An Integrated Method to Analyze Farm Vulnerability to Climatic and Economic Variability According to Farm Configurations and Farmers’ Adaptations

PubMed Central

Martin, Guillaume; Magne, Marie-Angélina; Cristobal, Magali San

2017-01-01

The need to adapt to decrease farm vulnerability to adverse contextual events has been extensively discussed on a theoretical basis. We developed an integrated and operational method to assess farm vulnerability to multiple and interacting contextual changes and explain how this vulnerability can best be reduced according to farm configurations and farmers’ technical adaptations over time. Our method considers farm vulnerability as a function of the raw measurements of vulnerability variables (e.g., economic efficiency of production), the slope of the linear regression of these measurements over time, and the residuals of this linear regression. The last two are extracted from linear mixed models considering a random regression coefficient (an intercept common to all farms), a global trend (a slope common to all farms), a random deviation from the general mean for each farm, and a random deviation from the general trend for each farm. Among all possible combinations, the lowest farm vulnerability is obtained through a combination of high values of measurements, a stable or increasing trend and low variability for all vulnerability variables considered. Our method enables relating the measurements, trends and residuals of vulnerability variables to explanatory variables that illustrate farm exposure to climatic and economic variability, initial farm configurations and farmers’ technical adaptations over time. We applied our method to 19 cattle (beef, dairy, and mixed) farms over the period 2008–2013. Selected vulnerability variables, i.e., farm productivity and economic efficiency, varied greatly among cattle farms and across years, with means ranging from 43.0 to 270.0 kg protein/ha and 29.4–66.0% efficiency, respectively. No farm had a high level, stable or increasing trend and low residuals for both farm productivity and economic efficiency of production. Thus, the least vulnerable farms represented a compromise among measurement value, trend, and variability of both performances. No specific combination of farmers’ practices emerged for reducing cattle farm vulnerability to climatic and economic variability. In the least vulnerable farms, the practices implemented (stocking rate, input use…) were more consistent with the objective of developing the properties targeted (efficiency, robustness…). Our method can be used to support farmers with sector-specific and local insights about most promising farm adaptations. PMID:28900435

A climate responsive urban design tool: a platform to improve energy efficiency in a dry hot climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

El Dallal, Norhan; Visser, Florentine

2017-09-01

In the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, new urban developments should address the climatic conditions to improve outdoor comfort and to reduce the energy consumption of buildings. This article describes a design tool that supports climate responsive design for a dry hot climate. The approach takes the climate as an initiator for the conceptual urban form with a more energy-efficient urban morphology. The methodology relates the different passive strategies suitable for major climate conditions in MENA region (dry-hot) to design parameters that create the urban form. This parametric design approach is the basis for a tool that generates conceptual climate responsive urban forms so as to assist the urban designer early in the design process. Various conceptual scenarios, generated by a computational model, are the results of the proposed platform. A practical application of the approach is conducted on a New Urban Community in Aswan (Egypt), showing the economic feasibility of the resulting urban form and morphology, and the proposed tool.

Economics, ethics, and climate policy: framing the debate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Howarth, Richard B.; Monahan, Patricia A.

1996-04-01

This paper examines the economic and ethical dimensions of climate policy in light of existing knowledge of the impacts of global warming and the costs of greenhouse gas emissions abatement. We find that the criterion of economic efficiency, operationalized through cost-benefit analysis, is ill-equipped to cope with the pervasive uncertainties and issues of intergenerational fairness that characterize climate change. In contrast, the concept of sustainable development—that today's policies should ensure that future generations enjoy life opportunities undiminished relative to the present—is a normative criterion that explicitly addresses the uncertainties and distributional aspects of global environmental change. If one interprets the sustainability criterion to imply that it is morally wrong to impose catastrophic risks on unborn generations when reducing those risks would not noticeably diminish the quality of life of existing persons, a case can be made for significant steps to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

The economics and ethics of aerosol geoengineering strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goes, Marlos; Keller, Klaus; Tuana, Nancy

2010-05-01

Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are changing the Earth's climate and impose substantial risks for current and future generations. What are scientifically sound, economically viable, and ethically defendable strategies to manage these climate risks? Ratified international agreements call for a reduction of greenhouse gas emissions to avoid dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Recent proposals, however, call for a different approach: geoengineering climate by injecting aerosol precursors into the stratosphere. Published economic studies typically neglect the risks of aerosol geoengineering due to (i) a potential failure to sustain the aerosol forcing and (ii) due to potential negative impacts associated with aerosol forcings. Here we use a simple integrated assessment model of climate change to analyze potential economic impacts of aerosol geoengineering strategies over a wide range of uncertain parameters such as climate sensitivity, the economic damages due to climate change, and the economic damages due to aerosol geoengineering forcings. The simplicity of the model provides the advantages of parsimony and transparency, but it also imposes considerable caveats. For example, the analysis is based on a globally aggregated model and is hence silent on intragenerational distribution of costs and benefits. In addition, the analysis neglects the effects of future learning and is based on a simple representation of climate change impacts. We use this integrated assessment model to show three main points. First, substituting aerosol geoengineering for the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions can fail the test of economic efficiency. One key to this finding is that a failure to sustain the aerosol forcing can lead to sizeable and abrupt climatic changes. The monetary damages due to such a discontinuous aerosol geoengineering can dominate the cost-benefit analysis because the monetary damages of climate change are expected to increase with the rate of change. Second, the relative contribution of aerosol geoengineering to an economically optimal portfolio hinges critically on deeply uncertain estimates of the damages due to aerosol forcing. Even if we assume that aerosol forcing could be deployed continuously, the aerosol geoengineering does not considerably displace the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions in the simple economic optimal growth model until the damages due to the aerosol forcing are rather low. Third, deploying aerosol geoengineering may also fail an ethical test regarding issues of intergenerational justice. Substituting aerosol geoengineering for reducing greenhouse gas emissions constitutes a conscious risk transfer to future generations, for example due to the increased risk of future abrupt climate change. This risk transfer is in tension with the requirement of intergenerational justice that present generations should not create benefits for themselves in exchange for burdens on future generations.

Managing the water-energy-food nexus: Opportunities in Central Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jalilov, Shokhrukh-Mirzo; Amer, Saud A.; Ward, Frank A.

2018-02-01

This article examines impacts of infrastructure development and climate variability on economic outcomes for the Amu Darya Basin in Central Asia. It aims to identify the most economically productive mix of expanded reservoir storage for economic benefit sharing to occur, in which economic welfare of all riparians is improved. Policies examined include four combinations of storage infrastructure for each of two climate futures. An empirical optimization model is developed and applied to identify opportunities for improving the welfare of Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Afghanistan, and Turkmenistan. The analysis 1) characterizes politically constrained and economically optimized water-use patterns for these combinations of expanded reservoir storage capacity, 2) describes Pareto-Improving packages of expanded storage capacity that could raise economic welfare for all four riparians, and accounts for impacts for each of two climate scenarios. Results indicate that a combination of targeted water storage infrastructure and efficient water allocation could produce outcomes for which the discounted net present value of benefits are favorable for each riparian. Results identify a framework to provide economic motivation for all riparians to cooperate through development of water storage infrastructure. Our findings illustrate the principle that development of water infrastructure can expand the negotiation space by which all communities can gain economic benefits in the face of limited water supply. Still, despite our optimistic findings, patient and deliberate negotiation will be required to transform potential improvements into actual gains.

Assessing the agricultural costs of climate change: Combining results from crop and economic models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Howitt, R. E.

2016-12-01

Any perturbation to a resource system used by humans elicits both technical and behavioral changes. For agricultural production, economic criteria and their associated models are usually good predictors of human behavior in agricultural production. Estimation of the agricultural costs of climate change requires careful downscaling of global climate models to the level of agricultural regions. Plant growth models for the dominant crops are required to accurately show the full range of trade-offs and adaptation mechanisms needed to minimize the cost of climate change. Faced with the shifts in the fundamental resource base of agriculture, human behavior can either exacerbate or offset the impact of climate change on agriculture. In addition, agriculture can be an important source of increased carbon sequestration. However the effectiveness and timing of this sequestration depends on agricultural practices and farmer behavior. Plant growth models and economic models have been shown to interact in two broad fashions. First there is the direct embedding of a parametric representation plant growth simulations in the economic model production function. A second and more general approach is to have plant growth and crop process models interact with economic models as they are simulated. The development of more general wrapper programs that transfer information between models rapidly and efficiently will encourage this approach. However, this method does introduce complications in terms of matching up disparate scales both in time and space between models. Another characteristic behavioral response of agricultural production is the distinction between the intensive margin which considers the quantity of resource, for example fertilizer, used for a given crop, and the extensive margin of adjustment that measures how farmers will adjust their crop proportions in response to climate change. Ideally economic models will measure the response to both these margins of adjustment simultaneously. The paper will briefly discuss some examples of the direct embedding of results from plant growth models in economic models.

Realizing Mitigation Efficiency of European Commercial Forests by Climate Smart Forestry.

PubMed

Yousefpour, Rasoul; Augustynczik, Andrey Lessa Derci; Reyer, Christopher P O; Lasch-Born, Petra; Suckow, Felicitas; Hanewinkel, Marc

2018-01-10

European temperate and boreal forests sequester up to 12% of Europe's annual carbon emissions. Forest carbon density can be manipulated through management to maximize its climate mitigation potential, and fast-growing tree species may contribute the most to Climate Smart Forestry (CSF) compared to slow-growing hardwoods. This type of CSF takes into account not only forest resource potentials in sequestering carbon, but also the economic impact of regional forest products and discounts both variables over time. We used the process-based forest model 4 C to simulate European commercial forests' growth conditions and coupled it with an optimization algorithm to simulate the implementation of CSF for 18 European countries encompassing 68.3 million ha of forest (42.4% of total EU-28 forest area). We found a European CSF policy that could sequester 7.3-11.1 billion tons of carbon, projected to be worth 103 to 141 billion euros in the 21st century. An efficient CSF policy would allocate carbon sequestration to European countries with a lower wood price, lower labor costs, high harvest costs, or a mixture thereof to increase its economic efficiency. This policy prioritized the allocation of mitigation efforts to northern, eastern and central European countries and favored fast growing conifers Picea abies and Pinus sylvestris to broadleaves Fagus sylvatica and Quercus species.

Cleaner cooking solutions to achieve health, climate, and economic cobenefits.

PubMed

Anenberg, Susan C; Balakrishnan, Kalpana; Jetter, James; Masera, Omar; Mehta, Sumi; Moss, Jacob; Ramanathan, Veerabhadran

2013-05-07

Nearly half the world's population must rely on solid fuels such as biomass (wood, charcoal, agricultural residues, and animal dung) and coal for household energy, burning them in inefficient open fires and stoves with inadequate ventilation. Household solid fuel combustion is associated with four million premature deaths annually; contributes to forest degradation, loss of habitat and biodiversity, and climate change; and hinders social and economic progress as women and children spend hours every day collecting fuel. Several recent studies, as well as key emerging national and international efforts, are making progress toward enabling wide-scale household adoption of cleaner and more efficient stoves and fuels. While significant challenges remain, these efforts offer considerable promise to save lives, improve forest sustainability, slow climate change, and empower women around the world.

Domestic water conservation potential in Saudi Arabia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abdulrazzak, Mohammed J.; Khan, Muhammad Z. A.

1990-03-01

Domestic water conservation in arid climates can result in efficient utilization of existing water supplies. The impacts of conservation measures such as the installation of water-saving devices, water metering and pricing schemes, water rationing and public awareness programs, strict plumbing codes, penalties for wasting water, programs designed to reduce leakage from public water lines and within the home, water-efficient landscaping, economic and ethical incentives are addressed in detail. Cost savings in arid climates, with particular reference to Saudi Arabia, in relation to some conservation techniques, are presented. Water conservation technology and tentative demonstration and implementation of water conservation programs are discussed.

Climate Impact and Economic Feasibility of Solar Thermochemical Jet Fuel Production.

PubMed

Falter, Christoph; Batteiger, Valentin; Sizmann, Andreas

2016-01-05

Solar thermochemistry presents a promising option for the efficient conversion of H2O and CO2 into liquid hydrocarbon fuels using concentrated solar energy. To explore the potential of this fuel production pathway, the climate impact and economic performance are analyzed. Key drivers for the economic and ecological performance are thermochemical energy conversion efficiency, the level of solar irradiation, operation and maintenance, and the initial investment in the fuel production plant. For the baseline case of a solar tower concentrator with CO2 capture from air, jet fuel production costs of 2.23 €/L and life cycle greenhouse gas (LC GHG) emissions of 0.49 kgCO2-equiv/L are estimated. Capturing CO2 from a natural gas combined cycle power plant instead of the air reduces the production costs by 15% but leads to LC GHG emissions higher than that of conventional jet fuel. Favorable assumptions for all involved process steps (30% thermochemical energy conversion efficiency, 3000 kWh/(m(2) a) solar irradiation, low CO2 and heliostat costs) result in jet fuel production costs of 1.28 €/L at LC GHG emissions close to zero. Even lower production costs may be achieved if the commercial value of oxygen as a byproduct is considered.

Farming for a Better Climate by Improving Nitrogen Use Efficiency and Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions (FarmClim)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amon, Barbara; Winiwarter, Wilfried; Schröck, Andrea; Zechmeister-Boltenstern, Sophie; Kasper, Martina; Sigmund, Elisabeth; Schaller, Lena; Moser, Tobias; Baumgarten, Andreas; Dersch, Georg; Zethner, Gerhard; Anderl, Michael; Kitzler, Barbara

2014-05-01

The project FarmClim (Farming for a better climate) assesses impacts of agriculture on N and GHG fluxes in Austria and proposes measures for improving N efficiency and mitigating emissions, including their economic assessment. This paper focuses on animal husbandry and crop production measures, and on N2O emissions from soils. FarmClim applies national inventory reporting methods to assess Austrian NH3 and GHG fluxes in order to develop flux estimates with implementation of mitigation measures. Based on scientific literature and on the outcome of the Austrian working group agriculture and climate protection a list of potential mitigation measures has been produced: phase feeding, dairy cattle diet, biogas production. Data cover resulting production levels as well as GHG mitigation. In crop production, an optimisation potential remains with respect to N fertilization and nutrient uptake efficiency. Projected regional yield data and information on the N content of arable crops have been delivered from field experiments. These data complement official statistics and allow assessing the effect of increasing proportions of legume crops in crop rotations and reducing fertilizer input on a regional scale. Economic efficiency of measures is a crucial factor for their future implementation on commercial farms. The economic model evaluates investment costs as well as changes in direct costs, labour costs and economic yield. Biophysical modelling with Landscape DNDC allows establishing a framework to move from the current approach of applying the IPCC default emission factor for N2O emissions from soils. We select two Austrian model regions to calculate N fluxes taking into account region and management practices. Hot spots and hot moments as well as mitigation strategies are identified. Two test regions have been identified for soil emission modelling. The Marchfeld is an intensively used agricultural area in North-East Austria with very fertile soils and dry climate. The area of central Upper-Austria is characterized by heavy gley soils and higher annual precipitation (890mm). Based on site parameters, vegetation characteristics, management and meteorology, the model is able to predict C and N bio-geo-chemistry in agricultural ecosystems at site and regional scale. This is the basis for assessing further mitigation specifically focussing on the hot spots and hot moments of N emissions on a regional scale. The list of mitigation measures resulting from the project activities has been tailored to fit Austrian conditions in order to be attractive to stakeholders and farmers. Providing information on economic impacts to farms adds to the transparency of the approach taken. We expect that understanding the interest and the worries of farmers from the beginning supports creation of realistic output that can provide a strong incentive to urgently needed actions on improving farm N efficiencies.

Evaluation of Epoke Bulk Spreader for winter maintenance.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-12-01

In the current economic climate, it is imperative to maximize efficiency while minimizing costs. As a : result, ODOT is evaluating new methods to reduce expenditures in their winter maintenance budget. One : such evaluation is of the Epoke Bulk Sprea...

Clean Cities Strategic Planning White Paper: Light Duty Vehicle Fuel Economy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Saulsbury, Bo; Hopson, Dr Janet L; Greene, David

2015-04-01

Increasing the energy efficiency of motor vehicles is critical to achieving national energy goals of reduced petroleum dependence, protecting the global climate, and promoting continued economic prosperity. Even with fuel economy and greenhouse gas emissions standards and various economic incentives for clean and efficient vehicles, providing reliable and accurate fuel economy information to the public is important to achieving these goals. This white paper reviews the current status of light-duty vehicle fuel economy in the United States and the role of the Department of Energy (DOE) Clean Cities Program in disseminating fuel economy information to the public.

A National Energy-Water System Assessment Framework (NEWS): Synopsis of Stage 1 Research Strategy and Results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vorosmarty, C. J.; Miara, A.; Macknick, J.; Newmark, R. L.; Cohen, S.; Sun, Y.; Tidwell, V. C.; Corsi, F.; Melillo, J. M.; Fekete, B. M.; Proussevitch, A. A.; Glidden, S.; Suh, S.

2017-12-01

The focus of this talk is on climate adaptation and the reliability of power supply infrastructure when viewed through the lens of strategic water issues. Power supply is critically dependent upon water resources, particularly to cool thermoelectric plants, making the sector particularly sensitive to any shifts in the geography or seasonality of water supply. We report on results from an NSF-Funded Water Sustainability and Climate effort aimed at uncovering key energy and economic system vulnerabilities. We have developed the National Energy-Water System assessment framework (NEWS) to systematically evaluate: a) the performance of the nation's electricity sector under multiple climate scenarios; b) the feasibility of alternative pathways to improve climate adaptation; and, c) the impacts of energy technology and investment tradeoffs on the economic productivity, water availability and aquatic ecosystem condition. Our project combines core engineering and geophysical models (ReEDS [Regional Energy Deployment System], TP2M [Thermoelectric Power and Thermal Pollution], and WBM [Water Balance]) through unique digital "handshake" protocols that operate across different institutions and modeling platforms. Combined system outputs are fed into a regional-to-national scale economic input/output model to evaluate economic consequences of climate constraints, technology choices, and environmental regulation. The impact assessments in NEWS are carried out through a series of climate/energy policy scenario studies to 2050. We find that despite significant climate-water impacts on individual plants, the current US power supply infrastructure shows potential for adaptation to future climates by capitalizing on the size of regional power systems, grid configuration and improvements in thermal efficiencies. However, the magnitude and implications of climate-water impacts vary depending on the configuration of the future power sector. To evaluate future power supply performance, we model alternative electricity sector pathways in combination with varying climate-water conditions. Further, water-linked disruptions in electricity supply yield substantial impacts on regional economies yet system-level shocks can be attenuated through different technology mixes and infrastructure.

Efficient Use of Terrestrial Economic Services: A Case Study in South Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nguyen, T. T.; Tenhunen, J.; Hoang, V. N.; Koellner, T.; Shin, H.; Pham, V. D.; Seo, B.

2012-04-01

Understanding the linkages between social and ecological systems is crucial for managing potential responses to global change. Agricultural production requires resources, is determined by ecological processes, and results in economic goods and services for society. However, production leads at the same time to both positive and negative externalities. The externalities can be enhanced or mitigated by human behavior in management, which is mainly driven by expectations related to economic gains and losses. Ecological and economic processes are interrelated, and continuously interact in a complex manner. Therefore, understanding potential economic gains and losses in response to global change is a fundamental consideration in order to carry out well-informed decision-making. The International Research and Training Group TERRECO at the University of Bayreuth has intensively investigated ecological systems and processes in forested and agricultural landscapes as well as at regional scale in South Korea. These ongoing efforts provide a unique opportunity to examine the economic gains, losses and trade-offs that may occur with future climate and land-use change. Within this framework, we first investigated the environmental and economic efficiency of rice farms in Kangwon Province of South Korea, since rice is the most important food crop in this country. We then expanded our analysis to include dry farm highland vegetable crops in an intensively farmed region of the country, Haean Catchment. Our main objectives are (1) to categorize different types of farms, (2) determine their economic and environmental efficiency, and (3) to determine the trade-offs that occur in economic and environmental efficiencies under alternative management schemes and alternative climate regimes. Our preliminary analysis for rice farms yielded several important findings. First, both the production cost and environmental pollution by rice farms could be reduced significantly. Improvements in technical efficiency would result in both lower production costs and better environmental performance. Secondly, it is not without cost for farms to move from their current operation to an environmentally efficient operation. On average, this shift would increase production costs by 119%, but benefit water resources by a 69% reduction in eutrophication. It was estimated that the average cost of each kg of aggregate nutrient reduction would cost approximately 1.2 thousand won. These findings have several important policy implications. First, without major policy intervention, rice farms could still improve their economic and environmental performance by being more technically efficient. Training programs for rice farmers that focus on how to manage inputs and how to use the nutrients more efficiently would help farms to consume fewer inputs and cause less eutrophication problems. Second, opportunities exist for policy makers to intervene into the markets to adjust the prices of inputs so that farms, by minimizing their production costs, also improve their environmental performance. Further investigation into such policy options (such as introduction of taxes on fertilizer use, removal of subsidies or provision of incentive schemes) is being conducted.

An Integrated Hydrologic-Economic Modeling Tool for Evaluating Water Management Responses to Climate Change in the Boise River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmidt, R. D.; Taylor, R. G.; Stodick, L. D.; Contor, B. A.

2009-12-01

A recent federal interagency report on climate change and water management (Brekke et. al., 2009) describes several possible management responses to the impacts of climate change on water supply and demand. Management alternatives include changes to water supply infrastructure, reservoir system operations, and water demand policies. Water users in the Bureau of Reclamation’s Boise Project (located in the Lower Boise River basin in southwestern Idaho) would be among those impacted both hydrologically and economically by climate change. Climate change and management responses to climate change are expected to cause shifts in water supply and demand. Supply shifts would result from changes in basin precipitation patterns, and demand shifts would result from higher evapotranspiration rates and a longer growing season. The impacts would also extend to non-Project water users in the basin, since most non-Project groundwater pumpers and drain water diverters rely on hydrologic externalities created by seepage losses from Boise Project water deliveries. An integrated hydrologic-economic model was developed for the Boise basin to aid Reclamation in evaluating the hydrologic and economic impacts of various management responses to climate change. A spatial, partial-equilibrium, economic optimization model calculates spatially-distinct equilibrium water prices and quantities, and maximizes a social welfare function (the sum of consumer and producers surpluses) for all agricultural and municipal water suppliers and demanders (both Project and non-Project) in the basin. Supply-price functions and demand-price functions are exogenous inputs to the economic optimization model. On the supply side, groundwater and river/reservoir models are used to generate hydrologic responses to various management alternatives. The response data is then used to develop water supply-price functions for Project and non-Project water users. On the demand side, crop production functions incorporating crop distribution, evapotranspiration rates, irrigation efficiencies, and crop prices are used to develop water demand-price functions for agricultural water users. Demand functions for municipal and industrial water users are also developed. Recent applications of the integrated model have focused on the hydrologic and economic impacts of demand management alternatives, including large-scale canal lining conservation measures, and market-based water trading between canal diverters and groundwater pumpers. A supply management alternative being investigated involves revising reservoir rule curves to compensate for climate change impacts on timing of reservoir filling.

Space Cooling in the United States: A Market Deep Dive

DOE PAGES

Baxter, Van D.; Sikes, Karen; Khowailed, Gannate

2016-01-01

The American space cooling market is experiencing stricter efficiency standards, prosperous economic conditions, a steadily recovering housing market, population migration shift to warmer climates, and declining electricity prices. These factors have yielded a climate conducive to growth in air conditioning (AC) and air source heat pump (HP) shipments in the recent past with total AC and HP shipments in 2015 accounting for 6.8 million units, showing a growth of 32 % relative to 2010. In this article, the authors investigate the impact that regulatory changes and economic changes have had on unit shipments and identify future market influencers, including themore » introduction of advanced HVAC technologies and transition to more environmentally friendly refrigerants.« less

When should irrigators invest in more water-efficient technologies as an adaptation to climate change?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malek, K.; Adam, J. C.; Stockle, C.; Brady, M.; Yoder, J.

2015-12-01

The western US is expected to experience more frequent droughts with higher magnitudes and persistence due to the climate change, with potentially large impacts on agricultural productivity and the economy. Irrigated farmers have many options for minimizing drought impacts including changing crops, engaging in water markets, and switching irrigation technologies. Switching to more efficient irrigation technologies, which increase water availability in the crop root zone through reduction of irrigation losses, receives significant attention because of the promise of maintaining current production with less. However, more efficient irrigation systems are almost always more capital-intensive adaptation strategy particularly compared to changing crops or trading water. A farmer's decision to switch will depend on how much money they project to save from reducing drought damages. The objective of this study is to explore when (and under what climate change scenarios) it makes sense economically for farmers to invest in a new irrigation system. This study was performed over the Yakima River Basin (YRB) in Washington State, although the tools and information gained from this study are transferable to other watersheds in the western US. We used VIC-CropSyst, a large-scale grid-based modeling framework that simulates hydrological processes while mechanistically capturing crop water use, growth and development. The water flows simulated by VIC-CropSyst were used to run the RiverWare river system and water management model (YAK-RW), which simulates river processes and calculates regional water availability for agricultural use each day (i.e., the prorationing ratio). An automated computational platform has been developed and programed to perform the economic analysis for each grid cell, crop types and future climate projections separately, which allows us to explore whether or not implementing a new irrigation system is economically viable. Results of this study indicate that climate change could justify the investment in new irrigation systems during this century, but the timing of a farmer's response is likely to depend on a variety of factors, including changes in the frequency and magnitude of drought events, current irrigation systems, climatological characteristics within the basin, and crop type.

Environmental and socio-economic vulnerability of agricultural sector in Armenia.

PubMed

Melkonyan, Ani

2014-08-01

Being a mountainous country, Armenia has undergone different kinds of natural disasters, such as droughts, floods, and storms, which have a direct influence on economy and are expected to occur more frequently in terms of climate change, raising the need to estimate economic vulnerability especially in agricultural sector. Agriculture plays a great role in national economy of Armenia, with 21% share in Gross Domestic Production (GDP). For this reason, the estimation of agricultural resources of the country, their vulnerability towards current and future climate, and assessment of economical loss of the agricultural crop production due to climate change are the main goals of the given study. Crop productivity in dependence on climatic elements - temperature, radiation, precipitation, wind field, etc. has been estimated, further on interpolating these relations for future climate conditions using climate projections in the region for the time period of 2011-2040. Data on air temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, wind speed and direction for the period of 1966-2011 have been taken from 30 stations from the measuring network of Armenian State Hydrometeorological Service. Other climatic parameters like potential and actual evapotranspiration, soil temperature and humidity, field capacity, and wilting point have been calculated with the help of an AMBAV/AMBETTI (agroclimatic) model (German Weather Service). The results showed that temperature increase accompanied with evapotranspiration increase and water availability decrease especially in low and mid-low altitudes (where the main national crop production is centralized) caused a significant shift in the phenological phases of crops, which is very important information for effective farming dates, giving an opportunity to raise efficiency of agricultural production through minimizing the yield loss due to unfavorable climatic conditions. With the help of macroeconomical analysis of the crop market, it was estimated that the economical loss of the wheat production due to even drier conditions in the future climate (2011-2040) will be more than doubled, causing essential problems in irrigation systems with sparse water resources. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Assessment of production risks for winter wheat in different German regions under climate change conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kersebaum, K. C.; Gandorfer, M.; Wegehenkel, M.

2012-04-01

The study shows climate change impacts on wheat production in selected regions across Germany. To estimate yield and economic effects the agro-ecosystem model HERMES was used. The model performed runs using 2 different releases of the model WETTREG providing statistically downscaled climate change scenarios for the weather station network of the German Weather Service. Simulations were done using intersected GIS information on soil types and land use identifying the most relevant sites for wheat production. The production risks for wheat yields at the middle of this century were compared to a reference of the present climate. The irrigation demand was determined by the model using an automatic irrigation mode. Production risks with and without irrigation were assessed and the economic feasibility to reduce production risks by irrigation was evaluated. Costs and benefits were compared. Additionally, environmental effects, e.g. groundwater recharge and nitrogen emissions were assessed for irrigated and rain fed systems. Results show that positive and negative effects of climate change occur within most regions depending on the site conditions. Water holding capacity and groundwater distance were the most important factors which determined the vulnerability of sites. Under climate change condition in the middle of the next century we can expect especially at sites with low water holding capacity decreasing average gross margins, higher production risks and a reduced nitrogen use efficiency under rainfed conditions. Irrigation seems to be profitable and risk reducing at those sites, provided that water for irrigation is available. Additionally, the use of irrigation can also increase nitrogen use efficiency which reduced emissions by leaching. Despite the site conditions results depend strongly on the used regional climate scenario and the model approach to consider the effect of elevated CO2 in the atmosphere.

Social and economic attitudes shaping American health policy.

PubMed

Fein, R

1980-01-01

The Health Clark Lectures (University of London) explore the development of American health care policy in a social and economic context; the probability of transatlantic relevance is substantial. I. American Health Care: Selected Policy Issues. The U.S. economy is beset with difficulties, and social policy bends to these realities and to perceptions of them. In the climate of growing neoconservatism, efforts to develop a coherent and cohesive national health policy are discontinuous and even inconsistent. II. Efficiency and Equity in Medicine: The Role of the Economist. The critical issue for economic policy is the amount spent for health care in society; for social policy it is the way that amount is shared. Certainly, there is an interplay between the two, but we must be wary of finding common ground in economic-investment and benefit-cost approaches. Striving for equity offers the best strategy to attain efficiency.

Managing water and salinity with desalination, conveyance, conservation, waste-water treatment and reuse to counteract climate variability in Gaza

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosenberg, D. E.; Aljuaidi, A. E.; Kaluarachchi, J. J.

2009-12-01

We include demands for water of different salinity concentrations as input parameters and decision variables in a regional hydro-economic optimization model. This specification includes separate demand functions for saline water. We then use stochastic non-linear programming to jointly identify the benefit maximizing set of infrastructure expansions, operational allocations, and use of different water quality types under climate variability. We present a detailed application for the Gaza Strip. The application considers building desalination and waste-water treatment plants and conveyance pipelines, initiating water conservation and leak reduction programs, plus allocating and transferring water of different qualities among agricultural, industrial, and urban sectors and among districts. Results show how to integrate a mix of supply enhancement, conservation, water quality improvement, and water quality management actions into a portfolio that can economically and efficiently respond to changes and uncertainties in surface and groundwater availability due to climate variability. We also show how to put drawn-down and saline Gaza aquifer water to more sustainable and economical use.

Navy Ship Propulsion Technologies: Options for Reducing Oil Use - Background for Congress

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-12-11

Change, Energy Efficiency, and Ozone Protection, Protecting National Security and the Environment. Washington, 2000. (Office of the Deputy Under...Shipboard Fuel Consumption and Emissions,” op. cit., and Climate Change, Energy Efficiency, and Ozone Protection, Protecting National Security and the...with the SkySails technology trouble-free.74 CRS-28 75 “The Economic and Sustainable Utilisation in the Cargo Shipping Industry of Wind Power,” HSB

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

The Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) is involved in a variety of international initiatives, partnerships, and events that promote greater understanding and use of renewable energy (RE) and energy efficiency (EE) worldwide. In support of the Energy and Climate Partnership of the Americas (ECPA), EERE is working with several Latin American countries to advance EE and RE deployment for economic growth, energy security, poverty relief, and disaster recovery goals. This fact sheet highlights those activities.

Scenario Analysis With Economic-Energy Systems Models Coupled to Simple Climate Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hanson, D. A.; Kotamarthi, V. R.; Foster, I. T.; Franklin, M.; Zhu, E.; Patel, D. M.

2008-12-01

Here, we compare two scenarios based on Stanford University's Energy Modeling Forum Study 22 on global cooperative and non-cooperative climate policies. In the former, efficient transition paths are implemented including technology Research and Development effort, energy conservation programs, and price signals for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In the non-cooperative case, some countries try to relax their regulations and be free riders. Total emissions and costs are higher in the non-cooperative scenario. The simulations, including climate impacts, run to the year 2100. We use the Argonne AMIGA-MARS economic-energy systems model, the Texas AM University's Forest and Agricultural Sector Optimization Model (FASOM), and the University of Illinois's Integrated Science Assessment Model (ISAM), with offline coupling between the FASOM and AMIGA-MARS and an online coupling between AMIGA-MARS and ISAM. This set of models captures the interaction of terrestrial systems, land use, crops and forests, climate change, human activity, and energy systems. Our scenario simulations represent dynamic paths over which all the climate, terrestrial, economic, and energy technology equations are solved simultaneously Special attention is paid to biofuels and how they interact with conventional gasoline/diesel fuel markets. Possible low-carbon penetration paths are based on estimated costs for new technologies, including cellulosic biomass, coal-to-liquids, plug-in electric vehicles, solar and nuclear energy. We explicitly explore key uncertainties that affect mitigation and adaptation scenarios.

Modeling the yield potential of dryland canola under current and future climates in California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

George, N.; Kaffka, S.; Beeck, C.; Bucaram, S.; Zhang, J.

2012-12-01

Models predict that the climate of California will become hotter, drier and more variable under future climate change scenarios. This will lead to both increased irrigation demand and reduced irrigation water availability. In addition, it is predicted that most common Californian crops will suffer a concomitant decline in productivity. To remain productive and economically viable, future agricultural systems will need to have greater water use efficiency, tolerance of high temperatures, and tolerance of more erratic temperature and rainfall patterns. Canola (Brassica napus) is the third most important oilseed globally, supporting large and well-established agricultural industries in Canada, Europe and Australia. It is an agronomically useful and economically valuable crop, with multiple end markets, that can be grown in California as a dryland winter rotation with little to no irrigation demand. This gives canola great potential as a new crop for Californian farmers both now and as the climate changes. Given practical and financial limitations it is not always possible to immediately or widely evaluate a crop in a new region. Crop production models are therefore valuable tools for assessing the potential of new crops, better targeting further field research, and refining research questions. APSIM is a modular modeling framework developed by the Agricultural Production Systems Research Unit in Australia, it combines biophysical and management modules to simulate cropping systems. This study was undertaken to examine the yield potential of Australian canola varieties having different water requirements and maturity classes in California using APSIM. The objective of the work was to identify the agricultural regions of California most ideally suited to the production of Australian cultivars of canola and to simulate the production of canola in these regions to estimate yield-potential. This will establish whether the introduction and in-field evaluation of better-adapted canola varieties can be justified, and the potential value of a California canola industry both now and in the future. Winter annual crops like canola use rainfall in a Mediterranean climate like California more efficiently than spring or summer crops. Our results suggest that under current production costs and seed prices, dry farmed canola will have good potential in certain areas of the California. Canola yields decline with annual winter precipitation, however economically viable yields are still achieved at relatively precipitation levels (200 mm). Results from simulation, combined with related economic modeling (reported elsewhere) suggest that canola will be viable in a variety of production systems in the northern Sacramento Valley and some coastal locations, even under drier future climate scenarios. The in-field evaluation of Australian canola varieties should contribute to maintain or improving resource use efficiency and farm profitability.

Economically sustainable scaling of photovoltaics to meet climate targets

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Needleman, David Berney; Poindexter, Jeremy R.; Kurchin, Rachel C.

To meet climate targets, power generation capacity from photovoltaics (PV) in 2030 will have to be much greater than is predicted from either steady state growth using today's manufacturing capacity or industry roadmaps. Analysis of whether current technology can scale, in an economically sustainable way, to sufficient levels to meet these targets has not yet been undertaken, nor have tools to perform this analysis been presented. Here, we use bottom-up cost modeling to predict cumulative capacity as a function of technological and economic variables. We find that today's technology falls short in two ways: profits are too small relative tomore » upfront factory costs to grow manufacturing capacity rapidly enough to meet climate targets, and costs are too high to generate enough demand to meet climate targets. We show that decreasing the capital intensity (capex) of PV manufacturing to increase manufacturing capacity and effectively reducing cost (e.g., through higher efficiency) to increase demand are the most effective and least risky ways to address these barriers to scale. We also assess the effects of variations in demand due to hard-to-predict factors, like public policy, on the necessary reductions in cost.Lastly, we review examples of redundant technology pathways for crystalline silicon PV to achieve the necessary innovations in capex, performance, and price.« less

Economically sustainable scaling of photovoltaics to meet climate targets

DOE PAGES

Needleman, David Berney; Poindexter, Jeremy R.; Kurchin, Rachel C.; ...

2016-04-21

To meet climate targets, power generation capacity from photovoltaics (PV) in 2030 will have to be much greater than is predicted from either steady state growth using today's manufacturing capacity or industry roadmaps. Analysis of whether current technology can scale, in an economically sustainable way, to sufficient levels to meet these targets has not yet been undertaken, nor have tools to perform this analysis been presented. Here, we use bottom-up cost modeling to predict cumulative capacity as a function of technological and economic variables. We find that today's technology falls short in two ways: profits are too small relative tomore » upfront factory costs to grow manufacturing capacity rapidly enough to meet climate targets, and costs are too high to generate enough demand to meet climate targets. We show that decreasing the capital intensity (capex) of PV manufacturing to increase manufacturing capacity and effectively reducing cost (e.g., through higher efficiency) to increase demand are the most effective and least risky ways to address these barriers to scale. We also assess the effects of variations in demand due to hard-to-predict factors, like public policy, on the necessary reductions in cost.Lastly, we review examples of redundant technology pathways for crystalline silicon PV to achieve the necessary innovations in capex, performance, and price.« less

Evaluating multiple indices of agricultural water use efficiency and productivity to improve comparisons between sites and trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Levy, M. C.

2012-12-01

Approximately 70% of global available freshwater supplies are used in the agricultural sector. Increased demands for water to meet growing population food requirements, and expected changes in the reliability of freshwater supplies due to climate change, threaten the sustainability of water supplies worldwide - not only on farms, but in connected cities and industries. Researchers concerned with agricultural water use sustainability use a variety of theoretical and empirical measures of efficiency and productivity to gain insight into the sustainability of agricultural water use. However, definitions of measures, or indices, vary between different natural and political boundaries, across regions, states and nations and between their respective research, industry, and environmental groups. Index development responds to local data availability and local agendas, and there is debate about the validity of various indices. However, real differences in empirical index measures are not well-understood across the multiple disciplines that study agricultural water use, including engineering and hydrology, agronomy, climate and soil sciences, and economics. Nevertheless reliable, accessible, and generalizable indices are required for planners and policymakers to promote sustainable water use systems. This study synthesizes a set of water use efficiency and productivity indices based on academic, industry and government literature in California and Australia, two locations with similarly water-stressed and valuable agricultural industries under pressure to achieve optimal water use efficiency and productivity. Empirical data at the irrigation district level from the California San Joaquin Valley and Murray Darling Basin states of Victoria and New South Wales in Australia are used to compute indices that estimate efficiency, yield productivity, and economic productivity of agricultural water use. Multiple index estimates of same time-series data demonstrate historical spread in efficiency and productivity measures in different agricultural regions. Individual indices consistently over- or under- estimate trends in efficiency and productivity by their construction, and may provide inaccurate results in years with extreme climatic events, such as droughts. By treating multiple indices as an "ensemble" of measures, analogous to the treatment of multiple climate model predictions, this study quantifies likely "true" states of efficiency and productivity in the selected agricultural regions, and error in individual indices. While different individual indices are preferable at different scales, and relative to the quality of available input data, ensemble indices can be more reliably used in comparative study across different agricultural regions, and for prediction.

Burden Sharing with Climate Change Impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tavoni, M.; van Vuuren, D.; De Cian, E.; Marangoni, G.; Hof, A.

2014-12-01

Efficiency and equity have been at the center of the climate change policy making since the very first international environmental agreements on climate change, though over time how to implement these principles has taken different forms. Studies based on Integrated Assessment Models have also shown that the economic effort of achieving a 2 degree target in a cost-effective way would differ widely across regions (Tavoni et al. 2013) because of diverse economic and energy structure, baseline emissions, energy and carbon intensity. Policy instruments, such as a fully-fledged, global emission trading schemes can be used to pursuing efficiency and equity at the same time but the literature has analyzed the compensations required to redistribute only mitigation costs. However, most of these studies have neglected the potential impacts of climate change. In this paper we use two integrated assessment models -FAIR and WITCH- to explore the 2°C policy space when accounting for climate change impacts. Impacts are represented via two different reduced forms equations, which despite their simplicity allows us exploring the key sensitivities- Our results show that in a 2 degree stabilization scenarios residual damages remain significant (see Figure 1) and that if you would like to compensate those as part of an equal effort scheme - this would lead to a different allocation than focusing on a mitigation based perspective only. The residual damages and adaptation costs are not equally distributed - and while we do not cover the full uncertainty space - with 2 different models and 2 sets of damage curves we are still able to show quite similar results in terms of vulnerable regions and the relative position of the different scenarios. Therefore, accounting for the residual damages and the associated adaptation costs on top of the mitigation burden increases and redistributes the full burden of total climate change.

Influence of soil and climate heterogeneity on the performance of economic instruments for reducing nitrate leaching from agriculture.

PubMed

Peña-Haro, Salvador; García-Prats, Alberto; Pulido-Velazquez, Manuel

2014-11-15

Economic instruments can be used to control groundwater nitrate pollution due to the intensive use of fertilizers in agriculture. In order to test their efficiency on the reduction of nitrate leaching, we propose an approach based on the combined use of production and pollution functions to derive the impacts on the expected farmer response of these instruments. Some of the most important factors influencing nitrate leaching and crop yield are the type of soil and the climatic conditions. Crop yield and nitrate leaching responses to different soil and climatic conditions were classified by means of a cluster analysis, and crops located in different areas but with similar response were grouped for the analysis. We use a spatial economic optimization model to evaluate the potential of taxes on nitrogen fertilizers, water prices, and taxes on nitrate emissions to reduce nitrate pollution, as well as their economic impact in terms of social welfare and farmers' net benefits. The method was applied to the Mancha Oriental System (MOS) in Spain, a large area with different soil types and climatic conditions. We divided the study area into zones of homogeneous crop production and nitrate leaching properties. Results show spatially different responses of crop growth and nitrate leaching, proving how the cost-effectiveness of pollution control instruments is contingent upon the spatial heterogeneities of the problem. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

EO based Agro-ecosystem approach for climate change adaptation in enhancing the crop production efficiency in the Indo-gangetic plains of India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pandey, Suraj

This study develops a spatial mapping of agro-ecological zones based on earth observation model using MODIS regional dataset as a tool to guide key areas of cropping system and targeting to climate change strategies. This tool applies to the Indo-gangetic Plains of north India to target the domains of bio-physical characteristics and socio-economics with respect to changing climate in the region. It derive on secondary data for spatially-explicit variables at the state/district level, which serve as indicators of climate variability based on sustainable livelihood approach, natural, social and human. The study details the methodology used and generates the spatial climate risk maps for composite indicators of livelihood and vulnerability index in the region.

Agreeing to disagree on climate policy.

PubMed

Heal, Geoffrey M; Millner, Antony

2014-03-11

Disagreements about the value of the utility discount rate--the rate at which our concern for the welfare of future people declines with their distance from us in time--are at the heart of the debate about the appropriate intensity of climate policy. Seemingly small differences in the discount rate yield very different policy prescriptions, and no consensus "correct" value has been identified. We argue that the choice of discount rate is an ethical primitive: there are many different legitimate opinions as to its value, and none should receive a privileged place in economic analysis of climate policy. Rather, we advocate a social choice-based approach in which a diverse set of individual discount rates is aggregated into a "representative" rate. We show that performing this aggregation efficiently leads to a time-dependent discount rate that declines monotonically to the lowest rate in the population. We apply this discounting scheme to calculations of the social cost of carbon recently performed by the US government and show that it provides an attractive compromise between competing ethical positions, and thus provides a possible resolution to the ethical impasse in climate change economics.

Socio-economic vulnerability, adaptation to agro-climatic risk and the potential of user-tailored climate services for the Andean Highlands: The case of quinoa production in the region of Puno

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flubacher, Moritz; Sedlmeier, Katrin; Lechthaler, Filippo; Rohrer, Mario; Cristobal, Lizet; Vinogradova, Alexandra

2017-04-01

In the semi-arid Altiplano in Peru, smallholder farmers are extremely exposed to climatic hazards like drought, frost and hail. These unfavorable weather and climate events can lead to significant crop losses and thereby provoke periods of food insecurity for subsistence farmers. The use of specific climate information can serve as an adaptation strategy to reduce the impact of these natural hazards. In this context, the Climandes project (a project of the Global Framework for Climate Services led by WMO) aims at developing user-tailored seasonal forecast products for the agricultural sector in the Peruvian Andes such as indices on increased frost risk, the occurrence of long dry periods, or the start of the rainy season. In order to develop such user-tailored climate information and link it efficiently to the existing implementation context, it is important to understand the complex interrelation between climate variability and change, socio-economic vulnerability and adaptation limits. Moreover, as it has been widely shown, the process of making climate information useful for end-users, in particular for smallholder farmers in developing countries, remains a considerable challenge due to existing cognitive, cultural and institutional constraints. In this sense, it is necessary to identify these constraints and formulate strategies to overcome them. While there exist different studies about climate change and anomalies in Puno, there is no consolidated evidence on the corresponding socio-economic vulnerabilities in the specific agricultural context of Puno. In order to fill this gap, we conducted a field survey collecting primary data in the Andean highlands based on a representative sample of 726 smallholder farmers in the region of Puno (Peru). The assessment primarily focused on exploring smallholders' agro-climatic risk exposure, socio-economic profiles, existing coping strategies as well as prevailing barriers to utilization of science-based climate information. The study was complemented with an artefactual experimental game performed with 176 smallholders to identify and describe their risk preferences. The existing economic literature shows that farmers' risk preferences generally play a decisive role for agricultural decision-making indicating the importance of understanding farmer's risk profile when evaluating the potential use of climate information at the individual level. First results indicate that smallholders in the region are regularly exposed to extreme weather events such as frost, hailstorms and droughts. Under these conditions, farmers often do not have the capacity and sufficient resources to prevent periods of food insecurity at the end of the growing period. Hereby climate information can support the agricultural production decisions and improve food security but only if developed in close collaboration with the end-users.

Climate Change: Integrating Science and Economics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prinn, R. G.

2008-12-01

The world is facing an ever-growing conflict between environment and development. Climate change is a century-scale threat requiring a century-long effort in science, technology and policy analysis, and institutions that can sustain this effort over generations. To inform policy development and implementation there is urgent need for better integration of the diverse components of the problem. Motivated by this challenge, we have developed the Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) at MIT. It comprises coupled sub- models of economic development, atmospheric chemistry, climate dynamics and ecosystems. The results of a recent uncertainty analysis involving hundreds of runs of the IGSM imply that, without mitigation policies, the global average surface temperature may rise much faster than previously estimated. Polar temperatures are projected to rise even faster than the average rate with obvious great risks for high latitude ecosystems and ice sheets at the high end of this range. Analysis of policies for climate mitigation, show that the greatest effect of these policies is to lower the probability of extreme changes as opposed to lowering the medians. Faced with the above estimated impacts, the long lifetimes of most greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, the long delay in ultimate warming due to ocean heat uptake, and the capital-intensive global energy infrastructure, the case is strong for concerted action now. Results of runs of the IGSM indicate the need for transformation of the global energy industry on a very large scale to mitigate climate change. Carbon sequestration, renewable energy sources, and nuclear present new economic, technological, and environmental challenges when implemented at the needed scales. Economic analyses using the IGSM indicate that global implementation of efficient policies could allow the needed transformations at bearable costs.

Space-planning and structural solutions of low-rise buildings: Optimal selection methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gusakova, Natalya; Minaev, Nikolay; Filushina, Kristina; Dobrynina, Olga; Gusakov, Alexander

2017-11-01

The present study is devoted to elaboration of methodology used to select appropriately the space-planning and structural solutions in low-rise buildings. Objective of the study is working out the system of criteria influencing the selection of space-planning and structural solutions which are most suitable for low-rise buildings and structures. Application of the defined criteria in practice aim to enhance the efficiency of capital investments, energy and resource saving, create comfortable conditions for the population considering climatic zoning of the construction site. Developments of the project can be applied while implementing investment-construction projects of low-rise housing at different kinds of territories based on the local building materials. The system of criteria influencing the optimal selection of space-planning and structural solutions of low-rise buildings has been developed. Methodological basis has been also elaborated to assess optimal selection of space-planning and structural solutions of low-rise buildings satisfying the requirements of energy-efficiency, comfort and safety, and economical efficiency. Elaborated methodology enables to intensify the processes of low-rise construction development for different types of territories taking into account climatic zoning of the construction site. Stimulation of low-rise construction processes should be based on the system of approaches which are scientifically justified; thus it allows enhancing energy efficiency, comfort, safety and economical effectiveness of low-rise buildings.

Energy Efficiency Potential in the U.S. Single-Family Housing Stock

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wilson, Eric J.; Christensen, Craig B.; Horowitz, Scott G.

Typical approaches for assessing energy efficiency potential in buildings use a limited number of prototypes, and therefore suffer from inadequate resolution when pass-fail cost-effectiveness tests are applied, which can significantly underestimate or overestimate the economic potential of energy efficiency technologies. This analysis applies a new approach to large-scale residential energy analysis, combining the use of large public and private data sources, statistical sampling, detailed building simulations, and high-performance computing to achieve unprecedented granularity - and therefore accuracy - in modeling the diversity of the single-family housing stock. The result is a comprehensive set of maps, tables, and figures showing themore » technical and economic potential of 50 plus residential energy efficiency upgrades and packages for each state. Policymakers, program designers, and manufacturers can use these results to identify upgrades with the highest potential for cost-effective savings in a particular state or region, as well as help identify customer segments for targeted marketing and deployment. The primary finding of this analysis is that there is significant technical and economic potential to save electricity and on-site fuel use in the single-family housing stock. However, the economic potential is very sensitive to the cost-effectiveness criteria used for analysis. Additionally, the savings of particular energy efficiency upgrades is situation-specific within the housing stock (depending on climate, building vintage, heating fuel type, building physical characteristics, etc.).« less

Process Intensification for Cellulosic Biorefineries.

PubMed

Sadula, Sunitha; Athaley, Abhay; Zheng, Weiqing; Ierapetritou, Marianthi; Saha, Basudeb

2017-06-22

Utilization of renewable carbon source, especially non-food biomass is critical to address the climate change and future energy challenge. Current chemical and enzymatic processes for producing cellulosic sugars are multistep, and energy- and water-intensive. Techno-economic analysis (TEA) suggests that upstream lignocellulose processing is a major hurdle to the economic viability of the cellulosic biorefineries. Process intensification, which integrates processes and uses less water and energy, has the potential to overcome the aforementioned challenges. Here, we demonstrate a one-pot depolymerization and saccharification process of woody biomass, energy crops, and agricultural residues to produce soluble sugars with high yields. Lignin is separated as a solid for selective upgrading. Further integration of our upstream process with a reactive extraction step makes energy-efficient separation of sugars in the form of furans. TEA reveals that the process efficiency and integration enable, for the first time, economic production of feed streams that could profoundly improve process economics for downstream cellulosic bioproducts. © 2017 Wiley-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Large landscape conservation-synthetic and real-world datasets

Treesearch

Bistra Dilkina; Katherine Lai; Ronan Le Bras; Yexiang Xue; Carla P. Gomes; Ashish Sabharwal; Jordan Suter; Kevin S. McKelvey; Michael K. Schwartz; Claire Montgomery

2013-01-01

Biodiversity underpins ecosystem goods and services and hence protecting it is key to achieving sustainability. However, the persistence of many species is threatened by habitat loss and fragmentation due to human land use and climate change. Conservation efforts are implemented under very limited economic resources, and therefore designing scalable, cost-efficient and...

Adaptation Challenges in Complex River Basins: Lessons Learned and Unlearned for the Colorado

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pulwarty, R. S.

2008-12-01

Climate variations affect the function and operation of existing water infrastructure - including hydropower, structural flood defenses, drainage and irrigation systems - as well as water management practices in support of efficiency and environmental needs. Selected basins around the world, including the Colorado, show agreements in model projections of increasing aridity. Adverse effects of climate change on freshwater systems aggravate the impacts of other stresses, such as population growth, changing economic activity, land-use change and urbanization and most importantly upstream-downstream winners and losers. Thus current water management practices may not be robust enough to cope with the impacts of climate change on water supply reliability. In many locations, water management does not even satisfactorily cope with current climate variability, so that large flood and drought-related environmental and economic damages occur on seasonal to decadal timescales. The recently released IPCC Technical Paper notes that adaptation procedures and risk management practices that incorporate projected hydrological changes with related uncertainties are being developed in some countries and regions.In this presentation we will review the challenges and lessons provided in drought and water resources management and optimization in the context of climate variability and projected change in the Western U.S., the European Union (including the Iberian Peninsula), the Murray-Darling Basin, and elsewhere. Since the release of the IPCC report several of the authors (including the presenter) have held meetings on comparative assessments of adaptation and its challenges in interstate and international river basins. As a first step, improved incorporation of information about current climate variability into water-related management could assist adaptation to longer-term climate change impacts. Future adaptations include technical changes that improve water use efficiency, demand management (e.g. through metering and pricing), and institutional changes that improve the tradability of water rights. The co-evolution of climate history and adaptation did not start with the release of IPCC scenarios. The development of the Colorado River Basin was itself influenced by water resources planners from around the world (including the Middle East) in the late 1800s. As such lessons identified, but not always learned, abound. These hold considerable promise for water savings and the reallocation of water to highly valued uses. Supply-side strategies generally involve increases in storage capacity, abstraction from watercourses, and water transfers. Integrated water resources management provides an important governance framework to achieve adaptation measures across socio-economic, environmental and administrative systems. However, several paradoxes in water management and governance mitigate against the effectiveness of scientific information for meeting short term needs in the context of reducing longer-term vulnerabilities and for providing water to meet environmental needs. Consequently a complete analysis of the effects of climate change on human water uses would consider cross-sector interactions, including the impacts of changes in water use efficiency and intentional transfers of the use of water from one sector to another.

Targeted opportunities to address the climate-trade dilemma in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Zhu; Davis, Steven J.; Feng, Kuishuang; Hubacek, Klaus; Liang, Sai; Anadon, Laura Diaz; Chen, Bin; Liu, Jingru; Yan, Jinyue; Guan, Dabo

2016-02-01

International trade has become the fastest growing driver of global carbon emissions, with large quantities of emissions embodied in exports from emerging economies. International trade with emerging economies poses a dilemma for climate and trade policy: to the extent emerging markets have comparative advantages in manufacturing, such trade is economically efficient and desirable. However, if carbon-intensive manufacturing in emerging countries such as China entails drastically more CO2 emissions than making the same product elsewhere, then trade increases global CO2 emissions. Here we show that the emissions embodied in Chinese exports, which are larger than the annual emissions of Japan or Germany, are primarily the result of China’s coal-based energy mix and the very high emissions intensity (emission per unit of economic value) in a few provinces and industry sectors. Exports from these provinces and sectors therefore represent targeted opportunities to address the climate-trade dilemma by either improving production technologies and decarbonizing the underlying energy systems or else reducing trade volumes.

Synthesis of public water supply use in the United States: Spatio-temporal patterns and socio-economic controls

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sankarasubramanian, A.; Sabo, J. L.; Larson, K. L.; Seo, S. B.; Sinha, T.; Bhowmik, R.; Vidal, A. Ruhi; Kunkel, K.; Mahinthakumar, G.; Berglund, E. Z.; Kominoski, J.

2017-07-01

Recent U.S. Geological Survey water-use report suggests that increasing water-use efficiency could mitigate the supply-and-demand imbalance arising from changing climate and growing population. However, this rich data have neither analyzed to understand the underlying patterns, nor have been investigated to identify the factors contributing to this increased efficiency. A national-scale synthesis of public supply withdrawals ("withdrawals") reveals a strong North-south gradient in public supply water use with the increasing population in the South contributing to increased withdrawal. Contrastingly, a reverse South-north gradient exists in per capita withdrawals ("efficiency"), with northern states consistently improving the efficiency, while the southern states' efficiency declined. Our analyses of spatial patterns of per capita withdrawals further demonstrate that urban counties exhibit improved efficiency over rural counties. Improved efficiency is also demonstrated over high-income and well-educated counties. Given the potential implications of the findings in developing long-term water conservation measures (i.e., increasing block rates), we argue the need for frequent updates, perhaps monthly to annual, of water-use data for identifying effective strategies that control the water-use efficiency in various geographic settings under a changing climate.

Vulnerability-based evaluation of water supply design under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Umit Taner, Mehmet; Ray, Patrick; Brown, Casey

2015-04-01

Long-lived water supply infrastructures are strategic investments in the developing world, serving the purpose of balancing water deficits compounded by both population growth and socio-economic development. Robust infrastructure design under climate change is compelling, and often addressed by focusing on the outcomes of climate model projections ('scenario-led' planning), or by identifying design options that are less vulnerable to a wide range of plausible futures ('vulnerability-based' planning). Decision-Scaling framework combines these two approaches by first applying a climate stress test on the system to explore vulnerabilities across many traces of the future, and then employing climate projections to inform the decision-making process. In this work, we develop decision scaling's nascent risk management concepts further, directing actions on vulnerabilities identified during the climate stress test. In the process, we present a new way to inform climate vulnerability space using climate projections, and demonstrate the use of multiple decision criteria to guide to a final design recommendation. The concepts are demonstrated for a water supply project in the Mombasa Province of Kenya, planned to provide domestic and irrigation supply. Six storage design capacities (from 40 to 140 million cubic meters) are explored through a stress test, under a large number climate traces representing both natural climate variability and plausible climate changes. Design outcomes are simulated over a 40-year planning period with a coupled hydrologic-water resources systems model and using standard reservoir operation rules. Resulting performance is expressed in terms of water supply reliability and economic efficiency. Ensemble climate projections are used for assigning conditional likelihoods to the climate traces using a statistical distance measure. The final design recommendations are presented and discussed for the decision criteria of expected regret, satisficing, and conditional value-at-risk (CVaR).

High Performance Flat Plate Solar Thermal Collector Evaluation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rockenbaugh, Caleb; Dean, Jesse; Lovullo, David

2016-09-01

This report was prepared for the General Services Administration by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. The Honeycomb Solar Thermal Collector (HSTC) is a flat plate solar thermal collector that shows promising high efficiencies over a wide range of climate zones. The technical objectives of this study are to: 1) verify collector performance, 2) compare that performance to other market-available collectors, 3) verify overheat protection, and 4) analyze the economic performance of the HSTC both at the demonstration sites and across a matrix of climate zones and utility markets.

Managing nitrogen for sustainable development.

PubMed

Zhang, Xin; Davidson, Eric A; Mauzerall, Denise L; Searchinger, Timothy D; Dumas, Patrice; Shen, Ye

2015-12-03

Improvements in nitrogen use efficiency in crop production are critical for addressing the triple challenges of food security, environmental degradation and climate change. Such improvements are conditional not only on technological innovation, but also on socio-economic factors that are at present poorly understood. Here we examine historical patterns of agricultural nitrogen-use efficiency and find a broad range of national approaches to agricultural development and related pollution. We analyse examples of nitrogen use and propose targets, by geographic region and crop type, to meet the 2050 global food demand projected by the Food and Agriculture Organization while also meeting the Sustainable Development Goals pertaining to agriculture recently adopted by the United Nations General Assembly. Furthermore, we discuss socio-economic policies and technological innovations that may help achieve them.

Climate Informed Economic Instruments to Enhance Urban Water Supply Resilience to Hydroclimatological Variability and Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown, C.; Carriquiry, M.; Souza Filho, F. A.

2006-12-01

Hydroclimatological variability presents acute challenges to urban water supply providers. The impact is often most severe in developing nations where hydrologic and climate variability can be very high, water demand is unmet and increasing, and the financial resources to mitigate the social effects of that variability are limited. Furthermore, existing urban water systems face a reduced solution space, constrained by competing and conflicting interests, such as irrigation demand, recreation and hydropower production, and new (relative to system design) demands to satisfy environmental flow requirements. These constraints magnify the impacts of hydroclimatic variability and increase the vulnerability of urban areas to climate change. The high economic and social costs of structural responses to hydrologic variability, such as groundwater utilization and the construction or expansion of dams, create a need for innovative alternatives. Advances in hydrologic and climate forecasting, and the increasing sophistication and acceptance of incentive-based mechanisms for achieving economically efficient water allocation offer potential for improving the resilience of existing water systems to the challenge of variable supply. This presentation will explore the performance of a system of climate informed economic instruments designed to facilitate the reduction of hydroclimatologic variability-induced impacts on water-sensitive stakeholders. The system is comprised of bulk water option contracts between urban water suppliers and agricultural users and insurance indexed on reservoir inflows designed to cover the financial needs of the water supplier in situations where the option is likely to be exercised. Contract and insurance parameters are linked to forecasts and the evolution of seasonal precipitation and streamflow and designed for financial and political viability. A simulation of system performance is presented based on ongoing work in Metro Manila, Philippines. The system is further evaluated as an alternative strategy to infrastructure expansion for climate change adaptation in the water resources sector.

[Study on eco-climatic applicability of Angelica sinensis].

PubMed

Deng, Zhen-Yong; Yin, Xian-Zhi; Yin, Dong; Yang, Qi-Guo; Zhu, Guo-Qing; Liu, Ming-Chun

2005-06-01

In the interest of establish planting base of Angelica sinensis on a large scale, enhance economic benefit, and improve decision-making reasons, the eco-climatic applicability of A. sinensis was studied. Using integral regression, eco-climatic applicability and the effect of meteorological conditions for the yield of A. sinensis' were analysed by field experimental data. Selected > or =0 degrees C accumulated temperature and annual precipitation as leading index, altitude as assistant index, yield and rate of finished products as reference index, the integrated eco-climatic division index and the planting division applicability of A. sinensis was confirmed. Accordancing to theory of climate similitude and leading index summarisation, combining with assistant index and reference index, the integrated division index of eco-climate was confirmed. The planting division of co-climate applicability was divided into 5 grades as best suitable, suitable hypo-suitable, just suitable and no suitable regions. At the same time,the way to enhanced utilizing efficiency of eco-climate resources was brought forward.

Nitrogen use efficiency in the US economy: Towards mitigation of climate change impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Houlton, B. Z.; Boyer, E. W.; Finzi, A. C.; Galloway, J. N.; Leach, A.; Liptzin, D.; Melillo, J. M.; Rosenstock, T.; Sobota, D. J.; Townsend, A. R.

2011-12-01

Nitrogen (N) interacts strongly with climate change in determining the severity and extent of many human health and environmental issues, such as eutrophication, poor air quality, and the maintenance of a secure food system. We were motivated by such N-climate interactions and their environmental impacts as part of a broader assessment of N in the continental United States. We here seek to identify and quantify inefficiencies associated with intentional N creation (i.e., creating synthetic N fertilizers and cultivating N-fixing legumes) among the major N-dependent sectors of the United States economy. We define efficiency of N use as the proportion N directly incorporated into food, fiber, biofuel, and industrial goods from the pool of intentionally created N. We are interested in whether reductions in N use could be achieved without changing the current functioning of the major N-dependent economic sectors. Our analysis points to substantial inefficiencies in N use at the national scale. A large percentage of the N applied as synthetic fertilizer and fixed by legumes annually fails to enter the United States food supply. Much of the unincorporated N enters air, land and water, where it can impact human health and ecosystems. The climate change forcing of N is uncertain, though it appears that the combined effects of intentionally and unintentionally created N on climate is roughly neutral in the United States (i.e., net effect of N-enhanced C storage, nitrous oxide emissions, N-based aerosols, and tropospheric ozone on climate forcing). Thus, it is reasonable to expect that improved efficiencies in N use would have minimal negative side effects on the United States economy, human health and the environment. We suggest that policies aimed at improving N-use efficiencies are an alternative to direct climate mitigation strategies in offsetting several impacts of climate change on human health and ecosystem functioning.

Environmental implications of carbon limits on market penetration of combined heat and power with the U.S. energy sector (Slides)

EPA Science Inventory

Combined heat and power (CHP) is promoted as an economical, energy-efficient option for combating climate change. To fully examine the viability of CHP as a clean-technology solution, its market potential and impacts need to be analyzed as part of scenarios of the future energy s...

Contributions to accelerating atmospheric CO2 growth from economic activity, carbon intensity, and efficiency of natural sinks.

PubMed

Canadell, Josep G; Le Quéré, Corinne; Raupach, Michael R; Field, Christopher B; Buitenhuis, Erik T; Ciais, Philippe; Conway, Thomas J; Gillett, Nathan P; Houghton, R A; Marland, Gregg

2007-11-20

The growth rate of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO(2)), the largest human contributor to human-induced climate change, is increasing rapidly. Three processes contribute to this rapid increase. Two of these processes concern emissions. Recent growth of the world economy combined with an increase in its carbon intensity have led to rapid growth in fossil fuel CO(2) emissions since 2000: comparing the 1990s with 2000-2006, the emissions growth rate increased from 1.3% to 3.3% y(-1). The third process is indicated by increasing evidence (P = 0.89) for a long-term (50-year) increase in the airborne fraction (AF) of CO(2) emissions, implying a decline in the efficiency of CO(2) sinks on land and oceans in absorbing anthropogenic emissions. Since 2000, the contributions of these three factors to the increase in the atmospheric CO(2) growth rate have been approximately 65 +/- 16% from increasing global economic activity, 17 +/- 6% from the increasing carbon intensity of the global economy, and 18 +/- 15% from the increase in AF. An increasing AF is consistent with results of climate-carbon cycle models, but the magnitude of the observed signal appears larger than that estimated by models. All of these changes characterize a carbon cycle that is generating stronger-than-expected and sooner-than-expected climate forcing.

Global warming, energy use, and economic growth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khanna, Neha

The dissertation comprises four papers that explore the interactions between global warming, energy use, and economic growth. While the papers are separate entities, they share the underlying theme of highlighting national differences in the growth experience and their implications for long-term energy use and climate change. The first paper provides an overview of some key economic issues in the climate change literature. In doing so, the paper critically appraises the 1995 draft report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The focus is the choice of a pure rate of time preference in the economic modeling of climate change, abatement costs differentials between developed and developing countries, and contrasting implications of standard discount rates and value of life estimates for these two country groups. The second paper develops a global model that takes account of the depletion of oil resources in the context of a geo-economic model for climate change. It is found that in the presence of non-decreasing carbon and energy intensities and declining petroleum availability, the carbon emissions trajectory is much higher than that typically projected by other models of this genre. Furthermore, by introducing price and income sensitive demand functions for fossil fuels, the model provides a framework to assess the effectiveness of fuel specific carbon taxes in reducing the COsb2 emissions trajectory. Cross-price substitution effects necessitate unrealistically high tax rates in order to lower the projected emissions trajectory to the optimal level. The economic structure of five integrated assessment models for climate change is reviewed in the third paper, with a special focus on the macroeconomic and damage assessment modules. The final paper undertakes an econometric estimation of the changing shares of capital, labour, energy, and technical change in explaining the growth patterns of 38 countries. Production elasticities vary by country group and also in response to the levels of factor use. It is found that classifying countries according to the GDP growth rate yields statistically different slope coefficients. Using the estimated translog production function, the capital and labour requirements of reductions in energy use are approximated. Analytical expressions for the elasticity of energy intensity with respect to factor inputs and also autonomous energy efficiency improvements are provided.

Agreeing to disagree on climate policy

PubMed Central

Heal, Geoffrey M.; Millner, Antony

2014-01-01

Disagreements about the value of the utility discount rate—the rate at which our concern for the welfare of future people declines with their distance from us in time—are at the heart of the debate about the appropriate intensity of climate policy. Seemingly small differences in the discount rate yield very different policy prescriptions, and no consensus “correct” value has been identified. We argue that the choice of discount rate is an ethical primitive: there are many different legitimate opinions as to its value, and none should receive a privileged place in economic analysis of climate policy. Rather, we advocate a social choice-based approach in which a diverse set of individual discount rates is aggregated into a “representative” rate. We show that performing this aggregation efficiently leads to a time-dependent discount rate that declines monotonically to the lowest rate in the population. We apply this discounting scheme to calculations of the social cost of carbon recently performed by the US government and show that it provides an attractive compromise between competing ethical positions, and thus provides a possible resolution to the ethical impasse in climate change economics. PMID:24567383

Bridging Climate Change Resilience and Mitigation in the Electricity Sector Through Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency: Emerging Climate Change and Development Topics for Energy Sector Transformation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cox, Sarah L; Hotchkiss, Elizabeth L; Bilello, Daniel E

Reliable, safe, and secure electricity is essential for economic and social development and a necessary input for many sectors of the economy. However, electricity generation and associated processes make up a significant portion of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions contributing to climate change. Furthermore, electricity systems are vulnerable to climate change impacts - both short-term events and changes over the longer term. This vulnerability presents both near-term and chronic challenges in providing reliable, affordable, equitable, and sustainable energy services. Within this context, developing countries face a number of challenges in the energy sector, including the need to reliably meet growingmore » electricity demand, lessen dependence on imported fuels, expand energy access, and improve stressed infrastructure for fuel supply and electricity transmission. Energy efficiency (EE) and renewable energy (RE) technical solutions described in this paper can bridge action across climate change mitigation and resilience through reducing GHG emissions and supporting electric power sector adaptation to increasing climate risk. Integrated planning approaches, also highlighted in this paper, play an integral role in bringing together mitigation and resilience action under broader frameworks. Through supporting EE and RE deployment and integrated planning approaches, unique to specific national and local circumstances, countries can design and implement policies, strategies, and sectoral plans that unite development priorities, climate change mitigation, and resilience.« less

Assessment of urban pluvial flood risk and efficiency of adaptation options through simulations - A new generation of urban planning tools

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Löwe, Roland; Urich, Christian; Sto. Domingo, Nina; Mark, Ole; Deletic, Ana; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten

2017-07-01

We present a new framework for flexible testing of flood risk adaptation strategies in a variety of urban development and climate scenarios. This framework couples the 1D-2D hydrodynamic simulation package MIKE FLOOD with the agent-based urban development model DAnCE4Water and provides the possibility to systematically test various flood risk adaptation measures ranging from large infrastructure changes over decentralised water management to urban planning policies. We have tested the framework in a case study in Melbourne, Australia considering 9 scenarios for urban development and climate and 32 potential combinations of flood adaptation measures. We found that the performance of adaptation measures strongly depended on the considered climate and urban development scenario and the other implementation measures implemented, suggesting that adaptive strategies are preferable over one-off investments. Urban planning policies proved to be an efficient means for the reduction of flood risk, while implementing property buyback and pipe increases in a guideline-oriented manner was too costly. Random variations in location and time point of urban development could have significant impact on flood risk and would in some cases outweigh the benefits of less efficient adaptation strategies. The results of our setup can serve as an input for robust decision making frameworks and thus support the identification of flood risk adaptation measures that are economically efficient and robust to variations of climate and urban layout.

Radicalization in the National Economic Climate: Discovery Workshop at DRDC Toronto 7-8 December 2009

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-04-01

self-blame, and guilt or shame. The model provides an account of how economic Radicalization in the National Economic Climate Discovery Workshop at...RADICALIZATION IN THE NATIONAL ECONOMIC CLIMATE DISCOVERY WORKSHOP AT DRDC TORONTO 7-8 DECEMBER 2009 Gauthier, M.; Lamoureux, T. CAE...1 0 . Radicalization in the National Economic Climate Discovery Workshop at DRDC Toronto 7-8 December 2009 April 2010 – ii – © Her Majesty

Economic development and declining vulnerability to climate-related disasters in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Jidong; Han, Guoyi; Zhou, Hongjian; Li, Ning

2018-03-01

Exposure and vulnerability are the main contributing factors of growing impact from climate-related disasters globally. Understanding the spatiotemporal dynamic patterns of vulnerability is important for designing effective disaster risk mitigation and adaptation measures. At national scale, most cross-country studies have suggested that economic vulnerability to disasters decreases as income increases, especially for developing countries. Research covering sub-national climate-related natural disasters is indispensable to obtaining a comprehensive understanding of the effect of regional economic growth on vulnerability reduction. Taking China as a case, this subnational scale study shows that economic development is correlated with the significant reduction in human fatalities but increase in direct economic losses (DELs) from climate-related disasters since 1949. The long-term trend in climate-related disaster vulnerability, reflected by mortality (1978-2015) and DELs (1990-2015) as a share of the total population and Gross Domestic Product, has seen significant decline among all economic regions in China. While notable differences remain among its West, Central and East economic regions, the temporal vulnerability change has been converging. The study further demonstrated that economic development level is correlated with human and economic vulnerability to climate-related disasters, and this vulnerability decreased with the increase of per-capita income. This study suggested that economic development can have nuanced effects on overall human and economic vulnerability to climate-related disasters. We argue that climate change science needs to acknowledge and examine the different pathways of vulnerability effects related to economic development.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Van Geet, Otto

NREL has developed a methodology to prioritize which data center cooling systems could be upgraded for better efficiency based on estimated cost savings and economics. The best efficiency results are in cool or dry climates where 'free' economizer or evaporative cooling can provide most of the data center cooling. Locations with a high cost of energy and facilities with high power usage effectiveness (PUE) are also good candidates for data center cooling system upgrades. In one case study of a major cable provider's data centers, most of the sites studied had opportunities for cost-effective cooling system upgrades with payback periodmore » of 5 years or less. If the cable provider invested in all opportunities for upgrades with payback periods of less than 15 years, it could save 27% on annual energy costs.« less

iMOOC on Climate Change: Evaluation of a Massive Open Online Learning Pilot Experience

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Coelho, José; Teixeira, António; Nicolau, Paula Bacelar; Caeiro, Sandra; Rocio, Vitor

2015-01-01

MOOCs are a recent phenomenon, although given their impact, they have been subject to a large debate. Several questions have been raised by researchers and educators alike regarding their sustainability, both economically and as an efficient mode of education provision. In this paper we contribute to this discussion by presenting a case study of…

Impacts of multiple global environmental changes on African crop yield and water use efficiency: Implications to food and water security

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pan, S.; Yang, J.; Zhang, J.; Xu, R.; Dangal, S. R. S.; Zhang, B.; Tian, H.

2016-12-01

Africa is one of the most vulnerable regions in the world to climate change and climate variability. Much concern has been raised about the impacts of climate and other environmental factors on water resource and food security through the climate-water-food nexus. Understanding the responses of crop yield and water use efficiency to environmental changes is particularly important because Africa is well known for widespread poverty, slow economic growth and agricultural systems particularly sensitive to frequent and persistent droughts. However, the lack of integrated understanding has limited our ability to quantify and predict the potential of Africa's agricultural sustainability and freshwater supply, and to better manage the system for meeting an increasing food demand in a way that is socially and environmentally or ecologically sustainable. By using the Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model (DLEM-AG2) driven by spatially-explicit information on land use, climate and other environmental changes, we have assessed the spatial and temporal patterns of crop yield, evapotranspiration (ET) and water use efficiency across entire Africa in the past 35 years (1980-2015) and the rest of the 21st century (2016-2099). Our preliminary results indicate that African crop yield in the past three decades shows an increasing trend primarily due to cropland expansion (about 50%), elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration, and nitrogen deposition. However, crop yield shows substantially spatial and temporal variation due to inter-annual and inter-decadal climate variability and spatial heterogeneity of environmental drivers. Climate extremes especially droughts and heat wave have largely reduced crop yield in the most vulnerable regions. Our results indicate that N fertilizer could be a major driver to improve food security in Africa. Future climate warming could reduce crop yield and shift cropland distribution. Our study further suggests that improving water use efficiency through land management practices including the increased uses of fertilizers and irrigation will be the key for reducing the loss of crop yield in a warming climate and extreme weather.

