Science.gov

Sample records for econometrics

  1. Econometric Studies of Higher Education.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ehrenberg, Ronald G.

    The econometrics of higher education emerged from the development of human capital theory and efforts to estimate rates of return to education in the 1960s and 1970s. This paper surveys the various strands of the literature on the econometrics of higher education that have developed during the last 40 years and indicates how a collection of papers…

  2. Glossary for econometrics and epidemiology.

    PubMed

    Gunasekara, F Imlach; Carter, K; Blakely, T

    2008-10-01

    Epidemiologists and econometricians are often interested in similar topics-socioeconomic position and health outcomes-but the different languages that epidemiologists and economists use to interpret and discuss their results can create a barrier to mutual communication. This glossary defines key terms used in econometrics and epidemiology to assist in bridging this gap.

  3. An Applied Physicist Does Econometrics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Taff, L. G.

    2010-02-01

    The biggest problem those attempting to understand econometric data, via modeling, have is that economics has no F = ma. Without a theoretical underpinning, econometricians have no way to build a good model to fit observations to. Physicists do, and when F = ma failed, we knew it. Still desiring to comprehend econometric data, applied economists turn to mis-applying probability theory---especially with regard to the assumptions concerning random errors---and choosing extremely simplistic analytical formulations of inter-relationships. This introduces model bias to an unknown degree. An applied physicist, used to having to match observations to a numerical or analytical model with a firm theoretical basis, modify the model, re-perform the analysis, and then know why, and when, to delete ``outliers'', is at a considerable advantage when quantitatively analyzing econometric data. I treat two cases. One is to determine the household density distribution of total assets, annual income, age, level of education, race, and marital status. Each of these ``independent'' variables is highly correlated with every other but only current annual income and level of education follow a linear relationship. The other is to discover the functional dependence of total assets on the distribution of assets: total assets has an amazingly tight power law dependence on a quadratic function of portfolio composition. Who knew? )

  4. Crystal study and econometric model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1975-01-01

    An econometric model was developed that can be used to predict demand and supply figures for crystals over a time horizon roughly concurrent with that of NASA's Space Shuttle Program - that is, 1975 through 1990. The model includes an equation to predict the impact on investment in the crystal-growing industry. Actually, two models are presented. The first is a theoretical model which follows rather strictly the standard theoretical economic concepts involved in supply and demand analysis, and a modified version of the model was developed which, though not quite as theoretically sound, was testable utilizing existing data sources.

  5. Econometric models for biohydrogen development.

    PubMed

    Lee, Duu-Hwa; Lee, Duu-Jong; Veziroglu, Ayfer

    2011-09-01

    Biohydrogen is considered as an attractive clean energy source due to its high energy content and environmental-friendly conversion. Analyzing various economic scenarios can help decision makers to optimize development strategies for the biohydrogen sector. This study surveys econometric models of biohydrogen development, including input-out models, life-cycle assessment approach, computable general equilibrium models, linear programming models and impact pathway approach. Fundamentals of each model were briefly reviewed to highlight their advantages and disadvantages. The input-output model and the simplified economic input-output life-cycle assessment model proved most suitable for economic analysis of biohydrogen energy development. A sample analysis using input-output model for forecasting biohydrogen development in the United States is given.

  6. Identification and Inference for Econometric Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Andrews, Donald W. K.; Stock, James H.

    2005-07-01

    This volume contains the papers presented in honor of the lifelong achievements of Thomas J. Rothenberg on the occasion of his retirement. The authors of the chapters include many of the leading econometricians of our day, and the chapters address topics of current research significance in econometric theory. The chapters cover four themes: identification and efficient estimation in econometrics, asymptotic approximations to the distributions of econometric estimators and tests, inference involving potentially nonstationary time series, such as processes that might have a unit autoregressive root, and nonparametric and semiparametric inference. Several of the chapters provide overviews and treatments of basic conceptual issues, while others advance our understanding of the properties of existing econometric procedures and/or propose new ones. Specific topics include identification in nonlinear models, inference with weak instruments, tests for nonstationary in time series and panel data, generalized empirical likelihood estimation, and the bootstrap.

  7. On aggregation in spatial econometric modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Paelinck, Jean H. P.

    The spatial aggregation problem - also termed the modifiable areal unit problem - has attracted regular attention in spatial statistics and econometrics. In this study econometric aggregation analysis is used to investigate the formal composition of meso-areal parameters given micro-areal underlying relations with spatial dependence. Impact on stochastic terms (possible meso-areal spatial autocorrelation) is also studied. Finally consequences for meso-areal estimation are derived, the general finding having been that spatial aggregation leads to meso-region specific parameter values, with the estimation problems this implies.

  8. Econometric Models for Forecasting of Macroeconomic Indices

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sukhanova, Elena I.; Shirnaeva, Svetlana Y.; Mokronosov, Aleksandr G.

    2016-01-01

    The urgency of the research topic was stipulated by the necessity to carry out an effective controlled process by the economic system which can hardly be imagined without indices forecasting characteristic of this system. An econometric model is a safe tool of forecasting which makes it possible to take into consideration the trend of indices…

  9. Pulling Econometrics Students up by Their Bootstraps

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    O'Hara, Michael E.

    2014-01-01

    Although the concept of the sampling distribution is at the core of much of what we do in econometrics, it is a concept that is often difficult for students to grasp. The thought process behind bootstrapping provides a way for students to conceptualize the sampling distribution in a way that is intuitive and visual. However, teaching students to…

  10. Bootstrapping Student Understanding of What Is Going on in Econometrics.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kennedy, Peter E.

    2001-01-01

    Explains that econometrics is an intellectual game played by rules based on the sampling distribution concept. Contains explanations for why many students are uncomfortable with econometrics. Encourages instructors to use explain-how-to-bootstrap exercises to promote student understanding. (RLH)

  11. Econometric models for predicting confusion crop ratios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Umberger, D. E.; Proctor, M. H.; Clark, J. E.; Eisgruber, L. M.; Braschler, C. B. (Principal Investigator)

    1979-01-01

    Results for both the United States and Canada show that econometric models can provide estimates of confusion crop ratios that are more accurate than historical ratios. Whether these models can support the LACIE 90/90 accuracy criterion is uncertain. In the United States, experimenting with additional model formulations could provide improved methods models in some CRD's, particularly in winter wheat. Improved models may also be possible for the Canadian CD's. The more aggressive province/state models outperformed individual CD/CRD models. This result was expected partly because acreage statistics are based on sampling procedures, and the sampling precision declines from the province/state to the CD/CRD level. Declining sampling precision and the need to substitute province/state data for the CD/CRD data introduced measurement error into the CD/CRD models.

  12. The need for econometric research in laboratory animal operations.

    PubMed

    Baker, David G; Kearney, Michael T

    2015-06-01

    The scarcity of research funding can affect animal facilities in various ways. These effects can be evaluated by examining the allocation of financial resources in animal facilities, which can be facilitated by the use of mathematical and statistical methods to analyze economic problems, a discipline known as econometrics. The authors applied econometrics to study whether increasing per diem charges had a negative effect on the number of days of animal care purchased by animal users. They surveyed animal numbers and per diem charges at 20 research institutions and found that demand for large animals decreased as per diem charges increased. The authors discuss some of the challenges involved in their study and encourage research institutions to carry out more robust econometric studies of this and other economic questions facing laboratory animal research.

  13. Essays in financial economics and econometrics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    La Spada, Gabriele

    Chapter 1 (my job market paper) asks the following question: Do asset managers reach for yield because of competitive pressures in a low rate environment? I propose a tournament model of money market funds (MMFs) to study this issue. I show that funds with different costs of default respond differently to changes in interest rates, and that it is important to distinguish the role of risk-free rates from that of risk premia. An increase in the risk premium leads funds with lower default costs to increase risk-taking, while funds with higher default costs reduce risk-taking. Without changes in the premium, low risk-free rates reduce risk-taking. My empirical analysis shows that these predictions are consistent with the risk-taking of MMFs during the 2006--2008 period. Chapter 2, co-authored with Fabrizio Lillo and published in Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics (2014), studies the effect of round-off error (or discretization) on stationary Gaussian long-memory process. For large lags, the autocovariance is rescaled by a factor smaller than one, and we compute this factor exactly. Hence, the discretized process has the same Hurst exponent as the underlying one. We show that in presence of round-off error, two common estimators of the Hurst exponent, the local Whittle (LW) estimator and the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA), are severely negatively biased in finite samples. We derive conditions for consistency and asymptotic normality of the LW estimator applied to discretized processes and compute the asymptotic properties of the DFA for generic long-memory processes that encompass discretized processes. Chapter 3, co-authored with Fabrizio Lillo, studies the effect of round-off error on integrated Gaussian processes with possibly correlated increments. We derive the variance and kurtosis of the realized increment process in the limit of both "small" and "large" round-off errors, and its autocovariance for large lags. We propose novel estimators for the

  14. An Econometric Approach to Evaluate Navy Advertising Efficiency.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1996-03-01

    This thesis uses an econometric approach to systematically and comprehensively analyze Navy advertising and recruiting data to determine Navy... advertising cost efficiency in the Navy recruiting process. Current recruiting and advertising cost data are merged into an appropriate data base and...evaluated using multiple regression techniques to find assessments of the relationships between Navy advertising expenditures and recruit contracts attained

  15. Econometric Assessment of "One Minute" Paper as a Pedagogic Tool

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Das, Amaresh

    2010-01-01

    This paper makes an econometric testing of one-minute paper used as a tool to manage and assess instruction in my statistics class. One of our findings is that the one minute paper when I have tested it by using an OLS estimate in a controlled Vs experimental design framework is found to statistically significant and effective in enhancing…

  16. The Status of Econometrics in the Economics Major: A Survey

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Johnson, Bruce K.; Perry, John J.; Petkus, Marie

    2012-01-01

    In this article, the authors describe the place of econometrics in undergraduate economics curricula in all American colleges and universities that offer economics majors as listed in the "U.S. News & World Report" "Best Colleges 2010" guide ("U.S. News & World Report" 2009). Data come from online catalogs, departmental Web sites, and online…

  17. An Econometric Model for Forecasting Income and Employment in Hawaii.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chau, Laurence C.

    This report presents the methodology for short-run forecasting of personal income and employment in Hawaii. The econometric model developed in the study is used to make actual forecasts through 1973 of income and employment, with major components forecasted separately. Several sets of forecasts are made, under different assumptions on external…

  18. Factors influencing crime rates: an econometric analysis approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bothos, John M. A.; Thomopoulos, Stelios C. A.

    2016-05-01

    The scope of the present study is to research the dynamics that determine the commission of crimes in the US society. Our study is part of a model we are developing to understand urban crime dynamics and to enhance citizens' "perception of security" in large urban environments. The main targets of our research are to highlight dependence of crime rates on certain social and economic factors and basic elements of state anticrime policies. In conducting our research, we use as guides previous relevant studies on crime dependence, that have been performed with similar quantitative analyses in mind, regarding the dependence of crime on certain social and economic factors using statistics and econometric modelling. Our first approach consists of conceptual state space dynamic cross-sectional econometric models that incorporate a feedback loop that describes crime as a feedback process. In order to define dynamically the model variables, we use statistical analysis on crime records and on records about social and economic conditions and policing characteristics (like police force and policing results - crime arrests), to determine their influence as independent variables on crime, as the dependent variable of our model. The econometric models we apply in this first approach are an exponential log linear model and a logit model. In a second approach, we try to study the evolvement of violent crime through time in the US, independently as an autonomous social phenomenon, using autoregressive and moving average time-series econometric models. Our findings show that there are certain social and economic characteristics that affect the formation of crime rates in the US, either positively or negatively. Furthermore, the results of our time-series econometric modelling show that violent crime, viewed solely and independently as a social phenomenon, correlates with previous years crime rates and depends on the social and economic environment's conditions during previous years.

  19. Synthesizing Econometric Evidence: The Case of Demand Elasticity Estimates.

    PubMed

    DeCicca, Philip; Kenkel, Don

    2015-06-01

    Econometric estimates of the responsiveness of health-related consumer demand to higher prices are often key ingredients for risk policy analysis. We review the potential advantages and challenges of synthesizing econometric evidence on the price-responsiveness of consumer demand. We draw on examples of research on consumer demand for health-related goods, especially cigarettes. We argue that the overarching goal of research synthesis in this context is to provide policy-relevant evidence for broad-brush conclusions. We propose three main criteria to select among research synthesis methods. We discuss how in principle and in current practice synthesis of research on the price-elasticity of smoking meets our proposed criteria. Our analysis of current practice also contributes to academic research on the specific policy question of the effectiveness of higher cigarette prices to reduce smoking. Although we point out challenges and limitations, we believe more work on research synthesis in this area will be productive and important.

  20. Econometric model for age- and population-dependent radiation exposures

    SciTech Connect

    Sandquist, G.M.; Slaughter, D.M. ); Rogers, V.C.

    1991-01-01

    The economic impact associated with ionizing radiation exposures in a given human population depends on numerous factors including the individual's mean economic status as a function age, the age distribution of the population, the future life expectancy at each age, and the latency period for the occurrence of radiation-induced health effects. A simple mathematical model has been developed that provides an analytical methodology for estimating the societal econometrics associated with radiation effects are to be assessed and compared for economic evaluation.

  1. Econometrics in outcomes research: the use of instrumental variables.

    PubMed

    Newhouse, J P; McClellan, M

    1998-01-01

    We describe an econometric technique, instrumental variables, that can be useful in estimating the effectiveness of clinical treatments in situations when a controlled trial has not or cannot be done. This technique relies upon the existence of one or more variables that induce substantial variation in the treatment variable but have no direct effect on the outcome variable of interest. We illustrate the use of the technique with an application to aggressive treatment of acute myocardial infarction in the elderly.

  2. Spatial econometrics functions in R: Classes and methods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bivand, Roger

    Placing spatial econometrics and more generally spatial statistics in the context of an extensible data analysis environment such as R exposes similarities and differences between traditions of analysis. This can be fruitful, and is explored here in relation to prediction and other methods usually applied to fitted models in R. Objects in R may be assigned a class attribute, including fitted model objects. Such fitted model objects may be provided with methods allowing them to be displayed, compared, and used for prediction, and it is of interest to see whether fitted spatial models can be treated in the same way.

  3. State Labor Market Research Study: An Econometric Analysis of the Effects of Labor Subsidies.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    MacRae, C. Duncan; And Others

    The report describes the construction, application, and theoretical implications of an econometric model depicting the effects of labor subsidies on the supply of workers in the U.S. Three papers deal with the following aspects of constructing the econometric model: (1) examination of equilibrium wages, employment, and earnings of primary and…

  4. Computationally intensive econometrics using a distributed matrix-programming language.

    PubMed

    Doornik, Jurgen A; Hendry, David F; Shephard, Neil

    2002-06-15

    This paper reviews the need for powerful computing facilities in econometrics, focusing on concrete problems which arise in financial economics and in macroeconomics. We argue that the profession is being held back by the lack of easy-to-use generic software which is able to exploit the availability of cheap clusters of distributed computers. Our response is to extend, in a number of directions, the well-known matrix-programming interpreted language Ox developed by the first author. We note three possible levels of extensions: (i) Ox with parallelization explicit in the Ox code; (ii) Ox with a parallelized run-time library; and (iii) Ox with a parallelized interpreter. This paper studies and implements the first case, emphasizing the need for deterministic computing in science. We give examples in the context of financial economics and time-series modelling.

  5. Interrelation of GDP and pension capital: Mathematical and econometrical analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nepp, A. N.; Dolgodvorov, A. D.

    2016-12-01

    This article is a mathematicalanalysis of the relationship between GDP and the development of funded pension systems. For this purpose, a mathematical formula was derived from the macro-economic GDP, proportional to the level of income and consumption for the dependence of GDP on the level of pension payments, the value of pension savings and the structure of compulsory contributions to the pension fund allocated to the distribution and accumulative pension system. A derivation of the equation proves the linear relationship of GDP and the share of pension contributions channeled to the funded pension system. Thus, the macroeconomic indicator with the larger negative impact on GDP was proven to be the elimination of the compulsory funded pension system. Based on the econometric analysis, the positive effect of the distributive pension system was proven on macroeconomic parameters.

  6. Analytical-numerical solution of a nonlinear integrodifferential equation in econometrics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kakhktsyan, V. M.; Khachatryan, A. Kh.

    2013-07-01

    A mixed problem for a nonlinear integrodifferential equation arising in econometrics is considered. An analytical-numerical method is proposed for solving the problem. Some numerical results are presented.

  7. Allocating physicians' overhead costs to services: an econometric/accounting-activity based-approach.

    PubMed

    Peden, Al; Baker, Judith J

    2002-01-01

    Using the optimizing properties of econometric analysis, this study analyzes how physician overhead costs (OC) can be allocated to multiple activities to maximize precision in reimbursing the costs of services. Drawing on work by Leibenstein and Friedman, the analysis also shows that allocating OC to multiple activities unbiased by revenue requires controlling for revenue when making the estimates. Further econometric analysis shows that it is possible to save about 10 percent of OC by paying only for those that are necessary.

  8. The econometric submodels of the Energy Policy Socioeconomic Impact Model (EPSIM)

    SciTech Connect

    Butler, J.G.; Poyer, D.A.

    1994-04-01

    The Energy Policy Socioeconomic Impact Model (EPSIM) is an econometric simulation model that runs on IBM-compatible personal computers. It can be used to assess the economic impact of energy policies and programs, such as utility rate designs and demand-side management programs, on various population groups, such as minority and low-income households. The econometric submodels that constitute the internal structure of EPSIM are described in detail.

  9. Empirical spatial econometric modelling of small scale neighbourhood

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gerkman, Linda

    2012-07-01

    The aim of the paper is to model small scale neighbourhood in a house price model by implementing the newest methodology in spatial econometrics. A common problem when modelling house prices is that in practice it is seldom possible to obtain all the desired variables. Especially variables capturing the small scale neighbourhood conditions are hard to find. If there are important explanatory variables missing from the model, the omitted variables are spatially autocorrelated and they are correlated with the explanatory variables included in the model, it can be shown that a spatial Durbin model is motivated. In the empirical application on new house price data from Helsinki in Finland, we find the motivation for a spatial Durbin model, we estimate the model and interpret the estimates for the summary measures of impacts. By the analysis we show that the model structure makes it possible to model and find small scale neighbourhood effects, when we know that they exist, but we are lacking proper variables to measure them.

  10. Forecasting space weather: Can new econometric methods improve accuracy?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reikard, Gordon

    2011-06-01

    Space weather forecasts are currently used in areas ranging from navigation and communication to electric power system operations. The relevant forecast horizons can range from as little as 24 h to several days. This paper analyzes the predictability of two major space weather measures using new time series methods, many of them derived from econometrics. The data sets are the A p geomagnetic index and the solar radio flux at 10.7 cm. The methods tested include nonlinear regressions, neural networks, frequency domain algorithms, GARCH models (which utilize the residual variance), state transition models, and models that combine elements of several techniques. While combined models are complex, they can be programmed using modern statistical software. The data frequency is daily, and forecasting experiments are run over horizons ranging from 1 to 7 days. Two major conclusions stand out. First, the frequency domain method forecasts the A p index more accurately than any time domain model, including both regressions and neural networks. This finding is very robust, and holds for all forecast horizons. Combining the frequency domain method with other techniques yields a further small improvement in accuracy. Second, the neural network forecasts the solar flux more accurately than any other method, although at short horizons (2 days or less) the regression and net yield similar results. The neural net does best when it includes measures of the long-term component in the data.

  11. Part 2 The Link between GIS and spatial analysis . GIS, spatial econometrics and social science research

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anselin, Luc

    Some ideas are formulated on the challenges presented to GIS, spatial analysis and spatial econometrics that result from recent trends in social science research. These new developments are characterized by a focus on the geography of phenomena. Particular emphasis is placed on the need to extend concepts of space, to broaden the analytical toolbox and to develop software and advance education.

  12. The Anatomy of a Likely Donor: Econometric Evidence on Philanthropy to Higher Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lara, Christen; Johnson, Daniel

    2014-01-01

    In 2011, philanthropic giving to higher education institutions totaled $30.3 billion, an 8.2% increase over the previous year. Roughly, 26% of those funds came from alumni donations. This article builds upon existing economic models to create an econometric model to explain and predict the pattern of alumni giving. We test the model using data…

  13. Econometric Methods for Causal Evaluation of Education Policies and Practices: A Non-Technical Guide

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Schlotter, Martin; Schwerdt, Guido; Woessmann, Ludger

    2011-01-01

    Education policy-makers and practitioners want to know which policies and practices can best achieve their goals. But research that can inform evidence-based policy often requires complex methods to distinguish causation from accidental association. Avoiding econometric jargon and technical detail, this paper explains the main idea and intuition…

  14. Determinants of Educational Achievement in Morocco: A Micro-Econometric Analysis Applied to the TIMSS Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ibourk, Aomar

    2013-01-01

    Based on data from international surveys measuring learning (TIMSS), this article focuses on the analysis of the academic performance Moroccan students. The results of the econometric model show that the students' characteristics, their family environment and school context are key determinants of these performances. The study also shows that the…

  15. Econometric Estimation of the Economic Impact of a University. AIR 1993 Annual Forum Paper.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gana, Rajaram

    This study conducted an econometric analysis of the impact of the University of Delaware (UD), a public, doctoral level institution, on the Delaware economy, particularly the impact of nonresident students. To construct a model the study used historical institutional data from the Office of Institutional Research and Planning at UD and…

  16. An Initial Econometric Consideration of Supply and Demand in the Guaranteed Student Loan Program.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bayus, Barry; Kendis, Kurt

    1982-01-01

    In this econometric model of the Guaranteed Student Loan Program (GSLP), supply is related to banks' liquidity and yield curves, all lenders' economic costs and returns, and Student Loan Marketing Association activity. GSLP demand is based on loan costs, family debt position, and net student need for financial aid. (RW)

  17. The Nexus of Place and Finance in the Analysis of Educational Attainment: A Spatial Econometric Approach

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sutton, Farah

    2012-01-01

    This study examines the spatial distribution of educational attainment and then builds upon current predictive frameworks for understanding patterns of educational attainment by applying a spatial econometric method of analysis. The research from this study enables a new approach to the policy discussion on how to improve educational attainment…

  18. Econometric Methods for Research in Education. NBER Working Paper No. 16003

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Meghir, Costas; Rivkin, Steven G.

    2010-01-01

    This paper reviews some of the econometric methods that have been used in the economics of education. The focus is on understanding how the assumptions made to justify and implement such methods relate to the underlying economic model and the interpretation of the results. We start by considering the estimation of the returns to education both…

  19. Econometric comparisons of liquid rocket engines for dual-fuel advanced earth-to-orbit shuttles

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Martin, J. A.

    1978-01-01

    Econometric analyses of advanced Earth-to-orbit vehicles indicate that there are economic benefits from development of new vehicles beyond the space shuttle as traffic increases. Vehicle studies indicate the advantage of the dual-fuel propulsion in single-stage vehicles. This paper shows the economic effect of incorporating dual-fuel propulsion in advanced vehicles. Several dual-fuel propulsion systems are compared to a baseline hydrogen and oxygen system.

  20. Development and application of econometric demand and supply models for selected Chesapeake Bay seafood products

    SciTech Connect

    Nieves, L.A.; Moe, R.J.

    1984-12-01

    Five models were developed to forecast future Chesapeake seafood product prices, harvest quantities, and resulting income. Annual econometric models are documented for oysters, hard and soft blue crabs, and hard and soft clams. To the degree that data permit, these models represent demand and supply at the retail, wholesale, and harvest levels. The resulting models have broad applications in environmental policy issues and regulatory analyses for the Chesapeake Bay. 37 references, 10 figures, 99 tables.

  1. Econometric issues in testing the age neutrality of health care expenditure.

    PubMed

    Salas, C; Raftery, J P

    2001-10-01

    A recent study by Zweifel et al. (Zweifel P, Felder S, Meiers M. Ageing of the population and health care expenditure: a red herring? Health Economics 1999; 8: 485-496) suggests that age is not related to health care expenditure among the elderly once 'closeness to death' is controlled for. If correct, this finding has major policy implications, but flaws in the econometric analysis undermine its credibility. We highlight two in particular, and propose methods to deal with them.

  2. Hedonic approaches based on spatial econometrics and spatial statistics: application to evaluation of project benefits

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tsutsumi, Morito; Seya, Hajime

    2009-12-01

    This study discusses the theoretical foundation of the application of spatial hedonic approaches—the hedonic approach employing spatial econometrics or/and spatial statistics—to benefits evaluation. The study highlights the limitations of the spatial econometrics approach since it uses a spatial weight matrix that is not employed by the spatial statistics approach. Further, the study presents empirical analyses by applying the Spatial Autoregressive Error Model (SAEM), which is based on the spatial econometrics approach, and the Spatial Process Model (SPM), which is based on the spatial statistics approach. SPMs are conducted based on both isotropy and anisotropy and applied to different mesh sizes. The empirical analysis reveals that the estimated benefits are quite different, especially between isotropic and anisotropic SPM and between isotropic SPM and SAEM; the estimated benefits are similar for SAEM and anisotropic SPM. The study demonstrates that the mesh size does not affect the estimated amount of benefits. Finally, the study provides a confidence interval for the estimated benefits and raises an issue with regard to benefit evaluation.

  3. Land-use change and carbon sinks: Econometric estimation of the carbon sequestration supply function

    SciTech Connect

    Lubowski, Ruben N.; Plantinga, Andrew J.; Stavins, Robert N.

    2001-01-01

    Increased attention by policy makers to the threat of global climate change has brought with it considerable interest in the possibility of encouraging the expansion of forest area as a means of sequestering carbon dioxide. The marginal costs of carbon sequestration or, equivalently, the carbon sequestration supply function will determine the ultimate effects and desirability of policies aimed at enhancing carbon uptake. In particular, marginal sequestration costs are the critical statistic for identifying a cost-effective policy mix to mitigate net carbon dioxide emissions. We develop a framework for conducting an econometric analysis of land use for the forty-eight contiguous United States and employing it to estimate the carbon sequestration supply function. By estimating the opportunity costs of land on the basis of econometric evidence of landowners' actual behavior, we aim to circumvent many of the shortcomings of previous sequestration cost assessments. By conducting the first nationwide econometric estimation of sequestration costs, endogenizing prices for land-based commodities, and estimating land-use transition probabilities in a framework that explicitly considers the range of land-use alternatives, we hope to provide better estimates eventually of the true costs of large-scale carbon sequestration efforts. In this way, we seek to add to understanding of the costs and potential of this strategy for addressing the threat of global climate change.

  4. Econometrically calibrated computable general equilibrium models: Applications to the analysis of energy and climate politics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schu, Kathryn L.

    Economy-energy-environment models are the mainstay of economic assessments of policies to reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, yet their empirical basis is often criticized as being weak. This thesis addresses these limitations by constructing econometrically calibrated models in two policy areas. The first is a 35-sector computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the U.S. economy which analyzes the uncertain impacts of CO2 emission abatement. Econometric modeling of sectors' nested constant elasticity of substitution (CES) cost functions based on a 45-year price-quantity dataset yields estimates of capital-labor-energy-material input substitution elasticities and biases of technical change that are incorporated into the CGE model. I use the estimated standard errors and variance-covariance matrices to construct the joint distribution of the parameters of the economy's supply side, which I sample to perform Monte Carlo baseline and counterfactual runs of the model. The resulting probabilistic abatement cost estimates highlight the importance of the uncertainty in baseline emissions growth. The second model is an equilibrium simulation of the market for new vehicles which I use to assess the response of vehicle prices, sales and mileage to CO2 taxes and increased corporate average fuel economy (CAFE) standards. I specify an econometric model of a representative consumer's vehicle preferences using a nested CES expenditure function which incorporates mileage and other characteristics in addition to prices, and develop a novel calibration algorithm to link this structure to vehicle model supplies by manufacturers engaged in Bertrand competition. CO2 taxes' effects on gasoline prices reduce vehicle sales and manufacturers' profits if vehicles' mileage is fixed, but these losses shrink once mileage can be adjusted. Accelerated CAFE standards induce manufacturers to pay fines for noncompliance rather than incur the higher costs of radical mileage improvements

  5. Econometrics and data of the 9 sector Dynamic General Equilibrium Model. Volume III. Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Berndt, E.R.; Fraumeni, B.M.; Hudson, E.A.; Jorgenson, D.W.; Stoker, T.M.

    1981-03-01

    This report presents the econometrics and data of the 9 sector Dynamic General Equilibrium Model. There are two key components of 9DGEM - the model of household behavior and the model of produconcrneer behavior. The household model is concerned with decisions on consumption, saving, labor supply and the composition of consumption. The producer model is concerned with output price formation and determination of input patterns and purchases for each of the nine producing sectors. These components form the behavioral basis of DGEM. The remaining components are concerned with constraints, balance conditions, accounting, and government revenues and expenditures (these elements are developed in the report on the model specification).

  6. Gas or electricity, which is cheaper?: An econometric approach with application to Australian expenditure data

    SciTech Connect

    Bartels, R.; Fiebig, D.G.; Plumb, M.H.

    1996-12-31

    This paper introduces a new econometric approach to obtaining comparative estimates of the expenditures made on different end uses by households using either electricity or gas. A large sample of Austrialian households was used to derive precise estimates for space heating, water heating and cooking. Households using electricity for electricity for main heating spend less than similiar households using gas; for cooking, households using gas spend less than those using electricity in most regions; for water heating the results are mixed. The authors describe the methodology used to equate households and energy costs for the comparative analysis. 25 refs., 8 tabs.

  7. Much ado about two: reconsidering retransformation and the two-part model in health econometrics.

    PubMed

    Mullahy, J

    1998-06-01

    In health economics applications involving outcomes (y) and covariates (x), it is often the case that the central inferential problems of interest involve E[y/x] and its associated partial effects or elasticities. Many such outcomes have two fundamental statistical properties: y > or = 0; and the outcome y = 0 is observed with sufficient frequency that the zeros cannot be ignored econometrically. This paper (1) describes circumstances where the standard two-part model with homoskedastic retransformation will fail to provide consistent inferences about important policy parameters; and (2) demonstrates some alternative approaches that are likely to prove helpful in applications.

  8. Purchased child care, optimal family size and mother's employment: theory and econometric analysis.

    PubMed

    Ermisch, J F

    1989-09-01

    This paper develops a model of family size decisions in which couples choose explicitly a combination of mother's time and purchased childcare (childminder, nanies) for the care and rearing of children. The theoretical model implies that the impact of the mother's wage on her complete fertility varies with the market price of childcare, and that this effect increases (becoming less negative or more positive) with the level of her wage. Econometric analysis of British micro-data confirms the main predictions of the model.

  9. Why worry about awareness in choice problems? Econometric analysis of screening for cervical cancer.

    PubMed

    Belkar, Rochelle; Fiebig, Denzil G; Haas, Marion; Viney, Rosalie

    2006-01-01

    The decision to undertake a screening test is conditional upon awareness of screening. From an econometric perspective there is a potential selection problem, if no distinction is made between aware and unaware non-screeners. This paper explores this problem through analysis of the determinants of cervical screening in Australia. Cervical cancer is one of the most preventable and curable forms of cancer. Since 1991 there has been a concerted effort in Australia to recommend and encourage women to have Pap smears every two years. The success of this program can be partly gauged by exploring the determinants of screening for cervical cancer. Using unit record data from the 1995 National Health Survey, an econometric model is developed for whether women have ever screened or not. A proportion of women in the sample contend that they have never heard of a Pap test. The analysis characterizes this group of women and accounts for their presence in the modelling. The paper demonstrates failing to model awareness can result in inconsistent parameter estimates even when the degree of censoring in the sample is relatively small.

  10. First-Year Study Success in Economics and Econometrics: The Role of Gender, Motivation, and Math Skills

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Arnold, Ivo J. M.; Rowaan, Wietske

    2014-01-01

    In this study, the authors investigate the relationships among gender, math skills, motivation, and study success in economics and econometrics. They find that female students have stronger intrinsic motivation, yet lower study confidence than their male counterparts. They also find weak evidence for a gender gap over the entire first-year…

  11. A Simultaneous Equations Econometric Model of the Determinants of Vocational and Non-Vocational Spending and Enrollment. Final Report.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Clement, Meredith O.; Gustman, Alan L.

    Using an econometric model of four simultaneous equations for State cross-sectional data and of two equations for city cross-sections, the following determinants were estimated: (1) current spending on education, (2) the ratio of vocational to current educational expenditures, (3) the over-all enrollment rate in public schools, and (4) the…

  12. Econometric Mediation Analyses: Identifying the Sources of Treatment Effects from Experimentally Estimated Production Technologies with Unmeasured and Mismeasured Inputs.

    PubMed

    Heckman, James; Pinto, Rodrigo

    2015-01-01

    This paper presents an econometric mediation analysis. It considers identification of production functions and the sources of output effects (treatment effects) from experimental interventions when some inputs are mismeasured and others are entirely omitted. JEL Code: D24, C21, C43, C38.

  13. HIV prevalence and poverty in Africa: micro- and macro-econometric evidences applied to Burkina Faso.

    PubMed

    Lachaud, Jean-Pierre

    2007-05-01

    Based on the data of the Demographic and Health Survey, and of the Household Priority Survey, carried out in 2003, the present study, examining the factors of HIV prevalence in Burkina Faso, provides two conclusions. Firstly, the fight against poverty is not necessarily a means of reducing simultaneously and drastically HIV/AIDS prevalence, an assertion based on several elements of empirical analysis. First of all, the micro-econometric estimates of the probit models suggest a positive relationship between HIV prevalence in adult women and men, and living standards of individuals. Then, the macro-econometric approach reveals the existence of a positive (negative) relationship between, on the one hand, the level of regional HIV prevalence, and, on the other hand, the average monetary provincial standard of living (poverty) of households. At the same time, the relationship between HIV prevalence and poverty, apprehended at the regional level, is not linear. Secondly, and correlatively, the relationship between HIV prevalence and poverty is called into question. First of all, some structural factors may contribute to a distortion of the relationship between resources of households and the prevalence of HIV/AIDS. This may be due, on the one hand, to the persistence of cognitive and behavioural factors inherent in a traditional society, and in particular, to the fact that the social construction of female attributes and roles confers to men a statute of "decision-makers" with regard to sexual intercourse, while the persistence of secular beliefs contributes to minimizing the perception of HIV/AIDS in terms of risk, independently of standards of living. In addition, the enclavement of Burkina Faso required development of road and railway traffic with neighbouring countries, in particular Côte d'Ivoire. Therefore, it may be that the structural conditions of the process of development of Burkina Faso, concomitant with significant flows of the exchange of goods, services

  14. Evaluation of factors affecting prescribing behaviors, in iran pharmaceutical market by econometric methods.

    PubMed

    Tahmasebi, Nima; Kebriaeezadeh, Abbas

    2015-01-01

    Prescribing behavior of physicians affected by many factors. The present study is aimed at discovering the simultaneous effects of the evaluated factors (including: price, promotion and demographic characteristics of physicians) and quantification of these effects. In order to estimate these effects, Fluvoxamine (an antidepressant drug) was selected and the model was figured out by panel data method in econometrics. We found that insurance and advertisement respectively are the most effective on increasing the frequency of prescribing, whilst negative correlation was observed between price and the frequency of prescribing a drug. Also brand type is more sensitive to negative effect of price than to generic. Furthermore, demand for a prescription drug is related with physician demographics (age and sex). According to the results of this study, pharmaceutical companies should pay more attention to the demographic characteristics of physicians (age and sex) and their advertisement and pricing strategies.

  15. Price and income elasticities of energy demand: Some estimates for Kuwait using two econometric models

    SciTech Connect

    Al-Mutairi, N.H.; Eltony, M.N.

    1995-12-31

    This paper estimates the demand for energy in Kuwait for the period 1965-1989 using two econometric models: a cointegration and error correction model (ECM) and a simultaneous-equation model (SEM). The results obtained from both models are similar. It is found that the energy demand is inelastic with respect to price in the short and long run, and while it is elastic in the long run, the energy demand is inelastic with respect to income in the short run. Both models` validation shows that the ECM performed better in replicating the past than the simultaneous model, suggesting the need to use the ECM to identify future prospects for energy demand in Kuwait.

  16. Cyberspace Security Econometrics System (CSES) - U.S. Copyright TXu 1-901-039

    SciTech Connect

    Abercrombie, Robert K; Schlicher, Bob G; Sheldon, Frederick T; Lantz, Margaret W; Hauser, Katie R

    2014-01-01

    Information security continues to evolve in response to disruptive changes with a persistent focus on information-centric controls and a healthy debate about balancing endpoint and network protection, with a goal of improved enterprise/business risk management. Economic uncertainty, intensively collaborative styles of work, virtualization, increased outsourcing and ongoing compliance pressures require careful consideration and adaptation. The Cyberspace Security Econometrics System (CSES) provides a measure (i.e., a quantitative indication) of reliability, performance, and/or safety of a system that accounts for the criticality of each requirement as a function of one or more stakeholders interests in that requirement. For a given stakeholder, CSES accounts for the variance that may exist among the stakes one attaches to meeting each requirement. The basis, objectives and capabilities for the CSES including inputs/outputs as well as the structural and mathematical underpinnings contained in this copyright.

  17. Waste production and regional growth of marine activities an econometric model.

    PubMed

    Bramati, Maria Caterina

    2016-11-15

    Coastal regions are characterized by intense human activity and climatic pressures, often intensified by competing interests in the use of marine waters. To assess the effect of public spending on the regional economy, an econometric model is here proposed. Not only are the regional investment and the climatic risks included in the model, but also variables related to the anthropogenic pressure, such as population, economic activities and waste production. Feedback effects of economic and demographic expansion on the pollution of coastal areas are also considered. It is found that dangerous waste increases with growing shipping and transportation activities and with growing population density in non-touristic coastal areas. On the other hand, the amount of non-dangerous wastes increases with marine mining, defense and offshore energy production activities. However, lower waste production occurs in areas where aquaculture and touristic industry are more exploited, and accompanied by increasing regional investment in waste disposal.

  18. Retail gas prices and its effect on actual automobile purchases: An econometric analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shaw, Brian F., Sr.

    Weekly aggregate vehicle purchase and retail gasoline price data, over the time span of 2001.01 to 2005.52, were used to determine in the Phoenix, Arizona metropolitan area if the price of gasoline helped to predict vehicle purchases. This time period and data set included the effects of rapidly changing technology and rapidly increasing retail gasoline prices. This time series econometric analysis took advantage of the Phillips-Perron and Augmented Dickey Fuller tests for stationarity, as well as the concept of Granger causality to answer this question. Short-run relationships were present and were not contingent on the gender of the purchaser. The long-run results were affirmative for female purchasers and there was not enough evidence to conclude the same for male purchasers.

  19. A joint econometric analysis of seat belt use and crash-related injury severity.

    PubMed

    Eluru, Naveen; Bhat, Chandra R

    2007-09-01

    This paper formulates a comprehensive econometric structure that recognizes two important issues in crash-related injury severity analysis. First, the impact of a factor on injury severity may be moderated by various observed and unobserved variables specific to an individual or to a crash. Second, seat belt use is likely to be endogenous to injury severity. That is, it is possible that intrinsically unsafe drivers do not wear seat belts and are the ones likely to be involved in high injury severity crashes because of their unsafe driving habits. The preceding issues are considered in the current research effort through the development of a comprehensive model of seat belt use and injury severity that takes the form of a joint correlated random coefficients binary-ordered response system. To our knowledge, this is the first instance of such a model formulation and application not only in the safety analysis literature, but in the econometrics literature in general. The empirical analysis is based on the 2003 General Estimates System (GES) data base. Several types of variables are considered to explain seat belt use and injury severity levels, including driver characteristics, vehicle characteristics, roadway design attributes, environmental factors, and crash characteristics. The results, in addition to confirming the effects of various explanatory variables, also highlight the importance of (a) considering the moderating effects of unobserved individual/crash-related factors on the determinants of injury severity and (b) seat belt use endogeneity. From a policy standpoint, the results suggest that seat belt non-users, when apprehended in the act, should perhaps be subjected to both a fine (to increase the chances that they wear seat belts) as well as mandatory enrollment in a defensive driving course (to attempt to change their aggressive driving behaviors).

  20. The impact of tropospheric ozone pollution on trial plot winter wheat yields in Great Britain - an econometric approach.

    PubMed

    Kaliakatsou, Evridiki; Bell, J Nigel B; Thirtle, Colin; Rose, Daniel; Power, Sally A

    2010-05-01

    Numerous experiments have demonstrated reductions in the yields of cereal crops due to tropospheric O(3), with losses of up to 25%. However, the only British econometric study on O(3) impacts on winter wheat yields, found that a 10% increase in AOT40 would decrease yields by only 0.23%. An attempt is made here to reconcile these observations by developing AOT40 maps for Great Britain and matching levels with a large number of standardised trial plot wheat yields from many sites over a 13-year period. Panel estimates (repeated measures on the same plots with time) show a 0.54% decrease in yields and it is hypothesised that plant breeders may have inadvertently selected for O(3) tolerance in wheat. Some support for this is provided by fumigations of cultivars of differing introduction dates. A case is made for the use of econometric as well as experimental studies in prediction of air pollution induced crop loss.

  1. Does a hospital's quality depend on the quality of other hospitals? A spatial econometrics approach.

    PubMed

    Gravelle, Hugh; Santos, Rita; Siciliani, Luigi

    2014-11-01

    We examine whether a hospital's quality is affected by the quality provided by other hospitals in the same market. We first sketch a theoretical model with regulated prices and derive conditions on demand and cost functions which determine whether a hospital will increase its quality if its rivals increase their quality. We then apply spatial econometric methods to a sample of English hospitals in 2009-10 and a set of 16 quality measures including mortality rates, readmission, revision and redo rates, and three patient reported indicators, to examine the relationship between the quality of hospitals. We find that a hospital's quality is positively associated with the quality of its rivals for seven out of the sixteen quality measures. There are no statistically significant negative associations. In those cases where there is a significant positive association, an increase in rivals' quality by 10% increases a hospital's quality by 1.7% to 2.9%. The finding suggests that for some quality measures a policy which improves the quality in one hospital will have positive spillover effects on the quality in other hospitals.

  2. The Standard Model in the history of the Natural Sciences, Econometrics, and the social sciences

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fisher, W. P., Jr.

    2010-07-01

    In the late 18th and early 19th centuries, scientists appropriated Newton's laws of motion as a model for the conduct of any other field of investigation that would purport to be a science. This early form of a Standard Model eventually informed the basis of analogies for the mathematical expression of phenomena previously studied qualitatively, such as cohesion, affinity, heat, light, electricity, and magnetism. James Clerk Maxwell is known for his repeated use of a formalized version of this method of analogy in lectures, teaching, and the design of experiments. Economists transferring skills learned in physics made use of the Standard Model, especially after Maxwell demonstrated the value of conceiving it in abstract mathematics instead of as a concrete and literal mechanical analogy. Haavelmo's probability approach in econometrics and R. Fisher's Statistical Methods for Research Workers brought a statistical approach to bear on the Standard Model, quietly reversing the perspective of economics and the social sciences relative to that of physics. Where physicists, and Maxwell in particular, intuited scientific method as imposing stringent demands on the quality and interrelations of data, instruments, and theory in the name of inferential and comparative stability, statistical models and methods disconnected theory from data by removing the instrument as an essential component. New possibilities for reconnecting economics and the social sciences to Maxwell's sense of the method of analogy are found in Rasch's probabilistic models for measurement.

  3. Supply and demand for wood as a source of energy in Zambia: An econometric analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Mupimpila, C.

    1993-01-01

    This study examines the status of biomass energy in Zambia. In its current usage, the concept of biomass energy often implies woodfuel because woodfuel is the main biomass energy. This study develops an econometric model of household woodfuel demand and also evaluates the supply of woodfuel in Zambia. The study finds that there are significant sectoral differences in woodfuel demand between the rural and urban sectors. In the rural sector, inflation is by far the most significant determinant of household woodfuel demand. The coefficients on inflation are statistically significant at better than the one percent level and also have expected positive signs. In the urban sector, inflation is again by far the most significant determinant of woodfuel demand. However, in the urban sector, household income and woodfuel price are also significant determinants of demand. The coefficients on inflation, household income, and woodfuel price are all significant at better than the one percent level and have expected signs. The income elasticity of woodfuel demand is positive, suggesting that in the short-run, woodfuel is a normal good. However, the elasticity of woodfuel demand with respect to growth in investment is negative, indicating that long-run structural change in the economy reduces woodfuel demand.

