Impacts of multiple global environmental changes on African crop yield and water use efficiency: Implications to food and water security

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pan, S.; Yang, J.; Zhang, J.; Xu, R.; Dangal, S. R. S.; Zhang, B.; Tian, H.

2016-12-01

Africa is one of the most vulnerable regions in the world to climate change and climate variability. Much concern has been raised about the impacts of climate and other environmental factors on water resource and food security through the climate-water-food nexus. Understanding the responses of crop yield and water use efficiency to environmental changes is particularly important because Africa is well known for widespread poverty, slow economic growth and agricultural systems particularly sensitive to frequent and persistent droughts. However, the lack of integrated understanding has limited our ability to quantify and predict the potential of Africa's agricultural sustainability and freshwater supply, and to better manage the system for meeting an increasing food demand in a way that is socially and environmentally or ecologically sustainable. By using the Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model (DLEM-AG2) driven by spatially-explicit information on land use, climate and other environmental changes, we have assessed the spatial and temporal patterns of crop yield, evapotranspiration (ET) and water use efficiency across entire Africa in the past 35 years (1980-2015) and the rest of the 21st century (2016-2099). Our preliminary results indicate that African crop yield in the past three decades shows an increasing trend primarily due to cropland expansion (about 50%), elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration, and nitrogen deposition. However, crop yield shows substantially spatial and temporal variation due to inter-annual and inter-decadal climate variability and spatial heterogeneity of environmental drivers. Climate extremes especially droughts and heat wave have largely reduced crop yield in the most vulnerable regions. Our results indicate that N fertilizer could be a major driver to improve food security in Africa. Future climate warming could reduce crop yield and shift cropland distribution. Our study further suggests that improving water use efficiency through land management practices including the increased uses of fertilizers and irrigation will be the key for reducing the loss of crop yield in a warming climate and extreme weather.

Climate change impacts on soil carbon storage in global croplands: 1901-2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ren, W.; Tian, H.

2015-12-01

New global data finds 12% of earth's surface in cropland at present. Croplands will take on the responsibility to support approximate 60% increase in food production by 2050 as FAO estimates. In addition to nutrient supply to plants, cropland soils also play a major source and sink of greenhouse gases regulating global climate system. It is a big challenge to understand how soils function under global changes, but it is also a great opportunity for agricultural sector to manage soils to assure sustainability of agroecosystems and mitigate climate change. Previous studies have attempted to investigate the impacts of different land uses and climates on cropland soil carbon storage. However, large uncertainty still exists in magnitude and spatiotemporal patterns of global cropland soil organic carbon, due to the lack of reliable environmental databases and relatively poorly understanding of multiple controlling factors involved climate change and land use etc. Here, we use a process-based agroecosystem model (DLEM-Ag) in combination with diverse data sources to quantify magnitude and tempo-spatial patterns of soil carbon storage in global croplands during 1901-2010. We also analyze the relative contributions of major environmental variables (climate change, land use and management etc.). Our results indicate that intensive land use management may hidden the vulnerability of cropland soils to climate change in some regions, which may greatly weaken soil carbon sequestration under future climate change.

Historical Pattern and Future Trajectories of Terrestrial N2O Emission driven by Multi-factor Global Changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, C.; Tian, H.; Yang, J.; Zhang, B.; Xu, R.

2015-12-01

Nitrous oxide (N2O) is among the most important greenhouse gases only next to carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) due to its long life time and high radiative forcing (with a global warming potential 265 times as much as CO2 at 100-year time horizon). The Atmospheric concentration of N2O has increased by 20% since pre-industrial era, and this increase plays a significant role in shaping anthropogenic climate change. However, compared to CO2- and CH4-related research, fewer studies have been performed in assessing and predicting the spatiotemporal patterns of N2O emission from natural and agricultural soils. Here we used a coupled biogeochemical model, DLEM, to quantify the historical and future changes in global terrestrial N2O emissions resulting from natural and anthropogenic perturbations including climate variability, atmospheric CO2 concentration, nitrogen deposition, land use and land cover changes, and agricultural land management practices (i.e., synthetic nitrogen fertilizer use, manure application, and irrigation etc.) over the period 1900-2099. We focused on inter-annual variation and long-term trend of terrestrial N2O emission driven by individual and combined environmental changes during historical and future periods. The sensitivity of N2O emission to climate, atmospheric composition, and human activities has been examined at biome-, latitudinal, continental and global scales. Future projections were conducted to identify the hot spots and hot time periods of global N2O emission under two emission scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). It provides a modeling perspective for understanding human-induced N2O emission growth and developing potential management strategies to mitigate further atmospheric N2O increase and climate warming.

The EBM-DPSER Conceptual Model: Integrating Ecosystem Services into the DPSIR Framework

PubMed Central

Kelble, Christopher R.; Loomis, Dave K.; Lovelace, Susan; Nuttle, William K.; Ortner, Peter B.; Fletcher, Pamela; Cook, Geoffrey S.; Lorenz, Jerry J.; Boyer, Joseph N.

2013-01-01

There is a pressing need to integrate biophysical and human dimensions science to better inform holistic ecosystem management supporting the transition from single species or single-sector management to multi-sector ecosystem-based management. Ecosystem-based management should focus upon ecosystem services, since they reflect societal goals, values, desires, and benefits. The inclusion of ecosystem services into holistic management strategies improves management by better capturing the diversity of positive and negative human-natural interactions and making explicit the benefits to society. To facilitate this inclusion, we propose a conceptual model that merges the broadly applied Driver, Pressure, State, Impact, and Response (DPSIR) conceptual model with ecosystem services yielding a Driver, Pressure, State, Ecosystem service, and Response (EBM-DPSER) conceptual model. The impact module in traditional DPSIR models focuses attention upon negative anthropomorphic impacts on the ecosystem; by replacing impacts with ecosystem services the EBM-DPSER model incorporates not only negative, but also positive changes in the ecosystem. Responses occur as a result of changes in ecosystem services and include inter alia management actions directed at proactively altering human population or individual behavior and infrastructure to meet societal goals. The EBM-DPSER conceptual model was applied to the Florida Keys and Dry Tortugas marine ecosystem as a case study to illustrate how it can inform management decisions. This case study captures our system-level understanding and results in a more holistic representation of ecosystem and human society interactions, thus improving our ability to identify trade-offs. The EBM-DPSER model should be a useful operational tool for implementing EBM, in that it fully integrates our knowledge of all ecosystem components while focusing management attention upon those aspects of the ecosystem most important to human society and does so within a framework already familiar to resource managers. PMID:23951002

The EBM-DPSER conceptual model: integrating ecosystem services into the DPSIR framework.

PubMed

Kelble, Christopher R; Loomis, Dave K; Lovelace, Susan; Nuttle, William K; Ortner, Peter B; Fletcher, Pamela; Cook, Geoffrey S; Lorenz, Jerry J; Boyer, Joseph N

2013-01-01

There is a pressing need to integrate biophysical and human dimensions science to better inform holistic ecosystem management supporting the transition from single species or single-sector management to multi-sector ecosystem-based management. Ecosystem-based management should focus upon ecosystem services, since they reflect societal goals, values, desires, and benefits. The inclusion of ecosystem services into holistic management strategies improves management by better capturing the diversity of positive and negative human-natural interactions and making explicit the benefits to society. To facilitate this inclusion, we propose a conceptual model that merges the broadly applied Driver, Pressure, State, Impact, and Response (DPSIR) conceptual model with ecosystem services yielding a Driver, Pressure, State, Ecosystem service, and Response (EBM-DPSER) conceptual model. The impact module in traditional DPSIR models focuses attention upon negative anthropomorphic impacts on the ecosystem; by replacing impacts with ecosystem services the EBM-DPSER model incorporates not only negative, but also positive changes in the ecosystem. Responses occur as a result of changes in ecosystem services and include inter alia management actions directed at proactively altering human population or individual behavior and infrastructure to meet societal goals. The EBM-DPSER conceptual model was applied to the Florida Keys and Dry Tortugas marine ecosystem as a case study to illustrate how it can inform management decisions. This case study captures our system-level understanding and results in a more holistic representation of ecosystem and human society interactions, thus improving our ability to identify trade-offs. The EBM-DPSER model should be a useful operational tool for implementing EBM, in that it fully integrates our knowledge of all ecosystem components while focusing management attention upon those aspects of the ecosystem most important to human society and does so within a framework already familiar to resource managers.

Benchmarking Terrestrial Ecosystem Models in the South Central US

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kc, M.; Winton, K.; Langston, M. A.; Luo, Y.

2016-12-01

Ecosystem services and products are the foundation of sustainability for regional and global economy since we are directly or indirectly dependent on the ecosystem services like food, livestock, water, air, wildlife etc. It has been increasingly recognized that for sustainability concerns, the conservation problems need to be addressed in the context of entire ecosystems. This approach is even more vital in the 21st century with formidable increasing human population and rapid changes in global environment. This study was conducted to find the state of the science of ecosystem models in the South-Central region of US. The ecosystem models were benchmarked using ILAMB diagnostic package developed as a result of International Land Model Benchmarking (ILAMB) project on four main categories; viz, Ecosystem and Carbon Cycle, Hydrology Cycle, Radiation and Energy Cycle and Climate forcings. A cumulative assessment was generated with weighted seven different skill assessment metrics for the ecosystem models. This synthesis on the current state of the science of ecosystem modeling in the South-Central region of US will be highly useful towards coupling these models with climate, agronomic, hydrologic, economic or management models to better represent ecosystem dynamics as affected by climate change and human activities; and hence gain more reliable predictions of future ecosystem functions and service in the region. Better understandings of such processes will increase our ability to predict the ecosystem responses and feedbacks to environmental and human induced change in the region so that decision makers can make an informed management decisions of the ecosystem.

Assessing Ecosystem Model Performance in Semiarid Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomas, A.; Dietze, M.; Scott, R. L.; Biederman, J. A.

2017-12-01

In ecosystem process modelling, comparing outputs to benchmark datasets observed in the field is an important way to validate models, allowing the modelling community to track model performance over time and compare models at specific sites. Multi-model comparison projects as well as models themselves have largely been focused on temperate forests and similar biomes. Semiarid regions, on the other hand, are underrepresented in land surface and ecosystem modelling efforts, and yet will be disproportionately impacted by disturbances such as climate change due to their sensitivity to changes in the water balance. Benchmarking models at semiarid sites is an important step in assessing and improving models' suitability for predicting the impact of disturbance on semiarid ecosystems. In this study, several ecosystem models were compared at a semiarid grassland in southwestern Arizona using PEcAn, or the Predictive Ecosystem Analyzer, an open-source eco-informatics toolbox ideal for creating the repeatable model workflows necessary for benchmarking. Models included SIPNET, DALEC, JULES, ED2, GDAY, LPJ-GUESS, MAESPA, CLM, CABLE, and FATES. Comparison between model output and benchmarks such as net ecosystem exchange (NEE) tended to produce high root mean square error and low correlation coefficients, reflecting poor simulation of seasonality and the tendency for models to create much higher carbon sources than observed. These results indicate that ecosystem models do not currently adequately represent semiarid ecosystem processes.

Ecosystem Model Skill Assessment. Yes We Can!

PubMed Central

Olsen, Erik; Fay, Gavin; Gaichas, Sarah; Gamble, Robert; Lucey, Sean; Link, Jason S.

2016-01-01

Need to Assess the Skill of Ecosystem Models Accelerated changes to global ecosystems call for holistic and integrated analyses of past, present and future states under various pressures to adequately understand current and projected future system states. Ecosystem models can inform management of human activities in a complex and changing environment, but are these models reliable? Ensuring that models are reliable for addressing management questions requires evaluating their skill in representing real-world processes and dynamics. Skill has been evaluated for just a limited set of some biophysical models. A range of skill assessment methods have been reviewed but skill assessment of full marine ecosystem models has not yet been attempted. Northeast US Atlantis Marine Ecosystem Model We assessed the skill of the Northeast U.S. (NEUS) Atlantis marine ecosystem model by comparing 10-year model forecasts with observed data. Model forecast performance was compared to that obtained from a 40-year hindcast. Multiple metrics (average absolute error, root mean squared error, modeling efficiency, and Spearman rank correlation), and a suite of time-series (species biomass, fisheries landings, and ecosystem indicators) were used to adequately measure model skill. Overall, the NEUS model performed above average and thus better than expected for the key species that had been the focus of the model tuning. Model forecast skill was comparable to the hindcast skill, showing that model performance does not degenerate in a 10-year forecast mode, an important characteristic for an end-to-end ecosystem model to be useful for strategic management purposes. Skill Assessment Is Both Possible and Advisable We identify best-practice approaches for end-to-end ecosystem model skill assessment that would improve both operational use of other ecosystem models and future model development. We show that it is possible to not only assess the skill of a complicated marine ecosystem model, but that it is necessary do so to instill confidence in model results and encourage their use for strategic management. Our methods are applicable to any type of predictive model, and should be considered for use in fields outside ecology (e.g. economics, climate change, and risk assessment). PMID:26731540

Linking biophysical models and public preferences for ecosystem service assessments: a case study for the Southern Rocky Mountains

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bagstad, Kenneth J.; Reed, James; Semmens, Darius J.; Sherrouse, Ben C.; Troy, Austin

2016-01-01

Through extensive research, ecosystem services have been mapped using both survey-based and biophysical approaches, but comparative mapping of public values and those quantified using models has been lacking. In this paper, we mapped hot and cold spots for perceived and modeled ecosystem services by synthesizing results from a social-values mapping study of residents living near the Pike–San Isabel National Forest (PSI), located in the Southern Rocky Mountains, with corresponding biophysically modeled ecosystem services. Social-value maps for the PSI were developed using the Social Values for Ecosystem Services tool, providing statistically modeled continuous value surfaces for 12 value types, including aesthetic, biodiversity, and life-sustaining values. Biophysically modeled maps of carbon sequestration and storage, scenic viewsheds, sediment regulation, and water yield were generated using the Artificial Intelligence for Ecosystem Services tool. Hotspots for both perceived and modeled services were disproportionately located within the PSI’s wilderness areas. Additionally, we used regression analysis to evaluate spatial relationships between perceived biodiversity and cultural ecosystem services and corresponding biophysical model outputs. Our goal was to determine whether publicly valued locations for aesthetic, biodiversity, and life-sustaining values relate meaningfully to results from corresponding biophysical ecosystem service models. We found weak relationships between perceived and biophysically modeled services, indicating that public perception of ecosystem service provisioning regions is limited. We believe that biophysical and social approaches to ecosystem service mapping can serve as methodological complements that can advance ecosystem services-based resource management, benefitting resource managers by showing potential locations of synergy or conflict between areas supplying ecosystem services and those valued by the public.

Assimilation of satellite color observations in a coupled ocean GCM-ecosystem model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sarmiento, Jorge L.

1992-01-01

Monthly average coastal zone color scanner (CZCS) estimates of chlorophyll concentration were assimilated into an ocean global circulation model(GCM) containing a simple model of the pelagic ecosystem. The assimilation was performed in the simplest possible manner, to allow the assessment of whether there were major problems with the ecosystem model or with the assimilation procedure. The current ecosystem model performed well in some regions, but failed in others to assimilate chlorophyll estimates without disrupting important ecosystem properties. This experiment gave insight into those properties of the ecosystem model that must be changed to allow data assimilation to be generally successful, while raising other important issues about the assimilation procedure.

Ecosystem Model Skill Assessment. Yes We Can!

PubMed

Olsen, Erik; Fay, Gavin; Gaichas, Sarah; Gamble, Robert; Lucey, Sean; Link, Jason S

2016-01-01

Accelerated changes to global ecosystems call for holistic and integrated analyses of past, present and future states under various pressures to adequately understand current and projected future system states. Ecosystem models can inform management of human activities in a complex and changing environment, but are these models reliable? Ensuring that models are reliable for addressing management questions requires evaluating their skill in representing real-world processes and dynamics. Skill has been evaluated for just a limited set of some biophysical models. A range of skill assessment methods have been reviewed but skill assessment of full marine ecosystem models has not yet been attempted. We assessed the skill of the Northeast U.S. (NEUS) Atlantis marine ecosystem model by comparing 10-year model forecasts with observed data. Model forecast performance was compared to that obtained from a 40-year hindcast. Multiple metrics (average absolute error, root mean squared error, modeling efficiency, and Spearman rank correlation), and a suite of time-series (species biomass, fisheries landings, and ecosystem indicators) were used to adequately measure model skill. Overall, the NEUS model performed above average and thus better than expected for the key species that had been the focus of the model tuning. Model forecast skill was comparable to the hindcast skill, showing that model performance does not degenerate in a 10-year forecast mode, an important characteristic for an end-to-end ecosystem model to be useful for strategic management purposes. We identify best-practice approaches for end-to-end ecosystem model skill assessment that would improve both operational use of other ecosystem models and future model development. We show that it is possible to not only assess the skill of a complicated marine ecosystem model, but that it is necessary do so to instill confidence in model results and encourage their use for strategic management. Our methods are applicable to any type of predictive model, and should be considered for use in fields outside ecology (e.g. economics, climate change, and risk assessment).

Terrestrial biogeochemical cycles: global interactions with the atmosphere and hydrology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schimel, David S.; Kittel, Timothy G. F.; Parton, William J.

1991-08-01

Ecosystem scientists have developed a body of theory to predict the behaviour of biogeochemical cycles when exchanges with other ecosystems are small or prescribed. Recent environmental changes make it clear that linkages between ecosystems via atmospheric and hydrological transport have large effects on ecosystem dynamics when considered over time periods of a decade to a century, time scales relevant to contemporary humankind. Our ability to predict behaviour of ecosystems coupled by transport is limited by our ability (1) to extrapolate biotic function to large spatial scales and (2) to measure and model transport. We review developments in ecosystem theory, remote sensing, and geographical information systems (GIS) that support new efforts in spatial modeling. A paradigm has emerged to predict behaviour of ecosystems based on understanding responses to multiple resources (e.g., water, nutrients, light). Several ecosystem models couple primary production to decomposition and nutrient availability using the above paradigm. These models require a fairly small set of environmental variables to simulate spatial and temporal variation in rates of biogeochemical cycling. Simultaneously, techniques for inferring ecosystem behaviour from remotely measured canopy light interception are improving our ability to infer plant activity from satellite observations. Efforts have begun to couple models of transport in air and water to models of ecosystem function. Preliminary work indicates that coupling of transport and ecosystem processes alters the behaviour of earth system components (hydrology, terrestrial ecosystems, and the atmosphere) from that of an uncoupled mode.

USGS River Ecosystem Modeling: Where Are We, How Did We Get Here, and Where Are We Going?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hanson, Leanne; Schrock, Robin; Waddle, Terry; Duda, Jeffrey J.; Lellis, Bill

2009-01-01

This report developed as an outcome of the USGS River Ecosystem Modeling Work Group, convened on February 11, 2008 as a preconference session to the second USGS Modeling Conference in Orange Beach, Ala. Work Group participants gained an understanding of the types of models currently being applied to river ecosystem studies within the USGS, learned how model outputs are being used by a Federal land management agency, and developed recommendations for advancing the state of the art in river ecosystem modeling within the USGS. During a break-out session, participants restated many of the recommendations developed at the first USGS Modeling Conference in 2006 and in previous USGS needs assessments. All Work Group recommendations require organization and coordination across USGS disciplines and regions, and include (1) enhancing communications, (2) increasing efficiency through better use of current human and technologic resources, and (3) providing a national infrastructure for river ecosystem modeling resources, making it easier to integrate modeling efforts. By implementing these recommendations, the USGS will benefit from enhanced multi-disciplinary, integrated models for river ecosystems that provide valuable risk assessment and decision support tools for adaptive management of natural and managed riverine ecosystems. These tools generate key information that resource managers need and can use in making decisions about river ecosystem resources.

Towards a Stochastic Predictive Understanding of Ecosystem Functioning and Resilience to Environmental Changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pappas, C.

2017-12-01

Terrestrial ecosystem processes respond differently to hydrometeorological variability across timescales, and so does our scientific understanding of the underlying mechanisms. Process-based modeling of ecosystem functioning is therefore challenging, especially when long-term predictions are envisioned. Here we analyze the statistical properties of hydrometeorological and ecosystem variability, i.e., the variability of ecosystem process related to vegetation carbon dynamics, from hourly to decadal timescales. 23 extra-tropical forest sites, covering different climatic zones and vegetation characteristics, are examined. Micrometeorological and reanalysis data of precipitation, air temperature, shortwave radiation and vapor pressure deficit are used to describe hydrometeorological variability. Ecosystem variability is quantified using long-term eddy covariance flux data of hourly net ecosystem exchange of CO2 between land surface and atmosphere, monthly remote sensing vegetation indices, annual tree-ring widths and above-ground biomass increment estimates. We find that across sites and timescales ecosystem variability is confined within a hydrometeorological envelope that describes the range of variability of the available resources, i.e., water and energy. Furthermore, ecosystem variability demonstrates long-term persistence, highlighting ecological memory and slow ecosystem recovery rates after disturbances. We derive an analytical model, combining deterministic harmonics and stochastic processes, that represents major mechanisms and uncertainties and mimics the observed pattern of hydrometeorological and ecosystem variability. This stochastic framework offers a parsimonious and mathematically tractable approach for modelling ecosystem functioning and for understanding its response and resilience to environmental changes. Furthermore, this framework reflects well the observed ecological memory, an inherent property of ecosystem functioning that is currently not captured by simulation results with process-based models. Our analysis offers a perspective for terrestrial ecosystem modelling, combining current process understanding with stochastic methods, and paves the way for new model-data integration opportunities in Earth system sciences.

POEM: PESTICIDE ORCHARD ECOSYSTEM MODEL

EPA Science Inventory

The Pesticide Orchard Ecosystem Model (POEM) is a mathematical model of organophosphate pesticide movement in an apple orchard ecosystem. In addition submodels on invertebrate population dynamics are included. The fate model allows the user to select the pesticide, its applicatio...

Comparing approaches to spatially explicit ecosystem service modeling: a case study from the San Pedro River, Arizona

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bagstad, Kenneth J.; Semmens, Darius J.; Winthrop, Robert

2013-01-01

Although the number of ecosystem service modeling tools has grown in recent years, quantitative comparative studies of these tools have been lacking. In this study, we applied two leading open-source, spatially explicit ecosystem services modeling tools – Artificial Intelligence for Ecosystem Services (ARIES) and Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) – to the San Pedro River watershed in southeast Arizona, USA, and northern Sonora, Mexico. We modeled locally important services that both modeling systems could address – carbon, water, and scenic viewsheds. We then applied managerially relevant scenarios for urban growth and mesquite management to quantify ecosystem service changes. InVEST and ARIES use different modeling approaches and ecosystem services metrics; for carbon, metrics were more similar and results were more easily comparable than for viewsheds or water. However, findings demonstrate similar gains and losses of ecosystem services and conclusions when comparing effects across our scenarios. Results were more closely aligned for landscape-scale urban-growth scenarios and more divergent for a site-scale mesquite-management scenario. Follow-up studies, including testing in different geographic contexts, can improve our understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of these and other ecosystem services modeling tools as they move closer to readiness for supporting day-to-day resource management.

Modelling impacts of second generation bioenergy production on Ecosystem Services in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Henner, Dagmar N.; Smith, Pete; Davies, Christian; McNamara, Niall P.

2015-04-01

Bioenergy crops are an important source of renewable energy and are a possible mechanism to mitigate global climate warming, by replacing fossil fuel energy with higher greenhouse gas emissions. There is, however, uncertainty about the impacts of the growth of bioenergy crops on ecosystem services. This uncertainty is further enhanced by the unpredictable climate change currently going on. The goal of this project is to develop a comprehensive model that covers as many ecosystem services as possible at a Continental level including biodiversity, water, GHG emissions, soil, and cultural services. The distribution and production of second generation energy crops, such as Miscanthus, Short Rotation Coppice (SRC) and Short Rotation Forestry (SRF), is currently being modelled, and ecosystem models will be used to examine the impacts of these crops on ecosystem services. The project builds on models of energy crop production, biodiversity, soil impacts, greenhouse gas emissions and other ecosystem services, and on work undertaken in the UK on the ETI-funded ELUM project (www.elum.ac.uk). In addition, methods like water footprint tools, tourism value maps and ecosystem valuation tools and models (e.g. InVest, TEEB database, GREET LCA Model, World Business Council for Sustainable Development corporate ecosystem valuation, Millennium Ecosystem Assessment and the Ecosystem Services Framework) will be utilised. Research will focus on optimisation of land use change feedbacks on ecosystem services and biodiversity, and weighting of the importance of the individual ecosystem services. Energy crops will be modelled using low, medium and high climate change scenarios for the years between 2015 and 2050. We will present first results for GHG emissions and soil organic carbon change after different land use change scenarios (e.g. arable to Miscanthus, forest to SRF), and with different climate warming scenarios. All this will be complemented by the presentation of a matrix including all the factors and ecosystem services influenced by land use change to bioenergy crop production under different climate change scenarios.

Population-reaction model and microbial experimental ecosystems for understanding hierarchical dynamics of ecosystems.

PubMed

Hosoda, Kazufumi; Tsuda, Soichiro; Kadowaki, Kohmei; Nakamura, Yutaka; Nakano, Tadashi; Ishii, Kojiro

2016-02-01

Understanding ecosystem dynamics is crucial as contemporary human societies face ecosystem degradation. One of the challenges that needs to be recognized is the complex hierarchical dynamics. Conventional dynamic models in ecology often represent only the population level and have yet to include the dynamics of the sub-organism level, which makes an ecosystem a complex adaptive system that shows characteristic behaviors such as resilience and regime shifts. The neglect of the sub-organism level in the conventional dynamic models would be because integrating multiple hierarchical levels makes the models unnecessarily complex unless supporting experimental data are present. Now that large amounts of molecular and ecological data are increasingly accessible in microbial experimental ecosystems, it is worthwhile to tackle the questions of their complex hierarchical dynamics. Here, we propose an approach that combines microbial experimental ecosystems and a hierarchical dynamic model named population-reaction model. We present a simple microbial experimental ecosystem as an example and show how the system can be analyzed by a population-reaction model. We also show that population-reaction models can be applied to various ecological concepts, such as predator-prey interactions, climate change, evolution, and stability of diversity. Our approach will reveal a path to the general understanding of various ecosystems and organisms. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.. All rights reserved.

A multi-objective constraint-based approach for modeling genome-scale microbial ecosystems.

PubMed

Budinich, Marko; Bourdon, Jérémie; Larhlimi, Abdelhalim; Eveillard, Damien

2017-01-01

Interplay within microbial communities impacts ecosystems on several scales, and elucidation of the consequent effects is a difficult task in ecology. In particular, the integration of genome-scale data within quantitative models of microbial ecosystems remains elusive. This study advocates the use of constraint-based modeling to build predictive models from recent high-resolution -omics datasets. Following recent studies that have demonstrated the accuracy of constraint-based models (CBMs) for simulating single-strain metabolic networks, we sought to study microbial ecosystems as a combination of single-strain metabolic networks that exchange nutrients. This study presents two multi-objective extensions of CBMs for modeling communities: multi-objective flux balance analysis (MO-FBA) and multi-objective flux variability analysis (MO-FVA). Both methods were applied to a hot spring mat model ecosystem. As a result, multiple trade-offs between nutrients and growth rates, as well as thermodynamically favorable relative abundances at community level, were emphasized. We expect this approach to be used for integrating genomic information in microbial ecosystems. Following models will provide insights about behaviors (including diversity) that take place at the ecosystem scale.

The evolution of ecosystem ascendency in a complex systems based model.

PubMed

Brinck, Katharina; Jensen, Henrik Jeldtoft

2017-09-07

General patterns in ecosystem development can shed light on driving forces behind ecosystem formation and recovery and have been of long interest. In recent years, the need for integrative and process oriented approaches to capture ecosystem growth, development and organisation, as well as the scope of information theory as a descriptive tool has been addressed from various sides. However data collection of ecological network flows is difficult and tedious and comprehensive models are lacking. We use a hierarchical version of the Tangled Nature Model of evolutionary ecology to study the relationship between structure, flow and organisation in model ecosystems, their development over evolutionary time scales and their relation to ecosystem stability. Our findings support the validity of ecosystem ascendency as a meaningful measure of ecosystem organisation, which increases over evolutionary time scales and significantly drops during periods of disturbance. The results suggest a general trend towards both higher integrity and increased stability driven by functional and structural ecosystem coadaptation. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Ecological Assimilation of Land and Climate Observations - the EALCO model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, S.; Zhang, Y.; Trishchenko, A.

2004-05-01

Ecosystems are intrinsically dynamic and interact with climate at a highly integrated level. Climate variables are the main driving factors in controlling the ecosystem physical, physiological, and biogeochemical processes including energy balance, water balance, photosynthesis, respiration, and nutrient cycling. On the other hand, ecosystems function as an integrity and feedback on the climate system through their control on surface radiation balance, energy partitioning, and greenhouse gases exchange. To improve our capability in climate change impact assessment, a comprehensive ecosystem model is required to address the many interactions between climate change and ecosystems. In addition, different ecosystems can have very different responses to the climate change and its variation. To provide more scientific support for ecosystem impact assessment at national scale, it is imperative that ecosystem models have the capability of assimilating the large scale geospatial information including satellite observations, GIS datasets, and climate model outputs or reanalysis. The EALCO model (Ecological Assimilation of Land and Climate Observations) is developed for such purposes. EALCO includes the comprehensive interactions among ecosystem processes and climate, and assimilates a variety of remote sensing products and GIS database. It provides both national and local scale model outputs for ecosystem responses to climate change including radiation and energy balances, water conditions and hydrological cycles, carbon sequestration and greenhouse gas exchange, and nutrient (N) cycling. These results form the foundation for the assessment of climate change impact on ecosystems, their services, and adaptation options. In this poster, the main algorithms for the radiation, energy, water, carbon, and nitrogen simulations were diagrammed. Sample input data layers at Canada national scale were illustrated. Model outputs including the Canada wide spatial distributions of net radiation, evapotranspiration, gross primary production, net primary production, and net ecosystem production were discussed.

Comparing two tools for ecosystem service assessments regarding water resources decisions.

PubMed

Dennedy-Frank, P James; Muenich, Rebecca Logsdon; Chaubey, Indrajeet; Ziv, Guy

2016-07-15

We present a comparison of two ecohydrologic models commonly used for planning land management to assess the production of hydrologic ecosystem services: the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) annual water yield model. We compare these two models at two distinct sites in the US: the Wildcat Creek Watershed in Indiana and the Upper Upatoi Creek Watershed in Georgia. The InVEST and SWAT models provide similar estimates of the spatial distribution of water yield in Wildcat Creek, but very different estimates of the spatial distribution of water yield in Upper Upatoi Creek. The InVEST model may do a poor job estimating the spatial distribution of water yield in the Upper Upatoi Creek Watershed because baseflow provides a significant portion of the site's total water yield, which means that storage dynamics which are not modeled by InVEST may be important. We also compare the ability of these two models, as well as one newly developed set of ecosystem service indices, to deliver useful guidance for land management decisions focused on providing hydrologic ecosystem services in three particular decision contexts: environmental flow ecosystem services, ecosystem services for potable water supply, and ecosystem services for rainfed irrigation. We present a simple framework for selecting models or indices to evaluate hydrologic ecosystem services as a way to formalize where models deliver useful guidance. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Examining Ecological and Ecosystem Level Impacts of Aquatic Invasive Species in Lake Michigan Using An Ecosystem Productivity Model, LM-Eco

EPA Science Inventory

Ecological and ecosystem-level impacts of aquatic invasive species in Lake Michigan were examined using the Lake Michigan Ecosystem Model (LM-Eco). The LM-Eco model includes a detailed description of trophic levels and their interactions within the lower food web of Lake Michiga...

Strategy for modeling putative multilevel ecosystems on Europa.

PubMed

Irwin, Louis N; Schulze-Makuch, Dirk

2003-01-01

A general strategy for modeling ecosystems on other worlds is described. Two alternative biospheres beneath the ice surface of Europa are modeled, based on analogous ecosystems on Earth in potentially comparable habitats, with reallocation of biomass quantities consistent with different sources of energy and chemical constituents. The first ecosystem models a benthic biosphere supported by chemoautotrophic producers. The second models two concentrations of biota at the top and bottom of the subsurface water column supported by energy harvested from transmembrane ionic gradients. Calculations indicate the plausibility of both ecosystems, including small macroorganisms at the highest trophic levels, with ionotrophy supporting a larger biomass than chemoautotrophy.

Remote sensing and modeling to fill the “gap” in missing natural capital

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bagstad, Kenneth J.; Willcock, Simon; Lange, Glenn-Marie

2018-01-01

This chapter reviews recent advances in remote sensing and environmental modeling that address the first step in ecosystem accounting: biophysical quantification of ecosystem services. The chapter focuses on those ecosystem services in which the most rapid advances are likely, including crop pollination, sediment regulation, carbon sequestration and storage, and coastal flood regulation. The discussion highlights data sources and modeling approaches that can support wealth accounting, next steps for mapping and biophysical modeling of ecosystem services, and considerations for integrating biophysical modeling and monetary valuation. These approaches could make the inclusion of some ecosystem services increasingly feasible in future versions of wealth accounts.

Integrating ecosystem sampling, gradient modeling, remote sensing, and ecosystem simulation to create spatially explicit landscape inventories

Treesearch

Robert E. Keane; Matthew G. Rollins; Cecilia H. McNicoll; Russell A. Parsons

2002-01-01

Presented is a prototype of the Landscape Ecosystem Inventory System (LEIS), a system for creating maps of important landscape characteristics for natural resource planning. This system uses gradient-based field inventories coupled with gradient modeling remote sensing, ecosystem simulation, and statistical analyses to derive spatial data layers required for ecosystem...

Modeling of the nearshore marine ecosystem with the AQUATOX model

EPA Science Inventory

Process-based models can be used to forecast the responses of coastal ecosystems to changes under future scenarios. However, most models applied to coastal systems do not include higher trophic levels, which are important providers of ecosystem services. AQUATOX is a mechanistic...

Terrestrial biogeochemical cycles - Global interactions with the atmosphere and hydrology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schimel, David S.; Parton, William J.; Kittel, Timothy G. F.

1991-01-01

A review is presented of developments in ecosystem theory, remote sensing, and geographic information systems that support new endeavors in spatial modeling. A paradigm has emerged to predict ecosystem behavior based on understanding responses to multiple resources. Ecosystem models couple primary production to decomposition and nutrient availability utilizing this paradigm. It is indicated that coupling of transport and ecosystem processes alters the behavior of earth system components (terrestrial ecosystems, hydrology, and the atmosphere) from that of an uncoupled model.

Upscaling key ecosystem functions across the conterminous United States by a water‐centric ecosystem model

Treesearch

Ge Sun; Peter Caldwell; Asko Noormets; Steven G. McNulty; Erika Cohen; al. et.

2011-01-01

We developed a water‐centric monthly scale simulation model (WaSSI‐C) by integrating empirical water and carbon flux measurements from the FLUXNET network and an existing water supply and demand accounting model (WaSSI). The WaSSI‐C model was evaluated with basin‐scale evapotranspiration (ET), gross ecosystem productivity (GEP), and net ecosystem exchange (NEE)...

Development of simplified ecosystem models for applications in Earth system studies: The Century experience

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Parton, William J.; Ojima, Dennis S.; Schimel, David S.; Kittel, Timothy G. F.

1992-01-01

During the past decade, a growing need to conduct regional assessments of long-term trends of ecosystem behavior and the technology to meet this need have converged. The Century model is the product of research efforts initially intended to develop a general model of plant-soil ecosystem dynamics for the North American central grasslands. This model is now being used to simulate plant production, nutrient cycling, and soil organic matter dynamics for grassland, crop, forest, and shrub ecosystems in various regions of the world, including temperate and tropical ecosystems. This paper will focus on the philosophical approach used to develop the structure of Century. The steps included were model simplification, parameterization, and testing. In addition, the importance of acquiring regional data bases for model testing and the present regional application of Century in the Great Plains, which focus on regional ecosystem dynamics and the effect of altering environmental conditions, are discussed.

Using landscape limnology to classify freshwater ecosystems for multi-ecosystem management and conservation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Soranno, Patricia A.; Cheruvelil, Kendra Spence; Webster, Katherine E.; Bremigan, Mary T.; Wagner, Tyler; Stow, Craig A.

2010-01-01

Governmental entities are responsible for managing and conserving large numbers of lake, river, and wetland ecosystems that can be addressed only rarely on a case-by-case basis. We present a system for predictive classification modeling, grounded in the theoretical foundation of landscape limnology, that creates a tractable number of ecosystem classes to which management actions may be tailored. We demonstrate our system by applying two types of predictive classification modeling approaches to develop nutrient criteria for eutrophication management in 1998 north temperate lakes. Our predictive classification system promotes the effective management of multiple ecosystems across broad geographic scales by explicitly connecting management and conservation goals to the classification modeling approach, considering multiple spatial scales as drivers of ecosystem dynamics, and acknowledging the hierarchical structure of freshwater ecosystems. Such a system is critical for adaptive management of complex mosaics of freshwater ecosystems and for balancing competing needs for ecosystem services in a changing world.

Modelling multi-species interactions in the Barents Sea ecosystem with special emphasis on minke whales and their interactions with cod, herring and capelin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lindstrøm, Ulf; Smout, Sophie; Howell, Daniel; Bogstad, Bjarte

2009-10-01

The Barents Sea ecosystem, one of the most productive and commercially important ecosystems in the world, has experienced major fluctuations in species abundance the past five decades. Likely causes are natural variability, climate change, overfishing and predator-prey interactions. In this study, we use an age-length structured multi-species model (Gadget, Globally applicable Area-Disaggregated General Ecosystem Toolbox) to analyse the historic population dynamics of major fish and marine mammal species in the Barents Sea. The model was used to examine possible effects of a number of plausible biological and fisheries scenarios. The results suggest that changes in cod mortality from fishing or cod cannibalism levels have the largest effect on the ecosystem, while changes to the capelin fishery have had only minor effects. Alternate whale migration scenarios had only a moderate impact on the modelled ecosystem. Indirect effects are seen to be important, with cod fishing pressure, cod cannibalism and whale predation on cod having an indirect impact on capelin, emphasising the importance of multi-species modelling in understanding and managing ecosystems. Models such as the one presented here provide one step towards an ecosystem-based approach to fisheries management.

Using multiple lines of evidence to assess the risk of ecosystem collapse

PubMed Central

Regan, Tracey J.; Dinh, Minh Ngoc; Ferrari, Renata; Keith, David A.; Lester, Rebecca; Mouillot, David; Murray, Nicholas J.; Nguyen, Hoang Anh; Nicholson, Emily

2017-01-01

Effective ecosystem risk assessment relies on a conceptual understanding of ecosystem dynamics and the synthesis of multiple lines of evidence. Risk assessment protocols and ecosystem models integrate limited observational data with threat scenarios, making them valuable tools for monitoring ecosystem status and diagnosing key mechanisms of decline to be addressed by management. We applied the IUCN Red List of Ecosystems criteria to quantify the risk of collapse of the Meso-American Reef, a unique ecosystem containing the second longest barrier reef in the world. We collated a wide array of empirical data (field and remotely sensed), and used a stochastic ecosystem model to backcast past ecosystem dynamics, as well as forecast future ecosystem dynamics under 11 scenarios of threat. The ecosystem is at high risk from mass bleaching in the coming decades, with compounding effects of ocean acidification, hurricanes, pollution and fishing. The overall status of the ecosystem is Critically Endangered (plausibly Vulnerable to Critically Endangered), with notable differences among Red List criteria and data types in detecting the most severe symptoms of risk. Our case study provides a template for assessing risks to coral reefs and for further application of ecosystem models in risk assessment. PMID:28931744

Using multiple lines of evidence to assess the risk of ecosystem collapse.

PubMed

Bland, Lucie M; Regan, Tracey J; Dinh, Minh Ngoc; Ferrari, Renata; Keith, David A; Lester, Rebecca; Mouillot, David; Murray, Nicholas J; Nguyen, Hoang Anh; Nicholson, Emily

2017-09-27

Effective ecosystem risk assessment relies on a conceptual understanding of ecosystem dynamics and the synthesis of multiple lines of evidence. Risk assessment protocols and ecosystem models integrate limited observational data with threat scenarios, making them valuable tools for monitoring ecosystem status and diagnosing key mechanisms of decline to be addressed by management. We applied the IUCN Red List of Ecosystems criteria to quantify the risk of collapse of the Meso-American Reef, a unique ecosystem containing the second longest barrier reef in the world. We collated a wide array of empirical data (field and remotely sensed), and used a stochastic ecosystem model to backcast past ecosystem dynamics, as well as forecast future ecosystem dynamics under 11 scenarios of threat. The ecosystem is at high risk from mass bleaching in the coming decades, with compounding effects of ocean acidification, hurricanes, pollution and fishing. The overall status of the ecosystem is Critically Endangered (plausibly Vulnerable to Critically Endangered), with notable differences among Red List criteria and data types in detecting the most severe symptoms of risk. Our case study provides a template for assessing risks to coral reefs and for further application of ecosystem models in risk assessment. © 2017 The Authors.

Ecosystem performance monitoring of rangelands by integrating modeling and remote sensing

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wylie, Bruce K.; Boyte, Stephen P.; Major, Donald J.

2012-01-01

Monitoring rangeland ecosystem dynamics, production, and performance is valuable for researchers and land managers. However, ecosystem monitoring studies can be difficult to interpret and apply appropriately if management decisions and disturbances are inseparable from the ecosystem's climate signal. This study separates seasonal weather influences from influences caused by disturbances and management decisions, making interannual time-series analysis more consistent and interpretable. We compared the actual ecosystem performance (AEP) of five rangeland vegetation types in the Owyhee Uplands for 9 yr to their expected ecosystem performance (EEP). Integrated growing season Normalized Difference Vegetation Index data for each of the nine growing seasons served as a proxy for annual AEP. Regression-tree models used long-term site potential, seasonal weather, and land cover data sets to generate annual EEP, an estimate of ecosystem performance incorporating annual weather variations. The difference between AEP and EEP provided a performance measure for each pixel in the study area. Ecosystem performance anomalies occurred when the ecosystem performed significantly better or worse than the model predicted. About 14% of the Owyhee Uplands showed a trend of significant underperformance or overperformance (P<0.10). Land managers can use results from weather-based rangeland ecosystem performance models to help support adaptive management strategies.

The Dependencies of Ecosystem Pattern, Structure, and Dynamics on Climate, Climate Variability, and Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flanagan, S.; Hurtt, G. C.; Fisk, J. P.; Rourke, O.

2012-12-01

A robust understanding of the sensitivity of the pattern, structure, and dynamics of ecosystems to climate, climate variability, and climate change is needed to predict ecosystem responses to current and projected climate change. We present results of a study designed to first quantify the sensitivity of ecosystems to climate through the use of climate and ecosystem data, and then use the results to test the sensitivity of the climate data in a state-of the art ecosystem model. A database of available ecosystem characteristics such as mean canopy height, above ground biomass, and basal area was constructed from sources like the National Biomass and Carbon Dataset (NBCD). The ecosystem characteristics were then paired by latitude and longitude with the corresponding climate characteristics temperature, precipitation, photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) and dew point that were retrieved from the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR). The average yearly and seasonal means of the climate data, and their associated maximum and minimum values, over the 1979-2010 time frame provided by NARR were constructed and paired with the ecosystem data. The compiled results provide natural patterns of vegetation structure and distribution with regard to climate data. An advanced ecosystem model, the Ecosystem Demography model (ED), was then modified to allow yearly alterations to its mechanistic climate lookup table and used to predict the sensitivities of ecosystem pattern, structure, and dynamics to climate data. The combined ecosystem structure and climate data results were compared to ED's output to check the validity of the model. After verification, climate change scenarios such as those used in the last IPCC were run and future forest structure changes due to climate sensitivities were identified. The results of this study can be used to both quantify and test key relationships for next generation models. The sensitivity of ecosystem characteristics to climate data shown in the database construction and by the model reinforces the need for high-resolution datasets and stresses the importance of understanding and incorporating climate change scenarios into earth system models.

The Importance of Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis in Process-based Models of Carbon and Nitrogen Cycling in Terrestrial Ecosystems with Particular Emphasis on Forest Ecosystems — Selected Papers from a Workshop Organized by the International Society for Ecological Modelling (ISEM) at the Third Biennal Meeting of the International Environmental Modelling and Software Society (IEMSS) in Burlington, Vermont, USA, August 9-13, 2006

USGS Publications Warehouse

Larocque, Guy R.; Bhatti, Jagtar S.; Liu, Jinxun; Ascough, James C.; Gordon, Andrew M.

2008-01-01

Many process-based models of carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) cycles have been developed for terrestrial ecosystems, including forest ecosystems. They address many basic issues of ecosystems structure and functioning, such as the role of internal feedback in ecosystem dynamics. The critical factor in these phenomena is scale, as these processes operate at scales from the minute (e.g. particulate pollution impacts on trees and other organisms) to the global (e.g. climate change). Research efforts remain important to improve the capability of such models to better represent the dynamics of terrestrial ecosystems, including the C, nutrient, (e.g. N) and water cycles. Existing models are sufficiently well advanced to help decision makers develop sustainable management policies and planning of terrestrial ecosystems, as they make realistic predictions when used appropriately. However, decision makers must be aware of their limitations by having the opportunity to evaluate the uncertainty associated with process-based models (Smith and Heath, 2001 and Allen et al., 2004). The variation in scale of issues currently being addressed by modelling efforts makes the evaluation of uncertainty a daunting task.

A dynamic organic soil biogeochemical model for simulating the effects of wildfire on soil environmental conditions and carbon dynamics of black spruce forests

Treesearch

Shuhua Yi; A. David McGuire; Eric Kasischke; Jennifer Harden; Kristen Manies; Michelle Mack; Merritt Turetsky

2010-01-01

Ecosystem models have not comprehensively considered how interactions among fire disturbance, soil environmental conditions, and biogeochemical processes affect ecosystem dynamics in boreal forest ecosystems. In this study, we implemented a dynamic organic soil structure in the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (DOS-TEM) to investigate the effects of fire on soil temperature...

A protocol for the intercomparison of marine fishery and ecosystem models: Fish-MIP v1.0

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tittensor, Derek P.; Eddy, Tyler D.; Lotze, Heike K.; Galbraith, Eric D.; Cheung, William; Barange, Manuel; Blanchard, Julia L.; Bopp, Laurent; Bryndum-Buchholz, Andrea; Büchner, Matthias; Bulman, Catherine; Carozza, David A.; Christensen, Villy; Coll, Marta; Dunne, John P.; Fernandes, Jose A.; Fulton, Elizabeth A.; Hobday, Alistair J.; Huber, Veronika; Jennings, Simon; Jones, Miranda; Lehodey, Patrick; Link, Jason S.; Mackinson, Steve; Maury, Olivier; Niiranen, Susa; Oliveros-Ramos, Ricardo; Roy, Tilla; Schewe, Jacob; Shin, Yunne-Jai; Silva, Tiago; Stock, Charles A.; Steenbeek, Jeroen; Underwood, Philip J.; Volkholz, Jan; Watson, James R.; Walker, Nicola D.

2018-04-01

Model intercomparison studies in the climate and Earth sciences communities have been crucial to building credibility and coherence for future projections. They have quantified variability among models, spurred model development, contrasted within- and among-model uncertainty, assessed model fits to historical data, and provided ensemble projections of future change under specified scenarios. Given the speed and magnitude of anthropogenic change in the marine environment and the consequent effects on food security, biodiversity, marine industries, and society, the time is ripe for similar comparisons among models of fisheries and marine ecosystems. Here, we describe the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project protocol version 1.0 (Fish-MIP v1.0), part of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP), which is a cross-sectoral network of climate impact modellers. Given the complexity of the marine ecosystem, this class of models has substantial heterogeneity of purpose, scope, theoretical underpinning, processes considered, parameterizations, resolution (grain size), and spatial extent. This heterogeneity reflects the lack of a unified understanding of the marine ecosystem and implies that the assemblage of all models is more likely to include a greater number of relevant processes than any single model. The current Fish-MIP protocol is designed to allow these heterogeneous models to be forced with common Earth System Model (ESM) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) outputs under prescribed scenarios for historic (from the 1950s) and future (to 2100) time periods; it will be adapted to CMIP phase 6 (CMIP6) in future iterations. It also describes a standardized set of outputs for each participating Fish-MIP model to produce. This enables the broad characterization of differences between and uncertainties within models and projections when assessing climate and fisheries impacts on marine ecosystems and the services they provide. The systematic generation, collation, and comparison of results from Fish-MIP will inform an understanding of the range of plausible changes in marine ecosystems and improve our capacity to define and convey the strengths and weaknesses of model-based advice on future states of marine ecosystems and fisheries. Ultimately, Fish-MIP represents a step towards bringing together the marine ecosystem modelling community to produce consistent ensemble medium- and long-term projections of marine ecosystems.

More than Anecdotes: Fishers' Ecological Knowledge Can Fill Gaps for Ecosystem Modeling.

PubMed

Bevilacqua, Ana Helena V; Carvalho, Adriana R; Angelini, Ronaldo; Christensen, Villy

2016-01-01

Ecosystem modeling applied to fisheries remains hampered by a lack of local information. Fishers' knowledge could fill this gap, improving participation in and the management of fisheries. The same fishing area was modeled using two approaches: based on fishers' knowledge and based on scientific information. For the former, the data was collected by interviews through the Delphi methodology, and for the latter, the data was gathered from the literature. Agreement between the attributes generated by the fishers' knowledge model and scientific model is discussed and explored, aiming to improve data availability, the ecosystem model, and fisheries management. The ecosystem attributes produced from the fishers' knowledge model were consistent with the ecosystem attributes produced by the scientific model, and elaborated using only the scientific data from literature. This study provides evidence that fishers' knowledge may suitably complement scientific data, and may improve the modeling tools for the research and management of fisheries.

Ecosystem behavior at Bermuda Station [open quotes]S[close quotes] and ocean weather station [open quotes]India[close quotes]: A general circulation model and observational analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fasham, M.J.R.; Sarmiento, J.L.; Slater, R.D.

1993-06-01

One important theme of modern biological oceanography has been the attempt to develop models of how the marine ecosystem responds to variations in the physical forcing functions such as solar radiation and the wind field. The authors have addressed the problem by embedding simple ecosystem models into a seasonally forced three-dimensional general circulation model of the North Atlantic ocean. In this paper first, some of the underlying biological assumptions of the ecosystem model are presented, followed by an analysis of how well the model predicts the seasonal cycle of the biological variables at Bermuda Station s' and Ocean Weather Stationmore » India. The model gives a good overall fit to the observations but does not faithfully model the whole seasonal ecosystem model. 57 refs., 25 figs., 5 tabs.« less

Flux frequency analysis of seasonally dry ecosystem fluxes in two unique biomes of Sonora Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verduzco, V. S.; Yepez, E. A.; Robles-Morua, A.; Garatuza, J.; Rodriguez, J. C.; Watts, C.

2013-05-01

Complex dynamics from the interactions of ecosystems processes makes difficult to model the behavior of ecosystems fluxes of carbon and water in response to the variation of environmental and biological drivers. Although process oriented ecosystem models are critical tools for studying land-atmosphere fluxes, its validity depends on the appropriate parameterization of equations describing temporal and spatial changes of model state variables and their interactions. This constraint often leads to discrepancies between model simulations and observed data that reduce models reliability especially in arid and semiarid ecosystems. In the semiarid north western Mexico, ecosystem processes are fundamentally controlled by the seasonality of water and the intermittence of rain pulses which are conditions that require calibration of specific fitting functions to describe the response of ecosystem variables (i.e. NEE, GPP, ET, respiration) to these wetting and drying periods. The goal is to find functions that describe the magnitude of ecosystem fluxes during individual rain pulses and the seasonality of the ecosystem. Relaying on five years of eddy covariance flux data of a tropical dry forest and a subtropical shrubland we present a flux frequency analysis that describe the variation of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of CO2 to highlight the relevance of pulse driven dynamics controlling this flux. Preliminary results of flux frequency analysis of NEE indicate that these ecosystems are strongly controlled by the frequency distribution of rain. Also, the output of fitting functions for NEE, GPP, ET and respiration using semi-empirical functions applied at specific rain pulses compared with season-long statistically generated simulations do not agree. Seasonality and the intrinsic nature of individual pulses have different effects on ecosystem flux responses. This suggests that relationships between the nature of seasonality and individual pulses can help improve the parameterization of process oriented ecosystem models.

Management Strategy Evaluation Applied to Coral Reef Ecosystems in Support of Ecosystem-Based Management.

PubMed

Weijerman, Mariska; Fulton, Elizabeth A; Brainard, Russell E

2016-01-01

Ecosystem modelling is increasingly used to explore ecosystem-level effects of changing environmental conditions and management actions. For coral reefs there has been increasing interest in recent decades in the use of ecosystem models for evaluating the effects of fishing and the efficacy of marine protected areas. However, ecosystem models that integrate physical forcings, biogeochemical and ecological dynamics, and human induced perturbations are still underdeveloped. We applied an ecosystem model (Atlantis) to the coral reef ecosystem of Guam using a suite of management scenarios prioritized in consultation with local resource managers to review the effects of each scenario on performance measures related to the ecosystem, the reef-fish fishery (e.g., fish landings) and coral habitat. Comparing tradeoffs across the selected scenarios showed that each scenario performed best for at least one of the selected performance indicators. The integrated 'full regulation' scenario outperformed other scenarios with four out of the six performance metrics at the cost of reef-fish landings. This model application quantifies the socio-ecological costs and benefits of alternative management scenarios. When the effects of climate change were taken into account, several scenarios performed equally well, but none prevented a collapse in coral biomass over the next few decades assuming a business-as-usual greenhouse gas emissions scenario.

Management Strategy Evaluation Applied to Coral Reef Ecosystems in Support of Ecosystem-Based Management

PubMed Central

Weijerman, Mariska; Fulton, Elizabeth A.; Brainard, Russell E.

2016-01-01

Ecosystem modelling is increasingly used to explore ecosystem-level effects of changing environmental conditions and management actions. For coral reefs there has been increasing interest in recent decades in the use of ecosystem models for evaluating the effects of fishing and the efficacy of marine protected areas. However, ecosystem models that integrate physical forcings, biogeochemical and ecological dynamics, and human induced perturbations are still underdeveloped. We applied an ecosystem model (Atlantis) to the coral reef ecosystem of Guam using a suite of management scenarios prioritized in consultation with local resource managers to review the effects of each scenario on performance measures related to the ecosystem, the reef-fish fishery (e.g., fish landings) and coral habitat. Comparing tradeoffs across the selected scenarios showed that each scenario performed best for at least one of the selected performance indicators. The integrated ‘full regulation’ scenario outperformed other scenarios with four out of the six performance metrics at the cost of reef-fish landings. This model application quantifies the socio-ecological costs and benefits of alternative management scenarios. When the effects of climate change were taken into account, several scenarios performed equally well, but none prevented a collapse in coral biomass over the next few decades assuming a business-as-usual greenhouse gas emissions scenario. PMID:27023183

A bottom-up evolution of terrestrial ecosystem modeling theory, and ideas toward global vegetation modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Running, Steven W.

1992-01-01

A primary purpose of this review is to convey lessons learned in the development of a forest ecosystem modeling approach, from it origins in 1973 as a single-tree water balance model to the current regional applications. The second intent is to use this accumulated experience to offer ideas of how terrestrial ecosystem modeling can be taken to the global scale: earth systems modeling. A logic is suggested where mechanistic ecosystem models are not themselves operated globally, but rather are used to 'calibrate' much simplified models, primarily driven by remote sensing, that could be implemented in a semiautomated way globally, and in principle could interface with atmospheric general circulation models (GCM's).

Evaluating carbon fluxes of global forest ecosystems by using an individual tree-based model FORCCHN.

PubMed

Ma, Jianyong; Shugart, Herman H; Yan, Xiaodong; Cao, Cougui; Wu, Shuang; Fang, Jing

2017-05-15

The carbon budget of forest ecosystems, an important component of the terrestrial carbon cycle, needs to be accurately quantified and predicted by ecological models. As a preamble to apply the model to estimate global carbon uptake by forest ecosystems, we used the CO 2 flux measurements from 37 forest eddy-covariance sites to examine the individual tree-based FORCCHN model's performance globally. In these initial tests, the FORCCHN model simulated gross primary production (GPP), ecosystem respiration (ER) and net ecosystem production (NEP) with correlations of 0.72, 0.70 and 0.53, respectively, across all forest biomes. The model underestimated GPP and slightly overestimated ER across most of the eddy-covariance sites. An underestimation of NEP arose primarily from the lower GPP estimates. Model performance was better in capturing both the temporal changes and magnitude of carbon fluxes in deciduous broadleaf forest than in evergreen broadleaf forest, and it performed less well for sites in Mediterranean climate. We then applied the model to estimate the carbon fluxes of forest ecosystems on global scale over 1982-2011. This application of FORCCHN gave a total GPP of 59.41±5.67 and an ER of 57.21±5.32PgCyr -1 for global forest ecosystems during 1982-2011. The forest ecosystems over this same period contributed a large carbon storage, with total NEP being 2.20±0.64PgCyr -1 . These values are comparable to and reinforce estimates reported in other studies. This analysis highlights individual tree-based model FORCCHN could be used to evaluate carbon fluxes of forest ecosystems on global scale. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Application of a Lower Food Web Ecosystem Productivity Model to Investigate Population Dynamics of Invasive Species in Lake Michigan

EPA Science Inventory

A Lake Michigan Ecosystem Model (LM-Eco) that includes a detailed description of trophic levels and their interactions was developed for Lake Michigan. The LM-Eco model constitutes a first step toward a comprehensive Lake Michigan ecosystem productivity model to investigate ecosy...

Description of the General Equilibrium Model of Ecosystem Services (GEMES)

Treesearch

Travis Warziniack; David Finnoff; Jenny Apriesnig

2017-01-01

This paper serves as documentation for the General Equilibrium Model of Ecosystem Services (GEMES). GEMES is a regional computable general equilibrium model that is composed of values derived from natural capital and ecosystem services. It models households, producing sectors, and governments, linked to one another through commodity and factor markets. GEMES was...

Application of a Lower Food Web Ecosystem Productivity Model for Investigating Dynamics of the Invasive Species Bythortrephes longimanus in Lake Michigan

EPA Science Inventory

A Lake Michigan Ecosystem Model (LM-Eco) that includes a detailed description of trophic levels and their interactions was developed for Lake Michigan. The LM-Eco model constitutes a first step toward a comprehensive Lake Michigan ecosystem productivity model to investigate ecos...

Two takes on the ecosystem impacts of climate change and fishing: Comparing a size-based and a species-based ecosystem model in the central North Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woodworth-Jefcoats, Phoebe A.; Polovina, Jeffrey J.; Howell, Evan A.; Blanchard, Julia L.

2015-11-01

We compare two ecosystem model projections of 21st century climate change and fishing impacts in the central North Pacific. Both a species-based and a size-based ecosystem modeling approach are examined. While both models project a decline in biomass across all sizes in response to climate change and a decline in large fish biomass in response to increased fishing mortality, the models vary significantly in their handling of climate and fishing scenarios. For example, based on the same climate forcing the species-based model projects a 15% decline in catch by the end of the century while the size-based model projects a 30% decline. Disparities in the models' output highlight the limitations of each approach by showing the influence model structure can have on model output. The aspects of bottom-up change to which each model is most sensitive appear linked to model structure, as does the propagation of interannual variability through the food web and the relative impact of combined top-down and bottom-up change. Incorporating integrated size- and species-based ecosystem modeling approaches into future ensemble studies may help separate the influence of model structure from robust projections of ecosystem change.

Placing biodiversity in ecosystem models without getting lost in translation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Queirós, Ana M.; Bruggeman, Jorn; Stephens, Nicholas; Artioli, Yuri; Butenschön, Momme; Blackford, Jeremy C.; Widdicombe, Stephen; Allen, J. Icarus; Somerfield, Paul J.

2015-04-01

A key challenge to progressing our understanding of biodiversity's role in the sustenance of ecosystem function is the extrapolation of the results of two decades of dedicated empirical research to regional, global and future landscapes. Ecosystem models provide a platform for this progression, potentially offering a holistic view of ecosystems where, guided by the mechanistic understanding of processes and their connection to the environment and biota, large-scale questions can be investigated. While the benefits of depicting biodiversity in such models are widely recognized, its application is limited by difficulties in the transfer of knowledge from small process oriented ecology into macro-scale modelling. Here, we build on previous work, breaking down key challenges of that knowledge transfer into a tangible framework, highlighting successful strategies that both modelling and ecology communities have developed to better interact with one another. We use a benthic and a pelagic case-study to illustrate how aspects of the links between biodiversity and ecosystem process have been depicted in marine ecosystem models (ERSEM and MIRO), from data, to conceptualisation and model development. We hope that this framework may help future interactions between biodiversity researchers and model developers by highlighting concrete solutions to common problems, and in this way contribute to the advance of the mechanistic understanding of the role of biodiversity in marine (and terrestrial) ecosystems.

Ecosystem functioning is enveloped by hydrometeorological variability.

PubMed

Pappas, Christoforos; Mahecha, Miguel D; Frank, David C; Babst, Flurin; Koutsoyiannis, Demetris

2017-09-01

Terrestrial ecosystem processes, and the associated vegetation carbon dynamics, respond differently to hydrometeorological variability across timescales, and so does our scientific understanding of the underlying mechanisms. Long-term variability of the terrestrial carbon cycle is not yet well constrained and the resulting climate-biosphere feedbacks are highly uncertain. Here we present a comprehensive overview of hydrometeorological and ecosystem variability from hourly to decadal timescales integrating multiple in situ and remote-sensing datasets characterizing extra-tropical forest sites. We find that ecosystem variability at all sites is confined within a hydrometeorological envelope across sites and timescales. Furthermore, ecosystem variability demonstrates long-term persistence, highlighting ecological memory and slow ecosystem recovery rates after disturbances. However, simulation results with state-of-the-art process-based models do not reflect this long-term persistent behaviour in ecosystem functioning. Accordingly, we develop a cross-time-scale stochastic framework that captures hydrometeorological and ecosystem variability. Our analysis offers a perspective for terrestrial ecosystem modelling and paves the way for new model-data integration opportunities in Earth system sciences.

Linking an ecosystem model and a landscape model to study forest species response to climate warming

Treesearch

Hong S. He; David J. Mladenoff; Thomas R. Crow

1999-01-01

No single model can address forest change from single tree to regional scales. We discuss a framework linking an ecosystem process model {LINKAGES) with a spatial landscape model (LANDIS) to examine forest species responses to climate warming for a large, heterogeneous landscape in northern Wisconsin, USA. Individual species response at the ecosystem scale was...

Modelling Southern Ocean ecosystems: krill, the food-web, and the impacts of harvesting.

PubMed

Hill, S L; Murphy, E J; Reid, K; Trathan, P N; Constable, A J

2006-11-01

The ecosystem approach to fisheries recognises the interdependence between harvested species and other ecosystem components. It aims to account for the propagation of the effects of harvesting through the food-web. The formulation and evaluation of ecosystem-based management strategies requires reliable models of ecosystem dynamics to predict these effects. The krill-based system in the Southern Ocean was the focus of some of the earliest models exploring such effects. It is also a suitable example for the development of models to support the ecosystem approach to fisheries because it has a relatively simple food-web structure and progress has been made in developing models of the key species and interactions, some of which has been motivated by the need to develop ecosystem-based management. Antarctic krill, Euphausia superba, is the main target species for the fishery and the main prey of many top predators. It is therefore critical to capture the processes affecting the dynamics and distribution of krill in ecosystem dynamics models. These processes include environmental influences on recruitment and the spatially variable influence of advection. Models must also capture the interactions between krill and its consumers, which are mediated by the spatial structure of the environment. Various models have explored predator-prey population dynamics with simplistic representations of these interactions, while others have focused on specific details of the interactions. There is now a pressing need to develop plausible and practical models of ecosystem dynamics that link processes occurring at these different scales. Many studies have highlighted uncertainties in our understanding of the system, which indicates future priorities in terms of both data collection and developing methods to evaluate the effects of these uncertainties on model predictions. We propose a modelling approach that focuses on harvested species and their monitored consumers and that evaluates model uncertainty by using alternative structures and functional forms in a Monte Carlo framework.

Asymmetric warming significantly affects net primary production, but not ecosystem carbon balances of forest and grassland ecosystems in northern China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Su, Hongxin; Feng, Jinchao; Axmacher, Jan C.; Sang, Weiguo

2015-03-01

We combine the process-based ecosystem model (Biome-BGC) with climate change-scenarios based on both RegCM3 model outputs and historic observed trends to quantify differential effects of symmetric and asymmetric warming on ecosystem net primary productivity (NPP), heterotrophic respiration (Rh) and net ecosystem productivity (NEP) of six ecosystem types representing different climatic zones of northern China. Analysis of covariance shows that NPP is significant greater at most ecosystems under the various environmental change scenarios once temperature asymmetries are taken into consideration. However, these differences do not lead to significant differences in NEP, which indicates that asymmetry in climate change does not result in significant alterations of the overall carbon balance in the dominating forest or grassland ecosystems. Overall, NPP, Rh and NEP are regulated by highly interrelated effects of increases in temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentrations and precipitation changes, while the magnitude of these effects strongly varies across the six sites. Further studies underpinned by suitable experiments are nonetheless required to further improve the performance of ecosystem models and confirm the validity of these model predictions. This is crucial for a sound understanding of the mechanisms controlling the variability in asymmetric warming effects on ecosystem structure and functioning.

Asymmetric warming significantly affects net primary production, but not ecosystem carbon balances of forest and grassland ecosystems in northern China.

PubMed

Su, Hongxin; Feng, Jinchao; Axmacher, Jan C; Sang, Weiguo

2015-03-13

We combine the process-based ecosystem model (Biome-BGC) with climate change-scenarios based on both RegCM3 model outputs and historic observed trends to quantify differential effects of symmetric and asymmetric warming on ecosystem net primary productivity (NPP), heterotrophic respiration (Rh) and net ecosystem productivity (NEP) of six ecosystem types representing different climatic zones of northern China. Analysis of covariance shows that NPP is significant greater at most ecosystems under the various environmental change scenarios once temperature asymmetries are taken into consideration. However, these differences do not lead to significant differences in NEP, which indicates that asymmetry in climate change does not result in significant alterations of the overall carbon balance in the dominating forest or grassland ecosystems. Overall, NPP, Rh and NEP are regulated by highly interrelated effects of increases in temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentrations and precipitation changes, while the magnitude of these effects strongly varies across the six sites. Further studies underpinned by suitable experiments are nonetheless required to further improve the performance of ecosystem models and confirm the validity of these model predictions. This is crucial for a sound understanding of the mechanisms controlling the variability in asymmetric warming effects on ecosystem structure and functioning.

Asymmetric warming significantly affects net primary production, but not ecosystem carbon balances of forest and grassland ecosystems in northern China

PubMed Central

Su, Hongxin; Feng, Jinchao; Axmacher, Jan C.; Sang, Weiguo

2015-01-01

We combine the process-based ecosystem model (Biome-BGC) with climate change-scenarios based on both RegCM3 model outputs and historic observed trends to quantify differential effects of symmetric and asymmetric warming on ecosystem net primary productivity (NPP), heterotrophic respiration (Rh) and net ecosystem productivity (NEP) of six ecosystem types representing different climatic zones of northern China. Analysis of covariance shows that NPP is significant greater at most ecosystems under the various environmental change scenarios once temperature asymmetries are taken into consideration. However, these differences do not lead to significant differences in NEP, which indicates that asymmetry in climate change does not result in significant alterations of the overall carbon balance in the dominating forest or grassland ecosystems. Overall, NPP, Rh and NEP are regulated by highly interrelated effects of increases in temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentrations and precipitation changes, while the magnitude of these effects strongly varies across the six sites. Further studies underpinned by suitable experiments are nonetheless required to further improve the performance of ecosystem models and confirm the validity of these model predictions. This is crucial for a sound understanding of the mechanisms controlling the variability in asymmetric warming effects on ecosystem structure and functioning. PMID:25766381

Spatial dynamics of ecosystem service flows: a comprehensive approach to quantifying actual services

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bagstad, Kenneth J.; Johnson, Gary W.; Voigt, Brian; Villa, Ferdinando

2013-01-01

Recent ecosystem services research has highlighted the importance of spatial connectivity between ecosystems and their beneficiaries. Despite this need, a systematic approach to ecosystem service flow quantification has not yet emerged. In this article, we present such an approach, which we formalize as a class of agent-based models termed “Service Path Attribution Networks” (SPANs). These models, developed as part of the Artificial Intelligence for Ecosystem Services (ARIES) project, expand on ecosystem services classification terminology introduced by other authors. Conceptual elements needed to support flow modeling include a service's rivalness, its flow routing type (e.g., through hydrologic or transportation networks, lines of sight, or other approaches), and whether the benefit is supplied by an ecosystem's provision of a beneficial flow to people or by absorption of a detrimental flow before it reaches them. We describe our implementation of the SPAN framework for five ecosystem services and discuss how to generalize the approach to additional services. SPAN model outputs include maps of ecosystem service provision, use, depletion, and flows under theoretical, possible, actual, inaccessible, and blocked conditions. We highlight how these different ecosystem service flow maps could be used to support various types of decision making for conservation and resource management planning.

Ecosystem oceanography for global change in fisheries.

PubMed

Cury, Philippe Maurice; Shin, Yunne-Jai; Planque, Benjamin; Durant, Joël Marcel; Fromentin, Jean-Marc; Kramer-Schadt, Stephanie; Stenseth, Nils Christian; Travers, Morgane; Grimm, Volker

2008-06-01

Overexploitation and climate change are increasingly causing unanticipated changes in marine ecosystems, such as higher variability in fish recruitment and shifts in species dominance. An ecosystem-based approach to fisheries attempts to address these effects by integrating populations, food webs and fish habitats at different scales. Ecosystem models represent indispensable tools to achieve this objective. However, a balanced research strategy is needed to avoid overly complex models. Ecosystem oceanography represents such a balanced strategy that relates ecosystem components and their interactions to climate change and exploitation. It aims at developing realistic and robust models at different levels of organisation and addressing specific questions in a global change context while systematically exploring the ever-increasing amount of biological and environmental data.

Predictors of Drought Recovery across Forest Ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anderegg, W.

2016-12-01

The impacts of climate extremes on terrestrial ecosystems are poorly understood but central for predicting carbon cycle feedbacks to climate change. Coupled climate-carbon cycle models typically assume that vegetation recovery from extreme drought is immediate and complete, which conflicts with basic plant physiological understanding. Here, we discuss what we have learned about forest ecosystem recovery from extreme drought across spatial and temporal scales, drawing on inference from tree rings, eddy covariance data, large scale gross primary productivity products, and ecosystem models. In tree rings, we find pervasive and substantial "legacy effects" of reduced growth and incomplete recovery for 1-4 years after severe drought, and that legacy effects are most prevalent in dry ecosystems, Pinaceae, and species with low hydraulic safety margins. At larger scales, we see relatively rapid recovery of ecosystem fluxes, with strong influences of ecosystem productivity and diversity and longer recovery periods in high latidue forests. In contrast, no or limited legacy effects are simulated in current climate-vegetation models after drought, and we highlight some of the key missing mechanisms in dynamic vegetation models. Our results reveal hysteresis in forest ecosystem carbon cycling and delayed recovery from climate extremes and help advance a predictive understanding of ecosystem recovery.

How models can support ecosystem-based management of coral reefs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weijerman, Mariska; Fulton, Elizabeth A.; Janssen, Annette B. G.; Kuiper, Jan J.; Leemans, Rik; Robson, Barbara J.; van de Leemput, Ingrid A.; Mooij, Wolf M.

2015-11-01

Despite the importance of coral reef ecosystems to the social and economic welfare of coastal communities, the condition of these marine ecosystems have generally degraded over the past decades. With an increased knowledge of coral reef ecosystem processes and a rise in computer power, dynamic models are useful tools in assessing the synergistic effects of local and global stressors on ecosystem functions. We review representative approaches for dynamically modeling coral reef ecosystems and categorize them as minimal, intermediate and complex models. The categorization was based on the leading principle for model development and their level of realism and process detail. This review aims to improve the knowledge of concurrent approaches in coral reef ecosystem modeling and highlights the importance of choosing an appropriate approach based on the type of question(s) to be answered. We contend that minimal and intermediate models are generally valuable tools to assess the response of key states to main stressors and, hence, contribute to understanding ecological surprises. As has been shown in freshwater resources management, insight into these conceptual relations profoundly influences how natural resource managers perceive their systems and how they manage ecosystem recovery. We argue that adaptive resource management requires integrated thinking and decision support, which demands a diversity of modeling approaches. Integration can be achieved through complimentary use of models or through integrated models that systemically combine all relevant aspects in one model. Such whole-of-system models can be useful tools for quantitatively evaluating scenarios. These models allow an assessment of the interactive effects of multiple stressors on various, potentially conflicting, management objectives. All models simplify reality and, as such, have their weaknesses. While minimal models lack multidimensionality, system models are likely difficult to interpret as they require many efforts to decipher the numerous interactions and feedback loops. Given the breadth of questions to be tackled when dealing with coral reefs, the best practice approach uses multiple model types and thus benefits from the strength of different models types.

In praise of mechanistically-rich models

USGS Publications Warehouse

DeAngelis, Donald L.; Mooij, Wolf M.; Canham, Charles D.; Cole, Jonathan J.; Lauenroth, William K.

2003-01-01

The book opens with an overview of the status and role of modeling in ecosystem science, including perspectives on the long-running debate over the appropriate level of complexity in models. This is followed by eight chapters that address the critical issue of evaluating ecosystem models, including methods of addressing uncertainty. Next come several case studies of the role of models in environmental policy and management. A section on the future of modeling in ecosystem science focuses on increasing the use of modeling in undergraduate education and the modeling skills of professionals within the field. The benefits and limitations of predictive (versus observational) models are also considered in detail. Written by stellar contributors, this book grants access to the state of the art and science of ecosystem modeling.

Available fuel dynamics in nine contrasting forest ecosystems in North America

Treesearch

Soung-Ryoul Ryu; Jiquan Chen; Thomas R. Crow; Sari C. Saunders

2004-01-01

Available fuel and its dynamics, both of which affect fire behavior in forest ecosystems, are direct products of ecosystem production, decomposition, and disturbances. Using published ecosystem models and equations, we developed a simulation model to evaluate the effects of dynamics of aboveground net primary production (ANPP), carbon allocation, residual slash,...

Modeling an aquatic ecosystem: application of an evolutionary algorithm with genetic doping to reduce prediction uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Friedel, Michael; Buscema, Massimo

2016-04-01

Aquatic ecosystem models can potentially be used to understand the influence of stresses on catchment resource quality. Given that catchment responses are functions of natural and anthropogenic stresses reflected in sparse and spatiotemporal biological, physical, and chemical measurements, an ecosystem is difficult to model using statistical or numerical methods. We propose an artificial adaptive systems approach to model ecosystems. First, an unsupervised machine-learning (ML) network is trained using the set of available sparse and disparate data variables. Second, an evolutionary algorithm with genetic doping is applied to reduce the number of ecosystem variables to an optimal set. Third, the optimal set of ecosystem variables is used to retrain the ML network. Fourth, a stochastic cross-validation approach is applied to quantify and compare the nonlinear uncertainty in selected predictions of the original and reduced models. Results are presented for aquatic ecosystems (tens of thousands of square kilometers) undergoing landscape change in the USA: Upper Illinois River Basin and Central Colorado Assessment Project Area, and Southland region, NZ.