The British Climate Change Act: a critical evaluation and proposed alternative approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pielke, Roger A., Jr.

2009-04-01

This paper evaluates the United Kingdom's Climate Change Act of 2008 in terms of the implied rates of decarbonization of the UK economy for a short-term and a long-term target established in law. The paper uses the Kaya identity to structure the evaluation, employing both a bottom up approach (based on projections of future UK population, economic growth, and technology) and a top down approach (deriving implied rates of decarbonization consistent with the targets and various rates of projected economic growth). Both approaches indicate that the UK economy would have to achieve annual rates of decarbonization in excess of 4 or 5%. To place these numbers in context, the UK would have to achieve the 2006 carbon efficiency of France by about 2015, a level of effort comparable to the building of about 30 new nuclear power plants, displacing an equivalent amount of fossil energy. The paper argues that the magnitude of the task implied by the UK Climate Change Act strongly suggests that it is on course to fail, and discusses implications.

Global health equity and climate stabilisation: a common agenda.

PubMed

Friel, Sharon; Marmot, Michael; McMichael, Anthony J; Kjellstrom, Tord; Vågerö, Denny

2008-11-08

Although health has improved for many people, the extent of health inequities between and within countries is growing. Meanwhile, humankind is disrupting the global climate and other life-supporting environmental systems, thereby creating serious risks for health and wellbeing, especially in vulnerable populations but ultimately for everybody. Underlying determinants of health inequity and environmental change overlap substantially; they are signs of an economic system predicated on asymmetric growth and competition, shaped by market forces that mostly disregard health and environmental consequences rather than by values of fairness and support. A shift is needed in priorities in economic development towards healthy forms of urbanisation, more efficient and renewable energy sources, and a sustainable and fairer food system. Global interconnectedness and interdependence enable the social and environmental determinants of health to be addressed in ways that will increase health equity, reduce poverty, and build societies that live within environmental limits.

Assessing the Roles of Regional Climate Uncertainty, Policy, and Economics on Future Risks to Water Stress: A Large-Ensemble Pilot Case for Southeast Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schlosser, C. A.; Strzepek, K. M.; Gao, X.; Fant, C. W.; Blanc, E.; Monier, E.; Sokolov, A. P.; Paltsev, S.; Arndt, C.; Prinn, R. G.; Reilly, J. M.; Jacoby, H.

2013-12-01

The fate of natural and managed water resources is controlled to varying degrees by interlinked energy, agricultural, and environmental systems, as well as the hydro-climate cycles. The need for risk-based assessments of impacts and adaptation to regional change calls for likelihood quantification of outcomes via the representation of uncertainty - to the fullest extent possible. A hybrid approach of the MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) framework provides probabilistic projections of regional climate change - generated in tandem with consistent socio-economic projections. A Water Resources System (WRS) then tracks water allocation and availability across these competing demands. As such, the IGSM-WRS is an integrated tool that provides quantitative insights on the risks and sustainability of water resources over large river basins. This pilot project focuses the IGSM-WRS on Southeast Asia (Figure 1). This region presents exceptional challenges toward sustainable water resources given its texture of basins that traverse and interconnect developing nations as well as large, ascending economies and populations - such as China and India. We employ the IGSM-WRS in a large ensemble of outcomes spanning hydro-climatic, economic, and policy uncertainties. For computational efficiency, a Gaussian Quadrature procedure sub-samples these outcomes (Figure 2). The IGSM-WRS impacts are quantified through frequency distributions of water stress changes. The results allow for interpretation of: the effects of policy measures; impacts on food production; and the value of design flexibility of infrastructure/institutions. An area of model development and exploration is the feedback of water-stress shocks to economic activity (i.e. GDP and land use). We discuss these further results (where possible) as well as other efforts to refine: uncertainty methods, greater basin-level and climate detail, and process-level representation glacial melt-water sources. Figure 1 Figure 2

A CBO Study: The Economics of Climate Change: A Primer

DTIC Science & Technology

2003-04-01

issues related to climate change , focusing primarily on its economic aspects. The study draws from numerous published sources to summarize the current...state of climate science and provide a conceptual framework for addressing climate change as an economic problem. It also examines public policy

Review of Strategies for Thermal Efficiency in Landscape Planning of Cities for Conservation of Energy and Enhanced Climatic Resilience to Urban Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Imam, Aabshar U. K.; Banerjee, Uttam Kumar

2017-09-01

Thermal discomfort, increased energy consumption, and heat related stress are some of the most prominent consequences of urban warming. Instances of heat related deaths have been reported; the elderly and the poor remain especially vulnerable. Urban greening has often been cited as an economically efficient method for inducing ambient cooling. Consequently, increased impetus is given to provision of public green spaces. However, a general increase in urban green cover especially in the form of parks and green spaces may be inadequate to achieve desired results. This article serves to highlight the thermal heterogeneity of landcape elements and stresses on the need for strategic shade provision. The originality of this study lies in the fact that it provides a comparative review of energy conservation potential of public and private green spaces. It is found that large parks may not have substantial cooling effect on the indoor built environment. Moreover, people tend to spend more time indoors than outdoors. Thus the need for greening of private areas has become an undeniable climatic necessity. The potential of shade trees, green walls, and roof gardens for cooling of built environment are discussed with quantitative evidences of their thermal and economic benefits. Parameters incurring cost expenditure and weaknesses of the greening strategies are enumerated for enabling prudent selection/implementation of strategies. Proposals are generated to improve climatic resilience to urban warming and for diligent planning of cities.

Vulnerability of U.S. water supply to shortage: a technical document supporting the Forest Service 2010 RPA Assessment

Treesearch

Romano Foti; Jorge A. Ramirez; Thomas C. Brown

2012-01-01

Comparison of projected future water demand and supply across the conterminous United States indicates that, due to improving efficiency in water use, expected increases in population and economic activity do not by themselves pose a serious threat of large-scale water shortages. However, climate change can increase water demand and decrease water supply to the extent...

Climate change mitigation through livestock system transitions.

PubMed

Havlík, Petr; Valin, Hugo; Herrero, Mario; Obersteiner, Michael; Schmid, Erwin; Rufino, Mariana C; Mosnier, Aline; Thornton, Philip K; Böttcher, Hannes; Conant, Richard T; Frank, Stefan; Fritz, Steffen; Fuss, Sabine; Kraxner, Florian; Notenbaert, An

2014-03-11

Livestock are responsible for 12% of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Sustainable intensification of livestock production systems might become a key climate mitigation technology. However, livestock production systems vary substantially, making the implementation of climate mitigation policies a formidable challenge. Here, we provide results from an economic model using a detailed and high-resolution representation of livestock production systems. We project that by 2030 autonomous transitions toward more efficient systems would decrease emissions by 736 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent per year (MtCO2e⋅y(-1)), mainly through avoided emissions from the conversion of 162 Mha of natural land. A moderate mitigation policy targeting emissions from both the agricultural and land-use change sectors with a carbon price of US$10 per tCO2e could lead to an abatement of 3,223 MtCO2e⋅y(-1). Livestock system transitions would contribute 21% of the total abatement, intra- and interregional relocation of livestock production another 40%, and all other mechanisms would add 39%. A comparable abatement of 3,068 MtCO2e⋅y(-1) could be achieved also with a policy targeting only emissions from land-use change. Stringent climate policies might lead to reductions in food availability of up to 200 kcal per capita per day globally. We find that mitigation policies targeting emissions from land-use change are 5 to 10 times more efficient--measured in "total abatement calorie cost"--than policies targeting emissions from livestock only. Thus, fostering transitions toward more productive livestock production systems in combination with climate policies targeting the land-use change appears to be the most efficient lever to deliver desirable climate and food availability outcomes.

Probabilistic cost-benefit analysis of disaster risk management in a development context.

PubMed

Kull, Daniel; Mechler, Reinhard; Hochrainer-Stigler, Stefan

2013-07-01

Limited studies have shown that disaster risk management (DRM) can be cost-efficient in a development context. Cost-benefit analysis (CBA) is an evaluation tool to analyse economic efficiency. This research introduces quantitative, stochastic CBA frameworks and applies them in case studies of flood and drought risk reduction in India and Pakistan, while also incorporating projected climate change impacts. DRM interventions are shown to be economically efficient, with integrated approaches more cost-effective and robust than singular interventions. The paper highlights that CBA can be a useful tool if certain issues are considered properly, including: complexities in estimating risk; data dependency of results; negative effects of interventions; and distributional aspects. The design and process of CBA must take into account specific objectives, available information, resources, and the perceptions and needs of stakeholders as transparently as possible. Intervention design and uncertainties should be qualified through dialogue, indicating that process is as important as numerical results. © 2013 The Author(s). Journal compilation © Overseas Development Institute, 2013.

A quantitative evaluation of the public response to climate engineering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wright, Malcolm J.; Teagle, Damon A. H.; Feetham, Pamela M.

2014-02-01

Atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations continue to increase, with CO2 passing 400 parts per million in May 2013. To avoid severe climate change and the attendant economic and social dislocation, existing energy efficiency and emissions control initiatives may need support from some form of climate engineering. As climate engineering will be controversial, there is a pressing need to inform the public and understand their concerns before policy decisions are taken. So far, engagement has been exploratory, small-scale or technique-specific. We depart from past research to draw on the associative methods used by corporations to evaluate brands. A systematic, quantitative and comparative approach for evaluating public reaction to climate engineering is developed. Its application reveals that the overall public evaluation of climate engineering is negative. Where there are positive associations they favour carbon dioxide removal (CDR) over solar radiation management (SRM) techniques. Therefore, as SRM techniques become more widely known they are more likely to elicit negative reactions. Two climate engineering techniques, enhanced weathering and cloud brightening, have indistinct concept images and so are less likely to draw public attention than other CDR or SRM techniques.

Improvement of the organizational and economic mechanism for managing the development of alternative sources of electricity at the territorial level

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kirillova, Ariadna; Krylova, Anna

2017-10-01

The article considers the features of the structure and functioning of energy supply facilities for housing and communal services of municipalities with the identification and analysis of problems, substantiates the main directions of improving the organizational and economic mechanism for the development of alternative sources of electricity supply, taking into account modern innovative energy-efficient technologies. The choice of a rational option for electricity supply to settlements and the region is considered on the basis of an analysis of geographical, climatic and socio-economic conditions, as well as engineering and financial opportunities, the availability of trunk, interregional and other networks, the total installed capacity of regional power plants and a set of other technical and economic Characteristics inherent in the region and its municipalities.

Impact of Climate Conditions on Occupational Health and Related Economic Losses: A New Feature of Global and Urban Health in the Context of Climate Change.

PubMed

Kjellstrom, Tord

2016-03-01

One feature of climate change is the increasing heat exposure in many workplaces where efficient cooling systems cannot be applied. Excessive heat exposure is a particular problem for working people because of the internal heat production when muscle work is carried out. The physiological basis for severe heat stroke, other clinical effects, and heat exhaustion is well known. One feature of this health effect of excessive workplace heat exposure is reduced work capacity, and new research has started to quantify this effect in the context of climate change. Current climate conditions in tropical and subtropical parts of the world are already so hot during the hot seasons that occupational health effects occur and work capacity for many working people is affected. The Hothaps-Soft database and software andClimateCHIP.orgwebsite make it possible to rapidly produce estimates of local heat conditions and trends. The results can be mapped to depict the spatial distribution of workplace heat stress. In South-East Asia as much as 15% to 20% of annual work hours may already be lost in heat-exposed jobs, and this may double by 2050 as global climate change progresses. By combining heat exposure data and estimates of the economic consequences, the vulnerability of many low- and middle-income countries is evident. The annual cost of reduced labor productivity at country level already in 2030 can be several percent of GDP, which means billions of US dollars even for medium-size countries. The results provide new arguments for effective climate change adaptation and mitigation policies and preventive actions in all countries. © 2015 APJPH.

The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP): Protocols and Pilot Studies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rosenzweig, C.; Jones, J. W.; Hatfield, J. L.; Ruane, A. C.; Boote, K. J.; Thorburn, P.; Antle, J. M.; Nelson, G. C.; Porter, C.; Janssen, S.;

Sustainable Forest Operations (SFO): A new paradigm in a changing world and climate.

PubMed

Marchi, Enrico; Chung, Woodam; Visser, Rien; Abbas, Dalia; Nordfjell, Tomas; Mederski, Piotr S; McEwan, Andrew; Brink, Michal; Laschi, Andrea

2018-09-01

The effective implementation of sustainable forest management depends largely on carrying out forest operations in a sustainable manner. Climate change, as well as the increasing demand for forest products, requires a re-thinking of forest operations in terms of sustainability. In this context, it is important to understand the major driving factors for the future development of forest operations that promote economic, environmental and social well-being. The main objective of this paper is to identify important issues concerning forest operations and to propose a new paradigm towards sustainability in a changing climate, work and environmental conditions. Previously developed concepts of forest operations are reviewed, and a newly developed concept - Sustainable Forest Operations (SFO), is presented. Five key performance areas to ensure the sustainability of forest operations include: (i) environment; (ii) ergonomics; (iii) economics; (iv) quality optimization of products and production; and (v) people and society. Practical field examples are presented to demonstrate how these five interconnected principles are relevant to achieving sustainability, namely profit and wood quality maximization, ecological benefits, climate change mitigation, carbon sequestration, and forest workers' health and safety. The new concept of SFO provides integrated perspectives and approaches to effectively address ongoing and foreseeable challenges the global forest communities face, while balancing forest operations performance across economic, environmental and social sustainability. In this new concept, we emphasize the role of wood as a renewable and environmentally friendly material, and forest workers' safety and utilization efficiency and waste management as additional key elements of sustainability. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The Political Economy of Health Co-Benefits: Embedding Health in the Climate Change Agenda.

PubMed

Workman, Annabelle; Blashki, Grant; Bowen, Kathryn J; Karoly, David J; Wiseman, John

2018-04-04

A complex, whole-of-economy issue such as climate change demands an interdisciplinary, multi-sectoral response. However, evidence suggests that human health has remained elusive in its influence on the development of ambitious climate change mitigation policies for many national governments, despite a recognition that the combustion of fossil fuels results in pervasive short- and long-term health consequences. We use insights from literature on the political economy of health and climate change, the science–policy interface and power in policy-making, to identify additional barriers to the meaningful incorporation of health co-benefits into climate change mitigation policy development. Specifically, we identify four key interrelated areas where barriers may exist in relation to health co-benefits: discourse, efficiency, vested interests and structural challenges. With these insights in mind, we argue that the current politico-economic paradigm in which climate change is situated and the processes used to develop climate change mitigation policies do not adequately support accounting for health co-benefits. We present approaches for enhancing the role of health co-benefits in the development of climate change mitigation policies to ensure that health is embedded in the broader climate change agenda.

The Political Economy of Health Co-Benefits: Embedding Health in the Climate Change Agenda

PubMed Central

Workman, Annabelle; Blashki, Grant; Bowen, Kathryn J.; Karoly, David J.; Wiseman, John

2018-01-01

A complex, whole-of-economy issue such as climate change demands an interdisciplinary, multi-sectoral response. However, evidence suggests that human health has remained elusive in its influence on the development of ambitious climate change mitigation policies for many national governments, despite a recognition that the combustion of fossil fuels results in pervasive short- and long-term health consequences. We use insights from literature on the political economy of health and climate change, the science–policy interface and power in policy-making, to identify additional barriers to the meaningful incorporation of health co-benefits into climate change mitigation policy development. Specifically, we identify four key interrelated areas where barriers may exist in relation to health co-benefits: discourse, efficiency, vested interests and structural challenges. With these insights in mind, we argue that the current politico-economic paradigm in which climate change is situated and the processes used to develop climate change mitigation policies do not adequately support accounting for health co-benefits. We present approaches for enhancing the role of health co-benefits in the development of climate change mitigation policies to ensure that health is embedded in the broader climate change agenda. PMID:29617317

Computer Controlled Portable Greenhouse Climate Control System for Enhanced Energy Efficiency

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Datsenko, Anthony; Myer, Steve; Petties, Albert; Hustek, Ryan; Thompson, Mark

2010-04-01

This paper discusses a student project at Kettering University focusing on the design and construction of an energy efficient greenhouse climate control system. In order to maintain acceptable temperatures and stabilize temperature fluctuations in a portable plastic greenhouse economically, a computer controlled climate control system was developed to capture and store thermal energy incident on the structure during daylight periods and release the stored thermal energy during dark periods. The thermal storage mass for the greenhouse system consisted of a water filled base unit. The heat exchanger consisted of a system of PVC tubing. The control system used a programmable LabView computer interface to meet functional specifications that minimized temperature fluctuations and recorded data during operation. The greenhouse was a portable sized unit with a 5' x 5' footprint. Control input sensors were temperature, water level, and humidity sensors and output control devices were fan actuating relays and water fill solenoid valves. A Graphical User Interface was developed to monitor the system, set control parameters, and to provide programmable data recording times and intervals.

HOOPER BAY HOUSING ANALYSIS AND ENERGY FEASIBILITY REPORT

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

SEA LION CORPORATION; COLD CLIMATE HOUSING RESEARCH CENTER; SOLUTIONS FOR HEALTHY BREATHING

2012-12-30

Sea Lion applied for and received a grant from the Department of Energy (DOE) towards this end titled Energy Efficiency Development and Deployment in Indian Country. The initial objectives of the Hooper Bay Energy Efficiency Feasibility Study were to demonstrate a 30% reduction in residential/commercial energy usage and identify the economic benefits of implementing energy efficiency measures to the Tribe through: (1) partnering with Whitney Construction and Solutions for Healthy Breathing in the training and hire of 2 local energy assessors to conduct energy audits of 9 representative housing models and 2 commercial units in the community. These homes aremore » representative of 52 homes constructed across different eras. (2) partnering with Cold Climate Housing Research Center to document current electrical and heating energy consumption and analyze data for a final feasibility report (3) assessing the economics of electricity & heating fuel usage; (4) projecting energy savings or fossil fuel reduction by modeling of improvement scenarios and cost feasibility The following two objectives will be completed after the publication of this report: (5) the development of materials lists for energy efficiency improvements (6) identifying financing options for the follow-up energy efficiency implementation phase.« less

An economic evaluation of solar radiation management.

PubMed

Aaheim, Asbjørn; Romstad, Bård; Wei, Taoyuan; Kristjánsson, Jón Egill; Muri, Helene; Niemeier, Ulrike; Schmidt, Hauke

2015-11-01

Economic evaluations of solar radiation management (SRM) usually assume that the temperature will be stabilized, with no economic impacts of climate change, but with possible side-effects. We know from experiments with climate models, however, that unlike emission control the spatial and temporal distributions of temperature, precipitation and wind conditions will change. Hence, SRM may have economic consequences under a stabilization of global mean temperature even if side-effects other than those related to the climatic responses are disregarded. This paper addresses the economic impacts of implementing two SRM technologies; stratospheric sulfur injection and marine cloud brightening. By the use of a computable general equilibrium model, we estimate the economic impacts of climatic responses based on the results from two earth system models, MPI-ESM and NorESM. We find that under a moderately increasing greenhouse-gas concentration path, RCP4.5, the economic benefits of implementing climate engineering are small, and may become negative. Global GDP increases in three of the four experiments and all experiments include regions where the benefits from climate engineering are negative. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Are we preventing flood damage eco-efficiently? An integrated method applied to post-disaster emergency actions.

PubMed

Petit-Boix, Anna; Arahuetes, Ana; Josa, Alejandro; Rieradevall, Joan; Gabarrell, Xavier

2017-02-15

Flood damage results in economic and environmental losses in the society, but flood prevention also entails an initial investment in infrastructure. This study presents an integrated eco-efficiency approach for assessing flood prevention and avoided damage. We focused on ephemeral streams in the Maresme region (Catalonia, Spain), which is an urbanized area affected by damaging torrential events. Our goal was to determine the feasibility of post-disaster emergency actions implemented after a major event through an integrated hydrologic, environmental and economic approach. Life cycle assessment (LCA) and costing (LCC) were used to determine the eco-efficiency of these actions, and their net impact and payback were calculated by integrating avoided flood damage. Results showed that the actions effectively reduced damage generation when compared to the registered water flows and rainfall intensities. The eco-efficiency of the emergency actions resulted in 1.2kgCO 2 eq. per invested euro. When integrating the avoided damage into the initial investment, negative net impacts were obtained (e.g., -5.2E+05€ and -2.9E+04kgCO 2 eq. per event), which suggests that these interventions contributed with environmental and economic benefits to the society. The economic investment was recovered in two years, whereas the design could be improved to reduce their environmental footprint, which is recovered in 25years. Our method and results highlight the effects of integrating the environmental and economic consequences of decisions at an urban scale and might help the administration and insurance companies in the design of prevention plans and climate change adaptation. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Impacts of Considering Climate Variability on Investment Decisions in Ethiopia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Strzepek, K.; Block, P.; Rosegrant, M.; Diao, X.

2005-12-01

In Ethiopia, climate extremes, inducing droughts or floods, are not unusual. Monitoring the effects of these extremes, and climate variability in general, is critical for economic prediction and assessment of the country's future welfare. The focus of this study involves adding climate variability to a deterministic, mean climate-driven agro-economic model, in an attempt to understand its effects and degree of influence on general economic prediction indicators for Ethiopia. Four simulations are examined, including a baseline simulation and three investment strategies: simulations of irrigation investment, roads investment, and a combination investment of both irrigation and roads. The deterministic model is transformed into a stochastic model by dynamically adding year-to-year climate variability through climate-yield factors. Nine sets of actual, historic, variable climate data are individually assembled and implemented into the 12-year stochastic model simulation, producing an ensemble of economic prediction indicators. This ensemble allows for a probabilistic approach to planning and policy making, allowing decision makers to consider risk. The economic indicators from the deterministic and stochastic approaches, including rates of return to investments, are significantly different. The predictions of the deterministic model appreciably overestimate the future welfare of Ethiopia; the predictions of the stochastic model, utilizing actual climate data, tend to give a better semblance of what may be expected. Inclusion of climate variability is vital for proper analysis of the predictor values from this agro-economic model.

Fuel cell on-site integrated energy system parametric analysis of a residential complex

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Simons, S. N.

1977-01-01

A parametric energy-use analysis was performed for a large apartment complex served by a fuel cell on-site integrated energy system (OS/IES). The variables parameterized include operating characteristics for four phosphoric acid fuel cells, eight OS/IES energy recovery systems, and four climatic locations. The annual fuel consumption for selected parametric combinations are presented and a breakeven economic analysis is presented for one parametric combination. The results show fuel cell electrical efficiency and system component choice have the greatest effect on annual fuel consumption; fuel cell thermal efficiency and geographic location have less of an effect.

Estimates of the long-term U.S. economic impacts of global climate change-induced drought.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ehlen, Mark Andrew; Loose, Verne W.; Warren, Drake E.

2010-01-01

While climate-change models have done a reasonable job of forecasting changes in global climate conditions over the past decades, recent data indicate that actual climate change may be much more severe. To better understand some of the potential economic impacts of these severe climate changes, Sandia economists estimated the impacts to the U.S. economy of climate change-induced impacts to U.S. precipitation over the 2010 to 2050 time period. The economists developed an impact methodology that converts changes in precipitation and water availability to changes in economic activity, and conducted simulations of economic impacts using a large-scale macroeconomic model of themore » U.S. economy.« less

Globalization to amplify economic climate losses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Otto, C.; Wenz, L.; Levermann, A.

2015-12-01

Economic welfare under enhanced anthropogenic carbon emissions and associated future warming poses a major challenge for a society with an evolving globally connected economy. Unabated climate change will impact economic output for example through heat-stress-related reductions in productivity. Since meteorologically-induced production reductions can propagate along supply chains, structural changes in the economic network may influence climate-related losses. The role of the economic network evolution for climate impacts has been neither quantified nor qualitatively understood. Here we show that since the beginning of the 21st century the structural change of the global supply network has been such that an increase of spillover losses due to unanticipated climatic events has to be expected. We quantify primary, secondary and higher-order losses from reduced labor productivity under past and present economic and climatic conditions and find that indirect losses are significant and increase with rising temperatures. The connectivity of the economic network has increased in such a way as to foster the propagation of production loss. This supply chain connectivity robustly exhibits the characteristic distribution of self-organized criticality which has been shifted towards higher values since 2001. Losses due to this structural evolution dominated over the effect of comparably weak climatic changes during this decade. Our finding suggests that the current form of globalization may amplify losses due to climatic extremes and thus necessitate structural adaptation that requires more foresight than presently prevalent.

The Potential of Solar as Alternative Energy Source for Socio-Economic Wellbeing in Rural Areas, Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alam, Rashidah Zainal; Siwar, Chamhuri; Ludin, Norasikin Ahmad

Malaysia's energy sector is highly dependent on fossil fuels as a primary energy source. Economic growth and socio-economic wellbeing also rely on the utilization of energy in daily life routine. Nevertheless, the increasing cost for electricity and declining fossil fuels resources causes various negative impacts to the people and environment especially in rural areas. This prompted Malaysia to shift towards alternative energy sources such as solar energy to ensure social, economic and environmental benefits. The solar energy is one of the potential renewable energy sources in tropical countries particularly in Malaysia. The paper attempts to analyze the benefits and advantages related to energy efficiency of solar for sustainable energy use and socio economic wellbeing in rural areas, Malaysia. The paper uses secondary sources of data such as policies, regulations and research reports from relevant ministries and agencies to attain the objectives. As a signatory country to the UN Convention on Climate Change and the Kyoto Protocol, Malaysia has taken initiatives for decreasing energy dependence on oil to reduce greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) for sustainable development. The paper shows solar energy becomes one of the promising alternative energy sources to alleviate energy poverty in Malaysia for rural areas. Finally, solar energy has increased socio-economic wellbeing and develops green potential and toward achieving energy efficiency in energy sector of Malaysia by preserving environment as well as reducing carbon emission.

Sensitivity of projected long-term CO2 emissions across the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marangoni, G.; Tavoni, M.; Bosetti, V.; Borgonovo, E.; Capros, P.; Fricko, O.; Gernaat, D. E. H. J.; Guivarch, C.; Havlik, P.; Huppmann, D.; Johnson, N.; Karkatsoulis, P.; Keppo, I.; Krey, V.; Ó Broin, E.; Price, J.; van Vuuren, D. P.

2017-01-01

Scenarios showing future greenhouse gas emissions are needed to estimate climate impacts and the mitigation efforts required for climate stabilization. Recently, the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) have been introduced to describe alternative social, economic and technical narratives, spanning a wide range of plausible futures in terms of challenges to mitigation and adaptation. Thus far the key drivers of the uncertainty in emissions projections have not been robustly disentangled. Here we assess the sensitivities of future CO2 emissions to key drivers characterizing the SSPs. We use six state-of-the-art integrated assessment models with different structural characteristics, and study the impact of five families of parameters, related to population, income, energy efficiency, fossil fuel availability, and low-carbon energy technology development. A recently developed sensitivity analysis algorithm allows us to parsimoniously compute both the direct and interaction effects of each of these drivers on cumulative emissions. The study reveals that the SSP assumptions about energy intensity and economic growth are the most important determinants of future CO2 emissions from energy combustion, both with and without a climate policy. Interaction terms between parameters are shown to be important determinants of the total sensitivities.

Control of heat and humidity in German mines

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Schlotte, W.

1999-07-01

In order to increase the economic efficiency of West European hard coal, great efforts are being made at present in the coal-producing countries to lower production costs. This aim is to be achieved in Germany, among other things, by a drastic increase in the saleable output per working face up to an average of 10,000 t/d in these cases where very long longwall faces (400 m {+-} 50 m) are possible. With the substantially greater heat input into the air stream which this involves, there is the danger that climatic limits will be exceeded even at longwall faces with lowermore » than average rock temperatures. Working in high temperatures and/or humidities can lead to risky lack of concentration of the miners to heat collapse and extremely dangerous heat stroke. In order to minimize the costs for mine climate control well-proven planning software and climitization technology is necessary for underground workings. With the DMT climate simulation programs, both the dry and the extremely significant humid heat transfer can be calculated and the optimum air cooling system for a mine can be designed with due regard to technical and economic aspects.« less

The future of global water stress: An integrated assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schlosser, C. Adam; Strzepek, Kenneth; Gao, Xiang; Fant, Charles; Blanc, Élodie; Paltsev, Sergey; Jacoby, Henry; Reilly, John; Gueneau, Arthur

2014-08-01

We assess the ability of global water systems, resolved at 282 assessment subregions (ASRs), to the meet water requirements under integrated projections of socioeconomic growth and climate change. We employ a water resource system (WRS) component embedded within the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) framework in a suite of simulations that consider a range of climate policies and regional hydroclimate changes out to 2050. For many developing nations, water demand increases due to population growth and economic activity have a much stronger effect on water stress than climate change. By 2050, economic growth and population change alone can lead to an additional 1.8 billion people living under at least moderate water stress, with 80% of these located in developing countries. Uncertain regional climate change can play a secondary role to either exacerbate or dampen the increase in water stress. The strongest climate impacts on water stress are observed in Africa, but strong impacts also occur over Europe, Southeast Asia, and North America. The combined effects of socioeconomic growth and uncertain climate change lead to a 1.0-1.3 billion increase of the world's 2050 projected population living with overly exploited water conditions—where total potential water requirements will consistently exceed surface water supply. This would imply that adaptive measures would be taken to meet these surface water shortfalls and include: water-use efficiency, reduced and/or redirected consumption, recurrent periods of water emergencies or curtailments, groundwater depletion, additional interbasin transfers, and overdraw from flow intended to maintain environmental requirements.

Introduction to health economics and decision-making: Is economics relevant for the frontline clinician?

PubMed

Goeree, Ron; Diaby, Vakaramoko

2013-12-01

In a climate of escalating demands for new health care services and significant constraints on new resources, the disciplines of health economics and health technology assessment (HTA) have increasingly been turned to as explicit evidence-based frameworks to help make tough health care access and reimbursement decisions. Health economics is the discipline of economics concerned with the efficient allocation of health care resources, essentially trying to maximize health benefits to society contingent upon available resources. HTA is a broader field drawing upon several disciplines, but which relies heavily upon the tools of health economics and economic evaluation. Traditionally, health economics and economic evaluation have been widely used at the political (macro) and local (meso) decision-making levels, and have progressively had an important role even at informing individual clinical decisions (micro level). The aim of this paper is to introduce readers to health economics and discuss its relevance to frontline clinicians. Particularly, the content of the paper will facilitate clinicians' understanding of the link between economics and their medical practice, and how clinical decision-making reflects on health care resource allocation. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Economic Value of Weather and Climate Forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Katz, Richard W.; Murphy, Allan H.

1997-06-01

Weather and climate extremes can significantly impact the economics of a region. This book examines how weather and climate forecasts can be used to mitigate the impact of the weather on the economy. Interdisciplinary in scope, it explores the meteorological, economic, psychological, and statistical aspects of weather prediction. Chapters by area specialists provide a comprehensive view of this timely topic. They encompass forecasts over a wide range of temporal scales, from weather over the next few hours to the climate months or seasons ahead, and address the impact of these forecasts on human behavior. Economic Value of Weather and Climate Forecasts seeks to determine the economic benefits of existing weather forecasting systems and the incremental benefits of improving these systems, and will be an interesting and essential text for economists, statisticians, and meteorologists.

An Integrated Systems Approach to Designing Climate Change Adaptation Policy in Water Resources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ryu, D.; Malano, H. M.; Davidson, B.; George, B.

2014-12-01

Climate change projections are characterised by large uncertainties with rainfall variability being the key challenge in designing adaptation policies. Climate change adaptation in water resources shows all the typical characteristics of 'wicked' problems typified by cognitive uncertainty as new scientific knowledge becomes available, problem instability, knowledge imperfection and strategic uncertainty due to institutional changes that inevitably occur over time. Planning that is characterised by uncertainties and instability requires an approach that can accommodate flexibility and adaptive capacity for decision-making. An ability to take corrective measures in the event that scenarios and responses envisaged initially derive into forms at some future stage. We present an integrated-multidisciplinary and comprehensive framework designed to interface and inform science and decision making in the formulation of water resource management strategies to deal with climate change in the Musi Catchment of Andhra Pradesh, India. At the core of this framework is a dialogue between stakeholders, decision makers and scientists to define a set of plausible responses to an ensemble of climate change scenarios derived from global climate modelling. The modelling framework used to evaluate the resulting combination of climate scenarios and adaptation responses includes the surface and groundwater assessment models (SWAT & MODFLOW) and the water allocation modelling (REALM) to determine the water security of each adaptation strategy. Three climate scenarios extracted from downscaled climate models were selected for evaluation together with four agreed responses—changing cropping patterns, increasing watershed development, changing the volume of groundwater extraction and improving irrigation efficiency. Water security in this context is represented by the combination of level of water availability and its associated security of supply for three economic activities (agriculture, urban, industrial) on a spatially distributed basis. The resulting combinations of climate scenarios and adaptation responses were subjected to a combined hydro-economic assessment based on the degree of water security together with its cost-effectiveness against the Business-as-usual scenario.

Emergent dynamics of the climate-economy system in the Anthropocene.

PubMed

Kellie-Smith, Owen; Cox, Peter M

2011-03-13

Global CO(2) emissions are understood to be the largest contributor to anthropogenic climate change, and have, to date, been highly correlated with economic output. However, there is likely to be a negative feedback between climate change and human wealth: economic growth is typically associated with an increase in CO(2) emissions and global warming, but the resulting climate change may lead to damages that suppress economic growth. This climate-economy feedback is assumed to be weak in standard climate change assessments. When the feedback is incorporated in a transparently simple model it reveals possible emergent behaviour in the coupled climate-economy system. Formulae are derived for the critical rates of growth of global CO(2) emissions that cause damped or long-term boom-bust oscillations in human wealth, thereby preventing a soft landing of the climate-economy system. On the basis of this model, historical rates of economic growth and decarbonization appear to put the climate-economy system in a potentially damaging oscillatory regime.

Economic growth, climate change, biodiversity loss: distributive justice for the global north and south.

PubMed

Rosales, Jon

2008-12-01

Economic growth-the increase in production and consumption of goods and services-must be considered within its biophysical context. Economic growth is fueled by biophysical inputs and its outputs degrade ecological processes, such as the global climate system. Economic growth is currently the principal cause of increased climate change, and climate change is a primary mechanism of biodiversity loss. Therefore, economic growth is a prime catalyst of biodiversity loss. Because people desire economic growth for dissimilar reasons-some for the increased accumulation of wealth, others for basic needs-how we limit economic growth becomes an ethical problem. Principles of distributive justice can help construct an international climate-change regime based on principles of equity. An equity-based framework that caps economic growth in the most polluting economies will lessen human impact on biodiversity. When coupled with a cap-and-trade mechanism, the framework can also provide a powerful tool for redistribution of wealth. Such an equity-based framework promises to be more inclusive and therefore more effective because it accounts for the disparate developmental conditions of the global north and south.

A top-down approach to projecting market impacts of climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lemoine, Derek; Kapnick, Sarah

2016-01-01

To evaluate policies to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions, economic models require estimates of how future climate change will affect well-being. So far, nearly all estimates of the economic impacts of future warming have been developed by combining estimates of impacts in individual sectors of the economy. Recent work has used variation in warming over time and space to produce top-down estimates of how past climate and weather shocks have affected economic output. Here we propose a statistical framework for converting these top-down estimates of past economic costs of regional warming into projections of the economic cost of future global warming. Combining the latest physical climate models, socioeconomic projections, and economic estimates of past impacts, we find that future warming could raise the expected rate of economic growth in richer countries, reduce the expected rate of economic growth in poorer countries, and increase the variability of growth by increasing the climate's variability. This study suggests we should rethink the focus on global impacts and the use of deterministic frameworks for modelling impacts and policy.

Ecological risk caused by land use change in the coastal zone: a case study in the Yellow River Delta High-Efficiency Ecological Economic Zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Di, X. H.; Wang, Y. D.; Hou, X. Y.

2014-03-01

China's coastal zone plays an important role in ecological services production and social-economic development; however, extensive and intensive land resource utilization and land use change have lead to high ecological risk in this area during last decade. Regional ecological risk assessment can provide fundamental knowledge and scientific basis for better understanding of the relationship between regional landscape ecosystem and human activities or climate changes, facilitating the optimization strategy of land use structure and improving the ecological risk prevention capability. In this paper, the Yellow River Delta High-Efficiency Ecological Economic Zone is selected as the study site, which is undergoing a new round of coastal zone exploitation and has endured substantial land use change in the past decade. Land use maps of 2000, 2005 and 2010 were generated based on Landsat images by visual interpretation method, and the ecological risk index was then calculated. The index was 0.3314, 0.3461 and 0.3176 in 2000, 2005 and 2010 respectively, which showed a positive transition of regional ecological risk in 2005.

An impact assessment of sustainable technologies for the Chinese urban residential sector at provincial level

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xing, Rui; Hanaoka, Tatsuya; Kanamori, Yuko; Dai, Hancheng; Masui, Toshihiko

2015-06-01

Recently, energy use in the urban residential sector of China has drastically increased due to higher incomes and urbanization. The fossil fuels dominant energy supply has since worsened the air quality, especially in urban areas. In this study we estimate the future energy service demands in Chinese urban residential areas, and then use an AIM/Enduse model to evaluate the emission reduction potential of CO2, SO2, NOx and PM. Considering the climate diversity and its impact on household energy service demands, our analysis is down-scaled to the provincial-level. The results show that in most of the regions, penetration of efficient technologies will bring CO2 emission reductions of over 20% compared to the baseline by the year 2030. Deployment of energy efficient technologies also co-benefits GHG emission reduction. However, efficient technology selection appears to differ across provinces due to climatic variation and economic disparity. For instance, geothermal heating technology is effective for the cold Northern areas while biomass technology contributes to emission reduction the most in the warm Southern areas.

The impact of climate change on the BRICS economies: The case of insurance demand.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ranger, N.; Surminski, S.

2012-04-01

Session ERE5.1 Climate change impact on economical and industrial activities The impact of climate change on the BRICS economies: The case of insurance demand. Over the past decade, growth in the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) economies has been a key driver of global economic growth. Current forecasts suggest that these markets will continue to be areas of significant growth for a large number of industries. We consider how climate change may influence these trends in the period to 2030, a time horizon that is long in terms of strategic planning in industry, but relatively short for climate change analysis, where the impacts are predicted to be most significant beyond around 2050. Based on current evidence, we expect climate change to affect the BRICS economies in four main ways: 1. The impact of physical climatic changes on the productivity of climate-sensitive economic activity, the local environment, human health and wellbeing, and damages from extreme weather. 2. Changing patterns of investment in climate risk management and adaptation 3. Changing patterns of investments in areas affected by greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation policy, 4. The impacts of the above globally, including on international trade, growth, investment, policy, migration and commodity prices, and their impacts on the BRICS. We review the evidence on the impacts of climate change in the BRICS and then apply this to one particular industry sector: non-life insurance. We propose five potential pathways through which climate change could influence insurance demand: economic growth; willingness to pay for insurance; public policy and regulation; the insurability of natural catastrophe risks; and new opportunities associated with adaptation and greenhouse gas mitigation. We conclude that, with the exception of public policy and regulation, the influence of climate change on insurance demand to 2030 is likely to be small when compared with the expected growth due to rising incomes. The scale of the impacts and their direction depend to some extent on (re)insurer responses to the challenges of climate change. We outline five actions that could pave the way for future opportunities in the industry. Authors of the paper: Ranger, Nicola (Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy/ Grantham Research Institute, London School of Economics, London, UK) and Surminski, Swenja (Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy/ Grantham Research Institute, London School of Economics, London, UK)

Enhanced DEA model with undesirable output and interval data for rice growing farmers performance assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khan, Sahubar Ali Mohd. Nadhar; Ramli, Razamin; Baten, M. D. Azizul

2015-12-01

Agricultural production process typically produces two types of outputs which are economic desirable as well as environmentally undesirable outputs (such as greenhouse gas emission, nitrate leaching, effects to human and organisms and water pollution). In efficiency analysis, this undesirable outputs cannot be ignored and need to be included in order to obtain the actual estimation of firms efficiency. Additionally, climatic factors as well as data uncertainty can significantly affect the efficiency analysis. There are a number of approaches that has been proposed in DEA literature to account for undesirable outputs. Many researchers has pointed that directional distance function (DDF) approach is the best as it allows for simultaneous increase in desirable outputs and reduction of undesirable outputs. Additionally, it has been found that interval data approach is the most suitable to account for data uncertainty as it is much simpler to model and need less information regarding its distribution and membership function. In this paper, an enhanced DEA model based on DDF approach that considers undesirable outputs as well as climatic factors and interval data is proposed. This model will be used to determine the efficiency of rice farmers who produces undesirable outputs and operates under uncertainty. It is hoped that the proposed model will provide a better estimate of rice farmers' efficiency.

Applying the global RCP-SSP-SPA scenario framework at sub-national scale: A multi-scale and participatory scenario approach.

PubMed

Kebede, Abiy S; Nicholls, Robert J; Allan, Andrew; Arto, Iñaki; Cazcarro, Ignacio; Fernandes, Jose A; Hill, Chris T; Hutton, Craig W; Kay, Susan; Lázár, Attila N; Macadam, Ian; Palmer, Matthew; Suckall, Natalie; Tompkins, Emma L; Vincent, Katharine; Whitehead, Paul W

2018-09-01

To better anticipate potential impacts of climate change, diverse information about the future is required, including climate, society and economy, and adaptation and mitigation. To address this need, a global RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways), SSP (Shared Socio-economic Pathways), and SPA (Shared climate Policy Assumptions) (RCP-SSP-SPA) scenario framework has been developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC-AR5). Application of this full global framework at sub-national scales introduces two key challenges: added complexity in capturing the multiple dimensions of change, and issues of scale. Perhaps for this reason, there are few such applications of this new framework. Here, we present an integrated multi-scale hybrid scenario approach that combines both expert-based and participatory methods. The framework has been developed and applied within the DECCMA 1 project with the purpose of exploring migration and adaptation in three deltas across West Africa and South Asia: (i) the Volta delta (Ghana), (ii) the Mahanadi delta (India), and (iii) the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) delta (Bangladesh/India). Using a climate scenario that encompasses a wide range of impacts (RCP8.5) combined with three SSP-based socio-economic scenarios (SSP2, SSP3, SSP5), we generate highly divergent and challenging scenario contexts across multiple scales against which robustness of the human and natural systems within the deltas are tested. In addition, we consider four distinct adaptation policy trajectories: Minimum intervention, Economic capacity expansion, System efficiency enhancement, and System restructuring, which describe alternative future bundles of adaptation actions/measures under different socio-economic trajectories. The paper highlights the importance of multi-scale (combined top-down and bottom-up) and participatory (joint expert-stakeholder) scenario methods for addressing uncertainty in adaptation decision-making. The framework facilitates improved integrated assessments of the potential impacts and plausible adaptation policy choices (including migration) under uncertain future changing conditions. The concept, methods, and processes presented are transferable to other sub-national socio-ecological settings with multi-scale challenges. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Socio-economic and climate change impacts on agriculture: an integrated assessment, 1990–2080

PubMed Central

Fischer, Günther; Shah, Mahendra; N. Tubiello, Francesco; van Velhuizen, Harrij

2005-01-01

A comprehensive assessment of the impacts of climate change on agro-ecosystems over this century is developed, up to 2080 and at a global level, albeit with significant regional detail. To this end an integrated ecological–economic modelling framework is employed, encompassing climate scenarios, agro-ecological zoning information, socio-economic drivers, as well as world food trade dynamics. Specifically, global simulations are performed using the FAO/IIASA agro-ecological zone model, in conjunction with IIASAs global food system model, using climate variables from five different general circulation models, under four different socio-economic scenarios from the intergovernmental panel on climate change. First, impacts of different scenarios of climate change on bio-physical soil and crop growth determinants of yield are evaluated on a 5′×5′ latitude/longitude global grid; second, the extent of potential agricultural land and related potential crop production is computed. The detailed bio-physical results are then fed into an economic analysis, to assess how climate impacts may interact with alternative development pathways, and key trends expected over this century for food demand and production, and trade, as well as key composite indices such as risk of hunger and malnutrition, are computed. This modelling approach connects the relevant bio-physical and socio-economic variables within a unified and coherent framework to produce a global assessment of food production and security under climate change. The results from the study suggest that critical impact asymmetries due to both climate and socio-economic structures may deepen current production and consumption gaps between developed and developing world; it is suggested that adaptation of agricultural techniques will be central to limit potential damages under climate change. PMID:16433094

The Impacts and Economic Costs of Climate Change in Agriculture and the Costs and Benefits of Adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iglesias, A.; Quiroga, S.; Garrote, L.; Cunningham, R.

2012-04-01

This paper provides monetary estimates of the effects of agricultural adaptation to climate change in Europe. The model computes spatial crop productivity changes as a response to climate change linking biophysical and socioeconomic components. It combines available data sets of crop productivity changes under climate change (Iglesias et al 2011, Ciscar et al 2011), statistical functions of productivity response to water and nitrogen inputs, catchment level water availability, and environmental policy scenarios. Future global change scenarios are derived from several socio-economic futures of representative concentration pathways and regional climate models. The economic valuation is conducted by using GTAP general equilibrium model. The marginal productivity changes has been used as an input for the economic general equilibrium model in order to analyse the economic impact of the agricultural changes induced by climate change in the world. The study also includes the analysis of an adaptive capacity index computed by using the socio-economic results of GTAP. The results are combined to prioritize agricultural adaptation policy needs in Europe.

Climate change, urbanization, and optimal long-term floodplain protection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Tingju; Lund, Jay R.; Jenkins, Marion W.; Marques, Guilherme F.; Ritzema, Randall S.

2007-06-01

This paper examines levee-protected floodplains and economic aspects of adaptation to increasing long-term flood risk due to urbanization and climate change. The lower American River floodplain in the Sacramento, California, metropolitan area is used as an illustration to explore the course of optimal floodplain protection decisions over long periods. A dynamic programming model is developed and suggests economically desirable adaptations for floodplain levee systems given simultaneous changes in flood climate and urban land values. Economic engineering optimization analyses of several climate change and urbanization scenarios are made. Sensitivity analyses consider assumptions about future values of floodplain land and damageable property along with the discount rate. Methodological insights and policy lessons are drawn from modeling results, reflecting the joint effects and relationships that climate, economic costs, and regional economic growth can have on floodplain levee planning decisions.

A multi-disciplinary approach for the integrated assessment of multiple risks in delta areas.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sperotto, Anna; Torresan, Silvia; Critto, Andrea; Marcomini, Antonio

2016-04-01

The assessment of climate change related risks is notoriously difficult due to the complex and uncertain combinations of hazardous events that might happen, the multiplicity of physical processes involved, the continuous changes and interactions of environmental and socio-economic systems. One important challenge lies in predicting and modelling cascades of natural and man -made hazard events which can be triggered by climate change, encompassing different spatial and temporal scales. Another regard the potentially difficult integration of environmental, social and economic disciplines in the multi-risk concept. Finally, the effective interaction between scientists and stakeholders is essential to ensure that multi-risk knowledge is translated into efficient adaptation and management strategies. The assessment is even more complex at the scale of deltaic systems which are particularly vulnerable to global environmental changes, due to the fragile equilibrium between the presence of valuable natural ecosystems and relevant economic activities. Improving our capacity to assess the combined effects of multiple hazards (e.g. sea-level rise, storm surges, reduction in sediment load, local subsidence, saltwater intrusion) is therefore essential to identify timely opportunities for adaptation. A holistic multi-risk approach is here proposed to integrate terminology, metrics and methodologies from different research fields (i.e. environmental, social and economic sciences) thus creating shared knowledge areas to advance multi risk assessment and management in delta regions. A first testing of the approach, including the application of Bayesian network analysis for the assessment of impacts of climate change on key natural systems (e.g. wetlands, protected areas, beaches) and socio-economic activities (e.g. agriculture, tourism), is applied in the Po river delta in Northern Italy. The approach is based on a bottom-up process involving local stakeholders early in different stages of the multi-risk assessment process (i.e. identification of objectives, collection of data, definition of risk thresholds and indicators). The results of the assessment will allow the development of multi-risk scenarios enabling the evaluation and prioritization of risk management and adaptation options under changing climate conditions.

Comparative study on Climate Change Policies in the EU and China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bray, M.; Han, D.

2012-04-01

Both the EU and China are among the largest CO2 emitters in the world; their climate actions and policies have profound impacts on global climate change and may influence the activities in other countries. Evidence of climate change has been observed across Europe and China. Despite the many differences between the two regions, the European Commission and Chinese government support climate change actions. The EU has three priority areas in climate change: 1) understanding, monitoring and predicting climate change and its impact; 2) providing tools to analyse the effectiveness, cost and benefits of different policy options for mitigating climate change and adapting to its impacts; 3) improving, demonstrating and deploying existing climate friendly technologies and developing the technologies of the future. China is very vulnerable to climate change, because of its vast population, fast economic development, and fragile ecological environment. The priority policies in China are: 1) Carbon Trading Policy; 2) Financing Loan Policy (Special Funds for Renewable Energy Development); 3) Energy Efficiency Labelling Policy; 4) Subsidy Policy. In addition, China has formulated the "Energy Conservation Law", "Renewable Energy Law", "Cleaner Production Promotion Law" and "Circular Economy Promotion Law". Under the present EU Framework Programme FP7 there is a large number of funded research activities linked to climate change research. Current climate change research projects concentrate on the carbon cycle, water quality and availability, climate change predictors, predicting future climate and understanding past climates. Climate change-related scientific and technological projects in China are mostly carried out through national scientific and technological research programs. Areas under investigation include projections and impact of global climate change, the future trends of living environment change in China, countermeasures and supporting technologies of global environment change, formation mechanism and prediction theory of major climate and weather disasters in China, technologies of efficient use of clean energy, energy conservation and improvement of energy efficiency, development and utilisation technology of renewable energy and new energy. The EU recognises that developing countries, such as China and India, need to strengthen their economies through industrialisation. However this needs to be achieved at the same time as protecting the environment and sustainable use of energy. The EU has committed itself to assisting developing countries to achieve their goals in four priority areas: 1) raising the policy profile of climate change; 2) support for adaption to climate change; 3) support for mitigation of climate change; and 4) capacity development. This comparative study is part of the EU funded SPRING project which seeks to understand and assess Chinese and European competencies, with the aim of facilitating greater cooperation in future climate and environment research.

Planning Framework for a Climate-Resilient Economy

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This framework can help communities assess their economic vulnerability to climate change and identify ways to build economic resilience and take advantage of opportunities that might arise as the climate changes.

Essays on equity-efficiency trade offs in energy and climate policies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sesmero, Juan P.

Economic efficiency and societal equity are two important goals of public policy. Energy and climate policies have the potential to affect both. Efficiency is increased by substituting low-carbon energy for fossil energy (mitigating an externality) while equity is served if such substitution enhances consumption opportunities of unfavored groups (low income households or future generations). However policies that are effective in reducing pollution may not be so effective in redistributing consumption and vice-versa. This dissertation explores potential trade-offs between equity and efficiency arising in energy and climate policies. Chapter 1 yields two important results. First, while effective in reducing pollution, energy efficiency policies may fall short in protecting future generations from resource depletion. Second, deployment of technologies that increase the ease with which capital can substitute for energy may enhance the ability of societies to sustain consumption and achieve intertemporal equity. Results in Chapter 1 imply that technologies more intensive in capital and materials and less intensive in carbon such as corn ethanol may be effective in enhancing intertemporal equity. However the effectiveness of corn ethanol (relative to other technologies) in reducing emissions will depend upon the environmental performance of the industry. Chapter 2 measures environmental efficiency of ethanol plants, identifies ways to enhance performance, and calculates the cost of such improvements based on a survey of ethanol plants in the US. Results show that plants may be able to increase profits and reduce emissions simultaneously rendering the ethanol industry more effective in tackling efficiency. Finally while cap and trade proposals are designed to correcting a market failure by reducing pollution, allocation of emission allowances may affect income distribution and, hence, intra-temporal equity. Chapter 3 proves that under plausible conditions on preferences and technology increasing efficiency requires greater transfers to low income households the higher the effect of these transfers on the price of permits and the lower their effect on the price of consumption goods. This denotes market conditions under which efficiency and equity are complementary goals.

Climate change damages to Alaska public infrastructure and the economics of proactive adaptation

EPA Science Inventory

Climate change in the circumpolar region is causing dramatic environmental change that increases the vulnerability of the built environment. We quantified the economic impacts of climate change on Alaska’s public infrastructure under relatively high and low climate forcing scenar...

Application of the new scenario framework for climate change research: Future social vulnerability in large urban areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rohat, Guillaume; Flacke, Johannes; Dao, Hy

2016-04-01

It is by now widely acknowledged that future social vulnerability to climate change depends on both future climate state and future socio-economic conditions. Nevertheless, while most of the vulnerability assessments are using climate projections, the integration of socio-economic projections into the assessment of vulnerabilities has been very limited. Up to now, the vast majority of vulnerability assessments has been using current socio-economic conditions, hence has failed to consider the influence of socio-economic developments in the construction of vulnerability. To enhance the use of socio-economic projections into climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability assessments, the climate change research community has been recently involved in the development of a new model for creating scenarios that integrate future changes in climate as well as in society, known under the name of the new scenario framework for climate change research. This theoretical framework is made of a set of alternative futures of socio-economic developments (known as shared socio-economic pathways - SSPs), a set of hypothesis about future climate policies (known as shared policy assumptions - SPAs) and a set of greenhouse gas concentration trajectories (known as representative concentration pathways - RCPs), which are all combined into a scenario matrix architecture (SMA) whose aim is to facilitate the use of this framework. Despite calls by the climate change research community for the use of this conceptual framework in impacts, adaptation and vulnerability research, its use and its assessment has been very limited. Focusing on case-studies (i.e. specific cities as well as specific climate impacts and their associated human exposures and vulnerabilities), the study presented here will attempt to operationalize this theoretical framework for the assessment of future social vulnerability in large urban areas. A particular attention will be paid to less advanced and more vulnerable countries in the global south. We will discuss how this framework can be implemented for large urban agglomerations. To do so, we will examine: (i) by what means globally-developed SSPs can be extended into sector-specific and location-specific socio-economic development scenarios, (ii) in what manner the quantification of key socio-economic indicators (in accordance with the different SSPs), coupled with regional climate projections under different RCPs, can lead to a quantitative and reliable assessment of the evolution of future social vulnerability, and (iii) to which extent the SMA, i.e. the combination of extended SSPs, regional climate projections (under different RCPs) and various locally-developed SPAs, can answer some of the key questions regarding climate change adaptation policies, from a vulnerability perspective.

The regrets of procrastination in climate policy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keller, Klaus; Robinson, Alexander; Bradford, David F.; Oppenheimer, Michael

2007-04-01

Anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are projected to impose economic costs due to the associated climate change impacts. Climate change impacts can be reduced by abating CO2 emissions. What would be an economically optimal investment in abating CO2 emissions? Economic models typically suggest that reducing CO2 emissions by roughly ten to twenty per cent relative to business-as-usual would be an economically optimal strategy. The currently implemented CO2 abatement of a few per cent falls short of this benchmark. Hence, the global community may be procrastinating in implementing an economically optimal strategy. Here we use a simple economic model to estimate the regrets of this procrastination—the economic costs due to the suboptimal strategy choice. The regrets of procrastination can range from billions to trillions of US dollars. The regrets increase with increasing procrastination period and with decreasing limits on global mean temperature increase. Extended procrastination may close the window of opportunity to avoid crossing temperature limits interpreted by some as 'dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system' in the sense of Article 2 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Global Climate Change.

Potential economic benefits of adapting agricultural production systems to future climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fagre, Daniel B.; Pederson, Gregory; Bengtson, Lindsey E.; Prato, Tony; Qui, Zeyuan; Williams, Jimmie R.

2010-01-01

Potential economic impacts of future climate change on crop enterprise net returns and annual net farm income (NFI) are evaluated for small and large representative farms in Flathead Valley in Northwest Montana. Crop enterprise net returns and NFI in an historical climate period (1960–2005) and future climate period (2006–2050) are compared when agricultural production systems (APSs) are adapted to future climate change. Climate conditions in the future climate period are based on the A1B, B1, and A2 CO2 emission scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report. Steps in the evaluation include: (1) specifying crop enterprises and APSs (i.e., combinations of crop enterprises) in consultation with locals producers; (2) simulating crop yields for two soils, crop prices, crop enterprises costs, and NFIs for APSs; (3) determining the dominant APS in the historical and future climate periods in terms of NFI; and (4) determining whether NFI for the dominant APS in the historical climate period is superior to NFI for the dominant APS in the future climate period. Crop yields are simulated using the Environmental/Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model and dominance comparisons for NFI are based on the stochastic efficiency with respect to a function (SERF) criterion. Probability distributions that best fit the EPIC-simulated crop yields are used to simulate 100 values for crop yields for the two soils in the historical and future climate periods. Best-fitting probability distributions for historical inflation-adjusted crop prices and specified triangular probability distributions for crop enterprise costs are used to simulate 100 values for crop prices and crop enterprise costs. Averaged over all crop enterprises, farm sizes, and soil types, simulated net return per ha averaged over all crop enterprises decreased 24% and simulated mean NFI for APSs decreased 57% between the historical and future climate periods. Although adapting APSs to future climate change is advantageous (i.e., NFI with adaptation is superior to NFI without adaptation based on SERF), in six of the nine cases in which adaptation is advantageous, NFI with adaptation in the future climate period is inferior to NFI in the historical climate period. Therefore, adaptation of APSs to future climate change in Flathead Valley is insufficient to offset the adverse impacts on NFI of such change.

Potential economic benefits of adapting agricultural production systems to future climate change.

PubMed

Prato, Tony; Zeyuan, Qiu; Pederson, Gregory; Fagre, Dan; Bengtson, Lindsey E; Williams, Jimmy R

2010-03-01

Potential economic impacts of future climate change on crop enterprise net returns and annual net farm income (NFI) are evaluated for small and large representative farms in Flathead Valley in Northwest Montana. Crop enterprise net returns and NFI in an historical climate period (1960-2005) and future climate period (2006-2050) are compared when agricultural production systems (APSs) are adapted to future climate change. Climate conditions in the future climate period are based on the A1B, B1, and A2 CO(2) emission scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report. Steps in the evaluation include: (1) specifying crop enterprises and APSs (i.e., combinations of crop enterprises) in consultation with locals producers; (2) simulating crop yields for two soils, crop prices, crop enterprises costs, and NFIs for APSs; (3) determining the dominant APS in the historical and future climate periods in terms of NFI; and (4) determining whether NFI for the dominant APS in the historical climate period is superior to NFI for the dominant APS in the future climate period. Crop yields are simulated using the Environmental/Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model and dominance comparisons for NFI are based on the stochastic efficiency with respect to a function (SERF) criterion. Probability distributions that best fit the EPIC-simulated crop yields are used to simulate 100 values for crop yields for the two soils in the historical and future climate periods. Best-fitting probability distributions for historical inflation-adjusted crop prices and specified triangular probability distributions for crop enterprise costs are used to simulate 100 values for crop prices and crop enterprise costs. Averaged over all crop enterprises, farm sizes, and soil types, simulated net return per ha averaged over all crop enterprises decreased 24% and simulated mean NFI for APSs decreased 57% between the historical and future climate periods. Although adapting APSs to future climate change is advantageous (i.e., NFI with adaptation is superior to NFI without adaptation based on SERF), in six of the nine cases in which adaptation is advantageous, NFI with adaptation in the future climate period is inferior to NFI in the historical climate period. Therefore, adaptation of APSs to future climate change in Flathead Valley is insufficient to offset the adverse impacts on NFI of such change.

Irrigation efficiency and water-policy implications for river-basin resilience

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scott, C. A.; Vicuña, S.; Blanco-Gutiérrez, I.; Meza, F.; Varela-Ortega, C.

2013-07-01

Rising demand for food, fiber, and biofuels drives expanding irrigation withdrawals from surface- and groundwater. Irrigation efficiency and water savings have become watchwords in response to climate-induced hydrological variability, increasing freshwater demand for other uses including ecosystem water needs, and low economic productivity of irrigation compared to most other uses. We identify three classes of unintended consequences, presented here as paradoxes. Ever-tighter cycling of water has been shown to increase resource use, an example of the efficiency paradox. In the absence of effective policy to constrain irrigated-area expansion using "saved water", efficiency can aggravate scarcity, deteriorate resource quality, and impair river-basin resilience through loss of flexibility and redundancy. Water scarcity and salinity effects in the lower reaches of basins (symptomatic of the scale paradox) may partly be offset over the short-term through groundwater pumping or increasing surface water storage capacity. However, declining ecological flows and increasing salinity have important implications for riparian and estuarine ecosystems and for non-irrigation human uses of water including urban supply and energy generation, examples of the sectoral paradox. This paper briefly examines policy frameworks in three regional contexts with broadly similar climatic and water-resource conditions - central Chile, southwestern US, and south-central Spain - where irrigation efficiency directly influences basin resilience. The comparison leads to more generic insights on water policy in relation to irrigation efficiency and emerging or overdue needs for environmental protection.

Irrigation efficiency and water-policy implications for river basin resilience

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scott, C. A.; Vicuña, S.; Blanco-Gutiérrez, I.; Meza, F.; Varela-Ortega, C.

2014-04-01

Rising demand for food, fiber, and biofuels drives expanding irrigation withdrawals from surface water and groundwater. Irrigation efficiency and water savings have become watchwords in response to climate-induced hydrological variability, increasing freshwater demand for other uses including ecosystem water needs, and low economic productivity of irrigation compared to most other uses. We identify three classes of unintended consequences, presented here as paradoxes. Ever-tighter cycling of water has been shown to increase resource use, an example of the efficiency paradox. In the absence of effective policy to constrain irrigated-area expansion using "saved water", efficiency can aggravate scarcity, deteriorate resource quality, and impair river basin resilience through loss of flexibility and redundancy. Water scarcity and salinity effects in the lower reaches of basins (symptomatic of the scale paradox) may partly be offset over the short-term through groundwater pumping or increasing surface water storage capacity. However, declining ecological flows and increasing salinity have important implications for riparian and estuarine ecosystems and for non-irrigation human uses of water including urban supply and energy generation, examples of the sectoral paradox. This paper briefly considers three regional contexts with broadly similar climatic and water-resource conditions - central Chile, southwestern US, and south-central Spain - where irrigation efficiency directly influences basin resilience. The comparison leads to more generic insights on water policy in relation to irrigation efficiency and emerging or overdue needs for environmental protection.

Effect of Climate Change and Transaction Costs on Performance of a Groundwater Market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khan, H. F.; Brown, C.

2017-12-01

With surface water resources becoming increasingly stressed, groundwater extraction, much of it unmanaged, has increased globally. Incentive-based policies, such as the cap-and-trade system, have been shown to be useful in the context of groundwater management. Previous research has shown that optimal groundwater markets (i.e. incentives-based policy) outperforms water quotas (command and control policy) with regards to both economic and environmental outcomes. In this work, we investigate whether these advantages of a water market over water quotas hold when assumptions of perfect information are violated due to climate change and hydrogeologic heterogeneity. We also assess whether the benefits of a cap-and-trade system outweigh the costs of implementing it, and how changes in future climate affect the performance a cap-and trade system. We use a sub-basin of the Republican River Basin, overlying the Ogallala aquifer in the High Plains of the United States, as a case study. We develop a multi-agent system model where individual benefits of each self-interested agent are maximized subject to bounds on irrigation requirements and water use permits. This economic model is coupled with a calibrated physically based groundwater model for the study region. Results show that permitting farmers to trade results in increased economic benefits and reduced environmental violations. However, the benefits of trading are dependent on the total allocations and the resulting level of water demand. We quantify third party impacts and environmental externalities for different water allocations, and highlight the unequal distributional effects of uniform water allocations resulting in `winners' and `losers'. The study reveals that high transaction costs can reduce the efficiency of the cap-and-trade system even below that of water quotas. Future changes in climate are shown to significantly influence the dynamics of the water market, and emphasize the need to address climate sensitivity in the setup of water markets.

Managing carbon emissions in China through building energy efficiency.

PubMed

Li, Jun; Colombier, Michel

2009-06-01

This paper attempts to analyse the role of building energy efficiency (BEE) in China in addressing climate change mitigation. It provides an analysis of the current situation and future prospects for the adoption of BEE technologies in Chinese cities. It outlines the economic and institutional barriers to large-scale deployment of the sustainable, low-carbon, and even carbon-free construction techniques. Based on a comprehensive overview of energy demand characteristics and development trends driven by economic and demographic growth, different policy tools for cost-effective CO(2) emission reduction in the Chinese construction sector are described. We propose a comprehensive approach combining building design and construction, and the urban planning and building material industries, in order to drastically improve BEE during this period of rapid urban development. A coherent institutional framework needs to be established to ensure the implementation of efficiency policies. Regulatory and incentive options should be integrated into the policy portfolios of BEE to minimise the efficiency gap and to realise sizeable carbon emissions cuts in the next decades. We analyse in detail several policies and instruments, and formulate relevant policy proposals fostering low-carbon construction technology in China. Specifically, Our analysis shows that improving building energy efficiency can generate considerable carbon emissions reduction credits with competitive price under the CDM framework.

Approaches to local climate action in Colorado

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Y. D.

2011-12-01

Though climate change is a global problem, the impacts are felt on the local scale; it follows that the solutions must come at the local level. Fortunately, many cities and municipalities are implementing climate mitigation (or climate action) policies and programs. However, they face many procedural and institutional barriers to their efforts, such of lack of expertise or data, limited human and financial resources, and lack of community engagement (Krause 2011). To address the first obstacle, thirteen in-depth case studies were done of successful model practices ("best practices") of climate action programs carried out by various cities, counties, and organizations in Colorado, and one outside Colorado, and developed into "how-to guides" for other municipalities to use. Research was conducted by reading documents (e.g. annual reports, community guides, city websites), email correspondence with program managers and city officials, and via phone interviews. The information gathered was then compiled into a series of reports containing a narrative description of the initiative; an overview of the plan elements (target audience and goals); implementation strategies and any indicators of success to date (e.g. GHG emissions reductions, cost savings); and the adoption or approval process, as well as community engagement efforts and marketing or messaging strategies. The types of programs covered were energy action plans, energy efficiency programs, renewable energy programs, and transportation and land use programs. Between the thirteen case studies, there was a range of approaches to implementing local climate action programs, examined along two dimensions: focus on climate change (whether it was direct/explicit or indirect/implicit) and extent of government authority. This benchmarking exercise affirmed the conventional wisdom propounded by Pitt (2010), that peer pressure (that is, the presence of neighboring jurisdictions with climate initiatives), the level of community engagement and enthusiasm, and most importantly staff members dedicated to the area of climate planning have a significant effect on climate mitigation policy adoption. In addition, it supported the claim asserted by Toly (2008) that an emphasis on economic co-benefits perpetuates the principle that economic growth need not be compromised when addressing climate change and weakens our capacity to shift toward a bolder paradigm in what is politically achievable in climate legislation.

Energy Efficiency standards and labels provide a solid foundationfor economic growth, climate change mitigation, and regional trade

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wiel, Stephen; Egan, Christine; della Cava, Mirka

2006-09-01

Governments around the world have increasingly beenimplementing energy efficiency standards and labeling programs for thepast 30 years. There has been an especially rapid growth in the numberand extent of these programs over the past 15 years. By the end of 2005,62 countries had adopted 1818 separate standards or labels covering 82products. The impact has been dramatic. This paper describes: (1) thebenefits that can be obtained through this policy, (2) which countriesare implementing standards and labels and for which products, (3) theimpacts such programs have been having in some countries, and (4) recentprogress through regional cooperation and alignment.

The Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S): Open Access to a Climate Data Store

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thepaut, Jean-Noel; Dee, Dick

2016-04-01

In November 2014, The European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) signed an agreement with the European Commission to deliver two of the Copernicus Earth Observation Programme Services on the Commission's behalf. The ECMWF delivered services - the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) and Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) - will bring a consistent standard to how we monitor and predict atmospheric conditions and climate change. They will maximise the potential of past, current and future earth observations - ground, ocean, airborne, satellite - and analyse these to monitor and predict atmospheric conditions and in the future, climate change. With the wealth of free and open data that the services provide, they will help business users to assess the impact of their business decisions and make informed choices, delivering a more energy efficient and climate aware economy. These sound investment decisions now will not only stimulate growth in the short term, but reduce the impact of climate change on the economy and society in the future. C3S is in its proof of concept phase and through its Climate Data Store will provide • global and regional climate data reanalyses; • multi-model seasonal forecasts; • customisable visual data to enable examination of wide range of scenarios and model the impact of changes; • access to all the underlying data, including climate data records from various satellite and in-situ observations. In addition, C3S will provide key indicators on climate change drivers (such as carbon dioxide) and impacts (such as reducing glaciers). The aim of these indicators will be to support European adaptation and mitigation policies in a number of economic sectors. At the heart of the Service is the provision of open access to a one stop shop (the Climate Data Store) of climate data and modelling, analysing more than 20 Essential Climate Variables to build a global picture of our past, present and future climate and developing customisable climate indicators for key economic sectors, such as energy, water management, agriculture, insurance, health… This talk will focus on the Climate Data Store facility, designed as a distributed system, providing improved access to existing datasets though a unified web interface. This service will accommodate the needs of the highly diverse set of users, from policy makers to expert practitioners and scientists.

Climate Change Effects on Agriculture: Economic Responses to Biophysical Shocks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nelson, Gerald C.; Valin, Hugo; Sands, Ronald D.; Havlik, Petr; Ahammad, Helal; Deryng, Delphine; Elliott, Joshua; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Heyhoe, Edwina

2014-01-01

Agricultural production is sensitive to weather and thus directly affected by climate change. Plausible estimates of these climate change impacts require combined use of climate, crop, and economic models. Results from previous studies vary substantially due to differences in models, scenarios, and data. This paper is part of a collective effort to systematically integrate these three types of models. We focus on the economic component of the assessment, investigating how nine global economic models of agriculture represent endogenous responses to seven standardized climate change scenarios produced by two climate and five crop models. These responses include adjustments in yields, area, consumption, and international trade. We apply biophysical shocks derived from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's representative concentration pathway with end-of-century radiative forcing of 8.5 W/m(sup 2). The mean biophysical yield effect with no incremental CO2 fertilization is a 17% reduction globally by 2050 relative to a scenario with unchanging climate. Endogenous economic responses reduce yield loss to 11%, increase area of major crops by 11%, and reduce consumption by 3%. Agricultural production, cropland area, trade, and prices show the greatest degree of variability in response to climate change, and consumption the lowest. The sources of these differences include model structure and specification; in particular, model assumptions about ease of land use conversion, intensification, and trade. This study identifies where models disagree on the relative responses to climate shocks and highlights research activities needed to improve the representation of agricultural adaptation responses to climate change.

Climate change effects on agriculture: Economic responses to biophysical shocks

PubMed Central

Nelson, Gerald C.; Valin, Hugo; Sands, Ronald D.; Havlík, Petr; Ahammad, Helal; Deryng, Delphine; Elliott, Joshua; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Heyhoe, Edwina; Kyle, Page; Von Lampe, Martin; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Mason d’Croz, Daniel; van Meijl, Hans; van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique; Müller, Christoph; Popp, Alexander; Robertson, Richard; Robinson, Sherman; Schmid, Erwin; Schmitz, Christoph; Tabeau, Andrzej; Willenbockel, Dirk

2014-01-01

Agricultural production is sensitive to weather and thus directly affected by climate change. Plausible estimates of these climate change impacts require combined use of climate, crop, and economic models. Results from previous studies vary substantially due to differences in models, scenarios, and data. This paper is part of a collective effort to systematically integrate these three types of models. We focus on the economic component of the assessment, investigating how nine global economic models of agriculture represent endogenous responses to seven standardized climate change scenarios produced by two climate and five crop models. These responses include adjustments in yields, area, consumption, and international trade. We apply biophysical shocks derived from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s representative concentration pathway with end-of-century radiative forcing of 8.5 W/m2. The mean biophysical yield effect with no incremental CO2 fertilization is a 17% reduction globally by 2050 relative to a scenario with unchanging climate. Endogenous economic responses reduce yield loss to 11%, increase area of major crops by 11%, and reduce consumption by 3%. Agricultural production, cropland area, trade, and prices show the greatest degree of variability in response to climate change, and consumption the lowest. The sources of these differences include model structure and specification; in particular, model assumptions about ease of land use conversion, intensification, and trade. This study identifies where models disagree on the relative responses to climate shocks and highlights research activities needed to improve the representation of agricultural adaptation responses to climate change. PMID:24344285

Climate change effects on agriculture: economic responses to biophysical shocks.

PubMed

Nelson, Gerald C; Valin, Hugo; Sands, Ronald D; Havlík, Petr; Ahammad, Helal; Deryng, Delphine; Elliott, Joshua; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Heyhoe, Edwina; Kyle, Page; Von Lampe, Martin; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Mason d'Croz, Daniel; van Meijl, Hans; van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique; Müller, Christoph; Popp, Alexander; Robertson, Richard; Robinson, Sherman; Schmid, Erwin; Schmitz, Christoph; Tabeau, Andrzej; Willenbockel, Dirk

2014-03-04

Agricultural production is sensitive to weather and thus directly affected by climate change. Plausible estimates of these climate change impacts require combined use of climate, crop, and economic models. Results from previous studies vary substantially due to differences in models, scenarios, and data. This paper is part of a collective effort to systematically integrate these three types of models. We focus on the economic component of the assessment, investigating how nine global economic models of agriculture represent endogenous responses to seven standardized climate change scenarios produced by two climate and five crop models. These responses include adjustments in yields, area, consumption, and international trade. We apply biophysical shocks derived from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's representative concentration pathway with end-of-century radiative forcing of 8.5 W/m(2). The mean biophysical yield effect with no incremental CO2 fertilization is a 17% reduction globally by 2050 relative to a scenario with unchanging climate. Endogenous economic responses reduce yield loss to 11%, increase area of major crops by 11%, and reduce consumption by 3%. Agricultural production, cropland area, trade, and prices show the greatest degree of variability in response to climate change, and consumption the lowest. The sources of these differences include model structure and specification; in particular, model assumptions about ease of land use conversion, intensification, and trade. This study identifies where models disagree on the relative responses to climate shocks and highlights research activities needed to improve the representation of agricultural adaptation responses to climate change.

Simulation of Land-Cover Change in Taipei Metropolitan Area under Climate Change Impact

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Kuo-Ching; Huang, Thomas C. C.

2014-02-01

Climate change causes environment change and shows up on land covers. Through observing the change of land use, researchers can find out the trend and potential mechanism of the land cover change. Effective adaptation policies can affect pattern of land cover change and may decrease the risks of climate change impacts. By simulating land use dynamics with scenario settings, this paper attempts to explore the relationship between climate change and land-cover change through efficient adaptation polices. It involves spatial statistical model in estimating possibility of land-cover change, cellular automata model in modeling land-cover dynamics, and scenario analysis in response to adaptation polices. The results show that, without any control, the critical eco-areas, such as estuarine areas, will be destroyed and people may move to the vulnerable and important economic development areas. In the other hand, under the limited development condition for adaptation, people migration to peri-urban and critical eco-areas may be deterred.

Practices for Alleviating Heat Stress of Dairy Cows in Humid Continental Climates: A Literature Review.

