The Space Tug economic analysis study - What we learned

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hopkins, C. V.

1975-01-01

This paper summarizes the scope, analytical methods, and principal findings of a recently performed Space-Tug economic analysis. Both the Shuttle/Tug transportation system and its unmanned payloads were modeled in this study. A variety of upper-stage concepts capable of fulfilling the Tug mission were evaluated against this model, and the 'best' Tug concepts were identified for a range of economic measures.

Mortality and economic instability: detailed analyses for Britain and comparative analyses for selected industrialized countries.

PubMed

Brenner, M H

1983-01-01

This paper discusses a first-stage analysis of the link of unemployment rates, as well as other economic, social and environmental health risk factors, to mortality rates in postwar Britain. The results presented represent part of an international study of the impact of economic change on mortality patterns in industrialized countries. The mortality patterns examined include total and infant mortality and (by cause) cardiovascular (total), cerebrovascular and heart disease, cirrhosis of the liver, and suicide, homicide and motor vehicle accidents. Among the most prominent factors that beneficially influence postwar mortality patterns in England/Wales and Scotland are economic growth and stability and health service availability. A principal detrimental factor to health is a high rate of unemployment. Additional factors that have an adverse influence on mortality rates are cigarette consumption and heavy alcohol use and unusually cold winter temperatures (especially in Scotland). The model of mortality that includes both economic changes and behavioral and environmental risk factors was successfully applied to infant mortality rates in the interwar period. In addition, the "simple" economic change model of mortality (using only economic indicators) was applied to other industrialized countries. In Canada, the United States, the United Kingdom, and Sweden, the simple version of the economic change model could be successfully applied only if the analysis was begun before World War II; for analysis beginning in the postwar era, the more sophisticated economic change model, including behavioral and environmental risk factors, was required. In France, West Germany, Italy, and Spain, by contrast, some success was achieved using the simple economic change model.

Evaluation of the mathematical and economic basis for conversion processes in the LEAP energy-economy model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oblow, E. M.

1982-10-01

An evaluation was made of the mathematical and economic basis for conversion processes in the Long-term Energy Analysis Program (LEAP) energy economy model. Conversion processes are the main modeling subunit in LEAP used to represent energy conversion industries and are supposedly based on the classical economic theory of the firm. Questions about uniqueness and existence of LEAP solutions and their relation to classical equilibrium economic theory prompted the study. An analysis of classical theory and LEAP model equations was made to determine their exact relationship. The conclusions drawn from this analysis were that LEAP theory is not consistent with the classical theory of the firm. Specifically, the capacity factor formalism used by LEAP does not support a classical interpretation in terms of a technological production function for energy conversion processes. The economic implications of this inconsistency are suboptimal process operation and short term negative profits in years where plant operation should be terminated. A new capacity factor formalism, which retains the behavioral features of the original model, is proposed to resolve these discrepancies.

Health economic assessment: a methodological primer.

PubMed

Simoens, Steven

2009-12-01

This review article aims to provide an introduction to the methodology of health economic assessment of a health technology. Attention is paid to defining the fundamental concepts and terms that are relevant to health economic assessments. The article describes the methodology underlying a cost study (identification, measurement and valuation of resource use, calculation of costs), an economic evaluation (type of economic evaluation, the cost-effectiveness plane, trial- and model-based economic evaluation, discounting, sensitivity analysis, incremental analysis), and a budget impact analysis. Key references are provided for those readers who wish a more advanced understanding of health economic assessments.

Health Economic Assessment: A Methodological Primer

PubMed Central

Simoens, Steven

2009-01-01

This review article aims to provide an introduction to the methodology of health economic assessment of a health technology. Attention is paid to defining the fundamental concepts and terms that are relevant to health economic assessments. The article describes the methodology underlying a cost study (identification, measurement and valuation of resource use, calculation of costs), an economic evaluation (type of economic evaluation, the cost-effectiveness plane, trial- and model-based economic evaluation, discounting, sensitivity analysis, incremental analysis), and a budget impact analysis. Key references are provided for those readers who wish a more advanced understanding of health economic assessments. PMID:20049237

The Development of a Model Design to Assess Instruction in Farm Management in Terms of Economic Returns and the Understanding of Economic Principles.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rolloff, John August

The records of 27 farm operators participating in farm business analysis programs in 5 Ohio schools were studied to develop and test a model for determining the influence of the farm business analysis phase of vocational agriculture instruction in farm management. Economic returns were measured as ratios between 1965 program inputs and outputs…

ECONOMIC GROWTH ANALYSIS SYSTEM: USER'S GUIDE VERSION 2.0

EPA Science Inventory

The two-volume report describes the development of and provides information needed to operate, the Economic Growth Analysis System (E-GAS) Version 2.0 model. The model will be used to project emissions inventories of volatile organic compounds (VOCs), oxides of nitrogen (NOx), a...

ECONOMIC GROWTH ANALYSIS SYSTEM: REFERENCE MANUAL VERSION 2.0

EPA Science Inventory

The two-volume report describes the development of and provides information needed to operate, the Economic Growth Analysis System (E-GAS) Version 2.0 model. The model will be used to project emissions inventories of volatile organic compounds (VOCs), oxides of nitrogen (NOx), a...

ECONOMIC GROWTH ANALYSIS SYSTEM: USER'S GUIDE - VERSION 3.0

EPA Science Inventory

The two-volume report describes the development of, and provides information needed to operate, the Economic Growth Analysis System (E-GAS) Version 3.0 model. The model will be used to project emissions inventories of volatile organic compounds, oxides of nitrogen, and carbon mon...

ECONOMIC GROWTH ANALYSIS SYSTEM: REFERENCE MANUAL VERSION 3.0

EPA Science Inventory

The two-volume report describes the development of, and provides information needed to operate, the Economic Growth Analysis System (E-GAS) Version 3.0 model. The model will be used to project emissions inventories of volatile organic compounds, oxides of nitrogen, and carbon mon...

Strategic and Market Analysis | Bioenergy | NREL

Science.gov Websites

recent efforts in comparative techno-economic analysis. Our analysis considers a wide range of conversion Intermediates NREL has developed first-of-its-kind process models and economic assessments of the co-processing work strives to understand the economic incentives, technical risks, and key data gaps that need to be

A reformulation of the Cost Plus Net Value Change (C+NVC) model of wildfire economics

Treesearch

Geoffrey H. Donovan; Douglas B. Rideout

2003-01-01

The Cost plus Net Value Change (C+NVC) model provides the theoretical foundation for wildland fire economics and provides the basis for the National Fire Management Analysis System (NFMAS). The C+NVC model is based on the earlier least Cost plus Loss model (LC+L) expressed by Sparhawk (1925). Mathematical and graphical analysis of the LC+L model illustrates two errors...

Los Alamos National Laboratory Economic Analysis Capability Overview

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Boero, Riccardo; Edwards, Brian Keith; Pasqualini, Donatella

Los Alamos National Laboratory has developed two types of models to compute the economic impact of infrastructure disruptions. FastEcon is a fast running model that estimates first-­order economic impacts of large scale events such as hurricanes and floods and can be used to identify the amount of economic activity that occurs in a specific area. LANL’s Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model estimates more comprehensive static and dynamic economic impacts of a broader array of events and captures the interactions between sectors and industries when estimating economic impacts.

An Economic Analysis of Investment in the United States Shipbuilding Industry

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-06-01

using U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) input/output data and the “Leontief inversion process” modeled at Carnegie Mellon University. This... modeled at Carnegie Mellon University. This sector was compared with five alternative investments. Second, the benefits of the shipyard-related...EIO-LCA Model ..................................39 2. Shipyard Direct Labor Trends .........................................................43 viii 3

Use of the World Model for Policy Analysis: Education and Labor Policy in the Mideast

DTIC Science & Technology

1977-03-01

most thorough analysis of the economic benefits of education which we have seen to date. They have indicated that the primary approaches in attempting...revealed by more detailed analysis of the economic and demographic data. Note that in Figure 15 economic growth in Iraq-Libya with restrictions on the...V. U S E O F TtRE WORLD -MODEL F R POLICY ANALYSIS : E•DUCATION AND LABOR POLICY IN T H E MI D EA S T Q 2 L ! • Qu ~ ~~-" "c’, • "" ". ’.-?c..’* ner

Abhijit Dutta | NREL

Science.gov Websites

Techno-economic analysis Process model development for existing and conceptual processes Detailed heat integration Economic analysis of integrated processes Integration of process simulation learnings into control ;Conceptual Process Design and Techno-Economic Assessment of Ex Situ Catalytic Fast Pyrolysis of Biomass: A

Kate Anderson | NREL

Science.gov Websites

private entities with techno-economic modeling and analysis, field assessments, design, and implementation Force. Research Interests Energy optimization Techno-economic modeling Value of resiliency Solar+storage -Resilient Solar Project: Economic and Resiliency Impact of PV and Storage on New York Critical

When does ecological sustainability ensure economic sustainability? An integrated analysis of thresholds in semi-arid western rangelands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cobourn, K. M.; Peckham, S. D.

2011-12-01

The vulnerability of agri-environmental systems to ecological threshold events depends on the combined influence of economic factors and natural drivers, such as climate and disturbance. This analysis builds an integrated ecologic-economic model to evaluate the behavioral response of agricultural producers to changing and uncertain natural conditions. The model explicitly reflects the effect of producer behavior on the likelihood of a threshold event that threatens the ecological and/or economic sustainability of the agri-environmental system. The foundation of the analysis is a threshold indicator that incorporates the population dynamics of a species that supports economic production and an episodic disturbance regime-in this case rangeland grass that is grazed by livestock and is subject to wildfire. This ecological indicator is integrated into an economic model in which producers choose grazing intensity given the state of the grass population and a set of economic parameters. We examine two model variants that characterize differing economic circumstances. The first characterizes the optimal grazing regime assuming that the system is managed by a single planner whose objective is to maximize the aggregate long-run returns of producers in the system. The second examines the case in which individual producers choose their own stocking rates in order to maximize their private economic benefit. The results from the first model variant illustrate the difference between an ecologic and an economic threshold. Failure to cross an ecological threshold does not necessarily ensure that the system remains economically viable: Economic sustainability, defined as the ability of the system to support optimal production into the infinite future, requires that the net growth rate of the supporting population exceeds the level required for ecological sustainability by an amount that depends on the market price of livestock and grazing efficiency. The results from the second model variant define the circumstances under which a system that is otherwise ecologically sustainable is driven over a threshold by the actions of economic agents. The difference between the two model solutions identifies bounds between which the viability of livestock production over the long-run is uncertain and depends upon the policy setting in which the agri-environmental system operates.

Economic analysis and assessment of syngas production using a modeling approach

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kim, Hakkwan; Parajuli, Prem B.; Yu, Fei

Economic analysis and modeling are essential and important issues for the development of current feedstock and process technology for bio-gasification. The objective of this study was to develop an economic model and apply to predict the unit cost of syngas production from a micro-scale bio-gasification facility. An economic model was programmed in C++ computer programming language and developed using a parametric cost approach, which included processes to calculate the total capital costs and the total operating costs. The model used measured economic data from the bio-gasification facility at Mississippi State University. The modeling results showed that the unit cost ofmore » syngas production was $1.217 for a 60 Nm-3 h-1 capacity bio-gasifier. The operating cost was the major part of the total production cost. The equipment purchase cost and the labor cost were the largest part of the total capital cost and the total operating cost, respectively. Sensitivity analysis indicated that labor costs rank the top as followed by equipment cost, loan life, feedstock cost, interest rate, utility cost, and waste treatment cost. The unit cost of syngas production increased with the increase of all parameters with exception of loan life. The annual cost regarding equipment, labor, feedstock, waste treatment, and utility cost showed a linear relationship with percent changes, while loan life and annual interest rate showed a non-linear relationship. This study provides the useful information for economic analysis and assessment of the syngas production using a modeling approach.« less

An Idealized Cognitive Model Analysis of Metaphors in American Economic News Report

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qin, Yang

2018-03-01

On the basis of the theoretical framework of Lakoff’s Conceptual Metaphor, the paper researches into the cognitive model of conceptual metaphors in American Economic News Reports. Moreover, the paper tries to analyze economic discourse by the application of Idealized Cognitive Model of its metaphorical thinking combined with cultural model and reflect the ideology of the media. It aims to help English learners ponder the implied meaning the economic news reports conveyed and take a new look at metaphors between the lines.

Geothermal Impact Analysis | Geothermal Technologies | NREL

Science.gov Websites

on potential geothermal growth scenarios, jobs and economic impacts, clean energy manufacturing geothermal resources. We: Perform resource analysis Develop techno-economic models Quantify environmental growth scenarios across multiple market sectors. Learn more about the GeoVision Study. Jobs and Economic

Jennifer N. Markham | NREL

Science.gov Websites

-economic analysis Algae cultivation and separation Biomass conversion to fuels and higher values products economic modeling Discounted cash flow rate of return (DCFROR) Capital expenses Operating expense Education ;Techno-Economic Analysis for Upgrading Normal-Butanol to Jet and Hydrocarbon Fuel," presented at

Wind Energy Conversion System Analysis Model (WECSAM) computer program documentation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Downey, W. T.; Hendrick, P. L.

1982-07-01

Described is a computer-based wind energy conversion system analysis model (WECSAM) developed to predict the technical and economic performance of wind energy conversion systems (WECS). The model is written in CDC FORTRAN V. The version described accesses a data base containing wind resource data, application loads, WECS performance characteristics, utility rates, state taxes, and state subsidies for a six state region (Minnesota, Michigan, Wisconsin, Illinois, Ohio, and Indiana). The model is designed for analysis at the county level. The computer model includes a technical performance module and an economic evaluation module. The modules can be run separately or together. The model can be run for any single user-selected county within the region or looped automatically through all counties within the region. In addition, the model has a restart capability that allows the user to modify any data-base value written to a scratch file prior to the technical or economic evaluation.

Sensitivity analysis of key components in large-scale hydroeconomic models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Medellin-Azuara, J.; Connell, C. R.; Lund, J. R.; Howitt, R. E.

2008-12-01

This paper explores the likely impact of different estimation methods in key components of hydro-economic models such as hydrology and economic costs or benefits, using the CALVIN hydro-economic optimization for water supply in California. In perform our analysis using two climate scenarios: historical and warm-dry. The components compared were perturbed hydrology using six versus eighteen basins, highly-elastic urban water demands, and different valuation of agricultural water scarcity. Results indicate that large scale hydroeconomic hydro-economic models are often rather robust to a variety of estimation methods of ancillary models and components. Increasing the level of detail in the hydrologic representation of this system might not greatly affect overall estimates of climate and its effects and adaptations for California's water supply. More price responsive urban water demands will have a limited role in allocating water optimally among competing uses. Different estimation methods for the economic value of water and scarcity in agriculture may influence economically optimal water allocation; however land conversion patterns may have a stronger influence in this allocation. Overall optimization results of large-scale hydro-economic models remain useful for a wide range of assumptions in eliciting promising water management alternatives.

Philipp Beiter | NREL

Science.gov Websites

the Strategic Energy Analysis Center. Areas of Expertise Cost modeling and economic analysis of , 2011 Prior Work Experience Junior Policy Analyst, Organization for Economic Co-operation and . Smith. 2017. An Assessment of the Economic Potential of Offshore Wind in the United States from 2015 to

Curriculum for the Twenty-First Century: Recent Advances in Economic Theory and Undergraduate Economics

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ferguson, William D.

2011-01-01

Undergraduate economics lags behind cutting-edge economic theory. The author briefly reviews six related advances that profoundly extend and deepen economic analysis: game-theoretic modeling, collective-action problems, information economics and contracting, social preference theory, conceptualizing rationality, and institutional theory. He offers…

The RTOG Outcomes Model: economic end points and measures.

PubMed

Konski, Andre; Watkins-Bruner, Deborah

2004-03-01

Recognising the value added by economic evaluations of clinical trials and the interaction of clinical, humanistic and economic end points, the Radiation Therapy Oncology Group (RTOG) has developed an Outcomes Model that guides the comprehensive assessment of this triad of end points. This paper will focus on the economic component of the model. The Economic Impact Committee was founded in 1994 to study the economic impact of clinical trials of cancer care. A steep learning curve ensued with considerable time initially spent understanding the methodology of economic analysis. Since then, economic analyses have been performed on RTOG clinical trials involving treatments for patients with non-small cell lung cancer, locally-advanced head and neck cancer and prostate cancer. As the care of cancer patients evolves with time, so has the economic analyses performed by the Economic Impact Committee. This paper documents the evolution of the cost-effectiveness analyses of RTOG from performing average cost-utility analysis to more technically sophisticated Monte Carlo simulation of Markov models, to incorporating prospective economic analyses as an initial end point. Briefly, results indicated that, accounting for quality-adjusted survival, concurrent chemotherapy and radiation for the treatment of non-small cell lung cancer, more aggressive radiation fractionation schedules for head and neck cancer and the addition of hormone therapy to radiation for prostate cancer are within the range of economically acceptable recommendations. The RTOG economic analyses have provided information that can further inform clinicians and policy makers of the value added of new or improved treatments.

Economic Analysis of Biological Invasions in Forests

Treesearch

Tomas P. Holmes; Julian Aukema; Jeffrey Englin; Robert G. Haight; Kent Kovacs; Brian Leung

2014-01-01

Biological invasions of native forests by nonnative pests result from complex stochastic processes that are difficult to predict. Although economic optimization models describe efficient controls across the stages of an invasion, the ability to calibrate such models is constrained by lack of information on pest population dynamics and consequent economic damages. Here...

A Model of Economics Learning in the High Schools.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Walstad, William B.; Soper, John C.

1982-01-01

Reports the results of a study that evaluated the impact of the Developmental Economic Education Project (DEEP) and the International Paper Company (IPCF) awards program for teaching economics on high school student cognitive and affective outcomes. A description of the theoretical model used for the analysis is included. (AM)

The different modes of hydro-economic analysis (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harou, J. J.; Binions, O.; Erfani, T.

2013-12-01

In the face of growing water demands, climate change and spatial and temporal water access variability, accurately assessing the economic impacts of proposed water resource management changes is useful. The objective of this project funded by UK Water Industry Research was to present and demonstrate a framework for identifying and using the ';value of water' to enable water utilities and their regulators to make better decisions. A hydro-economic model can help evaluate water management options in terms of their hydrological and economic impact at different locations throughout a catchment over time. In this talk we discuss three modes in which hydro-economic models can be implemented: evaluative, behavioral and prescriptive. In evaluation mode economic water demand and benefit functions are used to post-process water resource management model results to assess the economic impacts (over space and time) of a policy under consideration. In behavioral hydro-economic models users are represented as agents and the economics is used to help predict their actions. In prescriptive mode optimization is used to find the most economically efficient management actions such as allocation patterns or source selection. These three types of hydro-economic analysis are demonstrated on a UK watershed (Great River Ouse) that includes 97 different water abstractors from amongst the public water supply, agriculture, industry and energy plant cooling sectors. The following issues under dry and normal historical conditions were investigated: Supply/demand investment planning, societal cost of environmental flows, water market prices, and scarcity-sensitive charges for water rights. The talk discusses which hydro-economic modeling mode is used to study each of these issues and why; example results are shown and discussed. The topic of how hydro-economic models can be built and deployed effectively is covered along with how existing water utility operational and planning tools can be converted into hydro-economic models.

Economic Analysis. Computer Simulation Models.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sterling Inst., Washington, DC. Educational Technology Center.

A multimedia course in economic analysis was developed and used in conjunction with the United States Naval Academy. (See ED 043 790 and ED 043 791 for final reports of the project evaluation and development model.) This volume of the text discusses the simulation of behavioral relationships among variable elements in an economy and presents…

Modeling imbalanced economic recovery following a natural disaster using input-output analysis.

PubMed

Li, Jun; Crawford-Brown, Douglas; Syddall, Mark; Guan, Dabo

2013-10-01

Input-output analysis is frequently used in studies of large-scale weather-related (e.g., Hurricanes and flooding) disruption of a regional economy. The economy after a sudden catastrophe shows a multitude of imbalances with respect to demand and production and may take months or years to recover. However, there is no consensus about how the economy recovers. This article presents a theoretical route map for imbalanced economic recovery called dynamic inequalities. Subsequently, it is applied to a hypothetical postdisaster economic scenario of flooding in London around the year 2020 to assess the influence of future shocks to a regional economy and suggest adaptation measures. Economic projections are produced by a macro econometric model and used as baseline conditions. The results suggest that London's economy would recover over approximately 70 months by applying a proportional rationing scheme under the assumption of initial 50% labor loss (with full recovery in six months), 40% initial loss to service sectors, and 10-30% initial loss to other sectors. The results also suggest that imbalance will be the norm during the postdisaster period of economic recovery even though balance may occur temporarily. Model sensitivity analysis suggests that a proportional rationing scheme may be an effective strategy to apply during postdisaster economic reconstruction, and that policies in transportation recovery and in health care are essential for effective postdisaster economic recovery. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

Solar energy system economic evaluation: IBM System 4, Clinton, Mississippi

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1980-01-01

An economic analysis of the solar energy system was developed for five sites, typical of a wide range of environmental and economic conditions in the continental United States. The analysis was based on the technical and economic models in the F-chart design procedure, with inputs based on the characteristic of the installed system and local conditions. The results are of the economic parameters of present worth of system cost over a 20 year time span: life cycle savings, year of positive savings and year of payback for the optimized solar energy system at each of the analysis sites. The sensitivity of the economic evaluation to uncertainties in constituent system and economic variables is also investigated.

Household economic modelsof gill net fishermen at Madura strait

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Primyastanto, M.

2018-04-01

The purposes of this research was to analyze household economic models of gill net fishermen at Madura strait. 30 families of gillnet fishermenwere used for purposive sampling. Data analysis used descriptive qualitative and quantitative (regression analysis). Quantitative descriptive analysis was used to analyze research and compare to factors that affecting household economic models of gill net fishermen family. Research results showed tha thousehold economic models of gill net fishermen at Madura strait was production value level or fishermen revenue at sea was strongly influenced byp roduction asset production, education level, fuel, and work flow. Work flow rate of fishermen families affected by asset production, non fisheries workflow and number of male workforce. Non fishing income level was strongly influenced by non-fishery business assets, number of family members owned andnon-fishing work flow. Spending levels of gill net fishermen at Madura strait was affected by fishing income, non-fishing income, fishermen wife education and fishermen family members.

Application of economic impact analysis to a local public health agency and its "Academic Health Department".

PubMed

Livingood, Wiliiam C; Coughlin, Susan; Bowman, Walter; Bryant, Thomas; Goldhagen, Jeffrey

2007-01-01

Public health systems are stressed by increasing demands and inadequate resources. This study was designed to demonstrate how economic impact analysis can estimate the economic value of a local public health system's infrastructure as well as the economic assets of an "Academic Health Department" model. This study involved the secondary analysis of publicly available data on health department finances and employment using proprietary software specifically designed to assess economic impacts. The health department's impact on the local community was estimated at over 100 million dollars, exceeding the economic impact of other recently studied local industries with no additional costs to local taxpayers.

Using whole disease modeling to inform resource allocation decisions: economic evaluation of a clinical guideline for colorectal cancer using a single model.

PubMed

Tappenden, Paul; Chilcott, Jim; Brennan, Alan; Squires, Hazel; Glynne-Jones, Rob; Tappenden, Janine

2013-06-01

To assess the feasibility and value of simulating whole disease and treatment pathways within a single model to provide a common economic basis for informing resource allocation decisions. A patient-level simulation model was developed with the intention of being capable of evaluating multiple topics within National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence's colorectal cancer clinical guideline. The model simulates disease and treatment pathways from preclinical disease through to detection, diagnosis, adjuvant/neoadjuvant treatments, follow-up, curative/palliative treatments for metastases, supportive care, and eventual death. The model parameters were informed by meta-analyses, randomized trials, observational studies, health utility studies, audit data, costing sources, and expert opinion. Unobservable natural history parameters were calibrated against external data using Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. Economic analysis was undertaken using conventional cost-utility decision rules within each guideline topic and constrained maximization rules across multiple topics. Under usual processes for guideline development, piecewise economic modeling would have been used to evaluate between one and three topics. The Whole Disease Model was capable of evaluating 11 of 15 guideline topics, ranging from alternative diagnostic technologies through to treatments for metastatic disease. The constrained maximization analysis identified a configuration of colorectal services that is expected to maximize quality-adjusted life-year gains without exceeding current expenditure levels. This study indicates that Whole Disease Model development is feasible and can allow for the economic analysis of most interventions across a disease service within a consistent conceptual and mathematical infrastructure. This disease-level modeling approach may be of particular value in providing an economic basis to support other clinical guidelines. Copyright © 2013 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The Rising Influence of China in West Africa: Analysis of the Effects on Economic Development, Governance and Security

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-06-10

largest number of developing countries‖ (Alden et al. 2008). With a peaceful approach, in opposition to the colonialist models , China took the role of...social and economic revolution. Indeed, many ordinary Africans have been captured by the idea of China as a model for economic development. Despite the...discuss the influence of China on other sectors of activities in West African countries. Definitions Beijing Consensus: It is another model of economic

Cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT) in heart failure--a model to assess the economic value of this new medical technology.

PubMed

Banz, Kurt

2005-01-01

This article describes the framework of a comprehensive European model developed to assess clinical and economic outcomes of cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT) versus optimal pharmacological therapy (OPT) alone in patients with heart failure. The model structure is based on information obtained from the literature, expert opinion, and a European CRT Steering Committee. The decision-analysis tool allows a consideration of direct medical and indirect costs, and computes outcomes for distinctive periods of time up to 5 years. Qualitative data can also be entered for cost-utility analysis. Model input data for a preliminary economic appraisal of the economic value of CRT in Germany were obtained from clinical trials, experts, health statistics, and medical tariff lists. The model offers comprehensive analysis capabilities and high flexibility so that it can easily be adapted to any European country or special setting. The illustrative analysis for Germany indicates that CRT is a cost-effective intervention. Although CRT is associated with average direct medical net costs of Euro 5880 per patient, this finding means that 22% of its upfront implantation cost is recouped already within 1 year because of significantly decreased hospitalizations. With 36,600 Euros the incremental cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained is below the euro equivalent (41,300 Euros, 1 Euro = US1.21 dollars) of the commonly used threshold level of US50,000 dollars considered to represent cost-effectiveness. The sensitivity analysis showed these preliminary results to be fairly robust towards changes in key assumptions. The European CRT model is an important tool to assess the economic value of CRT in patients with moderate to severe heart failure. In the light of the planned introduction of Diagnosis Related Group (DRG) based reimbursement in various European countries, the economic data generated by the model can play an important role in the decision-making process.

Life cycle cost analysis of a stand-alone PV system in rural Kenya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Daly, Emma

The purpose of this quantitative research study was to determine the economic feasibility of a stand-alone PV system to electrify a rural area in Kenya. The research conducted involved a comprehensive review of all the relevant literature associated with the study. Methodologies were extrapolated from this extensive literature to develop a model for the complete design and economic analysis of a stand-alone PV system. A women's center in rural Kenya was used as a worked example to demonstrate the workings of the model. The results suggest that electrifying the center using a stand-alone PV system is an economically viable option which is encouraging for the surrounding area. This model can be used as a business model to determine the economic feasibility of a stand-alone PV system in alternative sites in Kenya.

Economic analysis of light brown apple moth using GIS and quantitative modeling

Treesearch

Glenn Fowler; Lynn Garrett; Alison Neeley; Roger Magarey; Dan Borchert; Brian Spears

2011-01-01

We conducted an economic analysis of the light brown apple moth (LBAM), (piphyas postvittana (Walker)), whose presence in California has resulted in a regulatory program. Our objective was to quantitatively characterize the economic costs to apple, grape, orange, and pear crops that would result from LBAM's introduction into the continental...

The 1997 IDA Cost Research Symposium.

DTIC Science & Technology

1997-07-01

Office/Organization Abbreviation Representative Office of the Director, Program Analysis and Evaluation Army Cost and Economic Analysis Center Naval...Robert Young NCCA Dr. Dan Nussbaum AFCAA COL Edward Weeks AMCRM Mr. Wayne Wesson ATAAC Mr. Russell F. Feury SSDC Ms. Carolyn S. Thompson ATCOM Mr...development by the RAND Corporation, an Army model developed by the Army Cost and Economic Analysis Center, and three models developed by the Institute for

Female Anxiety and Male Depression: Links between Economic Strain and Psychological Aggression in Argentinean Couples

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Falconier, Mariana K.

2010-01-01

A dyadic model of economic strain was applied to the study of anxiety and depression as mediating mechanisms in the economic strain-psychological aggression relation. Data came from self-report questionnaires completed by 143 Argentinean clinical couples. Structural equation modeling analysis indicated that anxiety and depression increased for…

Understanding and modeling the economics of ECM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wells, Wayne E.; Edinbarough, Immanuel A.

2004-12-01

Traditional economic analysis methods for manufacturing decisions include only the clearly identified immediate cost and revenue streams. Environmental issues have generally been seen as costs, in the form of waste material losses, conformance tests and pre-discharge treatments. The components of the waste stream often purchased as raw materials, become liabilities at the "end of the pipe" and their intrinsic material value is seldom recognized. A new mathematical treatment of manufacturing economics is proposed in which the costs of separation are compared with the intrinsic value of the waste materials to show how their recovery can provide an economic advantage to the manufacturer. The model is based on a unique combination of thermodynamic analysis, economic modeling and linear optimization. This paper describes the proposed model, and examines case studies in which the changed decision rules have yielded significant savings while protecting the environment. The premise proposed is that by including the value of the waste materials in the profit objective of the firm and applying the appropriate technological solution, manufacturing processes can become closed systems in which losses approach zero and environmental problems are converted into economic savings.

Enterprise Pattern: integrating the business process into a unified enterprise model of modern service company

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Ying; Luo, Zhiling; Yin, Jianwei; Xu, Lida; Yin, Yuyu; Wu, Zhaohui

2017-01-01

Modern service company (MSC), the enterprise involving special domains, such as the financial industry, information service industry and technology development industry, depends heavily on information technology. Modelling of such enterprise has attracted much research attention because it promises to help enterprise managers to analyse basic business strategies (e.g. the pricing strategy) and even optimise the business process (BP) to gain benefits. While the existing models proposed by economists cover the economic elements, they fail to address the basic BP and its relationship with the economic characteristics. Those proposed in computer science regardless of achieving great success in BP modelling perform poorly in supporting the economic analysis. Therefore, the existing approaches fail to satisfy the requirement of enterprise modelling for MSC, which demands simultaneous consideration of both economic analysing and business processing. In this article, we provide a unified enterprise modelling approach named Enterprise Pattern (EP) which bridges the gap between the BP model and the enterprise economic model of MSC. Proposing a language named Enterprise Pattern Description Language (EPDL) covering all the basic language elements of EP, we formulate the language syntaxes and two basic extraction rules assisting economic analysis. Furthermore, we extend Business Process Model and Notation (BPMN) to support EPDL, named BPMN for Enterprise Pattern (BPMN4EP). The example of mobile application platform is studied in detail for a better understanding of EPDL.

Future costs in cost effectiveness analysis.

PubMed

Lee, Robert H

2008-07-01

This paper resolves several controversies in CEA. Generalizing [Garber, A.M., Phelps, C.E., 1997. Economic foundations of cost-effectiveness analysis. Journal of Health Economics 16 (1), 1-31], the paper shows accounting for unrelated future costs distorts decision making. After replicating [Meltzer, D., 1997. Accounting for future costs in medical cost-effectiveness analysis. Journal of Health Economics 16 (1), 33-64] quite different conclusion that unrelated future costs should be included in CEA, the paper shows that Meltzer's findings result from modeling the budget constraint as an annuity, which is problematic. The paper also shows that related costs should be included in CEA. This holds for a variety of models, including a health maximization model. CEA should treat costs in the manner recommended by Garber and Phelps.

Land-use change in oil palm dominated tropical landscapes-An agent-based model to explore ecological and socio-economic trade-offs.

PubMed

Dislich, Claudia; Hettig, Elisabeth; Salecker, Jan; Heinonen, Johannes; Lay, Jann; Meyer, Katrin M; Wiegand, Kerstin; Tarigan, Suria

2018-01-01

Land-use changes have dramatically transformed tropical landscapes. We describe an ecological-economic land-use change model as an integrated, exploratory tool used to analyze how tropical land-use change affects ecological and socio-economic functions. The model analysis seeks to determine what kind of landscape mosaic can improve the ensemble of ecosystem functioning, biodiversity, and economic benefit based on the synergies and trade-offs that we have to account for. More specifically, (1) how do specific ecosystem functions, such as carbon storage, and economic functions, such as household consumption, relate to each other? (2) How do external factors, such as the output prices of crops, affect these relationships? (3) How do these relationships change when production inefficiency differs between smallholder farmers and learning is incorporated? We initialize the ecological-economic model with artificially generated land-use maps parameterized to our study region. The economic sub-model simulates smallholder land-use management decisions based on a profit maximization assumption. Each household determines factor inputs for all household fields and decides on land-use change based on available wealth. The ecological sub-model includes a simple account of carbon sequestration in above-ground and below-ground vegetation. We demonstrate model capabilities with results on household consumption and carbon sequestration from different output price and farming efficiency scenarios. The overall results reveal complex interactions between the economic and ecological spheres. For instance, model scenarios with heterogeneous crop-specific household productivity reveal a comparatively high inertia of land-use change. Our model analysis even shows such an increased temporal stability in landscape composition and carbon stocks of the agricultural area under dynamic price trends. These findings underline the utility of ecological-economic models, such as ours, to act as exploratory tools which can advance our understanding of the mechanisms underlying the trade-offs and synergies of ecological and economic functions in tropical landscapes.

Land-use change in oil palm dominated tropical landscapes—An agent-based model to explore ecological and socio-economic trade-offs

PubMed Central

Dislich, Claudia; Hettig, Elisabeth; Heinonen, Johannes; Lay, Jann; Meyer, Katrin M.; Wiegand, Kerstin; Tarigan, Suria

2018-01-01

Land-use changes have dramatically transformed tropical landscapes. We describe an ecological-economic land-use change model as an integrated, exploratory tool used to analyze how tropical land-use change affects ecological and socio-economic functions. The model analysis seeks to determine what kind of landscape mosaic can improve the ensemble of ecosystem functioning, biodiversity, and economic benefit based on the synergies and trade-offs that we have to account for. More specifically, (1) how do specific ecosystem functions, such as carbon storage, and economic functions, such as household consumption, relate to each other? (2) How do external factors, such as the output prices of crops, affect these relationships? (3) How do these relationships change when production inefficiency differs between smallholder farmers and learning is incorporated? We initialize the ecological-economic model with artificially generated land-use maps parameterized to our study region. The economic sub-model simulates smallholder land-use management decisions based on a profit maximization assumption. Each household determines factor inputs for all household fields and decides on land-use change based on available wealth. The ecological sub-model includes a simple account of carbon sequestration in above-ground and below-ground vegetation. We demonstrate model capabilities with results on household consumption and carbon sequestration from different output price and farming efficiency scenarios. The overall results reveal complex interactions between the economic and ecological spheres. For instance, model scenarios with heterogeneous crop-specific household productivity reveal a comparatively high inertia of land-use change. Our model analysis even shows such an increased temporal stability in landscape composition and carbon stocks of the agricultural area under dynamic price trends. These findings underline the utility of ecological-economic models, such as ours, to act as exploratory tools which can advance our understanding of the mechanisms underlying the trade-offs and synergies of ecological and economic functions in tropical landscapes. PMID:29351290

Examining the feasibility of an economic analysis of dyadic developmental psychotherapy for children with maltreatment associated psychiatric problems in the United Kingdom.

PubMed

Boyer, Nicole R S; Boyd, Kathleen A; Turner-Halliday, Fiona; Watson, Nicholas; Minnis, Helen

2014-12-10

Children with maltreatment associated psychiatric problems are at increased risk of developing behavioural or mental health disorders. Dyadic Developmental Psychotherapy (DDP) was proposed as treatment for children with maltreatment histories in the USA, however, being new to the UK little is known of its effectiveness or cost-effectiveness. As part of an exploratory study, this paper explores the feasibility of undertaking economic analysis of DDP in the UK. Feasibility for economic analysis was determined by ensuring such analysis could meet key criteria for economic evaluation. Phone interviews were conducted with professionals (therapists trained and accredited or in the process of becoming accredited DDP practitioners). Three models were developed to represent alternative methods of DDP service delivery. Once appropriate comparators were determined, economic scenarios were constructed. Cost analyses were undertaken from a societal perspective. Finally, appropriate outcome measurement was explored through clinical opinion, literature and further discussions with clinical experts. Three DDP models were constructed: DDP Full-Basic, DDP Home-Based and DDP Long-Term. Two potential comparator interventions were identified and defined as Consultation with Carers and Individual Psychotherapy. Costs of intervention completion per case were estimated to be: £6,700 (DDP Full-Basic), £7,100 (Consultations with Carers), £7,200 (DDP Home-Based), £11,400 (Individual Psychotherapy) and £14,500 (DDP Long-Term). None of the models of service delivery were found to currently measure effectiveness consistently. The Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire (SDQ) was deemed an appropriate primary outcome measure, however, it does not cover all disorders DDP intends to treat and the SDQ is not a direct measure of health gain. Inclusion of quality of life measurement is required for comprehensive economic analysis. Economic analysis of DDP in the UK is feasible if vital next steps are taken to measure intervention outcomes consistently, ideally with a quality of life measurement. An economic analysis using the models constructed could determine the potential cost-effectiveness of DDP in the UK and identify the most efficient mode of service delivery.

Modeling Joint Climate and Bioenergy Policies: Challenges of integrating economic and environmental data. (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hellwinckel, C. M.; West, T. O.; de La Torre Ugarte, D.; Perlack, R.

2010-12-01

In the coming decades agriculture will be asked to play a significant role in reducing carbon emissions and reducing our use of foreign oil. The Renewable Fuels Standard combined with possible climate legislation will alter the economic landscape effecting agricultural land use decisions. The joint implementation of these two policies could potentially work against one another. We have integrated biogeophysical data into the POLYSYS economic model to analyze the effects of climate change and bioenergy legislation upon regional land-use change, soil carbon, carbon emissions, biofuel production, and agricultural income. The purpose of the analysis was to use the integrated model to identify carbon and bioenergy policies that could act synergistically to meet Renewable Fuel Standard goals, reduce net emissions of carbon, and increase agricultural incomes. The heterogeneous nature of soils, crop yields, and management practices presented challenges to the modeling process. Regional variation in physical data can significantly affect economic land use decisions and patterns. For this reason, we disaggregated the economic component of the model to the county level, with sub-county soils and land-use data informing the county level decisions. Modeling carbon offset dynamics presented unique challenges, as the physical responses of local soils impact the economic incentives offered, and conversely, the resulting land-use changes impact characteristics of local soils. Additionally, using data from different resolution levels led to questions of appropriate scale of analysis. This presentation will describe the integrated model, present some significant results from our analysis, and discuss appropriate steps forward given what we learned.

Coupled socioeconomic-crop modelling for the participatory local analysis of climate change impacts on smallholder farmers in Guatemala

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malard, J. J.; Adamowski, J. F.; Wang, L. Y.; Rojas, M.; Carrera, J.; Gálvez, J.; Tuy, H. A.; Melgar-Quiñonez, H.

2015-12-01

The modelling of the impacts of climate change on agriculture requires the inclusion of socio-economic factors. However, while cropping models and economic models of agricultural systems are common, dynamically coupled socio-economic-biophysical models have not received as much success. A promising methodology for modelling the socioeconomic aspects of coupled natural-human systems is participatory system dynamics modelling, in which stakeholders develop mental maps of the socio-economic system that are then turned into quantified simulation models. This methodology has been successful in the water resources management field. However, while the stocks and flows of water resources have also been represented within the system dynamics modelling framework and thus coupled to the socioeconomic portion of the model, cropping models are ill-suited for such reformulation. In addition, most of these system dynamics models were developed without stakeholder input, limiting the scope for the adoption and implementation of their results. We therefore propose a new methodology for the analysis of climate change variability on agroecosystems which uses dynamically coupled system dynamics (socio-economic) and biophysical (cropping) models to represent both physical and socioeconomic aspects of the agricultural system, using two case studies (intensive market-based agricultural development versus subsistence crop-based development) from rural Guatemala. The system dynamics model component is developed with relevant governmental and NGO stakeholders from rural and agricultural development in the case study regions and includes such processes as education, poverty and food security. Common variables with the cropping models (yield and agricultural management choices) are then used to dynamically couple the two models together, allowing for the analysis of the agroeconomic system's response to and resilience against various climatic and socioeconomic shocks.

Modeling uncertainties in workforce disruptions from influenza pandemics using dynamic input-output analysis.

PubMed

El Haimar, Amine; Santos, Joost R

2014-03-01

Influenza pandemic is a serious disaster that can pose significant disruptions to the workforce and associated economic sectors. This article examines the impact of influenza pandemic on workforce availability within an interdependent set of economic sectors. We introduce a simulation model based on the dynamic input-output model to capture the propagation of pandemic consequences through the National Capital Region (NCR). The analysis conducted in this article is based on the 2009 H1N1 pandemic data. Two metrics were used to assess the impacts of the influenza pandemic on the economic sectors: (i) inoperability, which measures the percentage gap between the as-planned output and the actual output of a sector, and (ii) economic loss, which quantifies the associated monetary value of the degraded output. The inoperability and economic loss metrics generate two different rankings of the critical economic sectors. Results show that most of the critical sectors in terms of inoperability are sectors that are related to hospitals and health-care providers. On the other hand, most of the sectors that are critically ranked in terms of economic loss are sectors with significant total production outputs in the NCR such as federal government agencies. Therefore, policy recommendations relating to potential mitigation and recovery strategies should take into account the balance between the inoperability and economic loss metrics. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

Solar energy system economic evaluation final report for SEMCO-Loxahatchee, Loxahatchee National Wildlife refuge, Palm Beach County, Florida

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1980-01-01

Economic analysis of the solar energy system installed at Loxahatchee, was developed for Loxahatchee and four other sites typical of a wide range of environmental and economic conditions in the continental United States. This analysis was accomplished based on the technical and economic models in the f Chart design procedure with inputs based on the characteristics of the installed system and local conditions. The results are expressed in terms of the economic parameters of present worth of system costs over a projected twenty year life, life cycle savings, year of positive savings and year of payback for the optimized solar energy system at each of the analysis sites. The sensitivity of the economic evaluation to uncertainties in constituent system and economic variables was also investigated. The results demonstrate that the solar energy system is economically viable at all of the five sites for which the analysis was conducted.

Solar energy system economic evaluation: IBM System 2, Togus, Maine

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1980-01-01

The economic analysis of the solar energy system, is developed for Torgus and four other sites typical of a wide range of environmental and economic conditions in the continental United States. This analysis is accomplished based on the technical and economic models in the f-chart design procedure with inputs taken on the characteristics of the installed system and local conditions. The results are expressed in terms of the economic parameters of present worth of system cost over a projected twenty year life, life cycle savings, year of positive savings and year of payback for the optimized solar energy system at each of the analysis sites. The sensitivity of the economic evaluation to uncertainties in constituent system and economic variables is also investigated. Results demonstrate that the solar energy system is economically viable at all of the five sites for which the analysis was conducted.

Assessing the economic impacts of drought from the perspective of profit loss rate: a case study of the sugar industry in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Y.; Lin, L.; Chen, H.

2015-02-01

Natural disasters have enormous impacts on human society, especially on the development of the economy. To support decision making in mitigation and adaption to natural disasters, assessment of economic impacts is fundamental and of great significance. Based on a review of the literature of economic impact evaluation, this paper proposes a new assessment model of economic impact from drought by using the sugar industry in China as a case study, which focuses on the generation and transfer of economic impacts along a simple value chain involving only sugarcane growers and a sugar producing company. A perspective of profit loss rate is applied to scale economic impact with a model based on cost-and-benefit analysis. By using analysis of "with-and-without", profit loss is defined as the difference in profits between disaster-hit and disaster-free scenarios. To calculate profit, analysis on a time series of sugar price is applied. With the support of a linear regression model, an endogenous trend in sugar price is identified, and the time series of sugar price "without" disaster is obtained using an autoregressive error model to separate impact by disasters from the internal trend in sugar price. Unlike the settings in other assessment models, representative sugar prices, which represent value level in disaster-free condition and disaster-hit condition, are integrated from a long time series that covers the whole period of drought. As a result, it is found that in a rigid farming contract, sugarcane growers suffer far more than the sugar company when impacted by severe drought, which may promote the reflections on economic equality among various economic bodies at the occurrence of natural disasters.

Analysis of economic benefit of wind power based on system dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Weibo; Han, Yaru; Niu, Dongxiao

2018-04-01

The scale of renewable power generation, such as wind power, has increased gradually in recent years. Considering that the economic benefits of wind farms are affected by many dynamic factors. The dynamic simulation model of wind power economic benefit system is established based on the system dynamics method. By comparing the economic benefits of wind farms under different setting scenarios through this model, the impact of different factors on the economic benefits of wind farms can be reflected.

A practical model for economic evaluation of tissue-engineered therapies.

PubMed

Tan, Tien-En; Peh, Gary S L; Finkelstein, Eric A; Mehta, Jodhbir S

2015-01-01

Tissue-engineered therapies are being developed across virtually all fields of medicine. Some of these therapies are already in clinical use, while others are still in clinical trials or the experimental phase. Most initial studies in the evaluation of new therapies focus on demonstration of clinical efficacy. However, cost considerations or economic viability are just as important. Many tissue-engineered therapies have failed to be impactful because of shortcomings in economic competitiveness, rather than clinical efficacy. Furthermore, such economic viability studies should be performed early in the process of development, before significant investment has been made. Cost-minimization analysis combined with sensitivity analysis is a useful model for the economic evaluation of new tissue-engineered therapies. The analysis can be performed early in the development process, and can provide valuable information to guide further investment and research. The utility of the model is illustrated with the practical real-world example of tissue-engineered constructs for corneal endothelial transplantation. The authors have declared no conflicts of interest for this article. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Economic indicators selection for crime rates forecasting using cooperative feature selection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alwee, Razana; Shamsuddin, Siti Mariyam Hj; Salleh Sallehuddin, Roselina

2013-04-01

Features selection in multivariate forecasting model is very important to ensure that the model is accurate. The purpose of this study is to apply the Cooperative Feature Selection method for features selection. The features are economic indicators that will be used in crime rate forecasting model. The Cooperative Feature Selection combines grey relational analysis and artificial neural network to establish a cooperative model that can rank and select the significant economic indicators. Grey relational analysis is used to select the best data series to represent each economic indicator and is also used to rank the economic indicators according to its importance to the crime rate. After that, the artificial neural network is used to select the significant economic indicators for forecasting the crime rates. In this study, we used economic indicators of unemployment rate, consumer price index, gross domestic product and consumer sentiment index, as well as data rates of property crime and violent crime for the United States. Levenberg-Marquardt neural network is used in this study. From our experiments, we found that consumer price index is an important economic indicator that has a significant influence on the violent crime rate. While for property crime rate, the gross domestic product, unemployment rate and consumer price index are the influential economic indicators. The Cooperative Feature Selection is also found to produce smaller errors as compared to Multiple Linear Regression in forecasting property and violent crime rates.

Economics of liquid hydrogen from water electrolysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lin, F. N.; Moore, W. I.; Walker, S. W.

1985-01-01

An economical model for preliminary analysis of LH2 cost from water electrolysis is presented. The model is based on data from vendors and open literature, and is suitable for computer analysis of different scenarios for 'directional' purposes. Cost data associated with a production rate of 10,886 kg/day are presented. With minimum modification, the model can also be used to predict LH2 cost from any electrolyzer once the electrolyzer's cost data are available.

Forest economics, natural disturbances and the new ecology

Treesearch

Thomas P. Holmes; Robert J. Huggett; John M. Pye

2008-01-01

The major thesis of this chapter is that the economic analysis of forest disturbances will be enhanced by linking economic and ecologic models. Although we only review a limited number of concepts drawn generally from mathematical and empirical ecology, the overarching theme we present is that ecological models of forest disturbance processes are complex and not...

The Measurement of Economic Well-Being in Need Analysis Models. ACT Research Report No. 66.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Goggin, W. J.

The equitable distribution of aid funds is viewed in this paper as a problem in taxation according to ability to pay or economic well-being. This approach is emphasized because it is fruitful to consider the various financial need analysis models as systems of taxation that result in the parents' expected contribution to the postsecondary…

Science and Society Test VI: Energy Economics.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hafemeister, David W.

1982-01-01

Develops simple numerical estimates to quantify a variety of energy economics issues, including among others, a modified Verhulst equation (considers effect of finite resources on petroleum) for supply/demand economics and a phenomenological model for market penetration also presents an analysis of economic returns of an energy conservation…

Solar energy system economic evaluation for Seeco Lincoln, Lincoln, Nebraska

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1980-01-01

The economic analysis of the solar energy system that was installed at Lincoln, Nebraska is developed for this and four other sites typical of a wide range of environmental and economic conditions in the continental United States. This analysis is accomplished based on the technical and economic models in the f chart design procedure with inputs based on the characteristics of the installed system and local conditions. The results are expressed in terms of the economic parameters of present worth of system cost over projected twenty year life: life cycle savings, year of positive savings and year of payback for the optimized solar energy system at each of the analysis sites. The sensitivity of the economic evaluation to uncertainties in constituent system and economic variables is also investigated.

Assessing the economic impacts of drought from the perspective of profit loss rate: a case study of the sugar industry in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Y.; Lin, L.; Chen, H.

2015-07-01

Natural disasters have enormous impacts on human society, especially on the development of the economy. To support decision-making in mitigation and adaption to natural disasters, assessment of economic impacts is fundamental and of great significance. Based on a review of the literature on economic impact evaluation, this paper proposes a new assessment model of the economic impacts of droughts by using the sugar industry in China as a case study, which focuses on the generation and transfer of economic impacts along a simple value chain involving only sugarcane growers and a sugar-producing company. A perspective of profit loss rate is applied to scale economic impact. By using "with and without" analysis, profit loss is defined as the difference in profits between disaster-hit and disaster-free scenarios. To calculate profit, analysis of a time series of sugar price is applied. With the support of a linear regression model, an endogenous trend in sugar price is identified and the time series of sugar price "without" disaster is obtained, using an autoregressive error model to separate impact of disasters from the internal trend in sugar price. Unlike the settings in other assessment models, representative sugar prices, which represent value level in disaster-free conditions and disaster-hit conditions, are integrated from a long time series that covers the whole period of drought. As a result, it is found that in a rigid farming contract, sugarcane growers suffer far more than the sugar company when impacted by severe drought, which may promote reflections among various economic bodies on economic equality related to the occurrence of natural disasters. Further, sensitivity analysis of the model built reveals that sugarcane purchase price has a significant influence on profit loss rate, which implies that setting a proper sugarcane purchase price would be an effective way of realizing economic equality in future practice of contract farming.

An Economic Analysis and Approach for Health Care Preparedness in a Substate Region.

PubMed

Stryckman, Benoit; Grace, Thomas L; Schwarz, Peter; Marcozzi, David

2015-08-01

To demonstrate the application of economics to health care preparedness by estimating the financial return on investment in a substate regional emergency response team and to develop a financial model aimed at sustaining community-level disaster readiness. Economic evaluation methods were applied to the experience of a regional Pennsylvania response capability. A cost-benefit analysis was performed by using information on funding of the response team and 17 real-world events the team responded to between 2008 and 2013. By use of the results of the cost-benefit analysis as well as information on the response team's catchment area, a risk-based insurance-like membership model was built. The cost-benefit analysis showed a positive return after 6 years of investment in the regional emergency response team. Financial modeling allowed for the calculation of premiums for 2 types of providers within the emergency response team's catchment area: hospitals and long-term care facilities. The analysis indicated that preparedness activities have a positive return on their investment in this substate region. By applying economic principles, communities can estimate their return on investment to make better business decisions in an effort to increase the sustainability of emergency preparedness programs at the regional level.

Economic consequences of aviation system disruptions: A reduced-form computable general equilibrium analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chen, Zhenhua; Rose, Adam Z.; Prager, Fynnwin

The state of the art approach to economic consequence analysis (ECA) is computable general equilibrium (CGE) modeling. However, such models contain thousands of equations and cannot readily be incorporated into computerized systems used by policy analysts to yield estimates of economic impacts of various types of transportation system failures due to natural hazards, human related attacks or technological accidents. This paper presents a reduced-form approach to simplify the analytical content of CGE models to make them more transparent and enhance their utilization potential. The reduced-form CGE analysis is conducted by first running simulations one hundred times, varying key parameters, suchmore » as magnitude of the initial shock, duration, location, remediation, and resilience, according to a Latin Hypercube sampling procedure. Statistical analysis is then applied to the “synthetic data” results in the form of both ordinary least squares and quantile regression. The analysis yields linear equations that are incorporated into a computerized system and utilized along with Monte Carlo simulation methods for propagating uncertainties in economic consequences. Although our demonstration and discussion focuses on aviation system disruptions caused by terrorist attacks, the approach can be applied to a broad range of threat scenarios.« less

Solar energy system economic evaluation for IBM System 3, Glendo, Wyoming

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1980-01-01

This analysis was based on the technical and economic models in f-chart design procedures with inputs based on the characteristics of the parameters of present worth of system cost over a projected twenty year life: life cycle savings, year of positive savings, and year of payback for the optimized solar energy system at each of the analysis sites. The sensitivity of the economic evaluation to uncertainties in constituent system and economic variables was also investigated.

Input-output model for MACCS nuclear accident impacts estimation¹

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Outkin, Alexander V.; Bixler, Nathan E.; Vargas, Vanessa N

Since the original economic model for MACCS was developed, better quality economic data (as well as the tools to gather and process it) and better computational capabilities have become available. The update of the economic impacts component of the MACCS legacy model will provide improved estimates of business disruptions through the use of Input-Output based economic impact estimation. This paper presents an updated MACCS model, bases on Input-Output methodology, in which economic impacts are calculated using the Regional Economic Accounting analysis tool (REAcct) created at Sandia National Laboratories. This new GDP-based model allows quick and consistent estimation of gross domesticmore » product (GDP) losses due to nuclear power plant accidents. This paper outlines the steps taken to combine the REAcct Input-Output-based model with the MACCS code, describes the GDP loss calculation, and discusses the parameters and modeling assumptions necessary for the estimation of long-term effects of nuclear power plant accidents.« less

Economic analysis of an intraoperative cell salvage service.

PubMed

Szpisjak, Dale F; Potter, Paul S; Capehart, Bruce P

2004-01-01

In the United States, the cost of erythrocyte transfusion exceeds 1.3 billion dollars annually. The fear of viral disease transmission popularized intraoperative salvage to reduce the use of banked blood. Although the economics of this technique have been questioned, the financial variables in providing an intraoperative autotransfusion service have not been analyzed. We designed mathematical models to determine the most cost-effective strategy based on hospital caseload. Four models were analyzed with a spreadsheet to project costs of an intraoperative autotransfusion service when fully or partially outsourced, performed by a full-time technician employee, or performed by a cross-trained employee. The Partially Outsourced model was more economical than the Fully Outsourced model when the annual caseload exceeded 185 cases. The New Employee model became more economical than the Fully Outsourced model when the annual caseload exceeded 110 cases. The Cross-Trained model was the most economical when annual caseload exceeded 55 cases. Cross-training an employee as a cell salvage technician is more economical than outsourcing when caseload exceeds 55 per year.

A Comprehensive Planning Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Temkin, Sanford

1972-01-01

Combines elements of the problem solving approach inherent in methods of applied economics and operations research and the structural-functional analysis common in social science modeling to develop an approach for economic planning and resource allocation for schools and other public sector organizations. (Author)

MULTIREGION: a simulation-forecasting model of BEA economic area population and employment. [Bureau of Economic Analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Olsen, R.J.; Westley, G.W.; Herzog, H.W. Jr.

This report documents the development of MULTIREGION, a computer model of regional and interregional socio-economic development. The MULTIREGION model interprets the economy of each BEA economic area as a labor market, measures all activity in terms of people as members of the population (labor supply) or as employees (labor demand), and simultaneously simulates or forecasts the demands and supplies of labor in all BEA economic areas at five-year intervals. In general the outputs of MULTIREGION are intended to resemble those of the Water Resource Council's OBERS projections and to be put to similar planning and analysis purposes. This report hasmore » been written at two levels to serve the needs of multiple audiences. The body of the report serves as a fairly nontechnical overview of the entire MULTIREGION project; a series of technical appendixes provide detailed descriptions of the background empirical studies of births, deaths, migration, labor force participation, natural resource employment, manufacturing employment location, and local service employment used to construct the model.« less

[A cost-benefit analysis of different therapeutic methods in menorrhagia].

PubMed

Kirschner, R

1995-02-20

When deciding the right forms of treatment for various medical conditions it has been usual to consider medical knowledge, norms and experience. Increasingly, economic factors and principles are being introduced by the management, in the form of health economics and pharmaco-economic analyses, enforced as budgetary cuts and demands for rationalisation and measures to increase efficiency. Economic evaluations require construction of models for analyses. We have used DRG-information, National Health reimbursements and pharmacological retail prices to make a cost-efficiency analysis of treatments of menorrhagia. The analysis showed better cost-efficiency for certain pharmacological treatments than for surgery.

Preliminary Analysis of the Jobs and Economic Impacts of Renewable Energy Projects Supported by the §1603 Treasury Grant Program

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Steinberg, Daniel; Porro, Gian; Goldberg, Marshall

This analysis responds to a request from the Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy to the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to estimate the direct and indirect jobs and economic impacts of projects supported by the §1603 Treasury grant program. The analysis employs the Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (JEDI) models to estimate the gross jobs, earnings, and economic output supported by the construction and operation of the large wind (greater than 1 MW) and solar photovoltaic (PV) projects funded by the §1603 grant program.

Preliminary Analysis of the Jobs and Economic Impacts of Renewable Energy Projects Supported by the ..Section..1603 Treasury Grant Program

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Steinberg, D.; Porro, G.; Goldberg, M.

This analysis responds to a request from the Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy to the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to estimate the direct and indirect jobs and economic impacts of projects supported by the Section 1603 Treasury grant program. The analysis employs the Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (JEDI) models to estimate the gross jobs, earnings, and economic output supported by the construction and operation of the large wind (greater than 1 MW) and solar photovoltaic (PV) projects funded by the Section 1603 grant program.

Preliminary Analysis of the Jobs and Economic Impacts of Renewable Energy Projects Supported by the §1603Treasury Grant Program

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Steinberg, Daniel; Porro, Gian; Goldberg, Marshall

2012-04-01

This analysis responds to a request from the Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy to the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to estimate the direct and indirect jobs and economic impacts of projects supported by the §1603 Treasury grant program. The analysis employs the Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (JEDI) models to estimate the gross jobs, earnings, and economic output supported by the construction and operation of the large wind (greater than 1 MW) and solar photovoltaic (PV) projects funded by the §1603 grant program.

[Parameter of evidence-based medicine in health care economics].

PubMed

Wasem, J; Siebert, U

1999-08-01

In the view of scarcity of resources, economic evaluations in health care, in which not only effects but also costs related to a medical intervention are examined and a incremental cost-outcome-ratio is build, are an important supplement to the program of evidence based medicine. Outcomes of a medical intervention can be measured by clinical effectiveness, quality-adjusted life years, and monetary evaluation of benefits. As far as costs are concerned, direct medical costs, direct non-medical costs and indirect costs have to be considered in an economic evaluation. Data can be used from primary studies or secondary analysis; metaanalysis for synthesizing of data may be adequate. For calculation of incremental cost-benefit-ratios, models of decision analysis (decision tree models, Markov-models) often are necessary. Methodological and ethical limits for application of the results of economic evaluation in resource allocation decision in health care have to be regarded: Economic evaluations and the calculation of cost-outcome-rations should only support decision making but cannot replace it.

An Analysis of the President’s Budgetary Proposals for Fiscal Year 2007

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-03-01

and added that amount to the models ’ underlying esti- mates of the effect on output. The procedure phased in an increase in gross national product ...Bottles: A Meta-Analysis of Ricardian Equivalence,” Southern Economic Journal, vol. 64, no. 3 (January 1998), pp. 713-727. APPENDIX C THE MODELS USED...Economy 29 A Description of the Models Used by CBO and Their Results 36 A Changes to CBO’s Baseline Since January 2006 45 B The Potential Economic

Economic agglomerations and spatio-temporal cycles in a spatial growth model with capital transport cost

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Juchem Neto, J. P.; Claeyssen, J. C. R.; Pôrto Júnior, S. S.