  4. An Assessment of Japanese Carbon Tax Reform Using the E3MG Econometric Model

    PubMed Central

    Lee, Soocheol; Pollitt, Hector; Ueta, Kazuhiro

    2012-01-01

    This paper analyses the potential economic and environmental effects of carbon taxation in Japan using the E3MG model, a global macroeconometric model constructed by the University of Cambridge and Cambridge Econometrics. The paper approaches the issues by considering first the impacts of the carbon tax in Japan introduced in 2012 and then the measures necessary to reduce Japan's emissions in line with its Copenhagen pledge of −25% compared to 1990 levels. The results from the model suggest that FY2012 Tax Reform has only a small impact on emission levels and no significant impact on GDP and employment. The potential costs of reducing emissions to meet the 25% reduction target for 2020 are quite modest, but noticeable. GDP falls by around 1.2% compared to the baseline and employment by 0.4% compared to the baseline. But this could be offset, with some potential economic benefits, if revenues are recycled efficiently. This paper considers two revenue recycling scenarios. The most positive outcome is if revenues are used both to reduce income tax rates and to increase investment in energy efficiency. This paper shows there could be double dividend effects, if Carbon Tax Reform is properly designed. PMID:23365531

  5. An assessment of Japanese carbon tax reform using the E3MG econometric model.

    PubMed

    Lee, Soocheol; Pollitt, Hector; Ueta, Kazuhiro

    2012-01-01

    This paper analyses the potential economic and environmental effects of carbon taxation in Japan using the E3MG model, a global macroeconometric model constructed by the University of Cambridge and Cambridge Econometrics. The paper approaches the issues by considering first the impacts of the carbon tax in Japan introduced in 2012 and then the measures necessary to reduce Japan's emissions in line with its Copenhagen pledge of -25% compared to 1990 levels. The results from the model suggest that FY2012 Tax Reform has only a small impact on emission levels and no significant impact on GDP and employment. The potential costs of reducing emissions to meet the 25% reduction target for 2020 are quite modest, but noticeable. GDP falls by around 1.2% compared to the baseline and employment by 0.4% compared to the baseline. But this could be offset, with some potential economic benefits, if revenues are recycled efficiently. This paper considers two revenue recycling scenarios. The most positive outcome is if revenues are used both to reduce income tax rates and to increase investment in energy efficiency. This paper shows there could be double dividend effects, if Carbon Tax Reform is properly designed.

  6. Spatial econometric model of natural disaster impacts on human migration in vulnerable regions of Mexico.

    PubMed

    Saldaña-Zorrilla, Sergio O; Sandberg, Krister

    2009-10-01

    Mexico's vast human and environmental diversity offers an initial framework for comprehending some of the prevailing great disparities between rich and poor. Its socio-economic constructed vulnerability to climatic events serves to expand this understanding. Based on a spatial econometric model, this paper tests the contribution of natural disasters to stimulating the emigration process in vulnerable regions of Mexico. Besides coping and adaptive capacity, it assesses the effects of economic losses due to disasters as well as the adverse production and trade conditions of the 1990s on emigration rates in 2000 at the municipality level. Weather-related disasters were responsible for approximately 80 per cent of economic losses in Mexico between 1980 and 2005, mostly in the agricultural sector, which continues to dominate many parts of the country. It is dramatic that this sector generates around only four per cent of gross domestic product but provides a livelihood to about one-quarter of the national population. It is no wonder, therefore, that most emigration from this country arises in vulnerable rural areas.

  7. The core determinants of health expenditure in the African context: some econometric evidence for policy.

    PubMed

    Murthy, Vasudeva N R; Okunade, Albert A

    2009-06-01

    This paper, using cross-sectional data from 44 (83% of all) African countries for year 2001, presents econometric model estimates linking real per-capita health expenditure (HEXP) to a host of economic and non-economic factors. The empirical results of OLS and robust LAE estimators indicate that real per-capita GDP (PRGDP) and real per-capita foreign aid (FAID) resources are both core and statistically significant correlates of HEXP. Our empirical results suggest that health care in the African context is technically, a necessity rather than a luxury good (for the OECD countries). This suggests that the goal of health system in Africa is primarily 'physiological' or 'curative' rather than 'caring' or 'pampering'. The positive association of HEXP with FAID hints that external resource inflows targeting health could be instrumental for spurring economic progress in good policy environments. Most African countries until the late 1990s experienced economic and political instability, and faced stringent structural adjustment mandates of the major international financial institution lenders for economic development. Therefore, our finding a positive effect of FAID on HEXP could suggest that external resource inflows softened some of the macroeconomic fiscal deficit impacts on HEXP in the 2000s. Policy implications of country-specific elasticity estimates are given.

  8. The Impact of the Internet on Health Consultation Market Concentration: An Econometric Analysis of Secondary Data

    PubMed Central

    2016-01-01

    Background Many markets have traditionally been dominated by a few best-selling products, and this is also the case for the health care industry. However, we do not know whether the market will be more or less concentrated when health care services are delivered online (known as E-consultation), nor do we know how to reduce the concentration of the E-consultation market. Objective The aim of this study was to investigate the concentration of the E-consultation market and how to reduce its concentration through information disclosure mechanisms (online reputation and self-representation). Methods We employed a secondary data econometric analysis using transaction data obtained from an E-consultation Website (haodf.com) for three diseases (infantile pneumonia, diabetes, and pancreatic cancer) from 2008 to 2015. We included 2439 doctors in the analysis. Results The E-consultation market largely follows the 20/80 principle, namely that approximately 80% of orders are fulfilled by nearly 20% of doctors. This is much higher than the offline health care market. Meanwhile, the market served by doctors with strong online reputations (beta=0.207, P<.001) or strong online self-representation (beta=0.386, P<.001) is less concentrated. Conclusions When health care services are delivered online, the market will be more concentrated (known as the “Superstar” effect), indicating poor service efficiency for society as a whole. To reduce market concentration, E-consultation websites should provide important design elements such as ratings of doctors (user feedback), articles contributed by doctors, and free consultation services (online representation). A possible and important way to reduce the market concentration of the E-consultation market is to accumulate enough highly rated or highly self-represented doctors. PMID:27793793

  9. Peer influences on drug self-administration: an econometric analysis in socially housed rats.

    PubMed

    Peitz, Geoffrey W; Strickland, Justin C; Pitts, Elizabeth G; Foley, Mark; Tonidandel, Scott; Smith, Mark A

    2013-04-01

    Social-learning theories of substance use propose that members of peer groups influence the drug use of other members by selectively modeling, reinforcing, and punishing either abstinence-related or drug-related behaviors. The objective of the present study was to examine the social influences on cocaine self-administration in isolated and socially housed rats, under conditions where the socially housed rats were tested simultaneously with their partner in the same chamber. To this end, male rats were obtained at weaning and housed in isolated or pair-housed conditions for 6 weeks. Rats were then implanted with intravenous catheters and cocaine self-administration was examined in custom-built operant conditioning chambers that allowed two rats to be tested simultaneously. For some socially housed subjects, both rats had simultaneous access to cocaine; for others, only one rat of the pair had access to cocaine. An econometric analysis was applied to the data, and the reinforcing strength of cocaine was measured by examining consumption (i.e. quantity demanded) and elasticity of demand as a function of price, which was manipulated by varying the dose and ratio requirements on a fixed ratio schedule of reinforcement. Cocaine consumption decreased as a function of price in all groups. Elasticity of demand did not vary across groups, but consumption was significantly lower in socially housed rats paired with a rat without access to cocaine. These data suggest that the presence of an abstaining peer decreases the reinforcing strength of cocaine, thus supporting the development of social interventions in drug abuse prevention and treatment programs.

  10. Food preparation patterns in German family households. An econometric approach with time budget data.

    PubMed

    Möser, Anke

    2010-08-01

    In Germany, the rising importance of out-of-home consumption, increasing usage of convenience products and decreasing knowledge of younger individuals how to prepare traditional dishes can be seen as obvious indicators for shifting patterns in food preparation. In this paper, econometric analyses are used to shed more light on the factors which may influence the time spent on food preparation in two-parent family households with children. Two time budget surveys, carried out 1991/92 and 2001/02 through the German National Statistical Office, provide the necessary data. Time budget data analyses reveal that over the last ten years the time spent on food preparation in Germany has decreased. The results point out that time resources of a household, for example gainful employment of the parents, significantly affect the amount of time spent on food preparation. The analysis confirms further that there is a more equal allocation of time spent on cooking, baking or laying the table between women and men in the last ten years. Due to changing attitudes and conceivably adaption of economic conditions, differences in time devoted to food preparation seem to have vanished between Eastern and Western Germany. Greater time spent on eating out in Germany as well as decreasing time spent on food preparation at home reveal that the food provisioning of families is no longer a primarily private task of the households themselves but needs more public attention and institutional offers and help. Among other points, the possibility of addressing mothers' lack of time as well as growing "food illiteracy" of children and young adults are discussed.

  11. Education and the decision to migrate: an econometric analysis of migration in Venezuela.

    PubMed

    Levy, M B; Wadycki, W J

    1974-03-01

    Interstate labor force migration in Venezuela was estimated for 3 groups of migrants classified by their own educational levels. Regional educational levels and education-specific average wages were included as explanatory variables in order to distinguish between the various effects of education on migration and to estimate differences in the response of educated and uneducated migrants to other explanatory variables. The basic model resembled that used in other econometric studies of migration; migration was assumed to be a function of a number of origin and destination state characteristics which were believed likely to represent costs and benefits of living in various states for most persons. Migration rates rather than absolute numbers were the dependent variable. Zellner's regression technique was employed, and appropriate F statistics were used to test the null hypothesis of equal response of migrants to each of the explanatory variables across educational levels. A substantial proportion of the variance in migration rates was explained for each level of education. The results showed that educated members of the labor force in Venezuela are more mobile and also that there are significant differences in the responses of educated and uneducated migrants to variables which reflect the costs and benefits of alternative locations. The educated were less deterred by increased distance and more responsive to wage rates in alternative locations. The educated appear to be more mobile because of their greater access to information and greater incentives to make additional investments in search of better opportunities. Both educated and uneducated migrants are attracted to more populated regions but the elasticity is almost twice as high for the educated. Educational opportunity was found to be an important locational advantage for those who already had attended secondary school. The less educated are less likely to move to states with high educational levels, perhaps

  12. Selection bias in species distribution models: An econometric approach on forest trees based on structural modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Martin-StPaul, N. K.; Ay, J. S.; Guillemot, J.; Doyen, L.; Leadley, P.

    2014-12-01

    Species distribution models (SDMs) are widely used to study and predict the outcome of global changes on species. In human dominated ecosystems the presence of a given species is the result of both its ecological suitability and human footprint on nature such as land use choices. Land use choices may thus be responsible for a selection bias in the presence/absence data used in SDM calibration. We present a structural modelling approach (i.e. based on structural equation modelling) that accounts for this selection bias. The new structural species distribution model (SSDM) estimates simultaneously land use choices and species responses to bioclimatic variables. A land use equation based on an econometric model of landowner choices was joined to an equation of species response to bioclimatic variables. SSDM allows the residuals of both equations to be dependent, taking into account the possibility of shared omitted variables and measurement errors. We provide a general description of the statistical theory and a set of applications on forest trees over France using databases of climate and forest inventory at different spatial resolution (from 2km to 8km). We also compared the outputs of the SSDM with outputs of a classical SDM (i.e. Biomod ensemble modelling) in terms of bioclimatic response curves and potential distributions under current climate and climate change scenarios. The shapes of the bioclimatic response curves and the modelled species distribution maps differed markedly between SSDM and classical SDMs, with contrasted patterns according to species and spatial resolutions. The magnitude and directions of these differences were dependent on the correlations between the errors from both equations and were highest for higher spatial resolutions. A first conclusion is that the use of classical SDMs can potentially lead to strong miss-estimation of the actual and future probability of presence modelled. Beyond this selection bias, the SSDM we propose represents

  13. Evaluation for Water Conservation in Agriculture: Using a Multi-Method Econometric Approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ramirez, A.; Eaton, D. J.

    2012-12-01

    Since the 1960's, farmers have implemented new irrigation technology to increase crop production and planting acreage. At that time, technology responded to the increasing demand for food due to world population growth. Currently, the problem of decreased water supply threatens to limit agricultural production. Uncertain precipitation patterns, from prolonged droughts to irregular rains, will continue to hamper planting operations, and farmers are further limited by an increased competition for water from rapidly growing urban areas. Irrigation technology promises to reduce water usage while maintaining or increasing farm yields. The challenge for water managers and policy makers is to quantify and redistribute these efficiency gains as a source of 'new water.' Using conservation in farming as a source of 'new water' requires accurately quantifying the efficiency gains of irrigation technology under farmers' actual operations and practices. From a water resource management and policy perspective, the efficiency gains from conservation in farming can be redistributed to municipal, industrial and recreational uses. This paper presents a methodology that water resource managers can use to statistically verify the water savings attributable to conservation technology. The specific conservation technology examined in this study is precision leveling, and the study includes a mixed-methods approach using four different econometric models: Ordinary Least Squares, Fixed Effects, Propensity Score Matching, and Hierarchical Linear Models. These methods are used for ex-post program evaluation where random assignment is not possible, and they could be employed to evaluate agricultural conservation programs, where participation is often self-selected. The principal method taken in this approach is Hierarchical Linear Models (HLM), a useful model for agriculture because it incorporates the hierarchical nature of the data (fields, tenants, and landowners) as well as crop rotation

  14. An econometric investigation of the sunspot number record since the year 1700 and its prediction into the 22nd century

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Travaglini, Guido

    2015-09-01

    Solar activity, as measured by the yearly revisited time series of sunspot numbers (SSN) for the period 1700-2014 (Clette et al., 2014), undergoes in this paper a triple statistical and econometric checkup. The conclusions are that the SSN sequence: (1) is best modeled as a signal that features nonlinearity in mean and variance, long memory, mean reversion, 'threshold' symmetry, and stationarity; (2) is best described as a discrete damped harmonic oscillator which linearly approximates the flux-transport dynamo model; (3) its prediction well into the 22nd century testifies of a substantial fall of the SSN centered around the year 2030. In addition, the first and last Gleissberg cycles show almost the same peak number and height during the period considered, yet the former slightly prevails when measured by means of the estimated smoother. All of these conclusions are achieved by making use of modern tools developed in the field of Financial Econometrics and of two new proposed procedures for signal smoothing and prediction.

  15. Macro-econometric model of the Nigerian economy: a simulated analysis of oil shocks in a development context

    SciTech Connect

    Usip, E.E.E.

    1984-01-01

    The precarious position of Nigeria in being a one-resource (oil) based economy in terms of revenue generation has become a major cause of concern for the experts and political pundits. In this study, the author seeks to explore further the empirical basis for this concern in two stages. First, a macro-econometric model of Nigeria was constructed and evaluated. The model highlights the various channels through which the oil sector influences the rest of the economy. Economic theory, econometric techniques, existing fund of knowledge in the practice, computer simulation, and the institutional framework of Nigeria were brought to bear upon the modeling process. In the second stage, the resulting simulation model was used to examine the sensitivity of the economy to the leading sector (oil) as well as the growth potential of Nigeria up to 1986. The crucial question that was addressed is: will the oil sector be able to support a continuing economic growth of Nigeria in the absence of policy initiatives to diversify the revenue base of the economy. Although the empirical findings are hypothetical, they do have far-reaching implications for Nigeria's growth prospects and political stability.

  16. The Credibility Revolution in Empirical Economics: How Better Research Design is Taking the Con out of Econometrics. NBER Working Paper No. 15794

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Angrist, Joshua; Pischke, Jorn-Steffen

    2010-01-01

    This essay reviews progress in empirical economics since Leamer'rs (1983) critique. Leamer highlighted the benefits of sensitivity analysis, a procedure in which researchers show how their results change with changes in specification or functional form. Sensitivity analysis has had a salutary but not a revolutionary effect on econometric practice.…

  17. Perspectives on econometric modelling to inform policy: a UK qualitative case study of minimum unit pricing of alcohol

    PubMed Central

    Bond, Lyndal; Hilton, Shona

    2014-01-01

    Background: Novel policy interventions may lack evaluation-based evidence. Considerations to introduce minimum unit pricing (MUP) of alcohol in the UK were informed by econometric modelling (the ‘Sheffield model’). We aim to investigate policy stakeholders’ views of the utility of modelling studies for public health policy. Methods: In-depth qualitative interviews with 36 individuals involved in MUP policy debates (purposively sampled to include civil servants, politicians, academics, advocates and industry-related actors) were conducted and thematically analysed. Results: Interviewees felt familiar with modelling studies and often displayed detailed understandings of the Sheffield model. Despite this, many were uneasy about the extent to which the Sheffield model could be relied on for informing policymaking and preferred traditional evaluations. A tension was identified between this preference for post hoc evaluations and a desire for evidence derived from local data, with modelling seen to offer high external validity. MUP critics expressed concern that the Sheffield model did not adequately capture the ‘real life’ world of the alcohol market, which was conceptualized as a complex and, to some extent, inherently unpredictable system. Communication of modelling results was considered intrinsically difficult but presenting an appropriate picture of the uncertainties inherent in modelling was viewed as desirable. There was general enthusiasm for increased use of econometric modelling to inform future policymaking but an appreciation that such evidence should only form one input into the process. Conclusion: Modelling studies are valued by policymakers as they provide contextually relevant evidence for novel policies, but tensions exist with views of traditional evaluation-based evidence. PMID:24367068

  18. Inequality, race, and mortality in U.S. cities: a political and econometric review of Deaton and Lubotsky (56:6, 1139-1153, 2003).

    PubMed

    Ash, Michael; Robinson, Dean E

    2009-06-01

    Our replication of Deaton and Lubotsky's [(2003). Mortality, inequality and race in American cities and states. Social Science & Medicine, 56.] study "Mortality, Inequality and Race in American Cities and States" identifies a coding error in the econometric analysis in the original paper. Correcting the error changes the basic results of the paper with respect to inequality and mortality in a relevant and substantive way. We also propose an alternative interpretation of the other main result of the paper regarding racial composition and mortality.

  19. Characterizing China's energy consumption with selective economic factors and energy-resource endowment: a spatial econometric approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jiang, Lei; Ji, Minhe; Bai, Ling

    2014-09-01

    Coupled with intricate regional interactions, the provincial disparity of energy-resource endowment and other economic conditions in China have created spatially complex energy consumption patterns that require analyses beyond the traditional ones. To distill the spatial effect out of the resource and economic factors on China's energy consumption, this study recast the traditional econometric model in a spatial context. Several analytic steps were taken to reveal different aspects of the issue. Per capita energy consumption (AVEC) at the provincial level was first mapped to reveal spatial clusters of high energy consumption being located in either well developed or energy resourceful regions. This visual spatial autocorrelation pattern of AVEC was quantitatively tested to confirm its existence among Chinese provinces. A Moran scatterplot was employed to further display a relatively centralized trend occurring in those provinces that had parallel AVEC, revealing a spatial structure with attraction among high-high or low-low regions and repellency among high-low or low-high regions. By a comparison between the ordinary least square (OLS) model and its spatial econometric counterparts, a spatial error model (SEM) was selected to analyze the impact of major economic determinants on AVEC. While the analytic results revealed a significant positive correlation between AVEC and economic development, other determinants showed some intricate influential patterns. The provinces endowed with rich energy reserves were inclined to consume much more energy than those otherwise, whereas changing the economic structure by increasing the proportion of secondary and tertiary industries also tended to consume more energy. Both situations seem to underpin the fact that these provinces were largely trapped in the economies that were supported by technologies of low energy efficiency during the period, while other parts of the country were rapidly modernized by adopting advanced

  20. Characterizing China's energy consumption with selective economic factors and energy-resource endowment: a spatial econometric approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jiang, Lei; Ji, Minhe; Bai, Ling

    2015-06-01

    Coupled with intricate regional interactions, the provincial disparity of energy-resource endowment and other economic conditions in China have created spatially complex energy consumption patterns that require analyses beyond the traditional ones. To distill the spatial effect out of the resource and economic factors on China's energy consumption, this study recast the traditional econometric model in a spatial context. Several analytic steps were taken to reveal different aspects of the issue. Per capita energy consumption (AVEC) at the provincial level was first mapped to reveal spatial clusters of high energy consumption being located in either well developed or energy resourceful regions. This visual spatial autocorrelation pattern of AVEC was quantitatively tested to confirm its existence among Chinese provinces. A Moran scatterplot was employed to further display a relatively centralized trend occurring in those provinces that had parallel AVEC, revealing a spatial structure with attraction among high-high or low-low regions and repellency among high-low or low-high regions. By a comparison between the ordinary least square (OLS) model and its spatial econometric counterparts, a spatial error model (SEM) was selected to analyze the impact of major economic determinants on AVEC. While the analytic results revealed a significant positive correlation between AVEC and economic development, other determinants showed some intricate influential patterns. The provinces endowed with rich energy reserves were inclined to consume much more energy than those otherwise, whereas changing the economic structure by increasing the proportion of secondary and tertiary industries also tended to consume more energy. Both situations seem to underpin the fact that these provinces were largely trapped in the economies that were supported by technologies of low energy efficiency during the period, while other parts of the country were rapidly modernized by adopting advanced

  1. Something old, something new, something borrowed, something blue: a framework for the marriage of health econometrics and cost-effectiveness analysis.

    PubMed

    Hoch, Jeffrey S; Briggs, Andrew H; Willan, Andrew R

    2002-07-01

    Economic evaluation is often seen as a branch of health economics divorced from mainstream econometric techniques. Instead, it is perceived as relying on statistical methods for clinical trials. Furthermore, the statistic of interest in cost-effectiveness analysis, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio is not amenable to regression-based methods, hence the traditional reliance on comparing aggregate measures across the arms of a clinical trial. In this paper, we explore the potential for health economists undertaking cost-effectiveness analysis to exploit the plethora of established econometric techniques through the use of the net-benefit framework - a recently suggested reformulation of the cost-effectiveness problem that avoids the reliance on cost-effectiveness ratios and their associated statistical problems. This allows the formulation of the cost-effectiveness problem within a standard regression type framework. We provide an example with empirical data to illustrate how a regression type framework can enhance the net-benefit method. We go on to suggest that practical advantages of the net-benefit regression approach include being able to use established econometric techniques, adjust for imperfect randomisation, and identify important subgroups in order to estimate the marginal cost-effectiveness of an intervention.

  2. An Econometric Analysis of the Elasticity of Vehicle Travel with Respect to Fuel Cost per Mile Using RTEC Survey Data

    SciTech Connect

    Greene, D.L.; Kahn, J.; Gibson, R.

    1999-03-01

    This paper presents the results of econometric estimation of the ''rebound effect'' for household vehicle travel in the United States based on a comprehensive analysis of survey data collected by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) at approximately three-year intervals over a 15-year period. The rebound effect is defined as the percent change in vehicle travel for a percent change in fuel economy. It summarizes the tendency to ''take back'' potential energy savings due to fuel economy improvements in the form of increased vehicle travel. Separate vehicles use models were estimated for one-, two-, three-, four-, and five-vehicle households. The results are consistent with the consensus of recently published estimates based on national or state-level data, which show a long-run rebound effect of about +0.2 (a ten percent increase in fuel economy, all else equal, would produce roughly a two percent increase in vehicle travel and an eight percent reduction in fuel use). The hypothesis that vehicle travel responds equally to changes in fuel cost-per-mile whether caused by changes in fuel economy or fuel price per gallon could not be rejected. Recognizing the interdependency in survey data among miles of travel, fuel economy and price paid for fuel for a particular vehicle turns out to be crucial to obtaining meaningful results.

  3. Effects of the R and D tax credit on energy R and D expenditures: an econometric analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Moe, R.J.; Kee, J.R.; Lackey, K.C.; Cronin, F.J.

    1985-02-01

    Objective of the study was to estimate the effects on industrial energy research and development (R and D) expenditures of the R and D Tax Credit component of the Economic Recovery Tax Act of 1981. Two tasks were performed. The first task was to collect data on industrial R and D expenditures, sales, oil prices, and price deflators. The R and D expenditure data were obtained from the National Science Foundation; other data were collected from Commerce Department and Department of Energy publications. The second task was to perform an econometric analysis of the effects of the tax credit on industrial R and D expenditures. Equations relating: (1) total; and (2) energy-related R and D expenditures to sales, oil prices, and a variable representing the availability of the tax credit were estimated, using data for each of seven manufacturing industries and eleven years. The analysis showed that the tax credit caused real total industrial R and D expenditures to be 9.1% greater than they would have been without the credit, but caused real energy industrial R and D expenditures to be 13.8% less than they would have been without the tax credit.

  4. Econometric analysis of the changing effects in wind strength and significant wave height on the probability of casualty in shipping.

    PubMed

    Knapp, Sabine; Kumar, Shashi; Sakurada, Yuri; Shen, Jiajun

    2011-05-01

    This study uses econometric models to measure the effect of significant wave height and wind strength on the probability of casualty and tests whether these effects changed. While both effects are in particular relevant for stability and strength calculations of vessels, it is also helpful for the development of ship construction standards in general to counteract increased risk resulting from changing oceanographic conditions. The authors analyzed a unique dataset of 3.2 million observations from 20,729 individual vessels in the North Atlantic and Arctic regions gathered during the period 1979-2007. The results show that although there is a seasonal pattern in the probability of casualty especially during the winter months, the effect of wind strength and significant wave height do not follow the same seasonal pattern. Additionally, over time, significant wave height shows an increasing effect in January, March, May and October while wind strength shows a decreasing effect, especially in January, March and May. The models can be used to simulate relationships and help understand the relationships. This is of particular interest to naval architects and ship designers as well as multilateral agencies such as the International Maritime Organization (IMO) that establish global standards in ship design and construction.

  5. The relationship of sugar to population-level diabetes prevalence: an econometric analysis of repeated cross-sectional data.

    PubMed

    Basu, Sanjay; Yoffe, Paula; Hills, Nancy; Lustig, Robert H

    2013-01-01

    While experimental and observational studies suggest that sugar intake is associated with the development of type 2 diabetes, independent of its role in obesity, it is unclear whether alterations in sugar intake can account for differences in diabetes prevalence among overall populations. Using econometric models of repeated cross-sectional data on diabetes and nutritional components of food from 175 countries, we found that every 150 kcal/person/day increase in sugar availability (about one can of soda/day) was associated with increased diabetes prevalence by 1.1% (p <0.001) after testing for potential selection biases and controlling for other food types (including fibers, meats, fruits, oils, cereals), total calories, overweight and obesity, period-effects, and several socioeconomic variables such as aging, urbanization and income. No other food types yielded significant individual associations with diabetes prevalence after controlling for obesity and other confounders. The impact of sugar on diabetes was independent of sedentary behavior and alcohol use, and the effect was modified but not confounded by obesity or overweight. Duration and degree of sugar exposure correlated significantly with diabetes prevalence in a dose-dependent manner, while declines in sugar exposure correlated with significant subsequent declines in diabetes rates independently of other socioeconomic, dietary and obesity prevalence changes. Differences in sugar availability statistically explain variations in diabetes prevalence rates at a population level that are not explained by physical activity, overweight or obesity.

  6. Antiretroviral Treatment Scale-Up and Tuberculosis Mortality in High TB/HIV Burden Countries: An Econometric Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Yan, Isabel; Bendavid, Eran; Korenromp, Eline L.

    2016-01-01

    Introduction Antiretroviral therapy (ART) reduces mortality in patients with active tuberculosis (TB), but the population-level relationship between ART coverage and TB mortality is untested. We estimated the reduction in population-level TB mortality that can be attributed to increasing ART coverage across 41 high HIV-TB burden countries. Methods We compiled TB mortality trends between 1996 and 2011 from two sources: (1) national program-reported TB death notifications, adjusted for annual TB case detection rates, and (2) WHO TB mortality estimates. National coverage with ART, as proportion of HIV-infected people in need, was obtained from UNAIDS. We applied panel linear regressions controlling for HIV prevalence (5-year lagged), coverage of TB interventions (estimated by WHO and UNAIDS), gross domestic product per capita, health spending from domestic sources, urbanization, and country fixed effects. Results Models suggest that that increasing ART coverage was followed by reduced TB mortality, across multiple specifications. For death notifications at 2 to 5 years following a given ART scale-up, a 1% increase in ART coverage predicted 0.95% faster mortality rate decline (p = 0.002); resulting in 27% fewer TB deaths in 2011 alone than would have occurred without ART. Based on WHO death estimates, a 1% increase in ART predicted a 1.0% reduced TB death rate (p<0.001), and 31% fewer deaths in 2011. TB mortality was higher at higher HIV prevalence (p<0.001), but not related to coverage of isoniazid preventive therapy, cotrimoxazole preventive therapy, or other covariates. Conclusion This econometric analysis supports a substantial impact of ART on population-level TB mortality realized already within the first decade of ART scale-up, that is apparent despite variable-quality mortality data. PMID:27536864

  7. Application of modern tests for stationarity to single-trial MEG data: transferring powerful statistical tools from econometrics to neuroscience.

    PubMed

    Kipiński, Lech; König, Reinhard; Sielużycki, Cezary; Kordecki, Wojciech

    2011-10-01

    Stationarity is a crucial yet rarely questioned assumption in the analysis of time series of magneto- (MEG) or electroencephalography (EEG). One key drawback of the commonly used tests for stationarity of encephalographic time series is the fact that conclusions on stationarity are only indirectly inferred either from the Gaussianity (e.g. the Shapiro-Wilk test or Kolmogorov-Smirnov test) or the randomness of the time series and the absence of trend using very simple time-series models (e.g. the sign and trend tests by Bendat and Piersol). We present a novel approach to the analysis of the stationarity of MEG and EEG time series by applying modern statistical methods which were specifically developed in econometrics to verify the hypothesis that a time series is stationary. We report our findings of the application of three different tests of stationarity--the Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Schin (KPSS) test for trend or mean stationarity, the Phillips-Perron (PP) test for the presence of a unit root and the White test for homoscedasticity--on an illustrative set of MEG data. For five stimulation sessions, we found already for short epochs of duration of 250 and 500 ms that, although the majority of the studied epochs of single MEG trials were usually mean-stationary (KPSS test and PP test), they were classified as nonstationary due to their heteroscedasticity (White test). We also observed that the presence of external auditory stimulation did not significantly affect the findings regarding the stationarity of the data. We conclude that the combination of these tests allows a refined analysis of the stationarity of MEG and EEG time series.

  8. A Systematic Comprehensive Computational Model for Stake Estimation in Mission Assurance: Applying Cyber Security Econometrics System (CSES) to Mission Assurance Analysis Protocol (MAAP)

    SciTech Connect

    Abercrombie, Robert K; Sheldon, Frederick T; Grimaila, Michael R

    2010-01-01

    In earlier works, we presented a computational infrastructure that allows an analyst to estimate the security of a system in terms of the loss that each stakeholder stands to sustain as a result of security breakdowns. In this paper, we discuss how this infrastructure can be used in the subject domain of mission assurance as defined as the full life-cycle engineering process to identify and mitigate design, production, test, and field support deficiencies of mission success. We address the opportunity to apply the Cyberspace Security Econometrics System (CSES) to Carnegie Mellon University and Software Engineering Institute s Mission Assurance Analysis Protocol (MAAP) in this context.

  9. Day of the week effect in paper submission/acceptance/rejection to/in/by peer review journals. II. An ARCH econometric-like modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ausloos, Marcel; Nedic, Olgica; Dekanski, Aleksandar; Mrowinski, Maciej J.; Fronczak, Piotr; Fronczak, Agata

    2017-02-01

    This paper aims at providing a statistical model for the preferred behavior of authors submitting a paper to a scientific journal. The electronic submission of (about 600) papers to the Journal of the Serbian Chemical Society has been recorded for every day from Jan. 01, 2013 till Dec. 31, 2014, together with the acceptance or rejection paper fate. Seasonal effects and editor roles (through desk rejection and subfield editors) are examined. An ARCH-like econometric model is derived stressing the main determinants of the favorite day-of-week process.

  10. Comment on "Polynomial cointegration tests of anthropogenic impact on global warming" by Beenstock et al. (2012) - some hazards in econometric modelling of climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pretis, F.; Hendry, D. F.

    2013-10-01

    We outline six important hazards that can be encountered in econometric modelling of time-series data, and apply that analysis to demonstrate errors in the empirical modelling of climate data in Beenstock et al. (2012). We show that the claim made in Beenstock et al. (2012) as to the different degrees of integrability of CO2 and temperature is incorrect. In particular, the level of integration is not constant and not intrinsic to the process. Further, we illustrate that the measure of anthropogenic forcing in Beenstock et al. (2012), a constructed "anthropogenic anomaly", is not appropriate regardless of the time-series properties of the data.

  11. Accounting for selection bias in species distribution models: An econometric approach on forested trees based on structural modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ay, Jean-Sauveur; Guillemot, Joannès; Martin-StPaul, Nicolas K.; Doyen, Luc; Leadley, Paul

    2015-04-01

    Species distribution models (SDMs) are widely used to study and predict the outcome of global change on species. In human dominated ecosystems the presence of a given species is the result of both its ecological suitability and human footprint on nature such as land use choices. Land use choices may thus be responsible for a selection bias in the presence/absence data used in SDM calibration. We present a structural modelling approach (i.e. based on structural equation modelling) that accounts for this selection bias. The new structural species distribution model (SSDM) estimates simultaneously land use choices and species responses to bioclimatic variables. A land use equation based on an econometric model of landowner choices was joined to an equation of species response to bioclimatic variables. SSDM allows the residuals of both equations to be dependent, taking into account the possibility of shared omitted variables and measurement errors. We provide a general description of the statistical theory and a set of application on forested trees over France using databases of climate and forest inventory at different spatial resolution (from 2km to 8 km). We also compared the output of the SSDM with outputs of a classical SDM in term of bioclimatic response curves and potential distribution under current climate. According to the species and the spatial resolution of the calibration dataset, shapes of bioclimatic response curves the modelled species distribution maps differed markedly between the SSDM and classical SDMs. The magnitude and directions of these differences were dependent on the correlations between the errors from both equations and were highest for higher spatial resolutions. A first conclusion is that the use of classical SDMs can potentially lead to strong miss-estimation of the actual and future probability of presence modelled. Beyond this selection bias, the SSDM we propose represents a crucial step to account for economic constraints on tree

  12. Applying econometric techniques to hydrological problems in a large basin: Quantifying the rainfall-discharge relationship in the Burdekin, Queensland, Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jarvis, Diane; Stoeckl, Natalie; Chaiechi, Taha

    2013-07-01

    This study seeks to explore the relationship between rainfall and river discharge within a large river basin flowing into the waters surrounding the Great Barrier Reef (GBR), and to investigate the best method of measuring the relationship. This aim is addressed by focusing on three specific research questions: (A) Has there been any evidence that global climate change has impacted on either rainfall or river discharge resulting in any change to the relationship between these variables over time? (B) What is the best measure of rainfall to be used to quantify the rainfall-discharge relationship, including the optimal number of rain stations to be included in the sample? (C) What is the optimal temporal scale for measuring the relationship (ranging from fine scale monthly data, medium scale quarterly data, and coarse scale annual data)? Modern econometric time series techniques are utilised, and compared with results using an alternate technique developed by researchers from the bio-physical sciences; the widely used Thiessen Polygon method. Firstly, stationarity testing, using econometric unit root tests, did not find evidence to suggest that the data are non-stationary. Evidently, climate change has not had a measurable impact on rainfall or river discharge in the region during the period covered by this study. Secondly, the analysis shows that the when dealing with fairly simple models with a fairly small number of explanatory variables, those which best represent the river-discharge relationship are those using the coarser scales (both geographic and temporal). In other words, stronger and more robust results are derived from models using fewer rain stations, and annual data (rather than quarterly or monthly data). This approach provides a viable alternative that may be very useful in data-poor environments when it is not possible to use other more data-hungry modelling approaches. The econometric models provided a better explanation of the relationship than the

  13. Is the way young people drive a reflection of the way their parents drive? An econometric study of the relation between parental risk and their children's risk.

    PubMed

    Lahatte, Agénor; Le Pape, Marie-Clémence

    2008-06-01

    This article aims to investigate parental influence on high-risk behavior by young people. Although research on the topic of perception of risk demonstrates that it is socially constructed, the role of the family in this construction has rarely been studied. Using a French national survey of more than 1,200 young drivers between the ages of 18 and 25, and their parents, we attempt to understand the transmission of risk within families. Our econometric study shows that parents influence both the practices and representations of their children. When parental norms and values are transmitted, they are by no means accepted in a wholly passive way. Indeed, the parental model is in competition with other models that originate from both inside the family (brothers and sisters) and outside it (instructors). Furthermore, parental influence decreases over time as young people become more experienced drivers and construct their own identity with regard to risk.

  14. [Are there irrationalities in the consumption of anti-obesity drugs in Brazil? A pharmaco-econometric analysis of panel datasets].

    PubMed

    Mota, Daniel Marques; de Oliveira, Márcia Gonçalves; Bovi, Rafael Filiacci; Silva, Sidarta Figueredo; Cunha, Jeane Araújo Fernandes; Divino, José Angelo

    2014-05-01

    The scope of this study is to analyze the determinants of the use of appetite suppressants (amfepramone, femproporex, mazindol and sibutramine) through the estimation of a dynamic panel dataset model for the Brazilian state capitals and the Federal District (DF) in the period from 2009 to 2011. The results show that consumption of appetite suppressants did not follow the geographic distribution of overweight and obese individuals across the capitals and DF. There is a recurrent consumption of appetite inhibitors, in which 79% of the current consumption of these drugs is explained by past consumption. Among the variables that explain the use of inhibitors, the percentage of obese adults, the percentage of adults who habitually consume fruit and vegetables, and the coverage rate of health plans stand out. The pharmaco-econometric analysis suggests that there are problems in the rational use of appetite suppressants in the Brazilian state capitals and the Federal District with respect to both the combined consumption of these drugs with other medicines - deemed illegal by the Federal Council of Medicine and ANVISA - and in the therapeutic prescription of these products.

  15. Assessing the impact on chronic disease of incorporating the societal cost of greenhouse gases into the price of food: an econometric and comparative risk assessment modelling study

    PubMed Central

    Briggs, Adam D M; Kehlbacher, Ariane; Tiffin, Richard; Garnett, Tara; Rayner, Mike; Scarborough, Peter

    2013-01-01

    Objectives To model the impact on chronic disease of a tax on UK food and drink that internalises the wider costs to society of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and to estimate the potential revenue. Design An econometric and comparative risk assessment modelling study. Setting The UK. Participants The UK adult population. Interventions Two tax scenarios are modelled: (A) a tax of £2.72/tonne carbon dioxide equivalents (tCO2e)/100 g product applied to all food and drink groups with above average GHG emissions. (B) As with scenario (A) but food groups with emissions below average are subsidised to create a tax neutral scenario. Outcome measures Primary outcomes are change in UK population mortality from chronic diseases following the implementation of each taxation strategy, the change in the UK GHG emissions and the predicted revenue. Secondary outcomes are the changes to the micronutrient composition of the UK diet. Results Scenario (A) results in 7770 (95% credible intervals 7150 to 8390) deaths averted and a reduction in GHG emissions of 18 683 (14 665to 22 889) ktCO2e/year. Estimated annual revenue is £2.02 (£1.98 to £2.06) billion. Scenario (B) results in 2685 (1966 to 3402) extra deaths and a reduction in GHG emissions of 15 228 (11 245to 19 492) ktCO2e/year. Conclusions Incorporating the societal cost of GHG into the price of foods could save 7770 lives in the UK each year, reduce food-related GHG emissions and generate substantial tax revenue. The revenue neutral scenario (B) demonstrates that sustainability and health goals are not always aligned. Future work should focus on investigating the health impact by population subgroup and on designing fiscal strategies to promote both sustainable and healthy diets. PMID:24154517

  16. Long-run relative importance of temperature as the main driver to malaria transmission in Limpopo Province, South Africa: a simple econometric approach.

    PubMed

    Komen, Kibii; Olwoch, Jane; Rautenbach, Hannes; Botai, Joel; Adebayo, Adetunji

    2015-03-01

    Malaria in Limpopo Province of South Africa is shifting and now observed in originally non-malaria districts, and it is unclear whether climate change drives this shift. This study examines the distribution of malaria at district level in the province, determines direction and strength of the linear relationship and causality between malaria with the meteorological variables (rainfall and temperature) and ascertains their short- and long-run variations. Spatio-temporal method, Correlation analysis and econometric methods are applied. Time series monthly meteorological data (1998-2007) were obtained from South Africa Weather Services, while clinical malaria data came from Malaria Control Centre in Tzaneen (Limpopo Province) and South African Department of Health. We find that malaria changes and pressures vary in different districts with a strong positive correlation between temperature with malaria, r = 0.5212, and a weak positive relationship for rainfall, r = 0.2810. Strong unidirectional causality runs from rainfall and temperature to malaria cases (and not vice versa): F (1, 117) = 3.89, ρ = 0.0232 and F (1, 117) = 20.08, P < 0.001 and between rainfall and temperature, a bi-directional causality exists: F (1, 117) = 19.80; F (1,117) = 17.14, P < 0.001, respectively, meaning that rainfall affects temperature and vice versa. Results show evidence of strong existence of a long-run relationship between climate variables and malaria, with temperature maintaining very high level of significance than rainfall. Temperature, therefore, is more important in influencing malaria transmission in Limpopo Province.

  17. Cyberspace Security Econometrics System (CSES)

    SciTech Connect

    2012-07-27

    Information security continues to evolve in response to disruptive changes with a persistent focus on information-centric controls and a healthy debate about balancing endpoint and network protection, with a goal of improved enterprise/business risk management. Economic uncertainty, intensively collaborative styles of work, virtualization, increased outsourcing and ongoing complance pressures require careful consideration and adaption. The CSES provides a measure (i.e. a quantitative indication) of reliability, performance, and/or safety of a system that accounts for the criticality of each requirement as a function of one or more stakeholders' interests in that requirement. For a given stakeholder, CSES accounts for the variance that may exist among the stakes one attaches to meeting each requirement.

  18. What econometrics cannot teach quantum mechanics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Berkovitz, Joseph

    Cartwright (1989) and Humphreys (1989) have suggested theories of probabilistic causation for singular events, which are based on modifications of traditional causal linear modelling. On the basis of her theory, Cartwright offered an allegedly local, and non-factorizable, common-cause model for the EPR experiment. In this paper I consider Cartwright's and Humphreys' theories. I argue that, provided plausible assumptions obtain, local models for EPR in the framework of these theories are committed to Bell inequalities, which are violated by experiment.

  19. Econometric Models of Armed Forces Enlistment Levels

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1976-10-01

    PROJECT. TASK AREA A «ORK UNIT NUMBERS IJ. REPORT DATE October 1976 II. NUMBER OF PASES is. SECURITY CLASS, (OI m-» «ponj Uncl. ISa...34The Cost of the Draft...," loc. cit., csp. pp. 240-246. 33 5. Ibid.. p. 241. 6. Ibid. 7. The lognonr.al distribucion also allows him Co define W as...resources spent by the services in each of these areas . However, offsetting their strength in the superior enlistment data they use, they are weak in

  20. Wheat yield dynamics: a structural econometric analysis.

    PubMed

    Sahin, Afsin; Akdi, Yilmaz; Arslan, Fahrettin

    2007-10-15

    In this study we initially have tried to explore the wheat situation in Turkey, which has a small-open economy and in the member countries of European Union (EU). We have observed that increasing the wheat yield is fundamental to obtain comparative advantage among countries by depressing domestic prices. Also the changing structure of supporting schemes in Turkey makes it necessary to increase its wheat yield level. For this purpose, we have used available data to determine the dynamics of wheat yield by Ordinary Least Square Regression methods. In order to find out whether there is a linear relationship among these series we have checked each series whether they are integrated at the same order or not. Consequently, we have pointed out that fertilizer usage and precipitation level are substantial inputs for producing high wheat yield. Furthermore, in respect for our model, fertilizer usage affects wheat yield more than precipitation level.

  1. Hydrogen production econometric studies. [hydrogen and fossil fuels

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Howell, J. R.; Bannerot, R. B.