PubMed

Fournel, Sébastien; Ouellet, Véronique; Charbonneau, Édith

2017-05-02

Heat stress negatively affects the health and performance of dairy cows, resulting in considerable economic losses for the industry. In future years, climate change will exacerbate these losses by making the climate warmer. Physical modification of the environment is considered to be the primary means of reducing adverse effects of hot weather conditions. At present, to reduce stressful heat exposure and to cool cows, dairy farms rely on shade screens and various forms of forced convection and evaporative cooling that may include fans and misters, feed-line sprinklers, and tunnel- or cross-ventilated buildings. However, these systems have been mainly tested in subtropical areas and thus their efficiency in humid continental climates, such as in the province of Québec, Canada, is unclear. Therefore, this study reviewed the available cooling applications and assessed their potential for northern regions. Thermal stress indices such as the temperature-humidity index (THI) were used to evaluate the different cooling strategies.

Optimal climate change: economics and climate science policy histories (from heuristic to normative).

PubMed

Randalls, Samuel

2011-01-01

Historical accounts of climate change science and policy have reflected rather infrequently upon the debates, discussions, and policy advice proffered by economists in the 1980s. While there are many forms of economic analysis, this article focuses upon cost-benefit analysis, especially as adopted in the work of William Nordhaus. The article addresses the way in which climate change economics subtly altered debates about climate policy from the late 1970s through the 1990s. These debates are often technical and complex, but the argument in this article is that the development of a philosophy of climate change as an issue for cost-benefit analysis has had consequences for how climate policy is made today.

Why Interfaces are the Key for Developing Climate Services

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cortekar, Jörg; Bender, Steffen; Groth, Markus

2015-04-01

Responding to climate change today involves both mitigation to address the cause and adaptation as a response to already on-going and expected changes. But to what exactly do we have to adapt? And what happens, when environmental, economical or administrative boundary conditions changes? In recent years the concept of climate services has evolved to provide user tailored information to meet individual adaptation needs. According to the Global Framework for Climate Services, climate services involve high-quality data e.g. on temperature, rainfall, wind, etc., as well as maps, risk and vulnerability analyses, assessments, and long-term projections and scenarios. Depending on specific user's needs, these data and information products may be combined with non-meteorological sector-specific data, such as agricultural production, flood risk maps or health trends, and other socio-economic variables to support decision-making of stakeholders who are affected by climate change. This, still non-exhaustive list already indicates that many different scientific disciplines are involved in the development and provision of climate services. Integrating different and equally important scientific approaches to contribute to the solution of one specific problem is challenging. In economics, for instance, many different and promising methods and tools such as cost-benefit-analyses are available which play a key role in providing policy makers and other stakeholders with data and information in order to create a robust decision-making basis for efficiently using scarce budgets. Cost-benefit-analysis is a well-established method in economic theory, its application in the field of climate change adaptation, however, is still new. The bulk of cost and benefit assessments currently pursues a top-down-approach. That is, the required data is generated by downscaling cost and benefit estimations of global impact assessment models to a specific region. In many cases global information are not fully capable to solve regional adaptation problems, since it does not account for the heterogeneous and highly context-dependent character of local conditions. Conducting a sound cost-benefit-analysis with respect to adaptation measures requires input from numerous disciplines. While cost estimations are mostly easily manageable, calculating benefits usually requires further input on different time and spatial scales. Depending on the object of interest this could be, for example, climatological, hydrological and environmental information. Of course, this is not specifically an economic issue. Practical examples such as for local water supply or from planning adaptation measures in urban areas clearly indicate that overcoming disciplinary borders is always challenging. Even though the integration of different scientific disciplines is progressing, there is still no how-to guideline and it can be doubted there will be one some day. Lessons learnt show that upcoming questions must be solved on a case-to-case basis. This means the interfaces between disciplines must be identified and designed with respect to the existing context and participating stakeholders, which requires much effort, a local multiplier and the willingness of all participating partners to find adequate solutions.

Practices for Alleviating Heat Stress of Dairy Cows in Humid Continental Climates: A Literature Review

PubMed Central

Fournel, Sébastien; Ouellet, Véronique; Charbonneau, Édith

2017-01-01

Simple Summary The severity of heat stress issues on dairy cows will increase as global warming progresses. Fortunately, major advances in environmental management, including fans, misters, sprinklers, and cooled waterbeds, can attenuate the effects of thermal stress on cow health, production, and reproduction. These cooling systems were, however, tested in subtropical areas and their efficiency in northern regions is uncertain. This article assesses the potential of existing technologies to cool cows in humid continental climates through calculation of heat stress indices. Abstract Heat stress negatively affects the health and performance of dairy cows, resulting in considerable economic losses for the industry. In future years, climate change will exacerbate these losses by making the climate warmer. Physical modification of the environment is considered to be the primary means of reducing adverse effects of hot weather conditions. At present, to reduce stressful heat exposure and to cool cows, dairy farms rely on shade screens and various forms of forced convection and evaporative cooling that may include fans and misters, feed-line sprinklers, and tunnel- or cross-ventilated buildings. However, these systems have been mainly tested in subtropical areas and thus their efficiency in humid continental climates, such as in the province of Québec, Canada, is unclear. Therefore, this study reviewed the available cooling applications and assessed their potential for northern regions. Thermal stress indices such as the temperature-humidity index (THI) were used to evaluate the different cooling strategies. PMID:28468329

The impacts of climate change on poverty in 2030, and the potential from rapid, inclusive and climate-informed development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rozenberg, J.; Hallegatte, S.

2016-12-01

There is a consensus on the fact that poor people are more vulnerable to climate change than the rest of the population, but, until recently, few quantified estimates had been proposed and few frameworks existed to design policies for addressing the issue. In this paper, we analyze the impacts of climate change on poverty using micro-simulation approaches. We start from household surveys that describe the current distribution of income and occupations, we project these households into the future and we look at the impacts of climate change on people's income. To project households into the future, we explore a large range of assumptions on future demographic changes (including on education), technological changes, and socio-economic trends (including redistribution policies). This approach allows us to identify the main combination of factors that lead to fast poverty reduction, and the ones that lead to high climate change impacts on the poor. Identifying these factors is critical for designing efficient policies to protect the poorest from climate change impacts and making economic growth more inclusive. Conclusions are twofold. First, by 2030 climate change can have a large impact on poverty, with between 3 and 122 million more people in poverty, but climate change remains a secondary driver of poverty trends within this time horizon. Climate change impacts do not only affect the poorest: in 2030, the bottom 40 percent lose more than 4 percent of income in many countries. The regional hotspots are Sub-Saharan Africa and - to a lesser extent - India and the rest of South Asia. The most important channel through which climate change increases poverty is through agricultural income and food prices. Second, by 2030 and in the absence of surprises on climate impacts, inclusive climate-informed development can prevent most of (but not all) the impacts on poverty. In a scenario with rapid, inclusive and climate-proof development, climate change impact on poverty is between 3 and 16 million, vs. between 35 and 122 million if development is delayed and less inclusive. Development and inclusive policies appears to reduce the impact of climate change on poverty much more than it reduces aggregated losses expressed in percentage of GDP.

Improving early cycle economic evaluation of diagnostic technologies.

PubMed

Steuten, Lotte M G; Ramsey, Scott D

2014-08-01

The rapidly increasing range and expense of new diagnostics, compels consideration of a different, more proactive approach to health economic evaluation of diagnostic technologies. Early cycle economic evaluation is a decision analytic approach to evaluate technologies in development so as to increase the return on investment as well as patient and societal impact. This paper describes examples of 'early cycle economic evaluations' as applied to diagnostic technologies and highlights challenges in its real-time application. It shows that especially in the field of diagnostics, with rapid technological developments and a changing regulatory climate, early cycle economic evaluation can have a guiding role to improve the efficiency of the diagnostics innovation process. In the next five years the attention will move beyond the methodological and analytic challenges of early cycle economic evaluation towards the challenge of effectively applying it to improve diagnostic research and development and patient value. Future work in this area should therefore be 'strong on principles and soft on metrics', that is, the metrics that resonate most clearly with the various decision makers in this field.

Comparison of physically- and economically-based CO2-equivalences for methane

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boucher, O.

2012-01-01

There is a controversy on the role methane (and other short-lived species) should play in climate mitigation policies and no consensus on what an optimal methane CO2-equivalence should be. We revisit this question by discussing the relative merits of physically-based (i.e. Global Warming Potential or GWP and Global Temperature change Potential or GTP) and socio-economically-based climate metrics. To this effect we use a simplified Global Damage Potential (GDP) that was introduced by earlier authors and investigate the uncertainties in the methane CO2-equivalence that arise from physical and socio-economic factors. The median value of the methane GDP comes out very close to the widely used methane 100-year GWP because of various compensating effects. However there is a large spread in possible methane CO2-equivalences (1-99% interval: 10.0-42.5; 5-95% interval: 12.5-38.0) that is essentially due to the choice in some socio-economic parameters (i.e. the damage cost function and the discount rate). The methane 100-year GTP falls outside these ranges. It is legitimate to increase the methane CO2-equivalence in the future as global warming unfolds. While changes in biogeochemical cycles and radiative efficiencies cause some small changes to physically-based metrics, a systematic increase in the methane CO2-equivalence can only be achieved by some ad-hoc shortening of the time horizon. In contrast using a convex damage cost function provides a natural increase in the methane CO2-equivalence for the socio-economically-based metrics. We also show that a methane CO2-equivalence based on a pulse emission is sufficient to inform multi-year climate policies and emissions reductions as long as there is some degree of visibility on CO2 prices and CO2-equivalences.

Contributions to accelerating atmospheric CO2 growth from economic activity, carbon intensity, and efficiency of natural sinks

PubMed Central

Canadell, Josep G.; Le Quéré, Corinne; Raupach, Michael R.; Field, Christopher B.; Buitenhuis, Erik T.; Ciais, Philippe; Conway, Thomas J.; Gillett, Nathan P.; Houghton, R. A.; Marland, Gregg

2007-01-01

The growth rate of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), the largest human contributor to human-induced climate change, is increasing rapidly. Three processes contribute to this rapid increase. Two of these processes concern emissions. Recent growth of the world economy combined with an increase in its carbon intensity have led to rapid growth in fossil fuel CO2 emissions since 2000: comparing the 1990s with 2000–2006, the emissions growth rate increased from 1.3% to 3.3% y−1. The third process is indicated by increasing evidence (P = 0.89) for a long-term (50-year) increase in the airborne fraction (AF) of CO2 emissions, implying a decline in the efficiency of CO2 sinks on land and oceans in absorbing anthropogenic emissions. Since 2000, the contributions of these three factors to the increase in the atmospheric CO2 growth rate have been ≈65 ± 16% from increasing global economic activity, 17 ± 6% from the increasing carbon intensity of the global economy, and 18 ± 15% from the increase in AF. An increasing AF is consistent with results of climate–carbon cycle models, but the magnitude of the observed signal appears larger than that estimated by models. All of these changes characterize a carbon cycle that is generating stronger-than-expected and sooner-than-expected climate forcing. PMID:17962418

Climate Change and Macro-Economic Cycles in Pre-Industrial Europe

PubMed Central

Pei, Qing; Zhang, David D.; Lee, Harry F.; Li, Guodong

2014-01-01

Climate change has been proven to be the ultimate cause of social crisis in pre-industrial Europe at a large scale. However, detailed analyses on climate change and macro-economic cycles in the pre-industrial era remain lacking, especially within different temporal scales. Therefore, fine-grained, paleo-climate, and economic data were employed with statistical methods to quantitatively assess the relations between climate change and agrarian economy in Europe during AD 1500 to 1800. In the study, the Butterworth filter was adopted to filter the data series into a long-term trend (low-frequency) and short-term fluctuations (high-frequency). Granger Causality Analysis was conducted to scrutinize the associations between climate change and macro-economic cycle at different frequency bands. Based on quantitative results, climate change can only show significant effects on the macro-economic cycle within the long-term. In terms of the short-term effects, society can relieve the influences from climate variations by social adaptation methods and self-adjustment mechanism. On a large spatial scale, temperature holds higher importance for the European agrarian economy than precipitation. By examining the supply-demand mechanism in the grain market, population during the study period acted as the producer in the long term, whereas as the consumer in the short term. These findings merely reflect the general interactions between climate change and macro-economic cycles at the large spatial region with a long-term study period. The findings neither illustrate individual incidents that can temporarily distort the agrarian economy nor explain some specific cases. In the study, the scale thinking in the analysis is raised as an essential methodological issue for the first time to interpret the associations between climatic impact and macro-economy in the past agrarian society within different temporal scales. PMID:24516601

Climate change and macro-economic cycles in pre-industrial europe.

PubMed

Pei, Qing; Zhang, David D; Lee, Harry F; Li, Guodong

2014-01-01

Climate change has been proven to be the ultimate cause of social crisis in pre-industrial Europe at a large scale. However, detailed analyses on climate change and macro-economic cycles in the pre-industrial era remain lacking, especially within different temporal scales. Therefore, fine-grained, paleo-climate, and economic data were employed with statistical methods to quantitatively assess the relations between climate change and agrarian economy in Europe during AD 1500 to 1800. In the study, the Butterworth filter was adopted to filter the data series into a long-term trend (low-frequency) and short-term fluctuations (high-frequency). Granger Causality Analysis was conducted to scrutinize the associations between climate change and macro-economic cycle at different frequency bands. Based on quantitative results, climate change can only show significant effects on the macro-economic cycle within the long-term. In terms of the short-term effects, society can relieve the influences from climate variations by social adaptation methods and self-adjustment mechanism. On a large spatial scale, temperature holds higher importance for the European agrarian economy than precipitation. By examining the supply-demand mechanism in the grain market, population during the study period acted as the producer in the long term, whereas as the consumer in the short term. These findings merely reflect the general interactions between climate change and macro-economic cycles at the large spatial region with a long-term study period. The findings neither illustrate individual incidents that can temporarily distort the agrarian economy nor explain some specific cases. In the study, the scale thinking in the analysis is raised as an essential methodological issue for the first time to interpret the associations between climatic impact and macro-economy in the past agrarian society within different temporal scales.

Social and economic impacts of climate.

PubMed

Carleton, Tamma A; Hsiang, Solomon M

2016-09-09

For centuries, thinkers have considered whether and how climatic conditions-such as temperature, rainfall, and violent storms-influence the nature of societies and the performance of economies. A multidisciplinary renaissance of quantitative empirical research is illuminating important linkages in the coupled climate-human system. We highlight key methodological innovations and results describing effects of climate on health, economics, conflict, migration, and demographics. Because of persistent "adaptation gaps," current climate conditions continue to play a substantial role in shaping modern society, and future climate changes will likely have additional impact. For example, we compute that temperature depresses current U.S. maize yields by ~48%, warming since 1980 elevated conflict risk in Africa by ~11%, and future warming may slow global economic growth rates by ~0.28 percentage points per year. In general, we estimate that the economic and social burden of current climates tends to be comparable in magnitude to the additional projected impact caused by future anthropogenic climate changes. Overall, findings from this literature point to climate as an important influence on the historical evolution of the global economy, they should inform how we respond to modern climatic conditions, and they can guide how we predict the consequences of future climate changes. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Analysis of selected photovoltaic systems and storage options for residential applications in hot, humid climates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lau, A. S.; Hill, J. M.; Ball, D. E.

1982-08-01

The relationship is studied between photovoltaic (PV) generated power and its on-site use as a function of total array size for an energy-efficient house in the hot, humid climates of Miami and Houston. Options in addition to be the full-roof system using a direct current (dc) to alternating current (ac) inverter are studied in an effort to identify applications which are less expensive and which rely less on utility sellback. The results show that common residential loads in this climate lead to high on-site utilization. For the various PV applications studied, array sizes are identified which can be fully potential is identified both in the house structure and the domestic water heater. Using projected 1986 costs, the economics of selected systems were studied for Miami. Only one of the system sizes was found to be marginally competitive with utility supplied power.

How much will be economic impact of climate change on water resources? A Meta-Analytic Review of previous literature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoshikawa, S.; Iseri, Y.; Kanae, S.

2016-12-01

Water resources is vital in social and economic activities. Total global water use is increasing, mainly due to economic and population growth in developing countries. It has one of risk with high agreement and robust evidence that freshwater-related risks of climate change increase significantly with increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. It is difficult to compare the risk with other field risk (e.g. agriculture, forestry, sea level rise) for considering both adaptation and mitigation policy with the level of decision makers and public servants. Economic impacts of climate change on water scarcity has been estimated by economic researchers. We have no certainty at all about integration between hydrological and economical fields on global scale. In this study, we highlight key concerns about conventional estimations of economic impact on water resources through meta-analysis. The economic impact on water resource in same base year using consumer price index is shown with increase in the global mean temperature. We clarified four concerns which are involved in 1) classification of economic mechanism, 2) estimated items of economic impact, 3) difference in estimating equations, and 4) definition of parameters related with economic impact of climate change. This study would be essential to next challenge as transdisciplinary research between hydrologic and economic fields.

Sun/Earth: how to use solar and climatic energies today

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Crowther, R.L.

1976-01-01

This book graphically presents many concepts that are cost-effective today for the utilization of free natural energy sources in homes and other buildings. All of the natural energy concepts presented are in a process of continuing development. Many of them are immediately economic and practical, while some are not. It takes the application of money to construct devices to harness natural energy or to construct energy efficient forms of architecture. In numerous cases operational energy is not required to employ the Sun, wind, water, and Earth as free anti-inflationary energy sources. In other cases a very small input of operationalmore » energy in comparison to the total energy output is required. All land and buildings are solar collectors. The problem is how to cost effectively make them efficient collectors of solar radiation in winter and how to use natural forms of energy to cool and ventilate them during summer and other seasons of the year. Regional and microclimatic conditions vary throughout the world. Topography and landscaping can play an important role in climatic control and climatic effect upon architecture. The examples presented for optimized energy conservation and solar active and passive systems are generic to most northern latitudes, but need modification or adaption to specific locations and climates. An annotated bibliography, containing additional reference, is included.« less

Complementing carbon prices with technology policies to keep climate targets within reach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bertram, Christoph; Luderer, Gunnar; Pietzcker, Robert C.; Schmid, Eva; Kriegler, Elmar; Edenhofer, Ottmar

2015-03-01

Economic theory suggests that comprehensive carbon pricing is most efficient to reach ambitious climate targets, and previous studies indicated that the carbon price required for limiting global mean warming to 2 °C is between US$16 and US$73 per tonne of CO2 in 2015 (ref. ). Yet, a global implementation of such high carbon prices is unlikely to be politically feasible in the short term. Instead, most climate policies enacted so far are technology policies or fragmented and moderate carbon pricing schemes. This paper shows that ambitious climate targets can be kept within reach until 2030 despite a sub-optimal policy mix. With a state-of-the-art energy-economy model we quantify the interactions and unique effects of three major policy components: (1) a carbon price starting at US$7 per tonne of CO2 in 2015 to incentivize economy-wide mitigation, flanked by (2) support for low-carbon energy technologies to pave the way for future decarbonization, and (3) a moratorium on new coal-fired power plants to limit stranded assets. We find that such a mix limits the efficiency losses compared with the optimal policy, and at the same time lowers distributional impacts. Therefore, we argue that this instrument mix might be a politically more feasible alternative to the optimal policy based on a comprehensive carbon price alone.

Economic costs of extratropical storms under climate change: An application of FUND

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Narita, D.; Tol, R.; Anthoff, D.

2009-12-01

Extratropical cyclones have attracted some attention in climate policy circles as a possible significant damage factor of climate change. This study conducts an assessment of economic impacts of increased storm activities under climate change with the integrated assessment model FUND 3.5. FUND is a model that calculates damages of climate change for 16 regions by making use of exogenous scenarios of socioeconomic variables (for details of our estimation approach, see our working paper whose URL is indicated below). Our estimation shows that in the base case, the direct economic damage of enhanced storms due to climate change amounts to $2.8 billion globally (approximately 38% of the total economic loss of storms at present) at the year 2100, while the ratio to the world GDP is 0.0009%. The regional results (Figure 1) indicate that the economic effect of extratropical storms with climate change would have relatively minor importance for the US (USA): The enhanced extratropical storm damage (less than 0.001% of GDP for the base case) is one order of magnitude lower than the tropical cyclone damage (roughly 0.01% GDP) calculated by the same version of FUND. In the regions without strong tropical cyclone influence, such as Western Europe (WEU) and Australia and New Zealand (ANZ), the extratropical storms might have some more significance as a possible damage factor of climate change. Especially for the latter, the direct economic damage could amount to more than 0.006% of GDP. Still, the impact is small relative to the income growth expected in these regions. Figure 1. Increased direct economic loss at the year 2100 for selected regions (results are shown for the three different baselines: the years 1986-2005, 1976-2005, and 1996-2005). US - USA; Canada - CAN; Western Europe - WEU; Australia and New Zealand - ANZ.

Economically Sustainable Scaling of Photovoltaics to Meet Climate Targets

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Needleman, David Berney; Poindexter, Jeremy R.; Kurchin, Rachel C.

To meet climate goals, photovoltaics (PV) deployment will have to grow rapidly over the next fifteen years. We identify two barriers to this growth: scale-up of manufacturing capacity and the cost of PV module production. We explore several technoeconomic approaches to overcoming these barriers and identify deep reductions in the capital intensity (capex) of PV module manufacturing and large increases in module efficiency as the most promising routes to rapid deployment. Given the lag inherent in rolling out new technology, we explore an approach where growth is fueled by debt or subsidies in the short-term and technological advances in themore » medium term. Finally, we analyze the current capex structure of crystalline silicon PV module manufacturing to identify potential savings.« less

Global climate change impacts on forests and markets

Treesearch

Xiaohui Tian; Brent Sohngen; John B Kim; Sara Ohrel; Jefferson Cole

2016-01-01

This paper develops an economic analysis of climate change impacts in the global forest sector. It illustrates how potential future climate change impacts can be integrated into a dynamic forestry economics model using data from a global dynamic vegetation model, theMC2model. The results suggest that climate change will cause forest outputs (such as timber) to increase...

Environmental costs and renewable energy: re-visiting the Environmental Kuznets Curve.

PubMed

López-Menéndez, Ana Jesús; Pérez, Rigoberto; Moreno, Blanca

2014-12-01

The environmental costs of economic development have received increasing attention during the last years. According to the World Energy Outlook (2013) sustainable energy policies should be promoted in order to spur economic growth and environmental protection in a global context, particularly in terms of reducing greenhouse gas emissions that contribute to climate change. Within this framework, the European Union aims to achieve the "20-20-20" targets, including a 20% reduction in EU greenhouse gas emissions from 1990 levels, a raise in the share of EU energy consumption produced from renewable resources to 20% and a 20% improvement in the EU's energy efficiency. Furthermore, the EU "Energy Roadmap 2050" has been recently adopted as a basis for developing a long-term European energy framework, fighting against climate change through the implementation of energy efficiency measures and the reduction of emissions. This paper focuses on the European context and attempts to explain the impact of economic growth on CO2 emissions through the estimation of an Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) using panel data. Moreover, since energy seems to be at the heart of the environmental problem it should also form the core of the solution, and therefore we provide some extensions of the EKC by including renewable energy sources as explanatory variables in the proposed models. Our data sets are referred to the 27 countries of the European Union during the period 1996-2010. With this information, our empirical results provide some interesting evidence about the significant impacts of renewable energies on CO2 emissions, suggesting the existence of an extended EKC. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Enhanced DEA model with undesirable output and interval data for rice growing farmers performance assessment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Khan, Sahubar Ali Mohd. Nadhar, E-mail: sahubar@uum.edu.my; Ramli, Razamin, E-mail: razamin@uum.edu.my; Baten, M. D. Azizul, E-mail: baten-math@yahoo.com

Agricultural production process typically produces two types of outputs which are economic desirable as well as environmentally undesirable outputs (such as greenhouse gas emission, nitrate leaching, effects to human and organisms and water pollution). In efficiency analysis, this undesirable outputs cannot be ignored and need to be included in order to obtain the actual estimation of firms efficiency. Additionally, climatic factors as well as data uncertainty can significantly affect the efficiency analysis. There are a number of approaches that has been proposed in DEA literature to account for undesirable outputs. Many researchers has pointed that directional distance function (DDF) approachmore » is the best as it allows for simultaneous increase in desirable outputs and reduction of undesirable outputs. Additionally, it has been found that interval data approach is the most suitable to account for data uncertainty as it is much simpler to model and need less information regarding its distribution and membership function. In this paper, an enhanced DEA model based on DDF approach that considers undesirable outputs as well as climatic factors and interval data is proposed. This model will be used to determine the efficiency of rice farmers who produces undesirable outputs and operates under uncertainty. It is hoped that the proposed model will provide a better estimate of rice farmers’ efficiency.« less

A simulation exercise to teach principles of bovine reproductive management.

PubMed

Perry, G A; Smith, M F

2004-05-01

Students in Reproductive Management (a senior-level course with approximately 20 to 50 students per semester) at the University of Missouri-Columbia are required to participate in a simulation exercise that is designed to improve reproductive efficiency in a beef herd. During a simulated 5-yr period, students must 1) improve reproductive efficiency in a beef cow-herd through implementation of reproductive management principles; 2) determine the economic impact of reproductive management decisions in a beef herd; and 3) evaluate the constraints of different geographical locations on approaches to reproductive management. Groups of three to four students are provided with the reproductive and economic records of a farm/ranch located in different parts of North America. Students create reproductive management plans consisting of 1) detailed discussion of farm/ranch environment (climate, terrain, forage and grain availability, and stocking rate; season for breeding and calving; and justification for choice of breed); 2) assessment of current level of reproductive performance; 3) identification and economic justification of specific (measurable) objectives; 4) discussion of alternatives for accomplishing specific objectives; 5) prediction of reproductive performance (pregnancy rate, quantity of calf weaned per cow exposed, and cost per quantity of calf weaned) in response to implementation of specific management practices; and 6) an annual and 5-yr reproductive and economic summary. Students obtain livestock marketing information for their assigned location via the Internet. Spreadsheets were developed to calculate the reproductive efficiency of postpartum cows and replacement heifers based on management decisions made by the groups and to calculate a yearly economic summary for each of the 5 yr. Management decisions are justified in a written report, and oral presentations are given to the class when the project is completed. Greater than 85% of students indicated that the exercise increased their understanding of how management decisions affect reproductive efficiency and profitability in a beef operation and also provided added confidence for students that applied for beef management positions.

Effects of global climate change on the US forest sector: response functions derived from a dynamic resource and market simulator.

Treesearch

Bruce A. McCarl; Darius M. Adams; Ralph J. Alig; Diana Burton; Chi-Chung. Chen

2000-01-01

A multiperiod, regional, mathematical programming economic model is used to evaluate the potential economic impacts of global climatic change on the US forest sector. A wide range of scenarios for the biological response of forests to climate change are developed, ranging from small to large changes in forest growth rates. These scenarios are simulated in the economic...

Using Weather Data and Climate Model Output in Economic Analyses of Climate Change

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Auffhammer, M.; Hsiang, S. M.; Schlenker, W.

2013-06-28

Economists are increasingly using weather data and climate model output in analyses of the economic impacts of climate change. This article introduces a set of weather data sets and climate models that are frequently used, discusses the most common mistakes economists make in using these products, and identifies ways to avoid these pitfalls. We first provide an introduction to weather data, including a summary of the types of datasets available, and then discuss five common pitfalls that empirical researchers should be aware of when using historical weather data as explanatory variables in econometric applications. We then provide a brief overviewmore » of climate models and discuss two common and significant errors often made by economists when climate model output is used to simulate the future impacts of climate change on an economic outcome of interest.« less

Changes in land-uses and ecosystem services under multi-scenarios simulation.

PubMed

Liu, Jingya; Li, Jing; Qin, Keyu; Zhou, Zixiang; Yang, Xiaonan; Li, Ting

2017-05-15

Social economy of China has been rapidly developing for more than 30years with efficient reforms and policies being issued. Societal developments have resulted in a greater use of many natural resources to the extent that the ecosystem can no longer self-regulate, thus severely damaging the balance of the ecosystem itself. This in turn has led to a deterioration in people's living environments. Our research is based on a combination of climate scenarios presented in the fifth report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and policy scenarios, including the one-child policy and carbon tax policy. We adopted Land Change Modeler of IDRISI software to simulate and analyze land-use change under 16 future scenarios in 2050. Carbon sequestration, soil conservation and water yields were quantified, based on those land-use maps and different ecosystem models. We also analyzed trade-offs and synergy among each ecosystem service and discussed why those interactions happened. The results show that: (1) Global climate change has a strong influence on future changes in land-use. (2) Carbon sequestration, water yield and soil conservation have a mutual relationship in the Guanzhong-Tianshui economic region. (3) Climate change and implementation of policy have a conspicuous impact on the changes in ecosystem services in the Guanzhong-Tianshui economic region. This paper can be used as a reference for further related research, and provide a reliable basis for achieving the sustainable development of the ecosystem. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Recent increases in terrestrial carbon uptake at little cost to the water cycle.

PubMed

Cheng, Lei; Zhang, Lu; Wang, Ying-Ping; Canadell, Josep G; Chiew, Francis H S; Beringer, Jason; Li, Longhui; Miralles, Diego G; Piao, Shilong; Zhang, Yongqiang

2017-07-24

Quantifying the responses of the coupled carbon and water cycles to current global warming and rising atmospheric CO 2 concentration is crucial for predicting and adapting to climate changes. Here we show that terrestrial carbon uptake (i.e. gross primary production) increased significantly from 1982 to 2011 using a combination of ground-based and remotely sensed land and atmospheric observations. Importantly, we find that the terrestrial carbon uptake increase is not accompanied by a proportional increase in water use (i.e. evapotranspiration) but is largely (about 90%) driven by increased carbon uptake per unit of water use, i.e. water use efficiency. The increased water use efficiency is positively related to rising CO 2 concentration and increased canopy leaf area index, and negatively influenced by increased vapour pressure deficits. Our findings suggest that rising atmospheric CO 2 concentration has caused a shift in terrestrial water economics of carbon uptake.The response of the coupled carbon and water cycles to anthropogenic climate change is unclear. Here, the authors show that terrestrial carbon uptake increased significantly from 1982 to 2011 and that this increase is largely driven by increased water-use efficiency, rather than an increase in water use.

Local perceptions of climate change validated by scientific evidence in the Himalayas.

PubMed

Chaudhary, Pashupati; Bawa, Kamaljit S

2011-10-23

The Himalayas are assumed to be undergoing rapid climate change, with serious environmental, social and economic consequences for more than two billion people. However, data on the extent of climate change or its impact on the region are meagre. Based on local knowledge, we report perceived changes in climate and consequences of such changes for biodiversity and agriculture. Our analyses are based on 250 household interviews administered in 18 villages, and focused group discussions conducted in 10 additional villages in Darjeeling Hills, West Bengal, India and Ilam district of Nepal. There is a widespread feeling that weather is getting warmer, the water sources are drying up, the onset of summer and monsoon has advanced during last 10 years and there is less snow on mountains than before. Local perceptions of the impact of climate change on biodiversity included early budburst and flowering, new agricultural pests and weeds and appearance of mosquitoes. People at high altitudes appear more sensitive to climate change than those at low altitudes. Most local perceptions conform to scientific data. Local knowledge can be rapidly and efficiently gathered using systematic tools. Such knowledge can allow scientists to test specific hypotheses, and policy makers to design mitigation and adaptation strategies for climate change, especially in an extraordinarily important part of our world that is experiencing considerable change.

Bethany Speer | NREL

Science.gov Websites

Strategic Energy Analysis Center. Areas of Expertise International economic policy Climate change mitigation Markets Climate change mitigation policies Education M.A. in global finance, trade and economic Keyser, Suzanne Tegen. 2016. Floating Offshore Wind in California: Gross Potential for Jobs and Economic

Climate change effects on agriculture: Economic responses to biophysical shocks

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nelson, Gerald; Valin, Hugo; Sands, Ronald

Agricultural production is sensitive to weather and will thus be directly affected by climate change. Plausible estimates of these climate change impacts require combined use of climate, crop, and economic models. Results from previous studies vary substantially due to differences in models, scenarios, and data. This paper is part of a collective effort to systematically integrate these three types of models. We focus on the economic component of the assessment, investigating how nine global economic models of agriculture represent endogenous responses to seven standardized climate change scenarios produced by two climate and five crop models. These responses include adjustments inmore » yields, area, consumption, and international trade. We apply biophysical shocks derived from the IPCC’s Representative Concentration Pathway that result in end-of-century radiative forcing of 8.5 watts per square meter. The mean biophysical impact on crop yield with no incremental CO2 fertilization is a 17 percent reduction globally by 2050 relative to a scenario with unchanging climate. Endogenous economic responses reduce yield loss to 11 percent, increase area of major crops by 12 percent, and reduce consumption by 2 percent. Agricultural production, cropland area, trade, and prices show the greatest degree of variability in response to climate change, and consumption the lowest. The sources of these differences includes model structure and specification; in particular, model assumptions about ease of land use conversion, intensification, and trade. This study identifies where models disagree on the relative responses to climate shocks and highlights research activities needed to improve the representation of agricultural adaptation responses to climate change.« less

Sustainable energy, economic growth and public health.

PubMed

Haines, A

2001-01-01

Dramatic economic growth over the last 50 years has been accompanied by widening inequalities world-wide in wealth and energy consumption, diminished life expectancy in some countries, and deteriorating indices of environmental sustainability including loss of bio-diversity. Raised output of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gases due to increased economic and industrial activity is causing progressive climate change, leading in turn to direct and indirect adverse effects on health. Emissions of greenhouse gases can be lowered by increased use of renewable energy sources, for example, wind power in the United Kingdom (UK), greater energy efficiency and other measures to promote sustainability. The experience of some developing countries shows that favourable indicators of health and development can accompany a low output of greenhouse gases. It is unclear whether contemporary political and social systems can deliver improved human development without increased use of fossil fuels and other resources.

Values in Time Discounting.

PubMed

Heilmann, Conrad

2017-10-01

Controversies about time discounting loom large in decisions about climate change. Prominently, a particularly controversial debate about time discounting in climate change decision-making has been conducted within climate economics, between the authors of Stern et al. (Stern review on the economics of climate change, 2006) and their critics (most prominently Dasgupta in Comments on the Stern review's economics of climate change, 2006; Tol in Energy Environ 17(6):977-981, 2006; Weitzman in J Econ Lit XLV:703-724, 2007; Nordhaus in J Econ Lit XLV:686-702, 2007). The article examines the role of values in this debate. Firstly, it is shown that time discounting is a case in which values are key because it is at heart an ethical problem. Secondly, it is argued that time discounting in climate economics is a case of economists making frequent and routine references to ethical values and indeed conduct ethical debates with each other. Thirdly, it is argued that there is evidence for deep and pervasive entanglement between facts and values in the prevalent methodologies for time discounting. Finally, it is argued that this means that economists have given up the 'value-free ideal' concerning time discounting, and discussed how the current methodology of time discounting in economics can be improved.

Uncertain impacts on economic growth when stabilizing global temperatures at 1.5°C or 2°C warming

PubMed Central

Schwarz, Moritz; Tang, Kevin; Haustein, Karsten; Allen, Myles R.

2018-01-01

Empirical evidence suggests that variations in climate affect economic growth across countries over time. However, little is known about the relative impacts of climate change on economic outcomes when global mean surface temperature (GMST) is stabilized at 1.5°C or 2°C warming relative to pre-industrial levels. Here we use a new set of climate simulations under 1.5°C and 2°C warming from the ‘Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts' (HAPPI) project to assess changes in economic growth using empirical estimates of climate impacts in a global panel dataset. Panel estimation results that are robust to outliers and breaks suggest that within-year variability of monthly temperatures and precipitation has little effect on economic growth beyond global nonlinear temperature effects. While expected temperature changes under a GMST increase of 1.5°C lead to proportionally higher warming in the Northern Hemisphere, the projected impact on economic growth is larger in the Tropics and Southern Hemisphere. Accounting for econometric estimation and climate uncertainty, the projected impacts on economic growth of 1.5°C warming are close to indistinguishable from current climate conditions, while 2°C warming suggests statistically lower economic growth for a large set of countries (median projected annual growth up to 2% lower). Level projections of gross domestic product (GDP) per capita exhibit high uncertainties, with median projected global average GDP per capita approximately 5% lower at the end of the century under 2°C warming relative to 1.5°C. The correlation between climate-induced reductions in per capita GDP growth and national income levels is significant at the p < 0.001 level, with lower-income countries experiencing greater losses, which may increase economic inequality between countries and is relevant to discussions of loss and damage under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. This article is part of the theme issue ‘The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'. PMID:29610370

Uncertain impacts on economic growth when stabilizing global temperatures at 1.5°C or 2°C warming.

PubMed

Pretis, Felix; Schwarz, Moritz; Tang, Kevin; Haustein, Karsten; Allen, Myles R

2018-05-13

Empirical evidence suggests that variations in climate affect economic growth across countries over time. However, little is known about the relative impacts of climate change on economic outcomes when global mean surface temperature (GMST) is stabilized at 1.5°C or 2°C warming relative to pre-industrial levels. Here we use a new set of climate simulations under 1.5°C and 2°C warming from the 'Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts' (HAPPI) project to assess changes in economic growth using empirical estimates of climate impacts in a global panel dataset. Panel estimation results that are robust to outliers and breaks suggest that within-year variability of monthly temperatures and precipitation has little effect on economic growth beyond global nonlinear temperature effects. While expected temperature changes under a GMST increase of 1.5°C lead to proportionally higher warming in the Northern Hemisphere, the projected impact on economic growth is larger in the Tropics and Southern Hemisphere. Accounting for econometric estimation and climate uncertainty, the projected impacts on economic growth of 1.5°C warming are close to indistinguishable from current climate conditions, while 2°C warming suggests statistically lower economic growth for a large set of countries (median projected annual growth up to 2% lower). Level projections of gross domestic product (GDP) per capita exhibit high uncertainties, with median projected global average GDP per capita approximately 5% lower at the end of the century under 2°C warming relative to 1.5°C. The correlation between climate-induced reductions in per capita GDP growth and national income levels is significant at the p  < 0.001 level, with lower-income countries experiencing greater losses, which may increase economic inequality between countries and is relevant to discussions of loss and damage under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.This article is part of the theme issue 'The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'. © 2018 The Authors.

Uncertain impacts on economic growth when stabilizing global temperatures at 1.5°C or 2°C warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pretis, Felix; Schwarz, Moritz; Tang, Kevin; Haustein, Karsten; Allen, Myles R.

2018-05-01

Empirical evidence suggests that variations in climate affect economic growth across countries over time. However, little is known about the relative impacts of climate change on economic outcomes when global mean surface temperature (GMST) is stabilized at 1.5°C or 2°C warming relative to pre-industrial levels. Here we use a new set of climate simulations under 1.5°C and 2°C warming from the `Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts' (HAPPI) project to assess changes in economic growth using empirical estimates of climate impacts in a global panel dataset. Panel estimation results that are robust to outliers and breaks suggest that within-year variability of monthly temperatures and precipitation has little effect on economic growth beyond global nonlinear temperature effects. While expected temperature changes under a GMST increase of 1.5°C lead to proportionally higher warming in the Northern Hemisphere, the projected impact on economic growth is larger in the Tropics and Southern Hemisphere. Accounting for econometric estimation and climate uncertainty, the projected impacts on economic growth of 1.5°C warming are close to indistinguishable from current climate conditions, while 2°C warming suggests statistically lower economic growth for a large set of countries (median projected annual growth up to 2% lower). Level projections of gross domestic product (GDP) per capita exhibit high uncertainties, with median projected global average GDP per capita approximately 5% lower at the end of the century under 2°C warming relative to 1.5°C. The correlation between climate-induced reductions in per capita GDP growth and national income levels is significant at the p < 0.001 level, with lower-income countries experiencing greater losses, which may increase economic inequality between countries and is relevant to discussions of loss and damage under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. This article is part of the theme issue `The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'.

New Reasons to Preserve the Amazon Rainforest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Costa, M. H.

2014-12-01

Historically, preservation of the rainforest was justified in terms of conservation of biodiversity, protection of indigenous people habitats and maintenance of carbon stocks. Most of these arguments are based on the direct effect of rainforest removal, and ignore second order effects of the presence of the rainforest, such as modulation of regional climate patterns. The rainforest helps define the regional climate of the region, in particular the regional temperature and precipitation patterns. Of course, any activity that depends on the local climate may be affected by changes in the rainforest. Recent evidence in the literature presented enough arguments to believe that the widespread removal of the rainforest will have economic consequences at least in agriculture output and hydroelectric power generation. Economic impacts may affect not only the agriculture and energy sectors, but also several other economic activities that are related to climate. As a country, we are counting with the climate of Amazonia as fixed, but if the present climate needs the presence of the rainforest, we need to quantify the economic value of the climate regulation service provided by the rainforest. Important questions to be answered: How much of the rainforest is needed to conserve the present climate? Where it should stand for best climate regulation? Answer to these questions may affect Brazil´s large-scale policy on land use.

Climate effects of reducing black carbon emissions: Dependence on location of emission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fuglestvedt, J.; Berntsen, T.; Myhre, G.; Rive, N. A.; Rypdal, K.; Gerland, S.; Pedersen, C.; Strøm, J.

2006-12-01

The role played by emissions of black carbon aerosols (BC) on the Earth's climate is diverse and the overall effect is still quite uncertain: Black carbon not only absorbs sunlight (direct effect), but it also has a semi- direct effect on clouds, and when deposited on snow and ice it changes the reflectivity (albedo) of the ground surface. These mechanisms generally have a warming effect on the climate. This poster presents a Norwegian project that focus on the net effect of current BC emissions and future possible reductions in emissions of BC aerosols, taking into account scientific, economic, and political perspectives on the inclusion of BC in climate policies. Thus, the scope of the project is interdisciplinary and includes observations in the Arctic, model simulations of dispersion of BC aerosols, its radiative forcing and climate effects. Some initial results from measurements of BC content in snow from the Norwegian Arctic and corresponding measurements for surface reflectance will be presented. The radiative forcing of BC emissions from different geographical regions differs due to differences in the removal processes (i.e. the lifetime) and the amount of solar radiation available for absorption (depends on latitude, clouds, and surface albedo). The atmospheric burdens and RF (of the direct effect) of regional BC emissions from fossil fuel sources have been calculated by the global chemical transport model Oslo-CTM2 and a radiative transfer model, and first results of time-integrated RF per unit of emission (equivalent to absolute GWPs) are presented. Future plans including i) analysis of cost effective emission reduction strategies, taking into account regional differences the forcing efficiencies, but also cost estimates for BC reductions in the different regions, and ii) an evaluation of the climate effects of the emission reductions through model simulations, including climatic, economic and political perspectives exploring obstacles and opportunities will also be presented.

Linking Physical Climate Research and Economic Assessments of Mitigation Policies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stainforth, David; Calel, Raphael

2017-04-01

Evaluating climate change policies requires economic assessments which balance the costs and benefits of climate action. A certain class of Integrated Assessment Models (IAMS) are widely used for this type of analysis; DICE, PAGE and FUND are three of the most influential. In the economics community there has been much discussion and debate about the economic assumptions implemented within these models. Two aspects in particular have gained much attention: i) the costs of damages resulting from climate change - the so-called damage function, and ii) the choice of discount rate applied to future costs and benefits. There has, however, been rather little attention given to the consequences of the choices made in the physical climate models within these IAMS. Here we discuss the practical aspects of the implementation of the physical models in these IAMS, as well as the implications of choices made in these physical science components for economic assessments[1]. We present a simple breakdown of how these IAMS differently represent the climate system as a consequence of differing underlying physical models, different parametric assumptions (for parameters representing, for instance, feedbacks and ocean heat uptake) and different numerical approaches to solving the models. We present the physical and economic consequences of these differences and reflect on how we might better incorporate the latest physical science understanding in economic models of this type. [1] Calel, R. and Stainforth D.A., "On the Physics of Three Integrated Assessment Models", Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, in press.

Linkages of periodic climatic and social-economic changes in China during the past 2000 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fang, Xiuqi; Su, Yu; Yin, Jun; Wei, Zhudeng

2016-04-01

Impacts of climate change on rise and fall of human civilization in the history could provide lessons for understanding how impacts of climatic change and human response interacted. However, such a study is highly restricted by lacking in high-resolution series concerning long-term social-economic processes. China is a country that has great potential for providing long-term socio-economic series in high-resolution because it has abundant related historical records as long as thousands of years in the Chinese historical literatures. In this paper, A methodology named Semantic Differential for quantifying historical literal descriptions to grade numbers is developed. Using the methodology, 10-year resolution graded series of social-economic system change of China, including harvest of agriculture, economy, social rise and fall, are reconstructed during the past 2000 years. To compare the periodic changes of climate, harvest, economy, social rise and fall in China during the past 2000 years, it is found that : (1) There are similar periods on multiple time scales among all the series. (2) On the centurial scale, the better economic and social phases generally occurred in the better harvest phases when generally had a warm climate. (3) In the warm phases, both economic and social status were recovered faster and flourished longer than that in the cold phases. (4) The direct impact of climatic change on food security could be enlarged or diminished when it transmitted from harvest I to other social-economic subsystems because of feedbacks of the system.

Climate change mitigation through livestock system transitions

PubMed Central

Havlík, Petr; Valin, Hugo; Herrero, Mario; Obersteiner, Michael; Schmid, Erwin; Rufino, Mariana C.; Mosnier, Aline; Thornton, Philip K.; Böttcher, Hannes; Conant, Richard T.; Frank, Stefan; Fritz, Steffen; Fuss, Sabine; Kraxner, Florian; Notenbaert, An

2014-01-01

Livestock are responsible for 12% of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Sustainable intensification of livestock production systems might become a key climate mitigation technology. However, livestock production systems vary substantially, making the implementation of climate mitigation policies a formidable challenge. Here, we provide results from an economic model using a detailed and high-resolution representation of livestock production systems. We project that by 2030 autonomous transitions toward more efficient systems would decrease emissions by 736 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent per year (MtCO2e⋅y−1), mainly through avoided emissions from the conversion of 162 Mha of natural land. A moderate mitigation policy targeting emissions from both the agricultural and land-use change sectors with a carbon price of US$10 per tCO2e could lead to an abatement of 3,223 MtCO2e⋅y−1. Livestock system transitions would contribute 21% of the total abatement, intra- and interregional relocation of livestock production another 40%, and all other mechanisms would add 39%. A comparable abatement of 3,068 MtCO2e⋅y−1 could be achieved also with a policy targeting only emissions from land-use change. Stringent climate policies might lead to reductions in food availability of up to 200 kcal per capita per day globally. We find that mitigation policies targeting emissions from land-use change are 5 to 10 times more efficient—measured in “total abatement calorie cost”—than policies targeting emissions from livestock only. Thus, fostering transitions toward more productive livestock production systems in combination with climate policies targeting the land-use change appears to be the most efficient lever to deliver desirable climate and food availability outcomes. PMID:24567375

More efficient irrigation may compensate for increases in irrigation water requirements due to climate change in the Mediterranean area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fader, Marianela; Shi, Sinan; von Bloh, Werner; Bondeau, Alberte; Cramer, Wolfgang

2017-04-01

Irrigation in the Mediterranean is of vital importance for food security, employment and economic development. We will present a recently published study1 that estimates the current level of water demand for Mediterranean agriculture and simulates the potential impacts of climate change, population growth and transitions to water-saving irrigation and conveyance technologies. The results indicate that, at present, Mediterranean region could save 35% of water by implementing more efficient irrigation and conveyance systems, with large differences in the saving potentials across countries. Under climate change, more efficient irrigation is of vital importance for counteracting increases in irrigation water requirements. The Mediterranean area as a whole might face an increase in gross irrigation requirements between 4% and 18% from climate change alone by the end of the century if irrigation systems and conveyance are not improved. Population growth increases these numbers to 22% and 74%, respectively, affecting mainly the Southern and Eastern Mediterranean. However, improved irrigation technologies and conveyance systems have large water saving potentials, especially in the Eastern Mediterranean. Both the Eastern and the Southern Mediterranean would need around 35% more water than today if they could afford some degree of modernization of irrigation and conveyance systems and benefit from the CO2-fertilization effect. However, in some scenarios water scarcity may constrain the supply of the irrigation water needed in future in Algeria, Libya, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, Serbia, Morocco, Tunisia and Spain. In this study, vegetation growth, phenology, agricultural production and irrigation water requirements and withdrawal were simulated with the process-based ecohydrological and agro-ecosystem model LPJmL ("Lund-Potsdam-Jena managed Land") after a large development2 that comprised the improved representation of Mediterranean crops.

Coupling Climate Models and Forward-Looking Economic Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Judd, K.; Brock, W. A.

2010-12-01

Authors: Dr. Kenneth L. Judd, Hoover Institution, and Prof. William A. Brock, University of Wisconsin Current climate models range from General Circulation Models (GCM’s) with millions of degrees of freedom to models with few degrees of freedom. Simple Energy Balance Climate Models (EBCM’s) help us understand the dynamics of GCM’s. The same is true in economics with Computable General Equilibrium Models (CGE’s) where some models are infinite-dimensional multidimensional differential equations but some are simple models. Nordhaus (2007, 2010) couples a simple EBCM with a simple economic model. One- and two- dimensional ECBM’s do better at approximating damages across the globe and positive and negative feedbacks from anthroprogenic forcing (North etal. (1981), Wu and North (2007)). A proper coupling of climate and economic systems is crucial for arriving at effective policies. Brock and Xepapadeas (2010) have used Fourier/Legendre based expansions to study the shape of socially optimal carbon taxes over time at the planetary level in the face of damages caused by polar ice cap melt (as discussed by Oppenheimer, 2005) but in only a “one dimensional” EBCM. Economists have used orthogonal polynomial expansions to solve dynamic, forward-looking economic models (Judd, 1992, 1998). This presentation will couple EBCM climate models with basic forward-looking economic models, and examine the effectiveness and scaling properties of alternative solution methods. We will use a two dimensional EBCM model on the sphere (Wu and North, 2007) and a multicountry, multisector regional model of the economic system. Our aim will be to gain insights into intertemporal shape of the optimal carbon tax schedule, and its impact on global food production, as modeled by Golub and Hertel (2009). We will initially have limited computing resources and will need to focus on highly aggregated models. However, this will be more complex than existing models with forward-looking economic modules, and the initial models will help guide the construction of more refined models that can effectively use more powerful computational environments to analyze economic policies related to climate change. REFERENCES Brock, W., Xepapadeas, A., 2010, “An Integration of Simple Dynamic Energy Balance Climate Models and Ramsey Growth Models,” Department of Economics, University of Wisconsin, Madison, and University of Athens. Golub, A., Hertel, T., etal., 2009, “The opportunity cost of land use and the global potential for greenhouse gas mitigation in agriculture and forestry,” RESOURCE AND ENERGY ECONOMICS, 31, 299-319. Judd, K., 1992, “Projection methods for solving aggregate growth models,” JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC THEORY, 58: 410-52. Judd, K., 1998, NUMERICAL METHODS IN ECONOMICS, MIT Press, Cambridge, Mass. Nordhaus, W., 2007, A QUESTION OF BALANCE: ECONOMIC MODELS OF CLIMATE CHANGE, Yale University Press, New Haven, CT. North, G., R., Cahalan, R., Coakely, J., 1981, “Energy balance climate models,” REVIEWS OF GEOPHYSICS AND SPACE PHYSICS, Vol. 19, No. 1, 91-121, February Wu, W., North, G. R., 2007, “Thermal decay modes of a 2-D energy balance climate model,” TELLUS, 59A, 618-626.

The Importance of Considering the Temporal Distribution of Climate Variables for Ecological-Economic Modeling to Calculate the Consequences of Climate Change for Agriculture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Plegnière, Sabrina; Casper, Markus; Hecker, Benjamin; Müller-Fürstenberger, Georg

2014-05-01

The basis of many models to calculate and assess climate change and its consequences are annual means of temperature and precipitation. This method leads to many uncertainties especially at the regional or local level: the results are not realistic or too coarse. Particularly in agriculture, single events and the distribution of precipitation and temperature during the growing season have enormous influences on plant growth. Therefore, the temporal distribution of climate variables should not be ignored. To reach this goal, a high-resolution ecological-economic model was developed which combines a complex plant growth model (STICS) and an economic model. In this context, input data of the plant growth model are daily climate values for a specific climate station calculated by the statistical climate model (WETTREG). The economic model is deduced from the results of the plant growth model STICS. The chosen plant is corn because corn is often cultivated and used in many different ways. First of all, a sensitivity analysis showed that the plant growth model STICS is suitable to calculate the influences of different cultivation methods and climate on plant growth or yield as well as on soil fertility, e.g. by nitrate leaching, in a realistic way. Additional simulations helped to assess a production function that is the key element of the economic model. Thereby the problems when using mean values of temperature and precipitation in order to compute a production function by linear regression are pointed out. Several examples show why a linear regression to assess a production function based on mean climate values or smoothed natural distribution leads to imperfect results and why it is not possible to deduce a unique climate factor in the production function. One solution for this problem is the additional consideration of stress indices that show the impairment of plants by water or nitrate shortage. Thus, the resulting model takes into account not only the ecological factors (e.g. the plant growth) or the economical factors as a simple monetary calculation, but also their mutual influences. Finally, the ecological-economic model enables us to make a risk assessment or evaluate adaptation strategies.

Integrated economic and climate projections for impact assessment

EPA Science Inventory

We designed scenarios for impact assessment that explicitly address policy choices and uncertainty in climate response. Economic projections and the resulting greenhouse gas emissions for the “no climate policy” scenario and two stabilization scenarios: at 4.5 W/m2 and 3.7 W/m2 b...

75 FR 63147 - Solicitation of Applications for the Public Works, Economic Adjustment Assistance, and Global...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-10-14

...] Solicitation of Applications for the Public Works, Economic Adjustment Assistance, and Global Climate Change... Program; and (iii) Global Climate Change Mitigation Incentive Fund (GCCMIF) Program. To enhance the...; and (iii) Global Climate Change Mitigation Incentive Fund (GCCMIF) Program. EDA will publish separate...

China's growing CO2 emissions--a race between increasing consumption and efficiency gains.

PubMed

Peters, Glen P; Weber, Christopher L; Guan, Dabo; Hubacek, Klaus

2007-09-01

China's rapidly growing economy and energy consumption are creating serious environmental problems on both local and global scales. Understanding the key drivers behind China's growing energy consumption and the associated CO2 emissions is critical for the development of global climate policies and provides insight into how other emerging economies may develop a low emissions future. Using recently released Chinese economic input-output data and structural decomposition analysis we analyze how changes in China's technology, economic structure, urbanization, and lifestyles affect CO2 emissions. We find that infrastructure construction and urban household consumption, both in turn driven by urbanization and lifestyle changes, have outpaced efficiency improvements in the growth of CO2 emissions. Net trade had a small effect on total emissions due to equal, but significant, growth in emissions from the production of exports and emissions avoided by imports. Technology and efficiency improvements have only partially offset consumption growth, but there remains considerable untapped potential to reduce emissions by improving both production and consumption systems. As China continues to rapidly develop there is an opportunity to further implement and extend policies, such as the Circular Economy, that will help China avoid the high emissions path taken by today's developed countries.

Forest economics and policy in a changing environment: how market, policy, and climate transformations affect forests -- Proceedings of the 2016 Meeting of the International Society of Forest Resource Economics

Treesearch

Gregory E. Frey; Prakash Nepal

2016-01-01

Economics can affect decisions about forest resource management and utilization, and in turn, the ecosystem benefits received. In a time of market, policy, and climate transformations, economic analyses are critical to help policy-makers and resource managers make appropriate decisions. At the 2016 Meeting of the International Society of Forest Resource Economics (...

The economics (or lack thereof) of aerosol geoengineering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goes, M.; Keller, K.; Tuana, N.

2009-04-01

Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are changing the Earth's climate and impose substantial risks for current and future generations. What are scientifically sound, economically viable, and ethically defendable strategies to manage these climate risks? Ratified international agreements call for a reduction of greenhouse gas emissions to avoid dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Recent proposals, however, call for the deployment of a different approach: to geoengineer climate by injecting aerosol precursors into the stratosphere. Published economic studies typically suggest that substituting aerosol geoengineering for abatement of carbon dioxide emissions results in large net monetary benefits. However, these studies neglect the risks of aerosol geoengineering due to (i) the potential for future geoengineering failures and (ii) the negative impacts associated with the aerosol forcing. Here we use a simple integrated assessment model of climate change to analyze potential economic impacts of aerosol geoengineering strategies over a wide range of uncertain parameters such as climate sensitivity, the economic damages due to climate change, and the economic damages due to aerosol geoengineering forcing. The simplicity of the model provides the advantages of parsimony and transparency, but it also imposes severe caveats on the interpretation of the results. For example, the analysis is based on a globally aggregated model and is hence silent on the question of intragenerational distribution of costs and benefits. In addition, the analysis neglects the effects of endogenous learning about the climate system. We show that the risks associated with a future geoengineering failure and negative impacts of aerosol forcings can cause geoenginering strategies to fail an economic cost-benefit test. One key to this finding is that a geoengineering failure would lead to dramatic and abrupt climatic changes. The monetary damages due to this failure can dominate the cost-benefit analysis because the monetary damages of climate change are expected to increase with the rate of change. Substituting aerosol geoengineering for greenhouse gas emission abatement might fail not only an economic cost-benefit test but also an ethical test of distributional justice. Substituting aerosol geoengineering for greenhouse gas emissions abatements constitutes a conscious risk transfer to future generations. Intergenerational justice demands distributional justice, namely that present generations may not create benefits for themselves in exchange for burdens on future generations. We use the economic model to quantify this risk transfer to better inform the judgment of whether substituting aerosol geoengineering for carbon dioxide emission abatement fails this ethical test.

Climate change adaptation strategies and mitigation policies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

García Fernández, Cristina

2015-04-01

The pace of climate change and the consequent warming of the Earth's surface is increasing vulnerability and decreasing adaptive capacity. Achieving a successful adaptation depends on the development of technology, institutional organization, financing availability and the exchange of information. Populations living in arid and semi-arid zones, low-lying coastal areas, land with water shortages or at risk of overflow or small islands are particularly vulnerable to climate change. Due to increasing population density in sensitive areas, some regions have become more vulnerable to events such as storms, floods and droughts, like the river basins and coastal plains. Human activities have fragmented and increased the vulnerability of ecosystems, which limit both, their natural adaptation and the effectiveness of the measures adopted. Adaptation means to carry out the necessary modifications for society to adapt to new climatic conditions in order to reduce their vulnerability to climate change. Adaptive capacity is the ability of a system to adjust to climate change (including climate variability and extremes) and to moderate potential damages, to take advantage of opportunities or face the consequences. Adaptation reduces the adverse impacts of climate change and enhance beneficial impacts, but will not prevent substantial cost that are produced by all damages. The performances require adaptation actions. These are defined and implemented at national, regional or local levels since many of the impacts and vulnerabilities depend on the particular economic, geographic and social circumstances of each country or region. We will present some adaptation strategies at national and local level and revise some cases of its implementation in several vulnerable areas. However, adaptation to climate change must be closely related to mitigation policies because the degree of change planned in different climatic variables is a function of the concentration levels that are achieved by greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Mitigation and adaptation are therefore complementary actions. In the long term, climate change without mitigation measures will likely exceed the adaptive capacity of natural, managed and human systems. Early adoption of mitigation measures would break the dependence on carbon-intensive infrastructures and reduce adaptation needs to climate change. It also can save on adaptation cost. Therefore mitigation is the key objective of the global warming problem but little is being done in this field. We will present some proposals of "preventive economically efficient" policies at a global and regional level which will constitute the complement to the adaptation aspect.

Fine-scale ecological and economic assessment of climate change on olive in the Mediterranean Basin reveals winners and losers

PubMed Central

Ponti, Luigi; Gutierrez, Andrew Paul; Ruti, Paolo Michele; Dell’Aquila, Alessandro

2014-01-01

The Mediterranean Basin is a climate and biodiversity hot spot, and climate change threatens agro-ecosystems such as olive, an ancient drought-tolerant crop of considerable ecological and socioeconomic importance. Climate change will impact the interactions of olive and the obligate olive fruit fly (Bactrocera oleae), and alter the economics of olive culture across the Basin. We estimate the effects of climate change on the dynamics and interaction of olive and the fly using physiologically based demographic models in a geographic information system context as driven by daily climate change scenario weather. A regional climate model that includes fine-scale representation of the effects of topography and the influence of the Mediterranean Sea on regional climate was used to scale the global climate data. The system model for olive/olive fly was used as the production function in our economic analysis, replacing the commonly used production-damage control function. Climate warming will affect olive yield and fly infestation levels across the Basin, resulting in economic winners and losers at the local and regional scales. At the local scale, profitability of small olive farms in many marginal areas of Europe and elsewhere in the Basin will decrease, leading to increased abandonment. These marginal farms are critical to conserving soil, maintaining biodiversity, and reducing fire risk in these areas. Our fine-scale bioeconomic approach provides a realistic prototype for assessing climate change impacts in other Mediterranean agro-ecosystems facing extant and new invasive pests. PMID:24706833

Fine-scale ecological and economic assessment of climate change on olive in the Mediterranean Basin reveals winners and losers.

PubMed

Ponti, Luigi; Gutierrez, Andrew Paul; Ruti, Paolo Michele; Dell'Aquila, Alessandro

2014-04-15

The Mediterranean Basin is a climate and biodiversity hot spot, and climate change threatens agro-ecosystems such as olive, an ancient drought-tolerant crop of considerable ecological and socioeconomic importance. Climate change will impact the interactions of olive and the obligate olive fruit fly (Bactrocera oleae), and alter the economics of olive culture across the Basin. We estimate the effects of climate change on the dynamics and interaction of olive and the fly using physiologically based demographic models in a geographic information system context as driven by daily climate change scenario weather. A regional climate model that includes fine-scale representation of the effects of topography and the influence of the Mediterranean Sea on regional climate was used to scale the global climate data. The system model for olive/olive fly was used as the production function in our economic analysis, replacing the commonly used production-damage control function. Climate warming will affect olive yield and fly infestation levels across the Basin, resulting in economic winners and losers at the local and regional scales. At the local scale, profitability of small olive farms in many marginal areas of Europe and elsewhere in the Basin will decrease, leading to increased abandonment. These marginal farms are critical to conserving soil, maintaining biodiversity, and reducing fire risk in these areas. Our fine-scale bioeconomic approach provides a realistic prototype for assessing climate change impacts in other Mediterranean agro-ecosystems facing extant and new invasive pests.

Quantifying and Valuing Potential Climate Change Impacts on Coral Reefs in the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wobus, C. W.; Lane, D.; Buddemeier, R. W.; Ready, R. C.; Shouse, K. C.; Martinich, J.

2012-12-01

Global climate change presents a two-pronged threat to coral reef ecosystems: increasing sea surface temperatures will increase the likelihood of episodic bleaching events, while increasing ocean carbon dioxide concentrations will change the carbonate chemistry that drives coral growth. Because coral reefs have important societal as well as ecological benefits, climate change mitigation policies that ameliorate these impacts may create substantial economic value. We present a model that evaluates both the ecological and the economic impacts of climate change on coral reefs in the United States. We use a coral reef mortality and bleaching model to project future coral reef declines under a range of climate change policy scenarios for south Florida, Puerto Rico and Hawaii. Using a benefits transfer approach, the outputs from the physical model are then used to quantify the economic impacts of these coral reef declines for each of these regions. We find that differing climate change trajectories create substantial changes in projected coral cover and value for Hawaii, but that the ecological and economic benefits of more stringent emissions scenarios are less clear for Florida and Puerto Rico. Overall, our results indicate that the effectiveness of climate change mitigation policies may be region-specific, but that these policies could result in a net increase of nearly $10 billion in economic value from coral reef-related recreational activities alone, over the 21st century.

Modelling the impact of future socio-economic and climate change scenarios on river microbial water quality.

PubMed

Islam, M M Majedul; Iqbal, Muhammad Shahid; Leemans, Rik; Hofstra, Nynke

2018-03-01

Microbial surface water quality is important, as it is related to health risk when the population is exposed through drinking, recreation or consumption of irrigated vegetables. The microbial surface water quality is expected to change with socio-economic development and climate change. This study explores the combined impacts of future socio-economic and climate change scenarios on microbial water quality using a coupled hydrodynamic and water quality model (MIKE21FM-ECOLab). The model was applied to simulate the baseline (2014-2015) and future (2040s and 2090s) faecal indicator bacteria (FIB: E. coli and enterococci) concentrations in the Betna river in Bangladesh. The scenarios comprise changes in socio-economic variables (e.g. population, urbanization, land use, sanitation and sewage treatment) and climate variables (temperature, precipitation and sea-level rise). Scenarios have been developed building on the most recent Shared Socio-economic Pathways: SSP1 and SSP3 and Representative Concentration Pathways: RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 in a matrix. An uncontrolled future results in a deterioration of the microbial water quality (+75% by the 2090s) due to socio-economic changes, such as higher population growth, and changes in rainfall patterns. However, microbial water quality improves under a sustainable scenario with improved sewage treatment (-98% by the 2090s). Contaminant loads were more influenced by changes in socio-economic factors than by climatic change. To our knowledge, this is the first study that combines climate change and socio-economic development scenarios to simulate the future microbial water quality of a river. This approach can also be used to assess future consequences for health risks. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier GmbH.. All rights reserved.

Assessment of the Effect of Climate Change on Grain Yields in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chou, J.

2006-12-01

The paper elaborates the social background and research background; makes clear what the key scientific issues need to be resolved and where the difficulties are. In the research area of parasailing the grain yield change caused by climate change, massive works have been done both in the domestic and in the foreign. It is our upcoming work to evaluate how our countrywide climate change information provided by this pattern influence our economic and social development; and how to make related policies and countermeasures. the main idea in this paper is that the grain yield change is by no means the linear composition of social economy function effect and the climatic change function effect. This paper identifies the economic evaluation object, proposes one new concept - climate change output. The grain yields change affected by the social factors and the climatic change working together. Climate change influences the grain yields by the non ¨C linear function from both climate change and social factor changes, not only by climate change itself. Therefore, in my paper, the appraisal object is defined as: The social factors change based on actual social changing situations; under the two kinds of climate change situation, the invariable climate change situation and variable climate change situation; the difference of grain yield outputs is called " climate change output ", In order to solve this problem, we propose a method to analyze and imitate on the historical materials. Giving the condition that the climate is invariable, the social economic factor changes cause the grain yield change. However, this grain yield change is a tentative quantity index, not an actual quantity number. So we use the existing historical materials to exam the climate change output, based on the characteristic that social factor changes greater in year than in age, but the climate factor changes greater in age than in year. The paper proposes and establishes one economy - climate model (C-D-C model) to appraise the grain yield change caused by the climatic change. Also the preliminary test on this model has been done. In selection of the appraisal methods, we take the C-D production function model, which has been proved more mature in the economic research, as our fundamental model. Then, we introduce climate index (arid index) to the C-D model to develop one new model. This new model utilizes the climatic change factor in the economical model to appraise how the climatic change influence the grain yield change. The new way of appraise should have the better application prospect. The economy - climate model (The C-D-C model) has been applied on the eight Chinese regions that we divide; it has been proved satisfactory in its feasibility, rationality and the application prospect. So we can provide the theoretical fundamentals for policy-making under the more complex and uncertain climate change. Therefore, we open a new possible channel for the global climate change research moving toward the actual social, economic life.

World Economic Growth and Oil: a Producers' Perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shihab-Eldin, Adnan

2014-07-01

This paper examines the following assertions: * A high share of oil price in GDP limits economic growth, * Oil Price shocks trigger recession, * These effects will be escalated by peaked oil supply and rising developing world demand and together with increasing contributions to climate change will result in a global emergency. The role of energy in societal development and economic growth, from primitive man through the industrial revolution and the oil age to the present and the evolution of energy intensity are described. The principle role of oil as a transport fuel and the possibilities of alternatives are examined. It is concluded that oil dependence will continue for the foreseeable future. The history of the industry, market behavior and its economic effects are presented to establish precedent and the assertions are then examined. It is shown that rising oil prices are an unavoidable consequence of economic growth, that they have stimulated efficient minimum functional use and made more difficult conventional and unconventional sources economic. It is then argued that potentially these additional resources eliminate the possibility of supply shortage and that diversification of supply lessens the possibility of shock, together rendering a global emergency less likely than could have been previously envisaged.

Influence of watershed topographic and socio-economic attributes on the climate sensitivity of global river water quality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khan, Afed U.; Jiang, Jiping; Wang, Peng; Zheng, Yi

2017-10-01

Surface waters exhibit regionalization due to various climatic conditions and anthropogenic activities. Here we assess the impact of topographic and socio-economic factors on the climate sensitivity of surface water quality, estimated using an elasticity approach (climate elasticity of water quality (CEWQ)), and identify potential risks of instability in different regions and climatic conditions. Large global datasets were used for 12 main water quality parameters from 43 water quality monitoring stations located at large major rivers. The results demonstrated that precipitation elasticity shows higher sensitivity to topographic and socio-economic determinants as compared to temperature elasticity. In tropical climate class (A), gross domestic product (GDP) played an important role in stabilizing the CEWQ. In temperate climate class (C), GDP played the same role in stability, while the runoff coefficient, slope, and population density fuelled the risk of instability. The results implied that watersheds with lower runoff coefficient, thick population density, over fertilization and manure application face a higher risk of instability. We discuss the socio-economic and topographic factors that cause instability of CEWQ parameters and conclude with some suggestions for watershed managers to bring sustainability in freshwater bodies.

Global Climate Change - U.S. Economic and National Security Opportunity

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-03-20

The most recent findings of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) state that the current trajectory of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions...challenges and opportunities for the United States as they balance national security and economic interests. The effects of climate change could act as a...are various opportunities associated with climate change including opening arctic navigational channels and the vast oil and natural gas resources

Economic Growth, Climate Change, and Obesity.

PubMed

Minos, Dimitrios; Butzlaff, Iris; Demmler, Kathrin Maria; Rischke, Ramona

2016-12-01

Human and planetary health as well as economic growth are firmly interlinked and subject to complex interaction effects. In this paper, we provide an overview of interlinkages between economic growth, climate change, and obesity focusing on recent advances in the literature. In addition to empirical findings, we discuss different theoretical frameworks used to conceptualize these complex links and highlight policy options and challenges. We conclude that policies addressing both climate change and obesity simultaneously are particularly promising and often suitable for ensuring sustainable development.

Climate change mitigation: comparative assessment of Malaysian and ASEAN scenarios.

PubMed

Rasiah, Rajah; Ahmed, Adeel; Al-Amin, Abul Quasem; Chenayah, Santha

2017-01-01

This paper analyses empirically the optimal climate change mitigation policy of Malaysia with the business as usual scenario of ASEAN to compare their environmental and economic consequences over the period 2010-2110. A downscaling empirical dynamic model is constructed using a dual multidisciplinary framework combining economic, earth science, and ecological variables to analyse the long-run consequences. The model takes account of climatic variables, including carbon cycle, carbon emission, climatic damage, carbon control, carbon concentration, and temperature. The results indicate that without optimal climate policy and action, the cumulative cost of climate damage for Malaysia and ASEAN as a whole over the period 2010-2110 would be MYR40.1 trillion and MYR151.0 trillion, respectively. Under the optimal policy, the cumulative cost of climatic damage for Malaysia would fall to MYR5.3 trillion over the 100 years. Also, the additional economic output of Malaysia will rise from MYR2.1 billion in 2010 to MYR3.6 billion in 2050 and MYR5.5 billion in 2110 under the optimal climate change mitigation scenario. The additional economic output for ASEAN would fall from MYR8.1 billion in 2010 to MYR3.2 billion in 2050 before rising again slightly to MYR4.7 billion in 2110 in the business as usual ASEAN scenario.

Economic development, climate and values: making policy.

PubMed

Stern, Nicholas

2015-08-07

The two defining challenges of this century are overcoming poverty and managing the risks of climate change. Over the past 10 years, we have learned much about how to tackle them together from ideas on economic development and public policy. My own work in these areas over four decades as an academic and as a policy adviser in universities and international financial institutions has focused on how the investment environment and the empowerment of people can change lives and livelihoods. The application of insights from economic development and public policy to climate change requires rigorous analysis of issues such as discounting, modelling the risks of unmanaged climate change, climate policy targets and estimates of the costs of mitigation. The latest research and results show that the case for avoiding the risks of dangerous climate change through the transition to low-carbon economic development and growth is still stronger than when the Stern Review was published. This is partly because of evidence that some of the impacts of climate change are happening more quickly than originally expected, and because of remarkable advances in technologies, such as solar power. Nevertheless, significant hurdles remain in securing the international cooperation required to avoid dangerous climate change, not least because of disagreements and misunderstandings about key issues, such as ethics and equity. © 2015 The Author(s).

Economic development, climate and values: making policy

PubMed Central

Stern, Nicholas

2015-01-01

The two defining challenges of this century are overcoming poverty and managing the risks of climate change. Over the past 10 years, we have learned much about how to tackle them together from ideas on economic development and public policy. My own work in these areas over four decades as an academic and as a policy adviser in universities and international financial institutions has focused on how the investment environment and the empowerment of people can change lives and livelihoods. The application of insights from economic development and public policy to climate change requires rigorous analysis of issues such as discounting, modelling the risks of unmanaged climate change, climate policy targets and estimates of the costs of mitigation. The latest research and results show that the case for avoiding the risks of dangerous climate change through the transition to low-carbon economic development and growth is still stronger than when the Stern Review was published. This is partly because of evidence that some of the impacts of climate change are happening more quickly than originally expected, and because of remarkable advances in technologies, such as solar power. Nevertheless, significant hurdles remain in securing the international cooperation required to avoid dangerous climate change, not least because of disagreements and misunderstandings about key issues, such as ethics and equity. PMID:26203007

An integrated assessment modeling framework for uncertainty studies in global and regional climate change: the MIT IGSM-CAM (version 1.0)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Monier, E.; Scott, J. R.; Sokolov, A. P.; Forest, C. E.; Schlosser, C. A.

2013-12-01

This paper describes a computationally efficient framework for uncertainty studies in global and regional climate change. In this framework, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Integrated Global System Model (IGSM), an integrated assessment model that couples an Earth system model of intermediate complexity to a human activity model, is linked to the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Atmosphere Model (CAM). Since the MIT IGSM-CAM framework (version 1.0) incorporates a human activity model, it is possible to analyze uncertainties in emissions resulting from both uncertainties in the underlying socio-economic characteristics of the economic model and in the choice of climate-related policies. Another major feature is the flexibility to vary key climate parameters controlling the climate system response to changes in greenhouse gases and aerosols concentrations, e.g., climate sensitivity, ocean heat uptake rate, and strength of the aerosol forcing. The IGSM-CAM is not only able to realistically simulate the present-day mean climate and the observed trends at the global and continental scale, but it also simulates ENSO variability with realistic time scales, seasonality and patterns of SST anomalies, albeit with stronger magnitudes than observed. The IGSM-CAM shares the same general strengths and limitations as the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) models in simulating present-day annual mean surface temperature and precipitation. Over land, the IGSM-CAM shows similar biases to the NCAR Community Climate System Model (CCSM) version 3, which shares the same atmospheric model. This study also presents 21st century simulations based on two emissions scenarios (unconstrained scenario and stabilization scenario at 660 ppm CO2-equivalent) similar to, respectively, the Representative Concentration Pathways RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 scenarios, and three sets of climate parameters. Results of the simulations with the chosen climate parameters provide a good approximation for the median, and the 5th and 95th percentiles of the probability distribution of 21st century changes in global mean surface air temperature from previous work with the IGSM. Because the IGSM-CAM framework only considers one particular climate model, it cannot be used to assess the structural modeling uncertainty arising from differences in the parameterization suites of climate models. However, comparison of the IGSM-CAM projections with simulations of 31 CMIP5 models under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios show that the range of warming at the continental scale shows very good agreement between the two ensemble simulations, except over Antarctica, where the IGSM-CAM overestimates the warming. This demonstrates that by sampling the climate system response, the IGSM-CAM, even though it relies on one single climate model, can essentially reproduce the range of future continental warming simulated by more than 30 different models. Precipitation changes projected in the IGSM-CAM simulations and the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble both display a large uncertainty at the continental scale. The two ensemble simulations show good agreement over Asia and Europe. However, the ranges of precipitation changes do not overlap - but display similar size - over Africa and South America, two continents where models generally show little agreement in the sign of precipitation changes and where CCSM3 tends to be an outlier. Overall, the IGSM-CAM provides an efficient and consistent framework to explore the large uncertainty in future projections of global and regional climate change associated with uncertainty in the climate response and projected emissions.

