Stanol esters as a component of maximal dietary therapy in the National Cholesterol Education Program Adult Treatment Panel III report.

PubMed

Grundy, Scott M

2005-07-04

Use of plant stanols/sterols in forms that are sufficiently bioavailable for therapeutic effect should be a key element of maximal dietary therapy. This principle was recognized by National Cholesterol Education Program (NCEP) Adult Treatment Panel III (ATP III) and has been amply confirmed by experimental studies in humans. Since the introduction of statins, dietary therapy for control of elevated low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol levels has received less attention. The time has come, however, to reassert the importance of maximal dietary therapy as a cost-effective means for treatment of elevated LDL concentrations and for lifetime prevention of coronary heart disease.

Metabolic syndrome in type 2 diabetes: comparison of WHO, modified ATPIII & IDF criteria.

PubMed

Ahmed, Asma; Khan, Talha Ehsan; Yasmeen, Tahira; Awan, Safia; Islam, Najmul

2012-06-01

To determine the frequency of metabolic syndrome in type 2 diabetes according to three commonly used operational definitions {World Health Organization (WHO), National Cholesterol Education Program Adult Treatment Panel (NCEP ATP III) and International Diabetes Federation( IDF)}. To evaluate the agreement between these classifications in the Pakistani cohort. Data was collected retrospectively of 210 patients with type 2 diabetes visiting outpatient clinics of one of the large tertiary care hospitals at Karachi, Pakistan between June 2008 to November 2008. The prevalence of metabolic syndrome was found to be 81.4% (WHO), 86.7 % (IDF) and 91.9 % (NCEP ATPIII). The degree of agreement (kappa statistic) was found to be highest among IDF & NCEP ATPIII (0.728) as compared to (0.436 & 0.417) between WHO & ATP and WHO & IDF respectively. The most significant predictors for metabolic syndrome were found out to be female gender OR= 8.74 95% CI 1.51-50.53, low HDL cholesterol levels OR = 0.89 95% CI 0.84-0.94 and high systolic blood pressure OR= 1.06 95% CI 1.009-1.11. Our study results suggested that NCEP ATPIII and IDF are the most reliable criteria for diagnosing metabolic syndrome in type 2 diabetic patients, with NECP capturing more patients in comparison to IDF definition. The alarmingly high frequency of metabolic syndrome in type 2 diabetes found in this study suggests that primary prevention strategies should be initiated earlier and early in this ethnic group and our health care system should be geared up to cope with this deadly quartet.

Metabolic syndrome and risk of incident diabetes: findings from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition-Potsdam Study

PubMed Central

Ford, Earl S; Schulze, Matthias B; Pischon, Tobias; Bergmann, Manuela M; Joost, Hans-Georg; Boeing, Heiner

2008-01-01

Background Several aspects concerning the relationship between the metabolic syndrome and incident diabetes are incompletely understood including the magnitude of the risk estimate, potential gender differences in the associations between the metabolic syndrome and incident diabetes, the associations between the components of the metabolic syndrome and incident diabetes, and whether the metabolic syndrome provides additional prediction beyond its components. To shed light on these issues, we examined the prospective association between the metabolic syndrome defined by the National Cholesterol Education Program (NCEP) and International Diabetes Federation (IDF) and diabetes. Methods We used data for 2796 men and women aged 35–65 years from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition-Potsdam Study followed for an average of 6.9 years. This analysis employed a case-cohort design that included 697 participants who developed diabetes and 2099 participants who did not. Incident diabetes was identified on the basis of self-reports and verified by contacting the patient's attending physician. Results The adjusted hazard ratio for the NCEP definition was 4.62 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 3.90–5.48) and that for the IDF definition was 4.59 (95% CI: 3.84–5.50). The adjusted hazard ratios for the NCEP but not IDF definition were higher for women than men. When participants who had no cardiometabolic abnormalities were used as the reference group for the NCEP definition, the adjusted hazard ratio for having 3 or more abnormalities increased to 22.50 (95% CI: 11.21–45.19). Of the five components, abdominal obesity and hyperglycemia were most strongly associated with incident diabetes. Conclusion In this study population, both definitions of the metabolic syndrome provided similar estimates of relative risk for incident diabetes. The increase in risk for participants with the metabolic syndrome according to the NCEP definition was very large when contrasted with the risk among those who had no cardiometabolic abnormalities. PMID:19077281

Climate Prediction Center - NCEP Global Ocean Data Assimilation System:

Science.gov Websites

home page National Weather Service NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS home page Climate Prediction Monthly in NetCDF Other formats Links NOAA Ocean Climate Observation Program (OCO) Climate Test Bed About Prediction (NCEP) are a valuable community asset for monitoring different aspects of ocean climate

A two-year randomized weight loss trial comparing a vegan diet to a more moderate low-fat diet.

PubMed

Turner-McGrievy, Gabrielle M; Barnard, Neal D; Scialli, Anthony R

2007-09-01

The objective was to assess the effect of a low-fat, vegan diet compared with the National Cholesterol Education Program (NCEP) diet on weight loss maintenance at 1 and 2 years. Sixty-four overweight, postmenopausal women were randomly assigned to a vegan or NCEP diet for 14 weeks, and 62 women began the study. The study was done in two replications. Participants in the first replication (N = 28) received no follow-up support after the 14 weeks, and those in the second replication (N = 34) were offered group support meetings for 1 year. Weight and diet adherence were measured at 1 and 2 years for all participants. Weight loss is reported as median (interquartile range) and is the difference from baseline weight at years 1 and 2. Individuals in the vegan group lost more weight than those in the NCEP group at 1 year [-4.9 (-0.5, -8.0) kg vs. -1.8 (0.8, -4.3); p < 0.05] and at 2 years [-3.1 (0.0, -6.0) kg vs. -0.8 (3.1, -4.2) kg; p < 0.05]. Those participants offered group support lost more weight at 1 year (p < 0.01) and 2 years (p < 0.05) than those without support. Attendance at meetings was associated with improved weight loss at 1 year (p < 0.001) and 2 years (p < 0.01). A vegan diet was associated with significantly greater weight loss than the NCEP diet at 1 and 2 years. Both group support and meeting attendance were associated with significant weight loss at follow-up.

Prevalence of Metabolic Syndrome in Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus Using NCEP-ATPIII, IDF and WHO Definition and Its Agreement in Gwalior Chambal Region of Central India

PubMed Central

Yadav, Dhananjay; Mahajan, Sunil; Subramanian, Senthil K.; Bisen, Prakash Singh; Chung, Choon Hee; Prasad, GBKS

2013-01-01

The aim of study was to determine the prevalence of metabolic syndrome (MetS) in people with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). National Cholesterol Education Program (NCEP) ATPIII Criteria, International Diabetes Federation and the World Health Organization (WHO) definitions were used in quantifying the metabolic syndrome and also the concordance between these three criteria’s used for identifying metabolic syndrome. Methods: This cross-sectional study involved 700 type 2 diabetic subjects from the urban areas of Gwalior Chambal region (Central India). Subjects in the age group of 28-87 yrs were included in the study. Type I diabetics, pregnant ladies and those with chronic viral and bacterial infections and serious metabolic disorders were excluded from the study. Fasting blood glucose, Blood lipids (T-cholesterol, triglyceride, HDL-cholesterol) were assessed and anthropometry blood pressure were measured from all the subjects. Results: The Prevalence of metabolic syndrome was found to be 45.8%, 57.7% and 28% following NCEP-ATPIII Criteria, IDF and WHO definitions, respectively. Using all the three definitions the prevalence was higher in women in all age groups. ATP III and IDF criteria showed good agreement (κ 0.68) compared to ATP III with WHO (κ 0.54) and IDF with WHO (κ 0.34) criteria. Highest prevalence was observed following IDF definition. Conclusions: A good agreement was observed between ATPIII and IDF criteria. Maximum prevalence of Metabolic syndrome was recorded when IDF criteria was followed. NCEP-ATPIII criteria for the diagnosis of MetS and this criterion reflected equal importance to the every variable and showed a good agreement between the different criteria used. PMID:24171882

The importance of waist circumference in the definition of metabolic syndrome: prospective analyses of mortality in men.

PubMed

Katzmarzyk, Peter T; Janssen, Ian; Ross, Robert; Church, Timothy S; Blair, Steven N

2006-02-01

The purpose of this study was to compare the predictive ability of the National Cholesterol Education Panel (NCEP), revised NCEP (NCEP-R), and International Diabetes Federation (IDF) metabolic syndrome criteria for mortality risk, and to examine the effects of waist circumference on mortality within the context of these criteria. The sample included 20,789 white, non-Hispanic men 20-83 years of age from the Aerobics Center Longitudinal Study. The main outcome measures were all-cause and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality over 11.4 years of follow-up. The proportions of men with the metabolic syndrome were 19.7, 27, and 30% at baseline, respectively, according to NCEP, NCEP-R, and IDF criteria. A total of 632 deaths (213 CVD) occurred. The relative risks (RRs) and 95% CIs of all-cause mortality were 1.36 (1.14-1.62), 1.31 (1.11-1.54), and 1.26 (1.07-1.49) for the NCEP, NCEP-R, and IDF definitions, respectively. The corresponding RRs for CVD mortality were 1.79 (1.35-2.37), 1.67 (1.27-2.19), and 1.67 (1.27-2.20). Additionally, there was a significant trend for a higher risk of CVD mortality across waist circumference categories (<94, 94-102, and >102 cm) among men with at least two additional metabolic syndrome risk factors (P = 0.01). The prediction of mortality with IDF and NCEP metabolic syndrome criteria was comparable in men. Waist circumference is a valuable component of metabolic syndrome; however, the IDF requirement of an elevated waist circumference warrants caution given that a large proportion of men with normal waist circumference have multiple risk factors and an increased risk of mortality.

Metabolic syndrome among overweight and obese adults in Palestinian refugee camps.

PubMed

Damiri, Basma; Abualsoud, Mohammed S; Samara, Amjad M; Salameh, Sakhaa K

2018-01-01

Metabolic syndrome (MetS) is one of the main reasons for elevated cardiovascular morbidity and mortality worldwide. Obese and overweight individuals are at high risk of developing these chronic diseases. The aim of this study was to characterize and establish sex-adjusted prevalence of metabolic syndrome and its components. A cross-sectional study was conducted in 2015, 689 (329 men and 360 women) aged 18-65 years from three refugee camps in the West Bank. International Diabetes Federation and modified National Cholesterol Education Program-Third Adult Treatment Panel definitions were used to identify MetS. The overall prevalence of obesity and overweight was high, 63.1%; Obesity (42 and 29.2% in women men; respectively and overweight 25.8 and 28.9% in women and men; respectively. The prevalence of MetS among obese and overweight was significantly higher (69.4%) according to IDF than NCEP definition (52%) ( p  < 0.002) with no significant differences between men and women using both definitions; (IDF; 71.8% men vs. 67.6% women, and (NCEP/ATP III; 51.9% men vs. 52.2% women). The prevalence of MetS increased significantly with increasing obesity and age when NCEP criterion is applied but not IDF. The prevalence of individual MetS components was: high waist circumference 81.3% according to IDF and 56.5% according to NCEP, elevated FBS 65.3% according to IDF and 56% according to NCEP, elevated blood pressure 48%, decreased HDL 65.8%, and elevated triglycerides 31.7%. Based on gender differences, waist circumferences were significantly higher in women according to both criteria and only elevated FBS was higher in women according to IDF criteria. Physical activity was inversely associated with MetS prevalence according to NCEP but not IDF. No significant associations were found with gender, smoking, TV watching, and family history of hypertension or diabetes mellitus. In this study, irrespective of the definition used, metabolic syndrome is highly prevalent in obese and overweight Palestinian adults with no gender-based differences. The contribution of the metabolic components to the metabolic syndrome is different in men and women. With the increase of age and obesity, the clustering of metabolic syndrome components increased remarkably. More attention through health care providers should, therefore, be given to the adult population at risk to reduce adulthood obesity and subsequent cardiovascular diseases.

Household income is associated with the risk of metabolic syndrome in a sex-specific manner.

PubMed

Dallongeville, Jean; Cottel, Dominique; Ferrières, Jean; Arveiler, Dominique; Bingham, Annie; Ruidavets, Jean Bernard; Haas, Bernadette; Ducimetière, Pierre; Amouyel, Philippe

2005-02-01

To assess the relationship between household income and metabolic syndrome in men and women. A total of 1,695 men and 1,664 women, aged 35-64 years, from three distinct geographical areas of France were investigated. Waist girth, plasma triglycerides, HDL cholesterol, glucose, and systolic blood pressure were used to define metabolic syndrome according to the National Cholesterol Education Program (NCEP)/Adult Treatment Panel III (ATPIII) guidelines. Household income, educational level, occupational category, working status, consumption of psychotropic drugs, accommodation status, household composition, physical activity at work and during leisure time, alcohol consumption, and smoking habits were recorded with a standardized questionnaire. There were 390 (23.0%) men and 381 (16.9%) women who satisfied NCEP/ATPIII criteria for metabolic syndrome. Household income (P < 0.0001) and consumption of psychotropic drugs (P = 0.0005) were associated with metabolic syndrome in women but not in men. In contrast, educational level, occupational category, working status, and accommodation status were associated with metabolic syndrome in both men and women. After adjustment on lifestyle variables, household income (interaction P < 0.004) remained inversely associated with metabolic syndrome in women but not in men. These data suggest that limited household income, which reflects a complex unfavorable social and economic environment, may increase the risk of metabolic syndrome in a sex-specific manner.

Hypertriglyceridemic waist phenotype in primary health care: comparison of two cutoff points

PubMed Central

Braz, Marina Augusta Dias; Vieira, Jallyne Nunes; Gomes, Flayane Oliveira; da Silva, Priscilla Rafaella; Santos, Ohanna Thays de Medeiros; da Rocha, Ilanna Marques Gomes; de Sousa, Iasmin Matias; Fayh, Ana Paula Trussardi

2017-01-01

Objective We aimed to evaluate the prevalence of hypertriglyceridemic waist (HTGW) phenotype among users of primary health care using two different cutoff points used in the literature. Methods We evaluated adults and elderly individuals of both sexes who attended the same level of primary health care. HTGW phenotype was determined with measurements of waist circumference (WC) and triglyceride levels and compared using cutoff points proposed by the National Cholesterol Education Program – NCEP/ATP III (WC ≥102 cm for men and ≥88 cm for women; triglyceride levels ≥150 mg/dL for both sexes) and by Lemieux et al (WC ≥90 cm for men and ≥85 cm for women; triglyceride levels ≥177 mg/dL for both). Results Within the sample of 437 individuals, 73.7% was female. The prevalence of HTGW phenotype was high and statistically different with the use of different cutoff points from the literature. The prevalence was higher using the NCEP/ATP III criteria compared to those proposed by Lemieux et al (36.2% and 32.5%, respectively, p<0.05). Individuals with the presence of the phenotype also presented alterations in other traditional cardiovascular risk markers. Conclusion The HTGW phenotype identified high prevalence of cardiovascular risk in the population, with higher cutoff points from the NCEP/ATP III criteria. The difference in frequency of risk alerts us to the need to establish cutoff points for the Brazilian population. PMID:28979152

Clinical and economic outcomes in patients switched to simvastatin in a community-based family medicine practice.

PubMed

Willey, V J; Reinhold, J A; Willey, K H; Kelly, B L; Cziraky, M J

2010-08-01

The introduction of a generic formulation of simvastatin has created the potential to provide significant low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) reduction in a highly cost-effective manner. This retrospective cohort analysis utilised electronic medical record data from a United States, community-based, independent physician family medicine practice. Patients switched from other statins or statin combinations to simvastatin by the family medicine physicians during routine patient care from January 2002 to October 2008 were identified. Equivalent statin dosing, lipid panel changes and National Cholesterol Education Program--Adult Treatment Panel III (NCEP) LDL-C goal attainment rates were compared preswitch and postswitch. The potential economic impact of simvastatin switching was also evaluated. A total of 78 patients were identified, and in 76.9% of the switches, an equipotent dose of simvastatin was prescribed. All lipid fractions showed small, non-significant increases, with LDL-C having a 2.2 mg/dl (0.06 mmol/l) increase after switching (p = 0.476). NCEP LDL-C goal attainment rates were 79.5% and 78.2% before and after switching, respectively (p = 1.00). Modelled annual cost savings associated with switching were estimated at $671.99 per patient. These results demonstrate that an independent family medicine physician practice can successfully perform statin therapeutic substitution during routine patient care. Equivalent clinical outcomes with regards to changes in lipid fractions and NCEP LDL-C goal attainment were observed in conjunction with the potential for reduced costs for patients.

Conveying Global Circulation Patterns in HDTV

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gardiner, N.; Janowiak, J.; Kinzler, R.; Trakinski, V.

2006-12-01

The American Museum of Natural History has partnered with the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) to educate general audiences about weather and climate using high definition video broadcasts built from half-hourly global mosaics of infrared (IR) data from five geostationary satellites. The dataset being featured was developed by NCEP to improve precipitation estimates from microwave data that have finer spatial resolution but poorer temporal coverage. The IR data span +/-60 degrees latitude and show circulation patterns at sufficient resolution to teach informal science center visitors about both weather and climate events and concepts. Design and editorial principles for this media program have been guided by lessons learned from production and annual updates of visualizations that cover eight themes in both biological and Earth system sciences. Two formative evaluations on two dates, including interviews and written surveys of 480 museum visitors ranging in age from 13 to over 60, helped refine the design and implementation of the weather and climate program and demonstrated that viewers understood the program's initial literacy objectives, including: (1) conveying the passage of time and currency of visualized data; (2) geographic relationships inherent to atmospheric circulation patterns; and (3) the authenticity of visualized data, i.e., their origin from earth-orbiting satellites. Surveys also indicated an interest and willingness to learn more about weather and climate principles and events. Expanded literacy goals guide ongoing, biweekly production and distribution of global cloud visualization pieces that reach combined audiences of approximately 10 million. Two more rounds of evaluation are planned over the next two years to assess the effectiveness of the media program in addressing these expanded literacy goals.

6th NCEP/NWS Ensemble User Workshop

Science.gov Websites

5th Ensemble Users Workshop pdf<> Discussion Hogsett/Bright pdf Session 2: NCEP Centers Review Chair: Jun Du Israel Jirak NCEP SPC's Review pdf David Bright NCEP AWC's Review pdf Wallace Hogsett NCEP WPC's Review pdf Joseph Sienkiewicz NCEP OPC's Review pdf Dave Unger NCEP CPC's Review pdf<>

Forecasting patient outcomes in the management of hyperlipidemia.

PubMed

Brier, K L; Tornow, J J; Ries, A J; Weber, M P; Downs, J R

1999-03-22

To forecast adult patient outcomes in the management of hyperlipidemia using adult National Health and Examination Survey III (NHANES III) population statistics and National Cholesterol Education Program (NCEP) guidelines for goals of therapy. Review of the hyperlipidemia drug therapy English-language medical literature with emphasis on randomized controlled trials of more than 6 weeks' duration published in the last 7 years, product package inserts, US Food and Drug Administration submission information, and NHANES III population statistics. Data were extracted from studies of lipid-lowering therapy to modify low-density lipoprotein (LDL) levels for primary and secondary prevention of coronary heart disease. The data that were evaluated included sample size, study design, therapeutic intervention, length of study, percentage change in LDL levels, and patient demographics. Cumulative frequency curves of the LDL distribution among the US adult population were constructed. The mean efficacy of drug therapy from qualified studies was used to extrapolate the percentage of the population expected to respond to the intervention and to forecast the patient outcome. A useful tool for clinicians was constructed to approximate the percentage of patients, based on risk stratification, who would reach NCEP target goal after a given pharmacotherapeutic intervention to decrease LDL levels.

--No Title--

Science.gov Websites

Documentation (pdf) Latest statistics (comparing FNMOC raw and bias corrected ensemble forecast) Statistics For September (comparing NCEP20s, NCEP20sb, NAEFS40nb, NAEFS/NUOPC60gb) Statistics For October (comparing NCEP20s, NCEP20sb, NAEFS40nb, NAEFS/NUOPC60gb) Statistics For November (comparing NCEP20s, NCEP20sb

Risk of metabolic syndrome for stroke is not greater than the sum of its components: Thai Epidemiologic Stroke (TES) study.

PubMed

Hanchaiphiboolkul, Suchat; Suwanwela, Nijasri Charnnarong; Poungvarin, Niphon; Nidhinandana, Samart; Puthkhao, Pimchanok; Towanabut, Somchai; Tantirittisak, Tasanee; Suwantamee, Jithanorm; Samsen, Maiyadhaj

2013-11-01

Limited information is available on the association between the metabolic syndrome (MetS) and stroke. Whether or not MetS confers a risk greater than the sum of its components is controversial. This study aimed to assess the association of MetS with stroke, and to evaluate whether the risk of MetS is greater than the sum of its components. The Thai Epidemiologic Stroke (TES) study is a community-based cohort study with 19,997 participants, aged 45-80 years, recruited from the general population from 5 regions of Thailand. Baseline survey data were analyzed in cross-sectional analyses. MetS was defined according to criteria from the National Cholesterol Education Program (NCEP) Adult Treatment Panel III, the American Heart Association/National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (revised NCEP), and International Diabetes Federation (IDF). Logistic regression analysis was used to estimate association of MetS and its components with stroke. Using c statistics and the likelihood ratio test we compared the capability of discriminating participants with and without stroke of a logistic model containing all components of MetS and potential confounders and a model also including the MetS variable. We found that among the MetS components, high blood pressure and hypertriglyceridemia were independently and significantly related to stroke. MetS defined by the NCEP (odds ratio [OR], 1.64; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.32-2.04), revised NCEP (OR, 2.27; 95% CI, 1.80-2.87), and IDF definitions (OR, 1.70; 95% CI, 1.37-2.13) was significantly associated with stroke after adjustment for age, sex, geographical area, education level, occupation, smoking status, alcohol consumption, and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol. After additional adjustment for all MetS components, these associations were not significant. There were no statistically significant difference (P=.723-.901) in c statistics between the model containing all MetS components and potential confounders and the model also including the MetS variable. The likelihood ratio test also showed no statistically significant (P=.166-.718) difference between these 2 models. Our findings suggest that MetS is associated with stroke, but not to a greater degree than the sum of its components. Thus, the focus should be on identification and appropriate control of its individual components, particularly high blood pressure and hypertriglyceridemia, rather than of MetS itself. Copyright © 2013 National Stroke Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A comparison of the new international diabetes federation definition of metabolic syndrome to WHO and NCEP definitions in Chinese, European and South Asian origin adults.

PubMed

Unwin, Nigel; Bhopal, Raj; Hayes, Louise; White, Martin; Patel, Sheila; Ragoobirsingh, Dalip; Alberti, George

2007-01-01

To compare the prevalence, agreement and phenotypic characteristics in three ethnic groups of the new International Diabetes Federation (IDF) definition of metabolic syndrome (MS) to the World Health Organization (WHO) and national cholesterol education program (NCEP) definitions. Newcastle upon Tyne, England. Cross-sectional surveys. Chinese (171 men and 185 women), European (257 men and 301 women), and South Asian (264 men and 295 women) adults, ages 25 to 64 years. Anthropometric indices: blood pressure, fasting lipids, urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio, glucose intolerance, insulin resistance. IDF-defined MS was highly prevalent in all groups, ranging from 12.3% (95% CIs 7.4-17.2) in Chinese men to 45.5% (39.5-51.5) in South Asian men. In women, of all ethnic groups, more than 80% of those with WHO- or NCEP-defined MS also had IDF-defined MS. In men, however, agreement was less good. For example, in each ethnic group, more than a third of those with WHO-defined MS did not have IDF-defined MS. Within each ethnic group, the biological characteristics of those with MS by any definition were largely the same. However, differences existed between ethnic groups. For example, in those with IDF-defined MS, both South Asian men and women had significantly (P < .05) higher insulin resistance and significantly lower systolic and diastolic blood pressure than Europeans or Chinese. Agreement between the IDF and other definitions is better in women than men. The phenotype is similar within each ethnic group whatever the definition, but differs between groups suggesting that risks associated with MS differ by ethnic group.

Cardiometabolic risk in polycystic ovary syndrome: a comparison of different approaches to defining the metabolic syndrome.

PubMed

Cussons, Andrea J; Watts, Gerald F; Burke, Valerie; Shaw, Jonathan E; Zimmet, Paul Z; Stuckey, Bronwyn G A

2008-10-01

Polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) is associated with insulin resistance and features in common with the metabolic syndrome (MetS)--factors shown to predict cardiovascular risk and type 2 diabetes. We investigated the prevalence and characteristics of the MetS in PCOS by three definitions-World Health Organization (WHO), National Cholesterol Education Program Adult Treatment Panel III (NCEP-ATP-III) and International Diabetes Federation (IDF)--and compared that with the background population. Cross-sectional study of 168 women with PCOS and 883 age-matched controls from the Australian Diabetes, Obesity and Lifestyle (AusDiab) study. Prevalence of the MetS in PCOS subjects was 33% by WHO, 37% by NCEP-ATP-III and 40% by IDF criteria, compared with 10% by NCEP-ATP-III and 13% by IDF in controls (P < 0.001). MetS by WHO criteria was not calculated in the AusDiab population. Age was an independent predictor of MetS in PCOS and controls. The prevalence of MetS was significantly higher among those with PCOS (P = 0.027) in obese women (BMI > 30 kg/m(2)), and higher but not significantly so in overweight (BMI 25-30 kg/m(2)) women (P = 0.052). Dehydroepiandrosterone sulphate was associated with a lower risk of the MetS--Odds ratio 0.86 (95% confidence interval, 0.77-0.97, P = 0.011). An approximate 4-fold increase in the prevalence of the MetS in women with PCOS compared with the general population, consistent with the proposed major role of insulin and obesity in the syndrome, implies greater risk of cardiometabolic disease in women with PCOS. However, this estimate is likely to vary according to PCOS definition, ethnicity and different aetiological pathways to PCOS.

Inverse correlation between coffee consumption and prevalence of metabolic syndrome: baseline survey of the Japan Multi-Institutional Collaborative Cohort (J-MICC) Study in Tokushima, Japan.

PubMed

Takami, Hidenobu; Nakamoto, Mariko; Uemura, Hirokazu; Katsuura, Sakurako; Yamaguchi, Miwa; Hiyoshi, Mineyoshi; Sawachika, Fusakazu; Juta, Tomoya; Arisawa, Kokichi

2013-01-01

It is unclear whether consumption of coffee and green tea is associated with metabolic syndrome. This cross-sectional study enrolled 554 adults who had participated in the baseline survey of the Japan Multi-Institutional Collaborative Cohort (J-MICC) Study in Tokushima Prefecture, Japan. Consumption of coffee and green tea was assessed using a questionnaire. Metabolic syndrome was diagnosed using the criteria of the National Cholesterol Education Program Adult Treatment Panel III (NCEP ATP III) and the Japan Society for the Study of Obesity (JASSO). Logistic regression analysis was used to examine the association between consumption of coffee and green tea and prevalence of metabolic syndrome and its components. After adjustment for sex, age, and other potential confounders, greater coffee consumption was associated with a significantly lower prevalence of metabolic syndrome, as defined by NCEP ATP III criteria (P for trend = 0.03). Participants who drank more coffee had a lower odds ratio (OR) for high serum triglycerides (P for trend = 0.02), but not for increased waist circumference or high blood pressure. Using JASSO criteria, moderate coffee consumption (1.5 to <3 cups/day) was associated with a significantly lower OR for high plasma glucose (OR = 0.51, 95% CI 0.28-0.93). Green tea consumption was not associated with the prevalence of metabolic syndrome or any of its components. Coffee consumption was inversely correlated with metabolic syndrome diagnosed using NCEP ATP III criteria, mainly because it was associated with lower serum triglyceride levels. This association highlights the need for further prospective studies of the causality of these relationships.

PREVALENCE OF METABOLIC SYNDROME AMONG ADOLESCENTS IN A CITY IN THE MEDITERRANEAN AREA: COMPARISON OF TWO DEFINITIONS.

PubMed

Galera-Martínez, Rafael; García-García, Emilio; Vázquez-López, M Ángeles; Ortiz-Pérez, María; Ruiz-Sánchez, Ana Mar; Martín-González, Manuel; Garrido-Fernández, Pablo; Bonillo-Perales, Antonio

2015-08-01

there are few studies on the prevalence of metabolic syndrome (MetS) in European adolescent populations, and some have reported a higher prevalence in the Mediterranean basin area. Our objective was to examine the prevalence of MetS in adolescents in a Mediterranean city of Spain, comparing two different definitions of MetS and the associated risk factors. a cross-sectional population-based study was conducted among 379 adolescents aged 12-16.9 years, selected using a random sampling method. Anthropometric measurements and fasting blood samples were obtained. The definitions of MetS used were that of the National Cholesterol Education Program's Adult Treatment Panel III (NCEP-ATPIII) and that of the International Diabetes Federation (IDF). Kappa coefficient was used to measure the agreement between definitions and a multivariate logistic regression model to determine the associated risk factors. the prevalence of MetS was 5.7% (95%CI 3.33-8.07) according to the NCEP-ATPIII definition and 3.8% (95%CI 1.85-5.75) according to the IDF definition. No differences between the sexes or by age groups were found. The agreement between the two definitions was very good (kappa 0.815), especially in the obese subsample, but was lower in normal weight adolescents (kappa 0.497). Insulin resistance and obesity were associated with both definitions. the prevalence of MetS in our adolescent population is higher than the European media. Although the overall agreement between both definitions was very good, the prevalence was higher using the NCEP-ATPIII criteria. Independently of the definition used, obesity and insulin resistance were risk factors for MetS. Copyright AULA MEDICA EDICIONES 2014. Published by AULA MEDICA. All rights reserved.

National Centers for Environmental Prediction

Science.gov Websites

Ensemble Users Meetings 7th NCEP/NWS Ensemble User Workshop 13-15 June 2016 6th NCEP/NWS Ensemble User Workshop 25 - 27 March 2014 5th NCEP/NWS Ensemble User Workshop 10 - 12 May, 2011 4th NCEP/NWS Ensemble User Workshop 13 - 15 May, 2008 3rd NCEP/NWS Ensemble User Workshop 31 Oct - 2 Nov, 2006 2nd NCEP/NWS

Perceptions about the management of dyslipidaemia among physicians in Jamaica and Trinidad.

PubMed

Monsanto, H A; Prann, M; Quijada, J G

2007-09-01

Proper management of dyslipidaemia in patients may reduce morbidity and mortality related to coronary heart disease. To determine physician perceptions of the management of dyslipidaemia in Jamaica and Trinidad Personal interviews were conducted from March to May, 2005, by an independent research firm using a structured questionnaire. A total of 111 interviews were conducted, 61 in Jamaica and 50 in Trinidad Respondents were mostly primary care physicians (PCP) or internal medicine physicians (76.5%) and 58% were in private practice. The most important factors for prescribing a drug for dyslipidaemia were related to efficacy (76%), safety (59%) and price (36%). The majority (92%) reported using treatment guidelines. The National Cholesterol Education Program (NCEP) guidelines were the most widely mentioned by physicians but there were reports of using guidelines from other organizations and physician groups. Nearly a third of all physicians, most of whom were PCPs, had not heard of the NCEP The LDL-C level at which drug therapy should be started and the LDL-C treatment goals were higher among Jamaican physicians. Physicians are aware of the existence of treatment guidelines for dyslipidaemia. However, the source and adherence to the guidelines varies according to country and specialty. Information about the proper management of dyslipidaemia must be reinforced by professional societies and government agencies.

A Diagnosis of Rainfall over South America during the 1997/98 El Niño Event. Part I: Validation of NCEP-NCAR Reanalysis Rainfall Data.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brahmananda Rao, V.; Santo, Clóvis E.; Franchito, Sergio H.

2002-03-01

A comparison between the National Centers for Environmental Predictions-National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP-NCAR) reanalysis rainfall data and the Agência Nacional de Energia Elétrica (ANEEL) rain gauge data over Brazil is made. It is found that over northeast Brazil, NCEP-NCAR rainfall is overestimated. But over south and southeast Brazil, the correlation between the two datasets is highly significant showing the utility of NCEP-NCAR rainfall data. Over other parts of Brazil the validity of NCEP-NCAR rainfall data is questionable. A detailed comparison between NCEP-NCAR rainfall data over northwest South America and rain gauge data showed that NCEP-NCAR rainfall data are useful despite important differences between the characteristics in the two data sources. NCEP-NCAR reanalysis data seem to have difficulty in correctly reproducing the strength and orientation of the South Atlantic convergence zone.

Diversity of metabolic syndrome criteria in association with cardiovascular diseases--a family medicine-based investigation.

PubMed

Ivezić-Lalić, Dragica; Bergman Marković, Biserka; Kranjčević, Ksenija; Kern, Josipa; Vrdoljak, Davorka; Vučak, Jasna

2013-07-12

This study compared the association between the 3 definitions of metabolic syndrome (MetS) suggested by the World Health Organization (WHO), National Cholesterol Education Programme (NCEP ATP III), and International Diabetes Federation (IDF), and the risk of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) and shows the prevalence and characteristics of persons with MetS in continental vs. coastal regions and rural vs. urban residence in Croatia. A prospective multicenter study was conducted on 3245 participants≥40 years, who visited general practices from May to July 2008 for any reason. This was a cross-sectional study of the Cardiovascular Risk and Intervention Study in Croatia-family medicine project (ISRCTN31857696). All analyzed MetS definitions showed an association with CVD, but the strongest was shown by NCEP ATP III; coronary disease OR 2.48 (95% CI 1.80-3.82), cerebrovascular disease OR 2.14 (1.19-3.86), and peripheral artery disease OR 1.55 (1.04-2.32), especially for age and male sex. According to the NCEP ATP III (IDF), the prevalence was 38.7% (45.9%) [15.9% (18.6%) in men, and 22.7% (27.3%) in women, and 28.4% (33.9%) in the continental region, 10.2% (10.9%) in the coastal region, 26.2% (31.5%) in urban areas, and 12.4% (14.4%) in rural areas. Older age, male sex, and residence in the continental area were positively associated with MetS diagnosis according to NCEP ATP III, and current smoking and Mediterranean diet adherence have protective effects. The NCEP ATP III definition seems to provide the strongest association with CVD and should therefore be preferred for use in this population.

OBSERVATIONAL DATA PROCESSING AT NCEP

Science.gov Websites

operations, but also for research and study. 2. The various NCEP networks access the observational data base Statistics Observational Data Processing Data Assimilation Monsoon Desk Model Transition Seminars Seminar / VISION | About EMC Observational Data Processing at NCEP Dennis Keyser - NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC (Last Revised

National Centers for Environmental Prediction

Science.gov Websites

Mailing Lists There are two listservs for the MTT group: announce and discuss To join the listservs go here: Announce - https://lstsrv.ncep.noaa.gov/mailman/listinfo/ncep.list.emc_porting-announce Discuss - https://lstsrv.ncep.noaa.gov/mailman/listinfo/ncep.list.emc_porting-discuss To email the lists: Announce

Prevalence of the metabolic syndrome in people of Asian Indian origin: outcomes by definitions.

PubMed

Das, M; Pal, S; Ghosh, A

2011-01-01

The prevalence of the metabolic syndrome (MS) is high among south Asian Indians. In order to better comprehend the MS, its definition and modifications require region-specific cut-off values and common minimum criteria for people of Indian origin. To define the MS, the criteria as defined in the National Cholesterol Education Program (NCEP): expert panel on detection, evaluation, and treatment of high blood cholesterol in adults (Adult Treatment Panel III) (ATP III 2001), followed by the modified ATP III of 2005 were used, along with a modified version specific to the people of south Asian origin (ATP III SAS, 2009). The three definitions showed differences in prevalence of the MS among the adult Asian Indians. According to the criteria of NCEP ATP III 2001, the prevalence was found to be 32.3%. Using the modified ATP III 2005, the prevalence was 48.3%, and for south Asian-specific (SAS) ATP III, it was 31.4%. For all three definitions, females had a considerably higher prevalence of the MS than males. It was also observed that that a large number of individuals were misclassified due to lack of common minimum criteria. In order to curb the growing threat of the MS, and to aid clinical management among people of Indian origin, a more comprehensive definition of the MS is urgently required.

[Hypertriglyceridemic waist phenotype: associated factors and comparison with other cardiovascular and metabolic risk indicators in the ELSA-Brasil study].

PubMed

Freitas, Roberta Souza; Fonseca, Maria de Jesus Mendes da; Schmidt, Maria Inês; Molina, Maria Del Carmen Bisi; Almeida, Maria da Conceição Chagas de

2018-03-29

This study's objectives were to estimate the prevalence of hypertriglyceridemic waist (HTW) phenotype in participants in the Brazilian Longitudinal Study of Adult Health (ELSA-Brasil), identify associated risk factors, and compare with other cardiovascular and metabolic risk indicators. This was a cross-sectional study with baseline data from a cohort of public employees. HTW is defined as the simultaneous presence of increased waist circumference (WC) (≥ 80cm for women, ≥ 90cm for men according to the International Diabetes Federation - IDF; and ≥ 88cm for women, ≥ 102cm for men according to the U.S. National Cholesterol Education Program - NCEP) and hypertriglyceridemia. Associations between independent variables and HTW were tested with multivariate logistic regression models. HTW was also compared to other cardiovascular and metabolic risk indicators by means of correlation tests, kappa index, sensitivity, and specificity. After exclusions, 12,811 participants were analyzed. Prevalence of HTW ranged from 24.7% (IDF) to 13.3% (NCEP). HTW was associated with age, excessive alcohol consumption, former smoking, low HDL, non-high HDL, and increased C-reactive protein, independently of gender or the criterion used to define HTW. HTW was associated with cardiovascular risk indicators, especially metabolic syndrome. The high prevalence of HTW and its association with cardiovascular risk indicators, especially metabolic syndrome, supports its use as a cardiometabolic risk screening tool in clinical practice.

About NCEP

Science.gov Websites

through programs of applied research in data analysis, modeling and product development in partnership with the broader research community. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) provides official NWS ) provides analysis and forecast products, specializing in quantitative precipitation forecasts to five days

Method and Early Results of Applying the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) in the Third Global Reanalysis of NCEP

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meng, J.; Mitchell, K.; Wei, H.; Yang, R.; Kumar, S.; Geiger, J.; Xie, P.

2008-05-01

Over the past several years, the Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) of the U.S. National Weather Service has developed a Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS). For its computational infrastructure, the GLDAS applies the NASA Land Information System (LIS), developed by the Hydrological Science Branch of NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. The land model utilized in the NCEP GLDAS is the NCEP Noah Land Surface Model (Noah LSM). This presentation will 1) describe how the GLDAS component has been included in the development of NCEP's third global reanalysis (with special attention to the input sources of global precipitation), and 2) will present results from the GLDAS component of pilot tests of the new NCEP global reanalysis. Unlike NCEP's past two global reanalysis projects, this new NCEP global reanalysis includes both a global land data assimilation system (GLDAS) and a global ocean data assimilation system (GODAS). The new global reanalysis will span 30-years (1979-2008) and will include a companion realtime operational component. The atmospheric, ocean, and land states of this global reanalysis will provide the initial conditions for NCEP's 3rd- generation global coupled Climate Forecast System (CFS). NCEP is now preparing to launch a 28-year seasonal reforecast project with its new CFS, to provide the reforecast foundation for operational NCEP seasonal climate forecasts using the new CFS. Together, the new global reanalysis and companion CFS reforecasts constitute what NCEP calls the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis and Reforecast (CFSRR) project. Compared to the previous two generations of NCEP global reanalysis, the hallmark of the GLDAS component of CFSRR is GLDAS use of global analyses of observed precipitation to drive the land surface component of the reanalysis (rather than the typical reanalysis approach of using precipitation from the assimilating background atmospheric model). Specifically, the GLDAS merges two global analyses of observed precipitation produced by the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) of NCEP, as follows: 1) a new CPC daily gauge-only land-only global precipitation analysis at 0.5-degree resolution and 2) the well-known CPC CMAP global 2.0 x 2.5 degree 5-day precipitation analysis, which utilizes satellite estimates of precipitation, as well as some gauge observations. The presentation will describe how these two analyses are merged with latitude-dependent weights that favor the gauge-only analysis in mid-latitudes and the satellite-dominated CMAP analysis in tropical latitudes. Finally, we will show some impacts of using GLDAS to initialize the land states of seasonal CFS reforecasts, versus using the previous generation of NCEP global reanalysis as the source for CFS initial land states.

National Centers for Environmental Prediction

Science.gov Websites

Statistics Observational Data Processing Data Assimilation Monsoon Desk Model Transition Seminars Seminar conducts a program of research and development in support of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) operational forecasting mission for global prediction. This research and development in

Applications For Real Time NOMADS At NCEP To Disseminate NOAA's Operational Model Data Base

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alpert, J. C.; Wang, J.; Rutledge, G.

2007-05-01

A wide range of environmental information, in digital form, with metadata descriptions and supporting infrastructure is contained in the NOAA Operational Modeling Archive Distribution System (NOMADS) and its Real Time (RT) project prototype at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). NOMADS is now delivering on its goal of a seamless framework, from archival to real time data dissemination for NOAA's operational model data holdings. A process is under way to make NOMADS part of NCEP's operational production of products. A goal is to foster collaborations among the research and education communities, value added retailers, and public access for science and development. In the National Research Council's "Completing the Forecast", Recommendation 3.4 states: "NOMADS should be maintained and extended to include (a) long-term archives of the global and regional ensemble forecasting systems at their native resolution, and (b) re-forecast datasets to facilitate post-processing." As one of many participants of NOMADS, NCEP serves the operational model data base using data application protocol (Open-DAP) and other services for participants to serve their data sets and users to obtain them. Using the NCEP global ensemble data as an example, we show an Open-DAP (also known as DODS) client application that provides a request-and-fulfill mechanism for access to the complex ensemble matrix of holdings. As an example of the DAP service, we show a client application which accesses the Global or Regional Ensemble data set to produce user selected weather element event probabilities. The event probabilities are easily extended over model forecast time to show probability histograms defining the future trend of user selected events. This approach insures an efficient use of computer resources because users transmit only the data necessary for their tasks. Data sets are served by OPeN-DAP allowing commercial clients such as MATLAB or IDL as well as freeware clients such as GrADS to access the NCEP real time database. We will demonstrate how users can use NOMADS services to repackage area subsets and select levels and variables that are sent to a users selected ftp site. NOMADS can also display plots on demand for area subsets, selected levels, time series and selected variables.

NCEP ENSEMBLE PRODUCTS

Science.gov Websites

://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/GEFS/ The links to the various Forecast Plots are listed under Experimental Data on the new GEFS page. This NCEP Ensemble Home Page is a collection of experimental analysis and forecast products

Estimating the impact of adding C-reactive protein as a criterion for lipid lowering treatment in the United States.

PubMed

Woloshin, Steven; Schwartz, Lisa M; Kerin, Kevin; Welch, H Gilbert

2007-02-01

There is growing interest in using C-reactive protein (CRP) levels to help select patients for lipid lowering therapy--although this practice is not yet supported by evidence of benefit in a randomized trial. To estimate the number of Americans potentially affected if a CRP criteria were adopted as an additional indication for lipid lowering therapy. To provide context, we also determined how well current lipid lowering guidelines are being implemented. We analyzed nationally representative data to determine how many Americans age 35 and older meet current National Cholesterol Education Program (NCEP) treatment criteria (a combination of risk factors and their Framingham risk score). We then determined how many of the remaining individuals would meet criteria for treatment using 2 different CRP-based strategies: (1) narrow: treat individuals at intermediate risk (i.e., 2 or more risk factors and an estimated 10-20% risk of coronary artery disease over the next 10 years) with CRP > 3 mg/L and (2) broad: treat all individuals with CRP > 3 mg/L. Analyses are based on the 2,778 individuals participating in the 1999-2002 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey with complete data on cardiac risk factors, fasting lipid levels, CRP, and use of lipid lowering agents. The estimated number and proportion of American adults meeting NCEP criteria who take lipid-lowering drugs, and the additional number who would be eligible based on CRP testing. About 53 of the 153 million Americans aged 35 and older meet current NCEP criteria (that do not involve CRP) for lipid-lowering treatment. Sixty-five percent, however, are not currently being treated, even among those at highest risk (i.e., patients with established heart disease or its risk equivalent)-62% are untreated. Adopting the narrow and broad CRP strategies would make an additional 2.1 and 25.3 million Americans eligible for treatment, respectively. The latter strategy would make over half the adults age 35 and older eligible for lipid-lowering therapy, with most of the additionally eligible (57%) coming from the lowest NCEP heart risk category (i.e., 0-1 risk factors). There is substantial underuse of lipid lowering therapy for American adults at high risk for coronary disease. Rather than adopting CRP-based strategies, which would make millions more lower risk patients eligible for treatment (and for whom treatment benefit has not yet been demonstrated in a randomized trial), we should ensure the treatment of currently defined high-risk patients for whom the benefit of therapy is established.

NCEP/NLDAS Drought Monitoring and Prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xia, Y.; Ek, M.; Wood, E.; Luo, L.; Sheffield, J.; Lettenmaier, D.; Livneh, B.; Cosgrove, B.; Mocko, D.; Meng, J.; Wei, H.; Restrepo, P.; Schaake, J.; Mo, K.

2009-05-01

The NCEP Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) collaborated with its CPPA (Climate Prediction Program of the Americas) partners to develop a North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS, http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/nldas) to monitor and predict the drought over the Continental United States (CONUS). The realtime NLDAS drought monitor, executed daily at NCEP/EMC, including daily, weekly and monthly anomaly and percentile of six fields (soil moisture, snow water equivalent, total runoff, streamflow, evaporation, precipitation) outputted from four land surface models (Noah, Mosaic, SAC, and VIC) on a common 1/8th degree grid using common hourly land surface forcing. The non-precipitation surface forcing is derived from NCEP's retrospective and realtime North American Regional Reanalysis System (NARR). The precipitation forcing is anchored to a daily gauge-only precipitation analysis over CONUS that applies a Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) correction. This daily precipitation analysis is then temporally disaggregated to hourly precipitation amounts using radar and satellite precipitation. The NARR- based surface downward solar radiation is bias-corrected using seven years (1997-2004) of GOES satellite- derived solar radiation retrievals. The uncoupled ensemble seasonal drought prediction utilizes the following three independent approaches for generating downscaled ensemble seasonal forecasts of surface forcing: (1) Ensemble Streamflow Prediction, (2) CPC Official Seasonal Climate Outlook, and (3) NCEP CFS ensemble dynamical model prediction. For each of these three approaches, twenty ensemble members of forcing realizations are generated using a Bayesian merging algorithm developed by Princeton University. The three forcing methods are then used to drive the VIC model in seasonal prediction mode over thirteen large river basins that together span the CONUS domain. One to nine month ensemble seasonal prediction products such as air temperature, precipitation, soil moisture, snowpack, total runoff, evaporation and streamflow are derived for each forcing approach. The anomalies and percentiles of the predicted products for each approach may be used for CONUS drought prediction. This system is executed at the beginning of each month and distributes its products by the 10th of each month. The prediction products are evaluated using corresponding monitoring products for the VIC model and are compared with the prediction products from other research groups (e.g., University of Washington at Seattle, NASA Goddard) in the CONUS.

Association of gene polymorphism of the fat mass and obesity associated gene with metabolic syndrome: a retrospective cohort study in Japanese workers.

PubMed

Kawajiri, Tomoka; Osaki, Yoneatsu; Kishimoto, Takuji

2012-06-01

To investigate whether gene polymorphism of the fat mass and obesity associated gene (FTO) is associated with metabolic syndrome (MS), we used two MS criteria, the National Cholesterol Education Program-Adult Treatment panel III (NCEP-ATPIII) definition in 2003 and the Japanese definition in 2005. Subjects were respectively 859 and 865 Japanese workers at a company in Shimane Prefecture, Japan. They were non-MS individuals in 1998 and had regular health checkups between 1998 and 2006. The Cox proportional hazard regression was used to predict MS. Three SNPs in the FTO, rs9939609, rs1121980 and rs1558902, were genotyped by the TaqMan PCR assay and a retrospective study was performed. The three SNPs in the FTO were significantly associated with body mass index, and rs1121980 and rs1558902 were associated with fasting plasma glucose. MS defined by the NCEP-ATPIII definition was significantly associated with additive and dominant models of rs9939609 and rs1121980, and the dominant model of rs1558902, even after adjusting for confounding factors such as age, sex and lifestyle. MS defined by the Japanese definition was significantly associated with the additive model of rs1121980 and additive and dominant models of rs1558902 in multivariate analysis. These results suggested that FTO gene polymorphisms, rs9939609, rs1121980 and rs1558902, were associated with an increased risk of MS among Japanese workers.

Metabolic disorders and cardiovascular risk in people living with HIV/AIDS without the use of antiretroviral therapy.

PubMed

Raposo, Mariana Amaral; Armiliato, Geyza Nogueira de Almeida; Guimarães, Nathalia Sernizon; Caram, Camila Abrahão; Silveira, Raíssa Domingues de Simoni; Tupinambás, Unaí

2017-01-01

Metabolic disorders in people living with HIV/AIDS (PLH) have been described even before the introduction of antiretroviral (ARV) drugs in the treatment of HIV infection and are risk factors for cardiovascular diseases. Based on this, the purpose of this study was to assess metabolic disorders and cardiovascular risk in PLH before the initiation of antiretroviral treatment (ART). This was a cross-sectional descriptive study of 87 PLH without the use of ART, which was carried out between January and September 2012 at a specialized infectious diseases center in Minas Gerais, Brazil. The main metabolic disorders in the population were low serum levels of HDL-cholesterol, hypertriglyceridemia and abdominal obesity. Dyslipidemia was prevalent in 62.6% of the study population, whereas metabolic syndrome (MS) was prevalent in 11.5% of patients assessed by the International Diabetes Federation (IDF) criteria and 10.8% assessed by the National Cholesterol Education Program-Adult Treatment Panel (NCEP-ATPIII) criteria. Regarding cardiovascular risk, 89.7% of the population presented a low coronary risk according to the Framingham Risk Score. A greater proportion of patients diagnosed with MS presented low cardiovascular risk (80% assessed by IDF criteria and 77.8% assessed by NCEP-ATPIII criteria). Metabolic disorders in this population may be due to HIV infection or lifestyle (smoking, sedentary lifestyle and inadequate diet). The introduction of ART can enhance dyslipidemia, increasing cardiovascular risk, especially among those who have classic risks of cardiovascular disease.

FORMAT OF TROPICAL CYCLONE RECORDS ("TCVITALS")

Science.gov Websites

FORMAT OF TROPICAL CYCLONE VITAL STATISTICS RECORDS ("TCVITALS") 8-16-2007 CHARACTER(S - These appear only in records that have been processed by the NCEP tropical cyclone quality control program SYNDAT_QCTROPCY. BOLDFACE - These appear only in NHC records. 1 - Prior to 1999, report date was

Intercomparisons of Total Precipitable Water from Satellite and Other Long Term Data Sets

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chang, Fong-Chiau; Jedlovec, Gary J.; Suggs, Ronnie J.; Guillory, Anthony R.

1998-01-01

Global water vapor data sets from satellite (NVAP) and reanalysis (NCEP and DAO) are intercompared for a 5 year period (1988-1992). Global average indicates that the NCEP and DAO reanalyses are dryer than NVAP over much of the period. Spatial patterns of the NCEP/NVAP and DAO/NVAP differences show regional variations in the 60 month climatogical fields. For example, in the Eastern Pacific just south of the equator NVAP is much dryer than the NCEP and more moist than DAO. Rather large discrepancies exist in other regions as well. North Africa, Saudi Arabia, India, and Australia show that NVAP TPW values are more moist than the NCEP and DAO model analyses by 4-8 mm. In general, the NCEP and DAO exhibits a tendency to be dryer than NVAP over the tropical ocean region. Over the Americas little differences exist except over the west coast. The shapes of the differences fields over the Eastern Pacific region are significantly different between NCEP/NVAP and DAO/NVAP differences. Over South America and Central Africa, DAO TPW values are significantly higher than those of NVAP. These difference fields show monthly and seasonal variability as well. These results will be highlighted in the paper and on the poster.

Lack of chart reminder effectiveness on family medicine resident JNC-VI and NCEP III guideline knowledge and attitudes.

PubMed

Echlin, Paul S; Upshur, Ross E G; Markova, Tsveti P

2004-07-05

The literature demonstrates that medical residents and practicing physicians have an attitudinal-behavioral discordance concerning their positive attitudes towards clinical practice guidelines (CPG), and the implementation of these guidelines into clinical practice patterns. A pilot study was performed to determine if change in a previously identified CPG compliance factor (accessibility) would produce a significant increase in family medicine resident knowledge and attitude toward the guidelines. The primary study intervention involved placing a summary of the Sixth Report of the Joint National Committee on Prevention, Detection, Evaluation, and Treatment of High Blood Pressure (JNC VI) and the National Cholesterol Education Program Expert Panel on Detection, Evaluation, and Treatment of High Blood Cholesterol in Adults (NCEP III) CPGs in all patient (>18 yr.) charts for a period of three months. The JNC VI and NCEP III CPGs were also distributed to each Wayne State family medicine resident, and a copy of each CPG was placed in the preceptor's area of the involved clinics. Identical pre- and post- intervention questionnaires were administered to all residents concerning CPG knowledge and attitude. Post-intervention analysis failed to demonstrate a significant difference in CPG knowledge. A statistically significant post-intervention difference was found in only on attitude question. The barriers to CPG compliance were identified as 1) lack of CPG instruction; 2) lack of critical appraisal ability; 3) insufficient time; 4) lack of CPG accessibility; and 5) lack of faculty modeling. This study demonstrated no significant post intervention changes in CPG knowledge, and only one question that reflected attitude change. Wider resident access to dedicated clinic time, increased faculty modeling, and the implementation of an electronic record/reminder system that uses a team-based approach are compliance factors that should be considered for further investigation. The interpretation of CPG non-compliance will benefit from a causal matrix focused on physician knowledge, attitudes, and behavior. Recent findings in resident knowledge-behavior discordance may direct the future investigation of physician CPG non-compliance away from generalized barrier research, and toward the development of information that maximizes the sense of individual practitioner urgency and certainty.

American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) Class I Guidelines for the Treatment of Cholesterol to Reduce Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Risk: Implications for US Hispanics/Latinos Based on Findings From the Hispanic Community Health Study/Study of Latinos (HCHS/SOL).

PubMed

Qureshi, Waqas T; Kaplan, Robert C; Swett, Katrina; Burke, Gregory; Daviglus, Martha; Jung, Molly; Talavera, Gregory A; Chirinos, Diana A; Reina, Samantha A; Davis, Sonia; Rodriguez, Carlos J

2017-05-11

The prevalence estimates of statin eligibility among Hispanic/Latinos living in the United States under the new 2013 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) cholesterol treatment guidelines are not known. We estimated prevalence of statin eligibility under 2013 ACC/AHA and 3rd National Cholesterol Education Program Adult Treatment Panel (NCEP/ATP III) guidelines among Hispanic Community Health Study/Study of Latinos (n=16 415; mean age 41 years, 40% males) by using sampling weights calibrated to the 2010 US census. We examined the characteristics of Hispanic/Latinos treated and not treated with statins under both guidelines. We also redetermined the statin-therapy eligibility by using black risk estimates for Dominicans, Cubans, Puerto Ricans, and Central Americans. Compared with NCEP/ATP III guidelines, statin eligibility increased from 15.9% (95% CI 15.0-16.7%) to 26.9% (95% CI 25.7-28.0%) under the 2013 ACC/AHA guidelines. This was mainly driven by the ≥7.5% atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk criteria (prevalence 13.9% [95% CI 13.0-14.7%]). Of the participants eligible for statin eligibility under NCEP/ATP III and ACC/AHA guidelines, only 28.2% (95% CI 26.3-30.0%) and 20.6% (95% CI 19.4-21.9%) were taking statins, respectively. Statin-eligible participants who were not taking statins had a higher prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors compared with statin-eligible participants who were taking statins. There was no significant increase in statin eligibility when atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk was calculated by using black estimates instead of recommended white estimates (increase by 1.4%, P =0.12) for Hispanic/Latinos. The eligibility of statin therapy increased consistently across all Hispanic/Latinos subgroups under the 2013 ACC/AHA guidelines and therefore will potentially increase the number of undertreated Hispanic/Latinos in the United States. © 2017 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley.

NAEFS-2007

Science.gov Websites

the NCO PMB model changes web site for more information concerning NCEP model changes. http ://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/changes/ Thanks, Joey Carr EFFECTIVE TUE DEC 4 2007...WITH THE 1200 COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME /CONTENT CHANGES: NOAAPORT DATA: - THE NCEP GEFS ENSEMBLE PRODUCTS WHICH ARE DELIVERED TO NOAAPORT

NCEP Decoder Web Site

Science.gov Websites

: AWC CPC EMC NCO NHC OPC SPC SWPC WPC Search by city or zip code. Press enter or select the go button to submit request Local forecast by "City, St" City, St Go Search NCEP Go NCEP Quarterly Surface Analysis Product Loops Environmental Models Product Info Current Status Model Analyses &

The implementation of NEMS GFS Aerosol Component (NGAC) Version 1.0 for global dust forecasting at NOAA/NCEP

PubMed Central

Lu, Cheng-Hsuan; da Silva, Arlindo; Wang, Jun; Moorthi, Shrinivas; Chin, Mian; Colarco, Peter; Tang, Youhua; Bhattacharjee, Partha S.; Chen, Shen-Po; Chuang, Hui-Ya; Juang, Hann-Ming Henry; McQueen, Jeffery; Iredell, Mark

2018-01-01

The NOAA National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) implemented NEMS GFS Aerosol Component (NGAC) for global dust forecasting in collaboration with NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC). NGAC Version 1.0 has been providing 5 day dust forecasts at 1°×1° resolution on a global scale, once per day at 00:00 Coordinated Universal Time (UTC), since September 2012. This is the first global system capable of interactive atmosphere aerosol forecasting at NCEP. The implementation of NGAC V1.0 reflects an effective and efficient transitioning of NASA research advances to NCEP operations, paving the way for NCEP to provide global aerosol products serving a wide range of stakeholders as well as to allow the effects of aerosols on weather forecasts and climate prediction to be considered. PMID:29652411

The implementation of NEMS GFS Aerosol Component (NGAC) Version 1.0 for global dust forecasting at NOAA/NCEP.

PubMed

Lu, Cheng-Hsuan; da Silva, Arlindo; Wang, Jun; Moorthi, Shrinivas; Chin, Mian; Colarco, Peter; Tang, Youhua; Bhattacharjee, Partha S; Chen, Shen-Po; Chuang, Hui-Ya; Juang, Hann-Ming Henry; McQueen, Jeffery; Iredell, Mark

2016-01-01

The NOAA National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) implemented NEMS GFS Aerosol Component (NGAC) for global dust forecasting in collaboration with NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC). NGAC Version 1.0 has been providing 5 day dust forecasts at 1°×1° resolution on a global scale, once per day at 00:00 Coordinated Universal Time (UTC), since September 2012. This is the first global system capable of interactive atmosphere aerosol forecasting at NCEP. The implementation of NGAC V1.0 reflects an effective and efficient transitioning of NASA research advances to NCEP operations, paving the way for NCEP to provide global aerosol products serving a wide range of stakeholders as well as to allow the effects of aerosols on weather forecasts and climate prediction to be considered.

Prevalence of metabolic syndrome in Japanese-Brazilians according to specific definitions for ethnicity.

PubMed

Xavier, Natasha P; Chaim, Rita C; Gimeno, Suely G A; Ferreira, Sandra R G; Hirai, Amelia T; Padovani, Carlos R; Okoshi, Marina P; Okoshi, Katashi

2010-04-01

The American Heart Association/National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (AHA/NHLBI), revising the National Cholesterol Evaluation Program for Adult Treatment Panel III (NCEP ATP III), and the International Diabetes Federation (IDF) have proposed definitions of metabolic syndrome that take into account waist circumference thresholds according to ethnicity. In this study we estimated the prevalence of metabolic syndrome in a Japanese-Brazilian population using NCEP definitions for Westerners (NCEPwe) and Asians (NCEPas), and IDF for Japanese (IDF). A total of 650 Japanese-Brazilians living in a developed Brazilian city and aged 30-88 years were included. Metabolic syndrome prevalence according to NCEPwe, NCEPas, and IDF was, respectively, 46.5%, 56.5%, and 48.3%. Only 43.5% of subjects did not have metabolic syndrome by any of the 3 definitions, and 38.3% fulfilled metabolic syndrome criteria for all 3 definitions. Ten percent of subjects were positive for metabolic syndrome based on NCEPas and IDF, but not for NCEPwe. Because IDF requires abdominal obesity as a criterion, the frequency of subjects without metabolic syndrome according to IDF, but with metabolic syndrome by NCEPwe and NCEPas was 8.2%. Independent of the metabolic syndrome definition, Japanese-Brazilians present an elevated metabolic syndrome prevalence, which was higher when using NCEP criteria for Asians, followed by the IDF definition for Japanese.

[Metabolic syndrome: what, why, how and who?].

PubMed

Pavlić-Renar, Ivana; Poljicanin, Tamara; Metelko, Zeljko

2007-06-01

Although first knowledge on the joint onset of cardiovascular risk factors had been gained earlier, the first systematic review of this condition was made by G. Reaven in 1988 with his thesis on syndrome X, today known as the metabolic syndrome, with insulin resistance as the common denominator. Four elements have been identified: central obesity, dyslipoproteinemia (increased triglycerides, reduced HDL cholesterol), hypertension and glucose intolerance. There are two most influential definitions: one by the National Cholesterol Education Program (NCEP) and the other by the International Diabetes Federation (/IDF). NCEP requires the presence of at least three of the following factors: abdominal obesity as assessed by waist circumference >102 cm (m) or >88 cm (f), dyslipoproteinemia defined as triglyceridemia > or =1.7 mmol/L and/or HDL cholesterol <1.03 mmol/L (m); <1.29 mmol/L (f), hypertension (blood pressure > or =30/85 mmHg) and fasting glycemia > or =5.6 mmol/L (previously 6.1). IDF focuses on central obesity defined as waist circumference, taking into consideration sex and ethnic group specificities, with the presence of at least two additional factors (dyslipoproteinemia, hypertension, or increased fasting glycemia - all criteria virtually the same as in NCEP definition). Both IDF and NCEP define abdominal obesity by waist circumference, taking account of sex differences, and, in case of IDF, ethnic ones as well. The idea is to identify the simplest measure to indirectly determine the accumulation of visceral fat, which is, contrary to subcutaneous fat, a significant cardiovascular risk factor. However, waist circumference as the only criterion seems to be less specific than the waist-to-hip circumference ratio, which defines the risk more specifically and also better reflects insulin resistance. There is broad discussion as to whether the term metabolic syndrome contributes to the identification of persons at risk of cardiovascular disease better than its components, and, if so, which is the right set of components. It is being recommended that the discussion on the metabolic syndrome be limited to persons without diabetes or already diagnosed cardiovascular disease, as the primary goal for these individuals is to prevent these diseases. It has already been shown that this was possible, primarily by intensive change in lifestyle - healthy diet and exercise. In conclusion, further basic research is necessary to explain the pathophysiologic mechanisms, which might serve to develop new therapies. Moreover, epidemiological and public health aspects are extremely important in the creation of a prevention program. Preliminary results of the Croatian Health Survey (2003) indicate that the metabolic syndrome according to the IDF criteria is present even in the youngest age group, with expected age-dependent increase in both men and women. This is even an underestimate since in this survey only blood pressure and waist circumference were actually measured, and data on dislipidemia and blood glucose were based on a questionnaire. It is already obvious that a wide action with two main goals aimed primarily at the youngest population is necessary: an increase in regular physical activity and the promotion of healthy and energy-adequate diet in the population at large.

The Implementation of NEMS GFS Aerosol Component (NGAC) Version 1.0 for Global Dust Forecasting at NOAA NCEP

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lu, Cheng-Hsuan; Da Silva, Arlindo M.; Wang, Jun; Moorthi, Shrinivas; Chin, Mian; Colarco, Peter; Tang, Youhua; Bhattacharjee, Partha S.; Chen, Shen-Po; Chuang, Hui-Ya;

[New definition of metabolic syndrome: does it have the same cardiovascular risk?].

PubMed

Rodilla, E; González, C; Costa, J A; Pascual, J M

2007-02-01

The International Diabetes Federation (IDF) has recently published the new criteria for the diagnosis of metabolic syndrome. The aim of this study was to compare the clinical characteristics and cardiovascular risk of the new patients with MS compared to the previous National Cholesterol Education Program ATP III definition, its differential characteristics and cardiovascular risk. Cross sectional study in a hypertension clinic. Coronary risk was calculated (Framingham function NCEP-ATP III) and other cardiovascular markers, urinary albumin excretion (UAE in mg/24 hours) and high sensitivity C-reactive protein (CRP) were assessed. A total 2,404 patients were evaluated, 1,901 non-diabetic and 503 diabetic hypertensive subjects. The non-diabetics 726 (38.2%) had MS with the previous NCEP ATP-III definition, the number increasing sharply to 1,091 (57.4%) with the new IDF definition. The proportion did not increase in diabetics (93% vs. 92%). Concordance in the diagnosis was 78% in non-diabetics and 91% in diabetics. The new patients had a similar coronary risk (Framingham) but lower values of other cardiovascular markers: logUAE 1.00 (0.49) mg/24 hours vs. 1.06 (0.55) mg/24 hours (p = 0.003), and CRP 1.9 (2.7) mg/L vs. 2.5 (3.2) mg/L (median, interquartile range; p < 0.001). The new IDF definition of MS increases the number of patients with MS. The new patients have a similar coronary risk (Framingham) but the new parameters used to assess cardiovascular risk (UAE and CRP) were lower. The relationship of the new definition of MS and cardiovascular risk remains to be defined.

Lipid accumulation product as a marker of cardiometabolic susceptibility in women with different phenotypes of polycystic ovary syndrome.

PubMed

Božić-Antić, Ivana; Ilić, Dušan; Bjekić-Macut, Jelica; Bogavac, Tamara; Vojnović-Milutinović, Danijela; Kastratovic-Kotlica, Biljana; Milić, Nataša; Stanojlović, Olivera; Andrić, Zoran; Macut, Djuro

2016-12-01

There are limited data on cardiometabolic risk factors and the prevalence of metabolic syndrome (MetS) across the different PCOS phenotypes in Caucasian population. Lipid accumulation product (LAP) is a clinical surrogate marker that could be used for evaluation of MetS in clinical practice. The aim of the study was to analyze metabolic characteristics and the ability of LAP to predict MetS in different PCOS phenotypes. Cross-sectional clinical study analyzing 365 women with PCOS divided into four phenotypes according to the ESHRE/ASRM criteria, and 125 healthy BMI-matched controls. In all subjects, LAP was determined and MetS was diagnosed according to the National Cholesterol Education Program/Adult Treatment Panel III (NCEP-ATP III), the International Diabetes Federation (IDF) and the Joint Interim Statement (JIS) criteria. Logistic regression and ROC curve analyses were used to determine predictors of MetS in each PCOS phenotype. All analyses were performed with age and BMI adjustment. All PCOS phenotypes in comparison to controls had higher prevalence of MetS assessed by NCEP-ATP III criteria, and only classic phenotypes when IDF and JIS criteria were used. All phenotypes had the same prevalence of MetS irrespective of used definition. LAP and exhibited the highest diagnostic accuracy and was an independent predictor of MetS in all phenotypes. LAP is an independent and accurate clinical determinant of MetS in all PCOS phenotypes in our Caucasian population. All PCOS phenotypes, including non-classic ones, are metabolically challenged and with cardiovascular risk, particularly phenotype B. © 2016 European Society of Endocrinology.

Agreement Between the JCDCG, Revised NCEP-ATPIII, and IDF Definitions of Metabolic Syndrome in a Northwestern Chinese Population.

PubMed

Sun, Fei; Gao, Bin; Wang, Li; Xing, Ying; Ming, Jie; Zhou, Jie; Fu, Jianfang; Li, Xiaomiao; Xu, Shaoyong; Liu, Guocai; Ji, Qiuhe

2018-05-28

The Joint Committee for Developing Chinese Guidelines (JCDCG) introduced the Chinese definition for metabolic syndrome (MS), which has been verified in southern Chinese people but not in northwestern Chinese people. We evaluated the MS definition proposed by the JCDCG in a northwestern Chinese population, in comparison with those of the revised National Cholesterol Education Program Adult Treatment Panel III (NCEP-ATPIII) and the International Diabetes Federation (IDF). This population-based cross-sectional study was a part of the China National Diabetes and Metabolic Disorders Study conducted in Shaanxi province. We included 3243 participants aged ≥ 20 years. The age-adjusted MS prevalence was assessed per the 2007 Chinese population structure. The agreement between different definitions was assessed by the kappa statistic. The standardized prevalence of JCDCG-MS, revised ATPIII-MS, and IDF-MS was 22.4%, 29.4%, and 24.9%, respectively. Among women, the agreement of the JCDCG definition with the revised ATPIII and the IDF definition was not good (κ = 0.599 and 0.601, respectively); 54.6% of the revised ATPIII-MS and 56% of the IDF-MS were defined as MS according to the JCDCG definition. Among men, the agreement of JCDCG definition with the revised ATPIII and IDF definitions was very good (κ = 0.863) and substantial (κ = 0.741), respectively. The agreement of the JCDCG definition with the revised ATPIII and IDF definitions was insufficient in women. Compared with the other two definitions, the JCDCG definition underestimates MS prevalence in northwestern women.