2018-03-01

In this paper we introduce capital transport cost in a unidimensional spatial Solow-Swan model of economic growth with capital-induced labor migration, considered in an unbounded domain. Proceeding with a stability analysis, we show that there is a critical value for the capital transport cost where the dynamic behavior of the economy changes, provided that the intensity of capital-induced labor migration is strong enough. On the one hand, if the capital transport cost is higher than this critical value, the spatially homogeneous equilibrium of coexistence of the model is stable, and the economy converges to this spatially homogeneous state in the long run; on the other hand, if transport cost is lower than this critical value, the equilibrium is unstable, and the economy may develop different spatio-temporal dynamics, including the formation of stable economic agglomerations and spatio-temporal economic cycles, depending on the other parameters in the model. Finally, numerical simulations support the results of the stability analysis, and illustrate the spatio-temporal dynamics generated by the model, suggesting that the economy as a whole benefits from the formation of economic agglomerations and cycles, with a higher capital transport cost reducing this gain.

Transportation Systems Evaluation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fanning, M. L.; Michelson, R. A.

1972-01-01

A methodology for the analysis of transportation systems consisting of five major interacting elements is reported. The analysis begins with the causes of travel demand: geographic, economic, and demographic characteristics as well as attitudes toward travel. Through the analysis, the interaction of these factors with the physical and economic characteristics of the transportation system is determined. The result is an evaluation of the system from the point of view of both passenger and operator. The methodology is applicable to the intraurban transit systems as well as major airlines. Applications of the technique to analysis of a PRT system and a study of intraurban air travel are given. In the discussion several unique models or techniques are mentioned: i.e., passenger preference modeling, an integrated intraurban transit model, and a series of models to perform airline analysis.

Analysis and assessment of STES technologies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown, D. R.; Blahnik, D. E.; Huber, H. D.

1982-12-01

Technical and economic assessments completed in FY 1982 in support of the Seasonal Thermal Energy Storage (STES) segment of the Underground Energy Storage Program included: (1) a detailed economic investigation of the cost of heat storage in aquifers, (2) documentation for AQUASTOR, a computer model for analyzing aquifer thermal energy storage (ATES) coupled with district heating or cooling, and (3) a technical and economic evaluation of several ice storage concepts. This paper summarizes the research efforts and main results of each of these three activities. In addition, a detailed economic investigation of the cost of chill storage in aquifers is currently in progress. The work parallels that done for ATES heat storage with technical and economic assumptions being varied in a parametric analysis of the cost of ATES delivered chill. The computer model AQUASTOR is the principal analytical tool being employed.

Investment Justification of Robotic Technology in Aerospace Manufacturing. User’s Manual

DTIC Science & Technology

1984-10-01

assessing the economic attractiveness of investments in robotics and/or flexible manufacturing systems (FMS). It models the cash flows...relative. 5. RIDM assesses the inherent economic attractiveness of robotic/FMS implementation. The model is based on real economic events and not...provided for an optional analysis of state and local tax impacts, to be custom designed by the user. (2) Computation of Depreciation

Evidence-based economic analysis demonstrates that ecosystem service benefits of water hyacinth management greatly exceed research and control costs

PubMed Central

Harms, Nathan E.; Magen, Cedric; Liang, Dong; Nesslage, Genevieve M.; McMurray, Anna M.; Cofrancesco, Al F.

2018-01-01

Invasive species management can be a victim of its own success when decades of effective control cause memories of past harm to fade and raise questions of whether programs should continue. Economic analysis can be used to assess the efficiency of investing in invasive species control by comparing ecosystem service benefits to program costs, but only if appropriate data exist. We used a case study of water hyacinth (Eichhornia crassipes (Mart.) Solms), a nuisance floating aquatic plant, in Louisiana to demonstrate how comprehensive record-keeping supports economic analysis. Using long-term data sets, we developed empirical and spatio-temporal simulation models of intermediate complexity to project invasive species growth for control and no-control scenarios. For Louisiana, we estimated that peak plant cover would be 76% higher without the substantial growth rate suppression (84% reduction) that appeared due primarily to biological control agents. Our economic analysis revealed that combined biological and herbicide control programs, monitored over an unusually long time period (1975–2013), generated a benefit-cost ratio of about 34:1 derived from the relatively modest costs of $124 million ($2013) compared to the $4.2 billion ($2013) in benefits to anglers, waterfowl hunters, boating-dependent businesses, and water treatment facilities over the 38-year analysis period. This work adds to the literature by: (1) providing evidence of the effectiveness of water hyacinth biological control; (2) demonstrating use of parsimonious spatio-temporal models to estimate benefits of invasive species control; and (3) incorporating activity substitution into economic benefit transfer to avoid overstating benefits. Our study suggests that robust and cost-effective economic analysis is enabled by good record keeping and generalizable models that can demonstrate management effectiveness and promote social efficiency of invasive species control. PMID:29844976

Evidence-based economic analysis demonstrates that ecosystem service benefits of water hyacinth management greatly exceed research and control costs.

PubMed

Wainger, Lisa A; Harms, Nathan E; Magen, Cedric; Liang, Dong; Nesslage, Genevieve M; McMurray, Anna M; Cofrancesco, Al F

2018-01-01

Invasive species management can be a victim of its own success when decades of effective control cause memories of past harm to fade and raise questions of whether programs should continue. Economic analysis can be used to assess the efficiency of investing in invasive species control by comparing ecosystem service benefits to program costs, but only if appropriate data exist. We used a case study of water hyacinth ( Eichhornia crassipes (Mart.) Solms), a nuisance floating aquatic plant, in Louisiana to demonstrate how comprehensive record-keeping supports economic analysis. Using long-term data sets, we developed empirical and spatio-temporal simulation models of intermediate complexity to project invasive species growth for control and no-control scenarios. For Louisiana, we estimated that peak plant cover would be 76% higher without the substantial growth rate suppression (84% reduction) that appeared due primarily to biological control agents. Our economic analysis revealed that combined biological and herbicide control programs, monitored over an unusually long time period (1975-2013), generated a benefit-cost ratio of about 34:1 derived from the relatively modest costs of $124 million ($2013) compared to the $4.2 billion ($2013) in benefits to anglers, waterfowl hunters, boating-dependent businesses, and water treatment facilities over the 38-year analysis period. This work adds to the literature by: (1) providing evidence of the effectiveness of water hyacinth biological control; (2) demonstrating use of parsimonious spatio-temporal models to estimate benefits of invasive species control; and (3) incorporating activity substitution into economic benefit transfer to avoid overstating benefits. Our study suggests that robust and cost-effective economic analysis is enabled by good record keeping and generalizable models that can demonstrate management effectiveness and promote social efficiency of invasive species control.

A Statistical Analysis Of Construction Equipment Repair Costs Using Field Data & The Cumulative Cost Model.

DTIC Science & Technology

1998-04-28

be discussed. 2.1 ECONOMIC REPLACEMENT THEORY Decisions about heavy equipment should be made based on sound economic principles , not emotions...Life) will be less than L*. The converse is also true. 2.1.3 The Repair Limit Theory A different way of looking at the economic replacement decision...Summary Three different economic models have been reviewed in this section. The output of each is distinct. One seeks to minimize costs, one seeks to

Economic modeling of fault tolerant flight control systems in commercial applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Finelli, G. B.

1982-01-01

This paper describes the current development of a comprehensive model which will supply the assessment and analysis capability to investigate the economic viability of Fault Tolerant Flight Control Systems (FTFCS) for commercial aircraft of the 1990's and beyond. An introduction to the unique attributes of fault tolerance and how they will influence aircraft operations and consequent airline costs and benefits is presented. Specific modeling issues and elements necessary for accurate assessment of all costs affected by ownership and operation of FTFCS are delineated. Trade-off factors are presented, aimed at exposing economically optimal realizations of system implementations, resource allocation, and operating policies. A trade-off example is furnished to graphically display some of the analysis capabilities of the comprehensive simulation model now being developed.

Solar energy system economic evaluation for Seeco Lincoln, Lincoln, Nebraska. Final report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

1980-09-01

The economic analysis of the solar energy system that was installed at Lincoln, Nebraska is developed for this and four other sites typical of a wide range of environmental and economic conditions in the continental United States. This analysis is accomplished based on the technical and economic models in the f chart design procedure with inputs based on the characteristics of the installed system and local conditions. The results are expressed in terms of the economic parameters of present worth of system cost over projected twenty year life: life cycle savings, year of positive savings and year of payback formore » the optimized solar energy system at each of the analysis sites. The sensitivity of the economic evaluation to uncertainties in constituent system and economic variables is also investigated.« less

Modeling of Economy Considering Crisis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petrov, Lev F.

2009-09-01

We discuss main modeling's problems of economy dynamic processes and the reason forecast's absence of economic crisis. We present a structure of complexity level of system and models and discuss expected results concerning crisis phenomena. We formulate the basic perspective directions of the mathematical modeling of economy, including possibility of the analysis of the pre crisis, crisis and post crisis phenomena in economic systems.

User Guide for the International Jobs and Economic Development Impacts Model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Keyser, David; Flores-Espino, Francisco; Uriarte, Caroline

The International Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (I-JEDI) model is a freely available economic model that estimates gross economic impacts from wind, solar, and geothermal energy projects for several different countries. Building on the original JEDI model, which was developed for the United States, I-JEDI was developed under the USAID Enhancing Capacity for Low Emission Development Strategies (EC-LEDS) program to support countries in assessing economic impacts of LEDS actions in the energy sector. I-JEDI estimates economic impacts by characterizing the construction and operation of energy projects in terms of expenditures and the portion of these expenditures made within the countrymore » of analysis. These data are then used in a country-specific input-output (I-O) model to estimate employment, earnings, gross domestic product (GDP), and gross output impacts. Total economic impacts are presented as well as impacts by industry. This user guide presents general information about how to use I-JEDI and interpret results as well as detailed information about methodology and model limitations.« less

Japanese migration in contemporary Japan: economic segmentation and interprefectural migration.

PubMed

Fukurai, H

1991-01-01

This paper examines the economic segmentation model in explaining 1985-86 Japanese interregional migration. The analysis takes advantage of statistical graphic techniques to illustrate the following substantive issues of interregional migration: (1) to examine whether economic segmentation significantly influences Japanese regional migration and (2) to explain socioeconomic characteristics of prefectures for both in- and out-migration. Analytic techniques include a latent structural equation (LISREL) methodology and statistical residual mapping. The residual dispersion patterns, for instance, suggest the extent to which socioeconomic and geopolitical variables explain migration differences by showing unique clusters of unexplained residuals. The analysis further points out that extraneous factors such as high residential land values, significant commuting populations, and regional-specific cultures and traditions need to be incorporated in the economic segmentation model in order to assess the extent of the model's reliability in explaining the pattern of interprefectural migration.

A regional scale modeling framework combining biogeochemical model with life cycle and economic analysis for integrated assessment of cropping systems.

PubMed

Tabatabaie, Seyed Mohammad Hossein; Bolte, John P; Murthy, Ganti S

2018-06-01

The goal of this study was to integrate a crop model, DNDC (DeNitrification-DeComposition), with life cycle assessment (LCA) and economic analysis models using a GIS-based integrated platform, ENVISION. The integrated model enables LCA practitioners to conduct integrated economic analysis and LCA on a regional scale while capturing the variability of soil emissions due to variation in regional factors during production of crops and biofuel feedstocks. In order to evaluate the integrated model, the corn-soybean cropping system in Eagle Creek Watershed, Indiana was studied and the integrated model was used to first model the soil emissions and then conduct the LCA as well as economic analysis. The results showed that the variation in soil emissions due to variation in weather is high causing some locations to be carbon sink in some years and source of CO 2 in other years. In order to test the model under different scenarios, two tillage scenarios were defined: 1) conventional tillage (CT) and 2) no tillage (NT) and analyzed with the model. The overall GHG emissions for the corn-soybean cropping system was simulated and results showed that the NT scenario resulted in lower soil GHG emissions compared to CT scenario. Moreover, global warming potential (GWP) of corn ethanol from well to pump varied between 57 and 92gCO 2 -eq./MJ while GWP under the NT system was lower than that of the CT system. The cost break-even point was calculated as $3612.5/ha in a two year corn-soybean cropping system and the results showed that under low and medium prices for corn and soybean most of the farms did not meet the break-even point. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Effects on U.S. Timber Outlook of Recent Economic Recession, Collapse in Housing Construction, and Wood Energy Trends

Treesearch

Peter J. Ince; Prakash Nepal

2012-01-01

This paper reviews recent trends and structural changes in U.S. forest product markets and projects their effects on the long-range U.S. timber market outlook. The analysis derives from the same U.S. and global economic model that produced 50-year projections for the 2010 RPA nationwide forest assessment, but analysis is revised to more accurately include the economic...

Global climate change impacts on forests and markets

Treesearch

Xiaohui Tian; Brent Sohngen; John B Kim; Sara Ohrel; Jefferson Cole

2016-01-01

This paper develops an economic analysis of climate change impacts in the global forest sector. It illustrates how potential future climate change impacts can be integrated into a dynamic forestry economics model using data from a global dynamic vegetation model, theMC2model. The results suggest that climate change will cause forest outputs (such as timber) to increase...

Health economic analyses in medical nutrition: a systematic literature review.

PubMed

Walzer, Stefan; Droeschel, Daniel; Nuijten, Mark; Chevrou-Séverac, Hélène

2014-01-01

Medical nutrition is a specific nutrition category either covering specific dietary needs and/or nutrient deficiency in patients or feeding patients unable to eat normally. Medical nutrition is regulated by a specific bill in Europe and in the US, with specific legislation and guidelines, and is provided to patients with special nutritional needs and indications for nutrition support. Therefore, medical nutrition products are delivered by medical prescription and supervised by health care professionals. Although these products have existed for more than 2 decades, health economic evidence of medical nutrition interventions is scarce. This research assesses the current published health economic evidence for medical nutrition by performing a systematic literature review related to health economic analysis of medical nutrition. A systematic literature search was done using standard literature databases, including PubMed, the Health Technology Assessment Database, and the National Health Service Economic Evaluation Database. Additionally, a free web-based search was conducted using the same search terms utilized in the systematic database search. The clinical background and basis of the analysis, health economic design, and results were extracted from the papers finally selected. The Drummond checklist was used to validate the quality of health economic modeling studies and the AMSTAR (A Measurement Tool to Assess Systematic Reviews) checklist was used for published systematic reviews. Fifty-three papers were identified and obtained via PubMed, or directly via journal webpages for further assessment. Thirty-two papers were finally included in a thorough data extraction procedure, including those identified by a "gray literature search" utilizing the Google search engine and cross-reference searches. Results regarding content of the studies showed that malnutrition was the underlying clinical condition in most cases (32%). In addition, gastrointestinal disorders (eg, surgery, cancer) were often analyzed. In terms of settings, 56% of papers covered inpatients, whereas 14 papers (44%) captured outpatients, including patients in community centers. Interestingly, in comparison with the papers identified overall, very few health economic models were found. Most of the articles were modeling analyses and economic trials in different design settings. Overall, only eight health economic models were published and were validated applying the Drummond checklist. In summary, most of the models included were carried out to quite a high standard, although some areas were identified for further improvement. Of the two systematic health economic reviews identified, one achieved the highest quality score when applying the AMSTAR checklist. The reasons for finding only a few modeling studies but quite a large number of clinical trials with health economic endpoints, might be different. Until recently, health economics has not been required for reimbursement or coverage decisions concerning medical nutrition interventions. Further, there might be specifics of medical nutrition which might not allow easy modeling and consequently explain the limited uptake so far. The health economic data on medical nutrition generated and published is quite ample. However, it has been primarily based on database analysis and clinical studies. Only a few modeling analyses have been carried out, indicating a need for further research to understand the specifics of medical nutrition and their applicability for health economic modeling.

Space tug economic analysis study. Volume 2: Tug concepts analysis. Part 1: Overall approach and data generation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1972-01-01

An economic analysis of space tug operations is presented. The subjects discussed are: (1) data base for orbit injection stages, (2) data base for reusable space tug, (3) performance equations, (4) data integration and interpretation, (5) tug performance and mission model accomodation, (6) total program cost, (7) payload analysis, (8) computer software, and (9) comparison of tug concepts.

A cross-national analysis of how economic inequality predicts biodiversity loss.

PubMed

Holland, Tim G; Peterson, Garry D; Gonzalez, Andrew

2009-10-01

We used socioeconomic models that included economic inequality to predict biodiversity loss, measured as the proportion of threatened plant and vertebrate species, across 50 countries. Our main goal was to evaluate whether economic inequality, measured as the Gini index of income distribution, improved the explanatory power of our statistical models. We compared four models that included the following: only population density, economic footprint (i.e., the size of the economy relative to the country area), economic footprint and income inequality (Gini index), and an index of environmental governance. We also tested the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis, but it was not supported by the data. Statistical comparisons of the models revealed that the model including both economic footprint and inequality was the best predictor of threatened species. It significantly outperformed population density alone and the environmental governance model according to the Akaike information criterion. Inequality was a significant predictor of biodiversity loss and significantly improved the fit of our models. These results confirm that socioeconomic inequality is an important factor to consider when predicting rates of anthropogenic biodiversity loss.

A model for estimating the impact of changes in children's vaccines.

PubMed

Simpson, K N; Biddle, A K; Rabinovich, N R

1995-12-01

To assist in strategic planning for the improvement of vaccines and vaccine programs, an economic model was developed and tested that estimates the potential impact of vaccine innovations on health outcomes and costs associated with vaccination and illness. A multistep, iterative process of data extraction/integration was used to develop the model and the scenarios. Parameter replication, sensitivity analysis, and expert review were used to validate the model. The greatest impact on the improvement of health is expected to result from the production of less reactogenic vaccines that require fewer inoculations for immunity. The greatest economic impact is predicted from improvements that decrease the number of inoculations required. Scenario analysis may be useful for integrating health outcomes and economic data into decision making. For childhood infections, this analysis indicates that large cost savings can be achieved in the future if we can improve vaccine efficacy so that the number of required inoculations is reduced. Such an improvement represents a large potential "payback" for the United States and might benefit other countries.

Techno-economic and Monte Carlo probabilistic analysis of microalgae biofuel production system.

PubMed

Batan, Liaw Y; Graff, Gregory D; Bradley, Thomas H

2016-11-01

This study focuses on the characterization of the technical and economic feasibility of an enclosed photobioreactor microalgae system with annual production of 37.85 million liters (10 million gallons) of biofuel. The analysis characterizes and breaks down the capital investment and operating costs and the production cost of unit of algal diesel. The economic modelling shows total cost of production of algal raw oil and diesel of $3.46 and $3.69 per liter, respectively. Additionally, the effects of co-products' credit and their impact in the economic performance of algal-to-biofuel system are discussed. The Monte Carlo methodology is used to address price and cost projections and to simulate scenarios with probabilities of financial performance and profits of the analyzed model. Different markets for allocation of co-products have shown significant shifts for economic viability of algal biofuel system. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Solar energy system economic evaluation for Elcam-Tempe, Tempe, Arizona and Elcam-San Diego, San Diego, California

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1980-01-01

The long term economic performance of the solar energy system at its installation site is analyzed and four additional locations selected to demonstrate the viability of the design over a broad range of environmental and economic conditions. The economic analysis of the solar energy systems that were installed at Tempe, Arizona and San Diego, California, is developed for these and four other sites typical of a wide range of environmental and economic conditions in the continental United States. This analysis is accomplished based on the technical and economic models in the f Chart design procedure with inputs based on the characteristics of the installed system and local conditions. The results are expressed in terms of the economic parameters of present worth of system cost over a projected twenty year life: life cycle savings; year of positive savings; and year of payback for the optimized solar energy system at each of the analysis sites. The sensitivity of the economic evaluation to uncertainites in constituent system and economic variables is also investigated. The results demonstrate that the solar energy system is economically viable at all of the sites for which the analysis was conducted.

Production Functions for Water Delivery Systems: Analysis and Estimation Using Dual Cost Function and Implicit Price Specifications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Teeples, Ronald; Glyer, David

1987-05-01

Both policy and technical analysis of water delivery systems have been based on cost functions that are inconsistent with or are incomplete representations of the neoclassical production functions of economics. We present a full-featured production function model of water delivery which can be estimated from a multiproduct, dual cost function. The model features implicit prices for own-water inputs and is implemented as a jointly estimated system of input share equations and a translog cost function. Likelihood ratio tests are performed showing that a minimally constrained, full-featured production function is a necessary specification of the water delivery operations in our sample. This, plus the model's highly efficient and economically correct parameter estimates, confirms the usefulness of a production function approach to modeling the economic activities of water delivery systems.

Economic analysis of tree improvement: A status report

Treesearch

George F. Dutrow

1974-01-01

Review of current literature establishes that most authors believe that tree improvement expands production, although some point out drawbacks and alternatives. Both softwood and hardwood improvement programs have been analyzed. The authors used various models, economic assumptions, and standards of measurement, but available data were limited. Future models shouId...

Solar energy system economic evaluation for Solaron Akron, Akron, Ohio

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1980-01-01

The economic analysis of the solar energy system that was installed at Akron, Ohio is developed for this and four other sites typical of a wide range of environmental and economic conditions. The analysis is accomplished based on the technical and economic models in the f chart design procedure with inputs based on the characteristics of the installed parameters of present worth of system cost over a projected twenty year life: life cycle savings, year of positive savings and year of payback for the optimized solar energy system at each of the analysis sites. The sensitivity of the economic evaluation to uncertainties in constituent system and economic variables is also investigated. Results show that only in Albuquerque, New Mexico, where insolation is 1828 Btu/sq ft/day and the conventional energy cost is high, is this solar energy system marginally profitable.

System capacity and economic modeling computer tool for satellite mobile communications systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wiedeman, Robert A.; Wen, Doong; Mccracken, Albert G.

1988-01-01

A unique computer modeling tool that combines an engineering tool with a financial analysis program is described. The resulting combination yields a flexible economic model that can predict the cost effectiveness of various mobile systems. Cost modeling is necessary in order to ascertain if a given system with a finite satellite resource is capable of supporting itself financially and to determine what services can be supported. Personal computer techniques using Lotus 123 are used for the model in order to provide as universal an application as possible such that the model can be used and modified to fit many situations and conditions. The output of the engineering portion of the model consists of a channel capacity analysis and link calculations for several qualities of service using up to 16 types of earth terminal configurations. The outputs of the financial model are a revenue analysis, an income statement, and a cost model validation section.

Multivariate Regression Analysis and Slaughter Livestock,

DTIC Science & Technology

AGRICULTURE, *ECONOMICS), (*MEAT, PRODUCTION), MULTIVARIATE ANALYSIS, REGRESSION ANALYSIS , ANIMALS, WEIGHT, COSTS, PREDICTIONS, STABILITY, MATHEMATICAL MODELS, STORAGE, BEEF, PORK, FOOD, STATISTICAL DATA, ACCURACY

A Spatial-Economic Cost-Reduction Pathway Analysis for U.S. Offshore Wind Energy Development from 2015-2030

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Beiter, Philipp; Stehly, Tyler

The potential for cost reduction and economic viability for offshore wind varies considerably within the United States. This analysis models the cost impact of a range of offshore wind locational cost variables across more than 7,000 potential coastal sites in the United States' offshore wind resource area. It also assesses the impact of over 50 technology innovations on potential future costs between 2015 and 2027 (Commercial Operation Date) for both fixed-bottom and floating wind systems. Comparing these costs to an initial assessment of local avoided generating costs, this analysis provides a framework for estimating the economic potential for offshore wind.more » Analyzing economic potential within this framework can help establish a refined understanding across industries of the technology and site-specific risks and opportunities associated with future offshore wind development. The findings from the original report indicate that under the modeled scenario, offshore wind can be expected to achieve significant cost reductions and may approach economic viability in some parts of the United States within the next 15 years.« less

Francisco Flores-Espino | NREL

Science.gov Websites

regulation Project-level financial analysis and modeling Research Interests Economic impacts of renewable , and D. Loomis. 2015. Offshore Wind Jobs and Economic Development Impacts in the United States: Four . Keyser, and S. Tegen. 2014. "Potential Economic Impacts from Offshore Wind in the Gulf of Mexico

The Principles of Economics from Now until Then.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bell, Carolyn Shaw

1988-01-01

Examining economics textbooks, Bell states that today's texts descend from Samuelson's "Economics" published in 1948. States that the closed economy model used to present aggregate analysis has become irrelevant. Argues that introductory textbooks should develop a student understanding of the interdependent world economy as well as…

Resource Planning Model | Energy Analysis | NREL

Science.gov Websites

balancing authority. An image of a overlapping circles labelled Resource, Technical, Economic, and Market competing electricity technologies. An image of a overlapping circles labelled Resource, Technical, Economic ; Federal Resource Planning. Volume 1: Sectoral, Technical, and Economic Trends, NREL Technical Report (2016

Development of cost-effective surfactant flooding technology, Quarterly report, October 1995--December 1995

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pope, G.A.; Sepehrnoori, K.

1995-12-31

The objective of this research is to develop cost-effective surfactant flooding technology by using simulation studies to evaluate and optimize alternative design strategies taking into account reservoir characteristics process chemistry, and process design options such as horizontal wells. Task 1 is the development of an improved numerical method for our simulator that will enable us to solve a wider class of these difficult simulation problems accurately and affordably. Task 2 is the application of this simulator to the optimization of surfactant flooding to reduce its risk and cost. In this quarter, we have continued working on Task 2 to optimizemore » surfactant flooding design and have included economic analysis to the optimization process. An economic model was developed using a spreadsheet and the discounted cash flow (DCF) method of economic analysis. The model was designed specifically for a domestic onshore surfactant flood and has been used to economically evaluate previous work that used a technical approach to optimization. The DCF model outputs common economic decision making criteria, such as net present value (NPV), internal rate of return (IRR), and payback period.« less

Economic Planning for Multicounty Rural Areas: Application of a Linear Programming Model in Northwest Arkansas. Technical Bulletin No. 1653.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Williams, Daniel G.

Planners in multicounty rural areas can use the Rural Development, Activity Analysis Planning (RDAAP) model to try to influence the optimal growth of their areas among different general economic goals. The model implies that best industries for rural areas have: high proportion of imported inputs; low transportation costs; high value added/output…

A multifactor approach to forecasting Romanian gross domestic product (GDP) in the short run.

PubMed

Armeanu, Daniel; Andrei, Jean Vasile; Lache, Leonard; Panait, Mirela

2017-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the application of a generalized dynamic factor model (GDFM) based on dynamic principal components analysis to forecasting short-term economic growth in Romania. We have used a generalized principal components approach to estimate a dynamic model based on a dataset comprising 86 economic and non-economic variables that are linked to economic output. The model exploits the dynamic correlations between these variables and uses three common components that account for roughly 72% of the information contained in the original space. We show that it is possible to generate reliable forecasts of quarterly real gross domestic product (GDP) using just the common components while also assessing the contribution of the individual variables to the dynamics of real GDP. In order to assess the relative performance of the GDFM to standard models based on principal components analysis, we have also estimated two Stock-Watson (SW) models that were used to perform the same out-of-sample forecasts as the GDFM. The results indicate significantly better performance of the GDFM compared with the competing SW models, which empirically confirms our expectations that the GDFM produces more accurate forecasts when dealing with large datasets.

A multifactor approach to forecasting Romanian gross domestic product (GDP) in the short run

PubMed Central

Armeanu, Daniel; Lache, Leonard; Panait, Mirela

2017-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the application of a generalized dynamic factor model (GDFM) based on dynamic principal components analysis to forecasting short-term economic growth in Romania. We have used a generalized principal components approach to estimate a dynamic model based on a dataset comprising 86 economic and non-economic variables that are linked to economic output. The model exploits the dynamic correlations between these variables and uses three common components that account for roughly 72% of the information contained in the original space. We show that it is possible to generate reliable forecasts of quarterly real gross domestic product (GDP) using just the common components while also assessing the contribution of the individual variables to the dynamics of real GDP. In order to assess the relative performance of the GDFM to standard models based on principal components analysis, we have also estimated two Stock-Watson (SW) models that were used to perform the same out-of-sample forecasts as the GDFM. The results indicate significantly better performance of the GDFM compared with the competing SW models, which empirically confirms our expectations that the GDFM produces more accurate forecasts when dealing with large datasets. PMID:28742100

Development of Aspen: A microanalytic simulation model of the US economy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pryor, R.J.; Basu, N.; Quint, T.

1996-02-01

This report describes the development of an agent-based microanalytic simulation model of the US economy. The microsimulation model capitalizes on recent technological advances in evolutionary learning and parallel computing. Results are reported for a test problem that was run using the model. The test results demonstrate the model`s ability to predict business-like cycles in an economy where prices and inventories are allowed to vary. Since most economic forecasting models have difficulty predicting any kind of cyclic behavior. These results show the potential of microanalytic simulation models to improve economic policy analysis and to provide new insights into underlying economic principles.more » Work already has begun on a more detailed model.« less

Analysis of economics of a TV broadcasting satellite for additional nationwide TV programs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Becker, D.; Mertens, G.; Rappold, A.; Seith, W.

1977-01-01

The influence of a TV broadcasting satellite, transmitting four additional TV networks was analyzed. It is assumed that the cost of the satellite systems will be financed by the cable TV system operators. The additional TV programs increase income by attracting additional subscribers. Two economic models were established: (1) each local network is regarded as an independent economic unit with individual fees (cost price model) and (2) all networks are part of one public cable TV company with uniform fees (uniform price model). Assumptions are made for penetration as a function of subscription rates. Main results of the study are: the installation of a TV broadcasting satellite improves the economics of CTV-networks in both models; the overall coverage achievable by the uniform price model is significantly higher than that achievable by the cost price model.

Using machine-learning methods to analyze economic loss function of quality management processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dzedik, V. A.; Lontsikh, P. A.

2018-05-01

During analysis of quality management systems, their economic component is often analyzed insufficiently. To overcome this issue, it is necessary to withdraw the concept of economic loss functions from tolerance thinking and address it. Input data about economic losses in processes have a complex form, thus, using standard tools to solve this problem is complicated. Use of machine learning techniques allows one to obtain precise models of the economic loss function based on even the most complex input data. Results of such analysis contain data about the true efficiency of a process and can be used to make investment decisions.

Guia del Usuario para el Modelo Internacional de Impacto en Trabajos y Desarrollo Economico (in Spanish)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Keyser, David; Flores-Espino, Francisco; Uriarte, Caroline

This is a Spanish translation of 'User Guide for the International Jobs and Economic Development Impacts Model.' The International Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (I-JEDI) model is a freely available economic model that estimates gross economic impacts from wind, solar, and geothermal energy projects for several different countries. Building on the original JEDI model, which was developed for the United States, I-JEDI was developed under the USAID Enhancing Capacity for Low Emission Development Strategies (EC-LEDS) program to support countries in assessing economic impacts of LEDS actions in the energy sector. I-JEDI estimates economic impacts by characterizing the construction and operationmore » of energy projects in terms of expenditures and the portion of these expenditures made within the country of analysis. These data are then used in a country-specific input-output (I-O) model to estimate employment, earnings, gross domestic product (GDP), and gross output impacts. Total economic impacts are presented as well as impacts by industry. This user guide presents general information about how to use I-JEDI and interpret results as well as detailed information about methodology and model limitations.« less

Development of a Conceptual Model of Disease Progression for Use in Economic Modeling of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease.

PubMed

Tabberer, Maggie; Gonzalez-McQuire, Sebastian; Muellerova, Hana; Briggs, Andrew H; Rutten-van Mölken, Maureen P M H; Chambers, Mike; Lomas, David A

2017-05-01

To develop and validate a new conceptual model (CM) of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) for use in disease progression and economic modeling. The CM identifies and describes qualitative associations between disease attributes, progression and outcomes. A literature review was performed to identify any published CMs or literature reporting the impact and association of COPD disease attributes with outcomes. After critical analysis of the literature, a Steering Group of experts from the disciplines of health economics, epidemiology and clinical medicine was convened to develop a draft CM, which was refined using a Delphi process. The refined CM was validated by testing for associations between attributes using data from the Evaluation of COPD Longitudinally to Identify Predictive Surrogate Endpoints (ECLIPSE). Disease progression attributes included in the final CM were history and occurrence of exacerbations, lung function, exercise capacity, signs and symptoms (cough, sputum, dyspnea), cardiovascular disease comorbidities, 'other' comorbidities (including depression), body composition (body mass index), fibrinogen as a biomarker, smoking and demographic characteristics (age, gender). Mortality and health-related quality of life were determined to be the most relevant final outcome measures for this model, intended to be the foundation of an economic model of COPD. The CM is being used as the foundation for developing a new COPD model of disease progression and to provide a framework for the analysis of patient-level data. The CM is available as a reference for the implementation of further disease progression and economic models.

A structured analysis of uncertainty surrounding modeled impacts of groundwater-extraction rules

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guillaume, Joseph H. A.; Qureshi, M. Ejaz; Jakeman, Anthony J.

2012-08-01

Integrating economic and groundwater models for groundwater-management can help improve understanding of trade-offs involved between conflicting socioeconomic and biophysical objectives. However, there is significant uncertainty in most strategic decision-making situations, including in the models constructed to represent them. If not addressed, this uncertainty may be used to challenge the legitimacy of the models and decisions made using them. In this context, a preliminary uncertainty analysis was conducted of a dynamic coupled economic-groundwater model aimed at assessing groundwater extraction rules. The analysis demonstrates how a variety of uncertainties in such a model can be addressed. A number of methods are used including propagation of scenarios and bounds on parameters, multiple models, block bootstrap time-series sampling and robust linear regression for model calibration. These methods are described within the context of a theoretical uncertainty management framework, using a set of fundamental uncertainty management tasks and an uncertainty typology.

Incorporating Psychological Predictors of Treatment Response into Health Economic Simulation Models: A Case Study in Type 1 Diabetes.

PubMed

Kruger, Jen; Pollard, Daniel; Basarir, Hasan; Thokala, Praveen; Cooke, Debbie; Clark, Marie; Bond, Rod; Heller, Simon; Brennan, Alan

2015-10-01

. Health economic modeling has paid limited attention to the effects that patients' psychological characteristics have on the effectiveness of treatments. This case study tests 1) the feasibility of incorporating psychological prediction models of treatment response within an economic model of type 1 diabetes, 2) the potential value of providing treatment to a subgroup of patients, and 3) the cost-effectiveness of providing treatment to a subgroup of responders defined using 5 different algorithms. . Multiple linear regressions were used to investigate relationships between patients' psychological characteristics and treatment effectiveness. Two psychological prediction models were integrated with a patient-level simulation model of type 1 diabetes. Expected value of individualized care analysis was undertaken. Five different algorithms were used to provide treatment to a subgroup of predicted responders. A cost-effectiveness analysis compared using the algorithms to providing treatment to all patients. . The psychological prediction models had low predictive power for treatment effectiveness. Expected value of individualized care results suggested that targeting education at responders could be of value. The cost-effectiveness analysis suggested, for all 5 algorithms, that providing structured education to a subgroup of predicted responders would not be cost-effective. . The psychological prediction models tested did not have sufficient predictive power to make targeting treatment cost-effective. The psychological prediction models are simple linear models of psychological behavior. Collection of data on additional covariates could potentially increase statistical power. . By collecting data on psychological variables before an intervention, we can construct predictive models of treatment response to interventions. These predictive models can be incorporated into health economic models to investigate more complex service delivery and reimbursement strategies. © The Author(s) 2015.

Multinomial Logistic Regression Predicted Probability Map To Visualize The Influence Of Socio-Economic Factors On Breast Cancer Occurrence in Southern Karnataka

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Madhu, B.; Ashok, N. C.; Balasubramanian, S.

2014-11-01

Multinomial logistic regression analysis was used to develop statistical model that can predict the probability of breast cancer in Southern Karnataka using the breast cancer occurrence data during 2007-2011. Independent socio-economic variables describing the breast cancer occurrence like age, education, occupation, parity, type of family, health insurance coverage, residential locality and socioeconomic status of each case was obtained. The models were developed as follows: i) Spatial visualization of the Urban- rural distribution of breast cancer cases that were obtained from the Bharat Hospital and Institute of Oncology. ii) Socio-economic risk factors describing the breast cancer occurrences were complied for each case. These data were then analysed using multinomial logistic regression analysis in a SPSS statistical software and relations between the occurrence of breast cancer across the socio-economic status and the influence of other socio-economic variables were evaluated and multinomial logistic regression models were constructed. iii) the model that best predicted the occurrence of breast cancer were identified. This multivariate logistic regression model has been entered into a geographic information system and maps showing the predicted probability of breast cancer occurrence in Southern Karnataka was created. This study demonstrates that Multinomial logistic regression is a valuable tool for developing models that predict the probability of breast cancer Occurrence in Southern Karnataka.

Analyzing the impact of the Firefly Trail on economic development in northeast Georgia : final report.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2016-10-01

This research report contains the findings of the analysis undertaken to measure the economic impact of the proposed Firefly Trail on the local economy. An input-output model was constructed to study the economic impact of the project on the local ec...

The Analysis of the Relation between Education and Economic Growth

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Monteils, Marielle

2004-01-01

The debate concerning the various determinants of economic growth has attracted considerable attention. The argument according to which endogenous growth models explain long-term economic growth is often put forward. Particularly, it is held that the production of knowledge by education induces self-sustained growth. In spite of numerous…

Economic evaluation of a solar hot-water system--Palm Beach County, Florida

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1981-01-01

Report projects solar-energy costs and savings for residential hot-water system over 20 year period. Evaluation uses technical and economic models with inputs based on working characteristics of installed system. Primary analysis permits calculation of economic viability for four other U.S. sites.

Developing and testing a positive theory of instrument choice: Renewable energy policy in the fifty American states

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ciocirlan, Cristina E.

The environmental economics literature consistently suggests that properly designed and implemented economic incentives are superior to command-and-control regulation in reducing pollution. Economic incentives, such as green taxes, cap-and-trade programs, tax incentives, are able to reduce pollution in a cost-effective manner, provide flexibility to industry and stimulate innovation in cleaner technologies. In the past few decades, both federal and state governments have shown increased use of economic incentives in environmental policy. Some states have embraced them in an active manner, while others have failed to do so. This research uses a three-step analysis. First, it asks why some states employ more economic incentives than others to stimulate consumption of renewable energy by the residential, commercial and industrial sectors. Second, it asks why some states employ stronger incentives than others. And third, it asks why certain states employ certain instruments, such as electricity surcharges, cap-and-trade programs, tax incentives or grants, while others do not. The first two analyses were conducted using factor analysis and multiple regression analysis, while the third analysis employed logistic regression models to analyze the data. Data for all three analyses were obtained from a combination of primary and secondary sources. To address these questions, a theory of instrument choice at the state level, which includes both internal and external determinants of policy-making, was developed and tested. The state level of analysis was chosen. States have proven to be pioneers in designing policies to address greenhouse gases (see, for instance, the recent cap-and-trade legislation passed in California). The theory was operationalized with the help of four models: needs/responsiveness, interest group influence, professionalism/capacity and innovation-and-diffusion. The needs/responsiveness model suggests that states tend to choose more and stronger economic incentives when they are more dependent on conventional sources of energy, such as coal, oil and gas or when they have the potential to produce renewable energy. The interest group influence model suggests that instrument choice is ultimately a political decision, most likely to benefit some groups more than others. The professionalism/capacity model posits that states with more professional legislatures, with legislators who make more use of policy analysis, with more capacity to generate nonpartisan policy research and with larger agencies tend to employ more and stronger instruments to stimulate renewable energy consumption and production. And last, the innovation-and-diffusion model suggests that states with a proven innovation record in climate change tend to employ more and stronger economic incentives than states without such record. Also, this model explains states' instrument choice decisions as a function of the choices made by their neighbors.

An Economic Analysis of the Demand for Scientific Journals

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Berg, Sanford V.

1972-01-01

The purpose of this study is to demonstrate that economic analysis can be useful in modeling the scientific journal market. Of particular interest is the efficiency of pricing and page policies. To calculate loses due to inefficiencies, demand parameters are statistically estimated and used in a discussion of market efficiency. (3 references)…

Analysis of Dual Mode Systems in an Urban Area : Volume 4A. Program Documentation of the Transportation Economic Analysis Model.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1973-12-01

Various forms of Dual Mode Transportation were analyzed in order to assess the economic viability of the Dual Mode concept. A Dual Mode vehicle is one which operates under manual control on a streee network for some portionof its trip, and operates u...

Generalisability in economic evaluation studies in healthcare: a review and case studies.

PubMed

Sculpher, M J; Pang, F S; Manca, A; Drummond, M F; Golder, S; Urdahl, H; Davies, L M; Eastwood, A

2004-12-01

To review, and to develop further, the methods used to assess and to increase the generalisability of economic evaluation studies. Electronic databases. Methodological studies relating to economic evaluation in healthcare were searched. This included electronic searches of a range of databases, including PREMEDLINE, MEDLINE, EMBASE and EconLit, and manual searches of key journals. The case studies of a decision analytic model involved highlighting specific features of previously published economic studies related to generalisability and location-related variability. The case-study involving the secondary analysis of cost-effectiveness analyses was based on the secondary analysis of three economic studies using data from randomised trials. The factor most frequently cited as generating variability in economic results between locations was the unit costs associated with particular resources. In the context of studies based on the analysis of patient-level data, regression analysis has been advocated as a means of looking at variability in economic results across locations. These methods have generally accepted that some components of resource use and outcomes are exchangeable across locations. Recent studies have also explored, in cost-effectiveness analysis, the use of tests of heterogeneity similar to those used in clinical evaluation in trials. The decision analytic model has been the main means by which cost-effectiveness has been adapted from trial to non-trial locations. Most models have focused on changes to the cost side of the analysis, but it is clear that the effectiveness side may also need to be adapted between locations. There have been weaknesses in some aspects of the reporting in applied cost-effectiveness studies. These may limit decision-makers' ability to judge the relevance of a study to their specific situations. The case study demonstrated the potential value of multilevel modelling (MLM). Where clustering exists by location (e.g. centre or country), MLM can facilitate correct estimates of the uncertainty in cost-effectiveness results, and also a means of estimating location-specific cost-effectiveness. The review of applied economic studies based on decision analytic models showed that few studies were explicit about their target decision-maker(s)/jurisdictions. The studies in the review generally made more effort to ensure that their cost inputs were specific to their target jurisdiction than their effectiveness parameters. Standard sensitivity analysis was the main way of dealing with uncertainty in the models, although few studies looked explicitly at variability between locations. The modelling case study illustrated how effectiveness and cost data can be made location-specific. In particular, on the effectiveness side, the example showed the separation of location-specific baseline events and pooled estimates of relative treatment effect, where the latter are assumed exchangeable across locations. A large number of factors are mentioned in the literature that might be expected to generate variation in the cost-effectiveness of healthcare interventions across locations. Several papers have demonstrated differences in the volume and cost of resource use between locations, but few studies have looked at variability in outcomes. In applied trial-based cost-effectiveness studies, few studies provide sufficient evidence for decision-makers to establish the relevance or to adjust the results of the study to their location of interest. Very few studies utilised statistical methods formally to assess the variability in results between locations. In applied economic studies based on decision models, most studies either stated their target decision-maker/jurisdiction or provided sufficient information from which this could be inferred. There was a greater tendency to ensure that cost inputs were specific to the target jurisdiction than clinical parameters. Methods to assess generalisability and variability in economic evaluation studies have been discussed extensively in the literature relating to both trial-based and modelling studies. Regression-based methods are likely to offer a systematic approach to quantifying variability in patient-level data. In particular, MLM has the potential to facilitate estimates of cost-effectiveness, which both reflect the variation in costs and outcomes between locations and also enable the consistency of cost-effectiveness estimates between locations to be assessed directly. Decision analytic models will retain an important role in adapting the results of cost-effectiveness studies between locations. Recommendations for further research include: the development of methods of evidence synthesis which model the exchangeability of data across locations and allow for the additional uncertainty in this process; assessment of alternative approaches to specifying multilevel models to the analysis of cost-effectiveness data alongside multilocation randomised trials; identification of a range of appropriate covariates relating to locations (e.g. hospitals) in multilevel models; and further assessment of the role of econometric methods (e.g. selection models) for cost-effectiveness analysis alongside observational datasets, and to increase the generalisability of randomised trials.

Economic analyses to support decisions about HPV vaccination in low- and middle-income countries: a consensus report and guide for analysts.

PubMed

Jit, Mark; Levin, Carol; Brisson, Marc; Levin, Ann; Resch, Stephen; Berkhof, Johannes; Kim, Jane; Hutubessy, Raymond

2013-01-30

Low- and middle-income countries need to consider economic issues such as cost-effectiveness, affordability and sustainability before introducing a program for human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination. However, many such countries lack the technical capacity and data to conduct their own analyses. Analysts informing policy decisions should address the following questions: 1) Is an economic analysis needed? 2) Should analyses address costs, epidemiological outcomes, or both? 3) If costs are considered, what sort of analysis is needed? 4) If outcomes are considered, what sort of model should be used? 5) How complex should the analysis be? 6) How should uncertainty be captured? 7) How should model results be communicated? Selecting the appropriate analysis is essential to ensure that all the important features of the decision problem are correctly represented, but that the analyses are not more complex than necessary. This report describes the consensus of an expert group convened by the World Health Organization, prioritizing key issues to be addressed when considering economic analyses to support HPV vaccine introduction in these countries.

Socioeconomic Forecasting

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2012-05-01

The role of the REMI Policy Insight+ model in socioeconomic forecasting and economic impact analysis of transportation projects was assessed. The REMI : PI+ model is consistent with the state of the practice in forecasting and impact analysis. REMI P...

Socioeconomic forecasting.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2012-05-01

The role of the REMI Policy Insight+ model in socioeconomic forecasting and economic impact analysis of transportation projects was assessed. The REMI : PI+ model is consistent with the state of the practice in forecasting and impact analysis. REMI P...

Economic evaluation of a solar hot-water-system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1981-01-01

Analysis shows economic benefits at six representative sites using actual data from Tempe, Arizona and San Diego, California installations. Model is two-tank cascade water heater with flat-plate collector array for single-family residences. Performances are forecast for Albuquerque, New Mexico; Fort Worth, Texas; Madison, Wisconsin; and Washington, D.C. Costs are compared to net energy savings using variables for each site's environmental conditions, loads, fuel costs, and other economic factors; uncertainty analysis is included.

[Liability for medical malpractice: an economic approach].

PubMed

Carles, M

2003-01-01

In recent years, changes in the organization of healthcare institutions and the increased number of medical malpractice claims have revealed the need to study the concept of medical responsibility and the repercussion of these changes on healthcare provision. To date, discussion has focussed on legal aspects and economic implications have been largely ignored.The present article reviews studies that have performed an economic analysis the subject. Firstly, we examine studies that gradually introduce the concepts of uncertainty, risk aversion and moral hazard. Secondly, in the healthcare environment, we pay particular attention to models that include new arguments on professionals' objective duties or to bargaining models when there is asymmetric information. Finally, we consider the medical malpractice insurance market and investigate how reputation and the possibilities of exercising defensive medicine influence healthcare provision. Our analysis suggests that, due to the characteristics of the healthcare market, the models proposed by the economy of information are very useful for performing economic analyses of liability in medical malpractice. However, alternative hypotheses also need to be formulated so that these models can be adapted to the specific characteristics of different health systems.

Engineering Analysis and Economic Evaluation of the Synthesis of Composite CuO/ZnO/ZrO2 Nanocatalyst

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nandiyanto, A. B. D.; Hayati, W. R.; Aziz, T. A.; Ragadhita, R.; Abdullah, A. G.; Widiaty, I.

2018-02-01

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the synthesis process of composite CuO/ZnO/ZrO2 (CZZ) nanocatalyst. The CZZ nanocatalyst is used as a catalyst in the hydrogenation reaction, which is used to convert harmful CO2 gas into liquid fuels such as methanol. In this study, CZZ produced using the sol-gel autocombustion method was selected as a model of the production procedure. The evaluation was conducted into two factors: engineering and economic analysis. Engineering analysis was analyzed based on the available apparatuses and raw materials in online web. Then, these data were used and compared with the mass balance approximation. The economic analysis was done using several economic parameters, including such as gross margin, internal rate return, payback period, cumulative net value, break even point (BEP), profitability index on sales to investment. Engineering analysis showed the present method can be applied using available apparatuses and raw materials in market. Economic analysis result confirmed that the present project is profitable. The analysis concluded that the present project for the production of CZZ nanocatalyst is prospective in small scale industry and profitable (by positive values in all economic parameters).

Improving models of democracy: the example of lagged effects of economic development, education, and gender equality.

PubMed

Balaev, Mikhail

2014-07-01

The author examines how time delayed effects of economic development, education, and gender equality influence political democracy. Literature review shows inadequate understanding of lagged effects, which raises methodological and theoretical issues with the current quantitative studies of democracy. Using country-years as a unit of analysis, the author estimates a series of OLS PCSE models for each predictor with a systematic analysis of the distributions of the lagged effects. The second set of multiple OLS PCSE regressions are estimated including all three independent variables. The results show that economic development, education, and gender have three unique trajectories of the time-delayed effects: Economic development has long-term effects, education produces continuous effects regardless of the timing, and gender equality has the most prominent immediate and short term effects. The results call for the reassessment of model specifications and theoretical setups in the quantitative studies of democracy. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

cost and benefits optimization model for fault-tolerant aircraft electronic systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1983-01-01

The factors involved in economic assessment of fault tolerant systems (FTS) and fault tolerant flight control systems (FTFCS) are discussed. Algorithms for optimization and economic analysis of FTFCS are documented.

Economic conditions, hypertension, and cardiovascular disease: analysis of the Icelandic economic collapse.

PubMed

Birgisdóttir, Kristín Helga; Jónsson, Stefán Hrafn; Ásgeirsdóttir, Tinna Laufey

2017-12-01

Previous research has found a positive short-term relationship between the 2008 collapse and hypertension in Icelandic males. With Iceland's economy experiencing a phase of economic recovery, an opportunity to pursue a longer-term analysis of the collapse has emerged. Using data from a nationally representative sample, fixed-effect estimations and mediation analyses were performed to explore the relationship between the Icelandic economic collapse in 2008 and the longer-term impact on hypertension and cardiovascular health. A sensitivity analysis was carried out with pooled logit models estimated as well as an alternative dependent variable. Our attrition analysis revealed that results for cardiovascular diseases were affected by attrition, but not results from estimations on the relationship between the economic crisis and hypertension. When compared to the boom year 2007, our results point to an increased probability of Icelandic women having hypertension in the year 2012, when the Icelandic economy had recovered substantially from the economic collapse in 2008. This represents a deviation from pre-crisis trends, thus suggesting a true economic-recovery impact on hypertension.

Scott Jenne | NREL

Science.gov Websites

Analysis Center. Areas of Expertise Techno-Economic Analysis Mechanical design 3D modeling/CAD Finite element analysis (FEA) Wave energy conversion Thermal power cycle analysis Research Interests Cost

Methods of international health technology assessment agencies for economic evaluations--a comparative analysis.

PubMed

Mathes, Tim; Jacobs, Esther; Morfeld, Jana-Carina; Pieper, Dawid

2013-09-30

The number of Health Technology Assessment (HTA) agencies increases. One component of HTAs are economic aspects. To incorporate economic aspects commonly economic evaluations are performed. A convergence of recommendations for methods of health economic evaluations between international HTA agencies would facilitate the adaption of results to different settings and avoid unnecessary expense. A first step in this direction is a detailed analysis of existing similarities and differences in recommendations to identify potential for harmonization. The objective is to provide an overview and comparison of the methodological recommendations of international HTA agencies for economic evaluations. The webpages of 127 international HTA agencies were searched for guidelines containing recommendations on methods for the preparation of economic evaluations. Additionally, the HTA agencies were requested information on methods for economic evaluations. Recommendations of the included guidelines were extracted in standardized tables according to 13 methodological aspects. All process steps were performed independently by two reviewers. Finally 25 publications of 14 HTA agencies were included in the analysis. Methods for economic evaluations vary widely. The greatest accordance could be found for the type of analysis and comparator. Cost-utility-analyses or cost-effectiveness-analyses are recommended. The comparator should continuously be usual care. Again the greatest differences were shown in the recommendations on the measurement/sources of effects, discounting and in the analysis of sensitivity. The main difference regarding effects is the focus either on efficacy or effectiveness. Recommended discounting rates range from 1.5%-5% for effects and 3%-5% for costs whereby it is mostly recommended to use the same rate for costs and effects. With respect to the analysis of sensitivity the main difference is that oftentimes the probabilistic or deterministic approach is recommended exclusively. Methods for modeling are only described vaguely and mainly with the rational that the "appropriate model" depends on the decision problem. Considering all other aspects a comparison is challenging as recommendations vary regarding detailedness and addressed issues. There is a considerable unexplainable variance in recommendations. Further effort is needed to harmonize methods for preparing economic evaluations.

Socio-economic exposure to natural disasters

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Marin, Giovanni, E-mail: giovanni.marin@uniurb.it; IRCrES - CNR, Research Institute on Sustainable Economic Growth, Via Corti 12, 20133 - Milano; SEEDS, Ferrara

Even though the correct assessment of risks is a key aspect of the risk management analysis, we argue that limited effort has been devoted in the assessment of comprehensive measures of economic exposure at very low scale. For this reason, we aim at providing a series of suitable methodologies to provide a complete and detailed list of the exposure of economic activities to natural disasters. We use Input-Output models to provide information about several socio-economic variables, such as population density, employment density, firms' turnover and capital stock, that can be seen as direct and indirect socio-economic exposure to natural disasters.more » We then provide an application to the Italian context. These measures can be easily incorporated into risk assessment models to provide a clear picture of the disaster risk for local areas. - Highlights: • Ex ante assessment of economic exposure to disasters at very low geographical scale • Assessment of the cost of natural disasters in ex-post perspective • IO model and spatial autocorrelation to get information on socio-economic variables • Indicators supporting risk assessment and risk management models.« less

Physically-based Assessment of Tropical Cyclone Damage and Economic Losses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, N.

2012-12-01

Estimating damage and economic losses caused by tropical cyclones (TC) is a topic of considerable research interest in many scientific fields, including meteorology, structural and coastal engineering, and actuarial sciences. One approach is based on the empirical relationship between TC characteristics and loss data. Another is to model the physical mechanism of TC-induced damage. In this talk we discuss about the physically-based approach to predict TC damage and losses due to extreme wind and storm surge. We first present an integrated vulnerability model, which, for the first time, explicitly models the essential mechanisms causing wind damage to residential areas during storm passage, including windborne-debris impact and the pressure-debris interaction that may lead, in a chain reaction, to structural failures (Lin and Vanmarcke 2010; Lin et al. 2010a). This model can be used to predict the economic losses in a residential neighborhood (with hundreds of buildings) during a specific TC (Yau et al. 2011) or applied jointly with a TC risk model (e.g., Emanuel et al 2008) to estimate the expected losses over long time periods. Then we present a TC storm surge risk model that has been applied to New York City (Lin et al. 2010b; Lin et al. 2012; Aerts et al. 2012), Miami-Dade County, Florida (Klima et al. 2011), Galveston, Texas (Lickley, 2012), and other coastal areas around the world (e.g., Tampa, Florida; Persian Gulf; Darwin, Australia; Shanghai, China). These physically-based models are applicable to various coastal areas and have the capability to account for the change of the climate and coastal exposure over time. We also point out that, although made computationally efficient for risk assessment, these models are not suitable for regional or global analysis, which has been a focus of the empirically-based economic analysis (e.g., Hsiang and Narita 2012). A future research direction is to simplify the physically-based models, possibly through parameterization, and make connections to the global loss data and economic analysis.

Are transnational tobacco companies' market access strategies linked to economic development models? A case study of South Korea.

PubMed

Lee, Sungkyu; Holden, Chris; Lee, Kelley

2013-01-01

Transnational tobacco companies (TTCs) have used varied strategies to access previously closed markets. Using TTCs' efforts to enter the South Korean market from the late 1980s as a case study, this article asks whether there are common patterns in these strategies that relate to the broader economic development models adopted by targeted countries. An analytical review of the existing literature on TTCs' efforts to access emerging markets was conducted to develop hypotheses relating TTCs' strategies to countries' economic development models. A case study of Korea was then undertaken based on analysis of internal tobacco industry documents. Findings were consistent with the hypothesis that TTCs' strategies in Korea were linked to Korea's export-oriented economic development model and its hostile attitude towards foreign investment. A fuller understanding of TTCs' strategies for expansion globally can be derived by locating them within the economic development models of specific countries or regions. Of foremost importance is the need for governments to carefully balance economic and public health policies when considering liberalisation.

Are transnational tobacco companies’ market access strategies linked to economic development models? A case study of South Korea

PubMed Central

Lee, Sungkyu; Holden, Chris; Lee, Kelley

2013-01-01

Transnational tobacco companies (TTCs) have used varied strategies to access previously closed markets. Using TTCs’ efforts to enter the South Korean market from the late 1980s as a case study, this article asks whether there are common patterns in these strategies that relate to the broader economic development models adopted by targeted countries. An analytical review of the existing literature on TTCs’ efforts to access emerging markets was conducted to develop hypotheses relating TTCs’ strategies to countries’ economic development models. A case study of Korea was then undertaken based on analysis of internal tobacco industry documents. Findings were consistent with the hypothesis that TTCs’ strategies in Korea were linked to Korea’s export-oriented economic development model and its hostile attitude toward foreign investment. A fuller understanding of TTCs’ strategies for expansion globally can be derived by locating them within the economic development models of specific countries or regions. Of foremost importance is the need for governments to carefully balance economic and public health policies when considering liberalisation. PMID:23327486

The clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of testing for cytochrome P450 polymorphisms in patients with schizophrenia treated with antipsychotics: a systematic review and economic evaluation.

PubMed

Fleeman, N; McLeod, C; Bagust, A; Beale, S; Boland, A; Dundar, Y; Jorgensen, A; Payne, K; Pirmohamed, M; Pushpakom, S; Walley, T; de Warren-Penny, P; Dickson, R

2010-01-01

To determine whether testing for cytochrome P450 (CYP) polymorphisms in adults entering antipsychotic treatment for schizophrenia leads to improvement in outcomes, is useful in medical, personal or public health decision-making, and is a cost-effective use of health-care resources. The following electronic databases were searched for relevant published literature: Cochrane Controlled Trials Register, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effectiveness, EMBASE, Health Technology Assessment database, ISI Web of Knowledge, MEDLINE, PsycINFO, NHS Economic Evaluation Database, Health Economic Evaluation Database, Cost-effectiveness Analysis (CEA) Registry and the Centre for Health Economics website. In addition, publicly available information on various genotyping tests was sought from the internet and advisory panel members. A systematic review of analytical validity, clinical validity and clinical utility of CYP testing was undertaken. Data were extracted into structured tables and narratively discussed, and meta-analysis was undertaken when possible. A review of economic evaluations of CYP testing in psychiatry and a review of economic models related to schizophrenia were also carried out. For analytical validity, 46 studies of a range of different genotyping tests for 11 different CYP polymorphisms (most commonly CYP2D6) were included. Sensitivity and specificity were high (99-100%). For clinical validity, 51 studies were found. In patients tested for CYP2D6, an association between genotype and tardive dyskinesia (including Abnormal Involuntary Movement Scale scores) was found. The only other significant finding linked the CYP2D6 genotype to parkinsonism. One small unpublished study met the inclusion criteria for clinical utility. One economic evaluation assessing the costs and benefits of CYP testing for prescribing antidepressants and 28 economic models of schizophrenia were identified; none was suitable for developing a model to examine the cost-effectiveness of CYP testing. Tests for determining genotypes appear to be accurate although not all aspects of analytical validity were reported. Given the absence of convincing evidence from clinical validity studies, the lack of clinical utility and economic studies, and the unsuitability of published schizophrenia models, no model was developed; instead key features and data requirements for economic modelling are presented. Recommendations for future research cover both aspects of research quality and data that will be required to inform the development of future economic models.

A dynamic factor model of the evaluation of the financial crisis in Turkey.

PubMed

Sezgin, F; Kinay, B

2010-01-01

Factor analysis has been widely used in economics and finance in situations where a relatively large number of variables are believed to be driven by few common causes of variation. Dynamic factor analysis (DFA) which is a combination of factor and time series analysis, involves autocorrelation matrices calculated from multivariate time series. Dynamic factor models were traditionally used to construct economic indicators, macroeconomic analysis, business cycles and forecasting. In recent years, dynamic factor models have become more popular in empirical macroeconomics. They have more advantages than other methods in various respects. Factor models can for instance cope with many variables without running into scarce degrees of freedom problems often faced in regression-based analysis. In this study, a model which determines the effect of the global crisis on Turkey is proposed. The main aim of the paper is to analyze how several macroeconomic quantities show an alteration before the evolution of the crisis and to decide if a crisis can be forecasted or not.

Conceptualizing race in economic models of medical utilization: a case study of community-based elders and the emergency room.

PubMed Central

White-Means, S I

1995-01-01

There is no consensus on the appropriate conceptualization of race in economic models of health care. This is because race is rarely the primary focus for analysis of the market. This article presents an alternative framework for conceptualizing race in health economic models. A case study is analyzed to illustrate the value of the alternative conceptualization. The case study findings clearly document the importance of model stratification according to race. Moreover, the findings indicate that empirical results are improved when medical utilization models are refined in a way that reflects the unique experiences of the population that is studied. PMID:7721593

The Role of Culture, Competitiveness and Economic Performance in Explaining Academic Performance: A Global Market Analysis for International Student Segmentation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Baumann, Chris; Hamin

2011-01-01

A nation's culture, competitiveness and economic performance explain academic performance. Partial Least Squares (PLS) testing of 2252 students shows culture affects competitiveness and academic performance. Culture and economic performance each explain 32%; competitiveness 36%. The model predicts academic performance when culture, competitiveness…

Economics of human performance and systems total ownership cost.