The Impact of an Economically Disadvantaged Student Population on School Climate

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Null, Curtis F.

2012-01-01

The purpose of this study was to determine the relationship between student poverty levels, defined by the number of students identified as economically disadvantaged by qualifying for free and reduced lunch and school climate. The literature review examined school climate and culture, effects of student socioeconomic (SES) status on education,…

Climate targets and cost-effective climate stabilization pathways

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Held, H.

2015-08-01

Climate economics has developed two main tools to derive an economically adequate response to the climate problem. Cost benefit analysis weighs in any available information on mitigation costs and benefits and thereby derives an "optimal" global mean temperature. Quite the contrary, cost effectiveness analysis allows deriving costs of potential policy targets and the corresponding cost- minimizing investment paths. The article highlights pros and cons of both approaches and then focusses on the implications of a policy that strives at limiting global warming to 2 °C compared to pre-industrial values. The related mitigation costs and changes in the energy sector are summarized according to the IPCC report of 2014. The article then points to conceptual difficulties when internalizing uncertainty in these types of analyses and suggests pragmatic solutions. Key statements on mitigation economics remain valid under uncertainty when being given the adequate interpretation. Furthermore, the expected economic value of perfect climate information is found to be on the order of hundreds of billions of Euro per year if a 2°-policy were requested. Finally, the prospects of climate policy are sketched.

Potential ecological and economic consequences of climate-driven agricultural and silvicultural transformations in central Siberia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tchebakova, Nadezhda M.; Zander, Evgeniya V.; Pyzhev, Anton I.; Parfenova, Elena I.; Soja, Amber J.

2014-05-01

Increased warming predicted from general circulation models (GCMs) by the end of the century is expected to dramatically impact Siberian forests. Both natural climate-change-caused disturbance (weather, wildfire, infestation) and anthropogenic disturbance (legal/illegal logging) has increased, and their impact on Siberian boreal forest has been mounting over the last three decades. The Siberian BioClimatic Model (SiBCliM) was used to simulate Siberian forests, and the resultant maps show a severely decreased forest that has shifted northwards and a changed composition. Predicted dryer climates would enhance the risks of high fire danger and thawing permafrost, both of which challenge contemporary ecosystems. Our current goal is to evaluate the ecological and economic consequences of climate warming, to optimise economic loss/gain effects in forestry versus agriculture, to question the relative economic value of supporting forestry, agriculture or a mixed agro-forestry at the southern forest border in central Siberia predicted to undergo the most noticeable landcover and landuse changes. We developed and used forest and agricultural bioclimatic models to predict forest shifts; novel tree species and their climatypes are introduced in a warmer climate and/or potential novel agriculture are introduced with a potential variety of crops by the end of the century. We applied two strategies to estimate climate change effects, motivated by forest disturbance. One is a genetic means of assisting trees and forests to be harmonized with a changing climate by developing management strategies for seed transfer to locations that are best ecologically suited to the genotypes in future climates. The second strategy is the establishment of agricultural lands in new forest-steppe and steppe habitats, because the forests would retreat northwards. Currently, food, forage, and biofuel crops primarily reside in the steppe and forest-steppe zones which are known to have favorable climatic and soil resources. During this century, traditional Siberian crops are predicted to gradually shift northwards and new crops, which are currently non-existent but potentially important in a warmer climate, could be introduced in the extreme south. In a future warmer climate, the economic effect of climate change impacts on agriculture was estimated based on a production function approach and the Ricardian model. The production function estimated climate impacts of temperature, precipitation and carbon dioxide levels. The Ricardian model examined climate impacts on the net rent or value of farmland at various regions. The models produced the optimal distribution of agricultural lands between crop, livestock, and forestry sectors to compensate economic losses in forestry in potential landuse areas depending on climatic change.

Sink or Swim: Adapting to the Hydrologic Impacts of Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gleick, P. H.

2014-12-01

Climate changes lead to a wide range of societal and environmental impacts; indeed, strong evidence has accrued that such impacts are already occurring, as summarized by the newest National Climate Assessment and other analyses. Among the most important will be alterations in the hydrologic cycle, changes in water supply and demand, and impacts on existing water-related infrastructure. Because of the complexity of our water systems, adaptation responses will be equally complex. This problem has made it difficult for water managers and planners to develop and implement adaptation strategies. This talk will address three ways to think about water-related adaptation approaches to climate change: (1) strategies that are already being implemented to address population and economic changes without climate change; (2) whether these first-line strategies are appropriate for additional impacts that might result from climatic changes; and (3) new approaches that might be necessary for new, non-linear, or threshold impacts. An effort will also be made to differentiate between adaptation strategies that influence the hydrologic cycle directly (e.g., cloud seeding), those that influence supply management (e.g., construction of additional reservoirs or water-distribution systems), and those that affect water demand (e.g., removal of outdoor landscaping, installation of efficient irrigation systems).

Epidemics in Ming and Qing China: Impacts of changes of climate and economic well-being.

PubMed

Pei, Qing; Zhang, David D; Li, Guodong; Winterhalder, Bruce; Lee, Harry F

2015-07-01

We investigated the mechanism of epidemics with the impacts of climate change and socio-economic fluctuations in the Ming and Qing Dynasties in China (AD 1368-1901). Using long-term and high-quality datasets, this study is the first quantitative research that verifies the 'climate change → economy → epidemics' mechanism in historical China by statistical methods that include correlation analysis, Granger causality analysis, ARX, and Poisson-ARX modeling. The analysis provides the evidences that climate change could only fundamentally lead to the epidemics spread and occurrence, but the depressed economic well-being is the direct trigger of epidemics spread and occurrence at the national and long term scale in historical China. Moreover, statistical modeling shows that economic well-being is more important than population pressure in the mechanism of epidemics. However, population pressure remains a key element in determining the social vulnerability of the epidemics occurrence under climate change. Notably, the findings not only support adaptation theories but also enhance our confidence to address climatic shocks if economic buffering capacity can be promoted steadily. The findings can be a basis for scientists and policymakers in addressing global and regional environmental changes. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Impacts of climate change on the food-energy-water nexus in the upper Yellow River Basin: An integrated hydro-economic modeling approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Si, Y.; Cai, X.

2017-12-01

The large-scale reservoir system built on the upper Yellow River serves multiple purposes. The generated hydropower supplies over 60% of the entire electricity for the regional power grid while the irrigated crop production feeds almost one-third of the total population throughout the whole river basin. Moreover, the reservoir system also bears the responsibility for controlling ice flood, which occurs during the non-flood season due to winter ice freezing followed by spring thawing process, and could be even more disastrous than the summer flood. The contradiction of water allocation to satisfy multi-sector demands while mitigating ice flood risk has been longstanding. However, few researchers endeavor to employ the nexus thinking to addressing the complexities involved in all the interlinked purposes. In this study, we develop an integrated hydro-economic model that can be used to explore both the tradeoffs and synergies between the multiple purposes, based on which the water infrastructures (e.g., reservoir, diversion canal, pumping well) can be coordinated for maximizing the co-benefits of multiple sectors. The model is based on a node-link schematic of multiple operations including hydropower generation, irrigation scheduling, and the conjunctive use of surface and ground water resources. In particular, the model depicts some details regarding reservoir operation rules during the ice season using two indicators, i.e., flow control period and flow control level. The rules are obtained from historical records using data mining techniques under different climate conditions, and they are added to the model as part of the system constraints. Future reservoir inflow series are generated by a hydrological model with future climate scenarios projected by General Circulation Model (GCM). By analyzing the model results under the various climate scenarios, the future possible shifting trajectory of the food-energy-water system characteristics will be derived compared to the baseline scenario (i.e., the status-quo condition). Thus the model and the results are expected to be useful for enlightening economically efficient water allocation policy coping with climate change.

Impacts of climate change on the global forest sector

USGS Publications Warehouse

Perez-Garcia, J.; Joyce, L.A.; McGuire, A.D.; Xiao, X.

2002-01-01

The path and magnitude of future anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide will likely influence changes in climate that may impact the global forest sector. These responses in the global forest sector may have implications for international efforts to stabilize the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide. This study takes a step toward including the role of global forest sector in integrated assessments of the global carbon cycle by linking global models of climate dynamics, ecosystem processes and forest economics to assess the potential responses of the global forest sector to different levels of greenhouse gas emissions. We utilize three climate scenarios and two economic scenarios to represent a range of greenhouse gas emissions and economic behavior. At the end of the analysis period (2040), the potential responses in regional forest growing stock simulated by the global ecosystem model range from decreases and increases for the low emissions climate scenario to increases in all regions for the high emissions climate scenario. The changes in vegetation are used to adjust timber supply in the softwood and hardwood sectors of the economic model. In general, the global changes in welfare are positive, but small across all scenarios. At the regional level, the changes in welfare can be large and either negative or positive. Markets and trade in forest products play important roles in whether a region realizes any gains associated with climate change. In general, regions with the lowest wood fiber production cost are able to expand harvests. Trade in forest products leads to lower prices elsewhere. The low-cost regions expand market shares and force higher-cost regions to decrease their harvests. Trade produces different economic gains and losses across the globe even though, globally, economic welfare increases. The results of this study indicate that assumptions within alternative climate scenarios and about trade in forest products are important factors that strongly influence the effects of climate change on the global forest sector.

Impacts of Autonomous Adaptations on the Hydrological Drought Under Climate Change Condition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oki, T.; Satoh, Y.; Pokhrel, Y. N.; KIM, H.; Yoshimura, K.

2014-12-01

Because of expected effects of climate changes on quantity and spatial distribution of available water resources, assessment of the changes in the balance between the demand and supply of water resources is critical for some regions. Historically, water deficiencies were overcome by planned water management such as dam regulation and irrigation. But only few studies have investigated the effect of anthropogenic factors on the risk of imbalance of water demand and supply under climate change conditions. Therefore, estimation of the potential deficiency in existing infrastructures under water-environment change is needed to support our society to adapt against future climate changes. This study aims to estimate the impacts of climate changes on the risk of water scarcity projected based on CMIP5 RCP scenarios and the efficiency of autonomous adaptation by anthropogenic water management, such as reservoir operation and irrigation using ground water. First, tendencies of the changes in water scarcity under climate change are estimated by an improved land surface model, which integrates natural water cycles and human activities. Second, the efficiencies of human-developed infrastructure are analyzed by comparing the naturalized and fully anthropogenic offline simulations. It was found that number of hydrological drought days will be increased and decreased in approximately 70 % and 24 % of global land, respectively, considering anthropogenic water management, however, they are approximately 82 % and 16 %, respectively, under naturalized condition without anthropogenic water management. The differences indicate how autonomous adaptation through anthropogenic water management can reduce the impacts of climate change. Also, adequate enhancement of infrastructure is necessary against expected water scarcity under climate change because such positive and negative effects of artificial water regulation show comparable impact on water scarcity risk to that of climate change in regions where human activity is significant, even if it is under the worst-case RCP8.5 scenario. More realistic assessment of the impacts of climate change on water resources and the cost estimation of how much economic investments are needed to maintain the current level of the risks of water scarcity are necessary.

Measuring and explaining eco-efficiencies of wastewater treatment plants in China: An uncertainty analysis perspective.

PubMed

Dong, Xin; Zhang, Xinyi; Zeng, Siyu

2017-04-01

In the context of sustainable development, there has been an increasing requirement for an eco-efficiency assessment of wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs). Data envelopment analysis (DEA), a technique that is widely applied for relative efficiency assessment, is used in combination with the tolerances approach to handle WWTPs' multiple inputs and outputs as well as their uncertainty. The economic cost, energy consumption, contaminant removal, and global warming effect during the treatment processes are integrated to interpret the eco-efficiency of WWTPs. A total of 736 sample plants from across China are assessed, and large sensitivities to variations in inputs and outputs are observed for most samples, with only three WWTPs identified as being stably efficient. Size of plant, overcapacity, climate type, and influent characteristics are proven to have a significant influence on both the mean efficiency and performance sensitivity of WWTPs, while no clear relationships were found between eco-efficiency and technology under the framework of uncertainty analysis. The incorporation of uncertainty quantification and environmental impact consideration has improved the liability and applicability of the assessment. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Perception of Climate Risk among Rural Farmers in Vietnam: Consistency within Households and with the Empirical Record.

PubMed

Cullen, Alison C; Anderson, C Leigh

2017-03-01

Rural farmers in Vietnamese communes perceive climate risk and potential impacts on livelihood within a complex context that may influence individual and household decisions. In a primary survey of 1,145 residents of the Thach Ha district of Ha Tinh province, we gathered data regarding perception about stability in climate, potential risks to livelihood, demographic characteristics, orientation toward risk, and interest in expanding economic activity. Temporal analysis of meteorological and economic indicator data forms an empirical basis for comparison with human perception. We ask the basic question: Are rural farmers' perceptions of climate consistent with the historical record and reproducible within households? We find that respondents do perceive climate anomalies, with some anchoring on recent extreme events as revealed by climate observational data, and further that spouses disproportionately share perceptions relative to randomly simulated pairings. To put climate-related risk perception in a larger context, we examine patterns across a range of risks to livelihood faced by farmers (livestock disease, pests, markets, health), using dimension reduction techniques. We find that our respondents distinguish among potential causes of low economic productivity, with substantial emphasis on climate-related impacts. They do not express uniform concern across risks, but rather average patterns reveal common modes and distinguish climate concern. Still, among those expressing concern about climate-related risks to livelihood we do not find an association with expressed intention to pursue changes in economic activity as a risk management response. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

Towards an integrated economic assessment of climate change impacts on agriculture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lotze-Campen, H.; Piontek, F.; Stevanovic, M.; Popp, A.; Bauer, N.; Dietrich, J.; Mueller, C.; Schmitz, C.

2012-12-01

For a detailed understanding of the effects of climate change on global agricultural production systems, it is essential to consider the variability of climate change patterns as projected by General Circulation Models (GCMs), their bio-physical impact on crops and the response in land-use patterns and markets. So far, approaches that account for the interaction of bio-physical and economic impacts are largely lacking. We present an integrative analysis by using a soft-coupled system of a biophysical impact model (LPJmL, Bondeau et al. 2007), an economically driven land use model (MAgPIE, Lotze-Campen et al. 2008) and an integrated assessment model (ReMIND-R, Leimbach et al. 2010) to study climate change impacts and economic damages in the agricultural sector. First, the dynamic global vegetation and hydrology model LPJmL is used to derive climate change impacts on crop yields for wheat, maize, soy, rice and other major crops. A range of different climate projections is used, taken from the dataset provided by the Intersectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP, www.isi-mip.org), which bias-corrected the latest CMIP5 climate data (Taylor et al. 2011). Crop yield impacts cover scenarios with and without CO2 fertilization as well as different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and different GCMs. With increasing temperature towards the end of the century yields generally decrease in tropical and subtropical regions, while they tend to benefit in higher latitudes. LPJmL results have been compared to other global crop models in the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP, www.agmip.org). Second, changes in crop yields are analysed with the spatially explicit agro-economic model MAgPIE, which covers their interaction with economic development and changes in food demand. Changes in prices as well as welfare changes of producer and consumer surplus are taken as economic indicators. Due to climate-change related reductions in crop productivity, producers in some regions face adaptation costs through either intensification or spatial expansion of agricultural production. Impacts are relatively small in the first half of the century, but intensify later. Additional adaptation options are investigated through the use of different levels of trade liberalization in the model (Schmitz et al. 2012). MAgPIE results also have been compared to other global agro-economic models in AgMIP. Third, climate-induced changes are aggregated for major world regions as the sum of producer and consumer surplus across spatial units. Different equity weighting schemes are investigated based on Frankhauser et al. (1997), in order to take spatial differences in population density and economic wealth into account. Finally, agricultural damages are implemented into the macro-economic framework of ReMIND-R. This approach of a detailed study of climate change impacts along the effect chain from bio-physical impacts to economic assessment is an important next step in the development of damage assessments with regard to long-term climate change. It will be extended in the future to other impact areas. The separate models involved have benefitted from checks for robustness in the course of AgMIP and other model intercomparison exercises.

Recovery of the local gravity field by spherical regularization wavelets approximation and its numerical implementation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shuler, Harrey Jeong

Information technology (IT) is becoming increasingly pervasive throughout society as more data is digitally processed, stored, and transferred. The infrastructure that supports IT activity is growing accordingly, and data center energy demands have increased by nearly a factor of four over the past decade. This dissertation investigates how building design and operation influence energy use and indoor air quality in data centers and provides strategies to improve both design goals simultaneously. As an initial step toward understanding data center air quality, measurements of particle concentrations were made at multiple operating northern California data centers. Ratios of measured particle concentrations in conventional data centers to the corresponding outside concentrations were significantly lower than those reported in the literature for office or residential buildings. Estimates using a material-balance model match well with empirical results, indicating that the dominant particle sources and losses---ventilation and filtration---have been characterized. Measurements taken at a data center using economizers show nearly an order of magnitude increase in particle concentration during economizer activity. However, even with the increase, the measured particle concentrations are still below concentration limits recommended in most industry standards. The research proceeds by exploring the feasibility of using economizers in data centers while simultaneously controlling particle concentrations with high-quality air filtration. Physical and chemical properties of indoor and outdoor particles were analyzed at a data center using economizers and varying levels of air filtration efficiency. Results show that when improved filtration is used in combination with an economizer, the indoor/outdoor concentration ratios for most measured particle types were similar to the measurements when using conventional filtration without economizers. An energy analysis of the data center reveals that, even during the summer months, chiller savings from economizer use greatly outweigh the increase in fan power associated with improved filtration. These findings indicate that economizer use combined with improved filtration could significantly reduce data center energy demand while providing a level of protection from particles of outdoor origin similar to that observed with conventional design. The emphasis of the dissertation then shifts to evaluate the energy benefits of economizer use in data centers under different design strategies. Economizer use with high ventilation rates is compared against an alternative, water-side economizer design that does not affect indoor particle concentrations. Building energy models are employed to estimate energy savings of both economizer designs for data centers in several climate zones in California. Results show that water-side economizers consistently provide less energy savings than air-side economizers, though the difference in savings varies by location. Model results also show that conventional limits on humidity levels in data centers can restrict the energy benefits of economizers. The modeling efforts are then extended to estimate national data center energy use. Different size data centers are modeled to represent the national variation in efficiency and operation of associated mechanical equipment. Results indicate increased energy efficiency opportunities with larger data centers and highlight the importance of temperature setpoints in maximizing economizer efficiency. A bottom-up modeling approach is used to estimate current (2008) United States data center energy use at nearly 62--70 billion kWh annually. The model indicates that more about 65--70% of this energy demand can be avoided through energy efficient IT and cooling infrastructure design, equivalent to an annual energy efficiency resource of approximately 40--50 billion kWh available at a national level. Within the context of greenhouse gas emissions, benefits can be significantly increased by incorporating site location into energy-efficient design strategies. (Abstract shortened by UMI.).

Is there a need for government interventions to adapt energy infrastructures to climate change? A German case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Groth, Markus; Cortekar, Jörg

2015-04-01

The option of adapting to climate change is becoming more and more important in climate change policy. Hence, responding to climate change now involves both mitigation to address the cause and adaptation as a response to already ongoing and expected changes. These changes also have relevance for the current and future energy sector in Germany. An energy sector that in the course of the German Energiewende also has to deal with a fundamental shift in energy supply from fossil fuel to renewable energies in the next decades. Thereby it needs to be considered that the energy sector is one critical infrastructure in the European Union that needs to be protected. Critical infrastructures can be defined as organisations or facilities of special importance for the country and its people where failure or functional impairment would lead to severe supply bottlenecks, significant disturbance of public order or other dramatic consequences. Regarding the adaptation to climate change, the main question is, whether adaptation options will be implemented voluntarily by companies or not. This will be the case, when the measure is considered a private good and is economically beneficial. If, on the contrary, the measure is considered a public good, additional incentives are needed. Based on a synthesis of the current knowledge regarding the possible impacts of climate change on the German energy sector along its value-added chain, the paper points out, that the power distribution and the grid infrastructure is consistently attributed the highest vulnerability. Direct physical impacts and damages to the transmission and distribution grids, utility poles, power transformers, and relay stations are expected due to more intense extreme weather events like storms, floods or thunderstorms. Furthermore fundaments of utility poles can be eroded and relay stations or power transformers can be flooded, which might cause short circuits etc. Besides these impacts causing damage to the physical infrastructure, there might also occur efficiency losses in electricity transmission due to very high or very low temperatures. While vulnerabilities in power generation primarily result in efficiency losses, interferences on the grid level could cause power outages with cascade effects influencing other sectors of society and economy. The paper argues that these possible impacts of a changing climate should be taken into account in the upcoming infrastructure projects in the course of the Energiewende. Therefore governmental intervention - like legal obligations or incentives by the use of economic instruments - are for example justifiable regarding measures to adapt the grid infrastructure as a critical infrastructure that needs to be protected against current and future impacts of climate change.

Interactive effects of reactive nitrogen and climate change on US water resources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baron, J.; Bernhardt, E. S.; Finlay, J. C.; Chan, F.; Nolan, B. T.; Howarth, B.; Hall, E.; Boyer, E. W.

2011-12-01

Water resources and aquatic ecosystems are increasingly strained by withdrawals for agriculture and drinking water supply, nitrogen and other pollutant inputs, and climate change. We describe current and projected effects of the interactions of reactive nitrogen (N) and climate change on water resources of the United States. As perturbations to the N cycle intensify in a warmer less predictable climate, interactions will negatively affect the services we expect of our water resources. There are also feedbacks to the climate system itself through the production of greenhouse gases. We conclude: 1. Nitrogen concentrations will increase in the nation's waters from increased N loading and higher N mineralization rates. N export from terrestrial to aquatic ecosystems exhibits a high sensitivity to climate variations. 2. Consequences range from eutrophication and acidification, which reduce natural biodiversity and harm economically valuable fisheries, to adverse impacts on human health. 3. Extreme flood events have the potential to transport N rapidly long distances downstream from its source. 4. A recent national assessment found 67% of streams derived more than 37% of their total nitrate load from base flow often derived from groundwater. Long residence times for groundwater nitrate below agricultural fields may cause benefits from proper N management practices to take decades to be realized under current and future climates. 5. Streams, wetlands, rivers, lakes, estuaries and continental shelves are hotspots for denitrification. Maintenance of N removal capacity thus a critical component of eutrophication management under changing climate and land use conditions. 6. The amount of N inputs from fertilizer and manure use, human population, and deposition is tightly coupled with hydrology to influence the rates and proportion of N emitted to the atmosphere as N2O. About 20% of global N2O emissions come from groundwater, lakes, rivers, and estuaries; stream and wetland emissions add to this value. 7. If current patterns of N and water resource management continue, nitrogen loading to inland waters is expected to increase while the nitrogen retention efficiency within aquatic ecosystems will decline as a function of nitrogen saturation of biological demand. 8. Management that reduces N loss to the nation's water will reduce environmental and economic damage, reduce the risk to human health, and prevent the production of some N2O. Preventing the loss of N to aquatic systems is likely to be most effective at its point of origin. Reducing reactive nitrogen emissions to the atmosphere, increasing N uptake efficiency of crops and greater N retention in soils, better animal management, and improved sewage treatment to remove N from urban waste waters will be increasingly important approaches for the provision of water resources and services in a warmer and highly populated world.

Climate and Southern Africa's Water-Energy-Food Nexus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Conway, D.; Osborn, T.; Dorling, S.; Ringler, C.; Lankford, B.; Dalin, C.; Thurlow, J.; Zhu, T.; Deryng, D.; Landman, W.; Archer van Garderen, E.; Krueger, T.; Lebek, K.

2014-12-01

Numerous challenges coalesce to make Southern Africa emblematic of the connections between climate and the water-energy-food nexus. Rainfall and river flows in the region show high levels of variability across a range of spatial and temporal scales. Physical and socioeconomic exposure to climate variability and change is high, for example, the contribution of electricity produced from hydroelectric sources is over 30% in Madagascar and Zimbabwe and almost 100% in the DRC, Lesotho, Malawi, and Zambia. The region's economy is closely linked with that of the rest of the African continent and climate-sensitive food products are an important item of trade. Southern Africa's population is concentrated in regions exposed to high levels of hydro-meteorological variability, and will increase rapidly over the next four decades. The capacity to manage the effects of climate variability tends, however, to be low. Moreover, with climate change annual precipitation levels, soil moisture and runoff are likely to decrease and rising temperatures will increase evaporative demand. Despite high levels of hydro-meteorological variability, the sectoral and cross-sectoral water-energy-food linkages with climate in Southern Africa have not been considered in detail. Lack of data and questionable reliability are compounded by complex dynamic relationships. We review the role of climate in Southern Africa's nexus, complemented by empirical analysis of national level data on climate, water resources, crop and energy production, and economic activity. Our aim is to examine the role of climate variability as a driver of production fluctuations in the nexus, and to improve understanding of the magnitude and temporal dimensions of their interactions. We first consider national level exposure of food, water and energy production to climate in aggregate economic terms and then examine the linkages between interannual and multi-year climate variability and economic activity, focusing on food and hydropower production. We then review the potential for connecting areas with robust seasonal climate forecasting skill with key precursors of economic output and conclude by identifying knowledge gaps in our understanding of regional and national economic linkages in the climate and water-energy-food nexus.

Assessment of water availability and demand in Lake Guiers , Senegal.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sambou, D.; Weihrauch, D.; Hellwing, V.; Diekkrüger, B.; Höllermann, B.; Gaye, A. T.

2015-12-01

Assessment of water availability and demand in Lake Guiers, SenegalWater resources are critical to economic growth and social development. In most African countries, supply of drinking water to satisfy population needs is a key issue because of population growth and climate and land use change. During the last three decades, increasing population, changing patterns of water demand, and concentration of population and economic activities in urban areas has pressurize Senegal's freshwater resources. To overcome this deficit, Senegal turned, to the exploitation of the Lake Guiers. It is the sole water reservoir which can be used extensively as a stable freshwater. Its water is use for irrigating crops and sugar refinery and as a drinking water resource for urban centres, including Dakar, the capital city of Senegal, as well as for the local population and animal herds. To ensure sustainability, a greater understanding of Lake Guiers's water resources and effective management of its use will be required. In this study we developed and quantified future water situation (water availability and demand) in Lake Guiers under scenarios of climate change and population growth until 2050, using the water management model WEAP (Water Evaluation And Planning system). The results show that the pressure on Lake Guiers's water resources will increase, leading to greater competition between agriculture and municipal demand site. Decreasing inflows due to climate change will aggravate this situation. WEAP results offer basis to assister lake Guiers water resources manager for an efficient long-term planning and management. Keywords: climate change, population growth , IWRM, Lake Guiers, Senegal

Common Pool Water Markets and their Role in Facilitating Land Use Change in Drying Climates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Teasley, R. L.; Milke, M.; Raffensperger, J. F.; Zargar, M.

2010-12-01

Concern is growing worldwide that climate change will lead to drier climates in many regions and in turn diminish water resources. To protect these limited resources, users may need to shift water use to more economically productive areas. However, changing the land use associated with water permits can be quite difficult, because water is not easily traded. Water markets have been well researched as a method for trading water between users, but these markets can often be difficult and costly requiring one-to-one trades between buyers and sellers. In contrast to a one-to-one market, a common pool market can reduce the transaction costs associated with trading water. In this research, a common pool market is applied to an example groundwater system set up in GWM2000 with ten users and various environmental constraints. The users represent three types of the largest groundwater users in the Canterbury region of New Zealand: agricultural, dairy and livestock. The response matrix from GWM2000 is used to develop constraints in the market model along with user bids. Bids are calculated from economic and water use data for Canterbury, New Zealand. Varying spatial distributions of water users by type are evaluated for the effect on the market under drying conditions. These conditions are simulated from climate change scenarios produced by the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research in New Zealand. The results demonstrate potential land use changes falls under drying conditions. As water availability falls, the price for additional water increases, particularly near environmental constraints, driving the land and water towards more efficient uses.

Socio-economic vulnerability to climate change in the central mountainous region of eastern Mexico.

PubMed

Esperón-Rodríguez, Manuel; Bonifacio-Bautista, Martín; Barradas, Víctor L

2016-03-01

Climate change effects are expected to be more severe for some segments of society than others. In Mexico, climate variability associated with climate change has important socio-economic and environmental impacts. From the central mountainous region of eastern Veracruz, Mexico, we analyzed data of total annual precipitation and mean annual temperature from 26 meteorological stations (1922-2008) and from General Circulation Models. We developed climate change scenarios based on the observed trends with projections to 2025, 2050, 2075, and 2100, finding considerable local climate changes with reductions in precipitation of over 700 mm and increases in temperature of ~9°C for the year 2100. Deforested areas located at windward were considered more vulnerable, representing potential risk for natural environments, local communities, and the main crops cultivated (sugarcane, coffee, and corn). Socio-economic vulnerability is exacerbated in areas where temperature increases and precipitation decreases.

A global water scarcity assessment under Shared Socio-economic Pathways - Part 1: Water use

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hanasaki, N.; Fujimori, S.; Yamamoto, T.; Yoshikawa, S.; Masaki, Y.; Hijioka, Y.; Kainuma, M.; Kanamori, Y.; Masui, T.; Takahashi, K.; Kanae, S.

2013-07-01

A novel global water scarcity assessment for the 21st century is presented in a two-part paper. In this first paper, water use scenarios are presented for the latest global hydrological models. The scenarios are compatible with the socio-economic scenarios of the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs), which are a part of the latest set of scenarios on global change developed by the integrated assessment, the IAV (climate change impact, adaptation, and vulnerability assessment), and the climate modeling community. The SSPs depict five global situations based on substantially different socio-economic conditions during the 21st century. Water use scenarios were developed to reflect not only quantitative socio-economic factors, such as population and electricity production, but also key qualitative concepts such as the degree of technological change and overall environmental consciousness. Each scenario consists of five factors: irrigated area, crop intensity, irrigation efficiency, and withdrawal-based potential industrial and municipal water demands. The first three factors are used to estimate the potential irrigation water demand. All factors were developed using simple models based on a literature review and analysis of historical records. The factors are grid-based at a spatial resolution of 0.5° × 0.5° and cover the whole 21st century in five-year intervals. Each factor shows wide variation among the different global situations depicted: the irrigated area in 2085 varies between 2.7 × 106 and 4.5 × 106 km2, withdrawal-based potential industrial water demand between 246 and 1714 km3 yr-1, and municipal water between 573 and 1280 km3 yr-1. The water use scenarios can be used for global water scarcity assessments that identify the regions vulnerable to water scarcity and analyze the timing and magnitude of scarcity conditions.

Materials for Sustainable Energy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crabtree, George

2009-03-01

The global dependence on fossil fuels for energy is among the greatest challenges facing our economic, social and political future. The uncertainty in the cost and supply of oil threatens the global economy and energy security, the pollution of fossil combustion threatens human health, and the emission of greenhouse gases threatens global climate. Meeting the demand for double the current global energy use in the next 50 years without damaging our economy, security, environment or climate requires finding alternative sources of energy that are clean, abundant, accessible and sustainable. The transition to greater sustainability involves tapping unused energy flows such as sunlight and wind, producing electricity without carbon emissions from clean coal and high efficiency nuclear power plants, and using energy more efficiently in solid-state lighting, fuel cells and transportation based on plug-in hybrid and electric cars. Achieving these goals requires creating materials of increasing complexity and functionality to control the transformation of energy between light, electrons and chemical bonds. Challenges and opportunities for developing the complex materials and controlling the chemical changes that enable greater sustainability will be presented.

Sharing the cost of river basin adaptation portfolios to climate change: Insights from social justice and cooperative game theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Girard, Corentin; Rinaudo, Jean-Daniel; Pulido-Velazquez, Manuel

2016-10-01

The adaptation of water resource systems to the potential impacts of climate change requires mixed portfolios of supply and demand adaptation measures. The issue is not only to select efficient, robust, and flexible adaptation portfolios but also to find equitable strategies of cost allocation among the stakeholders. Our work addresses such cost allocation problems by applying two different theoretical approaches: social justice and cooperative game theory in a real case study. First of all, a cost-effective portfolio of adaptation measures at the basin scale is selected using a least-cost optimization model. Cost allocation solutions are then defined based on economic rationality concepts from cooperative game theory (the Core). Second, interviews are conducted to characterize stakeholders' perceptions of social justice principles associated with the definition of alternatives cost allocation rules. The comparison of the cost allocation scenarios leads to contrasted insights in order to inform the decision-making process at the river basin scale and potentially reap the efficiency gains from cooperation in the design of river basin adaptation portfolios.

Implications of climate change for economic development in northern Canada: energy, resource, and transportation sectors.

PubMed

Prowse, Terry D; Furgal, Chris; Chouinard, Rebecca; Melling, Humfrey; Milburn, David; Smith, Sharon L

2009-07-01

Northern Canada is projected to experience major changes to its climate, which will have major implications for northern economic development. Some of these, such as mining and oil and gas development, have experienced rapid expansion in recent years and are likely to expand further, partly as the result of indirect effects of changing climate. This article reviews how a changing climate will affect several economic sectors including the hydroelectric, oil and gas, and mining industries as well as infrastructure and transportation, both marine and freshwater. Of particular importance to all sectors are projected changes in the cryosphere, which will create both problems and opportunities. Potential adaptation strategies that could be used to minimize the negative impacts created by a climate change are also reviewed.

Physical and economic consequences of climate change in Europe.

PubMed

Ciscar, Juan-Carlos; Iglesias, Ana; Feyen, Luc; Szabó, László; Van Regemorter, Denise; Amelung, Bas; Nicholls, Robert; Watkiss, Paul; Christensen, Ole B; Dankers, Rutger; Garrote, Luis; Goodess, Clare M; Hunt, Alistair; Moreno, Alvaro; Richards, Julie; Soria, Antonio

2011-02-15

Quantitative estimates of the economic damages of climate change usually are based on aggregate relationships linking average temperature change to loss in gross domestic product (GDP). However, there is a clear need for further detail in the regional and sectoral dimensions of impact assessments to design and prioritize adaptation strategies. New developments in regional climate modeling and physical-impact modeling in Europe allow a better exploration of those dimensions. This article quantifies the potential consequences of climate change in Europe in four market impact categories (agriculture, river floods, coastal areas, and tourism) and one nonmarket impact (human health). The methodology integrates a set of coherent, high-resolution climate change projections and physical models into an economic modeling framework. We find that if the climate of the 2080s were to occur today, the annual loss in household welfare in the European Union (EU) resulting from the four market impacts would range between 0.2-1%. If the welfare loss is assumed to be constant over time, climate change may halve the EU's annual welfare growth. Scenarios with warmer temperatures and a higher rise in sea level result in more severe economic damage. However, the results show that there are large variations across European regions. Southern Europe, the British Isles, and Central Europe North appear most sensitive to climate change. Northern Europe, on the other hand, is the only region with net economic benefits, driven mainly by the positive effects on agriculture. Coastal systems, agriculture, and river flooding are the most important of the four market impacts assessed.

Relationship of suicide rates with climate and economic variables in Europe during 2000-2012.

PubMed

Fountoulakis, Konstantinos N; Chatzikosta, Isaia; Pastiadis, Konstantinos; Zanis, Prodromos; Kawohl, Wolfram; Kerkhof, Ad J F M; Navickas, Alvydas; Höschl, Cyril; Lecic-Tosevski, Dusica; Sorel, Eliot; Rancans, Elmars; Palova, Eva; Juckel, Georg; Isacsson, Goran; Jagodic, Helena Korosec; Botezat-Antonescu, Ileana; Rybakowski, Janusz; Azorin, Jean Michel; Cookson, John; Waddington, John; Pregelj, Peter; Demyttenaere, Koen; Hranov, Luchezar G; Stevovic, Lidija Injac; Pezawas, Lucas; Adida, Marc; Figuera, Maria Luisa; Jakovljević, Miro; Vichi, Monica; Perugi, Giulio; Andreassen, Ole A; Vukovic, Olivera; Mavrogiorgou, Paraskevi; Varnik, Peeter; Dome, Peter; Winkler, Petr; Salokangas, Raimo K R; From, Tiina; Danileviciute, Vita; Gonda, Xenia; Rihmer, Zoltan; Forsman, Jonas; Grady, Anne; Hyphantis, Thomas; Dieset, Ingrid; Soendergaard, Susan; Pompili, Maurizio; Bech, Per

2016-01-01

It is well known that suicidal rates vary considerably among European countries and the reasons for this are unknown, although several theories have been proposed. The effect of economic variables has been extensively studied but not that of climate. Data from 29 European countries covering the years 2000-2012 and concerning male and female standardized suicidal rates (according to WHO), economic variables (according World Bank) and climate variables were gathered. The statistical analysis included cluster and principal component analysis and categorical regression. The derived models explained 62.4 % of the variability of male suicidal rates. Economic variables alone explained 26.9 % and climate variables 37.6 %. For females, the respective figures were 41.7, 11.5 and 28.1 %. Male suicides correlated with high unemployment rate in the frame of high growth rate and high inflation and low GDP per capita, while female suicides correlated negatively with inflation. Both male and female suicides correlated with low temperature. The current study reports that the climatic effect (cold climate) is stronger than the economic one, but both are present. It seems that in Europe suicidality follows the climate/temperature cline which interestingly is not from south to north but from south to north-east. This raises concerns that climate change could lead to an increase in suicide rates. The current study is essentially the first successful attempt to explain the differences across countries in Europe; however, it is an observational analysis based on aggregate data and thus there is a lack of control for confounders.

Physical and economic consequences of climate change in Europe

PubMed Central

Ciscar, Juan-Carlos; Iglesias, Ana; Feyen, Luc; Szabó, László; Van Regemorter, Denise; Amelung, Bas; Nicholls, Robert; Watkiss, Paul; Christensen, Ole B.; Dankers, Rutger; Garrote, Luis; Goodess, Clare M.; Hunt, Alistair; Moreno, Alvaro; Richards, Julie; Soria, Antonio

2011-01-01

Quantitative estimates of the economic damages of climate change usually are based on aggregate relationships linking average temperature change to loss in gross domestic product (GDP). However, there is a clear need for further detail in the regional and sectoral dimensions of impact assessments to design and prioritize adaptation strategies. New developments in regional climate modeling and physical-impact modeling in Europe allow a better exploration of those dimensions. This article quantifies the potential consequences of climate change in Europe in four market impact categories (agriculture, river floods, coastal areas, and tourism) and one nonmarket impact (human health). The methodology integrates a set of coherent, high-resolution climate change projections and physical models into an economic modeling framework. We find that if the climate of the 2080s were to occur today, the annual loss in household welfare in the European Union (EU) resulting from the four market impacts would range between 0.2–1%. If the welfare loss is assumed to be constant over time, climate change may halve the EU's annual welfare growth. Scenarios with warmer temperatures and a higher rise in sea level result in more severe economic damage. However, the results show that there are large variations across European regions. Southern Europe, the British Isles, and Central Europe North appear most sensitive to climate change. Northern Europe, on the other hand, is the only region with net economic benefits, driven mainly by the positive effects on agriculture. Coastal systems, agriculture, and river flooding are the most important of the four market impacts assessed. PMID:21282624

The Impact of Climate Change on the United States Economy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mendelsohn, Robert; Neumann, James E.

2004-08-01

Understanding the impacts of climate change on economic behaviour is an important aspect of deciding when to take policy actions to prevent or mitigate its consequences. This book applies advanced new economics methodologies to assess impacts on potentially vulnerable aspects of the US economy: agriculture, timber, coastal resources, energy expenditure, fishing, outdoor recreation. It is intended to provide improved understanding of key issues raised in the recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports. It concludes that some climate change may produce economic gains in the agriculture and forestry sectors, whereas energy, coastal structures, and water sectors may be harmed. The book will serve as an important reference for the scientific, economic, and policy community, and will also be of interest to natural resource/environmental economists as an example of economic valuation techniques. The volume will clearly be of main importance to researchers and policymakers in the US, but will also be influential as a model for assessment of impacts on economies worldwide.

On fair, effective and efficient REDD mechanism design

PubMed Central

2009-01-01

The issues surrounding 'Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation' (REDD) have become a major component of continuing negotiations under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). This paper aims to address two key requirements of any potential REDD mechanism: first, the generation of measurable, reportable and verifiable (MRV) REDD credits; and secondly, the sustainable and efficient provision of emission reductions under a robust financing regime. To ensure the supply of MRV credits, we advocate the establishment of an 'International Emission Reference Scenario Coordination Centre' (IERSCC). The IERSCC would act as a global clearing house for harmonized data to be used in implementing reference level methodologies. It would be tasked with the collection, reporting and subsequent processing of earth observation, deforestation- and degradation driver information in a globally consistent manner. The IERSCC would also assist, coordinate and supervise the computation of national reference scenarios according to rules negotiated under the UNFCCC. To overcome the threats of "market flooding" on the one hand and insufficient economic incentives for REDD on the other hand, we suggest an 'International Investment Reserve' (IIR) as REDD financing framework. In order to distribute the resources of the IIR we propose adopting an auctioning mechanism. Auctioning not only reveals the true emission reduction costs, but might also allow for incentivizing the protection of biodiversity and socio-economic values. The introduced concepts will be vital to ensure robustness, environmental integrity and economic efficiency of the future REDD mechanism. PMID:19943927

Potential effects of climate change on the growth of fishes from different thermal guilds in Lakes Michigan and Huron

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kao, Yu-Chun; Madenjian, Charles P.; Bunnell, David B.; Lofgren, Brent M.; Perroud, Marjorie

2015-01-01

We used a bioenergetics modeling approach to investigate potential effects of climate change on the growth of two economically important native fishes: yellow perch (Perca flavescens), a cool-water fish, and lake whitefish (Coregonus clupeaformis), a cold-water fish, in deep and oligotrophic Lakes Michigan and Huron. For assessing potential changes in fish growth, we contrasted simulated fish growth in the projected future climate regime during the period 2043-2070 under different prey availability scenarios with the simulated growth during the baseline (historical reference) period 1964-1993. Results showed that effects of climate change on the growth of these two fishes are jointly controlled by behavioral thermoregulation and prey availability. With the ability of behavioral thermoregulation, temperatures experienced by yellow perch in the projected future climate regime increased more than those experienced by lake whitefish. Thus simulated future growth decreased more for yellow perch than for lake whitefish under scenarios where prey availability remains constant into the future. Under high prey availability scenarios, simulated future growth of these two fishes both increased but yellow perch could not maintain the baseline efficiency of converting prey consumption into body weight. We contended that thermal guild should not be the only factor used to predict effects of climate change on the growth of a fish, and that ecosystem responses to climate change should be also taken into account.

A socio-hydrologic model of coupled water-agriculture dynamics with emphasis on farm size.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brugger, D. R.; Maneta, M. P.

2015-12-01

Agricultural land cover dynamics in the U.S. are dominated by two trends: 1) total agricultural land is decreasing and 2) average farm size is increasing. These trends have important implications for the future of water resources because 1) growing more food on less land is due in large part to increased groundwater withdrawal and 2) larger farms can better afford both more efficient irrigation and more groundwater access. However, these large-scale trends are due to individual farm operators responding to many factors including climate, economics, and policy. It is therefore difficult to incorporate the trends into watershed-scale hydrologic models. Traditional scenario-based approaches are valuable for many applications, but there is typically no feedback between the hydrologic model and the agricultural dynamics and so limited insight is gained into the how agriculture co-evolves with water resources. We present a socio-hydrologic model that couples simplified hydrologic and agricultural economic dynamics, accounting for many factors that depend on farm size such as irrigation efficiency and returns to scale. We introduce an "economic memory" (EM) state variable that is driven by agricultural revenue and affects whether farms are sold when land market values exceed expected returns from agriculture. The model uses a Generalized Mixture Model of Gaussians to approximate the distribution of farm sizes in a study area, effectively lumping farms into "small," "medium," and "large" groups that have independent parameterizations. We apply the model in a semi-arid watershed in the upper Columbia River Basin, calibrating to data on streamflow, total agricultural land cover, and farm size distribution. The model is used to investigate the sensitivity of the coupled system to various hydrologic and economic scenarios such as increasing market value of land, reduced surface water availability, and increased irrigation efficiency in small farms.

Climate Change and Costs: Investigating Students' Reasoning on Nature and Economic Development

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sternang, Li; Lundholm, Cecilia

2012-01-01

The tensions between environmental protection and economic growth are critical to future well-being, and it is therefore important to understand how young people conceptualize these tensions. The aim of the present study is to explore students' solutions to the dilemma of economic development and mitigating climate change, with regard to societal…

Drainage Basins as Large-Scale Field Laboratories of Change: Hydro-biogeochemical- economic Model Study Support for Water Pollution and Eutrophication Management Under Uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Destouni, G.

2008-12-01

Excess nutrient and pollutant releases from various point and diffuse sources at and below the land surface, associated with land use, industry and households, pose serious eutrophication and pollution risks to inland and coastal water ecosystems worldwide. These risks must be assessed, for instance according to the EU Water Framework Directive (WFD). The WFD demands economically efficient, basin-scale water management for achieving and maintaining good physico-chemical and ecological status in all the inland and coastal waters of EU member states. This paper synthesizes a series of hydro-biogeochemical and linked economic efficiency studies of basin-scale waterborne nutrient and pollutant flows, the development over the last decades up to the current levels of these flows, the main monitoring and modelling uncertainties associated with their quantification, and the effectiveness and economic efficiency of different possible abatement strategies for abating them in order to meet WFD requirements and other environmental goals on local, national and international levels under climate and other regional change. The studies include different Swedish and Baltic Sea drainage basins. Main findings include quantification of near-coastal monitoring gaps and long-term nutrient and pollutant memory in the subsurface (soil-groundwater-sediment) water systems of drainage basins. The former may significantly mask nutrient and pollutant loads to the sea while the latter may continue to uphold large loads to inland and coastal waters long time after source mitigation. A methodology is presented for finding a rational trade-off between the two resource-demanding options to reduce, or accept and explicitly account for the uncertainties implied by these monitoring gaps and long-term nutrient-pollution memories and time lags, and other knowledge, data and model uncertainties that limit the effectiveness and efficiency of water pollution and eutrophication management.

Economic assessment of climate adaptation options for urban drainage design in Odense, Denmark.

PubMed

Zhou, Q; Halsnæs, K; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, K

2012-01-01

Climate change is likely to influence the water cycle by changing the precipitation patterns, in some cases leading to increased occurrences of precipitation extremes. Urban landscapes are vulnerable to such changes due to the concentrated population and socio-economic values in cities. Feasible adaptation requires better flood risk quantification and assessment of appropriate adaptation actions in term of costs and benefits. This paper presents an economic assessment of three prevailing climate adaptation options for urban drainage design in a Danish case study, Odense. A risk-based evaluation framework is used to give detailed insights of the physical and economic feasibilities of each option. Estimation of marginal benefits of adaptation options are carried out through a step-by-step cost-benefit analysis. The results are aimed at providing important information for decision making on how best to adapt to urban pluvial flooding due to climate impacts in cities.

The US economic impacts of climate change and the costs of inaction : a review and assessment by the Center for Integrative Environmental Research (CIER) at the University of Maryland

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2007-10-01

This report presents a review of economic studies for the United States and relates them to predicted impacts of climate change. The summary findings are organized by region and identify the key sectors likely affected by climate change, the main imp...

The Impact of School Climate on the Achievement of Elementary School Students Who Are Economically Disadvantaged a Quantitative Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Smallwood, Gina W.

2014-01-01

The purpose of this research was to explore the impact of school climate on the achievement of third and fourth grade students who are economically disadvantaged in Mathematics and Reading/Language Arts. Students' perception of school climate was studied using the "Tripod Survey" variables of a caring, captivating, and academically…

Mitigation, adaptation, and climate change: results from recent research on US timber markets.

Treesearch

Brent Sohngen; Ralph Alig

2000-01-01

This paper reviews recent studies that have addressed how US timber markets may adapt to climate change, and how US forests could be used to mitigate potential climate change. The studies are discussed in light of the ecological and economic assumptions used to estimate adaptation. Estimates of both economic impacts and carbon sequestration costs depend heavily on the...

Climate impacts on agricultural land use in the USA: the role of socio-economic scenarios

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mu, Jianhong E.; Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Abatzoglou, John T.; Antle, John M.

2017-01-01

We examine the impacts of climate on net returns from crop and livestock production and the resulting impact on land-use change across the contiguous USA. We first estimate an econometric model to project effects of weather fluctuations on crop and livestock net returns and then use a semi-reduced form land-use share model to study agricultural land-use changes under future climate and socio-economic scenarios. Estimation results show that crop net returns are more sensitive to thermal and less sensitive to moisture variability than livestock net returns; other agricultural land uses substitute cropland use when 30-year averaged degree-days or precipitation are not beneficial for crop production. Under future climate and socio-economic scenarios, we project that crop and livestock net returns are both increasing, but with crop net returns increasing at a higher rate; cropland increases with declines of marginal and pastureland by the end of the twenty-first century. Projections also show that impacts of future climate on agricultural land uses are substantially different and a larger variation of land-use change is evident when socio-economic scenarios are incorporated into the climate impact analysis.

Enhanced economic connectivity to foster heat stress-related losses.

PubMed

Wenz, Leonie; Levermann, Anders

2016-06-01

Assessing global impacts of unexpected meteorological events in an increasingly connected world economy is important for estimating the costs of climate change. We show that since the beginning of the 21st century, the structural evolution of the global supply network has been such as to foster an increase of climate-related production losses. We compute first- and higher-order losses from heat stress-induced reductions in productivity under changing economic and climatic conditions between 1991 and 2011. Since 2001, the economic connectivity has augmented in such a way as to facilitate the cascading of production loss. The influence of this structural change has dominated over the effect of the comparably weak climate warming during this decade. Thus, particularly under future warming, the intensification of international trade has the potential to amplify climate losses if no adaptation measures are taken.

Enhanced economic connectivity to foster heat stress–related losses

PubMed Central

Wenz, Leonie; Levermann, Anders

2016-01-01

Assessing global impacts of unexpected meteorological events in an increasingly connected world economy is important for estimating the costs of climate change. We show that since the beginning of the 21st century, the structural evolution of the global supply network has been such as to foster an increase of climate-related production losses. We compute first- and higher-order losses from heat stress–induced reductions in productivity under changing economic and climatic conditions between 1991 and 2011. Since 2001, the economic connectivity has augmented in such a way as to facilitate the cascading of production loss. The influence of this structural change has dominated over the effect of the comparably weak climate warming during this decade. Thus, particularly under future warming, the intensification of international trade has the potential to amplify climate losses if no adaptation measures are taken. PMID:27386555

Regional Approaches to Climate Change for Inland Pacific Northwest Cereal Production Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eigenbrode, S. D.; Abatzoglou, J. T.; Burke, I. C.; Capalbo, S.; Gessler, P.; Huggins, D. R.; Johnson-Maynard, J.; Kruger, C.; Lamb, B. K.; Machado, S.; Mote, P.; Painter, K.; Pan, W.; Petrie, S.; Paulitz, T. C.; Stockle, C.; Walden, V. P.; Wulfhorst, J. D.; Wolf, K. J.

2011-12-01

The long-term environmental and economic sustainability of agriculture in the Inland Pacific Northwest (northern Idaho, north central Oregon, and eastern Washington) depends upon improving agricultural management, technology, and policy to enable adaptation to climate change and to help realize agriculture's potential to contribute to climate change mitigation. To address this challenge, three land-grant institutions (Oregon State University, the University of Idaho and Washington State University) (OSU, UI, WSU) and USDA Agricultural Research Service (ARS) units are partners in a collaborative project - Regional Approaches to Climate Change for Pacific Northwest Agriculture (REACCH-PNA). The overarching goal of REACCH is to enhance the sustainability of Inland Pacific Northwest (IPNW) cereal production systems under ongoing and projected climate change while contributing to climate change mitigation. Supporting goals include: - Develop and implement sustainable agricultural practices for cereal production within existing and projected agroecological zones throughout the region as climate changes, - Contribute to climate change mitigation through improved fertilizer, fuel, and pesticide use efficiency, increased sequestration of soil carbon, and reduced greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions consistent with the 2030 targets set by the USDA National Institute for Food and Agriculture (NIFA), - Work closely with stakeholders and policymakers to promote science-based agricultural approaches to climate change adaptation and mitigation, - Increase the number of scientists, educators, and extension professionals with the skills and knowledge to address climate change and its interactions with agriculture. In this poster, we provide an overview of the specific goals of this project and activities that are underway since its inception in spring of 2011.

Oil and Water: Essays on the Economics of Natural Resource Usage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stolper, Samuel

As the developing world continues its pace of rapid growth and the threat of climate change intensifies, the economics of natural resource usage become increasingly important. From the perspective of both economic efficiency and distributional equity, effective policy design is correspondingly urgent. Market failures such as imperfect competition, externalities, and incomplete information plague resource markets everywhere; and both initial endowments and policy interventions often have regressive incidence. I shed light on some of these issues by studying the economics of natural resource usage in two separate empirical contexts. The first is the market for automotive fuel in Spain; I measure pass-through--the degree to which retail fuel stations "pass through" diesel taxes to final consumer prices--and use it assess the distributional impacts of energy policy. The second is the Ganga River Basin of India; I estimate the impacts of environmental regulation on river water quality and infant mortality. In both contexts, I utilize estimates of policy impacts to examine the underlying mechanisms by which affected consumers and suppliers of natural resources make decisions.

Environmental and economic performance of plasma gasification in Enhanced Landfill Mining.

PubMed

Danthurebandara, Maheshi; Van Passel, Steven; Vanderreydt, Ive; Van Acker, Karel

2015-11-01

This paper describes an environmental and economic assessment of plasma gasification, one of the viable candidates for the valorisation of refuse derived fuel from Enhanced Landfill Mining. The study is based on life cycle assessment and life cycle costing. Plasma gasification is benchmarked against conventional incineration, and the study indicates that the process could have significant impact on climate change, human toxicity, particulate matter formation, metal depletion and fossil depletion. Flue gas emission, oxygen usage and disposal of residues (plasmastone) are the major environmental burdens, while electricity production and metal recovery represent the major benefits. Reductions in burdens and improvements in benefits are found when the plasmastone is valorised in building materials instead of landfilling. The study indicates that the overall environmental performance of plasma gasification is better than incineration. The study confirms a trade-off between the environmental and economic performance of the discussed scenarios. Net electrical efficiency and investment cost of the plasma gasification process and the selling price of the products are the major economic drivers. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Increasing severity of damage caused by floods in the Spanish Mediterranean coast (1960-2014), climate change or vulnerability?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perez, Alfredo; Gil, Salvador; Lopez, Francisco; Barriendos, Mariano

2016-04-01

In recent decades, there has been an increase in physical and economic losses (WMO, CRED and UCL, 2014) that raises serious concerns in society. Climate change projections may explain the rise in flood losses; however, these shouldn't be considered yet (Bouwer, 2011). According to IPCC (2014), there is low confidence in anthropogenic climate change affecting the frequency and magnitude of fluvial floods on a global scale. In other words, this increase in flood events is not completely related to the higher frequency of heavy rainfall. To illustrate the aforementioned, a spatial example can be seen in the study area. In the Spanish Mediterranean coast, we see an increase in economic losses within the last 50 years due to flood events (Gil et al., 2014). It seems that the socio-economic growth and the rise of housing construction (Gaja, 2008) have led to an increase in vulnerability and exposure which are mainly responsible for those losses and the increase in severity of flood events (Pérez et al., 2015). Furthermore, this situation will probably become more precarious if some climate forecasts are met [IPCC, 2014; AEMET, 2015], and if the economic model fails to adopt efficient adaptive measures. Therefore, it is interesting to focus attention on social factors either within the present or future scenario in order to minimise the potential consequences and improve the adaptation. The main objective of this work focuses on the study of the evolution of the severity of the floods in the Spanish Mediterranean coast for the period (1960-2015). To do that, a statistical analysis of the data base [Gil et al., 2014; extended to the entire Spanish Mediterranean coast (MEDIFLOOD)] and a multiscale mapping (local, provincial and regional level) of the frequency of these events will take place in order to make comparisons and show spatiotemporal patterns according to the severity events evolution. Preliminary results show some interesting statistically significant relationships between severity and the increase of population and buildings mentioned above. Bibliography: AEMET (Agencia Estatal de Meteorología) (2015). Proyecciones Climáticas para el siglo XXI en España. www.aemet.es/es/serviciosclimaticos/cambio_climat Bouwer L.M. (2011). Have disaster losses increased due to anthropogenic climate change? Bull Am Meteorol Soc, 92. Gaja F. (2008). El 'tsunami urbanizador' en el litoral mediterráneo. El ciclo de hiperproducción inmobiliaria 1996-2006. Scripta Nova, 12. Gil S., Pérez A. & Barriendos M. (2014). Increasing vulnerability to flooding in the southern spanish mediterranean coast (1960-2013). In: Hydrological extreme events in historic and prehistoric times. Bonn (Germany). IPCC. (2014) Synthesis report. Contribution of working groups I, II and III to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Core Writing Team, R.K. Pachauri & L.A. Meyer, eds. Geneva, Switzerland. Pérez-Morales, A., Gil-Guirado, S., & Olcina-Cantos, J. (2015). Housing bubbles and the increase of flood exposure. Failures in flood risk management on the Spanish south-eastern coast (1975-2013). Journal of Flood Risk Management. WMO, CRED and UCL (2014). Atlas of mortality and economic losses from weather, climate and water extremes 1970-2012. Geneva, Switzerland.

Improving the global efficiency in small hydropower practice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Razurel, P.; Gorla, L.; Crouzy, B.; Perona, P.

2015-12-01

The global increase in energy production from renewable sources has seen river exploitation for small hydropower plants to also grow considerably in the last decade. River intakes used to divert water from the main course to the power plant are at the base of such practice. A key issue concern with finding innovative concepts to both design and manage such structures in order to improve classic operational rules. Among these, the Minimal Flow Release (MFR) concept has long been used in spite of its environmental inconsistency.In this work, we show that the economical and ecological efficiency of diverting water for energy production in small hydropower plants can be improved towards sustainability by engineering a novel class of flow-redistribution policies. We use the mathematical form of the Fermi-Dirac statistical distribution to define non-proportional dynamic flow-redistribution rules, which broadens the spectrum of dynamic flow releases based on proportional redistribution. The theoretical background as well as the economic interpretation is presented and applied to three case studies in order to systematically test the global performance of such policies. Out of numerical simulations, a Pareto frontier emerges in the economic vs environmental efficiency plot, which show that non-proportional distribution policies improve both efficiencies with respect to those obtained from some traditional MFR and proportional policies. This picture is shown also for long term climatic scenarios affecting water availability and the natural flow regime.In a time of intense and increasing exploitation close to resource saturation, preserving natural river reaches requires to abandon inappropriate static release policies in favor of non-proportional ones towards a sustainable use of the water resource.

Informing climate-related decisions in complex river basins: A comparative assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pulwarty, R. S.; Bark, R. H.; Maia, R.; Udall, B.

2010-12-01

Integrated water resources management provides an important governance framework to achieve climate-related adaptation measures across socio-economic, environmental and administrative systems. Adaptation includes technical changes that improve water use efficiency, early warning, demand management (e.g. through metering and pricing), and institutional changes that improve the tradability of water rights. Supply-side strategies generally involve increases in storage capacity, abstraction from watercourses, and water transfers. Incentives for improving water-use efficiency, hold considerable promise for water savings and the reallocation of water to highly valued uses. However, conflicts exist between processes and goals of water management and governance. These militate against the effectiveness of using scientific information to meet short-term needs in the context of reducing longer-term vulnerabilities such as for “increasing water supply while meeting environmental needs.” A complete analysis of the effects of climate change on human water uses would consider cross-sector interactions, including the impacts of transfers of the use of water from one sector to another. In this presentation we will review the challenges and lessons provided in water resources management in the context of a changing climate. Lessons are drawn from watersheds around the world including the Colorado, Columbia, Murray-Darling, Guadiana and others. We explore how watershed managers and researchers are attempting to address the risks associated with climatic change and potential surprises. In spite of numerous climate impacts studies the management of the cumulative impacts of extremes (droughts, floods etc.) remains reactive and crisis-driven. Most recommendations stay within the applied sciences realm of technological interventions and supply driven approaches. Clearly more is needed to inform an integrated watershed management approaches in which adaptive management functions as an operational tool for learning. The barriers to implementing adaptation measures include the inability of some natural systems to adapt at the rate of combined demographic pressures and climate, incomplete understanding and quantifying of water demands, and impediments to the flow of timely and reliable knowledge and information relevant for decision makers. Mechanisms to expand this range of choice include: Anticipatory coordination within development plans (e.g. adaptive management within integrated watershed and coastal zone plans). Developing usable climate risk management triggers for early warning of potential conflicts in agriculture, water, energy, health, environment , and coastal zones, including a mixed portfolio of past data and scenario-based approaches Developing and employing water efficient technologies. Actively engaging communities and states in mainstreaming climate information such as in the development of scenarios that link climate and development goals Future needs include exploration of alternate integration models and overlying policy structures that could, together, facilitate and sustain shared learning as climate varies and change

Energy efficiency in the U.S. residential sector: An engineering and economic assessment of opportunities for large energy savings and greenhouse gas emissions reductions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lima de Azevedo, Ines Margarida

Energy efficiency and conservation is a very promising part of a portfolio of the needed strategies to mitigate climate change. Several technologies and energy efficiency measures in the residential sector offer potential for large energy savings. However, while energy efficiency options are currently considered as a means of reducing carbon emissions, there is still large uncertainty about the effect of such measures on overall carbon savings. The first part of this thesis provides a national assessment of the energy efficiency potential in the residential sector under several different scenarios, which include the perspectives of different economic agents (consumers, utilities, ESCOs, and a society). The scenarios also include maximizing energy, electricity or carbon dioxide savings. The second part of this thesis deals with a detailed assessment of the potential for white-light LEDs for energy and carbon dioxide savings in the U.S. commercial and residential sectors. Solid-state lighting shows great promise as a source of efficient, affordable, color-balanced white light. Indeed, assuming market discount rates, the present work demonstrates that white solid-state lighting already has a lower levelized annual cost (LAC) than incandescent bulbs and that it will be lower than that of the most efficient fluorescent bulbs by the end of this decade. However, a large literature indicates that households do not make their decisions in terms of simple expected economic value. The present analysis shows that incorporating the findings from literature on high implicit discount rates from households when performing decisions towards efficient technologies delays the adoption of white LEDs by a couple of years. After a review of the technology, the present work compares the electricity consumption, carbon emissions and cost-effectiveness of current lighting technologies, when accounting for expected performance evolution through 2015. Simulations of lighting electricity consumption and implicit greenhouse gases emissions for the U.S. residential and commercial sectors through 2015 under different policy scenarios (voluntary solid-state lighting adoption, implementation of lighting standards in new construction and rebate programs or equivalent subsidies) are also included.

Is There a Statistical Relationship between Economic Crises and Changes in Government Health Expenditure Growth? An Analysis of Twenty-Four European Countries

PubMed Central

Cylus, Jonathan; Mladovsky, Philipa; McKee, Martin

2012-01-01

Objective To identify whether, by what means, and the extent to which historically, government health care expenditure growth in Europe has changed following economic crises. Data Sources Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development Health Data 2011. Study Design Cross-country fixed effects multiple regression analysis is used to determine whether statutory health care expenditure growth in the year after economic crises differs from that which would otherwise be predicted by general economic trends. Better understanding of the mechanisms involved is achieved by distinguishing between policy responses which lead to cost-shifting and all others. Findings In the year after an economic downturn, public health care expenditure grows more slowly than would have been expected given the longer term economic climate. Cost-shifting and other policy responses are both associated with these slowdowns. However, while changes in tax-derived expenditure are associated with both cost-shifting and other policy responses following a crisis, changes in expenditure derived from social insurance have been associated only with changes in cost-shifting. Conclusions Disproportionate cuts to the health sector, as well as reliance on cost-shifting to slow growth in health care expenditure, serve as a warning in terms of potentially negative effects on equity, efficiency, and quality of health services and, potentially, health outcomes following economic crises. PMID:22670771

Is there a statistical relationship between economic crises and changes in government health expenditure growth? an analysis of twenty-four European countries.

PubMed

Cylus, Jonathan; Mladovsky, Philipa; McKee, Martin

2012-12-01

To identify whether, by what means, and the extent to which historically, government health care expenditure growth in Europe has changed following economic crises. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development Health Data 2011. Cross-country fixed effects multiple regression analysis is used to determine whether statutory health care expenditure growth in the year after economic crises differs from that which would otherwise be predicted by general economic trends. Better understanding of the mechanisms involved is achieved by distinguishing between policy responses which lead to cost-shifting and all others. In the year after an economic downturn, public health care expenditure grows more slowly than would have been expected given the longer term economic climate. Cost-shifting and other policy responses are both associated with these slowdowns. However, while changes in tax-derived expenditure are associated with both cost-shifting and other policy responses following a crisis, changes in expenditure derived from social insurance have been associated only with changes in cost-shifting. Disproportionate cuts to the health sector, as well as reliance on cost-shifting to slow growth in health care expenditure, serve as a warning in terms of potentially negative effects on equity, efficiency, and quality of health services and, potentially, health outcomes following economic crises. © Health Research and Educational Trust.

Adding insult to injury

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Friebele, Elaine

New predictions and observations suggest that global warming will exact the highest costs on developing countries. A recent economic analysis of global climate change indicates that developed countries, the primary emitters of carbon dioxide, would benefit by $82 billion per year from a 2°C increase in global mean temperature, while underdeveloped countries would lose $40 billion per year.For the economic analysis, global climate predictions were combined with economic data (for agriculture, forestry, coastal resources, energy, and tourism), but natural climate variability, including frosts, droughts, or severe thunderstorms, was not included. Countries predicted to suffer the greatest economic losses from global warming are island nations, said Michael Schlesinger, a University of Illinois atmospheric scientist who performed the economic analysis with colleagues from Yale University and Middlebury College. “These countries have long coast lines, sensitive tourism industries, and small, undeveloped economies.”

Catastrophic fat tails and non-smooth damage functions-fire economics and climate change adaptation for public policy

Treesearch

Adriana Keeting; John Handmer

2013-01-01

South-eastern Australia is one of the most fire prone environments on earth. Devastating fires in February 2009 appear to have been off the charts climatically and economically, they led to a new category of fire danger aptly called 'catastrophic'. Almost all wildfire losses have been associated with these extreme conditions and climate change will see an...

Global energy demand to 2060

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Starr, C.

The projection of global energy demand to the year 2060 is of particular interest because of its relevance to the current greenhouse concerns. The long-term growth of global energy demand in the time scale of climatic change has received relatively little attention in the public discussion of national policy alternatives. The sociological, political, and economic issues have rarely been mentioned in this context. This study emphasizes that the two major driving forces are global population growth and economic growth (gross national product per capita), as would be expected. The modest annual increases assumed in this study result in a yearmore » 2060 annual energy use of >4 times the total global current use (year 1986) if present trends continue, and >2 times with extreme efficiency improvements in energy use. Even assuming a zero per capita growth for energy and economics, the population increase by the year 2060 results in a 1.5 times increase in total annual energy use.« less

The effect of pricing level to the loss of welfare costs (case study: Indonesia region II water company)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

K, B. Rosalina E. W.; Gravitiani, E.; Raharjo, M.; Mulyaningsih, T.

2018-03-01

Climate change makes the water balance composition being unstable, both quality and quantity. As a company which responsible for water management, Regional Drinking Water Company (abbreviated as PDAM) is often unable to solve the problem. Welfare costs are indicators to evaluate the economic efficiency. This study aims to calculate the welfare cost of the people lost due to the price determination of PDAM Indonesia in region II with deadweight loss (DWL) approach, so it can provide information to pricing regulator, pricing decision makers and for coIDRorate management. DWL is a loss of economic efficiency that can occur when equilibrium for a good or a service is not achieved, caused by monopoly pricing of artificial scarcity, an externality, a tax or subsidy, or a binding price ceiling or price floor such as a minimum wage. Results showed that the pricing rules set by PDAM yielded different DWL, depending on margin set by the company DWL PDAM ranges between IDR 260,485.66/M3 to IDR 127,486,709.86/M3 which is actually shared to improve the welfare of customers, other communities, and PDAM itself. Data analysis used PDAM performance in 2015 that have not Good CoIDRorate Governance Management and Efficiency.

Demographic aspects of climate change mitigation and adaptation.

PubMed

Lutz, Wolfgang; Striessnig, Erich

2015-01-01

This paper addresses the contribution of changes in population size and structures to greenhouse gas emissions and to the capacity to adapt to climate change. The paper goes beyond the conventional focus on the changing composition by age and sex. It does so by addressing explicitly the changing composition of the population by level of educational attainment, taking into account new evidence about the effect of educational attainment in reducing significantly the vulnerability of populations to climatic challenges. This evidence, which has inspired a new generation of socio-economic climate change scenarios, is summarized. While the earlier IPCC-SRES (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change-Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) scenarios only included alternative trajectories for total population size (treating population essentially as a scaling parameter), the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) in the new scenarios were designed to capture the socio-economic challenges to climate change mitigation and adaptation, and include full age, sex, and education details for all countries.

Economic mitigation challenges: how further delay closes the door for achieving climate targets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luderer, Gunnar; Pietzcker, Robert C.; Bertram, Christoph; Kriegler, Elmar; Meinshausen, Malte; Edenhofer, Ottmar

2013-09-01

While the international community aims to limit global warming to below 2 ° C to prevent dangerous climate change, little progress has been made towards a global climate agreement to implement the emissions reductions required to reach this target. We use an integrated energy-economy-climate modeling system to examine how a further delay of cooperative action and technology availability affect climate mitigation challenges. With comprehensive emissions reductions starting after 2015 and full technology availability we estimate that maximum 21st century warming may still be limited below 2 ° C with a likely probability and at moderate economic impacts. Achievable temperature targets rise by up to ˜0.4 ° C if the implementation of comprehensive climate policies is delayed by another 15 years, chiefly because of transitional economic impacts. If carbon capture and storage (CCS) is unavailable, the lower limit of achievable targets rises by up to ˜0.3 ° C. Our results show that progress in international climate negotiations within this decade is imperative to keep the 2 ° C target within reach.

The Costs of Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Jason

2018-03-01

This research paper talks about the economic costs of climate change, as well as the costs involved in responding to climate change with alternative fuels. This paper seeks to show that climate change, although seemingly costly in the short run, will both save future generations trillions of dollars and serve as a good economic opportunity. Scientists have long argued that the fate of humanity depends on a shift towards renewable energy. However, this paper will make clear that there is also an economic struggle. By embracing alternative fuels, we will not only lessen the danger and the frequency of these natural disasters but also strengthen the world’s financial state. Although a common argument against responding to climate change is that it is too expensive to make the switch, this research shows that in the future, it will save millions of lives and trillions of dollars. The only question left for policymakers is whether they will grasp this energy source shift.

Assessing air quality and climate impacts of future ground freight choice in United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, L.; Bond, T. C.; Smith, S.; Lee, B.; Ouyang, Y.; Hwang, T.; Barkan, C.; Lee, S.; Daenzer, K.

2013-12-01

The demand for freight transportation has continued to increase due to the growth of domestic and international trade. Emissions from ground freight (truck and railways) account for around 7% of the greenhouse gas emissions, 4% of the primary particulate matter emission and 25% of the NOx emissions in the U.S. Freight railways are generally more fuel efficient than trucks and cause less congestion. Freight demand and emissions are affected by many factors, including economic activity, the spatial distribution of demand, freight modal choice and routing decision, and the technology used in each modal type. This work links these four critical aspects of freight emission system to project the spatial distribution of emissions and pollutant concentration from ground freight transport in the U.S. between 2010 and 2050. Macroeconomic scenarios are used to forecast economic activities. Future spatial structure of employment and commodity demand in major metropolitan areas are estimated using spatial models and a shift-share model, respectively. Freight flow concentration and congestion patterns in inter-regional transportation networks are predicted from a four-step freight demand forecasting model. An asymptotic vehicle routing model is also developed to estimate delivery ton-miles for intra-regional freight shipment in metropolitan areas. Projected freight activities are then converted into impacts on air quality and climate. CO2 emissions are determined using a simple model of freight activity and fuel efficiency, and compared with the projected CO2 emissions from the Second Generation Model. Emissions of air pollutants including PM, NOx and CO are calculated with a vehicle fleet model SPEW-Trend, which incorporates the dynamic change of technologies. Emissions are projected under three economic scenarios to represent different plausible futures. Pollutant concentrations are then estimated using tagged chemical tracers in an atmospheric model with the emissions serving as input.

Tackling air pollution and extreme climate changes in China: Implementing the Paris climate change agreement.

PubMed

Tambo, Ernest; Duo-Quan, Wang; Zhou, Xiao-Nong

2016-10-01

China still depends on coal for more than 60% of its power despite big investments in the process of shifting to nuclear, solar and wind power renewable energy resources alignment with Paris climate change agreement (Paris CCA). Chinese government through the Communist Party Central Committee (CPCC) ascribes great importance and commitment to Paris CCA legacy and history landmark implementation at all levels. As the world's biggest carbon dioxide emitter, China has embarked on "SMART" pollution and climate changes programs and measures to reduce coal-fired power plants to less than 50% in the next five years include: new China model of energy policies commitment on CO2 and greenhouse gas emissions reductions to less than 20% non-fossil energy use by 2030 without undermining their economic growth, newly introduced electric vehicles transportation benefits, interactive and sustained air quality index (AQI) monitoring systems, decreasing reliance on fossil fuel economic activities, revision of energy price reforms and renewable energy to less energy efficient technologies development. Furthermore, ongoing CPCC improved environmental initiatives, implemented strict regulations and penalties on local companies and firms' pollution production management, massive infrastructures such as highways to reduce CO2 expansion of seven regional emissions trading markets and programs for CO2 emissions and other pollutants are being documented. Maximizing on the centralized nature of the China's government, implemented Chinese pollution, climate changes mitigation and adaptation initiatives, "SMART" strategies and credible measures are promising. A good and practical example is the interactive and dynamic website and database covering 367 Chinese cities and providing real time information on environmental and pollution emissions AQI. Also, water quality index (WQI), radiation and nuclear safety monitoring and management systems over time and space. These are ongoing Chinese valuable and exemplary leadership in Paris CCA implementation to the global community. Especially to pragmatic and responsible efforts to support pollution and climate changes capacity development, technology transfer and empowerment in emissions surveillance and monitoring systems and "SMART" integrated climate changes mitigation packages in global Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) context, citizenry health and wellbeing. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lessons Learned from Applications of a Climate Change Decision Tree toWater System Projects in Kenya and Nepal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ray, P. A.; Bonzanigo, L.; Taner, M. U.; Wi, S.; Yang, Y. C. E.; Brown, C.

