multiple change drivers are needed to detect and predict vegetation changes in response to 21st century global change.« less

Light-induced plasticity in leaf hydraulics, venation, anatomy, and gas exchange in ecologically diverse Hawaiian lobeliads.

PubMed

Scoffoni, Christine; Kunkle, Justin; Pasquet-Kok, Jessica; Vuong, Christine; Patel, Amish J; Montgomery, Rebecca A; Givnish, Thomas J; Sack, Lawren

2015-07-01

Leaf hydraulic conductance (Kleaf ) quantifies the capacity of a leaf to transport liquid water and is a major constraint on light-saturated stomatal conductance (gs ) and photosynthetic rate (Amax ). Few studies have tested the plasticity of Kleaf and anatomy across growth light environments. These provided conflicting results. The Hawaiian lobeliads are an excellent system to examine plasticity, given the striking diversity in the light regimes they occupy, and their correspondingly wide range of Amax , allowing maximal carbon gain for success in given environments. We measured Kleaf , Amax , gs and leaf anatomical and structural traits, focusing on six species of lobeliads grown in a common garden under two irradiances (300/800 μmol photons m(-2)  s(-1) ). We tested hypotheses for light-induced plasticity in each trait based on expectations from optimality. Kleaf , Amax , and gs differed strongly among species. Sun/shade plasticity was observed in Kleaf , Amax, and numerous traits relating to lamina and xylem anatomy, venation, and composition, but gs was not plastic with growth irradiance. Species native to higher irradiance showed greater hydraulic plasticity. Our results demonstrate that a wide set of leaf hydraulic, stomatal, photosynthetic, anatomical, and structural traits tend to shift together during plasticity and adaptation to diverse light regimes, optimizing performance from low to high irradiance. © 2015 The Authors New Phytologist © 2015 New Phytologist Trust.

Scaling laws and complexity in fire regimes [Chapter 2

Treesearch

Donald McKenzie; Maureen Kennedy

2011-01-01

Use of scaling terminology and concepts in ecology evolved rapidly from rare occurrences in the early 1980s to a central idea by the early 1990s (Allen and Hoekstra 1992; Levin 1992; Peterson and Parker 1998). In landscape ecology, use of "scale" frequently connotes explicitly spatial considerations (Dungan et al. 2002), notably grain and extent. More...

Limnological regime shifts caused by climate warming and Lesser Snow Goose population expansion in the western Hudson Bay Lowlands (Manitoba, Canada)

PubMed Central

MacDonald, Lauren A; Farquharson, Nicole; Merritt, Gillian; Fooks, Sam; Medeiros, Andrew S; Hall, Roland I; Wolfe, Brent B; Macrae, Merrin L; Sweetman, Jon N

2015-01-01

Shallow lakes are dominant features in subarctic and Arctic landscapes and are responsive to multiple stressors, which can lead to rapid changes in limnological regimes with consequences for aquatic resources. We address this theme in the coastal tundra region of Wapusk National Park, western Hudson Bay Lowlands (Canada), where climate has warmed during the past century and the Lesser Snow Goose (LSG; Chen caerulescens caerulescens) population has grown rapidly during the past ∽40 years. Integration of limnological and paleolimnological analyses documents profound responses of productivity, nutrient cycling, and aquatic habitat to warming at three ponds (“WAP 12”, “WAP 20”, and “WAP 21″), and to LSG disturbance at the two ponds located in an active nesting area (WAP 20, WAP 21). Based on multiparameter analysis of 210Pb-dated sediment records from all three ponds, a regime shift occurred between 1875 and 1900 CE marked by a transition from low productivity, turbid, and nutrient-poor conditions of the Little Ice Age to conditions of higher productivity, lower nitrogen availability, and the development of benthic biofilm habitat as a result of climate warming. Beginning in the mid-1970s, sediment records from WAP 20 and WAP 21 reveal a second regime shift characterized by accelerated productivity and increased nitrogen availability. Coupled with 3 years of limnological data, results suggest that increased productivity at WAP 20 and WAP 21 led to atmospheric CO2 invasion to meet algal photosynthetic demand. This limnological regime shift is attributed to an increase in the supply of catchment-derived nutrients from the arrival of LSG and their subsequent disturbance to the landscape. Collectively, findings discriminate the consequences of warming and LSG disturbance on tundra ponds from which we identify a suite of sensitive limnological and paleolimnological measures that can be utilized to inform aquatic ecosystem monitoring. PMID:25750718

Limnological regime shifts caused by climate warming and Lesser Snow Goose population expansion in the western Hudson Bay Lowlands (Manitoba, Canada).

PubMed

MacDonald, Lauren A; Farquharson, Nicole; Merritt, Gillian; Fooks, Sam; Medeiros, Andrew S; Hall, Roland I; Wolfe, Brent B; Macrae, Merrin L; Sweetman, Jon N

2015-02-01

Shallow lakes are dominant features in subarctic and Arctic landscapes and are responsive to multiple stressors, which can lead to rapid changes in limnological regimes with consequences for aquatic resources. We address this theme in the coastal tundra region of Wapusk National Park, western Hudson Bay Lowlands (Canada), where climate has warmed during the past century and the Lesser Snow Goose (LSG; Chen caerulescens caerulescens) population has grown rapidly during the past ∽40 years. Integration of limnological and paleolimnological analyses documents profound responses of productivity, nutrient cycling, and aquatic habitat to warming at three ponds ("WAP 12", "WAP 20", and "WAP 21″), and to LSG disturbance at the two ponds located in an active nesting area (WAP 20, WAP 21). Based on multiparameter analysis of (210)Pb-dated sediment records from all three ponds, a regime shift occurred between 1875 and 1900 CE marked by a transition from low productivity, turbid, and nutrient-poor conditions of the Little Ice Age to conditions of higher productivity, lower nitrogen availability, and the development of benthic biofilm habitat as a result of climate warming. Beginning in the mid-1970s, sediment records from WAP 20 and WAP 21 reveal a second regime shift characterized by accelerated productivity and increased nitrogen availability. Coupled with 3 years of limnological data, results suggest that increased productivity at WAP 20 and WAP 21 led to atmospheric CO2 invasion to meet algal photosynthetic demand. This limnological regime shift is attributed to an increase in the supply of catchment-derived nutrients from the arrival of LSG and their subsequent disturbance to the landscape. Collectively, findings discriminate the consequences of warming and LSG disturbance on tundra ponds from which we identify a suite of sensitive limnological and paleolimnological measures that can be utilized to inform aquatic ecosystem monitoring.

Hydrologic regimes of forested, mountainous, headwater basins in New Hampshire, North Carolina, Oregon, and Puerto Rico

Treesearch

David A. Post; Julia A. Jones

2001-01-01

This study characterized the hydrologic regimes at four forested, mountainous long-term ecological research (LTER) sites: H.J. Andrews (Oregon), Coweeta (North Carolina), Hubbard Brook (New Hampshire), and Luquillo (Puerto Rico). Over 600 basinyears of daily streadow records were examined from 18 basins that have not experienced human disturbances since at least the...

Potential effects of timber harvest and water management on streamflow dynamics and sediment transport

Treesearch

C. A. Troendle; W. K. Olsen

1994-01-01

The sustainability of aquatic and riparian ecological systems is strongly tied to the dynamics of the streamflow regime. Timber harvest can influence the flow regime by increasing total flow, altering peak discharge rate, and changing the duration of flows of differing frequency of occurrence. These changes in the energy and sediment transporting capability of the...

Wave of fire: an anthropogenic signal in historical fire regimes across central Pennsylvania, USA

Treesearch

Michael C. Stambaugh; Joseph M. Marschall; Erin R. Abadir; Benjamin C. Jones; Patrick H. Brose; Daniel C. Dey; Richard P. Guyette

2018-01-01

Increasingly detailed records of long-term fire regime characteristics are needed to test ecological concepts and inform natural resource management and policymaking. We reconstructed and analyzed twelve 350+ yr-long fire scar records developed from 2612 tree-ring dated fire scars on 432 living and dead pine (Pinus pungens, Pinus rigida, Pinus resinosa, Pinus...

Continuing fire regimes in remote forests of Grand Canyon National Park

Treesearch

Peter Z. Fule; Thomas A. Heinlein; W. Wallace Covington; Margaret H. Moore

2000-01-01

Ponderosa pine forests in which frequent fire regimes continue up to the present would be invaluable points of reference for assessing natural ecological attributes. A few remote forests on the North Rim of Grand Canyon National Park come close to this ideal: never-harvested, distant from human communities and fire suppression resources, and with several low-intensity...

A hierarchical fire frequency model to simulate temporal patterns of fire regimes in LANDIS

Treesearch

Jian Yang; Hong S. He; Eric J. Gustafson

2004-01-01

Fire disturbance has important ecological effects in many forest landscapes. Existing statistically based approaches can be used to examine the effects of a fire regime on forest landscape dynamics. Most examples of statistically based fire models divide a fire occurrence into two stages--fire ignition and fire initiation. However, the exponential and Weibull fire-...

Development of the One-Sided Nonlinear Adaptive Doppler Shift Estimation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Beyon, Jeffrey Y.; Koch, Grady J.; Singh, Upendra N.; Kavaya, Michael J.; Serror, Judith A.

2009-01-01

The new development of a one-sided nonlinear adaptive shift estimation technique (NADSET) is introduced. The background of the algorithm and a brief overview of NADSET are presented. The new technique is applied to the wind parameter estimates from a 2-micron wavelength coherent Doppler lidar system called VALIDAR located in NASA Langley Research Center in Virginia. The new technique enhances wind parameters such as Doppler shift and power estimates in low Signal-To-Noise-Ratio (SNR) regimes using the estimates in high SNR regimes as the algorithm scans the range bins from low to high altitude. The original NADSET utilizes the statistics in both the lower and the higher range bins to refine the wind parameter estimates in between. The results of the two different approaches of NADSET are compared.

Bringing an ecological view of change to Landsat-based remote sensing

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kennedy, Robert E.; Andrefouet, Serge; Cohen, Warren; Gomez, Cristina; Griffiths, Patrick; Hais, Martin; Healey, Sean; Helmer, Eileen H.; Hostert, Patrick; Lyons, Mitchell; Meigs, Garrett; Pflugmacher, Dirk; Phinn, Stuart; Powell, Scott; Scarth, Peter; Susmita, Sen; Schroeder, Todd A.; Schneider, Annemarie; Sonnenschein, Ruth; Vogelmann, James; Wulder, Michael A.; Zhu, Zhe

2014-01-01

When characterizing the processes that shape ecosystems, ecologists increasingly use the unique perspective offered by repeat observations of remotely sensed imagery. However, the concept of change embodied in much of the traditional remote-sensing literature was primarily limited to capturing large or extreme changes occurring in natural systems, omitting many more subtle processes of interest to ecologists. Recent technical advances have led to a fundamental shift toward an ecological view of change. Although this conceptual shift began with coarser-scale global imagery, it has now reached users of Landsat imagery, since these datasets have temporal and spatial characteristics appropriate to many ecological questions. We argue that this ecologically relevant perspective of change allows the novel characterization of important dynamic processes, including disturbances, long-term trends, cyclical functions, and feedbacks, and that these improvements are already facilitating our understanding of critical driving forces, such as climate change, ecological interactions, and economic pressures.

Precipitation regime classification for the Mojave Desert: Implications for fire occurrence

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tagestad, Jerry; Brooks, Matthew L.; Cullinan, Valerie; Downs, Janelle; McKinley, Randy

2016-01-01

Long periods of drought or above-average precipitation affect Mojave Desert vegetation condition, biomass and susceptibility to fire. Changes in the seasonality of precipitation alter the likelihood of lightning, a key ignition source for fires. The objectives of this study were to characterize the relationship between recent, historic, and future precipitation patterns and fire. Classifying monthly precipitation data from 1971 to 2010 reveals four precipitation regimes: low winter/low summer, moderate winter/moderate summer, high winter/low summer and high winter/high summer. Two regimes with summer monsoonal precipitation covered only 40% of the Mojave Desert ecoregion but contain 88% of the area burned and 95% of the repeat burn area. Classifying historic precipitation for early-century (wet) and mid-century (drought) periods reveals distinct shifts in regime boundaries. Early-century results are similar to current, while the mid-century results show a sizeable reduction in area of regimes with a strong monsoonal component. Such a shift would suggest that fires during the mid-century period would be minimal and anecdotal records confirm this. Predicted precipitation patterns from downscaled global climate models indicate numerous epochs of high winter precipitation, inferring higher fire potential for many multi-decade periods during the next century.

Strong coupling of collection of emitters on hyperbolic meta-material

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Biehs, Svend-Age; Xu, Chenran; Agarwal, Girish S.

2018-04-01

Recently, considerable effort has been devoted to the realization of a strong coupling regime of the radiation matter interaction in the context of an emitter at a meta surface. The strong interaction is well realized in cavity quantum electrodynamics, which also show that strong coupling is much easier to realize using a collection of emitters. Keeping this in mind, we study if emitters on a hyperbolic meta materials can yield a strong coupling regime. We show that strong coupling can be realized for densities of emitters exceeding a critical value. A way to detect strong coupling between emitters and hyperbolic metamaterials is to use the Kretschman-Raether configuration. The strong coupling appears as the splitting of the reflectivity dip. In the weak coupling regime, the dip position shifts. The shift and splitting can be used to sense active molecules at surfaces.

Circum-Mediterranean fire activity and climate changes during the mid Holocene environmental transition (8500-2500 cal yr BP)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vannière, Boris; Power, Mitch J.; Roberts, Neil; Tinner, Willy; Carrión, José; Magny, Michel; Bartlein, Patrick

2010-05-01

In this contribution I will present a synthesis of mid- to late-Holocene fire activity from the Mediterranean basin and explore the linkages among fire, climate variability and seasonality, and people through several climatic and ecological transitions. Regional fire histories were created from 36 radiocarbon-dated sedimentary charcoal records, available from the Global Charcoal Database. During the mid-Holocene "Thermal Maximum", charcoal records from the northern Mediterranean suggest the region was more fire prone while records from the southern Mediterranean indicate a decrease in fire activity associated with wetter-than-present summers. A North-South partition at 40-43°N is apparent in the central and western Mediterranean. In the context of orbitally-induced summer insolation decrease, South Mediterranean wet conditions could be linked to the Afro-Asian summer monsoon which weakened after ca. 8000-6000 cal yr BP. Relatively abrupt changes in fire regime observed at ca. 5500-5000 cal yr BP may be associated to a threshold in this weakening influence of the orbitally-driven Afro-Asian monsoon strength. Charcoal records of past fire activity appear sensitive to both orbitally-forced climate changes and shorter lived excursions which may be related to cold events apparent in the North Atlantic record of ice-rafted debris. These results contradict former notions of gradual aridification of the entire region due to climatic forcing and/or human activities. In contrast, they suggest: 1) Teleconnections between the Mediterranean area and other climatic regions, in particular the North Atlantic and the low-latitude monsoon areas, influenced past fire regimes; 2) Gradual forcing, such as changes in orbital parameters, may have triggered more abrupt shifts in fire regime, either directly or indirectly through these teleconnections.

Fire, humans and landscape. Is there a connection?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valese, Eva; Ascoli, Davide; Conedera, Marco; Held, Alex

2013-04-01

Fire evolved on the earth under the direct influence of climate and the accumulation of burnable biomass at various times and spatial scales. As a result, fire regimes depend not only on climatic and biological factors, but also greatly reflect the cultural background of how people do manage ecosystems and fire. A new awareness among scientists and managers has been rising about the ecological role of fire and the necessity to understand its past natural and cultural dynamics in different ecosystems, in order to preserve present ecosystem functionality and minimize management costs and negative impacts. As a consequence we assisted in the last decades to a general shift from the fire control to the fire management approach, where fire prevention, fire danger rating, fire ecology, fire pre-suppression and suppression strategies are fully integrated in the landscape management. Nowadays, a large number of authors recognize that a total suppression strategy, as the one adopted during last decades, leads to a fire paradox: the more we fight for putting out all fires, the more extreme events occur and cause long term damages. The aim of this review is to provide a state of art about the connection between fire, humans and landscape, along time and space. Negative and positive impacts on ecosystem services and values are put in evidence, as well as their incidence on human aptitude to fire use as to fire suppression. In order to capture a consistent fragment of fire history, palaeofires and related palynological studies are considered. They enable a valuable, even if partial, look at the millenary fire regime. Actual strategies and future directions are described in order to show what are the alternatives for living with fire, since removing completely this disturbance from earth is not a option, nor feasible neither advisable. Examples from the world, in particular from the Alps and the Mediterranean basin, are shown for better illustrating the signature of anthropogenic fire on landscapes.

Prolonged recovery of sea otters from the Exxon Valdez oil spill? A re-examination of the evidence.

PubMed

Garshelis, David L; Johnson, Charles B

2013-06-15

Sea otters (Enhydra lutris) suffered major mortality after the Exxon Valdez oil spill in Prince William Sound, Alaska, 1989. We evaluate the contention that their recovery spanned over two decades. A model based on the otter age-at-death distribution suggested a large, spill-related population sink, but this has never been found, and other model predictions failed to match empirical data. Studies focused on a previously-oiled area where otter numbers (~80) stagnated post-spill; nevertheless, post-spill abundance exceeded the most recent pre-spill count, and population trends paralleled an adjacent, unoiled-lightly-oiled area. Some investigators posited that otters suffered chronic effects by digging up buried oil residues while foraging, but an ecological risk assessment indicated that exposure levels via this pathway were well below thresholds for toxicological effects. Significant confounding factors, including killer whale predation, subsistence harvests, human disturbances, and environmental regime shifts made it impossible to judge recovery at such a small scale. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Radiocarbon analysis of halophilic microbial lipids from an Australian salt lake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bray, P. Sargent; Jones, Claudia M.; Fallon, Stewart J.; Brocks, Jochen J.; George, Simon C.

2012-01-01

Assigning accurate dates to hypersaline sediments opens important terrestrial records of local and regional paleoecologies and paleoclimatology. However, as of yet no conventional method of dating hypersaline systems has been widely adopted. Biomarker, mineralogical, and radiocarbon analyses of sediments and organic extracts from a shallow (13 cm) core from a hypersaline playa, Lake Tyrrell, southeastern Australia, produce a coherent age-depth curve beginning with modern microbial mats and extending to ~ 7500 cal yr BP. These analyses are furthermore used to identify and constrain the timing of the most recent change in hydrological regime at Lake Tyrrell, a shift from a clay deposit to the precipitation of evaporitic sands occurring at some time between ~ 4500 and 7000 yr. These analyses show the potential for widespread dating of hypersaline systems integrating the biomarker approach, reinforce the value of the radiocarbon content of biomarkers in understanding the flow of carbon in modern ecologies, and validate the temporal dimension of data provided by biomarkers when dating late Quaternary sediments.

Model selection and assessment for multi­-species occupancy models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Broms, Kristin M.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Fitzpatrick, Ryan M.

2016-01-01

While multi-species occupancy models (MSOMs) are emerging as a popular method for analyzing biodiversity data, formal checking and validation approaches for this class of models have lagged behind. Concurrent with the rise in application of MSOMs among ecologists, a quiet regime shift is occurring in Bayesian statistics where predictive model comparison approaches are experiencing a resurgence. Unlike single-species occupancy models that use integrated likelihoods, MSOMs are usually couched in a Bayesian framework and contain multiple levels. Standard model checking and selection methods are often unreliable in this setting and there is only limited guidance in the ecological literature for this class of models. We examined several different contemporary Bayesian hierarchical approaches for checking and validating MSOMs and applied these methods to a freshwater aquatic study system in Colorado, USA, to better understand the diversity and distributions of plains fishes. Our findings indicated distinct differences among model selection approaches, with cross-validation techniques performing the best in terms of prediction.

Disturbed island ecology.

PubMed

Whittaker, R J

1995-10-01

The natural occurrence of significant disturbances to the operation of insular ecosystems has tended to be downplayed in the development of island ecological theory. Despite the importance of events such as Hurricane Hugo, which in 1989 affected islands in the Caribbean, islands that are disturbed tend to be viewed as deviants from the `true path' described by equilibrium models. However, particularly with organisms of long generation times, it is questionable whether such models are applicable. This may be as important for wildlife managers to take account of as for theorists. Disturbance regime should be incorporated into island ecological models alongside other ecological factors structuring colonization patterns and turnover.

Water level changes affect carbon turnover and microbial community composition in lake sediments.

PubMed

Weise, Lukas; Ulrich, Andreas; Moreano, Matilde; Gessler, Arthur; Kayler, Zachary E; Steger, Kristin; Zeller, Bernd; Rudolph, Kristin; Knezevic-Jaric, Jelena; Premke, Katrin

2016-05-01

Due to climate change, many lakes in Europe will be subject to higher variability of hydrological characteristics in their littoral zones. These different hydrological regimes might affect the use of allochthonous and autochthonous carbon sources. We used sandy sediment microcosms to examine the effects of different hydrological regimes (wet, desiccating, and wet-desiccation cycles) on carbon turnover. (13)C-labelled particulate organic carbon was used to trace and estimate carbon uptake into bacterial biomass (via phospholipid fatty acids) and respiration. Microbial community changes were monitored by combining DNA- and RNA-based real-time PCR quantification and terminal restriction fragment length polymorphism (T-RFLP) analysis of 16S rRNA. The shifting hydrological regimes in the sediment primarily caused two linked microbial effects: changes in the use of available organic carbon and community composition changes. Drying sediments yielded the highest CO2 emission rates, whereas hydrological shifts increased the uptake of allochthonous organic carbon for respiration. T-RFLP patterns demonstrated that only the most extreme hydrological changes induced a significant shift in the active and total bacterial communities. As current scenarios of climate change predict an increase of drought events, frequent variations of the hydrological regimes of many lake littoral zones in central Europe are anticipated. Based on the results of our study, this phenomenon may increase the intensity and amplitude in rates of allochthonous organic carbon uptake and CO2 emissions. © FEMS 2016.

Water level changes affect carbon turnover and microbial community composition in lake sediments

PubMed Central

Weise, Lukas; Ulrich, Andreas; Moreano, Matilde; Gessler, Arthur; E. Kayler, Zachary; Steger, Kristin; Zeller, Bernd; Rudolph, Kristin; Knezevic-Jaric, Jelena; Premke, Katrin

2016-01-01

Due to climate change, many lakes in Europe will be subject to higher variability of hydrological characteristics in their littoral zones. These different hydrological regimes might affect the use of allochthonous and autochthonous carbon sources. We used sandy sediment microcosms to examine the effects of different hydrological regimes (wet, desiccating, and wet-desiccation cycles) on carbon turnover. 13C-labelled particulate organic carbon was used to trace and estimate carbon uptake into bacterial biomass (via phospholipid fatty acids) and respiration. Microbial community changes were monitored by combining DNA- and RNA-based real-time PCR quantification and terminal restriction fragment length polymorphism (T-RFLP) analysis of 16S rRNA. The shifting hydrological regimes in the sediment primarily caused two linked microbial effects: changes in the use of available organic carbon and community composition changes. Drying sediments yielded the highest CO2 emission rates, whereas hydrological shifts increased the uptake of allochthonous organic carbon for respiration. T-RFLP patterns demonstrated that only the most extreme hydrological changes induced a significant shift in the active and total bacterial communities. As current scenarios of climate change predict an increase of drought events, frequent variations of the hydrological regimes of many lake littoral zones in central Europe are anticipated. Based on the results of our study, this phenomenon may increase the intensity and amplitude in rates of allochthonous organic carbon uptake and CO2 emissions. PMID:26902802

Linking social change and developmental change: shifting pathways of human development.