PubMed

Onkham, Wilawan; Karwowski, Waldemar; Ahram, Tareq Z

2012-01-01

Financial costs of investing in people is associated with training, acquisition, recruiting, and resolving human errors have a significant impact on increased total ownership costs. These costs can also affect the exaggerate budgets and delayed schedules. The study of human performance economical assessment in the system acquisition process enhances the visibility of hidden cost drivers which support program management informed decisions. This paper presents the literature review of human total ownership cost (HTOC) and cost impacts on overall system performance. Economic value assessment models such as cost benefit analysis, risk-cost tradeoff analysis, expected value of utility function analysis (EV), growth readiness matrix, multi-attribute utility technique, and multi-regressions model were introduced to reflect the HTOC and human performance-technology tradeoffs in terms of the dollar value. The human total ownership regression model introduces to address the influencing human performance cost component measurement. Results from this study will increase understanding of relevant cost drivers in the system acquisition process over the long term.

The total assessment profile, volume 2. [including societal impact, cost effectiveness, and economic analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Leininger, G.; Jutila, S.; King, J.; Muraco, W.; Hansell, J.; Lindeen, J.; Franckowiak, E.; Flaschner, A.

1975-01-01

Appendices are presented which include discussions of interest formulas, factors in regionalization, parametric modeling of discounted benefit-sacrifice streams, engineering economic calculations, and product innovation. For Volume 1, see .

Strategies for Evaluating a Freshman Studies Program.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ketkar, Kusum; Bennett, Shelby D.

1989-01-01

The study developed an economic model for the evaluation of Seaton Hall University's freshman studies program. Two techniques used to evaluate the economic success of the program are break-even analysis and elasticity coefficient. (Author/MLW)

A systematic review of health economic models of opioid agonist therapies in maintenance treatment of non-prescription opioid dependence.

PubMed

Chetty, Mersha; Kenworthy, James J; Langham, Sue; Walker, Andrew; Dunlop, William C N

2017-02-24

Opioid dependence is a chronic condition with substantial health, economic and social costs. The study objective was to conduct a systematic review of published health-economic models of opioid agonist therapy for non-prescription opioid dependence, to review the different modelling approaches identified, and to inform future modelling studies. Literature searches were conducted in March 2015 in eight electronic databases, supplemented by hand-searching reference lists and searches on six National Health Technology Assessment Agency websites. Studies were included if they: investigated populations that were dependent on non-prescription opioids and were receiving opioid agonist or maintenance therapy; compared any pharmacological maintenance intervention with any other maintenance regimen (including placebo or no treatment); and were health-economic models of any type. A total of 18 unique models were included. These used a range of modelling approaches, including Markov models (n = 4), decision tree with Monte Carlo simulations (n = 3), decision analysis (n = 3), dynamic transmission models (n = 3), decision tree (n = 1), cohort simulation (n = 1), Bayesian (n = 1), and Monte Carlo simulations (n = 2). Time horizons ranged from 6 months to lifetime. The most common evaluation was cost-utility analysis reporting cost per quality-adjusted life-year (n = 11), followed by cost-effectiveness analysis (n = 4), budget-impact analysis/cost comparison (n = 2) and cost-benefit analysis (n = 1). Most studies took the healthcare provider's perspective. Only a few models included some wider societal costs, such as productivity loss or costs of drug-related crime, disorder and antisocial behaviour. Costs to individuals and impacts on family and social networks were not included in any model. A relatively small number of studies of varying quality were found. Strengths and weaknesses relating to model structure, inputs and approach were identified across all the studies. There was no indication of a single standard emerging as a preferred approach. Most studies omitted societal costs, an important issue since the implications of drug abuse extend widely beyond healthcare services. Nevertheless, elements from previous models could together form a framework for future economic evaluations in opioid agonist therapy including all relevant costs and outcomes. This could more adequately support decision-making and policy development for treatment of non-prescription opioid dependence.

An economic analysis of life expectancy by gender with application to the United States.

PubMed

Leung, Michael C M; Zhang, Jie; Zhang, Junsen

2004-07-01

This paper presents an economic model to explain the behavior of life expectancy of both sexes. It explicitly examines the relationship between the gender gap in life expectancy and the gender gap in pay. It shows that as the latter narrows over the course of economic development, the former may initially expand but will eventually shrink. Simulation results from our model accord with the behavior of life expectancy for both sexes since the 1940s in the United States.

Economic Model Cost-Satisfaction in Inclusive Education. Based on Research Made in Georgia

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mantaluta, Ovidiu; Rukhadze, Nino

2008-01-01

This research comprises a brief analysis of the economic model design, projected for poor countries, where complex assessments of the health status, education outcomes and motivation for children with disabilities are impossible to be done; is possible to be applied on a national scale in Georgia, if the actual government has the necessary…

Solar energy system economic evaluation. Final report for SEECO Lincoln, Lincoln, Nebraska

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

None

1980-09-01

The economic analysis of the solar energy system that was installed at Lincoln, Nebraska is developed for this and four other sites typical of a wide range of environmental and economic conditions in the continental United States. This analysis is accomplished based on the technical and economic models in the f-chart design procedure with inputs based on the characteristics of the installed system and local conditions. The results are expressed in terms of the economic parameters of present worth of system cost over a projected twenty year life: life cycle savings, year of positive savings and year of payback formore » the optimized solar energy system at each of the analysis sites. The sensitivity of the economic evaluation to uncertainties in constituent system and economic variables is also investigated. Although budget constraints preclude an economic reevaluation of each of the sites, a similar site, Carlsbad, New Nexico, was done. When 1985 escalated values for fuel, costs, mass production, and improved design and installation techniques were applied, a significantly higher degree of savings was realized.« less

The Interdictor’s Lot: A Dynamic Model of the Market for Drug Smuggling Services

DTIC Science & Technology

1988-02-01

A RAND NOTE The Interdictor’s Lot: A Dynamic Model of the 00 Market for Drug Smuggling Services Jonathan A. K. Cave, Peter Reuter February 1988. DTIC...Dynamic Model of the Interim Market for Drug Smuggling Services________________ 6. PERFORMING ORG. REPORT NUMBER 7, AUTHOR(s) s. CONTRACT OR GRANT...Economic Models - Narcotics,. Economic Analysis, Interdictions- Smuggling Law Enforcement U - Drugs. 20 ABSTRACT (Continue on ,e~erse side It necessary

Energy. Application of solar energy in dwellings: A technical and economical analysis for the European community

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

1980-03-01

The technical possibilities and economical limitations of solar heating systems for the application in swimming pools, hot water preparation, space heating and air conditioning were investigated. This analysis was performed for dwellings with special consideration of the climatic differences in each community. The computer program, which was used for solar system calculations, and all mathematical models, for technical and economical analysis were elucidated. In the technical and economical analysis, the most suitable solar system sizes for each community was determined. Four types of solar collectors were investigated. The single glass selective collector proved to be the most cost effective collector in all the above applications, provided the the additional cost for the selective coating is not more than 20DM/cu. From the results of the analysis certain recommendations were derived, which can improve the rapid implementation of solar heating systems into the market.

Development of Probabilistic Socio-Economic Emissions Scenarios (2012)

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The purpose of this analysis is to help overcome these limitations through the development of a publically available library of socio-economic-emissions projections derived from a systematic examination of uncertainty in key underlying model parameters, w

A one health framework for estimating the economic costs of zoonotic diseases on society.

PubMed

Narrod, Clare; Zinsstag, Jakob; Tiongco, Marites

2012-06-01

This article presents an integrated epidemiological and economic framework for assessing zoonoses using a "one health" concept. The framework allows for an understanding of the cross-sector economic impact of zoonoses using modified risk analysis and detailing a range of analytical tools. The goal of the framework is to link the analysis outputs of animal and human disease transmission models, economic impact models and evaluation of risk management options to gain improved understanding of factors affecting the adoption of risk management strategies so that investment planning includes the most promising interventions (or sets of interventions) in an integrated fashion. A more complete understanding of the costs of the disease and the costs and benefits of control measures would promote broader implementation of the most efficient and effective control measures, contributing to improved animal and human health, better livelihood outcomes for the poor and macroeconomic growth.

Cost-benefit analysis model of badger (Meles meles) culling to reduce cattle herd tuberculosis breakdowns in Britain, with particular reference to badger perturbation.

PubMed

Wilkinson, D; Bennett, R; McFarlane, I; Rushton, S; Shirley, M; Smith, G C

2009-10-01

Bovine tuberculosis (TB) is an important economic disease. Badgers (Meles meles) are the wildlife source implicated in many cattle outbreaks of TB in Britain, and extensive badger control is a controversial option to reduce the disease. A badger and cattle population model was developed, simulating TB epidemiology; badger ecology, including postcull social perturbation; and TB-related farm management. An economic cost-benefit module was integrated into the model to assess whether badger control offers economic benefits. Model results strongly indicate that although, if perturbation were restricted, extensive badger culling could reduce rates in cattle, overall an economic loss would be more likely than a benefit. Perturbation of the badger population was a key factor determining success or failure of control. The model highlighted some important knowledge gaps regarding both the spatial and temporal characteristics of perturbation that warrant further research.

Survival modeling for the estimation of transition probabilities in model-based economic evaluations in the absence of individual patient data: a tutorial.

PubMed

Diaby, Vakaramoko; Adunlin, Georges; Montero, Alberto J

2014-02-01

Survival modeling techniques are increasingly being used as part of decision modeling for health economic evaluations. As many models are available, it is imperative for interested readers to know about the steps in selecting and using the most suitable ones. The objective of this paper is to propose a tutorial for the application of appropriate survival modeling techniques to estimate transition probabilities, for use in model-based economic evaluations, in the absence of individual patient data (IPD). An illustration of the use of the tutorial is provided based on the final progression-free survival (PFS) analysis of the BOLERO-2 trial in metastatic breast cancer (mBC). An algorithm was adopted from Guyot and colleagues, and was then run in the statistical package R to reconstruct IPD, based on the final PFS analysis of the BOLERO-2 trial. It should be emphasized that the reconstructed IPD represent an approximation of the original data. Afterwards, we fitted parametric models to the reconstructed IPD in the statistical package Stata. Both statistical and graphical tests were conducted to verify the relative and absolute validity of the findings. Finally, the equations for transition probabilities were derived using the general equation for transition probabilities used in model-based economic evaluations, and the parameters were estimated from fitted distributions. The results of the application of the tutorial suggest that the log-logistic model best fits the reconstructed data from the latest published Kaplan-Meier (KM) curves of the BOLERO-2 trial. Results from the regression analyses were confirmed graphically. An equation for transition probabilities was obtained for each arm of the BOLERO-2 trial. In this paper, a tutorial was proposed and used to estimate the transition probabilities for model-based economic evaluation, based on the results of the final PFS analysis of the BOLERO-2 trial in mBC. The results of our study can serve as a basis for any model (Markov) that needs the parameterization of transition probabilities, and only has summary KM plots available.

A comparison of economic evaluation models as applied to geothermal energy technology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ziman, G. M.; Rosenberg, L. S.

1983-01-01

Several cost estimation and financial cash flow models have been applied to a series of geothermal case studies. In order to draw conclusions about relative performance and applicability of these models to geothermal projects, the consistency of results was assessed. The model outputs of principal interest in this study were net present value, internal rate of return, or levelized breakeven price. The models used were VENVAL, a venture analysis model; the Geothermal Probabilistic Cost Model (GPC Model); the Alternative Power Systems Economic Analysis Model (APSEAM); the Geothermal Loan Guarantee Cash Flow Model (GCFM); and the GEOCOST and GEOCITY geothermal models. The case studies to which the models were applied include a geothermal reservoir at Heber, CA; a geothermal eletric power plant to be located at the Heber site; an alcohol fuels production facility to be built at Raft River, ID; and a direct-use, district heating system in Susanville, CA.

Economic analysis of model validation for a challenge problem

DOE PAGES

Paez, Paul J.; Paez, Thomas L.; Hasselman, Timothy K.

2016-02-19

It is now commonplace for engineers to build mathematical models of the systems they are designing, building, or testing. And, it is nearly universally accepted that phenomenological models of physical systems must be validated prior to use for prediction in consequential scenarios. Yet, there are certain situations in which testing only or no testing and no modeling may be economically viable alternatives to modeling and its associated testing. This paper develops an economic framework within which benefit–cost can be evaluated for modeling and model validation relative to other options. The development is presented in terms of a challenge problem. Asmore » a result, we provide a numerical example that quantifies when modeling, calibration, and validation yield higher benefit–cost than a testing only or no modeling and no testing option.« less

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Anderson, Katherine H.; Cutler, Dylan S.; Olis, Daniel R.

REopt is a techno-economic decision support model used to optimize energy systems for buildings, campuses, communities, and microgrids. The primary application of the model is for optimizing the integration and operation of behind-the-meter energy assets. This report provides an overview of the model, including its capabilities and typical applications; inputs and outputs; economic calculations; technology descriptions; and model parameters, variables, and equations. The model is highly flexible, and is continually evolving to meet the needs of each analysis. Therefore, this report is not an exhaustive description of all capabilities, but rather a summary of the core components of the model.

Pathology economic model tool: a novel approach to workflow and budget cost analysis in an anatomic pathology laboratory.

PubMed

Muirhead, David; Aoun, Patricia; Powell, Michael; Juncker, Flemming; Mollerup, Jens

2010-08-01

The need for higher efficiency, maximum quality, and faster turnaround time is a continuous focus for anatomic pathology laboratories and drives changes in work scheduling, instrumentation, and management control systems. To determine the costs of generating routine, special, and immunohistochemical microscopic slides in a large, academic anatomic pathology laboratory using a top-down approach. The Pathology Economic Model Tool was used to analyze workflow processes at The Nebraska Medical Center's anatomic pathology laboratory. Data from the analysis were used to generate complete cost estimates, which included not only materials, consumables, and instrumentation but also specific labor and overhead components for each of the laboratory's subareas. The cost data generated by the Pathology Economic Model Tool were compared with the cost estimates generated using relative value units. Despite the use of automated systems for different processes, the workflow in the laboratory was found to be relatively labor intensive. The effect of labor and overhead on per-slide costs was significantly underestimated by traditional relative-value unit calculations when compared with the Pathology Economic Model Tool. Specific workflow defects with significant contributions to the cost per slide were identified. The cost of providing routine, special, and immunohistochemical slides may be significantly underestimated by traditional methods that rely on relative value units. Furthermore, a comprehensive analysis may identify specific workflow processes requiring improvement.

Modeling human behavior in economics and social science.

PubMed

Dolfin, M; Leonida, L; Outada, N

2017-12-01

The complex interactions between human behaviors and social economic sciences is critically analyzed in this paper in view of possible applications of mathematical modeling as an attainable interdisciplinary approach to understand and simulate the aforementioned dynamics. The quest is developed along three steps: Firstly an overall analysis of social and economic sciences indicates the main requirements that a contribution of mathematical modeling should bring to these sciences; subsequently the focus moves to an overview of mathematical tools and to the selection of those which appear, according to the authors bias, appropriate to the modeling; finally, a survey of applications is presented looking ahead to research perspectives. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The Impacts of Information-Sharing Mechanisms on Spatial Market Formation Based on Agent-Based Modeling

PubMed Central

Li, Qianqian; Yang, Tao; Zhao, Erbo; Xia, Xing’ang; Han, Zhangang

2013-01-01

There has been an increasing interest in the geographic aspects of economic development, exemplified by P. Krugman’s logical analysis. We show in this paper that the geographic aspects of economic development can be modeled using multi-agent systems that incorporate multiple underlying factors. The extent of information sharing is assumed to be a driving force that leads to economic geographic heterogeneity across locations without geographic advantages or disadvantages. We propose an agent-based market model that considers a spectrum of different information-sharing mechanisms: no information sharing, information sharing among friends and pheromone-like information sharing. Finally, we build a unified model that accommodates all three of these information-sharing mechanisms based on the number of friends who can share information. We find that the no information-sharing model does not yield large economic zones, and more information sharing can give rise to a power-law distribution of market size that corresponds to the stylized fact of city size and firm size distributions. The simulations show that this model is robust. This paper provides an alternative approach to studying economic geographic development, and this model could be used as a test bed to validate the detailed assumptions that regulate real economic agglomeration. PMID:23484007

Dependency, democracy, and infant mortality: a quantitative, cross-national analysis of less developed countries.

PubMed

Shandra, John M; Nobles, Jenna; London, Bruce; Williamson, John B

2004-07-01

This study presents quantitative, sociological models designed to account for cross-national variation in infant mortality rates. We consider variables linked to four different theoretical perspectives: the economic modernization, social modernization, political modernization, and dependency perspectives. The study is based on a panel regression analysis of a sample of 59 developing countries. Our preliminary analysis based on additive models replicates prior studies to the extent that we find that indicators linked to economic and social modernization have beneficial effects on infant mortality. We also find support for hypotheses derived from the dependency perspective suggesting that multinational corporate penetration fosters higher levels of infant mortality. Subsequent analysis incorporating interaction effects suggest that the level of political democracy conditions the effects of dependency relationships based upon exports, investments from multinational corporations, and international lending institutions. Transnational economic linkages associated with exports, multinational corporations, and international lending institutions adversely affect infant mortality more strongly at lower levels of democracy than at higher levels of democracy: intranational, political factors interact with the international, economic forces to affect infant mortality. We conclude with some brief policy recommendations and suggestions for the direction of future research.

Analytical Problems and Suggestions in the Analysis of Behavioral Economic Demand Curves.

PubMed

Yu, Jihnhee; Liu, Liu; Collins, R Lorraine; Vincent, Paula C; Epstein, Leonard H

2014-01-01

Behavioral economic demand curves (Hursh, Raslear, Shurtleff, Bauman, & Simmons, 1988) are innovative approaches to characterize the relationships between consumption of a substance and its price. In this article, we investigate common analytical issues in the use of behavioral economic demand curves, which can cause inconsistent interpretations of demand curves, and then we provide methodological suggestions to address those analytical issues. We first demonstrate that log transformation with different added values for handling zeros changes model parameter estimates dramatically. Second, demand curves are often analyzed using an overparameterized model that results in an inefficient use of the available data and a lack of assessment of the variability among individuals. To address these issues, we apply a nonlinear mixed effects model based on multivariate error structures that has not been used previously to analyze behavioral economic demand curves in the literature. We also propose analytical formulas for the relevant standard errors of derived values such as P max, O max, and elasticity. The proposed model stabilizes the derived values regardless of using different added increments and provides substantially smaller standard errors. We illustrate the data analysis procedure using data from a relative reinforcement efficacy study of simulated marijuana purchasing.

The Impacts and Economic Costs of Climate Change in Agriculture and the Costs and Benefits of Adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iglesias, A.; Quiroga, S.; Garrote, L.; Cunningham, R.

2012-04-01

This paper provides monetary estimates of the effects of agricultural adaptation to climate change in Europe. The model computes spatial crop productivity changes as a response to climate change linking biophysical and socioeconomic components. It combines available data sets of crop productivity changes under climate change (Iglesias et al 2011, Ciscar et al 2011), statistical functions of productivity response to water and nitrogen inputs, catchment level water availability, and environmental policy scenarios. Future global change scenarios are derived from several socio-economic futures of representative concentration pathways and regional climate models. The economic valuation is conducted by using GTAP general equilibrium model. The marginal productivity changes has been used as an input for the economic general equilibrium model in order to analyse the economic impact of the agricultural changes induced by climate change in the world. The study also includes the analysis of an adaptive capacity index computed by using the socio-economic results of GTAP. The results are combined to prioritize agricultural adaptation policy needs in Europe.

Cyanide removal from industrial wastewater by cross-flow nanofiltration: transport modeling and economic evaluation.

PubMed

Pal, Parimal; Bhakta, Pamela; Kumar, Ramesh

2014-08-01

A modeling and simulation study, along with an economic analysis, was carried out for the separation of cyanide from industrial wastewater using a flat sheet cross-flow nanofiltration membrane module. With the addition of a pre-microfiltration step, nanofiltration was carried out using real coke wastewater under different operating conditions. Under the optimum operating pressure of 13 bars and a pH of 10.0, a rate of more than 95% separation of cyanide was achieved. That model predictions agreed very well with the experimental findings, as is evident in the Willmott d-index value (> 0.95) and relative error (< 0.1). Studies were carried out with industrial wastewater instead of a synthetic solution, and an economic analysis was also done, considering the capacity of a running coking plant. The findings are likely to be very useful in the scale-up and design of industrial plants for the treatment of cyanide-bearing wastewater.

A health economic model of breakthrough pain.

PubMed

Abernethy, Amy P; Wheeler, Jane L; Fortner, Barry V

2008-05-01

Although the literature adequately addresses the biologic basis, epidemiology, and management of breakthrough pain (BTP), it does not yet describe the full impact of this troubling, widespread phenomenon. The risks of a scanty understanding of BTP impact are failure to take preventive measures, underdiagnosis, undertreatment, and inappropriate management. Studies to date of the impact of BTP have followed pharmacoeconomic approaches. Building on prior efforts, this paper develops a more comprehensive health economic model that encompasses the full spectrum of costs, outcomes, risks and benefits associated with BTP and its management. The authors provide a rubric within which stakeholders--including providers, institutional leaders, administrators, and policymakers--can systematically balance the myriad potential effects of different treatment scenarios to guide decision-making. The paper then extends this model to the population level, providing a template for health economic analysis of alternate strategies for managing BTP, and delineating steps for accomplishing the analysis.

Models of Temporal Discounting 1937-2000: An Interdisciplinary Exchange between Economics and Psychology.

PubMed

Grüne-Yanoff, Till

2015-12-01

Today's models of temporal discounting are the result of multiple interdisciplinary exchanges between psychology and economics. Although these exchanges did not result in an integrated discipline, they had important effects on all disciplines involved. The paper describes these exchanges from the 1930s onwards, focusing on two episodes in particular: an attempted synthesis by psychiatrist George Ainslie and others in the 1970s; and the attempted application of this new discounting model by a generation of economists and psychologists in the 1980s, which ultimately ended in the diversity of measurements disappointment. I draw four main conclusions. First, multiple notions of temporal discounting must be conceptually distinguished. Second, behavioral economics is not an integration or unification of psychology and economics. Third, the analysis identifies some central disciplinary markers that distinguish modeling strategies in economics and psychology. Finally, it offers a case of interdisciplinary success that does not fit the currently dominant account of interdisciplinarity as integration.

Support from spouse as mediator and moderator of the disruptive influence of economic strain on parenting.

PubMed

Simons, R L; Lorenz, F O; Conger, R D; Wu, C I

1992-10-01

A model is presented regarding associations between economic strain, support from spouse, and quality of parenting. The model was tested using a sample of 451 2-parent families, each of which included a seventh grader (age 12-13). Parent and adolescent reports, as well as observational ratings, were used as indicators of constructs. Analysis using structural equation modeling procedures indicated that level of spouse support was positively related to supportive parenting, whereas economic strain operated to undermine parental involvement. As posited, economic strain produced its effect through a direct relation with parenting and indirectly through its association with spouse support. These findings held for mothers and fathers, regardless of the gender of the child. Spouse support moderated the impact of economic strain on supportive parenting for mothers but not fathers. Possible explanations for this gender difference are presented.

The economics of protecting tiger populations: Linking household behavior to poaching and prey depletion

USGS Publications Warehouse

Damania, R.; Stringer, R.; Karanth, K.U.; Stith, B.

2003-01-01

The tiger (Panthera tigris) is classified as endangered and populations continue to decline. This paper presents a formal economic analysis of the two most imminent threats to the survival of wild tigers: poaching tigers and hunting their prey. A model is developed to examine interactions between tigers and farm households living in and around tiger habitats. The analysis extends the existing literature on tiger demography, incorporating predator-prey interactions and exploring the sensitivity of tiger populations to key economic parameters. The analysis aims to contribute to policy debates on how best to protect one of the world's most endangered wild cats.

Development of a decision model for the techno-economic assessment of municipal solid waste utilization pathways.

PubMed

Khan, Md Mohib-Ul-Haque; Jain, Siddharth; Vaezi, Mahdi; Kumar, Amit

2016-02-01

Economic competitiveness is one of the key factors in making decisions towards the development of waste conversion facilities and devising a sustainable waste management strategy. The goal of this study is to develop a framework, as well as to develop and demonstrate a comprehensive techno-economic model to help county and municipal decision makers in establishing waste conversion facilities. The user-friendly data-intensive model, called the FUNdamental ENgineering PrinciplEs-based ModeL for Estimation of Cost of Energy and Fuels from MSW (FUNNEL-Cost-MSW), compares nine different waste management scenarios, including landfilling and composting, in terms of economic parameters such as gate fees and return on investment. In addition, a geographic information system (GIS) model was developed to determine suitable locations for waste conversion facilities and landfill sites based on integration of environmental, social, and economic factors. Finally, a case study on Parkland County and its surrounding counties in the province of Alberta, Canada, was conducted and a sensitivity analysis was performed to assess the influence of the key technical and economic parameters on the calculated results. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Economic damages of ozone air pollution to crops using combined air quality and GIS modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vlachokostas, Ch.; Nastis, S. A.; Achillas, Ch.; Kalogeropoulos, K.; Karmiris, I.; Moussiopoulos, N.; Chourdakis, E.; Banias, G.; Limperi, N.

2010-09-01

This study aims at presenting a combined air quality and GIS modelling methodological approach in order to estimate crop damages from photochemical air pollution, depict their spatial resolution and assess the order of magnitude regarding the corresponding economic damages. The analysis is conducted within the Greater Thessaloniki Area, Greece, a Mediterranean territory which is characterised by high levels of photochemical air pollution and considerable agricultural activity. Ozone concentration fields for 2002 and for specific emission reduction scenarios for the year 2010 were estimated with the Ozone Fine Structure model in the area under consideration. Total economic damage to crops turns out to be significant and estimated to be approximately 43 M€ for the reference year. Production of cotton presents the highest economic loss, which is over 16 M€, followed by table tomato (9 M€), rice (4.2 M€), wheat (4 M€) and oilseed rape (2.8 M€) cultivations. Losses are not spread uniformly among farmers and the major losses occur in areas with valuable ozone-sensitive crops. The results are very useful for highlighting the magnitude of the total economic impacts of photochemical air pollution to the area's agricultural sector and can potentially be used for comparison with studies worldwide. Furthermore, spatial analysis of the economic damage could be of importance for governmental authorities and decision makers since it provides an indicative insight, especially if the economic instruments such as financial incentives or state subsidies to farmers are considered.

Linking Physical Climate Research and Economic Assessments of Mitigation Policies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stainforth, David; Calel, Raphael

2017-04-01

Evaluating climate change policies requires economic assessments which balance the costs and benefits of climate action. A certain class of Integrated Assessment Models (IAMS) are widely used for this type of analysis; DICE, PAGE and FUND are three of the most influential. In the economics community there has been much discussion and debate about the economic assumptions implemented within these models. Two aspects in particular have gained much attention: i) the costs of damages resulting from climate change - the so-called damage function, and ii) the choice of discount rate applied to future costs and benefits. There has, however, been rather little attention given to the consequences of the choices made in the physical climate models within these IAMS. Here we discuss the practical aspects of the implementation of the physical models in these IAMS, as well as the implications of choices made in these physical science components for economic assessments[1]. We present a simple breakdown of how these IAMS differently represent the climate system as a consequence of differing underlying physical models, different parametric assumptions (for parameters representing, for instance, feedbacks and ocean heat uptake) and different numerical approaches to solving the models. We present the physical and economic consequences of these differences and reflect on how we might better incorporate the latest physical science understanding in economic models of this type. [1] Calel, R. and Stainforth D.A., "On the Physics of Three Integrated Assessment Models", Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, in press.

Spatial analysis on future housing markets: economic development and housing implications.

PubMed

Liu, Xin; Wang, Lizhe

2014-01-01

A coupled projection method combining formal modelling and other statistical techniques was developed to delineate the relationship between economic and social drivers for net new housing allocations. Using the example of employment growth in Tyne and Wear, UK, until 2016, the empirical analysis yields housing projections at the macro- and microspatial levels (e.g., region to subregion to elected ward levels). The results have important implications for the strategic planning of locations for housing and employment, demonstrating both intuitively and quantitatively how local economic developments affect housing demand.

Spatial Analysis on Future Housing Markets: Economic Development and Housing Implications

PubMed Central

Liu, Xin; Wang, Lizhe

2014-01-01

A coupled projection method combining formal modelling and other statistical techniques was developed to delineate the relationship between economic and social drivers for net new housing allocations. Using the example of employment growth in Tyne and Wear, UK, until 2016, the empirical analysis yields housing projections at the macro- and microspatial levels (e.g., region to subregion to elected ward levels). The results have important implications for the strategic planning of locations for housing and employment, demonstrating both intuitively and quantitatively how local economic developments affect housing demand. PMID:24892097

International trade inoperability input-output model (IT-IIM): theory and application.

PubMed

Jung, Jeesang; Santos, Joost R; Haimes, Yacov Y

2009-01-01

The inoperability input-output model (IIM) has been used for analyzing disruptions due to man-made or natural disasters that can adversely affect the operation of economic systems or critical infrastructures. Taking economic perturbation for each sector as inputs, the IIM provides the degree of economic production impacts on all industry sectors as the outputs for the model. The current version of the IIM does not provide a separate analysis for the international trade component of the inoperability. If an important port of entry (e.g., Port of Los Angeles) is disrupted, then international trade inoperability becomes a highly relevant subject for analysis. To complement the current IIM, this article develops the International Trade-IIM (IT-IIM). The IT-IIM investigates the resulting international trade inoperability for all industry sectors resulting from disruptions to a major port of entry. Similar to traditional IIM analysis, the inoperability metrics that the IT-IIM provides can be used to prioritize economic sectors based on the losses they could potentially incur. The IT-IIM is used to analyze two types of direct perturbations: (1) the reduced capacity of ports of entry, including harbors and airports (e.g., a shutdown of any port of entry); and (2) restrictions on commercial goods that foreign countries trade with the base nation (e.g., embargo).

Implementation and validation of an economic module in the Be-FAST model to predict costs generated by livestock disease epidemics: Application to classical swine fever epidemics in Spain.

PubMed

Fernández-Carrión, E; Ivorra, B; Martínez-López, B; Ramos, A M; Sánchez-Vizcaíno, J M

2016-04-01

Be-FAST is a computer program based on a time-spatial stochastic spread mathematical model for studying the transmission of infectious livestock diseases within and between farms. The present work describes a new module integrated into Be-FAST to model the economic consequences of the spreading of classical swine fever (CSF) and other infectious livestock diseases within and between farms. CSF is financially one of the most damaging diseases in the swine industry worldwide. Specifically in Spain, the economic costs in the two last CSF epidemics (1997 and 2001) reached jointly more than 108 million euros. The present analysis suggests that severe CSF epidemics are associated with significant economic costs, approximately 80% of which are related to animal culling. Direct costs associated with control measures are strongly associated with the number of infected farms, while indirect costs are more strongly associated with epidemic duration. The economic model has been validated with economic information around the last outbreaks in Spain. These results suggest that our economic module may be useful for analysing and predicting economic consequences of livestock disease epidemics. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Systematic review, network meta-analysis and economic evaluation of biological therapy for the management of active psoriatic arthritis.

PubMed

Cawson, Matthew Richard; Mitchell, Stephen Andrew; Knight, Chris; Wildey, Henry; Spurden, Dean; Bird, Alex; Orme, Michelle Elaine

2014-01-20

An updated economic evaluation was conducted to compare the cost-effectiveness of the four tumour necrosis factor (TNF)-α inhibitors adalimumab, etanercept, golimumab and infliximab in active, progressive psoriatic arthritis (PsA) where response to standard treatment has been inadequate. A systematic review was conducted to identify relevant, recently published studies and the new trial data were synthesised, via a Bayesian network meta-analysis (NMA), to estimate the relative efficacy of the TNF-α inhibitors in terms of Psoriatic Arthritis Response Criteria (PsARC) response, Health Assessment Questionnaire (HAQ) scores and Psoriasis Area and Severity Index (PASI). A previously developed economic model was updated with the new meta-analysis results and current cost data. The model was adapted to delineate patients by PASI 50%, 75% and 90% response rates to differentiate between psoriasis outcomes. All four licensed TNF-α inhibitors were significantly more effective than placebo in achieving PsARC response in patients with active PsA. Adalimumab, etanercept and infliximab were significantly more effective than placebo in improving HAQ scores in patients who had achieved a PsARC response and in improving HAQ scores in PsARC non-responders. In an analysis using 1,000 model simulations, on average etanercept was the most cost-effective treatment and, at the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence willingness-to-pay threshold of between £20,000 to £30,000, etanercept is the preferred option. The economic analysis agrees with the conclusions from the previous models, in that biologics are shown to be cost-effective for treating patients with active PsA compared with the conventional management strategy. In particular, etanercept is cost-effective compared with the other biologic treatments.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

The model is designed to enable decision makers to compare the economics of geothermal projects with the economics of alternative energy systems at an early stage in the decision process. The geothermal engineering and economic feasibility computer model (GEEF) is written in FORTRAN IV language and can be run on a mainframe or a mini-computer system. An abbreviated version of the model is being developed for usage in conjunction with a programmable desk calculator. The GEEF model has two main segments, namely (i) the engineering design/cost segment and (ii) the economic analysis segment. In the engineering segment, the model determinesmore » the numbers of production and injection wells, heat exchanger design, operating parameters for the system, requirement of supplementary system (to augment the working fluid temperature if the resource temperature is not sufficiently high), and the fluid flow rates. The model can handle single stage systems as well as two stage cascaded systems in which the second stage may involve a space heating application after a process heat application in the first stage.« less

Hydro-economic modelling in mining catchments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ossa Moreno, J. S.; McIntyre, N.; Rivera, D.; Smart, J. C. R.

2017-12-01

Hydro-economic models are gaining momentum because of their capacity to model both the physical processes related to water supply, and socio-economic factors determining water demand. This is particularly valuable in the midst of the large uncertainty upon future climate conditions and social trends. Agriculture, urban uses and environmental flows have received a lot of attention from researchers, as these tend to be the main consumers of water in most catchments. Mine water demand, although very important in several small and medium-sized catchments worldwide, has received less attention and only few models have attempted to reproduce its dynamics with other users. This paper describes an on-going project that addresses this gap, by developing a hydro-economic model in the upper Aconcagua River in Chile. This is a mountain catchment with large scale mining and hydro-power users at high altitudes, and irrigation areas in a downstream valley. Relevant obstacles to the model included the lack of input climate data, which is a common feature in several mining areas, the complex hydrological processes in the area and the difficulty of quantifying the value of water used by mines. A semi-distributed model developed within the Water Evaluation and Planning System (WEAP), was calibrated to reproduce water supply, and this was complemented with an analysis of the value of water for mining based on two methods; water markets and an analysis of its production processes. Agriculture and other users were included through methods commonly used in similar models. The outputs help understanding the value of water in the catchment, and its sensitivity to changes in climate variables, market prices, environmental regulations and changes in the production of minerals, crops and energy. The results of the project highlight the importance of merging hydrology and socio-economic calculations in mining regions, in order to better understand trade-offs and cost of opportunity of using water for an economic activity with high revenues, averse to water risks and with potentially large catchment impacts.

Climate change and socio-economic scenarios, land use modelling implications on water resources in an inner alpine area, Switzerland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rey, Emmanuel; Schneider, Flurina; Liniger, Hanspeter; Weingartner, Rolf; Herweg, Karl

2014-05-01

The MontanAqua project aims to study the water resources management in the region Sierre-Montana (Valais, Switzerland). Land use is known to have an influence on the water resources (soil moisture dynamic, soil sealing, surface runoff and deep percolation). Thus land use modelling is of importance for the water resources management. An actual land use map was produced using infrared imagery (Niklaus 2012, Fig.1). Land use changes are known to be mainly drived by socio-economic factors as well as climatic factors (Dolman et al. 2003). Potential future Land uses was separatly predicted according to 1-. socio-economic and 2-. climatic/abiotic drivers : 1. 4 socio-economic scenarios were developped with stakeholders (Schneider et al. 2013) between 2010 and 2012. We modeled those socio-economic scenarios into a GIS application using Python programming (ModelBuilder in ArcGIS 10) to get a cartographic transcription of the wishes of the stakeholders for their region in 2050. 2. Uncorrelated climatic and abiotic drivers were used in a BIOMOD2 (Georges et al. 2013) framework. 4 models were used: Maximum Entropy (MAXENT), Multiple Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS), Classification Tree Analysis (CTA) and the Flexible Discriminant Analysis (FDA) to predict grassland, alpine pasture, vineyards and forest in our study region. Climatic scenarios were then introduced into the models to predict potential land use in 2050 driven only by climatic and abiotic factors The comparison of all the outputs demonstrates that the socio-economic drivers will have a more important impact in the region than the climatic drivers (e.g. -70% grassland surface for the worst socio-economic scenario vs. -40% of grassland surface for the worst climatic models). Further analysis also brings out the sensitivity of the grassland/alpine pasture system to the climate change and to socio-economic changes. Future work will be to cross the different land use maps obtained by the two model types and to use them to implement soil moisture and evaporation data for the near-future in the region Sierre-Montana. REFERENCES Niklaus M. 2012. An Object-oriented Approach for Mapping Current Land Use/Land Cover in the Study Area Crans-Montana-Sierre, Valais. MSc, Geography Institute, University of Bern Dolman A.J., Verhagen A. & Rovers C.A. 2003. Global environmental change and land use. Kluwer Academic Publisher. Dordrecht. Schneider F. & Rist S. 2013. Envisioning sustainable water futures in a transdisciplinary learning process: combining normative, explorative, and participatory scenario approaches. Sustainability Science, in press. Georges D. & Thuiller W. 2012. An example of species distribution modelling with biomod2. biomod2 version : 2.0.17

The role of energy in economic growth.

PubMed

Stern, David I

2011-02-01

This paper reviews the mainstream, resource economics, and ecological economics models of growth. A possible synthesis of energy-based and mainstream models is presented. This shows that when energy is scarce it imposes a strong constraint on the growth of the economy; however, when energy is abundant, its effect on economic growth is much reduced. The industrial revolution released the constraints on economic growth by the development of new methods of using coal and the discovery of new fossil fuel resources. Time-series analysis shows that energy and GDP cointegrate, and energy use Granger causes GDP when capital and other production inputs are included in the vector autoregression model. However, various mechanisms can weaken the links between energy and growth. Energy used per unit of economic output has declined in developed and some developing countries, owing to both technological change and a shift from poorer quality fuels, such as coal, to the use of higher quality fuels, especially electricity. Substitution of other inputs for energy and sectoral shifts in economic activity play smaller roles. © 2011 New York Academy of Sciences.

Development of economic consequence methodology for process risk analysis.

PubMed

Zadakbar, Omid; Khan, Faisal; Imtiaz, Syed

2015-04-01

A comprehensive methodology for economic consequence analysis with appropriate models for risk analysis of process systems is proposed. This methodology uses loss functions to relate process deviations in a given scenario to economic losses. It consists of four steps: definition of a scenario, identification of losses, quantification of losses, and integration of losses. In this methodology, the process deviations that contribute to a given accident scenario are identified and mapped to assess potential consequences. Losses are assessed with an appropriate loss function (revised Taguchi, modified inverted normal) for each type of loss. The total loss is quantified by integrating different loss functions. The proposed methodology has been examined on two industrial case studies. Implementation of this new economic consequence methodology in quantitative risk assessment will provide better understanding and quantification of risk. This will improve design, decision making, and risk management strategies. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

Modeling the economic impact of medication adherence in type 2 diabetes: a theoretical approach.

PubMed

Cobden, David S; Niessen, Louis W; Rutten, Frans Fh; Redekop, W Ken

2010-09-07

While strong correlations exist between medication adherence and health economic outcomes in type 2 diabetes, current economic analyses do not adequately consider them. We propose a new approach to incorporate adherence in cost-effectiveness analysis. We describe a theoretical approach to incorporating the effect of adherence when estimating the long-term costs and effectiveness of an antidiabetic medication. This approach was applied in a Markov model which includes common diabetic health states. We compared two treatments using hypothetical patient cohorts: injectable insulin (IDM) and oral (OAD) medications. Two analyses were performed, one which ignored adherence (analysis 1) and one which incorporated it (analysis 2). Results from the two analyses were then compared to explore the extent to which adherence may impact incremental cost-effectiveness ratios. In both analyses, IDM was more costly and more effective than OAD. When adherence was ignored, IDM generated an incremental cost-effectiveness of $12,097 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained versus OAD. Incorporation of adherence resulted in a slightly higher ratio ($16,241/QALY). This increase was primarily due to better adherence with OAD than with IDM, and the higher direct medical costs for IDM. Incorporating medication adherence into economic analyses can meaningfully influence the estimated cost-effectiveness of type 2 diabetes treatments, and should therefore be considered in health care decision-making. Future work on the impact of adherence on health economic outcomes, and validation of different approaches to modeling adherence, is warranted.

Protocol for the economic evaluation of a complex intervention to improve the mental health of maltreated infants and children in foster care in the UK (The BeST? services trial)

PubMed Central

Boyd, Kathleen Anne; Minnis, Helen; Donaldson, Julia; Brown, Kevin; Boyer, Nicole R S; McIntosh, Emma

2018-01-01

Introduction Children who have experienced abuse and neglect are at increased risk of mental and physical health problems throughout life. This places an enormous burden on individuals, families and society in terms of health services, education, social care and judiciary sectors. Evidence suggests that early intervention can mitigate the negative consequences of child maltreatment, exerting long-term positive effects on the health of maltreated children entering foster care. However, evidence on cost-effectiveness of such complex interventions is limited. This protocol describes the first economic evaluation of its kind in the UK. Methods and analysis An economic evaluation alongside the Best Services Trial (BeST?) has been prospectively designed to identify, measure and value key resource and outcome impacts arising from the New Orleans intervention model (NIM) (an infant mental health service) compared with case management (CM) (enhanced social work services as usual). A within-trial economic evaluation and long-term model from a National Health Service/Personal Social Service and a broader societal perspective will be undertaken alongside the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR)–Public Health Research Unit (PHRU)-funded randomised multicentre BeST?. BeST? aims to evaluate NIM compared with CM for maltreated children entering foster care in a UK context. Collection of Paediatric Quality of Life Inventory (PedsQL) and the recent mapping of PedsQL to EuroQol-5-Dimensions (EQ-5D) will facilitate the estimation of quality-adjusted life years specific to the infant population for a cost–utility analysis. Other effectiveness outcomes will be incorporated into a cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) and cost-consequences analysis (CCA). A long-term economic model and multiple economic evaluation frameworks will provide decision-makers with a comprehensive, multiperspective guide regarding cost-effectiveness of NIM. The long-term population health economic model will be developed to synthesise trial data with routine linked data and key government sector parameters informed by literature. Methods guidance for population health economic evaluation will be adopted (lifetime horizon, 1.5% discount rate for costs and benefits, CCA framework, multisector perspective). Ethics and dissemination Ethics approval was obtained by the West of Scotland Ethics Committee. Results of the main trial and economic evaluation will be submitted for publication in a peer-reviewed journal as well as published in the peer-reviewed NIHR journals library (Public Health Research Programme). Trial registration number NCT02653716; Pre-results. PMID:29540420

Offshore Wind Jobs and Economic Development Impact: Four Regional Scenarios (Presentation)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tegen, S.

NREL's Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) Model for Offshore Wind, is a computer tool for studying the economic impacts of fixed-bottom offshore wind projects in the United States. This presentation provides the results of an analysis of four offshore wind development scenarios in the Southeast Atlantic, Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, and Gulf of Mexico regions.

A Conceptual Analysis of State Support for Higher Education: Appropriations versus Need-Based Financial Aid

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Toutkoushian, Robert K.; Shafiq, M. Najeeb

2010-01-01

In this paper, we use economic concepts to examine the choice that states make between giving appropriations to public colleges or need-based financial aid to students. We begin by reviewing the economic justification for state support for higher education. Next, we introduce a simple economic model for comparing and contrasting appropriations and…

The Effect of Education on Economic Growth in Greece over the 1960-2000 Period

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tsamadias, Constantinos; Prontzas, Panagiotis

2012-01-01

This paper examines the impact of education on economic growth in Greece over the period 1960-2000 by applying the model introduced by Mankiw, Romer, and Weil. The findings of the empirical analysis reveal that education had a positive and statistically significant effect on economic growth in Greece over the period 1960-2000. The econometric…

An engineering and economic evaluation of quick germ-quick fiber process for dry-grind ethanol facilities: analysis.

PubMed

Rodríguez, Luis F; Li, Changying; Khanna, Madhu; Spaulding, Aslihan D; Lin, Tao; Eckhoff, Steven R

2010-07-01

An engineering economic model, which is mass balanced and compositionally driven, was developed to compare the conventional corn dry-grind process and the pre-fractionation process called quick germ-quick fiber (QQ). In this model, documented in a companion article, the distillers dried grains with solubles (DDGS) price was linked with its protein and fiber content as well as with the long-term average relationship with the corn price. The detailed economic analysis showed that the QQ plant retrofitted from conventional dry-grind ethanol plant reduces the manufacturing cost of ethanol by 13.5 cent/gallon and has net present value of nearly $4 million greater than the conventional dry-grind plant at an interest rate of 4% in 15years. Ethanol and feedstock price sensitivity analysis showed that the QQ plant gains more profits when ethanol price increases than conventional dry-grind ethanol plant. An optimistic analysis of the QQ process suggests that the greater value of the modified DDGS would provide greater resistance to fluctuations in corn price for QQ facilities. This model can be used to provide decision support for ethanol producers. Copyright (c) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The analysis of factors of management of safety of critical information infrastructure with use of dynamic models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trostyansky, S. N.; Kalach, A. V.; Lavlinsky, V. V.; Lankin, O. V.

2018-03-01

Based on the analysis of the dynamic model of panel data by region, including fire statistics for surveillance sites and statistics of a set of regional socio-economic indicators, as well as the time of rapid response of the state fire service to fires, the probability of fires in the surveillance sites and the risk of human death in The result of such fires from the values of the corresponding indicators for the previous year, a set of regional social-economics factors, as well as regional indicators time rapid response of the state fire service in the fire. The results obtained are consistent with the results of the application to the fire risks of the model of a rational offender. Estimation of the economic equivalent of human life from data on surveillance objects for Russia, calculated on the basis of the analysis of the presented dynamic model of fire risks, correctly agrees with the known literary data. The results obtained on the basis of the econometric approach to fire risks allow us to forecast fire risks at the supervisory sites in the regions of Russia and to develop management solutions to minimize such risks.

Error and Uncertainty Analysis for Ecological Modeling and Simulation

DTIC Science & Technology

2001-12-01

management (LRAM) accounting for environmental, training, and economic factors. In the ELVS methodology, soil erosion status is used as a quantitative...Monte-Carlo approach. The optimization is realized through economic functions or on decision constraints, such as, unit sample cost, number of samples... nitrate flux to the Gulf of Mexico. Nature (Brief Communication) 414: 166-167. (Uncertainty analysis done with SERDP software) Gertner, G., G

Concept Area Three Objectives and Test Items (Rev.). Part One and Part Two. Economic Analysis Course. Segments 50 - 84.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sterling Inst., Washington, DC. Educational Technology Center.

A multimedia course in economic analysis was developed and used in conjunction with the United States Naval Academy. (See ED 043 790 and ED 043 791 for final reports of the project evaluation and development model.) This report deals with concept area three of the course, which focuses on microeconomics. The behavioral objectives, hierarchy…

Concept Area Four and Five Objectives, Hierarchy Charts, and Test Items. Economic Analysis Course. Segments 85-96.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sterling Inst., Washington, DC. Educational Technology Center.

A multimedia course in economic analysis was developed and used in conjunction with the United States Naval Academy. (See ED 043 790 and ED 043 791 for final reports of the project evaluation and development model.) This report deals with concept areas four and five, which focus on international trade and enrichment areas. The behavioral…

Analysis and Design of International Emission Trading Markets Applying System Dynamics Techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Bo; Pickl, Stefan

2010-11-01

The design and analysis of international emission trading markets is an important actual challenge. Time-discrete models are needed to understand and optimize these procedures. We give an introduction into this scientific area and present actual modeling approaches. Furthermore, we develop a model which is embedded in a holistic problem solution. Measures for energy efficiency are characterized. The economic time-discrete "cap-and-trade" mechanism is influenced by various underlying anticipatory effects. With a systematic dynamic approach the effects can be examined. First numerical results show that fair international emissions trading can only be conducted with the use of protective export duties. Furthermore a comparatively high price which evokes emission reduction inevitably has an inhibiting effect on economic growth according to our model. As it always has been expected it is not without difficulty to find a balance between economic growth and emission reduction. It can be anticipated using our System Dynamics model simulation that substantial changes must be taken place before international emissions trading markets can contribute to global GHG emissions mitigation.

Spatial Analysis of China Province-level Perinatal Mortality

PubMed Central

XIANG, Kun; SONG, Deyong

2016-01-01

Background: Using spatial analysis tools to determine the spatial patterns of China province-level perinatal mortality and using spatial econometric model to examine the impacts of health care resources and different socio-economic factors on perinatal mortality. Methods: The Global Moran’s I index is used to examine whether the spatial autocorrelation exists in selected regions and Moran’s I scatter plot to examine the spatial clustering among regions. Spatial econometric models are used to investigate the spatial relationships between perinatal mortality and contributing factors. Results: The overall Moran’s I index indicates that perinatal mortality displays positive spatial autocorrelation. Moran’s I scatter plot analysis implies that there is a significant clustering of mortality in both high-rate regions and low-rate regions. The spatial econometric models analyses confirm the existence of a direct link between perinatal mortality and health care resources, socio-economic factors. Conclusions: Since a positive spatial autocorrelation has been detected in China province-level perinatal mortality, the upgrading of regional economic development and medical service level will affect the mortality not only in region itself but also its adjacent regions. PMID:27398334

Stimulating household flood risk mitigation investments through insurance and subsidies: an Agent-Based Modelling approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haer, Toon; Botzen, Wouter; de Moel, Hans; Aerts, Jeroen

2015-04-01

In the period 1998-2009, floods triggered roughly 52 billion euro in insured economic losses making floods the most costly natural hazard in Europe. Climate change and socio/economic trends are expected to further aggrevate floods losses in many regions. Research shows that flood risk can be significantly reduced if households install protective measures, and that the implementation of such measures can be stimulated through flood insurance schemes and subsidies. However, the effectiveness of such incentives to stimulate implementation of loss-reducing measures greatly depends on the decision process of individuals and is hardly studied. In our study, we developed an Agent-Based Model that integrates flood damage models, insurance mechanisms, subsidies, and household behaviour models to assess the effectiveness of different economic tools on stimulating households to invest in loss-reducing measures. Since the effectiveness depends on the decision making process of individuals, the study compares different household decision models ranging from standard economic models, to economic models for decision making under risk, to more complex decision models integrating economic models and risk perceptions, opinion dynamics, and the influence of flood experience. The results show the effectiveness of incentives to stimulate investment in loss-reducing measures for different household behavior types, while assuming climate change scenarios. It shows how complex decision models can better reproduce observed real-world behaviour compared to traditional economic models. Furthermore, since flood events are included in the simulations, the results provide an analysis of the dynamics in insured and uninsured losses for households, the costs of reducing risk by implementing loss-reducing measures, the capacity of the insurance market, and the cost of government subsidies under different scenarios. The model has been applied to the City of Rotterdam in The Netherlands.

[Human resources planning: the use of demographic-economic models].

PubMed

Daubon, R E

1980-01-01

This article provides an overview of the evolution of employment at different stages of economic development and describes the employment situation in developing countries, suggesting future trends and means of improvement. The lack of authentic development is reflected in the problem of employment of both natural and human resources in Third World countries. Their occupational structures may be examined in 2 periods, 1 in which a certain pretransitional equilibrium was still observed, and the other following the beginning of industrialization. With increased population growth and the application of development strategies favoring urban areas and manufacturing, a series of imbalances were introduced which had as 1 consequence an ever widening income gap between rural areas, cities, and developed countries. Rural stagnation and population pressure ultimately led to massive urban migration in many areas, swelling the cities and creating an "informal sector" of underemployed persons in marginal activities of low productivity. By 2050, the world labor force will have increased from its present 1.7 billion workers to 3.8 billion, of which only 660 million will be in presently developed countries. Each country must plan the best use of its human resources, and must include employment planning in overall development planning. The development of economic-demographic models, adapted to the context of each country, can be a valuable tool in planning. Various types of economic-demographic models and their uses are described and differentiated. Economic-demographic models of employment have 3 main parts, demography, economy, and training. Their use in the analysis of the impact of specific variables on employment, of policies, and of general strategies is described. Finally, the characteristics and uses of MODEMP, an economic-demographic model created for analysis of labor force and employment problems in Peru, are described.

Epidemics in Ming and Qing China: Impacts of changes of climate and economic well-being.

PubMed

Pei, Qing; Zhang, David D; Li, Guodong; Winterhalder, Bruce; Lee, Harry F

2015-07-01

We investigated the mechanism of epidemics with the impacts of climate change and socio-economic fluctuations in the Ming and Qing Dynasties in China (AD 1368-1901). Using long-term and high-quality datasets, this study is the first quantitative research that verifies the 'climate change → economy → epidemics' mechanism in historical China by statistical methods that include correlation analysis, Granger causality analysis, ARX, and Poisson-ARX modeling. The analysis provides the evidences that climate change could only fundamentally lead to the epidemics spread and occurrence, but the depressed economic well-being is the direct trigger of epidemics spread and occurrence at the national and long term scale in historical China. Moreover, statistical modeling shows that economic well-being is more important than population pressure in the mechanism of epidemics. However, population pressure remains a key element in determining the social vulnerability of the epidemics occurrence under climate change. Notably, the findings not only support adaptation theories but also enhance our confidence to address climatic shocks if economic buffering capacity can be promoted steadily. The findings can be a basis for scientists and policymakers in addressing global and regional environmental changes. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Tuition Advance Fund: An Analysis Prepared for Boston University.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Botsford, Keith

Three models for anlayzing the Tuition Advance Fund (TAF) are examined. The three models are: projections by the Institute for Demographic and Economic Studies (IDES), projections by Data Resources, Inc. (DRI), and the Tuition Advance Fund Simulation (TAFSIM) models from Boston University. Analysis of the TAF is based on enrollment, price, and…

Economic Analysis Framework for Freight Transportation Based on Florida Statewide Multi-Modal Freight Model

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2018-02-01

Freight transportation plays a vital role in local and regional economy. The markets and businesses from different regions and locations can be connected through freight movements. But it is difficult to quantify the economic contribution of freight ...

The clinical and cost burden of coronary calcification in a Medicare cohort: An economic model to address under-reporting and misclassification.

PubMed

Garrison, Louis P; Lewin, Jack; Young, Christopher H; Généreux, Philippe; Crittendon, Janna; Mann, Marita R; Brindis, Ralph G

2015-01-01

Coronary artery calcification (CAC) is a well-established risk factor for the occurrence of adverse ischemic events. However, the economic impact of the presence of CAC is unknown. Through an economic model analysis, we sought to estimate the incremental impact of CAC on medical care costs and patient mortality for de novo percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) patients in the 2012 cohort of the Medicare elderly (≥65) population. This aggregate burden-of-illness study is incidence-based, focusing on cost and survival outcomes for an annual Medicare cohort based on the recently introduced ICD9 code for CAC. The cost analysis uses a one-year horizon, and the survival analysis considers lost life years and their economic value. For calendar year 2012, an estimated 200,945 index (de novo) PCI procedures were performed in this cohort. An estimated 16,000 Medicare beneficiaries (7.9%) were projected to have had severe CAC, generating an additional cost in the first year following their PCI of $3500, on average, or $56 million in total. In terms of mortality, the model projects that an additional 397 deaths would be attributable to severe CAC in 2012, resulting in 3770 lost life years, representing an estimated loss of about $377 million, when valuing lost life years at $100,000 each. These model-based CAC estimates, considering both moderate and severe CAC patients, suggest an annual burden of illness approaching $1.3 billion in this PCI cohort. The potential clinical and cost consequences of CAC warrant additional clinical and economic attention not only on PCI strategies for particular patients but also on reporting and coding to achieve better evidence-based decision-making. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Analysis of the interrelationship of energy, economy, and environment: A model of a sustainable energy future for Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boo, Kyung-Jin

The primary purpose of this dissertation is to provide the groundwork for a sustainable energy future in Korea. For this purpose, a conceptual framework of sustainable energy development was developed to provide a deeper understanding of interrelationships between energy, the economy, and the environment (E 3). Based on this theoretical work, an empirical simulation model was developed to investigate the ways in which E3 interact. This dissertation attempts to develop a unified concept of sustainable energy development by surveying multiple efforts to integrate various definitions of sustainability. Sustainable energy development should be built on the basis of three principles: ecological carrying capacity, economic efficiency, and socio-political equity. Ecological carrying capacity delineates the earth's resource constraints as well as its ability to assimilate wastes. Socio-political equity implies an equitable distribution of the benefits and costs of energy consumption and an equitable distribution of environmental burdens. Economic efficiency dictates efficient allocation of scarce resources. The simulation model is composed of three modules: an energy module, an environmental module and an economic module. Because the model is grounded on economic structural behaviorism, the dynamic nature of the current economy is effectively depicted and simulated through manipulating exogenous policy variables. This macro-economic model is used to simulate six major policy intervention scenarios. Major findings from these policy simulations were: (1) carbon taxes are the most effective means of reducing air-pollutant emissions; (2) sustainable energy development can be achieved through reinvestment of carbon taxes into energy efficiency and renewable energy programs; and (3) carbon taxes would increase a nation's welfare if reinvested in relevant areas. The policy simulation model, because it is based on neoclassical economics, has limitations such that it cannot fully account for socio-political realities (inter- and intra-generational equity) which are core feature of sustainability. Thus, alternative approaches based on qualitative analysis, such as the multi-criteria approach, will be required to complement the current policy simulation model.

Impacts of Considering Climate Variability on Investment Decisions in Ethiopia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Strzepek, K.; Block, P.; Rosegrant, M.; Diao, X.

2005-12-01

In Ethiopia, climate extremes, inducing droughts or floods, are not unusual. Monitoring the effects of these extremes, and climate variability in general, is critical for economic prediction and assessment of the country's future welfare. The focus of this study involves adding climate variability to a deterministic, mean climate-driven agro-economic model, in an attempt to understand its effects and degree of influence on general economic prediction indicators for Ethiopia. Four simulations are examined, including a baseline simulation and three investment strategies: simulations of irrigation investment, roads investment, and a combination investment of both irrigation and roads. The deterministic model is transformed into a stochastic model by dynamically adding year-to-year climate variability through climate-yield factors. Nine sets of actual, historic, variable climate data are individually assembled and implemented into the 12-year stochastic model simulation, producing an ensemble of economic prediction indicators. This ensemble allows for a probabilistic approach to planning and policy making, allowing decision makers to consider risk. The economic indicators from the deterministic and stochastic approaches, including rates of return to investments, are significantly different. The predictions of the deterministic model appreciably overestimate the future welfare of Ethiopia; the predictions of the stochastic model, utilizing actual climate data, tend to give a better semblance of what may be expected. Inclusion of climate variability is vital for proper analysis of the predictor values from this agro-economic model.

Modeling of materials supply, demand and prices

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1982-01-01

The societal, economic, and policy tradeoffs associated with materials processing and utilization, are discussed. The materials system provides the materials engineer with the system analysis required for formulate sound materials processing, utilization, and resource development policies and strategies. Materials system simulation and modeling research program including assessments of materials substitution dynamics, public policy implications, and materials process economics was expanded. This effort includes several collaborative programs with materials engineers, economists, and policy analysts. The technical and socioeconomic issues of materials recycling, input-output analysis, and technological change and productivity are examined. The major thrust areas in materials systems research are outlined.