2015-12-01

The Decision Tree Framework developed for the World Bank's Water Partnership Program provides resource-limited project planners and program managers with a cost-effective and effort-efficient, scientifically defensible, repeatable, and clear method for demonstrating the robustness of a project to climate change. At the conclusion of this process, the project planner is empowered to confidently communicate the method by which the vulnerabilities of the project have been assessed, and how the adjustments that were made (if any were necessary) improved the project's feasibility and profitability. The framework adopts a "bottom-up" approach to risk assessment that aims at a thorough understanding of a project's vulnerabilities to climate change in the context of other nonclimate uncertainties (e.g., economic, environmental, demographic, political). It helps identify projects that perform well across a wide range of potential future climate conditions, as opposed to seeking solutions that are optimal in expected conditions but fragile to conditions deviating from the expected. Lessons learned through application of the Decision Tree to case studies in Kenya and Nepal will be presented, and aspects of the framework requiring further refinement will be described.

Organizational climate, occupational stress, and employee mental health: mediating effects of organizational efficiency.

PubMed

Arnetz, Bengt B; Lucas, Todd; Arnetz, Judith E

2011-01-01

To determine whether the relationship between organizational climate and employee mental health is consistent (ie, invariant) or differs across four large hospitals, and whether organizational efficiency mediates this relationship. Participants (total N = 5316) completed validated measures of organizational climate variables (social climate, participatory management, goal clarity, and performance feedback), organizational efficiency, occupational stress, and mental health. Path analysis best supported a model in which organizational efficiency partially mediated relationships between organizational climate, occupational stress, and mental health. Focusing on improving both the psychosocial work environment and organizational efficiency might contribute to decreased employee stress, improved mental well-being, and organizational performance.

Deep uncertainty and broad heterogeneity in country-level social cost of carbon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ricke, K.; Drouet, L.; Caldeira, K.; Tavoni, M.

2017-12-01

The social cost of carbon (SCC) is a commonly employed metric of the expected economic damages expected from carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Recent estimates of SCC range from approximately 10/tonne of CO2 to as much as 1000/tCO2, but these have been computed at the global level. While useful in an optimal policy context, a world-level approach obscures the heterogeneous geography of climate damages and vast differences in country-level contributions to global SCC, as well as climate and socio-economic uncertainties, which are much larger at the regional level. For the first time, we estimate country-level contributions to SCC using recent climate and carbon-cycle model projections, empirical climate-driven economic damage estimations, and information from the Shared Socio-economic Pathways. Central specifications show high global SCC values (median: 417 /tCO2, 66% confidence intervals: 168 - 793 /tCO2) with country-level contributions ranging from -11 (-8 - -14) /tCO2 to 86 (50 - 158) /tCO2. We quantify climate-, scenario- and economic damage- driven uncertainties associated with the calculated values of SCC. We find that while the magnitude of country-level social cost of carbon is highly uncertain, the relative positioning among countries is consistent. Countries incurring large fractions of the global cost include India, China, and the United States. The share of SCC distributed among countries is robust, indicating climate change winners and losers from a geopolitical perspective.

Providing Decision-Relevant Information for a State Climate Change Action Plan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wake, C.; Frades, M.; Hurtt, G. C.; Magnusson, M.; Gittell, R.; Skoglund, C.; Morin, J.

2008-12-01

Carbon Solutions New England (CSNE), a public-private partnership formed to promote collective action to achieve a low carbon society, has been working with the Governor appointed New Hampshire Climate Change Policy Task Force (NHCCTF) to support the development of a state Climate Change Action Plan. CSNE's role has been to quantify the potential carbon emissions reduction, implementation costs, and cost savings at three distinct time periods (2012, 2025, 2050) for a range of strategies identified by the Task Force. These strategies were developed for several sectors (transportation and land use, electricity generation and use, building energy use, and agriculture, forestry, and waste).New Hampshire's existing and projected economic and population growth are well above the regional average, creating additional challenges for the state to meet regional emission reduction targets. However, by pursuing an ambitious suite of renewable energy and energy efficiency strategies, New Hampshire may be able to continue growing while reducing emissions at a rate close to 3% per year up to 2025. This suite includes efficiency improvements in new and existing buildings, a renewable portfolio standard for electricity generation, avoiding forested land conversion, fuel economy gains in new vehicles, and a reduction in vehicle miles traveled. Most (over 80%) of these emission reduction strategies are projected to provide net economic savings in 2025.A collaborative and iterative process was developed among the key partners in the project. The foundation for the project's success included: a diverse analysis team with leadership that was committed to the project, an open source analysis approach, weekly meetings and frequent communication among the partners, interim reporting of analysis, and an established and trusting relationship among the partners, in part due to collaboration on previous projects.To develop decision-relevant information for the Task Force, CSNE addressed several challenges, including: allocating the emission reduction and economic impacts of local- to state-scale mitigation strategies that are in reality integrated on regional and/or national scales; incorporating changes to the details of the strategies over time; identifying and quantifying key variables; choosing appropriate levels of detail for over 100 strategies within the limited analysis timeframe; integrating individual strategies into a coherent whole; and structuring data presentation to maximize transparency of analysis without confusing or overwhelming decision makers.

Regional assessment of the hydropower potential of rivers in West Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kling, Harald; Stanzel, Philipp; Fuchs, Martin

2016-04-01

The 15 countries of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) face a constant shortage of energy supply, which limits sustained economic growth. Currently there are about 50 operational hydropower plants and about 40 more are under construction or refurbishment. The potential for future hydropower development - especially for small-scale plants in rural areas - is assumed to be large, but exact data are missing. This study supports the energy initiatives of the "ECOWAS Centre for Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency" (ECREEE) by assessing the hydropower potential of all rivers in West Africa. For more than 500,000 river reaches the hydropower potential was computed from channel slope and mean annual discharge. In large areas there is a lack of discharge observations. Therefore, an annual water balance model was used to simulate discharge. The model domain covers 5 Mio km², including e.g. the Niger, Volta, and Senegal River basins. The model was calibrated with observed data of 410 gauges, using precipitation and potential evapotranspiration data as inputs. Historic variations of observed annual discharge between 1950 and 2010 are simulated well by the model. As hydropower plants are investments with a lifetime of several decades we also assessed possible changes in future discharge due to climate change. To this end the water balance model was driven with bias-corrected climate projections of 15 Regional Climate Models for two emission scenarios of the CORDEX-Africa ensemble. The simulation results for the river network were up-scaled to sub-areas and national summaries. This information gives a regional quantification of the hydropower potential, expected climate change impacts, as well as a regional classification for general suitability (or non-suitability) of hydropower plant size - from small-scale to large projects.

Mediterranean agriculture: More efficient irrigation needed to compensate increases in future irrigation water requirements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fader, Marianela; Shi, Sinan; von Bloh, Werner; Bondeau, Alberte; Cramer, Wolfgang

2016-04-01

Irrigation in the Mediterranean is of vital importance for food security, employment and economic development. Our research shows that, at present, Mediterranean region could save 35% of water by implementing more efficient irrigation and conveyance systems. Some countries like Syria, Egypt and Turkey have higher saving potentials than others. Currently some crops, especially sugar cane and agricultural trees, consume in average more irrigation water per hectare than annual crops (1). Also under climate change, more efficient irrigation is of vital importance for counteracting increases in irrigation water requirements. The Mediterranean area as a whole might face an increase in gross irrigation requirements between 4% and 18% from climate change alone by the end of the century if irrigation systems and conveyance are not improved. Population growth increases these numbers to 22% and 74%, respectively, affecting mainly the Southern and Eastern Mediterranean. However, improved irrigation technologies and conveyance systems have large water saving potentials, especially in the Eastern Mediterranean, and may be able to compensate to some degree the increases due to climate change and population growth. Both subregions would need around 35% more water than today if they could afford some degree of modernization of irrigation and conveyance systems and benefit from the CO2-fertilization effect (1). However, in some scenarios (in this case as combinations of climate change, irrigation technology, influence of population growth and CO2-fertilization effect) water scarcity may constrain the supply of the irrigation water needed in future in Algeria, Libya, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, Serbia, Morocco, Tunisia and Spain (1). In this study, vegetation growth, phenology, agricultural production and irrigation water requirements and withdrawal were simulated with the process-based ecohydrological and agro-ecosystem model LPJmL ("Lund-Potsdam-Jena managed Land") after a large development that comprised the improved representation of Mediterranean crops (2). References: (1) Fader, M., von Bloh, W., Shi, S., Bondeau, A., Cramer, W. (2015) : Mediterranean irrigation under climate change : More efficient irrigation needed to compensate increases in irrigation water requirements. HESSD 12, 8459-8504. (2) Fader, M., von Bloh, W., Shi, S., Bondeau, A., Cramer, W. (2015) : Modelling Mediterranean agro-ecosystems by including agricultural trees in the LPJmL model. Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 3545-3561, 2015.

The Medieval Climate Anomaly and Byzantium: A review of the evidence on climatic fluctuations, economic performance and societal change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xoplaki, Elena; Fleitmann, Dominik; Luterbacher, Juerg; Wagner, Sebastian; Haldon, John F.; Zorita, Eduardo; Telelis, Ioannis; Toreti, Andrea; Izdebski, Adam

2016-03-01

At the beginning of the Medieval Climate Anomaly, in the ninth and tenth century, the medieval eastern Roman empire, more usually known as Byzantium, was recovering from its early medieval crisis and experiencing favourable climatic conditions for the agricultural and demographic growth. Although in the Balkans and Anatolia such favourable climate conditions were prevalent during the eleventh century, parts of the imperial territories were facing significant challenges as a result of external political/military pressure. The apogee of medieval Byzantine socio-economic development, around AD 1150, coincides with a period of adverse climatic conditions for its economy, so it becomes obvious that the winter dryness and high climate variability at this time did not hinder Byzantine society and economy from achieving that level of expansion. Soon after this peak, towards the end of the twelfth century, the populations of the Byzantine world were experiencing unusual climatic conditions with marked dryness and cooler phases. The weakened Byzantine socio-political system must have contributed to the events leading to the fall of Constantinople in AD 1204 and the sack of the city. The final collapse of the Byzantine political control over western Anatolia took place half century later, thus contemporaneous with the strong cooling effect after a tropical volcanic eruption in AD 1257. We suggest that, regardless of a range of other influential factors, climate change was also an important contributing factor to the socio-economic changes that took place in Byzantium during the Medieval Climate Anomaly. Crucially, therefore, while the relatively sophisticated and complex Byzantine society was certainly influenced by climatic conditions, and while it nevertheless displayed a significant degree of resilience, external pressures as well as tensions within the Byzantine society more broadly contributed to an increasing vulnerability in respect of climate impacts. Our interdisciplinary analysis is based on all available sources of information on the climate and society of Byzantium, that is textual (documentary), archaeological, environmental, climate and climate model-based evidence about the nature and extent of climate variability in the eastern Mediterranean. The key challenge was, therefore, to assess the relative influence to be ascribed to climate variability and change on the one hand, and on the other to the anthropogenic factors in the evolution of Byzantine state and society (such as invasions, changes in international or regional market demand and patterns of production and consumption, etc.). The focus of this interdisciplinary study was to address the possible causal relationships between climatic and socio-economic change and to assess the resilience of the Byzantine socio-economic system in the context of climate change impacts.

The Medieval Climate Anomaly and Byzantium: A review of the evidence on climatic fluctuations, economic performance and societal change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xoplaki, Elena; Fleitmann, Dominik; Luterbacher, Juerg; Wagner, Sebastian; Haldon, John F.; Zorita, Eduardo; Telelis, Ioannis; Toreti, Andrea; Izdebski, Adam

2016-04-01

At the beginning of the Medieval Climate Anomaly, in the ninth and tenth century, the medieval eastern Roman empire, more usually known as Byzantium, was recovering from its early medieval crisis and experiencing favourable climatic conditions for the agricultural and demographic growth. Although in the Balkans and Anatolia such favourable climate conditions were prevalent during the eleventh century, parts of the imperial territories were facing significant challenges as a result of external political/military pressure. The apogee of medieval Byzantine socio-economic development, around AD 1150, coincides with a period of adverse climatic conditions for its economy, so it becomes obvious that the winter dryness and high climate variability at this time did not hinder Byzantine society and economy from achieving that level of expansion. Soon after this peak, towards the end of the twelfth century, the populations of the Byzantine world were experiencing unusual climatic conditions with marked dryness and cooler phases. The weakened Byzantine socio-political system must have contributed to the events leading to the fall of Constantinople in AD 1204 and the sack of the city. The final collapse of the Byzantine political control over western Anatolia took place half century later, thus contemporaneous with the strong cooling effect after a tropical volcanic eruption in AD 1257. We suggest that, regardless of a range of other influential factors, climate change was also an important contributing factor to the socio-economic changes that took place in Byzantium during the Medieval Climate Anomaly. Crucially, therefore, while the relatively sophisticated and complex Byzantine society was certainly influenced by climatic conditions, and while it nevertheless displayed a significant degree of resilience, external pressures as well as tensions within the Byzantine society more broadly contributed to an increasing vulnerability in respect of climate impacts. Our interdisciplinary analysis is based on all available sources of information on the climate and society of Byzantium, that is textual (documentary), archaeological, environmental, climate and climate model-based evidence about the nature and extent of climate variability in the eastern Mediterranean. The key challenge was, therefore, to assess the relative influence to be ascribed to climate variability and change on the one hand, and on the other to the anthropogenic factors in the evolution of Byzantine state and society (such as invasions, changes in international or regional market demand and patterns of production and consumption, etc.). The focus of this interdisciplinary study was to address the possible causal relationships between climatic and socio-economic change and to assess the resilience of the Byzantine socio-economic system in the context of climate change impacts.

Economic and environmental evaluation of compressed-air cars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Creutzig, Felix; Papson, Andrew; Schipper, Lee; Kammen, Daniel M.

2009-10-01

Climate change and energy security require a reduction in travel demand, a modal shift, and technological innovation in the transport sector. Through a series of press releases and demonstrations, a car using energy stored in compressed air produced by a compressor has been suggested as an environmentally friendly vehicle of the future. We analyze the thermodynamic efficiency of a compressed-air car powered by a pneumatic engine and consider the merits of compressed air versus chemical storage of potential energy. Even under highly optimistic assumptions the compressed-air car is significantly less efficient than a battery electric vehicle and produces more greenhouse gas emissions than a conventional gas-powered car with a coal intensive power mix. However, a pneumatic-combustion hybrid is technologically feasible, inexpensive and could eventually compete with hybrid electric vehicles.

CONSOL`s perspective on CCT deployment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Burke, F.P.; Statnick, R.M.

1997-12-31

The principal focus of government investment in Clean Coal Technology must be to serve the interests of the US energy consumer. Because of its security of supply and low cost, coal will continue to be the fuel of choice in the existing domestic electricity generating market. The ability of coal to compete for new generating capacity will depend largely on natural gas prices and the efficiency of coal and gas-fired generating options. Furthermore, potential environmental regulations, coupled with utility deregulation, create a climate of economic uncertainty that may limit future investment decisions favorable to coal. Therefore, the federal government, throughmore » programs such as CCT, should promote the development of greenfield and retrofit coal use technology that improves generating efficiency and meets environmental requirements for the domestic electric market.« less

Energy savings and cost-benefit analysis of the new commercial building standard in China

DOE PAGES

Zhao, Shanguo; Feng, Wei; Zhang, Shicong; ...

2015-10-07

In this study, a comprehensive comparison of the commercial building energy efficiency standard between the previous 2005 version and the new proposed version is conducted, including the energy efficiency analysis and cost-benefit analysis. To better understand the tech-economic performance of the new Chinese standard, energy models were set up based on a typical commercial office building in Chinese climate zones. The building energy standard in 2005 is used as the baseline for this analysis. Key building technologies measures are analyzed individually, including roof, wall, window, lighting and chiller and so on and finally whole building cost-benefit analysis was conducted. Resultsmore » show that the new commercial building energy standard demonstrates good cost-effective performance, with whole building payback period around 4 years.« less

Energy savings and cost-benefit analysis of the new commercial building standard in China

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhao, Shanguo; Feng, Wei; Zhang, Shicong

In this study, a comprehensive comparison of the commercial building energy efficiency standard between the previous 2005 version and the new proposed version is conducted, including the energy efficiency analysis and cost-benefit analysis. To better understand the tech-economic performance of the new Chinese standard, energy models were set up based on a typical commercial office building in Chinese climate zones. The building energy standard in 2005 is used as the baseline for this analysis. Key building technologies measures are analyzed individually, including roof, wall, window, lighting and chiller and so on and finally whole building cost-benefit analysis was conducted. Resultsmore » show that the new commercial building energy standard demonstrates good cost-effective performance, with whole building payback period around 4 years.« less

Optimizing cultivation of agricultural products using socio-economic and environmental scenarios.

PubMed

RaheliNamin, Behnaz; Mortazavi, Samar; Salmanmahiny, Abdolrassoul

2016-11-01

The combination of degrading natural conditions and resources, climate change, growing population, urban development, and competition in a global market complicate optimization of land for agricultural products. The use of pesticides and fertilizers for crop production in the agricultural fields has become excessive in the recent years and Golestan Province of Iran is no exception in this regard. For this, effective management with an efficient and cost-effective practice should be undertaken, maintaining public service at a high level and preserving the environment. Improving the production efficiency of agriculture, efficient use of water resources, decreasing the use of pesticides and fertilizers, improving farmer revenue, and conservation of natural resources are the main objectives of the allocation, ranking, and optimization of agricultural products. The goal of this paper is to use an optimization procedure to lower the negative effects of agriculture while maintaining a high production rate, which is currently a gap in the study area. We collected information about fertilizer and pesticide consumption and other data in croplands of eastern Golestan Province through face-to-face interviews with farmers to optimize cultivation of the agricultural products. The toxicity of pesticides according to LD50 was also included in the optimization model. A decision-support software system called multiple criteria analysis tool was used to simultaneously minimize consumption of water, chemical fertilizers, and pesticides and maximize socio-economic returns. Three scenarios for optimization of agricultural products were generated that alternatively emphasized on environmental and socio-economic goals. Comparing socio-economic and environmental performance of the optimized agricultural products under the three scenarios illustrated the conflict between social, economic, and environmental objectives. Of the six crops studied (wheat, barley, rice, soybeans, oilseed rape, and maize), rice ranked second in the social and fifth in the economic scenarios. Soybeans had the lowest rank for economic and social scenarios and its cultivation in the study area, in terms of economic and social goals, was rejected by the model. However, cultivation of soybeans continues in the area as a responsibility to cater for the major need of the country. Because of subsidized prices of water, fertilizers, and pesticides, the use of these items are far from optimized in the current agricultural practices in the area.

Increase in forest water-use efficiency as atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations rise.

PubMed

Keenan, Trevor F; Hollinger, David Y; Bohrer, Gil; Dragoni, Danilo; Munger, J William; Schmid, Hans Peter; Richardson, Andrew D

2013-07-18

Terrestrial plants remove CO2 from the atmosphere through photosynthesis, a process that is accompanied by the loss of water vapour from leaves. The ratio of water loss to carbon gain, or water-use efficiency, is a key characteristic of ecosystem function that is central to the global cycles of water, energy and carbon. Here we analyse direct, long-term measurements of whole-ecosystem carbon and water exchange. We find a substantial increase in water-use efficiency in temperate and boreal forests of the Northern Hemisphere over the past two decades. We systematically assess various competing hypotheses to explain this trend, and find that the observed increase is most consistent with a strong CO2 fertilization effect. The results suggest a partial closure of stomata-small pores on the leaf surface that regulate gas exchange-to maintain a near-constant concentration of CO2 inside the leaf even under continually increasing atmospheric CO2 levels. The observed increase in forest water-use efficiency is larger than that predicted by existing theory and 13 terrestrial biosphere models. The increase is associated with trends of increasing ecosystem-level photosynthesis and net carbon uptake, and decreasing evapotranspiration. Our findings suggest a shift in the carbon- and water-based economics of terrestrial vegetation, which may require a reassessment of the role of stomatal control in regulating interactions between forests and climate change, and a re-evaluation of coupled vegetation-climate models.

Exploring climate change vulnerability across sectors and scenarios using indicators of impacts and coping capacity.

PubMed

Dunford, R; Harrison, P A; Jäger, J; Rounsevell, M D A; Tinch, R

Addressing climate change vulnerability requires an understanding of both the level of climate impacts and the capacity of the exposed population to cope. This study developed a methodology for allowing users to explore vulnerability to changes in ecosystem services as a result of climatic and socio-economic changes. It focuses on the vulnerability of Europe across multiple sectors by combining the outputs of a regional integrated assessment (IA) model, the CLIMSAVE IA Platform, with maps of coping capacity based on the five capitals approach. The presented methodology enables stakeholder-derived socio-economic futures to be represented within a quantitative integrated modelling framework in a way that changes spatially and temporally with the socio-economic storyline. Vulnerability was mapped for six key ecosystem services in 40 combined climate and socio-economic scenarios. The analysis shows that, whilst the north and west of Europe are generally better placed to cope with climate impacts than the south and east, coping could be improved in all areas. Furthermore, whilst the lack of coping capacity in dystopian scenarios often leads to greater vulnerability, there are complex interactions between sectors that lead to patterns of vulnerability that vary spatially, with scenario and by sector even within the more utopian futures.

Assessing the effectiveness of Multi-Sector Partnerships to manage droughts: The case of the Jucar river basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carmona, María.; Máñez Costa, María.; Andreu, Joaquín.; Pulido-Velazquez, Manuel; Haro-Monteagudo, David; Lopez-Nicolas, Antonio; Cremades, Roger

2017-07-01

South-east Spain is a drought prone area, characterized by climate variability and water scarcity. The Jucar River Basin, located in Eastern Spain, has suffered many historical droughts with significant socio-economic impacts. For nearly a hundred years, the institutional and non-institutional strategies to cope with droughts have been successful through the development of institutions and partnerships for drought management including multiple actors. In this paper, we show how the creation and institutionalisation of Multi-Sector Partnerships (MSPs) has supported the development of an efficient drought management. Furthermore, we analyze the performance of one of the suggested instruments by the partnership related to drought management in the basin. Two methodologies are used for these purposes. On one hand, the Capital Approach Framework to analyze the effectiveness of the governance processes in a particular partnership (Permanent Drought Commission), which aims to highlight the governance strength and weakness of the MSP for enhancing drought management in the Jucar River Basin. Through a dynamic analysis of the changes that the partnership has undergone over time to successfully deal with droughts, its effectiveness on drought management is demonstrated. On the other hand, an econometric approach is used to analyze the economic efficiency of the emergency drought wells as one of the key drought mitigation measures suggested by the Permanent Drought Commission and implemented. The results demonstrate the potential and efficiency of applying drought wells as mitigation measures (significant reduction of economic losses, around 50 M€ during the drought period, 2005-2008).

Risky Business and the American Climate Prospectus: Economic Risks of Climate Change in the United States"

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gordon, K.; Houser, T.; Kopp, R. E., III; Hsiang, S. M.; Larsen, K.; Jina, A.; Delgado, M.; Muir-Wood, R.; Rasmussen, D.; Rising, J.; Mastrandrea, M.; Wilson, P. S.

2014-12-01

The United States faces a range of economic risks from global climate change - from increased flooding and storm damage, to climate-driven changes in crop yields and labor productivity, to heat-related strains on energy and public health systems. The Risky Business Project commissioned a groundbreaking new analysis of these and other climate risks by region of the country and sector of the economy. The American Climate Prospectus (ACP) links state-of-the-art climate models with econometric research of human responses to climate variability and cutting edge private sector risk assessment tools, the ACP offers decision-makers a data driven assessment of the specific risks they face. We describe the challenge, methods, findings, and policy implications of the national risk analysis, with particular focus on methodological innovations and novel insights.

Introduction to the Special Issue on Climate Ethics: Uncertainty, Values and Policy.

PubMed

Roeser, Sabine

2017-10-01

Climate change is a pressing phenomenon with huge potential ethical, legal and social policy implications. Climate change gives rise to intricate moral and policy issues as it involves contested science, uncertainty and risk. In order to come to scientifically and morally justified, as well as feasible, policies, targeting climate change requires an interdisciplinary approach. This special issue will identify the main challenges that climate change poses from social, economic, methodological and ethical perspectives by focusing on the complex interrelations between uncertainty, values and policy in this context. This special issue brings together scholars from economics, social sciences and philosophy in order to address these challenges.

Factors Affecting Aerosol Radiative Forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Jingxu; Lin, Jintai; Ni, Ruijing

2016-04-01

Rapid industrial and economic growth has meant a large amount of aerosols in the atmosphere with strong radiative forcing (RF) upon the climate system. Over parts of the globe, the negative forcing of aerosols has overcompensated for the positive forcing of greenhouse gases. Aerosol RF is determined by emissions and various chemical-transport-radiative processes in the atmosphere, a multi-factor problem whose individual contributors have not been well quantified. In this study, we analyze the major factors affecting RF of secondary inorganic aerosols (SIOAs, including sulfate, nitrate and ammonium), primary organic aerosol (POA), and black carbon (BC). We analyze the RF of aerosols produced by 11 major regions across the globe, including but not limited to East Asia, Southeast Asia, South Asia, North America, and Western Europe. Factors analyzed include population size, per capita gross domestic production (GDP), emission intensity (i.e., emissions per unit GDP), chemical efficiency (i.e., mass per unit emissions) and radiative efficiency (i.e., RF per unit mass). We find that among the 11 regions, East Asia produces the largest emissions and aerosol RF, due to relatively high emission intensity and a tremendous population size. South Asia produce the second largest RF of SIOA and BC and the highest RF of POA, in part due to its highest chemical efficiency among all regions. Although Southeast Asia also has large emissions, its aerosol RF is alleviated by its lowest chemical efficiency. The chemical efficiency and radiative efficiency of BC produced by the Middle East-North Africa are the highest across the regions, whereas its RF is lowered by a small per capita GDP. Both North America and Western Europe have low emission intensity, compensating for the effects on RF of large population sizes and per capita GDP. There has been a momentum to transfer industries to Southeast Asia and South Asia, and such transition is expected to continue in the coming years. The resulting relocation of emissions would meant drastic changes in both the spatial distribution and the magnitude of RF, with consequences on regional and global climate forcing. Our findings are relevant to global aerosol control and climate mitigation.

Factors Affecting Aerosol Radiative Forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, J.; Lin, J.; Ni, R.

2016-12-01

Rapid industrial and economic growth has meant large amount of aerosols in the atmosphere with strong radiative forcing (RF) upon the climate system. Over parts of the globe, the negative forcing of aerosols has overcompensated for the positive forcing of greenhouse gases. Aerosol RF is determined by emissions and various chemical-transport-radiative processes in the atmosphere, a multi-factor problem whose individual contributors have not been well quantified. In this study, we analyze the major factors affecting RF of secondary inorganic aerosols (SIOAs, including sulfate, nitrate and ammonium), primary organic aerosol (POA), and black carbon (BC). We analyze the RFof aerosols produced by 11 major regions across the globe, including but not limited to East Asia, Southeast Asia, South Asia, North America, and Western Europe. Factors analyzed include population size, per capita gross domestic production (GDP), emission intensity (i.e., emissionsper unit GDP), chemical efficiency (i.e., mass per unit emissions) and radiative efficiency (i.e., RF per unit mass). We find that among the 11 regions, East Asia produces the largest emissions and aerosol RF, due to relatively high emission intensity and a tremendous population size.South Asia produce the second largest RF of SIOA and BC and the highest RF of POA, in part due to its highest chemical efficiency among all regions. Although Southeast Asia also has large emissions,its aerosol RF is alleviated by its lowest chemical efficiency.The chemical efficiency and radiative efficiency of BC produced by the Middle East-North Africa are the highest across the regions, whereas its RF is loweredbyasmall per capita GDP.Both North America and Western Europe have low emission intensity, compensating for the effects on RF of large population sizes and per capita GDP. There has been a momentum to transfer industries to Southeast Asia and South Asia, and such transition is expected to continue in the coming years. The resulting relocation of emissions would meant drastic changes in both the spatial distribution and the magnitude of RF, with consequences on regional and global climate forcing. Our findings are relevant to global aerosol control and climate mitigation.

The production of consuming less: Energy efficiency, climate change, and light bulbs in North Carolina

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thoyre, Autumn

In this research, I have analyzed the production of consuming less electricity through a case study of promotions of compact fluorescent light bulbs (CFLs). I focused on the CFL because it has been heavily promoted by environmentalists and electricity companies as a key tool for solving climate change, yet such promotions appear counter-intuitive. The magnitude of CFL promotions by environmentalists is surprising because CFLs can only impact less than 1% of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions. CFL promotions by electricity providers are surprising given such companies' normal incentives to sell more of their product. I used political ecological and symbolic interactionist theories, qualitative methods of data collection (including interviews, participant-observation, texts, and images), and a grounded theory analysis to understand this case. My findings suggest that, far from being a self-evident technical entity, energy efficiency is produced as an idea, a part of identities, a resource, and a source of value through social, political, and economic processes. These processes include identity formation and subjectification; gender-coded household labor; and corporate appropriation of household value resulting from environmental governance. I show how environmentalists use CFLs to make and claim neoliberal identities, proposing the concept of green neoliberal identity work as a mechanism through which neoliberal ideologies are translated into practices. I analyze how using this seemingly easy energy efficient technology constitutes labor that is gendered in ways that reflect and reproduce inequalities. I show how electricity companies have used environmental governance to valorize and appropriate home energy efficiency as an accumulation strategy. I conclude by discussing the symbolic power of CFLs, proposing a theory of green obsolescence, and framing the production of energy efficiency as a global production network. I found that promoting energy efficiency involves consuming less energy by consuming more technologies. This research contributes to understandings of how environmentalists become laboring subjects in an era of neoliberalism and how energy companies are responding to the threat of climate change by turning mitigation into an opportunity for profit.

Climate protection in Germany`s bilateral development co-operation with the People`s Republic of China

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Schneider, A.

1996-12-31

For globally sustainable development to be achieved, three concerns are central: productive economic growth, social justice and ecological sustainability. Development co-operation supports the realisation of these three goals in partner countries by helping to alleviate poverty, promote economic growth through private-sector development and protect vital natural resources. The aim of globally sustainable development can only be achieved if industrial countries too implement necessary reforms and structural adjustments at every level. Co-operation efforts with partners must therefore be complemented by coherent policies at home. This is a matter of credibility, but also of developmental far-sightedness. Internal reforms in the industrial countriesmore » secure financial leeway for their providing foreign assistance in the longer term. Environmental and resource protection as a focal point of Germany`s development co-operation with the PRC aims to preserve vital natural resources, shape economic development in their partner countries in an ecologically sound manner and put China in a position to participate in global endeavours to protect the environment. Climate protection measures figure prominently in this area. This is justified given China`s share of global CO{sub 2} emissions and the potential for energy-saving measures and measures to increase power intensity. This potential is derived primarily from the possibility of using energy-efficient technologies, increasing the relatively low energy prices and making use of renewable sources of energy.« less

Assessing the Impacts of Decadal Socio-Agro-Hydro Climatic Variations on Agricultural Vulnerability over India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohanty, M. P.; Sharma, T.; Ghosh, S.; Karmakar, S.

2017-12-01

Among both rice and wheat producing countries, India holds one of the major global shares in terms of production. However, with rising population, economic variability, and increasing food demand, it has become indispensable to strategically assess the food security of the nation, particularly under changing climatic conditions. This can be achieved by improving knowledge on the impacts of climate change on crop growth and yield through understanding the current status of agricultural vulnerability and quantifying its decadal changes. The present research focuses on assessing the observed decadal changes in agricultural vulnerability over India, at a district-scale. In the study, the deliberation of multiple climatic, hydrologic, agricultural indicators will majorly facilitate evaluating their direct/indirect influence on the crop production. In addition, a set of socio-economic indicators will also be considered to understand the attribution of these factors on the change in agricultural vulnerability. Here, these indicators will be integrated into a multivariate data envelopment analysis (DEA) framework to derive relative efficiency of each unit or district in crop production, which will be further transformed into a well-grounded agricultural vulnerability map. It has become essential to understand the influence of these indicators on agriculture, given that the extended periods of excessive/no rainfall or high/low temperature can alter the water cycle and hence cause stress on the agroecosystem. Likewise, change in the population density, main and marginal cultivators, main and marginal agriculture labours, improvement in management practices, or increase in power supply for agricultural use, can directly affect the food security of the region. Hence, this study will undoubtedly assist the decision-makers/strategists by highlighting the agriculturally vulnerable regions over India. Consequently, it will reassure the farmers to define bottom-up approaches in terms of different management practices, to cope with the adverse climatic impacts.

Carbon Management In the Post-Cap-and-Trade Carbon Economy-Part II

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

DeGroff, F. A.

2014-12-01

This is the second installment in our search for a comprehensive economic model to mitigate climate change due to anthropogenic activity. Last year we presented how the unique features of our economic model measure changes in carbon flux due to anthropogenic activity, referred to as carbon quality or CQ, and how the model is used to value such changes in the climate system. This year, our paper focuses on how carbon quality can be implemented to capture the effect of economic activity and international trade on the climate system, thus allowing us to calculate a Return on Climate System (RoCS) for all economic assets and activity. The result is that the RoCS for each public and private economic activity and entity can be calculated by summing up the RoCS for each individual economic asset and activity in which an entity is engaged. Such a macro-level scale is used to rank public and private entities including corporations, governments, and even entire nations, as well as human adaptation and carbon storage activities, providing status and trending insights to evaluate policies on both a micro- and macro-economic level. With international trade, RoCS measures the embodied effects on climate change that will be needed to assess border fees to insure carbon parity on all imports and exports. At the core of our vision is a comprehensive, 'open-source' construct of which our carbon quality metric is the first element. One goal is to recognize each country's endemic resources and infrastructure that affect their ability to manage carbon, while preventing spatial and temporal shifting of carbon emissions that reduce or reverse efforts to mitigate climate change. The standards for calculating the RoCS can be promulgated as part of the Generally Accepted Accounted Principles (GAAP) and the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) to ensure standard and consistent reporting. The value of such insights on the climate system at all levels will be crucial to managing anthropogenic activity in order to minimize the effect on the climate system. Without the insights provided by a comprehensive, standardized and verifiable RoCS, managing anthropogenic activity will be elusive and difficult to achieve, at best. Such a model may also be useful to manage the effect of anthropogenic activity on the nitrogen and phosphorous cycles.

Climate variability and demand growth as drivers of water scarcity in the Turkwel river basin: a bottom-up risk assessment of a data-sparse basin in Kenya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hirpa, F. A.; Dyer, E.; Hope, R.; Dadson, S. J.

2017-12-01

Sustainable water management and allocation are essential for maintaining human well-being, sustaining healthy ecosystems, and supporting steady economic growth. The Turkwel river basin, located in north-western Kenya, experiences a high level of water scarcity due to its arid climate, high rainfall variability, and rapidly growing water demand. However, due to sparse hydro-climatic data and limited literature, the water resources system of the basin has been poorly understood. Here we apply a bottom-up climate risk assessment method to estimate the resilience of the basin's water resources system to growing demand and climate stressors. First, using a water resource system model and historical climate data, we construct a climate risk map that depicts the way in which the system responds to climate change and variability. Then we develop a set of water demand scenarios to identify the conditions that potentially lead to the risk of unmet water demand and groundwater depletion. Finally, we investigate the impact of climate change and variability by stress testing these development scenarios against historically strong El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) years and future climate projections from multiple Global Circulation Models (GCMs). The results reveal that climate variability and increased water demand are the main drivers of water scarcity in the basin. Our findings show that increases in water demand due to expanded irrigation and population growth exert the strongest influence on the ability of the system to meet water resource supply requirements, and in all cases considered increase the impacts of droughts caused by future climate variability. Our analysis illustrates the importance of combining analysis of future climate risks with other development decisions that affect water resources planning. Policy and investment decisions which maximise water use efficiency in the present day are likely to impart resilience to climate change and variability under a wide range of future scenarios and therefore constitute low regret measures for climate adaptation.

Climate Change Impacts on Migration in the Vulnerable Countries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

An, Nazan; Incealtin, Gamze; Kurnaz, M. Levent; Şengün Ucal, Meltem

2014-05-01

This work focuses on the economic, demographic and environmental drivers of migration related with the sustainable development in underdeveloped and developed countries, which are the most vulnerable to the climate change impacts through the Climate-Development Modeling including climate modeling and panel logit data analysis. We have studied some countries namely Bangladesh, Netherlands, Morocco, Malaysia, Ethiopia and Bolivia. We have analyzed these countries according to their economic, demographic and environmental indicators related with the determinants of migration, and we tried to indicate that their conditions differ according to all these factors concerning with the climate change impacts. This modeling covers some explanatory variables, which have the relationship with the migration, including GDP per capita, population, temperature and precipitation, which indicate the seasonal differences according to the years, the occurrence of natural hazards over the years, coastal location of countries, permanent cropland areas and fish capture which represents the amount of capturing over the years. We analyzed that whether there is a relationship between the migration and these explanatory variables. In order to achieve sustainable development by preventing or decreasing environmental migration due to climate change impacts or related other factors, these countries need to maintain economic, social, political, demographic, and in particular environmental performance. There are some significant risks stemming from climate change, which is not under control. When the economic and environmental conditions are considered, we have to regard climate change to be the more destructive force for those who are less defensible against all of these risks and impacts of uncontrolled climate change. This work was supported by the BU Research Fund under the project number 6990. One of the authors (MLK) was partially supported by Mercator-IPC Fellowship Program.

Does Aerosol Geoengineering the Earth's Climate Pass a Cost-Benefit Test?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keller, K.; Urban, N.; Tuana, N.

2007-12-01

Anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are changing the Earth's climate with potentially dangerous consequences. Ratified international agreements call for a reduction of CO2 emissions to avoid dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Recent studies have, however, proposed an alternative strategy: to geoengineer Earth's climate by injecting aerosol precursors into the stratosphere. It is often claimed that aerosol geoengineering would provide net economic benefits because geoengineering requires far lower near-term investments compared to deep cuts in CO2 emissions. However, aerosol geoengineering projects can also cause nontrivial economic costs. This is because aerosol geoengineering hinges on successfully counterbalancing the forcing effects of CO2 emissions (which decay over centuries) with the forcing effects of aerosol emissions (which decay within years). A failure to maintain this delicate balance can lead to abrupt climatic changes, with potentially substantial economic damages. Deferring cuts in CO2 emissions in favor of aerosol geoengineering is hence a deeply uncertain gamble, as it requires so far unknown institutions to reliably control aerosol forcings over centuries. Here we use a simple economic model to evaluate potential costs and benefits of aerosol geoengineering for a wide range of the deeply uncertain parameters. We show that aerosol geoengineering projects may cause economic damages that can far exceed the benefits and may hence fail a cost-benefit test.

Climate change and socio-economic scenarios, land use modelling implications on water resources in an inner alpine area, Switzerland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rey, Emmanuel; Schneider, Flurina; Liniger, Hanspeter; Weingartner, Rolf; Herweg, Karl

2014-05-01

The MontanAqua project aims to study the water resources management in the region Sierre-Montana (Valais, Switzerland). Land use is known to have an influence on the water resources (soil moisture dynamic, soil sealing, surface runoff and deep percolation). Thus land use modelling is of importance for the water resources management. An actual land use map was produced using infrared imagery (Niklaus 2012, Fig.1). Land use changes are known to be mainly drived by socio-economic factors as well as climatic factors (Dolman et al. 2003). Potential future Land uses was separatly predicted according to 1-. socio-economic and 2-. climatic/abiotic drivers : 1. 4 socio-economic scenarios were developped with stakeholders (Schneider et al. 2013) between 2010 and 2012. We modeled those socio-economic scenarios into a GIS application using Python programming (ModelBuilder in ArcGIS 10) to get a cartographic transcription of the wishes of the stakeholders for their region in 2050. 2. Uncorrelated climatic and abiotic drivers were used in a BIOMOD2 (Georges et al. 2013) framework. 4 models were used: Maximum Entropy (MAXENT), Multiple Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS), Classification Tree Analysis (CTA) and the Flexible Discriminant Analysis (FDA) to predict grassland, alpine pasture, vineyards and forest in our study region. Climatic scenarios were then introduced into the models to predict potential land use in 2050 driven only by climatic and abiotic factors The comparison of all the outputs demonstrates that the socio-economic drivers will have a more important impact in the region than the climatic drivers (e.g. -70% grassland surface for the worst socio-economic scenario vs. -40% of grassland surface for the worst climatic models). Further analysis also brings out the sensitivity of the grassland/alpine pasture system to the climate change and to socio-economic changes. Future work will be to cross the different land use maps obtained by the two model types and to use them to implement soil moisture and evaporation data for the near-future in the region Sierre-Montana. REFERENCES Niklaus M. 2012. An Object-oriented Approach for Mapping Current Land Use/Land Cover in the Study Area Crans-Montana-Sierre, Valais. MSc, Geography Institute, University of Bern Dolman A.J., Verhagen A. & Rovers C.A. 2003. Global environmental change and land use. Kluwer Academic Publisher. Dordrecht. Schneider F. & Rist S. 2013. Envisioning sustainable water futures in a transdisciplinary learning process: combining normative, explorative, and participatory scenario approaches. Sustainability Science, in press. Georges D. & Thuiller W. 2012. An example of species distribution modelling with biomod2. biomod2 version : 2.0.17

Economic tools to promote transparency and comparability in the Paris Agreement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aldy, Joseph; Pizer, William; Tavoni, Massimo; Reis, Lara Aleluia; Akimoto, Keigo; Blanford, Geoffrey; Carraro, Carlo; Clarke, Leon E.; Edmonds, James; Iyer, Gokul C.; McJeon, Haewon C.; Richels, Richard; Rose, Steven; Sano, Fuminori

2016-11-01

The Paris Agreement culminates a six-year transition towards an international climate policy architecture based on parties submitting national pledges every five years. An important policy task will be to assess and compare these contributions. We use four integrated assessment models to produce metrics of Paris Agreement pledges, and show differentiated effort across countries: wealthier countries pledge to undertake greater emission reductions with higher costs. The pledges fall in the lower end of the distributions of the social cost of carbon and the cost-minimizing path to limiting warming to 2 °C, suggesting insufficient global ambition in light of leaders’ climate goals. Countries’ marginal abatement costs vary by two orders of magnitude, illustrating that large efficiency gains are available through joint mitigation efforts and/or carbon price coordination. Marginal costs rise almost proportionally with income, but full policy costs reveal more complex regional patterns due to terms of trade effects.

Assessing the near-term risk of climate uncertainty : interdependencies among the U.S. states.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Loose, Verne W.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Malczynski, Leonard A.

2010-04-01

Policy makers will most likely need to make decisions about climate policy before climate scientists have resolved all relevant uncertainties about the impacts of climate change. This study demonstrates a risk-assessment methodology for evaluating uncertain future climatic conditions. We estimate the impacts of climate change on U.S. state- and national-level economic activity from 2010 to 2050. To understand the implications of uncertainty on risk and to provide a near-term rationale for policy interventions to mitigate the course of climate change, we focus on precipitation, one of the most uncertain aspects of future climate change. We use results of the climate-modelmore » ensemble from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report 4 (AR4) as a proxy for representing climate uncertainty over the next 40 years, map the simulated weather from the climate models hydrologically to the county level to determine the physical consequences on economic activity at the state level, and perform a detailed 70-industry analysis of economic impacts among the interacting lower-48 states. We determine the industry-level contribution to the gross domestic product and employment impacts at the state level, as well as interstate population migration, effects on personal income, and consequences for the U.S. trade balance. We show that the mean or average risk of damage to the U.S. economy from climate change, at the national level, is on the order of $1 trillion over the next 40 years, with losses in employment equivalent to nearly 7 million full-time jobs.« less

Modeling and assessing international climate financing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Jing; Tang, Lichun; Mohamed, Rayman; Zhu, Qianting; Wang, Zheng

2016-06-01

Climate financing is a key issue in current negotiations on climate protection. This study establishes a climate financing model based on a mechanism in which donor countries set up funds for climate financing and recipient countries use the funds exclusively for carbon emission reduction. The burden-sharing principles are based on GDP, historical emissions, and consumptionbased emissions. Using this model, we develop and analyze a series of scenario simulations, including a financing program negotiated at the Cancun Climate Change Conference (2010) and several subsequent programs. Results show that sustained climate financing can help to combat global climate change. However, the Cancun Agreements are projected to result in a reduction of only 0.01°C in global warming by 2100 compared to the scenario without climate financing. Longer-term climate financing programs should be established to achieve more significant benefits. Our model and simulations also show that climate financing has economic benefits for developing countries. Developed countries will suffer a slight GDP loss in the early stages of climate financing, but the longterm economic growth and the eventual benefits of climate mitigation will compensate for this slight loss. Different burden-sharing principles have very similar effects on global temperature change and economic growth of recipient countries, but they do result in differences in GDP changes for Japan and the FSU. The GDP-based principle results in a larger share of financial burden for Japan, while the historical emissions-based principle results in a larger share of financial burden for the FSU. A larger burden share leads to a greater GDP loss.

Combined installation of electric and heat supply for climatic conditions of Iraq

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaisi, Osama Al; Sidenkov, D. V.

2017-11-01

Electricity, heating and cooling are the three main components that make up the energy consumption base in residential, commercial and public buildings around the world. Demand for energy and fuel costs are constantly growing. Combined cooling, heating and power generation or trigeneration can be a promising solution to such a problem, providing an efficient, reliable, flexible, competitive and less harmful alternative to existing heat and cold supply systems. In this paper, scheme of the tri-generation plant on non-aqueous working substances is considered as an installation of a locally centralized electro-heat and cold supply of a typical residential house in a hot climate. The scheme of the combined installation of electro-heat (cold) supply consisted of the vapor power plant and heat pump system on low-boiling working substance for local consumers under the climatic conditions of Iraq is presented. The possibility of using different working substances in the thermodynamic cycles of these units, which will provide better efficiency of such tri-generation systems is shown. The calculations of steam turbine cycles and heat pump part on the selected working substances are conducted. It is proposed to use heat exchangers of plate type as the main exchangers in the combined processing. The developed method of thermal-hydraulic calculation of heat exchangers implemented in MathCad, which allows to evaluate the efficiency of plants of this type using the ε - NTU method. For the selected working substances of the steam part the optimal temperature of heat supply to the steam generator is determined. The results of thermodynamic and technical-economic analysis of the application of various working substances in the “organic” Rankine cycle of the steam turbine unit and the heat pump system of the heat and cold supply system are presented.

Fertility, immigration, and the fight against climate change.

PubMed

Earl, Jake; Hickey, Colin; Rieder, Travis N

2017-10-01

Several philosophers have recently argued that policies aimed at reducing human fertility are a practical and morally justifiable way to mitigate the risk of dangerous climate change. There is a powerful objection to such "population engineering" proposals: even if drastic fertility reductions are needed to prevent dangerous climate change, implementing those reductions would wreak havoc on the global economy, which would seriously undermine international antipoverty efforts. In this article, we articulate this economic objection to population engineering and show how it fails. We argue, first, that the economic objection paints an inaccurate picture of the complicated relationship between demographic change and economic growth, and second, that any untoward economic effects of fertility reduction can be mitigated with additional policies. Specifically, we argue that supplementing fertility reduction with policies that facilitate the emigration of younger people from developing nations to developed nations could allow for both global reductions in GHG emissions and continued economic stability. Further, we show that moral arguments against such unprecedented increases in immigration are unsuccessful. We conclude that population engineering is a practical and morally justifiable tool for addressing the twin evils of climate change and global poverty. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Future Water Scarcity and Potential Effects on Food Production under Climate Change in the Yellow River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Q.; Yin, Y. Y.; Liu, X.; Zhang, X.

2016-12-01

Increasing population and socio-economic development have put great pressure on water resources of the Yellow River Basin. The anticipated climate and socio-economic changes may further increase water stress. In this study, we assess water scarcity under climate change and various socio-economic pathways with an emphasis on the impact of water shortages on food production. The water demands in the 21st century are projected under the new developed Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs). The renewable water supply is estimated from the climate projections under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 8.5. The agricultural water use is assumed to have the lowest priority of all water consumers when water shortage occurs. The results show that the water demands in domestic and industrial sectors would grow rapidly. As more water resources would be occupied by domestic and industrial sectors, a portion of irrigated land would have to be converted to rain-fed agriculture which would lead to more than a reduction in food production under various socio-economic pathways. This study highlights the links between water, food and ecosystems in a changing environment and suggests that trade-offs should be considered when developing regional adaptation strategies.

Climate risk index for Italy.

PubMed

Mysiak, Jaroslav; Torresan, Silvia; Bosello, Francesco; Mistry, Malcolm; Amadio, Mattia; Marzi, Sepehr; Furlan, Elisa; Sperotto, Anna

2018-06-13

We describe a climate risk index that has been developed to inform national climate adaptation planning in Italy and that is further elaborated in this paper. The index supports national authorities in designing adaptation policies and plans, guides the initial problem formulation phase, and identifies administrative areas with higher propensity to being adversely affected by climate change. The index combines (i) climate change-amplified hazards; (ii) high-resolution indicators of exposure of chosen economic, social, natural and built- or manufactured capital (MC) assets and (iii) vulnerability, which comprises both present sensitivity to climate-induced hazards and adaptive capacity. We use standardized anomalies of selected extreme climate indices derived from high-resolution regional climate model simulations of the EURO-CORDEX initiative as proxies of climate change-altered weather and climate-related hazards. The exposure and sensitivity assessment is based on indicators of manufactured, natural, social and economic capital assets exposed to and adversely affected by climate-related hazards. The MC refers to material goods or fixed assets which support the production process (e.g. industrial machines and buildings); Natural Capital comprises natural resources and processes (renewable and non-renewable) producing goods and services for well-being; Social Capital (SC) addressed factors at the individual (people's health, knowledge, skills) and collective (institutional) level (e.g. families, communities, organizations and schools); and Economic Capital (EC) includes owned and traded goods and services. The results of the climate risk analysis are used to rank the subnational administrative and statistical units according to the climate risk challenges, and possibly for financial resource allocation for climate adaptation.This article is part of the theme issue 'Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'. © 2018 The Authors.

Climate risk index for Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mysiak, Jaroslav; Torresan, Silvia; Bosello, Francesco; Mistry, Malcolm; Amadio, Mattia; Marzi, Sepehr; Furlan, Elisa; Sperotto, Anna

2018-06-01

We describe a climate risk index that has been developed to inform national climate adaptation planning in Italy and that is further elaborated in this paper. The index supports national authorities in designing adaptation policies and plans, guides the initial problem formulation phase, and identifies administrative areas with higher propensity to being adversely affected by climate change. The index combines (i) climate change-amplified hazards; (ii) high-resolution indicators of exposure of chosen economic, social, natural and built- or manufactured capital (MC) assets and (iii) vulnerability, which comprises both present sensitivity to climate-induced hazards and adaptive capacity. We use standardized anomalies of selected extreme climate indices derived from high-resolution regional climate model simulations of the EURO-CORDEX initiative as proxies of climate change-altered weather and climate-related hazards. The exposure and sensitivity assessment is based on indicators of manufactured, natural, social and economic capital assets exposed to and adversely affected by climate-related hazards. The MC refers to material goods or fixed assets which support the production process (e.g. industrial machines and buildings); Natural Capital comprises natural resources and processes (renewable and non-renewable) producing goods and services for well-being; Social Capital (SC) addressed factors at the individual (people's health, knowledge, skills) and collective (institutional) level (e.g. families, communities, organizations and schools); and Economic Capital (EC) includes owned and traded goods and services. The results of the climate risk analysis are used to rank the subnational administrative and statistical units according to the climate risk challenges, and possibly for financial resource allocation for climate adaptation. This article is part of the theme issue `Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'.

Climate risk index for Italy

PubMed Central

Torresan, Silvia; Bosello, Francesco; Mistry, Malcolm; Amadio, Mattia; Marzi, Sepehr; Furlan, Elisa; Sperotto, Anna

2018-01-01

We describe a climate risk index that has been developed to inform national climate adaptation planning in Italy and that is further elaborated in this paper. The index supports national authorities in designing adaptation policies and plans, guides the initial problem formulation phase, and identifies administrative areas with higher propensity to being adversely affected by climate change. The index combines (i) climate change-amplified hazards; (ii) high-resolution indicators of exposure of chosen economic, social, natural and built- or manufactured capital (MC) assets and (iii) vulnerability, which comprises both present sensitivity to climate-induced hazards and adaptive capacity. We use standardized anomalies of selected extreme climate indices derived from high-resolution regional climate model simulations of the EURO-CORDEX initiative as proxies of climate change-altered weather and climate-related hazards. The exposure and sensitivity assessment is based on indicators of manufactured, natural, social and economic capital assets exposed to and adversely affected by climate-related hazards. The MC refers to material goods or fixed assets which support the production process (e.g. industrial machines and buildings); Natural Capital comprises natural resources and processes (renewable and non-renewable) producing goods and services for well-being; Social Capital (SC) addressed factors at the individual (people's health, knowledge, skills) and collective (institutional) level (e.g. families, communities, organizations and schools); and Economic Capital (EC) includes owned and traded goods and services. The results of the climate risk analysis are used to rank the subnational administrative and statistical units according to the climate risk challenges, and possibly for financial resource allocation for climate adaptation. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy’. PMID:29712797

Navigating Negative Conversations in Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mandia, S. A.; Abraham, J. P.; Dash, J. W.; Ashley, M. C.

2012-12-01

Politically charged public discussions of climate change often lead to polarization as a direct result of many societal, economic, religious and other factors which form opinions. For instance, the general public views climate change as a political discussion rather than a scientific matter. Additionally, many media sources such as websites and mainstream venues and persons have served to promote the "controversy". Scientists who engage in a public discourse of climate change often encounter politically charged environments and audiences. Traditional presentations of the science without attention paid to political, social, or economic matters are likely to worsen the existing divide. An international organization, the Climate Science Rapid Response Team (CSRRT) suggests a strategy that can be used to navigate potentially troublesome situations with divided audiences. This approach can be used during live lecture presentations, and radio, print, or television interviews. The strategy involves identifying alternative motivations for taking action on climate change. The alternative motivations are tailored to the audience and can range from national defense, economic prosperity, religious motivation, patriotism, energy independence, or hunting/fishing reasons. Similar messaging modification can be used to faithfully and accurately convey the importance of taking action on climate change but present the motivations in a way that will be received by the audience.

Climate Change Policy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jepma, Catrinus J.; Munasinghe, Mohan; Bolin, Foreword By Bert; Watson, Robert; Bruce, James P.

1998-03-01

There is increasing scientific evidence to suggest that humans are gradually but certainly changing the Earth's climate. In an effort to prevent further damage to the fragile atmosphere, and with the belief that action is required now, the scientific community has been prolific in its dissemination of information on climate change. Inspired by the results of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Second Assessment Report, Jepma and Munasinghe set out to create a concise, practical, and compelling approach to climate change issues. They deftly explain the implications of global warming, and the risks involved in attempting to mitigate climate change. They look at how and where to start action, and what organization is needed to be able to implement the changes. This book represents a much needed synopsis of climate change and its real impacts on society. It will be an essential text for climate change researchers, policy analysts, university students studying the environment, and anyone with an interest in climate change issues. A digestible version of the IPCC 1995 Economics Report - written by two of IPCC contributors with a Foreword by two of the editors of Climate Change 1995: Economics of Climate Change: i.e. has unofficial IPCC approval Focusses on policy and economics - important but of marginal interest to scientists, who are more likely to buy this summary than the full IPCC report itself Has case-studies to get the points across Separate study guide workbook will be available, mode of presentation (Web or book) not yet finalized

Model confirmation in climate economics

PubMed Central

Millner, Antony; McDermott, Thomas K. J.

2016-01-01

Benefit–cost integrated assessment models (BC-IAMs) inform climate policy debates by quantifying the trade-offs between alternative greenhouse gas abatement options. They achieve this by coupling simplified models of the climate system to models of the global economy and the costs and benefits of climate policy. Although these models have provided valuable qualitative insights into the sensitivity of policy trade-offs to different ethical and empirical assumptions, they are increasingly being used to inform the selection of policies in the real world. To the extent that BC-IAMs are used as inputs to policy selection, our confidence in their quantitative outputs must depend on the empirical validity of their modeling assumptions. We have a degree of confidence in climate models both because they have been tested on historical data in hindcasting experiments and because the physical principles they are based on have been empirically confirmed in closely related applications. By contrast, the economic components of BC-IAMs often rely on untestable scenarios, or on structural models that are comparatively untested on relevant time scales. Where possible, an approach to model confirmation similar to that used in climate science could help to build confidence in the economic components of BC-IAMs, or focus attention on which components might need refinement for policy applications. We illustrate the potential benefits of model confirmation exercises by performing a long-run hindcasting experiment with one of the leading BC-IAMs. We show that its model of long-run economic growth—one of its most important economic components—had questionable predictive power over the 20th century. PMID:27432964

ON IMPROVING THE ECONOMIC STATUS OF THE NEGRO.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

TOBIN, JAMES

EFFORTS TO ELIMINATE NEGRO POVERTY MUST BE UNDERTAKEN WITHIN A FAVORABLE OVERALL ECONOMIC CLIMATE, AND THE CURRENT CLIMATE IS NOT FAVORABLE BECAUSE MANPOWER AND PLANT CAPACITY ARE NOT FULLY UTILIZED. SUCH FACTORS AS LIMITED JOBS, EXAGGERATED JOB REQUIREMENTS, LOWER EARNING CAPACITY, DURATION OF UNEMPLOYMENT, FLUCTUATIONS OF THE BUSINESS CYCLE, AND…

Economic impacts of climate change on water resources in the coterminous United States

EPA Science Inventory

A national-scale simulation-optimization model was created to generate estimates of economic impacts associated with changes in water supply and demand as influenced by climate change. Water balances were modeled for the 99 assessment sub-regions, and are presented for 18 water r...

Future socio-economic impacts and vulnerabilities

Treesearch

Balgis Osman-Elasha; Neil Adger; Maria Brockhaus; Carol J. Pierce Colfer; Brent Sohngen; Tallaat Dafalla; Linda A. Joyce; Nkem Johnson; Carmenza Robledo

2009-01-01

The projected impacts of climate change are significant, and despite the uncertainties associated with current climate and ecosystem model projections, the associated changes in the provision of forest ecosystem services are expected to be substantial in many parts of the world. These impacts will present significant social and economic challenges for affected...

ISVEE 14 Yucatan 2015 14th Symposium of the International Society for Veterinary Epidemiology and Economics.

PubMed

de Anda, Jorge Hernández

2017-02-01

The 14th Symposium of the International Society for Veterinary Epidemiology and Economics (ISVEE 14) was held in Merida, Yucatan, Mexico during 3-7 November. 2015. The purpose of ISVEE 14 Yucatan 2015 was to provide a global forum for graduate students, postdoctoral fellows, junior and senior investigators, as well as health policymakers to exchange information that can advance the fields of veterinary epidemiology and economics, and other disciplines in the health and social sciences. The main theme of ISVEE 14 was Planning Our Future. Human population growth is predicted to increase nearly 50% to 11 billion by 2050, and climate change and changing land use can have an impact on local and global food systems, interactions among humans, wildlife and domestic animals, as well as local, regional, and global public health alerts. How can we help our systems of education, research, and public policy adapt? Are new veterinary graduates and epidemiology practitioners prepared to become active protagonists in the solution of health issues that affect humans and animal populations in a changing environment? What innovative research is needed to understand and enhance the food systems of the future? What are the expected roles or contributions of veterinarians or epidemiology practitioners on future climate change, food systems, and health? Is our profession or discipline leading One Health initiatives? Are there current or new models that make national veterinary services more efficacious and efficient for disease control and eradication? To help us answer these questions, the organizing committee of ISVEE 14 invited five distinguished keynote speakers to share their vision and innovative ideas on education, technological developments, research, and public policy of our future with a concentration in the following five areas: (i) One Health (Jonna Mazet), (ii) climate change (Bernard Bett), (iii) animal health economics (Jonathan Rushton), (iv) national veterinary services (Vitor Goncalves), and (v) animal welfare (Aline Schunemann). This Special Issue includes manuscripts from four of five keynote presentations delivered during ISVEE 14. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Climate, weather, socio-economic and electricity usage data for the residential and commercial sectors in FL, U.S.

PubMed

Mukhopadhyay, Sayanti; Nateghi, Roshanak

2017-08-01

This paper presents the data that is used in the article entitled "Climate sensitivity of end-use electricity consumption in the built environment: An application to the state of Florida, United States" (Mukhopadhyay and Nateghi, 2017) [1]. The data described in this paper pertains to the state of Florida (during the period of January 1990 to November 2015). It can be classified into four categories of (i) state-level electricity consumption data; (ii) climate data; (iii) weather data; and (iv) socio-economic data. While, electricity consumption data and climate data are obtained at monthly scale directly from the source, the weather data was initially obtained at daily-level, and then aggregated to monthly level for the purpose of analysis. The time scale of socio-economic data varies from monthly-level to yearly-level. This dataset can be used to analyze the influence of climate and weather on the electricity demand as described in Mukhopadhyay and Nateghi (2017) [1].

Socio-ecological Typologies for Understanding Adaptive Capacity of a Region to Natural Disasters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Surendran Nair, S.; Preston, B. L.; King, A. W.; Mei, R.

2015-12-01

It is expected that the frequency and magnitude of extreme climatic events will increase in coming decades with an anticipated increase in losses from climate hazards. In the Gulf Coastal region of the United States, climate hazards/disasters are common including hurricanes, drought and flooding. However, the capacity to adapt to extreme climatic events varies across the region. This adaptive capacity is linked to the magnitude of the extreme event, exposed infrastructure, and the socio-economic conditions across the region. This study uses hierarchical clustering to quantitatively integrates regional socioeconomic and biophysical factors and develop socio-ecological typologies (SET). The biophysical factors include climatic and topographic variables, and the socio-economic variables include human capital, social capital and man-made resources (infrastructure) of the region. The types of the SET are independent variables in a statistical model of a regional variable of interest. The methodology was applied to US Gulf States to evaluate the social and biophysical determinants of the regional variation in social vulnerability and economic loss to climate hazards. The results show that the SET explains much of the regional variation in social vulnerability, effectively capturing its determinants. In addition, the SET also explains of the variability in economic loss to hazards across of the region. The approach can thus be used to prioritize adaptation strategies to reduce vulnerability and loss across the region.

The economics of natural disasters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hallegatte, S.

2007-05-01

Mitigating natural disasters is probably more important for society than it can be inferred from direct losses. Total economic losses, indeed, can be much larger than direct losses, especially for large disasters, which affect the economy for extended periods of time (e.g., New Orleans after Katrina), and represent an important obstacle to economic development in certain regions (e.g. Central America). A series of recent modelling exercises highlights several findings. First, total economic losses due to an event are increasing nonlinearly as a function of its direct losses, because destructions both increase reconstruction needs and reduce reconstruction capacity. Second, endogenous economic dynamics has to be taken into account in the assessment of disaster consequences. More particularly, an economy in the expansion phase of its business cycle appears to be more vulnerable to extreme events than an economy in recession. This result is supported by the fact that worker availability is found to be one of the main obstacles to a rapid and efficient reconstruction. Third, natural disasters can create poverty traps for poor countries, which have a lower ability to fund and carry out reconstruction. As a consequence, climate change impacts from extreme events may be significant, and will depend on how societies are able to adapt their reconstruction capacity to new levels of risk.

Assessing bio-economic impacts and climate adaptation potential in Flanders

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gobin, A.

2009-04-01

According to Global Circulation Model predictions, Belgium is situated on a wedge between a wetter and drier climatic regime. Observed changes show an increase of 1.3°C during the past decade, a higher frequency of warm summer days and a 6% increase in rainfall with a pronounced rise in winter precipitation of about 25% as compared to the normal (1961-1990). Since agriculture is particularly sensitive to climate variability and occupies more than 61% of the land surface in Flanders, the rural landscape will be confronted with profound changes. A combination of climate scenarios, production models and economic evaluation was used to assess climate impacts on agricultural goods & services, adaptation costs due to production losses and adaptation options. Agro-ecosystems offer a wide range of productive, supporting, regulating and cultural services to society. Productive services relate to crop, animal and energy production, but will alter with climate change. Supporting services such as biodiversity, soil and water quality will be negatively affected by a higher climate variability, increasing erosion and sediment transport, enhancing the breakdown of soil organic matter, lowering soil quality and increasing runoff or leaching of agri-chemicals. The effect of a warmer climate on regulating services is an intensification of most nutrient cycles with increased emissions, which may be compensated for by carbon storage in faster and longer growing crops. The need for flooding areas may result in a net-reduction of the agricultural area. A higher probability of dry weather during summer time and a longer growing season may enlarge the attraction of recreating in rural areas. Knowledge on the interaction of agro-ecosystem services and climate change is required to formulate sustainable adaptation measures. Heat stress and water shortages lead to reduced crop growth, whereas increased CO2-concentrations and a prolonged growing season have a positive effect on crop yields. The interaction between these effects depends on the crop type. The impact on crop production was simulated with a dynamic vegetation model for eight crops (winter wheat, potatoes, sugar beet, fodder maize, grass, grain maize, cauliflower spring, cauliflower autumn), three soil types (loamy sand, loam, clay) and four climatic data series (historic and three cc-scenarios). The three climate change scenarios were selected on the basis of multi-criteria analysis of the PRUDENCE RCM runs. In total 3480 year simulations were executed with a daily modelling step. Pronounced yield losses mainly due to water shortages and heat stress occur for all climate change scenario's, to a lesser extent in the case of winter and spring crops. Yield losses of up to 30% are simulated for sugar beet, whereas winter wheat losses are only 6 % on loamy sand. High critical temperatures lead to heat stress, decreased fodder uptake, outbreaks of diseases and ultimately to animal production losses. Changes in animal production were calculated with a threshold model, whereby a daily maximum temperature of 30°C was taken as the production limit. Calculated animal production losses are up to 9 % for sheep, 8 % for cattle, 6 % for pigs and 3% for poultry. An economic prognosis of the technical productivity, the price effect, the required agricultural area and number of animals was used to estimate the potential productivity for 16 agricultural activities. The impact of climate change was included through aggregating the modelled production losses for Flanders and assuming the agricultural area, the number of animals and the prices constant to the economic prognosis. The total financial impacts are 0.1 % or 6.6 million euro for the first scenario, 1.5% or 71 million euro for the second scenario and 4.1% or 201 million euro for the third scenario. The results represent the acceptable cost of adaptation measures to maintain current efficiencies and production levels. Three gradations of adaptation were defined as different adoption rates. In total 22 adaptation measures were identified. Measures for crop production include cultivation techniques, prevention of pests and diseases, and sustainable use of genetic resources. Measures for animal production relate to stables, feed composition, selection of breeds and prevention of diseases. Measures for agro-ecosystem services other than production concern the sustainable use of natural resources and the quality of the environment and overall community support. The extent of adaptation depends on the farm's economic buoyancy, its vulnerability and the severity of climate variability. Climate change issues therefore have to be integrated in agricultural policy by means of instruments that allow for refined insurance against natural hazards, sustainable management of natural resources, sustaining agro-ecosystem services, supporting sustainable measures and combating vulnerability through adapting infrastructure. This requires sufficient technical and institutional capacity to develop timely information systems.

Comparison of Historically Severe Droughts and the Vulnerability of Agroecosystems in Mid-Continent USA: Lessons Learned

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olson, C.; Rippey, B.

2016-12-01

Extreme climatic events, drought, flooding, severe storms, tropical cyclones and winter storms have cost the USA billions of dollars. Although among major natural disasters in the last 100 years, severe drought occurrences are lower in terms of discrete events than that for other extreme events, the average cost per drought event exceeds all but those of severe storms and tropical cyclones and has significantly impacted the US agroecosystems upon which much of the domestic and export food markets depend1. The impacts from the 2012, 1988, and 1950's droughts are compared with the effects on cropland in the Mid-Continent US. Drought severity in 2012 and in 1988 were similar in terms of economic agricultural loss, 40 and 31 billion in cost-adjusted dollars, respectively. The 2012 drought covered a geographic areal extent similar to that of an earlier drought in the 1950's; roughly 2/3 of the central USA was impacted. However, the 2012 drought developed relatively rapidly in less than a year whereas the drought of the 1950's was marked by multiple years of extreme heat and lack of precipitation. Each of these severe droughts has resulted in significant losses, but the 2012 drought, while costly, could have been a larger economic disaster had the same conditions occurred in the 1950's or 1988. Investment in new technology, improvements in irrigation efficiency and advanced drainage systems, targeted soil conservation practices, and flexibility to adapt to conditions have improved the resilience of agroecosystems to drought in the intervening years. Droughts continue to occur, so a better understanding of climate and available climate services along with sustained investment in new technology will improve drought tolerance. The recent establishment of USDA Regional Climate Hubs to translate and deliver science-based, region-specific information for individual natural resource managers will enable climate-smart decision-making. Implementation is now possible at scales appropriate to identify regional and potentially local vulnerabilities and rapidly assess needs and capabilities. Downscaled climate projections developed by USDA partners and tailored to regional needs will become essential tools for future drought resilience. 1. Data trends derived from www.ncdc.noaa.gov/billions/summary-stats

Climate volatility deepens poverty vulnerability in developing countries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahmed, Syud A.; Diffenbaugh, Noah S.; Hertel, Thomas W.

2009-07-01

Extreme climate events could influence poverty by affecting agricultural productivity and raising prices of staple foods that are important to poor households in developing countries. With the frequency and intensity of extreme climate events predicted to change in the future, informed policy design and analysis requires an understanding of which countries and groups are going to be most vulnerable to increasing poverty. Using a novel economic-climate analysis framework, we assess the poverty impacts of climate volatility for seven socio-economic groups in 16 developing countries. We find that extremes under present climate volatility increase poverty across our developing country sample—particularly in Bangladesh, Mexico, Indonesia, and Africa—with urban wage earners the most vulnerable group. We also find that global warming exacerbates poverty vulnerability in many nations.

Modeling future flows of the Volta River system: Impacts of climate change and socio-economic changes.

PubMed

Jin, Li; Whitehead, Paul G; Appeaning Addo, Kwasi; Amisigo, Barnabas; Macadam, Ian; Janes, Tamara; Crossman, Jill; Nicholls, Robert J; McCartney, Matthew; Rodda, Harvey J E

2018-10-01

As the scientific consensus concerning global climate change has increased in recent decades, research on potential impacts of climate change on water resources has been given high importance. However in Sub-Saharan Africa, few studies have fully evaluated the potential implications of climate change to their water resource systems. The Volta River is one of the major rivers in Africa covering six riparian countries (mainly Ghana and Burkina Faso). It is a principal water source for approximately 24 million people in the region. The catchment is primarily agricultural providing food supplies to rural areas, demonstrating the classic water, food, energy nexus. In this study an Integrated Catchment Model (INCA) was applied to the whole Volta River system to simulate flow in the rivers and at the outlet of the artificial Lake Volta. High-resolution climate scenarios downscaled from three different Global Climate Models (CNRM-CM5, HadGEM2-ES and CanESM2), have been used to drive the INCA model and to assess changes in flow by 2050s and 2090s under the high climate forcing scenario RCP8.5. Results show that peak flows during the monsoon months could increase into the future. The duration of high flow could become longer compared to the recent condition. In addition, we considered three different socio-economic scenarios. As an example, under the combined impact from climate change from downscaling CNRM-CM5 and medium+ (high economic growth) socio-economic changes, the extreme high flows (Q5) of the Black Volta River are projected to increase 11% and 36% at 2050s and 2090s, respectively. Lake Volta outflow would increase +1% and +5% at 2050s and 2090s, respectively, under the same scenario. The effects of changing socio-economic conditions on flow are minor compared to the climate change impact. These results will provide valuable information assisting future water resource development and adaptive strategies in the Volta Basin. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Fast economic development accelerates biological invasions in China.

PubMed

Lin, Wen; Zhou, Guofa; Cheng, Xinyue; Xu, Rumei

2007-11-21

Increasing levels of global trade and intercontinental travel have been cited as the major causes of biological invasion. However, indirect factors such as economic development that affect the intensity of invasion have not been quantitatively explored. Herein, using principal factor analysis, we investigated the relationship between biological invasion and economic development together with climatic information for China from the 1970s to present. We demonstrate that the increase in biological invasion is coincident with the rapid economic development that has occurred in China over the past three decades. The results indicate that the geographic prevalence of invasive species varies substantially on the provincial scale, but can be surprisingly well predicted using the combination of economic development (R(2) = 0.378) and climatic factors (R(2) = 0.347). Economic factors are proven to be at least equal to if not more determinant of the occurrence of invasive species than climatic factors. International travel and trade are shown to have played a less significant role in accounting for the intensity of biological invasion in China. Our results demonstrate that more attention should be paid to economic factors to improve the understanding, prediction and management of biological invasions.

Biodiversity conservation in a changing climate: a review of threats and implications for conservation planning in Myanmar.

PubMed

Rao, Madhu; Saw Htun; Platt, Steven G; Tizard, Robert; Poole, Colin; Than Myint; Watson, James E M

2013-11-01

High levels of species richness and endemism make Myanmar a regional priority for conservation. However, decades of economic and political sanctions have resulted in low conservation investment to effectively tackle threats to biodiversity. Recent sweeping political reforms have placed Myanmar on the fast track to economic development-the expectation is increased economic investments focused on the exploitation of the country's rich, and relatively intact, natural resources. Within a context of weak regulatory capacity and inadequate environmental safeguards, rapid economic development is likely to have far-reaching negative implications for already threatened biodiversity and natural-resource-dependent human communities. Climate change will further exacerbate prevailing threats given Myanmar's high exposure and vulnerability. The aim of this review is to examine the implications of increased economic growth and a changing climate within the larger context of biodiversity conservation in Myanmar. We summarize conservation challenges, assess direct climatological impacts on biodiversity and conclude with recommendations for long-term adaptation approaches for biodiversity conservation.

The economics of soil C sequestration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alexander, P.; Paustian, K.; Smith, P.; Moran, D.

2014-12-01

Carbon is a critical component of soil vitality and of our ability to produce food. Carbon sequestered in soils also provides a further regulating ecosystem service, valued as the avoided damage from global climate change. We consider the demand and supply attributes that underpin and constrain the emergence of a market value for this vital global ecosystem service: markets being what economists regard as the most efficient institutions for allocating scarce resources to the supply and consumption of valuable goods. This paper considers how a potentially large global supply of soil carbon sequestration is reduced by economic and behavioural constraints that impinge on the emergence of markets, and alternative public policies that can efficiently transact demand for the service from private and public sector agents. In essence this is a case of significant market failure. In the design of alternative policy options we consider whether soil carbon mitigation is actually cost-effective relative to other measures in agriculture and elsewhere in the economy, and the nature of behavioural incentives that hinder policy options. We suggest that reducing cost and uncertainties of mitigation through soil-based measures is crucial for improving uptake. Monitoring and auditing processes will also be required to eventually facilitate wide-scale adoption of these measures.

Nitrogen Nutrition of Fruit Trees to Reconcile Productivity and Environmental Concerns.

PubMed

Carranca, Corina; Brunetto, Gustavo; Tagliavini, Massimo

2018-01-10

Although perennial fruit crops represent 1% of global agricultural land, they are of a great economic importance in world trade and in the economy of many regions. The perennial woody nature of fruit trees, their physiological stages of growth, the root distribution pattern, and the presence of herbaceous vegetation in alleys make orchard systems efficient in the use and recycling of nitrogen (N). The present paper intends to review the existing literature on N nutrition of young and mature deciduous and evergreen fruit trees with special emphasis to temperate and Mediterranean climates. There are two major sources of N contributing to vegetative tree growth and reproduction: root N uptake and internal N cycling. Optimisation of the use of external and internal N sources is important for a sustainable fruit production, as N use efficiency by young and mature fruit trees is generally lower than 55% and losses of fertilizer N may occur with the consequent economic and environmental concern. Organic alternatives to mineral N fertilizer like the application of manure, compost, mulching, and cover crops are scarcely used in perennial fruit trees, in spite of the fact that society's expectations call for more sustainable production techniques and the demand for organic fruits is increasing.

