Does climate directly influence NPP globally?

PubMed

Chu, Chengjin; Bartlett, Megan; Wang, Youshi; He, Fangliang; Weiner, Jacob; Chave, Jérôme; Sack, Lawren

2016-01-01

The need for rigorous analyses of climate impacts has never been more crucial. Current textbooks state that climate directly influences ecosystem annual net primary productivity (NPP), emphasizing the urgent need to monitor the impacts of climate change. A recent paper challenged this consensus, arguing, based on an analysis of NPP for 1247 woody plant communities across global climate gradients, that temperature and precipitation have negligible direct effects on NPP and only perhaps have indirect effects by constraining total stand biomass (Mtot ) and stand age (a). The authors of that study concluded that the length of the growing season (lgs ) might have a minor influence on NPP, an effect they considered not to be directly related to climate. In this article, we describe flaws that affected that study's conclusions and present novel analyses to disentangle the effects of stand variables and climate in determining NPP. We re-analyzed the same database to partition the direct and indirect effects of climate on NPP, using three approaches: maximum-likelihood model selection, independent-effects analysis, and structural equation modeling. These new analyses showed that about half of the global variation in NPP could be explained by Mtot combined with climate variables and supported strong and direct influences of climate independently of Mtot , both for NPP and for net biomass change averaged across the known lifetime of the stands (ABC = average biomass change). We show that lgs is an important climate variable, intrinsically correlated with, and contributing to mean annual temperature and precipitation (Tann and Pann ), all important climatic drivers of NPP. Our analyses provide guidance for statistical and mechanistic analyses of climate drivers of ecosystem processes for predictive modeling and provide novel evidence supporting the strong, direct role of climate in determining vegetation productivity at the global scale. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Ocean-Atmosphere Interactions Modulate Irrigation's Climate Impacts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Krakauer, Nir Y.; Puma, Michael J.; Cook, Benjamin I.; Gentine, Pierre; Nazarenko, Larissa

2016-01-01

Numerous studies have focused on the local and regional climate effects of irrigated agriculture and other land cover and land use change (LCLUC) phenomena, but there are few studies on the role of ocean- atmosphere interaction in modulating irrigation climate impacts. Here, we compare simulations with and without interactive sea surface temperatures of the equilibrium effect on climate of contemporary (year 2000) irrigation geographic extent and intensity. We find that ocean-atmosphere interaction does impact the magnitude of global-mean and spatially varying climate impacts, greatly increasing their global reach. Local climate effects in the irrigated regions remain broadly similar, while non-local effects, particularly over the oceans, tend to be larger. The interaction amplifies irrigation-driven standing wave patterns in the tropics and mid-latitudes in our simulations, approximately doubling the global-mean amplitude of surface temperature changes due to irrigation. The fractions of global area experiencing significant annual-mean surface air temperature and precipitation change also approximately double with ocean-atmosphere interaction. Subject to confirmation with other models, these findings imply that LCLUC is an important contributor to climate change even in remote areas such as the Southern Ocean, and that attribution studies should include interactive oceans and need to consider LCLUC, including irrigation, as a truly global forcing that affects climate and the water cycle over ocean as well as land areas.

Global analysis of the effect of local climate on the hatchling output of leatherback turtles.

PubMed

Santidrián Tomillo, Pilar; Saba, Vincent S; Lombard, Claudia D; Valiulis, Jennifer M; Robinson, Nathan J; Paladino, Frank V; Spotila, James R; Fernández, Carlos; Rivas, Marga L; Tucek, Jenny; Nel, Ronel; Oro, Daniel

2015-11-17

The most recent climate change projections show a global increase in temperatures along with precipitation changes throughout the 21(st) century. However, regional projections do not always match global projections and species with global distributions may exhibit varying regional susceptibility to climate change. Here we show the effect of local climatic conditions on the hatchling output of leatherback turtles (Dermochelys coriacea) at four nesting sites encompassing the Pacific, Atlantic and Indian Oceans. We found a heterogeneous effect of climate. Hatchling output increased with long-term precipitation in areas with dry climatic conditions (Playa Grande, Pacific Ocean and Sandy Point, Caribbean Sea), but the effect varied in areas where precipitation was high (Pacuare, Caribbean Sea) and was not detected at the temperate site (Maputaland, Indian Ocean). High air temperature reduced hatchling output only at the area experiencing seasonal droughts (Playa Grande). Climatic projections showed a drastic increase in air temperature and a mild decrease in precipitation at all sites by 2100. The most unfavorable conditions were projected for Sandy Point where hatching success has already declined over time along with precipitation levels. The heterogeneous effect of climate may lead to local extinctions of leatherback turtles in some areas but survival in others by 2100.

Global analysis of the effect of local climate on the hatchling output of leatherback turtles

PubMed Central

Santidrián Tomillo, Pilar; Saba, Vincent S.; Lombard, Claudia D.; Valiulis, Jennifer M.; Robinson, Nathan J.; Paladino, Frank V.; Spotila, James R.; Fernández, Carlos; Rivas, Marga L.; Tucek, Jenny; Nel, Ronel; Oro, Daniel

2015-01-01

The most recent climate change projections show a global increase in temperatures along with precipitation changes throughout the 21st century. However, regional projections do not always match global projections and species with global distributions may exhibit varying regional susceptibility to climate change. Here we show the effect of local climatic conditions on the hatchling output of leatherback turtles (Dermochelys coriacea) at four nesting sites encompassing the Pacific, Atlantic and Indian Oceans. We found a heterogeneous effect of climate. Hatchling output increased with long-term precipitation in areas with dry climatic conditions (Playa Grande, Pacific Ocean and Sandy Point, Caribbean Sea), but the effect varied in areas where precipitation was high (Pacuare, Caribbean Sea) and was not detected at the temperate site (Maputaland, Indian Ocean). High air temperature reduced hatchling output only at the area experiencing seasonal droughts (Playa Grande). Climatic projections showed a drastic increase in air temperature and a mild decrease in precipitation at all sites by 2100. The most unfavorable conditions were projected for Sandy Point where hatching success has already declined over time along with precipitation levels. The heterogeneous effect of climate may lead to local extinctions of leatherback turtles in some areas but survival in others by 2100. PMID:26572897

Global analysis of the effect of local climate on the hatchling output of leatherback turtles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santidrián Tomillo, Pilar; Saba, Vincent S.; Lombard, Claudia D.; Valiulis, Jennifer M.; Robinson, Nathan J.; Paladino, Frank V.; Spotila, James R.; Fernández, Carlos; Rivas, Marga L.; Tucek, Jenny; Nel, Ronel; Oro, Daniel

2015-11-01

The most recent climate change projections show a global increase in temperatures along with precipitation changes throughout the 21st century. However, regional projections do not always match global projections and species with global distributions may exhibit varying regional susceptibility to climate change. Here we show the effect of local climatic conditions on the hatchling output of leatherback turtles (Dermochelys coriacea) at four nesting sites encompassing the Pacific, Atlantic and Indian Oceans. We found a heterogeneous effect of climate. Hatchling output increased with long-term precipitation in areas with dry climatic conditions (Playa Grande, Pacific Ocean and Sandy Point, Caribbean Sea), but the effect varied in areas where precipitation was high (Pacuare, Caribbean Sea) and was not detected at the temperate site (Maputaland, Indian Ocean). High air temperature reduced hatchling output only at the area experiencing seasonal droughts (Playa Grande). Climatic projections showed a drastic increase in air temperature and a mild decrease in precipitation at all sites by 2100. The most unfavorable conditions were projected for Sandy Point where hatching success has already declined over time along with precipitation levels. The heterogeneous effect of climate may lead to local extinctions of leatherback turtles in some areas but survival in others by 2100.