The economics and ethics of aerosol geoengineering strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goes, Marlos; Keller, Klaus; Tuana, Nancy

2010-05-01

Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are changing the Earth's climate and impose substantial risks for current and future generations. What are scientifically sound, economically viable, and ethically defendable strategies to manage these climate risks? Ratified international agreements call for a reduction of greenhouse gas emissions to avoid dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Recent proposals, however, call for a different approach: geoengineering climate by injecting aerosol precursors into the stratosphere. Published economic studies typically neglect the risks of aerosol geoengineering due to (i) a potential failure to sustain the aerosol forcing and (ii) due to potential negative impacts associated with aerosol forcings. Here we use a simple integrated assessment model of climate change to analyze potential economic impacts of aerosol geoengineering strategies over a wide range of uncertain parameters such as climate sensitivity, the economic damages due to climate change, and the economic damages due to aerosol geoengineering forcings. The simplicity of the model provides the advantages of parsimony and transparency, but it also imposes considerable caveats. For example, the analysis is based on a globally aggregated model and is hence silent on intragenerational distribution of costs and benefits. In addition, the analysis neglects the effects of future learning and is based on a simple representation of climate change impacts. We use this integrated assessment model to show three main points. First, substituting aerosol geoengineering for the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions can fail the test of economic efficiency. One key to this finding is that a failure to sustain the aerosol forcing can lead to sizeable and abrupt climatic changes. The monetary damages due to such a discontinuous aerosol geoengineering can dominate the cost-benefit analysis because the monetary damages of climate change are expected to increase with the rate of change. Second, the relative contribution of aerosol geoengineering to an economically optimal portfolio hinges critically on deeply uncertain estimates of the damages due to aerosol forcing. Even if we assume that aerosol forcing could be deployed continuously, the aerosol geoengineering does not considerably displace the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions in the simple economic optimal growth model until the damages due to the aerosol forcing are rather low. Third, deploying aerosol geoengineering may also fail an ethical test regarding issues of intergenerational justice. Substituting aerosol geoengineering for reducing greenhouse gas emissions constitutes a conscious risk transfer to future generations, for example due to the increased risk of future abrupt climate change. This risk transfer is in tension with the requirement of intergenerational justice that present generations should not create benefits for themselves in exchange for burdens on future generations.

Reducing uncertainty in value-based pricing using evidence development agreements: the case of continuous intraduodenal infusion of levodopa/carbidopa (Duodopa®) in Sweden.

PubMed

Willis, Michael; Persson, Ulf; Zoellner, York; Gradl, Birgit

2010-01-01

Value-based pricing (VBP), whereby prices are set according to the perceived benefits offered to the consumer at a time when costs and benefits are characterized by considerable uncertainty and are then reviewed ex post, is a much discussed topic in pharmaceutical reimbursement. It is usually combined with coverage with evidence development (CED), a tool in which manufacturers are granted temporary reimbursement but are required to collect and submit additional health economic data at review. Many countries, including the UK, are signalling shifts in this direction. Several countries, including Sweden, have already adopted this approach and offer good insight into the benefits and pitfalls in actual practice. To describe VBP reimbursement decision making using CED in actual practice in Sweden. Decision making by The Dental and Pharmaceutical Benefits Agency (TLV) in Sweden was reviewed using a case study of continuous intraduodenal infusion of levodopa/carbidopa (Duodopa®) in the treatment of advanced Parkinson's disease (PD) with severe motor fluctuations. The manufacturer of Duodopa® applied for reimbursement in late 2003. While the proper economic data were not included in the submission, TLV granted reimbursement until early 2005 to provide time for the manufacturer to submit a formal economic evaluation. The re-submission with economic data was considered inadequate to judge cost effectiveness, so TLV granted an additional extension of reimbursement until August 2007, at which time conclusive data were expected. The manufacturer initiated a 3-year, prospective health economic study and a formal economic model. Data from a pre-planned interim analysis of the data were loaded into the model and the cost-effectiveness ratio was the basis of the next re-submission. TLV concluded that the data were suitable for making a definite decision and that the drug was not cost effective, deciding to discontinue reimbursement for any new patients (current patients were unaffected). The manufacturer continued to collect data and to improve the economic model and re-submitted in 2008. New data and the improved model resulted in reduced uncertainty and a lower cost-effectiveness ratio in the range of Swedish kronor (SEK)430,000 per QALY gained in the base-case analysis, ranging up to SEK900,000 in the most conservative sensitivity analysis, resulting in reimbursement being granted. The case of Duodopa® provides excellent insight into VBP reimbursement decision making in combination with CED and ex post review in actual practice. Publicly available decisions document the rigorous, time-consuming process (four iterations were required before a final decision could be reached). The data generated as part of the risk-sharing agreement proved correct the initial decision to grant limited coverage despite lack of economic data. Access was provided to 100 patients while evidence was generated. Economic appraisal differs from clinical assessment, and decision makers benefit from analysis of naturalistic, actual practice data. Despite reviewing the initial trial-based, 'piggy-back' economic analysis, TLV was uncertain of the cost effectiveness in actual practice and deferred a final decision until observational data from the DAPHNE study became available. Second, acceptance of economic modelling and use of temporary reimbursement conditional on additional evidence development provide a mechanism for risk sharing between TLV and manufacturers, which enabled patient access to a drug with proven clinical benefit while necessary evidence to support claims of cost effectiveness could be generated.

Economic Consequence Analysis of Disasters: The ECAT Software Tool

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rose, Adam; Prager, Fynn; Chen, Zhenhua

This study develops a methodology for rapidly obtaining approximate estimates of the economic consequences from numerous natural, man-made and technological threats. This software tool is intended for use by various decision makers and analysts to obtain estimates rapidly. It is programmed in Excel and Visual Basic for Applications (VBA) to facilitate its use. This tool is called E-CAT (Economic Consequence Analysis Tool) and accounts for the cumulative direct and indirect impacts (including resilience and behavioral factors that significantly affect base estimates) on the U.S. economy. E-CAT is intended to be a major step toward advancing the current state of economicmore » consequence analysis (ECA) and also contributing to and developing interest in further research into complex but rapid turnaround approaches. The essence of the methodology involves running numerous simulations in a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model for each threat, yielding synthetic data for the estimation of a single regression equation based on the identification of key explanatory variables (threat characteristics and background conditions). This transforms the results of a complex model, which is beyond the reach of most users, into a "reduced form" model that is readily comprehensible. Functionality has been built into E-CAT so that its users can switch various consequence categories on and off in order to create customized profiles of economic consequences of numerous risk events. E-CAT incorporates uncertainty on both the input and output side in the course of the analysis.« less

Clinical laboratory as an economic model for business performance analysis

PubMed Central

Buljanović, Vikica; Patajac, Hrvoje; Petrovečki, Mladen

2011-01-01

Aim To perform SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats) analysis of a clinical laboratory as an economic model that may be used to improve business performance of laboratories by removing weaknesses, minimizing threats, and using external opportunities and internal strengths. Methods Impact of possible threats to and weaknesses of the Clinical Laboratory at Našice General County Hospital business performance and use of strengths and opportunities to improve operating profit were simulated using models created on the basis of SWOT analysis results. The operating profit as a measure of profitability of the clinical laboratory was defined as total revenue minus total expenses and presented using a profit and loss account. Changes in the input parameters in the profit and loss account for 2008 were determined using opportunities and potential threats, and economic sensitivity analysis was made by using changes in the key parameters. The profit and loss account and economic sensitivity analysis were tools for quantifying the impact of changes in the revenues and expenses on the business operations of clinical laboratory. Results Results of simulation models showed that operational profit of €470 723 in 2008 could be reduced to only €21 542 if all possible threats became a reality and current weaknesses remained the same. Also, operational gain could be increased to €535 804 if laboratory strengths and opportunities were utilized. If both the opportunities and threats became a reality, the operational profit would decrease by €384 465. Conclusion The operational profit of the clinical laboratory could be significantly reduced if all threats became a reality and the current weaknesses remained the same. The operational profit could be increased by utilizing strengths and opportunities as much as possible. This type of modeling may be used to monitor business operations of any clinical laboratory and improve its financial situation by implementing changes in the next fiscal period. PMID:21853546

Clinical laboratory as an economic model for business performance analysis.

PubMed

Buljanović, Vikica; Patajac, Hrvoje; Petrovecki, Mladen

2011-08-15

To perform SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats) analysis of a clinical laboratory as an economic model that may be used to improve business performance of laboratories by removing weaknesses, minimizing threats, and using external opportunities and internal strengths. Impact of possible threats to and weaknesses of the Clinical Laboratory at Našice General County Hospital business performance and use of strengths and opportunities to improve operating profit were simulated using models created on the basis of SWOT analysis results. The operating profit as a measure of profitability of the clinical laboratory was defined as total revenue minus total expenses and presented using a profit and loss account. Changes in the input parameters in the profit and loss account for 2008 were determined using opportunities and potential threats, and economic sensitivity analysis was made by using changes in the key parameters. The profit and loss account and economic sensitivity analysis were tools for quantifying the impact of changes in the revenues and expenses on the business operations of clinical laboratory. Results of simulation models showed that operational profit of €470 723 in 2008 could be reduced to only €21 542 if all possible threats became a reality and current weaknesses remained the same. Also, operational gain could be increased to €535 804 if laboratory strengths and opportunities were utilized. If both the opportunities and threats became a reality, the operational profit would decrease by €384 465. The operational profit of the clinical laboratory could be significantly reduced if all threats became a reality and the current weaknesses remained the same. The operational profit could be increased by utilizing strengths and opportunities as much as possible. This type of modeling may be used to monitor business operations of any clinical laboratory and improve its financial situation by implementing changes in the next fiscal period.

Economic Model For a Return on Investment Analysis of United States Government High Performance Computing (HPC) Research and Development (R & D) Investment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Joseph, Earl C.; Conway, Steve; Dekate, Chirag

This study investigated how high-performance computing (HPC) investments can improve economic success and increase scientific innovation. This research focused on the common good and provided uses for DOE, other government agencies, industry, and academia. The study created two unique economic models and an innovation index: 1 A macroeconomic model that depicts the way HPC investments result in economic advancements in the form of ROI in revenue (GDP), profits (and cost savings), and jobs. 2 A macroeconomic model that depicts the way HPC investments result in basic and applied innovations, looking at variations by sector, industry, country, and organization size. Amore » new innovation index that provides a means of measuring and comparing innovation levels. Key findings of the pilot study include: IDC collected the required data across a broad set of organizations, with enough detail to create these models and the innovation index. The research also developed an expansive list of HPC success stories.« less

Systematic literature review of methodologies and data sources of existing economic models across the full spectrum of Alzheimer’s disease and dementia from apparently healthy through disease progression to end of life care: a systematic review protocol

PubMed Central

Karagiannidou, Maria; Wittenberg, Raphael; Landeiro, Filipa Isabel Trigo; Park, A-La; Fry, Andra; Knapp, Martin; Tockhorn-Heidenreich, Antje; Castro Sanchez, Amparo Yovanna; Ghinai, Isaac; Handels, Ron; Lecomte, Pascal; Wolstenholme, Jane

2018-01-01

Introduction Dementia is one of the greatest health challenges the world will face in the coming decades, as it is one of the principal causes of disability and dependency among older people. Economic modelling is used widely across many health conditions to inform decisions on health and social care policy and practice. The aim of this literature review is to systematically identify, review and critically evaluate existing health economics models in dementia. We included the full spectrum of dementia, including Alzheimer’s disease (AD), from preclinical stages through to severe dementia and end of life. This review forms part of the Real world Outcomes across the Alzheimer’s Disease spectrum for better care: multimodal data Access Platform (ROADMAP) project. Methods and analysis Electronic searches were conducted in Medical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System Online, Excerpta Medica dataBASE, Economic Literature Database, NHS Economic Evaluation Database, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, Cost-Effectiveness Analysis Registry, Research Papers in Economics, Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effectiveness, Science Citation Index, Turning Research Into Practice and Open Grey for studies published between January 2000 and the end of June 2017. Two reviewers will independently assess each study against predefined eligibility criteria. A third reviewer will resolve any disagreement. Data will be extracted using a predefined data extraction form following best practice. Study quality will be assessed using the Phillips checklist for decision analytic modelling. A narrative synthesis will be used. Ethics and dissemination The results will be made available in a scientific peer-reviewed journal paper, will be presented at relevant conferences and will also be made available through the ROADMAP project. PROSPERO registration number CRD42017073874. PMID:29884696

The Role of Agriculture in the Economic Development of West Virginia: An Input-Output Analysis. Miscellaneous Publication No. 20.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

D'Souza, Gerard E.; And Others

This study deals with the structural interrelationships among agricultural sub-sectors, and between the agricultural and non-agricultural sectors of the West Virginia economy. The study is intended to offer information on which to base sound economic development decisions. An input-output economic model is used in order to focus on the interaction…

Generality in nanotechnologies and its relationship to economic performance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gomez Baquero, Fernando

In the history if economic analysis there is perhaps no more important question than the one of how economic development is achieved. For more than a century, economists have explored the role of technology in economic growth but there is still much to be learned about the effect that technologies, in particular emerging ones, have on economic growth and productivity. The objective of this research is to understand the relationship between nanotechnologies and economic growth and productivity, using the theory of General Purpose Technology (GPT)-driven economic growth. To do so, the Generality Index (calculated from patent data) was used to understand the relative pervasiveness of nanotechnologies. The analysis of trends and patterns of Generality Index, using the largest group of patents since the publication of the NBER Patent Database, indicates that nanotechnologies possess a higher average Generality than other technological groups. Next, the relationship between the Generality Index and Total Factor Productivity (TFP) was studied using econometric analysis. Model estimates indicate that the variation in Generality for the group of nanotechnologies can explain a large proportion of the variation in TFP. However, the explanatory power of the entire set of patents (not just nanotechnologies) is larger and corresponds better to the expected theoretical models. Additionally, there is a negative short-run relationship between Generality and TFP, conflicting with part of the theoretical GPT-models. Finally, the relationship between the Generality of nanotechnologies and policy-driven investment events, such as R&D investments and grant awards, was studied using econometric methods. The statistical evidence suggests that NSF awards are related to technologies with higher Generality, while NIH awards and NNI investments are related to a lower average Generality. Overall, results of this research work indicate that the introduction of pervasive technologies into an economic system sets in motion an interesting series of events that can both increase and decrease productivity and therefore economic growth. The metrics and methods developed in this work emphasize the importance of developing and using new metrics for strategic decision making, both in the private sector and in the public sector.

Socio-economic effect of seismic retrofit implemented on bridges in the Los Angeles highway network.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2008-12-01

This research studied socio-economic effect of the seismic retrofit implemented on bridges in Los Angeles Area : Freeway Network. Firstly, advanced FE (Finite Element) modeling and nonlinear time history analysis are carried out to : evaluate the sei...

Analysis and forecast of railway coal transportation volume based on BP neural network combined forecasting model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Yongbin; Xie, Haihong; Wu, Liuyi

2018-05-01

The share of coal transportation in the total railway freight volume is about 50%. As is widely acknowledged, coal industry is vulnerable to the economic situation and national policies. Coal transportation volume fluctuates significantly under the new economic normal. Grasp the overall development trend of railway coal transportation market, have important reference and guidance significance to the railway and coal industry decision-making. By analyzing the economic indicators and policy implications, this paper expounds the trend of the coal transportation volume, and further combines the economic indicators with the high correlation with the coal transportation volume with the traditional traffic prediction model to establish a combined forecasting model based on the back propagation neural network. The error of the prediction results is tested, which proves that the method has higher accuracy and has practical application.

Health expenditures spent for prevention, economic performance, and social welfare.

PubMed

Wang, Fuhmei; Wang, Jung-Der; Huang, Yu-Xiu

2016-12-01

Countries with limited resources in economic downturns often reduce government expenditures, of which spending on preventive healthcare with no apparent immediate health impact might be cut down first. This research aims to find the optimum share of preventive health expenditure to gross domestic product (GDP) and investigate the implications of preventive health services on economic performance and the population's wellbeing. We develop the economic growth model to undertake health-economic analyses and parameterize for Taiwan setting. Based on the US experiences over the period from 1975 to 2013, this research further examines the model's predictions on the relationship between preventive health expenditure and economic performance. Theoretical analysis and numerical simulations show that an inverse U-shaped relationship exists between the proportion of GDP spent on prevention and social welfare, as well as between the proportion spent on prevention and economic growth. Empirical analysis shows an under-investment in prevention in Taiwan. The spending of preventive healthcare in Taiwan government was 0.0027 GDP in 2014, while the optimization levels for economic development and social welfare would be 0 · 0119 and 0 · 0203, respectively. There is a statistically significant nonlinear relationship between health expenditure on prevention and the estimated real impact of economic performance from US experiences. The welfare-maximizing proportion of preventive expenditure is usually greater than the proportion maximizing economic growth, indicating a conflict between economic growth and welfare after a marginal share. Our findings indicate that it is worthwhile increasing investment on prevention up until an optimization level for economic development and social welfare. Such levels could also be estimated in other economies.

Sustainability and economics: The Adirondack Park experience, a forest economic-ecological model, and solar energy policy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Erickson, Jon David

The long-term sustainability of human communities will depend on our relationship with regional environments, our maintenance of renewable resources, and our successful disengagement from nonrenewable energy dependence. This dissertation investigates sustainability at these three levels, following a critical analysis of sustainability and economics. At the regional environment level, the Adirondack Park of New York State is analyzed as a potential model of sustainable development. A set of initial and ongoing conditions are presented that both emerge from and support a model of sustainability in the Adirondacks. From these conditions, a clearer picture emerges of the definition of regional sustainability, consequences of its adoption, and lessons from its application. Next, an economic-ecological model of the northern hardwood forest ecosystem is developed. The model integrates economic theory and intertemporal ecological concepts, linking current harvest decisions with future forest growth, financial value, and ecosystem stability. The results indicate very different economic and ecological outcomes by varying opportunity cost and ecosystem recovery assumptions, and suggest a positive benefit to ecological recovery in the forest rotation decision of the profit maximizing manager. The last section investigates the motives, economics, and international development implications of renewable energy (specifically photovoltaic technology) in rural electrification and technology transfer, drawing on research in the Dominican Republic. The implications of subsidizing a photovoltaic market versus investing in basic research are explored.

Economics and Markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Graham, Alan K.

Economic matters are often entangled with interventions. Aid agencies need to understand where they can have the highest leverage, and where aid may cause harmful economic distortions. Humanitarian interventions in crises will be more effective if the economic and social root causes of the crisis are addressed as well. The root causes of insurgencies often include economic issues, particularly economic discrimination. Planners for military operations in a country need to know the economic side effects of military activities, including the effects of withdrawal. Government agencies trying to bring developed-nation investors into a developing country must understand, along with the potential investors, what the economic prospects of the economy are, and how safe an investment is (or is not). Economic modeling and analysis can assist in each of these cases.

A method to assess the allocation suitability of recreational activities: An economic approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Hsiao-Lin

1996-03-01

Most existing methods of planning focus on development of a recreational area; less consideration is placed on the allocation of recreational activities within a recreational area. Most existing research emphasizes the economic benefits of developing a recreational area; few authors assessed the allocation suitability of recreational activities from an economic point of view. The purpose of this work was to develop a model to assess the allocation suitability of recreational activities according to the application of a concept of analysis of cost and benefit under a premise of ecological concern. The model was verified with a case study of Taiwan. We suggest that the proposed model should form a critical part of recreational planning.

Hurricane Sandy Economic Impacts Assessment: A Computable General Equilibrium Approach and Validation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Boero, Riccardo; Edwards, Brian Keith

Economists use computable general equilibrium (CGE) models to assess how economies react and self-organize after changes in policies, technology, and other exogenous shocks. CGE models are equation-based, empirically calibrated, and inspired by Neoclassical economic theory. The focus of this work was to validate the National Infrastructure Simulation and Analysis Center (NISAC) CGE model and apply it to the problem of assessing the economic impacts of severe events. We used the 2012 Hurricane Sandy event as our validation case. In particular, this work first introduces the model and then describes the validation approach and the empirical data available for studying themore » event of focus. Shocks to the model are then formalized and applied. Finally, model results and limitations are presented and discussed, pointing out both the model degree of accuracy and the assessed total damage caused by Hurricane Sandy.« less

Jobs and Economic Development from New Transmission and Generation in Wyoming

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lantz, E.; Tegen, S.

2011-03-01

This report is intended to inform policymakers, local government officials, and Wyoming residents about the jobs and economic development activity that could occur should new infrastructure investments in Wyoming move forward. The report and analysis presented is not a projection or a forecast of what will happen. Instead, the report uses a hypothetical deployment scenario and economic modeling tools to estimate the jobs and economic activity likely associated with these projects if or when they are built.

Jobs and Economic Development from New Transmission and Generation in Wyoming

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lantz, Eric; Tegen, Suzanne

2011-03-31

This report is intended to inform policymakers, local government officials, and Wyoming residents about the jobs and economic development activity that could occur should new infrastructure investments in Wyoming move forward. The report and analysis presented is not a projection or a forecast of what will happen. Instead, the report uses a hypothetical deployment scenario and economic modeling tools to estimate the jobs and economic activity likely associated with these projects if or when they are built.

Economic Modeling and Analysis of Educational Vouchers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Epple, Dennis; Romano, Richard

2012-01-01

The analysis of educational vouchers has evolved from market-based analogies to models that incorporate distinctive features of the educational environment. These distinctive features include peer effects, scope for private school pricing and admissions based on student characteristics, the linkage of household residential and school choices in…

Factors influencing crime rates: an econometric analysis approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bothos, John M. A.; Thomopoulos, Stelios C. A.

2016-05-01

The scope of the present study is to research the dynamics that determine the commission of crimes in the US society. Our study is part of a model we are developing to understand urban crime dynamics and to enhance citizens' "perception of security" in large urban environments. The main targets of our research are to highlight dependence of crime rates on certain social and economic factors and basic elements of state anticrime policies. In conducting our research, we use as guides previous relevant studies on crime dependence, that have been performed with similar quantitative analyses in mind, regarding the dependence of crime on certain social and economic factors using statistics and econometric modelling. Our first approach consists of conceptual state space dynamic cross-sectional econometric models that incorporate a feedback loop that describes crime as a feedback process. In order to define dynamically the model variables, we use statistical analysis on crime records and on records about social and economic conditions and policing characteristics (like police force and policing results - crime arrests), to determine their influence as independent variables on crime, as the dependent variable of our model. The econometric models we apply in this first approach are an exponential log linear model and a logit model. In a second approach, we try to study the evolvement of violent crime through time in the US, independently as an autonomous social phenomenon, using autoregressive and moving average time-series econometric models. Our findings show that there are certain social and economic characteristics that affect the formation of crime rates in the US, either positively or negatively. Furthermore, the results of our time-series econometric modelling show that violent crime, viewed solely and independently as a social phenomenon, correlates with previous years crime rates and depends on the social and economic environment's conditions during previous years.

Evaluation on the efficiency of the construction sector companies in Malaysia with data envelopment analysis model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weng Hoe, Lam; Jinn, Lim Shun; Weng Siew, Lam; Hai, Tey Kim

2018-04-01

In Malaysia, construction sector is essential parts in driving the development of the Malaysian economy. Construction industry is an economic investment and its relationship with economic development is well posited. However, the evaluation on the efficiency of the construction sectors companies listed in Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange (KLSE) with Data Analysis Envelopment (DEA) model have not been actively studied by the past researchers. Hence the purpose of this study is to examine the financial performance the listed construction sectors companies in Malaysia in the year of 2015. The results of this study show that the efficiency of construction sectors companies can be obtained by using DEA model through ratio analysis which defined as the ratio of total outputs to total inputs. This study is significant because the inefficient companies are identified for potential improvement.

The Economic Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture: New Damage Functions from a Meta-Analsis and the GGCMI

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moore, F. C.; Baldos, U. L. C.; Hertel, T. W.; Diaz, D.

2016-12-01

Substantial advances have been made in recent years in understanding the effects of climate change on agriculture, but this is not currently represented in economic models used to quantify the benefits of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. In fact, the science regarding climate change impacts on agriculture in these models dates to the early 1990s or before. In this paper we derive new economic damage functions for the agricultural sector based on two methods for aggregating current scientific understanding of the impacts of warming on yields. We first present a new meta-analysis based on a review of the agronomic literature performed for the IPCC 5th Assessment Report and compare results from this approach with findings from the AgMIP Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison (GGCMI). We find yield impacts implied by the meta-analysis are generally more negative than those from the GGCMI, particularly at higher latitudes, but show substantial agreement in many areas. We then use both yield products as input to the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) computable general equilibrium (CGE) model in order to estimate the welfare consequences of these yield shocks and to produce two new economic damage functions. These damage functions are consistently more negative than the current representation of agricultural damages in Integrated Asessment Models (IAMs), in some cases substantially so. Replacing the existing damage functions with those based on more recent science increases the social cost of carbon (SCC) by between 43% (GGCMI) and 143% (Meta-Analysis). In addition to presenting a new mutli-crop, multi-model gridded yield impact prouct that complements the GGCMI, this is also the first end-to-end study that directly links the biophysical impacts of climate change to the SCC, something we believe essential to improving the integrity of IAMs going forward.

Alcohol affordability and alcohol demand: cross-country trends and panel data estimates, 1975 to 2008.

PubMed

Nelson, Jon P

2014-04-01

Relatively little is known about cross-country differences in alcohol affordability or factors that determine differences in affordability over time. This information is potentially important for alcohol policy, especially policies that focus on higher taxes or prices to reduce total alcohol consumption. This study estimates cross-country alcohol consumption relationships using economic models incorporating income and prices and alternative models based on alcohol affordability. The data and analysis are restricted to higher income countries. Data for alcohol consumption per capita (ages 15+) are analyzed for 2 samples: first, 17 countries in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development for the period 1975 to 2000; second, 22 countries in the European Union for the period from 2000 to 2008. Panel data models are utilized, with country and time fixed-effects to control for confounding influences. In economic demand models, covariates are real per capita income and real alcohol price indices. In affordability models, income is divided by prices to yield an index of alcohol affordability. Analysis of data trends reveals that much of the increase in affordability is due to rising real incomes, and not falling real prices. Economic models of demand perform slightly better statistically, but differences are not substantial as income and affordability are highly correlated. For both samples, exogenous rates of growth of alcohol consumption are negative. Price and income elasticities, on average, are within the range of prior estimates. Affordability elasticities are between 0.21 and 0.25. Although alcohol affordability is a valid concept statistically, its use in policy discussions tends to hide underlying causes of changes in affordability. A better approach is a comparison and analysis of trends and cross-country differences in real incomes and real alcohol prices together with the affordability index. Country-level analysis of income and price elasticities also is required. Copyright © 2014 by the Research Society on Alcoholism.

Non-equilibrium thermodynamics theory of econometric source discovery for large data analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Bergem, Rutger; Jenkins, Jeffrey; Benachenhou, Dalila; Szu, Harold

2014-05-01

Almost all consumer and firm transactions are achieved using computers and as a result gives rise to increasingly large amounts of data available for analysts. The gold standard in Economic data manipulation techniques matured during a period of limited data access, and the new Large Data Analysis (LDA) paradigm we all face may quickly obfuscate most tools used by Economists. When coupled with an increased availability of numerous unstructured, multi-modal data sets, the impending 'data tsunami' could have serious detrimental effects for Economic forecasting, analysis, and research in general. Given this reality we propose a decision-aid framework for Augmented-LDA (A-LDA) - a synergistic approach to LDA which combines traditional supervised, rule-based Machine Learning (ML) strategies to iteratively uncover hidden sources in large data, the artificial neural network (ANN) Unsupervised Learning (USL) at the minimum Helmholtz free energy for isothermal dynamic equilibrium strategies, and the Economic intuitions required to handle problems encountered when interpreting large amounts of Financial or Economic data. To make the ANN USL framework applicable to economics we define the temperature, entropy, and energy concepts in Economics from non-equilibrium molecular thermodynamics of Boltzmann viewpoint, as well as defining an information geometry, on which the ANN can operate using USL to reduce information saturation. An exemplar of such a system representation is given for firm industry equilibrium. We demonstrate the traditional ML methodology in the economics context and leverage firm financial data to explore a frontier concept known as behavioral heterogeneity. Behavioral heterogeneity on the firm level can be imagined as a firm's interactions with different types of Economic entities over time. These interactions could impose varying degrees of institutional constraints on a firm's business behavior. We specifically look at behavioral heterogeneity for firms that are operating with the label of `Going-Concern' and firms labeled according to institutional influence they may be experiencing, such as constraints on firm hiring/spending while in a Bankruptcy or a Merger procedure. Uncovering invariant features, or behavioral data metrics from observable firm data in an economy can greatly benefit the FED, World Bank, etc. We find that the ML/LDA communities can benefit from Economic intuitions just as much as Economists can benefit from generic data exploration tools. The future of successful Economic data understanding, modeling, simulation, and visualization can be amplified by new A-LDA models and approaches for new and analogous models of Economic system dynamics. The potential benefits of improved economic data analysis and real time decision aid tools are numerous for researchers, analysts, and federal agencies who all deal with increasingly large amounts of complex data to support their decision making.

Economic Drought Impact on Agriculture: analysis of all agricultural sectors affected

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gil, M.; Garrido, A.; Hernández-Mora, N.

2012-04-01

The analysis of drought impacts is essential to define efficient and sustainable management and mitigation. In this paper we present a detailed analysis of the impacts of the 2004-2008 drought in the agricultural sector in the Ebro river basin (Spain). An econometric model is applied in order to determine the magnitude of the economic loss attributable to water scarcity. Both the direct impacts of drought on agricultural productivity and the indirect impacts of drought on agricultural employment and agroindustry in the Ebro basin are evaluated. The econometric model measures losses in the economic value of irrigated and rainfed agricultural production, of agricultural employment and of Gross Value Added both from the agricultural sector and the agro-industrial sector. The explanatory variables include an index of water availability (reservoir storage levels for irrigated agriculture and accumulated rainfall for rainfed agriculture), a price index representative of the mix of crops grown in each region, and a time variable. The model allows for differentiating the impacts due to water scarcity from other sources of economic losses. Results show how the impacts diminish as we approach the macro-economic indicators from those directly dependent on water abstractions and precipitation. Sectors directly dependent on water are the most affected with identifiable economic losses resulting from the lack of water. From the management perspective implications of these findings are key to develop mitigation measures to reduce drought risk exposure. These results suggest that more open agricultural markets, and wider and more flexible procurement strategies of the agro-industry reduces the socio-economic exposure to drought cycles. This paper presents the results of research conducted under PREEMPT project (Policy relevant assessment of the socioeconomic effects of droughts and floods, ECHO - grant agreement # 070401/2010/579119/SUB/C4), which constitutes an effort to provide a comprehensive assessment of the socioeconomic impacts of the 2004-2008 drought in the Ebro river basin

Hidden flows and waste processing--an analysis of illustrative futures.

PubMed

Schiller, F; Raffield, T; Angus, A; Herben, M; Young, P J; Longhurst, P J; Pollard, S J T

2010-12-14

An existing materials flow model is adapted (using Excel and AMBER model platforms) to account for waste and hidden material flows within a domestic environment. Supported by national waste data, the implications of legislative change, domestic resource depletion and waste technology advances are explored. The revised methodology offers additional functionality for economic parameters that influence waste generation and disposal. We explore this accounting system under hypothetical future waste and resource management scenarios, illustrating the utility of the model. A sensitivity analysis confirms that imports, domestic extraction and their associated hidden flows impact mostly on waste generation. The model offers enhanced utility for policy and decision makers with regard to economic mass balance and strategic waste flows, and may promote further discussion about waste technology choice in the context of reducing carbon budgets.

Direct coal liquefaction baseline design and system analysis. Quarterly report, January--March 1991

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

1991-04-01

The primary objective of the study is to develop a computer model for a base line direct coal liquefaction design based on two stage direct coupled catalytic reactors. This primary objective is to be accomplished by completing the following: a base line design based on previous DOE/PETC results from Wilsonville pilot plant and other engineering evaluations; a cost estimate and economic analysis; a computer model incorporating the above two steps over a wide range of capacities and selected process alternatives; a comprehensive training program for DOE/PETC Staff to understand and use the computer model; a thorough documentation of all underlyingmore » assumptions for baseline economics; and a user manual and training material which will facilitate updating of the model in the future.« less

Direct coal liquefaction baseline design and system analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

1991-04-01

The primary objective of the study is to develop a computer model for a base line direct coal liquefaction design based on two stage direct coupled catalytic reactors. This primary objective is to be accomplished by completing the following: a base line design based on previous DOE/PETC results from Wilsonville pilot plant and other engineering evaluations; a cost estimate and economic analysis; a computer model incorporating the above two steps over a wide range of capacities and selected process alternatives; a comprehensive training program for DOE/PETC Staff to understand and use the computer model; a thorough documentation of all underlyingmore » assumptions for baseline economics; and a user manual and training material which will facilitate updating of the model in the future.« less

Comparative analysis of economic models in selected solar energy computer programs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Powell, J. W.; Barnes, K. A.

1982-01-01

The economic evaluation models in five computer programs widely used for analyzing solar energy systems (F-CHART 3.0, F-CHART 4.0, SOLCOST, BLAST, and DOE-2) are compared. Differences in analysis techniques and assumptions among the programs are assessed from the point of view of consistency with the Federal requirements for life cycle costing (10 CFR Part 436), effect on predicted economic performance, and optimal system size, case of use, and general applicability to diverse systems types and building types. The FEDSOL program developed by the National Bureau of Standards specifically to meet the Federal life cycle cost requirements serves as a basis for the comparison. Results of the study are illustrated in test cases of two different types of Federally owned buildings: a single family residence and a low rise office building.

AN ENERGY SYSTEMS ANALYSIS OF CONSTRAINTS ON ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

EPA Science Inventory

There is a strong linear dependence of economic activity as measured by gross domestic product (GDP) on both the fossil fuel energy and the total emergy consumed by nations. Conceptual models of global and regional environmental systems were developed to examine the factors c...

Integrated cost-effectiveness analysis of agri-environmental measures for water quality.

PubMed

Balana, Bedru B; Jackson-Blake, Leah; Martin-Ortega, Julia; Dunn, Sarah

2015-09-15

This paper presents an application of integrated methodological approach for identifying cost-effective combinations of agri-environmental measures to achieve water quality targets. The methodological approach involves linking hydro-chemical modelling with economic costs of mitigation measures. The utility of the approach was explored for the River Dee catchment in North East Scotland, examining the cost-effectiveness of mitigation measures for nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) pollutants. In-stream nitrate concentration was modelled using the STREAM-N and phosphorus using INCA-P model. Both models were first run for baseline conditions and then their effectiveness for changes in land management was simulated. Costs were based on farm income foregone, capital and operational expenditures. The costs and effects data were integrated using 'Risk Solver Platform' optimization in excel to produce the most cost-effective combination of measures by which target nutrient reductions could be attained at a minimum economic cost. The analysis identified different combination of measures as most cost-effective for the two pollutants. An important aspect of this paper is integration of model-based effectiveness estimates with economic cost of measures for cost-effectiveness analysis of land and water management options. The methodological approach developed is not limited to the two pollutants and the selected agri-environmental measures considered in the paper; the approach can be adapted to the cost-effectiveness analysis of any catchment-scale environmental management options. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Analysis of the design and economics of molten carbonate fuel cell tri-generation systems providing heat and power for commercial buildings and H2 for FC vehicles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Xuping; Ogden, Joan; Yang, Christopher

2013-11-01

This study models the operation of molten carbonate fuel cell (MCFC) tri-generation systems for “big box” store businesses that combine grocery and retail business, and sometimes gasoline retail. Efficiency accounting methods and parameters for MCFC tri-generation systems have been developed. Interdisciplinary analysis and an engineering/economic model were applied for evaluating the technical, economic, and environmental performance of distributed MCFC tri-generation systems, and for exploring the optimal system design. Model results show that tri-generation is economically competitive with the conventional system, in which the stores purchase grid electricity and NG for heat, and sell gasoline fuel. The results are robust based on sensitivity analysis considering the uncertainty in energy prices and capital cost. Varying system sizes with base case engineering inputs, energy prices, and cost assumptions, it is found that there is a clear tradeoff between the portion of electricity demand covered and the capital cost increase of bigger system size. MCFC Tri-generation technology provides lower emission electricity, heat, and H2 fuel. With NG as feedstock the CO2 emission can be reduced by 10%-43.6%, depending on how the grid electricity is generated. With renewable methane as feedstock CO2 emission can be further reduced to near zero.

Health economic studies: an introduction to cost-benefit, cost-effectiveness, and cost-utility analyses.

PubMed

Angevine, Peter D; Berven, Sigurd

2014-10-15

Narrative overview. To provide clinicians with a basic understanding of economic studies, including cost-benefit, cost-effectiveness, and cost-utility analyses. As decisions regarding public health policy, insurance reimbursement, and patient care incorporate factors other than traditional outcomes such as satisfaction or symptom resolution, health economic studies are increasingly prominent in the literature. This trend will likely continue, and it is therefore important for clinicians to have a fundamental understanding of the common types of economic studies and be able to read them critically. In this brief article, the basic concepts of economic studies and the differences between cost-benefit, cost-effectiveness, and cost-utility studies are discussed. An overview of the field of health economic analysis is presented. Cost-benefit, cost-effectiveness, and cost-utility studies all integrate cost and outcome data into a decision analysis model. These different types of studies are distinguished mainly by the way in which outcomes are valued. Obtaining accurate cost data is often difficult and can limit the generalizability of a study. With a basic understanding of health economic analysis, clinicians can be informed consumers of these important studies.

Approach of technical decision-making by element flow analysis and Monte-Carlo simulation of municipal solid waste stream.

PubMed

Tian, Bao-Guo; Si, Ji-Tao; Zhao, Yan; Wang, Hong-Tao; Hao, Ji-Ming

2007-01-01

This paper deals with the procedure and methodology which can be used to select the optimal treatment and disposal technology of municipal solid waste (MSW), and to provide practical and effective technical support to policy-making, on the basis of study on solid waste management status and development trend in China and abroad. Focusing on various treatment and disposal technologies and processes of MSW, this study established a Monte-Carlo mathematical model of cost minimization for MSW handling subjected to environmental constraints. A new method of element stream (such as C, H, O, N, S) analysis in combination with economic stream analysis of MSW was developed. By following the streams of different treatment processes consisting of various techniques from generation, separation, transfer, transport, treatment, recycling and disposal of the wastes, the element constitution as well as its economic distribution in terms of possibility functions was identified. Every technique step was evaluated economically. The Mont-Carlo method was then conducted for model calibration. Sensitivity analysis was also carried out to identify the most sensitive factors. Model calibration indicated that landfill with power generation of landfill gas was economically the optimal technology at the present stage under the condition of more than 58% of C, H, O, N, S going to landfill. Whether or not to generate electricity was the most sensitive factor. If landfilling cost increases, MSW separation treatment was recommended by screening first followed with incinerating partially and composting partially with residue landfilling. The possibility of incineration model selection as the optimal technology was affected by the city scale. For big cities and metropolitans with large MSW generation, possibility for constructing large-scale incineration facilities increases, whereas, for middle and small cities, the effectiveness of incinerating waste decreases.

Decision-making analysis for allergen immunotherapy versus nasal steroids in the treatment of nasal steroid-responsive allergic rhinitis.

PubMed

Kennedy, Joshua L; Robinson, Derek; Christophel, Jared; Borish, Larry; Payne, Spencer

2014-01-01

The purpose of the study was to determine the age at which initiation of specific subcutaneous immunotherapy (SCIT) becomes more cost-effective than continued lifetime intranasal steroid (NS) therapy in the treatment of allergic rhinitis, with the use of a decision analysis model. A Markov decision analysis model was created for this study. Economic analyses were performed to identify "break-even" points in the treatment of allergic rhinitis with the use of SCIT and NS. Efficacy rates for therapy and cost data were collected from the published literature. Models in which there was only incomplete improvement while receiving SCIT were also evaluated for economic break-even points. The primary perspective of the study was societal. Multiple break-even point curves were obtained corresponding to various clinical scenarios. For patients with seasonal allergic rhinitis requiring NS (i.e., fluticasone) 6 months per year, the age at which initiation of SCIT provides long-term direct cost advantage is less than 41 years. For patients with perennial rhinitis symptoms requiring year-round NS, the cut-off age for SCIT cost-effectiveness increases to 60 years. Hypothetical subjects who require continued NS treatment (50% reduction of previous dosage) while receiving SCIT also display break-even points, whereby it is economically advantageous to consider allergy referral and SCIT, dependent on the cost of the NS prescribed. The age at which SCIT provides economic advantages over NS in the treatment of allergic rhinitis depends on multiple clinical factors. Decision analysis models can assist the physician in accounting for these factors and customize patient counseling with regard to treatment options.

Wayanad widows: A study of sustainable rural economic development using renewable energy technology for micro enterprise in Kerala, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Voorhees, Maire Claire

This thesis examines the situation of the farmer widows of Wayanad, Kerala through exploration of the underlying agricultural and economic issues leading to farmers' suicides, the current state of the environment in the Wayanad District of Kerala, India, and an economic model of micro-entrepreneurship to address economic and social issues of the surviving widows. Quantitative and qualitative research methods were performed through the assessment and document analysis of archive, newspaper, and published reports to gain a macro perspective. The Environmental Vulnerability Index was used as a tool to evaluate and organize findings of the current environmental conditions in the region. This thesis supports the sustainability concept of considering the economic, ecological, and social impacts when identifying economic development pathways. The goal was to explore the appropriateness of small household solar systems as vehicle in the micro-enterprise model to be a sustainable alternative economic pathway to agriculture for the farmer widows of Wayanad.

Techno-economic analysis of ethanol production from sugarcane bagasse using a Liquefaction plus Simultaneous Saccharification and co-Fermentation process.

PubMed

Gubicza, Krisztina; Nieves, Ismael U; Sagues, William J; Barta, Zsolt; Shanmugam, K T; Ingram, Lonnie O

2016-05-01

A techno-economic analysis was conducted for a simplified lignocellulosic ethanol production process developed and proven by the University of Florida at laboratory, pilot, and demonstration scales. Data obtained from all three scales of development were used with Aspen Plus to create models for an experimentally-proven base-case and 5 hypothetical scenarios. The model input parameters that differed among the hypothetical scenarios were fermentation time, enzyme loading, enzymatic conversion, solids loading, and overall process yield. The minimum ethanol selling price (MESP) varied between 50.38 and 62.72 US cents/L. The feedstock and the capital cost were the main contributors to the production cost, comprising between 23-28% and 40-49% of the MESP, respectively. A sensitivity analysis showed that overall ethanol yield had the greatest effect on the MESP. These findings suggest that future efforts to increase the economic feasibility of a cellulosic ethanol process should focus on optimization for highest ethanol yield. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Behavioral Economics Applied to Energy Demand Analysis: A Foundation

EIA Publications

2014-01-01

Neoclassical economics has shaped our understanding of human behavior for several decades. While still an important starting point for economic studies, neoclassical frameworks have generally imposed strong assumptions, for example regarding utility maximization, information, and foresight, while treating consumer preferences as given or external to the framework. In real life, however, such strong assumptions tend to be less than fully valid. Behavioral economics refers to the study and formalizing of theories regarding deviations from traditionally-modeled economic decision-making in the behavior of individuals. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has an interest in behavioral economics as one influence on energy demand.

Model application niche analysis: Assessing the transferability and generalizability of ecological models

EPA Science Inventory

The use of models by ecologist and environmental managers, to inform environmental management and decision-making, has grown exponentially in the past 50 years. Due to logistical, economical and theoretical benefits, model users are frequently transferring preexisting models to n...

A Statistical Analysis of the Economic Drivers of Battery Energy Storage in Commercial Buildings: Preprint

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Long, Matthew; Simpkins, Travis; Cutler, Dylan

There is significant interest in using battery energy storage systems (BESS) to reduce peak demand charges, and therefore the life cycle cost of electricity, in commercial buildings. This paper explores the drivers of economic viability of BESS in commercial buildings through statistical analysis. A sample population of buildings was generated, a techno-economic optimization model was used to size and dispatch the BESS, and the resulting optimal BESS sizes were analyzed for relevant predictor variables. Explanatory regression analyses were used to demonstrate that peak demand charges are the most significant predictor of an economically viable battery, and that the shape ofmore » the load profile is the most significant predictor of the size of the battery.« less

A Statistical Analysis of the Economic Drivers of Battery Energy Storage in Commercial Buildings

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Long, Matthew; Simpkins, Travis; Cutler, Dylan

There is significant interest in using battery energy storage systems (BESS) to reduce peak demand charges, and therefore the life cycle cost of electricity, in commercial buildings. This paper explores the drivers of economic viability of BESS in commercial buildings through statistical analysis. A sample population of buildings was generated, a techno-economic optimization model was used to size and dispatch the BESS, and the resulting optimal BESS sizes were analyzed for relevant predictor variables. Explanatory regression analyses were used to demonstrate that peak demand charges are the most significant predictor of an economically viable battery, and that the shape ofmore » the load profile is the most significant predictor of the size of the battery.« less

Systems analysis in land-use planning... a conceptual development

Treesearch

Ronald A. Oliveira

1973-01-01

A planning model in which social, economic, and environmental constraints are specified--especially in mathematical form--can be helpful in decisionmaking. The general structure of a land-use decision model approached through systems analysis is described. The proposed procedures emphasize the quantification of interrelationships between uses and the specification of...

Workshop: Improving the Assessment and Valuation of Climate Change Impacts for Policy and Regulatory Analysis: Modeling Climate Change Impacts and Associated Economic Damages (2010 - part 1)

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The purpose of this workshop Improving the Assessment and Valuation of Climate Change Impacts for Policy and Regulatory Analysis. focused on conceptual and methodological issues - integrated assessment modeling and valuation.

NWTC Helps Guide U.S. Offshore R&D; NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

None

2015-07-01

The National Wind Technology Center (NWTC) at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) is helping guide our nation's research-and-development effort in offshore renewable energy, which includes: Design, modeling, and analysis tools; Device and component testing; Resource characterization; Economic modeling and analysis; Grid integration.

School-Based Influenza Vaccination: Health and Economic Impact of Maine's 2009 Influenza Vaccination Program.

PubMed

Basurto-Dávila, Ricardo; Meltzer, Martin I; Mills, Dora A; Beeler Asay, Garrett R; Cho, Bo-Hyun; Graitcer, Samuel B; Dube, Nancy L; Thompson, Mark G; Patel, Suchita A; Peasah, Samuel K; Ferdinands, Jill M; Gargiullo, Paul; Messonnier, Mark; Shay, David K

2017-12-01

To estimate the societal economic and health impacts of Maine's school-based influenza vaccination (SIV) program during the 2009 A(H1N1) influenza pandemic. Primary and secondary data covering the 2008-09 and 2009-10 influenza seasons. We estimated weekly monovalent influenza vaccine uptake in Maine and 15 other states, using difference-in-difference-in-differences analysis to assess the program's impact on immunization among six age groups. We also developed a health and economic Markov microsimulation model and conducted Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis. We used national survey data to estimate the impact of the SIV program on vaccine coverage. We used primary data and published studies to develop the microsimulation model. The program was associated with higher immunization among children and lower immunization among adults aged 18-49 years and 65 and older. The program prevented 4,600 influenza infections and generated $4.9 million in net economic benefits. Cost savings from lower adult vaccination accounted for 54 percent of the economic gain. Economic benefits were positive in 98 percent of Monte Carlo simulations. SIV may be a cost-beneficial approach to increase immunization during pandemics, but programs should be designed to prevent lower immunization among nontargeted groups. © Health Research and Educational Trust.

The ASAC Air Carrier Investment Model (Third Generation)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wingrove, Earl R., III; Gaier, Eric M.; Santmire, Tara E.

1998-01-01

To meet its objective of assisting the U.S. aviation industry with the technological challenges of the future, NASA must identify research areas that have the greatest potential for improving the operation of the air transportation system. To accomplish this, NASA is building an Aviation System Analysis Capability (ASAC). The ASAC differs from previous NASA modeling efforts in that the economic behavior of buyers and sellers in the air transportation and aviation industries is central to its conception. To link the economics of flight with the technology of flight, ASAC requires a parametrically based model with extensions that link airline operations and investments in aircraft with aircraft characteristics. This model also must provide a mechanism for incorporating air travel demand and profitability factors into the airlines' investment decisions. Finally, the model must be flexible and capable of being incorporated into a wide-ranging suite of economic and technical models flat are envisioned for ASAC.

Feasibilities of a Coal-Biomass to Liquids Plant in Southern West Virginia

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bhattacharyya, Debangsu; DVallance, David; Henthorn, Greg

This project has generated comprehensive and realistic results of feasibilities for a coal-biomass to liquids (CBTL) plant in southern West Virginia; and evaluated the sensitivity of the analyses to various anticipated scenarios and parametric uncertainties. Specifically the project has addressed economic feasibility, technical feasibility, market feasibility, and financial feasibility. In the economic feasibility study, a multi-objective siting model was developed and was then used to identify and rank the suitable facility sites. Spatial models were also developed to assess the biomass and coal feedstock availabilities and economics. Environmental impact analysis was conducted mainly to assess life cycle analysis and greenhousemore » gas emission. Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis were also investigated in this study. Sensitivity analyses on required selling price (RSP) and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of CBTL fuels were conducted according to feedstock availability and price, biomass to coal mix ratio, conversion rate, internal rate of return (IRR), capital cost, operational and maintenance cost. The study of siting and capacity showed that feedstock mixed ratio limited the CBTL production. The price of coal had a more dominant effect on RSP than that of biomass. Different mix ratios in the feedstock and conversion rates led to RSP ranging from $104.3 - $157.9/bbl. LCA results indicated that GHG emissions ranged from 80.62 kg CO 2 eq to 101.46 kg CO2 eq/1,000 MJ of liquid fuel at various biomass to coal mix ratios and conversion rates if carbon capture and storage (CCS) was applied. Most of water and fossil energy were consumed in conversion process. Compared to petroleum-derived-liquid fuels, the reduction in GHG emissions could be between -2.7% and 16.2% with CBTL substitution. As for the technical study, three approaches of coal and biomass to liquids, direct, indirect and hybrid, were considered in the analysis. The process models including conceptual design, process modeling and process validation were developed and validated for different cases. Equipment design and capital costs were investigated on capital coast estimation and economical model validation. Material and energy balances and techno-economic analysis on base case were conducted for evaluation of projects. Also, sensitives studies of direct and indirect approaches were both used to evaluate the CBTL plant economic performance. In this study, techno-economic analysis were conducted in Aspen Process Economic Analyzer (APEA) environment for indirect, direct, and hybrid CBTL plants with CCS based on high fidelity process models developed in Aspen Plus and Excel. The process thermal efficiency ranges from 45% to 67%. The break-even oil price ranges from $86.1 to $100.6 per barrel for small scale (10000 bbl/day) CBTL plants and from $65.3 to $80.5 per barrel for large scale (50000 bbl/day) CBTL plants. Increasing biomass/coal ratio from 8/92 to 20/80 would increase the break-even oil price of indirect CBTL plant by $3/bbl and decrease the break-even oil price of direct CBTL plant by about $1/bbl. The order of carbon capture penalty is direct > indirect > hybrid. The order of capital investment is hybrid (with or without shale gas utilization) > direct (without shale gas utilization) > indirect > direct (with shale gas utilization). The order of thermal efficiency is direct > hybrid > indirect. The order of break-even oil price is hybrid (without shale gas utilization) > direct (without shale gas utilization) > hybrid (with shale gas utilization) > indirect > direct (with shale gas utilization).« less

GPACC program cost work breakdown structure-dictionary. General purpose aft cargo carrier study, volume 3

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1985-01-01

The results of detailed cost estimates and economic analysis performed on the updated Model 101 configuration of the general purpose Aft Cargo Carrier (ACC) are given. The objective of this economic analysis is to provide the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) with information on the economics of using the ACC on the Space Transportation System (STS). The detailed cost estimates for the ACC are presented by a work breakdown structure (WBS) to ensure that all elements of cost are considered in the economic analysis and related subsystem trades. Costs reported by WBS provide NASA with a basis for comparing competing designs and provide detailed cost information that can be used to forecast phase C/D planning for new projects or programs derived from preliminary conceptual design studies. The scope covers all STS and STS/ACC launch vehicle cost impacts for delivering payloads to a 160 NM low Earth orbit (LEO).

The October 1973 NASA mission model analysis and economic assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1974-01-01

Results are presented of the 1973 NASA Mission Model Analysis. The purpose was to obtain an economic assessment of using the Shuttle to accommodate the payloads and requirements as identified by the NASA Program Offices and the DoD. The 1973 Payload Model represents a baseline candidate set of future payloads which can be used as a reference base for planning purposes. The cost of implementing these payload programs utilizing the capabilities of the shuttle system is analyzed and compared with the cost of conducting the same payload effort using expendable launch vehicles. There is a net benefit of 14.1 billion dollars as a result of using the shuttle during the 12-year period as compared to using an expendable launch vehicle fleet.

Using the Nobel Laureates in Economics to Teach Quantitative Methods

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Becker, William E.; Greene, William H.

2005-01-01

The authors show how the work of Nobel Laureates in economics can enhance student understanding and bring them up to date on topics such as probability, uncertainty and decision theory, hypothesis testing, regression to the mean, instrumental variable techniques, discrete choice modeling, and time-series analysis. (Contains 2 notes.)

NREL Suite of Tools for PV and Storage Analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Elgqvist, Emma M; Salasovich, James A

Many different factors such as the solar resource, technology costs and incentives, utility cost and consumption, space available, and financial parameters impact the technical and economic potential of a PV project. NREL has developed techno-economic modeling tools that can be used to evaluate PV projects at a site.

Job Attitudes among Different Occupational Status Groups. An Economic Analysis.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ronen, Simcha; Sadan, Simcha

1984-01-01

An economic model is applied to employee attitudinal variables to compare the contribution of intrinsic and extrinsic factors to job satisfaction for skilled workers and managers in an electronics manufacturing organization. Intrinsic rewards are found to increase in importance as employment level increases, suggesting different frames of…

Forest management and economics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Buongiorno, J.; Gilless, J.K.

1987-01-01

This volume provides a survey of quantitative methods, guiding the reader through formulation and analysis of models that address forest management problems. The authors use simple mathematics, graphics, and short computer programs to explain each method. Emphasizing applications, they discuss linear, integer, dynamic, and goal programming; simulation; network modeling; and econometrics, as these relate to problems of determining economic harvest schedules in even-aged and uneven-aged forests, the evaluation of forest policies, multiple-objective decision making, and more.

Structure analysis of tax revenue and inflation rate in Banda Aceh using vector error correction model with multiple alpha

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sofyan, Hizir; Maulia, Eva; Miftahuddin

2017-11-01

A country has several important parameters to achieve economic prosperity, such as tax revenue and inflation rate. One of the largest revenues of the State Budget in Indonesia comes from the tax sector. Meanwhile, the rate of inflation occurring in a country can be used as an indicator, to measure the good and bad economic problems faced by the country. Given the importance of tax revenue and inflation rate control in achieving economic prosperity, it is necessary to analyze the structure of tax revenue relations and inflation rate. This study aims to produce the best VECM (Vector Error Correction Model) with optimal lag using various alpha and perform structural analysis using the Impulse Response Function (IRF) of the VECM models to examine the relationship of tax revenue, and inflation in Banda Aceh. The results showed that the best model for the data of tax revenue and inflation rate in Banda Aceh City using alpha 0.01 is VECM with optimal lag 2, while the best model for data of tax revenue and inflation rate in Banda Aceh City using alpha 0.05 and 0,1 VECM with optimal lag 3. However, the VECM model with alpha 0.01 yielded four significant models of income tax model, inflation rate of Banda Aceh, inflation rate of health and inflation rate of education in Banda Aceh. While the VECM model with alpha 0.05 and 0.1 yielded one significant model that is income tax model. Based on the VECM models, then there are two structural analysis IRF which is formed to look at the relationship of tax revenue, and inflation in Banda Aceh, the IRF with VECM (2) and IRF with VECM (3).

Dynamic assessment of urban economy-environment-energy system using system dynamics model: A case study in Beijing.

PubMed

Wu, Desheng; Ning, Shuang

2018-07-01

Economic development, accompanying with environmental damage and energy depletion, becomes essential nowadays. There is a complicated and comprehensive interaction between economics, environment and energy. Understanding the operating mechanism of Energy-Environment-Economy model (3E) and its key factors is the inherent part in dealing with the issue. In this paper, we combine System Dynamics model and Geographic Information System to analyze the energy-environment-economy (3E) system both temporally and spatially, which explicitly explore the interaction of economics, energy, and environment and effects of the key influencing factors. Beijing is selected as a case study to verify our SD-GIS model. Alternative scenarios, e.g., current, technology, energy and environment scenarios are explored and compared. Simulation results shows that, current scenario is not sustainable; technology scenario is applicable to economic growth; environment scenario maintains a balanced path of development for long term stability. Policy-making insights are given based on our results and analysis. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Spatial Microsimulation for Rural Policy Analysis in Ireland: The Implications of CAP Reforms for the National Spatial Strategy

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ballas, D.; Clarke, G. P.; Wiemers, E.

2006-01-01

Microsimulation attempts to describe economic and social events by modelling the behaviour of individual agents. These models have proved useful in evaluating the impact of policy changes at the micro level. Spatial microsimulation models contain geographic information and allow for a regional or local approach to policy analysis. This paper…

Cost-effectiveness analysis of rotavirus vaccination among Libyan children using a simple economic model

PubMed Central

Alkoshi, Salem; Maimaiti, Namaitijiang; Dahlui, Maznah

2014-01-01

Background Rotavirus infection is a major cause of childhood diarrhea in Libya. The objective of this study is to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of rotavirus vaccination in that country. Methods We used a published decision tree model that has been adapted to the Libyan situation to analyze a birth cohort of 160,000 children. The evaluation of diarrhea events in three public hospitals helped to estimate the rotavirus burden. The economic analysis was done from two perspectives: health care provider and societal. Univariate sensitivity analyses were conducted to assess uncertainty in some values of the variables selected. Results The three hospitals received 545 diarrhea patients aged≤5 with 311 (57%) rotavirus positive test results during a 9-month period. The societal cost for treatment of a case of rotavirus diarrhea was estimated at US$ 661/event. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio with a vaccine price of US$ 27 per course was US$ 8,972 per quality-adjusted life year gained from the health care perspective. From a societal perspective, the analysis shows cost savings of around US$ 16 per child. Conclusion The model shows that rotavirus vaccination could be economically a very attractive intervention in Libya. PMID:25499622

Integrated Modeling, Mapping, and Simulation (IMMS) framework for planning exercises.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Friedman-Hill, Ernest J.; Plantenga, Todd D.

2010-06-01

The Integrated Modeling, Mapping, and Simulation (IMMS) program is designing and prototyping a simulation and collaboration environment for linking together existing and future modeling and simulation tools to enable analysts, emergency planners, and incident managers to more effectively, economically, and rapidly prepare, analyze, train, and respond to real or potential incidents. When complete, the IMMS program will demonstrate an integrated modeling and simulation capability that supports emergency managers and responders with (1) conducting 'what-if' analyses and exercises to address preparedness, analysis, training, operations, and lessons learned, and (2) effectively, economically, and rapidly verifying response tactics, plans and procedures.

2012 National Park visitor spending effects: economic contributions to local communities, states, and the nation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cullinane Thomas, Catherine; Huber, Christopher C.; Koontz, Lynne

2014-01-01

This 2012 analysis marks a major revision to the NPS visitor spending effects analyses, with the development of a new visitor spending effects model (VSE model) that replaces the former Money Generation Model (MGM2). Many of the hallmarks and processes of the MGM2 model are preserved in the new VSE model, but the new model makes significant strides in improving the accuracy and transparency of the analysis. Because of this change from the MGM2 model to the VSE model, estimates from this year’s analysis are not directly comparable to previous analyses.

A conceptual framework for economic optimization of single hazard surveillance in livestock production chains.