The metabolic syndrome: a concept hard to define.

PubMed

Aguilar-Salinas, Carlos A; Rojas, Rosalba; Gómez-Pérez, Francisco J; Mehta, Roopa; Franco, Aurora; Olaiz, Gustavo; Rull, Juan A

2005-01-01

The metabolic syndrome integrates, in a single diagnosis, the manifestations of insulin resistance that may lead to increased cardiovascular morbidity and precedes type 2 diabetes. Here we discuss the strengths and limitations of the definitions of the metabolic syndrome and the epidemiology of the syndrome including information from non-Caucasian populations. The definitions proposed by the World Health Organization (WHO) and the National Cholesterol Education Program (NCEP) are the most frequently used. The relative risk of having long-term complications is greater for the WHO definition; this is explained by the inclusion of the insulin resistance criteria. The cut-off points used in these definitions should be, but are not, adjusted for ethnicity; as a result, in non-Caucasian subjects, there is lack of agreement among these criteria. In a Mexican population-based survey the prevalence was 13.61% using the WHO definition and 26.6% using the NCEP-III criteria. Cases identified by the WHO criteria had a more severe form of the disease. We propose that the metabolic syndrome should be viewed as a progressive long-term process that leads to major complications. Its definition should reflect the continuous nature of the disease; the categorical approach of the current criteria oversimplifies the complexity of the syndrome. The threshold for defining abnormality should be based on the associated risk of the identified phenotype. Refinement of the definition of both affected and nonaffected subjects is required. The available definitions include, in each of these categories, heterogeneous groups with a broad range of risk of future complications.

Association between serum zinc and later development of metabolic syndrome in middle aged and older men: The Kuopio Ischaemic Heart Disease Risk Factor Study.

PubMed

Yary, Teymoor; Virtanen, Jyrki K; Ruusunen, Anu; Tuomainen, Tomi-Pekka; Voutilainen, Sari

2017-05-01

The aim of this study was to investigate associations of serum zinc with incident metabolic syndrome and its components in middle-aged and older Finnish men. An 11-y prospective follow-up study conducted among 683 men from the Kuopio Ischaemic Heart Disease Risk Factor Study who were 42 to 60 y old at baseline in 1984 to 1989. The main outcome was incident metabolic syndrome, defined by the National Cholesterol Education Program (NCEP) criteria. Other outcomes were the individual components of the NCEP metabolic syndrome: Fasting blood glucose, serum triacylglycerols, serum high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol, hypertension, and waist circumference. During the average follow-up of 11 y, 139 men (20.4%) developed metabolic syndrome. Those in the highest tertile of serum zinc had 84% higher risk (95% confidence interval 12 to 201%, P trend across tertiles = 0.015) to develop metabolic syndrome compared with those in the lowest tertile, after adjustment for several potential confounders. The association between serum zinc and incident metabolic syndrome was attenuated by adjustment for waist circumference, serum HDL cholesterol, or hypertension. Serum zinc was also directly associated with higher waist circumference and hypertension and inversely associated with HDL cholesterol at the 11 y examinations. We found a direct association between serum zinc and incidence of metabolic syndrome in middle-aged and older eastern Finnish men. Further studies are warranted to explore the mechanisms. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Prevalence of the Metabolic Syndrome Among Employees in Northeast China

PubMed Central

Wang, Xin; Yang, Fang; Bots, Michiel L; Guo, Wei-Ying; Zhao, Bing; Hoes, Arno W; Vaartjes, Ilonca

2015-01-01

Background: The metabolic syndrome is a clustering of metabolic abnormalities and has been associated with increased risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus and cardiovascular disease. This study aimed to estimate the prevalence of the metabolic syndrome among employees in Northeast China. Methods: Totally, 33,149 employees who received health screening in the International Health Promotion Center in the First Hospital of Jilin University were enrolled. Height, weight, waist circumference, blood pressure, fasting plasma glucose, triglyceride, high-density lipoprotein, and low-density lipoprotein were recorded. Three definitions for the metabolic syndrome were applied, revised National Cholesterol Education Program's Adult Treatment Panel III (NCEP ATP III) criteria, the International Diabetes Federation (IDF) criteria, and the Chinese Diabetes Society (CDS) criteria. Results: Overall, the age-standardized prevalence of the metabolic syndrome was 22.9%, 20.6%, and 15.3% based on definitions of revised NCEP ATP III criteria, the IDF criteria, and the CDS criteria, respectively. Men had higher age-standardized prevalence than women in all three definitions (P < 0.05). The prevalence was 27.1%, 24.5%, and 20.4% for men; 17.1%, 15.4%, and 8.3% for women, respectively. The most common metabolic component with the metabolic syndrome was overweight (54.7% of men had an elevated body mass index, and 35.9% of women had central obesity). Conclusions: A large proportion of employees among Northeast China have the metabolic syndrome. These findings place emphasis on the need to develop aggressive lifestyle modification for patients with the metabolic syndrome and population level strategies for the prevention, detection, and treatment of cardiovascular risk. PMID:26228207

Forecasting Ocean Waves: Comparing a Physics-Based Model with Statistical Models

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-01-01

m) 46029 (135 m) 46211 (38 m) ( CDIP -036) 42039 (307 m) 42040 (165 m) 42007 (14 m) Boundary forcing from NCEP WW3 ENP 15′×15′ resolution SWAN CNW-G1...wave energy. Acronyms and abbreviations CenGOOS Central Gulf Ocean Observing System CDIP Coastal Data Information Program CNW Coastal Northwest SWAN

Estimating the Impact of Adding C-Reactive Protein as a Criterion for Lipid Lowering Treatment in the United States

PubMed Central

Schwartz, Lisa M.; Kerin, Kevin; Welch, H. Gilbert

2007-01-01

Background There is growing interest in using C-reactive protein (CRP) levels to help select patients for lipid lowering therapy—although this practice is not yet supported by evidence of benefit in a randomized trial. Objective To estimate the number of Americans potentially affected if a CRP criteria were adopted as an additional indication for lipid lowering therapy. To provide context, we also determined how well current lipid lowering guidelines are being implemented. Methods We analyzed nationally representative data to determine how many Americans age 35 and older meet current National Cholesterol Education Program (NCEP) treatment criteria (a combination of risk factors and their Framingham risk score). We then determined how many of the remaining individuals would meet criteria for treatment using 2 different CRP-based strategies: (1) narrow: treat individuals at intermediate risk (i.e., 2 or more risk factors and an estimated 10–20% risk of coronary artery disease over the next 10 years) with CRP > 3 mg/L and (2) broad: treat all individuals with CRP > 3 mg/L. Data source Analyses are based on the 2,778 individuals participating in the 1999–2002 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey with complete data on cardiac risk factors, fasting lipid levels, CRP, and use of lipid lowering agents. Main measures The estimated number and proportion of American adults meeting NCEP criteria who take lipid-lowering drugs, and the additional number who would be eligible based on CRP testing. Results About 53 of the 153 million Americans aged 35 and older meet current NCEP criteria (that do not involve CRP) for lipid-lowering treatment. Sixty-five percent, however, are not currently being treated, even among those at highest risk (i.e., patients with established heart disease or its risk equivalent)—62% are untreated. Adopting the narrow and broad CRP strategies would make an additional 2.1 and 25.3 million Americans eligible for treatment, respectively. The latter strategy would make over half the adults age 35 and older eligible for lipid-lowering therapy, with most of the additionally eligible (57%) coming from the lowest NCEP heart risk category (i.e., 0–1 risk factors). Conclusion There is substantial underuse of lipid lowering therapy for American adults at high risk for coronary disease. Rather than adopting CRP-based strategies, which would make millions more lower risk patients eligible for treatment (and for whom treatment benefit has not yet been demonstrated in a randomized trial), we should ensure the treatment of currently defined high-risk patients for whom the benefit of therapy is established. PMID:17356986

The control of dyslipidemia in outpatient clinics in Greece (OLYMPIC) Study.

PubMed

Diamantopoulos, E J; Athyros, V G; Yfanti, G K; Migdalis, E N; Elisaf, M; Vardas, P E; Manolis, A S; Karamitsos, D T; Ganotakis, E S; Hatseras, D

2005-01-01

The objective of this study was to determine the proportion of Greek patients referred to outpatient clinics for dyslipidemia who achieved the low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) goal defined by the National Cholesterol Education Program Adult Treatment Panel III (NCEP-ATP III) guidelines, using lifestyle changes, lipid-lowering drug treatment (LLDT), or both. Adult patients with dyslipidemia, who had been receiving a hypolipidemic diet and/or LLDT for at least 3 months were assessed in a multicenter study performed at 66 sites across Greece. Patients were followed up for an additional 3-month treatment period. Lipid levels were recorded at baseline and at the end of the study. The primary endpoint was the proportion of patients achieving their individual LDL-C target at the end of the study, according to their coronary heart disease (CHD) risk status or its equivalents, as defined by the NCEP-ATP III guidelines. Multivariate logistic models were used to identify determinants of undertreatment. The study included 2,660 adults (20-75 years) from 7 regions of Greece. Of the evaluable sample (n = 2,211; men 51%; mean age 62 +/-9 years) 81% were receiving LLDT (96% with statins and 3% with fibrates), 44% had a history of CHD, 61% arterial hypertension, 36% diabetes, and 26% a family history of premature CHD. Overall, 6% were at low CHD risk, 30% at medium CHD risk, and 63% at high CHD risk. At the end of the study, 26% of all patients and 30% of those receiving LLDT achieved the NCEP-specified LDL-C target levels. The percentage of patients at LDL-C goal according to CHD risk status was: low risk 67% (95% CI = 59-75), medium risk 29% (95% CI = 26-33), and high risk 20% (95% CI = 18-22). Statins proved to be more effective than fibrates (p <0.0001). Atorvastatin-treated subjects (n = 1,222, mean dose 19 mg/day) attained the LDL-C target (31% of the cases) at a higher rate than those receiving other LLDT (n = 574, 26% at target, p <0.01) or not receiving drug treatment (n = 415, 8%, p <0.001). This outcome was more evident in the high-CHD risk group (n = 1,402, 26% with atorvastatin vs 16% with other LLDT and 3% not receiving LLDT attained the LDL-C goal, ANOVA, p <0.001). The majority of dyslipidemic patients receiving LLDT, mainly those with high-CHD risk, are not achieving the NCEP LDL-C target. This is mainly explained by inadequate dose titration to ensure target goals are met. Promoting healthy lifestyle and appropriate LLDT (potent statins with sufficient dose titration) must be implemented to ensure that patients attain LDL-C treatment goals and thus benefit from the reduction in individual CHD risk.

An assessment of TropFlux and NCEP air-sea fluxes on ROMS simulations over the Bay of Bengal region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dey, Dipanjan; Sil, Sourav; Jana, Sudip; Pramanik, Saikat; Pandey, P. C.

2017-12-01

This study presents an assessment of the TropFlux and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis air-sea fluxes in simulating the surface and subsurface oceanic parameters over the Bay of Bengal (BoB) region during 2002-2014 using the Regional Ocean Modelling System (ROMS). The assessment has been made by comparing the simulated fields with in-situ and satellite observations. The simulated surface and subsurface temperatures in the TropFlux forced experiment (TropFlux-E) show better agreement with the Research Moored Array for African-Asian-Australian Monsoon Analysis (RAMA) and Argo observations than the NCEP forced experiment (NCEP-E). The BoB domain averaged sea surface temperature (SST) simulated in the NCEP-E is consistently cooler than the satellite SST, with a root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.79 °C. Moreover, NCEP-E shows a limitation in simulating the observed seasonal cycle of the SST due to substantial underestimation of the pre-monsoon SST peak. These limitations are mostly due to the lower values of the NCEP net heat flux. The seasonal and interannual variations of SST in the TropFlux-E are better comparable to the observations with correlations and skills more than 0.80 and 0.90 respectively. However, SST is overestimated during summer monsoon periods mainly due to higher net heat flux. The superiority of TropFlux forcing over the NCEP reanalysis can also be seen when simulating the interannual variabilities of the magnitude and vertical extent of Wyrtki jets at two equatorial RAMA buoy locations. The jet is weaker in the NCEP-E relative to the TropFlux-E and observations. The simulated sea surface height anomalies (SSHA) from both the experiments are able to capture the regions of positive and negative SSHA with respect to satellite-derived altimeter data with better performance in the TropFlux-E. The speed of the westward propagating Rossby wave along 18°N in the TropFlux-E is found to be about 4.7 cm/s, which is close to the theoretical phase speed of Rossby waves.

Suboptimal lipid management before and after ischaemic stroke and TIA-the North Dublin Population Stroke Study.

PubMed

Ní Chróinín, Danielle; Ní Chróinín, Chantelle; Akijian, Layan; Callaly, Elizabeth L; Hannon, Niamh; Kelly, Lisa; Marnane, Michael; Merwick, Áine; Sheehan, Órla; Horgan, Gillian; Duggan, Joseph; Kyne, Lorraine; Dolan, Eamon; Murphy, Seán; Williams, David; Kelly, Peter J

2018-01-24

Few population-based studies have assessed lipid adherence to international guidelines for primary and secondary prevention in stroke/transient ischaemic attack (TIA) patients. This study aims to evaluate adherence to lipid-lowering therapy (LLT) guidelines amongst patients with ischaemic stroke/TIA. Using hot and cold pursuit methods from multiple hospital/community sources, all stroke and TIA cases in North Dublin City were prospectively ascertained over a 1-year period. Adherence to National Cholesterol Education Programme (NCEP) III guidelines, before and after index ischaemic stroke/TIA, was assessed. Amongst 616 patients (428 ischaemic stroke, 188 TIA), total cholesterol was measured following the qualifying event in 76.5% (471/616) and low-density lipoprotein (LDL) in 60.1% (370/616). At initial stroke/TIA presentation, 54.1% (200/370) met NCEP III LDL goals. Compliance was associated with prior stroke (odds ratio [OR] 2.19, p = 0.02), diabetes (OR 1.91, p = 0.04), hypertension (OR 1.57, p = 0.03), atrial fibrillation (OR 1.78, p = 0.01), pre-event LLT (OR 2.85, p < 0.001) and higher individual LDL goal (p = 0.001). At stroke/TIA onset, 32.7% (195/596) was on LLT. Nonetheless, LDL exceeded individual NCEP goal in 29.2% (56/192); 21.6% (53/245) warranting LLT was not on treatment prior to stroke/TIA onset. After index stroke/TIA, 75.9% (422/556) was on LLT; 15.3% (30/196) meeting NCEP III criteria was not prescribed a statin as recommended. By 2 years, actuarial survival was 72.8% and 11.9% (59/497) experienced stroke recurrence. No association was observed between initial post-event target adherence and 2-year outcomes. In this population-based study, LLT recommended by international guidelines was under-used, before and after index stroke/TIA. Strategies to improve adherence are needed.

Impact of a public cholesterol screening program.

PubMed

Fischer, P M; Guinan, K H; Burke, J J; Karp, W B; Richards, J W

1990-12-01

The National Cholesterol Education Program (NCEP) has endorsed physician case finding as the primary method to detect individuals with elevated cholesterol levels. Despite this recommendation, promotional and for-profit public screening programs have flourished. We surveyed participants of a mall-based cholesterol screening program 1 year after their screening. Sixty-four percent of those screened had not previously known their cholesterol levels. Those who were newly screened were less likely to benefit from this testing than the general public, since they were older (mean age, 55.3 years), more likely to be female (67.4%), and nonsmokers (88%). Screenees had excellent recall of their cholesterol level (mean absolute reporting error, 0.24 mmol/L [9 mg/dL]) and a good understanding of cholesterol as a coronary heart disease risk. Those with elevated cholesterol levels reported high distress from screening but no reduction in overall psychosocial well-being and an actual decrease in absenteeism. Only 53.7% of all who were advised to seek follow-up because of an elevated screening value had done so within the year following the screening program. However, of those with values greater than 6.2 mmol/L (240 mg/dL), 68% had sought follow-up. Many of those who participate in public screening programs have been previously tested, fall into low-benefit groups, or fail to comply with recommended follow-up. We therefore conclude that cholesterol screening programs of the type now commonly offered are unlikely to contribute greatly to the national efforts to further reduce coronary heart disease.

Portfolio Dietary Pattern and Cardiovascular Disease: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Controlled Trials.

PubMed

Chiavaroli, Laura; Nishi, Stephanie K; Khan, Tauseef A; Braunstein, Catherine R; Glenn, Andrea J; Mejia, Sonia Blanco; Rahelić, Dario; Kahleová, Hana; Salas-Salvadó, Jordi; Jenkins, David J A; Kendall, Cyril W C; Sievenpiper, John L

2018-05-25

The evidence for the Portfolio dietary pattern, a plant-based dietary pattern that combines recognized cholesterol-lowering foods (nuts, plant protein, viscous fibre, plant sterols), has not been summarized. To update the European Association for the Study of Diabetes clinical practice guidelines for nutrition therapy, we conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of controlled trials using GRADE of the effect of the Portfolio dietary pattern on the primary therapeutic lipid target for cardiovascular disease prevention, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), and other established cardiometabolic risk factors. We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, and The Cochrane Library through April 19, 2018. We included controlled trials ≥ 3-weeks assessing the effect of the Portfolio dietary pattern on cardiometabolic risk factors compared with an energy-matched control diet free of Portfolio dietary pattern components. Two independent reviewers extracted data and assessed risk of bias. The primary outcome was LDL-C. Data were pooled using the generic inverse-variance method and expressed as mean differences (MDs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Heterogeneity was assessed (Cochran Q statistic) and quantified (I 2 -statistic). GRADE assessed the certainty of the evidence. Eligibility criteria were met by 7 trial comparisons in 439 participants with hyperlipidemia, in which the Portfolio dietary pattern was given on a background of a National Cholesterol Education Program (NCEP) Step II diet. The combination of a portfolio dietary pattern and NCEP Step II diet significantly reduced the primary outcome LDL-C by ~17% (MD, -0.73mmol/L, [95% CI, -0.89 to -0.56 mmol/L]) as well as non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, apolipoprotein B, total cholesterol, triglycerides, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, C-reactive protein, and estimated 10-year coronary heart disease (CHD) risk, compared with an NCEP Step 2 diet alone (P<0.05). There was no effect on high-density lipoprotein cholesterol or body weight. The certainty of the evidence was high for LDL-cholesterol and most lipid outcomes and moderate for all others outcomes. Current evidence demonstrates that the Portfolio dietary pattern leads to clinically meaningful improvements in LDL-C as well as other established cardiometabolic risk factors and estimated 10-year CHD risk. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Precision of a dry-chemistry method of lipid screening.

PubMed

Bowden, Rodney G; Kingery, Paul M; Long, Lindsey

2006-06-01

The purpose of this study was to compare total capillary cholesterol values acquired using the Reflotron with a venous sample taken simultaneously, to determine if the Reflotron meets the guidelines of the National Cholesterol Education Program (NCEP) for accuracy. An announcement and a registration form for a cholesterol screening programme were distributed with employee pay slips at a large southern university. Approximately 15 employees were scheduled for each screening date, with walk-ins allowed at the health assessment site as space allowed. Capillary and venous samples were collected from screening participants (n=285). Approximately 20 ml of blood was collected from each participant, after fasting for 12 h, using standardized venepuncture techniques in the antecubital vein in the bend of the elbow. In order to overcome technician error, two drops of blood (30 microl) were collected immediately from the previously drawn venous sample by drawing blood into the capillary tube from the opening in the top of the venous tube before centrifuging the venous sample, rather than 'sticking' the finger. A Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) test of normality was calculated for total capillary cholesterol (KS=1.27, P=0.79) and total venous cholesterol (KS=0.99, P=0.28), which revealed insufficient evidence that the distributions were not normal. Participants' total capillary cholesterol values averaged 213.27 mg/dl [standard deviation (SD)=44.66 mg/dl)] when analysed on the Reflotron, and slightly higher (228.86 mg/dl, SD=40.50 mg/dl) for venepuncture. A paired t-test for variance between groups revealed significant differences in total capillary and total venous cholesterol values (t=-41.93, P<0.0001). A mean centered coefficient of variation was performed, revealing a 3.3% error rate, i.e. greater than the 3% allowable by the NCEP III guidelines. The mean percent bias was -7.28% (SD=3.10%) and the absolute mean percent bias was 7.46% (SD=2.64%). The percentage of participants with total cholesterol misclassified was 16.85%. Concomitantly, Spearman correlation coefficients were high (r2=0.94, P=0.01). Although the Reflotron met most of the NCEP III guidelines for accuracy, the portable analyser provided clinically relevant underestimations of total cholesterol values, especially for the lower and upper values. Consequently, lipid values obtained using the Reflotron may be useful for screening, but the Reflotron should not be used as a diagnostic and management tool.

The NCEP Mission

Science.gov Websites

code. Press enter or select the go button to submit request Local forecast by "City, St" City , St Go Search NCEP Go Current Hazards Watches/Warnings Outlooks National Current Conditions

2013 ACC/AHA Cholesterol Guideline Versus 2004 NCEP ATP III Guideline in the Prediction of Coronary Artery Calcification Progression in a Korean Population.

PubMed

Cho, Yun Kyung; Jung, Chang Hee; Kang, Yu Mi; Hwang, Jenie Yoonoo; Kim, Eun Hee; Yang, Dong Hyun; Kang, Joon-Won; Park, Joong-Yeol; Kim, Hong-Kyu; Lee, Woo Je

2016-08-19

Since the release of the 2013 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) guidelines, significant controversy has surrounded the applicability of the new cholesterol guidelines and the Pooled Cohort Equations. In this present study, we investigated whether eligibility for statin therapy determined by the 2013 ACC/AHA guidelines on the management of blood cholesterol is better aligned with the progression of coronary artery calcification (CAC) detected by coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA) than the previously recommended 2004 National Cholesterol Education Program (NCEP) Adult Treatment Panel (ATP) III guidelines. We enrolled 1246 asymptomatic participants who underwent repeated CAC score measurement during routine health examinations. The CAC score progression was defined as either incident CAC in a population free of CAC at baseline or increase ≥2.5 units between the baseline and final square root of CAC scores participants who had detectable CAC at baseline examination. Application of the ACC/AHA guidelines to the study population increased the proportion of statin-eligible subjects from 20.5% (according to ATP III) to 54.7%. Statin-eligible subjects, as defined by ACC/AHA guidelines, showed a higher odds ratio for CAC score progression than those considered statin eligible according to ATP III guidelines (2.73 [95% CI, 2.07-3.61] vs 2.00 [95% CI, 1.49-2.68]). Compared with the ATP III guidelines, the new ACC/AHA guidelines result in better discrimination of subjects with cardiovascular risk detected by CAC score progression in an Asian population. © 2016 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley Blackwell.

[Cardiovascular risk by Framingham and SCORE in patients 40-65 years old].

PubMed

González, Carmen; Rodilla, Enrique; Costa, José A; Justicia, Jorge; Pascual, José M

2006-04-15

The aim of this study was to compare the clinical and treatment implications of 2 cardiovascular risk stratification systems in a population of patients 40-65 years old. 929 non diabetic patients (40-65 years old) (51% female) with no evidence of previous cardiovascular disease were included in the study. The risk of cardiovascular death was assessed with the charts of the Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE), and coronary risk by the Framingham function (National Cholesterol Education Program Expert Panel on Detection, Evaluation and Treatment of High Blood Cholesterol in Adults -NCEP-ATP-III-). Patients were considered of high risk if risk of cardiovascular death was >or= 5% and coronary risk was > 20%, respectively. 4.1% of patients were considered as high risk by SCORE and 2.5% by Framingham. Only 0.2% of females were classified as high risk with either system. 8.2% and 4.8% of male population were considered as high risk by SCORE and Framingham, respectively. There was a low level of concordance between both systems. Patients classified as high risk by SCORE but not by Framingham were older, smoke less and had a better lipid profile. According to European Guidelines 28% of male and 23% of female were candidates to hypolipemic treatment, that proportion was higher, 43% of males and 28% of females, by NCEP-ATP-III guidelines. In Spanish patients 40-65 years old, SCORE charts almost duplicate the number of high risk individuals compared to Framingham. although the number of patients candidates to hypolipemic treatment is lower with the European than ATP-III guidelines. Differences were more evident in male.

Is a unified definition of metabolic syndrome needed? Comparison of three definitions of metabolic syndrome in 60-year-old men and women.

PubMed

Carlsson, Axel C; Wändell, Per E; Halldin, Mats; de Faire, Ulf; Hellénius, Mai-Lis

2009-06-01

There are three commonly used definitions of the metabolic syndrome, making scientific studies hard to compare. The aim of this study was to investigate agreement in the prevalence of the metabolic syndrome defined by three different definitions and to analyze definition and gender differences. A population-based, cross-sectional study of a total of 4232 participants--2039 men and 2193 women, aged 60 years--was employed. Three different metabolic syndrome definitions were compared: European Group for the Study of Insulin Resistance (EGIR), International Diabetes Federation (IDF), and National Cholesterol Education Program Adult Treatment Panel III (NCEP ATP III). Medical history, socioeconomic information, and lifestyle data were collected by a questionnaire. A medical examination including laboratory tests was performed. Significant factors for the metabolic syndrome were calculated by multivariate logistic regression. Forty five percent of men and 30% of women met the criteria for the metabolic syndrome by any definition, but only 17% of men and 9% of women met the criteria of all three definitions. The highest agreement was found between IDF and NCEP ATP III definition. Two significant associations were identified in both men and women by the three metabolic syndrome definitions; former smokers were highly associated with the metabolic syndrome (odds ratio [OR] congruent with 1.5), and regular physical activity (OR congruent with 0.6) was inversely associated with the metabolic syndrome. Depending on the definition used, different individuals were identified as having the metabolic syndrome, which affects the reliability of interpretations to be made from scientific studies of the metabolic syndrome. Unified criteria are warranted. Physicians facing a physically inactive former smoker may consider diagnosing metabolic syndrome.

Mealtime habits and risk of developing the metabolic syndrome or insulin resistance among Mexican adults.

PubMed

Méndez-Hernández, Pablo; Dosamantes-Carrasco, Libia Darina; Siani, Carole; Pierlot, Romain; Martínez-Gómez, Margarita; Rivera-Paredez, Berenice; Cervantes-Popoca, Laura; Rojas-Lima, Elodia; Salazar-Martínez, Eduardo; Flores, Yvonne N; Salmerón, Jorge

2016-11-15

Meals are an important source of food intake, contributing to body weight and health status. Previous studies have examined the relationship between isolated mealtime behaviours and the metabolic syndrome (MetS). The aim of this study was to examine the influence over time of ten interrelated mealtime habits on the risk of developing the MetS and insulin resistance (IR) among Mexican adults. We conducted a prospective cohort study with a sample of 956 health workers. The Mealtime Habits Quality (MHQ) scale is based on four mealtime situations (availability of time to eat, distractions while eating, environmental and social context of eating, and familiar or cultural eating habits), which were used to assess the participants' MHQ at the baseline (2004-2006) and follow-up (2010-2012) evaluations. The MetS was assessed using criteria from the National Cholesterol Education Program Adult Treatment Panel III (NCEP-ATP III) and the International Diabetes Federation (IDF). IR was defined using the homoeostasis model assessment. Crude and adjusted relative risks were calculated to estimate the relationship between MHQ and the risk of developing the MetS or IR. Participants classified in the lower MHQ category had an 8·8 (95 % CI 3·1, 25) and 11·1 (95 % CI 3·4, 36·1) times greater risk of developing the MetS (using the NCEP-ATP III and IDF criteria, respectively), and an 11·2 times (95 % CI 3·9, 31·5) greater likelihood of developing IR, compared with those in the higher MHQ group. This prospective study reveals that individuals who engaged in more undesirable than recommended mealtime behaviours had a >10-fold risk of developing the MetS or IR.

Postmenopausal vegetarians' low serum ferritin level may reduce the risk for metabolic syndrome.

PubMed

Kim, Mi-Hyun; Bae, Yun Jung

2012-10-01

The present study was conducted to compare the serum ferritin status between the postmenopausal vegetarians and non-vegetarians and to identify the relation of serum ferritin with metabolic syndrome (MetS) risk factors in postmenopausal women. The two study groups consisted of postmenopausal vegetarians (n=59) who maintained a vegetarian diet for over 20 years and age-matched non-vegetarian controls (n=48). Anthropometric measurements, dietary intakes, serum metabolic syndrome-related parameters, and serum ferritin level between the two groups were compared. The vegetarians exhibited significantly lower weight (p<0.01), body mass index (BMI) (p<0.001), percentage of body fat (p<0.001), waist circumference (p<0.01), SBP (p<0.001), DBP (p<0.001), and fasting glucose (p<0.05). According to the National Cholesterol Education Program (NCEP)-Adult Treatment Panel III criteria for MetS applying Korean guidelines for waist circumference, the prevalence of MetS was lower in vegetarians (33.9 %) than in non-vegetarians (47.9 %). Vegetarians had significantly lower serum level of ferritin (p<0.01) than non-vegetarians. In the correlation analysis, serum ferritin was positively related to fasting glucose (r=0.264, p<0.01), triglycerides (r=0.232, p<0.05), and the NCEP score (r=0.214, p<0.05) and negatively related to high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol (r=-0.225, p<0.05) after adjusting for BMI, lifestyle, and dietary factors (animal protein, animal fat, and dietary fiber intake). In conclusion, postmenopausal vegetarians had lower MetS presence and a lower serum ferritin level compared to non-vegetarians. Furthermore, vegetarians' low serum ferritin level may reduce the risk of MetS in postmenopausal women.

A functional nonsynonymous toll-like receptor 4 gene polymorphism is associated with metabolic syndrome, surrogates of insulin resistance, and syndromes of lipid accumulation.

PubMed

Steinhardt, Alberto Penas; Aranguren, Florencia; Tellechea, Mariana L; Gómez Rosso, Leonardo A; Brites, Fernando D; Martínez-Larrad, Maria T; Serrano-Ríos, Manuel; Frechtel, Gustavo D; Taverna, Mariano J

2010-05-01

Toll-like receptor 4 (TLR4) plays a key role in the activation of innate immune responses. Loss-of-function mutations in TLR4 prevent diet-induced obesity and insulin resistance (IR). We conducted a population cross-sectional study to evaluate whether Asp299Gly (rs4986790) TLR4 gene polymorphism is associated with metabolic syndrome (MS), surrogates of IR, and syndromes of lipid accumulation (SLAs) in Argentinean healthy male subjects. rs4986790 was genotyped in 621 healthy unrelated male blood donors. National Cholesterol Education Program/Adult Treatment Panel III-MS (NCEP/ATP III-MS); SLAs such as enlarged waist elevated triglyceride syndrome (EWET), hypertriglyceridemic waist (HW), and overweight-lipid syndrome (OLS); and surrogates of IR were assessed. The prevalence of MS, OLS, and EWET was significantly higher among Asp299Asp carriers (P < .05). These findings were confirmed using 32 000 bootstrap samples. Surrogate markers of IR were also significantly higher in Asp299Asp carriers (P < .05). Most findings were especially strengthened among individuals with C-reactive protein below the 95th percentile and/or total cholesterol to high-density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio >or=5. This is the first report to find, in Argentinean healthy male blood donors, associations between the Asp299Asp genotype of rs4986790 TLR4 gene polymorphism and high risk for NCEP/ATP III-MS, SLAs, and surrogates of IR. These findings are consistent with previous functional and observational studies showing that Asp299 allele, in comparison with Gly299, is associated with increased TLR4 activation, higher levels of inflammatory cytokines, acute-phase reactants and soluble adhesion molecules, and higher risk of atherosclerosis.

Basal C-peptide Level as a Surrogate Marker of Subclinical Atherosclerosis in Type 2 Diabetic Patients

PubMed Central

Kim, Sung-Tae; Kim, Byung-Joon; Song, In-Geol; Jung, Jang-Han; Lee, Kang-Woo; Park, Keun-Young; Cho, Youn-Zoo; Lee, Dae-Ho; Koh, Gwan-Pyo

2011-01-01

Background Recent studies have revealed that C-peptide induces smooth muscle cell proliferation and causes human atherosclerotic lesions in diabetic patients. The present study was designed to examine whether the basal C-peptide levels correlate with cardiovascular risk in type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) patients. Methods Data was obtained from 467 patients with T2DM from two institutions who were followed for four years. The medical findings of all patients were reviewed, and patients with creatinine >1.4 mg/dL, any inflammation or infection, hepatitis, or type 1 DM were excluded. The relationships between basal C-peptide and other clinical values were statistically analyzed. Results A simple correlation was found between basal C-peptide and components of metabolic syndrome (MS). Statistically basal C-peptide levels were significantly higher than the three different MS criteria used in the present study, the Adult Treatment Panel III (ATP III) of the National Cholesterol Education Program's (NCEP's), World Health Organization (WHO), and the International Diabetes Federation (IDF) criteria (NCEP-ATP III, P=0.001; IDF, P<0.001; WHO, P=0.029). The multiple regression analysis between intima-media thickness (IMT) and clinical values showed that basal C-peptide significantly correlated with IMT (P=0.043), while the analysis between the 10-year coronary heart disease risk by the United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study risk engine and clinical values showed that basal C-peptide did not correlate with IMT (P=0.226). Conclusion Basal C-peptide is related to cardiovascular predictors (IMT) of T2DM, suggesting that basal C-peptide does provide a further indication of cardiovascular disease. PMID:21537412

Breast-fed infants and their later cardiovascular health: a prospective study from birth to age 32 years.

PubMed

Pirilä, Satu; Taskinen, Mervi; Viljakainen, Heli; Mäkitie, Outi; Kajosaari, Merja; Saarinen-Pihkala, Ulla M; Turanlahti, Maila

2014-03-28

The aim of the present study was to evaluate the impact of infant breast-feeding on cardiovascular risk in young adults. This unique study group involved 158 subjects (eighty-two females) originally collected prospectively at birth in 1975 and followed up to the age of 32 years. Frequent visits during the first year guaranteed the knowledge of the precise duration of breast-feeding. All infants received at least some breast milk. Participants were assessed for both individual cardiovascular risk factors (blood pressure, plasma lipids, homeostatic model assessment of insulin resistance and waist circumference) and the general clinical risk of cardiovascular events by calculating the Framingham risk score (FRS) and the metabolic syndrome criteria score (NCEP-ATPIII; National Cholesterol Education Program's Adult Treatment Panel III). Data on lifestyle factors were carefully collected. Linear regression analyses revealed that the effect of the duration of breast-feeding was not relevant (0·02 decrease in the FRS per one additional breast-feeding month; 95 % CI - 0·19, 0·09). Similarly, the effect of breast-feeding was minor on all of the individual cardiovascular risk factors. We used sex, physical activity, dietary fat and vitamin C, smoking and alcohol consumption as covariates. Again, logistic regression analyses detected no significant impact of the duration of breast-feeding on the risk of the metabolic syndrome according to the NCEP-ATPIII (OR 0·95, 95 % CI 0·8, 1·1). The strongest independent predictor for later CVD risk was male sex. In conclusion, in this prospectively followed cohort of young adults born at term and at weight appropriate for gestational age, the duration of breast-feeding did not have an impact on the accumulation of cardiovascular risk factors.

Prevalence of the Metabolic Syndrome in Latin America and its association with sub-clinical carotid atherosclerosis: the CARMELA cross sectional study

PubMed Central

Escobedo, Jorge; Schargrodsky, Herman; Champagne, Beatriz; Silva, Honorio; Boissonnet, Carlos P; Vinueza, Raul; Torres, Marta; Hernandez, Rafael; Wilson, Elinor

2009-01-01

Background Metabolic syndrome increases cardiovascular risk. Limited information on its prevalence in Latin America is available. The Cardiovascular Risk Factor Multiple Evaluation in Latin America (CARMELA) study included assessment of metabolic syndrome in 7 urban Latin American populations. Methods CARMELA was a cross-sectional, population-based, observational study conducted in Barquisimeto, Venezuela; Bogota, Colombia; Buenos Aires, Argentina; Lima, Peru; Mexico City, Mexico; Quito, Ecuador; and Santiago, Chile. The prevalence of metabolic syndrome, defined according to the National Cholesterol Education Program Adult Treatment Panel III (NCEP ATP III), and associated carotid atherosclerosis were investigated in 11,502 participants aged 25 to 64 years. Results Across CARMELA cities, metabolic syndrome was most prevalent in Mexico City (27%) and Barquisimeto (26%), followed by Santiago (21%), Bogota (20%), Lima (18%), Buenos Aires (17%), and Quito (14%). In nondiabetic participants, prevalence was slightly lower but followed a comparable ranking. Overall, 59%, 59%, and 73% of women with high triglycerides, hypertension, or glucose abnormalities, respectively, and 64%, 48% and 71% of men with abdominal obesity, hypertension, or glucose abnormalities, respectively, had the full metabolic syndrome. Prevalence of metabolic syndrome increased with age, markedly so in women. Mean common carotid artery intima-media thickness (CCAIMT) and prevalence of carotid plaque increased steeply with increasing numbers of metabolic syndrome components; mean CCAIMT was higher and plaque more prevalent in participants with metabolic syndrome than without. Conclusion The prevalence of metabolic syndrome and its components by NCEP ATP III criteria was substantial across cities, ranging from 14% to 27%. CARMELA findings, including evidence of the association of metabolic syndrome and carotid atherosclerosis, should inform appropriate clinical and public health interventions. PMID:19781089

Application of Observed Precipitation in NCEP Global and Regional Data Assimilation Systems, Including Reanalysis and Land Data Assimilation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mitchell, K. E.

2006-12-01

The Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) applies several different analyses of observed precipitation in both the data assimilation and validation components of NCEP's global and regional numerical weather and climate prediction/analysis systems (including in NCEP global and regional reanalysis). This invited talk will survey these data assimilation and validation applications and methodologies, as well as the temporal frequency, spatial domains, spatial resolution, data sources, data density and data quality control in the precipitation analyses that are applied. Some of the precipitation analyses applied by EMC are produced by NCEP's Climate Prediction Center (CPC), while others are produced by the River Forecast Centers (RFCs) of the National Weather Service (NWS), or by automated algorithms of the NWS WSR-88D Radar Product Generator (RPG). Depending on the specific type of application in data assimilation or model forecast validation, the temporal resolution of the precipitation analyses may be hourly, daily, or pentad (5-day) and the domain may be global, continental U.S. (CONUS), or Mexico. The data sources for precipitation include ground-based gauge observations, radar-based estimates, and satellite-based estimates. The precipitation analyses over the CONUS are analyses of either hourly, daily or monthly totals of precipitation, and they are of two distinct types: gauge-only or primarily radar-estimated. The gauge-only CONUS analysis of daily precipitation utilizes an orographic-adjustment technique (based on the well-known PRISM precipitation climatology of Oregon State University) developed by the NWS Office of Hydrologic Development (OHD). The primary NCEP global precipitation analysis is the pentad CPC Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP), which blends both gauge observations and satellite estimates. The presentation will include a brief comparison between the CMAP analysis and other global precipitation analyses by other institutions. Other global precipitation analyses produced by other methodologies are also used by EMC in certain applications, such as CPC's well-known satellite-IR based technique known as "GPI", and satellite-microwave based estimates from NESDIS or NASA. Finally, the presentation will cover the three assimilation methods used by EMC to assimilate precipitation data, including 1) 3D-VAR variational assimilation in NCEP's Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS), 2) direct insertion of precipitation-inferred vertical latent heating profiles in NCEP's N. American Data Assimilation System (NDAS) and its N. American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) counterpart, and 3) direct use of observed precipitation to drive the Noah land model component of NCEP's Global and N. American Land Data Assimilation Systems (GLDAS and NLDAS). In the applications of precipitation analyses in data assimilation at NCEP, the analyses are temporally disaggregated to hourly or less using time-weights calculated from A) either radar-based estimates or an analysis of hourly gauge-observations for the CONUS-domain daily precipitation analyses, or B) global model forecasts of 6-hourly precipitation (followed by linear interpolation to hourly or less) for the global CMAP precipitation analysis.

Designing Collaborative Developmental Standards by Refactoring of the Earth Science Models, Libraries, Workflows and Frameworks.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mirvis, E.; Iredell, M.

2015-12-01

The operational (OPS) NOAA National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) suite, traditionally, consist of a large set of multi- scale HPC models, workflows, scripts, tools and utilities, which are very much depending on the variety of the additional components. Namely, this suite utilizes a unique collection of the in-house developed 20+ shared libraries (NCEPLIBS), certain versions of the 3-rd party libraries (like netcdf, HDF, ESMF, jasper, xml etc.), HPC workflow tool within dedicated (sometimes even vendors' customized) HPC system homogeneous environment. This domain and site specific, accompanied with NCEP's product- driven large scale real-time data operations complicates NCEP collaborative development tremendously by reducing chances to replicate this OPS environment anywhere else. The NOAA/NCEP's Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) missions to develop and improve numerical weather, climate, hydrological and ocean prediction through the partnership with the research community. Realizing said difficulties, lately, EMC has been taken an innovative approach to improve flexibility of the HPC environment by building the elements and a foundation for NCEP OPS functionally equivalent environment (FEE), which can be used to ease the external interface constructs as well. Aiming to reduce turnaround time of the community code enhancements via Research-to-Operations (R2O) cycle, EMC developed and deployed several project sub-set standards that already paved the road to NCEP OPS implementation standards. In this topic we will discuss the EMC FEE for O2R requirements and approaches in collaborative standardization, including NCEPLIBS FEE and models code version control paired with the models' derived customized HPC modules and FEE footprints. We will share NCEP/EMC experience and potential in the refactoring of EMC development processes, legacy codes and in securing model source code quality standards by using combination of the Eclipse IDE, integrated with the reverse engineering tools/APIs. We will also inform on collaborative efforts in the restructuring of the NOAA Environmental Modeling System (NEMS) - the multi- model and coupling framework, and transitioning FEE verification methodology.

Centralized pan-Middle East Survey on the undertreatment of hypercholesterolemia: results from the CEPHEUS study in Arabian Gulf countries.

PubMed

Arafah, Mohamed; Al-Hinai, Ali T; Al Mahmeed, Wael; Al-Rasadi, Khalid; Al Tamimi, Omer; Al Herz, Shorook; Al Anazi, Faisal; Al Nemer, Khalid; Metwally, Othman; Alkhadra, Akram; Fakhry, Mohammed; Elghetany, Hossam; Medani, Abdel Razak; Yusufali, Afzal Hussein; Al Jassim, Obaid; Al Hallaq, Omar; Baslaib, Fahad Omar Ahmed S; Alawadhi, Mahmoud; Amin, Haitham; Al-Hashmi, Khamis; Shehab, Abdullah

2014-11-01

The Centralized pan-Middle East Survey on the undertreatment of hypercholesterolemia (CEPHEUS) survey evaluated the attainment of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) goals among patients on lipid-lowering drugs (LLDs) according to the updated National Cholesterol Education Program (NCEP)-Adult Treatment Panel (ATP-III) guideline. The survey was conducted in 6 Arabian Gulf countries. Patients aged ≥18 years on LLDs for at least ≥3 months (stable medication for ≥6 weeks) were recruited. Fasting blood samples were collected at a single visit. In this survey, 5276 (58.2% male) patients were included in the final analysis. The LDL-C goal was attained in 91.1% of low-risk, 52.7% of high-risk, and 32.0% in very-high-risk categories. Goal attainment was directly related to female gender, age<40 years, history of diabetes, and family history of cardiovascular disease. The results of this survey highlight the suboptimal management of hypercholesterolemia across Arabian Gulf countries. © The Author(s) 2013.

Global water vapor variability and trend from the latest 36 year (1979 to 2014) data of ECMWF and NCEP reanalyses, radiosonde, GPS, and microwave satellite

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Biyan; Liu, Zhizhao

2016-10-01

The variability and trend in global precipitable water vapor (PWV) from 1979 to 2014 are analyzed using the PWV data sets from the ERA-Interim reanalysis of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), reanalysis of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), radiosonde, Global Positioning System (GPS), and microwave satellite observations. PWV data from the ECMWF and NCEP have been evaluated by radiosonde, GPS, and microwave satellite observations, showing that ECMWF has higher accuracy than NCEP. Over the oceans, ECMWF has a much better agreement with the microwave satellite than NCEP. An upward trend in the global PWV is evident in all the five PWV data sets over three study periods: 1979-2014, 1992-2014, and 2000-2014. Positive global PWV trends, defined as percentage normalized by annual average, of 0.61 ± 0.33% decade-1, 0.57 ± 0.28% decade-1, and 0.17 ± 0.35% decade-1, have been derived from the NCEP, radiosonde, and ECMWF, respectively, for the period 1979-2014. It is found that ECMWF overestimates the PWV over the ocean prior to 1992. Thus, two more periods, 1992-2014 and 2000-2014, are studied. Increasing PWV trends are observed from all the five data sets in the two periods: 1992-2014 and 2000-2014. The linear relationship between PWV and surface temperature is positive over most oceans and the polar region. Steep positive/negative regression slopes are generally found in regions where large regional moisture flux divergence/convergence occurs.

NCEP HYSPLIT SMOKE & DUST Verification. NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC

Science.gov Websites

April May June July August Summer September October November December Prod vs Para Summer 2013 CA/MX Hawaii All regions PROD run All regions PARA run Select averaged hour: 1 hr average Select forecast four

EMC: Verification

Science.gov Websites

, GFS, RAP, HRRR, HIRESW, SREF mean, International Global Models, HPC analysis Precipitation Skill Scores : 1995-Present NAM, GFS, NAM CONUS nest, International Models EMC Forecast Verfication Stats: NAM ) Real Time Verification of NCEP Operational Models against observations Real Time Verification of NCEP

Gender-dependent associations between socioeconomic status and metabolic syndrome: a cross-sectional study in the adult Saudi population.

PubMed

Al-Daghri, Nasser M; Alkharfy, Khalid M; Al-Attas, Omar S; Khan, Nasiruddin; Alfawaz, Hanan A; Alghanim, Saad A; Al-Yousef, Mansour A; Al-Ajlan, Abdulrahman S M; Alokail, Majed S

2014-04-14

To determine the gender-dependent association of socio-economic status variables with the prevalence of metabolic syndrome (MetS) in the adult Saudi population. A total of 9164 adult Saudis (aged 18-70 years) were included in this cross-sectional study. Marital status, income, education, and occupation were used as socio-economic indicators while behavioral factor like physical exercise was also taken into account. MetS was defined using the criteria based from the National Cholesterol Education Program Adult Treatment Panel III (NCEP-ATP III). In males, the odds ratio (OR) of harboring MetS was higher in married [OR1.6 (Confidence Interval (CI) 1.1, 2.4); p < 0.03], and high income class [OR 2.3(CI 1.5, 3.5); p < 0.001] and lowest in retired and unemployed individuals [1.4(1.0, 1.9); p < 0.04, 0.61(0.45, 0.82); p < 0.001] respectively. In females, MetS was inversely related to high income [OR 0.70 (CI 0.46, 1.1); p < 0.09] and education level [OR 0.38 (CI 0.26, 0.56); p < 0.001], and was significantly higher in the unemployed class [OR 1.6 (CI 1.2, 2.2); p < 0.004]. The prevalence of MetS is significantly high among retired, married and high-earning Saudi males while in females, high earners and high education seem to confer a protective effect against MetS.

Journal Holdings - Betty Petersen Memorial Library

Science.gov Websites

Resources NCEP Office Notes IT Resources Request an item* University of Maryland Research Affiliate Contact for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) NESDIS Center for Satellite Applications & Research (STAR (1949 - 1985) Series B (1948 - 1986) Arctic and Alpine Research Electronic version available through

Betty Petersen Memorial Library - NCWCP Publications - NWS

Science.gov Websites

Resources NCEP Office Notes IT Resources Request an item* University of Maryland Research Affiliate Contact for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) NESDIS Center for Satellite Applications & Research (STAR . Evaluating Numerical Model Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (.PDF file) 368 1990 Gerald V. OPC Unified

NCEP Air Quality Forecast(AQF) Verification. NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC

Science.gov Websites

Southwest Desert All regions PROD All regions PARA Select averaged hour: 8 hr sfc average 1 hr sfc average Select forecast four: Diurnal period 01-24 hr by day 25-48 hr by day Select statistic type: BIAS RMSE

Betty Petersen Memorial Library - NCWCP Publications - NWS

Science.gov Websites

Resources NCEP Office Notes IT Resources Request an item* University of Maryland Research Affiliate Contact for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) NESDIS Center for Satellite Applications & Research (STAR : Justifying new Arctic Observation Capabilities (.PDF file) 474 2013 Purser, R. James Comparative

NCEP Global Aerosols Forecast. NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC

Science.gov Websites

Documentations Select Domain Global Regional Year: 2016 2017 2018 Month: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct 31 Select Field: Total AOD Total AOD Dust AOD Sea salt AOD Black carbon AOD POM AOD Sulfate AOD Get

Use of statistically and dynamically downscaled atmospheric model output for hydrologic simulations in three mountainous basins in the western United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hay, L.E.; Clark, M.P.

2003-01-01

This paper examines the hydrologic model performance in three snowmelt-dominated basins in the western United States to dynamically- and statistically downscaled output from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research Reanalysis (NCEP). Runoff produced using a distributed hydrologic model is compared using daily precipitation and maximum and minimum temperature timeseries derived from the following sources: (1) NCEP output (horizontal grid spacing of approximately 210 km); (2) dynamically downscaled (DDS) NCEP output using a Regional Climate Model (RegCM2, horizontal grid spacing of approximately 52 km); (3) statistically downscaled (SDS) NCEP output; (4) spatially averaged measured data used to calibrate the hydrologic model (Best-Sta) and (5) spatially averaged measured data derived from stations located within the area of the RegCM2 model output used for each basin, but excluding Best-Sta set (All-Sta). In all three basins the SDS-based simulations of daily runoff were as good as runoff produced using the Best-Sta timeseries. The NCEP, DDS, and All-Sta timeseries were able to capture the gross aspects of the seasonal cycles of precipitation and temperature. However, in all three basins, the NCEP-, DDS-, and All-Sta-based simulations of runoff showed little skill on a daily basis. When the precipitation and temperature biases were corrected in the NCEP, DDS, and All-Sta timeseries, the accuracy of the daily runoff simulations improved dramatically, but, with the exception of the bias-corrected All-Sta data set, these simulations were never as accurate as the SDS-based simulations. This need for a bias correction may be somewhat troubling, but in the case of the large station-timeseries (All-Sta), the bias correction did indeed 'correct' for the change in scale. It is unknown if bias corrections to model output will be valid in a future climate. Future work is warranted to identify the causes for (and removal of) systematic biases in DDS simulations, and improve DDS simulations of daily variability in local climate. Until then, SDS based simulations of runoff appear to be the safer downscaling choice.

Evaluation of the land surface water budget in NCEP/NCAR and NCEP/DOE reanalyses using an off-line hydrologic model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maurer, Edwin P.; O'Donnell, Greg M.; Lettenmaier, Dennis P.; Roads, John O.

2001-08-01

The ability of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) reanalysis (NRA1) and the follow-up NCEP/Department of Energy (DOE) reanalysis (NRA2), to reproduce the hydrologic budgets over the Mississippi River basin is evaluated using a macroscale hydrology model. This diagnosis is aided by a relatively unconstrained global climate simulation using the NCEP global spectral model, and a more highly constrained regional climate simulation using the NCEP regional spectral model, both employing the same land surface parameterization (LSP) as the reanalyses. The hydrology model is the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model, which is forced by gridded observed precipitation and temperature. It reproduces observed streamflow, and by closure is constrained to balance other terms in the surface water and energy budgets. The VIC-simulated surface fluxes therefore provide a benchmark for evaluating the predictions from the reanalyses and the climate models. The comparisons, conducted for the 10-year period 1988-1997, show the well-known overestimation of summer precipitation in the southeastern Mississippi River basin, a consistent overestimation of evapotranspiration, and an underprediction of snow in NRA1. These biases are generally lower in NRA2, though a large overprediction of snow water equivalent exists. NRA1 is subject to errors in the surface water budget due to nudging of modeled soil moisture to an assumed climatology. The nudging and precipitation bias alone do not explain the consistent overprediction of evapotranspiration throughout the basin. Another source of error is the gravitational drainage term in the NCEP LSP, which produces the majority of the model's reported runoff. This may contribute to an overprediction of persistence of surface water anomalies in much of the basin. Residual evapotranspiration inferred from an atmospheric balance of NRA1, which is more directly related to observed atmospheric variables, matches the VIC prediction much more closely than the coupled models. However, the persistence of the residual evapotranspiration is much less than is predicted by the hydrological model or the climate models.

Betty Petersen Memorial Library - NCWCP Publications - NWS

Science.gov Websites

Resources NCEP Office Notes IT Resources Request an item* University of Maryland Research Affiliate Contact for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) NESDIS Center for Satellite Applications & Research (STAR (*revised) (.PDF file) 29 1969 1990* Automation Division Staff NMC Format For Observational Data (ADP

Hurricane Products

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HOME PAGE Image of NCEP Logo WHERE AMERICA'S CLIMATE AND WEATHER SERVICES BEGIN NCEP Products Inventory Image of horizontal rule Hurricane Products Updated: 6/09/2015 Geophysical fluid dynamics laboratory Hurricane Model (GHM) Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast System (HWRF) * Products Information

NCEP Central Operations

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Climate Climate Prediction Climate Archives Weather Safety Storm Ready NOAA Central Library Photo Library NCO's MISSION * Execute the NCEP operational model suite - Create climate, weather, ocean, space and ) NCO Organizational Chart NOAA's Weather and Climate Operational Supercomputing System is known as

JIS Definition Identified More Malaysian Adults with Metabolic Syndrome Compared to the NCEP-ATP III and IDF Criteria

PubMed Central

Daher, Aqil Mohammad; Noor Khan Nor-Ashikin, Mohamed; Mat-Nasir, Nafiza; Keat Ng, Kien; Ambigga, Krishnapillai S.; Ariffin, Farnaza; Yasin Mazapuspavina, Md; Abdul-Razak, Suraya; Abdul-Hamid, Hasidah; Abd-Majid, Fadhlina; Abu-Bakar, Najmin; Nawawi, Hapizah; Yusoff, Khalid

2013-01-01

Metabolic syndrome (MetS) is a steering force for the cardiovascular diseases epidemic in Asia. This study aimed to compare the prevalence of MetS in Malaysian adults using NCEP-ATP III, IDF, and JIS definitions, identify the demographic factors associated with MetS, and determine the level of agreement between these definitions. The analytic sample consisted of 8,836 adults aged ≥30 years recruited at baseline in 2007–2011 from the Cardiovascular Risk Prevention Study (CRisPS), an ongoing, prospective cohort study involving 18 urban and 22 rural communities in Malaysia. JIS definition gave the highest overall prevalence (43.4%) compared to NCEP-ATP III (26.5%) and IDF (37.4%), P < 0.001. Indians had significantly higher age-adjusted prevalence compared to other ethnic groups across all MetS definitions (30.1% by NCEP-ATP III, 50.8% by IDF, and 56.5% by JIS). The likelihood of having MetS amongst the rural and urban populations was similar across all definitions. A high level of agreement between the IDF and JIS was observed (Kappa index = 0.867), while there was a lower level of agreement between the IDF and NCEP-ATP III (Kappa index = 0.580). JIS definition identified more Malaysian adults with MetS and therefore should be recommended as the preferred diagnostic criterion. PMID:24175300

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Jiali; Swati, F. N. U.; Stein, Michael L.

Regional climate models (RCMs) are a standard tool for downscaling climate forecasts to finer spatial scales. The evaluation of RCMs against observational data is an important step in building confidence in the use of RCMs for future prediction. In addition to model performance in climatological means and marginal distributions, a model’s ability to capture spatio-temporal relationships is important. This study develops two approaches: (1) spatial correlation/variogram for a range of spatial lags, with total monthly precipitation and non-seasonal precipitation components used to assess the spatial variations of precipitation; and (2) spatio-temporal correlation for a wide range of distances, directions, andmore » time lags, with daily precipitation occurrence used to detect the dynamic features of precipitation. These measures of spatial and spatio-temporal dependence are applied to a high-resolution RCM run and to the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)-U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) AMIP II reanalysis data (NCEP-R2), which provides initial and lateral boundary conditions for the RCM. The RCM performs better than NCEP-R2 in capturing both the spatial variations of total and non-seasonal precipitation components and the spatio-temporal correlations of daily precipitation occurrences, which are related to dynamic behaviors of precipitating systems. The improvements are apparent not just at resolutions finer than that of NCEP-R2, but also when the RCM and observational data are aggregated to the resolution of NCEP-R2.« less

Prevalence of the metabolic syndrome in populations of Asian origin. Comparison of the IDF definition with the NCEP definition.

PubMed

2007-04-01

To estimate the prevalence of the metabolic syndrome using the IDF versus NCEP definition. 14222 non-diabetic and 1516 diabetic subjects, aged 25-74 years. The age-standardized prevalence of the IDF metabolic syndrome in non-diabetic men (women) was 12.0% (15.0%), 13.8% (2.5%), 12.8% (17.0%), and 13.2% (20.3%), respectively, in Chinese, Japanese, Mauritian Indians, and native Indians. The prevalence ratio of IDF to NCEP was 1.5 (1.5), 2.7 (0.4), 1.2 (1.2), and 1.0 (1.3) in Chinese, Japanese, Mauritian, and Native Indian men (women), respectively. When the same obesity criteria for Japanese as for others were used the ratio for Japanese was 1.5 in both genders. Of all subjects fulfilling either of the two definitions, only 28% of men and 47% of women met the both. The prevalence of central obesity was 52 times greater using the IDF definition than using the NCEP definition in Japanese men but it was 0.8 times lower in Japanese women. The IDF definition brought a higher prevalence of the metabolic syndrome than the NCEP in all except for Japanese women but many lean subjects with hypertension and/or dyslipidemia were undetected by this definition. The IDF criterion for central obesity for Japanese needs to be reconsidered.

Metabolic syndrome in type 2 diabetes: comparative prevalence according to two sets of diagnostic criteria in sub-Saharan Africans

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Available definition criteria for metabolic syndrome (MS) have similarities and inconsistencies. The aim of this study was to determine the prevalence of MS in a group of Cameroonians with type 2 diabetes, according to the International Diabetes Federation (IDF) and the National Cholesterol Education Programme Adult Treatment Panel III (NCEP-ATP III) criteria, and to assess the concordance between both criteria, and the implications of combining them. Methods We collected clinical and biochemical data for 308 patients with type 2 diabetes (men 157) at the National Obesity Center of the Yaounde Central Hospital, Cameroon. Concordance was assessed with the use of the Kappa statistic. Results Mean age (standard deviation) was 55.8 (10.5) years and the median duration of diagnosed diabetes (25th–75th percentiles) was 3 years (0.5–5.0), similarly among men and women. The prevalence of MS was 71.7% according to the IDF criteria and 60.4% according to NCEP-ATP III criteria. The prevalence was significantly higher in women than in men independently of the criteria used (both p < 0.001). Overall concordance between both definitions was low to average 0.51 (95% confidence interval: 0.41–0.61). Combining the two sets of criteria marginally improved the yield beyond that provided by the IDF criteria alone in men, but not in the overall population and in women. Conclusions The IDF and NCEP-ATP III criteria do not always diagnose the same group of diabetic individuals with MS and combining them merely increases the yield beyond that provided by the IDF definition alone. This study highlights the importance of having a single unifying definition for MS in our setting. PMID:22650602

Metabolic syndrome in type 2 diabetes: comparative prevalence according to two sets of diagnostic criteria in sub-Saharan Africans.

PubMed

Kengne, Andre P; Limen, Serge N; Sobngwi, Eugene; Djouogo, Cathérine Ft; Nouedoui, Christophe

2012-05-31

Available definition criteria for metabolic syndrome (MS) have similarities and inconsistencies. The aim of this study was to determine the prevalence of MS in a group of Cameroonians with type 2 diabetes, according to the International Diabetes Federation (IDF) and the National Cholesterol Education Programme Adult Treatment Panel III (NCEP-ATP III) criteria, and to assess the concordance between both criteria, and the implications of combining them. We collected clinical and biochemical data for 308 patients with type 2 diabetes (men 157) at the National Obesity Center of the Yaounde Central Hospital, Cameroon. Concordance was assessed with the use of the Kappa statistic. Mean age (standard deviation) was 55.8 (10.5) years and the median duration of diagnosed diabetes (25th-75th percentiles) was 3 years (0.5-5.0), similarly among men and women. The prevalence of MS was 71.7% according to the IDF criteria and 60.4% according to NCEP-ATP III criteria. The prevalence was significantly higher in women than in men independently of the criteria used (both p < 0.001). Overall concordance between both definitions was low to average 0.51 (95% confidence interval: 0.41-0.61). Combining the two sets of criteria marginally improved the yield beyond that provided by the IDF criteria alone in men, but not in the overall population and in women. The IDF and NCEP-ATP III criteria do not always diagnose the same group of diabetic individuals with MS and combining them merely increases the yield beyond that provided by the IDF definition alone. This study highlights the importance of having a single unifying definition for MS in our setting.

Configuring the HYSPLIT Model for National Weather Service Forecast Office and Spaceflight Meteorology Group Applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dreher, Joseph G.

2009-01-01

For expedience in delivering dispersion guidance in the diversity of operational situations, National Weather Service Melbourne (MLB) and Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) are becoming increasingly reliant on the PC-based version of the HYSPLIT model run through a graphical user interface (GUI). While the GUI offers unique advantages when compared to traditional methods, it is difficult for forecasters to run and manage in an operational environment. To alleviate the difficulty in providing scheduled real-time trajectory and concentration guidance, the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) configured a Linux version of the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) (HYSPLIT) model that ingests the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) guidance, such as the North American Mesoscale (NAM) and the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) models. The AMU configured the HYSPLIT system to automatically download the NCEP model products, convert the meteorological grids into HYSPLIT binary format, run the model from several pre-selected latitude/longitude sites, and post-process the data to create output graphics. In addition, the AMU configured several software programs to convert local Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model output into HYSPLIT format.

National Centers for Environmental Prediction

Science.gov Websites

Reference List Table of Contents NCEP OPERATIONAL MODEL FORECAST GRAPHICS PARALLEL/EXPERIMENTAL MODEL Developmental Air Quality Forecasts and Verification Back to Table of Contents 2. PARALLEL/EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICS VERIFICATION (GRID VS.OBS) WEB PAGE (NCEP EXPERIMENTAL PAGE, INTERNAL USE ONLY) Interactive web page tool for

NMC OFFICE NOTE 124

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surface reports in the NMC observational files. This revision represents the final update to NMC/NCEP Office Note Number 124. This format for representing meteorological surface observational data at NMC observational data format at NCEP. An accurate version of this Office Note is still necessary for historical

NCEP Data Products

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Image of NCEP Logo WHERE AMERICA'S CLIMATE AND WEATHER SERVICES BEGIN Inventory of Data Products on Generated Products Image of horizontal rule Global Forecast System (GFS) GFS Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS of horizontal rule External Products Image of horizontal rule Canadian Ensemble Forecast System

Climate Forecast System

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Weather Service NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS home page Climate Forecast System Home News Organization Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services. The NCEP Climate when using the CFS Reanalysis (CFSR) data. Saha, Suranjana, and Coauthors, 2010: The NCEP Climate

Trends in the Zonal Winds over the Southern Ocean from the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis and Scatterometers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Richman, J. G.

2002-12-01

The winds over the Southern Ocean for the entire 54-year (1948-2001) period of the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis have been decomposed into Principal Components (Empirical Orthogonal Functions). The first EOF describes 83 percent of the variance in the zonal wind. The loading of the EOF shows the predominately westerly surface flow with strongest winds in the Indian sector of the Southern Ocean. The structure of this EOF is similar to the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) identified by Thompson, et al 2000. The amplitude of this EOF reveals a large trend of 4.42 cm/s/yr in the strength of the zonal wind corresponding to a nearly 50 percent increase in the wind stress over the Southern Ocean. Such a trend, if real, would be important in the dynamics of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC). Recent studies by Gille, et al. (2001), Olbers and Ivchenko (2001) and Gent et al. (2001) have shown that the transport of the ACC is correlated to the variability in the zonal wind with a monotonic increase in the transport with increasing zonal wind strength. However, errors in the data assimilation scheme for surface pressure observations on the Antarctic continent appears to have caused a spurious trend in the sea level pressure south of 40S of -0.2 hPa/yr (Hines, et al. 2000 and Marshall, 2002). The sea level pressure difference between 40S and 60S has risen by 8 hPa over the same period. This sea level pressure difference is used as a proxy for the strength of the zonal winds. Thus, the trend in the zonal wind EOF amplitude may be an artifact of model errors in the NCEP Reanalysis. To check this trend, we analyzed scatterometer winds over the Southern Ocean from the SEASAT, ERS (1 and 2), NSCAT and QuikScat satellites. The scatterometer data is not used in the NCEP Reanalysis and, thus, is an independent estimate of the winds. The SEASAT Scatterometer (SASS) operated for 90 days in July-September, 1978, while the ERS, NSCAT and QuikScat scatterometers provide a continuous dataset from September 1992 through the present. The zonal winds for the combined ERS/NSCAT dataset were decomposed into Principal Components, similar to the NCEP winds. The first EOF describes 78 percent of the variance in the zonal wind. The loading of the EOF is nearly identical in structure to the loading of the NCEP EOF, and the correlation between the amplitudes is 0.93 for the coincident period. The trend in the scatterometer winds is 3.9 cm/s/yr for the eight years, which is not significantly different from the 4.4 cm /s/yr trend of the NCEP winds. The three months of SASS data were projected onto the scatterometer EOF and the amplitudes compared to the long-term NCEP amplitudes. The agreement between the scatterometer amplitudes and the NCEP is remarkable. The comparison between the scatterometer winds and NCEP Reanalysis winds suggests that the trend towards increasing zonal winds is real. The increasing zonal winds over the Southern Ocean may lead to a substantial increase in the transport of the ACC over the past 50 years.

Observation of the long-term effects of lifestyle intervention during balneotherapy in metabolic syndrome.

PubMed

Gin, Henri; Demeaux, Jean-Louis; Grelaud, Angela; Grolleau, Adeline; Droz-Perroteau, Cécile; Robinson, Philip; Lassalle, Régis; Abouelfath, Abdelilah; Boisseau, Michel; Toussaint, Christian; Moore, Nicholas

2013-01-01

Estimate the effect of lifestyle adjustment activities in patients with metabolic syndrome treated by prescribed balneotherapy. Observational pilot cohort study with 12-month follow-up after multidimensional lifestyle training (physical, dietary, educational) during 3-week standard stay in the spa town of Eugénie-les-Bains. Of 145 eligible patients, 97 were included; 63 were followed and analysable. At inclusion all had ≥3 National cholesterol education program-Adult treatment panel III (NCEP-ATPIII) criteria defining metabolic syndrome, 76.2% were female, mean age was 61.2 years. At the end of follow-up (median:10.4 months, Inter-Quartile Range: [6.7;11.4]), 48 of these 63 patients (76.2%) no longer had metabolic syndrome (95%CI [65.7;86.7]). These 48 patients without metabolic syndrome at the end of follow-up represented 49.5% of the 97 included (95%CI [39.5;59.4]). Future studies of lifestyle interventions taking advantage of the spa environment can be expected to find least one third of patients free of metabolic syndrome at the end of 12-month follow-up in the intervention group. © 2013 Société Française de Pharmacologie et de Thérapeutique.

Operational and LIS-Based North American Land Data Assimilation Systems at National Centers for Environmental Prediction: Capability in Simulating Water and Energy Budget over the Western United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mitchell, K.; Xia, Y.; Ek, M. B.; Mocko, D. M.; Kumar, S.; Peters-Lidard, C. D.

2016-12-01

NLDAS is a multi-institutional collaborative project sponsored by NOAA's Climate Program Office and NASA's Terrestrial Hydrological Program. NLDAS has a long successful history of producing soil moisture, snow cover, total runoff and streamflow products via application of surface meteorology and precipitation datasets to drive four land-surface models (i.e., Noah, Mosaic, SAC, VIC). The purpose of the NLDAS system is to support numerous research and operational applications in the land modeling and water resources management communities. Since the operational NLDAS version was successfully implemented at NCEP in August 2014, NLDAS products are being used by over 5000 users annually worldwide, including academia, governmental agencies, and private enterprises. Over 71 million files and 144 Tb of data were downloaded in 2015. As we endeavor to increase the quality and breadth of NLDAS products, a joint effort between NASA and NCEP is underway to enable the assimilation of hydrology-relevant remote sensing datasets within NLDAS through the NASA Land Information System (LIS). The use of LIS will also enable easier transition of newly upgraded land surface models into NCEP NLDAS operations. Cold season processes significantly affect water and energy cycles, and their partitioning. As such, in the evaluation of NLDAS systems it is important to assess water and energy exchanges and/or partitioning processes over high-elevations. The Rocky Mountain region of the western U. S. is chosen as such a region to analyze and compare snow water equivalent (SWE), snow cover, snow melt, snow sublimation, total runoff, and sensible heat and latent heat flux. Reference data sets (observation-based and reanalysis) of monthly SWE, streamflow, evapotranspiration, GRACE-based total water storage change, and energy fluxes are used to evaluate model-simulated results. The results show several key factors that affect model simulations: (1) forcing errors such as precipitation partitioning into snowfall and rainfall, (2) snow albedo, (3) refreezing of melted snow, (4) boundary layer stability, and (5) freezing and thawing of soil. Though the anomaly correlations indicate good agreement with the observations or reanalysis products, large quantitative differences are evident in certain cases.