Dynamical implications of bi-directional resource exchange within a meta-ecosystem.

PubMed

Messan, Marisabel Rodriguez; Kopp, Darin; Allen, Daniel C; Kang, Yun

2018-05-05

The exchange of resources across ecosystem boundaries can have large impacts on ecosystem structures and functions at local and regional scales. In this article, we develop a simple model to investigate dynamical implications of bi-directional resource exchanges between two local ecosystems in a meta-ecosystem framework. In our model, we assume that (1) Each local ecosystem acts as both a resource donor and recipient, such that one ecosystem donating resources to another results in a cost to the donating system and a benefit to the recipient; and (2) The costs and benefits of the bi-directional resource exchange between two ecosystems are correlated in a nonlinear fashion. Our model could apply to the resource interactions between terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems that are supported by the literature. Our theoretical results show that bi-directional resource exchange between two ecosystems can indeed generate complicated dynamical outcomes, including the coupled ecosystems having amensalistic, antagonistic, competitive, or mutualistic interactions, with multiple alternative stable states depending on the relative costs and benefits. In addition, if the relative cost for resource exchange for an ecosystem is decreased or the relative benefit for resource exchange for an ecosystem is increased, the production of that ecosystem would increase; however, depending on the local environment, the production of the other ecosystem may increase or decrease. We expect that our work, by evaluating the potential outcomes of resource exchange theoretically, can facilitate empirical evaluations and advance the understanding of spatial ecosystem ecology where resource exchanges occur in varied ecosystems through a complicated network. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Prototyping an online wetland ecosystem services model using open model sharing standards

USGS Publications Warehouse

Feng, M.; Liu, S.; Euliss, N.H.; Young, Caitlin; Mushet, D.M.

2011-01-01

Great interest currently exists for developing ecosystem models to forecast how ecosystem services may change under alternative land use and climate futures. Ecosystem services are diverse and include supporting services or functions (e.g., primary production, nutrient cycling), provisioning services (e.g., wildlife, groundwater), regulating services (e.g., water purification, floodwater retention), and even cultural services (e.g., ecotourism, cultural heritage). Hence, the knowledge base necessary to quantify ecosystem services is broad and derived from many diverse scientific disciplines. Building the required interdisciplinary models is especially challenging as modelers from different locations and times may develop the disciplinary models needed for ecosystem simulations, and these models must be identified and made accessible to the interdisciplinary simulation. Additional difficulties include inconsistent data structures, formats, and metadata required by geospatial models as well as limitations on computing, storage, and connectivity. Traditional standalone and closed network systems cannot fully support sharing and integrating interdisciplinary geospatial models from variant sources. To address this need, we developed an approach to openly share and access geospatial computational models using distributed Geographic Information System (GIS) techniques and open geospatial standards. We included a means to share computational models compliant with Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) Web Processing Services (WPS) standard to ensure modelers have an efficient and simplified means to publish new models. To demonstrate our approach, we developed five disciplinary models that can be integrated and shared to simulate a few of the ecosystem services (e.g., water storage, waterfowl breeding) that are provided by wetlands in the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of North America.

Northern Forest Ecosystem Dynamics Using Coupled Models and Remote Sensing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ranson, K. J.; Sun, G.; Knox, R. G.; Levine, E. R.; Weishampel, J. F.; Fifer, S. T.

1999-01-01

Forest ecosystem dynamics modeling, remote sensing data analysis, and a geographical information system (GIS) were used together to determine the possible growth and development of a northern forest in Maine, USA. Field measurements and airborne synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data were used to produce maps of forest cover type and above ground biomass. These forest attribute maps, along with a conventional soils map, were used to identify the initial conditions for forest ecosystem model simulations. Using this information along with ecosystem model results enabled the development of predictive maps of forest development. The results obtained were consistent with observed forest conditions and expected successional trajectories. The study demonstrated that ecosystem models might be used in a spatial context when parameterized and used with georeferenced data sets.

Modelling impacts of second generation bioenergy production on Ecosystem Services in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Henner, Dagmar; Smith, Pete; Davies, Christian; McNamara, Niall

2016-04-01

Bioenergy crops are an important source of renewable energy and are a possible mechanism to mitigate global climate warming, by replacing fossil fuel energy with higher greenhouse gas emissions. There is, however, uncertainty about the impacts of the growth of bioenergy crops on ecosystem services. This uncertainty is further enhanced by the unpredictable climate change currently going on. The goal of this project is to develop a comprehensive model that covers high impact, policy relevant ecosystem services at a Continental scale including biodiversity and pollination, water and air security, erosion control and soil security, GHG emissions, soil C and cultural services like tourism value. The technical distribution potential and likely yield of second generation energy crops, such as Miscanthus, Short Rotation Coppice (SRC) with willow, poplar, eucalyptus and other broadleaf species and Short Rotation Forestry (SRF), is currently being modelled using ECOSSE, DayCent, SalixFor and MiscanFor, and ecosystem models will be used to examine the impacts of these crops on ecosystem services. The project builds on models of energy crop production, biodiversity, soil impacts, greenhouse gas emissions and other ecosystem services, and on work undertaken in the UK on the ETI-funded ELUM project (www.elum.ac.uk). In addition, methods like water footprint tools, tourism value maps and ecosystem valuation tools and models (e.g. InVest, TEEB database, GREET LCA Model, World Business Council for Sustainable Development corporate ecosystem valuation, Millennium Ecosystem Assessment and the Ecosystem Services Framework) will be utilised. Research will focus on optimisation of land use change feedbacks on above named ecosystem services, impact on food security, land management practices and impacts from climate change. We will present results for GHG emissions and soil organic carbon change after different land use change scenarios (e.g. arable to Miscanthus, forest to SRF), and with different climate warming scenarios. Further, we will show modelled yield maps for Miscanthus, Salix and Poplar in Europe and will present constraint/opportunity maps for Europe based on yield modelled and other factors e.g. total economic value, technical potential, current land use, trade off and synergies, and so on. All this will be complemented by the presentation of a matrix including the factors and ecosystem services influenced by land use change to bioenergy crop production under different climate change scenarios.

More than Anecdotes: Fishers’ Ecological Knowledge Can Fill Gaps for Ecosystem Modeling

PubMed Central

Bevilacqua, Ana Helena V.; Carvalho, Adriana R.; Angelini, Ronaldo; Christensen, Villy

2016-01-01

Background Ecosystem modeling applied to fisheries remains hampered by a lack of local information. Fishers’ knowledge could fill this gap, improving participation in and the management of fisheries. Methodology The same fishing area was modeled using two approaches: based on fishers’ knowledge and based on scientific information. For the former, the data was collected by interviews through the Delphi methodology, and for the latter, the data was gathered from the literature. Agreement between the attributes generated by the fishers’ knowledge model and scientific model is discussed and explored, aiming to improve data availability, the ecosystem model, and fisheries management. Principal Findings The ecosystem attributes produced from the fishers’ knowledge model were consistent with the ecosystem attributes produced by the scientific model, and elaborated using only the scientific data from literature. Conclusions/Significance This study provides evidence that fishers’ knowledge may suitably complement scientific data, and may improve the modeling tools for the research and management of fisheries. PMID:27196131

Transport and fate of radionuclides in aquatic environments--the use of ecosystem modelling for exposure assessments of nuclear facilities.

PubMed

Kumblad, L; Kautsky, U; Naeslund, B

2006-01-01

In safety assessments of nuclear facilities, a wide range of radioactive isotopes and their potential hazard to a large assortment of organisms and ecosystem types over long time scales need to be considered. Models used for these purposes have typically employed approaches based on generic reference organisms, stylised environments and transfer functions for biological uptake exclusively based on bioconcentration factors (BCFs). These models are of non-mechanistic nature and involve no understanding of uptake and transport processes in the environment, which is a severe limitation when assessing real ecosystems. In this paper, ecosystem models are suggested as a method to include site-specific data and to facilitate the modelling of dynamic systems. An aquatic ecosystem model for the environmental transport of radionuclides is presented and discussed. With this model, driven and constrained by site-specific carbon dynamics and three radionuclide specific mechanisms: (i) radionuclide uptake by plants, (ii) excretion by animals, and (iii) adsorption to organic surfaces, it was possible to estimate the radionuclide concentrations in all components of the modelled ecosystem with only two radionuclide specific input parameters (BCF for plants and Kd). The importance of radionuclide specific mechanisms for the exposure to organisms was examined, and probabilistic and sensitivity analyses to assess the uncertainties related to ecosystem input parameters were performed. Verification of the model suggests that this model produces analogous results to empirically derived data for more than 20 different radionuclides.

Linking biodiversity to ecosystem function: Implications for conservation ecology

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schwartz, M.W.; Brigham, C.A.; Hoeksema, J.D.; Lyons, K.G.; Mills, M.H.; van Mantgem, P.

2000-01-01

We evaluate the empirical and theoretical support for the hypothesis that a large proportion of native species richness is required to maximize ecosystem stability and sustain function. This assessment is important for conservation strategies because sustenance of ecosystem functions has been used as an argument for the conservation of species. If ecosystem functions are sustained at relatively low species richness, then arguing for the conservation of ecosystem function, no matter how important in its own right, does not strongly argue for the conservation of species. Additionally, for this to be a strong conservation argument the link between species diversity and ecosystem functions of value to the human community must be clear. We review the empirical literature to quantify the support for two hypotheses: (1) species richness is positively correlated with ecosystem function, and (2) ecosystem functions do not saturate at low species richness relative to the observed or experimental diversity. Few empirical studies demonstrate improved function at high levels of species richness. Second, we analyze recent theoretical models in order to estimate the level of species richness required to maintain ecosystem function. Again we find that, within a single trophic level, most mathematical models predict saturation of ecosystem function at a low proportion of local species richness. We also analyze a theoretical model linking species number to ecosystem stability. This model predicts that species richness beyond the first few species does not typically increase ecosystem stability. One reason that high species richness may not contribute significantly to function or stability is that most communities are characterized by strong dominance such that a few species provide the vast majority of the community biomass. Rapid turnover of species may rescue the concept that diversity leads to maximum function and stability. The role of turnover in ecosystem function and stability has not been investigated. Despite the recent rush to embrace the linkage between biodiversity and ecosystem function, we find little support for the hypothesis that there is a strong dependence of ecosystem function on the full complement of diversity within sites. Given this observation, the conservation community should take a cautious view of endorsing this linkage as a model to promote conservation goals.

Modeling the impact of watershed management policies on marine ecosystem services with application to Hood Canal, WA, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sutherland, D. A.; Kim, C.; Marsik, M.; Spiridonov, G.; Toft, J.; Ruckelshaus, M.; Guerry, A.; Plummer, M.

2011-12-01

Humans obtain numerous benefits from marine ecosystems, including fish to eat; mitigation of storm damage; nutrient and water cycling and primary production; and cultural, aesthetic and recreational values. However, managing these benefits, or ecosystem services, in the marine world relies on an integrated approach that accounts for both marine and watershed activities. Here we present the results of a set of simple, physically-based, and spatially-explicit models that quantify the effects of terrestrial activities on marine ecosystem services. Specifically, we model the circulation and water quality of Hood Canal, WA, USA, a fjord system in Puget Sound where multiple human uses of the nearshore ecosystem (e.g., shellfish aquaculture, recreational Dungeness crab and shellfish harvest) can be compromised when water quality is poor (e.g., hypoxia, excessive non-point source pollution). Linked to the estuarine water quality model is a terrestrial hydrology model that simulates streamflow and nutrient loading, so land cover and climate changes in watersheds can be reflected in the marine environment. In addition, a shellfish aquaculture model is linked to the water quality model to test the sensitivity of the ecosystem service and its value to both terrestrial and marine activities. The modeling framework is general and will be publicly available, allowing easy comparisons of watershed impacts on marine ecosystem services across multiple scales and regions.

Diversity, Stability, and Reproducibility in Stochastically Assembled Microbial Ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goyal, Akshit; Maslov, Sergei

2018-04-01

Microbial ecosystems are remarkably diverse, stable, and usually consist of a mixture of core and peripheral species. Here we propose a conceptual model exhibiting all these emergent properties in quantitative agreement with real ecosystem data, specifically species abundance and prevalence distributions. Resource competition and metabolic commensalism drive the stochastic ecosystem assembly in our model. We demonstrate that even when supplied with just one resource, ecosystems can exhibit high diversity, increasing stability, and partial reproducibility between samples.

Emergent Global Patterns of Ecosystem Structure and Function from a Mechanistic General Ecosystem Model

PubMed Central

Emmott, Stephen; Hutton, Jon; Lyutsarev, Vassily; Smith, Matthew J.; Scharlemann, Jörn P. W.; Purves, Drew W.

2014-01-01

Anthropogenic activities are causing widespread degradation of ecosystems worldwide, threatening the ecosystem services upon which all human life depends. Improved understanding of this degradation is urgently needed to improve avoidance and mitigation measures. One tool to assist these efforts is predictive models of ecosystem structure and function that are mechanistic: based on fundamental ecological principles. Here we present the first mechanistic General Ecosystem Model (GEM) of ecosystem structure and function that is both global and applies in all terrestrial and marine environments. Functional forms and parameter values were derived from the theoretical and empirical literature where possible. Simulations of the fate of all organisms with body masses between 10 µg and 150,000 kg (a range of 14 orders of magnitude) across the globe led to emergent properties at individual (e.g., growth rate), community (e.g., biomass turnover rates), ecosystem (e.g., trophic pyramids), and macroecological scales (e.g., global patterns of trophic structure) that are in general agreement with current data and theory. These properties emerged from our encoding of the biology of, and interactions among, individual organisms without any direct constraints on the properties themselves. Our results indicate that ecologists have gathered sufficient information to begin to build realistic, global, and mechanistic models of ecosystems, capable of predicting a diverse range of ecosystem properties and their response to human pressures. PMID:24756001

Emergent global patterns of ecosystem structure and function from a mechanistic general ecosystem model.

PubMed

Harfoot, Michael B J; Newbold, Tim; Tittensor, Derek P; Emmott, Stephen; Hutton, Jon; Lyutsarev, Vassily; Smith, Matthew J; Scharlemann, Jörn P W; Purves, Drew W

2014-04-01

Anthropogenic activities are causing widespread degradation of ecosystems worldwide, threatening the ecosystem services upon which all human life depends. Improved understanding of this degradation is urgently needed to improve avoidance and mitigation measures. One tool to assist these efforts is predictive models of ecosystem structure and function that are mechanistic: based on fundamental ecological principles. Here we present the first mechanistic General Ecosystem Model (GEM) of ecosystem structure and function that is both global and applies in all terrestrial and marine environments. Functional forms and parameter values were derived from the theoretical and empirical literature where possible. Simulations of the fate of all organisms with body masses between 10 µg and 150,000 kg (a range of 14 orders of magnitude) across the globe led to emergent properties at individual (e.g., growth rate), community (e.g., biomass turnover rates), ecosystem (e.g., trophic pyramids), and macroecological scales (e.g., global patterns of trophic structure) that are in general agreement with current data and theory. These properties emerged from our encoding of the biology of, and interactions among, individual organisms without any direct constraints on the properties themselves. Our results indicate that ecologists have gathered sufficient information to begin to build realistic, global, and mechanistic models of ecosystems, capable of predicting a diverse range of ecosystem properties and their response to human pressures.

Adventures in holistic ecosystem modelling: the cumberland basin ecosystem model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gordon, D. C.; Keizer, P. D.; Daborn, G. R.; Schwinghamer, P.; Silvert, W. L.

A holistic ecosystem model has been developed for the Cumberland Basin, a turbid macrotidal estuary at the head of Canada's Bay of Fundy. The model was constructed as a group exercise involving several dozen scientists. Philosophy of approach and methods were patterned after the BOEDE Ems-Dollard modelling project. The model is one-dimensional, has 3 compartments and 3 boundaries, and is composed of 3 separate submodels (physical, pelagic and benthic). The 28 biological state variables cover the complete estuarine ecosystem and represent broad functional groups of organisms based on trophic relationships. Although still under development and not yet validated, the model has been verified and has reached the stage where most state variables provide reasonable output. The modelling process has stimulated interdisciplinary discussion, identified important data gaps and produced a quantitative tool which can be used to examine ecological hypotheses and determine critical environmental processes. As a result, Canadian scientists have a much better understanding of the Cumberland Basin ecosystem and are better able to provide competent advice on environmental management.

Quantification of terrestrial ecosystem carbon dynamics in the conterminous United States combining a process-based biogeochemical model and MODIS and AmeriFlux data

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Satellite remote sensing provides continuous temporal and spatial information of terrestrial ecosystems. Using these remote sensing data and eddy flux measurements and biogeochemical models, such as the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM), should provide a more adequate quantification of carbon dynami...

From Bacteria to Whales: Using Functional Size Spectra to Model Marine Ecosystems.

PubMed

Blanchard, Julia L; Heneghan, Ryan F; Everett, Jason D; Trebilco, Rowan; Richardson, Anthony J

2017-03-01

Size-based ecosystem modeling is emerging as a powerful way to assess ecosystem-level impacts of human- and environment-driven changes from individual-level processes. These models have evolved as mechanistic explanations for observed regular patterns of abundance across the marine size spectrum hypothesized to hold from bacteria to whales. Fifty years since the first size spectrum measurements, we ask how far have we come? Although recent modeling studies capture an impressive range of sizes, complexity, and real-world applications, ecosystem coverage is still only partial. We describe how this can be overcome by unifying functional traits with size spectra (which we call functional size spectra) and highlight the key knowledge gaps that need to be filled to model ecosystems from bacteria to whales. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Linking water quality and quantity in environmental flow assessment in deteriorated ecosystems: a food web view.

PubMed

Chen, He; Ma, Lekuan; Guo, Wei; Yang, Ying; Guo, Tong; Feng, Cheng

2013-01-01

Most rivers worldwide are highly regulated by anthropogenic activities through flow regulation and water pollution. Environmental flow regulation is used to reduce the effects of anthropogenic activities on aquatic ecosystems. Formulating flow alteration-ecological response relationships is a key factor in environmental flow assessment. Traditional environmental flow models are characterized by natural relationships between flow regimes and ecosystem factors. However, food webs are often altered from natural states, which disturb environmental flow assessment in such ecosystems. In ecosystems deteriorated by heavy anthropogenic activities, the effects of environmental flow regulation on species are difficult to assess with current modeling approaches. Environmental flow management compels the development of tools that link flow regimes and food webs in an ecosystem. Food web approaches are more suitable for the task because they are more adaptive for disordered multiple species in a food web deteriorated by anthropogenic activities. This paper presents a global method of environmental flow assessment in deteriorated aquatic ecosystems. Linkages between flow regimes and food web dynamics are modeled by incorporating multiple species into an ecosystem to explore ecosystem-based environmental flow management. The approach allows scientists and water resources managers to analyze environmental flows in deteriorated ecosystems in an ecosystem-based way.

[Structure and function of Fenshuijiang Reservoir ecosystem based on the analysis with Ecopath model].

PubMed

Wu, Zhen; Jia, Pei-Qiao; Hu, Zhong-Jun; Chen, Li-Qiao; Gu, Zhi-Min; Liu, Qi-Gen

2012-03-01

Based on the 2008-2009 survey data of fishery resources and eco-environment of Fenshuijiang Reservoir, a mass balance model for the Reservoir ecosystem was constructed by Ecopath with Ecosim software. The model was composed of 14 functional groups, including silver carp, bighead carp, Hemibarbus maculates, Cutler alburnus, Microlepis and other fishes, Oligochaeta, aquatic insect, zooplankton, phytoplankton, and organic detritus, etc. , being able to better simulate Fenshuijiang Reservoir ecosystem. In this ecosystem, there were five trophic levels (TLs), and the nutrient flow mainly occurred in the first three TLs. Grazing and detritus food chains were the main energy flows in the ecosystem, but the food web was simpler and susceptible to be disturbed by outer environment. The transfer efficiency at lower TLs was relatively low, indicating that the ecosystem had a lower capability in energy utilization, and the excessive stock of nutrients in the ecosystem could lead to eutrophication. The lower connectance index, system omnivory index, Finn' s cycled index, and Finn's mean path length demonstrated that the ecosystem was unstable, while the high ecosystem property indices such as Pp/R and Pp/B showed that the ecosystem was immature and highly productive. It was suggested that Fenshuijiang Reservoir was still a developing new reservoir ecosystem, with a very short history and comparatively high primary productivity.

An ecosystem model of an exploited southern Mediterranean shelf region (Gulf of Gabes, Tunisia) and a comparison with other Mediterranean ecosystem model properties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hattab, Tarek; Ben Rais Lasram, Frida; Albouy, Camille; Romdhane, Mohamed Salah; Jarboui, Othman; Halouani, Ghassen; Cury, Philippe; Le Loc'h, François

2013-12-01

In this paper, we describe an exploited continental shelf ecosystem (Gulf of Gabes) in the southern Mediterranean Sea using an Ecopath mass-balance model. This allowed us to determine the structure and functioning of this ecosystem and assess the impacts of fishing upon it. The model represents the average state of the ecosystem between 2000 and 2005. It includes 41 functional groups, which encompass the entire trophic spectrum from phytoplankton to higher trophic levels (e.g., fishes, birds, and mammals), and also considers the fishing activities in the area (five fleets). Model results highlight an important bentho-pelagic coupling in the system due to the links between plankton and benthic invertebrates through detritus. A comparison of this model with those developed for other continental shelf regions in the Mediterranean (i.e., the southern Catalan, the northern-central Adriatic, and the northern Aegean Seas) emphasizes similar patterns in their trophic functioning. Low and medium trophic levels (i.e., zooplankton, benthic molluscs, and polychaetes) and sharks were identified as playing key ecosystem roles and were classified as keystone groups. An analysis of ecosystem attributes indicated that the Gulf of Gabes is the least mature (i.e., in the earliest stages of ecosystem development) of the four ecosystems that were compared and it is suggested that this is due, at least in part, to the impacts of fishing. Bottom trawling was identified as having the widest-ranging impacts across the different functional groups and the largest impacts on some commercially-targeted demersal fish species. Several exploitation indices highlighted that the Gulf of Gabes ecosystem is highly exploited, a finding which is supported by stock assessment outcomes. This suggests that it is unlikely that the gulf can be fished at sustainable levels, a situation which is similar to other marine ecosystems in the Mediterranean Sea.

Testing a land model in ecosystem functional space via a comparison of observed and modeled ecosystem flux responses to precipitation regimes and associated stresses in a Central U.S. forest: Test Model in Ecosystem Functional Space

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gu, Lianhong; Pallardy, Stephen G.; Yang, Bai

Testing complex land surface models has often proceeded by asking the question: does the model prediction agree with the observation? This approach has yet led to high-performance terrestrial models that meet the challenges of climate and ecological studies. Here we test the Community Land Model (CLM) by asking the question: does the model behave like an ecosystem? We pursue its answer by testing CLM in the ecosystem functional space (EFS) at the Missouri Ozark AmeriFlux (MOFLUX) forest site in the Central U.S., focusing on carbon and water flux responses to precipitation regimes and associated stresses. In the observed EFS, precipitationmore » regimes and associated water and heat stresses controlled seasonal and interannual variations of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of CO 2 and evapotranspiration in this deciduous forest ecosystem. Such controls were exerted more strongly by precipitation variability than by the total precipitation amount per se. A few simply constructed climate variability indices captured these controls, suggesting a high degree of potential predictability. While the interannual fluctuation in NEE was large, a net carbon sink was maintained even during an extreme drought year. Although CLM predicted seasonal and interanual variations in evapotranspiration reasonably well, its predictions of net carbon uptake were too small across the observed range of climate variability. Also, the model systematically underestimated the sensitivities of NEE and evapotranspiration to climate variability and overestimated the coupling strength between carbon and water fluxes. Its suspected that the modeled and observed trajectories of ecosystem fluxes did not overlap in the EFS and the model did not behave like the ecosystem it attempted to simulate. A definitive conclusion will require comprehensive parameter and structural sensitivity tests in a rigorous mathematical framework. We also suggest that future model improvements should focus on better representation and parameterization of process responses to environmental stresses and on more complete and robust representations of carbon-specific processes so that adequate responses to climate variability and a proper degree of coupling between carbon and water exchanges are captured.« less

Testing a land model in ecosystem functional space via a comparison of observed and modeled ecosystem flux responses to precipitation regimes and associated stresses in a Central U.S. forest: Test Model in Ecosystem Functional Space

DOE PAGES

Gu, Lianhong; Pallardy, Stephen G.; Yang, Bai; ...

2016-07-14

Testing complex land surface models has often proceeded by asking the question: does the model prediction agree with the observation? This approach has yet led to high-performance terrestrial models that meet the challenges of climate and ecological studies. Here we test the Community Land Model (CLM) by asking the question: does the model behave like an ecosystem? We pursue its answer by testing CLM in the ecosystem functional space (EFS) at the Missouri Ozark AmeriFlux (MOFLUX) forest site in the Central U.S., focusing on carbon and water flux responses to precipitation regimes and associated stresses. In the observed EFS, precipitationmore » regimes and associated water and heat stresses controlled seasonal and interannual variations of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of CO 2 and evapotranspiration in this deciduous forest ecosystem. Such controls were exerted more strongly by precipitation variability than by the total precipitation amount per se. A few simply constructed climate variability indices captured these controls, suggesting a high degree of potential predictability. While the interannual fluctuation in NEE was large, a net carbon sink was maintained even during an extreme drought year. Although CLM predicted seasonal and interanual variations in evapotranspiration reasonably well, its predictions of net carbon uptake were too small across the observed range of climate variability. Also, the model systematically underestimated the sensitivities of NEE and evapotranspiration to climate variability and overestimated the coupling strength between carbon and water fluxes. Its suspected that the modeled and observed trajectories of ecosystem fluxes did not overlap in the EFS and the model did not behave like the ecosystem it attempted to simulate. A definitive conclusion will require comprehensive parameter and structural sensitivity tests in a rigorous mathematical framework. We also suggest that future model improvements should focus on better representation and parameterization of process responses to environmental stresses and on more complete and robust representations of carbon-specific processes so that adequate responses to climate variability and a proper degree of coupling between carbon and water exchanges are captured.« less

Land-use planning for nearshore ecosystem services—the Puget Sound Ecosystem Portfolio Model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Byrd, Kristin

2011-01-01

The 2,500 miles of shoreline and nearshore areas of Puget Sound, Washington, provide multiple benefits to people—"ecosystem services"—including important fishing, shellfishing, and recreation industries. To help resource managers plan for expected growth in coming decades, the U.S. Geological Survey Western Geographic Science Center has developed the Puget Sound Ecosystem Portfolio Model (PSEPM). Scenarios of urban growth and shoreline modifications serve as model inputs to develop alternative futures of important nearshore features such as water quality and beach habitats. Model results will support regional long-term planning decisions for the Puget Sound region.

Testing the sensitivity of terrestrial carbon models using remotely sensed biomass estimates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hashimoto, H.; Saatchi, S. S.; Meyer, V.; Milesi, C.; Wang, W.; Ganguly, S.; Zhang, G.; Nemani, R. R.

2010-12-01

There is a large uncertainty in carbon allocation and biomass accumulation in forest ecosystems. With the recent availability of remotely sensed biomass estimates, we now can test some of the hypotheses commonly implemented in various ecosystem models. We used biomass estimates derived by integrating MODIS, GLAS and PALSAR data to verify above-ground biomass estimates simulated by a number of ecosystem models (CASA, BIOME-BGC, BEAMS, LPJ). This study extends the hierarchical framework (Wang et al., 2010) for diagnosing ecosystem models by incorporating independent estimates of biomass for testing and calibrating respiration, carbon allocation, turn-over algorithms or parameters.

Representing the effects of alpine grassland vegetation cover on the simulation of soil thermal dynamics by ecosystem models applied to the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

USGS Publications Warehouse

Yi, S.; Li, N.; Xiang, B.; Wang, X.; Ye, B.; McGuire, A.D.

2013-01-01

Soil surface temperature is a critical boundary condition for the simulation of soil temperature by environmental models. It is influenced by atmospheric and soil conditions and by vegetation cover. In sophisticated land surface models, it is simulated iteratively by solving surface energy budget equations. In ecosystem, permafrost, and hydrology models, the consideration of soil surface temperature is generally simple. In this study, we developed a methodology for representing the effects of vegetation cover and atmospheric factors on the estimation of soil surface temperature for alpine grassland ecosystems on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. Our approach integrated measurements from meteorological stations with simulations from a sophisticated land surface model to develop an equation set for estimating soil surface temperature. After implementing this equation set into an ecosystem model and evaluating the performance of the ecosystem model in simulating soil temperature at different depths in the soil profile, we applied the model to simulate interactions among vegetation cover, freeze-thaw cycles, and soil erosion to demonstrate potential applications made possible through the implementation of the methodology developed in this study. Results showed that (1) to properly estimate daily soil surface temperature, algorithms should use air temperature, downward solar radiation, and vegetation cover as independent variables; (2) the equation set developed in this study performed better than soil surface temperature algorithms used in other models; and (3) the ecosystem model performed well in simulating soil temperature throughout the soil profile using the equation set developed in this study. Our application of the model indicates that the representation in ecosystem models of the effects of vegetation cover on the simulation of soil thermal dynamics has the potential to substantially improve our understanding of the vulnerability of alpine grassland ecosystems to changes in climate and grazing regimes.

Representing the effects of alpine grassland vegetation cover on the simulation of soil thermal dynamics by ecosystem models applied to the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yi, S.; Li, N.; Xiang, B.; Wang, X.; Ye, B.; McGuire, A. D.

2013-07-01

surface temperature is a critical boundary condition for the simulation of soil temperature by environmental models. It is influenced by atmospheric and soil conditions and by vegetation cover. In sophisticated land surface models, it is simulated iteratively by solving surface energy budget equations. In ecosystem, permafrost, and hydrology models, the consideration of soil surface temperature is generally simple. In this study, we developed a methodology for representing the effects of vegetation cover and atmospheric factors on the estimation of soil surface temperature for alpine grassland ecosystems on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. Our approach integrated measurements from meteorological stations with simulations from a sophisticated land surface model to develop an equation set for estimating soil surface temperature. After implementing this equation set into an ecosystem model and evaluating the performance of the ecosystem model in simulating soil temperature at different depths in the soil profile, we applied the model to simulate interactions among vegetation cover, freeze-thaw cycles, and soil erosion to demonstrate potential applications made possible through the implementation of the methodology developed in this study. Results showed that (1) to properly estimate daily soil surface temperature, algorithms should use air temperature, downward solar radiation, and vegetation cover as independent variables; (2) the equation set developed in this study performed better than soil surface temperature algorithms used in other models; and (3) the ecosystem model performed well in simulating soil temperature throughout the soil profile using the equation set developed in this study. Our application of the model indicates that the representation in ecosystem models of the effects of vegetation cover on the simulation of soil thermal dynamics has the potential to substantially improve our understanding of the vulnerability of alpine grassland ecosystems to changes in climate and grazing regimes.

The Integrated Landscape Modeling partnership - Current status and future directions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mushet, David M.; Scherff, Eric J.

2016-01-28

The Integrated Landscape Modeling (ILM) partnership is an effort by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) to identify, evaluate, and develop models to quantify services derived from ecosystems, with a focus on wetland ecosystems and conservation effects. The ILM partnership uses the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) modeling platform to facilitate regional quantifications of ecosystem services under various scenarios of land-cover change that are representative of differing conservation program and practice implementation scenarios. To date, the ILM InVEST partnership has resulted in capabilities to quantify carbon stores, amphibian habitat, plant-community diversity, and pollination services. Work to include waterfowl and grassland bird habitat quality is in progress. Initial InVEST modeling has been focused on the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of the United States; future efforts might encompass other regions as data availability and knowledge increase as to how functions affecting ecosystem services differ among regions.The ILM partnership is also developing the capability for field-scale process-based modeling of depressional wetland ecosystems using the Agricultural Policy/Environmental Extender (APEX) model. Progress was made towards the development of techniques to use the APEX model for closed-basin depressional wetlands of the PPR, in addition to the open systems that the model was originally designed to simulate. The ILM partnership has matured to the stage where effects of conservation programs and practices on multiple ecosystem services can now be simulated in selected areas. Future work might include the continued development of modeling capabilities, as well as development and evaluation of differing conservation program and practice scenarios of interest to partner agencies including the USDA’s Farm Service Agency (FSA) and Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS). When combined, the ecosystem services modeling capabilities of InVEST and the process-based abilities of the APEX model should provide complementary information needed to meet USDA and the Department of the Interior information needs.

Watershed sustainability, modeling, and model uncertainty

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MEA) was the first major integrated global assessment examining degradation of ecosystems and the impacts on humans (Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005). It concluded that unprecedented ecological change has occurred in the last 50 years. Although many of thes...

Modeling coupled interactions of carbon, water, and ozone exchange between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere

Treesearch

Ned Nikolova; Karl F. Zeller

2003-01-01

A new biophysical model (FORFLUX) is presented to study the simultaneous exchange of ozone, carbon dioxide, and water vapor between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere. The model mechanistically couples all major processes controlling ecosystem flows trace gases and water implementing recent concepts in plant eco-physiology, micrometeorology, and soil hydrology....

One carbon cycle: Impacts of model integration, ecosystem process detail, model resolution, and initialization data, on projections of future climate mitigation strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fisk, J.; Hurtt, G. C.; le page, Y.; Patel, P. L.; Chini, L. P.; Sahajpal, R.; Dubayah, R.; Thomson, A. M.; Edmonds, J.; Janetos, A. C.

2013-12-01

Integrated assessment models (IAMs) simulate the interactions between human and natural systems at a global scale, representing a broad suite of phenomena across the global economy, energy system, land-use, and carbon cycling. Most proposed climate mitigation strategies rely on maintaining or enhancing the terrestrial carbon sink as a substantial contribution to restrain the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, however most IAMs rely on simplified regional representations of terrestrial carbon dynamics. Our research aims to reduce uncertainties associated with forest modeling within integrated assessments, and to quantify the impacts of climate change on forest growth and productivity for integrated assessments of terrestrial carbon management. We developed the new Integrated Ecosystem Demography (iED) to increase terrestrial ecosystem process detail, resolution, and the utilization of remote sensing in integrated assessments. iED brings together state-of-the-art models of human society (GCAM), spatial land-use patterns (GLM) and terrestrial ecosystems (ED) in a fully coupled framework. The major innovative feature of iED is a consistent, process-based representation of ecosystem dynamics and carbon cycle throughout the human, terrestrial, land-use, and atmospheric components. One of the most challenging aspects of ecosystem modeling is to provide accurate initialization of land surface conditions to reflect non-equilibrium conditions, i.e., the actual successional state of the forest. As all plants in ED have an explicit height, it is one of the few ecosystem models that can be initialized directly with vegetation height data. Previous work has demonstrated that ecosystem model resolution and initialization data quality have a large effect on flux predictions at continental scales. Here we use a factorial modeling experiment to quantify the impacts of model integration, process detail, model resolution, and initialization data on projections of future climate mitigation strategies. We find substantial effects on key integrated assessment projections including the magnitude of emissions to mitigate, the economic value of ecosystem carbon storage, future land-use patterns, food prices and energy technology.

An original model of the northern Gulf of Mexico using Ecopath with Ecosim and its implications for the effects of fishing on ecosystem structure and maturity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Geers, T. M.; Pikitch, E. K.; Frisk, M. G.

2016-07-01

The Gulf of Mexico (GoM) is a valuable ecosystem both socially and economically, and fisheries contribute substantially to this value. Gulf menhaden, Brevoortia patronus, support the largest fishery in the Gulf (by weight) and provide forage for marine mammals, seabirds and commercially and recreationally important fish species. Understanding the complex interactions among multiple fisheries and myriad unfished species requires tools different from those used in traditional single-species management. One such tool, Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE) is increasingly being used to construct food web models of aquatic ecosystems and to evaluate fisheries management options within a broader, ecosystem context. Here, an EwE model was developed to examine the impact of Gulf fisheries on ecosystem structure and maturity. This model builds on previously published EwE models of the GoM, and is tailored to the range and habitat of Gulf menhaden. The model presented here consists of 47 functional groups, including 4 seabird groups, 1 marine mammal group, 3 elasmobranch groups, 26 bony fish groups, 9 invertebrate groups, 3 primary producer groups and 1 detritus group. A number of different management scenarios for Gulf fisheries were modeled and the results were evaluated in terms of impacts on ecosystem maturity and development. The results of the model simulations indicated that the northern Gulf of Mexico is in an immature state (sensuOdum, 1969). Management scenarios that increased fishing pressure over time consistently resulted in a decrease in the maturity indices. In particular, we found that Gulf menhaden, as a key forage fish in the ecosystem, plays a substantial role in the structure and functioning of the ecosystem.

Modelling hydrological processes and analysing water-related ecosystem services of Western Siberian lowland basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmalz, Britta; Kiesel, Jens; Kruse, Marion; Pfannerstill, Matthias; Sheludkov, Artyom; Khoroshavin, Vitaliy; Veshkurseva, Tatyana; Müller, Felix; Fohrer, Nicola

2015-04-01

For discussing and planning sustainable land management of river basins, stakeholders need suitable information on spatio-temporal patterns of hydrological components and ecosystem services. The ecosystem services concept, i.e., services provided by ecosystems that contribute to human welfare benefits, contributes comprehensive information for sustainable river management. This study shows an approach to use ecohydrological modelling results for quantifying and assessing water-related ecosystem services in three lowland river basins in Western Siberia, a region which is of global significance in terms of carbon sequestration, agricultural production and biodiversity preservation. Using the ecohydrological model SWAT, the three basins Pyschma (16762 km²), Vagai (3348 km²) and Loktinka (373 km²) were modelled following a gradient from the landscape units taiga, pre-taiga to forest steppe. For a correct representation of the Siberian lowland hydrology, the consideration of snow melt and retention of surface runoff as well as the implementation of a second groundwater aquifer was of great importance. Good to satisfying model performances were obtained for the extreme hydrological conditions. The simulated SWAT output variables of different hydrological processes were used as indicators for the two regulating services water flow and erosion regulation. The model results were translated into a relative ecosystem service valuation scale. The resulting ecosystem service maps show different spatial and seasonal patterns. Although the high resolution modelling results are averaged out within the aggregated relative valuation scale, seasonal differences can be depicted: during snowmelt, low relevant regulation can be determined, especially for water flow regulation, but a very high relevant regulation was calculated for the vegetation period during summer and for the winter period. The SWAT model serves as a suitable quantification method for the assessment of water-related ecosystem services on different spatial scales and ecoregions of the Western Siberian lowlands.

Alternative ways of using field-based estimates to calibrate ecosystem models and their implications for ecosystem carbon cycle studies

Treesearch

Y. He; Q. Zhuang; A.D. McGuire; Y. Liu; M. Chen

2013-01-01

Model-data fusion is a process in which field observations are used to constrain model parameters. How observations are used to constrain parameters has a direct impact on the carbon cycle dynamics simulated by ecosystem models. In this study, we present an evaluation of several options for the use of observations inmodeling regional carbon dynamics and explore the...

Adressing optimality principles in DGVMs: Dynamics of Carbon allocation changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pietsch, Stephan

2017-04-01

DGVMs are designed to reproduce and quantify ecosystem processes. Based on plant functions or species specific parameter sets, the energy, carbon, nitrogen and water cycles of different ecosystems are assessed. These models have been proven to be important tools to investigate ecosystem fluxes as they are derived by plant, site and environmental factors. The general model approach assumes steady state conditions and constant model parameters. Both assumptions, however, are wrong, since: (i) No given ecosystem ever is at steady state! (ii) Ecosystems have the capability to adapt to changes in growth conditions, e.g. via changes in allocation patterns! This presentation will give examples how these general failures within current DGVMs may be addressed.

Adressing optimality principles in DGVMs: Dynamics of Carbon allocation changes.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pietsch, S.

2016-12-01

DGVMs are designed to reproduce and quantify ecosystem processes. Based on plant functions or species specific parameter sets, the energy, carbon, nitrogen and water cycles of different ecosystems are assessed. These models have been proven to be important tools to investigate ecosystem fluxes as they are derived by plant, site and environmental factors. The general model approach assumes steady state conditions and constant model parameters. Both assumptions, however, are wrong. Any given ecosystem never is at steady state! Ecosystems have the capability to adapt to changes in growth conditions, e.g. via changes in allocation patterns! This presentation will give examples how these general failures within current DGVMs may be addressed.

Trophic models: What do we learn about Celtic Sea and Bay of Biscay ecosystems?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moullec, Fabien; Gascuel, Didier; Bentorcha, Karim; Guénette, Sylvie; Robert, Marianne

2017-08-01

Trophic models are key tools to go beyond the single-species approaches used in stock assessments to adopt a more holistic view and implement the Ecosystem Approach to Fisheries Management (EAFM). This study aims to: (i) analyse the trophic functioning of the Celtic Sea and the Bay of Biscay, (ii) investigate ecosystem changes over the 1980-2013 period and, (iii) explore the response to management measures at the food web scale. Ecopath models were built for each ecosystem for years 1980 and 2013, and Ecosim models were fitted to time series data of biomass and catches. EcoTroph diagnosis showed that in both ecosystems, fishing pressure focuses on high trophic levels (TLs) and, to a lesser extent, on intermediate TLs. However, the interplay between local environmental conditions, species composition and ecosystem functioning could explain the different responses to fisheries management observed between these two contiguous ecosystems. Indeed, over the study period, the ecosystem's exploitation status has improved in the Bay of Biscay but not in the Celtic Sea. This improvement does not seem to be sufficient to achieve the objectives of an EAFM, as high trophic levels were still overexploited in 2013 and simulations conducted with Ecosim in the Bay of Biscay indicate that at current fishing effort the biomass will not be rebuilt by 2030. The ecosystem's response to a reduction in fishing mortality depends on which trophic levels receive protection. Reducing fishing mortality on pelagic fish, instead of on demersal fish, appears more efficient at maximising catch and total biomass and at conserving both top-predator and intermediate TLs. Such advice-oriented trophic models should be used on a regular basis to monitor the health status of marine food webs and analyse the trade-offs between multiple objectives in an ecosystem-based fisheries management context.

Competition favors elk over beaver in a riparian willow ecosystem

USGS Publications Warehouse

Baker, B.W.; Peinetti, H.R.; Coughenour, M.C.; Johnson, T.L.

2012-01-01

Beaver (Castor spp.) conservation requires an understanding of their complex interactions with competing herbivores. Simulation modeling offers a controlled environment to examine long-term dynamics in ecosystems driven by uncontrollable variables. We used a new version of the SAVANNA ecosystem model to investigate beaver (C. Canadensis) and elk (Cervus elapses) competition for willow (Salix spp.). We initialized the model with field data from Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado, USA, to simulate a 4-ha riparian ecosystem containing beaver, elk, and willow. We found beaver persisted indefinitely when elk density was or = 30 elk km_2. The loss of tall willow preceded rapid beaver declines, thus willow condition may predict beaver population trajectory in natural environments. Beaver were able to persist with slightly higher elk densities if beaver alternated their use of foraging sites in a rest-rotation pattern rather than maintained continuous use. Thus, we found asymmetrical competition for willow strongly favored elk over beaver in a simulated montane ecosystem. Finally, we discuss application of the SAVANNA model and mechanisms of competition relative to beaver persistence as metapopulations, ecological resistance and alternative state models, and ecosystem regulation.

Indicators of ecosystem function identify alternate states in the sagebrush steppe.

PubMed

Kachergis, Emily; Rocca, Monique E; Fernandez-Gimenez, Maria E

2011-10-01

Models of ecosystem change that incorporate nonlinear dynamics and thresholds, such as state-and-transition models (STMs), are increasingly popular tools for land management decision-making. However, few models are based on systematic collection and documentation of ecological data, and of these, most rely solely on structural indicators (species composition) to identify states and transitions. As STMs are adopted as an assessment framework throughout the United States, finding effective and efficient ways to create data-driven models that integrate ecosystem function and structure is vital. This study aims to (1) evaluate the utility of functional indicators (indicators of rangeland health, IRH) as proxies for more difficult ecosystem function measurements and (2) create a data-driven STM for the sagebrush steppe of Colorado, USA, that incorporates both ecosystem structure and function. We sampled soils, plant communities, and IRH at 41 plots with similar clayey soils but different site histories to identify potential states and infer the effects of management practices and disturbances on transitions. We found that many IRH were correlated with quantitative measures of functional indicators, suggesting that the IRH can be used to approximate ecosystem function. In addition to a reference state that functions as expected for this soil type, we identified four biotically and functionally distinct potential states, consistent with the theoretical concept of alternate states. Three potential states were related to management practices (chemical and mechanical shrub treatments and seeding history) while one was related only to ecosystem processes (erosion). IRH and potential states were also related to environmental variation (slope, soil texture), suggesting that there are environmental factors within areas with similar soils that affect ecosystem dynamics and should be noted within STMs. Our approach generated an objective, data-driven model of ecosystem dynamics for rangeland management. Our findings suggest that the IRH approximate ecosystem processes and can distinguish between alternate states and communities and identify transitions when building data-driven STMs. Functional indicators are a simple, efficient way to create data-driven models that are consistent with alternate state theory. Managers can use them to improve current model-building methods and thus apply state-and-transition models more broadly for land management decision-making.

Dynamical entropy via entropy of non-random matrices: application to stability and complexity in modelling ecosystems.

PubMed

Chakrabarti, C G; Ghosh, Koyel

2013-10-01

In the present paper we have first introduced a measure of dynamical entropy of an ecosystem on the basis of the dynamical model of the system. The dynamical entropy which depends on the eigenvalues of the community matrix of the system leads to a consistent measure of complexity of the ecosystem to characterize the dynamical behaviours such as the stability, instability and periodicity around the stationary states of the system. We have illustrated the theory with some model ecosystems. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Priming effect and microbial diversity in ecosystem functioning and response to global change: a modeling approach using the SYMPHONY model.

PubMed

Perveen, Nazia; Barot, Sébastien; Alvarez, Gaël; Klumpp, Katja; Martin, Raphael; Rapaport, Alain; Herfurth, Damien; Louault, Frédérique; Fontaine, Sébastien

2014-04-01

Integration of the priming effect (PE) in ecosystem models is crucial to better predict the consequences of global change on ecosystem carbon (C) dynamics and its feedbacks on climate. Over the last decade, many attempts have been made to model PE in soil. However, PE has not yet been incorporated into any ecosystem models. Here, we build plant/soil models to explore how PE and microbial diversity influence soil/plant interactions and ecosystem C and nitrogen (N) dynamics in response to global change (elevated CO2 and atmospheric N depositions). Our results show that plant persistence, soil organic matter (SOM) accumulation, and low N leaching in undisturbed ecosystems relies on a fine adjustment of microbial N mineralization to plant N uptake. This adjustment can be modeled in the SYMPHONY model by considering the destruction of SOM through PE, and the interactions between two microbial functional groups: SOM decomposers and SOM builders. After estimation of parameters, SYMPHONY provided realistic predictions on forage production, soil C storage and N leaching for a permanent grassland. Consistent with recent observations, SYMPHONY predicted a CO2 -induced modification of soil microbial communities leading to an intensification of SOM mineralization and a decrease in the soil C stock. SYMPHONY also indicated that atmospheric N deposition may promote SOM accumulation via changes in the structure and metabolic activities of microbial communities. Collectively, these results suggest that the PE and functional role of microbial diversity may be incorporated in ecosystem models with a few additional parameters, improving accuracy of predictions. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

An integrated model of soil, hydrology, and vegetation for carbon dynamics in wetland ecosystems

Treesearch

Yu Zhang; Changsheng Li; Carl C. Trettin; Harbin Li; Ge Sun

2002-01-01

Wetland ecosystems are an important component in global carbon (C) cycles and may exert a large influence on global clinlate change. Predictions of C dynamics require us to consider interactions among many critical factors of soil, hydrology, and vegetation. However, few such integrated C models exist for wetland ecosystems. In this paper, we report a simulation model...

Conceptual ecological models to guide integrated landscape monitoring of the Great Basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Miller, D.M.; Finn, S.P.; Woodward, Andrea; Torregrosa, Alicia; Miller, M.E.; Bedford, D.R.; Brasher, A.M.

2010-01-01

The Great Basin Integrated Landscape Monitoring Pilot Project was developed in response to the need for a monitoring and predictive capability that addresses changes in broad landscapes and waterscapes. Human communities and needs are nested within landscapes formed by interactions among the hydrosphere, geosphere, and biosphere. Understanding the complex processes that shape landscapes and deriving ways to manage them sustainably while meeting human needs require sophisticated modeling and monitoring. This document summarizes current understanding of ecosystem structure and function for many of the ecosystems within the Great Basin using conceptual models. The conceptual ecosystem models identify key ecological components and processes, identify external drivers, develop a hierarchical set of models that address both site and landscape attributes, inform regional monitoring strategy, and identify critical gaps in our knowledge of ecosystem function. The report also illustrates an approach for temporal and spatial scaling from site-specific models to landscape models and for understanding cumulative effects. Eventually, conceptual models can provide a structure for designing monitoring programs, interpreting monitoring and other data, and assessing the accuracy of our understanding of ecosystem functions and processes.

Use of hydrologic and hydrodynamic modeling for ecosystem restoration

USGS Publications Warehouse

Obeysekera, J.; Kuebler, L.; Ahmed, S.; Chang, M.-L.; Engel, V.; Langevin, C.; Swain, E.; Wan, Y.

2011-01-01

Planning and implementation of unprecedented projects for restoring the greater Everglades ecosystem are underway and the hydrologic and hydrodynamic modeling of restoration alternatives has become essential for success of restoration efforts. In view of the complex nature of the South Florida water resources system, regional-scale (system-wide) hydrologic models have been developed and used extensively for the development of the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan. In addition, numerous subregional-scale hydrologic and hydrodynamic models have been developed and are being used for evaluating project-scale water management plans associated with urban, agricultural, and inland costal ecosystems. The authors provide a comprehensive summary of models of all scales, as well as the next generation models under development to meet the future needs of ecosystem restoration efforts in South Florida. The multiagency efforts to develop and apply models have allowed the agencies to understand the complex hydrologic interactions, quantify appropriate performance measures, and use new technologies in simulation algorithms, software development, and GIS/database techniques to meet the future modeling needs of the ecosystem restoration programs. Copyright ?? 2011 Taylor & Francis Group, LLC.

Modeling Net Ecosystem Carbon Exchange of Alpine Grasslands with a Satellite-Driven Model

PubMed Central

Zhao, Yuping; Zhang, Xianzhou; Fan, Yuzhi; Shi, Peili; He, Yongtao; Yu, Guirui; Li, Yingnian

2015-01-01

Estimate of net ecosystem carbon exchange (NEE) between the atmosphere and terrestrial ecosystems, the balance of gross primary productivity (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (Reco) has significant importance for studying the regional and global carbon cycles. Using models driven by satellite data and climatic data is a promising approach to estimate NEE at regional scales. For this purpose, we proposed a semi-empirical model to estimate NEE in this study. In our model, the component GPP was estimated with a light response curve of a rectangular hyperbola. The component Reco was estimated with an exponential function of soil temperature. To test the feasibility of applying our model at regional scales, the temporal variations in the model parameters derived from NEE observations in an alpine grassland ecosystem on Tibetan Plateau were investigated. The results indicated that all the inverted parameters exhibit apparent seasonality, which is in accordance with air temperature and canopy phenology. In addition, all the parameters have significant correlations with the remote sensed vegetation indexes or environment temperature. With parameters estimated with these correlations, the model illustrated fair accuracy both in the validation years and at another alpine grassland ecosystem on Tibetan Plateau. Our results also indicated that the model prediction was less accurate in drought years, implying that soil moisture is an important factor affecting the model performance. Incorporating soil water content into the model would be a critical step for the improvement of the model. PMID:25849325

Modeling net ecosystem carbon exchange of alpine grasslands with a satellite-driven model.

PubMed

Yan, Wei; Hu, Zhongmin; Zhao, Yuping; Zhang, Xianzhou; Fan, Yuzhi; Shi, Peili; He, Yongtao; Yu, Guirui; Li, Yingnian

2015-01-01

Estimate of net ecosystem carbon exchange (NEE) between the atmosphere and terrestrial ecosystems, the balance of gross primary productivity (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (Reco) has significant importance for studying the regional and global carbon cycles. Using models driven by satellite data and climatic data is a promising approach to estimate NEE at regional scales. For this purpose, we proposed a semi-empirical model to estimate NEE in this study. In our model, the component GPP was estimated with a light response curve of a rectangular hyperbola. The component Reco was estimated with an exponential function of soil temperature. To test the feasibility of applying our model at regional scales, the temporal variations in the model parameters derived from NEE observations in an alpine grassland ecosystem on Tibetan Plateau were investigated. The results indicated that all the inverted parameters exhibit apparent seasonality, which is in accordance with air temperature and canopy phenology. In addition, all the parameters have significant correlations with the remote sensed vegetation indexes or environment temperature. With parameters estimated with these correlations, the model illustrated fair accuracy both in the validation years and at another alpine grassland ecosystem on Tibetan Plateau. Our results also indicated that the model prediction was less accurate in drought years, implying that soil moisture is an important factor affecting the model performance. Incorporating soil water content into the model would be a critical step for the improvement of the model.

Controlling species richness in spin-glass model ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Poderoso, Fábio C.; Fontanari, José F.

2006-11-01

Within the framework of the random replicator model of ecosystems, we use equilibrium statistical mechanics tools to study the effect of manipulating the ecosystem so as to guarantee that a fixed fraction of the surviving species at equilibrium display a predefined set of characters (e.g., characters of economic value). Provided that the intraspecies competition is not too weak, we find that the consequence of such intervention on the ecosystem composition is a significant increase on the number of species that become extinct, and so the impoverishment of the ecosystem.

An underwater light attenuation scheme for marine ecosystem models.

PubMed

Penta, Bradley; Lee, Zhongping; Kudela, Raphael M; Palacios, Sherry L; Gray, Deric J; Jolliff, Jason K; Shulman, Igor G

2008-10-13

Simulation of underwater light is essential for modeling marine ecosystems. A new model of underwater light attenuation is presented and compared with previous models. In situ data collected in Monterey Bay, CA. during September 2006 are used for validation. It is demonstrated that while the new light model is computationally simple and efficient it maintains accuracy and flexibility. When this light model is incorporated into an ecosystem model, the correlation between modeled and observed coastal chlorophyll is improved over an eight-year time period. While the simulation of a deep chlorophyll maximum demonstrates the effect of the new model at depth.

AQUATOX coupled foodweb model for ecosystem risk assessment of Polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) in lake ecosystems.

PubMed

Zhang, Lulu; Liu, Jingling

2014-08-01

The AQUATOX model considers the direct toxic effects of chemicals and their indirect effects through foodwebs. For this study, the AQUATOX model was applied to evaluating the ecological risk of Polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) in a highly anthropogenically disturbed lake-Baiyangdian Lake. Calibration and validation results indicated that the model can adequately describe the dynamics of 18 biological populations. Sensitivity analysis results suggested that the model is highly sensitive to temperature limitation. PBDEs risk estimate results demonstrate that estimated risk for natural ecosystems cannot be fully explained by single species toxicity data alone. The AQUATOX model could provide a good basis in ascertaining ecological protection levels of "chemicals of concern" for aquatic ecosystems. Therefore, AQUATOX can potentially be used to provide necessary information corresponding to early warning and rapid forecasting of pollutant transport and fate in the management of chemicals that put aquatic ecosystems at risk. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Marine ecosystem modeling beyond the box: using GIS to study carbon fluxes in a coastal ecosystem.

PubMed

Wijnbladh, Erik; Jönsson, Bror Fredrik; Kumblad, Linda

2006-12-01

Studies of carbon fluxes in marine ecosystems are often done by using box model approaches with basin size boxes, or highly resolved 3D models, and an emphasis on the pelagic component of the ecosystem. Those approaches work well in the ocean proper, but can give rise to considerable problems when applied to coastal systems, because of the scale of certain ecological niches and the fact that benthic organisms are the dominant functional group of the ecosystem. In addition, 3D models require an extensive modeling effort. In this project, an intermediate approach based on a high resolution (20x20 m) GIS data-grid has been developed for the coastal ecosystem in the Laxemar area (Baltic Sea, Sweden) based on a number of different site investigations. The model has been developed in the context of a safety assessment project for a proposed nuclear waste repository, in which the fate of hypothetically released radionuclides from the planned repository is estimated. The assessment project requires not only a good understanding of the ecosystem dynamics at the site, but also quantification of stocks and flows of matter in the system. The data-grid was then used to set up a carbon budget describing the spatial distribution of biomass, primary production, net ecosystem production and thus where carbon sinks and sources are located in the area. From these results, it was clear that there was a large variation in ecosystem characteristics within the basins and, on a larger scale, that the inner areas are net producing and the outer areas net respiring, even in shallow phytobenthic communities. Benthic processes had a similar or larger influence on carbon fluxes as advective processes in inner areas, whereas the opposite appears to be true in the outer basins. As many radionuclides are expected to follow the pathways of organic matter in the environment, these findings enhance our abilities to realistically describe and predict their fate in the ecosystem.

Multiple resource use efficiency (mRUE): A new concept for ecosystem production

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Han, Juanjuan; Chen, Jiquan; Miao, Yuan

The resource-driven concept, which is an important school for investigating ecosystem production, has been applied for decades. However, the regulatory mechanisms of production by multiple resources remain unclear. We formulated a new algorithm model that integrates multiple resource uses to study ecosystem production and tested its applications on a water-availability gradient in semi-arid grassland. The result of our experiment showed that changes in water availability significantly affected the resources of light and nitrogen, and altered the relationships among multiple resource absorption rate (ε), multiple resource use efficiency (mRUE), and available resource (R avail). The increased water availability suppressed ecosystem mRUEmore » (i.e., “declining marginal returns”); The changes in mRUE had a negative effect on ε (i.e., “inverse feedback”). These two processes jointly regulated that the stimulated single resource availability would promote ecosystem production rather than suppress it, even when mRUE was reduced. This study illustrated the use of the mRUE model in exploring the coherent relationships among the key parameters on regulating the ecosystem production for future modeling, and evaluated the sensitivity of this conceptual model under different dataset properties. Furthermore, this model needs extensive validation by the ecological community before it can extrapolate this method to other ecosystems in the future.« less

Multiple resource use efficiency (mRUE): A new concept for ecosystem production

DOE PAGES

Han, Juanjuan; Chen, Jiquan; Miao, Yuan; ...

2016-11-21

The resource-driven concept, which is an important school for investigating ecosystem production, has been applied for decades. However, the regulatory mechanisms of production by multiple resources remain unclear. We formulated a new algorithm model that integrates multiple resource uses to study ecosystem production and tested its applications on a water-availability gradient in semi-arid grassland. The result of our experiment showed that changes in water availability significantly affected the resources of light and nitrogen, and altered the relationships among multiple resource absorption rate (ε), multiple resource use efficiency (mRUE), and available resource (R avail). The increased water availability suppressed ecosystem mRUEmore » (i.e., “declining marginal returns”); The changes in mRUE had a negative effect on ε (i.e., “inverse feedback”). These two processes jointly regulated that the stimulated single resource availability would promote ecosystem production rather than suppress it, even when mRUE was reduced. This study illustrated the use of the mRUE model in exploring the coherent relationships among the key parameters on regulating the ecosystem production for future modeling, and evaluated the sensitivity of this conceptual model under different dataset properties. Furthermore, this model needs extensive validation by the ecological community before it can extrapolate this method to other ecosystems in the future.« less

Multiple Resource Use Efficiency (mRUE): A New Concept for Ecosystem Production.

PubMed

Han, Juanjuan; Chen, Jiquan; Miao, Yuan; Wan, Shiqiang

2016-11-21

The resource-driven concept, which is an important school for investigating ecosystem production, has been applied for decades. However, the regulatory mechanisms of production by multiple resources remain unclear. We formulated a new algorithm model that integrates multiple resource uses to study ecosystem production and tested its applications on a water-availability gradient in semi-arid grassland. The result of our experiment showed that changes in water availability significantly affected the resources of light and nitrogen, and altered the relationships among multiple resource absorption rate (ε), multiple resource use efficiency (mRUE), and available resource (R avail ). The increased water availability suppressed ecosystem mRUE (i.e., "declining marginal returns"); The changes in mRUE had a negative effect on ε (i.e., "inverse feedback"). These two processes jointly regulated that the stimulated single resource availability would promote ecosystem production rather than suppress it, even when mRUE was reduced. This study illustrated the use of the mRUE model in exploring the coherent relationships among the key parameters on regulating the ecosystem production for future modeling, and evaluated the sensitivity of this conceptual model under different dataset properties. However, this model needs extensive validation by the ecological community before it can extrapolate this method to other ecosystems in the future.

A Simulation Model for Studying Effects of Pollution and Freshwater Inflow on Secondary Productivity in an Ecosystem. Ph.D. Thesis - North Carolina State Univ.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson, R. W.

1974-01-01

A mathematical model of an ecosystem is developed. Secondary productivity is evaluated in terms of man related and controllable factors. Information from an existing physical parameters model is used as well as pertinent biological measurements. Predictive information of value to estuarine management is presented. Biological, chemical, and physical parameters measured in order to develop models of ecosystems are identified.

Modelling Mediterranean agro-ecosystems by including agricultural trees in the LPJmL model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fader, M.; von Bloh, W.; Shi, S.; Bondeau, A.; Cramer, W.

2015-11-01

In the Mediterranean region, climate and land use change are expected to impact on natural and agricultural ecosystems by warming, reduced rainfall, direct degradation of ecosystems and biodiversity loss. Human population growth and socioeconomic changes, notably on the eastern and southern shores, will require increases in food production and put additional pressure on agro-ecosystems and water resources. Coping with these challenges requires informed decisions that, in turn, require assessments by means of a comprehensive agro-ecosystem and hydrological model. This study presents the inclusion of 10 Mediterranean agricultural plants, mainly perennial crops, in an agro-ecosystem model (Lund-Potsdam-Jena managed Land - LPJmL): nut trees, date palms, citrus trees, orchards, olive trees, grapes, cotton, potatoes, vegetables and fodder grasses. The model was successfully tested in three model outputs: agricultural yields, irrigation requirements and soil carbon density. With the development presented in this study, LPJmL is now able to simulate in good detail and mechanistically the functioning of Mediterranean agriculture with a comprehensive representation of ecophysiological processes for all vegetation types (natural and agricultural) and in a consistent framework that produces estimates of carbon, agricultural and hydrological variables for the entire Mediterranean basin. This development paves the way for further model extensions aiming at the representation of alternative agro-ecosystems (e.g. agroforestry), and opens the door for a large number of applications in the Mediterranean region, for example assessments of the consequences of land use transitions, the influence of management practices and climate change impacts.

Southwest Ecosystem Services Project (SwESP): Identifying Ecosystems Services Based on Tribal Values

EPA Science Inventory

USEPA Office of Research Development (ORD) new strategic focus is the measurement of benefits and services of ecosystem. The primary objective of the Ecosystem Services Research Program (ESRP) is to identify, measure, monitor, model and map ecosystem services and to enable their ...

An integrated eco-hydrologic modeling framework for assessing the effects of interacting stressors on forest ecosystem services

EPA Science Inventory

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency recently established the Ecosystem Services Research Program to help formulate methods and models for conducting comprehensive risk assessments that quantify how multiple ecosystem services interact and respond in concert to environmental ...

An integrated eco-hydrologic modeling framework for assessing the effects of interacting stressors on multiple ecosystem services

EPA Science Inventory

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency recently established the Ecosystem Services Research Program to help formulate methods and models for conducting comprehensive risk assessments that quantify how multiple ecosystem services interact and respond in concert to environmental ...

SIMULATION MODEL FOR WATERSHED MANAGEMENT PLANNING. VOLUME 1. MODEL THEORY AND FORMULATION

EPA Science Inventory

Evaluation of nonpoint source pollution problems requires an understanding of the behavioral response to an ecosystem to the impacts of land use activities on individual components of that ecosystem. By analyzing basic ecosystem processes and impacts of land use activities on spe...

Development of an integrated generic model for multi-scale assessment of the impacts of agro-ecosystems on major ecosystem services in West Africa.

PubMed

Belem, Mahamadou; Saqalli, Mehdi

2017-11-01

This paper presents an integrated model assessing the impacts of climate change, agro-ecosystem and demographic transition patterns on major ecosystem services in West-Africa along a partial overview of economic aspects (poverty reduction, food self-sufficiency and income generation). The model is based on an agent-based model associated with a soil model and multi-scale spatial model. The resulting Model for West-Africa Agro-Ecosystem Integrated Assessment (MOWASIA) is ecologically generic, meaning it is designed for all sudano-sahelian environments but may then be used as an experimentation facility for testing different scenarios combining ecological and socioeconomic dimensions. A case study in Burkina Faso is examined to assess the environmental and economic performances of semi-continuous and continuous farming systems. Results show that the semi-continuous system using organic fertilizer and fallowing practices contribute better to environment preservation and food security than the more economically performant continuous system. In addition, this study showed that farmers heterogeneity could play an important role in agricultural policies planning and assessment. In addition, the results showed that MOWASIA is an effective tool for designing, analysing the impacts of agro-ecosystems. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Sensitivity of productivity and respiration to water availability determines the net ecosystem exchange of carbon terrestrial ecosystems of the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Z.; Ballantyne, A.; Poulter, B.; Anderegg, W.; Jacobson, A. R.; Miller, J. B.

2017-12-01

Interannual variability (IAV) of atmospheric CO2 is primarily driven by fluctuations in net carbon exchange (NEE) by terrestrial ecosystems. Recent analyses suggested that global terrestrial carbon uptake is dominated by the sensitivity of productivity to precipitation in semi-arid ecosystems, or sensitivity of respiration to temperature in tropical ecosystems. There is a need to better understand factors that control the carbon balance of land ecosystems across spatial and temporal scales. Here we used multiple observational dataset to assess: (1) What are the dominant processes controlling the IAV of NEE in terrestrial ecosystem? What are the climatic controls on the variability gross primary productivity (GPP) and total ecosystem respiration (TER) in the contiguous United States (CONUS). Our analysis revealed that there is a strong positive correlation between IAV of GPP and IAV of NEE in drier (mean annual precipitation: MAP < 750mm) western ecosystem, while there is no correlation between IAV of GPP and IAV of NEE in moist (MAP > 750mm) eastern ecosystem using observational dataset. Both βspatial and βtemporal of GPP and TER to precipitation exhibit an emergent threshold where GPP is more sensitive than TER to precipitation in semi-arid western ecosystems and TER is more sensitive than GPP to precipitation in more humid eastern ecosystems. This emergent ecosystem threshold was evident in several independent observations. However, analyses from 10 TRENDY models indicate current Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs) tend to overestimate the sensitivity of NEE to GPP and underestimate the sensitivity of NEE to TER to precipitation across CONUS ecosystems. TER experiments showed that commonly used TER models failed to capture the IAV of TER in the moist region in CONUS. This is because heterotrophic respiration (Rh) was relatively independent of GPP in moist regions of CONUS, but was too tightly coupled to GPP in the DGVMs. The emergent thresholds at the ecosystem and continental scale may help reconcile model simulations and observations of terrestrial carbon processes.

A first-order analysis of the potential role of CO2 fertilization to affect the global carbon budget: A comparison of four terrestrial biosphere models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kicklighter, D.W.; Bruno, M.; Donges, S.; Esser, G.; Heimann, Martin; Helfrich, J.; Ift, F.; Joos, F.; Kaduk, J.; Kohlmaier, G.H.; McGuire, A.D.; Melillo, J.M.; Meyer, R.; Moore, B.; Nadler, A.; Prentice, I.C.; Sauf, W.; Schloss, A.L.; Sitch, S.; Wittenberg, U.; Wurth, G.

1999-01-01

We compared the simulated responses of net primary production, heterotrophic respiration, net ecosystem production and carbon storage in natural terrestrial ecosystems to historical (1765 to 1990) and projected (1990 to 2300) changes of atmospheric CO2 concentration of four terrestrial biosphere models: the Bern model, the Frankfurt Biosphere Model (FBM), the High-Resolution Biosphere Model (HRBM) and the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM). The results of the model intercomparison suggest that CO2 fertilization of natural terrestrial vegetation has the potential to account for a large fraction of the so-called 'missing carbon sink' of 2.0 Pg C in 1990. Estimates of this potential are reduced when the models incorporate the concept that CO2 fertilization can be limited by nutrient availability. Although the model estimates differ on the potential size (126 to 461 Pg C) of the future terrestrial sink caused by CO2 fertilization, the results of the four models suggest that natural terrestrial ecosystems will have a limited capacity to act as a sink of atmospheric CO2 in the future as a result of physiological constraints and nutrient constraints on NPP. All the spatially explicit models estimate a carbon sink in both tropical and northern temperate regions, but the strength of these sinks varies over time. Differences in the simulated response of terrestrial ecosystems to CO2 fertilization among the models in this intercomparison study reflect the fact that the models have highlighted different aspects of the effect of CO2 fertilization on carbon dynamics of natural terrestrial ecosystems including feedback mechanisms. As interactions with nitrogen fertilization, climate change and forest regrowth may play an important role in simulating the response of terrestrial ecosystems to CO2 fertilization, these factors should be included in future analyses. Improvements in spatially explicit data sets, whole-ecosystems experiments and the availability of net carbon exchange measurements across the globe will also help to improve future evaluations of the role of CO2 fertilization on terrestrial carbon storage.

Constraining terrestrial ecosystem CO2 fluxes by integrating models of biogeochemistry and atmospheric transport and data of surface carbon fluxes and atmospheric CO2 concentrations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Q.; Zhuang, Q.; Henze, D.; Bowman, K.; Chen, M.; Liu, Y.; He, Y.; Matsueda, H.; Machida, T.; Sawa, Y.; Oechel, W.

2014-09-01

Regional net carbon fluxes of terrestrial ecosystems could be estimated with either biogeochemistry models by assimilating surface carbon flux measurements or atmospheric CO2 inversions by assimilating observations of atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Here we combine the ecosystem biogeochemistry modeling and atmospheric CO2 inverse modeling to investigate the magnitude and spatial distribution of the terrestrial ecosystem CO2 sources and sinks. First, we constrain a terrestrial ecosystem model (TEM) at site level by assimilating the observed net ecosystem production (NEP) for various plant functional types. We find that the uncertainties of model parameters are reduced up to 90% and model predictability is greatly improved for all the plant functional types (coefficients of determination are enhanced up to 0.73). We then extrapolate the model to a global scale at a 0.5° × 0.5° resolution to estimate the large-scale terrestrial ecosystem CO2 fluxes, which serve as prior for atmospheric CO2 inversion. Second, we constrain the large-scale terrestrial CO2 fluxes by assimilating the GLOBALVIEW-CO2 and mid-tropospheric CO2 retrievals from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) into an atmospheric transport model (GEOS-Chem). The transport inversion estimates that: (1) the annual terrestrial ecosystem carbon sink in 2003 is -2.47 Pg C yr-1, which agrees reasonably well with the most recent inter-comparison studies of CO2 inversions (-2.82 Pg C yr-1); (2) North America temperate, Europe and Eurasia temperate regions act as major terrestrial carbon sinks; and (3) The posterior transport model is able to reasonably reproduce the atmospheric CO2 concentrations, which are validated against Comprehensive Observation Network for TRace gases by AIrLiner (CONTRAIL) CO2 concentration data. This study indicates that biogeochemistry modeling or atmospheric transport and inverse modeling alone might not be able to well quantify regional terrestrial carbon fluxes. However, combining the two modeling approaches and assimilating data of surface carbon flux as well as atmospheric CO2 mixing ratios might significantly improve the quantification of terrestrial carbon fluxes.

Invasive species: an increasing threat to marine ecosystems under climate change?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Artioli, Yuri; Galienne, Chris; Holt, Jason; Wakelin, Sarah; Butenschön, Momme; Schrum, Corinna; Daewel, Ute; Pushpadas, Dhania; Cannaby, Heather; Salihoglu, Baris; Zavatarelli, Marco; Clementi, Emanuela; Olenin, Sergej; Allen, Icarus

2013-04-01

Planktonic Non-Indigenous Species (NIS) are a potential threat to marine ecosystems: a successful invasion of such organisms can alter significantly the ecosystem structure with shift in species composition that can affect different levels of the trophic network and also with local extinction of native species in the more extreme cases. Such changes will also impact some ecosystem functions like primary and secondary production or nutrient cycling, and services, like fishery, aquaculture or carbon sequestration. Understanding how climate change influences the susceptibility of a marine ecosystem to invasion is challenging as the success and the impact of an invasion depend on many different factors all tightly interconnected (e.g. time of the invasion, location, state of the ecosystem…). Here we present DivERSEM, a new version of the biogeochemical model ERSEM modified in order to account for phytoplankton diversity. With such a model, we are able to simulate invasion from phytoplankton NIS, to assess the likelihood of success of such an invasion and to estimate the potential impact on ecosystem structure, using indicator like the Biopollution index. In the MEECE project (www.meece.eu), the model has been coupled to a 1D water column model (GOTM) in two different climate scenarios (present day and the IPCC SRES A1B scenario for 2100) in 4 different European shelf seas (North Sea, Baltic Sea, Black Sea and Adriatic Sea). The model has been forced with atmospheric data coming from the IPSL climate model, and nutrient concentration extracted from a set of 3D biogeochemical models running under the same climate scenario. The response of the ecosystem susceptibility to invasion to climate change has been analysed comparing the successfulness of invasions in the two time slices and its impact on community structure and ecosystem functions. At the same time, the comparison among the different basins allowed to highlight some of the characteristics that make the ecosystems more vulnerable to NIS.

Biogeochemical cycling in terrestrial ecosystems - Modeling, measurement, and remote sensing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Peterson, D. L.; Matson, P. A.; Lawless, J. G.; Aber, J. D.; Vitousek, P. M.

1985-01-01

The use of modeling, remote sensing, and measurements to characterize the pathways and to measure the rate of biogeochemical cycling in forest ecosystems is described. The application of the process-level model to predict processes in intact forests and ecosystems response to disturbance is examined. The selection of research areas from contrasting climate regimes and sites having a fertility gradient in that regime is discussed, and the sites studied are listed. The use of remote sensing in determining leaf area index and canopy biochemistry is analyzed. Nitrous oxide emission is investigated by using a gas measurement instrument. Future research projects, which include studying the influence of changes on nutrient cycling in ecosystems and the effect of pollutants on the ecosystems, are discussed.

Transient traceability analysis of land carbon storage dynamics: procedures and its application to two forest ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, L.; Shi, Z.; Xia, J.; Liang, J.; Lu, X.; Wang, Y.; Luo, Y.