PubMed

Greenfield, Patricia M

2009-03-01

P. M. Greenfield's new theory of social change and human development aims to show how changing sociodemographic ecologies alter cultural values and learning environments and thereby shift developmental pathways. Worldwide sociodemographic trends include movement from rural residence, informal education at home, subsistence economy, and low-technology environments to urban residence, formal schooling, commerce, and high-technology environments. The former ecology is summarized by the German term Gemeinschaft ("community") and the latter by the German term Gesellschaft ("society"; Tönnies, 1887/1957). A review of empirical research demonstrates that, through adaptive processes, movement of any ecological variable in a Gesellschaft direction shifts cultural values in an individualistic direction and developmental pathways toward more independent social behavior and more abstract cognition--to give a few examples of the myriad behaviors that respond to these sociodemographic changes. In contrast, the (much less frequent) movement of any ecological variable in a Gemeinschaft direction is predicted to move cultural values and developmental pathways in the opposite direction. In conclusion, sociocultural environments are not static either in the developed or the developing world and therefore must be treated dynamically in developmental research.

Transitions in Arctic ecosystems: Ecological implications of a changing hydrological regime

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wrona, Frederick J.; Johansson, Margareta; Culp, Joseph M.; Jenkins, Alan; Mârd, Johanna; Myers-Smith, Isla H.; Prowse, Terry D.; Vincent, Warwick F.; Wookey, Philip A.

2016-03-01

Numerous international scientific assessments and related articles have, during the last decade, described the observed and potential impacts of climate change as well as other related environmental stressors on Arctic ecosystems. There is increasing recognition that observed and projected changes in freshwater sources, fluxes, and storage will have profound implications for the physical, biogeochemical, biological, and ecological processes and properties of Arctic terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems. However, a significant level of uncertainty remains in relation to forecasting the impacts of an intensified hydrological regime and related cryospheric change on ecosystem structure and function. As the terrestrial and freshwater ecology component of the Arctic Freshwater Synthesis, we review these uncertainties and recommend enhanced coordinated circumpolar research and monitoring efforts to improve quantification and prediction of how an altered hydrological regime influences local, regional, and circumpolar-level responses in terrestrial and freshwater systems. Specifically, we evaluate (i) changes in ecosystem productivity; (ii) alterations in ecosystem-level biogeochemical cycling and chemical transport; (iii) altered landscapes, successional trajectories, and creation of new habitats; (iv) altered seasonality and phenological mismatches; and (v) gains or losses of species and associated trophic interactions. We emphasize the need for developing a process-based understanding of interecosystem interactions, along with improved predictive models. We recommend enhanced use of the catchment scale as an integrated unit of study, thereby more explicitly considering the physical, chemical, and ecological processes and fluxes across a full freshwater continuum in a geographic region and spatial range of hydroecological units (e.g., stream-pond-lake-river-near shore marine environments).

Distinguishing linear, nonlinear, transient and persistent vegetation dynamics to characterize empirical signatures of ecological resilience

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Background/Question/Methods To characterize and interpret ecological resilience and state change is a fundamental question in ecology. In the same ecosystem, across different communities, one can encounter relative stability, abrupt directional shifts, transient reversible change, as well as nondire...

Climate-driven range shifts of the king penguin in a fragmented ecosystem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cristofari, Robin; Liu, Xiaoming; Bonadonna, Francesco; Cherel, Yves; Pistorius, Pierre; Le Maho, Yvon; Raybaud, Virginie; Stenseth, Nils Christian; Le Bohec, Céline; Trucchi, Emiliano

2018-03-01

Range shift is the primary short-term species response to rapid climate change, but it is often hampered by natural or anthropogenic habitat fragmentation. Different critical areas of a species' niche may be exposed to heterogeneous environmental changes and modelling species response under such complex spatial and ecological scenarios presents well-known challenges. Here, we use a biophysical ecological niche model validated through population genomics and palaeodemography to reconstruct past range shifts and identify future vulnerable areas and potential refugia of the king penguin in the Southern Ocean. Integrating genomic and demographic data at the whole-species level with specific biophysical constraints, we present a refined framework for predicting the effect of climate change on species relying on spatially and ecologically distinct areas to complete their life cycle (for example, migratory animals, marine pelagic organisms and central-place foragers) and, in general, on species living in fragmented ecosystems.

Mid- to late Holocene climate-driven regime shifts inferred from diatom, ostracod and stable isotope records from Lake Son Kol (Central Tian Shan, Kyrgyzstan)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schwarz, Anja; Turner, Falko; Lauterbach, Stefan; Plessen, Birgit; Krahn, Kim J.; Glodniok, Sven; Mischke, Steffen; Stebich, Martina; Witt, Roman; Mingram, Jens; Schwalb, Antje

2017-12-01

Arid Central Asia represents a key region for understanding climate variability and interactions in the Northern Hemisphere. Patterns and mechanisms of Holocene climate change in arid Central Asia are, however, only partially understood. Multi-proxy data combining diatom, ostracod, sedimentological, geochemical and stable isotope analyses from a ca. 6000-year-old lake sediment core from Son Kol (Central Kyrgyzstan) show distinct and repeated changes in species assemblages. Diatom- and ostracod-inferred conductivity shifts between meso-euhaline and freshwater conditions suggest water balance and regime shifts. Organism-derived data are corroborated by stable isotope, mineralogical and geochemical records, underlining that Son Kol was affected by strong lake level fluctuations of several meters. The δ13Ccarb/δ18Ocarb correlation shows repeated switchovers from a closed to an open lake system. From 6000 to 3800 and 3250 to 1950 cal. yr BP, Son Kol was a closed basin lake with higher conductivities, increased nutrient availability and a water level located below the modern outflow. Son Kol became again a hydrologically open lake at 3800 and 1950 cal. yr BP. Comparisons to other local and regional paleoclimate records indicate that these regime shifts were largely controlled by changing intensity and position of the Westerlies and the Siberian Anticyclone that triggered changes in the amount of winter precipitation. A strong influence of the Westerlies ca. 5000-4400, 3800-3250 and since 1950 cal. yr BP enhanced the amount of precipitation during spring, autumn and winter, whereas cold and dry winters prevailed during phases with a strong Siberian Anticyclone and southward shifted Westerlies at ca. 6000-5000, 4400-3800 and 3250-1950 cal. yr BP. Similarities between variations in winter precipitation at Son Kol and records of the predominant NAO-mode further suggest a teleconnection between wet (dry) winter climate in Central Asia and a positive (negative) NAO-mode. Thus, this study identifies climate fluctuations as the main driver for hydrological regime shifts in Son Kol controlling physicochemical conditions and consequently causing abrupt species assemblage changes. This emphasizes the importance of multi-proxy approaches to identify triggers, thresholds and cascades of aquatic ecosystem transformations.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stevens, Mark J.; Saleh, Omar A.

We calculated the force-extension curves for a flexible polyelectrolyte chain with varying charge separations by performing Monte Carlo simulations of a 5000 bead chain using a screened Coulomb interaction. At all charge separations, the force-extension curves exhibit a Pincus-like scaling regime at intermediate forces and a logarithmic regime at large forces. As the charge separation increases, the Pincus regime shifts to a larger range of forces and the logarithmic regime starts are larger forces. We also found that force-extension curve for the corresponding neutral chain has a logarithmic regime. Decreasing the diameter of bead in the neutral chain simulations removedmore » the logarithmic regime, and the force-extension curve tends to the freely jointed chain limit. In conclusion, this result shows that only excluded volume is required for the high force logarithmic regime to occur.« less

Exploiting delayed transitions to sustain semiarid ecosystems after catastrophic shifts.

PubMed

Vidiella, Blai; Sardanyés, Josep; Solé, Ricard

2018-06-01

Semiarid ecosystems (including arid, semiarid and dry-subhumid ecosystems) span more than 40% of extant habitats and contain a similar percentage of the human population. Theoretical models and palaeoclimatic data predict a grim future, with rapid shifts towards a desert state, with accelerated diversity losses and ecological collapses. These shifts are a consequence of the special nonlinearities resulting from ecological facilitation. Here, we investigate a simple model of semiarid ecosystems identifying the so-called ghost, which appears after a catastrophic transition from a vegetated to a desert state once a critical rate of soil degradation is overcome. The ghost involves a slowdown of transients towards the desert state, making the ecosystem seem stable even though vegetation extinction is inevitable. We use this model to show how to exploit the ecological ghosts to avoid collapse. Doing so involves the restoration of small fractions of desert areas with vegetation capable of maintaining a stable community once the catastrophic shift condition has been achieved. This intervention method is successfully tested under the presence of demographic stochastic fluctuations. © 2018 The Author(s).

Beyond urban legends: an emerging framework of urban ecology, as illustrated by the Baltimore Ecosystem Study

Treesearch

Steward T.A. Pickett; Mary L. Cadenasso; J. Morgan Grove; Peter M. Groffman; Lawrence E. Band; Christopher G. Boone; William R., Jr. Burch; Susan B. Grimmond; John Hom; Jennifer C. Jenkins; Neely L. Law; Charles H. Nilon; Richard V. Pouyat; Katalin Szlavecz; Paige S. Warren; Matthew A. Wilson

2008-01-01

The emerging discipline of urban ecology is shifting focus from ecological processes embedded within cities to integrative studies of large urban areas as biophysical-social complexes. Yet this discipline lacks a theory. Results from the Baltimore Ecosystem Study, part of the Long Term Ecological Research Network, expose new assumptions and test existing assumptions...

Temporal trends in mammal responses to fire reveals the complex effects of fire regime attributes.

PubMed

Lindenmayer, David B; Blanchard, Wade; MacGregor, Christopher; Barton, Philip; Banks, Sam C; Crane, Mason; Michael, Damian; Okada, Sachiko; Berry, Laurence; Florance, Daniel; Gill, Malcolm

2016-03-01

Fire is a major ecological process in many ecosystems worldwide. We sought to identify which attributes of fire regimes affect temporal change in the presence and abundance of Australian native mammals. Our detailed study was underpinned by time series data on 11 mammal species at 97 long-term sites in southeastern Australia between 2003 and 2013. We explored how temporal aspects of fire regimes influenced the presence and conditional abundance of species. The key fire regime components examined were: (1) severity of a major fire in 2003, (2) interval between the last major fire (2003) and the fire prior to that, and (3) number of past fires. Our long-term data set enabled quantification of the interactions between survey year and each fire regime variable: an ecological relationship missing from temporally restricted studies. We found no evidence of any appreciable departures from the assumption of independence of the sites. Multiple aspects of fire regimes influenced temporal variation in the presence and abundance of mammals. The best models indicated that six of the 11 species responded to two or more fire regime variables, with two species influenced by all three fire regime attributes. Almost all species responded to time since fire, either as an interaction with survey year or as a main effect. Fire severity or its interaction with survey year was important for most terrestrial rodents. The number of fires at a site was significant for terrestrial rodents and several other species. Our findings contain evidence of the effects on native mammals of heterogeneity in fire regimes. Temporal response patterns of mammal species were influenced by multiple fire regime attributes, often in conjunction with survey year. This underscores the critical importance of long-term studies of biota that are coupled with data sets characterized by carefully documented fire history, severity, and frequency. Long-term studies are essential to predict animal responses to fires and guide management of when and where (prescribed) fire or, conversely, long-unburned vegetation is needed. The complexity of observed responses highlights the need for large reserves in which patterns of heterogeneity in fire regimes can be sustained in space and over time.

Analysis and simulation of propagule dispersal and salinity intrusion from storm surge on the movement of a marsh–mangrove ecotone in South Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jiang, Jiang; DeAngelis, Donald L.; Anderson, Gordon H.; Smith, Thomas J.

2014-01-01

Coastal mangrove–freshwater marsh ecotones of the Everglades represent transitions between marine salt-tolerant halophytic and freshwater salt-intolerant glycophytic communities. It is hypothesized here that a self-reinforcing feedback, termed a “vegetation switch,” between vegetation and soil salinity, helps maintain the sharp mangrove–marsh ecotone. A general theoretical implication of the switch mechanism is that the ecotone will be stable to small disturbances but vulnerable to rapid regime shifts from large disturbances, such as storm surges, which could cause large spatial displacements of the ecotone. We develop a simulation model to describe the vegetation switch mechanism. The model couples vegetation dynamics and hydrologic processes. The key factors in the model are the amount of salt-water intrusion into the freshwater wetland and the passive transport of mangrove (e.g., Rhizophora mangle) viviparous seeds or propagules. Results from the model simulations indicate that a regime shift from freshwater marsh to mangroves is sensitive to the duration of soil salinization through storm surge overwash and to the density of mangrove propagules or seedlings transported into the marsh. We parameterized our model with empirical hydrologic data collected from the period 2000–2010 at one mangrove–marsh ecotone location in southwestern Florida to forecast possible long-term effects of Hurricane Wilma (24 October 2005). The model indicated that the effects of that storm surge were too weak to trigger a regime shift at the sites we studied, 50 km south of the Hurricane Wilma eyewall, but simulations with more severe artificial disturbances were capable of causing substantial regime shifts.

Adiabatic perturbation theory for atoms and molecules in the low-frequency regime

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martiskainen, Hanna; Moiseyev, Nimrod

2017-12-01

There is an increasing interest in the photoinduced dynamics in the low frequency, ω, regime. The multiphoton absorptions by molecules in strong laser fields depend on the polarization of the laser and on the molecular structure. The unique properties of the interaction of atoms and molecules with lasers in the low-frequency regime imply new concepts and directions in strong-field light-matter interactions. Here we represent a perturbational approach for the calculations of the quasi-energy spectrum in the low-frequency regime, which avoids the construction of the Floquet operator with extremely large number of Floquet channels. The zero-order Hamiltonian in our perturbational approach is the adiabatic Hamiltonian where the atoms/molecules are exposed to a dc electric field rather than to ac-field. This is in the spirit of the first step in the Corkum three-step model. The second-order perturbation correction terms are obtained when i ℏ ω ∂/∂ τ serves as a perturbation and τ is a dimensionless variable. The second-order adiabatic perturbation scheme is found to be an excellent approach for calculating the ac-field Floquet solutions in our test case studies of a simple one-dimensional time-periodic model Hamiltonian. It is straightforward to implement the perturbation approach presented here for calculating atomic and molecular energy shifts (positions) due to the interaction with low-frequency ac-fields using high-level electronic structure methods. This is enabled since standard quantum chemistry packages allow the calculations of atomic and molecular energy shifts due to the interaction with dc-fields. In addition to the shift of the energy positions, the energy widths (inverse lifetimes) can be obtained at the same level of theory. These energy shifts are functions of the laser parameters (low frequency, intensity, and polarization).

Precipitation Regime Shift Enhanced the Rain Pulse Effect on Soil Respiration in a Semi-Arid Steppe

PubMed Central

Yan, Liming; Chen, Shiping; Xia, Jianyang; Luo, Yiqi

2014-01-01

The effect of resource pulses, such as rainfall events, on soil respiration plays an important role in controlling grassland carbon balance, but how shifts in long-term precipitation regime regulate rain pulse effect on soil respiration is still unclear. We first quantified the influence of rainfall event on soil respiration based on a two-year (2006 and 2009) continuously measured soil respiration data set in a temperate steppe in northern China. In 2006 and 2009, soil carbon release induced by rainfall events contributed about 44.5% (83.3 g C m−2) and 39.6% (61.7 g C m−2) to the growing-season total soil respiration, respectively. The pulse effect of rainfall event on soil respiration can be accurately predicted by a water status index (WSI), which is the product of rainfall event size and the ratio between antecedent soil temperature to moisture at the depth of 10 cm (r 2 = 0.92, P<0.001) through the growing season. It indicates the pulse effect can be enhanced by not only larger individual rainfall event, but also higher soil temperature/moisture ratio which is usually associated with longer dry spells. We then analyzed a long-term (1953–2009) precipitation record in the experimental area. We found both the extreme heavy rainfall events (>40 mm per event) and the long dry-spells (>5 days) during the growing seasons increased from 1953–2009. It suggests the shift in precipitation regime has increased the contribution of rain pulse effect to growing-season total soil respiration in this region. These findings highlight the importance of incorporating precipitation regime shift and its impacts on the rain pulse effect into the future predictions of grassland carbon cycle under climate change. PMID:25093573

Precipitation regime shift enhanced the rain pulse effect on soil respiration in a semi-arid steppe.

PubMed

Yan, Liming; Chen, Shiping; Xia, Jianyang; Luo, Yiqi

2014-01-01

The effect of resource pulses, such as rainfall events, on soil respiration plays an important role in controlling grassland carbon balance, but how shifts in long-term precipitation regime regulate rain pulse effect on soil respiration is still unclear. We first quantified the influence of rainfall event on soil respiration based on a two-year (2006 and 2009) continuously measured soil respiration data set in a temperate steppe in northern China. In 2006 and 2009, soil carbon release induced by rainfall events contributed about 44.5% (83.3 g C m(-2)) and 39.6% (61.7 g C m(-2)) to the growing-season total soil respiration, respectively. The pulse effect of rainfall event on soil respiration can be accurately predicted by a water status index (WSI), which is the product of rainfall event size and the ratio between antecedent soil temperature to moisture at the depth of 10 cm (r2 = 0.92, P<0.001) through the growing season. It indicates the pulse effect can be enhanced by not only larger individual rainfall event, but also higher soil temperature/moisture ratio which is usually associated with longer dry spells. We then analyzed a long-term (1953-2009) precipitation record in the experimental area. We found both the extreme heavy rainfall events (>40 mm per event) and the long dry-spells (>5 days) during the growing seasons increased from 1953-2009. It suggests the shift in precipitation regime has increased the contribution of rain pulse effect to growing-season total soil respiration in this region. These findings highlight the importance of incorporating precipitation regime shift and its impacts on the rain pulse effect into the future predictions of grassland carbon cycle under climate change.

Oak decline in the Boston Mountains, Arkansas, USA: Spatial and temporal patterns under two fire regimes

Treesearch

Martin A. Spetich; Hong S. He

2008-01-01

A spatially explicit forest succession and disturbance model is used to delineate the extent and dispersion of oak decline under two fire regimes over a 150-year period. The objectives of this study are to delineate potential current and future oak decline areas using species composition and age structure data in combination with ecological land types, and to...

What constitutes a natural fire regime? Insight from the ecology and distribution of coniferous forest birds in North America

Treesearch

Richard L. Hutto; Courtney J. Conway; Victoria A. Saab; Jeffrey R. Walters

2008-01-01

Bird species that specialize in the use of burned forest conditions can provide insight into the prehistoric fire regimes associated with the forest types that they have occupied over evolutionary time. The nature of their adaptations reflects the specific post-fire conditions that occurred prior to the unnatural influence of humans after European settlement....

The importance of maintaining carnivores in wildlands (La Importancia de mantener carnivoros en Areas silvestres)

Treesearch

Dave Foreman

2006-01-01

I'd like to talk a little bit about another important disturbance regime in much of the western United States and Mexico. We've talked some about the importance of fire. Another one is the importance of natural hydrological cycles. But an often-overlooked important ecological disturbance regime is predation. Research around the world and in many habitats has...

Mobility and transport of mercury and methylmercury in peat as a function of changes in water table regime and plant functional groups

Treesearch

Kristine M. Haynes; Evan S. Kane; Lynette Potvin; Erik A. Lilleskov; Randy Kolka; Carl P. J. Mitchell

2017-01-01

Climate change is likely to significantly affect the hydrology, ecology, and ecosystem function of peatlands, with potentially important but unclear impacts on mercury mobility within and transport from peatlands. Using a full-factorial mesocosm approach, we investigated the potential impacts on mercury mobility of water table regime changes (high and low) and...

Ecological foundations for fire management in North American forest and shrubland ecosystems

Treesearch

J.E. Keeley; G.H. Aplet; N.L. Christensen; S.G. Conard; E.A. Johnson; P.N. Omi; D.L. Peterson; T.W. Swetnam

2009-01-01

This synthesis provides an ecological foundation for management of the diverse ecosystems and fire regimes of North America based on scientific principles of fire interactions with vegetation, fuels, and biophysical processes. Although a large amount of scientific data on fire exists, most of those data have been collected at small spatial and temporal scales. Thus, it...

A novel approach to analysing the regimes of temporary streams in relation to their controls on the composition and structure of aquatic biota

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gallart, F.; Prat, N.; García-Roger, E. M.; Latron, J.; Rieradevall, M.; Llorens, P.; Barberá, G. G.; Brito, D.; De Girolamo, A. M.; Lo Porto, A.; Buffagni, A.; Erba, S.; Neves, R.; Nikolaidis, N. P.; Perrin, J. L.; Querner, E. P.; Quiñonero, J. M.; Tournoud, M. G.; Tzoraki, O.; Skoulikidis, N.; Gómez, R.; Sánchez-Montoya, M. M.; Froebrich, J.

2012-09-01

Temporary streams are those water courses that undergo the recurrent cessation of flow or the complete drying of their channel. The structure and composition of biological communities in temporary stream reaches are strongly dependent on the temporal changes of the aquatic habitats determined by the hydrological conditions. Therefore, the structural and functional characteristics of aquatic fauna to assess the ecological quality of a temporary stream reach cannot be used without taking into account the controls imposed by the hydrological regime. This paper develops methods for analysing temporary streams' aquatic regimes, based on the definition of six aquatic states that summarize the transient sets of mesohabitats occurring on a given reach at a particular moment, depending on the hydrological conditions: Hyperrheic, Eurheic, Oligorheic, Arheic, Hyporheic and Edaphic. When the hydrological conditions lead to a change in the aquatic state, the structure and composition of the aquatic community changes according to the new set of available habitats. We used the water discharge records from gauging stations or simulations with rainfall-runoff models to infer the temporal patterns of occurrence of these states in the Aquatic States Frequency Graph we developed. The visual analysis of this graph is complemented by the development of two metrics which describe the permanence of flow and the seasonal predictability of zero flow periods. Finally, a classification of temporary streams in four aquatic regimes in terms of their influence over the development of aquatic life is updated from the existing classifications, with stream aquatic regimes defined as Permanent, Temporary-pools, Temporary-dry and Episodic. While aquatic regimes describe the long-term overall variability of the hydrological conditions of the river section and have been used for many years by hydrologists and ecologists, aquatic states describe the availability of mesohabitats in given periods that determine the presence of different biotic assemblages. This novel concept links hydrological and ecological conditions in a unique way. All these methods were implemented with data from eight temporary streams around the Mediterranean within the MIRAGE project. Their application was a precondition to assessing the ecological quality of these streams.

Transcriptomics of environmental acclimatization and survival in wild adult Pacific sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) during spawning migration.

PubMed

Evans, Tyler G; Hammill, Edd; Kaukinen, Karia; Schulze, Angela D; Patterson, David A; English, Karl K; Curtis, Janelle M R; Miller, Kristina M

2011-11-01

Environmental shifts accompanying salmon spawning migrations from ocean feeding grounds to natal freshwater streams can be severe, with the underlying stress often cited as a cause of increased mortality. Here, a salmonid microarray was used to characterize changes in gene expression occurring between ocean and river habitats in gill and liver tissues of wild migrating sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka Walbaum) returning to spawn in the Fraser River, British Columbia, Canada. Expression profiles indicate that the transcriptome of migrating salmon is strongly affected by shifting abiotic and biotic conditions encountered along migration routes. Conspicuous shifts in gene expression associated with changing salinity, temperature, pathogen exposure and dissolved oxygen indicate that these environmental variables most strongly impact physiology during spawning migrations. Notably, transcriptional changes related to osmoregulation were largely preparatory and occurred well before salmon encountered freshwater. In the river environment, differential expression of genes linked with elevated temperatures indicated that thermal regimes within the Fraser River are approaching tolerance limits for adult salmon. To empirically correlate gene expression with survival, biopsy sampling of gill tissue and transcriptomic profiling were combined with telemetry. Many genes correlated with environmental variables were differentially expressed between premature mortalities and successful migrants. Parametric survival analyses demonstrated a broad-scale transcriptional regulator, cofactor required for Sp1 transcriptional activation (CRSP), to be significantly predictive of survival. As the environmental characteristics of salmon habitats continue to change, establishing how current environmental conditions influence salmon physiology under natural conditions is critical to conserving this ecologically and economically important fish species. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Fisheries regulatory regimes and resilience to climate change.