Regional Climate Impacts of Stabilizing Global Warming at 1.5 K Using Solar Geoengineering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, Anthony C.; Hawcroft, Matthew K.; Haywood, James M.; Jones, Andy; Guo, Xiaoran; Moore, John C.

2018-02-01

The 2015 Paris Agreement aims to limit global warming to well below 2 K above preindustrial levels, and to pursue efforts to limit global warming to 1.5 K, in order to avert dangerous climate change. However, current greenhouse gas emissions targets are more compatible with scenarios exhibiting end-of-century global warming of 2.6-3.1 K, in clear contradiction to the 1.5 K target. In this study, we use a global climate model to investigate the climatic impacts of using solar geoengineering by stratospheric aerosol injection to stabilize global-mean temperature at 1.5 K for the duration of the 21st century against three scenarios spanning the range of plausible greenhouse gas mitigation pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5). In addition to stabilizing global mean temperature and offsetting both Arctic sea-ice loss and thermosteric sea-level rise, we find that solar geoengineering could effectively counteract enhancements to the frequency of extreme storms in the North Atlantic and heatwaves in Europe, but would be less effective at counteracting hydrological changes in the Amazon basin and North Atlantic storm track displacement. In summary, solar geoengineering may reduce global mean impacts but is an imperfect solution at the regional level, where the effects of climate change are experienced. Our results should galvanize research into the regionality of climate responses to solar geoengineering.

Climate Change Education: Goals, Audiences, and Strategies--A Workshop Summary

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Forest, Sherrie; Feder, Michael A.

2011-01-01

The global scientific and policy community now unequivocally accepts that human activities cause global climate change. Although information on climate change is readily available, the nation still seems unprepared or unwilling to respond effectively to climate change, due partly to a general lack of public understanding of climate change issues…

Effect of global climate on termites population. Effect of termites population on global climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sapunov, Valentin

2010-05-01

The global climate is under control of factors having both earth and space origin. Global warming took place from XVII century till 1997. Then global cold snap began. This dynamics had effect on global distribution of some animals including termites. Direct human effect on climate is not significant. At the same time man plays role of trigger switching on significant biosphere processes controlling climate. The transformation of marginal lands, development of industry and building, stimulated increase of termite niche and population. Termite role in green house gases production increases too. It may have regular effect on world climate. The dry wood is substrate for metabolism of termites living under symbiosis with bacteria Hypermastigina (Flagellata). The use of dry wood by humanity increased from 18 *108 ton in XVIII to 9*109 to the middle of XX century. Then use of wood decreased because of a new technology development. Hence termite population is controlled by microevolution depending on dry wood and climate dynamics. Producing by them green house gases had reciprocal effect on world climate. It is possible to describe and predict dynamic of termite population using methods of mathematical ecology and analogs with other well studied insects (Colorado potatoes beetle, Chrisomelid beetle Zygogramma and so on). Reclamation of new ecological niche for such insects as termites needs 70 - 75 years. That is delay of population dynamics in relation to dynamics of dry wood production. General principles of population growth were described by G.Gause (1934) and some authors of the end of XX century. This works and analogs with other insects suggest model of termite distribution during XXI century. The extremum of population and its green house gases production would be gotten during 8 - 10 years. Then the number of specimens and sum biological mass would be stabilized and decreased. Termite gas production is not priority for climate regulation, but it has importance as fine regulator of global temperature and climate stability. Key words: termites, green house gases, mathematical modeling. Union symposia Biogeoscience BG2.1

Biophysical effects on temperature and precipitation due to land cover change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perugini, Lucia; Caporaso, Luca; Marconi, Sergio; Cescatti, Alessandro; Quesada, Benjamin; de Noblet-Ducoudré, Nathalie; House, Johanna I.; Arneth, Almut

2017-05-01

Anthropogenic land cover changes (LCC) affect regional and global climate through biophysical variations of the surface energy budget mediated by albedo, evapotranspiration, and roughness. This change in surface energy budget may exacerbate or counteract biogeochemical greenhouse gas effects of LCC, with a large body of emerging assessments being produced, sometimes apparently contradictory. We reviewed the existing scientific literature with the objective to provide an overview of the state-of-the-knowledge of the biophysical LCC climate effects, in support of the assessment of mitigation/adaptation land policies. Out of the published studies that were analyzed, 28 papers fulfilled the eligibility criteria, providing surface air temperature and/or precipitation change with respect to LCC regionally and/or globally. We provide a synthesis of the signal, magnitude and uncertainty of temperature and precipitation changes in response to LCC biophysical effects by climate region (boreal/temperate/tropical) and by key land cover transitions. Model results indicate that a modification of biophysical processes at the land surface has a strong regional climate effect, and non-negligible global impact on temperature. Simulations experiments of large-scale (i.e. complete) regional deforestation lead to a mean reduction in precipitation in all regions, while air surface temperature increases in the tropics and decreases in boreal regions. The net global climate effects of regional deforestation are less certain. There is an overall consensus in the model experiments that the average global biophysical climate response to complete global deforestation is atmospheric cooling and drying. Observed estimates of temperature change following deforestation indicate a smaller effect than model-based regional estimates in boreal regions, comparable results in the tropics, and contrasting results in temperate regions. Regional/local biophysical effects following LCC are important for local climate, water cycle, ecosystems, their productivity and biodiversity, and thus important to consider in the formulation of adaptation policy. However before considering the inclusion of biophysical climate effects of LCC under the UNFCCC, science has to provide robust tools and methods for estimation of both country and global level effects.

The effects of variable biome distribution on global climate.

PubMed

Noever, D A; Brittain, A; Matsos, H C; Baskaran, S; Obenhuber, D

1996-01-01

In projecting climatic adjustments to anthropogenically elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide, most global climate models fix biome distribution to current geographic conditions. Previous biome maps either remain unchanging or shift without taking into account climatic feedbacks such as radiation and temperature. We develop a model that examines the albedo-related effects of biome distribution on global temperature. The model was tested on historical biome changes since 1860 and the results fit both the observed temperature trend and order of magnitude change. The model is then used to generate an optimized future biome distribution that minimizes projected greenhouse effects on global temperature. Because of the complexity of this combinatorial search, an artificial intelligence method, the genetic algorithm, was employed. The method is to adjust biome areas subject to a constant global temperature and total surface area constraint. For regulating global temperature, oceans are found to dominate continental biomes. Algal beds are significant radiative levers as are other carbon intensive biomes including estuaries and tropical deciduous forests. To hold global temperature constant over the next 70 years this simulation requires that deserts decrease and forested areas increase. The effect of biome change on global temperature is revealed as a significant forecasting factor.