2017-12-01

Uptake of anthropogenically emitted carbon (C) dioxide by terrestrial ecosystem is critical for determining future climate. However, Earth system models project large uncertainties in future C storage. To help identify sources of uncertainties in model predictions, this study develops a transient traceability framework to trace components of C storage dynamics. Transient C storage (X) can be decomposed into two components, C storage capacity (Xc) and C storage potential (Xp). Xc is the maximum C amount that an ecosystem can potentially store and Xp represents the internal capacity of an ecosystem to equilibrate C input and output for a network of pools. Xc is co-determined by net primary production (NPP) and residence time (𝜏N), with the latter being determined by allocation coefficients, transfer coefficients, environmental scalar, and exit rate. Xp is the product of redistribution matrix (𝜏ch) and net ecosystem exchange. We applied this framework to two contrasting ecosystems, Duke Forest and Harvard Forest with an ecosystem model. This framework helps identify the mechanisms underlying the responses of carbon cycling in the two forests to climate change. The temporal trajectories of X are similar between the two ecosystems. Using this framework, we found that two different mechanisms leading to the similar trajectory. This framework has potential to reveal mechanisms behind transient C storage in response to various global change factors. It can also identify sources of uncertainties in predicted transient C storage across models and can therefore be useful for model intercomparison.

Characterizing the performance of ecosystem models across time scales: A spectral analysis of the North American Carbon Program site-level synthesis

Treesearch

Michael C. Dietze; Rodrigo Vargas; Andrew D. Richardson; Paul C. Stoy; Alan G. Barr; Ryan S. Anderson; M. Altaf Arain; Ian T. Baker; T. Andrew Black; Jing M. Chen; Philippe Ciais; Lawrence B. Flanagan; Christopher M. Gough; Robert F. Grant; David Hollinger; R. Cesar Izaurralde; Christopher J. Kucharik; Peter Lafleur; Shugang Liu; Erandathie Lokupitiya; Yiqi Luo; J. William Munger; Changhui Peng; Benjamin Poulter; David T. Price; Daniel M. Ricciuto; William J. Riley; Alok Kumar Sahoo; Kevin Schaefer; Andrew E. Suyker; Hanqin Tian; Christina Tonitto; Hans Verbeeck; Shashi B. Verma; Weifeng Wang; Ensheng Weng

2011-01-01

Ecosystem models are important tools for diagnosing the carbon cycle and projecting its behavior across space and time. Despite the fact that ecosystems respond to drivers at multiple time scales, most assessments of model performance do not discriminate different time scales. Spectral methods, such as wavelet analyses, present an alternative approach that enables the...

A methodology for evaluation of parent-mutant competition using a generalized non-linear ecosystem model

Treesearch

Raymond L. Czaplewski

1973-01-01

A generalized, non-linear population dynamics model of an ecosystem is used to investigate the direction of selective pressures upon a mutant by studying the competition between parent and mutant populations. The model has the advantages of considering selection as operating on the phenotype, of retaining the interaction of the mutant population with the ecosystem as a...

Modeling Population and Ecosystem Response to Sublethal Toxicant Exposure

DTIC Science & Technology

2000-09-30

Modeling Population and Ecosystem Response to Sublethal Toxicant Exposure Principal Investigator: Roger M. Nisbet Department of Ecology, Evolution...DATES COVERED 00-00-2000 to 00-00-2000 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Modeling Population and Ecosystem Response to Sublethal Toxicant Exposure 5a...those of real populations. We have also investigated how toxicants may affect the stability of the system. If the toxicant effect is primarily an

Modeling Population and Ecosystem Response to Sublethal Toxicant Exposure

DTIC Science & Technology

2001-09-30

mutualism utilized modified Lotka - Volterra (L-V) competition equations in which the sign of the interspecific interaction term was changed from...within complex communities and ecosystems. Prior to the current award, the PIs formulated and tested general dynamic energy budget models...Nisbet, 1998; chapter 7) make a convincing case that ecosystems do truly have dynamics that can be described by relatively simple, general , models

Incorporating historical ecosystem diversity into conservation planning efforts in grass and shrub ecosystems

Treesearch

Amy C. Ganguli; Johathan B. Haufler; Carolyn A. Mehl; Jimmie D. Chew

2011-01-01

Understanding historical ecosystem diversity and wildlife habitat quality can provide a useful reference for managing and restoring rangeland ecosystems. We characterized historical ecosystem diversity using available empirical data, expert opinion, and the spatially explicit vegetation dynamics model SIMPPLLE (SIMulating Vegetative Patterns and Processes at Landscape...

Predicting Trophic Interactions and Habitat Utilization in the California Current Ecosystem

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-09-30

in the California Current Ecosystem Jerome Fiechter UC Santa Cruz Institute of Marine Sciences 1156 High Street Santa Cruz, CA 95064 phone... Ecosystem (CCLME), the long-term goal of our modeling approach is to better understand and characterize biological “hotspots” (i.e., the aggregation of...multiple marine organisms over multiple trophic levels) off the U.S. west coast and in other regions where similar fully-coupled ecosystem models may

Invited OSU class lecture: An integrated eco-hydrologic modeling framework for assessing the effects of interacting stressors on multiple ecosystem services

EPA Science Inventory

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency recently established the Ecosystem Services Research Program to help formulate methods and models for conducting comprehensive risk assessments that quantify how multiple ecosystem services interact and respond in concert to environmental ...

An integrated eco-hydrologic modeling framework for assessing the effects of interacting stressors on forest ecosystem services - ESRP mtg

EPA Science Inventory

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency recently established the Ecosystem Services Research Program to help formulate methods and models for conducting comprehensive risk assessments that quantify how multiple ecosystem services interact and respond in concert to environmental ...

An integrated eco-hydrologic modeling framework for assessing the effects of interacting stressors on multiple ecosystem services - 4/27/10

EPA Science Inventory

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency recently established the Ecosystem Services Research Program to help formulate methods and models for conducting comprehensive risk assessments that quantify how multiple ecosystem services interact and respond in concert to environmental ...

MODELING MINERAL NITROGEN EXPORT FROM A FOREST TERRESTRIAL ECOSYSTEM TO STREAMS

EPA Science Inventory

Terrestrial ecosystems are major sources of N pollution to aquatic ecosystems. Predicting N export to streams is a critical goal of non-point source modeling. This study was conducted to assess the effect of terrestrial N cycling on stream N export using long-term monitoring da...

Study on the ecosystem construction of using ecopath model in inland waterway

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Junjie; Bai, Jing; Zhang, Lu; Wang, Ning; Shou, Youping

2018-04-01

In this paper, Ecopath with Ecosim 5.1 software is used to simulate the constructed water ecosystem of inland waterway. According to the characteristics of feeding relationship, the ecopath model of water ecosystem is divided into seven functional groups: phytoplankton, hydrophyte, zooplankton, herbivorous, omnivorous, polychaetes and detritus. By analyzing the important ecological parameters of the ecosystem, such as biomass, biomass / biomass, consumption / biomass, trophic level and ecological nutrient conversion efficiency, the software integrates the energy flow process of the ecosystem, the ratio of the total net primary production and the sum of all respiratory flows is 1.314, it’s indicating that the ecosystem is equilibrium. The research method of this paper can be widely used to evaluate the stability of the ecosystem of the domestic river.

Ecosystem Model Performance at Wetlands: Results from the North American Carbon Program Site Synthesis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sulman, B. N.; Desai, A. R.; Schroeder, N. M.; NACP Site Synthesis Participants

2011-12-01

Northern peatlands contain a significant fraction of the global carbon pool, and their responses to hydrological change are likely to be important factors in future carbon cycle-climate feedbacks. Global-scale carbon cycle modeling studies typically use general ecosystem models with coarse spatial resolution, often without peatland-specific processes. Here, seven ecosystem models were used to simulate CO2 fluxes at three field sites in Canada and the northern United States, including two nutrient-rich fens and one nutrient-poor, sphagnum-dominated bog, from 2002-2006. Flux residuals (simulated - observed) were positively correlated with measured water table for both gross ecosystem productivity (GEP) and ecosystem respiration (ER) at the two fen sites for all models, and were positively correlated with water table at the bog site for the majority of models. Modeled diurnal cycles at fen sites agreed well with eddy covariance measurements overall. Eddy covariance GEP and ER were higher during dry periods than during wet periods, while model results predicted either the opposite relationship or no significant difference. At the bog site, eddy covariance GEP had no significant dependence on water table, while models predicted higher GEP during wet periods. All models significantly over-estimated GEP at the bog site, and all but one over-estimated ER at the bog site. Carbon cycle models in peatland-rich regions could be improved by incorporating better models or measurements of hydrology and by inhibiting GEP and ER rates under saturated conditions. Bogs and fens likely require distinct treatments in ecosystem models due to differences in nutrients, peat properties, and plant communities.

Modelling ecosystem service flows under uncertainty with stochiastic SPAN

USGS Publications Warehouse

Johnson, Gary W.; Snapp, Robert R.; Villa, Ferdinando; Bagstad, Kenneth J.

2012-01-01

Ecosystem service models are increasingly in demand for decision making. However, the data required to run these models are often patchy, missing, outdated, or untrustworthy. Further, communication of data and model uncertainty to decision makers is often either absent or unintuitive. In this work, we introduce a systematic approach to addressing both the data gap and the difficulty in communicating uncertainty through a stochastic adaptation of the Service Path Attribution Networks (SPAN) framework. The SPAN formalism assesses ecosystem services through a set of up to 16 maps, which characterize the services in a study area in terms of flow pathways between ecosystems and human beneficiaries. Although the SPAN algorithms were originally defined deterministically, we present them here in a stochastic framework which combines probabilistic input data with a stochastic transport model in order to generate probabilistic spatial outputs. This enables a novel feature among ecosystem service models: the ability to spatially visualize uncertainty in the model results. The stochastic SPAN model can analyze areas where data limitations are prohibitive for deterministic models. Greater uncertainty in the model inputs (including missing data) should lead to greater uncertainty expressed in the model’s output distributions. By using Bayesian belief networks to fill data gaps and expert-provided trust assignments to augment untrustworthy or outdated information, we can account for uncertainty in input data, producing a model that is still able to run and provide information where strictly deterministic models could not. Taken together, these attributes enable more robust and intuitive modelling of ecosystem services under uncertainty.

A framework for the resilience of seagrass ecosystems.

PubMed

Unsworth, Richard K F; Collier, Catherine J; Waycott, Michelle; Mckenzie, Len J; Cullen-Unsworth, Leanne C

2015-11-15

Seagrass ecosystems represent a global marine resource that is declining across its range. To halt degradation and promote recovery over large scales, management requires a radical change in emphasis and application that seeks to enhance seagrass ecosystem resilience. In this review we examine how the resilience of seagrass ecosystems is becoming compromised by a range of local to global stressors, resulting in ecological regime shifts that undermine the long-term viability of these productive ecosystems. To examine regime shifts and the management actions that can influence this phenomenon we present a conceptual model of resilience in seagrass ecosystems. The model is founded on a series of features and modifiers that act as interacting influences upon seagrass ecosystem resilience. Improved understanding and appreciation of the factors and modifiers that govern resilience in seagrass ecosystems can be utilised to support much needed evidence based management of a vital natural resource. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Optimal advanced credit releases in ecosystem service markets.

PubMed

BenDor, Todd K; Guo, Tianshu; Yates, Andrew J

2014-03-01

Ecosystem service markets are popular policy tools for ecosystem protection. Advanced credit releases are an important factor affecting the supply side of ecosystem markets. Under an advanced credit release policy, regulators give ecosystem suppliers a fraction of the total ecosystem credits generated by a restoration project before it is verified that the project actually achieves the required ecological thresholds. In spite of their prominent role in ecosystem markets, there is virtually no regulatory or research literature on the proper design of advanced credit release policies. Using U.S. aquatic ecosystem markets as an example, we develop a principal-agent model of the behavior of regulators and wetland/stream mitigation bankers to determine and explore the optimal degree of advance credit release. The model highlights the tension between regulators' desire to induce market participation, while at the same time ensuring that bankers successfully complete ecological restoration. Our findings suggest several simple guidelines for strengthening advanced credit release policy.

Optimal Advanced Credit Releases in Ecosystem Service Markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

BenDor, Todd K.; Guo, Tianshu; Yates, Andrew J.

2014-03-01

Ecosystem service markets are popular policy tools for ecosystem protection. Advanced credit releases are an important factor affecting the supply side of ecosystem markets. Under an advanced credit release policy, regulators give ecosystem suppliers a fraction of the total ecosystem credits generated by a restoration project before it is verified that the project actually achieves the required ecological thresholds. In spite of their prominent role in ecosystem markets, there is virtually no regulatory or research literature on the proper design of advanced credit release policies. Using U.S. aquatic ecosystem markets as an example, we develop a principal-agent model of the behavior of regulators and wetland/stream mitigation bankers to determine and explore the optimal degree of advance credit release. The model highlights the tension between regulators' desire to induce market participation, while at the same time ensuring that bankers successfully complete ecological restoration. Our findings suggest several simple guidelines for strengthening advanced credit release policy.

Modeling Hawaiian ecosystem degradation due to invasive plants under current and future climates

USGS Publications Warehouse

Vorsino, Adam E.; Fortini, Lucas B.; Amidon, Fred A.; Miller, Stephen E.; Jacobi, James D.; Price, Jonathan P.; `Ohukani`ohi`a Gon, Sam; Koob, Gregory A.

2014-01-01

Occupation of native ecosystems by invasive plant species alters their structure and/or function. In Hawaii, a subset of introduced plants is regarded as extremely harmful due to competitive ability, ecosystem modification, and biogeochemical habitat degradation. By controlling this subset of highly invasive ecosystem modifiers, conservation managers could significantly reduce native ecosystem degradation. To assess the invasibility of vulnerable native ecosystems, we selected a proxy subset of these invasive plants and developed robust ensemble species distribution models to define their respective potential distributions. The combinations of all species models using both binary and continuous habitat suitability projections resulted in estimates of species richness and diversity that were subsequently used to define an invasibility metric. The invasibility metric was defined from species distribution models with 0.8; True Skill Statistic >0.75) as evaluated per species. Invasibility was further projected onto a 2100 Hawaii regional climate change scenario to assess the change in potential habitat degradation. The distribution defined by the invasibility metric delineates areas of known and potential invasibility under current climate conditions and, when projected into the future, estimates potential reductions in native ecosystem extent due to climate-driven invasive incursion. We have provided the code used to develop these metrics to facilitate their wider use (Code S1). This work will help determine the vulnerability of native-dominated ecosystems to the combined threats of climate change and invasive species, and thus help prioritize ecosystem and species management actions.

Divergent patterns of experimental and model derived variables of tundra ecosystem carbon exchange in response to arctic warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schaedel, C.; Koven, C.; Celis, G.; Hutchings, J.; Lawrence, D. M.; Mauritz, M.; Pegoraro, E.; Salmon, V. G.; Taylor, M.; Wieder, W. R.; Schuur, E.

2017-12-01

Warming over the Arctic in the last decades has been twice as high as for the rest of the globe and has exposed large amounts of organic carbon to microbial decomposition in permafrost ecosystems. Continued warming and associated changes in soil moisture conditions not only lead to enhanced microbial decomposition from permafrost soil but also enhanced plant carbon uptake. Both processes impact the overall contribution of permafrost carbon dynamics to the global carbon cycle, yet field and modeling studies show large uncertainties in regard to both uptake and release mechanisms. Here, we compare variables associated with ecosystem carbon exchange (GPP: gross primary production; Reco: ecosystem respiration; and NEE: net ecosystem exchange) from eight years of experimental soil warming in moist acidic tundra with the same variables derived from an experimental model (Community Land Model version 4.5: CLM4.5) that simulates the same degree of arctic warming. While soil temperatures and thaw depths exhibited comparable increases with warming between field and model variables, carbon exchange related parameters showed divergent patterns. In the field non-linear responses to experimentally induced permafrost thaw were observed in GPP, Reco, and NEE. Indirect effects of continued soil warming and thaw created changes in soil moisture conditions causing ground surface subsidence and suppressing ecosystem carbon exchange over time. In contrast, the model predicted linear increases in GPP, Reco, and NEE with every year of warming turning the ecosystem into a net annual carbon sink. The field experiment revealed the importance of hydrology in carbon flux responses to permafrost thaw, a complexity that the model may fail to predict. Further parameterization of variables that drive GPP, Reco, and NEE in the model will help to inform and refine future model development.

When 1+1 can be >2: Uncertainties compound when simulating climate, fisheries and marine ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Evans, Karen; Brown, Jaclyn N.; Sen Gupta, Alex; Nicol, Simon J.; Hoyle, Simon; Matear, Richard; Arrizabalaga, Haritz

2015-03-01

Multi-disciplinary approaches that combine oceanographic, biogeochemical, ecosystem, fisheries population and socio-economic models are vital tools for modelling whole ecosystems. Interpreting the outputs from such complex models requires an appreciation of the many different types of modelling frameworks being used and their associated limitations and uncertainties. Both users and developers of particular model components will often have little involvement or understanding of other components within such modelling frameworks. Failure to recognise limitations and uncertainties associated with components and how these uncertainties might propagate throughout modelling frameworks can potentially result in poor advice for resource management. Unfortunately, many of the current integrative frameworks do not propagate the uncertainties of their constituent parts. In this review, we outline the major components of a generic whole of ecosystem modelling framework incorporating the external pressures of climate and fishing. We discuss the limitations and uncertainties associated with each component of such a modelling system, along with key research gaps. Major uncertainties in modelling frameworks are broadly categorised into those associated with (i) deficient knowledge in the interactions of climate and ocean dynamics with marine organisms and ecosystems; (ii) lack of observations to assess and advance modelling efforts and (iii) an inability to predict with confidence natural ecosystem variability and longer term changes as a result of external drivers (e.g. greenhouse gases, fishing effort) and the consequences for marine ecosystems. As a result of these uncertainties and intrinsic differences in the structure and parameterisation of models, users are faced with considerable challenges associated with making appropriate choices on which models to use. We suggest research directions required to address these uncertainties, and caution against overconfident predictions. Understanding the full impact of uncertainty makes it clear that full comprehension and robust certainty about the systems themselves are not feasible. A key research direction is the development of management systems that are robust to this unavoidable uncertainty.

Monitoring and modeling for investigating driver/pressure-state/impact relationships in coastal ecosystems: Examples from the Lagoon of Venice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pastres, Roberto; Solidoro, Cosimo

2012-01-01

In this paper, we show how the integration of monitoring data and mathematical model can generate valuable information by using a few examples taken from a well studied but complex ecosystem, namely the Lagoon of Venice. We will focus on three key issues, which are of concern also for many other coastal ecosystems, namely: (1) Nitrogen and Phosphorus annual budgets; (2) estimation of Net Ecosystem Metabolism and early warnings for anoxic events; (3) assessment of ecosystem status. The results highlight the importance of framing monitoring activities within the "DPSIR" conceptual model, thus going far beyond the monitoring of major biogeochemical variables and including: (1) the estimation of the fluxes of the main constituents at the boundaries; (2) the use of appropriate mathematical models. These tools can provide quantitative links among Pressures and State/Impacts, thus enabling decision makers and stakeholders to evaluate the effects of alternative management scenarios.

Revisiting the choice of the driving temperature for eddy covariance CO2 flux partitioning

PubMed Central

Wohlfahrt, Georg; Galvagno, Marta

2017-01-01

So-called CO2 flux partitioning algorithms are widely used to partition the net ecosystem CO2 exchange into the two component fluxes, gross primary productivity and ecosystem respiration. Common CO2 flux partitioning algorithms conceptualize ecosystem respiration to originate from a single source, requiring the choice of a corresponding driving temperature. Using a conceptual dual-source respiration model, consisting of an above- and a below-ground respiration source each driven by a corresponding temperature, we demonstrate that the typical phase shift between air and soil temperature gives rise to a hysteresis relationship between ecosystem respiration and temperature. The hysteresis proceeds in a clockwise fashion if soil temperature is used to drive ecosystem respiration, while a counter-clockwise response is observed when ecosystem respiration is related to air temperature. As a consequence, nighttime ecosystem respiration is smaller than daytime ecosystem respiration when referenced to soil temperature, while the reverse is true for air temperature. We confirm these qualitative modelling results using measurements of day and night ecosystem respiration made with opaque chambers in a short-statured mountain grassland. Inferring daytime from nighttime ecosystem respiration or vice versa, as attempted by CO2 flux partitioning algorithms, using a single-source respiration model is thus an oversimplification resulting in biased estimates of ecosystem respiration. We discuss the likely magnitude of the bias, options for minimizing it and conclude by emphasizing that the systematic uncertainty of gross primary productivity and ecosystem respiration inferred through CO2 flux partitioning needs to be better quantified and reported. PMID:28439145

Linkages between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bretherton, Francis; Dickinson, Robert E.; Fung, Inez; Moore, Berrien, III; Prather, Michael; Running, Steven W.; Tiessen, Holm

1992-01-01

The primary research issue in understanding the role of terrestrial ecosystems in global change is analyzing the coupling between processes with vastly differing rates of change, from photosynthesis to community change. Representing this coupling in models is the central challenge to modeling the terrestrial biosphere as part of the earth system. Terrestrial ecosystems participate in climate and in the biogeochemical cycles on several temporal scales. Some of the carbon fixed by photosynthesis is incorporated into plant tissue and is delayed from returning to the atmosphere until it is oxidized by decomposition or fire. This slower (i.e., days to months) carbon loop through the terrestrial component of the carbon cycle, which is matched by cycles of nutrients required by plants and decomposers, affects the increasing trend in atmospheric CO2 concentration and imposes a seasonal cycle on that trend. Moreover, this cycle includes key controls over biogenic trace gas production. The structure of terrestrial ecosystems, which responds on even longer time scales (annual to century), is the integrated response to the biogeochemical and environmental constraints that develop over the intermediate time scale. The loop is closed back to the climate system since it is the structure of ecosystems, including species composition, that sets the terrestrial boundary condition in the climate system through modification of surface roughness, albedo, and, to a great extent, latent heat exchange. These separate temporal scales contain explicit feedback loops which may modify ecosystem dynamics and linkages between ecosystems and the atmosphere. The long-term change in climate, resulting from increased atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (e.g., CO2, CH4, and nitrous oxide (N2O)) will further modify the global environment and potentially induce further ecosystem change. Modeling these interactions requires coupling successional models to biogeochemical models to physiological models that describe the exchange of water, energy, and biogenic trace gases between the vegetation and the atmosphere at fine time scales. There does not appear to be any obvious way to allow direct reciprocal coupling of atmospheric general circulation models (GCM's), which inherently run with fine time steps, to ecosystem or successional models, which have coarse temporal resolution, without the interposition of physiological canopy models. This is equally true for biogeochemical models of the exchange of carbon dioxide and trace gases. This coupling across time scales is nontrivial and sets the focus for the modeling strategy.

Evaluating Energy Flows Through Jellyfish and Forage Fish and the Effects of Fishing on the Northern Humboldt Current Ecosystem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chiaverano, L.; Robinson, K. L.; Ruzicka, J.; Quiñones, J.; Tam, J.; Acha, M.; Graham, W. M.; Brodeur, R.; Decker, M. B.; Hernandez, F., Jr.; Leaf, R.; Mianzan, H.; Uye, S. I.

2016-02-01

Increases in the frequency of jellyfish mass occurrences in a number of coastal areas around the globe have intensified concerns that some ecosystems are becoming "jellyfish-dominated". Gelatinous planktivores not only compete with forage fish for food, but also feed on fish eggs and larvae. When jellyfish abundance is high, the fraction of the energy and the efficiency at which it is transferred upwards in the food web are reduced compared with times when fish are dominant. Hence, ecosystems supporting major forage fish fisheries are the most likely to experience fish-to-jellyfish shifts due to the harvest pressure on mid-trophic planktivores. Although forage fish-jellyfish replacement cycles have been detected in recent decades in some productive, coastal ecosystems (e.g. Gulf of Mexico, Northern California Current), jellyfish are typically not included in ecosystem-based fisheries management (EBFM) production models. Here we explored the roles of jellyfish and forage fish as trophic energy transfer pathways to higher trophic levels in the Northern Humboldt Current (NHC) ecosystem, one of the most productive ecosystems in the world. A trophic network model with 33 functional groups was developed using ECOPATH and transformed to an end-to-end model using ECOTRAN techniques to map food web energy flows. Predicted, relative changes in functional group productivity were analyzed in simulations with varying forage fish consumption rates, jellyfish consumption rates, and forage fish harvest rates in a suite of static, alternative-energy-demand scenarios. Our modeling efforts will not only improve EBFM of forage fish and their predators in the NHC ecosystem, but also increase our understanding of trophic interactions between forage fish and large jellyfish, an important, but overlooked component in most ecosystem models to date.

Model ecosystem evaluation of the environmental impacts of the veterinary drugs phenothiazine, sulfamethazine, clopidol, and diethylstilbestrol.

PubMed Central

Coats, J R; Metcalf, R L; Lu, P Y; Brown, D D; Williams, J F; Hansen, L G

1976-01-01

Four veterinary drugs of dissimilar chemical structures were evaluated for environmental stability and penchant for bioaccumulation. The techniques used were (1) a model aquatic ecosystem (3 days) and (2) a model feedlot ecosystem (33 days) in which the drugs were introduced via the excreta of chicks or mice. The model feedlot ecosystem was supported by metabolism cage studies to determine the amount and the form of the drug excreted by the chicks or mice. Considerable quantities of all the drugs were excreted intact or as environmentally short-lived conjugates. Diethylstilbestrol (DES) and Clopidol were the most persistent molecules, but only DES bioaccumulated to any appreciable degree. Phenothiazine was very biodegradable; sulfamethazine was relatively biodegradable and only accumulated in the organisms to very low levels. Data from the aquatic model ecosystem demonstrated a good correlation between the partition coefficients of the drugs and their accumulation in the fish. Images FIGURE 1. PMID:1037611

A framework for predicting impacts on ecosystem services from (sub)organismal responses to chemicals.

PubMed

Forbes, Valery E; Salice, Chris J; Birnir, Bjorn; Bruins, Randy J F; Calow, Peter; Ducrot, Virginie; Galic, Nika; Garber, Kristina; Harvey, Bret C; Jager, Henriette; Kanarek, Andrew; Pastorok, Robert; Railsback, Steve F; Rebarber, Richard; Thorbek, Pernille

2017-04-01

Protection of ecosystem services is increasingly emphasized as a risk-assessment goal, but there are wide gaps between current ecological risk-assessment endpoints and potential effects on services provided by ecosystems. The authors present a framework that links common ecotoxicological endpoints to chemical impacts on populations and communities and the ecosystem services that they provide. This framework builds on considerable advances in mechanistic effects models designed to span multiple levels of biological organization and account for various types of biological interactions and feedbacks. For illustration, the authors introduce 2 case studies that employ well-developed and validated mechanistic effects models: the inSTREAM individual-based model for fish populations and the AQUATOX ecosystem model. They also show how dynamic energy budget theory can provide a common currency for interpreting organism-level toxicity. They suggest that a framework based on mechanistic models that predict impacts on ecosystem services resulting from chemical exposure, combined with economic valuation, can provide a useful approach for informing environmental management. The authors highlight the potential benefits of using this framework as well as the challenges that will need to be addressed in future work. Environ Toxicol Chem 2017;36:845-859. © 2017 SETAC. © 2017 SETAC.

An online database for informing ecological network models: http://kelpforest.ucsc.edu.

PubMed

Beas-Luna, Rodrigo; Novak, Mark; Carr, Mark H; Tinker, Martin T; Black, August; Caselle, Jennifer E; Hoban, Michael; Malone, Dan; Iles, Alison

2014-01-01

Ecological network models and analyses are recognized as valuable tools for understanding the dynamics and resiliency of ecosystems, and for informing ecosystem-based approaches to management. However, few databases exist that can provide the life history, demographic and species interaction information necessary to parameterize ecological network models. Faced with the difficulty of synthesizing the information required to construct models for kelp forest ecosystems along the West Coast of North America, we developed an online database (http://kelpforest.ucsc.edu/) to facilitate the collation and dissemination of such information. Many of the database's attributes are novel yet the structure is applicable and adaptable to other ecosystem modeling efforts. Information for each taxonomic unit includes stage-specific life history, demography, and body-size allometries. Species interactions include trophic, competitive, facilitative, and parasitic forms. Each data entry is temporally and spatially explicit. The online data entry interface allows researchers anywhere to contribute and access information. Quality control is facilitated by attributing each entry to unique contributor identities and source citations. The database has proven useful as an archive of species and ecosystem-specific information in the development of several ecological network models, for informing management actions, and for education purposes (e.g., undergraduate and graduate training). To facilitate adaptation of the database by other researches for other ecosystems, the code and technical details on how to customize this database and apply it to other ecosystems are freely available and located at the following link (https://github.com/kelpforest-cameo/databaseui).

An Online Database for Informing Ecological Network Models: http://kelpforest.ucsc.edu

PubMed Central

Beas-Luna, Rodrigo; Novak, Mark; Carr, Mark H.; Tinker, Martin T.; Black, August; Caselle, Jennifer E.; Hoban, Michael; Malone, Dan; Iles, Alison

2014-01-01

Ecological network models and analyses are recognized as valuable tools for understanding the dynamics and resiliency of ecosystems, and for informing ecosystem-based approaches to management. However, few databases exist that can provide the life history, demographic and species interaction information necessary to parameterize ecological network models. Faced with the difficulty of synthesizing the information required to construct models for kelp forest ecosystems along the West Coast of North America, we developed an online database (http://kelpforest.ucsc.edu/) to facilitate the collation and dissemination of such information. Many of the database's attributes are novel yet the structure is applicable and adaptable to other ecosystem modeling efforts. Information for each taxonomic unit includes stage-specific life history, demography, and body-size allometries. Species interactions include trophic, competitive, facilitative, and parasitic forms. Each data entry is temporally and spatially explicit. The online data entry interface allows researchers anywhere to contribute and access information. Quality control is facilitated by attributing each entry to unique contributor identities and source citations. The database has proven useful as an archive of species and ecosystem-specific information in the development of several ecological network models, for informing management actions, and for education purposes (e.g., undergraduate and graduate training). To facilitate adaptation of the database by other researches for other ecosystems, the code and technical details on how to customize this database and apply it to other ecosystems are freely available and located at the following link (https://github.com/kelpforest-cameo/databaseui). PMID:25343723

Development of the BIOME-BGC model for the simulation of managed Moso bamboo forest ecosystems.

PubMed

Mao, Fangjie; Li, Pingheng; Zhou, Guomo; Du, Huaqiang; Xu, Xiaojun; Shi, Yongjun; Mo, Lufeng; Zhou, Yufeng; Tu, Guoqing

2016-05-01

Numerical models are the most appropriate instrument for the analysis of the carbon balance of terrestrial ecosystems and their interactions with changing environmental conditions. The process-based model BIOME-BGC is widely used in simulation of carbon balance within vegetation, litter and soil of unmanaged ecosystems. For Moso bamboo forests, however, simulations with BIOME-BGC are inaccurate in terms of the growing season and the carbon allocation, due to the oversimplified representation of phenology. Our aim was to improve the applicability of BIOME-BGC for managed Moso bamboo forest ecosystem by implementing several new modules, including phenology, carbon allocation, and management. Instead of the simple phenology and carbon allocation representations in the original version, a periodic Moso bamboo phenology and carbon allocation module was implemented, which can handle the processes of Moso bamboo shooting and high growth during "on-year" and "off-year". Four management modules (digging bamboo shoots, selective cutting, obtruncation, fertilization) were integrated in order to quantify the functioning of managed ecosystems. The improved model was calibrated and validated using eddy covariance measurement data collected at a managed Moso bamboo forest site (Anji) during 2011-2013 years. As a result of these developments and calibrations, the performance of the model was substantially improved. Regarding the measured and modeled fluxes (gross primary production, total ecosystem respiration, net ecosystem exchange), relative errors were decreased by 42.23%, 103.02% and 18.67%, respectively. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An online database for informing ecological network models: http://kelpforest.ucsc.edu

USGS Publications Warehouse

Beas-Luna, Rodrigo; Tinker, M. Tim; Novak, Mark; Carr, Mark H.; Black, August; Caselle, Jennifer E.; Hoban, Michael; Malone, Dan; Iles, Alison C.

2014-01-01

Ecological network models and analyses are recognized as valuable tools for understanding the dynamics and resiliency of ecosystems, and for informing ecosystem-based approaches to management. However, few databases exist that can provide the life history, demographic and species interaction information necessary to parameterize ecological network models. Faced with the difficulty of synthesizing the information required to construct models for kelp forest ecosystems along the West Coast of North America, we developed an online database (http://kelpforest.ucsc.edu/) to facilitate the collation and dissemination of such information. Many of the database's attributes are novel yet the structure is applicable and adaptable to other ecosystem modeling efforts. Information for each taxonomic unit includes stage-specific life history, demography, and body-size allometries. Species interactions include trophic, competitive, facilitative, and parasitic forms. Each data entry is temporally and spatially explicit. The online data entry interface allows researchers anywhere to contribute and access information. Quality control is facilitated by attributing each entry to unique contributor identities and source citations. The database has proven useful as an archive of species and ecosystem-specific information in the development of several ecological network models, for informing management actions, and for education purposes (e.g., undergraduate and graduate training). To facilitate adaptation of the database by other researches for other ecosystems, the code and technical details on how to customize this database and apply it to other ecosystems are freely available and located at the following link (https://github.com/kelpforest-cameo/data​baseui).

A quantitative assessment of a terrestrial biosphere model's data needs across North American biomes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dietze, Michael C.; Serbin, Shawn P.; Davidson, Carl; Desai, Ankur R.; Feng, Xiaohui; Kelly, Ryan; Kooper, Rob; LeBauer, David; Mantooth, Joshua; McHenry, Kenton; Wang, Dan

2014-03-01

Terrestrial biosphere models are designed to synthesize our current understanding of how ecosystems function, test competing hypotheses of ecosystem function against observations, and predict responses to novel conditions such as those expected under climate change. Reducing uncertainties in such models can improve both basic scientific understanding and our predictive capacity, but rarely are ecosystem models employed in the design of field campaigns. We provide a synthesis of carbon cycle uncertainty analyses conducted using the Predictive Ecosystem Analyzer ecoinformatics workflow with the Ecosystem Demography model v2. This work is a synthesis of multiple projects, using Bayesian data assimilation techniques to incorporate field data and trait databases across temperate forests, grasslands, agriculture, short rotation forestry, boreal forests, and tundra. We report on a number of data needs that span a wide array of diverse biomes, such as the need for better constraint on growth respiration, mortality, stomatal conductance, and water uptake. We also identify data needs that are biome specific, such as photosynthetic quantum efficiency at high latitudes. We recommend that future data collection efforts balance the bias of past measurements toward aboveground processes in temperate biomes with the sensitivities of different processes as represented by ecosystem models. ©2014. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.

Biological data assimilation for parameter estimation of a phytoplankton functional type model for the western North Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoshiba, Yasuhiro; Hirata, Takafumi; Shigemitsu, Masahito; Nakano, Hideyuki; Hashioka, Taketo; Masuda, Yoshio; Yamanaka, Yasuhiro

2018-06-01

Ecosystem models are used to understand ecosystem dynamics and ocean biogeochemical cycles and require optimum physiological parameters to best represent biological behaviours. These physiological parameters are often tuned up empirically, while ecosystem models have evolved to increase the number of physiological parameters. We developed a three-dimensional (3-D) lower-trophic-level marine ecosystem model known as the Nitrogen, Silicon and Iron regulated Marine Ecosystem Model (NSI-MEM) and employed biological data assimilation using a micro-genetic algorithm to estimate 23 physiological parameters for two phytoplankton functional types in the western North Pacific. The estimation of the parameters was based on a one-dimensional simulation that referenced satellite data for constraining the physiological parameters. The 3-D NSI-MEM optimized by the data assimilation improved the timing of a modelled plankton bloom in the subarctic and subtropical regions compared to the model without data assimilation. Furthermore, the model was able to improve not only surface concentrations of phytoplankton but also their subsurface maximum concentrations. Our results showed that surface data assimilation of physiological parameters from two contrasting observatory stations benefits the representation of vertical plankton distribution in the western North Pacific.

EcoPAD, an interactive platform for near real-time ecological forecasting by assimilating data into model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

MA, S.; Huang, Y.; Stacy, M.; Jiang, J.; Sundi, N.; Ricciuto, D. M.; Hanson, P. J.; Luo, Y.; Saruta, V.

2017-12-01

Ecological forecasting is critical in various aspects of our coupled human-nature systems, such as disaster risk reduction, natural resource management and climate change mitigation. Novel advancements are in urgent need to deepen our understandings of ecosystem dynamics, boost the predictive capacity of ecology, and provide timely and effective information for decision-makers in a rapidly changing world. Our study presents a smart system - Ecological Platform for Assimilation of Data (EcoPAD) - which streamlines web request-response, data management, model execution, result storage and visualization. EcoPAD allows users to (i) estimate model parameters or state variables, (ii) quantify uncertainty of estimated parameters and projected states of ecosystems, (iii) evaluate model structures, (iv) assess sampling strategies, (v) conduct ecological forecasting, and (vi) detect ecosystem acclimation to climate change. One of the key innovations of the web-based EcoPAD is the automated near- or real-time forecasting of ecosystem dynamics with uncertainty fully quantified. The user friendly webpage enables non-modelers to explore their data for simulation and data assimilation. As a case study, we applied EcoPAD to the Spruce and Peatland Responses Under Climatic and Environmental Change Experiment (SPRUCE), a whole ecosystem warming and CO2 enrichment treatment project in the northern peatland, assimilated multiple data streams into a process based ecosystem model, enhanced timely feedback between modelers and experimenters, ultimately improved ecosystem forecasting and made better use of current knowledge. Built in a framework with flexible API, EcoPAD is easily portable and will benefit scientific communities, policy makers as well as the general public.

Linking land use change to recreational fishery valuation with a spatially explicit behavior model: A case study from Tampa Bay, FL USA

EPA Science Inventory

Drawing a link between habitat change and production and delivery of ecosystem services is a priority in coastal estuarine ecosystems. This link is needed to fully understand how human communities can influence ecosystem sustainability. Mechanistic modeling tools are highly fun...

Mechanistic models as a transferable framework for projecting effects of habitat change on production and delivery of ecosystem services

EPA Science Inventory

Drawing a link between habitat change and the production and delivery of ecosystem services is a priority in coastal estuarine ecosystems. Mechanistic modeling tools are highly functional for exploring this link because they allow for the synthesis of multiple ecological and beh...

Knowledge Management in Preserving Ecosystems: The Case of Seoul

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lee, Jeongseok

2009-01-01

This study explores the utility of employing knowledge management as a framework for understanding how public managers perform ecosystem management. It applies the grounded theory method to build a model. The model is generated by applying the concept of knowledge process to an investigation of how the urban ecosystem is publicly managed by civil…

A general predictive model for estimating monthly ecosystem evapotranspiration

Treesearch

Ge Sun; Karrin Alstad; Jiquan Chen; Shiping Chen; Chelcy R. Ford; al. et.

2011-01-01

Accurately quantifying evapotranspiration (ET) is essential for modelling regional-scale ecosystem water balances. This study assembled an ET data set estimated from eddy flux and sapflow measurements for 13 ecosystems across a large climatic and management gradient from the United States, China, and Australia. Our objectives were to determine the relationships among...

Using Ecosystem Experiments to Improve Vegetation Models

DOE PAGES

Medlyn, Belinda; Zaehle, S; DeKauwe, Martin G.; ...

2015-05-21

Ecosystem responses to rising CO2 concentrations are a major source of uncertainty in climate change projections. Data from ecosystem-scale Free-Air CO2 Enrichment (FACE) experiments provide a unique opportunity to reduce this uncertainty. The recent FACE Model–Data Synthesis project aimed to use the information gathered in two forest FACE experiments to assess and improve land ecosystem models. A new 'assumption-centred' model intercomparison approach was used, in which participating models were evaluated against experimental data based on the ways in which they represent key ecological processes. Identifying and evaluating the main assumptions caused differences among models, and the assumption-centered approach produced amore » clear roadmap for reducing model uncertainty. We explain this approach and summarize the resulting research agenda. We encourage the application of this approach in other model intercomparison projects to fundamentally improve predictive understanding of the Earth system.« less

Using an ecosystem service decision support tool to support ridge to reef management: An example of sediment reduction in west Maui, Hawaii

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Falinski, K. A.; Oleson, K.; Htun, H.; Kappel, C.; Lecky, J.; Rowe, C.; Selkoe, K.; White, C.

2016-12-01

Faced with anthropogenic stressors and declining coral reef states, managers concerned with restoration and resilience of coral reefs are increasingly recognizing the need to take a ridge-to-reef, ecosystem-based approach. An ecosystem services framing can help managers move towards these goals, helping to illustrate trade-offs and opportunities of management actions in terms of their impacts on society. We describe a research program building a spatial ecosystem services-based decision-support tool, and being applied to guide ridge-to-reef management in a NOAA priority site in West Maui. We use multiple modeling methods to link biophysical processes to ecosystem services and their spatial flows and social values in an integrating platform. Modeled services include water availability, sediment retention, nutrient retention and carbon sequestration on land. A coral reef ecosystem service model is under development to capture the linkages between terrestrial and coastal ecosystem services. Valuation studies are underway to quantify the implications for human well-being. The tool integrates techniques from decision science to facilitate decision making. We use the sediment retention model to illustrate the types of analyses the tool can support. The case study explores the tradeoffs between road rehabilitation costs and sediment export avoided. We couple the sediment and cost models with trade-off analysis to identify optimal distributed solutions that are most cost-effective in reducing erosion, and then use those models to estimate sediment exposure to coral reefs. We find that cooperation between land owners reveals opportunities for maximizing the benefits of fixing roads and minimizes costs. This research forms the building blocks of an ecosystem service decision support tool that we intend to continue to test and apply in other Pacific Island settings.

Modeling Global Biogenic Emission of Isoprene: Exploration of Model Drivers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Alexander, Susan E.; Potter, Christopher S.; Coughlan, Joseph C.; Klooster, Steven A.; Lerdau, Manuel T.; Chatfield, Robert B.; Peterson, David L. (Technical Monitor)

1996-01-01

Vegetation provides the major source of isoprene emission to the atmosphere. We present a modeling approach to estimate global biogenic isoprene emission. The isoprene flux model is linked to a process-based computer simulation model of biogenic trace-gas fluxes that operates on scales that link regional and global data sets and ecosystem nutrient transformations Isoprene emission estimates are determined from estimates of ecosystem specific biomass, emission factors, and algorithms based on light and temperature. Our approach differs from an existing modeling framework by including the process-based global model for terrestrial ecosystem production, satellite derived ecosystem classification, and isoprene emission measurements from a tropical deciduous forest. We explore the sensitivity of model estimates to input parameters. The resulting emission products from the global 1 degree x 1 degree coverage provided by the satellite datasets and the process model allow flux estimations across large spatial scales and enable direct linkage to atmospheric models of trace-gas transport and transformation.

PICUS v1.6 - enhancing the water cycle within a hybrid ecosystem model to assess the provision of drinking water in a changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schimmel, A.; Rammer, W.; Lexer, M. J.

2012-04-01

The PICUS model is a hybrid ecosystem model which is based on a 3D patch model and a physiological stand level production model. The model includes, among others, a submodel of bark beetle disturbances in Norway spruce and a management module allowing any silvicultural treatment to be mimicked realistically. It has been tested intensively for its ability to realistically reproduce tree growth and stand dynamics in complex structured mixed and mono-species temperate forest ecosystems. In several applications the models capacity to generate relevant forest related attributes which were subsequently fed into indicator systems to assess sustainable forest management under current and future climatic conditions has been proven. However, the relatively coarse monthly temporal resolution of the driving climate data as well as the process resolution of the major water relations within the simulated ecosystem hampered the inclusion of more detailed physiologically based assessments of drought conditions and water provisioning ecosystem services. In this contribution we present the improved model version PICUS v1.6 focusing on the newly implemented logic for the water cycle calculations. Transpiration, evaporation from leave surfaces and the forest floor, snow cover and snow melt as well as soil water dynamics in several soil horizons are covered. In enhancing the model overarching goal was to retain the large-scale applicability by keeping the input requirements to a minimum while improving the physiological foundation of water related ecosystem processes. The new model version is tested against empirical time series data. Future model applications are outlined.

Assimilation of Leaf and Canopy Spectroscopic Data to Improve the Representation of Vegetation Dynamics in Terrestrial Ecosystem Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Serbin, S. P.; Dietze, M.; Desai, A. R.; LeBauer, D.; Viskari, T.; Kooper, R.; McHenry, K. G.; Townsend, P. A.

2013-12-01

The ability to seamlessly integrate information on vegetation structure and function across a continuum of scales, from field to satellite observations, greatly enhances our ability to understand how terrestrial vegetation-atmosphere interactions change over time and in response to disturbances. In particular, terrestrial ecosystem models require detailed information on ecosystem states and canopy properties in order to properly simulate the fluxes of carbon (C), water and energy from the land to the atmosphere as well as address the vulnerability of ecosystems to environmental and other perturbations. Over the last several decades the amount of available data to constrain ecological predictions has increased substantially, resulting in a progressively data-rich era for global change research. In particular remote sensing data, specifically optical data (leaf and canopy), offers the potential for an important and direct data constraint on ecosystem model projections of C and energy fluxes. Here we highlight the utility of coupling information provided through the Ecosystem Spectral Information System (EcoSIS) with complex process models through the Predictive Ecosystem Analyzer (PEcAn; http://www.pecanproject.org/) eco-informatics framework as a means to improve the description of canopy optical properties, vegetation composition, and modeled radiation balance. We also present this an efficient approach for understanding and correcting implicit assumptions and model structural deficiencies. We first illustrate the challenges and issues in adequately characterizing ecosystem fluxes with the Ecosystem Demography model (ED2, Medvigy et al., 2009) due to improper parameterization of leaf and canopy properties, as well as assumptions describing radiative transfer within the canopy. ED2 is especially relevant to these efforts because it contains a sophisticated structure for scaling ecological processes across a range of spatial scales: from the tree-level (demography, physiology) to the distribution of stands across a landscape, which allows for the direct use of remotely sensed data at the appropriate spatial scale. A sensitivity analysis is employed within PEcAn to illustrate the influence of ED2 parameterizations on modeled C and energy fluxes for a northern temperate forest ecosystem as an example of the need for more detailed information on leaf and canopy optical properties. We then demonstrate a data assimilation approach to synthesize spectral data contained within EcoSIS in order to update model parameterizations across key vegetation plant functional types, as well as a means to update vegetation state information (i.e. composition, LAI) and improve the description of radiation transfer through model structural updates. A better understanding of the radiation balance of ecosystems will improve regional and global scale C and energy balance projections.

Tampa Bay Ecosystem Services Demonstration Project Website: Phase II

EPA Science Inventory

The Tampa Bay Ecosystem Services Demonstration Project models the impact of human development and natural stressors on the economic, aesthetic and cultural value of local ecosystems. By linking ecological structures, functions, and condition to the ecosystem services valued by h...

HUMAN-ECOSYSTEM INTERACTIONS: THE CASE OF MERCURY

EPA Science Inventory

Human and ecosystem exposure studies evaluate exposure of sensitive and vulnerable populations. We will discuss how ecosystem exposure modeling studies completed for input into the US Clean Air Mercury Rule (CAMR) to evaluate the response of aquatic ecosystems to changes in mercu...

Human - Ecosystem Interactions: The Case of Mercury

EPA Science Inventory

Human and ecosystem exposure studies evaluate exposure of sensitive and vulnerable populations. We will discuss how ecosystem exposure modeling studies completed for input into the US Clean Air Mercury Rule (CAMR) to evaluate the response of aquatic ecosystems to changes in mercu...

Disentangling the effects of climate variability and functional change on ecosystem carbon dynamics using semi-empirical modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, J.; van der Linden, L.; Lasslop, G.; Carvalhais, N.; Pilegaard, K.; Beier, C.; Ibrom, A.

2012-04-01

The ecosystem carbon balance is affected by both external climatic forcing (e.g. solar radiation, air temperature and humidity) and internal dynamics in the ecosystem functional properties (e.g. canopy structure, leaf photosynthetic capacity and carbohydrate reserve). In order to understand to what extent and at which temporal scale, climatic variability and functional changes regulated the interannual variation (IAV) in the net ecosystem exchange of CO2 (NEE), data-driven analysis and semi-empirical modelling (Lasslop et al. 2010) were performed based on a 13 year NEE record in a temperate deciduous forest (Pilegaard et al 2011, Wu et al. 2012). We found that the sensitivity of carbon fluxes to climatic variability was significantly higher at shorter than at longer time scales and changed seasonally. This implied that the changing distribution of climate anomalies during the vegetation period could have stronger impacts on future ecosystem carbon balances than changes in average climate. At the annual time scale, approximately 80% of the interannual variability in NEE was attributed to the variation in the model parameters, indicating the observed IAV in the carbon dynamics at the investigated site was dominated by changes in ecosystem functioning. In general this study showed the need for understanding the mechanisms of ecosystem functional change. The method can be applied at other sites to explore ecosystem behavior across different plant functional types and climate gradients. Incorporating ecosystem functional change into process based models will reduce the uncertainties in long-term predictions of ecosystem carbon balances in global climate change projections. Acknowledgements. This work was supported by the EU FP7 project CARBO-Extreme, the DTU Climate Centre and the Danish national project ECOCLIM (Danish Council for Strategic Research).

Using the CARDAMOM framework to retrieve global terrestrial ecosystem functioning properties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Exbrayat, Jean-François; Bloom, A. Anthony; Smallman, T. Luke; van der Velde, Ivar R.; Feng, Liang; Williams, Mathew

2016-04-01

Terrestrial ecosystems act as a sink for anthropogenic emissions of fossil-fuel and thereby partially offset the ongoing global warming. However, recent model benchmarking and intercomparison studies have highlighted the non-trivial uncertainties that exist in our understanding of key ecosystem properties like plant carbon allocation and residence times. It leads to worrisome differences in terrestrial carbon stocks simulated by Earth system models, and their evolution in a warming future. In this presentation we attempt to provide global insights on these properties by merging an ecosystem model with remotely-sensed global observations of leaf area and biomass through a data-assimilation system: the CARbon Data MOdel fraMework (CARDAMOM). CARDAMOM relies on a Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm to retrieve confidence intervals of model parameters that regulate ecosystem properties independently of any prior land-cover information. The MCMC method thereby enables an explicit representation of the uncertainty in land-atmosphere fluxes and the evolution of terrestrial carbon stocks through time. Global experiments are performed for the first decade of the 21st century using a 1°×1° spatial resolution. Relationships emerge globally between key ecosystem properties. For example, our analyses indicate that leaf lifespan and leaf mass per area are highly correlated. Furthermore, there exists a latitudinal gradient in allocation patterns: high latitude ecosystems allocate more carbon to photosynthetic carbon (leaves) while plants invest more carbon in their structural parts (wood and root) in the wet tropics. Overall, the spatial distribution of these ecosystem properties does not correspond to usual land-cover maps and are also partially correlated with disturbance regimes. For example, fire-prone ecosystems present statistically significant higher values of carbon use efficiency than less disturbed ecosystems experiencing similar climatic conditions. These results raise concerns on the suitability of the plant functional type paradigm for terrestrial carbon cycling.

Ecosystem services sustainability in the Mediterranean Sea: assessment of status and trends using multiple modelling approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liquete, Camino; Piroddi, Chiara; Macías, Diego; Druon, Jean-Noël; Zulian, Grazia

2016-09-01

Mediterranean ecosystems support important processes and functions that bring direct benefits to human society. Yet, marine ecosystem services are usually overlooked due to the challenges in identifying and quantifying them. This paper proposes the application of several biophysical and ecosystem modelling approaches to assess spatially and temporally the sustainable use and supply of selected marine ecosystem services. Such services include food provision, water purification, coastal protection, lifecycle maintenance and recreation, focusing on the Mediterranean region. Overall, our study found a higher number of decreasing than increasing trends in the natural capacity of the ecosystems to provide marine and coastal services, while in contrast the opposite was observed to be true for the realised flow of services to humans. Such a study paves the way towards an effective support for Blue Growth and the European maritime policies, although little attention is paid to the quantification of marine ecosystem services in this context. We identify a key challenge of integrating biophysical and socio-economic models as a necessary step to further this research.

Ecosystem services sustainability in the Mediterranean Sea: assessment of status and trends using multiple modelling approaches

PubMed Central

Liquete, Camino; Piroddi, Chiara; Macías, Diego; Druon, Jean-Noël; Zulian, Grazia

2016-01-01

Mediterranean ecosystems support important processes and functions that bring direct benefits to human society. Yet, marine ecosystem services are usually overlooked due to the challenges in identifying and quantifying them. This paper proposes the application of several biophysical and ecosystem modelling approaches to assess spatially and temporally the sustainable use and supply of selected marine ecosystem services. Such services include food provision, water purification, coastal protection, lifecycle maintenance and recreation, focusing on the Mediterranean region. Overall, our study found a higher number of decreasing than increasing trends in the natural capacity of the ecosystems to provide marine and coastal services, while in contrast the opposite was observed to be true for the realised flow of services to humans. Such a study paves the way towards an effective support for Blue Growth and the European maritime policies, although little attention is paid to the quantification of marine ecosystem services in this context. We identify a key challenge of integrating biophysical and socio-economic models as a necessary step to further this research. PMID:27686533

Reducing the uncertainty in the projection of the terrestrial carbon cycle by fusing models with remote sensing data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Serbin, S.; Shiklomanov, A. N.; Viskari, T.; Desai, A. R.; Townsend, P. A.; Dietze, M.

2015-12-01

Modeling global change requires accurate representation of terrestrial carbon (C), energy and water fluxes. In particular, capturing the properties of vegetation canopies that describe the radiation regime are a key focus for global change research because the properties related to radiation utilization and penetration within plant canopies provide an important constraint on terrestrial ecosystem productivity, as well as the fluxes of water and energy from vegetation to the atmosphere. As such, optical remote sensing observations present an important, and as yet relatively untapped, source of observations that can be used to inform modeling activities. In particular, high-spectral resolution optical data at the leaf and canopy scales offers the potential for an important and direct data constraint on the parameterization and structure of the radiative transfer model (RTM) scheme within ecosystem models across diverse vegetation types, disturbance and management histories. In this presentation we highlight ongoing work to integrate optical remote sensing observations, specifically leaf and imaging spectroscopy (IS) data across a range of forest ecosystems, into complex ecosystem process models within an efficient computational assimilation framework as a means to improve the description of canopy optical properties, vegetation composition, and modeled radiation balance. Our work leverages the Predictive Ecosystem Analyzer (PEcAn; http://www.pecanproject.org/) ecoinformatics toolbox together with a RTM module designed for efficient assimilation of leaf and IS observations to inform vegetation optical properties as well as associated plant traits. Ultimately, an improved understanding of the radiation balance of ecosystems will provide a better constraint on model projections of energy balance, vegetation composition, and carbon pools and fluxes thus allowing for a better diagnosis of the vulnerability of terrestrial ecosystems in response to global change.

Linking ecosystem services with state-and-transition models to evaluate rangeland management decisions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lohani, S.; Heilman, P.; deSteiguer, J. E.; Guertin, D. P.; Wissler, C.; McClaran, M. P.

2014-12-01

Quantifying ecosystem services is a crucial topic for land management decision making. However, market prices are usually not able to capture all the ecosystem services and disservices. Ecosystem services from rangelands, that cover 70% of the world's land area, are even less well-understood since knowledge of rangelands is limited. This study generated a management framework for rangelands that uses remote sensing to generate state and transition models (STMs) for a large area and a linear programming (LP) model that uses ecosystem services to evaluate natural and/or management induced transitions as described in the STM. The LP optimization model determines the best management plan for a plot of semi-arid land in the Empire Ranch in southeastern Arizona. The model allocated land among management activities (do nothing, grazing, fire, and brush removal) to optimize net benefits and determined the impact of monetizing environmental services and disservices on net benefits, acreage allocation and production output. The ecosystem services under study were forage production (AUM/ac/yr), sediment (lbs/ac/yr), water runoff (inches/yr), soil loss (lbs/ac/yr) and recreation (thousands of number of visitors/ac/yr). The optimization model was run for three different scenarios - private rancher, public rancher including environmental services and excluding disservices, and public rancher including both services and disservices. The net benefit was the highest for the public rancher excluding the disservices. A result from the study is a constrained optimization model that incorporates ecosystem services to analyze investments on conservation and management activities. Rangeland managers can use this model to understand and explain, not prescribe, the tradeoffs of management investments.

Meta-ecosystem dynamics and functioning on finite spatial networks

PubMed Central

Marleau, Justin N.; Guichard, Frédéric; Loreau, Michel

2014-01-01

The addition of spatial structure to ecological concepts and theories has spurred integration between sub-disciplines within ecology, including community and ecosystem ecology. However, the complexity of spatial models limits their implementation to idealized, regular landscapes. We present a model meta-ecosystem with finite and irregular spatial structure consisting of local nutrient–autotrophs–herbivores ecosystems connected through spatial flows of materials and organisms. We study the effect of spatial flows on stability and ecosystem functions, and provide simple metrics of connectivity that can predict these effects. Our results show that high rates of nutrient and herbivore movement can destabilize local ecosystem dynamics, leading to spatially heterogeneous equilibria or oscillations across the meta-ecosystem, with generally increased meta-ecosystem primary and secondary production. However, the onset and the spatial scale of these emergent dynamics depend heavily on the spatial structure of the meta-ecosystem and on the relative movement rate of the autotrophs. We show how this strong dependence on finite spatial structure eludes commonly used metrics of connectivity, but can be predicted by the eigenvalues and eigenvectors of the connectivity matrix that describe the spatial structure and scale. Our study indicates the need to consider finite-size ecosystems in meta-ecosystem theory. PMID:24403323

Changes in the structure and function of northern Alaskan ecosystems when considering variable leaf-out times across groupings of species in a dynamic vegetation model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Euskirchen, E.S.; Carman, T.B.; McGuire, Anthony David

2013-01-01

The phenology of arctic ecosystems is driven primarily by abiotic forces, with temperature acting as the main determinant of growing season onset and leaf budburst in the spring. However, while the plant species in arctic ecosystems require differing amounts of accumulated heat for leaf-out, dynamic vegetation models simulated over regional to global scales typically assume some average leaf-out for all of the species within an ecosystem. Here, we make use of air temperature records and observations of spring leaf phenology collected across dominant groupings of species (dwarf birch shrubs, willow shrubs, other deciduous shrubs, grasses, sedges, and forbs) in arctic and boreal ecosystems in Alaska. We then parameterize a dynamic vegetation model based on these data for four types of tundra ecosystems (heath tundra, shrub tundra, wet sedge tundra, and tussock tundra), as well as ecotonal boreal white spruce forest, and perform model simulations for the years 1970 -2100. Over the course of the model simulations, we found changes in ecosystem composition under this new phenology algorithm compared to simulations with the previous phenology algorithm. These changes were the result of the differential timing of leaf-out, as well as the ability for the groupings of species to compete for nitrogen and light availability. Regionally, there were differences in the trends of the carbon pools and fluxes between the new phenology algorithm and the previous phenology algorithm, although these differences depended on the future climate scenario. These findings indicate the importance of leaf phenology data collection by species and across the various ecosystem types within the highly heterogeneous Arctic landscape, and that dynamic vegetation models should consider variation in leaf-out by groupings of species within these ecosystems to make more accurate projections of future plant distributions and carbon cycling in Arctic regions.

Changes in the structure and function of northern Alaskan ecosystems when considering variable leaf-out times across groupings of species in a dynamic vegetation model.

PubMed

Euskirchen, Eugénie S; Carman, Tobey B; McGuire, A David

2014-03-01

The phenology of arctic ecosystems is driven primarily by abiotic forces, with temperature acting as the main determinant of growing season onset and leaf budburst in the spring. However, while the plant species in arctic ecosystems require differing amounts of accumulated heat for leaf-out, dynamic vegetation models simulated over regional to global scales typically assume some average leaf-out for all of the species within an ecosystem. Here, we make use of air temperature records and observations of spring leaf phenology collected across dominant groupings of species (dwarf birch shrubs, willow shrubs, other deciduous shrubs, grasses, sedges, and forbs) in arctic and boreal ecosystems in Alaska. We then parameterize a dynamic vegetation model based on these data for four types of tundra ecosystems (heath tundra, shrub tundra, wet sedge tundra, and tussock tundra), as well as ecotonal boreal white spruce forest, and perform model simulations for the years 1970-2100. Over the course of the model simulations, we found changes in ecosystem composition under this new phenology algorithm compared with simulations with the previous phenology algorithm. These changes were the result of the differential timing of leaf-out, as well as the ability for the groupings of species to compete for nitrogen and light availability. Regionally, there were differences in the trends of the carbon pools and fluxes between the new phenology algorithm and the previous phenology algorithm, although these differences depended on the future climate scenario. These findings indicate the importance of leaf phenology data collection by species and across the various ecosystem types within the highly heterogeneous Arctic landscape, and that dynamic vegetation models should consider variation in leaf-out by groupings of species within these ecosystems to make more accurate projections of future plant distributions and carbon cycling in Arctic regions. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Partitioning sources of uncertainty in projecting the impact of future climate extremes on site to regional ecosystem carbon cycling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Simkins, J.; Desai, A. R.; Cowdery, E.; Dietze, M.; Rollinson, C.

2016-12-01

The terrestrial biosphere assimilates nearly one fourth of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions, providing a significant ecosystem service. Anthropogenic climate changes that influence the distribution and frequency of weather extremes and can have a momentous impact on this useful function that ecosystems provide. However, most analyses of the impact of extreme events on ecosystem carbon uptake do not integrate across the wide range of structural, parametric, and driver uncertainty that needs to be taken into account to estimate probability of changes to ecosystem function under shifts in climate patterns. In order to improve ecosystem model forecasts, we integrated and estimated these sources of uncertainty using an open-sourced informatics workflow, the Predictive ECosystem Analyzer (PEcAn, http://pecanproject.org). PEcAn allows any researcher to parameterize and run multiple ecosystem models and automate extraction of meteorological forcing and estimation of its uncertainty. Trait databases and a uniform protocol for parameterizing and driving models were used to test parametric and structural uncertainty. In order to sample the uncertainty in future projected meteorological drivers, we developed automated extraction routines to acquire site-level three-hourly Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) forcing data from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory general circulation models (CM3, ESM2M, and ESM2G) across the r1i1p1, r3i1p1 and r5i1p1 ensembles and AR5 emission scenarios. We also implemented a site-level high temporal resolution downscaling technique for these forcings calibrated against half-hourly eddy covariance flux tower observations. Our hypothesis claims that parametric and driver uncertainty dominate over the model structural uncertainty. In order to test this, we partition the uncertainty budget on the ChEAS regional network of towers in Northern Wisconsin, USA where each tower is located in forest and wetland ecosystems.

Assessing the vulnerability of human and biological communities to changing ecosystem services using a GIS-based multi-criteria decision support tool

USGS Publications Warehouse

Villarreal, Miguel; Norman, Laura M.; Labiosa, William B.

2012-01-01

In this paper we describe an application of a GIS-based multi-criteria decision support web tool that models and evaluates relative changes in ecosystem services to policy and land management decisions. The Santa Cruz Watershed Ecosystem Portfolio (SCWEPM) was designed to provide credible forecasts of responses to ecosystem drivers and stressors and to illustrate the role of land use decisions on spatial and temporal distributions of ecosystem services within a binational (U.S. and Mexico) watershed. We present two SCWEPM sub-models that when analyzed together address bidirectional relationships between social and ecological vulnerability and ecosystem services. The first model employs the Modified Socio-Environmental Vulnerability Index (M-SEVI), which assesses community vulnerability using information from U.S. and Mexico censuses on education, access to resources, migratory status, housing situation, and number of dependents. The second, relating land cover change to biodiversity (provisioning services), models changes in the distribution of terrestrial vertebrate habitat based on multitemporal vegetation and land cover maps, wildlife habitat relationships, and changes in land use/land cover patterns. When assessed concurrently, the models exposed some unexpected relationships between vulnerable communities and ecosystem services provisioning. For instance, the most species-rich habitat type in the watershed, Desert Riparian Forest, increased over time in areas occupied by the most vulnerable populations and declined in areas with less vulnerable populations. This type of information can be used to identify ecological conservation and restoration targets that enhance the livelihoods of people in vulnerable communities and promote biodiversity and ecosystem health.

Carbon and energy fluxes in cropland ecosystems: a model-data comparison

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lokupitiya, E.; Denning, A. Scott; Schaefer, K.; Ricciuto, D.; Anderson, R.; Arain, M. A.; Baker, I.; Barr, A. G.; Chen, G.; Chen, J.M.; Ciais, P.; Cook, D.R.; Dietze, M.C.; El Maayar, M.; Fischer, M.; Grant, R.; Hollinger, D.; Izaurralde, C.; Jain, A.; Kucharik, C.J.; Li, Z.; Liu, S.; Li, L.; Matamala, R.; Peylin, P.; Price, D.; Running, S. W.; Sahoo, A.; Sprintsin, M.; Suyker, A.E.; Tian, H.; Tonitto, Christina; Torn, M.S.; Verbeeck, Hans; Verma, S.B.; Xue, Y.

2016-01-01

Croplands are highly productive ecosystems that contribute to land–atmosphere exchange of carbon, energy, and water during their short growing seasons. We evaluated and compared net ecosystem exchange (NEE), latent heat flux (LE), and sensible heat flux (H) simulated by a suite of ecosystem models at five agricultural eddy covariance flux tower sites in the central United States as part of the North American Carbon Program Site Synthesis project. Most of the models overestimated H and underestimated LE during the growing season, leading to overall higher Bowen ratios compared to the observations. Most models systematically under predicted NEE, especially at rain-fed sites. Certain crop-specific models that were developed considering the high productivity and associated physiological changes in specific crops better predicted the NEE and LE at both rain-fed and irrigated sites. Models with specific parameterization for different crops better simulated the inter-annual variability of NEE for maize-soybean rotation compared to those models with a single generic crop type. Stratification according to basic model formulation and phenological methodology did not explain significant variation in model performance across these sites and crops. The under prediction of NEE and LE and over prediction of H by most of the models suggests that models developed and parameterized for natural ecosystems cannot accurately predict the more robust physiology of highly bred and intensively managed crop ecosystems. When coupled in Earth System Models, it is likely that the excessive physiological stress simulated in many land surface component models leads to overestimation of temperature and atmospheric boundary layer depth, and underestimation of humidity and CO2 seasonal uptake over agricultural regions.

Carbon and energy fluxes in cropland ecosystems: a model-data comparison

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lokupitiya, E.; Denning, A. S.; Schaefer, K.

2016-06-03

Croplands are highly productive ecosystems that contribute to land–atmosphere exchange of carbon, energy, and water during their short growing seasons. We evaluated and compared net ecosystem exchange (NEE), latent heat flux (LE), and sensible heat flux (H) simulated by a suite of ecosystem models at five agricultural eddy covariance flux tower sites in the central United States as part of the North American Carbon Program Site Synthesis project. Most of the models overestimated H and underestimated LE during the growing season, leading to overall higher Bowen ratios compared to the observations. Most models systematically under predicted NEE, especially at rain-fedmore » sites. Certain crop-specific models that were developed considering the high productivity and associated physiological changes in specific crops better predicted the NEE and LE at both rain-fed and irrigated sites. Models with specific parameterization for different crops better simulated the inter-annual variability of NEE for maize-soybean rotation compared to those models with a single generic crop type. Stratification according to basic model formulation and phenological methodology did not explain significant variation in model performance across these sites and crops. The under prediction of NEE and LE and over prediction of H by most of the models suggests that models developed and parameterized for natural ecosystems cannot accurately predict the more robust physiology of highly bred and intensively managed crop ecosystems. When coupled in Earth System Models, it is likely that the excessive physiological stress simulated in many land surface component models leads to overestimation of temperature and atmospheric boundary layer depth, and underestimation of humidity and CO 2 seasonal uptake over agricultural regions.« less

Using ground- and satellite-based measurements and models to quantify response to multiple disturbances and climate change in South African semi-arid ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Falge, Eva; Brümmer, Christian; Schmullius, Christiane; Scholes, Robert; Twine, Wayne; Mudau, Azwitamisi; Midgley, Guy; Hickler, Thomas; Bradshaw, Karen; Lück, Wolfgang; Thiel-Clemen, Thomas; du Toit, Justin; Sankaran, Vaith; Kutsch, Werner

2016-04-01

Sub-Saharan Africa currently experiences significant changes in shrubland, savanna and mixed woodland ecosystems driving degradation, affecting fire frequency and water availability, and eventually fueling climate change. The project 'Adaptive Resilience of Southern African Ecosystems' (ARS AfricaE) conducts research and develops scenarios of ecosystem development under climate change, for management support in conservation or for planning rural area development. For a network of research clusters along an aridity gradient in South Africa, we measure greenhouse gas exchange, ecosystem structure and eco-physiological properties as affected by land use change at paired sites with natural and altered vegetation. We set up dynamic vegetation models and individual-based models to predict ecosystem dynamics under (post) disturbance managements. We monitor vegetation amount and heterogeneity using remotely sensed images and aerial photography over several decades to examine time series of land cover change. Finally, we investigate livelihood strategies with focus on carbon balance components to develop sustainable management strategies for disturbed ecosystems and land use change. Emphasis is given on validation of estimates obtained from eddy covariance, model approaches and satellite derivations. We envision our methodological approach on a network of research clusters a valuable means to investigate potential linkages to concepts of adaptive resilience.

Using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to model ecosystem services: A systematic review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Francesconi, Wendy; Srinivasan, Raghavan; Pérez-Miñana, Elena; Willcock, Simon P.; Quintero, Marcela

2016-04-01

SWAT, a watershed modeling tool has been proposed to help quantify ecosystem services. The concept of ecosystem services incorporates the collective benefits natural systems provide primarily to human beings. It is becoming increasingly important to track the impact that human activities have on the environment in order to determine its resilience and sustainability. The objectives of this paper are to provide an overview of efforts using SWAT to quantify ecosystem services, to determine the model's capability examining various types of services, and to describe the approach used by various researchers. A literature review was conducted to identify studies in which SWAT was explicitly used for quantifying ecosystem services in terms of provisioning, regulating, supporting, and cultural aspects. A total of 44 peer reviewed publications were identified. Most of these used SWAT to quantify provisioning services (34%), regulating services (27%), or a combination of both (25%). While studies using SWAT for evaluating ecosystem services are limited (approximately 1% of SWAT's peered review publications), and usage (vs. potential) of services by beneficiaries is a current model limitation, the available literature sets the stage for the continuous development and potential of SWAT as a methodological framework for quantifying ecosystem services to assist in decision-making.

Constructing a Conceptual Model Linking Drivers and Ecosystem Services in Piedmont Streams

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-04-01

to the Virginia-Maryland border and is bound by the Appalachian Mountains and Blue Ridge to the northwest and the Atlantic Coastal Plain to the south...demand on freshwater ecosystem services, and a growing appreciation for the value of functioning ecosystems, the Appalachian Piedmont has developed a...the model and how it can be adapted and ap - plied for specific projects. A FRAMEWORK FOR CONCEPTUAL MODELING The general approach to conceptual

Modeling Hawaiian Ecosystem Degradation due to Invasive Plants under Current and Future Climates

PubMed Central

Vorsino, Adam E.; Fortini, Lucas B.; Amidon, Fred A.; Miller, Stephen E.; Jacobi, James D.; Price, Jonathan P.; Gon, Sam 'Ohukani'ohi'a; Koob, Gregory A.

2014-01-01

Occupation of native ecosystems by invasive plant species alters their structure and/or function. In Hawaii, a subset of introduced plants is regarded as extremely harmful due to competitive ability, ecosystem modification, and biogeochemical habitat degradation. By controlling this subset of highly invasive ecosystem modifiers, conservation managers could significantly reduce native ecosystem degradation. To assess the invasibility of vulnerable native ecosystems, we selected a proxy subset of these invasive plants and developed robust ensemble species distribution models to define their respective potential distributions. The combinations of all species models using both binary and continuous habitat suitability projections resulted in estimates of species richness and diversity that were subsequently used to define an invasibility metric. The invasibility metric was defined from species distribution models with <0.7 niche overlap (Warrens I) and relatively discriminative distributions (Area Under the Curve >0.8; True Skill Statistic >0.75) as evaluated per species. Invasibility was further projected onto a 2100 Hawaii regional climate change scenario to assess the change in potential habitat degradation. The distribution defined by the invasibility metric delineates areas of known and potential invasibility under current climate conditions and, when projected into the future, estimates potential reductions in native ecosystem extent due to climate-driven invasive incursion. We have provided the code used to develop these metrics to facilitate their wider use (Code S1). This work will help determine the vulnerability of native-dominated ecosystems to the combined threats of climate change and invasive species, and thus help prioritize ecosystem and species management actions. PMID:24805254

Modeling Hawaiian ecosystem degradation due to invasive plants under current and future climates.

PubMed

Vorsino, Adam E; Fortini, Lucas B; Amidon, Fred A; Miller, Stephen E; Jacobi, James D; Price, Jonathan P; Gon, Sam 'ohukani'ohi'a; Koob, Gregory A

2014-01-01

Occupation of native ecosystems by invasive plant species alters their structure and/or function. In Hawaii, a subset of introduced plants is regarded as extremely harmful due to competitive ability, ecosystem modification, and biogeochemical habitat degradation. By controlling this subset of highly invasive ecosystem modifiers, conservation managers could significantly reduce native ecosystem degradation. To assess the invasibility of vulnerable native ecosystems, we selected a proxy subset of these invasive plants and developed robust ensemble species distribution models to define their respective potential distributions. The combinations of all species models using both binary and continuous habitat suitability projections resulted in estimates of species richness and diversity that were subsequently used to define an invasibility metric. The invasibility metric was defined from species distribution models with <0.7 niche overlap (Warrens I) and relatively discriminative distributions (Area Under the Curve >0.8; True Skill Statistic >0.75) as evaluated per species. Invasibility was further projected onto a 2100 Hawaii regional climate change scenario to assess the change in potential habitat degradation. The distribution defined by the invasibility metric delineates areas of known and potential invasibility under current climate conditions and, when projected into the future, estimates potential reductions in native ecosystem extent due to climate-driven invasive incursion. We have provided the code used to develop these metrics to facilitate their wider use (Code S1). This work will help determine the vulnerability of native-dominated ecosystems to the combined threats of climate change and invasive species, and thus help prioritize ecosystem and species management actions.

Towards end-to-end models for investigating the effects of climate and fishing in marine ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Travers, M.; Shin, Y.-J.; Jennings, S.; Cury, P.

2007-12-01

End-to-end models that represent ecosystem components from primary producers to top predators, linked through trophic interactions and affected by the abiotic environment, are expected to provide valuable tools for assessing the effects of climate change and fishing on ecosystem dynamics. Here, we review the main process-based approaches used for marine ecosystem modelling, focusing on the extent of the food web modelled, the forcing factors considered, the trophic processes represented, as well as the potential use and further development of the models. We consider models of a subset of the food web, models which represent the first attempts to couple low and high trophic levels, integrated models of the whole ecosystem, and size spectrum models. Comparisons within and among these groups of models highlight the preferential use of functional groups at low trophic levels and species at higher trophic levels and the different ways in which the models account for abiotic processes. The model comparisons also highlight the importance of choosing an appropriate spatial dimension for representing organism dynamics. Many of the reviewed models could be extended by adding components and by ensuring that the full life cycles of species components are represented, but end-to-end models should provide full coverage of ecosystem components, the integration of physical and biological processes at different scales and two-way interactions between ecosystem components. We suggest that this is best achieved by coupling models, but there are very few existing cases where the coupling supports true two-way interaction. The advantages of coupling models are that the extent of discretization and representation can be targeted to the part of the food web being considered, making their development time- and cost-effective. Processes such as predation can be coupled to allow the propagation of forcing factors effects up and down the food web. However, there needs to be a stronger focus on enabling two-way interaction, carefully selecting the key functional groups and species, reconciling different time and space scales and the methods of converting between energy, nutrients and mass.