    1975-01-01

    The current assessments of fossil fuel resources in the United States were examined, and predictions of the maximum and minimum lifetimes of recoverable resources according to these assessments are presented. In addition, current rates of production in quads/year for the fossil fuels were determined from the literature. Where possible, costs of energy, location of reserves, and remaining time before these reserves are exhausted are given. Limitations that appear to hinder complete development of each energy source are outlined.

  2. An econometric analysis of the market for natural gas futures

    SciTech Connect

    Walls, W.D.

    1995-12-31

    This research tests a form of the efficient markets hypothesis in the market for natural gas futures. Unlike other studies of future markets, the test for market efficiency is conducted at numerous locations which comprise the natural gas spot market in addition to the delivery location specified in the futures contract. Natural gas spot and futures prices are found to be nonstationary and accordingly are modeled using recently developed maximum likelihood cointegrated with nearly all of the spot market prices across the national network of gas pipelines. The hypothesis of market efficiency can be rejected in 3 of the 13 spot markets. 29 refs., 1 fig., 2 tabs.

  3. Compensation and Promotion Models: A New Econometrics Approach

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2010-01-29

    m itjmw 1 M itj itjm m m w v    1,1itj    1,1mv The Information Theoretic, General Maximum Entropy (IT-GME) Model: (Maximizing the joint...that may contradict economic intuition/theory. • From a practical point of view, a number of researchers show that the multivariate (or bivariate ... entropies of the signal and noise subject to the linear cross moments, First Order Markov conditions, and the requirements that w are proper

  4. An econometric model of the world copper industry

    SciTech Connect

    Lewanika, M.W.

    1989-01-01

    This model of the world copper economy is fitted to 1960-1984 annual data. Here, unlike in previous models, an attempt is made to depart from the tendency to force the same functional form to represent individual country supply curves. The methodology utilized in constructing this model allows for individual countries to have supply curves that differ in functional form. The model consists of five categories - Western world consumption, Western world primary supply, Western world secondary supply, change in inventory, and net exports to the Centrally Planned Economies. Consumption, secondary supply, and change in inventory are each estimated by one equation aggregating the Western world. Primary supply is the sum of the supply equations for primary copper estimated for seven major producing countries and the Rest of the world. The seven countries are Chile, the United States, Canada, Zambia, Zaire, Peru, and Australia. The model is used to examine the copper industry in the coming decade under various scenarios. The copper market is found to be characterized by low short-run and slightly higher long-run price elasticities except in the case of the Rest of the World whose short-run elasticity is 1.52.

  5. Energy productivity in the industrial sector: an econometric analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Roop, J.M.

    1983-01-01

    Energy productivity and energy intensity within the industrial sector of the economy are examined. Results suggest that relative prices and other economic factors can explain much of the variation in both energy productivity and energy intensity for manufacturing and mining and for the industrial sector as a whole. Cyclical factors, seasonal factors and trend variables are also useful in explaining variation in these data, both for annual and monthly time series. Of the variables examined, it appears that the relative price of energy is a highly significant factor in accounting for the difference between actual industrial energy intensity and that which might have been expected had pre-1973 trends continued.

  6. Applying econometrics to the carbon dioxide "control knob".

    PubMed

    Curtin, Timothy

    2012-01-01

    This paper tests various propositions underlying claims that observed global temperature change is mostly attributable to anthropogenic noncondensing greenhouse gases, and that although water vapour is recognized to be a dominant contributor to the overall greenhouse gas (GHG) effect, that effect is merely a "feedback" from rising temperatures initially resulting only from "non-condensing" GHGs and not at all from variations in preexisting naturally caused atmospheric water vapour (i.e., [H(2)O]). However, this paper shows that "initial radiative forcing" is not exclusively attributable to forcings from noncondensing GHG, both because atmospheric water vapour existed before there were any significant increases in GHG concentrations or temperatures and also because there is no evidence that such increases have produced measurably higher [H(2)O]. The paper distinguishes between forcing and feedback impacts of water vapour and contends that it is the primary forcing agent, at much more than 50% of the total GHG gas effect. That means that controlling atmospheric carbon dioxide is unlikely to be an effective "control knob" as claimed by Lacis et al. (2010).

  7. Essays on the economics and econometrics of human capital

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mosso, Stefano

    This thesis is composed by three distinct chapters. They are related by their common theme: the economic analysis of the process of human capital formation. The first chapter distills and extends the recent research on the economics of human development and social mobility. It critically analyzes the literature on the role of early life conditions in shaping multiple life skills with emphasis on the importance of critical and sensitive investments periods in influencing skill development. It develops economic models that rationalize the empirical evidence on treatment effects of social programs and on family influence. It investigates the empirical support of recent claims, made by part of the literature, on the relevance of credit constraints in limiting skill development. It shows how credit constraints are not a major force explaining differences in the amount of parental and self-investments in skills and how untargeted income transfer policies to poor families do not significantly boost child outcomes. The second chapter compares the performance of maximum likelihood and simulated methods of moments in estimating dynamic discrete choice models. It presents a structural model of education and shows how it can be used to estimate heterogeneous returns from schooling choices which account for their continuation values. Continuation values have a large impact on returns, but are ignored in the measures commonly used to assess the value of schooling choices. The estimates from the model are used to compute a synthetic dataset. This is used to assess the ability of maximum likelihood and simulated methods of moments to recover the model parameters. It finally proposes a Monte Carlo exercise to gain confidence on the performance of a simulated method of moments algorithm. The last chapter proposes a method to assess long run impacts on earnings of early interventions even in absence of long-term data collection on earnings histories for program participants. It combines the methodological approaches of the literature on program evaluation, data combination and forecasting to develop estimators of the average treatment effects. This exercise allows a more complete cost-benefit evaluation of social programs accounting for benefits over the whole life cycle.

  8. Hierarchical Architectural Considerations in Econometric Modeling of Manufacturing Systems

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1981-06-01

    the model (e.g. center level as a function of cell level, etc.). Although the current effort was to develop an IDEF o activ- ity model, the...concepts and thoughts on synthesizing existing knowledge toward the objective of developing a hierarchical IDEF o econo- metric model for a large scale...review of the termin- ology and structure of IDEF o (ICAM definition method-version 0) is given in the subsequent paragraphs. Structured analysis

  9. The SRI-WEFA Soviet Econometric Model: Phase One Documentation

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1975-03-01

    on the particulars of those individual sectors with the model handling the eval- uation of Interaction and full-system effects . Not only does the...arises from the current harvest. The current harvest has a direct effect on agricultural investment and an indirect impact upon current industrial...the often- discussed Impact of savings account accumulation upon purchases of duracle goods; his effect may still be valid at the micro level for

  10. Defense Spending and the Economy - An Econometric View

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1994-01-01

    defense expenditure . Nonetheless, defense spending has been reduced over the past several years and is likely to continue to be reduced in the near... defense spending and GNP, it disproved the Marxist assertion that not enough private outlets existed for investment. Thus, defense expenditure was not...of defense spending . 2 ’ With respect to defense expenditure and economic growth and productivity, the authors contend that the results of

  11. An econometric analysis of smoking prevalence among lone mothers.

    PubMed

    Dorsett, R

    1999-08-01

    This paper uses panel data to examine the determinants of smoking among lone mothers over the period 1991-1996. Consideration is given to the initial conditions problem encountered when modelling dynamic panel probit models, and a recently suggested approach is applied to address this problem.

  12. Econometric estimation of country-specific hospital costs.

    PubMed

    Adam, Taghreed; Evans, David B; Murray, Christopher JL

    2003-02-26

    Information on the unit cost of inpatient and outpatient care is an essential element for costing, budgeting and economic-evaluation exercises. Many countries lack reliable estimates, however. WHO has recently undertaken an extensive effort to collect and collate data on the unit cost of hospitals and health centres from as many countries as possible; so far, data have been assembled from 49 countries, for various years during the period 1973-2000. The database covers a total of 2173 country-years of observations. Large gaps remain, however, particularly for developing countries. Although the long-term solution is that all countries perform their own costing studies, the question arises whether it is possible to predict unit costs for different countries in a standardized way for short-term use. The purpose of the work described in this paper, a modelling exercise, was to use the data collected across countries to predict unit costs in countries for which data are not yet available, with the appropriate uncertainty intervals.The model presented here forms part of a series of models used to estimate unit costs for the WHO-CHOICE project. The methods and the results of the model, however, may be used to predict a number of different types of country-specific unit costs, depending on the purpose of the exercise. They may be used, for instance, to estimate the costs per bed-day at different capacity levels; the "hotel" component of cost per bed-day; or unit costs net of particular components such as drugs.In addition to reporting estimates for selected countries, the paper shows that unit costs of hospitals vary within countries, sometimes by an order of magnitude. Basing cost-effectiveness studies or budgeting exercises on the results of a study of a single facility, or even a small group of facilities, is likely to be misleading.

  13. Occupational gender segregation: index measurement and econometric modeling.

    PubMed

    Watts, M

    1998-11-01

    Empirical studies of gender segregation by occupation must be founded on rigorous measurement procedures. There appears to be a consensus that any index used in the analysis of time-series or international cross-section employment data must be either margin-free or decomposable to yield a margin-free component. On the other hand, Charles and Grusky (1995) advocate the use of multiplicative log models from which a margin-free odds ratio can be derived. In this paper, I contrast the construction and interpretation of the index of dissimilarity and the Karmel-MacLachlan index with the multiplicative modeling of gender segregation and the associated log index.

  14. An Econometric Model of Healthcare Demand With Nonlinear Pricing.

    PubMed

    Kunz, Johannes S; Winkelmann, Rainer

    2016-04-04

    From 2004 to 2012, the German social health insurance levied a co-payment for the first doctor visit in a calendar quarter. We develop a new model for estimating the effect of such a co-payment on the individual number of visits per quarter. The model combines a one-time increase in the otherwise constant hazard rate determining the timing of doctor visits with a difference-in-differences strategy to identify the reform effect. An extended version of the model accounts for a mismatch between reporting period and calendar quarter. Using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel, we do not find an effect of the co-payment on demand for doctor visits. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  15. An Econometric Analysis of the Effectiveness of Compensation to Retention

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2009-03-01

    pilots, fighter pilots, clinical nurses , air battle managers, development engineers, students, or employed in communications and information, space and...uniformed personnel and their dependents free of charge through military treatment facilities. When care at military treatment facilities is not...possible, either in general or for the particular type of care needed, a network of healthcare providers is available for those patients. Another

  16. An Econometric Examination of the Behavioral Perspective Model in the Context of Norwegian Retailing

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sigurdsson, Valdimar; Kahamseh, Saeed; Gunnarsson, Didrik; Larsen, Nils Magne; Foxall, Gordon R.

    2013-01-01

    The behavioral perspective model's (BPM; Foxall, 1990) retailing literature is built on extensive empirical research and techniques that were originally refined in choice experiments in behavioral economics and behavior analysis, and then tested mostly on British consumer panel data. We test the BPM in the context of Norwegian retailing. This…

  17. Power law distribution in high frequency financial data? An econometric analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Todorova, Lora; Vogt, Bodo

    2011-11-01

    Power law distributions are very common in natural sciences. We analyze high frequency financial data from XETRA and the NYSE using maximum likelihood estimation and the Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic to test whether the power law hypothesis holds also for these data. We find that the universality and scale invariance properties of the power law are violated. Furthermore, the returns of Daimler Chrysler and SAP traded simultaneously on both exchanges follow a power law at one exchange, but not at the other. These results raise some questions about the no-arbitrage condition. Finally, we find that an exponential function provides a better fit for the tails of the sample distributions than a power law function.

  18. An Econometric Model of the Scholastic Aptitude Test Performance of State Educational Systems.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hashway, Robert M.; And Others

    1991-01-01

    Nationwide data were partitioned into wealth, fiscal policy, fiscal orientation, and Scholastic Aptitude Test (SAT) performance and participation. Largest between-group differences show that low SAT achieving states have a larger percentage of seniors taking the SAT, along with higher per capita income, per pupil expenditures, and teacher…

  19. SPATIAL STATISTICS AND ECONOMETRICS FOR MODELS IN FISHERIES ECONOMICS. (R828012)

    EPA Science Inventory

    The perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Concl...

  20. Nonparametric model validations for hidden Markov models with applications in financial econometrics.

    PubMed

    Zhao, Zhibiao

    2011-06-01

    We address the nonparametric model validation problem for hidden Markov models with partially observable variables and hidden states. We achieve this goal by constructing a nonparametric simultaneous confidence envelope for transition density function of the observable variables and checking whether the parametric density estimate is contained within such an envelope. Our specification test procedure is motivated by a functional connection between the transition density of the observable variables and the Markov transition kernel of the hidden states. Our approach is applicable for continuous time diffusion models, stochastic volatility models, nonlinear time series models, and models with market microstructure noise.

  1. An econometric model of the U.S. secondary copper industry: Recycling versus disposal

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Slade, M.E.

    1980-01-01

    In this paper, a theoretical model of secondary recovery is developed that integrates microeconomic theories of production and cost with a dynamic model of scrap generation and accumulation. The model equations are estimated for the U.S. secondary copper industry and used to assess the impacts that various policies and future events have on copper recycling rates. The alternatives considered are: subsidies for secondary production, differing energy costs, and varying ore quality in primary production. ?? 1990.

  2. Computational models of consumer confidence from large-scale online attention data: crowd-sourcing econometrics.

    PubMed

    Dong, Xianlei; Bollen, Johan

    2015-01-01

    Economies are instances of complex socio-technical systems that are shaped by the interactions of large numbers of individuals. The individual behavior and decision-making of consumer agents is determined by complex psychological dynamics that include their own assessment of present and future economic conditions as well as those of others, potentially leading to feedback loops that affect the macroscopic state of the economic system. We propose that the large-scale interactions of a nation's citizens with its online resources can reveal the complex dynamics of their collective psychology, including their assessment of future system states. Here we introduce a behavioral index of Chinese Consumer Confidence (C3I) that computationally relates large-scale online search behavior recorded by Google Trends data to the macroscopic variable of consumer confidence. Our results indicate that such computational indices may reveal the components and complex dynamics of consumer psychology as a collective socio-economic phenomenon, potentially leading to improved and more refined economic forecasting.

  3. Computational Models of Consumer Confidence from Large-Scale Online Attention Data: Crowd-Sourcing Econometrics

    PubMed Central

    2015-01-01

    Economies are instances of complex socio-technical systems that are shaped by the interactions of large numbers of individuals. The individual behavior and decision-making of consumer agents is determined by complex psychological dynamics that include their own assessment of present and future economic conditions as well as those of others, potentially leading to feedback loops that affect the macroscopic state of the economic system. We propose that the large-scale interactions of a nation's citizens with its online resources can reveal the complex dynamics of their collective psychology, including their assessment of future system states. Here we introduce a behavioral index of Chinese Consumer Confidence (C3I) that computationally relates large-scale online search behavior recorded by Google Trends data to the macroscopic variable of consumer confidence. Our results indicate that such computational indices may reveal the components and complex dynamics of consumer psychology as a collective socio-economic phenomenon, potentially leading to improved and more refined economic forecasting. PMID:25826692

  4. An Econometric Model of Health Services Delivery: National Capital Area (NCA)

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2011-01-01

    Disorders $3,210,814 9.3% Diseases and Disorders of the Nervous  System $2,708,940 7.8% Diseases and Disorders of the  Digestive   System $2,022,856 5.8...Nervous  System $6,429,140 6.7% Mental Diseases and Disorders $5,224,147 5.4% Diseases and Disorders of the  Digestive   System $5,177,988 5.4% Diseases and...The Quadruple Aim: Working Together, Achieving Success TRICARE Regional Office - North 2011 Military Health System Conference CAPT Steven Keener Mr

  5. The causal nexus between carbon dioxide emissions and agricultural ecosystem-an econometric approach.

    PubMed

    Asumadu-Sarkodie, Samuel; Owusu, Phebe Asantewaa

    2017-01-01

    Achieving a long-term food security and preventing hunger include a better nutrition through sustainable systems of production, distribution, and consumption. Nonetheless, the quest for an alternative to increasing global food supply to meet the growing demand has led to the use of poor agricultural practices that promote climate change. Given the contribution of the agricultural ecosystem towards greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, this study investigated the causal nexus between carbon dioxide emissions and agricultural ecosystem by employing a data spanning from 1961 to 2012. Evidence from long-run elasticity shows that a 1 % increase in the area of rice paddy harvested will increase carbon dioxide emissions by 1.49 %, a 1 % increase in biomass-burned crop residues will increase carbon dioxide emissions by 1.00 %, a 1 % increase in cereal production will increase carbon dioxide emissions by 1.38 %, and a 1 % increase in agricultural machinery will decrease carbon dioxide emissions by 0.09 % in the long run. There was a bidirectional causality between carbon dioxide emissions, cereal production, and biomass-burned crop residues. The Granger causality shows that the agricultural ecosystem in Ghana is sensitive to climate change vulnerability.

  6. Disentangling the influence of cell phone usage in the dilemma zone: An econometric approach.

    PubMed

    Eluru, Naveen; Yasmin, Shamsunnahar

    2016-11-01

    This paper focuses on developing an analysis framework to study the impact of cell phone treatment (cell phone type and call status) on driver behavior in the presence of a dilemma zone. Specifically, we examine how the treatment influences the driver maneuver decision at the intersection (stop or cross) and the eventual success of the maneuver. For a stop maneuver, success is defined as stopping before the stop line. Similarly, for a cross maneuver, success is defined as clearing the intersection safely before the light turns red. The eventual success or failure of the driver's decision process is dependent on the factors that affected the maneuver decision. Hence it is important to recognize the interconnectedness of the stop or cross decision with its eventual success (or failure). Toward this end, we formulate and estimate a joint framework to analyze the stop/cross decision with its eventual success (or failure) simultaneously. The study is conducted based on driving simulator data provided online for the 2014 Transportation Research Board Data Contest at http://depts.washington.edu/hfsm/upload.php. The model is estimated to analyze drivers' behavior at the onset of yellow by employing exogenous variables from three broad categories: driver characteristics, cell phone attributes and driving attributes. We also generate probability surfaces to identify dilemma zone distribution associated with different cell phone treatment types. The plots clearly illustrate the impact of various cellphone treatments on driver dilemma zone behavior.

  7. Econometric analysis of the impact of the relationship of GDP and the pension capital

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nepp, A. N.; Amiryan, A. A.

    2016-12-01

    The article demonstrates the impact of institutional risks on indicators of compulsory pension insurance and describes the results of a comparative analysis of investment risks faced by the pension systems of the Russian Federation and OECD countries. Efficiency of private companies managing pension funds in Russia and OECD countries is compared and analyzed to show the necessity to liberalize requirements placed on investments of pension savings funds. On the basis of the available statistical data, the article puts forward and discusses the hypothesis that increasing of the basic indicators of the pension system is possible by reducing its institutional risks. It is concluded that if the institutional risks are reduced and the level of trust increases, there will be enhance growth in the pension system key indicators, such as pension payments and the replacement rate.

  8. Loglinear Models and Categorical Data Analysis with Psychometric and Econometric Applications. Revision.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1982-11-01

    34 • - • • • • • . . * * , , " . . " * e . " e . * ’ v "v . e * . 14 in pair in a u s of mwb ) The bad l-Terry model pmnahm pbalty of lj Al gPreferred t Toii Pr(T...ADDOM i2. REPORT GAVE Contracts Office November, 1982 Carnegie-Mellon University ,1 MUNDER Or PAGE Pittsburgh, PA 15213 - 32 I& MONITONING A6ENCY NMA0

  9. The impacts of surface ozone pollution on winter wheat productivity in China--An econometric approach.

    PubMed

    Yi, Fujin; Jiang, Fei; Zhong, Funing; Zhou, Xun; Ding, Aijun

    2016-01-01

    The impact of surface ozone pollution on winter wheat yield is empirically estimated by considering socio-economic and weather determinants. This research is the first to use an economic framework to estimate the ozone impact, and a unique county-level panel is employed to examine the impact of the increasing surface ozone concentration on the productivity of winter wheat in China. In general, the increment of surface ozone concentration during the ozone-sensitive period of winter wheat is determined to be harmful to its yield, and a conservative reduction of ozone pollution could significantly increase China's wheat supply.

  10. Housing land transaction data and structural econometric estimation of preference parameters for urban economic simulation models

    PubMed Central

    Caruso, Geoffrey; Cavailhès, Jean; Peeters, Dominique; Thomas, Isabelle; Frankhauser, Pierre; Vuidel, Gilles

    2015-01-01

    This paper describes a dataset of 6284 land transactions prices and plot surfaces in 3 medium-sized cities in France (Besançon, Dijon and Brest). The dataset includes road accessibility as obtained from a minimization algorithm, and the amount of green space available to households in the neighborhood of the transactions, as evaluated from a land cover dataset. Further to the data presentation, the paper describes how these variables can be used to estimate the non-observable parameters of a residential choice function explicitly derived from a microeconomic model. The estimates are used by Caruso et al. (2015) to run a calibrated microeconomic urban growth simulation model where households are assumed to trade-off accessibility and local green space amenities. PMID:26958606

  11. Solicitation and Donation: An Econometric Evaluation of Alumni Generosity in Higher Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gottfried, Michael A.; Johnson, Erica L.

    2006-01-01

    This paper evaluates the relationship between alumni solicitation and alumni donation within institutions of higher education. The issue of alumni giving is important for universities because the average cost of university tuition has increased dramatically over the past 20 years at an annual growth rate larger than the United States CPI (Harvard…

  12. The Changing Role of State Appropriations for Higher Education: An Econometric Analysis from 1985-2008

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mushrush, Christopher E.

    2013-01-01

    Traditionally, public funding of higher education has been viewed as cyclical, where support falls during times of economic downturn and then recovers as the economy improves. This view, however, is being challenged as budgetary shortfalls are becoming more common for states, even in times of economic growth, due to structural constraints. Using…

  13. Non-equilibrium thermodynamics theory of econometric source discovery for large data analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van Bergem, Rutger; Jenkins, Jeffrey; Benachenhou, Dalila; Szu, Harold

    2014-05-01

    Almost all consumer and firm transactions are achieved using computers and as a result gives rise to increasingly large amounts of data available for analysts. The gold standard in Economic data manipulation techniques matured during a period of limited data access, and the new Large Data Analysis (LDA) paradigm we all face may quickly obfuscate most tools used by Economists. When coupled with an increased availability of numerous unstructured, multi-modal data sets, the impending 'data tsunami' could have serious detrimental effects for Economic forecasting, analysis, and research in general. Given this reality we propose a decision-aid framework for Augmented-LDA (A-LDA) - a synergistic approach to LDA which combines traditional supervised, rule-based Machine Learning (ML) strategies to iteratively uncover hidden sources in large data, the artificial neural network (ANN) Unsupervised Learning (USL) at the minimum Helmholtz free energy for isothermal dynamic equilibrium strategies, and the Economic intuitions required to handle problems encountered when interpreting large amounts of Financial or Economic data. To make the ANN USL framework applicable to economics we define the temperature, entropy, and energy concepts in Economics from non-equilibrium molecular thermodynamics of Boltzmann viewpoint, as well as defining an information geometry, on which the ANN can operate using USL to reduce information saturation. An exemplar of such a system representation is given for firm industry equilibrium. We demonstrate the traditional ML methodology in the economics context and leverage firm financial data to explore a frontier concept known as behavioral heterogeneity. Behavioral heterogeneity on the firm level can be imagined as a firm's interactions with different types of Economic entities over time. These interactions could impose varying degrees of institutional constraints on a firm's business behavior. We specifically look at behavioral heterogeneity for firms that are operating with the label of `Going-Concern' and firms labeled according to institutional influence they may be experiencing, such as constraints on firm hiring/spending while in a Bankruptcy or a Merger procedure. Uncovering invariant features, or behavioral data metrics from observable firm data in an economy can greatly benefit the FED, World Bank, etc. We find that the ML/LDA communities can benefit from Economic intuitions just as much as Economists can benefit from generic data exploration tools. The future of successful Economic data understanding, modeling, simulation, and visualization can be amplified by new A-LDA models and approaches for new and analogous models of Economic system dynamics. The potential benefits of improved economic data analysis and real time decision aid tools are numerous for researchers, analysts, and federal agencies who all deal with increasingly large amounts of complex data to support their decision making.

  14. The effect of neighbourhood mortality shocks on fertility preferences: a spatial econometric approach.

    PubMed

    Owoo, Nkechi S; Agyei-Mensah, Samuel; Onuoha, Emily

    2015-07-01

    According to the demographic transition theory, fertility rates fall in response to declines in child mortality rates. Although national statistics indicate that child mortality rates have been declining over time, Ghana's fertility rates appear to have stalled. This paper hypothesises that women's fertility behaviours may be more responsive to child mortality experiences at more localised levels. Using all rounds of the Ghana Demographic and Health Surveys (1988-2008) and employing a variety of spatial and empirical estimation techniques, results indicate that in addition to own-child mortality, neighbourhood child mortality shocks are also a determinant of women's fertility in Ghana. Women in neighbourhoods with large child mortality shocks may desire more children as an "insurance" against future losses, as a result of their increased perceptions of own-child mortality risks.

  15. Measuring ICT Use and Learning Outcomes: Evidence from Recent Econometric Studies

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Biagi, Federico; Loi, Massimo

    2013-01-01

    Based on PISA 2009 data, this article studies the relationship between students' computer use and their achievement in reading, mathematics and science in 23 countries. After having categorised computer use into a set of different activities according to the skills they involve, we correlate students' PISA test-scores with an index capturing the…

  16. Nonparametric model validations for hidden Markov models with applications in financial econometrics

    PubMed Central

    Zhao, Zhibiao

    2011-01-01

    We address the nonparametric model validation problem for hidden Markov models with partially observable variables and hidden states. We achieve this goal by constructing a nonparametric simultaneous confidence envelope for transition density function of the observable variables and checking whether the parametric density estimate is contained within such an envelope. Our specification test procedure is motivated by a functional connection between the transition density of the observable variables and the Markov transition kernel of the hidden states. Our approach is applicable for continuous time diffusion models, stochastic volatility models, nonlinear time series models, and models with market microstructure noise. PMID:21750601

  17. Identifiability and Problems of Model Selection for Time-Series Analysis in Econometrics.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1980-01-01

    to the desired quantitative economic relationships since these are " encoded " in the models and therefore must be recoverable from the models’ structure...hindered by "lack of data" (man; ;;cinti4ic c a,.’nces, such as T𔃻H ’- NTPN’s photoelectric law and even more ;is ;:-eC!ral relativity, were conceived

  18. Measuring the Impact of Financial Intermediation: Linking Contract Theory to Econometric Policy Evaluation *

    PubMed Central

    Townsend, Robert M.; Urzua, Sergio S.

    2010-01-01

    We study the impact that financial intermediation can have on productivity through the alleviation of credit constraints in occupation choice and/or an improved allocation of risk, using both static and dynamic structural models as well as reduced form OLS and IV regressions. Our goal in this paper is to bring these two strands of the literature together. Even though, under certain assumptions, IV regressions can recover accurately the true model-generated local average treatment effect, these are quantitatively different, in order of magnitude and even sign, from other policy impact parameters (e.g., ATE and TT). We also show that laying out clearly alternative models can guide the search for instruments. On the other hand adding more margins of decision, i.e., occupation choice and intermediation jointly, or adding more periods with promised utilities as key state variables, as in optimal multi-period contracts, can cause the misinterpretation of IV as the causal effect of interest. PMID:20436953

  19. Housing land transaction data and structural econometric estimation of preference parameters for urban economic simulation models.

    PubMed

    Caruso, Geoffrey; Cavailhès, Jean; Peeters, Dominique; Thomas, Isabelle; Frankhauser, Pierre; Vuidel, Gilles

    2015-12-01

    This paper describes a dataset of 6284 land transactions prices and plot surfaces in 3 medium-sized cities in France (Besançon, Dijon and Brest). The dataset includes road accessibility as obtained from a minimization algorithm, and the amount of green space available to households in the neighborhood of the transactions, as evaluated from a land cover dataset. Further to the data presentation, the paper describes how these variables can be used to estimate the non-observable parameters of a residential choice function explicitly derived from a microeconomic model. The estimates are used by Caruso et al. (2015) to run a calibrated microeconomic urban growth simulation model where households are assumed to trade-off accessibility and local green space amenities.

  20. Reply to: Econometric issues in testing the age neutrality of health care expenditure.

    PubMed

    Zweifel, P; Felder, S; Meier, M

    2001-10-01

    Salas and Raftery allege that in our paper, (1) remaining life expectancy is an endogenous explanatory variable of health care expenditure and (2) the parameter designed to correct for sample selection bias in fact represents a hidden relationship between health care expenditure and age. We argue that claim (1) is not supported by the available empirical evidence, while claim (2) seems to derive from a too cursory reading of our paper.

  1. Two-stage residual inclusion estimation: addressing endogeneity in health econometric modeling.

    PubMed

    Terza, Joseph V; Basu, Anirban; Rathouz, Paul J

    2008-05-01

    The paper focuses on two estimation methods that have been widely used to address endogeneity in empirical research in health economics and health services research-two-stage predictor substitution (2SPS) and two-stage residual inclusion (2SRI). 2SPS is the rote extension (to nonlinear models) of the popular linear two-stage least squares estimator. The 2SRI estimator is similar except that in the second-stage regression, the endogenous variables are not replaced by first-stage predictors. Instead, first-stage residuals are included as additional regressors. In a generic parametric framework, we show that 2SRI is consistent and 2SPS is not. Results from a simulation study and an illustrative example also recommend against 2SPS and favor 2SRI. Our findings are important given that there are many prominent examples of the application of inconsistent 2SPS in the recent literature. This study can be used as a guide by future researchers in health economics who are confronted with endogeneity in their empirical work.

  2. An econometric analysis of screening and treatment of patients with suspected Chlamydia.

    PubMed

    Tavakoli, Manouche; Craig, Ann-Marie; Malek, Mo

    2002-02-01

    Chlamydia trachomatis is probably the most common sexually transmitted disease in the Western industrialised countries with devastating consequences. However, it is an infection that can be so easily treated. There are over 50 million new cases occurring each year. In the United States chlamydia is seen as the most common and costly of the bacterial sexually transmitted diseases (STD), with approximately 4 million new cases occurring each year at an estimated total cost of $2.4 billion. The characteristic of this infection is its difficulty of detection that promotes its spread and making its prediction rather complex. Chlamydial infections are commonly asymptomatic or cause mild or non-specific symptoms and signs, which are not easily detected. Approximately 70% of women with endocervical infections and up to 50% of men with urethral infections are asymptomatic and thus not likely to seek medical care. Chlamydia has become known as the "silent epidemic". It is the more frequently identifiable single cause of pelvic inflammatory disease (PID), occurring in an estimated 15-40% of women. The primary objective of the study was to identify factors and quantify their contribution to the risk of being infected with Chlamydia and to construct an easy to use friendly method for early detection. The importance of developing some means of early detection is vital and previous studies suggest that selective screening might be one solution. A logit model was fitted to three broad variables: behavioural, patients' characteristics, and signs/symptoms noted by patient. The age of the women, the number of sexual partners over the past year, previous history of sexually transmitted disease, the use of barrier contraception and patients' and their partners' signs and symptoms were found to be among the most important variables. Such a model should allow patients who are in a high-risk category, allowing appropriate treatment.

  3. Nutrient-dense food groups have high energy costs: an econometric approach to nutrient profiling.

    PubMed

    Maillot, Matthieu; Darmon, Nicole; Darmon, Michel; Lafay, Lionel; Drewnowski, Adam

    2007-07-01

    Consumers wishing to replace some of the foods in their diets with more nutrient-dense options need to be able to identify such foods on the basis of nutrient profiling. The present study used nutrient profiling to rank 7 major food groups and 25 subgroups in terms of their contribution to dietary energy, diet quality, and diet cost for 1332 adult participants in the French National INCA1 Study. Nutrient profiles were based on the presence of 23 qualifying nutrients, expressed as the percentage of nutrient adequacy per 8 MJ, and 3 negative or disqualifying nutrients, expressed as the percentage of the maximal recommended values for saturated fatty acids, added sugar, and sodium per 1.4 kg. Calculated cost of energy (euro/8 MJ) was based on the mean retail price of 619 foods in the nutrient composition database. The meat and the fruit and vegetables food groups had the highest nutritional quality but were associated with highest energy costs. Sweets and salted snacks had the lowest nutritional quality but were also one of the least expensive sources of dietary energy. Starches and grains were unique because they were low in disqualifying nutrients yet provided low-cost dietary energy. Within each major food group, some subgroups had a higher nutritient-to-price ratio than others. However, the fact that food groups with the more favorable nutrient profiles were also associated with higher energy costs suggests that the present structure of food prices may be a barrier to the adoption of food-based dietary guidelines, at least by low-income households.

  4. Measuring the Impact of Financial Intermediation: Linking Contract Theory to Econometric Policy Evaluation.

    PubMed

    Townsend, Robert M; Urzua, Sergio S

    2009-09-01

    We study the impact that financial intermediation can have on productivity through the alleviation of credit constraints in occupation choice and/or an improved allocation of risk, using both static and dynamic structural models as well as reduced form OLS and IV regressions. Our goal in this paper is to bring these two strands of the literature together. Even though, under certain assumptions, IV regressions can recover accurately the true model-generated local average treatment effect, these are quantitatively different, in order of magnitude and even sign, from other policy impact parameters (e.g., ATE and TT). We also show that laying out clearly alternative models can guide the search for instruments. On the other hand adding more margins of decision, i.e., occupation choice and intermediation jointly, or adding more periods with promised utilities as key state variables, as in optimal multi-period contracts, can cause the misinterpretation of IV as the causal effect of interest.

  5. An econometric analysis of the effects of the penalty points system driver's license in Spain.

    PubMed

    Castillo-Manzano, José I; Castro-Nuño, Mercedes; Pedregal, Diego J

    2010-07-01

    This article seeks to quantify the effects of the penalty points system driver's license during the 18-month period following its coming into force. This is achieved by means of univariate and multivariate unobserved component models set up in a state space framework estimated using maximum likelihood. A detailed intervention analysis is carried out in order to test for the effects and their duration of the introduction of the penalty points system driver's license in Spain. Other variables, mainly indicators of the level of economic activity in Spain, are also considered. Among the main effects, we can mention an average reduction of almost 12.6% in the number of deaths in highway accidents. It would take at least 2 years for that effect to disappear. For the rest of the safety indicator variables (vehicle occupants injured in highway accidents and vehicle occupants injured in accidents built-up areas) the effects disappeared 1 year after the law coming into force.

  6. The transition from good to poor health: an econometric study of the older population.

    PubMed

    Buckley, Neil J; Denton, Frank T; Robb, A Leslie; Spencer, Byron G

    2004-09-01

    This is a study of the influence of socioeconomic factors on the state of health of older Canadians. Three years of panel data from the Survey of Labour and Income Dynamics are used to model the transition probabilities between good and poor health. Care is taken to avoid the problem of endogeneity of income in modelling its effects, and to adjust reported income to free it from its strong association with age at the time of the survey. Of particular note are the significant effects found for income, in spite of universal public health care coverage. Significant effects are found also for age, education, and other variables.

  7. Econometric Model for Optimizing Troop Dining Facility Operations (The Army Master Menu Study).

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1982-11-01

    SCrAMBLED EGGS ,KIND : ENT RECIPE : L-3 *GPTLLED RACON *KIND : ENT RECIPE : L-t5-3 ,GRILLED HAM SLICES ,KIND : ENT RECIPE : Q-47 ,Ho, FRIED POIATOLS ,KIND... RECIPE : F-I? , SCRAMBLED EGGS ,KIND : ENT RECIPE : L-1 ,GFILLED BACON tKIND : ENT RECIPE : L-31 :CQPJ GROUND BLEF ::IND : CNI RECIPE : x-i1 ,PANCAKES IMIK...FRIED FGGS ,KIND : ENT RECIPE : F-11-2 :CHEESE OMELETTE ,KIND : ENT PECIPE: F-13 9SCRAMBLED EGGS KIND : ENT RECIPE : L-2

  8. An econometric analysis of regional differences in household waste collection: The case of plastic packaging waste in Sweden

    SciTech Connect

    Hage, Olle Soederholm, Patrik

    2008-07-01

    The Swedish producer responsibility ordinance mandates producers to collect and recycle packaging materials. This paper investigates the main determinants of collection rates of household plastic packaging waste in Swedish municipalities. This is done by the use of a regression analysis based on cross-sectional data for 252 Swedish municipalities. The results suggest that local policies, geographic/demographic variables, socio-economic factors and environmental preferences all help explain inter-municipality collection rates. For instance, the collection rate appears to be positively affected by increases in the unemployment rate, the share of private houses, and the presence of immigrants (unless newly arrived) in the municipality. The impacts of distance to recycling industry, urbanization rate and population density on collection outcomes turn out, though, to be both statistically and economically insignificant. A reasonable explanation for this is that the monetary compensation from the material companies to the collection entrepreneurs vary depending on region and is typically higher in high-cost regions. This implies that the plastic packaging collection in Sweden may be cost ineffective. Finally, the analysis also shows that municipalities that employ weight-based waste management fees generally experience higher collection rates than those municipalities in which flat and/or volume-based fees are used.

  9. Adequate Funding of Education Programs for At-Risk Children: An Econometric Application of Research-Based Cost Differentials

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Alexander, Kern; Wall, Andrew

    2006-01-01

    This article contributes to the ongoing discussion of the adequacy of funding for public schools, specifically with regard to the provision of programs for at-risk children. Of particular concern is the determination of realistic, research-based costs of adequately funded programs. This article has three basic parts: the definition and measurement…

  10. Econometric analysis on the impact of macroeconomic variables toward financial performance: A case of Malaysian public listed logistics companies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zakariah, Sahidah; Pyeman, Jaafar; Ghazali, Rahmat; Rahman, Ibrahim A.; Rashid, Ahmad Husni Mohd; Shamsuddin, Sofian

    2014-12-01

    The primary concern of this study is to analyse the impact against macroeconomic variables upon the financial performance, particularly in the case of public listed logistics companies in Malaysia. This study incorporated five macroeconomic variables and four proxies of financial performance. The macroeconomic variables selected are gross domestic product (GDP), total trade (XM), foreign direct investment (FDI), inflation rate (INF), and interest rate (INT). This study is extended to the usage of ratio analysis to predict financial performance in relation to the changes upon macroeconomic variables. As such, this study selected four (4) ratios as proxies to financial performance, which is Operating Profit Margin (OPM), Net Profit Margin (NPM), Return on Asset (ROA), Return on Equity (ROE). The findings of this study may appear non-controversial to some, but it resulted in the following important consensus; (1) GDP is found to be highly impacting NPM and least of ROA, (2) XM has high positive impact on OPM and least on ROE, (3) FDI appear to have insignificant impact towards NPM, and (4) INF and INT show similar negative impact on financial performance, precisely highly negative on OPM and least on ROA. Such findings also conform to the local logistic industry settings, specifically in regards to public listed logistics companies in relation to its financial performance.

  11. A Spatial Probit Econometric Model of Land Change: The Case of Infrastructure Development in Western Amazonia, Peru.

    PubMed

    Arima, E Y

    2016-01-01

    Tropical forests are now at the center stage of climate mitigation policies worldwide given their roles as sources of carbon emissions resulting from deforestation and forest degradation. Although the international community has created mechanisms such as REDD+ to reduce those emissions, developing tropical countries continue to invest in infrastructure development in an effort to spur economic growth. Construction of roads in particular is known to be an important driver of deforestation. This article simulates the impact of road construction on deforestation in Western Amazonia, Peru, and quantifies the amount of carbon emissions associated with projected deforestation. To accomplish this objective, the article adopts a Bayesian probit land change model in which spatial dependencies are defined between regions or groups of pixels instead of between individual pixels, thereby reducing computational requirements. It also compares and contrasts the patterns of deforestation predicted by both spatial and non-spatial probit models. The spatial model replicates complex patterns of deforestation whereas the non-spatial model fails to do so. In terms of policy, both models suggest that road construction will increase deforestation by a modest amount, between 200-300 km2. This translates into aboveground carbon emissions of 1.36 and 1.85 x 106 tons. However, recent introduction of palm oil in the region serves as a cautionary example that the models may be underestimating the impact of roads.

  12. A spatial econometric panel data examination of endogenous versus exogenous interaction in Chinese province-level patenting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    LeSage, James P.; Sheng, Yuxue

    2014-07-01

    We examine the provincial-level relationship between domestic Chinese intellectual property (IP) and knowledge stocks using a space-time panel model and data set covering monthly patent activity over the period 2002-2010. The goal of the modeling exercise is to explore the elasticity response of IP to knowledge stocks classified by type of creator (universities and research institutes, enterprises, and individuals). A focus is on spatial and time dependence in the relationship between knowledge stocks and IP, which implies spatial spillovers and diffusion over time. Many past studies of regional knowledge production have focused on patent applications as a proxy for regional output from the knowledge production process. However, this ignores the distinction between patent applications and patents granted, with the latter reflecting a decision and ability to convert knowledge produced into IP. This study differs in its focus on the regional relation between IP and knowledge stocks and the space-time dynamics of these. Using patents granted as a proxy for IP, and past patent applications as a proxy for regional knowledge stocks, allows us to explore the implied quality of knowledge production by various types of creators. Because Chinese patent applications have grown by 22 %, questions have been raised about the quantity versus quality of these applications. Our findings shed light on this issue.

  13. An Econometric Analysis of the Effect of Fully-Funded Graduate Education on Performance for Surface Warfare Officers

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1994-03-01

    Finally, given thrt potential selectivity bias is an underlying theme throughout this thesis, it is important to 12 define the nature and the...general or specific in nature . General education (or training) increases an individual’s productivity to nmany employers equally, including the Navy...majority of course work in a civilian master’s degree in Business Administration (MBA) is general in nature due to its value to a wide variety of

  14. Advances in nonmarket valuation econometrics: Spatial heterogeneity in hedonic pricing models and preference heterogeneity in stated preference models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yoo, Jin Woo

    In my 1st essay, the study explores Pennsylvania residents. willingness to pay for development of renewable energy technologies such as solar power, wind power, biomass electricity, and other renewable energy using a choice experiment method. Principle component analysis identified 3 independent attitude components that affect the variation of preference, a desire for renewable energy and environmental quality and concern over cost. The results show that urban residents have a higher desire for environmental quality and concern less about cost than rural residents and consequently have a higher willingness to pay to increase renewable energy production. The results of sub-sample analysis show that a representative respondent in rural (urban) Pennsylvania is willing to pay 3.8(5.9) and 4.1(5.7)/month for increasing the share of Pennsylvania electricity generated from wind power and other renewable energy by 1 percent point, respectively. Mean WTP for solar and biomass electricity was not significantly different from zero. In my second essay, heterogeneity of individual WTP for various renewable energy technologies is investigated using several different variants of the multinomial logit model: a simple MNL with interaction terms, a latent class choice model, a random parameter mixed logit choice model, and a random parameter-latent class choice model. The results of all models consistently show that respondents. preference for individual renewable technology is heterogeneous, but the degree of heterogeneity differs for different renewable technologies. In general, the random parameter logit model with interactions and a hybrid random parameter logit-latent class model fit better than other models and better capture respondents. heterogeneity of preference for renewable energy. The impact of the land under agricultural conservation easement (ACE) contract on the values of nearby residential properties is investigated using housing sales data in two Pennsylvania Counties. The spatial-lag (SLM), the spatial error (SEM) and the spatial error component (SEC) models were compared. A geographically weighted regression (GWR) model is estimated to study the spatial heterogeneity of the marginal implicit prices of ACE impact within each county. New hybrid spatial hedonic models, the GWR-SEC and a modified GWR-SEM, are estimated such that both spatial autocorrelation and heterogeneity are accounted. The results show that the coefficient of land under easement contract varies spatially within one county, but not within the other county studied. Also, ACE's are found to have both positive and negative impacts on the values of nearby residential properties. Among global spatial models, the SEM fit better than the SLM and the SEC. Statistical goodness of fit measures showed that the GWR-SEC model fit better than the GWR or the GWR-SEC model. Finally, the GWR-SEC showed spatial autocorrelation is stronger in one county than in the other county.

  15. An econometric analysis of changes in arable land utilization using multinomial logit model in Pinggu district, Beijing, China.