PubMed

Ojea, Elena; Pearlman, Isaac; Gaines, Steven D; Lester, Sarah E

2017-05-01

Climate change is already producing ecological, social, and economic impacts on fisheries, and these effects are expected to increase in frequency and magnitude in the future. Fisheries governance and regulations can alter socio-ecological resilience to climate change impacts via harvest control rules and incentives driving fisher behavior, yet there are no syntheses or conceptual frameworks for examining how institutions and their regulatory approaches can alter fisheries resilience to climate change. We identify nine key climate resilience criteria for fisheries socio-ecological systems (SES), defining resilience as the ability of the coupled system of interacting social and ecological components (i.e., the SES) to absorb change while avoiding transformation into a different undesirable state. We then evaluate the capacity of four fisheries regulatory systems that vary in their degree of property rights, including open access, limited entry, and two types of rights-based management, to increase or inhibit resilience. Our exploratory assessment of evidence in the literature suggests that these regulatory regimes vary widely in their ability to promote resilient fisheries, with rights-based approaches appearing to offer more resilience benefits in many cases, but detailed characteristics of the regulatory instruments are fundamental.

Educating Ecological Citizens of "The Blue Planet"

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

MacPherson, Seonaigh

2005-01-01

This paper explores the implications of a renewed model of citizenship and citizenship education developed on the principles of ecology and ecological interdependence. By reframing our community from a human polity to a biotic community, the scope of our citizenship responsibilities shift. While expanding to encompass a global context, this new…

Ecological limit functions relating fish community response to hydrologic departures of the ecological flow regime in the Tennessee River basin, United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Knight, Rodney R.; Murphy, Jennifer C.; Wolfe, William J.; Saylor, Charles F.; Wales, Amy K.

2014-01-01

Ecological limit functions relating streamflow and aquatic ecosystems remain elusive despite decades of research. We investigated functional relationships between species richness and changes in streamflow characteristics at 662 fish sampling sites in the Tennessee River basin. Our approach included the following: (1) a brief summary of relevant literature on functional relations between fish and streamflow, (2) the development of ecological limit functions that describe the strongest discernible relationships between fish species richness and streamflow characteristics, (3) the evaluation of proposed definitions of hydrologic reference conditions, and (4) an investigation of the internal structures of wedge-shaped distributions underlying ecological limit functions.Twenty-one ecological limit functions were developed across three ecoregions that relate the species richness of 11 fish groups and departures from hydrologic reference conditions using multivariate and quantile regression methods. Each negatively sloped function is described using up to four streamflow characteristics expressed in terms of cumulative departure from hydrologic reference conditions. Negative slopes indicate increased departure results in decreased species richness.Sites with the highest measured fish species richness generally had near-reference hydrologic conditions for a given ecoregion. Hydrology did not generally differ between sites with the highest and lowest fish species richness, indicating that other environmental factors likely limit species richness at sites with reference hydrology.Use of ecological limit functions to make decisions regarding proposed hydrologic regime changes, although commonly presented as a management tool, is not as straightforward or informative as often assumed. We contend that statistical evaluation of the internal wedge structure below limit functions may provide a probabilistic understanding of how aquatic ecology is influenced by altered hydrology and may serve as the basis for evaluating the potential effect of proposed hydrologic changes.

Design and test of an object-oriented GIS to map plant species in the Southern Rockies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Morain, Stanley A.; Neville, Paul R. H.; Budge, Thomas K.; Morrison, Susan C.; Helfrich, Donald A.; Fruit, Sarah

1993-01-01

Elevational and latitudinal shifts occur in the flora of the Rocky Mountains due to long term climate change. In order to specify which species are successfully migrating with these changes, and which are not, an object-oriented, image-based geographic information system (GIS) is being created to animate evolving ecological regimes of temperature and precipitation. Research at the Earth Data Analysis Center (EDAC) is developing a landscape model that includes the spatial, spectral and temporal domains. It is designed to visualize migratory changes in the Rocky Mountain flora, and to specify future community compositions. The object-oriented database will eventually tag each of the nearly 6000 species with a unique hue, intensity, and saturation value, so their movements can be individually traced. An associated GIS includes environmental parameters that control the distribution of each species in the landscape, and satellite imagery is used to help visualize the terrain. Polygons for the GIS are delineated as landform facets that are static in ecological time. The model manages these facets as a triangular irregular net (TIN), and their analysis assesses the gradual progression of species as they migrate through the TIN. Using an appropriate climate change model, the goal will be to stop the modeling process to assess both the rate and direction of species' change and to specify the changing community composition of each landscape facet.

Hydro-power production and fish habitat suitability: Assessing impact and effectiveness of ecological flows at regional scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ceola, Serena; Pugliese, Alessio; Ventura, Matteo; Galeati, Giorgio; Montanari, Alberto; Castellarin, Attilio

2018-06-01

Anthropogenic activities along streams and rivers may be of major concern for fluvial ecosystems, e.g. abstraction and impoundment of surface water resources may profoundly alter natural streamflow regimes. An established approach aimed at preserving the behavior and distribution of fluvial species relies on the definition of ecological flows (e-flows) downstream of dams and diversion structures. E-flow prescriptions are usually set by basin authorities at regional scale, often without a proper assessment of their impact and effectiveness. On the contrary, we argue that e-flows should be identified on the basis of (i) regional and (ii) quantitative assessments. We focus on central Italy and evaluate the effects on habitat suitability of two near-threatened fish species (i.e. Barbel and Chub) and an existing hydro-power network when shifting from the current time-invariant e-flow policy to a tighter and seasonally-varying soon-to-be-enforced one. Our example clearly shows that: (a) quantitative regional scale assessments are viable even when streamflow observations are entirely missing at study sites; (b) aprioristic e-flows policies may impose releases that exceed natural streamflows for significantly long time intervals (weeks, or months); (c) unduly tightening e-flow policies may heavily impact regional hydro-power productivity (15% and 42% losses on annual and seasonal basis, respectively), yet resulting in either marginal or negligible improvements of fluvial ecosystem.

Teleconnection, Regime Shift, and Predictability of Climate Extremes: A Case Study for the Russian Heat Wave and Pakistan Flood in Summer 2010

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, W. K.; Reale, O.; Kim, K.

2011-01-01

In this talk, we present observational evidence showing that the two major extremes events of the summer of 2010, i.e., the Russian heat wave and the Pakistan flood were physically connected. We find that the Pakistan flood was contributed by a series of unusually heavy rain events over the upper Indus River Basin in July-August. The rainfall regimes shifted from an episodic heavy rain regime in mid-to-late July to a steady heavy rain regime in August. An atmospheric Rossby wave associated with the development of the Russian heat wave was instrumental in spurring the episodic rain events , drawing moisture from the Bay of Bengal and the northern Arabian Sea. The steady rain regime was maintained primarily by monsoon moisture surges from the deep tropics. From experiments with the GEOS-5 forecast system, we assess the predictability of the heavy rain events associated with the Pakistan flood. Preliminary results indicate that there are significantly higher skills in the rainfall forecasts during the episodic heavy rain events in July, compared to the steady rain period in early to mid-August. The change in rainfall predictability may be related to scale interactions between the extratropics and the tropics resulting in a modulation of rainfall predictability by the circulation regimes.

Rainbow trout versus brook trout biomass and production under varied climate regimes in small southern Appalachian streams

Treesearch

Bonnie. J.E. Myers; C. Andrew Dolloff; Andrew L. Rypel

2014-01-01

Many Appalachian streams historically dominated by Brook Trout Salvelinus fontinalis have experienced shifts towards fish communities dominated by Rainbow Trout Onchorhynchus mykiss. We used empirical estimates of biomass and secondary production of trout conspecifics to evaluate species success under varied thermal regimes. Trout...

Cross-scale interactions drive ecosystem responses to precipitation in the Chihuahuan Desert

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Regime shifts from grass- to shrub-dominated states are widespread in arid and semiarid regions globally. These patterns of grass production and shifts to shrub dominance are spatially variable and correlate weakly with precipitation, suggesting that processes at different spatial and temporal scale...

Preliminary assessment of Eflows on Lucanian Rivers through IHA implementation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Greco, Michele; Martino, Giovanni

2016-04-01

According to the WFD, the ecological flow (Eflow) is assumed to be the hydrological regime consistent with the achievement of the environmental objectives of "good quality status" in natural surface water bodies. As well known, the hydrological regime of natural flow plays a primary and crucial role influencing the physical conditions of habitats, which in turn determines the biotic composition and sustainability of aquatic ecosystems. Furthermore, the simple assumption to supply a minimum instream during dry periods is not enough anymore in order to protect the river environment. The recent hydro-ecological knowledge provides that all flow components must be included as operational targets for water quantitative management from base flows (including low flows) to high and flood regimes in terms of magnitude, frequency, duration, timing and rate of change. Several conceptual and numerical codes have been developed and applied on different case studies in order to define common tools to be implemented for the Eflow assessment. In such a frame, the work deals with the application of the Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration methodology (IHA by TNC) to main Lucanian rivers to assess the ecological flow to be assumed in each monitoring cross section. The analyses have been carried on monthly discharge data derived through a simple rainfall-runoff applied at the basin scale and based on the precipitation measurements obtained by the regional rainfall gauge stations.

Ecological differentiation of diploid and polyploid cytotypes of Senecio carniolicus sensu lato (Asteraceae) is stronger in areas of sympatry.

PubMed

Sonnleitner, Michaela; Hülber, Karl; Flatscher, Ruth; Escobar García, Pedro; Winkler, Manuela; Suda, Jan; Schönswetter, Peter; Schneeweiss, Gerald M

2016-02-01

Ecological differentiation is recognized as an important factor for polyploid speciation, but little is known regarding whether the ecological niches of cytotypes differ between areas of sympatry and areas where single cytotypes occur (i.e. niche displacement). Ecological niches of four groups of Senecio carniolicus sensu lato (s.l.) (western and eastern diploid lineages, tetraploids and hexaploids) were characterized via Landolt indicator values of the accompanying vascular plant species and tested using multivariate and univariate statistics. The four groups of S. carniolicus s.l. were ecologically differentiated mainly with respect to temperature, light and soil (humus content, nutrients, moisture variability). Niche breadths did not differ significantly. In areas of sympatry hexaploids shifted towards sites with higher temperature, less light and higher soil humus content as compared with homoploid sites, whereas diploids and tetraploids shifted in the opposite direction. In heteroploid sites of tetraploids and the western diploid lineage the latter shifted towards sites with lower humus content but higher aeration. Niche displacement can facilitate the formation of stable contact zones upon secondary contact of polyploids and their lower-ploid ancestors and/or lead to convergence of the cytotypes' niches after they have attained non-overlapping ranges. Niche displacement is essential for understanding ecological consequences of polyploidy. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Annals of Botany Company. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

DOPPLER SIGNATURES OF THE ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION ON HOT JUPITERS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Showman, Adam P.; Lewis, Nikole K.; Fortney, Jonathan J.

2013-01-01

The meteorology of hot Jupiters has been characterized primarily with thermal measurements, but recent observations suggest the possibility of directly detecting the winds by observing the Doppler shift of spectral lines seen during transit. Motivated by these observations, we show how Doppler measurements can place powerful constraints on the meteorology. We show that the atmospheric circulation-and Doppler signature-of hot Jupiters splits into two regimes. Under weak stellar insolation, the day-night thermal forcing generates fast zonal jet streams from the interaction of atmospheric waves with the mean flow. In this regime, air along the terminator (as seen during transit) flows towardmore » Earth in some regions and away from Earth in others, leading to a Doppler signature exhibiting superposed blueshifted and redshifted components. Under intense stellar insolation, however, the strong thermal forcing damps these planetary-scale waves, inhibiting their ability to generate jets. Strong frictional drag likewise damps these waves and inhibits jet formation. As a result, this second regime exhibits a circulation dominated by high-altitude, day-to-night airflow, leading to a predominantly blueshifted Doppler signature during transit. We present state-of-the-art circulation models including non-gray radiative transfer to quantify this regime shift and the resulting Doppler signatures; these models suggest that cool planets like GJ 436b lie in the first regime, HD 189733b is transitional, while planets hotter than HD 209458b lie in the second regime. Moreover, we show how the amplitude of the Doppler shifts constrains the strength of frictional drag in the upper atmospheres of hot Jupiters. If due to winds, the {approx}2 km s{sup -1} blueshift inferred on HD 209458b may require drag time constants as short as 10{sup 4}-10{sup 6} s, possibly the result of Lorentz-force braking on this planet's hot dayside.« less

Ecological Impacts of Reverse Speciation in Threespine Stickleback.

PubMed

Rudman, Seth M; Schluter, Dolph

2016-02-22

Young species are highly prone to extinction via increased gene flow after human-caused environmental changes. This mechanism of biodiversity loss, often termed reverse speciation or introgressive extinction, is of exceptional interest because the parent species are typically highly differentiated ecologically. Reverse speciation events are potentially powerful case studies for the role of evolution in driving ecological changes, as the phenotypic shifts associated with introgressive extinction can be large and they occur over particularly short timescales. Furthermore, reverse speciation can lead to novel phenotypes, which may in turn produce novel ecological effects. Here we investigate the ecological shift associated with reverse speciation in threespine stickleback fish using a field study and a replicated experiment. We find that an instance of introgressive extinction had cascading ecological consequences that altered the abundance of both aquatic prey and the pupating aquatic insects that emerged into the terrestrial ecosystem. The community and ecosystem impacts of reverse speciation were novel, and yet they were also predictable based on ecological and morphological considerations. The study suggests that knowledge about the community ecology and changes in functional morphology of a dominant species may lead to some predictive power for the ecological effects of evolutionary change. Moreover, the rapid nature and resultant ecological impacts associated with reverse speciation demonstrates the interplay between biodiversity, evolutionary change, and ecosystem function. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Emergence, institutionalization and renewal: Rhythms of adaptive governance in complex social-ecological systems.

PubMed

Chaffin, Brian C; Gunderson, Lance H

2016-01-01

Adaptive governance provides the capacity for environmental managers and decision makers to confront variable degrees of uncertainty inherent to complex social-ecological systems. Current theoretical conceptualizations of adaptive governance represent a series of structures and processes best suited for either adapting or transforming existing environmental governance regimes towards forms flexible enough to confront rapid ecological change. As the number of empirical examples of adaptive governance described in the literature grows, the conceptual basis of adaptive governance remains largely under theorized. We argue that reconnecting adaptive governance with foundational concepts of ecological resilience-specifically Panarchy and the adaptive cycle of complex systems-highlights the importance of episodic disturbances and cross-scale interactions in triggering reorganizations in governance. By envisioning the processes of adaptive governance through the lens of Panarchy, scholars and practitioners alike will be better able to identify the emergence of adaptive governance, as well as take advantage of opportunities to institutionalize this type of governance in pursuit of sustainability outcomes. The synergistic analysis of adaptive governance and Panarchy can provide critical insight for analyzing the role of social dynamics during oscillating periods of stability and instability in social-ecological systems. A deeper understanding of the potential for cross-scale interactions to shape adaptive governance regimes may be useful as society faces the challenge of mitigating the impacts of global environmental change. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Ecological Rise of Whales Chronicled by the Fossil Record.

PubMed

Pyenson, Nicholas D

2017-06-05

The evolution of cetaceans is one of the best examples of macroevolution documented from the fossil record. While ecological transitions dominate each phase of cetacean history, this context is rarely stated explicitly. The first major ecological phase involves a transition from riverine and deltaic environments to marine ones, concomitant with dramatic evolutionary transformations documented in their early fossil record. The second major phase involves ecological shifts associated with evolutionary innovations: echolocation (facilitating hunting prey at depth) and filter-feeding (enhancing foraging efficiency on small prey). This latter phase involves body size shifts, attributable to changes in foraging depth and environmental forcing, as well as re-invasions of freshwater systems on continental basins by multiple lineages. Modern phenomena driving cetacean ecology, such as trophic dynamics and arms races, have an evolutionary basis that remains mostly unexamined. The fossil record of cetaceans provides an historical basis for understanding current ecological mechanisms and consequences, especially as global climate change rapidly alters ocean and river ecosystems at rates and scales comparable to those over geologic time. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

TREHS: An open-access software tool for investigating and evaluating temporary river regimes as a first step for their ecological status assessment.

PubMed

Gallart, Francesc; Cid, Núria; Latron, Jérôme; Llorens, Pilar; Bonada, Núria; Jeuffroy, Justin; Jiménez-Argudo, Sara-María; Vega, Rosa-María; Solà, Carolina; Soria, Maria; Bardina, Mònica; Hernández-Casahuga, Antoni-Josep; Fidalgo, Aránzazu; Estrela, Teodoro; Munné, Antoni; Prat, Narcís

2017-12-31

When the regime of a river is not perennial, there are four main difficulties with the use of hydrographs for assessing hydrological alteration: i) the main hydrological features relevant for biological communities are not quantitative (discharges) but qualitative (phases such as flowing water, stagnant pools or lack of surface water), ii) stream flow records do not inform on the temporal occurrence of stagnant pools, iii) as most of the temporary streams are ungauged, their regime has to be evaluated by alternative methods such as remote sensing or citizen science, and iv) the biological quality assessment of the ecological status of a temporary stream must follow a sampling schedule and references adapted to the flow- pool-dry regime. To overcome these challenges within an operational approach, the freely available software tool TREHS has been developed within the EU LIFE TRIVERS project. This software permits the input of information from flow simulations obtained with any rainfall-runoff model (to set an unimpacted reference stream regime) and compares this with the information obtained from flow gauging records (if available) and interviews with local people, as well as instantaneous observations by individuals and interpretation of ground-level or aerial photographs. Up to six metrics defining the permanence of water flow, the presence of stagnant pools and their temporal patterns of occurrence are used to determine natural and observed river regimes and to assess the degree of hydrological alteration. A new regime classification specifically designed for temporary rivers was developed using the metrics that measure the relative permanence of the three main phases: flow, disconnected pools and dry stream bed. Finally, the software characterizes the differences between the natural and actual regimes, diagnoses the hydrological status (degree of hydrological alteration), assesses the significance and robustness of the diagnosis and recommends the best periods for biological quality samplings. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Returning fire to the mountains: can we successfully restore the ecological role of pre-Euroamerican fire regimes to the Sierra Nevada?

Treesearch

Anthony C. Caprio; David M. Graber

2000-01-01

This paper examines the resultant conditions of Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Park’s burn program relative to knowledge about past fire regimes in this ecosystem. Estimates of past fire-return intervals provide management direction and were used to develop approximations of area burned prior to Euroamerican settlement. This information was used to develop simple...

Climate change and disturbance interactions: Workshop on climate change and disturbance interactions in western North America, Tucson, Ariz., 12-15 February 2007

USGS Publications Warehouse

McKenzie, Don; Allen, Craig D.

2007-01-01

Warming temperatures across western North America, coupled with increased drought, are expected to exacerbate disturbance regimes, particularly wildfires, insect outbreaks, and invasions of exotic species. Many ecologists and resource managers expect ecosystems to change more rapidly from disturbance effects than from the effects of a changing climate by itself. A particular challenge is to understand the interactions among disturbance regimes; for example, how will massive outbreaks of bark beetles, which kill drought-stressed trees by feeding on cambial tissues, increase the potential for large severe wildfires in a warming climate?Researchers in climatology, ecosystem science, fire and insect ecology, and landscape modeling from across western North America convened in Tucson, Ariz., for a 2 and a half day intensive workshop to identify new research directions in climate change and disturbance ecology. Four work groups focused on different aspects of the response of disturbance regimes to climate change: (1) extreme events and climatic variability (2) the effects of changing disturbance regimes on ecosystems, (3) disturbance interactions and cumulative effects, and (4) developing new landscape disturbance models. The workshop was structured with the analytic hierarchy process, a decision support method for achieving consensus from diverse groups of experts without sacrificing individual contributions.

Quantifying Trade-Offs Between Economic and Ecological Objectives in Uneven-Aged Mixed- Species Forests in the Southern United States

Treesearch

Joseph Buongiorno; Benedict Schulte; Kenneth E. Skog

2004-01-01

This paper summarizes research on the management of uneven-aged loblolly pine-hardwood stands in the southern United States. This research was composed of three elements: (1) modeling of biological growth of uneven-aged stands of mixed loblolly pine and hardwood trees, (2) optimization to discover sustainable regimes that would best meet economic and ecological...

Current and historical forest conditions and disturbance regimes in the Hoosier-Shawnee ecological assessment area

Treesearch

George R. Parker; Charles M. Ruffner

2004-01-01

We review the historical and current status of forests in the Hoosier-Shawnee Ecological Assessment Area. Native American people influenced the vegetation through fire and agricultural clearing across the region until the early 1800s when European settlers arrived. Clearing of the land for agriculture peaked in the early 1900s after which badly eroded land was...

Ecological opportunity alters the timing and shape of adaptive radiation.

PubMed

Burress, Edward D; Tan, Milton

2017-11-01

The uneven distribution of diversity is a conspicuous phenomenon across the tree of life. Ecological opportunity is a prominent catalyst of adaptive radiation and therefore may alter patterns of diversification. We evaluated the distribution of shifts in diversification rates across the cichlid phylogeny and the distribution of major clades across phylogenetic space. We also tested if ecological opportunity influenced these patterns. Colonization-associated ecological opportunity altered the tempo and mode of diversification during the adaptive radiation of cichlid fishes. Clades that arose following colonization events diversified faster than other clades. Speciation rate shifts were nonrandomly distributed across the phylogeny such that they were disproportionally concentrated around nodes that corresponded with colonization events (i.e., of continents, river basins, or lakes). Young clades tend to expand faster than older clades; however, colonization-associated ecological opportunity accentuated this pattern. There was an interaction between clade age and ecological opportunity that explained the trajectory of clades through phylogenetic space over time. Our results indicate that ecological opportunities afforded by continental and ecosystem-scale colonization events explain the dramatic speciation rate heterogeneity and phylogenetic imbalance that arose during the evolutionary history of cichlid fishes. © 2017 The Author(s). Evolution © 2017 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Increased stem density and competition may diminish the positive effects of warming at alpine treeline.

PubMed

Wang, Yafeng; Pederson, Neil; Ellison, Aaron M; Buckley, Hannah L; Case, Bradley S; Liang, Eryuan; Julio Camarero, J

2016-07-01

The most widespread response to global warming among alpine treeline ecotones is not an upward shift, but an increase in tree density. However, the impact of increasing density on interactions among trees at treeline is not well understood. Here, we test if treeline densification induced by climatic warming leads to increasing intraspecific competition. We mapped and measured the size and age of Smith fir trees growing in two treelines located in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau. We used spatial point-pattern and codispersion analyses to describe the spatial association and covariation among seedlings, juveniles, and adults grouped in 30-yr age classes from the 1860s to the present. Effects of competition on tree height and regeneration were inferred from bivariate mark-correlations. Since the 1950s, a rapid densification occurred at both sites in response to climatic warming. Competition between adults and juveniles or seedlings at small scales intensified as density increased. Encroachment negatively affected height growth and further reduced recruitment around mature trees. We infer that tree recruitment at the studied treelines was more cold-limited prior to 1950 and shifted to a less temperature-constrained regime in response to climatic warming. Therefore, the ongoing densification and encroachment of alpine treelines could alter the way climate drives their transitions toward subalpine forests. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

Specific non-monotonous interactions increase persistence of ecological networks.