NCEP Operational HWRF Forecasting System

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NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage EMC Hurricane Team NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS © 2018 | NOAA * NWS * NCEP * EMC * Hurricane Project Team DISCLAIMER: THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL

20060530 - Global Ensemble Upgrade - NWS ftp

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the NWS ftp server and to describe some changes to data locations described in the earlier message on .{YYYYMMDD}/ MAJOR PRODUCT CHANGES TO NCEP GLOBAL ENSEMBLE OUTPUT -- PLEASE READ CAREFULLY Starting with the 12 UTC cycle on 30 May 2006 NCEP Central Operations will implement changes to the global ensemble

EMC Global Climate And Weather Modeling Branch Personnel

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Comparison Statistics which includes: NCEP Raw and Bias-Corrected Ensemble Domain Averaged Bias NCEP Raw and Bias-Corrected Ensemble Domain Averaged Bias Reduction (Percents) CMC Raw and Bias-Corrected Control Forecast Domain Averaged Bias CMC Raw and Bias-Corrected Control Forecast Domain Averaged Bias Reduction

CFS Products

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vddsf.xx.YYYYMMDDHH.daily.grb2 Not Available CFS Near IR Diffuse Downward Solar Flux Filename Inventory Available CFS Near IR Diffuse Downward Solar Flux Filename Inventory nddsf.xx.YYYYMMDDHH.daily.grb2 6hrly Image of NCEP logo For questions related to this website, send mail to Web Manager. NCEP/NCO Production

National Centers for Environmental Prediction

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albedos (testing) Vegetation types Soil texture Images of Snow files: NAM snow page The NESDIS/IMS snow /ice images On Hua-Lu Pan's home page (EMC/NCEP) On the NCAR/RAP Weather Data Page Related soil moisture web sites NCEP/NASA NDAS CPC Soil Moisture Monitoring and Prediction NOAA / National Weather

NCO Systems Integration

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: AWC CPC EMC NCO NHC OPC SPC SWPC WPC Search by city or zip code. Press enter or select the go button to submit request Local forecast by "City, St" City, St Go Search NCEP Go NCEP Quarterly Surface Analysis Product Loops Environmental Models Product Info Current Status Model Analyses &

NCO Mail Webmaster

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: AWC CPC EMC NCO NHC OPC SPC SWPC WPC Search by city or zip code. Press enter or select the go button to submit request Local forecast by "City, St" City, St Go Search NCEP Go NCEP Quarterly Surface Analysis Product Loops Environmental Models Product Info Current Status Model Analyses &

NAEFS Products

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HOME PAGE Image of NCEP Logo WHERE AMERICA'S CLIMATE AND WEATHER SERVICES BEGIN NCEP Products Inventory Image of horizontal rule North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS) Products Updated: 02/27 /2014 * Products Information about the NAEFS Models CC is the model cycle runtime (i.e. 00, 06, 12, 18

NCEP Air Quality Forecast(AQF) Verification. NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC

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average Select forecast four: Day 1 AOD skill for all thresholds Day 1 Time series for AOD GT 0 Day 2 AOD skill for all thresholds Day 2 Time series for AOD GT 0 Diurnal plots for AOD GT 0 Select statistic type

CLIVAR-GSOP/GODAE Ocean Synthesis Inter-Comparison of Global Air-Sea Fluxes From Ocean and Coupled Reanalyses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valdivieso, Maria

2014-05-01

The GODAE OceanView and CLIVAR-GSOP ocean synthesis program has been assessing the degree of consistency between global air-sea flux data sets obtained from ocean or coupled reanalyses (Valdivieso et al., 2014). So far, fifteen global air-sea heat flux products obtained from ocean or coupled reanalyses have been examined: seven are from low-resolution ocean reanalyses (BOM PEODAS, ECMWF ORAS4, JMA/MRI MOVEG2, JMA/MRI MOVECORE, Hamburg Univ. GECCO2, JPL ECCOv4, and NCEP GODAS), five are from eddy-permitting ocean reanalyses developed as part of the EU GMES MyOcean program (Mercator GLORYS2v1, Reading Univ. UR025.3, UR025.4, UKMO GloSea5, and CMCC C-GLORS), and the remaining three are couple reanalyses based on coupled climate models (JMA/MRI MOVE-C, GFDL ECDA and NCEP CFSR). The global heat closure in the products over the period 1993-2009 spanned by all data sets is presented in comparison with observational and atmospheric reanalysis estimates. Then, global maps of ensemble spread in the seasonal cycle, and of the Signal to Noise Ratio of interannual flux variability over the 17-yr common period are shown to illustrate the consistency between the products. We have also studied regional variability in the products, particularly at the OceanSITES project locations (such as, for instance, the TAO/TRITON and PIRATA arrays in the Tropical Pacific and Atlantic, respectively). Comparisons are being made with other products such as OAFlux latent and sensible heat fluxes (Yu et al., 2008) combined with ISCCP satellite-based radiation (Zhang et al., 2004), the ship-based NOC2.0 product (Berry and Kent, 2009), the Large and Yeager (2009) hybrid flux dataset CORE.2, and two atmospheric reanalysis products, the ECMWF ERA-Interim reanalysis (referred to as ERAi, Dee et al., 2011) and the NCEP/DOE reanalysis R2 (referred to as NCEP-R2, Kanamitsu et al., 2002). Preliminary comparisons with the observational flux products from OceanSITES are also underway. References Berry, D.I. and E.C. Kent (2009), A New Air-Sea Interaction Gridded Dataset from ICOADS with Uncertainty Estimates. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc 90(5), 645-656. doi: 10.1175/2008BAMS2639.1. Dee, D. P. et al. (2011), The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system. Q.J.R. Meteorol. Soc., 137: 553-597. doi: 10.1002/qj.828. Kanamitsu M., Ebitsuzaki W., Woolen J., Yang S.K., Hnilo J.J., Fiorino M., Potter G. (2002), NCEP-DOE AMIP-II reanalysis (R-2). Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 83:1631-1643. Large, W. and Yeager, S. (2009), The global climatology of an interannually varying air-sea flux data set. Clim. Dynamics, Volume 33, pp 341-364 Valdivieso, M. and co-authors (2014): Heat fluxes from ocean and coupled reanalyses, Clivar Exchanges. Issue 64. Yu, L., X. Jin, and R. A. Weller (2008), Multidecade Global Flux Datasets from the Objectively Analyzed Air-sea Fluxes (OAFlux) Project: Latent and Sensible Heat Fluxes, Ocean Evaporation, and Related Surface Meteorological Variables. Technical Report OAFlux Project (OA2008-01), Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution. Zhang, Y., WB Rossow, AA Lacis, V Oinas, MI Mishchenk (2004), Calculation of radiative fluxes from the surface to top of atmsophere based on ISCCP and other global data sets. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres (1984-2012) 109 (D19).

The management of hypercholesterolemia in patients with coronary artery disease: guidelines for primary care.

PubMed

Vogel, R A

1998-01-01

More than 10 million individuals in the United States currently have symptomatic coronary artery disease (CAD). Asymptomatic CAD is even more prevalent. CAD in the United States is responsible for approximately 1.5 million myocardial infarctions, 500,000 deaths, and a total economic burden in excess of $120 billion annually. Fortunately, CAD is preventable in many individuals. Our understanding of CAD has steadily progressed throughout the 20th century, and now several lines of evidence support the importance of cholesterol in both the genesis and management of coronary atherosclerosis. Following identification of the presence of cholesterol in atheromas, Anitschkov early this century demonstrated that atherosclerotic lesions can be induced in susceptible animals by high-saturated-fat and cholesterol diets. These lesions regressed when low-fat and cholesterol diets were resumed. In the 1970s and 1980s, findings from the landmark Framingham Heart, Seven Countries, and Multiple Risk Factor Intervention Trial studies firmly established that hypercholesterolemia was a major risk factor for cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. During the 1980s and 1990s, 21 of 22 angiographic trials demonstrated reduced progression of coronary and/or carotid artery disease using lifestyle, drug, and surgical means for reducing cholesterol. The later trials commonly employed hydroxymethylglutaryl coenzyme A reductase inhibitors (statins), reflecting increasing clinical use of these drugs. In 1988, the Adult Treatment Panel of the National Cholesterol Education Program (NCEP) published guidelines on testing and treating hypercholesterolemic patients, which outlined a more aggressive approach to cholesterol lowering than was currently in practice. Since 1994, five large cardiovascular event trials and a large angiographic trial have shown that aggressive cholesterol lowering reduces both cardiac morbidity and mortality, largely substantiating the NCEP guidelines. Although important clinical questions remain regarding patient subsets and treatment goals, lifestyle changes and appropriate drug therapy have proved to be highly effective in preventing initial and recurrent cardiovascular events.

Longitudinal association of antidepressant medication use with metabolic syndrome: Results of a 9-year follow-up of the D.E.S.I.R. cohort study.

PubMed

Azevedo Da Silva, Marine; Balkau, Beverley; Roussel, Ronan; Tichet, Jean; Fumeron, Frédéric; Fagherazzi, Guy; Nabi, Hermann

2016-12-01

To examine longitudinal associations between antidepressant medication use and the metabolic syndrome (MetS). 5014 participants (49.8% were men) from the D.E.S.I.R. cohort study, aged 30-65 years at baseline in 1994-1996, were followed over 9 years at 3-yearly intervals (1997-1999, 2000-2002, and 2003-2005). Antidepressant use and MetS, defined by the National Cholesterol Education Program Adult Treatment Panel III criteria (NCEP-ATP III) and the American Heart Association and the National Heart, Lung and Blood Institute (AHA/NHLBI) criteria, were assessed concurrently at four medical examinations. In fully-adjusted longitudinal logistic regression analyses based on generalized estimating equations, antidepressant users had a 9% (p=0.011) and a 6% (p=0.036) greater annual increase in the odds of having the MetS defined by NCEP-ATP III and AHA/NHLBI criteria respectively. Sex-specific analyses showed that this association was confined to men only. When the different types of antidepressant were considered, men who used selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs), imipramine type antidepressants or "other" antidepressants had a 52% (p=0.028), 31% (p=0.011), and 16% (p=0.016) greater annual increase in the odds of having the MetS over time compared to non-users, respectively. These associations depended on the definition of the MetS. Our longitudinal data showed that antidepressant use was associated with an increased odds of having the MetS in men but not in women and this was mainly for SSRIs, imipramine type and "other" antidepressants. People on antidepressants may need to be checked regularly for the elements of the metabolic syndrome treatable by change in diet, physical activity and/or by medication therapy. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Testing a Coupled Global-limited-area Data Assimilation System using Observations from the 2004 Pacific Typhoon Season

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holt, C. R.; Szunyogh, I.; Gyarmati, G.; Hoffman, R. N.; Leidner, M.

2011-12-01

Tropical cyclone (TC) track and intensity forecasts have improved in recent years due to increased model resolution, improved data assimilation, and the rapid increase in the number of routinely assimilated observations over oceans. The data assimilation approach that has received the most attention in recent years is Ensemble Kalman Filtering (EnKF). The most attractive feature of the EnKF is that it uses a fully flow-dependent estimate of the error statistics, which can have important benefits for the analysis of rapidly developing TCs. We implement the Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter algorithm, a vari- ation of the EnKF, on a reduced-resolution version of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecast System (GFS) model and the NCEP Regional Spectral Model (RSM) to build a coupled global-limited area anal- ysis/forecast system. This is the first time, to our knowledge, that such a system is used for the analysis and forecast of tropical cyclones. We use data from summer 2004 to study eight tropical cyclones in the Northwest Pacific. The benchmark data sets that we use to assess the performance of our system are the NCEP Reanalysis and the NCEP Operational GFS analyses from 2004. These benchmark analyses were both obtained by the Statistical Spectral Interpolation, which was the operational data assimilation system of NCEP in 2004. The GFS Operational analysis assimilated a large number of satellite radiance observations in addition to the observations assimilated in our system. All analyses are verified against the Joint Typhoon Warning Center Best Track data set. The errors are calculated for the position and intensity of the TCs. The global component of the ensemble-based system shows improvement in po- sition analysis over the NCEP Reanalysis, but shows no significant difference from the NCEP operational analysis for most of the storm tracks. The regional com- ponent of our system improves position analysis over all the global analyses. The intensity analyses, measured by the minimum sea level pressure, are of similar quality in all of the analyses. Regional deterministic forecasts started from our analyses are generally not significantly different from those started from the GFS operational analysis. On average, the regional experiments performed better for longer than 48 h sea level pressure forecasts, while the global forecast performed better in predicting the position for longer than 48 h.

Wind Wave Climate of the Baltic Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Medvedeva, Alisa

2017-04-01

Storms in the Baltic Sea in autumn and winter are very frequent. In this research the goal is to estimate decadal and interannual changes of the wave fields for the entire Baltic Sea. The wave parameters, such as significant wave heights and periods, were simulated for the period 1979-2015 years based on NCEP/CFSR Reanalysis data fields and for the period 1948-2010 years based on NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis data. For accuracy estimation of the model the statistical characteristics, such as correlation coefficient, bias, scatter index and RMSE were calculated. Also two computational meshes were compared: rectangular and triangulated. In this study the third generation spectral wind-wave model SWAN was used for simulations. For wind input data two types of wind reanalysis were chosen: NCEP/CFSR with 1-hour time step and NCEP/NCAR with time step of 6 hours. The final computational grid for rectangular mesh for the Baltic Sea is 0.05×0.05°. The simulated data were compared with instrumental data of the Sweden buoys and of the acoustic wave recorder fixed at the Russian oil platform. The results reveal that for the Baltic Sea it is more efficient to use rectangular mesh for the deep open area and irregular mesh near the coast. Simulations using wind data from NCEP/NCAR significantly decreases the quality of the results compared with NCEP/CFSR wind data: Bias increases in 10 times (-0.730), RMSE - in 2-3 times (0.89). The following results of numerical modeling using NCEP/NCAR the storm situations, when the significant wave height exceeded 2 meters, were identified for the 63-year period. An average of about 50 storms per year happened in the Baltic Sea in this time period. The storminess of the Baltic Sea tends to increase. The twenty-year periodicity with the increase in the 70-s and 90-s years of XX century was revealed. The average yearly significant wave height increases in the second part of the century too and differs from 2.4 to 3.3 m. Storm cyclones are connected with the global atmosphere circulation patterns. According to similar research of the other west seas of Russia by the analogous methods, such kind of twenty-year periodicity was identified for the Caspian Sea and the Sea of Azov, but the storminess there for the period from 1948 to 2010 decreases.

How accurately are climatological characteristics and surface water and energy balances represented for the Colombian Caribbean Catchment Basin?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoyos, Isabel; Baquero-Bernal, Astrid; Hagemann, Stefan

2013-09-01

In Colombia, the access to climate related observational data is restricted and their quantity is limited. But information about the current climate is fundamental for studies on present and future climate changes and their impacts. In this respect, this information is especially important over the Colombian Caribbean Catchment Basin (CCCB) that comprises over 80 % of the population of Colombia and produces about 85 % of its GDP. Consequently, an ensemble of several datasets has been evaluated and compared with respect to their capability to represent the climate over the CCCB. The comparison includes observations, reconstructed data (CPC, Delaware), reanalyses (ERA-40, NCEP/NCAR), and simulated data produced with the regional climate model REMO. The capabilities to represent the average annual state, the seasonal cycle, and the interannual variability are investigated. The analyses focus on surface air temperature and precipitation as well as on surface water and energy balances. On one hand the CCCB characteristics poses some difficulties to the datasets as the CCCB includes a mountainous region with three mountain ranges, where the dynamical core of models and model parameterizations can fail. On the other hand, it has the most dense network of stations, with the longest records, in the country. The results can be summarised as follows: all of the datasets demonstrate a cold bias in the average temperature of CCCB. However, the variability of the average temperature of CCCB is most poorly represented by the NCEP/NCAR dataset. The average precipitation in CCCB is overestimated by all datasets. For the ERA-40, NCEP/NCAR, and REMO datasets, the amplitude of the annual cycle is extremely high. The variability of the average precipitation in CCCB is better represented by the reconstructed data of CPC and Delaware, as well as by NCEP/NCAR. Regarding the capability to represent the spatial behaviour of CCCB, temperature is better represented by Delaware and REMO, while precipitation is better represented by Delaware. Among the three datasets that permit an analysis of surface water and energy balances (REMO, ERA-40, and NCEP/NCAR), REMO best demonstrates the closure property of the surface water balance within the basin, while NCEP/NCAR does not demonstrate this property well. The three datasets represent the energy balance fairly well, although some inconsistencies were found in the individual balance components for NCEP/NCAR.

NCEP BUFR File Structure

Science.gov Websites

. These tables may be defined within a separate ASCII text file (see Description and Format of BUFR Tables time, the BUFR tables are usually read from an external ASCII text file (although it is also possible reports. Click here to view the ASCII text file (called /nwprod/fix/bufrtab.002 on the NCEP CCS machines

NCEP BUFRLIB Software User Guide

Science.gov Websites

Integration Branch > Decoders > BUFRLIB BUFRLIB Software User Guide This document set describes how to use the NCEP BUFRLIB software to encode or decode BUFR messages. It is not intended to be a primer on background knowledge of the basic concepts of BUFR and will focus solely on how to use the BUFRLIB software

Global Ensemble Upgrade - 20060530

Science.gov Websites

products available on both the NCEP ftp server (ftpprd.ncep.noaa.gov/pub/data/) and the NWS ftp server processing routines so that they can continue to receive and use these data. The nature of these changes are of global ensemble data will be drastically changed to allow for better system performance on the

Analysis of the present and future winter Pacific-North American teleconnection in the ECHAM5 global and RegCM3 regional climate models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Allan, Andrea M.; Hostetler, Steven W.; Alder, Jay R.

2014-01-01

We use the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis (NCEP) and the MPI/ECHAM5 general circulation model to drive the RegCM3 regional climate model to assess the ability of the models to reproduce the spatiotemporal aspects of the Pacific-North American teleconnection (PNA) pattern. Composite anomalies of the NCEP-driven RegCM3 simulations for 1982–2000 indicate that the regional model is capable of accurately simulating the key features (500-hPa heights, surface temperature, and precipitation) of the positive and negative phases of the PNA with little loss of information in the downscaling process. The basic structure of the PNA is captured in both the ECHAM5 global and ECHAM5-driven RegCM3 simulations. The 1950–2000 ECHAM5 simulation displays similar temporal and spatial variability in the PNA index as that of NCEP; however, the magnitudes of the positive and negative phases are weaker than those of NCEP. The RegCM3 simulations clearly differentiate the climatology and associated anomalies of snow water equivalent and soil moisture of the positive and negative PNA phases. In the RegCM3 simulations of the future (2050–2100), changes in the location and extent of the Aleutian low and the continental high over North America alter the dominant flow patterns associated with positive and negative PNA modes. The future projections display a shift in the patterns of the relationship between the PNA and surface climate variables, which suggest the potential for changes in the PNA-related surface hydrology of North America.

NCEP MMAB Sea Ice Home Page

Science.gov Websites

NCEP MMAB Sea Ice Home Page The Polar and Great Lakes Ice group works on sea ice analysis from satellite, sea ice modeling, and ice-atmosphere-ocean coupling. Our work supports the Alaska Region of the @noaa.gov Last Modified 2 July 2012 Pages of Interest Analysis Daily Sea Ice Analyses Animations of the

VERIFICATION OF SURFACE LAYER OZONE FORECASTS IN THE NOAA/EPA AIR QUALITY FORECAST SYSTEM IN DIFFERENT REGIONS UNDER DIFFERENT SYNOPTIC SCENARIOS

EPA Science Inventory

An air quality forecast (AQF) system has been established at NOAA/NCEP since 2003 as a collaborative effort of NOAA and EPA. The system is based on NCEP's Eta mesoscale meteorological model and EPA's CMAQ air quality model (Davidson et al, 2004). The vision behind this system is ...

RAP "Rapid Refresh" Products

Science.gov Websites

HOME PAGE Image of NCEP Logo WHERE AMERICA'S CLIMATE AND WEATHER SERVICES BEGIN NCEP Products Inventory Image of horizontal rule Rapid Refresh (RAP) Products Updated: 11/28/2016 * Information about the rap.tccz.awp243fxx.grib2 Not Available RAP - BUFR Sounding products Model Runs every hour (00z-23z) Filename Inventory

NCEP Air Quality Forecast(AQF) for Alaska/Hawaii. NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC

Science.gov Websites

: Daily sfc max or avg 2D fields Quick verification O3/PM2.5 Meteor Year: 2012 2013 2014 2015 Month: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Day: 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

Use of medium-range numerical weather prediction model output to produce forecasts of streamflow

USGS Publications Warehouse

Clark, M.P.; Hay, L.E.

2004-01-01

This paper examines an archive containing over 40 years of 8-day atmospheric forecasts over the contiguous United States from the NCEP reanalysis project to assess the possibilities for using medium-range numerical weather prediction model output for predictions of streamflow. This analysis shows the biases in the NCEP forecasts to be quite extreme. In many regions, systematic precipitation biases exceed 100% of the mean, with temperature biases exceeding 3??C. In some locations, biases are even higher. The accuracy of NCEP precipitation and 2-m maximum temperature forecasts is computed by interpolating the NCEP model output for each forecast day to the location of each station in the NWS cooperative network and computing the correlation with station observations. Results show that the accuracy of the NCEP forecasts is rather low in many areas of the country. Most apparent is the generally low skill in precipitation forecasts (particularly in July) and low skill in temperature forecasts in the western United States, the eastern seaboard, and the southern tier of states. These results outline a clear need for additional processing of the NCEP Medium-Range Forecast Model (MRF) output before it is used for hydrologic predictions. Techniques of model output statistics (MOS) are used in this paper to downscale the NCEP forecasts to station locations. Forecasted atmospheric variables (e.g., total column precipitable water, 2-m air temperature) are used as predictors in a forward screening multiple linear regression model to improve forecasts of precipitation and temperature for stations in the National Weather Service cooperative network. This procedure effectively removes all systematic biases in the raw NCEP precipitation and temperature forecasts. MOS guidance also results in substantial improvements in the accuracy of maximum and minimum temperature forecasts throughout the country. For precipitation, forecast improvements were less impressive. MOS guidance increases he accuracy of precipitation forecasts over the northeastern United States, but overall, the accuracy of MOS-based precipitation forecasts is slightly lower than the raw NCEP forecasts. Four basins in the United States were chosen as case studies to evaluate the value of MRF output for predictions of streamflow. Streamflow forecasts using MRF output were generated for one rainfall-dominated basin (Alapaha River at Statenville, Georgia) and three snowmelt-dominated basins (Animas River at Durango, Colorado: East Fork of the Carson River near Gardnerville, Nevada: and Cle Elum River near Roslyn, Washington). Hydrologic model output forced with measured-station data were used as "truth" to focus attention on the hydrologic effects of errors in the MRF forecasts. Eight-day streamflow forecasts produced using the MOS-corrected MRF output as input (MOS) were compared with those produced using the climatic Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) technique. MOS-based streamflow forecasts showed increased skill in the snowmelt-dominated river basins, where daily variations in streamflow are strongly forced by temperature. In contrast, the skill of MOS forecasts in the rainfall-dominated basin (the Alapaha River) were equivalent to the skill of the ESP forecasts. Further improvements in streamflow forecasts require more accurate local-scale forecasts of precipitation and temperature, more accurate specification of basin initial conditions, and more accurate model simulations of streamflow. ?? 2004 American Meteorological Society.

Comparison of trends and abrupt changes of the South Asia high from 1979 to 2014 in reanalysis and radiosonde datasets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shi, Chunhua; Huang, Ying; Guo, Dong; Zhou, Shunwu; Hu, Kaixi; Liu, Yu

2018-05-01

The South Asian High (SAH) has an important influence on atmospheric circulation and the Asian climate in summer. However, current comparative analyses of the SAH are mostly between reanalysis datasets and there is a lack of sounding data. We therefore compared the climatology, trends and abrupt changes in the SAH in the Japanese 55-year Reanalysis (JRA-55) dataset, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (NCEP-CFSR) dataset, the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis Interim (ERA-interim) dataset and radiosonde data from China using linear analysis and a sliding t-test. The trends in geopotential height in the control area of the SAH were positive in the JRA-55, NCEP-CFSR and ERA-interim datasets, but negative in the radiosonde data in the time period 1979-2014. The negative trends for the SAH were significant at the 90% confidence level in the radiosonde data from May to September. The positive trends in the NCEP-CFSR dataset were significant at the 90% confidence level in May, July, August and September, but the positive trends in the JRA-55 and ERA-Interim were only significant at the 90% confidence level in September. The reasons for the differences in the trends of the SAH between the radiosonde data and the three reanalysis datasets in the time period 1979-2014 were updates to the sounding systems, changes in instrumentation and improvements in the radiation correction method for calculations around the year 2000. We therefore analyzed the trends in the two time periods of 1979-2000 and 2001-2014 separately. From 1979 to 2000, the negative SAH trends in the radiosonde data mainly agreed with the negative trends in the NCEP-CFSR dataset, but were in contrast with the positive trends in the JRA-55 and ERA-Interim datasets. In 2001-2014, however, the trends in the SAH were positive in all four datasets and most of the trends in the radiosonde and NCEP-CFSR datasets were significant. It is therefore better to use the NCEP-CFSR dataset than the JRA-55 and ERA-Interim datasets when discussing trends in the SAH.

Precipitation From a Multiyear Database of Convection-Allowing WRF Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goines, D. C.; Kennedy, A. D.

2018-03-01

Convection-allowing models (CAMs) have become frequently used for operational forecasting and, more recently, have been utilized for general circulation model downscaling. CAM forecasts have typically been analyzed for a few case studies or over short time periods, but this limits the ability to judge the overall skill of deterministic simulations. Analysis over long time periods can yield a better understanding of systematic model error. Four years of warm season (April-August, 2010-2013)-simulated precipitation has been accumulated from two Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) models with 4 km grid spacing. The simulations were provided by the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and the National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL), each with different dynamic cores and parameterization schemes. These simulations are evaluated against the NCEP Stage-IV precipitation data set with similar 4 km grid spacing. The spatial distribution and diurnal cycle of precipitation in the central United States are analyzed using Hovmöller diagrams, grid point correlations, and traditional verification skill scoring (i.e., ETS; Equitable Threat Score). Although NCEP-WRF had a high positive error in total precipitation, spatial characteristics were similar to observations. For example, the spatial distribution of NCEP-WRF precipitation correlated better than NSSL-WRF for the Northern Plains. Hovmöller results exposed a delay in initiation and decay of diurnal precipitation by NCEP-WRF while both models had difficulty in reproducing the timing and location of propagating precipitation. ETS was highest for NSSL-WRF in all domains at all times. ETS was also higher in areas of propagating precipitation compared to areas of unorganized diurnal scattered precipitation. Monthly analysis identified unique differences between the two models in their abilities to correctly simulate the spatial distribution and zonal motion of precipitation through the warm season.

Whether the decadal shift of South Asia High intensity around the late 1970s exists or not

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xue, Xu; Chen, Wen; Nath, Debashis; Zhou, Dingwen

2015-05-01

This study compares the decadal means of the seasonal (June-July-August (JJA)) mean geopotential heights available from the NCEP1 and ERA-40 reanalysis data in the Northern Hemisphere. The interdecadal changes in the South Asia High (SAH) intensity derived from the reanalysis data are also compared with ground-based radiosonde observations and atmospheric model outputs. The JJA mean geopotential heights in the 1980s are distinctly larger than the 1970s in NCEP1 over most of the regions in the Northern Hemisphere, while no obvious difference is observed in ERA-40. The interannual variation of the SAH strength is very close in the two reanalysis data, so that it is appropriate to utilize the reanalysis data to study the interannual variation of SAH strength after removing the interdecadal trend. However, the discrepancy in SAH intensity between NCEP1 and ERA-40 mainly exists on the interdecadal time scale. The SAH intensity in the NCEP1 was close to that in the ERA-40 before the late 1970s but became remarkably stronger after the late 1970s, leading to a much larger decadal strengthening during the period 1970-1990. Based on the six radiosonde observation stations in the area of the SAH, the results indicate that the decadal reinforcing in the SAH strength occurs around the mid-1980s. Thus, NCEP1 may overestimate the decadal shift in the SAH intensity around the late 1970s, while ERA-40 may underestimate it. Much attention needs to be paid when we use the reanalysis data to study the decadal variability of the SAH intensity.

GPS PPP-derived precipitable water vapor retrieval based on Tm/Ps from multiple sources of meteorological data sets in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Hongxing; Yuan, Yunbin; Li, Wei; Ou, Jikun; Li, Ying; Zhang, Baocheng

2017-04-01

Weighted mean temperature (Tm) and pressure (Ps) are two parameters of great relevance to precipitable water vapor (PWV) retrieval from global positioning system (GPS) data. However, information about the Tm and Ps cannot be available for those GPS stations that are not colocated with meteorological sensors. To investigate the optimal GPS-PWV retrieval method for China, two enhanced Tm models, GM-Tm (temperature dependent) and GH-Tm (temperature independent), are developed. Additionally, the potentials of the Ps data from the two reanalysis data sets, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)-Department of Energy (DOE) Reanalysis II (NCEP II) and ERA-Interim, and from the empirical model GPT2w for GPS-PWV retrieval are investigated over China. To evaluate the performances of multisources Tm and Ps data for GPS-PWV retrieval, GPS data (2011-2013) collected from 22 stations of the Crustal Movement Observation Network of China (CMONOC) were processed by using the precise point positioning (PPP) technique, estimating the zenith tropospheric delay (ZTD) so as to be subsequently converted to GPS-PWV. The retrieved GPS-PWVs are compared with their counterparts derived from NCEP II and radiosonde data over China. The results show that (1) the GM-Tm model consistently shows the highest accuracy (with root mean square error of 2.3 K), and the GH-Tm model should be selected when temperature observations are not available, and that (2) the performances of Ps from NCEP II and ERA-Interim differ marginally for GPS-PWV retrieval, and significant seasonal variations are found in the agreement between the GPS-PWVs and the PWVs derived from NCEP II and radiosonde data over China.

Improving Incremental Balance in the GSI 3DVAR Analysis System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Errico, Ronald M.; Yang, Runhua; Kleist, Daryl T.; Parrish, David F.; Derber, John C.; Treadon, Russ

2008-01-01

The Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) analysis system is a unified global/regional 3DVAR analysis code that has been under development for several years at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/Environmental Modeling Center. It has recently been implemented into operations at NCEP in both the global and North American data assimilation systems (GDAS and NDAS). An important aspect of this development has been improving the balance of the analysis produced by GSI. The improved balance between variables has been achieved through the inclusion of a Tangent Linear Normal Mode Constraint (TLNMC). The TLNMC method has proven to be very robust and effective. The TLNMC as part of the global GSI system has resulted in substantial improvement in data assimilation both at NCEP and at the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO).

[Metabolic syndrome in adults from 20 to 40 years old in a rural Mexican community].

PubMed

Echavarría-Pinto, Mauro; Hernández-Lomelí, Adrián; Alcocer-Gamba, Marco Antonio; Morales-Flores, Héctor; Vázquez-Mellado, Alberto

2006-01-01

Metabolic syndrome is the main health problem in Mexico. Its two principal complications (ischemic cardiopathy and type-2 diabetes) are the two main causes of death in Mexico since 2000. To describe the prevalence of the metabolic syndrome in adults from 20 to 40 years old in a Mexican rural community (Senegal de Palomas, San Juan del Río, Querétaro) using the National Cholesterol Education Program (NCEP III) definition. A descriptive study with a random sample was carried out. We present a univariate analysis with a 95% confidence interval. 73 cases were studied. The prevalence of the metabolic syndrome was 45.2% slightly higher in men (48.4%) than in women (42.8%). The prevalence of hypertension was 27.3%. The prevalence of obesity was 26.1% using the definition of the WHO and this prevalence rises up to 49.4% using the definition of the Mexican Official Norm. 90.5% of women and 93.5% of men had low HDLc. The prevalence of metabolic syndrome in adults from 20 to 40 years old in this Mexican rural community is much higher than the national mean for the same age cohort. The results show the necessity to increase the research of our rural communities in order to identify the possible causes to this problem and to create therapeutic programs for patients with metabolic syndrome.

Prediction skill of tropical synoptic scale transients from ECMWF and NCEP ensemble prediction systems

DOE PAGES

Taraphdar, S.; Mukhopadhyay, P.; Leung, L. Ruby; ...

2016-12-05

The prediction skill of tropical synoptic scale transients (SSTR) such as monsoon low and depression during the boreal summer of 2007–2009 are assessed using high resolution ECMWF and NCEP TIGGE forecasts data. By analyzing 246 forecasts for lead times up to 10 days, it is found that the models have good skills in forecasting the planetary scale means but the skills of SSTR remain poor, with the latter showing no skill beyond 2 days for the global tropics and Indian region. Consistent forecast skills among precipitation, velocity potential, and vorticity provide evidence that convection is the primary process responsible formore » precipitation. The poor skills of SSTR can be attributed to the larger random error in the models as they fail to predict the locations and timings of SSTR. Strong correlation between the random error and synoptic precipitation suggests that the former starts to develop from regions of convection. As the NCEP model has larger biases of synoptic scale precipitation, it has a tendency to generate more random error that ultimately reduces the prediction skill of synoptic systems in that model. Finally, the larger biases in NCEP may be attributed to the model moist physics and/or coarser horizontal resolution compared to ECMWF.« less

Sea Ice in the NCEP Seasonal Forecast System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, X.; Saha, S.; Grumbine, R. W.; Bailey, D. A.; Carton, J.; Penny, S. G.

2017-12-01

Sea ice is known to play a significant role in the global climate system. For a weather or climate forecast system (CFS), it is important that the realistic distribution of sea ice is represented. Sea ice prediction is challenging; sea ice can form or melt, it can move with wind and/or ocean current; sea ice interacts with both the air above and ocean underneath, it influences by, and has impact on the air and ocean conditions. NCEP has developed coupled CFS (version 2, CFSv2) and also carried out CFS reanalysis (CFSR), which includes a coupled model with the NCEP global forecast system, a land model, an ocean model (GFDL MOM4), and a sea ice model. In this work, we present the NCEP coupled model, the CFSv2 sea ice component that includes a dynamic thermodynamic sea ice model and a simple "assimilation" scheme, how sea ice has been assimilated in CFSR, the characteristics of the sea ice from CFSR and CFSv2, and the improvements of sea ice needed for future seasonal prediction system, part of the Unified Global Coupled System (UGCS), which is being developed and under testing, including sea ice data assimilation with the Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (LETKF). Preliminary results from the UGCS testing will also be presented.

Prediction skill of tropical synoptic scale transients from ECMWF and NCEP ensemble prediction systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Taraphdar, S.; Mukhopadhyay, P.; Leung, L. Ruby

The prediction skill of tropical synoptic scale transients (SSTR) such as monsoon low and depression during the boreal summer of 2007–2009 are assessed using high resolution ECMWF and NCEP TIGGE forecasts data. By analyzing 246 forecasts for lead times up to 10 days, it is found that the models have good skills in forecasting the planetary scale means but the skills of SSTR remain poor, with the latter showing no skill beyond 2 days for the global tropics and Indian region. Consistent forecast skills among precipitation, velocity potential, and vorticity provide evidence that convection is the primary process responsible formore » precipitation. The poor skills of SSTR can be attributed to the larger random error in the models as they fail to predict the locations and timings of SSTR. Strong correlation between the random error and synoptic precipitation suggests that the former starts to develop from regions of convection. As the NCEP model has larger biases of synoptic scale precipitation, it has a tendency to generate more random error that ultimately reduces the prediction skill of synoptic systems in that model. Finally, the larger biases in NCEP may be attributed to the model moist physics and/or coarser horizontal resolution compared to ECMWF.« less

Metabolic Syndrome in Obese Thai Children: Defined Using Modified 'The National Cholesterol Education Program/Adult Treatment Panel III' Criteria.

PubMed

Rerksuppaphol, Sanguansak; Rerksuppaphol, Lakkana

2015-11-01

Obesity is considered to be a risk of metabolic syndrome; however, data on the prevalence of metabolic syndrome in Thai obese children are scarce. The present study aims to determine the prevalence of metabolic syndrome in Thai obese children. A cross-sectional study was conducted on 113 obese children who were students of a public elementary school in Ongkharak district, Thailand, in 2013. Anthropometric data, blood pressure and biochemical parameters were measured. Metabolic syndrome was defined using modified 'the National Cholesterol Education Program/Adult Treatment Panel III (NCEP/ATPIII)' criteria. The prevalence of metabolic syndrome in obese children was 50.4%. Children with metabolic syndrome had significantly higher waist circumference (86.9 vs. 82.4 cm, p-value = 0.049), biceps skinfold thickness (17.2 vs. 14.9 mm, p-value = 0.017), suprailiac skinfold thickness (36.5 vs. 31.8 mm, p-value = 0.019), systolic blood pressure (119.7 vs. 112.6 mmHg, p-value = 0.007), diastolic blood pressure (73.7 vs. 69.0 mmHg, p-value = 0.022), fasting blood glucose (97.4 vs. 93.6 mg/dL, p-value = 0.009) and triglyceride levels (140.0 vs. 85.6 mg/dL, p-value < 0.001) than those without metabolic syndrome. HDL-cholesterol was significantly lower in children with metabolic syndrome than those in without metabolic syndrome (48.7 vs. 63.1 mg/dL, p-value < 0.001). Of the sample, approximately half of children with obesity had metabolic syndrome. The prevalence of metabolic syndrome appears to be on the increase. Strategies for childhood obesity and metabolic syndrome prevention are urgently needed for Thai children.

Intra-Seasonal Monthly Oscillations in Stratospheric NCEP Data and Model Results

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mayr, H. G.; Mengel, J. G.; Huang, F. T.; Nash, E. R.

2009-01-01

Intra-seasonal oscillations (ISO) are observed in the zonal-mean of mesospheric wind and temperature measurements-and the numerical spectral model (NSM) generates such oscillations. Relatively large temperature ISO are evident also in stratospheric CPC (NCEP) data at high latitudes, where the NSM produces amplitudes around 3 K at 30 km. Analyzing the NCEP data for the years 1996-2006, we find in Fourier spectra signatures of oscillations with periods between 1.7 and 3 months. With statistical confidence levels exceeding 70%, the spectral features are induced by nonlinear interactions involving the annual and semi-annual variations. The synthesized data show for the 10-year average that the temperature ISO peak in winter, having amplitudes close to 4 K. The synthesized complete spectrum for periods around 2 months produces oscillations, varying from year to year, which can reach peak amplitudes of 15 and 5 K respectively at northern and southern polar latitudes.

Sensitivity of Drought Processes to Runoff Parameterizations in East Asia with the Community Land Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, J. B.; Um, M. J.; Kim, Y.

2016-12-01

Drought is one of the most powerful and extensive disasters and has the highest annual average damage among all the disasters. Focusing on East Asia, where over one fifth of all the people in the world live, drought has impacted as well as been projected to impact the region significantly. .Therefore it is critical to reasonably simulate the drought phenomenon in the region and thus this study would focus on the reproducibility of drought with the NCAR CLM. In this study, we examine the propagation of drought processes with different runoff parameterization of CLM in East Asia. Two different schemes are used; TOPMODEL-based and VIC-based schemes, which differentiate the result of runoff through the surface and subsurface runoff parameterization. CLM with different runoff scheme are driven with two atmospheric forcings from CRU/NCEP and NCEP reanalysis data. Specifically, propagation of drought from meteorological, agricultural to hydrologic drought is investigated with different drought indices, estimated with not only model simulated results but also observational data. The indices include the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), standardized runoff index (SRI) and standardized soil moisture index (SSMI). Based on these indices, the drought characteristics such as intensity, frequency and spatial extent are investigated. At last, such drought assessments would reveal the possible model deficiencies in East Asia. AcknowledgementsThis work was supported by Basic Science Research Program through the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) funded by the Ministry of Science, ICT & Future Planning (2015R1C1A2A01054800) and the Korea Meteorological Administration R&D Program under Grant KMIPA 2015-6180.

Metabolic syndrome in the Mediterranean region: Current status.

PubMed

Anagnostis, Panagiotis

2012-01-01

Metabolic syndrome (MetS) is a cluster of metabolic abnormalities including abdominal obesity, impaired fasting glucose, hypertension and dyslipidemia. It seems to affect about one-fourth to one-fifth of the Mediterranean population, and its prevalence increases with age, being similar for both sexes and depending on the region and the definition used, with the National Cholesterol Education Program-Adult Treatment Panel-III (NCEP-ATPIII) definition being the most effective in the identification of glucose intolerance and cardiovascular risk. Except for these, MetS is associated with fatty liver disease, some forms of cancer, hypogonadism, and vascular dementia. The Mediterranean diet seems to be an ideal diet in patients with MetS, being rich in fibre, monounsaturated and polyunsaturated fats, and low in animal protein; and decreases the prevalence of MetS and cardiovascular disease risk. Except for weight loss, multifactorial intervention including insulin resistance reduction and normoglycemia, management of dyslipidemia, optimizing blood pressure and administration of low-dose aspirin for patients at high or moderately high cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk are additional targets. The present review provides current understanding about MetS in the Mediterranean region, focusing on its prevalence, clinical significance, and therapeutic strategy.

Data Serving for ASIRI Participants

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-09-30

Indian satellite INSAT 3D visible satellite image (April 24, 2015) with select WHOI mooring atmospheric and air- sea fluxes compared the NASA MERRA...evaluated the Bay of Bengal fluxes from field studies against a number of re-analyses (ECMWF, NCEP-1 and NCEP-2, NASA MERRA), and is currently...fluxes from the air-sea flux WHOI mooring at 18N and atmospheric reanalysis air-sea fluxes from NASA MERRA for a week in April 2015. It also shows the

NCEP Air Quality Forecast(AQF). NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC

Science.gov Websites

19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 Select Cycle: 12Z 06Z Select Field: target(4Z-4Z) day_1 O3 1h max target(4Z-4Z) day_2 O3 1h max target(4Z-4Z) day_1 O3 8h max target(4Z-4Z) day_2 O3 8h max Select

Seasonal evaluation of evapotranspiration fluxes from MODIS satellite and mesoscale model downscaled global reanalysis datasets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Srivastava, Prashant K.; Han, Dawei; Islam, Tanvir; Petropoulos, George P.; Gupta, Manika; Dai, Qiang

2016-04-01

Reference evapotranspiration (ETo) is an important variable in hydrological modeling, which is not always available, especially for ungauged catchments. Satellite data, such as those available from the MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), and global datasets via the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis (ERA) interim and National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis are important sources of information for ETo. This study explored the seasonal performances of MODIS (MOD16) and Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model downscaled global reanalysis datasets, such as ERA interim and NCEP-derived ETo, against ground-based datasets. Overall, on the basis of the statistical metrics computed, ETo derived from ERA interim and MODIS were more accurate in comparison to the estimates from NCEP for all the seasons. The pooled datasets also revealed a similar performance to the seasonal assessment with higher agreement for the ERA interim (r = 0.96, RMSE = 2.76 mm/8 days; bias = 0.24 mm/8 days), followed by MODIS (r = 0.95, RMSE = 7.66 mm/8 days; bias = -7.17 mm/8 days) and NCEP (r = 0.76, RMSE = 11.81 mm/8 days; bias = -10.20 mm/8 days). The only limitation with downscaling ERA interim reanalysis datasets using WRF is that it is time-consuming in contrast to the readily available MODIS operational product for use in mesoscale studies and practical applications.

Advancing Best Practices for the Formulation of Localized Sea Level Rise/Coastal Inundation Extremes Scenarios for Military Installations in the Pacific Islands

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-07-14

Development Program SLP - Sea Level Pressure SOI - Southern Oscillation Index SON - Statement of Need SST - Sea Surface Temperature iv SWL - Still Water...Level Pressure ( SLP ) from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis). Midway has known wave setup (Aucan et al., 2012) so we explored to what extent we could find an 12...Guam ONI 0.9 Kwajalein ONI 1.1 Pago Pago ONI 1.0 Honolulu SLP 1.3 Nawiliwili SLP 1.4 Kahului SLP 1.2 Hilo SLP 1.3 Mokuoloe SLP 1.2 Naha PDO 1.0 Kawaihae

Tropospheric Airborne Meteorological Data Reporting (TAMDAR) Sensor Development

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Daniels, Taumi S.

2002-01-01

In response to recommendations from the National Aviation Weather Program Council, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is working with industry to develop an electronic pilot reporting capability for small aircraft. This paper describes the Tropospheric Airborne Meteorological Data Reporting (TAMDAR) sensor development effort. NASA is working with industry to develop a sensor capable of measuring temperature, relative humidity, magnetic heading, pressure, icing, and average turbulence energy dissipation. Users of the data include National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) forecast modelers, air traffic controllers, flight service stations, airline operation centers, and pilots. Preliminary results from flight tests are presented.

Testing forward model against OCO-2 and TANSO-FTS/GOSAT observed spectra in near infrared range

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zadvornykh, Ilya V.; Gribanov, Konstantin G.

2015-11-01

An existing software package FIRE-ARMS (Fine InfraRed Explorer for Atmospheric Remote MeasurementS) was modified by embedding vector radiative transfer model VLIDORT. Thus the program tool includes both thermal (TIR) and near infrared (NIR) regions. We performed forward simulation of near infrared spectra on the top of the atmosphere for outgoing radiation accounting multiple scattering in cloudless atmosphere. Simulated spectra are compared with spectra measured by TANSO-FTS/GOSAT and OCO-2 in the condition of cloudless atmosphere over Western Siberia. NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data were used to complete model atmosphere.

Family physician's knowledge, beliefs, and self-reported practice patterns regarding hyperlipidemia: a National Research Network (NRN) survey.

PubMed

Eaton, Charles B; Galliher, James M; McBride, Patrick E; Bonham, Aaron J; Kappus, Jennifer A; Hickner, John

2006-01-01

Family physicians have the potential to make a major impact on reducing the burden of cardiovascular disease through the optimal assessment and management of hyperlipidemia. We were interested in assessing the knowledge, beliefs, and self-reported practice patterns of a representative sample of family physicians regarding the assessment and management of hyperlipidemia 2 years after the release of the evidence-based National Cholesterol Education Program (NCEP) Adult Treatment Panel (ATP) III guidelines. A 33-item survey was mailed to a random sample (N = 1200) of members of the American Academy of Family Physicians in April of 2004, with 2 follow-up mailings to nonresponders. Physicians were queried about sociodemographic characteristics, their knowledge, attitudes, and self-reported practice patterns regarding the assessment and management of hyperlipidemia. Four case scenarios also were presented. Response rate was 58%. Over 90% of surveyed family physicians screened adults for hyperlipidemia as part of a cardiovascular disease prevention strategy. Most (89%) did this screening by themselves without the support of office staff, and 36% reported routine use of a flow sheet. Most had heard of the ATP III guidelines (85%), but only 13% had read them carefully. Only 17% of respondents used a coronary heart disease (CHD) risk calculator usually or always. Over 90% of those responding reported using low-density lipoprotein (LDL) as the treatment goal but only 76% reported using non-high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol as a secondary goal of therapy. We found a large variability in knowledge, beliefs, and practice patterns among practicing family physicians. We found general agreement on universal screening of adults for hyperlipidemia as part of cardiovascular disease prevention strategy and use of LDL cholesterol as a treatment goal. Many other aspects of the NCEP ATP III guidelines, such as use of a systematic, multidisciplinary approach, using non-HDL cholesterol as a secondary goal, routinely using a CHD risk calculator for risk assessment to guide cholesterol management, have not yet penetrated into self-reported clinical practice.

Achieving low-density lipoprotein cholesterol goals in high-risk patients in managed care: comparison of rosuvastatin, atorvastatin, and simvastatin in the SOLAR trial.

PubMed

Insull, William; Ghali, Jalal K; Hassman, David R; Y As, Joseph W; Gandhi, Sanjay K; Miller, Elinor

2007-05-01

To evaluate attainment of the National Cholesterol Education Program (NCEP) Adult Treatment Panel (ATP) III low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) goal of less than 100 mg/dL with statin treatments in managed care patients at high risk for coronary heart disease. In a randomized, open-label, multicenter trial (SOLAR [Satisfying Optimal LDL-C ATP III goals with Rosuvastatin]) performed at 145 US clinical centers from June 5, 2002 to July 12, 2004, high-risk men and women in a managed care population received typical starting doses of rosuvastatin (10 mg/d), atorvastatin (10 mg/d), or simvastatin (20 mg/d) for 6 weeks. Those who did not meet the LDL-C target of less than 100 mg/dL at 6 weeks had their dose titrated (doubled), and all patients were followed up for another 6 weeks. A total of 1632 patients were randomized to 1 of the 3 treatment regimens. After 6 weeks, 65% of patients taking rosuvastatin reached the LDL-C target of less than 100 mg/dL vs 41% with atorvastatin and 39% with simvastatin (P<.001 vs rosuvastatin for both). After 12 weeks, 76% of patients taking rosuvastatin reached the LDL-C target of less than 100 mg/dL vs 58% with atorvastatin and 53% with simvastatin (P<.001 vs rosuvastatin for both). Reductions in the LDL-C level, total cholesterol level, non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (non-HDL-C) level, and non-HDL-C/HDL-C ratio were significantly greater with rosuvastatin at both 6 and 12 weeks compared with the other statins. Adverse events were similar in type and frequency in all treatment groups, and only 3% of all patients discontinued treatment because of adverse events. No myopathy was observed, no clinically important impact on renal function was attributed to study medications, and clinically important increases in serum transaminases were rare. In a managed care population, 10 mg of rosuvastatin treatment resulted in more patients reaching the NCEP ATP III LDL-C goal compared with 10 mg of atorvastatin and 20 mg of simvastatin, potentially reducing the need for titration visits.

Efficacy and tolerability of two different formulations of atorvastatin in Korean patients with hypercholesterolemia: a multicenter, prospective, randomized clinical trial.

PubMed

Lee, Ju-Hee; Kim, Sang-Hyun; Choi, Dong-Ju; Tahk, Seung-Jea; Yoon, Jung-Han; Choi, Si Wan; Hong, Taek-Jong; Kim, Hyo-Soo

2017-01-01

This study was designed to compare the efficacy and tolerability of the generic formulation (Atorva ® ) and the reference formulation (Lipitor ® ) of atorvastatin, both at a dosage of 20 mg once daily. This study was a prospective open-label, randomized controlled study. Hypercholesterolemic patients who had not achieved low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol goals according to the National Cholesterol Education Program Adult Treatment Panel III (NCEP-ATP III) guideline were randomized to generic formulation or reference formulation of atorvastatin. The primary end point was the percent change of blood LDL cholesterol at 8 weeks from the baseline. The secondary end points included the percent changes of total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol, triglyceride (TG), apolipoprotein B (ApoB), and apolipoprotein A1 (ApoA1) levels, the percent changes of ApoB/ApoA1 and total cholesterol/HDL cholesterol ratios, and the change in high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP) levels. The LDL cholesterol goal achievement rate according to the NCEP-ATP III guideline was also evaluated. Three hundred and seventy-six patients were randomized, and 346 patients (176 in the generic group and 170 in the reference group) completed the study. After the 8 weeks of treatment, LDL cholesterol level was significantly decreased in both the groups, and the decrement was comparable between the two groups (-43.9%±15.3% in the generic group, -43.3%±17.0% in the reference group, P =0.705). The percent changes of total cholesterol, HDL cholesterol, TG, ApoB, ApoA1, ApoB/ApoA1 ratio, total cholesterol/HDL cholesterol ratio, and hsCRP showed insignificant difference between the two groups. However, LDL cholesterol goal achievement rate was significantly higher in the generic group compared to the reference group (90.6% vs 83.0%, P =0.039) in per-protocol analysis. Adverse event rate was comparable between the two groups (12.0% vs 13.7%, P =0.804). The generic formulation of atorvastatin 20 mg was not inferior to the reference formulation of atorvastatin 20 mg in the management of hypercholesterolemia.

Efficacy and tolerability of two different formulations of atorvastatin in Korean patients with hypercholesterolemia: a multicenter, prospective, randomized clinical trial

PubMed Central

Lee, Ju-Hee; Kim, Sang-Hyun; Choi, Dong-Ju; Tahk, Seung-Jea; Yoon, Jung-Han; Choi, Si Wan; Hong, Taek-Jong; Kim, Hyo-Soo

2017-01-01

Purpose This study was designed to compare the efficacy and tolerability of the generic formulation (Atorva®) and the reference formulation (Lipitor®) of atorvastatin, both at a dosage of 20 mg once daily. Methods This study was a prospective open-label, randomized controlled study. Hypercholesterolemic patients who had not achieved low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol goals according to the National Cholesterol Education Program Adult Treatment Panel III (NCEP-ATP III) guideline were randomized to generic formulation or reference formulation of atorvastatin. The primary end point was the percent change of blood LDL cholesterol at 8 weeks from the baseline. The secondary end points included the percent changes of total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol, triglyceride (TG), apolipoprotein B (ApoB), and apolipoprotein A1 (ApoA1) levels, the percent changes of ApoB/ApoA1 and total cholesterol/HDL cholesterol ratios, and the change in high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP) levels. The LDL cholesterol goal achievement rate according to the NCEP-ATP III guideline was also evaluated. Results Three hundred and seventy-six patients were randomized, and 346 patients (176 in the generic group and 170 in the reference group) completed the study. After the 8 weeks of treatment, LDL cholesterol level was significantly decreased in both the groups, and the decrement was comparable between the two groups (−43.9%±15.3% in the generic group, −43.3%±17.0% in the reference group, P=0.705). The percent changes of total cholesterol, HDL cholesterol, TG, ApoB, ApoA1, ApoB/ApoA1 ratio, total cholesterol/HDL cholesterol ratio, and hsCRP showed insignificant difference between the two groups. However, LDL cholesterol goal achievement rate was significantly higher in the generic group compared to the reference group (90.6% vs 83.0%, P=0.039) in per-protocol analysis. Adverse event rate was comparable between the two groups (12.0% vs 13.7%, P=0.804). Conclusion The generic formulation of atorvastatin 20 mg was not inferior to the reference formulation of atorvastatin 20 mg in the management of hypercholesterolemia. PMID:28814835

Uncovering Metabolic Syndrome among Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Patients in a Tertiary Care Hospital, India.

PubMed

Gupta, Kamlesh Kumar; Singh, Jitendra; Gupta, Pradeep; Patel, M L; Kumar, Vivek; Chaudhary, Shyam Chand

2017-05-01

Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) is known to cause various systemic problems including Metabolic Syndrome (MetS). MetS is a group of cardiovascular risk factors. By assessing MetS, one can assess the cardiovascular disease risk. There is increasing evidence of MetS in COPD patients. However, the frequency of MetS and its individual components are not still been clearly shown which is likely to vary in different population. To know the extent of association of metabolic syndrome and its components in patients with COPD. This study was designed as an analytical case control study. Ninety cases of COPD satisfying the inclusion criteria and 45 healthy volunteer subjects as controls were recruited over 18 months duration. Simple random sampling method was used to select all cases attending outdoor and indoor medicine department. All subjects (cases and controls) were matched for age, sex, occupation and socioeconomic status. Prior to participation in the study, written informed consent was taken from all subjects. All included subjects underwent a detailed history, clinical examination and laboratorial analysis. All subjects were assessed for MetS by using National Cholesterol Education Program-Third Adult Treatment Panel (NCEP ATP III) and International Diabetic Federation (IDF) criteria. The present study demonstrated Metabolic Syndrome (MetS) in COPD according to NCEP ATP III and IDF criteria as 14 (15.56%) and 30 (33.33%) while there was no association of MetS with controls. The frequency of its component such as abdominal obesity, systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, elevated triglyceride, reduced HDL-C and elevated fasting glucose respectively was 71 (78.89%), 25 (26.67%), 12 (13.33%), 18 (20%), 23 (25.56%) and 17 (18.78%) respectively. Dyslipidemia was found in 36 (40%) cases of COPD including 16 (17.78%) cases of elevated LDL cholesterol. Our study concluded that MetS is frequent in COPD patients as compared to general population. Therefore, a comprehensive medical approach to screen all COPD patients for MetS should be done there to lower the significant risk of cardiovascular events in patients with COPD.

Diagnostic Comparison of Meteorological Analyses during the 2002 Antarctic Winter

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Manney, Gloria L.; Allen, Douglas R.; Kruger, Kirstin; Naujokat, Barbara; Santee, Michelle L.; Sabutis, Joseph L.; Pawson, Steven; Swinbank, Richard; Randall, Cora E.; Simmons, Adrian J.;

A Network of Direct Broadcast Antenna Systems to Provide Real-Time Infrared and Microwave Sounder Data for Numerical Weather Prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gumley, L.

2013-12-01

The Space Science and Engineering Center at the University of Wisconsin-Madison is creating a network of direct broadcast satellite data reception stations to acquire and process infrared and microwave sounder data in real-time from polar orbiting meteorological satellites and deliver the resulting products to NOAA with low latency for assimilation in NCEP numerical weather prediction models. The network will include 4 antenna sites that will be operated directly by SSEC, including Madison WI, Honolulu HI, Miami FL, and Mayaguez PR. The network will also include partner antenna sites not directly controlled by SSEC, including Corvallis OR, Monterey CA, Suitland MD, Fairbanks AK, and Guam. All of the antenna sites will have a combined X/L-band reception system capable of receiving data via direct broadcast from polar orbiting satellites including Suomi NPP and JPSS-1, Metop-A/B, POES,Terra, and Aqua. Each site will collect raw data from these satellites locally, process it to Level 1 (SDR) and Level 2 (EDR) products, and transmit the products back to SSEC for delivery to NOAA/NCEP. The primary purpose of the antenna systems is to provide real-time infrared and microwave sounder data from Metop and Suomi-NPP to NOAA to support data assimilation for NOAA/NCEP operational numerical weather prediction models. At present, NOAA/NCEP use of advanced infrared (CrIS, IASI, AIRS) and microwave (ATMS, AMSU) sounder data over North America in NWP data assimilation is limited because of the latency of the products in relation to the cutoff times for assimilation runs. This network will deliver infrared and microwave sounder data to NCEP with the lowest latency possible, via the reception and processing of data received via direct broadcast. CIMSS/SSEC is managing the procurement and installation of the antenna systems at the two new sites, and will operate the stations remotely. NOAA will establish the reception priorities (Metop and SNPP will be at the highest priority) and SSEC will set the reception schedule to acquire data from these satellites, and any other satellites at lower priority as determined jointly by NOAA, CIMSS/SSEC, and the antenna site hosts. SSEC is providing a product generation server at each site (where applicable) as part of the installed hardware to create satellite products in real-time. The host locations will provide the necessary network resources to enable infrared sounder (CrIS, IASI, and AIRS) and microwave sounder (ATMS and AMSU) data to be sent back to SSEC (and hence to NOAA/NCEP) with low latency (< 15 minutes). This presentation will described how the network realizes the goal of providing data to end users within 15 minutes of observation, and will give examples of the positive impact already observed on NCEP forecast model skill from assimilating real-time infrared and microwave sounder data in the NAM regional domain.

How well does the metabolic syndrome defined by five definitions predict incident diabetes and incident coronary heart disease in a Chinese population?

PubMed

Wang, Jian-jun; Li, Hong-bing; Kinnunen, Leena; Hu, Gang; Järvinen, Tiina M; Miettinen, Maija E; Yuan, Shenyuan; Tuomilehto, Jaakko

2007-05-01

We evaluate the ability of the metabolic syndrome (MetS) defined by five definitions for predicting both incident CHD and diabetes combined, diabetes alone, and CHD alone in a Chinese population. The screening survey for type 2 diabetes was conducted in 1994. A follow-up study of 541 high-risk non-diabetic individuals who were free of CHD at baseline was carried out in 1999 in Beijing area. The MetS was defined by the World Health Organization (WHO), European Group for the Study of Insulin Resistance (EGIR), American College of Endocrinology (ACE), the International Diabetes Federation (IDF), and the National Cholesterol Education Program and the American Heart Association (AHA) (updated NCEP) criteria. From a multiple logistic regression adjusting for age, sex, education, occupation, smoking, family history of diabetes, and total cholesterol, the relative risk of the ACE-defined MetS for incident diabetes alone (67 cases) was 2.29 (95% CI, 1.20-4.34). The MetS defined by the five definitions was associated with a 1.8-3.9 times increased risk for both incident CHD and diabetes combined (59 cases), and with a 1.9-3.0 times for total incident diabetes (126 cases). None of the five definitions predicted either incident CHD alone (177 cases) or total incident CHD (236 cases). In conclusion, the MetS defined by the current definitions appears to be more effective at predicting incident diabetes.

Relationship of abdominal obesity with cardiovascular disease, diabetes and hyperlipidaemia in Spain.

PubMed

Casanueva, Felipe F; Moreno, Basilio; Rodríguez-Azeredo, Rosario; Massien, Christine; Conthe, Pedro; Formiguera, Xavier; Barrios, Vivencio; Balkau, Beberly

2010-07-01

To evaluate the relevance of obesity and abdominal obesity in the prevalence of cardiovascular disease (CVD), diabetes mellitus, hyperlipidaemia and hypertension in primary care patients and to ascertain whether waist circumference (WC) measurement should be included in routine clinical practice in addition to body mass index (BMI). As part of the IDEA study, primary care physicians from Spain recruited patients aged 18-80 years. WC and BMI and the presence of CVD, diabetes mellitus, hyperlipidaemia and hypertension were recorded. Finally, 17 980 were analysed. An age-related increase in adiposity was observed. Overall 33% were obese by BMI, and 51% of subjects presented abdominal obesity by the National Cholesterol Education Program Adult Treatment Panel III (NCEP-ATPIII) (WC > 102 cm for men and > 88 cm for women). Although there was a correlation between BMI and WC, they presented different distribution patterns. Women, but not men, with a high level of education, professional activity and smoking were associated with a lower WC. Abdominal obesity was significantly associated with CVD. Some subjects with abdominal obesity but lean by BMI, showed an increased prevalence of CVD and diabetes. Furthermore, abdominal obesity was strongly associated with dyslipidaemia and hypertension. Half of the primary care patients studied showed abdominal obesity as measured by WC, whereas one-third was obese by BMI. Abdominal obesity was strongly associated with CVD and diabetes, even in patients lean by BMI. WC should be included in the routine clinical practice in addition to BMI.

Hindcast of breaking waves and its impact at an island sheltered coast, Karwar

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dora, G. Udhaba; Kumar, V. Sanil

2018-01-01

Variability in the characteristics of depth-induced wave breakers along a non-uniform coastal topography and its impact on the morpho-sedimentary processes is examined at the island sheltered wave-dominated micro-tidal coast, Karwar, west coast of India. Waves are simulated using the coupled wind wave model, SWAN nested in WAVEWATCH III, forced by the reanalysis winds from different sources (NCEP/NCAR, ECMWF, and NCEP/CFSR). Impact of the wave breakers is evaluated through mean longshore current and sediment transport for various wave energy conditions across different coastal morphology. Study revealed that the NCEP/CFSR wind is comparatively reasonable in simulation of nearshore waves using the SWAN model nested by 2D wave spectra generated from WAVEWATCH III. The Galvin formula for estimating mean longshore current using the crest wave period and the Kamphuis approximation for longshore sediment transport is observed realistically at the sheltered coastal environment while the coast interacts with spilling and plunging breakers.

Improving Forecast Skill by Assimilation of AIRS Cloud Cleared Radiances RiCC

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Susskind, Joel; Rosenberg, Robert I.; Iredell, Lena

2015-01-01

ECMWF, NCEP, and GMAO routinely assimilate radiosonde and other in-situ observations along with satellite IR and MW Sounder radiance observations. NCEP and GMAO use the NCEP GSI Data Assimilation System (DAS).GSI DAS assimilates AIRS, CrIS, IASI channel radiances Ri on a channel-by-channel, case-by-case basis, only for those channels i thought to be unaffected by cloud cover. This test excludes Ri for most tropospheric sounding channels under partial cloud cover conditions. AIRS Version-6 RiCC is a derived quantity representative of what AIRS channel i would have seen if the AIRS FOR were cloud free. All values of RiCC have case-by-case error estimates RiCC associated with them. Our experiments present to the GSI QCd values of AIRS RiCC in place of AIRS Ri observations. GSI DAS assimilates only those values of RiCC it thinks are cloud free. This potentially allows for better coverage of assimilated QCd values of RiCC as compared to Ri.

AWIPS II in the University Community: Unidata's efforts and capabilities of the software

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramamurthy, Mohan; James, Michael

2015-04-01

The Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System, version II (AWIPS II) is a weather forecasting, display and analysis tool that is used by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/National Weather Service (NOAA/NWS) and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) to ingest analyze and disseminate operational weather data. The AWIPS II software is built on a Service Oriented Architecture, takes advantage of open source software, and its design affords expandability, flexibility, and portability. Since many university meteorology programs are eager to use the same tools used by NWS forecasters, Unidata community interest in AWIPS II is high. The Unidata Program Center (UPC) has worked closely with NCEP staff during AWIPS II development in order to devise a way to make it available to the university. The Unidata AWIPS II software was released in beta form in 2014, and it incorporates a number of key changes to the baseline U. S. National Weather Service release to process and display additional data formats and run all components in a single-server standalone configuration. In addition to making available open-source instances of the software libraries that can be downloaded and run at any university, Unidata has also deployed the data-server side of AWIPS II, known as EDEX, in the Amazon Web Service and Microsoft Azure cloud environments. In this set up, universities receive all of the data from remote cloud instances, while they only have to run the AWIPS II client, known as CAVE, to analyze and visualize the data. In this presentation, we will describe Unidata's AWIPS II efforts, including the capabilities of the software in visualizing many different types of real-time meteorological data and its myriad uses in university and other settings.

Hydrological responses to dynamically and statistically downscaled climate model output

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wilby, R.L.; Hay, L.E.; Gutowski, W.J.; Arritt, R.W.; Takle, E.S.; Pan, Z.; Leavesley, G.H.; Clark, M.P.

2000-01-01

Daily rainfall and surface temperature series were simulated for the Animas River basin, Colorado using dynamically and statistically downscaled output from the National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) re-analysis. A distributed hydrological model was then applied to the downscaled data. Relative to raw NCEP output, downscaled climate variables provided more realistic stimulations of basin scale hydrology. However, the results highlight the sensitivity of modeled processes to the choice of downscaling technique, and point to the need for caution when interpreting future hydrological scenarios.

Monitoring the Global Soil Moisture Climatology Using GLDAS/LIS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meng, J.; Mitchell, K.; Wei, H.; Gottschalck, J.

2006-05-01

Soil moisture plays a crucial role in the terrestrial water cycle through governing the process of partitioning precipitation among infiltration, runoff and evaporation. Accurate assessment of soil moisture and other land states, namely, soil temperature, snowpack, and vegetation, is critical in numerical environmental prediction systems because of their regulation of surface water and energy fluxes between the surface and atmosphere over a variety of spatial and temporal scales. The Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) is developed, jointly by NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) and NOAA National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), to perform high-quality global land surface simulation using state-of-art land surface models and further minimizing the errors of simulation by constraining the models with observation- based precipitation, and satellite land data assimilation techniques. The GLDAS-based Land Information System (LIS) infrastructure has been installed on the NCEP supercomputer that serves the operational weather and climate prediction systems. In this experiment, the Noah land surface model is offline executed within the GLDAS/LIS infrastructure, driven by the NCEP Global Reanalysis-2 (GR2) and the CPC Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP). We use the same Noah code that is coupled to the operational NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS) for weather prediction and test bed versions of the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) for seasonal prediction. For assessment, it is crucial that this uncoupled GLDAS/Noah uses exactly the same Noah code (and soil and vegetation parameters therein), and executes with the same horizontal grid, landmask, terrain field, soil and vegetation types, seasonal cycle of green vegetation fraction and surface albedo as in the coupled GFS/Noah and CFS/Noah. This execution is for the 25-year period of 1980-2005, starting with a pre-execution 10-year spin-up. This 25-year GLDAS/Noah global land climatology will be used for both climate variability assessment and as a source of land initial conditions for ensemble CFS/Noah seasonal hindcast experiments. Finally, this GLDAS/Noah climatology will serve as the foundation for a global drought/flood monitoring system that includes near realtime daily updates of the global land states.

Assimilation of Quality Controlled AIRS Temperature Profiles using the NCEP GFS

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Susskind, Joel; Reale, Oreste; Iredell, Lena; Rosenberg, Robert

2013-01-01

We have previously conducted a number of data assimilation experiments using AIRS Version-5 quality controlled temperature profiles as a step toward finding an optimum balance of spatial coverage and sounding accuracy with regard to improving forecast skill. The data assimilation and forecast system we used was the Goddard Earth Observing System Model , Version-5 (GEOS-5) Data Assimilation System (DAS), which represents a combination of the NASA GEOS-5 forecast model with the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) operational Grid Point Statistical Interpolation (GSI) global analysis scheme. All analyses and forecasts were run at a 0.5deg x 0.625deg spatial resolution. Data assimilation experiments were conducted in four different seasons, each in a different year. Three different sets of data assimilation experiments were run during each time period: Control; AIRS T(p); and AIRS Radiance. In the "Control" analysis, all the data used operationally by NCEP was assimilated, but no AIRS data was assimilated. Radiances from the Aqua AMSU-A instrument were also assimilated operationally by NCEP and are included in the "Control". The AIRS Radiance assimilation adds AIRS observed radiance observations for a select set of channels to the data set being assimilated, as done operationally by NCEP. In the AIRS T(p) assimilation, all information used in the Control was assimilated as well as Quality Controlled AIRS Version-5 temperature profiles, i.e., AIRS T(p) information was substituted for AIRS radiance information. The AIRS Version-5 temperature profiles were presented to the GSI analysis as rawinsonde profiles, assimilated down to a case-by-case appropriate pressure level p(sub best) determined using the Quality Control procedure. Version-5 also determines case-by-case, level-by-level error estimates of the temperature profiles, which were used as the uncertainty of each temperature measurement. These experiments using GEOS-5 have shown that forecasts resulting from analyses using the AIRS T(p) assimilation system were superior to those from the Radiance assimilation system, both with regard to global 7 day forecast skill and also the ability to predict storm tracks and intensity.