    PubMed

    Xu, Yueqing; McNamara, Paul; Wu, Yanfang; Dong, Yue

    2013-10-15

    Arable land in China has been decreasing as a result of rapid population growth and economic development as well as urban expansion, especially in developed regions around cities where quality farmland quickly disappears. This paper analyzed changes in arable land utilization during 1993-2008 in the Pinggu district, Beijing, China, developed a multinomial logit (MNL) model to determine spatial driving factors influencing arable land-use change, and simulated arable land transition probabilities. Land-use maps, as well as social-economic and geographical data were used in the study. The results indicated that arable land decreased significantly between 1993 and 2008. Lost arable land shifted into orchard, forestland, settlement, and transportation land. Significant differences existed for arable land transitions among different landform areas. Slope, elevation, population density, urbanization rate, distance to settlements, and distance to roadways were strong drivers influencing arable land transition to other uses. The MNL model was proved effective for predicting transition probabilities in land use from arable land to other land-use types, thus can be used for scenario analysis to develop land-use policies and land-management measures in this metropolitan area.

  16. A Spatial Probit Econometric Model of Land Change: The Case of Infrastructure Development in Western Amazonia, Peru

    PubMed Central

    Arima, E. Y.

    2016-01-01

    Tropical forests are now at the center stage of climate mitigation policies worldwide given their roles as sources of carbon emissions resulting from deforestation and forest degradation. Although the international community has created mechanisms such as REDD+ to reduce those emissions, developing tropical countries continue to invest in infrastructure development in an effort to spur economic growth. Construction of roads in particular is known to be an important driver of deforestation. This article simulates the impact of road construction on deforestation in Western Amazonia, Peru, and quantifies the amount of carbon emissions associated with projected deforestation. To accomplish this objective, the article adopts a Bayesian probit land change model in which spatial dependencies are defined between regions or groups of pixels instead of between individual pixels, thereby reducing computational requirements. It also compares and contrasts the patterns of deforestation predicted by both spatial and non-spatial probit models. The spatial model replicates complex patterns of deforestation whereas the non-spatial model fails to do so. In terms of policy, both models suggest that road construction will increase deforestation by a modest amount, between 200–300 km2. This translates into aboveground carbon emissions of 1.36 and 1.85 x 106 tons. However, recent introduction of palm oil in the region serves as a cautionary example that the models may be underestimating the impact of roads. PMID:27010739

  17. An econometric analysis of regional differences in household waste collection: the case of plastic packaging waste in Sweden.

    PubMed

    Hage, Olle; Söderholm, Patrik

    2008-01-01

    The Swedish producer responsibility ordinance mandates producers to collect and recycle packaging materials. This paper investigates the main determinants of collection rates of household plastic packaging waste in Swedish municipalities. This is done by the use of a regression analysis based on cross-sectional data for 252 Swedish municipalities. The results suggest that local policies, geographic/demographic variables, socio-economic factors and environmental preferences all help explain inter-municipality collection rates. For instance, the collection rate appears to be positively affected by increases in the unemployment rate, the share of private houses, and the presence of immigrants (unless newly arrived) in the municipality. The impacts of distance to recycling industry, urbanization rate and population density on collection outcomes turn out, though, to be both statistically and economically insignificant. A reasonable explanation for this is that the monetary compensation from the material companies to the collection entrepreneurs vary depending on region and is typically higher in high-cost regions. This implies that the plastic packaging collection in Sweden may be cost ineffective. Finally, the analysis also shows that municipalities that employ weight-based waste management fees generally experience higher collection rates than those municipalities in which flat and/or volume-based fees are used.

  18. Healthcare Costs Associated with an Adequate Intake of Sugars, Salt and Saturated Fat in Germany: A Health Econometrical Analysis.

    PubMed

    Meier, Toni; Senftleben, Karolin; Deumelandt, Peter; Christen, Olaf; Riedel, Katja; Langer, Martin

    2015-01-01

    Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) represent not only the major driver for quality-restricted and lost life years; NCDs and their related medical treatment costs also pose a substantial economic burden on healthcare and intra-generational tax distribution systems. The main objective of this study was therefore to quantify the economic burden of unbalanced nutrition in Germany--in particular the effects of an excessive consumption of fat, salt and sugar--and to examine different reduction scenarios on this basis. In this study, the avoidable direct cost savings in the German healthcare system attributable to an adequate intake of saturated fatty acids (SFA), salt and sugar (mono- & disaccharides, MDS) were calculated. To this end, disease-specific healthcare cost data from the official Federal Health Monitoring for the years 2002-2008 and disease-related risk factors, obtained by thoroughly searching the literature, were used. A total of 22 clinical endpoints with 48 risk-outcome pairs were considered. Direct healthcare costs attributable to an unbalanced intake of fat, salt and sugar are calculated to be 16.8 billion EUR (CI95%: 6.3-24.1 billion EUR) in the year 2008, which represents 7% (CI95% 2%-10%) of the total treatment costs in Germany (254 billion EUR). This is equal to 205 EUR per person annually. The excessive consumption of sugar poses the highest burden, at 8.6 billion EUR (CI95%: 3.0-12.1); salt ranks 2nd at 5.3 billion EUR (CI95%: 3.2-7.3) and saturated fat ranks 3rd at 2.9 billion EUR (CI95%: 32 million-4.7 billion). Predicted direct healthcare cost savings by means of a balanced intake of sugars, salt and saturated fat are substantial. However, as this study solely considered direct medical treatment costs regarding an adequate consumption of fat, salt and sugars, the actual societal and economic gains, resulting both from direct and indirect cost savings, may easily exceed 16.8 billion EUR.

  19. The 'bankability' of the new waste technologies: an econometric method for risk sharing in private finance waste contracts.

    PubMed

    Black, I; Seaton, R; Chackiath, S; Wagland, S T; Pollard, S J T; Longhurst, P J

    2011-12-01

    The identification of risk and its appropriate allocation to partners in project consortia is essential for minimizing overall project risks, ensuring timely delivery and maximizing benefit for money invested. Risk management guidance available from government bodies, especially in the UK, does not specify methodologies for quantitative risk assessment, nor does it offer a procedure for allocating risk among project partners. Here, a methodology to quantify project risk and potential approaches to allocating risk and their implications are discussed. Construction and operation of a waste management facility through a public-private finance contract are discussed. Public-private partnership contracts are special purpose vehicle (SPV) financing methods promoted by the UK government to boost private sector investment in facilities for public service enhancement. Our findings question the appropriateness of using standard deviation as a measure for project risk and confirm the concept of portfolio theory, suggesting the pooling of risk can reduce total risk and its impact.

  20. Defense Spending and Regional Growth: An Examination of an Export-Base Model and an Econometric Model.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1987-06-01

    44 6 I. INTRODUCTION A. DEFENSE SPENDING AND GROWTH During the past decade, total defense expenditures have increased in relation...to the total of all federal expenditures . Many factors have played a role in this dramatic rise in the importance of’ defense spending . Two major...8217 expenditures and precise amount spent in the year being examined should closely approximately the 70 percent conversion figure. Defense spending growth

  1. A structural econometric model of family valuation and choice of employer-sponsored health insurance in the United States.

    PubMed

    Vanness, David J

    2003-09-01

    This paper estimates a fully structural unitary household model of employment and health insurance decisions for dual wage-earner families with children in the United States, using data from the 1987 National Medical Expenditure Survey. Families choose hours of work and the breakdown of compensation between cash wages and health insurance benefits for each wage earner in order to maximize expected utility under uncertain need for medical care. Heterogeneous demand for the employer-sponsored health insurance is thus generated directly from variations in health status and earning potential. The paper concludes by discussing the benefits of using structural models for simulating welfare effects of insurance reform relative to the costly assumptions that must be imposed for identification.

  2. The impact of child health and nutrition on education in developing countries: theory, econometric issues, and recent empirical evidence.

    PubMed

    Glewwe, Paul

    2005-06-01

    Analysis of the impact of child health and nutrition on subsequent school performance is hampered by many difficulties. Research using retrospective data is complicated by the possibility that unobserved factors may determine both nutrition and education outcomes, which will generate correlation between these two outcomes that is not necessarily causal. Randomized trials offer a clearer method for identifying causal relationships, but they are relatively rare and encounter several difficulties in practice. This paper examines theory, estimation strategies, and recent empirical evidence to assess the current state of knowledge on the impact of child health and nutrition on education outcomes in developing countries.

  3. Alternative approaches for econometric analysis of panel count data using dynamic latent class models (with application to doctor visits data).

    PubMed

    Hyppolite, Judex; Trivedi, Pravin

    2012-06-01

    Cross-sectional latent class regression models, also known as switching regressions or hidden Markov models, cannot identify transitions between classes that may occur over time. This limitation can potentially be overcome when panel data are available. For such data, we develop a sequence of models that combine features of the static cross-sectional latent class (finite mixture) models with those of hidden Markov models. We model the probability of movement between categories in terms of a Markovian structure, which links the current state with a previous state, where state may refer to the category of an individual. This article presents a suite of mixture models of varying degree of complexity and flexibility for use in a panel count data setting, beginning with a baseline model which is a two-component mixture of Poisson distribution in which latent classes are fixed and permanent. Sequentially, we extend this framework (i) to allow the mixing proportions to be smoothly varying continuous functions of time-varying covariates, (ii) to add time dependence to the benchmark model by modeling the class-indicator variable as a first-order Markov chain and (iii) to extend item (i) by making it dynamic and introducing covariate dependence in the transition probabilities. We develop and implement estimation algorithms for these models and provide an empirical illustration using 1995-1999 panel data on the number of doctor visits derived from the German Socio-Economic Panel.

  4. An econometric analysis of the mental-health effects of major events in the life of older individuals.

    PubMed

    Lindeboom, Maarten; Portrait, France; van den Berg, Gerard J

    2002-09-01

    Major events in the life of an older individual, such as retirement, a significant decrease in income, death of the spouse, disability, and a move to a nursing home, may affect the mental-health status of the individual. For example, the individual may enter a prolonged depression. We investigate this using unique longitudinal panel data that track labor market behavior, health status, and major life events, over time. To deal with endogenous aspects of these events we apply fixed effects estimation methods. We find some strikingly large effects of certain events on the occurrence of depression. We relate the results to the health care and labor market policy towards older individuals.

  5. Econometric Model for Optimizing Troop Dining Facility Operations. User’s and Programmer’s Reference Manual,

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1982-12-01

    NPCIP: F -i SCRAMBLED EGGS KIND t EN? RECIPE : L-2 :OVEN FRIED BACON ,KIND t EN? RECIPE : L-6B-: ,BAKED SAUSAGE LINKS :KIND x EN? RECIPE : Q-.6Z ,COTTAGE...BUTTER GRASKN VREC PE v -1 : DDE F IE EGGS :ID MRECIPE: F-11-2 :CHEESE OMELETTE 91D ENT RECIPE : F-13 * SCRAMBLED EGGS ::IND ENT RECIPE : L-2 ,OVEN FRIED...vFRENCH TOAST ,KIND : ENT R CIPE: CE-Z-3 *HOT ROLLED OTIS KIND t EN? RECIPE : F- - RIDDLE FRIED EGGS :KIND S EN? PE~lPE: 11- ,CHEESE OMELETTE ,KIND

  6. HOW JOINT IS JOINT FOREST PRODUCTION: AN ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF TIMBER SUPPLY CONDITIONAL ON ENDOGENOUS AMENITY VALUES. (R828785)

    EPA Science Inventory

    The perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Concl...

  7. United States Marine Corps Career Designation Board: Significant Factors in Predicting Selection

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2014-03-01

    59  B.  THEORETICAL MODEL ............................................................................59  C.  ECONOMETRIC ...60  Figure 4.  Econometric Models ........................................................................................60  Figure 5... Econometric Models for Law Competitive Category ......................................61  Figure 6.  Combat Arms Competitive Category Interactive

  8. Reliability-based econometrics of aerospace structural systems: Design criteria and test options. Ph.D. Thesis - Georgia Inst. of Tech.

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Thomas, J. M.; Hanagud, S.

    1974-01-01

    The design criteria and test options for aerospace structural reliability were investigated. A decision methodology was developed for selecting a combination of structural tests and structural design factors. The decision method involves the use of Bayesian statistics and statistical decision theory. Procedures are discussed for obtaining and updating data-based probabilistic strength distributions for aerospace structures when test information is available and for obtaining subjective distributions when data are not available. The techniques used in developing the distributions are explained.

  9. Epidemiology meets econometrics: using time-series analysis to observe the impact of bed occupancy rates on the spread of multidrug-resistant bacteria.

    PubMed

    Kaier, K; Meyer, E; Dettenkofer, M; Frank, U

    2010-10-01

    Two multivariate time-series analyses were carried out to identify the impact of bed occupancy rates, turnover intervals and the average length of hospital stay on the spread of multidrug-resistant bacteria in a teaching hospital. Epidemiological data on the incidences of meticillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) and extended-spectrum beta-lactamase (ESBL)-producing bacteria were collected. Time-series of bed occupancy rates, turnover intervals and the average length of stay were tested for inclusion in the models as independent variables. Incidence was defined as nosocomial cases per 1000 patient-days. This included all patients infected or colonised with MRSA/ESBL more than 48h after admission. Between January 2003 and July 2008, a mean incidence of 0.15 nosocomial MRSA cases was identified. ESBL was not included in the surveillance until January 2005. Between January 2005 and July 2008 the mean incidence of nosocomial ESBL was also 0.15 cases per 1000 patient-days. The two multivariate models demonstrate a temporal relationship between bed occupancy rates in general wards and the incidence of nosocomial MRSA and ESBL. Similarly, the temporal relationship between the monthly average length of stay in intensive care units (ICUs) and the incidence of nosocomial MRSA and ESBL was demonstrated. Overcrowding in general wards and long periods of ICU stay were identified as factors influencing the spread of multidrug-resistant bacteria in hospital settings.

  10. The Hog Cycle of Law Professors: An Econometric Time Series Analysis of the Entry-Level Job Market in Legal Academia.

    PubMed

    Engel, Christoph; Hamann, Hanjo

    2016-01-01

    The (German) market for law professors fulfils the conditions for a hog cycle: In the short run, supply cannot be extended or limited; future law professors must be hired soon after they first present themselves, or leave the market; demand is inelastic. Using a comprehensive German dataset, we show that the number of market entries today is negatively correlated with the number of market entries eight years ago. This suggests short-sighted behavior of young scholars at the time when they decide to prepare for the market. Using our statistical model, we make out-of-sample predictions for the German academic market in law until 2020.

  11. The Hog Cycle of Law Professors: An Econometric Time Series Analysis of the Entry-Level Job Market in Legal Academia

    PubMed Central

    Hamann, Hanjo

    2016-01-01

    The (German) market for law professors fulfils the conditions for a hog cycle: In the short run, supply cannot be extended or limited; future law professors must be hired soon after they first present themselves, or leave the market; demand is inelastic. Using a comprehensive German dataset, we show that the number of market entries today is negatively correlated with the number of market entries eight years ago. This suggests short-sighted behavior of young scholars at the time when they decide to prepare for the market. Using our statistical model, we make out-of-sample predictions for the German academic market in law until 2020. PMID:27467518

  12. An Econometric Analysis of the Unemployment Insurance System in a Local Urban Labor Market. Final Report for September 1, 1973--September 30, 1974.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Marston, Stephen Tilney

    The study derives a model of the unemployment insurance (UI) system and its relationship to the labor market, estimates it with data from the Detroit Standard Metropolitan Statistical Area, and evaluates its potential use to forecast UI benefit amounts, UI insured unemployment, and UI exhaustions. It further uses the model to analyze policy issues…

  13. A Non-Econometric Analysis with Algebraic Models to Forecast the Numbers of Newly Hired and Retirement of Public Primary School Teachers in Taiwan

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lung-Hsing, Kuo; Hung-Jen, Yang; Ying-Wen, Lin; Shang-Ming, Su

    2011-01-01

    In recent years, the "street teachers" issue has caused social concern in Taiwan. This study estimates the retirement of and needs for newly hired and public primary school teachers in 2010 using an algebraic model from the paper by Husssar (1999). This recursive methodology predicts the number of newly hired public primary school…

  14. Estimation of the Effects of a Ship’s Steaming on the Failure Rate of Its Equipment: An Application of Econometric Analysis.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1980-04-01

    1976) 1976, (Published in Journal of Legal Studies. Vol. (Published in Defense Manpower Policy (Richard V. 5. No. 2) PP 152 L. Cooper , ad.), The Rand...Simpson. Williamt R., "The Aceelerometr Methods, October 1076). AD ACM4 442 PP 231 of Obtaining Aircraft Perfermance from Flight Test VAIlsN. Ommand P...Dependence and Inter-State Cooperation ! The Case of Sub’Selsaran Africa." 141 pp.. Jan 1960 11e11e4. Kenneth G., "The Soviet Involvement in thhe OgdID War

  15. Econometric analysis to evaluate the effect of community-based health insurance on reducing informal self-care in Burkina Faso

    PubMed Central

    Robyn, Paul Jacob; Hill, Allan; Liu, Yuanli; Souares, Aurélia; Savadogo, Germain; Sié, Ali; Sauerborn, Rainer

    2012-01-01

    Objective This study examines the role of community-based health insurance (CBHI) in influencing health-seeking behaviour in Burkina Faso, West Africa. Community-based health insurance was introduced in Nouna district, Burkina Faso, in 2004 with the goal to improve access to contracted providers based at primary- and secondary-level facilities. The paper specifically examines the effect of CBHI enrolment on reducing the prevalence of seeking modern and traditional methods of self-treatment as the first choice in care among the insured population. Methods Three stages of analysis were adopted to measure this effect. First, propensity score matching was used to minimize the observed baseline differences between the insured and uninsured populations. Second, through matching the average treatment effect on the treated, the effect of insurance enrolment on health-seeking behaviour was estimated. Finally, multinomial logistic regression was applied to model demand for available health care options, including no treatment, traditional self-treatment, modern self-treatment, traditional healers and facility-based care. Results For the first choice in care sought, there was no significant difference in the prevalence of self-treatment among the insured and uninsured populations, reaching over 55% for each group. When comparing the alternative option of no treatment, CBHI played no significant role in reducing the demand for self-care (either traditional or modern) or utilization of traditional healers, while it did significantly increase consumption of facility-based care. The average treatment effect on the treated was insignificant for traditional self-care, modern self-care and traditional healer, but was significant with a positive effect for use of facility care. Discussion While CBHI does have a positive impact on facility care utilization, its effect on reducing the prevalence of self-care is limited. The policy recommendations for improving the CBHI scheme’s responsiveness to population health care demand should incorporate community-based initiatives that offer attractive and appropriate alternatives to self-care. PMID:21414993

  16. Effects of Health-Related Food Taxes and Subsidies on Mortality from Diet-Related Disease in New Zealand: An Econometric-Epidemiologic Modelling Study

    PubMed Central

    Ni Mhurchu, Cliona; Eyles, Helen; Genc, Murat; Scarborough, Peter; Rayner, Mike; Mizdrak, Anja; Nnoaham, Kelechi; Blakely, Tony

    2015-01-01

    Background Health-related food taxes and subsidies may promote healthier diets and reduce mortality. Our aim was to estimate the effects of health-related food taxes and subsidies on deaths prevented or postponed (DPP) in New Zealand. Methods A macrosimulation model based on household expenditure data, demand elasticities and population impact fractions for 18 diet-related diseases was used to estimate effects of five tax and subsidy regimens. We used price elasticity values for 24 major commonly consumed food groups in New Zealand, and food expenditure data from national Household Economic Surveys. Changes in mortality from cardiovascular disease, cancer, diabetes and other diet-related diseases were estimated. Findings A 20% subsidy on fruit and vegetables would result in 560 (95% uncertainty interval, 400 to 700) DPP each year (1.9% annual all-cause mortality). A 20% tax on major dietary sources of saturated fat would result in 1,500 (950 to 2,100) DPP (5.0%), and a 20% tax on major dietary sources of sodium would result in 2,000 (1300 to 2,700) DPP (6.8%). Combining taxes on saturated fat and sodium with a fruit and vegetable subsidy would result in 2,400 (1,800 to 3,000) DPP (8.1% mortality annually). A tax on major dietary sources of greenhouse gas emissions would generate 1,200 (750 to 1,700) DPP annually (4.0%). Effects were similar or greater for Maori and low-income households in relative terms. Conclusions Health-related food taxes and subsidies could improve diets and reduce mortality from diet-related disease in New Zealand. Our study adds to the growing evidence base suggesting food pricing policies should improve population health and reduce inequalities, but there is still much work to be done to improve estimation of health impacts. PMID:26154289

  17. A General Econometric Model of the Determinants of Library Subscription Prices of Scholarly Journals: The Role of Exchange Rate Risk and Other Factors.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chressanthis, George A.; Chressanthis, June D.

    1994-01-01

    Provides regression-based empirical evidence of the effects of variations in exchange rate risk on 1985 library prices of the top-ranked 99 journals in economics. The relationship between individual journal prices and library prices is shown, and other factors associated with increases and decreases in library journal prices are given. (Contains…

  18. The effect of changes in health sector resources on infant mortality in the short-run and the long-run: a longitudinal econometric analysis.

    PubMed

    Farahani, Mansour; Subramanian, S V; Canning, David

    2009-06-01

    While countries with higher levels of human resources for health typically have better population health, the evidence that increases in the level of human resources for health leads to improvements in population health is limited. We use a dynamic regression model to obtain estimates of both the short-run and long-term effects of changes in physicians per capita, our measure of health system resources, on infant mortality. Using a dataset of 99 countries at 5-year intervals from 1960-2000, we estimate that increasing the number of physicians by one per 1000 population (roughly a doubling of current levels of provision) decreases the infant mortality rate by 15% within 5 years and by 45% in the long-run with half the long-run gain being achieved in 15 years. We conclude that the long-run effects of heath system resources are substantially larger than previously estimated. Our results suggest, however, that countries that have delayed action on the Millennium Development Goal of reducing infant and child mortality rate by two-thirds by 2015 (relative to 1990) may have difficulty meeting this goal even if they rapidly increase resources now.

  19. The Effect of Reserve Activations and Active-Duty Deployments on Local Employment During the Global War on Terrorism

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2006-01-01

    by the Stata procedure, xtregar. - 25 - 4. ECONOMETRIC RESULTS In this section, we present the results of estimating the econometric model of...Department of Defense federally funded research and development centers. - iii - PREFACE This report presents an econometric analysis of the impact of...Personnel Activated and Deployed...........19 Econometric Methods.............................................20 Sample Selection

  20. 39 CFR 3050.26 - Documentation of demand elasticities and volume forecasts.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... Postal Service shall provide econometric estimates of demand elasticity for all postal products accompanied by the underlying econometric models and the input data sets used; and a volume forecast for...

  1. Estimating the Benefits of the Air Force Purchasing and Supply Chain Management Initiative

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2008-01-01

    challenge by developing an econometric model to account for such “co-occurring” factors. This monograph describes the resulting method and...Applying an Econometric Model to Estimate the Benefits of PSCM Initiatives...15 Applying the Econometric Model for NIIN-Level Outcomes

  2. Hispanics in the U.S. Military

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2006-09-01

    foundation in econometrics , the use of the STATA software, and analytical processes. We sincerely appreciated their help in making this a rewarding...English-language skills. The quantitative portion of the study undertakes econometric analysis of military attrition, promotion, and retention of...study undertakes econometric analysis of military attrition, promotion, and retention of Hispanic enlistees. Enlisted cohort data for all services from

  3. Incentive Pay for Remotely Piloted Aircraft Career Fields

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2012-01-01

    attracting and retaining pilots and sensor operators.” This mono- graph addresses this subject using an econometric model of officer and enlisted...Incentive Pays Evaluating incentive pays requires estimates of their effect on retention and their cost. We used an econometric model of officer and...theoretical overview of how and why pilots and SOs should receive incentive pays. Additionally, the Air Force was tasked with using an econometric

  4. Outputs as Educator Effectiveness in the United States: Shifting towards Political Accountability

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Piro, Jody S.; Mullen, Laurie

    2013-01-01

    The definition of educator effectiveness is being redefined by econometric modeling to evidence student achievement on standardized tests. While the reasons that econometric frameworks are in vogue are many, it is clear that the strength of such models lie in the quantifiable evidence of student learning. Current accountability models frame…

  5. An Examination of the Relationship between Usage and Operating and Support Costs for Air Force Aircraft

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2007-09-01

    S Costs ....................................................................................................... 39 Econometric Methodology Overview...words, I use them both regularly in conversation. I must note that Claire and Yang showed great patience in explaining the nuances econometric theory...RECCE Reconnaissance Aircraft REMIS Reliability and Maintenance Information System SAF/FM Secretary of the Air Force financial Management TAI

  6. 77 FR 1454 - Request for Nominations of Members To Serve on the Census Scientific Advisory Committee

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-01-10

    ..., survey methodology, geospatial analysis, econometrics, cognitive psychology, and computer science as they...: Demography, economics, geography, psychology, statistics, survey methodology, social and behavioral sciences... areas as demography, economics, geography, psychology, statistics, survey methodology, social...

  7. 76 FR 11195 - Request for Nominations of Members To Serve on the Census Scientific Advisory Committee

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-03-01

    ... data collection, statistical analysis, survey methodology, geospatial analysis, econometrics, cognitive psychology, and computer science as they pertain to the full range of Census Bureau programs and activities... following disciplines: demography, economics, geography, psychology, statistics, survey methodology,...

  8. Scale Mixture Models with Applications to Bayesian Inference

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Qin, Zhaohui S.; Damien, Paul; Walker, Stephen

    2003-11-01

    Scale mixtures of uniform distributions are used to model non-normal data in time series and econometrics in a Bayesian framework. Heteroscedastic and skewed data models are also tackled using scale mixture of uniform distributions.

  9. 39 CFR 3050.22 - Documentation supporting attributable cost estimates in the Postal Service's section 3652 report.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... Variability Study; (n) Econometric analysis of postmaster cost variability; (o) Floor Space Survey; and (p) Density studies used to convert weight to cubic feet of mail. ..., Demand Side Variability, and Network Variability studies, including input data, processing programs,...

  10. 39 CFR 3050.22 - Documentation supporting attributable cost estimates in the Postal Service's section 3652 report.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... Variability Study; (n) Econometric analysis of postmaster cost variability; (o) Floor Space Survey; and (p) Density studies used to convert weight to cubic feet of mail. ..., Demand Side Variability, and Network Variability studies, including input data, processing programs,...

  11. 39 CFR 3050.22 - Documentation supporting attributable cost estimates in the Postal Service's section 3652 report.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... Variability Study; (n) Econometric analysis of postmaster cost variability; (o) Floor Space Survey; and (p) Density studies used to convert weight to cubic feet of mail. ..., Demand Side Variability, and Network Variability studies, including input data, processing programs,...

  12. 39 CFR 3050.22 - Documentation supporting attributable cost estimates in the Postal Service's section 3652 report.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... Variability Study; (n) Econometric analysis of postmaster cost variability; (o) Floor Space Survey; and (p) Density studies used to convert weight to cubic feet of mail. ..., Demand Side Variability, and Network Variability studies, including input data, processing programs,...

  13. 39 CFR 3001.31 - Evidence.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... page and line, or the file and the worksheet or spreadsheet page or cell. Where relevant and material... adjustments, if any, to observed data. (iv) Econometric Studies. (a) A presentation of the economic...

  14. 39 CFR 3001.31 - Evidence.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... reference, such as the page and line, or the file and the worksheet or spreadsheet page or cell. Where... adjustments, if any, to observed data. (iv) Econometric Studies. (a) A presentation of the economic...

  15. 39 CFR 3001.31 - Evidence.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... reference, such as the page and line, or the file and the worksheet or spreadsheet page or cell. Where... adjustments, if any, to observed data. (iv) Econometric Studies. (a) A presentation of the economic...

  16. 39 CFR 3001.31 - Evidence.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... reference, such as the page and line, or the file and the worksheet or spreadsheet page or cell. Where... adjustments, if any, to observed data. (iv) Econometric Studies. (a) A presentation of the economic...

  17. 39 CFR 3001.31 - Evidence.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... reference, such as the page and line, or the file and the worksheet or spreadsheet page or cell. Where... adjustments, if any, to observed data. (iv) Econometric Studies. (a) A presentation of the economic...

  18. Groundwater response to changing water-use practices in sloping aquifers using convolution of transient response functions

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    An integrated foundation is presented to study the impacts of external forcings on irrigated agricultural systems. Individually, models are presented that simulate groundwater hydrogeology and econometric farm level crop choices and irrigated water use. The natural association between groundwater we...

  19. Groundwater economics: An object-oriented foundation for integrated studies of irrigated agricultural systems

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    An integrated foundation is presented to study the impacts of external forcings on irrigated agricultural systems. Individually, models are presented that simulate groundwater hydrogeology and econometric farm level crop choices and irrigated water use. The natural association between groundwater we...

  20. Regional Short-Term Energy Model (RSTEM) Overview

    EIA Publications

    2009-01-01

    The Regional Short-Term Energy Model (RSTEM) utilizes estimated econometric relationships for demand, inventories and prices to forecast energy market outcomes across key sectors and selected regions throughout the United States.

  1. Government Accountability Office Bid Protests in Air Force Source Selections: Evidence and Options

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2012-01-01

    government documents, interviews with relevant officials inside and outside the Air Force, econometric analysis of data from administrative federal databases...pro- grams, for source selection more generally, and for federal policies associated with bid protests in source selections. The econometric methods...the participants. We see opportunities to make changes in five areas . The Air Force Acquisition Improvement Plan (AIP) has already begun to implement

  2. Sleep Inertia Project: Progress Report ver. 1.1-alpha

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2009-10-20

    frequency preprocessing methods and models of effective connectivity evaluated by dynamic causal modeling and econometric models (such as Granger ...connectivity evaluated by dynamic causal modeling and econometric models (such as Granger causality and related meth- ods) [7, 8, 1] 2 Methods The EEG...patterns . 59 4.2.1 Two classes of no-nap and 40 minute nap conditions . . . . 59 4.2.2 Trial of clustering/classification of test batteries 8 to 17

  3. Sleep Inertia Project: Progress Report ver. 1.1alpha

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2010-02-08

    methods and models of effective connectivity evaluated by dynamic causal modeling and econometric models (such as Granger causality and related...Z39-18 ods [2, 3, 4, 5, 6] and models of effective connectivity evaluated by dynamic causal modeling and econometric models (such as Granger causality ...patterns . 59 4.2.1 Two classes of no-nap and 40 minute nap conditions . . . . 59 4.2.2 Trial of clustering/classification of test batteries 8 to 17

  4. Developing an Aggregate Marginal Cost Per Flying Hour Model for the U.S. Air Force’s F-15 Fighter Aircraft

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2006-03-01

    time periods. According to Peter Kennedy in “A Guide to Econometrics ”, there are numerous appealing features of the panel model, of which the...Criteria (AIC) values. According to Kennedy, in A Guide to Econometrics , the use of the AIC and R2 to determine appropriate lag lengths in time- 40...two regressions are different ( Stata , 2005:306-307). For the purpose of this research, failing to reject Ho, a large p-value, was the desired outcome

  5. An Empirical Examination of the Impact of JROTC Participation on Enlistment, Retention and Attrition

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2004-12-01

    Year (FY) 1980 to 2000. We employ a number of econometric models with the HS&B data, including single equation PROBIT and LOGIT models, two-stage...Manpower Data Center (DMDC) enlisted personnel cohort files from Fiscal Year (FY) 1980 to 2000. We employ a number of econometric models with the HS&B...We would also like to thank our Associate Advisor, Professor Elda Pema, for teaching us STATA that helped save time on our empirical analysis. Her

  6. The Effect of State Unemployment Rate on Attrition for First-Term U.S. Navy Enlisted Personnel

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2011-03-01

    Armed Forces Qualification Test DoD Department of Defense GAO Government Accounting Office LOS Length of Service NEM Navy Econometric ...recruits lost during basic training is nearly 9 percent. These financial losses from boot camp attrition alone equates to over $93 million annually (GAO...SAG and SERCO Corporations in Alexandria, VA used data from their Navy Econometric Model (NEM) for the Naval Postgraduate School. The NEM data

  7. The Development of Career Naval Officers from the U.S. Naval Academy: A Statistical Analysis of the Effects of Selectivity and Human Capital

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1997-06-01

    Gender Data. Washington, DC: Government Printing Office. NSIAD-95- 169. Gujarati , Damodar N. 1995. Basic Econometrics. 3rd Edition. New York: McGraw... Gujarati , Damodar N. 1995. Basic Econometrics. 3rd Edition. New York: McGraw- Hill, INC. Guthrie, Tanya J. 1992. Career Intentions of Army Officers...the marginal probability effect for the reference (or notional) midshipman/officer of a change in an independent variable. ( Gujarati , 1995) 75 2

  8. Socioeconomic Status and Performance in the US Army and US Marine Corps

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1998-03-01

    be explained by 73 Damodar N. Gujarati , Basic Econometrics (New York: McGraw-Hill Book Co.), 1988, pp. 369-373. 45 large differences in race...these techniques are appropriate when estimating the relationship between a 1 This paragraph draws heavily from the discussion of OLS in Gujarati , Basic...is used to estimate 79 For a discussion of logit, see Gujarati , Basic Econometrics, pp. 452-475. 67 model coefficients. The following logit

  9. The Impact of Pay on Navy Physician Retention in a Health Care Reform Environment.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1998-03-01

    factors believed to 15 Damodar N. Gujarati , Basic Econometrics (New York: McGaw-Hill, 1995), 554. Kathryn Kocher, Selected SAS Documentation: Manpower...Naval Analysis, February 1989. Gujarati , Damodar N., Basic Econometrics New York: McGaw-Hill, 1995. Halvorson, George C, Strong Medicine. New York...Physicians, (Center for Naval Analysis, June 1989), B-2. 18 Kocher, p 14. 19 Gujarati , 555. 79 Taking the natural log of the above equation

  10. Cognitive Functioning and the Probability of Falls among Seniors in Havana, Cuba

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Trujillo, Antonio J.; Hyder, Adnan A.; Steinhardt, Laura C.

    2011-01-01

    This article explores the connection between cognitive functioning and falls among seniors (greater than or equal to 60 years of age) in Havana, Cuba, after controlling for observable characteristics. Using the SABE (Salud, Bienestar, and Envejecimiento) cross-sectional database, we used an econometric strategy that takes advantage of available…

  11. Methods of Forecasting Manpower Requirements with Special Reference to the Province of Ontario.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mehmet, Ozay

    The most generally accepted approaches of quantitatively forecasting manpower requirements by industries and occupations are described and evaluated. The operational steps of each forecasting technique are spelled out fully and illustrations of their use are made for (1) the econometric method, (2) the productivity method, (3) the trend projection…

  12. Investment in Communications and Transportation: Socio-economic Impacts on Rural Development.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hilewick, Carol Lee; And Others

    Two rural counties served as model areas in a comparison of the size and sequence of socioeconomic changes that investment in communications, as opposed to investment in transportation networks, might stimulate. A series of communications, rail, and highway changes were simulated through the use of an econometric model. An Industrial Communication…

  13. Reducing the Digital Divide through ICT Adoption: Factors, Barriers, and How ICT in Schools Can Help

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tengtrakul, Pitikorn

    2013-01-01

    Through econometric analysis of data from multiple surveys, this study explores factors that affect ICT adoption and evaluates the extent to which ICT in schools affect the ICT adoption of surrounding communities, in order to provide a perspective that can help narrow the gap of digital divide. Understanding factors affecting ICT adoption may…

  14. What Do Cost Functions Tell Us about the Cost of an Adequate Education?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Costrell, Robert; Hanushek, Eric; Loeb, Susanna

    2008-01-01

    Econometric cost functions have begun to appear in education adequacy cases with greater frequency. Cost functions are superficially attractive because they give the impression of objectivity, holding out the promise of scientifically estimating the cost of achieving specified levels of performance from actual data on spending. By contrast, the…

  15. Statistical Cost Estimation in Higher Education: Some Alternatives.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Brinkman, Paul T.; Niwa, Shelley

    Recent developments in econometrics that are relevant to the task of estimating costs in higher education are reviewed. The relative effectiveness of alternative statistical procedures for estimating costs are also tested. Statistical cost estimation involves three basic parts: a model, a data set, and an estimation procedure. Actual data are used…

  16. Potential Impact of Increased Numbers of Physicians upon Physician Behavior, Access to, and Cost of, Medical Care. Executive Summary.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Musgrave, Gerald L.

    A study that forecast the consequences of the projected growth in the number of practicing U.S. physicians during the 1980s and beyond is summarized. Attention was directed to the potential impact of the increasing supply of physicians on physician behavior, the cost of medical services, and access to services. Econometric modeling and analysis of…

  17. Value of Weather Information in Cranberry Marketing Decisions.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Morzuch, Bernard J.; Willis, Cleve E.

    1982-04-01

    Econometric techniques are used to establish a functional relationship between cranberry yields and important precipitation, temperature, and sunshine variables. Crop forecasts are derived from the model and are used to establish posterior probabilities to be used in a Bayesian decision context pertaining to leasing space for the storage of the berries.

  18. Demonstrating and Communicating Research Impact. Preparing NIOSH Programs for External Review

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2009-01-01

    Technometrics, sociometrics, bibliometrics , value- mapping, expert review, and case studies represent both quantitative and qualitative means of assessing...such as bibliometrics , econometrics, and social analysis. However, the value of panels continues to be emphasized, and other methods have been advocated...lists of facili- ties and offices, budget information, bibliometric data, conference materials, biblio- graphies from criterion documents, research

  19. Teaching Students Not to Dismiss the Outermost Observations in Regressions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kasprowicz, Tomasz; Musumeci, Jim

    2015-01-01

    One econometric rule of thumb is that greater dispersion in observations of the independent variable improves estimates of regression coefficients and therefore produces better results, i.e., lower standard errors of the estimates. Nevertheless, students often seem to mistrust precisely the observations that contribute the most to this greater…

  20. Modeling EU electricity market competition using the residual supply index

    SciTech Connect

    Swinand, Gregory; Scully, Derek; Ffoulkes, Stuart; Kessler, Brian

    2010-11-15

    An econometric approach to related hourly Residual Supply Index to price-cost margins in the major EU electricity generation markets suggests that market structure, as measured by the RSI, is a significant explanatory factor for markups, even when scarcity and other explanatory variables are included. (author)

  1. Oh No! I Got the Wrong Sign! What Should I Do?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kennedy, Peter E.

    2005-01-01

    Getting a "wrong" sign in empirical work is a common phenomenon. Remarkably, econometrics textbooks provide very little information to practitioners on how this problem can arise. The author exposits a long list of ways in which a wrong sign can occur and how it might be corrected.

  2. Influences on Labor Market Outcomes of African American College Graduates: A National Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Strayhorn, Terrell L.

    2008-01-01

    Using an expanded econometric model, this study sought to estimate more precisely the net effect of independent variables (i.e., attending an HBCU) on three measures of labor market outcomes for African American college graduates. Findings reveal a statistically significant, albeit moderate, relationship between measures of background, human and…

  3. Analyzing the Cost-Effectiveness of Instruction Expenditures towards High School Completion among Oahu's Public School Districts

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ng, Larson S. W. M.

    2011-01-01

    The following study attempted to ascertain the instructional cost-effectiveness of public high school teachers towards high school completion through a financially based econometric analysis. Essentially, public high school instruction expenditures and completer data were collected from 2000 to 2007 and bivariate interaction analyzed through a…

  4. The Effect of Training on Productivity: The Transfer of On-the-Job Training from the Perspective of Economics

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    De Grip, Andries; Sauermann, Jan

    2013-01-01

    Although the transfer of on-the-job training to the workplace belongs to the realm of educational research, it is also highly related to labour economics. In the economic literature, the transfer of training is based on the theoretical framework of human capital theory and has been extensively analysed empirically in econometric studies that take…

  5. Students Choosing Colleges: Understanding the Matriculation Decision at a Highly Selective Private Institution

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nurnberg, Peter; Schapiro, Morton; Zimmerman, David

    2012-01-01

    This paper provides an econometric analysis of the matriculation decisions made by students accepted to Williams College, one of the nation's most highly selective colleges and universities. Using data for the Williams classes of 2008 through 2012 to estimate a yield model, we find that--conditional on the student applying to and being accepted by…

  6. Class-Size Effects on Adolescents' Mental Health and Well-Being in Swedish Schools

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jakobsson, Niklas; Persson, Mattias; Svensson, Mikael

    2013-01-01

    This paper analyzes whether class size has an effect on the prevalence of mental health problems and well-being among adolescents in Swedish schools. We use cross-sectional data collected in year 2008 covering 2755 Swedish adolescents in ninth grade from 40 schools and 159 classes. We utilize different econometric approaches to address potential…

  7. Students Choosing Colleges: Understanding the Matriculation Decision at a Highly Selective Private Institution. NBER Working Paper No. 15772

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nurnberg, Peter; Schapiro, Morton; Zimmerman, David

    2010-01-01

    The college choice process can be reduced to three questions: (1) Where does a student apply?; (2) Which schools accept the students?; and (3) Which offer of admission does the student accept? This paper addresses question three. Specifically, we offer an econometric analysis of the matriculation decisions made by students accepted to Williams…

  8. The Dynamics of Online User Behavior and IS Policy Implications

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kim, Keehyung

    2016-01-01

    This dissertation, which comprises three independent essays, explores the dynamics of online user behavior and provides IS policy implications across three different applications. The first essay employs an econometric empirical analysis to examine the role of IT interventions on online users' gambling behavior, based on field data collected over…

  9. The Determinants of College Student Retention

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Guerrero, Adam A.

    2010-01-01

    This study attempts to add to the college student dropout literature by examining persistence decisions at private, non-selective university using previously unstudied explanatory variables and advanced econometric methods. Three main contributions are provided. First, proprietary data obtained from a type of university that is underrepresented in…

  10. Comments on Surrogates measures and consistent surrogates (by Tyler VanderWeele)

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2013-03-01

    indirect effect,” “ principled strata,” “proportion-mediated,” and perhaps others? My second question was: If we take the negation of the “surrogate paradox...Angeles, Computer Science Department, CA. Forthcoming, Econometric Theory, special issue on Haavelmo Centennial. Pearl, J. and Bareinboim, E. (2011

  11. The Case of Effort Variables in Student Performance.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Borg, Mary O.; And Others

    1989-01-01

    Tests the existence of a structural shift between above- and below-average students in the econometric models that explain students' grades in principles of economics classes. Identifies a structural shift and estimates separate models for above- and below-average students. Concludes that separate models as well as educational policies are…

  12. Web-based Learning Environments Guided by Principles of Good Teaching Practice.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chizmar, John F.; Walbert, Mark S.

    1999-01-01

    Describes the preparation and execution of a statistics course, an undergraduate econometrics course, and a microeconomic theory course that all utilize Internet technology. Reviews seven principles of teaching practice in order to demonstrate how to enhance the quality of student learning using Web technologies. Includes reactions by Steve Hurd…

  13. Synthetic Indicators of Quality of Life in Europe

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Somarriba, Noelia; Pena, Bernardo

    2009-01-01

    For more than three decades now, sociologists, politicians and economists have used a wide range of statistical and econometric techniques to analyse and measure the quality of life of individuals with the aim of obtaining useful instruments for social, political and economic decision making. The aim of this paper is to analyse the advantages and…

  14. Revisiting the Principle of Relative Constancy: Consumer Mass Media Expenditures in Belgium.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dupagne, Michel; Green, R. Jeffery

    1996-01-01

    Proposes two new econometric models for testing the principle of relative constancy (PRC). Reports on regression and cointegration analyses conducted with Belgian mass media expenditure data from 1953-91. Suggests that alternative mass media expenditure models should be developed because PRC lacks of economic foundation and sound empirical…

  15. Potential Impact of Increased Numbers of Physicians upon Physician Behavior, Access to, and Cost of, Medical Care. Final Report.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Musgrave, Gerald L.

    The potential impact of the increasing supply of physicians on physician behavior, the cost of medical services, and access to services is addressed in detail in this final research report. Econometric modeling and analyses of economic activity within the health sector were undertaken. An eight equation model of the hospital and physician sectors…

  16. Regulatory Burden and Poor Defense Acquisition Program Outcomes

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2014-05-01

    0) – Several variants on same principle – Points the way for future work to refine our understanding of impact of breach run-in and breach...drive program improvements • Econometric modeling lesson is that this is opportunity for better understanding of cause, effect, and explanation of

  17. Interpreting Bivariate Regression Coefficients: Going beyond the Average

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Halcoussis, Dennis; Phillips, G. Michael

    2010-01-01

    Statistics, econometrics, investment analysis, and data analysis classes often review the calculation of several types of averages, including the arithmetic mean, geometric mean, harmonic mean, and various weighted averages. This note shows how each of these can be computed using a basic regression framework. By recognizing when a regression model…

  18. Grade Repetition in Honduran Primary Schools

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Marshall, Jeffery H.