PubMed

Yan, Chuan; Zhang, Zhibin

2014-03-22

The relationship between stability and biodiversity has long been debated in ecology due to opposing empirical observations and theoretical predictions. Species interaction strength is often assumed to be monotonically related to population density, but the effects on stability of ecological networks of non-monotonous interactions that change signs have not been investigated previously. We demonstrate that for four kinds of non-monotonous interactions, shifting signs to negative or neutral interactions at high population density increases persistence (a measure of stability) of ecological networks, while for the other two kinds of non-monotonous interactions shifting signs to positive interactions at high population density decreases persistence of networks. Our results reveal a novel mechanism of network stabilization caused by specific non-monotonous interaction types through either increasing stable equilibrium points or reducing unstable equilibrium points (or both). These specific non-monotonous interactions may be important in maintaining stable and complex ecological networks, as well as other networks such as genes, neurons, the internet and human societies.

Multiscale drivers of spatially variable grass production and loss in the Chihuahuan Desert

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Historic regime shifts from grass- to shrub-dominated states have been widespread in the Chihuahuan Desert and other arid and semiarid regions globally. These patterns of grass production and shifts to shrub dominance are spatially variable, and show a weak correlation with precipitation, suggesting...

Effect of climate-ocean changes on the abundance of Pacific saury.

PubMed

Gong, Yeong; Suh, Young Sang

2013-01-01

Effects of ocean climate changes on the population structure and abundance of Pacific saury (Cololabis sira) were investigated on the basis of climate indices, sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, catch and body size information from the Tsushima Warm Current (TWC) region (Yellow Sea, East China Sea and East/Japan Sea) during the period 1950-2010. It is suggested that oceanic regime shifts in the early 1970s, late 1980s and late 1990s occurred in the TWC region in winter, but the regime shifts in the mid-1970s and in the late 1980s were not evident in the spring SST anomaly series. The abundance and body size of Pacific saury fluctuated in association with the winter oceanic changes in the TWC region. The catch rates and abundance of large size saury were far bellow average during their northward migrations in the TWC region in the years with abnormally cool winters (e.g., 1963, 1970, 1977, 1981-1989 and 2006) and above average in the years with warm winters. These patterns demonstrate decadal-scale variations together with large inter-annual fluctuations in the structure and abundance of Pacific saury in association with the climatic-oceanic changes. These results, along with an alternation of dominant pelagic fish species, indicate the status of the saury population in the TWC region is in good condition, similar to that in the Kuroshio-Oyashio Current (KOC) region during the warm regime after the late 1980s climate regime shift.

A probabilistic approach to quantifying spatial patterns of flow regimes and network-scale connectivity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garbin, Silvia; Alessi Celegon, Elisa; Fanton, Pietro; Botter, Gianluca

2017-04-01

The temporal variability of river flow regime is a key feature structuring and controlling fluvial ecological communities and ecosystem processes. In particular, streamflow variability induced by climate/landscape heterogeneities or other anthropogenic factors significantly affects the connectivity between streams with notable implication for river fragmentation. Hydrologic connectivity is a fundamental property that guarantees species persistence and ecosystem integrity in riverine systems. In riverine landscapes, most ecological transitions are flow-dependent and the structure of flow regimes may affect ecological functions of endemic biota (i.e., fish spawning or grazing of invertebrate species). Therefore, minimum flow thresholds must be guaranteed to support specific ecosystem services, like fish migration, aquatic biodiversity and habitat suitability. In this contribution, we present a probabilistic approach aiming at a spatially-explicit, quantitative assessment of hydrologic connectivity at the network-scale as derived from river flow variability. Dynamics of daily streamflows are estimated based on catchment-scale climatic and morphological features, integrating a stochastic, physically based approach that accounts for the stochasticity of rainfall with a water balance model and a geomorphic recession flow model. The non-exceedance probability of ecologically meaningful flow thresholds is used to evaluate the fragmentation of individual stream reaches, and the ensuing network-scale connectivity metrics. A multi-dimensional Poisson Process for the stochastic generation of rainfall is used to evaluate the impact of climate signature on reach-scale and catchment-scale connectivity. The analysis shows that streamflow patterns and network-scale connectivity are influenced by the topology of the river network and the spatial variability of climatic properties (rainfall, evapotranspiration). The framework offers a robust basis for the prediction of the impact of land-use/land-cover changes and river regulation on network-scale connectivity.

Historical ecology of the northern Adriatic Sea: Down-core changes in molluscan death assemblages as indicators of ecological shifts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gallmetzer, Ivo; Haselmair, Alexandra; Tomasovych, Adam; Stachowitsch, Michael; Zuschin, Martin

2014-05-01

Modern marine ecological studies investigating ecosystem responses to environmental changes are normally restricted to annual or decadal time scales. The historical ecology approach used in the present study aims to shed light on the younger ecological history of the northern Adriatic Sea, targeting the period of the last 500 to 2000 years that have experienced major anthropogenic ecosystem impacts. Our investigations focus on down-core changes in death assemblages of benthic hard-part producers (molluscs, foraminifera, ostracods), where the degree of variation between different community structures serves as a proxy for ecological shifts. The northern Adriatic Sea, with its densely populated shoreline, lists among the most degraded marine ecosystems worldwide and is therefore particularly suited to study ecosystem modification under human pressure. Another advantage of this study area is the availability of historical data from marine surveys dating back to the 1930s.We incorporate these data in our analyses of more recent ecological shifts. More than 50 cores of 1.5 m length and diameters of 90 and 160 mm were taken at seven sampling stations throughout the northern Adriatic Sea, covering different sediment types, nutrient conditions and degrees of exposure to bottom trawling. The cores were sliced into smaller subsamples and analysed for species composition, abundance, taxonomic similarity, evidence for ecological interactions (i.e., frequencies of drilling predation) and taphonomic condition of shells. First results concerning down-core changes in species composition and abundance point to significant differences within single cores as well as between sites. The radiometric dating of the sediments revealed substantial differences in sedimentation rates and in the ratio between sediment depth and age. This information, together with carbon-calibrated amino acid- racemisation (AAR) of shells from selected species, will help to specify the timing of major ecological changes. Our approach should also deliver an image of "pristine" benthic communities that can serve as a reference for future conservation and management efforts in the northern Adriatic Sea.

Implications of recurrent disturbance for genetic diversity.

PubMed

Davies, Ian D; Cary, Geoffrey J; Landguth, Erin L; Lindenmayer, David B; Banks, Sam C

2016-02-01

Exploring interactions between ecological disturbance, species' abundances and community composition provides critical insights for ecological dynamics. While disturbance is also potentially an important driver of landscape genetic patterns, the mechanisms by which these patterns may arise by selective and neutral processes are not well-understood. We used simulation to evaluate the relative importance of disturbance regime components, and their interaction with demographic and dispersal processes, on the distribution of genetic diversity across landscapes. We investigated genetic impacts of variation in key components of disturbance regimes and spatial patterns that are likely to respond to climate change and land management, including disturbance size, frequency, and severity. The influence of disturbance was mediated by dispersal distance and, to a limited extent, by birth rate. Nevertheless, all three disturbance regime components strongly influenced spatial and temporal patterns of genetic diversity within subpopulations, and were associated with changes in genetic structure. Furthermore, disturbance-induced changes in temporal population dynamics and the spatial distribution of populations across the landscape resulted in disrupted isolation by distance patterns among populations. Our results show that forecast changes in disturbance regimes have the potential to cause major changes to the distribution of genetic diversity within and among populations. We highlight likely scenarios under which future changes to disturbance size, severity, or frequency will have the strongest impacts on population genetic patterns. In addition, our results have implications for the inference of biological processes from genetic data, because the effects of dispersal on genetic patterns were strongly mediated by disturbance regimes.

Exploiting ecology in drug pulse sequences in favour of population reduction.

PubMed

Bauer, Marianne; Graf, Isabella R; Ngampruetikorn, Vudtiwat; Stephens, Greg J; Frey, Erwin

2017-09-01

A deterministic population dynamics model involving birth and death for a two-species system, comprising a wild-type and more resistant species competing via logistic growth, is subjected to two distinct stress environments designed to mimic those that would typically be induced by temporal variation in the concentration of a drug (antibiotic or chemotherapeutic) as it permeates through the population and is progressively degraded. Different treatment regimes, involving single or periodical doses, are evaluated in terms of the minimal population size (a measure of the extinction probability), and the population composition (a measure of the selection pressure for resistance or tolerance during the treatment). We show that there exist timescales over which the low-stress regime is as effective as the high-stress regime, due to the competition between the two species. For multiple periodic treatments, competition can ensure that the minimal population size is attained during the first pulse when the high-stress regime is short, which implies that a single short pulse can be more effective than a more protracted regime. Our results suggest that when the duration of the high-stress environment is restricted, a treatment with one or multiple shorter pulses can produce better outcomes than a single long treatment. If ecological competition is to be exploited for treatments, it is crucial to determine these timescales, and estimate for the minimal population threshold that suffices for extinction. These parameters can be quantified by experiment.

Electrically Tunable Goos-Hänchen Effect with Graphene in the Terahertz Regime

DOE PAGES

Fan, Yuancheng; Shen, Nian-Hai; Zhang, Fuli; ...

2016-07-14

Goos-Hänchen (G-H) effect is of great interest in the manipulation of optical beams. However, it is still fairly challenging to attain efficient controls of the G-H shift for diverse applications. Here, we propose a mechanism to realize tunable G-H shift in the terahertz regime with electrically controllable graphene. Taking monolayer graphene covered epsilon-near-zero metamaterial as a planar model system, it is found that the G-H shift for the orthogonal s-polarized and p-polarized terahertz beams at oblique incidence are positive and negative, respectively. The G-H shift can be modified substantially by electrically controlling the Fermi energy of the monolayer graphene. Reversely,more » the Fermi energy dependent G-H effect can also be used as a strategy for measuring the doping level of graphene. In addition, the G-H shifts of the system are of strong frequency-dependence at oblique angles of incidence, therefore the proposed graphene hybrid system can potentially be used for the generation of terahertz “rainbow”, a flat analog of the dispersive prism in optics. The proposed scheme of hybrid system involving graphene for dynamic control of G-H shift will have potential applications in the manipulation of terahertz waves.« less

Linking global-change induced shifts in soil nitrogen cycling with the abundance of key microorganisms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carey, C.; Eviner, V.; Beman, M.; Hart, S. C.

2013-12-01

Since western colonization, the ecology of California has seen marked transformations. In particular, invasion of terrestrial ecosystems by exotic plants has altered plant community composition, disturbances, soil hydrologic regimes, and nutrient cycling. In addition, as a result of fertilization and combustion of fossil fuels, California experiences some of the highest nitrogen (N) deposition rates in the country. Land use has also changed with the introduction of domestic livestock grazing about 250 years ago. Currently, approximately 32% of land in California experiences grazing pressure. These ecological changes likely affect the ecosystems of California simultaneously. However, with multifactor global change experiments in their infancy, little is known about potential interactive effects on ecosystem structure and function. Our study measured the response of soil N dynamics to a unique combination of treatments: invasion by exotic plants (Aegilops triuncialis and Taeniatherum caput-medusae), elevated N additions, and simulated cattle grazing (aboveground vegetation removal). In addition, we quantified the abundance of key functional genes involved in nitrification (amoA) and denitrification (nirS/nirK) in order to gain a mechanistic insight into changes in ecosystem functioning. We found that, while responses of soil N pools and processes to global change factors tend to be dominated by main effects, interactions among factors can substantially alter the overall response of the ecosystem. For instance, N additions increased potential nitrification and pools of total inorganic N (TIN; NH4+ and NO3-); when N additions and grazing were combined, however, nitrification potentials and TIN decreased to those of ambient N (control) levels. Additionally, neither N additions nor simulated grazing independently affected soil microbial biomass of invaded plots; yet, when combined, the microbial biomass increased significantly. Our results help to provide a better understanding of the regulatory role of the soil microbial community in terrestrial N cycling and also help to improve our understanding of the controls on global change-induced shifts in ecosystem functioning.

Tools and perspectives for a unified approach to understanding microbial ecology in the critical zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gallery, R. E.; Aronson, E. L.; Fairbanks, D.; Murphy, M. A.; Rich, V. I.; Hart, S. C.

2015-12-01

Microbial communities that control nutrient transformation and storage in ecosystems are themselves influenced by landscape topography and vegetative cover. Globally, disturbances such as fires and insect outbreaks are increasing in frequency and severity with enormous impacts on global carbon cycling. The resiliency of soil microbial communities to these heterogeneous disturbances determines rates of nutrient transformations as well as ecosystem structure and recovery. Natural and anthropogenic disturbances are a common thread throughout Critical Zone Observatories and ecosystems in general. Using the 2013 Thompson Ridge Fire in the Jemez River Basin CZO as a case study, we examine the effect of a wildfire disturbance regime on successional changes in soil microbiota and ecosystem fluxes across a landscape with high topographic variation. We find that, layered over the topographic controls of hotspots of biogeochemical activity, fire alters organic substrate quality, microbial biomass, community structure, and activity. For example, fire increases soil pH, which is commonly found as an explanatory variable describing bacterial community structure. Soil microbes excrete exoenzymes to decompose polymers and acquire nutrients, and these activities can indicate changing microbial function or soil quality. In these mixed conifer forests, we find shifts from carbon to nitrogen-dominated exoenzyme activities in burned forests with alkaline soils, suggesting shifts of microbial taxa and function that correspond with recovering soil microbial biomass. More generally we ask - what combination of tools and perspectives is needed to fully understand soil microbial ecology and biogeochemistry of the critical zone? Results from an NSF Science Across Virtual Institutes (SAVI) CZO Network Biogeochemistry Workshop highlight the importance of incorporating a standard suite of microbial activity and community assays along with soil biogeochemical and flux measurements to enable comparisons across the broader CZO network. These characterizations would provide regional microbial function and biodiversity data in a standardized framework that can be used to enable more effective management and valuation of critical zone services and inform projections under global change scenarios.

Adding Fuel to the Fire: The Contribution of Perennial Bunchgrasses in Altering Fire Regimes in the Great Basin

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The historic fire return interval in Wyoming sagebrush ecosystems has been estimated in the hundreds of years; however, the current fire regime has shifted to short fire return intervals with some areas burning six times in the past 60 years. Invasive annual grasses (e.g. Bromus tectorum) are freque...

Exciton diamagnetic shift and optical properties in CdSe nanocrystal quantum dots in magnetic fields

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Shudong; Cheng, Liwen

2018-04-01

The magnetic field dependence of the optical properties of CdSe nanocrystal quantum dots (NQDs) is investigated theoretically using a perturbation method within the effective-mass approximation. The results show that the magnetic field lifts the degeneracy of the electron (hole) states. A blue-shift in the absorption spectra of m ≥ 0 exciton states is observed while the absorption peak of m < 0 exciton states is first red-shifted and then blue-shifted with increasing the magnetic field strength B. This is attributed to the interplay of the orbital Zeeman effect and the additive confinement induced by the magnetic field. The excitonic absorption coefficient is almost independent of B in the strong confinement regime. The applied magnetic field causes the splitting of degenerated exciton states, resulting in the new absorption peaks. Based on the first-order perturbation theory, we propose the analytical expressions for the exciton binding energy, exciton transition energy and exciton diamagnetic shift of 1s, 1p-1, 1p0, 1p1, 1d-2, 1d-1, 1d0, 1d1, 1d2 and 2s exciton states on the applied magnetic field in the strong confinement regime.

Deep history impacts present-day ecology and biodiversity

PubMed Central

Vitt, Laurie J.; Pianka, Eric R.

2005-01-01

Lizards and snakes putatively arose between the early Jurassic and late Triassic; they diversified worldwide and now occupy many different ecological niches, making them ideal for testing theories on the origin of ecological traits. We propose and test the “deep history hypothesis,” which claims that differences in ecological traits among species arose early in evolutionary history of major clades, and that present-day assemblages are structured largely because of ancient, preexisting differences. We combine phylogenetic data with ecological data collected over nearly 40 years to reconstruct the evolution of dietary shifts in squamate reptiles. Data on diets of 184 lizard species in 12 families from 4 continents reveal significant dietary shifts at 6 major divergence points, reducing variation by 79.8%. The most striking dietary divergence (27.6%) occurred in the late Triassic, when Iguania and Scleroglossa split. These two clades occupy different regions of dietary niche space. Acquisition of chemical prey discrimination, jaw prehension, and wide foraging provided scleroglossans access to sedentary and hidden prey that are unavailable to iguanians. This cladogenic event may have profoundly influenced subsequent evolutionary history and diversification. We suggest the hypothesis that ancient events in squamate cladogenesis, rather than present-day competition, caused dietary shifts in major clades such that some lizard clades gained access to new resources, which in turn led to much of the biodiversity observed today. PMID:15867150

Ecological and methodological drivers of species' distribution and phenology responses to climate change.

PubMed

Brown, Christopher J; O'Connor, Mary I; Poloczanska, Elvira S; Schoeman, David S; Buckley, Lauren B; Burrows, Michael T; Duarte, Carlos M; Halpern, Benjamin S; Pandolfi, John M; Parmesan, Camille; Richardson, Anthony J

2016-04-01

Climate change is shifting species' distribution and phenology. Ecological traits, such as mobility or reproductive mode, explain variation in observed rates of shift for some taxa. However, estimates of relationships between traits and climate responses could be influenced by how responses are measured. We compiled a global data set of 651 published marine species' responses to climate change, from 47 papers on distribution shifts and 32 papers on phenology change. We assessed the relative importance of two classes of predictors of the rate of change, ecological traits of the responding taxa and methodological approaches for quantifying biological responses. Methodological differences explained 22% of the variation in range shifts, more than the 7.8% of the variation explained by ecological traits. For phenology change, methodological approaches accounted for 4% of the variation in measurements, whereas 8% of the variation was explained by ecological traits. Our ability to predict responses from traits was hindered by poor representation of species from the tropics, where temperature isotherms are moving most rapidly. Thus, the mean rate of distribution change may be underestimated by this and other global syntheses. Our analyses indicate that methodological approaches should be explicitly considered when designing, analysing and comparing results among studies. To improve climate impact studies, we recommend that (1) reanalyses of existing time series state how the existing data sets may limit the inferences about possible climate responses; (2) qualitative comparisons of species' responses across different studies be limited to studies with similar methodological approaches; (3) meta-analyses of climate responses include methodological attributes as covariates; and (4) that new time series be designed to include the detection of early warnings of change or ecologically relevant change. Greater consideration of methodological attributes will improve the accuracy of analyses that seek to quantify the role of climate change in species' distribution and phenology changes. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Combining soundscape analysis with in situ observations and oceanographic data for future ecosystem evaluation techniques.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Freeman, S. E.; Freeman, L. A.

2016-02-01

Coral reef ecosystems face many anthropogenic threats. There are urgent requirements for improved monitoring and management. Conventional assessment methods using SCUBA are costly and prone to bias and under-sampling. Here, three approaches to understanding coral reef ecology are combined to aid the goal of enhanced passive monitoring in the future: statistical analysis of oceanographic habitats, remote cameras for nocturnal surveys of benthic fauna, and soundscape analysis in the context of oceanographic setting and ecological metrics collected in-situ. Hawaiian reefs from Kure Atoll to the island of Hawaii, an area spanning two oceanographic habitats, are assessed. Multivariate analysis of acoustic, remote camera, and in-situ observational data showed significant differences in more than 20 percent of ecological and acoustic variables when grouped by oceanic regime, suggesting that large-scale oceanography substantially influences local ecological states and associated soundscapes. Acoustic variables further delineated sites by island, suggesting local conditions influence the soundscape to a greater degree. While the number of invertebrates (with an emphasis on crustaceans and echinoderms) imaged using remote cameras correlated with a number of acoustic metrics, an increasingly higher correlation between invertebrate density and spectral level was observed as acoustic bands increased in frequency from 2 to 20 kHz. In turn, correlation was also observed between the number of predatory fish and sound levels above 2 kHz, suggesting a connection between the number of invertebrates, sound levels at higher frequencies, and the presence of their predators. Comparisons between sound recordings and diversity indices calculated from observational and remote camera data indicate that greater diversity in fishes and benthic invertebrates is associated with a larger change in sound levels between day and night. Interdisciplinary analyses provide a novel view to underwater ecology, and can reveal new quantitative metrics that may be more efficiently sampled. These techniques may be used to detect subtle yet important shifts in ecosystem function, critical for effective marine resource management in the face of environmental changes that occur over multi-year timescales.

Community-level consequences of cannibalism.

PubMed

Ohlberger, Jan; Langangen, Oystein; Stenseth, Nils C; Vøllestad, L Asbjørn

2012-12-01

Ecological interactions determine the structure and dynamics of communities and their responses to the environment. Understanding the community-level effects of ecological interactions, such as intra- and interspecifc competition, predation, and cannibalism, is therefore central to ecological theory and ecosystem management. Here, we investigate the community-level consequences of cannibalism in populations with density-dependent maturation and reproduction. We model a stage-structured consumer population with an ontogenetic diet shift to analyze how cannibalism alters the conditions for the invasion and persistence of stage-specific predators and competitors. Our results demonstrate that cannibalistic interactions can facilitate coexistence with other species at both trophic levels. This effect of cannibalism critically depends on the food dependence of the demographic processes. The underlying mechanism is a cannibalism-induced shift in the biomass distribution between the consumer life stages. These findings suggest that cannibalism may alter the structure of ecological communities through its effects on species coexistence.

Social-Ecological Changes in a Quilombola Community in the Atlantic Forest of Southeastern Brazil.

PubMed

Thorkildsen, Kjersti

2014-01-01

Through a combined adaptive cycle and political ecology approach, this article explores how the Afro-Brazilian Quilombolas of Bombas, living inside the protected area of PETAR, respond to and shape social-ecological changes in the Atlantic Forest. Field data reveal that both environmental restrictions and social policies of state transfer payments and food packages have contributed to decreased engagement in agricultural practices, loss of traditional knowledge, and reduced agro-biodiversity. The claim to land rights based on a Quilombola identity and recent negotiations with forest authorities insinuate a shift of this trend. Contrary to dominant conservation narratives, the findings indicate that small-scale shifting cultivation practices by the Quilombolas have the potential to increase structural ecological complexity of the Atlantic Forest. The article therefore argues that legalization of settlement and subsistence activities is important not only for livelihood security and social cohesion of Bombas inhabitants, but also possibly for biodiversity conservation.

Simulations of stretching a flexible polyelectrolyte with varying charge separation

DOE PAGES

Stevens, Mark J.; Saleh, Omar A.

2016-07-22

We calculated the force-extension curves for a flexible polyelectrolyte chain with varying charge separations by performing Monte Carlo simulations of a 5000 bead chain using a screened Coulomb interaction. At all charge separations, the force-extension curves exhibit a Pincus-like scaling regime at intermediate forces and a logarithmic regime at large forces. As the charge separation increases, the Pincus regime shifts to a larger range of forces and the logarithmic regime starts are larger forces. We also found that force-extension curve for the corresponding neutral chain has a logarithmic regime. Decreasing the diameter of bead in the neutral chain simulations removedmore » the logarithmic regime, and the force-extension curve tends to the freely jointed chain limit. In conclusion, this result shows that only excluded volume is required for the high force logarithmic regime to occur.« less

On the dangers of model complexity without ecological justification in species distribution modeling

Treesearch

David M. Bell; Daniel R. Schlaepfer

2016-01-01

Although biogeographic patterns are the product of complex ecological processes, the increasing com-plexity of correlative species distribution models (SDMs) is not always motivated by ecological theory,but by model fit. The validity of model projections, such as shifts in a species’ climatic niche, becomesquestionable particularly during extrapolations, such as for...

Regime Shifts in Shallow Lakes: Responses of Cyanobacterial Blooms to Watershed Agricultural Phosphorus Loading Over the Last ~100 Years.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vermaire, J. C.; Taranu, Z. E.; MacDonald, G. K.; Velghe, K.; Bennett, E.; Gregory-Eaves, I.