Understanding variation in ecosystem pulse responses to wetting: Benefits of data-model coupling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jenerette, D.

2011-12-01

Metabolic pulses of activity are a common ecological response to intermittently available resources and in water-limited ecosystems these pulses often occur in response to wetting. Net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE) in response to episodic wetting events is hypothesized to have a complex trajectory reflecting the distinct responses, or "pulses", of respiration and photosynthesis. To help direct research activities a physiological-based model of whole ecosystem metabolic activity up- and down-regulation was developed to investigate ecosystem energy balance and gas exchange pulse responses following precipitation events. This model was to investigate pulse dynamics from a local network of sites in southern Arizona, a global network of eddy-covariance ecosystem monitoring sites, laboratory incubation studies, and field manipulations. Pulse responses were found to be ubiquitous across ecosystem types. These pulses had a highly variable influence on NEE following wetting, ranging from large net sinks to sources of CO2 to the atmosphere. Much of the variability in pulse responses of NEE could be described through a coupled up- and down-regulation pulse response model. Respiration pulses were hypothesized to occur through a reduction in whole ecosystem activation energy; this model was both useful and corroborated through laboratory incubation studies of soil respiration. Using the Fluxnet eddy-covariance measurement database event specific responses were combined with the pulse model into an event specific twenty-five day net flux calculation. Across all events observed a general net accumulation of CO2 following a precipitation event, with the largest net uptake within deciduous broadleaf forests and smallest within grasslands. NEE pulses favored greater uptake when pre-event ecosystem respiration rates and total precipitation were higher. While the latter was expected, the former adds to previous theory by suggesting a larger net uptake of CO2 when pre-event metabolic activity is higher. Scenario analyses of precipitation regimes suggested increased uptake with increasing total precipitation while more complex NEE responses to increasing number of events and interval between events. Pulse dynamics provides a general framework for understanding ecosystem responses to intermittent wetting projected to occur more frequently in future climates. Pulse dynamics also provides an opportunity to evaluate processes spanning cellular upregulation to global change.

Impacts of Diffuse Radiation on Light Use Efficiency across Terrestrial Ecosystems Based on Eddy Covariance Observation in China

PubMed Central

Huang, Kun; Wang, Shaoqiang; Zhou, Lei; Wang, Huimin; Zhang, Junhui; Yan, Junhua; Zhao, Liang; Wang, Yanfen; Shi, Peili

2014-01-01

Ecosystem light use efficiency (LUE) is a key factor of production models for gross primary production (GPP) predictions. Previous studies revealed that ecosystem LUE could be significantly enhanced by an increase on diffuse radiation. Under large spatial heterogeneity and increasing annual diffuse radiation in China, eddy covariance flux data at 6 sites across different ecosystems from 2003 to 2007 were used to investigate the impacts of diffuse radiation indicated by the cloudiness index (CI) on ecosystem LUE in grassland and forest ecosystems. Our results showed that the ecosystem LUE at the six sites was significantly correlated with the cloudiness variation (0.24≤R2≤0.85), especially at the Changbaishan temperate forest ecosystem (R2 = 0.85). Meanwhile, the CI values appeared more frequently between 0.8 and 1.0 in two subtropical forest ecosystems (Qianyanzhou and Dinghushan) and were much larger than those in temperate ecosystems. Besides, cloudiness thresholds which were favorable for enhancing ecosystem carbon sequestration existed at the three forest sites, respectively. Our research confirmed that the ecosystem LUE at the six sites in China was positively responsive to the diffuse radiation, and the cloudiness index could be used as an environmental regulator for LUE modeling in regional GPP prediction. PMID:25393629

Impacts of diffuse radiation on light use efficiency across terrestrial ecosystems based on Eddy covariance observation in China.

PubMed

Huang, Kun; Wang, Shaoqiang; Zhou, Lei; Wang, Huimin; Zhang, Junhui; Yan, Junhua; Zhao, Liang; Wang, Yanfen; Shi, Peili

2014-01-01

Ecosystem light use efficiency (LUE) is a key factor of production models for gross primary production (GPP) predictions. Previous studies revealed that ecosystem LUE could be significantly enhanced by an increase on diffuse radiation. Under large spatial heterogeneity and increasing annual diffuse radiation in China, eddy covariance flux data at 6 sites across different ecosystems from 2003 to 2007 were used to investigate the impacts of diffuse radiation indicated by the cloudiness index (CI) on ecosystem LUE in grassland and forest ecosystems. Our results showed that the ecosystem LUE at the six sites was significantly correlated with the cloudiness variation (0.24 ≤ R(2) ≤ 0.85), especially at the Changbaishan temperate forest ecosystem (R(2) = 0.85). Meanwhile, the CI values appeared more frequently between 0.8 and 1.0 in two subtropical forest ecosystems (Qianyanzhou and Dinghushan) and were much larger than those in temperate ecosystems. Besides, cloudiness thresholds which were favorable for enhancing ecosystem carbon sequestration existed at the three forest sites, respectively. Our research confirmed that the ecosystem LUE at the six sites in China was positively responsive to the diffuse radiation, and the cloudiness index could be used as an environmental regulator for LUE modeling in regional GPP prediction.

Modelling carbon fluxes of forest and grassland ecosystems in Western Europe using the CARAIB dynamic vegetation model: evaluation against eddy covariance data.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Henrot, Alexandra-Jane; François, Louis; Dury, Marie; Hambuckers, Alain; Jacquemin, Ingrid; Minet, Julien; Tychon, Bernard; Heinesch, Bernard; Horemans, Joanna; Deckmyn, Gaby

2015-04-01

Eddy covariance measurements are an essential resource to understand how ecosystem carbon fluxes react in response to climate change, and to help to evaluate and validate the performance of land surface and vegetation models at regional and global scale. In the framework of the MASC project (« Modelling and Assessing Surface Change impacts on Belgian and Western European climate »), vegetation dynamics and carbon fluxes of forest and grassland ecosystems simulated by the CARAIB dynamic vegetation model (Dury et al., iForest - Biogeosciences and Forestry, 4:82-99, 2011) are evaluated and validated by comparison of the model predictions with eddy covariance data. Here carbon fluxes (e.g. net ecosystem exchange (NEE), gross primary productivity (GPP), and ecosystem respiration (RECO)) and evapotranspiration (ET) simulated with the CARAIB model are compared with the fluxes measured at several eddy covariance flux tower sites in Belgium and Western Europe, chosen from the FLUXNET global network (http://fluxnet.ornl.gov/). CARAIB is forced either with surface atmospheric variables derived from the global CRU climatology, or with in situ meteorological data. Several tree (e.g. Pinus sylvestris, Fagus sylvatica, Picea abies) and grass species (e.g. Poaceae, Asteraceae) are simulated, depending on the species encountered on the studied sites. The aim of our work is to assess the model ability to reproduce the daily, seasonal and interannual variablility of carbon fluxes and the carbon dynamics of forest and grassland ecosystems in Belgium and Western Europe.

Freshwater Ecosystem Service Flow Model To Evaluate Regional Water Security: A Case Study In Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, D.; Li, S.

2016-12-01

Freshwater service, as the most important support ecosystem service, is essential to human survival and development. Many studies have evidenced the spatial differences in the supply and demand of ecosystem services and raised the concept of ecosystem service flow. However, rather few studies quantitatively characterize the freshwater service flow. This paper aims to quantify the effect of freshwater ecosystem service flow on downstream areas in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region, China over 2000, 2005 and 2010. We computed the freshwater ecosystem service provision with InVEST model. We calculated freshwater ecosystem service consumption with water quota method. We simulated the freshwater ecosystem service flow using our simplified flow model and assessed the regional water security with the improved freshwater security index. The freshwater provision service mainly depends on climatic factors that cannot be influenced by management, while the freshwater consumption service is constrained by human activities. Furthermore, the decrease of water quota for agricultural, domestic and industrial water counteracts the impact of increasing freshwater demand. The analysis of freshwater ecosystem service flow reveals that the majority area of the BTH (69.2%) is affected by upstream freshwater. If freshwater ecosystem service flow is considered, the water safety areas of the whole BTH account for 66.9%, 66.1%, 71.3%, which increase 6.4%, 6.8% and 5.7% in 2000, 2005 and 2010, respectively. These results highlight the need to understand the teleconnections between distant freshwater ecosystem service provision and local freshwater ecosystem service use. This approach therefore helps managers choose specific management and investment strategies for critical upstream freshwater provisions across different regions.

Projecting supply and demand of hydrologic ecosystem services under future climate conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chiang, Li-Chi; Huang, Tao; Lee, Tsung-Yu

2014-05-01

Ecosystems provide essential goods and services, such as food, clean water, water purification, soil conservation and cultural services for human being. In a watershed, these water-related ecosystem goods and services can directly or indirectly benefit both local people and downstream beneficiaries through a reservoir. Water quality and quantity in a reservoir are of importance for agricultural, industrial and domestic uses. Under the impacts of climate and land use changes, both ecosystem service supply and demand will be affected by changes in precipitation patterns, temperature, urbanization and agricultural activities. However, the linkage between ecosystem service provisioning (ESP) and ecosystem service beneficiary (ESB), and scales of supply and demand of ecosystem services are not clear yet. Therefore, to investigate water-related ecosystem service supply under climate and land use change, we took the Xindian river watershed (303 km2) as a case study, where the Feitsui Reservoir provides hydro-power and daily domestic water use of 3,450,000 m3 for 3.46 million people in Taipei, Taiwan. We integrated a hydrological model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool, SWAT) and a land use change model (Conversion of Land Use and its Effects, CLUE-s) with future climate change scenarios derived from General Circulation Models (GCMs), to assess the changes in ecosystem service supply and demand at different hydrologic scales. The results will provide useful information for decision-making on future land use management and climate change adaptation strategies in the watersheds. Keywords: climate change, land use change, ecosystem service, watershed, scale

An ecosystem model for tropical forest disturbance and selective logging

Treesearch

Maoyi Huang; Gregory P. Asner; Michael Keller; Joseph A. Berry

2008-01-01

[1] A new three-dimensional version of the Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach (CASA) ecosystem model (CASA-3D) was developed to simulate regional carbon cycling in tropical forest ecosystems after disturbances such as logging. CASA-3D has the following new features: (1) an alternative approach for calculating absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (APAR) using new...

Modelled effects of precipitation on ecosystem carbon and water dynamics in different climatic zones

Treesearch

Dieter Gerten; Yiqi Luo; Guerric Le Maire; William J. Parton; Cindy Keough; Ensheng Weng; Claus Beier; Philippe Ciais; Wolfgang Cramer; Jeffrey S. Dukes; Paul J. Hanson; Alan A. K. Knapp; Sune Linder; Dan Nepstad; Lindsey Rustad; Alwyn. Sowerby

2008-01-01

The ongoing changes in the global climate expose the world’s ecosystems not only to increasing CO2 concentrations and temperatures but also to altered precipitation (P) regimes. Using four well-established process-based ecosystem models (LPJ, DayCent, ORCHIDEE, TECO), we explored effects of potential P...

An analytical framework to assist decision makers in the use of forest ecosystem model predictions

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The predictions of most terrestrial ecosystem models originate from deterministic simulations. Relatively few uncertainty evaluation exercises in model outputs are performed by either model developers or users. This issue has important consequences for decision makers who rely on models to develop n...

Modelling carbon responses of tundra ecosystems to historical and projected climate: A comparison of a plot- and a global-scale ecosystem model to identify process-based uncertainties

USGS Publications Warehouse

Clein, Joy S.; Kwiatkowski, B.L.; McGuire, A.D.; Hobbie, J.E.; Rastetter, E.B.; Melillo, J.M.; Kicklighter, D.W.

2000-01-01

We are developing a process-based modelling approach to investigate how carbon (C) storage of tundra across the entire Arctic will respond to projected climate change. To implement the approach, the processes that are least understood, and thus have the most uncertainty, need to be identified and studied. In this paper, we identified a key uncertainty by comparing the responses of C storage in tussock tundra at one site between the simulations of two models - one a global-scale ecosystem model (Terrestrial Ecosystem Model, TEM) and one a plot-scale ecosystem model (General Ecosystem Model, GEM). The simulations spanned the historical period (1921-94) and the projected period (1995-2100). In the historical period, the model simulations of net primary production (NPP) differed in their sensitivity to variability in climate. However, the long-term changes in C storage were similar in both simulations, because the dynamics of heterotrophic respiration (RH) were similar in both models. In contrast, the responses of C storage in the two model simulations diverged during the projected period. In the GEM simulation for this period, increases in RH tracked increases in NPP, whereas in the TEM simulation increases in RH lagged increases in NPP. We were able to make the long-term C dynamics of the two simulations agree by parameterizing TEM to the fast soil C pools of GEM. We concluded that the differences between the long-term C dynamics of the two simulations lay in modelling the role of the recalcitrant soil C. These differences, which reflect an incomplete understanding of soil processes, lead to quite different projections of the response of pan-Arctic C storage to global change. For example, the reference parameterization of TEM resulted in an estimate of cumulative C storage of 2032 g C m-2 for moist tundra north of 50??N, which was substantially higher than the 463 g C m-2 estimated for a parameterization of fast soil C dynamics. This uncertainty in the depiction of the role of recalcitrant soil C in long-term ecosystem C dynamics resulted from our incomplete understanding of controls over C and N transformations in Arctic soils. Mechanistic studies of these issues are needed to improve our ability to model the response of Arctic ecosystems to global change.

Methodology to assess and map the potential development of forest ecosystems exposed to climate change and atmospheric nitrogen deposition: A pilot study in Germany.

PubMed

Schröder, Winfried; Nickel, Stefan; Jenssen, Martin; Riediger, Jan

2015-07-15

A methodology for mapping ecosystems and their potential development under climate change and atmospheric nitrogen deposition was developed using examples from Germany. The methodology integrated data on vegetation, soil, climate change and atmospheric nitrogen deposition. These data were used to classify ecosystem types regarding six ecological functions and interrelated structures. Respective data covering 1961-1990 were used for reference. The assessment of functional and structural integrity relies on comparing a current or future state with an ecosystem type-specific reference. While current functions and structures of ecosystems were quantified by measurements, potential future developments were projected by geochemical soil modelling and data from a regional climate change model. The ecosystem types referenced the potential natural vegetation and were mapped using data on current tree species coverage and land use. In this manner, current ecosystem types were derived, which were related to data on elevation, soil texture, and climate for the years 1961-1990. These relations were quantified by Classification and Regression Trees, which were used to map the spatial patterns of ecosystem type clusters for 1961-1990. The climate data for these years were subsequently replaced by the results of a regional climate model for 1991-2010, 2011-2040, and 2041-2070. For each of these periods, one map of ecosystem type clusters was produced and evaluated with regard to the development of areal coverage of ecosystem type clusters over time. This evaluation of the structural aspects of ecological integrity at the national level was added by projecting potential future values of indicators for ecological functions at the site level by using the Very Simple Dynamic soil modelling technique based on climate data and two scenarios of nitrogen deposition as input. The results were compared to the reference and enabled an evaluation of site-specific ecosystem changes over time which proved to be both, positive and negative. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

APPROACHES TO ECOSYSTEM AND HUMAN EXPOSURE TO MERCURY FOR SENSITIVE POPULATIONS

EPA Science Inventory

Both human and ecosystem exposure studies evaluate exposure of sensitive and vulnerable populations. We will discuss how ecosystem exposure modeling studies completed for input into the US Clean Air Mercury Rule (CAMR) to evaluate the response of aquatic ecosystems to changes in ...

Linking Ecosystem Services Benefit Transfer Databases and Ecosystem Services Production Function Libraries

EPA Science Inventory

The quantification or estimation of the economic and non-economic values of ecosystem services can be done from a number of distinct approaches. For example, practitioners may use ecosystem services production function models (ESPFMs) for a particular location, or alternatively, ...

Multiple ecosystem services in a working landscape

PubMed Central

Eastburn, Danny J.; O’Geen, Anthony T.; Tate, Kenneth W.; Roche, Leslie M.

2017-01-01

Policy makers and practitioners are in need of useful tools and models for assessing ecosystem service outcomes and the potential risks and opportunities of ecosystem management options. We utilize a state-and-transition model framework integrating dynamic soil and vegetation properties to examine multiple ecosystem services—specifically agricultural production, biodiversity and habitat, and soil health—across human created vegetation states in a managed oak woodland landscape in a Mediterranean climate. We found clear tradeoffs and synergies in management outcomes. Grassland states maximized agricultural productivity at a loss of soil health, biodiversity, and other ecosystem services. Synergies existed among multiple ecosystem services in savanna and woodland states with significantly larger nutrient pools, more diversity and native plant richness, and less invasive species. This integrative approach can be adapted to a diversity of working landscapes to provide useful information for science-based ecosystem service valuations, conservation decision making, and management effectiveness assessments. PMID:28301475

Multiple ecosystem services in a working landscape.

PubMed

Eastburn, Danny J; O'Geen, Anthony T; Tate, Kenneth W; Roche, Leslie M

2017-01-01

Policy makers and practitioners are in need of useful tools and models for assessing ecosystem service outcomes and the potential risks and opportunities of ecosystem management options. We utilize a state-and-transition model framework integrating dynamic soil and vegetation properties to examine multiple ecosystem services-specifically agricultural production, biodiversity and habitat, and soil health-across human created vegetation states in a managed oak woodland landscape in a Mediterranean climate. We found clear tradeoffs and synergies in management outcomes. Grassland states maximized agricultural productivity at a loss of soil health, biodiversity, and other ecosystem services. Synergies existed among multiple ecosystem services in savanna and woodland states with significantly larger nutrient pools, more diversity and native plant richness, and less invasive species. This integrative approach can be adapted to a diversity of working landscapes to provide useful information for science-based ecosystem service valuations, conservation decision making, and management effectiveness assessments.

Biodiversity and ecosystem stability across scales in metacommunities

PubMed Central

Wang, Shaopeng; Loreau, Michel

2016-01-01

Although diversity-stability relationships have been extensively studied in local ecosystems, the global biodiversity crisis calls for an improved understanding of these relationships in a spatial context. Here we use a dynamical model of competitive metacommunities to study the relationships between species diversity and ecosystem variability across scales. We derive analytic relationships under a limiting case; these results are extended to more general cases with numerical simulations. Our model shows that, while alpha diversity decreases local ecosystem variability, beta diversity generally contributes to increasing spatial asynchrony among local ecosystems. Consequently, both alpha and beta diversity provide stabilizing effects for regional ecosystems, through local and spatial insurance effects, respectively. We further show that at the regional scale, the stabilizing effect of biodiversity increases as spatial environmental correlation increases. Our findings have important implications for understanding the interactive effects of global environmental changes (e.g. environmental homogenization) and biodiversity loss on ecosystem sustainability at large scales. PMID:26918536

Spatially-explicit modeling of multi-scale drivers of aboveground forest biomass and water yield in watersheds of the Southeastern United States.

PubMed

Ajaz Ahmed, Mukhtar Ahmed; Abd-Elrahman, Amr; Escobedo, Francisco J; Cropper, Wendell P; Martin, Timothy A; Timilsina, Nilesh

2017-09-01

Understanding ecosystem processes and the influence of regional scale drivers can provide useful information for managing forest ecosystems. Examining more local scale drivers of forest biomass and water yield can also provide insights for identifying and better understanding the effects of climate change and management on forests. We used diverse multi-scale datasets, functional models and Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) to model ecosystem processes at the watershed scale and to interpret the influence of ecological drivers across the Southeastern United States (SE US). Aboveground forest biomass (AGB) was determined from available geospatial datasets and water yield was estimated using the Water Supply and Stress Index (WaSSI) model at the watershed level. Our geostatistical model examined the spatial variation in these relationships between ecosystem processes, climate, biophysical, and forest management variables at the watershed level across the SE US. Ecological and management drivers at the watershed level were analyzed locally to identify whether drivers contribute positively or negatively to aboveground forest biomass and water yield ecosystem processes and thus identifying potential synergies and tradeoffs across the SE US region. Although AGB and water yield drivers varied geographically across the study area, they were generally significantly influenced by climate (rainfall and temperature), land-cover factor1 (Water and barren), land-cover factor2 (wetland and forest), organic matter content high, rock depth, available water content, stand age, elevation, and LAI drivers. These drivers were positively or negatively associated with biomass or water yield which significantly contributes to ecosystem interactions or tradeoff/synergies. Our study introduced a spatially-explicit modelling framework to analyze the effect of ecosystem drivers on forest ecosystem structure, function and provision of services. This integrated model approach facilitates multi-scale analyses of drivers and interactions at the local to regional scale. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Linking remote-sensing and ecosystem services modeling to support and assess management for regenerative grazing in the South Gobi, Mongolia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chaplin-Kramer, R.; Kowal, V. A.; Sharp, R.

2017-12-01

Managing and monitoring supply chain sustainability is a major challenge and opportunity for business, especially in rangelands, heavily managed and often degraded natural systems that provide significant resources and raw materials for production. One of the largest and most threatened rangeland systems in the world is in Mongolia, which has seen a rapid rise in grazing pressure due to increasing global demand for cashmere along with privatization of a formerly government-run livestock industry. A new opportunity is emerging for remote-sensing to improve the management decisions of the producers and their incentive-setters, leading to a more sustainable rangeland system and better outcomes for biodiversity and people in this unique and imperiled landscape. Oyu Tolgoi (OT), the Mongolian subsidiary of the mining company Rio Tinto, in cooperation with Kering, an apparel conglomerate that sources cashmere from the region, are providing financial incentives to improve grazing patterns through a Sustainable Cashmere program, in order to restore the degraded rangeland ecosystem in the Gobi desert region. We present a framework and approach for predicting the effect of changing grazing practices on biodiversity and ecosystem services, which we are developing into decision-support tools for OT, Kering, and their local partner Wildlife Conservation Society to quantify the impacts of their programs and where these interventions will have greatest benefit. Our approach integrates remote-sensing and ecosystem modeling to scale up field monitoring data and forecast future impacts. Our rangeland production model, based on the soil-vegetation model CENTURY and the livestock model GRAZPLAN, predicts biomass production and plant species composition changes, and can feed into ecosystem services models such as soil retention and water regulation in the InVEST (Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs) software suite. This presents a significant advance in ecosystem services modeling, moving toward continuous functions related to remotely-sensed ecosystem condition or quality rather than categorical land cover class. Preliminary findings suggest that categorical approaches may underestimate ecosystem services loss from degradation or gain from restoration by a factor of 2-5.

A multitrophic model to quantify the effects of marine viruses on microbial food webs and ecosystem processes

PubMed Central

Weitz, Joshua S; Stock, Charles A; Wilhelm, Steven W; Bourouiba, Lydia; Coleman, Maureen L; Buchan, Alison; Follows, Michael J; Fuhrman, Jed A; Jover, Luis F; Lennon, Jay T; Middelboe, Mathias; Sonderegger, Derek L; Suttle, Curtis A; Taylor, Bradford P; Frede Thingstad, T; Wilson, William H; Eric Wommack, K

2015-01-01

Viral lysis of microbial hosts releases organic matter that can then be assimilated by nontargeted microorganisms. Quantitative estimates of virus-mediated recycling of carbon in marine waters, first established in the late 1990s, were originally extrapolated from marine host and virus densities, host carbon content and inferred viral lysis rates. Yet, these estimates did not explicitly incorporate the cascade of complex feedbacks associated with virus-mediated lysis. To evaluate the role of viruses in shaping community structure and ecosystem functioning, we extend dynamic multitrophic ecosystem models to include a virus component, specifically parameterized for processes taking place in the ocean euphotic zone. Crucially, we are able to solve this model analytically, facilitating evaluation of model behavior under many alternative parameterizations. Analyses reveal that the addition of a virus component promotes the emergence of complex communities. In addition, biomass partitioning of the emergent multitrophic community is consistent with well-established empirical norms in the surface oceans. At steady state, ecosystem fluxes can be probed to characterize the effects that viruses have when compared with putative marine surface ecosystems without viruses. The model suggests that ecosystems with viruses will have (1) increased organic matter recycling, (2) reduced transfer to higher trophic levels and (3) increased net primary productivity. These model findings support hypotheses that viruses can have significant stimulatory effects across whole-ecosystem scales. We suggest that existing efforts to predict carbon and nutrient cycling without considering virus effects are likely to miss essential features of marine food webs that regulate global biogeochemical cycles. PMID:25635642

A multitrophic model to quantify the effects of marine viruses on microbial food webs and ecosystem processes.

PubMed

Weitz, Joshua S; Stock, Charles A; Wilhelm, Steven W; Bourouiba, Lydia; Coleman, Maureen L; Buchan, Alison; Follows, Michael J; Fuhrman, Jed A; Jover, Luis F; Lennon, Jay T; Middelboe, Mathias; Sonderegger, Derek L; Suttle, Curtis A; Taylor, Bradford P; Frede Thingstad, T; Wilson, William H; Eric Wommack, K

2015-06-01

Viral lysis of microbial hosts releases organic matter that can then be assimilated by nontargeted microorganisms. Quantitative estimates of virus-mediated recycling of carbon in marine waters, first established in the late 1990s, were originally extrapolated from marine host and virus densities, host carbon content and inferred viral lysis rates. Yet, these estimates did not explicitly incorporate the cascade of complex feedbacks associated with virus-mediated lysis. To evaluate the role of viruses in shaping community structure and ecosystem functioning, we extend dynamic multitrophic ecosystem models to include a virus component, specifically parameterized for processes taking place in the ocean euphotic zone. Crucially, we are able to solve this model analytically, facilitating evaluation of model behavior under many alternative parameterizations. Analyses reveal that the addition of a virus component promotes the emergence of complex communities. In addition, biomass partitioning of the emergent multitrophic community is consistent with well-established empirical norms in the surface oceans. At steady state, ecosystem fluxes can be probed to characterize the effects that viruses have when compared with putative marine surface ecosystems without viruses. The model suggests that ecosystems with viruses will have (1) increased organic matter recycling, (2) reduced transfer to higher trophic levels and (3) increased net primary productivity. These model findings support hypotheses that viruses can have significant stimulatory effects across whole-ecosystem scales. We suggest that existing efforts to predict carbon and nutrient cycling without considering virus effects are likely to miss essential features of marine food webs that regulate global biogeochemical cycles.

An operational model for mainstreaming ecosystem services for implementation

PubMed Central

Cowling, Richard M.; Egoh, Benis; Knight, Andrew T.; O'Farrell, Patrick J.; Reyers, Belinda; Rouget, Mathieu; Roux, Dirk J.; Welz, Adam; Wilhelm-Rechman, Angelika

2008-01-01

Research on ecosystem services has grown markedly in recent years. However, few studies are embedded in a social process designed to ensure effective management of ecosystem services. Most research has focused only on biophysical and valuation assessments of putative services. As a mission-oriented discipline, ecosystem service research should be user-inspired and user-useful, which will require that researchers respond to stakeholder needs from the outset and collaborate with them in strategy development and implementation. Here we provide a pragmatic operational model for achieving the safeguarding of ecosystem services. The model comprises three phases: assessment, planning, and management. Outcomes of social, biophysical, and valuation assessments are used to identify opportunities and constraints for implementation. The latter then are transformed into user-friendly products to identify, with stakeholders, strategic objectives for implementation (the planning phase). The management phase undertakes and coordinates actions that achieve the protection of ecosystem services and ensure the flow of these services to beneficiaries. This outcome is achieved via mainstreaming, or incorporating the safeguarding of ecosystem services into the policies and practices of sectors that deal with land- and water-use planning. Management needs to be adaptive and should be institutionalized in a suite of learning organizations that are representative of the sectors that are concerned with decision-making and planning. By following the phases of our operational model, projects for safeguarding ecosystem services are likely to empower stakeholders to implement effective on-the-ground management that will achieve resilience of the corresponding social-ecological systems. PMID:18621695

Model development of a participatory Bayesian network for coupling ecosystem services into integrated water resources management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xue, Jie; Gui, Dongwei; Lei, Jiaqiang; Zeng, Fanjiang; Mao, Donglei; Zhang, Zhiwei

2017-11-01

There is an increasing consensus on the importance of coupling ecosystem services (ES) into integrated water resource management (IWRM), due to a wide range of benefits to human from the ES. This paper proposes an ES-based IWRM framework within which a participatory Bayesian network (BN) model is developed to assist with the coupling between ES and IWRM. The framework includes three steps: identifying water-related services of ecosystems; analysis of the tradeoff and synergy among users of water; and ES-based IWRM implementation using the participatory BN model. We present the development, evaluation and application of the participatory BN model with the involvement of four participant groups (stakeholders, water manager, water management experts, and research team) in Qira oasis area, Northwest China. As a typical catchment-scale region, the Qira oasis area is facing severe water competition between the demands of human activities and natural ecosystems. Results demonstrate that the BN model developed provides effective integration of ES into a quantitative IWMR framework via public negotiation and feedback. The network results, sensitivity evaluation, and management scenarios are broadly accepted by the participant groups. The intervention scenarios from the model conclude that any water management measure remains unable to sustain the ecosystem health in water-related ES. Greater cooperation among the stakeholders is highly necessary for dealing with such water conflicts. In particular, a proportion of the agricultural water saved through improving water-use efficiency should be transferred to natural ecosystems via water trade. The BN model developed is appropriate for areas throughout the world in which there is intense competition for water between human activities and ecosystems.

Simulating carbon and water fluxes at Arctic and boreal ecosystems in Alaska by optimizing the modified BIOME-BGC with eddy covariance data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ueyama, M.; Kondo, M.; Ichii, K.; Iwata, H.; Euskirchen, E. S.; Zona, D.; Rocha, A. V.; Harazono, Y.; Nakai, T.; Oechel, W. C.

2013-12-01

To better predict carbon and water cycles in Arctic ecosystems, we modified a process-based ecosystem model, BIOME-BGC, by introducing new processes: change in active layer depth on permafrost and phenology of tundra vegetation. The modified BIOME-BGC was optimized using an optimization method. The model was constrained using gross primary productivity (GPP) and net ecosystem exchange (NEE) at 23 eddy covariance sites in Alaska, and vegetation/soil carbon from a literature survey. The model was used to simulate regional carbon and water fluxes of Alaska from 1900 to 2011. Simulated regional fluxes were validated with upscaled GPP, ecosystem respiration (RE), and NEE based on two methods: (1) a machine learning technique and (2) a top-down model. Our initial simulation suggests that the original BIOME-BGC with default ecophysiological parameters substantially underestimated GPP and RE for tundra and overestimated those fluxes for boreal forests. We will discuss how optimization using the eddy covariance data impacts the historical simulation by comparing the new version of the model with simulated results from the original BIOME-BGC with default ecophysiological parameters. This suggests that the incorporation of the active layer depth and plant phenology processes is important to include when simulating carbon and water fluxes in Arctic ecosystems.

A framework for predicting impacts on ecosystem services ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Protection of ecosystem services is increasingly emphasized as a risk-assessment goal, but there are wide gaps between current ecological risk-assessment endpoints and potential effects on services provided by ecosystems. The authors present a framework that links common ecotoxicological endpoints to chemical impacts on populations and communities and the ecosystem services that they provide. This framework builds on considerable advances in mechanistic effects models designed to span multiple levels of biological organization and account for various types of biological interactions and feedbacks. For illustration, the authors introduce 2 case studies that employ well-developed and validated mechanistic effects models: the inSTREAM individual-based model for fish populations and the AQUATOX ecosystem model. They also show how dynamic energy budget theory can provide a common currency for interpreting organism-level toxicity. They suggest that a framework based on mechanistic models that predict impacts on ecosystem services resulting from chemical exposure, combined with economic valuation, can provide a useful approach for informing environmental management. The authors highlight the potential benefits of using this framework as well as the challenges that will need to be addressed in future work. The framework introduced here represents an ongoing initiative supported by the National Institute of Mathematical and Biological Synthesis (NIMBioS; http://www.nimbi

LAI is the major cause of divergence in CO2 fertilization effect in land surface models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Q.; Luo, Y.; Lu, X.; Wang, Y.; Huang, X.; Lin, G., Sr.

2017-12-01

Concentration-carbon feedback (β), also called CO2 fertilization effect, is an important feedback between terrestrial ecosystems and atmosphere to alleviate global climate change. However, models participating in C4MIP and CMIP5 predicted diverse CO2 fertilization effects under future CO2 inceasing scenarios. Hence identifing the key processes dominating the divergence of β in land surface models is of significance. We calculated CO2 fertilization effects from leaf level, canopy gross productivity level, net ecosystem productivity level and ecosystem carbon stock level in Community Atmosphere Biosphere Land Exchange (CABLE) model. Our results identified LAI is the key factor dominating the divergence of β among C3 plants in CABLE model. Saturation of the ecosystem productivity to increasing CO2 is not only regulated by leaf-level response, but also the response of LAI to increasing CO2. The greatest variation among C3 plants at ecosystem level suggests that other processes such as different allocation patterns and soil carbon dynamics of various vegetation types are also responsible for the divergence. Our results indicate that processes regarding to LAI need to be better calibrated according to experiments and observations in order to better represent the response of ecosystem productivity to increasing CO2.

Comparative Model Evaluation Studies of Biogenic Trace Gas Fluxes in Tropical Forests

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Potter, C. S.; Peterson, David L. (Technical Monitor)

1997-01-01

Simulation modeling can play a number of important roles in large-scale ecosystem studies, including synthesis of patterns and changes in carbon and nutrient cycling dynamics, scaling up to regional estimates, and formulation of testable hypotheses for process studies. Recent comparative studies have shown that ecosystem models of soil trace gas exchange with the atmosphere are evolving into several distinct simulation approaches. Different levels of detail exist among process models in the treatment of physical controls on ecosystem nutrient fluxes and organic substrate transformations leading to gas emissions. These differences are is in part from distinct objectives of scaling and extrapolation. Parameter requirements for initialization scalings, boundary conditions, and time-series driven therefore vary among ecosystem simulation models, such that the design of field experiments for integration with modeling should consider a consolidated series of measurements that will satisfy most of the various model requirements. For example, variables that provide information on soil moisture holding capacity, moisture retention characteristics, potential evapotranspiration and drainage rates, and rooting depth appear to be of the first order in model evaluation trials for tropical moist forest ecosystems. The amount and nutrient content of labile organic matter in the soil, based on accurate plant production estimates, are also key parameters that determine emission model response. Based on comparative model results, it is possible to construct a preliminary evaluation matrix along categories of key diagnostic parameters and temporal domains. Nevertheless, as large-scale studied are planned, it is notable that few existing models age designed to simulate transient states of ecosystem change, a feature which will be essential for assessment of anthropogenic disturbance on regional gas budgets, and effects of long-term climate variability on biosphere-atmosphere exchange.

[Measuring water ecological carrying capacity with the ecosystem-service-based ecological footprint (ESEF) method: Theory, models and application].

PubMed

Jiao, Wen-jun; Min, Qing-wen; Li, Wen-hua; Fuller, Anthony M

2015-04-01

Integrated watershed management based on aquatic ecosystems has been increasingly acknowledged. Such a change in the philosophy of water environment management requires recognizing the carrying capacity of aquatic ecosystems for human society from a more general perspective. The concept of the water ecological carrying capacity is therefore put forward, which considers both water resources and water environment, connects socio-economic development to aquatic ecosystems and provides strong support for integrated watershed management. In this paper, the authors proposed an ESEF-based measure of water ecological carrying capacity and constructed ESEF-based models of water ecological footprint and capacity, aiming to evaluate water ecological carrying capacity with footprint methods. A regional model of Taihu Lake Basin was constructed and applied to evaluate the water ecological carrying capacity in Changzhou City which located in the upper reaches of the basin. Results showed that human demand for water ecosystem services in this city had exceeded the supply capacity of local aquatic ecosystems and the significant gap between demand and supply had jeopardized the sustainability of local aquatic ecosystems. Considering aqua-product provision, water supply and pollutant absorption in an integrated way, the scale of population and economy aquatic ecosystems in Changzhou could bear only 54% of the current status.

ECOSYSTEM SERVICES AND BEYOND: INTEGRATION OF ECOSYSTEM SCIENCE AND MULTIMEDIA EXPOSURE MODELING FOR ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION

EPA Science Inventory

Decision-making for ecosystem protection and resource management requires an integrative science and technology applied with a sufficiently comprehensive systems approach. Single media (e.g., air, soil and water) approaches that evaluate aspects of an ecosystem in a stressor-by-...

Ecosystem development of Haizhou Bay Ecological Restoration Area from 2003 to 2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Teng; Li, Yunkai; Xie, Bin; Zhang, Hu; Zhang, Shuo

2017-12-01

Two Ecopath mass-balance models were implemented for evaluating the structure and function of Haizhou Bay Ecological Restoration Area ecosystem using 14 ecological indicators in two distinctive years (2003 and 2013). The results showed that the size of HZERA ecosystem became larger as total biomass was increased in last decade, especially in primary producer and zooplankton groups. Total system throughput increased from 7496.00 t km-2 yr-1 to 9547.54 t km-2 yr-1. The P/R (production/respiration) ratio decreased over the decade. Finn's cycling index and Finn's mean path length increased over the decade. No keystone species (KS) occurred during ten years; however, evidences of top-down control in 2003 and 2013 models were demonstrated by high KS value belonging to Lophius litulon group in food web. Drawing upon Odum's theory of ecosystem maturity, the structured, web-like ecosystem of 2013 model had developed into a highly mature system compared with that of 2003 model.

Merging a mechanistic enzymatic model of soil heterotrophic respiration into an ecosystem model in two AmeriFlux sites of northeastern USA

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sihi, Debjani; Davidson, Eric A.; Chen, Min

Heterotrophic respiration (Rh), microbial processing of soil organic matter to carbon dioxide (CO 2), is a major, yet highly uncertain, carbon (C) flux from terrestrial systems to the atmosphere. Temperature sensitivity of Rh is often represented with a simple Q 10 function in ecosystem models and earth system models (ESMs), sometimes accompanied by an empirical soil moisture modifier. More explicit representation of the effects of soil moisture, substrate supply, and their interactions with temperature has been proposed as a way to disentangle the confounding factors of apparent temperature sensitivity of Rh and improve the performance of ecosystem models and ESMs.more » The objective of this work was to insert into an ecosystem model a more mechanistic, but still parsimonious, model of environmental factors controlling Rh and evaluate the model performance in terms of soil and ecosystem respiration. The Dual Arrhenius and Michaelis-Menten (DAMM) model simulates Rh using Michaelis-Menten, Arrhenius, and diffusion functions. Soil moisture affects Rh and its apparent temperature sensitivity in DAMM by regulating the diffusion of oxygen, soluble C substrates, and extracellular enzymes to the enzymatic reaction site. Here, we merged the DAMM soil flux model with a parsimonious ecosystem flux model, FöBAAR (Forest Biomass, Assimilation, Allocation and Respiration). We used high-frequency soil flux data from automated soil chambers and landscape-scale ecosystem fluxes from eddy covariance towers at two AmeriFlux sites (Harvard Forest, MA and Howland Forest, ME) in the northeastern USA to estimate parameters, validate the merged model, and to quantify the uncertainties in a multiple constraints approach. The optimized DAMM-FöBAAR model better captured the seasonal and inter-annual dynamics of soil respiration (Soil R) compared to the FöBAAR-only model for the Harvard Forest, where higher frequency and duration of drying events significantly regulate substrate supply to heterotrophs. However, DAMM-FöBAAR showed improvement over FöBAAR-only at the boreal transition Howland Forest only in unusually dry years. The frequency of synoptic-scale dry periods is lower at Howland, resulting in only brief water limitation of Rh in some years. At both sites, the declining trend of soil R during drying events was captured by the DAMM-FöBAAR model; however, model performance was also contingent on site conditions, climate, and the temporal scale of interest. While the DAMM functions require a few more parameters than a simple Q10 function, we have demonstrated that they can be included in an ecosystem model and reduce the model-data mismatch. Moreover, the mechanistic structure of the soil moisture effects using DAMM functions should be more generalizable than the wide variety of empirical functions that are commonly used, and these DAMM functions could be readily incorporated into other ecosystem models and ESMs.« less

The distribution of persistent organic pollutants in a trophically complex Antarctic ecosystem model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bates, Michael L.; Bengtson Nash, Susan M.; Hawker, Darryl W.; Shaw, Emily C.; Cropp, Roger A.

2017-06-01

Despite Antarctica's isolation from human population centres, persistent organic pollutants (POPs) are transported there via long range atmospheric transport and subsequently cold-trapped. The challenging nature of working in the Antarctic environment greatly limits our ability to monitor POP concentrations and understand the processes that govern the distribution of POPs in Antarctic ecosystems. Here we couple a dynamic, trophically complex biological model with a fugacity model to investigate the distribution of hexachlorobenzene (HCB) in a near-shore Antarctic ecosystem. Using this model we examine the steady-state, and annual cycle of HCB concentration in the atmosphere, ocean, sediment, detritus, and 21 classes of biota that span from primary producers to apex predators. The scope and trophic resolution of our model allows us to examine POP pathways through the ecosystem. In our model the main pathway of HCB to upper trophic species is via pelagic communities, with relatively little via benthic communities. Using a dynamic ecosystem model also allows us to examine the seasonal and potential climate change induced changes in POP distribution. We show that there is a large annual cycle in concentration in the planktonic communities, which may have implications for biomagnification factors calculated from observations. We also examine the direct effects of increasing temperature on the redistribution of HCB in a changing climate and find that it is likely minor compared to other indirect effects, such as changes in atmospheric circulation, sea ice dynamics, and changes to the ecosystem itself.

Climate-based models for pulsed resources improve predictability of consumer population dynamics: outbreaks of house mice in forest ecosystems.

PubMed

Holland, E Penelope; James, Alex; Ruscoe, Wendy A; Pech, Roger P; Byrom, Andrea E

2015-01-01

Accurate predictions of the timing and magnitude of consumer responses to episodic seeding events (masts) are important for understanding ecosystem dynamics and for managing outbreaks of invasive species generated by masts. While models relating consumer populations to resource fluctuations have been developed successfully for a range of natural and modified ecosystems, a critical gap that needs addressing is better prediction of resource pulses. A recent model used change in summer temperature from one year to the next (ΔT) for predicting masts for forest and grassland plants in New Zealand. We extend this climate-based method in the framework of a model for consumer-resource dynamics to predict invasive house mouse (Mus musculus) outbreaks in forest ecosystems. Compared with previous mast models based on absolute temperature, the ΔT method for predicting masts resulted in an improved model for mouse population dynamics. There was also a threshold effect of ΔT on the likelihood of an outbreak occurring. The improved climate-based method for predicting resource pulses and consumer responses provides a straightforward rule of thumb for determining, with one year's advance warning, whether management intervention might be required in invaded ecosystems. The approach could be applied to consumer-resource systems worldwide where climatic variables are used to model the size and duration of resource pulses, and may have particular relevance for ecosystems where global change scenarios predict increased variability in climatic events.

Modelling Mediterranean agro-ecosystems by including agricultural trees in the LPJmL model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fader, M.; von Bloh, W.; Shi, S.; Bondeau, A.; Cramer, W.

2015-06-01

Climate and land use change in the Mediterranean region is expected to affect natural and agricultural ecosystems by decreases in precipitation, increases in temperature as well as biodiversity loss and anthropogenic degradation of natural resources. Demographic growth in the Eastern and Southern shores will require increases in food production and put additional pressure on agro-ecosystems and water resources. Coping with these challenges requires informed decisions that, in turn, require assessments by means of a comprehensive agro-ecosystem and hydrological model. This study presents the inclusion of 10 Mediterranean agricultural plants, mainly perennial crops, in an agro-ecosystem model (LPJmL): nut trees, date palms, citrus trees, orchards, olive trees, grapes, cotton, potatoes, vegetables and fodder grasses. The model was successfully tested in three model outputs: agricultural yields, irrigation requirements and soil carbon density. With the development presented in this study, LPJmL is now able to simulate in good detail and mechanistically the functioning of Mediterranean agriculture with a comprehensive representation of ecophysiological processes for all vegetation types (natural and agricultural) and in a consistent framework that produces estimates of carbon, agricultural and hydrological variables for the entire Mediterranean basin. This development pave the way for further model extensions aiming at the representation of alternative agro-ecosystems (e.g. agroforestry), and opens the door for a large number of applications in the Mediterranean region, for example assessments on the consequences of land use transitions, the influence of management practices and climate change impacts.

Current and future carbon budget at Takayama site, Japan, evaluated by a regional climate model and a process-based terrestrial ecosystem model.

PubMed

Kuribayashi, Masatoshi; Noh, Nam-Jin; Saitoh, Taku M; Ito, Akihiko; Wakazuki, Yasutaka; Muraoka, Hiroyuki

2017-06-01

Accurate projection of carbon budget in forest ecosystems under future climate and atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) concentration is important to evaluate the function of terrestrial ecosystems, which serve as a major sink of atmospheric CO 2 . In this study, we examined the effects of spatial resolution of meteorological data on the accuracies of ecosystem model simulation for canopy phenology and carbon budget such as gross primary production (GPP), ecosystem respiration (ER), and net ecosystem production (NEP) of a deciduous forest in Japan. Then, we simulated the future (around 2085) changes in canopy phenology and carbon budget of the forest by incorporating high-resolution meteorological data downscaled by a regional climate model. The ecosystem model overestimated GPP and ER when we inputted low-resolution data, which have warming biases over mountainous landscape. But, it reproduced canopy phenology and carbon budget well, when we inputted high-resolution data. Under the future climate, earlier leaf expansion and delayed leaf fall by about 10 days compared with the present state was simulated, and also, GPP, ER and NEP were estimated to increase by 25.2%, 23.7% and 35.4%, respectively. Sensitivity analysis showed that the increase of NEP in June and October would be mainly caused by rising temperature, whereas that in July and August would be largely attributable to CO 2 fertilization. This study suggests that the downscaling of future climate data enable us to project more reliable carbon budget of forest ecosystem in mountainous landscape than the low-resolution simulation due to the better predictions of leaf expansion and shedding.

Ensemble ecosystem modeling for predicting ecosystem response to predator reintroduction.

PubMed

Baker, Christopher M; Gordon, Ascelin; Bode, Michael

2017-04-01

Introducing a new or extirpated species to an ecosystem is risky, and managers need quantitative methods that can predict the consequences for the recipient ecosystem. Proponents of keystone predator reintroductions commonly argue that the presence of the predator will restore ecosystem function, but this has not always been the case, and mathematical modeling has an important role to play in predicting how reintroductions will likely play out. We devised an ensemble modeling method that integrates species interaction networks and dynamic community simulations and used it to describe the range of plausible consequences of 2 keystone-predator reintroductions: wolves (Canis lupus) to Yellowstone National Park and dingoes (Canis dingo) to a national park in Australia. Although previous methods for predicting ecosystem responses to such interventions focused on predicting changes around a given equilibrium, we used Lotka-Volterra equations to predict changing abundances through time. We applied our method to interaction networks for wolves in Yellowstone National Park and for dingoes in Australia. Our model replicated the observed dynamics in Yellowstone National Park and produced a larger range of potential outcomes for the dingo network. However, we also found that changes in small vertebrates or invertebrates gave a good indication about the potential future state of the system. Our method allowed us to predict when the systems were far from equilibrium. Our results showed that the method can also be used to predict which species may increase or decrease following a reintroduction and can identify species that are important to monitor (i.e., species whose changes in abundance give extra insight into broad changes in the system). Ensemble ecosystem modeling can also be applied to assess the ecosystem-wide implications of other types of interventions including assisted migration, biocontrol, and invasive species eradication. © 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.

Satellite-based modeling of gross primary production in an evergreen needleleaf forest

Treesearch

Xiangming Xiao; David Hollinger; John Aber; Mike Goltz; Eric A. Davidson; Qingyuan Zhang; Berrien Moore III

2004-01-01

The eddy covariance technique provides valuable information on net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of CO2, between the atmosphere and terrestrial ecosystems, ecosystem respiration, and gross primary production (GPP) at a variety of C02 eddy flux tower sites. In this paper, we develop a new, satellite-based Vegetation Photosynthesis Model (VPM) to estimate the seasonal dynamcs...

Modeled effect of warming on ecosystem carbon and water dynamics within grassland/old-field ecosystems along a moisture gradient

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

As a consequence of steadily increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases in Earth’s atmosphere, average world-wide surface temperature is expected to increase 1.5-6.4°C by the end of the 21st Century. Results from manipulative field experiments and ecosystem modeling indicate that plants and soil...

Inverse estimation of Vcmax, leaf area index, and the Ball-Berry parameter from carbon and energy fluxes

Treesearch

Adam Wolf; Kanat Akshalov; Nicanor Saliendra; Douglas A. Johnson; Emilio A. Laca

2006-01-01

Canopy fluxes of CO2 and energy can be modeled with high fidelity using a small number of environmental variables and ecosystem parameters. Although these ecosystem parameters are critically important for modeling canopy fluxes, they typically are not measured with the same intensity as ecosystem fluxes. We developed an algorithm to estimate leaf...

A comparison of tools for modeling freshwater ecosystem services.

PubMed

Vigerstol, Kari L; Aukema, Juliann E

2011-10-01

Interest in ecosystem services has grown tremendously among a wide range of sectors, including government agencies, NGO's and the business community. Ecosystem services entailing freshwater (e.g. flood control, the provision of hydropower, and water supply), as well as carbon storage and sequestration, have received the greatest attention in both scientific and on-the-ground applications. Given the newness of the field and the variety of tools for predicting water-based services, it is difficult to know which tools to use for different questions. There are two types of freshwater-related tools--traditional hydrologic tools and newer ecosystem services tools. Here we review two of the most prominent tools of each type and their possible applications. In particular, we compare the data requirements, ease of use, questions addressed, and interpretability of results among the models. We discuss the strengths, challenges and most appropriate applications of the different models. Traditional hydrological tools provide more detail whereas ecosystem services tools tend to be more accessible to non-experts and can provide a good general picture of these ecosystem services. We also suggest gaps in the modeling toolbox that would provide the greatest advances by improving existing tools. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modeling forest C and N allocation responses to free-air CO2 enrichment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luus, Kristina; De Kauwe, Martin; Walker, Anthony; Werner, Christian; Iversen, Colleen; McCarthy, Heather; Medlyn, Belinda; Norby, Richard; Oren, Ram; Zak, Donald; Zaehle, Sönke

2015-04-01

Vegetation allocation patterns and soil-vegetation partitioning of C and N are predicted to change in response to rising atmospheric concentrations of CO2. These allocation responses to rising CO2 have been examined at the ecosystem level through through free-air CO2 enrichment (FACE) experiments, and their global implications for the timing of progressive N limitation (PNL) and C sequestration have been predicted for ~100 years using a variety of ecosystem models. However, recent FACE model-data syntheses studies [1,2,3] have indicated that ecosystem models do not capture the 5-10 year site-level ecosystem allocation responses to elevated CO2. This may be due in part to the missing representation of the rhizosphere interactions between plants and soil biota in models. Ecosystem allocation of C and N is altered by interactions between soil and vegetation through the priming effect: as plant N availability diminishes, plants respond physiologically by altering their tissue allocation strategies so as to increase rates of root growth and rhizodeposition. In response, either soil organic material begins to accumulate, which hastens the onset of PNL, or soil microbes start to decompose C more rapidly, resulting in increased N availability for plant uptake, which delays PNL. In this study, a straightforward approach for representing rhizosphere interactions in ecosystem models was developed through which C and N allocation to roots and rhizodeposition responds dynamically to elevated CO2 conditions, modifying soil decomposition rates without pre-specification of the direction in which soil C and N accumulation should shift in response to elevated CO2. This approach was implemented in a variety of ecosystem models ranging from stand (G'DAY), to land surface (CLM 4.5, O-CN), to dynamic global vegetation (LPJ-GUESS) models. Comparisons against data from three forest FACE sites (Duke, Oak Ridge & Rhinelander) indicated that representing rhizosphere interactions allowed models to more reliably capture responses of ecosystem C and N allocation to free-air CO2 enrichment because they were able to simulate the priming effect. Insights were therefore gained into between-site differences observed in forest FACE experiments, and the underlying physiological and biogeochemical mechanisms determining ecosystem C and N allocation responses to elevated CO2. References 1. De Kauwe, M. G., et al. (2014), Where does the carbon go? A model-data intercomparison of vegetation carbon allocation and turnover processes at two temperate forest free-air CO2 enrichment sites, New Phytologist, 203, 883-899. 2. Walker, A. P., et al. (2014), Comprehensive ecosystem model-data synthesis using multiple data sets at two temperate forest free-air CO2 enrichment experiments: Model performance at ambient CO2 concentration, Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, 119, 937-964. 3. Zaehle, S., et al. (2014), Evaluation of 11 terrestrial carbon-nitrogen cycle models against observations from two temperate Free-Air CO2 Enrichment studies, New Phytologist, 202 (3), 803-822.

Activation of the marine ecosystem model 3D CEMBS for the Baltic Sea in operational mode

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dzierzbicka-Glowacka, Lidia; Jakacki, Jaromir; Janecki, Maciej; Nowicki, Artur

2013-04-01

The paper presents a new marine ecosystem model 3D CEMBS designed for the Baltic Sea. The ecosystem model is incorporated into the 3D POPCICE ocean-ice model. The Current Baltic Sea model is based on the Community Earth System Model (CESM from the National Center for Atmospheric Research) which was adapted for the Baltic Sea as a coupled sea-ice model. It consists of the Community Ice Code (CICE model, version 4.0) and the Parallel Ocean Program (version 2.1). The ecosystem model is a biological submodel of the 3D CEMBS. It consists of eleven mass conservation equations. There are eleven partial second-order differential equations of the diffusion type with the advective term for phytoplankton, zooplankton, nutrients, dissolved oxygen, and dissolved and particulate organic matter. This model is an effective tool for solving the problem of ecosystem bioproductivity. The model is forced by 48-hour atmospheric forecasts provided by the UM model from the Interdisciplinary Centre for Mathematical and Computational Modelling of Warsaw University (ICM). The study was financially supported by the Polish State Committee of Scientific Research (grants: No N N305 111636, N N306 353239). The partial support for this study was also provided by the project Satellite Monitoring of the Baltic Sea Environment - SatBaltyk founded by European Union through European Regional Development Fund contract no. POIG 01.01.02-22-011/09. Calculations were carried out at the Academy Computer Centre in Gdańsk.

Simulation of hydrologic influences on wetland ecosystem succession. Master's thesis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pompilio, R.A.

1994-09-01

This research focuses on the development of a simulation model to determine the affects of hydrological influences on a wetland ecosystem. The model allows perturbations to the inputs of various wetland data which in turn, influences the successional development of the ecosystem. This research consisted of converting a grassland ecosystem model to one which simulates wetland conditions. The critical factor in determining the success of wetland creation is the hydrology of the system. There are four of the areas of the original model which are affected by the hydrology. The model measures the health or success of the ecosystem throughmore » the measurement of the systems gross plant production, the respiration and the net primary production of biomass. Altering the auxiliary variables of water level and the rate of flow through the system explicitly details the affects hydrologic influences on those production rates. Ten case tests depicting exogenous perturbations of the hydrology were run to identify these affects. Although the tests dealt with the fluctuation of water through the system, any one of the auxiliary variables in the model could be changed to reflect site specific data. Productivity, Hazardous material management, Hazardous material pharmacy.« less

The Functionally-Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator Version 1

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Xu, Chonggang; Christoffersen, Bradley

The Functionally-Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES) is a vegetation model for use in Earth system models (ESMs). The model includes a size- and age-structured representation of tree dynamics, competition between functionally diverse plant functional types, and the biophysics underpinning plant growth, competition, mortality, as well as the carbon, water, and energy exchange with the atmosphere. The FATES model is designed as a modular vegetation model that can be integrated within a host land model for inclusion in ESMs. The model is designed for use in global change studies to understand and project the responses and feedbacks between terrestrial ecosystems andmore » the Earth system under changing climate and other forcings.« less

Strong and nonlinear effects of fragmentation on ecosystem service provision at multiple scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mitchell, Matthew G. E.; Bennett, Elena M.; Gonzalez, Andrew

2015-09-01

Human actions, such as converting natural land cover to agricultural or urban land, result in the loss and fragmentation of natural habitat, with important consequences for the provision of ecosystem services. Such habitat loss is especially important for services that are supplied by fragments of natural land cover and that depend on flows of organisms, matter, or people across the landscape to produce benefits, such as pollination, pest regulation, recreation and cultural services. However, our quantitative knowledge about precisely how different patterns of landscape fragmentation might affect the provision of these types of services is limited. We used a simple, spatially explicit model to evaluate the potential impact of natural land cover loss and fragmentation on the provision of hypothetical ecosystem services. Based on current literature, we assumed that fragments of natural land cover provide ecosystem services to the area surrounding them in a distance-dependent manner such that ecosystem service flow depended on proximity to fragments. We modeled seven different patterns of natural land cover loss across landscapes that varied in the overall level of landscape fragmentation. Our model predicts that natural land cover loss will have strong and unimodal effects on ecosystem service provision, with clear thresholds indicating rapid loss of service provision beyond critical levels of natural land cover loss. It also predicts the presence of a tradeoff between maximizing ecosystem service provision and conserving natural land cover, and a mismatch between ecosystem service provision at landscape versus finer spatial scales. Importantly, the pattern of landscape fragmentation mitigated or intensified these tradeoffs and mismatches. Our model suggests that managing patterns of natural land cover loss and fragmentation could help influence the provision of multiple ecosystem services and manage tradeoffs and synergies between services across different human-dominated landscapes.

A comparative assessment of tools for ecosystem services quantification and valuation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bagstad, Kenneth J.; Semmens, Darius; Waage, Sissel; Winthrop, Robert

2013-01-01

To enter widespread use, ecosystem service assessments need to be quantifiable, replicable, credible, flexible, and affordable. With recent growth in the field of ecosystem services, a variety of decision-support tools has emerged to support more systematic ecosystem services assessment. Despite the growing complexity of the tool landscape, thorough reviews of tools for identifying, assessing, modeling and in some cases monetarily valuing ecosystem services have generally been lacking. In this study, we describe 17 ecosystem services tools and rate their performance against eight evaluative criteria that gauge their readiness for widespread application in public- and private-sector decision making. We describe each of the tools′ intended uses, services modeled, analytical approaches, data requirements, and outputs, as well time requirements to run seven tools in a first comparative concurrent application of multiple tools to a common location – the San Pedro River watershed in southeast Arizona, USA, and northern Sonora, Mexico. Based on this work, we offer conclusions about these tools′ current ‘readiness’ for widespread application within both public- and private-sector decision making processes. Finally, we describe potential pathways forward to reduce the resource requirements for running ecosystem services models, which are essential to facilitate their more widespread use in environmental decision making.

Biological interactions and cooperative management of multiple species.

PubMed

Jiang, Jinwei; Min, Yong; Chang, Jie; Ge, Ying

2017-01-01

Coordinated decision making and actions have become the primary solution for the overexploitation of interacting resources within ecosystems. However, the success of coordinated management is highly sensitive to biological, economic, and social conditions. Here, using a game theoretic framework and a 2-species model that considers various biological relationships (competition, predation, and mutualism), we compute cooperative (or joint) and non-cooperative (or separate) management equilibrium outcomes of the model and investigate the effects of the type and strength of the relationships. We find that cooperation does not always show superiority to non-cooperation in all biological interactions: (1) if and only if resources are involved in high-intensity predation relationships, cooperation can achieve a win-win scenario for ecosystem services and resource diversity; (2) for competitive resources, cooperation realizes higher ecosystem services by sacrificing resource diversity; and (3) for mutual resources, cooperation has no obvious advantage for either ecosystem services or resource evenness but can slightly improve resource abundance. Furthermore, by using a fishery model of the North California Current Marine Ecosystem with 63 species and seven fleets, we demonstrate that the theoretical results can be reproduced in real ecosystems. Therefore, effective ecosystem management should consider the interconnection between stakeholders' social relationship and resources' biological relationships.

THE AQUATOX MODEL

EPA Science Inventory

This lecture will present AQUATOX, an aquatic ecosystem simulation model developed by Dr. Dick Park and supported by the U.S. EPA. The AQUATOX model predicts the fate of various pollutants, such as nutrients and organic chemicals, and their effects on the ecosystem, including fi...

Global carbon assimilation system using a local ensemble Kalman filter with multiple ecosystem models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Shupeng; Yi, Xue; Zheng, Xiaogu; Chen, Zhuoqi; Dan, Bo; Zhang, Xuanze

2014-11-01

In this paper, a global carbon assimilation system (GCAS) is developed for optimizing the global land surface carbon flux at 1° resolution using multiple ecosystem models. In GCAS, three ecosystem models, Boreal Ecosystem Productivity Simulator, Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach, and Community Atmosphere Biosphere Land Exchange, produce the prior fluxes, and an atmospheric transport model, Model for OZone And Related chemical Tracers, is used to calculate atmospheric CO2 concentrations resulting from these prior fluxes. A local ensemble Kalman filter is developed to assimilate atmospheric CO2 data observed at 92 stations to optimize the carbon flux for six land regions, and the Bayesian model averaging method is implemented in GCAS to calculate the weighted average of the optimized fluxes based on individual ecosystem models. The weights for the models are found according to the closeness of their forecasted CO2 concentration to observation. Results of this study show that the model weights vary in time and space, allowing for an optimum utilization of different strengths of different ecosystem models. It is also demonstrated that spatial localization is an effective technique to avoid spurious optimization results for regions that are not well constrained by the atmospheric data. Based on the multimodel optimized flux from GCAS, we found that the average global terrestrial carbon sink over the 2002-2008 period is 2.97 ± 1.1 PgC yr-1, and the sinks are 0.88 ± 0.52, 0.27 ± 0.33, 0.67 ± 0.39, 0.90 ± 0.68, 0.21 ± 0.31, and 0.04 ± 0.08 PgC yr-1 for the North America, South America, Africa, Eurasia, Tropical Asia, and Australia, respectively. This multimodel GCAS can be used to improve global carbon cycle estimation.

Mechanisms controlling primary and new production in a global ecosystem model - Part I: Validation of the biological simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Popova, E. E.; Coward, A. C.; Nurser, G. A.; de Cuevas, B.; Fasham, M. J. R.; Anderson, T. R.

2006-12-01

A global general circulation model coupled to a simple six-compartment ecosystem model is used to study the extent to which global variability in primary and export production can be realistically predicted on the basis of advanced parameterizations of upper mixed layer physics, without recourse to introducing extra complexity in model biology. The "K profile parameterization" (KPP) scheme employed, combined with 6-hourly external forcing, is able to capture short-term periodic and episodic events such as diurnal cycling and storm-induced deepening. The model realistically reproduces various features of global ecosystem dynamics that have been problematic in previous global modelling studies, using a single generic parameter set. The realistic simulation of deep convection in the North Atlantic, and lack of it in the North Pacific and Southern Oceans, leads to good predictions of chlorophyll and primary production in these contrasting areas. Realistic levels of primary production are predicted in the oligotrophic gyres due to high frequency external forcing of the upper mixed layer (accompanying paper Popova et al., 2006) and novel parameterizations of zooplankton excretion. Good agreement is shown between model and observations at various JGOFS time series sites: BATS, KERFIX, Papa and HOT. One exception is the northern North Atlantic where lower grazing rates are needed, perhaps related to the dominance of mesozooplankton there. The model is therefore not globally robust in the sense that additional parameterizations are needed to realistically simulate ecosystem dynamics in the North Atlantic. Nevertheless, the work emphasises the need to pay particular attention to the parameterization of mixed layer physics in global ocean ecosystem modelling as a prerequisite to increasing the complexity of ecosystem models.

Modeling Ecosystem Services in an Arid Landscape Using the InVEST Tool

EPA Science Inventory

In this paper we describe the US Environmental Protection Agency’s Southwest Ecosystem Services Program (SwESP) initial efforts to use the InVEST (Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs) tool to quantify and map the values of multiple ecosystem services in the S...

The Interior Columbia Basin Ecosystem Management Project: scientific assessment.

Treesearch

1999-01-01

This CD-ROM contains digital versions (PDF) of the major scientific documents prepared for the Interior Columbia Basin Ecosystem Management Project (ICBEMP). "A Framework for Ecosystem Management in the Interior Columbia Basin and Portions of the Klamath and Great Basins" describes a general planning model for ecosystem management. The "Highlighted...

Ecosystem Jenga!

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Umphlett, Natalie; Brosius, Tierney; Laungani, Ramesh; Rousseau, Joe; Leslie-Pelecky, Diandra L.

2009-01-01

To give students a tangible model of an ecosystem and have them experience what could happen if a component of that ecosystem were removed; the authors developed a hands-on, inquiry-based activity that visually demonstrates the concept of a delicately balanced ecosystem through a modification of the popular game Jenga. This activity can be…

Quantitative Models Describing Past and Current Nutrient Fluxes and Associated Ecosystem Level Responses in the Narragansett Bay Ecosystem

EPA Science Inventory

Multiple drivers, including nutrient loading and climate change, affect the Narragansett Bay ecosystem in Rhode Island/Massachusetts, USA. Managers are interested in understanding the timing and magnitude of these effects, and ecosystem responses to restoration actions. To provid...

Scientific Foundations for an IUCN Red List of Ecosystems

PubMed Central

Keith, David A.; Rodríguez, Jon Paul; Rodríguez-Clark, Kathryn M.; Nicholson, Emily; Aapala, Kaisu; Alonso, Alfonso; Asmussen, Marianne; Bachman, Steven; Basset, Alberto; Barrow, Edmund G.; Benson, John S.; Bishop, Melanie J.; Bonifacio, Ronald; Brooks, Thomas M.; Burgman, Mark A.; Comer, Patrick; Comín, Francisco A.; Essl, Franz; Faber-Langendoen, Don; Fairweather, Peter G.; Holdaway, Robert J.; Jennings, Michael; Kingsford, Richard T.; Lester, Rebecca E.; Nally, Ralph Mac; McCarthy, Michael A.; Moat, Justin; Oliveira-Miranda, María A.; Pisanu, Phil; Poulin, Brigitte; Regan, Tracey J.; Riecken, Uwe; Spalding, Mark D.; Zambrano-Martínez, Sergio

2013-01-01

An understanding of risks to biodiversity is needed for planning action to slow current rates of decline and secure ecosystem services for future human use. Although the IUCN Red List criteria provide an effective assessment protocol for species, a standard global assessment of risks to higher levels of biodiversity is currently limited. In 2008, IUCN initiated development of risk assessment criteria to support a global Red List of ecosystems. We present a new conceptual model for ecosystem risk assessment founded on a synthesis of relevant ecological theories. To support the model, we review key elements of ecosystem definition and introduce the concept of ecosystem collapse, an analogue of species extinction. The model identifies four distributional and functional symptoms of ecosystem risk as a basis for assessment criteria: A) rates of decline in ecosystem distribution; B) restricted distributions with continuing declines or threats; C) rates of environmental (abiotic) degradation; and D) rates of disruption to biotic processes. A fifth criterion, E) quantitative estimates of the risk of ecosystem collapse, enables integrated assessment of multiple processes and provides a conceptual anchor for the other criteria. We present the theoretical rationale for the construction and interpretation of each criterion. The assessment protocol and threat categories mirror those of the IUCN Red List of species. A trial of the protocol on terrestrial, subterranean, freshwater and marine ecosystems from around the world shows that its concepts are workable and its outcomes are robust, that required data are available, and that results are consistent with assessments carried out by local experts and authorities. The new protocol provides a consistent, practical and theoretically grounded framework for establishing a systematic Red List of the world’s ecosystems. This will complement the Red List of species and strengthen global capacity to report on and monitor the status of biodiversity PMID:23667454

Scientific foundations for an IUCN Red List of ecosystems.

PubMed

Keith, David A; Rodríguez, Jon Paul; Rodríguez-Clark, Kathryn M; Nicholson, Emily; Aapala, Kaisu; Alonso, Alfonso; Asmussen, Marianne; Bachman, Steven; Basset, Alberto; Barrow, Edmund G; Benson, John S; Bishop, Melanie J; Bonifacio, Ronald; Brooks, Thomas M; Burgman, Mark A; Comer, Patrick; Comín, Francisco A; Essl, Franz; Faber-Langendoen, Don; Fairweather, Peter G; Holdaway, Robert J; Jennings, Michael; Kingsford, Richard T; Lester, Rebecca E; Mac Nally, Ralph; McCarthy, Michael A; Moat, Justin; Oliveira-Miranda, María A; Pisanu, Phil; Poulin, Brigitte; Regan, Tracey J; Riecken, Uwe; Spalding, Mark D; Zambrano-Martínez, Sergio

2013-01-01

An understanding of risks to biodiversity is needed for planning action to slow current rates of decline and secure ecosystem services for future human use. Although the IUCN Red List criteria provide an effective assessment protocol for species, a standard global assessment of risks to higher levels of biodiversity is currently limited. In 2008, IUCN initiated development of risk assessment criteria to support a global Red List of ecosystems. We present a new conceptual model for ecosystem risk assessment founded on a synthesis of relevant ecological theories. To support the model, we review key elements of ecosystem definition and introduce the concept of ecosystem collapse, an analogue of species extinction. The model identifies four distributional and functional symptoms of ecosystem risk as a basis for assessment criteria: A) rates of decline in ecosystem distribution; B) restricted distributions with continuing declines or threats; C) rates of environmental (abiotic) degradation; and D) rates of disruption to biotic processes. A fifth criterion, E) quantitative estimates of the risk of ecosystem collapse, enables integrated assessment of multiple processes and provides a conceptual anchor for the other criteria. We present the theoretical rationale for the construction and interpretation of each criterion. The assessment protocol and threat categories mirror those of the IUCN Red List of species. A trial of the protocol on terrestrial, subterranean, freshwater and marine ecosystems from around the world shows that its concepts are workable and its outcomes are robust, that required data are available, and that results are consistent with assessments carried out by local experts and authorities. The new protocol provides a consistent, practical and theoretically grounded framework for establishing a systematic Red List of the world's ecosystems. This will complement the Red List of species and strengthen global capacity to report on and monitor the status of biodiversity.

Linking hydrology, ecosystem function, and livelihood sustainability in African papyrus wetlands using a Bayesian Network Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Dam, A.; Gettel, G. M.; Kipkemboi, J.; Rahman, M. M.

2011-12-01

Papyrus wetlands in East Africa provide ecosystem services supporting the livelihoods of millions but are rapidly degrading due to economic development. For ecosystem conservation, an integrated understanding of the natural and social processes driving ecosystem change is needed. This research focuses on integrating the causal relationships between hydrology, ecosystem function, and livelihood sustainability in Nyando wetland, western Kenya. Livelihood sustainability is based on ecosystem services that include plant and animal harvest for building material and food, conversion of wetlands to crop and grazing land, water supply, and water quality regulation. Specific objectives were: to integrate studies of hydrology, ecology, and livelihood activities using a Bayesian Network (BN) model and include stakeholder involvement in model development. The BN model (Netica 4.16) had 35 nodes with seven decision nodes describing demography, economy, papyrus market, and rainfall, and two target nodes describing ecosystem function (defined by groundwater recharge, nutrient and sediment retention, and biodiversity) and livelihood sustainability (drinking water supply, crop production, livestock production, and papyrus yield). The conditional probability tables were populated using results of ecohydrological and socio-economic field work and consultations with stakeholders. The model was evaluated for an average year with decision node probabilities set according to data from research, expert opinion, and stakeholders' views. Then, scenarios for dry and wet seasons and for economic development (low population growth and unemployment) and policy development (more awareness of wetland value) were evaluated. In an average year, the probability for maintaining a "good" level of sediment and nutrient retention functions, groundwater recharge, and biodiversity was about 60%. ("Good" is defined by expert opinion based on ongoing field research.) In the dry season, the probability was reduced to about 40% and in the wet season increased to about 85%. Both ecosystem functions and livelihood sustainability were most sensitive to flooding and the human pressure, notably the area of crop conversion, grazing pressure, and papyrus harvest. Flooded conditions limit cropping, livestock herding and vegetation harvesting but have a strong positive effect on ecosystem function. Preliminary results suggest that the effects of economic and policy development on ecosystem function and livelihood sustainability were negligible, but more data on these aspects will be included in further model development. The advantage of this modeling approach, which integrates data from hydrological, ecological, and socio-economic studies, is that it highlights the relative effect of hydrologic conditions and socio-economic pressures on ecosystem function. This model is static, however, with long-term changes in climate and exploitation levels superimposed on seasonal hydrology dynamics. Further work should address this issue as well as further constrain probabilities at each node as field research continues.

Global Patterns in Ecological Indicators of Marine Food Webs: A Modelling Approach

PubMed Central

Heymans, Johanna Jacomina; Coll, Marta; Libralato, Simone; Morissette, Lyne; Christensen, Villy

2014-01-01

Background Ecological attributes estimated from food web models have the potential to be indicators of good environmental status given their capabilities to describe redundancy, food web changes, and sensitivity to fishing. They can be used as a baseline to show how they might be modified in the future with human impacts such as climate change, acidification, eutrophication, or overfishing. Methodology In this study ecological network analysis indicators of 105 marine food web models were tested for variation with traits such as ecosystem type, latitude, ocean basin, depth, size, time period, and exploitation state, whilst also considering structural properties of the models such as number of linkages, number of living functional groups or total number of functional groups as covariate factors. Principal findings Eight indicators were robust to model construction: relative ascendency; relative overhead; redundancy; total systems throughput (TST); primary production/TST; consumption/TST; export/TST; and total biomass of the community. Large-scale differences were seen in the ecosystems of the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, with the Western Atlantic being more complex with an increased ability to mitigate impacts, while the Eastern Atlantic showed lower internal complexity. In addition, the Eastern Pacific was less organised than the Eastern Atlantic although both of these systems had increased primary production as eastern boundary current systems. Differences by ecosystem type highlighted coral reefs as having the largest energy flow and total biomass per unit of surface, while lagoons, estuaries, and bays had lower transfer efficiencies and higher recycling. These differences prevailed over time, although some traits changed with fishing intensity. Keystone groups were mainly higher trophic level species with mostly top-down effects, while structural/dominant groups were mainly lower trophic level groups (benthic primary producers such as seagrass and macroalgae, and invertebrates). Keystone groups were prevalent in estuarine or small/shallow systems, and in systems with reduced fishing pressure. Changes to the abundance of key functional groups might have significant implications for the functioning of ecosystems and should be avoided through management. Conclusion/significance Our results provide additional understanding of patterns of structural and functional indicators in different ecosystems. Ecosystem traits such as type, size, depth, and location need to be accounted for when setting reference levels as these affect absolute values of ecological indicators. Therefore, establishing absolute reference values for ecosystem indicators may not be suitable to the ecosystem-based, precautionary approach. Reference levels for ecosystem indicators should be developed for individual ecosystems or ecosystems with the same typologies (similar location, ecosystem type, etc.) and not benchmarked against all other ecosystems. PMID:24763610

Global patterns in ecological indicators of marine food webs: a modelling approach.