PubMed

Guo, Xuezhen; Claassen, G D H; Oude Lansink, A G J M; Saatkamp, H W

2014-06-01

Economic analysis of hazard surveillance in livestock production chains is essential for surveillance organizations (such as food safety authorities) when making scientifically based decisions on optimization of resource allocation. To enable this, quantitative decision support tools are required at two levels of analysis: (1) single-hazard surveillance system and (2) surveillance portfolio. This paper addresses the first level by presenting a conceptual approach for the economic analysis of single-hazard surveillance systems. The concept includes objective and subjective aspects of single-hazard surveillance system analysis: (1) a simulation part to derive an efficient set of surveillance setups based on the technical surveillance performance parameters (TSPPs) and the corresponding surveillance costs, i.e., objective analysis, and (2) a multi-criteria decision making model to evaluate the impacts of the hazard surveillance, i.e., subjective analysis. The conceptual approach was checked for (1) conceptual validity and (2) data validity. Issues regarding the practical use of the approach, particularly the data requirement, were discussed. We concluded that the conceptual approach is scientifically credible for economic analysis of single-hazard surveillance systems and that the practicability of the approach depends on data availability. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Projection of Diabetes Population Size and Associated Economic Burden through 2030 in Iran: Evidence from Micro-Simulation Markov Model and Bayesian Meta-Analysis

PubMed Central

Javanbakht, Mehdi; Mashayekhi, Atefeh; Baradaran, Hamid R.; Haghdoost, AliAkbar; Afshin, Ashkan

2015-01-01

Background The aim of this study was to estimate the economic burden of diabetes mellitus (DM) in Iran from 2009 to 2030. Methods A Markov micro-simulation (MM) model was developed to predict the DM population size and associated economic burden. Age- and sex-specific prevalence and incidence of diagnosed and undiagnosed DM were derived from national health surveys. A systematic review was performed to identify the cost of diabetes in Iran and the mean annual direct and indirect costs of patients with DM were estimated using a random-effect Bayesian meta-analysis. Face, internal, cross and predictive validity of the MM model were assessed by consulting an expert group, performing sensitivity analysis (SA) and comparing model results with published literature and national survey reports. Sensitivity analysis was also performed to explore the effect of uncertainty in the model. Results We estimated 3.78 million cases of DM (2.74 million diagnosed and 1.04 million undiagnosed) in Iran in 2009. This number is expected to rise to 9.24 million cases (6.73 million diagnosed and 2.50 million undiagnosed) by 2030. The mean annual direct and indirect costs of patients with DM in 2009 were US$ 556 (posterior standard deviation, 221) and US$ 689 (619), respectively. Total estimated annual cost of DM was $3.64 (2009 US$) billion (including US$1.71 billion direct and US$1.93 billion indirect costs) in 2009 and is predicted to increase to $9.0 (in 2009 US$) billion (including US$4.2 billion direct and US$4.8 billion indirect costs) by 2030. Conclusions The economic burden of DM in Iran is predicted to increase markedly in the coming decades. Identification and implementation of effective strategies to prevent and manage DM should be considered as a public health priority. PMID:26200913

Projection of Diabetes Population Size and Associated Economic Burden through 2030 in Iran: Evidence from Micro-Simulation Markov Model and Bayesian Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

Javanbakht, Mehdi; Mashayekhi, Atefeh; Baradaran, Hamid R; Haghdoost, AliAkbar; Afshin, Ashkan

2015-01-01

The aim of this study was to estimate the economic burden of diabetes mellitus (DM) in Iran from 2009 to 2030. A Markov micro-simulation (MM) model was developed to predict the DM population size and associated economic burden. Age- and sex-specific prevalence and incidence of diagnosed and undiagnosed DM were derived from national health surveys. A systematic review was performed to identify the cost of diabetes in Iran and the mean annual direct and indirect costs of patients with DM were estimated using a random-effect Bayesian meta-analysis. Face, internal, cross and predictive validity of the MM model were assessed by consulting an expert group, performing sensitivity analysis (SA) and comparing model results with published literature and national survey reports. Sensitivity analysis was also performed to explore the effect of uncertainty in the model. We estimated 3.78 million cases of DM (2.74 million diagnosed and 1.04 million undiagnosed) in Iran in 2009. This number is expected to rise to 9.24 million cases (6.73 million diagnosed and 2.50 million undiagnosed) by 2030. The mean annual direct and indirect costs of patients with DM in 2009 were US$ 556 (posterior standard deviation, 221) and US$ 689 (619), respectively. Total estimated annual cost of DM was $3.64 (2009 US$) billion (including US$1.71 billion direct and US$1.93 billion indirect costs) in 2009 and is predicted to increase to $9.0 (in 2009 US$) billion (including US$4.2 billion direct and US$4.8 billion indirect costs) by 2030. The economic burden of DM in Iran is predicted to increase markedly in the coming decades. Identification and implementation of effective strategies to prevent and manage DM should be considered as a public health priority.

A Techno-Economic Look at SiC WBG from Wafer to Motor Drive

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bench Reese, Samantha R; Horowitz, Kelsey A; Remo, Timothy W

Techno-economic analysis helps benchmark and deliver supply chain and manufacturing insights that can be leveraged by decision-makers to inform investment strategies, policy, and other decisions to promote economic growth and competitiveness. Silicon Carbide (SiC) wide-band gap (WBG) technologies is poised to be an integral contributor to the clean energy economy. We use bottoms-up regional manufacturing cost models to show SiC power electronics, manufactured in volume, could result in final product cost parity with those manufactured with silicon. The models are further leveraged to show innovation pathways to lower cost and potentially expanded technology adoption.

How Much? Cost Models for Online Education.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lorenzo, George

2001-01-01

Reviews some of the research being done in the area of cost models for online education. Describes a cost analysis handbook; an activity-based costing model that was based on an economic model for traditional instruction at the Indiana University Purdue University Indianapolis; and blending other costing models. (LRW)

A robust and flexible Geospatial Modeling Interface (GMI) for environmental model deployment and evaluation

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

This paper provides an overview of the GMI (Geospatial Modeling Interface) simulation framework for environmental model deployment and assessment. GMI currently provides access to multiple environmental models including AgroEcoSystem-Watershed (AgES-W), Nitrate Leaching and Economic Analysis 2 (NLEA...

The economics (or lack thereof) of aerosol geoengineering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goes, M.; Keller, K.; Tuana, N.

2009-04-01

Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are changing the Earth's climate and impose substantial risks for current and future generations. What are scientifically sound, economically viable, and ethically defendable strategies to manage these climate risks? Ratified international agreements call for a reduction of greenhouse gas emissions to avoid dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Recent proposals, however, call for the deployment of a different approach: to geoengineer climate by injecting aerosol precursors into the stratosphere. Published economic studies typically suggest that substituting aerosol geoengineering for abatement of carbon dioxide emissions results in large net monetary benefits. However, these studies neglect the risks of aerosol geoengineering due to (i) the potential for future geoengineering failures and (ii) the negative impacts associated with the aerosol forcing. Here we use a simple integrated assessment model of climate change to analyze potential economic impacts of aerosol geoengineering strategies over a wide range of uncertain parameters such as climate sensitivity, the economic damages due to climate change, and the economic damages due to aerosol geoengineering forcing. The simplicity of the model provides the advantages of parsimony and transparency, but it also imposes severe caveats on the interpretation of the results. For example, the analysis is based on a globally aggregated model and is hence silent on the question of intragenerational distribution of costs and benefits. In addition, the analysis neglects the effects of endogenous learning about the climate system. We show that the risks associated with a future geoengineering failure and negative impacts of aerosol forcings can cause geoenginering strategies to fail an economic cost-benefit test. One key to this finding is that a geoengineering failure would lead to dramatic and abrupt climatic changes. The monetary damages due to this failure can dominate the cost-benefit analysis because the monetary damages of climate change are expected to increase with the rate of change. Substituting aerosol geoengineering for greenhouse gas emission abatement might fail not only an economic cost-benefit test but also an ethical test of distributional justice. Substituting aerosol geoengineering for greenhouse gas emissions abatements constitutes a conscious risk transfer to future generations. Intergenerational justice demands distributional justice, namely that present generations may not create benefits for themselves in exchange for burdens on future generations. We use the economic model to quantify this risk transfer to better inform the judgment of whether substituting aerosol geoengineering for carbon dioxide emission abatement fails this ethical test.

Breeding objectives for pigs in Kenya. I: bio-economic model development and application to smallholder production systems.

PubMed

Mbuthia, Jackson M; Rewe, Thomas O; Kahi, Alexander K

2015-02-01

A deterministic bio-economic model was developed and applied to evaluate biological and economic variables that characterize smallholder pig production systems in Kenya. Two pig production systems were considered namely, semi-intensive (SI) and extensive (EX). The input variables were categorized into biological variables including production and functional traits, nutritional variables, management variables and economic variables. The model factored the various sow physiological systems including gestation, farrowing, lactation, growth and development. The model was developed to evaluate a farrow to finish operation, but the results were customized to account for a farrow to weaner operation for a comparative analysis. The operations were defined as semi-intensive farrow to finish (SIFF), semi-intensive farrow to weaner (SIFW), extensive farrow to finish (EXFF) and extensive farrow to weaner (EXFW). In SI, the profits were the highest at KES. 74,268.20 per sow per year for SIFF against KES. 4026.12 for SIFW. The corresponding profits for EX were KES. 925.25 and KES. 626.73. Feed costs contributed the major part of the total costs accounting for 67.0, 50.7, 60.5 and 44.5 % in the SIFF, SIFW, EXFF and EXFW operations, respectively. The bio-economic model developed could be extended with modifications for use in deriving economic values for breeding goal traits for pigs under smallholder production systems in other parts of the tropics.

Optimization Control of the Color-Coating Production Process for Model Uncertainty

PubMed Central

He, Dakuo; Wang, Zhengsong; Yang, Le; Mao, Zhizhong

2016-01-01

Optimized control of the color-coating production process (CCPP) aims at reducing production costs and improving economic efficiency while meeting quality requirements. However, because optimization control of the CCPP is hampered by model uncertainty, a strategy that considers model uncertainty is proposed. Previous work has introduced a mechanistic model of CCPP based on process analysis to simulate the actual production process and generate process data. The partial least squares method is then applied to develop predictive models of film thickness and economic efficiency. To manage the model uncertainty, the robust optimization approach is introduced to improve the feasibility of the optimized solution. Iterative learning control is then utilized to further refine the model uncertainty. The constrained film thickness is transformed into one of the tracked targets to overcome the drawback that traditional iterative learning control cannot address constraints. The goal setting of economic efficiency is updated continuously according to the film thickness setting until this reaches its desired value. Finally, fuzzy parameter adjustment is adopted to ensure that the economic efficiency and film thickness converge rapidly to their optimized values under the constraint conditions. The effectiveness of the proposed optimization control strategy is validated by simulation results. PMID:27247563

Optimization Control of the Color-Coating Production Process for Model Uncertainty.

PubMed

He, Dakuo; Wang, Zhengsong; Yang, Le; Mao, Zhizhong

2016-01-01

Optimized control of the color-coating production process (CCPP) aims at reducing production costs and improving economic efficiency while meeting quality requirements. However, because optimization control of the CCPP is hampered by model uncertainty, a strategy that considers model uncertainty is proposed. Previous work has introduced a mechanistic model of CCPP based on process analysis to simulate the actual production process and generate process data. The partial least squares method is then applied to develop predictive models of film thickness and economic efficiency. To manage the model uncertainty, the robust optimization approach is introduced to improve the feasibility of the optimized solution. Iterative learning control is then utilized to further refine the model uncertainty. The constrained film thickness is transformed into one of the tracked targets to overcome the drawback that traditional iterative learning control cannot address constraints. The goal setting of economic efficiency is updated continuously according to the film thickness setting until this reaches its desired value. Finally, fuzzy parameter adjustment is adopted to ensure that the economic efficiency and film thickness converge rapidly to their optimized values under the constraint conditions. The effectiveness of the proposed optimization control strategy is validated by simulation results.

A preliminary cost-effectiveness analysis of hepatitis E vaccination among pregnant women in epidemic regions.

PubMed

Zhao, Yueyuan; Zhang, Xuefeng; Zhu, Fengcai; Jin, Hui; Wang, Bei

2016-08-02

Objective To estimate the cost-effectiveness of hepatitis E vaccination among pregnant women in epidemic regions. Methods A decision tree model was constructed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of 3 hepatitis E virus vaccination strategies from societal perspectives. The model parameters were estimated on the basis of published studies and experts' experience. Sensitivity analysis was used to evaluate the uncertainties of the model. Results Vaccination was more economically effective on the basis of the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER< 3 times China's per capital gross domestic product/quality-adjusted life years); moreover, screening and vaccination had higher QALYs and lower costs compared with universal vaccination. No parameters significantly impacted ICER in one-way sensitivity analysis, and probabilistic sensitivity analysis also showed screening and vaccination to be the dominant strategy. Conclusion Screening and vaccination is the most economical strategy for pregnant women in epidemic regions; however, further studies are necessary to confirm the efficacy and safety of the hepatitis E vaccines.

Do open-cycle hatcheries relying on tourism conserve sea turtles? Sri Lankan developments and economic-ecological considerations.

PubMed

Tisdell, Clem; Wilson, Clevo

2005-04-01

By combining economic analysis of markets with ecological parameters, this article considers the role that tourism-based sea turtle hatcheries (of an open-cycle type) can play in conserving populations of sea turtles. Background is provided on the nature and development of such hatcheries in Sri Lanka. The modeling facilitates the assessment of the impacts of turtle hatcheries on the conservation of sea turtles and enables the economic and ecological consequences of tourism, based on such hatcheries, to be better appreciated. The results demonstrate that sea turtle hatcheries serving tourists can make a positive contribution to sea turtle conservation, but that their conservation effectiveness depends on the way they are managed. Possible negative effects are also identified. Economic market models are combined with turtle population survival relationships to predict the conservation impact of turtle hatcheries and their consequence for the total economic value obtained from sea turtle populations.

Stochastic effects in a discretized kinetic model of economic exchange

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bertotti, M. L.; Chattopadhyay, A. K.; Modanese, G.

2017-04-01

Linear stochastic models and discretized kinetic theory are two complementary analytical techniques used for the investigation of complex systems of economic interactions. The former employ Langevin equations, with an emphasis on stock trade; the latter is based on systems of ordinary differential equations and is better suited for the description of binary interactions, taxation and welfare redistribution. We propose a new framework which establishes a connection between the two approaches by introducing random fluctuations into the kinetic model based on Langevin and Fokker-Planck formalisms. Numerical simulations of the resulting model indicate positive correlations between the Gini index and the total wealth, that suggest a growing inequality with increasing income. Further analysis shows, in the presence of a conserved total wealth, a simultaneous decrease in inequality as social mobility increases, in conformity with economic data.

Achieving Sustainability in a Semi-Arid Basin in Northwest Mexico through an Integrated Hydrologic-Economic-Institutional Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Munoz-Hernandez, A.; Mayer, A. S.

2008-12-01

The hydrologic systems in Northwest Mexico are at risk of over exploitation due to poor management of the water resources and adverse climatic conditions. The purpose of this work is to create and Integrated Hydrologic-Economic-Institutional Model to support future development in the Yaqui River basin, well known by its agricultural productivity, by directing the water management practices toward sustainability. The Yaqui River basin is a semi-arid basin with an area of 72,000 square kilometers and an average precipitation of 527 mm per year. The primary user of water is agriculture followed by domestic use and industry. The water to meet user demands comes from three reservoirs constructed, in series, along the river. The main objective of the integrated simulation-optimization model is to maximize the economic benefit within the basin, subject to physical and environmental constraints. Decision variables include the water allocation to major users and reservoirs as well as aquifer releases. Economic and hydrologic (including the interaction of the surface water and groundwater) simulation models were both included in the integrated model. The surface water model refers to a rainfall-runoff model created, calibrated, and incorporated into a MATLAB code that estimates the monthly storage in the main reservoirs by solving a water balance. The rainfall-runoff model was coupled with a groundwater model of the Yaqui Valley which was previously developed (Addams, 2004). This model includes flow in the main canals and infiltration to the aquifer. The economic benefit of water for some activities such as agricultural use, domestic use, hydropower generation, and environmental value was determined. Sensitivity analysis was explored for those parameters that are not certain such as price elasticities or population growth. Different water allocation schemes were created based on climate change, climate variability, and socio-economic scenarios. Addams L. 2004. Water resource policy evaluation using a combined hydrologic-economic-agronomic modeling framework: Yaqui Valley, Sonora, Mexico. Ph.D.dissertation, Stanford University.

Dynamics of coupled human-landscape systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Werner, B. T.; McNamara, D. E.

2007-11-01

A preliminary dynamical analysis of landscapes and humans as hierarchical complex systems suggests that strong coupling between the two that spreads to become regionally or globally pervasive should be focused at multi-year to decadal time scales. At these scales, landscape dynamics is dominated by water, sediment and biological routing mediated by fluvial, oceanic, atmospheric processes and human dynamics is dominated by simplifying, profit-maximizing market forces and political action based on projection of economic effect. Also at these scales, landscapes impact humans through patterns of natural disasters and trends such as sea level rise; humans impact landscapes by the effect of economic activity and changes meant to mitigate natural disasters and longer term trends. Based on this analysis, human-landscape coupled systems can be modeled using heterogeneous agents employing prediction models to determine actions to represent the nonlinear behavior of economic and political systems and rule-based routing algorithms to represent landscape processes. A cellular model for the development of New Orleans illustrates this approach, with routing algorithms for river and hurricane-storm surge determining flood extent, five markets (home, labor, hotel, tourism and port services) connecting seven types of economic agents (home buyers/laborers, home developers, hotel owners/ employers, hotel developers, tourists, port services developer and port services owners/employers), building of levees or a river spillway by political agents and damage to homes, hotels or port services within cells determined by the passage or depth of flood waters. The model reproduces historical aspects of New Orleans economic development and levee construction and the filtering of frequent small-scale floods at the expense of large disasters.

An Economic Analysis of the Benefits and Costs of the Clean Air Act 1970 TO 1990: Revised Report of Results and Findings (2002)

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The analyses covered in this report examine the consequences of these costs and benefits for overall economic performance and welfare. They are based on the application of a multi-sector, inter-temporal general equilibrium model of the U.S. economy.

Generative Teaching and Learning of Economic Concepts: A Sample Lesson.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Laney, James D.

1990-01-01

Presents a scripted lesson plan for intermediate grades, based on M.C. Wittrock's model of generative teaching derived from brain lateralization research. Uses a shopping mall as the setting for hypothetical dilemmas. Offers a combination of verbal and imagined strategies that improve students' economic reasoning and teaches cost-benefit analysis.…

Education and Economic Growth in Pakistan: A Cointegration and Causality Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Afzal, Muhammad; Rehman, Hafeez Ur; Farooq, Muhammad Shahid; Sarwar, Kafeel

2011-01-01

This study explored the cointegration and causality between education and economic growth in Pakistan by using time series data on real gross domestic product (RGDP), labour force, physical capital and education from 1970-1971 to 2008-2009 were used. Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Model of Cointegration and the Augmented Granger Causality…

The analysis of the influence of the intellectual capital on the results of the commercial activity of financial institutions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shkolik, Oleg; Chirkova, Larisa; Chirkova, Polina

2016-08-01

Developing (underdeveloped) countries are territories of slow economic growth (catch-up growth). Perspectives of their economic growth largely depend on developing and introducing financial and technological innovations in the sphere of the financial markets. The level and quality of those innovations should enable provision of faster growth of the financial sector of the national economy by rising stability and effectiveness of the financial institutions. Powerful and stable financial sector is the basic element for attracting investments and upsurge of liquidity in the economic system of a developing country that aims to have developed economy. Intellectual capital is the most important of the fundamental factors of production in the financial sphere. It is a catalytic element of the process of the economic development. From this position, the researchers' collective develops and presents a mathematical model which characterizes the connection between the intellectual capital and financial results of the commercial activity of financial institutions. The model is applied in the analysis of the activity of financial institutions that are part of the EEU.

Reference Model 5 (RM5): Oscillating Surge Wave Energy Converter

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yu, Y. H.; Jenne, D. S.; Thresher, R.

This report is an addendum to SAND2013-9040: Methodology for Design and Economic Analysis of Marine Energy Conversion (MEC) Technologies. This report describes an Oscillating Water Column Wave Energy Converter (OSWEC) reference model design in a complementary manner to Reference Models 1-4 contained in the above report. A conceptual design for a taut moored oscillating surge wave energy converter was developed. The design had an annual electrical power of 108 kilowatts (kW), rated power of 360 kW, and intended deployment at water depths between 50 m and 100 m. The study includes structural analysis, power output estimation, a hydraulic power conversionmore » chain system, and mooring designs. The results were used to estimate device capital cost and annual operation and maintenance costs. The device performance and costs were used for the economic analysis, following the methodology presented in SAND2013-9040 that included costs for designing, manufacturing, deploying, and operating commercial-scale MEC arrays up to 100 devices. The levelized cost of energy estimated for the Reference Model 5 OSWEC, presented in this report, was for a single device and arrays of 10, 50, and 100 units, and it enabled the economic analysis to account for cost reductions associated with economies of scale. The baseline commercial levelized cost of energy estimate for the Reference Model 5 device in an array comprised of 10 units is $1.44/kilowatt-hour (kWh), and the value drops to approximately $0.69/kWh for an array of 100 units.« less

Techno-economic analysis for the evaluation of three UCG synthesis gas end use approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nakaten, Natalie; Kempka, Thomas; Burchart-Korol, Dorota; Krawczyk, Piotr; Kapusta, Krzysztof; Stańczyk, Krzysztof

2016-04-01

Underground coal gasification (UCG) enables the utilization of coal reserves that are economically not exploitable because of complex geological boundary conditions. In the present study we investigate UCG as a potential economic approach for conversion of deep-seated coals into a synthesis gas and its application within three different utilization options. Related to geological boundary conditions and the chosen gasification agent, UCG synthesis gas composes of varying methane, hydrogen, nitrogen, carbon monoxide and carbon dioxide amounts. In accordance to its calorific value, the processed UCG synthesis gas can be utilized in different manners, as for electricity generation in a combined cycle power plant or for feedstock production making use of its various chemical components. In the present study we analyze UCG synthesis gas utilization economics in the context of clean electricity generation with an integrated carbon capture and storage process (CCS) as well as synthetic fuel and fertilizer production (Kempka et al., 2010) based on a gas composition achieved during an in situ UCG trial in the Wieczorek Mine. Hereby, we also consider chemical feedstock production in order to mitigate CO2 emissions. Within a sensitivity analysis of UCG synthesis gas calorific value variations, we produce a range of capital and operational expenditure bandwidths that allow for an economic assessment of different synthesis gas end use approaches. To carry out the integrated techno-economic assessment of the coupled systems and the sensitivity analysis, we adapted the techno-economic UCG-CCS model developed by Nakaten et al. (2014). Our techno-economic modeling results demonstrate that the calorific value has a high impact on the economics of UCG synthesis gas utilization. In the underlying study, the synthesis gas is not suitable for an economic competitive electricity generation, due to the relatively low calorific value of 4.5 MJ/Nm³. To be a profitable option for electricity production, the UCG synthesis gas should have a calorific value of at least 7 MJ/Nm³. However, UCG feedstock production in view of the underlying geological and chemical boundary conditions can compete on the market. Kempka, T., Plötz, M.L., Hamann, J., Deowan, S.A., Azzam, R. (2010) Carbon dioxide utilisation for carbamide production by application of the coupled UCG-urea process. Energy Procedia 4: 2200-2205. Nakaten, N., Schlüter, R., Azzam, R., Kempka, T. (2014) Development of a techno-economic model for dynamic calculation of COE, energy demand and CO2 emissions of an integrated UCG-CCS process. Energy (in print). Doi 10.1016/j.energy.2014.01.014

3. How comprehensive can we be in the economic assessment of vaccines?

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

ABSTRACT In two previous papers we argued on current vaccines economic assessment not fully comprehensive when using the incremental cost-utility analysis normally applied for treatments. Many differences exist between vaccines and drug treatments making vaccines economic evaluation more cumbersome. Four challenges overwhelmingly present in vaccines assessment are less important for treatments: requirements for population, societal perspectives, budget impact evaluation, and time focused objectives (control or elimination). Based on this, economic analysis of vaccines may need to be presented to many different stakeholders with various evaluation preferences, in addition to the current stakeholders involved for drugs treatment assessment. Then, we may need a tool making the inventory of the different vaccines health economic assessment programmes more comprehensive. The cauliflower value toolbox has been developed with that aim, and its use is illustrated here with rotavirus vaccine. Given the broader perspectives for vaccine assessment, it provides better value and cost evaluations. Cost-benefit analysis may be the preferred economic assessment method when considering substitution from treatment to active medical prevention. Other economic evaluation methods can be selected (i.e. optimisation modelling, return on investment) when project prioritisation is the main focus considered and when stakeholders would like to influence the development of the healthcare programme. PMID:29785253

Development of Regional Supply Functions and a Least-Cost Model for Allocating Water Resources in Utah: A Parametric Linear Programming Approach.

DTIC Science & Technology

SYSTEMS ANALYSIS, * WATER SUPPLIES, MATHEMATICAL MODELS, OPTIMIZATION, ECONOMICS, LINEAR PROGRAMMING, HYDROLOGY, REGIONS, ALLOCATIONS, RESTRAINT, RIVERS, EVAPORATION, LAKES, UTAH, SALVAGE, MINES(EXCAVATIONS).

Manual-control Analysis Applied to the Money-supply Control Task

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wingrove, R. C.

1984-01-01

The recent procedure implemented by the Federal Reserve Board to control the money supply is formulated in the form of a tracking model as used in the study of manual-control tasks. Using this model, an analysis is made to determine the effect of monetary control on the fluctuations in economic output. The results indicate that monetary control can reduce the amplitude of fluctuations at frequencies near the region of historic business cycles. However, with significant time lags in the control loop, monetary control tends to increase the amplitude of the fluctuations at the higher frequencies. How the investigator or student can use the tools developed in the field of manual-control analysis to study the nature of economic fluctuations and to examine different strategies for stabilization is examined.

Finding Resolution for the Responsible Transparency of Economic Models in Health and Medicine.

PubMed

Padula, William V; McQueen, Robert Brett; Pronovost, Peter J

2017-11-01

The Second Panel on Cost-Effectiveness in Health and Medicine recommendations for conduct, methodological practices, and reporting of cost-effectiveness analyses has a number of questions unanswered with respect to the implementation of transparent, open source code interface for economic models. The possibility of making economic model source code could be positive and progressive for the field; however, several unintended consequences of this system should be first considered before complete implementation of this model. First, there is the concern regarding intellectual property rights that modelers have to their analyses. Second, the open source code could make analyses more accessible to inexperienced modelers, leading to inaccurate or misinterpreted results. We propose several resolutions to these concerns. The field should establish a licensing system of open source code such that the model originators maintain control of the code use and grant permissions to other investigators who wish to use it. The field should also be more forthcoming towards the teaching of cost-effectiveness analysis in medical and health services education so that providers and other professionals are familiar with economic modeling and able to conduct analyses with open source code. These types of unintended consequences need to be fully considered before the field's preparedness to move forward into an era of model transparency with open source code.

Socio-economic factors and suicide rates in European Union countries.

PubMed

Ferretti, Fabio; Coluccia, Anna

2009-04-01

Are socio-economic factors valid determinants of suicide? The modern sociological theory of suicide is based on Durkheim's studies. In addition to these fundamental social determinants, modern theorists have put more attention on economic factors. The purpose of the research is to determine the relationship between suicide rates and socio-economic factors, such as demography, economic development, education, healthcare systems, living conditions and labour market. All data were collected from a Eurostat publication and they concern 25 European Union countries. In order to test this relationship, a discriminant analysis was performed using an ordinal dependent variable and a set of independent variables concerning socio-economic factors. A dataset of 37 independent variables was used. We estimated a model with five variables: annual growth rates for industry, people working in S&T (% of total employment), at-risk-of-poverty rate, all accidents (standardized rates), and healthcare expenditures (% of GDP). Highly significant values of Wilk's Lambda assess a good discriminating power of the model. The accuracy too is very high: all cases are correctly classified by the model. Countries with high suicide rate levels are marked by high levels of at-risk-of-poverty rates, high annual growth rates for industry and low healthcare expenditures.

A new spatial multiple discrete-continuous modeling approach to land use change analysis.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-09-01

This report formulates a multiple discrete-continuous probit (MDCP) land-use model within a : spatially explicit economic structural framework for land-use change decisions. The spatial : MDCP model is capable of predicting both the type and intensit...

Process modeling and supply chain design for advanced biofuel production based on bio-oil gasification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Qi

As a potential substitute for petroleum-based fuel, second generation biofuels are playing an increasingly important role due to their economic, environmental, and social benefits. With the rapid development of biofuel industry, there has been an increasing literature on the techno-economic analysis and supply chain design for biofuel production based on a variety of production pathways. A recently proposed production pathway of advanced biofuel is to convert biomass to bio-oil at widely distributed small-scale fast pyrolysis plants, then gasify the bio-oil to syngas and upgrade the syngas to transportation fuels in centralized biorefinery. This thesis aims to investigate two types of assessments on this bio-oil gasification pathway: techno-economic analysis based on process modeling and literature data; supply chain design with a focus on optimal decisions for number of facilities to build, facility capacities and logistic decisions considering uncertainties. A detailed process modeling with corn stover as feedstock and liquid fuels as the final products is presented. Techno-economic analysis of the bio-oil gasification pathway is also discussed to assess the economic feasibility. Some preliminary results show a capital investment of 438 million dollar and minimum fuel selling price (MSP) of $5.6 per gallon of gasoline equivalent. The sensitivity analysis finds that MSP is most sensitive to internal rate of return (IRR), biomass feedstock cost, and fixed capital cost. A two-stage stochastic programming is formulated to solve the supply chain design problem considering uncertainties in biomass availability, technology advancement, and biofuel price. The first-stage makes the capital investment decisions including the locations and capacities of the decentralized fast pyrolysis plants and the centralized biorefinery while the second-stage determines the biomass and biofuel flows. The numerical results and case study illustrate that considering uncertainties can be pivotal in this supply chain design and optimization problem. Also, farmers' participation has a significant effect on the decision making process.

Economic Incentives for Cybersecurity: Using Economics to Design Technologies Ready for Deployment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Vishik, Claire; Sheldon, Frederick T; Ott, David

Cybersecurity practice lags behind cyber technology achievements. Solutions designed to address many problems may and do exist but frequently cannot be broadly deployed due to economic constraints. Whereas security economics focuses on the cost/benefit analysis and supply/demand, we believe that more sophisticated theoretical approaches, such as economic modeling, rarely utilized, would derive greater societal benefits. Unfortunately, today technologists pursuing interesting and elegant solutions have little knowledge of the feasibility for broad deployment of their results and cannot anticipate the influences of other technologies, existing infrastructure, and technology evolution, nor bring the solutions lifecycle into the equation. Additionally, potentially viable solutionsmore » are not adopted because the risk perceptions by potential providers and users far outweighs the economic incentives to support introduction/adoption of new best practices and technologies that are not well enough defined. In some cases, there is no alignment with redominant and future business models as well as regulatory and policy requirements. This paper provides an overview of the economics of security, reviewing work that helped to define economic models for the Internet economy from the 1990s. We bring forward examples of potential use of theoretical economics in defining metrics for emerging technology areas, positioning infrastructure investment, and building real-time response capability as part of software development. These diverse examples help us understand the gaps in current research. Filling these gaps will be instrumental for defining viable economic incentives, economic policies, regulations as well as early-stage technology development approaches, that can speed up commercialization and deployment of new technologies in cybersecurity.« less

The BCD of response time analysis in experimental economics.

PubMed

Spiliopoulos, Leonidas; Ortmann, Andreas

2018-01-01

For decisions in the wild, time is of the essence. Available decision time is often cut short through natural or artificial constraints, or is impinged upon by the opportunity cost of time. Experimental economists have only recently begun to conduct experiments with time constraints and to analyze response time (RT) data, in contrast to experimental psychologists. RT analysis has proven valuable for the identification of individual and strategic decision processes including identification of social preferences in the latter case, model comparison/selection, and the investigation of heuristics that combine speed and performance by exploiting environmental regularities. Here we focus on the benefits, challenges, and desiderata of RT analysis in strategic decision making. We argue that unlocking the potential of RT analysis requires the adoption of process-based models instead of outcome-based models, and discuss how RT in the wild can be captured by time-constrained experiments in the lab. We conclude that RT analysis holds considerable potential for experimental economics, deserves greater attention as a methodological tool, and promises important insights on strategic decision making in naturally occurring environments.

Socio-economic disparities in health system responsiveness in India.

PubMed

Malhotra, Chetna; Do, Young Kyung

2013-03-01

To assess the magnitude of socio-economic disparities in health system responsiveness in India after correcting for potential reporting heterogeneity by socio-economic characteristics (education and wealth). Data from Wave 1 of the Study on Global Ageing and Adult Health (2007-2008) involving six Indian states were used. Seven health system responsiveness domains were considered for a respondent's last visit to an outpatient service in 12 months: prompt attention, dignity, clarity of information, autonomy, confidentiality, choice and quality of basic amenities. Hierarchical ordered probit models (correcting for reporting heterogeneity through anchoring vignettes) were used to assess the association of socio-economic characteristics with the seven responsiveness domains, controlling for age, gender and area of residence. Stratified analysis was also conducted among users of public and private health facilities. Our statistical models accounting for reporting heterogeneity revealed socio-economic disparities in all health system responsiveness domains. Estimates suggested that individuals from the lowest wealth group, for example, were less likely than individuals from the highest wealth group to report 'very good' on the dignity domain by 8% points (10% vs 18%). Stratified analysis showed that such disparities existed among users of both public and private health facilities. Socio-economic disparities exist in health system responsiveness in India, irrespective of the type of health facility used. Policy efforts to monitor and improve these disparities are required at the health system level.

Tools for Economic Analysis of Patient Management Interventions in Heart Failure Cost-Effectiveness Model: A Web-based program designed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of disease management programs in heart failure.

PubMed

Reed, Shelby D; Neilson, Matthew P; Gardner, Matthew; Li, Yanhong; Briggs, Andrew H; Polsky, Daniel E; Graham, Felicia L; Bowers, Margaret T; Paul, Sara C; Granger, Bradi B; Schulman, Kevin A; Whellan, David J; Riegel, Barbara; Levy, Wayne C

2015-11-01

Heart failure disease management programs can influence medical resource use and quality-adjusted survival. Because projecting long-term costs and survival is challenging, a consistent and valid approach to extrapolating short-term outcomes would be valuable. We developed the Tools for Economic Analysis of Patient Management Interventions in Heart Failure Cost-Effectiveness Model, a Web-based simulation tool designed to integrate data on demographic, clinical, and laboratory characteristics; use of evidence-based medications; and costs to generate predicted outcomes. Survival projections are based on a modified Seattle Heart Failure Model. Projections of resource use and quality of life are modeled using relationships with time-varying Seattle Heart Failure Model scores. The model can be used to evaluate parallel-group and single-cohort study designs and hypothetical programs. Simulations consist of 10,000 pairs of virtual cohorts used to generate estimates of resource use, costs, survival, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios from user inputs. The model demonstrated acceptable internal and external validity in replicating resource use, costs, and survival estimates from 3 clinical trials. Simulations to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of heart failure disease management programs across 3 scenarios demonstrate how the model can be used to design a program in which short-term improvements in functioning and use of evidence-based treatments are sufficient to demonstrate good long-term value to the health care system. The Tools for Economic Analysis of Patient Management Interventions in Heart Failure Cost-Effectiveness Model provides researchers and providers with a tool for conducting long-term cost-effectiveness analyses of disease management programs in heart failure. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Economic decision making and the application of nonparametric prediction models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Attanasi, E.D.; Coburn, T.C.; Freeman, P.A.

2008-01-01

Sustained increases in energy prices have focused attention on gas resources in low-permeability shale or in coals that were previously considered economically marginal. Daily well deliverability is often relatively small, although the estimates of the total volumes of recoverable resources in these settings are often large. Planning and development decisions for extraction of such resources must be areawide because profitable extraction requires optimization of scale economies to minimize costs and reduce risk. For an individual firm, the decision to enter such plays depends on reconnaissance-level estimates of regional recoverable resources and on cost estimates to develop untested areas. This paper shows how simple nonparametric local regression models, used to predict technically recoverable resources at untested sites, can be combined with economic models to compute regional-scale cost functions. The context of the worked example is the Devonian Antrim-shale gas play in the Michigan basin. One finding relates to selection of the resource prediction model to be used with economic models. Models chosen because they can best predict aggregate volume over larger areas (many hundreds of sites) smooth out granularity in the distribution of predicted volumes at individual sites. This loss of detail affects the representation of economic cost functions and may affect economic decisions. Second, because some analysts consider unconventional resources to be ubiquitous, the selection and order of specific drilling sites may, in practice, be determined arbitrarily by extraneous factors. The analysis shows a 15-20% gain in gas volume when these simple models are applied to order drilling prospects strategically rather than to choose drilling locations randomly. Copyright ?? 2008 Society of Petroleum Engineers.

Dynamic Transmission Economic Evaluation of Infectious Disease Interventions in Low- and Middle-Income Countries: A Systematic Literature Review.

PubMed

Drake, Tom L; Devine, Angela; Yeung, Shunmay; Day, Nicholas P J; White, Lisa J; Lubell, Yoel

2016-02-01

Economic evaluation using dynamic transmission models is important for capturing the indirect effects of infectious disease interventions. We examine the use of these methods in low- and middle-income countries, where infectious diseases constitute a major burden. This review is comprised of two parts: (1) a summary of dynamic transmission economic evaluations across all disease areas published between 2011 and mid-2014 and (2) an in-depth review of mosquito-borne disease studies focusing on health economic methods and reporting. Studies were identified through a systematic search of the MEDLINE database and supplemented by reference list screening. Fifty-seven studies were eligible for inclusion in the all-disease review. The most common subject disease was HIV/AIDS, followed by malaria. A diverse range of modelling methods, outcome metrics and sensitivity analyses were used, indicating little standardisation. Seventeen studies were included in the mosquito-borne disease review. With notable exceptions, most studies did not employ economic evaluation methods beyond calculating a cost-effectiveness ratio or net benefit. Many did not adhere to health care economic evaluations reporting guidelines, particularly with respect to full model reporting and uncertainty analysis. We present a summary of the state-of-the-art and offer recommendations for improved implementation and reporting of health economic methods in this crossover discipline. © 2016 The Authors. Health Economics published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The U.S. Federal Government's Efforts to Estimate an Economic Value for Reduced Carbon Emissions (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wolverton, A.

2010-12-01

This presentation will summarize the technical process and results from recent U.S. Federal government efforts to estimate the “social cost of carbon” (SCC); the monetized damages associated with an incremental increase in carbon dioxide emissions in a given year. The purpose of the SCC estimates is to make it possible for Federal agencies to incorporate the social benefits from reducing CO2 emissions into cost-benefit analyses of regulatory actions that have relatively small impacts on cumulative global emissions. An interagency working group initiated a comprehensive analysis using three integrated assessment models. The interagency group chose to rely on three of the most widely recognized peer-reviewed models to fairly represent differences in the way in which economic impacts from climate change are modeled (DICE, PAGE, and FUND). The main objective of this process was to develop a range of SCC values using a defensible set of input assumptions grounded in the existing scientific and economic literatures. In this way, key uncertainties and model differences transparently and consistently inform the range of SCC estimates used in the rulemaking process. This proved challenging since the literature did not always agree on the best path forward. In some cases the group agreed to a range of assumptions to allow for uncertainty analysis (e.g., they include 5 different socioeconomic scenarios in the Monte Carlo analysis to reflect uncertainty about how future economic and population growth and energy systems will develop over the next 100 years). The four values selected for regulatory analysis included three estimates based on the average SCC from three integrated assessment models over a range of discount rates, since there is wide disagreement on which to apply in an inter-generational context. The fourth value represents the 95th percentile SCC estimate across all three models at a 3 percent discount rate and is included to represent higher-than-expected impacts from temperature change further out in the tails of the SCC distribution. The interagency working group recognized that there are a number of serious challenges in attempting to assess the incremental economic impacts of CO2 emissions. A recent report from the National Academies of Science (NRC 2009) points out that any assessment will suffer from uncertainty, speculation, and lack of information about future emissions of greenhouse gases, the effects of emissions on the climate system, the impact of changes in climate on the physical and biological environment, and the translation of these environmental impacts into economic damages. In addition to highlighting key areas in need of future research in the interagency technical document, the Department of Energy and the Environmental Protection Agency are planning two workshops that will bring the very best climate modelers from the scientific and economic community together to discuss key gaps in the literature and how to improve current modeling capabilities. I will briefly summarize the main outcomes from the first of two workshops, scheduled to occur in November 2010.

Reusable Launch Vehicle (RLV) Market Analysis Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Prince, Frank A.

1999-01-01

The RLV Market Analysis model is at best a rough order approximation of actual market behavior. However, it does give a quick indication if the flights exists to enable an economically viable RLV, and the assumptions necessary for the vehicle to capture those flights. Additional analysis, market research, and updating with the latest information on payloads and launches would improve the model. Plans are to update the model as new information becomes available and new requirements are levied. This tool will continue to be a vital part of NASA's RLV business analysis capability for the foreseeable future.

Economic analysis of recycling contaminated concrete

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stephen, A.; Ayers, K.W.; Boren, J.K.

1997-02-01

Decontamination and Decommissioning activities in the DOE complex generate large volumes of radioactively contaminated and uncontaminated concrete. Currently, this concrete is usually decontaminated, the contaminated waste is disposed of in a LLW facility and the decontaminated concrete is placed in C&D landfills. A number of alternatives to this practice are available including recycling of the concrete. Cost estimates for six alternatives were developed using a spreadsheet model. The results of this analysis show that recycling alternatives are at least as economical as current practice.

The role of models in estimating consequences as part of the risk assessment process.

PubMed

Forde-Folle, K; Mitchell, D; Zepeda, C

2011-08-01

The degree of disease risk represented by the introduction, spread, or establishment of one or several diseases through the importation of animals and animal products is assessed by importing countries through an analysis of risk. The components of a risk analysis include hazard identification, risk assessment, risk management, and risk communication. A risk assessment starts with identification of the hazard(s) and then continues with four interrelated steps: release assessment, exposure assessment, consequence assessment, and risk estimation. Risk assessments may be either qualitative or quantitative. This paper describes how, through the integration of epidemiological and economic models, the potential adverse biological and economic consequences of exposure can be quantified.

Stability analysis on an economic epidemiological model with vaccination Pages : - , and.

PubMed

Avusuglo, Wisdom S; Abdella, Kenzu; Feng, Wenying

2017-08-01

In this paper, an economic epidemiological model with vaccination is studied. The stability of the endemic steady-state is analyzed and some bifurcation properties of the system are investigated. It is established that the system exhibits saddle-point and period-doubling bifurcations when adult susceptible individuals are vaccinated. Furthermore, it is shown that susceptible individuals also have the tendency of opting for more number of contacts even if the vaccine is inefficacious and thus causes the disease endemic to increase in the long run. Results from sensitivity analysis with specific disease parameters are also presented. Finally, it is shown that the qualitative behaviour of the system is affected by contact levels.

Using life cycle assessment and techno-economic analysis in a real options framework to inform the design of algal biofuel production facilities.

PubMed

Kern, Jordan D; Hise, Adam M; Characklis, Greg W; Gerlach, Robin; Viamajala, Sridhar; Gardner, Robert D

2017-02-01

This study investigates the use of "real options analysis" (ROA) to quantify the value of greater product flexibility at algal biofuel production facilities. A deterministic optimization framework is integrated with a combined life cycle assessment/techno-economic analysis model and subjected to an ensemble of 30-year commodity price trajectories. Profits are maximized for two competing plant configurations: 1) one that sells lipid-extracted algae as animal feed only; and 2) one that can sell lipid-extracted algae as feed or use it to recover nutrients and energy, due to an up-front investment in anaerobic digestion/combined heat and power. Results show that added investment in plant flexibility does not result in an improvement in net present value, because current feed meal prices discourage use of lipid-extracted algae for nutrient and energy recovery. However, this study demonstrates that ROA provides many useful insights regarding plant design that cannot be captured via traditional techno-economic modeling. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Application and evaluation of forecasting methods for municipal solid waste generation in an Eastern-European city.

PubMed

Rimaityte, Ingrida; Ruzgas, Tomas; Denafas, Gintaras; Racys, Viktoras; Martuzevicius, Dainius

2012-01-01

Forecasting of generation of municipal solid waste (MSW) in developing countries is often a challenging task due to the lack of data and selection of suitable forecasting method. This article aimed to select and evaluate several methods for MSW forecasting in a medium-scaled Eastern European city (Kaunas, Lithuania) with rapidly developing economics, with respect to affluence-related and seasonal impacts. The MSW generation was forecast with respect to the economic activity of the city (regression modelling) and using time series analysis. The modelling based on social-economic indicators (regression implemented in LCA-IWM model) showed particular sensitivity (deviation from actual data in the range from 2.2 to 20.6%) to external factors, such as the synergetic effects of affluence parameters or changes in MSW collection system. For the time series analysis, the combination of autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and seasonal exponential smoothing (SES) techniques were found to be the most accurate (mean absolute percentage error equalled to 6.5). Time series analysis method was very valuable for forecasting the weekly variation of waste generation data (r (2) > 0.87), but the forecast yearly increase should be verified against the data obtained by regression modelling. The methods and findings of this study may assist the experts, decision-makers and scientists performing forecasts of MSW generation, especially in developing countries.

Comparing the Efficiencies of Third Molar Surgeries With and Without a Dentist Anesthesiologist.

PubMed

Reebye, Uday; Young, S; Boukas, E; Davidian, E; Carnahan, J

2017-01-01

Two different anesthesia models were compared in terms of surgical duration, safer outcomes, and economic implications. Third molar surgeries performed with and without a separate dentist anesthesiologist were evaluated by a retrospective data analysis of the surgical operative times. For more difficult surgeries, substantially shorter operative times were observed with the dentist anesthesiologist model, leading to a more favorable surgical outcome. An example calculation is presented to demonstrate economic advantages of scheduling the participation of a dentist anesthesiologist for more difficult surgeries.

77 FR 13607 - Agency Forms Undergoing Paperwork Reduction Act Review

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-03-07

... Transformation Grants: Use of System Dynamic Modeling and Economic Analysis in Select Communities--New--National... community interventions. Using a system dynamics approach, CDC also plans to conduct simulation modeling... the development of analytic tools for system dynamics modeling under more limited conditions. The...

A complex systems approach to constructing better models for managing financial markets and the economy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farmer, J. Doyne; Gallegati, M.; Hommes, C.; Kirman, A.; Ormerod, P.; Cincotti, S.; Sanchez, A.; Helbing, D.

2012-11-01

We outline a vision for an ambitious program to understand the economy and financial markets as a complex evolving system of coupled networks of interacting agents. This is a completely different vision from that currently used in most economic models. This view implies new challenges and opportunities for policy and managing economic crises. The dynamics of such models inherently involve sudden and sometimes dramatic changes of state. Further, the tools and approaches we use emphasize the analysis of crises rather than of calm periods. In this they respond directly to the calls of Governors Bernanke and Trichet for new approaches to macroeconomic modelling.

Performance modeling and techno-economic analysis of a modular concentrated solar power tower with latent heat storage

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rea, Jonathan E.; Oshman, Christopher J.; Olsen, Michele L.

In this paper, we present performance simulations and techno-economic analysis of a modular dispatchable solar power tower. Using a heliostat field and power block three orders of magnitude smaller than conventional solar power towers, our unique configuration locates thermal storage and a power block directly on a tower receiver. To make the system dispatchable, a valved thermosyphon controls heat flow from a latent heat thermal storage tank to a Stirling engine. The modular design results in minimal balance of system costs and enables high deployment rates with a rapid realization of economies of scale. In this new analysis, we combinemore » performance simulations with techno-economic analysis to evaluate levelized cost of electricity, and find that the system has potential for cost-competitiveness with natural gas peaking plants and alternative dispatchable renewables.« less

A fuzzy cost-benefit function to select economical products for processing in a closed-loop supply chain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pochampally, Kishore K.; Gupta, Surendra M.; Cullinane, Thomas P.

2004-02-01

The cost-benefit analysis of data associated with re-processing of used products often involves the uncertainty feature of cash-flow modeling. The data is not objective because of uncertainties in supply, quality and disassembly times of used products. Hence, decision-makers must rely on "fuzzy" data for analysis. The same parties that are involved in the forward supply chain often carry out the collection and re-processing of used products. It is therefore important that the cost-benefit analysis takes the data of both new products and used products into account. In this paper, a fuzzy cost-benefit function is proposed that is used to perform a multi-criteria economic analysis to select the most economical products to process in a closed-loop supply chain. Application of the function is detailed through an illustrative example.

Recent changes in flood damage in the United States from observations and ACME model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leng, G.; Leung, L. R.

2017-12-01

Despite efforts to mitigate flood hazards in flood-prone areas, survey- and report-based flood databases show that flood damage has increased and emerged as one of the most costly disaster in the United States since the 1990s. Understanding the mechanism driving the changes in flood damage is therefore critical for reducing flood risk. In this study, we first conduct a comprehensive analysis of the changing characteristics of flood damage at local, state and country level. Results show a significant increasing trend in the number of flood hazards, causing economic losses of up to $7 billion per year. The ratio of flood events that caused tangible economical cost to the total flood events has exhibited a non-significant increasing trend before 2007 followed by a significant decrease, indicating a changing vulnerability to floods. Analysis also reveals distinct spatial and temporal patterns in the threshold intensity of flood hazards with tangible economical cost. To understand the mechanism behind the increasing flood damage, we develop a flood damage economic model coupled with the integrated hydrological modeling system of ACME that features a river routing model with an inundation parameterization and a water use and regulation model. The model is evaluated over the country against historical records. Several numerical experiments are then designed to explore the mechanisms behind the recent changes in flood damage from the perspective of flood hazard, exposure and vulnerability, which constitute flood damage. The role of human activities such as reservoir operations and water use in modifying regional floods are also explored using the new tool, with the goal of improving understanding and modeling of vulnerability to flood hazards.

Synthesis of Railroad Design Methods, Track Response Models, and Evaluation Methods for Military Railroads.

DTIC Science & Technology

1985-03-01

economically justified. For main lines, access tracks, heavy traffic tracks, and tracks where the de- sign train speed is greater than 40 mph, TM 5... analysis 35. The beam-on-elastic-foundation model is the key to the AREA design procedure. Kerr in "Problems and Needs in Track Structure Design and... Analysis " (Kerr 1977) presents an outline of the development of this model for analysis of track structures. The fundamental differential equation which

Integrated Assessment of Health-related Economic Impacts of U.S. Air Pollution Policy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saari, R. K.; Rausch, S.; Selin, N. E.

2012-12-01

We examine the environmental impacts, health-related economic benefits, and distributional effects of new US regulations to reduce smog from power plants, namely: the Cross-State Air Pollution Rule. Using integrated assessment methods, linking atmospheric and economic models, we assess the magnitude of economy-wide effects and distributional consequences that are not captured by traditional regulatory impact assessment methods. We study the Cross-State Air Pollution Rule, a modified allowance trading scheme that caps emissions of nitrogen oxides and sulfur dioxide from power plants in the eastern United States and thus reduces ozone and particulate matter pollution. We use results from the regulatory regional air quality model, CAMx (the Comprehensive Air Quality Model with extensions), and epidemiologic studies in BenMAP (Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program), to quantify differences in morbidities and mortalities due to this policy. To assess the economy-wide and distributional consequences of these health impacts, we apply a recently developed economic and policy model, the US Regional Energy and Environmental Policy Model (USREP), a multi-region, multi-sector, multi-household, recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium economic model of the US that provides a detailed representation of the energy sector, and the ability to represent energy and environmental policies. We add to USREP a representation of air pollution impacts, including the estimation and valuation of health outcomes and their effects on health services, welfare, and factor markets. We find that the economic welfare benefits of the Rule are underestimated by traditional methods, which omit economy-wide impacts. We also quantify the distribution of benefits, which have varying effects across US regions, income groups, and pollutants, and we identify factors influencing this distribution, including the geographic variation of pollution and population as well as underlying economic conditions.

A cost-benefit analysis of landfill mining and material recycling in China

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhou, Chuanbin, E-mail: cbzhou@rcees.ac.cn; Gong, Zhe; Hu, Junsong

Highlights: • Assessing the economic feasibility of landfill mining. • We applied a cost-benefit analysis model for landfill mining. • Four material cycling and energy recovery scenarios were designed. • We used net present value to evaluate the cost-benefit efficiency. - Abstract: Landfill mining is an environmentally-friendly technology that combines the concepts of material recycling and sustainable waste management, and it has received a great deal of worldwide attention because of its significant environmental and economic potential in material recycling, energy recovery, land reclamation and pollution prevention. This work applied a cost-benefit analysis model for assessing the economic feasibility, whichmore » is important for promoting landfill mining. The model includes eight indicators of costs and nine indicators of benefits. Four landfill mining scenarios were designed and analyzed based on field data. The economic feasibility of landfill mining was then evaluated by the indicator of net present value (NPV). According to our case study of a typical old landfill mining project in China (Yingchun landfill), rental of excavation and hauling equipment, waste processing and material transportation were the top three costs of landfill mining, accounting for 88.2% of the total cost, and the average cost per unit of stored waste was 12.7 USD ton{sup −1}. The top three benefits of landfill mining were electricity generation by incineration, land reclamation and recycling soil-like materials. The NPV analysis of the four different scenarios indicated that the Yingchun landfill mining project could obtain a net positive benefit varying from 1.92 million USD to 16.63 million USD. However, the NPV was sensitive to the mode of land reuse, the availability of energy recovery facilities and the possibility of obtaining financial support by avoiding post-closure care.« less

Multi-temporal analysis of forest fire risk driven by environmental and socio-economic change in the Republic of Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, S. J.; Lim, C. H.; Kim, G. S.; Lee, W. K.

2017-12-01

Analysis of forest fire risk is important in disaster risk reduction (DRR) since it provides a way to manage forest fires. Climate and socio-economic factors are important in the cause of forest fires, and the role of the socio-economic factors in prevention and preparedness of forest fires is increasing. As most of the forest fires in the Republic of Korea are highly related to human activities, both environmental factors and socio-economic factors were considered into the analysis of forest fire risk. In this study, the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model was used to predict the potential geographical distribution and probability of forest fire occurrence spatially and temporally from 1980s to the 2010s in the Republic of Korea by multi-temporal analysis and analyze the relationship between forest fires and the factors. As a result of the risk analysis, there was an overall increasing trend in forest fire risk from the 1980s to the 2000s, and socio-economic factors were highly correlated with the occurrence of forest fires. The study demonstrates that the socio-economic factors considered as human activities can increase the occurrence of forest fires. The result implies that managing human activities are significant to prevent forest fire occurrence. In addition, timely forest fire prevention and control is necessary as drought index such as Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) also affected forest fires.

Resources and Constraints: Public Education and the Economic Environment in Ontario, 1978-1987.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Foot, David K.

Considering the national and provincial economic environments for the next decade, this paper projects financial resources and constraints likely to be faced by school boards in Ontario over the same period. The study utilizes an econometric model developed by the Institute for Policy Analysis of the University of Toronto. The findings indicate…

Confronting challenges to economic analysis of biological invasions in forests

Treesearch

Thomas P Holmes

2010-01-01

Biological invasions of forests by non-indigenous organisms present a complex, persistent, and largely irreversible threat to forest ecosystems around the globe. Rigorous assessments of the economic impacts of introduced species, at a national scale, are needed to provide credible information to policy makers. It is proposed here that microeconomic models of damage due...

An economic analysis of localized pollution: rendering emissions in a residential setting

Treesearch

J. Michael Bowker; H.F. MacDonald

1991-01-01

The contingent value method is employed to estimate economic damages to households resulting from rendering plant emissions in a small town. Household willingness to accept (WTA) and willingness to pay (WTP) are estimated individually and in aggregate. The influence of household characteristics on WTP and WTA is examined via regression models. The perception of health...

Utilization of eucalyptus for bioelectricity production in brazil via fast pyrolysis: a techno-economic analysis

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

In this study, a process model of a 2000 metric ton per day (MTPD) eucalyptus Tail Gas Reactive Pyrolysis (TGRP) and electricity generation plant was developed and simulated in SimSci Pro/II software for the purpose of evaluating its techno-economic viability in Brazil. Two scenarios were compared b...

Why Competition May Discourage Students from Learning. A Behavioral Economic Analysis.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wang, X. Henry; Yang, Bill Z.

2003-01-01

Combines the concept of self-worth in sociology and educational psychology with economic modeling to analyze the influence of competition on student learning. Finds, for example, that students prone to negative self-worth are motivated not to study hard in courses involving strong competition, thereby adopting a strategy of winning by not losing.…

The Quality vs. the Quantity of Schooling: What Drives Economic Growth?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Breton, Theodore R.

2011-01-01

This paper challenges Hanushek and Woessmann's (2008) contention that the quality and not the quantity of schooling determines a nation's rate of economic growth. I first show that their statistical analysis is flawed. I then show that when a nation's average test scores and average schooling attainment are included in a national income model,…

Anomalies in Economics Enrollment: 1991-1992 to 1995-1996

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lombardi, Waldo; Ramrattan, Lall B.; Szenberg, Michael

2004-01-01

This paper presents data and empirical models to explain the causes of the decline in the enrollment of economics majors during the 1991-1992 to 1995-1996 academic years. It first discusses the theoretical bases for a qualitative analysis of this type. It then discusses a sample survey methodology used to obtain cross-sectional information from…

Reassessing the Economic Value of Advanced Level Mathematics

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Adkins, Michael; Noyes, Andrew

2016-01-01

In the late 1990s, the economic return to Advanced level (A-level) mathematics was examined. The analysis was based upon a series of log-linear models of earnings in the 1958 National Child Development Survey (NCDS) and the National Survey of 1980 Graduates and Diplomates. The core finding was that A-level mathematics had a unique earnings premium…

Analysis of the economic impact of the national unified carbon trading market mechanism Hebei province, for example

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Yuxing

2018-05-01

In this paper, a grey prediction model is used to predict the carbon emission in Hebei province, and the impact analysis model based on TermCo2 is established. At the same time, we read a lot about CGE and study on how to build the scene, the selection of key parameters, and sensitivity analysis of application scenarios do industry for reference.

Barriers to implementation of workplace health interventions: an economic perspective.

PubMed

Cherniack, Martin; Lahiri, Supriya

2010-09-01

To identify insurance related, structural, and workplace cultural barriers to the implementation of effective preventive and upstream clinical interventions in the working age adult population. Analysis of avoided costs from perspective of health economics theory and from empiric observations from large studies; presentation of data from our own cost-plus model on integrating health promotion and ergonomics. We identify key avoided costs issues as a misalignment of interests between employers, insurers, service institutions, and government. Conceptual limitations of neoclassical economics are attributable to work culture and supply-driven nature of health care. Effective valuation of avoided costs is a necessary condition for redirecting allocations and incentives. Key content for valuation models is discussed.

The interrelationship of households economics activities of upland rice farmers in rain-fed farming in Ponjong Sub-district, Gunungkidul District, Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rini, W. D. E.; Harisudin, M.; Supriyadi; Rahayu, E. S.

2018-03-01

Gunungkidul is one of the regencies at Yogyakarta, Indonesia which is 90% occupied by dry land, and thus vulnerable to climate change impact. Since dryland relies on water only from rain to meet crop water requirement, part of land management is rainfed. This condition encourages farmers to make the right decision regarding their additional income to meet household needs. Under the limited land resources, farmers decided to plant upland rice once or twice a year. The aim of the study is to analyze the interrelationship of households economics activities of upland rice farmers in rain-fed farming based on production, labor allocation, and consumption. The research method is descriptive analysis, with research site Ponjong sub-district, determined by the purposive method. Sampling method using proportional random sampling. Economics model was determined by using simultaneous equation model, with 2 SLS estimation method. The results showed that the household economics model of upland rice farmers in the rainfed land can be explained by using farmers household model and there is a linkage between production, labor allocation, and consumption.

A hydrologic-economic modeling approach for analysis of urban water supply dynamics in Chennai, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Srinivasan, Veena; Gorelick, Steven M.; Goulder, Lawrence

2010-07-01

In this paper, we discuss a challenging water resources problem in a developing world city, Chennai, India. The goal is to reconstruct past system behavior and diagnose the causes of a major water crisis. In order to do this, we develop a hydrologic-engineering-economic model to address the complexity of urban water supply arising from consumers' dependence on multiple interconnected sources of water. We integrate different components of the urban water system: water flowing into the reservoir system; diversion and distribution by the public water utility; groundwater flow in the aquifer beneath the city; supply, demand, and prices in the informal tanker-truck-based water market; and consumer behavior. Both the economic and physical impacts of consumers' dependence on multiple sources of water are quantified. The model is calibrated over the period 2002-2006 using a range of hydrologic and socio-economic data. The model's results highlight the inadequacy of the reservoir system and the buffering role played by the urban aquifer and consumers' coping investments during multiyear droughts.

The economics of biobanking and pharmacogenetics databasing: the case of an adaptive platform on breast cancer.

PubMed

Huttin, Christine C; Liebman, Michael N

2013-01-01

This paper aims to discuss the economics of biobanking. Among the critical issues in evaluating potential ROI for creation of a bio-bank are: scale (e.g. local, national, international), centralized versus virtual/distributed, degree of sample annotation/QC procedures, targeted end-users and uses, types of samples, potential characterization, both of samples and annotations. The paper presents a review on cost models for an economic analysis of biobanking for different steps: data collection (e.g. biospecimens in different types of sites, storage, transport and distribution, information management for the different types of information (e.g. biological information such as cell, gene, and protein)). It also provides additional concepts to process biospecimens from laboratory to clinical practice and will help to identify how changing paradigms in translational medicine affect the economic modeling.

A multicriteria decision analysis model and risk assessment framework for carbon capture and storage.

PubMed

Humphries Choptiany, John Michael; Pelot, Ronald

2014-09-01

Multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) has been applied to various energy problems to incorporate a variety of qualitative and quantitative criteria, usually spanning environmental, social, engineering, and economic fields. MCDA and associated methods such as life-cycle assessments and cost-benefit analysis can also include risk analysis to address uncertainties in criteria estimates. One technology now being assessed to help mitigate climate change is carbon capture and storage (CCS). CCS is a new process that captures CO2 emissions from fossil-fueled power plants and injects them into geological reservoirs for storage. It presents a unique challenge to decisionmakers (DMs) due to its technical complexity, range of environmental, social, and economic impacts, variety of stakeholders, and long time spans. The authors have developed a risk assessment model using a MCDA approach for CCS decisions such as selecting between CO2 storage locations and choosing among different mitigation actions for reducing risks. The model includes uncertainty measures for several factors, utility curve representations of all variables, Monte Carlo simulation, and sensitivity analysis. This article uses a CCS scenario example to demonstrate the development and application of the model based on data derived from published articles and publicly available sources. The model allows high-level DMs to better understand project risks and the tradeoffs inherent in modern, complex energy decisions. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

Invitation to Consumer Behavior Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Foxall, Gordon R.