2015-12-01

Rapid changes in ecosystem states have occurred naturally throughout Earth's history. However, environmental changes that have taken place since the start of the Anthropocene may be destabilizing ecosystems and increasing the frequency of regime shifts in response to abrupt changes in external drivers or local intrinsic dynamics. To evaluate the relative influence of these forcers and improve our understanding of the impact of future change, we examined the effects of historical catchment phosphorus loading associated with agricultural land use on lake ecosystems, and whether this caused a shift from a stable, clear-water, regime to a turbid, cyanobacteria-dominated, state. The sedimentary pigments, diatom, and zooplankton (Cladocera) records from a currently clear-water shallow lake (Roxton Pond) and a turbid-water shallow lake (Petit lac Saint-François; PSF) were examined to determine if a cyanobacteria associated pigment (i.e. echinenone) showed an abrupt non-linear response to continued historical phosphorus load index (determined by phosphorus budget) over the last ~100 years. While PSF lake is presently in the turbid-water state, pigment and diatom analyses indicated that both lakes were once in the clear-water state, and that non-linear increases in catchment phosphorus balance resulted in an abrupt transition to cyanobacteria dominated states in each record. These results show that phosphorus loading has resulted in state shifts in shallow lake ecosystems that has been recorded across multiple paleolimnological indicators preserved in the sedimentary record.

Arctic systems in the Quaternary: ecological collision, faunal mosaics and the consequences of a wobbling climate.

PubMed

Hoberg, E P; Cook, J A; Agosta, S J; Boeger, W; Galbreath, K E; Laaksonen, S; Kutz, S J; Brooks, D R

2017-07-01

Climate oscillations and episodic processes interact with evolution, ecology and biogeography to determine the structure and complex mosaic that is the biosphere. Parasites and parasite-host assemblages are key components in a general explanatory paradigm for global biodiversity. We explore faunal assembly in the context of Quaternary time frames of the past 2.6 million years, a period dominated by episodic shifts in climate. Climate drivers cross a continuum from geological to contemporary timescales and serve to determine the structure and distribution of complex biotas. Cycles within cycles are apparent, with drivers that are layered, multifactorial and complex. These cycles influence the dynamics and duration of shifts in environmental structure on varying temporal and spatial scales. An understanding of the dynamics of high-latitude systems, the history of the Beringian nexus (the intermittent land connection linking Eurasia and North America) and downstream patterns of diversity depend on teasing apart the complexity of biotic assembly and persistence. Although climate oscillations have dominated the Quaternary, contemporary dynamics are driven by tipping points and shifting balances emerging from anthropogenic forces that are disrupting ecological structure. Climate change driven by anthropogenic forcing has supplanted a history of episodic variation and is eliminating ecological barriers and constraints on development and distribution for pathogen transmission. A framework to explore interactions of episodic processes on faunal structure and assembly is the Stockholm Paradigm, which appropriately shifts the focus from cospeciation to complexity and contingency in explanations of diversity.

Fire ecology and management in grasslands of the American Southwest (Ecologia a de fuego y manejo de pastizales en el Sudoeste Norteamericano)

Treesearch

Guy R. McPherson

2006-01-01

Many ecologists have indicated that fire is as important as wind or precipitation in shaping North American ecosystems. There is little question that fire is prevalent in grasslands and that it contributes to the structure and function of such systems in the Southwest. In this paper I outline pre-settlement fire regimes, then describe post-settlement regimes and...

Dynamical resonance shift and unification of resonances in short-pulse laser-cluster interaction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahalik, S. S.; Kundu, M.

2018-06-01

Pronounced maximum absorption of laser light irradiating a rare-gas or metal cluster is widely expected during the linear resonance (LR) when Mie-plasma wavelength λM of electrons equals the laser wavelength λ . On the contrary, by performing molecular dynamics (MD) simulations of an argon cluster irradiated by short 5-fs (FWHM) laser pulses it is revealed that, for a given laser pulse energy and a cluster, at each peak intensity there exists a λ —shifted from the expected λM—that corresponds to a unified dynamical LR at which evolution of the cluster happens through very efficient unification of possible resonances in various stages, including (i) the LR in the initial time of plasma creation, (ii) the LR in the Coulomb expanding phase in the later time, and (iii) anharmonic resonance in the marginally overdense regime for a relatively longer pulse duration, leading to maximum laser absorption accompanied by maximum removal of electrons from cluster and also maximum allowed average charge states for the argon cluster. Increasing the laser intensity, the absorption maxima is found to shift to a higher wavelength in the band of λ ≈(1 -1.5 ) λM than permanently staying at the expected λM. A naive rigid sphere model also corroborates the wavelength shift of the absorption peak as found in MD and unequivocally proves that maximum laser absorption in a cluster happens at a shifted λ in the marginally overdense regime of λ ≈(1 -1.5 ) λM instead of λM of LR. The present study is important for guiding an optimal condition laser-cluster interaction experiment in the short-pulse regime.

Probe-controlled soliton frequency shift in the regime of optical event horizon.

PubMed

Gu, Jie; Guo, Hairun; Wang, Shaofei; Zeng, Xianglong

2015-08-24

In optical analogy of the event horizon, temporal pulse collision and mutual interactions are mainly between an intense solitary wave (soliton) and a dispersive probe wave. In such a regime, here we numerically investigate the probe-controlled soliton frequency shift as well as the soliton self-compression. In particular, in the dispersion landscape with multiple zero dispersion wavelengths, bi-directional soliton spectral tunneling effects is possible. Moreover, we propose a mid-infrared soliton self-compression to the generation of few-cycle ultrashort pulses, in a bulk of quadratic nonlinear crystals in contrast to optical fibers or cubic nonlinear media, which could contribute to the community with a simple and flexible method to experimental implementations.

Searching for a crack to let environment light in: ecological biopolitics and education for sustainable development discourses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gough, Annette

2017-12-01

This article traces the shifts in environmental education discourses from the 1972 UN Conference on the Human Environment, to the 2012 UN Rio+20 Conference on Sustainable Development, and beyond through a biopolitical lens. Each of the earlier shifts is reflected in environmental, sustainability and science education policies and curricula—but what of the most recent shifts at Rio+20 and in UNESCO's (2014) Roadmap for Implementing the Global Action Programme on Education for Sustainable Development? The article examines how the ecological version of politics emerged and then became integrated into technocentric biopolitics and how this shift affected the shaping of environmental, sustainability and science education policies and curricula. In particular, the article analyzes the shifting biopolitical interfaces that have occurred between "natural environment" and "society"—from a goal of preserving the natural foundations of life to a focus on exploiting these foundations, modifying and transforming the environment through scientific and technological means—and the manifestations of this in Australian curriculum documents.

Indigenous Youth as Language Policy Makers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McCarty, Teresa L.; Romero-Little, Mary Eunice; Warhol, Larisa; Zepeda, Ofelia

2009-01-01

This article offers a grounded view of language shift as experienced by Native American youth across a range of early- to late-shift settings. Drawing on data from a long-term ethnographic study, we demonstrate that the linguistic ecologies in which youth language choices play out are more complex than a unidirectional notion of shift might…

Beyond Metrics? The Role of Hydrologic Baseline Archetypes in Environmental Water Management.

PubMed

Lane, Belize A; Sandoval-Solis, Samuel; Stein, Eric D; Yarnell, Sarah M; Pasternack, Gregory B; Dahlke, Helen E

2018-06-22

Balancing ecological and human water needs often requires characterizing key aspects of the natural flow regime and then predicting ecological response to flow alterations. Flow metrics are generally relied upon to characterize long-term average statistical properties of the natural flow regime (hydrologic baseline conditions). However, some key aspects of hydrologic baseline conditions may be better understood through more complete consideration of continuous patterns of daily, seasonal, and inter-annual variability than through summary metrics. Here we propose the additional use of high-resolution dimensionless archetypes of regional stream classes to improve understanding of baseline hydrologic conditions and inform regional environmental flows assessments. In an application to California, we describe the development and analysis of hydrologic baseline archetypes to characterize patterns of flow variability within and between stream classes. We then assess the utility of archetypes to provide context for common flow metrics and improve understanding of linkages between aquatic patterns and processes and their hydrologic controls. Results indicate that these archetypes may offer a distinct and complementary tool for researching mechanistic flow-ecology relationships, assessing regional patterns for streamflow management, or understanding impacts of changing climate.

Policy and strategy considerations for assisted migration on USDA Forest Service lands

Treesearch

Randy Johnson; Sandy Boyce; Leslie Brandt; Vicky Erickson; Louis Iverson; Greg Kujawa; Borys Tkacz

2013-01-01

Due to increased temperatures and shifts in precipitation patterns associated with climate change, bioclimatic zones that provide habitat for many species are expected to expand, contract, disappear, shift poleward, or move towards higher elevations (WGA 2008). Species will respond to changing climate and disturbance regimes individually, with some species moving...

A 200-year perspective on alternative stable state theory and lake management from a biomanipulated shallow lake.

PubMed

Hobbs, William O; Hobbs, Joy M Ramstack; LaFrançois, Toben; Zimmer, Kyle D; Theissen, Kevin M; Edlund, Mark B; Michelutti, Neal; Butler, Malcolm G; Hanson, Mark A; Carlson, Thomas J

2012-07-01

Multiple stressors to a shallow lake ecosystem have the ability to control the relative stability of alternative states (clear, macrophyte-dominated or turbid, algal-dominated). As a consequence, the use of remedial biomanipulations to induce trophic cascades and shift a turbid lake to a clear state is often only a temporary solution. Here we show the instability of short-term manipulations in the shallow Lake Christina (Minnesota, USA) is governed by the long-term state following a regime shift in the lake. During the modern, managed period of the lake, three top-down manipulations (fish kills) were undertaken inducing temporary (5-10 years) unstable clear-water states. Paleoecological remains of diatoms, along with proxies of primary production (total chlorophyll a and total organic carbon accumulation rate) and trophic state (total P) from sediment records clearly show a single regime shift in the lake during the early 1950s; following this shift, the functioning of the lake ecosystem is dominated by a persistent turbid state. We find that multiple stressors contributed to the regime shift. First, the lake began to eutrophy (from agricultural land use and/or increased waterfowl populations), leading to a dramatic increase in primary production. Soon after, the construction of a dam in 1936 effectively doubled the depth of the lake, compounded by increases in regional humidity; this resulted in an increase in planktivorous and benthivorous fish reducing phytoplankton grazers. These factors further conspired to increase the stability of a turbid regime during the modern managed period, such that switches to a clear-water state were inherently unstable and the lake consistently returned to a turbid state. We conclude that while top-down manipulations have had measurable impacts on the lake state, they have not been effective in providing a return to an ecosystem similar to the stable historical period. Our work offers an example of a well-studied ecosystem forced by multiple stressors into a new long-term managed period, where manipulated clear-water states are temporary, managed features.

Environmental toxicology: Interconnections between human health and ecological integrity

EPA Science Inventory

This presentation will discuss what has made a career in environmental toxicology rewarding, environmental and scientific challenges for the 21st century, paradigm shift in regulatory toxicology, adverse outcome framework, interconnections between human health and ecological inte...

Simulation of forest change in the New Jersey Pine Barrens under current and pre-colonial conditions

Treesearch

Robert M. Scheller; Steve Van Tuyl; Kenneth Clark; Nicholas G. Hayden; John Hom; David J. Mladenoff

2008-01-01

Changes in land use patterns in and around forests, including rural development and road building, have occurred throughout the United States and are accelerating in many areas. As a result, there have been significant departures from 'natural' or pre-settlement disturbance regimes. Altered disturbance regimes can shift composition and dominance in tree...

San Diego Declaration on Climate Change and Fire Management: Ramifications for fuels management

Treesearch

Brian P. Oswald

2007-01-01

Climate plays a central role in shaping fire regimes over long time scales and in generating short-term weather that drives fire events. Recent research suggests that the increasing numbers of large and severe wildfires, lengthened wildfire seasons, and increased area burned are, in part, related to shifts in climate. The historical fire regimes in many ecosystems have...

Sagebrush steppe and pinyon-juniper ecosystems: effects of changing fire regimes, increased fuel loads, and invasive species

Treesearch

Jeanne C. Chambers; E. Durant McArthur; Steven B. Monson; Susan E. Meyer; Nancy L. Shaw; Robin J. Tausch; Robert R. Blank; Steve Bunting; Richard R. Miller; Mike Pellant; Bruce A. Roundy; Scott C. Walker; Alison Whittaker

2005-01-01

Pinyon-juniper woodlands and Wyoming big sagebrush ecosystems have undergone major changes in vegetation structure and composition since settlement by European Americans. These changes are resulting in dramatic shifts in fire frequency, size and severity. Effective management of these systems has been hindered by lack of information on: (1) presettlement fire regimes...

Advancing towards functional environmental flows for temperate floodplain rivers.

PubMed

Hayes, Daniel S; Brändle, Julia M; Seliger, Carina; Zeiringer, Bernhard; Ferreira, Teresa; Schmutz, Stefan

2018-08-15

Abstraction, diversion, and storage of flow alter rivers worldwide. In this context, minimum flow regulations are applied to mitigate adverse impacts and to protect affected river reaches from environmental deterioration. Mostly, however, only selected instream criteria are considered, neglecting the floodplain as an indispensable part of the fluvial ecosystem. Based on essential functions and processes of unimpaired temperate floodplain rivers, we identify fundamental principles to which we must adhere to determine truly ecologically-relevant environmental flows. Literature reveals that the natural flow regime and its seasonal components are primary drivers for functions and processes of abiotic and biotic elements such as morphology, water quality, floodplain, groundwater, riparian vegetation, fish, macroinvertebrates, and amphibians, thus preserving the integrity of floodplain river ecosystems. Based on the relationship between key flow regime elements and associated environmental components within as well as adjacent to the river, we formulate a process-oriented functional floodplain flow (ff-flow) approach which offers a holistic conceptual framework for environmental flow assessment in temperate floodplain river systems. The ff-flow approach underlines the importance of emulating the natural flow regime with its seasonal variability, flow magnitude, frequency, event duration, and rise and fall of the hydrograph. We conclude that the ecological principles presented in the ff-flow approach ensure the protection of floodplain rivers impacted by flow regulation by establishing ecologically relevant environmental flows and guiding flow restoration measures. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Resilience of the Nexus of Competitive Water Consumption between Human Society and Environment Development: Regime Shifts and Early Warning Signals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Z.; Liu, P.; Feng, M.; Zhang, J.

2017-12-01

Based on the modeling of the water supply, power generation and environment (WPE) nexus by Feng et al. (2016), a refined theoretical model of competitive water consumption between human society and environment has been presented in this study, examining the role of technology advancement and social environmental awareness growth-induced pollution mitigation to the environment as a mechanism for the establishment and maintenance of the coexistence of both higher social water consumption and improved environment condition. By coupling environmental and social dynamics, both of which are represented by water consumption quantity, this study shows the possibility of sustainable situation of the social-environmental system when the benefit of technology offsets the side effect (pollution) of social development to the environment. Additionally, regime shifts could be triggered by gradually increased pollution rate, climate change-induced natural resources reduction and breakdown of the social environmental awareness. Therefore, in order to foresee the pending abrupt regime shifts of the system, early warning signals, including increasing variance and autocorrelation, have been examined when the system is undergoing stochastic disturbance. ADDIN EN.REFLIST Feng, M. et al., 2016. Modeling the nexus across water supply, power generation and environment systems using the system dynamics approach: Hehuang Region, China. J. Hydrol., 543: 344-359.

Climate change adaptation strategies for resource management and conservation planning.

PubMed

Lawler, Joshua J

2009-04-01

Recent rapid changes in the Earth's climate have altered ecological systems around the globe. Global warming has been linked to changes in physiology, phenology, species distributions, interspecific interactions, and disturbance regimes. Projected future climate change will undoubtedly result in even more dramatic shifts in the states of many ecosystems. These shifts will provide one of the largest challenges to natural resource managers and conservation planners. Managing natural resources and ecosystems in the face of uncertain climate requires new approaches. Here, the many adaptation strategies that have been proposed for managing natural systems in a changing climate are reviewed. Most of the recommended approaches are general principles and many are tools that managers are already using. What is new is a turning toward a more agile management perspective. To address climate change, managers will need to act over different spatial and temporal scales. The focus of restoration will need to shift from historic species assemblages to potential future ecosystem services. Active adaptive management based on potential future climate impact scenarios will need to be a part of everyday operations. And triage will likely become a critical option. Although many concepts and tools for addressing climate change have been proposed, key pieces of information are still missing. To successfully manage for climate change, a better understanding will be needed of which species and systems will likely be most affected by climate change, how to preserve and enhance the evolutionary capacity of species, how to implement effective adaptive management in new systems, and perhaps most importantly, in which situations and systems will the general adaptation strategies that have been proposed work and how can they be effectively applied.

Temperature sensitivity of drought-induced tree mortality portends increased regional die-off under global-change-type drought

PubMed Central

Adams, Henry D.; Guardiola-Claramonte, Maite; Barron-Gafford, Greg A.; Villegas, Juan Camilo; Breshears, David D.; Zou, Chris B.; Troch, Peter A.; Huxman, Travis E.

2009-01-01

Large-scale biogeographical shifts in vegetation are predicted in response to the altered precipitation and temperature regimes associated with global climate change. Vegetation shifts have profound ecological impacts and are an important climate-ecosystem feedback through their alteration of carbon, water, and energy exchanges of the land surface. Of particular concern is the potential for warmer temperatures to compound the effects of increasingly severe droughts by triggering widespread vegetation shifts via woody plant mortality. The sensitivity of tree mortality to temperature is dependent on which of 2 non-mutually-exclusive mechanisms predominates—temperature-sensitive carbon starvation in response to a period of protracted water stress or temperature-insensitive sudden hydraulic failure under extreme water stress (cavitation). Here we show that experimentally induced warmer temperatures (≈4 °C) shortened the time to drought-induced mortality in Pinus edulis (piñon shortened pine) trees by nearly a third, with temperature-dependent differences in cumulative respiration costs implicating carbon starvation as the primary mechanism of mortality. Extrapolating this temperature effect to the historic frequency of water deficit in the southwestern United States predicts a 5-fold increase in the frequency of regional-scale tree die-off events for this species due to temperature alone. Projected increases in drought frequency due to changes in precipitation and increases in stress from biotic agents (e.g., bark beetles) would further exacerbate mortality. Our results demonstrate the mechanism by which warmer temperatures have exacerbated recent regional die-off events and background mortality rates. Because of pervasive projected increases in temperature, our results portend widespread increases in the extent and frequency of vegetation die-off. PMID:19365070

Resilience concepts in psychiatry demonstrated with bipolar disorder.

PubMed

Angeler, David G; Allen, Craig R; Persson, Maj-Liz

2018-02-09

The term resilience describes stress-response patterns of subjects across scientific disciplines. In ecology, advances have been made to clearly distinguish resilience definitions based on underlying mechanistic assumptions. Engineering resilience (rebound) is used for describing the ability of subjects to recover from adverse conditions (disturbances), and is the rate of recovery. In contrast, the ecological resilience definition considers a systemic change: when complex systems (including humans) respond to disturbances by reorganizing into a new regime (stable state) where structural and functional aspects have fundamentally changed relative to the prior regime. In this context, resilience is an emergent property of complex systems. We argue that both resilience definitions and uses are appropriate in psychology and psychiatry, but although the differences are subtle, the implications and uses are profoundly different. We borrow from the field of ecology to discuss resilience concepts in the mental health sciences. In psychology and psychiatry, the prevailing view of resilience is adaptation to, coping with, and recovery (engineering resilience) from adverse social and environmental conditions. Ecological resilience may be useful for describing vulnerability, onset, and the irreversibility patterns of mental disorders. We discuss this in the context of bipolar disorder. Rebound, adaptation, and coping are processes that are subsumed within the broader systemic organization of humans, from which ecological resilience emanates. Discerning resilience concepts in psychology and psychiatry has potential for a mechanistically appropriate contextualization of mental disorders at large. This might contribute to a refinement of theory and contextualize clinical practice within the broader systemic functioning of mental illnesses.

What can ecosystems learn? Expanding evolutionary ecology with learning theory.

PubMed

Power, Daniel A; Watson, Richard A; Szathmáry, Eörs; Mills, Rob; Powers, Simon T; Doncaster, C Patrick; Czapp, Błażej

2015-12-08

The structure and organisation of ecological interactions within an ecosystem is modified by the evolution and coevolution of the individual species it contains. Understanding how historical conditions have shaped this architecture is vital for understanding system responses to change at scales from the microbial upwards. However, in the absence of a group selection process, the collective behaviours and ecosystem functions exhibited by the whole community cannot be organised or adapted in a Darwinian sense. A long-standing open question thus persists: Are there alternative organising principles that enable us to understand and predict how the coevolution of the component species creates and maintains complex collective behaviours exhibited by the ecosystem as a whole? Here we answer this question by incorporating principles from connectionist learning, a previously unrelated discipline already using well-developed theories on how emergent behaviours arise in simple networks. Specifically, we show conditions where natural selection on ecological interactions is functionally equivalent to a simple type of connectionist learning, 'unsupervised learning', well-known in neural-network models of cognitive systems to produce many non-trivial collective behaviours. Accordingly, we find that a community can self-organise in a well-defined and non-trivial sense without selection at the community level; its organisation can be conditioned by past experience in the same sense as connectionist learning models habituate to stimuli. This conditioning drives the community to form a distributed ecological memory of multiple past states, causing the community to: a) converge to these states from any random initial composition; b) accurately restore historical compositions from small fragments; c) recover a state composition following disturbance; and d) to correctly classify ambiguous initial compositions according to their similarity to learned compositions. We examine how the formation of alternative stable states alters the community's response to changing environmental forcing, and we identify conditions under which the ecosystem exhibits hysteresis with potential for catastrophic regime shifts. This work highlights the potential of connectionist theory to expand our understanding of evo-eco dynamics and collective ecological behaviours. Within this framework we find that, despite not being a Darwinian unit, ecological communities can behave like connectionist learning systems, creating internal conditions that habituate to past environmental conditions and actively recalling those conditions.

Exploring the Ecological Approach Used by RTLBs in Interventions for Students with Learning and Behaviour Needs

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sebestian, Sandiyao

2013-01-01

The ecological approach, based on the RTLB Toolkit that guides RTLBs in New Zealand, is one of the seven principles used for interventions for students with learning and behaviour concerns. As a result of a paradigm shift moving from a functional limitations perspective to a more inclusive/ecological perspective in 1999, RTLBs have been trained…

Political regimes, political ideology, and self-rated health in Europe: a multilevel analysis.

PubMed

Huijts, Tim; Perkins, Jessica M; Subramanian, S V

2010-07-22

Studies on political ideology and health have found associations between individual ideology and health as well as between ecological measures of political ideology and health. Individual ideology and aggregate measures such as political regimes, however, were never examined simultaneously. Using adjusted logistic multilevel models to analyze data on individuals from 29 European countries and Israel, we found that individual ideology and political regime are independently associated with self-rated health. Individuals with rightwing ideologies report better health than leftwing individuals. Respondents from Eastern Europe and former Soviet republics report poorer health than individuals from social democratic, liberal, Christian conservative, and former Mediterranean dictatorship countries. In contrast to individual ideology and political regimes, country level aggregations of individual ideology are not related to reporting poor health. This study shows that although both individual political ideology and contextual political regime are independently associated with individuals' self-rated health, individual political ideology appears to be more strongly associated with self-rated health than political regime.

Political Regimes, Political Ideology, and Self-Rated Health in Europe: A Multilevel Analysis

PubMed Central

Huijts, Tim; Perkins, Jessica M.; Subramanian, S. V.