    2003-01-01

    This paper looks at several dimensions of the grade failure issue in Honduras using a unique data set compiled by the UMCE evaluation project in 1998 and 1999. The analytical framework incorporates econometric analysis of standardized tests and teacher pass/fail decisions for roughly 13,000 second and fourth grade students. The results show that…

  19. Learning-Testing Process in Classroom: An Empirical Simulation Model

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Buda, Rodolphe

    2009-01-01

    This paper presents an empirical micro-simulation model of the teaching and the testing process in the classroom (Programs and sample data are available--the actual names of pupils have been hidden). It is a non-econometric micro-simulation model describing informational behaviors of the pupils, based on the observation of the pupils'…

  20. Pedagogy and the PC: Trends in the AIS Curriculum

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Badua, Frank

    2008-01-01

    The author investigated the array of course topics in accounting information systems (AIS), as course syllabi embody. The author (a) used exploratory data analysis to determine the topics that AIS courses most frequently offered and (b) used descriptive statistics and econometric analysis to trace the diversity of course topics through time,…

  1. Gender and Migration Background in Intergenerational Educational Mobility

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Schneebaum, Alyssa; Rumplmaier, Bernhard; Altzinger, Wilfried

    2016-01-01

    We employ 2011 European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions survey data for Austria to perform uni- and multivariate econometric analyses to study the role of gender and migration background (MB) in intergenerational educational mobility. We find that there is more persistence in the educational attainment of girls relative to their…

  2. Estimating School Efficiency: A Comparison of Methods Using Simulated Data.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bifulco, Robert; Bretschneider, Stuart

    2001-01-01

    Uses simulated data to assess the adequacy of two econometric and linear-programming techniques (data-envelopment analysis and corrected ordinary least squares) for measuring performance-based school reform. In complex data sets (simulated to contain measurement error and endogeneity), these methods are inadequate efficiency measures. (Contains 40…

  3. University-Industry Research Collaboration: A Model to Assess University Capability

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Abramo, Giovanni; D'Angelo, Ciriaco Andrea; Di Costa, Flavia

    2011-01-01

    Scholars and policy makers recognize that collaboration between industry and the public research institutions is a necessity for innovation and national economic development. This work presents an econometric model which expresses the university capability for collaboration with industry as a function of size, location and research quality. The…

  4. Impacts of terrain attributes on economics and the environment: Costs of reducing potential nitrogen pollution in wheat production

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The economic cost of achieving desired environmental outcomes from uniform and variable rate fertilizer application technologies depends both on market forces and agronomic properties. Using spatial econometric methods, we analyze the impact of nitrogen fertilizer supply by terrain attribute on the...

  5. Examining the Earnings Trajectories of Community College Students Using a Piecewise Growth Curve Modeling Approach

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jaggars, Shanna Smith; Xu, Di

    2016-01-01

    Policymakers have become increasingly concerned with measuring--and holding colleges accountable for--students' labor market outcomes. In this article we introduce a piecewise growth curve approach to analyzing community college students' labor market outcomes, and we discuss how this approach differs from two popular econometric approaches:…

  6. Measuring Inflation in Public Libraries: A Comparison of Two Approaches, the Input Cost Index and the Cost of Services Index.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chambers, Jay C.; Vergun, Robert

    1999-01-01

    Presents two approaches to measuring the inflation faced by public libraries: (1) an approach based on a fixed market basket of the prices of library inputs; and (2) an approach based on an econometric model of library services and costs that yields a costs of services index. Discusses uses of both models. (SLD)

  7. Gaming via Computer Simulation Techniques for Junior College Economics Education. Final Report.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Thompson, Fred A.

    A study designed to answer the need for more attractive and effective economics education involved the teaching of one junior college economics class by the conventional (lecture) method and an experimental class by computer simulation techniques. Econometric models approximating the "real world" were computer programed to enable the experimental…

  8. Public and Private School Distinction, Regional Development Differences, and Other Factors Influencing the Success of Primary School Students in Turkey

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sulku, Seher Nur; Abdioglu, Zehra

    2015-01-01

    This study investigates the factors influencing the success of students in primary schools in Turkey. TIMSS 2011 data for Turkey, measuring the success of eighth-grade students in the field of mathematics, were used in an econometric analysis, performed using classical linear regression models. Two hundred thirty-nine schools participated in the…

  9. Predisposition Factors of Career and Technical Education Transfer Students: A Hermeneutic Phenomenology Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hioki, Warren Glen

    2009-01-01

    Various econometric, sociological, and combined research models (e.g., Hossler and Gallagher's preeminent Three-Phase Model on College Choice) provide help in understanding high school students in their decision-making stages and college experience. Many studies that utilize these models on college choice strongly substantiate and perpetuate the…

  10. Handbook of the Economics of Education. Volume 3

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hanushek, Eric A., Ed.; Machin, Stephen J., Ed.; Woessmann, Ludger, Ed.

    2011-01-01

    How does education affect economic and social outcomes, and how can it inform public policy? Volume 3 of the Handbooks in the Economics of Education uses newly available high quality data from around the world to address these and other core questions. With the help of new methodological approaches, contributors cover econometric methods and…

  11. ENVIRONMENTAL ECONOMICS FOR WATERSHED RESTORATION

    EPA Science Inventory

    This book overviews non-market valuation, input-output analysis, cost-benefit analysis, and presents case studies from the Mid Atlantic Highland region, with all but the bare minimum econometrics, statistics, and math excluded or relegated to an appendix. It is a non-market valu...

  12. A Diagrammatic Exposition of Regression and Instrumental Variables for the Beginning Student

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Foster, Gigi

    2009-01-01

    Some beginning students of statistics and econometrics have difficulty with traditional algebraic approaches to explaining regression and related techniques. For these students, a simple and intuitive diagrammatic introduction as advocated by Kennedy (2008) may prove a useful framework to support further study. The author presents a series of…

  13. A Research-Based Development Economics Course for Undergraduates

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Singh, Prakarsh; Guo, Hongye; Morales, Alvaro

    2015-01-01

    The authors present details of a research-based course in development economics taught at a private liberal arts college. There were three key elements in this class: teaching of applied econometrics, group presentations reviewing published and working papers in development economics, and using concepts taught in class to write an original…

  14. The Search for Equity in School Finance: Michigan School District Response to a Guaranteed Tax Base.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Park, Rolla Edward; Carroll, Stephen J.

    Part of a three-volume report on the effects of school finance reform, this volume examines the effects of reform on Michigan school districts' budgets from 1971 to 1976. Econometric models were used. Researchers found a very small "price" effect--an elasticity of -.02. The data provide no evidence that state matching grants stimulate…

  15. Teaching Students with Visual Impairments in an Inclusive Educational Setting: A Case from Nepal

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lamichhane, Kamal

    2017-01-01

    Using the data set from teachers and students and utilising both qualitative and quantitative techniques for analysis, I discuss teaching style considerations in Nepal's mainstream schools for students with visual impairments. Results of the econometric analysis show that teachers' years of schooling, teaching experience, and using blackboard were…

  16. Evaluation of variation in nitrate concentration levels in the Raccoon River watershed in Iowa

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The Raccoon River Watershed in Iowa has received considerable attention in recent past due to frequent detections of nitrogen concentrations above the federal drinking water standard. This paper econometrically investigates the determinants of variation of nitrogen concentrations in the Raccoon Rive...

  17. Spatial-Temporal Models of Insect Growth, Diffusion and Derivative Pricing

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Insect derivatives represent an important innovation in specialty crop risk management. An active over-the-counter market in insect derivatives will require a transparent pricing method. The paper develops an econometric model of the spatio-temporal process underlying a particular insect populatio...

  18. The Costs and Benefits of Deferred Giving.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fink, Norman S.; Metzler, Howard C.

    It is argued in this book that while there can be a significant payoff for deferred giving programs, it is important to determine their cost effectiveness. Modern business methods of cost accounting, benefits analysis, and actuarial and econometric forecasting are applied to the Pomona College plan, whose study was supported by Lilly Endowment,…

  19. Effect of fare and travel time on the demand for domestic air transportation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Eriksen, S. E.; Liu, E. W.

    1979-01-01

    An econometric travel demand model was presented. The model was used for analyzing long haul domestic passenger markets in the United States. The results showed the sensitivities of demand to changes in fares and speed reflecting technology through more efficient aircraft designs.

  20. Overskilling Dynamics and Education Pathways

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mavromaras, Kostas; McGuinness, Seamus

    2012-01-01

    This paper uses panel data and econometric methods to estimate the incidence and the dynamic properties of overskilling among employed individuals. The paper begins by asking whether there is extensive overskilling in the labour market, and whether overskilling differs by education pathway. The answer to both questions is yes. The paper continues…

  1. Advance to and Persistence in Graduate School: Identifying the Influential Factors and Major-Based Differences

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Xu, Yonghong Jade

    2014-01-01

    Structured within an expanded econometric theoretical framework, this study uses national data sources to identify the critical factors that influence college graduates' advance to and persistence in graduate education and to compare the systematic differences between students in the STEM and non-STEM majors. The findings indicate that there is a…

  2. Measuring Systematic Long-Term Trajectories of School Effectiveness Improvement

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Valenzuela, Juan Pablo; Bellei, Cristián; Allende, Claudio

    2016-01-01

    The objective of this study was to identify trajectories of school improvement experienced by Chilean elementary schools over the last decade. Using econometric analysis and controlling for potential confounding factors, we created an index of school performance combining outcome indicators focused on different school dimensions, and estimated the…

  3. Career Outcomes of STEM and Non-STEM College Graduates: Persistence in Majored-Field and Influential Factors in Career Choices

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Xu, Yonghong Jade

    2013-01-01

    Using data from a nationally representative, longitudinal survey of college graduates, this study examines student transition from college to their chosen career paths and identifies factors influencing college graduates' choosing an occupation related to ones' undergraduate major. Within the context of expanded econometric framework a wide range…

  4. Taxes in a Labor Supply Model with Joint Wage-Hours Determination.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rosen, Harvey S.

    1976-01-01

    Payroll and progressive income taxes play an enormous role in the American fiscal system. The purpose of this study is to present some econometric evidence on the effects of taxes on married women, a group of growing importance in the American labor force. A testable model of labor supply is developed which permits statistical estimation of a…

  5. Lecture Attendance, Study Time, and Academic Performance: A Panel Data Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Andrietti, Vincenzo; Velasco, Carlos

    2015-01-01

    The authors analyze matched administrative survey data on economics students enrolled in two econometrics courses offered in consecutive terms at a major public university in Spain to assess the impact of lecture attendance and study time on academic performance. Using proxy variables in a cross-sectional regression setting, they find a positive…

  6. Provisioning in Agricultural Communities: Local, Regional and Global Cereal Prices and Local Production on Three Continents

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Brown, Molly E.; Tondel, Fabien; Essam, Timothy; Thorne, Jennifer A.; Mann, Bristol F.; Eilerts, Gary

    2012-01-01

    Monitoring and incorporating diverse market and staple food information into food price indices is critical for food price analyses. Satellite remote sensing data and earth science models have an important role to play in improving humanitarian aid timing, delivery and distribution. Incorporating environmental observations into econometric models will improve food security analysis and understanding of market functioning.

  7. The Critical Infrastructure Portfolio Selection Model

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2008-06-13

    Gregory Ehlers ties together two concepts that are fundamental to enabling a thorough understanding of the Critical Infrastructure Portfolio Selection...work of world-renowned economists, Paul Collier and Anke Hoeffler, and the econometric models that these scholars have developed in an effort to...

  8. Key Management Challenges in Smart Grid

    SciTech Connect

    Sheldon, Frederick T; Duren, Mike

    2012-01-01

    Agenda Awarded in February 2011 Team of industry and research organizations Project Objectives Address difficult issues Complexity Diversity of systems Scale Longevity of solution Participate in standards efforts and working groups Develop innovative key management solutions Modeling and simulation ORNL Cyber Security Econometric Enterprise System Demonstrate effectiveness of solution Demonstrate scalability

  9. The Effects of International Mobility on European Researchers: Comparing Intra-EU and U.S. Mobility

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Veugelers, Reinhilde; Van Bouwel, Linda

    2015-01-01

    Using econometric analysis on survey data from European-born and European-educated researchers who are internationally mobile after their PhD within Europe or to the United States, we find significant positive effects from international mobility on scientific productivity, as well as several other positive career development effects. European…

  10. Conflict and Security Indices: A Summary of Open-Source Data

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2008-09-01

    experts in the fields of corruption, econometrics and statistics that comprise the Index Advisory Committee. The committee makes suggestions for...Health and Primary Education, Higher Education and Training, Good Market Efficiency, Labor Market Efficiency, Financial Market Sophistication...Business Freedom, Trade Freedom, Fiscal Freedom, Government Size, Monetary Freedom, Investment Freedom, Financial Freedom, Property Rights, Freedom from

  11. 78 FR 41161 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; The Options Clearing Corporation; Notice of Filing of Advance...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-07-09

    ... included in the econometric models underlying STANS, time series of proportional changes in implied... underlying STANS, time series of proportional changes in implied volatilities, for a range of tenors and in... used by OCC to calculate daily margin requirements. OCC has proposed at this time to clear only...

  12. Skills for a Low-Carbon Europe: The Role of VET in a Sustainable Energy Scenario. Synthesis Report. Research Paper No 34

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ranieri, Antonio, Ed.

    2013-01-01

    This report provides an analysis of the labour market impacts of EU policy interventions designed to support the transition to a job-rich, low-carbon economy. The approach taken is innovative as it combines quantitative (econometric modelling) and qualitative (case study) methods to investigate the expected impact of sustainable energy policies on…

  13. Revealing Failures in the History of School Finance. NBER Working Paper No. 15491

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lindert, Peter H.

    2009-01-01

    This essay proposes a set of non-econometric tests using data on wage structure, school resource costs, public expenditures, taxes, and rates of return to explain anomalies in which richer political units deliver less education than poorer ones. Both the anomalies of education history, and its less surprising contrasts, fit broad patterns that can…

  14. New Employment Forecasts. Hotel and Catering Industry 1988-1993.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Measurement for Management Decision, Ltd., London (England).

    Econometric forecasting models were used to forecast employment levels in the hotel and catering industry in Great Britain through 1993 under several different forecasting scenarios. The growth in employment in the hotel and catering industry over the next 5 years is likely to be broadly based, both across income levels of domestic consumers,…

  15. Is Private Production of Public Services Cheaper Than Public Production? A Meta-Regression Analysis of Solid Waste and Water Services

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bel, Germa; Fageda, Xavier; Warner, Mildred E.

    2010-01-01

    Privatization of local government services is assumed to deliver cost savings, but empirical evidence for this from around the world is mixed. We conduct a meta-regression analysis of all econometric studies examining privatization of water distribution and solid waste collection services and find no systematic support for lower costs with private…

  16. Recruiting, Retention, and Future Levels of Military Personnel

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2006-10-01

    Dall , and Pat Mackie, An Econometric Analysis of Navy Television Advertising Effectiveness (draft, The Lewin Group and SAG Corporation, 1996...eds., Handbook of Defense Economics, vol. 1 (Amster- dam , The Netherlands: Elsevier Science, 1995), pp. 347-401. Warner, John T., and Curtis J

  17. The Ratio of Public Investment in Education in China

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Liu, Zeyun; Yuan, Liansheng

    2007-01-01

    Based on cross-section data worldwide and time series data in China, the essay is intended to make an analysis of the factors which have impacts on the ratio of public investment in education by using econometric models and then the future ratio may be predicted. Conclusions are as follows. First, the proportion of fiscal revenue to GDP (gross…

  18. Lessons in Reading Reform: Finding What Works. Technical Appendix

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Betts, Julian R.; Zau, Andrew C.; Koedel, Cory

    2010-01-01

    This technical appendix provides more detail on the reading reforms implemented under the Blueprint for Student Success project in the San Diego Unified School District (SDUSD) between 2000 and 2005. It provides details on the dataset, the econometric methods the authors employed, and the results, which are also detailed and discussed in the main…

  19. How Large Are Teacher Effects?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nye, Barbara; Konstantopoulos, Spyros; Hedges, Larry V.

    2004-01-01

    It is widely accepted that teachers differ in their effectiveness, yet the empirical evidence regarding teacher effectiveness is weak. The existing evidence is mainly drawn from econometric studies that use covariates to attempt to control for selection effects that might bias results. We use data from a four-year experiment in which teachers and…

  20. The Relationship of Class Size Effects and Teacher Salary

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Peevely, Gary; Hedges, Larry; Nye, Barbara A.

    2005-01-01

    The effects of class size on academic achievement have been studied for decades. Although the results of small-scale, randomized experiments and large-scale, econometric studies point to positive effects of small classes, some scholars see the evidence as ambiguous. Recent analyses from a 4-year, large-scale, randomized experiment on the effects…

  1. Wage Determinants among Medical Doctors and Nurses in Spain

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Salas-Velasco, Manuel

    2010-01-01

    This paper examines the determination of wage rates for health professionals using three well known, and commonly used, econometric techniques: ordinary least squares, instrumental variables, and Heckman's method. The data come from a graduate survey and the analysis focuses on a regional labor market, due to nationwide information on salaries is…

  2. Disentangling the Circularity in Sen's Capability Approach: An Analysis of the Co-Evolution of Functioning Achievement and Resources

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Binder, Martin; Coad, Alex

    2011-01-01

    There is an ambiguity in Amartya Sen's capability approach as to what constitutes an individual's resources, conversion factors and valuable functionings. What we here call the "circularity problem" points to the fact that all three concepts seem to be mutually endogenous and interdependent. To econometrically account for this…

  3. Predicting the impacts of new technology aircraft on international air transportation demand

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ausrotas, R. A.

    1981-01-01

    International air transportation to and from the United States was analyzed. Long term and short term effects and causes of travel are described. The applicability of econometric methods to forecast passenger travel is discussed. A nomograph is developed which shows the interaction of economic growth, airline yields, and quality of service in producing international traffic.

  4. Model Study for an Economic Data Program on the Conditions of Arts and Cultural Institutions. Final Report.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Deane, Robert T.; And Others

    The development of econometric models and a data base to predict the responsiveness of arts institutions to changes in the economy is reported. The study focused on models for museums, theaters (profit and non-profit), symphony, ballet, opera, and dance. The report details four objectives of the project: to identify useful databases and studies on…

  5. An Analytical Cost Estimation Procedure

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2007-11-02

    Econometrics - Classic and Contemporary by R. E. Berndt, Addison- Wesley,1991. [4] An Introduction to Mathematical Economics - Methods and Applications by G.C...Archibald and R.G. Lipsey , Harper & Row, 1976. 8 Appendix Overview Of Data Storage in PACE by Jim Wilson, Institute for Defense Analyses PACE uses

  6. Duration Models to Analyze Dating Relationship: The Controversial Role of Gift Giving.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Huang, Ming-Hui; Yu, Shihti

    2000-01-01

    Econometric duration models were used to analyze dating relationships of 225 college students. Using gifts to enhance the self, express love, and announce relationships helped ensure the success of relationships. Gifts that were too frequent or rare resulted in self-depreciation and anxiety and harmed relationships. (SK)

  7. The Effects of End-Of-Month Recruiting on Marine Corps Recruit Depot Attrition

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2006-03-01

    Publishing, 2003. Der, Geoff and Everitt, Brian S., A Handbook of Statistical Analyses using SAS, 2nd ed., Chapman and Hall/CRC, 2002. Gujarati ... Damodar N., Basic Econometrics, 4th ed., McGraw- Hill, 2003. Jaisingh, Lloyd R., Statistics for the Utterly Confused, McGraw-Hill, 2000. 62

  8. The Effect of College Selectivity, Grades, and Major on the Performance of Officers in the U.S. Navy.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1998-03-01

    mathematical convenience and availability of computer software. Generally, the logit model is preferred. (see Gujarati , Damodar N., Basic...Preferences, College Major, and the Gender Gap in Earnings," Journal of Human Resources 19:408-28. Gujarati , Damodar N., Basic Econometrics, Third

  9. Altering the Application of the Traditional Systems Development Life Cycle for Air Force Software Programs.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1987-04-01

    York: North Holland, Inc., 1981. 2. Fox, Joseph M. Software and Its Development. Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey: Prentice-Hall, Inc., 1982. A 3. Gujarati ... Damodar . Basic Econometrics. New York: McGraw- Hill Book Company, 1978. J.,. 4. Larr, L., et al. Planning Guide for Computer Programming Development

  10. A Statistical Analysis of the Deterrence Effects of the Military Services’ Drug Testing Policies

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1998-03-01

    Trends in Alcohol, Illicit Drug, and Cigarette Use among U.S. Military Personnel: 1980- 1992. Armed Forces and Society (Summer) . 36. Gujarati ... Damodar N., 1995. Basic Econometrics. 3rd ed. New York: McGraw-Hill. 37. Klienbaum, David G. 1994. Logistic Regression: A Self Learning Text. New

  11. Modeling No-Show Passengers on PACOM Exercise Airlift

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2004-08-01

    Office of the Deputy Under Secretary of Defense for Logistics and Materiel Readiness, May 2003. Gujarati , Damodar N. Basic Econometrics. New York...little as one more data point than variables used ( Gujarati , 1995). For this research, about 10% of the number of data points will be used as the

  12. A Prototypical Model for Estimating High Tech Navy Recruiting Markets

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1991-12-01

    Company, New York, N.Y., 1990. Gujarati , Damodar N., Basic Econometrics, Second Edition, McGraw-Hill Book Company, New York, N.Y., 1988. Jehn, Christopher...Probability, Logit, and Probit Models, New York, New York 1990, p. 73. 37 Gujarati , D., ibid, p. 500. 31 V. MODELS ESTIMATION A. MODEL I ESTIMATION OF

  13. From Data to Bonuses: A Case Study of the Issues Related to Awarding Teachers Pay on the Basis of Their Students' Progress. Working Paper 2008-14

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McCaffrey, Daniel F.; Han, Bing; Lockwood, J. R.

    2008-01-01

    A key component to the new wave of performance-based pay initiatives is the use of student achievement data to evaluate teacher performance. As greater amounts of student achievement data are being collected, researchers have been developing and applying innovative statistical and econometric models to longitudinal data to develop measures of an…

  14. The Sources and Uses of Annual Giving at Selective Private Research Universities and Liberal Arts Colleges.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ehrenberg. R. G.; Smith, C. L.

    2003-01-01

    Econometric analysis uses data from a panel of selected private research universities and liberal-arts colleges that span a 31-year period to provide explanations for differences across institutions in the sources and uses of giving. Finds, for example, that richer institutions devote a larger share of their annual giving to further building their…

  15. TRACKING THE EMISSION OF CARBON DIOXIDE BY NATION, SECTOR, AND FUEL TYPE: A TRACE GAS ACCOUNTING SYSTEM (TGAS)

    EPA Science Inventory

    The paper describes a new way to estimate an efficient econometric model of global emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) by nation, sector, and fuel type. Equations for fuel intensity are estimated for coal, oil, natural gas, electricity, and heat for six sectors: agricultural, indus...

  16. Be as Careful of the Company You Keep as of the Books You Read: Peer Effects in Education and on the Labor Market. NBER Working Paper No. 14948

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    DeGiorgi, Giacomo; Pellizzari, Michele; Redaelli, Silvia

    2009-01-01

    In this paper we investigate whether peers' behavior influences the choice of college major, thus contributing to the mismatch of skills in the labor market. Using a newly constructed dataset, we are able to identify the endogenous effect of peers on such decisions through a novel identification strategy that solves the common econometric problems…

  17. Estimating the Relation between Health and Education: What Do We Know and What Do We Need to Know?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Eide, Eric R.; Showalter, Mark H.

    2011-01-01

    The empirical link between education and health is firmly established. Numerous studies document that higher levels of education are positively associated with longer life and better health throughout the lifespan. But measuring the causal links between education and health is a more challenging task. Aside from the typical econometric concerns…

  18. Dreams Deferred? The Relationship between Early and Later Postsecondary Educational Aspirations among Racial/Ethnic Groups

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cooper, Michelle Asha

    2009-01-01

    This study uses data from the Educational Longitudinal Study of 2002 to test a conceptual model that integrates aspects of sociological and econometric frameworks into a traditional status attainment model for educational aspirations. Using descriptive and logistic analyses, this study advanced understanding of the patterns and stability of…

  19. Teaching Statistics in an Activity Encouraging Format

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Knypstra, Sytse

    2009-01-01

    In a statistics course for bachelor students in econometrics a new format was adopted in which students were encouraged to study more actively and in which cooperative learning and peer teaching was implemented. Students had to work in groups of two or three students where each group had to perform certain tasks. One of these tasks was: explaining…

  20. The Well-Being of Children Born to Teen Mothers: Multiple Approaches to Assessing the Causal Links. JCPR Working Paper.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Levine, Judith A.; Pollack, Harold

    This study used linked maternal-child data from the 1997-1998 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth to explore the wellbeing of children born to teenage mothers. Two econometric techniques explored the causal impact of early childbearing on subsequent child and adolescent outcomes. First, a fixed-effect, cousin-comparison analysis controlled for…

  1. Education Returns of Wage Earners and Self-Employed Workers: Response

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Garcia-Mainar, Inmaculada; Montuenga-Gomez, Victor M.

    2009-01-01

    This is a response to [Jordahl, H., Poutvaara, P., & Tuomala, J. (2009). Comment on education returns of wage earners and self-employed workers. "Economics of Education Review" 28]. We acknowledge that econometrics have improved since the time our original paper was written, so that the choice of accurate instruments is now more…

  2. A Tool To Assess Journal Price Discrimination.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Meyer, Richard W.

    2001-01-01

    The author designed an experiment to determine whether periodical price inflation might be dampened by electronic scholarship. This article discusses results of an econometric analysis of prices for 859 periodical titles for three consecutive years, and concludes with a description of an analytical tool that may be used to assess journal prices.…

  3. Vietnam: The Political Economy of Education in a "Socialist" Periphery

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    London, Jonathan D.

    2006-01-01

    In this article I examine historic changes in the goals, conduct and outcomes of education policies in Vietnam from the 1940s to the present, under the Communist Party of Vietnam. Recent studies of Vietnam's education system centre on econometric and demographic analysis of education data dating back to the early 1990s, when Vietnam began an…

  4. Determining How Tertiary Education and Human Capital Formation Influenced Economic Expansion in Israel, Japan, and Norway from 2000-2010

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kalkbrenner, Erin Lee

    2014-01-01

    Researchers have calculated the relationship between human capital development and economic output by various means of econometric modeling and by use of numerous indicators under the context of an assortment of human capital theory. This study was conducted to identify new interpretations of the expansion of human capital in the form of tertiary…

  5. Optimizing distance-based methods for large data sets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Scholl, Tobias; Brenner, Thomas

    2015-10-01

    Distance-based methods for measuring spatial concentration of industries have received an increasing popularity in the spatial econometrics community. However, a limiting factor for using these methods is their computational complexity since both their memory requirements and running times are in {{O}}(n^2). In this paper, we present an algorithm with constant memory requirements and shorter running time, enabling distance-based methods to deal with large data sets. We discuss three recent distance-based methods in spatial econometrics: the D&O-Index by Duranton and Overman (Rev Econ Stud 72(4):1077-1106, 2005), the M-function by Marcon and Puech (J Econ Geogr 10(5):745-762, 2010) and the Cluster-Index by Scholl and Brenner (Reg Stud (ahead-of-print):1-15, 2014). Finally, we present an alternative calculation for the latter index that allows the use of data sets with millions of firms.

  6. Productive trends in India's energy intensive industries

    SciTech Connect

    Roy, J.; Sathaye, J.; Sanstad, A.; Mongia, P.; Schumacher, K.

    1999-07-01

    This paper reports on an analysis of productivity growth and input trends in six energy intensive sectors of the Indian economy, using growth accounting and econometric methods. The econometric work estimates rates and factor price biases of technological change using a translog production model with an explicit relationship defined for technological change. Estimates of own-price responses indicate that raising energy prices would be an effective carbon abatement policy for India. At the same time, the authors results suggest that, as with previous findings on the US economy, such policies in India could have negative long run effects on productivity in these sectors. Inter-input substitution possibilities are relatively weak, so that such policies might have negative short and medium term effects on sectoral growth. The authors study provides information relevant for the analysis of costs and benefits of carbon abatement policies applied to India and thus contributes to the emerging body of modeling and analysis of global climate policy.

  7. Systems GMM estimates of the health care spending and GDP relationship: a note.

    PubMed

    Kumar, Saten

    2013-06-01

    This paper utilizes the systems generalized method of moments (GMM) [Arellano and Bover (1995) J Econometrics 68:29-51; Blundell and Bond (1998) J Econometrics 87:115-143], and panel Granger causality [Hurlin and Venet (2001) Granger Causality tests in panel data models with fixed coefficients. Mime'o, University Paris IX], to investigate the health care spending and gross domestic product (GDP) relationship for organisation for economic co-operation and development countries over the period 1960-2007. The system GMM estimates confirm that the contribution of real GDP to health spending is significant and positive. The panel Granger causality tests imply that a bi-directional causality exists between health spending and GDP. To this end, policies aimed at raising health spending will eventually improve the well-being of the population in the long run.

  8. Airfreight forecasting methodology and results

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1978-01-01

    A series of econometric behavioral equations was developed to explain and forecast the evolution of airfreight traffic demand for the total U.S. domestic airfreight system, the total U.S. international airfreight system, and the total scheduled international cargo traffic carried by the top 44 foreign airlines. The basic explanatory variables used in these macromodels were the real gross national products of the countries involved and a measure of relative transportation costs. The results of the econometric analysis reveal that the models explain more than 99 percent of the historical evolution of freight traffic. The long term traffic forecasts generated with these models are based on scenarios of the likely economic outlook in the United States and 31 major foreign countries.

  9. Panel data analysis of cardiotocograph (CTG) data.

    PubMed

    Horio, Hiroyuki; Kikuchi, Hitomi; Ikeda, Tomoaki

    2013-01-01

    Panel data analysis is a statistical method, widely used in econometrics, which deals with two-dimensional panel data collected over time and over individuals. Cardiotocograph (CTG) which monitors fetal heart rate (FHR) using Doppler ultrasound and uterine contraction by strain gage is commonly used in intrapartum treatment of pregnant women. Although the relationship between FHR waveform pattern and the outcome such as umbilical blood gas data at delivery has long been analyzed, there exists no accumulated FHR patterns from large number of cases. As time-series economic fluctuations in econometrics such as consumption trend has been studied using panel data which consists of time-series and cross-sectional data, we tried to apply this method to CTG data. The panel data composed of a symbolized segment of FHR pattern can be easily handled, and a perinatologist can get the whole FHR pattern view from the microscopic level of time-series FHR data.

  10. Economics of technological change - A joint model for the aircraft and airline industries

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kneafsey, J. T.; Taneja, N. K.

    1981-01-01

    The principal focus of this econometric model is on the process of technological change in the U.S. aircraft manufacturing and airline industries. The problem of predicting the rate of introduction of current technology aircraft into an airline's fleet during the period of research, development, and construction for new technology aircraft arises in planning aeronautical research investments. The approach in this model is a statistical one. It attempts to identify major factors that influence transport aircraft manufacturers and airlines, and to correlate them with the patterns of delivery of new aircraft to the domestic trunk carriers. The functional form of the model has been derived from several earlier econometric models on the economics of innovation, acquisition, and technological change.

  11. The impact of corruption on the sustainable development of human capital

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Absalyamova, Svetlana; Absalyamov, Timur; Khusnullova, Asiya; Mukhametgalieva, Chulpan

    2016-08-01

    The article explains the use of the human capital sustainable development index (HCSDI) to assess the quality of the reproduction of human capital. The paper provides the algorithm for calculating HCSDI and its components. Authors estimated cross-country differences of HCSDI and developed econometric model of the impact of corruption on HCSDI. The use of this model has allowed to reveal the mechanism and assess the impact of corruption on HCSDI and its components. The results of econometric analysis revealed a negative multiplier effect: an increase in the corruption of the socio-economic system of the state by 1% caused HCSDI reduce by more than 1%. The results and conclusions may be proxy-assessments of the socio-economic consequences of violations of the stability of reproduction of human capital in the conditions of the growth of corruption in the country

  12. The economic value of remote sensing of earth resources from space: An ERTS overview and the value of continuity of service. Volume 3: Intensive use of living resources, agriculture. Part 3: The integrated impact of improved (ERS) information on US agricultural commodities

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Seidel, A. D.

    1974-01-01

    The economic value of information produced by an assumed operational version of an earth resources survey satellite of the ERTS class is assessed. The theoretical capability of an ERTS system to provide improved agricultural forecasts is analyzed and this analysis is used as a reasonable input to the econometric methods derived by ECON. An econometric investigation into the markets for agricultural commodities is summarized. An overview of the effort including the objectives, scopes, and architecture of the analysis, and the estimation strategy employed is presented. The results and conclusions focus on the economic importance of improved crop forecasts, U.S. exports, and government policy operations. Several promising avenues of further investigation are suggested.

  13. Contextual Awareness for Robust Robot Autonomy

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2013-12-30

    during planning time. This tradeoff was also a goal of work done by ( Roth , Simmons, and Veloso 2005) in limiting communication for distributed agents...Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society 122–136. Roth , M.; Simmons, R.; and Veloso, M. 2005. Reasoning about joint beliefs for execution-time...Preliminary results,” in Proceedings of the IJCAI 2005 Workshop on Reasoning with Uncertainty in Robotics (RUR 05), Edinburgh, Scotland , July 2005. [6] D

  14. Recruiters, Advertising, and Navy Enlistments.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1980-03-01

    Population’s Awareness and Advertising Previous studies on advertising have focused on measuring its effects in product markets : the consensus is that...1 June 1973. 4. Clarke, D.G., "Econometric Measurement of the Duration of Advertising Effect on Sales," Journal of Marketing Research, Vol. III...RECRUITERS, ADVERTISING , AND NAVY ENLISTMENTS. CU) MAR So L GOLDBERG UNCLASSIFIED CNA-PP-275 N ROFESSIONAL PAPE 75March 1980 6,) . ..... - R

  15. JPRS Report, East Europe.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2007-11-02

    inflation is higher than 50 percent per month. Here, it is no longer possible to issue econometric forecasts, since they are more a matter of geometry...structure: Our peasant must make a living trom 3 hect- ares and 3 cows , while in Europe the peasant gets his living from 60 hectares and 30 cows ...federal party plenum on interethnic relations was also very indicative. Kostic- When views on certain matters are identical, one should not assume

  16. Long-range correlations in time series generated by time-fractional diffusion: A numerical study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barbieri, Davide; Vivoli, Alessandro

    2005-09-01

    Time series models showing power law tails in autocorrelation functions are common in econometrics. A special non-Markovian model for such kind of time series is provided by the random walk introduced by Gorenflo et al. as a discretization of time fractional diffusion. The time series so obtained are analyzed here from a numerical point of view in terms of autocorrelations and covariance matrices.

  17. Market and economic analysis of residential photovoltaic systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tabors, R. D.

    1982-06-01

    The overall structure of a project to evaluate the U.S. residential photovoltaic market or markets is reviewed and experience obtained before cuts in federal funding for the project were reduced is summarized. Topics covered include residential worth analysis, (including retrofit applications); evaluation of presently available regional, econometric models which could be used to project housing stocks; and the analysis of retrofit potential for residential photovoltaic power systems given available roof area.

  18. Uranium price forecasting methods

    SciTech Connect

    Fuller, D.M.

    1994-03-01

    This article reviews a number of forecasting methods that have been applied to uranium prices and compares their relative strengths and weaknesses. The methods reviewed are: (1) judgemental methods, (2) technical analysis, (3) time-series methods, (4) fundamental analysis, and (5) econometric methods. Historically, none of these methods has performed very well, but a well-thought-out model is still useful as a basis from which to adjust to new circumstances and try again.

  19. How many kilowatts are in a negawatt? Verifying ex post estimates of utility conservation impacts at the regional level

    SciTech Connect

    Parfomak, P.W.; Lave, L.B.

    1996-12-31

    Restructuring of utilities raises questions about the future of conservation programs. One of the greatest obstacles has been the persistent uncertainity among utility planners regarding true resource effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of conservation relative to conventional generation. The authors use econometric techniques to examine the aggregate commercial and industrial conservation impacts reported. The paper shows that utility conservation programs have been effective in reducing electric loads and that utilities have reported accurately. 44 refs., 3 tabs.

  20. Maximum entropy and Bayesian methods. Proceedings.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grandy, W. T., Jr.; Schick, L. H.

    This volume contains a selection of papers presented at the Tenth Annual Workshop on Maximum Entropy and Bayesian Methods. The thirty-six papers included cover a wide range of applications in areas such as economics and econometrics, astronomy and astrophysics, general physics, complex systems, image reconstruction, and probability and mathematics. Together they give an excellent state-of-the-art overview of fundamental methods of data analysis.

  1. Forest management and economics

    SciTech Connect

    Buongiorno, J.; Gilless, J.K.

    1987-01-01

    This volume provides a survey of quantitative methods, guiding the reader through formulation and analysis of models that address forest management problems. The authors use simple mathematics, graphics, and short computer programs to explain each method. Emphasizing applications, they discuss linear, integer, dynamic, and goal programming; simulation; network modeling; and econometrics, as these relate to problems of determining economic harvest schedules in even-aged and uneven-aged forests, the evaluation of forest policies, multiple-objective decision making, and more.

  2. Dynamics of Markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McCauley, Joseph L.

    2009-09-01

    Preface; 1. Econophysics: why and what; 2. Neo-classical economic theory; 3. Probability and stochastic processes; 4. Introduction to financial economics; 5. Introduction to portfolio selection theory; 6. Scaling, pair correlations, and conditional densities; 7. Statistical ensembles: deducing dynamics from time series; 8. Martingale option pricing; 9. FX market globalization: evolution of the dollar to worldwide reserve currency; 10. Macroeconomics and econometrics: regression models vs. empirically based modeling; 11. Complexity; Index.

  3. A Better Basis for Ship Acquisition Decisions

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2011-04-30

    Systems Command • Army Contracting Command, U.S. Army Materiel Command • Program Manager, Airborne, Maritime and Fixed Station Joint Tactical Radio...University and a PhD in Mathematics from Michigan State University. He has held postdoctoral positions in Econometrics and Operations Research and...of data and detail increases as engineers work with smaller areas of the ship. Full Component Breakdown, Maintenance Procedures Distributive

  4. The Effect of Aviation Selection Test Battery Waivers on Marine Student-Aviator Attrition

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2009-03-01

    Pensacola, Florida areas . IFS is fully-funded by the Department of the Navy (DoN) and “provides students with a maximum of 25 hours of civilian aviation...Systems Marine Science Aviation Technology Maritime Ops and Technology 70 NON-TECHNICAL Accounting Forestry National Security...28 September 2008, from Defense Technical Information Center Online database. Stock, J.H. & Watson, M.W. (2003). Introduction to Econometrics

  5. The Theory and Feasibility of Implementing an Economic Input/Output Analysis of the Department of Defense to Support Acquisition Decision Analysis and Cost Estimation

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2011-04-30

    Army Contracting Command, U.S. Army Materiel Command • Program Manager, Airborne, Maritime and Fixed Station Joint Tactical Radio System ^Åèìáëáíáçå...and governments in Iraq and Afghanistan. Additionally, Mr. Patterson supported the Deputy Secretary in the areas of military commissions for detainees...postdoctoral positions in Econometrics and Operations Research and in National Security Studies at Washington State University and Harvard

  6. Costing Complex Products, Operations, and Support

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2011-04-30

    Airborne, Maritime and Fixed Station Joint Tactical Radio System = ==================^Åèìáëáíáçå=oÉëÉ~êÅÜW=`ob^qfkd=pvkbodv=clo=fkclojba=`e^kdb=====- ii...positions in Econometrics and Operations Research and in National Security Studies at Washington State University and Harvard University. He is active...research at the present time and to guide its future development. Background The costing of major defense projects is an area of perennial difficulty

  7. An Exploratory Analysis of Economic Factors in the Navy Total Force Strength Model (NTFSM)

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2015-12-01

    the model incorporates (in the personnel calculations) econometric effects to Losses by Expiration of Active Obligated Service , Attrition, and Length...APPENDIX D. SUMMARIES OF REMANING META- MODELS Retirement Losses Prior Service Gains Summary of Fit RSquare RSquare Adj Root Mean Square...ANALYSIS OF ECONOMIC FACTORS IN THE NAVY TOTAL FORCE STRENGTH MODEL (NTFSM) by William P. DeSousa December 2015 Thesis Advisor: Thomas W

  8. Structural Uncertainties in Numerical Induction Models

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2006-07-01

    Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping MAUT: Multi-Attribute Utility Theory MCDM: Multi-Criteria Decision Making MOE: Measure of Effectiveness OWA...these decision theoretics can be found in texts such as [1,31,33,40,42,45,62,87,94,100]. 6.4.1 Multi-Attribute Utility Theory (MAUT) This is a...Neumann and Morganstern [89] axiomatised expected utility theory and thus laid the foundations of MAUT, as applied to econometrics. Accordingly, the

  9. Time Management: Addressing and Assessing Classroom Participation Problems

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2015-01-01

    Time Management Addressing and Assessing Classroom Participation Problems Cary A. Balser Abstract While research shows that technology in...the classroom has costs, in econometrics (as in other technical courses) computer use is very nearly a necessary condition. Therefore, I used a...undergraduate institution with a clear focus on STEM, technology in the classroom is very nearly necessitated by the content in many technical courses

  10. On Cartwright's models for EPR

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cachro, Jacek; Placek, Tomasz

    We assess Cartwright's models for probabilistic causality and, in particular, her models for EPR-like experiments of quantum mechanics. Our first objection is that, contrary to econometric linear models, her quasi-linear models do not allow for the unique estimation of parameters. We next argue that although, as Cartwright proves, Reichenbach's screening-off condition has only limited validity, her generalized condition is not empirically applicable. Finally, we show that her models for the EPR are mathematically incorrect and physically implausible.

  11. An integrated model of human-wildlife interdependence

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    John, Kun H.; Walsh, Richard G.; Johnson, R. L.

    1994-01-01

    This paper attempts to integrate wildlife-related ecologic and economic variables into an econometric model. The model reveals empirical evidence of the presumed interdependence of human-wildlife and the holistic nature of humanity's relationship to the ecosystem. Human use of biologic resources varies not only with income, education, and population, but also with sustainability of humankind's action relative to the quality and quantity of the supporting ecological base.