Lower Stratospheric Temperature Differences Between Meteorological Analyses in two cold Arctic Winters and their Impact on Polar Processing Studies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Manney, Gloria L.; Sabutis, Joseph L.; Pawson, Steven; Santee, Michelle L.; Naujokat, Barbara; Swinbank, Richard; Gelman, Melvyn E.; Ebisuzaki, Wesley; Atlas, Robert (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

A quantitative intercomparison of six meteorological analyses is presented for the cold 1999-2000 and 1995-1996 Arctic winters. The impacts of using different analyzed temperatures in calculations of polar stratospheric cloud (PSC) formation potential, and of different winds in idealized trajectory-based temperature histories, are substantial. The area with temperatures below a PSC formation threshold commonly varies by approximately 25% among the analyses, with differences of over 50% at some times/locations. Freie University at Berlin analyses are often colder than others at T is less than or approximately 205 K. Biases between analyses vary from year to year; in January 2000. U.K. Met Office analyses were coldest and National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) analyses warmest. while NCEP analyses were usually coldest in 1995-1996 and Met Office or NCEP[National Center for Atmospheric Research Reanalysis (REAN) warmest. European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) temperatures agreed better with other analyses in 1999-2000, after improvements in the assimilation model. than in 1995-1996. Case-studies of temperature histories show substantial differences using Met Office, NCEP, REAN and NASA Data Assimilation Office (DAO) analyses. In January 2000 (when a large cold region was centered in the polar vortex), qualitatively similar results were obtained for all analyses. However, in February 2000 (a much warmer period) and in January and February 1996 (comparably cold to January 2000 but with large cold regions near the polar vortex edge), distributions of "potential PSC lifetimes" and total time spent below a PSC formation threshold varied significantly among the analyses. Largest peaks in "PSC lifetime" distributions in January 2000 were at 4-6 and 11-14 days. while in the 1996 periods, they were at 1-3 days. Thus different meteorological conditions in comparably cold winters had a large impact on expectations for PSC formation and on the discrepancies between different meteorological analyses. Met Office. NCEP, REAN, ECMWF and DAO analyses are commonly used for trajectory calculations and in chemical transport models; the choice of which analysis to use can strongly influence the results of such studies.

The stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation in the NCEP reanalyses: Climatological structures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huesmann, Amihan S.; Hitchman, Matthew H.

2001-06-01

Global quasi-biennial variation in the lower stratosphere and tropopause region is studied using 41 years (1958-1998) of reanalyses from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). Horizontal wind, temperature, geopotential height, tropopause temperature and pressure fields are used. A new quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) indexing method is presented, which is based on the zonal mean zonal wind shear anomaly at the equator and is compared to the Singapore index. A phase difference composting technique provides ``snapshots'' of the QBO meridional-vertical structure as it descends, and ``composite phases'' provide a look at its time progression. Via binning large amounts of data, the first observation-based estimate of the QBO meridional circulation is obtained. High-latitude QBO variability supports previous studies that invoke planetary wave-mean flow interaction as an explanation. The meridional distribution of the range in QBO zonal wind is compared with the stratospheric annual cycle, with the annual cycle dominating poleward of ~12° latitude but still being significant in the deep tropics. The issues of temporal shear zone asymmetries and phase locking with the annual cycle are critically examined. Subtracting the time mean and annual cycle removes ~2/3 of the asymmetry in wind (and wind shear) zone descent rate. The NCEP data validate previous findings that both the easterly and westerly QBO anomalous wind regimes in the lower stratosphere change sign preferentially during northern summer. It is noteworthy that the NCEP QBO amplitude and the relationships among the reanalysed zonal wind, temperature, and meridional circulation undergo a substantial change around 1978.

[Diagnostic concordance between seven definitions of metabolic syndrome in overweight and obese adults].

PubMed

Cabrera-Rode, Eduardo; Stusser, Beatriz; Cálix, Wenny; Orlandi, Neraldo; Rodríguez, Janet; Cubas-Dueñas, Ileana; Echevarría, Ragmila; Álvarez, Aimee

2017-01-01

The aim of this study was to determine the level of diagnostic concordance between seven definitions of metabolic syndrome (MS) in a group of overweight and obese adults. 350 subjects aged from 19 to 70 years were recruited for study from a clinic for overweight and obese subjects. The definitions of MS used were those given by the WHO (World Health Organization), EGIR (European Group for the Study of Insulin Resistance), NCEP- ATPIII (Adult Treatment Panel), AHA/NHLBI (American Heart Association), IDF (International Diabetes Federation), and JIS (Joint Interim Statement) as well as the Szabo criteria. Concordance between the definitions was calculated with the Kappa coefficient. Insulin resistance (IR) was assessed using the HOMA-IR index. According to the Szabo, WHO, EGIR, NCEP-ATPIII, AHA/NHLBI, IDF, and JIS criteria, MS frequency was 74.3%, 42.0%, 46.8%, 56.0%, 52.9%, 58.6%, and 58.6%, respectively. The concordance between the Szabo and AHA/NHLBI criteria was 0.559, while the Kappa coefficient between the Szabo criteria and the rest of the guides (NCEP-ATPIII, IDF, and JIS) was from 0.612 to 0.657, respectively. The concordance of the WHO with the EGIR was 0.602, but it was between 0.358 and 0.422 with the other guidelines. IR was distributed similarly in all guidelines. There is a considerable concordance between the NCEP-ATPIII, IDF, and JIS guidelines and the Szabo criteria. The Szabo criteria could be an option for the active surveillance of MS in populations.

Evaluation of blocking performance in ensemble seasonal integrations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Casado, M. J.; Doblas-Reyes, F. J.; Pastor, M. A.

2003-04-01

EVALUATION OF BLOCKING PERFOMANCE IN ENSEMBLE SEASONAL INTEGRATIONS M. J. Casado (1), F. J. Doblas-Reyes (2), A. Pastor (1) (1) I Instituto Nacional de Meteorología, c/Leonardo Prieto Castro,8,28071 ,Madrid,Spain, mjcasado@inm.es (2) ECMWF, Shinfield Park,RG2 9AX, Reading, UK, f.doblas-reyes@ecmwf.int Climate models have shown a robust inability to reliably predict blocking onset and frequency. This systematic error has been evaluated using multi-model ensemble seasonal integrations carried out in the framework of the Prediction Of climate Variations On Seasonal and interanual Timescales (PROVOST) project and compared to a blocking features assessment of the NCEP re-analyses. The PROVOST GCMs are able to adequately reproduce the spatial NCEP teleconnection patterns over the Northern Hemisphere, being notorious the great spatial correlation coefficient with some of the corresponding NCEP patterns. In spite of that, the different models show a consistent underestimation of blocking frequency which may impact on the ability to predict the seasonal amplitude of the leading modes of variability over the Northern Hemisphere.

Comparison of Water Vapor Measurements from Ground-based and Space-based GPS Atmospheric Remote Sensing Techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Colon-Pagan, Ian; Kuo, Ying-Hwa

2008-10-01

In this study, we compare precipitable water vapor (PWV) values from ground-based GPS water vapor sensing and COSMIC radio occultation (RO) measurements over the Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico, and United States regions as well as global analyses from NCEP and ECMWF models. The results show good overall agreement; however, the PWV values estimated by ground-based GPS receivers tend to have a slight dry bias for low PWV values and a slight wet bias for higher PWV values, when compared with GPS RO measurements and global analyses. An application of a student T-test indicates that there is a significant difference between both ground- and space-based GPS measured datasets. The dry bias associated with space-based GPS is attributed to the missing low altitude data, where the concentration of water vapor is large. The close agreements between space-based and global analyses are due to the fact that these global analyses assimilate space-based GPS RO data from COSMIC, and the retrieval of water vapor profiles from space-based technique requires the use of global analyses as the first guess. This work is supported by UCAR SOARS and a grant from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Educational Partnership Program under the cooperative agreement NA06OAR4810187.

Chromium picolinate does not improve key features of metabolic syndrome in obese nondiabetic adults.

PubMed

Iqbal, Nayyar; Cardillo, Serena; Volger, Sheri; Bloedon, LeAnne T; Anderson, Richard A; Boston, Raymond; Szapary, Philippe O

2009-04-01

The use of chromium-containing dietary supplements is widespread among patients with type 2 diabetes. Chromium's effects in patients at high risk for developing diabetes, especially those with metabolic syndrome, is unknown. The objective of this study was to determine the effects of chromium picolinate (CrPic) on glucose metabolism in patients with metabolic syndrome. A double-blind, placebo-controlled, randomized trial was conducted at a U.S. academic medical center. Sixty three patients with National Cholesterol Education Program (NCEP) Adult Treatment Panel III (ATP III)-defined metabolic syndrome were included. The primary end point was a change in the insulin sensitivity index derived from a frequently sampled intravenous glucose tolerance test. Prespecified secondary end points included changes in other measurements of glucose metabolism, oxidative stress, fasting serum lipids, and high sensitivity C-reactive protein. After 16 weeks of CrPic treatment, there was no significant change in insulin sensitivity index between groups (P = 0.14). However, CrPic increased acute insulin response to glucose (P 0.02). CrPic had no significant effect on other measures of glucose metabolism, body weight, serum lipids, or measures of inflammation and oxidative stress. CrPic at 1000 microg/day does not improve key features of the metabolic syndrome in obese nondiabetic patients.

Metabolic syndrome and C-reactive protein in bank employees.

PubMed

Cattafesta, Monica; Bissoli, Nazaré Souza; Salaroli, Luciane Bresciani

2016-01-01

The ultrasensitive C-reactive protein (us-CRP) is used for the diagnosis of cardiovascular disease, but it is not well described as a marker for the diagnosis of metabolic syndrome (MS). An observational and transversal study of bank employees evaluated anthropometric, hemodynamic, and biochemical data. CRP values were determined using commercial kits from Roche Diagnostics Ltd, and MS criteria were analyzed according to National Cholesterol Education Program's - Adult Treatment Panel III (NCEP/ATP III). A total of 88 individuals had MS, and 77.3% (n=68) of these showed alterations of us-CRP (P=0.0001, confidence interval [CI] 0.11-0.34). Individuals with MS had higher mean values of us-CRP in global measures (P=0.0001) and stratified by sex (P=0.004) than individuals without the syndrome. This marker exhibited significant differences with varying criteria for MS, such as waist circumference (P=0.0001), triglycerides (P=0.002), and diastolic blood pressure (P=0.007), and the highest levels of us-CRP were found in individuals with more MS criteria. us-CRP was strongly associated with the presence of MS and MS criteria in this group of workers. us-CRP is a useful and effective marker for identifying the development of MS and may be used as a reference in routine care.

NCEP Air Quality Forecast(AQF). Web designed by Binbin Zhou,

Science.gov Websites

NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC 2D Fields 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 Select speed: normal 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 Select Cycle: 12Z

OceanNOMADS: Real-time and retrospective access to operational U.S. ocean prediction products

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harding, J. M.; Cross, S. L.; Bub, F.; Ji, M.

2011-12-01

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Operational Model Archive and Distribution System (NOMADS) provides both real-time and archived atmospheric model output from servers at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) respectively (http://nomads.ncep.noaa.gov/txt_descriptions/marRutledge-1.pdf). The NOAA National Ocean Data Center (NODC) with NCEP is developing a complementary capability called OceanNOMADS for operational ocean prediction models. An NCEP ftp server currently provides real-time ocean forecast output (http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/newNCOM/NCOM_currents.shtml) with retrospective access through NODC. A joint effort between the Northern Gulf Institute (NGI; a NOAA Cooperative Institute) and the NOAA National Coastal Data Development Center (NCDDC; a division of NODC) created the developmental version of the retrospective OceanNOMADS capability (http://www.northerngulfinstitute.org/edac/ocean_nomads.php) under the NGI Ecosystem Data Assembly Center (EDAC) project (http://www.northerngulfinstitute.org/edac/). Complementary funding support for the developmental OceanNOMADS from U.S. Integrated Ocean Observing System (IOOS) through the Southeastern University Research Association (SURA) Model Testbed (http://testbed.sura.org/) this past year provided NODC the analogue that facilitated the creation of an NCDDC production version of OceanNOMADS (http://www.ncddc.noaa.gov/ocean-nomads/). Access tool development and storage of initial archival data sets occur on the NGI/NCDDC developmental servers with transition to NODC/NCCDC production servers as the model archives mature and operational space and distribution capability grow. Navy operational global ocean forecast subsets for U.S waters comprise the initial ocean prediction fields resident on the NCDDC production server. The NGI/NCDDC developmental server currently includes the Naval Research Laboratory Inter-America Seas Nowcast/Forecast System over the Gulf of Mexico from 2004-Mar 2011, the operational Naval Oceanographic Office (NAVOCEANO) regional USEast ocean nowcast/forecast system from early 2009 to present, and the NAVOCEANO operational regional AMSEAS (Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean) ocean nowcast/forecast system from its inception 25 June 2010 to present. AMSEAS provided one of the real-time ocean forecast products accessed by NOAA's Office of Response and Restoration from the NGI/NCDDC developmental OceanNOMADS during the Deep Water Horizon oil spill last year. The developmental server also includes archived, real-time Navy coastal forecast products off coastal Japan in support of U.S./Japanese joint efforts following the 2011 tsunami. Real-time NAVOCEANO output from regional prediction systems off Southern California and around Hawaii, currently available on the NCEP ftp server, are scheduled for archival on the developmental OceanNOMADS by late 2011 along with the next generation Navy/NOAA global ocean prediction output. Accession and archival of additional regions is planned as server capacities increase.

Search for an astronomical site on the Arabian Peninsula: meteorological and climatological analyses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sultan, A. H.; Graham, E.

The Arabian Peninsula is the richest in oil but the poorest in A A -Astronomy and Astrophysics- the largest telescope in the region doesn t exceed 45cm To promote A A education and research we propose that all the countries of the region work together to install an optical regional observatory telescope diameter 2 meters on an accessible summit somewhere within the mountains of the Arabian Peninsula The first step is to make a climatological and meteorological study of the highest summits of the region A preliminary study has revealed only one mountain peak above 3000 meters in Saudi Arabia one in Oman but more than thirty in Yemen Of all these summits we have narrowed the selection to six candidate sites on which we are performing detailed meteorological and climatological analyses Our database is composed mainly of Reanalysis datasets from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting ECMWF and the National Center for Environmental Protection National Center for Atmospheric Research NCEP-NCAR Reanalysis datasets are reconstructions of all available past weather station data aeroplane sensor data weather balloon data weather ship data and satellite data from the 1950s onwards using sophisticated numerical weather prediction and data assimilation models This paper discusses ECMWF and NCEP-NCAR images of Arabian Peninsula for the following parameters at a monthly mean temporal resolution begin enumerate item Temperature variability at 700hPa item Precipitation item Geopotential height of the

Statistical evaluation of the performance of gridded monthly precipitation products from reanalysis data, satellite estimates, and merged analyses over China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deng, Xueliang; Nie, Suping; Deng, Weitao; Cao, Weihua

2018-04-01

In this study, we compared the following four different gridded monthly precipitation products: the National Centers for Environmental Prediction version 2 (NCEP-2) reanalysis data, the satellite-based Climate Prediction Center Morphing technique (CMORPH) data, the merged satellite-gauge Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) data, and the merged satellite-gauge-model data from the Beijing Climate Center Merged Estimation of Precipitation (BMEP). We evaluated the performances of these products using monthly precipitation observations spanning the period of January 2003 to December 2013 from a dense, national, rain gauge network in China. Our assessment involved several statistical techniques, including spatial pattern, temporal variation, bias, root-mean-square error (RMSE), and correlation coefficient (CC) analysis. The results show that NCEP-2, GPCP, and BMEP generally overestimate monthly precipitation at the national scale and CMORPH underestimates it. However, all of the datasets successfully characterized the northwest to southeast increase in the monthly precipitation over China. Because they include precipitation gauge information from the Global Telecommunication System (GTS) network, GPCP and BMEP have much smaller biases, lower RMSEs, and higher CCs than NCEP-2 and CMORPH. When the seasonal and regional variations are considered, NCEP-2 has a larger error over southern China during the summer. CMORPH poorly reproduces the magnitude of the precipitation over southeastern China and the temporal correlation over western and northwestern China during all seasons. BMEP has a lower RMSE and higher CC than GPCP over eastern and southern China, where the station network is dense. In contrast, BMEP has a lower CC than GPCP over western and northwestern China, where the gauge network is relatively sparse.

Next Generation Community Based Unified Global Modeling System Development and Operational Implementation Strategies at NCEP

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tallapragada, V.

2017-12-01

NOAA's Next Generation Global Prediction System (NGGPS) has provided the unique opportunity to develop and implement a non-hydrostatic global model based on Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) Finite Volume Cubed Sphere (FV3) Dynamic Core at National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), making a leap-step advancement in seamless prediction capabilities across all spatial and temporal scales. Model development efforts are centralized with unified model development in the NOAA Environmental Modeling System (NEMS) infrastructure based on Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF). A more sophisticated coupling among various earth system components is being enabled within NEMS following National Unified Operational Prediction Capability (NUOPC) standards. The eventual goal of unifying global and regional models will enable operational global models operating at convective resolving scales. Apart from the advanced non-hydrostatic dynamic core and coupling to various earth system components, advanced physics and data assimilation techniques are essential for improved forecast skill. NGGPS is spearheading ambitious physics and data assimilation strategies, concentrating on creation of a Common Community Physics Package (CCPP) and Joint Effort for Data Assimilation Integration (JEDI). Both initiatives are expected to be community developed, with emphasis on research transitioning to operations (R2O). The unified modeling system is being built to support the needs of both operations and research. Different layers of community partners are also established with specific roles/responsibilities for researchers, core development partners, trusted super-users, and operations. Stakeholders are engaged at all stages to help drive the direction of development, resources allocations and prioritization. This talk presents the current and future plans of unified model development at NCEP for weather, sub-seasonal, and seasonal climate prediction applications with special emphasis on implementation of NCEP FV3 Global Forecast System (GFS) and Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) into operations by 2019.

Applying an economical scale-aware PDF-based turbulence closure model in NOAA NCEP GCMs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Belochitski, A.; Krueger, S. K.; Moorthi, S.; Bogenschutz, P.; Pincus, R.

2016-12-01

A novel unified representation of sub-grid scale (SGS) turbulence, cloudiness, and shallow convection is being implemented into the NOAA NCEP Global Forecasting System (GFS) general circulation model. The approach, known as Simplified High Order Closure (SHOC), is based on predicting a joint PDF of SGS thermodynamic variables and vertical velocity and using it to diagnose turbulent diffusion coefficients, SGS fluxes, condensation and cloudiness. Unlike other similar methods, only one new prognostic variable, turbulent kinetic energy (TKE), needs to be intoduced, making the technique computationally efficient.SHOC is now incorporated into a version of GFS, as well as into the next generation of the NCEP global model - NOAA Environmental Modeling System (NEMS). Turbulent diffusion coefficients computed by SHOC are now used in place of those produced by the boundary layer turbulence and shallow convection parameterizations. Large scale microphysics scheme is no longer used to calculate cloud fraction or the large-scale condensation/deposition. Instead, SHOC provides these variables. Radiative transfer parameterization uses cloudiness computed by SHOC.Outstanding problems include high level tropical cloud fraction being too high in SHOC runs, possibly related to the interaction of SHOC with condensate detrained from deep convection.Future work will consist of evaluating model performance and tuning the physics if necessary, by performing medium-range NWP forecasts with prescribed initial conditions, and AMIP-type climate tests with prescribed SSTs. Depending on the results, the model will be tuned or parameterizations modified. Next, SHOC will be implemented in the NCEP CFS, and tuned and evaluated for climate applications - seasonal prediction and long coupled climate runs. Impact of new physics on ENSO, MJO, ISO, monsoon variability, etc will be examined.

Long-term change of the atmospheric energy cycles and weather disturbances

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, WonMoo; Choi, Yong-Sang

2017-11-01

Weather disturbances are the manifestation of mean atmospheric energy cascading into eddies, thus identifying atmospheric energy structure is of fundamental importance to understand the weather variability in a changing climate. The question is whether our observational data can lead to a consistent diagnosis on the energy conversion characteristics. Here we investigate the atmospheric energy cascades by a simple framework of Lorenz energy cycle, and analyze the energy distribution in mean and eddy fields as forms of potential and kinetic energy. It is found that even the widely utilized independent reanalysis datasets, NCEP-DOE AMIP-II Reanalysis (NCEP2) and ERA-Interim (ERA-INT), draw different conclusions on the change of weather variability measured by eddy-related kinetic energy. NCEP2 shows an increased mean-to-eddy energy conversion and enhanced eddy activity due to efficient baroclinic energy cascade, but ERA-INT shows relatively constant energy cascading structure between the 1980s and the 2000s. The source of discrepancy mainly originates from the uncertainties in hydrological variables in the mid-troposphere. Therefore, much efforts should be made to improve mid-tropospheric observations for more reliable diagnosis of the weather disturbances as a consequence of man-made greenhouse effect.

Impact of Lidar Wind Sounding on Mesoscale Forecast

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Miller, Timothy L.; Chou, Shih-Hung; Goodman, H. Michael (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

An Observing System Simulation Experiment (OSSE) was conducted to study the impact of airborne lidar wind sounding on mesoscale weather forecast. A wind retrieval scheme, which interpolates wind data from a grid data system, simulates the retrieval of wind profile from a satellite lidar system. A mesoscale forecast system based on the PSU/NCAR MM5 model is developed and incorporated the assimilation of the retrieved line-of-sight wind. To avoid the "identical twin" problem, the NCEP reanalysis data is used as our reference "nature" atmosphere. The simulated space-based lidar wind observations were retrieved by interpolating the NCEP values to the observation locations. A modified dataset obtained by smoothing the NCEP dataset was used as the initial state whose forecast was sought to be improved by assimilating the retrieved lidar observations. Forecasts using wind profiles with various lidar instrument parameters has been conducted. The results show that to significantly improve the mesoscale forecast the satellite should fly near the storm center with large scanning radius. Increasing lidar firing rate also improves the forecast. Cloud cover and lack of aerosol degrade the quality of the lidar wind data and, subsequently, the forecast.

Hurricane Data Analysis Tool

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liu, Zhong; Ostrenga, Dana; Leptoukh, Gregory

2011-01-01

In order to facilitate Earth science data access, the NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data Information Services Center (GES DISC) has developed a web prototype, the Hurricane Data Analysis Tool (HDAT; URL: http://disc.gsfc.nasa.gov/HDAT), to allow users to conduct online visualization and analysis of several remote sensing and model datasets for educational activities and studies of tropical cyclones and other weather phenomena. With a web browser and few mouse clicks, users can have a full access to terabytes of data and generate 2-D or time-series plots and animation without downloading any software and data. HDAT includes data from the NASA Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), the NASA Quick Scatterometer(QuikSCAT) and NECP Reanalysis, and the NCEP/CPC half-hourly, 4-km Global (60 N - 60 S) IR Dataset. The GES DISC archives TRMM data. The daily global rainfall product derived from the 3-hourly multi-satellite precipitation product (3B42 V6) is available in HDAT. The TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) sea surface temperature from the Remote Sensing Systems is in HDAT as well. The NASA QuikSCAT ocean surface wind and the NCEP Reanalysis provide ocean surface and atmospheric conditions, respectively. The global merged IR product, also known as, the NCEP/CPC half-hourly, 4-km Global (60 N -60 S) IR Dataset, is one of TRMM ancillary datasets. They are globally-merged pixel-resolution IR brightness temperature data (equivalent blackbody temperatures), merged from all available geostationary satellites (GOES-8/10, METEOSAT-7/5 & GMS). The GES DISC has collected over 10 years of the data beginning from February of 2000. This high temporal resolution (every 30 minutes) dataset not only provides additional background information to TRMM and other satellite missions, but also allows observing a wide range of meteorological phenomena from space, such as, hurricanes, typhoons, tropical cyclones, mesoscale convection system, etc. Basic functions include selection of area of interest and time, single imagery, overlay of two different products, animation,a time skip capability and different image size outputs. Users can save an animation as a file (animated gif) and import it in other presentation software, such as, Microsoft PowerPoint. Since the tool can directly access the real data, more features and functionality can be added in the future.

Verification of Meteorological and Oceanographic Ensemble Forecasts in the U.S. Navy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klotz, S.; Hansen, J.; Pauley, P.; Sestak, M.; Wittmann, P.; Skupniewicz, C.; Nelson, G.

2013-12-01

The Navy Ensemble Forecast Verification System (NEFVS) has been promoted recently to operational status at the U.S. Navy's Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center (FNMOC). NEFVS processes FNMOC and National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) meteorological and ocean wave ensemble forecasts, gridded forecast analyses, and innovation (observational) data output by FNMOC's data assimilation system. The NEFVS framework consists of statistical analysis routines, a variety of pre- and post-processing scripts to manage data and plot verification metrics, and a master script to control application workflow. NEFVS computes metrics that include forecast bias, mean-squared error, conditional error, conditional rank probability score, and Brier score. The system also generates reliability and Receiver Operating Characteristic diagrams. In this presentation we describe the operational framework of NEFVS and show examples of verification products computed from ensemble forecasts, meteorological observations, and forecast analyses. The construction and deployment of NEFVS addresses important operational and scientific requirements within Navy Meteorology and Oceanography. These include computational capabilities for assessing the reliability and accuracy of meteorological and ocean wave forecasts in an operational environment, for quantifying effects of changes and potential improvements to the Navy's forecast models, and for comparing the skill of forecasts from different forecast systems. NEFVS also supports the Navy's collaboration with the U.S. Air Force, NCEP, and Environment Canada in the North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS) project and with the Air Force and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in the National Unified Operational Prediction Capability (NUOPC) program. This program is tasked with eliminating unnecessary duplication within the three agencies, accelerating the transition of new technology, such as multi-model ensemble forecasting, to U.S. Department of Defense use, and creating a superior U.S. global meteorological and oceanographic prediction capability. Forecast verification is an important component of NAEFS and NUOPC. Distribution Statement A: Approved for Public Release; distribution is unlimited

Verification of Meteorological and Oceanographic Ensemble Forecasts in the U.S. Navy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klotz, S. P.; Hansen, J.; Pauley, P.; Sestak, M.; Wittmann, P.; Skupniewicz, C.; Nelson, G.

2012-12-01

The Navy Ensemble Forecast Verification System (NEFVS) has been promoted recently to operational status at the U.S. Navy's Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center (FNMOC). NEFVS processes FNMOC and National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) meteorological and ocean wave ensemble forecasts, gridded forecast analyses, and innovation (observational) data output by FNMOC's data assimilation system. The NEFVS framework consists of statistical analysis routines, a variety of pre- and post-processing scripts to manage data and plot verification metrics, and a master script to control application workflow. NEFVS computes metrics that include forecast bias, mean-squared error, conditional error, conditional rank probability score, and Brier score. The system also generates reliability and Receiver Operating Characteristic diagrams. In this presentation we describe the operational framework of NEFVS and show examples of verification products computed from ensemble forecasts, meteorological observations, and forecast analyses. The construction and deployment of NEFVS addresses important operational and scientific requirements within Navy Meteorology and Oceanography (METOC). These include computational capabilities for assessing the reliability and accuracy of meteorological and ocean wave forecasts in an operational environment, for quantifying effects of changes and potential improvements to the Navy's forecast models, and for comparing the skill of forecasts from different forecast systems. NEFVS also supports the Navy's collaboration with the U.S. Air Force, NCEP, and Environment Canada in the North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS) project and with the Air Force and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in the National Unified Operational Prediction Capability (NUOPC) program. This program is tasked with eliminating unnecessary duplication within the three agencies, accelerating the transition of new technology, such as multi-model ensemble forecasting, to U.S. Department of Defense use, and creating a superior U.S. global meteorological and oceanographic prediction capability. Forecast verification is an important component of NAEFS and NUOPC.

[Physical activity and cardiovascular risk factors among Chilean young men and women].

PubMed

Arteaga, Antonio; Bustos, Patricia; Soto, Rodrigo; Velasco, Nicolás; Amigo, Hugo

2010-10-01

Physical activity (PA) has a protective role in cardiovascular diseases. To quantify PA in young adults and to correlate it with cardiovascular risk factors. A cross-sectional study was performed employing the international physical activity questionnaire (IPAQ), to measure the PA of 983 randomly selected young adults from Valparaiso region born between 1974 and 1978. Its results were associated with levels of obesity, insulin resistance and cardiovascular risk factors defined by the National Cholesterol Education Program-Adult Treatment Panel III (NCEP- ATP III) RESULTS: Mean physical activity among men and women was 3731 ± 3923 and 1360 ± 2303 METs-minutes/week, respectively (p < 0.001). Fifty percent of women and 21.5% of men had an insufficient level of physical activity (p < 0.001). Sixty percent of men and 23.4% of women had an intense level of physical activity (p < 0.001). There was an inverse association of physical activity and insulin resistance. A high physical activity was protective, specially among men, against a low HDL cholesterol level and high triglyceride levels with Odds Ratios of 0.59 (confidence interval (CI): 0,35-0.98) and 0.49 (CI: 0,27-0,87) respectively, after adjusting for body mass index and age. In this sample, men had higher levels of physical activity, that was protective against insulin resistance and the presence of cardiovascular risk factors.

Use of CHAID Decision Trees to Formulate Pathways for the Early Detection of Metabolic Syndrome in Young Adults

PubMed Central

Liu, Pei-Yang

2014-01-01

Metabolic syndrome (MetS) in young adults (age 20–39) is often undiagnosed. A simple screening tool using a surrogate measure might be invaluable in the early detection of MetS. Methods. A chi-squared automatic interaction detection (CHAID) decision tree analysis with waist circumference user-specified as the first level was used to detect MetS in young adults using data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 2009-2010 Cohort as a representative sample of the United States population (n = 745). Results. Twenty percent of the sample met the National Cholesterol Education Program Adult Treatment Panel III (NCEP) classification criteria for MetS. The user-specified CHAID model was compared to both CHAID model with no user-specified first level and logistic regression based model. This analysis identified waist circumference as a strong predictor in the MetS diagnosis. The accuracy of the final model with waist circumference user-specified as the first level was 92.3% with its ability to detect MetS at 71.8% which outperformed comparison models. Conclusions. Preliminary findings suggest that young adults at risk for MetS could be identified for further followup based on their waist circumference. Decision tree methods show promise for the development of a preliminary detection algorithm for MetS. PMID:24817904

Effects of Hormone Therapy on Oxidative Stress in Postmenopausal Women with Metabolic Syndrome.

PubMed

Sánchez-Rodríguez, Martha A; Zacarías-Flores, Mariano; Castrejón-Delgado, Lizett; Ruiz-Rodríguez, Ana Karen; Mendoza-Núñez, Víctor Manuel

2016-08-24

The aim of this study was to determine the effect of oral hormone therapy (HT) on oxidative stress (OS) in postmenopausal women with metabolic syndrome (MetS). A randomized, double blind, placebo-controlled trial was carried out. We formed four groups of 25 women each; healthy (HW) and MetS women (MSW) were assigned to HT (1 mg/day of estradiol valerate plus 5 mg/10 day of medroxiprogesterone) or placebo. We measured plasma lipoperoxides, erythrocyte superoxide dismutase and glutathione peroxidase, total plasma antioxidant status and uric acid, as OS markers. Alternative cut-off values of each parameter were defined and a stress score (SS) ranging from 0 to 7 was used as total OS. MetS was defined according to National Cholesterol Education Program Adult Treatment Panel III (NCEP-ATPIII) criteria. Participants were seen at baseline, 3 and 6 months. After 6 months, MetS decreased in MSW-HT (48%), their triglycerides and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-c) improved; in the other groups no difference was found. SS in MSW-HT decreased (3.8 ± 0.3 to 1.7 ± 0.3, p < 0.05) and OS was also reduced (44%), this effect was evident since 3 mo. HW-HT with high OS also decreased (40%). In placebo groups there was no change. Our findings suggest that HT improve lipids and OS associated to MetS in postmenopausal women.

[Metabolic syndrome prevalence in teenagers of Monterrey, Nuevo Leon].

PubMed

Cárdenas-Villareal, Velia Margarita; López Alvarenga, Juan C; Bastarrachea, Raúl A; Rizo-Baeza, María Mercedes; Cortés-Castell, Ernesto

2010-01-01

To determine the prevalence of the metabolic syndrome (SM) and its components in teenagers from the metropolitan area of Monterrey Nuevo Leon, Mexico (AMM). A transversal research involving 254 teenage students from 10 to 19 years old. To research investigated their personal characteristics, anthropometrics measures, glucose, triglycerides and cholesterol HDL. The SM definition was adapted from the one suggested by the National Cholesterol Education Program-Adult Treatment Panel III (NCEP-ATPIII). The SM prevalence was 9.4 % (IC95%: 5.8 to 13.0), there was not a difference between the sexes. The prevalence among each SM component was: 24.4% for high triglycerides, 20.1% for abdominal obesity, 19.0% for cholesterol of lipoproteins of a high density (HDL-c) low, 11.4 % for high glucose and for high blood pressure (9.1% diastolic and 5.9% systolic). The prevalent SM phenotypes were corporal mass (IMC) (OR = 4.93, IC95%: 2.26, 10.73) and the IMC interaction of the teenager with a family history of obesity (OR = 1.37, IC95%: 1.0, 1.87). It was observed that those with a family history of diabetes type 2 only experienced a marginal effect. The SM prevalence in teenagers from AMM is high it was an alarming situation if it continues into adulthood. The existence of obesity in relatives of the first and second grade, altogether with teenager IMC are important prediction factors of SM.

Chromium Picolinate Does Not Improve Key Features of Metabolic Syndrome in Obese Nondiabetic Adults

PubMed Central

Iqbal, Nayyar; Cardillo, Serena; Volger, Sheri; Bloedon, LeAnne T.; Anderson, Richard A.; Boston, Raymond

2009-01-01

Abstract Background The use of chromium-containing dietary supplements is widespread among patients with type 2 diabetes. Chromium's effects in patients at high risk for developing diabetes, especially those with metabolic syndrome, is unknown. The objective of this study was to determine the effects of chromium picolinate (CrPic) on glucose metabolism in patients with metabolic syndrome. Method A double-blind, placebo-controlled, randomized trial was conducted at a U.S. academic medical center. Sixty three patients with National Cholesterol Education Program (NCEP) Adult Treatment Panel III (ATP III)-defined metabolic syndrome were included. The primary end point was a change in the insulin sensitivity index derived from a frequently sampled intravenous glucose tolerance test. Prespecified secondary end points included changes in other measurements of glucose metabolism, oxidative stress, fasting serum lipids, and high sensitivity C-reactive protein. Results After 16 weeks of CrPic treatment, there was no significant change in insulin sensitivity index between groups (P = 0.14). However, CrPic increased acute insulin response to glucose (P = 0.02). CrPic had no significant effect on other measures of glucose metabolism, body weight, serum lipids, or measures of inflammation and oxidative stress. Conclusion CrPic at 1000 μg/day does not improve key features of the metabolic syndrome in obese nondiabetic patients. PMID:19422140

Effects of Hormone Therapy on Oxidative Stress in Postmenopausal Women with Metabolic Syndrome

PubMed Central

Sánchez-Rodríguez, Martha A.; Zacarías-Flores, Mariano; Castrejón-Delgado, Lizett; Ruiz-Rodríguez, Ana Karen; Mendoza-Núñez, Víctor Manuel

2016-01-01

The aim of this study was to determine the effect of oral hormone therapy (HT) on oxidative stress (OS) in postmenopausal women with metabolic syndrome (MetS). A randomized, double blind, placebo-controlled trial was carried out. We formed four groups of 25 women each; healthy (HW) and MetS women (MSW) were assigned to HT (1 mg/day of estradiol valerate plus 5 mg/10 day of medroxiprogesterone) or placebo. We measured plasma lipoperoxides, erythrocyte superoxide dismutase and glutathione peroxidase, total plasma antioxidant status and uric acid, as OS markers. Alternative cut-off values of each parameter were defined and a stress score (SS) ranging from 0 to 7 was used as total OS. MetS was defined according to National Cholesterol Education Program Adult Treatment Panel III (NCEP-ATPIII) criteria. Participants were seen at baseline, 3 and 6 months. After 6 months, MetS decreased in MSW-HT (48%), their triglycerides and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-c) improved; in the other groups no difference was found. SS in MSW-HT decreased (3.8 ± 0.3 to 1.7 ± 0.3, p < 0.05) and OS was also reduced (44%), this effect was evident since 3 mo. HW-HT with high OS also decreased (40%). In placebo groups there was no change. Our findings suggest that HT improve lipids and OS associated to MetS in postmenopausal women. PMID:27563883

Triglyceride/high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (TG/HDL-C) index as a reference criterion of risk for metabolic syndrome (MetS) and low insulin sensitivity in apparently healthy subjects.

PubMed

Baez-Duarte, Blanca Guadalupe; Zamora-Gínez, Irma; González-Duarte, Ramiro; Torres-Rasgado, Enrique; Ruiz-Vivanco, Guadalupe; Pérez-Fuentes, Ricardo; Celis, The Multidisciplinary Research Group Of Diabetes

To evaluate if the TG/HDL-C index can be considered as a reference criterion of MetS and low insulin sensitivity in apparently healthy subjects. The subjects were Mexican mestizos who resided in Puebla City, Mexico, who were anthropometrically, biochemically, and clinically characterized. The TG/HDL-C index was calculated by dividing triglyceride (TG) levels by HDL-C levels. MetS was diagnosed by the Third Report from the Adult Treatment Panel-National Cholesterol Education Program (ATP-III NCEP) criteria, while insulin sensitivity was evaluated by the Quantitative Insulin sensitivity Check Index (QUICKI). The study included 813 subjects, with an average age of 38.6 ± 12.1 years, of which 564 were women and 249 men. An association was found between high TG/HDL-C index and low insulin sensitivity (Odds ratio [OR]: 4.09; p < 0.01) and with MetS (OR: 15.29; p < 0.01). A correlation was found between the TG/HDL-C index and QUICKI (rho: -0.4989; p < 0.01) and with MetS (rho: 0.6581; p < 0.01). The results indicate that the TG/HDL-C index is associated with low insulin sensitivity and MetS in apparently healthy subjects, suggesting this index as a reference criterion of risk for low insulin sensitivity and MetS.

Metabolic syndrome in subjects with bipolar disorder and major depressive disorder in a current depressive episode: Population-based study: Metabolic syndrome in current depressive episode.

PubMed

Moreira, Fernanda Pedrotti; Jansen, Karen; Cardoso, Taiane de Azevedo; Mondin, Thaíse Campos; Magalhães, Pedro Vieira da Silva; Kapczinski, Flávio; Souza, Luciano Dias de Mattos; da Silva, Ricardo Azevedo; Oses, Jean Pierre; Wiener, Carolina David

2017-09-01

To assess the differences in the prevalence of the metabolic syndrome (MetS) and their components in young adults with bipolar disorder (BD) and major depressive disorder (MDD) in a current depressive episode. This was a cross-sectional study with young adults aged 24-30 years old. Depressive episode (bipolar or unipolar) was assessed using the Mini International Neuropsychiatric Interview - Plus version (MINI Plus). The MetS was assessed using the National Cholesterol Education Program Adult Treatment Panel III (NCEP/ATP III). The sample included 972 subjects with a mean age of 25.81 (±2.17) years. Both BD and MDD patients showed higher prevalence of MetS compared to the population sample (BD = 46.9%, MDD = 35.1%, population = 22.1%, p < 0.001). Higher levels of glucose, total cholesterol and LDL cholesterol, Body Mass Index, low levels of HDL cholesterol, and a higher prevalence of abdominal obesity were observed in both BD and MDD individuals with current depressive episode compared to the general population. Moreover, there was a significant difference on BMI values in the case of BD and MDD subjects (p = 0.016). Metabolic components were significantly associated with the presence of depressive symptoms, independently of the diagnosis. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

[Risk factors for metabolic syndrome in a case control study in Temuco, Chile].

PubMed

Philco L, Patricia; Serón S, Pamela; Muñoz N, Sergio; Navia B, Pilar; Lanas Z, Fernando

2012-03-01

Metabolic syndrome is becoming an important public health problem in affluent societies. To identify factors associated to metabolic syndrome in a Southern Chilean city. Using a case control design, 200 participants, aged 35 to 70 years with at least three criteria for metabolic syndrome according to the National Cholesterol Education Program (NCEP_ATPIII) and 200 subjects with less than three criteria, were studied. Both groups were compared in terms of ethnic background, educational level, family history of diabetes and coronary artery disease, menopausal status, smoking, stress and depression, physical activity, changes in body mass index in the last five years and diet. Among subjects aged more than 54 years, among males and among overweight individuals, having a Mapuche origin was a risk factor with odds ratios (OR) of 7.2; 88 and 3.9 respectively. Among subjects aged more than 54 years, among women and among overweight individuals, a family history of diabetes was a risk factor with OR of 17.7; 3.2 and 3.9 respectively. Among subjects aged more than 54 years and among women a change in body mass index of more than three points was a risk factor with OR of 12.5 and 7.4, respectively. Depression also was a risk factor among subjects aged more than 54 years (OR 3.3). Regular consumption of wine was a protective factor among participants of more than 54 years, with an OR of 0.17. The risk factors for metabolic syndrome detected in this group of participants, were having a Mapuche origin, a family history of diabetes mellitus and depression. Wine consumption was associated with a lower risk.

High rates of the metabolic syndrome in a First Nations Community in western Canada: prevalence and determinants in adults and children.

PubMed

Kaler, Sharndeep Norry; Ralph-Campbell, Kelli; Pohar, Sheri; King, Malcolm; Laboucan, Chief Rose; Toth, Ellen L

2006-12-01

Increasing type 2 diabetes in Aboriginal communities across North America raises concerns about metabolic syndrome in these populations. Some prevalence information for American Indians exists, but little has been available for Canada's First Nations. We screened 60% of the eligible population of a single First Nation in Alberta for diabetes, pre-diabetes, cardiovascular risk, and metabolic syndrome. NCEP/ATP III and IDF criteria were used to identify metabolic syndrome in participants aged > or = 18; modified NCEP/ATP III criteria were used for participants aged < 18. Logistic regression identified factors associated with the metabolic syndrome. 297 individuals were screened (176 adults, 84 children/adolescents, with complete data). 52.3% of adults had metabolic syndrome using NCEP/ATP III criteria, and 50% using IDF criteria. 40.5% of individuals aged < 18 had the condition. Waist circumference was the most prevalent correlate. Bivariate analysis suggested that age, BMI, weight, Alc, LDL-C, ADA risk score and activity pattern were associated with metabolic syndrome. Our data represent the first available for Western Cree and are consistent with prevalence reported for Aboriginal populations in Ontario and Manitoba. High rates of obesity, pre-diabetes and metabolic syndrome for participants aged < 18 raise concerns about future prevalence of diabetes and cardiovascular disease.

'Electrically-Hot' Convection and Tropical Cyclone Development in the Eastern Atlantic

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Leppert, Kenneth, II; Petersen, Walter A.; Williams, Earle

2008-01-01

The depth and intensity of convective-scale "hot" towers in intensifying tropical disturbances has been hypothesized to play a role in tropical cyclogenesis via dynamic and thermodynamic feedbacks on the larger meso-to-synoptic scale circulation. In this investigation we investigate the role that widespread and/or intense lightning-producing convection (i.e., "electrically-hot towers") resident in African Easterly Waves (AEW) may play in tropical cyclogenesis over the eastern Atlantic Ocean. NCEP reanalysis data for the months of July to November for the years 2004, 2006, and 2007 are analyzed for the domain of 5 N - 15 N and 500W - 300 E. Specifically, NCEP data for individual AEWs are partitioned into northerly, southerly, trough, and ridge phases using the 700 hPa meridional winds. Subsequently, information from National Hurricane Center storm reports were divided up into developing and non-developing waves (i.e. tropical cyclogenesis). Finally, composites were created of developing and non-developing waves using the NCEP variables, but with the inclusion of lightning flash count and infrared brightness temperature information. The Zeus and World Wide Lightning Location Network lightning data were used for the lightning information, and the IR brightness temperature data was extracted from the NASA global-merged infrared brightness temperature dataset.

Downscaling with a nested regional climate model in near-surface fields over the contiguous United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Jiali; Kotamarthi, Veerabhadra R.

2014-07-01

The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used for dynamic downscaling of 2.5-degree National Centers for Environmental Prediction-U.S. Department of Energy Reanalysis II (NCEP-R2) data for 1980-2010 at 12 km resolution over most of North America. The model's performance for surface air temperature and precipitation is evaluated by comparison with high-resolution observational data sets. The model's ability to add value is investigated by comparison with NCEP-R2 data and a 50 km regional climate simulation. The causes for major model bias are studied through additional sensitivity experiments with various model setup/integration approaches and physics representations. The WRF captures the main features of the spatial patterns and annual cycles of air temperature and precipitation over most of the contiguous United States. However, simulated air temperatures over the south central region and precipitation over the Great Plains and the Southwest have significant biases. Allowing longer spin-up time, reducing the nudging strength, or replacing the WRF Single-Moment six-class microphysics with Morrison microphysics reduces the bias over some subregions. However, replacing the Grell-Devenyi cumulus parameterization with Kain-Fritsch shows no improvement. The 12 km simulation does add value above the NCEP-R2 data and the 50 km simulation over mountainous and coastal zones.

Sensitivity of Simulated Global Ocean Carbon Flux Estimates to Forcing by Reanalysis Products

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gregg, Watson W.; Casey, Nancy W.; Rousseaux, Cecile S.

2015-01-01

Reanalysis products from MERRA, NCEP2, NCEP1, and ECMWF were used to force an established ocean biogeochemical model to estimate air-sea carbon fluxes (FCO2) and partial pressure of carbon dioxide (pCO2) in the global oceans. Global air-sea carbon fluxes and pCO2 were relatively insensitive to the choice of forcing reanalysis. All global FCO2 estimates from the model forced by the four different reanalyses were within 20% of in situ estimates (MERRA and NCEP1 were within 7%), and all models exhibited statistically significant positive correlations with in situ estimates across the 12 major oceanographic basins. Global pCO2 estimates were within 1% of in situ estimates with ECMWF being the outlier at 0.6%. Basin correlations were similar to FCO2. There were, however, substantial departures among basin estimates from the different reanalysis forcings. The high latitudes and tropics had the largest ranges in estimated fluxes among the reanalyses. Regional pCO2 differences among the reanalysis forcings were muted relative to the FCO2 results. No individual reanalysis was uniformly better or worse in the major oceanographic basins. The results provide information on the characterization of uncertainty in ocean carbon models due to choice of reanalysis forcing.

Anomalous Heat Budgets in the Interior Pacific Ocean on Seasonal- to -Timescales and Gyre Spacescales

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

White, Warren; Cayan, Daniel R.; Lindstrom, Eric (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

This study quantifies uncertainties in closing the seasonal cycle of diabatic heat storage over the Pacific Ocean from 20 degrees S to 60 degrees N through the synthesis of World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE) products over 7 years from 1993-1999. We utilize WOCE reanalysis products from the following sources: diabatic heat storage (DHS) from the Scripps Institution of Oceanography (SIO); near-surface geostrophic and Ekman currents from the Earth and Space Research (ESR); and air-sea heat fluxes from Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set (COADS), National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), and European Center for Mid-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). We interpolate these products onto a common grid, allowing the seasonal cycle of DHS to be modeled for comparison with that observed. Everywhere latent heat flux residuals dominate sensible heat flux residuals and shortwave heat flux residuals dominate longwave heat flux residuals, both comparable in magnitude to the residual horizontal heat advection. We find the root-mean-square (RMS) of the differences between observed and model residual DHS tendencies to be less than 15 W per square meters everywhere except in the Kuroshio extension. Comparable COADS and NCEP products perform better than ECMWF products in the extra-tropics, while the NCEP product performs best in the tropics. Radiative and turbulent air-sea heat flux residuals computed from ship-born measurements perform better than those computed from satellite cloud and wind measurements. Since the RMS differences derive largely from biases in measured wind speed and cloud fraction, least-squares minimization is used to correct the residual Ekman heat advection and air-sea heat flux. Minimization reduces RMS differences less than 5 W per square meters except in the Kuroshio extension, suggesting how winds, clouds, and exchange coefficients in the NCEP, ECMWF, and ESR products can be improved.

Evaluation of Atmospheric Precipitable Water from Reanalysis Products Using Homogenized Radiosonde Observations over China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, T.; Wang, J.; Dai, A.

2015-12-01

Many multi-decadal atmospheric reanalysis products are avialable now, but their consistencies and reliability are far from perfect. In this study, atmospheric precipitable water (PW) from the NCEP/NCAR, NCEP/DOE, MERRA, JRA-55, JRA-25, ERA-Interim, ERA-40, CFSR and 20CR reanalyses is evaluated against homogenized radiosonde observations over China during 1979-2012 (1979-2001 for ERA-40). Results suggest that the PW biases in the reanalyses are within ˜20% for most of northern and eastern China, but the reanalyses underestimate the observed PW by 20%-40% over western China, and by ˜60% over the southwestern Tibetan Plateau. The newer-generation reanalyses (e.g., JRA25, JRA55, CFSR and ERA-Interim) have smaller root-mean-square error (RMSE) than the older-generation ones (NCEP/NCAR, NCEP/DOE and ERA-40). Most of the reanalyses reproduce well the observed PW climatology and interannual variations over China. However, few reanalyses capture the observed long-term PW changes, primarily because they show spurious wet biases before about 2002. This deficiency results mainly from the discontinuities contained in reanalysis RH fields in the mid-lower troposphere due to the wet bias in older radiosonde records that are assimilated into the reanalyses. An empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis revealed two leading modes that represent the long-term PW changes and ENSO-related interannual variations with robust spatial patterns. The reanalysis products, especially the MERRA and JRA-25, roughly capture these EOF modes, which account for over 50% of the total variance. The results show that even during the post-1979 satellite era, discontinuities in radiosonde data can still induce large spurious long-term changes in reanalysis PW and other related fields. Thus, more efforts are needed to remove spurious changes in input data for future long-term reanlayses.

Modeling the Pineapple Express phenomenon via Multivariate Extreme Value Theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weller, G.; Cooley, D. S.

2011-12-01

The pineapple express (PE) phenomenon is responsible for producing extreme winter precipitation events in the coastal and mountainous regions of the western United States. Because the PE phenomenon is also associated with warm temperatures, the heavy precipitation and associated snowmelt can cause destructive flooding. In order to study impacts, it is important that regional climate models from NARCCAP are able to reproduce extreme precipitation events produced by PE. We define a daily precipitation quantity which captures the spatial extent and intensity of precipitation events produced by the PE phenomenon. We then use statistical extreme value theory to model the tail dependence of this quantity as seen in an observational data set and each of the six NARCCAP regional models driven by NCEP reanalysis. We find that most NCEP-driven NARCCAP models do exhibit tail dependence between daily model output and observations. Furthermore, we find that not all extreme precipitation events are pineapple express events, as identified by Dettinger et al. (2011). The synoptic-scale atmospheric processes that drive extreme precipitation events produced by PE have only recently begun to be examined. Much of the current work has focused on pattern recognition, rather than quantitative analysis. We use daily mean sea-level pressure (MSLP) fields from NCEP to develop a "pineapple express index" for extreme precipitation, which exhibits tail dependence with our observed precipitation quantity for pineapple express events. We build a statistical model that connects daily precipitation output from the WRFG model, daily MSLP fields from NCEP, and daily observed precipitation in the western US. Finally, we use this model to simulate future observed precipitation based on WRFG output driven by the CCSM model, and our pineapple express index derived from future CCSM output. Our aim is to use this model to develop a better understanding of the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events produced by PE under climate change.

Intra-annual variability of cloud cover over the Mediterranean region based on NCEP/NCAR, MODIS and ECAD data sets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ioannidis, Eleftherios; Lolis, Christos J.; Papadimas, Christos D.; Hatzianastassiou, Nikolaos; Bartzokas, Aristides

2017-04-01

The seasonal variability of total cloud cover in the Mediterranean region is examined for the period 1948-2014 using a multivariate statistical methodology. The data used consist of: i) daily gridded (1.875°x1.905°) values of total cloud cover over the broader Mediterranean region for the 66-year period 1948-2014, obtained from NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis data set, ii) daily gridded (1°x1°) values of total cloud cover for the period 2003-2014 obtained from the Moderate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite data set and iii) daily station cloud cover data for the period 2003-2014 obtained from the European Climate Assessment & Dataset (ECA&D). At first, the multivariate statistical method of Factor Analysis (S-mode) with varimax rotation is applied as a dimensionality reduction tool on the mean day to day intra-annual variation of NCEP/NCAR cloud cover for the period 1948-2014. According to the results, three main modes of intra-annual variation of cloud cover are found. The first mode is characterized by a winter maximum and a summer minimum and prevails mainly over the sea; a weak see-saw teleconnection over the Alps represents the opposite intra-annual marching. The second mode presents maxima in early autumn and late spring, and minima in late summer and winter, and prevails over the SW Europe and NW Africa inland regions. The third mode shows a maximum in June and a minimum in October and prevails over the eastern part of central Europe. Next, the mean day to day intra-annual variation of NCEP/NCAR cloud cover over the core regions of the above factors is calculated for the entire period 1948-2014 and the three 22-year sub-periods 1948-70, 1970-92 and 1992-2014. A comparison is carried out between each of the three sub-periods and the total period in order to reveal possible long-term changes in seasonal march of total cloud cover. The results show that cloud cover was reduced above all regions during the last 22-year sub-period 1992-2014 throughout the year, but especially in winter. Finally, given the different nature of the utilized NCEP/NCAR (Reanalysis), MODIS (satellite) and ECAD (stations) cloud cover data sets, an inter-comparison is made among them as it concerns the intra-annual variation of cloud cover for the common period 2003-2014. The results show a nice similarity among the three datasets, with some differences in magnitude during the cold period of the year.

The Representation of Extra-tropical Cyclones in Recent Re-Analyses: ERA-Interim, NASA-MERRA, NCEP-CFS and JRA25

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hodges, K.

2010-12-01

Re-analyses are produced using a forecast model, data assimilation system and historical observations. Whilst the observations are common between the re-analyses the way they are assimilated and the forecast model used are often different between the re-analyses which can introduce uncertainty in the representation of particular phenomena between the re-analyses, for example the distribution and properties of weather systems. It is important to inter-compare re-analyses to determine the uncertainty in their representation of the atmosphere, its circulation and weather systems in order to have confidence in their use for studies of the atmosphere and validating climate models. The four recent re-analyses, ERA-Interim, NASA-MERRA, NCEP-CFS and JRA25 are explored and compared for the representation of synoptic scale extra-tropical cyclones. Previous studies of the older re-analyses. ERA40, NCEP-NCAR and DOE has shown that whilst in the NH there was relatively good agreement between the re-analyses in terms of the distribution and properties of extra-tropical cyclones, in the SH there was much larger uncertainty. The newest re-analyses are produced at much higher resolutions than previous re-analyses, in addition more modern data assimilation systems and forecast models have been used. Hence, it would be hoped that the representation of cyclones will be improved to the same extent as that seen in modern NWP systems. This study contrasts extra-tropical cyclones, their distribution and properties, between these new re-analyses and compares them with cyclones in the slightly older though lower resolution JRA25 re-analysis. Results will show that in general in the higher resolution re-analysis more cyclones are identified than in JRA25. In the NH the distribution of storms agrees as well if not better than was the case for the older re-analyses. However, it is in the SH that the largest improvement in agreement is seen for the distribution of storms. For ERA-Interim, NASA-MERRA and NCEP-CFS the agreement in the SH is almost as good as in the NH with the best agreement occurring between ERA-Interim and NCEP-CFS. However, the comparison with JRA25 shows the same level of uncertainty as seen with the older re-analyses. Determining the separation distances of storms using storm matching confirm these results. The biggest differences between the re-analyses occurs for the intensity of storms with the NASA-MERRA having consistently the strongest extreme storms in terms of pressure and winds and JRA25 the weakest, ERA-Interim and NCEP-CFS are very similar in this respect. Using vorticity as an intensity measure shows the greatest sensitivity and goes with resolution. If time permits a comparison of the structure of the storms will also be presented. The approach used only highlights the uncertainty between the re-analyses it does not say which one is right. To try to address this some early results of comparing the re-analyses directly with observations of low level winds from scatterometers in the vicinity of storms will be presented if time permits.

A stochastic multicloud convective parameterization in the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFSv2) : implementation and calibration.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goswami, B. B.; Khouider, B.; Krishna, R. P. M.; Mukhopadhyay, P.; Majda, A.

2017-12-01

A stochastic multicloud (SMCM) cumulus parameterization is implemented in the National Centres for Environmental Predictions (NCEP) Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) model, named as the CFSsmcm model. We present here results from a systematic attempt to understand the CFSsmcm model's sensitivity to the SMCM parameters. To asses the model-sentivity to the different SMCM parameters, we have analized a set of 14 5-year long climate simulations produced by the CFSsmcm model. The model is found to be resilient to minor changes in the parameter values. The middle tropospheric dryness (MTD) and the stratiform cloud decay timescale are found to be most crucial parameters in the SMCM formulation in the CFSsmcm model.

Comparisons of regional Hydrological Angular Momentum (HAM) of the different models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nastula, J.; Kolaczek, B.; Popinski, W.

2006-10-01

In the paper hydrological excitations of the polar motion (HAM) were computed from various hydrological data series (NCEP, ECMWF, CPC water storage and LaD World Simulations of global continental water). HAM series obtained from these four models and the geodetic excitation function GEOD computed from the polar motion COMB03 data were compared in the seasonal spectral band. The results show big differences of these hydrological excitation functions as well as of their spectra in the seasonal spectra band. Seasonal oscillations of the global geophysical excitation functions (AAM + OAM + HAM) in all cases besides the NCEP/NCAR model are smaller than the geodetic excitation function. It means that these models need further improvement and perhaps not only hydrological models need improvements.

Prevalence of the metabolic syndrome, insulin resistance index, leptin and thyroid hormone levels in the general population of Merida (Venezuela).

PubMed

Uzcátegui, Euderruh; Valery, Lenin; Uzcátegui, Lilia; Gómez Pérez, Roald; Marquina, David; Baptista, Trino

2015-06-01

The metabolic syndrome (MetSyn) is a significant risk factor for cardiovascular events, but scarce information exists about its frequency in Venezuela. In this cross-sectional study, we quantified the prevalence of the MetSyn in a probabilistic, stratified sample of 274 subjects aged > or =18 years from the Libertador district in Merida, Venezuela. Secondary outcomes were the measurement of thyroid hormones (free T4 and TSH), leptin levels, and insulin resistance index (HOMA2-IR). The frequency of MetSyn (percentage +/- 95% confidence interval) according to several diagnostic criteria was as follows: National Cholesterol Education Panel (NCEP, original): 27.4% (22.1-32.7); modified NCEP: 31.8% (26.3-37.3); International Diabetes Federation: 40.9% (35.1-46.7); Latin American Diabetes Association: 27% (21.7-32.3), and Venezuelan criteria: 31.8% (26.3-37.3). The MetSyn was more frequent in males than in females with most diagnostic criteria. The estimated prevalence of type 2 diabetes mellitus was 2.9% either according to the patients' self reports or to fasting glucose level found to be above 126 mg/dL. Abnormal HOMA2-IR index, free T4 and TSH (above the 95th percentile) were detected in 4.5%, 4.4% and 5.1% of the sample, respectively. Free T4 and TSH levels below the 5th percentile were detected in 4.4% and 4.7% of subjects respectively. These values are presented for comparisons with forthcoming studies in specific clinical populations. While studies are being conducted about the different definitions of the MetSyn in Venezuela, we recommend analyzing and publishing local research data with all the available criteria so as to allow comparisons with the results already reported in the literature.

Evaluations of Extended-Range tropical Cyclone Forecasts in the Western North Pacific by using the Ensemble Reforecasts: Preliminary Results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsai, Hsiao-Chung; Chen, Pang-Cheng; Elsberry, Russell L.

2017-04-01

The objective of this study is to evaluate the predictability of the extended-range forecasts of tropical cyclone (TC) in the western North Pacific using reforecasts from National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) during 1996-2015, and from the Climate Forecast System (CFS) during 1999-2010. Tsai and Elsberry have demonstrated that an opportunity exists to support hydrological operations by using the extended-range TC formation and track forecasts in the western North Pacific from the ECMWF 32-day ensemble. To demonstrate this potential for the decision-making processes regarding water resource management and hydrological operation in Taiwan reservoir watershed areas, special attention is given to the skill of the NCEP GEFS and CFS models in predicting the TCs affecting the Taiwan area. The first objective of this study is to analyze the skill of NCEP GEFS and CFS TC forecasts and quantify the forecast uncertainties via verifications of categorical binary forecasts and probabilistic forecasts. The second objective is to investigate the relationships among the large-scale environmental factors [e.g., El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), etc.] and the model forecast errors by using the reforecasts. Preliminary results are indicating that the skill of the TC activity forecasts based on the raw forecasts can be further improved if the model biases are minimized by utilizing these reforecasts.

Improving Subtropical Boundary Layer Cloudiness in the 2011 NCEP GFS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fletcher, J. K.; Bretherton, Christopher S.; Xiao, Heng

2014-09-23

The current operational version of National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecasting System (GFS) shows significant low cloud bias. These biases also appear in the Coupled Forecast System (CFS), which is developed from the GFS. These low cloud biases degrade seasonal and longer climate forecasts, particularly of short-wave cloud radiative forcing, and affect predicted sea surface temperature. Reducing this bias in the GFS will aid the development of future CFS versions and contributes to NCEP's goal of unified weather and climate modelling. Changes are made to the shallow convection and planetary boundary layer parameterisations to make them more consistentmore » with current knowledge of these processes and to reduce the low cloud bias. These changes are tested in a single-column version of GFS and in global simulations with GFS coupled to a dynamical ocean model. In the single-column model, we focus on changing parameters that set the following: the strength of shallow cumulus lateral entrainment, the conversion of updraught liquid water to precipitation and grid-scale condensate, shallow cumulus cloud top, and the effect of shallow convection in stratocumulus environments. Results show that these changes improve the single-column simulations when compared to large eddy simulations, in particular through decreasing the precipitation efficiency of boundary layer clouds. These changes, combined with a few other model improvements, also reduce boundary layer cloud and albedo biases in global coupled simulations.« less

Downscaling with a nested regional climate model in near-surface fields over the contiguous United States: WRF dynamical downscaling

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Jiali; Kotamarthi, Veerabhadra R.

The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used for dynamic downscaling of 2.5 degree National Centers for Environmental Prediction-U.S. Department of Energy Reanalysis II (NCEP-R2) data for 1980-2010 at 12 km resolution over most of North America. The model's performance for surface air temperature and precipitation is evaluated by comparison with high-resolution observational data sets. The model's ability to add value is investigated by comparison with NCEP-R2 data and a 50 km regional climate simulation. The causes for major model bias are studied through additional sensitivity experiments with various model setup/integration approaches and physics representations. The WRF captures themore » main features of the spatial patterns and annual cycles of air temperature and precipitation over most of the contiguous United States. However, simulated air temperatures over the south central region and precipitation over the Great Plains and the Southwest have significant biases. Allowing longer spin-up time, reducing the nudging strength, or replacing the WRF Single-Moment 6-class microphysics with Morrison microphysics reduces the bias over some subregions. However, replacing the Grell-Devenyi cumulus parameterization with Kain-Fritsch shows no improvement. The 12 km simulation does add value above the NCEP-R2 data and the 50 km simulation over mountainous and coastal zones.« less

Evaluation of the Reanalysis Surface Incident Shortwave Radiation Products from NCEP, ECMWF, GSFC, and JMA using Satellite and Surface Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, X.; Liang, S.; Wang, G.; Yao, Y.; Jiang, B.; Cheng, J.

2016-12-01

Solar radiation incident at the Earth's surface (Rs) is an essential component of the total energy exchange between the atmosphere and the surface. Reanalysis data have been widely used, but a comprehensive validation using surface measurements is still highly needed. In this study, we evaluated the Rs estimates from six current representative global reanalyses [NCEP-NCAR, NCEP-DOE; CFSR; ERA-Interim; MERRA; and JRA-55] using surface measurements from different observation networks [GEBA; BSRN; GC-NET; Buoy; and CMA] (674 sites in total) and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) EBAF product from 2001 to 2009. The global mean biases between the reanalysis Rs and surface measurements at all sites ranged from 11.25 W/m2 to 49.80 W/m2. Comparing with the CERES-EBAF Rs product, all the reanalyses overestimate Rs, except for ERA-Interim, with the biases ranging from -2.98 W/m2 to 21.97 W/m2 over the globe. It was also found that the biases of cloud fraction (CF) in the reanalyses caused the overestimation of Rs. After removing the averaged bias of CERES-EBAF, weighted by the area of the latitudinal band, a global annual mean Rs values of 184.6 W/m2, 180.0 W/m2, and 182.9 W/m2 was obtained over land, ocean, and the globe, respectively.

Supporting Operational Data Assimilation Capabilities to the Research Community

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shao, H.; Hu, M.; Stark, D. R.; Zhou, C.; Beck, J.; Ge, G.

2017-12-01

The Developmental Testbed Center (DTC), in partnership with the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and other operational and research institutions, provides operational data assimilation capabilities to the research community and helps transition research advances to operations. The primary data assimilation system supported currently by the DTC is the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) system and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) system. GSI is a variational based system being used for daily operations at NOAA, NCEP, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, and other operational agencies. Recently, GSI has evolved into a four-dimensional EnVar system. Since 2009, the DTC has been releasing the GSI code to the research community annually and providing user support. In addition to GSI, the DTC, in 2015, began supporting the ensemble based EnKF data assimilation system. EnKF shares the observation operator with GSI and therefore, just as GSI, can assimilate both conventional and non-conventional data (e.g., satellite radiance). Currently, EnKF is being implemented as part of the GSI based hybrid EnVar system for NCEP Global Forecast System operations. This paper will summarize the current code management and support framework for these two systems. Following that is a description of available community services and facilities. Also presented is the pathway for researchers to contribute their development to the daily operations of these data assimilation systems.

Evaluation of snow modeling with Noah and Noah-MP land surface models in NCEP GFS/CFS system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dong, J.; Ek, M. B.; Wei, H.; Meng, J.

2017-12-01

Land surface serves as lower boundary forcing in global forecast system (GFS) and climate forecast system (CFS), simulating interactions between land and the atmosphere. Understanding the underlying land model physics is a key to improving weather and seasonal prediction skills. With the upgrades in land model physics (e.g., release of newer versions of a land model), different land initializations, changes in parameterization schemes used in the land model (e.g., land physical parametrization options), and how the land impact is handled (e.g., physics ensemble approach), it always prompts the necessity that climate prediction experiments need to be re-conducted to examine its impact. The current NASA LIS (version 7) integrates NOAA operational land surface and hydrological models (NCEP's Noah, versions from 2.7.1 to 3.6 and the future Noah-MP), high-resolution satellite and observational data, and land DA tools. The newer versions of the Noah LSM used in operational models have a variety of enhancements compared to older versions, where the Noah-MP allows for different physics parameterization options and the choice could have large impact on physical processes underlying seasonal predictions. These impacts need to be reexamined before implemented into NCEP operational systems. A set of offline numerical experiments driven by the GFS forecast forcing have been conducted to evaluate the impact of snow modeling with daily Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN).