2010-01-01

Background Studies on political ideology and health have found associations between individual ideology and health as well as between ecological measures of political ideology and health. Individual ideology and aggregate measures such as political regimes, however, were never examined simultaneously. Methodology/Principal Findings Using adjusted logistic multilevel models to analyze data on individuals from 29 European countries and Israel, we found that individual ideology and political regime are independently associated with self-rated health. Individuals with rightwing ideologies report better health than leftwing individuals. Respondents from Eastern Europe and former Soviet republics report poorer health than individuals from social democratic, liberal, Christian conservative, and former Mediterranean dictatorship countries. In contrast to individual ideology and political regimes, country level aggregations of individual ideology are not related to reporting poor health. Conclusions/Significance This study shows that although both individual political ideology and contextual political regime are independently associated with individuals' self-rated health, individual political ideology appears to be more strongly associated with self-rated health than political regime. PMID:20661433

New hypothesis helps explain elasmobranch "outburst" on Georges Bank in the 1980s.

PubMed

Frisk, M G; Miller, T J; Martell, S J D; Sosebee, K

2008-01-01

Regime shifts are a feature of many ecosystems. During the last 40 years, intensive commercial exploitation and environmental changes have driven substantial shifts in ecosystem structure and function in the northwest Atlantic. In the Georges Bank-southern New England region, commercially important species have declined, and the ecosystem shifted to one dominated by economically undesirable species such as skates and dogfish. Aggregated abundance indices indicate a large increase of small and medium-sized elasmobranchs in the early 1980s following the decline of many commercial species. It has been hypothesized that ecological interactions such as competition and predation within the Georges Bank region were responsible for and are maintaining the "elasmobranch outburst" at the heart of the observed ecosystem shift. We offer an alternative hypothesis invoking population connectivity among winter skate populations such that the observed abundance increase is a result of migratory dynamics, perhaps with the Scotian Shelf (i.e., it is an open population). Here we critically evaluate the survey data for winter skate, the species principally responsible for the increase in total skate abundance during the 1980s on Georges Bank, to assess support for both hypotheses. We show that time series from different surveys within the Georges Bank region exhibit low coherence, indicating that a widespread population increase was not consistently shown by all surveys. Further, we argue that observed length-frequency data for Georges Bank indicate biologically unrealistic population fluctuations if the population is closed. Neither finding supports the elasmobranch outburst hypothesis. In contrast, survey time series for Georges Bank and the Scotian Shelf are negatively correlated, in support of the population connectivity hypothesis. Further, we argue that understanding the mechanisms of ecosystem state changes and population connectivity are needed to make inferences about both the causes and appropriate management responses to large-scale system change.

Direct and indirect effects of climate change on projected future fire regimes in the western United States.

PubMed

Liu, Zhihua; Wimberly, Michael C

2016-01-15

We asked two research questions: (1) What are the relative effects of climate change and climate-driven vegetation shifts on different components of future fire regimes? (2) How does incorporating climate-driven vegetation change into future fire regime projections alter the results compared to projections based only on direct climate effects? We used the western United States (US) as study area to answer these questions. Future (2071-2100) fire regimes were projected using statistical models to predict spatial patterns of occurrence, size and spread for large fires (>400 ha) and a simulation experiment was conducted to compare the direct climatic effects and the indirect effects of climate-driven vegetation change on fire regimes. Results showed that vegetation change amplified climate-driven increases in fire frequency and size and had a larger overall effect on future total burned area in the western US than direct climate effects. Vegetation shifts, which were highly sensitive to precipitation pattern changes, were also a strong determinant of the future spatial pattern of burn rates and had different effects on fire in currently forested and grass/shrub areas. Our results showed that climate-driven vegetation change can exert strong localized effects on fire occurrence and size, which in turn drive regional changes in fire regimes. The effects of vegetation change for projections of the geographic patterns of future fire regimes may be at least as important as the direct effects of climate change, emphasizing that accounting for changing vegetation patterns in models of future climate-fire relationships is necessary to provide accurate projections at continental to global scales. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Ecological opportunity and the evolution of habitat preferences in an arid-zone bird: implications for speciation in a climate-modified landscape

PubMed Central

Norman, Janette A.; Christidis, Les

2016-01-01

Bioclimatic models are widely used to investigate the impacts of climate change on species distributions. Range shifts are expected to occur as species track their current climate niche yet the potential for exploitation of new ecological opportunities that may arise as ecosystems and communities remodel is rarely considered. Here we show that grasswrens of the Amytornis textilis-modestus complex responded to new ecological opportunities in Australia’s arid biome through shifts in habitat preference following the development of chenopod shrublands during the late Plio-Pleistocene. We find evidence of spatially explicit responses to climatically driven landscape changes including changes in niche width and patterns of population growth. Conservation of structural and functional aspects of the ancestral niche appear to have facilitated recent habitat shifts, while demographic responses to late Pleistocene climate change provide evidence for the greater resilience of populations inhabiting the recently evolved chenopod shrubland communities. Similar responses could occur under future climate change in species exposed to novel ecological conditions, or those already occupying spatially heterogeneous landscapes. Mechanistic models that consider structural and functional aspects of the niche along with regional hydro-dynamics may be better predictors of future climate responses in Australia’s arid biome than bioclimatic models alone. PMID:26787111

Dietary change of the rock lobster Jasus lalandii after an ‘invasive’ geographic shift: Effects of size, density and food availability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haley, C. N.; Blamey, L. K.; Atkinson, L. J.; Branch, G. M.

2011-06-01

During the 1990s the rock lobster Jasus lalandii shifted its focus of distribution south-eastwards along the coast of South Africa, to establish a dense population in an area where it was previously rare. This coincided with a marked decrease in the sea urchin Parechinus angulosus, a preferred prey item of J. lalandii and a vital source of shelter for juveniles of the abalone Haliotis midae. The range expansion of lobsters has thus economic and ecological ripple effects. We determined the diets of small (50-65 mm carapace length) and large (>69 mm CL) rock lobsters from gut content analyses, and compared them between three 'lobster invaded' sites and three adjacent 'non-invaded' sites where densities are still low. At the non-invaded sites, diets were collectively heterogeneous but the dietary breadth of individual lobsters was narrow (in contradiction to generally accepted ecological theory), and the lobsters fed mainly on large, individual, mobile, high-energy prey such as sea urchins and large winkles. Conversely, at invaded sites where lobster densities were high, they consumed predominantly small, colonial or sessile low-energy prey such as sponges, barnacles and foliar algae, and the diet was significantly more uniform among individuals, but broader within individuals. This was a direct result of the contrasting benthic community structure of the two areas, and consequent prey availability - itself caused by differences in intensity of rock-lobster predation. Cannibalism was unexpectedly greater at non-invaded sites, possibly as a result of lobsters being larger there. The diet of small and large lobsters also differed significantly. Large rock lobsters predominantly consumed large individual prey such as lobsters, urchins and crabs, while small rock lobsters ate mainly colonial, sessile prey such as sponges and barnacles, and small prey such as tiny winkles and crustaceans. Dietary selectivity indices revealed that algae and sponges were negatively selected (avoided) in non-invaded areas but positively or neutrally selected in invaded areas. These dietary differences have important ramifications not only for the lobster populations but also for the structure and functioning of the radically different communities that have developed in invaded areas, reflecting a regime shift induced by lobster predation.

Ecological shift and resilience in China's lake systems during the last two centuries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Ke; Dong, Xuhui; Yang, Xiangdong; Kattel, Giri; Zhao, Yanjie; Wang, Rong

2018-06-01

The worldwide decline of wetland ecosystems calls for an urgent reassessment of their current status from a resilience perspective. Understanding the trajectories of changes that have produced the current situation is fundamental for assessing system resilience. Here, we examine long-term dynamics of wetland ecosystem change by reviewing paleoecological records from 11 representative lakes in China. We identify unprecedented change in alga communities in the context of last two centuries. Striking ecological shifts have occurred in all lakes, yet with spatial and temporal differences. The long-term trajectories of change in diatom species composition and structure indicate gradually eroded system resilience. These ecological shifts were shaped by socio-economic activities as China transformed from a rural agricultural to an industrialized society within the last several decades, during which multiple drivers have accumulated and acted synergistically. The balance between ecosystem and society, which appeared to exist for thousands of years, was broken by increasing population, new technology, and urbanization since the 1980s. The consequences are the emergence of new positive feedbacks with the potential to drive the coupled systems into undesirable states. By linking long-term social and ecological change at a regional scale, our study provides a novel contribution to the understanding of lake ecosystems resilience in present-day China. We argue that sustaining wetland ecosystems requires integrated approaches that incorporate a deeper understanding of social-ecological dynamics over decadal-centennial timescales to address the complex underlying mechanisms leading to the current degradation.

Gravel-bed river floodplains are the ecological nexus of glaciated mountain landscapes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hauer, F. Richard; Locke, Harvey; Dreitz, Victoria; Hebblewhite, Mark; Lowe, Winsor; Muhlfeld, Clint C.; Nelson, Cara; Proctor, Michael F.; Rood, Stewart B.

2016-01-01

Gravel-bed river floodplains in mountain landscapes disproportionately concentrate diverse habitats, nutrient cycling, productivity of biota, and species interactions. Although stream ecologists know that river channel and floodplain habitats used by aquatic organisms are maintained by hydrologic regimes that mobilize gravel-bed sediments, terrestrial ecologists have largely been unaware of the importance of floodplain structures and processes to the life requirements of a wide variety of species. We provide insight into gravel-bed rivers as the ecological nexus of glaciated mountain landscapes. We show why gravel-bed river floodplains are the primary arena where interactions take place among aquatic, avian, and terrestrial species from microbes to grizzly bears and provide essential connectivity as corridors for movement for both aquatic and terrestrial species. Paradoxically, gravel-bed river floodplains are also disproportionately unprotected where human developments are concentrated. Structural modifications to floodplains such as roads, railways, and housing and hydrologicaltering hydroelectric or water storage dams have severe impacts to floodplain habitat diversity and productivity, restrict local and regional connectivity, and reduce the resilience of both aquatic and terrestrial species, including adaptation to climate change. To be effective, conservation efforts in glaciated mountain landscapes intended to benefit the widest variety of organisms need a paradigm shift that has gravel-bed rivers and their floodplains as the central focus and that prioritizes the maintenance or restoration of the intact structure and processes of these critically important systems throughout their length and breadth.

Gravel-bed river floodplains are the ecological nexus of glaciated mountain landscapes.

PubMed

Hauer, F Richard; Locke, Harvey; Dreitz, Victoria J; Hebblewhite, Mark; Lowe, Winsor H; Muhlfeld, Clint C; Nelson, Cara R; Proctor, Michael F; Rood, Stewart B

2016-06-01

Gravel-bed river floodplains in mountain landscapes disproportionately concentrate diverse habitats, nutrient cycling, productivity of biota, and species interactions. Although stream ecologists know that river channel and floodplain habitats used by aquatic organisms are maintained by hydrologic regimes that mobilize gravel-bed sediments, terrestrial ecologists have largely been unaware of the importance of floodplain structures and processes to the life requirements of a wide variety of species. We provide insight into gravel-bed rivers as the ecological nexus of glaciated mountain landscapes. We show why gravel-bed river floodplains are the primary arena where interactions take place among aquatic, avian, and terrestrial species from microbes to grizzly bears and provide essential connectivity as corridors for movement for both aquatic and terrestrial species. Paradoxically, gravel-bed river floodplains are also disproportionately unprotected where human developments are concentrated. Structural modifications to floodplains such as roads, railways, and housing and hydrologic-altering hydroelectric or water storage dams have severe impacts to floodplain habitat diversity and productivity, restrict local and regional connectivity, and reduce the resilience of both aquatic and terrestrial species, including adaptation to climate change. To be effective, conservation efforts in glaciated mountain landscapes intended to benefit the widest variety of organisms need a paradigm shift that has gravel-bed rivers and their floodplains as the central focus and that prioritizes the maintenance or restoration of the intact structure and processes of these critically important systems throughout their length and breadth.

Gravel-bed river floodplains are the ecological nexus of glaciated mountain landscapes

PubMed Central

Hauer, F. Richard; Locke, Harvey; Dreitz, Victoria J.; Hebblewhite, Mark; Lowe, Winsor H.; Muhlfeld, Clint C.; Nelson, Cara R.; Proctor, Michael F.; Rood, Stewart B.

2016-01-01

Gravel-bed river floodplains in mountain landscapes disproportionately concentrate diverse habitats, nutrient cycling, productivity of biota, and species interactions. Although stream ecologists know that river channel and floodplain habitats used by aquatic organisms are maintained by hydrologic regimes that mobilize gravel-bed sediments, terrestrial ecologists have largely been unaware of the importance of floodplain structures and processes to the life requirements of a wide variety of species. We provide insight into gravel-bed rivers as the ecological nexus of glaciated mountain landscapes. We show why gravel-bed river floodplains are the primary arena where interactions take place among aquatic, avian, and terrestrial species from microbes to grizzly bears and provide essential connectivity as corridors for movement for both aquatic and terrestrial species. Paradoxically, gravel-bed river floodplains are also disproportionately unprotected where human developments are concentrated. Structural modifications to floodplains such as roads, railways, and housing and hydrologic-altering hydroelectric or water storage dams have severe impacts to floodplain habitat diversity and productivity, restrict local and regional connectivity, and reduce the resilience of both aquatic and terrestrial species, including adaptation to climate change. To be effective, conservation efforts in glaciated mountain landscapes intended to benefit the widest variety of organisms need a paradigm shift that has gravel-bed rivers and their floodplains as the central focus and that prioritizes the maintenance or restoration of the intact structure and processes of these critically important systems throughout their length and breadth. PMID:27386570

Sustainability Metrics: The San Luis Basin Project

EPA Science Inventory

Sustainability is about promoting humanly desirable dynamic regimes of the environment. Metrics: ecological footprint, net regional product, exergy, emergy, and Fisher Information. Adaptive management: (1) metrics assess problem, (2) specific problem identified, and (3) managemen...

Descriptors of natural thermal regimes in streams and their responsiveness to change in the Pacific Northwest of North America

USGS Publications Warehouse

Arismendi, Ivan; Johnson, Sherri L.; Dunham, Jason B.; Haggerty, Roy

2013-01-01

1. Temperature is a major driver of ecological processes in stream ecosystems, yet the dynamics of thermal regimes remain poorly described. Most work has focused on relatively simple descriptors that fail to capture the full range of conditions that characterise thermal regimes of streams across seasons or throughout the year. 2. To more completely describe thermal regimes, we developed several descriptors of magnitude, variability, frequency, duration and timing of thermal events throughout a year. We evaluated how these descriptors change over time using long-term (1979–2009), continuous temperature data from five relatively undisturbed cold-water streams in western Oregon, U.S.A. In addition to trends for each descriptor, we evaluated similarities among them, as well as patterns of spatial coherence, and temporal synchrony. 3. Using different groups of descriptors, we were able to more fully capture distinct aspects of the full range of variability in thermal regimes across space and time. A subset of descriptors showed both higher coherence and synchrony and, thus, an appropriate level of responsiveness to examine evidence of regional climatic influences on thermal regimes. Most notably, daily minimum values during winter–spring were the most responsive descriptors to potential climatic influences. 4. Overall, thermal regimes in streams we studied showed high frequency and low variability of cold temperatures during the cold-water period in winter and spring, and high frequency and high variability of warm temperatures during the warm-water period in summer and autumn. The cold and warm periods differed in the distribution of events with a higher frequency and longer duration of warm events in summer than cold events in winter. The cold period exhibited lower variability in the duration of events, but showed more variability in timing. 5. In conclusion, our results highlight the importance of a year-round perspective in identifying the most responsive characteristics or descriptors of thermal regimes in streams. The descriptors we provide herein can be applied across hydro-ecological regions to evaluate spatial and temporal patterns in thermal regimes. Evaluation of coherence and synchrony of different components of thermal regimes can facilitate identification of impacts of regional climate variability or local human or natural influences.

To Be Accountable in Neoliberal Times: An Exploration of Educational Policy in Ecuador

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Aviles, Enma Campozano; Simons, Maarten

2013-01-01

The ascendancy of neoliberal modes of governing has caused a shift in accountability practices in the public sector, including in the field of education. This shift can be observed in the accountability regimes introduced into education systems around the world. They reflect a strong focus on quality assurance/control and efficiency in order for…

Transformative Shifts in Art History Teaching: The Impact of Standards-Based Assessment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ormond, Barbara

2011-01-01

This article examines pedagogical shifts in art history teaching that have developed as a response to the implementation of a standards-based assessment regime. The specific characteristics of art history standards-based assessment in the context of New Zealand secondary schools are explained to demonstrate how an exacting form of assessment has…

Long-term demographic trends in a fire-suppressed mixed-conifer forest

Treesearch

Carrie R. Levine; Flora Krivak-Tetley; Natalie S. van Doorn; Jolie-Anne S. Ansley; John J. Battles

2016-01-01

In the western United States, forests are experiencing novel environmental conditions related to a changing climate and a suppression of the historical fire regime. Mixed-conifer forests, considered resilient to disturbance due to their heterogeneity in structure and composition, appear to be shifting to a more homogeneous state, but the timescale of these shifts is...

Modeling effects of climate change and fire management on western white pine (Pinus monticola) in the northern Rocky Mountains, USA

Treesearch

Rachel A. Loehman; Jason A. Clark; Robert E. Keane

2011-01-01

Climate change is projected to profoundly influence vegetation patterns and community compositions, either directly through increased species mortality and shifts in species distributions or indirectly through disturbance dynamics such as increased wildfire activity and extent, shifting fire regimes, and pathogenesis. Mountainous landscapes have been shown to be...

Per Aspera ad Astra: Through Complex Population Modeling to Predictive Theory.

PubMed

Topping, Christopher J; Alrøe, Hugo Fjelsted; Farrell, Katharine N; Grimm, Volker

2015-11-01

Population models in ecology are often not good at predictions, even if they are complex and seem to be realistic enough. The reason for this might be that Occam's razor, which is key for minimal models exploring ideas and concepts, has been too uncritically adopted for more realistic models of systems. This can tie models too closely to certain situations, thereby preventing them from predicting the response to new conditions. We therefore advocate a new kind of parsimony to improve the application of Occam's razor. This new parsimony balances two contrasting strategies for avoiding errors in modeling: avoiding inclusion of nonessential factors (false inclusions) and avoiding exclusion of sometimes-important factors (false exclusions). It involves a synthesis of traditional modeling and analysis, used to describe the essentials of mechanistic relationships, with elements that are included in a model because they have been reported to be or can arguably be assumed to be important under certain conditions. The resulting models should be able to reflect how the internal organization of populations change and thereby generate representations of the novel behavior necessary for complex predictions, including regime shifts.

Biogeochemical processes on tree islands in the greater everglades: Initiating a new paradigm

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wetzel, P.R.; Sklar, Fred H.; Coronado, C.A.; Troxler, T.G.; Krupa, S.L.; Sullivan, P.L.; Ewe, S.; Price, R.M.; Newman, S.; Orem, W.H.

2011-01-01

Scientists' understanding of the role of tree islands in the Everglades has evolved from a plant community of minor biogeochemical importance to a plant community recognized as the driving force for localized phosphorus accumulation within the landscape. Results from this review suggest that tree transpiration, nutrient infiltration from the soil surface, and groundwater flow create a soil zone of confluence where nutrients and salts accumulate under the head of a tree island during dry periods. Results also suggest accumulated salts and nutrients are flushed downstream by regional water flows during wet periods. That trees modulate their environment to create biogeochemical hot spots and strong nutrient gradients is a significant ecological paradigm shift in the understanding of the biogeochemical processes in the Everglades. In terms of island sustainability, this new paradigm suggests the need for distinct dry-wet cycles as well as a hydrologic regime that supports tree survival. Restoration of historic tree islands needs further investigation but the creation of functional tree islands is promising. Copyright ?? 2011 Taylor & Francis Group, LLC.

Biologically Based Methods for Pest Management in Agriculture under Changing Climates: Challenges and Future Directions.

PubMed

Chidawanyika, Frank; Mudavanhu, Pride; Nyamukondiwa, Casper

2012-11-09

The current changes in global climatic regimes present a significant societal challenge, affecting in all likelihood insect physiology, biochemistry, biogeography and population dynamics. With the increasing resistance of many insect pest species to chemical insecticides and an increasing organic food market, pest control strategies are slowly shifting towards more sustainable, ecologically sound and economically viable options. Biologically based pest management strategies present such opportunities through predation or parasitism of pests and plant direct or indirect defense mechanisms that can all be important components of sustainable integrated pest management programs. Inevitably, the efficacy of biological control systems is highly dependent on natural enemy-prey interactions, which will likely be modified by changing climates. Therefore, knowledge of how insect pests and their natural enemies respond to climate variation is of fundamental importance in understanding biological insect pest management under global climate change. Here, we discuss biological control, its challenges under climate change scenarios and how increased global temperatures will require adaptive management strategies to cope with changing status of insects and their natural enemies.

Ocean acidification reduces demersal zooplankton that reside in tropical coral reefs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, Joy N.; de'Ath, Glenn; Richter, Claudio; Cornils, Astrid; Hall-Spencer, Jason M.; Fabricius, Katharina E.

2016-12-01

The in situ effects of ocean acidification on zooplankton communities remain largely unexplored. Using natural volcanic CO2 seep sites around tropical coral communities, we show a threefold reduction in the biomass of demersal zooplankton in high-CO2 sites compared with sites with ambient CO2. Differences were consistent across two reefs and three expeditions. Abundances were reduced in most taxonomic groups. There were no regime shifts in zooplankton community composition and no differences in fatty acid composition between CO2 levels, suggesting that ocean acidification affects the food quantity but not the quality for nocturnal plankton feeders. Emergence trap data show that the observed reduction in demersal plankton may be partly attributable to altered habitat. Ocean acidification changes coral community composition from branching to massive bouldering coral species, and our data suggest that bouldering corals represent inferior daytime shelter for demersal zooplankton. Since zooplankton represent a major source of nutrients for corals, fish and other planktivores, this ecological feedback may represent an additional mechanism of how coral reefs will be affected by ocean acidification.

Trade-offs in osmoregulation and parallel shifts in molecular function follow ecological transitions to freshwater in the Alewife

USGS Publications Warehouse

Velotta, Jonathan P.; McCormick, Stephen; Schultz, Eric T.

2015-01-01

Adaptation to freshwater may be expected to reduce performance in seawater because these environments represent opposing selective regimes. We tested for such a trade-off in populations of the Alewife (Alosa pseudoharengus). Alewives are ancestrally anadromous, and multiple populations have been independently restricted to freshwater (landlocked). We conducted salinity challenge experiments, whereby juvenile Alewives from one anadromous and multiple landlocked populations were exposed to freshwater and seawater on acute and acclimation timescales. In response to acute salinity challenge trials, independently derived landlocked populations varied in the degree to which seawater tolerance has been lost. In laboratory-acclimation experiments, landlocked Alewives exhibited improved freshwater tolerance, which was correlated with reductions in seawater tolerance and hypo-osmotic balance, suggesting that trade-offs in osmoregulation may be associated with local adaptation to freshwater. We detected differentiation between life-history forms in the expression of an ion-uptake gene (NHE3), and in gill Na+/K+-ATPase activity. Trade-offs in osmoregulation, therefore, may be mediated by differentiation in ion-uptake and salt-secreting pathways.

Frequency-locked chaotic opto-RF oscillator.

PubMed

Thorette, Aurélien; Romanelli, Marco; Brunel, Marc; Vallet, Marc

2016-06-15

A driven opto-RF oscillator, consisting of a dual-frequency laser (DFL) submitted to frequency-shifted feedback, is experimentally and numerically studied in a chaotic regime. Precise control of the reinjection strength and detuning permits isolation of a parameter region of bounded-phase chaos, where the opto-RF oscillator is frequency-locked to the master oscillator, in spite of chaotic phase and intensity oscillations. Robust experimental evidence of this synchronization regime is found, and phase noise spectra allow us to compare phase-locking and bounded-phase chaos regimes. In particular, it is found that the long-term phase stability of the master oscillator is well transferred to the opto-RF oscillator, even in the chaotic regime.