RELATIVE EFFECTS OF OBSERVATIONALLY-NUDGED MODEL METEOROLOGY AND DOWN-SCALED GLOBAL CLIMATE MODEL METEOROLOGY ON BIOGENIC EMISSIONS FOR THE UNITED STATES

EPA Science Inventory

The United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) participate in a multi-agency examination of the effects of climate change through the U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP, 2003). The EPA Global Change Rese...

Global climate change and vector-borne diseases

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ginsberg, H.S.

2002-01-01

Global warming will have different effects on different diseases because of the complex and idiosynchratic interactions between vectors, hosts, and pathogens that influence transmission dynamics of each pathogen. Human activities, including urbanization, rapid global travel, and vector management, have profound effects on disease transmission that can operate on more rapid time scales than does global climate change. The general concern about global warming encouraging the spread of tropical diseases is legitimate, but the effects vary among diseases, and the ecological implications are difficult to predict.

Improving the effectiveness of communication about climate science: Insights from the "Global Warming's Six Americas" audience segmentation research project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maibach, E.; Roser-Renouf, C.

2011-12-01

That the climate science community has not been entirely effective in sharing what it knows about climate change with the broader public - and with policy makers and organizations that should be considering climate change when making decisions - is obvious. Our research shows that a large majority of the American public trusts scientists (76%) and science-based agencies (e.g., 76% trust NOAA) as sources of information about climate change. Yet, despite the widespread agreement in the climate science community that the climate is changing as a result of human activity, only 64% of the public understand that the world's average temperature has been increasing (and only about half of them are sure), less than half (47%) understand that the warming is caused mostly by human activity, and only 39% understand that most scientists think global warming is happening (in fact, only 13% understand that the large majority of climate scientists think global warming is happening). Less obvious is what the climate science community should do to become more effective in sharing what it knows. In this paper, we will use evidence from our "Global Warming's Six Americas" audience segmentation research project to suggest ways that individual climate scientists -- and perhaps more importantly, ways in which climate science agencies and professional societies -- can enhance the effectiveness of their communication efforts. We will conclude by challenging members of the climate science community to identify and convey "simple, clear messages, repeated often, by a variety of trusted sources" - an approach to communication repeatedly shown to be effective by the public health community.

Climatic change and wildland recreation: Examining the changing patterns of wilderness recreation in response to the effects of global climate change and the El Nino phenomenon

Treesearch

Vinod Sasidharan

2000-01-01

Impacts of global climate change on the biophysical components of wilderness areas have the potential to alter their recreational utility of wilderness areas. Concomitantly, the frequency and patterns of both land-based and water-based wilderness recreation activities will be affected. Despite the difficulty of responding to the unclear dimensions of global climate...

Global and Arctic climate engineering: numerical model studies.

PubMed

Caldeira, Ken; Wood, Lowell

2008-11-13

We perform numerical simulations of the atmosphere, sea ice and upper ocean to examine possible effects of diminishing incoming solar radiation, insolation, on the climate system. We simulate both global and Arctic climate engineering in idealized scenarios in which insolation is diminished above the top of the atmosphere. We consider the Arctic scenarios because climate change is manifesting most strongly there. Our results indicate that, while such simple insolation modulation is unlikely to perfectly reverse the effects of greenhouse gas warming, over a broad range of measures considering both temperature and water, an engineered high CO2 climate can be made much more similar to the low CO2 climate than would be a high CO2 climate in the absence of such engineering. At high latitudes, there is less sunlight deflected per unit albedo change but climate system feedbacks operate more powerfully there. These two effects largely cancel each other, making the global mean temperature response per unit top-of-atmosphere albedo change relatively insensitive to latitude. Implementing insolation modulation appears to be feasible.

A global conservation system for climate-change adaptation.

PubMed

Hannah, Lee

2010-02-01

Climate change has created the need for a new strategic framework for conservation. This framework needs to include new protected areas that account for species range shifts and management that addresses large-scale change across international borders. Actions within the framework must be effective in international waters and across political frontiers and have the ability to accommodate large income and ability-to-pay discrepancies between countries. A global protected-area system responds to these needs. A fully implemented global system of protected areas will help in the transition to a new conservation paradigm robust to climate change and will ensure the integrity of the climate services provided by carbon sequestration from the world's natural habitats. The internationally coordinated response to climate change afforded by such a system could have significant cost savings relative to a system of climate adaptation that unfolds solely at a country level. Implementation of a global system is needed very soon because the effects of climate change on species and ecosystems are already well underway.

Effects of fire and CO2 on biogeography and primary production in glacial and modern climates.

PubMed

Martin Calvo, Maria; Prentice, Iain Colin

2015-11-01

Dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) can disentangle causes and effects in the control of vegetation and fire. We used a DGVM to analyse climate, CO2 and fire influences on biome distribution and net primary production (NPP) in last glacial maximum (LGM) and pre-industrial (PI) times. The Land surface Processes and eXchanges (LPX) DGVM was run in a factorial design with fire 'off' or 'on', CO2 at LGM (185 ppm) or PI (280 ppm) concentrations, and LGM (modelled) or recent climates. Results were analysed by Stein-Alpert decomposition to separate primary effects from synergies. Fire removal causes forests to expand and global NPP to increase slightly. Low CO2 greatly reduces forest area (dramatically in a PI climate; realistically under an LGM climate) and global NPP. NPP under an LGM climate was reduced by a quarter as a result of low CO2 . The reduction in global NPP was smaller at low temperatures, but greater in the presence of fire. Global NPP is controlled by climate and CO2 directly through photosynthesis, but also through biome distribution, which is strongly influenced by fire. Future vegetation simulations will need to consider the coupled responses of vegetation and fire to CO2 and climate. © 2015 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2015 New Phytologist Trust.

Mechanistic Toxicology in the Face of Global Climate Change

EPA Science Inventory

To incorporate effects of global climate change (GCC) into regulatory assessments of chemical risk, damage and restoration needs, an understanding is needed of GCC effects on mechanisms of chemical toxicity and the implications of those effects when placed in context with GCC eff...

Public health impact of global heating due to climate change: potential effects on chronic non-communicable diseases.