Comparison of the efficacy and safety of rosuvastatin 10 mg and atorvastatin 20 mg in high-risk patients with hypercholesterolemia – Prospective study to evaluate the Use of Low doses of the Statins Atorvastatin and Rosuvastatin (PULSAR)

PubMed Central

Clearfield, Michael B; Amerena, John; Bassand, Jean-Pierre; García, Hugo R Hernández; Miller, Sam S; Sosef, Froukje FM; Palmer, Michael K; Bryzinski, Brian S

2006-01-01

Background Many patients at high risk of cardiovascular disease do not achieve recommended low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) goals. This study compared the efficacy and safety of low doses of rosuvastatin (10 mg) and atorvastatin (20 mg) in high-risk patients with hypercholesterolemia. Methods A total of 996 patients with hypercholesterolemia (LDL-C ≥ 3.4 and < 5.7 mmol/L [130 and 220 mg/dL]) and coronary heart disease (CHD), atherosclerosis, or a CHD-risk equivalent were randomized to once-daily rosuvastatin 10 mg or atorvastatin 20 mg. The primary endpoint was the percentage change from baseline in LDL-C levels at 6 weeks. Secondary endpoints included LDL-C goal achievement (National Cholesterol Education Program Adult Treatment Panel III [NCEP ATP III] goal < 100 mg/dL; 2003 European goal < 2.5 mmol/L for patients with atherosclerotic disease, type 2 diabetes, or at high risk of cardiovascular events, as assessed by a Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) risk ≥ 5% or 3.0 mmol/L for all other patients), changes in other lipids and lipoproteins, cost-effectiveness, and safety. Results Rosuvastatin 10 mg reduced LDL-C levels significantly more than atorvastatin 20 mg at week 6 (44.6% vs. 42.7%, p < 0.05). Significantly more patients achieved NCEP ATP III and 2003 European LDL-C goals with rosuvastatin 10 mg compared with atorvastatin 20 mg (68.8% vs. 62.5%, p < 0.05; 68.0% vs. 63.3%, p < 0.05, respectively). High-density lipoprotein cholesterol was increased significantly with rosuvastatin 10 mg versus atorvastatin 20 mg (6.4% vs. 3.1%, p < 0.001). Lipid ratios and levels of apolipoprotein A-I also improved more with rosuvastatin 10 mg than with atorvastatin 20 mg. The use of rosuvastatin 10 mg was also cost-effective compared with atorvastatin 20 mg in both a US and a UK setting. Both treatments were well tolerated, with a similar incidence of adverse events (rosuvastatin 10 mg, 27.5%; atorvastatin 20 mg, 26.1%). No cases of rhabdomyolysis, liver, or renal insufficiency were recorded. Conclusion In high-risk patients with hypercholesterolemia, rosuvastatin 10 mg was more efficacious than atorvastatin 20 mg at reducing LDL-C, enabling LDL-C goal achievement and improving other lipid parameters. Both treatments were well tolerated. PMID:17184550

Increasing vertical resolution in US models to improve track forecasts of Hurricane Joaquin with HWRF as an example

PubMed Central

Zhang, Banglin; Tallapragada, Vijay; Weng, Fuzhong; Liu, Qingfu; Sippel, Jason A.; Ma, Zaizhong; Bender, Morris A.

2016-01-01

The atmosphere−ocean coupled Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast model (HWRF) developed at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) is used as an example to illustrate the impact of model vertical resolution on track forecasts of tropical cyclones. A number of HWRF forecasting experiments were carried out at different vertical resolutions for Hurricane Joaquin, which occurred from September 27 to October 8, 2015, in the Atlantic Basin. The results show that the track prediction for Hurricane Joaquin is much more accurate with higher vertical resolution. The positive impacts of higher vertical resolution on hurricane track forecasts suggest that National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/NCEP should upgrade both HWRF and the Global Forecast System to have more vertical levels. PMID:27698121

Real Time Data in Synoptic Meteolorolgy and Weather Forecasting Education

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Campetella, C. M.; Gassmann, M. I.

2006-05-01

The Department of Atmospheric and Oceanographic Sciences (DAOS) of the University of Buenos Aires is the university component of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Regional Meteorological Training Center (RMTC) in Region III. In January, 2002 our RMTC was invited to take part in the MeteoForum pilot project that was developed jointly by the COMET and Unidata programs of the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR). MeteoForum comprises an international network of WMO Region III and IV RMTCs working collaboratively with universities to enhance their roles of training and education through information technologies and multilingual collections of resources. The DAOS undertook to improve its infrastructure to be able to access hydro-meteorological information in real-time as part of the Unidata community. In 2003, the DAOS received some Unidata equipment grant funds to update its computer infrastructure, improving communications with an operationally quicker system. Departmental networking was upgraded to 100 Mb/s capability while, at the same time, new computation resources were purchased that increased the number of computers available for student use from 5 to 8. This upgrade has also resulted in more and better computers being available for student and faculty research. A video projection system, purchased with funds provided by the COMET program as part of Meteoforum, is used in classrooms with Internet connections for a variety of educational activities. The upgraded computing and networking facilities have contributed to the development of educational modules using real-time hydro-meteorological and other digital data for the classroom. With the aid of Unidata personal, the Unidata Local Data Management (LDM) software was installed and configured to request and process real-time feeds of global observational data; global numerical model output from the US National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) models; and all imager channels from GOES-12 from the Unidata Internet Data Distribution (IDD) system. The data now being routinely received have impacted not only the meteorological education in the DAOS, but also have been instructive in techniques for Internet-based data sharing for our students. The DAOS has made a substantial effort to provide undergraduate students with experience in manipulating, displaying, and analyzing weather data in real-time through interactive displays of data using visualization tools provided by Unidata. Two of the specific courses whose curriculum have been improved are synoptic meteorology and a laboratory on weather prediction. Some laboratory materials have been developed to reflect current data as applied to the lecture material. This talk will briefly describe the data compiled and the fields used to analyze an intense cyclogenesis event that occurred over the La Plata River in August, 2005. This event was used as a case study for discussions in the Synoptic Weather Laboratory degree course of Atmospheric Sciences Licentiate.

MMAB Tools

Science.gov Websites

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Effects of the Mediterranean Diet before and after Weight Loss on Eating Behavioral Traits in Men with Metabolic Syndrome.

PubMed

Carbonneau, Élise; Royer, Marie-Michelle; Richard, Caroline; Couture, Patrick; Desroches, Sophie; Lemieux, Simone; Lamarche, Benoît

2017-03-19

The objective of this study was to investigate the impact of the Mediterranean diet (MedDiet) consumed before and after weight loss on eating behavioral traits as measured by the Three-Factor Eating Questionnaire (TFEQ) in men with metabolic syndrome (MetS). In this fixed sequence study, 19 men with MetS (National Cholesterol Education Program-Adult Treatment Panel III (NCEP-ATPIII) criteria), aged between 24 and 62 years, first consumed a five-week standardized North American control diet followed by a five-week MedDiet, both under weight-maintaining controlled-feeding conditions. This was followed by a 20-week caloric restriction weight loss period in free-living conditions, without specific recommendations towards adhering to the principles of the MedDiet. Participants were finally subjected to a final five-week MedDiet phase under isoenergetic controlled-feeding conditions. The MedDiet before weight loss had no impact on eating behavioral traits. Body weight reduction by caloric restriction (-10.2% of initial weight) was associated with increased cognitive restraint ( p < 0.0001) and with reduced disinhibition ( p = 0.02) and susceptibility to hunger ( p = 0.01). Feeding the MedDiet for five weeks under isoenergetic conditions after the weight loss phase had no further impact on eating behavioral traits. Results of this controlled-feeding study suggest that consumption of the MedDiet per se has no effect on eating behavioral traits as measured by TFEQ, unless it is combined with significant weight loss.

The metabolic syndrome in an Arab population: a first look at the new International Diabetes Federation criteria.

PubMed

Harzallah, F; Alberti, H; Ben Khalifa, F

2006-04-01

To report the prevalence of the metabolic syndrome in Arab men and women using the new International Diabetes Federation (IDF) criteria, and to compare this with the prevalence using the 1999 World Health Organization (WHO) and 2001 National Cholesterol Education Program Adult Treatment Panel III (NECP ATPIII) definitions. The study involved 863 subjects (343 men and 520 women) aged > or = 40 years living in Tunis, Tunisia, taken from an initially randomized, population sample. The prevalence of the metabolic syndrome using the IDF criteria was found to be 45.5%; 55.8% in women and 30.0% in men (P < 0.001), higher than the rates of 28.7% (WHO) and 24.3% (NECP ATPIII) using the previous definitions. Using all the definitions, the prevalence was higher in women than in men predominantly because of significant differences in central obesity and high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol and, to a lesser extent, hypertension. The increased prevalence using the IDF criteria compared with the 1999 WHO criteria and the 2001 NCEP ATPIII definitions is striking and has huge implications for public health worldwide. The major reason for the higher rate using the new definition seems to be the predominant focus placed on central obesity. Using tighter criteria for fasting glycaemia has also played a factor. The question remains as yet unanswered as to whether the new IDF criteria are better at predicting hard outcomes such as diabetes mellitus and cardiovascular diseases.

Hypertension and hyperlipidemia management in patients treated at community health centers.

PubMed

Kirchhoff, Anne C; Drum, Melinda L; Zhang, James X; Schlichting, Jennifer; Levie, Jessica; Harrison, James F; Lippold, Susan A; Schaefer, Cynthia T; Chin, Marshall H

2008-01-01

OBJECTIVE: Community health centers (HCs) provide care for millions of medically underserved Americans with disproportionate burdens of hypertension and hyperlipidemia. For both conditions, treatment guidelines recently became more stringent and quality improvement (QI) efforts have intensified. We assessed hypertension and hyperlipidemia management in HCs during this time of guideline revision and increased QI efforts. DESIGN: Cross-sectional chart review. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Eleven Midwestern HCs for 2000 and 9 for 2002 provided audit data from 2,976 randomly chosen patients with hypertension and/or hyperlipidemia. MEASUREMENT: Joint National Committee on Prevention, Detection, Evaluation and Treatment of High Blood Pressure (JNC VI/VII) and National Cholesterol Education Program Adult Treatment Panel (NCEP-ATP III) guidelines were used to assess management of these conditions. RESULTS: Hypertension (2000, N=808; 2002, N=692) and hyperlipidemia (2000, N=774; 2002, N=702) outcomes improved for specific clinical subgroups. Hypertensive patients with 1 or more cardiovascular risk factors demonstrated significant improvement (34% vs. 45% controlled at <140/90 mm Hg, p=0.02). Hypertension control for persons with diabetes, renal failure and heart failure increased (16% vs. 28% controlled at <130/85 mm Hg, p=0.006). LDL control increased significantly for patients with 2 or more risk factors (39% vs. 58% controlled at <130 mg/dl, p=0.008). Other clinical subgroups showed trends toward better control, although there was insufficient power to detect significant differences for these groups. CONCLUSION: Hypertension and hyperlipidemia outcomes improved for some risk groups; however, ongoing QI is necessary.

Metabolic syndrome in Tunisian bipolar I patients.

PubMed

Ezzaher, A; Haj, Mouhamed D; Mechri, A; Neffati, F; Douki, W; Gaha, L; Najjar, M F

2011-09-01

The metabolic syndrome is a growing global public health problem which is frequently associated with psychiatric illness. To evaluate the prevalence of metabolic syndrome and to study its profile in Tunisian bipolar I patients. Our study included 130 patients with bipolar I disorder diagnosed according to the DSM-IV and assessed for metabolic syndrome according to the National Cholesterol Education Program (NCEP) Adult Treatment Panel (ATP) III modified criteria. The mean age was 37.9 ± 12.1 years, 45 were women (mean age 37.5 ± 13.4 years) and 85 were men (mean age 38.1 ± 11.4 years). The prevalence of metabolic syndrome was 26.1%.The highest prevalence of this syndrome was obtained by association between obesity, low c-HDL and hypertriglyceridemia (44.1%). In the total sample, 59.2% met the criteria for low c-HDL, 53.1% for hypertriglyceridemia, 33.8% for obesity, 16.1% for high fasting glucose and 5.4% for hypertension. Gender, age, illness episode and treatment were not significantly associated with metabolic syndrome, while patients under lithium had higher prevalence of metabolic syndrome than those under valproic acid, carbamazepine or antipsychotics. Patients with metabolic syndrome had significant higher levels of HOMA-IR and uric acid than metabolic syndrome free patients (p< 0.001). Bipolar patients have high prevalence of metabolic syndrome which is associated with insulin resistance and an increase of uric acid values that raise the risk of cardiovascular disease.

Evaluation of atmospheric precipitable water from reanalysis products using homogenized radiosonde observations over China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Tianbao; Wang, Juanhuai; Dai, Aiguo

2015-10-01

Many multidecadal atmospheric reanalysis products are available now, but their consistencies and reliability are far from perfect. In this study, atmospheric precipitable water (PW) from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR), NCEP/Department of Energy (DOE), Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA), Japanese 55 year Reanalysis (JRA-55), JRA-25, ERA-Interim, ERA-40, Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), and 20th Century Reanalysis version 2 is evaluated against homogenized radiosonde observations over China during 1979-2012 (1979-2001 for ERA-40). Results suggest that the PW biases in the reanalyses are within ˜20% for most of northern and eastern China, but the reanalyses underestimate the observed PW by 20%-40% over western China and by ˜60% over the southwestern Tibetan Plateau. The newer-generation reanalyses (e.g., JRA25, JRA55, CFSR, and ERA-Interim) have smaller root-mean-square error than the older-generation ones (NCEP/NCAR, NCEP/DOE, and ERA-40). Most of the reanalyses reproduce well the observed PW climatology and interannual variations over China. However, few reanalyses capture the observed long-term PW changes, primarily because they show spurious wet biases before about 2002. This deficiency results mainly from the discontinuities contained in reanalysis relative humidity fields in the middle-lower troposphere due to the wet bias in older radiosonde records that are assimilated into the reanalyses. An empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis revealed two leading modes that represent the long-term PW changes and El Niño-Southern Oscillation-related interannual variations with robust spatial patterns. The reanalysis products, especially the MERRA and JRA-25, roughly capture these EOF modes, which account for over 50% of the total variance. The results show that even during the post-1979 satellite era, discontinuities in radiosonde data can still induce large spurious long-term changes in reanalysis PW and other related fields. Thus, more efforts are needed to remove spurious changes in input data for future long-term reanalyses.

Evaluation of land-surface interaction in ECMWF and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis models over grassland (FIFE) and boreal forest (BOREAS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Betts, Alan K.; Viterbo, Pedro; Beljaars, Anton; Pan, Hua-Lu; Hong, Song-You; Goulden, Mike; Wofsy, Steve

1998-09-01

The National Center for Environmental Prediction and National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis models are compared with First ISLSCP (International Satellite Land Surface Climatology Project) Field Experiment (FIFE) grassland data from Kansas in 1987 and Boreal Ecosystem-Atmosphere Study (BOREAS) data from an old black spruce site in 1996 near Thompson, Manitoba. Some aspects of the comparison are similar for the two ecosystems. Over grassland and after snowmelt in the boreal forest, both models represent the seasonal cycle of near-surface temperature well. The two models have quite different soil hydrology components. The ECMWF model includes soil water nudging based on low level humidity errors. While this works quite well for the FIFE grassland, it appears to give too high evaporation over the boreal forest. The NCEP/NCAR model constrains long-term drifts by nudging deep soil water toward climatology. Over the FIFE site, this seems to give too low evaporation in midsummer, while at the BOREAS site, evaporation in this model is high. Both models have some difficulty representing the surface diurnal cycle of humidity. In the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis this leads to errors primarily in June, when the surface boundary layer stays saturated and too much precipitation occurs. In the ECMWF reanalysis there is a morning peak of mixing ratio, which an earlier work showed resulted from too shallow a boundary layer in the morning. Over the northern boreal forest there are important physical processes, which are not represented in either reanalysis model. In particular very high model albedos in spring, when there is snow under the forest canopy, lead to a very low daytime net radiation. This in turn leads to a large underestimate of the daytime surface fluxes, particularly the sensible heat flux, and to daytime model surface temperatures that are as much as 15 K low. In addition, the models do not account for the reduction in evaporation associated with frozen soil, and they generally have too large evapotranspiration in June and July, probably because they do not model the tight stomatal control of the coniferous forest.

Applying an economical scale-aware PDF-based turbulence closure model in NOAA NCEP GCMs.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krueger, S. K.; Belochitski, A.; Moorthi, S.; Bogenschutz, P.; Pincus, R.

2015-12-01

A novel unified representation of sub-grid scale (SGS) turbulence, cloudiness, and shallow convection is being implemented into the NOAA NCEP Global Forecasting System (GFS) general circulation model. The approach, known as Simplified High Order Closure (SHOC), is based on predicting a joint PDF of SGS thermodynamic variables and vertical velocity and using it to diagnose turbulent diffusion coefficients, SGS fluxes, condensation and cloudiness. Unlike other similar methods, only one new prognostic variable, turbulent kinetic energy (TKE), needs to be intoduced, making the technique computationally efficient.SHOC code was adopted for a global model environment from its origins in a cloud resolving model, and incorporated into NCEP GFS. SHOC was first tested in a non-interactive mode, a configuration where SHOC receives inputs from the host model, but its outputs are not returned to the GFS. In this configuration: a) SGS TKE values produced by GFS SHOC are consistent with those produced by SHOC in a CRM, b) SGS TKE in GFS SHOC exhibits a well defined diurnal cycle, c) there's enhanced boundary layer turbulence in the subtropical stratocumulus and tropical transition-to-cumulus areas d) buoyancy flux diagnosed from the assumed PDF is consistent with independently calculated Brunt-Vaisala frequency in identifying stable and unstable regions.Next, SHOC was coupled to GFS, namely turbulent diffusion coefficients computed by SHOC are now used in place of those currently produced by the GFS boundary layer and shallow convection schemes (Han and Pan, 2011), as well as condensation and cloud fraction diagnosed from the SGS PDF replace those calculated in the current large-scale cloudines scheme (Zhao and Carr, 1997). Ongoing activities consist of debugging the fully coupled GFS/SHOC.Future work will consist of evaluating model performance and tuning the physics if necessary, by performing medium-range NWP forecasts with prescribed initial conditions, and AMIP-type climate tests with prescribed SSTs. Depending on the results, the model will be tuned or parameterizations modified. Next, SHOC will be implemented in the NCEP CFS, and tuned and evaluated for climate applications - seasonal prediction and long coupled climate runs. Impact of new physics on ENSO, MJO, ISO, monsoon variability, etc will be examined.

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code. Press enter or select the go button to submit request Local forecast by "City, St" City , St Go Search NCEP Go Current Hazards Watches/Warnings Outlooks National Current Conditions

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. UPCOMING CHANGES...THE CHANGES LISTED BELOW WILL BE INCORPORATED INTO THE MODEL ON THE EFFECTIVE CHANGE /WPS/. IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS CONCERNING THESE CHANGES...PLEASE CONTACT: GEOFF DIMEGO NCEP

Impacts of Modeled Recommendations of the National Commission on Energy Policy

EIA Publications

2005-01-01

This report provides the Energy Information Administration's analysis of those National Commission on Energy Policy (NCEP) energy policy recommendations that could be simulated using the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS).

Using Ground Measurements to Examine the Surface Layer Parameterization Scheme in NCEP GFS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, W.; Ek, M. B.; Mitchell, K.

2017-12-01

Understanding the behavior and the limitation of the surface layer parameneterization scheme is important for parameterization of surface-atmosphere exchange processes in atmospheric models, accurate prediction of near-surface temperature and identifying the role of different physical processes in contributing to errors. In this study, we examine the surface layer paramerization scheme in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecast System (GFS) using the ground flux measurements including the FLUXNET data. The model simulated surface fluxes, surface temperature and vertical profiles of temperature and wind speed are compared against the observations. The limits of applicability of the Monin-Obukhov similarity theory (MOST), which describes the vertical behavior of nondimensionalized mean flow and turbulence properties within the surface layer, are quantified in daytime and nighttime using the data. Results from unstable regimes and stable regimes are discussed.

Technical Report Series on Global Modeling and Data Assimilation. Volume 13; Interannual Variability and Potential Predictability in Reanalysis Products

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Min, Wei; Schubert, Siegfried D.; Suarez, Max J. (Editor)

1997-01-01

The Data Assimilation Office (DAO) at Goddard Space Flight Center and the National Center for Environmental Prediction and National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) have produced multi-year global assimilations of historical data employing fixed analysis systems. These "reanalysis" products are ideally suited for studying short-term climatic variations. The availability of multiple reanalysis products also provides the opportunity to examine the uncertainty in the reanalysis data. The purpose of this document is to provide an updated estimate of seasonal and interannual variability based on the DAO and NCEP/NCAR reanalyses for the 15-year period 1980-1995. Intercomparisons of the seasonal means and their interannual variations are presented for a variety of prognostic and diagnostic fields. In addition, atmospheric potential predictability is re-examined employing selected DAO reanalysis variables.

Implementing of lognormal humidity and cloud-related control variables for the NCEP GSI hybrid EnVAR Assimilation scheme.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fletcher, S. J.; Kleist, D.; Ide, K.

2017-12-01

As the resolution of operational global numerical weather prediction system approach the meso-scale, then the assumption of Gaussianity for the errors at these scales may not valid. However, it is also true that synoptic variables that are positive definite in behavior, for example humidity, cannot be optimally analyzed with a Gaussian error structure, where the increment could force the full field to go negative. In this presentation we present the initial work of implementing a mixed Gaussian-lognormal approximation for the temperature and moisture variable in both the ensemble and variational component of the NCEP GSI hybrid EnVAR. We shall also lay the foundation for the implementation of the lognormal approximation to cloud related control variables to allow for a possible more consistent assimilation of cloudy radiances.

Impact of assimilation of INSAT cloud motion vector (CMV) wind for the prediction of a monsoon depression over Indian Ocean using a mesoscale model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xavier, V. F.; Chandrasekar, A.; Singh, Devendra

2006-12-01

The present study utilized the Penn State/NCAR mesoscale model (MM5), to assimilate the INSAT-CMV (Indian National Satellite System-Cloud Motion Vector) wind observations using analysis nudging to improve the prediction of a monsoon depression which occurred over the Arabian Sea, India during 14 September 2005 to 17 September 2005. NCEP-FNL analysis has been utilized as the initial and lateral boundary conditions and two sets of numerical experiments were designed to reveal the impact of assimilation of satellite-derived winds. The model was integrated from 14 September 2005 00 UTC to 17 September 2005 00 UTC, with just the NCEP FNL analysis in the NOFDDA run. In the FDDA run, the NCEP FNL analysis fields were improved by assimilating the INSAT-CMV (wind speed and wind direction) as well as QuickSCAT sea surface winds during the 24 hour pre-forecast period (14 September 2005 00 UTC to 15 September 2005 00 UTC) using analysis nudging. The model was subsequently run in the free forecast mode from 15 September 2005 00 UTC to 17 September 2005 12 UTC. The simulated sea level pressure field from the NOFDDA run reveals a relatively stronger system as compared to the FDDA run. However, the sea level pressure fields corresponding to the FDDA run are closer to the analysis. The simulated lower tropospheric winds from both experiments reveal a well-developed cyclonic circulation as compared to the analysis.

Assessment of the Effects of Various Precipitation Forcings on Flood Forecasting Potential Using WRF-Hydro Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, J.; Fang, N. Z.

2017-12-01

A potential flood forecast system is under development for the Upper Trinity River Basin (UTRB) in North Central of Texas using the WRF-Hydro model. The Routing Application for the Parallel Computation of Discharge (RAPID) is utilized as channel routing module to simulate streamflow. Model performance analysis was conducted based on three quantitative precipitation estimates (QPE): the North Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) rainfall, the Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS) QPE and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) quality-controlled stage IV estimates. Prior to hydrologic simulation, QPE performance is assessed on two time scales (daily and hourly) using the Community Collaborative Rain, Hail and Snow Network (CoCoRaHS) and Hydrometeorological Automated Data System (HADS) hourly products. The calibrated WRF-Hydro model was then evaluated by comparing the simulated against the USGS observed using various QPE products. The results imply that the NCEP stage IV estimates have the best accuracy among the three QPEs on both time scales, while the NLDAS rainfall performs poorly because of its coarse spatial resolution. Furthermore, precipitation bias demonstrates pronounced impact on flood forecasting skills, as the root mean squared errors are significantly reduced by replacing NLDAS rainfall with NCEP stage IV estimates. This study also demonstrates that accurate simulated results can be achieved when initial soil moisture values are well understood in the WRF-Hydro model. Future research effort will therefore be invested on incorporating data assimilation with focus on initial states of the soil properties for UTRB.

A CPT for Improving Turbulence and Cloud Processes in the NCEP Global Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krueger, S. K.; Moorthi, S.; Randall, D. A.; Pincus, R.; Bogenschutz, P.; Belochitski, A.; Chikira, M.; Dazlich, D. A.; Swales, D. J.; Thakur, P. K.; Yang, F.; Cheng, A.

2016-12-01

Our Climate Process Team (CPT) is based on the premise that the NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction) global models can be improved by installing an integrated, self-consistent description of turbulence, clouds, deep convection, and the interactions between clouds and radiative and microphysical processes. The goal of our CPT is to unify the representation of turbulence and subgrid-scale (SGS) cloud processes and to unify the representation of SGS deep convective precipitation and grid-scale precipitation as the horizontal resolution decreases. We aim to improve the representation of small-scale phenomena by implementing a PDF-based SGS turbulence and cloudiness scheme that replaces the boundary layer turbulence scheme, the shallow convection scheme, and the cloud fraction schemes in the GFS (Global Forecast System) and CFS (Climate Forecast System) global models. We intend to improve the treatment of deep convection by introducing a unified parameterization that scales continuously between the simulation of individual clouds when and where the grid spacing is sufficiently fine and the behavior of a conventional parameterization of deep convection when and where the grid spacing is coarse. We will endeavor to improve the representation of the interactions of clouds, radiation, and microphysics in the GFS/CFS by using the additional information provided by the PDF-based SGS cloud scheme. The team is evaluating the impacts of the model upgrades with metrics used by the NCEP short-range and seasonal forecast operations.

Reconstructing Tropical Pacific Sea Level Variability for the Period 1961-2002 Using a Linear Multimode Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Greatbatch, Richard J.; Zhu, Xiaoting; Claus, Martin

2018-03-01

Monthly mean sea level anomalies in the tropical Pacific for the period 1961-2002 are reconstructed using a linear, multimode model driven by monthly mean wind stress anomalies from the NCEP/NCAR and ERA-40 reanalysis products. Overall, the sea level anomalies reconstructed by both wind stress products agree well with the available tide gauge data, although with poor performance at Kanton Island in the western-central equatorial Pacific and reduced amplitude at Christmas Island. The reduced performance is related to model error in locating the pivot point in sea level variability associated with the so-called "tilt" mode. We present evidence that the pivot point was further west during the period 1993-2014 than during the period 1961-2002 and attribute this to a persistent upward trend in the zonal wind stress variance along the equator west of 160° W throughout the period 1961-2014. Experiments driven by the zonal component of the wind stress alone reproduce much of the trend in sea level found in the experiments driven by both components of the wind stress. The experiments show an upward trend in sea level in the eastern tropical Pacific over the period 1961-2002, but with a much stronger upward trend when using the NCEP/NCAR product. We argue that the latter is related to an overly strong eastward trend in zonal wind stress in the eastern-central Pacific that is believed to be a spurious feature of the NCEP/NCAR product.

Trends in solar radiation in NCEP/NCAR database and measurements in northeastern Brazil

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Silva, Vicente de Paulo Rodrigues da; Silva, Roberta Araujo e; Cavalcanti, Enilson Palmeira

2010-10-15

The database from the National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) re-analysis project available for the period from 1948 to 2009 was used for obtaining long-term solar radiation for northeastern Brazil. Measurements of global solar radiation (R{sub s}) from data collection platform (DCP) for four climatic zones of northeastern Brazil were compared to the re-analysis data. Applying cluster analysis to R{sub s} from database, homogeneous sub-regions in northeastern Brazil were determined. Long times series of R{sub s} and sunshine duration measurements data for two sites, Petrolina (09 09'S, 40 22'W) and Juazeiro (09 24'S, 40 26'W), exceedingmore » 30 years, were analyzed. In order to exclude the decadal variations which are linked to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, high-frequency cycles in the solar radiation and sunshine duration time series were eliminated by using a 14-year moving average, and the Mann-Kendall test was employed to assess the long-term variability of re-analysis and measured solar radiation. This study provides an overview of the decrease in solar radiation in a large area, which can be attributed to the global dimming effect. The global solar radiation obtained from the NCEP/NCAR re-analysis data overestimate that obtained from DCP measurements by 1.6% to 18.6%. Results show that there is a notable symmetry between R{sub s} from the re-analysis data and sunshine duration measurements. (author)« less

The Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center (FNMOC) - Naval

Science.gov Websites

Prediction Charts (EFS). WxMAP depictions of NAVGEM predictions for side-by-side comparison with NCEP global NWP model (GFS) are also available. Oceanography Products This area provides Global & Regional

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Science.gov Websites

Version] Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 337 PM EDT Sun May available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php Last Updated: 337 PM EDT Sun May 27 2018

The importance of reaching lipid targets: statins and the prevention of atherosclerosis.

PubMed

Schwandt, P

2003-06-01

To help prevent the development of coronary heart disease (CHD), the European and NCEP guidelines have recommended target cholesterol levels for all individuals. Lifestyle changes are advocated for individuals not achieving these targets. Intervention with lipid-modifying agents may be required for patients at high risk of a cardiovascular event and statins are generally recognised as first-line therapy. Unfortunately, large numbers of patients at risk of cardiovascular events are not being treated to the guideline targets. Primary care physicians are in a good position to improve lipid management by assessing risk factors, implementing lipid management strategies, monitoring whether targets are being reached and amending treatment appropriately. Furthermore, by educating and motivating patients,primary care physicians may improve compliance with lifestyle changes and medication. These approaches may help more patients to achieve recommended lipid levels and prevent the development of cardiovascular disease.

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Science.gov Websites

2008073000 2008072900 2008072800 Background information bias reduction = ( | domain-averaged ensemble mean bias | - | domain-averaged bias-corrected ensemble mean bias | / | domain-averaged bias-corrected ensemble mean bias | NAEFS Products | NAEFS | EMC Ensemble Products EMC | NCEP | National Weather Service

The structure and rainfall features of Tropical Cyclone Rammasun (2002)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Leiming; Duan, Yihong; Zhu, Yongti

2004-12-01

Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) data [TRMM Microwave Imager/Precipitation Radar/Visible and Infrared Scanner (TMI/PR/VIRS)] and a numerical model are used to investigate the structure and rainfall features of Tropical Cyclone (TC) Rammasun (2002). Based on the analysis of TRMM data, which are diagnosed together with NCEP/AVN [Aviation (global model)] analysis data, some typical features of TC structure and rainfall are preliminary discovered. Since the limitations of TRMM data are considered for their time resolution and coverage, the world observed by TRMM at several moments cannot be taken as the representation of the whole period of the TC lifecycle, therefore the picture should be reproduced by a numerical model of high quality. To better understand the structure and rainfall features of TC Rammasun, a numerical simulation is carried out with mesoscale model MM5 in which the validations have been made with the data of TRMM and NCEP/AVN analysis.

Precipitation Retrievals in typhoon domain combining of FY3C MWHTS Observations and WRF Predicted Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jieying, HE; Shengwei, ZHANG; Na, LI

2017-02-01

A passive sub-millimeter precipitation retrievals algorithm is provided based on Microwave Humidity and Temperature Sounder (MWHTS) onboard the Chinese Feng Yun 3C (FY-3C) satellite. Using the validated global reference physical model NCEP/WRF/VDISORT), NCEP data per 6 hours are downloaded to run the Weather Research and Forecast model WRF, and derive the typical precipitation data from the whole world. The precipitation retrieval algorithm can operate either on land or on seawater for global. To simply the calculation procedure and save the training time, principle component analysis (PCA) was adapted to filter out the redundancy caused by scanning angle and surface effects, as well as system noise. According to the comparison and validation combing with other precipitation sources, it is demonstrated that the retrievals are reliable for surface precipitation rate higher than 0.1 mm/h at 15km resolution.

The stratospheric QBO signal in the NCEP reanalysis, 1958-2001

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ribera, Pedro; Gallego, David; Peña-Ortiz, Cristina; Gimeno, Luis; Garcia-Herrera, Ricardo; Hernandez, Emiliano; Calvo, Natalia

2003-07-01

The spatiotemporal evolution of the zonal wind in the stratosphere is analyzed based on the use of the NCEP reanalysis (1958-2001). MultiTaper Method-Singular Value Decomposition (MTM-SVD), a frequency-domain analysis method, is applied to isolate significant spatially-coherent variability with narrowband oscillatory character. A quasibiennial oscillation is detected as the most intense coherent signal in the stratosphere, the signal being less intense in the lower levels. There is a clear downward propagation of the signal with time at low latitudes, not evident at mid and high latitudes. There are differences in the behavior of the signal over both hemispheres, being much weaker over the SH. In the NH an anomaly in the zonal wind field, in phase with the equatorial signal, is detected at approximately 60°N. Two different areas at subtropical latitudes are detected to be characterized by wind anomalies opposed to that of the equator.

Weekly cycle in the NCAR-NCEP reanalysis of the surface temperature over northern atlantic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tesouro, M.; Gimeno, L.; Nieto, R.; Añel, J. A.; de La Torre, L.; Ribera, P.; García, R.; Hernández, E.

2003-04-01

Anthropogenic influences on climate has been detected in several climate variables, such as temperature increases and precipitation enhacement. An indicator of the anthropogenic effect is the identification of equivalent weekly cycle in climate parameters. In this case, we analyze the weekly cycle of the daily temperature at 2 metres from the NCAR-NCEP Reanalysis. The region of study is the window from 90ºW to 90ºE and from 88.5ºN to Equator and for the last 44 years. Results don´t show a clear pattern of the weekly cycle although it was possible to identify a minimum on Saturday in most of the grid points. We also analyze the weekly cycle of the temperature channel-2 MSU data that represent the lower troposphere and results don´t show any weekly cycle.

An Investigation of Bomb Cyclone Climatology: Reanalysis vs. NCEP's CFS Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alvarez, F. M.; Eichler, T.; Gottschalck, J.

2009-12-01

Given the concerns and potential impacts of climate change, the need for climate models to simulate weather phenomena is as important as ever. An example of such phenomena is rapidly intensifying cyclones, also known as "bombs." These intense cyclones have devastating effects on residential and marine commercial interests as well as the transportation industry. In this study, we generate a climatology of rapid cyclogenesis using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction’s (NCEP) Climate Forecast System (CFS) model. Results are compared to NCEP’s global reanalysis data to determine if the CFS model is capable of producing a realistic extreme storm climatology. This represents the first step in quantifying rapidly intensifying cyclones in the CFS model, which will be useful in contributing towards future model improvements, as well as gauging its ability in determining the role of synoptic-scale storms in climate change.

Diagnosing causes of cloud parameterization deficiencies using ARM measurements over SGP site

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wu, W.; Liu, Y.; Betts, A. K.

2010-03-15

Decade-long continuous surface-based measurements at Great Southern Plains (SGP) collected by the US Department of Energy’s Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Climate Research Facility are first used to evaluate the three major reanalyses (i.e., ERA-Interim, NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis I and NCEP/DOE Reanalysis II) to identify model biases in simulating surface shortwave cloud forcing and total cloud fraction. The results show large systematic lower biases in the modeled surface shortwave cloud forcing and cloud fraction from all the three reanalysis datasets. Then we focus on diagnosing the causes of these model biases using the Active Remote Sensing of Clouds (ARSCL) products (e.g., verticalmore » distribution of cloud fraction, cloud-base and cloud-top heights, and cloud optical depth) and meteorological measurements (temperature, humidity and stability). Efforts are made to couple cloud properties with boundary processes in the diagnosis.« less

Solar cycle signatures in the NCEP equatorial annual oscillation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mayr, H. G.; Mengel, J. G.; Huang, F. T.; Nash, E. R.

2009-08-01

Our analysis of temperature and zonal wind data (1958 to 2006) from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) reanalysis (Re-1), supplied by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), shows that the hemispherically symmetric 12-month equatorial annual oscillation (EAO) contains spectral signatures with periods around 11 years. Moving windows of 44 years show that, below 20 km, the 11-year modulation of the EAO is phase locked to the solar cycle (SC). The spectral features from the 48-year data record reveal modulation signatures of 9.6 and 12 years, which produce EAO variations that mimic in limited altitude regimes the varying maxima and minima of the 10.7 cm flux solar index. Above 20 km, the spectra also contain modulation signatures with periods around 11 years, but the filtered variations are too irregular to suggest that systematic SC forcing is the principal agent.

Prevalence and factors associated with metabolic syndrome in patients with rheumatoid arthritis and systemic lupus erythematosus.

PubMed

Zonana-Nacach, Abraham; Santana-Sahagún, Ernesto; Jiménez-Balderas, Francisco Javier; Camargo-Coronel, Adolfo

2008-04-01

To assess the frequency and factors associated with metabolic syndrome in adult female patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) and systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). During January and June 2006, 192 consecutive adult female patients seen during their scheduled appointment at the out-patient rheumatology clinic and meeting the American College of Rheumatology classification criteria for RA and SLE were invited to participate in this study. Sociodemographic, menopausal status, personal history of coronary heart disease, and physical activity were evaluated. According to the National Cholesterol Education Program Adult Treatment III (NCEP/ATP III), metabolic syndrome was defined as >or=3 of the following criteria: increased waist circumference (>88 cm or 35 inches), hypertriglyceridemia (>or=150 mg/dL), low (<40 mg/dL) high-density lipoprotein, hypertension, and high fasting glucose (>or=110 mg/dL). : One hundred-seven RA and 85 SLE patients with a mean age of 43 +/- 13 years were included in this study. The frequency of obesity and abnormal waist circumference were similar in RA and SLE patients. Two percent were underweight, 35% had a normal weight, 37% were overweight, and 25% were obese. The frequency of metabolic syndrome in RA and SLE patients was 17%. Metabolic syndrome was significantly associated with greater age, less education, lower income, and smoking. In RA patients, metabolic syndrome was significantly associated with a shorter treatment period with methotrexate, with pain, and with health assessment questionnaire scores. By multivariate logistic regression, the only statistically significant predictor of metabolic syndrome was smoking. The frequency of metabolic syndrome in RA and SLE patients was similar and associated with smoking. In RA patients, metabolic syndrome was related with pain and functional status, suggesting disease activity. A better control of disease activity may reduce the presence of metabolic syndrome and the risk of cardiovascular disease.

NAME Modeling and Climate Process Team

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schemm, J. E.; Williams, L. N.; Gutzler, D. S.

2007-05-01

NAME Climate Process and Modeling Team (CPT) has been established to address the need of linking climate process research to model development and testing activities for warm season climate prediction. The project builds on two existing NAME-related modeling efforts. One major component of this project is the organization and implementation of a second phase of NAMAP, based on the 2004 season. NAMAP2 will re-examine the metrics proposed by NAMAP, extend the NAMAP analysis to transient variability, exploit the extensive observational database provided by NAME 2004 to analyze simulation targets of special interest, and expand participation. Vertical column analysis will bring local NAME observations and model outputs together in a context where key physical processes in the models can be evaluated and improved. The second component builds on the current NAME-related modeling effort focused on the diurnal cycle of precipitation in several global models, including those implemented at NCEP, NASA and GFDL. Our activities will focus on the ability of the operational NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS) to simulate the diurnal and seasonal evolution of warm season precipitation during the NAME 2004 EOP, and on changes to the treatment of deep convection in the complicated terrain of the NAMS domain that are necessary to improve the simulations, and ultimately predictions of warm season precipitation These activities will be strongly tied to NAMAP2 to ensure technology transfer from research to operations. Results based on experiments conducted with the NCEP CFS GCM will be reported at the conference with emphasis on the impact of horizontal resolution in predicting warm season precipitation over North America.

Evaluating global reanalysis datasets for provision of boundary conditions in regional climate modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moalafhi, Ditiro B.; Evans, Jason P.; Sharma, Ashish

2016-11-01

Regional climate modelling studies often begin by downscaling a reanalysis dataset in order to simulate the observed climate, allowing the investigation of regional climate processes and quantification of the errors associated with the regional model. To date choice of reanalysis to perform such downscaling has been made based either on convenience or on performance of the reanalyses within the regional domain for relevant variables such as near-surface air temperature and precipitation. However, the only information passed from the reanalysis to the regional model are the atmospheric temperature, moisture and winds at the location of the boundaries of the regional domain. Here we present a methodology to evaluate reanalyses derived lateral boundary conditions for an example domain over southern Africa using satellite data. This study focusses on atmospheric temperature and moisture which are easily available. Five commonly used global reanalyses (NCEP1, NCEP2, ERA-I, 20CRv2, and MERRA) are evaluated against the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder satellite temperature and relative humidity over boundaries of two domains centred on southern Africa for the years 2003-2012 inclusive. The study reveals that MERRA is the most suitable for climate mean with NCEP1 the next most suitable. For climate variability, ERA-I is the best followed by MERRA. Overall, MERRA is preferred for generating lateral boundary conditions for this domain, followed by ERA-I. While a "better" LBC specification is not the sole precursor to an improved downscaling outcome, any reduction in uncertainty associated with the specification of LBCs is a step in the right direction.

Stratospheric Semi-Decadal Oscillations in NCEP Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mayr, H. G.; Mengel, J. G.; Huang, F. T.; Talaat, E. R.; Nash, E. R.; Reddy, C. A.

2008-01-01

An analysis of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) data is presented to provide a more complete description of the stratospheric 5-year semi-decadal (SD) oscillation (Mayr et al., 2007). The zonal-mean temperature and zonal wind data from the Atmospheric Research R-1 analysis are employed, covering the years from 1962 to 2002 in the altitude range from 10 to 30km. For diagnostic purposes, the data are separated into the hemispherically symmetric and anti-symmetric components, and spectral analysis is applied to identify the signatures of the SD oscillations. Through the synthesis or filtering of spectral features, the SD modulations of the annual oscillation (AO) and quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) are delineated. In agreement with the earlier findings, the magnitude of the SD oscillation is more pronounced when the 30-month QBO dominates during the years from 1975 to 1995. This is consistent with results from a numerical model, which shows that such a QBO generates the SD oscillation through interaction with the 12-month AO. In the zonal winds, the SD oscillation in the NCEP data is confined to equatorial latitudes, where it modulates the symmetric AO and QBO by about 5 m/s below 30 km. In the temperature data, the effect is also seen around the equator, but it is much larger at polar latitudes where the SD oscillation produces variations as large as 2 K. Our data analysis indicates that the SD oscillation is mainly hemispherically symmetric, and it appears to originate at equatorial latitudes where most of the energy resides.

Heterogeneous phenotypes of insulin resistance and its implications for defining metabolic syndrome in Asian Indian adolescents.

PubMed

Vikram, Naval K; Misra, Anoop; Pandey, Ravindra M; Luthra, Kalpana; Wasir, Jasjeet S; Dhingra, Vibha

2006-05-01

To assess the phenotypic correlations of insulin resistance with obesity and its relationship with the metabolic syndrome in Asian Indian adolescents. We analyzed clinical, anthropometric (body mass index [BMI], waist circumference [WC]) and laboratory (fasting blood glucose [FBG], lipids and fasting serum insulin) data from 793 subjects (401 males and 392 females) aged 14-19 years randomly selected from Epidemiological Study of Adolescents and Young (ESAY) adults (n=1447). The percentile cut-offs for 14-19 years age from ESAY cohort were used for defining abnormal values of variables. We devised three sets of definitions of metabolic syndrome by including BMI and fasting insulin levels with other defining variables. Nearly 28.9% of adolescents had fasting hyperinsulinemia despite normal values of BMI, WC, FBG, lipids, and blood pressure. Remarkably, NCEP criteria with appropriate percentile cut-off points for Asian Indian adolescents identified metabolic syndrome in only six (0.8%) subjects. Inclusion of both BMI and WC in the definition resulted in increase in the prevalence of metabolic syndrome to 4.3%. With inclusion of hyperinsulinemia, the prevalence of metabolic syndrome increased to 4.2% (from 0.8%) in the modified NCEP definition, 5.2% (from 0.9%) when BMI was substituted for WC, and 10.2 (from 4.3%) when both BMI and WC were included. Our data show marked heterogeneity of phenotypes of insulin resistance and poor value of NCEP definition to identify metabolic syndrome. We propose that BMI and fasting insulin should be evaluated in candidate definitions of metabolic syndrome in Asian Indian adolescents.

The role of land surface fluxes in Saudi-KAU AGCM: Temperature climatology over the Arabian Peninsula for the period 1981-2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ashfaqur Rahman, M.; Almazroui, Mansour; Nazrul Islam, M.; O'Brien, Enda; Yousef, Ahmed Elsayed

2018-02-01

A new version of the Community Land Model (CLM) was introduced to the Saudi King Abdulaziz University Atmospheric Global Climate Model (Saudi-KAU AGCM) for better land surface component representation, and so to enhance climate simulation. CLM replaced the original land surface model (LSM) in Saudi-KAU AGCM, with the aim of simulating more accurate land surface fluxes globally, but especially over the Arabian Peninsula. To evaluate the performance of Saudi-KAU AGCM, simulations were completed with CLM and LSM for the period 1981-2010. In comparison with LSM, CLM generates surface air temperature values that are closer to National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) observations. The global annual averages of land surface air temperature are 9.51, 9.52, and 9.57 °C for NCEP, CLM, and LSM respectively, although the same atmospheric radiative and surface forcing from Saudi-KAU AGCM are provided to both LSM and CLM at every time step. The better temperature simulations when using CLM can be attributed to the more comprehensive plant functional type and hierarchical tile approach to the land cover type in CLM, along with better parameterization of upward land surface fluxes compared to LSM. At global scale, CLM exhibits smaller annual and seasonal mean biases of temperature with respect to NCEP data. Moreover, at regional scale, CLM demonstrates reasonable seasonal and annual mean temperature over the Arabian Peninsula as compared to the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) data. Finally, CLM generated better matches to single point-wise observations of surface air temperature and surface fluxes for some case studies.

How is Version 6 different than earlier versions?

Atmospheric Science Data Center

2015-10-28

... integrated a priori CO profile. Second, the diagnostic 'Water Vapor Climatology Content' has been deleted. This diagnostic was included in previous products because of a data quality issue with the NCEP water vapor profiles. MERRA-based water vapor ...

NCEP Air Quality Forecast(AQF) Graphics

Science.gov Websites

NAM-CMAQ Experimental Run predictions 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 Select experimental bias correction predictions NAM vs Nest forecasts Change Variable Type: Hourly CMAQ Forecasts

Vertical Moist Thermodynamic Structure and Spatial-Temporal Evolution of the MJO in AIRS Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tian, Baijun; Waliser, Duane E.; Fetzer, Eric J.; Lambrigtsen, Bjorn H.; Yung, Yuk L.; Wang, Bin

2006-01-01

The atmospheric moisture and temperature profiles from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS)/Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit on the NASA Aqua mission, in combination with the precipitation from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), are employed to study the vertical moist thermodynamic structure and spatial-temporal evolution of the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO). The AIRS data indicate that, in the Indian Ocean and western Pacific, the temperature anomaly exhibits a trimodal vertical structure: a warm (cold) anomaly in the free troposphere (800-250 hPa) and a cold (warm) anomaly near the tropopause (above 250 hPa) and in the lower troposphere (below 800 hPa) associated with enhanced (suppressed) convection. The AIRS moisture anomaly also shows markedly different vertical structures as a function of longitude and the strength of convection anomaly. Most significantly, the AIRS data demonstrate that, over the Indian Ocean and western Pacific, the enhanced (suppressed) convection is generally preceded in both time and space by a low-level warm and moist (cold and dry) anomaly and followed by a low-level cold and dry (warm and moist) anomaly. The MJO vertical moist thermodynamic structure from the AIRS data is in general agreement, particularly in the free troposphere, with previous studies based on global reanalysis and limited radiosonde data. However, major differences in the lower-troposphere moisture and temperature structure between the AIRS observations and the NCEP reanalysis are found over the Indian and Pacific Oceans, where there are very few conventional data to constrain the reanalysis. Specifically, the anomalous lower-troposphere temperature structure is much less well defined in NCEP than in AIRS for the western Pacific, and even has the opposite sign anomalies compared to AIRS relative to the wet/dry phase of the MJO in the Indian Ocean. Moreover, there are well-defined eastward-tilting variations of moisture with height in AIRS over the central and eastern Pacific that are less well defined, and in some cases absent, in NCEP. In addition, the correlation between MJO-related mid-tropospheric water vapor anomalies and TRMM precipitation anomalies is considerably more robust in AIRS than in NCEP, especially over the Indian Ocean. Overall, the AIRS results are quite consistent with those predicted by the frictional Kelvin-Rossby wave/conditional instability of the second kind (CISK) theory for the MJO.

Low Cloud Type over the Ocean from Surface Observations. Part III: Relationship to Vertical Motion and the Regional Surface Synoptic Environment.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Norris, Joel R.; Klein, Stephen A.

2000-01-01

Composite large-scale dynamical fields contemporaneous with low cloud types observed at midlatitude Ocean Weather Station (OWS) C and eastern subtropical OWS N are used to establish representative relationships between low cloud type and the synoptic environment. The composites are constructed by averaging meteorological observations of surface wind and sea level pressure from volunteering observing ships (VOS) and analyses of sea level pressure, 1000-mb wind, and 700-mb pressure vertical velocity from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP-NCAR) reanalysis project on those dates and times of day when a particular low cloud type was reported at the OWS.VOS and NCEP results for OWS C during summer show that bad-weather stratus occurs with strong convergence and ascent slightly ahead of a surface low center and trough. Cumulus-under-stratocumulus and moderate and large cumulus occur with divergence and subsidence in the cold sector of an extratropical cyclone. Both sky-obscuring fog and no-low-cloud typically occur with southwesterly flow from regions of warmer sea surface temperature and differ primarily according to slight surface convergence and stronger warm advection in the case of sky-obscuring fog or surface divergence and weaker warm advection in the case of no-low-cloud. Fair-weather stratus and ordinary stratocumulus are associated with a mixture of meteorological conditions, but differ with respect to vertical motion in the environment. Fair-weather stratus occurs most commonly in the presence of slight convergence and ascent, while stratocumulus often occurs in the presence of divergence and subsidence.Surface divergence and estimated subsidence at the top of the boundary layer are calculated from VOS observations. At both OWS C and OWS N during summer and winter these values are large for ordinary stratocumulus, less for cumulus-under-stratocumulus, and least (and sometimes slightly negative) for moderate and large cumulus. Subsidence interpolated from NCEP analyses to the top of the boundary layer does not exhibit such variation, but the discrepancy may be due to deficiencies in the analysis procedure or the boundary layer parameterization of the NCEP model. The VOS results suggest that decreasing divergence and subsidence in addition to increasing sea surface temperature may promote the transition from stratocumulus to trade cumulus observed over low-latitude oceans.

Implications of the New ACC/AHA Cholesterol Guidelines for Primary Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Event Prevention in a Multi- Ethnic Cohort: MESA

PubMed Central

Yeboah, Joseph; Sillau, Stefan; Delaney, Joseph C; Blaha, Michael J.; Michos, Erin D; Young, Rebekah; Qureshi, Waqas T; McClelland, Robyn; Burke, Gregory L; Psaty, Bruce M; Herrington, David M

2015-01-01

Background The impact of replacing the NCEP/ ATPIII cholesterol guidelines with the new 2013 ACC/AHA guidelines for primary prevention of cardiovascular disease is unclear. Methods We used risk factor and 10-year clinical event rate data from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA), combined with estimates of efficacy of moderate and high intensity statin therapy from meta-analyses of statin primary prevention trials to estimate 1.) the change in number of subjects eligible for drug therapy, and 2.) the anticipated reduction in atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) events and increment in Type II diabetes (T2DM) associated with the change in cholesterol guidelines. Results Of the 6814 MESA participants, 5437 were not on statins at baseline and had complete data for analysis (mean age 61.4 ±10.3). Using the NCEP/ATP III guidelines 1334 (24.5%) would have been eligible for statin therapy compared with 3015 (55.5%) under the new ACC/AHA guidelines. Among the subset of newly eligible, 127/1742 (7.3%) had an ASCVD event during 10 years of follow-up. Assuming 10 years of moderate intensity statin therapy, the estimated absolute reduction in ASCVD events for the newly eligible group was 2.06% (NNT: 48.6) and the estimated absolute increase in T2DM was 0.90% (NNH: 110.7). Assuming 10 years of high intensity statin therapy, the corresponding estimates for reductions in ASCVD and increases in T2DM were: ASCVD; 2.70% (NNT: 37.5) and T2DM: 2.60% (NNH: 38.6). The estimated effects of moderate intensity statins on 10 year risk for ASCVD and T2DM in participants eligible for statins under the NCEP/ATP III were: 3.20% (NNT: 31.5) and 1.06% (NNH: 94.2) respectively. Conclusion Substituting the NCEP/ATP III cholesterol guidelines with the 2013 ACC/AHA cholesterol guidelines in MESA more than doubled the number of participants eligible for statin therapy. If the new ACC/AHA cholesterol guidelines are adopted and extend the primary prevention population eligible for treatment, the risk-benefit profile is much better for moderate intensity than high intensity statin treatment. PMID:25728729

Effects of Real-Time NASA Vegetation Data on Model Forecasts of Severe Weather

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Case, Jonathan L.; Bell, Jordan R.; LaFontaine, Frank J.; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.

2012-01-01

The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center has developed a Greenness Vegetation Fraction (GVF) dataset, which is updated daily using swaths of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data aboard the NASA-EOS Aqua and Terra satellites. NASA SPoRT started generating daily real-time GVF composites at 1-km resolution over the Continental United States beginning 1 June 2010. A companion poster presentation (Bell et al.) primarily focuses on impact results in an offline configuration of the Noah land surface model (LSM) for the 2010 warm season, comparing the SPoRT/MODIS GVF dataset to the current operational monthly climatology GVF available within the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) models. This paper/presentation primarily focuses on individual case studies of severe weather events to determine the impacts and possible improvements by using the real-time, high-resolution SPoRT-MODIS GVFs in place of the coarser-resolution NCEP climatological GVFs in model simulations. The NASA-Unified WRF (NU-WRF) modeling system is employed to conduct the sensitivity simulations of individual events. The NU-WRF is an integrated modeling system based on the Advanced Research WRF dynamical core that is designed to represents aerosol, cloud, precipitation, and land processes at satellite-resolved scales in a coupled simulation environment. For this experiment, the coupling between the NASA Land Information System (LIS) and the WRF model is utilized to measure the impacts of the daily SPoRT/MODIS versus the monthly NCEP climatology GVFs. First, a spin-up run of the LIS is integrated for two years using the Noah LSM to ensure that the land surface fields reach an equilibrium state on the 4-km grid mesh used. Next, the spin-up LIS is run in two separate modes beginning on 1 June 2010, one continuing with the climatology GVFs while the other uses the daily SPoRT/MODIS GVFs. Finally, snapshots of the LIS land surface fields are used to initialize two different simulations of the NU-WRF, one running with climatology LIS and GVFs, and the other running with experimental LIS and NASA/SPoRT GVFs. In this paper/presentation, case study results will be highlighted in regions with significant differences in GVF between the NCEP climatology and SPoRT product during severe weather episodes.

The northern annular mode in summer and its relation to solar activity variations in the GISS ModelE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Jae N.; Hameed, Sultan; Shindell, Drew T.

2008-03-01

The northern annular mode (NAM) has been successfully used in several studies to understand the variability of the winter atmosphere and its modulation by solar activity. The variability of summer circulation can also be described by the leading empirical orthogonal function (EOF) of geopotential heights. We compare the annular modes of the summer geopotential heights in the northern hemisphere stratosphere and troposphere in the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) ModelE with those in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis. In the stratosphere, the summer NAM obtained from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis as well as from the ModelE simulations has the same sign throughout the northern hemisphere, but shows greater variability at low latitudes. The patterns in both analyses are consistent with the interpretation that low NAM conditions represent an enhancement of the seasonal difference between the summer and the annual averages of geopotential height, temperature and velocity distributions, while the reverse holds for high NAM conditions. Composite analysis of high and low NAM cases in both model and observation suggests that the summer stratosphere is more "summer-like" when the solar activity is near a maximum. This means that the zonal easterly wind flow is stronger and the temperature is higher than normal. Thus increased irradiance favors a low summer NAM. A quantitative comparison of the anti-correlation between the NAM and the solar forcing is presented in the model and in the observation, both of which show lower/higher NAM index in solar maximum/minimum conditions. The temperature fluctuations in simulated solar minimum conditions are greater than in solar maximum throughout the summer stratosphere. The summer NAM in the troposphere obtained from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis has a dipolar zonal structure with maximum variability over the Asian monsoon region. The corresponding EOF in ModelE has a qualitatively similar structure but with less variability in the Asian monsoon region which is displaced eastward of its observed position. In both the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis and the GCM the negative anomalies associated with the NAM in the Euro-Atlantic and Aleutian island regions are enhanced in the solar minimum conditions, though the results are not statistically significant.

Development of JPSS VIIRS Global Gridded Vegetation Index products for NOAA NCEP Environmental Modeling Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vargas, Marco; Miura, Tomoaki; Csiszar, Ivan; Zheng, Weizhong; Wu, Yihua; Ek, Michael

2017-04-01

The first Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS) mission, the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (S-NPP) satellite, was successfully launched in October, 2011, and it will be followed by JPSS-1, slated for launch in 2017. JPSS provides operational continuity of satellite-based observations and products for NOAA's Polar Operational Environmental Satellites (POES). Vegetation products derived from satellite measurements are used for weather forecasting, land modeling, climate research, and monitoring the environment including drought, the health of ecosystems, crop monitoring and forest fires. The operationally produced S-NPP VIIRS Vegetation Index (VI) Environmental Data Record (EDR) includes two vegetation indices: the Top of the Atmosphere (TOA) Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), and the Top of the Canopy (TOC) Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI). For JPSS-1, the S-NPP Vegetation Index EDR algorithm has been updated to include the TOC NDV. The current JPSS operational VI products are generated in granule style at 375 meter resolution at nadir, but these products in granule format cannot be ingested into NOAA operational monitoring and decision making systems. For that reason, the NOAA JPSS Land Team is developing a new global gridded Vegetation Index (VI) product suite for operational use by the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). The new global gridded VIs will be used in the Multi-Physics (MP) version of the Noah land surface model (Noah-MP) in NCEP NOAA Environmental Modeling System (NEMS) for plant growth and data assimilation and to describe vegetation coverage and density in order to model the correct surface energy partition. The new VI 4km resolution global gridded products (TOA NDVI, TOC NDVI and TOC EVI) are being designed to meet the needs of directly ingesting vegetation index variables without the need to develop local gridding and compositing procedures. These VI products will be consistent with the already operational SNPP VIIRS Green Vegetation Fraction (GVF) global gridded 4km resolution. The ultimate goal is a global consistent set of global gridded land products at 1-km resolution to enable consistent use of the products in the full suite of global and regional NCEP land models. The new JPSS vegetation products system is scheduled to transition to operations in the fall of 2017.

Utility of NCEP Operational and Emerging Meteorological Models for Driving Air Quality Prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McQueen, J.; Huang, J.; Huang, H. C.; Shafran, P.; Lee, P.; Pan, L.; Sleinkofer, A. M.; Stajner, I.; Upadhayay, S.; Tallapragada, V.

2017-12-01

Operational air quality predictions for the United States (U. S.) are provided at NOAA by the National Air Quality Forecasting Capability (NAQFC). NAQFC provides nationwide operational predictions of ozone and particulate matter twice per day (at 06 and 12 UTC cycles) at 12 km resolution and 1 hour time intervals through 48 hours and distributed at http://airquality.weather.gov. The NOAA National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) operational North American Mesoscale (NAM) 12 km weather prediction is used to drive the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model. In 2017, the NAM was upgraded in part to reduce a warm 2m temperature bias in Summer (V4). At the same time CMAQ was updated to V5.0.2. Both versions of the models were run in parallel for several months. Therefore the impact of improvements from the atmospheric chemistry model versus upgrades with the weather prediction model could be assessed. . Improvements to CMAQ were related to improvements to improvements in NAM 2 m temperature bias through increasing the opacity of clouds and reducing downward shortwave radiation resulted in reduced ozone photolysis. Higher resolution operational NWP models have recently been introduced as part of the NCEP modeling suite. These include the NAM CONUS Nest (3 km horizontal resolution) run four times per day through 60 hours and the High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR, 3 km) run hourly out to 18 hours. In addition, NCEP with other NOAA labs has begun to develop and test the Next Generation Global Prediction System (NGGPS) based on the FV3 global model. This presentation also overviews recent developments with operational numerical weather prediction and evaluates the ability of these models for predicting low level temperatures, clouds and capturing boundary layer processes important for driving air quality prediction in complex terrain. The assessed meteorological model errors could help determine the magnitude of possible pollutant errors from CMAQ if used for driving meteorology. The NWP models will be evaluated against standard and mesonet fields averaged for various regions during the summer 2017. An evaluation of meteorological fields important to air quality modeling (eg: near surface winds, temperatures, moisture and boundary layer heights, cloud cover) will be reported on.

Uncertainty in the global oceanic CO2 uptake induced by wind forcing: quantification and spatial analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roobaert, Alizée; Laruelle, Goulven G.; Landschützer, Peter; Regnier, Pierre

2018-03-01

The calculation of the air-water CO2 exchange (FCO2) in the ocean not only depends on the gradient in CO2 partial pressure at the air-water interface but also on the parameterization of the gas exchange transfer velocity (k) and the choice of wind product. Here, we present regional and global-scale quantifications of the uncertainty in FCO2 induced by several widely used k formulations and four wind speed data products (CCMP, ERA, NCEP1 and NCEP2). The analysis is performed at a 1° × 1° resolution using the sea surface pCO2 climatology generated by Landschützer et al. (2015a) for the 1991-2011 period, while the regional assessment relies on the segmentation proposed by the Regional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes (RECCAP) project. First, we use k formulations derived from the global 14C inventory relying on a quadratic relationship between k and wind speed (k = c ṡ U102; Sweeney et al., 2007; Takahashi et al., 2009; Wanninkhof, 2014), where c is a calibration coefficient and U10 is the wind speed measured 10 m above the surface. Our results show that the range of global FCO2, calculated with these k relationships, diverge by 12 % when using CCMP, ERA or NCEP1. Due to differences in the regional wind patterns, regional discrepancies in FCO2 are more pronounced than global. These global and regional differences significantly increase when using NCEP2 or other k formulations which include earlier relationships (i.e., Wanninkhof, 1992; Wanninkhof et al., 2009) as well as numerous local and regional parameterizations derived experimentally. To minimize uncertainties associated with the choice of wind product, it is possible to recalculate the coefficient c globally (hereafter called c∗) for a given wind product and its spatio-temporal resolution, in order to match the last evaluation of the global k value. We thus performed these recalculations for each wind product at the resolution and time period of our study but the resulting global FCO2 estimates still diverge by 10 %. These results also reveal that the Equatorial Pacific, the North Atlantic and the Southern Ocean are the regions in which the choice of wind product will most strongly affect the estimation of the FCO2, even when using c∗.

High prevalence of metabolic syndrome in young Hispanic women: findings from the national Sister to Sister campaign.

PubMed

Rodriguez, Fátima; Naderi, Sahar; Wang, Yun; Johnson, Caitlin E; Foody, JoAnne M

2013-04-01

Hispanics are the fastest growing segment of the U.S. population and have a higher prevalence of cardiometabolic risk factors as compared with non-Hispanic whites. Further data suggests that Hispanics have undiagnosed complications of metabolic syndrome, namely diabetes mellitus, at an earlier age. We sought to better understand the epidemiology of metabolic syndrome in Hispanic women using data from a large, community-based health screening program. Using data from the Sister to Sister: The Women's Heart Health Foundation community health fairs from 2008 to 2009 held in 17 U.S. cities, we sought to characterize how cardiometabolic risk profiles vary across age for women by race and ethnicity. Metabolic syndrome was defined using the updated National Cholesterol Education Program Adult Treatment Panel III (NCEP ATP III) guidelines, which included three or more of the following: Waist circumference ≥35 inches, triglycerides ≥150 mg/dL, high-density lipoprotein (HDL) <50 mg/dL, systolic blood pressure ≥130 mmHg or diastolic blood pressure ≥85 mmHg, or a fasting glucose ≥100 mg/dL. A total of 6843 community women were included in the analyses. Metabolic syndrome had a prevalence of 35%. The risk-adjusted odds ratio for metabolic syndrome in Hispanic women versus white women was 1.7 (95% confidence interval, 1.4, 2.0). Dyslipidemia was the strongest predictor of metabolic syndrome among Hispanic women. This disparity appeared most pronounced for younger women. Additional predictors of metabolic syndrome included black race, increasing age, and smoking. In a large, nationally representative sample of women, we found that metabolic syndrome was highly prevalent among young Hispanic women. Efforts specifically targeted to identifying these high-risk women are necessary to prevent the cardiovascular morbidity and mortality associated with metabolic syndrome.

The relationship of three common definitions of the metabolic syndrome with sub-clinical carotid atherosclerosis.

PubMed

Paras, Erica; Mancini, G B John; Lear, Scott A

2008-05-01

Presence of the metabolic syndrome (MetS) increases a patient's risk for future cardiovascular disease. However, there is no consensus as to which of the proposed definitions should be used. Therefore, using carotid atherosclerotic burden as an index of cumulative effects of atherosclerotic risk factors, we assessed the association of the three commonly used MetS definitions with sub-clinical atherosclerosis in a primary prevention population and determined if this association was independent of the component risk factors. A multi-ethnic cohort of 796 men and women without cardiovascular disease was assessed for demographics, risk factors, properties of the carotid arteries using ultrasound and presence or absence of MetS based on each of the World Health Organization (WHO), the National Cholesterol Education Program Expert Panel (NCEP) and the International Diabetes Federation (IDF) definitions. Using any definition, 29% of the cohort had MetS. After adjusting for age, gender, ethnicity and smoking status, participants with MetS had greater intima-media thickening and total area (intima-media area and focal lesion area combined) than participants without MetS. Only participants meeting the WHO MetS criteria had a greater prevalence of focal lesions. After further adjustment for the individual risk factor components of each MetS definition separately, none of MetS definitions was associated with any of the carotid artery measures. All three MetS definitions were associated with measures of sub-clinical carotid atherosclerosis and these associations were entirely mediated through the risk factor components of MetS.

Evaluation of metabolic syndrome prevalence in semi-rural areas of Central Anatolia, Turkey.

PubMed

Arikan, Inci; Metintas, Selma; Kalyoncu, Cemalettin; Colak, Omer; Arikan, Ufuk

2009-08-01

To assess the prevalence and clustering of components of metabolic syndrome (MetS) in semi-rural areas of Central Anatolia, Turkey. This study was conducted between January and August 2008 on a randomly selected sample of participants from semi-rural settlement areas of the Eskisehir province, Central Anatolia, Turkey. The MetS was diagnosed as the presence of 3, or more risk factors according to the National Cholesterol Education Program-Expert Panel Adult Treatment Panel III (NCEP ATP III) criteria. The MetS prevalence was standardized according to age, and logistic regression was used to determine the risk factors affecting prevalence. The study group composed of 2,766 people (40.4% male, 59.6% female). The corrected MetS prevalence according to age was 27.6%, with values of 19.4% in males, and 33.2% in females. The prevalence increased with increasing age in both genders. Groups engaged in heavy physical exercise, and smoking showed decreased odds of having MetS, while MetS risk was lower in men who consumed proper amounts of red meat, fruits, and vegetables. In the MetS group, central obesity risk was higher for women, whereas hypertriglyceridemia risk was higher for men. In the non-MetS group, hypertension, and central obesity risks were higher for women, whereas hypertriglyceridemia risk was higher for men. It was concluded that MetS is a major problem in the Eskisehir province, and it is imperative that changes in lifestyle be made within this population to reduce the risk factors for the condition.