Which way will the circulation shift in a changing climate? Possible nonlinearity of extratropical cloud feedbacks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tandon, Neil F.; Cane, Mark A.

2017-06-01

In a suite of idealized experiments with the Community Atmospheric Model version 3 coupled to a slab ocean, we show that the atmospheric circulation response to CO2 increase is sensitive to extratropical cloud feedback that is potentially nonlinear. Doubling CO2 produces a poleward shift of the Southern Hemisphere (SH) midlatitude jet that is driven primarily by cloud shortwave feedback and modulated by ice albedo feedback, in agreement with earlier studies. More surprisingly, for CO2 increases smaller than 25 %, the SH jet shifts equatorward. Nonlinearities are also apparent in the Northern Hemisphere, but with less zonal symmetry. Baroclinic instability theory and climate feedback analysis suggest that as the CO2 forcing amplitude is reduced, there is a transition from a regime in which cloud and circulation changes are largely decoupled to a regime in which they are highly coupled. In the dynamically coupled regime, there is an apparent cancellation between cloud feedback due to warming and cloud feedback due to the shifting jet, and this allows the ice albedo feedback to dominate in the high latitudes. The extent to which dynamical coupling effects exceed thermodynamic forcing effects is strongly influenced by cloud microphysics: an alternate model configuration with slightly increased cloud liquid (LIQ) produces poleward jet shifts regardless of the amplitude of CO2 forcing. Altering the cloud microphysics also produces substantial spread in the circulation response to CO2 doubling: the LIQ configuration produces a poleward SH jet shift approximately twice that produced under the default configuration. Analysis of large ensembles of the Canadian Earth System Model version 2 demonstrates that nonlinear, cloud-coupled jet shifts are also possible in comprehensive models. We still expect a poleward trend in SH jet latitude for timescales on which CO2 increases by more than 25 %. But on shorter timescales, our results give good reason to expect significant equatorward deviations. We also discuss the implications for understanding the circulation response to small external forcings from other sources, such as the solar cycle.

Ecological genomics in Xanthomonas: the nature of genetic adaptation with homologous recombination and host shifts.

PubMed

Huang, Chao-Li; Pu, Pei-Hua; Huang, Hao-Jen; Sung, Huang-Mo; Liaw, Hung-Jiun; Chen, Yi-Min; Chen, Chien-Ming; Huang, Ming-Ban; Osada, Naoki; Gojobori, Takashi; Pai, Tun-Wen; Chen, Yu-Tin; Hwang, Chi-Chuan; Chiang, Tzen-Yuh

2015-03-15

Comparative genomics provides insights into the diversification of bacterial species. Bacterial speciation usually takes place with lasting homologous recombination, which not only acts as a cohering force between diverging lineages but brings advantageous alleles favored by natural selection, and results in ecologically distinct species, e.g., frequent host shift in Xanthomonas pathogenic to various plants. Using whole-genome sequences, we examined the genetic divergence in Xanthomonas campestris that infected Brassicaceae, and X. citri, pathogenic to a wider host range. Genetic differentiation between two incipient races of X. citri pv. mangiferaeindicae was attributable to a DNA fragment introduced by phages. In contrast to most portions of the genome that had nearly equivalent levels of genetic divergence between subspecies as a result of the accumulation of point mutations, 10% of the core genome involving with homologous recombination contributed to the diversification in Xanthomonas, as revealed by the correlation between homologous recombination and genomic divergence. Interestingly, 179 genes were under positive selection; 98 (54.7%) of these genes were involved in homologous recombination, indicating that foreign genetic fragments may have caused the adaptive diversification, especially in lineages with nutritional transitions. Homologous recombination may have provided genetic materials for the natural selection, and host shifts likely triggered ecological adaptation in Xanthomonas. To a certain extent, we observed positive selection nevertheless contributed to ecological divergence beyond host shifting. Altogether, mediated with lasting gene flow, species formation in Xanthomonas was likely governed by natural selection that played a key role in helping the deviating populations to explore novel niches (hosts) or respond to environmental cues, subsequently triggering species diversification.

Managing small-scale commercial fisheries for adaptive capacity: insights from dynamic social-ecological drivers of change in Monterey Bay.

PubMed

Aguilera, Stacy E; Cole, Jennifer; Finkbeiner, Elena M; Le Cornu, Elodie; Ban, Natalie C; Carr, Mark H; Cinner, Joshua E; Crowder, Larry B; Gelcich, Stefan; Hicks, Christina C; Kittinger, John N; Martone, Rebecca; Malone, Daniel; Pomeroy, Carrie; Starr, Richard M; Seram, Sanah; Zuercher, Rachel; Broad, Kenneth

2015-01-01

Globally, small-scale fisheries are influenced by dynamic climate, governance, and market drivers, which present social and ecological challenges and opportunities. It is difficult to manage fisheries adaptively for fluctuating drivers, except to allow participants to shift effort among multiple fisheries. Adapting to changing conditions allows small-scale fishery participants to survive economic and environmental disturbances and benefit from optimal conditions. This study explores the relative influence of large-scale drivers on shifts in effort and outcomes among three closely linked fisheries in Monterey Bay since the Magnuson-Stevens Fisheries Conservation and Management Act of 1976. In this region, Pacific sardine (Sardinops sagax), northern anchovy (Engraulis mordax), and market squid (Loligo opalescens) fisheries comprise a tightly linked system where shifting focus among fisheries is a key element to adaptive capacity and reduced social and ecological vulnerability. Using a cluster analysis of landings, we identify four modes from 1974 to 2012 that are dominated (i.e., a given species accounting for the plurality of landings) by squid, sardine, anchovy, or lack any dominance, and seven points of transition among these periods. This approach enables us to determine which drivers are associated with each mode and each transition. Overall, we show that market and climate drivers are predominantly attributed to dominance transitions. Model selection of external drivers indicates that governance phases, reflected as perceived abundance, dictate long-term outcomes. Our findings suggest that globally, small-scale fishery managers should consider enabling shifts in effort among fisheries and retaining existing flexibility, as adaptive capacity is a critical determinant for social and ecological resilience.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Vernon, Christopher R.; Arntzen, Evan V.; Richmond, Marshall C.

Assessing the environmental benefits of proposed flow modification to large rivers provides invaluable insight into future hydropower project operations and relicensing activities. Providing a means to quantitatively define flow-ecology relationships is integral in establishing flow regimes that are mutually beneficial to power production and ecological needs. To compliment this effort an opportunity to create versatile tools that can be applied to broad geographic areas has been presented. In particular, integration with efforts standardized within the ecological limits of hydrologic alteration (ELOHA) is highly advantageous (Poff et al. 2010). This paper presents a geographic information system (GIS) framework for large rivermore » classification that houses a base geomorphic classification that is both flexible and accurate, allowing for full integration with other hydrologic models focused on addressing ELOHA efforts. A case study is also provided that integrates publically available National Hydrography Dataset Plus Version 2 (NHDPlusV2) data, Modular Aquatic Simulation System two-dimensional (MASS2) hydraulic data, and field collected data into the framework to produce a suite of flow-ecology related outputs. The case study objective was to establish areas of optimal juvenile salmonid rearing habitat under varying flow regimes throughout an impounded portion of the lower Snake River, USA (Figure 1) as an indicator to determine sites where the potential exists to create additional shallow water habitat. Additionally, an alternative hydrologic classification useable throughout the contiguous United States which can be coupled with the geomorphic aspect of this framework is also presented. This framework provides the user with the ability to integrate hydrologic and ecologic data into the base geomorphic aspect of this framework within a geographic information system (GIS) to output spatiotemporally variable flow-ecology relationship scenarios.« less

Modeling the effects of potential salinity shifts on the recovery of striped bass in the Savannah River estuary, Georgia-South Carolina, United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reinert, T.R.; Peterson, J.T.

2008-01-01

Increased salinity in spawning and nursery grounds in the Savannah River estuary was cited as the primary cause of a 97% decrease in adult striped bass (Morone saxatilis) and a concomitant 96% decrease in striped bass egg production. Restoration efforts focused on environmental remediation and stock enhancement have resulted in restored salinity patterns and increased egg and adult abundances. However, future water needs or harbor development may preclude further recovery by reducing freshwater inflow or increasing salinity intrusion. To assess the effect of potential changes in the salinity regime, we developed models relating discharge, tidal phase, and salinity to striped bass egg and early larval survival and re-cast these in a quantitative Bayesian belief network. The model indicated that a small upstream shift (???1.67 km) in the salinity regime would have the least impact on striped bass early life history survival, whereas shifts >1.67 km would have progressively larger impacts, with a 8.33-km shift potentially reducing our estimated survival probability by >28%. Such an impact could have cumulative and long-term detrimental effects on the recovery of the Savannah River striped bass population. The available salinity data were collected during average and low flows, so our model represents some typical and some extreme conditions during a striped bass spawning season. Our model is a relatively simplistic, "first-order" attempt at evaluating potential effects of changes in the Savannah River estuarine salinity regime and points to areas of concern and potential future research. ?? 2008 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC.

Benthic-planktonic coupling, regime shifts, and whole-lake primary production in shallow lakes.

PubMed

Genkai-Kato, Motomi; Vadeboncoeur, Yvonne; Liboriussen, Lone; Jeppesen, Erik

2012-03-01

Alternative stable states in shallow lakes are typically characterized by submerged macrophyte (clear-water state) or phytoplankton (turbid state) dominance. However, a clear-water state may occur in eutrophic lakes even when macrophytes are absent. To test whether sediment algae could cause a regime shift in the absence of macrophytes, we developed a model of benthic (periphyton) and planktonic (phytoplankton) primary production using parameters derived from a shallow macrophyte-free lake that shifted from a turbid to a clear-water state following fish removal (biomanipulation). The model includes a negative feedback effect of periphyton on phosphorus (P) release from sediments. This in turn induces a positive feedback between phytoplankton production and P release. Scenarios incorporating a gradient of external P loading rates revealed that (1) periphyton and phytoplankton both contributed substantially to whole-lake production over a broad range of external P loading in a clear-water state; (2) during the clear-water state, the loss of benthic production was gradually replaced by phytoplankton production, leaving whole-lake production largely unchanged; (3) the responses of lakes to biomanipulation and increased external P loading were both dependent on lake morphometry; and (4) the capacity of periphyton to buffer the effects of increased external P loading and maintain a clear-water state was highly sensitive to relationships between light availability at the sediment surface and the of P release. Our model suggests a mechanism for the persistence of alternative states in shallow macrophyte-free lakes and demonstrates that regime shifts may trigger profound changes in ecosystem structure and function.

[Heath and political regimes: presidential or parliamentary government for Colombia?].

PubMed

Idrovo, Alvaro J

2007-01-01

Changing the presidential regime for a parliamentarian one is currently be-ing discussed in Colombia. This preliminary study explores the potential effects on health of both presidential and parliamentary regimes by using world-wide data. An ecological study was undertaken using countries from which comparable information concerning life-expectancy at birth, political regime, economic development, inequality in income, social capital (as measured by general-ised trust or Corruption Perceptions Index), political rights, civil freedom and cultural diversity could be obtained. Life-expectancy at birth and macro-determinants were compared between both political regimes. The co-relationship between these macro-determinants was estimated and the relationship between political regimen and life-expectancy at birth was estimated using robust regression. Crude analysis revealed that parliamentary countries have greater life-expectancy at birth than countries having a presidential regime. Significant co-relationships between all macro-determinants were observed. No differential effects were observed between both political regimes regarding life-expectancy at birth in multiple robust regressions. There is no evidence that presidential or parliamentary regimes provide greater levels of health for the population. It is suggested that public health policies be focused on other macro-determinants having more known effects on health, such as income inequality.

Ten year change in forest succession and composition measured by remote sensing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hall, Forrest G.; Botkin, Daniel B.; Strebel, Donald E.; Woods, Kerry K.; Goetz, Scott J.

1987-01-01

Vegetation dynamics and changes in ecological patterns were measured by remote sensing over a 10 year period (1973 to 1983) for 148,406 landscape elements, covering more than 500 sq km in a protected forested wilderness. Quantitative measurements were made possible by methods to detect ecologically meaningful landscape units; these allowed measurement of ecological transition frequencies and calculation of expected recurrence times. Measured ecological transition frequencies reveal boreal forest wilderness as spatially heterogeneous and highly dynamic, with one-sixth of the area in clearings and early successional stages, consistent with recent postulates about the spatial and temporal patterns of natural ecosystems. Differences between managed forest areas and a protected wilderness allow assessment of different management regimes.

Georgy Gause's shift from ecology and evolutionary biology to antibiotics research: reasons, objectives, circumstances.

PubMed

Kodash, Nataliia; Fischer, Martin

2018-04-01

Georgy Gause (1910-1986) is best known for his contribution to ecology and evolutionary theory. His book "The Struggle for Existence" (1934) inspired generations of ecologists. Yet his scientific interests were diverse, embracing many aspects of the life sciences and medicine. The most notable shift in his research took place in the early 1940s when he began to study antibiotics and discovered Gramicidin S. Superficially, this shift looked like an attempt to switch from purely theoretical to applied research during the years of World War II, but Gause's decision may also have been seriously affected by the "Great Purge" and the growth of Lysenkoism. Personal factors played a significant role in his career too. In this article, we propose four factors which drove Gause to switch his focus from ecology to antibiotics: the inner logic of his scientific research, Stalin's science policy and the growth of Lysenkoism, the sociopolitical influence of World War II, and personal relationships. We will also show how all these factors are interdependent to some extent.

Recent Responses of Western North American Forests and Hydroclimate to Pacific Storm Track Position and Intensity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dannenberg, M. P.; Wise, E.

2017-12-01

Much of the precipitation delivered to western North America arrives during the October to March cool season via midlatitude Pacific storm tracks, which may shift in the future due to climate change. Using historical climate, tree-ring, and remote sensing data, we assessed the sensitivity of western North American hydroclimate and ecosystems to the position and intensity of cool-season Pacific storm tracks. From 1980-2014, mean annual cool-season storm tracks entered western North America between approximately 41°N to 53°N, with substantial interannual variability in both the position and intensity of the storm tracks. We examined relationships between storm tracks and two hydroclimatic variables: the cool-season standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index and April snow water equivalent. We also assessed how historical storm track variability affected ecosystems using forest growth estimates from a large tree-ring network as well as land surface phenology and wildfire estimates from AVHRR and Landsat, respectively. Cool-season moisture supply and snowpack responded strongly to storm track position, with positive correlations to storm track latitude in eastern Alaska and northwestern Canada but negative correlations in the northwestern U.S. These hydroclimatic impacts were largely driven by the latitudinal position of storm tracks during the "shoulder" seasons (i.e., autumn and early spring). Ecosystems of the western U.S. tended to be greener and more productive following winters with south-shifted storm tracks, while Canadian ecosystems were greener in years when the cool-season storm track was shifted to the north. On average, larger areas of the northwestern U.S. were burned by moderate to high severity wildfires when storm tracks were displaced north, and the average burn area per fire also tended to be higher in years with north-shifted storm tracks. Assuming that these historical relationships continue to hold under future climate scenarios, our results suggest that projected long-term shifts of Pacific storm tracks over the 21st century would likely alter hydroclimatic and ecological regimes in western North America, particularly in the northwestern U.S., where moisture supply and ecosystem processes are highly sensitive to the position of cool-season storm tracks.

The Ecology of Minority Languages in Melbourne

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bradshaw, Julie

2013-01-01

Melbourne's linguistic and cultural diversity has continually changed in response to global economic forces and shifting patterns of war and conflict. Immigrant and refugee communities have arrived with different skills, educational and professional profiles, and cultural and religious values. The ecological niches of three contrasting linguistic…

People and water: Exploring the social-ecological condition of watersheds of the United States

EPA Science Inventory

A recent paradigm shift from purely biophysical towards social-ecological assessment of watersheds has been proposed to understand, monitor, and manipulate the myriad interactions between human well-being and the ecosystem services that watersheds provide. However, large-scale, q...

OXYGEN REGIMES IN ESTUARIES: IMAGING ANOXIA THROUGH NORMOXIA

EPA Science Inventory

The U.S. EPA, National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory, Atlantic Ecology Division, is developing empirical stressor-response models linking nitrogen loading to near-bottom dissolved oxygen (DO) concentrations in semi-enclosed coastal systems. Sediment profil...

Cultural Change: The How and the Why.

PubMed

Varnum, Michael E W; Grossmann, Igor

2017-11-01

More than half a century of cross-cultural research has demonstrated group-level differences in psychological and behavioral phenomena, from values to attention to neural responses. However, cultures are not static, with several specific changes documented for cultural products, practices, and values. How and why do societies change? Here we juxtapose theory and insights from cultural evolution and social ecology. Evolutionary approaches enable an understanding of the how of cultural change, suggesting transmission mechanisms by which the contents of culture may change. Ecological approaches provide insights into the why of cultural change: They identify specific environmental pressures, which evoke shifts in psychology and thereby enable greater precision in predictions of specific cultural changes based on changes in ecological conditions. Complementary insights from the ecological and cultural evolutionary approaches can jointly clarify the process by which cultures change. We end by discussing the relevance of cultural change research for the contemporary societal shifts and by highlighting several critical challenges and future directions for the emerging field of cross-temporal research on culture and psychology.

Nonlinear focal shift beyond the geometrical focus in moderately focused acoustic beams.

PubMed

Camarena, Francisco; Adrián-Martínez, Silvia; Jiménez, Noé; Sánchez-Morcillo, Víctor

2013-08-01

The phenomenon of the displacement of the position along the axis of the pressure, intensity, and radiation force maxima of focused acoustic beams under increasing driving voltages (nonlinear focal shift) is studied for the case of a moderately focused beam. The theoretical and experimental results show the existence of this shift along the axis when the initial pressure in the transducer increases until the acoustic field reaches the fully developed nonlinear regime of propagation. Experimental data show that at high amplitudes and for moderate focusing, the position of the on-axis pressure maximum and radiation force maximum can surpass the geometrical focal length. On the contrary, the on-axis pressure minimum approaches the transducer under increasing driving voltages, increasing the distance between the positive and negative peak pressure in the beam. These results are in agreement with numerical KZK model predictions and the existed data of other authors and can be explained according to the effect of self-refraction characteristic of the nonlinear regime of propagation.

Measurements of the intrinsic quantum efficiency and absorption length of tetraphenyl butadiene thin films in the vacuum ultraviolet regime

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benson, Christopher; Gann, Gabriel Orebi; Gehman, Victor

2018-04-01

A key enabling technology for many liquid noble gas (LNG) detectors is the use of the common wavelength shifting medium tetraphenyl butadiene (TPB). TPB thin films are used to shift ultraviolet scintillation light into the visible spectrum for detection and event reconstruction. Understanding the wavelength shifting efficiency and optical properties of these films are critical aspects in detector performance and modeling and hence in the ultimate physics sensitivity of such experiments. This article presents the first measurements of the room-temperature microphysical quantum efficiency for vacuum-deposited TPB thin films - a result that is independent of the optics of the TPB or substrate. Also presented are measurements of the absorption length in the vacuum ultraviolet regime, the secondary re-emission efficiency, and more precise results for the "black-box" efficiency across a broader spectrum of wavelengths than previous results. The low-wavelength sensitivity, in particular, would allow construction of LNG scintillator detectors with lighter elements (Ne, He) to target light mass WIMPs.

Climatic controls on hurricane patterns: a 1200-y near-annual record from Lighthouse Reef, Belize

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Denommee, K. C.; Bentley, S. J.; Droxler, A. W.

2014-01-01

Tropical cyclones (TCs) are powerful agents of destruction, and understanding climatic controls on TC patterns is of great importance. Over timescales of seasons to several decades, relationships among TC track, frequency, intensity and basin-scale climate changes are well documented by instrumental records. Over centuries to millennia, climate-shift influence on TC regimes remains poorly constrained. To better understand these relationships, records from multiple locations of TC strikes spanning millennia with high temporal resolution are required, but such records are rare. Here we report on a highly detailed sedimentary proxy record of paleo-TC strikes from the Blue Hole of Lighthouse Reef, Belize. Our findings provide an important addition to other high-resolution records, which collectively demonstrate that shifts between active and inactive TC regimes have occurred contemporaneously with shifts hemispheric-scale oceanic and atmospheric circulation patterns such as MDR SSTs and NAO mode, rather than with changes in local climate phenomena as has previously been suggested.

Growth dynamics and the evolution of cooperation in microbial populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cremer, Jonas; Melbinger, Anna; Frey, Erwin

2012-02-01

Microbes providing public goods are widespread in nature despite running the risk of being exploited by free-riders. However, the precise ecological factors supporting cooperation are still puzzling. Following recent experiments, we consider the role of population growth and the repetitive fragmentation of populations into new colonies mimicking simple microbial life-cycles. Individual-based modeling reveals that demographic fluctuations, which lead to a large variance in the composition of colonies, promote cooperation. Biased by population dynamics these fluctuations result in two qualitatively distinct regimes of robust cooperation under repetitive fragmentation into groups. First, if the level of cooperation exceeds a threshold, cooperators will take over the whole population. Second, cooperators can also emerge from a single mutant leading to a robust coexistence between cooperators and free-riders. We find frequency and size of population bottlenecks, and growth dynamics to be the major ecological factors determining the regimes and thereby the evolutionary pathway towards cooperation.

Plant Ecology of Australia's Tropical Floodplain Wetlands: A Review

PubMed Central

FINLAYSON, C. M.

2005-01-01

• Aims Despite the biodiversity values of the freshwater floodplains of northern Australia being widely recognized, there has not been a concomitant investment in developing the extent of knowledge of the basic functions and ecological processes that underpin the ecological character of these habitats. This review addresses the extent of our knowledge on the plant ecology of these wetlands and covers: the relationships between the climate and the hydrological regime on the floodplain; the vegetation patterns, succession and adaptation; and primary production. • Scope Information is available on the seasonal, but less regularly on the inter-annual, dynamics of the macrophytic vegetation and its evident inter-relationship with the extent, depth and duration of inundation by seasonal flooding. The available scientifically collected information on plant distribution and relationship with the water regime could be complemented by more attention to traditional knowledge. The productivity of the vegetation is high—the dominant wetland grass species have an annual dry weight production of 0·5–2·1 kg m−2 and the surrounding riparian (Melaleuca) trees contribute litterfall of 0·7–1·5 kg (dry weight) m−2 year−1, ∼70 % due to leaf-fall. The availability of dissolved oxygen in the water is known to vary diurnally and seasonally, at least in some habitats. The importance of seasonal differences in the availability of dissolved oxygen for the growth of micro- and macrophytic vegetation has not been investigated. The seasonal distribution and growth of plant species on a few floodplains have been investigated, and maps at scales of 1 : 10 000 to 1 : 100 000 are available for these. However, only on a few occasions have longer term analyses been conducted and long-term changes in the vegetation measured and assessed. Species lists and categorization of growth strategies and forms are available and provide a basis for further ecological investigation. • Conclusions Despite the large investment in managing the many pressures that have degraded the ecological character of these highly valued wetlands, the fundamental ecological processes that underpin the biodiversity values have not received the same level of attention. Further information on plant growth and the environmental factors that drive seasonal and annual changes in vegetation distribution and productivity is required to assist managers in attending to changes due to increasing invasive species and changes in fire regimes. PMID:16093268

Examining Historical and Current Mixed-Severity Fire Regimes in Ponderosa Pine and Mixed-Conifer Forests of Western North America

PubMed Central

Odion, Dennis C.; Hanson, Chad T.; Arsenault, André; Baker, William L.; DellaSala, Dominick A.; Hutto, Richard L.; Klenner, Walt; Moritz, Max A.; Sherriff, Rosemary L.; Veblen, Thomas T.; Williams, Mark A.