2010-01-01

This article presents an introduction to consumer behavior analysis by describing the Behavioral Perspective Model of consumer choice and showing how research has, first, confirmed this framework and, second, opened up behavior analysis and behavioral economics to the study of consumer behavior in natural settings. It concludes with a discussion…

Integrated supply chain design for commodity chemicals production via woody biomass fast pyrolysis and upgrading.

PubMed

Zhang, Yanan; Hu, Guiping; Brown, Robert C

2014-04-01

This study investigates the optimal supply chain design for commodity chemicals (BTX, etc.) production via woody biomass fast pyrolysis and hydroprocessing pathway. The locations and capacities of distributed preprocessing hubs and integrated biorefinery facilities are optimized with a mixed integer linear programming model. In this integrated supply chain system, decisions on the biomass chipping methods (roadside chipping vs. facility chipping) are also explored. The economic objective of the supply chain model is to maximize the profit for a 20-year chemicals production system. In addition to the economic objective, the model also incorporates an environmental objective of minimizing life cycle greenhouse gas emissions, analyzing the trade-off between the economic and environmental considerations. The capital cost, operating cost, and revenues for the biorefinery facilities are based on techno-economic analysis, and the proposed approach is illustrated through a case study of Minnesota, with Minneapolis-St. Paul serving as the chemicals distribution hub. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Electric Power Consumption Coefficients for U.S. Industries: Regional Estimation and Analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Boero, Riccardo

Economic activity relies on electric power provided by electrical generation, transmission, and distribution systems. This paper presents a method developed at Los Alamos National Laboratory to estimate electric power consumption by different industries in the United States. Results are validated through comparisons with existing literature and benchmarking data sources. We also discuss the limitations and applications of the presented method, such as estimating indirect electric power consumption and assessing the economic impact of power outages based on input-output economic models.

The Importance of Considering the Temporal Distribution of Climate Variables for Ecological-Economic Modeling to Calculate the Consequences of Climate Change for Agriculture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Plegnière, Sabrina; Casper, Markus; Hecker, Benjamin; Müller-Fürstenberger, Georg

2014-05-01

The basis of many models to calculate and assess climate change and its consequences are annual means of temperature and precipitation. This method leads to many uncertainties especially at the regional or local level: the results are not realistic or too coarse. Particularly in agriculture, single events and the distribution of precipitation and temperature during the growing season have enormous influences on plant growth. Therefore, the temporal distribution of climate variables should not be ignored. To reach this goal, a high-resolution ecological-economic model was developed which combines a complex plant growth model (STICS) and an economic model. In this context, input data of the plant growth model are daily climate values for a specific climate station calculated by the statistical climate model (WETTREG). The economic model is deduced from the results of the plant growth model STICS. The chosen plant is corn because corn is often cultivated and used in many different ways. First of all, a sensitivity analysis showed that the plant growth model STICS is suitable to calculate the influences of different cultivation methods and climate on plant growth or yield as well as on soil fertility, e.g. by nitrate leaching, in a realistic way. Additional simulations helped to assess a production function that is the key element of the economic model. Thereby the problems when using mean values of temperature and precipitation in order to compute a production function by linear regression are pointed out. Several examples show why a linear regression to assess a production function based on mean climate values or smoothed natural distribution leads to imperfect results and why it is not possible to deduce a unique climate factor in the production function. One solution for this problem is the additional consideration of stress indices that show the impairment of plants by water or nitrate shortage. Thus, the resulting model takes into account not only the ecological factors (e.g. the plant growth) or the economical factors as a simple monetary calculation, but also their mutual influences. Finally, the ecological-economic model enables us to make a risk assessment or evaluate adaptation strategies.

Placental growth factor (alone or in combination with soluble fms-like tyrosine kinase 1) as an aid to the assessment of women with suspected pre-eclampsia: systematic review and economic analysis.

PubMed

Frampton, Geoff K; Jones, Jeremy; Rose, Micah; Payne, Liz

2016-11-01

Pre-eclampsia (PE) prediction based on blood pressure, presence of protein in the urine, symptoms and laboratory test abnormalities can result in false-positive diagnoses. This may lead to unnecessary antenatal admissions and preterm delivery. Blood tests that measure placental growth factor (PlGF) or the ratio of soluble fms-like tyrosine kinase 1 (sFlt-1) to PlGF could aid prediction of PE if either were added to routine clinical assessment or used as a replacement for proteinuria testing. To evaluate the diagnostic accuracy and cost-effectiveness of PlGF-based tests for patients referred to secondary care with suspected PE in weeks 20-37 of pregnancy. Systematic reviews and an economic analysis. Bibliographic databases including MEDLINE, EMBASE, Web of Science and The Cochrane Library and Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects were searched up to July 2015 for English-language references. Conferences, websites, systematic reviews and confidential company submissions were also accessed. Systematic reviews of test accuracy and economic studies were conducted to inform an economic analysis. Test accuracy studies were required to include women with suspected PE and report quantitatively the accuracy of PlGF-based tests; their risk of bias was assessed using the Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies (QUADAS) criteria. The economic studies review had broad eligibility criteria to capture any types of economic analysis; critical appraisal employed standard checklists consistent with National Institute for Health and Care Excellence criteria. Study selection, critical appraisal and data extraction in both reviews were performed by two reviewers. An independent economic analysis was conducted based on a decision tree model, using the best evidence available. The model evaluates costs (2014, GBP) from a NHS and Personal Social Services perspective. Given the short analysis time horizon, no discounting was undertaken. Four studies were included in the systematic review of test accuracy: two on Alere's Triage ® PlGF test (Alere, Inc., San Diego, CA, USA) for predicting PE requiring delivery within a specified time and two on Roche Diagnostics' Elecsys ® sFlt-1 to PlGF ratio test (Roche Diagnostics GmbH, Mannheim, Germany) for predicting PE within a specified time. Three studies were included in the systematic review of economic studies, and two confidential company economic analyses were assessed separately. Study heterogeneity precluded meta-analyses of test accuracy or cost-analysis outcomes, so narrative syntheses were conducted to inform the independent economic model. The model predicts that, when supplementing routine clinical assessment for rule-out and rule-in of PE, the two tests would be cost-saving in weeks 20-35 of gestation, and marginally cost-saving in weeks 35-37, but with minuscule impact on quality of life. Length of neonatal intensive care unit stay was the most influential parameter in sensitivity analyses. All other sensitivity analyses had negligible effects on results. No head-to-head comparisons of the tests were identified. No studies investigated accuracy of PlGF-based tests when used as a replacement for proteinuria testing. Test accuracy studies were found to be at high risk of clinical review bias. The Triage and Elecsys tests would save money if added to routine clinical assessment for PE. The magnitude of savings is uncertain, but the tests remain cost-saving under worst-case assumptions. Further research is required to clarify how the test results would be interpreted and applied in clinical practice. This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42015017670. The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

[Model-based biofuels system analysis: a review].

PubMed

Chang, Shiyan; Zhang, Xiliang; Zhao, Lili; Ou, Xunmin

2011-03-01

Model-based system analysis is an important tool for evaluating the potential and impacts of biofuels, and for drafting biofuels technology roadmaps and targets. The broad reach of the biofuels supply chain requires that biofuels system analyses span a range of disciplines, including agriculture/forestry, energy, economics, and the environment. Here we reviewed various models developed for or applied to modeling biofuels, and presented a critical analysis of Agriculture/Forestry System Models, Energy System Models, Integrated Assessment Models, Micro-level Cost, Energy and Emission Calculation Models, and Specific Macro-level Biofuel Models. We focused on the models' strengths, weaknesses, and applicability, facilitating the selection of a suitable type of model for specific issues. Such an analysis was a prerequisite for future biofuels system modeling, and represented a valuable resource for researchers and policy makers.

The NLS-Based Nonlinear Grey Multivariate Model for Forecasting Pollutant Emissions in China.

PubMed

Pei, Ling-Ling; Li, Qin; Wang, Zheng-Xin

2018-03-08

The relationship between pollutant discharge and economic growth has been a major research focus in environmental economics. To accurately estimate the nonlinear change law of China's pollutant discharge with economic growth, this study establishes a transformed nonlinear grey multivariable (TNGM (1, N )) model based on the nonlinear least square (NLS) method. The Gauss-Seidel iterative algorithm was used to solve the parameters of the TNGM (1, N ) model based on the NLS basic principle. This algorithm improves the precision of the model by continuous iteration and constantly approximating the optimal regression coefficient of the nonlinear model. In our empirical analysis, the traditional grey multivariate model GM (1, N ) and the NLS-based TNGM (1, N ) models were respectively adopted to forecast and analyze the relationship among wastewater discharge per capita (WDPC), and per capita emissions of SO₂ and dust, alongside GDP per capita in China during the period 1996-2015. Results indicated that the NLS algorithm is able to effectively help the grey multivariable model identify the nonlinear relationship between pollutant discharge and economic growth. The results show that the NLS-based TNGM (1, N ) model presents greater precision when forecasting WDPC, SO₂ emissions and dust emissions per capita, compared to the traditional GM (1, N ) model; WDPC indicates a growing tendency aligned with the growth of GDP, while the per capita emissions of SO₂ and dust reduce accordingly.

Burden of stroke in Italy: an economic model highlights savings arising from reduced disability following thrombolysis.

PubMed

Chiumente, M; Gianino, M M; Minniti, D; Mattei, T J; Spass, B; Kamal, K M; Zimmerman, D E; Muca, A; Luda, E

2015-08-01

The consequences of stroke must be assessed not only in terms of incidence and mortality rates, but also in terms of disability, which may persist long after the acute phase. Thrombolysis, if timely administered, can effectively reduce post-stroke disability. The economic model presented herein aims to evaluate, in eligible patients, the effects of alteplase on post-stroke disability and related costs over three-years. The economic analysis was developed on the basis of four key components: clinical outcomes from international trials, economic consequences extracted from cost of illness studies, regulatory data from national and international agencies, and national epidemiological data. A population-level model estimated the difference in disability costs between patients treated with standard care versus those receiving thrombolytic therapy within 4×5 h of acute ischemic stroke. The analysis covered 36 months from discharge. Reduced costs related to post-stroke disability were observed in treated patients compared with those receiving standard care (control). The overall savings were €2330×15 per average patient: €1445×81 during the first 18 months, €362×25 between 18 and 24 months, and €522×09 in the 24-36 months period. The overall savings on 3174 Italian treated patients in 2013 were €7 395 907 over three-years. Our study reveals that performing thrombolytic therapy in eligible patients improves economic outcomes compared with patients receiving standard care. This model is useful for decision makers, both within and outside of the Italian national context, as a tool to assess the cost-effectiveness of thrombolysis in both short- and long-term period. © 2015 World Stroke Organization.

Challenges Associated with Estimating Utility in Wet Age-Related Macular Degeneration: A Novel Regression Analysis to Capture the Bilateral Nature of the Disease.

PubMed

Hodgson, Robert; Reason, Timothy; Trueman, David; Wickstead, Rose; Kusel, Jeanette; Jasilek, Adam; Claxton, Lindsay; Taylor, Matthew; Pulikottil-Jacob, Ruth

2017-10-01

The estimation of utility values for the economic evaluation of therapies for wet age-related macular degeneration (AMD) is a particular challenge. Previous economic models in wet AMD have been criticized for failing to capture the bilateral nature of wet AMD by modelling visual acuity (VA) and utility values associated with the better-seeing eye only. Here we present a de novo regression analysis using generalized estimating equations (GEE) applied to a previous dataset of time trade-off (TTO)-derived utility values from a sample of the UK population that wore contact lenses to simulate visual deterioration in wet AMD. This analysis allows utility values to be estimated as a function of VA in both the better-seeing eye (BSE) and worse-seeing eye (WSE). VAs in both the BSE and WSE were found to be statistically significant (p < 0.05) when regressed separately. When included without an interaction term, only the coefficient for VA in the BSE was significant (p = 0.04), but when an interaction term between VA in the BSE and WSE was included, only the constant term (mean TTO utility value) was significant, potentially a result of the collinearity between the VA of the two eyes. The lack of both formal model fit statistics from the GEE approach and theoretical knowledge to support the superiority of one model over another make it difficult to select the best model. Limitations of this analysis arise from the potential influence of collinearity between the VA of both eyes, and the use of contact lenses to reflect VA states to obtain the original dataset. Whilst further research is required to elicit more accurate utility values for wet AMD, this novel regression analysis provides a possible source of utility values to allow future economic models to capture the quality of life impact of changes in VA in both eyes. Novartis Pharmaceuticals UK Limited.

Assessing groundwater policy with coupled economic-groundwater hydrologic modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mulligan, Kevin B.; Brown, Casey; Yang, Yi-Chen E.; Ahlfeld, David P.

2014-03-01

This study explores groundwater management policies and the effect of modeling assumptions on the projected performance of those policies. The study compares an optimal economic allocation for groundwater use subject to streamflow constraints, achieved by a central planner with perfect foresight, with a uniform tax on groundwater use and a uniform quota on groundwater use. The policies are compared with two modeling approaches, the Optimal Control Model (OCM) and the Multi-Agent System Simulation (MASS). The economic decision models are coupled with a physically based representation of the aquifer using a calibrated MODFLOW groundwater model. The results indicate that uniformly applied policies perform poorly when simulated with more realistic, heterogeneous, myopic, and self-interested agents. In particular, the effects of the physical heterogeneity of the basin and the agents undercut the perceived benefits of policy instruments assessed with simple, single-cell groundwater modeling. This study demonstrates the results of coupling realistic hydrogeology and human behavior models to assess groundwater management policies. The Republican River Basin, which overlies a portion of the Ogallala aquifer in the High Plains of the United States, is used as a case study for this analysis.

Reliability models: the influence of model specification in generation expansion planning

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stremel, J.P.

1982-10-01

This paper is a critical evaluation of reliability methods used for generation expansion planning. It is shown that the methods for treating uncertainty are critical for determining the relative reliability value of expansion alternatives. It is also shown that the specification of the reliability model will not favor all expansion options equally. Consequently, the model is biased. In addition, reliability models should be augmented with an economic value of reliability (such as the cost of emergency procedures or energy not served). Generation expansion evaluations which ignore the economic value of excess reliability can be shown to be inconsistent. The conclusionsmore » are that, in general, a reliability model simplifies generation expansion planning evaluations. However, for a thorough analysis, the expansion options should be reviewed for candidates which may be unduly rejected because of the bias of the reliability model. And this implies that for a consistent formulation in an optimization framework, the reliability model should be replaced with a full economic optimization which includes the costs of emergency procedures and interruptions in the objective function.« less

An Approach for Economic Analysis of Intermodal Transportation

PubMed Central

Sahin, Bahri; Ust, Yasin; Guneri, Ali Fuat; Gulsun, Bahadir; Turan, Eda

2014-01-01

A different intermodal transportation model based on cost analysis considering technical, economical, and operational parameters is presented. The model consists of such intermodal modes as sea-road, sea-railway, road-railway, and multimode of sea-road-railway. A case study of cargo transportation has been carried out by using the suggested model. Then, the single road transportation mode has been compared to intermodal modes in terms of transportation costs. This comparison takes into account the external costs of intermodal transportation. The research reveals that, in the short distance transportation, single transportation modes always tend to be advantageous. As the transportation distance gets longer, intermodal transportation advantages begin to be effective on the costs. In addition, the proposed method in this study leads to determining the fleet size and capacity for transportation and the appropriate transportation mode. PMID:25152919

An approach for economic analysis of intermodal transportation.

PubMed

Sahin, Bahri; Yilmaz, Huseyin; Ust, Yasin; Guneri, Ali Fuat; Gulsun, Bahadir; Turan, Eda

2014-01-01

A different intermodal transportation model based on cost analysis considering technical, economical, and operational parameters is presented. The model consists of such intermodal modes as sea-road, sea-railway, road-railway, and multimode of sea-road-railway. A case study of cargo transportation has been carried out by using the suggested model. Then, the single road transportation mode has been compared to intermodal modes in terms of transportation costs. This comparison takes into account the external costs of intermodal transportation. The research reveals that, in the short distance transportation, single transportation modes always tend to be advantageous. As the transportation distance gets longer, intermodal transportation advantages begin to be effective on the costs. In addition, the proposed method in this study leads to determining the fleet size and capacity for transportation and the appropriate transportation mode.

Developing guidance for budget impact analysis.

PubMed

Trueman, P; Drummond, M; Hutton, J

2001-01-01

The role of economic evaluation in the efficient allocation of healthcare resources has been widely debated. Whilst economic evidence is undoubtedly useful to purchasers, it does not address the issue of affordability which is an increasing concern. Healthcare purchasers are concerned not just with maximising efficiency but also with the more simplistic goal of remaining within their annual budgets. These two objectives are not necessarily consistent. This paper examines the issue of affordability, the relationship between affordability and efficiency and builds the case for why there is a growing need for budget impact models to complement economic evaluation. Guidance currently available for such models is also examined and it is concluded that this guidance is currently insufficient. Some of these insufficiencies are addressed and some thoughts on what constitutes best practice in budget impact modelling are suggested. These suggestions include consideration of transparency, clarity of perspective, reliability of data sources, the relationship between intermediate and final end-points and rates of adoption of new therapies. They also include the impact of intervention by population subgroups or indications, reporting of results, probability of re-deploying resources, the time horizon, exploring uncertainty and sensitivity analysis, and decision-maker access to the model. Due to the nature of budget impact models, the paper does not deliver stringent methodological guidance on modelling. The intention was to provide some suggestions of best practice in addition to some foundations upon which future research can build.

Protocol for the economic evaluation of a complex intervention to improve the mental health of maltreated infants and children in foster care in the UK (The BeST? services trial).

PubMed

Deidda, Manuela; Boyd, Kathleen Anne; Minnis, Helen; Donaldson, Julia; Brown, Kevin; Boyer, Nicole R S; McIntosh, Emma

2018-03-14

Children who have experienced abuse and neglect are at increased risk of mental and physical health problems throughout life. This places an enormous burden on individuals, families and society in terms of health services, education, social care and judiciary sectors. Evidence suggests that early intervention can mitigate the negative consequences of child maltreatment, exerting long-term positive effects on the health of maltreated children entering foster care. However, evidence on cost-effectiveness of such complex interventions is limited. This protocol describes the first economic evaluation of its kind in the UK. An economic evaluation alongside the Best Services Trial (BeST?) has been prospectively designed to identify, measure and value key resource and outcome impacts arising from the New Orleans intervention model (NIM) (an infant mental health service) compared with case management (CM) (enhanced social work services as usual). A within-trial economic evaluation and long-term model from a National Health Service/Personal Social Service and a broader societal perspective will be undertaken alongside the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR)-Public Health Research Unit (PHRU)-funded randomised multicentre BeST?. BeST? aims to evaluate NIM compared with CM for maltreated children entering foster care in a UK context. Collection of Paediatric Quality of Life Inventory (PedsQL) and the recent mapping of PedsQL to EuroQol-5-Dimensions (EQ-5D) will facilitate the estimation of quality-adjusted life years specific to the infant population for a cost-utility analysis. Other effectiveness outcomes will be incorporated into a cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) and cost-consequences analysis (CCA). A long-term economic model and multiple economic evaluation frameworks will provide decision-makers with a comprehensive, multiperspective guide regarding cost-effectiveness of NIM. The long-term population health economic model will be developed to synthesise trial data with routine linked data and key government sector parameters informed by literature. Methods guidance for population health economic evaluation will be adopted (lifetime horizon, 1.5% discount rate for costs and benefits, CCA framework, multisector perspective). Ethics approval was obtained by the West of Scotland Ethics Committee. Results of the main trial and economic evaluation will be submitted for publication in a peer-reviewed journal as well as published in the peer-reviewed NIHR journals library (Public Health Research Programme). NCT02653716; Pre-results. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Systematic literature review of methodologies and data sources of existing economic models across the full spectrum of Alzheimer's disease and dementia from apparently healthy through disease progression to end of life care: a systematic review protocol.

PubMed

Karagiannidou, Maria; Wittenberg, Raphael; Landeiro, Filipa Isabel Trigo; Park, A-La; Fry, Andra; Knapp, Martin; Gray, Alastair M; Tockhorn-Heidenreich, Antje; Castro Sanchez, Amparo Yovanna; Ghinai, Isaac; Handels, Ron; Lecomte, Pascal; Wolstenholme, Jane

2018-06-08

Dementia is one of the greatest health challenges the world will face in the coming decades, as it is one of the principal causes of disability and dependency among older people. Economic modelling is used widely across many health conditions to inform decisions on health and social care policy and practice. The aim of this literature review is to systematically identify, review and critically evaluate existing health economics models in dementia. We included the full spectrum of dementia, including Alzheimer's disease (AD), from preclinical stages through to severe dementia and end of life. This review forms part of the Real world Outcomes across the Alzheimer's Disease spectrum for better care: multimodal data Access Platform (ROADMAP) project. Electronic searches were conducted in Medical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System Online, Excerpta Medica dataBASE, Economic Literature Database, NHS Economic Evaluation Database, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, Cost-Effectiveness Analysis Registry, Research Papers in Economics, Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effectiveness, Science Citation Index, Turning Research Into Practice and Open Grey for studies published between January 2000 and the end of June 2017. Two reviewers will independently assess each study against predefined eligibility criteria. A third reviewer will resolve any disagreement. Data will be extracted using a predefined data extraction form following best practice. Study quality will be assessed using the Phillips checklist for decision analytic modelling. A narrative synthesis will be used. The results will be made available in a scientific peer-reviewed journal paper, will be presented at relevant conferences and will also be made available through the ROADMAP project. CRD42017073874. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Two ways to solve, using Lie group analysis, the fundamental valuation equation in the double-square-root model of the term structure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sinkala, W.

2011-01-01

Two approaches based on Lie group analysis are employed to obtain the closed-form solution of a partial differential equation derived by Francis A. Longstaff [J Financial Econom 1989;23:195-224] for the price of a discount bond in the double-square-root model of the term structure.

Replicating Health Economic Models: Firm Foundations or a House of Cards?

PubMed

Bermejo, Inigo; Tappenden, Paul; Youn, Ji-Hee

2017-11-01

Health economic evaluation is a framework for the comparative analysis of the incremental health gains and costs associated with competing decision alternatives. The process of developing health economic models is usually complex, financially expensive and time-consuming. For these reasons, model development is sometimes based on previous model-based analyses; this endeavour is usually referred to as model replication. Such model replication activity may involve the comprehensive reproduction of an existing model or 'borrowing' all or part of a previously developed model structure. Generally speaking, the replication of an existing model may require substantially less effort than developing a new de novo model by bypassing, or undertaking in only a perfunctory manner, certain aspects of model development such as the development of a complete conceptual model and/or comprehensive literature searching for model parameters. A further motivation for model replication may be to draw on the credibility or prestige of previous analyses that have been published and/or used to inform decision making. The acceptability and appropriateness of replicating models depends on the decision-making context: there exists a trade-off between the 'savings' afforded by model replication and the potential 'costs' associated with reduced model credibility due to the omission of certain stages of model development. This paper provides an overview of the different levels of, and motivations for, replicating health economic models, and discusses the advantages, disadvantages and caveats associated with this type of modelling activity. Irrespective of whether replicated models should be considered appropriate or not, complete replicability is generally accepted as a desirable property of health economic models, as reflected in critical appraisal checklists and good practice guidelines. To this end, the feasibility of comprehensive model replication is explored empirically across a small number of recent case studies. Recommendations are put forward for improving reporting standards to enhance comprehensive model replicability.

Personalized medicine: the absence of 'model-changing' financial incentives.

PubMed

Keeling, Peter

2007-02-01

This perspective biases on the side that personalized medicine can contribute to a more efficient collective model; however, the hard economics need and deserve significantly more critical analysis and new data input than they are currently being given, to determine their role, or not, in driving change. Put simply, as with the birth of all new and promising developments in healthcare, myth, hope and trend-spotting are driving this market forward, rather than any hard evidence of a sustainable commercial business model for all stakeholders. While there are clear economic benefits to aspects of delivery along the way to personalized care, there may in fact be no compelling economic drivers for radical change for payers and the pharmaceutical industry. The best they can hope to achieve is that the balance sheet is, just that, in balance.

New integrated information system for pusan national university hospital.

PubMed

Kim, Hyung Hoi; Cho, Kyung-Won; Kim, Hye Sook; Kim, Ju-Sim; Kim, Jung Hyun; Han, Sang Pil; Park, Chun Bok; Kim, Seok; Chae, Young Moon

2011-03-01

This study presents the information system for Pusan National University Hospital (PNUH), evaluates its performance qualitatively, and conducts economic analysis. Information system for PNUH was designed by component-based development and developed by internet technologies. Order Communication System, Electronic Medical Record, and Clinical Decision Support System were newly developed. The performance of the hospital information system was qualitatively evaluated based on the performance reference model in order to identify problem areas for the old system. The Information Economics approach was used to analyze the economic feasibility of hospital information system in order to account for the intangible benefits. Average performance scores were 3.16 for input layer, 3.35 for process layer, and 3.57 for business layer. In addition, the cumulative benefit to cost ratio was 0.50 in 2011, 1.73 in 2012, 1.76 in 2013, 1.71 in 2014, and 1.71 in 2015. The B/C ratios steadily increase as value items are added. While overall performance scores were reasonably high, doctors were less satisfied with the system, perhaps due to the weak clinical function in the systems. The information economics analysis demonstrated the economic profitability of the information systems if all intangible benefits were included. The second qualitative evaluation survey and economic analysis were proposed to evaluate the changes in performance of the new system.

The effects of carbon tax on the Oregon economy and state greenhouse gas emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rice, A. L.; Butenhoff, C. L.; Renfro, J.; Liu, J.

2014-12-01

Of the numerous mechanisms to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions on statewide, regional or national scales in the United States, a tax on carbon is perhaps one of the simplest. By taxing emissions directly, the costs of carbon emissions are incorporated into decision-making processes of market actors including consumers, energy suppliers and policy makers. A carbon tax also internalizes the social costs of climate impacts. In structuring carbon tax revenues to reduce corporate and personal income taxes, the negative incentives created by distortionary income taxes can be reduced or offset entirely. In 2008, the first carbon tax in North America across economic sectors was implemented in British Columbia through such a revenue-neutral program. In this work, we investigate the economic and environmental effects of a carbon tax in the state of Oregon with the goal of informing the state legislature, stakeholders and the public. The study investigates 70 different economic sectors in the Oregon economy and six geographical regions of the state. The economic model is built upon the Carbon Tax Analysis Model (C-TAM) to provide price changes in fuel with data from: the Energy Information Agency National Energy Modeling System (EIA-NEMS) Pacific Region Module which provides Oregon-specific energy forecasts; and fuel price increases imposed at different carbon fees based on fuel-specific carbon content and current and projected regional-specific electricity fuel mixes. CTAM output is incorporated into the Regional Economic Model (REMI) which is used to dynamically forecast economic impacts by region and industry sector including: economic output, employment, wages, fiscal effects and equity. Based on changes in economic output and fuel demand, we further project changes in greenhouse gas emissions resulting from economic activity and calculate revenue generated through a carbon fee. Here, we present results of this modeling effort under different scenarios of carbon fee and avenues for revenue repatriation.

The Utility of Behavioral Economics in Expanding the Free-Feed Model of Obesity

PubMed Central

Rasmussen, Erin B.; Robertson, Stephen H.; Rodriguez, Luis R.

2016-01-01

Animal models of obesity are numerous and diverse in terms of identifying specific neural and peripheral mechanisms related to obesity; however, they are limited when it comes to behavior. The standard behavioral measure of food intake in most animal models occurs in a free-feeding environment. While easy and cost-effective for the researcher, the free-feeding environment omits some of the most important features of obesity-related food consumption—namely, properties of food availability, such as effort and delay to obtaining food. Behavior economics expands behavioral measures of obesity animal models by identifying such behavioral mechanisms. First, economic demand analysis allows researchers to understand the role of effort in food procurement, and how physiological and neural mechanisms are related. Second, studies on delay discounting contribute to a growing literature that shows that sensitivity to delayed food- and food-related outcomes is likely a fundamental process of obesity. Together, these data expand the animal model in a manner that better characterizes how environmental factors influence food consumption. PMID:26923097

A risk explicit interval linear programming model for uncertainty-based environmental economic optimization in the Lake Fuxian watershed, China.

PubMed

Zhang, Xiaoling; Huang, Kai; Zou, Rui; Liu, Yong; Yu, Yajuan

2013-01-01

The conflict of water environment protection and economic development has brought severe water pollution and restricted the sustainable development in the watershed. A risk explicit interval linear programming (REILP) method was used to solve integrated watershed environmental-economic optimization problem. Interval linear programming (ILP) and REILP models for uncertainty-based environmental economic optimization at the watershed scale were developed for the management of Lake Fuxian watershed, China. Scenario analysis was introduced into model solution process to ensure the practicality and operability of optimization schemes. Decision makers' preferences for risk levels can be expressed through inputting different discrete aspiration level values into the REILP model in three periods under two scenarios. Through balancing the optimal system returns and corresponding system risks, decision makers can develop an efficient industrial restructuring scheme based directly on the window of "low risk and high return efficiency" in the trade-off curve. The representative schemes at the turning points of two scenarios were interpreted and compared to identify a preferable planning alternative, which has the relatively low risks and nearly maximum benefits. This study provides new insights and proposes a tool, which was REILP, for decision makers to develop an effectively environmental economic optimization scheme in integrated watershed management.

A Risk Explicit Interval Linear Programming Model for Uncertainty-Based Environmental Economic Optimization in the Lake Fuxian Watershed, China

PubMed Central

Zou, Rui; Liu, Yong; Yu, Yajuan

2013-01-01

The conflict of water environment protection and economic development has brought severe water pollution and restricted the sustainable development in the watershed. A risk explicit interval linear programming (REILP) method was used to solve integrated watershed environmental-economic optimization problem. Interval linear programming (ILP) and REILP models for uncertainty-based environmental economic optimization at the watershed scale were developed for the management of Lake Fuxian watershed, China. Scenario analysis was introduced into model solution process to ensure the practicality and operability of optimization schemes. Decision makers' preferences for risk levels can be expressed through inputting different discrete aspiration level values into the REILP model in three periods under two scenarios. Through balancing the optimal system returns and corresponding system risks, decision makers can develop an efficient industrial restructuring scheme based directly on the window of “low risk and high return efficiency” in the trade-off curve. The representative schemes at the turning points of two scenarios were interpreted and compared to identify a preferable planning alternative, which has the relatively low risks and nearly maximum benefits. This study provides new insights and proposes a tool, which was REILP, for decision makers to develop an effectively environmental economic optimization scheme in integrated watershed management. PMID:24191144

Ecological economics of soil erosion: a review of the current state of knowledge.

PubMed

Adhikari, Bhim; Nadella, Karthik

2011-02-01

The economics of land degradation has received relatively little attention until recent years. Although a number of studies have undertaken valuation of ecosystem services ranging from the global to the micro level, and quite a few studies have attempted to quantify the costs of soil erosion, studies that address the full costs of land degradation are still scarce. In this review, we attempt to analyze different land resource modeling and valuation techniques applied in earlier research and the type of data used in these analyses, and to assess their utility for different forms of land resource and management appraisal. We also report on the strengths and weaknesses of different valuation techniques used in studies on the economics of soil erosion, and the relevance of these valuation techniques. We make a case for the need for more appropriate models that can make the analysis more robust in estimating the economic costs of land degradation while recognizing the spatial heterogeneity in biophysical and economic conditions. © 2011 New York Academy of Sciences.

His and Hers: Economic Factors and Relationship Quality in Germany

PubMed Central

Hardie, Jessica Halliday; Geist, Claudia; Lucas, Amy

2014-01-01

Research has linked economic factors to relationship quality in the United States, primarily using cross-sectional data. In the current study, 2 waves of the Panel Analysis of Intimate Relationships and Family Dynamics data (n = 2,937) were used to test the gendered association between economic factors and relationship satisfaction among young German couples. In contrast to U.S.-based studies, the findings showed striking gender differences in the association between economic factors and relationship satisfaction for Germans. In cross-sectional models, women’s relationship satisfaction was positively associated with receiving government economic support, and men’s satisfaction was positively associated with poverty status and negatively associated with being a breadwinner. Longitudinal models revealed that changes in poverty status are associated with women’s satisfaction, but men’s satisfaction remains tied to their role as family provider. These unexpected results suggest that men’s satisfaction is positively associated with a more equal division of labor market activity between partners. PMID:25045175

Flat-plate solar array project. Volume 8: Project analysis and integration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mcguire, P.; Henry, P.

1986-01-01

Project Analysis and Integration (PA&I) performed planning and integration activities to support management of the various Flat-Plate Solar Array (FSA) Project R&D activities. Technical and economic goals were established by PA&I for each R&D task within the project to coordinate the thrust toward the National Photovoltaic Program goals. A sophisticated computer modeling capability was developed to assess technical progress toward meeting the economic goals. These models included a manufacturing facility simulation, a photovoltaic power station simulation and a decision aid model incorporating uncertainty. This family of analysis tools was used to track the progress of the technology and to explore the effects of alternative technical paths. Numerous studies conducted by PA&I signaled the achievement of milestones or were the foundation of major FSA project and national program decisions. The most important PA&I activities during the project history are summarized. The PA&I planning function is discussed and how it relates to project direction and important analytical models developed by PA&I for its analytical and assessment activities are reviewed.

Supply Chain Vulnerability Analysis Using Scenario-Based Input-Output Modeling: Application to Port Operations.

PubMed

Thekdi, Shital A; Santos, Joost R

2016-05-01

Disruptive events such as natural disasters, loss or reduction of resources, work stoppages, and emergent conditions have potential to propagate economic losses across trade networks. In particular, disruptions to the operation of container port activity can be detrimental for international trade and commerce. Risk assessment should anticipate the impact of port operation disruptions with consideration of how priorities change due to uncertain scenarios and guide investments that are effective and feasible for implementation. Priorities for protective measures and continuity of operations planning must consider the economic impact of such disruptions across a variety of scenarios. This article introduces new performance metrics to characterize resiliency in interdependency modeling and also integrates scenario-based methods to measure economic sensitivity to sudden-onset disruptions. The methods will be demonstrated on a U.S. port responsible for handling $36.1 billion of cargo annually. The methods will be useful to port management, private industry supply chain planning, and transportation infrastructure management. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

Socio-economic development and emotion-health connection revisited: a multilevel modeling analysis using data from 162 counties in China.

PubMed

Yu, Zonghuo; Wang, Fei

2016-03-12

Substantial research has shown that emotions play a critical role in physical health. However, most of these studies were conducted in industrialized countries, and it is still an open question whether the emotion-health connection is a "first-world problem". In the current study, we examined socio-economic development's influence on emotion-health connection by performing multilevel-modeling analysis in a dataset of 33,600 individuals from 162 counties in China. Results showed that both positive emotions and negative emotions predicted level of physical health and regional Gross Domestic Product Per Capita (GDPPC) had some impact on the association between emotion and health through accessibility of medical resources and educational status. But these impacts were suppressed, and the total effects of GDPPC on emotion-health connections were not significant. These results support the universality of emotion-health connection across levels of GDPPC and provide new insight into how socio-economic development might affect these connections.

Incomes, Attitudes, and Occurrences of Invasive Species: An Application to Signal Crayfish in Sweden

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gren, Ing-Marie; Campos, Monica; Edsman, Lennart; Bohman, Patrik

2009-02-01

This article analyzes and carries out an econometric test of the explanatory power of economic and attitude variables for occurrences of the nonnative signal crayfish in Swedish waters. Signal crayfish are a carrier of plague which threatens the native noble crayfish with extinction. Crayfish are associated with recreational and cultural traditions in Sweden, which may run against environmental preferences for preserving native species. Econometric analysis is carried out using panel data at the municipality level with economic factors and attitudes as explanatory variables, which are derived from a simple dynamic harvesting model. A log-normal model is used for the regression analysis, and the results indicate significant impacts on occurrences of waters with signal crayfish of changes in both economic and attitude variables. Variables reflecting environmental and recreational preferences have unexpected signs, where the former variable has a positive and the latter a negative impact on occurrences of waters with signal crayfish. These effects are, however, counteracted by their respective interaction effect with income.

Economic Analysis of Job-Related Attributes in Undergraduate Students' Initial Job Selection

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jin, Yanhong H.; Mjelde, James W.; Litzenberg, Kerry K.

2014-01-01

Economic tradeoffs students place on location, salary, distances to natural resource amenities, size of the city where the job is located, and commuting times for their first college graduate job are estimated using a mixed logit model for a sample of Texas A&M University students. The Midwest is the least preferred area having a mean salary…

De-mything the Cahokia catlinite trade

USGS Publications Warehouse

Emerson, T.E.; Hughes, R.E.

2001-01-01

Western-derived formalistic economic models continue to pervade much of the discussion relating to the political and economic history of noncapitalist societies. The rise of complex societies across the world has been intimately tied to such economic variables. In North America, the emergence of Cahokia and other Mississippian chiefdoms is also often linked to these factors. Such models rely on the large-scale movement of materials between distant locales. Critical to these approaches is the demonstration that items identified as "exotic" are nonlocal. Only archaeometric analysis can make this determination. This paper continues our research in geologic sourcing through X-ray diffraction and spectroscopic analysis (Emerson and Hughes 2000). We examine red stone from the American Bottom that was identified macroscopically as catlinite and as part of the panregional Cahokia trade network. We prove that the Cahokian "catlinite," in fact, is not catlinite and is from one or more other possible sources. This proof demonstrates catlinite, at the earliest, entered the American Bottom with Oneota peoples in the fourteenth century, and more likely, with protohistoric or historic groups in the sixteenth to seventeenth centuries. This geologic sourcing research continues to cast doubt on the role and importance of large-scale, long-distance economic transactions in Cahokian history.

Dynamic analysis using superelements for a large helicopter model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Patel, M. P.; Shah, L. C.

1978-01-01

Using superelements (substructures), modal and frequency response analysis was performed for a large model of the Advanced Attack Helicopter developed for the U.S. Army. Whiffletree concept was employed so that the residual structure along with the various superelements could be represented as beam-like structures for economical and accurate dynamic analysis. A very large DMAP alter to the rigid format was developed so that the modal analysis, the frequency response, and the strain energy in each component could be computed in the same run.

The Economics of a Successful Raccoon Rabies Elimination Program on Long Island, New York

PubMed Central

Elser, Julie L.; Bigler, Laura L.; Anderson, Aaron M.; Maki, Joanne L.; Lein, Donald H.; Shwiff, Stephanie A.

2016-01-01

Raccoon rabies is endemic in the eastern U.S.; however, an epizootic had not been confirmed on Long Island, New York until 2004. An oral rabies vaccination (ORV) program was initiated soon after the first rabies-positive raccoon was discovered, and continued until raccoon rabies was eliminated from the vaccination zone. The cost-effectiveness and economic impact of this rabies control program were unknown. A public health surveillance data set was evaluated following the ORV program on Long Island, and is used here as a case study in the health economics of rabies prevention and control efforts. A benefit-cost analysis was performed to determine the cost-effectiveness of the program, and a regional economic model was used to estimate the macroeconomic impacts of raccoon rabies elimination to New York State. The cost of the program, approximately $2.6 million, was recovered within eight years by reducing costs associated with post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) and veterinary diagnostic testing of rabies suspect animals. By 2019, the State of New York is projected to benefit from the ORV program by almost $27 million. The benefit-cost ratio will reach 1.71 in 2019, meaning that for every dollar spent on the program $1.71 will be saved. Regional economic modeling estimated employment growth of over 100 jobs and a Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increase of $9.2 million through 2019. This analysis suggests that baiting to eliminate rabies in a geographically constrained area can provide positive economic returns. PMID:27935946

The Economics of a Successful Raccoon Rabies Elimination Program on Long Island, New York.

PubMed

Elser, Julie L; Bigler, Laura L; Anderson, Aaron M; Maki, Joanne L; Lein, Donald H; Shwiff, Stephanie A

2016-12-01

Raccoon rabies is endemic in the eastern U.S.; however, an epizootic had not been confirmed on Long Island, New York until 2004. An oral rabies vaccination (ORV) program was initiated soon after the first rabies-positive raccoon was discovered, and continued until raccoon rabies was eliminated from the vaccination zone. The cost-effectiveness and economic impact of this rabies control program were unknown. A public health surveillance data set was evaluated following the ORV program on Long Island, and is used here as a case study in the health economics of rabies prevention and control efforts. A benefit-cost analysis was performed to determine the cost-effectiveness of the program, and a regional economic model was used to estimate the macroeconomic impacts of raccoon rabies elimination to New York State. The cost of the program, approximately $2.6 million, was recovered within eight years by reducing costs associated with post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) and veterinary diagnostic testing of rabies suspect animals. By 2019, the State of New York is projected to benefit from the ORV program by almost $27 million. The benefit-cost ratio will reach 1.71 in 2019, meaning that for every dollar spent on the program $1.71 will be saved. Regional economic modeling estimated employment growth of over 100 jobs and a Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increase of $9.2 million through 2019. This analysis suggests that baiting to eliminate rabies in a geographically constrained area can provide positive economic returns.

Temporal Variations of Water Productivity in Irrigated Corn: An Analysis of Factors Influencing Yield and Water Use across Central Nebraska

PubMed Central

Carr, Tony; Yang, Haishun; Ray, Chittaranjan

2016-01-01

Water Productivity (WP) of a crop defines the relationship between the economic or physical yield of the crop and its water use. With this concept it is possible to identify disproportionate water use or water-limited yield gaps and thereby support improvements in agricultural water management. However, too often important qualitative and quantitative environmental factors are not part of a WP analysis and therefore neglect the aspect of maintaining a sustainable agricultural system. In this study, we examine both the physical and economic WP in perspective with temporally changing environmental conditions. The physical WP analysis was performed by comparing simulated maximum attainable corn yields per unit of water using the crop model Hybrid-Maize with observed data from 2005 through 2013 from 108 farm plots in the Central Platte and the Tri Basin Natural Resource Districts of Nebraska. In order to expand the WP analysis on external factors influencing yields, a second model, Maize-N, was used to estimate optimal nitrogen (N)–fertilizer rate for specific fields in the study area. Finally, a vadose zone flow and transport model, HYDRUS-1D for simulating vertical nutrient transport in the soil, was used to estimate locations of nitrogen pulses in the soil profile. The comparison of simulated and observed data revealed that WP was not on an optimal level, mainly due to large amounts of irrigation used in the study area. The further analysis illustrated year-to-year variations of WP during the nine consecutive years, as well as the need to improve fertilizer management to favor WP and environmental quality. In addition, we addressed the negative influence of groundwater depletion on the economic WP through increasing pumping costs. In summary, this study demonstrated that involving temporal variations of WP as well as associated environmental and economic issues can represent a bigger picture of WP that can help to create incentives to sustainably improve agricultural production. PMID:27575368

Socio-economic and climate change impacts on agriculture: an integrated assessment, 1990–2080

PubMed Central

Fischer, Günther; Shah, Mahendra; N. Tubiello, Francesco; van Velhuizen, Harrij

2005-01-01

A comprehensive assessment of the impacts of climate change on agro-ecosystems over this century is developed, up to 2080 and at a global level, albeit with significant regional detail. To this end an integrated ecological–economic modelling framework is employed, encompassing climate scenarios, agro-ecological zoning information, socio-economic drivers, as well as world food trade dynamics. Specifically, global simulations are performed using the FAO/IIASA agro-ecological zone model, in conjunction with IIASAs global food system model, using climate variables from five different general circulation models, under four different socio-economic scenarios from the intergovernmental panel on climate change. First, impacts of different scenarios of climate change on bio-physical soil and crop growth determinants of yield are evaluated on a 5′×5′ latitude/longitude global grid; second, the extent of potential agricultural land and related potential crop production is computed. The detailed bio-physical results are then fed into an economic analysis, to assess how climate impacts may interact with alternative development pathways, and key trends expected over this century for food demand and production, and trade, as well as key composite indices such as risk of hunger and malnutrition, are computed. This modelling approach connects the relevant bio-physical and socio-economic variables within a unified and coherent framework to produce a global assessment of food production and security under climate change. The results from the study suggest that critical impact asymmetries due to both climate and socio-economic structures may deepen current production and consumption gaps between developed and developing world; it is suggested that adaptation of agricultural techniques will be central to limit potential damages under climate change. PMID:16433094

Effect of External Economic-Field Cycle and Market Temperature on Stock-Price Hysteresis: Monte Carlo Simulation on the Ising Spin Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Punya Jaroenjittichai, Atchara; Laosiritaworn, Yongyut

2017-09-01

In this work, the stock-price versus economic-field hysteresis was investigated. The Ising spin Hamiltonian was utilized as the level of ‘disagreement’ in describing investors’ behaviour. The Ising spin directions were referred to an investor’s intention to perform his action on trading his stock. The periodic economic variation was also considered via the external economic-field in the Ising model. The stochastic Monte Carlo simulation was performed on Ising spins, where the steady-state excess demand and supply as well as the stock-price were extracted via the magnetization. From the results, the economic-field parameters and market temperature were found to have significant effect on the dynamic magnetization and stock-price behaviour. Specifically, the hysteresis changes from asymmetric to symmetric loops with increasing market temperature and economic-field strength. However, the hysteresis changes from symmetric to asymmetric loops with increasing the economic-field frequency, when either temperature or economic-field strength is large enough, and returns to symmetric shape at very high frequencies. This suggests competitive effects among field and temperature factors on the hysteresis characteristic, implying multi-dimensional complicated non-trivial relationship among inputs-outputs. As is seen, the results reported (over extensive range) can be used as basis/guideline for further analysis/quantifying how economic-field and market-temperature affect the stock-price distribution on the course of economic cycle.

Accounting for Cured Patients in Cost-Effectiveness Analysis.

PubMed

Othus, Megan; Bansal, Aasthaa; Koepl, Lisel; Wagner, Samuel; Ramsey, Scott

2017-04-01

Economic evaluations often measure an intervention effect with mean overall survival (OS). Emerging types of cancer treatments offer the possibility of being "cured" in that patients can become long-term survivors whose risk of death is the same as that of a disease-free person. Describing cured and noncured patients with one shared mean value may provide a biased assessment of a therapy with a cured proportion. The purpose of this article is to explain how to incorporate the heterogeneity from cured patients into health economic evaluation. We analyzed clinical trial data from patients with advanced melanoma treated with ipilimumab (Ipi; n = 137) versus glycoprotein 100 (gp100; n = 136) with statistical methodology for mixture cure models. Both cured and noncured patients were subject to background mortality not related to cancer. When ignoring cured proportions, we found that patients treated with Ipi had an estimated mean OS that was 8 months longer than that of patients treated with gp100. Cure model analysis showed that the cured proportion drove this difference, with 21% cured on Ipi versus 6% cured on gp100. The mean OS among the noncured cohort patients was 10 and 9 months with Ipi and gp100, respectively. The mean OS among cured patients was 26 years on both arms. When ignoring cured proportions, we found that the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) when comparing Ipi with gp100 was $324,000/quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) (95% confidence interval $254,000-$600,000). With a mixture cure model, the ICER when comparing Ipi with gp100 was $113,000/QALY (95% confidence interval $101,000-$154,000). This analysis supports using cure modeling in health economic evaluation in advanced melanoma. When a proportion of patients may be long-term survivors, using cure models may reduce bias in OS estimates and provide more accurate estimates of health economic measures, including QALYs and ICERs. Copyright © 2017 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

[Cost-effectiveness and cost-benefit analysis on strategy for preventing mother-to-child transmission of hepatitis B virus].

PubMed

Cai, Y L; Zhang, S X; Yang, P C; Lin, Y

2016-06-01

Through cost-benefit analysis (CBA), cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) and quantitative optimization analysis to understand the economic benefit and outcomes of strategy regarding preventing mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) on hepatitis B virus. Based on the principle of Hepatitis B immunization decision analytic-Markov model, strategies on PMTCT and universal vaccination were compared. Related parameters of Shenzhen were introduced to the model, a birth cohort was set up as the study population in 2013. The net present value (NPV), benefit-cost ratio (BCR), incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) were calculated and the differences between CBA and CEA were compared. A decision tree was built as the decision analysis model for hepatitis B immunization. Three kinds of Markov models were used to simulate the outcomes after the implementation of vaccination program. The PMTCT strategy of Shenzhen showed a net-gain as 38 097.51 Yuan/per person in 2013, with BCR as 14.37. The universal vaccination strategy showed a net-gain as 37 083.03 Yuan/per person, with BCR as 12.07. Data showed that the PMTCT strategy was better than the universal vaccination one and would end with gaining more economic benefit. When comparing with the universal vaccination program, the PMTCT strategy would save 85 100.00 Yuan more on QALY gains for every person. The PMTCT strategy seemed more cost-effective compared with the one under universal vaccination program. In the CBA and CEA hepatitis B immunization programs, the immunization coverage rate and costs of hepatitis B related diseases were the most important influencing factors. Outcomes of joint-changes of all the parameters in CEA showed that PMTCT strategy was a more cost-effective. The PMTCT strategy gained more economic benefit and effects on health. However, the cost of PMTCT strategy was more than the universal vaccination program, thus it is important to pay attention to the process of PMTCT strategy and the universal vaccination program. CBA seemed suitable for strategy optimization while CEA was better for strategy evaluation. Hopefully, programs as combination of the above said two methods would facilitate the process of economic evaluation.

Mental health, places and people: a multilevel analysis of economic inactivity and social deprivation.

PubMed

Fone, David L; Dunstan, Frank

2006-09-01

Using data on 24,975 respondents to the Welsh Health Survey 1998 aged 17-74 years, we investigated associations between individual mental health status measured using the SF-36 instrument, social class, economic inactivity and the electoral division Townsend deprivation score. In a multilevel modelling analysis, we found mental health was significantly associated with the Townsend score after adjusting for composition, and this effect was strongest in respondents who were economically inactive. Further contextual effects were shown by significant random variability in the slopes of the relation between mental health and economic inactivity at the electoral division level. Our results suggest that the places in which people live affect their mental health, supporting NHS policy that multi-agency planning to reduce inequalities in mental health status should address the wider determinants of health, as well as services for individual patients.

Economic Impact Analyses of Interdisciplinary Multi-hazard Scenarios: ShakeOut and ARkStorm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wein, A. M.; Rose, A.; Sue Wing, I.; Wei, D.

2011-12-01

U. S. Geological Survey (USGS) scientists are using an interdisciplinary strategy to develop and analyze multi-hazard scenarios to help communities enhance resilience to natural hazard disasters. Two such scenarios are the southern California ShakeOut earthquake and the California ARkStorm winter storm. Both scenarios are multi-hazard: Shakeout ground motions trigger landslides and liquefaction and ARkStorm involves wind, flood, landslide, and coastal hazards. A collaborative scenario-process engages partners and stakeholders throughout the development and use of the scenarios, In doing so, community resilience is enhanced by educating communities about hazards and hazard interdependencies, building networks from scientists to decision makers, exercising emergency management strategies, identifying emergency management issues, and motivating solutions prior to an event. In addition, interdisciplinary scenarios stimulate research on the various steps of analysis (e.g., natural hazard processes, physical damages, societal consequences, and policy connections). In particular, USGS scientists have collaborated with economists to advance methods to estimate the economic impacts (business interruption losses) of disasters. Our economic impact analyses evolved from the economic module in the Federal Emergency Management Agency's loss-estimation tool, HAZUS-MH, to a more encompassing input-output analysis for ShakeOut, to a more sophisticated Computable General Equilibrium model for ARkStorm. The analyses depend on physical damage and restoration time estimates from engineers and geographic analyses of economic assets in hazard zones. Economic resilience strategies are incorporated to represent resourcefulness and ingenuity that avoids potential losses during and after an event. Such strategies operate at three levels of the economy: micro (e.g., ability to catch up on lost production time), meso (e.g., coordination within a sector to share resources), and macro (e.g., price adjustments to redistribute scarce resources). A sensitivity analysis of the ARkStorm economic impact model explores the effects of 1) the magnitude of the shocks (e.g., flood damages to buildings and infrastructure, agricultural productivity, and lifeline service disruptions), 2) the sustainability of the economic resilience strategies, and 3) the amount, timing, and source of reconstruction funds. The inclusion of an economic analysis in ShakeOut and ARkStorm broadens the range of interest in the scenario results. For example, the relative contribution of ShakeOut economic shocks to business interruption losses emphasized the need to reduce the impacts of fire following earthquake and water service disruption. Based on the magnitude and duration of the economic impacts for the ARkStorm scenario, policy experts surmised that business interruption policy time elements would be exceeded and business interruptions would be largely unfunded calling attention to the need for innovative funding solutions. Finally, economic impact analyses inform the question of paying now to mitigate or paying more later to recover.

A framework for analyzing the economic tradeoffs between urban commerce and security against terrorism.

PubMed

Rose, Adam; Avetisyan, Misak; Chatterjee, Samrat

2014-08-01

This article presents a framework for economic consequence analysis of terrorism countermeasures. It specifies major categories of direct and indirect costs, benefits, spillover effects, and transfer payments that must be estimated in a comprehensive assessment. It develops a spreadsheet tool for data collection, storage, and refinement, as well as estimation of the various components of the necessary economic accounts. It also illustrates the usefulness of the framework in the first assessment of the tradeoffs between enhanced security and changes in commercial activity in an urban area, with explicit attention to the role of spillover effects. The article also contributes a practical user interface to the model for emergency managers. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

Computable general equilibrium modelling of economic impacts from volcanic event scenarios at regional and national scale, Mt. Taranaki, New Zealand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McDonald, G. W.; Cronin, S. J.; Kim, J.-H.; Smith, N. J.; Murray, C. A.; Procter, J. N.

2017-12-01

The economic impacts of volcanism extend well beyond the direct costs of loss of life and asset damage. This paper presents one of the first attempts to assess the economic consequences of disruption associated with volcanic impacts at a range of temporal and spatial scales using multi-regional and dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) modelling. Based on the last decade of volcanic research findings at Mt. Taranaki, three volcanic event scenarios (Tahurangi, Inglewood and Opua) differentiated by critical physical thresholds were generated. In turn, the corresponding disruption economic impacts were calculated for each scenario. Under the Tahurangi scenario (annual probability of 0.01-0.02), a small-scale explosive (Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) 2-3) and dome forming eruption, the economic impacts were negligible with complete economic recovery experienced within a year. The larger Inglewood sub-Plinian to Plinian eruption scenario event (VEI > 4, annualised probability of 0.003) produced significant impacts on the Taranaki region economy of 207 million (representing 4.0% of regional gross domestic product (GDP) 1 year after the event, 2007 New Zealand dollars), that will take around 5 years to recover. The Opua scenario, the largest magnitude volcanic hazard modelled, is a major flank collapse and debris avalanche event with an annual probability of 0.00018. The associated economic impacts of this scenario were 397 million (representing 7.7% of regional GDP 1 year after the event) with the Taranaki region economy suffering permanent structural changes. Our dynamic analysis illustrates that different economic impacts play out at different stages in a volcanic crisis. We also discuss the key strengths and weaknesses of our modelling along with potential extensions.

Economic impact of public resource supply constraints in northeast Oregon. Forest Service general technical report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Waters, E.C.; Holland, D.W.; Haynes, R.W.

1997-04-01

Traditional, fixed-price (input-output) economic models provide a useful framework for conceptualizing links in a regional economy. Apparent shortcomings in these models, however, severely restrict our ability to deduce valid prescriptions for public policy and economic development. A more efficient approach using regional computable general equilibrium (CGE) models as well as a brief survey of relevant literature is presented. Computable general equilibrium results under several different resource policy scenarios are examined and contrasted with a fixed-price analysis. In the most severe CGE scenario, elimination of Federal range programs caused the loss of 1,371 jobs (2.3 percent of regional employment) and $29more » million (1.6 percent) of house income; and an 80-percent reduction in Federal log supplies resulted in the loss of 3,329 jobs (5.5 percent of regional employment), and $76 millin (4.2 percent) of household income. These results do not include positive economic impacts associated with improvement in salmon runs. Economic counter scenarios indicate that increases in tourism and high-technology manufacturing and growth in the population of retirees can largely offset total employment and income losses.« less

Moving towards an understanding of disability in older US stroke survivors

PubMed Central

Brenner, Allison B.; Burke, James F.; Skolarus, Lesli E.

2017-01-01

Objectives We test a comprehensive model of disability in older stroke survivors, and determine the relative contribution of neighborhood, economic, psychological and medical factors to disability. Methods The sample consisted of 728 stroke survivors from the National Health and Aging Trends Study (NHATS), who were 65 years and older living in community settings or residential care. Confirmatory factor analysis and structural equation modeling were used to test relationships between neighborhood, socioeconomic, psychological and medical factors and disability. Results Economic and medical context were associated with disability directly and indirectly through physical impairment. Neighborhood context was associated with disability, but was only marginally statistically significant (p=0.05). The effect of economic and neighborhood factors was small compared to that of medical factors. Discussion Neighborhood and economic factors account for a portion of the variance in disability among older stroke survivors beyond that of medical factors. PMID:27605555

Using Satellite Data for Environmental Impact Analysis in Economic Growth: the Case of Mongolia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tungalag, A.; Tsolmon, R.; Ochirkhuyag, L.; Oyunjargal, J.

2016-06-01

The Mongolian economy is based on the primary and secondary economic sectors of agriculture and industry. In addition, minerals and mining become a key sector of its economy. The main mining resources are gold, copper, coal, fluorspar and steel. However, the environment and green economy is one of the big problems among most of the countries and especially for countries like Mongolia where the mining is major part of economy; it is a number one problem. The research of the work tested how environmental elements effect to current Mongolian economic growth, which is growing economy because of mining sector. The study of economic growth but the starting point for any study of economic growth is the neoclassical growth model emphasizing the role of capital accumulation. The growth is analysed either in terms of models with exogenous saving rates (the Solow-Swan model), or models where consumption and hence savings are determined by optimizing individuals. These are the so-called optimal growth or Ramsey-Cass-Koopmans. The study extends the Solow model and the Ramsey-Cass-Koopmans model, including environmental elements which are satellite data determine to degraded land and vegetation value from 1995 to 2013. In contrast, we can see the degraded land area increases from 1995 (4856 m2) to 2013 (10478 m2) and vegetation value decrease at same time. A description of the methodology of the study conducted follows together with the data collected and econometric estimations and calibration with environmental elements.

Comparing the Efficiencies of Third Molar Surgeries With and Without a Dentist Anesthesiologist

PubMed Central

Young, S.; Boukas, E.; Davidian, E.; Carnahan, J.

2017-01-01

Two different anesthesia models were compared in terms of surgical duration, safer outcomes, and economic implications. Third molar surgeries performed with and without a separate dentist anesthesiologist were evaluated by a retrospective data analysis of the surgical operative times. For more difficult surgeries, substantially shorter operative times were observed with the dentist anesthesiologist model, leading to a more favorable surgical outcome. An example calculation is presented to demonstrate economic advantages of scheduling the participation of a dentist anesthesiologist for more difficult surgeries. PMID:28128661

Economic growth, motorization, and road traffic injuries in the Sultanate of Oman, 1985-2009.

PubMed

Al-Reesi, Hamed; Ganguly, Shyam Sunder; Al-Adawi, Samir; Laflamme, Lucie; Hasselberg, Marie; Al-Maniri, Abdullah

2013-01-01

Recent affluence, assisted by exploitation of hydrocarbon, has sparked unprecedented economic growth and influx of all façades of modernity in Oman. Different statistical models have examined the relationship between economic growth, motorization rates, and road traffic fatalities. However, such a relationship in Oman has never been described. To describe and analyze the trend of road traffic injuries (RTIs) in relation to motorization rates and economic growth during the period from 1985 to 2009 using Smeed's (1949) model and Koren and Borsos's (2010) model. The study is based on national data reported between 1985 and 2009. Data on the population and gross domestic product (GDP) per capita in U.S. dollars were gathered from the Ministry of National Economy reports. Data on the number of vehicles and road traffic crashes, fatalities, and injuries were gathered from the Royal Oman Police (ROP) reports. Crash, fatality, and injury rates per 1000 vehicles and per 100,000 population were computed. Linear regression analysis was carried out to estimate the average annual changes in the rates. Smeed's (1949) and Koren and Borsos's (2010) models were used to predict the relations between motorization and road traffic fatalities in Oman. In addition, a cross-sectional analysis of year 2007 data for a number of Arab countries was carried out. The GDP per capita increased from US$6551 in 1985 to US$25,110 in 2009 with an annual increase of UR$547 per capita. The motorization rates increased by 36 percent from 1745 per 10,000 population in 1985 to 2382 per 10,000 population in 2009. Both Smeed's (1949) and Koren and Borsos's (2010) models had a high goodness of fit, with R(2) greater than 0.70. This indicated that road traffic fatalities in Oman may have a direct relationship with increased motorization. The cross-sectional analysis showed that the relation between crash fatalities and motorization rates in Oman and the United Arab Emirates can be better explained by Koren and Borsos's (2010) model than other countries. Recent economic growth in Oman was associated with an increase in motorization rates, which in turn has resulted in an increased burden of road traffic fatalities and injuries.