PubMed

Heymans, Johanna Jacomina; Coll, Marta; Libralato, Simone; Morissette, Lyne; Christensen, Villy

2014-01-01

Ecological attributes estimated from food web models have the potential to be indicators of good environmental status given their capabilities to describe redundancy, food web changes, and sensitivity to fishing. They can be used as a baseline to show how they might be modified in the future with human impacts such as climate change, acidification, eutrophication, or overfishing. In this study ecological network analysis indicators of 105 marine food web models were tested for variation with traits such as ecosystem type, latitude, ocean basin, depth, size, time period, and exploitation state, whilst also considering structural properties of the models such as number of linkages, number of living functional groups or total number of functional groups as covariate factors. Eight indicators were robust to model construction: relative ascendency; relative overhead; redundancy; total systems throughput (TST); primary production/TST; consumption/TST; export/TST; and total biomass of the community. Large-scale differences were seen in the ecosystems of the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, with the Western Atlantic being more complex with an increased ability to mitigate impacts, while the Eastern Atlantic showed lower internal complexity. In addition, the Eastern Pacific was less organised than the Eastern Atlantic although both of these systems had increased primary production as eastern boundary current systems. Differences by ecosystem type highlighted coral reefs as having the largest energy flow and total biomass per unit of surface, while lagoons, estuaries, and bays had lower transfer efficiencies and higher recycling. These differences prevailed over time, although some traits changed with fishing intensity. Keystone groups were mainly higher trophic level species with mostly top-down effects, while structural/dominant groups were mainly lower trophic level groups (benthic primary producers such as seagrass and macroalgae, and invertebrates). Keystone groups were prevalent in estuarine or small/shallow systems, and in systems with reduced fishing pressure. Changes to the abundance of key functional groups might have significant implications for the functioning of ecosystems and should be avoided through management. Our results provide additional understanding of patterns of structural and functional indicators in different ecosystems. Ecosystem traits such as type, size, depth, and location need to be accounted for when setting reference levels as these affect absolute values of ecological indicators. Therefore, establishing absolute reference values for ecosystem indicators may not be suitable to the ecosystem-based, precautionary approach. Reference levels for ecosystem indicators should be developed for individual ecosystems or ecosystems with the same typologies (similar location, ecosystem type, etc.) and not benchmarked against all other ecosystems.

Improving the precision of lake ecosystem metabolism estimates by identifying predictors of model uncertainty

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rose, Kevin C.; Winslow, Luke A.; Read, Jordan S.; Read, Emily K.; Solomon, Christopher T.; Adrian, Rita; Hanson, Paul C.

2014-01-01

Diel changes in dissolved oxygen are often used to estimate gross primary production (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (ER) in aquatic ecosystems. Despite the widespread use of this approach to understand ecosystem metabolism, we are only beginning to understand the degree and underlying causes of uncertainty for metabolism model parameter estimates. Here, we present a novel approach to improve the precision and accuracy of ecosystem metabolism estimates by identifying physical metrics that indicate when metabolism estimates are highly uncertain. Using datasets from seventeen instrumented GLEON (Global Lake Ecological Observatory Network) lakes, we discovered that many physical characteristics correlated with uncertainty, including PAR (photosynthetically active radiation, 400-700 nm), daily variance in Schmidt stability, and wind speed. Low PAR was a consistent predictor of high variance in GPP model parameters, but also corresponded with low ER model parameter variance. We identified a threshold (30% of clear sky PAR) below which GPP parameter variance increased rapidly and was significantly greater in nearly all lakes compared with variance on days with PAR levels above this threshold. The relationship between daily variance in Schmidt stability and GPP model parameter variance depended on trophic status, whereas daily variance in Schmidt stability was consistently positively related to ER model parameter variance. Wind speeds in the range of ~0.8-3 m s–1 were consistent predictors of high variance for both GPP and ER model parameters, with greater uncertainty in eutrophic lakes. Our findings can be used to reduce ecosystem metabolism model parameter uncertainty and identify potential sources of that uncertainty.

Sense of place: An elusive concept that is finding a home in ecosystem management

Treesearch

Daniel R. Williams; Susan I. Stewart

1998-01-01

One of the great and largely unmet challenges associated with ecosystem management is treating people as a rightful part of ecosystems. In many ecosystem models, despite occasional rhetoric to the contrary, there is still a tendency to treat people as autonomous individual agents outside the ecosystem, at best a source of values to be incorporated into decisions, at...

Measuring and Mapping the Topography of the Florida Everglades for Ecosystem Restoration

USGS Publications Warehouse

Desmond, Gregory B.

2003-01-01

One of the major issues facing ecosystem restoration and management of the Greater Everglades is the availability and distribution of clean, fresh water. The South Florida ecosystem encompasses an area of approximately 28,000 square kilometers and supports a human population that exceeds 5 million and is continuing to grow. The natural systems of the Kissimmee-Okeechobee-Everglades watershed compete for water resources primarily with the region's human population and urbanization, and with the agricultural and tourism industries. Surface water flow modeling and ecological modeling studies are important means of providing scientific information needed for ecosystem restoration planning and modeling. Hydrologic and ecological models provide much-needed predictive capabilities for evaluating management options for parks, refuges, and land acquisition and for understanding the impacts of land management practices in surrounding areas. These models require various input data, including elevation data that very accurately define the topography of the Florida Everglades.

Disturbance Distance: Using a process based ecosystem model to estimate and map potential thresholds in disturbance rates that would give rise to fundamentally altered ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dolan, K. A.; Hurtt, G. C.; Fisk, J.; Flanagan, S.; LePage, Y.; Sahajpal, R.

2014-12-01

Disturbance plays a critical role in shaping the structure and function of forested ecosystems as well as the ecosystem services they provide, including but not limited to: carbon storage, biodiversity habitat, water quality and flow, and land atmosphere exchanges of energy and water. As recent studies highlight novel disturbance regimes resulting from pollution, invasive pests and climate change, there is a need to include these alterations in predictions of future forest function and structure. The Ecosystem Demography (ED) model is a mechanistic model of forest ecosystem dynamics in which individual-based forest dynamics can be efficiently implemented over regional to global scales due to advanced scaling methods. We utilize ED to characterize the sensitivity of potential vegetation structure and function to changes in rates of density independent mortality. Disturbance rate within ED can either be altered directly or through the development of sub-models. Disturbance sub-models in ED currently include fire, land use and hurricanes. We use a tiered approach to understand the sensitivity of North American ecosystems to changes in background density independent mortality. Our first analyses were conducted at half-degree spatial resolution with a constant rate of disturbance in space and time, which was altered between runs. Annual climate was held constant at the site level and the land use and fire sub-models were turned off. Results showed an ~ 30% increase in non-forest area across the US when disturbance rates were changed from 0.6% a year to 1.2% a year and a more than 3.5 fold increase in non-forest area when disturbance rates doubled again from 1.2% to 2.4%. Continued runs altered natural background disturbance rates with the existing fire and hurricane sub models turned on as well as historic and future land use. By quantify differences between model outputs that characterize ecosystem structure and function related to the carbon cycle across the US, we are identifying areas and characteristics that display higher sensitivities to change in disturbance rates.

Bayesian calibration of terrestrial ecosystem models: a study of advanced Markov chain Monte Carlo methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, Dan; Ricciuto, Daniel; Walker, Anthony; Safta, Cosmin; Munger, William

2017-09-01

Calibration of terrestrial ecosystem models is important but challenging. Bayesian inference implemented by Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling provides a comprehensive framework to estimate model parameters and associated uncertainties using their posterior distributions. The effectiveness and efficiency of the method strongly depend on the MCMC algorithm used. In this work, a differential evolution adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) algorithm is used to estimate posterior distributions of 21 parameters for the data assimilation linked ecosystem carbon (DALEC) model using 14 years of daily net ecosystem exchange data collected at the Harvard Forest Environmental Measurement Site eddy-flux tower. The calibration of DREAM results in a better model fit and predictive performance compared to the popular adaptive Metropolis (AM) scheme. Moreover, DREAM indicates that two parameters controlling autumn phenology have multiple modes in their posterior distributions while AM only identifies one mode. The application suggests that DREAM is very suitable to calibrate complex terrestrial ecosystem models, where the uncertain parameter size is usually large and existence of local optima is always a concern. In addition, this effort justifies the assumptions of the error model used in Bayesian calibration according to the residual analysis. The result indicates that a heteroscedastic, correlated, Gaussian error model is appropriate for the problem, and the consequent constructed likelihood function can alleviate the underestimation of parameter uncertainty that is usually caused by using uncorrelated error models.

Biogeochemical modelling vs. tree-ring data - comparison of forest ecosystem productivity estimates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zorana Ostrogović Sever, Maša; Barcza, Zoltán; Hidy, Dóra; Paladinić, Elvis; Kern, Anikó; Marjanović, Hrvoje

2017-04-01

Forest ecosystems are sensitive to environmental changes as well as human-induce disturbances, therefore process-based models with integrated management modules represent valuable tool for estimating and forecasting forest ecosystem productivity under changing conditions. Biogeochemical model Biome-BGC simulates carbon, nitrogen and water fluxes, and it is widely used for different terrestrial ecosystems. It was modified and parameterised by many researchers in the past to meet the specific local conditions. In this research, we used recently published improved version of the model Biome-BGCMuSo (BBGCMuSo), with multilayer soil module and integrated management module. The aim of our research is to validate modelling results of forest ecosystem productivity (NPP) from BBGCMuSo model with observed productivity estimated from an extensive dataset of tree-rings. The research was conducted in two distinct forest complexes of managed Pedunculate oak in SE Europe (Croatia), namely Pokupsko basin and Spačva basin. First, we parameterized BBGCMuSo model at a local level using eddy-covariance (EC) data from Jastrebarsko EC site. Parameterized model was used for the assessment of productivity on a larger scale. Results of NPP assessment with BBGCMuSo are compared with NPP estimated from tree ring data taken from trees on over 100 plots in both forest complexes. Keywords: Biome-BGCMuSo, forest productivity, model parameterization, NPP, Pedunculate oak

Improved global simulation of groundwater-ecosystem interactions via tight coupling of a dynamic global ecosystem model and a global hydrological model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Braakhekke, Maarten; Rebel, Karin; Dekker, Stefan; Smith, Benjamin; Sutanudjaja, Edwin; van Beek, Rens; van Kampenhout, Leo; Wassen, Martin

2017-04-01

In up to 30% of the global land surface ecosystems are potentially influenced by the presence of a shallow groundwater table. In these regions upward water flux by capillary rise increases soil moisture availability in the root zone, which has a strong effect on evapotranspiration, vegetation dynamics, and fluxes of carbon and nitrogen. Most global hydrological models and several land surface models simulate groundwater table dynamics and their effects on land surface processes. However, these models typically have relatively simplistic representation of vegetation and do not consider changes in vegetation type and structure. Dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs), describe land surface from an ecological perspective, combining detailed description of vegetation dynamics and structure, and biogeochemical processes and are thus more appropriate to simulate the ecological and biogeochemical effects of groundwater interactions. However, currently virtually all DGVMs ignore these effects, assuming that water tables are too deep to affect soil moisture in the root zone. We have implemented a tight coupling between the dynamic global ecosystem model LPJ-GUESS and the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB, which explicitly simulates groundwater dynamics. This coupled model allows us to explicitly account for groundwater effects on terrestrial ecosystem processes at global scale. Results of global simulations indicate that groundwater strongly influences fluxes of water, carbon and nitrogen, in many regions, adding up to a considerable effect at the global scale.

Perturbations and gradients as fundamental tests for modeling the soil carbon cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bond-Lamberty, B. P.; Bailey, V. L.; Becker, K.; Fansler, S.; Hinkle, C.; Liu, C.

2013-12-01

An important step in matching process-level knowledge to larger-scale measurements and model results is to challenge those models with site-specific perturbations and/or changing environmental conditions. Here we subject modified versions of an ecosystem process model to two stringent tests: replicating a long-term climate change dryland experiment (Rattlesnake Mountain) and partitioning the carbon fluxes of a soil drainage gradient in the northern Everglades (Disney Wilderness Preserve). For both sites, on-site measurements were supplemented by laboratory incubations of soil columns. We used a parameter-space search algorithm to optimize, within observational limits, the model's influential inputs, so that the spun-up carbon stocks and fluxes matched observed values. Modeled carbon fluxes (net primary production and net ecosystem exchange) agreed with measured values, within observational error limits, but the model's partitioning of soil fluxes (autotrophic versus heterotrophic), did not match laboratory measurements from either site. Accounting for site heterogeneity at DWP, modeled carbon exchange was reasonably consistent with values from eddy covariance. We discuss the implications of this work for ecosystem- to global scale modeling of ecosystems in a changing climate.

Regional and climate forcing on forage fish and apex predators in the California Current: new insights from a fully coupled ecosystem model.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fiechter, J.; Rose, K.; Curchitser, E. N.; Huckstadt, L. A.; Costa, D. P.; Hedstrom, K.

2016-12-01

A fully coupled ecosystem model is used to describe the impact of regional and climate variability on changes in abundance and distribution of forage fish and apex predators in the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem. The ecosystem model consists of a biogeochemical submodel (NEMURO) embedded in a regional ocean circulation submodel (ROMS), and both coupled with a multi-species individual-based submodel for two forage fish species (sardine and anchovy) and one apex predator (California sea lion). Sardine and anchovy are specifically included in the model as they exhibit significant interannual and decadal variability in population abundances, and are commonly found in the diet of California sea lions. Output from the model demonstrates how regional-scale (i.e., upwelling intensity) and basin-scale (i.e., PDO and ENSO signals) physical processes control species distributions and predator-prey interactions on interannual time scales. The results also illustrate how variability in environmental conditions leads to the formation of seasonal hotspots where prey and predator spatially overlap. While specifically focused on sardine, anchovy and sea lions, the modeling framework presented here can provide new insights into the physical and biological mechanisms controlling trophic interactions in the California Current, or other regions where similar end-to-end ecosystem models may be implemented.

The exploration of trophic structure modeling using mass balance Ecopath model of Tangerang coastal waters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dewi, N. N.; Kamal, M.; Wardiatno, Y.; Rozi

2018-04-01

Ecopath model approach was used to describe trophic interaction, energy flows and ecosystem condition of Tangerang coastal waters. This model consists of 42 ecological groups, of which 41 are living groups and one is a detritus group. Trophic levels of these groups vary between 1.0 (for primary producers and detritus) to 4.03 (for tetraodontidae). Groups with trophic levels 2≤TL<3 and 3≤TL<4 have a range of ecotropic efficiency from 0 to 0.9719 and 0 to 0.7520 respectively.The Mean transfer efficiency is 9.43% for phytoplankton and 3.39% for detritus. The Mixed trophic impact analysis indicates that phytoplankton havea positive impact on the majority of pelagic fish, while detritus has a positive impact on the majority of demersal fish. Leiognathidae havea negative impact on phytoplankton, zooplankton and several other groups. System omnivory index for this ecosystem is 0.151. System primary production/respiration (P/R) ratio of Tangerang coastal waters is 1.505. This coastal ecosystem is an immatureecosystem because it hasdegraded. Pedigree index for this model is 0.57. This model describes ecosystem condition affected by overfishing and antropogenic activities. Therefore, through Ecopath model we provide some suggestions about the ecosystem-based fisheries management.

Challenges and opportunities for integrating lake ecosystem modelling approaches

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mooij, Wolf M.; Trolle, Dennis; Jeppesen, Erik; Arhonditsis, George; Belolipetsky, Pavel V.; Chitamwebwa, Deonatus B.R.; Degermendzhy, Andrey G.; DeAngelis, Donald L.; Domis, Lisette N. De Senerpont; Downing, Andrea S.; Elliott, J. Alex; Ruberto, Carlos Ruberto; Gaedke, Ursula; Genova, Svetlana N.; Gulati, Ramesh D.; Hakanson, Lars; Hamilton, David P.; Hipsey, Matthew R.; Hoen, Jochem 't; Hulsmann, Stephan; Los, F. Hans; Makler-Pick, Vardit; Petzoldt, Thomas; Prokopkin, Igor G.; Rinke, Karsten; Schep, Sebastiaan A.; Tominaga, Koji; Van Dam, Anne A.; Van Nes, Egbert H.; Wells, Scott A.; Janse, Jan H.

2010-01-01

A large number and wide variety of lake ecosystem models have been developed and published during the past four decades. We identify two challenges for making further progress in this field. One such challenge is to avoid developing more models largely following the concept of others ('reinventing the wheel'). The other challenge is to avoid focusing on only one type of model, while ignoring new and diverse approaches that have become available ('having tunnel vision'). In this paper, we aim at improving the awareness of existing models and knowledge of concurrent approaches in lake ecosystem modelling, without covering all possible model tools and avenues. First, we present a broad variety of modelling approaches. To illustrate these approaches, we give brief descriptions of rather arbitrarily selected sets of specific models. We deal with static models (steady state and regression models), complex dynamic models (CAEDYM, CE-QUAL-W2, Delft 3D-ECO, LakeMab, LakeWeb, MyLake, PCLake, PROTECH, SALMO), structurally dynamic models and minimal dynamic models. We also discuss a group of approaches that could all be classified as individual based: super-individual models (Piscator, Charisma), physiologically structured models, stage-structured models and trait-based models. We briefly mention genetic algorithms, neural networks, Kalman filters and fuzzy logic. Thereafter, we zoom in, as an in-depth example, on the multi-decadal development and application of the lake ecosystem model PCLake and related models (PCLake Metamodel, Lake Shira Model, IPH-TRIM3D-PCLake). In the discussion, we argue that while the historical development of each approach and model is understandable given its 'leading principle', there are many opportunities for combining approaches. We take the point of view that a single 'right' approach does not exist and should not be strived for. Instead, multiple modelling approaches, applied concurrently to a given problem, can help develop an integrative view on the functioning of lake ecosystems. We end with a set of specific recommendations that may be of help in the further development of lake ecosystem models.

Assessing ecosystem response to multiple disturbances and climate change in South Africa using ground- and satellite-based measurements and model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kutsch, W. L.; Falge, E. M.; Brümmer, C.; Mukwashi, K.; Schmullius, C.; Hüttich, C.; Odipo, V.; Scholes, R. J.; Mudau, A.; Midgley, G.; Stevens, N.; Hickler, T.; Scheiter, S.; Martens, C.; Twine, W.; Iiyambo, T.; Bradshaw, K.; Lück, W.; Lenfers, U.; Thiel-Clemen, T.; du Toit, J.

2015-12-01

Sub-Saharan Africa currently experiences rapidly growing human population, intrinsically tied to substantial changes in land use on shrubland, savanna and mixed woodland ecosystems due to over-exploitation. Significant conversions driving degradation, affecting fire frequency and water availability, and fueling climate change are expected to increase in the immediate future. However, measured data of greenhouse gas emissions as affected by land use change are scarce to entirely lacking from this region. The project 'Adaptive Resilience of Southern African Ecosystems' (ARS AfricaE) conducts research and develops scenarios of ecosystem development under climate change, for management support in conservation or for planning rural area development. This will be achieved by (1) creation of a network of research clusters (paired sites with natural and altered vegetation) along an aridity gradient in South Africa for ground-based micrometeorological in-situ measurements of energy and matter fluxes, (2) linking biogeochemical functions with ecosystem structure, and eco-physiological properties, (3) description of ecosystem disturbance (and recovery) in terms of ecosystem function such as carbon balance components and water use efficiency, (4) set-up of individual-based models to predict ecosystem dynamics under (post) disturbance managements, (5) combination with long-term landscape dynamic information derived from remote sensing and aerial photography, and (6) development of sustainable management strategies for disturbed ecosystems and land use change. Emphasis is given on validation (by a suite of field measurements) of estimates obtained from eddy covariance, model approaches and satellite derivations.

Ecosystem shifts under climate change - a multi-model analysis from ISI-MIP

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Warszawski, Lila; Beerling, David; Clark, Douglas; Friend, Andrew; Ito, Akihito; Kahana, Ron; Keribin, Rozenn; Kleidon, Axel; Lomas, Mark; Lucht, Wolfgang; Nishina, Kazuya; Ostberg, Sebastian; Pavlick, Ryan; Tito Rademacher, Tim; Schaphoff, Sibyll

2013-04-01

Dramatic ecosystem shifts, relating to vegetation composition and water and carbon stocks and fluxes, are potential consequences of climate change in the twenty-first century. Shifting climatic conditions, resulting in changes in biogeochemical properties of the ecosystem, will render it difficult for endemic plant and animal species to continue to survive in their current habitat. The potential for major shifts in biomes globally will also have severe consequences for the humans who rely on vital ecosystem services. Here we employ a novel metric of ecosystem shift to quantify the magnitude and uncertainty in these shifts at different levels of global warming, based on the response of seven biogeochemical Earth models to different future climate scenarios, in the context of the Intersectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP). Based on this ensemble, 15% of the Earth's land surface will experience severe ecosystem shifts at 2°C degrees of global warming above 1980-2010 levels. This figure rises monotonically with global mean temperature for all models included in this study, reaching a median value of 60% of the land surface in a 4°C warmer world. At both 2°C and 4°C of warming, the most pronounced shifts occur in south-eastern India and south-western China, large swathes of the northern lattitudes above 60°N, the Amazon region and sub-Saharan Africa. Where dynamic vegetation composition is modelled, these shifts correspond to significant reductions in the land surface of vunerable vegetation types. We show that global mean temperature is a robust predictor of ecosystem shifts, whilst the spread across impact models is the greatest contributor to uncertainty.

Exploring eco-hydrological consequences of the Amazonian ecosystems under climate and land-use changes in the 21st century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, K.; Castanho, A. D.; Moghim, S.; Bras, R. L.; Coe, M. T.; Costa, M. H.; Levine, N. M.; Longo, M.; McKnight, S.; Wang, J.; Moorcroft, P. R.

2012-12-01

Deforestation and drought have imposed regional-scale perturbations onto Amazonian ecosystems and are predicted to cause larger negative impacts on the Amazonian ecosystems and associated regional carbon dynamics in the 21st century. However, global climate models (GCMs) vary greatly in their projections of future climate change in Amazonia, giving rise to uncertainty in the expected fate of the Amazon over the coming century. In this study, we explore the possible eco-hydrological consequences of the Amazonian ecosystems under projected climate and land-use changes in the 21st century using two state-of-the-art terrestrial ecosystem models—Ecosystem Demography Model 2.1(ED2.1) and Integrated Biosphere Simulator model (IBIS)—driven by three representative, bias-corrected climate projections from three IPCC GCMs (NCARPCM1, NCARCCSM3 and HadCM3), coupled with two land-use change scenarios (a business-as-usual and a strict governance scenario). We also analyze the relative roles of climate change, CO2 fertilization, land-use change and fire in driving the projected composition and structure of the Amazonian ecosystems. Our results show that CO2 fertilization enhances vegetation productivity and above-ground biomass (AGB) in the region, while land-use change and fire cause AGB loss and the replacement of forests by the savanna-like vegetation. The impacts of climate change depend strongly on the direction and severity of projected precipitation changes in the region. In particular, when intensified water stress is superimposed on unregulated deforestation, both ecosystem models predict large-scale dieback of Amazonian rainforests.

Estimating the impacts of conservation on ecosystem services and poverty by integrating modeling and evaluation.

PubMed

Ferraro, Paul J; Hanauer, Merlin M; Miteva, Daniela A; Nelson, Joanna L; Pattanayak, Subhrendu K; Nolte, Christoph; Sims, Katharine R E

2015-06-16

Scholars have made great advances in modeling and mapping ecosystem services, and in assigning economic values to these services. This modeling and valuation scholarship is often disconnected from evidence about how actual conservation programs have affected ecosystem services, however. Without a stronger evidence base, decision makers find it difficult to use the insights from modeling and valuation to design effective policies and programs. To strengthen the evidence base, scholars have advanced our understanding of the causal pathways between conservation actions and environmental outcomes, but their studies measure impacts on imperfect proxies for ecosystem services (e.g., avoidance of deforestation). To be useful to decision makers, these impacts must be translated into changes in ecosystem services and values. To illustrate how this translation can be done, we estimated the impacts of protected areas in Brazil, Costa Rica, Indonesia, and Thailand on carbon storage in forests. We found that protected areas in these conservation hotspots have stored at least an additional 1,000 Mt of CO2 in forests and have delivered ecosystem services worth at least $5 billion. This aggregate impact masks important spatial heterogeneity, however. Moreover, the spatial variability of impacts on carbon storage is the not the same as the spatial variability of impacts on avoided deforestation. These findings lead us to describe a research program that extends our framework to study other ecosystem services, to uncover the mechanisms by which ecosystem protection benefits humans, and to tie cost-benefit analyses to conservation planning so that we can obtain the greatest return on scarce conservation funds.

Estimating the impacts of conservation on ecosystem services and poverty by integrating modeling and evaluation

PubMed Central

Ferraro, Paul J.; Hanauer, Merlin M.; Miteva, Daniela A.; Nelson, Joanna L.; Pattanayak, Subhrendu K.; Nolte, Christoph; Sims, Katharine R. E.

2015-01-01

Scholars have made great advances in modeling and mapping ecosystem services, and in assigning economic values to these services. This modeling and valuation scholarship is often disconnected from evidence about how actual conservation programs have affected ecosystem services, however. Without a stronger evidence base, decision makers find it difficult to use the insights from modeling and valuation to design effective policies and programs. To strengthen the evidence base, scholars have advanced our understanding of the causal pathways between conservation actions and environmental outcomes, but their studies measure impacts on imperfect proxies for ecosystem services (e.g., avoidance of deforestation). To be useful to decision makers, these impacts must be translated into changes in ecosystem services and values. To illustrate how this translation can be done, we estimated the impacts of protected areas in Brazil, Costa Rica, Indonesia, and Thailand on carbon storage in forests. We found that protected areas in these conservation hotspots have stored at least an additional 1,000 Mt of CO2 in forests and have delivered ecosystem services worth at least $5 billion. This aggregate impact masks important spatial heterogeneity, however. Moreover, the spatial variability of impacts on carbon storage is the not the same as the spatial variability of impacts on avoided deforestation. These findings lead us to describe a research program that extends our framework to study other ecosystem services, to uncover the mechanisms by which ecosystem protection benefits humans, and to tie cost-benefit analyses to conservation planning so that we can obtain the greatest return on scarce conservation funds. PMID:26082549

Ecosystem Services Flows: Why Stakeholders' Power Relationships Matter.

PubMed

Felipe-Lucia, María R; Martín-López, Berta; Lavorel, Sandra; Berraquero-Díaz, Luis; Escalera-Reyes, Javier; Comín, Francisco A

2015-01-01

The ecosystem services framework has enabled the broader public to acknowledge the benefits nature provides to different stakeholders. However, not all stakeholders benefit equally from these services. Rather, power relationships are a key factor influencing the access of individuals or groups to ecosystem services. In this paper, we propose an adaptation of the "cascade" framework for ecosystem services to integrate the analysis of ecological interactions among ecosystem services and stakeholders' interactions, reflecting power relationships that mediate ecosystem services flows. We illustrate its application using the floodplain of the River Piedra (Spain) as a case study. First, we used structural equation modelling (SEM) to model the dependence relationships among ecosystem services. Second, we performed semi-structured interviews to identify formal power relationships among stakeholders. Third, we depicted ecosystem services according to stakeholders' ability to use, manage or impair ecosystem services in order to expose how power relationships mediate access to ecosystem services. Our results revealed that the strongest power was held by those stakeholders who managed (although did not use) those keystone ecosystem properties and services that determine the provision of other services (i.e., intermediate regulating and final services). In contrast, non-empowered stakeholders were only able to access the remaining non-excludable and non-rival ecosystem services (i.e., some of the cultural services, freshwater supply, water quality, and biological control). In addition, land stewardship, access rights, and governance appeared as critical factors determining the status of ecosystem services. Finally, we stress the need to analyse the role of stakeholders and their relationships to foster equal access to ecosystem services.

Ecosystem Services Flows: Why Stakeholders’ Power Relationships Matter

PubMed Central

Felipe-Lucia, María R.; Martín-López, Berta; Lavorel, Sandra; Berraquero-Díaz, Luis; Escalera-Reyes, Javier; Comín, Francisco A.

2015-01-01

The ecosystem services framework has enabled the broader public to acknowledge the benefits nature provides to different stakeholders. However, not all stakeholders benefit equally from these services. Rather, power relationships are a key factor influencing the access of individuals or groups to ecosystem services. In this paper, we propose an adaptation of the “cascade” framework for ecosystem services to integrate the analysis of ecological interactions among ecosystem services and stakeholders’ interactions, reflecting power relationships that mediate ecosystem services flows. We illustrate its application using the floodplain of the River Piedra (Spain) as a case study. First, we used structural equation modelling (SEM) to model the dependence relationships among ecosystem services. Second, we performed semi-structured interviews to identify formal power relationships among stakeholders. Third, we depicted ecosystem services according to stakeholders’ ability to use, manage or impair ecosystem services in order to expose how power relationships mediate access to ecosystem services. Our results revealed that the strongest power was held by those stakeholders who managed (although did not use) those keystone ecosystem properties and services that determine the provision of other services (i.e., intermediate regulating and final services). In contrast, non-empowered stakeholders were only able to access the remaining non-excludable and non-rival ecosystem services (i.e., some of the cultural services, freshwater supply, water quality, and biological control). In addition, land stewardship, access rights, and governance appeared as critical factors determining the status of ecosystem services. Finally, we stress the need to analyse the role of stakeholders and their relationships to foster equal access to ecosystem services. PMID:26201000

Intelligent Model Management in a Forest Ecosystem Management Decision Support System

Treesearch

Donald Nute; Walter D. Potter; Frederick Maier; Jin Wang; Mark Twery; H. Michael Rauscher; Peter Knopp; Scott Thomasma; Mayukh Dass; Hajime Uchiyama

2002-01-01

Decision making for forest ecosystem management can include the use of a wide variety of modeling tools. These tools include vegetation growth models, wildlife models, silvicultural models, GIS, and visualization tools. NED-2 is a robust, intelligent, goal-driven decision support system that integrates tools in each of these categories. NED-2 uses a blackboard...

Estimating Rates of Permafrost Degradation and their Impact on Ecosystems across Alaska and Northwest Canada using the Process-based Permafrost Dynamics Model GIPL as a Component of the Integrated Ecosystem Model (IEM)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marchenko, S. S.; Genet, H.; Euskirchen, E. S.; Breen, A. L.; McGuire, A. D.; Rupp, S. T.; Romanovsky, V. E.; Bolton, W. R.; Walsh, J. E.

2016-12-01

The impact of climate warming on permafrost and the potential of climate feedbacks resulting from permafrost thawing have recently received a great deal of attention. Permafrost temperature has increased in most locations in the Arctic and Sub-Arctic during the past 30-40 years. The typical increase in permafrost temperature is 1-3°C. The process-based permafrost dynamics model GIPL developed in the Geophysical Institute Permafrost Lab, and which is the permafrost module of the Integrated Ecosystem Model (IEM) has been using to quantify the nature and rate of permafrost degradation and its impact on ecosystems, infrastructure, CO2 and CH4fluxes and net C storage following permafrost thaw across Alaska and Northwest Canada. The IEM project is a multi-institutional and multi-disciplinary effort aimed at understanding potential landscape, habitat and ecosystem change across the IEM domain. The IEM project also aims to tie three scientific models together Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM), the ALFRESCO (ALaska FRame-based EcoSystem Code) and GIPL so that they exchange data at run-time. The models produce forecasts of future fire, vegetation, organic matter, permafrost and hydrology regimes. The climate forcing data are based on the historical CRU3.1 data set for the retrospective analysis period (1901-2009) and the CMIP3 CCCMA-CGCM3.1 and MPI-ECHAM5/MPI-OM climate models for the future period (2009-2100). All data sets were downscaled to a 1 km resolution, using a differencing methodology (i.e., a delta method) and the Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) climatology. We estimated the dynamics of permafrost temperature, active layer thickness, area occupied by permafrost, and volume of thawed soils across the IEM domain. The modeling results indicate how different types of ecosystems affect the thermal state of permafrost and its stability. Although the rate of soil warming and permafrost degradation in peatland areas are slower than other areas, a considerable volume of peat will be thawed by the end of the current century. The release of carbon and the net effect of this thawing depends on the balance between increased productivity and respiration, which depend, in part, on soil moisture dynamics.

Hybrid modeling approach for the northern Adriatic watershed management.

PubMed

Volf, Goran; Atanasova, Nataša; Škerjanec, Mateja; Ožanić, Nevenka

2018-04-23

Northern Adriatic (NA) is one of the most productive parts of the Mediterranean Sea due to vast nutrient discharges from the contributing watershed. To understand better the excess of nutrients as stressors to the state of the marine ecosystem, a hybrid modeling approach following the DPSIR framework and terminology was developed, linking: 1) the AVGWLF model for modeling the pressures, i.e. nutrients originating from the watershed caused by two major drivers (urbanization and agriculture), 2) the ML tool MTSMOTI for inducing a model tree connecting the pressures with the marine ecosystem state, and 3) the water quality index, TRIX, equation to evaluate the trophic state of the marine ecosystem. Data used for the modeling purpose comprised GIS layers (i.e., digital terrain model, land use/cover data, soil map, locations of hydro-meteorological stations and WWTPs), time series data (i.e., hydro-meteorological data and nutrient concentrations), and statistical data (i.e., number of inhabitants, connections to wastewater treatment, livestock statistics, etc.) as well as physical, chemical and biological parameters, measured at six marine water monitoring stations, located between the Po River delta (Italy) and the city of Rovinj (west Istrian coast, Croatia). Using the model, seven watershed management scenarios related to wastewater treatment and agricultural activities were evaluated for their influence on the state of the NA marine ecosystem. According to the results, the gradual implementation of the UWWTD in the last 10years contributed significantly to the preservation and improvement of the NA marine ecosystem state. However, despite the full implementation of the UWWTD, the state of the NA marine ecosystem could deteriorate in case of increased nutrient loads from agriculture. Since the UWWTD is already close to its full implementation, NA watershed management should focus on controlling agricultural activities in order to maintain 'high' state of the NA marine ecosystem. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Decadal trends in the seasonal-cycle amplitude of terrestrial CO 2 exchange resulting from the ensemble of terrestrial biosphere models

DOE PAGES

Ito, Akihiko; Inatomi, Motoko; Huntzinger, Deborah N.; ...

2016-05-12

The seasonal-cycle amplitude (SCA) of the atmosphere–ecosystem carbon dioxide (CO 2) exchange rate is a useful metric of the responsiveness of the terrestrial biosphere to environmental variations. It is unclear, however, what underlying mechanisms are responsible for the observed increasing trend of SCA in atmospheric CO 2 concentration. Using output data from the Multi-scale Terrestrial Model Intercomparison Project (MsTMIP), we investigated how well the SCA of atmosphere–ecosystem CO 2 exchange was simulated with 15 contemporary terrestrial ecosystem models during the period 1901–2010. Also, we made attempt to evaluate the contributions of potential mechanisms such as atmospheric CO 2, climate, land-use,more » and nitrogen deposition, through factorial experiments using different combinations of forcing data. Under contemporary conditions, the simulated global-scale SCA of the cumulative net ecosystem carbon flux of most models was comparable in magnitude with the SCA of atmospheric CO 2 concentrations. Results from factorial simulation experiments showed that elevated atmospheric CO 2 exerted a strong influence on the seasonality amplification. When the model considered not only climate change but also land-use and atmospheric CO 2 changes, the majority of the models showed amplification trends of the SCAs of photosynthesis, respiration, and net ecosystem production (+0.19 % to +0.50 % yr –1). In the case of land-use change, it was difficult to separate the contribution of agricultural management to SCA because of inadequacies in both the data and models. The simulated amplification of SCA was approximately consistent with the observational evidence of the SCA in atmospheric CO 2 concentrations. Large inter-model differences remained, however, in the simulated global tendencies and spatial patterns of CO 2 exchanges. Further studies are required to identify a consistent explanation for the simulated and observed amplification trends, including their underlying mechanisms. Furthermore, this study implied that monitoring of ecosystem seasonality would provide useful insights concerning ecosystem dynamics.« less

Are more complex physiological models of forest ecosystems better choices for plot and regional predictions?

Treesearch

Wenchi Jin; Hong S. He; Frank R. Thompson

2016-01-01

Process-based forest ecosystem models vary from simple physiological, complex physiological, to hybrid empirical-physiological models. Previous studies indicate that complex models provide the best prediction at plot scale with a temporal extent of less than 10 years, however, it is largely untested as to whether complex models outperform the other two types of models...

Secondary Students' Dynamic Modeling Processes: Analyzing, Reasoning About, Synthesizing, and Testing Models of Stream Ecosystems.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stratford, Steven J.; Krajeik, Joseph; Soloway, Elliot

This paper presents the results of a study of the cognitive strategies in which ninth-grade science students engaged as they used a learner-centered dynamic modeling tool (called Model-It) to make original models based upon stream ecosystem scenarios. The research questions were: (1) In what Cognitive Strategies for Modeling (analyzing, reasoning,…

Same pattern, different mechanism: Locking onto the role of key species in seafloor ecosystem process

PubMed Central

Woodin, Sarah Ann; Volkenborn, Nils; Pilditch, Conrad A.; Lohrer, Andrew M.; Wethey, David S.; Hewitt, Judi E.; Thrush, Simon F.

2016-01-01

Seafloor biodiversity is a key mediator of ecosystem functioning, but its role is often excluded from global budgets or simplified to black boxes in models. New techniques allow quantification of the behavior of animals living below the sediment surface and assessment of the ecosystem consequences of complex interactions, yielding a better understanding of the role of seafloor animals in affecting key processes like primary productivity. Combining predictions based on natural history, behavior of key benthic species and environmental context allow assessment of differences in functioning and process, even when the measured ecosystem property in different systems is similar. Data from three sedimentary systems in New Zealand illustrate this. Analysis of the behaviors of the infaunal ecosystem engineers in each system revealed three very different mechanisms driving ecosystem function: density and excretion, sediment turnover and surface rugosity, and hydraulic activities and porewater bioadvection. Integrative metrics of ecosystem function in some cases differentiate among the systems (gross primary production) and in others do not (photosynthetic efficiency). Analyses based on behaviors and activities revealed important ecosystem functional differences and can dramatically improve our ability to model the impact of stressors on ecosystem and global processes. PMID:27230562

Same pattern, different mechanism: Locking onto the role of key species in seafloor ecosystem process.

PubMed

Woodin, Sarah Ann; Volkenborn, Nils; Pilditch, Conrad A; Lohrer, Andrew M; Wethey, David S; Hewitt, Judi E; Thrush, Simon F

2016-05-27

Seafloor biodiversity is a key mediator of ecosystem functioning, but its role is often excluded from global budgets or simplified to black boxes in models. New techniques allow quantification of the behavior of animals living below the sediment surface and assessment of the ecosystem consequences of complex interactions, yielding a better understanding of the role of seafloor animals in affecting key processes like primary productivity. Combining predictions based on natural history, behavior of key benthic species and environmental context allow assessment of differences in functioning and process, even when the measured ecosystem property in different systems is similar. Data from three sedimentary systems in New Zealand illustrate this. Analysis of the behaviors of the infaunal ecosystem engineers in each system revealed three very different mechanisms driving ecosystem function: density and excretion, sediment turnover and surface rugosity, and hydraulic activities and porewater bioadvection. Integrative metrics of ecosystem function in some cases differentiate among the systems (gross primary production) and in others do not (photosynthetic efficiency). Analyses based on behaviors and activities revealed important ecosystem functional differences and can dramatically improve our ability to model the impact of stressors on ecosystem and global processes.

Top 10 principles for designing healthy coastal ecosystems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gaydos, Joseph K.; Dierauf, Leslie; Kirby, Grant; Brosnan, Deborah; Gilardi, Kirsten; Davis, Gary E.

2008-01-01

Like other coastal zones around the world, the inland sea ecosystem of Washington (USA) and British Columbia (Canada), an area known as the Salish Sea, is changing under pressure from a growing human population, conversion of native forest and shoreline habitat to urban development, toxic contamination of sediments and species, and overharvest of resources. While billions of dollars have been spent trying to restore other coastal ecosystems around the world, there still is no successful model for restoring estuarine or marine ecosystems like the Salish Sea. Despite the lack of a guiding model, major ecological principles do exist that should be applied as people work to design the Salish Sea and other large marine ecosystems for the future. We suggest that the following 10 ecological principles serve as a foundation for educating the public and for designing a healthy Salish Sea and other coastal ecosystems for future generations: (1) Think ecosystem: political boundaries are arbitrary; (2) Account for ecosystem connectivity; (3) Understand the food web; (4) Avoid fragmentation; (5) Respect ecosystem integrity; (6) Support nature's resilience; (7) Value nature: it's money in your pocket; (8) Watch wildlife health; (9) Plan for extremes; and (10) Share the knowledge.

Degradation and damages from utilizing ecosystem services in a river basin

Treesearch

Travis W. Warziniack

2012-01-01

We examine the tradeoffs between utilizing multiple ecosystem services in an economic model of the Lower Mississippi-Atchafalaya River Basin. We show how economic development in the basin degraded the ecosystem, but diversified the economy. A degraded ecosystem and more employment opportunities elsewhere reduced the region's reliance on agriculture and other...

Using Landscape Hierarchies To Guide Restoration Of Disturbed Ecosystems

Treesearch

Brian J. Palik; Charles P. Goebel; Katherine L. Kirkman; Larry West

2000-01-01

Reestablishing native plant communities is an important focus of ecosystem restoration. In complex landscapes containing a diversity of ecosystem types, restoration requires a set of reference vegetation conditions for the ecosystems of concern, and a predictive model to relate plant community composition to physical variables. Restoration also requires an approach for...

Ecosystem services and emergent vulnerability in managed ecosystems: A geospatial decision-support tool

Treesearch

Colin M. Beier; Trista M. Patterson; F. Stuart Chapin III

2008-01-01

Managed ecosystems experience vulnerabilities when ecological resilience declines and key flows of ecosystem services become depleted or lost. Drivers of vulnerability often include local management actions in conjunction with other external, larger scale factors. To translate these concepts to management applications, we developed a conceptual model of feedbacks...

Recent drought effects on ecosystem carbon uptake in California ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, M.; Guan, K.; Brodrick, P. G.; Berry, J. A.; Asner, G. P.

2016-12-01

California is one of the Earth's most biodiverse places and most of California has experienced an extreme (millennium scale) drought in the period of 2012-2015. Although the effect of the drought on the water resources have been well studied, the responses of ecosystems has not been explored in this detail. This study used advanced remotely sensed data (e.g., remotely sensed vegetation indices and solar-induced fluorescence), an ecosystem model, and model-data fusion techniques to study the impacts of the severe drought on ecosystem carbon uptakes in California. We have found that: (1) the drought has significantly suppressed carbon uptake and light use efficiency in California ecosystems - except in the semi-deserts, and the moist forests in the northern coast; (2) effects on the photosynthetic capacity of the ecosystems extends after the drought is relieved; and (3) the drought has shifted both the timing and magnitude of the seasonality of the carbon uptake in non-forested regions. These findings provide a better understanding of the impacts of droughts, and provide an improved basis for prediction of ecosystem responses under a more extreme climate in the future.

Genetic information and ecosystem health: arguments for the application of chaos theory to identify boundary conditions for ecosystem management.

PubMed Central

Stomp, A M

1994-01-01

To meet the demands for goods and services of an exponentially growing human population, global ecosystems will come under increasing human management. The hallmark of successful ecosystem management will be long-term ecosystem stability. Ecosystems and the genetic information and processes which underlie interactions of organisms with the environment in populations and communities exhibit behaviors which have nonlinear characteristics. Nonlinear mathematical formulations describing deterministic chaos have been used successfully to model such systems in physics, chemistry, economics, physiology, and epidemiology. This approach can be extended to ecotoxicology and can be used to investigate how changes in genetic information determine the behavior of populations and communities. This article seeks to provide the arguments for such an approach and to give initial direction to the search for the boundary conditions within which lies ecosystem stability. The identification of a theoretical framework for ecotoxicology and the parameters which drive the underlying model is a critical component in the formulation of a prioritized research agenda and appropriate ecosystem management policy and regulation. PMID:7713038

Mathematical modeling relevant to closed artificial ecosystems

USGS Publications Warehouse

DeAngelis, D.L.

2003-01-01

The mathematical modeling of ecosystems has contributed much to the understanding of the dynamics of such systems. Ecosystems can include not only the natural variety, but also artificial systems designed and controlled by humans. These can range from agricultural systems and activated sludge plants, down to mesocosms, microcosms, and aquaria, which may have practical or research applications. Some purposes may require the design of systems that are completely closed, as far as material cycling is concerned. In all cases, mathematical modeling can help not only to understand the dynamics of the system, but also to design methods of control to keep the system operating in desired ranges. This paper reviews mathematical modeling relevant to the simulation and control of closed or semi-closed artificial ecosystems designed for biological production and recycling in applications in space. Published by Elsevier Science Ltd on behalf of COSPAR.

Use of an ecosystem model for testing ecosystem response to inaccuracies of root and microflora productivity estimates

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Petersen, H.; O'Neill, R.V.; Gardner, R.H.

1984-01-01

A seventy-compartment model for a Danish beech forest ecosystem is described in outline. The unmodified model predicts considerable accumulation of wood litter and decreasing accumulation through secondary to final decomposition products. Increment rates are similar for all components of the detritus based food chain. Modification of fine root production rate produces strong, positive response for root litter, and less, but still significant, response for detritus, humus and the components of the decomposer food chain. Increase of microbial biomass with adjustments of metabolism and production causes reduced accumulation of detritus and humus. The soil organisms respond according to food source. Themore » use of the model for testing the sensitivity of the ecosystem to inaccuracies of rroot- and microflora estimates is discussed. 21 references, 3 figures, 1 table.« less

Ecological Footprint and Ecosystem Services Models: A Comparative Analysis of Environmental Carrying Capacity Calculation Approach in Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Subekti, R. M.; Suroso, D. S. A.

2018-05-01

Calculation of environmental carrying capacity can be done by various approaches. The selection of an appropriate approach determines the success of determining and applying environmental carrying capacity. This study aimed to compare the ecological footprint approach and the ecosystem services approach for calculating environmental carrying capacity. It attempts to describe two relatively new models that require further explanation if they are used to calculate environmental carrying capacity. In their application, attention needs to be paid to their respective advantages and weaknesses. Conceptually, the ecological footprint model is more complete than the ecosystem services model, because it describes the supply and demand of resources, including supportive and assimilative capacity of the environment, and measurable output through a resource consumption threshold. However, this model also has weaknesses, such as not considering technological change and resources beneath the earth’s surface, as well as the requirement to provide trade data between regions for calculating at provincial and district level. The ecosystem services model also has advantages, such as being in line with strategic environmental assessment (SEA) of ecosystem services, using spatial analysis based on ecoregions, and a draft regulation on calculation guidelines formulated by the government. Meanwhile, weaknesses are that it only describes the supply of resources, that the assessment of the different types of ecosystem services by experts tends to be subjective, and that the output of the calculation lacks a resource consumption threshold.

State-and-transition model archetypes: a global taxonomy of rangeland change

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

State and transition models (STMs) synthesize science-based and local knowledge to formally represent the dynamics of rangeland and other ecosystems. Mental models or concepts of ecosystem dynamics implicitly underlie all management decisions in rangelands and thus how people influence rangeland sus...

A probabilistic process model for pelagic marine ecosystems informed by Bayesian inverse analysis

EPA Science Inventory

Marine ecosystems are complex systems with multiple pathways that produce feedback cycles, which may lead to unanticipated effects. Models abstract this complexity and allow us to predict, understand, and hypothesize. In ecological models, however, the paucity of empirical data...

PESTICIDE ORCHARD ECOSYSTEM MODEL (POEM): A USER'S GUIDE

EPA Science Inventory

A mathematical model was developed to predict the transport and effects of a pesticide in an orchard ecosystem. The environmental behavior of azinphosmethyl was studied over a two-year period in a Michigan apple orchard. Data were gathered for the model on initial distribution wi...

Biodiversity and ecosystem stability across scales in metacommunities.

PubMed

Wang, Shaopeng; Loreau, Michel

2016-05-01

Although diversity-stability relationships have been extensively studied in local ecosystems, the global biodiversity crisis calls for an improved understanding of these relationships in a spatial context. Here, we use a dynamical model of competitive metacommunities to study the relationships between species diversity and ecosystem variability across scales. We derive analytic relationships under a limiting case; these results are extended to more general cases with numerical simulations. Our model shows that, while alpha diversity decreases local ecosystem variability, beta diversity generally contributes to increasing spatial asynchrony among local ecosystems. Consequently, both alpha and beta diversity provide stabilising effects for regional ecosystems, through local and spatial insurance effects respectively. We further show that at the regional scale, the stabilising effect of biodiversity increases as spatial environmental correlation increases. Our findings have important implications for understanding the interactive effects of global environmental changes (e.g. environmental homogenisation) and biodiversity loss on ecosystem sustainability at large scales. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Global sensitivity analysis of DRAINMOD-FOREST, an integrated forest ecosystem model

Treesearch

Shiying Tian; Mohamed A. Youssef; Devendra M. Amatya; Eric D. Vance

2014-01-01

Global sensitivity analysis is a useful tool to understand process-based ecosystem models by identifying key parameters and processes controlling model predictions. This study reported a comprehensive global sensitivity analysis for DRAINMOD-FOREST, an integrated model for simulating water, carbon (C), and nitrogen (N) cycles and plant growth in lowland forests. The...

Nitrous oxide emissions from cropland: A procedure for calibrating the DayCent biogeochemical model using inverse modelling

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

DayCent is a biogeochemical model of intermediate complexity widely used to simulate greenhouse gases (GHG), soil organic carbon (SOC) and nutrients in crop, grassland, forest and savannah ecosystems. Although this model has been applied to a wide range of ecosystems, it is still typically parameter...

Effects of ice storm on forest ecosystem of southern China in 2008 Shaoqiang Wang1, Lei Zhou1, Weimin Ju2, Kun Huang1 1Key Lab of Ecosystem Network Observation and Modeling, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Beijing, 10010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Shaoqiang

2014-05-01

Evidence is mounting that an increase in extreme climate events has begun to occur worldwide during the recent decades, which affect biosphere function and biodiversity. Ecosystems returned to its original structures and functions to maintain its sustainability, which was closely dependent on ecosystem resilience. Understanding the resilience and recovery capacity of ecosystem to extreme climate events is essential to predicting future ecosystem responses to climate change. Given the overwhelming importance of this region in the overall carbon cycle of forest ecosystems in China, south China suffered a destructive ice storm in 2008. In this study, we used the number of freezing day and a process-based model (Boreal Ecosystem Productivity Simulator, BEPS) to characterize the spatial distribution of ice storm region in southeastern China and explore the impacts on carbon cycle of forest ecosystem over the past decade. The ecosystem variables, i.e. Net primary productivity (NPP), Evapotranspiration (ET), and Water use efficiency (WUE, the ratio of NPP to ET) from the outputs of BEPS models were used to detect the resistance and resilience of forest ecosystem in southern China. The pattern of ice storm-induced forest productivity widespread decline was closely related to the number of freezing day during the ice storm period. The NPP of forest area suffered heavy ice storm returned to normal status after five months with high temperature and ample moisture, indicated a high resilience of subtropical forest in China. The long-term changes of forest WUE remain stable, behaving an inherent sensitivity of ecosystem to extreme climate events. In addition, ground visits suggested that the recovery of forest productivity was attributed to rapid growth of understory. Understanding the variability and recovery threshold of ecosystem following extreme climate events help us to better simulate and predict the variability of ecosystem structure and function under current and future climate change.

Evaluation of model predictions of the ecological effects of 4-nonylphenol -- before and after model refinement

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hanratty, M.P.; Liber, K.

1994-12-31

The Littoral Ecosystem Risk Assessment Model (LERAM) is a bioenergetic ecosystem effects model. It links single species toxicity data to a bioenergetic model of the trophic structure of an ecosystem in order to simulate community and ecosystem level effects of chemical stressors. LERAM was used in 1992 to simulate the ecological effects of diflubenzuron. When compared to the results from a littoral enclosure study, the model exaggerated the cascading of effects through the trophic levels of the littoral ecosystem. It was hypothesized that this could be corrected by making minor changes in the representation of the littoral food web. Twomore » refinements of the model were therefore performed: (1) the plankton and macroinvertebrate model populations [eg., predatory Copepoda, herbivorous Insecta, green phytoplankton, etc.] were changed to better represent the habitat and feeding preferences of the endemic taxa; and (2) the method for modeling the microbial degradation of detritus (and the resulting nutrient remineralization) was changed from simulating bacterial populations to simulating bacterial function. Model predictions of the ecological effects of 4-nonylphenol were made before and after these refinements. Both sets of predictions were then compared to the results from a littoral enclosure study of the ecological effects of 4-nonylphenol. The changes in the LERAM predictions were then used to determine the success of the refinements, to guide. future research, and to further define LERAM`s domain of application.« less

Processes influencing model-data mismatch in drought-stressed, fire-disturbed eddy flux sites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mitchell, Stephen; Beven, Keith; Freer, Jim; Law, Beverly

2011-06-01

Semiarid forests are very sensitive to climatic change and among the most difficult ecosystems to accurately model. We tested the performance of the Biome-BGC model against eddy flux data taken from young (years 2004-2008), mature (years 2002-2008), and old-growth (year 2000) ponderosa pine stands at Metolius, Oregon, and subsequently examined several potential causes for model-data mismatch. We used the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation methodology, which involved 500,000 model runs for each stand (1,500,000 total). Each simulation was run with randomly generated parameter values from a uniform distribution based on published parameter ranges, resulting in modeled estimates of net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE) that were compared to measured eddy flux data. Simulations for the young stand exhibited the highest level of performance, though they overestimated ecosystem C accumulation (-NEE) 99% of the time. Among the simulations for the mature and old-growth stands, 100% and 99% of the simulations underestimated ecosystem C accumulation. One obvious area of model-data mismatch is soil moisture, which was overestimated by the model in the young and old-growth stands yet underestimated in the mature stand. However, modeled estimates of soil water content and associated water deficits did not appear to be the primary cause of model-data mismatch; our analysis indicated that gross primary production can be accurately modeled even if soil moisture content is not. Instead, difficulties in adequately modeling ecosystem respiration, mainly autotrophic respiration, appeared to be the fundamental cause of model-data mismatch.

Processes influencing model-data mismatch in drought-stressed, fire-disturbed eddy flux sites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mitchell, S. R.; Beven, K.; Freer, J. E.; Law, B. E.

2010-12-01

Semi-arid forests are very sensitive to climatic change and among the most difficult ecosystems to accurately model. We tested the performance of the Biome-BGC model against eddy flux data taken from young (years 2004-2008), mature (years 2002-2008), and old-growth (year 2000) Ponderosa pine stands at Metolius, Oregon, and subsequently examined several potential causes for model-data mismatch. We used the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) methodology, which involved 500,000 model runs for each stand (1,500,000 total). Each simulation was run with randomly generated parameter values from a uniform distribution based on published parameter ranges, resulting in modeled estimates of net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE) that were compared to measured eddy flux data. Simulations for the young stand exhibited the highest level of performance, though they over-estimated ecosystem C accumulation (-NEE) 99% of the time. Among the simulations for the mature and old-growth stands, 100% and 99% of the simulations under-estimated ecosystem C accumulation. One obvious area of model-data mismatch is soil moisture, which was overestimated by the model in the young and old-growth stands yet underestimated in the mature stand. However, modeled estimates of soil water content and associated water deficits did not appear to be the primary cause of model-data mismatch; our analysis indicated that gross primary production can be accurately modeled even if soil moisture content is not. Instead, difficulties in adequately modeling ecosystem respiration, both autotrophic and heterotrophic, appeared to be fundamental causes of model-data mismatch.

A new theoretical approach to terrestrial ecosystem science based on multiscale observations and eco-evolutionary optimality principles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prentice, Iain Colin; Wang, Han; Cornwell, William; Davis, Tyler; Dong, Ning; Evans, Bradley; Keenan, Trevor; Peng, Changhui; Stocker, Benjamin; Togashi, Henrique; Wright, Ian

2016-04-01

Ecosystem science focuses on biophysical interactions of organisms and their abiotic environment, and comprises vital aspects of Earth system function such as the controls of carbon, water and energy exchanges between ecosystems and the atmosphere. Global numerical models of these processes have proliferated, and have been incorporated as standard components of Earth system models whose ambitious goal is to predict the coupled behaviour of the oceans, atmosphere and land on time scales from minutes to millennia. Unfortunately, however, the performance of most current terrestrial ecosystem models is highly unsatisfactory. Models typically fail the most basic observational benchmarks, and diverge greatly from one another when called upon to predict the response of ecosystem function and composition to environmental changes beyond the narrow range for which they were developed. This situation seems to have arisen for two inter-related reasons. First, general principles underlying many basic terrestrial biogeochemical processes have been neither clearly formulated nor adequately tested. Second, extensive observational data sets that could be used to test process formulations have become available only quite recently, long postdating the emergence of the current modelling paradigm. But the situation has changed now and ecosystem science needs to change too, to reflect both recent theoretical advances and the vast increase in the availability of relevant data sets at scales from the leaf to the globe. This presentation will outline an emerging mathematical theory that links biophysical plant and ecosystem processes through testable hypotheses derived from the principle of optimization by natural selection. The development and testing of this theory has depended on the availability of extensive data sets on climate, leaf traits (including δ13C measurements), and ecosystem properties including green vegetation cover and land-atmosphere CO2 fluxes. Achievements to date include unified explanations for observed climate and elevation effects on leaf CO2 drawdown (ci:c¬a¬ ratio) and photosynthetic capacity (Vcmax), growth temperature effects on the Jmax:Vcmax ratio, the adaptive nature of acclimation to enhanced CO2 concentration, the controls of leaf versus sapwood respiration, the controls of leaf N content (Narea), the relative constancy of the light use efficiency of gross primary production, and the relative conservatism of leaf dark respiration with climate. These findings call into question many assumptions in supposed "state-of-the-art" terrestrial ecosystem models, and provide a foundation for next-generation global ecosystem models that will rest on a greatly strengthened theoretical and empirical basis.

Biofuels on the landscape: Is "land sharing" preferable to "land sparing"?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

DeLucia, E. H.; Anderson-Teixeira, K. J.; Duval, B. D.; Long, S. P.

2012-12-01

Widespread land use changes—and ensuing effects on biodiversity and ecosystem services—are expected as a result of expanding bioenergy production. Although almost all US production of ethanol today is from corn, it is envisaged that future ethanol production will also draw from cellulosic sources such as perennial grasses. In selecting optimal bioenergy crops, there is debate as to whether it is preferable from an environmental standpoint to cultivate bioenergy crops with high ecosystem services (a "land sharing" strategy) or to grow crops with lower ecosystem services but higher yield, thereby requiring less land to meet bioenergy demand (a "land sparing" strategy). Here, we develop a simple model to address this question. Assuming that bioenergy crops are competing with uncultivated land, our model calculates land requirements to meet a given bioenergy demand intensity based upon the yields of bioenergy crops and combines fractional land cover of each ecosystem type with its associated ecosystem services to determine whether land sharing or land sparing strategies maximize ecosystem services at the landscape level. We apply this model to a case in which climate protection through GHG regulation—an ecosystem's greenhouse gas value (GHGV)—is the ecosystem service of interest. We consider five bioenergy crops competing for land area with five unfarmed ecosystem types in the central and eastern US. Our results show that the relative advantages of land sparing and land sharing depend upon the type of ecosystem with which the bioenergy crop is competing for land; as the GHGV value of the unfarmed land increases, the preferable strategy shifts from land sharing to land sparing. This implies that, while it may be preferable to replace ecologically degraded land with high-GHGV, lower yielding bioenergy crops, average landscape GHGV will most often be maximized through high yielding bioenergy crops that leave more land for uncultivated, high-GHGV ecosystems. While our case study focuses on GHGV, the same principles will be generally applicable to any ecosystem service whose value does not depend upon the spatial configuration of the landscape. Whenever bioenergy crops have substantially lower ecosystem services than the ecosystems with which they are competing for land, the most effective strategy for meeting bioenergy demand while maximizing ecosystem services on a landscape level is one of land sparing—that is, focusing simultaneously on maximizing the yield of bioenergy crops while preserving or restoring natural ecosystems.

DayCent-Chem Simulations of Ecological and Biogeochemical Processes of Eight Mountain Ecosystems in the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hartman, Melannie D.; Baron, Jill S.; Clow, David W.; Creed, Irena F.; Driscoll, Charles T.; Ewing, Holly A.; Haines, Bruce D.; Knoepp, Jennifer; Lajtha, Kate; Ojima, Dennis S.; Parton, William J.; Renfro, Jim; Robinson, R. Bruce; Van Miegroet, Helga; Weathers, Kathleen C.; Williams, Mark W.

2009-01-01

Atmospheric deposition of nitrogen (N) and sulfur (S) cause complex responses in ecosystems, from fertilization to forest ecosystem decline, freshwater eutrophication to acidification, loss of soil base cations, and alterations of disturbance regimes. DayCent-Chem, an ecosystem simulation model that combines ecosystem nutrient cycling and plant dynamics with aqueous geochemical equilibrium calculations, was developed to address ecosystem responses to combined atmospheric N and S deposition. It is unique among geochemically-based models in its dynamic biological cycling of N and its daily timestep for investigating ecosystem and surface water chemical response to episodic events. The model was applied to eight mountainous watersheds in the United States. The sites represent a gradient of N deposition across locales, from relatively pristine to N-saturated, and a variety of ecosystem types and climates. Overall, the model performed best in predicting stream chemistry for snowmelt-dominated sites. It was more difficult to predict daily stream chemistry for watersheds with deep soils, high amounts of atmospheric deposition, and a large degree of spatial heterogeneity. DayCent-Chem did well in representing plant and soil carbon and nitrogen pools and fluxes. Modeled stream nitrate (NO3-) and ammonium (NH4+) concentrations compared well with measurements at all sites, with few exceptions. Simulated daily stream sulfate (SO42-) concentrations compared well to measured values for sites where SO42- deposition has been low and where SO42- adsorption/desorption reactions did not seem to be important. The concentrations of base cations and silica in streams are highly dependent on the geochemistry and weathering rates of minerals in each catchment, yet these were rarely, if ever, known. Thus, DayCent-Chem could not accurately predict weathering products for some catchments. Additionally, few data were available for exchangeable soil cations or the magnitude of base cation deposition as a result of dry and fog inputs. The uncertainties related to weathering reactions, deposition, soil cation exchange capacity, and groundwater contributions influenced how well the simulated acid neutralizing capacity (ANC) and pH estimates compared to observed values. Daily discharge was well represented by the model for most sites. The chapters of this report describe the parameterization for each site and summarize model results for ecosystem variables, stream discharge, and stream chemistry. This intersite comparison exercise provided insight about important and possibly not well understood processes.

Terrestrial ecosystems - Isobioclimates of the conterminous United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cress, Jill J.; Sayre, Roger G.; Comer, Patrick; Warner, Harumi

2009-01-01

However, the biophysical stratification approach used for the ecosystems modeling effort required a single climate layer that accurately reflected regional variation in wet/dry gradients and hot/cold gradients, with a manageable number of classes. Therefore, the data layers for thermotypes and ombrotypes were combined, yielding 127 unique thermotype-ombrotype combinations.The isobioclimates image shows ombrotypic regions (dry/wet gradients) for each thermotypic (warm/cold) region. Additional information about this map and any of the data developed for the ecosystems modeling of the conterminous United States is available online at http://rmgsc.cr.usgs.gov/ecosystems/.

Improving Marine Ecosystem Models with Biochemical Tracers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pethybridge, Heidi R.; Choy, C. Anela; Polovina, Jeffrey J.; Fulton, Elizabeth A.

2018-01-01

Empirical data on food web dynamics and predator-prey interactions underpin ecosystem models, which are increasingly used to support strategic management of marine resources. These data have traditionally derived from stomach content analysis, but new and complementary forms of ecological data are increasingly available from biochemical tracer techniques. Extensive opportunities exist to improve the empirical robustness of ecosystem models through the incorporation of biochemical tracer data and derived indices, an area that is rapidly expanding because of advances in analytical developments and sophisticated statistical techniques. Here, we explore the trophic information required by ecosystem model frameworks (species, individual, and size based) and match them to the most commonly used biochemical tracers (bulk tissue and compound-specific stable isotopes, fatty acids, and trace elements). Key quantitative parameters derived from biochemical tracers include estimates of diet composition, niche width, and trophic position. Biochemical tracers also provide powerful insight into the spatial and temporal variability of food web structure and the characterization of dominant basal and microbial food web groups. A major challenge in incorporating biochemical tracer data into ecosystem models is scale and data type mismatches, which can be overcome with greater knowledge exchange and numerical approaches that transform, integrate, and visualize data.

Phytoplankton competition and coexistence: Intrinsic ecosystem dynamics and impact of vertical mixing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perruche, Coralie; Rivière, Pascal; Pondaven, Philippe; Carton, Xavier

2010-04-01

This paper aims at studying analytically the functioning of a very simple ecosystem model with two phytoplankton species. First, using the dynamical system theory, we determine its nonlinear equilibria, their stability and characteristic timescales with a focus on phytoplankton competition. Particular attention is paid to the model sensitivity to parameter change. Then, the influence of vertical mixing and sinking of detritus on the vertically-distributed ecosystem model is investigated. The analytical results reveal a high diversity of ecosystem structures with fixed points and limit cycles that are mainly sensitive to variations of light intensity and total amount of nitrogen matter. The sensitivity to other parameters such as re-mineralisation, growth and grazing rates is also specified. Besides, the equilibrium analysis shows a complete segregation of the two phytoplankton species in the whole parameter space. The embedding of our ecosystem model into a one-dimensional numerical model with diffusion turns out to allow coexistence between phytoplankton species, providing a possible solution to the 'paradox of plankton' in the sense that it prevents the competitive exclusion of one phytoplankton species. These results improve our knowledge of the factors that control the structure and functioning of plankton communities.

An exactly solvable coarse-grained model for species diversity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suweis, Samir; Rinaldo, Andrea; Maritan, Amos

2012-07-01

We present novel analytical results concerning ecosystem species diversity that stem from a proposed coarse-grained neutral model based on birth-death processes. The relevance of the problem lies in the urgency for understanding and synthesizing both theoretical results from ecological neutral theory and empirical evidence on species diversity preservation. The neutral model of biodiversity deals with ecosystems at the same trophic level, where per capita vital rates are assumed to be species independent. Closed-form analytical solutions for the neutral theory are obtained within a coarse-grained model, where the only input is the species persistence time distribution. Our results pertain to: the probability distribution function of the number of species in the ecosystem, both in transient and in stationary states; the n-point connected time correlation function; and the survival probability, defined as the distribution of time spans to local extinction for a species randomly sampled from the community. Analytical predictions are also tested on empirical data from an estuarine fish ecosystem. We find that emerging properties of the ecosystem are very robust and do not depend on specific details of the model, with implications for biodiversity and conservation biology.

Modeling leaf phenology variation by groupings of species within and across ecosystems in northern Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Euskirchen, E. S.; Carman, T. B.; McGuire, A. D.

2012-12-01

The phenology of arctic ecosystems is driven primarily by abiotic forces, with temperature acting as the main determinant of growing season onset and leaf budburst and in the spring. However, while the plant species in arctic ecosystems require differing amounts of accumulated heat for leaf-out, dynamic vegetation models simulated over a regional to global scale typically assume some average leaf-out for all of the species within an ecosystem. Here, we make use of air temperature records and observational data of spring leaf phenology collected across dominant groupings of species (dwarf birch shrubs, willow shrubs, other deciduous shrubs, grasses, sedges, and forbs) in arctic and ecotonal boreal ecosystems in Alaska. We then parameterize a dynamic vegetation model based on these data for four types of tundra ecosystems (heath tundra, shrub tundra, wet sedge tundra, and tussock tundra), as well as ecotonal boreal white spruce forest. This implementation improves the timing of the onset of carbon uptake in the spring, permitting a more accurate assessment of the contribution of each grouping of species to ecosystem performance. Furthermore, this implementation provides a more nuanced perspective on light competition among species and across ecosystems. For example, in the shrub tundra, the sedges and grasses leaf-out before the shade-inducing willow and dwarf birch, thereby providing the sedges and grasses time to accumulate biomass before shading effects arise. Also in the shrub tundra, the forbs leaf-out last, and are therefore, more prone to shading impacts by the taller willow and dwarf birch shrubs. However, in the wet sedge and heath tundra ecosystems, the forbs leaf-out before the shrubs, and are therefore less prone to shading impacts early in the growing season. These findings indicate the importance of leaf phenology data collection by species and across the various ecosystem types within the highly heterogeneous Arctic landscape. These findings also demonstrate that high-latitude dynamic vegetation models should consider variation in leaf-out by groupings of species within and across ecosystems in order to provide more accurate projections of future plant distributions in Arctic regions.

From Metaphors to Formalism: A Heuristic Approach to Holistic Assessments of Ecosystem Health.

PubMed

Fock, Heino O; Kraus, Gerd

2016-01-01

Environmental policies employ metaphoric objectives such as ecosystem health, resilience and sustainable provision of ecosystem services, which influence corresponding sustainability assessments by means of normative settings such as assumptions on system description, indicator selection, aggregation of information and target setting. A heuristic approach is developed for sustainability assessments to avoid ambiguity and applications to the EU Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD) and OSPAR assessments are presented. For MSFD, nineteen different assessment procedures have been proposed, but at present no agreed assessment procedure is available. The heuristic assessment framework is a functional-holistic approach comprising an ex-ante/ex-post assessment framework with specifically defined normative and systemic dimensions (EAEPNS). The outer normative dimension defines the ex-ante/ex-post framework, of which the latter branch delivers one measure of ecosystem health based on indicators and the former allows to account for the multi-dimensional nature of sustainability (social, economic, ecological) in terms of modeling approaches. For MSFD, the ex-ante/ex-post framework replaces the current distinction between assessments based on pressure and state descriptors. The ex-ante and the ex-post branch each comprise an inner normative and a systemic dimension. The inner normative dimension in the ex-post branch considers additive utility models and likelihood functions to standardize variables normalized with Bayesian modeling. Likelihood functions allow precautionary target setting. The ex-post systemic dimension considers a posteriori indicator selection by means of analysis of indicator space to avoid redundant indicator information as opposed to a priori indicator selection in deconstructive-structural approaches. Indicator information is expressed in terms of ecosystem variability by means of multivariate analysis procedures. The application to the OSPAR assessment for the southern North Sea showed, that with the selected 36 indicators 48% of ecosystem variability could be explained. Tools for the ex-ante branch are risk and ecosystem models with the capability to analyze trade-offs, generating model output for each of the pressure chains to allow for a phasing-out of human pressures. The Bayesian measure of ecosystem health is sensitive to trends in environmental features, but robust to ecosystem variability in line with state space models. The combination of the ex-ante and ex-post branch is essential to evaluate ecosystem resilience and to adopt adaptive management. Based on requirements of the heuristic approach, three possible developments of this concept can be envisioned, i.e. a governance driven approach built upon participatory processes, a science driven functional-holistic approach requiring extensive monitoring to analyze complete ecosystem variability, and an approach with emphasis on ex-ante modeling and ex-post assessment of well-studied subsystems.

From Metaphors to Formalism: A Heuristic Approach to Holistic Assessments of Ecosystem Health

PubMed Central

Kraus, Gerd

2016-01-01

Environmental policies employ metaphoric objectives such as ecosystem health, resilience and sustainable provision of ecosystem services, which influence corresponding sustainability assessments by means of normative settings such as assumptions on system description, indicator selection, aggregation of information and target setting. A heuristic approach is developed for sustainability assessments to avoid ambiguity and applications to the EU Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD) and OSPAR assessments are presented. For MSFD, nineteen different assessment procedures have been proposed, but at present no agreed assessment procedure is available. The heuristic assessment framework is a functional-holistic approach comprising an ex-ante/ex-post assessment framework with specifically defined normative and systemic dimensions (EAEPNS). The outer normative dimension defines the ex-ante/ex-post framework, of which the latter branch delivers one measure of ecosystem health based on indicators and the former allows to account for the multi-dimensional nature of sustainability (social, economic, ecological) in terms of modeling approaches. For MSFD, the ex-ante/ex-post framework replaces the current distinction between assessments based on pressure and state descriptors. The ex-ante and the ex-post branch each comprise an inner normative and a systemic dimension. The inner normative dimension in the ex-post branch considers additive utility models and likelihood functions to standardize variables normalized with Bayesian modeling. Likelihood functions allow precautionary target setting. The ex-post systemic dimension considers a posteriori indicator selection by means of analysis of indicator space to avoid redundant indicator information as opposed to a priori indicator selection in deconstructive-structural approaches. Indicator information is expressed in terms of ecosystem variability by means of multivariate analysis procedures. The application to the OSPAR assessment for the southern North Sea showed, that with the selected 36 indicators 48% of ecosystem variability could be explained. Tools for the ex-ante branch are risk and ecosystem models with the capability to analyze trade-offs, generating model output for each of the pressure chains to allow for a phasing-out of human pressures. The Bayesian measure of ecosystem health is sensitive to trends in environmental features, but robust to ecosystem variability in line with state space models. The combination of the ex-ante and ex-post branch is essential to evaluate ecosystem resilience and to adopt adaptive management. Based on requirements of the heuristic approach, three possible developments of this concept can be envisioned, i.e. a governance driven approach built upon participatory processes, a science driven functional-holistic approach requiring extensive monitoring to analyze complete ecosystem variability, and an approach with emphasis on ex-ante modeling and ex-post assessment of well-studied subsystems. PMID:27509185

Global and regional ecosystem modeling: comparison of model outputs and field measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olson, R. J.; Hibbard, K.

2003-04-01

The Ecosystem Model-Data Intercomparison (EMDI) Workshops provide a venue for global ecosystem modeling groups to compare model outputs against measurements of net primary productivity (NPP). The objective of EMDI Workshops is to evaluate model performance relative to observations in order to improve confidence in global model projections terrestrial carbon cycling. The questions addressed by EMDI include: How does the simulated NPP compare with the field data across biome and environmental gradients? How sensitive are models to site-specific climate? Does additional mechanistic detail in models result in a better match with field measurements? How useful are the measures of NPP for evaluating model predictions? How well do models represent regional patterns of NPP? Initial EMDI results showed general agreement between model predictions and field measurements but with obvious differences that indicated areas for potential data and model improvement. The effort was built on the development and compilation of complete and consistent databases for model initialization and comparison. Database development improves the data as well as models; however, there is a need to incorporate additional observations and model outputs (LAI, hydrology, etc.) for comprehensive analyses of biogeochemical processes and their relationships to ecosystem structure and function. EMDI initialization and NPP data sets are available from the Oak Ridge National Laboratory Distributed Active Archive Center http://www.daac.ornl.gov/. Acknowledgements: This work was partially supported by the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme - Data and Information System (IGBP-DIS); the IGBP-Global Analysis, Interpretation and Modelling Task Force (GAIM); the National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis (NCEAS); and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Terrestrial Ecosystem Program. Oak Ridge National Laboratory is managed by UT-Battelle LLC for the U.S. Department of Energy under contract DE-AC05-00OR22725

Conceptualizing and Communicating River Restoration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jacobosn, R. B.