Modelling of the Installed Capacity of Landfill Power Stations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blumberga, D.; Kuplais, Ģ.; Veidenbergs, I.; Dāce, E.; Gušča, J.

2009-01-01

More and more landfills are being developed, in which biogas is produced and accumulated, which can be used for electricity production. Currently, due to technological reasons, electricity generation from biogas has a very low level of efficiency. In order to develop this type of energy production, it is important to find answers to various engineering, economic and ecological issues. The paper outlines the results obtained by creating a model for the calculations of electricity production in landfill power stations and by testing it in the municipal solid waste landfill "Daibe". The algorithm of the mathematical model for the operation of a biogas power station consists of four main modules: • initial data module, • engineering calculation module, • tariff calculation module, and • climate calculation module. As a result, the optimum capacity of the power station in the landfill "Daibe" is determined, as well as the analysis of the landfill's economic data and cost-effectiveness is conducted.

Allowable carbon emissions lowered by multiple climate targets.

PubMed

Steinacher, Marco; Joos, Fortunat; Stocker, Thomas F

2013-07-11

Climate targets are designed to inform policies that would limit the magnitude and impacts of climate change caused by anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases and other substances. The target that is currently recognized by most world governments places a limit of two degrees Celsius on the global mean warming since preindustrial times. This would require large sustained reductions in carbon dioxide emissions during the twenty-first century and beyond. Such a global temperature target, however, is not sufficient to control many other quantities, such as transient sea level rise, ocean acidification and net primary production on land. Here, using an Earth system model of intermediate complexity (EMIC) in an observation-informed Bayesian approach, we show that allowable carbon emissions are substantially reduced when multiple climate targets are set. We take into account uncertainties in physical and carbon cycle model parameters, radiative efficiencies, climate sensitivity and carbon cycle feedbacks along with a large set of observational constraints. Within this framework, we explore a broad range of economically feasible greenhouse gas scenarios from the integrated assessment community to determine the likelihood of meeting a combination of specific global and regional targets under various assumptions. For any given likelihood of meeting a set of such targets, the allowable cumulative emissions are greatly reduced from those inferred from the temperature target alone. Therefore, temperature targets alone are unable to comprehensively limit the risks from anthropogenic emissions.

How much water do we need for irrigation under Climate Change in the Mediterranean?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fader, Marianela; Alberte, Bondeau; Wolfgang, Cramer; Simon, Decock; Sinan, Shi

2014-05-01

Anthropogenic climate change will very likely alter the hydrological system of already water-limited agricultural landscapes around the Mediterranean. This includes the need for, as well as the availability of irrigation water. On top of that Mediterranean agroecosystems are very likely to be under strong pressure in the near future through changes in consumer demands and diets, increasing urbanization, demographic change, and new markets for agricultural exportation. As a first step to assess the water demand of the agricultural sector, we use an ecohydrological model (the Lund-Potsdam-Jena managed land model, LPJmL) to estimate current and future irrigation water requirements of this region, considering various climate and socio-economic scenarios. LPJmL is a process-based, agricultural and water balance model, where plant growth is ecophysiologically coupled with hydrological variables. For these simulations, the model was adapted to the Mediterranean region in terms of agrosystems as well as crop parameters, and a sensitivity analysis for the irrigation system efficiency was performed. Patterns of current irrigation water requirements differ strongly spatially within the Mediterranean region depending mainly on potential evapotranspiration, the combination of crops cultivated and the extension of irrigated areas. The simulations for the future indicate that the Mediterranean may need considerable additional amounts of irrigation water. However, the regional patterns differ strongly depending on changes in length of growing periods, changes in transpirational rate (temperature and precipitation change, CO2-fertilization), and the consideration of potential improvements in irrigation system efficiency.

Light valve based on nonimaging optics with potential application in cold climate greenhouses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valerio, Angel A.; Mossman, Michele A.; Whitehead, Lorne A.

2014-09-01

We have evaluated a new concept for a variable light valve and thermal insulation system based on nonimaging optics. The system incorporates compound parabolic concentrators and can readily be switched between an open highly light transmissive state and a closed highly thermally insulating state. This variable light valve makes the transition between high thermal insulation and efficient light transmittance practical and may be useful in plant growth environments to provide both adequate sunlight illumination and thermal insulation as needed. We have measured light transmittance values exceeding 80% for the light valve design and achieved thermal insulation values substantially exceeding those of traditional energy efficient windows. The light valve system presented in this paper represents a potential solution for greenhouse food production in locations where greenhouses are not feasible economically due to high heating cost.

The Effects of Climate Sensitivity and Carbon Cycle Interactions on Mitigation Policy Stringency

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Calvin, Katherine V.; Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin; Edmonds, James A.

2015-07-01

Climate sensitivity and climate-carbon cycle feedbacks interact to determine how global carbon and energy cycles will change in the future. While the science of these connections is well documented, their economic implications are not well understood. Here we examine the effect of climate change on the carbon cycle, the uncertainty in climate outcomes inherent in any given policy target, and the economic implications. We examine three policy scenarios—a no policy “Reference” (REF) scenario, and two policies that limit total radiative forcing—with four climate sensitivities using a coupled integrated assessment model. Like previous work, we find that, within a given scenario,more » there is a wide range of temperature change and sea level rise depending on the realized climate sensitivity. We expand on this previous work to show that temperature-related feedbacks on the carbon cycle result in more mitigation required as climate sensitivity increases. Thus, achieving a particular radiative forcing target becomes increasingly expensive as climate sensitivity increases.« less

Energy Market and Economic Impacts of S. 280, the Climate Stewardship and Innovation Act of 2007, Supplement to

EIA Publications

2007-01-01

This paper responds to a September 18, 2007, letter from Senators Barrasso, Inhofe, and Voinovich, seeking further energy and economic analysis to supplement information presented in the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) recent analysis of S.280, the Climate Stewardship and Innovation Act of 2007.

The future of hydropower planning modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haas, J.; Zuñiga, D.; Nowak, W.; Olivares, M. A.; Castelletti, A.; Thilmant, A.

2017-12-01

Planning the investment and operation of hydropower plants with optimization tools dates back to the 1970s. The focus used to be solely on the provision of energy. However, advances in computational capacity and solving algorithms, dynamic markets, expansion of renewable sources, and a better understanding of hydropower environmental impacts have recently led to the development of novel planning approaches. In this work, we provide a review, systematization, and trend analysis of these approaches. Further, through interviews with experts, we outline the future of hydropower planning modeling and identify the gaps towards it. We classified the found models along environmental, economic, multipurpose and technical criteria. Environmental interactions include hydropeaking mitigation, water quality protection and limiting greenhouse gas emissions from reservoirs. Economic and regulatory criteria consider uncertainties of fossil fuel prices and relicensing of water rights and power purchase agreements. Multipurpose considerations account for irrigation, tourism, flood protection and drinking water. Recently included technical details account for sedimentation in reservoirs and variable efficiencies of turbines. Additional operational considerations relate to hydrological aspects such as dynamic reservoir inflows, water losses, and climate change. Although many of the above criteria have been addressed in detail on a project-to-project basis, models remain overly simplistic for planning large power fleets. Future hydropower planning tools are expected to improve the representation of the water-energy nexus, including environmental and multipurpose criteria. Further, they will concentrate on identifying new sources of operational flexibility (e.g. through installing additional turbines and pumps) for integrating renewable energy. The operational detail will increase, potentially emphasizing variable efficiencies, storage capacity losses due to sedimentation, and the timing of inflows (which are becoming more variable under climate change). Finally, the relicensing of existing operations and planning new installations are subject to deep uncertainties that need to be captured.

Avoided economic impacts of energy demand changes by 1.5 and 2 °C climate stabilization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, Chan; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Takakura, Jun’ya; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Hijioka, Yasuaki

2018-04-01

Energy demand associated with space heating and cooling is expected to be affected by climate change. There are several global projections of space heating and cooling use that take into consideration climate change, but a comprehensive uncertainty of socioeconomic and climate conditions, including a 1.5 °C global mean temperature change, has never been assessed. This paper shows the economic impact of changes in energy demand for space heating and cooling under multiple socioeconomic and climatic conditions. We use three shared socioeconomic pathways as socioeconomic conditions. For climate conditions, we use two representative concentration pathways that correspond to 4.0 °C and 2.0 °C scenarios, and a 1.5 °C scenario driven from the 2.0 °C scenario with assumption in conjunction with five general circulation models. We find that the economic impacts of climate change are largely affected by socioeconomic assumptions, and global GDP change rates range from +0.21% to ‑2.01% in 2100 under the 4.0 °C scenario, depending on the socioeconomic condition. Sensitivity analysis that differentiates the thresholds of heating and cooling degree days clarifies that the threshold is a strong factor that generates these differences. Meanwhile, the impact of the 1.5 °C is small regardless of socioeconomic assumptions (‑0.02% to ‑0.06%). The economic loss caused by differences in socioeconomic assumption under the 1.5 °C scenario is much smaller than that under the 2 °C scenario, which implies that stringent climate mitigation can work as a risk hedge to socioeconomic development diversity.

Evaluating the relative impact of climate and economic changes on forest and agricultural ecosystem services in mountain regions.

PubMed

Briner, Simon; Elkin, Ché; Huber, Robert

2013-11-15

Provisioning of ecosystem services (ES) in mountainous regions is predicted to be influenced by i) the direct biophysical impacts of climate change, ii) climate mediated land use change, and iii) socioeconomic driven changes in land use. The relative importance and the spatial distribution of these factors on forest and agricultural derived ES, however, is unclear, making the implementation of ES management schemes difficult. Using an integrated economic-ecological modeling framework, we evaluated the impact of these driving forces on the provision of forest and agricultural ES in a mountain region of southern Switzerland. Results imply that forest ES will be strongly influenced by the direct impact of climate change, but that changes in land use will have a comparatively small impact. The simulation of direct impacts of climate change affects forest ES at all elevations, while land use changes can only be found at high elevations. In contrast, changes to agricultural ES were found to be primarily due to shifts in economic conditions that alter land use and land management. The direct influence of climate change on agriculture is only predicted to be substantial at high elevations, while socioeconomic driven shifts in land use are projected to affect agricultural ES at all elevations. Our simulation results suggest that policy schemes designed to mitigate the negative impact of climate change on forests should focus on suitable adaptive management plans, accelerating adaptation processes for currently forested areas. To maintain provision of agricultural ES policy needs to focus on economic conditions rather than on supporting adaptation to new climate. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Techno-economic analysis and climate change impacts of sugarcane biorefineries considering different time horizons.

PubMed

Junqueira, Tassia L; Chagas, Mateus F; Gouveia, Vera L R; Rezende, Mylene C A F; Watanabe, Marcos D B; Jesus, Charles D F; Cavalett, Otavio; Milanez, Artur Y; Bonomi, Antonio

2017-01-01

Ethanol production from lignocellulosic feedstocks (also known as 2nd generation or 2G ethanol process) presents a great potential for reducing both ethanol production costs and climate change impacts since agricultural residues and dedicated energy crops are used as feedstock. This study aimed at the quantification of the economic and environmental impacts considering the current and future scenarios of sugarcane biorefineries taking into account not only the improvements of the industrial process but also of biomass production systems. Technology assumptions and scenarios setup were supported by main companies and stakeholders, involved in the lignocellulosic ethanol production chain from Brazil and abroad. For instance, scenarios considered higher efficiencies and lower residence times for pretreatment, enzymatic hydrolysis, and fermentation (including pentoses fermentation); higher sugarcane yields; and introduction of energy cane (a high fiber variety of cane). Ethanol production costs were estimated for different time horizons. In the short term, 2G ethanol presents higher costs compared to 1st generation (1G) ethanol. However, in the long term, 2G ethanol is more competitive, presenting remarkable lower production cost than 1G ethanol, even considering some uncertainties regarding technology and market aspects. In addition, environmental assessment showed that both 1G (in the medium and long term) and 2G ethanol can reduce climate change impacts by more than 80% when compared to gasoline. This work showed the great potential of 2G ethanol production in terms of economic and environmental aspects. These results can support new research programs and public policies designed to stimulate both production and consumption of 2G ethanol in Brazil, accelerating the path along the learning curve. Some examples of mechanisms include: incentives to the establishment of local equipment and enzyme suppliers; and specific funding programs for the development and use of energy cane.

A Collaborative Approach to Flood Early Warning Systems In South East Westmoreland, Jamaica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hyman, T. A.

2015-12-01

Jamaica is prone to climatic, tectonic and technological hazards, with climatic hazards being the most prevalent. Specifically, flood events from cyclonic activity are the most common and widespread. Jamaica also experiences frequent flash floods, usually with insufficient lead time to enact efficient and targeted responses. On average, there is at least one disastrous flood every four years in Jamaica, and from 1800 to 2003 fifty-four major floods took place, causing 273 fatalities and economic losses of over US2 billion. Notably, the 1979 flood event in Western Jamaica caused 41 deaths and economic losses of US 27 Million, and which also has a 50 year return period. To date, no Flood Warning System exists in Western Jamaica and there are limited rain and river gauges. Additionally, responses to climatic events within South-East Westmoreland communities are ad hoc, with little coordination. Many of the hazard responses have been reactive and some stakeholders have delayed to their detriment.[1] The use of Flood Early Warning Systems (FEWS) to address such challenges is thus an option being considered by the community associations. The Rio Cobre FEWS in the parish of St. Catherine serves as a best practice example of community driven flood warning systems in Jamaica. This is because of the collaborative approach to flood risk, strengthened by institutional arrangements between the Meteorological Service, Water Resources Authority, Office of Disaster Management, Scientists and residents of the surrounding communities. The Community Associations in South-East Westmoreland are thus desirous of implementing a FEWS similar to the Rio Cobre FEWS. This paper thus aims to analyse the implementation process in terms of key stakeholders involved, governance approach and the socio-economic impact of a collaborative approach on infrastructure and livelihoods, in the case of future flooding events. [1] (especially in the case of Hurricane Ivan 2004)

Determinants of urban resource use and resilience: a comprehensive framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Romero-Lankao, P.; Bourgeron, P.; Gochis, D. J.; Rothman, D. S.; Wilhelmi, O.

2015-12-01

During the past decades urbanization has proceeded at unprecedented - yet varied - rates across urban areas globally. The social and environmental transformations implied by urban development have put many regions at risk of transforming the very characteristics that make them attractive and healthy. Meanwhile, climate change is adding new sources of risk and an array of uncertainties to the mix. These changes create risks that vary according to the characteristics of the demographic, economic, ecological, built-environment (technological) and governance dimensions of urbanization and urban areas as socioecological systems. However, few studies have explored the variation in these dimensions across urban areas. I will present a comprehensive analytical framework that explores, in urban areas, patterns of interplay, synergy and tradeoff between socio-demographic, economic, technological, ecological, and governance (SETEG) factors as they shape two issues, traditionally analyzed by separate disciplinary domains: resource use and resilience to climate hazards. Three questions guide this effort: 1) What indicators can be used to socio-demographic, economic, technological, ecological, and governance (SETEG) determinants of urban populations' resource use and resilience to climate hazards? 2) What indicators are important? 3) What combinations (i.e., tradeoffs, synergies) of causal factors better explain urban populations' resource use and resilience to hazards? The interplay between these factors as they shape a population's resource use and resilience is not exempted from synergies and tradeoffs that require careful analysis. Consider population density, a key indicator of urban form. Scholars have found that while more compact cities are more energy efficient and emit less GHG, heat stress is much worse in more compact cities. This begs the question of which combination of urban form factors need to be considered by urban planners when designing effective urban/environmental interventions. The framework, that builds on empirical work globally and in the cities of Buenos Aires, Mexico, Santiago and Mumbai, is intended to inform the design of more effective urban mitigation and adaptation policies.

Design options analysis for a zero energy block of flats in Athens, Greece

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soulti, Eleni

Human activities and to a smaller degree other reasons have led to climate change. This is evident in meteorological phenomena and natural procedures which are constantly subject to modifications. Recent studies prove that a great percentage of the CO2 emissions, which are partly responsible for the climate change, are produced by buildings. In fact, a big part of them belongs to the residential sector. Countries like UK are quite aware of this problem, its causes, its consequences, as well as of some remedies that can at least limit the damage. Therefore, they develop the appropriate legislation, in an effort to decrease the problems and limit its causes. Greece, on the other hand, has been quite ineffective until now. Hopefully the new legislation will constrain the causes of the problem, in all sectors, including the building domain. This study involves designing a zero energy block of flats in Athens, with climatic data and environmental parameters taken into consideration from the initial steps of the design procedure. Appropriate software has been used in order to observe the improvement of thermal comfort conditions by changing the building design and using various strategies for passive cooling and heating. The predicted consumption of electricity, heating and cooling loads have been calculated and renewable sources of energy have been used in order to meet those needs. The economical analysis demonstrated that this type of building, is not only energy efficient and thermally comfortable for its occupants, but also economically profitable, especially with regard to the benefit of the occupants and the environment. In fact, it is only 11.2% more expensive to construct such a building, while its energy performance reduces the amount of CO2 emissions. The aim is to widely implement this type of buildings, which can have a significant effect on environmental, economical and social development related issues.

Disaster risk, social vulnerability, and economic development.

PubMed

Ward, Patrick S; Shively, Gerald E

2017-04-01

This paper examines the extent to which economic development decreases a country's risk of experiencing climate-related disasters as well as the societal impacts of those events. The paper proceeds from the underlying assumption that disasters are not inherently natural, but arise from the intersection of naturally-occurring hazards within fragile environments. It uses data from the International Disaster Database (EM-DAT), representing country-year-level observations over the period 1980-2007. The study finds that low-income countries are significantly more at risk of climate-related disasters, even after controlling for exposure to climate hazards and other factors that may confound disaster reporting. Following the occurrence of a disaster, higher income generally diminishes a country's social vulnerability to such happenings, resulting in lower levels of mortality and morbidity. This implies that continued economic development may be a powerful tool for lessening social vulnerability to climate change. © 2017 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2017.

Farmers' Options to Address Water Scarcity in a Changing Climate: Case Studies from two Basins in Mediterranean Chile.

PubMed

Roco, Lisandro; Poblete, David; Meza, Francisco; Kerrigan, George

2016-12-01

Irrigated agriculture in Mediterranean areas faces tremendous challenges because of its exposure to hydroclimatic variability, increasing competition for water from different sectors, and the possibility of a climatic change. In this context, efficient management of water resources emerges as a critical issue. This requires the adoption of technological innovations, investment in infrastructure, adequate institutional arrangements, and informed decision makers. To understand farmers' perceptions and their implementation of climate change adaptation strategies with regards to water management, primary information was captured in the Limarí and Maule river basins in Chile. Farmers identified stressors for agriculture; climate change, droughts, and lack of water appeared as the most relevant stressors compared to others productive, economic, and institutional factors; revealing a rising relevance of climate related factors. While most producers perceived climate changes in recent years (92.9 %), a significant proportion (61.1 %) claim to have experienced drought, whereas only a fraction (31.9 %) have implemented a strategy to deal with this situation. Identified actions were classified in four groups: investments for water accumulation, modernization of irrigation systems, rationalization of water use, and partnership activities. Using a multinomial logit model these strategies were related to socioeconomic and productive characteristics. Results show that gender and farm size are relevant for investments, implementation and improvement of irrigation systems. For all the strategies described, access to weather information was a relevant element. The study provides empirical evidence of a recent increase in the importance assigned to climate factors by producers and adaptation options that can be supported by agricultural policy.

Farmers' Options to Address Water Scarcity in a Changing Climate: Case Studies from two Basins in Mediterranean Chile

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roco, Lisandro; Poblete, David; Meza, Francisco; Kerrigan, George

2016-12-01

Irrigated agriculture in Mediterranean areas faces tremendous challenges because of its exposure to hydroclimatic variability, increasing competition for water from different sectors, and the possibility of a climatic change. In this context, efficient management of water resources emerges as a critical issue. This requires the adoption of technological innovations, investment in infrastructure, adequate institutional arrangements, and informed decision makers. To understand farmers' perceptions and their implementation of climate change adaptation strategies with regards to water management, primary information was captured in the Limarí and Maule river basins in Chile. Farmers identified stressors for agriculture; climate change, droughts, and lack of water appeared as the most relevant stressors compared to others productive, economic, and institutional factors; revealing a rising relevance of climate related factors. While most producers perceived climate changes in recent years (92.9 %), a significant proportion (61.1 %) claim to have experienced drought, whereas only a fraction (31.9 %) have implemented a strategy to deal with this situation. Identified actions were classified in four groups: investments for water accumulation, modernization of irrigation systems, rationalization of water use, and partnership activities. Using a multinomial logit model these strategies were related to socioeconomic and productive characteristics. Results show that gender and farm size are relevant for investments, implementation and improvement of irrigation systems. For all the strategies described, access to weather information was a relevant element. The study provides empirical evidence of a recent increase in the importance assigned to climate factors by producers and adaptation options that can be supported by agricultural policy.

The causality analysis of climate change and large-scale human crisis

PubMed Central

Zhang, David D.; Lee, Harry F.; Wang, Cong; Li, Baosheng; Pei, Qing; Zhang, Jane; An, Yulun

2011-01-01

Recent studies have shown strong temporal correlations between past climate changes and societal crises. However, the specific causal mechanisms underlying this relation have not been addressed. We explored quantitative responses of 14 fine-grained agro-ecological, socioeconomic, and demographic variables to climate fluctuations from A.D. 1500–1800 in Europe. Results show that cooling from A.D. 1560–1660 caused successive agro-ecological, socioeconomic, and demographic catastrophes, leading to the General Crisis of the Seventeenth Century. We identified a set of causal linkages between climate change and human crisis. Using temperature data and climate-driven economic variables, we simulated the alternation of defined “golden” and “dark” ages in Europe and the Northern Hemisphere during the past millennium. Our findings indicate that climate change was the ultimate cause, and climate-driven economic downturn was the direct cause, of large-scale human crises in preindustrial Europe and the Northern Hemisphere. PMID:21969578

The causality analysis of climate change and large-scale human crisis.

PubMed

Zhang, David D; Lee, Harry F; Wang, Cong; Li, Baosheng; Pei, Qing; Zhang, Jane; An, Yulun

2011-10-18

Recent studies have shown strong temporal correlations between past climate changes and societal crises. However, the specific causal mechanisms underlying this relation have not been addressed. We explored quantitative responses of 14 fine-grained agro-ecological, socioeconomic, and demographic variables to climate fluctuations from A.D. 1500-1800 in Europe. Results show that cooling from A.D. 1560-1660 caused successive agro-ecological, socioeconomic, and demographic catastrophes, leading to the General Crisis of the Seventeenth Century. We identified a set of causal linkages between climate change and human crisis. Using temperature data and climate-driven economic variables, we simulated the alternation of defined "golden" and "dark" ages in Europe and the Northern Hemisphere during the past millennium. Our findings indicate that climate change was the ultimate cause, and climate-driven economic downturn was the direct cause, of large-scale human crises in preindustrial Europe and the Northern Hemisphere.

The Millennium Drought in southeast Australia (2001-2009): Natural and human causes and implications for water resources, ecosystems, economy, and society

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Dijk, Albert I. J. M.; Beck, Hylke E.; Crosbie, Russell S.; de Jeu, Richard A. M.; Liu, Yi Y.; Podger, Geoff M.; Timbal, Bertrand; Viney, Neil R.

2013-02-01

The "Millennium Drought" (2001-2009) can be described as the worst drought on record for southeast Australia. Adaptation to future severe droughts requires insight into the drivers of the drought and its impacts. These were analyzed using climate, water, economic, and remote sensing data combined with biophysical modeling. Prevailing El Niño conditions explained about two thirds of rainfall deficit in east Australia. Results for south Australia were inconclusive; a contribution from global climate change remains plausible but unproven. Natural processes changed the timing and magnitude of soil moisture, streamflow, and groundwater deficits by up to several years, and caused the amplification of rainfall declines in streamflow to be greater than in normal dry years. By design, river management avoided impacts on some categories of water users, but did so by exacerbating the impacts on annual irrigation agriculture and, in particular, river ecosystems. Relative rainfall reductions were amplified 1.5-1.7 times in dryland wheat yields, but the impact was offset by steady increases in cropping area and crop water use efficiency (perhaps partly due to CO2 fertilization). Impacts beyond the agricultural sector occurred (e.g., forestry, tourism, utilities) but were often diffuse and not well quantified. Key causative pathways from physical drought to the degradation of ecological, economic, and social health remain poorly understood and quantified. Combined with the multiple dimensions of multiyear droughts and the specter of climate change, this means future droughts may well break records in ever new ways and not necessarily be managed better than past ones.

Vulnerability assessment of skiing-dependent businesses to the effects of climate change in Banff and Jasper National Parks, Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reynolds, David Michael

This qualitative study examines the potential positive and negative socio-economic impacts that may emerge from the long-term effects of climate change on skiing-dependent businesses in Banff and Jasper National Parks, Canada. My goal was to determine whether or not skiing-related tourism in the parks in the 2020s and 2050s is more or less socio-economically vulnerable to the effects of climate change on snow cover, temperatures and ski season length at ski resorts in the parks. My study explored the level of awareness and personal perceptions of 60 skiing-dependent business managers about how the impact of climate change on ski resorts may influence future socio-economics of ski tourism businesses. I employed a vulnerability assessment approach and adopted some elements of grounded theory. My primary data sources are interviews with managers and the outcome of the geographical factors index (GFI). Supporting methods include: an analysis and interpretation of climate model data and an interpretation of the economic analysis of skiing in the parks. The interview data were sorted and coded to establish concepts and findings by interview questions, while the GFI model rated and ranked 24 regional ski resorts in the Canadian Cordillera. The findings answered the research questions and helped me conclude what the future socio-economic vulnerability may be of skiing-dependent businesses in the parks. The interviews revealed that managers are not informed about climate change and they have not seen any urgency to consider the effects on business. The GFI revealed that the ski resorts in the parks ranked in the top ten of 24 ski resorts in the Cordillera based on 14 common geographical factors. The economic reports suggest skiing is the foundation of the winter economy in the parks and any impact on skiing would directly impact other skiing-dependent businesses. Research indicates that the effects of climate change may have less economic impact on skiing-dependent businesses in Banff and Jasper in the 2020s and 2050s compared with other ski resorts located in the Cordillera. Recommendations are provided to explore future research opportunities and for skiing-dependent businesses and government organizations.

Understanding the drivers of the future water gap in the Indus-Ganges-Brahmaputra basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Immerzeel, W. W.; Wijngaard, R. R.; Biemans, H.; Lutz, A. F.

2017-12-01

The Indus, Ganges, and Brahmaputra (IGB) river systems provide water resources for the agricultural, domestic and industrial sectors sustaining the lives of about 700 million people. The region is globally a hotspot for climate change as the headwaters of these rivers are fed by melt water from snow and glaciers, both strongly influenced by temperature change. In addition, the hydrology in the region is determined by the monsoon and its future dynamics as a results of climate change remains very uncertain. Simultaneously, the population is projected to grow rapidly over the coming decades, which in combination with strong economic developments, will likely result in a rapid increase in water demand. In this study we attempt to quantify the future water gap in the IGB and attribute this water gap to climate change and socio-economic growth. For the upstream mountainous parts of the basins we use the SPHY model, which is calibrated based on historical streamflow and glacier mass balance data and forced by the latest CMIP5 future climate model data for RCP4.5 and 8.5. Output of this model feeds into the downstream LPJmL model, which allows assessment of downstream climate change impacts and projected changes in water demand as a result of socio-economic developments. The LPJmL model is run for different combinations of RCPs and Shared Socio Economic Pathways (SSPs). Our results show that for the IGB as a whole climate change will increase water availability in the coming decades, due to an overall, albeit uncertain, increase in monsoon precipitation in combination with a sustained melt water supply from the upstream parts of the basins. However, irrespective of the SSP and RCP, the water demand as a result of socio-economic growth is expected to increase extremely fast in the near future and this is likely to be the main adaptation challenge for the IGB as far as water shortages are concerned. Our results also show that regional and temporal variation in the water gap is large and that basin specific adaptation measures are required that take into account both socio-economic developments as well as climate change.

Land Change Trends in the Great Plains: Linkages to Climate Variability and Socioeconomic Drivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Drummond, M. A.

2009-12-01

Land use and land cover change have complex linkages to climate variability and change, socioeconomic driving forces, and land management challenges. To assess these land change dynamics and their driving forces in the Great Plains, we compare and contrast contemporary land conversion across seventeen ecoregions using Landsat remote sensing data and statistical analysis. Large area change analysis in agricultural regions is often hampered by the potential for substantial change detection error and the tendency for land conversions to occur in relatively small patches at the local level. To facilitate a regional scale analysis, a statistical sampling design of randomly selected 10-km by 10-km blocks is used in order to efficiently identify the types and rates of land conversions for four time periods between 1972 and 2000, stratified by relatively homogenous ecoregions. Results show a range of rates and processes of land change that vary by ecoregion contingent on the prevailing interactions between socioeconomic and environmental factors such as climate variability, water availability, and land quality. Ecoregions have differential climate and biophysical advantages for agricultural production and other land use change. Human actions further strengthen or dampen the characteristics of change through farm policy, technological advances, economic opportunities, population and demographic shifts, and surface and groundwater irrigation.

Harvesting Atlantic Cod under Climate Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oremus, K. L.

2016-12-01

Previous literature links the growth of a fishery to climate variability. This study uses an age-structured bioeconomic model to compare optimal harvest in the Gulf of Maine Atlantic cod fishery under a variable climate versus a static climate. The optimal harvest path depends on the relationship between fishery growth and the interest rate, with higher interest rates dictating greater harvests now at the cost of long-term stock sustainability. Given the time horizon of a single generation of fishermen under assumptions of a static climate, the model finds that the economically optimal management strategy is to harvest the entire stock in the short term and allow the fishery to collapse. However, if the biological growth of the fishery is assumed to vary with climate conditions, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation, there will always be pulses of high growth in the stock. During some of these high-growth years, the growth of the stock and its economic yield can exceed the growth rate of the economy even under high interest rates. This implies that it is not economically optimal to exhaust the New England cod fishery if NAO is included in the biological growth function. This finding may have theoretical implications for the management of other renewable yet exhaustible resources whose growth rates are subject to climate variability.

Projected change in global fisheries revenues under climate change

PubMed Central

Lam, Vicky W. Y.; Cheung, William W. L.; Reygondeau, Gabriel; Sumaila, U. Rashid

2016-01-01

Previous studies highlight the winners and losers in fisheries under climate change based on shifts in biomass, species composition and potential catches. Understanding how climate change is likely to alter the fisheries revenues of maritime countries is a crucial next step towards the development of effective socio-economic policy and food sustainability strategies to mitigate and adapt to climate change. Particularly, fish prices and cross-oceans connections through distant water fishing operations may largely modify the projected climate change impacts on fisheries revenues. However, these factors have not formally been considered in global studies. Here, using climate-living marine resources simulation models, we show that global fisheries revenues could drop by 35% more than the projected decrease in catches by the 2050 s under high CO2 emission scenarios. Regionally, the projected increases in fish catch in high latitudes may not translate into increases in revenues because of the increasing dominance of low value fish, and the decrease in catches by these countries’ vessels operating in more severely impacted distant waters. Also, we find that developing countries with high fisheries dependency are negatively impacted. Our results suggest the need to conduct full-fledged economic analyses of the potential economic effects of climate change on global marine fisheries. PMID:27600330

Ho Chi Minh City adaptation to increasing risk of coastal and fluvial floods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scussolini, Paolo; Lasage, Ralph

2016-04-01

Coastal megacities in southeast Asia are a hotspot of vulnerability to floods. In such contexts, the combination of fast socio-economic development and of climate change impacts on precipitation and sea level generates concerns about the flood damage to people and assets. This work focuses on Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, for which we estimate the present and future direct risk from river and coastal floods. A model cascade is used that comprises the Saigon river basin and the urban network, plus the land-use-dependent damaging process. Changes in discharge for five return periods are simulated, enabling the probabilistic calculation of the expected annual economic damage to assets, for differnt scenarios of global emissions, local socio-economic growth, and land subsidence, up to year 2100. The implementation of a range of adaptation strategies is simulated, including building dykes, elevating, creating reservoirs, managing water and sediment upstream, flood-proofing, halting groundwater abstraction. Results are presented on 1) the relative weight of each future driver in determining the flood risk of Ho Chi Minh, and 2) the efficiency and feasibility of each adaptation strategy.

Climate engineering and space

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schrogl, K.-U.; Summerer, L.

2016-12-01

This article provides a comprehensive look at climate engineering and space. Its starting point is that the States are failing to slow down global warming. The consequences for the environment and the economic and societal burden are uncontested. The priority to maintain the use of fossil resources might soon lead to the implementation of deliberate engineering measures to alter the climate instead of reducing the greenhouse gases. The article describes these currently discussed measures for such climate engineering. It will particularly analyse the expected contributions from space to these concepts. Based on this it evaluates the economic and political implications and finally tests the conformity of these concepts with space law.

Potential economic value of drought information to support early warning in Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quiroga, S.; Iglesias, A.; Diz, A.; Garrote, L.

2012-04-01

We present a methodology to estimate the economic value of advanced climate information for food production in Africa under climate change scenarios. The results aim to facilitate better choices in water resources management. The methodology includes 4 sequential steps. First two contrasting management strategies (with and without early warning) are defined. Second, the associated impacts of the management actions are estimated by calculating the effect of drought in crop productivity under climate change scenarios. Third, the optimal management option is calculated as a function of the drought information and risk aversion of potential information users. Finally we use these optimal management simulations to compute the economic value of enhanced water allocation rules to support stable food production in Africa. Our results show how a timely response to climate variations can help reduce loses in food production. The proposed framework is developed within the Dewfora project (Early warning and forecasting systems to predict climate related drought vulnerability and risk in Africa) that aims to improve the knowledge on drought forecasting, warning and mitigation, and advance the understanding of climate related vulnerability to drought and to develop a prototype operational forecasting.

Economic Impacts of Climate Change on Winter Tourism: Challenges for Ski Area Operators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Damm, A.; Köberl, J.; Prettenthaler, F.; Töglhofer, C.

2012-04-01

Increasing temperatures and snow scarce winter seasons pose a big challenge for the winter tourism industry. Changing natural snow reliability influences tourism demand and ski area operators are faced with an enhanced need of technical snow production. The goal of the present research work is to analyze the economic effects of technical snow production under future climate conditions. Snowmaking as an adaptation strategy to climate change impacts on the ski tourism industry is already taken into consideration in several studies from a scientific perspective concerning snowmaking potentials under future climate conditions and the impacts on ski season length (e.g. Scott et al. 2003; Scott & McBoyle 2007; Hennessy et al. 2008; Steiger 2010). A few studies considered economic aspects of technical snowmaking (e.g. Teich et al. 2007; Gonseth 2008). However, a detailed analysis of the costs and benefits of snowmaking under future climate and snow conditions based on sophisticated climate and snow models has not been carried out yet. The present study addresses the gap of knowledge concerning the economic profitability of prospective snowmaking requirements under future climate scenarios. We carry out a detailed cost-revenue analysis of snowmaking under current and future climate conditions for a case study site in Styria (Austria) using dynamic investment models. The starting point of all economic calculations is the daily demand for artificial snow that determines the requirements for additional snowmaking investments and additional operating costs. The demand for artificial snow is delivered by the snow cover model AMUNDSEN (see Strasser et al. 2011) and is driven by four climate scenarios. Apart from future climate conditions the profitability of snowmaking depends on changes in costs and visitor numbers. The results of a ski tourism demand model analyzing daily visitor numbers and their dependencies of prevailing weather conditions enter the cost-revenue analysis of snowmaking and enable the determination of the immediate benefits in terms of additional revenues of ski ticket sales. Furthermore, we conduct an econometric analysis of how snowmaking investments changed ski ticket prices in previous years, as the positive effects of snowmaking on snow reliability could be offset in the longer term by the effects of higher prices for skiing, possibly resulting in lower demand.

Environmental tipping points significantly affect the cost-benefit assessment of climate policies.

PubMed

Cai, Yongyang; Judd, Kenneth L; Lenton, Timothy M; Lontzek, Thomas S; Narita, Daiju

2015-04-14

Most current cost-benefit analyses of climate change policies suggest an optimal global climate policy that is significantly less stringent than the level required to meet the internationally agreed 2 °C target. This is partly because the sum of estimated economic damage of climate change across various sectors, such as energy use and changes in agricultural production, results in only a small economic loss or even a small economic gain in the gross world product under predicted levels of climate change. However, those cost-benefit analyses rarely take account of environmental tipping points leading to abrupt and irreversible impacts on market and nonmarket goods and services, including those provided by the climate and by ecosystems. Here we show that including environmental tipping point impacts in a stochastic dynamic integrated assessment model profoundly alters cost-benefit assessment of global climate policy. The risk of a tipping point, even if it only has nonmarket impacts, could substantially increase the present optimal carbon tax. For example, a risk of only 5% loss in nonmarket goods that occurs with a 5% annual probability at 4 °C increase of the global surface temperature causes an immediate two-thirds increase in optimal carbon tax. If the tipping point also has a 5% impact on market goods, the optimal carbon tax increases by more than a factor of 3. Hence existing cost-benefit assessments of global climate policy may be significantly underestimating the needs for controlling climate change.

Environmental tipping points significantly affect the cost−benefit assessment of climate policies

PubMed Central

Cai, Yongyang; Judd, Kenneth L.; Lenton, Timothy M.; Lontzek, Thomas S.; Narita, Daiju

2015-01-01

Most current cost−benefit analyses of climate change policies suggest an optimal global climate policy that is significantly less stringent than the level required to meet the internationally agreed 2 °C target. This is partly because the sum of estimated economic damage of climate change across various sectors, such as energy use and changes in agricultural production, results in only a small economic loss or even a small economic gain in the gross world product under predicted levels of climate change. However, those cost−benefit analyses rarely take account of environmental tipping points leading to abrupt and irreversible impacts on market and nonmarket goods and services, including those provided by the climate and by ecosystems. Here we show that including environmental tipping point impacts in a stochastic dynamic integrated assessment model profoundly alters cost−benefit assessment of global climate policy. The risk of a tipping point, even if it only has nonmarket impacts, could substantially increase the present optimal carbon tax. For example, a risk of only 5% loss in nonmarket goods that occurs with a 5% annual probability at 4 °C increase of the global surface temperature causes an immediate two-thirds increase in optimal carbon tax. If the tipping point also has a 5% impact on market goods, the optimal carbon tax increases by more than a factor of 3. Hence existing cost−benefit assessments of global climate policy may be significantly underestimating the needs for controlling climate change. PMID:25825719

78 FR 12807 - Call for Expert Reviewers to the U.S. Government Review of the Working Group III Contribution to...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-02-25

... on Climate Change (IPCC), Mitigation of Climate Change SUMMARY: The United States Global Change... Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Mitigation of Climate Change. The United Nations Environment Programme...-economic information for understanding the scientific basis of climate change, potential impacts, and...

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Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-09-26

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Assessing the economic approaches to climate-forest policies: a critical survey

Treesearch

Grace Y. Wong; R. Janaki R.

2002-01-01

The linkage between global climate change and forests have assumed political prominence as forest sinks are now acknowledged as a means for off-setting carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions under the Kyoto Protocol targets. As such, policies to stimulate forest carbon sequestration in an open economy will require varying levels of economic information...

Projecting trends in agronomic, economic, and environmental performance of Canadian dairy farms under future climate conditions

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Climate change is expected to increase agricultural productivity in Canada as in many northern areas in the world. This will likely come along with changes in the environmental and economic performance of dairy farms, one of the most important agricultural sectors in Canada. The objective of this s...

CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION: A WORKSHOP REPORT

EPA Science Inventory

This paper, "Coping With Climate Change", argues that adaptation is an important strategy for protecting human health, ecosystems, and economic activity as the climate changes. Adaptation is an essential component of any portfolio of actions that comprise U.S. climate change poli...

Vulnerability of southern plains agriculture to climate change

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Climate is a key driver for all ecological and economic systems; therefore, climate change introduces additional uncertainty and vulnerability into these systems. Agriculture represents a major land use that is critical to the survival of human societies and it is highly vulnerable to climate. Clima...

Snow Based Winter Tourism and Kinds of Adaptations to Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Breiling, M.

2009-04-01

Austria is the most intensive winter tourism country in the world with some 4% contribution in the national GNP. Snow based winter tourism became the lead economy of mountain areas, covering two thirds of the country and is by far economically more important than agriculture and forestry. While natural snow was the precondition for the establishment of winter tourism, artificial snow is nowadays the precondition to maintain winter tourism in the current economic intensity. Skiing originally low tech, is developing increasingly into high tech. While skiing was comparatively cheap in previous days due to natural snow, skiing is getting more expensive and exclusive for a higher income class due to the relative high production costs. Measures to adapt to a warmer climate can be divided into three principle types: physical adaptation, technical adaptation - where artificial snow production plays a major role - and social adaptation. It will be discussed under which conditions each adaptation type seems feasible in dependence of the level of warming. In particular physical and technical adaptations are related to major investments. Practically every ski resort has to decide about what is an appropriate, economically cost efficient level of adaptation. Adapting too much reduces profits. Adapting too little does not bring enough income. The optimal level is often not clear. In many cases public subsidies help to collect funds for adaptation and to keep skiing profitable. The possibility to adapt on local, regional or on national scales will depend on the degree of warming, the future price of artificial snow production and the public means foreseen to support the winter tourism industry.

Placement and efficiency effects on radiative forcing of solar installations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Burg, Brian R.; Ruch, Patrick; Paredes, Stephan

2015-09-28

The promise for harnessing solar energy being hampered by cost, triggered efforts to reduce them. As a consequence low-efficiency, low-cost photovoltaics (PV) panels prevail. Conversely, in the traditional energy sector efficiency is extremely important due to the direct costs associated to fuels. This also affects solar energy due to the radiative forcing caused by the dark solar panels. In this paper we extend the concept of energy payback time by including the effect of albedo change, which gives a better assessment of the system sustainability. We present an analysis on the short and medium term climate forcing effects of differentmore » solar collectors in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia and demonstrate that efficiency is important to reduce the collector area and cost. This also influences the embodied energy and the global warming potential. We show that a placement of a high concentration photovoltaic thermal solar power station outside of the city using a district cooling system has a double beneficial effect since it improves the solar conversion efficiency and reduces the energy demand for cooling in the city. We also explain the mechanisms of the current economic development of solar technologies and anticipate changes.« less

Public Perception of Climate Risk: The Case of Greece

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Voskaki, Asimina; Tsermenidis, Konstantinos

2015-04-01

Climate change is generally considered as one of the greatest challenges our world is facing. In the case of Greece climatic change seems to be associated with sea level rise, increase in temperature, variation in precipitation patterns, and extreme weather events. As a result of climate pattern changes a series of consequences are expected in areas involving build environment, infrastructures, health and various sectors of the economy. Even though climate change is probably going to affect Greece in terms of human welfare and economic growth, public perception and attitude do not always identify it as the most important, amongst others, environmental area of concern, or compared to various socio-economic issues. Considering that topics related to climate change involve a certain degree of uncertainty public perception seems to be important when dealing with adaptation strategies to manage or prevent risks from climate change impact and therefore people's reaction to risks seem to be an issue of great importance in future policy planning and implementation. The key issue of this paper is to investigate and analyse public perception in Greece as regards to climate change risk. Through a questionnaire survey this research investigates people's understanding, specific knowledge, opinion, awareness, emotions, behavior with regards to climate change risks and their willingness to pay in order to minimize or prevent risk. In addition, it examines people's willingness to alter current lifestyle and adapt to a changing climate. The information derived from survey data concern the topics and the perceived importance of the causes of the climate change between certain groups of people; the analysis of the data is focused on the correlation between perceived risk and knowledge about the issues involved. Rather than applying a specific technique extensively, we choose to deploy a number of methodologies with which we are able to draw different aspects from the data. To this end, we apply descriptive statistics, cluster analysis techniques and logistic regression. Descriptive statistics result in some general conclusions from the data concerning sex, age, location, residential characteristics, level of education and level of actual knowledge. Cluster analysis gives us an intuitive on how the subjects are grouped in certain profiles, according to their attitude towards climate change and the associated risk. Logistic regression provides a probabilistic approach in order to interpret the way the subjects respond to our questions in relation to their specific background. Based on analysis results, this paper, amongst others, points out the vulnerability of Greek society to climate risk and highlights factors that influence individual perception; in addition it identifies drivers of behavior change that can facilitate efficient adaptation plans for future use. The results of this research could be used as a basis for understanding public responses to climate change risk and for facilitating communication between experts, policy makers and communities.

Renewable Energies and Enhanced Energy Efficiencies: Mitigation/Adaptation Measures to Climate Change Impacts on Cyprus and in the Eastern Mediterranean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lange, Manfred

2010-05-01

The Eastern Mediterranean in general and Cyprus in particular are considered "hot spots" of future climate change. This will become manifest through an increase in the number and duration of drought events and extended hot-spells. The need to cope with the impacts of climate change will lead to enhanced requirements for cooling of private and public housing and growing demands for potable water derived from seawater desalination. This in turn will cause increasing pressures on electricity production and will result in additional strain on the energy sector in the region. For Cyprus, the current electricity production is entirely based on fossil-fuel fired power plants. However, the use of conventional energy sources is clearly an undesirable option. It enhances the economic burden on energy consumers and at the same time increases Cyprus' dependency on external providers of petroleum products. Moreover, it leads to growing emissions of carbon dioxide and thereby worsens Cyprus' already challenged greenhouse gas emission budget. While current emissions amount to about 9.9 Mill. t of CO2, the total allowance according to EU regulations lies at 5.5 Mill. t. The current building stock on Cyprus lacks basic measures for energy efficiency. This is particularly noteworthy with regard to insufficient insulation of buildings, which causes significant amounts of energy to be expanded for cooling. In light of these facts, an increased use of renewable energies and measures to enhance energy efficiencies in the built environment constitute important elements of a stringent and effective mitigation/adaptation strategy to climate change. The Eastern Mediterranean is among the most suitable location for the utilization of solar energy in Europe. A global direct normal irradiance of more than 1 800 kWh/m2 on Cyprus offers a renewable electricity potential of app. 20 to 23 TWh/yr when concentrated solar power (CSP) technology is employed. With regard to enhanced energy efficiency in buildings, new and innovative materials will have to be introduced. This includes advanced materials based on nanotechnology aimed to increase reflectivity and decrease heat absorption of external walls in order to reduce heat uptake by the building and thereby reduce cooling loads. This paper will give more detail on possible mitigation/adaptation strategies to climate change and will explore their possible synergistic potentials. While focusing on Cyprus, the conclusions will be readily applicable to neighboring countries in the Eastern Mediterranean.

Health, Energy Efficiency and Climate Change

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Climate change is becoming a driving force for improving energy efficiency because saving energy can help reduce the greenhouse gas emissions that contribute to climate change. However, it is important to balance energy saving measures with ventilation...

A Vulnerability-Benefit Analysis of Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Delman, E. M.; Stephenson, S. R.; Davis, S. J.; Diffenbaugh, N. S.

2015-12-01

Although we can anticipate continued improvements in our understanding of future climate impacts, the central challenge of climate change is not scientific, but rather political and economic. In particular, international climate negotiations center on how to share the burden of uncertain mitigation and adaptation costs. We expose the relative economic interests of different countries by assessing and comparing their vulnerability to climate impacts and the economic benefits they derive from the fossil fuel-based energy system. Vulnerability refers to the propensity of humans and their assets to suffer when impacted by hazards, and we draw upon the results from a number of prior studies that have quantified vulnerability using multivariate indices. As a proxy for benefit, we average CO2 related to each country's extraction of fossil fuels, production of CO2 emissions, and consumption of goods and services (Davis et al., 2011), which should reflect benefits accrued in proportion to national economic dependence on fossil fuels. We define a nondimensional vulnerability-benefit ratio for each nation and find a large range across countries. In general, we confirm that developed and emerging economies such as the U.S., Western Europe, and China rely heavily on fossil fuels and have substantial resources to respond to the impacts of climate change, while smaller, less-developed economies such as Sierra Leone and Vanuatu benefit little from current CO2 emissions and are much more vulnerable to adverse climate impacts. In addition, we identify some countries with a high vulnerability and benefit, such as Iraq and Nigeria; conversely, some nations exhibit both a low vulnerability and benefit, such as New Zealand. In most cases, the ratios reflect the nature of energy-climate policies in each country, although certain nations - such as the United Kingdom and France - assume a level of responsibility incongruous with their ratio and commit to mitigation policy despite relatively low vulnerability and moderately high benefit. Examining current national policies in the context of the vulnerability-benefit ratios suggests that international cooperation to address climate change may require demonstrating the interdependencies of countries whose short-term economic interests seem otherwise divergent.

Designing Flood Management Systems for Joint Economic and Ecological Robustness

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spence, C. M.; Grantham, T.; Brown, C. M.; Poff, N. L.

2015-12-01

Freshwater ecosystems across the United States are threatened by hydrologic change caused by water management operations and non-stationary climate trends. Nonstationary hydrology also threatens flood management systems' performance. Ecosystem managers and flood risk managers need tools to design systems that achieve flood risk reduction objectives while sustaining ecosystem functions and services in an uncertain hydrologic future. Robust optimization is used in water resources engineering to guide system design under climate change uncertainty. Using principles introduced by Eco-Engineering Decision Scaling (EEDS), we extend robust optimization techniques to design flood management systems that meet both economic and ecological goals simultaneously across a broad range of future climate conditions. We use three alternative robustness indices to identify flood risk management solutions that preserve critical ecosystem functions in a case study from the Iowa River, where recent severe flooding has tested the limits of the existing flood management system. We seek design modifications to the system that both reduce expected cost of flood damage while increasing ecologically beneficial inundation of riparian floodplains across a wide range of plausible climate futures. The first robustness index measures robustness as the fraction of potential climate scenarios in which both engineering and ecological performance goals are met, implicitly weighting each climate scenario equally. The second index builds on the first by using climate projections to weight each climate scenario, prioritizing acceptable performance in climate scenarios most consistent with climate projections. The last index measures robustness as mean performance across all climate scenarios, but penalizes scenarios with worse performance than average, rewarding consistency. Results stemming from alternate robustness indices reflect implicit assumptions about attitudes toward risk and reveal the tradeoffs between using structural and non-structural flood management strategies to ensure economic and ecological robustness.

Global non-linear effect of temperature on economic production.

PubMed

Burke, Marshall; Hsiang, Solomon M; Miguel, Edward

2015-11-12

Growing evidence demonstrates that climatic conditions can have a profound impact on the functioning of modern human societies, but effects on economic activity appear inconsistent. Fundamental productive elements of modern economies, such as workers and crops, exhibit highly non-linear responses to local temperature even in wealthy countries. In contrast, aggregate macroeconomic productivity of entire wealthy countries is reported not to respond to temperature, while poor countries respond only linearly. Resolving this conflict between micro and macro observations is critical to understanding the role of wealth in coupled human-natural systems and to anticipating the global impact of climate change. Here we unify these seemingly contradictory results by accounting for non-linearity at the macro scale. We show that overall economic productivity is non-linear in temperature for all countries, with productivity peaking at an annual average temperature of 13 °C and declining strongly at higher temperatures. The relationship is globally generalizable, unchanged since 1960, and apparent for agricultural and non-agricultural activity in both rich and poor countries. These results provide the first evidence that economic activity in all regions is coupled to the global climate and establish a new empirical foundation for modelling economic loss in response to climate change, with important implications. If future adaptation mimics past adaptation, unmitigated warming is expected to reshape the global economy by reducing average global incomes roughly 23% by 2100 and widening global income inequality, relative to scenarios without climate change. In contrast to prior estimates, expected global losses are approximately linear in global mean temperature, with median losses many times larger than leading models indicate.

How to take care of nurses in your organization: two types of exchange relationships compared.

PubMed

Veld, Monique; Van De Voorde, Karina

2014-04-01

To explore the relationships between climate for well-being, economic and social exchange, affective ward commitment and job strain among nurses in the Netherlands. This study focuses on the immediate work environment of nurses by exploring the way nurse perceptions about the extent to which the ward values and cares for their welfare influence their levels of affective ward commitment and job strain. Second, this study extends previous research on exchange relationships by examining the potential differential impact of social and economic exchange relationships on commitment and job strain. A cross-sectional survey among nurses. The study was conducted in the Netherlands in 2011. Validated measures of climate for well-being, social exchange, economic exchange, ward commitment and job strain were used. Hypotheses were tested using regression analyses. MacKinnon et al.'s (2007) guidelines to assess mediation were used. The response rate was 41% (271 questionnaires). The results show that climate for well-being positively influences social exchange relationships, which are in turn associated with enhanced ward commitment and reduced strain. Climate for well-being negatively influences evaluations of economic exchange, which are in turn negatively related to ward commitment. This study shows that nurses use the information available in their immediate work environment to evaluate their exchange relationship with the organization. Second, the findings point towards the importance of economic and social exchange relationships as a mechanism between climate for well-being on the one hand and affective ward commitment and job strain on the other hand. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Global non-linear effect of temperature on economic production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burke, Marshall; Hsiang, Solomon M.; Miguel, Edward

2015-11-01

Growing evidence demonstrates that climatic conditions can have a profound impact on the functioning of modern human societies, but effects on economic activity appear inconsistent. Fundamental productive elements of modern economies, such as workers and crops, exhibit highly non-linear responses to local temperature even in wealthy countries. In contrast, aggregate macroeconomic productivity of entire wealthy countries is reported not to respond to temperature, while poor countries respond only linearly. Resolving this conflict between micro and macro observations is critical to understanding the role of wealth in coupled human-natural systems and to anticipating the global impact of climate change. Here we unify these seemingly contradictory results by accounting for non-linearity at the macro scale. We show that overall economic productivity is non-linear in temperature for all countries, with productivity peaking at an annual average temperature of 13 °C and declining strongly at higher temperatures. The relationship is globally generalizable, unchanged since 1960, and apparent for agricultural and non-agricultural activity in both rich and poor countries. These results provide the first evidence that economic activity in all regions is coupled to the global climate and establish a new empirical foundation for modelling economic loss in response to climate change, with important implications. If future adaptation mimics past adaptation, unmitigated warming is expected to reshape the global economy by reducing average global incomes roughly 23% by 2100 and widening global income inequality, relative to scenarios without climate change. In contrast to prior estimates, expected global losses are approximately linear in global mean temperature, with median losses many times larger than leading models indicate.

Dairy goat production systems: status quo, perspectives and challenges.

PubMed

Escareño, Luis; Salinas-Gonzalez, Homero; Wurzinger, Maria; Iñiguez, Luiz; Sölkner, Johann; Meza-Herrera, Cesar

2013-01-01

Goat production concentrated in developing countries (tropics, dry areas), contributes largely to the livelihoods of low and medium income farmers. Farming systems in these areas have evolved to cope with the formidable constraints imposed by harsh natural and economic conditions by adapting integrated crop/livestock production strategies. In Asia, Africa and Latin America, due to its almost exclusive extensive nature, goat production relies mainly on grazing on communal lands that hardly provide the minimum nutrient requirements due to overstocking and degradation. While some of these production systems are becoming semi-intensive, appropriate breeding strategies should be designed to promote conservation and improvement of their unique attributes, such as adaptability, water use efficiency and suitability under harsh climatic conditions. In Europe, dairy goat production is more common around the Mediterranean basin, where it is important from an economic, environmental and sociological perspective to the Mediterranean countries: Spain, France, Italy and Greece. Europe owns only 5.1 % of the world's dairy goat herds, but produces 15.6 % of the world's goat milk; this is the only continent where goat milk has such an economic importance and organization. In developing countries the dairy goat sector requires a systemic approach, whereby nutrition, animal health, breeding, know-how, inputs and technologies must be assembled. This would allow the optimization of natural and local resources and would promote the transition from a risk reduction strategy towards an increased productivity strategy. Such an increase would privilege production efficiency based on clean, green and ethical practices for responsible innovation.

Energy efficiency through integrated environmental management.

PubMed

Benromdhane, Souad Ahmed

2015-05-01

Integrated environmental management became an economic necessity after industrial development proved to be unsustainable without consideration of environmental direct and indirect impacts. Energy dependency and air pollution along with climate change grew into major challenges facing developed and developing countries alike. Thus, a new global market structure emerged and changed the way we do trade. The search intensified for alternatives to petroleum. However, scientists, policy makers, and environmental activists agreed to focus on strategic conservation and optimization of energy use. Environmental concerns will remain partially unaddressed with the current pace of consumption because greenhouse gas emissions will continue to rise with economic growth. This paper discusses energy efficiency, steady integration of alternative sources, and increased use of best available technologies. Energy criteria developed for environmental labeling certification are presented. Our intention is to encourage manufacturers and service providers to supply consumers with less polluting and energy-consuming goods and services, inform consumers of the environmental and energy impacts, and thereby instill sustainable and responsible consumption. As several programs were initiated in developed countries, environmental labeling requirements created barriers to many exports manufactured in developing countries, affecting current world trade and putting more pressure on countries to meet those requirements. Defining an institutional and legal framework of environmental labeling is a key challenge in implementing such programs for critical economic sectors like tourism, textiles, and food production where energy needs are the most important aspect to control. A case study of Tunisia and its experience with eco-labeling is presented.

Modelling impacts of climate change and socio-economic change on the Ganga, Brahmaputra, Meghna, Hooghly and Mahanadi river systems in India and Bangladesh.

PubMed

Whitehead, Paul G; Jin, Li; Macadam, Ian; Janes, Tamara; Sarkar, Sananda; Rodda, Harvey J E; Sinha, Rajiv; Nicholls, Robert J

2018-09-15

The Ganga-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) River System, the associated Hooghly River and the Mahanadi River System represent the largest river basins in the world serving a population of over 780 million. The rivers are of vital concern to India and Bangladesh as they provide fresh water for people, agriculture, industry, conservation and support the Delta System in the Bay of Bengal. Future changes in both climate and socio-economics have been investigated to assess whether these will alter river flows and water quality. Climate datasets downscaled from three different Global Climate Models have been used to drive a daily process based flow and water quality model. The results suggest that due to climate change the flows will increase in the monsoon period and also be enhanced in the dry season. However, once socio-economic changes are also considered, increased population, irrigation, water use and industrial development reduce water availability in drought conditions, threatening water supplies and posing a threat to river and coastal ecosystems. This study, as part of the DECCMA (Deltas, vulnerability and Climate Change: Migration and Adaptation) project, also addresses water quality issues, particularly nutrients (N and P) and their transport along the rivers and discharge into the Delta System. Climate will alter flows, increasing flood flows and changing pollution dilution factors in the rivers, as well as other key processes controlling water quality. Socio-economic change will affect water quality, as water diversion strategies, increased population and industrial development alter the water balance and enhance fluxes of nutrients from agriculture, urban centers and atmospheric deposition. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A high-resolution, empirical approach to climate impact assessment for regulatory analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Delgado, M.; Simcock, J. G.; Greenstone, M.; Hsiang, S. M.; Kopp, R. E.; Carleton, T.; Hultgren, A.; Jina, A.; Rising, J. A.; Nath, I.; Yuan, J.; Rode, A.; Chong, T.; Dobbels, G.; Hussain, A.; Wang, J.; Song, Y.; Mohan, S.; Larsen, K.; Houser, T.

2017-12-01

Recent breakthroughs in computing, data availability, and methodology have precipitated significant advances in the understanding of the relationship between climate and socioeconomic outcomes [1]. And while the use of estimates of the global marginal costs of greenhouse gas emissions (e.g. the SCC) are a mandatory component of regulatory policy in many jurisdictions, existing SCC-IAMs have lagged advances in impact assessment and valuation [2]. Recent work shows that incorporating high spatial and temporal resolution can significantly affect the observed relationships of economic outcomes to climate and socioeconomic factors [3] and that maintaining this granularity is critical to understanding the sensitivity of aggregate measures of valuation to inequality and risk adjustment methodologies [4]. We propose a novel framework that decomposes uncertainty in the SCC along multiple sources, including aggregate climate response parameters, the translation of global climate into local weather, the effect of weather on physical and economic systems, human and macro-economic responses, and impact valuation methodologies. This work extends Hsiang et al. (2017) [4] to directly estimate local response functions for multiple sectors in each of 24,378 global regions and to estimate impacts at this resolution daily, incorporating endogenous, empirically-estimated adaptation and costs. The goal of this work is to provide insight into the heterogeneity of climate impacts and to work with other modeling teams to enhance the empirical grounding of integrated climate impact assessment in more complex energy-environment-economics models. [1] T. Carleton and S. Hsiang (2016), DOI: 10.1126/science.aad9837. [2] National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine (2017), DOI: 10.17226/24651. [3] Burke, M., S. Hsiang, and E. Miguel (2015), DOI: 10.1038/nature15725. [4] S. Hsiang et al. (2017), DOI: 10.1126/science.aal4369.

Biophysical and Economic Uncertainty in the Analysis of Poverty Impacts of Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hertel, T. W.; Lobell, D. B.; Verma, M.

2011-12-01

This paper seeks to understand the main sources of uncertainty in assessing the impacts of climate change on agricultural output, international trade, and poverty. We incorporate biophysical uncertainty by sampling from a distribution of global climate model predictions for temperature and precipitation for 2050. The implications of these realizations for crop yields around the globe are estimated using the recently published statistical crop yield functions provided by Lobell, Schlenker and Costa-Roberts (2011). By comparing these yields to those predicted under current climate, we obtain the likely change in crop yields owing to climate change. The economic uncertainty in our analysis relates to the response of the global economic system to these biophysical shocks. We use a modified version of the GTAP model to elicit the impact of the biophysical shocks on global patterns of production, consumption, trade and poverty. Uncertainty in these responses is reflected in the econometrically estimated parameters governing the responsiveness of international trade, consumption, production (and hence the intensive margin of supply response), and factor supplies (which govern the extensive margin of supply response). We sample from the distributions of these parameters as specified by Hertel et al. (2007) and Keeney and Hertel (2009). We find that, even though it is difficult to predict where in the world agricultural crops will be favorably affected by climate change, the responses of economic variables, including output and exports can be far more robust (Table 1). This is due to the fact that supply and demand decisions depend on relative prices, and relative prices depend on productivity changes relative to other crops in a given region, or relative to similar crops in other parts of the world. We also find that uncertainty in poverty impacts of climate change appears to be almost entirely driven by biophysical uncertainty.

An Integrated Modeling System for Water Resource Management Under Climate Change, Socio-Economic Development and Irrigation Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

SU, Q.; Karthikeyan, R.; Lin, Y.

2017-12-01

Water resources across the world have been increasingly stressed in the past few decades due to the population and economic growth and climate change. Consequently, the competing use of water among agricultural, domestic and industrial sectors is expected to be increasing. In this study, the water stresses under various climate change, socio-economic development and irrigation management scenarios are predicted over the period of 2015-2050 using an integrated model, in which the changes in water supply and demand induced by climate change, socio-economic development and irrigation management are dynamically parameterized. Simulations on the case of Texas, Southwest U.S. were performed using the newly developed integrated model, showing that the water stress is projected to be elevated in 2050 over most areas of Texas, particularly at Northern and Southern Plain and metropolitan areas. Climate change represents the most pronounce factor affecting the water supply and irrigation water demand in Texas. The water supply over East Texas is largely reduced in future because of the less precipitation and higher temperature under the climate change scenario, resulting in an elevated irrigation water demand and thus a higher water stress in this region. In contrast, the severity of water shortage in West Texas would be alleviated in future because of climate change. The water shortage index over metropolitan areas would increase by 50-90% under 1.0% migration scenario, suggesting that the population growth in future could also greatly stress the water supply, especially megacities like Dallas, Houston, Austin and San Antonio. The projected increase in manufacturing water demand shows little effects on the water stress. Increasing irrigation rate exacerbates the water stress over irrigated agricultural areas of Texas.

Climate change impacts on groundwater recharge- uncertainty, shortcomings, and the way forward?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holman, I. P.

2006-06-01

An integrated approach to assessing the regional impacts of climate and socio-economic change on groundwater recharge is described from East Anglia, UK. Many factors affect future groundwater recharge including changed precipitation and temperature regimes, coastal flooding, urbanization, woodland establishment, and changes in cropping and rotations. Important sources of uncertainty and shortcomings in recharge estimation are discussed in the light of the results. The uncertainty in, and importance of, socio-economic scenarios in exploring the consequences of unknown future changes are highlighted. Changes to soil properties are occurring over a range of time scales, such that the soils of the future may not have the same infiltration properties as existing soils. The potential implications involved in assuming unchanging soil properties are described. To focus on the direct impacts of climate change is to neglect the potentially important role of policy, societal values and economic processes in shaping the landscape above aquifers. If the likely consequences of future changes of groundwater recharge, resulting from both climate and socio-economic change, are to be assessed, hydrogeologists must increasingly work with researchers from other disciplines, such as socio-economists, agricultural modellers and soil scientists.

Late Glacial to Early Holocene socio-ecological responses to climatic instability within the Mediterranean basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernández-López de Pablo, Javier; Jones, Samantha E.; Burjachs, Francesc

2018-03-01

The period spanning the Late Glacial and the Early Holocene (≈19-8.2 ka) witnessed a dramatic sequence of climate and palaeoenvironmental changes (Rasmussen et al., 2014). Interestingly, some of the most significant transformations ever documented in human Prehistory took place during this period such as the intensification of hunter-gatherer economic systems, the domestication process of wild plants and animals, and the spread of farming across Eurasia. Understanding the role of climate and environmental dynamics on long-term cultural and economic trajectories, as well as specific human responses to episodes of rapid climate change, still remains as one of the main challenges of archaeological research (Kintigh et al., 2014).

Applying a Comprehensive Contextual Climate Change Vulnerability Framework to New Zealand's Tourism Industry.

PubMed

Hopkins, Debbie

2015-03-01

Conceptualisations of 'vulnerability' vary amongst scholarly communities, contributing to a wide variety of applications. Research investigating vulnerability to climate change has often excluded non-climatic changes which may contribute to degrees of vulnerability perceived or experienced. This paper introduces a comprehensive contextual vulnerability framework which incorporates physical, social, economic and political factors which could amplify or reduce vulnerability. The framework is applied to New Zealand's tourism industry to explore its value in interpreting a complex, human-natural environment system with multiple competing vulnerabilities. The comprehensive contextual framework can inform government policy and industry decision making, integrating understandings of climate change within the broader context of internal and external social, physical, economic, and institutional stressors.

Participatory Approach to Long-Term Socio-Economic Scenarios as Building Block of a Local Vulnerability and Risk Assessment Tool - The Case Study Lienz (East-Tyrol)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meyer, Ina; Eder, Brigitte; Hama, Michiko; Leitner, Markus

2016-04-01

Risks associated with climate change are mostly still understood and analyzed in a sector- or hazard-specific and rarely in a systemic, dynamic and scenario-based manner. In addition, socio-economic trends are often neglected in local vulnerability and risk assessments although they represent potential key determinants of risk and vulnerability. The project ARISE (Adaptation and Decision Support via Risk Management Through Local Burning Embers) aims at filling this gap by applying a participatory approach to socio-economic scenario building as building block of a local vulnerability assessment and risk management tool. Overall, ARISE aims at developing a decision support system for climate-sensitive iterative risk management as a key adaptation tool for the local level using Lienz in the East-Tyrol as a test-site City. One central building block is participatory socio-economic scenario building that - together with regionalized climate change scenarios - form a centrepiece in the process-oriented assessment of climate change risks and vulnerability. Major vulnerabilities and risks may stem from the economic performance, the socio-economic or socio-demographic developments or changes in asset exposition and not from climate change impacts themselves. The IPCC 5th assessment report underlines this and states that for most economic sectors, the impact of climate change may be small relative to the impacts of other driving forces such as changes in population growth, age, income, technology, relative prices, lifestyle, regulation, governance and many other factors in the socio-economy (Arent et al., 2014). The paper presents the methodology, process and results with respect to the building of long-term local socio-economic scenarios for the City of Lienz and the surrounding countryside. Scenarios were developed in a participatory approach using a scenario workshop that involved major stakeholders from the region. Participatory approaches are increasingly recognized as an important element in management and decision-making as problems in today's world are complex and require knowledge from many different domains and disciplines. Participation is also said to be a process of collective learning that changes the way people think and act which is a relevant point in forming appropriate region-specific climate adaptation strategies. The scenarios are based on an analysis of data on recent states and trends in major local sector developments concerning absolute and relative employment and value creation as well as on distinct socio-demographic developments in the region. Categories discussed in the scenario workshop cover inter alia institutions and governance, demographics, production and demand, markets, value-chains and trade, scientific and technological innovations, education and health. The derived stakeholder-based socio-economic scenarios were, in a second step, matched with the Shared Socio-economic reference Pathways (SSPs) in order to frame the locally produced scenarios with global narratives. Both strains were, in a third step, combined and backed-up by scientific literature in order to build the local socio-economic scenarios that served as background information in the analysis of risks, vulnerability and appropriate adaptation measures in the case-study region.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Socolow, R.H.; Anderson, D.; Harte, J.

Thirteen papers are included in this volume. The titles and authors are: From Physics to Development Strategies by Jose Goldemberg; Rewards and Penalties of Monitoring the Earth by Charles D. Keeling; Science and Nonscience Concerning Human-Caused Climate Warming by J. D. Mahlman; Consumption of Materials in the United States, 1990--1995 by Grecia Matos and Lorie Wagner; Future Technologies for Energy-Efficient Iron and Steel Making by Jeroen de Beer, Ernst Worrell, and Kornelis Blok; The O{sub 2} Balance of the Atmosphere: A Tool for Studying the Fate of Fossil Fuel CO{sub 2} by Michael L. Bender, Mark Battle, and Ralph F.more » Keeling; Mexican Electric End-Use Efficiency: Experiences to Date by Rafael Friedmann and Claudia Sheinbaum; Drinking Water in Developing Countries by Ashok Gadgil; Engineering-Economic Studies of Energy Technologies to Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Opportunities and Challenges by Marilyn A. Brown, Mark D. Levine, Joseph P. Romm, Arthur H. Rosenfeld, and Jonathan G. Koomey; Climate Change Mitigation in the Energy and Forestry Sectors of Developing Countries by Jayant A. Sathaye and N. H. Ravindranath; Toward a Productive Divorce: Separating DOE Cleanups from Transition Assistance by M. Russell; Recycling Metals for the Environment by Iddo K. Wernick and Nickolas J. Themelis; and Environmentally Conscious Chemical Process Design by J. A. Cano-Ruiz and G. J. McRae.« less

Climate change and the economics of biomass energy feedstocks in semi-arid agricultural landscapes: A spatially explicit real options analysis.

PubMed

Regan, Courtney M; Connor, Jeffery D; Raja Segaran, Ramesh; Meyer, Wayne S; Bryan, Brett A; Ostendorf, Bertram

2017-05-01

The economics of establishing perennial species as renewable energy feedstocks has been widely investigated as a climate change adapted diversification option for landholders, primarily using net present value (NPV) analysis. NPV does not account for key uncertainties likely to influence relevant landholder decision making. While real options analysis (ROA) is an alternative method that accounts for the uncertainty over future conditions and the large upfront irreversible investment involved in establishing perennials, there have been limited applications of ROA to evaluating land use change decision economics and even fewer applications considering climate change risks. Further, while the influence of spatially varying climate risk on biomass conversion economic has been widely evaluated using NPV methods, effects of spatial variability and climate on land use change have been scarcely assessed with ROA. In this study we applied a simulation-based ROA model to evaluate a landholder's decision to convert land from agriculture to biomass. This spatially explicit model considers price and yield risks under baseline climate and two climate change scenarios over a geographically diverse farming region. We found that underlying variability in primary productivity across the study area had a substantial effect on conversion thresholds required to trigger land use change when compared to results from NPV analysis. Areas traditionally thought of as being quite similar in average productive capacity can display large differences in response to the inclusion of production and price risks. The effects of climate change, broadly reduced returns required for land use change to biomass in low and medium rainfall zones and increased them in higher rainfall areas. Additionally, the risks posed by climate change can further exacerbate the tendency for NPV methods to underestimate true conversion thresholds. Our results show that even under severe drying and warming where crop yield variability is more affected than perennial biomass plantings, comparatively little of the study area is economically viable for conversion to biomass under $200/DM t, and it is not until prices exceed $200/DM t that significant areas become profitable for biomass plantings. We conclude that for biomass to become a valuable diversification option the synchronisation of products and services derived from biomass and the development of markets is vital. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Mitigation options for the industrial sector in Egypt

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gelil, I.A.; El-Touny, S.; Korkor, H.

1996-12-31

Though its contribution to the global Greenhouse gases emission is relatively small, Egypt has signed and ratified the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UN FCCC) and has been playing an active role in the international efforts to deal with such environmental challenges. Energy efficiency has been one of the main strategies that Egypt has adopted to improve environmental quality and enhance economic competitiveness. This paper highlights three initiatives currently underway to improve energy efficiency of the Egyptian industry. The first is a project that has been recently completed by OECP to assess potential GHG mitigation options available inmore » Egypt`s oil refineries. The second initiative is an assessment of GHG mitigation potential in the Small and Medium size Enterprises (SME) in the Mediterranean city of Alexandria. The third one focuses on identifying demand side management options in some industrial electricity consumers in the same city.« less

How Sustainable is Groundwater Abstraction? A Global Assessment.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Graaf, I.; Van Beek, R.; Gleeson, T. P.; Sutanudjaja, E.; Wada, Y.; Bierkens, M. F.

2016-12-01

Groundwater is the world's largest accessible freshwater resource and is of critical importance for irrigation, and thus for global food security. For regions with high demands, groundwater abstractions often exceed recharge and persistent groundwater depletion occurs. The direct effects of depletion are falling groundwater levels, increased pumping costs, land subsidence, and reduced baseflows to rivers. Water demands are expected to increase further due to growing population, economic development, and climate change, posing the urgent question how sustainable current water abstractions are worldwide and where and when these abstractions approach conceivable economic and environmental limits. In this study we estimated trends over 1960-2100 in groundwater levels, resulting from changes in demand and climate. We explored the limits of groundwater abstraction by predicting where and when groundwater levels drop that deep that groundwater gets unattainable for abstraction (economic limit) or, that groundwater baseflows to rivers drop below environmental requirements (environmental limit). We used a global hydrological model coupled to a groundwater model, meaning lateral groundwater flows, river infiltration and drainage, and infiltration and capillary-rise are simulated dynamically. Historical data and projections are used to prescribe water demands and climate forcing to the model. For the near future we used RCP8.5 and applied globally driest, average, and wettest GCM to test climate sensitivity. Results show that in general environmental limits are reached before economic limits, for example starting as early as the 1970s compared to the 1980s for economic limits in the upper Ganges basin. Economic limits are mostly related to regions with depletion, while environmental limits are reached also in regions were groundwater and surface water withdrawals are significant but depletion is not taking place (yet), for example in Spain and Portugal. In the near future, more regions will reach their limits, current depletion regions will expand and new regions experiencing depletion will develop. Regionally the increasing level of groundwater stress, economically and environmentally, will be an important factor in future economic development and could lead to socio-economic tension.

How Sustainable is Groundwater Abstraction? A Global Assessment.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Graaf, I.; Van Beek, R.; Gleeson, T. P.; Sutanudjaja, E.; Wada, Y.; Bierkens, M. F.