  12. The Impact of Economic Factors and Acquisition Reforms on the Cost of Defense Weapon Systems

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2006-03-01

    detailed description of the econometric analysis that is employed in the next chapter. Description of the Models In total, four models are...variable is assumed to have lag 1 autocorrelation so an AR 1 disturbance term is added to the model ( Stata , 2005:311). Consequently, the error term is...stationary process” ( Stata , 2005). According to Makridakis et al. in their Forecasting Methods and Applications text, the four assumptions of multiple linear

  13. The Costs of Aging Aircraft: Insights From Commercial Aviation

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2005-01-01

    detail for two reasons. First, some in the industry believe that airlines do not keep financial records at this level of detail. The airlines do...www.boeing.com/companyoffices/ financial /finreports/annual/ 03annualreport/f_ncfs_08.html. Boeing Corporation, The Basics of Maintenance Cost Forecasting...www.afa.org/magazine/june1996/0696watch.asp. United Airlines, SEC Reports, 1976-2003. Wooldridge, Jeffrey M., Introductory Econometrics : A Modern

  14. An Analysis of the Effects of Military Service on Retirees’ Civilian Earnings

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1993-12-01

    AD-A277 292 NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL Monterey, California STATAES 1 Ae•p "AR ,, ,2 8 1994 ’ 94-09400 E.. THESIS An Analysis of the Effects of...negative effect on earnings since divorced or single individuals generally do not have grcat family financial responsibilities that require a more stable...evaluation and econometrics . - 3. Censored Regression Models The Censored Regression Model is a simple technique for handling selectivity bias. The

  15. Cost Growth in Weapons Systems: Re-examining Rubber Baselines and Economic Factors

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2007-03-01

    committee members for their support in this endeavor. They allowed me to test my econometric limits without performing the analysis for me. I...Therefore, the financial costs of a defense contract cost overrun are shared by all. Cost overruns are the result of two possible root causes. The first...improvements in financial fundamentals to the change in industry concentration. The increased industry concentration found by Davis leads to less

  16. Sources and Nature of Cost Analysis Data Base Reference Manual.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1983-07-01

    various MateWuttcaL, Sj ~Lttt aeconomiic, and econometric processes ildn We iioed arithmentic ,rflo iiarmon ic means, construction tE!chniqneS for...required by this Command and recurring external reports required of AVRADCON by other Army elements and Federal agencies. 3. Statas . Operational...appropriation or financial plan. * 6. APPROPRIATION. A fund authorization set up by an Act of Congress which permits a department or other governmental

  17. Improved (ERTS) information and its impact on U.S. markets for agricultural commodities: A quantitiative economic investigation of production, distribution and net export effects

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1974-01-01

    An econometric investigation into the markets for agricultural commodities is summarized. An overview of the effort including the objectives, scope, and architecture of the analysis and the estimation strategy employed is presented. The major empirical results and policy conclusions are set forth. These results and conclusions focus on the economic importance of improved crop forecasts, U.S. exports, and government policy operations. A number of promising avenues of further investigation are suggested.

  18. Market penetration of new energy technologies

    SciTech Connect

    Packey, D.J.

    1993-02-01

    This report examines the characteristics, advantages, disadvantages, and, for some, the mathematical formulas of forecasting methods that can be used to forecast the market penetration of renewable energy technologies. Among the methods studied are subjective estimation, market surveys, historical analogy models, cost models, diffusion models, time-series models, and econometric models. Some of these forecasting methods are more effective than others at different developmental stages of new technologies.

  19. Game-Theoretic Models of Conflict and Social Interactions

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2014-05-17

    been to provide qualitative analysis that give insights into the sources of political and social conflict and quantitative or computational methods ...the Econometric Society in 2011, and keynote addresses at the WINE conference, the Public Economic Theory Conference, and the State of the Art lecture...project, we developed a model for the analysis of spread of misinformation in societies. Our analysis is motivated by the widespread differences in

  20. Oscillatory dynamics of investment and capacity utilization

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Greenblatt, R. E.

    2017-01-01

    Capitalist economic systems display a wide variety of oscillatory phenomena whose underlying causes are often not well understood. In this paper, I consider a very simple model of the reciprocal interaction between investment, capacity utilization, and their time derivatives. The model, which gives rise periodic oscillations, predicts qualitatively the phase relations between these variables. These predictions are observed to be consistent in a statistical sense with econometric data from the US economy.

  1. Career Decision-Making and the Military Family: Toward a Comprehensive Model

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1990-03-01

    school dropout , high school graduation, college attendance), demographic and family transitions (marriage. childbearing, divorce), and the demand for...goods (purchasing a house or other good). To take one recent example, Manski and Wise (1983) have transformed the study of college -going behavior by the...Qualitative Variables in Econometrics. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. P anski, Charles, and David Wise. 1983. College Choice in America. Cambridge, MA

  2. Application of an Entropic Approach to Assessing Systems Integration

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2012-03-01

    two econometrical measures of information efficiency – Shannon entropy and Hurst exponent . Shannon entropy (which is explained in Chapter III) can be...applied to evaluate long-term correlation of time series, while Hurst exponent can be applied to classify the time series in accordance to existence...of trend. Hurst exponent is the statistical measure of time series long-range dependence, and its value falls in the interval [0, 1] – a value in

  3. Extraterrestrial materials processing and construction. [space industrialization

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Criswell, D. R.; Waldron, R. D.; Mckenzie, J. D.

    1980-01-01

    Three different chemical processing schemes were identified for separating lunar soils into the major oxides and elements. Feedstock production for space industry; an HF acid leach process; electrorefining processes for lunar free metal and metal derived from chemical processing of lunar soils; production and use of silanes and spectrally selective materials; glass, ceramics, and electrochemistry workshops; and an econometric model of bootstrapping space industry are discussed.

  4. Quantifying the benefits to the national economy from secondary applications of NASA technology, executive summary

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1976-01-01

    The feasibility of systematically quantifying the economic benefits of secondary applications of NASA related R and D was investigated. Based upon the tools of economic theory and econometric analysis, a set of empirical methods was developed and selected applications were made to demonstrate their workability. Analyses of the technological developments related to integrated circuits, cryogenic insulation, gas turbines, and computer programs for structural analysis indicated substantial secondary benefits accruing from NASA's R and D in these areas.

  5. Quantifying the benefits to the national economy from secondary applications of NASA technology

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1976-01-01

    The feasibility of systematically quantifying the economic benefits of secondary applications of NASA related R and D is investigated. Based upon the tools of economic theory and econometric analysis, it develops a set of empirical methods and makes selected applications to demonstrate their workability. Analyses of the technological developments related to integrated circuits, cryogenic insulation, gas turbines, and computer programs for structural analysis indicated substantial secondary benefits accruing from NASA's R and D in these areas.

  6. Demand Forecasting and Revenue Requirements, with Implications for Consideration in British Columbia,

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1983-05-01

    Econometric Study of Electricity Demand by Manufacturing Industries," NUREG /CR-11358, Oak Ridge, Tennessee: Energy Division, Oak Ridge National...Load for States and Utility Service Areas," NUREG /CR-2692, ORNL/TM- 7947, Oak Ridge, Tennessee: Energy Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, May...1982. Just, Richard E. and Chang, Hui S., "A Varying Elasticity Model of Electricity Demand with Given Appliance Saturation," NUREG /CR- 1956, ORNL/ NUREG

  7. Measuring persistence in time series of temperature anomalies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Triacca, Umberto; Pasini, Antonello; Attanasio, Alessandro

    2014-11-01

    Studies on persistence are important for the clarification of statistical properties of the analyzed time series and for understanding the dynamics of the systems which create these series. In climatology, the analysis of the autocorrelation function has been the main tool to investigate the persistence of a time series. In this paper, we propose to use a more sophisticated econometric instrument. Using this tool, we obtain an estimate of the persistence in global land and ocean and hemispheric temperature time series.

  8. The Effects of Resource Intermittency on Electricity System Emissions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sechrist, B.; Jacobson, M. Z.

    2015-12-01

    Since society subsidizes the production of renewable electricity in order to decrease emissions from the electric power system, it is important to quantify the environmental benefits of renewables. We use the intermittency characteristics of renewable resources to assess the impact of renewable generation on the emissions of carbon dioxide and other air pollutants. Previous studies have investigated the impact of wind or solar generation on emissions; rather than focusing on a particular technology, we separate the intermittent resource into its components - specifically variability, predictability, and timing - and isolate the effect of each component. For the Texas electricity grid, we use the observed outputs of generating units to econometrically estimate the effect of each intermittency characteristic on CO2, SO2, and NOx emissions. We then use the econometric results to evaluate and compare the expected emissions implications of adding different resources to the system. While the econometric estimates are derived from the wind currently online in Texas, the decomposition of the intermittency makes the results technology agnostic and allows for a comparison between prospective resources of different types. Preliminary results will be presented.

  9. Ratio-based estimators for a change point in persistence.

    PubMed

    Halunga, Andreea G; Osborn, Denise R

    2012-11-01

    We study estimation of the date of change in persistence, from [Formula: see text] to [Formula: see text] or vice versa. Contrary to statements in the original papers, our analytical results establish that the ratio-based break point estimators of Kim [Kim, J.Y., 2000. Detection of change in persistence of a linear time series. Journal of Econometrics 95, 97-116], Kim et al. [Kim, J.Y., Belaire-Franch, J., Badillo Amador, R., 2002. Corringendum to "Detection of change in persistence of a linear time series". Journal of Econometrics 109, 389-392] and Busetti and Taylor [Busetti, F., Taylor, A.M.R., 2004. Tests of stationarity against a change in persistence. Journal of Econometrics 123, 33-66] are inconsistent when a mean (or other deterministic component) is estimated for the process. In such cases, the estimators converge to random variables with upper bound given by the true break date when persistence changes from [Formula: see text] to [Formula: see text]. A Monte Carlo study confirms the large sample downward bias and also finds substantial biases in moderate sized samples, partly due to properties at the end points of the search interval.

  10. Municipal water consumption forecast accuracy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fullerton, Thomas M.; Molina, Angel L.

    2010-06-01

    Municipal water consumption planning is an active area of research because of infrastructure construction and maintenance costs, supply constraints, and water quality assurance. In spite of that, relatively few water forecast accuracy assessments have been completed to date, although some internal documentation may exist as part of the proprietary "grey literature." This study utilizes a data set of previously published municipal consumption forecasts to partially fill that gap in the empirical water economics literature. Previously published municipal water econometric forecasts for three public utilities are examined for predictive accuracy against two random walk benchmarks commonly used in regional analyses. Descriptive metrics used to quantify forecast accuracy include root-mean-square error and Theil inequality statistics. Formal statistical assessments are completed using four-pronged error differential regression F tests. Similar to studies for other metropolitan econometric forecasts in areas with similar demographic and labor market characteristics, model predictive performances for the municipal water aggregates in this effort are mixed for each of the municipalities included in the sample. Given the competitiveness of the benchmarks, analysts should employ care when utilizing econometric forecasts of municipal water consumption for planning purposes, comparing them to recent historical observations and trends to insure reliability. Comparative results using data from other markets, including regions facing differing labor and demographic conditions, would also be helpful.

  11. India's iron and steel industry: Productivity, energy efficiency and carbon emissions

    SciTech Connect

    Schumacher, Katja; Sathaye, Jayant

    1998-10-01

    Historical estimates of productivity growth in India's iron and steel sector vary from indicating an improvement to a decline in the sector's productivity. The variance may be traced to the time period of study, source of data for analysis, and type of indices and econometric specifications used for reporting productivity growth. The authors derive both growth accounting and econometric estimates of productivity growth for this sector. Their results show that over the observed period from 1973--74 to 1993--94 productivity declined by 1.71{percent} as indicated by the Translog index. Calculations of the Kendrick and Solow indices support this finding. Using a translog specification the econometric analysis reveals that technical progress in India's iron and steel sector has been biased towards the use of energy and material, while it has been capital and labor saving. The decline in productivity was caused largely by the protective policy regarding price and distribution of iron and steel as well as by large inefficiencies in public sector integrated steel plants. Will these trends continue into the future, particularly where energy use is concerned? Most likely they will not. The authors examine the current changes in structure and energy efficiency undergoing in the sector. Their analysis shows that with the liberalization of the iron and steel sector, the industry is rapidly moving towards world-best technology, which will result in fewer carbon emissions and more efficient energy use in existing and future plants.

  12. India's pulp and paper industry: Productivity and energy efficiency

    SciTech Connect

    Schumacher, Katja

    1999-07-01

    Historical estimates of productivity growth in India's pulp and paper sector vary from indicating an improvement to a decline in the sector's productivity. The variance may be traced to the time period of study, source of data for analysis, and type of indices and econometric specifications used for reporting productivity growth. The authors derive both statistical and econometric estimates of productivity growth for this sector. Their results show that productivity declined over the observed period from 1973-74 to 1993-94 by 1.1% p.a. Using a translog specification the econometric analysis reveals that technical progress in India's pulp and paper sector has been biased towards the use of energy and material, while it has been capital and labor saving. The decline in productivity was caused largely by the protection afforded by high tariffs on imported paper products and other policies, which allowed inefficient, small plants to enter the market and flourish. Will these trends continue into the future, particularly where energy use is concerned? The authors examine the current changes in structure and energy efficiency undergoing in the sector. Their analysis shows that with liberalization of the sector, and tighter environmental controls, the industry is moving towards higher efficiency and productivity. However, the analysis also shows that because these improvements are being hampered by significant financial and other barriers the industry might have a long way to go.

  13. Family system dynamics and type 1 diabetic glycemic variability: a vector-auto-regressive model.

    PubMed

    Günther, Moritz Philipp; Winker, Peter; Böttcher, Claudia; Brosig, Burkhard

    2013-06-01

    Statistical approaches rooted in econometric methodology, so far foreign to the psychiatric and psychological realms have provided exciting and substantial new insights into complex mind-body interactions over time and individuals. Over 120 days, this structured diary study explored the mutual interactions of emotions within a classic 3-person family system with its Type 1 diabetic adolescent's daily blood glucose variability. Glycemic variability was measured through daily standard deviations of blood glucose determinations (at least 3 per day). Emotions were captured individually utilizing the self-assessment manikin on affective valence (negative-positive), activation (calm-excited), and control (dominated-dominant). Auto- and cross-correlating the stationary absolute (level) values of the mutually interacting parallel time series data sets through vector autoregression (VAR, grounded in econometric theory) allowed for the formulation of 2 concordant models. Applying Cholesky Impulse Response Analysis at a 95% confidence interval, we provided evidence for an adolescent being happy, calm, and in control to exhibit less glycemic variability and hence diabetic derailment. A nondominating mother and a happy father seemed to also reduce glycemic variability. Random shocks increasing glycemic variability affected only the adolescent and her father: In 1 model, the male parent felt in charge; in the other, he calmed down while his daughter turned sad. All reactions to external shocks lasted for less than 4 full days. Extant literature on affect and glycemic variability in Type 1 diabetic adolescents as well as challenges arising from introducing econometric theory to the field were discussed.

  14. Adaptability of Irrigation to a Changing Monsoon in India: How far can we go?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zaveri, E.; Grogan, D. S.; Fisher-Vanden, K.; Frolking, S. E.; Wrenn, D. H.; Nicholas, R.

    2014-12-01

    Agriculture and the monsoon are inextricably linked in India. A large part of the steady rise in agricultural production since the onset of the Green Revolution in the 1960's has been attributed to irrigation. Irrigation is used to supplement and buffer crops against precipitation shocks, but water availability for such use is itself sensitive to the erratic, seasonal and spatially heterogeneous nature of the monsoon. We provide new evidence on the relationship between monsoon changes, irrigation variability and water availability by linking a process based hydrology model with an econometric model for one of the world's most water stressed countries. India uses more groundwater for irrigation than any other country, and there is substantial evidence that this has led to depletion of groundwater aquifers. First, we build an econometric model of historical irrigation decisions using detailed agriculture and weather data spanning 35 years. Multivariate regression models reveal that for crops grown in the wet season, irrigation is sensitive to distribution and total monsoon rainfall but not to ground or surface water availability. For crops grown in the dry season, total monsoon rainfall matters most, and its effect is sensitive to groundwater availability. The historical estimates from the econometric model are used to calculate future irrigated areas under three different climate model predictions of monsoon climate for the years 2010 - 2050. These projections are then used as input to a physical hydrology model, which quantifies supply of irrigation water from sustainable sources such as rechargeable shallow groundwater, rivers and reservoirs, to unsustainable sources such as non- rechargeable groundwater. We find that the significant variation in monsoon projections lead to very different results. Crops grown in the dry season show particularly divergent trends between model projections, leading to very different groundwater resource requirements.

  15. Trygve Haavelmo and the Emergence of Causal Calculus

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2014-06-01

    Econometric Theory, 2014, Page 1 of 28. doi:10.1017/S0266466614000231 TRYGVE HAAVELMO AND THE EMERGENCE OF CAUSAL CALCULUS JUDEA PEARL University of...Emergence of Causal Calculus 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6. AUTHOR(S) 5d. PROJECT NUMBER 5e. TASK NUMBER 5f. WORK...definition of a (Pearl, 1994): a = ∂ ∂x E(Y |do(x)) (3) HAAVELMO AND CAUSAL CALCULUS 3 which refers to a controlled experiment in which an agent (e.g

  16. Manpower Forecasting: Problems in Determining the Long-Range Supply of Military Manpower.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1977-04-01

    demographic models of fertility : An econometric test . The Review of Economics and Statistics, August 1969, 258-308. Ryder, N. A critique of the...CA M GOVINDAN APR 77 UNCASSFIE NPDCSR-77-8 SBI A D-630 0 25 FG511 N mommomommoN 111L4.1. * 1112.0 JJ1.8 MICROCOPY RESOLUTION TEST CHART NATINAL...and implications. Purpose The purposes of this effort were (1) to assess the validity of the under- lying assumptions related to fertility in Census

  17. Recruiters, Advertising, and Navy Enlistments,

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1979-10-01

    product markets have concluded that advertising increases demand in current and future periods, but its effects decline over time (see reference 2). A study...Apr 1979 2. Clarke, D.G., "Econometric Measurement of the Duration of Advertising Effect on Sales," Journal of Marketing Research, Nov 1976, pp. 345...7AD-AOA6201 CENTER FOR NAVAL ANALYSES ALEXANDRIA VA INST OF NAVAL--ETC F/6 5/9 I RECRUITERS, ADVERTISING , AND NAVY ENLISTMENTS. (U) IOCT 79 L

  18. Volumetric Pricing of Agricultural Water Supplies: A Case Study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Griffin, Ronald C.; Perry, Gregory M.

    1985-07-01

    Models of water consumption by rice producers are conceptualized and then estimated using cross-sectional time series data obtained from 16 Texas canal operators for the years 1977-1982. Two alternative econometric models demonstrate that both volumetric and flat rate water charges are strongly and inversely related to agricultural water consumption. Nonprice conservation incentives accompanying flat rates are hypothesized to explain the negative correlation of flat rate charges and water consumption. Application of these results suggests that water supply organizations in the sample population converting to volumetric pricing will generally reduce water consumption.

  19. Health services research as a scientific process: the metamorphosis of an empirical research project from grant proposal to final report.

    PubMed Central

    Luft, H S

    1986-01-01

    The process of health services research is rarely examined; attention is usually focused on results and policy implications. Large and small decisions made during the execution of a study, however, can have major impacts on its outcomes. This article describes a project that underwent major changes because of problems discovered in the basic data and threats to the valid interpretation of econometric results uncovered by qualitative case studies. Although the combination of difficulties encountered in this project may be unusual, it is likely that many similar problems and opportunities occur in other empirical studies. PMID:3771233

  20. Premarital cohabitation and subsequent marital dissolution: a matter of self-selection?

    PubMed

    Lillard, L A; Brien, M J; Waite, L J

    1995-08-01

    Married couples who began their relationship by cohabiting appear to face an increased risk of marital dissolution, which may be due to self-selection of more dissolution-prone individuals into cohabitation before marriage. This paper uses newly developed econometric methods to explicitly address the endogeneity of cohabitation before marriage in the hazard of marital disruption by allowing the unobserved heterogeneity components to be correlated across the decisions to cohabit and to end a marriage. These methods are applied to data from the National Longitudinal Study of the High School Class of 1972. We find significant heterogeneity in both cohabitation and marriage disruption, and discover evidence of self-selection into cohabitation.

  1. GARCH modelling of covariance in dynamical estimation of inverse solutions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Galka, Andreas; Yamashita, Okito; Ozaki, Tohru

    2004-12-01

    The problem of estimating unobserved states of spatially extended dynamical systems poses an inverse problem, which can be solved approximately by a recently developed variant of Kalman filtering; in order to provide the model of the dynamics with more flexibility with respect to space and time, we suggest to combine the concept of GARCH modelling of covariance, well known in econometrics, with Kalman filtering. We formulate this algorithm for spatiotemporal systems governed by stochastic diffusion equations and demonstrate its feasibility by presenting a numerical simulation designed to imitate the situation of the generation of electroencephalographic recordings by the human cortex.

  2. A multi-resolution approach for optimal mass transport

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dominitz, Ayelet; Angenent, Sigurd; Tannenbaum, Allen

    2007-09-01

    Optimal mass transport is an important technique with numerous applications in econometrics, fluid dynamics, automatic control, statistical physics, shape optimization, expert systems, and meteorology. Motivated by certain problems in image registration and medical image visualization, in this note, we describe a simple gradient descent methodology for computing the optimal L2 transport mapping which may be easily implemented using a multiresolution scheme. We also indicate how the optimal transport map may be computed on the sphere. A numerical example is presented illustrating our ideas.

  3. An evaluation of dynamic mutuality measurements and methods in cyclic time series

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xia, Xiaohua; Huang, Guitian; Duan, Na

    2010-12-01

    Several measurements and techniques have been developed to detect dynamic mutuality and synchronicity of time series in econometrics. This study aims to compare the performances of five methods, i.e., linear regression, dynamic correlation, Markov switching models, concordance index and recurrence quantification analysis, through numerical simulations. We evaluate the abilities of these methods to capture structure changing and cyclicity in time series and the findings of this paper would offer guidance to both academic and empirical researchers. Illustration examples are also provided to demonstrate the subtle differences of these techniques.

  4. Sample size of the reference sample in a case-augmented study.

    PubMed

    Ghosh, Palash; Dewanji, Anup

    2017-03-13

    The case-augmented study, in which a case sample is augmented with a reference (random) sample from the source population with only covariates information known, is becoming popular in different areas of applied science such as pharmacovigilance, ecology, and econometrics. In general, the case sample is available from some source (for example, hospital database, case registry, etc.); however, the reference sample is required to be drawn from the corresponding source population. The required minimum size of the reference sample is an important issue in this regard. In this work, we address the minimum sample size calculation and discuss related issues. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  5. Energy supply and demand modeling. (Latest citations from the NTIS data base). Published Search

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1992-10-01

    The bibliography contains citations concerning the use of mathematical models in trend analysis and forecasting of energy supply and demand factors. Models are presented for the industrial, transportation, and residential sectors. Aspects of long term energy strategies and markets are discussed at the global, national, state, and regional levels. Energy demand and pricing, and econometrics of energy, are explored for electric utilities and natural resources, such as coal, oil, and natural gas. Energy resources are modeled both for fuel usage and for reserves. (Contains 250 citations and includes a subject term index and title list.)

  6. Explaining the variation in elasticity estimates of gasoline demand in the United States: A meta-analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Espey, M.

    1996-12-01

    Many econometric studies of gasoline demand have been conducted over the years when fuel prices where high and concerns about energy conservation and security of supply were prominent. Studies were motivated by interest in gasoline consumers` sensitivity to fuel price changes, for the insight this might give in explaining cross country differences in gas consumption and driving and in predicting the impact of fuel tax changes on driving, fuel consumption and government revenue collections. The author used meta-analysis to determine if there are factors that systematically affect price and income elasticity estimates in studies of gasoline demand in the United States.

  7. What is learned from longitudinal studies of advertising and youth drinking and smoking? A critical assessment.

    PubMed

    Nelson, Jon P

    2010-03-01

    This paper assesses the methodology employed in longitudinal studies of advertising and youth drinking and smoking behaviors. These studies often are given a causal interpretation in the psychology and public health literatures. Four issues are examined from the perspective of econometrics. First, specification and validation of empirical models. Second, empirical issues associated with measures of advertising receptivity and exposure. Third, potential endogeneity of receptivity and exposure variables. Fourth, sample selection bias in baseline and follow-up surveys. Longitudinal studies reviewed include 20 studies of youth drinking and 26 studies of youth smoking. Substantial shortcomings are found in the studies, which preclude a causal interpretation.

  8. Energy supply and demand modeling. (Latest citations from the NTIS bibliographic database). Published Search

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1994-12-01

    The bibliography contains citations concerning the use of mathematical models in trend analysis and forecasting of energy supply and demand factors. Models are presented for the industrial, transportation, and residential sectors. Aspects of long term energy strategies and markets are discussed at the global, national, state, and regional levels. Energy demand and pricing, and econometrics of energy, are explored for electric utilities and natural resources, such as coal, oil, and natural gas. Energy resources are modeled both for fuel usage and for reserves. (Contains 250 citations and includes a subject term index and title list.)

  9. Gasoline demand in developing Asian countries

    SciTech Connect

    McRae, R.

    1994-12-31

    This paper presents econometric estimates of motor gasoline demand in eleven developing countries of Asia. The price and GDP per capita elasticities are estimated for each country separately, and for several pooled combinations of the countries. The estimated elasticities for the Asian countries are compared with those of the OECD countries. Generally, one finds that the OECD countries have GDP elasticities that are smaller, and price elasticities that are larger (in absolute value). The price elasticities for the low-income Asian countries are more inelastic than for the middle-income Asian countries, and the GDP elasticities are generally more elastic. 13 refs., 6 tabs.

  10. Consumer behavior towards fuel efficient vehicles. Volume III: forecasts of the composition of household motor vehicle holdings. Final report Oct 77-Feb 80

    SciTech Connect

    Sherman, L.; Manski, C.F.; Ginn, J.R.

    1980-02-01

    This volume presents forecasts of household vehicle type purchases and holdings over the 1978 - 1985 period covered by Title V fuel economy Standards. The forecasts are based on an econometric model explaining the make, model and vintage composition of individual household vehicle holdings. The empirical analysis is based on a national random sample of households contacted in February, 1976. Two models are estimated, one explaining the compositions of holdings in one-vehicle households, and the other explaining vehicle choices in multiple-vehicle households.

  11. Energy supply and demand modeling. (Latest citations from the NTIS bibliographic database). Published Search

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1994-01-01

    The bibliography contains citations concerning the use of mathematical models in trend analysis and forecasting of energy supply and demand factors. Models are presented for the industrial, transportation, and residential sectors. Aspects of long term energy strategies and markets are discussed at the global, national, state, and regional levels. Energy demand and pricing, and econometrics of energy, are explored for electric utilities and natural resources, such as coal, oil, and natural gas. Energy resources are modeled both for fuel usage and for reserves. (Contains 250 citations and includes a subject term index and title list.)

  12. Risk Assessment Methodology Based on the NISTIR 7628 Guidelines

    SciTech Connect

    Abercrombie, Robert K; Sheldon, Frederick T; Hauser, Katie R; Lantz, Margaret W; Mili, Ali

    2013-01-01

    Earlier work describes computational models of critical infrastructure that allow an analyst to estimate the security of a system in terms of the impact of loss per stakeholder resulting from security breakdowns. Here, we consider how to identify, monitor and estimate risk impact and probability for different smart grid stakeholders. Our constructive method leverages currently available standards and defined failure scenarios. We utilize the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) Interagency or Internal Reports (NISTIR) 7628 as a basis to apply Cyberspace Security Econometrics system (CSES) for comparing design principles and courses of action in making security-related decisions.

  13. Scientific and economic potential of the SEASAT Program. [satellite system for global oceanographic data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mccandless, S. W.; Miller, B. P.

    1974-01-01

    The SEASAT satellite system is planned as a user-oriented system for timely monitoring of global ocean dynamics and mapping the global ocean geoid. The satellite instrumentation and modular concept are discussed. Operational data capabilities will include oceanographic data services, direct satellite read-out to users, and conversational retrieval and analysis of stored data. A case-study technique, generalized through physical and econometric modeling, indicates potential economic benefit from SEASAT to users in the following areas: ship routing, iceberg reconnaissance, arctic operations, Alaska pipeline ship link, and off-shore oil production.

  14. Modeling the world in a spreadsheet: Environmental simulation on a microcomputer

    SciTech Connect

    Cartwright, T.J.

    1993-12-31

    This article focuses on the following: Modeling Natural Systems Blowing Smoke; Atmospheric Dispersion of Air Pollution Running Water; The Underground Transport of Pollutants Preserving the Species; Determining Minimum Viable Population Sustainable Yield; Managing the Forest for the Trees Here Comes the Sun; Solar Energy from a Flat-Plate Collector Modeling Social Systems Macroeconomic Policy; Econometrics and the Klein Model Urban Form; The Lowry Model of Population Distribution Affordable Housing; The Bertaud/World Bank Model Traffic on the Roads; Modeling Trip Generation and Trip Distribution Throwing Things Away; A Model for Waste Management Apples and Oranges; and An Environmental Impact Assessment Model Modeling Artificial Systems Life in a Spreadsheet.

  15. Granger Causality and Transfer Entropy Are Equivalent for Gaussian Variables

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barnett, Lionel; Barrett, Adam B.; Seth, Anil K.

    2009-12-01

    Granger causality is a statistical notion of causal influence based on prediction via vector autoregression. Developed originally in the field of econometrics, it has since found application in a broader arena, particularly in neuroscience. More recently transfer entropy, an information-theoretic measure of time-directed information transfer between jointly dependent processes, has gained traction in a similarly wide field. While it has been recognized that the two concepts must be related, the exact relationship has until now not been formally described. Here we show that for Gaussian variables, Granger causality and transfer entropy are entirely equivalent, thus bridging autoregressive and information-theoretic approaches to data-driven causal inference.

  16. Statistical and Economic Techniques for Site-specific Nematode Management.

    PubMed

    Liu, Zheng; Griffin, Terry; Kirkpatrick, Terrence L

    2014-03-01

    Recent advances in precision agriculture technologies and spatial statistics allow realistic, site-specific estimation of nematode damage to field crops and provide a platform for the site-specific delivery of nematicides within individual fields. This paper reviews the spatial statistical techniques that model correlations among neighboring observations and develop a spatial economic analysis to determine the potential of site-specific nematicide application. The spatial econometric methodology applied in the context of site-specific crop yield response contributes to closing the gap between data analysis and realistic site-specific nematicide recommendations and helps to provide a practical method of site-specifically controlling nematodes.

  17. The impact of energy, transport, and trade on air pollution in China

    SciTech Connect

    Poon, J.P.H.; Casas, I.; He, C.F.

    2006-09-15

    A team of U.S.- and China-based geographers examines the relationship between China's economic development and its environment by modeling the effects of energy, transport, and trade on local air pollution emissions (sulfur dioxide and soot particulates) using the Environmental Kuznets model. Specifically, the latter model is investigated using spatial econometrics that take into account potential regional spillover effects from high-polluting neighbors. The analysis finds an inverted-U relationship for sulfur dioxide but a U-shaped curve for soot particulates. This suggests that soot particulates such as black carbon may pose a more serious environmental problem in China than sulfur dioxide.

  18. DDT (2,2,bis(p-chlorophenyl) 1,1,1-trichloroethane) induced structural changes in adrenal glands of rats

    SciTech Connect

    Chowdhury, A.R.; Gautam, A.K.; Venkatakrishna-Bhatt, H. )

    1990-08-01

    Oldest chlorinated hydrocarbon insecticide, DDT was used widely to control pest and vector borne diseases in developing countries. Malaria and vector borne diseases can be econometrically controlled by DDT. Chronic and acute exposures to DDT result in systemic disorders in human as well as this confirmed in animals. Experimental study revealed that DDT caused the structural and functional changes in thyroid and reproductive system. The effects of DDT on adrenal glands are not well documented. Therefore this experimental investigation was undertaken to evaluate the histomorphological changes of adrenal gland after the treatment with DDT in rats.

  19. Well-being losses due to care-giving.

    PubMed

    van den Berg, Bernard; Fiebig, Denzil G; Hall, Jane

    2014-05-01

    This paper estimates the impact of informal caregiving on self-reported well-being. It uses a sample of 23,285 respondents of the first eleven waves of the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA). We apply a relatively new analytical method that enables us to estimate fixed effects ordered logit to analyse subjective well-being. The econometric estimates show that providing informal care has a negative effect on subjective well-being. The empirical evidence of our paper could be helpful to inform policy makers to better understand the impact of caregiving and design the appropriate long term care policies and support services.

  20. The development and utilization of solar photovoltaic cells: An assessment of the potential for a new energy technology

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cyr, K. J.

    1981-01-01

    The Government set the goal of accelerating the adaptation of photovoltaics by reducing system costs to a competitive level and overcoming the technical, institutional, legal, environmental, and social barriers impeding the diffusion of photovoltaic technology. The technology of silicon solar arrays was examined and the status of development efforts are reviewed. The political, legal, economic, social, and environmental issues are discussed, and several methods for selecting development projects are described. A number of market forecasting techniques, including time trend, judgemental, and econometric methods, were reviewed, and the results of these models are presented.

  1. What is Learned from Longitudinal Studies of Advertising and Youth Drinking and Smoking? A Critical Assessment

    PubMed Central

    Nelson, Jon P

    2010-01-01

    This paper assesses the methodology employed in longitudinal studies of advertising and youth drinking and smoking behaviors. These studies often are given a causal interpretation in the psychology and public health literatures. Four issues are examined from the perspective of econometrics. First, specification and validation of empirical models. Second, empirical issues associated with measures of advertising receptivity and exposure. Third, potential endogeneity of receptivity and exposure variables. Fourth, sample selection bias in baseline and follow-up surveys. Longitudinal studies reviewed include 20 studies of youth drinking and 26 studies of youth smoking. Substantial shortcomings are found in the studies, which preclude a causal interpretation. PMID:20617009

  2. Consumer behavior towards fuel efficient vehicles. Volume I: executive summary. Final report Oct 77-Feb 80

    SciTech Connect

    Sherman, L.; Manski, C.F.; Ginn, J.R.

    1980-02-01

    This report assesses consumer behavior towards fuel-efficient vehicles designed to meet recently mandated federal fuel economy standards. The study involves a comprehensive evaluation of existing nationwide survey data as well as the development of a major new econometric forecasting model of household vehicle type choice. As a result, the report describes both an assessment of consumers' current reported sentiments toward fuel-efficient vehicles and insights into expected future changes in household vehicle purchase behavior in response to changes in vehicle designs and prices, demographics, and the energy environment.

  3. Consumer behavior towards fuel efficient vehicles. Volume IV: operating instructions and program documentation for the CS vehicle choice simulation model. Final report, October 1977-September 1980

    SciTech Connect

    Ginn, J.R.; Berkovec, J.A.

    1980-09-01

    The report assesses consumer behavior towards fuel-efficient vehicles designed to meet recently mandated federal fuel economy standards. The study involves a comprehensive evaluation of existing nationwide survey data as well as the development of a major new econometric forecasting model of household vehicle type choice. As a result, the report describes both an assessment of consumers' current reported sentiments toward fuel-efficient vehicles and insights into expected future changes in household vehicle purchase behavior in response to changes in vehicle designs and prices, demographics, and the energy environment.

  4. 3D Weight Matrices in Modeling Real Estate Prices

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mimis, A.

    2016-10-01

    Central role in spatial econometric models of real estate data has the definition of the weight matrix by which we capture the spatial dependence between the observations. The weight matrices presented in literature so far, treats space in a two dimensional manner leaving out the effect of the third dimension or in our case the difference in height where the property resides. To overcome this, we propose a new definition of the weight matrix including the third dimensional effect by using the Hadamard product. The results illustrated that the level effect can be absorbed into the new weight matrix.

  5. Econometricians, your probabilities are close to their end. Economists, now look for a new world!

    PubMed

    Brian, Éric

    2015-01-01

    The article examines several stochastic layers of epistemic reasoning at work in econometrics and in the current economic methods: (1) the argumentative level; (2) the reasoning based on the analogy with gambling; (3) the models based on analytical calculation of probabilities, where the phenomenon is held centered, its uncertainty being controlled by white noise as to its fluctuation; (4) the axiomatic calculus. Entanglement of these strata is observed. The article calls for reflexion on the topic. Doing so, it introduces the concept of stochastic cognitive artifacts.

  6. Migration plans and hours of work in Malaysia.

    PubMed

    Gillin, E D; Sumner, D A

    1985-01-01

    "This article describes characteristics of prospective migrants in the Malaysian Family Life Survey and investigates how planning to move affects hours of work. [The authors] use ideas about intertemporal substitution...to discuss the response to temporary and permanent wage expectations on the part of potential migrants. [An] econometric section presents reduced-form estimates for wage rates and planned migration equations and two-stage least squares estimates for hours of work. Men currently planning a move were found to work fewer hours. Those originally planning only a temporary stay at their current location work more hours."

  7. Stochastic Calculus and Differential Equations for Physics and Finance

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McCauley, Joseph L.

    2013-02-01

    1. Random variables and probability distributions; 2. Martingales, Markov, and nonstationarity; 3. Stochastic calculus; 4. Ito processes and Fokker-Planck equations; 5. Selfsimilar Ito processes; 6. Fractional Brownian motion; 7. Kolmogorov's PDEs and Chapman-Kolmogorov; 8. Non Markov Ito processes; 9. Black-Scholes, martingales, and Feynman-Katz; 10. Stochastic calculus with martingales; 11. Statistical physics and finance, a brief history of both; 12. Introduction to new financial economics; 13. Statistical ensembles and time series analysis; 14. Econometrics; 15. Semimartingales; References; Index.

  8. Pre- and postnatal drivers of childhood intelligence: evidence from Singapore.

    PubMed

    Pacheco, Gail; Hedges, Mary; Schilling, Chris; Morton, Susan

    2013-01-01

    This study seeks to investigate what influences intelligence in early childhood. The Singapore Cohort Study of the Risk Factors of Myopia (SCORM) is used to assess determinants of childhood IQ and changes in IQ. This longitudinal data set, collected in 1999, includes a wealth of demographic, socioeconomic and prenatal characteristics. The richness of the data allows various econometric approaches to be employed, including the use of ordered and multinomial logit analysis. Mother's education is found to be a consistent and key determinant of childhood IQ. Father's education and school quality are found to be key drivers for increasing IQ levels above the average sample movement.

  9. Is inequality harmful for the environment? An empirical analysis applied to developing and transition countries.

    PubMed

    Clement, Matthieu; Meunie, Andre

    2010-01-01

    The object of this article is to examine the relation between social inequalities and pollution. First of all we provide a survey demonstrating that, from a theoretical point of view, a decrease in inequality has an uncertain impact on the environment. Second, on the basis of these conceptual considerations, we propose an econometric analysis based on panel data (fixed-effects and dynamic panel data models) concerning developing and transition countries for the 1988-2003 period. We examine specifically the effect of inequality on the extent of local pollution (sulphur dioxide emissions and organic water pollution) by integrating the Gini index into the formulation of the environmental Kuznets' curve.

  10. Measuring hospital competition.

    PubMed

    White, S L; Chirikos, T N

    1988-03-01

    This paper appraises the use of the Herfindahl market share index as an exogenous competition variable in empirical studies of the hospital sector. An analysis of cross-sectional Florida data shows that this index itself is significantly influenced by the demand and supply factors commonly included in econometric models of hospital performance. The analysis then illustrates that biased inferences about the effects of market competition on the costs of hospital care may result unless the values of the Herfindahl Index are treated endogenously in hospital cost models.

  11. Effect of economic growth and environmental quality on tourism in Southeast Asian Countries

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Firmansyah

    2017-02-01

    The tourism is an important sector in generating income for a country, nevertheless, tourism is sensitive toward the changes in economy, as well as changes in environmental quality. By employing econometric models of error correction on annual data, this study examines the influence of environmental quality, domestic and global economic growth on foreign tourist arrivals in selected Southeast Asian countries, namely Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Philippines, and Singapore. The findings of this study showed that all of countries long run model were proved statistically, indicated that world economic growth as well as environmental quality affect foreign tourism arrivals.

  12. The effect of narrow provider networks on health care use.

    PubMed

    Atwood, Alicia; Lo Sasso, Anthony T

    2016-12-01

    Network design is an often overlooked aspect of health insurance contracts. Recent policy factors have resulted in narrower provider networks. We provide plausibly causal evidence on the effect of narrow network plans offered by a large national health insurance carrier in a major metropolitan market. Our econometric design exploits the fact that some firms offer a narrow network plan to their employees and some do not. Our results show that narrow network health plans lead to reductions in health care utilization and spending. We find evidence that narrow networks save money by selecting lower cost providers into the network.

  13. A statistical test of the stability assumption inherent in empirical estimates of economic depreciation.

    PubMed

    Shriver, K A

    1986-01-01

    Realistic estimates of economic depreciation are required for analyses of tax policy, economic growth and production, and national income and wealth. THe purpose of this paper is to examine the stability assumption underlying the econometric derivation of empirical estimates of economic depreciation for industrial machinery and and equipment. The results suggest that a reasonable stability of economic depreciation rates of decline may exist over time. Thus, the assumption of a constant rate of economic depreciation may be a reasonable approximation for further empirical economic analyses.

  14. Oil and Gas Supply Modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gass, S. I.

    1982-05-01

    The theoretical and applied state of the art of oil and gas supply models was discussed. The following areas were addressed: the realities of oil and gas supply, prediction of oil and gas production, problems in oil and gas modeling, resource appraisal procedures, forecasting field size and production, investment and production strategies, estimating cost and production schedules for undiscovered fields, production regulations, resource data, sensitivity analysis of forecasts, econometric analysis of resource depletion, oil and gas finding rates, and various models of oil and gas supply.

  15. The relationship between health expenditures and the age structure of the population in OECD countries.

    PubMed

    O'Connell, J M

    1996-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to analyse national health expenditures of OECD countries relative to their age structures. Using econometric techniques designed to analyse cross-sectional time series data, the ageing of the population was found to affect health spending in several countries while having no effect in others. In addition, the effect of income on health spending was lower than that generally reported in the literature. These findings suggest that unobserved country-specific factors play a major role in determining the amount of resources allocated to health services in a country. Such factors also determine if the ageing of the population with increased health spending.

  16. Genetic markers as instrumental variables

    PubMed Central

    von Hinke, Stephanie; Davey Smith, George; Lawlor, Debbie A.; Propper, Carol; Windmeijer, Frank

    2016-01-01

    The use of genetic markers as instrumental variables (IV) is receiving increasing attention from economists, statisticians, epidemiologists and social scientists. Although IV is commonly used in economics, the appropriate conditions for the use of genetic variants as instruments have not been well defined. The increasing availability of biomedical data, however, makes understanding of these conditions crucial to the successful use of genotypes as instruments. We combine the econometric IV literature with that from genetic epidemiology, and discuss the biological conditions and IV assumptions within the statistical potential outcomes framework. We review this in the context of two illustrative applications. PMID:26614692

  17. Well-being losses due to care-giving☆☆☆

    PubMed Central

    van den Berg, Bernard; Fiebig, Denzil G.; Hall, Jane

    2014-01-01

    This paper estimates the impact of informal caregiving on self-reported well-being. It uses a sample of 23,285 respondents of the first eleven waves of the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA). We apply a relatively new analytical method that enables us to estimate fixed effects ordered logit to analyse subjective well-being. The econometric estimates show that providing informal care has a negative effect on subjective well-being. The empirical evidence of our paper could be helpful to inform policy makers to better understand the impact of caregiving and design the appropriate long term care policies and support services. PMID:24662888

  18. Cost-effectiveness analysis for health communication programs.

    PubMed

    Guilkey, David K; Hutchinson, Paul; Lance, Peter

    2006-01-01

    This article describes methods for analyzing the cost-effectiveness of health communication programs, focusing in particular on estimating program effectiveness with econometric methods that address experimental and quasi-experimental designs (and their absence), national or subnational program coverage, and endogenously targeting of programs. Experimental designs provide a gold standard for assessing effectiveness but are seldom feasible for large-scale health communication programs. Even in the absence of such designs, however, fairly simple methods can be used to examine intermediate objectives, such as program reach, which in turn can be linked to program costs to estimate cost effectiveness. When moving beyond program reach to behavioral or other outcome measures, such as contraceptive use or fertility, or when faced with full-coverage national programs, more elaborate data and methods are required. We discuss data requirements and assumptions necessary in each case, focusing on single-equation multiple regression models, structural equations models, and fixed effects estimators for use with longitudinal data, and then describing how cost information can be incorporated into econometric models so as to get measures of the cost-effectiveness of communication interventions.

  19. Heterogeneous autoregressive model with structural break using nearest neighbor truncation volatility estimators for DAX.

    PubMed

    Chin, Wen Cheong; Lee, Min Cherng; Yap, Grace Lee Ching

    2016-01-01

    High frequency financial data modelling has become one of the important research areas in the field of financial econometrics. However, the possible structural break in volatile financial time series often trigger inconsistency issue in volatility estimation. In this study, we propose a structural break heavy-tailed heterogeneous autoregressive (HAR) volatility econometric model with the enhancement of jump-robust estimators. The breakpoints in the volatility are captured by dummy variables after the detection by Bai-Perron sequential multi breakpoints procedure. In order to further deal with possible abrupt jump in the volatility, the jump-robust volatility estimators are composed by using the nearest neighbor truncation approach, namely the minimum and median realized volatility. Under the structural break improvements in both the models and volatility estimators, the empirical findings show that the modified HAR model provides the best performing in-sample and out-of-sample forecast evaluations as compared with the standard HAR models. Accurate volatility forecasts have direct influential to the application of risk management and investment portfolio analysis.