Effects of the Mediterranean Diet before and after Weight Loss on Eating Behavioral Traits in Men with Metabolic Syndrome

PubMed Central

Carbonneau, Élise; Royer, Marie-Michelle; Richard, Caroline; Couture, Patrick; Desroches, Sophie; Lemieux, Simone; Lamarche, Benoît

2017-01-01

The objective of this study was to investigate the impact of the Mediterranean diet (MedDiet) consumed before and after weight loss on eating behavioral traits as measured by the Three-Factor Eating Questionnaire (TFEQ) in men with metabolic syndrome (MetS). In this fixed sequence study, 19 men with MetS (National Cholesterol Education Program-Adult Treatment Panel III (NCEP-ATPIII) criteria), aged between 24 and 62 years, first consumed a five-week standardized North American control diet followed by a five-week MedDiet, both under weight-maintaining controlled-feeding conditions. This was followed by a 20-week caloric restriction weight loss period in free-living conditions, without specific recommendations towards adhering to the principles of the MedDiet. Participants were finally subjected to a final five-week MedDiet phase under isoenergetic controlled-feeding conditions. The MedDiet before weight loss had no impact on eating behavioral traits. Body weight reduction by caloric restriction (−10.2% of initial weight) was associated with increased cognitive restraint (p < 0.0001) and with reduced disinhibition (p = 0.02) and susceptibility to hunger (p = 0.01). Feeding the MedDiet for five weeks under isoenergetic conditions after the weight loss phase had no further impact on eating behavioral traits. Results of this controlled-feeding study suggest that consumption of the MedDiet per se has no effect on eating behavioral traits as measured by TFEQ, unless it is combined with significant weight loss. PMID:28335489

Correlates of the Metabolic Syndrome Among a Sample of Women in the San Juan Metropolitan Area of Puerto Rico

PubMed Central

Ortiz, Ana Patricia; Suárez, Erick; Beauchamp, Giovanna; Romaguera, Josefina; Soto-Salgado, Marievelisse

2010-01-01

Abstract Background The metabolic syndrome is an interaction of risk factors that may lead to cardiovascular disease and type 2 diabetes. Methods Given the need for data in Puerto Rico, this cross-sectional study aimed to determine the association between demographic, lifestyles, and reproductive characteristics and the metabolic syndrome among a sample of women (N = 564) in the San Juan Metropolitan Area. The metabolic syndrome was defined based on the revised National Cholesterol Education Program Adult Treatment Panel III (NCEP ATP III) criteria. Results In multivariate logistic regression models, women aged 40–59 and 60–79 years were 3.03 [95% confidence interval (CI), 1.70, 5.40] and 7.05 (95% CI, 3.69, 13.49) times more likely, respectively, to have the metabolic syndrome as compared to those aged 21–39 years. A dose–response relationship was also observed between body mass index (BMI) and metabolic syndrome. Physical activity reduced the odds for metabolic syndrome [prevalence odds ratios (POR) = 0.64; 95% CI, 0.41, 1.01]; however, this association was marginally significant (P = 0.05). Among reproductive characteristics, only women who had a history of gestational diabetes (GDM) were 2.14 (95% CI, 1.02, 4.51) times more likely to have metabolic syndrome. Conclusions Consistent with previous studies, increased age and BMI, physical inactivity, and GDM are associated with the metabolic syndrome in this population. This information is relevant for the development of preventive interventions for the metabolic syndrome. PMID:20156074

Characteristics, management and attainment of lipid target levels in diabetic and cardiac patients enrolled in Disease Management Program versus those in routine care: LUTZ registry

PubMed Central

2009-01-01

Background Since 2002 the sick funds in Germany have widely implemented disease management programs (DMPs) for patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM) and coronary heart disease (CHD). Little is known about the characteristics, treatment and target attainment lipid levels of these patients enrolled in DMPs compared to patients in routine care (non-DMP). Methods In an open, non-interventional registry (LUTZ) in Germany, 6551 physicians documented 15,211 patients with DM (10,110 in DMP, 5101 in routine care) and 14,222 (6259 in DMP, 7963 in routine care) over a follow-up period of 4 months. They received the NCEP ATP III guidelines as a reminder on lipid level targets. Results While demographic characteristics of DMP patients were similar to routine care patients, the former had higher rates of almost all cardiovascular comorbidities. Patients in DMPs received pharmacological treatment (in almost all drug classes) more often than non-DMP patients (e.g. antiplatelets: in DM 27.0% vs 23.8%; in CHD 63.0% vs. 53.6%). The same applied for educational measures (on life style changes and diet etc.). The rate of target level attainment for low density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) < 100 mg/dl was somewhat higher in DMP patients at inclusion compared to non-DMP patients (DM: 23.9% vs. 21.3%; CHD: 30.6% vs. 23.8%) and increased after 4 months (DM: 38.3% vs. 36.9%; CHD: 49.8% vs. 43.3%). Individual LDL-C target level attainment rates as assessed by the treating physicians were higher (at 4 months in DM: 59.6% vs. 56.5%; CHD: 49.8% vs 43.3%). Mean blood pressure (BP) and HbA1c values were slightly lowered during follow-up, without substantial differences between DMP and non-DMP patients. Conclusion Patients with DM, and (to a greater extent) with CHD in DMPs compared to non-DMP patients in routine care have a higher burden of comorbidities, but also receive more intensive pharmacological treatment and educational measures. The present data support that the substantial additional efforts in DMPs aimed at improving outcomes resulted in quality gains for achieving target LDL-C levels, but not for BP or HbA1c. Longer-term follow-up is needed to substantiate these results. PMID:19653899

Changes in atmospheric circulation between solar maximum and minimum conditions in winter and summer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Jae Nyung

2008-10-01

Statistically significant climate responses to the solar variability are found in Northern Annular Mode (NAM) and in the tropical circulation. This study is based on the statistical analysis of numerical simulations with ModelE version of the chemistry coupled Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) general circulation model (GCM) and National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis. The low frequency large scale variability of the winter and summer circulation is described by the NAM, the leading Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) of geopotential heights. The newly defined seasonal annular modes and its dynamical significance in the stratosphere and troposphere in the GISS ModelE is shown and compared with those in the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. In the stratosphere, the summer NAM obtained from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis as well as from the ModelE simulations has the same sign throughout the northern hemisphere, but shows greater variability at low latitudes. The patterns in both analyses are consistent with the interpretation that low NAM conditions represent an enhancement of the seasonal difference between the summer and the annual averages of geopotential height, temperature and velocity distributions, while the reverse holds for high NAM conditions. Composite analysis of high and low NAM cases in both the model and observation suggests that the summer stratosphere is more "summer-like" when the solar activity is near a maximum. This means that the zonal easterly wind flow is stronger and the temperature is higher than normal. Thus increased irradiance favors a low summer NAM. A quantitative comparison of the anti-correlation between the NAM and the solar forcing is presented in the model and in the observation, both of which show lower/higher NAM index in solar maximum/minimum conditions. The summer NAM in the troposphere obtained from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis has a dipolar zonal structure with maximum variability over the Asian monsoon region. The corresponding EOF in ModelE has a qualitatively similar structure but with less variability in the Asian monsoon region which is displaced eastward of its observed position. In both the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis and the GISS GCM, the negative anomalies associated with the NAM in the Euro-Atlantic and Aleutian island regions are enhanced in the solar minimum conditions, though the results are not statistically significant. The difference of the downward propagation of NAM between solar maximum and solar minimum is shown with the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. For the winter NAM, a much greater fraction of stratospheric circulation perturbations penetrate to the surface in solar maximum conditions than in minimum conditions. This difference is more striking when the zonal wind direction in the tropics is from the west: when equatorial 50 hPa winds are from the west, no stratospheric signals reach the surface under solar minimum conditions, while over 50 percent reach the surface under solar maximum conditions. This work also studies the response of the tropical circulation to the solar forcing in combination with different atmospheric compositions and with different ocean modules. Four model experiments have been designed to investigate the role of solar forcing in the tropical circulation: one with the present day (PD) greenhouse gases and aerosol conditions, one with the preindustrial (PI) conditions, one with the doubled minimum solar forcing, and finally one with the hybrid-isopycnic ocean model (HYCOM). The response patterns in the tropical humidity and in the vertical motion due to solar forcing are season dependent and spatially heterogeneous. The tropical humidity response from the model experiments are compared with the corresponding differences obtained from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis with all years and with non-ENSO years. Both the model and the reanalysis consistently show that the specific humidity is significantly greater in the convective region in solar maximum compared to solar minimum for January and July. The column integrated humidity in all the model experiments with different composition, different solar forcing, and different ocean module, increased with solar forcing in the tropical band over the Atlantic sector in both seasons. The model's humidity response pattern is generally consistent with the paleoclimate records indicating increased precipitation near the equator that decreases at subtropical to middle latitudes with increased solar output. The differences in the zonally averaged vertical velocities indicate that the ascending branch of the Hadley cell is enhanced and shifted northward, and that the descending branch is weakened and shifted northward in the solar MAX simulation in January. The downward branch of the Hadley cell is strengthened in MAX in July. A possible link of climate response in midlatitudes to solar forcing is also presented by showing changes in zonal mean wind, changes in temperature gradient, and changes in E-P flux.

Climate Prediction Center - Reanalysis: Atmospheric Data

Science.gov Websites

files; i.e., wgrib for GRIB-2 files wgrib2mv,wgrib2ms parallel processing with wgrib2 grb1to2.pl perl US government, DOC, NWS, NCEP or CPC. All spelling errors are property of the finder. comments

Maintenance Downtime May 8 - 11, 2015

Atmospheric Science Data Center

2015-05-06

... The ASDC will experience a partial outage to move from old storage to new storage. ANGe ingest will be paused and production processing on ... any inconvenience this may cause.   The following data providers will be impacted: AFWA-MESH16 CloudSat FLASH GHRC NCEP ...

Exploring the association between metabolic syndrome components and polyneuropathy in an obese population

PubMed Central

Callaghan, Brian C.; Xia, Rong; Reynolds, Evan; Banerjee, Mousumi; Rothberg, Amy E.; Burant, Charles F.; Villegas-Umana, Emily; Pop-Busui, Rodica; Feldman, Eva L.

2016-01-01

Importance Past studies revealed an association between the metabolic syndrome and polyneuropathy, but the precise components that drive this association remain unclear. Objective We aimed to determine the prevalence of polyneuropathy stratified by glycemic status in well characterized obese and lean participants. We also investigated the association of specific metabolic syndrome components and polyneuropathy. Design We performed a cross-sectional, observational study in obese participants from a weight management program and lean controls from a research website. The prevalence of neuropathy, stratified by glycemic status, was determined, and a Mantel–Haenszel chi-square test was used to investigate for a trend. Logistic regression was used to model the primary polyneuropathy outcome as a function of the metabolic syndrome components after adjusting for demographic factors. Secondary outcomes included intraepidermal nerve fiber density and nerve conduction study parameters. Participants also completed quantitative sudomotor axon reflex testing, quantitative sensory testing, quality of life (Neuro-QOL), and pain (short form McGill Pain questionnaire) assessments. Setting Tertiary care, weight management program. Participants Obese patients were required to have a body mass index ≥ 35 kg/m^2 or ≥ 32 kg/m^2 if they had one or more comorbidity. Lean controls met no metabolic syndrome criteria (modified NCEP/ATPIII definition). Exposures Metabolic syndrome components (NCEP/ATPIII definition) including glycemic status (Expert Committee on the diagnosis and classification of diabetes mellitus definition). Main Outcome Toronto consensus definition of probable polyneuropathy. Results We enrolled 102 obese participants (44.1% normoglycemia, 30.4% pre-diabetes, and 25.5% diabetes) and 53 lean controls. The polyneuropathy prevalence was 3.8% in lean controls, 11.1% in the obese, normoglycemia group, 29.0%, in the obese, pre-diabetes group, and 34.6% in the obese, diabetes group (p<0.01 for trend). Age (OR=1.09, 95% CI 1.02–1.16), diabetes (OR=4.90, 95% CI 1.06–22.63), and waist circumference (OR=1.24, 95% CI 1.00–1.55) were significantly associated with neuropathy in multivariable models. Pre-diabetes (OR=3.82, 95% CI 0.95–15.41) approached, but did not reach, statistical significance. Conclusions and Relevance The polyneuropathy prevalence is high in an obese population even in those with normoglycemia. Diabetes, pre-diabetes, and obesity are the likely metabolic drivers of this neuropathy. PMID:27802497

A Comparison of HWRF, ARW and NMM Models in Hurricane Katrina (2005) Simulation

PubMed Central

Dodla, Venkata B.; Desamsetti, Srinivas; Yerramilli, Anjaneyulu

2011-01-01

The life cycle of Hurricane Katrina (2005) was simulated using three different modeling systems of Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale model. These are, HWRF (Hurricane WRF) designed specifically for hurricane studies and WRF model with two different dynamic cores as the Advanced Research WRF (ARW) model and the Non-hydrostatic Mesoscale Model (NMM). The WRF model was developed and sourced from National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), incorporating the advances in atmospheric simulation system suitable for a broad range of applications. The HWRF modeling system was developed at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) based on the NMM dynamic core and the physical parameterization schemes specially designed for tropics. A case study of Hurricane Katrina was chosen as it is one of the intense hurricanes that caused severe destruction along the Gulf Coast from central Florida to Texas. ARW, NMM and HWRF models were designed to have two-way interactive nested domains with 27 and 9 km resolutions. The three different models used in this study were integrated for three days starting from 0000 UTC of 27 August 2005 to capture the landfall of hurricane Katrina on 29 August. The initial and time varying lateral boundary conditions were taken from NCEP global FNL (final analysis) data available at 1 degree resolution for ARW and NMM models and from NCEP GFS data at 0.5 degree resolution for HWRF model. The results show that the models simulated the intensification of Hurricane Katrina and the landfall on 29 August 2005 agreeing with the observations. Results from these experiments highlight the superior performance of HWRF model over ARW and NMM models in predicting the track and intensification of Hurricane Katrina. PMID:21776239

A comparison of HWRF, ARW and NMM models in Hurricane Katrina (2005) simulation.

PubMed

Dodla, Venkata B; Desamsetti, Srinivas; Yerramilli, Anjaneyulu

2011-06-01

The life cycle of Hurricane Katrina (2005) was simulated using three different modeling systems of Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale model. These are, HWRF (Hurricane WRF) designed specifically for hurricane studies and WRF model with two different dynamic cores as the Advanced Research WRF (ARW) model and the Non-hydrostatic Mesoscale Model (NMM). The WRF model was developed and sourced from National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), incorporating the advances in atmospheric simulation system suitable for a broad range of applications. The HWRF modeling system was developed at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) based on the NMM dynamic core and the physical parameterization schemes specially designed for tropics. A case study of Hurricane Katrina was chosen as it is one of the intense hurricanes that caused severe destruction along the Gulf Coast from central Florida to Texas. ARW, NMM and HWRF models were designed to have two-way interactive nested domains with 27 and 9 km resolutions. The three different models used in this study were integrated for three days starting from 0000 UTC of 27 August 2005 to capture the landfall of hurricane Katrina on 29 August. The initial and time varying lateral boundary conditions were taken from NCEP global FNL (final analysis) data available at 1 degree resolution for ARW and NMM models and from NCEP GFS data at 0.5 degree resolution for HWRF model. The results show that the models simulated the intensification of Hurricane Katrina and the landfall on 29 August 2005 agreeing with the observations. Results from these experiments highlight the superior performance of HWRF model over ARW and NMM models in predicting the track and intensification of Hurricane Katrina.

Air-sea heat flux climatologies in the Mediterranean Sea: Surface energy balance and its consistency with ocean heat storage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Xiangzhou; Yu, Lisan

2017-05-01

This study provides an analysis of the Mediterranean Sea surface energy budget using nine surface heat flux climatologies. The ensemble mean estimation shows that the net downward shortwave radiation (192 ± 19 W m-2) is balanced by latent heat flux (-98 ± 10 W m-2), followed by net longwave radiation (-78 ± 13 W m-2) and sensible heat flux (-13 ± 4 W m-2). The resulting net heat budget (Qnet) is 2 ± 12 W m-2 into the ocean, which appears to be warm biased. The annual-mean Qnet should be -5.6 ± 1.6 W m-2 when estimated from the observed net transport through the Strait of Gibraltar. To diagnose the uncertainty in nine Qnet climatologies, we constructed Qnet from the heat budget equation by using historic hydrological observations to determine the heat content changes and advective heat flux. We also used the Qnet from a data-assimilated global ocean state estimation as an additional reference. By comparing with the two reference Qnet estimates, we found that seven products (NCEP 1, NCEP 2, CFSR, ERA-Interim, MERRA, NOCSv2.0, and OAFlux+ISCCP) overestimate Qnet, with magnitude ranging from 6 to 27 W m-2, while two products underestimate Qnet by -6 W m-2 (JRA55) and -14 W m-2 (CORE.2). Together with the previous warm pool work of Song and Yu (2013), we show that CFSR, MERRA, NOCSv2.0, and OAFlux+ISCCP are warm-biased not only in the western Pacific warm pool but also in the Mediterranean Sea, while CORE.2 is cold-biased in both regions. The NCEP 1, 2, and ERA-Interim are cold-biased over the warm pool but warm-biased in the Mediterranean Sea.

Sea surface temperature predictions using a multi-ocean analysis ensemble scheme

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Ying; Zhu, Jieshun; Li, Zhongxian; Chen, Haishan; Zeng, Gang

2017-08-01

This study examined the global sea surface temperature (SST) predictions by a so-called multiple-ocean analysis ensemble (MAE) initialization method which was applied in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2). Different from most operational climate prediction practices which are initialized by a specific ocean analysis system, the MAE method is based on multiple ocean analyses. In the paper, the MAE method was first justified by analyzing the ocean temperature variability in four ocean analyses which all are/were applied for operational climate predictions either at the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts or at NCEP. It was found that these systems exhibit substantial uncertainties in estimating the ocean states, especially at the deep layers. Further, a set of MAE hindcasts was conducted based on the four ocean analyses with CFSv2, starting from each April during 1982-2007. The MAE hindcasts were verified against a subset of hindcasts from the NCEP CFS Reanalysis and Reforecast (CFSRR) Project. Comparisons suggested that MAE shows better SST predictions than CFSRR over most regions where ocean dynamics plays a vital role in SST evolutions, such as the El Niño and Atlantic Niño regions. Furthermore, significant improvements were also found in summer precipitation predictions over the equatorial eastern Pacific and Atlantic oceans, for which the local SST prediction improvements should be responsible. The prediction improvements by MAE imply a problem for most current climate predictions which are based on a specific ocean analysis system. That is, their predictions would drift towards states biased by errors inherent in their ocean initialization system, and thus have large prediction errors. In contrast, MAE arguably has an advantage by sampling such structural uncertainties, and could efficiently cancel these errors out in their predictions.

New Radiosonde Temperature Bias Adjustments for Potential NWP Applications Based on GPS RO Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, B.; Reale, A.; Ballish, B.; Seidel, D. J.

2014-12-01

Conventional radiosonde observations (RAOBs), along with satellite and other in situ data, are assimilated in numerical weather prediction (NWP) models to generate a forecast. Radiosonde temperature observations, however, have solar and thermal radiation induced biases (typically a warm daytime bias from sunlight heating the sensor and a cold bias at night as the sensor emits longwave radiation). Radiation corrections made at stations based on algorithms provided by radiosonde manufacturers or national meteorological agencies may not be adequate, so biases remain. To adjust these biases, NWP centers may make additional adjustments to radiosonde data. However, the radiation correction (RADCOR) schemes used in the NOAA NCEP data assimilation and forecasting system is outdated and does not cover several widely-used contemporary radiosonde types. This study focuses on work whose objective is to improve these corrections and test their impacts on the NWP forecasting and analysis. GPS Radio Occultation (RO) dry temperature (Tdry) is considered to be highly accurate in the upper troposphere and low stratosphere where atmospheric water vapor is negligible. This study uses GPS RO Tdry from the Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate (COSMIC) as the reference to quantify the radiation induced RAOB temperature errors by analyzing ~ 3-yr collocated RAOB and COSMIC GPS RO data compile by the NOAA Products Validation System (NPROVS). The new radiation adjustments are developed for different solar angle categories and for all common sonde types flown in the WMO global operational upper air network. Results for global and several commonly used sondes are presented in the context of NCEP Global Forecast System observation-minus-background analysis, indicating projected impacts in reducing forecast error. Dedicated NWP impact studies to quantify the impact of the new RADCOR schemes on the NCEP analyses and forecast are under consideration.

FGOALS-s2 simulation of upper-level jet streams over East Asia: Mean state bias and synoptic-scale transient eddy activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Fengfei; Zhou, Tianjun

2013-05-01

Upper-level jet streams over East Asia simulated by the LASG/IAP coupled climate system model FGOALS-s2 were assessed, and the mean state bias explained in terms of synoptic-scale transient eddy activity (STEA). The results showed that the spatial distribution of the seasonal mean jet stream was reproduced well by the model, except that following a weaker meridional temperature gradient (MTG), the intensity of the jet stream was weaker than in National Centers for Environment Prediction (NCEP)/Department of Energy Atmospheric Model Inter-comparison Project II reanalysis data (NCEP2). Based on daily mean data, the jet core number was counted to identify the geographical border between the East Asian Subtropical Jet (EASJ) and the East Asian Polar-front Jet (EAPJ). The border is located over the Tibetan Plateau according to NCEP2 data, but was not evident in FGOALS-s2 simulations. The seasonal cycles of the jet streams were found to be reasonably reproduced, except that they shifted northward relative to reanalysis data in boreal summer owing to the northward shift of negative MTGs. To identify the reasons for mean state bias, the dynamical and thermal forcings of STEA on mean flow were examined with a focus on boreal winter. The dynamical and thermal forcings were estimated by extended Eliassen-Palm flux ( E) and transient heat flux, respectively. The results showed that the failure to reproduce the tripolar-pattern of the divergence of E over the jet regions led to an unsuccessful separation of the EASJ and EAPJ, while dynamical forcing contributed less to the weaker EASJ. In contrast, the weaker transient heat flux partly explained the weaker EASJ over the ocean.

Structure of the tropical lower stratosphere as revealed by three reanalysis data sets

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pawson, S.; Fiorino, M.

1996-05-01

While the skill of climate simulation models has advanced over the last decade, mainly through improvements in modeling, further progress will depend on the availability and the quality of comprehensive validation data sets covering long time periods. A new source of such validation data is atmospheric {open_quotes}reanalysis{close_quotes} where a fixed, state-of-the-art global atmospheric model/data assimilation system is run through archived and recovered observations to produce a consistent set of atmospheric analyses. Although reanalysis will be free of non-physical variability caused by changes in the models and/or the assimilation procedure, it is necessary to assess its quality. A region for stringentmore » testing of the quality of reanalysis is the tropical lower stratosphere. This portion of the atmosphere is sparse in observations but displays the prominent quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and an annual cycle, neither of which is fully understood, but which are likely coupled dynamically. We first consider the performance of three reanalyses, from NCEP/NCAR, NASA and ECMWF, against rawinsonde data in depicting the QBO and then examine the structure of the tropical lower stratosphere in NCEP and ECMWF data sets in detail. While the annual cycle and the QBO in wind and temperature are quite successfully represented, the mean meridional circulations in NCEP and ECMWF data sets contain unusual features which may be due to the assimilation process rather than being physically based. Further, the models capture the long-term temperature fluctuations associated with volcanic eruptions, even though the physical mechanisms are not included, thus implying that the model does not mask prominent stratospheric signals in the observational data. We conclude that reanalysis offers a unique opportunity to better understand the dynamics of QBO and can be applied to climate model validation.« less

Prediction skill of rainstorm events over India in the TIGGE weather prediction models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karuna Sagar, S.; Rajeevan, M.; Vijaya Bhaskara Rao, S.; Mitra, A. K.

2017-12-01

Extreme rainfall events pose a serious threat of leading to severe floods in many countries worldwide. Therefore, advance prediction of its occurrence and spatial distribution is very essential. In this paper, an analysis has been made to assess the skill of numerical weather prediction models in predicting rainstorms over India. Using gridded daily rainfall data set and objective criteria, 15 rainstorms were identified during the monsoon season (June to September). The analysis was made using three TIGGE (THe Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX) Interactive Grand Global Ensemble) models. The models considered are the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and the UK Met Office (UKMO). Verification of the TIGGE models for 43 observed rainstorm days from 15 rainstorm events has been made for the period 2007-2015. The comparison reveals that rainstorm events are predictable up to 5 days in advance, however with a bias in spatial distribution and intensity. The statistical parameters like mean error (ME) or Bias, root mean square error (RMSE) and correlation coefficient (CC) have been computed over the rainstorm region using the multi-model ensemble (MME) mean. The study reveals that the spread is large in ECMWF and UKMO followed by the NCEP model. Though the ensemble spread is quite small in NCEP, the ensemble member averages are not well predicted. The rank histograms suggest that the forecasts are under prediction. The modified Contiguous Rain Area (CRA) technique was used to verify the spatial as well as the quantitative skill of the TIGGE models. Overall, the contribution from the displacement and pattern errors to the total RMSE is found to be more in magnitude. The volume error increases from 24 hr forecast to 48 hr forecast in all the three models.

Spatiotemporal Evaluation of Reanalysis and In-situ Surface Air Temperature over Ethiopia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tesfaye, T.

2017-12-01

Tewodros Woldemariam Tesfaye*1, C.T. Dhanya 2,and A.K. Gosain3 1Research Scholar, Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Delhi, New Delhi-110016, India 2Assistant Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Delhi, New Delhi-110016, India 3 Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Delhi, New Delhi-110016, India, *e-mail: tewodros2002@gmail.com Abstract: Water resources management and modelling studies are often constrained by the scarcity of observed data, especially of the two major variables i.e., precipitation and temperature. Modellers, hence, rely on reanalysis datasets as a substitute; though its performance heavily vary depending on the data availability and regional characteristics. The present study aims at examining the ability of frequently used reanalysis datasets in capturing the spatiotemporal characteristics of maximum and minimum surface temperatures over Ethiopia and to highlight the biases, if any, in these over Ethiopian region. We considered ERA-Interim, NCEP 2, MERRA and CFSR reanalysis datasets and compared these with temperature observations from 15 synoptic stations spread over Ethiopia. In addition to the long term averages and annual cycle, a critical comparison of various extreme indices such as diurnal temperature range, warm days, warm nights, cool days, cool nights, summer days and tropical nights are also undertaken. Our results indicate that, the performance of CFSR followed by NCEP 2 is better in capturing majority of the aspects. ERA-Interim suffers a huge additive bias in the simulation of various aspects of minimum temperature in all the stations considered; while its performance is better for maximum temperature. The inferior performance of ERA-Interim is noted to be only because of the difficulty in simulating minimum temperature. Key words: ERA Interim; NCEP Reanalysis; MERRA; CFSR; Diurnal temperature range; reanalysis performance.

Benefits of Sharing Information: Supermodel Ensemble and Applications in South America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dias, P. L.

2006-05-01

A model intercomparison program involving a large number of academic and operational institutions has been implemented in South America since 2003, motivated by the SALLJEX Intercomparison Program in 2003 (a research program focused on the identification of the role of the Andes low level jet moisture transport from the Amazon to the Plata basin) and the WMO/THORPEX (www.wmo.int/thorpex) goals to improve predictability through the proper combination of numerical weather forecasts. This program also explores the potential predictability associated with the combination of a large number of possible scenarios in the time scale of a few days to up to 15 days. Five academic institutions and five operational forecasting centers in several countries in South America, 1 academic institution in the USA, and the main global forecasting centers (NCEP, UKMO, ECMWF) agreed to provide numerical products based on operational and experimental models. The metric for model validation is concentrated on the fit of the forecast to surface observations. Meteorological data from airports, synoptic stations operated by national weather services, automatic data platforms maintained by different institutions, the PIRATA buoys etc are all collected through LDM/NCAR or direct transmission. Approximately 40 models outputs are available on a daily basis, twice a day. A simple procedure based on data assimilation principles was quite successful in combining the available forecasts in order to produce temperature, dew point, wind, pressure and precipitation forecasts at station points in S. America. The procedure is based on removing each model bias at the observational point and a weighted average based on the mean square error of the forecasts. The base period for estimating the bias and mean square error is of the order of 15 to 30 days. Products of the intercomparison model program and the optimal statistical combination of the available forecasts are public and available in real time (www.master.iag.usp.br/). Monitoring of the use of the products reveal a growing trend in the last year (reaching about 10.000 accesses per day in recent months). The intercomparison program provides a rich data set for educational products (real time use in Synoptic Meteorology and Numerical Weather Forecasting lectures), operational weather forecasts in national or regional weather centers and for research purposes. During the first phase of the program it was difficult to convince potential participants to share the information in the public homepage. However, as the system evolved, more and more institutions became associated with the program. The general opinion of the participants is that the system provides an unified metric for evaluation, a forum for discussion of the physical origin of the model forecast differences and therefore improvement of the quality of the numerical guidance.

Quantifying the Impact of Mountain Pine Beetle Disturbances on Forest Carbon Pools and Fluxes in the Western US using the NCAR Community Land Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Edburg, S. L.; Hicke, J. A.; Lawrence, D. M.; Thornton, P. E.

2009-12-01

Forest disturbances, such as fire, insects, and land-use change, significantly alter carbon budgets by changing carbon pools and fluxes. The mountain pine beetle (MPB) kills millions of hectares of trees in the western US, similar to the area killed by fire. Mountain pine beetles kill host trees by consuming the inner bark tissue, and require host tree death for reproduction. Despite being a significant disturbance to forested ecosystems, insects such as MPB are typically not represented in biogeochemical models, thus little is known about their impact on the carbon cycle. We investigate the role of past MPB outbreaks on carbon cycling in the western US using the NCAR Community Land Model with Carbon and Nitrogen cycles (CLM-CN). CLM-CN serves as the land model to the Community Climate System Model (CCSM), providing exchanges of energy, momentum, water, carbon, and nitrogen between the land and atmosphere. We run CLM-CN over the western US extending to eastern Colorado with a spatial resolution of 0.5° and a half hour time step. The model is first spun-up with repeated NCEP forcing (1948-1972) until carbon stocks and fluxes reach equilibrium (~ 3000 years), and then run from 1850 to 2004 with NCEP forcing and a dynamic plant functional type (PFT) database. Carbon stocks from this simulation are compared with stocks from the Forest Inventory Analysis (FIA) program. We prescribe MPB mortality area, once per year, in CLM-CN using USFS Aerial Detection Surveys (ADS) from the last few decades. We simulate carbon impacts of tree mortality by MPB within a model grid cell by moving carbon from live vegetative pools (leaf, stem, and roots) to dead pools (woody debris, litter, and dead roots). We compare carbon pools and fluxes for two simulations, one without MPB outbreaks and one with MPB outbreaks.

Projected changes to short- and long-duration precipitation extremes over the Canadian Prairie Provinces

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Masud, M. B.; Khaliq, M. N.; Wheater, H. S.

2017-09-01

The effects of climate change on April-October short- and long-duration precipitation extremes over the Canadian Prairie Provinces were evaluated using a multi-Regional Climate Model (RCM) ensemble available through the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program. Simulations considered include those performed with six RCMs driven by the National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis II product for the 1981-2000 period and those driven by four Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) for the current 1971-2000 and future 2041-2070 periods (i.e. a total of 11 current-to-future period simulation pairs). A regional frequency analysis approach was used to develop 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, and 50-year return values of precipitation extremes from NCEP and AOGCM-driven current and future period simulations that respectively were used to study the performance of RCMs and projected changes for selected return values at regional, grid-cell and local scales. Performance errors due to internal dynamics and physics of RCMs studied for the 1981-2000 period reveal considerable variation in the performance of the RCMs. However, the performance errors were found to be much smaller for RCM ensemble averages than for individual RCMs. Projected changes in future climate to selected regional return values of short-duration (e.g. 15- and 30-min) precipitation extremes and for longer return periods (e.g. 50-year) were found to be mostly larger than those to the longer duration (e.g. 24- and 48-h) extremes and short return periods (e.g. 2-year). Overall, projected changes in precipitation extremes were larger for southeastern regions followed by southern and northern regions and smaller for southwestern and western regions of the study area. The changes to return values were also found to be statistically significant for the majority of the RCM-AOGCM simulation pairs. These projections might be useful as a key input for the future planning of urban drainage infrastructure and development of strategic climate change adaptation measures.

National Centers for Environmental Prediction

Science.gov Websites

ENSEMBLE PRODUCTS & DATA SOURCES Probabilistic Forecasts of Quantitative Precipitation from the NCEP Predictability Research with Indian Monsoon Examples - PDF - 28 Mar 2005 North American Ensemble Forecast System QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION *PQPF* In these charts, the probability that 24-hour precipitation amounts over a

Seasonal prediction skill of winter temperature over North India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tiwari, P. R.; Kar, S. C.; Mohanty, U. C.; Dey, S.; Kumari, S.; Sinha, P.

2016-04-01

The climatology, amplitude error, phase error, and mean square skill score (MSSS) of temperature predictions from five different state-of-the-art general circulation models (GCMs) have been examined for the winter (December-January-February) seasons over North India. In this region, temperature variability affects the phenological development processes of wheat crops and the grain yield. The GCM forecasts of temperature for a whole season issued in November from various organizations are compared with observed gridded temperature data obtained from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) for the period 1982-2009. The MSSS indicates that the models have skills of varying degrees. Predictions of maximum and minimum temperature obtained from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) climate forecast system model (NCEP_CFSv2) are compared with station level observations from the Snow and Avalanche Study Establishment (SASE). It has been found that when the model temperatures are corrected to account the bias in the model and actual orography, the predictions are able to delineate the observed trend compared to the trend without orography correction.

The stratospheric QBO signal in the NCEP reanalysis, 1948-2001

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ribera, P.; Gallego, D.; Pena-Ortiz, C.; Gimeno, L.; Garcia, R.; Hernandez, E.; Calvo, N.

2003-04-01

The spatiotemporal evolution of the zonal wind in the stratosphere is analyzed based on the use of the NCEP reanalysis dataset (1948-2001). MTM-SVD, a frequency-domain analysis method, is applied to isolate significant spatially-coherent variability with narrowband, oscillatory character. A quasibiennial oscillation is detected as the most intense coherent signal in the whole mid and high stratosphere, being the signal less intense in the lower levels, closer to the troposphere. There is a clear downward propagation of the signal with time over low latitudes, from 10 to 100 hPa, that is not evident over mid and high latitudes. A different behavior of the signal is detected over the Northern and the Southern Hemisphere. In the NH an anomaly in the zonal wind field, in phase with the equatorial signal, is detected to run around the whole hemisphere at 60º, and two regions in subtropical latitudes show wind anomalies with their sing opposed to that of the equator. In the SH no signal is detected in extratropical areas.

Polar motion excitation analysis due to global continental water redistribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernandez, L.; Schuh, H.

2006-10-01

We present the results obtained when studying the hydrological excitation of the Earth‘s wobble due to global redistribution of continental water storage. This work was performed in two steps. First, we computed the hydrological angular momentum (HAM) time series based on the global hydrological model LaD (Land Dynamics model) for the period 1980 till 2004. Then, we compared the effectiveness of this excitation by analysing the residuals of the geodetic time series after removing atmospheric and oceanic contributions with the respective hydrological ones. The emphasis was put on low frequency variations. We also present a comparison of HAM time series from LaD with respect to that one from a global model based on the assimilated soil moisture and snow accumulation data from NCEP/NCAR (The National Center for Environmental Prediction/The National Center for Atmospheric Research) reanalysis. Finally, we evaluate the performance of LaD model in closing the polar motion budget at seasonal periods in comparison with the NCEP and the Land Data Assimilation System (LDAS) models.

National Centers for Environmental Prediction

Science.gov Websites

Modeling Mesoscale Modeling Marine Modeling and Analysis Teams Climate Data Assimilation Ensembles and Post streamline the interaction of analysis, forecast, and post-processing systems within NCEP. The NEMS Force, and will eventually provide support to the community through the Developmental Test Center (DTC

EMISSIONS PROCESSING FOR THE ETA/ CMAQ AIR QUALITY FORECAST SYSTEM

EPA Science Inventory

NOAA and EPA have created an Air Quality Forecast (AQF) system. This AQF system links an adaptation of the EPA's Community Multiscale Air Quality Model with the 12 kilometer ETA model running operationally at NOAA's National Center for Environmental Predication (NCEP). One of the...

78 FR 16471 - National Cybersecurity Center of Excellence (NCCoE) Secure Exchange of Electronic Health...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-03-15

...-02] National Cybersecurity Center of Excellence (NCCoE) Secure Exchange of Electronic Health...) National Cybersecurity Center of Excellence (NCCoE) invited organizations to provide products and technical.... companies to enter into ``National Cybersecurity Excellence Partnerships'' (NCEPs) in furtherance of the...

Climate Prediction Center

Science.gov Websites

Climate Stratosphere Pacific Islands International Desks Climate.gov Climate Test Bed (CTB) JAWF USAID FEWS-NET NWS / NCEP Aviation Weather Center Climate Prediction Center Environmental Modeling Center non-operational server hosts the redesigned web pages developed, thus far, as part of the Climate

On the predictability of the interannual behaviour of the Madden-Julian oscillation and its relationship with El Nino

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sperber, K.R., LLNL

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the dominant mode of tropical variability at intraseasonal timescales. It displays substantial interannual variability in intensity which may have important implications for the predictability of the coupled system. The reasons for this interannual variability are not understood. The aim of this paper is to investigate whether the interannual behavior of the MJO is related to tropical sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, particularly El Nino, and hence whether it is predictable. The interannual behavior of the MJO has been diagnosed initially in the 40-year NCEP/ NCAR Reanalysis. The results suggest that prior to the mid-1970s themore » activity of the MJO was consistently lower than during the latter part of the record. This may be related to either inadequacies in the data coverage, particularly over the tropical Indian Ocean prior to the introduction of satellite observations, or to the real effects of a decadal timescale warming in the tropical SSTs. The teleconnection patterns between interannual variations in MJO activity and SST show only a weak, barely significant, influence of El Nino in which the MJO is more active during the cold phase. As well as the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis, a 4-member ensemble of 45 year integrations with the Hadley Centre climate model (HadAM2a), forced by observed SSTs for 1949-93, has been used to investigate the relationship between MJO activity and SST. HadAM2a is known to give a reasonable simulation of the MJO and the extended record provided by this ensemble of integrations allows a more robust investigation of the predictability of MJO activity than was possible with the 40-year NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis. The results have shown that, for the uncoupled system, with the atmosphere being driven by imposed SSTS, there is no reproducibility for the activity of the MJO from year to year. The interannual behavior of the MJO is not controlled by the phase of El Nino and would appear to be chaotic in character. However, the model results have confirmed the low frequency, decadal timescale variability of MJO activity seen in the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis. The activity of the MJO is consistently lower in all realizations prior to the mid 1970s, suggesting that the MJO may become more active as tropical SSTs become warmer. This result may have implications for the effects of global warming on the coupled tropical atmosphere-ocean system.« less

National Centers for Environmental Prediction

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PREMAQ: A NEW PRE-PROCESSOR TO CMAQ FOR AIR-QUALITY FORECASTING

EPA Science Inventory

A new pre-processor to CMAQ (PREMAQ) has been developed as part of the national air-quality forecasting system. PREMAQ combines the functionality of MCIP and parts of SMOKE in a single real-time processor. PREMAQ was specifically designed to link NCEP's Eta model with CMAQ, and...

THE EMISSION PROCESSING SYSTEM FOR THE ETA/CMAQ AIR QUALITY FORECAST SYSTEM

EPA Science Inventory

NOAA and EPA have created an Air Quality Forecast (AQF) system. This AQF system links an adaptation of the EPA's Community Multiscale Air Quality Model with the 12 kilometer ETA model running operationally at NOAA's National Center for Environmental Predication (NCEP). One of th...

NCEP SST Analysis

Science.gov Websites

Branches Global Climate & Weather Modeling Mesoscale Modeling Marine Modeling and Analysis Contact EMC , state and local government Web resources and services. Real-time, global, sea surface temperature (RTG_SST_HR) analysis For a regional map, click the desired area in the global SST analysis and anomaly maps

ASSESSMENT OF ETA-CMAQ FORECASTS OF PARTICULATE MATTER DISTRIBUTIONS THROUGH COMPARISONS WITH SURFACE NETWORK AND SPECIALIZED MEASUREMENTS

EPA Science Inventory

An air-quality forecasting (AQF) system based on the National Weather Service (NWS) National Centers for Environmental Prediction's (NCEP's) Eta model and the U.S. EPA's Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) Modeling System is used to simulate the distributions of tropospheric ...

NOAA Weather Wire Service

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& Imagery; includes NWS alerts and warnings No 6 Wireless Emergency Alerts (WEA) Mobile Phone Alerts & Warnings only No 7 Interactive NWS (iNWS) - NOTE 1 https://inws.ncep.noaa.gov/ Mobile Phone $$$$) Internet/ Mobile Phone Alerts and Warnings No 15 County or Local Emergency Management Telephone alert

National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)

Science.gov Websites

Tropical Marine Fire Weather Forecast Maps Unified Surface Analysis Climate Climate Prediction Climate forecasts of hazardous flight conditions at all levels within domestic and international air space. Climate Prediction Center monitors and forecasts short-term climate fluctuations and provides information on the

A COMPARATIVE STUDY ON SPECTRAL ENERGETICS BETWEEN THE NCEP reanalysisII in current climate AND MODEL ECHAM5 in future scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aranha, A. F.; Veiga, J. P.

2013-12-01

Saltzman (1957) starting Lorenz Cycle (1955) derived a set of equations that show the energy contained in the basic state and the disturbed atmosphere, decomposing in various fields disturbance wave type, so as to quantify and analyze the energy of these disorders according to their number or wavelength. Based on the methodology Saltzman, this paper aims a comparative study between the energy of the disturbed state between the NCEP reanalysis-II for the current weather conditions and model ECHAM5 scenarios for future conditions of increased concentration of greenhouse gases (RCP26, RCP45 and RCP85), considering the terms of the generation of available potential energy to nth wave due to diabatic heating, represented by (Gn), the potential energy of nth wave (Pn) and kinetic energy of nth wave (Kn), as well as the conversion of energy between kinetic energy and potential energy nth wave of nth wave, given by (Cn). Two data sets were used in the calculation of the aforementioned terms. For the data set of NCEP and ECHAM5 were used variables, temperature (T), orthogonal wind components (u, v, w) and geopotential height (L), considering daily shared values on a regular grid with spatial resolutions of 2,5 x 2.5 and 1.875 x 1.875 graus, distributed on 12 and 15 levels of pressure (1000.0, 925.0, 850.0, 700.0, 600.0, 500.0, 400.0, 300.0, 250.0, 200.0, 150.0, 100.0 hPa), (1000.0, 850.0, 700.0, 500.0, 250.0, 150.0, 100.0, 70.0, 50.0, 30.0, 10.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.3, 0.1 hPa) for the period of 1979-1999 and 2090-2100, respectively. The results show that most of the kinetic energy of disturbance to nth waves is concentrated in the first 15 wave numbers, both for the weather-NCEP II as to ECHAM5, having more significant increase in the profile and having a RCP85 energy cascade. This increase in kinetic energy was expected due to the increased energy in the system. For Pn, increasing the potential energy is also expected in view of the increased diabatic heating, but the energy jump is large spectrum in the range of 1 a 5, growth or accumulation of energy is visible in the figure wave, almost double the energy accumulated by the wave number 2, a derivative obeying the strong energy in the wave spectrum. We can conclude that the energy contained in a nonlinear way on the biggest waves are not shared aplenty. According to the results, the term conversion in Kn Pn, represented by Cn, reveals important characteristics in the energy spectrum. This we note that Pn feeds both the planetary waves and intermediate waves as synoptic scale. However, the production of Kn from Pn is added to the first wave specifically. It is also observed that Cn does not show large variations along the spectral profile. It is noteworthy that the energy conversions of RCP's are much smaller than the energy conversions NCEP-II, indicating that when there are increased concentrations of greenhouse gases is increasing Gen. therefore increased Pn and fall in Cn. Negative values of Cn are likely to occur, which would represent the conversion of kinetic energy into potential energy of the waves of the basic state.

Evidence for an earlier greenhouse cooling effect in the stratosphere before the 1980s over the Northern Hemisphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zerefos, C. S.; Tourpali, K.; Zanis, P.; Eleftheratos, K.; Repapis, C.; Goodman, A.; Wuebbles, D.; Isaksen, I. S. A.; Luterbacher, J.

2014-01-01

This study provides a new look at the observed and calculated long-term temperature changes since 1958 for the region extending from the lower troposphere up to the lower stratosphere of the Northern Hemisphere. The analysis is mainly based on monthly layer mean temperatures derived from geopotential height thicknesses between specific pressure levels. Layer mean temperatures from thickness improve homogeneity in both space and time and reduce uncertainties in the trend analysis. Datasets used include the NCEP/NCAR I reanalysis, the Free University of Berlin (FU-Berlin) and the RICH radiosonde datasets as well as historical simulations with the CESM1-WACCM global model participating in CMIP5. After removing the natural variability with an autoregressive multiple regression model our analysis shows that the time interval of our study 1958-2011 can be divided in two distinct sub-periods of long term temperature variability and trends; before and after 1980s. By calculating trends for the summer time to reduce interannual variability, the two periods are as follows. From 1958 until 1979, non-significant trends or slight cooling trends prevail in the lower troposphere (0.06 ± 0.06 °C decade-1 for NCEP and -0.12 ± 0.06 °C decade-1 for RICH). The second period from 1980 to the end of the records shows significant warming trends (0.25 ± 0.05 °C decade-1 for both NCEP and RICH). Above the tropopause a persistent cooling trend is clearly seen in the lower stratosphere both in the pre-1980s period (-0.58 ± 0.17 °C decade-1 for NCEP, -0.30 ± 0.16 °C decade-1 for RICH and -0.48 ± 0.20 °C decade-1 for FU-Berlin) and the post-1980s period (-0.79 ± 0.18 °C decade-1 for NCEP, -0.66 ± 0.16 °C decade-1 for RICH and -0.82 ± 0.19 °C decade-1 for FU-Berlin). The cooling in the lower stratosphere is a persistent feature from the tropics up to 60 north for all months. At polar latitudes competing dynamical and radiative processes are reducing the statistical significance of these trends. Model results are in line with re-analysis and the observations, indicating a persistent cooling in the lower stratosphere during summer before and after the 1980s by -0.33 °C decade-1; a feature that is also seen throughout the year. However, the lower stratosphere modelled trends are generally lower than re-analysis and the observations. The contrasting effects of ozone depletion at polar latitudes in winter/spring and the anticipated strengthening of the Brewer Dobson circulation from man-made global warming at polar latitudes are discussed. Our results provide additional evidence for an early greenhouse cooling signal in the lower stratosphere before the 1980s, which it appears well in advance relative to the tropospheric greenhouse warming signal. Hence it may be postulated that the stratosphere could have provided an early warning of man-made climate change. The suitability for early warning signals in the stratosphere relative to the troposphere is supported by the fact that the stratosphere is less sensitive to changes due to cloudiness, humidity and man-made aerosols. Our analysis also indicates that the relative contribution of the lower stratosphere vs. the upper troposphere low frequency variability is important for understanding the added value of the long term tropopause variability related to human induced global warming.

Gender differences in prevalence of the metabolic syndrome in Gulf Cooperation Council Countries: a systematic review.

PubMed

Mabry, R M; Reeves, M M; Eakin, E G; Owen, N

2010-05-01

To systematically review studies documenting the prevalence of the metabolic syndrome among men and women in Member States of the Gulf Cooperative Council (GCC; Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates)-countries in which obesity, Type 2 diabetes and related metabolic and cardiovascular diseases are highly prevalent. A search was conducted on PubMed and CINAHL using the term 'metabolic syndrome' and the country name of each GCC Member State. The search was limited to studies published in the English language. The metabolic syndrome was defined according to the Third Adult Treatment Panel (ATPIII) of the National Cholesterol Education Program (NCEP) and/or International Diabetes Federation (IDF) definitions. The methodological quality of each study was evaluated based on four criteria: a national-level population sample; equal gender representation; robustness of the sample size; an explicit sampling methodology. PubMed, CINAHL and reference list searches identified nine relevant studies. Only four were considered high quality and found that, for men, the prevalence of the metabolic syndrome ranged from 20.7% to 37.2% (ATPIII definition) and from 29.6% to 36.2% (IDF definition); and, for women, from 32.1% to 42.7% (ATPIII definition) and from 36.1% to 45.9% (IDF definition). Overall, the prevalence of the metabolic syndrome in the GCC states is some 10-15% higher than in most developed countries, with generally higher prevalence rates for women. Preventive strategies will require identifying socio-demographic and environmental correlates (particularly those influencing women) and addressing modifiable risk behaviours, including lack of physical activity, prolonged sitting time and dietary intake.

A gender-stratified comparative analysis of various definitions of metabolic syndrome and cardiovascular risk in a multiethnic U.S. population.

PubMed

Hari, Pawan; Nerusu, Kamalakar; Veeranna, Vikas; Sudhakar, Rajeev; Zalawadiya, Sandip; Ramesh, Krithi; Afonso, Luis

2012-02-01

We sought to evaluate the ability of various metabolic syndrome definitions in predicting primary cardiovascular disease (CVD) outcomes in a vast multiethnic U.S. cohort. This study included 6,814 self-identified men and women aged 45-84 years enrolled in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) study. Gender-stratified analyses were performed to calculate hazard ratios of CVD, stroke, and mortality associated with various metabolic syndrome definitions and their individual constructs. The hazard ratios [95% confidence interval (CI)] for all-cause CVD in men were 2.90 (2.18-3.85), 2.64 (1.98-3.51), 2.16 (1.62-2.88), 2.56 (1.91-3.44), 1.82 (1.35-2.46), and 2.92 (2.15-3.95) for the National Cholesterol Education Program (NCEP), American Heart Association (AHA), World Health Organization (WHO), International Diabetes Federation (IDF), European Group for the Study of Insulin Resistance (EGIR), and the newly defined consensus criteria. Hazard ratios in women were 2.11 (1.41-3.15), 2.17 (1.45-3.27), 2.04 (1.37-3.06), 1.91 (1.27-2.88), 1.85 (1.23-2.79), and 2.08 (1.37-3.14), respectively. Metabolic syndrome was strongly associated with stroke risk only in males. In men, all constitutive metabolic syndrome components were continuously and strongly associated with CVD. In women, high-density lipoprotein and triglycerides did not appear to be associated with short term CVD risk. We found the newly defined consensus criteria for metabolic syndrome to be similarly predictive of cardiovascular events when compared to existing definitions. Significant gender differences exist in the association between metabolic syndrome, its individual components, and CVD.

Factors associated with metabolically healthy status in obesity, overweight, and normal weight at baseline of ELSA-Brasil

PubMed Central

Diniz, Maria de Fátima Haueisen Sander; Beleigoli, Alline Maria Rezende; Ribeiro, Antônio Luiz P.; Vidigal, Pedro Guatimosim; Bensenor, Isabela M.; Lotufo, Paulo A.; Duncan, Bruce B.; Schmidt, Maria Inês; Barreto, Sandhi Maria

2016-01-01

Abstract The primary aim of this study was to evaluate metabolically healthy status (MHS) among participants in obesity, overweight, and normal weight groups and characteristics associated with this phenotype using baseline data of Brazilian Longitudinal Study of Adult Health (ELSA-Brasil). The secondary aim was to investigate agreement among 4 different MHS criteria. This cross-sectional study included 14,545 participants aged 35 to 74 years with a small majority (54.1%) being women. Of all participants, 22.7% (n = 3298) were obese, 40.8% (n = 5934) were overweight, and 37.5% (n = 5313) were of normal weight. Socio-demographic, behavioral, and anthropometric factors related to MHS were ascertained. Logistic regression models estimated the odds of associations. We used 4 different criteria separately and in combination to define MHS: the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES), the National Cholesterol Education Program (NCEP-ATPIII), the International Diabetes Federation (IDF) and comorbidities, and the agreement between them were evaluated by Cohen-kappa coefficient. MHS was present among 12.0% (n = 396) of obese, 25.5% (n = 1514) of overweight, and 48.6% (n = 2582) of normal weight participants according to the combination of the 4 criteria. The agreement between all the 4 MHS criteria was strong (kappa 0.73 P < 0.001). In final logistic models, MHS was associated with lower age, female sex, lower body mass index (BMI), and weight change from age 20 within all BMI categories. This study showed that, despite differences in prevalence among the 4 criteria, MHS was associated with common characteristics at every BMI category. PMID:27399079

Metabolic syndrome, adherence to the Mediterranean diet and 10-year cardiovascular disease incidence: The ATTICA study.

PubMed

Kastorini, Christina-Maria; Panagiotakos, Demosthenes B; Chrysohoou, Christina; Georgousopoulou, Ekavi; Pitaraki, Evangelia; Puddu, Paolo Emilio; Tousoulis, Dimitrios; Stefanadis, Christodoulos; Pitsavos, Christos

2016-03-01

To better understand the metabolic syndrome (MS) spectrum through principal components analysis and further evaluate the role of the Mediterranean diet on MS presence. During 2001-2002, 1514 men and 1528 women (>18 y) without any clinical evidence of CVD or any other chronic disease, at baseline, living in greater Athens area, Greece, were enrolled. In 2011-2012, the 10-year follow-up was performed in 2583 participants (15% of the participants were lost to follow-up). Incidence of fatal or non-fatal CVD was defined according to WHO-ICD-10 criteria. MS was defined by the National Cholesterol Education Program Adult Treatment panel III (revised NCEP ATP III) definition. Adherence to the Mediterranean diet was assessed using the MedDietScore (range 0-55). Five principal components were derived, explaining 73.8% of the total variation, characterized by the: a) body weight and lipid profile, b) blood pressure, c) lipid profile, d) glucose profile, e) inflammatory factors. All components were associated with higher likelihood of CVD incidence. After adjusting for various potential confounding factors, adherence to the Mediterranean dietary pattern for each 10% increase in the MedDietScore, was associated with 15% lower odds of CVD incidence (95%CI: 0.71-1.06). For the participants with low adherence to the Mediterranean diet all five components were significantly associated with increased likelihood of CVD incidence. However, for the ones following closely the Mediterranean pattern positive, yet not significant associations were observed. Results of the present work propose a wider MS definition, while highlighting the beneficial role of the Mediterranean dietary pattern. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

The metabolic profile in early rheumatoid arthritis: a high prevalence of metabolic obesity.

PubMed

Müller, Raili; Kull, Mart; Põlluste, Kaja; Aart, Annika; Eglit, Triin; Lember, Margus; Kallikorm, Riina

2017-01-01

The aim of the study was to compare the prevalence of metabolic syndrome (MetS) in early RA patients with age-gender-matched population controls focusing on the presence of MetS in different weight categories. The study group consisted of 91 consecutive patients with early RA and 273 age- and gender-matched controls subjects. MetS was diagnosed according to the National Cholesterol Education Program (NCEP-ATP III) criteria. Mean age in both groups was 52 years, and 72.5 % were female. The prevalence of MetS did not differ between the two groups (35.2 % in RA, 34.1 % in control group). Mean systolic blood pressure in the RA group was 137 mmHg, in control group 131 mmHg, P = 0.01, and diastolic blood pressure 85 versus 81 mmHg, respectively (P < 0.01). We found that 20 of 65 (30.8 %) of RA patients compared to 80 of 152 (52.6 %) of the control subjects with elevated blood pressure received antihypertensive treatment (P < 0.01). When comparing subgroups with normal BMI, the odds of having MetS (being metabolically obese) were higher among early RA subjects (OR 5.6, CI 1.3-23.8). Of the individual components of metabolic syndrome, we found increased prevalence of hypertension (OR 2.8, CI 1.3-6.0) and hyperglycemia (OR 2.9, CI 1.0-8.0) in the RA group. Recognition of abnormal metabolic status among normal-weight RA patients who have not yet developed CVD could provide a valuable opportunity for preventative intervention.

Instability of different adolescent metabolic syndrome definitions tracked into early adulthood metabolic syndrome: Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study (TLGS).

PubMed

Asghari, Golaleh; Eftekharzadeh, Anita; Hosseinpanah, Farhad; Ghareh, Sahar; Mirmiran, Parvin; Azizi, Fereidoun

2017-02-01

There are substantial controversies about the clinical utility of adolescent metabolic syndrome (MetS). The current study examined the stability of adolescent MetS by assessing the agreement and discriminative abilities of four different definitions of adolescent MetS and the adult MetS definition during a 10.4-yr follow up. For this study, 1424 adolescents (55.2% female), who participated in the framework of the Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study were included. Kappa was calculated for agreement between adolescent MetS definitions [Cook, de Ferranti, pediatric National Cholesterol Education Program (NCEP) and pediatric International Diabetes Federation (IDF)] and the adulthood MetS definition defined by the joint interim statement (JIS) criteria. MetS persistence, instability, and incidence were assessed, and for each of the four adolescent definitions, sensitivity, specificity, and area under receiver operating curve (AUC) for the counting of categorical adulthood MetS components was evaluated. The agreement between the four adolescent MetS definitions and JIS was poor (κ = 0.094-0.255). All definitions showed low sensitivity and high specificity, except for de Ferranti's, which contrary to other definitions, had higher sensitivity and lower specificity. All four adolescent definitions revealed generally low AUCs (0.601-0.647). Compared with the pubertal group (11-14 yr), the predictive power was slightly higher in the late-pubertal group (15-18 yr). Cook's and de Ferranti's definitions showed fairly better predictive powers (0.647 and 0.644, respectively). Across all definitions, instability ranged between 5.4 and 19.6%. The adolescent definitions show considerable amount of instability defined as poor agreement and low discriminative abilities tracked into early adulthood. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The association of metabolic syndrome and Chlamydia pneumoniae, Helicobacter pylori, cytomegalovirus, and herpes simplex virus type 1: The Persian Gulf Healthy Heart Study

PubMed Central

Nabipour, Iraj; Vahdat, Katayon; Jafari, Seyed Mojtaba; Pazoki, Raha; Sanjdideh, Zahra

2006-01-01

Background The metabolic syndrome together with insulin resistance and their consequences are basic factors in pathogenesis of atherosclerosis. Chronic infections with herpes simplex virus type 1 (HSV-1), cytomegalovirus (CMV), and Chlamydia pneumoniae are associated with the development of atherosclerosis and coronary heart disease. The infectious aspects of metabolic syndrome have not been investigated. Methods In a cross-sectional, population-based study, we used National Cholesterol Education Program (NCEP)-Adult Treatment Panel (ATP)-III criteria in 1791 subjects, aged 25 years and over, selected by cluster random sampling in three Iranian ports in the northern Persian Gulf. Sera were analyzed for IgG antibodies to Chlamydia pneumoniae, HSV-1, Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori) and CMV using ELISA. Results In multiple logistic regression analysis, of the infectious agents, CMV [OR = 1.81 (1.05–3.10); p = 0.03], H. pylori [OR = 1.50 (1.12–2.00); p = 0.007] and Chlamydia pneumoniae [OR = 1.69 (1.27–2.25); p < 0.0001] showed a significant association with the metabolic syndrome in men and HSV-1 [OR = 1.95 (1.22–3.11); p = 0.005], H. pylori [OR = 1.45 (1.09–1.94); 0.01] and Chlamydia pneumoniae [OR = 1.65 (1.23–2.21); p = 0.001] in women. Conclusion The metabolic syndrome, which occurs very frequently in the general population, has a significant association with prior infection with Chlamydia pneumoniae, Helicobacter pylori, cytomegalovirus and herpes simplex virus type 1. Hypothesis about participation of infection in pathogenesis of metabolic syndrome should be investigated. PMID:17140429

Validation of the MEDFICTS dietary assessment questionnaire in a diverse population.

PubMed

Mochari, Heidi; Gao, Qian; Mosca, Lori

2008-05-01

The National Cholesterol Education Program (NCEP) recommends MEDFICTS, a rapid screening instrument for dietary fat, to assess adherence to the Adult Treatment Panel (ATP) III Therapeutic Lifestyle Changes (TLC) diet (score <40 points indicates intake of <7% of energy from saturated fat, <30% of energy from total fat, and <200 mg dietary cholesterol/day). MEDFICTS has only been validated in small, select populations and its utility in diverse clinical settings is unknown. To evaluate the ability of MEDFICTS to identify individuals who are nonadherent to a TLC diet in an ethnically diverse population that includes both English- and Spanish-speakers. MEDFICTS was administered concurrently with the Gladys Block Food Frequency Questionnaire to participants (n=501; mean age 48+/-13.5 years; 36% nonwhite; 66% female) in the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute Family Intervention Trial for Heart Health (FIT Heart) at the baseline screening visit. Reliability and validity analyses were conducted overall and by sex, age, and race/ethnicity. MEDFICTS score correlated significantly with percentage of energy from saturated fat (r=0.52, P<0.0001), percentage of energy from total fat (r=0.31, P<0.0001), and milligrams per day of dietary cholesterol (r=0.54, P<0.0001). Sensitivity of MEDFICTS to correctly identify TLC diet adherence was 85.7% and did not differ significantly by sex, age, or race/ethnicity. Specificity of MEDFICTS to correctly identify nonadherence to the TLC diet was low (56.9%) and significantly worse for women than men (48.4% vs 72.9%; P<0.0001), but did not differ significantly in older vs younger participants or among white, black, or Hispanic participants. Our data suggest that sex-specific recalibration of MEDFICTS may improve specificity and clinical utility.

Relationship between fruit and vegetable intake and the risk of metabolic syndrome and its disorders in Korean women according to menopausal status.

PubMed

Hong, Seo Ah; Kim, Mi Kyung

2017-05-01

The association between fruit and vegetable (FV) intake and risk of the metabolic syndrome (MetS) has not been elucidated fully, particularly by menopausal status. Method and Study Design: The study population was 2,999 women aged 40-64 years participating in the 4th Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. The definition of MetS and its components was based on the modified National Cholesterol Education Program Adult Treatment Panel III (NCEP ATP III) for Koreans. Dietary data were assessed by a 24-hour recall. Fruit intake was inversely related only to the risk of high blood pressure (BP), but not MetS. Total vegetable consumption was inversely associated with the MetS risk, and when combined with fruits, the inverse association was observed even in its features of high triglycerides (TG) and low HDLcholesterol as well as MetS. Assessing women by menopausal status revealed that the inverse association with the MetS risk was found only in postmenopausal women having greater total vegetables and total FV intake (aOR=0.47, 95% CI=0.29-0.75, p-trend=0.003 and aOR=0.54, 95% CI=0.35-0.85, p-trend=0.007, respectively). Analysis regarding MetS features showed that while the inverse association of total vegetables or total FV intake was observed with high TG risk in postmenopausal women, fruits intake was inversely associated with high BP risk in premenopausal women (aOR=0.54, 95% CI=0.37-0.79, p-trend=0.004). Results suggest that while fruit intake was inversely associated with high BP in premenopausal women, greater dietary intake of vegetables and total FV may protect against the risk of MetS, particularly in postmenopausal women.

Metabolic Syndrome in First Episode Schizophrenia, Based on the National Mental Health Registry of Schizophrenia (NMHR) in a General Hospital in Malaysia: A 10-Year Retrospective Cohort Study.

PubMed

Lee, Albert Muh Haur; Ng, Chong Guan; Koh, Ong Hui; Gill, Jesjeet Singh; Aziz, Salina Abdul

2018-05-07

Schizophrenia has been linked with various medical comorbidities, particularly metabolic syndrome. The number of studies on this aspect is lacking in Malaysia. (1) Objective: To investigate metabolic syndrome rates and its associated factors. (2) Method: This is the first 10-year retrospective-outcome study of patients with first episode schizophrenia in Malaysia. Out of 394 patients diagnosed with first episode schizophrenia and registered with the National Mental Health Registry of Schizophrenia (NMHR) in the General Hospital Kuala Lumpur (GHKL) in 2004⁻2005, 174 patients consented to participate in the study. They were interviewed using a Schizophrenia outcome questionnaire and the International Physical Activity Questionnaire (IPAQ). The diagnosis of metabolic syndrome was made using the National Cholesterol Education Program—Third Adult Treatment Panel (NCEP ATP III). (3) Results: All patients’ weight, body mass index, fasting blood sugar, and blood pressure are significantly increased. Sixty-three subjects (36.2%) developed metabolic syndrome while 36 (23.2%) were hypertensive, and 41 (28.1%) were diabetic. Use of fluphenthixol depot (CI = 1.05⁻5.09, OR: 0.84, p = 0.039), reduced physical activity (CI = 0.13⁻1.00, OR: −1.04, p = 0.049), and substance use disorder (CI = 1.40, 13.89, OR: 1.48, p = 0.012) were significantly associated with metabolic syndrome based on univariate analysis. In further multivariate analysis, comorbid substance abuse was the only significant factor associated with metabolic syndrome after adjusting for physical activity and intramuscular depot. (4) Conclusion: Patients with schizophrenia are at high risk of metabolic syndrome. It is important to address substance use problems as an important risk factor of this comorbidity.

Is there an increased risk of metabolic syndrome among childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia survivors? A developing country experience.

PubMed

Mohapatra, Sonali; Bansal, Deepak; Bhalla, A K; Verma Attri, Savita; Sachdeva, Naresh; Trehan, Amita; Marwaha, R K

2016-03-01

Data on metabolic syndrome (MS) in survivors of childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) from developing countries are lacking. The purpose of this single-center, uncontrolled, observational study was to assess the frequency of MS in our survivors. The survivors of ALL ≤15 years at diagnosis, who had completed therapy ≥2 years earlier, were enrolled. Anthropometric measurements (weight, height, waist circumference), biochemistry (glucose, insulin, triglycerides, high-density lipoprotein [HDL], thyroid function tests, C-reactive protein [CRP], magnesium), measurement of blood pressure, and Tanner staging were performed. MS was defined by International Diabetes Federation (IDF) and the National Cholesterol Education Program Third Adult Treatment Panel guidelines (NCEP ATP III) criteria, modified by Cook et al. (Arch Pediatr Adolesc Med. 2003;157:821-827) and Ford et al. (Diabetes Care. 2005;28:878-881). The median age of 76 survivors was 11.9 years (interquartile range [IQR]: 9.6-13.5). Twenty-four (32%) survivors were obese or overweight. The prevalence of insulin resistance (17%), hypertension (7%), hypertriglyceridemia (20%), and low HDL (37%) was comparable to the prevalence in children/adolescents in historical population-based studies from India. The prevalence of MS ranged from 1.3% to 5.2%, as per different defining criteria. Cranial radiotherapy, age at diagnosis, sex, or socioeconomic status were not risk factors for MS. The prevalence of MS in survivors of childhood ALL, at a median duration of 3 years from completion of chemotherapy, was comparable to the reference population. The prevalence of being obese or overweight was, however, greater than historical controls.

Biochemical Predictors of Early Onset Non-Alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease in Young Children with Obesity.

PubMed

Kim, Ju Young; Cho, Jinmin; Yang, Hye Ran

2018-04-16

The prevalence of metabolic syndrome (MS) and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and their associated risk factors are not well-established in young children with obesity. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the prevalence of early onset NAFLD and identify its biochemical predictors in obese children aged less than 10 years. Anthropometric measurements, blood pressure, laboratory tests, and abdominal ultrasonography (USG) were performed in all subjects. National Cholesterol Education Program-Adult Treatment Panel III (NCEP-ATP III) criteria for MS diagnosis and liver enzymes and USG for NAFLD diagnosis were assessed. A total of 356 children with obesity (233 boys, 123 girls) were included, with 172 children age ≤ 10 years and 184 adolescents. The prevalence of MS was 23.3% in young children and 35.3% in adolescents (P = 0.020); while the prevalence of NAFLD was 36.0% and 70.7%, respectively (P = 0.001). In obese children aged 10 years or less, there were significant differences in levels of serum γ-glutamyltranspeptidase (γGT) (P < 0.001), triglycerides (P = 0.042), and homeostatic model assessment of insulin resistance (P < 0.001) between the non-NAFLD and the NAFLD group. Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed significant increase in serum γGT and uric acid levels in young children. Although MS and NAFLD were more prevalent in adolescents, young children also demonstrated MS and NAFLD as obesity-related complications. Elevated serum γGT and uric acid levels may serve as biochemical predictors in detecting NAFLD in young children with obesity before investigation with abdominal USG. © 2018 The Korean Academy of Medical Sciences.

Blood rheological properties are strongly related to the metabolic syndrome in middle-aged Chinese.

PubMed

Zhang, Lei; Pu, Kui; Zhang, Su-Yan; Ren, Wen-Qi

2006-09-20

The current investigation sought to evaluate the relation between hemorheological properties and the metabolic syndrome. 1400 office workers aged 35 to 59 years were enrolled in this study. Waist circumference and blood pressure were determined. Plasma high-density lipoprotein (HDL cholesterol), triglyceride, fasting blood glucose, plasma insulin and whole blood viscosity (WBV) at a high-shear rate of 200 s(-1) were measured at the attendance. Metabolic syndrome was defined according to National Cholesterol Education Program (NCEP)/ATP III guidelines. The metabolic syndrome was identified in 18% of this sedentary population. Mean WBV was 4.71+/-0.56 mPa s. One-way ANOVA indicated WBV increased across subjects with 0-4 metabolic syndrome components (F=3.86, p<0.01). The highest vs. lowest quartiles of WBV occurred significantly more often among subjects as the number of metabolic syndrome components increased. Across five categories of the metabolic syndrome, the frequencies of the occurrence of the highest vs. lowest quartiles were: 0.40, 0.87, 1.31, 1.92, and 4.80, respectively, showing a significant correlation (R=0.817, p<0.05). Univariate logistic regression analysis showed that the prevalence of hyperviscosity was predicted positively by waist circumference (OR=1.018, 95% CI: 1.002-1.035, p<0.05) and negatively by HDL cholesterol (OR=0.295, 95% CI: 0.133-0.680, p<0.01), independently of age, sex, and smoking status. In summary, this study has shown that WBV is strongly related to the severity of the metabolic syndrome. We suggest that the hemorheological parameters could potentially be used as an additional indicator of the metabolic syndrome.

Impact of lifestyle habits on the prevalence of the metabolic syndrome among Greek adults from the ATTICA study.

PubMed

Panagiotakos, Demosthenes B; Pitsavos, Christos; Chrysohoou, Christine; Skoumas, John; Tousoulis, Dimitris; Toutouza, Marina; Toutouzas, Pavlos; Stefanadis, Christodoulos

2004-01-01

Individuals with the metabolic syndrome (MS) are at high risk for coronary heart disease and may benefit from aggressive lifestyle modification. In this study, we evaluated the effect of leisure time physical activity (PA) and the Mediterranean diet (MD) on the prevalence of the MS. The ATTICA study is a health and nutritional survey. On the basis of a multistage, random sampling, 1128 men and 1154 women (>18 years old) without any evidence of cardiovascular disease or diabetes mellitus were enrolled from the greater Athens area during 2001 to 2002. The MS was defined according to the National Cholesterol Education Program (NCEP) Adult Treatment Panel (ATP) III criteria. PA was determined from a detailed questionnaire and graded according to the kcal/min expanded. MD was assessed through a validated nutrient questionnaire. The overall prevalence of the MS was 453 of 2282 subjects (19.8%). Of these subjects, 284 (25.2%) were men and 169 (14.6%) were women (P <.001). The prevalence of the MS increased accordingly to age (P for trend <.001). With multiple logistic regression analysis, the odds ratio of having the MS when the participant consumed the MD was 0.81 (95% CI, 0.68-0.976), and when even a little to moderate PA (<7 kcal/min)was reported, the odds ratio was 0.75 (95% CI, 0.65-0.86). The higher levels of inflammation and coagulation markers among participants with MS did not explain much of the aforementioned effect of lifestyle modification. MS is common in Greece and is becoming even more common in the middle-aged population. The suggested therapeutic lifestyle approach may contribute to the reduction of the prevalence of the MS, beyond the levels of several lipid, inflammation, and coagulation markers.