Effects of Arthroscopy for Femoroacetabular Impingement Syndrome on Quality of Life and Economic Outcomes.

PubMed

Mather, Richard C; Nho, Shane J; Federer, Andrew; Demiralp, Berna; Nguyen, Jennifer; Saavoss, Asha; Salata, Michael J; Philippon, Marc J; Bedi, Asheesh; Larson, Christopher M; Byrd, J W Thomas; Koenig, Lane

2018-04-01

The diagnosis and treatment of femoroacetabular impingement (FAI) have increased steadily within the past decade, and research indicates clinically significant improvements after treatment of FAI with hip arthroscopy. This study examined the societal and economic impact of hip arthroscopy by high-volume surgeons for patients with FAI syndrome aged <50 years with noncontroversial diagnosis and indications for surgery. Economic and decision analysis; Level of evidence, 2. The cost-effectiveness of hip arthroscopy versus nonoperative treatment was evaluated by calculating direct and indirect treatment costs. Direct cost was calculated with Current Procedural Terminology medical codes associated with FAI treatment. Indirect cost was measured with the patient-reported data of 102 patients who underwent arthroscopy and from the reimbursement records of 32,143 individuals between the ages of 16 and 79 years who had information in a private insurance claims data set contained within the PearlDiver Patient Records Database. The indirect economic benefits of hip arthroscopy were inferred through regression analysis to estimate the statistical relationship between functional status and productivity. A simulation-based approach was then used to estimate the change in productivity associated with the change in functional status observed in the treatment cohort between baseline and follow-up. To analyze cost-effectiveness, 1-, 2-, and 3-way sensitivity analyses were performed on all variables in the model, and Monte Carlo analysis evaluated the impact of uncertainty in the model assumptions. Analysis of indirect costs identified a statistically significant increase of mean aggregate productivity of $8968 after surgery. Cost-effectiveness analysis showed a mean cumulative total 10-year societal savings of $67,418 per patient from hip arthroscopy versus nonoperative treatment. Hip arthroscopy also conferred a gain of 2.03 quality-adjusted life years over this period. The mean cost for hip arthroscopy was estimated at $23,120 ± $10,279, and the mean cost of nonoperative treatment was estimated at $91,602 ± $14,675. In 99% of trials, hip arthroscopy was recognized as the preferred cost-effective strategy. FAI syndrome produces a substantial economic burden on society that may be reduced through the indirect cost savings and economic benefits from hip arthroscopy.

Subjective economic status, sex role attitudes, fertility, and mother's work.

PubMed

Moon, C

1987-07-01

Data were drawn from the General Social Survey conducted by the National Opinion Research Center (NORC) in 1985 to observe the effect of subjective economic status and sex role attitude on fertility and mother's work, controlling for major influential variables such as household resources, individual characteristics, and place of residence. A multiple regression method was used to examine factors affecting the employment status of currently married mothers. The study objective was to develop the household resources model by adding the subjective economic status, i.e., economic status as perceived by a mother, and to observe how a wife's work as a coping strategy varies with the current number of children and sex role attitudes, when controlling for other explanatory variables -- including the subjective economic status. The 274 study subjects were currently married women with 1 or more children and ranging in age from 18-55 years. The effect of age on women's employment was not "so" significant, i.e., there were conflicting findings on the curvilinear effect of age. The effect of wives' education was not significant at a 95% confidence level in all regression equations. Race was negatively correlated to the probability of married women. The effect of race on women's employment was not significant at .05 level for all regressions. Region had no effect on women's entry into gainful employment. The effect of current number of children was significant at a 95% confidence level before controlling for subjective economic status and sex role attitude, but its effect on women's employment was insignificant when 2 types of additional explanatory variables were introduced independently or together. The regression analysis revealed a neutral effect of husbands' occupational prestige on employment status. The observed regression coefficient revealed that the possibility of women's employment will increase by 2% when the annual family income from other sources decreases by $1000. The analysis provides evidence in support of the household resources model and Oppenheimer's economic squeezes model. The inclusion of sex role attitude in the regression model did not affect the magnitude of impact of subjective economic status on mother's employment. Financial status had a significant influence on women's working status. The influence of sex role attitude on mother's working was not significant at a 95% confidence level, but the deletion of subjective economic status variables did increase a confidence level of significance from 0.82 to 0.89, indicating the feasible interaction between sex role attitude and economic squeezes.

Modeling the Structural Dynamic of Industrial Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilkinson, Ian F.; Wiley, James B.; Lin, Aizhong

Market systems consist of locally interacting agents who continuously pursue advantageous opportunities. Since the time of Adam Smith, a fundamental task of economics has been to understand how market systems develop and to explain their operation. During the intervening years, theory largely has stressed comparative statics analysis. Based on the assumptions of rational, utility or profit-maximizing agents, and negative, diminishing returns) feedback process, traditional economic analysis seeks to describe the, generally) unique state of an economy corresponding to an initial set of assumptions. The analysis is tatic in the sense that it does not describe the process by which an economy might get from one state to another.

A cost-effectiveness analysis of two different repositioning strategies for the prevention of pressure ulcers.

PubMed

Marsden, Grace; Jones, Katie; Neilson, Julie; Avital, Liz; Collier, Mark; Stansby, Gerard

2015-12-01

To assess the cost effectiveness of two repositioning strategies and inform the 2014 National Institute for Health and Care Excellence clinical guideline recommendations on pressure ulcer prevention. Pressure ulcers are distressing events, caused when skin and underlying tissues are placed under pressure sufficient to impair blood supply. They can have a substantial impact on quality of life and have significant resource implications. Repositioning is a key prevention strategy, but can be resource intensive, leading to variation in practice. This economic analysis was conducted to identify the most cost-effective repositioning strategy for the prevention of pressure ulcers. The economic analysis took the form of a cost-utility model. The clinical inputs to the model were taken from a systematic review of clinical data. The population in the model was older people in a nursing home. The economic model was developed with members of the guideline development group and included costs borne by the UK National Health Service. Outcomes were expressed as costs and quality adjusted life years. Despite being marginally more clinically effective, alternating 2 and 4 hourly repositioning is not a cost-effective use of UK National Health Service resources (compared with 4 hourly repositioning) for this high risk group of patients at a cost-effectiveness threshold of £20,000 per quality adjusted life years. These results were used to inform the clinical guideline recommendations for those who are at high risk of developing pressure ulcers. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Economic aspects of thermal treatment of solid waste in a sustainable WM system

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Massarutto, Antonio

2015-03-15

Highlights: • Provides a comprehensive review of the applied economic literature dedicated to WtE. • Offers a detailed discussion of the main assumptions that characterize alternative positions. • Highlights the most robust achievements obtained by the applied economic research in this field. • Compares economic and non-economic valuation techniques. - Abstract: This paper offers a systematic review of the literature of the last 15 years, which applies economic analysis and theories to the issue of combustion of solid waste. Waste incineration has attracted the interest of economists in the first place concerning the comparative assessment of waste management options, withmore » particular reference to external costs and benefits. A second important field of applied economic research concerns the market failures associated with the provision of thermal treatment of waste, that justify some deviation from the standard competitive market model. Our analysis discusses the most robust achievements and the more controversial areas. All in all, the economic perspective seems to confirm the desirability of assigning a prominent role to thermal treatments in an integrated waste management strategy. Probably the most interesting original contribution it has to offer concerns the refusal of categorical assumptions and too rigid priority ladders, emphasizing instead the need to consider site-specific circumstances that may favor one or another solution.« less

Economic modelling of grazing management against gastrointestinal nematodes in dairy cattle.

PubMed

van der Voort, M; Van Meensel, J; Lauwers, L; de Haan, M H A; Evers, A G; Van Huylenbroeck, G; Charlier, J

2017-03-15

Grazing management (GM) interventions, such as reducing the grazing time or mowing pasture before grazing, have been proposed to limit the exposure to gastrointestinal (GI) nematode infections in grazed livestock. However, the farm-level economic effects of these interventions have not yet been assessed. In this paper, the economic effects of three GM interventions in adult dairy cattle were modelled for a set of Flemish farms: later turnout on pasture (GM1), earlier housing near the end of the grazing season (GM2), and reducing the daily grazing time (GM3). Farm accountancy data were linked to Ostertagia ostertagi bulk tank milk ELISA results and GM data for 137 farms. The economic effects of the GM interventions were investigated through a combination of efficiency analysis and a whole-farm simulation model. Modelling of GM1, GM2 and GM3 resulted in a marginal economic effect of € 8.36, € -9.05 and € -53.37 per cow per year, respectively. The results suggest that the dairy farms can improve their economic performance by postponing the turnout date, but that advancing the housing date or reducing daily grazing time mostly leads to a lower net economic farm performance. Overall, the GM interventions resulted in a higher technical efficiency and milk production but these benefits were offset by increased feed costs as a result of higher maintenance and cultivation costs. Because the results differed highly between farms, GM interventions need to be evaluated at the individual level for appropriate decision support. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Emergy assessment of three home courtyard agriculture production systems in Tibet Autonomous Region, China*

PubMed Central

Guan, Fa-chun; Sha, Zhi-peng; Zhang, Yu-yang; Wang, Jun-feng; Wang, Chao

2016-01-01

Home courtyard agriculture is an important model of agricultural production on the Tibetan plateau. Because of the sensitive and fragile plateau environment, it needs to have optimal performance characteristics, including high sustainability, low environmental pressure, and high economic benefit. Emergy analysis is a promising tool for evaluation of the environmental-economic performance of these production systems. In this study, emergy analysis was used to evaluate three courtyard agricultural production models: Raising Geese in Corn Fields (RGICF), Conventional Corn Planting (CCP), and Pea-Wheat Rotation (PWR). The results showed that the RGICF model produced greater economic benefits, and had higher sustainability, lower environmental pressure, and higher product safety than the CCP and PWR models. The emergy yield ratio (EYR) and emergy self-support ratio (ESR) of RGICF were 0.66 and 0.11, respectively, lower than those of the CCP production model, and 0.99 and 0.08, respectively, lower than those of the PWR production model. The impact of RGICF (1.45) on the environment was lower than that of CCP (2.26) and PWR (2.46). The emergy sustainable indices (ESIs) of RGICF were 1.07 and 1.02 times higher than those of CCP and PWR, respectively. With regard to the emergy index of product safety (EIPS), RGICF had a higher safety index than those of CCP and PWR. Overall, our results suggest that the RGICF model is advantageous and provides higher environmental benefits than the CCP and PWR systems. PMID:27487808

Emergy assessment of three home courtyard agriculture production systems in Tibet Autonomous Region, China.

PubMed

Guan, Fa-Chun; Sha, Zhi-Peng; Zhang, Yu-Yang; Wang, Jun-Feng; Wang, Chao

2016-08-01

Home courtyard agriculture is an important model of agricultural production on the Tibetan plateau. Because of the sensitive and fragile plateau environment, it needs to have optimal performance characteristics, including high sustainability, low environmental pressure, and high economic benefit. Emergy analysis is a promising tool for evaluation of the environmental-economic performance of these production systems. In this study, emergy analysis was used to evaluate three courtyard agricultural production models: Raising Geese in Corn Fields (RGICF), Conventional Corn Planting (CCP), and Pea-Wheat Rotation (PWR). The results showed that the RGICF model produced greater economic benefits, and had higher sustainability, lower environmental pressure, and higher product safety than the CCP and PWR models. The emergy yield ratio (EYR) and emergy self-support ratio (ESR) of RGICF were 0.66 and 0.11, respectively, lower than those of the CCP production model, and 0.99 and 0.08, respectively, lower than those of the PWR production model. The impact of RGICF (1.45) on the environment was lower than that of CCP (2.26) and PWR (2.46). The emergy sustainable indices (ESIs) of RGICF were 1.07 and 1.02 times higher than those of CCP and PWR, respectively. With regard to the emergy index of product safety (EIPS), RGICF had a higher safety index than those of CCP and PWR. Overall, our results suggest that the RGICF model is advantageous and provides higher environmental benefits than the CCP and PWR systems.

Analysis of longitudinal data from the Puget Sound transportation panel : task E : modal split analysis

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1996-11-01

The Highway Economic Requirements System (HERS) is a computer model designed to simulate improvement selection decisions based on the relative benefit-cost merits of alternative improvement options. HERS is intended to estimate national level investm...

PROCEEDINGS OF THE CROSS DISCIPLINE ECOSYTEM MODELING AND ANALYSIS WORKSHOP

EPA Science Inventory

The complexity of environmental problems we face now and in the future is ever increasing. Process linkages among air, land, surface and subsurface water require interdisciplinary modeling approaches. The dynamics of land use change spurred by population and economic growth, ...

Generalized DSS shell for developing simulation and optimization hydro-economic models of complex water resources systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pulido-Velazquez, Manuel; Lopez-Nicolas, Antonio; Harou, Julien J.; Andreu, Joaquin

2013-04-01

Hydrologic-economic models allow integrated analysis of water supply, demand and infrastructure management at the river basin scale. These models simultaneously analyze engineering, hydrology and economic aspects of water resources management. Two new tools have been designed to develop models within this approach: a simulation tool (SIM_GAMS), for models in which water is allocated each month based on supply priorities to competing uses and system operating rules, and an optimization tool (OPT_GAMS), in which water resources are allocated optimally following economic criteria. The characterization of the water resource network system requires a connectivity matrix representing the topology of the elements, generated using HydroPlatform. HydroPlatform, an open-source software platform for network (node-link) models, allows to store, display and export all information needed to characterize the system. Two generic non-linear models have been programmed in GAMS to use the inputs from HydroPlatform in simulation and optimization models. The simulation model allocates water resources on a monthly basis, according to different targets (demands, storage, environmental flows, hydropower production, etc.), priorities and other system operating rules (such as reservoir operating rules). The optimization model's objective function is designed so that the system meets operational targets (ranked according to priorities) each month while following system operating rules. This function is analogous to the one used in the simulation module of the DSS AQUATOOL. Each element of the system has its own contribution to the objective function through unit cost coefficients that preserve the relative priority rank and the system operating rules. The model incorporates groundwater and stream-aquifer interaction (allowing conjunctive use simulation) with a wide range of modeling options, from lumped and analytical approaches to parameter-distributed models (eigenvalue approach). Such functionality is not typically included in other water DSS. Based on the resulting water resources allocation, the model calculates operating and water scarcity costs caused by supply deficits based on economic demand functions for each demand node. The optimization model allocates the available resource over time based on economic criteria (net benefits from demand curves and cost functions), minimizing the total water scarcity and operating cost of water use. This approach provides solutions that optimize the economic efficiency (as total net benefit) in water resources management over the optimization period. Both models must be used together in water resource planning and management. The optimization model provides an initial insight on economically efficient solutions, from which different operating rules can be further developed and tested using the simulation model. The hydro-economic simulation model allows assessing economic impacts of alternative policies or operating criteria, avoiding the perfect foresight issues associated with the optimization. The tools have been applied to the Jucar river basin (Spain) in order to assess the economic results corresponding to the current modus operandi of the system and compare them with the solution from the optimization that maximizes economic efficiency. Acknowledgments: The study has been partially supported by the European Community 7th Framework Project (GENESIS project, n. 226536) and the Plan Nacional I+D+I 2008-2011 of the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation (CGL2009-13238-C02-01 and CGL2009-13238-C02-02).

Employment Condition, Economic Deprivation and Self-Evaluated Health in Europe: Evidence from EU-SILC 2009-2012.

PubMed

Bacci, Silvia; Pigini, Claudia; Seracini, Marco; Minelli, Liliana

2017-02-03

Background : The mixed empirical evidence about employment conditions (i.e., permanent vs. temporary job, full-time vs. part-time job) as well as unemployment has motivated the development of conceptual models with the aim of assessing the pathways leading to effects of employment status on health. Alongside physically and psychologically riskier working conditions, one channel stems in the possibly severe economic deprivation faced by temporary workers. We investigate whether economic deprivation is able to partly capture the effect of employment status on Self-evaluated Health Status (SHS). Methods : Our analysis is based on the European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC) survey, for a balanced sample from 26 countries from 2009 to 2012. We estimate a correlated random-effects logit model for the SHS that accounts for the ordered nature of the dependent variable and the longitudinal structure of the data. Results and Discussion : Material deprivation and economic strain are able to partly account for the negative effects on SHS from precarious and part-time employment as well as from unemployment that, however, exhibits a significant independent negative association with SHS. Conclusions : Some of the indicators used to proxy economic deprivation are significant predictors of SHS and their correlation with the employment condition is such that it should not be neglected in empirical analysis, when available and further to the monetary income.

Employment Condition, Economic Deprivation and Self-Evaluated Health in Europe: Evidence from EU-SILC 2009–2012

PubMed Central

Bacci, Silvia; Pigini, Claudia; Seracini, Marco; Minelli, Liliana

2017-01-01

Background: The mixed empirical evidence about employment conditions (i.e., permanent vs. temporary job, full-time vs. part-time job) as well as unemployment has motivated the development of conceptual models with the aim of assessing the pathways leading to effects of employment status on health. Alongside physically and psychologically riskier working conditions, one channel stems in the possibly severe economic deprivation faced by temporary workers. We investigate whether economic deprivation is able to partly capture the effect of employment status on Self-evaluated Health Status (SHS). Methods: Our analysis is based on the European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC) survey, for a balanced sample from 26 countries from 2009 to 2012. We estimate a correlated random-effects logit model for the SHS that accounts for the ordered nature of the dependent variable and the longitudinal structure of the data. Results and Discussion: Material deprivation and economic strain are able to partly account for the negative effects on SHS from precarious and part-time employment as well as from unemployment that, however, exhibits a significant independent negative association with SHS. Conclusions: Some of the indicators used to proxy economic deprivation are significant predictors of SHS and their correlation with the employment condition is such that it should not be neglected in empirical analysis, when available and further to the monetary income. PMID:28165375

Economic Assessment of Correlated Energy-Water Impacts using Computable General Equilibrium Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qiu, F.; Andrew, S.; Wang, J.; Yan, E.; Zhou, Z.; Veselka, T.

2016-12-01

Many studies on energy and water are rightfully interested in the interaction of water and energy, and their projected dependence into the future. Water is indeed an essential input to the power sector currently, and energy is required to pump water for end use in either household consumption or in industrial uses. However, each presented study either qualitatively discusses the issues, particularly about how better understanding the interconnectedness of the system is paramount in getting better policy recommendations, or considers a partial equilibrium framework where water use and energy use changes are considered explicitly without thought to other repercussions throughout the regional/national/international economic landscapes. While many studies are beginning to ask the right questions, the lack of numerical rigor raises questions of concern in conclusions discerned. Most use life cycle analysis as a method for providing numerical results, though this lacks the flexibility that economics can provide. In this study, we will perform economic analysis using computable general equilibrium models with energy-water interdependencies captured as an important factor. We atempt to answer important and interesting questions in the studies: how can we characterize the economic choice of energy technology adoptions and their implications on water use in the domestic economy. Moreover, given predictions of reductions in rain fall in the near future, how does this impact the water supply in the midst of this energy-water trade-off?

77 FR 2340 - Occupational Information Development Advisory Panel

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-01-17

... testing of an OIS content model and taxonomy, work analysis instrumentation, sampling, and data collection... economics, sampling, data collection and analyses; (b) disability evaluation, vocational rehabilitation...

Sonographically guided intrasheath percutaneous release of the first annular pulley for trigger digits, part 2: randomized comparative study of the economic impact of 3 surgical models.

PubMed

Rojo-Manaute, Jose Manuel; Capa-Grasa, Alberto; Del Cerro-Gutiérrez, Miguel; Martínez, Manuel Villanueva; Chana-Rodríguez, Francisco; Martín, Javier Vaquero

2012-03-01

Trigger digit surgery can be performed by an open approach using classic open surgery, by a wide-awake approach, or by sonographically guided first annular pulley release in day surgery and office-based ambulatory settings. Our goal was to perform a turnover and economic analysis of 3 surgical models. Two studies were conducted. The first was a turnover analysis of 57 patients allocated 4:4:1 into the surgical models: sonographically guided-office-based, classic open-day surgery, and wide-awake-office-based. Regression analysis for the turnover time was monitored for assessing stability (R(2) < .26). Second, on the basis of turnover times and hospital tariff revenues, we calculated the total costs, income to cost ratio, opportunity cost, true cost, true net income (primary variable), break-even points for sonographically guided fixed costs, and 1-way analysis for identifying thresholds among alternatives. Thirteen sonographically guided-office-based patients were withdrawn because of a learning curve influence. The wide-awake (n = 6) and classic (n = 26) models were compared to the last 25% of the sonographically guided group (n = 12), which showed significantly less mean turnover times, income to cost ratios 2.52 and 10.9 times larger, and true costs 75.48 and 20.92 times lower, respectively. A true net income break-even point happened after 19.78 sonographically guided-office-based procedures. Sensitivity analysis showed a threshold between wide-awake and last 25% sonographically guided true costs if the last 25% sonographically guided turnover times reached 65.23 and 27.81 minutes, respectively. However, this trial was underpowered. This trial comparing surgical models was underpowered and is inconclusive on turnover times; however, the sonographically guided-office-based approach showed shorter turnover times and better economic results with a quick recoup of the costs of sonographically assisted surgery.

Cost-utility analysis of antiviral use under pandemic influenza using a novel approach - linking pharmacology, epidemiology and heath economics.

PubMed

Wu, D B C; Chaiyakunapruk, N; Pratoomsoot, C; Lee, K K C; Chong, H Y; Nelson, R E; Smith, P F; Kirkpatrick, C M; Kamal, M A; Nieforth, K; Dall, G; Toovey, S; Kong, D C M; Kamauu, A; Rayner, C R

2018-03-01

Simulation models are used widely in pharmacology, epidemiology and health economics (HEs). However, there have been no attempts to incorporate models from these disciplines into a single integrated model. Accordingly, we explored this linkage to evaluate the epidemiological and economic impact of oseltamivir dose optimisation in supporting pandemic influenza planning in the USA. An HE decision analytic model was linked to a pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamics (PK/PD) - dynamic transmission model simulating the impact of pandemic influenza with low virulence and low transmissibility and, high virulence and high transmissibility. The cost-utility analysis was from the payer and societal perspectives, comparing oseltamivir 75 and 150 mg twice daily (BID) to no treatment over a 1-year time horizon. Model parameters were derived from published studies. Outcomes were measured as cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained. Sensitivity analyses were performed to examine the integrated model's robustness. Under both pandemic scenarios, compared to no treatment, the use of oseltamivir 75 or 150 mg BID led to a significant reduction of influenza episodes and influenza-related deaths, translating to substantial savings of QALYs. Overall drug costs were offset by the reduction of both direct and indirect costs, making these two interventions cost-saving from both perspectives. The results were sensitive to the proportion of inpatient presentation at the emergency visit and patients' quality of life. Integrating PK/PD-EPI/HE models is achievable. Whilst further refinement of this novel linkage model to more closely mimic the reality is needed, the current study has generated useful insights to support influenza pandemic planning.

Evidence synthesis to inform model-based cost-effectiveness evaluations of diagnostic tests: a methodological review of health technology assessments.

PubMed

Shinkins, Bethany; Yang, Yaling; Abel, Lucy; Fanshawe, Thomas R

2017-04-14

Evaluations of diagnostic tests are challenging because of the indirect nature of their impact on patient outcomes. Model-based health economic evaluations of tests allow different types of evidence from various sources to be incorporated and enable cost-effectiveness estimates to be made beyond the duration of available study data. To parameterize a health-economic model fully, all the ways a test impacts on patient health must be quantified, including but not limited to diagnostic test accuracy. We assessed all UK NIHR HTA reports published May 2009-July 2015. Reports were included if they evaluated a diagnostic test, included a model-based health economic evaluation and included a systematic review and meta-analysis of test accuracy. From each eligible report we extracted information on the following topics: 1) what evidence aside from test accuracy was searched for and synthesised, 2) which methods were used to synthesise test accuracy evidence and how did the results inform the economic model, 3) how/whether threshold effects were explored, 4) how the potential dependency between multiple tests in a pathway was accounted for, and 5) for evaluations of tests targeted at the primary care setting, how evidence from differing healthcare settings was incorporated. The bivariate or HSROC model was implemented in 20/22 reports that met all inclusion criteria. Test accuracy data for health economic modelling was obtained from meta-analyses completely in four reports, partially in fourteen reports and not at all in four reports. Only 2/7 reports that used a quantitative test gave clear threshold recommendations. All 22 reports explored the effect of uncertainty in accuracy parameters but most of those that used multiple tests did not allow for dependence between test results. 7/22 tests were potentially suitable for primary care but the majority found limited evidence on test accuracy in primary care settings. The uptake of appropriate meta-analysis methods for synthesising evidence on diagnostic test accuracy in UK NIHR HTAs has improved in recent years. Future research should focus on other evidence requirements for cost-effectiveness assessment, threshold effects for quantitative tests and the impact of multiple diagnostic tests.

An Analysis of the President’s Budgetary Proposals for Fiscal Year 2005

DTIC Science & Technology

2004-03-01

productivity —which represents the state of technological know-how. The model is not forward-looking—people base their decisions entirely on...Bottles: A Meta-Analysis of Ricardian Equivalence,” Southern Economic Journal, vol. 64, no. 3 (January 1998), pp. 713-727. APPENDIX B THE MODELS ...Under the President’s Budget and UnderCBO’s Baseline Policy Assumptions 25How Fiscal Policy Affects the Economy 28 A Description of CBO’s Models and

Manual of phosphoric acid fuel cell power plant cost model and computer program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lu, C. Y.; Alkasab, K. A.

1984-01-01

Cost analysis of phosphoric acid fuel cell power plant includes two parts: a method for estimation of system capital costs, and an economic analysis which determines the levelized annual cost of operating the system used in the capital cost estimation. A FORTRAN computer has been developed for this cost analysis.

Parametric sensitivity analysis of an agro-economic model of management of irrigation water

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

El Ouadi, Ihssan; Ouazar, Driss; El Menyari, Younesse

2015-04-01

The current work aims to build an analysis and decision support tool for policy options concerning the optimal allocation of water resources, while allowing a better reflection on the issue of valuation of water by the agricultural sector in particular. Thus, a model disaggregated by farm type was developed for the rural town of Ait Ben Yacoub located in the east Morocco. This model integrates economic, agronomic and hydraulic data and simulates agricultural gross margin across in this area taking into consideration changes in public policy and climatic conditions, taking into account the competition for collective resources. To identify the model input parameters that influence over the results of the model, a parametric sensitivity analysis is performed by the "One-Factor-At-A-Time" approach within the "Screening Designs" method. Preliminary results of this analysis show that among the 10 parameters analyzed, 6 parameters affect significantly the objective function of the model, it is in order of influence: i) Coefficient of crop yield response to water, ii) Average daily gain in weight of livestock, iii) Exchange of livestock reproduction, iv) maximum yield of crops, v) Supply of irrigation water and vi) precipitation. These 6 parameters register sensitivity indexes ranging between 0.22 and 1.28. Those results show high uncertainties on these parameters that can dramatically skew the results of the model or the need to pay particular attention to their estimates. Keywords: water, agriculture, modeling, optimal allocation, parametric sensitivity analysis, Screening Designs, One-Factor-At-A-Time, agricultural policy, climate change.

A viability analysis for a stock/price model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jerry, Chakib; Raissi, Nadia

2012-09-01

We examine the conditions for the sustainability of a stock/price system based on the use of a marine renewable resource. Instead of studying the environmental and economic interactions in terms of optimal control, we focus on the viability of the system. These viability/crisis situations are defined by a set of economic state constraints. This constraints combine a guaranteed consumption and a minimum income for fishermen. Using the mathematical concept of viability kernel, we reveal that with only economics constraints we guarantee a perennial stock/price system.

Competition in the economic crisis: Analysis of procurement auctions.

PubMed

Gugler, Klaus; Weichselbaumer, Michael; Zulehner, Christine

2015-01-01

We study the effects of the recent economic crisis on firms׳ bidding behavior and markups in sealed bid auctions. Using data from Austrian construction procurements, we estimate bidders׳ construction costs within a private value auction model. We find that markups of all bids submitted decrease by 1.5 percentage points in the recent economic crisis, markups of winning bids decrease by 3.3 percentage points. We also find that without the government stimulus package this decrease would have been larger. These two pieces of evidence point to pro-cyclical markups.

Economic impacts of climate change on agriculture: the AgMIP approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Delincé, Jacques; Ciaian, Pavel; Witzke, Heinz-Peter

2015-01-01

The current paper investigates the long-term global impacts on crop productivity under different climate scenarios using the AgMIP approach (Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project). The paper provides horizontal model intercomparison from 11 economic models as well as a more detailed analysis of the simulated effects from the Common Agricultural Policy Regionalized Impact (CAPRI) model to systematically compare its performance with other AgMIP models and specifically for the Chinese agriculture. CAPRI is a comparative static partial equilibrium model extensively used for medium and long-term economic and environmental policy impact applications. The results indicate that, at the global level, the climate change will cause an agricultural productivity decrease (between -2% and -15% by 2050), a food price increase (between 1.3% and 56%) and an expansion of cultivated area (between 1% and 4%) by 2050. The results for China indicate that the climate change effects tend to be smaller than the global impacts. The CAPRI-simulated effects are, in general, close to the median across all AgMIP models. Model intercomparison analyses reveal consistency in terms of direction of change to climate change but relatively strong heterogeneity in the magnitude of the effects between models.

A stock-flow consistent input-output model with applications to energy price shocks, interest rates, and heat emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berg, Matthew; Hartley, Brian; Richters, Oliver

2015-01-01

By synthesizing stock-flow consistent models, input-output models, and aspects of ecological macroeconomics, a method is developed to simultaneously model monetary flows through the financial system, flows of produced goods and services through the real economy, and flows of physical materials through the natural environment. This paper highlights the linkages between the physical environment and the economic system by emphasizing the role of the energy industry. A conceptual model is developed in general form with an arbitrary number of sectors, while emphasizing connections with the agent-based, econophysics, and complexity economics literature. First, we use the model to challenge claims that 0% interest rates are a necessary condition for a stationary economy and conduct a stability analysis within the parameter space of interest rates and consumption parameters of an economy in stock-flow equilibrium. Second, we analyze the role of energy price shocks in contributing to recessions, incorporating several propagation and amplification mechanisms. Third, implied heat emissions from energy conversion and the effect of anthropogenic heat flux on climate change are considered in light of a minimal single-layer atmosphere climate model, although the model is only implicitly, not explicitly, linked to the economic model.

The NLS-Based Nonlinear Grey Multivariate Model for Forecasting Pollutant Emissions in China

PubMed Central

Pei, Ling-Ling; Li, Qin

2018-01-01

The relationship between pollutant discharge and economic growth has been a major research focus in environmental economics. To accurately estimate the nonlinear change law of China’s pollutant discharge with economic growth, this study establishes a transformed nonlinear grey multivariable (TNGM (1, N)) model based on the nonlinear least square (NLS) method. The Gauss–Seidel iterative algorithm was used to solve the parameters of the TNGM (1, N) model based on the NLS basic principle. This algorithm improves the precision of the model by continuous iteration and constantly approximating the optimal regression coefficient of the nonlinear model. In our empirical analysis, the traditional grey multivariate model GM (1, N) and the NLS-based TNGM (1, N) models were respectively adopted to forecast and analyze the relationship among wastewater discharge per capita (WDPC), and per capita emissions of SO2 and dust, alongside GDP per capita in China during the period 1996–2015. Results indicated that the NLS algorithm is able to effectively help the grey multivariable model identify the nonlinear relationship between pollutant discharge and economic growth. The results show that the NLS-based TNGM (1, N) model presents greater precision when forecasting WDPC, SO2 emissions and dust emissions per capita, compared to the traditional GM (1, N) model; WDPC indicates a growing tendency aligned with the growth of GDP, while the per capita emissions of SO2 and dust reduce accordingly. PMID:29517985

Integrating Household Risk Mitigation Behavior in Flood Risk Analysis: An Agent-Based Model Approach.

PubMed

Haer, Toon; Botzen, W J Wouter; de Moel, Hans; Aerts, Jeroen C J H

2017-10-01

Recent studies showed that climate change and socioeconomic trends are expected to increase flood risks in many regions. However, in these studies, human behavior is commonly assumed to be constant, which neglects interaction and feedback loops between human and environmental systems. This neglect of human adaptation leads to a misrepresentation of flood risk. This article presents an agent-based model that incorporates human decision making in flood risk analysis. In particular, household investments in loss-reducing measures are examined under three economic decision models: (1) expected utility theory, which is the traditional economic model of rational agents; (2) prospect theory, which takes account of bounded rationality; and (3) a prospect theory model, which accounts for changing risk perceptions and social interactions through a process of Bayesian updating. We show that neglecting human behavior in flood risk assessment studies can result in a considerable misestimation of future flood risk, which is in our case study an overestimation of a factor two. Furthermore, we show how behavior models can support flood risk analysis under different behavioral assumptions, illustrating the need to include the dynamic adaptive human behavior of, for instance, households, insurers, and governments. The method presented here provides a solid basis for exploring human behavior and the resulting flood risk with respect to low-probability/high-impact risks. © 2016 The Authors Risk Analysis published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Risk Analysis.

[Construction and application of economy-pollution-environment three-dimensional evaluation model for district].

PubMed

Fan, Xin-Gang; Mi, Wen-Bao; Ma, Zhen-Ning

2015-02-01

For deep analysis on the regional environmental economic system, the paper analyzes the mutual relation of regional economy development, environmental quality, environmental pollution, and builds the theoretical basis. Then, the economy-pollution-environment quality three-dimensional coupling evaluation model for district is constructed. It includes economic development level index, environmental pollution index, and environmental quality index. The model is a cube, which has spatialization and visualization characteristics. The model includes 8 sub cubes, which expresses 8 types of state, e. g. low pollution-inferior quality-low level of economic development etc. The model can be used to evaluate the status of region, divide development phase, analyze evolution trend etc. It has two ways including relative meaning evaluation (RME) and absolute meaning evaluation (AME). Based on the model, Yinchuan City in the Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region is used as an example for the empirical study. Using RME, compared with Guangzhou city, The result shows that the Yinchuan City has been a high pollution-low quality-low level of economic development state for a long period during 1996-2010. After 2007, the state changed to a high pollution-high quality-low level of economic development. Now, the environmental quality of Yinchuan city gets better, but pollutant discharge pressure is high, and tends to be the break point of high environment quality and low environment. With AME, using national standard, the Yinchuan City remains a high pollution-low quality-low level of economic development state during 1996-2010. Empirical research verifies that different target reference areas and relevant national standards have different main parameters, the evaluating result has an flexible range. The dimensionless data enhances the coupling of index. The data position in model increases the visibility to the environmental management decisions. The model improves mismatches of calculated data size, time asymmetry of spatial data, verification of the former multi-target coupling model.

Using economic instruments to develop effective management of invasive species: insights from a bioeconomic model.

PubMed

McDermott, Shana M; Irwin, Rebecca E; Taylor, Brad W

2013-07-01

Economic growth is recognized as an important factor associated with species invasions. Consequently, there is increasing need to develop solutions that combine economics and ecology to inform invasive species management. We developed a model combining economic, ecological, and sociological factors to assess the degree to which economic policies can be used to control invasive plants. Because invasive plants often spread across numerous properties, we explored whether property owners should manage invaders cooperatively as a group by incorporating the negative effects of invader spread in management decisions (collective management) or independently, whereby the negative effects of invasive plant spread are ignored (independent management). Our modeling approach used a dynamic optimization framework, and we applied the model to invader spread using Linaria vulgaris. Model simulations allowed us to determine the optimal management strategy based on net benefits for a range of invader densities. We found that optimal management strategies varied as a function of initial plant densities. At low densities, net benefits were high for both collective and independent management to eradicate the invader, suggesting the importance of early detection and eradication. At moderate densities, collective management led to faster and more frequent invader eradication compared to independent management. When we used a financial penalty to ensure that independent properties were managed collectively, we found that the penalty would be most feasible when levied on a property's perimeter boundary to control spread among properties. At the highest densities, the optimal management strategy was "do nothing" because the economic costs of removal were too high relative to the benefits of removal. Spatial variation in L. vulgaris densities resulted in different optimal management strategies for neighboring properties, making a formal economic policy to encourage invasive species removal critical. To accomplish the management and enforcement of these economic policies, we discuss modification of existing agencies and infrastructure. Finally, a sensitivity analysis revealed that lowering the economic cost of invader removal would strongly increase the probability of invader eradication. Taken together, our results provide quantitative insight into management decisions and economic policy instruments that can encourage invasive species removal across a social landscape.

Linking Temporal-Optimization and Spatial-Simulation Models for Forest Planning

Treesearch

Larry A. Leefers; Eric J. Gustafson; Phillip Freeman

2003-01-01

Increasingly, resource management agencies and researchers have turned their analysis and modeling efforts towards spatial and temporal information. This is driven by the need to address wildlife concerns, landscape issues, and social/economic questions. Historically, the USDA Forest Service has used optimization models (i.e., FORPLAN and Spectrum) for timber harvest...

SPATIALLY EXPLICIT MICRO-LEVEL MODELLING OF LAND USE CHANGE AT THE RURAL-URBAN INTERFACE. (R828012)

EPA Science Inventory

This paper describes micro-economic models of land use change applicable to the rural–urban interface in the US. Use of a spatially explicit micro-level modelling approach permits the analysis of regional patterns of land use as the aggregate outcomes of many, disparate...

Proposing a Formalised Model for Mindful Information Systems Offshoring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Costello, Gabriel J.; Coughlan, Chris; Donnellan, Brian; Gadatsch, Andreas

The central thesis of this chapter is that mathematical economics can provide a novel approach to the examination of offshoring business decisions and provide an impetus for future research in the area. A growing body of research indicates that projected cost savings from IT offshoring projects are not being met. Furthermore, evidence suggests that decision-making processes have been more emotional than rational, and that many offshoring arrangements have been rushed into without adequate analysis of the true costs involved. Building on the concept of mindfulness and mindlessness introduced to the IS literature by Swanson and Ramiller, a cost equation is developed using “deductive reasoning rather than inductive study” in the tradition of mathematical economics. The model endeavours to capture a wide range of both the quantitative and qualitative parameters. Although the economic model is illustrated against the background of a European scenario, the theoretical framework is generic and applicable to organisations in any global location.

CAL--ERDA program manual. [Building Design Language; LOADS, SYSTEMS, PLANT, ECONOMICS, REPORT, EXECUTIVE, CAL-ERDA

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hunn, B. D.; Diamond, S. C.; Bennett, G. A.

1977-10-01

A set of computer programs, called Cal-ERDA, is described that is capable of rapid and detailed analysis of energy consumption in buildings. A new user-oriented input language, named the Building Design Language (BDL), has been written to allow simplified manipulation of the many variables used to describe a building and its operation. This manual provides the user with information necessary to understand in detail the Cal-ERDA set of computer programs. The new computer programs described include: an EXECUTIVE Processor to create computer system control commands; a BDL Processor to analyze input instructions, execute computer system control commands, perform assignments andmore » data retrieval, and control the operation of the LOADS, SYSTEMS, PLANT, ECONOMICS, and REPORT programs; a LOADS analysis program that calculates peak (design) zone and hourly loads and the effect of the ambient weather conditions, the internal occupancy, lighting, and equipment within the building, as well as variations in the size, location, orientation, construction, walls, roofs, floors, fenestrations, attachments (awnings, balconies), and shape of a building; a Heating, Ventilating, and Air-Conditioning (HVAC) SYSTEMS analysis program capable of modeling the operation of HVAC components including fans, coils, economizers, humidifiers, etc.; 16 standard configurations and operated according to various temperature and humidity control schedules. A plant equipment program models the operation of boilers, chillers, electrical generation equipment (diesel or turbines), heat storage apparatus (chilled or heated water), and solar heating and/or cooling systems. An ECONOMIC analysis program calculates life-cycle costs. A REPORT program produces tables of user-selected variables and arranges them according to user-specified formats. A set of WEATHER ANALYSIS programs manipulates, summarizes and plots weather data. Libraries of weather data, schedule data, and building data were prepared.« less

Modeling economic and carbon consequences of a shift to wood-based energy in a rural 'cluster'; a network analysis in southeast Alaska

Treesearch

David Saah; Trista Patterson; Thomas Buchholz; David Ganz; David Albert; Keith Rush

2014-01-01

Integrated ecological and economic solutions are increasingly sought after by communities to provide basic energy needs such as home heating, transport, and electricity, while reducing drivers of and vulnerability to climate change. Small rural communities may require a coordinated approach to overcome the limitations of economies of scale. Low-carbon development...

Economic Impacts of Climate Change on Winter Tourism: Challenges for Ski Area Operators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Damm, A.; Köberl, J.; Prettenthaler, F.; Töglhofer, C.

2012-04-01

Increasing temperatures and snow scarce winter seasons pose a big challenge for the winter tourism industry. Changing natural snow reliability influences tourism demand and ski area operators are faced with an enhanced need of technical snow production. The goal of the present research work is to analyze the economic effects of technical snow production under future climate conditions. Snowmaking as an adaptation strategy to climate change impacts on the ski tourism industry is already taken into consideration in several studies from a scientific perspective concerning snowmaking potentials under future climate conditions and the impacts on ski season length (e.g. Scott et al. 2003; Scott & McBoyle 2007; Hennessy et al. 2008; Steiger 2010). A few studies considered economic aspects of technical snowmaking (e.g. Teich et al. 2007; Gonseth 2008). However, a detailed analysis of the costs and benefits of snowmaking under future climate and snow conditions based on sophisticated climate and snow models has not been carried out yet. The present study addresses the gap of knowledge concerning the economic profitability of prospective snowmaking requirements under future climate scenarios. We carry out a detailed cost-revenue analysis of snowmaking under current and future climate conditions for a case study site in Styria (Austria) using dynamic investment models. The starting point of all economic calculations is the daily demand for artificial snow that determines the requirements for additional snowmaking investments and additional operating costs. The demand for artificial snow is delivered by the snow cover model AMUNDSEN (see Strasser et al. 2011) and is driven by four climate scenarios. Apart from future climate conditions the profitability of snowmaking depends on changes in costs and visitor numbers. The results of a ski tourism demand model analyzing daily visitor numbers and their dependencies of prevailing weather conditions enter the cost-revenue analysis of snowmaking and enable the determination of the immediate benefits in terms of additional revenues of ski ticket sales. Furthermore, we conduct an econometric analysis of how snowmaking investments changed ski ticket prices in previous years, as the positive effects of snowmaking on snow reliability could be offset in the longer term by the effects of higher prices for skiing, possibly resulting in lower demand.

Revealing the underlying drivers of disaster risk: a global analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peduzzi, Pascal

2017-04-01

Disasters events are perfect examples of compound events. Disaster risk lies at the intersection of several independent components such as hazard, exposure and vulnerability. Understanding the weight of each component requires extensive standardisation. Here, I show how footprints of past disastrous events were generated using GIS modelling techniques and used for extracting population and economic exposures based on distribution models. Using past event losses, it was possible to identify and quantify a wide range of socio-politico-economic drivers associated with human vulnerability. The analysis was applied to about nine thousand individual past disastrous events covering earthquakes, floods and tropical cyclones. Using a multiple regression analysis on these individual events it was possible to quantify each risk component and assess how vulnerability is influenced by various hazard intensities. The results show that hazard intensity, exposure, poverty, governance as well as other underlying factors (e.g. remoteness) can explain the magnitude of past disasters. Analysis was also performed to highlight the role of future trends in population and climate change and how this may impacts exposure to tropical cyclones in the future. GIS models combined with statistical multiple regression analysis provided a powerful methodology to identify, quantify and model disaster risk taking into account its various components. The same methodology can be applied to various types of risk at local to global scale. This method was applied and developed for the Global Risk Analysis of the Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction (GAR). It was first applied on mortality risk in GAR 2009 and GAR 2011. New models ranging from global assets exposure and global flood hazard models were also recently developed to improve the resolution of the risk analysis and applied through CAPRA software to provide probabilistic economic risk assessments such as Average Annual Losses (AAL) and Probable Maximum Losses (PML) in GAR 2013 and GAR 2015. In parallel similar methodologies were developed to highlitght the role of ecosystems for Climate Change Adaptation (CCA) and Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR). New developments may include slow hazards (such as e.g. soil degradation and droughts), natech hazards (by intersecting with georeferenced critical infrastructures) The various global hazard, exposure and risk models can be visualized and download through the PREVIEW Global Risk Data Platform.

Implementing the Keele stratified care model for patients with low back pain: an observational impact study.

PubMed

Bamford, Adrian; Nation, Andy; Durrell, Susie; Andronis, Lazaros; Rule, Ellen; McLeod, Hugh

2017-02-03

The Keele stratified care model for management of low back pain comprises use of the prognostic STarT Back Screening Tool to allocate patients into one of three risk-defined categories leading to associated risk-specific treatment pathways, such that high-risk patients receive enhanced treatment and more sessions than medium- and low-risk patients. The Keele model is associated with economic benefits and is being widely implemented. The objective was to assess the use of the stratified model following its introduction in an acute hospital physiotherapy department setting in Gloucestershire, England. Physiotherapists recorded data on 201 patients treated using the Keele model in two audits in 2013 and 2014. To assess whether implementation of the stratified model was associated with the anticipated range of treatment sessions, regression analysis of the audit data was used to determine whether high- or medium-risk patients received significantly more treatment sessions than low-risk patients. The analysis controlled for patient characteristics, year, physiotherapists' seniority and physiotherapist. To assess the physiotherapists' views on the usefulness of the stratified model, audit data on this were analysed using framework methods. To assess the potential economic consequences of introducing the stratified care model in Gloucestershire, published economic evaluation findings on back-related National Health Service (NHS) costs, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and societal productivity losses were applied to audit data on the proportion of patients by risk classification and estimates of local incidence. When the Keele model was implemented, patients received significantly more treatment sessions as the risk-rating increased, in line with the anticipated impact of targeted treatment pathways. Physiotherapists were largely positive about using the model. The potential annual impact of rolling out the model across Gloucestershire is a gain in approximately 30 QALYs, a reduction in productivity losses valued at £1.4 million and almost no change to NHS costs. The Keele model was implemented and risk-specific treatment pathways successfully used for patients presenting with low back pain. Applying published economic evidence to the Gloucestershire locality suggests that substantial health and productivity outcomes would be associated with rollout of the Keele model while being cost-neutral for the NHS.

A Limitation of the Applicability of Interval Shift Analysis to Program Evaluation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hardy, Roy

1975-01-01

Interval Shift Analysis (ISA) is an adaptation of the linear programming model used to determine maximum benefits or minimal losses in quantifiable economics problems. ISA is applied to pre and posttest score distributions for 43 classes of second graders. (RC)

Achieving moral, high quality, affordable medical care in America through a true free market

PubMed Central

McKalip, David

2016-01-01

The basis of a just and moral economic model for health care is examined in the context of Catholic social teaching. The performance of the current model of “central economic planning” in medicine is evaluated in terms of the core principles of the social doctrine of the Catholic Church and compared to freedom-based economic models. It is clear that the best way to respect and serve human dignity, the common good, subsidiarity, and solidarity in medicine is through the establishment of a true, free-market health economy. Lay Summary: This article reviews the impact of recent healthcare reforms as well as traditional “third party payment” models for healthcare financing in America (insurance). Impact on patients and doctors are evaluated in the context of Catholic social doctrine and the Catechism. The many shortcomings and negative consequences of an economy planned centrally by government are compared to the benefits of a true free-market medical economy with empowered individuals. The analysis shows that interference in the patient–physician relationship and the centrally planned medical economy itself violates Catholic teachings, harms patients and doctors, and create morally evil outcomes and economic structures. PMID:28392591

Accounting for parameter uncertainty in the definition of parametric distributions used to describe individual patient variation in health economic models.

PubMed

Degeling, Koen; IJzerman, Maarten J; Koopman, Miriam; Koffijberg, Hendrik

2017-12-15

Parametric distributions based on individual patient data can be used to represent both stochastic and parameter uncertainty. Although general guidance is available on how parameter uncertainty should be accounted for in probabilistic sensitivity analysis, there is no comprehensive guidance on reflecting parameter uncertainty in the (correlated) parameters of distributions used to represent stochastic uncertainty in patient-level models. This study aims to provide this guidance by proposing appropriate methods and illustrating the impact of this uncertainty on modeling outcomes. Two approaches, 1) using non-parametric bootstrapping and 2) using multivariate Normal distributions, were applied in a simulation and case study. The approaches were compared based on point-estimates and distributions of time-to-event and health economic outcomes. To assess sample size impact on the uncertainty in these outcomes, sample size was varied in the simulation study and subgroup analyses were performed for the case-study. Accounting for parameter uncertainty in distributions that reflect stochastic uncertainty substantially increased the uncertainty surrounding health economic outcomes, illustrated by larger confidence ellipses surrounding the cost-effectiveness point-estimates and different cost-effectiveness acceptability curves. Although both approaches performed similar for larger sample sizes (i.e. n = 500), the second approach was more sensitive to extreme values for small sample sizes (i.e. n = 25), yielding infeasible modeling outcomes. Modelers should be aware that parameter uncertainty in distributions used to describe stochastic uncertainty needs to be reflected in probabilistic sensitivity analysis, as it could substantially impact the total amount of uncertainty surrounding health economic outcomes. If feasible, the bootstrap approach is recommended to account for this uncertainty.

A process economic assessment of hydrocarbon biofuels production using chemoautotrophic organisms

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Khan, NE; Myers, JA; Tuerk, AL

Economic analysis of an ARPA-e Electrofuels (http://arpa-e.energy.gov/?q=arpa-e-programs/electrofuels) process is presented, utilizing metabolically engineered Rhodobacter capsulatus or Ralstonia eutropha to produce the C30+ hydrocarbon fuel, botryococcene, from hydrogen, carbon dioxide, and oxygen. The analysis is based on an Aspen plus (R) bioreactor model taking into account experimentally determined Rba. capsulatus and Rls. eutropha growth and maintenance requirements, reactor residence time, correlations for gas-liquid mass-transfer coefficient, gas composition, and specific cellular fuel productivity. Based on reactor simulation results encompassing technically relevant parameter ranges, the capital and operating costs of the process were estimated for 5000 bbl-fuel/day plant and used to predict fuelmore » cost. Under the assumptions used in this analysis and crude oil prices, the Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) required for economic feasibility must be less than 2(sic)/kWh. While not feasible under current market prices and costs, this work identifies key variables impacting process cost and discusses potential alternative paths toward economic feasibility. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.« less

Equity analysis of land use and transport plans using an integrated spatial model.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2010-02-01

This paper describes a study to investigate how a spatial economic model can be used to evaluate the equity effects of land use and transport policies intended to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The Activity Allocation Module of the PECAS (Productio...

Spatial Analysis of Biomass Supply: Economic and Environmental Impacts

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The EPIC simulation model is used with SSURGO soils, field location information, and a transportation cost model to analyze potential biomass supply for a West Central MN bioenergy plant. The simulation shows the relationship between biomass price, locations of where biomass production is profitable...

Behavioral economics and regulatory analysis.

PubMed

Robinson, Lisa A; Hammitt, James K

2011-09-01

Behavioral economics has captured the interest of scholars and the general public by demonstrating ways in which individuals make decisions that appear irrational. While increasing attention is being focused on the implications of this research for the design of risk-reducing policies, less attention has been paid to how it affects the economic valuation of policy consequences. This article considers the latter issue, reviewing the behavioral economics literature and discussing its implications for the conduct of benefit-cost analysis, particularly in the context of environmental, health, and safety regulations. We explore three concerns: using estimates of willingness to pay or willingness to accept compensation for valuation, considering the psychological aspects of risk when valuing mortality-risk reductions, and discounting future consequences. In each case, we take the perspective that analysts should avoid making judgments about whether values are "rational" or "irrational." Instead, they should make every effort to rely on well-designed studies, using ranges, sensitivity analysis, or probabilistic modeling to reflect uncertainty. More generally, behavioral research has led some to argue for a more paternalistic approach to policy analysis. We argue instead for continued focus on describing the preferences of those affected, while working to ensure that these preferences are based on knowledge and careful reflection. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

Economic Analysis of Obtaining a PharmD Degree and Career as a Pharmacist

PubMed Central

Gatwood, Justin; Spivey, Christina A.

2015-01-01

Objective. To evaluate the economic value of pharmacy education/career and the effects of the cost of private or public pharmacy school, the length of degree program, residency training, and pharmacy career path on net career earnings. Methods. This study involved an economic analysis using Markov modeling. Estimated costs of education including student loans were considered in calculating net career earnings of 4 career paths following high school graduation: (1) immediate employment; (2) employment with bachelor’s degree in chemistry or biology; (3) employment as a pharmacist with no residency training; and (4) employment as a pharmacist after completing one or two years of residency training. Results. Models indicated that throughout their careers (up to age 67), PharmD graduates may accumulate net career earnings of $5.66 million to $6.29 million, roughly 3.15 times more than high school graduates and 1.57 to 1.73 times more than those with bachelor’s degrees in biology or chemistry. Attending a public pharmacy school after completing 3 years of prepharmacy education generally leads to higher net career earnings. Community pharmacists have the highest net career earnings, and PGY-1 residency-trained hospital pharmacists have greater net career earnings than those who immediately started their careers in a hospital setting. Conclusion. The economic models presented are based on assumptions described herein; as conditions are subject to variability, these models should not be used to predict future earnings. Nevertheless, the findings demonstrate investment in a pharmacy education yields favorable financial return. Application of results to schools of pharmacy, students, and graduates is discussed. PMID:26689560

Efficient finite element modelling for the investigation of the dynamic behaviour of a structure with bolted joints

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Omar, R.; Rani, M. N. Abdul; Yunus, M. A.; Mirza, W. I. I. Wan Iskandar; Zin, M. S. Mohd

2018-04-01

A simple structure with bolted joints consists of the structural components, bolts and nuts. There are several methods to model the structures with bolted joints, however there is no reliable, efficient and economic modelling methods that can accurately predict its dynamics behaviour. Explained in this paper is an investigation that was conducted to obtain an appropriate modelling method for bolted joints. This was carried out by evaluating four different finite element (FE) models of the assembled plates and bolts namely the solid plates-bolts model, plates without bolt model, hybrid plates-bolts model and simplified plates-bolts model. FE modal analysis was conducted for all four initial FE models of the bolted joints. Results of the FE modal analysis were compared with the experimental modal analysis (EMA) results. EMA was performed to extract the natural frequencies and mode shapes of the test physical structure with bolted joints. Evaluation was made by comparing the number of nodes, number of elements, elapsed computer processing unit (CPU) time, and the total percentage of errors of each initial FE model when compared with EMA result. The evaluation showed that the simplified plates-bolts model could most accurately predict the dynamic behaviour of the structure with bolted joints. This study proved that the reliable, efficient and economic modelling of bolted joints, mainly the representation of the bolting, has played a crucial element in ensuring the accuracy of the dynamic behaviour prediction.

Multiagent model and mean field theory of complex auction dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Qinghua; Huang, Zi-Gang; Wang, Yougui; Lai, Ying-Cheng

2015-09-01

Recent years have witnessed a growing interest in analyzing a variety of socio-economic phenomena using methods from statistical and nonlinear physics. We study a class of complex systems arising from economics, the lowest unique bid auction (LUBA) systems, which is a recently emerged class of online auction game systems. Through analyzing large, empirical data sets of LUBA, we identify a general feature of the bid price distribution: an inverted J-shaped function with exponential decay in the large bid price region. To account for the distribution, we propose a multi-agent model in which each agent bids stochastically in the field of winner’s attractiveness, and develop a theoretical framework to obtain analytic solutions of the model based on mean field analysis. The theory produces bid-price distributions that are in excellent agreement with those from the real data. Our model and theory capture the essential features of human behaviors in the competitive environment as exemplified by LUBA, and may provide significant quantitative insights into complex socio-economic phenomena.

Decomposing economic disparities in risky sexual behaviors among people who inject drugs in Tehran: Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition analysis.

PubMed

Noroozi, Mehdi; Sharifi, Hamid; Noroozi, Alireza; Rezaei, Fatemah; Bazrafshan, Mohammad Rafi; Armoon, Bahram

2017-01-01

To our knowledge, no previous study has systematically assessed the role of economic status in risky sexual behavior among people who inject drugs (PWID) in Iran. In this study, we used Blinder-Oaxaca (BO) decomposition to explore the contribution of economic status to inequality in unprotected sex among PWID in Tehran and to decompose it into its determinants. Behavioral surveys among PWID were conducted in Tehran, the capital city of Iran, from November 2016 to April 2017. We employed a cross-sectional design and snowball sampling methodology. We constructed the asset index (weighted by the first principal component analysis factor) using socioeconomic data and then divided the variable into 3 tertiles. We used the BO method to decompose the economic inequality in unprotected sex. Of the 520 recruited individuals, 20 were missing data for variables used to define their economic status, and were therefore excluded from the analysis. Not having access to harm reduction programs was the largest factor contributing to the economic disparity in unprotected sex, accounting for 5.5 percentage points of the 21.4% discrepancy. Of the unadjusted total economic disparity in unprotected sex, 52% was unexplained by observable characteristics included in the regression model. The difference in the prevalence of unprotected sex between the high-income and low-income groups was 25%. Increasing needle syringe program coverage and improving human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) knowledge are essential for efforts to eliminate inequalities in HIV risk behaviors among PWID.

ECONOMIC EVALUATIONS OF INTERVENTIONS FOR TRANSTIBIAL AMPUTEES: A SCOPING REVIEW OF COMPARATIVE STUDIES.

PubMed

Highsmith, M Jason; Kahle, Jason T; Lewandowski, Amanda; Klenow, Tyler D; Orriola, John J; Miro, Rebecca M; Hill, Owen T; Raschke, Sylvia Ursula; Orendurff, Michael S; Highsmith, James T; Sutton, Bryce S

2016-09-01

Transtibial amputation (TTA) is life-altering emotionally, functionally, and economically. The economic impact to all stakeholders is largely unknown, as is the cost-effectiveness of prosthetic intervention. This scoping report's purpose was to determine if there is sufficient evidence to conduct a formal systematic review or meta-analysis in any particular prosthetic intervention area and to determine if any evidence statements could be synthesized relative to economic evaluation of interventions provided to patients with TTA. The scoping review revealed six articles representing three topical areas of transtibial care: Care Models, Prosthetic Treatment, and Prosthetic Sockets. All six articles were cost-identification or cost-consequence design and included a total of 704 subjects. Presently, it can be concluded with moderate confidence that specific weight-bearing and total-contact sockets for transtibial amputees are functionally and economically equivalent in the short term when costs, delivery time, and all stakeholder perspectives are considered. Long-term socket outcomes are relatively unexplored. Further primary research is needed beyond this to determine cost-effectiveness for other areas of transtibial prosthetic care although clinical outcomes are somewhat established through systematic review and meta-analysis in other areas of care. Conversely, evaluation of narrative economic reports relative to transtibial care may be sufficient to warrant further analysis. Guidance from the profession may also be useful in devising a strategy for how to assure economic analyses are a routine element of future prosthetic science.

Risk-based input-output analysis of influenza epidemic consequences on interdependent workforce sectors.

PubMed

Santos, Joost R; May, Larissa; Haimar, Amine El

2013-09-01

Outbreaks of contagious diseases underscore the ever-looming threat of new epidemics. Compared to other disasters that inflict physical damage to infrastructure systems, epidemics can have more devastating and prolonged impacts on the population. This article investigates the interdependent economic and productivity risks resulting from epidemic-induced workforce absenteeism. In particular, we develop a dynamic input-output model capable of generating sector-disaggregated economic losses based on different magnitudes of workforce disruptions. An ex post analysis of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic in the national capital region (NCR) reveals the distribution of consequences across different economic sectors. Consequences are categorized into two metrics: (i) economic loss, which measures the magnitude of monetary losses incurred in each sector, and (ii) inoperability, which measures the normalized monetary losses incurred in each sector relative to the total economic output of that sector. For a simulated mild pandemic scenario in NCR, two distinct rankings are generated using the economic loss and inoperability metrics. Results indicate that the majority of the critical sectors ranked according to the economic loss metric comprise of sectors that contribute the most to the NCR's gross domestic product (e.g., federal government enterprises). In contrast, the majority of the critical sectors generated by the inoperability metric include sectors that are involved with epidemic management (e.g., hospitals). Hence, prioritizing sectors for recovery necessitates consideration of the balance between economic loss, inoperability, and other objectives. Although applied specifically to the NCR, the proposed methodology can be customized for other regions. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

Robustness of disaggregate oil and gas discovery forecasting models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Attanasi, E.D.; Schuenemeyer, J.H.