2007-12-01

River restoration increasingly involves collaboration with stakeholders having diverse values and varying technical understanding. In cases where river restoration proceeds through collaborative processes, scientists are required to communicate complex understanding about riverine ecosystem processes to broad audiences. Of particular importance is communication of uncertainties in predictions of ecosystem responses to restoration actions, and how those uncertainties affect monitoring and evaluation strategies. I present a relatively simple conceptual model of how riverine ecosystems operate. The model, which has been used to conceptualize and communicate various river-restoration and management processes in the Lower Missouri River, emphasizes a) the interdependencies of driving regimes (for example, flow, sediment, and water quality), b) the filtering effect of management history, c) the typical hierarchical nature of information about how ecosystems operate, and d) how scientific understanding interacts with decision making. I provide an example of how the conceptual model has been used to illustrate the effects of extensive channel re-engineering of the Lower Missouri River which is intended to mitigate the effects of channelization and flow regulation on aquatic and flood-plain ecosystems. The conceptual model illustrates the logic for prioritizing investments in monitoring and evaluation, interactions among ecosystem components, tradeoffs between ecological and social-commercial benefits, and the feedback loop necessary for successful adaptive management.

Impacts of insect disturbance on the structure, composition, and functioning of oak-pine forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Medvigy, D.; Schafer, K. V.; Clark, K. L.

2011-12-01

Episodic disturbance is an essential feature of terrestrial ecosystems, and strongly modulates their structure, composition, and functioning. However, dynamic global vegetation models that are commonly used to make ecosystem and terrestrial carbon budget predictions rarely have an explicit representation of disturbance. One reason why disturbance is seldom included is that disturbance tends to operate on spatial scales that are much smaller than typical model resolutions. In response to this problem, the Ecosystem Demography model 2 (ED2) was developed as a way of tracking the fine-scale heterogeneity arising from disturbances. In this study, we used ED2 to simulate an oak-pine forest that experiences episodic defoliation by gypsy moth (Lymantria dispar L). The model was carefully calibrated against site-level data, and then used to simulate changes in ecosystem composition, structure, and functioning on century time scales. Compared to simulations that include gypsy moth defoliation, we show that simulations that ignore defoliation events lead to much larger ecosystem carbon stores and a larger fraction of deciduous trees relative to evergreen trees. Furthermore, we find that it is essential to preserve the fine-scale nature of the disturbance. Attempts to "smooth out" the defoliation event over an entire grid cells led to large biases in ecosystem structure and functioning.

An Integrated Coral Reef Ecosystem Model to Support Resource Management under a Changing Climate

PubMed Central

Weijerman, Mariska; Fulton, Elizabeth A.; Kaplan, Isaac C.; Gorton, Rebecca; Leemans, Rik; Mooij, Wolf M.; Brainard, Russell E.

2015-01-01

Millions of people rely on the ecosystem services provided by coral reefs, but sustaining these benefits requires an understanding of how reefs and their biotic communities are affected by local human-induced disturbances and global climate change. Ecosystem-based management that explicitly considers the indirect and cumulative effects of multiple disturbances has been recommended and adopted in policies in many places around the globe. Ecosystem models give insight into complex reef dynamics and their responses to multiple disturbances and are useful tools to support planning and implementation of ecosystem-based management. We adapted the Atlantis Ecosystem Model to incorporate key dynamics for a coral reef ecosystem around Guam in the tropical western Pacific. We used this model to quantify the effects of predicted climate and ocean changes and current levels of current land-based sources of pollution (LBSP) and fishing. We used the following six ecosystem metrics as indicators of ecosystem state, resilience and harvest potential: 1) ratio of calcifying to non-calcifying benthic groups, 2) trophic level of the community, 3) biomass of apex predators, 4) biomass of herbivorous fishes, 5) total biomass of living groups and 6) the end-to-start ratio of exploited fish groups. Simulation tests of the effects of each of the three drivers separately suggest that by mid-century climate change will have the largest overall effect on this suite of ecosystem metrics due to substantial negative effects on coral cover. The effects of fishing were also important, negatively influencing five out of the six metrics. Moreover, LBSP exacerbates this effect for all metrics but not quite as badly as would be expected under additive assumptions, although the magnitude of the effects of LBSP are sensitive to uncertainty associated with primary productivity. Over longer time spans (i.e., 65 year simulations), climate change impacts have a slight positive interaction with other drivers, generally meaning that declines in ecosystem metrics are not as steep as the sum of individual effects of the drivers. These analyses offer one way to quantify impacts and interactions of particular stressors in an ecosystem context and so provide guidance to managers. For example, the model showed that improving water quality, rather than prohibiting fishing, extended the timescales over which corals can maintain high abundance by at least 5–8 years. This result, in turn, provides more scope for corals to adapt or for resilient species to become established and for local and global management efforts to reduce or reverse stressors. PMID:26672983

An Integrated Coral Reef Ecosystem Model to Support Resource Management under a Changing Climate.

PubMed

Weijerman, Mariska; Fulton, Elizabeth A; Kaplan, Isaac C; Gorton, Rebecca; Leemans, Rik; Mooij, Wolf M; Brainard, Russell E

2015-01-01

Millions of people rely on the ecosystem services provided by coral reefs, but sustaining these benefits requires an understanding of how reefs and their biotic communities are affected by local human-induced disturbances and global climate change. Ecosystem-based management that explicitly considers the indirect and cumulative effects of multiple disturbances has been recommended and adopted in policies in many places around the globe. Ecosystem models give insight into complex reef dynamics and their responses to multiple disturbances and are useful tools to support planning and implementation of ecosystem-based management. We adapted the Atlantis Ecosystem Model to incorporate key dynamics for a coral reef ecosystem around Guam in the tropical western Pacific. We used this model to quantify the effects of predicted climate and ocean changes and current levels of current land-based sources of pollution (LBSP) and fishing. We used the following six ecosystem metrics as indicators of ecosystem state, resilience and harvest potential: 1) ratio of calcifying to non-calcifying benthic groups, 2) trophic level of the community, 3) biomass of apex predators, 4) biomass of herbivorous fishes, 5) total biomass of living groups and 6) the end-to-start ratio of exploited fish groups. Simulation tests of the effects of each of the three drivers separately suggest that by mid-century climate change will have the largest overall effect on this suite of ecosystem metrics due to substantial negative effects on coral cover. The effects of fishing were also important, negatively influencing five out of the six metrics. Moreover, LBSP exacerbates this effect for all metrics but not quite as badly as would be expected under additive assumptions, although the magnitude of the effects of LBSP are sensitive to uncertainty associated with primary productivity. Over longer time spans (i.e., 65 year simulations), climate change impacts have a slight positive interaction with other drivers, generally meaning that declines in ecosystem metrics are not as steep as the sum of individual effects of the drivers. These analyses offer one way to quantify impacts and interactions of particular stressors in an ecosystem context and so provide guidance to managers. For example, the model showed that improving water quality, rather than prohibiting fishing, extended the timescales over which corals can maintain high abundance by at least 5-8 years. This result, in turn, provides more scope for corals to adapt or for resilient species to become established and for local and global management efforts to reduce or reverse stressors.

CONCEPTUAL MODELS AND METHODS TO GUIDE DIAGNOSTIC RESEARCH INTO CAUSES OF IMPAIRMENT TO AQUATIC ECOSYSTEMS

EPA Science Inventory

Methods and conceptual models to guide the development of tools for diagnosing the causes of biological impairment within aquatic ecosystems of the United States are described in this report. The conceptual models developed here address nutrients, suspended and bedded sediments (...

Models for predicting fuel consumption in sagebrush-dominated ecosystems

Treesearch

Clinton S. Wright

2013-01-01

Fuel consumption predictions are necessary to accurately estimate or model fire effects, including pollutant emissions during wildland fires. Fuel and environmental measurements on a series of operational prescribed fires were used to develop empirical models for predicting fuel consumption in big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentate Nutt.) ecosystems....

Driving terrestrial ecosystem models from space

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Waring, R. H.

1993-01-01

Regional air pollution, land-use conversion, and projected climate change all affect ecosystem processes at large scales. Changes in vegetation cover and growth dynamics can impact the functioning of ecosystems, carbon fluxes, and climate. As a result, there is a need to assess and monitor vegetation structure and function comprehensively at regional to global scales. To provide a test of our present understanding of how ecosystems operate at large scales we can compare model predictions of CO2, O2, and methane exchange with the atmosphere against regional measurements of interannual variation in the atmospheric concentration of these gases. Recent advances in remote sensing of the Earth's surface are beginning to provide methods for estimating important ecosystem variables at large scales. Ecologists attempting to generalize across landscapes have made extensive use of models and remote sensing technology. The success of such ventures is dependent on merging insights and expertise from two distinct fields. Ecologists must provide the understanding of how well models emulate important biological variables and their interactions; experts in remote sensing must provide the biophysical interpretation of complex optical reflectance and radar backscatter data.

Model-experiment synthesis at two FACE sites in the southeastern US. Forest ecosystem responses to elevated CO[2]. (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walker, A. P.; Zaehle, S.; De Kauwe, M. G.; Medlyn, B. E.; Dietze, M.; Hickler, T.; Iversen, C. M.; Jain, A. K.; Luo, Y.; McCarthy, H. R.; Parton, W. J.; Prentice, C.; Thornton, P. E.; Wang, S.; Wang, Y.; Warlind, D.; Warren, J.; Weng, E.; Hanson, P. J.; Oren, R.; Norby, R. J.

2013-12-01

Ecosystem observations from two long-term Free-Air CO[2] Enrichment (FACE) experiments (Duke forest and Oak Ridge forest) were used to evaluate the assumptions of 11 terrestrial ecosystem models and the consequences of those assumptions for the responses of ecosystem water, carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) fluxes to elevated CO[2] (eCO[2]). Nitrogen dynamics were the main constraint on simulated productivity responses to eCO[2]. At Oak Ridge some models reproduced the declining response of C and N fluxes, while at Duke none of the models were able to maintain the observed sustained responses. C and N cycles are coupled through a number of complex interactions, which causes uncertainty in model simulations in multiple ways. Nonetheless, the major difference between models and experiments was a larger than observed increase in N-use efficiency and lower than observed response of N uptake. The results indicate that at Duke there were mechanisms by which trees accessed additional N in response to eCO[2] that were not represented in the ecosystem models, and which did not operate with the same efficiency at Oak Ridge. Sequestration of the additional productivity under eCO[2] into forest biomass depended largely on C allocation. Allocation assumptions were classified into three main categories--fixed partitioning coefficients, functional relationships and a partial (leaf allocation only) optimisation. The assumption which best constrained model results was a functional relationship between leaf area and sapwood area (pipe-model) and increased root allocation when nitrogen or water were limiting. Both, productivity and allocation responses to eCO[2] determined the ecosystem-level response of LAI, which together with the response of stomatal conductance (and hence water-use efficiency; WUE) determined the ecosystem response of transpiration. Differences in the WUE response across models were related to the representation of the relationship of stomatal conductance to CO[2] and the relative importance of the combined boundary and aerodynamic resistances in the total resistance to leaf-atmosphere water transport.

Hydraulic redistribution affects modeled carbon cycling via soil microbial activity and suppressed fire.

PubMed

Fu, Congsheng; Wang, Guiling; Bible, Kenneth; Goulden, Michael L; Saleska, Scott R; Scott, Russell L; Cardon, Zoe G

2018-04-13

Hydraulic redistribution (HR) of water from moist to drier soils, through plant roots, occurs world-wide in seasonally dry ecosystems. Although the influence of HR on landscape hydrology and plant water use has been amply demonstrated, HR's effects on microbe-controlled processes sensitive to soil moisture, including carbon and nutrient cycling at ecosystem scales, remain difficult to observe in the field and have not been integrated into a predictive framework. We incorporated a representation of HR into the Community Land Model (CLM4.5) and found the new model improved predictions of water, energy, and system-scale carbon fluxes observed by eddy covariance at four seasonally dry yet ecologically diverse temperate and tropical AmeriFlux sites. Modeled plant productivity and microbial activities were differentially stimulated by upward HR, resulting at times in increased plant demand outstripping increased nutrient supply. Modeled plant productivity and microbial activities were diminished by downward HR. Overall, inclusion of HR tended to increase modeled annual ecosystem uptake of CO 2 (or reduce annual CO 2 release to the atmosphere). Moreover, engagement of CLM4.5's ground-truthed fire module indicated that though HR increased modeled fuel load at all four sites, upward HR also moistened surface soil and hydrated vegetation sufficiently to limit the modeled spread of dry season fire and concomitant very large CO 2 emissions to the atmosphere. Historically, fire has been a dominant ecological force in many seasonally dry ecosystems, and intensification of soil drought and altered precipitation regimes are expected for seasonally dry ecosystems in the future. HR may play an increasingly important role mitigating development of extreme soil water potential gradients and associated limitations on plant and soil microbial activities, and may inhibit the spread of fire in seasonally dry ecosystems. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Integrating ecophysiology and forest landscape models to improve projections of drought effects under climate change.

PubMed

Gustafson, Eric J; De Bruijn, Arjan M G; Pangle, Robert E; Limousin, Jean-Marc; McDowell, Nate G; Pockman, William T; Sturtevant, Brian R; Muss, Jordan D; Kubiske, Mark E

2015-02-01

Fundamental drivers of ecosystem processes such as temperature and precipitation are rapidly changing and creating novel environmental conditions. Forest landscape models (FLM) are used by managers and policy-makers to make projections of future ecosystem dynamics under alternative management or policy options, but the links between the fundamental drivers and projected responses are weak and indirect, limiting their reliability for projecting the impacts of climate change. We developed and tested a relatively mechanistic method to simulate the effects of changing precipitation on species competition within the LANDIS-II FLM. Using data from a field precipitation manipulation experiment in a piñon pine (Pinus edulis) and juniper (Juniperus monosperma) ecosystem in New Mexico (USA), we calibrated our model to measurements from ambient control plots and tested predictions under the drought and irrigation treatments against empirical measurements. The model successfully predicted behavior of physiological variables under the treatments. Discrepancies between model output and empirical data occurred when the monthly time step of the model failed to capture the short-term dynamics of the ecosystem as recorded by instantaneous field measurements. We applied the model to heuristically assess the effect of alternative climate scenarios on the piñon-juniper ecosystem and found that warmer and drier climate reduced productivity and increased the risk of drought-induced mortality, especially for piñon. We concluded that the direct links between fundamental drivers and growth rates in our model hold great promise to improve our understanding of ecosystem processes under climate change and improve management decisions because of its greater reliance on first principles. Published 2014. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Evaluation of atmospheric aerosol and tropospheric ozone effects on global terrestrial ecosystem carbon dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Min

The increasing human activities have produced large amounts of air pollutants ejected into the atmosphere, in which atmospheric aerosols and tropospheric ozone are considered to be especially important because of their negative impacts on human health and their impacts on global climate through either their direct radiative effect or indirect effect on land-atmosphere CO2 exchange. This dissertation dedicates to quantifying and evaluating the aerosol and tropospheric ozone effects on global terrestrial ecosystem dynamics using a modeling approach. An ecosystem model, the integrated Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (iTem), is developed to simulate biophysical and biogeochemical processes in terrestrial ecosystems. A two-broad-band atmospheric radiative transfer model together with the Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) measured atmospheric parameters are used to well estimate global downward solar radiation and the direct and diffuse components in comparison with observations. The atmospheric radiative transfer modeling framework were used to quantify the aerosol direct radiative effect, showing that aerosol loadings cause 18.7 and 12.8 W m -2 decrease of direct-beam Photosynthetic Active Radiation (PAR) and Near Infrared Radiation (NIR) respectively, and 5.2 and 4.4 W m -2 increase of diffuse PAR and NIR, respectively, leading to a total 21.9 W m-2 decrease of total downward solar radiation over the global land surface during the period of 2003-2010. The results also suggested that the aerosol effect may be overwhelmed by clouds because of the stronger extinction and scattering ability of clouds. Applications of the iTem with solar radiation data and with or without considering the aerosol loadings shows that aerosol loading enhances the terrestrial productions [Gross Primary Production (GPP), Net Primary Production (NPP) and Net Ecosystem Production (NEP)] and carbon emissions through plant respiration (RA) in global terrestrial ecosystems over the period of 2003-2010. Ecosystem heterotrophic respiration (RH) was negatively affected by the aerosol loading. These results support previous conclusions of the advantage of aerosol light scattering effect on plant productions in other studies but suggest there is strong spatial variation. This study finds indirect aerosol effects on terrestrial ecosystem carbon dynamics through affecting plant phenology, thermal and hydrological environments. All these evidences suggested that the aerosol direct radiative effect on global terrestrial ecosystem carbon dynamics should be considered to better understand the global carbon cycle and climate change. An ozone sub-model is developed in this dissertation and fully coupled with iTem. The coupled model, named iTemO3 considers the processes of ozone stomatal deposition, plant defense to ozone influx, ozone damage and plant repairing mechanism. By using a global atmospheric chemical transport model (GACTM) estimated ground-level ozone concentration data, the model estimated global annual stomatal ozone deposition is 234.0 Tg O3 yr-1 and indicates which regions have high ozone damage risk. Different plant functional types, sunlit and shaded leaves are shown to have different responses to ozone. The model predictions suggest that ozone has caused considerable change on global terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage and carbon exchanges over the study period 2004-2008. The study suggests that uncertainty of the key parameters in iTemO3 could result in large errors in model predictions. Thus more experimental data for better model parameterization is highly needed.

Use of Combined Biogeochemical Model Approaches and Empirical Data to Assess Critical Loads of Nitrogen

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fenn, Mark E.; Driscoll, Charles; Zhou, Qingtao

2015-01-01

Empirical and dynamic biogeochemical modelling are complementary approaches for determining the critical load (CL) of atmospheric nitrogen (N) or other constituent deposition that an ecosystem can tolerate without causing ecological harm. The greatest benefits are obtained when these approaches are used in combination. Confounding environmental factors can complicate the determination of empirical CLs across depositional gradients, while the experimental application of N amendments for estimating the CL does not realistically mimic the effects of chronic atmospheric N deposition. Biogeochemical and vegetation simulation models can provide CL estimates and valuable ecosystem response information, allowing for past and future scenario testing withmore » various combinations of environmental factors, pollutants, pollutant control options, land management, and ecosystem response parameters. Even so, models are fundamentally gross simplifications of the real ecosystems they attempt to simulate. Empirical approaches are vital as a check on simulations and CL estimates, to parameterize models, and to elucidate mechanisms and responses under real world conditions. In this chapter, we provide examples of empirical and modelled N CL approaches in ecosystems from three regions of the United States: mixed conifer forest, desert scrub and pinyon- juniper woodland in California; alpine catchments in the Rocky Mountains; and lakes in the Adirondack region of New York state.« less

Natural variability of marine ecosystems inferred from a coupled climate to ecosystem simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Le Mézo, Priscilla; Lefort, Stelly; Séférian, Roland; Aumont, Olivier; Maury, Olivier; Murtugudde, Raghu; Bopp, Laurent

2016-01-01

This modeling study analyzes the simulated natural variability of pelagic ecosystems in the North Atlantic and North Pacific. Our model system includes a global Earth System Model (IPSL-CM5A-LR), the biogeochemical model PISCES and the ecosystem model APECOSM that simulates upper trophic level organisms using a size-based approach and three interactive pelagic communities (epipelagic, migratory and mesopelagic). Analyzing an idealized (e.g., no anthropogenic forcing) 300-yr long pre-industrial simulation, we find that low and high frequency variability is dominant for the large and small organisms, respectively. Our model shows that the size-range exhibiting the largest variability at a given frequency, defined as the resonant range, also depends on the community. At a given frequency, the resonant range of the epipelagic community includes larger organisms than that of the migratory community and similarly, the latter includes larger organisms than the resonant range of the mesopelagic community. This study shows that the simulated temporal variability of marine pelagic organisms' abundance is not only influenced by natural climate fluctuations but also by the structure of the pelagic community. As a consequence, the size- and community-dependent response of marine ecosystems to climate variability could impact the sustainability of fisheries in a warming world.

Insights into resource consumption, cross-feeding, system collapse, stability and biodiversity from an artificial ecosystem

PubMed Central

Sumpter, David

2017-01-01

Community ecosystems at very different levels of biological organization often have similar properties. Coexistence of multiple species, cross-feeding, biodiversity and fluctuating population dynamics are just a few of the properties that arise in a range of ecological settings. Here we develop a bottom-up model of consumer–resource interactions, in the form of an artificial ecosystem ‘number soup’, which reflects basic properties of many bacterial and other community ecologies. We demonstrate four key properties of the number soup model: (i) communities self-organize so that all available resources are fully consumed; (ii) reciprocal cross-feeding is a common evolutionary outcome, which evolves in a number of stages, and many transitional species are involved; (iii) the evolved ecosystems are often ‘robust yet fragile’, with keystone species required to prevent the whole system from collapsing; (iv) non-equilibrium dynamics and chaotic patterns are general properties, readily generating rich biodiversity. These properties have been observed in empirical ecosystems, ranging from bacteria to rainforests. Establishing similar properties in an evolutionary model as simple as the number soup suggests that these four properties are ubiquitous features of all community ecosystems, and raises questions about how we interpret ecosystem structure in the context of natural selection. PMID:28100827

Atmospheric redistribution of reactive nitrogen and phosphorus by wildfires and implications for global carbon cycling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Randerson, J. T.; Xu, L.; Wiggins, E. B.; Chen, Y.; Riley, W. J.; Mekonnen, Z. A.; Pellegrini, A.; Mahowald, N. M.

2017-12-01

Fires are an important process regulating the redistribution of nutrients within terrestrial ecosystems. Frequently burning ecosystems such as savannas are a net source of N and P to the atmosphere each year, with atmospheric transport and dry and wet deposition increasing nutrient availability in downwind ecosystems and over the open ocean. Transport of N and P aerosols from savanna fires within the Hadley circulation contributes to nutrient deposition over tropical forests, yielding an important cross-biome nutrient transfer. Pyrodenitrification of reactive N increases with fire temperature and modified combustion efficiency, generating a global net biospheric loss of approximately 14 Tg N per year. Here we analyze atmospheric N and P redistribution using the Global Fire Emissions Database version 4s and the Accelerated Climate Modeling for Energy earth system model. We synthesize literature estimates of N and P concentrations in fire-emitted aerosols and ecosystem mass balance measurements to help constrain model estimates of these biosphere-atmosphere fluxes. In our analysis, we estimate the fraction of terrestrial net primary production (NPP) that is sustained by fire-emitted P and reactive N from upwind ecosystems. We then evaluate how recent global declines in burned area in savanna and grassland ecosystems may be changing nutrient availability in downwind ecosystems.

Modeling dynamic interactions and coherence between marine zooplankton and fishes linked to environmental variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Hui; Fogarty, Michael J.; Hare, Jonathan A.; Hsieh, Chih-hao; Glaser, Sarah M.; Ye, Hao; Deyle, Ethan; Sugihara, George

2014-03-01

The dynamics of marine fishes are closely related to lower trophic levels and the environment. Quantitatively understanding ecosystem dynamics linking environmental variability and prey resources to exploited fishes is crucial for ecosystem-based management of marine living resources. However, standard statistical models typically grounded in the concept of linear system may fail to capture the complexity of ecological processes. We have attempted to model ecosystem dynamics using a flexible, nonparametric class of nonlinear forecasting models. We analyzed annual time series of four environmental indices, 22 marine copepod taxa, and four ecologically and commercially important fish species during 1977 to 2009 on Georges Bank, a highly productive and intensively studied area of the northeast U.S. continental shelf ecosystem. We examined the underlying dynamic features of environmental indices and copepods, quantified the dynamic interactions and coherence with fishes, and explored the potential control mechanisms of ecosystem dynamics from a nonlinear perspective. We found: (1) the dynamics of marine copepods and environmental indices exhibiting clear nonlinearity; (2) little evidence of complex dynamics across taxonomic levels of copepods; (3) strong dynamic interactions and coherence between copepods and fishes; and (4) the bottom-up forcing of fishes and top-down control of copepods coexisting as target trophic levels vary. These findings highlight the nonlinear interactions among ecosystem components and the importance of marine zooplankton to fish populations which point to two forcing mechanisms likely interactively regulating the ecosystem dynamics on Georges Bank under a changing environment.

Carbon Cycle Model Linkage Project (CCMLP): Evaluating Biogeochemical Process Models with Atmospheric Measurements and Field Experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heimann, M.; Prentice, I. C.; Foley, J.; Hickler, T.; Kicklighter, D. W.; McGuire, A. D.; Melillo, J. M.; Ramankutty, N.; Sitch, S.

2001-12-01

Models of biophysical and biogeochemical proceses are being used -either offline or in coupled climate-carbon cycle (C4) models-to assess climate- and CO2-induced feedbacks on atmospheric CO2. Observations of atmospheric CO2 concentration, and supplementary tracers including O2 concentrations and isotopes, offer unique opportunities to evaluate the large-scale behaviour of models. Global patterns, temporal trends, and interannual variability of the atmospheric CO2 concentration and its seasonal cycle provide crucial benchmarks for simulations of regionally-integrated net ecosystem exchange; flux measurements by eddy correlation allow a far more demanding model test at the ecosystem scale than conventional indicators, such as measurements of annual net primary production; and large-scale manipulations, such as the Duke Forest Free Air Carbon Enrichment (FACE) experiment, give a standard to evaluate modelled phenomena such as ecosystem-level CO2 fertilization. Model runs including historical changes of CO2, climate and land use allow comparison with regional-scale monthly CO2 balances as inferred from atmospheric measurements. Such comparisons are providing grounds for some confidence in current models, while pointing to processes that may still be inadequately treated. Current plans focus on (1) continued benchmarking of land process models against flux measurements across ecosystems and experimental findings on the ecosystem-level effects of enhanced CO2, reactive N inputs and temperature; (2) improved representation of land use, forest management and crop metabolism in models; and (3) a strategy for the evaluation of C4 models in a historical observational context.

A conceptual framework for the study of human ecosystems in urban areas

Treesearch

Steward T.A. Pickett; William R. Burch; Shawn E. Dalton; Timothy W. Foresman; J. Morgan Grove; Rowan Rowntree

1997-01-01

The need for integrated concepts, capable of satisfying natural and social scientists and supporting integrated research, motivates a conceptual framework for understanding the role of humans in ecosystems. The question is how to add humans to the ecological models used to understand urban ecosystems. The ecosystem concept can serve as the basis, but specific social...

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ito, Akihiko; Inatomi, Motoko; Huntzinger, Deborah N.

The seasonal-cycle amplitude (SCA) of the atmosphere–ecosystem carbon dioxide (CO 2) exchange rate is a useful metric of the responsiveness of the terrestrial biosphere to environmental variations. It is unclear, however, what underlying mechanisms are responsible for the observed increasing trend of SCA in atmospheric CO 2 concentration. Using output data from the Multi-scale Terrestrial Model Intercomparison Project (MsTMIP), we investigated how well the SCA of atmosphere–ecosystem CO 2 exchange was simulated with 15 contemporary terrestrial ecosystem models during the period 1901–2010. Also, we made attempt to evaluate the contributions of potential mechanisms such as atmospheric CO 2, climate, land-use,more » and nitrogen deposition, through factorial experiments using different combinations of forcing data. Under contemporary conditions, the simulated global-scale SCA of the cumulative net ecosystem carbon flux of most models was comparable in magnitude with the SCA of atmospheric CO 2 concentrations. Results from factorial simulation experiments showed that elevated atmospheric CO 2 exerted a strong influence on the seasonality amplification. When the model considered not only climate change but also land-use and atmospheric CO 2 changes, the majority of the models showed amplification trends of the SCAs of photosynthesis, respiration, and net ecosystem production (+0.19 % to +0.50 % yr -1). In the case of land-use change, it was difficult to separate the contribution of agricultural management to SCA because of inadequacies in both the data and models. The simulated amplification of SCA was approximately consistent with the observational evidence of the SCA in atmospheric CO 2 concentrations. Large inter-model differences remained, however, in the simulated global tendencies and spatial patterns of CO 2 exchanges. Further studies are required to identify a consistent explanation for the simulated and observed amplification trends, including their underlying mechanisms. Nevertheless, this study implied that monitoring of ecosystem seasonality would provide useful insights concerning ecosystem dynamics.« less

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ito, Akihiko; Inatomi, Motoko; Huntzinger, Deborah N.

The seasonal-cycle amplitude (SCA) of the atmosphere–ecosystem carbon dioxide (CO 2) exchange rate is a useful metric of the responsiveness of the terrestrial biosphere to environmental variations. It is unclear, however, what underlying mechanisms are responsible for the observed increasing trend of SCA in atmospheric CO 2 concentration. Using output data from the Multi-scale Terrestrial Model Intercomparison Project (MsTMIP), we investigated how well the SCA of atmosphere–ecosystem CO 2 exchange was simulated with 15 contemporary terrestrial ecosystem models during the period 1901–2010. Also, we made attempt to evaluate the contributions of potential mechanisms such as atmospheric CO 2, climate, land-use,more » and nitrogen deposition, through factorial experiments using different combinations of forcing data. Under contemporary conditions, the simulated global-scale SCA of the cumulative net ecosystem carbon flux of most models was comparable in magnitude with the SCA of atmospheric CO 2 concentrations. Results from factorial simulation experiments showed that elevated atmospheric CO 2 exerted a strong influence on the seasonality amplification. When the model considered not only climate change but also land-use and atmospheric CO 2 changes, the majority of the models showed amplification trends of the SCAs of photosynthesis, respiration, and net ecosystem production (+0.19 % to +0.50 % yr –1). In the case of land-use change, it was difficult to separate the contribution of agricultural management to SCA because of inadequacies in both the data and models. The simulated amplification of SCA was approximately consistent with the observational evidence of the SCA in atmospheric CO 2 concentrations. Large inter-model differences remained, however, in the simulated global tendencies and spatial patterns of CO 2 exchanges. Further studies are required to identify a consistent explanation for the simulated and observed amplification trends, including their underlying mechanisms. Furthermore, this study implied that monitoring of ecosystem seasonality would provide useful insights concerning ecosystem dynamics.« less

Nutrient supply and mercury dynamics in marine ecosystems: A conceptual model

PubMed Central

Chen, Celia Y.; Hammerschmidt, Chad R.; Mason, Robert P.; Gilmour, Cynthia C.; Sunderland, Elsie M.; Greenfield, Ben K.; Buckman, Kate L.; Lamborg, Carl H.

2013-01-01

There is increasing interest and concern over the impacts of mercury (Hg) inputs to marine ecosystems. One of the challenges in assessing these effects is that the cycling and trophic transfer of Hg are strongly linked to other contaminants and disturbances. In addition to Hg, a major problem facing coastal waters is the impacts of elevated nutrient, particularly nitrogen (N), inputs. Increases in nutrient loading alter coastal ecosystems in ways that should change the transport, transformations and fate of Hg, including increases in fixation of organic carbon and deposition to sediments, decreases in the redox status of sediments and changes in fish habitat. In this paper we present a conceptual model which suggests that increases in loading of reactive N to marine ecosystems might alter Hg dynamics, decreasing bioavailabilty and trophic transfer. This conceptual model is most applicable to coastal waters, but may also be relevant to the pelagic ocean. We present information from case studies that both support and challenge this conceptual model, including marine observations across a nutrient gradient; results of a nutrient-trophic transfer Hg model for pelagic and coastal ecosystems; observations of Hg species, and nutrients from coastal sediments in the northeastern U.S.; and an analysis of fish Hg concentrations in estuaries under different nutrient loadings. These case studies suggest that changes in nutrient loading can impact Hg dynamics in coastal and open ocean ecosystems. Unfortunately none of the case studies is comprehensive; each only addresses a portion of the conceptual model and has limitations. Nevertheless, our conceptual model has important management implications. Many estuaries near developed areas are impaired due to elevated nutrient inputs. Widespread efforts are underway to control N loading and restore coastal ecosystem function. An unintended consequence of nutrient control measures could be to exacerbate problems associated with Hg contamination. Additional focused research and monitoring are needed to critically examine the link between nutrient supply and Hg contamination of marine waters. PMID:22749872

Modeling soil moisture memory in savanna ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gou, S.; Miller, G. R.

2011-12-01

Antecedent soil conditions create an ecosystem's "memory" of past rainfall events. Such soil moisture memory effects may be observed over a range of timescales, from daily to yearly, and lead to feedbacks between hydrological and ecosystem processes. In this study, we modeled the soil moisture memory effect on savanna ecosystems in California, Arizona, and Africa, using a system dynamics model created to simulate the ecohydrological processes at the plot-scale. The model was carefully calibrated using soil moisture and evapotranspiration data collected at three study sites. The model was then used to simulate scenarios with various initial soil moisture conditions and antecedent precipitation regimes, in order to study the soil moisture memory effects on the evapotranspiration of understory and overstory species. Based on the model results, soil texture and antecedent precipitation regime impact the redistribution of water within soil layers, potentially causing deeper soil layers to influence the ecosystem for a longer time. Of all the study areas modeled, soil moisture memory of California savanna ecosystem site is replenished and dries out most rapidly. Thus soil moisture memory could not maintain the high rate evapotranspiration for more than a few days without incoming rainfall event. On the contrary, soil moisture memory of Arizona savanna ecosystem site lasts the longest time. The plants with different root depths respond to different memory effects; shallow-rooted species mainly respond to the soil moisture memory in the shallow soil. The growing season of grass is largely depended on the soil moisture memory of the top 25cm soil layer. Grass transpiration is sensitive to the antecedent precipitation events within daily to weekly timescale. Deep-rooted plants have different responses since these species can access to the deeper soil moisture memory with longer time duration Soil moisture memory does not have obvious impacts on the phenology of woody plants, as these can maintain transpiration for a longer time even through the top soil layer dries out.

Trophic flow structure of a neotropical estuary in northeastern Brazil and the comparison of ecosystem model indicators of estuaries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lira, Alex; Angelini, Ronaldo; Le Loc'h, François; Ménard, Frédéric; Lacerda, Carlos; Frédou, Thierry; Lucena Frédou, Flávia

2018-06-01

We developed an Ecopath model for the Estuary of Sirinhaém River (SIR), a small-sized system surrounded by mangroves, subject to high impact, mainly by the sugar cane and other farming industries in order to describe the food web structure and trophic interactions. In addition, we compared our findings with those of 20 available Ecopath estuarine models for tropical, subtropical and temperate regions, aiming to synthesize the knowledge on trophic dynamics and provide a comprehensive analysis of the structures and functioning of estuaries. Our model consisted of 25 compartments and its indicators were within the expected range for estuarine areas around the world. The average trophic transfer efficiency for the entire system was 11.8%, similar to the theoretical value of 10%. The Keystone Index and MTI (Mixed Trophic Impact) analysis indicated that the snook (Centropomus undecimalis and Centropomus parallelus) and jack (Caranx latus and Caranx hippos) are considered as key resources in the system, revealing their high impact in the food web. Both groups have a high ecological and commercial relevance, despite the unregulated fisheries. As result of the comparison of ecosystem model indicators in estuaries, differences in the ecosystem structure from the low latitude zones (tropical estuaries) to the high latitude zones (temperate system) were noticed. The structure of temperate and sub-tropical estuaries is based on high flows of detritus and export, while tropical systems have high biomass, respiration and consumption rates. Higher values of System Omnivory Index (SOI) and Overhead (SO) were observed in the tropical and subtropical estuaries, denoting a more complex food chain. Globally, none of the estuarine models were classified as fully mature ecosystems, although the tropical ecosystems were considered more mature than the subtropical and temperate ecosystems. This study is an important contribution to the trophic modeling of estuaries, which may also help the knowledge of the role of key ecosystem processes in SIR.

Assessing The Ecosystem Service Freshwater Production From An Integrated Water Resources Management Perspective. Case Study: The Tormes Water Resources System (Spain)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Momblanch, Andrea; Paredes-Arquiola, Javier; Andreu, Joaquín; Solera, Abel

2014-05-01

The Ecosystem Services are defined as the conditions and processes through which natural ecosystems, and the species that make them up, sustain and fulfil human life. A strongly related concept is the Integrated Water Resources Management. It is a process which promotes the coordinated development and management of water, land and related resources in order to maximise the resultant economic and social welfare in an equitable manner without compromising the sustainability of vital ecosystems. From these definitions, it is clear that in order to cover so many water management and ecosystems related aspects the use of integrative models is increasingly necessary. In this study, we propose to link a hydrologic model and a water allocation model in order to assess the Freshwater Production as an Ecosystem Service in anthropised river basins. First, the hydrological model allows determining the volume of water generated by each sub-catchment; that is, the biophysical quantification of the service. This result shows the relevance of each sub-catchment as a source of freshwater and how this could change if the land uses are modified. On the other hand, the water management model allocates the available water resources among the different water uses. Then, it is possible to provide an economic value to the water resources through the use of demand curves, or other economic concepts. With this second model, we are able to obtain the economical quantification of the Ecosystem Service. Besides, the influence of water management and infrastructures on the service provision can be analysed. The methodology is applied to the Tormes Water Resources System, in Spain. The software used are EVALHID and SIMGES, for hydrological and management aspects, respectively. Both models are included in the Decision Support System Shell AQUATOOL for water resources planning and management. A scenario approach is presented to illustrate the potential of the methodology, including the current state and some intervention scenarios.

Assessment of coastal management options by means of multilayered ecosystem models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nobre, Ana M.; Ferreira, João G.; Nunes, João P.; Yan, Xiaojun; Bricker, Suzanne; Corner, Richard; Groom, Steve; Gu, Haifeng; Hawkins, Anthony J. S.; Hutson, Rory; Lan, Dongzhao; Silva, João D. Lencart e.; Pascoe, Philip; Telfer, Trevor; Zhang, Xuelei; Zhu, Mingyuan

2010-03-01

This paper presents a multilayered ecosystem modelling approach that combines the simulation of the biogeochemistry of a coastal ecosystem with the simulation of the main forcing functions, such as catchment loading and aquaculture activities. This approach was developed as a tool for sustainable management of coastal ecosystems. A key feature is to simulate management scenarios that account for changes in multiple uses and enable assessment of cumulative impacts of coastal activities. The model was applied to a coastal zone in China with large aquaculture production and multiple catchment uses, and where management efforts to improve water quality are under way. Development scenarios designed in conjunction with local managers and aquaculture producers include the reduction of fish cages and treatment of wastewater. Despite the reduction in nutrient loading simulated in three different scenarios, inorganic nutrient concentrations in the bay were predicted to exceed the thresholds for poor quality defined by Chinese seawater quality legislation. For all scenarios there is still a Moderate High to High nutrient loading from the catchment, so further reductions might be enacted, together with additional decreases in fish cage culture. The model predicts that overall, shellfish production decreases by 10%-28% using any of these development scenarios, principally because shellfish growth is being sustained by the substances to be reduced for improvement of water quality. The model outcomes indicate that this may be counteracted by zoning of shellfish aquaculture at the ecosystem level in order to optimize trade-offs between productivity and environmental effects. The present case study exemplifies the value of multilayered ecosystem modelling as a tool for Integrated Coastal Zone Management and for the adoption of ecosystem approaches for marine resource management. This modelling approach can be applied worldwide, and may be particularly useful for the application of coastal management regulation, for instance in the implementation of the European Marine Strategy Framework Directive.

Nutrient supply and mercury dynamics in marine ecosystems: a conceptual model.

PubMed

Driscoll, Charles T; Chen, Celia Y; Hammerschmidt, Chad R; Mason, Robert P; Gilmour, Cynthia C; Sunderland, Elsie M; Greenfield, Ben K; Buckman, Kate L; Lamborg, Carl H

2012-11-01

There is increasing interest and concern over the impacts of mercury (Hg) inputs to marine ecosystems. One of the challenges in assessing these effects is that the cycling and trophic transfer of Hg are strongly linked to other contaminants and disturbances. In addition to Hg, a major problem facing coastal waters is the impacts of elevated nutrient, particularly nitrogen (N), inputs. Increases in nutrient loading alter coastal ecosystems in ways that should change the transport, transformations and fate of Hg, including increases in fixation of organic carbon and deposition to sediments, decreases in the redox status of sediments and changes in fish habitat. In this paper we present a conceptual model which suggests that increases in loading of reactive N to marine ecosystems might alter Hg dynamics, decreasing bioavailabilty and trophic transfer. This conceptual model is most applicable to coastal waters, but may also be relevant to the pelagic ocean. We present information from case studies that both support and challenge this conceptual model, including marine observations across a nutrient gradient; results of a nutrient-trophic transfer Hg model for pelagic and coastal ecosystems; observations of Hg species, and nutrients from coastal sediments in the northeastern U.S.; and an analysis of fish Hg concentrations in estuaries under different nutrient loadings. These case studies suggest that changes in nutrient loading can impact Hg dynamics in coastal and open ocean ecosystems. Unfortunately none of the case studies is comprehensive; each only addresses a portion of the conceptual model and has limitations. Nevertheless, our conceptual model has important management implications. Many estuaries near developed areas are impaired due to elevated nutrient inputs. Widespread efforts are underway to control N loading and restore coastal ecosystem function. An unintended consequence of nutrient control measures could be to exacerbate problems associated with Hg contamination. Additional focused research and monitoring are needed to critically examine the link between nutrient supply and Hg contamination of marine waters. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Bayesian calibration of terrestrial ecosystem models: a study of advanced Markov chain Monte Carlo methods

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lu, Dan; Ricciuto, Daniel M.; Walker, Anthony P.

Calibration of terrestrial ecosystem models is important but challenging. Bayesian inference implemented by Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling provides a comprehensive framework to estimate model parameters and associated uncertainties using their posterior distributions. The effectiveness and efficiency of the method strongly depend on the MCMC algorithm used. In this work, a differential evolution adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) algorithm is used to estimate posterior distributions of 21 parameters for the data assimilation linked ecosystem carbon (DALEC) model using 14 years of daily net ecosystem exchange data collected at the Harvard Forest Environmental Measurement Site eddy-flux tower. The calibration of DREAM results inmore » a better model fit and predictive performance compared to the popular adaptive Metropolis (AM) scheme. Moreover, DREAM indicates that two parameters controlling autumn phenology have multiple modes in their posterior distributions while AM only identifies one mode. The application suggests that DREAM is very suitable to calibrate complex terrestrial ecosystem models, where the uncertain parameter size is usually large and existence of local optima is always a concern. In addition, this effort justifies the assumptions of the error model used in Bayesian calibration according to the residual analysis. Here, the result indicates that a heteroscedastic, correlated, Gaussian error model is appropriate for the problem, and the consequent constructed likelihood function can alleviate the underestimation of parameter uncertainty that is usually caused by using uncorrelated error models.« less

Bayesian calibration of terrestrial ecosystem models: a study of advanced Markov chain Monte Carlo methods

DOE PAGES

Lu, Dan; Ricciuto, Daniel M.; Walker, Anthony P.; ...

2017-09-27

Calibration of terrestrial ecosystem models is important but challenging. Bayesian inference implemented by Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling provides a comprehensive framework to estimate model parameters and associated uncertainties using their posterior distributions. The effectiveness and efficiency of the method strongly depend on the MCMC algorithm used. In this work, a differential evolution adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) algorithm is used to estimate posterior distributions of 21 parameters for the data assimilation linked ecosystem carbon (DALEC) model using 14 years of daily net ecosystem exchange data collected at the Harvard Forest Environmental Measurement Site eddy-flux tower. The calibration of DREAM results inmore » a better model fit and predictive performance compared to the popular adaptive Metropolis (AM) scheme. Moreover, DREAM indicates that two parameters controlling autumn phenology have multiple modes in their posterior distributions while AM only identifies one mode. The application suggests that DREAM is very suitable to calibrate complex terrestrial ecosystem models, where the uncertain parameter size is usually large and existence of local optima is always a concern. In addition, this effort justifies the assumptions of the error model used in Bayesian calibration according to the residual analysis. Here, the result indicates that a heteroscedastic, correlated, Gaussian error model is appropriate for the problem, and the consequent constructed likelihood function can alleviate the underestimation of parameter uncertainty that is usually caused by using uncorrelated error models.« less

Tropical forest response to elevated CO2: Model-experiment integration at the AmazonFACE site.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frankenberg, C.; Berry, J. A.; Guanter, L.; Joiner, J.

2014-12-01

The terrestrial biosphere's response to current and future elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide (eCO2) is a large source of uncertainty in future projections of the C cycle, climate and ecosystem functioning. In particular, the sensitivity of tropical rainforest ecosystems to eCO­2 is largely unknown even though the importance of tropical forests for biodiversity, carbon storage and regional and global climate feedbacks is unambiguously recognized. The AmazonFACE (Free-Air Carbon Enrichment) project will be the first ecosystem scale eCO2 experiment undertaken in the tropics, as well as the first to be undertaken in a mature forest. AmazonFACE provides the opportunity to integrate ecosystem modeling with experimental observations right from the beginning of the experiment, harboring a two-way exchange, i.e. models provide hypotheses to be tested, and observations deliver the crucial data to test and improve ecosystem models. We present preliminary exploration of observed and expected process responses to eCO2 at the AmazonFACE site from the dynamic global vegetation model LPJ-GUESS, highlighting opportunities and pitfalls for model integration of tropical FACE experiments. The preliminary analysis provides baseline hypotheses, which are to be further developed with a follow-up multiple model inter-comparison. The analysis builds on the recently undertaken FACE-MDS (Model-Data Synthesis) project, which was applied to two temperate FACE experiments and exceeds the traditional focus on comparing modeled end-target output. The approach has proven successful in identifying well (and less well) represented processes in models, which are separated for six clusters also here; (1) Carbon fluxes, (2) Carbon pools, (3) Energy balance, (4) Hydrology, (5) Nutrient cycling, and (6) Population dynamics. Simulation performance of observed conditions at the AmazonFACE site (a.o. from Manaus K34 eddy flux tower) will highlight process-based model deficiencies, and aid the separation of uncertainties arising from general ecosystem responses and those responses related to eCO2.

Tropical forest response to elevated CO2: Model-experiment integration at the AmazonFACE site.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fleischer, K.

2015-12-01

The terrestrial biosphere's response to current and future elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide (eCO2) is a large source of uncertainty in future projections of the C cycle, climate and ecosystem functioning. In particular, the sensitivity of tropical rainforest ecosystems to eCO­2 is largely unknown even though the importance of tropical forests for biodiversity, carbon storage and regional and global climate feedbacks is unambiguously recognized. The AmazonFACE (Free-Air Carbon Enrichment) project will be the first ecosystem scale eCO2 experiment undertaken in the tropics, as well as the first to be undertaken in a mature forest. AmazonFACE provides the opportunity to integrate ecosystem modeling with experimental observations right from the beginning of the experiment, harboring a two-way exchange, i.e. models provide hypotheses to be tested, and observations deliver the crucial data to test and improve ecosystem models. We present preliminary exploration of observed and expected process responses to eCO2 at the AmazonFACE site from the dynamic global vegetation model LPJ-GUESS, highlighting opportunities and pitfalls for model integration of tropical FACE experiments. The preliminary analysis provides baseline hypotheses, which are to be further developed with a follow-up multiple model inter-comparison. The analysis builds on the recently undertaken FACE-MDS (Model-Data Synthesis) project, which was applied to two temperate FACE experiments and exceeds the traditional focus on comparing modeled end-target output. The approach has proven successful in identifying well (and less well) represented processes in models, which are separated for six clusters also here; (1) Carbon fluxes, (2) Carbon pools, (3) Energy balance, (4) Hydrology, (5) Nutrient cycling, and (6) Population dynamics. Simulation performance of observed conditions at the AmazonFACE site (a.o. from Manaus K34 eddy flux tower) will highlight process-based model deficiencies, and aid the separation of uncertainties arising from general ecosystem responses and those responses related to eCO2.

Dynamics of Ecosystem Services during Forest Transitions in Reventazón, Costa Rica.

PubMed

Vallet, Améline; Locatelli, Bruno; Levrel, Harold; Brenes Pérez, Christian; Imbach, Pablo; Estrada Carmona, Natalia; Manlay, Raphaël; Oszwald, Johan

2016-01-01

The forest transition framework describes the temporal changes of forest areas with economic development. A first phase of forest contraction is followed by a second phase of expansion once a turning point is reached. This framework does not differentiate forest types or ecosystem services, and describes forests regardless of their contribution to human well-being. For several decades, deforestation in many tropical regions has degraded ecosystem services, such as watershed regulation, while increasing provisioning services from agriculture, for example, food. Forest transitions and expansion have been observed in some countries, but their consequences for ecosystem services are often unclear. We analyzed the implications of forest cover change on ecosystem services in Costa Rica, where a forest transition has been suggested. A review of literature and secondary data on forest and ecosystem services in Costa Rica indicated that forest transition might have led to an ecosystem services transition. We modeled and mapped the changes of selected ecosystem services in the upper part of the Reventazón watershed and analyzed how supply changed over time in order to identify possible transitions in ecosystem services. The modeled changes of ecosystem services is similar to the second phase of a forest transition but no turning point was identified, probably because of the limited temporal scope of the analysis. Trends of provisioning and regulating services and their tradeoffs were opposite in different spatial subunits of our study area, which highlights the importance of scale in the analysis of ecosystem services and forest transitions. The ecosystem services transition framework proposed in this study is useful for analyzing the temporal changes of ecosystem services and linking socio-economic drivers to ecosystem services demand at different scales.

Dynamics of Ecosystem Services during Forest Transitions in Reventazón, Costa Rica

PubMed Central

Vallet, Améline; Locatelli, Bruno; Levrel, Harold; Brenes Pérez, Christian; Imbach, Pablo; Estrada Carmona, Natalia; Manlay, Raphaël; Oszwald, Johan

2016-01-01

The forest transition framework describes the temporal changes of forest areas with economic development. A first phase of forest contraction is followed by a second phase of expansion once a turning point is reached. This framework does not differentiate forest types or ecosystem services, and describes forests regardless of their contribution to human well-being. For several decades, deforestation in many tropical regions has degraded ecosystem services, such as watershed regulation, while increasing provisioning services from agriculture, for example, food. Forest transitions and expansion have been observed in some countries, but their consequences for ecosystem services are often unclear. We analyzed the implications of forest cover change on ecosystem services in Costa Rica, where a forest transition has been suggested. A review of literature and secondary data on forest and ecosystem services in Costa Rica indicated that forest transition might have led to an ecosystem services transition. We modeled and mapped the changes of selected ecosystem services in the upper part of the Reventazón watershed and analyzed how supply changed over time in order to identify possible transitions in ecosystem services. The modeled changes of ecosystem services is similar to the second phase of a forest transition but no turning point was identified, probably because of the limited temporal scope of the analysis. Trends of provisioning and regulating services and their tradeoffs were opposite in different spatial subunits of our study area, which highlights the importance of scale in the analysis of ecosystem services and forest transitions. The ecosystem services transition framework proposed in this study is useful for analyzing the temporal changes of ecosystem services and linking socio-economic drivers to ecosystem services demand at different scales. PMID:27390869

An eco-hydrological modeling framework for assessing trade-offs among ecosystem services in response to alternative land use scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mckane, R.; Abdelnour, A. G.; Brookes, A.; Djang, K.; Stieglitz, M.; Pan, F.; Bolte, J.; Papenfus, M.; Burdick, C.

2012-12-01

Scientists, policymakers, community planners and others have discussed ecosystem services for decades, however, society is still in the early stages of developing methodologies to quantify and value the services that ecosystems provide. For example, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency recently established the Sustainable and Healthy Communities Research Program to develop such methodologies, so that natural capital can be better accounted for in decisions that affect the supply of the ecosystem goods and services upon which human well-being depends. Essential to this goal are highly integrated models that can be used to define policy and management strategies for entire ecosystems, not simply individual components of the ecosystem. We developed the VELMA (Visualizing Ecosystems for Land Management Assessments) eco-hydrologic modeling framework to help address this emerging risk assessment objective. Here we describe a proof-of-concept application of VELMA to the H.J. Andrews Experimental Forest, a forested 64 km2 basin and Long Term Ecological Research site in the western Cascade Range of Oregon, USA. VELMA is a spatially-distributed eco-hydrologic model that links a land surface hydrologic model with a terrestrial biogeochemistry model for simulating the integrated responses of vegetation, soil, and water resources to interacting stressors. We used the model to simulate the effects of three different land use scenarios (100% old-growth, 100% clearcut harvest, and present-day land cover consisting of 45% old-growth and 55% harvested) on trade-offs among five ecosystem services: timber production, carbon sequestration, greenhouse gas regulation, water quantity, and water quality. Compared to the old-growth simulation, over a 60-yr period the clearcut simulation reduced total ecosystem carbon stocks (-40%), and initially increased total stream discharge (+28%), stream nitrogen export (>300%), and total CO2 and N2O radiative forcing (>200%). The simulation for present-day land cover resulted in intermediate values, albeit substantially closer to old growth than to clearcut values. Ongoing work is focused on incorporating VELMA within a flexible decision support platform (Envision) that integrates a wide variety of models, decision tools, and datasets for evaluating economic, social and environmental trade-offs associated with alternative decision scenarios. This framework will be used to address questions about the sustainability of natural capital vital to local and regional economies, initially in the PNW and Great Plains. For example, can those factors that have the greatest potential to improve future trajectories of ecosystem services and human well-being be identified? What green and grey infrastructure improvements, carbon and nitrogen management practices, and growth and development policies can most effectively be managed to attain a sustainable and desirable future?

Global variation of carbon use efficiency in terrestrial ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Xiaolu; Carvalhais, Nuno; Moura, Catarina; Reichstein, Markus

2017-04-01

Carbon use efficiency (CUE), defined as the ratio between net primary production (NPP) and gross primary production (GPP), is an emergent property of vegetation that describes its effectiveness in storing carbon (C) and is of significance for understanding C biosphere-atmosphere exchange dynamics. A constant CUE value of 0.5 has been widely used in terrestrial C-cycle models, such as the Carnegie-Ames-Stanford-Approach model, or the Marine Biological Laboratory/Soil Plant-Atmosphere Canopy Model, for regional or global modeling purposes. However, increasing evidence argues that CUE is not constant, but varies with ecosystem types, site fertility, climate, site management and forest age. Hence, the assumption of a constant CUE of 0.5 can produce great uncertainty in estimating global carbon dynamics between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere. Here, in order to analyze the global variations in CUE and understand how CUE varies with environmental variables, a global database was constructed based on published data for crops, forests, grasslands, wetlands and tundra ecosystems. In addition to CUE data, were also collected: GPP and NPP; site variables (e.g. climate zone, site management and plant function type); climate variables (e.g. temperature and precipitation); additional carbon fluxes (e.g. soil respiration, autotrophic respiration and heterotrophic respiration); and carbon pools (e.g. stem, leaf and root biomass). Different climate metrics were derived to diagnose seasonal temperature (mean annual temperature, MAT, and maximum temperature, Tmax) and water availability proxies (mean annual precipitation, MAP, and Palmer Drought Severity Index), in order to improve the local representation of environmental variables. Additionally were also included vegetation phenology dynamics as observed by different vegetation indices from the MODIS satellite. The mean CUE of all terrestrial ecosystems was 0.45, 10% lower than the previous assumed constant CUE of 0.50. CUE varied significantly between sites - from 0.13 to 0.93 - and between ecosystem types, ranging between 0.41 and 0.60, decreasing from wetlands, to tundra, to croplands, to grasslands until the lower CUE found on average for forested ecosystems. Our analysis shows that ecosystem type was the most important predictor of CUE in terrestrial ecosystems, immediately followed by Tmax; MAT and management practices. For crop, forest and wetland ecosystems CUE varied with climate zones and a strong linear negative correlation was found between CUE and MAT and MAP for grassland ecosystems. Overall, the interaction between different environmental variables showed significant effects on CUE for all ecosystem types. Our results challenge the consideration of a constant value of 0.5 for modeling global purposes, and argue for a deeper understanding of environmental controls on CUE for different ecosystem types.

An Integrated Modeling Framework Forecasting Ecosystem Services: Application to the Albemarle Pamlico Basins, NC and VA (USA)

EPA Science Inventory

We demonstrate an Integrated Modeling Framework that predicts the state of freshwater ecosystem services within the Albemarle-Pamlico Basins. The Framework consists of three facilitating technologies: Data for Environmental Modeling (D4EM) that automates the collection and standa...

An Integrated Modeling Framework Forcasting Ecosystem Services--Application to the Albemarle Pamlico Basins, NC and VA (USA) and Beyond

EPA Science Inventory

We demonstrate an Integrated Modeling Framework that predicts the state of freshwater ecosystem services within the Albemarle-Pamlico Basins. The Framework consists of three facilitating technologies: Data for Environmental Modeling (D4EM) that automates the collection and standa...

CLIMATIC EFFECTS ON TUNDRA CARBON STORAGE INFERRED FROM EXPERIMENTAL DATA AND A MODEL

EPA Science Inventory

We used a process-based model of ecosystem carbon (C) and nitrogen (N)dynamics, MBL-GEM (Marine Biological Laboratory General Ecosystem Model), to integrated and analyze the results of several experiments that examined the response of arctic tussock tundra to manipulations of CO2...

Ecosystem modeling of coastal acidification and hypoxia and structural uncertainties in the representation of sediment-water exchanges

EPA Science Inventory

Numerical ecosystem models of coastal acidification (CA) and hypoxia have been developed to synthesize current scientific understanding and provide predictions for nutrient management and policy. However, there is not a scientific consensus about the structure of these models an...

Designing Informal Learning Experiences for Early Career Academics Using a Knowledge Ecosystem Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Miller, Faye; Partridge, Helen; Bruce, Christine; Hemmings, Brian

2017-01-01

This article presents a "knowledge ecosystem" model of how early career academics experience using information to learn while building their social networks for developmental purposes. Developed using grounded theory methodology, the model offers a way of conceptualising how to empower early career academics through (1) agency…

Exploring Third-Grade Student Model-Based Explanations about Plant Relationships within an Ecosystem

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zangori, Laura; Forbes, Cory T.

2015-01-01

Elementary students should have opportunities to develop scientific models to reason and build understanding about how and why plants depend on relationships within an ecosystem for growth and survival. However, scientific modeling practices are rarely included within elementary science learning environments and disciplinary content is often…

Using Bayesian Stable Isotope Mixing Models to Enhance Marine Ecosystem Models

EPA Science Inventory

The use of stable isotopes in food web studies has proven to be a valuable tool for ecologists. We investigated the use of Bayesian stable isotope mixing models as constraints for an ecosystem model of a temperate seagrass system on the Atlantic coast of France. δ13C and δ15N i...

Analyzing the ecosystem carbon and hydrologic characteristics of forested wetland using a biogeochemical process model

Treesearch

Jianbo Cui; Changsheng Li; Carl Trettin

2005-01-01

A comprehensive biogeochemical model, Wetland-DNDC, was applied to analyze the carbon and hydrologic characteristics of forested wetland ecosystem at Minnesota (MN) and Florida (FL) sites. The model simulates the flows of carbon, energy, and water in forested wetlands. Modeled carbon dynamics depends on physiological plant factors, the size of plant pools,...

Measuring and modelling ecosystem productivity: a PhenoCam-based approach.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hufkens, K.; Keenan, T. F.; Flanagan, L. B.; Richardson, A. D.

2015-12-01

Phenology controls feedbacks to the climate system through abiotic and biotic forces such as albedo or fluxes of water, energy and CO2. Understanding and modelling these vegetation-climate feedbacks is key to accurately predicting a future climate. For the past 6 years the PhenoCam network, a network of near-surface remote sensing cameras, has consistently monitored vegetation phenology in a wide range of ecoregions, climate zones, and plant functional types. Here we explore the tight coupling between canopy greenness and rates of photosynthesis using two studies. A first study highlights how PhenoCam data can be used to quantify the effect of a late spring frost event on ecosystem productivity, introducing a 7-14% loss in annual gross productivity across 8753 km2 in the northeastern United States. This case study emphasizes the use of the PhenoCam data in estimating productivity loss / the opportunity cost of ecosystem disturbance in areas not covered by ecosystem flux measurement equipment. In a more recent, second, study we developed a PhenoCam data-informed pulse-response model of grassland growth to explore potential responses of grasslands to future climate change across North America. Our findings projected widespread and consistent increase in grassland productivity (for the current range of grassland ecosystems of North American) over the coming century, despite a general increase in aridity projected across most of our study area. Once more PhenoCam data allowed us to inform our modelling efforts with data of a high temporal and spatial resolution. In conclusion, both studies illustrate direct applications of the ever growing PhenoCam network (http://phenocam.sr.unh.edu/webcam/) in scaling the effects of ecosystem disturbances, predicting future ecosystem productivity and underscore the complementary nature of PhenoCam data with ecosystem exchange measurements.

Taking the pulse of mountains: Ecosystem responses to climatic variability

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fagre, Daniel B.; Peterson, David L.; Hessl, Amy E.

2003-01-01

An integrated program of ecosystem modeling and field studies in the mountains of the Pacific Northwest (U.S.A.) has quantified many of the ecological processes affected by climatic variability. Paleoecological and contemporary ecological data in forest ecosystems provided model parameterization and validation at broad spatial and temporal scales for tree growth, tree regeneration and treeline movement. For subalpine tree species, winter precipitation has a strong negative correlation with growth; this relationship is stronger at higher elevations and west-side sites (which have more precipitation). Temperature affects tree growth at some locations with respect to length of growing season (spring) and severity of drought at drier sites (summer). Furthermore, variable but predictable climate-growth relationships across elevation gradients suggest that tree species respond differently to climate at different locations, making a uniform response of these species to future climatic change unlikely. Multi-decadal variability in climate also affects ecosystem processes. Mountain hemlock growth at high-elevation sites is negatively correlated with winter snow depth and positively correlated with the winter Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index. At low elevations, the reverse is true. Glacier mass balance and fire severity are also linked to PDO. Rapid establishment of trees in subalpine ecosystems during this century is increasing forest cover and reducing meadow cover at many subalpine locations in the western U.S.A. and precipitation (snow depth) is a critical variable regulating conifer expansion. Lastly, modeling potential future ecosystem conditions suggests that increased climatic variability will result in increasing forest fire size and frequency, and reduced net primary productivity in drier, east-side forest ecosystems. As additional empirical data and modeling output become available, we will improve our ability to predict the effects of climatic change across a broad range of climates and mountain ecosystems in the northwestern U.S.A.

Ecosystem Risk Assessment Using the Comprehensive Assessment of Risk to Ecosystems (CARE) Tool

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Battista, W.; Fujita, R.; Karr, K.

2016-12-01

Effective Ecosystem Based Management requires a localized understanding of the health and functioning of a given system as well as of the various factors that may threaten the ongoing ability of the system to support the provision of valued services. Several risk assessment models are available that can provide a scientific basis for understanding these factors and for guiding management action, but these models focus mainly on single species and evaluate only the impacts of fishing in detail. We have developed a new ecosystem risk assessment model - the Comprehensive Assessment of Risk to Ecosystems (CARE) - that allows analysts to consider the cumulative impact of multiple threats, interactions among multiple threats that may result in synergistic or antagonistic impacts, and the impacts of a suite of threats on whole-ecosystem productivity and functioning, as well as on specific ecosystem services. The CARE model was designed to be completed in as little as two hours, and uses local and expert knowledge where data are lacking. The CARE tool can be used to evaluate risks facing a single site; to compare multiple sites for the suitability or necessity of different management options; or to evaluate the effects of a proposed management action aimed at reducing one or more risks. This analysis can help users identify which threats are the most important at a given site, and therefore where limited management resources should be targeted. CARE can be applied to virtually any system, and can be modified as knowledge is gained or to better match different site characteristics. CARE builds on previous ecosystem risk assessment tools to provide a comprehensive assessment of fishing and non-fishing threats that can be used to inform environmental management decisions across a broad range of systems.

Ecosystem Risk Assessment Using the Comprehensive Assessment of Risk to Ecosystems (CARE) Tool

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Battista, W.; Fujita, R.; Karr, K.

2016-02-01

Effective Ecosystem Based Management requires a localized understanding of the health and functioning of a given system as well as of the various factors that may threaten the ongoing ability of the system to support the provision of valued services. Several risk assessment models are available that can provide a scientific basis for understanding these factors and for guiding management action, but these models focus mainly on single species and evaluate only the impacts of fishing in detail. We have developed a new ecosystem risk assessment model - the Comprehensive Assessment of Risk to Ecosystems (CARE) - that allows analysts to consider the cumulative impact of multiple threats, interactions among multiple threats that may result in synergistic or antagonistic impacts, and the impacts of a suite of threats on whole-ecosystem productivity and functioning, as well as on specific ecosystem services. The CARE model was designed to be completed in as little as two hours, and uses local and expert knowledge where data are lacking. The CARE tool can be used to evaluate risks facing a single site; to compare multiple sites for the suitability or necessity of different management options; or to evaluate the effects of a proposed management action aimed at reducing one or more risks. This analysis can help users identify which threats are the most important at a given site, and therefore where limited management resources should be targeted. CARE can be applied to virtually any system, and can be modified as knowledge is gained or to better match different site characteristics. CARE builds on previous ecosystem risk assessment tools to provide a comprehensive assessment of fishing and non-fishing threats that can be used to inform environmental management decisions across a broad range of systems.

Approaches to modelling hydrology and ecosystem interactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silberstein, Richard P.

2014-05-01

As the pressures of industry, agriculture and mining on groundwater resources increase there is a burgeoning un-met need to be able to capture these multiple, direct and indirect stresses in a formal framework that will enable better assessment of impact scenarios. While there are many catchment hydrological models and there are some models that represent ecological states and change (e.g. FLAMES, Liedloff and Cook, 2007), these have not been linked in any deterministic or substantive way. Without such coupled eco-hydrological models quantitative assessments of impacts from water use intensification on water dependent ecosystems under changing climate are difficult, if not impossible. The concept would include facility for direct and indirect water related stresses that may develop around mining and well operations, climate stresses, such as rainfall and temperature, biological stresses, such as diseases and invasive species, and competition such as encroachment from other competing land uses. Indirect water impacts could be, for example, a change in groundwater conditions has an impact on stream flow regime, and hence aquatic ecosystems. This paper reviews previous work examining models combining ecology and hydrology with a view to developing a conceptual framework linking a biophysically defensable model that combines ecosystem function with hydrology. The objective is to develop a model capable of representing the cumulative impact of multiple stresses on water resources and associated ecosystem function.

Spatially explicit simulation of hydrologically controlled carbon and nitrogen cycles and associated feedback mechanisms in a boreal ecosystem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Govind, Ajit; Chen, Jing Ming; Ju, Weimin

2009-06-01

Ecosystem models that simulate biogeochemical processes usually ignore hydrological controls that govern them. It is quite possible that topographically driven water fluxes significantly influence the spatial distribution of C sources and sinks because of their large contribution to the local water balance. To investigate this, we simulated biogeochemical processes along with the associated feedback mechanisms in a boreal ecosystem using a spatially explicit hydroecological model, boreal ecosystem productivity simulator (BEPS)-TerrainLab V2.0, that has a tight coupling of ecophysiological, hydrological, and biogeochemical processes. First, the simulated dynamics of snowpack, soil temperature, net ecosystem productivity (NEP), and total ecosystem respiration (TER) were validated with high-frequency measurements for 2 years. The model was able to explain 80% of the variability in NEP and 84% of the variability in TER. Further, we investigated the influence of topographically driven subsurface base flow on soil C and N cycling and on the spatiotemporal patterns of C sources and sinks using three hydrological modeling scenarios that differed in hydrological conceptualizations. In general, the scenarios that had nonexplicit hydrological representation overestimated NEP, as opposed to the scenario that had an explicit (realistic) representation. The key processes controlling the NEP differences were attributed to the combined effects of variations in photosynthesis (due to changes in stomatal conductance and nitrogen (N) availability), heterotrophic respiration, and autotrophic respiration, all of which occur simultaneously affecting NEP. Feedback relationships were also found to exacerbate the differences. We identified six types of NEP differences (biases), of which the most commonly found was due to an underestimation of the existing C sources, highlighting the vulnerability of regional-scale ecosystem models that ignore hydrological processes.

Plant functional diversity increases grassland productivity-related water vapor fluxes: an Ecotron and modeling approach.

PubMed

Milcu, Alexandru; Eugster, Werner; Bachmann, Dörte; Guderle, Marcus; Roscher, Christiane; Gockele, Annette; Landais, Damien; Ravel, Olivier; Gessler, Arthur; Lange, Markus; Ebeling, Anne; Weisser, Wolfgang W; Roy, Jacques; Hildebrandt, Anke; Buchmann, Nina

2016-08-01

The impact of species richness and functional diversity of plants on ecosystem water vapor fluxes has been little investigated. To address this knowledge gap, we combined a lysimeter setup in a controlled environment facility (Ecotron) with large ecosystem samples/monoliths originating from a long-term biodiversity experiment (The Jena Experiment) and a modeling approach. Our goals were (1) quantifying the impact of plant species richness (four vs. 16 species) on day- and nighttime ecosystem water vapor fluxes; (2) partitioning ecosystem evapotranspiration into evaporation and plant transpiration using the Shuttleworth and Wallace (SW) energy partitioning model; and (3) identifying the most parsimonious predictors of water vapor fluxes using plant functional-trait-based metrics such as functional diversity and community weighted means. Daytime measured and modeled evapotranspiration were significantly higher in the higher plant diversity treatment, suggesting increased water acquisition. The SW model suggests that, at low plant species richness, a higher proportion of the available energy was diverted to evaporation (a non-productive flux), while, at higher species richness, the proportion of ecosystem transpiration (a productivity-related water flux) increased. While it is well established that LAI controls ecosystem transpiration, here we also identified that the diversity of leaf nitrogen concentration among species in a community is a consistent predictor of ecosystem water vapor fluxes during daytime. The results provide evidence that, at the peak of the growing season, higher leaf area index (LAI) and lower percentage of bare ground at high plant diversity diverts more of the available water to transpiration, a flux closely coupled with photosynthesis and productivity. Higher rates of transpiration presumably contribute to the positive effect of diversity on productivity. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

Sustainable exploitation and management of autogenic ecosystem engineers: application to oysters in Chesapeake Bay.

PubMed

Wilberg, Michael J; Wiedenmann, John R; Robinson, Jason M

2013-06-01

Autogenic ecosystem engineers are critically important parts of many marine and estuarine systems because of their substantial effect on ecosystem services. Oysters are of particular importance because of their capacity to modify coastal and estuarine habitats and the highly degraded status of their habitats worldwide. However, models to predict dynamics of ecosystem engineers have not previously included the effects of exploitation. We developed a linked population and habitat model for autogenic ecosystem engineers undergoing exploitation. We parameterized the model to represent eastern oyster (Crassostrea virginica) in upper Chesapeake Bay by selecting sets of parameter values that matched observed rates of change in abundance and habitat. We used the model to evaluate the effects of a range of management and restoration options including sustainability of historical fishing pressure, effectiveness of a newly enacted sanctuary program, and relative performance of two restoration approaches. In general, autogenic ecosystem engineers are expected to be substantially less resilient to fishing than an equivalent species that does not rely on itself for habitat. Historical fishing mortality rates in upper Chesapeake Bay for oysters were above the levels that would lead to extirpation. Reductions in fishing or closure of the fishery were projected to lead to long-term increases in abundance and habitat. For fisheries to become sustainable outside of sanctuaries, a substantial larval subsidy would be required from oysters within sanctuaries. Restoration efforts using high-relief reefs were predicted to allow recovery within a shorter period of time than low-relief reefs. Models such as ours, that allow for feedbacks between population and habitat dynamics, can be effective tools for guiding management and restoration of autogenic ecosystem engineers.

Inter-annual variability of carbon fluxes in temperate forest ecosystems: effects of biotic and abiotic factors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, M.; Keenan, T. F.; Hufkens, K.; Munger, J. W.; Bohrer, G.; Brzostek, E. R.; Richardson, A. D.

2014-12-01

Carbon dynamics in terrestrial ecosystems are influenced by both abiotic and biotic factors. Abiotic factors, such as variation in meteorological conditions, directly drive biophysical and biogeochemical processes; biotic factors, referring to the inherent properties of the ecosystem components, reflect the internal regulating effects including temporal dynamics and memory. The magnitude of the effect of abiotic and biotic factors on forest ecosystem carbon exchange has been suggested to vary at different time scales. In this study, we design and conduct a model-data fusion experiment to investigate the role and relative importance of the biotic and abiotic factors for inter-annual variability of the net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE) of temperate deciduous forest ecosystems in the Northeastern US. A process-based model (FöBAAR) is parameterized at four eddy-covariance sites using all available flux and biometric measurements. We conducted a "transplant" modeling experiment, that is, cross- site and parameter simulations with different combinations of site meteorology and parameters. Using wavelet analysis and variance partitioning techniques, analysis of model predictions identifies both spatial variant and spatially invariant parameters. Variability of NEE was primarily modulated by gross primary productivity (GPP), with relative contributions varying from hourly to yearly time scales. The inter-annual variability of GPP and NEE is more regulated by meteorological forcing, but spatial variability in certain model parameters (biotic response) has more substantial effects on the inter-annual variability of ecosystem respiration (Reco) through the effects on carbon pools. Both the biotic and abiotic factors play significant roles in modulating the spatial and temporal variability in terrestrial carbon cycling in the region. Together, our study quantifies the relative importance of both, and calls for better understanding of them to better predict regional CO2 exchanges.

Critical Watersheds: Climate Change, Tipping Points, and Energy-Water Impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Middleton, R. S.; Brown, M.; Coon, E.; Linn, R.; McDowell, N. G.; Painter, S. L.; Xu, C.

2014-12-01

Climate change, extreme climate events, and climate-induced disturbances will have a substantial and detrimental impact on terrestrial ecosystems. How ecosystems respond to these impacts will, in turn, have a significant effect on the quantity, quality, and timing of water supply for energy security, agriculture, industry, and municipal use. As a community, we lack sufficient quantitative and mechanistic understanding of the complex interplay between climate extremes (e.g., drought, floods), ecosystem dynamics (e.g., vegetation succession), and disruptive events (e.g., wildfire) to assess ecosystem vulnerabilities and to design mitigation strategies that minimize or prevent catastrophic ecosystem impacts. Through a combination of experimental and observational science and modeling, we are developing a unique multi-physics ecohydrologic framework for understanding and quantifying feedbacks between novel climate and extremes, surface and subsurface hydrology, ecosystem dynamics, and disruptive events in critical watersheds. The simulation capability integrates and advances coupled surface-subsurface hydrology from the Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS), dynamic vegetation succession from the Ecosystem Demography (ED) model, and QUICFIRE, a novel wildfire behavior model developed from the FIRETEC platform. These advances are expected to make extensive contributions to the literature and to earth system modeling. The framework is designed to predict, quantify, and mitigate the impacts of climate change on vulnerable watersheds, with a focus on the US Mountain West and the energy-water nexus. This emerging capability is used to identify tipping points in watershed ecosystems, quantify impacts on downstream users, and formally evaluate mitigation efforts including forest (e.g., thinning, prescribed burns) and watershed (e.g., slope stabilization). The framework is being trained, validated, and demonstrated using field observations and remote data collections in the Valles Caldera National Preserve, including pre- and post-wildfire and infestation observations. Ultimately, the framework will be applied to the upper Colorado River basin. Here, we present an overview of the framework development strategy and latest field and modeling results.

Preventing the collapse of the Baltic cod stock through an ecosystem-based management approach

PubMed Central

Lindegren, Martin; Möllmann, Christian; Nielsen, Anders; Stenseth, Nils C.