2017-12-01

Groundwater is the world's largest accessible freshwater resource and is of critical importance for irrigation, and thus for global food security. For regions with high demands, groundwater abstractions often exceed recharge and persistent groundwater depletion occurs. The direct effects of depletion are falling groundwater levels, increased pumping costs, land subsidence, and reduced baseflows to rivers. Water demands are expected to increase further due to growing population, economic development, and climate change, posing the urgent question how sustainable current water abstractions are worldwide and where and when these abstractions approach conceivable economic and environmental limits. In this study we estimated trends over 1960-2100 in groundwater levels, resulting from changes in demand and climate. We explored the limits of groundwater abstraction by predicting where and when groundwater levels drop that deep that groundwater gets unattainable for abstraction (economic limit) or, that groundwater baseflows to rivers drop below environmental requirements (environmental limit). We used a global hydrological model coupled to a groundwater model, meaning lateral groundwater flows, river infiltration and drainage, and infiltration and capillary-rise are simulated dynamically. Historical data and projections are used to prescribe water demands and climate forcing to the model. For the near future we used RCP8.5 and applied globally driest, average, and wettest GCM to test climate sensitivity. Results show that in general environmental limits are reached before economic limits, for example starting as early as the 1970s compared to the 1980s for economic limits in the upper Ganges basin. Economic limits are mostly related to regions with depletion, while environmental limits are reached also in regions were groundwater and surface water withdrawals are significant but depletion is not taking place (yet), for example in Spain and Portugal. In the near future, more regions will reach their limits, current depletion regions will expand and new regions experiencing depletion will develop. Regionally the increasing level of groundwater stress, economically and environmentally, will be an important factor in future economic development and could lead to socio-economic tension.

Climate Change Accuracy: Requirements and Economic Value

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wielicki, B. A.; Cooke, R.; Mlynczak, M. G.; Lukashin, C.; Thome, K. J.; Baize, R. R.

2014-12-01

Higher than normal accuracy is required to rigorously observe decadal climate change. But what level is needed? How can this be quantified? This presentation will summarize a new more rigorous and quantitative approach to determining the required accuracy for climate change observations (Wielicki et al., 2013, BAMS). Most current global satellite observations cannot meet this accuracy level. A proposed new satellite mission to resolve this challenge is CLARREO (Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory). CLARREO is designed to achieve advances of a factor of 10 for reflected solar spectra and a factor of 3 to 5 for thermal infrared spectra (Wielicki et al., Oct. 2013 BAMS). The CLARREO spectrometers are designed to serve as SI traceable benchmarks for the Global Satellite Intercalibration System (GSICS) and to greatly improve the utility of a wide range of LEO and GEO infrared and reflected solar passive satellite sensors for climate change observations (e.g. CERES, MODIS, VIIIRS, CrIS, IASI, Landsat, SPOT, etc). Providing more accurate decadal change trends can in turn lead to more rapid narrowing of key climate science uncertainties such as cloud feedback and climate sensitivity. A study has been carried out to quantify the economic benefits of such an advance as part of a rigorous and complete climate observing system. The study concludes that the economic value is $12 Trillion U.S. dollars in Net Present Value for a nominal discount rate of 3% (Cooke et al. 2013, J. Env. Sys. Dec.). A brief summary of these two studies and their implications for the future of climate science will be presented.

Representative Agricultural Pathways and Climate Impact Assessment for Pacific Northwest Agricultural Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

MU, J.; Antle, J. M.; Zhang, H.; Capalbo, S. M.; Eigenbrode, S.; Kruger, C.; Stockle, C.; Wolfhorst, J. D.

2013-12-01

Representative Agricultural Pathways (RAPs) are projections of plausible future biophysical and socio-economic conditions used to carry out climate impact assessments for agriculture. The development of RAPs iss motivated by the fact that the various global and regional models used for agricultural climate change impact assessment have been implemented with individualized scenarios using various data and model structures, often without transparent documentation or public availability. These practices have hampered attempts at model inter-comparison, improvement, and synthesis of model results across studies. This paper aims to (1) present RAPs developed for the principal wheat-producing region of the Pacific Northwest, and to (2) combine these RAPs with downscaled climate data, crop model simulations and economic model simulations to assess climate change impacts on winter wheat production and farm income. This research was carried out as part of a project funded by the USDA known as the Regional Approaches to Climate Change in the Pacific Northwest (REACCH). The REACCH study region encompasses the major winter wheat production area in Pacific Northwest and preliminary research shows that farmers producing winter wheat could benefit from future climate change. However, the future world is uncertain in many dimensions, including commodity and input prices, production technology, and policies, as well as increased probability of disturbances (pests and diseases) associated with a changing climate. Many of these factors cannot be modeled, so they are represented in the regional RAPS. The regional RAPS are linked to global agricultural and shared social-economic pathways, and used along with climate change projections to simulate future outcomes for the wheat-based farms in the REACCH region.

Forest adjacent households' voices on their perceptions and adaptation strategies to climate change in Kilombero District, Tanzania.

PubMed

Balama, Chelestino; Augustino, Suzana; Eriksen, Siri; Makonda, Fortunatus B S

2016-01-01

Climate change is a global and local challenge to both sustainable livelihoods and economic development. Tanzania as other countries of the world has been affected. Several studies have been conducted on farmers' perceptions and adaptation to climate change in the country, but little attention has been devoted to forest adjacent households in humid areas. This study assessed this gap through assessing forest adjacent households' voices on perceptions and adaptation strategies to climate change in Kilombero District, Tanzania. Data collection involved key informant interviews, focus group discussions and household questionnaires. Results showed that the majority of households perceived changed climate in terms of temperature increase, unpredictable rainfall, frequent occurrence of floods, increased dry spells during rainy season coupled with decreased water sources and emergence of new pests and diseases. The perceived change in climate has impacted agriculture productivity as the main livelihood source. Different coping and adaptation strategies are employed. These are; crop diversification, changing cropping calendar, adopting modern farming technologies, and increasing reliance on non-timber forest products. These strategies were positively and significantly influenced by socio-economic factors including household size, residence period, land ownership and household income. The study concludes that, there are changes in climatic conditions; and to respond to these climatic changes, forest adjacent households have developed numerous coping and adaptation strategies, which were positively and significantly influenced by some socio-economic factors. The study calls for actual implementation of local climate change policies and strategies in order to enhance adaptive capacity at household level.

Feasible Electricity Infrastructure Pathways in the Context of Climate-Water Change Constraints

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miara, A.; Vorosmarty, C. J.; Macknick, J.; Cohen, S. M.; Tidwell, V. C.; Newmark, R. L.; Fekete, B. M.; Corsi, F.; Sun, Y.; Proussevitch, A. A.; Glidden, S.

2017-12-01

The carbon and water intensity of US electricity generation has recently decreased due to the natural gas revolution and deployment of renewable technologies. Yet, power plants that require water for cooling still provide 80% of electricity generation and projected climate-water conditions may limit their power output and affect reliability. Understanding the connections and tradeoffs across water, electricity and climate systems is timely, as the nation tries to mitigate and adapt to a changing climate. Electricity expansion models are used to provide insight on power sector pathways given certain policy goals and economic conditions, but do not typically account for productivity limitations due to physical climate-water constraints. Here, we account for such constraints by coupling an electricity expansion model (Regional Energy Deployment System - ReEDS) with the combined Water Balance and Thermoelectric Power and Thermal Pollution Models (WBM-TP2M), which calculate the available capacity at power plants as a function of hydrologic flows, climate conditions, power plant technology and environmental regulations. To fully capture and incorporate climate-water impacts into ReEDS, a specific rule-set was designed for the temporal and spatial downscaling and up-scaling of ReEDS results into WBM-TP2M inputs and visa versa - required to achieve a modeling `loop' that will enable convergence on a feasible solution in the context of economic and geophysical constraints and opportunities. This novel modeling approach is the next phase of research for understanding electricity system vulnerabilities and adaptation measures using energy-water-climate modeling, which to-date has been limited by a focus on individual generators without analyzing power generation as a collective regional system. This study considers four energy policy/economic pathways under future climate-water resource conditions, designed under the National Energy Water System assessment framework. Results highlight the importance of linking Earth-system and economic modeling tools and provide insight on potential electricity infrastructure pathways that are sustainable, in terms lowering both water use and carbon emissions, and reliable in the face of future climate-water resource constraints.

ClimateSpark: An in-memory distributed computing framework for big climate data analytics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Fei; Yang, Chaowei; Schnase, John L.; Duffy, Daniel Q.; Xu, Mengchao; Bowen, Michael K.; Lee, Tsengdar; Song, Weiwei

2018-06-01

The unprecedented growth of climate data creates new opportunities for climate studies, and yet big climate data pose a grand challenge to climatologists to efficiently manage and analyze big data. The complexity of climate data content and analytical algorithms increases the difficulty of implementing algorithms on high performance computing systems. This paper proposes an in-memory, distributed computing framework, ClimateSpark, to facilitate complex big data analytics and time-consuming computational tasks. Chunking data structure improves parallel I/O efficiency, while a spatiotemporal index is built for the chunks to avoid unnecessary data reading and preprocessing. An integrated, multi-dimensional, array-based data model (ClimateRDD) and ETL operations are developed to address big climate data variety by integrating the processing components of the climate data lifecycle. ClimateSpark utilizes Spark SQL and Apache Zeppelin to develop a web portal to facilitate the interaction among climatologists, climate data, analytic operations and computing resources (e.g., using SQL query and Scala/Python notebook). Experimental results show that ClimateSpark conducts different spatiotemporal data queries/analytics with high efficiency and data locality. ClimateSpark is easily adaptable to other big multiple-dimensional, array-based datasets in various geoscience domains.

A novel integrated modelling framework to assess the impacts of climate and socio-economic drivers on land use and water quality.

PubMed

Zessner, Matthias; Schönhart, Martin; Parajka, Juraj; Trautvetter, Helene; Mitter, Hermine; Kirchner, Mathias; Hepp, Gerold; Blaschke, Alfred Paul; Strenn, Birgit; Schmid, Erwin

2017-02-01

Changes in climatic conditions will directly affect the quality and quantity of water resources. Further on, they will affect them indirectly through adaptation in land use which ultimately influences diffuse nutrient emissions to rivers and therefore potentially the compliance with good ecological status according to the EU Water Framework Directive (WFD). We present an integrated impact modelling framework (IIMF) to track and quantify direct and indirect pollution impacts along policy-economy-climate-agriculture-water interfaces. The IIMF is applied to assess impacts of climatic and socio-economic drivers on agricultural land use (crop choices, farming practices and fertilization levels), river flows and the risk for exceedance of environmental quality standards for determination of the ecological water quality status in Austria. This article also presents model interfaces as well as validation procedures and results of single models and the IIMF with respect to observed state variables such as land use, river flow and nutrient river loads. The performance of the IIMF for calculations of river nutrient loads (120 monitoring stations) shows a Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency of 0.73 for nitrogen and 0.51 for phosphorus. Most problematic is the modelling of phosphorus loads in the alpine catchments dominated by forests and mountainous landscape. About 63% of these catchments show a deviation between modelled and observed loads of 30% and more. In catchments dominated by agricultural production, the performance of the IIMF is much better as only 30% of cropland and 23% of permanent grassland dominated areas have a deviation of >30% between modelled and observed loads. As risk of exceedance of environmental quality standards is mainly recognized in catchments dominated by cropland, the IIMF is well suited for assessing the nutrient component of the WFD ecological status. Copyright © 2016 British Geological Survey, NERC. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The soil-water system as basis for a climate proof and healthy urban environment: opportunities identified in a Dutch case-study.

PubMed

Claessens, Jacqueline; Schram-Bijkerk, Dieneke; Dirven-van Breemen, Liesbet; Otte, Piet; van Wijnen, Harm

2014-07-01

One of the effects of climate change expected to take place in urban areas in the Netherlands is an increase in periods of extreme heat and drought. How the soil can contribute to making cities more climate proof is often neglected. Unsealed soil and green spaces increase water storage capacity and can consequently prevent flooding. The planning of public or private green spaces can have a cooling effect and, in general, have a positive effect on how people perceive their health. This paper reviews existing guidelines from Dutch policy documents regarding unsealed soil and green spaces in the Netherlands; do they support climate adaptation policies? Scientific literature was used to quantify the positive effects of green spaces on water storage capacity, cooling and public health. Finally we present a case study of a model town where different policy areas are linked together. Maps were made to provide insight into the ratio of unsealed soil and the number of green spaces in relation to existing guidelines using Geographical Information Systems (GIS). Maps marking the age and social-economic status of the population were also made. The benefits of green spaces are difficult to express in averages because they depend on many different factors such as soil properties, type of green spaces, population characteristics and spatial planning. Moreover, it is not possible to provide quantifications of the benefits of green spaces because of a lack of scientific evidence at the moment. Based on the maps, however, policy assessments can be made, for example, in which site a neighborhood will most benefit from investment in parks and public gardens. Neighborhoods where people have a low social-economic status have for example fewer green spaces than others. This offers opportunities for efficient adaptation policies linking goals of several policy fields. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Biospheric feedback effects in a synchronously coupled model of human and Earth systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Thornton, Peter E.; Calvin, Katherine; Jones, Andrew D.

Fossil fuel combustion and land-use change are the two largest contributors to industrial-era increases in atmospheric CO 2 concentration. Projections of these are thus fundamental inputs for coupled Earth system models (ESMs) used to estimate the physical and biological consequences of future climate system forcing. While historical datasets are available to inform past and current climate analyses, assessments of future climate change have relied on projections of energy and land use from energy economic models, constrained by assumptions about future policy, land-use patterns, and socio-economic development trajectories. We show that the climatic impacts on land ecosystems drives significant feedbacks inmore » energy, agriculture, land-use, and carbon cycle projections for the 21st century. We also find that exposure of human appropriated land ecosystem productivity to biospheric change results in reductions of land area used for crops; increases in managed forest area and carbon stocks; decreases in global crop prices; and reduction in fossil fuel emissions for a low-mid range forcing scenario. Furthermore, the feedbacks between climate-induced biospheric change and human system forcings to the climate system demonstrated here are handled inconsistently, or excluded altogether, in the one-way asynchronous coupling of energy economic models to ESMs used to date.« less

Climate Change Observation Accuracy: Requirements and Economic Value

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wielicki, Bruce; Cooke, Roger; Golub, Alexander; Baize, Rosemary; Mlynczak, Martin; Lukashin, Constantin; Thome, Kurt; Shea, Yolanda; Kopp, Greg; Pilewskie, Peter;

Biospheric feedback effects in a synchronously coupled model of human and Earth systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thornton, Peter E.; Calvin, Katherine; Jones, Andrew D.; di Vittorio, Alan V.; Bond-Lamberty, Ben; Chini, Louise; Shi, Xiaoying; Mao, Jiafu; Collins, William D.; Edmonds, Jae; Thomson, Allison; Truesdale, John; Craig, Anthony; Branstetter, Marcia L.; Hurtt, George

2017-07-01

Fossil fuel combustion and land-use change are the two largest contributors to industrial-era increases in atmospheric CO 2 concentration. Projections of these are thus fundamental inputs for coupled Earth system models (ESMs) used to estimate the physical and biological consequences of future climate system forcing. While historical data sets are available to inform past and current climate analyses, assessments of future climate change have relied on projections of energy and land use from energy-economic models, constrained by assumptions about future policy, land-use patterns and socio-economic development trajectories. Here we show that the climatic impacts on land ecosystems drive significant feedbacks in energy, agriculture, land use and carbon cycle projections for the twenty-first century. We find that exposure of human-appropriated land ecosystem productivity to biospheric change results in reductions of land area used for crops; increases in managed forest area and carbon stocks; decreases in global crop prices; and reduction in fossil fuel emissions for a low-mid-range forcing scenario. The feedbacks between climate-induced biospheric change and human system forcings to the climate system--demonstrated here--are handled inconsistently, or excluded altogether, in the one-way asynchronous coupling of energy-economic models to ESMs used to date.

Biospheric feedback effects in a synchronously coupled model of human and Earth systems

DOE PAGES

Thornton, Peter E.; Calvin, Katherine; Jones, Andrew D.; ...

2017-06-12

Fossil fuel combustion and land-use change are the two largest contributors to industrial-era increases in atmospheric CO 2 concentration. Projections of these are thus fundamental inputs for coupled Earth system models (ESMs) used to estimate the physical and biological consequences of future climate system forcing. While historical datasets are available to inform past and current climate analyses, assessments of future climate change have relied on projections of energy and land use from energy economic models, constrained by assumptions about future policy, land-use patterns, and socio-economic development trajectories. We show that the climatic impacts on land ecosystems drives significant feedbacks inmore » energy, agriculture, land-use, and carbon cycle projections for the 21st century. We also find that exposure of human appropriated land ecosystem productivity to biospheric change results in reductions of land area used for crops; increases in managed forest area and carbon stocks; decreases in global crop prices; and reduction in fossil fuel emissions for a low-mid range forcing scenario. Furthermore, the feedbacks between climate-induced biospheric change and human system forcings to the climate system demonstrated here are handled inconsistently, or excluded altogether, in the one-way asynchronous coupling of energy economic models to ESMs used to date.« less

Estimating least-developed countries' vulnerability to climate-related extreme events over the next 50 years.

PubMed

Patt, Anthony G; Tadross, Mark; Nussbaumer, Patrick; Asante, Kwabena; Metzger, Marc; Rafael, Jose; Goujon, Anne; Brundrit, Geoff

2010-01-26

When will least developed countries be most vulnerable to climate change, given the influence of projected socio-economic development? The question is important, not least because current levels of international assistance to support adaptation lag more than an order of magnitude below what analysts estimate to be needed, and scaling up support could take many years. In this paper, we examine this question using an empirically derived model of human losses to climate-related extreme events, as an indicator of vulnerability and the need for adaptation assistance. We develop a set of 50-year scenarios for these losses in one country, Mozambique, using high-resolution climate projections, and then extend the results to a sample of 23 least-developed countries. Our approach takes into account both potential changes in countries' exposure to climatic extreme events, and socio-economic development trends that influence countries' own adaptive capacities. Our results suggest that the effects of socio-economic development trends may begin to offset rising climate exposure in the second quarter of the century, and that it is in the period between now and then that vulnerability will rise most quickly. This implies an urgency to the need for international assistance to finance adaptation.

Estimating least-developed countries’ vulnerability to climate-related extreme events over the next 50 years

PubMed Central

Patt, Anthony G.; Tadross, Mark; Nussbaumer, Patrick; Asante, Kwabena; Metzger, Marc; Rafael, Jose; Goujon, Anne; Brundrit, Geoff

2010-01-01

When will least developed countries be most vulnerable to climate change, given the influence of projected socio-economic development? The question is important, not least because current levels of international assistance to support adaptation lag more than an order of magnitude below what analysts estimate to be needed, and scaling up support could take many years. In this paper, we examine this question using an empirically derived model of human losses to climate-related extreme events, as an indicator of vulnerability and the need for adaptation assistance. We develop a set of 50-year scenarios for these losses in one country, Mozambique, using high-resolution climate projections, and then extend the results to a sample of 23 least-developed countries. Our approach takes into account both potential changes in countries’ exposure to climatic extreme events, and socio-economic development trends that influence countries’ own adaptive capacities. Our results suggest that the effects of socio-economic development trends may begin to offset rising climate exposure in the second quarter of the century, and that it is in the period between now and then that vulnerability will rise most quickly. This implies an urgency to the need for international assistance to finance adaptation. PMID:20080585

The impact of high-end climate change on agricultural welfare

PubMed Central

Stevanović, Miodrag; Popp, Alexander; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Dietrich, Jan Philipp; Müller, Christoph; Bonsch, Markus; Schmitz, Christoph; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; Humpenöder, Florian; Weindl, Isabelle

2016-01-01

Climate change threatens agricultural productivity worldwide, resulting in higher food prices. Associated economic gains and losses differ not only by region but also between producers and consumers and are affected by market dynamics. On the basis of an impact modeling chain, starting with 19 different climate projections that drive plant biophysical process simulations and ending with agro-economic decisions, this analysis focuses on distributional effects of high-end climate change impacts across geographic regions and across economic agents. By estimating the changes in surpluses of consumers and producers, we find that climate change can have detrimental impacts on global agricultural welfare, especially after 2050, because losses in consumer surplus generally outweigh gains in producer surplus. Damage in agriculture may reach the annual loss of 0.3% of future total gross domestic product at the end of the century globally, assuming further opening of trade in agricultural products, which typically leads to interregional production shifts to higher latitudes. Those estimated global losses could increase substantially if international trade is more restricted. If beneficial effects of atmospheric carbon dioxide fertilization can be realized in agricultural production, much of the damage could be avoided. Although trade policy reforms toward further liberalization help alleviate climate change impacts, additional compensation mechanisms for associated environmental and development concerns have to be considered. PMID:27574700

Climate change and the macroeconomic structure in pre-industrial europe: new evidence from wavelet analysis.

PubMed

Pei, Qing; Zhang, David D; Li, Guodong; Lee, Harry F

2015-01-01

The relationship between climate change and the macroeconomy in pre-industrial Europe has attracted considerable attention in recent years. This study follows the combined paradigms of evolutionary economics and ecological economics, in which wavelet analysis (spectrum analysis and coherence analysis) is applied as the first attempt to examine the relationship between climate change and the macroeconomic structure in pre-industrial Europe in the frequency domain. Aside from confirming previous results, this study aims to further substantiate the association between climate change and macroeconomy by presenting new evidence obtained from the wavelet analysis. Our spectrum analysis shows a consistent and continuous frequency band of 60-80 years in the temperature, grain yield ratio, grain price, consumer price index, and real wage throughout the study period. Besides, coherence analysis shows that the macroeconomic structure is shaped more by climate change than population change. In addition, temperature is proven as a key climatic factor that influences the macroeconomic structure. The analysis reveals a unique frequency band of about 20 years (15-35 years) in the temperature in AD1600-1700, which could have contributed to the widespread economic crisis in pre-industrial Europe. Our findings may have indications in re-examining the Malthusian theory.

The impact of high-end climate change on agricultural welfare.

PubMed

Stevanović, Miodrag; Popp, Alexander; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Dietrich, Jan Philipp; Müller, Christoph; Bonsch, Markus; Schmitz, Christoph; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; Humpenöder, Florian; Weindl, Isabelle

2016-08-01

Climate change threatens agricultural productivity worldwide, resulting in higher food prices. Associated economic gains and losses differ not only by region but also between producers and consumers and are affected by market dynamics. On the basis of an impact modeling chain, starting with 19 different climate projections that drive plant biophysical process simulations and ending with agro-economic decisions, this analysis focuses on distributional effects of high-end climate change impacts across geographic regions and across economic agents. By estimating the changes in surpluses of consumers and producers, we find that climate change can have detrimental impacts on global agricultural welfare, especially after 2050, because losses in consumer surplus generally outweigh gains in producer surplus. Damage in agriculture may reach the annual loss of 0.3% of future total gross domestic product at the end of the century globally, assuming further opening of trade in agricultural products, which typically leads to interregional production shifts to higher latitudes. Those estimated global losses could increase substantially if international trade is more restricted. If beneficial effects of atmospheric carbon dioxide fertilization can be realized in agricultural production, much of the damage could be avoided. Although trade policy reforms toward further liberalization help alleviate climate change impacts, additional compensation mechanisms for associated environmental and development concerns have to be considered.

Climate Change and the Macroeconomic Structure in Pre-Industrial Europe: New Evidence from Wavelet Analysis

PubMed Central

Pei, Qing; Zhang, David D.; Li, Guodong; Lee, Harry F.

2015-01-01

The relationship between climate change and the macroeconomy in pre-industrial Europe has attracted considerable attention in recent years. This study follows the combined paradigms of evolutionary economics and ecological economics, in which wavelet analysis (spectrum analysis and coherence analysis) is applied as the first attempt to examine the relationship between climate change and the macroeconomic structure in pre-industrial Europe in the frequency domain. Aside from confirming previous results, this study aims to further substantiate the association between climate change and macroeconomy by presenting new evidence obtained from the wavelet analysis. Our spectrum analysis shows a consistent and continuous frequency band of 60–80 years in the temperature, grain yield ratio, grain price, consumer price index, and real wage throughout the study period. Besides, coherence analysis shows that the macroeconomic structure is shaped more by climate change than population change. In addition, temperature is proven as a key climatic factor that influences the macroeconomic structure. The analysis reveals a unique frequency band of about 20 years (15–35 years) in the temperature in AD1600-1700, which could have contributed to the widespread economic crisis in pre-industrial Europe. Our findings may have indications in re-examining the Malthusian theory. PMID:26039087

RISKS, OPPORTUNITIES, AND ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE

EPA Science Inventory

Adaptation is an important approach for protecting human health, ecosystems, and economic systems from the risks posed by climate variability and change, and to exploit beneficial opportunities provided by a changing climate. This paper presents nine fundamental principles that ...

Decomposing climate-induced temperature and water effects on the expansion and operation of the US electricity system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Y.; Eurek, K.; Macknick, J.; Steinberg, D. C.; Averyt, K.; Badger, A.; Livneh, B.

2017-12-01

Climate change has the potential to affect the supply and demands of the U.S. power sector. Rising air temperatures can affect the seasonal and total demand for electricity, alter the thermal efficiency of power plants, and lower the maximum capacity of electric transmission lines. Changes in hydrology can affect seasonal and total availability of water used for power plant operations. Prior studies have examined some climate impacts on the electricity sector, but there has been no systematic study quantifying and comparing the importance of these climate-induced effects in isolation and in combination. Here, we perform a systematic assessment using the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) electricity sector model in combination with downscaled climate results from four models in the CMIP5 archive that provide contrasting temperature and precipitation trends for key regions in the U.S. The ReEDS model captures dynamic climate and hydrological resource data .when choosing the cost optimal mix of generation resources necessary to balance supply and demand for electricity. We examine how different climate-induced changes in air temperature and water availability, considered in isolation and in combination, may affect energy and economic outcomes at a regional and national level from the present through 2050. Results indicate that temperature-induced impacts on electricity consumption show consistent trends nationwide across all climate scenarios. Hydrological impacts and variability differ by model and tend to have a minor effect on national electricity trends, but can be important determinants regionally. Taken together, this suggests that isolated climate change impacts on the electricity system depend on the geographic scale of interest - the effect of rising temperatures on demand, which is qualitatively robust to the choice of climate model, largely determines impacts on generation, capacity and cost at the national level, whereas other impact pathways may dominate at regional level.

The Copernicus programme and its Climate Change Service (C3S): a European answer to Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pinty, Bernard; Thepaut, Jean-Noel; Dee, Dick

2016-07-01

In November 2014, The European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) signed an agreement with the European Commission to deliver two of the Copernicus Earth Observation Programme Services on the Commission's behalf. The ECMWF delivered services - the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) and Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) - will bring a consistent standard to how we measure and predict atmospheric conditions and climate change. They will maximise the potential of past, current and future earth observations - ground, ocean, airborne, satellite - and analyse these to monitor and predict atmospheric conditions and in the future, climate change. With the wealth of free and open data that the services provide, they will help business users to assess the impact of their business decisions and make informed choices, delivering a more energy efficient and climate aware economy. These sound investment decisions now will not only stimulate growth in the short term, but reduce the impact of climate change on the economy and society in the future. C3S is in its proof of concept phase and through its climate data store will provide global and regional climate data reanalyses; multi-model seasonal forecasts; customisable visual data to enable examination of wide range of scenarios and model the impact of changes; access to all the underlying data, including climate data records from various satellite and in-situ observations. In addition, C3S will provide key indicators on climate change drivers (such as carbon dioxide) and impacts (such as reducing glaciers). The aim of these indicators will be to support European adaptation and mitigation policies in a number of economic sectors. The presentation will provide an overview of this newly created Service, its various components and activities, and a roadmap towards achieving a fully operational European Climate Service at the horizon 2019-2020. It will focus on the requirements for quality-assured Observation Gridded Products to establish an operational delivery of a series of gridded long-term Climate Data Records (CDRs) of Essential Climate Variables (ECVs), along with associated input data and uncertainty estimation.

Economics of nuclear power and climate change mitigation policies.

PubMed

Bauer, Nico; Brecha, Robert J; Luderer, Gunnar

2012-10-16

The events of March 2011 at the nuclear power complex in Fukushima, Japan, raised questions about the safe operation of nuclear power plants, with early retirement of existing nuclear power plants being debated in the policy arena and considered by regulators. Also, the future of building new nuclear power plants is highly uncertain. Should nuclear power policies become more restrictive, one potential option for climate change mitigation will be less available. However, a systematic analysis of nuclear power policies, including early retirement, has been missing in the climate change mitigation literature. We apply an energy economy model framework to derive scenarios and analyze the interactions and tradeoffs between these two policy fields. Our results indicate that early retirement of nuclear power plants leads to discounted cumulative global GDP losses of 0.07% by 2020. If, in addition, new nuclear investments are excluded, total losses will double. The effect of climate policies imposed by an intertemporal carbon budget on incremental costs of policies restricting nuclear power use is small. However, climate policies have much larger impacts than policies restricting the use of nuclear power. The carbon budget leads to cumulative discounted near term reductions of global GDP of 0.64% until 2020. Intertemporal flexibility of the carbon budget approach enables higher near-term emissions as a result of increased power generation from natural gas to fill the emerging gap in electricity supply, while still remaining within the overall carbon budget. Demand reductions and efficiency improvements are the second major response strategy.

Economics of nuclear power and climate change mitigation policies

PubMed Central

Bauer, Nico; Brecha, Robert J.; Luderer, Gunnar

2012-01-01

The events of March 2011 at the nuclear power complex in Fukushima, Japan, raised questions about the safe operation of nuclear power plants, with early retirement of existing nuclear power plants being debated in the policy arena and considered by regulators. Also, the future of building new nuclear power plants is highly uncertain. Should nuclear power policies become more restrictive, one potential option for climate change mitigation will be less available. However, a systematic analysis of nuclear power policies, including early retirement, has been missing in the climate change mitigation literature. We apply an energy economy model framework to derive scenarios and analyze the interactions and tradeoffs between these two policy fields. Our results indicate that early retirement of nuclear power plants leads to discounted cumulative global GDP losses of 0.07% by 2020. If, in addition, new nuclear investments are excluded, total losses will double. The effect of climate policies imposed by an intertemporal carbon budget on incremental costs of policies restricting nuclear power use is small. However, climate policies have much larger impacts than policies restricting the use of nuclear power. The carbon budget leads to cumulative discounted near term reductions of global GDP of 0.64% until 2020. Intertemporal flexibility of the carbon budget approach enables higher near-term emissions as a result of increased power generation from natural gas to fill the emerging gap in electricity supply, while still remaining within the overall carbon budget. Demand reductions and efficiency improvements are the second major response strategy. PMID:23027963

The climate velocity of the contiguous United States during the 20th century

Treesearch

Solomon Z. Dobrowski; John Abatzoglou; Alan K. Swanson; Jonathan A. Greenberg; Alison R. Mynsberge; Zachary A. Holden; Michael K. Schwartz

2013-01-01

Rapid climate change has the potential to affect economic, social, and biological systems. A concern for species conservation is whether or not the rate of on-going climate change will exceed the rate at which species can adapt or move to suitable environments. Here we assess the climate velocity (both climate displacement rate and direction) for minimum temperature,...

Climate Change and Flooding in an Ecologically Fragile Zone of Nigerian Coastal Areas: A Case Study of Ilaje Settlement in Lagos, Nigeria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oni, A. F.

2017-12-01

Climate change exacerbates the environmental condition directly or indirectly. The frequency of climate-related disasters worldwide has been on the increase with their amplitude growing. The consequences of climate-related disaster are not limited to loss of lives and properties alone, but also serious repercussions on post-disaster reconstruction, as well as the cost implications for resilience of the infrastructure and natural environment. In developing countries, the low-income group whose income is below the world poverty line is the most vulnerable to the dangers of climate change. To worsen the case, the political and economic strength of these countries in terms of economic resources, technological development and urban planning management necessary for adapting to climate change are relatively weak. This study takes an inventory of the study area environment to establish its environmental state in terms of the extent of its vulnerability and economic strength. It was found that the study area is vulnerable being a coastal area and could be described as a slum settlement. Also, information on frequency and extent of flooding in association with change in temperature was collected. The results show that the frequency of flood occurrence within the period has increased and the increase was attributed to rise in sea level alongside a significant increase in temperature within the period of study. The implications of the findings on loss of lives/properties and continuous decline in the area economic strength as it relates to resilience of the area was discussed. The study suggests an effective urban land use management and control, as well as redevelopment of resilient infrastructure in the area. The study concludes that the increase in temperature for the period as an indicator of climate change causes rise in sea level and the subsequent increase in flooding occurrence. Key Words: Ecologically Fragile Zone, Climate Change, Flooding and Vulnerability.

The different modes of hydro-economic analysis (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harou, J. J.; Binions, O.; Erfani, T.

2013-12-01

In the face of growing water demands, climate change and spatial and temporal water access variability, accurately assessing the economic impacts of proposed water resource management changes is useful. The objective of this project funded by UK Water Industry Research was to present and demonstrate a framework for identifying and using the ';value of water' to enable water utilities and their regulators to make better decisions. A hydro-economic model can help evaluate water management options in terms of their hydrological and economic impact at different locations throughout a catchment over time. In this talk we discuss three modes in which hydro-economic models can be implemented: evaluative, behavioral and prescriptive. In evaluation mode economic water demand and benefit functions are used to post-process water resource management model results to assess the economic impacts (over space and time) of a policy under consideration. In behavioral hydro-economic models users are represented as agents and the economics is used to help predict their actions. In prescriptive mode optimization is used to find the most economically efficient management actions such as allocation patterns or source selection. These three types of hydro-economic analysis are demonstrated on a UK watershed (Great River Ouse) that includes 97 different water abstractors from amongst the public water supply, agriculture, industry and energy plant cooling sectors. The following issues under dry and normal historical conditions were investigated: Supply/demand investment planning, societal cost of environmental flows, water market prices, and scarcity-sensitive charges for water rights. The talk discusses which hydro-economic modeling mode is used to study each of these issues and why; example results are shown and discussed. The topic of how hydro-economic models can be built and deployed effectively is covered along with how existing water utility operational and planning tools can be converted into hydro-economic models.

Some economics of global warming

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Schelling, T.C.

1992-03-01

The greenhouse effect itself is simple enough to understand and is not in any real dispute. What is in dispute is its magnitude over the coming century, its translation into changes in climates around the globe, and the impacts of those climate changes on human welfare and the natural environment. These are beyond the professional understanding of any single person. The sciences involved are too numerous and diverse. Demography, economics, biology, and the technology sciences are needed to project emissions; atmospheric chemistry, oceanography, biology, and meteorology are needed to translate emissions into climates; biology, agronomy, health sciences, economics, sociology, andmore » glaciology are needed to identify and assess impacts on human societies and natural ecosystems. And those are not all. There are expert judgments on large pieces of the subject, but no single person clothed in this panoply of disciplines has shown up or is likely to. This article makes an attempt to forecast the economic and social consequences of global warming due to anthropogenic greenhouse gases, and attempting to prevent it.« less

Integrating predictive information into an agro-economic model to guide agricultural management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Y.; Block, P.

2016-12-01

Skillful season-ahead climate predictions linked with responsive agricultural planning and management have the potential to reduce losses, if adopted by farmers, particularly for rainfed-dominated agriculture such as in Ethiopia. Precipitation predictions during the growing season in major agricultural regions of Ethiopia are used to generate predicted climate yield factors, which reflect the influence of precipitation amounts on crop yields and serve as inputs into an agro-economic model. The adapted model, originally developed by the International Food Policy Research Institute, produces outputs of economic indices (GDP, poverty rates, etc.) at zonal and national levels. Forecast-based approaches, in which farmers' actions are in response to forecasted conditions, are compared with no-forecast approaches in which farmers follow business as usual practices, expecting "average" climate conditions. The effects of farmer adoption rates, including the potential for reduced uptake due to poor predictions, and increasing forecast lead-time on economic outputs are also explored. Preliminary results indicate superior gains under forecast-based approaches.

Incorporating agricultural management into an earth system model for the Pacific Northwest region: Interactions between climate, hydrology, agriculture, and economics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chinnayakanahalli, K.; Adam, J. C.; Stockle, C.; Nelson, R.; Brady, M.; Rajagopalan, K.; Barber, M. E.; Dinesh, S.; Malek, K.; Yorgey, G.; Kruger, C.; Marsh, T.; Yoder, J.

2011-12-01

For better management and decision making in the face of climate change, earth system models must explicitly account for natural resource and agricultural management activities. Including crop system, water management, and economic models into an earth system modeling framework can help in answering questions related to the impacts of climate change on irrigation water and crop productivity, how agricultural producers can adapt to anticipated climate change, and how agricultural practices can mitigate climate change. Herein we describe the coupling of the Variability Infiltration Capacity (VIC) land surface model, which solves the water and energy balances of the hydrologic cycle at regional scales, with a crop-growth model, CropSyst. This new model, VIC-CropSyst, is the land surface model that will be used in a new regional-scale model development project focused on the Pacific Northwest, termed BioEarth. Here we describe the VIC-CropSyst coupling process and its application over the Columbia River basin (CRB) using agricultural-specific land cover information. The Washington State Department of Agriculture (WSDA) and U. S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) cropland data layers were used to identify agricultural land use patterns, in which both irrigated and dry land crops were simulated. The VIC-CropSyst model was applied over the CRB for the historical period of 1976 - 2006 to establish a baseline for surface water availability, irrigation demand, and crop production. The model was then applied under future (2030s) climate change scenarios derived from statistically-downscaled Global Circulation Models output under two emission scenarios (A1B and B1). Differences between simulated future and historical irrigation demand, irrigation water availability, and crop production were used in an economics model to identify the most economically-viable future cropping pattern. The economics model was run under varying scenarios of regional growth, trade, water pricing, and water capacity providing a spectrum of possible future cropping patterns. The resulting cropping patterns were then used in VIC-CropSyst to quantify the impacts of climate change, economic, and water management scenarios on crop production, and water resources availability. This modeling framework provides opportunities to study the interactions between human activities and complex natural processes and is a valuable tool for inclusion in an earth system model with the goal of informing land use and water management.

Real options analysis for photovoltaic project under climate uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Kyeongseok; Kim, Sejong; Kim, Hyoungkwan

2016-08-01

The decision on photovoltaic project depends on the level of climate environments. Changes in temperature and insolation affect photovoltaic output. It is important for investors to consider future climate conditions for determining investments on photovoltaic projects. We propose a real options-based framework to assess economic feasibility of photovoltaic project under climate change. The framework supports investors to evaluate climate change impact on photovoltaic projects under future climate uncertainty.

Land-use and carbon cycle responses to moderate climate change: implications for land-based mitigation?

PubMed

Humpenöder, Florian; Popp, Alexander; Stevanovic, Miodrag; Müller, Christoph; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; Bonsch, Markus; Dietrich, Jan Philipp; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Weindl, Isabelle; Biewald, Anne; Rolinski, Susanne

2015-06-02

Climate change has impacts on agricultural yields, which could alter cropland requirements and hence deforestation rates. Thus, land-use responses to climate change might influence terrestrial carbon stocks. Moreover, climate change could alter the carbon storage capacity of the terrestrial biosphere and hence the land-based mitigation potential. We use a global spatially explicit economic land-use optimization model to (a) estimate the mitigation potential of a climate policy that provides economic incentives for carbon stock conservation and enhancement, (b) simulate land-use and carbon cycle responses to moderate climate change (RCP2.6), and (c) investigate the combined effects throughout the 21st century. The climate policy immediately stops deforestation and strongly increases afforestation, resulting in a global mitigation potential of 191 GtC in 2100. Climate change increases terrestrial carbon stocks not only directly through enhanced carbon sequestration (62 GtC by 2100) but also indirectly through less deforestation due to higher crop yields (16 GtC by 2100). However, such beneficial climate impacts increase the potential of the climate policy only marginally, as the potential is already large under static climatic conditions. In the broader picture, this study highlights the importance of land-use dynamics for modeling carbon cycle responses to climate change in integrated assessment modeling.

Economic modeling of effects of climate change on the forest sector and mitigation options: a compendium of briefing papers

Treesearch

Ralph J. Alig

2010-01-01

This report is a compilation of six briefing papers based on literature reviews and syntheses, prepared for U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service policy analysts and decisionmakers about specific questions pertaining to climate change. The main topics addressed here are economic effects on the forest sector at the national and global scales, costs of forest...

Vulnerability to global environmental changes in Argentina: opportunities for upgrading regional water resources management strategies.

PubMed

Bereciartua, P J

2005-01-01

There is evidence of the increasing economic losses from extreme natural events during the last decades. These facts, thought to be triggered by environmental changes coupled with inefficient management and policies, highlight particularly exposed and vulnerable regions worldwide. Argentina faces several challenges associated with global environmental change and climate variability, especially related to water resources management including extreme floods and droughts. At the same time, the country's production capacity (i.e. natural resource-based commodities) and future development opportunities are closely tied to the sustainable development of its natural resource endowments. Given that vulnerability is registered not only by exposure to hazards (perturbations and stresses), but also resides in the sensitivity and resilience of the system experiencing such hazards, Argentina will need to improve its water management capacities to reduce its vulnerability to climate variability and change. This paper presents the basic components of the vulnerability analysis and suggests how it can be used to define efficient water management options.

U.S. Government Supports Low Emission Economic Growth (Fact Sheet)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Watson, A.; Sandor, D.; Butheau, M.

Countries around the world face the challenge of maintaining long-term sustainable economic growth and development under the threat of climate change. By identifying and pursuing a sustainable development pathway now, they are better positioned to reach their economic growth goals while addressing climate change impacts and lowering greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Low emission development strategies - development plans that promote sustainable social and economic development while reducing long-term GHG emissions - provide a pathway to preparing for a global low emission future. Partner country governments are working with the U.S. government through the Enhancing Capacity for Low Emission Development Strategiesmore » (EC-LEDS) program to further their national development objectives.« less

U.S. Government Supports Low Emission Economic Growth

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Countries around the world face the challenge of maintaining long-term sustainable economic growth and development under the threat of climate change. By identifying and pursuing a sustainable development pathway now, they are better positioned to reach their economic growth goals while addressing climate change impacts and lowering greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Low emission development strategies - development plans that promote sustainable social and economic development while reducing long-term GHG emissions - provide a pathway to preparing for a global low emission future. Partner country governments are working with the U.S. government through the Enhancing Capacity for Low Emission Development Strategiesmore » (EC-LEDS) program to further their national development objectives.« less

What makes up marginal lands and how can it be defined and classified?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ivanina, Vadym

2017-04-01

Definitions of marginal lands are often not explicit. The term "marginal" is not supported by either a precise definition or research to determine which lands fall into this category. To identify marginal lands terminology/methodology is used which varies between physical characteristics and the current land use of a site as basic perspective. The term 'Marginal' is most commonly followed by 'degraded' lands, and other widely used terms such as 'abandoned', 'idle', 'pasture', 'surplus agricultural land', 'Conservation Reserve Programme' (CRP)', 'barren and carbon-poor land', etc. Some terms are used synonymously. To the category of "marginal" lands are predominantly included lands which are excluded from cultivation due to economic infeasibility or physical restriction for growing conventional crops. Such sites may still have potential to be used for alternative agricultural practice, e.g. bioenergy feedstock production. The existing categorizing of marginal lands does not allow evaluating soil fertility potential or to define type and level of constrains for growing crops as the reason of a low practical value with regards to land use planning. A new marginal land classification has to be established and developed. This classification should be built on criteria of soil biophysical properties, ecologic, environment and climate handicaps for growing crops, be easy in use and of high practical value. The SEEMLA consortium made steps to build such a marginal land classification which is based on direct criteria depicting soil properties and constrains, and defining their productivity potential. By this classification marginal lands are divided into eleven categories: shallow rooting, low fertility, stony texture, sandy texture, clay texture, salinic, sodicic, acidic, overwet, eroded, and contaminated. The basis of this classification was taken criteria modified after and adapted from Regulation EU (1305)2013. To define an area of marginal lands with climate and economic limitations, SEEMLA established and implemented the term "area of land marginality" with a broader on marginal lands. This term includes marginal lands themselves, evaluation of climate constrains and economic efficiency to grow crops. This approach allows to define, categorize and classify marginal land by direct indicators of soil biophysical properties, ecologic and environment constrains, and provides additional evaluation of lands marginality with regards to suitability for growing crops based on climate criteria.

Representing climate change on public service television: A case study.

PubMed

Debrett, Mary

2017-05-01

Publicly funded broadcasters with a track record in science programming would appear ideally placed to represent climate change to the lay public. Free from the constraints of vested interests and the economic imperative, public service providers are better equipped to represent the scientific, social and economic aspects of climate change than commercial media, where ownership conglomeration, corporate lobbyists and online competition have driven increasingly tabloid coverage with an emphasis on controversy. This prime-time snapshot of the Australian Broadcasting Corporation's main television channel explores how the structural/rhetorical conventions of three established public service genres - a science programme, a documentary and a live public affairs talk show - impact on the representation of anthropogenic climate change. The study findings note implications for public trust, and discuss possibilities for innovation in the interests of better public understanding of climate change.

Improving energy sustainability for public buildings in Italian mountain communities.

PubMed

Mutani, Guglielmina; Cornaglia, Mauro; Berto, Massimo

2018-05-01

The objective of this work is to analyze and then optimize thermal energy consumptions of public buildings located within the mountain community of Lanzo, Ceronda and Casternone Valleys. Some measures have been proposed to reduce energy consumption and consequently the economic cost for energy production, as well as the harmful GHG emissions in the atmosphere. Initially, a study of the mountain territory has been carried out, because of its vast extension and climatic differences. Defined the communities and the buildings under investigation, energy dependant data were collected for the analysis of energy consumption monitoring: consumption data of three heating seasons, geometric buildings characteristics, type of opaque and transparent envelope, heating systems information with boiler performance and climatic data. Afterward, five buildings with critical energy performances were selected; for each of these buildings, different retrofit interventions have been hypothesized to reduce the energy consumption, with thermal insulation of vertical or horizontal structures, new windows or boiler substitution. The cost-optimal technique was used to choose the interventions that offered higher energy performance at lower costs; then a retrofit scenario has been planned with a specific financial investment. Finally, results showed possible future developments and scenarios related to buildings energy efficiency with regard to the topic of biomass exploitation and its local availability in this area. In this context, the biomass energy resource could to create a virtuous environmental, economic and social process, favouring also local development.

On the Water-Food Nexus: an Optimization Approach for Water and Food Security

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mortada, Sarah; Abou Najm, Majdi; Yassine, Ali; Alameddine, Ibrahim; El-Fadel, Mutasem

2016-04-01

Water and food security is facing increased challenges with population increase, climate and land use change, as well as resource depletion coupled with pollution and unsustainable practices. Coordinated and effective management of limited natural resources have become an imperative to meet these challenges by optimizing the usage of resources under various constraints. In this study, an optimization model is developed for optimal resource allocation towards sustainable water and food security under nutritional, socio-economic, agricultural, environmental, and natural resources constraints. The core objective of this model is to maximize the composite water-food security status by recommending an optimal water and agricultural strategy. The model balances between the healthy nutritional demand side and the constrained supply side while considering the supply chain in between. It equally ensures that the population achieves recommended nutritional guidelines and population food-preferences by quantifying an optimum agricultural and water policy through transforming optimum food demands into optimum cropping policy given the water and land footprints of each crop or agricultural product. Through this process, water and food security are optimized considering factors that include crop-food transformation (food processing), water footprints, crop yields, climate, blue and green water resources, irrigation efficiency, arable land resources, soil texture, and economic policies. The model performance regarding agricultural practices and sustainable food and water security was successfully tested and verified both at a hypothetical and pilot scale levels.

Social vulnerability and climate change: synthesis of literature

Treesearch

Kathy Lynn; Katharine MacKendrick; Ellen M. Donoghue

2011-01-01

The effects of climate change are expected to be more severe for some segments of society than others because of geographic location, the degree of association with climate-sensitive environments, and unique cultural, economic, or political characteristics of particular landscapes and human populations. Social vulnerability and equity in the context of climate change...

75 FR 69622 - Request for Comments on the Draft Revision of the Estuary Habitat Restoration Strategy Prepared...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-11-15

.... However, two issues-- climate change adaptation and socio-economic monitoring--were repeatedly raised. The... with climate change. The Council will use climate adaptation as a priority- setting tool, while still... stressors associated with climate change, (2) build conservation partnerships, (3) provide incentives to...

Managing climate change risks in rangeland systems [Chapter 15

Treesearch

Linda A. Joyce; Nadine A. Marshall

2017-01-01

The management of rangelands has long involved adapting to climate variability to ensure that economic enterprises remain viable and ecosystems sustainable; climate change brings the potential for change that surpasses the experience of humans within rangeland systems. Adaptation will require an intentionality to address the effects of climate change. Knowledge of...

Managing forest landscapes for climate change. Chapter 3.

Treesearch

Thomas R. Crow

2008-01-01

Climate change is the defining issue of the day and probably for many subsequent generations of resource managers. Although the public and therefore the policymakers have been slow in grasping the far-reaching consequences of climate change on our social and economic institutions, they are now desperately seeking options for dealing with novel climates, ecological...

Water scarcity under various socio-economic pathways and its potential effects on food production in the Yellow River basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yin, Yuanyuan; Tang, Qiuhong; Liu, Xingcai; Zhang, Xuejun

2017-02-01

Increasing population and socio-economic development have put great pressure on water resources of the Yellow River (YR) basin. The anticipated climate and socio-economic changes may further increase water stress. Many studies have investigated the changes in renewable water resources under various climate change scenarios, but few have considered the joint pressure from both climate change and socio-economic development. In this study, we assess water scarcity under various socio-economic pathways with emphasis on the impact of water scarcity on food production. The water demands in the 21st century are estimated based on the newly developed shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) and renewable water supply is estimated using the climate projections under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario. The assessment predicts that the renewable water resources would decrease slightly then increase. The domestic and industrial water withdrawals are projected to increase in the next a few decades and then remain at the high level or decrease slightly during the 21st century. The increase in water withdrawals will put the middle and lower reaches in a condition of severe water scarcity beginning in the next a few decades. If 40 % of the renewable water resources were used to sustain ecosystems, a portion of irrigated land would have to be converted to rain-fed agriculture, which would lead to a 2-11 % reduction in food production. This study highlights the links between water, food and ecosystems in a changing environment and suggests that trade-offs should be considered when developing regional adaptation strategies.

Global assessment of water policy vulnerability under uncertainty in water scarcity projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Greve, Peter; Kahil, Taher; Satoh, Yusuke; Burek, Peter; Fischer, Günther; Tramberend, Sylvia; Byers, Edward; Flörke, Martina; Eisner, Stephanie; Hanasaki, Naota; Langan, Simon; Wada, Yoshihide

2017-04-01

Water scarcity is a critical environmental issue worldwide, which has been driven by the significant increase in water extractions during the last century. In the coming decades, climate change is projected to further exacerbate water scarcity conditions in many regions around the world. At present, one important question for policy debate is the identification of water policy interventions that could address the mounting water scarcity problems. Main interventions include investing in water storage infrastructures, water transfer canals, efficient irrigation systems, and desalination plants, among many others. This type of interventions involve long-term planning, long-lived investments and some irreversibility in choices which can shape development of countries for decades. Making decisions on these water infrastructures requires anticipating the long term environmental conditions, needs and constraints under which they will function. This brings large uncertainty in the decision-making process, for instance from demographic or economic projections. But today, climate change is bringing another layer of uncertainty that make decisions even more complex. In this study, we assess in a probabilistic approach the uncertainty in global water scarcity projections following different socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and climate scenarios (RCPs) within the first half of the 21st century. By utilizing an ensemble of 45 future water scarcity projections based on (i) three state-of-the-art global hydrological models (PCR-GLOBWB, H08, and WaterGAP), (ii) five climate models, and (iii) three water scenarios, we have assessed changes in water scarcity and the associated uncertainty distribution worldwide. The water scenarios used here are developed by IIASA's Water Futures and Solutions (WFaS) Initiative. The main objective of this study is to improve the contribution of hydro-climatic information to effective policymaking by identifying spatial and temporal policy vulnerabilities under large uncertainty about the future socio-economic and climatic changes and to guide policymakers in charting a more sustainable pathway and avoiding maladaptive development pathways. The results show that water scarcity is increasing in up to 83% of all land area under a high-emission scenario (RCP 6.0-SSP3). Importantly, the range of uncertainty in projected water scarcity is increasing; in some regions by several orders of magnitude (e.g. sub-Saharan Africa, eastern Europe, Central Asia). This is further illustrated by focusing on a set of large river basins that will be subject both to substantial changes in basin-wide water scarcity and to strong increases in the overall range of uncertainty (e.g. the Niger, Indus, Yangtze). These conditions pose a significant challenge for water management options in those vulnerable basins, complicating decisions on needed investments in water supply infrastructure and other system improvements, and leading to the degradation of valuable resources such as non-renewable groundwater resources and water-dependent ecosystems. The results of this study call for careful and deliberative design of water policy interventions under a wide range of socio-economic and climate conditions.

Table of Policy Options for Smart Growth Fixes for Climate Adaptation and Resilience

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Sortable table of policy options discussed in the publication Smart Growth Fixes for Climate Adaptation and Resilience, which can help local governments prepare for climate change while gaining other environmental, economic, health, and social benefits

Driving forces in energy-related CO2 emissions in south and east coastal China: commonality and variations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, C.; Liu, Y.; Jin, J.; Wei, T.

2015-12-01

East and south coastal China contributes to respectively about 30% and 8% of CO2 emissions in China and the world, and therefore play a critical role in achieving the national goal of emission reduction to mitigate the global warming. It also serves as a benchmark for the less developed regions of China, in terms of achieving the developed world's human development standard under lower per capita emissions. We analyze the driving forces of emissions in this region and their provincial characteristics by applying the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index method. Our findings show that emissions have been doubled during the period from 2000 to 2012, along with three and two folds increase in economy and energy consumption, respectively. This suggests a persistent lock between economic growth and emissions, even in this socioeconomically advanced region in China. Provincial difference in annual emission growth reveals three distinguished low-carbon developmental stages, owning mainly to the effectiveness of energy efficiency in reducing emission growth. This may explain why previous climate policies have aimed to reduce carbon intensity. These results indicate that targeted measures on enhancing energy efficiency in the short term and de-carbonization of both the economic and energy structure in the long term can lower the emission growth more effectively and efficiently. They also suggest that factor-driven emission reduction strategies and policies are needed in the geographically and socioeconomically similar regions.

Water use impacts of future transport fuels: role of California's climate policy & National biofuel policies (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Teter, J.; Yeh, S.; Mishra, G. S.; Tiedeman, K.; Yang, C.

2013-12-01

In the coming decades, growing demand for energy and water and the need to address climate change will create huge challenges for energy policy and natural resource management. Synergistic strategies must be developed to conserve and use both resources more efficiently. California (CA) is a prime example of a region where policymakers have began to incorporate water planning in energy infrastructure development. But more must be done as CA transforms its energy system to meet its climate target. We analyze lifecycle water use of current and future transport fuel consumption to evaluate impacts & formulate mitigation strategies for the state at the watershed scale. Four 'bounding cases' for CA's future transportation demand to year 2030 are projected for analysis: two scenarios that only meet the 2020 climate target (business-as-usual, BAU) with high / low water use intensity, and two that meet long-term climate target with high / low water use intensity (Fig 1). Our study focuses on the following energy supply chains: (a) liquid fuels from conventional/unconventional oil & gas, (b) thermoelectric and renewable generation technologies, and (c) biofuels (Fig 2-3). We develop plausible siting scenarios that bound the range of possible water sources, impacts, and dispositions to provide insights into how to best allocate water and limit water impacts of energy development. We further identify constraints & opportunities to improve water use efficiency and highlight salient policy relevant lessons. For biofuels we extend our scope to the entire US as most of the biofuels consumed in California are and will be produced from outside of the state. We analyze policy impacts that capture both direct & indirect land use effects across scenarios, thus addressing the major shortcomings of existing studies, which ignore spatial heterogeneity as well as economic effects of crop displacement and the effects of crop intensification and extensification. We use the agronomic-hydrologic model EPIC to capture both green water (GW) and blue water (BW) use at a ~10 square km resolution among three scenarios: (1) a counterfactual scenario with no national biofuel policy, (2) current Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS) mandates, and (3) a proposed national Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) plus the RFS scenario. Inputs to EPIC are spatially explicit: (a) cropping areas and yields as projected by a partial equilibrium economic model, (b) daily weather data, (c) soil properties (d) N fertilizer application, and (e) irrigation sources and volumes, by crop (Fig 4-5). We assess the differences among biofuel scenarios from 2007-2035 along the following metrics: (1) crop area expansion on prime & marginal lands (Fig 6), (2) Crop-specific & overall annual/seasonal water balances including (2a) water inflows (irrigation & precipitation), (2b) crop-atmosphere interactions: (evaporation & transpiration) and (2c) soil-water flows (runoff & soil infiltration), in mm3 /acre. We found differential water use impacts among biofuel scenarios are a primarily a function of (1) land use conversion, in particular that of formerly uncropped land classes (2) irrigation practices, (3) feedstock water use efficiency, and (4) the longer growing season and a predominance of rainfed cultivation of dedicated biofuel feedstocks. Fig 1-6 available at the linked urls.

Formulation, General Features and Global Calibration of a Bioenergetically-Constrained Fishery Model

PubMed Central

Bianchi, Daniele; Galbraith, Eric D.

2017-01-01

Human exploitation of marine resources is profoundly altering marine ecosystems, while climate change is expected to further impact commercially-harvested fish and other species. Although the global fishery is a highly complex system with many unpredictable aspects, the bioenergetic limits on fish production and the response of fishing effort to profit are both relatively tractable, and are sure to play important roles. Here we describe a generalized, coupled biological-economic model of the global marine fishery that represents both of these aspects in a unified framework, the BiOeconomic mArine Trophic Size-spectrum (BOATS) model. BOATS predicts fish production according to size spectra as a function of net primary production and temperature, and dynamically determines harvest spectra from the biomass density and interactive, prognostic fishing effort. Within this framework, the equilibrium fish biomass is determined by the economic forcings of catchability, ex-vessel price and cost per unit effort, while the peak harvest depends on the ecosystem parameters. Comparison of a large ensemble of idealized simulations with observational databases, focusing on historical biomass and peak harvests, allows us to narrow the range of several uncertain ecosystem parameters, rule out most parameter combinations, and select an optimal ensemble of model variants. Compared to the prior distributions, model variants with lower values of the mortality rate, trophic efficiency, and allometric constant agree better with observations. For most acceptable parameter combinations, natural mortality rates are more strongly affected by temperature than growth rates, suggesting different sensitivities of these processes to climate change. These results highlight the utility of adopting large-scale, aggregated data constraints to reduce model parameter uncertainties and to better predict the response of fisheries to human behaviour and climate change. PMID:28103280

How does the photosynthetic machinery of invasive perennial pepperweed allow it to adapt and respond to changes in California’s climate?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Runkle, B.; Sonnentag, O.; Detto, M.; Liang, X.; Dracup, J. A.; Baldocchi, D. D.

2009-12-01

Perennial pepperweed (Lepidium latifolium) is an ecological and economic nuisance to much of the western United States, where its invasion threatens a diverse set of land areas. We characterized the leaf-level parameters governing pepperweed’s photosynthesis through field measurements and determine through modelling simulations that it is well-adapted to resource procural in present and predicted future climates. These measurements are taken under field conditions for the duration of a long growing season (a nine month period in 2008) in a peatlands pasture in California’s Sacramento-San Juaquin River Delta. Through carbon and light response curves, pepperweed is found to have a high capacity for taking up carbon dioxide in either RuBP or Rubisco-limited situations, and its physiology is well-adapted to dry, hot and saline environments. Numerical modelling of the A-Ci curves suggests that internal (or mesophyll) conductance plays a negligible role in limiting carbon uptake. Pepperweed’s stomata are found to allow more conductance than predicted by models for periods of lower vapor pressure deficit, when it may be more water-use efficient to photosynthesize. Moreover, its high leaf nitrogen content (2-6% nitrogen by dry leaf mass), particularly at the start of the growing season, suggests a plant highly capable of out-competing native and economic species in acquisitioning local resources. These parameters are used in numerical exercises to move from the leaf to the field scale, where they are supported by eddy covariance measurements. This model is then used to evaluate and predict the response of pepperweed to seasonal and climatic change. The results presented here should provide a valuable point of comparison to ecologists and land managers interested in the spread of L. latifolium.

Formulation, General Features and Global Calibration of a Bioenergetically-Constrained Fishery Model.

PubMed

Carozza, David A; Bianchi, Daniele; Galbraith, Eric D

2017-01-01

Human exploitation of marine resources is profoundly altering marine ecosystems, while climate change is expected to further impact commercially-harvested fish and other species. Although the global fishery is a highly complex system with many unpredictable aspects, the bioenergetic limits on fish production and the response of fishing effort to profit are both relatively tractable, and are sure to play important roles. Here we describe a generalized, coupled biological-economic model of the global marine fishery that represents both of these aspects in a unified framework, the BiOeconomic mArine Trophic Size-spectrum (BOATS) model. BOATS predicts fish production according to size spectra as a function of net primary production and temperature, and dynamically determines harvest spectra from the biomass density and interactive, prognostic fishing effort. Within this framework, the equilibrium fish biomass is determined by the economic forcings of catchability, ex-vessel price and cost per unit effort, while the peak harvest depends on the ecosystem parameters. Comparison of a large ensemble of idealized simulations with observational databases, focusing on historical biomass and peak harvests, allows us to narrow the range of several uncertain ecosystem parameters, rule out most parameter combinations, and select an optimal ensemble of model variants. Compared to the prior distributions, model variants with lower values of the mortality rate, trophic efficiency, and allometric constant agree better with observations. For most acceptable parameter combinations, natural mortality rates are more strongly affected by temperature than growth rates, suggesting different sensitivities of these processes to climate change. These results highlight the utility of adopting large-scale, aggregated data constraints to reduce model parameter uncertainties and to better predict the response of fisheries to human behaviour and climate change.

Modelling regional cropping patterns under scenarios of climate and socio-economic change in Hungary.

PubMed

Li, Sen; Juhász-Horváth, Linda; Pintér, László; Rounsevell, Mark D A; Harrison, Paula A

2018-05-01

Impacts of socio-economic, political and climatic change on agricultural land systems are inherently uncertain. The role of regional and local-level actors is critical in developing effective policy responses that accommodate such uncertainty in a flexible and informed way across governance levels. This study identified potential regional challenges in arable land use systems, which may arise from climate and socio-economic change for two counties in western Hungary: Veszprém and Tolna. An empirically-grounded, agent-based model was developed from an extensive farmer household survey about local land use practices. The model was used to project future patterns of arable land use under four localised, stakeholder-driven scenarios of plausible future socio-economic and climate change. The results show strong differences in farmers' behaviour and current agricultural land use patterns between the two regions, highlighting the need to implement focused policy at the regional level. For instance, policy that encourages local food security may need to support improvements in the capacity of farmers to adapt to physical constraints in Veszprém and farmer access to social capital and environmental awareness in Tolna. It is further suggested that the two regions will experience different challenges to adaptation under possible future conditions (up to 2100). For example, Veszprém was projected to have increased fallow land under a scenario with high inequality, ineffective institutions and higher-end climate change, implying risks of land abandonment. By contrast, Tolna was projected to have a considerable decline in major cereals under a scenario assuming a de-globalising future with moderate climate change, inferring challenges to local food self-sufficiency. The study provides insight into how socio-economic and physical factors influence the selection of crop rotation plans by farmers in western Hungary and how farmer behaviour may affect future risks to agricultural land systems under environmental change. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Bio-physical vs. Economic Uncertainty in the Analysis of Climate Change Impacts on World Agriculture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hertel, T. W.; Lobell, D. B.

2010-12-01

Accumulating evidence suggests that agricultural production could be greatly affected by climate change, but there remains little quantitative understanding of how these agricultural impacts would affect economic livelihoods in poor countries. The recent paper by Hertel, Burke and Lobell (GEC, 2010) considers three scenarios of agricultural impacts of climate change, corresponding to the fifth, fiftieth, and ninety fifth percentiles of projected yield distributions for the world’s crops in 2030. They evaluate the resulting changes in global commodity prices, national economic welfare, and the incidence of poverty in a set of 15 developing countries. Although the small price changes under the medium scenario are consistent with previous findings, their low productivity scenario reveals the potential for much larger food price changes than reported in recent studies which have hitherto focused on the most likely outcomes. The poverty impacts of price changes under the extremely adverse scenario are quite heterogeneous and very significant in some population strata. They conclude that it is critical to look beyond central case climate shocks and beyond a simple focus on yields and highly aggregated poverty impacts. In this paper, we conduct a more formal, systematic sensitivity analysis (SSA) with respect to uncertainty in the biophysical impacts of climate change on agriculture, by explicitly specifying joint distributions for global yield changes - this time focusing on 2050. This permits us to place confidence intervals on the resulting price impacts and poverty results which reflect the uncertainty inherited from the biophysical side of the analysis. We contrast this with the economic uncertainty inherited from the global general equilibrium model (GTAP), by undertaking SSA with respect to the behavioral parameters in that model. This permits us to assess which type of uncertainty is more important for regional price and poverty outcomes. Finally, we undertake a combined SSA, wherein climate change-induced productivity shocks are permitted to interact with the uncertain economic parameters. This permits us to examine potential interactions between the two sources of uncertainty.

Climate change mitigation: the potential of agriculture as a renewable energy source in Nigeria.

PubMed

Elum, Z A; Modise, D M; Nhamo, G

2017-02-01

Energy is pivotal to the economic development of every nation. However, its production and utilization leads to undesirable carbon emissions that aggravate global warming which results in climate change. The agriculture sector is a significant user of energy. However, it has the potential to be a major contributor to Nigeria's energy supply mix in meeting its energy deficit. More so, in the light of current and impending adverse effects of climate change, there is a need to contain GHG's emissions. This paper focuses on bioenergy utilization as a climate change mitigation strategy and one that can, through effective waste management, enhance sustainable economic development in Nigeria. The paper employed a critical discourse analysis to examine the potential of the agricultural sector to provide biofuels from energy crops and other biomass sources. We conclude that Nigeria can reduce its GHG emissions and greatly contribute to global climate change mitigation while also alleviating its energy supply deficit if the agricultural and municipal wastes readily available in its towns and cities are converted to bioenergy. Such engagements will not only promote a clean and healthy environment but also create jobs for economic empowerment and a better standard of living for the people.

Economic impacts of climate change on agriculture: the AgMIP approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Delincé, Jacques; Ciaian, Pavel; Witzke, Heinz-Peter

2015-01-01

The current paper investigates the long-term global impacts on crop productivity under different climate scenarios using the AgMIP approach (Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project). The paper provides horizontal model intercomparison from 11 economic models as well as a more detailed analysis of the simulated effects from the Common Agricultural Policy Regionalized Impact (CAPRI) model to systematically compare its performance with other AgMIP models and specifically for the Chinese agriculture. CAPRI is a comparative static partial equilibrium model extensively used for medium and long-term economic and environmental policy impact applications. The results indicate that, at the global level, the climate change will cause an agricultural productivity decrease (between -2% and -15% by 2050), a food price increase (between 1.3% and 56%) and an expansion of cultivated area (between 1% and 4%) by 2050. The results for China indicate that the climate change effects tend to be smaller than the global impacts. The CAPRI-simulated effects are, in general, close to the median across all AgMIP models. Model intercomparison analyses reveal consistency in terms of direction of change to climate change but relatively strong heterogeneity in the magnitude of the effects between models.

Farmers' perceptions of climate change and agricultural adaptation strategies in rural Sahel.

PubMed

Mertz, Ole; Mbow, Cheikh; Reenberg, Anette; Diouf, Awa

2009-05-01

Farmers in the Sahel have always been facing climatic variability at intra- and inter-annual and decadal time scales. While coping and adaptation strategies have traditionally included crop diversification, mobility, livelihood diversification, and migration, singling out climate as a direct driver of changes is not so simple. Using focus group interviews and a household survey, this study analyzes the perceptions of climate change and the strategies for coping and adaptation by sedentary farmers in the savanna zone of central Senegal. Households are aware of climate variability and identify wind and occasional excess rainfall as the most destructive climate factors. Households attribute poor livestock health, reduced crop yields and a range of other problems to climate factors, especially wind. However, when questions on land use and livelihood change are not asked directly in a climate context, households and groups assign economic, political, and social rather than climate factors as the main reasons for change. It is concluded that the communities studied have a high awareness of climate issues, but climatic narratives are likely to influence responses when questions mention climate. Change in land use and livelihood strategies is driven by adaptation to a range of factors of which climate appears not to be the most important. Implications for policy-making on agricultural and economic development will be to focus on providing flexible options rather than specific solutions to uncertain climate.

Food for Thought: Crop Yields in the Columbia River Basin in an Altered Future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rajagopalan, K.; Chinnayakanahalli, K.; Nelson, R.; Stockle, C.; Kruger, C.; Brady, M.; Adam, J. C.

2013-12-01

Growth of global population and food consumption in the next several decades is expected to result in a food security challenge. Strategies to address this challenge, such as enhancing agricultural productivity and resiliency, need to be considered within the context of a full range of plausible consequences so as to identify investments that create win-win-win scenarios for the environment, economy, and society. Regional earth systems models can provide the necessary scale-appropriate framework to inform the decision making context for adaptation strategies, especially in the context of global change. In an altered future, changes to climate, technology and socioeconomics affect regional agriculture both directly and indirectly. These effects are not independent and an integrated process-based model may better capture unanticipated non-linear and non-monotonic responses and feedbacks over time . BioEarth is a research initiative designed to explore the coupling of multiple stand-alone earth systems models to generate usable information for agricultural and natural resource decision making at the regional scale at decadal time-steps. This project focuses on the U.S. Pacific Northwest (PNW) region and is a framework that integrates atmospheric, terrestrial, aquatic, and economic models. We apply component models of BioEarth to the Columbia River basin in the PNW to study the direct and indirect impacts of climate change on regional irrigated and dryland crop yields for a variety of annual and perennial crops. Results indicate that the net effect of climate change on crop yields is dependent on the crop type. There is a negative effect of temperature on yields for most crops. Dryland winter wheat is a notable exception. With warming, although the available growing season increases, faster thermal accumulation results in a shorter time to maturity. Precipitation changes in the region have a positive impact on dryland agriculture. Carbon dioxide (CO2) fertilization has a positive impact on crop yields for most crops. This positive impact is minimal for corn which is a C4 crop that is already CO2 efficient. The net response is an increase in yields for dryland agriculture and depends on the crop type for irrigated agriculture. Although, climate change results in increased water shortages and water rights curtailment in the region, this does not translate into an increased negative effect on yields. This could be attributed to higher water use efficiency under elevated CO2 levels as well crops getting through growth stages earlier in the season with wetter spring conditions. The non linear and non monotonic nature of the response of climate change on crop yields is discussed. In accounting for biophysical effects of climate change on crop yields, socio-economic effects cannot be ignored because biophysical effects are nested with the framework of human decision making. We also discuss our results in the context of socioeconomic factors . Current results assume no adaptation strategies and incorporating this is our next step.

Sustainability of socio-hydro system with changing value and preference to an uncertain future climate and economic conditions.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roobavannan, Mahendran; Kandasamy, Jaya; Vigneswaran, Saravanamuththu; Sivapalan, Murugesu

2016-04-01

Water-human systems are coupled and display co-evolutionary dynamics influenced by society's values and preference. This has been observed in the Murrumbidgee basin, Australia where water usage initially focused on agriculture production and until mid-1990's favoured agriculture. This turned around as society became more concerned about the degradation of ecosystems and ultimately water was reallocated back towards the environment. This new water management adversely impacted the agriculture sector and created economic stress in the basin. The basin communities were able to transform and cope with water allocation favouring the environment through sectoral transformation facilitated by movement of capital in a free economy, supported by appropriate strategies and funding. This was helped by the adaptive capacity of people through reemployment in other economic sectors of the basin economy, unemployment for a period of time and migration out of the basin, and crop diversification. This study looks to the future and focuses on how water managers could be informed and prepare for un-foreseen issues coming out of societies changing values and preferences and emerging as different systems in the basin interact with each other at different times and speed. The issues of this type that concern the Murray Darling Basin Authority include a renewed focus and priority on food production due to food scarcity; increased impact and frequency of natural disasters (eg. climate change); regional economic diversification due to the growth of peri-urban development in the basin; institutional capacity for water reform due to new political paradigms (eg. new water sharing plans); and improvement in science and technology (eg. farm practices, water efficiency, water reuse). To undertake this, the study uses a coupled socio-hydrological dynamical system that model the major drivers of changing economic conditions, society values and preference, climatic condition and science and technology. The dynamical system is represented by a suite of differential equations that can evolve with time. The mathematical property (Eigen values and vectors) of complex dynamical system is used to understand the system dynamics and look for signs of system collapse. Bifurcation analysis of the dynamical system defines the limits of different model parameters (safe zone) where system collapse is avoided and to maintain a sustainable society. The safe zone is interpreted in a manner that allows water managers to understand the possible ways of influencing the water-human system and understanding the consequences. Keywords: socio-hydrology, value and preference, dynamical system modelling, water management.

GLANCE - calculatinG heaLth impActs of atmospheric pollutioN in a Changing climatE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vogel, Leif; Faria, Sérgio; Markandya, Anil

2016-04-01

Current annual global estimates of premature deaths from poor air quality are estimated in the range of 2.6-4.4 million, and 2050 projections are expected to double against 2010 levels. In Europe, annual economic burdens are estimated at around 750 bn €. Climate change will further exacerbate air pollution burdens; therefore, a better understanding of the economic impacts on human societies has become an area of intense investigation. European research efforts are being carried out within the MACC project series, which started in 2005. The outcome of this work has been integrated into a European capacity for Earth Observation, the Copernicus Atmospheric Monitoring Service (CAMS). In MACC/CAMS, key pollutant concentrations are computed at the European scale and globally by employing chemically-driven advanced transport models. The project GLANCE (calculatinG heaLth impActs of atmospheric pollutioN in a Changing climatE) aims at developing an integrated assessment model for calculating the health impacts and damage costs of air pollution at different physical scales. It combines MACC/CAMS (assimilated Earth Observations, an ensemble of chemical transport models and state of the art ECWMF weather forecasting) with downscaling based on in-situ network measurements. The strengthening of modelled projections through integration with empirical evidence reduces errors and uncertainties in the health impact projections and subsequent economic cost assessment. In addition, GLANCE will yield improved data accuracy at different time resolutions. This project is a multidisciplinary approach which brings together expertise from natural sciences and socio economic fields. Here, its general approach will be presented together with first results for the years 2007 - 2012 on the European scale. The results on health impacts and economic burdens are compared to existing assessments.

Sources of uncertainty in climate change impacts on groundwater recharge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holman, I. P.