PubMed

Kjellstrom, Tord; Butler, Ainslie J; Lucas, Robyn M; Bonita, Ruth

2010-04-01

Several categories of ill health important at the global level are likely to be affected by climate change. To date the focus of this association has been on communicable diseases and injuries. This paper briefly analyzes potential impacts of global climate change on chronic non-communicable diseases (NCDs). We reviewed the limited available evidence of the relationships between climate exposure and chronic and NCDs. We further reviewed likely mechanisms and pathways for climatic influences on chronic disease occurrence and impacts on pre-existing chronic diseases. There are negative impacts of climatic factors and climate change on some physiological functions and on cardio-vascular and kidney diseases. Chronic disease risks are likely to increase with climate change and related increase in air pollution, malnutrition, and extreme weather events. There are substantial research gaps in this arena. The health sector has a major role in facilitating further research and monitoring the health impacts of global climate change. Such work will also contribute to global efforts for the prevention and control of chronic NCDs in our ageing and urbanizing global population.

Braking effect of climate and topography on global change-induced upslope forest expansion.

PubMed

Alatalo, Juha M; Ferrarini, Alessandro

2017-03-01

Forests are expected to expand into alpine areas due to global climate change. It has recently been shown that temperature alone cannot realistically explain this process and that upslope tree advance in a warmer scenario may depend on the availability of sites with adequate geomorphic/topographic characteristics. Here, we show that, besides topography (slope and aspect), climate itself can produce a braking effect on the upslope advance of subalpine forests and that tree limit is influenced by non-linear and non-monotonic contributions of the climate variables which act upon treeline upslope advance with varying relative strengths. Our results suggest that global climate change impact on the upslope advance of subalpine forests should be interpreted in a more complex way where climate can both speed up and slow down the process depending on complex patterns of contribution from each climate and non-climate variable.

Global Climate Change: Threat Multiplier for AFRICOM?

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-11-06

climate change , stability for Africa hinges upon mitigating the effects of global climate change to prevent future conflicts such as Darfur, and the...instability that fosters terrorism. The National Security Act of 2010 will formally address climate change and the planning requirement for the threat...of Responsibility (AOR). He will need to integrate multinational and multiagency cooperation to address climate change forecasts. The author

Global climate change and children's health: threats and strategies for prevention.

PubMed

Sheffield, Perry E; Landrigan, Philip J

2011-03-01

Global climate change will have multiple effects on human health. Vulnerable populations-children, the elderly, and the poor-will be disproportionately affected. We reviewed projected impacts of climate change on children's health, the pathways involved in these effects, and prevention strategies. We assessed primary studies, review articles, and organizational reports. Climate change is increasing the global burden of disease and in the year 2000 was responsible for > 150,000 deaths worldwide. Of this disease burden, 88% fell upon children. Documented health effects include changing ranges of vector-borne diseases such as malaria and dengue; increased diarrheal and respiratory disease; increased morbidity and mortality from extreme weather; changed exposures to toxic chemicals; worsened poverty; food and physical insecurity; and threats to human habitation. Heat-related health effects for which research is emerging include diminished school performance, increased rates of pregnancy complications, and renal effects. Stark variation in these outcomes is evident by geographic region and socioeconomic status, and these impacts will exacerbate health disparities. Prevention strategies to reduce health impacts of climate change include reduction of greenhouse gas emissions and adaptation through multiple public health interventions. Further quantification of the effects of climate change on children's health is needed globally and also at regional and local levels through enhanced monitoring of children's environmental health and by tracking selected indicators. Climate change preparedness strategies need to be incorporated into public health programs.

The effects of variable biome distribution on global climate

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Noever, D.A.; Brittain, A.; Matsos, H.C.

1996-12-31

In projecting climatic adjustments to anthropogenically elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide, most global climate models fix biome distribution to current geographic conditions. The authors develop a model that examines the albedo-related effects of biome distribution on global temperature. The model was tested on historical biome changes since 1860 and the results fit both the observed trend and order of magnitude change in global temperature. Once backtested in this way on historical data, the model is then used to generate an optimized future biome distribution which minimizes projected greenhouse effects on global temperature. Because of the complexity of this combinatorial search anmore » artificial intelligence method, the genetic algorithm, was employed. The genetic algorithm assigns various biome distributions to the planet, then adjusts their percentage area and albedo effects to regulate or moderate temperature changes.« less

Volcanism, global catastrophe and mass mortality

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Francis, P. W.; Burke, K.

1988-01-01

The effects of very large volcanic eruptions are well documented in many studies, mostly based on observations made on three historic eruptions, Laki 1783; Tambora 1815 and Krakatau 1883. Such eruptions have effects that are catastrophic locally and measurable globally, but it is not clear that even the largest volcanic eruptions have had global catastrophic effects, nor caused mass extinctions. Two different types of volcanic eruption were considered as likely to have the most serious widespread effects: large silicic explosive eruptions producing hundreds or thousands of cubic kilometers of pyroclastic materials, and effusive basaltic eruptions producing of approximately 100 cubic kilometers of lava. In both cases, the global effects are climatic, and attributable to production of stratospheric aerosols. Other possibilities need to be explored. Recent research on global change has emphasized the extreme sensitivity of the links between oceanic circulation, atmospheric circulation and climate. In particular, it was argued that the pattern of ocean current circulation (which strongly influences climate) is unstable; it may rapidly flip from one pattern to a different one, with global climatic consequences. If volcanism has been a factor in global environmental change and a cause of mass extinctions, it seems most likely that it has done so by providing a trigger to other processes, for example by driving oceanic circulation from one mode to another.

Global forest sector modeling: application to some impacts of climate change

Treesearch

Joseph Buongiorno

2016-01-01

This paper explored the potential long-term effects of a warming climate on the global wood sector, based on Way and Oren's synthesis (Tree Physiology 30,669-688) indicating positive responses of tree growth to higher temperature in boreal and temperative climates, and negative responses in the topics. Changes in forest productivity were introduced in the Global...

Assessing climate change impacts, benefits of mitigation, and uncertainties on major global forest regions under multiple socioeconomic and emissions scenarios

DOE PAGES

Kim, John B.; Monier, Erwan; Sohngen, Brent; ...

2017-03-28

We analyze a set of simulations to assess the impact of climate change on global forests where MC2 dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) was run with climate simulations from the MIT Integrated Global System Model-Community Atmosphere Model (IGSM-CAM) modeling framework. The core study relies on an ensemble of climate simulations under two emissions scenarios: a business-as-usual reference scenario (REF) analogous to the IPCC RCP8.5 scenario, and a greenhouse gas mitigation scenario, called POL3.7, which is in between the IPCC RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios, and is consistent with a 2 °C global mean warming from pre-industrial by 2100. Evaluating the outcomesmore » of both climate change scenarios in the MC2 model shows that the carbon stocks of most forests around the world increased, with the greatest gains in tropical forest regions. Temperate forest regions are projected to see strong increases in productivity offset by carbon loss to fire. The greatest cost of mitigation in terms of effects on forest carbon stocks are projected to be borne by regions in the southern hemisphere. We compare three sources of uncertainty in climate change impacts on the world’s forests: emissions scenarios, the global system climate response (i.e. climate sensitivity), and natural variability. The role of natural variability on changes in forest carbon and net primary productivity (NPP) is small, but it is substantial for impacts of wildfire. Forest productivity under the REF scenario benefits substantially from the CO 2 fertilization effect and that higher warming alone does not necessarily increase global forest carbon levels. Finally, our analysis underlines why using an ensemble of climate simulations is necessary to derive robust estimates of the benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation. It also demonstrates that constraining estimates of climate sensitivity and advancing our understanding of CO 2 fertilization effects may considerably reduce the range of projections.« less