2014-01-01

There is widespread concern that fire exclusion has led to an unprecedented threat of uncharacteristically severe fires in ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa Dougl. ex. Laws) and mixed-conifer forests of western North America. These extensive montane forests are considered to be adapted to a low/moderate-severity fire regime that maintained stands of relatively old trees. However, there is increasing recognition from landscape-scale assessments that, prior to any significant effects of fire exclusion, fires and forest structure were more variable in these forests. Biota in these forests are also dependent on the resources made available by higher-severity fire. A better understanding of historical fire regimes in the ponderosa pine and mixed-conifer forests of western North America is therefore needed to define reference conditions and help maintain characteristic ecological diversity of these systems. We compiled landscape-scale evidence of historical fire severity patterns in the ponderosa pine and mixed-conifer forests from published literature sources and stand ages available from the Forest Inventory and Analysis program in the USA. The consensus from this evidence is that the traditional reference conditions of low-severity fire regimes are inaccurate for most forests of western North America. Instead, most forests appear to have been characterized by mixed-severity fire that included ecologically significant amounts of weather-driven, high-severity fire. Diverse forests in different stages of succession, with a high proportion in relatively young stages, occurred prior to fire exclusion. Over the past century, successional diversity created by fire decreased. Our findings suggest that ecological management goals that incorporate successional diversity created by fire may support characteristic biodiversity, whereas current attempts to “restore” forests to open, low-severity fire conditions may not align with historical reference conditions in most ponderosa pine and mixed-conifer forests of western North America. PMID:24498383

Examining historical and current mixed-severity fire regimes in ponderosa pine and mixed-conifer forests of western North America.

PubMed

Odion, Dennis C; Hanson, Chad T; Arsenault, André; Baker, William L; Dellasala, Dominick A; Hutto, Richard L; Klenner, Walt; Moritz, Max A; Sherriff, Rosemary L; Veblen, Thomas T; Williams, Mark A

2014-01-01

There is widespread concern that fire exclusion has led to an unprecedented threat of uncharacteristically severe fires in ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa Dougl. ex. Laws) and mixed-conifer forests of western North America. These extensive montane forests are considered to be adapted to a low/moderate-severity fire regime that maintained stands of relatively old trees. However, there is increasing recognition from landscape-scale assessments that, prior to any significant effects of fire exclusion, fires and forest structure were more variable in these forests. Biota in these forests are also dependent on the resources made available by higher-severity fire. A better understanding of historical fire regimes in the ponderosa pine and mixed-conifer forests of western North America is therefore needed to define reference conditions and help maintain characteristic ecological diversity of these systems. We compiled landscape-scale evidence of historical fire severity patterns in the ponderosa pine and mixed-conifer forests from published literature sources and stand ages available from the Forest Inventory and Analysis program in the USA. The consensus from this evidence is that the traditional reference conditions of low-severity fire regimes are inaccurate for most forests of western North America. Instead, most forests appear to have been characterized by mixed-severity fire that included ecologically significant amounts of weather-driven, high-severity fire. Diverse forests in different stages of succession, with a high proportion in relatively young stages, occurred prior to fire exclusion. Over the past century, successional diversity created by fire decreased. Our findings suggest that ecological management goals that incorporate successional diversity created by fire may support characteristic biodiversity, whereas current attempts to "restore" forests to open, low-severity fire conditions may not align with historical reference conditions in most ponderosa pine and mixed-conifer forests of western North America.

A modeling approach to establish environmental flow threshold in ungauged semidiurnal tidal river

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akter, A.; Tanim, A. H.

2018-03-01

Due to shortage of flow monitoring data in ungauged semidiurnal river, 'environmental flow' (EF) determination based on its key component 'minimum low flow' is always difficult. For EF assessment this study selected a reach immediately after the Halda-Karnafuli confluence, a unique breeding ground for Indian Carp fishes of Bangladesh. As part of an ungauged tidal river, EF threshold establishment faces challenges in changing ecological paradigms with periodic change of tides and hydrologic alterations. This study describes a novel approach through modeling framework comprising hydrological, hydrodynamic and habitat simulation model. The EF establishment was conceptualized according to the hydrologic process of an ungauged semi-diurnal tidal regime in four steps. Initially, a hydrologic model coupled with a hydrodynamic model to simulate flow considering land use changes effect on streamflow, seepage loss of channel, friction dominated tidal decay as well as lack of long term flow characteristics. Secondly, to define hydraulic habitat feature, a statistical analysis on derived flow data was performed to identify 'habitat suitability'. Thirdly, to observe the ecological habitat behavior based on the identified hydrologic alteration, hydraulic habitat features were investigated. Finally, based on the combined habitat suitability index flow alteration and ecological response relationship was established. Then, the obtained EF provides a set of low flow indices of desired regime and thus the obtained discharge against maximum Weighted Usable Area (WUA) was defined as EF threshold for the selected reach. A suitable EF regime condition was obtained within flow range 25-30.1 m3/s i.e., around 10-12% of the mean annual runoff of 245 m3/s and these findings are within researchers' recommendation of minimum flow requirement. Additionally it was observed that tidal characteristics are dominant process in semi-diurnal regime. However, during the study period (2010-2015) the validated model with those reported observations can provide guidance for the decision support system (DSS) to maintain EF range in an ungauged tidal river.

Restoring ecological integrity of great rivers: Historical hydrographs aid in defining reference conditions for the Missouri River

USGS Publications Warehouse

Galat, D.L.; Lipkin, R.

2000-01-01

Restoring the ecological integrity of regulated large rivers necessitates characterizing the natural flow regime. We applied 'Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration' to assess the natural range of variation of the Missouri River's flow regime at 11 locations before (1929-1948) and after (1967-1996) mainstem impoundment. The 3768 km long Missouri River was divided into three sections: upper basin least-altered from flow regulation, including the lower Yellowstone River; middle basin inter-reservoir, and lower basin channelized. Flow regulation was associated with a reduction in magnitude and duration of the annual flood pulse, an increase in magnitude and duration of annual discharge minima, a reduction in frequency of annual low-flow pulses, earlier timing of March-October low-flow pulses, and a general increase in frequency of flow reversals with a reduction in the rate of change in river flows. Hydrologic alterations were smallest at two least-altered upper-basin sites and most frequent and severe in inter-reservoir and upper-channelized river sections. The influence of reservoir operations on depressing the annual flood pulse was partially offset by tributary inflow in the lower 600 km of river. Reservoir operations could be modified to more closely approximate the 1929-1948 flow regime to establish a simulated natural riverine ecosystem. For inter-reservoir and upper channelized-river sections, we recommend periodic controlled flooding through managed reservoir releases during June and July; increased magnitude, frequency and duration of annual high-flow pulses; and increased annual rates of hydrograph rises and falls. All of the regulated Missouri River would benefit from reduced reservoir discharges during August-February, modified timing of reservoir releases and a reduced number of annual hydrograph reversals. Assessment of ecological responses to a reregulation of Missouri River flows that more closely approximates the natural flow regime should then be used in an adaptive fashion to further adjust reservoir operations.

Inferring responses to climate dynamics from historical demography in neotropical forest lizards

PubMed Central

Xue, Alexander T.; Brown, Jason L.; Alvarado-Serrano, Diego F.; Rodrigues, Miguel T.; Hickerson, Michael J.; Carnaval, Ana C.

2016-01-01

We apply a comparative framework to test for concerted demographic changes in response to climate shifts in the neotropical lowland forests, learning from the past to inform projections of the future. Using reduced genomic (SNP) data from three lizard species codistributed in Amazonia and the Atlantic Forest (Anolis punctatus, Anolis ortonii, and Polychrus marmoratus), we first reconstruct former population history and test for assemblage-level responses to cycles of moisture transport recently implicated in changes of forest distribution during the Late Quaternary. We find support for population shifts within the time frame of inferred precipitation fluctuations (the last 250,000 y) but detect idiosyncratic responses across species and uniformity of within-species responses across forest regions. These results are incongruent with expectations of concerted population expansion in response to increased rainfall and fail to detect out-of-phase demographic syndromes (expansions vs. contractions) across forest regions. Using reduced genomic data to infer species-specific demographical parameters, we then model the plausible spatial distribution of genetic diversity in the Atlantic Forest into future climates (2080) under a medium carbon emission trajectory. The models forecast very distinct trajectories for the lizard species, reflecting unique estimated population densities and dispersal abilities. Ecological and demographic constraints seemingly lead to distinct and asynchronous responses to climatic regimes in the tropics, even among similarly distributed taxa. Incorporating such constraints is key to improve modeling of the distribution of biodiversity in the past and future. PMID:27432951

Inferring responses to climate dynamics from historical demography in neotropical forest lizards.

PubMed

Prates, Ivan; Xue, Alexander T; Brown, Jason L; Alvarado-Serrano, Diego F; Rodrigues, Miguel T; Hickerson, Michael J; Carnaval, Ana C

2016-07-19

We apply a comparative framework to test for concerted demographic changes in response to climate shifts in the neotropical lowland forests, learning from the past to inform projections of the future. Using reduced genomic (SNP) data from three lizard species codistributed in Amazonia and the Atlantic Forest (Anolis punctatus, Anolis ortonii, and Polychrus marmoratus), we first reconstruct former population history and test for assemblage-level responses to cycles of moisture transport recently implicated in changes of forest distribution during the Late Quaternary. We find support for population shifts within the time frame of inferred precipitation fluctuations (the last 250,000 y) but detect idiosyncratic responses across species and uniformity of within-species responses across forest regions. These results are incongruent with expectations of concerted population expansion in response to increased rainfall and fail to detect out-of-phase demographic syndromes (expansions vs. contractions) across forest regions. Using reduced genomic data to infer species-specific demographical parameters, we then model the plausible spatial distribution of genetic diversity in the Atlantic Forest into future climates (2080) under a medium carbon emission trajectory. The models forecast very distinct trajectories for the lizard species, reflecting unique estimated population densities and dispersal abilities. Ecological and demographic constraints seemingly lead to distinct and asynchronous responses to climatic regimes in the tropics, even among similarly distributed taxa. Incorporating such constraints is key to improve modeling of the distribution of biodiversity in the past and future.

No growth stimulation of Canada's boreal forest under half-century of combined warming and CO2 fertilization.

PubMed

Girardin, Martin P; Bouriaud, Olivier; Hogg, Edward H; Kurz, Werner; Zimmermann, Niklaus E; Metsaranta, Juha M; de Jong, Rogier; Frank, David C; Esper, Jan; Büntgen, Ulf; Guo, Xiao Jing; Bhatti, Jagtar

2016-12-27

Considerable evidence exists that current global temperatures are higher than at any time during the past millennium. However, the long-term impacts of rising temperatures and associated shifts in the hydrological cycle on the productivity of ecosystems remain poorly understood for mid to high northern latitudes. Here, we quantify species-specific spatiotemporal variability in terrestrial aboveground biomass stem growth across Canada's boreal forests from 1950 to the present. We use 873 newly developed tree-ring chronologies from Canada's National Forest Inventory, representing an unprecedented degree of sampling standardization for a large-scale dendrochronological study. We find significant regional- and species-related trends in growth, but the positive and negative trends compensate each other to yield no strong overall trend in forest growth when averaged across the Canadian boreal forest. The spatial patterns of growth trends identified in our analysis were to some extent coherent with trends estimated by remote sensing, but there are wide areas where remote-sensing information did not match the forest growth trends. Quantifications of tree growth variability as a function of climate factors and atmospheric CO 2 concentration reveal strong negative temperature and positive moisture controls on spatial patterns of tree growth rates, emphasizing the ecological sensitivity to regime shifts in the hydrological cycle. An enhanced dependence of forest growth on soil moisture during the late-20th century coincides with a rapid rise in summer temperatures and occurs despite potential compensating effects from increased atmospheric CO 2 concentration.

Trophic Ecology of Atlantic Bluefin Tuna (Thunnusthynnus) Larvae from the Gulf of Mexico and NW Mediterranean Spawning Grounds: A Comparative Stable Isotope Study

PubMed Central

Malca, Estrella; Quintanilla, José María; Muhling, Barbara A.; Alemany, Francisco; Privoznik, Sarah L.; Shiroza, Akihiro; Lamkin, John T.; García, Alberto

2015-01-01

The present study uses stable isotopes of nitrogen and carbon (δ15Nandδ13C) as trophic indicators for Atlantic bluefin tuna larvae (BFT) (6–10 mm standard length) in the highly contrasting environmental conditions of the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) and the Balearic Sea (MED). These regions are differentiated by their temperature regime and relative productivity, with the GOM being significantly warmer and more productive. MED BFT larvae showed the highest δ15N signatures, implying an elevated trophic position above the underlying microzooplankton baseline. Ontogenetic dietary shifts were observed in the BFT larvae from the GOM and MED which indicates early life trophodynamics differences between these spawning habitats. Significant trophic differences between the GOM and MED larvae were observed in relation to δ15N signatures in favour of the MED larvae, which may have important implications in their growth during their early life stages.These low δ15N levels in the zooplankton from the GOM may be an indication of a shifting isotopic baseline in pelagic food webs due to diatrophic inputs by cyanobacteria. Lack of enrichment for δ15N in BFT larvae compared to zooplankton implies an alternative grazing pathway from the traditional food chain of phytoplankton—zooplankton—larval fish. Results provide insight for a comparative characterization of the trophic pathways variability of the two main spawning grounds for BFT larvae. PMID:26225849

Influence of salinity regime on the food-web structure and feeding ecology of fish species from Mediterranean coastal lagoons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prado, Patricia; Vergara, Carolina; Caiola, Nuno; Ibáñez, Carles

2014-02-01

Dual δ15N and δ13C analyses and estimates of biomass were used to characterize the food webs of valuable fish species in three coastal lagoons of the Ebro Delta subjected to contrasting salinity regimes (polyhaline in the Tancada lagoon, mesohaline in the Encanyissada and oligohaline in the Clot lagoon). The δ13C signatures of the entire food-web including primary producers, sediment organic matter and consumers showed the most enriched values in the Tancada lagoon (from approx. -4.8‰ in sediments to -19.7‰ in fish) and the most depleted ones in the Clot lagoon (from approx. -11.4‰ in sediments to -25.4‰ in fish), consistent with dominant contributions from marine and continental sources, respectively. For δ15N, particularly high values were detected in the submersed vegetation (11.3 ± 0.3‰) together with more enriched sediment values at lower salinities (by approx. 2.5‰), suggesting that historical loadings of agricultural fertilizers are still retained by the systems and transmitted across trophic levels. Negative relationships between δ15N and salinity were also observed for the amphipod Gammarus aequicauda and the isopod Sphaeroma hookeri, suggesting some consumption of accumulated and resuspended detrital material. In contrast, δ15N signatures of fish showed lower values and inconsistent patterns, possibly because most species have a seasonal use of the lagoons. The biomass of fish species did not show a clear effect of the salinity regime (except for the mosquitofish Gambusia holbrookii), but results for mixing models suggest a diet shift from higher contribution of zooplankton size fractions in the Encanyissada (from 57 to 73%) to macrofauna at the other lagoons (from 40 to 67%). We suggest that alterations in salinity might modify the trophic dynamics of the systems from benthic to planktonic pathways, without large-scale differences in δ15N of fish suggestive of similar trophic levels.

Shifts in distribution of herbivorous geese relative to hydrological variation in East Dongting Lake wetland, China.

PubMed

Zhang, Pingyang; Zou, Yeai; Xie, Yonghong; Zhang, Hong; Liu, Xiangkui; Gao, Dali; Yi, Feiyue

2018-04-24

Studies on distribution dynamics of waterbirds and the relation with hydrological changes are essential components of ecological researches. East Dongting Lake is a Ramsar site and especially important wintering ground for herbivorous geese along the East Asian-Australasian Flyway. In this paper, based on annual (2008/09-2016/17) waterbird census data, we investigated the spatial-temporal distributions of three herbivorous goose species (Lesser White-fronted Goose Anser erythropus, Bean Goose Anser fabalis, and Greater White-fronted Goose Anser albifrons) within East Dongting Lake, and analyzed their distribution dynamics (denoted by percentage similarity index, PSI) relative to variations in hydrological regime. The results demonstrated that the distribution of the globally vulnerable Lesser White-fronted Geese changed obviously between years, whereas that of Bean Geese was more stable. Greater White-fronted Geese suffered drastic distribution variation during the study period. The PSI of Lesser White-fronted Geese was negatively correlated with between-year difference in water recession time and mean water level in October, whereas no obvious trend was found in Bean Geese. The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) was applied to detect changes in food resources of the geese, and significant correlations were also found between NDVI and hydrological factors. It was inferred that the variations in hydrological regime affected the annual distribution dynamics of Lesser White-fronted Geese by changing food conditions; whereas the effect on Bean Geese were not reflected in this study. Species traits may explain the differences in distribution dynamics among the three goose species. It was speculated that Lesser White-fronted Geese might be more sensitive to habitat change, whereas Bean Geese were more resilient. We suggested that regulating hydrological regime was crucial in management works. Our study could offer scientific information for species conservation in the context of habitat changes in East Dongting Lake wetland and provide potential insights into habitat management in this area. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Coastal oceanography sets the pace of rocky intertidal community dynamics.

PubMed

Menge, B A; Lubchenco, J; Bracken, M E S; Chan, F; Foley, M M; Freidenburg, T L; Gaines, S D; Hudson, G; Krenz, C; Leslie, H; Menge, D N L; Russell, R; Webster, M S

2003-10-14

The structure of ecological communities reflects a tension among forces that alter populations. Marine ecologists previously emphasized control by locally operating forces (predation, competition, and disturbance), but newer studies suggest that inputs from large-scale oceanographically modulated subsidies (nutrients, particulates, and propagules) can strongly influence community structure and dynamics. On New Zealand rocky shores, the magnitude of such subsidies differs profoundly between contrasting oceanographic regimes. Community structure, and particularly the pace of community dynamics, differ dramatically between intermittent upwelling regimes compared with relatively persistent down-welling regimes. We suggest that subsidy rates are a key determinant of the intensity of species interactions, and thus of structure in marine systems, and perhaps also nonmarine communities.

Modeling climate changes and wildfire interactions: Effects on whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis) and implications for restoration, Glacier National Park, Montana, USA

Treesearch

Rachel A. Loehman; Allissa Corrow; Robert E. Keane

2011-01-01

Climate changes are projected to profoundly influence vegetation patterns and community compositions, either directly through increased species mortality and shifts in species distributions, or indirectly through disturbance dynamics such as increased wildfire activity and extent, shifting fire regimes, and pathogenesis. High-elevation landscapes have been shown to be...

When does ecological sustainability ensure economic sustainability? An integrated analysis of thresholds in semi-arid western rangelands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cobourn, K. M.; Peckham, S. D.

2011-12-01

The vulnerability of agri-environmental systems to ecological threshold events depends on the combined influence of economic factors and natural drivers, such as climate and disturbance. This analysis builds an integrated ecologic-economic model to evaluate the behavioral response of agricultural producers to changing and uncertain natural conditions. The model explicitly reflects the effect of producer behavior on the likelihood of a threshold event that threatens the ecological and/or economic sustainability of the agri-environmental system. The foundation of the analysis is a threshold indicator that incorporates the population dynamics of a species that supports economic production and an episodic disturbance regime-in this case rangeland grass that is grazed by livestock and is subject to wildfire. This ecological indicator is integrated into an economic model in which producers choose grazing intensity given the state of the grass population and a set of economic parameters. We examine two model variants that characterize differing economic circumstances. The first characterizes the optimal grazing regime assuming that the system is managed by a single planner whose objective is to maximize the aggregate long-run returns of producers in the system. The second examines the case in which individual producers choose their own stocking rates in order to maximize their private economic benefit. The results from the first model variant illustrate the difference between an ecologic and an economic threshold. Failure to cross an ecological threshold does not necessarily ensure that the system remains economically viable: Economic sustainability, defined as the ability of the system to support optimal production into the infinite future, requires that the net growth rate of the supporting population exceeds the level required for ecological sustainability by an amount that depends on the market price of livestock and grazing efficiency. The results from the second model variant define the circumstances under which a system that is otherwise ecologically sustainable is driven over a threshold by the actions of economic agents. The difference between the two model solutions identifies bounds between which the viability of livestock production over the long-run is uncertain and depends upon the policy setting in which the agri-environmental system operates.

Woodland-to-forest transition during prolonged drought in Minnesota after ca. AD 1300.

PubMed

Shuman, Bryan; Henderson, Anna K; Plank, Colin; Stefanova, Ivanka; Ziegler, Susy S

2009-10-01

Interactions among multiple causes of ecological perturbation, such as climate change and disturbance, can produce "ecological surprises." Here, we examine whether climate-fire-vegetation interactions can produce ecological changes that differ in direction from those expected from the effects of climate change alone. To do so, we focus on the "Big Woods" of central Minnesota, USA, which was shaped both by climate and fire. The deciduous Big Woods forest replaced regional woodlands and savannas after the severity of regional fire regimes declined at ca. AD 1300. A trend toward wet conditions has long been assumed to explain the forest expansion, but we show that water levels at two lakes within the region (Wolsfeld Lake and Bufflehead Pond) were low when open woodlands were transformed into the Big Woods. Water levels were high instead at ca. 2240-795 BC when regional fire regimes were most severe. Based on the correlation between water levels and fire-regime severity, we infer that prolonged or repeated droughts after ca. AD 1265 reduced the biomass and connectivity of fine fuels (grasses) within the woodlands. As a result, regional fire severity declined and allowed tree populations to expand. Tree-ring data from the region show a peak in the recruitment of key Big Woods tree species during the AD 1930s drought and suggest that low regional moisture balance need not have been a limiting factor for forest expansion. The regional history, thus, demonstrates the types of counterintuitive ecosystem changes that may arise as climate changes in the future.

El control biologico de plagas(Biological control of pests)

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

In this work some ecological principles that drive applied biocontrol and agent selection are discussed. Subjects such as specificity evaluations, host shifts and species invasiveness are analyzed under the light of ecological theory. The main assertions are: 1. biological control is a safe and bene...

IN EXPECTATION OF RELATIONSHIPS: CENTERING THEORIES AROUND ECOLOGICAL UNDERSTANDING

EPA Science Inventory

Over the last several decades, many educators and professionals in the design and planning fields have made a "turn to ecology," where "turn" means a shift in emphasis and priorities. From the publication of Design with Nature (McHarg 1969) to the publication of contemporary appr...

Morphological, Structural and Optical Evolution of Ag Nanostructures on c-Plane GaN Through the Variation of Deposition Amount and Temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sui, Mao; Li, Ming-Yu; Pandey, Puran; Zhang, Quanzhen; Kunwar, Sundar; Lee, Jihoon

2018-03-01

Owing to their tunable properties, Ag nanostructures have been widely adapted in various applications and the morphological control can determine their performance and effectiveness. In this work, we demonstrate the morphological and optical evolution of Ag nanostructures on GaN (0001) by the systematic control of deposition amount at two distinctive annealing temperatures. Based on the Volmer-Weber and coalescence growth models, the nanostructure growth commenced by the thermal solid-state-dewetting evolve in terms of size, density and configuration. At 450 °C, the round-dome shaped Ag nanoparticles (regime I), irregular Ag nano-mounds (regime II) and void-layer structures (regime III) are observed along with the gradually increased deposition amount. As a sharp distinction, the solid state dewetting process occur more radically at 700 °C and also, the Ag sublimation and the effect on the nanostructure formation are observed in a clear regime shift scaled by the deposition amount. Meanwhile, a strong dependency of reflectance spectra evolution on the Ag nanostructure morphology is witnessed for both sets. In particular, Ag dipolar resonance peaks are significantly red-shifted from VIS to NIR regions along with the nanostructure evolution. The reflectance, PL and Raman intensity variation are also observed and discussed based on the evolution of Ag nanostructures.