  20. Adaptive Elastic Net for Generalized Methods of Moments.

    PubMed

    Caner, Mehmet; Zhang, Hao Helen

    2014-01-30

    Model selection and estimation are crucial parts of econometrics. This paper introduces a new technique that can simultaneously estimate and select the model in generalized method of moments (GMM) context. The GMM is particularly powerful for analyzing complex data sets such as longitudinal and panel data, and it has wide applications in econometrics. This paper extends the least squares based adaptive elastic net estimator of Zou and Zhang (2009) to nonlinear equation systems with endogenous variables. The extension is not trivial and involves a new proof technique due to estimators lack of closed form solutions. Compared to Bridge-GMM of Caner (2009), we allow for the number of parameters to diverge to infinity as well as collinearity among a large number of variables, also the redundant parameters set to zero via a data dependent technique. This method has the oracle property, meaning that we can estimate nonzero parameters with their standard limit and the redundant parameters are dropped from the equations simultaneously. Numerical examples are used to illustrate the performance of the new method.

  1. Three Essays on Renewable Energy Policy and its Effects on Fossil Fuel Generation in Electricity Markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bowen, Eric

    In this dissertation, I investigate the effectiveness of renewable policies and consider their impact on electricity markets. The common thread of this research is to understand how renewable policy incentivizes renewable generation and how the increasing share of generation from renewables affects generation from fossil fuels. This type of research is crucial for understanding whether policies to promote renewables are meeting their stated goals and what the unintended effects might be. To this end, I use econometric methods to examine how electricity markets are responding to an influx of renewable energy. My dissertation is composed of three interrelated essays. In Chapter 1, I employ recent scholarship in spatial econometrics to assess the spatial dependence of Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS), a prominent state-based renewable incentive. In Chapter 2, I explore the impact of the rapid rise in renewable generation on short-run generation from fossil fuels. And in Chapter 3, I assess the impact of renewable penetration on coal plant retirement decisions.

  2. Directory of Energy Information Administration Model Abstracts

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1986-07-16

    This directory partially fulfills the requirements of Section 8c, of the documentation order, which states in part that: The Office of Statistical Standards will annually publish an EIA document based on the collected abstracts and the appendices. This report contains brief statements about each model's title, acronym, purpose, and status, followed by more detailed information on characteristics, uses, and requirements. Sources for additional information are identified. All models active through March 1985 are included. The main body of this directory is an alphabetical list of all active EIA models. Appendix A identifies major EIA modeling systems and the models within these systems, and Appendix B identifies active EIA models by type (basic, auxiliary, and developing). EIA also leases models developed by proprietary software vendors. Documentation for these proprietary models is the responsibility of the companies from which they are leased. EIA has recently leased models from Chase Econometrics, Inc., Data Resources, Inc. (DRI), the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), and Wharton Econometric Forecasting Associates (WEFA). Leased models are not abstracted here. The directory is intended for the use of energy and energy-policy analysts in the public and private sectors.

  3. Travel cost demand model based river recreation benefit estimates with on-site and household surveys: Comparative results and a correction procedure

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Loomis, John

    2003-04-01

    Past recreation studies have noted that on-site or visitor intercept surveys are subject to over-sampling of avid users (i.e., endogenous stratification) and have offered econometric solutions to correct for this. However, past papers do not estimate the empirical magnitude of the bias in benefit estimates with a real data set, nor do they compare the corrected estimates to benefit estimates derived from a population sample. This paper empirically examines the magnitude of the recreation benefits per trip bias by comparing estimates from an on-site river visitor intercept survey to a household survey. The difference in average benefits is quite large, with the on-site visitor survey yielding 24 per day trip, while the household survey yields 9.67 per day trip. A simple econometric correction for endogenous stratification in our count data model lowers the benefit estimate to $9.60 per day trip, a mean value nearly identical and not statistically different from the household survey estimate.

  4. The regional costs and benefits of acid rain control

    SciTech Connect

    Berkman, M.P.

    1991-01-01

    Congress recently enacted acid rain control legislation as part of the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments following a decade-long debate among disparate regional interests. Although Congress succeeded in drafting a law acceptable to all regions, the regional costs and benefits of the legislation remain uncertain. The research presented here attempts to estimate the regional costs and benefits and the economic impacts of acid rain controls. These estimates are made using a modeling system composed of econometric, linear programming and input-output models. The econometric and linear programming components describe markets for electricity and coal. The outputs of these components including capital investment, electricity demand, and coal production are taken as exogenous inputs by a multiregional input-output model. The input-output model produces estimates of changes in final demand, gross output, and employment. The utility linear programming model also predicts sulfur dioxide emissions (an acid-rain precursor). According to model simulations, the costs of acid rain control exceed the benefits for many regions including several regions customarily thought to be the major beneficiaries of acid rain control such as New England.

  5. India's cement industry: Productivity, energy efficiency and carbon emissions

    SciTech Connect

    Schumacher, Katja; Sathaye, Jayant

    1999-07-01

    Historical estimates of productivity growth in India's cement sector vary from indicating an improvement to a decline in the sector's productivity. The variance may be traced to the time period of study, source of data for analysis, and type of indices and econometric specifications used for reporting productivity growth. Analysis shows that in the twenty year period, 1973 to 1993, productivity in the aluminum sector increased by 0.8% per annum. An econometric analysis reveals that technical progress in India's cement sector has been biased towards the use of energy and capital, while it has been material and labor saving. The increase in productivity was mainly driven by a period of progress between 1983 and 1991 following partial decontrol of the cement sector in 1982. The authors examine the current changes in structure and energy efficiency in the sector. Their analysis shows that the Indian cement sector is moving towards world-best technology, which will result in fewer carbon emissions and more efficient energy use. However, substantial further energy savings and carbon reduction potentials still exist.

  6. Aggregrate consumer expenditures on energy. Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Jorgenson, D.W.

    1984-08-01

    This report presents a new economic model for the allocation of aggregate consumer expenditures on energy in the United States. Our model is based on a theory of consumer behavior involving two stages. In the first stage total expenditures are allocated between and nonenergy commodities. Allocation depends on the price of energy, prices of all nonenergy commodities, and the level of total expenditure. Total energy expenditure in the second stage is allocated among individual types of energy. The second stage allocation depends on the prices of individual types of energy and the level of total energy expenditure. Our econometric model can be applied to the generation of projection of aggregrate energy demand in the United States. Projected future energy prices, the future level and distribution of total energy expenditure, and the future demographic development of the population for projections. The model can also be used to make projections for individual consumer groups within the United States, classified by total energy expenditure and by demographic characteristics. Finally, it can be integrated into a model of energy and nonenergy expenditures to provide a complete model of aggregate consumer behavior. Our econometric model of aggregate consumer behavior can be applied to the generation of projection of demand individual types of energy and for all nonenergy commodities in the United States.

  7. An Ecology of Prestige in New York City: Examining the Relationships Among Population Density, Socio-economic Status, Group Identity, and Residential Canopy Cover

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grove, J. Morgan; Locke, Dexter H.; O'Neil-Dunne, Jarlath P. M.

    2014-09-01

    Several social theories have been proposed to explain the uneven distribution of vegetation in urban residential areas: population density, social stratification, luxury effect, and ecology of prestige. We evaluate these theories using a combination of demographic and socio-economic predictors of vegetative cover on all residential lands in New York City. We use diverse data sources including the City's property database, time-series demographic and socio-economic data from the US Census, and land cover data from the University of Vermont's Spatial Analysis Lab (SAL). These data are analyzed using a multi-model inferential, spatial econometrics approach. We also examine the distribution of vegetation within distinct market categories using Claritas' Potential Rating Index for Zipcode Markets (PRIZM™) database. These categories can be disaggregated, corresponding to the four social theories. We compare the econometric and categorical results for validation. Models associated with ecology of prestige theory are more effective for predicting the distribution of vegetation. This suggests that private, residential patterns of vegetation, reflecting the consumption of environmentally relevant goods and services, are associated with different lifestyles and lifestages. Further, our spatial and temporal analyses suggest that there are significant spatial and temporal dependencies that have theoretical and methodological implications for understanding urban ecological systems. These findings may have policy implications. Decision makers may need to consider how to most effectively reach different social groups in terms of messages and messengers in order to advance land management practices and achieve urban sustainability.

  8. Estimating economic value of agricultural water under changing conditions and the effects of spatial aggregation.

    PubMed

    Medellín-Azuara, Josué; Harou, Julien J; Howitt, Richard E

    2010-11-01

    Given the high proportion of water used for agriculture in certain regions, the economic value of agricultural water can be an important tool for water management and policy development. This value is quantified using economic demand curves for irrigation water. Such demand functions show the incremental contribution of water to agricultural production. Water demand curves are estimated using econometric or optimisation techniques. Calibrated agricultural optimisation models allow the derivation of demand curves using smaller datasets than econometric models. This paper introduces these subject areas then explores the effect of spatial aggregation (upscaling) on the valuation of water for irrigated agriculture. A case study from the Rio Grande-Rio Bravo Basin in North Mexico investigates differences in valuation at farm and regional aggregated levels under four scenarios: technological change, warm-dry climate change, changes in agricultural commodity prices, and water costs for agriculture. The scenarios consider changes due to external shocks or new policies. Positive mathematical programming (PMP), a calibrated optimisation method, is the deductive valuation method used. An exponential cost function is compared to the quadratic cost functions typically used in PMP. Results indicate that the economic value of water at the farm level and the regionally aggregated level are similar, but that the variability and distributional effects of each scenario are affected by aggregation. Moderately aggregated agricultural production models are effective at capturing average-farm adaptation to policy changes and external shocks. Farm-level models best reveal the distribution of scenario impacts.

  9. Treatment effects model for assessing disease management: measuring outcomes and strengthening program management.

    PubMed

    Wendel, Jeanne; Dumitras, Diana

    2005-06-01

    This paper describes an analytical methodology for obtaining statistically unbiased outcomes estimates for programs in which participation decisions may be correlated with variables that impact outcomes. This methodology is particularly useful for intraorganizational program evaluations conducted for business purposes. In this situation, data is likely to be available for a population of managed care members who are eligible to participate in a disease management (DM) program, with some electing to participate while others eschew the opportunity. The most pragmatic analytical strategy for in-house evaluation of such programs is likely to be the pre-intervention/post-intervention design in which the control group consists of people who were invited to participate in the DM program, but declined the invitation. Regression estimates of program impacts may be statistically biased if factors that impact participation decisions are correlated with outcomes measures. This paper describes an econometric procedure, the Treatment Effects model, developed to produce statistically unbiased estimates of program impacts in this type of situation. Two equations are estimated to (a) estimate the impacts of patient characteristics on decisions to participate in the program, and then (b) use this information to produce a statistically unbiased estimate of the impact of program participation on outcomes. This methodology is well-established in economics and econometrics, but has not been widely applied in the DM outcomes measurement literature; hence, this paper focuses on one illustrative application.

  10. Attrition Bias in Panel Data: A Sheep in Wolf's Clothing? A Case Study Based on the Mabel Survey.

    PubMed

    Cheng, Terence C; Trivedi, Pravin K

    2015-09-01

    This paper investigates the nature and consequences of sample attrition in a unique longitudinal survey of medical doctors. We describe the patterns of non-response and examine if attrition affects the econometric analysis of medical labour market outcomes using the estimation of physician earnings equations as a case study. We compare the econometric gestimates obtained from a number of different modelling strategies, which are as follows: balanced versus unbalanced samples; an attrition model for panel data based on the classic sample selection model; and a recently developed copula-based selection model. Descriptive evidence shows that doctors who work longer hours, have lower years of experience, are overseas trained and have changed their work location are more likely to drop out. Our analysis suggests that the impact of attrition on inference about the earnings of general practitioners is small. For specialists, there appears to be some evidence for an economically significant bias. Finally, we discuss how the top-up samples in the Medicine in Australia: Balancing Employment and Life survey can be used to address the problem of panel attrition.

  11. Public budgets for energy RD&D and the effects on energy intensity and pollution levels.

    PubMed

    Balsalobre, Daniel; Álvarez, Agustín; Cantos, José María

    2015-04-01

    This study, based on the N-shaped cubic model of the environmental Kuznets curve, analyzes the evolution of per capita greenhouse gas emissions (GHGpc) using not just economic growth but also public budgets dedicated to energy-oriented research development and demonstration (RD&D) and energy intensity. The empirical evidence, obtained from an econometric model of fixed effects for 28 OECD countries during 1994-2010, suggests that energy innovations help reduce GHGpc levels and mitigate the negative impact of energy intensity on environmental quality. When countries develop active energy RD&D policies, they can reduce both the rates of energy intensity and the level of GHGpc emissions. This paper incorporates a moderating variable to the econometric model that emphasizes the effect that GDP has on energy intensity. It also adds a variable that reflects the difference between countries that have made a greater economic effort in energy RD&D, which in turn corrects the GHG emissions resulting from the energy intensity of each country.

  12. An ecology of prestige in New York City: examining the relationships among population density, socio-economic status, group identity, and residential canopy cover.

    PubMed

    Grove, J Morgan; Locke, Dexter H; O'Neil-Dunne, Jarlath P M

    2014-09-01

    Several social theories have been proposed to explain the uneven distribution of vegetation in urban residential areas: population density, social stratification, luxury effect, and ecology of prestige. We evaluate these theories using a combination of demographic and socio-economic predictors of vegetative cover on all residential lands in New York City. We use diverse data sources including the City's property database, time-series demographic and socio-economic data from the US Census, and land cover data from the University of Vermont's Spatial Analysis Lab (SAL). These data are analyzed using a multi-model inferential, spatial econometrics approach. We also examine the distribution of vegetation within distinct market categories using Claritas' Potential Rating Index for Zipcode Markets (PRIZM™) database. These categories can be disaggregated, corresponding to the four social theories. We compare the econometric and categorical results for validation. Models associated with ecology of prestige theory are more effective for predicting the distribution of vegetation. This suggests that private, residential patterns of vegetation, reflecting the consumption of environmentally relevant goods and services, are associated with different lifestyles and lifestages. Further, our spatial and temporal analyses suggest that there are significant spatial and temporal dependencies that have theoretical and methodological implications for understanding urban ecological systems. These findings may have policy implications. Decision makers may need to consider how to most effectively reach different social groups in terms of messages and messengers in order to advance land management practices and achieve urban sustainability.

  13. Driving factors of interactions between the exchange rate market and the commodity market: A wavelet-based complex network perspective

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wen, Shaobo; An, Haizhong; Chen, Zhihua; Liu, Xueyong

    2017-08-01

    In traditional econometrics, a time series must be in a stationary sequence. However, it usually shows time-varying fluctuations, and it remains a challenge to execute a multiscale analysis of the data and discover the topological characteristics of conduction in different scales. Wavelet analysis and complex networks in physical statistics have special advantages in solving these problems. We select the exchange rate variable from the Chinese market and the commodity price index variable from the world market as the time series of our study. We explore the driving factors behind the behavior of the two markets and their topological characteristics in three steps. First, we use the Kalman filter to find the optimal estimation of the relationship between the two markets. Second, wavelet analysis is used to extract the scales of the relationship that are driven by different frequency wavelets. Meanwhile, we search for the actual economic variables corresponding to different frequency wavelets. Finally, a complex network is used to search for the transfer characteristics of the combination of states driven by different frequency wavelets. The results show that statistical physics have a unique advantage over traditional econometrics. The Chinese market has time-varying impacts on the world market: it has greater influence when the world economy is stable and less influence in times of turmoil. The process of forming the state combination is random. Transitions between state combinations have a clustering feature. Based on these characteristics, we can effectively reduce the information burden on investors and correctly respond to the government's policy mix.

  14. India's Fertilizer Industry: Productivity and Energy Efficiency

    SciTech Connect

    Schumacher, K.; Sathaye, J.

    1999-07-01

    Historical estimates of productivity growth in India's fertilizer sector vary from indicating an improvement to a decline in the sector's productivity. The variance may be traced to the time period of study, source of data for analysis, and type of indices and econometric specifications used for reporting productivity growth. Our analysis shows that in the twenty year period, 1973 to 1993, productivity in the fertilizer sector increased by 2.3% per annum. An econometric analysis reveals that technical progress in India's fertilizer sector has been biased towards the use of energy, while it has been capital and labor saving. The increase in productivity took place during the era of total control when a retention price system and distribution control was in effect. With liberalization of the fertilizer sector and reduction of subsidies productivity declined substantially since the early 1990s. Industrial policies and fiscal incentives still play a major role in the Indian fertilizer sect or. As substantial energy savings and carbon reduction potential exists, energy policies can help overcome barriers to the adoption of these measures in giving proper incentives and correcting distorted prices.

  15. Handling preference heterogeneity for river services' adaptation to climate change.

    PubMed

    Andreopoulos, Dimitrios; Damigos, Dimitrios; Comiti, Francesco; Fischer, Christian

    2015-09-01

    Climate projection models for the Southern Mediterranean basin indicate a strong drought trend. This pattern is anticipated to affect a range of services derived from river ecosystems and consecutively deteriorate the sectoral outputs and household welfare. This paper aims to evaluate local residents' adaptation preferences for the Piave River basin in Italy. A Discrete Choice Experiment accounting for adaptation scenarios of the Piave River services was conducted and the collected data were econometrically analyzed using Random Parameters Logit, Latent Class and Covariance Heterogeneity models. In terms of policy-relevant outcomes, the analysis indicates that respondents are willing to pay for adaptation plans. This attitude is reflected on the compensating surplus to sustain the current state of the Piave, which corresponds to a monthly contribution of 80€ per household. From an econometric point of view, the results show that it is not sufficient to take solely into account general heterogeneity, provided that distinct treatment of the heterogeneity produces rather different welfare estimates. This implies that analysts should examine a set of criteria when deciding on how to better approach heterogeneity for each empirical data set. Overall, non-market values of environmental services should be considered when formulating cost-effective adaptation measures for river systems undergoing climate change effects and appropriate heterogeneity approximation could render these values unbiased and accurate.

  16. Long-term Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF) model (18-sector version)

    SciTech Connect

    Ross, M.H.; Thimmapuram, P.; Fisher, R.E.; Maciorowski, W.

    1993-05-01

    The new 18-sector Long-term Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF) model is designed for convenient study of future industrial energy consumption, taking into account the composition of production, energy prices, and certain kinds of policy initiatives. Electricity and aggregate fossil fuels are modeled. Changes in energy intensity in each sector are driven by autonomous technological improvement (price-independent trend), the opportunity for energy-price-sensitive improvements, energy price expectations, and investment behavior. Although this decision-making framework involves more variables than the simplest econometric models, it enables direct comparison of an econometric approach with conservation supply curves from detailed engineering analysis. It also permits explicit consideration of a variety of policy approaches other than price manipulation. The model is tested in terms of historical data for nine manufacturing sectors, and parameters are determined for forecasting purposes. Relatively uniform and satisfactory parameters are obtained from this analysis. In this report, LIEF is also applied to create base-case and demand-side management scenarios to briefly illustrate modeling procedures and outputs.

  17. Macroeconomic effects of accelerated implementation of renewable energy technologies in the US

    SciTech Connect

    Marcuse, W; Groncki, P J

    1980-02-01

    The original formulation of the Brookhaven energy system models was directed toward technology assessment for new and competing energy technologies. The Hudson-Jorgenson econometric model was originally formulated to identify the economic impacts of energy futures where energy-use projections departed markedly from historical trends. The two models were married so that the feedback effects of energy and nonenergy demand levels and nonenergy prices generated by the economic model could be reflected in the technology and fuel-mix-selection solutions of the energy model. In turn, the engineering-based energy costs, energy prices, and capital requirements for energy systems characterized in the energy model are used to override the econometric estimates based on historical data in the economic model. Recently, the coupled models have been used to address questions concerning the macroeconomic impacts of accelerating the implementation of renewable energy technologies in the United States. Of particular interest were the scenarios where (1) renewables were included which cost more than conventional alternatives now and in the future, and (2) some renewables that are initially more costly are characterized by a learning curve so that in time their costs come to equal conventional alternatives. A further analysis was done for the first case (renewables always more expensive) under conditions where (1) the incremental costs were paid by the government through deficit financing, and (2) the incremental costs were paid by consumers. This paper presents the formulation of the analysis using the combined energy system - economic model and the results of the study.

  18. Non-robust dynamic inferences from macroeconometric models: Bifurcation stratification of confidence regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barnett, William A.; Duzhak, Evgeniya Aleksandrovna

    2008-06-01

    Grandmont [J.M. Grandmont, On endogenous competitive business cycles, Econometrica 53 (1985) 995-1045] found that the parameter space of the most classical dynamic models is stratified into an infinite number of subsets supporting an infinite number of different kinds of dynamics, from monotonic stability at one extreme to chaos at the other extreme, and with many forms of multiperiodic dynamics in between. The econometric implications of Grandmont’s findings are particularly important, if bifurcation boundaries cross the confidence regions surrounding parameter estimates in policy-relevant models. Stratification of a confidence region into bifurcated subsets seriously damages robustness of dynamical inferences. Recently, interest in policy in some circles has moved to New-Keynesian models. As a result, in this paper we explore bifurcation within the class of New-Keynesian models. We develop the econometric theory needed to locate bifurcation boundaries in log-linearized New-Keynesian models with Taylor policy rules or inflation-targeting policy rules. Central results needed in this research are our theorems on the existence and location of Hopf bifurcation boundaries in each of the cases that we consider.

  19. Incomes, Attitudes, and Occurrences of Invasive Species: An Application to Signal Crayfish in Sweden

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gren, Ing-Marie; Campos, Monica; Edsman, Lennart; Bohman, Patrik

    2009-02-01

    This article analyzes and carries out an econometric test of the explanatory power of economic and attitude variables for occurrences of the nonnative signal crayfish in Swedish waters. Signal crayfish are a carrier of plague which threatens the native noble crayfish with extinction. Crayfish are associated with recreational and cultural traditions in Sweden, which may run against environmental preferences for preserving native species. Econometric analysis is carried out using panel data at the municipality level with economic factors and attitudes as explanatory variables, which are derived from a simple dynamic harvesting model. A log-normal model is used for the regression analysis, and the results indicate significant impacts on occurrences of waters with signal crayfish of changes in both economic and attitude variables. Variables reflecting environmental and recreational preferences have unexpected signs, where the former variable has a positive and the latter a negative impact on occurrences of waters with signal crayfish. These effects are, however, counteracted by their respective interaction effect with income.

  20. Economic-based projections of future land use in the conterminous United States under alternative policy scenarios.

    PubMed

    Radeloff, V C; Nelson, E; Plantinga, A J; Lewis, D J; Helmers, D; Lawler, J J; Withey, J C; Beaudry, F; Martinuzzi, S; Butsic, V; Lonsdorf, E; White, D; Polasky, S

    2012-04-01

    Land-use change significantly contributes to biodiversity loss, invasive species spread, changes in biogeochemical cycles, and the loss of ecosystem services. Planning for a sustainable future requires a thorough understanding of expected land use at the fine spatial scales relevant for modeling many ecological processes and at dimensions appropriate for regional or national-level policy making. Our goal was to construct and parameterize an econometric model of land-use change to project future land use to the year 2051 at a fine spatial scale across the conterminous United States under several alternative land-use policy scenarios. We parameterized the econometric model of land-use change with the National Resource Inventory (NRI) 1992 and 1997 land-use data for 844 000 sample points. Land-use transitions were estimated for five land-use classes (cropland, pasture, range, forest, and urban). We predicted land-use change under four scenarios: business-as-usual, afforestation, removal of agricultural subsidies, and increased urban rents. Our results for the business-as-usual scenario showed widespread changes in land use, affecting 36% of the land area of the conterminous United States, with large increases in urban land (79%) and forest (7%), and declines in cropland (-16%) and pasture (-13%). Areas with particularly high rates of land-use change included the larger Chicago area, parts of the Pacific Northwest, and the Central Valley of California. However, while land-use change was substantial, differences in results among the four scenarios were relatively minor. The only scenario that was markedly different was the afforestation scenario, which resulted in an increase of forest area that was twice as high as the business-as-usual scenario. Land-use policies can affect trends, but only so much. The basic economic and demographic factors shaping land-use changes in the United States are powerful, and even fairly dramatic policy changes, showed only moderate

  1. Using Weather Data and Climate Model Output in Economic Analyses of Climate Change

    SciTech Connect

    Auffhammer, M.; Hsiang, S. M.; Schlenker, W.; Sobel, A.

    2013-06-28

    Economists are increasingly using weather data and climate model output in analyses of the economic impacts of climate change. This article introduces a set of weather data sets and climate models that are frequently used, discusses the most common mistakes economists make in using these products, and identifies ways to avoid these pitfalls. We first provide an introduction to weather data, including a summary of the types of datasets available, and then discuss five common pitfalls that empirical researchers should be aware of when using historical weather data as explanatory variables in econometric applications. We then provide a brief overview of climate models and discuss two common and significant errors often made by economists when climate model output is used to simulate the future impacts of climate change on an economic outcome of interest.

  2. Unequal Recovery? Federal Resource Distribution after a Midwest Flood Disaster

    PubMed Central

    Muñoz, Cristina E.; Tate, Eric

    2016-01-01

    Following severe flooding in 2008, three Iowa communities acquired over 1000 damaged properties to support disaster recovery and mitigation. This research applies a distributive justice framework to analyze the distribution of disaster recovery funds for property acquisition. Two research questions drive the analysis: (1) how does recovery vary by acquisition funding source; and (2) what is the relationship between recovery and vulnerable populations? Through spatial econometric modeling, relative recovery is compared between two federal programs that funded the acquisitions, and across socially vulnerable populations. The results indicate both distributive and temporal inequalities in the allocation of federal recovery funds. In particular, Latino and elderly populations were associated with lower recovery rates. Recommendations for future research in flood recovery and acquisitions are provided. PMID:27196921

  3. Two essays on real-time pricing of electric power

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gupta, Nainish Kumar

    1997-09-01

    This dissertation contains two essays on a new innovative pricing mechanism in the electric power industry known as Real Time Pricing (RTP). RTP is a method of pricing electric power wherein at least one component of the price is set at or near levels that reflect the marginal costs of providing power during each time-specific interval. These prices vary in accord with time-specific, incremental supplier costs. RTP allows customers to manage their own bills by adjusting their consumption as spot prices and supplier costs vary, which may amount during a single day from 2 cents to 85 cents for one kilowatt hour (kWh) of usage. Using 1995 data the hypothesis that industrial customers shift their usage patterns of electricity in response to real time prices is tested. To measure customer responsiveness to real time electric rates, econometric techniques are applied to estimate demand elasticities.

  4. Potential niche markets for biodiesel and their effects on agriculture

    SciTech Connect

    Raneses, A.R.; Glaser, L.K.; Price, J.M.

    1996-12-31

    This analysis estimates possible biodiesel demand in three niche markets the biodiesel industry has identified as likely candidates for commercialization: federal fleets, mining, and marine/estuary areas. If a 20-percent biodiesel blend becomes a competitive alternative fuel in the coming years, these markets could demand as much as 379 million liters (100 million gallons) of biodiesel. The Food and Agricultural Policy Simulator, an econometric model of U.S. agriculture, was used to estimate the impacts of 76, 193, and 379 million liters (20, 50, and 100 million gallons) of soybean-oil-based biodiesel production on the agricultural sector. The results indicate the effect of increased soybean oil demand on the soybean complex (beans, oil, and meal) and U.S. farm income would be small, but livestock producers and consumers could benefit from low meat prices.

  5. Famine Early Warning Systems and Their Use of Satellite Remote Sensing Data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Brown, Molly E.; Essam, Timothy; Leonard, Kenneth

    2011-01-01

    Famine early warning organizations have experience that has much to contribute to efforts to incorporate climate and weather information into economic and political systems. Food security crises are now caused almost exclusively by problems of food access, not absolute food availability, but the role of monitoring agricultural production both locally and globally remains central. The price of food important to the understanding of food security in any region, but it needs to be understood in the context of local production. Thus remote sensing is still at the center of much food security analysis, along with an examination of markets, trade and economic policies during food security analyses. Technology including satellite remote sensing, earth science models, databases of food production and yield, and modem telecommunication systems contributed to improved food production information. Here we present an econometric approach focused on bringing together satellite remote sensing and market analysis into food security assessment in the context of early warning.

  6. Risky Business and the American Climate Prospectus: Economic Risks of Climate Change in the United States"

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gordon, K.; Houser, T.; Kopp, R. E., III; Hsiang, S. M.; Larsen, K.; Jina, A.; Delgado, M.; Muir-Wood, R.; Rasmussen, D.; Rising, J.; Mastrandrea, M.; Wilson, P. S.

    2014-12-01

    The United States faces a range of economic risks from global climate change - from increased flooding and storm damage, to climate-driven changes in crop yields and labor productivity, to heat-related strains on energy and public health systems. The Risky Business Project commissioned a groundbreaking new analysis of these and other climate risks by region of the country and sector of the economy. The American Climate Prospectus (ACP) links state-of-the-art climate models with econometric research of human responses to climate variability and cutting edge private sector risk assessment tools, the ACP offers decision-makers a data driven assessment of the specific risks they face. We describe the challenge, methods, findings, and policy implications of the national risk analysis, with particular focus on methodological innovations and novel insights.

  7. A spatiotemporal analysis of aggregate labour force behaviour by sex and age across the European Union

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Elhorst, J. Paul

    2008-06-01

    This study investigates the causes of variation in age-specific male and female labour force participation rates using annual data from 154 regions across ten European Union member states for the period 1983-1997. Regional participation rates appear to be strongly correlated in time, weakly correlated in space and to parallel their national counterparts. An econometric model is designed consistent with these empirical findings. To control for potential endogeneity of the explanatory variables, we use an instrumental variables estimation scheme based on a matrix exponential spatial specification of the error terms. Many empirical studies of aggregate labour force behaviour have ignored population distribution effects, relying instead on the representative-agent paradigm. In order for representative-agent models to accurately describe aggregate behaviour, all marginal reactions of individuals to changes in aggregate variables must be identical. It turns out that this condition cannot apply to individuals across different sex/age groups.

  8. Investigation on Law and Economics Based on Complex Network and Time Series Analysis.

    PubMed

    Yang, Jian; Qu, Zhao; Chang, Hui

    2015-01-01

    The research focuses on the cooperative relationship and the strategy tendency among three mutually interactive parties in financing: small enterprises, commercial banks and micro-credit companies. Complex network theory and time series analysis were applied to figure out the quantitative evidence. Moreover, this paper built up a fundamental model describing the particular interaction among them through evolutionary game. Combining the results of data analysis and current situation, it is justifiable to put forward reasonable legislative recommendations for regulations on lending activities among small enterprises, commercial banks and micro-credit companies. The approach in this research provides a framework for constructing mathematical models and applying econometrics and evolutionary game in the issue of corporation financing.

  9. Modeling of gold production in Malaysia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Muda, Nora; Ainuddeen, Nasihah Rasyiqah; Ismail, Hamizun; Umor, Mohd Rozi

    2013-04-01

    This study was conducted to identify the main factors that contribute to the gold production and hence determine the factors that affect to the development of the mining industry in Malaysia. An econometric approach was used by performing the cointegration analysis among the factors to determine the existence of long term relationship between the gold prices, the number of gold mines, the number of workers in gold mines and the gold production. The study continued with the Granger analysis to determine the relationship between factors and gold production. Results have found that there are long term relationship between price, gold production and number of employees. Granger causality analysis shows that there is only one way relationship between the number of employees with gold production in Malaysia and the number of gold mines in Malaysia.

  10. How to Estimate the Value of Service Reliability Improvements

    SciTech Connect

    Sullivan, Michael J.; Mercurio, Matthew G.; Schellenberg, Josh A.; Eto, Joseph H.

    2010-06-08

    A robust methodology for estimating the value of service reliability improvements is presented. Although econometric models for estimating value of service (interruption costs) have been established and widely accepted, analysts often resort to applying relatively crude interruption cost estimation techniques in assessing the economic impacts of transmission and distribution investments. This paper first shows how the use of these techniques can substantially impact the estimated value of service improvements. A simple yet robust methodology that does not rely heavily on simplifying assumptions is presented. When a smart grid investment is proposed, reliability improvement is one of the most frequently cited benefits. Using the best methodology for estimating the value of this benefit is imperative. By providing directions on how to implement this methodology, this paper sends a practical, usable message to the industry.

  11. ESTIMATION OF FUNCTIONALS OF SPARSE COVARIANCE MATRICES.

    PubMed

    Fan, Jianqing; Rigollet, Philippe; Wang, Weichen

    High-dimensional statistical tests often ignore correlations to gain simplicity and stability leading to null distributions that depend on functionals of correlation matrices such as their Frobenius norm and other ℓ r norms. Motivated by the computation of critical values of such tests, we investigate the difficulty of estimation the functionals of sparse correlation matrices. Specifically, we show that simple plug-in procedures based on thresholded estimators of correlation matrices are sparsity-adaptive and minimax optimal over a large class of correlation matrices. Akin to previous results on functional estimation, the minimax rates exhibit an elbow phenomenon. Our results are further illustrated in simulated data as well as an empirical study of data arising in financial econometrics.

  12. Non-extensitivity vs. informative moments for financial models —A unifying framework and empirical results

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Herrmann, K.

    2009-11-01

    Information-theoretic approaches still play a minor role in financial market analysis. Nonetheless, there have been two very similar approaches evolving during the last years, one in the so-called econophysics and the other in econometrics. Both generalize the notion of GARCH processes in an information-theoretic sense and are able to capture kurtosis better than traditional models. In this article we present both approaches in a more general framework. The latter allows the derivation of a wide range of new models. We choose a third model using an entropy measure suggested by Kapur. In an application to financial market data, we find that all considered models - with similar flexibility in terms of skewness and kurtosis - lead to very similar results.

  13. The value of information as applied to the Landsat Follow-on benefit-cost analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wood, D. B.

    1978-01-01

    An econometric model was run to compare the current forecasting system with a hypothetical (Landsat Follow-on) space-based system. The baseline current system was a hybrid of USDA SRS domestic forecasts and the best known foreign data. The space-based system improved upon the present Landsat by the higher spatial resolution capability of the thematic mapper. This satellite system is a major improvement for foreign forecasts but no better than SRS for domestic forecasts. The benefit analysis was concentrated on the use of Landsat Follow-on to forecast world wheat production. Results showed that it was possible to quantify the value of satellite information and that there are significant benefits in more timely and accurate crop condition information.

  14. An autoregressive growth model for longitudinal item analysis.

    PubMed

    Jeon, Minjeong; Rabe-Hesketh, Sophia

    2016-09-01

    A first-order autoregressive growth model is proposed for longitudinal binary item analysis where responses to the same items are conditionally dependent across time given the latent traits. Specifically, the item response probability for a given item at a given time depends on the latent trait as well as the response to the same item at the previous time, or the lagged response. An initial conditions problem arises because there is no lagged response at the initial time period. We handle this problem by adapting solutions proposed for dynamic models in panel data econometrics. Asymptotic and finite sample power for the autoregressive parameters are investigated. The consequences of ignoring local dependence and the initial conditions problem are also examined for data simulated from a first-order autoregressive growth model. The proposed methods are applied to longitudinal data on Korean students' self-esteem.

  15. Properties of Zero-Free Transfer Function Matrices

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    D. O. Anderson, Brian; Deistler, Manfred

    Transfer functions of linear, time-invariant finite-dimensional systems with more outputs than inputs, as arise in factor analysis (for example in econometrics), have, for state-variable descriptions with generic entries in the relevant matrices, no finite zeros. This paper gives a number of characterizations of such systems (and indeed square discrete-time systems with no zeros), using state-variable, impulse response, and matrix-fraction descriptions. Key properties include the ability to recover the input values at any time from a bounded interval of output values, without any knowledge of an initial state, and an ability to verify the no-zero property in terms of a property of the impulse response coefficient matrices. Results are particularized to cases where the transfer function matrix in question may or may not have a zero at infinity or a zero at zero.

  16. Lévy walks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zaburdaev, V.; Denisov, S.; Klafter, J.

    2015-04-01

    Random walk is a fundamental concept with applications ranging from quantum physics to econometrics. Remarkably, one specific model of random walks appears to be ubiquitous across many fields as a tool to analyze transport phenomena in which the dispersal process is faster than dictated by Brownian diffusion. The Lévy-walk model combines two key features, the ability to generate anomalously fast diffusion and a finite velocity of a random walker. Recent results in optics, Hamiltonian chaos, cold atom dynamics, biophysics, and behavioral science demonstrate that this particular type of random walk provides significant insight into complex transport phenomena. This review gives a self-consistent introduction to Lévy walks, surveys their existing applications, including latest advances, and outlines further perspectives.

  17. Fuel economy rebound effect of U.S. household vehicles

    SciTech Connect

    Greene, D.L.; Kahn, J.R.; Gibson, R.C.

    1999-07-01

    This paper presents an econometric estimation of the rebound effect for household vehicle travel in the US based on analysis of survey data collected by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) at approximately three-year intervals over a 15-year period. The rebound effect measures the tendency to take back potential energy savings from fuel economy improvements as increased travel. Vehicle use models were estimated for one-, two-, three-, four-, and five-vehicle households. The results confirm recent estimates based on national or state-level data: a long-run take back of about 20% of potential energy savings. Consumer responses to changes in fuel economy or fuel price per gallon appear to be equal and opposite in sign. Recognizing the interdependencies among miles of travel, fuel economy and price is key to obtaining meaningful results.

  18. Approaches to nonlinear cointegration with a view towards applications in SHM

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cross, E. J.; Worden, K.

    2011-07-01

    One of the major problems confronting the application of Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) to real structures is that of divorcing the effect of environmental changes from those imposed by damage. A recent development in this area is the import of the technique of cointegration from the field of econometrics. While cointegration is a mature technology within economics, its development has been largely concerned with linear time-series analysis and this places a severe constraint on its application - particularly in the new context of SHM where damage can often make a given structure nonlinear. The objective of the current paper is to introduce two possible approaches to nonlinear cointegration: the first is an optimisation-based method; the second is a variation of the established Johansen procedure based on the use of an augmented basis. Finally, the ideas of nonlinear cointegration will be explored through application to real SHM data from the benchmark project on the Z24 Highway Bridge.

  19. Broader health coverage is good for the nation's health: evidence from country level panel data.

    PubMed

    Moreno-Serra, Rodrigo; Smith, Peter C

    2015-01-01

    Progress towards universal health coverage involves providing people with access to needed health services without entailing financial hardship and is often advocated on the grounds that it improves population health. The paper offers econometric evidence on the effects of health coverage on mortality outcomes at the national level. We use a large panel data set of countries, examined by using instrumental variable specifications that explicitly allow for potential reverse causality and unobserved country-specific characteristics. We employ various proxies for the coverage level in a health system. Our results indicate that expanded health coverage, particularly through higher levels of publicly funded health spending, results in lower child and adult mortality, with the beneficial effect on child mortality being larger in poorer countries.

  20. Kernel density estimation applied to bond length, bond angle, and torsion angle distributions.

    PubMed

    McCabe, Patrick; Korb, Oliver; Cole, Jason

    2014-05-27

    We describe the method of kernel density estimation (KDE) and apply it to molecular structure data. KDE is a quite general nonparametric statistical method suitable even for multimodal data. The method generates smooth probability density function (PDF) representations and finds application in diverse fields such as signal processing and econometrics. KDE appears to have been under-utilized as a method in molecular geometry analysis, chemo-informatics, and molecular structure optimization. The resulting probability densities have advantages over histograms and, importantly, are also suitable for gradient-based optimization. To illustrate KDE, we describe its application to chemical bond length, bond valence angle, and torsion angle distributions and show the ability of the method to model arbitrary torsion angle distributions.

  1. Paradoxical Behavior of Granger Causality

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Witt, Annette; Battaglia, Demian; Gail, Alexander

    2013-03-01

    Granger causality is a standard tool for the description of directed interaction of network components and is popular in many scientific fields including econometrics, neuroscience and climate science. For time series that can be modeled as bivariate auto-regressive processes we analytically derive an expression for spectrally decomposed Granger Causality (SDGC) and show that this quantity depends only on two out of four groups of model parameters. Then we present examples of such processes whose SDGC expose paradoxical behavior in the sense that causality is high for frequency ranges with low spectral power. For avoiding misinterpretations of Granger causality analysis we propose to complement it by partial spectral analysis. Our findings are illustrated by an example from brain electrophysiology. Finally, we draw implications for the conventional definition of Granger causality. Bernstein Center for Computational Neuroscience Goettingen

  2. Long-term U. S. energy outlook

    SciTech Connect

    Friesen, G.

    1984-01-01

    Each year Chase Econometrics offers its clients a brief summary of the assumptions underlying the long-term energy forecast for the U.S. To illustrate the uncertainty involved in forecasting for the period to the year 2000, they choose to compare forecasts with some recent projections prepared by the Department of Energy's Office of Policy, Planning and Analysis for the annual National Energy Policy Plan supplement. Particular emphasis is placed on Scenario B, which is the mid-range reference case. As the introduction to the supplement emphasizes, the NEPP projections should not be considered a statement of the policy goals of the Reagan Administration. They represent an analysis of the possible evolution of U.S. energy markets, given current information and existing policies. The purpose of providing Scenario B as a reference case as well as Scenarios A and C as alternate cases is to show the sensitivity of oil price projections to small swings in energy demand.

  3. Applying spatial epidemiology to hematological disease using R: a guide for hematologists and oncologists.

    PubMed

    Kohno, Kei; Narimatsu, Hiroto; Otani, Katsumi; Sho, Ri; Shiono, Yosuke; Suzuki, Ikuko; Kato, Yuichi; Fukao, Akira; Kato, Takeo

    2014-01-01

    "Spatial statistics" is an academic field that deals with the statistical analysis of spatial data, and has been applied to econometrics and various other policy fields. These methods are easily applied by hematologists and oncologists using better and much less expensive software. To encourage physicians to use these methods, this review introduces the methods and demonstrates the analyses using R and FleXScan, which can be freely downloaded from the website, with sample data. It is demonstrated that spatial analysis can be used by physicians to analyze hematological diseases. In addition, applying the technique presented to the investigation of patient prognoses may enable generation of data that are also useful for solving health policy-related problems, such as the optimal distribution of medical resources.

  4. Transfer Entropy as a Log-Likelihood Ratio

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barnett, Lionel; Bossomaier, Terry

    2012-09-01

    Transfer entropy, an information-theoretic measure of time-directed information transfer between joint processes, has steadily gained popularity in the analysis of complex stochastic dynamics in diverse fields, including the neurosciences, ecology, climatology, and econometrics. We show that for a broad class of predictive models, the log-likelihood ratio test statistic for the null hypothesis of zero transfer entropy is a consistent estimator for the transfer entropy itself. For finite Markov chains, furthermore, no explicit model is required. In the general case, an asymptotic χ2 distribution is established for the transfer entropy estimator. The result generalizes the equivalence in the Gaussian case of transfer entropy and Granger causality, a statistical notion of causal influence based on prediction via vector autoregression, and establishes a fundamental connection between directed information transfer and causality in the Wiener-Granger sense.

  5. FBST for Cointegration Problems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Diniz, M.; Pereira, C. A. B.; Stern, J. M.

    2008-11-01

    In order to estimate causal relations, the time series econometrics has to be aware of spurious correlation, a problem first mentioned by Yule [21]. To solve the problem, one can work with differenced series or use multivariate models like VAR or VEC models. In this case, the analysed series are going to present a long run relation i.e. a cointegration relation. Even though the Bayesian literature about inference on VAR/VEC models is quite advanced, Bauwens et al. [2] highlight that "the topic of selecting the cointegrating rank has not yet given very useful and convincing results." This paper presents the Full Bayesian Significance Test applied to cointegration rank selection tests in multivariate (VAR/VEC) time series models and shows how to implement it using available in the literature and simulated data sets. A standard non-informative prior is assumed.

  6. Cointegration as a data normalization tool for structural health monitoring applications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Harvey, Dustin Y.; Todd, Michael D.