Assessing climate change impacts, benefits of mitigation, and uncertainties on major global forest regions under multiple socioeconomic and emissions scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, John B.; Monier, Erwan; Sohngen, Brent; Pitts, G. Stephen; Drapek, Ray; McFarland, James; Ohrel, Sara; Cole, Jefferson

2017-04-01

We analyze a set of simulations to assess the impact of climate change on global forests where MC2 dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) was run with climate simulations from the MIT Integrated Global System Model-Community Atmosphere Model (IGSM-CAM) modeling framework. The core study relies on an ensemble of climate simulations under two emissions scenarios: a business-as-usual reference scenario (REF) analogous to the IPCC RCP8.5 scenario, and a greenhouse gas mitigation scenario, called POL3.7, which is in between the IPCC RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios, and is consistent with a 2 °C global mean warming from pre-industrial by 2100. Evaluating the outcomes of both climate change scenarios in the MC2 model shows that the carbon stocks of most forests around the world increased, with the greatest gains in tropical forest regions. Temperate forest regions are projected to see strong increases in productivity offset by carbon loss to fire. The greatest cost of mitigation in terms of effects on forest carbon stocks are projected to be borne by regions in the southern hemisphere. We compare three sources of uncertainty in climate change impacts on the world’s forests: emissions scenarios, the global system climate response (i.e. climate sensitivity), and natural variability. The role of natural variability on changes in forest carbon and net primary productivity (NPP) is small, but it is substantial for impacts of wildfire. Forest productivity under the REF scenario benefits substantially from the CO2 fertilization effect and that higher warming alone does not necessarily increase global forest carbon levels. Our analysis underlines why using an ensemble of climate simulations is necessary to derive robust estimates of the benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation. It also demonstrates that constraining estimates of climate sensitivity and advancing our understanding of CO2 fertilization effects may considerably reduce the range of projections.

Assessing climate change impacts, benefits of mitigation, and uncertainties on major global forest regions under multiple socioeconomic and emissions scenarios

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kim, John B.; Monier, Erwan; Sohngen, Brent

We analyze a set of simulations to assess the impact of climate change on global forests where MC2 dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) was run with climate simulations from the MIT Integrated Global System Model-Community Atmosphere Model (IGSM-CAM) modeling framework. The core study relies on an ensemble of climate simulations under two emissions scenarios: a business-as-usual reference scenario (REF) analogous to the IPCC RCP8.5 scenario, and a greenhouse gas mitigation scenario, called POL3.7, which is in between the IPCC RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios, and is consistent with a 2 °C global mean warming from pre-industrial by 2100. Evaluating the outcomesmore » of both climate change scenarios in the MC2 model shows that the carbon stocks of most forests around the world increased, with the greatest gains in tropical forest regions. Temperate forest regions are projected to see strong increases in productivity offset by carbon loss to fire. The greatest cost of mitigation in terms of effects on forest carbon stocks are projected to be borne by regions in the southern hemisphere. We compare three sources of uncertainty in climate change impacts on the world’s forests: emissions scenarios, the global system climate response (i.e. climate sensitivity), and natural variability. The role of natural variability on changes in forest carbon and net primary productivity (NPP) is small, but it is substantial for impacts of wildfire. Forest productivity under the REF scenario benefits substantially from the CO 2 fertilization effect and that higher warming alone does not necessarily increase global forest carbon levels. Finally, our analysis underlines why using an ensemble of climate simulations is necessary to derive robust estimates of the benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation. It also demonstrates that constraining estimates of climate sensitivity and advancing our understanding of CO 2 fertilization effects may considerably reduce the range of projections.« less

Effects of geoengineering on crop yields

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pongratz, J.; Lobell, D. B.; Cao, L.; Caldeira, K.

2011-12-01

The potential of "solar radiation management" (SRM) to reduce future climate change and associated risks has been receiving significant attention in scientific and policy circles. SRM schemes aim to reduce global warming despite increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations by diminishing the amount of solar insolation absorbed by the Earth, for example, by injecting scattering aerosols into the atmosphere. Climate models predict that SRM could fully compensate warming at the global mean in a high-CO2 world. While reduction of global warming may offset a part of the predicted negative effects of future climate change on crop yields, SRM schemes are expected to alter regional climate and to have substantial effects on climate variables other than temperature, such as precipitation. It has therefore been warned that, overall, SRM may pose a risk to food security. Assessments of benefits and risks of geoengineering are imperative, yet such assessments are only beginning to emerge; in particular, effects on global food security have not previously been assessed. Here, for the first time, we combine climate model simulations with models of crop yield responses to climate to assess large-scale changes in yields and food production under SRM. In most crop-growing regions, we find that yield losses caused by climate changes are substantially reduced under SRM as compared with a non-geoengineered doubling of atmospheric CO2. Substantial yield losses with SRM are only found for rice in high latitudes, where the limits of low temperatures are no longer alleviated. At the same time, the beneficial effect of CO2-fertilization on plant productivity remains active. Overall therefore, SRM in our models causes global crop yields to increase. We estimate the direct effects of climate and CO2 changes on crop production, and do not quantify effects of market dynamics and management changes. We note, however, that an SRM deployment would be unlikely to maintain the economic status quo, as market shares of agricultural output may change with the different spatial pattern of climate change. More importantly, geoengineering by SRM does not address a range of other detrimental consequences of climate change, such as ocean acidification, which could also affect food security via effects on marine food webs. Finally, SRM poses substantial anticipated and unanticipated risks by interfering with complex, not fully understood systems. Therefore, despite potential positive effects of SRM on crop yields, the most certain way to reduce climate risks to global food security is to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases.

Energy, atmospheric chemistry, and global climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Levine, Joel S.

1991-01-01

Global atmospheric changes due to ozone destruction and the greenhouse effect are discussed. The work of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is reviewed, including its judgements regarding global warming and its recommendations for improving predictive capability. The chemistry of ozone destruction and the global atmospheric budget of nitrous oxide are reviewed, and the global sources of nitrous oxide are described.

Combined climate and carbon-cycle effects of large-scale deforestation

PubMed Central

Bala, G.; Caldeira, K.; Wickett, M.; Phillips, T. J.; Lobell, D. B.; Delire, C.; Mirin, A.