2007-12-01

This paper assesses the significance of the many sources of uncertainty in future groundwater recharge estimation, based on lessons learnt from an integrated approach to assessing the regional impacts of climate and socio-economic change on groundwater recharge in East Anglia, UK. Many factors affect simulations of future groundwater recharge including changed precipitation and temperature regimes, coastal flooding, urbanization, woodland establishment, and changes in cropping, rotations and management practices. Stochastic modelling of potential recharge showed median annual recharge decreasing under a High emissions future from 75 mm (1961-90) to 56 mm in the 2020s and 45 mm in the 2050s. However, the median values for individual simulations ranged from 46-75 mm (2020s) and 30-71 mm (2050s) highlighting a decreasing but uncertain trend. The impacts of (and uncertainty in) the climate scenarios are generally regionally more important than those of the socio-economic scenarios. However, locally, the impacts of the socio-economic scenarios can be significant, especially where there are large increases in urbanization, agricultural land cover, bioenergy production, or agricultural management practices. For example, management of soil conditions can increase potential groundwater recharge by around 5 %, but poor management can further reduce potential recharge by up to 15 %. The paper will demonstrate that to focus on the direct impacts of climate change is to neglect the potentially important role of policy, societal values and economic processes in shaping the landscape above aquifers. If the likely consequences of future changes of groundwater recharge, resulting from both climate and socio-economic change, are to be assessed, hydrogeologists must increasingly work with researchers from other disciplines, such as socio-economists, agricultural modellers and soil scientists

Business Case for Energy Efficiency in Support of Climate Change Mitigation, Economic and Societal Benefits in the United States

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bojda, Nicholas; Ke, Jing; de la Rue du Can, Stephane

2011-06-01

This study seeks to provide policymakers and other stakeholders with actionable information towards a road map for reducing energy consumption in the most cost-effective way. A major difference between the current study and some others is that we focus on individual equipment types that might be the subject of policies - such as labels, energy performance standards, and incentives - to affect market transformation in the short term, and on high-efficiency technology options that are available today. The approach of the study is to assess the impact of short-term actions on long-term impacts. “Short term” market transformation is assumed tomore » occur by 2015, while “long-term” energy demand reduction impacts are assessed in 2030. In the intervening years, most but not all of the equipment studied will turn over completely. The 15-year time frame is significant for many products however, indicating that delay of implementation postpones impacts such as net economic savings and mitigation of emissions of carbon dioxide. Such delays would result in putting in place energy-wasting technologies, postponing improvement until the end of their service life, or potentially resulting in expensive investment either in additional energy supplies or in early replacement to achieve future energy or emissions reduction targets.« less

Volume sharing of reservoir water

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dudley, Norman J.

1988-05-01

Previous models optimize short-, intermediate-, and long-run irrigation decision making in a simplified river valley system characterized by highly variable water supplies and demands for a single decision maker controlling both reservoir releases and farm water use. A major problem in relaxing the assumption of one decision maker is communicating the stochastic nature of supplies and demands between reservoir and farm managers. In this paper, an optimizing model is used to develop release rules for reservoir management when all users share equally in releases, and computer simulation is used to generate an historical time sequence of announced releases. These announced releases become a state variable in a farm management model which optimizes farm area-to-irrigate decisions through time. Such modeling envisages the use of growing area climatic data by the reservoir authority to gauge water demand and the transfer of water supply data from reservoir to farm managers via computer data files. Alternative model forms, including allocating water on a priority basis, are discussed briefly. Results show lower mean aggregate farm income and lower variance of aggregate farm income than in the single decision-maker case. This short-run economic efficiency loss coupled with likely long-run economic efficiency losses due to the attenuated nature of property rights indicates the need for quite different ways of integrating reservoir and farm management.

Nitrogen Nutrition of Fruit Trees to Reconcile Productivity and Environmental Concerns

PubMed Central

Carranca, Corina; Brunetto, Gustavo; Tagliavini, Massimo

2018-01-01

Although perennial fruit crops represent 1% of global agricultural land, they are of a great economic importance in world trade and in the economy of many regions. The perennial woody nature of fruit trees, their physiological stages of growth, the root distribution pattern, and the presence of herbaceous vegetation in alleys make orchard systems efficient in the use and recycling of nitrogen (N). The present paper intends to review the existing literature on N nutrition of young and mature deciduous and evergreen fruit trees with special emphasis to temperate and Mediterranean climates. There are two major sources of N contributing to vegetative tree growth and reproduction: root N uptake and internal N cycling. Optimisation of the use of external and internal N sources is important for a sustainable fruit production, as N use efficiency by young and mature fruit trees is generally lower than 55% and losses of fertilizer N may occur with the consequent economic and environmental concern. Organic alternatives to mineral N fertilizer like the application of manure, compost, mulching, and cover crops are scarcely used in perennial fruit trees, in spite of the fact that society’s expectations call for more sustainable production techniques and the demand for organic fruits is increasing. PMID:29320450

The economics of soil C sequestration and agricultural emissions abatement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alexander, P.; Paustian, K.; Smith, P.; Moran, D.

2015-04-01

Carbon is a critical component of soil vitality and is crucial to our ability to produce food. Carbon sequestered in soils also provides a further regulating ecosystem service, valued as the avoided damage from global climate change. We consider the demand and supply attributes that underpin and constrain the emergence of a market value for this vital global ecosystem service: markets being what economists regard as the most efficient institutions for allocating scarce resources to the supply and consumption of valuable goods. This paper considers how a potentially large global supply of soil carbon sequestration is reduced by economic and behavioural constraints that impinge on the emergence of markets, and alternative public policies that can efficiently transact demand for the service from private and public sector agents. In essence, this is a case of significant market failure. In the design of alternative policy options, we consider whether soil carbon mitigation is actually cost-effective relative to other measures in agriculture and elsewhere in the economy, and the nature of behavioural incentives that hinder policy options. We suggest that reducing the cost and uncertainties of mitigation through soil-based measures is crucial for improving uptake. Monitoring and auditing processes will also be required to eventually facilitate wide-scale adoption of these measures.

Agriculture and climate change: Potential for mitigation in Spain.

PubMed

Albiac, Jose; Kahil, Taher; Notivol, Eduardo; Calvo, Elena

2017-08-15

Agriculture and forestry activities are one of the many sources of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, but they are also sources of low-cost opportunities to mitigate these emissions compared to other economic sectors. This paper provides a first estimate of the potential for mitigation in the whole Spanish agriculture. A set of mitigation measures are selected for their cost-effectiveness and abatement potential and an efficient mix of these measures is identified with reference to a social cost of carbon of 40 €/tCO 2 e. This mix of measures includes adjusting crop fertilization and managing forests for carbon sequestration. Results indicate that by using the efficient mix of mitigation measures the annual abatement potential could reach 10 million tCO 2 e, which represents 28% of current agricultural emissions in Spain. This potential could further increase if the social cost of carbon rises covering the costs of applying manure to crops. Results indicate also that economic instruments such as input and emission taxes could be only ancillary measures to address mitigation in agriculture. These findings can be used to support the mitigation efforts in Spain and guide policymakers in the design of country-level mitigation strategies. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Economic impact of climate on water management in Oklahoma

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Eddy, A.

1981-08-01

Topics and authors are listed below: The Oklahoma Water Plan, Jim Schuelin; The Garber-Wellington Research Project, Odell Morgan; The Tulsa Urban Study, Howard Chalker; Some Civil Defense/Flood Warning Problems, Ron Hill; The Impact of Climate on Rural Water Management, Ellen Cooter; Economic Models for Water Resource and Climate Impact Applications, William S. Cooter; Flood Forecasting, Jack Bowman; Small Basin Rainfall Characteristics via Factor Analysis, John M. Harlin; Radar Clouds Over Oklahoma, Bernard N. Meisner; The Oklahoma Climatological Survey Data Bank, Amos Eddy; Derived Variables: Climatic and Hydrologic Data from Weather Station Records, Jayne M. Salisbury; Precipitation Estimates Using Radar, Kenmore » Wilk and David Zittel; and A Water Control Data System, Joe Z. Durham.« less

On the Role of Hyper-arid Regions within the Virtual Water Trade Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aggrey, James; Alshamsi, Aamena; Molini, Annalisa

2016-04-01

Climate change, economic development, and population growth are bound to increasingly impact global water resources, posing a significant threat to the sustainable development of arid regions, where water consumption highly exceeds the natural carrying capacity, population growth rate is high, and climate variability is going to impact both water consumption and availability. Virtual Water Trade (VWT) - i.e. the international trade network of water-intensive products - has been proposed as a possible solution to optimize the allocation of water resources on the global scale. By increasing food availability and lowering food prices it may in fact help the rapid development of water-scarce regions. The structure of the VWT network has been analyzed by a number of authors both in connection with trade policies, socioeconomic constrains and agricultural efficiency. However a systematic analysis of the structure and the dynamics of the VWT network conditional to aridity, climatic forcing and energy availability, is still missing. Our goal is hence to analyze the role of arid and hyper-arid regions within the VWN under diverse climatic, demographic, and energy constraints with an aim to contribute to the ongoing Energy-Water-Food nexus discussion. In particular, we focus on the hyper-arid lands of the Arabian Peninsula, the role they play in the global network and the assessment of their specific criticalities, as reflected in the VWN resilience.

Energy prices will play an important role in determining global land use in the twenty first century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steinbuks, Jevgenijs; Hertel, Thomas W.

2013-03-01

Global land use research to date has focused on quantifying uncertainty effects of three major drivers affecting competition for land: the uncertainty in energy and climate policies affecting competition between food and biofuels, the uncertainty of climate impacts on agriculture and forestry, and the uncertainty in the underlying technological progress driving efficiency of food, bioenergy and timber production. The market uncertainty in fossil fuel prices has received relatively less attention in the global land use literature. Petroleum and natural gas prices affect both the competitiveness of biofuels and the cost of nitrogen fertilizers. High prices put significant pressure on global land supply and greenhouse gas emissions from terrestrial systems, while low prices can moderate demands for cropland. The goal of this letter is to assess and compare the effects of these core uncertainties on the optimal profile for global land use and land-based GHG emissions over the coming century. The model that we develop integrates distinct strands of agronomic, biophysical and economic literature into a single, intertemporally consistent, analytical framework, at global scale. Our analysis accounts for the value of land-based services in the production of food, first- and second-generation biofuels, timber, forest carbon and biodiversity. We find that long-term uncertainty in energy prices dominates the climate impacts and climate policy uncertainties emphasized in prior research on global land use.

Introduction of Energy and Climate Mitigation Policy Issues in Energy - Environment Model of Latvia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klavs, G.; Rekis, J.

2016-12-01

The present research is aimed at contributing to the Latvian national climate policy development by projecting total GHG emissions up to 2030, by evaluating the GHG emission reduction path in the non-ETS sector at different targets set for emissions reduction and by evaluating the obtained results within the context of the obligations defined by the EU 2030 policy framework for climate and energy. The method used in the research was bottom-up, linear programming optimisation model MARKAL code adapted as the MARKAL-Latvia model with improvements for perfecting the integrated assessment of climate policy. The modelling results in the baseline scenario, reflecting national economic development forecasts and comprising the existing GHG emissions reduction policies and measures, show that in 2030 emissions will increase by 19.1 % compared to 2005. GHG emissions stabilisation and reduction in 2030, compared to 2005, were researched in respective alternative scenarios. Detailed modelling and analysis of the Latvian situation according to the scenario of non-ETS sector GHG emissions stabilisation and reduction in 2030 compared to 2005 have revealed that to implement a cost effective strategy of GHG emissions reduction first of all a policy should be developed that ensures effective absorption of the available energy efficiency potential in all consumer sectors. The next group of emissions reduction measures includes all non-ETS sectors (industry, services, agriculture, transport, and waste management).

A Water Grid for the UK

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leathard, A.; Fowler, H. J.; Kilsby, C. G.

2009-04-01

Anthropogenically aggravated climate change associated with intensive expansion of the global economy has increased the demand for water whilst simultaneously altering natural variability in its distribution, straining water resources unsustainably and inequitably in many parts of the world, increasing drought risk, and encouraging decision-makers to reconsider the security of water supply. Indeed, in the absence of additional resource development, contemporary planning forecasts imply increased water stress across much of the United Kingdom. The regulatory authorities of the UK currently promote increased efficiency of water delivery and consumption combined with a portfolio of financial instruments as a means of reducing water stress, maintaining present levels of consumer service without significant further exploitation of the environment. Despite an increasingly sophisticated understanding of climate change and its effects, significant uncertainty remains in the quantification of its impacts on the water sector, and questions persist as to the effectiveness of such demand management measures compared to that of more traditional infrastructure improvements. Faced with possible futures provided for by detrimentally over-stressed resources, what opportunities remain for future strategic development in the UK? Is there a single national strategy that is both politically and socially acceptable? This ongoing study aims to evolve robust national adaptation strategies by quantifying the projected impacts of climate change across mainland UK using multi-model and perturbed-physics ensembles of projected future climate, encapsulating uncertainties in a scenario-driven integrated water resources model incorporating socio-economic elements.

A Systems Perspective on Responses to Climate Change

EPA Science Inventory

The science of climate change integrates many scientific fields to explain and predict the complex effects of greenhouse gas concentrations on the planet’s energy balance, weather patterns, and ecosystems as well as economic and social systems. A changing climate requires respons...

Climate change : expert opinion on the economics of policy options to address climate change

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2008-05-01

Panelists identified key strengths and limitations of alternative policy approaches that should be of assistance to the Congress in weighing the potential benefits and costs of different policies for addressing climate change. Many panelists said tha...

Climate change policy : preliminary observations on options for distributing emissions allowances and revenue under a cap-and-trade program

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-08-01

According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Changea United Nations organization that assesses scientific, technical, and economic information on the effects of climate changeglobal atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases have inc...

Homogenization of vegetation structure across residential neighborhoods: effects of climate, urban morphology, and socio-economics

EPA Science Inventory

Climate is a key driver regulating vegetation structure across rural ecosystems. In urban ecosystems, multiple interactions between humans and the environment can have homogenizing influences, confounding the relationship between vegetation structure and climate. In fact, vegetat...

A data envelope analysis to assess factors affecting technical and economic efficiency of individual broiler breeder hens.

PubMed

Romero, L F; Zuidhof, M J; Jeffrey, S R; Naeima, A; Renema, R A; Robinson, F E

2010-08-01

This study evaluated the effect of feed allocation and energetic efficiency on technical and economic efficiency of broiler breeder hens using the data envelope analysis methodology and quantified the effect of variables affecting technical efficiency. A total of 288 Ross 708 pullets were placed in individual cages at 16 wk of age and assigned to 1 of 4 feed allocation groups. Three of them had feed allocated on a group basis with divergent BW targets: standard, high (standard x 1.1), and low (standard x 0.9). The fourth group had feed allocated on an individual bird basis following the standard BW target. Birds were classified in 3 energetic efficiency categories: low, average, and high, based on estimated maintenance requirements. Technical efficiency considered saleable chicks as output and cumulative ME intake and time as inputs. Economic efficiency of feed allocation treatments was analyzed under different cost scenarios. Birds with low feed allocation exhibited a lower technical efficiency (69.4%) than standard (72.1%), which reflected a reduced egg production rate. Feed allocation of the high treatment could have been reduced by 10% with the same chick production as the standard treatment. The low treatment exhibited reduced economic efficiency at greater capital costs, whereas high had reduced economic efficiency at greater feed costs. The average energetic efficiency hens had a lower technical efficiency in the low compared with the standard feed allocation. A 1% increment in estimated maintenance requirement changed technical efficiency by -0.23%, whereas a 1% increment in ME intake had a -0.47% effect. The negative relationship between technical efficiency and ME intake was counterbalanced by a positive correlation of ME intake and egg production. The negative relationship of technical efficiency and maintenance requirements was synergized by a negative correlation of hen maintenance and egg production. Economic efficiency methodologies are effective tools to assess the economic effect of selection and flock management programs because biological, allocative, and economic factors can be independently analyzed.

Climate change and viticulture in Mediterranean climates: the complex response of socio-ecosystems. A comparative case study from France and Australia (1955-2040)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lereboullet, A.-L.; Beltrando, G.; Bardsley, D. K.

2012-04-01

The wine industry is very sensitive to extreme weather events, especially to temperatures above 35°C and drought. In a context of global climate change, Mediterranean climate regions are predicted to experience higher variability in rainfall and temperatures and an increased occurrence of extreme weather events. Some viticultural systems could be particularly at risk in those regions, considering their marginal position in the growth climatic range of Vitis vinifera, the long commercial lifespan of a vineyard, the high added-value of wine and the volatile nature of global markets. The wine industry, like other agricultural systems, is inserted in complex networks of climatic and non-climatic (other physical, economical, social and legislative) components, with constant feedbacks. We use a socio-ecosystem approach to analyse the adaptation of two Mediterranean viticultural systems to recent and future increase of extreme weather events. The present analysis focuses on two wine regions with a hot-summer Mediterranean climate (CSb type in the Köppen classification): Côtes-du-Roussillon in southern France and McLaren Vale in southern Australia. Using climate data from two synoptic weather stations, Perpignan (France) and Adelaide (Australia), with time series running from 1955 to 2010, we highlight changes in rainfall patterns and an increase in the number of days with Tx >35°c since the last three decades in both regions. Climate models (DRIAS project data for France and CSIRO Mk3.5 for Australia) project similar trends in the future. To date, very few projects have focused on an international comparison of the adaptive capacity of viticultural systems to climate change with a holistic approach. Here, the analysis of climate data was complemented by twenty in-depth semi-structured interviews with key actors of the two regional wine industries, in order to analyse adaptation strategies put in place regarding recent climate evolution. This mixed-methods approach allows for a comprehensive assessment of adaptation capacity of the two viticultural systems to future climate change. The strategies of grape growers and wine producers focus on maintaining optimal yields and a constant wine style adapted to markets in a variable and uncertain climate. Their implementation and efficiency depend strongly on non-climatic factors. Thus, adaptation capacity to recent and future climate change depends strongly on adaptation to other non-climatic changes.

Using learning curves on energy-efficient technologies to estimate future energy savings and emission reduction potentials in the U.S. iron and steel industry

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Karali, Nihan; Park, Won Young; McNeil, Michael A.

Increasing concerns on non-sustainable energy use and climate change spur a growing research interest in energy efficiency potentials in various critical areas such as industrial production. This paper focuses on learning curve aspects of energy efficiency measures in the U.S iron and steel sector. A number of early-stage efficient technologies (i.e., emerging or demonstration technologies) are technically feasible and have the potential to make a significant contribution to energy saving and CO 2 emissions reduction, but fall short economically to be included. However, they may also have the cost effective potential for significant cost reduction and/or performance improvement in themore » future under learning effects such as ‘learning-by-doing’. The investigation is carried out using ISEEM, a technology oriented, linear optimization model. We investigated how steel demand is balanced with/without the availability learning curve, compared to a Reference scenario. The retrofit (or investment in some cases) costs of energy efficient technologies decline in the scenario where learning curve is applied. The analysis also addresses market penetration of energy efficient technologies, energy saving, and CO 2 emissions in the U.S. iron and steel sector with/without learning impact. Accordingly, the study helps those who use energy models better manage the price barriers preventing unrealistic diffusion of energy-efficiency technologies, better understand the market and learning system involved, predict future achievable learning rates more accurately, and project future savings via energy-efficiency technologies with presence of learning. We conclude from our analysis that, most of the existing energy efficiency technologies that are currently used in the U.S. iron and steel sector are cost effective. Penetration levels increases through the years, even though there is no price reduction. However, demonstration technologies are not economically feasible in the U.S. iron and steel sector with the current cost structure. In contrast, some of the demonstration technologies are adapted in the mid-term and their penetration levels increase as the prices go down with learning curve. We also observe large penetration of 225kg pulverized coal injection with the presence of learning.« less

The geographic distribution and economic value of climate change-related ozone health impacts in the United States in 2030.

PubMed

Fann, Neal; Nolte, Christopher G; Dolwick, Patrick; Spero, Tanya L; Brown, Amanda Curry; Phillips, Sharon; Anenberg, Susan

2015-05-01

In this United States-focused analysis we use outputs from two general circulation models (GCMs) driven by different greenhouse gas forcing scenarios as inputs to regional climate and chemical transport models to investigate potential changes in near-term U.S. air quality due to climate change. We conduct multiyear simulations to account for interannual variability and characterize the near-term influence of a changing climate on tropospheric ozone-related health impacts near the year 2030, which is a policy-relevant time frame that is subject to fewer uncertainties than other approaches employed in the literature. We adopt a 2030 emissions inventory that accounts for fully implementing anthropogenic emissions controls required by federal, state, and/or local policies, which is projected to strongly influence future ozone levels. We quantify a comprehensive suite of ozone-related mortality and morbidity impacts including emergency department visits, hospital admissions, acute respiratory symptoms, and lost school days, and estimate the economic value of these impacts. Both GCMs project average daily maximum temperature to increase by 1-4°C and 1-5 ppb increases in daily 8-hr maximum ozone at 2030, though each climate scenario produces ozone levels that vary greatly over space and time. We estimate tens to thousands of additional ozone-related premature deaths and illnesses per year for these two scenarios and calculate an economic burden of these health outcomes of hundreds of millions to tens of billions of U.S. dollars (2010$). Near-term changes to the climate have the potential to greatly affect ground-level ozone. Using a 2030 emission inventory with regional climate fields downscaled from two general circulation models, we project mean temperature increases of 1 to 4°C and climate-driven mean daily 8-hr maximum ozone increases of 1-5 ppb, though each climate scenario produces ozone levels that vary significantly over space and time. These increased ozone levels are estimated to result in tens to thousands of ozone-related premature deaths and illnesses per year and an economic burden of hundreds of millions to tens of billions of U.S. dollars (2010$).

Integrating a Detailed Agricultural Model in a Global Economic Framework: New methods for assessment of climate mitigation and adaptation opportunities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomson, A. M.; Izaurralde, R. C.; Calvin, K.; Zhang, X.; Wise, M.; West, T. O.

2010-12-01

Climate change and food security are global issues increasingly linked through human decision making that takes place across all scales from on-farm management actions to international climate negotiations. Understanding how agricultural systems can respond to climate change, through mitigation or adaptation, while still supplying sufficient food to feed a growing global population, thus requires a multi-sector tool in a global economic framework. Integrated assessment models are one such tool, however they are typically driven by historical aggregate statistics of production in combination with exogenous assumptions of future trends in agricultural productivity; they are not yet capable of exploring agricultural management practices as climate adaptation or mitigation strategies. Yet there are agricultural models capable of detailed biophysical modeling of farm management and climate impacts on crop yield, soil erosion and C and greenhouse gas emissions, although these are typically applied at point scales that are incompatible with coarse resolution integrated assessment modeling. To combine the relative strengths of these modeling systems, we are using the agricultural model EPIC (Environmental Policy Integrated Climate), applied in a geographic data framework for regional analyses, to provide input to the global economic model GCAM (Global Change Assessment Model). The initial phase of our approach focuses on a pilot region of the Midwest United States, a highly productive agricultural area. We apply EPIC, a point based biophysical process model, at 60 m spatial resolution within this domain and aggregate the results to GCAM agriculture and land use subregions for the United States. GCAM is then initialized with multiple management options for key food and bioenergy crops. Using EPIC to distinguish these management options based on grain yield, residue yield, soil C change and cost differences, GCAM then simulates the optimum distribution of the available management options to meet demands for food and energy over the next century. The coupled models provide a new platform for evaluating future changes in agricultural management based on food demand, bioenergy demand, and changes in crop yield and soil C under a changing climate. This framework can be applied to evaluate the economically and biophysically optimal distribution of management under future climates.

Economic Value of Narrowing the Uncertainty in Climate Sensitivity: Decadal Change in Shortwave Cloud Radiative Forcing and Low Cloud Feedback

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wielicki, B. A.; Cooke, R. M.; Golub, A. A.; Mlynczak, M. G.; Young, D. F.; Baize, R. R.

2016-12-01

Several previous studies have been published on the economic value of narrowing the uncertainty in climate sensitivity (Cooke et al. 2015, Cooke et al. 2016, Hope, 2015). All three of these studies estimated roughly 10 Trillion U.S. dollars for the Net Present Value and Real Option Value at a discount rate of 3%. This discount rate is the nominal discount rate used in the U.S. Social Cost of Carbon Memo (2010). The Cooke et al studies approached this problem by examining advances in accuracy of global temperature measurements, while the Hope 2015 study did not address the type of observations required. While temperature change is related to climate sensitivity, large uncertainties of a factor of 3 in current anthropogenic radiative forcing (IPCC, 2013) would need to be solved for advanced decadal temperature change observations to assist the challenge of narrowing climate sensitivity. The present study takes a new approach by extending the Cooke et al. 2015,2016 papers to replace observations of temperature change to observations of decadal change in the effects of changing clouds on the Earths radiative energy balance, a measurement known as Cloud Radiative Forcing, or Cloud Radiative Effect. Decadal change in this observation is direclty related to the largest uncertainty in climate sensitivity which is cloud feedback from changing amount of low clouds, primarily low clouds over the world's oceans. As a result, decadal changes in shortwave cloud radiative forcing are more directly related to cloud feedback uncertainty which is the dominant uncertainty in climate sensitivity. This paper will show results for the new approach, and allow an examination of the sensitivity of economic value results to different observations used as a constraint on uncertainty in climate sensitivity. The analysis suggests roughly a doubling of economic value to 20 Trillion Net Present Value or Real Option Value at 3% discount rate. The higher economic value results from two changes: a larger increase in accuracy for SW cloud radiative forcing vs temperature, and from a lower confounding noise from natural variability in the cloud radiative forcing variable compared to temperature. In particular, global average temperature is much more sensitive to the climate noise of ENSO cycles.

Dynamic modeling of the Ganga river system: impacts of future climate and socio-economic change on flows and nitrogen fluxes in India and Bangladesh.

PubMed

Whitehead, P G; Sarkar, S; Jin, L; Futter, M N; Caesar, J; Barbour, E; Butterfield, D; Sinha, R; Nicholls, R; Hutton, C; Leckie, H D

2015-06-01

This study investigates the potential impacts of future climate and socio-economic change on the flow and nitrogen fluxes of the Ganga river system. This is the first basin scale water quality study for the Ganga considering climate change at 25 km resolution together with socio-economic scenarios. The revised dynamic, process-based INCA model was used to simulate hydrology and water quality within the complex multi-branched river basins. All climate realizations utilized in the study predict increases in temperature and rainfall by the 2050s with significant increase by the 2090s. These changes generate associated increases in monsoon flows and increased availability of water for groundwater recharge and irrigation, but also more frequent flooding. Decreased concentrations of nitrate and ammonia are expected due to increased dilution. Different future socio-economic scenarios were found to have a significant impact on water quality at the downstream end of the Ganga. A less sustainable future resulted in a deterioration of water quality due to the pressures from higher population growth, land use change, increased sewage treatment discharges, enhanced atmospheric nitrogen deposition, and water abstraction. However, water quality was found to improve under a more sustainable strategy as envisaged in the Ganga clean-up plan.

Assessing uncertainties in global cropland futures using a conditional probabilistic modelling framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Engström, Kerstin; Olin, Stefan; Rounsevell, Mark D. A.; Brogaard, Sara; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Alexander, Peter; Murray-Rust, Dave; Arneth, Almut

2016-11-01

We present a modelling framework to simulate probabilistic futures of global cropland areas that are conditional on the SSP (shared socio-economic pathway) scenarios. Simulations are based on the Parsimonious Land Use Model (PLUM) linked with the global dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS (Lund-Potsdam-Jena General Ecosystem Simulator) using socio-economic data from the SSPs and climate data from the RCPs (representative concentration pathways). The simulated range of global cropland is 893-2380 Mha in 2100 (± 1 standard deviation), with the main uncertainties arising from differences in the socio-economic conditions prescribed by the SSP scenarios and the assumptions that underpin the translation of qualitative SSP storylines into quantitative model input parameters. Uncertainties in the assumptions for population growth, technological change and cropland degradation were found to be the most important for global cropland, while uncertainty in food consumption had less influence on the results. The uncertainties arising from climate variability and the differences between climate change scenarios do not strongly affect the range of global cropland futures. Some overlap occurred across all of the conditional probabilistic futures, except for those based on SSP3. We conclude that completely different socio-economic and climate change futures, although sharing low to medium population development, can result in very similar cropland areas on the aggregated global scale.

Climate Forecasts and Water Resource Management: Applications for a Developing Country

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown, C.; Rogers, P.

2002-05-01

While the quantity of water on the planet earth is relatively constant, the demand for water is continuously increasing. Population growth leads to linear increases in water demand, and economic growth leads to further demand growth. Strzepek et al. calculate that with a United Nations mean population estimate of 8.5 billion people by 2025 and globally balanced economic growth, water use could increase by 70% over that time (Strzepek et al., 1995). For developing nations especially, supplying water for this growing demand requires the construction of new water supply infrastructure. The prospect of designing and constructing long life-span infrastructure is clouded by the uncertainty of future climate. The availability of future water resources is highly dependent on future climate. With realization of the nonstationarity of climate, responsible design emphasizes resiliency and robustness of water resource systems (IPCC, 1995; Gleick et al., 1999). Resilient systems feature multiple sources and complex transport and distribution systems, and so come at a high economic and environmental price. A less capital-intense alternative to creating resilient and robust water resource systems is the use of seasonal climate forecasts. Such forecasts provide adequate lead time and accuracy to allow water managers and water-based sectors such as agriculture or hydropower to optimize decisions for the expected water supply. This study will assess the use of seasonal climate forecasts from regional climate models as a method to improve water resource management in systems with limited water supply infrastructure

Integrating Climate Science, Marine Ecology, and Fisheries Economics to Predict the Effects of Climate Change on New England lobster Fisheries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Le Bris, A.; Pershing, A. J.; Holland, D. S.; Mills, K.; Sun, C. H. J.

2016-02-01

The Gulf of Maine and the northwest Atlantic shelf have experienced one of the fastest warming rates of the global ocean over the past decade, and concerns are growing about the long-term sustainability of the fishing industries in the region. The lucrative American lobster fishery occurs over a steep temperature gradient, providing a unique opportunity to evaluate the consequences of climate change and variability on marine socio-ecological systems. This study aims at developing an integrated climate, population dynamics, and fishery economics model to predict consequences of climate change on the American lobster fishery. In this talk, we first describe a mechanistic model that combines life-history theory and a size-spectrum approach to simulate the dynamics of the population. Results show that as temperature increases, early growth rate and predation on small individuals increases, while size-at-maturity, maximum length and predation on large individuals decreases, resulting in a lower recruitment in the southern New-England and higher recruitment in the northern Gulf of Maine. Second, we present an integrated fishery and economic module that links temperature to landings and price through its influence on catchability and abundance. Preliminary results show that temperature is positively correlated with landings and negatively correlated with price in the Gulf of Maine. Finally, we discuss how model simulations under various fishing effort, market and climate scenarios can be used to identify adaptation opportunities to improve the resilience of the fishery to climate change.

Energy Efficient Building Management | Climate Neutral Research Campuses |

Science.gov Websites

NREL Efficient Building Management Energy Efficient Building Management As campuses complete generate the greatest climate impact. Energy efficient management in the existing stock of buildings is the following links go to sections that describe how an energy buildings management and maintenance program may

Long-Term Analysis and Appropriate Metrics of Climate Change in Mongolia

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jamiyansharav, Khishigbayar

2010-01-01

This study addresses three important issues related to long-term climate change study in Mongolia. Mongolia is one of the biggest land-locked countries in Asia and 75--80 percent of the land is rangeland, which is highly vulnerable to climate change. Climate will affect many sectors critical to the country's economic, social, and ecological…

The Geographic Distribution and Economic Value of Climate Change-Related Ozone Health Impacts in the United States in 2030

EPA Science Inventory

In this U.S.-focused analysis we use outputs from two global climate models (GCMs) driven by different greenhouse gas forcing scenarios as inputs to regional climate and chemical transport models to investigate potential changes in near-term U.S. air quality due to climate change...

Overview of the Special Issue: A Multi-Model Framework to Achieve Consistent Evaluation of Climate Change Impacts in the United States

EPA Science Inventory

The Climate Change Impacts and Risk Analysis (CIRA) project establishes a new multi-model framework to systematically assess the impacts, economic damages, and risks from climate change in the United States. The primary goal of this framework to estimate how climate change impac...

75 FR 54627 - ICLUS v1.3 User's Manual: ArcGIS Tools and Datasets for Modeling U.S. Housing Density Growth

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-09-08

... Climate and Land Use Scenarios, a project which is described in the 2009 EPA Report, ``Land-Use Scenarios: National-Scale Housing- Density Scenarios Consistent with Climate Change Storylines.'' These scenarios are... economic development, which are used by climate change modelers to develop projections of future climate...

The weather roulette: assessing the economic value of seasonal wind speed predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Christel, Isadora; Cortesi, Nicola; Torralba-Fernandez, Veronica; Soret, Albert; Gonzalez-Reviriego, Nube; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco

2016-04-01

Climate prediction is an emerging and highly innovative research area. For the wind energy sector, predicting the future variability of wind resources over the coming weeks or seasons is especially relevant to quantify operation and maintenance logistic costs or to inform energy trading decision with potential cost savings and/or economic benefits. Recent advances in climate predictions have already shown that probabilistic forecasting can improve the current prediction practices, which are based in the use of retrospective climatology and the assumption that what happened in the past is the best estimation of future conditions. Energy decision makers now have this new set of climate services but, are they willing to use them? Our aim is to properly explain the potential economic benefits of adopting probabilistic predictions, compared with the current practice, by using the weather roulette methodology (Hagedorn & Smith, 2009). This methodology is a diagnostic tool created to inform in a more intuitive and relevant way about the skill and usefulness of a forecast in the decision making process, by providing an economic and financial oriented assessment of the benefits of using a particular forecast system. We have selected a region relevant to the energy stakeholders where the predictions of the EUPORIAS climate service prototype for the energy sector (RESILIENCE) are skillful. In this region, we have applied the weather roulette to compare the overall prediction success of RESILIENCE's predictions and climatology illustrating it as an effective interest rate, an economic term that is easier to understand for energy stakeholders.

Source-Based Modeling Of Urban Stormwater Quality Response to the Selected Scenarios Combining Future Changes in Climate and Socio-Economic Factors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borris, Matthias; Leonhardt, Günther; Marsalek, Jiri; Österlund, Heléne; Viklander, Maria

2016-08-01

The assessment of future trends in urban stormwater quality should be most helpful for ensuring the effectiveness of the existing stormwater quality infrastructure in the future and mitigating the associated impacts on receiving waters. Combined effects of expected changes in climate and socio-economic factors on stormwater quality were examined in two urban test catchments by applying a source-based computer model (WinSLAMM) for TSS and three heavy metals (copper, lead, and zinc) for various future scenarios. Generally, both catchments showed similar responses to the future scenarios and pollutant loads were generally more sensitive to changes in socio-economic factors (i.e., increasing traffic intensities, growth and intensification of the individual land-uses) than in the climate. Specifically, for the selected Intermediate socio-economic scenario and two climate change scenarios (RSP = 2.6 and 8.5), the TSS loads from both catchments increased by about 10 % on average, but when applying the Intermediate climate change scenario (RCP = 4.5) for two SSPs, the Sustainability and Security scenarios (SSP1 and SSP3), the TSS loads increased on average by 70 %. Furthermore, it was observed that well-designed and maintained stormwater treatment facilities targeting local pollution hotspots exhibited the potential to significantly improve stormwater quality, however, at potentially high costs. In fact, it was possible to reduce pollutant loads from both catchments under the future Sustainability scenario (on average, e.g., TSS were reduced by 20 %), compared to the current conditions. The methodology developed in this study was found useful for planning climate change adaptation strategies in the context of local conditions.

Mulit Criteria - Application on Climate Change Adaptation and Biofuel Cultivation on Contaminated Land

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andersson-Sköld, Yvonne; Suer, Pascal; Bergman, Ramona; Helgesson, Helena

2010-05-01

A decision support tool/method has been developed to systematically include sustainability at an early stage in planning issues. Sustainability was subdivided into human health, environmental impacts, resources, and social and economic impacts. Health, environmental and resources impacts were based on the Swedish environmental objectives, life cycle assessment (LCA) impact categories, and contaminated soil guidelines. The resulting impact indicators were climate change - global warming potential, large scale and local air quality, water and soil quality, landscape, energy, materials, wellbeing/welfare, direct financial costs, social economic aspects, and flexi-bility. The method offers an iterative discussion framework that is systematic, condensed and yet a simplistic way of describing consequences of climate change and related adaptation measures including economic, social and environmental aspects. Application of the tool to biofuel cultivation on contaminated soil indicated that traditional soil remediation may have higher social and economical benefits but be less suitable from a health, environment, and resources perspective. The tool has further been applied in municipalities on climate change impacts and adaptation measures. Re-sults from the application in tree municipalities will be presented: Gothenburg City, Lidköping and Arvika. In Gothenburg and Lidköping the major impact of climate change is increase in sea water level (North Sea and Lake Vänern respectively) combined with extreme weather conditions. According to regional climate change scenarios Arvika is located in one of the worst affected areas in Sweden with respect to increase of intensive rainfall and extreme flows. The adaptation measures investigated at the three locations include doing nothing, different constructions and planning. The results are based on previous risk identification investigations, flood and land slide maps and interviews with civil servants in the three municipalities.

Combined impacts of climate and socio-economic scenarios on irrigation water availability for a dry Mediterranean reservoir.

PubMed

Nunes, João Pedro; Jacinto, Rita; Keizer, Jan Jacob

2017-04-15

The impacts of climate and associated socio-economic changes on water availability, including supply and demand, quality, and storage volume, were evaluated for the Vale do Gaio reservoir in southern Portugal, located in a dry Mediterranean climate and already under drought stress. The SWAT model was applied with 6 scenarios for 2071-2100, involving two storylines (A1B and B1) with individual changes in climate (-9% rainfall, increasing in winter by +28 to +30%), socio-economic conditions (an increase in irrigation demand by 11%, and a replacement of cereals and pastures by sunflower), and a combination of both. Most future scenarios resulted in lower water availability, due to lower supply (-19 to -27%) combined with higher irrigation demand (+3 to +21%). This resulted in more years with limited irrigation supplies (presently: 28%; scenarios: 37 to 43%), although limitations were mitigated by lower losses to excess discharge. Land-use changes also decreased quality by increasing P concentrations (+29 to +93%). Impacts were more severe in scenario A1B than in B1, and in combined changes than in climate or socio-economic changes only. Water availability was resilient to climate change, as impacts led only to a moderate aggravation of present-day conditions. Lower future water availability could be addressed by supply and demand management strategies and, in the most extreme scenario, by water transfers from regional water reserves; water quality issues could be addressed through land-use policies. Results also highlighted the importance of taking the characteristics of water supply systems into account when designing adaptation measures for future changes. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Modeling perceptions of climatic risk in crop production.

PubMed

Reinmuth, Evelyn; Parker, Phillip; Aurbacher, Joachim; Högy, Petra; Dabbert, Stephan

2017-01-01

In agricultural production, land-use decisions are components of economic planning that result in the strategic allocation of fields. Climate variability represents an uncertainty factor in crop production. Considering yield impact, climatic influence is perceived during and evaluated at the end of crop production cycles. In practice, this information is then incorporated into planning for the upcoming season. This process contributes to attitudes toward climate-induced risk in crop production. In the literature, however, the subjective valuation of risk is modeled as a risk attitude toward variations in (monetary) outcomes. Consequently, climatic influence may be obscured by political and market influences so that risk perceptions during the production process are neglected. We present a utility concept that allows the inclusion of annual risk scores based on mid-season risk perceptions that are incorporated into field-planning decisions. This approach is exemplified and implemented for winter wheat production in the Kraichgau, a region in Southwest Germany, using the integrated bio-economic simulation model FarmActor and empirical data from the region. Survey results indicate that a profitability threshold for this crop, the level of "still-good yield" (sgy), is 69 dt ha-1 (regional mean Kraichgau sample) for a given season. This threshold governs the monitoring process and risk estimators. We tested the modeled estimators against simulation results using ten projected future weather time series for winter wheat production. The mid-season estimators generally proved to be effective. This approach can be used to improve the modeling of planning decisions by providing a more comprehensive evaluation of field-crop response to climatic changes from an economic risk point of view. The methodology further provides economic insight in an agrometeorological context where prices for crops or inputs are lacking, but farmer attitudes toward risk should still be included in the analysis.

Source-Based Modeling Of Urban Stormwater Quality Response to the Selected Scenarios Combining Future Changes in Climate and Socio-Economic Factors.

PubMed

Borris, Matthias; Leonhardt, Günther; Marsalek, Jiri; Österlund, Heléne; Viklander, Maria

2016-08-01

The assessment of future trends in urban stormwater quality should be most helpful for ensuring the effectiveness of the existing stormwater quality infrastructure in the future and mitigating the associated impacts on receiving waters. Combined effects of expected changes in climate and socio-economic factors on stormwater quality were examined in two urban test catchments by applying a source-based computer model (WinSLAMM) for TSS and three heavy metals (copper, lead, and zinc) for various future scenarios. Generally, both catchments showed similar responses to the future scenarios and pollutant loads were generally more sensitive to changes in socio-economic factors (i.e., increasing traffic intensities, growth and intensification of the individual land-uses) than in the climate. Specifically, for the selected Intermediate socio-economic scenario and two climate change scenarios (RSP = 2.6 and 8.5), the TSS loads from both catchments increased by about 10 % on average, but when applying the Intermediate climate change scenario (RCP = 4.5) for two SSPs, the Sustainability and Security scenarios (SSP1 and SSP3), the TSS loads increased on average by 70 %. Furthermore, it was observed that well-designed and maintained stormwater treatment facilities targeting local pollution hotspots exhibited the potential to significantly improve stormwater quality, however, at potentially high costs. In fact, it was possible to reduce pollutant loads from both catchments under the future Sustainability scenario (on average, e.g., TSS were reduced by 20 %), compared to the current conditions. The methodology developed in this study was found useful for planning climate change adaptation strategies in the context of local conditions.

Modeling perceptions of climatic risk in crop production

PubMed Central

Parker, Phillip; Aurbacher, Joachim; Högy, Petra; Dabbert, Stephan

2017-01-01

In agricultural production, land-use decisions are components of economic planning that result in the strategic allocation of fields. Climate variability represents an uncertainty factor in crop production. Considering yield impact, climatic influence is perceived during and evaluated at the end of crop production cycles. In practice, this information is then incorporated into planning for the upcoming season. This process contributes to attitudes toward climate-induced risk in crop production. In the literature, however, the subjective valuation of risk is modeled as a risk attitude toward variations in (monetary) outcomes. Consequently, climatic influence may be obscured by political and market influences so that risk perceptions during the production process are neglected. We present a utility concept that allows the inclusion of annual risk scores based on mid-season risk perceptions that are incorporated into field-planning decisions. This approach is exemplified and implemented for winter wheat production in the Kraichgau, a region in Southwest Germany, using the integrated bio-economic simulation model FarmActor and empirical data from the region. Survey results indicate that a profitability threshold for this crop, the level of “still-good yield” (sgy), is 69 dt ha-1 (regional mean Kraichgau sample) for a given season. This threshold governs the monitoring process and risk estimators. We tested the modeled estimators against simulation results using ten projected future weather time series for winter wheat production. The mid-season estimators generally proved to be effective. This approach can be used to improve the modeling of planning decisions by providing a more comprehensive evaluation of field-crop response to climatic changes from an economic risk point of view. The methodology further provides economic insight in an agrometeorological context where prices for crops or inputs are lacking, but farmer attitudes toward risk should still be included in the analysis. PMID:28763471

Harnessing the hybrid power supply systems of utility grid and photovoltaic panels at retrofit residential single family building in Medan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pangaribuan, A. B.; Rahmat, R. F.; Lidya, M. S.; Zálešák, M.

2017-01-01

The paper describes improvisation mode of energy supply source by collaboration between national utility grid as represented by fossil fuels and PV as independent renewable power resource in order to aim the energy consumptions efficiently in retrofit single family house. In this case, one existing single family house model in Medan, Indonesia was observed for the possibility of future refurbishment. The eco-design version of the house model and prediction analyses regarding nearby potential renewable energy resource (solar system) had been made using Autodesk Revit MEP 2015, Climate Consultant 6.0 and Green Building Studio Analysis. Economical evaluation of using hybrid power supply is discussed as well.

[The distribution of health resources: a hybrid model of equality and maximization].

PubMed

Farmer, Yanick

2012-01-01

In the allocation of resources for health care, it is generally acknowledged that models based exclusively either on efficiency and maximizing the cost/benefit ratio of interventions, or on equity and justice through the notion of "maximin," are unsatisfactory when taken separately. To fill this gap, this commentary suggests a hybrid model of resource allocation that integrates the idea of a random distribution of resources using a lottery. The general aim of this model is to safeguard the notions of justice and equal access to resources to the maximum extent possible in a climate where budget restrictions and the economic downturn may lead to future reductions in services.

Algae biofuels: versatility for the future of bioenergy.

PubMed

Jones, Carla S; Mayfield, Stephen P

2012-06-01

The world continues to increase its energy use, brought about by an expanding population and a desire for a greater standard of living. This energy use coupled with the realization of the impact of carbon dioxide on the climate, has led us to reanalyze the potential of plant-based biofuels. Of the potential sources of biofuels the most efficient producers of biomass are the photosynthetic microalgae and cyanobacteria. These versatile organisms can be used for the production of bioethanol, biodiesel, biohydrogen, and biogas. In fact, one of the most economic methods for algal biofuels production may be the combined biorefinery approach where multiple biofuels are produced from one biomass source. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

ONU Power Saving Scheme for EPON System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mukai, Hiroaki; Tano, Fumihiko; Tanaka, Masaki; Kozaki, Seiji; Yamanaka, Hideaki

PON (Passive Optical Network) achieves FTTH (Fiber To The Home) economically, by sharing an optical fiber among plural subscribers. Recently, global climate change has been recognized as a serious near term problem. Power saving techniques for electronic devices are important. In PON system, the ONU (Optical Network Unit) power saving scheme has been studied and defined in XG-PON. In this paper, we propose an ONU power saving scheme for EPON. Then, we present an analysis of the power reduction effect and the data transmission delay caused by the ONU power saving scheme. According to the analysis, we propose an efficient provisioning method for the ONU power saving scheme which is applicable to both of XG-PON and EPON.

API focuses on cleanliness, economics of fossil fuels

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

1993-11-15

Fossil fuels, consumed in free markets, are playing positive economic and environmental roles as the world economy becomes integrated, industry leader said last week. Environmental zealots threaten to force conversion from gasoline as a motor fuel in the U.S. and oppose the growing integration of the world economy. Fossil fuels, free markets, human creativity, and entrepreneurial spirit--not government intervention--are the keys to a clean environment, said API pres. Charles J. DiBona and outgoing Chairman C.J. (Pete) Silas, chairman and chief executive officer of Phillips Petroleum Co. DiBona said proponents of the BTU tax defeated earlier this year used erroneous assumptionsmore » to make a case against oil use in an effort to replace the efficiency of the marketplace with the inefficiency of bureaucracy. The government's role is to set tough standards and avoid dictating the way environmental standards are met, they said. Other speakers warned that voluntary measures put forward by the Clinton administration of address global climate change issues likely will fall short.« less

Projected climate change impacts in rainfall erosivity over Brazil

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Climate change projections and historical analyses have shown alterations in global precipitation dynamics, and therefore, it is also expected that there will be associated changes to soil erosion rates. The impacts of climate change on soil erosion may bring serious economic, social, and environmen...

Patterns of crop cover under future climates.

PubMed

Porfirio, Luciana L; Newth, David; Harman, Ian N; Finnigan, John J; Cai, Yiyong

2017-04-01

We study changes in crop cover under future climate and socio-economic projections. This study is not only organised around the global and regional adaptation or vulnerability to climate change but also includes the influence of projected changes in socio-economic, technological and biophysical drivers, especially regional gross domestic product. The climatic data are obtained from simulations of RCP4.5 and 8.5 by four global circulation models/earth system models from 2000 to 2100. We use Random Forest, an empirical statistical model, to project the future crop cover. Our results show that, at the global scale, increases and decreases in crop cover cancel each other out. Crop cover in the Northern Hemisphere is projected to be impacted more by future climate than the in Southern Hemisphere because of the disparity in the warming rate and precipitation patterns between the two Hemispheres. We found that crop cover in temperate regions is projected to decrease more than in tropical regions. We identified regions of concern and opportunities for climate change adaptation and investment.

Development and Climate Change: A Mainstreaming Approach for Assessing Economic, Social, and Environmental Impacts of Adaptation Measures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Halsnæs, Kirsten; Trærup, Sara

2009-05-01

The paper introduces the so-called climate change mainstreaming approach, where vulnerability and adaptation measures are assessed in the context of general development policy objectives. The approach is based on the application of a limited set of indicators. These indicators are selected as representatives of focal development policy objectives, and a stepwise approach for addressing climate change impacts, development linkages, and the economic, social and environmental dimensions related to vulnerability and adaptation are introduced. Within this context it is illustrated using three case studies how development policy indicators in practice can be used to assess climate change impacts and adaptation measures based on three case studies, namely a road project in flood prone areas of Mozambique, rainwater harvesting in the agricultural sector in Tanzania and malaria protection in Tanzania. The conclusions of the paper confirm that climate risks can be reduced at relatively low costs, but the uncertainty is still remaining about some of the wider development impacts of implementing climate change adaptation measures.

Development and climate change: a mainstreaming approach for assessing economic, social, and environmental impacts of adaptation measures.

PubMed

Halsnaes, Kirsten; Traerup, Sara

2009-05-01

The paper introduces the so-called climate change mainstreaming approach, where vulnerability and adaptation measures are assessed in the context of general development policy objectives. The approach is based on the application of a limited set of indicators. These indicators are selected as representatives of focal development policy objectives, and a stepwise approach for addressing climate change impacts, development linkages, and the economic, social and environmental dimensions related to vulnerability and adaptation are introduced. Within this context it is illustrated using three case studies how development policy indicators in practice can be used to assess climate change impacts and adaptation measures based on three case studies, namely a road project in flood prone areas of Mozambique, rainwater harvesting in the agricultural sector in Tanzania and malaria protection in Tanzania. The conclusions of the paper confirm that climate risks can be reduced at relatively low costs, but the uncertainty is still remaining about some of the wider development impacts of implementing climate change adaptation measures.

Climate and southern Africa's water-energy-food nexus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Conway, Declan; van Garderen, Emma Archer; Deryng, Delphine; Dorling, Steve; Krueger, Tobias; Landman, Willem; Lankford, Bruce; Lebek, Karen; Osborn, Tim; Ringler, Claudia; Thurlow, James; Zhu, Tingju; Dalin, Carole

2015-09-01

In southern Africa, the connections between climate and the water-energy-food nexus are strong. Physical and socioeconomic exposure to climate is high in many areas and in crucial economic sectors. Spatial interdependence is also high, driven, for example, by the regional extent of many climate anomalies and river basins and aquifers that span national boundaries. There is now strong evidence of the effects of individual climate anomalies, but associations between national rainfall and gross domestic product and crop production remain relatively weak. The majority of climate models project decreases in annual precipitation for southern Africa, typically by as much as 20% by the 2080s. Impact models suggest these changes would propagate into reduced water availability and crop yields. Recognition of spatial and sectoral interdependencies should inform policies, institutions and investments for enhancing water, energy and food security. Three key political and economic instruments could be strengthened for this purpose: the Southern African Development Community, the Southern African Power Pool and trade of agricultural products amounting to significant transfers of embedded water.

Does climate undermine subjective well-being? A 58-nation study.

PubMed

Fischer, Ronald; Van de Vliert, Evert

2011-08-01

The authors test predictions from climato-economic theories of culture that climate and wealth interact in their influence on psychological processes. Demanding climates (defined as colder than temperate and hotter than temperate climates) create potential threats for humans. If these demands can be met by available economic resources, individuals experience challenging opportunities for self-expression and personal growth and consequently will report lowest levels of ill-being. If threatening climatic demands cannot be met by resources, resulting levels of reported ill-being will be highest. These predictions are confirmed in nation-level means of health complaints, burnout, anxiety, and depression across 58 societies. Climate, wealth, and their interaction together account for 35% of the variation in overall subjective ill-being, even when controlling for known predictors of subjective well-being. Further investigations of the process suggest that cultural individualism does not mediate these effects, but subjective well-being may function as a mediator of the impact of ecological variables on ill-being.

Spatially explicit integrated modeling and economic valuation of climate driven land use change and its indirect effects.

PubMed

Bateman, Ian; Agarwala, Matthew; Binner, Amy; Coombes, Emma; Day, Brett; Ferrini, Silvia; Fezzi, Carlo; Hutchins, Michael; Lovett, Andrew; Posen, Paulette

2016-10-01

We present an integrated model of the direct consequences of climate change on land use, and the indirect effects of induced land use change upon the natural environment. The model predicts climate-driven shifts in the profitability of alternative uses of agricultural land. Both the direct impact of climate change and the induced shift in land use patterns will cause secondary effects on the water environment, for which agriculture is the major source of diffuse pollution. We model the impact of changes in such pollution on riverine ecosystems showing that these will be spatially heterogeneous. Moreover, we consider further knock-on effects upon the recreational benefits derived from water environments, which we assess using revealed preference methods. This analysis permits a multi-layered examination of the economic consequences of climate change, assessing the sequence of impacts from climate change through farm gross margins, land use, water quality and recreation, both at the individual and catchment scale. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Applications of VIC for Climate Land Cover Change Imapacts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Markert, Kel

2017-01-01

Study focuses on the Lower Mekong Basin (LMB), the LMB is an economically and ecologically important region: (1) One of the largest exporters of rice and fish products, (2) Within top three most biodiverse river basins in the world. Natural climate variability plays an important role in water supply within the region: (1) Short-term climate variability (ENSO, MJO), (2) Long-term climate variability (climate change). Projections of climate change show there will be a decrease in water availability world wide which has implications for food security and ecology. Additional studies show there may be socioeconomic turmoil due to water wars and food security in developing regions such as the Mekong Basin. Southeast Asia has experienced major changes in land use and land cover from 1980 – 2000. Major economic reforms resulting in shift from subsistence farming to market-based agricultural production. Changes in land cover continue to occur which have an important role within the land surface aspect of hydrology.

Uncertainty quantification and validation of combined hydrological and macroeconomic analyses.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hernandez, Jacquelynne; Parks, Mancel Jordan; Jennings, Barbara Joan

2010-09-01

Changes in climate can lead to instabilities in physical and economic systems, particularly in regions with marginal resources. Global climate models indicate increasing global mean temperatures over the decades to come and uncertainty in the local to national impacts means perceived risks will drive planning decisions. Agent-based models provide one of the few ways to evaluate the potential changes in behavior in coupled social-physical systems and to quantify and compare risks. The current generation of climate impact analyses provides estimates of the economic cost of climate change for a limited set of climate scenarios that account for a small subsetmore » of the dynamics and uncertainties. To better understand the risk to national security, the next generation of risk assessment models must represent global stresses, population vulnerability to those stresses, and the uncertainty in population responses and outcomes that could have a significant impact on U.S. national security.« less

The economics of optimal urban groundwater management in southwestern USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hansen, Jason K.

2012-08-01

Groundwater serves as the primary water source for approximately 80% of public water systems in the United States, and for many more as a secondary source. Traditionally management relies on groundwater to meet rising demand by increasing supply, but climate uncertainty and population growth require more judicious management to achieve efficiency and sustainability. Over-pumping leads to groundwater overdraft and jeopardizes the ability of future users to depend on the resource. Optimal urban groundwater pumping can play a role in solving this conundrum. This paper investigates to what extent and under what circumstances controlled pumping improves social welfare. It considers management in a hydro-economic framework and finds the optimal pumping path and the optimal price path. These allow for the identification of the social benefit of controlled pumping, and the scarcity rent, which is one tool to sustainably manage groundwater resources. The model is numerically illustrated with a case study from Albuquerque, New Mexico (USA). The Albuquerque results indicate that, in the presence of strong demand growth, controlled pumping improves social welfare by 22%, extends use of the resource, and provides planners with a mechanism to advance the economic sustainability of groundwater.

Treatments to Optimize the Use of Artificial Insemination and Reproductive Efficiency in Beef Cattle under Tropical Environments

PubMed Central

de Sá Filho, Ocilon Gomes; Vasconcelos, José Luiz Moraes

2011-01-01

Bos indicus cattle, the preferred genetic group in tropical climates, are characterized by having a lower reproductive efficiency than Bos taurus. The reasons for the poorer reproductive efficiency of the Bos indicus cows include longer lengths of gestation and postpartum anestrus, a short length of estrous behavior with a high incidence of estrus occurring during the dark hours, and puberty at older age and at a higher percentage of body weight relative to mature body weight. Moreover, geography, environment, economics, and social traditions are factors contributing for a lower use of reproductive biotechnologies in tropical environments. Hormonal protocols have been developed to resolve some of the reproductive challenges of the Bos indicus cattle and allow artificial insemination, which is the main strategy to hasten genetic improvement in commercial beef ranches. Most of these treatments use exogenous sources of progesterone associated with strategies to improve the final maturation of the dominant follicle, such as temporary weaning and exogenous gonadotropins. These treatments have caused large impacts on reproductive performance of beef cattle reared under tropical areas. PMID:21076547

Biospheric feedback effects in a synchronously coupled model of human and Earth systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thornton, P. E.; Calvin, K. V.; Jones, A. D.; Di Vittorio, A. V.; Bond-Lamberty, B. P.; Chini, L. P.; Shi, X.; Mao, J.; Collins, W. D.; Edmonds, J.; Hurtt, G. C.

2017-12-01

Fossil fuel combustion and land-use change are the two largest contributors to industrial-era increases in atmospheric CO2 concentration. Projections of these are thus fundamental inputs for coupled Earth system models (ESMs) used to estimate the physical and biological consequences of future climate system forcing. While historical datasets are available to inform past and current climate analyses, assessments of future climate change have relied on projections of energy and land use from energy economic models, constrained by assumptions about future policy, land-use patterns, and socio-economic development trajectories. In this work we show that the climatic impacts on land ecosystems drives significant feedbacks in energy, agriculture, land-use, and carbon cycle projections for the 21st century. We find that exposure of human appropriated land ecosystem productivity to biospheric change results in reductions of land area used for crops; increases in managed forest area and carbon stocks; decreases in global crop prices; and reduction in fossil fuel emissions for a low-mid range forcing scenario. Land ecosystem response to increased carbon dioxide concentration, increased anthropogenic nitrogen deposition, and changes in temperature and precipitation all play a role. The feedbacks between climate-induced biospheric change and human system forcings to the climate system demonstrated in this work are handled inconsistently, or excluded altogether, in the one-way asynchronous coupling of energy economic models to ESMs used to date.

Attribution of climate forcing to economic sectors.

PubMed

Unger, Nadine; Bond, Tami C; Wang, James S; Koch, Dorothy M; Menon, Surabi; Shindell, Drew T; Bauer, Susanne

2010-02-23

A much-cited bar chart provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change displays the climate impact, as expressed by radiative forcing in watts per meter squared, of individual chemical species. The organization of the chart reflects the history of atmospheric chemistry, in which investigators typically focused on a single species of interest. However, changes in pollutant emissions and concentrations are a symptom, not a cause, of the primary driver of anthropogenic climate change: human activity. In this paper, we suggest organizing the bar chart according to drivers of change-that is, by economic sector. Climate impacts of tropospheric ozone, fine aerosols, aerosol-cloud interactions, methane, and long-lived greenhouse gases are considered. We quantify the future evolution of the total radiative forcing due to perpetual constant year 2000 emissions by sector, most relevant for the development of climate policy now, and focus on two specific time points, near-term at 2020 and long-term at 2100. Because sector profiles differ greatly, this approach fosters the development of smart climate policy and is useful to identify effective opportunities for rapid mitigation of anthropogenic radiative forcing.

Attribution of climate forcing to economic sectors

PubMed Central

Unger, Nadine; Bond, Tami C.; Wang, James S.; Koch, Dorothy M.; Menon, Surabi; Shindell, Drew T.; Bauer, Susanne

2010-01-01

A much-cited bar chart provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change displays the climate impact, as expressed by radiative forcing in watts per meter squared, of individual chemical species. The organization of the chart reflects the history of atmospheric chemistry, in which investigators typically focused on a single species of interest. However, changes in pollutant emissions and concentrations are a symptom, not a cause, of the primary driver of anthropogenic climate change: human activity. In this paper, we suggest organizing the bar chart according to drivers of change—that is, by economic sector. Climate impacts of tropospheric ozone, fine aerosols, aerosol-cloud interactions, methane, and long-lived greenhouse gases are considered. We quantify the future evolution of the total radiative forcing due to perpetual constant year 2000 emissions by sector, most relevant for the development of climate policy now, and focus on two specific time points, near-term at 2020 and long-term at 2100. Because sector profiles differ greatly, this approach fosters the development of smart climate policy and is useful to identify effective opportunities for rapid mitigation of anthropogenic radiative forcing. PMID:20133724

The economic impact of climate change on Kenyan crop agriculture: A Ricardian approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kabubo-Mariara, Jane; Karanja, Fredrick K.

2007-06-01

This paper measures the economic impact of climate on crops in Kenya. We use cross-sectional data on climate, hydrological, soil and household level data for a sample of 816 households. We estimate a seasonal Ricardian model to assess the impact of climate on net crop revenue per acre. The results show that climate affects crop productivity. There is a non-linear relationship between temperature and revenue on one hand and between precipitation and revenue on the other. Estimated marginal impacts suggest that global warming is harmful for crop productivity. Predictions from global circulation models confirm that global warming will have a substantial impact on net crop revenue in Kenya. The results also show that the temperature component of global warming is much more important than precipitation. Findings call for monitoring of climate change and dissemination of information to farmers to encourage adaptations to climate change. Improved management and conservation of available water resources, water harvesting and recycling of wastewater could generate water for irrigation purposes especially in the arid and semi-arid areas.

Co-benefits of addressing climate change can motivate action around the world

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bain, Paul G.; Milfont, Taciano L.; Kashima, Yoshihisa; Bilewicz, Michał; Doron, Guy; Garðarsdóttir, Ragna B.; Gouveia, Valdiney V.; Guan, Yanjun; Johansson, Lars-Olof; Pasquali, Carlota; Corral-Verdugo, Victor; Aragones, Juan Ignacio; Utsugi, Akira; Demarque, Christophe; Otto, Siegmar; Park, Joonha; Soland, Martin; Steg, Linda; González, Roberto; Lebedeva, Nadezhda; Madsen, Ole Jacob; Wagner, Claire; Akotia, Charity S.; Kurz, Tim; Saiz, José L.; Schultz, P. Wesley; Einarsdóttir, Gró; Saviolidis, Nina M.

2016-02-01

Personal and political action on climate change is traditionally thought to be motivated by people accepting its reality and importance. However, convincing the public that climate change is real faces powerful ideological obstacles, and climate change is slipping in public importance in many countries. Here we investigate a different approach, identifying whether potential co-benefits of addressing climate change could motivate pro-environmental behaviour around the world for both those convinced and unconvinced that climate change is real. We describe an integrated framework for assessing beliefs about co-benefits, distinguishing social conditions (for example, economic development, reduced pollution or disease) and community character (for example, benevolence, competence). Data from all inhabited continents (24 countries; 6,196 participants) showed that two co-benefit types, Development (economic and scientific advancement) and Benevolence (a more moral and caring community), motivated public, private and financial actions to address climate change to a similar degree as believing climate change is important. Critically, relationships were similar for both convinced and unconvinced participants, showing that co-benefits can motivate action across ideological divides. These relationships were also independent of perceived climate change importance, and could not be explained by political ideology, age, or gender. Communicating co-benefits could motivate action on climate change where traditional approaches have stalled.

An issue of trust: state corruption, responsibility and greenhouse gas emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frame, David J.; Hepburn, Cameron

2010-01-01

Climate change is increasingly seen to raise difficult normative issues. To date, cumulative emissions have been disproportionately from the developed world, while the consequences of climate change are anticipated to hit poorer countries hardest. For this reason, amongst others, it is suggested that more economically developed countries with high greenhouse gas emissions ought to transfer resources to less economically developed, lower emissions countries. Some proponents would justify these resource transfers by ethical or justice-based arguments, often based on some function of the emissions per capita of each country, such that rights of some sort are created and those nations which are emitting more (per capita) than some amount are to compensate those who are emitting less. In this letter we show that national emissions per capita, scaled by economic output, show a systematic negative correlation with state corruption. We discuss this result in the context of justice-based arguments for per capita climate mitigation transfers, and suggest that it would be beneficial for the climate mitigation community to consider state corruption as a relevant factor in the development of mitigation policy.

Efficient and sustainable deployment of bioenergy with carbon capture and storage in mitigation pathways

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kato, E.; Moriyama, R.; Kurosawa, A.

2016-12-01

Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) is a key component of mitigation strategies in future socio-economic scenarios that aim to keep mean global temperature rise well below 2°C above pre-industrial, which would require net negative carbon emissions at the end of the 21st century. Also, in the Paris agreement from COP21, it is denoted "a balance between anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks of greenhouse gases in the second half of this century" which could require large scale deployment of negative emissions technologies later in this century. Because of the additional requirement for land, developing sustainable low-carbon scenarios requires careful consideration of the land-use implications of large-scale BECCS. In this study, we present possible development strategies of low carbon scenarios that consider interaction of economically efficient deployment of bioenergy and/or BECCS technologies, biophysical limit of bioenergy productivity, and food production. In the evaluations, detailed bioenergy representations, including bioenergy feedstocks and conversion technologies with and without CCS, are implemented in an integrated assessment model GRAPE. Also, to overcome a general discrepancy about yield development between 'top-down' integrate assessment models and 'bottom-up' estimates, we applied yields changes of food and bioenergy crops consistent with process-based biophysical models; PRYSBI-2 (Process-Based Regional-Scale Yield Simulator with Bayesian Inference) for food crops, and SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) for bioenergy crops in changing climate conditions. Using the framework, economically viable strategy for implementing sustainable BECCS are evaluated.

About ICLUS

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

ICLUS is a project for developing scenarios broadly consistent with global-scale, peer-reviewed storylines of population growth and economic development, which are used by climate change modelers to develop projections of future climate.

The Economics of Inequality: The Value of Early Childhood Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Heckman, James J.

2011-01-01

Educational equity is often discussed as a moral issue. Another way to think about equity is as a way to promote productivity and economic efficiency. Traditionally, equity and efficiency are viewed as competing goals. One can be fair in devising a policy, but often what is fair is not economically efficient. Conversely, what is efficient may not…

Rethinking Economics and Education: Exponential Growth and Post-Growth Strategies

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Irwin, Ruth

2017-01-01

Education is increasingly vocational and structured to serve the ongoing exponential increase in economic growth. Climate change is an outcome of these same economic values and praxes. Attempts to shift these values and our approach to technology are continually absorbed and overcome by the pressing motif of economic growth. In this article, Ruth…

[Ethics versus economics in public health? On the integration of economic rationality in a discourse of public health ethics].

PubMed

Rothgang, H; Staber, J

2009-05-01

In the course of establishing the discourse of public health ethics in Germany, we discuss whether economic efficiency should be part of public health ethics and, if necessary, how efficiency should be conceptualized. Based on the welfare economics theory, we build a theoretical framework that demands an integration of economic rationality in public health ethics. Furthermore, we consider the possible implementation of welfare efficiency against the background of current practice in an economic evaluation of health care in Germany. The indifference of the welfare efficiency criterion with respect to distribution leads to the conclusion that efficiency must not be the only criteria of public health ethics. Therefore, an ethical approach of principles should be chosen for public health ethics. Possible conflicts between principles of such an approach are outlined.

Game Theoretic Modeling of Water Resources Allocation Under Hydro-Climatic Uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown, C.; Lall, U.; Siegfried, T.

2005-12-01

Typical hydrologic and economic modeling approaches rely on assumptions of climate stationarity and economic conditions of ideal markets and rational decision-makers. In this study, we incorporate hydroclimatic variability with a game theoretic approach to simulate and evaluate common water allocation paradigms. Game Theory may be particularly appropriate for modeling water allocation decisions. First, a game theoretic approach allows economic analysis in situations where price theory doesn't apply, which is typically the case in water resources where markets are thin, players are few, and rules of exchange are highly constrained by legal or cultural traditions. Previous studies confirm that game theory is applicable to water resources decision problems, yet applications and modeling based on these principles is only rarely observed in the literature. Second, there are numerous existing theoretical and empirical studies of specific games and human behavior that may be applied in the development of predictive water allocation models. With this framework, one can evaluate alternative orderings and rules regarding the fraction of available water that one is allowed to appropriate. Specific attributes of the players involved in water resources management complicate the determination of solutions to game theory models. While an analytical approach will be useful for providing general insights, the variety of preference structures of individual players in a realistic water scenario will likely require a simulation approach. We propose a simulation approach incorporating the rationality, self-interest and equilibrium concepts of game theory with an agent-based modeling framework that allows the distinct properties of each player to be expressed and allows the performance of the system to manifest the integrative effect of these factors. Underlying this framework, we apply a realistic representation of spatio-temporal hydrologic variability and incorporate the impact of decision-making a priori to hydrologic realizations and those made a posteriori on alternative allocation mechanisms. Outcomes are evaluated in terms of water productivity, net social benefit and equity. The performance of hydro-climate prediction modeling in each allocation mechanism will be assessed. Finally, year-to-year system performance and feedback pathways are explored. In this way, the system can be adaptively managed toward equitable and efficient water use.

Economic analysis of the potential impact of climate change on recreational trout fishing in the Southern Appalachian Mountains: An appication of a nested multinomial logti model

Treesearch

Soeun Ahn; Joseph E. de Steiguer; Raymond B. Palmquist; Thomas P. Holmes

2000-01-01

Global warming due to the enhanced greenhouse effect through human activities has become a major public policy issue in recent years. The present study focuses on the potential economic impact of climate change on recreational trout fishing in the Southern Appalachian Mountains of North Carolina. Significant reductions in trout habitat and/or populations are...

The Role of Neighborhood Context and School Climate in School-Level Academic Achievement.

PubMed

Ruiz, Linda D; McMahon, Susan D; Jason, Leonard A

2018-06-01

In recent years, the quality of education available to children has become increasingly dependent on the social and economic demographics of neighborhoods in which the children live. This study assesses the role of community violence in explaining the relation between socio-economic status (SES) and academic outcomes and the potential of positive school climate to promote academic achievement. With a sample of 297 Chicago public elementary schools, we examine community-level and school-level data and use Geographic Information Systems (GIS) mapping to illustrate how school academic achievement coincides with neighborhood economics and crime statistics. Results support the hypothesized mediation, such that lower SES was associated with lower academic achievement, and violent crime partially mediated this relation. School climate was positively associated with academic achievement, and student safety significantly moderated the relation between SES and academic achievement. Implications for theory, research, and intervention are discussed. © Society for Community Research and Action 2018.

Efficient transport of tropospheric aerosol into the stratosphere via the Asian summer monsoon anticyclone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Pengfei; Rosenlof, Karen H.; Liu, Shang; Telg, Hagen; Thornberry, Troy D.; Rollins, Andrew W.; Portmann, Robert W.; Bai, Zhixuan; Ray, Eric A.; Duan, Yunjun; Pan, Laura L.; Toon, Owen B.; Bian, Jianchun; Gao, Ru-Shan

2017-07-01

An enhanced aerosol layer near the tropopause over Asia during the June-September period of the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) was recently identified using satellite observations. Its sources and climate impact are presently not well-characterized. To improve understanding of this phenomenon, we made in situ aerosol measurements during summer 2015 from Kunming, China, then followed with a modeling study to assess the global significance. The in situ measurements revealed a robust enhancement in aerosol concentration that extended up to 2 km above the tropopause. A climate model simulation demonstrates that the abundant anthropogenic aerosol precursor emissions from Asia coupled with rapid vertical transport associated with monsoon convection leads to significant particle formation in the upper troposphere within the ASM anticyclone. These particles subsequently spread throughout the entire Northern Hemispheric (NH) lower stratosphere and contribute significantly (˜15%) to the NH stratospheric column aerosol surface area on an annual basis. This contribution is comparable to that from the sum of small volcanic eruptions in the period between 2000 and 2015. Although the ASM contribution is smaller than that from tropical upwelling (˜35%), we find that this region is about three times as efficient per unit area and time in populating the NH stratosphere with aerosol. With a substantial amount of organic and sulfur emissions in Asia, the ASM anticyclone serves as an efficient smokestack venting aerosols to the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. As economic growth continues in Asia, the relative importance of Asian emissions to stratospheric aerosol is likely to increase.

Reviewing the economic efficiency of disaster risk management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mechler, Reinhard

2013-04-01

There is a lot of rhetoric suggesting that disaster risk management (DRM) pays, yet surprisingly little in the way of hard facts. Cost-benefit analysis (CBA) is one major tool that can provide quantitative information about the prioritization of disaster risk management (DRM) (and climate adaptation) based on economic principles. Yet, on a global scale, there has been surprisingly little robust evidence on the economic efficiency and benefits of risk management measures. This review shows that for the limited evidence reported the economic case for DRM across a range of hazards is strong and that the benefits of investing in DRM outweigh the costs of doing so, on average, by about four times the cost in terms of avoided and reduced losses. Most studies using a CBA approach focus on structural DRM and most information has been made available on physical flood prevention. There have been some limited studies on preparedness and risk financing. The global evidence base is limited and estimates appear not very solid, and overall, in line with the conclusion of the recent IPCC SREX report, there is limited evidence and medium agreement across the literature. Some of the factors behind the limited robustness are inherent to CBA more widely: these challenges comprise the inability to price intangibles, evaluating strategies rather than single projects, difficulties in assessing softer rather than infrastructure-related options, choices regarding a proper discount rate, lack of accounting for the distribution of benefits and costs and difficulties with assessing nonmarket values such as those related to health, the environment, or public goods. Although techniques exist to address some of these challenges, they are not very likely to easily go away. Other challenges associated specifically with DRM, such as the need and difficulty to undertake risk -based analysis can be overcome, and there have been manuals and reports providing a way forward. In an age of austerity, cost-benefit analysis continues to be an important tool for prioritising efficient DRM measures, yet with a shifting emphasis from infrastructure-based options (hard resilience) to preparedness and systemic interventions (soft resilience), other tools such as cost-effectiveness analysis, multi-criteria analysis and robust decision-making approaches deserve more attention.

Techno-economic assessment of the need for bulk energy storage in low-carbon electricity systems with a focus on compressed air storage (CAES)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Safaei Mohamadabadi, Hossein

Increasing electrification of the economy while decarbonizing the electricity supply is among the most effective strategies for cutting greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in order to abate climate change. This thesis offers insights into the role of bulk energy storage (BES) systems to cut GHG emissions from the electricity sector. Wind and solar energies can supply large volumes of low-carbon electricity. Nevertheless, large penetration of these resources poses serious reliability concerns to the grid, mainly because of their intermittency. This thesis evaluates the performance of BES systems - especially compressed air energy storage (CAES) technology - for integration of wind energy from engineering and economic aspects. Analytical thermodynamic analysis of Distributed CAES (D-CAES) and Adiabatic CAES (A-CAES) suggest high roundtrip storage efficiencies ( 80% and 70%) compared to conventional CAES ( 50%). Using hydrogen to fuel CAES plants - instead of natural gas - yields a low overall efficiency ( 35%), despite its negligible GHG emissions. The techno-economic study of D-CAES shows that exporting compression heat to low-temperature loads (e.g. space heating) can enhance both the economic and emissions performance of compressed air storage plants. A case study for Alberta, Canada reveals that the abatement cost of replacing a conventional CAES with D-CAES plant practicing electricity arbitrage can be negative (-$40 per tCO2e, when the heat load is 50 km away from the air storage site). A green-field simulation finds that reducing the capital cost of BES - even drastically below current levels - does not substantially impact the cost of low-carbon electricity. At a 70% reduction in the GHG emissions intensity of the grid, gas turbines remain three times more cost-efficient in managing the wind variability compared to BES (in the best case and with a 15-minute resolution). Wind and solar thus, do not need to wait for availability of cheap BES systems to cost-effectively decarbonize the grid. The prospects of A-CAES seem to be stronger compared to other BES systems due to its low energy-specific capital cost.