2009-01-01

Worldwide a number of fish stocks have collapsed because of overfishing and climate-induced ecosystem changes. Developing ecosystem-based fisheries management (EBFM) to prevent these catastrophic events in the future requires ecological models incorporating both internal food-web dynamics and external drivers such as fishing and climate. Using a stochastic food-web model for a large marine ecosystem (i.e., the Baltic Sea) hosting a commercially important cod stock, we were able to reconstruct the history of the stock. Moreover we demonstrate that in hindsight the collapse could only have been avoidable by adapting fishing pressure to environmental conditions and food-web interactions. The modeling approach presented here represents a significant advance for EBFM, the application of which is important for sustainable resource management in the future. PMID:19706557

The importance of radiation for semiempirical water-use efficiency models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boese, Sven; Jung, Martin; Carvalhais, Nuno; Reichstein, Markus

2017-06-01

Water-use efficiency (WUE) is a fundamental property for the coupling of carbon and water cycles in plants and ecosystems. Existing model formulations predicting this variable differ in the type of response of WUE to the atmospheric vapor pressure deficit of water (VPD). We tested a representative WUE model on the ecosystem scale at 110 eddy covariance sites of the FLUXNET initiative by predicting evapotranspiration (ET) based on gross primary productivity (GPP) and VPD. We found that introducing an intercept term in the formulation increases model performance considerably, indicating that an additional factor needs to be considered. We demonstrate that this intercept term varies seasonally and we subsequently associate it with radiation. Replacing the constant intercept term with a linear function of global radiation was found to further improve model predictions of ET. Our new semiempirical ecosystem WUE formulation indicates that, averaged over all sites, this radiation term accounts for up to half (39-47 %) of transpiration. These empirical findings challenge the current understanding of water-use efficiency on the ecosystem scale.

The impact of human-environment interactions on the stability of forest-grassland mosaic ecosystems

PubMed Central

Innes, Clinton; Anand, Madhur; Bauch, Chris T.

2013-01-01

Forest-grassland mosaic ecosystems can exhibit alternative stables states, whereby under the same environmental conditions, the ecosystem could equally well reside either in one state or another, depending on the initial conditions. We develop a mathematical model that couples a simplified forest-grassland mosaic model to a dynamic model of opinions about conservation priorities in a population, based on perceptions of ecosystem rarity. Weak human influence increases the region of parameter space where alternative stable states are possible. However, strong human influence precludes bistability, such that forest and grassland either co-exist at a single, stable equilibrium, or their relative abundance oscillates. Moreover, a perturbation can shift the system from a stable state to an oscillatory state. We conclude that human-environment interactions can qualitatively alter the composition of forest-grassland mosaic ecosystems. The human role in such systems should be viewed as dynamic, responsive element rather than as a fixed, unchanging entity. PMID:24048359

Redefinition and global estimation of basal ecosystem respiration rate

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yuan, Wenping; Luo, Yiqi; Li, Xianglan

2011-10-13

Basal ecosystem respiration rate (BR), the ecosystem respiration rate at a given temperature, is a common and important parameter in empirical models for quantifying ecosystem respiration (ER) globally. Numerous studies have indicated that BR varies in space. However, many empirical ER models still use a global constant BR largely due to the lack of a functional description for BR. In this study, we redefined BR to be ecosystem respiration rate at the mean annual temperature. To test the validity of this concept, we conducted a synthesis analysis using 276 site-years of eddy covariance data, from 79 research sites located atmore » latitudes ranging from ~3°S to ~70°N. Results showed that mean annual ER rate closely matches ER rate at mean annual temperature. Incorporation of site-specific BR into global ER model substantially improved simulated ER compared to an invariant BR at all sites. These results confirm that ER at the mean annual« less

Pattern formation--A missing link in the study of ecosystem response to environmental changes.

PubMed

Meron, Ehud

2016-01-01

Environmental changes can affect the functioning of an ecosystem directly, through the response of individual life forms, or indirectly, through interspecific interactions and community dynamics. The feasibility of a community-level response has motivated numerous studies aimed at understanding the mutual relationships between three elements of ecosystem dynamics: the abiotic environment, biodiversity and ecosystem function. Since ecosystems are inherently nonlinear and spatially extended, environmental changes can also induce pattern-forming instabilities that result in spatial self-organization of life forms and resources. This, in turn, can affect the relationships between these three elements, and make the response of ecosystems to environmental changes far more complex. Responses of this kind can be expected in dryland ecosystems, which show a variety of self-organizing vegetation patterns along the rainfall gradient. This paper describes the progress that has been made in understanding vegetation patterning in dryland ecosystems, and the roles it plays in ecosystem response to environmental variability. The progress has been achieved by modeling pattern-forming feedbacks at small spatial scales and up-scaling their effects to large scales through model studies. This approach sets the basis for integrating pattern formation theory into the study of ecosystem dynamics and addressing ecologically significant questions such as the dynamics of desertification, restoration of degraded landscapes, biodiversity changes along environmental gradients, and shrubland-grassland transitions. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Exploring spatial change and gravity center movement for ecosystem services value using a spatially explicit ecosystem services value index and gravity model.

PubMed

He, Yingbin; Chen, Youqi; Tang, Huajun; Yao, Yanmin; Yang, Peng; Chen, Zhongxin

2011-04-01

Spatially explicit ecosystem services valuation and change is a newly developing area of research in the field of ecology. Using the Beijing region as a study area, the authors have developed a spatially explicit ecosystem services value index and implemented this to quantify and spatially differentiate ecosystem services value at 1-km grid resolution. A gravity model was developed to trace spatial change in the total ecosystem services value of the Beijing study area from a holistic point of view. Study results show that the total value of ecosystem services for the study area decreased by 19.75% during the period 1996-2006 (3,226.2739 US$×10(6) in 1996, 2,589.0321 US$×10(6) in 2006). However, 27.63% of the total area of the Beijing study area increased in ecosystem services value. Spatial differences in ecosystem services values for both 1996 and 2006 are very clear. The center of gravity of total ecosystem services value for the study area moved 32.28 km northwestward over the 10 years due to intensive human intervention taking place in southeast Beijing. The authors suggest that policy-makers should pay greater attention to ecological protection under conditions of rapid socio-economic development and increase the area of green belt in the southeastern part of Beijing.

Early Cretaceous terrestrial ecosystems in East Asia based on food-web and energy-flow models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Matsukawa, M.; Saiki, K.; Ito, M.; Obata, I.; Nichols, D.J.; Lockley, M.G.; Kukihara, R.; Shibata, K.

2006-01-01

In recent years, there has been global interest in the environments and ecosystems around the world. It is helpful to reconstruct past environments and ecosystems to help understand them in the present and the future. The present environments and ecosystems are an evolving continuum with those of the past and the future. This paper demonstrates the contribution of geology and paleontology to such continua. Using fossils, we can make an estimation of past population density as an ecosystem index based on food-web and energy-flow models. Late Mesozoic nonmarine deposits are distributed widely on the eastern Asian continent and contain various kinds of fossils such as fishes, amphibians, reptiles, dinosaurs, mammals, bivalves, gastropods, insects, ostracodes, conchostracans, terrestrial plants, and others. These fossil organisms are useful for late Mesozoic terrestrial ecosystem reconstruction using food-web and energy-flow models. We chose Early Cretaceous fluvio-lacustrine basins in the Choyr area, southeastern Mongolia, and the Tetori area, Japan, for these analyses and as a potential model for reconstruction of other similar basins in East Asia. The food-web models are restored based on taxa that occurred in these basins. They form four or five trophic levels in an energy pyramid consisting of rich primary producers at its base and smaller biotas higher in the food web. This is the general energy pyramid of a typical ecosystem. Concerning the population densities of vertebrate taxa in 1 km2 in these basins, some differences are recognized between Early Cretaceous and the present. For example, Cretaceous estimates suggest 2.3 to 4.8 times as many herbivores and 26.0 to 105.5 times the carnivore population. These differences are useful for the evaluation of past population densities of vertebrate taxa. Such differences may also be caused by the different metabolism of different taxa. Preservation may also be a factor, and we recognize that various problems occur in past ecosystem reconstructions. Counts of small numbers of confirmed species and estimates of maximum numbers of species present in the basin are used for the analysis and estimation of energy flow. This approach applies the methods of modern ecosystem analysis. ?? 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evaluating the Potential of Southampton Carbon Flux Model (SCARF) for Monitoring Terrestrial Gross Primary Productivity Across African Ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chiwara, P.; Dash, J.; Ardö, J.; Ogutu, B. O.; Milton, E. J.; Saunders, M. J.; Nicolini, G.

2016-12-01

Accurate knowledge about the amount and dynamics of terrestrial gross primary productivity is an important component for understanding of ecosystem functioning and processes. Recently a new diagnostic model, Southampton Carbon Flux (SCARF), was developed to predict terrestrial gross primary productivity at regional to global scale based on a chlorophyll index derived from MERIS data. The model aims at mitigating some shortcomings in traditional light-use-efficiency based models by (i) using the fraction of photosynthetic active radiation absorbed only by the photosynthetic components of the canopy (FAPARps) and (ii) using the intrinsic quantum yields of C3 and C4 photosynthesis thereby reducing errors from land cover misclassification. Initial evaluation of the model in northern higher latitude ecosystems shows good agreement with in situ measurements. The current study calibrated and validated the model for a diversity of vegetation types across Africa in order to test its performance over a water limiting environment. The validation was based on GPP measurements from seven eddy flux towers across Africa. Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses were also performed to determine the importance of key biophysical and meteorological input parameters.Overall, modelled GPP values show good agreement with in situ measured GPP at most sites except tropical rainforest site. Mean daily GPP varied significantly across sites depending on the vegetation types and climate; from a minimum of -0.12 gC m2 day-1 for the semi-arid savannah to a maximum of 7.30 gC m2 day-1 for tropical rain forest ecosystems at Ankasa (Ghana). The model results have modest to very strong positive agreement with observed GPP at most sites (R2 values ranging from 0.60 for Skukuza in South Africa) and 0.85 for Mongu in Zambia) except tropical rain forest ecosystem (R2=0.34). Overall, the model has a stronger across-site coefficient of determination (R2=0.78) than MOD17 GPP product (R2=0.68). PAR and VPD are the parameters that propagate much variation in model output at most sites especially in semi-arid and sub-humid ecosystems. The results demonstrate that the SCARF model can improve prediction of GPP across a wide range of African ecosystems..Key words: GPP, climate change, diagnostic model, photosynthetic quantum yield, C3/C4 photosynthesis

Non-Deterministic Modelling of Food-Web Dynamics

PubMed Central

Planque, Benjamin; Lindstrøm, Ulf; Subbey, Sam

2014-01-01

A novel approach to model food-web dynamics, based on a combination of chance (randomness) and necessity (system constraints), was presented by Mullon et al. in 2009. Based on simulations for the Benguela ecosystem, they concluded that observed patterns of ecosystem variability may simply result from basic structural constraints within which the ecosystem functions. To date, and despite the importance of these conclusions, this work has received little attention. The objective of the present paper is to replicate this original model and evaluate the conclusions that were derived from its simulations. For this purpose, we revisit the equations and input parameters that form the structure of the original model and implement a comparable simulation model. We restate the model principles and provide a detailed account of the model structure, equations, and parameters. Our model can reproduce several ecosystem dynamic patterns: pseudo-cycles, variation and volatility, diet, stock-recruitment relationships, and correlations between species biomass series. The original conclusions are supported to a large extent by the current replication of the model. Model parameterisation and computational aspects remain difficult and these need to be investigated further. Hopefully, the present contribution will make this approach available to a larger research community and will promote the use of non-deterministic-network-dynamics models as ‘null models of food-webs’ as originally advocated. PMID:25299245

A gradient of nutrient enrichment reveals nonlinear impacts of fertilization on Arctic plant diversity and ecosystem function.

PubMed

Prager, Case M; Naeem, Shahid; Boelman, Natalie T; Eitel, Jan U H; Greaves, Heather E; Heskel, Mary A; Magney, Troy S; Menge, Duncan N L; Vierling, Lee A; Griffin, Kevin L

2017-04-01

Rapid environmental change at high latitudes is predicted to greatly alter the diversity, structure, and function of plant communities, resulting in changes in the pools and fluxes of nutrients. In Arctic tundra, increased nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) availability accompanying warming is known to impact plant diversity and ecosystem function; however, to date, most studies examining Arctic nutrient enrichment focus on the impact of relatively large (>25x estimated naturally occurring N enrichment) doses of nutrients on plant community composition and net primary productivity. To understand the impacts of Arctic nutrient enrichment, we examined plant community composition and the capacity for ecosystem function (net ecosystem exchange, ecosystem respiration, and gross primary production) across a gradient of experimental N and P addition expected to more closely approximate warming-induced fertilization. In addition, we compared our measured ecosystem CO 2 flux data to a widely used Arctic ecosystem exchange model to investigate the ability to predict the capacity for CO 2 exchange with nutrient addition. We observed declines in abundance-weighted plant diversity at low levels of nutrient enrichment, but species richness and the capacity for ecosystem carbon uptake did not change until the highest level of fertilization. When we compared our measured data to the model, we found that the model explained roughly 30%-50% of the variance in the observed data, depending on the flux variable, and the relationship weakened at high levels of enrichment. Our results suggest that while a relatively small amount of nutrient enrichment impacts plant diversity, only relatively large levels of fertilization-over an order of magnitude or more than warming-induced rates-significantly alter the capacity for tundra CO 2 exchange. Overall, our findings highlight the value of measuring and modeling the impacts of a nutrient enrichment gradient, as warming-related nutrient availability may impact ecosystems differently than single-level fertilization experiments.

From bottles to stream reaches and networks: Consequences of scale in how we interpret the function of freshwaters in the carbon cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hotchkiss, E. R.

2017-12-01

Freshwater biological processes can alter the quantity and quality of organic carbon (OC) inputs from land before they are transported downstream, but the relative role of hydrologic transport and in-stream processing is still not well quantified at the scale of fluvial networks. Despite much research on the role of biology and hydrology in governing the form and fate of C in inland waters, conclusions about the function of freshwater ecosystems in modifying OC still largely depend on where we draw our ecosystem boundaries, i.e., the spatial scale of measurements used to assess OC transformations. Here I review freshwater OC uptake rates derived from bioassay incubations, synoptic modeling, reach-scale experiments, and ecosystem OC spiraling estimates. Median OC uptake velocities from standard bioassay incubations (0.02 m/d) and synoptic modeling (0.04 m/d) are 1-2 orders of magnitude lower than reach-scale experimental DOC additions and ecosystem OC spiraling estimates (2.2 and 0.27 m/d, respectively) in streams and rivers. Together, ecosystem metabolism and OC fluxes can be used to estimate the distance OC travels before being consumed and respired as CO2 through biological processes (i.e., OC spiraling), allowing for a more mechanistic understanding of the role of ecosystem processes and hydrologic fluxes in modifying downstream OC transport. Beyond the reach scale, data from stream network and stream-lake-river modeling simulations show how we may use linked sampling sites within networks to better understand the integrated sources and fate of OC in freshwaters. We currently underestimate the role of upstream processes in contributing to downstream fluxes: moving from single-ecosystem comparisons to linked-ecosystem simulations increases the contribution of in situ OC processing to CO2 emissions from 30% to >40%. Insights from literature reviews, ecosystem process measurements, and model simulations provide a framework for future considerations of integrated C transport, transformations, and fate when scaling patterns and processes in inland waters.

Modelling the pelagic nitrogen cycle and vertical particle flux in the Norwegian sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haupt, Olaf J.; Wolf, Uli; v. Bodungen, Bodo

1999-02-01

A 1D Eulerian ecosystem model (BIological Ocean Model) for the Norwegian Sea was developed to investigate the dynamics of pelagic ecosystems. The BIOM combines six biochemical compartments and simulates the annual nitrogen cycle with specific focus on production, modification and sedimentation of particles in the water column. The external forcing and physical framework is based on a simulated annual cycle of global radiation and an annual mixed-layer cycle derived from field data. The vertical resolution of the model is given by an exponential grid with 200 depth layers, allowing specific parameterization of various sinking velocities, breakdown of particles and the remineralization processes. The aim of the numerical experiments is the simulation of ecosystem dynamics considering the specific biogeochemical properties of the Norwegian Sea, for example the life cycle of the dominant copepod Calanus finmarchicus. The results of the simulations were validated with field data. Model results are in good agreement with field data for the lower trophic levels of the food web. With increasing complexity of the organisms the differences increase between simulated processes and field data. Results of the numerical simulations suggest that BIOM is well adapted to investigate a physically controlled ecosystem. The simulation of grazing controlled pelagic ecosystems, like the Norwegian Sea, requires adaptations of parameterization to the specific ecosystem features. By using seasonally adaptation of the most sensible processes like utilization of light by phytoplankton and grazing by zooplankton results were greatly improved.

The sensitivity of ecosystem service models to choices of input data and spatial resolution

Treesearch

Kenneth J. Bagstad; Erika Cohen; Zachary H. Ancona; Steven. G. McNulty; Ge   Sun

2018-01-01

Although ecosystem service (ES) modeling has progressed rapidly in the last 10–15 years, comparative studies on data and model selection effects have become more common only recently. Such studies have drawn mixed conclusions about whether different data and model choices yield divergent results. In this study, we compared the results of different models to address...

[Simulating of carbon fluxes in bamboo forest ecosystem using BEPS model based on the LAI assimilated with Dual Ensemble Kalman Filter].

PubMed

Li, Xue Jian; Mao, Fang Jie; Du, Hua Qiang; Zhou, Guo Mo; Xu, Xiao Jun; Li, Ping Heng; Liu, Yu Li; Cui, Lu

2016-12-01

LAI is one of the most important observation data in the research of carbon cycle of forest ecosystem, and it is also an important parameter to drive process-based ecosystem model. The Moso bamboo forest (MBF) and Lei bamboo forest (LBF) were selected as the study targets. Firstly, the MODIS LAI time series data during 2014-2015 was assimilated with Dual Ensemble Kalman Filter method. Secondly, the high quality assimilated MBF LAI and LBF LAI were used as input dataset to drive BEPS model for simulating the gross primary productivity (GPP), net ecosystem exchange (NEE) and total ecosystem respiration (TER) of the two types of bamboo forest ecosystem, respectively. The modeled carbon fluxes were evaluated by the observed carbon fluxes data, and the effects of different quality LAI inputs on carbon cycle simulation were also studied. The LAI assimilated using Dual Ensemble Kalman Filter of MBF and LBF were significantly correlated with the observed LAI, with high R 2 of 0.81 and 0.91 respectively, and lower RMSE and absolute bias, which represented the great improvement of the accuracy of MODIS LAI products. With the driving of assimilated LAI, the modeled GPP, NEE, and TER were also highly correlated with the flux observation data, with the R 2 of 0.66, 0.47, and 0.64 for MBF, respectively, and 0.66, 0.45, and 0.73 for LBF, respectively. The accuracy of carbon fluxes modeled with assimilated LAI was higher than that acquired by the locally adjusted cubic-spline capping method, in which, the accuracy of mo-deled NEE for MBF and LBF increased by 11.2% and 11.8% at the most degrees, respectively.

Artificial neural networks and ecological communities (Book Review: Modelling community structure in freshwater ecosystems)

USGS Publications Warehouse

DeAngelis, Donald L.

2005-01-01

Review info: Modeling community structure in freshwater ecosystems. Edited by Sovan Lek, Michele Scardi, Piet F.M. Verdonschot, Jean-Pierre Descy, and Young-Seuk Park, 2005. ISBN: 3-540-23940-5, 518 pp.

An Ecohydrological Approach to the Resiliency and Stability of Ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peña Alzate, S.; Canon Barriga, J. E.

2013-12-01

We introduce a simplified ecohydrological model to quantitatively assess the resiliency and stability of ecosystems. The proposed model couples a hydrological soil moisture balance with a set of spatiotemporal dynamics of systems and agent-based algorithms to represent the interactions among several plant populations in a gridded area under different water, soil and temperature constraints. The model also allows disturbances, representing mostly the effects of deforestation practices. The simulated ecosystem, composed by a set of plant populations, includes allometric rules (i.e., power laws for generational and reproductive times, linear approximations for water and temperature gains, losses and optimal values and a set of intra and interspecific interaction rules based on high, optimal and low competition responses among the populations). Disturbances are determined by a clearance of populations in a defined area within the model's domain. The effects of climate variability can be also incorporated through precipitation and temperature time series that exhibit trends and heteroskedasticity. Resiliency and stability are calculated with modified indices that are used in hydrology, in this case to determine the ability of the ecosystem to recover from a disturbance. The model represents different types of plant phenotypes showing exponential growth in the first steps of the simulations. The indices, evaluated on each population and over the structure of the entire ecosystem, show how different populations respond differently to disturbances, following behaviors similar to those expected in nature, like high reproduction rates on gregarious plants with short generation times, and low densities in plants with high generations times. The selection of plant populations was mainly focused on the concept of biodiversity with emphasis on tropical regions. The model can represent the spatial and temporal succession of the ecosystem after being disturbed. The model also shows the differences between a disturbed and undisturbed ecosystem in a temporal scale, and how the differences in the phenotypical characteristics of plant populations can be advantageous or disadvantageous when they are disturbed. This ecohydrological model is intended to be used as an aid for making decisions about restoration and conservation practices, and also to help understanding resilience and stability of ecosystems, especially in tropical forests under climate change scenarios. Acknowledgements: authors thank the financial support of COLCIENCIAS (program Jovenes Investigadores e innovadores 2012), GAIA group and Universidad de Antioquia through its Sustainability Program 2011-2012.

Back-to-the-future: a fresh policy initiative for fisheries and a restoration ecology for ocean ecosystems

PubMed Central

Pitcher, Tony J.

2005-01-01

‘Back-to-the-future’ (BTF) is an integrative approach to a restoration ecology of the oceans that attempts to solve the fisheries crisis. To this end, it harnesses the latest understanding of ecosystem processes, developments in whole ecosystem simulation modelling, and insight into the human dimension of fisheries management. BTF includes new methods for describing past ecosystems, designing fisheries that meet criteria for sustainability and responsibility, and evaluating the costs and benefits of fisheries in restored ecosystems. Evaluation of alternative policy choices, involving trade-offs between conservation and economic values, employs a range of economic, social and ecological measures. Automated searches maximize values of objective functions, and the methodology includes analyses of model parameter uncertainty. Participatory workshops attempt to maximize compliance by fostering a sense of ownership among all stakeholders. Some challenges that have still to be met include improving methods for quantitatively describing the past, reducing uncertainty in ecosystem simulation techniques and in making policy choices robust against climate change. Critical issues include whether past ecosystems make viable policy goals, and whether desirable goals may be reached from today’s ecosystem. Examples from case studies in British Columbia, Newfoundland and elsewhere are presented. PMID:15713591

The 1990 forest ecosystem dynamics multisensor aircraft campaign

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Williams, Darrel L.; Ranson, K. Jon

1991-01-01

The overall objective of the Forest Ecosystem Dynamics (FED) research activity is to develop a better understanding of the dynamics of forest ecosystem evolution over a variety of temporal and spatial scales. Primary emphasis is being placed on assessing the ecosystem dynamics associated with the transition zone between northern hardwood forests in eastern North America and the predominantly coniferous forests of the more northerly boreal biome. The approach is to combine ground-based, airborne, and satellite observations with an integrated forest pattern and process model which is being developed to link together existing models of forest growth and development, soil processes, and radiative transfer.

Using the concept of Shannon's Entropy to evaluate impacts of climate extremes on interannual variability in ecosystem CO2 fluxes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, S.; Baldocchi, D. D.

2016-12-01

Although interannual variability in ecosystem CO2 fluxes have been observed in the field and described with empirical or process-based models, we still lack tools for evaluating and comparing impacts of climate extremes or unusual biogeophysical events on the variability. We examined a 15-year-long dataset of net ecosystem exchange of CO2 (NEE) measured at a woody savanna and a grassland site in California from 2000 to 2015. We proposed a conceptual framework to quantify season contributions by computing relatively contributions of each season to annual anomalies of gross ecosystem productivity (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (Reco). According to the framework, we calculated the Shannon's Entropy for each year. The values of Shannon Entropy were higher in the year that variations in GPP and Reco were beyond predictions of empirical models established for the study site. We specifically examined the outliers compared to model predictions and concluded that the outliers were related to occurrences of unexpected biogeophysical events in those years. This study offers a new application of Shannon's Entropy in understanding complicated biophysical and ecological processes involved in ecosystem carbon cycling.

Integrated modelling of ecosystem services and energy systems research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Agarwala, Matthew; Lovett, Andrew; Bateman, Ian; Day, Brett; Agnolucci, Paolo; Ziv, Guy

2016-04-01

The UK Government is formally committed to reducing carbon emissions and protecting and improving natural capital and the environment. However, actually delivering on these objectives requires an integrated approach to addressing two parallel challenges: de-carbonising future energy system pathways; and safeguarding natural capital to ensure the continued flow of ecosystem services. Although both emphasise benefiting from natural resources, efforts to connect natural capital and energy systems research have been limited, meaning opportunities to improve management of natural resources and meet society's energy needs could be missed. The ecosystem services paradigm provides a consistent conceptual framework that applies in multiple disciplines across the natural and economic sciences, and facilitates collaboration between them. At the forefront of the field, integrated ecosystem service - economy models have guided public- and private-sector decision making at all levels. Models vary in sophistication from simple spreadsheet tools to complex software packages integrating biophysical, GIS and economic models and draw upon many fields, including ecology, hydrology, geography, systems theory, economics and the social sciences. They also differ in their ability to value changes in natural capital and ecosystem services at various spatial and temporal scales. Despite these differences, current models share a common feature: their treatment of energy systems is superficial at best. In contrast, energy systems research has no widely adopted, unifying conceptual framework that organises thinking about key system components and interactions. Instead, the literature is organised around modelling approaches, including life cycle analyses, econometric investigations, linear programming and computable general equilibrium models. However, some consistencies do emerge. First, often contain a linear set of steps, from exploration to resource supply, fuel processing, conversion/generation, transmission, distribution, and finally, end energy use. Although each step clearly impacts upon natural capital, links to the natural environment are rarely identified or quantified within energy research. In short, the respective conceptual frameworks guiding ecosystem service and energy research are not well integrated. Major knowledge and research gaps appear at the system boundaries: while energy models may mention flows of residuals, exploring where exactly these flows enter the environment, and how they impact ecosystems and natural capital is often considered to be 'outside the system boundary'. While integrated modelling represents the frontier of ecosystem service research, current efforts largely ignore the future energy pathways set out by energy systems models and government carbon targets. This disconnect means that policy-oriented research on how best to (i) maintain natural capital and (ii) meet specific climate targets may be poorly aligned, or worse, offer conflicting advice. We present a re-imagined version of the ecosystem services conceptual framework, in which emphasis is placed on interactions between energy systems and the natural environment. Using the UK as a case study, we employ a recent integrated environmental-economic ecosystem service model, TIM, developed by Bateman et al (2014) and energy pathways developed by the UK Energy Research Centre and the UK Government Committee on Climate Change to illustrate how the new conceptual framework might apply in real world applications.

Studies on Interpretive Structural Model for Forest Ecosystem Management Decision-Making

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Suqing; Gao, Xiumei; Zen, Qunying; Zhou, Yuanman; Huang, Yuequn; Han, Weidong; Li, Linfeng; Li, Jiping; Pu, Yingshan

Characterized by their openness, complexity and large scale, forest ecosystems interweave themselves with social system, economic system and other natural ecosystems, thus complicating both their researches and management decision-making. According to the theories of sustainable development, hierarchy-competence levels, cybernetics and feedback, 25 factors have been chosen from human society, economy and nature that affect forest ecosystem management so that they are systematically analyzed via developing an interpretive structural model (ISM) to reveal their relationships and positions in the forest ecosystem management. The ISM consists of 7 layers with the 3 objectives for ecosystem management being the top layer (the seventh layer). The ratio between agricultural production value and industrial production value as the bases of management decision-making in forest ecosystems becomes the first layer at the bottom because it has great impacts on the values of society and the development trends of forestry, while the factors of climatic environments, intensive management extent, management measures, input-output ratio as well as landscape and productivity are arranged from the second to sixth layers respectively.

Modeling carbon and nitrogen biogeochemistry in forest ecosystems

Treesearch

Changsheng Li; Carl Trettin; Ge Sun; Steve McNulty; Klaus Butterbach-Bahl

2005-01-01

A forest biogeochemical model, Forest-DNDC, was developed to quantify carbon sequestration in and trace gas emissions from forest ecosystems. Forest-DNDC was constructed by integrating two existing moels, PnET and DNDC, with several new features including nitrification, forest litter layer, soil freezing and thawing etc, PnET is a forest physiological model predicting...

Integration of Process Models and Remote Sensing for Estimating Productivity, Soil Moisture, and Energy Fluxes in a Tallgrass Prairie Ecosystem

EPA Science Inventory

We describe a research program aimed at integrating remotely sensed data with an ecosystem model (VELMA) and a soil-vegetation-atmosphere transfer (SVAT) model (SEBS) for generating spatially explicit, regional scale estimates of productivity (biomass) and energy\\mass exchanges i...

Maximum entropy models of ecosystem functioning

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bertram, Jason, E-mail: jason.bertram@anu.edu.au

2014-12-05

Using organism-level traits to deduce community-level relationships is a fundamental problem in theoretical ecology. This problem parallels the physical one of using particle properties to deduce macroscopic thermodynamic laws, which was successfully achieved with the development of statistical physics. Drawing on this parallel, theoretical ecologists from Lotka onwards have attempted to construct statistical mechanistic theories of ecosystem functioning. Jaynes’ broader interpretation of statistical mechanics, which hinges on the entropy maximisation algorithm (MaxEnt), is of central importance here because the classical foundations of statistical physics do not have clear ecological analogues (e.g. phase space, dynamical invariants). However, models based on themore » information theoretic interpretation of MaxEnt are difficult to interpret ecologically. Here I give a broad discussion of statistical mechanical models of ecosystem functioning and the application of MaxEnt in these models. Emphasising the sample frequency interpretation of MaxEnt, I show that MaxEnt can be used to construct models of ecosystem functioning which are statistical mechanical in the traditional sense using a savanna plant ecology model as an example.« less

Modeling ecosystem service tradeoffs for alternative land use and climate scenarios

EPA Science Inventory

Scientists, policymakers, community planners and others have discussed ecosystem services for decades, however, society is still in the early stages of developing methodologies to quantify and value the goods and services that ecosystems provide. Essential to this goal are highly...

A Biological Condition Gradient Model for Historical Assessment of Estuarine Habitat Structure

EPA Science Inventory

Coastal ecosystems are affected by ever increasing natural and human pressures. Because the physical, chemical, and biological characteristics unique to each ecosystem control the ways that biological resources respond to ecosystem stressors, we recommend a flexible and adaptable...

Modeling the role and impact of alien species and fisheries on the Israeli marine continental shelf ecosystem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Corrales, X.; Ofir, E.; Coll, M.; Goren, M.; Edelist, D.; Heymans, J. J.; Gal, G.

2017-06-01

The ecosystems of the Israeli Mediterranean coast have undergone significant changes in recent decades mainly due to species invasions and fishing. In order to characterize the structure and functioning of the marine continental shelf of the Israeli Mediterranean coast and assess temporal changes, we developed a food web model representing two time periods: 1990-1994 and 2008-2012. The 1990-1994 and 2008-2012 food web models were composed of 39 and 41 functional groups, respectively. Functional groups ranged from primary producers to top predators, and included six and eight alien functional groups, respectively, encompassing several crustacean and fish species. Input data included local surveys and fishery statistics, published data on stomach content analyses, and the application of empirical equations to estimate consumption and production rates. Results of the competitive interactions between alien and native species and changes in trophic flows between food web components highlight the increasing impact of alien species over time. Fishing had noticeable impacts in both time periods and played an important role in the ecosystem. Despite different productivity rates and other environmental differences, the Israeli marine ecosystem shared common structural and functional traits with other Mediterranean marine ecosystems. This is the first attempt to study the ecosystem of the Levant region using mass-balance models and to integrate such a large amount of alien species into food web analyses.

Integrated Modeling for Watershed Ecosystem Services Assessment and Forecasting

EPA Science Inventory

Regional scale watershed management decisions must be informed by the science-based relationship between anthropogenic activities on the landscape and the change in ecosystem structure, function, and services that occur as a result. We applied process-based models that represent...

Nutrient Dynamics In Flooded Wetlands. I: Model Development

EPA Science Inventory

Wetlands are rich ecosystems recognized for ameliorating floods, improving water quality and providing other ecosystem benefits. In this part of a two-paper sequel, we present a relatively detailed process-based model for nitrogen and phosphorus retention, cycling and removal in...

Bioenergetics in ecosystems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Madenjian, Charles P.; Farrell, Anthony P.

2011-01-01

A bioenergetics model for a fish can be defined as a quantitative description of the fish’s energy budget. Bioenergetics modeling can be applied to a fish population in a lake, river, or ocean to estimate the annual consumption of food by the fish population; such applications have proved to be useful in managing fisheries. In addition, bioenergetics models have been used to better understand fish growth and consumption in ecosystems, to determine the importance of the role of fish in cycling nutrients within ecosystems, and to identify the important factors regulating contaminant accumulation in fish from lakes, rivers, and oceans.

Validating a method for transferring social values of ecosystem services between public lands in the Rocky Mountain region

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sherrouse, Benson C.; Semmens, Darius J.

2014-01-01

With growing pressures on ecosystem services, social values attributed to them are increasingly important to land management decisions. Social values, defined here as perceived values the public ascribes to ecosystem services, particularly cultural services, are generally not accounted for through economic markets or considered alongside economic and ecological values in ecosystem service assessments. Social-values data can be elicited through public value and preference surveys; however, limitations prevent them from being regularly collected. These limitations led to our three study objectives: (1) demonstrate an approach for applying benefit transfer, a nonmarket-valuation method, to spatially explicit social values; (2) validate the approach; and (3) identify potential improvements. We applied Social Values for Ecosystem Services (SolVES) to survey data for three national forests in Colorado and Wyoming. Social-value maps and models were generated, describing relationships between the maps and various combinations of environmental variables. Models from each forest were used to estimate social-value maps for the other forests via benefit transfer. Model performance was evaluated relative to the locally derived models. Performance varied with the number and type of environmental variables used, as well as differences in the forests' physical and social contexts. Enhanced metadata and better social-context matching could improve model transferability.

[Responses of Pinus tabulaeformis forest ecosystem in North China to climate change and elevated CO2: a simulation based on BIOME-BGC model and tree-ring data].

PubMed

He, Jun-Jie; Peng, Xing-Yuan; Chen, Zhen-Ju; Cui, Ming-Xing; Zhang, Xian-Liang; Zhou, Chang-Hong

2012-07-01

Based on BIOME-BGC model and tree-ring data, a modeling study was conducted to estimate the dynamic changes of the net primary productivity (NPP) of Pinus tabulaeformis forest ecosystem in North China in 1952-2008, and explore the responses of the radial growth and NPP to regional climate warming as well as the dynamics of the NPP in the future climate change scenarios. The simulation results indicated the annual NPP of the P. tabulaeformis ecosystem in 1952-2008 fluctuated from 244.12 to 645.31 g C x m(-2) x a(-1), with a mean value of 418.6 g C x m(-2) x a(-1) The mean air temperature in May-June and the precipitation from previous August to current July were the main factors limiting the radial growth of P. tabulaeformis and the NPP of P. tabulaeformis ecosystem. In the study period, both the radial growth and the NPP presented a decreasing trend due to the regional warming and drying climate condition. In the future climate scenarios, the NPP would have positive responses to the increase of air temperature, precipitation, and their combination. The elevated CO2 would benefit the increase of the NPP, and the increment would be about 16.1% due to the CO2 fertilization. At both ecosystem and regional scales, the tree-ring data would be an ideal proxy to predict the ecosystem dynamic change, and could be used to validate and calibrate the process-based ecosystem models including BIOME-BGC.

Land use changes and socio-economic development strongly deteriorate river ecosystem health in one of the largest basins in China.

PubMed

Cheng, Xian; Chen, Liding; Sun, Ranhao; Kong, Peiru

2018-03-01

It is important to assess river ecosystem health in large-scale basins when considering the complex influence of anthropogenic activities on these ecosystems. This study investigated the river ecosystem health in the Haihe River Basin (HRB) by sampling 148 river sites during the pre- and post-rainy seasons in 2013. A model was established to assess the river ecosystem health based on water physicochemical, nutrient, and macroinvertebrate indices, and the health level was divided into "very poor," "poor," "fair," "good," and "excellent" according to the health score calculated from the assessment model. The assessment results demonstrated that the river ecosystem health of the HRB was "poor" overall, and no catchments were labeled "excellent." The percentages of catchments deemed to have "very poor," "poor," "fair," or "good" river ecosystem health were 12.88%, 40.91%, 40.15%, and 6.06%, respectively. From the pre- to the post-rainy season, the macroinvertebrate health levels improved from "poor" to "fair." The results of a redundancy analysis (RDA), path analysis of the structural equation model (SEM), and X-Y plots indicated that the land use types of forest land and grassland had positive relationships with river ecosystem health, whereas arable land, urban land, gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, and population density had negative relationships with river ecosystem health. The variance partitioning (VP) results showed that anthropogenic activities (including land use and socio-economy) together explained 30.9% of the variations in river ecosystem health in the pre-rainy season, and this value increased to 35.9% in the post-rainy season. Land use intensity was the first driver of river ecosystem health, and socio-economic activities was the second driver. Land use variables explained 20.5% and 25.7% of the variations in river ecosystem health in the pre- and post-rainy season samples, respectively, and socio-economic variables explained 12.3% and 17.2% of the variations, respectively. The SEM results revealed that urban land had the strongest impact on water quality health and that forest land had the strongest impact on macroinvertebrate health. This study has implications for the selection of appropriate indicators to assess river ecosystem health and generated data to examine the effects of anthropogenic activities on river ecosystem health in a fast-growing region. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Using a food-web model to assess the trophic structure and energy flows in Daya Bay, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Zuozhi; Xu, Shannan; Qiu, Yongsong

2015-12-01

Daya Bay, is one of the largest and most important semi-closed bays along the southern coast of China. Due to the favorable geomorphological and climatic conditions, this bay has become an important conservation zone of aquatic germplasm resources in South China Sea. To characterize the trophic structure, ecosystem properties and keystone species, a food-web model for Daya Bay has been developed by the means of a mass-balance approach using the Ecopath with Ecosim software. The mean trophic transfer efficiency for the entire ecosystem as a whole is 10.9% while the trophic level II is 5.1%. The primary- and secondary-producers, including phytoplankton, zooplankton and micro-zoobenthos demonstrated the important overall impacts on the rest of the groups based on mixed trophic impact (MIT) analysis and are classified as the keystone groups. The analysis of ecosystem attributes indicated that ecosystem of Daya Bay can be categorized as an immature one and/or is in the degraded stage. A comparison of this model with other coastal ecosystems, including Kuosheng Bay, Tongoy Bay, Beibu Gulf and Cadiz Gulf, underpinned that the ecosystem of Daye Bay is an obviously stressed system and is more vulnerable to the external disturbance. In general, our study indicates that a holistic approach is needed to minimize the impacts of anthropogenic activities to ensure the sustainability of the ecosystem in the future.

Improving Future Ecosystem Benefits through Earth Observations: the H2020 Project ECOPOTENTIAL

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Provenzale, Antonello; Beierkuhnlein, Carl; Ziv, Guy

2016-04-01

Terrestrial and marine ecosystems provide essential goods and services to human societies. In the last decades, however, anthropogenic pressures caused serious threats to ecosystem integrity, functions and processes, potentially leading to the loss of essential ecosystem services. ECOPOTENTIAL is a large European-funded H2020 project which focuses its activities on a targeted set of internationally recognised protected areas in Europe, European Territories and beyond, blending Earth Observations from remote sensing and field measurements, data analysis and modelling of current and future ecosystem conditions and services. The definition of future scenarios is based on climate and land-use change projections, addressing the issue of uncertainties and uncertainty propagation across the modelling chain. The ECOPOTENTIAL project addresses cross-scale geosphere-biosphere interactions and landscape-ecosystem dynamics at regional to continental scales, using geostatistical methods and the emerging approaches in Macrosystem Ecology and Earth Critical Zone studies, addressing long-term and large-scale environmental and ecological challenges. The project started its activities in 2015, by defining a set of storylines which allow to tackle some of the most crucial issues in the assessment of present conditions and the estimate of the future state of selected ecosystem services. In this contribution, we focus on some of the main storylines of the project and discuss the general approach, focusing on the interplay of data and models and on the estimate of projection uncertainties.

Modelling marine community responses to climate-driven species redistribution to guide monitoring and adaptive ecosystem-based management.

PubMed

Marzloff, Martin Pierre; Melbourne-Thomas, Jessica; Hamon, Katell G; Hoshino, Eriko; Jennings, Sarah; van Putten, Ingrid E; Pecl, Gretta T

2016-07-01

As a consequence of global climate-driven changes, marine ecosystems are experiencing polewards redistributions of species - or range shifts - across taxa and throughout latitudes worldwide. Research on these range shifts largely focuses on understanding and predicting changes in the distribution of individual species. The ecological effects of marine range shifts on ecosystem structure and functioning, as well as human coastal communities, can be large, yet remain difficult to anticipate and manage. Here, we use qualitative modelling of system feedback to understand the cumulative impacts of multiple species shifts in south-eastern Australia, a global hotspot for ocean warming. We identify range-shifting species that can induce trophic cascades and affect ecosystem dynamics and productivity, and evaluate the potential effectiveness of alternative management interventions to mitigate these impacts. Our results suggest that the negative ecological impacts of multiple simultaneous range shifts generally add up. Thus, implementing whole-of-ecosystem management strategies and regular monitoring of range-shifting species of ecological concern are necessary to effectively intervene against undesirable consequences of marine range shifts at the regional scale. Our study illustrates how modelling system feedback with only limited qualitative information about ecosystem structure and range-shifting species can predict ecological consequences of multiple co-occurring range shifts, guide ecosystem-based adaptation to climate change and help prioritise future research and monitoring. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Challenges in integrative approaches to modelling the marine ecosystems of the North Atlantic: Physics to fish and coasts to ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holt, Jason; Icarus Allen, J.; Anderson, Thomas R.; Brewin, Robert; Butenschön, Momme; Harle, James; Huse, Geir; Lehodey, Patrick; Lindemann, Christian; Memery, Laurent; Salihoglu, Baris; Senina, Inna; Yool, Andrew

2014-12-01

It has long been recognised that there are strong interactions and feedbacks between climate, upper ocean biogeochemistry and marine food webs, and also that food web structure and phytoplankton community distribution are important determinants of variability in carbon production and export from the euphotic zone. Numerical models provide a vital tool to explore these interactions, given their capability to investigate multiple connected components of the system and the sensitivity to multiple drivers, including potential future conditions. A major driver for ecosystem model development is the demand for quantitative tools to support ecosystem-based management initiatives. The purpose of this paper is to review approaches to the modelling of marine ecosystems with a focus on the North Atlantic Ocean and its adjacent shelf seas, and to highlight the challenges they face and suggest ways forward. We consider the state of the art in simulating oceans and shelf sea physics, planktonic and higher trophic level ecosystems, and look towards building an integrative approach with these existing tools. We note how the different approaches have evolved historically and that many of the previous obstacles to harmonisation may no longer be present. We illustrate this with examples from the on-going and planned modelling effort in the Integrative Modelling Work Package of the EURO-BASIN programme.

An integrated approach to modeling changes in land use, land cover, and disturbance and their impact on ecosystem carbon dynamics: a case study in the Sierra Nevada Mountains of California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Liu, Jinxun; Daniel, Colin; Frid, Leonardo; Zhu, Zhiliang

2015-01-01

Increased land-use intensity (e.g. clearing of forests for cultivation, urbanization), often results in the loss of ecosystem carbon storage, while changes in productivity resulting from climate change may either help offset or exacerbate losses. However, there are large uncertainties in how land and climate systems will evolve and interact to shape future ecosystem carbon dynamics. To address this we developed the Land Use and Carbon Scenario Simulator (LUCAS) to track changes in land use, land cover, land management, and disturbance, and their impact on ecosystem carbon storage and flux within a scenario-based framework. We have combined a state-and-transition simulation model (STSM) of land change with a stock and flow model of carbon dynamics. Land-change projections downscaled from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) were used to drive changes within the STSM, while the Integrated Biosphere Simulator (IBIS) ecosystem model was used to derive input parameters for the carbon stock and flow model. The model was applied to the Sierra Nevada Mountains ecoregion in California, USA, a region prone to large wildfires and a forestry sector projected to intensify over the next century. Three scenario simulations were conducted, including a calibration scenario, a climate-change scenario, and an integrated climate- and land-change scenario. Based on results from the calibration scenario, the LUCAS age-structured carbon accounting model was able to accurately reproduce results obtained from the process-based biogeochemical model. Under the climate-only scenario, the ecoregion was projected to be a reliable net sink of carbon, however, when land use and disturbance were introduced, the ecoregion switched to become a net source. This research demonstrates how an integrated approach to carbon accounting can be used to evaluate various drivers of ecosystem carbon change in a robust, yet transparent modeling environment.

Gross primary production dynamics assessment of a mediterranean holm oak forest by remote sensing time series analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cicuéndez, Víctor; Huesca, Margarita; Rodriguez-Rastrero, Manuel; Litago, Javier; Recuero, Laura; Merino de Miguel, Silvia; Palacios Orueta, Alicia

2014-05-01

Agroforestry ecosystems have a significant social, economic and environmental impact on the development of many regions of the world. In the Iberian Peninsula the agroforestry oak forest called "Dehesa" or "Montado" is considered as the extreme case of transformation of a Mediterranean forest by the management of human to provide a wide range of natural resources. The high variability of the Mediterranean climate and the different extensive management practices which human realized on the Dehesa result in a high spatial and temporal dynamics of the ecosystem. This leads to a complex pattern in CO2 exchange between the atmosphere and the ecosystem, i.e. in ecosystem's production. Thus, it is essential to assess Dehesa's carbon cycle to reach maximum economic benefits ensuring environmental sustainability. In this sense, the availability of high frequency Remote Sensing (RS) time series allows the assessment of ecosystem evolution at different temporal and spatial scales. Extensive research has been conducted to estimate production from RS data in different ecosystems. However, there are few studies on the Dehesa type ecosystems, probably due to their complexity in terms of spatial arrangement and temporal dynamics. In this study our overall objective is to assess the Gross Primary Production (GPP) dynamics of a Dehesa ecosystem situated in Central Spain by analyzing time series (2004-2008) of two models: (1) GPP provided by Remote Sensing Images of sensor MODIS (MOD17A2 product) and (2) GPP estimated by the implementation of a Site Specific Light Use Efficiency model based as MODIS model on Monteith equation (1972), but taking into account local ecological and meteorological parameters. Both models have been compared with the Production provided by an Eddy Covariance (EC) flux Tower that is located in our study area. In addition, dynamic relationships between models of GPP with Precipitation and Soil Water Content have been investigated by means of cross-correlations and Granger causality tests. Results have indicated that both models of GPP have shown a typical dynamic of the Dehesa in a Mediterranean climate in which there are primarily two layers, the arboreal and the herbaceous strata. However, MODIS underestimates the production of the Dehesa while our Site specific model has given more similar values and dynamics to those from the EC tower. Additionally, the analysis of the dynamic relationships has corroborated the strong dynamic link between GPP and available water for plant growth. In conclusion, we have managed to avoid the main sources of underestimation that has MODIS model with the implementation of a Site specific model. Thus, it seems that the different ecological and meteorological parameters used in MODIS model are the principally responsible for this underestimation. Finally, the Granger causality tests indicate that the prediction of GPP can improve if Precipitation or Soil Water is included in the models. References Monteith, J.L., 1972. Solar Radiation and Productivity in Tropical Ecosystems. J. Appl. Ecol. 9, 747-766.

Carbon cycling in extratropical terrestrial ecosystems of the Northern Hemisphere during the 20th century: a modeling analysis of the influences of soil thermal dynamics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zhuang, Q.; McGuire, A.D.; Melillo, J.M.; Clein, Joy S.; Dargaville, R.J.; Kicklighter, D.W.; Myneni, Ranga B.; Dong, J.; Romanovsky, V.E.; Harden, J.; Hobbie, J.E.

2003-01-01

There is substantial evidence that soil thermal dynamics are changing in terrestrial ecosystems of the Northern Hemisphere and that these dynamics have implications for the exchange of carbon between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere. To date, large-scale biogeochemical models have been slow to incorporate the effects of soil thermal dynamics on processes that affect carbon exchange with the atmosphere. In this study we incorporated a soil thermal module (STM), appropriate to both permafrost and non-permafrost soils, into a large-scale ecosystem model, version 5.0 of the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM). We then compared observed regional and seasonal patterns of atmospheric CO2 to simulations of carbon dynamics for terrestrial ecosystems north of 30°N between TEM 5.0 and an earlier version of TEM (version 4.2) that lacked a STM. The timing of the draw-down of atmospheric CO2 at the start of the growing season and the degree of draw-down during the growing season were substantially improved by the consideration of soil thermal dynamics. Both versions of TEM indicate that climate variability and change promoted the loss of carbon from temperate ecosystems during the first half of the 20th century, and promoted carbon storage during the second half of the century. The results of the simulations by TEM suggest that land-use change in temperate latitudes (30–60°N) plays a stronger role than climate change in driving trends for increased uptake of carbon in extratropical terrestrial ecosystems (30–90°N) during recent decades. In the 1980s the TEM 5.0 simulation estimated that extratropical terrestrial ecosystems stored 0.55 Pg C yr−1, with 0.24 Pg C yr−1 in North America and 0.31 Pg C yr−1 in northern Eurasia. From 1990 through 1995 the model simulated that these ecosystems stored 0.90 Pg C yr−1, with 0.27 Pg C yr−1 stored in North America and 0.63 Pg C yr−1 stored in northern Eurasia. Thus, in comparison to the 1980s, simulated net carbon storage in the 1990s was enhanced by an additional 0.35 Pg C yr−1 in extratropical terrestrial ecosystems, with most of the additional storage in northern Eurasia. The carbon storage simulated by TEM 5.0 in the 1980s and 1990s was lower than estimates based on other methodologies, including estimates by atmospheric inversion models and remote sensing and inventory analyses. This suggests that other issues besides the role of soil thermal dynamics may be responsible, in part, for the temporal and spatial dynamics of carbon storage of extratropical terrestrial ecosystems. In conclusion, the consideration of soil thermal dynamics and terrestrial cryospheric processes in modeling the global carbon cycle has helped to reduce biases in the simulation of the seasonality of carbon dynamics of extratropical terrestrial ecosystems. This progress should lead to an enhanced ability to clarify the role of other issues that influence carbon dynamics in terrestrial regions that experience seasonal freezing and thawing of soil.

Building a better foundation: improving root-trait measurements to understand and model plant and ecosystem processes

DOE PAGES

McCormack, M. Luke; Guo, Dali; Iversen, Colleen M.; ...

2017-03-13

Trait-based approaches provide a useful framework to investigate plant strategies for resource acquisition, growth, and competition, as well as plant impacts on ecosystem processes. Despite significant progress capturing trait variation within and among stems and leaves, identification of trait syndromes within fine-root systems and between fine roots and other plant organs is limited. Here we discuss three underappreciated areas where focused measurements of fine-root traits can make significant contributions to ecosystem science. These include assessment of spatiotemporal variation in fine-root traits, integration of mycorrhizal fungi into fine-root-trait frameworks, and the need for improved scaling of traits measured on individual rootsmore » to ecosystem-level processes. Progress in each of these areas is providing opportunities to revisit how below-ground processes are represented in terrestrial biosphere models. Targeted measurements of fine-root traits with clear linkages to ecosystem processes and plant responses to environmental change are strongly needed to reduce empirical and model uncertainties. Further identifying how and when suites of root and whole-plant traits are coordinated or decoupled will ultimately provide a powerful tool for modeling plant form and function at local and global scales.« less

Building a better foundation: improving root-trait measurements to understand and model plant and ecosystem processes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

McCormack, M. Luke; Guo, Dali; Iversen, Colleen M.

Trait-based approaches provide a useful framework to investigate plant strategies for resource acquisition, growth, and competition, as well as plant impacts on ecosystem processes. Despite significant progress capturing trait variation within and among stems and leaves, identification of trait syndromes within fine-root systems and between fine roots and other plant organs is limited. Here we discuss three underappreciated areas where focused measurements of fine-root traits can make significant contributions to ecosystem science. These include assessment of spatiotemporal variation in fine-root traits, integration of mycorrhizal fungi into fine-root-trait frameworks, and the need for improved scaling of traits measured on individual rootsmore » to ecosystem-level processes. Progress in each of these areas is providing opportunities to revisit how below-ground processes are represented in terrestrial biosphere models. Targeted measurements of fine-root traits with clear linkages to ecosystem processes and plant responses to environmental change are strongly needed to reduce empirical and model uncertainties. Further identifying how and when suites of root and whole-plant traits are coordinated or decoupled will ultimately provide a powerful tool for modeling plant form and function at local and global scales.« less

Climate Change Vulnerability of Agro-Ecosystems: Does socio-economic factors matters?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Surendran Nair, S.; Preston, B. L.; King, A. W.; Mei, R.; Post, W. M.

2013-12-01

Climate variability and change has direct impacts on agriculture. Despite continual adaptation to climate as well as gains in technology innovation and adoption, agriculture is still vulnerable to changes in temperature and precipitation expected in coming decades. Generally, researchers use two major methodologies to understand the vulnerability of agro-ecosystems to climate change: process-based crop models and empirical models. However, these models are not yet designed to capture the influence of socioeconomic systems on agro-ecosystem processes and outcomes.. However, socioeconomic processes are an important factor driving agro-ecological responses to biophysical processes (climate, topography and soil), because of the role of human agency in mediating the response of agro-ecosystems to climate. We have developed a framework that integrates socioeconomic and biophysical characteristics of agro-ecosystems using cluster analysis and GIS tools. This framework has been applied to the U.S. Southeast to define unique socio-ecological domains for agriculture. The results demonstrate that socioeconomic characteristics are an important factor influencing agriculture production. These results suggest that the lack of attention to socioeconomic conditions and human agency in agro-ecological modeling creates a potential bias with respect to the representation of climate change impacts.

Multi-model comparison on the effects of climate change on tree species in the eastern U.S.: results from an enhanced niche model and process-based ecosystem and landscape models

Treesearch

Louis R. Iverson; Frank R. Thompson; Stephen Matthews; Matthew Peters; Anantha Prasad; William D. Dijak; Jacob Fraser; Wen J. Wang; Brice Hanberry; Hong He; Maria Janowiak; Patricia Butler; Leslie Brandt; Chris Swanston

2016-01-01

Context. Species distribution models (SDM) establish statistical relationships between the current distribution of species and key attributes whereas process-based models simulate ecosystem and tree species dynamics based on representations of physical and biological processes. TreeAtlas, which uses DISTRIB SDM, and Linkages and LANDIS PRO, process...

Modeling approaches to describe H2O and CO2 exchange in mare ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olchev, A.; Novenko, E.; Volkova, E.

2012-04-01

The modern climatic conditions is strongly influenced by both internal variability of climatic system, and various external natural and anthropogenic factors (IPCC 2007). Significant increase of concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and especially the growth of atmospheric CO2 due to human activity are considered as the main factors that are responsible for global warming and climate changes. A significant part of anthropogenic CO2 is absorbed from the atmosphere by land biota and especially by vegetation cover. However, it is still not completely clear what is the role of different land ecosystems and especially forests and mares in global cycles of H2O and CO2 and what is a sensitivity of these ecosystems to climate changes. Within the frameworks of this study the spatial and temporal variability of H2O and CO2 fluxes in different types of mare ecosystems of the forest-steppe zone in European part of Russia was described using modeling approaches and results of field measurements. For this modeling and experimental study the mare ecosystems of Tula region were selected. The Tula region is located mostly in the forest-steppe zone and it is unique area for such studies because almost all existed types of mare ecosystems of Northern Eurasia distinguished by a geomorphological position, water and mineral supply can be found there. Most mares in Tula region have a relatively small size and surrounded by very heterogeneous forests that make not possible an application of the classical measuring and modeling approaches e.g. an eddy covariance technique or one-dimensional H2O and CO2 exchange models for flux estimation in such sites. In our study to describe the radiation, sensible heat, H2O and CO2 exchange between such heterogeneous mare ecosystems and the atmosphere a three-dimensional model Forbog-3D and one-dimensional Mixfor-SVAT were applied. The main concept used in the Forbog-3D and Mixfor-SVAT models is an aggregated description of physical and biological processes at various hierarchical levels of forest and mire ecosystems: from a single leaf to a tree and an entire ecosystem. The models consist of the several closely coupled sub-models describing: transfer of direct and diffuse solar radiation; turbulent exchange of sensible heat, H2O and CO2 within and above a vegetation cover; transpiration, photosynthesis and respiration of vegetation and soil; heat and moisture transfer in different soil layers. The models were validated and applied to describe the H2O and CO2 exchange processes in various mare ecosystems with different relief position, type of water and mineral supply as well as vegetation composition. Selected mares are located in different parts of the Tula region (both in forest and forest-steppe zones) and characterized by different microclimatic conditions. The study was supported by grants (11-04-97538-r_center_a, 11-04-01622-a and 11-05-00557-a) of the Russian Foundation for Basic Research (RFBR) and by grant of Government of Russian Federation N 11.G34.31.0079.

Ecosystem Encounters: Lessons in Synthetic Ecology.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Adey, Walter H.

1992-01-01

The director of the Marine Systems Laboratory of the Smithsonian Institution discusses steps in developing ecological models. The following topics in using an aquarium for the ecosystem are described: lighting, water motion, water quality and filtration. Presents information on choosing living organisms for the ecosystem. Describes potential…

13C AND 15N IN MICROARTHROPODS REVEAL LITTLE RESPONSE OF DOUGLAS-FIR ECOSYSTEMS TO CLIMATE CHANGE

EPA Science Inventory

Understanding ecosystem carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) cycling under global change requires experiments maintaining natural interactions among soil structure, soil communities, nutrient availability, and plant growth. In model Douglas-fir ecosystems maintained for five growing seaso...

Moderate forest disturbance as a stringent test for gap and big-leaf models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bond-Lamberty, B.; Fisk, J. P.; Holm, J. A.; Bailey, V.; Bohrer, G.; Gough, C. M.

2015-01-01

Disturbance-induced tree mortality is a key factor regulating the carbon balance of a forest, but tree mortality and its subsequent effects are poorly represented processes in terrestrial ecosystem models. It is thus unclear whether models can robustly simulate moderate (non-catastrophic) disturbances, which tend to increase biological and structural complexity and are increasingly common in aging US forests. We tested whether three forest ecosystem models - Biome-BGC (BioGeochemical Cycles), a classic big-leaf model, and the ZELIG and ED (Ecosystem Demography) gap-oriented models - could reproduce the resilience to moderate disturbance observed in an experimentally manipulated forest (the Forest Accelerated Succession Experiment in northern Michigan, USA, in which 38% of canopy dominants were stem girdled and compared to control plots). Each model was parameterized, spun up, and disturbed following similar protocols and run for 5 years post-disturbance. The models replicated observed declines in aboveground biomass well. Biome-BGC captured the timing and rebound of observed leaf area index (LAI), while ZELIG and ED correctly estimated the magnitude of LAI decline. None of the models fully captured the observed post-disturbance C fluxes, in particular gross primary production or net primary production (NPP). Biome-BGC NPP was correctly resilient but for the wrong reasons, and could not match the absolute observational values. ZELIG and ED, in contrast, exhibited large, unobserved drops in NPP and net ecosystem production. The biological mechanisms proposed to explain the observed rapid resilience of the C cycle are typically not incorporated by these or other models. It is thus an open question whether most ecosystem models will simulate correctly the gradual and less extensive tree mortality characteristic of moderate disturbances.

Moderate forest disturbance as a stringent test for gap and big-leaf models

DOE PAGES

Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin; Fisk, Justin P.; Holm, Jennifer; ...

2015-01-27

Disturbance-induced tree mortality is a key factor regulating the carbon balance of a forest, but tree mortality and its subsequent effects are poorly represented processes in terrestrial ecosystem models. It is thus unclear whether models can robustly simulate moderate (non-catastrophic) disturbances, which tend to increase biological and structural complexity and are increasingly common in aging US forests. We tested whether three forest ecosystem models – Biome-BGC (BioGeochemical Cycles), a classic big-leaf model, and the ZELIG and ED (Ecosystem Demography) gap-oriented models – could reproduce the resilience to moderate disturbance observed in an experimentally manipulated forest (the Forest Accelerated Succession Experimentmore » in northern Michigan, USA, in which 38% of canopy dominants were stem girdled and compared to control plots). Each model was parameterized, spun up, and disturbed following similar protocols and run for 5 years post-disturbance. The models replicated observed declines in aboveground biomass well. Biome-BGC captured the timing and rebound of observed leaf area index (LAI), while ZELIG and ED correctly estimated the magnitude of LAI decline. None of the models fully captured the observed post-disturbance C fluxes, in particular gross primary production or net primary production (NPP). Biome-BGC NPP was correctly resilient but for the wrong reasons, and could not match the absolute observational values. ZELIG and ED, in contrast, exhibited large, unobserved drops in NPP and net ecosystem production. The biological mechanisms proposed to explain the observed rapid resilience of the C cycle are typically not incorporated by these or other models. It is thus an open question whether most ecosystem models will simulate correctly the gradual and less extensive tree mortality characteristic of moderate disturbances.« less

Introduction to a special section on ecohydrology of semiarid environments: Confronting mathematical models with ecosystem complexity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Svoray, Tal; Assouline, Shmuel; Katul, Gabriel

2015-11-01

Current literature provides large number of publications about ecohydrological processes and their effect on the biota in drylands. Given the limited laboratory and field experiments in such systems, many of these publications are based on mathematical models of varying complexity. The underlying implicit assumption is that the data set used to evaluate these models covers the parameter space of conditions that characterize drylands and that the models represent the actual processes with acceptable certainty. However, a question raised is to what extent these mathematical models are valid when confronted with observed ecosystem complexity? This Introduction reviews the 16 papers that comprise the Special Section on Eco-hydrology of Semiarid Environments: Confronting Mathematical Models with Ecosystem Complexity. The subjects studied in these papers include rainfall regime, infiltration and preferential flow, evaporation and evapotranspiration, annual net primary production, dispersal and invasion, and vegetation greening. The findings in the papers published in this Special Section show that innovative mathematical modeling approaches can represent actual field measurements. Hence, there are strong grounds for suggesting that mathematical models can contribute to greater understanding of ecosystem complexity through characterization of space-time dynamics of biomass and water storage as well as their multiscale interactions. However, the generality of the models and their low-dimensional representation of many processes may also be a "curse" that results in failures when particulars of an ecosystem are required. It is envisaged that the search for a unifying "general" model, while seductive, may remain elusive in the foreseeable future. It is for this reason that improving the merger between experiments and models of various degrees of complexity continues to shape the future research agenda.

Estimating ecosystem service changes as a precursor to modeling

EPA Science Inventory

EPA's Future Midwestern Landscapes Study will project changes in ecosystem services (ES) for alternative future policy scenarios in the Midwestern U.S. Doing so for detailed landscapes over large spatial scales will require serial application of economic and ecological models. W...

QUANTIFYING AND MODELING THE RISK OF DISTURBANCE TO ECOSYSTEMS CAUSED BY INVASIVE SPECIES

EPA Science Inventory

Invasive species are biological pollutants that threaten ecosystem health. Identifying the mechanisms of invasive and developing predictive models of invasion will be critical to developing risk management strategies for limiting the economic and environmental damage caused by i...

Modeled responses of terrestrial ecosystems to elevated atmospheric CO2: a comparison of simulations by the biogeochemistry models of the Vegetation/Ecosystem Modeling and Analysis Project (VEMAP).

PubMed

Pan, Yude; Melillo, Jerry M; McGuire, A David; Kicklighter, David W; Pitelka, Louis F; Hibbard, Kathy; Pierce, Lars L; Running, Steven W; Ojima, Dennis S; Parton, William J; Schimel, David S

1998-04-01

Although there is a great deal of information concerning responses to increases in atmospheric CO 2 at the tissue and plant levels, there are substantially fewer studies that have investigated ecosystem-level responses in the context of integrated carbon, water, and nutrient cycles. Because our understanding of ecosystem responses to elevated CO 2 is incomplete, modeling is a tool that can be used to investigate the role of plant and soil interactions in the response of terrestrial ecosystems to elevated CO 2 . In this study, we analyze the responses of net primary production (NPP) to doubled CO 2 from 355 to 710 ppmv among three biogeochemistry models in the Vegetation/Ecosystem Modeling and Analysis Project (VEMAP): BIOME-BGC (BioGeochemical Cycles), Century, and the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM). For the conterminous United States, doubled atmospheric CO 2 causes NPP to increase by 5% in Century, 8% in TEM, and 11% in BIOME-BGC. Multiple regression analyses between the NPP response to doubled CO 2 and the mean annual temperature and annual precipitation of biomes or grid cells indicate that there are negative relationships between precipitation and the response of NPP to doubled CO 2 for all three models. In contrast, there are different relationships between temperature and the response of NPP to doubled CO 2 for the three models: there is a negative relationship in the responses of BIOME-BGC, no relationship in the responses of Century, and a positive relationship in the responses of TEM. In BIOME-BGC, the NPP response to doubled CO 2 is controlled by the change in transpiration associated with reduced leaf conductance to water vapor. This change affects soil water, then leaf area development and, finally, NPP. In Century, the response of NPP to doubled CO 2 is controlled by changes in decomposition rates associated with increased soil moisture that results from reduced evapotranspiration. This change affects nitrogen availability for plants, which influences NPP. In TEM, the NPP response to doubled CO 2 is controlled by increased carboxylation which is modified by canopy conductance and the degree to which nitrogen constraints cause down-regulation of photosynthesis. The implementation of these different mechanisms has consequences for the spatial pattern of NPP responses, and represents, in part, conceptual uncertainty about controls over NPP responses. Progress in reducing these uncertainties requires research focused at the ecosystem level to understand how interactions between the carbon, nitrogen, and water cycles influence the response of NPP to elevated atmospheric CO 2 .

Modeled responses of terrestrial ecosystems to elevated atmospheric CO2: A comparison of simulations by the biogeochemistry models of the Vegetation/Ecosystem Modeling and Analysis Project (VEMAP)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pan, Y.; Melillo, J.M.; McGuire, A.D.; Kicklighter, D.W.; Pitelka, Louis F.; Hibbard, K.; Pierce, L.L.; Running, S.W.; Ojima, D.S.; Parton, W.J.; Schimel, D.S.; Borchers, J.; Neilson, R.; Fisher, H.H.; Kittel, T.G.F.; Rossenbloom, N.A.; Fox, S.; Haxeltine, A.; Prentice, I.C.; Sitch, S.; Janetos, A.; McKeown, R.; Nemani, R.; Painter, T.; Rizzo, B.; Smith, T.; Woodward, F.I.

1998-01-01

Although there is a great deal of information concerning responses to increases in atmospheric CO2 at the tissue and plant levels, there are substantially fewer studies that have investigated ecosystem-level responses in the context of integrated carbon, water, and nutrient cycles. Because our understanding of ecosystem responses to elevated CO2 is incomplete, modeling is a tool that can be used to investigate the role of plant and soil interactions in the response of terrestrial ecosystems to elevated CO2. In this study, we analyze the responses of net primary production (NPP) to doubled CO2 from 355 to 710 ppmv among three biogeochemistry models in the Vegetation/Ecosystem Modeling and Analysis Project (VEMAP): BIOME-BGC (BioGeochemical Cycles), Century, and the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM). For the conterminous United States, doubled atmospheric CO2 causes NPP to increase by 5% in Century, 8% in TEM, and 11% in BIOME-BGC. Multiple regression analyses between the NPP response to doubled CO2 and the mean annual temperature and annual precipitation of biomes or grid cells indicate that there are negative relationships between precipitation and the response of NPP to doubled CO2 for all three models. In contrast, there are different relationships between temperature and the response of NPP to doubled CO2 for the three models: there is a negative relationship in the responses of BIOME-BGC, no relationship in the responses of Century, and a positive relationship in the responses of TEM. In BIOME-BGC, the NPP response to doubled CO2 is controlled by the change in transpiration associated with reduced leaf conductance to water vapor. This change affects soil water, then leaf area development and, finally, NPP. In Century, the response of NPP to doubled CO2 is controlled by changes in decomposition rates associated with increased soil moisture that results from reduced evapotranspiration. This change affects nitrogen availability for plants, which influences NPP. In TEM, the NPP response to doubled CO2 is controlled by increased carboxylation which is modified by canopy conductance and the degree to which nitrogen constraints cause down-regulation of photosynthesis. The implementation of these different mechanisms has consequences for the spatial pattern of NPP responses, and represents, in part, conceptual uncertainty about controls over NPP responses. Progress in reducing these uncertainties requires research focused at the ecosystem level to understand how interactions between the carbon, nitrogen, and water cycles influence the response of NPP to elevated atmospheric CO2.

From Genes to Ecosystems in Microbiology: Modeling Approaches and the Importance of Individuality

PubMed Central

Kreft, Jan-Ulrich; Plugge, Caroline M.; Prats, Clara; Leveau, Johan H. J.; Zhang, Weiwen; Hellweger, Ferdi L.

2017-01-01

Models are important tools in microbial ecology. They can be used to advance understanding by helping to interpret observations and test hypotheses, and to predict the effects of ecosystem management actions or a different climate. Over the past decades, biological knowledge and ecosystem observations have advanced to the molecular and in particular gene level. However, microbial ecology models have changed less and a current challenge is to make them utilize the knowledge and observations at the genetic level. We review published models that explicitly consider genes and make predictions at the population or ecosystem level. The models can be grouped into three general approaches, i.e., metabolic flux, gene-centric and agent-based. We describe and contrast these approaches by applying them to a hypothetical ecosystem and discuss their strengths and weaknesses. An important distinguishing feature is how variation between individual cells (individuality) is handled. In microbial ecosystems, individual heterogeneity is generated by a number of mechanisms including stochastic interactions of molecules (e.g., gene expression), stochastic and deterministic cell division asymmetry, small-scale environmental heterogeneity, and differential transport in a heterogeneous environment. This heterogeneity can then be amplified and transferred to other cell properties by several mechanisms, including nutrient uptake, metabolism and growth, cell cycle asynchronicity and the effects of age and damage. For example, stochastic gene expression may lead to heterogeneity in nutrient uptake enzyme levels, which in turn results in heterogeneity in intracellular nutrient levels. Individuality can have important ecological consequences, including division of labor, bet hedging, aging and sub-optimality. Understanding the importance of individuality and the mechanism(s) underlying it for the specific microbial system and question investigated is essential for selecting the optimal modeling strategy. PMID:29230200

Modelling the diurnal and seasonal dynamics of soil CO2 exchange in a semiarid ecosystem with high plant-interspace heterogeneity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gong, Jinnan; Wang, Ben; Jia, Xin; Feng, Wei; Zha, Tianshan; Kellomäki, Seppo; Peltola, Heli

2018-01-01

We used process-based modelling to investigate the roles of carbon-flux (C-flux) components and plant-interspace heterogeneities in regulating soil CO2 exchanges (FS) in a dryland ecosystem with sparse vegetation. To simulate the diurnal and seasonal dynamics of FS, the modelling considered simultaneously the CO2 production, transport and surface exchanges (e.g. biocrust photosynthesis, respiration and photodegradation). The model was parameterized and validated with multivariate data measured during the years 2013-2014 in a semiarid shrubland ecosystem in Yanchi, northwestern China. The model simulation showed that soil rewetting could enhance CO2 dissolution and delay the emission of CO2 produced from rooting zone. In addition, an ineligible fraction of respired CO2 might be removed from soil volumes under respiration chambers by lateral water flows and root uptakes. During rewetting, the lichen-crusted soil could shift temporally from net CO2 source to sink due to the activated photosynthesis of biocrust but the restricted CO2 emissions from subsoil. The presence of plant cover could decrease the root-zone CO2 production and biocrust C sequestration but increase the temperature sensitivities of these fluxes. On the other hand, the sensitivities of root-zone emissions to water content were lower under canopy, which may be due to the advection of water flows from the interspace to canopy. To conclude, the complexity and plant-interspace heterogeneities of soil C processes should be carefully considered to extrapolate findings from chamber to ecosystem scales and to predict the ecosystem responses to climate change and extreme climatic events. Our model can serve as a useful tool to simulate the soil CO2 efflux dynamics in dryland ecosystems.

Implementation of marine spatial planning in shellfish aquaculture management: modeling studies in a Norwegian fjord.

PubMed

Filgueira, Ramon; Grant, Jon; Strand, Øivind

2014-06-01

Shellfish carrying capacity is determined by the interaction of a cultured species with its ecosystem, which is strongly influenced by hydrodynamics. Water circulation controls the exchange of matter between farms and the adjacent areas, which in turn establishes the nutrient supply that supports phytoplankton populations. The complexity of water circulation makes necessary the use of hydrodynamic models with detailed spatial resolution in carrying capacity estimations. This detailed spatial resolution also allows for the study of processes that depend on specific spatial arrangements, e.g., the most suitable location to place farms, which is crucial for marine spatial planning, and consequently for decision support systems. In the present study, a fully spatial physical-biogeochemical model has been combined with scenario building and optimization techniques as a proof of concept of the use of ecosystem modeling as an objective tool to inform marine spatial planning. The object of this exercise was to generate objective knowledge based on an ecosystem approach to establish new mussel aquaculture areas in a Norwegian fjord. Scenario building was used to determine the best location of a pump that can be used to bring nutrient-rich deep waters to the euphotic layer, increasing primary production, and consequently, carrying capacity for mussel cultivation. In addition, an optimization tool, parameter estimation (PEST), was applied to the optimal location and mussel standing stock biomass that maximize production, according to a preestablished carrying capacity criterion. Optimization tools allow us to make rational and transparent decisions to solve a well-defined question, decisions that are essential for policy makers. The outcomes of combining ecosystem models with scenario building and optimization facilitate planning based on an ecosystem approach, highlighting the capabilities of ecosystem modeling as a tool for marine spatial planning.

Modeling Root Exudation, Priming and Protection in Soil Carbon Responses to Elevated CO2 from Ecosystem to Global Scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sulman, B. N.; Phillips, R.; Shevliakova, E.; Oishi, A. C.; Pacala, S. W.