2007-01-01

The prevention of deforestation and promotion of afforestation have often been cited as strategies to slow global warming. Deforestation releases CO2 to the atmosphere, which exerts a warming influence on Earth's climate. However, biophysical effects of deforestation, which include changes in land surface albedo, evapotranspiration, and cloud cover also affect climate. Here we present results from several large-scale deforestation experiments performed with a three-dimensional coupled global carbon-cycle and climate model. These simulations were performed by using a fully three-dimensional model representing physical and biogeochemical interactions among land, atmosphere, and ocean. We find that global-scale deforestation has a net cooling influence on Earth's climate, because the warming carbon-cycle effects of deforestation are overwhelmed by the net cooling associated with changes in albedo and evapotranspiration. Latitude-specific deforestation experiments indicate that afforestation projects in the tropics would be clearly beneficial in mitigating global-scale warming, but would be counterproductive if implemented at high latitudes and would offer only marginal benefits in temperate regions. Although these results question the efficacy of mid- and high-latitude afforestation projects for climate mitigation, forests remain environmentally valuable resources for many reasons unrelated to climate. PMID:17420463

Combined climate and carbon-cycle effects of large-scale deforestation.

PubMed

Bala, G; Caldeira, K; Wickett, M; Phillips, T J; Lobell, D B; Delire, C; Mirin, A

2007-04-17

The prevention of deforestation and promotion of afforestation have often been cited as strategies to slow global warming. Deforestation releases CO(2) to the atmosphere, which exerts a warming influence on Earth's climate. However, biophysical effects of deforestation, which include changes in land surface albedo, evapotranspiration, and cloud cover also affect climate. Here we present results from several large-scale deforestation experiments performed with a three-dimensional coupled global carbon-cycle and climate model. These simulations were performed by using a fully three-dimensional model representing physical and biogeochemical interactions among land, atmosphere, and ocean. We find that global-scale deforestation has a net cooling influence on Earth's climate, because the warming carbon-cycle effects of deforestation are overwhelmed by the net cooling associated with changes in albedo and evapotranspiration. Latitude-specific deforestation experiments indicate that afforestation projects in the tropics would be clearly beneficial in mitigating global-scale warming, but would be counterproductive if implemented at high latitudes and would offer only marginal benefits in temperate regions. Although these results question the efficacy of mid- and high-latitude afforestation projects for climate mitigation, forests remain environmentally valuable resources for many reasons unrelated to climate.

Combined Climate and Carbon-Cycle Effects of Large-Scale Deforestation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bala, G; Caldeira, K; Wickett, M

2006-10-17

The prevention of deforestation and promotion of afforestation have often been cited as strategies to slow global warming. Deforestation releases CO{sub 2} to the atmosphere, which exerts a warming influence on Earth's climate. However, biophysical effects of deforestation, which include changes in land surface albedo, evapotranspiration, and cloud cover also affect climate. Here we present results from several large-scale deforestation experiments performed with a three-dimensional coupled global carbon-cycle and climate model. These are the first such simulations performed using a fully three-dimensional model representing physical and biogeochemical interactions among land, atmosphere, and ocean. We find that global-scale deforestation has amore » net cooling influence on Earth's climate, since the warming carbon-cycle effects of deforestation are overwhelmed by the net cooling associated with changes in albedo and evapotranspiration. Latitude-specific deforestation experiments indicate that afforestation projects in the tropics would be clearly beneficial in mitigating global-scale warming, but would be counterproductive if implemented at high latitudes and would offer only marginal benefits in temperate regions. While these results question the efficacy of mid- and high-latitude afforestation projects for climate mitigation, forests remain environmentally valuable resources for many reasons unrelated to climate.« less

The neurobiology of climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Donnell, Sean

2018-02-01

Directional climate change (global warming) is causing rapid alterations in animals' environments. Because the nervous system is at the forefront of animals' interactions with the environment, the neurobiological implications of climate change are central to understanding how individuals, and ultimately populations, will respond to global warming. Evidence is accumulating for individual level, mechanistic effects of climate change on nervous system development and performance. Climate change can also alter sensory stimuli, changing the effectiveness of sensory and cognitive systems for achieving biological fitness. At the population level, natural selection forces stemming from directional climate change may drive rapid evolutionary change in nervous system structure and function.

The neurobiology of climate change.

PubMed

O'Donnell, Sean

2018-01-06

Directional climate change (global warming) is causing rapid alterations in animals' environments. Because the nervous system is at the forefront of animals' interactions with the environment, the neurobiological implications of climate change are central to understanding how individuals, and ultimately populations, will respond to global warming. Evidence is accumulating for individual level, mechanistic effects of climate change on nervous system development and performance. Climate change can also alter sensory stimuli, changing the effectiveness of sensory and cognitive systems for achieving biological fitness. At the population level, natural selection forces stemming from directional climate change may drive rapid evolutionary change in nervous system structure and function.

INTERACTIVE EFFECTS OF OZONE DEPLETION AND CLIMATE CHANGE ON BIOGEOCHEMICAL CYCLES

EPA Science Inventory

The effects of ozone depletion on global biogeochemical cycles, via increased UV-B radiation at the Earth's surface, have continued to be documented over the past 4 years. In this report we also document various effects of UV-B that interact with global climate change because the...

A Rising Tide

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nation, Molly Trendell; Feldman, Allan; Wang, Ping

2015-01-01

Global climate change and its effects are real and immediate. Students must gain an understanding of climate science so they can participate in public debate about how to reduce the emission of heat-trapping gases and how their communities can mitigate the effects of global warming. In this activity, students model these effects on Earth's oceans…

The role of clouds and oceans in global greenhouse warming. Final report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hoffert, M.I.

1996-10-01

This research focuses on assessing connections between anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and global climatic change. it has been supported since the early 1990s in part by the DOE ``Quantitative Links`` Program (QLP). A three-year effort was originally proposed to the QLP to investigate effects f global cloudiness on global climate and its implications for cloud feedback; and to continue the development and application of climate/ocean models, with emphasis on coupled effects of greenhouse warming and feedbacks by clouds and oceans. It is well-known that cloud and ocean processes are major sources of uncertainty in the ability to predict climatic changemore » from humankind`s greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions. And it has always been the objective to develop timely and useful analytical tools for addressing real world policy issues stemming from anthropogenic climate change.« less

Increasing Potential Risk of a Global Aquatic Invader in Europe in Contrast to Other Continents under Future Climate Change

PubMed Central

Liu, Xuan; Guo, Zhongwei; Ke, Zunwei; Wang, Supen; Li, Yiming

2011-01-01

Background Anthropogenically-induced climate change can alter the current climatic habitat of non-native species and can have complex effects on potentially invasive species. Predictions of the potential distributions of invasive species under climate change will provide critical information for future conservation and management strategies. Aquatic ecosystems are particularly vulnerable to invasive species and climate change, but the effect of climate change on invasive species distributions has been rather neglected, especially for notorious global invaders. Methodology/Principal Findings We used ecological niche models (ENMs) to assess the risks and opportunities that climate change presents for the red swamp crayfish (Procambarus clarkii), which is a worldwide aquatic invasive species. Linking the factors of climate, topography, habitat and human influence, we developed predictive models incorporating both native and non-native distribution data of the crayfish to identify present areas of potential distribution and project the effects of future climate change based on a consensus-forecast approach combining the CCCMA and HADCM3 climate models under two emission scenarios (A2a and B2a) by 2050. The minimum temperature from the coldest month, the human footprint and precipitation of the driest quarter contributed most to the species distribution models. Under both the A2a and B2a scenarios, P. clarkii shifted to higher latitudes in continents of both the northern and southern hemispheres. However, the effect of climate change varied considerately among continents with an expanding potential in Europe and contracting changes in others. Conclusions/Significance Our findings are the first to predict the impact of climate change on the future distribution of a globally invasive aquatic species. We confirmed the complexities of the likely effects of climate change on the potential distribution of globally invasive species, and it is extremely important to develop wide-ranging and effective control measures according to predicted geographical shifts and changes. PMID:21479188

Assessing the aerosol direct and first indirect effects using ACM/GCM simulation results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, H.; Gu, Y.; Xue, Y.; Lu, C. H.