Reduced flexibility associated with metabolic syndrome in community-dwelling elders.

PubMed

Chang, Ke-Vin; Hung, Chen-Yu; Li, Chia-Ming; Lin, Yu-Hung; Wang, Tyng-Guey; Tsai, Keh-Sung; Han, Der-Sheng

2015-01-01

The ageing process may lead to reductions in physical fitness, a known risk factor in the development of metabolic syndrome. The purpose of the current study was to evaluate cross-sectional and combined associations of metabolic syndrome with body composition and physical fitness in a community based geriatric population. A total of 628 community-dwelling elders attending a geriatric health examination were enrolled in the study. The diagnosis of metabolic syndrome was based on the modified National Cholesterol Education Program Adult Treatment Panel III (NCEP ATP III) criterion with Asian cutoff of waist girth was adopted in this study. Body composition was obtained using bioimpedance analysis, and physical fitness was evaluated through the measurement of muscle strength (handgrip force), lower extremity muscle endurance (sit-to-stand test), flexibility (sit-and-reach test), and cardiorespiratory endurance (2-minute step test). Multivariable logistic regression and correlation analysis were performed to determine the association of metabolic syndrome with body composition and functionality variables. Metabolic syndrome was associated with increased skeletal muscle index (SMI) (odds ratio (OR), 1.61, 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.25-2.07) and decreased flexibility (OR, 0.97, 95% CI, 0.95-0.99) compared with those without metabolic syndrome. When body mass index was accounted for in the analysis, the association of SMI with metabolic syndrome was reduced. Waist circumference was positively correlated with SMI but negatively correlated with flexibility, whereas high density lipoprotein was positively correlated with flexibility but negatively correlated with SMI. Reduced flexibility was positively associated with metabolic syndrome independent of age, gender, body composition, and functionality measurements in a community based geriatric population. Significant associations between metabolic syndrome with muscle strength and cardiorespiratory fitness in the elderly were not observed. Furthermore, flexibility should be included in the complete evaluation for metabolic syndrome.

Triglyceride-to-HDL-cholesterol ratio and metabolic syndrome as contributors to cardiovascular risk in overweight patients.

PubMed

Marotta, Teodoro; Russo, Barbara F; Ferrara, L Aldo

2010-08-01

Insulin resistance increases cardiovascular risk of obese patients. Triglyceride to high-density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio (TG/HDL) >or=3.0 (in mg/dl) is a marker of insulin resistance in overweight persons. We aimed at assessing cardiovascular risk profile in 301 overweight elderly Neapolitan outpatients, according to TG/HDL ratio and metabolic syndrome (MS), diagnosed by National Cholesterol Education Program (NCEP) and International Diabetes Federation (IDF) criteria. TG/HDL ratio was >or=3.0 in 97 patients (group A) and <3.0 in 204 (group B). Overall, 93-97% of group A patients and 38-51% of group B patients had MS, depending on the diagnostic criterion. Group A patients with MS had significantly higher waist-to-hip ratio, total and non-HDL cholesterol than group B patients with MS. In group B, MS and non-MS patients had similar waist-to-hip ratio, blood pressure, total and non-HDL cholesterol. Ten year coronary risk, calculated by the Framingham equations (n = 243), was 10.3 +/- 5% in group B, non-MS patients; 13.1 +/- 6% in group B, MS patients; 19.9 +/- 8% in group A (F = 32.8; P < 0.001). At the multiple regression analysis, TG/HDL ratio was associated with coronary risk (r(2) = 0.227) more closely than gender, blood pressure, waist-to-hip ratio, non HDL cholesterol, and MS considered as a whole. A separate regression analysis showed that the logarithmically transformed TG/HDL ratio, an index of the HDL cholesterol esterification rate, is also associated with coronary risk (r(2) = 0.252). Thus, TG/HDL ratio could help to characterize high-risk overweight patients deserving a special therapeutic effort. Cardiovascular risk profile of insulin-sensitive patients, identified by lower values of this parameter, is only moderately affected by MS.

Interannual/decadal variability in MJO activity as diagnosed in the 40-year NCEP/NCAR reanalysis and simulated in an ensemble of GISST integrations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Slingo, J. M.; Rowell, D. P.; Sperber, K. R.

1999-04-21

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the dominant mode of tropical variability at intraseasonal timescales. It displays substantial interannual variability in intensity which may have important implications for the predictability of the coupled system. The reasons for this interannual variability are not understood. The interannual behaviour of the MJO has been diagnosed initially in the 40-year NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis by calculating the variance of the 20-100 day filtered zonal mean zonal wind (10 o N-10 o S averaged) in a 100- day moving window. The results suggest that prior to the mid-1970s the activity of the MJO was consistently lower than duringmore » the latter part of the record. This may be related to either inadequacies in the data coverage, particularly over the tropical Indian Ocean prior to the introduction of satellite observations, or to the real effects of a decadal timescale warming in the tropical SSTs. This interdecadal trend is captured by the dominant EOF (explaining 28% of the variance) of the monthly mean SSTs (after removal of the mean seasonal cycle), as used in the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis for the region of the tropics where the MJO is convectively active (i.e., 60 o E-180 o E, 20 o S-20 o N). During the latter part of 1970s there was an abrupt change from a predominantly negative PC1 (i.e. colder Indian Ocean) to a positive PC1 (i.e. warmer Indian Ocean), indicative of a general warming of the tropical Indian Ocean by at least 0.5 o K over the last 40 years. However, on interannual timescales, the teleconnection patterns between MJO activity and SST show only a weak, barely significant, influence of El Niño in which the MJO is more active during the cold phase. As well as the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis, a 4-member ensemble of 45 year integrations with the Hadley Centre climate model (HADAM2a), forced by observed SSTs for 1949-93, has been used to investigate the relationship between MJO activity and SST. HADAM2a is known to give a reasonable simulation of the MJO, and the extended record provided by this ensemble of integrations allows a more robust investigation of the predictability of MJO activity than was possible with the 40-year NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis. The results have shown that, for the uncoupled system, with the atmosphere being driven by imposed SSTs, there is no reproducibility of the activity of the MJO from year to year. The interannual behaviour of the MJO is not controlled by the phase of El Niño and would appear to be mainly chaotic in character. However, the model results have confirmed the low frequency, interdecadal timescale variability of MJO ac-tivity seen in the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis. The activity of the MJO is consistently lower in all realisations prior to the mid 1970s, suggesting that the MJO may become more active as tropical SSTs become warmer. This result may have implications for the effects of global warming on the coupled atmosphere-ocean system. The implications of these results for the predictability of the tropical ocean-atmosphere system are im-portant since intraseasonal activity in the atmosphere, associated with MJO's and westerly wind bursts, can have a substantial impact on the Pacific Ocean. As the events in 1997 indicate, MJO activity may have a sig-nificant impact on the magnitude and growth rate of El Niño events. In turn the decadal changes in MJO ac-tivity suggest that if tropical SSTs continue to warm, the activity of the MJO may tend to increase which then might have implications for the future behaviour of El Niño. This work is presented in full by Slingo et al. (1999, Quart. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., in press).« less

NOAA Operational Model Archive Distribution System (NOMADS): High Availability Applications for Reliable Real Time Access to Operational Model Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alpert, J. C.; Wang, J.

2009-12-01

To reduce the impact of natural hazards and environmental changes, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) provide first alert and a preferred partner for environmental prediction services, and represents a critical national resource to operational and research communities affected by climate, weather and water. NOMADS is now delivering high availability services as part of NOAA’s official real time data dissemination at its Web Operations Center (WOC) server. The WOC is a web service used by organizational units in and outside NOAA, and acts as a data repository where public information can be posted to a secure and scalable content server. A goal is to foster collaborations among the research and education communities, value added retailers, and public access for science and development efforts aimed at advancing modeling and GEO-related tasks. The user (client) executes what is efficient to execute on the client and the server efficiently provides format independent access services. Client applications can execute on the server, if it is desired, but the same program can be executed on the client side with no loss of efficiency. In this way this paradigm lends itself to aggregation servers that act as servers of servers listing, searching catalogs of holdings, data mining, and updating information from the metadata descriptions that enable collections of data in disparate places to be simultaneously accessed, with results processed on servers and clients to produce a needed answer. The services used to access the operational model data output are the Open-source Project for a Network Data Access Protocol (OPeNDAP), implemented with the Grid Analysis and Display System (GrADS) Data Server (GDS), and applications for slicing, dicing and area sub-setting the large matrix of real time model data holdings. This approach insures an efficient use of computer resources because users transmit/receive only the data necessary for their tasks including metadata. Data sets served in this way with a high availability server offer vast possibilities for the creation of new products for value added retailers and the scientific community. We demonstrate how users can use NOMADS services to select the values of Ensemble model runs over the ith Ensemble component, (forecast) time, vertical levels, global horizontal location, and by variable, virtually a 6-Dimensional data cube of access across the internet. The example application called the “Ensemble Probability Tool” make probability predictions of user defined weather events that can be used in remote areas for weather vulnerable circumstances. An application to access data for a verification pilot study is shown in detail in a companion paper (U06) collaboration with the World Bank and is an example of high value, usability and relevance of NCEP products and service capability over a wide spectrum of user and partner needs.

BUFR TABLE B - WMO AND LOCAL (NCEP) DESCRIPTORS AS WELL AS THOSE AWAITING

Science.gov Websites

09 Reserved 0 10 Non-coordinate location (vertical) Height, altitude, pressure and derivatives . calibration method, wind profiler mode, radiance channel combinations, hardware configurations, etc. 0 26 Non -coordinate location (time) Defines time and time derivatives that are not coordinates 0 27 Non-coordinate

NAQFC Reports

Science.gov Websites

Forecasts Recent NCEP NAM-CMAQ AQF Reports EPA CMAQ Bibliography 2016-2017 Huang, J., et al., 2017: Wea Stajner, I., et al., 2016: EGU: NAQFC Overview Huang, J., et al. 2016: AMS: Bias Correction Stajner, I, et . Huang, J., et al.,(2015): CMAS, Testing of two bias correction approaches for reducing biases of

ECPC’s weekly to seasonal global forecasts

Treesearch

John O. Roads; Shyh-Chin Chen; Francis M. Fujioka

2001-01-01

The Scripps Experimental Climate Prediction Center (ECPC) has been making experimental, near-real-time seasonal global forecasts since 26 September 1997 with the NCEP global spectral model used for the reanalysis. Images of these forecasts, at daily to seasonal timescales, are provided on the World Wide Web and digital forecast products are provided on the ECPC...

The Sensitivity of a Global Ocean Model to Wind Forcing: A Test Using Sea Level and Wind Observations from Satellites and Operational Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fu, L. L.; Chao, Y.

1997-01-01

Investigated in this study is the response of a global ocean general circulation model to forcing provided by two wind products: operational analysis from the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP); observations made by the ERS-1 radar scatterometer.

NCEP-ECPC monthly to seasonal US fire danger forecasts

Treesearch

J. Roads; P. Tripp; H. Juang; J. Wang; F. Fujioka; S. Chen

2010-01-01

Five National Fire Danger Rating System indices (including the Ignition Component, Energy Release Component, Burning Index, Spread Component, and the Keetch–Byram Drought Index) and the Fosberg Fire Weather Index are used to characterise US fire danger. These fire danger indices and input meteorological variables, including temperature, relative humidity, precipitation...

NCEP SST Analysis

Science.gov Websites

Branches Global Climate & Weather Modeling Mesoscale Modeling Marine Modeling and Analysis Contact EMC Weather Service NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage Environmental Modeling Center Home News Organization Search Go Search Polar Go MMAB SST Analysis Main page About MMAB Our Mission Our Personnel EMC

National Centers for Environmental Prediction

Science.gov Websites

Modeling Mesoscale Modeling Marine Modeling and Analysis Teams Climate Data Assimilation Ensembles and Post Contacts Change Log Events Calendar Numerical Forecast Systems NCEP Model Analysis and Guidance Page [< Modeling Center NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction (NCWCP) 5830 University Research Court

NCEP Quarterly Newsletter

Science.gov Websites

second (40-level, different physics/PBL) ARW member is added for all domains (except Guam). The two ARW Skip Navigation Links weather.gov NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage National Centers for Environmental Prediction

U.S. Employment in an International Economy. Report No. 24.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

National Commission for Employment Policy (DOL), Washington, DC.

A labor market-oriented study of the effects of internationalization provided background for National Commission for Employment Policy (NCEP) recommendations on ways to enhance the ability of the U.S. economy to compete in world markets. The analysis focuses on three major dimensions: (1) trade in goods and services; (2) immigrants (legal and…

National Centers for Environmental Prediction

Science.gov Websites

Modeling Mesoscale Modeling Marine Modeling and Analysis Teams Climate Data Assimilation Ensembles and Post do data transfer from Gaea to Vapor; DTN (Nwave) has set up for all users but wants one user to test numerous cpu intensive scripts? Click here to view more information Open Effects of the problem: NCEP pre

Climate Prediction Center - Monitoring & Data: Current Monthly Atmospheric

Science.gov Websites

Data > Oceanic & Atmospheric Data > Monthly Atmospheric and SST Indices Alert Climate Diagnostics Bulletin Updates to Climatologies and Indices Beginning with January 2011 Data (To appear in : ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wd52dg/data/indices Frequently Asked Questions Questions/comments. Contact: Wei.Shi@noaa.gov To

A semi-Lagrangian advection scheme for radioactive tracers in the NCEP Regional Spectral Model (RSM)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, E.-C.; Yoshimura, K.

2015-10-01

In this study, the non-iteration dimensional-split semi-Lagrangian (NDSL) advection scheme is applied to the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Spectral Model (RSM) to alleviate the Gibbs phenomenon. The Gibbs phenomenon is a problem wherein negative values of positive-definite quantities (e.g., moisture and tracers) are generated by the spectral space transformation in a spectral model system. To solve this problem, the spectral prognostic specific humidity and radioactive tracer advection scheme is replaced by the NDSL advection scheme, which considers advection of tracers in a grid system without spectral space transformations. A regional version of the NDSL is developed in this study and is applied to the RSM. Idealized experiments show that the regional version of the NDSL is successful. The model runs for an actual case study suggest that the NDSL can successfully advect radioactive tracers (iodine-131 and cesium-137) without noise from the Gibbs phenomenon. The NDSL can also remove negative specific humidity values produced in spectral calculations without losing detailed features.

Benchmark analysis of forecasted seasonal temperature over different climatic areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giunta, G.; Salerno, R.; Ceppi, A.; Ercolani, G.; Mancini, M.

2015-12-01

From a long-term perspective, an improvement of seasonal forecasting, which is often exclusively based on climatology, could provide a new capability for the management of energy resources in a time scale of just a few months. This paper regards a benchmark analysis in relation to long-term temperature forecasts over Italy in the year 2010, comparing the eni-kassandra meteo forecast (e-kmf®) model, the Climate Forecast System-National Centers for Environmental Prediction (CFS-NCEP) model, and the climatological reference (based on 25-year data) with observations. Statistical indexes are used to understand the reliability of the prediction of 2-m monthly air temperatures with a perspective of 12 weeks ahead. The results show how the best performance is achieved by the e-kmf® system which improves the reliability for long-term forecasts compared to climatology and the CFS-NCEP model. By using the reliable high-performance forecast system, it is possible to optimize the natural gas portfolio and management operations, thereby obtaining a competitive advantage in the European energy market.

Diagnostic Studies with GLA Fields

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Salstein, David A.

1997-01-01

Assessments of the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System-1 Data Assimilation System(GEOS-1 DAS), regarding heating rates, energetics, and angular momentum quantities were made. These diagnostics can be viewed as measures of climate variability. Comparisons with the NOAA/NCEP reanalysis system of momentum and energetics diagnostics are included. Water vapor and angular momentum are diagnosed in many models, including those of NASA, as part of the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project. 'Me GEOS-I and NOAA/NCEP global atmospheric angular momentum values are coherent on time scales down to about three days. Furthermore, they agree with the series of Earth angular momentum, as measured by tiny fluctuations in the rotation rate of the Earth, as variations in the length of day. The torques that effect such changes in atmospheric and Earth momentum are dominated by the influence of particular mountain systems, including the Rockies, Himalayas, and Andes, upon mountain torques on time scales shorter than about two weeks. Other project areas included collaboration with Goddard Space Flight Center to examine the impact of mountainous areas and the treatments of parameterizations on diagnoses of the atmosphere. Relevant preprints are included herein.

Towards the Operational Ensemble-based Data Assimilation System for the Wave Field at the National Weather Service

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flampouris, Stylianos; Penny, Steve; Alves, Henrique

2017-04-01

The National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) provides the operational wave forecast for the US National Weather Service (NWS). Given the continuous efforts to improve forecast, NCEP is developing an ensemble-based data assimilation system, based on the local ensemble transform Kalman filter (LETKF), the existing operational global wave ensemble system (GWES) and on satellite and in-situ observations. While the LETKF was designed for atmospheric applications (Hunt et al 2007), and has been adapted for several ocean models (e.g. Penny 2016), this is the first time applied for oceanic waves assimilation. This new wave assimilation system provides a global estimation of the surface sea state and its approximate uncertainty. It achieves this by analyzing the 21-member ensemble of the significant wave height provided by GWES every 6h. Observations from four altimeters and all the available in-situ measurements are used in this analysis. The analysis of the significant wave height is used for initializing the next forecasting cycle; the data assimilation system is currently being tested for operational use.

Atmospheric Teleconnections From Cumulants

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sabou, F.; Kaspi, Y.; Marston, B.; Schneider, T.

2011-12-01

Multi-point cumulants of fields such as vorticity provide a way to visualize atmospheric teleconnections, complementing other approaches such as the method of empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs). We calculate equal-time two-point cumulants of the vorticity from NCEP reanalysis data during the period 1980 -- 2010 and from direct numerical simulation (DNS) using an idealized dry general circulation model (GCM) (Schneider and Walker, 2006). Extratropical correlations seen in the NCEP data are qualitatively reproduced by the model. Three- and four-point cumulants accumulated from DNS quantify departures of the probability distribution function from a normal distribution, shedding light on the efficacy of direct statistical simulation (DSS) of atmosphere dynamics by cumulant expansions (Marston, Conover, and Schneider, 2008; Marston 2011). Lagged-time two-point cumulants between temperature gradients and eddy kinetic energy (EKE), accumulated by DNS of an idealized moist aquaplanet GCM (O'Gorman and Schneider, 2008), reveal dynamics of storm tracks. Regions of enhanced baroclinicity (as found along the eastern boundary of continents) lead to a local enhancement of EKE and a suppression of EKE further downstream as the storm track self-destructs (Kaspi and Schneider, 2011).

An Investigation of Bomb Cyclogenesis in NCEP's CFS Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alvarez, F. M.; Eichler, T.; Gottschalck, J.

2008-12-01

With the concerns, impacts and consequences of climate change increasing, the need for climate models to simulate daily weather is very important. Given the improvements in resolution and physical parameterizations, climate models are becoming capable of resolving extreme weather events. A particular type of extreme event which has large impacts on transportation, industry and the general public is a rapidly intensifying cyclone referred to as a "bomb." In this study, bombs are investigated using the National Center for Environmental Prediction's (NCEP) Climate Forecast System (CFS) model. We generate storm tracks based on 6-hourly sea-level pressure (SLP) from long-term climate runs of the CFS model. Investigation of this dataset has revealed that the CFS model is capable of producing bombs. We show a case study of a bomb in the CFS model and demonstrate that it has characteristics similar to the observed. Since the CFS model is capable of producing bombs, future work will focus on trends in their frequency and intensity so that an assessment of the potential role of the bomb in climate change can be assessed.

Web-based Reanalysis Intercomparison Tools (WRIT): Comparing Reanalyses and Observational data.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Compo, G. P.; Smith, C. A.; Hooper, D. K.

2014-12-01

While atmospheric reanalysis datasets are widely used in climate science, many technical issues hinder comparing them to each other and to observations. The reanalysis fields are stored in diverse file architectures, data formats, and resolutions, with metadata, such as variable name and units, that also differ. Individual users have to download the fields, convert them to a common format, store them locally, change variable names, re-grid if needed, and convert units. Comparing reanalyses with observational datasets is difficult for similar reasons. Even if a dataset can be read via Open-source Project for a Network Data Access Protocol (OPeNDAP) or a similar protocol, most of this work is still needed. All of these tasks take time, effort, and money. To overcome some of the obstacles in reanalysis intercomparison, our group at the Cooperative Institute for Research in the Environmental Sciences (CIRES) at the University of Colorado and affiliated colleagues at National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA's) Earth System Research Laboratory Physical Sciences Division (ESRL/PSD) have created a set of Web-based Reanalysis Intercomparison Tools (WRIT) at http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/writ/. WRIT allows users to easily plot and compare reanalysis and observational datasets, and to test hypotheses. Currently, there are tools to plot monthly mean maps and vertical cross-sections, timeseries, and trajectories for standard pressure level and surface variables. Users can refine dates, statistics, and plotting options. Reanalysis datasets currently available include the NCEP/NCAR R1, NCEP/DOE R2, MERRA, ERA-Interim, NCEP CFSR and the 20CR. Observational datasets include those containing precipitation (e.g. GPCP), temperature (e.g. GHCNCAMS), winds (e.g. WASWinds), precipitable water (e.g. NASA NVAP), SLP (HadSLP2), and SST (NOAA ERSST). WRIT also facilitates the mission of the Reanalyses.org website as a convenient toolkit for studying the reanalysis datasets.

An online mineral dust model within the global/regional NMMB: current progress and plans

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perez, C.; Haustein, K.; Janjic, Z.; Jorba, O.; Baldasano, J. M.; Black, T.; Nickovic, S.

2008-12-01

While mineral dust distribution and effects are important on global scales, they strongly depend on dust emissions that are occurring on small spatial and temporal scales. Indeed, the accuracy of surface wind speed used in dust models is crucial. Due to the high-order power dependency on wind friction velocity and the threshold behaviour of dust emissions, small errors in surface wind speed lead to large dust emission errors. Most global dust models use prescribed wind fields provided by major meteorological centres (e.g., NCEP and ECMWF) and their spatial resolution is currently about 1 degree x 1 degree . Such wind speeds tend to be strongly underestimated over arid and semi-arid areas and do not account for mesoscale systems responsible for a significant fraction of dust emissions regionally and globally. Other significant uncertainties in dust emissions resulting from such approaches are related to the misrepresentation of high subgrid-scale spatial heterogeneity in soil and vegetation boundary conditions, mainly in semi-arid areas. In order to significantly reduce these uncertainties, the Barcelona Supercomputing Center is currently implementing a mineral dust model coupled on-line with the new global/regional NMMB atmospheric model using the ESMF framework under development in NOAA/NCEP/EMC. The NMMB is an evolution of the operational WRF-NMME extending from meso to global scales, and including non-hydrostatic option and improved tracer advection. This model is planned to become the next-generation NCEP mesoscale model for operational weather forecasting in North America. Current implementation is based on the well established regional dust model and forecast system Eta/DREAM (http://www.bsc.es/projects/earthscience/DREAM/). First successful global simulations show the potentials of such an approach and compare well with DREAM regionally. Ongoing developments include improvements in dust size distribution representation, sedimentation, dry deposition, wet scavenging and dust-radiation feedback, as well as the efficient implementation of the model on High Performance Supercomputers for global simulations and forecasts at high resolution.

Association between the -455T>C promoter polymorphism of the APOC3 gene and the metabolic syndrome in a multi-ethnic sample.

PubMed

Pollex, Rebecca L; Ban, Matthew R; Young, T Kue; Bjerregaard, Peter; Anand, Sonia S; Yusuf, Salim; Zinman, Bernard; Harris, Stewart B; Hanley, Anthony J G; Connelly, Philip W; Huff, Murray W; Hegele, Robert A

2007-12-20

Common polymorphisms in the promoter of the APOC3 gene have been associated with hypertriglyceridemia and may impact on phenotypic expression of the metabolic syndrome (MetS). The rs7566605 marker, located near the INSIG2 gene, has been found to be associated with obesity, making it also a potential genetic determinant for MetS. The objective of this study is to examine the APOC3 -455T>C and the INSIG2 rs7566605 polymorphisms as potential genetic determinants for MetS in a multi-ethnic sample. Subjects were genotyped for both the APOC3 -455T>C and INSIG2 rs7566605 polymorphisms, and classified for the presence or absence of MetS (NCEP ATP III and IDF definitions). The total study population included 2675 subjects (> or =18 years of age) from six different geographical ancestries. For the overall study population, the prevalence of MetS was 22.6% (NCEP ATP III definition). Carriers of > or =1 copy of APOC3 -455C were more likely to have MetS (NCEP ATP III definition) than noncarriers (carrier odds ratio 1.73, 95% CI 1.40 to 2.14, adjusting for age and study group). The basis of the association was related not only to a higher proportion of -455C carriers meeting the triglyceride and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol criteria, but also the blood pressure criteria compared with wild-type homozygotes. Plasma apo C-III concentrations were not associated with APOC3 -455T>C genotype. The INSIG2 rs7566605 polymorphism was not associated with MetS or measures of obesity. Meta-analysis of the sample of multiple geographic ancestries indicated that the functional -455T>C promoter polymorphism in APOC3 was associated with an approximately 2-fold increased risk of MetS, whereas the INSIG2 rs7566605 polymorphism was not associated with MetS.

Association between the -455T>C promoter polymorphism of the APOC3 gene and the metabolic syndrome in a multi-ethnic sample

PubMed Central

Pollex, Rebecca L; Ban, Matthew R; Young, T Kue; Bjerregaard, Peter; Anand, Sonia S; Yusuf, Salim; Zinman, Bernard; Harris, Stewart B; Hanley, Anthony JG; Connelly, Philip W; Huff, Murray W; Hegele, Robert A

2007-01-01

Background Common polymorphisms in the promoter of the APOC3 gene have been associated with hypertriglyceridemia and may impact on phenotypic expression of the metabolic syndrome (MetS). The rs7566605 marker, located near the INSIG2 gene, has been found to be associated with obesity, making it also a potential genetic determinant for MetS. The objective of this study is to examine the APOC3 -455T>C and the INSIG2 rs7566605 polymorphisms as potential genetic determinants for MetS in a multi-ethnic sample. Methods Subjects were genotyped for both the APOC3 -455T>C and INSIG2 rs7566605 polymorphisms, and classified for the presence or absence of MetS (NCEP ATP III and IDF definitions). The total study population included 2675 subjects (≥18 years of age) from six different geographical ancestries. Results For the overall study population, the prevalence of MetS was 22.6% (NCEP ATP III definition). Carriers of ≥1 copy of APOC3 -455C were more likely to have MetS (NCEP ATP III definition) than noncarriers (carrier odds ratio 1.73, 95% CI 1.40 to 2.14, adjusting for age and study group). The basis of the association was related not only to a higher proportion of -455C carriers meeting the triglyceride and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol criteria, but also the blood pressure criteria compared with wild-type homozygotes. Plasma apo C-III concentrations were not associated with APOC3 -455T>C genotype. The INSIG2 rs7566605 polymorphism was not associated with MetS or measures of obesity. Conclusion Meta-analysis of the sample of multiple geographic ancestries indicated that the functional -455T>C promoter polymorphism in APOC3 was associated with an approximately 2-fold increased risk of MetS, whereas the INSIG2 rs7566605 polymorphism was not associated with MetS. PMID:18096054

High-Resolution Subtropical Summer Precipitation Derived from Dynamical Downscaling of the NCEP-DOE Reanalysis: How Much Small-Scale Information Is Added by a Regional Model?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lim, Young-Kwon; Stefanova, Lydia B.; Chan, Steven C.; Schubert, Siegfried D.; OBrien, James J.

2010-01-01

This study assesses the regional-scale summer precipitation produced by the dynamical downscaling of analyzed large-scale fields. The main goal of this study is to investigate how much the regional model adds smaller scale precipitation information that the large-scale fields do not resolve. The modeling region for this study covers the southeastern United States (Florida, Georgia, Alabama, South Carolina, and North Carolina) where the summer climate is subtropical in nature, with a heavy influence of regional-scale convection. The coarse resolution (2.5deg latitude/longitude) large-scale atmospheric variables from the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/DOE reanalysis (R2) are downscaled using the NCEP Environmental Climate Prediction Center regional spectral model (RSM) to produce precipitation at 20 km resolution for 16 summer seasons (19902005). The RSM produces realistic details in the regional summer precipitation at 20 km resolution. Compared to R2, the RSM-produced monthly precipitation shows better agreement with observations. There is a reduced wet bias and a more realistic spatial pattern of the precipitation climatology compared with the interpolated R2 values. The root mean square errors of the monthly R2 precipitation are reduced over 93 (1,697) of all the grid points in the five states (1,821). The temporal correlation also improves over 92 (1,675) of all grid points such that the domain-averaged correlation increases from 0.38 (R2) to 0.55 (RSM). The RSM accurately reproduces the first two observed eigenmodes, compared with the R2 product for which the second mode is not properly reproduced. The spatial patterns for wet versus dry summer years are also successfully simulated in RSM. For shorter time scales, the RSM resolves heavy rainfall events and their frequency better than R2. Correlation and categorical classification (above/near/below average) for the monthly frequency of heavy precipitation days is also significantly improved by the RSM.

Bridging the knowledge gap between Big Data producers and consumers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peng, G. S.; Worley, S. J.

2015-12-01

Most weather data is produced, disseminated and consumed by expert users in large national operational centers or laboratories. Data 'ages' off their systems in days or weeks. While archives exist, would-be users often lack the credentials necessary to obtain an account to access or search its contents. Moreover, operational centers and many national archives lack the mandate and the resources to serve non-expert users. The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Research Data Archive (RDA), rda.ucar.edu, was created over 40 years ago to collect data for NCAR's internal Big Science projects such as the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis Project. Over time, the data holdings have grown to 1.8+ Petabytes spanning 600+ datasets. The user base has also grown; in 2014, we served 1.1 Petabytes of data to over 11,000 unique users. The RDA works with national centers, such as NCEP, ECMWF and JMA to make their data available to worldwide audiences and mutually support data access at the production source. We have become not just an open-access data center, but also a data education center. Each dataset archived at the RDA is assigned to a data specialist (DS) who curates the data. If a user has a question not answered in the dataset information web pages prepared by the DS, they can call or email a skilled DS for further clarification. The RDA's diverse staff—with academic training in meteorology, oceanography, engineering (electrical, civil, ocean and database), mathematics, physics, chemistry and information science—means we likely have someone who "speaks your language." Erroneous data assumptions are the Achilles heel of Big Data. It doesn't matter how much data you crunch if the data is not what you think it is. Data discovery is another difficult Big Data problem; one can only solve problems with data if one can find the right data. Metadata, both machine and human-generated, underpin the RDA data search tools. The RDA has stepped in to fill the gap between data producers and users.

Evaluation of the 29-km Eta Model for Weather Support to the United States Space Program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Manobianco, John; Nutter, Paul

1997-01-01

The Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) conducted a year-long evaluation of NCEP's 29-km mesoscale Eta (meso-eta) weather prediction model in order to identify added value to forecast operations in support of the United States space program. The evaluation was stratified over warm and cool seasons and considered both objective and subjective verification methodologies. Objective verification results generally indicate that meso-eta model point forecasts at selected stations exhibit minimal error growth in terms of RMS errors and are reasonably unbiased. Conversely, results from the subjective verification demonstrate that model forecasts of developing weather events such as thunderstorms, sea breezes, and cold fronts, are not always as accurate as implied by the seasonal error statistics. Sea-breeze case studies reveal that the model generates a dynamically-consistent thermally direct circulation over the Florida peninsula, although at a larger scale than observed. Thunderstorm verification reveals that the meso-eta model is capable of predicting areas of organized convection, particularly during the late afternoon hours but is not capable of forecasting individual thunderstorms. Verification of cold fronts during the cool season reveals that the model is capable of forecasting a majority of cold frontal passages through east central Florida to within +1-h of observed frontal passage.

Geoinformation web-system for processing and visualization of large archives of geo-referenced data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gordov, E. P.; Okladnikov, I. G.; Titov, A. G.; Shulgina, T. M.

2010-12-01

Developed working model of information-computational system aimed at scientific research in area of climate change is presented. The system will allow processing and analysis of large archives of geophysical data obtained both from observations and modeling. Accumulated experience of developing information-computational web-systems providing computational processing and visualization of large archives of geo-referenced data was used during the implementation (Gordov et al, 2007; Okladnikov et al, 2008; Titov et al, 2009). Functional capabilities of the system comprise a set of procedures for mathematical and statistical analysis, processing and visualization of data. At present five archives of data are available for processing: 1st and 2nd editions of NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis, ECMWF ERA-40 Reanalysis, JMA/CRIEPI JRA-25 Reanalysis, and NOAA-CIRES XX Century Global Reanalysis Version I. To provide data processing functionality a computational modular kernel and class library providing data access for computational modules were developed. Currently a set of computational modules for climate change indices approved by WMO is available. Also a special module providing visualization of results and writing to Encapsulated Postscript, GeoTIFF and ESRI shape files was developed. As a technological basis for representation of cartographical information in Internet the GeoServer software conforming to OpenGIS standards is used. Integration of GIS-functionality with web-portal software to provide a basis for web-portal’s development as a part of geoinformation web-system is performed. Such geoinformation web-system is a next step in development of applied information-telecommunication systems offering to specialists from various scientific fields unique opportunities of performing reliable analysis of heterogeneous geophysical data using approved computational algorithms. It will allow a wide range of researchers to work with geophysical data without specific programming knowledge and to concentrate on solving their specific tasks. The system would be of special importance for education in climate change domain. This work is partially supported by RFBR grant #10-07-00547, SB RAS Basic Program Projects 4.31.1.5 and 4.31.2.7, SB RAS Integration Projects 4 and 9.

Regional Spectral Model Workshop in memory of John Roads and Masao Kanamitsu

Treesearch

Hann-Ming Henry Juang; Shyh-Chin Chen; Songyou Hong; Hideki Kanamaru; Thomas Reichler; Takeshi Enomoto; Dian Putrasahan; Bruce T. Anderson; Sasha Gershunov; Haiqin Li; Kei Yoshimura; Nikolaus Buenning; Diane Boomer

2014-01-01

The committee for the 12th International Regional Spectral Model (RSM) Workshop drew its members from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), the U.S. Forest Service, Yonsei University, the Cooperative Institute for Climate and Satellites, the University of Tokyo, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), Hokkaido University,...

GFS-10/10/2007-12Z

Science.gov Websites

Mountainous Coasts: A change to the GFS post codes will remove a persistent, spurious high pressure system ENVIRONMENTAL PREDICTION /NCEP/ WILL UPGRADE THE GFS POST PROCESSOR. THE PRIMARY EFFORT BEHIND THIS UPGRADE WILL BE TO UNIFY THE POST PROCESSING CODE FOR THE NORTH AMERICAN MESO SCALE /NAM/ MODEL AND THE GFS INTO

U.S. NIC

Science.gov Websites

Graphs) IMS Ice Extent Data. IMS Ice Extent for sea ice only. Total Ice Sea Ice Only View chart (2200 x Hemisphere Automated Snow and Ice Mapping NOHRSC Satellite Products NCEP MMAB Sea Ice CPC Northern Hemisphere National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) ** Multisensor Analyzed Sea Ice Extent (NSIDC) ** The NRCS NWCC

Environmental Modeling Center / Marine Modeling and Analysis Branch

Science.gov Websites

Ocean Waves Sea Ice SST Marine Met. Real Time Ocean Forecasting System (RTOFS) Global RTOFS A hybrid time (0Z) out to 144 hours (6 days). Atlantic RTOFS Discontinued A hybrid coordinate, nominally 1/12Â initial time (0Z) out to 144 hours (6 days). Fukushima Tracers NCEP/NWS deployed three-dimensional

TABLE D - WMO AND LOCAL (NCEP) DESCRIPTORS AS WELL AS THOSE AWAITING

Science.gov Websites

sequences common to satellite observations None 3 05 Meteorological or hydrological sequences common to Vertical sounding sequences (conventional data) None 3 10 Vertical sounding sequences (satellite data) None (satellite data) None 3 13 Sequences common to image data None 3 14 Reserved None 3 15 Oceanographic report

Applying horizontal diffusion on pressure surface to mesoscale models on terrain-following coordinates

Treesearch

Hann-Ming Henry Juang; Ching-Teng Lee; Yongxin Zhang; Yucheng Song; Ming-Chin Wu; Yi-Leng Chen; Kevin Kodama; Shyh-Chin Chen

2005-01-01

The National Centers for Environmental Prediction regional spectral model and mesoscale spectral model (NCEP RSM/MSM) use a spectral computation on perturbation. The perturbation is defined as a deviation between RSM/MSM forecast value and their outer model or analysis value on model sigma-coordinate surfaces. The horizontal diffusion used in the models applies...

MMAB Sea Ice Analysis Page

Science.gov Websites

. Consequently we produce two sorts of field. One is suitable for use by models, the global field. And the other color bar gif of the Alaska Region map Previous Alaska Region Maps NCEP MMAB Interactive Sea Ice Image Generation Animation Alaska Region Sea of Okhotsk and Sea of Japan - current figure concentration color bar

Climate Prediction Center - Outlooks: CFS Forecast of Seasonal Climate

Science.gov Websites

National Weather Service NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS home page Climate Prediction Center Home Site government Web resources and services. CFS Seasonal Climate Forecasts CFS Forecast of Seasonal Climate discontinued after October 2012. This page displays seasonal climate anomalies from the NCEP coupled forecast

NCEP Model Verification

Science.gov Websites

daily and monthly statistics. The daily and monthly verification processing is broken down into three geopotential height and wind using daily statistics from the gdas1 prepbufr files at 00Z; 06Z; 12Z; and, 18Z Hemisphere; the Southern Hemisphere; and the Tropics. Daily S1 scores from the GFS and NAM models are

Comparative analysis of atmosphere temperature variability for Northern Eurasia based on the Reanalysis and in-situ observed data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shulgina, T.; Genina, E.; Gordov, E.; Nikitchuk, K.

2009-04-01

At present numerous data archives which include meteorological observations as well as climate processes modeling data are available for Earth Science specialists. Methods of mathematical statistics are widely used for their processing and analysis. In many cases they represent the only way of quantitative assessment of the meteorological and climatic information. Unified set of analysis methods allows us to compare climatic characteristics calculated on the basis of different datasets with the purpose of performing more detailed analysis of climate dynamics for both regional and global levels. The report presents the results of comparative analysis of atmosphere temperature behavior for the Northern Eurasia territory for the period from 1979 to 2004 based on the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis, NCEP/DOE Reanalysis AMIP II, JMA/CRIEPI JRA-25 Reanalysis, ECMWF ERA-40 Reanalysis data and observation data obtained from meteorological stations of the former Soviet Union. Statistical processing of atmosphere temperature data included analysis of time series homogeneity of climate indices approved by WMO, such as "Number of frost days", "Number of summer days", "Number of icing days", "Number of tropical nights", etc. by means of parametric methods of mathematical statistics (Fisher and Student tests). That allowed conducting comprehensive research of spatio-temporal features of the atmosphere temperature. Analysis of the atmosphere temperature dynamics revealed inhomogeneity of the data obtained for large observation intervals. Particularly, analysis performed for the period 1979 - 2004 showed the significant increase of the number of frost and icing days approximately by 1 day for every 2 years and decrease roughly by 1 day for 2 years for the number of summer days. Also it should be mentioned that the growth period mean temperature have increased by 1.5 - 2° C for the time period being considered. The usage of different Reanalysis datasets in conjunction with in-situ observed data allowed comparing of climate indices values calculated on the basis of different datasets that improves the reliability of the results obtained. Partial support of SB RAS Basic Research Program 4.5.2 (Project 2) is acknowledged.

Experimental weekly to seasonal U.S. forecasts with the Regional Spectral Model

Treesearch

J. Roads

2004-01-01

As described previously Roads et al. 2001a, hereafter RCF), the Scripps Experimental Climate Prediction Center (ECPC) has been making routine, near-real-time, long-range experimental global and regional dynamical forecasts since 27 September 1997. The global spectral model (GSM) used for these forecasts is that of National Centers for Environmental Prediction’s (NCEP;...

US Navy Operational Global Ocean and Arctic Ice Prediction Systems

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-09-01

meridional overturning circulation (Figure 29 in Hurlburt et al., 2011), when comparing a non-assimilative simulation with a data assimilative...boundary current regions of the Gulf Stream ( Atlantic ), the Kuroshio (Pacific), and the Agulhas and Somali Currents (both Indian). Consequently...Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), initially for the North Atlantic (Mehra and

The US CLIVAR Working Group on Drought: A Multi-Model Assessment of the Impact of SST Anomalies on Regional Drought

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schubert; Drought Working Group, S.

2008-12-01

The USCLIVAR working group on drought recently initiated a series of global climate model simulations forced with idealized SST anomaly patterns, designed to address a number of uncertainties regarding the impact of SST forcing and the role of land-atmosphere feedbacks on regional drought. Specific questions that the runs are designed to address include: What are mechanisms that maintain drought across the seasonal cycle and from one year to the next. What is the role of the land? What is the role of the different ocean basins, including the impact of El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO), and warming trends in the global oceans? The runs were done with several global atmospheric models including NASA/NSIPP-1, NCEP/GFS, GFDL/AM2, and NCAR CCM3 and CAM3. In addition, runs were done with the NCEP CFS (coupled atmosphere-ocean) model by employing a novel adjustment technique to nudge the coupled model towards the imposed SST forcing patterns. This talk provides an overview of the experiments and some initial results.

The US CLIVAR Working Group on Drought: A Multi-Model Assessment of the Impact of SST Anomalies on Regional Drought

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schubert, Siegfried

2008-01-01

The US CLIVAR working group on drought recently initiated a series of global climate model simulations forced with idealized SST anomaly patterns, designed to address a number of uncertainties regarding the impact of SST forcing and the role of land-atmosphere feedbacks on regional drought. Specific questions that the runs are designed to address include: What are mechanisms that maintain drought across the seasonal cycle and from one year to the next. What is the role of the land? What is the role of the different ocean basins, including the impact of EL Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO), and warming trends in the global oceans? The runs were done with several global atmospheric models including NASA/NSIPP-1, NCEP/GFS, GFDL/AM2, and NCAR CCM3 and CAM3. In addition, runs were done with the NCEP CFS (coupled atmosphere-ocean) model by employing a novel adjustment technique to nudge the coupled model towards the imposed SST forcing patterns. This talk provides an overview of the experiments and some initial results.

Comparison of mean climate trends in the Northern Hemisphere between National Centers for Environmental Prediction and two atmosphere-ocean model forced runs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lucarini, Valerio; Russell, Gary L.

2002-08-01

Results are presented for two greenhouse gas experiments of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies atmosphere-ocean model (AOM). The computed trends of surface pressure; surface temperature; 850, 500, and 200 mbar geopotential heights; and related temperatures of the model for the time frame 1960-2000 are compared with those obtained from the National Centers for Enviromental Prediction (NCEP) observations. The domain of interest is the Northern Hemisphere because of the higher reliability of both the model results and the observations. A spatial correlation analysis and a mean value comparison are performed, showing good agreement in terms of statistical significance for most of the variables considered in the winter and annual means. However, the 850 mbar temperature trends do not show significant positive correlation, and the surface pressure and 850 mbar geopotential height mean trends confidence intervals do not overlap. A brief general discussion about the statistics of trend detection is presented. The accuracy that this AOM has in describing the regional and NH mean climate trends inferred from NCEP through the atmosphere suggests that it may be reliable in forecasting future climate changes.

Climate Downscaling over Nordeste, Brazil, Using the NCEP RSM97.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Liqiang; Ferran Moncunill, David; Li, Huilan; Divino Moura, Antonio; de Assis de Souza Filho, Francisco

2005-02-01

The NCEP Regional Spectral Model (RSM), with horizontal resolution of 60 km, was used to downscale the ECHAM4.5 AGCM (T42) simulations forced with observed SSTs over northeast Brazil. An ensemble of 10 runs for the period January-June 1971-2000 was used in this study. The RSM can resolve the spatial patterns of observed seasonal precipitation and capture the interannual variability of observed seasonal precipitation as well. The AGCM bias in displacement of the Atlantic ITCZ is partially corrected in the RSM. The RSM probability distribution function of seasonal precipitation anomalies is in better agreement with observations than that of the driving AGCM. Good potential prediction skills are demonstrated by the RSM in predicting the interannual variability of regional seasonal precipitation. The RSM can also capture the interannual variability of observed precipitation at intraseasonal time scales, such as precipitation intensity distribution and dry spells. A drought index and a flooding index were adopted to indicate the severity of drought and flooding conditions, and their interannual variability was reproduced by the RSM. The overall RSM performance in the downscaled climate of the ECHAM4.5 AGCM is satisfactory over Nordeste. The primary deficiency is a systematic dry bias for precipitation simulation.

Meteorological Contribution to Variability in Particulate Matter Concentrations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woods, H. L.; Spak, S. N.; Holloway, T.

2006-12-01

Local concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM) are driven by a number of processes, including emissions of aerosols and gaseous precursors, atmospheric chemistry, and meteorology at local, regional, and global scales. We apply statistical downscaling methods, typically used for regional climate analysis, to estimate the contribution of regional scale meteorology to PM mass concentration variability at a range of sites in the Upper Midwestern U.S. Multiple years of daily PM10 and PM2.5 data, reported by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), are correlated with large-scale meteorology over the region from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis data. We use two statistical downscaling methods (multiple linear regression, MLR, and analog) to identify which processes have the greatest impact on aerosol concentration variability. Empirical Orthogonal Functions of the NCEP meteorological data are correlated with PM timeseries at measurement sites. We examine which meteorological variables exert the greatest influence on PM variability, and which sites exhibit the greatest response to regional meteorology. To evaluate model performance, measurement data are withheld for limited periods, and compared with model results. Preliminary results suggest that regional meteorological processes account over 50% of aerosol concentration variability at study sites.

Predictability of the 1997 and 1998 South Asian Summer Monsoons on the Intraseasonal Time Scale Based on 10 AMIP2 Model Runs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wu, Man Li C.; Schubert, Siegfried; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

Predictability of the 1997 and 1998 South Asian summer monsoons is examined using National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalyses, and 100 two-year simulations with ten different Atmospheric General Circulation Models (AGCMs) with prescribed sea surface temperature (SST). We focus on the intraseasonal variations of the south Asian summer monsoon associated with the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). The NCEP/NCAR reanalysis shows a clear coupling between SST anomalies and upper level velocity potential anomalies associated with the MJO. We analyze several MJO events that developed during the 1997 and 1998 focusing of the coupling with the SST. The same analysis is carried out for the model simulations. Remarkably, the ensemble mean of the two-year AGCM simulations show a signature of the observed MJO events. The ensemble mean simulated MJO events are approximately in phase with the observed events, although they are weaker, the period of oscillation is somewhat longer, and their onset is delayed by about ten days compared with the observations. Details of the analysis and comparisons among the ten AMIP2 (Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project) models will be presented in the conference.

Evaluation of energy fluxes in the NCEP climate forecast system version 2.0 (CFSv2)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rai, Archana; Saha, Subodh Kumar

2018-01-01

The energy fluxes at the surface and top of the atmosphere (TOA) from a long free run by the NCEP climate forecast system version 2.0 (CFSv2) are validated against several observation and reanalysis datasets. This study focuses on the annual mean energy fluxes and tries to link it with the systematic cold biases in the 2 m air temperature, particularly over the land regions. The imbalance in the long term mean global averaged energy fluxes are also evaluated. The global averaged imbalance at the surface and at the TOA is found to be 0.37 and 6.43 Wm-2, respectively. It is shown that CFSv2 overestimates the land surface albedo, particularly over the snow region, which in turn contributes to the cold biases in 2 m air temperature. On the other hand, surface albedo is highly underestimated over the coastal region around Antarctica and that may have contributed to the warm bias over that oceanic region. This study highlights the need for improvements in the parameterization of snow/sea-ice albedo scheme for a realistic simulation of surface temperature and that may have implications on the global energy imbalance in the model.

Multiresolution comparison of precipitation datasets for large-scale models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chun, K. P.; Sapriza Azuri, G.; Davison, B.; DeBeer, C. M.; Wheater, H. S.

2014-12-01

Gridded precipitation datasets are crucial for driving large-scale models which are related to weather forecast and climate research. However, the quality of precipitation products is usually validated individually. Comparisons between gridded precipitation products along with ground observations provide another avenue for investigating how the precipitation uncertainty would affect the performance of large-scale models. In this study, using data from a set of precipitation gauges over British Columbia and Alberta, we evaluate several widely used North America gridded products including the Canadian Gridded Precipitation Anomalies (CANGRD), the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis, the Water and Global Change (WATCH) project, the thin plate spline smoothing algorithms (ANUSPLIN) and Canadian Precipitation Analysis (CaPA). Based on verification criteria for various temporal and spatial scales, results provide an assessment of possible applications for various precipitation datasets. For long-term climate variation studies (~100 years), CANGRD, NCEP, WATCH and ANUSPLIN have different comparative advantages in terms of their resolution and accuracy. For synoptic and mesoscale precipitation patterns, CaPA provides appealing performance of spatial coherence. In addition to the products comparison, various downscaling methods are also surveyed to explore new verification and bias-reduction methods for improving gridded precipitation outputs for large-scale models.

A new voxel-based model for the determination of atmospheric weighted mean temperature in GPS atmospheric sounding

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Changyong; Wu, Suqin; Wang, Xiaoming; Hu, Andong; Wang, Qianxin; Zhang, Kefei

2017-06-01

The Global Positioning System (GPS) is a powerful atmospheric observing system for determining precipitable water vapour (PWV). In the detection of PWV using GPS, the atmospheric weighted mean temperature (Tm) is a crucial parameter for the conversion of zenith tropospheric delay (ZTD) to PWV since the quality of PWV is affected by the accuracy of Tm. In this study, an improved voxel-based Tm model, named GWMT-D, was developed using global reanalysis data over a 4-year period from 2010 to 2013 provided by the United States National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). The performance of GWMT-D was assessed against three existing empirical Tm models - GTm-III, GWMT-IV, and GTmN - using different data sources in 2014 - the NCEP reanalysis data, surface Tm data provided by Global Geodetic Observing System and radiosonde measurements. The results show that the new GWMT-D model outperforms all the other three models with a root-mean-square error of less than 5.0 K at different altitudes over the globe. The new GWMT-D model can provide a practical alternative Tm determination method in real-time GPS-PWV remote sensing systems.

NASA's educational programs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brown, Robert W.

1990-01-01

The educational programs of NASA's Educational Affairs Division are examined. The problem of declining numbers of science and engineering students is reviewed. The various NASA educational programs are described, including programs at the elementary and secondary school levels, teacher education programs, and undergraduate, graduate, and university faculty programs. The coordination of aerospace education activities and future plans for increasing NASA educational programs are considered.

Extreme air-sea surface turbulent fluxes in mid latitudes - estimation, origins and mechanisms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gulev, Sergey; Natalia, Tilinina

2014-05-01

Extreme turbulent heat fluxes in the North Atlantic and North Pacific mid latitudes were estimated from the modern era and first generation reanalyses (NCEP-DOE, ERA-Interim, MERRA NCEP-CFSR, JRA-25) for the period from 1979 onwards. We used direct surface turbulent flux output as well as reanalysis state variables from which fluxes have been computed using COARE-3 bulk algorithm. For estimation of extreme flux values we analyzed surface flux probability density distribution which was approximated by Modified Fisher-Tippett distribution. In all reanalyses extreme turbulent heat fluxes amount to 1500-2000 W/m2 (for the 99th percentile) and can exceed 2000 W/m2 for higher percentiles in the western boundary current extension (WBCE) regions. Different reanalyses show significantly different shape of MFT distribution, implying considerable differences in the estimates of extreme fluxes. The highest extreme turbulent latent heat fluxes are diagnosed in NCEP-DOE, ERA-Interim and NCEP-CFSR reanalyses with the smallest being in MERRA. These differences may not necessarily reflect the differences in mean values. Analysis shows that differences in statistical properties of the state variables are the major source of differences in the shape of PDF of fluxes and in the estimates of extreme fluxes while the contribution of computational schemes used in different reanalyses is minor. The strongest differences in the characteristics of probability distributions of surface fluxes and extreme surface flux values between different reanalyses are found in the WBCE extension regions and high latitudes. In the next instance we analyzed the mechanisms responsible for forming surface turbulent fluxes and their potential role in changes of midlatitudinal heat balance. Midlatitudinal cyclones were considered as the major mechanism responsible for extreme turbulent fluxes which are typically occur during the cold air outbreaks in the rear parts of cyclones when atmospheric conditions provide locally high winds and air-sea temperature gradients. For this purpose we linked characteristics of cyclone activity over the midlatitudinal oceans with the extreme surface turbulent heat fluxes. Cyclone tracks and parameters of cyclone life cycle (deepening rates, propagation velocities, life time and clustering) were derived from the same reanalyses using state of the art numerical tracking algorithm. The main questions addressed in this study are (i) through which mechanisms extreme surface fluxes are associated with cyclone activity? and (ii) which types of cyclones are responsible for forming extreme turbulent fluxes? Our analysis shows that extreme surface fluxes are typically associated not with cyclones themselves but rather with cyclone-anticyclone interaction zones. This implies that North Atlantic and North Pacific series of intense cyclones do not result in the anomalous surface fluxes. Alternatively, extreme fluxes are most frequently associated with blocking situations, particularly with the intensification of the Siberian and North American Anticyclones providing cold-air outbreaks over WBC regions.

A comparison of daily precipitation metrics downscaled using SDSM and WRF + WRFDA models over the Iberian Peninsula.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

José González-Rojí, Santos; Wilby, Robert L.; Sáenz, Jon; Ibarra-Berastegi, Gabriel

2017-04-01

Downscaling via the Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM) version 5.2 and two different configurations of the dynamical WRF model (with and without 3DVAR data assimilation) was evaluated for the estimation of daily precipitation over 21 sites across the Iberian Peninsula during the period 2010-2014. Six different strategies were used to calibrate the SDSM model. These options cover (1) use of NCEP/NCAR R1 Reanalysis and (2) ERA Interim data for downscaling predictor variables calibrated with data from periods (3) 1948-2009 (NCEP/NCAR R1) and (4) 1979-2009 (NCEP/NCAR R1 and ERA Interim). Additionally, for the ERA Interim case, two different grid resolutions have been used, (5) 2.5° and (6) 0.75°. On the other side, for the NCEP/NCAR R1 case, only the 2.5° resolution has been used. Configuring the SDSM model in this way allows testing the sensitivity of the results to different origins of the predictors, fit to different calibration periods and use of different reanalysis resolutions. On the other hand, ERA Interim data at the highest resolution was used as the initial/boundary conditions to run WRF simulations with a 15 km x 15 km horizontal resolution over the Iberian Peninsula, for two different configurations. The first experiment (N) was run using the same configuration typically used for numerical downscaling, with information being fed through the boundaries of the domain. The second experiment (D) was run using 3DVAR data assimilation at 00UTC, 06UTC, 12UTC and 18UTC. In both cases, WRF simulations were run over the period 2009-2014, using the first year (2009) as spin-up for the soil model. Results from the WRF N and D runs and comparable SDSM set up for the period 2010-2014 were evaluated using observations from ECA and E-OBS datasets. In each case, model skill was assessed using seven daily precipitation metrics (absolute mean, wet-day intensity, 90th percentile, maximum 5-day total, maximum number of consecutive dry days, fraction of total from heavy events and number of heavy events defined here as values over the threshold of 90th percentile. Our results show that the SDSM model improves its behaviour when using predictors from the ERA Interim Reanalysis. Improvements are even more impressive when using the 0.75° resolution for ERA Interim. Better results than using WRF D are obtained with this configuration of the SDSM model for mean precipitation and precipitation intensity. Overall, the analysis reveals the extent to which the skill of SDSM can be improved through judicious choice of downscaling predictor source, grid resolution and calibration period. Moreover, the computationally efficient SDSM tool can achieve comparable skill to WRF over a range of precipitation metrics and the contrasting rainfall regimes of the Iberian Peninsula.

Impact of soil moisture on regional spectral model simulations for South America

Treesearch

Shyh-Chin Chen; John Roads

2005-01-01

A regional simulation using the regional spectral model (RSM) with 50-km grid space increment over South America is described. NCEP/NCAR 28 vertical levels T62 spectral resolution reanalyses were used to initialize and force the regional model for a two-year period from March 1997 through March 1999. Initially, the RSM had a severe drying trend in the soil moisture...

Regional Spectral Model simulations of the summertime regional climate over Taiwan and adjacent areas

Treesearch

Ching-Teng Lee; Ming-Chin Wu; Shyh-Chin Chen

2005-01-01

The National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) regional spectral model (RSM) version 97 was used to investigate the regional summertime climate over Taiwan and adjacent areas for June-July-August of 1990 through 2000. The simulated sea-level-pressure and wind fields of RSM1 with 50-km grid space are similar to the reanalysis, but the strength of the...

Impact of Bias-Correction Type and Conditional Training on Bayesian Model Averaging over the Northeast United States

Treesearch

Michael J. Erickson; Brian A. Colle; Joseph J. Charney

2012-01-01

The performance of a multimodel ensemble over the northeast United States is evaluated before and after applying bias correction and Bayesian model averaging (BMA). The 13-member Stony Brook University (SBU) ensemble at 0000 UTC is combined with the 21-member National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Short-Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) system at 2100 UTC....

NCEP Operational HWRF Forecasting System

Science.gov Websites

2010 Basin: North Atlantic Eastern North Pacific Central North Pacific Western North Pacific North ALBERTO01L North Atlantic: (1) active ALBERTO01L Eastern North Pacific: (0) active Central North Pacific: (0 ) active Western North Pacific: (0) active North Indian Ocean: (0) active Southern Hemisphere: (0) active Â

Synoptic climatology of the long-distance dispersal of white pine blister rust I. Development of an upper level synoptic classification

Treesearch

K. L. Frank; L. S. Kalkstein; B. W. Geils; H. W. Thistle

2008-01-01

This study developed a methodology to temporally classify large scale, upper level atmospheric conditions over North America, utilizing a newly-developed upper level synoptic classification (ULSC). Four meteorological variables: geopotential height, specific humidity, and u- and v-wind components, at the 500 hPa level over North America were obtained from the NCEP/NCAR...

Fine Scale Modeling and Forecasts of Upper Atmospheric Turbulence for Operational Use

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-11-30

Weather Center Digital Data Service (ADDS) fhttp://www.aviationweather.gov/adds, http://weather.aero/1 Graphical Turbulence Guidance product, GTG -2.5...analysis GTG - Graphical Turbulence Guidance HRMM - High Resolution Mesoscale/Microscale ICD - Interface Control Document IDE - Integrated Development...site (with GTG 2.5 data) http://www.aviationweather.gov/turbuience • ADDS Experimental site http://weather.aero/ • NCEP FNL data - http

HYSPLIT SMOKE/DUST GRAPHICS

Science.gov Websites

HYSPLIT SMOKE/DUST Forecasts 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 Select speed: normal 28 29 30 31 Select Cycle: 06Z 12Z Select Field: Smoke Fine Particulate matter (ug/m3) Dust Fine Particulate matter (ug/m3) Select vertical level: Surface Column Average Get map NAQFC NCEP Home NOAA Home

Potential Seasonal Predictability of Water Cycle in Observations and Reanalysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, X.; Houser, P.

2012-12-01

Identification of predictability of water cycle variability is crucial for climate prediction, water resources availability, ecosystem management and hazard mitigation. An analysis that can assess the potential skill in seasonal prediction was proposed by the authors, named as analysis of covariance (ANOCOVA). This method tests whether interannual variability of seasonal means exceeds that due to weather noise under the null hypothesis that seasonal means are identical every year. It has the advantage of taking into account autocorrelation structure in the daily time series but also accounting for the uncertainty of the estimated parameters in the significance test. During the past several years, multiple reanalysis datasets have become available for studying climate variability and understanding climate system. We are motivated to compare the potential predictability of water cycle variation from different reanalysis datasets against observations using the newly proposed ANOCOVA method. The selected eight reanalyses include the National Centers for Environmental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) 40-year Reanalysis Project (NNRP), the National Centers for Environmental Prediction-Department of Energy (NCEP/DOE) Reanalysis Project (NDRP), the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) 40-year Reanalysis, The Japan Meteorological Agency 25-year Reanalysis Project (JRA25), the ECMWF) Interim Reanalysis (ERAINT), the NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA), and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration-Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (NOAA/CIRES) 20th Century Reanalysis Version 2 (20CR). For key water cycle components, precipitation and evaporation, all reanalyses consistently show high fraction of predictable variance in the tropics, low predictability over the extratropics, more potential predictability over the ocean than land, and a stronger seasonal variation in potential predictability over land than ocean. The substantial differences are observed especially over the extropical areas where boundary-forced signal is not as significant as in tropics. We further evaluate the accuracy of reanalysis in estimating seasonal predictability over several selected regions, where rain gauge measurement or land surface data assimilation product is available and accurate, to gain insight on the strength and weakness of reanalysis products.

Real-time Extremely Heavy Rainfall Forecast and Warning over Rajasthan During the Monsoon Season (2016)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Srivastava, Kuldeep; Pradhan, D.

2018-01-01

Two events of extremely heavy rainfall occurred over Rajasthan during 7-9 August 2016 and 19-21 August 2016. Due to these events, flooding occurred over east Rajasthan and affected the normal life of people. A low-pressure area lying over northwest Madhya Pradesh on 7 August 2016 moved north-westward and lay near east Rajasthan and adjoining northwest Madhya Pradesh on 8 and 9 August 2016. Under the influence of this low-pressure system, Chittorgarh district and adjoining areas of Rajasthan received extremely heavy rainfall of 23 cm till 0300 UTC of 8 August 2016 and 34 cm on 0300 UTC of 9 August 2016. A deep depression lying over extreme south Uttar Pradesh and adjoining northeast Madhya Pradesh on 19 August 2016 moved westward and gradually weakened into a depression on 20 August 2016. It further weakened into a low-pressure area and lay over east Rajasthan on 21 and 22 August 2016. Under the influence of this deep depression, Jhalawar received 31 cm and Baran received 25 cm on 19 August. On 20 August 2016, extremely heavy rainfall (EHR) occurred over Banswara (23.5 cm), Pratapgarh (23.2 cm) and Chittorgarh (22.7 cm) districts. In this paper, the performance of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) global forecast system (GFS) model for real-time forecast and warning of heavy to very heavy/EHR that occurred over Rajasthan during 7-9 August 2016 and 19-21 August 2016 has been examined. The NCEP GFS forecast rainfall (Day 1, Day 2 and Day 3) was compared with the corresponding observed gridded rainfall. Based on the predictions given by the NCEP GFS model for heavy rainfall and with their application in real-time rainfall forecast and warnings issued by the Regional Weather Forecasting Center in New Delhi, it is concluded that the model has predicted the wind pattern and EHR event associated with the low-pressure system very accurately on day 1 and day 2 forecasts and with small errors in intensity and space for day 3.

Evaluation of the NCEP CFSv2 45-day Forecasts for Predictability of Intraseasonal Tropical Storm Activities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schemm, J. E.; Long, L.; Baxter, S.

2013-12-01

Evaluation of the NCEP CFSv2 45-day Forecasts for Predictability of Intraseasonal Tropical Storm Activities Jae-Kyung E. Schemm, Lindsey Long and Stephen Baxter Climate Prediction Center, NCEP/NWS/NOAA Predictability of intraseasonal tropical storm (TS) activities is assessed using the 1999-2010 CFSv2 hindcast suite. Weekly TS activities in the CFSv2 45-day forecasts were determined using the TS detection and tracking method devised by Carmago and Zebiak (2002). The forecast periods are divided into weekly intervals for Week 1 through Week 6, and also the 30-day mean. The TS activities in those intervals are compared to the observed activities based on the NHC HURDAT and JTWC Best Track datasets. The CFSv2 45-day hindcast suite is made of forecast runs initialized at 00, 06, 12 and 18Z every day during the 1999 - 2010 period. For predictability evaluation, forecast TS activities are analyzed based on 20-member ensemble forecasts comprised of 45-day runs made during the most recent 5 days prior to the verification period. The forecast TS activities are evaluated in terms of the number of storms, genesis locations and storm tracks during the weekly periods. The CFSv2 forecasts are shown to have a fair level of skill in predicting the number of storms over the Atlantic Basin with the temporal correlation scores ranging from 0.73 for Week 1 forecasts to 0.63 for Week 6, and the average RMS errors ranging from 0.86 to 1.07 during the 1999-2010 hurricane season. Also, the forecast track density distribution and false alarm statistics are compiled using the hindcast analyses. In real-time applications of the intraseasonal TS activity forecasts, the climatological TS forecast statistics will be used to make the model bias corrections in terms of the storm counts, track distribution and removal of false alarms. An operational implementation of the weekly TS activity prediction is planned for early 2014 to provide an objective input for the CPC's Global Tropical Hazards Outlooks.

A Comparison of Latent Heat Fluxes over Global Oceans for Four Flux Products

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chou, Shu-Hsien; Nelkin, Eric; Ardizzone, Joe; Atlas, Robert M.

2003-01-01

To improve our understanding of global energy and water cycle variability, and to improve model simulations of climate variations, it is vital to have accurate latent heat fluxes (LHF) over global oceans. Monthly LHF, 10-m wind speed (U10m), 10-m specific humidity (Q10h), and sea-air humidity difference (Qs-Q10m) of GSSTF2 (version 2 Goddard Satellite-based Surface Turbulent Fluxes) over global Oceans during 1992-93 are compared with those of HOAPS (Hamburg Ocean Atmosphere Parameters and Fluxes from Satellite Data), NCEP (NCEP/NCAR reanalysis). The mean differences, standard deviations of differences, and temporal correlation of these monthly variables over global Oceans during 1992-93 between GSSTF2 and each of the three datasets are analyzed. The large-scale patterns of the 2yr-mean fields for these variables are similar among these four datasets, but significant quantitative differences are found. The temporal correlation is higher in the northern extratropics than in the south for all variables, with the contrast being especially large for da Silva as a result of more missing ship data in the south. The da Silva has extremely low temporal correlation and large differences with GSSTF2 for all variables in the southern extratropics, indicating that da Silva hardly produces a realistic variability in these variables. The NCEP has extremely low temporal correlation (0.27) and large spatial variations of differences with GSSTF2 for Qs-Q10m in the tropics, which causes the low correlation for LHF. Over the tropics, the HOAPS LHF is significantly smaller than GSSTF2 by approx. 31% (37 W/sq m), whereas the other two datasets are comparable to GSSTF2. This is because the HOAPS has systematically smaller LHF than GSSTF2 in space, while the other two datasets have very large spatial variations of large positive and negative LHF differences with GSSTF2 to cancel and to produce smaller regional-mean differences. Our analyses suggest that the GSSTF2 latent heat flux, surface air humidity, and winds are likely to be more realistic than the other three flux datasets examined, although those of GSSTF2 are still subject to regional biases.

Applying an economical scale-aware PDF-based turbulence closure model in NOAA NCEP GCMs.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Belochitski, A.; Krueger, S. K.; Moorthi, S.; Bogenschutz, P.; Cheng, A.

2017-12-01

A novel unified representation of sub-grid scale (SGS) turbulence, cloudiness, and shallow convection is being implemented into the NOAA NCEP Global Forecasting System (GFS) general circulation model. The approach, known as Simplified High Order Closure (SHOC), is based on predicting a joint PDF of SGS thermodynamic variables and vertical velocity, and using it to diagnose turbulent diffusion coefficients, SGS fluxes, condensation, and cloudiness. Unlike other similar methods, comparatively few new prognostic variables needs to be introduced, making the technique computationally efficient. In the base version of SHOC it is SGS turbulent kinetic energy (TKE), and in the developmental version — SGS TKE, and variances of total water and moist static energy (MSE). SHOC is now incorporated into a version of GFS that will become a part of the NOAA Next Generation Global Prediction System based around NOAA GFDL's FV3 dynamical core, NOAA Environmental Modeling System (NEMS) coupled modeling infrastructure software, and a set novel physical parameterizations. Turbulent diffusion coefficients computed by SHOC are now used in place of those produced by the boundary layer turbulence and shallow convection parameterizations. Large scale microphysics scheme is no longer used to calculate cloud fraction or the large-scale condensation/deposition. Instead, SHOC provides these quantities. Radiative transfer parameterization uses cloudiness computed by SHOC. An outstanding problem with implementation of SHOC in the NCEP global models is excessively large high level tropical cloudiness. Comparison of the moments of the SGS PDF diagnosed by SHOC to the moments calculated in a GigaLES simulation of tropical deep convection case (GATE), shows that SHOC diagnoses too narrow PDF distributions of total cloud water and MSE in the areas of deep convective detrainment. A subsequent sensitivity study of SHOC's diagnosed cloud fraction (CF) to higher order input moments of the SGS PDF demonstrated that CF is improved if SHOC is provided with correct variances of total water and MSE. Consequently, SHOC was modified to include two new prognostic equations for variances of total water and MSE, and coupled with the Chikira-Sugiyama parameterization of deep convection to include effects of detrainment on the prognostic variances.

High Resolution Modeling in Mountainous Terrain for Water Resource Management: AN Extreme Precipitation Event Case Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Masarik, M. T.; Watson, K. A.; Flores, A. N.; Anderson, K.; Tangen, S.