2014-12-01

The sensitivity of soil organic carbon (SOC) to changing environmental conditions represents a critical uncertainty in coupled carbon cycle-climate models. Much of this uncertainty arises from our limited understanding of the extent to which plants induce SOC losses (through accelerated decomposition or "priming") or promote SOC gains (via stabilization through physico-chemical protection). We developed a new SOC model, "Carbon, Organisms, Rhizosphere and Protection in the Soil Environment" (CORPSE), to examine the net effect of priming and protection in response to rising atmospheric CO2, and conducted simulations of rhizosphere priming effects at both ecosystem and global scales. At the ecosystem scale, the model successfully captured and explained disparate SOC responses at the Duke and Oak Ridge free-air CO2 enrichment (FACE) experiments. We show that stabilization of "new" carbon in protected SOC pools may equal or exceed microbial priming of "old" SOC in ecosystems with readily decomposable litter (e.g. Oak Ridge). In contrast, carbon losses owing to priming dominate the net SOC response in ecosystems with more resistant litters (e.g. Duke). For global simulations, the model was fully integrated into the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) land model LM3. Globally, priming effects driven by enhanced root exudation and expansion of the rhizosphere reduced SOC storage in the majority of terrestrial areas, partially counterbalancing SOC gains from the enhanced ecosystem productivity driven by CO2 fertilization. Collectively, our results suggest that SOC stocks globally depend not only on temperature and moisture, but also on vegetation responses to environmental changes, and that protected C may provide an important constraint on priming effects.

Experiences in multiyear combined state-parameter estimation with an ecosystem model of the North Atlantic and Arctic Oceans using the Ensemble Kalman Filter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Simon, Ehouarn; Samuelsen, Annette; Bertino, Laurent; Mouysset, Sandrine

2015-12-01

A sequence of one-year combined state-parameter estimation experiments has been conducted in a North Atlantic and Arctic Ocean configuration of the coupled physical-biogeochemical model HYCOM-NORWECOM over the period 2007-2010. The aim is to evaluate the ability of an ensemble-based data assimilation method to calibrate ecosystem model parameters in a pre-operational setting, namely the production of the MyOcean pilot reanalysis of the Arctic biology. For that purpose, four biological parameters (two phyto- and two zooplankton mortality rates) are estimated by assimilating weekly data such as, satellite-derived Sea Surface Temperature, along-track Sea Level Anomalies, ice concentrations and chlorophyll-a concentrations with an Ensemble Kalman Filter. The set of optimized parameters locally exhibits seasonal variations suggesting that time-dependent parameters should be used in ocean ecosystem models. A clustering analysis of the optimized parameters is performed in order to identify consistent ecosystem regions. In the north part of the domain, where the ecosystem model is the most reliable, most of them can be associated with Longhurst provinces and new provinces emerge in the Arctic Ocean. However, the clusters do not coincide anymore with the Longhurst provinces in the Tropics due to large model errors. Regarding the ecosystem state variables, the assimilation of satellite-derived chlorophyll concentration leads to significant reduction of the RMS errors in the observed variables during the first year, i.e. 2008, compared to a free run simulation. However, local filter divergences of the parameter component occur in 2009 and result in an increase in the RMS error at the time of the spring bloom.

Comparison of Coral Reef Ecosystems along a Fishing Pressure Gradient

PubMed Central

Weijerman, Mariska; Fulton, Elizabeth A.; Parrish, Frank A.

2013-01-01

Three trophic mass-balance models representing coral reef ecosystems along a fishery gradient were compared to evaluate ecosystem effects of fishing. The majority of the biomass estimates came directly from a large-scale visual survey program; therefore, data were collected in the same way for all three models, enhancing comparability. Model outputs–such as net system production, size structure of the community, total throughput, production, consumption, production-to-respiration ratio, and Finn’s cycling index and mean path length–indicate that the systems around the unpopulated French Frigate Shoals and along the relatively lightly populated Kona Coast of Hawai’i Island are mature, stable systems with a high efficiency in recycling of biomass. In contrast, model results show that the reef system around the most populated island in the State of Hawai’i, O’ahu, is in a transitional state with reduced ecosystem resilience and appears to be shifting to an algal-dominated system. Evaluation of the candidate indicators for fishing pressure showed that indicators at the community level (e.g., total biomass, community size structure, trophic level of the community) were most robust (i.e., showed the clearest trend) and that multiple indicators are necessary to identify fishing perturbations. These indicators could be used as performance indicators when compared to a baseline for management purposes. This study shows that ecosystem models can be valuable tools in identification of the system state in terms of complexity, stability, and resilience and, therefore, can complement biological metrics currently used by monitoring programs as indicators for coral reef status. Moreover, ecosystem models can improve our understanding of a system’s internal structure that can be used to support management in identification of approaches to reverse unfavorable states. PMID:23737951

Ecosystem biogeochemistry model parameterization: Do more flux data result in a better model in predicting carbon flux?

DOE PAGES

Zhu, Qing; Zhuang, Qianlai

2015-12-21

Reliability of terrestrial ecosystem models highly depends on the quantity and quality of thedata that have been used to calibrate the models. Nowadays, in situ observations of carbon fluxes areabundant. However, the knowledge of how much data (data length) and which subset of the time seriesdata (data period) should be used to effectively calibrate the model is still lacking. This study uses theAmeriFlux carbon flux data to parameterize the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM) with an adjoint-baseddata assimilation technique for various ecosystem types. Parameterization experiments are thus conductedto explore the impact of both data length and data period on the uncertaintymore » reduction of the posteriormodel parameters and the quantification of site and regional carbon dynamics. We find that: the modelis better constrained when it uses two-year data comparing to using one-year data. Further, two-year datais sufficient in calibrating TEM’s carbon dynamics, since using three-year data could only marginallyimprove the model performance at our study sites; the model is better constrained with the data thathave a higher‘‘climate variability’’than that having a lower one. The climate variability is used to measurethe overall possibility of the ecosystem to experience all climatic conditions including drought and extremeair temperatures and radiation; the U.S. regional simulations indicate that the effect of calibration datalength on carbon dynamics is amplified at regional and temporal scales, leading to large discrepanciesamong different parameterization experiments, especially in July and August. Our findings areconditioned on the specific model we used and the calibration sites we selected. The optimal calibrationdata length may not be suitable for other models. However, this study demonstrates that there may exist athreshold for calibration data length and simply using more data would not guarantee a better modelparameterization and prediction. More importantly, climate variability might be an effective indicator ofinformation within the data, which could help data selection for model parameterization. As a result, we believe ourfindings will benefit the ecosystem modeling community in using multiple-year data to improve modelpredictability.« less

Ecosystem biogeochemistry model parameterization: Do more flux data result in a better model in predicting carbon flux?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhu, Qing; Zhuang, Qianlai

Reliability of terrestrial ecosystem models highly depends on the quantity and quality of thedata that have been used to calibrate the models. Nowadays, in situ observations of carbon fluxes areabundant. However, the knowledge of how much data (data length) and which subset of the time seriesdata (data period) should be used to effectively calibrate the model is still lacking. This study uses theAmeriFlux carbon flux data to parameterize the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM) with an adjoint-baseddata assimilation technique for various ecosystem types. Parameterization experiments are thus conductedto explore the impact of both data length and data period on the uncertaintymore » reduction of the posteriormodel parameters and the quantification of site and regional carbon dynamics. We find that: the modelis better constrained when it uses two-year data comparing to using one-year data. Further, two-year datais sufficient in calibrating TEM’s carbon dynamics, since using three-year data could only marginallyimprove the model performance at our study sites; the model is better constrained with the data thathave a higher‘‘climate variability’’than that having a lower one. The climate variability is used to measurethe overall possibility of the ecosystem to experience all climatic conditions including drought and extremeair temperatures and radiation; the U.S. regional simulations indicate that the effect of calibration datalength on carbon dynamics is amplified at regional and temporal scales, leading to large discrepanciesamong different parameterization experiments, especially in July and August. Our findings areconditioned on the specific model we used and the calibration sites we selected. The optimal calibrationdata length may not be suitable for other models. However, this study demonstrates that there may exist athreshold for calibration data length and simply using more data would not guarantee a better modelparameterization and prediction. More importantly, climate variability might be an effective indicator ofinformation within the data, which could help data selection for model parameterization. As a result, we believe ourfindings will benefit the ecosystem modeling community in using multiple-year data to improve modelpredictability.« less

Understanding the Day Cent model: Calibration, sensitivity, and identifiability through inverse modeling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Necpálová, Magdalena; Anex, Robert P.; Fienen, Michael N.; Del Grosso, Stephen J.; Castellano, Michael J.; Sawyer, John E.; Iqbal, Javed; Pantoja, Jose L.; Barker, Daniel W.

2015-01-01

The ability of biogeochemical ecosystem models to represent agro-ecosystems depends on their correct integration with field observations. We report simultaneous calibration of 67 DayCent model parameters using multiple observation types through inverse modeling using the PEST parameter estimation software. Parameter estimation reduced the total sum of weighted squared residuals by 56% and improved model fit to crop productivity, soil carbon, volumetric soil water content, soil temperature, N2O, and soil3NO− compared to the default simulation. Inverse modeling substantially reduced predictive model error relative to the default model for all model predictions, except for soil 3NO− and 4NH+. Post-processing analyses provided insights into parameter–observation relationships based on parameter correlations, sensitivity and identifiability. Inverse modeling tools are shown to be a powerful way to systematize and accelerate the process of biogeochemical model interrogation, improving our understanding of model function and the underlying ecosystem biogeochemical processes that they represent.

δ15N constraints on long-term nitrogen balances in temperate forests

USGS Publications Warehouse

Perakis, S.S.; Sinkhorn, E.R.; Compton, J.E.

2011-01-01

Biogeochemical theory emphasizes nitrogen (N) limitation and the many factors that can restrict N accumulation in temperate forests, yet lacks a working model of conditions that can promote naturally high N accumulation. We used a dynamic simulation model of ecosystem N and δ15N to evaluate which combination of N input and loss pathways could produce a range of high ecosystem N contents characteristic of forests in the Oregon Coast Range. Total ecosystem N at nine study sites ranged from 8,788 to 22,667 kg ha−1 and carbon (C) ranged from 188 to 460 Mg ha−1, with highest values near the coast. Ecosystem δ15N displayed a curvilinear relationship with ecosystem N content, and largely reflected mineral soil, which accounted for 96–98% of total ecosystem N. Model simulations of ecosystem N balances parameterized with field rates of N leaching required long-term average N inputs that exceed atmospheric deposition and asymbiotic and epiphytic N2-fixation, and that were consistent with cycles of post-fire N2-fixation by early-successional red alder. Soil water δ15NO3 − patterns suggested a shift in relative N losses from denitrification to nitrate leaching as N accumulated, and simulations identified nitrate leaching as the primary N loss pathway that constrains maximum N accumulation. Whereas current theory emphasizes constraints on biological N2-fixation and disturbance-mediated N losses as factors that limit N accumulation in temperate forests, our results suggest that wildfire can foster substantial long-term N accumulation in ecosystems that are colonized by symbiotic N2-fixing vegetation.

Long-term Ecosystem Experiments, Data Assimilation, and Meta-Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hungate, B. A.; Van Groenigen, K. J.; Osenberg, C. W.; van Gestel, N.

2015-12-01

Land ecosystems affect climate and the atmosphere, and climate and atmospheric change affects ecosystems. Syntheses of ecosystem experiments investigating their responses to environmental change holds promise for understanding how to model these interactions, and thereby gain insight into Earth's future biosphere, atmosphere, and climate. Long-term experiments examining ecosystem responses are thought to be especially important in this effort, for their potential to reveal cumulative and progressive effects, subtle effects initially undetectable experimentally, but manifest more clearly over time, often with stronger implications for modeled responses than the more dramatic, short-term experimental responses. Here, we present new analyses of long-term experiments manipulating temperature, CO2 concentration, and precipitation, testing the general hypothesis that there are common temporal patterns of responses that reveal general biogeochemical characterizing ecosystem responses to these environmental changes. For example, we show that increased carbon input with elevated CO2 stimulates emissions of nitrous oxide and methane, important greenhouse gases, and that effects show no signs of diminishing over the duration of experiments that have documented responses. At the same time, we show that the temporal resolution for this response is limited, pointing to a potential limitation in the ability of experiments to address clearly long-term hypotheses. We also show that warming tends to have limited cumulative effects on total soil carbon stocks in long-term experiments, and explore the mechanisms underlying this response. Finally, we discuss the implications of these findings for models used to simulate long-term ecosystem responses to these environmental forcings, as well as the implications of these findings for the next generation of terrestrial ecosystem experiments.

Conceptualizing Stakeholders' Perceptions of Ecosystem Services: A Participatory Systems Mapping Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lopes, Rita; Videira, Nuno

2015-12-01

A participatory system dynamics modelling approach is advanced to support conceptualization of feedback processes underlying ecosystem services and to foster a shared understanding of leverage intervention points. The process includes systems mapping workshop and follow-up tasks aiming at the collaborative construction of causal loop diagrams. A case study developed in a natural area in Portugal illustrates how a stakeholder group was actively engaged in the development of a conceptual model depicting policies for sustaining the climate regulation ecosystem service.

Linkage of a Physically Based Distributed Watershed Model and a Dynamic Plant Growth Model

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-12-01

i.e., Universal Soil Loss Equation ( USLE ) factors, K, C, and P). The K, C, and P factors are empiri- cal coefficients with the same conceptual...with general ecosystem models designed to make long-term projections of ecosystem dynamics. This development effort investigated the linkage of soil ...20 EDYS soil module

Modeled interactive effects of precipitation, temperature, and [CO2] on ecosystem carbon and water dynamics in different climatic zones

Treesearch

Yiqi Luo; Dieter Gerten; Guerric Le Maire; William J. Parton; Ensheng Weng; Xuhui Zhou; Cindy Keough; Claus Beier; Philippe Ciais; Wolfgang Cramer; Jeffrey S. Dukes; Bridget Emmett; Paul J. Hanson; Alan Knapp; Sune Linder; Dan Nepstad; Lindsey. Rustad

2008-01-01

Interactive effects of multiple global change factors on ecosystem processes are complex. It is relatively expensive to explore those interactions in manipulative experiments. We conducted a modeling analysis to identify potentially important interactions and to stimulate hypothesis formulation for experimental research. Four models were used to quantify interactive...

Simulation of the effect of air pollution on forest ecosystems in a region

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tarko, A.M.; Bykadorov, A.V.; Kryuchkov, V.V.

1995-03-01

This article describes a model of air pollution effects on spruce in forests of the northern taiga regions which have been exposed to air pollution from a large metallurgical industrial complex. Both the predictions the model makes about forest ecosystem degradation zones and the limitations of the model are discussed. 5 refs., 1 fig.

An agent architecture for an integrated forest ecosystem management decision support system

Treesearch

Donald Nute; Walter D. Potter; Mayukh Dass; Astrid Glende; Frederick Maier; Hajime Uchiyama; Jin Wang; Mark Twery; Peter Knopp; Scott Thomasma; H. Michael Rauscher

2003-01-01

A wide variety of software tools are available to support decision in the management of forest ecosystems. These tools include databases, growth and yield models, wildlife models, silvicultural expert systems, financial models, geographical informations systems, and visualization tools. Typically, each of these tools has its own complex interface and data format. To...

Response of North American ecosystem models to multi-annual periodicities in temperature and precipitation

Treesearch

J. Alan Yeakley; Ron A. Moen; David D. Breshears; Martha K. Nungesser

1994-01-01

Ecosystem models typically use input temperature and precipitation data generated stochastically from weather station means and variances. Although the weather station data are based on measurements taken over a few decades, model simulations are usually on the order of centuries. Consequently, observed periodicities in temperature and precipitation at the continental...

Modeling Complex Marine Ecosystems: An Investigation of Two Teaching Approaches with Fifth Graders

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Papaevripidou, M.; Constantinou, C. P.; Zacharia, Z. C.

2007-01-01

This study investigated acquisition and transfer of the modeling ability of fifth graders in various domains. Teaching interventions concentrated on the topic of marine ecosystems either through a modeling-based approach or a worksheet-based approach. A quasi-experimental (pre-post comparison study) design was used. The control group (n = 17)…

Ecological Network Indicators of Ecosystem Status and Change in the Baltic Sea

PubMed Central

Tomczak, Maciej T.; Heymans, Johanna J.; Yletyinen, Johanna; Niiranen, Susa; Otto, Saskia A.; Blenckner, Thorsten

2013-01-01

Several marine ecosystems under anthropogenic pressure have experienced shifts from one ecological state to another. In the central Baltic Sea, the regime shift of the 1980s has been associated with food-web reorganization and redirection of energy flow pathways. These long-term dynamics from 1974 to 2006 have been simulated here using a food-web model forced by climate and fishing. Ecological network analysis was performed to calculate indices of ecosystem change. The model replicated the regime shift. The analyses of indicators suggested that the system’s resilience was higher prior to 1988 and lower thereafter. The ecosystem topology also changed from a web-like structure to a linearized food-web. PMID:24116045

Ecosystem function in complex mountain terrain: Combining models and long-term observations to advance process-based understanding

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wieder, William R.; Knowles, John F.; Blanken, Peter D.; Swenson, Sean C.; Suding, Katharine N.

2017-04-01

Abiotic factors structure plant community composition and ecosystem function across many different spatial scales. Often, such variation is considered at regional or global scales, but here we ask whether ecosystem-scale simulations can be used to better understand landscape-level variation that might be particularly important in complex terrain, such as high-elevation mountains. We performed ecosystem-scale simulations by using the Community Land Model (CLM) version 4.5 to better understand how the increased length of growing seasons may impact carbon, water, and energy fluxes in an alpine tundra landscape. The model was forced with meteorological data and validated with observations from the Niwot Ridge Long Term Ecological Research Program site. Our results demonstrate that CLM is capable of reproducing the observed carbon, water, and energy fluxes for discrete vegetation patches across this heterogeneous ecosystem. We subsequently accelerated snowmelt and increased spring and summer air temperatures in order to simulate potential effects of climate change in this region. We found that vegetation communities that were characterized by different snow accumulation dynamics showed divergent biogeochemical responses to a longer growing season. Contrary to expectations, wet meadow ecosystems showed the strongest decreases in plant productivity under extended summer scenarios because of disruptions in hydrologic connectivity. These findings illustrate how Earth system models such as CLM can be used to generate testable hypotheses about the shifting nature of energy, water, and nutrient limitations across space and through time in heterogeneous landscapes; these hypotheses may ultimately guide further experimental work and model development.

Reducing the uncertainty of parameters controlling seasonal carbon and water fluxes in Chinese forests and its implication for simulated climate sensitivities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Yue; Yang, Hui; Wang, Tao; MacBean, Natasha; Bacour, Cédric; Ciais, Philippe; Zhang, Yiping; Zhou, Guangsheng; Piao, Shilong

2017-08-01

Reducing parameter uncertainty of process-based terrestrial ecosystem models (TEMs) is one of the primary targets for accurately estimating carbon budgets and predicting ecosystem responses to climate change. However, parameters in TEMs are rarely constrained by observations from Chinese forest ecosystems, which are important carbon sink over the northern hemispheric land. In this study, eddy covariance data from six forest sites in China are used to optimize parameters of the ORganizing Carbon and Hydrology In Dynamics EcosystEms TEM. The model-data assimilation through parameter optimization largely reduces the prior model errors and improves the simulated seasonal cycle and summer diurnal cycle of net ecosystem exchange, latent heat fluxes, and gross primary production and ecosystem respiration. Climate change experiments based on the optimized model are deployed to indicate that forest net primary production (NPP) is suppressed in response to warming in the southern China but stimulated in the northeastern China. Altered precipitation has an asymmetric impact on forest NPP at sites in water-limited regions, with the optimization-induced reduction in response of NPP to precipitation decline being as large as 61% at a deciduous broadleaf forest site. We find that seasonal optimization alters forest carbon cycle responses to environmental change, with the parameter optimization consistently reducing the simulated positive response of heterotrophic respiration to warming. Evaluations from independent observations suggest that improving model structure still matters most for long-term carbon stock and its changes, in particular, nutrient- and age-related changes of photosynthetic rates, carbon allocation, and tree mortality.

A new map of standardized terrestrial ecosystems of Africa

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sayre, Roger G.; Comer, Patrick; Hak, Jon; Josse, Carmen; Bow, Jacquie; Warner, Harumi; Larwanou, Mahamane; Kelbessa, Ensermu; Bekele, Tamrat; Kehl, Harald; Amena, Ruba; Andriamasimanana, Rado; Ba, Taibou; Benson, Laurence; Boucher, Timothy; Brown, Matthew; Cress, Jill J.; Dassering, Oueddo; Friesen, Beverly A.; Gachathi, Francis; Houcine, Sebei; Keita, Mahamadou; Khamala, Erick; Marangu, Dan; Mokua, Fredrick; Morou, Boube; Mucina, Ladislav; Mugisha, Samuel; Mwavu, Edward; Rutherford, Michael; Sanou, Patrice; Syampungani, Stephen; Tomor, Bojoi; Vall, Abdallahi Ould Mohamed; Vande Weghe, Jean Pierre; Wangui, Eunice; Waruingi, Lucy

2013-01-01

Terrestrial ecosystems and vegetation of Africa were classified and mapped as part of a larger effort and global protocol (GEOSS – the Global Earth Observation System of Systems), which includes an activity to map terrestrial ecosystems of the earth in a standardized, robust, and practical manner, and at the finest possible spatial resolution. To model the potential distribution of ecosystems, new continental datasets for several key physical environment datalayers (including coastline, landforms, surficial lithology, and bioclimates) were developed at spatial and classification resolutions finer than existing similar datalayers. A hierarchical vegetation classification was developed by African ecosystem scientists and vegetation geographers, who also provided sample locations of the newly classified vegetation units. The vegetation types and ecosystems were then mapped across the continent using a classification and regression tree (CART) inductive model, which predicted the potential distribution of vegetation types from a suite of biophysical environmental attributes including bioclimate region, biogeographic region, surficial lithology, landform, elevation and land cover. Multi-scale ecosystems were classified and mapped in an increasingly detailed hierarchical framework using vegetation-based concepts of class, subclass, formation, division, and macrogroup levels. The finest vegetation units (macrogroups) classified and mapped in this effort are defined using diagnostic plant species and diagnostic growth forms that reflect biogeographic differences in composition and sub-continental to regional differences in mesoclimate, geology, substrates, hydrology, and disturbance regimes (FGDC, 2008). The macrogroups are regarded as meso-scale (100s to 10,000s of hectares) ecosystems. A total of 126 macrogroup types were mapped, each with multiple, repeating occurrences on the landscape. The modeling effort was implemented at a base spatial resolution of 90 m. In addition to creating several rich, new continent-wide biophysical datalayers describing African vegetation and ecosystems, our intention was to explore feasible approaches to rapidly moving this type of standardized, continent-wide, ecosystem classification and mapping effort forward.

Revealing Invisible Water: Moisture Recycling as an Ecosystem Service.

PubMed

Keys, Patrick W; Wang-Erlandsson, Lan; Gordon, Line J

2016-01-01

An ecosystem service is a benefit derived by humanity that can be traced back to an ecological process. Although ecosystem services related to surface water have been thoroughly described, the relationship between atmospheric water and ecosystem services has been mostly neglected, and perhaps misunderstood. Recent advances in land-atmosphere modeling have revealed the importance of terrestrial ecosystems for moisture recycling. In this paper, we analyze the extent to which vegetation sustains the supply of atmospheric moisture and precipitation for downwind beneficiaries, globally. We simulate land-surface evaporation with a global hydrology model and track changes to moisture recycling using an atmospheric moisture budget model, and we define vegetation-regulated moisture recycling as the difference in moisture recycling between current vegetation and a hypothetical desert world. Our results show that nearly a fifth of annual average precipitation falling on land is from vegetation-regulated moisture recycling, but the global variability is large, with many places receiving nearly half their precipitation from this ecosystem service. The largest potential impacts for changes to this ecosystem service are land-use changes across temperate regions in North America and Russia. Likewise, in semi-arid regions reliant on rainfed agricultural production, land-use change that even modestly reduces evaporation and subsequent precipitation, could significantly affect human well-being. We also present a regional case study in the Mato Grosso region of Brazil, where we identify the specific moisture recycling ecosystem services associated with the vegetation in Mato Grosso. We find that Mato Grosso vegetation regulates some internal precipitation, with a diffuse region of benefit downwind, primarily to the south and east, including the La Plata River basin and the megacities of Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro. We synthesize our global and regional results into a generalized framework for describing moisture recycling as an ecosystem service. We conclude that future work ought to disentangle whether and how this vegetation-regulated moisture recycling interacts with other ecosystem services, so that trade-offs can be assessed in a comprehensive and sustainable manner.

Rangeland management for multiple outcomes: Explicity integrating ecosystem services into management models

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

In recent decades, there has been increased interest in ecosystem services among landowners, and a growing diversity of stakeholders on rangelands. Given these changes, management cannot focus solely on maximizing ranch proceeds, but must also incorporate ecosystem service goals to sustain resources...

Space-time modeling in EPA's Ecosystem Services Research Program

EPA Science Inventory

The US EPA is conducting a long-term research program on the effects of human actions on ecosystem services. Ecosystem services are defined in this program as “the products of ecological functions or processes that directly or indirectly contribute to human well-being.” Modelin...

Quantitative Models for Ecosystem Assessment in Narragansett Bay: Response to Nutrient Loading and Other Stressors

EPA Science Inventory

Multiple drivers, including nutrient loading and climate change, affect the Narragansett Bay ecosystem. Managers are interested in understanding the timing and magnitude of these effects, as well as ecosystem responses to restoration actions, such as the capacity and potential fo...

The Lagrangian Ensemble metamodel for simulating plankton ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woods, J. D.

2005-10-01

This paper presents a detailed account of the Lagrangian Ensemble (LE) metamodel for simulating plankton ecosystems. It uses agent-based modelling to describe the life histories of many thousands of individual plankters. The demography of each plankton population is computed from those life histories. So too is bio-optical and biochemical feedback to the environment. The resulting “virtual ecosystem” is a comprehensive simulation of the plankton ecosystem. It is based on phenotypic equations for individual micro-organisms. LE modelling differs significantly from population-based modelling. The latter uses prognostic equations to compute demography and biofeedback directly. LE modelling diagnoses them from the properties of individual micro-organisms, whose behaviour is computed from prognostic equations. That indirect approach permits the ecosystem to adjust gracefully to changes in exogenous forcing. The paper starts with theory: it defines the Lagrangian Ensemble metamodel and explains how LE code performs a number of computations “behind the curtain”. They include budgeting chemicals, and deriving biofeedback and demography from individuals. The next section describes the practice of LE modelling. It starts with designing a model that complies with the LE metamodel. Then it describes the scenario for exogenous properties that provide the computation with initial and boundary conditions. These procedures differ significantly from those used in population-based modelling. The next section shows how LE modelling is used in research, teaching and planning. The practice depends largely on hindcasting to overcome the limits to predictability of weather forecasting. The scientific method explains observable ecosystem phenomena in terms of finer-grained processes that cannot be observed, but which are controlled by the basic laws of physics, chemistry and biology. What-If? Prediction ( WIP), used for planning, extends hindcasting by adding events that describe natural or man-made hazards and remedial actions. Verification is based on the Ecological Turing Test, which takes account of uncertainties in the observed and simulated versions of a target ecological phenomenon. The rest of the paper is devoted to a case study designed to show what LE modelling offers the biological oceanographer. The case study is presented in two parts. The first documents the WB model (Woods & Barkmann, 1994) and scenario used to simulate the ecosystem in a mesocosm moored in deep water off the Azores. The second part illustrates the emergent properties of that virtual ecosystem. The behaviour and development of an individual plankton lineage are revealed by an audit trail of the agent used in the computation. The fields of environmental properties reveal the impact of biofeedback. The fields of demographic properties show how changes in individuals cumulatively affect the birth and death rates of their population. This case study documents the virtual ecosystem used by Woods, Perilli and Barkmann (2005; hereafter WPB); to investigate the stability of simulations created by the Lagrangian Ensemble metamodel. The Azores virtual ecosystem was created and analysed on the Virtual Ecology Workbench (VEW) which is described briefly in the Appendix.

Developing a Modeling Framework for Ecosystem Forecasting: The Lake Michigan Pilot

EPA Science Inventory

Recent multi-party efforts to coordinate modeling activities that support ecosystem management decision-making in the Great Lakes have resulted in the recommendation to convene an interagency working group that will develop a pilot approach for Lake Michigan. The process will br...

Assimilating satellite-based canopy height within an ecosystem model to estimate aboveground forest biomass

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Joetzjer, E.; Pillet, M.; Ciais, P.; Barbier, N.; Chave, J.; Schlund, M.; Maignan, F.; Barichivich, J.; Luyssaert, S.; Hérault, B.; von Poncet, F.; Poulter, B.

2017-07-01

Despite advances in Earth observation and modeling, estimating tropical biomass remains a challenge. Recent work suggests that integrating satellite measurements of canopy height within ecosystem models is a promising approach to infer biomass. We tested the feasibility of this approach to retrieve aboveground biomass (AGB) at three tropical forest sites by assimilating remotely sensed canopy height derived from a texture analysis algorithm applied to the high-resolution Pleiades imager in the Organizing Carbon and Hydrology in Dynamic Ecosystems Canopy (ORCHIDEE-CAN) ecosystem model. While mean AGB could be estimated within 10% of AGB derived from census data in average across sites, canopy height derived from Pleiades product was spatially too smooth, thus unable to accurately resolve large height (and biomass) variations within the site considered. The error budget was evaluated in details, and systematic errors related to the ORCHIDEE-CAN structure contribute as a secondary source of error and could be overcome by using improved allometric equations.

FOREST ECOLOGY. Pervasive drought legacies in forest ecosystems and their implications for carbon cycle models.

PubMed

Anderegg, W R L; Schwalm, C; Biondi, F; Camarero, J J; Koch, G; Litvak, M; Ogle, K; Shaw, J D; Shevliakova, E; Williams, A P; Wolf, A; Ziaco, E; Pacala, S

2015-07-31

The impacts of climate extremes on terrestrial ecosystems are poorly understood but important for predicting carbon cycle feedbacks to climate change. Coupled climate-carbon cycle models typically assume that vegetation recovery from extreme drought is immediate and complete, which conflicts with the understanding of basic plant physiology. We examined the recovery of stem growth in trees after severe drought at 1338 forest sites across the globe, comprising 49,339 site-years, and compared the results with simulated recovery in climate-vegetation models. We found pervasive and substantial "legacy effects" of reduced growth and incomplete recovery for 1 to 4 years after severe drought. Legacy effects were most prevalent in dry ecosystems, among Pinaceae, and among species with low hydraulic safety margins. In contrast, limited or no legacy effects after drought were simulated by current climate-vegetation models. Our results highlight hysteresis in ecosystem-level carbon cycling and delayed recovery from climate extremes. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Modelling the growth of Populus species using Ecosystem Demography (ED) model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, D.; Lebauer, D. S.; Feng, X.; Dietze, M. C.

2010-12-01

Hybrid poplar plantations are an important source being evaluated for biomass production. Effective management of such plantations requires adequate growth and yield models. The Ecosystem Demography model (ED) makes predictions about the large scales of interest in above- and belowground ecosystem structure and the fluxes of carbon and water from a description of the fine-scale physiological processes. In this study, we used a workflow management tool, the Predictive Ecophysiological Carbon flux Analyzer (PECAn), to integrate literature data, field measurement and the ED model to provide predictions of ecosystem functioning. Parameters for the ED ensemble runs were sampled from the posterior distribution of ecophysiological traits of Populus species compiled from the literature using a Bayesian meta-analysis approach. Sensitivity analysis was performed to identify the parameters which contribute the most to the uncertainties of the ED model output. Model emulation techniques were used to update parameter posterior distributions using field-observed data in northern Wisconsin hybrid poplar plantations. Model results were evaluated with 5-year field-observed data in a hybrid poplar plantation at New Franklin, MO. ED was then used to predict the spatial variability of poplar yield in the coterminous United States (United States minus Alaska and Hawaii). Sensitivity analysis showed that root respiration, dark respiration, growth respiration, stomatal slope and specific leaf area contribute the most to the uncertainty, which suggests that our field measurements and data collection should focus on these parameters. The ED model successfully captured the inter-annual and spatial variability of the yield of poplar. Analyses in progress with the ED model focus on evaluating the ecosystem services of short-rotation woody plantations, such as impacts on soil carbon storage, water use, and nutrient retention.

Ecohydrodynamics of cold-water coral reefs: a case study of the Mingulay Reef Complex (western Scotland).

PubMed

Moreno Navas, Juan; Miller, Peter I; Miller, Peter L; Henry, Lea-Anne; Hennige, Sebastian J; Roberts, J Murray

2014-01-01

Ecohydrodynamics investigates the hydrodynamic constraints on ecosystems across different temporal and spatial scales. Ecohydrodynamics play a pivotal role in the structure and functioning of marine ecosystems, however the lack of integrated complex flow models for deep-water ecosystems beyond the coastal zone prevents further synthesis in these settings. We present a hydrodynamic model for one of Earth's most biologically diverse deep-water ecosystems, cold-water coral reefs. The Mingulay Reef Complex (western Scotland) is an inshore seascape of cold-water coral reefs formed by the scleractinian coral Lophelia pertusa. We applied single-image edge detection and composite front maps using satellite remote sensing, to detect oceanographic fronts and peaks of chlorophyll a values that likely affect food supply to corals and other suspension-feeding fauna. We also present a high resolution 3D ocean model to incorporate salient aspects of the regional and local oceanography. Model validation using in situ current speed, direction and sea elevation data confirmed the model's realistic representation of spatial and temporal aspects of circulation at the reef complex including a tidally driven current regime, eddies, and downwelling phenomena. This novel combination of 3D hydrodynamic modelling and remote sensing in deep-water ecosystems improves our understanding of the temporal and spatial scales of ecological processes occurring in marine systems. The modelled information has been integrated into a 3D GIS, providing a user interface for visualization and interrogation of results that allows wider ecological application of the model and that can provide valuable input for marine biodiversity and conservation applications.

Ecohydrodynamics of Cold-Water Coral Reefs: A Case Study of the Mingulay Reef Complex (Western Scotland)

PubMed Central

Navas, Juan Moreno; Miller, Peter L.; Henry, Lea-Anne; Hennige, Sebastian J.; Roberts, J. Murray

2014-01-01

Ecohydrodynamics investigates the hydrodynamic constraints on ecosystems across different temporal and spatial scales. Ecohydrodynamics play a pivotal role in the structure and functioning of marine ecosystems, however the lack of integrated complex flow models for deep-water ecosystems beyond the coastal zone prevents further synthesis in these settings. We present a hydrodynamic model for one of Earth's most biologically diverse deep-water ecosystems, cold-water coral reefs. The Mingulay Reef Complex (western Scotland) is an inshore seascape of cold-water coral reefs formed by the scleractinian coral Lophelia pertusa. We applied single-image edge detection and composite front maps using satellite remote sensing, to detect oceanographic fronts and peaks of chlorophyll a values that likely affect food supply to corals and other suspension-feeding fauna. We also present a high resolution 3D ocean model to incorporate salient aspects of the regional and local oceanography. Model validation using in situ current speed, direction and sea elevation data confirmed the model's realistic representation of spatial and temporal aspects of circulation at the reef complex including a tidally driven current regime, eddies, and downwelling phenomena. This novel combination of 3D hydrodynamic modelling and remote sensing in deep-water ecosystems improves our understanding of the temporal and spatial scales of ecological processes occurring in marine systems. The modelled information has been integrated into a 3D GIS, providing a user interface for visualization and interrogation of results that allows wider ecological application of the model and that can provide valuable input for marine biodiversity and conservation applications. PMID:24873971

Alternative ways of using field-based estimates to calibrate ecosystem models and their implications for carbon cycle studies

USGS Publications Warehouse

He, Yujie; Zhuang, Qianlai; McGuire, David; Liu, Yaling; Chen, Min

2013-01-01

Model-data fusion is a process in which field observations are used to constrain model parameters. How observations are used to constrain parameters has a direct impact on the carbon cycle dynamics simulated by ecosystem models. In this study, we present an evaluation of several options for the use of observations in modeling regional carbon dynamics and explore the implications of those options. We calibrated the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model on a hierarchy of three vegetation classification levels for the Alaskan boreal forest: species level, plant-functional-type level (PFT level), and biome level, and we examined the differences in simulated carbon dynamics. Species-specific field-based estimates were directly used to parameterize the model for species-level simulations, while weighted averages based on species percent cover were used to generate estimates for PFT- and biome-level model parameterization. We found that calibrated key ecosystem process parameters differed substantially among species and overlapped for species that are categorized into different PFTs. Our analysis of parameter sets suggests that the PFT-level parameterizations primarily reflected the dominant species and that functional information of some species were lost from the PFT-level parameterizations. The biome-level parameterization was primarily representative of the needleleaf PFT and lost information on broadleaf species or PFT function. Our results indicate that PFT-level simulations may be potentially representative of the performance of species-level simulations while biome-level simulations may result in biased estimates. Improved theoretical and empirical justifications for grouping species into PFTs or biomes are needed to adequately represent the dynamics of ecosystem functioning and structure.

Evaluation of CH4 and N2O Budget of Natural Ecosystems and Croplands in Asia with a Process-based Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ito, A.

2017-12-01

Terrestrial ecosystems are important sink of carbon dioxide (CO2) but significant sources of other greenhouse gases such as methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O). To resolve the role of terrestrial biosphere in the climate system, we need to quantify total greenhouse gas budget with an adequate accuracy. In addition to top-down evaluation on the basis of atmospheric measurements, model-based approach is required for integration and up-scaling of filed data and for prediction under changing environment and different management practices. Since the early 2000s, we have developed a process-based model of terrestrial biogeochemical cycles focusing on atmosphere-ecosystem exchange of trace gases: Vegetation Integrated SImulator for Trace gases (VISIT). The model includes simple and comprehensive schemes of carbon and nitrogen cycles in terrestrial ecosystems, allowing us to capture dynamic nature of greenhouse gas budget. Beginning from natural ecosystems such as temperate and tropical forests, the models is now applicable to croplands by including agricultural practices such as planting, harvest, and fertilizer input. Global simulation results have been published from several papers, but model validation and benchmarking using up-to-date observations are remained for works. The model is now applied to several practical issues such as evaluation of N2O emission from bio-fuel croplands, which are expected to accomplish the mitigation target of the Paris Agreement. We also show several topics about basic model development such as revised CH4 emission affected by dynamic water-table and refined N2O emission from nitrification.

From theoretical to actual ecosystem services: mapping beneficiaries and spatial flows in ecosystem service assessments

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bagstad, Kenneth J.; Villa, Ferdinando; Batker, David; Harrison-Cox, Jennifer; Voigt, Brian; Johnson, Gary W.

2014-01-01

Ecosystem services mapping and modeling has focused more on supply than demand, until recently. Whereas the potential provision of economic benefits from ecosystems to people is often quantified through ecological production functions, the use of and demand for ecosystem services has received less attention, as have the spatial flows of services from ecosystems to people. However, new modeling approaches that map and quantify service-specific sources (ecosystem capacity to provide a service), sinks (biophysical or anthropogenic features that deplete or alter service flows), users (user locations and level of demand), and spatial flows can provide a more complete understanding of ecosystem services. Through a case study in Puget Sound, Washington State, USA, we quantify and differentiate between the theoretical or in situ provision of services, i.e., ecosystems’ capacity to supply services, and their actual provision when accounting for the location of beneficiaries and the spatial connections that mediate service flows between people and ecosystems. Our analysis includes five ecosystem services: carbon sequestration and storage, riverine flood regulation, sediment regulation for reservoirs, open space proximity, and scenic viewsheds. Each ecosystem service is characterized by different beneficiary groups and means of service flow. Using the ARtificial Intelligence for Ecosystem Services (ARIES) methodology we map service supply, demand, and flow, extending on simpler approaches used by past studies to map service provision and use. With the exception of the carbon sequestration service, regions that actually provided services to people, i.e., connected to beneficiaries via flow paths, amounted to 16-66% of those theoretically capable of supplying services, i.e., all ecosystems across the landscape. These results offer a more complete understanding of the spatial dynamics of ecosystem services and their effects, and may provide a sounder basis for economic valuation and policy applications than studies that consider only theoretical service provision and/or use.

The economics of fuel management: Wildfire, invasive plants, and the dynamics of sagebrush rangelands in the western United States

Treesearch

Michael H. Taylor; Kimberly Rollins; Mimako Kobayashi; Robin J. Tausch

2013-01-01

In this article we develop a simulation model to evaluate the economic efficiency of fuel treatments and apply it to two sagebrush ecosystems in the Great Basin of the western United States: the Wyoming Sagebrush Steppe and Mountain Big Sagebrush ecosystems. These ecosystems face the two most prominent concerns in sagebrush ecosystems relative to wildfire: annual grass...

Devil's in the details: Using archaeological and historical data to refine ecosystem models at the local level

Treesearch

Don Hann

2006-01-01

The United States Forest Service is charged with managing extensive and varied ecosystems throughout the country. Under the rubric of “ecosystem management” the goal has been to provide goods and services from Forest Service lands while maintaining ecological integrity. Recognizing that ecosystems are dynamic in nature, the concept of Historical Range of Variability (...

Divergence of ecosystem services in U.S. National Forests and Grasslands under a changing climate.

PubMed

Duan, Kai; Sun, Ge; Sun, Shanlei; Caldwell, Peter V; Cohen, Erika C; McNulty, Steven G; Aldridge, Heather D; Zhang, Yang

2016-04-21

The 170 National Forests and Grasslands (NFs) in the conterminous United States are public lands that provide important ecosystem services such as clean water and timber supply to the American people. This study investigates the potential impacts of climate change on two key ecosystem functions (i.e., water yield and ecosystem productivity) using the most recent climate projections derived from 20 Global Climate Models (GCMs) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). We find that future climate change may result in a significant reduction in water yield but an increase in ecosystem productivity in NFs. On average, gross ecosystem productivity is projected to increase by 76 ~ 229 g C m(-2) yr(-1) (8% ~ 24%) while water yield is projected to decrease by 18 ~ 31 mm yr(-1) (4% ~ 7%) by 2100 as a result of the combination of increased air temperature (+1.8 ~ +5.2 °C) and precipitation (+17 ~ +51 mm yr(-1)). The notable divergence in ecosystem services of water supply and carbon sequestration is expected to intensify under higher greenhouse gas emission and associated climate change in the future, posing greater challenges to managing NFs for both ecosystem services.

Great Lakes rivermouth ecosystems: scientific synthesis and management implications

USGS Publications Warehouse

Larson, James H.; Trebitz, Anett S.; Steinman, Alan D.; Wiley, Michael J.; Carlson Mazur, Martha; Pebbles, Victoria; Braun, Heather A.; Seelbach, Paul W.

2013-01-01

At the interface of the Great Lakes and their tributary rivers lies the rivermouths, a class of aquatic ecosystem where lake and lotic processes mix and distinct features emerge. Many rivermouths are the focal point of both human interaction with the Great Lakes and human impacts to the lakes; many cities, ports, and beaches are located in rivermouth ecosystems, and these human pressures often degrade key ecological functions that rivermouths provide. Despite their ecological uniqueness and apparent economic importance, there has been relatively little research on these ecosystems as a class relative to studies on upstream rivers or the open-lake waters. Here we present a synthesis of current knowledge about ecosystem structure and function in Great Lakes rivermouths based on studies in both Laurentian rivermouths, coastal wetlands, and marine estuarine systems. A conceptual model is presented that establishes a common semantic framework for discussing the characteristic spatial features of rivermouths. This model then is used to conceptually link ecosystem structure and function to ecological services provided by rivermouths. This synthesis helps identify the critical gaps in understanding rivermouth ecology. Specifically, additional information is needed on how rivermouths collectively influence the Great Lakes ecosystem, how human alterations influence rivermouth functions, and how ecosystem services provided by rivermouths can be managed to benefit the surrounding socioeconomic networks.

Terrestrial Ecosystems-Surficial Lithology of the Conterminous United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cress, Jill; Soller, David; Sayre, Roger G.; Comer, Patrick; Warner, Harumi

2010-01-01

As part of an effort to map terrestrial ecosystems, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has generated a new classification of the lithology of surficial materials to be used in creating maps depicting standardized, terrestrial ecosystem models for the conterminous United States. The ecosystems classification used in this effort was developed by NatureServe. A biophysical stratification approach, developed for South America and now being implemented globally, was used to model the ecosystem distributions. This ecosystem mapping methodology is transparent, replicable, and rigorous. Surficial lithology strongly influences the differentiation and distribution of terrestrial ecosystems, and is one of the key input layers in this biophysical stratification. These surficial lithology classes were derived from the USGS map 'Surficial Materials in the Conterminous United States,' which was based on texture, internal structure, thickness, and environment of deposition or formation of materials. This original map was produced from a compilation of regional surficial and bedrock geology source maps using broadly defined common map units for the purpose of providing an overview of the existing data and knowledge. For the terrestrial ecosystem effort, the 28 lithology classes of Soller and Reheis (2004) were generalized and then reclassified into a set of 17 lithologies that typically control or influence the distribution of vegetation types.

Emergent climate and CO2 sensitivities of net primary productivity in ecosystem models do not agree with empirical data in temperate forests of eastern North America.

PubMed

Rollinson, Christine R; Liu, Yao; Raiho, Ann; Moore, David J P; McLachlan, Jason; Bishop, Daniel A; Dye, Alex; Matthes, Jaclyn H; Hessl, Amy; Hickler, Thomas; Pederson, Neil; Poulter, Benjamin; Quaife, Tristan; Schaefer, Kevin; Steinkamp, Jörg; Dietze, Michael C

2017-07-01

Ecosystem models show divergent responses of the terrestrial carbon cycle to global change over the next century. Individual model evaluation and multimodel comparisons with data have largely focused on individual processes at subannual to decadal scales. Thus far, data-based evaluations of emergent ecosystem responses to climate and CO 2 at multidecadal and centennial timescales have been rare. We compared the sensitivity of net primary productivity (NPP) to temperature, precipitation, and CO 2 in ten ecosystem models with the sensitivities found in tree-ring reconstructions of NPP and raw ring-width series at six temperate forest sites. These model-data comparisons were evaluated at three temporal extents to determine whether the rapid, directional changes in temperature and CO 2 in the recent past skew our observed responses to multiple drivers of change. All models tested here were more sensitive to low growing season precipitation than tree-ring NPP and ring widths in the past 30 years, although some model precipitation responses were more consistent with tree rings when evaluated over a full century. Similarly, all models had negative or no response to warm-growing season temperatures, while tree-ring data showed consistently positive effects of temperature. Although precipitation responses were least consistent among models, differences among models to CO 2 drive divergence and ensemble uncertainty in relative change in NPP over the past century. Changes in forest composition within models had no effect on climate or CO 2 sensitivity. Fire in model simulations reduced model sensitivity to climate and CO 2 , but only over the course of multiple centuries. Formal evaluation of emergent model behavior at multidecadal and multicentennial timescales is essential to reconciling model projections with observed ecosystem responses to past climate change. Future evaluation should focus on improved representation of disturbance and biomass change as well as the feedbacks with moisture balance and CO 2 in individual models. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The southern megalopolis: using the past to predict the future of urban sprawl in the Southeast U.S.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Terando, Adam; Costanza, Jennifer; Belyea, Curtis; Dunn, Robert R.; McKerrow, Alexa; Collazo, Jaime

2014-01-01

The future health of ecosystems is arguably as dependent on urban sprawl as it is on human-caused climatic warming. Urban sprawl strongly impacts the urban ecosystems it creates and the natural and agro-ecosystems that it displaces and fragments. Here, we project urban sprawl changes for the next 50 years for the fast-growing Southeast U.S. Previous studies have focused on modeling population density, but the urban extent is arguably as important as population density per se in terms of its ecological and conservation impacts. We develop simulations using the SLEUTH urban growth model that complement population-driven models but focus on spatial pattern and extent. To better capture the reach of low-density suburban development, we extend the capabilities of SLEUTH by incorporating street-network information. Our simulations point to a future in which the extent of urbanization in the Southeast is projected to increase by 101% to 192%. Our results highlight areas where ecosystem fragmentation is likely, and serve as a benchmark to explore the challenging tradeoffs between ecosystem health, economic growth and cultural desires.

The Southern Megalopolis: Using the Past to Predict the Future of Urban Sprawl in the Southeast U.S

PubMed Central

Terando, Adam J.; Costanza, Jennifer; Belyea, Curtis; Dunn, Robert R.; McKerrow, Alexa; Collazo, Jaime A.

2014-01-01

The future health of ecosystems is arguably as dependent on urban sprawl as it is on human-caused climatic warming. Urban sprawl strongly impacts the urban ecosystems it creates and the natural and agro-ecosystems that it displaces and fragments. Here, we project urban sprawl changes for the next 50 years for the fast-growing Southeast U.S. Previous studies have focused on modeling population density, but the urban extent is arguably as important as population density per se in terms of its ecological and conservation impacts. We develop simulations using the SLEUTH urban growth model that complement population-driven models but focus on spatial pattern and extent. To better capture the reach of low-density suburban development, we extend the capabilities of SLEUTH by incorporating street-network information. Our simulations point to a future in which the extent of urbanization in the Southeast is projected to increase by 101% to 192%. Our results highlight areas where ecosystem fragmentation is likely, and serve as a benchmark to explore the challenging tradeoffs between ecosystem health, economic growth and cultural desires. PMID:25054329

Exploiting delayed transitions to sustain semiarid ecosystems after catastrophic shifts.

PubMed

Vidiella, Blai; Sardanyés, Josep; Solé, Ricard

2018-06-01

Semiarid ecosystems (including arid, semiarid and dry-subhumid ecosystems) span more than 40% of extant habitats and contain a similar percentage of the human population. Theoretical models and palaeoclimatic data predict a grim future, with rapid shifts towards a desert state, with accelerated diversity losses and ecological collapses. These shifts are a consequence of the special nonlinearities resulting from ecological facilitation. Here, we investigate a simple model of semiarid ecosystems identifying the so-called ghost, which appears after a catastrophic transition from a vegetated to a desert state once a critical rate of soil degradation is overcome. The ghost involves a slowdown of transients towards the desert state, making the ecosystem seem stable even though vegetation extinction is inevitable. We use this model to show how to exploit the ecological ghosts to avoid collapse. Doing so involves the restoration of small fractions of desert areas with vegetation capable of maintaining a stable community once the catastrophic shift condition has been achieved. This intervention method is successfully tested under the presence of demographic stochastic fluctuations. © 2018 The Author(s).

Interactions between marine biota and ENSO: a conceptual model analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heinemann, M.; Timmermann, A.; Feudel, U.

2011-01-01

We develop a conceptual coupled atmosphere-ocean-ecosystem model for the tropical Pacific to investigate the interaction between marine biota and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Ocean and atmosphere are represented by a two-box model for the equatorial Pacific cold tongue and the warm pool, including a simplified mixed layer scheme. Marine biota are represented by a three-component (nutrient, phytoplankton, and zooplankton) ecosystem model. The atmosphere-ocean model exhibits an oscillatory state which qualitatively captures the main physics of ENSO. During an ENSO cycle, the variation of nutrient upwelling, and, to a small extent, the variation of photosynthetically available radiation force an ecosystem oscillation. The simplified ecosystem in turn, due to the effect of phytoplankton on the absorption of shortwave radiation in the water column, leads to (1) a warming of the tropical Pacific, (2) a reduction of the ENSO amplitude, and (3) a prolongation of the ENSO period. We qualitatively investigate these bio-physical coupling mechanisms using continuation methods. It is demonstrated that bio-physical coupling may play a considerable role in modulating ENSO variability.

Modelling Pseudocalanus elongatus stage-structured population dynamics embedded in a water column ecosystem model for the northern North Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moll, Andreas; Stegert, Christoph

2007-01-01

This paper outlines an approach to couple a structured zooplankton population model with state variables for eggs, nauplii, two copepodites stages and adults adapted to Pseudocalanus elongatus into the complex marine ecosystem model ECOHAM2 with 13 state variables resolving the carbon and nitrogen cycle. Different temperature and food scenarios derived from laboratory culture studies were examined to improve the process parameterisation for copepod stage dependent development processes. To study annual cycles under realistic weather and hydrographic conditions, the coupled ecosystem-zooplankton model is applied to a water column in the northern North Sea. The main ecosystem state variables were validated against observed monthly mean values. Then vertical profiles of selected state variables were compared to the physical forcing to study differences between zooplankton as one biomass state variable or partitioned into five population state variables. Simulated generation times are more affected by temperature than food conditions except during the spring phytoplankton bloom. Up to six generations within the annual cycle can be discerned in the simulation.

The importance of radiation for semiempirical water-use efficiency models

DOE PAGES

Boese, Sven; Jung, Martin; Carvalhais, Nuno; ...

2017-06-22

Water-use efficiency (WUE) is a fundamental property for the coupling of carbon and water cycles in plants and ecosystems. Existing model formulations predicting this variable differ in the type of response of WUE to the atmospheric vapor pressure deficit of water (VPD). We tested a representative WUE model on the ecosystem scale at 110 eddy covariance sites of the FLUXNET initiative by predicting evapotranspiration (ET) based on gross primary productivity (GPP) and VPD. We found that introducing an intercept term in the formulation increases model performance considerably, indicating that an additional factor needs to be considered. We demonstrate that thismore » intercept term varies seasonally and we subsequently associate it with radiation. Replacing the constant intercept term with a linear function of global radiation was found to further improve model predictions of ET. Our new semiempirical ecosystem WUE formulation indicates that, averaged over all sites, this radiation term accounts for up to half (39–47 %) of transpiration. These empirical findings challenge the current understanding of water-use efficiency on the ecosystem scale.« less

The PEcAn Project: Accessible Tools for On-demand Ecosystem Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cowdery, E.; Kooper, R.; LeBauer, D.; Desai, A. R.; Mantooth, J.; Dietze, M.

2014-12-01

Ecosystem models play a critical role in understanding the terrestrial biosphere and forecasting changes in the carbon cycle, however current forecasts have considerable uncertainty. The amount of data being collected and produced is increasing on daily basis as we enter the "big data" era, but only a fraction of this data is being used to constrain models. Until we can improve the problems of model accessibility and model-data communication, none of these resources can be used to their full potential. The Predictive Ecosystem Analyzer (PEcAn) is an ecoinformatics toolbox and a set of workflows that wrap around an ecosystem model and manage the flow of information in and out of regional-scale TBMs. Here we present new modules developed in PEcAn to manage the processing of meteorological data, one of the primary driver dependencies for ecosystem models. The module downloads, reads, extracts, and converts meteorological observations to Unidata Climate Forecast (CF) NetCDF community standard, a convention used for most climate forecast and weather models. The module also automates the conversion from NetCDF to model specific formats, including basic merging, gap-filling, and downscaling procedures. PEcAn currently supports tower-based micrometeorological observations at Ameriflux and FluxNET sites, site-level CSV-formatted data, and regional and global reanalysis products such as the North American Regional Reanalysis and CRU-NCEP. The workflow is easily extensible to additional products and processing algorithms.These meteorological workflows have been coupled with the PEcAn web interface and now allow anyone to run multiple ecosystem models for any location on the Earth by simply clicking on an intuitive Google-map based interface. This will allow users to more readily compare models to observations at those sites, leading to better calibration and validation. Current work is extending these workflows to also process field, remotely-sensed, and historical observations of vegetation composition and structure. The processing of heterogeneous met and veg data within PEcAn is made possible using the Brown Dog cyberinfrastructure tools for unstructured data.

Global sensitivity analysis, probabilistic calibration, and predictive assessment for the data assimilation linked ecosystem carbon model

DOE PAGES

Safta, C.; Ricciuto, Daniel M.; Sargsyan, Khachik; ...

2015-07-01

In this paper we propose a probabilistic framework for an uncertainty quantification (UQ) study of a carbon cycle model and focus on the comparison between steady-state and transient simulation setups. A global sensitivity analysis (GSA) study indicates the parameters and parameter couplings that are important at different times of the year for quantities of interest (QoIs) obtained with the data assimilation linked ecosystem carbon (DALEC) model. We then employ a Bayesian approach and a statistical model error term to calibrate the parameters of DALEC using net ecosystem exchange (NEE) observations at the Harvard Forest site. The calibration results are employedmore » in the second part of the paper to assess the predictive skill of the model via posterior predictive checks.« less

Data Synthesis and Data Assimilation at Global Change Experiments and Fluxnet Toward Improving Land Process Models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Luo, Yiqi

The project was conducted during the period from 7/1/2012 to 6/30/2017 with three major tasks: (1) data synthesis and development of data assimilation (DA) techniques to constrain modeled ecosystem feedback to climate change; (2) applications of DA techniques to improve process models at different scales from ecosystem to regions and the globe; and 3) improvements of modeling soil carbon (C) dynamics by land surface models. During this period, we have synthesized published data from soil incubation experiments (e.g., Chen et al., 2016; Xu et al., 2016; Feng et al., 2016), global change experiments (e.g., Li et al., 2013; Shi etmore » al., 2015, 2016; Liang et al., 2016) and fluxnet (e.g., Niu et al., 2012., Xia et al., 2015; Li et al., 2016). These data have been organized into multiple data products and have been used to identify general mechanisms and estimate parameters for model improvement. We used the data sets that we collected and the DA techniques to improve model performance of both ecosystem models and global land models. The objectives are: 1) to improve model simulations of litter and soil carbon storage (e.g., Schädel et al., 2013; Hararuk and Luo, 2014; Hararuk et al., 2014; Liang et al., 2015); 2) to explore the effects of CO 2, warming and precipitation on ecosystem processes (e.g., van Groenigen et al., 2014; Shi et al., 2015, 2016; Feng et al., 2017); and 3) to estimate parameters variability in different ecosystems (e.g., Li et al., 2016). We developed a traceability framework, which was based on matrix approaches and decomposed the modeled steady-state terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage capacity into four can trace the difference in ecosystem carbon storage capacity among different biomes to four traceable components: net primary productivity (NPP), baseline C residence times, environmental scalars and climate forcing (Xia et al., 2013). With this framework, we can diagnose the differences in modeled carbon storage across ecosystems, biomes, and models. This framework has been successfully implemented by several global land models, such as CABLE (Xia et al., 2013), LPJ-GUESS (Ahlström et al., 2015), CLM (Hararuk et al., 2014; Huang et al., 2017, submitted; Shi et al., 2017, submitted), and ORCHIDEE (Huang et al., 2017, unpublished). Moreover, we have identified the theoretical foundation of the determinants of transient C storage dynamics by adding another term, C storage potential, to the steady-state traceability framework (Luo et al., 2017). The theoretical foundation of transient C storage dynamics has been applied to develop a transient traceability framework to explore the traceable components of transient C storage dynamics responded to the rising CO 2 and climate change in the two contrasting ecosystem types Duke needleleaved forest and Harvard deciduous broadleaved forest (Jiang et al., 2017, in revision). Overall, with the data synthesis, data assimilation techniques, and the steady-state and transient traceability frameworks, we have greatly improved land process models for predicting responses and feedback of terrestrial C dynamics to global change. The matrix approaches has the potential to be applied in theoretical research on nitrogen and phosphorus cycle, and therefore, the coupling of carbon-nitrogen-phosphorus.« less

Mapping potential carbon and timber losses from hurricanes using a decision tree and ecosystem services driver model.

PubMed

Delphin, S; Escobedo, F J; Abd-Elrahman, A; Cropper, W

2013-11-15

Information on the effect of direct drivers such as hurricanes on ecosystem services is relevant to landowners and policy makers due to predicted effects from climate change. We identified forest damage risk zones due to hurricanes and estimated the potential loss of 2 key ecosystem services: aboveground carbon storage and timber volume. Using land cover, plot-level forest inventory data, the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model, and a decision tree-based framework; we determined potential damage to subtropical forests from hurricanes in the Lower Suwannee River (LS) and Pensacola Bay (PB) watersheds in Florida, US. We used biophysical factors identified in previous studies as being influential in forest damage in our decision tree and hurricane wind risk maps. Results show that 31% and 0.5% of the total aboveground carbon storage in the LS and PB, respectively was located in high forest damage risk (HR) zones. Overall 15% and 0.7% of the total timber net volume in the LS and PB, respectively, was in HR zones. This model can also be used for identifying timber salvage areas, developing ecosystem service provision and management scenarios, and assessing the effect of other drivers on ecosystem services and goods. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

"I have a connection!": The situated sense-making of an elementary student about the role of water in modeled vs. experienced ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roberts, Lisa Elisabeth N.

Current policy and research have led the field of science education towards a model of "science as practice." In the past decade, several research programs on model-based reasoning practices in education have articulated key dimensions of practice, including constructing and defending models, comparing models to empirical data, using representations to identify patterns in data and use those as inscriptions to buttress arguments. This study presents a detailed case of how the use of a physical microcosm and children's self-directed representations of an ecosystem constrained and afforded student sense-making in an urban elementary classroom. The case analyzed the experiences of a 10-year old fifth grade student, Jorge, and the variation in his expressed understanding of ecosystems as he interacted with academic tasks, along with models and representations, to design, observe and explain an ecological microcosm. The study used a conceptual framework that brings together theories of situated cognition and Doyle's work on academic task to explain how and why Jorge's perception and communication of dimensions of ecosystem structure, function, and behavior appear to "come in and out of focus," influenced by the affordances of the tools and resources available, the academic task as given by the teacher, and Jorge's own experiences and knowledge of phenomena related to ecosystems. Findings from this study suggest that elementary students' ability or inability to address particular ecological concepts in a given task relate less to gaps in their understanding and more to the structure of academic tasks and learning contexts. The process of a student interacting with curriculum follows a dynamic trajectory and leads to emergent outcomes. As a result of the complex interactions of task, tools, and his own interests and agency, Jorge's attunement to the role of water in ecosystems comes in and out of focus throughout the unit. The instructional constraint of needing to integrate the FOSS Water Cycle curriculum into the Bottle Biology Project became an affordance for Jorge to ask questions, observe, and theorize about the role of water and the water cycle in an ecosystem. The practice of modeling a closed ecosystem made salient to Jorge the boundaries of a system and the conservation of water within that system. The closed ecosystem model also presented constraints to students' sense making about the role of interactions when students lack domain knowledge in ecology. Relying on students' own talk, photographs and representations as explanations of phenomena in the Bio Bottle, without establishing norms of representational conventions and communication, resulted in missed opportunities for Jorge to reinforce his sense making during the activity and to develop conventions of scientific representation. Findings from this study can be used to inform the design and implementation of learning environments and curricular activities for elementary and middle school students that address all three dimensions of the Next Generation Science Standards: a) developing conceptual understanding of key concepts in the domain of ecology, b) the cross-cutting concept of systems, and c) multiple practices that ecologists use in developing and evaluating models that explain ecosystem structures, functions, and change over time.

Habitat restoration from an ecosystem goods and services perspective: Application of a spatially explicit individual-based model

EPA Science Inventory

Estuarine ecosystems provide many services to humans, but these ecosystems are also under pressure from human development, which has led to large investments in habitat protection and restoration. Restoration in estuaries is typically focused on emergent and submerged vegetation ...

An eco-hydrological modeling framework for assessing trade-offs among ecosystem services in response to alternative land use and climate

EPA Science Inventory

Scientists, policymakers, community planners and others have discussed ecosystem services for decades, however, society is still in the early stages of developing methodologies to quantify and value the services provided by ecosystems. For example, the U.S. Environmental Protect...

An ecological basis for ecosystem management

Treesearch

M. R. Kaufmann; R. T. Graham; D. A. Boyce; W. H. Moir; L. Perry; R. T. Reynolds; R. L. Bassett; P. Mehlhop; C. B. Edminster; W. M. Block; P. S. Corn

1994-01-01

Guiding principles based on conservation biology are applied in assessing ecosystem needs. Ecosystem, economic, and social needs are integrated in a decision model in which the guiding principles are used as a primary filter for evaluating proposed actions. Management practices consistent with the guiding principles are likely to lead to ecological, economic, and...

ENVIRONMENTAL CONSEQUENCES OF LAND USE CHANGE: ACCOUNTING FOR COMPLEXITY WITH AGENT-BASED MODELS

EPA Science Inventory

The effects of people on ecosystems and the impacts of ecosystem services on human well-being are being viewed increasingly as an integrated system. Demographic and economic pressures change a variety of ecological indicators, which can then result in reduced quality of ecosystem...

Modelling C3 photosynthesis from the chloroplast to the ecosystem

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Globally, photosynthesis accounts for the largest flux of CO2 from the atmosphere into ecosystems and is the driving process for terrestrial ecosystem function. The importance of accurate predictions of photosynthesis over a range of plant growth conditions led to the development of a C3 photosynthe...

An individual-based process model to simulate landscape-scale forest ecosystem dynamics

Treesearch

Rupert Seidl; Werner Rammer; Robert M. Scheller; Thomas Spies

2012-01-01

Forest ecosystem dynamics emerges from nonlinear interactions between adaptive biotic agents (i.e., individual trees) and their relationship with a spatially and temporally heterogeneous abiotic environment. Understanding and predicting the dynamics resulting from these complex interactions is crucial for the sustainable stewardship of ecosystems, particularly in the...

CHARACTERIZE INTERACTIONS BETWEEN ECOSYSTEM FUNCTIONING AND CHANGES IN CLIMATE, UV, AND LAND USE

EPA Science Inventory

Assessments of the long-term impacts of global changes in climate, ultraviolet (UV) radiation and land use on ecosystems require scientific data, concepts and models that describe the responses of ecosystem health to stresses related to the changes as well as information and mode...

EXPOSURE OF RIPARIAN ECOSYSTEMS TO NON-INDIGENOUS PLANT SPECIES: A CONCEPTUAL RISK ASSESSMENT MODEL

EPA Science Inventory

Biological invasions are one of the foremost threats to the integrity of riparian

ecosystems worldwide, but little is known regarding the long-term invasion dynamics of

non-indigenous plant species (NIPS) along rivers. Riparian ecosystems are of great

importa...

Legacy effects of a regional drought on aboveground net primary production in six central US grasslands

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Global climate models predict increases in the frequency and severity of drought worldwide, directly affecting most ecosystem types. Consequently, drought legacy effects (drought-induced alterations in ecosystem function postdrought) are expected to become more common in ecosystems varying from dese...

Modelling night-time ecosystem respiration by a constrained source optimization method

Treesearch

Chun-Tai Lai; Gabriel Katul; John Butnor; David Ellsworth; Ram Oren

2002-01-01

One of the main challenges to quantifying ecosystem carbon budgets is properly quantifying the magnitude of night-time ecosystem respiration. Inverse Lagrangian dispersion analysis provides a promising approach to addressing such a problem when measured mean CO2 concentration profiles and nocturnal velocity statistics are available. An inverse...

The Homeland Security Ecosystem: An Analysis of Hierarchical and Ecosystem Models and Their Influence on Decision Makers

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-12-01

flows, diversity, emergence, networks, fusion, strategic planning, information sharing, ecosystem, hierarchy, NJ Regional Operations Intelligence ...Related Information...........................................................................79 viii 3. Production of Disaster Intelligence for... Intelligence for Field Personnel .................80 5. Focused Collection Efforts to Support FEMA and NJ OEM Operations

A Digital Ecosystems Model of Assessment Feedback on Student Learning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gomez, Stephen; Andersson, Holger; Park, Julian; Maw, Stephen; Crook, Anne; Orsmond, Paul

2013-01-01

The term ecosystem has been used to describe complex interactions between living organisms and the physical world. The principles underlying ecosystems can also be applied to complex human interactions in the digital world. As internet technologies make an increasing contribution to teaching and learning practice in higher education, the…

3 CFR 13626 - Executive Order 13626 of September 10, 2012. Gulf Coast Ecosystem Restoration

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... information relevant to Gulf Coast restoration, including through research, modeling, and monitoring; and..., planning, and the exchange of information in order to better implement Gulf Coast ecosystem restoration and... Ecosystem Restoration Council (Gulf Restoration Council), which will build upon the Task Force's already...

Implications of Uncertainty in Fossil Fuel Emissions for Terrestrial Ecosystem Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

King, A. W.; Ricciuto, D. M.; Mao, J.; Andres, R. J.

2017-12-01

Given observations of the increase in atmospheric CO2, estimates of anthropogenic emissions and models of oceanic CO2 uptake, one can estimate net global CO2 exchange between the atmosphere and terrestrial ecosystems as the residual of the balanced global carbon budget. Estimates from the Global Carbon Project 2016 show that terrestrial ecosystems are a growing sink for atmospheric CO2 (averaging 2.12 Gt C y-1 for the period 1959-2015 with a growth rate of 0.03 Gt C y-1 per year) but with considerable year-to-year variability (standard deviation of 1.07 Gt C y-1). Within the uncertainty of the observations, emissions estimates and ocean modeling, this residual calculation is a robust estimate of a global terrestrial sink for CO2. A task of terrestrial ecosystem science is to explain the trend and variability in this estimate. However, "within the uncertainty" is an important caveat. The uncertainty (2σ; 95% confidence interval) in fossil fuel emissions is 8.4% (±0.8 Gt C in 2015). Combined with uncertainty in other carbon budget components, the 2σ uncertainty surrounding the global net terrestrial ecosystem CO2 exchange is ±1.6 Gt C y-1. Ignoring the uncertainty, the estimate of a general terrestrial sink includes 2 years (1987 and 1998) in which terrestrial ecosystems are a small source of CO2 to the atmosphere. However, with 2σ uncertainty, terrestrial ecosystems may have been a source in as many as 18 years. We examine how well global terrestrial biosphere models simulate the trend and interannual variability of the global-budget estimate of the terrestrial sink within the context of this uncertainty (e.g., which models fall outside the 2σ uncertainty and in what years). Models are generally capable of reproducing the trend in net terrestrial exchange, but are less able to capture interannual variability and often fall outside the 2σ uncertainty. The trend in the residual carbon budget estimate is primarily associated with the increase in atmospheric CO2, while interannual variation is related to variations in global land-surface temperature with weaker sinks in warmer years. We examine whether these relationships are reproduced in models. Their absence might explain weaknesses in model simulations or in the reconstruction of historical climate used as drivers in model intercomparison projects (MIPs).

Balancing trade-offs between ecosystem services in Germany’s forests under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gutsch, Martin; Lasch-Born, Petra; Kollas, Chris; Suckow, Felicitas; Reyer, Christopher P. O.

2018-04-01

Germany’s forests provide a variety of ecosystem services. Sustainable forest management aims to optimize the provision of these services at regional level. However, climate change will impact forest ecosystems and subsequently ecosystem services. The objective of this study is to quantify the effects of two alternative management scenarios and climate impacts on forest variables indicative of ecosystem services related to timber, habitat, water, and carbon. The ecosystem services are represented through nine model output variables (timber harvest, above and belowground biomass, net ecosystem production, soil carbon, percolation, nitrogen leaching, deadwood, tree dimension, broadleaf tree proportion) from the process-based forest model 4C. We simulated forest growth, carbon and water cycling until 2045 with 4C set-up for the whole German forest area based on National Forest Inventory data and driven by three management strategies (nature protection, biomass production and a baseline management) and an ensemble of regional climate scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 8.5). We provide results as relative changes compared to the baseline management and observed climate. Forest management measures have the strongest effects on ecosystem services inducing positive or negative changes of up to 40% depending on the ecosystem service in question, whereas climate change only slightly alters ecosystem services averaged over the whole forest area. The ecosystem services ‘carbon’ and ‘timber’ benefit from climate change, while ‘water’ and ‘habitat’ lose. We detect clear trade-offs between ‘timber’ and all other ecosystem services, as well as synergies between ‘habitat’ and ‘carbon’. When evaluating all ecosystem services simultaneously, our results reveal certain interrelations between climate and management scenarios. North-eastern and western forest regions are more suitable to provide timber (while minimizing the negative impacts on remaining ecosystem services) whereas southern and central forest regions are more suitable to fulfil ‘habitat’ and ‘carbon’ services. The results provide the base for future forest management optimizations at the regional scale in order to maximize ecosystem services and forest ecosystem sustainability at the national scale.

Integrating modelling and remote sensing to identify ecosystem performance anomalies in the boreal forest, Yukon River Basin, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wylie, B.K.; Zhang, L.; Bliss, Norman B.; Ji, Lei; Tieszen, Larry L.; Jolly, W. M.

2008-01-01

High-latitude ecosystems are exposed to more pronounced warming effects than other parts of the globe. We develop a technique to monitor ecological changes in a way that distinguishes climate influences from disturbances. In this study, we account for climatic influences on Alaskan boreal forest performance with a data-driven model. We defined ecosystem performance anomalies (EPA) using the residuals of the model and made annual maps of EPA. Most areas (88%) did not have anomalous ecosystem performance for at least 6 of 8 years between 1996 and 2004. Areas with underperforming EPA (10%) often indicate areas associated with recent fires and areas of possible insect infestation or drying soil related to permafrost degradation. Overperforming areas (2%) occurred in older fire recovery areas where increased deciduous vegetation components are expected. The EPA measure was validated with composite burn index data and Landsat vegetation indices near and within burned areas.

Modelling plankton ecosystems in the meta-omics era. Are we ready?

PubMed

Stec, Krzysztof Franciszek; Caputi, Luigi; Buttigieg, Pier Luigi; D'Alelio, Domenico; Ibarbalz, Federico Matias; Sullivan, Matthew B; Chaffron, Samuel; Bowler, Chris; Ribera d'Alcalà, Maurizio; Iudicone, Daniele

2017-04-01

Recent progress in applying meta-omics approaches to the study of marine ecosystems potentially allows scientists to study the genetic and functional diversity of plankton at an unprecedented depth and with enhanced precision. However, while a range of persistent technical issues still need to be resolved, a much greater obstacle currently preventing a complete and integrated view of the marine ecosystem is the absence of a clear conceptual framework. Herein, we discuss the knowledge that has thus far been derived from conceptual and statistical modelling of marine plankton ecosystems, and illustrate the potential power of integrated meta-omics approaches in the field. We then propose the use of a semantic framework is necessary to support integrative ecological modelling in the meta-omics era, particularly when having to face the increased interdisciplinarity needed to address global issues related to climate change. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Inferring Aggregated Functional Traits from Metagenomic Data Using Constrained Non-negative Matrix Factorization: Application to Fiber Degradation in the Human Gut Microbiota.

PubMed

Raguideau, Sébastien; Plancade, Sandra; Pons, Nicolas; Leclerc, Marion; Laroche, Béatrice

2016-12-01

Whole Genome Shotgun (WGS) metagenomics is increasingly used to study the structure and functions of complex microbial ecosystems, both from the taxonomic and functional point of view. Gene inventories of otherwise uncultured microbial communities make the direct functional profiling of microbial communities possible. The concept of community aggregated trait has been adapted from environmental and plant functional ecology to the framework of microbial ecology. Community aggregated traits are quantified from WGS data by computing the abundance of relevant marker genes. They can be used to study key processes at the ecosystem level and correlate environmental factors and ecosystem functions. In this paper we propose a novel model based approach to infer combinations of aggregated traits characterizing specific ecosystemic metabolic processes. We formulate a model of these Combined Aggregated Functional Traits (CAFTs) accounting for a hierarchical structure of genes, which are associated on microbial genomes, further linked at the ecosystem level by complex co-occurrences or interactions. The model is completed with constraints specifically designed to exploit available genomic information, in order to favor biologically relevant CAFTs. The CAFTs structure, as well as their intensity in the ecosystem, is obtained by solving a constrained Non-negative Matrix Factorization (NMF) problem. We developed a multicriteria selection procedure for the number of CAFTs. We illustrated our method on the modelling of ecosystemic functional traits of fiber degradation by the human gut microbiota. We used 1408 samples of gene abundances from several high-throughput sequencing projects and found that four CAFTs only were needed to represent the fiber degradation potential. This data reduction highlighted biologically consistent functional patterns while providing a high quality preservation of the original data. Our method is generic and can be applied to other metabolic processes in the gut or in other ecosystems.