2016-12-01

Atmospheric aerosols have been found to play an important role in global climate change but there are still large uncertainty in evaluating its role in the climate system. The aerosols generally affect global and regional climate through the scattering and the absorption of solar radiation (direct effect) and through their influences on cloud particle, number and sizes (first indirect effect). The indirect effect will further affects cloud water content, cloud top albedo and surface precipitations. In this study, we investigate the global climatic effect of aerosols using a coupled NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS) and a land surface model (SSiB2) The OPAC (Optical Properties of Aerosols and Clouds) database is used for aerosol effect. The OPAC data provides the optical properties (i.e., the extinction, scattering and absorption coefficient, single-scattering albedo, asymmetry factor and phase function) of ten types of aerosols under various relative humidity conditions for investigating the global direct and first indirect effects of dust aerosols. For indirect forcings due to liquid water, we follow the approach presented by Jiang et al (2011), in which a parameterization of cloud effective radius was calculated to describe its variance with convective strength and aerosol concentration. Since the oceans also play an important role on aerosol climatic effect, we also design a set of simulations using a coupled atmosphere/ocean model (CFS) to evaluate the sensitivity of aerosol effect with two-way atmosphere-ocean interactions.

Come rain or shine? Public expectation on local weather change and differential effects on climate change attitude.

PubMed

Lo, Alex Y; Jim, C Y

2015-11-01

Tailored messages are instrumental to climate change communication. Information about the global threat can be 'localised' by demonstrating its linkage with local events. This research ascertains the relationship between climate change attitude and perception of local weather, based on a survey involving 800 Hong Kong citizens. Results indicate that concerns about climate change increase with expectations about the likelihood and impacts of local weather change. Climate change believers attend to all three types of adverse weather events, namely, temperature rises, tropical cyclones and prolonged rains. Climate scepticism, however, is not associated with expectation about prolonged rains. Differential spatial orientations are a possible reason. Global climate change is an unprecedented and distant threat, whereas local rain is a more familiar and localised weather event. Global climate change should be articulated in terms that respect local concerns. Localised framing may be particularly effective for engaging individuals holding positive views about climate change science. © The Author(s) 2014.

Groundwater and climate change: mitigating the global groundwater crisis and adapting to climate change model

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

To better understand the effects of climate change on global groundwater resources, the United Nations Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) International Hydrological Programme (IHP) initiated the GRAPHIC (Groundwater Resources Assessment under the Pressures of Humanity and Cl...

Evaluating the Contribution of Natural Variability and Climate Model Response to Uncertainty in Projections of Climate Change Impacts on U.S. Air Quality

EPA Science Inventory

We examine the effects of internal variability and model response in projections of climate impacts on U.S. ground-level ozone across the 21st century using integrated global system modeling and global atmospheric chemistry simulations. The impact of climate change on air polluti...

Climate change. A global threat to cardiopulmonary health.

PubMed

Rice, Mary B; Thurston, George D; Balmes, John R; Pinkerton, Kent E

2014-03-01

Recent changes in the global climate system have resulted in excess mortality and morbidity, particularly among susceptible individuals with preexisting cardiopulmonary disease. These weather patterns are projected to continue and intensify as a result of rising CO2 levels, according to the most recent projections by climate scientists. In this Pulmonary Perspective, motivated by the American Thoracic Society Committees on Environmental Health Policy and International Health, we review the global human health consequences of projected changes in climate for which there is a high level of confidence and scientific evidence of health effects, with a focus on cardiopulmonary health. We discuss how many of the climate-related health effects will disproportionally affect people from economically disadvantaged parts of the world, who contribute relatively little to CO2 emissions. Last, we discuss the financial implications of climate change solutions from a public health perspective and argue for a harmonized approach to clean air and climate change policies.

How warm days increase belief in global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zaval, Lisa; Keenan, Elizabeth A.; Johnson, Eric J.; Weber, Elke U.

2014-02-01

Climate change judgements can depend on whether today seems warmer or colder than usual, termed the local warming effect. Although previous research has demonstrated that this effect occurs, studies have yet to explain why or how temperature abnormalities influence global warming attitudes. A better understanding of the underlying psychology of this effect can help explain the public's reaction to climate change and inform approaches used to communicate the phenomenon. Across five studies, we find evidence of attribute substitution, whereby individuals use less relevant but available information (for example, today's temperature) in place of more diagnostic but less accessible information (for example, global climate change patterns) when making judgements. Moreover, we rule out alternative hypotheses involving climate change labelling and lay mental models. Ultimately, we show that present temperature abnormalities are given undue weight and lead to an overestimation of the frequency of similar past events, thereby increasing belief in and concern for global warming.

Space sensors for global change

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Canavan, G.H.

1994-02-15

Satellite measurements should contribute to a fuller understanding of the physical processes behind the radiation budget, exchange processes, and global change. Climate engineering requires global observation for early indications of predicted effects, which puts a premium on affordable, distributed constellations of satellites with effective, affordable sensors. Defense has a requirement for continuous global surveillance for warning of aggression, which could evolve from advanced sensors and satellites in development. Many climate engineering needs match those of defense technologies.

Global warming: a public health concern.

PubMed

Afzal, Brenda M

2007-05-31

Over the last 100 years the average temperature on the Earth has risen approximately 1ºFahrenheit (F), increasing at a rate twice as fast as has been noted for any period in the last 1,000 years. The Arctic ice cap is shrinking, glaciers are melting, and the Arctic permafrost is thawing. There is mounting evidence that these global climate changes are already affecting human health. This article provides a brief overview of global warming and climate changes, discusses effects of climate change on health, considers the factors which contribute to climate changes, and reviews individual and collective efforts related to reducing global warming.

Threat to future global food security from climate change and ozone air pollution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tai, Amos P. K.; Martin, Maria Val; Heald, Colette L.