    2012-04-01

    The structural health monitoring literature has shown an abundance of features sensitive to various types of damage in laboratory tests. However, robust feature extraction in the presence of varying operational and environmental conditions has proven to be one of the largest obstacles in the development of practical structural health monitoring systems. Cointegration, a technique adapted from the field of econometrics, has recently been introduced to the SHM field as one solution to the data normalization problem. Response measurements and feature histories often show long-run nonstationarity due to fluctuating temperature, load conditions, or other factors that leads to the occurrence of false positives. Cointegration theory allows nonstationary trends common to two or more time series to be modeled and subsequently removed. Thus, the residual retains sensitivity to damage with dependence on operational and environmental variability removed. This study further explores the use of cointegration as a data normalization tool for structural health monitoring applications.

  7. Forecasting carbon dioxide emissions.

    PubMed

    Zhao, Xiaobing; Du, Ding

    2015-09-01

    This study extends the literature on forecasting carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by applying the reduced-form econometrics approach of Schmalensee et al. (1998) to a more recent sample period, the post-1997 period. Using the post-1997 period is motivated by the observation that the strengthening pace of global climate policy may have been accelerated since 1997. Based on our parameter estimates, we project 25% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2050 according to an economic and population growth scenario that is more consistent with recent global trends. Our forecasts are conservative due to that we do not have sufficient data to fully take into account recent developments in the global economy.

  8. Using directed information for influence discovery in interconnected dynamical systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rao, Arvind; Hero, Alfred O.; States, David J.; Engel, James Douglas

    2008-08-01

    Structure discovery in non-linear dynamical systems is an important and challenging problem that arises in various applications such as computational neuroscience, econometrics, and biological network discovery. Each of these systems have multiple interacting variables and the key problem is the inference of the underlying structure of the systems (which variables are connected to which others) based on the output observations (such as multiple time trajectories of the variables). Since such applications demand the inference of directed relationships among variables in these non-linear systems, current methods that have a linear assumption on structure or yield undirected variable dependencies are insufficient. Hence, in this work, we present a methodology for structure discovery using an information-theoretic metric called directed time information (DTI). Using both synthetic dynamical systems as well as true biological datasets (kidney development and T-cell data), we demonstrate the utility of DTI in such problems.

  9. Simulating Quantile Models with Applications to Economics and Management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Machado, José A. F.

    2010-05-01

    The massive increase in the speed of computers over the past forty years changed the way that social scientists, applied economists and statisticians approach their trades and also the very nature of the problems that they could feasibly tackle. The new methods that use intensively computer power go by the names of "computer-intensive" or "simulation". My lecture will start with bird's eye view of the uses of simulation in Economics and Statistics. Then I will turn out to my own research on uses of computer- intensive methods. From a methodological point of view the question I address is how to infer marginal distributions having estimated a conditional quantile process, (Counterfactual Decomposition of Changes in Wage Distributions using Quantile Regression," Journal of Applied Econometrics 20, 2005). Illustrations will be provided of the use of the method to perform counterfactual analysis in several different areas of knowledge.

  10. Constructing 1/ωα noise from reversible Markov chains

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Erland, Sveinung; Greenwood, Priscilla E.

    2007-09-01

    This paper gives sufficient conditions for the output of 1/ωα noise from reversible Markov chains on finite state spaces. We construct several examples exhibiting this behavior in a specified range of frequencies. We apply simple representations of the covariance function and the spectral density in terms of the eigendecomposition of the probability transition matrix. The results extend to hidden Markov chains. We generalize the results for aggregations of AR1-processes of C. W. J. Granger [J. Econometrics 14, 227 (1980)]. Given the eigenvalue function, there is a variety of ways to assign values to the states such that the 1/ωα condition is satisfied. We show that a random walk on a certain state space is complementary to the point process model of 1/ω noise of B. Kaulakys and T. Meskauskas [Phys. Rev. E 58, 7013 (1998)]. Passing to a continuous state space, we construct 1/ωα noise which also has a long memory.

  11. Bubbles, shocks and elementary technical trading strategies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fry, John

    2014-01-01

    In this paper we provide a unifying framework for a set of seemingly disparate models for bubbles, shocks and elementary technical trading strategies in financial markets. Markets operate by balancing intrinsic levels of risk and return. This seemingly simple observation is commonly over-looked by academics and practitioners alike. Our model shares its origins in statistical physics with others. However, under our approach, changes in market regime can be explicitly shown to represent a phase transition from random to deterministic behaviour in prices. This structure leads to an improved physical and econometric model. We develop models for bubbles, shocks and elementary technical trading strategies. The list of empirical applications is both interesting and topical and includes real-estate bubbles and the on-going Eurozone crisis. We close by comparing the results of our model with purely qualitative findings from the finance literature.

  12. Factors Influencing Nutritional Adequacy among Rural Households in Nigeria: How Does Dietary Diversity Stand among Influencers?

    PubMed

    Akerele, D; Sanusi, R A; Fadare, O A; Ashaolu, O F

    2017-01-01

    This study examined the influence of food consumption diversity on adequate intakes of food calories, proteins and micronutrients among households in rural Nigeria within the framework of panel data econometrics using a nationally representative data. We found that substantial proportion of households suffered deficiency of calories, proteins and certain micronutrients; with higher percentage of sufferer households occurring in the post-planting season. The different measures of dietary diversity (constructed and used for analysis) consistently indicate significant and positive influence of dietary diversity on the likelihood of adequate consumption of food nutrients. While higher level of income, education and non-farm enterprise engagement may strongly stimulate adequate nutrient intakes, increases in the number of adolescents would substantially diminish it. Although our findings call for renewed attention on diet diverseness, we stress the complementary/synergistic roles of education and rural income improvement, especially through non-farm enterprise diversification in tackling multiple nutritional deficiencies in rural Nigeria.

  13. Aggregate vehicle travel forecasting model

    SciTech Connect

    Greene, D.L.; Chin, Shih-Miao; Gibson, R.

    1995-05-01

    This report describes a model for forecasting total US highway travel by all vehicle types, and its implementation in the form of a personal computer program. The model comprises a short-run, econometrically-based module for forecasting through the year 2000, as well as a structural, scenario-based longer term module for forecasting through 2030. The short-term module is driven primarily by economic variables. It includes a detailed vehicle stock model and permits the estimation of fuel use as well as vehicle travel. The longer-tenn module depends on demographic factors to a greater extent, but also on trends in key parameters such as vehicle load factors, and the dematerialization of GNP. Both passenger and freight vehicle movements are accounted for in both modules. The model has been implemented as a compiled program in the Fox-Pro database management system operating in the Windows environment.

  14. Increased reward value of non-social stimuli in children and adolescents with autism

    PubMed Central

    Watson, Karli K.; Miller, Stephanie; Hannah, Eleanor; Kovac, Megan; Damiano, Cara R.; Sabatino-DiCrisco, Antoinette; Turner-Brown, Lauren; Sasson, Noah J.; Platt, Michael L.; Dichter, Gabriel S.

    2015-01-01

    An econometric choice task was used to estimate the implicit reward value of social and non-social stimuli related to restricted interests in children and adolescents with (n = 12) and without (n = 22) autism spectrum disorder (ASD). Mixed effects logistic regression analyses revealed that groups differed in valuation of images related to restricted interests: control children were indifferent to cash payouts to view these images, but children with ASD were willing to receive less cash payout to view these images. Groups did not differ in valuation of social images or non-social images not related to restricted interests. Results highlight that motivational accounts of ASD should also consider the reward value of non-social stimuli related to restricted interests in ASD (Dichter and Adolphs, 2012). PMID:26257684

  15. Effect of farm management practices in the Bt toxin production by Bt cotton: evidence from farm fields in China.

    PubMed

    Huang, Jikun; Mi, Jianwei; Chen, Ruijian; Su, Honghua; Wu, Kongming; Qiao, Fangbin; Hu, Ruifa

    2014-06-01

    Based on farm field plot level survey data and laboratory test, we examine the determinants of the expression of Bt toxin in China's Bt cotton production. The results show that the expression of Bt toxin differs significantly among varieties. Even for the same variety the expression of Bt toxin also varies substantially among villages and among farmers in the same village. Econometric analyses show that after controlling for the effects of varieties and locations (or villages), farm management, particular applications of phosphate and potash fertilizers, and manure, has significant positive effects on Bt toxin expression in farmer's fields. In contrast to previous studies which showed that nitrogen fertilizer has a positive impact on expression of Bt toxin, this study shows that nitrogen fertilizer has no significant impact on expression of Bt toxin in farmer's fields. On the other hand, the expression of Bt toxin has a positive relationship with phosphate fertilizer, potash fertilizer and manure application.

  16. Turning points in international labor migration: a case study of Thailand.

    PubMed

    Vasuprasat, P

    1994-01-01

    "This article describes the dynamics of the structural transformation of the Thai economy, labor migration and direct foreign investment and proposes an econometric model to explain the migration phenomenon. Though migration shifts have been significantly influenced by political factors such as the Gulf crisis and tensions with Saudi Arabia, economic factors such as the Thai government's liberalization of markets and the expansion of trade and direct foreign investment have contributed to changes in labor market needs. The economic conditions of a shift from net exporter to net importer for labor are posited in the model. The empirical results reveal a turning point in labor migration from Thailand and also confirm the contribution of commodity export in place of labor export in creating employment and income."

  17. Integrating agricultural and forestry GHG mitigation responses into general economy frameworks: Developing a family of response functions

    SciTech Connect

    Gillig, Dhazn; McCarl, Bruce A.; Sands, Ronald D.

    2004-07-01

    An econometrically estimated family of response functions is developed for characterizing potential responses to greenhouse gas mitigation policies by the agriculture and forestry sectors. The response functions are estimated based on results of an agricultural/forestry sector model. They provide estimates of sequestration and emission reductions in forestry and agriculture along with levels of sectoral production, prices, welfare, and environmental attributes given a carbon price, levels of demand for agricultural goods, and the energy price. Six alternative mitigation policies representing types of greenhouse gas offsets allowed are considered. Results indicate that the largest quantity of greenhouse gas offset consistently appears with the mitigation policy that pays for all opportunities. Restricting carbon payments (emission tax or sequestration subsidy) only to aff/deforestation or only to agricultural sequestration substantially reduces potential mitigation. Higher carbon prices lead to more sequestration, less emissions, reduced consumer and total welfare, improved environmental indicators and increased producer welfare.

  18. Non performing loans (NPLs) in a crisis economy: Long-run equilibrium analysis with a real time VEC model for Greece (2001-2015)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Konstantakis, Konstantinos N.; Michaelides, Panayotis G.; Vouldis, Angelos T.

    2016-06-01

    As a result of domestic and international factors, the Greek economy faced a severe crisis which is directly comparable only to the Great Recession. In this context, a prominent victim of this situation was the country's banking system. This paper attempts to shed light on the determining factors of non-performing loans in the Greek banking sector. The analysis presents empirical evidence from the Greek economy, using aggregate data on a quarterly basis, in the time period 2001-2015, fully capturing the recent recession. In this work, we use a relevant econometric framework based on a real time Vector Autoregressive (VAR)-Vector Error Correction (VEC) model, which captures the dynamic interdependencies among the variables used. Consistent with international evidence, the empirical findings show that both macroeconomic and financial factors have a significant impact on non-performing loans in the country. Meanwhile, the deteriorating credit quality feeds back into the economy leading to a self-reinforcing negative loop.

  19. Impacts of Weather Shocks on Murder and Drug Cartel Violence in Mexico

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Miguel, E.; Hsiang, S. M.; Burke, M.; Gonzalez, F.; Baysan, C.

    2014-12-01

    We estimate impacts of weather shocks on several dimensions of violence in Mexico during 1990-2010, using disaggregated data at the state-by-month level. Controlling for location and time fixed effects, we show that higher than normal temperatures lead to: (i) higher total murder rates, (ii) higher rates of drug cartel related murders, and (iii) higher suicide rates. The effects of high temperatures on inter-personal violence (murders) and on inter-group violence (drug cartel related murders) are large, statistically significant and similar to those found in other recent settings. The use of panel data econometric methods to examine the effect of weather on suicide incidence is novel. We assess the role of economic channels (i.e., agricultural production affected by weather) and conclude that they cannot account for most of the estimated impacts, suggesting that other mechanisms, including psychological explanations, are likely to be important in this setting.

  20. General principles of institutional risks influence on pension systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nepp, A. N.; Shilkov, A. A.; Sheveleva, A. Y.; Mamedbakov, M. R.

    2016-12-01

    This paper examines the tools used to study the influence of institutional factors on investment returns. The research object are the tools used in the evaluation of institutional risks in the pension system, in particular, the correlation model of factors impacting on the `anti-director' index, econometric estimates combining the different determinants of savings, the model of endogenous institutional change, etc. Research work focusing on issues of institutional factors affecting pension systems (authored by La Porta, Guiso, Gianetti, El-Mekkaouide Freitas, Neyapti B., and others) is reviewed. The model is examined in terms of the impact of institutional risks on pension systems, especially with regard to the funded part. The study identified the following factors that affect financial institutions, including pension institutions: management quality, regulation quality, rule of law, political stability, and corruption control.

  1. Optional time-of-use prices for electricity: Analysis of PG&E`s experimental TOU rates. Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Train, K.; Mehrez, G.

    1992-07-01

    We examine customers` time-of-use (TOU) demand for electricity and their choice between standard and TOU rate schedules. We specify an econometric model in which the customer`s demand curves determine the customer`s choice of rate schedule. We estimate the model on data from Pacific Gas & Electric Company`s experiment with optional TOU prices in the residential sector. With the model, we compare the TOU consumption and price elasticities of customers who chose TOU rates with those who chose standard rates. We also estimate the impact of the TOU rates on the utility`s revenues and costs. The analysis suggests that the TOU rates offered under PG&E`s experiment decreased PG&E`s profits and hence contributed to higher general rate levels. The model can be used, however, to design optional TOU rates that increase profits and lower general rate levels.

  2. Optional time-of-use prices for electricity: Analysis of PG E's experimental TOU rates

    SciTech Connect

    Train, K.; Mehrez, G.

    1992-07-01

    We examine customers' time-of-use (TOU) demand for electricity and their choice between standard and TOU rate schedules. We specify an econometric model in which the customer's demand curves determine the customer's choice of rate schedule. We estimate the model on data from Pacific Gas Electric Company's experiment with optional TOU prices in the residential sector. With the model, we compare the TOU consumption and price elasticities of customers who chose TOU rates with those who chose standard rates. We also estimate the impact of the TOU rates on the utility's revenues and costs. The analysis suggests that the TOU rates offered under PG E's experiment decreased PG E's profits and hence contributed to higher general rate levels. The model can be used, however, to design optional TOU rates that increase profits and lower general rate levels.

  3. The relation between global migration and trade networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sgrignoli, Paolo; Metulini, Rodolfo; Schiavo, Stefano; Riccaboni, Massimo

    2015-01-01

    In this paper we develop a methodology to analyze and compare multiple global networks, focusing our analysis on the relation between human migration and trade. First, we identify the subset of products for which the presence of a community of migrants significantly increases trade intensity, where to assure comparability across networks we apply a hypergeometric filter that lets us identify those links which intensity is significantly higher than expected. Next, proposing a new way to define country neighbors based on the most intense links in the trade network, we use spatial econometrics techniques to measure the effect of migration on international trade, while controlling for network interdependences. Overall, we find that migration significantly boosts trade across countries and we are able to identify product categories for which this effect is particularly strong.

  4. 'Mommy, I miss daddy'. The effect of family structure on children's health in Brazil.

    PubMed

    Ayllón, Sara; Ferreira-Batista, Natalia N

    2015-12-01

    This paper studies the relationship between single motherhood and children's height-for-age z-scores in Brazil. In order to isolate the causal effect between family structure and children's condition, we estimate an econometric model that uses male preference for firstborn sons and local sex ratios to instrument the probability of a woman becoming a single mother. Our results have a local average treatment effect interpretation (LATE). We find that children being raised by a single mother (whose marital status is affected by a firstborn girl and a low sex ratio) have a height-for-age z-score that is lower than that of children of similar characteristics that cohabit with both progenitors. We claim that the increasing trend of single motherhood in Brazil should be of concern in health policy design.

  5. Estimating the Economic Value of Ice Climbing in Hyalite Canyon: An Application of Travel Cost Count Data Models that Account for Excess Zeros*

    PubMed Central

    Anderson, D. Mark

    2009-01-01

    Recently, the sport of ice climbing has seen a drastic increase in popularity. This paper uses the travel cost method to estimate the demand for ice climbing in Hyalite Canyon, Montana, one of the premier ice climbing venues in North America. Access to Hyalite and other ice climbing destinations have been put at risk due to liability issues, public land management agendas, and winter road conditions. To this point, there has been no analysis on the economic benefits of ice climbing. In addition to the novel outdoor recreation application, this study applies econometric methods designed to deal with “excess zeros” in the data. Depending upon model specification, per person per trip values are estimated to be in the range of $76 to $135. PMID:20044202

  6. Consumer Choice of E85 Denatured Ethanol Fuel Blend: Price Sensitivity and Cost of Limited Fuel Availability

    SciTech Connect

    Liu, Changzheng; Greene, David

    2014-12-01

    The promotion of greater use of E85, a fuel blend of 85% denatured ethanol, by flex-fuel vehicle owners is an important means of complying with the Renewable Fuel Standard 2. A good understanding of factors affecting E85 demand is necessary for effective policies that promote E85 and for developing models that forecast E85 sales in the United States. In this paper, the sensitivity of aggregate E85 demand to E85 and gasoline prices is estimated, as is the relative availability of E85 versus gasoline. The econometric analysis uses recent data from Minnesota, North Dakota, and Iowa. The more recent data allow a better estimate of nonfleet demand and indicate that the market price elasticity of E85 choice is substantially higher than previously estimated.

  7. New constraints in absorptive capacity and the optimum rate of petroleum output

    SciTech Connect

    El Mallakh, R

    1980-01-01

    Economic policy in four oil-producing countries is analyzed within a framework that combines a qualitative assessment of the policy-making process with an empirical formulation based on historical and current trends in these countries. The concept of absorptive capacity is used to analyze the optimum rates of petroleum production in Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait. A control solution with an econometric model is developed which is then modified for alternative development strategies based on analysis of factors influencing production decisions. The study shows the consistencies and inconsistencies between the goals of economic growth, oil production, and exports, and the constraints on economic development. Simulation experiments incorporated a number of the constraints on absorptive capacity. Impact of other constraints such as income distribution and political stability is considered qualitatively. (DLC)

  8. Why do vulnerability cycles matter in financial networks?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Silva, Thiago Christiano; Tabak, Benjamin Miranda; Guerra, Solange Maria

    2017-04-01

    We compare two widely employed models that estimate systemic risk: DebtRank and Differential DebtRank. We show that not only network cyclicality but also the average vulnerability of banks are essential concepts that contribute to widening the gap in the systemic risk estimates of both approaches. We find that systemic risk estimates are the same whenever the network has no cycles. However, in case the network presents cyclicality, then we need to inspect the average vulnerability of banks to estimate the underestimation gap. We find that the gap is small regardless of the cyclicality of the network when its average vulnerability is large. In contrast, the observed gap follows a quadratic behavior when the average vulnerability is small or intermediate. We show results using an econometric exercise and draw guidelines both on artificial and real-world financial networks.

  9. Consumer Choice of E85 Denatured Ethanol Fuel Blend: Price Sensitivity and Cost of Limited Fuel Availability

    DOE PAGES

    Liu, Changzheng; Greene, David

    2014-12-01

    The promotion of greater use of E85, a fuel blend of 85% denatured ethanol, by flex-fuel vehicle owners is an important means of complying with the Renewable Fuel Standard 2. A good understanding of factors affecting E85 demand is necessary for effective policies that promote E85 and for developing models that forecast E85 sales in the United States. In this paper, the sensitivity of aggregate E85 demand to E85 and gasoline prices is estimated, as is the relative availability of E85 versus gasoline. The econometric analysis uses recent data from Minnesota, North Dakota, and Iowa. The more recent data allowmore » a better estimate of nonfleet demand and indicate that the market price elasticity of E85 choice is substantially higher than previously estimated.« less

  10. 'Been there done that': disentangling option value effects from user heterogeneity when valuing natural resources with a use component.

    PubMed

    Lyssenko, Nikita; Martínez-Espiñeira, Roberto

    2012-11-01

    Endogeneity bias arises in contingent valuation studies when the error term in the willingness to pay (WTP) equation is correlated with explanatory variables because observable and unobservable characteristics of the respondents affect both their WTP and the value of those variables. We correct for the endogeneity of variables that capture previous experience with the resource valued, humpback whales, and with the geographic area of study. We consider several endogenous behavioral variables. Therefore, we apply a multivariate Probit approach to jointly model them with WTP. In this case, correcting for endogeneity increases econometric efficiency and substantially corrects the bias affecting the estimated coefficients of the experience variables, by isolating the decreasing effect on option value caused by having already experienced the resource. Stark differences are unveiled between the marginal effects on WTP of previous experience of the resource in an alternative location versus experience in the location studied, Newfoundland and Labrador (Canada).

  11. Diffusion on social networks: Survey data from rural villages in central China

    PubMed Central

    Xiong, Hang; Wang, Puqing; Zhu, Yueji

    2016-01-01

    Empirical studies on social diffusions are often restricted by the access to data of diffusion and social relations on the same objects. We present a set of first-hand data that we collected in ten rural villages in central China through household surveys. The dataset contains detailed and comprehensive data of the diffusion of an innovation, the major social relationships and the household level demographic characteristics in these villages. The data have been used to study peer effects in social diffusion using simulation models, “Peer Effects and Social Network: The Case of Rural Diffusion in Central China” [1]. They can also be used to estimate spatial econometric models. Data are supplied with this article. PMID:27054157

  12. Social comparison and subjective well-being: does the health of others matter?

    PubMed

    Carrieri, Vincenzo

    2012-01-01

    The importance of social comparison in shaping individual utility has been widely documented by subjective well-being literature. So far, income and unemployment have been the main dimensions considered in social comparison. This paper aims to investigate whether subjective well-being is influenced by inter-personal comparison with respect to health. Thus, we study the effects of the health of others and relative health hypotheses on two measures of subjective well-being: happiness and subjective health. Using data from the Italian Health Conditions survey, we show that a high incidence of chronic conditions and disability among reference groups negatively affects both happiness and subjective health. Such effects are stronger among people in the same condition. These results, robust to different econometric specifications and estimation techniques, suggest the presence of some sympathy in individual preferences with respect to health and reveal that other people's health status serves as a benchmark to assess one's own health condition.

  13. Is health care a necessary or luxury product for Asian countries? An answer using panel approach.

    PubMed

    Abdullah, S M; Siddiqua, Salina; Huque, Rumana

    2017-12-01

    A number of studies have estimated the income elasticity of health care expenditure to identify whether health care is a necessary or luxury product. However, the issue has received less attention in developing countries, especially in Asian economies. The current study for the first time has used the panel data covering 36 Asian countries for the period 1995-2013 for revealing the nature of health care as a product. Along with conventional econometric techniques we have addressed the issue of cross section dependence and used Westerlund (2007) panel cointegration test which is robust against cross section dependence and heterogeneity for detecting the presence of panel cointegration. By applying Fully Modified OLS (FMOLS) and Dynamic OLS (DOLS) it was found that the long run elasticity of Health Care Expenditure (HCE) with Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is less than unit implying that the health care can be regarded as necessary in nature for these countries.

  14. Benefits to world agriculture through remote sensing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Buffalano, A. C.; Kochanowski, P.

    1976-01-01

    Remote sensing of agricultural land permits crop classification and mensuration which can lead to improved forecasts of production. This technique is particularly important for nations which do not already have an accurate agricultural reporting system. Better forecasts have important economic effects. International grain traders can make better decisions about when to store, buy, and sell. Farmers can make better planting decisions by taking advantage of production estimates for areas out of phase with their own agricultural calendar. World economic benefits will accrue to both buyers and sellers because of increased food supply and price stabilization. This paper reviews the econometric models used to establish this scenario and estimates the dollar value of benefits for world wheat as 200 million dollars annually for the United States and 300 to 400 million dollars annually for the rest of the world.

  15. Economic considerations for bariatric surgery and morbid obesity

    PubMed Central

    Frezza, Eldo E; Wacthell, Mitchell; Ewing, Bradley

    2009-01-01

    The obesity epidemic is also an economic tragedy. This analysis evaluates the economic effects and the potential to improve the well-being of both individual and societal wealth. Econometric techniques should carefully assess the degree to which obesity affects declines in business output, employment, income, and tax revenues at the regional and national levels. Microeconomics assesses lost productivity and associated wages and profit. Macroeconomics assesses trends associated with employment, inflation, interest rates, money supply, and output. To decrease the adverse economic consequences of the obesity epidemic, policy makers must emphasize bariatric surgery as a cost-effective option for qualified patients. Early intervention, education, and tax rebates for obese individuals who undergo bariatric surgery and for medical centers and doctors would likely have positive economic effects on the whole economy in a few years. PMID:21935309

  16. How sustainable is government-sponsored desertification rehabilitation in China? Behavior of households to changes in environmental policies.

    PubMed

    Liu, Ning; Zhou, Lihua; Hauger, J Scott

    2013-01-01

    This paper undertakes a direct, comprehensive assessment of the long-term sustainability of desertification rehabilitation in China under a plausible but worst case scenario where governmental interventions, in the form of payments for environmental services (PES), will cease. The analysis is based on household behavior as well as experimental data. Our econometric results highlight the main obstacles to the sustainability of rehabilitation programs subsequent to cessation of government intervention, including specific shortfalls in households' preference for a free ride, budget constraints, attitudes, tolerance of and responsibility for desertification, and dissatisfaction with governmental actions. We conclude that desertification rehabilitation is not sustainable in China without continued governmental intervention. The results of this study are intended to support policy makers as they consider future directions for rehabilitation sustainability.

  17. Costa Rica's payment for environmental services program: intention, implementation, and impact.

    PubMed

    Sánchez-Azofeifa, G Arturo; Pfaff, Alexander; Robalino, Juan Andres; Boomhower, Judson P

    2007-10-01

    We evaluated the intention, implementation, and impact of Costa Rica's program of payments for environmental services (PSA), which was established in the late 1990s. Payments are given to private landowners who own land in forest areas in recognition of the ecosystem services their land provides. To characterize the distribution of PSA in Costa Rica, we combined remote sensing with geographic information system databases and then used econometrics to explore the impacts of payments on deforestation. Payments were distributed broadly across ecological and socioeconomic gradients, but the 1997-2000 deforestation rate was not significantly lower in areas that received payments. Other successful Costa Rican conservation policies, including those prior to the PSA program, may explain the current reduction in deforestation rates. The PSA program is a major advance in the global institutionalization of ecosystem investments because few, if any, other countries have such a conservation history and because much can be learned from Costa Rica's experiences.

  18. The effects of HIV/AIDS on economic growth and human capitals: a panel study evidence from Asian countries.

    PubMed

    Roy, Shongkour

    2014-01-01

    Human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immune deficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS) affects economic growths by reducing the human capitals are among the most poorly understood aspect of the AIDS epidemic. This article analyzes the effects of the prevalence of HIV and full-blown AIDS on a country's human capitals and economic growths. Using a fixed effect model for panel data 1990-2010 from the Asia, I explored the dynamic relationships among HIV/AIDS, economic growths, and human capitals within countries over time. The econometric effects concerned that HIV/AIDS plays an important role in the field of economic growths and it is measured as a change in real gross domestic product (GDP) per capita and human capitals. The modeling results for the Asian countries indicates HIV/AIDS prevalence that has a hurtful effect on GDP per capita by reducing human capitals within countries over time.

  19. Junior doctors' preferences for specialty choice.

    PubMed

    Sivey, Peter; Scott, Anthony; Witt, Julia; Joyce, Catherine; Humphreys, John

    2012-12-01

    A number of studies suggest that there is an over-supply of specialists and an under-supply of general practitioners in many developed countries. Previous econometric studies of specialty choice from the US suggest that although income plays a role, other non-pecuniary factors may be important. This paper presents a novel application of a choice experiment to identify the effects of expected future earnings and other attributes on specialty choice. We find the implied marginal wage estimated from our discrete choice model is close to the actual wages of senior specialists, but much higher than those of senior GPs. In a policy simulation we find that increasing GPs' earnings by $50,000, or increasing opportunities for procedural or academic work can increase the number of junior doctors choosing general practice by between 8 and 13 percentage points. The simulation implies an earnings elasticity of specialty choice of 0.95.

  20. ESTIMATION OF FUNCTIONALS OF SPARSE COVARIANCE MATRICES

    PubMed Central

    Fan, Jianqing; Rigollet, Philippe; Wang, Weichen

    2016-01-01

    High-dimensional statistical tests often ignore correlations to gain simplicity and stability leading to null distributions that depend on functionals of correlation matrices such as their Frobenius norm and other ℓr norms. Motivated by the computation of critical values of such tests, we investigate the difficulty of estimation the functionals of sparse correlation matrices. Specifically, we show that simple plug-in procedures based on thresholded estimators of correlation matrices are sparsity-adaptive and minimax optimal over a large class of correlation matrices. Akin to previous results on functional estimation, the minimax rates exhibit an elbow phenomenon. Our results are further illustrated in simulated data as well as an empirical study of data arising in financial econometrics. PMID:26806986

  1. Broader health coverage is good for the nation's health: evidence from country level panel data

    PubMed Central

    Moreno-Serra, Rodrigo; Smith, Peter C

    2015-01-01

    Progress towards universal health coverage involves providing people with access to needed health services without entailing financial hardship and is often advocated on the grounds that it improves population health. The paper offers econometric evidence on the effects of health coverage on mortality outcomes at the national level. We use a large panel data set of countries, examined by using instrumental variable specifications that explicitly allow for potential reverse causality and unobserved country-specific characteristics. We employ various proxies for the coverage level in a health system. Our results indicate that expanded health coverage, particularly through higher levels of publicly funded health spending, results in lower child and adult mortality, with the beneficial effect on child mortality being larger in poorer countries. PMID:25598588

  2. Asymptotic cost in document conversion

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Blostein, Dorothea; Nagy, George

    2012-01-01

    In spite of a hundredfold decrease in the cost of relevant technologies, the role of document image processing systems is gradually declining due to the transition to an on-line world. Nevertheless, in some high-volume applications, document image processing software still saves millions of dollars by accelerating workflow, and similarly large savings could be realized by more effective automation of the multitude of low-volume personal document conversions. While potential cost savings, based on estimates of costs and values, are a driving force for new developments, quantifying such savings is difficult. The most important trend is that the cost of computing resources for DIA is becoming insignificant compared to the associated labor costs. An econometric treatment of document processing complements traditional performance evaluation, which focuses on assessing the correctness of the results produced by document conversion software. Researchers should look beyond the error rate for advancing both production and personal document conversion.

  3. On the effect of prospective payment on local hospital competition in Germany.

    PubMed

    Herwartz, Helmut; Strumann, Christoph

    2012-03-01

    The introduction of prospective hospital reimbursement based on diagnosis related groups (DRG) in 2004 has been a conspicuous attempt to increase hospital efficiency in the German health sector. As a consequence of the reform a rise of competition for (low cost) patients could be expected. In this paper the competition between hospitals, quantified as spatial spillover estimates of hospital efficiency, is analyzed for periods before and after the reform. We implement a two-stage efficiency model that allows for spatial interdependence among hospitals. Hospital efficiency is determined by means of non-parametric and parametric econometric frontier models. We diagnose a significant increase of negative spatial spillovers characterizing hospital performance in Germany, and thus, confirm the expected rise of competition.

  4. The effect of cigarette taxes on smoking among men and women.

    PubMed

    Stehr, Mark

    2007-12-01

    The literature contains numerous studies that estimate the effect of cigarette taxes on smoking across various population groups. Although the conclusions are split, most US studies find that men are more responsive to cigarette taxes than women. This paper shows that these results are due to the failure to control for state-specific gender gaps in smoking rates that are correlated with cigarette taxes. When gender-specific state fixed effects are included to control for these gaps, the results indicate that women are nearly twice as responsive to cigarette taxes as are men. Since the econometric specification controls for variation in the tax response by household income, it is unlikely to be responsible for the difference.

  5. The impact of economic, political and social globalization on overweight and obesity in the 56 low and middle income countries

    PubMed Central

    Goryakin, Yevgeniy; Lobstein, Tim; James, W. Philip T.; Suhrcke, Marc

    2015-01-01

    Anecdotal and descriptive evidence has led to the claim that globalization plays a major role in inducing overweight and obesity in developing countries, but robust quantitative evidence is scarce. We undertook extensive econometric analyses of several datasets, using a series of new proxies for different dimensions of globalization potentially affecting overweight in up to 887,000 women aged 15–49 living in 56 countries between 1991 and 2009. After controlling for relevant individual and country level factors, globalization as a whole is substantially and significantly associated with an increase in the individual propensity to be overweight among women. Surprisingly, political and social globalization dominate the influence of the economic dimension. Hence, more consideration needs to be given to the forms of governance required to shape a more health-oriented globalization process. PMID:25841097

  6. Quantifying the Impact of Unavailability in Cyber-Physical Environments

    SciTech Connect

    Aissa, Anis Ben; Abercrombie, Robert K; Sheldon, Federick T.; Mili, Ali

    2014-01-01

    The Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) system discussed in this work manages a distributed control network for the Tunisian Electric & Gas Utility. The network is dispersed over a large geographic area that monitors and controls the flow of electricity/gas from both remote and centralized locations. The availability of the SCADA system in this context is critical to ensuring the uninterrupted delivery of energy, including safety, security, continuity of operations and revenue. Such SCADA systems are the backbone of national critical cyber-physical infrastructures. Herein, we propose adapting the Mean Failure Cost (MFC) metric for quantifying the cost of unavailability. This new metric combines the classic availability formulation with MFC. The resulting metric, so-called Econometric Availability (EA), offers a computational basis to evaluate a system in terms of the gain/loss ($/hour of operation) that affects each stakeholder due to unavailability.

  7. Modeling conflict : research methods, quantitative modeling, and lessons learned.

    SciTech Connect

    Rexroth, Paul E.; Malczynski, Leonard A.; Hendrickson, Gerald A.; Kobos, Peter Holmes; McNamara, Laura A.

    2004-09-01

    This study investigates the factors that lead countries into conflict. Specifically, political, social and economic factors may offer insight as to how prone a country (or set of countries) may be for inter-country or intra-country conflict. Largely methodological in scope, this study examines the literature for quantitative models that address or attempt to model conflict both in the past, and for future insight. The analysis concentrates specifically on the system dynamics paradigm, not the political science mainstream approaches of econometrics and game theory. The application of this paradigm builds upon the most sophisticated attempt at modeling conflict as a result of system level interactions. This study presents the modeling efforts built on limited data and working literature paradigms, and recommendations for future attempts at modeling conflict.

  8. Electricity generation modeling and photovoltaic forecasts in China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Shengnan

    With the economic development of China, the demand for electricity generation is rapidly increasing. To explain electricity generation, we use gross GDP, the ratio of urban population to rural population, the average per capita income of urban residents, the electricity price for industry in Beijing, and the policy shift that took place in China. Ordinary least squares (OLS) is used to develop a model for the 1979--2009 period. During the process of designing the model, econometric methods are used to test and develop the model. The final model is used to forecast total electricity generation and assess the possible role of photovoltaic generation. Due to the high demand for resources and serious environmental problems, China is pushing to develop the photovoltaic industry. The system price of PV is falling; therefore, photovoltaics may be competitive in the future.

  9. The Role of the Manufacturer in Air Transportation Planning

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mackenzie, J.

    1972-01-01

    The role of the aircraft manufacturer in the airline industry is considered. The process is illustrated by using a fictitious airline as an example--that is, a case study approach with Mid-Coast Airways serving as the example. Both in slide form and with supporting papers, a brief history of the airline, a description of its route structure and a forecast based on econometric analysis are presented. Once the forecast rationale is explained, information outlines the requirements for additional aircraft and the application of new aircraft across the system using alternative fleet plan options. The fleet plan is translated into financial summaries which indicate the relative merit of alternative aircraft types or operating plans.

  10. The impact of policy on hospital productivity: a time series analysis of Dutch hospitals.

    PubMed

    Blank, Jos L T; Eggink, Evelien

    2014-06-01

    The health care industry, in particular the hospital industry, is under an increasing degree of pressure, by an ageing population, advancing expensive medical technology a shrinking labor. The pressure on hospitals is further increased by the planned budget cuts in public spending by many current administrations as a result of the economic and financial crises. However, productivity increases may alleviate these problems. Therefore we study whether productivity in the hospital sector is growing, and whether this productivity growth can be influenced by government policy. Using an econometric time series analysis of the hospital sector in the Netherlands, productivity is estimated for the period 1972-2010. Then, productivity is linked to the different regulation regimes during that period, ranging from output funding in the 1970s to the current liberalized hospital market. The results indicate that the average productivity of the hospital sector in different periods differs and that these differences are related to the structure of regulation in those periods.

  11. Estimating the economic value of ice climbing in Hyalite Canyon: An application of travel cost count data models that account for excess zeros.

    PubMed

    Anderson, D Mark

    2010-01-01

    Recently, the sport of ice climbing has seen a dramatic increase in popularity. This paper uses the travel cost method to estimate the demand for ice climbing in Hyalite Canyon, Montana, one of the premier ice climbing venues in North America. Access to Hyalite and other ice climbing destinations have been put at risk due to liability issues, public land management agendas, and winter road conditions. To this point, there has been no analysis on the economic benefits of ice climbing. In addition to the novel outdoor recreation application, this study applies econometric methods designed to deal with "excess zeros" in the data. Depending upon model specification, per person per trip values are estimated to be in the range of $76 to $135.

  12. Quality safeguards and regulation of online pharmacies.

    PubMed

    Arruñada, Benito

    2004-04-01

    Using econometric evidence, this article confirms that distribution of medicines online is split into two market segments of very diverse quality, and identifies the factors that drive quality and quality assurance in this activity. Unlike fraudulent, 'rogue,' websites, which offer scant guarantees and usually sell just a few medicines without prescription, online pharmacies offering insurance coverage and linked to conventional pharmacies typically sell a whole range of drugs, require third-party medical prescriptions and provide abundant information to patients. It is shown that, where online pharmacies are allowed to act legally, market forces enhance quality, as private insurers require professional standards, and specialized third parties make a business of certifying them. Furthermore, older online pharmacies and those running conventional operations offer higher quality, probably because of reputational investments. Overall, this evidence supports licensing online pharmacies, especially considering that prohibiting them is ineffective against fraudulent sites.

  13. Cost of reducing carbon emissions in developing countries: Evidence from Columbia. Staff working paper No. 9

    SciTech Connect

    Linden, G.

    1993-06-01

    The author discusses the issue of the cost of reducing CO2 emissions related to the energy sector and the implications for the structure of the energy sector in Colombia. While there have been a number of attempts to estimate the costs of CO2 reduction in various developed countries such as the United States, there appears to be a lack of similar studies for developing countries. The analysis is based on optimizations using a comprehensive mathematical programming model of Colombia's energy sector in conjunction with an econometric model of the sector. Section one outlines the empirical methods used to analyze the energy/environmental linkages in Colombia. Section two summarizes the simulated results.

  14. Cognitive functioning and the probability of falls among seniors in Havana, Cuba.

    PubMed

    Trujillo, Antonio J; Hyder, Adnan A; Steinhardt, Laura C

    2011-01-01

    This article explores the connection between cognitive functioning and falls among seniors (> or = 60 years of age) in Havana, Cuba, after controlling for observable characteristics. Using the SABE (Salud, Bienestar, and Envejecimiento) cross-sectional database, we used an econometric strategy that takes advantage of available information to reduce the endogeneity problem of cognitive functioning and the individual probability of falling. Our findings suggest that memory scores and cognitive functioning impacts the probability of falling--even after controlling for demographics, socioeconomic status, existence of chronic non-communicable conditions, vision/ hearing capacity, and baseline health. Monitoring elderly with low cognitive functioning may be a cost-effective way to reduce the economic burden of falls.

  15. The long-run dynamic relationship between exchange rate and its attention index: Based on DCCA and TOP method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Xuan; Guo, Kun; Lu, Xiaolin

    2016-07-01

    The behavior information of financial market plays a more and more important role in modern economic system. The behavior information reflected in INTERNET search data has already been used in short-term prediction for exchange rate, stock market return, house price and so on. However, the long-run relationship between behavior information and financial market fluctuation has not been studied systematically. Further, most traditional statistic methods and econometric models could not catch the dynamic and non-linear relationship. An attention index of CNY/USD exchange rate is constructed based on search data from 360 search engine of China in this paper. Then the DCCA and Thermal Optimal Path methods are used to explore the long-run dynamic relationship between CNY/USD exchange rate and the corresponding attention index. The results show that the significant interdependency exists and the change of exchange rate is 1-2 days lag behind the attention index.

  16. Financial Constrains for Innovative Firms: The Role of Size, Industry and ICT Uses as Determinants of Firms' Financial Structure

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Castillo-Merino, David; Vilaseca-Requena, Jordi; Plana-Erta, Dolors

    This paper uses a large and original data set of Catalan firms in all the economic branches to analyse the effects of size, industry and degree of ICT uses on financial constraints for innovative firms. We have conducted a micro econometric analysis following Henry et al. (1999) investment model to empirically contrast the relationship between firms' investment spread over time and their financial structure, and we have used von Kalckreuth (2004) methodology, based on an original survey with data on financial issues. Our results show that it exits a positive and significant relationship between investment shift and financial structure, emerging financial constraints for more innovative firms. Furthermore, these constraints are higher for micro companies and firms within the knowledge-advanced services' industry. Finally, we have also found that advanced ICT uses by more innovative firms allow them to reduce constraints of access to sources of finance.

  17. National health expenditures: a global analysis.

    PubMed Central

    Murray, C. J.; Govindaraj, R.; Musgrove, P.

    1994-01-01

    As part of the background research to the World development report 1993: investing in health, an effort was made to estimate public, private and total expenditures on health for all countries of the world. Estimates could be found for public spending for most countries, but for private expenditure in many fewer countries. Regressions were used to predict the missing values of regional and global estimates. These econometric exercises were also used to relate expenditure to measures of health status. In 1990 the world spent an estimated US$ 1.7 trillion (1.7 x 10(12) on health, or $1.9 trillion (1.9 x 10(12)) in dollars adjusted for higher purchasing power in poorer countries. This amount was about 60% public and 40% private in origin. However, as incomes rise, public health expenditure tends to displace private spending and to account for the increasing share of incomes devoted to health. PMID:7923542

  18. Is obesity contagious? Social networks vs. environmental factors in the obesity epidemic.

    PubMed

    Cohen-Cole, Ethan; Fletcher, Jason M

    2008-09-01

    This note's aim is to investigate the sensitivity of Christakis and Fowler's claim [Christakis, N., Fowler, J., 2007. The spread of obesity in a large social network over 32 years. The New England Journal of Medicine 357, 370-379] that obesity has spread through social networks. It is well known in the economics literature that failure to include contextual effects can lead to spurious inference on "social network effects." We replicate the NEJM results using their specification and a complementary dataset. We find that point estimates of the "social network effect" are reduced and become statistically indistinguishable from zero once standard econometric techniques are implemented. We further note the presence of estimation bias resulting from use of an incorrectly specified dynamic model.

  19. Registered nurse turnover and the changing health care system.

    PubMed

    Jones, C B

    1996-01-01

    Changes in health care delivery and cyclic fluctuations in the registered nurse (RN) labor market affect health care costs, access, and quality. This study provides insight into one factor central to these issues, the job-change behavior of RNs. The theory of human capital provides the foundation to guide investigation, and econometric modeling is used to explore relationships among study variables. Model results show clear differences in job change behavior of nurses employed in hospital and nonhospital settings. These differences are a reflection, not only of individual nurse preferences, but also of wages, working conditions, and opportunities associated with various health care settings. Understanding these relationships is essential to leaders in the nursing profession as they plan for and respond to changes in health care delivery.

  20. Demand modelling of passenger air travel: An analysis and extension, volume 2

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jacobson, I. D.

    1978-01-01

    Previous intercity travel demand models in terms of their ability to predict air travel in a useful way and the need for disaggregation in the approach to demand modelling are evaluated. The viability of incorporating non-conventional factors (i.e. non-econometric, such as time and cost) in travel demand forecasting models are determined. The investigation of existing models is carried out in order to provide insight into their strong points and shortcomings. The model is characterized as a market segmentation model. This is a consequence of the strengths of disaggregation and its natural evolution to a usable aggregate formulation. The need for this approach both pedagogically and mathematically is discussed. In addition this volume contains two appendices which should prove useful to the non-specialist in the area.