2016-12-01

The water resources infrastructure of the Western US is designed to deliver reliable water supply to users and provide recreational opportunities for the public, as well as afford flood control for communities by buffering variability in precipitation and snow storage. Thus water resource management is a balancing act of meeting multiple objectives while trying to anticipate and mitigate natural variability of water supply. Currently, the forecast guidance available to personnel managing resources in mountainous terrain is lacking in two ways: the spatial resolution is too coarse, and there is a gap in the intermediate time range (10-30 days). To address this need we examine the effectiveness of using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, a state of the art, regional, numerical weather prediction model, as a means to generate high-resolution weather guidance in the intermediate time range. This presentation will focus on a reanalysis and hindcasting case study of the extreme precipitation and flooding event in the Payette River Basin of Idaho during the period of June 2nd-4th, 2010. For the reanalysis exercise we use NCEP's Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) and the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) data sets as input boundary conditions to WRF. The model configuration includes a horizontal spatial resolution of 3km in the outer nest, and 1 km in the inner nest, with output temporal resolution of 3 hrs and 1 hr, respectively. The hindcast simulations, which are currently underway, will make use of the NCEP Climate Forecast System Reforecast (CFSRR) data. The current state of these runs will be discussed. Preparations for the second of two components in this project, weekly WRF forecasts during the intense portion of the water year, will be briefly described. These forecasts will use the NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) operational forecast data as boundary conditions to provide forecast guidance geared towards water resource managers out to a lead time of 30 days. We are particularly interested in the degree to which there is forecast skill in basinwide precipitation occurrence, departure from climatology, timing, and amount in the intermediate time range.

Simulation of Orographically-Driven Precipitation in Southern California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carpenter, T. M.; Georgakakos, K. P.

2008-12-01

The proximity of the Pacific Ocean to the Transverse and Peninsular Mountain Ranges of coastal Southern California may lead to significant, orographically-enhanced precipitation in the region. With abundant moisture, such as evidenced in Pineapple Express events or atmospheric rivers, this precipitation may lead to other hydrologic hazards as flash flooding, landslides or debris flows. Available precipitation observation networks are relatively sparse in the mountainous regions and often do not capture the spatial variation of these events with high resolution. This study aims to simulate the topographically-driven precipitation over Southern California with high spatial resolution using a simplified orographic precipitation model. The model employs potential theory flow to estimate steady state three-dimensional wind fields for given free stream velocity forcing winds, atmospheric moisture advection, and cloud and precipitation microphysics proposed by Kessler (1969). The advantage of this modeling set-up is the computational efficiency as compared to regional mesoscale models such as the MM5. For this application, the Southern California region, comprised of the counties of Santa Barbara, Ventura, Los Angeles, Orange, and San Diego, and portions of San Bernardino and Riverside counties, are modeled at a 3-km resolution. The orographic precipitation model is forced by free stream wind velocities given by the 700mb winds from the NCEP Reanalysis I dataset. Atmospheric moisture initial conditions are defined also by the NCEP Reanalysis I dataset, and updated 4x- daily with the available 6-hourly NCEP Reanalysis forcing. This paper presents a comparison of the simulated precipitation to observations for over a variety of spatial scales and over the historical wet season periods from October 2000 to April 2005. The comparison is made over several performance measurements including (a) the occurrence/non-occurrence of precipitation, (b) overall bias and correlation, (c) bias and correlation for precipitation exceeding given thresholds, and (d) the frequency distributions of non-zero precipitation. The results of simulation performance are compared to reported results of other orographically-driven precipitation and regional mesoscale model studies within the Western U.S.

The Continuation of Cloud Statistics for NASA Climate Change Studies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wylie, Donald P.

2001-01-01

The weather systems, cyclones, and anticyclones, along with air trajectories and cloud forms, are compared to past studies of the Arctic to assess compatibility of the four month study of the Arctic Cloud Experiment flights of the First ISCCP Regional Experiment (FIRE/ACE) with past climatologies. The frequency and movement of cyclones (lows) and anticyclones (highs) followed the general eastward and northeastward directions indicated by past studies. Most cyclones (lows) came from eastern Siberia and the Bering Sea to the south and moved north across the Bering Straight or Alaska into the Arctic Ocean. They generally weakened in central pressure as they moved poleward. Anticyclones (highs) were most common in the eastern Beaufort Sea near Canada in June and July as predicted from previous studies. However, many cyclones and anticyclones moved in westward directions which is rare in other latitudes. Erratic changes in shape and intensity on a daily basis also were observed. The National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) analysis generally reflected the Surface Heat Budget in the Arctic (SHEBA) Ship World Meteorological Organization (WMO) observations which it used. However, NCEP temperatures were biased warm by 1.0 to 1.5 C in April and early May. In July when the surface temperature were at the freezing/thawing point, the NCEP analysis changed to a cold bias of -1.0 C. Dew points had smaller biases except for July where they were biased cold by -1.4 C. Wind speeds had a -2 m/s low bias for the six windiest days. Surface barometric pressures had consistently low biases from -1.2 to -2.8 hPa in all four months. Air parcel historical trajectories were mainly from the south or from local anticyclonic gyres in the Beaufort Sea. Most air came to the SHEBA Ship from the north Pacific Ocean or from Alaska and Canada and occasionally from eastern Siberia. Very few trajectories traced back across the pole to Europe and Central Asia. Cloud cover was high, as expected, from 69-86% of the time. Satellite data also indicate frequent stratus, altostratus, and cirrus clouds (occurring 61% of the time) above the expected boundary layer fog and Arctic stratus clouds.

Monitoring the performance of the next Climate Forecast System version 3, throughout its development stage at EMC/NCEP

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peña, M.; Saha, S.; Wu, X.; Wang, J.; Tripp, P.; Moorthi, S.; Bhattacharjee, P.

2016-12-01

The next version of the operational Climate Forecast System (version 3, CFSv3) will be a fully coupled six-components system with diverse applications to earth system modeling, including weather and climate predictions. This system will couple the earth's atmosphere, land, ocean, sea-ice, waves and aerosols for both data assimilation and modeling. It will also use the NOAA Environmental Modeling System (NEMS) software super structure to couple these components. The CFSv3 is part of the next Unified Global Coupled System (UGCS), which will unify the global prediction systems that are now operational at NCEP. The UGCS is being developed through the efforts of dedicated research and engineering teams and through coordination across many CPO/MAPP and NGGPS groups. During this development phase, the UGCS is being tested for seasonal purposes and undergoes frequent revisions. Each new revision is evaluated to quickly discover, isolate and solve problems that negatively impact its performance. In the UGCS-seasonal model, components (e.g., ocean, sea-ice, atmosphere, etc.) are coupled through a NEMS-based "mediator". In this numerical infrastructure, model diagnostics and forecast validation are carried out, both component by component, and as a whole. The next stage, model optimization, will require enhanced performance diagnostics tools to help prioritize areas of numerical improvements. After the technical development of the UGCS-seasonal is completed, it will become the first realization of the CFSv3. All future development of this system will be carried out by the climate team at NCEP, in scientific collaboration with the groups that developed the individual components, as well as the climate community. A unique challenge to evaluate this unified weather-climate system is the large number of variables, which evolve over a wide range of temporal and spatial scales. A small set of performance measures and scorecard displays are been created, and collaboration and software contributions from research and operational centers are being incorporated. A status of the CFSv3/UGCS-seasonal development and examples of its performance and measuring tools will be presented.

Uncertainty of the global oceanic CO2 exchange at the air-water interface induced by the choice of the gas exchange velocity formulation and the wind product: quantification and spatial analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roobaert, Alizee; Laruelle, Goulven; Landschützer, Peter; Regnier, Pierre

2017-04-01

In lakes, rivers, estuaries and the ocean, the quantification of air-water CO2 exchange (FCO2) is still characterized by large uncertainties partly due to the lack of agreement over the parameterization of the gas exchange velocity (k). Although the ocean is generally regarded as the best constrained system because k is only controlled by the wind speed, numerous formulations are still currently used, leading to potentially large differences in FCO2. Here, a quantitative global spatial analysis of FCO2 is presented using several k-wind speed formulations in order to compare the effect of the choice of parameterization of k on FCO2. This analysis is performed at a 1 degree resolution using a sea surface pCO2 product generated using a two-step artificial neuronal network by Landschützer et al. (2015) over the 1991-2011 period. Four different global wind speed datasets (CCMP, ERA, NCEP 1 and NCEP 2) are also used to assess the effect of the choice of one wind speed product over the other when calculating the global and regional oceanic FCO2. Results indicate that this choice of wind speed product only leads to small discrepancies globally (6 %) except with NCEP 2 which produces a more intense global FCO2 compared to the other wind products. Regionally, theses differences are even more pronounced. For a given wind speed product, the choice of parametrization of k yields global FCO2 differences ranging from 7 % to 16 % depending on the wind product used. We also provide latitudinal profiles of FCO2 and its uncertainty calculated combining all combinations between the different k-relationships and the four wind speed products. Wind speeds >14 m s-1, which only account for 7 % of all observations, contributes disproportionately to the global oceanic FCO2 and, for this range of wind speeds, the uncertainty induced by the choice of formulation for k is maximum ( 50 %).

34 CFR 682.100 - The Federal Family Education Loan programs.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... 34 Education 3 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false The Federal Family Education Loan programs. 682.100... POSTSECONDARY EDUCATION, DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION FEDERAL FAMILY EDUCATION LOAN (FFEL) PROGRAM Purpose and Scope § 682.100 The Federal Family Education Loan programs. (a) This part governs the following four programs...

76 FR 7175 - Native Hawaiian Education Program; Office of Elementary and Secondary Education; Overview...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-02-09

... DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION Native Hawaiian Education Program; Office of Elementary and Secondary Education; Overview Information; Native Hawaiian Education Program; Notice Inviting Applications for New... Hawaiian Education (NHE) program is to support innovative projects that enhance the educational services...

Individualized Education Program (IEP) Planning Guide for Special Education Students Entering High School Vocational Education Programs.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Burrell, Lewis P.

This guide is designed to assist school program planners who are working with mainstreamed special education students in vocational education programs. The guide, covering grades 11 and 12, contains vocational program goals, objectives, and evaluation measures for 30 secondary vocational education programs in 15 curriculum areas, as well as for…

28 CFR 544.52 - Levels of Occupational Education Programs.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... 28 Judicial Administration 2 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Levels of Occupational Education Programs... MANAGEMENT EDUCATION Occupational Education Programs § 544.52 Levels of Occupational Education Programs. Occupational education programs are offered at the certificate level and the classroom level. Each level may...

49 CFR 655.14 - Education and training programs.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... 49 Transportation 7 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Education and training programs. 655.14 Section... OPERATIONS Program Requirements § 655.14 Education and training programs. Each employer shall establish an employee education and training program for all covered employees, including: (a) Education. The education...

49 CFR 655.14 - Education and training programs.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... 49 Transportation 7 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Education and training programs. 655.14 Section... OPERATIONS Program Requirements § 655.14 Education and training programs. Each employer shall establish an employee education and training program for all covered employees, including: (a) Education. The education...

49 CFR 655.14 - Education and training programs.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... 49 Transportation 7 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Education and training programs. 655.14 Section... OPERATIONS Program Requirements § 655.14 Education and training programs. Each employer shall establish an employee education and training program for all covered employees, including: (a) Education. The education...

49 CFR 655.14 - Education and training programs.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... 49 Transportation 7 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Education and training programs. 655.14 Section... OPERATIONS Program Requirements § 655.14 Education and training programs. Each employer shall establish an employee education and training program for all covered employees, including: (a) Education. The education...

49 CFR 655.14 - Education and training programs.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... 49 Transportation 7 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Education and training programs. 655.14 Section... OPERATIONS Program Requirements § 655.14 Education and training programs. Each employer shall establish an employee education and training program for all covered employees, including: (a) Education. The education...

34 CFR 461.10 - What documents must a State submit to receive a grant?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... adult basic education programs, including programs for adults with limited English proficiency, will not...) OFFICE OF VOCATIONAL AND ADULT EDUCATION, DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION ADULT EDUCATION STATE-ADMINISTERED... education programs, including programs for educationally disadvantaged adults, to initiate new programs of...

34 CFR 461.10 - What documents must a State submit to receive a grant?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... adult basic education programs, including programs for adults with limited English proficiency, will not...) OFFICE OF VOCATIONAL AND ADULT EDUCATION, DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION ADULT EDUCATION STATE-ADMINISTERED... education programs, including programs for educationally disadvantaged adults, to initiate new programs of...

34 CFR 461.10 - What documents must a State submit to receive a grant?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... adult basic education programs, including programs for adults with limited English proficiency, will not...) OFFICE OF VOCATIONAL AND ADULT EDUCATION, DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION ADULT EDUCATION STATE-ADMINISTERED... education programs, including programs for educationally disadvantaged adults, to initiate new programs of...

34 CFR 461.10 - What documents must a State submit to receive a grant?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... adult basic education programs, including programs for adults with limited English proficiency, will not...) OFFICE OF VOCATIONAL AND ADULT EDUCATION, DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION ADULT EDUCATION STATE-ADMINISTERED... education programs, including programs for educationally disadvantaged adults, to initiate new programs of...

Educational Programs That Work. A Catalogue of Demonstration Sites of Successful Educational Programs Developed through the New Jersey Elementary and Secondary Education Act, Title III Program. 1974-75 Edition.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Soper, Dorothy B.

This catalogue contains descriptions of 17 successful education programs developed in New Jersey public schools and validated by U.S. Office of Education Standards. Most programs are funded to offer dissemination services and/or materials to educators. Programs discussed are the following: (a) Academic Advancement Program: Mathematics; (b) Project…

38 CFR 21.9765 - Program of education approval.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... 38 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief 2 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Program of education... (CONTINUED) VOCATIONAL REHABILITATION AND EDUCATION Post-9/11 GI Bill Approval of Programs of Education § 21.9765 Program of education approval. VA may provide educational assistance for pursuit of a program of...

38 CFR 21.9765 - Program of education approval.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... 38 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief 2 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Program of education... (CONTINUED) VOCATIONAL REHABILITATION AND EDUCATION Post-9/11 GI Bill Approval of Programs of Education § 21.9765 Program of education approval. VA may provide educational assistance for pursuit of a program of...

38 CFR 21.9765 - Program of education approval.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... 38 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief 2 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Program of education... (CONTINUED) VOCATIONAL REHABILITATION AND EDUCATION Post-9/11 GI Bill Approval of Programs of Education § 21.9765 Program of education approval. VA may provide educational assistance for pursuit of a program of...

38 CFR 21.9765 - Program of education approval.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... 38 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief 2 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Program of education... (CONTINUED) VOCATIONAL REHABILITATION AND EDUCATION Post-9/11 GI Bill Approval of Programs of Education § 21.9765 Program of education approval. VA may provide educational assistance for pursuit of a program of...

38 CFR 21.9765 - Program of education approval.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... 38 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Program of education... (CONTINUED) VOCATIONAL REHABILITATION AND EDUCATION Post-9/11 GI Bill Approval of Programs of Education § 21.9765 Program of education approval. VA may provide educational assistance for pursuit of a program of...

34 CFR 403.60 - What are the basic programs?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... 34 Education 3 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false What are the basic programs? 403.60 Section 403.60... ADULT EDUCATION, DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION STATE VOCATIONAL AND APPLIED TECHNOLOGY EDUCATION PROGRAM What... Vocational Education Programs. (f) Postsecondary and Adult Vocational Education Programs. (Authority: 20 U.S...

34 CFR 403.60 - What are the basic programs?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... 34 Education 3 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false What are the basic programs? 403.60 Section 403.60... ADULT EDUCATION, DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION STATE VOCATIONAL AND APPLIED TECHNOLOGY EDUCATION PROGRAM What... Vocational Education Programs. (f) Postsecondary and Adult Vocational Education Programs. (Authority: 20 U.S...

34 CFR 403.60 - What are the basic programs?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... 34 Education 3 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false What are the basic programs? 403.60 Section 403.60... ADULT EDUCATION, DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION STATE VOCATIONAL AND APPLIED TECHNOLOGY EDUCATION PROGRAM What... Vocational Education Programs. (f) Postsecondary and Adult Vocational Education Programs. (Authority: 20 U.S...

34 CFR 403.60 - What are the basic programs?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... 34 Education 3 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false What are the basic programs? 403.60 Section 403.60... ADULT EDUCATION, DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION STATE VOCATIONAL AND APPLIED TECHNOLOGY EDUCATION PROGRAM What... Vocational Education Programs. (f) Postsecondary and Adult Vocational Education Programs. (Authority: 20 U.S...

The influence of surface versus free-air decoupling on temperature trend patterns in the western United States

Treesearch

N.C. Pepin; C. Daly; J. Lundquist

2011-01-01

We analyzed temperature trends from 460 GHCNv2 weather stations in the western United States for 1948¨C2006 to determine whether the extent of decoupling of surface temperatures from the free atmosphere influences past change. At each location we derived monthly indices representative of anticyclonicity using NCEP/NCAR 700 hPa reanalysis pressure fields. The number of...

PERFORMANCE AND DIAGNOSTIC EVALUATION OF OZONE PREDICTIONS BY THE ETA-COMMUNITY MULTISCALE AIR QUALITY FORECAST SYSTEM DURING THE 2002 NEW ENGLAND AIR QUALITY STUDY

EPA Science Inventory

A real-time air quality forecasting system (Eta-CMAQ model suite) has been developed by linking the NCEP Eta model to the U.S. EPA CMAQ model. This work presents results from the application of the Eta-CMAQ modeling system for forecasting O₃ over the northeastern U.S d...

A study on large-scale nudging effects in regional climate model simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yhang, Yoo-Bin; Hong, Song-You

2011-05-01

The large-scale nudging effects on the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) are examined using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Spectral Model (RSM). The NCEP/DOE reanalysis data is used to provide large-scale forcings for RSM simulations, configured with an approximately 50-km grid over East Asia, centered on the Korean peninsula. The RSM with a variant of spectral nudging, that is, the scale selective bias correction (SSBC), is forced by perfect boundary conditions during the summers (June-July-August) from 1979 to 2004. The two summers of 2000 and 2004 are investigated to demonstrate the impact of SSBC on precipitation in detail. It is found that the effect of SSBC on the simulated seasonal precipitation is in general neutral without a discernible advantage. Although errors in large-scale circulation for both 2000 and 2004 are reduced by using the SSBC method, the impact on simulated precipitation is found to be negative in 2000 and positive in 2004 summers. One possible reason for a different effect is that precipitation in the summer of 2004 is characterized by a strong baroclinicity, while precipitation in 2000 is caused by thermodynamic instability. The reduction of convective rainfall over the oceans by the application of the SSBC method seems to play an important role in modeled atmosphere.

Comparative study of Arctic sea ice response from NEMO-LIM3 to two different atmospheric forcings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Massonnet, Francois; Fichefet, Thierry; Goosse, Hugues; Mathiot, Pierre; König Beatty, Christof; Vancoppenolle, Martin

2010-05-01

Sea ice plays a key role within the climate system as it is, e.g., an efficient barrier to transfers of heat, mass and momentum between atmosphere and ocean. In order to simulate the observed sea ice state, global Ocean General Circulation Models (OGCMs) must benefit from good quality atmospheric forcings. NEMO-LIM3 is one of those OGCMs. This model results from the coupling of the sea ice model LIM3 with the ocean model OPA. So far, the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis dataset (2-m atmospheric temperatures and 10-m wind speeds) has been used jointly with monthly climatologies of relative humidity, cloudiness and precipitation to set up and calibrate NEMO-LIM3. Clear biases in model outputs have been tentatively attributed to this forcing. Here, we investigate the consequences of using the ERA-40-based DFS4 forcing on an ORCA1 configuration (1° resolution), with focus on the Arctic sea ice. Using an adequate metric, we measure the discrepancies between the simulations resulting from the respective forcings. A particular attention is paid to the sea ice features along Siberia at the beginning of the 80s, as previous NEMO-LIM3 runs with the NCEP/NCAR forcing exhibit a significant overestimation of ice extent in this area during this time period.

The Prevalence of Metabolic Syndrome and Its Components among People with Type 2 Diabetes in the Ho Municipality, Ghana: A Cross-Sectional Study

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

The cooccurrence of diabetes mellitus and metabolic syndrome potentiates the cardiovascular risk associated with each of the conditions; therefore characterizing metabolic syndrome among people with type 2 diabetes is beneficial for the purpose of cardiovascular disease prevention. This study aims at evaluating the prevalence of metabolic syndrome and its components among 162 patients with type 2 diabetes attending the diabetic clinic of the Ho Municipal Hospital, Ghana. Data obtained included anthropometric indices, blood pressure, serum lipids, glucose, and sociodemographics and clinical information. The overall prevalence of metabolic syndrome among the study population was 43.83%, 63.58%, and 69.14% using the NCEP-ATP III, the WHO, and the IDF criteria, respectively. The most predominant component among the study population was high blood pressure using the NCEP-ATP III (108 (66.67%)) and WHO (102 (62.96)) criteria and abdominal obesity (112 (69.14%)) for IDF criteria. High blood pressure was the most prevalent component among the males while abdominal obesity was the principal component among the females. In this population with type 2 diabetes, high prevalence of metabolic syndrome exists. Gender vulnerability to metabolic syndrome and multiple cluster components were skewed towards the female subpopulation with type 2 diabetes. PMID:28293668

34 CFR 655.1 - Which programs do these regulations govern?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... International Research and Studies Program (section 605); and (e) The Business and International Education... POSTSECONDARY EDUCATION, DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION INTERNATIONAL EDUCATION PROGRAMS-GENERAL PROVISIONS General... administration of the following programs in international education: (a) The National Resource Centers Program...

34 CFR 655.1 - Which programs do these regulations govern?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... International Research and Studies Program (section 605); and (e) The Business and International Education... POSTSECONDARY EDUCATION, DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION INTERNATIONAL EDUCATION PROGRAMS-GENERAL PROVISIONS General... administration of the following programs in international education: (a) The National Resource Centers Program...

The evolution of optics education at the U.S. National Optical Astronomy Observatory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pompea, Stephen M.; Walker, Constance E.; Sparks, Robert T.

2014-07-01

The last decade of optics education at the U.S. National Optical Astronomy Observatory will be described in terms of program planning, assessment of community needs, identification of networks and strategic partners, the establishment of specific program goals and objectives, and program metrics and evaluation. A number of NOAO's optics education programs for formal and informal audiences will be described, including our Hands-On Optics program, illumination engineering/dark skies energy education programs, afterschool programs, adaptive optics education program, student outreach, and Galileoscope program. Particular emphasis will be placed on techniques for funding and sustaining high-quality programs. The use of educational gap analysis to identify the key needs of the formal and informal educational systems will be emphasized as a technique that has helped us to maximize our educational program effectiveness locally, regionally, nationally, and in Chile.

A Gender-Stratified Comparative Analysis of Various Definitions of Metabolic Syndrome and Cardiovascular Risk in a Multiethnic U.S. Population

PubMed Central

Hari, Pawan; Nerusu, Kamalakar; Veeranna, Vikas; Sudhakar, Rajeev; Zalawadiya, Sandip; Ramesh, Krithi

2012-01-01

Abstract Introduction We sought to evaluate the ability of various metabolic syndrome definitions in predicting primary cardiovascular disease (CVD) outcomes in a vast multiethnic U.S. cohort. Methods This study included 6,814 self-identified men and women aged 45–84 years enrolled in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) study. Gender-stratified analyses were performed to calculate hazard ratios of CVD, stroke, and mortality associated with various metabolic syndrome definitions and their individual constructs. Results The hazard ratios [95% confidence interval (CI)] for all-cause CVD in men were 2.90 (2.18–3.85), 2.64 (1.98–3.51), 2.16 (1.62–2.88), 2.56 (1.91–3.44), 1.82 (1.35–2.46), and 2.92 (2.15–3.95) for the National Cholesterol Education Program (NCEP), American Heart Association (AHA), World Health Organization (WHO), International Diabetes Federation (IDF), European Group for the Study of Insulin Resistance (EGIR), and the newly defined consensus criteria. Hazard ratios in women were 2.11 (1.41–3.15), 2.17 (1.45–3.27), 2.04 (1.37–3.06), 1.91 (1.27–2.88), 1.85 (1.23–2.79), and 2.08 (1.37–3.14), respectively. Metabolic syndrome was strongly associated with stroke risk only in males. In men, all constitutive metabolic syndrome components were continuously and strongly associated with CVD. In women, high-density lipoprotein and triglycerides did not appear to be associated with short term CVD risk. Conclusion We found the newly defined consensus criteria for metabolic syndrome to be similarly predictive of cardiovascular events when compared to existing definitions. Significant gender differences exist in the association between metabolic syndrome, its individual components, and CVD. PMID:21999397

Black Hispanics have a worse cardiovascular risk profile than mixed Hispanics in Venezuela.

PubMed

Ryder, Elena; Silva, Eglee; Sulbarán, Tulio; Fernández, Virginia; Campos, Gilberto; Calmon, Gustavo; Clavell, Emilio; Raleigh, Xiomara; Florez, Hermes

2007-03-01

In order to characterize components of the metabolic syndrome (MS) in Venezuelan black Hispanics and compare these metabolic abnormalities with those found in the predominant mixed Hispanic population, 2336 mixed Hispanics (69% women) and 281 black Hispanics (60% women), aged 20-78 years, without prior history of diabetes and/or cardiovascular disease were evaluated in a population-based study in Zulia State, Venezuela. Blood pressure (BP), waist circumference, as well as fasting insulin, fasting blood glucose (FBG), triglycerides (TG) and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) levels were measured. The criteria proposed by the National Cholesterol Education Program/Adult Treatment Panel III (NCEP/ATP III) to identify those with metabolic abnormalities were used. We found that black Hispanics showed higher frequency of age-adjusted elevated BP than mixed Hispanics in both men (66.9% vs. 52.3%, p < 0.01) and women (39.3% vs. 30.4%, p < 0.05). In men, elevated FBG was also more frequent in black Hispanics (32.7%) than in mixed Hispanics (22.3%), despite the lack of significant differences in fasting insulin, HOMA-insulin resistance and HOMA-beta cell function values. In women low HDL-C and higher abdominal obesity were more common in black Hispanics (71.8% and 54.1%, respectively) than in mixed Hispanics (56.2% and 44.5%, respectively), despite the greater frequency of high TG in mixed Hispanics (22.6%) when compared to black Hispanics (13.3%). Furthermore, in logistic regression analysis black Hispanic race was independently associated with higher risk for hypertension, fasting hyperglycemia, and low HDL-C. These results suggest that black Hispanics have worse cardiovascular risk profile than mixed Hispanics in Zulia State, with higher BP, higher FBG, more abdominal obesity, and lower HDL-C. Identification and intervention of these high-risk subjects are important strategies for diabetes and cardiovascular disease prevention in Venezuela.

Prevalence and risk factors associated with the metabolic syndrome and dyslipidemia in White, Black, Amerindian and Mixed Hispanics in Zulia State, Venezuela.

PubMed

Florez, Hermes; Silva, Eglé; Fernández, Virginia; Ryder, Elena; Sulbarán, Tulio; Campos, Gilberto; Calmón, Gustavo; Clavel, Emilio; Castillo-Florez, Sumaya; Goldberg, Ronald

2005-07-01

Studies have highlighted the association between insulin resistance (IR) and several cardiovascular (CV) risk factors, including hypertension (HTN), obesity, dyslipidemia (i.e. high triglyceride and low HDL-cholesterol) and glucose intolerance, in a cluster known as the metabolic syndrome (MS). There are few data on the frequency of the MS and dyslipidemia in developing countries, and none in South America. To estimate the prevalence of the MS and its components in Zulia State, Venezuela, and to establish associated demographic and clinical factors, we evaluated 3108 Hispanic men and women aged 20 years or older from a cross-sectional survey of a random representative sample from each health district in Zulia State, Venezuela (1999-2001). Prevalence of the MS and dyslipidemia was defined according to the National Cholesterol Education Program (NCEP)/Adult Treatment Panel III (ATP III) criteria. The age-adjusted prevalence of MS and dyslipidemia was 31.2% and 24.1%, respectively, with higher rates in men than in women. Prevalence rates increased with age and with the degree of obesity. MS prevalence was lower in Amerindian (17.%) compared to Black (27.2%), White (33.3%) and Mixed (37.4%) men, but no differences were found among women. Overall, low HDL-cholesterol (65.3%), abdominal obesity (42.9%) and HTN (38.1%) were the most frequent MS components. After adjusting for age, sex and race groups, family history of diabetes, obesity and HTN were associated with the MS. Sedentary lifestyle also increased the risk of MS, event after adjusting for the same covariates, obesity and the degree of IR. These results suggest that MS is found in approximately one-third of the Venezuelan adult population in Zulia State, with higher prevalence in men related to the presence of dyslipidemia. Lifestyle interventions in MS subjects are needed in Venezuela to halt the burden of CV disease and diabetes.

Comparison between the Framingham and prospective cardiovascular of Münster scores for risk assessment of coronary heart disease in human immunodeficiency virus-positive patients in Pernambuco, Brazil.

PubMed

Barros, Zoraya Medeiros; de Alencar Ximenes, Ricardo Arraes; Miranda-Filho, Demócrito Barros; de Albuquerque, Maria de Fátima Pessoa Militão; Melo, Heloísa Ramos Lacerda; Carvalho, Erico Higino; Gelenske, Thais; Diniz, George; Bandeira, Francisco

2010-12-01

The Framingham score is used in most studies on human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-positive patients to estimate the risk for coronary heart disease; however, it may have some limitations for detecting risk among these individuals. The aim of this study was to evaluate the agreement between the Framingham and Prospective Cardiovascular of Münster (PROCAM) scores among HIV-positive individuals and to investigate the factors associated with disagreement between the two scores. A cross-sectional study was conducted in a population of HIV/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) patients attending the outpatient's clinics of two reference centers for HIV/AIDS in Pernambuco, Brazil. Agreement between the Framingham and PROCAM scores was evaluated using the kappa index. From this analysis, a variable called "disagreement between scores" was created, and univariate and multivariate analysis were performed to investigate the factors associated with this variable. The prevalence of low, moderate, and high risk were, respectively, 78.7%, 13.5%, and 7.8% by Framingham score and 88.5%, 4.3%, and 7.2% by PROCAM (kappa = 0.64, P ≤ 0.0001). Agreement in the subgroup with metabolic syndrome by the International Diabetes Federation (IDF) (kappa = 0.51, P ≤ 0.0001) and the National Cholesterol Education Program (NCEP) (kappa = 0.59, P ≤ 0.0001) criteria was moderate. The Framingham score identified greater proportion of women with moderate risk. Factors independently associated with disagreement were: smoking, sex, age, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, diastolic blood pressure, and metabolic syndrome. There was a good agreement between the Framingham and PROCAM scores in HIV-positive patients, but a higher proportion of moderate-high risk was identified by the Framingham score. This disagreement should be evaluated in cohort studies to observe clinical outcomes over the course of time.

Prevalence of metabolic syndrome in Brazilian adults: a systematic review

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background The metabolic syndrome (MS) is a complex of risk factors for cardiovascular disease. This syndrome increases the risk of diabetes, cardiovascular disease and all-cause mortality. It has been demonstrated that the prevalence of MS is increasing worldwide. Despite the importance of MS in the context of metabolic and cardiovascular disease, few studies have described the prevalence of MS and its determinants in Latin America. The present study aims to assess studies describing the prevalence of MS in Brazil in order to determine the global prevalence of the syndrome and its components. Methods Systematic review. Searches were carried out in PubMed and Scielo from the earliest available online indexing year through May 2013. There were no restrictions on language. The search terms used to describe MS were taken from the PubMed (MeSH) dictionary: “metabolic syndrome x”, “prevalence” and “Brazil”. Studies were included if they were cross-sectional, described the prevalence of MS and were conducted in apparently healthy subjects, from the general population, 19-64 years old (adult and middle aged) of both genders. The titles and abstracts of all the articles identified were screened for eligibility. Results Ten cross-sectional studies were selected. The weighted mean for general prevalence of MS in Brazil was 29.6% (range: 14.9%-65.3%). Half of the studies used the criteria for clinical diagnosis of MS proposed by the National Cholesterol Education Program Adult Treatment Panel III (NCEP-ATP III) (2001). The highest prevalence of MS (65.3%) was found in a study conducted in an indigenous population, whereas the lowest prevalence of MS (14.9%) was reported in a rural area. The most frequent MS components were low HDL-cholesterol (59.3%) and hypertension (52.5%). Conclusions Despite methodological differences among the studies selected, our findings suggested a high prevalence of MS in the Brazilian adult population. PMID:24350922

Metabolic Syndrome is Associated With Higher Wall Motion Score and Larger Infarct Size After Acute Myocardial Infarction

PubMed Central

Hajsadeghi, Shokoufeh; Chitsazan, Mitra; Chitsazan, Mandana; Haghjoo, Majid; Babaali, Nima; Norouzzadeh, Zahra; Mohsenian, Maryam

2015-01-01

Background: Infarct size is an important surrogate end point for early and late mortality after acute myocardial infarction. Despite the high prevalence of metabolic syndrome in patients with atherosclerotic diseases, adequate data are still lacking regarding the extent of myocardial necrosis after acute myocardial infarction in these patients. Objectives: In the present study we aimed to compare myocardial infarction size in patients with metabolic syndrome to those without metabolic syndrome using peak CK-MB and cardiac troponin I (cTnI) at 72 hours after the onset of symptoms. Patients and Methods: One-hundred patients with metabolic syndrome (group I) and 100 control subjects without metabolic syndrome (group II) who experienced acute myocardial infarction were included in the study. Diagnosis of metabolic syndrome was based on the National Cholesterol Education Program Adult Treatment Panel III (NCEP ATP III) guidelines published in 2001. Myocardial infarction size was compared between the two groups of patients using peak CK-MB and cTnI level in 72 hours after the onset of symptoms. Results: Peak CK-MB and cTnI in 72 hours were found to be significantly higher in patients with metabolic syndrome compared with control subjects (both P < 0.001). Patients with metabolic syndrome also had markedly higher wall motion abnormality at 72 hours after the onset of symptoms as assessed by echocardiographically-derived Wall Motion Score Index (WMSI) (P < 0.001). Moreover, statistically significant relationships were found between WMSI and peak CK-MB and also cTnI at 72 hours (Spearman's rho = 0.56, P < 0.001 and Spearman's rho = 0.5, P < 0.001; respectively). However, association between WMSI and left ventricular ejection fraction was insignificant (Spearman's rho = -0.05, P = 0.46). Conclusions: We showed that patients with metabolic syndrome have larger infarct size compared to control subjects. PMID:25789257

Stanford GEMS phase 2 obesity prevention trial for low-income African-American girls: design and sample baseline characteristics.

PubMed

Robinson, Thomas N; Kraemer, Helena C; Matheson, Donna M; Obarzanek, Eva; Wilson, Darrell M; Haskell, William L; Pruitt, Leslie A; Thompson, Nikko S; Haydel, K Farish; Fujimoto, Michelle; Varady, Ann; McCarthy, Sally; Watanabe, Connie; Killen, Joel D

2008-01-01

African-American girls and women are at high risk of obesity and its associated morbidities. Few studies have tested obesity prevention strategies specifically designed for African-American girls. This report describes the design and baseline findings of the Stanford GEMS (Girls health Enrichment Multi-site Studies) trial to test the effect of a two-year community- and family-based intervention to reduce weight gain in low-income, pre-adolescent African-American girls. Randomized controlled trial with measurements scheduled in girls' homes at baseline, 6, 12, 18 and 24 month post-randomization. Low-income areas of Oakland, CA. Eight, nine and ten year old African-American girls and their parents/caregivers. Girls are randomized to a culturally-tailored after-school dance program and a home/family-based intervention to reduce screen media use versus an information-based community health education Active-Placebo Comparison intervention. Interventions last for 2 years for each participant. Change in body mass index over the two-year study. Recruitment and enrollment successfully produced a predominately low-socioeconomic status sample. Two-hundred sixty one (261) families were randomized. One girl per family is randomly chosen for the analysis sample. Randomization produced comparable experimental groups with only a few statistically significant differences. The sample had a mean body mass index (BMI) at the 74 th percentile on the 2000 CDC BMI reference, and one-third of the analysis sample had a BMI at the 95th percentile or above. Average fasting total cholesterol and LDL cholesterol were above NCEP thresholds for borderline high classifications. Girls averaged low levels of moderate to vigorous physical activity, more than 3 h per day of screen media use, and diets high in energy from fat. The Stanford GEMS trial is testing the benefits of culturally-tailored after-school dance and screen-time reduction interventions for obesity prevention in low-income, pre-adolescent African-American girls.

Reduced Flexibility Associated with Metabolic Syndrome in Community-Dwelling Elders

PubMed Central

Chang, Ke-Vin; Hung, Chen-Yu; Li, Chia-Ming; Lin, Yu-Hung; Wang, Tyng-Guey; Tsai, Keh-Sung; Han, Der-Sheng

2015-01-01

Background The ageing process may lead to reductions in physical fitness, a known risk factor in the development of metabolic syndrome. The purpose of the current study was to evaluate cross-sectional and combined associations of metabolic syndrome with body composition and physical fitness in a community based geriatric population. Methods A total of 628 community-dwelling elders attending a geriatric health examination were enrolled in the study. The diagnosis of metabolic syndrome was based on the modified National Cholesterol Education Program Adult Treatment Panel III (NCEP ATP III) criterion with Asian cutoff of waist girth was adopted in this study. Body composition was obtained using bioimpedance analysis, and physical fitness was evaluated through the measurement of muscle strength (handgrip force), lower extremity muscle endurance (sit-to-stand test), flexibility (sit-and-reach test), and cardiorespiratory endurance (2-minute step test). Multivariable logistic regression and correlation analysis were performed to determine the association of metabolic syndrome with body composition and functionality variables. Results Metabolic syndrome was associated with increased skeletal muscle index (SMI) (odds ratio (OR), 1.61, 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.25–2.07) and decreased flexibility (OR, 0.97, 95% CI, 0.95–0.99) compared with those without metabolic syndrome. When body mass index was accounted for in the analysis, the association of SMI with metabolic syndrome was reduced. Waist circumference was positively correlated with SMI but negatively correlated with flexibility, whereas high density lipoprotein was positively correlated with flexibility but negatively correlated with SMI. Conclusion Reduced flexibility was positively associated with metabolic syndrome independent of age, gender, body composition, and functionality measurements in a community based geriatric population. Significant associations between metabolic syndrome with muscle strength and cardiorespiratory fitness in the elderly were not observed. Furthermore, flexibility should be included in the complete evaluation for metabolic syndrome. PMID:25614984

Trace elements profile is associated with insulin resistance syndrome and oxidative damage in thyroid disorders: Manganese and selenium interest in Algerian participants with dysthyroidism.

PubMed

Maouche, Naima; Meskine, Djamila; Alamir, Barkahoum; Koceir, Elhadj-Ahmed

2015-10-01

The relationship between dysthyroidism and antioxidant trace elements (ATE) status is very subtle during oxidative stress (OS). This relationship is mediated by thyroid hormone (TH) disorder, insulin resistance syndrome (IRS) and inflammation. The aim of this study was to investigate ATE such as selenium (Se), manganese (Mn), zinc (Zn) and copper (Cu) status on thyroid dysfunction, and their interaction with antioxidant enzyme activities, mainly, superoxide dismutase (SOD) and glutathione peroxidase (GPx), TH profile (TSH, T(3), T(4)) and IRS clusters. The study was undertaken on 220 Algerian adults (30-50 years), including 157 women and 63 men who were divided to 4 groups: subclinical hypothyroidism (n = 50), overt hypothyroidism (n = 60), Graves's disease hyperthyroidism (n = 60) and euthyroid controls (n = 50). The IRS was confirmed according to NCEP (National Cholesterol Education Program). Insulin resistance was evaluated by HOMA-IR model. Trace elements were determined by the Flame Atomic Absorption Spectrometry (Flame-AAS) technique. The antioxidant enzymes activity and metabolic parameters were determined by biochemical methods. The TH profile and anti-Thyroperoxidase Antibodies (anti-TPO-Ab) were evaluated by radioimmunoassay. Results showed that the plasma manganese levels were significantly increased in all dysthyroidism groups (p ≤ 0.01). However, the plasma copper and zinc concentrations were maintained normal or not very disturbed vs control group. In contrast, the plasma selenium levels were highly decreased (p ≤ 0.001) and positively correlated with depletion of glutathione peroxidase activity; and associated both with anti-TPO-Ab overexpression and fulminant HS-CRP levels. This study confirms the oxidative stress-inflammation relationship in the dysthyroidism. The thyroid follicles antioxidant protection appears preserved in the cytosol (Cu/Zn-SOD), while it is altered in the mitochondria (Mn-SOD), which gives this cell organelle, a status of real target therapy in thyroid dysfunction. The publisher would like to apologise for any inconvenience caused. [corrected].

34 CFR 403.120 - How does a State reallocate funds under the Secondary School Vocational Education Program and the...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... School Vocational Education Program and the Postsecondary and Adult Vocational Education Programs? 403...) OFFICE OF VOCATIONAL AND ADULT EDUCATION, DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION STATE VOCATIONAL AND APPLIED TECHNOLOGY EDUCATION PROGRAM What Kinds of Activities Does the Secretary Assist Under the Basic Programs? Secondary...

34 CFR 403.120 - How does a State reallocate funds under the Secondary School Vocational Education Program and the...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... School Vocational Education Program and the Postsecondary and Adult Vocational Education Programs? 403...) OFFICE OF VOCATIONAL AND ADULT EDUCATION, DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION STATE VOCATIONAL AND APPLIED TECHNOLOGY EDUCATION PROGRAM What Kinds of Activities Does the Secretary Assist Under the Basic Programs? Secondary...

34 CFR 403.120 - How does a State reallocate funds under the Secondary School Vocational Education Program and the...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... School Vocational Education Program and the Postsecondary and Adult Vocational Education Programs? 403...) OFFICE OF VOCATIONAL AND ADULT EDUCATION, DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION STATE VOCATIONAL AND APPLIED TECHNOLOGY EDUCATION PROGRAM What Kinds of Activities Does the Secretary Assist Under the Basic Programs? Secondary...

34 CFR 403.120 - How does a State reallocate funds under the Secondary School Vocational Education Program and the...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... School Vocational Education Program and the Postsecondary and Adult Vocational Education Programs? 403...) OFFICE OF VOCATIONAL AND ADULT EDUCATION, DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION STATE VOCATIONAL AND APPLIED TECHNOLOGY EDUCATION PROGRAM What Kinds of Activities Does the Secretary Assist Under the Basic Programs? Secondary...

34 CFR 403.120 - How does a State reallocate funds under the Secondary School Vocational Education Program and the...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... School Vocational Education Program and the Postsecondary and Adult Vocational Education Programs? 403...) OFFICE OF VOCATIONAL AND ADULT EDUCATION, DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION STATE VOCATIONAL AND APPLIED TECHNOLOGY EDUCATION PROGRAM What Kinds of Activities Does the Secretary Assist Under the Basic Programs? Secondary...

34 CFR 668.72 - Nature of educational program.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... 34 Education 3 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Nature of educational program. 668.72 Section 668.72... EDUCATION, DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION STUDENT ASSISTANCE GENERAL PROVISIONS Misrepresentation § 668.72 Nature of educational program. Misrepresentation by an institution of the nature of its educational program...

34 CFR 300.23 - Individualized education program team.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... 34 Education 2 2014-07-01 2013-07-01 true Individualized education program team. 300.23 Section 300.23 Education Regulations of the Offices of the Department of Education (Continued) OFFICE OF... education program team. Individualized education program team or IEP Team means a group of individuals...

34 CFR 300.23 - Individualized education program team.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... 34 Education 2 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Individualized education program team. 300.23 Section 300.23 Education Regulations of the Offices of the Department of Education (Continued) OFFICE OF... education program team. Individualized education program team or IEP Team means a group of individuals...

34 CFR 300.23 - Individualized education program team.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... 34 Education 2 2011-07-01 2010-07-01 true Individualized education program team. 300.23 Section 300.23 Education Regulations of the Offices of the Department of Education (Continued) OFFICE OF... education program team. Individualized education program team or IEP Team means a group of individuals...

34 CFR 300.23 - Individualized education program team.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... 34 Education 2 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Individualized education program team. 300.23 Section 300.23 Education Regulations of the Offices of the Department of Education (Continued) OFFICE OF... education program team. Individualized education program team or IEP Team means a group of individuals...

75 FR 29732 - Career and Technical Education Program-Promoting Rigorous Career and Technical Education Programs...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-05-27

... DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION Career and Technical Education Program--Promoting Rigorous Career and Technical Education Programs of Study Catalog of Federal Domestic Assistance (CFDA) Number: 84.051C. AGENCY: Office of Vocational and Adult Education, Department of Education. ACTION: Notice of proposed priorities...

34 CFR 389.1 - What is the Rehabilitation Continuing Education Program?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... 34 Education 2 2011-07-01 2010-07-01 true What is the Rehabilitation Continuing Education Program? 389.1 Section 389.1 Education Regulations of the Offices of the Department of Education (Continued... CONTINUING EDUCATION PROGRAMS General § 389.1 What is the Rehabilitation Continuing Education Program? This...

34 CFR 389.1 - What is the Rehabilitation Continuing Education Program?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... 34 Education 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false What is the Rehabilitation Continuing Education Program? 389.1 Section 389.1 Education Regulations of the Offices of the Department of Education (Continued... CONTINUING EDUCATION PROGRAMS General § 389.1 What is the Rehabilitation Continuing Education Program? This...

34 CFR 400.2 - What programs are governed by these regulations?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... VOCATIONAL AND ADULT EDUCATION, DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION VOCATIONAL AND APPLIED TECHNOLOGY EDUCATION PROGRAMS... apply to the Vocational and Applied Technology Education Programs as follows: (a) State-administered programs. (1) State Vocational and Applied Technology Education Program (34 CFR part 403). (2) State...

22 CFR 146.400 - Education programs or activities.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... 22 Foreign Relations 1 2011-04-01 2011-04-01 false Education programs or activities. 146.400... IN EDUCATION PROGRAMS OR ACTIVITIES RECEIVING FEDERAL FINANCIAL ASSISTANCE Discrimination on the Basis of Sex in Education Programs or Activities Prohibited § 146.400 Education programs or activities...

49 CFR 25.400 - Education programs or activities.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... 49 Transportation 1 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Education programs or activities. 25.400 Section... IN EDUCATION PROGRAMS OR ACTIVITIES RECEIVING FEDERAL FINANCIAL ASSISTANCE Discrimination on the Basis of Sex in Education Programs or Activities Prohibited § 25.400 Education programs or activities...

22 CFR 146.400 - Education programs or activities.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... 22 Foreign Relations 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Education programs or activities. 146.400... IN EDUCATION PROGRAMS OR ACTIVITIES RECEIVING FEDERAL FINANCIAL ASSISTANCE Discrimination on the Basis of Sex in Education Programs or Activities Prohibited § 146.400 Education programs or activities...

49 CFR 25.400 - Education programs or activities.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... 49 Transportation 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Education programs or activities. 25.400 Section... IN EDUCATION PROGRAMS OR ACTIVITIES RECEIVING FEDERAL FINANCIAL ASSISTANCE Discrimination on the Basis of Sex in Education Programs or Activities Prohibited § 25.400 Education programs or activities...

34 CFR 491.1 - What is the Adult Education for the Homeless Program?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... 34 Education 3 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false What is the Adult Education for the Homeless Program...) OFFICE OF VOCATIONAL AND ADULT EDUCATION, DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION ADULT EDUCATION FOR THE HOMELESS PROGRAM General § 491.1 What is the Adult Education for the Homeless Program? The Adult Education for the...

34 CFR 491.1 - What is the Adult Education for the Homeless Program?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... 34 Education 3 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false What is the Adult Education for the Homeless Program...) OFFICE OF VOCATIONAL AND ADULT EDUCATION, DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION ADULT EDUCATION FOR THE HOMELESS PROGRAM General § 491.1 What is the Adult Education for the Homeless Program? The Adult Education for the...

34 CFR 491.1 - What is the Adult Education for the Homeless Program?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... 34 Education 3 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false What is the Adult Education for the Homeless Program...) OFFICE OF VOCATIONAL AND ADULT EDUCATION, DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION ADULT EDUCATION FOR THE HOMELESS PROGRAM General § 491.1 What is the Adult Education for the Homeless Program? The Adult Education for the...

34 CFR 491.1 - What is the Adult Education for the Homeless Program?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... 34 Education 3 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false What is the Adult Education for the Homeless Program...) OFFICE OF VOCATIONAL AND ADULT EDUCATION, DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION ADULT EDUCATION FOR THE HOMELESS PROGRAM General § 491.1 What is the Adult Education for the Homeless Program? The Adult Education for the...

34 CFR 491.1 - What is the Adult Education for the Homeless Program?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... 34 Education 3 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false What is the Adult Education for the Homeless Program...) OFFICE OF VOCATIONAL AND ADULT EDUCATION, DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION ADULT EDUCATION FOR THE HOMELESS PROGRAM General § 491.1 What is the Adult Education for the Homeless Program? The Adult Education for the...

Integrating Program Theory and Systems-Based Procedures in Program Evaluation: A Dynamic Approach to Evaluate Educational Programs

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Grammatikopoulos, Vasilis

2012-01-01

The current study attempts to integrate parts of program theory and systems-based procedures in educational program evaluation. The educational program that was implemented, called the "Early Steps" project, proposed that physical education can contribute to various educational goals apart from the usual motor skills improvement. Basic…

28 CFR 54.400 - Education programs or activities.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... 28 Judicial Administration 2 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Education programs or activities. 54.400... SEX IN EDUCATION PROGRAMS OR ACTIVITIES RECEIVING FEDERAL FINANCIAL ASSISTANCE Discrimination on the Basis of Sex in Education Programs or Activities Prohibited § 54.400 Education programs or activities...

22 CFR 229.400 - Education programs or activities.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... 22 Foreign Relations 1 2011-04-01 2011-04-01 false Education programs or activities. 229.400... SEX IN EDUCATION PROGRAMS OR ACTIVITIES RECEIVING FEDERAL FINANCIAL ASSISTANCE Discrimination on the Basis of Sex in Education Programs or Activities Prohibited § 229.400 Education programs or activities...

41 CFR 101-4.400 - Education programs or activities.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... 41 Public Contracts and Property Management 2 2011-07-01 2007-07-01 true Education programs or... EDUCATION PROGRAMS OR ACTIVITIES RECEIVING FEDERAL FINANCIAL ASSISTANCE Discrimination on the Basis of Sex in Education Programs or Activities Prohibited § 101-4.400 Education programs or activities. (a...

Academic Programs in Alternative Education: An Overview

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ruzzi, Betsy Brown; Kraemer, Jacqueline

2006-01-01

This paper, second in a series of papers on alternative education, examines the academic programming in alternative education programs by reviewing the literature specifically focused on the academic programs in alternative education and summarizing a survey of fifteen alternative education programs. It suggests options for further research on…

University of Maryland MRSEC - Education

Science.gov Websites

Educational Education Pre-College Programs Homeschool Programs Undergraduate & Graduate Programs Teacher : Championing Service-based Education Outreach Since 1996 Program Areas Pre-college Programs Project Lead the , and post-docs effective skills in education outreach at the pre-college level. The UMD-MRSEC uses a

Experiences of Redesigning an Elementary Education Program

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chang, Sau Hou

2016-01-01

This paper aims to share the experiences of redesigning an elementary education program. Steps of redesigning the elementary education program were enumerated. Challenges in the redesign of the elementary education program were discussed. The new elementary education program was described. Lessons learned from the redesign of the elementary…

22 CFR 229.400 - Education programs or activities.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... 22 Foreign Relations 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Education programs or activities. 229.400... SEX IN EDUCATION PROGRAMS OR ACTIVITIES RECEIVING FEDERAL FINANCIAL ASSISTANCE Discrimination on the Basis of Sex in Education Programs or Activities Prohibited § 229.400 Education programs or activities...

10 CFR 1042.400 - Education programs or activities.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 10 Energy 4 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Education programs or activities. 1042.400 Section 1042... EDUCATION PROGRAMS OR ACTIVITIES RECEIVING FEDERAL FINANCIAL ASSISTANCE Discrimination on the Basis of Sex in Education Programs or Activities Prohibited § 1042.400 Education programs or activities. (a...

41 CFR 101-4.400 - Education programs or activities.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... 41 Public Contracts and Property Management 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 true Education programs or... EDUCATION PROGRAMS OR ACTIVITIES RECEIVING FEDERAL FINANCIAL ASSISTANCE Discrimination on the Basis of Sex in Education Programs or Activities Prohibited § 101-4.400 Education programs or activities. (a...

Handling Input and Output for COAMPS

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fitzpatrick, Patrick; Tran, Nam; Li, Yongzuo; Anantharaj, Valentine

2007-01-01

Two suites of software have been developed to handle the input and output of the Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Prediction System (COAMPS), which is a regional atmospheric model developed by the Navy for simulating and predicting weather. Typically, the initial and boundary conditions for COAMPS are provided by a flat-file representation of the Navy s global model. Additional algorithms are needed for running the COAMPS software using global models. One of the present suites satisfies this need for running COAMPS using the Global Forecast System (GFS) model of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The first step in running COAMPS downloading of GFS data from an Internet file-transfer-protocol (FTP) server computer of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) is performed by one of the programs (SSC-00273) in this suite. The GFS data, which are in gridded binary (GRIB) format, are then changed to a COAMPS-compatible format by another program in the suite (SSC-00278). Once a forecast is complete, still another program in the suite (SSC-00274) sends the output data to a different server computer. The second suite of software (SSC- 00275) addresses the need to ingest up-to-date land-use-and-land-cover (LULC) data into COAMPS for use in specifying typical climatological values of such surface parameters as albedo, aerodynamic roughness, and ground wetness. This suite includes (1) a program to process LULC data derived from observations by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instruments aboard NASA s Terra and Aqua satellites, (2) programs to derive new climatological parameters for the 17-land-use-category MODIS data; and (3) a modified version of a FORTRAN subroutine to be used by COAMPS. The MODIS data files are processed to reformat them into a compressed American Standard Code for Information Interchange (ASCII) format used by COAMPS for efficient processing.

Evaluating Transient Global and Regional Model Simulations: Bridging the Model/Observations Information Gap

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rutledge, G. K.; Karl, T. R.; Easterling, D. R.; Buja, L.; Stouffer, R.; Alpert, J.

2001-05-01

A major transition in our ability to evaluate transient Global Climate Model (GCM) simulations is occurring. Real-time and retrospective numerical weather prediction analysis, model runs, climate simulations and assessments are proliferating from a handful of national centers to dozens of groups across the world. It is clear that it is no longer sufficient for any one national center to develop its data services alone. The comparison of transient GCM results with the observational climate record is difficult for several reasons. One limitation is that the global distributions of a number of basic climate quantities, such as precipitation, are not well known. Similarly, observational limitations exist with model re-analysis data. Both the NCEP/NCAR, and the ECMWF, re-analysis eliminate the problems of changing analysis systems but observational data also contain time-dependant biases. These changes in input data are blended with the natural variability making estimates of true variability uncertain. The need for data homogeneity is critical to study questions related to the ability to evaluate simulation of past climate. One approach to correct for time-dependant biases and data sparse regions is the development and use of high quality 'reference' data sets. The primary U.S. National responsibility for the archive and service of weather and climate data rests with the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). However, as supercomputers increase the temporal and spatial resolution of both Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) and GCM models, the volume and varied formats of data presented for archive at NCDC, using current communications technologies and data management techniques is limiting the scientific access of these data. To address this ever expanding need for climate and NWP information, NCDC along with the National Center's for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) have initiated the NOAA Operational Model Archive and Distribution System (NOMADS). NOMADS is a collaboration between the Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere studies (COLA); the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL); the George Mason University (GMU); the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR); the NCDC; NCEP; the Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory (PMEL); and the University of Washington. The objective of the NOMADS is to preserve and provide retrospective access to GCM's and reference quality long-term observational and high volume three dimensional data as well as NCEP NWP models and re-start and re-analysis information. The creation of the NOMADS features a data distribution, format independent, methodology enabling scientific collaboration between researchers. The NOMADS configuration will allow a researcher to transparently browse, extract and intercompare retrospective observational and model data products from any of the participating centers. NOMADS will provide the ability to easily initialize and compare the results of ongoing climate model assessments and NWP output. Beyond the ingest and access capability soon to be implemented with NOMADS is the challenge of algorithm development for the inter-comparison of large-array data (e.g., satellite and radar) with surface, upper-air, and sub-surface ocean observational data. The implementation of NOMADS should foster the development of new quality control processes by taking advantage of distributed data access.

University of Maryland MRSEC - Education: PreCollege

Science.gov Websites

Educational Education Pre-College Programs Homeschool Programs Undergraduate & Graduate Programs Teacher MRSEC Templates Opportunities Search Home » Education » Pre-College Programs Pre-College Programs Pre

Advancing Drought Understanding, Monitoring and Prediction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mariotti, Annarita; Schubert, Siegfried D.; Mo, Kingtse; Peters-Lidard, Christa; Wood, Andy; Pulwarty, Roger; Huang, Jin; Barrie, Dan

2013-01-01

Having the capacity to monitor droughts in near-real time and providing accurate drought prediction from weeks to seasons in advance can greatly reduce the severity of social and economic damage caused by drought, a leading natural hazard for North America. The congressional mandate to establish the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS; Public Law 109-430) in 2006 was a major impulse to develop, integrate, and provide drought information to meet the challenges posed by this hazard. Significant progress has been made on many fronts. On the research front, efforts by the broad scientific community have resulted in improved understanding of North American droughts and improved monitoring and forecasting tools. We now have a better understanding of the droughts of the twentieth century including the 1930s "Dust Bowl"; we have developed a broader array of tools and datasets that enhance the official North American Drought Monitor based on different methodologies such as state-of-the-art land surface modeling (e.g., the North American Land Data Assimilation System) and remote sensing (e.g., the evaporative stress index) to better characterize the occurrence and severity of drought in its multiple manifestations. In addition, we have new tools for drought prediction [including the new National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System, version 2, for operational prediction and an experimental National Multimodel Ensemble] and have explored diverse methodologies including ensemble hydrologic prediction approaches. Broad NIDIS-inspired progress is influencing the development of a Global Drought Information System (GDIS) under the auspices of the World Climate Research Program. Despite these advances, current drought monitoring and forecasting capabilities still fall short of users' needs, especially the need for skillful and reliable drought forecasts at regional and local scales. To tackle this outstanding challenging problem, focused and coordinated research efforts are needed, drawing from excellence across the broad drought research community. To meet this challenge, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)'s Drought Task Force was established in October 2011 with the ambitious goal of achieving significant new advances in the ability to understand, monitor, and predict drought over North America. The Task Force (duration of October 2011-September 2014) is an initiative of NOAA's Climate Program Office Modeling, Analysis, Predictions, and Projections (MAPP) program in partnership with NIDIS. It brings together over 30 leading MAPP-funded drought scientists from multiple academic and federal institutions [involves scientists from NOAA's research laboratories and centers, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), U.S. Department of Agriculture, National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), and many universities] in a concerted research effort that builds on individual MAPP research projects. These projects span the wide spectrum of drought research needed to make fundamental advances, from those aimed at the basic understanding of drought mechanisms to those aimed at testing new drought monitoring and prediction tools for operational and service purposes (as part of NCEP's Climate Test Bed). The Drought Task Force provides focus and coordination to MAPP drought research activities and also facilitates synergies with other national and international drought research efforts, including those by the GDIS.

34 CFR 403.112 - How does a State allocate funds under the Secondary School Vocational Education Program to local...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... School Vocational Education Program to local educational agencies? 403.112 Section 403.112 Education..., DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION STATE VOCATIONAL AND APPLIED TECHNOLOGY EDUCATION PROGRAM What Kinds of Activities... Program to local educational agencies? (a) Reservation of funds. From the portion of its allotment under...

Careers in the U.S. Department of Education: Education Program Specialist.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Horace Mann Learning Center (ED), Washington, DC.

Education program specialists in the United States Department of Education establish and lead the education program, policies, and activities for which the Department of Education is responsible under law. This brochure provides information about the job of education program specialist, describing how the specialists fit into the department's…

38 CFR 21.7112 - Programs of education combining two or more types of courses.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... 38 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief 2 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Programs of education... DEPARTMENT OF VETERANS AFFAIRS (CONTINUED) VOCATIONAL REHABILITATION AND EDUCATION All Volunteer Force Educational Assistance Program (Montgomery GI Bill-Active Duty) Programs of Education § 21.7112 Programs of...

38 CFR 21.7112 - Programs of education combining two or more types of courses.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... 38 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief 2 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Programs of education... DEPARTMENT OF VETERANS AFFAIRS (CONTINUED) VOCATIONAL REHABILITATION AND EDUCATION All Volunteer Force Educational Assistance Program (Montgomery GI Bill-Active Duty) Programs of Education § 21.7112 Programs of...

38 CFR 21.7112 - Programs of education combining two or more types of courses.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... 38 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief 2 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Programs of education... DEPARTMENT OF VETERANS AFFAIRS (CONTINUED) VOCATIONAL REHABILITATION AND EDUCATION All Volunteer Force Educational Assistance Program (Montgomery GI Bill-Active Duty) Programs of Education § 21.7112 Programs of...

38 CFR 21.7112 - Programs of education combining two or more types of courses.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... 38 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Programs of education... DEPARTMENT OF VETERANS AFFAIRS (CONTINUED) VOCATIONAL REHABILITATION AND EDUCATION All Volunteer Force Educational Assistance Program (Montgomery GI Bill-Active Duty) Programs of Education § 21.7112 Programs of...

38 CFR 21.7112 - Programs of education combining two or more types of courses.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... 38 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief 2 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Programs of education... DEPARTMENT OF VETERANS AFFAIRS (CONTINUED) VOCATIONAL REHABILITATION AND EDUCATION All Volunteer Force Educational Assistance Program (Montgomery GI Bill-Active Duty) Programs of Education § 21.7112 Programs of...

18 CFR 1317.400 - Education programs or activities.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2011-04-01 2011-04-01 false Education programs or... NONDISCRIMINATION ON THE BASIS OF SEX IN EDUCATION PROGRAMS OR ACTIVITIES RECEIVING FEDERAL FINANCIAL ASSISTANCE Discrimination on the Basis of Sex in Education Programs or Activities Prohibited § 1317.400 Education programs...

40 CFR 5.400 - Education programs or activities.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 1 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Education programs or activities. 5.400... BASIS OF SEX IN EDUCATION PROGRAMS OR ACTIVITIES RECEIVING FEDERAL FINANCIAL ASSISTANCE Discrimination on the Basis of Sex in Education Programs or Activities Prohibited § 5.400 Education programs or...

14 CFR 1253.400 - Education programs or activities.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... 14 Aeronautics and Space 5 2011-01-01 2010-01-01 true Education programs or activities. 1253.400... THE BASIS OF SEX IN EDUCATION PROGRAMS OR ACTIVITIES RECEIVING FEDERAL FINANCIAL ASSISTANCE Discrimination on the Basis of Sex in Education Programs or Activities Prohibited § 1253.400 Education programs...

43 CFR 41.400 - Education programs or activities.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... 43 Public Lands: Interior 1 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Education programs or activities. 41.400... BASIS OF SEX IN EDUCATION PROGRAMS OR ACTIVITIES RECEIVING FEDERAL FINANCIAL ASSISTANCE Discrimination on the Basis of Sex in Education Programs or Activities Prohibited § 41.400 Education programs or...

45 CFR 86.31 - Education programs or activities.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... 45 Public Welfare 1 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Education programs or activities. 86.31 Section 86... THE BASIS OF SEX IN EDUCATION PROGRAMS OR ACTIVITIES RECEIVING FEDERAL FINANCIAL ASSISTANCE Discrimination on the Basis of Sex in Education Programs or Activities Prohibited § 86.31 Education programs or...

6 CFR 17.400 - Education programs or activities.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... 6 Domestic Security 1 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Education programs or activities. 17.400 Section... ON THE BASIS OF SEX IN EDUCATION PROGRAMS OR ACTIVITIES RECEIVING FEDERAL FINANCIAL ASSISTANCE Discrimination on the Basis of Sex in Education Programs or Activities Prohibited § 17.400 Education programs or...

31 CFR 28.400 - Education programs or activities.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... 31 Money and Finance: Treasury 1 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Education programs or activities. 28... NONDISCRIMINATION ON THE BASIS OF SEX IN EDUCATION PROGRAMS OR ACTIVITIES RECEIVING FEDERAL FINANCIAL ASSISTANCE Discrimination on the Basis of Sex in Education Programs or Activities Prohibited § 28.400 Education programs or...

34 CFR 200.80 - Migrant Education Even Start Program definition.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... 34 Education 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Migrant Education Even Start Program definition. 200.80... DISADVANTAGED Even Start Family Literacy Program § 200.80 Migrant Education Even Start Program definition. Eligible participants under the Migrant Education Even Start Program (MEES) must meet the definitions of a...

14 CFR 1253.400 - Education programs or activities.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 14 Aeronautics and Space 5 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Education programs or activities. 1253.400... THE BASIS OF SEX IN EDUCATION PROGRAMS OR ACTIVITIES RECEIVING FEDERAL FINANCIAL ASSISTANCE Discrimination on the Basis of Sex in Education Programs or Activities Prohibited § 1253.400 Education programs...

18 CFR 1317.400 - Education programs or activities.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Education programs or... NONDISCRIMINATION ON THE BASIS OF SEX IN EDUCATION PROGRAMS OR ACTIVITIES RECEIVING FEDERAL FINANCIAL ASSISTANCE Discrimination on the Basis of Sex in Education Programs or Activities Prohibited § 1317.400 Education programs...

45 CFR 618.400 - Education programs or activities.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... 45 Public Welfare 3 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Education programs or activities. 618.400 Section... NONDISCRIMINATION ON THE BASIS OF SEX IN EDUCATION PROGRAMS OR ACTIVITIES RECEIVING FEDERAL FINANCIAL ASSISTANCE Discrimination on the Basis of Sex in Education Programs or Activities Prohibited § 618.400 Education programs or...

31 CFR 28.400 - Education programs or activities.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... 31 Money and Finance: Treasury 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Education programs or activities. 28... NONDISCRIMINATION ON THE BASIS OF SEX IN EDUCATION PROGRAMS OR ACTIVITIES RECEIVING FEDERAL FINANCIAL ASSISTANCE Discrimination on the Basis of Sex in Education Programs or Activities Prohibited § 28.400 Education programs or...

6 CFR 17.400 - Education programs or activities.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 6 Domestic Security 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Education programs or activities. 17.400 Section... ON THE BASIS OF SEX IN EDUCATION PROGRAMS OR ACTIVITIES RECEIVING FEDERAL FINANCIAL ASSISTANCE Discrimination on the Basis of Sex in Education Programs or Activities Prohibited § 17.400 Education programs or...

78 FR 47419 - Requirements for the OSHA Training Institute Education Centers Program and the OSHA Outreach...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-08-05

...] Requirements for the OSHA Training Institute Education Centers Program and the OSHA Outreach Training Program... approval of the information collection requirements contained in the OSHA Training Institute Education... Educational Programs, or Kimberly Mason, OSHA Training Institute Education Centers Program at the address...

Greater Use of Exemplary Education Programs Could Improve Education for Disadvantaged Children.

DTIC Science & Technology

1981-09-15

The Congress OF THE UNITED STATES Greater Use Of Exemplary Education Pograms Could Improve Education for Disadvantaged Children. Although low...report discusses the potential for improving education for disadvantaged children through greater use of exemplary education programs available through the...EXEMPLARY EDUCATION REPORT TO THE CONGRESS PROGRAMS COULD IMPROVE EDUCATION FOR DISADVANTAGED CHILDREN DIGEST Federal programs for elementary and

Energy and technology review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnson, K. C.

1991-04-01

This issue of Energy and Technology Review discusses the various educational programs in which Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) participates or sponsors. LLNL has a long history of fostering educational programs for students from kindergarten through graduate school. A goal is to enhance the teaching of science, mathematics, and technology and thereby assist educational institutions to increase the pool of scientists, engineers, and technicians. LLNL programs described include: (1) contributions to the improvement of U.S. science education; (2) the LESSON program; (3) collaborations with Bay Area Science and Technology Education; (4) project HOPES; (5) lasers and fusion energy education; (6) a curriculum on global climate change; (7) computer and technology instruction at LLNL's Science Education Center; (8) the National Education Supercomputer Program; (9) project STAR; (10) the American Indian Program; (11) LLNL programs with historically Black colleges and Universities; (12) the Undergraduate Summer Institute on Contemporary Topics in Applied Science; (13) the National Physical Science Consortium: A Fellowship Program for Minorities and Women; (14) LLNL's participation with AWU; (15) the apprenticeship programs at LLNL; and (16) the future of LLNL's educational programs. An appendix lists all of LLNL's educational programs and activities. Contacts and their respective telephone numbers are given for all these programs and activities.

38 CFR 21.7110 - Selection of a program of education.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... education. 21.7110 Section 21.7110 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief DEPARTMENT OF VETERANS AFFAIRS (CONTINUED) VOCATIONAL REHABILITATION AND EDUCATION All Volunteer Force Educational Assistance Program (Montgomery GI Bill-Active Duty) Programs of Education § 21.7110 Selection of a program of education. (a...