1989-01-01

The trend in forecasting oil and gas discoveries has been to develop and use models that allow forecasts of the size distribution of future discoveries. From such forecasts, exploration and development costs can more readily be computed. Two classes of these forecasting models are the Arps-Roberts type models and the 'creaming method' models. This paper examines the robustness of the forecasts made by these models when the historical data on which the models are based have been subject to economic upheavals or when historical discovery data are aggregated from areas having widely differing economic structures. Model performance is examined in the context of forecasting discoveries for offshore Texas State and Federal areas. The analysis shows how the model forecasts are limited by information contained in the historical discovery data. Because the Arps-Roberts type models require more regularity in discovery sequence than the creaming models, prior information had to be introduced into the Arps-Roberts models to accommodate the influence of economic changes. The creaming methods captured the overall decline in discovery size but did not easily allow introduction of exogenous information to compensate for incomplete historical data. Moreover, the predictive log normal distribution associated with the creaming model methods appears to understate the importance of the potential contribution of small fields. ?? 1989.

An economic assessment of foot and mouth disease in Japan.

PubMed

Hayama, Y; Osada, Y; Oushiki, D; Tsutsui, T

2017-04-01

A large-scale foot and mouth disease (FMD) epidemic in Japan in 2010 caused severe economic losses for livestock and related industries. In this paper, the authors develop a clear and usable framework to estimate the economic impact of this FMD outbreak. An economic analysis is then conducted by combining this framework with an epidemiological model. The framework estimates the direct and indirect costs to livestock and related industries by applying an input-output model, as well as by addressing expenditure on disease control. The direct cost to the livestock industry was estimated at 51.2 billion Japanese yen (JPY), engendering an indirect cost to related industries of JPY 25.5 billion. The expenditure for disease control activities was estimated at JPY 8.2 billion. The total impact of the 2010 FMD epidemic was estimated at almost JPY 85 billion. Within the economic analysis, the authors evaluate several control measure scenarios: a baseline scenario, which assumes that the rapid disease spread observed in the early phase of the 2010 FMD epidemic would continue; prompt culling within 24 hours; early detection of the first case; and emergency vaccination within a radius of 10 km around the affected farms in either seven or 28 days. Prompt culling and early detection were superior from an economic point of view, reducing the total economic impact to 30% and 2% of that in the baseline scenario, respectively. Compared with these scenarios, vaccination was less cost effective. However, vaccination suppressed the speed of disease spread and shortened the duration of the epidemic, suggesting its potential effectiveness in curbing rapid disease spread in a densely populated area.

Economic costs of childhood lead exposure in low- and middle-income countries.

PubMed

Attina, Teresa M; Trasande, Leonardo

2013-09-01

Children's blood lead levels have declined worldwide, especially after the removal of lead in gasoline. However, significant exposure remains, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. To date, there have been no global estimates of the costs related to lead exposure in children in developing countries. Our main aim was to estimate the economic costs attributable to childhood lead exposure in low- and middle-income countries. We developed a regression model to estimate mean blood lead levels in our population of interest, represented by each 1-year cohort of children < 5 years of age. We used an environmentally attributable fraction model to estimate lead-attributable economic costs and limited our analysis to the neurodevelopmental impacts of lead, assessed as decrements in IQ points. Our main outcome was lost lifetime economic productivity due to early childhood exposure. We estimated a total cost of $977 billions of international dollars in low- and middle-income countries, with economic losses equal to $134.7 billion in Africa [4.03% of gross domestic product (GDP)], $142.3 billion in Latin America and the Caribbean (2.04% of GDP), and $699.9 billion in Asia (1.88% of GDP). Our sensitivity analysis indicates a total economic loss in the range of $728.6-1162.5 billion. We estimated that, in low- and middle-income countries, the burden associated with childhood lead exposure amounts to 1.20% of world GDP in 2011. For comparison, in the United States and Europe lead-attributable economic costs have been estimated at $50.9 and $55 billion, respectively, suggesting that the largest burden of lead exposure is now borne by low- and middle-income countries.

Health Insurance Coverage and Take-Up: Lessons from Behavioral Economics

PubMed Central

Baicker, Katherine; Congdon, William J; Mullainathan, Sendhil

2012-01-01

Context Millions of uninsured Americans ostensibly have insurance available to them—many at very low cost—but do not take it up. Traditional economic analysis is based on the premise that these are rational decisions, but it is hard to reconcile observed enrollment patterns with this view. The policy prescriptions that the traditional model generates may thus fail to achieve their goals. Behavioral economics, which integrates insights from psychology into economic analysis, identifies important deviations from the traditional assumptions of rationality and can thus improve our understanding of what drives health insurance take-up and improved policy design. Methods Rather than a systematic review of the coverage literature, this article is a primer for considering issues in health insurance coverage from a behavioral economics perspective, supplementing the standard model. We present relevant evidence on decision making and insurance take-up and use it to develop a behavioral approach to both the policy problem posed by the lack of health insurance coverage and possible policy solutions to that problem. Findings We found that evidence from behavioral economics can shed light on both the sources of low take-up and the efficacy of different policy levers intended to expand coverage. We then applied these insights to policy design questions for public and private insurance coverage and to the implementation of the recently enacted health reform, focusing on the use of behavioral insights to maximize the value of spending on coverage. Conclusions We concluded that the success of health insurance coverage reform depends crucially on understanding the behavioral barriers to take-up. The take-up process is likely governed by psychology as much as economics, and public resources can likely be used much more effectively with behaviorally informed policy design. PMID:22428694

Analysis of inter-country input-output table based on bibliographic coupling network: How industrial sectors on the GVC compete for production resources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guan, Jun; Xu, Xiaoyu; Xing, Lizhi

2018-03-01

The input-output table is comprehensive and detailed in describing national economic systems with abundance of economic relationships depicting information of supply and demand among industrial sectors. This paper focuses on how to quantify the degree of competition on the global value chain (GVC) from the perspective of econophysics. Global Industrial Strongest Relevant Network models are established by extracting the strongest and most immediate industrial relevance in the global economic system with inter-country input-output (ICIO) tables and then have them transformed into Global Industrial Resource Competition Network models to analyze the competitive relationships based on bibliographic coupling approach. Three indicators well suited for the weighted and undirected networks with self-loops are introduced here, including unit weight for competitive power, disparity in the weight for competitive amplitude and weighted clustering coefficient for competitive intensity. Finally, these models and indicators were further applied empirically to analyze the function of industrial sectors on the basis of the latest World Input-Output Database (WIOD) in order to reveal inter-sector competitive status during the economic globalization.

Linked population and economic models: some methodological issues in forecasting, analysis, and policy optimization.

PubMed

Madden, M; Batey Pwj

1983-05-01

Some problems associated with demographic-economic forecasting include finding models appropriate for a declining economy with unemployment, using a multiregional approach in an interregional model, finding a way to show differential consumption while endogenizing unemployment, and avoiding unemployment inconsistencies. The solution to these problems involves the construction of an activity-commodity framework, locating it within a group of forecasting models, and indicating possible ratios towards dynamization of the framework. The authors demonstrate the range of impact multipliers that can be derived from the framework and show how these multipliers relate to Leontief input-output multipliers. It is shown that desired population distribution may be obtained by selecting instruments from the economic sphere to produce, through the constraints vector of an activity-commodity framework, targets selected from demographic activities. The next step in this process, empirical exploitation, was carried out by the authors in the United Kingdom, linking an input-output model with a wide selection of demographic and demographic-economic variables. The generally tenuous control which government has over any variables in systems of this type, especially in market economies, makes application in the policy field of the optimization approach a partly conjectural exercise, although the analytic capacity of the approach can provide clear indications of policy directions.

Cost-effectiveness analysis alongside clinical trials II-An ISPOR Good Research Practices Task Force report.

PubMed

Ramsey, Scott D; Willke, Richard J; Glick, Henry; Reed, Shelby D; Augustovski, Federico; Jonsson, Bengt; Briggs, Andrew; Sullivan, Sean D

2015-03-01

Clinical trials evaluating medicines, medical devices, and procedures now commonly assess the economic value of these interventions. The growing number of prospective clinical/economic trials reflects both widespread interest in economic information for new technologies and the regulatory and reimbursement requirements of many countries that now consider evidence of economic value along with clinical efficacy. As decision makers increasingly demand evidence of economic value for health care interventions, conducting high-quality economic analyses alongside clinical studies is desirable because they broaden the scope of information available on a particular intervention, and can efficiently provide timely information with high internal and, when designed and analyzed properly, reasonable external validity. In 2005, ISPOR published the Good Research Practices for Cost-Effectiveness Analysis Alongside Clinical Trials: The ISPOR RCT-CEA Task Force report. ISPOR initiated an update of the report in 2014 to include the methodological developments over the last 9 years. This report provides updated recommendations reflecting advances in several areas related to trial design, selecting data elements, database design and management, analysis, and reporting of results. Task force members note that trials should be designed to evaluate effectiveness (rather than efficacy) when possible, should include clinical outcome measures, and should obtain health resource use and health state utilities directly from study subjects. Collection of economic data should be fully integrated into the study. An incremental analysis should be conducted with an intention-to-treat approach, complemented by relevant subgroup analyses. Uncertainty should be characterized. Articles should adhere to established standards for reporting results of cost-effectiveness analyses. Economic studies alongside trials are complementary to other evaluations (e.g., modeling studies) as information for decision makers who consider evidence of economic value along with clinical efficacy when making resource allocation decisions. Copyright © 2015 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Paul Schwabe | NREL

Science.gov Websites

modeling and data analysis Education M.S. in applied economics and finance, University of California at . Arent, 2012. Mobilizing Public Markets to Finance Renewable Energy Projects: Insights from Expert

Economic analysis of centralized vs. decentralized electronic data capture in multi-center clinical studies.

PubMed

Walden, Anita; Nahm, Meredith; Barnett, M Edwina; Conde, Jose G; Dent, Andrew; Fadiel, Ahmed; Perry, Theresa; Tolk, Chris; Tcheng, James E; Eisenstein, Eric L

2011-01-01

New data management models are emerging in multi-center clinical studies. We evaluated the incremental costs associated with decentralized vs. centralized models. We developed clinical research network economic models to evaluate three data management models: centralized, decentralized with local software, and decentralized with shared database. Descriptive information from three clinical research studies served as inputs for these models. The primary outcome was total data management costs. Secondary outcomes included: data management costs for sites, local data centers, and central coordinating centers. Both decentralized models were more costly than the centralized model for each clinical research study: the decentralized with local software model was the most expensive. Decreasing the number of local data centers and case book pages reduced cost differentials between models. Decentralized vs. centralized data management in multi-center clinical research studies is associated with increases in data management costs.

Economic Analysis of Centralized vs. Decentralized Electronic Data Capture in Multi-Center Clinical Studies

PubMed Central

Walden, Anita; Nahm, Meredith; Barnett, M. Edwina; Conde, Jose G.; Dent, Andrew; Fadiel, Ahmed; Perry, Theresa; Tolk, Chris; Tcheng, James E.; Eisenstein, Eric L.

2012-01-01

Background New data management models are emerging in multi-center clinical studies. We evaluated the incremental costs associated with decentralized vs. centralized models. Methods We developed clinical research network economic models to evaluate three data management models: centralized, decentralized with local software, and decentralized with shared database. Descriptive information from three clinical research studies served as inputs for these models. Main Outcome Measures The primary outcome was total data management costs. Secondary outcomes included: data management costs for sites, local data centers, and central coordinating centers. Results Both decentralized models were more costly than the centralized model for each clinical research study: the decentralized with local software model was the most expensive. Decreasing the number of local data centers and case book pages reduced cost differentials between models. Conclusion Decentralized vs. centralized data management in multi-center clinical research studies is associated with increases in data management costs. PMID:21335692

Designing water demand management schemes using a socio-technical modelling approach.

PubMed

Baki, Sotiria; Rozos, Evangelos; Makropoulos, Christos

2018-05-01

Although it is now widely acknowledged that urban water systems (UWSs) are complex socio-technical systems and that a shift towards a socio-technical approach is critical in achieving sustainable urban water management, still, more often than not, UWSs are designed using a segmented modelling approach. As such, either the analysis focuses on the description of the purely technical sub-system, without explicitly taking into account the system's dynamic socio-economic processes, or a more interdisciplinary approach is followed, but delivered through relatively coarse models, which often fail to provide a thorough representation of the urban water cycle and hence cannot deliver accurate estimations of the hydrosystem's responses. In this work we propose an integrated modelling approach for the study of the complete socio-technical UWS that also takes into account socio-economic and climatic variability. We have developed an integrated model, which is used to investigate the diffusion of household water conservation technologies and its effects on the UWS, under different socio-economic and climatic scenarios. The integrated model is formed by coupling a System Dynamics model that simulates the water technology adoption process, and the Urban Water Optioneering Tool (UWOT) for the detailed simulation of the urban water cycle. The model and approach are tested and demonstrated in an urban redevelopment area in Athens, Greece under different socio-economic scenarios and policy interventions. It is suggested that the proposed approach can establish quantifiable links between socio-economic change and UWS responses and therefore assist decision makers in designing more effective and resilient long-term strategies for water conservation. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Economics, ecologics, and mechanics: The dynamics of responding under conditions of varying motivation

PubMed Central

Killeen, Peter R.

1995-01-01

The mechanics of behavior developed by Killeen (1994) is extended to deal with deprivation and satiation and with recovery of arousal at the beginning of sessions. The extended theory is validated against satiation curves and within-session changes in response rates. Anomalies, such as (a) the positive correlation between magnitude of an incentive and response rates in some contexts and a negative correlation in other contexts and (b) the greater prominence of incentive effects when magnitude is varied within the session rather than between sessions, are explained in terms of the basic interplay of drive and incentive motivation. The models are applied to data from closed economies in which changes of satiation levels play a key role in determining the changes in behavior. Relaxation of various assumptions leads to closed-form models for response rates and demand functions in these contexts, ones that show reasonable accord with the data and reinforce arguments for unit price as a controlling variable. The central role of deprivation level in this treatment distinguishes it from economic models. It is argued that traditional experiments should be redesigned to reveal basic principles, that ecologic experiments should be redesigned to test the applicability of those principles in more natural contexts, and that behavioral economics should consist of the applications of these principles to economic contexts, not the adoption of economic models as alternatives to behavioral analysis. PMID:16812776

Assessment of environmental impacts following alternative agricultural policy scenarios.

PubMed

Bárlund, I; Lehtonen, H; Tattari, S

2005-01-01

Abstract Finnish agriculture is likely to undergo major changes in the near and intermediate future. The ifuture policy context can be examined at a general level by strategic scenario building. Computer-based modelling in combination with agricultural policy scenarios can in turn create a basis for the assessments of changes in environmental quality following possible changes in Finnish agriculture. The analysis of economic consequences is based on the DREMFIA model, which is applied to study effects of various agricultural policies on land use, animal production, and farmers' income. The model is suitable for an impact analysis covering an extended time span--here up to the year 2015. The changes in land use, obtained with the DREMFIA model assuming rational economic behaviour, form the basis when evaluating environmental impacts of different agricultural policies. The environmental impact assessment is performed using the field scale nutrient transport model ICECREAM. The modelled variables are nitrogen and phosphorus losses in surface runoff and percolation. In this paper the modelling strategy will be presented and highlighted using two case study catchments with varying environmental conditions and land use as an example. In addition, the paper identifies issues arising when connecting policy scenarios with impact modelling.

Reconstructing the world trade multiplex: The role of intensive and extensive biases

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mastrandrea, Rossana; Squartini, Tiziano; Fagiolo, Giorgio; Garlaschelli, Diego

2014-12-01

In economic and financial networks, the strength of each node has always an important economic meaning, such as the size of supply and demand, import and export, or financial exposure. Constructing null models of networks matching the observed strengths of all nodes is crucial in order to either detect interesting deviations of an empirical network from economically meaningful benchmarks or reconstruct the most likely structure of an economic network when the latter is unknown. However, several studies have proved that real economic networks and multiplexes topologically differ from configurations inferred only from node strengths. Here we provide a detailed analysis of the world trade multiplex by comparing it to an enhanced null model that simultaneously reproduces the strength and the degree of each node. We study several temporal snapshots and almost 100 layers (commodity classes) of the multiplex and find that the observed properties are systematically well reproduced by our model. Our formalism allows us to introduce the (static) concept of extensive and intensive bias, defined as a measurable tendency of the network to prefer either the formation of extra links or the reinforcement of link weights, with respect to a reference case where only strengths are enforced. Our findings complement the existing economic literature on (dynamic) intensive and extensive trade margins. More generally, they show that real-world multiplexes can be strongly shaped by layer-specific local constraints.

Time costs, aspirations and the effect of economic growth on German fertility.

PubMed

Ermisch, J F

1980-01-01

Recent research has shown strong support for the model of reproductive behavior derived from the new home economics, and it is shown in this discussion that the evidence from the Federal Republic of Germany is consistent with the new home economics model. There is little support for Easterlin's relative economic hypothesis, but there is limited endorsement for model which adds the influence of experience based material aspirations to the new home economics model. Easterlin's relative income model is reviewed before directing attention to the new home economics model and an explanation of fertility movements in West Germany. The new home economics model focuses on the family division of labor between home activities and work outside the home. The marked decline in German fertility during the 1970s is mostly attributable to factors such as expanding women's earning capacities which increased the importance of 2 earner families, who have a different family division of labor and possibly preferences biased towards "quality" of children rather than numbers. Also, real wage growth lagged behind the growth in experience based aspirations, and this drop in relative income is more dramatic if it is presumed that material aspirations are based upon the family's income experienced by a young adult during his/her adolescence, rather than just the father's earnings. The mother's contribution to family income will contribute to her family's actual standard of living and the desired standard of living of her children. The labor force participation rates of married, middle-aged German women increased markedly during the 1st half of the 1950s, thus tending to enhance the increase in the standard of living desired by the young adults reaching marrying and childbearing ages in the mid-1960s. The analysis indicates that if there is not a substantial reduction in the proportion of young married women in the labor force, fertility will move countercyclically. In that there must be some floor to fertility, one should be cautious of using these parameter estimates considerably outside the 1950-1977 period. Nonetheless, the estimates indicate that economic growth will not bring a substantial rise in German fertility, and, outside the unlikely situation of sustained economic decline, fertility will remain low.

Report on Integration of Existing Grid Models for N-R HES Interaction Focused on Balancing Authorities for Sub-hour Penalties and Opportunities

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

McJunkin, Timothy; Epiney, Aaron; Rabiti, Cristian

2017-06-01

This report provides a summary of the effort in the Nuclear-Renewable Hybrid Energy System (N-R HES) project on the level 4 milestone to consider integration of existing grid models into the factors for optimization on shorter time intervals than the existing electric grid models with the Risk Analysis Virtual Environment (RAVEN) and Modelica [1] optimizations and economic analysis that are the focus of the project to date.

Bunching at the kink: implications for spending responses to health insurance contracts

PubMed Central

Einav, Liran; Finkelstein, Amy

2017-01-01

A large literature in empirical public finance relies on “bunching” to identify a behavioral response to non-linear incentives and to translate this response into an economic object to be used counterfactually. We conduct this type of analysis in the context of prescription drug insurance for the elderly in Medicare Part D, where a kink in the individual’s budget set generates substantial bunching in annual drug expenditure around the famous “donut hole”. We show that different alternative economic models can match the basic bunching pattern, but have very different quantitative implications for the counterfactual spending response to alternative insurance contracts. These findings illustrate the importance of modeling choices in mapping a compelling reduced form pattern into an economic object of interest. PMID:28785121

The HIV Cure Research Agenda: The Role of Mathematical Modelling and Cost-Effectiveness Analysis.

PubMed

Freedberg, Kenneth A; Possas, Cristina; Deeks, Steven; Ross, Anna Laura; Rosettie, Katherine L; Di Mascio, Michele; Collins, Chris; Walensky, Rochelle P; Yazdanpanah, Yazdan

The research agenda towards an HIV cure is building rapidly. In this article, we discuss the reasons for and methodological approach to using mathematical modeling and cost-effectiveness analysis in this agenda. We provide a brief description of the proof of concept for cure and the current directions of cure research. We then review the types of clinical economic evaluations, including cost analysis, cost-benefit analysis, and cost-effectiveness analysis. We describe the use of mathematical modeling and cost-effectiveness analysis early in the HIV epidemic as well as in the era of combination antiretroviral therapy. We then highlight the novel methodology of Value of Information analysis and its potential role in the planning of clinical trials. We close with recommendations for modeling and cost-effectiveness analysis in the HIV cure agenda.

Routine magnetic resonance imaging for idiopathic olfactory loss: a modeling-based economic evaluation.

PubMed

Rudmik, Luke; Smith, Kristine A; Soler, Zachary M; Schlosser, Rodney J; Smith, Timothy L

2014-10-01

Idiopathic olfactory loss is a common clinical scenario encountered by otolaryngologists. While trying to allocate limited health care resources appropriately, the decision to obtain a magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scan to investigate for a rare intracranial abnormality can be difficult. To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of ordering routine MRI in patients with idiopathic olfactory loss. We performed a modeling-based economic evaluation with a time horizon of less than 1 year. Patients included in the analysis had idiopathic olfactory loss defined by no preceding viral illness or head trauma and negative findings of a physical examination and nasal endoscopy. Routine MRI vs no-imaging strategies. We developed a decision tree economic model from the societal perspective. Effectiveness, probability, and cost data were obtained from the published literature. Litigation rates and costs related to a missed diagnosis were obtained from the Physicians Insurers Association of America. A univariate threshold analysis and multivariate probabilistic sensitivity analysis were performed to quantify the degree of certainty in the economic conclusion of the reference case. The comparative groups included those who underwent routine MRI of the brain with contrast alone and those who underwent no brain imaging. The primary outcome was the cost per correct diagnosis of idiopathic olfactory loss. The mean (SD) cost for the MRI strategy totaled $2400.00 ($1717.54) and was effective 100% of the time, whereas the mean (SD) cost for the no-imaging strategy totaled $86.61 ($107.40) and was effective 98% of the time. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for the MRI strategy compared with the no-imaging strategy was $115 669.50, which is higher than most acceptable willingness-to-pay thresholds. The threshold analysis demonstrated that when the probability of having a treatable intracranial disease process reached 7.9%, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for MRI vs no imaging was $24 654.38. The probabilistic sensitivity analysis demonstrated that the no-imaging strategy was the cost-effective decision with 81% certainty at a willingness-to-pay threshold of $50 000. This economic evaluation suggests that the most cost-effective decision is to not obtain a routine MRI scan of the brain in patients with idiopathic olfactory loss. Outcomes from this study may be used to counsel patients and aid in the decision-making process.

International workshop on ITS benefits : how evaluation results are used in transportation decision-making, November 9, 2000 Turin, Italy

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1998-09-16

This paper demonstrates application of the principles of economic analysis to evaluate highway capacity expansion in an urban setting, using a sketch-planning model called Spreadsheet Model for Induced Travel Estimation (SMITE). The application takes...

Analysis and Application of Quality Economics Based on Input-Output

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, Qiang; Li, Xin

2018-01-01

Quality economics analysis is an important research area in the current economic frontier, which has a huge role in promoting the quality-benefit type road development in China. Through the study of quality economics analysis and application, economics of quality and quality economics management are summarized, and theoretical framework of quality economics analysis is constructed. Finally, the quality economics analysis of aerospace equipment is taken as an example to carry on the application research.

Kathleen Krah | NREL

Science.gov Websites

tool validation. Previous to joining NREL, her Masters thesis focused on a spatial analysis of strategies. Her undergraduate thesis focused on techno-economic and logistical cost modeling of offshore wind

Study on Spatial Spillover Effects of Logistics Industry Development for Economic Growth in the Yangtze River Delta City Cluster Based on Spatial Durbin Model

PubMed Central

Xu, Xinxing

2017-01-01

The overall entropy method is used to evaluate the development level of the logistics industry in the city based on a mechanism analysis of the spillover effect of the development of the logistics industry on economic growth, according to the panel data of 26 cities in the Yangtze River delta. On this basis, the paper uses the spatial durbin model to study the direct impact of the development of the logistics industry on economic growth and the spatial spillover effect. The results show that the direct impact coefficient of the development of the logistics industry in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration on local economic growth is 0.092, and the significant spatial spillover effect on the economic growth in the surrounding area is 0.197. Compared with the labor force input, capital investment and the degree of opening to the world, and government functions, the logistics industry’s direct impact coefficient is the largest, other than capital investment; the coefficient of the spillover effect is higher than other control variables, making it a “strong engine” of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration economic growth. PMID:29207555

Computational investigation of fluid flow and heat transfer of an economizer by porous medium approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Babu, C. Rajesh; Kumar, P.; Rajamohan, G.

2017-07-01

Computation of fluid flow and heat transfer in an economizer is simulated by a porous medium approach, with plain tubes having a horizontal in-line arrangement and cross flow arrangement in a coal-fired thermal power plant. The economizer is a thermal mechanical device that captures waste heat from the thermal exhaust flue gasses through heat transfer surfaces to preheat boiler feed water. In order to evaluate the fluid flow and heat transfer on tubes, a numerical analysis on heat transfer performance is carried out on an 110 t/h MCR (Maximum continuous rating) boiler unit. In this study, thermal performance is investigated using the computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulation using ANSYS FLUENT. The fouling factor ε and the overall heat transfer coefficient ψ are employed to evaluate the fluid flow and heat transfer. The model demands significant computational details for geometric modeling, grid generation, and numerical calculations to evaluate the thermal performance of an economizer. The simulation results show that the overall heat transfer coefficient 37.76 W/(m2K) and economizer coil side pressure drop of 0.2 (kg/cm2) are found to be conformity within the tolerable limits when compared with existing industrial economizer data.

Study on Spatial Spillover Effects of Logistics Industry Development for Economic Growth in the Yangtze River Delta City Cluster Based on Spatial Durbin Model.

PubMed

Xu, Xinxing; Wang, Yuhong

2017-12-04

The overall entropy method is used to evaluate the development level of the logistics industry in the city based on a mechanism analysis of the spillover effect of the development of the logistics industry on economic growth, according to the panel data of 26 cities in the Yangtze River delta. On this basis, the paper uses the spatial durbin model to study the direct impact of the development of the logistics industry on economic growth and the spatial spillover effect. The results show that the direct impact coefficient of the development of the logistics industry in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration on local economic growth is 0.092, and the significant spatial spillover effect on the economic growth in the surrounding area is 0.197. Compared with the labor force input, capital investment and the degree of opening to the world, and government functions, the logistics industry's direct impact coefficient is the largest, other than capital investment; the coefficient of the spillover effect is higher than other control variables, making it a "strong engine" of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration economic growth.

Reflections on the development of health economics in low- and middle-income countries

PubMed Central

Mills, Anne

2014-01-01

Health economics is a relatively new discipline, though its antecedents can be traced back to William Petty FRS (1623–1687). In high-income countries, the academic discipline and scientific literature have grown rapidly since the 1960s. In low- and middle-income countries, the growth of health economics has been strongly influenced by trends in health policy, especially among the international and bilateral agencies involved in supporting health sector development. Valuable and influential research has been done in areas such as cost–benefit and cost-effectiveness analysis, financing of healthcare, healthcare provision, and health systems analysis, but there has been insufficient questioning of the relevance of theories and policy recommendations in the rich world literature to the circumstances of poorer countries. Characteristics such as a country's economic structure, strength of political and social institutions, management capacity, and dependence on external agencies, mean that theories and models cannot necessarily be transferred between settings. Recent innovations in the health economics literature on low- and middle-income countries indicate how health economics can be shaped to provide more relevant advice for policy. For this to be taken further, it is critical that such countries develop stronger capacity for health economics within their universities and research institutes, with greater local commitment of funding. PMID:25009059

Associations between forest characteristics and socio-economic development: a case study from Portugal.

PubMed

Ribeiro, Sónia Carvalho; Lovett, Andrew

2009-07-01

The integration of socio-economic and environmental objectives is a major challenge in developing strategies for sustainable landscapes. We investigated associations between socio-economic variables, landscape metrics and measures of forest condition in the context of Portugal. The main goals of the study were to 1) investigate relationships between forest conditions and measures of socio-economic development at national and regional scales, 2) test the hypothesis that a systematic variation in forest landscape metrics occurs according to the stage of socio-economic development and, 3) assess the extent to which landscape metrics can inform strategies to enhance forest sustainability. A ranking approach and statistical techniques such as Principal Component Analysis were used to achieve these objectives. Relationships between socio-economic characteristics, landscape metrics and measures of forest condition were only significant in the regional analysis of municipalities in Northern Portugal. Landscape metrics for different tree species displayed significant variations across socio-economic groups of municipalities and these differences were consistent with changes in characteristics suggested by the forest transition model. The use of metrics also helped inform place-specific strategies to improve forest management, though it was also apparent that further work was required to better incorporate differences in forest functions into sustainability planning.

3D inelastic analysis methods for hot section components

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dame, L. T.; Chen, P. C.; Hartle, M. S.; Huang, H. T.

1985-01-01

The objective is to develop analytical tools capable of economically evaluating the cyclic time dependent plasticity which occurs in hot section engine components in areas of strain concentration resulting from the combination of both mechanical and thermal stresses. Three models were developed. A simple model performs time dependent inelastic analysis using the power law creep equation. The second model is the classical model of Professors Walter Haisler and David Allen of Texas A and M University. The third model is the unified model of Bodner, Partom, et al. All models were customized for linear variation of loads and temperatures with all material properties and constitutive models being temperature dependent.

Water quality and emergy evaluation of two freshwater aquacultural systems for eutrophic water in the Controlling by Biological Chains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xi, L. M.; Liu, C. Q.; Liu, D. F.; Huang, W. L.; Sun, Y.

2017-08-01

According to the ecological restoration theory, this experiment establishes aquaculture systems controlled by biological chains in both Xiaoxidian area and Dujiadian area of Baiyangdian Lake separately in order to improve the environment and bring economic benefits. The appearance of Emergy Theory provides a new method for the quantitative analysis of ecological economic system. Based on the analysis of Emergy Theory, this thesis compares the eco-economic systems under different polyculture models between Xiaoxidian area and Dujiadian area. The result demonstrates that Xiaoxidian ecological system is of high Emergy Transformity with higher emergy output and economic income per unit area compared with Dujiadian area. While Dujiadian area has higher Emergy Yield Rate and lower Environment Load Rate. So Dujiadian area is more sustainable due to the overload non-renewable energy of Xiaoxidian area devoted by human. Therefore, it will be better if we adjust and optimize the management of aquaculture system in Xiaoxidian area in order to find a stable equilibrium point between environmental sustainability and economic benefits.

Pandemic recovery analysis using the dynamic inoperability input-output model.

PubMed

Santos, Joost R; Orsi, Mark J; Bond, Erik J

2009-12-01

Economists have long conceptualized and modeled the inherent interdependent relationships among different sectors of the economy. This concept paved the way for input-output modeling, a methodology that accounts for sector interdependencies governing the magnitude and extent of ripple effects due to changes in the economic structure of a region or nation. Recent extensions to input-output modeling have enhanced the model's capabilities to account for the impact of an economic perturbation; two such examples are the inoperability input-output model((1,2)) and the dynamic inoperability input-output model (DIIM).((3)) These models introduced sector inoperability, or the inability to satisfy as-planned production levels, into input-output modeling. While these models provide insights for understanding the impacts of inoperability, there are several aspects of the current formulation that do not account for complexities associated with certain disasters, such as a pandemic. This article proposes further enhancements to the DIIM to account for economic productivity losses resulting primarily from workforce disruptions. A pandemic is a unique disaster because the majority of its direct impacts are workforce related. The article develops a modeling framework to account for workforce inoperability and recovery factors. The proposed workforce-explicit enhancements to the DIIM are demonstrated in a case study to simulate a pandemic scenario in the Commonwealth of Virginia.

Cost-effectiveness of a quality improvement programme to reduce central line-associated bloodstream infections in intensive care units in the USA

PubMed Central

Herzer, Kurt R; Niessen, Louis; Constenla, Dagna O; Ward, William J; Pronovost, Peter J

2014-01-01

Objective To assess the cost-effectiveness of a multifaceted quality improvement programme focused on reducing central line-associated bloodstream infections in intensive care units. Design Cost-effectiveness analysis using a decision tree model to compare programme to non-programme intensive care units. Setting USA. Population Adult patients in the intensive care unit. Costs Economic costs of the programme and of central line-associated bloodstream infections were estimated from the perspective of the hospital and presented in 2013 US dollars. Main outcome measures Central line-associated bloodstream infections prevented, deaths averted due to central line-associated bloodstream infections prevented, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis was performed. Results Compared with current practice, the programme is strongly dominant and reduces bloodstream infections and deaths at no additional cost. The probabilistic sensitivity analysis showed that there was an almost 80% probability that the programme reduces bloodstream infections and the infections’ economic costs to hospitals. The opportunity cost of a bloodstream infection to a hospital was the most important model parameter in these analyses. Conclusions This multifaceted quality improvement programme, as it is currently implemented by hospitals on an increasingly large scale in the USA, likely reduces the economic costs of central line-associated bloodstream infections for US hospitals. Awareness among hospitals about the programme's benefits should enhance implementation. The programme's implementation has the potential to substantially reduce morbidity, mortality and economic costs associated with central line-associated bloodstream infections. PMID:25256190

Trajectories of Work Disability and Economic Insecurity Approaching Retirement.

PubMed

Shuey, Kim M; Willson, Andrea E

2017-07-08

In this article, we examine the connection between trajectories of work disability and economic precarity in late midlife. We conceptualize work disability as a possible mechanism linking early and later life economic disadvantage. We model trajectories of work disability characterized by timing and stability for a cohort of Baby Boomers (22-32 in 1981) using 32 years of data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics and latent class analysis. Measures of childhood disadvantage are included as predictors of work disability trajectories, which are subsequently included in logistic regression models predicting four economic outcomes (poverty, asset poverty, home ownership, and pension ownership) at ages 54-64. Childhood disadvantage selected individuals into five distinct classes of work disability that differed in timing and stability. All of the disability trajectories were associated with an increased risk of economic insecurity in late midlife compared to the never work disabled. This study contributes to the aging literature through its incorporation of the early life origins of pathways of disability and their links to economic outcomes approaching retirement. Findings suggest work disability is anchored in early life disadvantage and is associated with economic insecurity later in life. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Evaluation of the influence of economic groups on the efficiency and quality of service of water companies: an empirical approach for Chile.

PubMed

Molinos-Senante, María; Farías, Rodrigo

2018-06-04

The privatization of water and sewerage services (WSS) has led to the foundation of water economic groups, which integrate several water companies and have gained notable importance at the global level. In the framework of benchmarking studies, there are no prior studies exploring the impact that economic groups have on the efficiency and quality of service provided by water companies. This study investigates, for the first time, whether the membership of water companies in an economic group influences their performance. Quantity- and quality-adjusted efficiency scores were computed using data envelopment analysis models. An empirical application was developed for the Chilean water industry since most of their water companies are private and belong to an economic group. The results show that independent water companies provide WSS with better quality than do water companies that belong to an economic group. From a statistical point of view, it was evident that membership in an economic group impacts both the quantity- and quality-adjusted efficiency scores of water companies. The results of this study illustrate that applying the model-firm regulation to the Chilean water industry has significant drawbacks that should be addressed by the water regulator to promote the long-term sustainability of the water industry.

The economic value added (EVA) resulting from medical care of functional amblyopia, strabismus, (pathologies of binocular vision) and asthma.

PubMed

Beauchamp, Cynthia L; Felius, Joost; Beauchamp, George R

2010-01-01

Value analysis in health care calculates the economic value added (EVA) that results from improvements in health and health care. Our purpose was to develop an EVA model and to apply the model to typical and hypothetical (instantaneous and perfect) cures for amblyopia, surgical strabismus and asthma, as another, but non-ophthalmological disease standard for comparison, in the United States. The model is based on changes in utility and longevity, the associated incremental costs, and an estimate of the value of life. Univariate sensitivity analyses were performed to arrive at a plausible range of outcomes. For the United States, the EVA for current practice amblyopia care is 12.9B dollars (billion) per year, corresponding to a return on investment (ROI) of 10.4% per yr. With substantial increases in investment aimed at maximal improvement ("perfect cure"), the EVA is 32.7B per yr, with ROI of 5.3% per yr. The EVA for typical surgical strabismus care is 10.3B per yr. A perfect cure may yield EVA of 9.6B per yr. The EVA for asthma is 1317B per yr (ROI 20.4% per yr.., while a perfect cure may yield EVA of 110 B per yr. Sensitivity analysis demonstrated the relatively large effects of incidence, utility, and longevity, while incremental costs have a relatively minor effect on the EVA. The economic value added by improvements in patient-centered outcomes is very large. Failing to make the necessary investments in research, prevention, detection, prompt treatment and rehabilitation of these diseases, at virtually any conceivable cost, appears economically, medically, morally and ethically deficient and consequently wasteful at very least economically for our society.

Supermarket and fast-food outlet exposure in Copenhagen: associations with socio-economic and demographic characteristics.

PubMed

Svastisalee, Chalida M; Nordahl, Helene; Glümer, Charlotte; Holstein, Bjørn E; Powell, Lisa M; Due, Pernille

2011-09-01

To investigate whether exposure to fast-food outlets and supermarkets is socio-economically patterned in the city of Copenhagen. The study was based on a cross-sectional multivariate approach to examine the association between the number of fast-food outlets and supermarkets and neighbourhood-level socio-economic indicators. Food business addresses were obtained from commercial and public business locators and geocoded using a geographic information system for all neighbourhoods in the city of Copenhagen (n 400). The regression of counts of fast-food outlets and supermarkets v. indicators of socio-economic status (percentage of recent immigrants, percentage without a high-school diploma, percentage of the population under 35 years of age and average household income in Euros) was performed using negative binomial analysis. Copenhagen, Denmark. The unit of analysis was neighbourhood (n 400). In the fully adjusted models, income was not a significant predictor for supermarket exposure. However, neighbourhoods with low and mid-low income were associated with significantly fewer fast-food outlets. Using backwise deletion from the fully adjusted models, low income remained significantly associated with fast-food outlet exposure (rate ratio = 0·66-0·80) in the final model. In the city of Copenhagen, there was no evidence of spatial patterning of supermarkets by income. However, we detected a trend in the exposure to fast-food outlets, such that neighbourhoods in the lowest income quartile had fewer fast-food outlets than higher-income neighbourhoods. These findings have similarities with studies conducted in the UK, but not in the USA. The results suggest there may be socio-economic factors other than income associated with food exposure in Europe.

Economic Evaluation of Global Endometrial Ablation Versus Inpatient and Outpatient Hysterectomy for Treatment of Abnormal Uterine Bleeding: US Commercial and Medicaid Payer Perspectives.

PubMed

Miller, Jeffrey D; Bonafede, Machaon M; Cai, Qian; Pohlman, Scott K; Troeger, Kathleen A; Cholkeri-Singh, Aarathi

2018-03-01

Every year, abnormal uterine bleeding (AUB) exacts a heavy toll on women's health and leads to high costs for the US health care system. The literature shows that endometrial ablation results in fewer complications, shorter recovery and lower costs than more commonly performed hysterectomy procedures. The objective of this study was to model clinical-economic outcomes, budget impact, and cost-effectiveness of global endometrial ablation (GEA) versus outpatient hysterectomy (OPH) and inpatient hysterectomy (IPH) procedures. A decision tree, state-transition (semi-Markov) economic model was developed to simulate 3 hypothetical cohorts of women who received surgical treatment for AUB (GEA, OPH, and IPH) over 1, 2, and 3 years to evaluate clinical and economic outcomes for GEA vs. OPH and GEA vs. IPH. Two versions of the model were created to reflect both commercial health care payer and US Medicaid perspectives, and analyses were conducted for both payer types. Total health care costs in the first year after GEA were substantially lower compared with those for IPH and OPH. Budget impact analysis results showed that increasing GEA utilization yields total annual cost savings of about $906,000 for a million-member commercial health plan and about $152,000 in cost savings for a typical-sized state Medicaid plan with 1.4 million members. Cost-effectiveness analysis results for both perspectives showed GEA as economically dominant (conferring greater benefit at lower cost) over both OPH and IPH in the 1-year commercial scenario. This study demonstrates that, for some patients, GEA may prove to be a safe, uterus-sparing, cost-effective alternative to OPH and IPH for the surgical treatment of AUB.

Statistical and Economic Techniques for Site-specific Nematode Management.

PubMed

Liu, Zheng; Griffin, Terry; Kirkpatrick, Terrence L

2014-03-01

Recent advances in precision agriculture technologies and spatial statistics allow realistic, site-specific estimation of nematode damage to field crops and provide a platform for the site-specific delivery of nematicides within individual fields. This paper reviews the spatial statistical techniques that model correlations among neighboring observations and develop a spatial economic analysis to determine the potential of site-specific nematicide application. The spatial econometric methodology applied in the context of site-specific crop yield response contributes to closing the gap between data analysis and realistic site-specific nematicide recommendations and helps to provide a practical method of site-specifically controlling nematodes.

Health Economic Analysis of Antiplatelet Therapy for Acute Coronary Syndromes in the Context of Five Eastern Asian Countries.

PubMed

Wu, Bin; Tobe, Ruoyan Gai; Liu, Yuchen; He, Ben

2018-04-30

The economic outcomes of dual antiplatelet therapy in East Asian patients are still unclear. We aimed to evaluate the economic outcomes of ticagrelor versus clopidogrel for patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS) in China, Japan, Korea, Taiwan and Hong Kong. A two-phase model consisting of a 1-year decision tree and a lifetime Markov model was used to estimate the economic outcomes. The data from the East Asian subgroup of Platelet Inhibition and Patient Outcomes (PLATO) and PHILO studies were used for the calculation of the events rate for ticagrelor and clopidogrel in the first 12 months, whereas the costs were obtained from East Asian sources and utility from the published literature. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to test model robustness. Ticagrelor showed the marginal lifetime quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) of 0.0050, 0.0091, 0.0107, 0.0050, and 0.0050 in China, Japan, Korea, Taiwan, and Hong Kong compared with clopidogrel, with marginal healthcare costs of (all values in US dollars) $562, $595, $975, $611, and $672, respectively. The marginal cost per QALY gained with ticagrelor was $112,051, $65,692, $91,207, $121,838, and $133,953 from a public healthcare system perspective of China, Japan, Korea, Taiwan, and Hong Kong, respectively. The sensitivity analysis showed consistent results. Treatment of ACS for 12 months with ticagrelor is not a cost-effective option for the prevention of thrombotic events in East Asia.

Flexibility in flood management design: proactive planning under uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smet, K.; de Neufville, R.; van der Vlist, M.

2016-12-01

This paper presents a value-enhancing approach for proactive planning and design of long-lived flood management infrastructure given uncertain future flooding threats. Designing infrastructure that can be adapted over time is a method to safeguard the efficacy of current design decisions given future uncertainties. We explore the value of embedding "options" in a physical structure, where an option is the right but not the obligation to do something at a later date (e.g. over-dimensioning a floodwall foundation now facilitates a future height addition in response to observed increases in sea level; building extra pump bays in a drainage pumping station enables the easy addition of pumping capacity whenever increased precipitation warrants an expansion.) The proposed approach couples a simulation model that captures future climate induced changes to the hydrologic operating environment of a structure, with an economic model that estimates the lifetime economic performance of alternative investment strategies. The economic model uses Real "In" Options analysis, a type of cash flow analysis that quantifies the implicit value of options and the flexibility they provide. We demonstrate the approach using replacement planning for the multi-functional pumping station IJmuiden on the North Sea Canal in the Netherlands. The analysis models flexibility in design decisions, varying the size and specific options included in the new structure. Results indicate that the incorporation of options within the structural design has the potential to improve its economic performance, as compared to more traditional, "build it once and build it big" designs where flexibility is not an explicit design criterion. The added value resulting from the incorporation of flexibility varies with the range of future conditions considered, and the specific options examined. This approach could be applied to explore investment strategies for the design of other flood management structures, as well as be expanded to look more at flexibility within an infrastructure network rather than a single structure. Flexibility in flood management design:proactive planning under uncertainty

The ?new? economics of education: Towards a ?unified? macro/micro-educational planning policy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kraft, Richard H.; Nakib, Yasser

1991-09-01

What has become the "classical" theory of the economics of education, first systematically laid down in the 1960s, is based on analysis of measurable variables. The concept of investment in human capital supposes that higher funding for education will increase productivity and income. Estimates of cost-effectiveness and returns to investment based on notional income foregone, have been features of this approach. Now, with a growing realization of the failure of the classical theory to deal with "realities" in the education market and to offer effective policy recommendations, other ideologies have again become more visible. The lack of attention given to the labor demand side of the education-earnings equation, and the inability of theoretical models to capture all complex variables in all sectors of the labor market, have been criticized. Also, it has again been recognized that education has a socialization role. The phenomena of undereducation and over-education have been investigated, and attention has been given to the implications of social conflicts and structural changes in the labor market. If human competences are to be developed, it is necessary to look beyond the classical model of the economics of education to microeconomic analysis and to economic and social conditions which will act as incentives.

Prioritizing conservation activities using reserve site selection methods and population viability analysis.

PubMed

Newbold, Stephen C; Siikamäki, Juha

2009-10-01

In recent years a large literature on reserve site selection (RSS) has developed at the interface between ecology, operations research, and environmental economics. Reserve site selection models use numerical optimization techniques to select sites for a network of nature reserves for protecting biodiversity. In this paper, we develop a population viability analysis (PVA) model for salmon and incorporate it into an RSS framework for prioritizing conservation activities in upstream watersheds. We use spawner return data for three closely related salmon stocks in the upper Columbia River basin and estimates of the economic costs of watershed protection from NOAA to illustrate the framework. We compare the relative cost-effectiveness of five alternative watershed prioritization methods, based on various combinations of biological and economic information. Prioritization based on biological benefit-economic cost comparisons and accounting for spatial interdependencies among watersheds substantially outperforms other more heuristic methods. When using this best-performing prioritization method, spending 10% of the cost of protecting all upstream watersheds yields 79% of the biological benefits (increase in stock persistence) from protecting all watersheds, compared to between 20% and 64% for the alternative methods. We also find that prioritization based on either costs or benefits alone can lead to severe reductions in cost-effectiveness.

Process simulation and techno economic analysis of renewable diesel production via catalytic decarboxylation of rubber seed oil - A case study in Malaysia.

PubMed

Cheah, Kin Wai; Yusup, Suzana; Gurdeep Singh, Haswin Kaur; Uemura, Yoshimitsu; Lam, Hon Loong

2017-12-01

This work describes the economic feasibility of hydroprocessed diesel fuel production via catalytic decarboxylation of rubber seed oil in Malaysia. A comprehensive techno-economic assessment is developed using Aspen HYSYS V8.0 software for process modelling and economic cost estimates. The profitability profile and minimum fuels selling price of this synthetic fuels production using rubber seed oil as biomass feedstock are assessed under a set of assumptions for what can be plausibly be achieved in 10-years framework. In this study, renewable diesel processing facility is modelled to be capable of processing 65,000 L of inedible oil per day and producing a total of 20 million litre of renewable diesel product per annual with assumed annual operational days of 347. With the forecasted renewable diesel retail price of 3.64 RM per kg, the pioneering renewable diesel project investment offers an assuring return of investment of 12.1% and net return as high as 1.35 million RM. Sensitivity analysis conducted showed that renewable diesel production cost is most sensitive to rubber seed oil price and hydrogen gas price, reflecting on the relative importance of feedstock prices in the overall profitability profile. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Smith, Braeton J.; Shaneyfelt, Calvin R.

A NISAC study on the economic effects of a hypothetical H1N1 pandemic was done in order to assess the differential impacts at the state and industry levels given changes in absenteeism, mortality, and consumer spending rates. Part of the analysis was to determine if there were any direct relationships between pandemic impacts and gross domestic product (GDP) losses. Multiple regression analysis was used because it shows very clearly which predictors are significant in their impact on GDP. GDP impact data taken from the REMI PI+ (Regional Economic Models, Inc., Policy Insight +) model was used to serve as the responsemore » variable. NISAC economists selected the average absenteeism rate, mortality rate, and consumer spending categories as the predictor variables. Two outliers were found in the data: Nevada and Washington, DC. The analysis was done twice, with the outliers removed for the second analysis. The second set of regressions yielded a cleaner model, but for the purposes of this study, the analysts deemed it not as useful because particular interest was placed on determining the differential impacts to states. Hospitals and accommodation were found to be the most important predictors of percentage change in GDP among the consumer spending variables.« less

Volume of the steady-state space of financial flows in a monetary stock-flow-consistent model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hazan, Aurélien

2017-05-01

We show that a steady-state stock-flow consistent macro-economic model can be represented as a Constraint Satisfaction Problem (CSP). The set of solutions is a polytope, which volume depends on the constraints applied and reveals the potential fragility of the economic circuit, with no need to study the dynamics. Several methods to compute the volume are compared, inspired by operations research methods and the analysis of metabolic networks, both exact and approximate. We also introduce a random transaction matrix, and study the particular case of linear flows with respect to money stocks.

The economic role of the Emergency Department in the health care continuum: applying Michael Porter's five forces model to Emergency Medicine.

PubMed

Pines, Jesse M

2006-05-01

Emergency Medicine plays a vital role in the health care continuum in the United States. Michael Porters' five forces model of industry analysis provides an insight into the economics of emergency care by showing how the forces of supplier power, buyer power, threat of substitution, barriers to entry, and internal rivalry affect Emergency Medicine. Illustrating these relationships provides a view into the complexities of the emergency care industry and offers opportunities for Emergency Departments, groups of physicians, and the individual emergency physician to maximize the relationship with other market players.

Costs of trastuzumab in combination with chemotherapy for HER2-positive advanced gastric or gastroesophageal junction cancer: an economic evaluation in the Chinese context.

PubMed

Wu, Bin; Ye, Ming; Chen, Huafeng; Shen, Jinfang F

2012-02-01

Adding trastuzumab to a conventional regimen of chemotherapy can improve survival in patients with human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2)-positive advanced gastric or gastroesophageal junction (GEJ) cancer, but the economic impact of this practice is unknown. The purpose of this cost-effectiveness analysis was to estimate the effects of adding trastuzumab to standard chemotherapy in patients with HER2-positive advanced gastric or GEJ cancer on health and economic outcomes in China. A Markov model was developed to simulate the clinical course of typical patients with HER2-positive advanced gastric or GEJ cancer. Five-year quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), costs, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were estimated. Model inputs were derived from the published literature and government sources. Direct costs were estimated from the perspective of Chinese society. One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted. On baseline analysis, the addition of trastuzumab increased cost and QALY by $56,004.30 (year-2010 US $) and 0.18, respectively, relative to conventional chemotherapy, resulting in an ICER of $251,667.10/QALY gained. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses supported that the addition of trastuzumab was not cost-effective. Budgetary impact analysis estimated that the annual increase in fiscal expenditures would be ~$1 billion. On univariate sensitivity analysis, the median overall survival time for conventional chemotherapy was the most influential factor with respect to the robustness of the model. The findings from the present analysis suggest that the addition of trastuzumab to conventional chemotherapy might not be cost-effective in patients with HER2-positive advanced gastric or GEJ cancer. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier HS Journals, Inc. All rights reserved.

[Environmental quality assessment of regional agro-ecosystem in Loess Plateau].

PubMed

Wang, Limei; Meng, Fanping; Zheng, Jiyong; Wang, Zhonglin

2004-03-01

Based on the detection and analysis of the contamination status of agro-ecosystem with apple-crops intercropping as the dominant cropping model in Loess Plateau, the individual factor and comprehensive environmental quality were assessed by multilevel fuzzy synthetic evaluation model, analytical hierarchy process(AHP), and improved standard weight deciding method. The results showed that the quality of soil, water and agricultural products was grade I, the social economical environmental quality was grade II, the ecological environmental quality was grade III, and the comprehensive environmental quality was grade I. The regional agro-ecosystem dominated by apple-crops intercropping was not the best model for the ecological benefits, but had the better social economical benefits.

Comparing the costs of three prostate cancer follow-up strategies: a cost minimisation analysis.

PubMed

Pearce, Alison M; Ryan, Fay; Drummond, Frances J; Thomas, Audrey Alforque; Timmons, Aileen; Sharp, Linda

2016-02-01

Prostate cancer follow-up is traditionally provided by clinicians in a hospital setting. Growing numbers of prostate cancer survivors mean that this model of care may not be economically sustainable, and a number of alternative approaches have been suggested. The aim of this study was to develop an economic model to compare the costs of three alternative strategies for prostate cancer follow-up in Ireland-the European Association of Urology (EAU) guidelines, the National Institute of Health Care Excellence (NICE) guidelines and current practice. A cost minimisation analysis was performed using a Markov model with three arms (EAU guidelines, NICE guidelines and current practice) comparing follow-up for men with prostate cancer treated with curative intent. The model took a health care payer's perspective over a 10-year time horizon. Current practice was the least cost efficient arm of the model, the NICE guidelines were most cost efficient (74 % of current practice costs) and the EAU guidelines intermediate (92 % of current practice costs). For the 2562 new cases of prostate cancer diagnosed in 2009, the Irish health care system could have saved €760,000 over a 10-year period if the NICE guidelines were adopted. This is the first study investigating costs of prostate cancer follow-up in the Irish setting. While economic models are designed as a simplification of complex real-world situations, these results suggest potential for significant savings within the Irish health care system associated with implementation of alternative models of prostate cancer follow-up care.

Cost-effectiveness and budget impact analyses of a colorectal cancer screening programme in a high adenoma prevalence scenario using MISCAN-Colon microsimulation model.

PubMed

Arrospide, Arantzazu; Idigoras, Isabel; Mar, Javier; de Koning, Harry; van der Meulen, Miriam; Soto-Gordoa, Myriam; Martinez-Llorente, Jose Miguel; Portillo, Isabel; Arana-Arri, Eunate; Ibarrondo, Oliver; Lansdorp-Vogelaar, Iris

2018-04-25

The Basque Colorectal Cancer Screening Programme began in 2009 and the implementation has been complete since 2013. Faecal immunological testing was used for screening in individuals between 50 and 69 years old. Colorectal Cancer in Basque country is characterized by unusual epidemiological features given that Colorectal Cancer incidence is similar to other European countries while adenoma prevalence is higher. The object of our study was to economically evaluate the programme via cost-effectiveness and budget impact analyses with microsimulation models. We applied the Microsimulation Screening Analysis (MISCAN)-Colon model to predict trends in Colorectal Cancer incidence and mortality and to quantify the short- and long-term effects and costs of the Basque Colorectal Cancer Screening Programme. The model was calibrated to the Basque demographics in 2008 and age-specific Colorectal Cancer incidence data in the Basque Cancer Registry from 2005 to 2008 before the screening begun. The model was also calibrated to the high adenoma prevalence observed for the Basque population in a previously published study. The multi-cohort approach used in the model included all the cohorts in the programme during 30 years of implementation, with lifetime follow-up. Unit costs were obtained from the Basque Health Service and both cost-effectiveness analysis and budget impact analysis were carried out. The goodness-of-fit of the model adaptation to observed programme data was evidence of validation. In the cost-effectiveness analysis, the savings from treatment were larger than the added costs due to screening. Thus, the Basque programme was dominant compared to no screening, as life expectancy increased by 29.3 days per person. The savings in the budget analysis appeared 10 years after the complete implementation of the programme. The average annual budget was €73.4 million from year 2023 onwards. This economic evaluation showed a screening intervention with a major health gain that also produced net savings when a long follow-up was used to capture the late economic benefit. The number of colonoscopies required was high but remain within the capacity of the Basque Health Service. So far in Europe, no other population Colorectal Cancer screening programme has been evaluated by budget impact analysis.

CO2, energy and economy interactions: A multisectoral, dynamic, computable general equilibrium model for Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kang, Yoonyoung

While vast resources have been invested in the development of computational models for cost-benefit analysis for the "whole world" or for the largest economies (e.g. United States, Japan, Germany), the remainder have been thrown together into one model for the "rest of the world." This study presents a multi-sectoral, dynamic, computable general equilibrium (CGE) model for Korea. This research evaluates the impacts of controlling COsb2 emissions using a multisectoral CGE model. This CGE economy-energy-environment model analyzes and quantifies the interactions between COsb2, energy and economy. This study examines interactions and influences of key environmental policy components: applied economic instruments, emission targets, and environmental tax revenue recycling methods. The most cost-effective economic instrument is the carbon tax. The economic effects discussed include impacts on main macroeconomic variables (in particular, economic growth), sectoral production, and the energy market. This study considers several aspects of various COsb2 control policies, such as the basic variables in the economy: capital stock and net foreign debt. The results indicate emissions might be stabilized in Korea at the expense of economic growth and with dramatic sectoral allocation effects. Carbon dioxide emissions stabilization could be achieved to the tune of a 600 trillion won loss over a 20 year period (1990-2010). The average annual real GDP would decrease by 2.10% over the simulation period compared to the 5.87% increase in the Business-as-Usual. This model satisfies an immediate need for a policy simulation model for Korea and provides the basic framework for similar economies. It is critical to keep the central economic question at the forefront of any discussion regarding environmental protection. How much will reform cost, and what does the economy stand to gain and lose? Without this model, the policy makers might resort to hesitation or even blind speculation. With the model, the policy makers gain the power of prediction. This model serves as a tool for constructing the most effective strategy for Korea.

Comparative techno-economic analysis of steam explosion, dilute sulfuric acid, ammonia fiber explosion and biological pretreatments of corn stover.

PubMed

Baral, Nawa Raj; Shah, Ajay

2017-05-01

Pretreatment is required to destroy recalcitrant structure of lignocelluloses and then transform into fermentable sugars. This study assessed techno-economics of steam explosion, dilute sulfuric acid, ammonia fiber explosion and biological pretreatments, and identified bottlenecks and operational targets for process improvement. Techno-economic models of these pretreatment processes for a cellulosic biorefinery of 113.5 million liters butanol per year excluding fermentation and wastewater treatment sections were developed using a modelling software-SuperPro Designer. Experimental data of the selected pretreatment processes based on corn stover were gathered from recent publications, and used for this analysis. Estimated sugar production costs ($/kg) via steam explosion, dilute sulfuric acid, ammonia fiber explosion and biological methods were 0.43, 0.42, 0.65 and 1.41, respectively. The results suggest steam explosion and sulfuric acid pretreatment methods might be good alternatives at present state of technology and other pretreatment methods require research and development efforts to be competitive with these pretreatment methods. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Towards an integrated economic assessment of climate change impacts on agriculture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lotze-Campen, H.; Piontek, F.; Stevanovic, M.; Popp, A.; Bauer, N.; Dietrich, J.; Mueller, C.; Schmitz, C.

2012-12-01

For a detailed understanding of the effects of climate change on global agricultural production systems, it is essential to consider the variability of climate change patterns as projected by General Circulation Models (GCMs), their bio-physical impact on crops and the response in land-use patterns and markets. So far, approaches that account for the interaction of bio-physical and economic impacts are largely lacking. We present an integrative analysis by using a soft-coupled system of a biophysical impact model (LPJmL, Bondeau et al. 2007), an economically driven land use model (MAgPIE, Lotze-Campen et al. 2008) and an integrated assessment model (ReMIND-R, Leimbach et al. 2010) to study climate change impacts and economic damages in the agricultural sector. First, the dynamic global vegetation and hydrology model LPJmL is used to derive climate change impacts on crop yields for wheat, maize, soy, rice and other major crops. A range of different climate projections is used, taken from the dataset provided by the Intersectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP, www.isi-mip.org), which bias-corrected the latest CMIP5 climate data (Taylor et al. 2011). Crop yield impacts cover scenarios with and without CO2 fertilization as well as different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and different GCMs. With increasing temperature towards the end of the century yields generally decrease in tropical and subtropical regions, while they tend to benefit in higher latitudes. LPJmL results have been compared to other global crop models in the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP, www.agmip.org). Second, changes in crop yields are analysed with the spatially explicit agro-economic model MAgPIE, which covers their interaction with economic development and changes in food demand. Changes in prices as well as welfare changes of producer and consumer surplus are taken as economic indicators. Due to climate-change related reductions in crop productivity, producers in some regions face adaptation costs through either intensification or spatial expansion of agricultural production. Impacts are relatively small in the first half of the century, but intensify later. Additional adaptation options are investigated through the use of different levels of trade liberalization in the model (Schmitz et al. 2012). MAgPIE results also have been compared to other global agro-economic models in AgMIP. Third, climate-induced changes are aggregated for major world regions as the sum of producer and consumer surplus across spatial units. Different equity weighting schemes are investigated based on Frankhauser et al. (1997), in order to take spatial differences in population density and economic wealth into account. Finally, agricultural damages are implemented into the macro-economic framework of ReMIND-R. This approach of a detailed study of climate change impacts along the effect chain from bio-physical impacts to economic assessment is an important next step in the development of damage assessments with regard to long-term climate change. It will be extended in the future to other impact areas. The separate models involved have benefitted from checks for robustness in the course of AgMIP and other model intercomparison exercises.