2014-09-01

Future food production is highly vulnerable to both climate change and air pollution with implications for global food security. Climate change adaptation and ozone regulation have been identified as important strategies to safeguard food production, but little is known about how climate and ozone pollution interact to affect agriculture, nor the relative effectiveness of these two strategies for different crops and regions. Here we present an integrated analysis of the individual and combined effects of 2000-2050 climate change and ozone trends on the production of four major crops (wheat, rice, maize and soybean) worldwide based on historical observations and model projections, specifically accounting for ozone-temperature co-variation. The projections exclude the effect of rising CO2, which has complex and potentially offsetting impacts on global food supply. We show that warming reduces global crop production by >10% by 2050 with a potential to substantially worsen global malnutrition in all scenarios considered. Ozone trends either exacerbate or offset a substantial fraction of climate impacts depending on the scenario, suggesting the importance of air quality management in agricultural planning. Furthermore, we find that depending on region some crops are primarily sensitive to either ozone (for example, wheat) or heat (for example, maize) alone, providing a measure of relative benefits of climate adaptation versus ozone regulation for food security in different regions.

MEGAPOLI: concept and first results of multi-scale modelling of megacity impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baklanov, A. A.; Lawrence, M.; Pandis, S.

2009-09-01

The European FP7 project MEGAPOLI: ‘Megacities: Emissions, urban, regional and Global Atmospheric POLlution and climate effects, and Integrated tools for assessment and mitigation' (http://megapoli.info), started in October 2008, brings together 27 leading European research groups from 11 countries, state-of-the-art scientific tools and key players from countries outside Europe to investigate the interactions among megacities, air quality and climate. MEGAPOLI bridges the spatial and temporal scales that connect local emissions, air quality and weather with global atmospheric chemistry and climate. The main MEGAPOLI objectives are: 1. to assess impacts of megacities and large air-pollution hot-spots on local, regional and global air quality, 2. to quantify feedbacks among megacity air quality, local and regional climate, and global climate change, 3. to develop improved integrated tools for prediction of air pollution in megacities. In order to achieve these objectives the following tasks are realizing: • Develop and evaluate integrated methods to improve megacity emission data, • Investigate physical and chemical processes starting from the megacity street level, continuing to the city, regional and global scales, • Assess regional and global air quality impacts of megacity plumes, • Determine the main mechanisms of regional meteorology/climate forcing due to megacity plumes, • Assess global megacity pollutant forcing on climate, • Examine feedback mechanisms including effects of climate change on megacity air quality, • Develop integrated tools for prediction of megacity air quality, • Evaluate these integrated tools and use them in case studies, • Develop a methodology to estimate the impacts of different scenarios of megacity development on human health and climate change, • Propose and assess mitigation options to reduce the impacts of megacity emissions. We follow a pyramid strategy of undertaking detailed measurements in one European major city, Paris, performing detailed analysis for 12 megacities with existing air quality datasets and investigate the effects of all megacities on climate and global atmospheric chemistry. The project focuses on the multi-scale modelling of interacting meteorology and air quality, spanning the range from emissions to air quality, effects on climate, and feedbacks and mitigation potentials. Our hypothesis is that megacities around the world have an impact on air quality not only locally, but also regionally and globally and therefore can also influence the climate of our planet. Some of the links between megacities, air quality and climate are reasonably well-understood. However, a complete quantitative picture of these interactions is clearly missing. Understanding and quantifying these missing links is the focus of MEGAPOLI. The current status and modeling results after the first project year on examples of Paris and other European megacities are discussed.

Personal efficacy, the information environment, and attitudes toward global warming and climate change in the United States.

PubMed

Kellstedt, Paul M; Zahran, Sammy; Vedlitz, Arnold

2008-02-01

Despite the growing scientific consensus about the risks of global warming and climate change, the mass media frequently portray the subject as one of great scientific controversy and debate. And yet previous studies of the mass public's subjective assessments of the risks of global warming and climate change have not sufficiently examined public informedness, public confidence in climate scientists, and the role of personal efficacy in affecting global warming outcomes. By examining the results of a survey on an original and representative sample of Americans, we find that these three forces-informedness, confidence in scientists, and personal efficacy-are related in interesting and unexpected ways, and exert significant influence on risk assessments of global warming and climate change. In particular, more informed respondents both feel less personally responsible for global warming, and also show less concern for global warming. We also find that confidence in scientists has unexpected effects: respondents with high confidence in scientists feel less responsible for global warming, and also show less concern for global warming. These results have substantial implications for the interaction between scientists and the public in general, and for the public discussion of global warming and climate change in particular.

Human Land-Use Practices Lead to Global Long-Term Increases in Photosynthetic Capacity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mueller, Thomas; Tucker, Compton J.; Dressler, Gunnar; Pinzon, Jorge E.; Leimgruber, Peter; Dubayah, Ralph O.; Hurtt, George C.; Boehning-Gaese, Katrin; Fagan, William F.

2014-01-01

Long-term trends in photosynthetic capacity measured with the satellite-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) are usually associated with climate change. Human impacts on the global land surface are typically not accounted for. Here, we provide the first global analysis quantifying the effect of the earth's human footprint on NDVI trends. Globally, more than 20% of the variability in NDVI trends was explained by anthropogenic factors such as land use, nitrogen fertilization, and irrigation. Intensely used land classes, such as villages, showed the greatest rates of increase in NDVI, more than twice than those of forests. These findings reveal that factors beyond climate influence global long-term trends in NDVI and suggest that global climate change models and analyses of primary productivity should incorporate land use effects.

The Effect of Land Use (Deforestation) on Global Changing and its consequences in Turkey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Onursal Denli, G.; Denli, H. H.

2015-12-01

Land use has generally been considered as a local environmental issue, but it is becoming a force of global importance. Global changes to forests, farmlands, waterways, and air are being driven by the need to provide food, water and shelter to more than six billion people. Global croplands, pastures, plantations and urban areas have expanded in recent decades, accompanied by large increases in energy, water and fertilizer consumption, along with considerable losses of biodiversity. Especially the forests influence climate through physical, chemical and biological processes that affect planetary energetics, the hydrologic cycle, and atmospheric composition. Such changes in land use have enabled humans to appropriate an increasing share of the planet's resources, but they also potentially undermine the capacity of ecosystems to sustain food production, maintain freshwater and forest resources, regulate climate and air quality. Global Warming and Climate Change are the two main fundamental problems facing Turkey as well as the World. The expedition and size of this change is becoming noticeably conspicuous now. According to the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN), the global temperature has been increased of about 0.74 degree Celsius since the Industrial Revolution. Interdisciplinary science that integrates knowledge of the many interacting climate services of forests with the impacts of global change is necessary to identify and understand as yet unexplored feedbacks in the Earth system and the potential of forests to mitigate climate change. The general scientific opinions on the climate change states that in the past 50 years, global warming has effected the human life resulting with very obvious influences. High rates of deforestation within a country are most commonly linked to population growth and poverty. In Turkey, the forests are destroyed for various reasons resulting to a change in the climate. This study examines the causes of deforestation and its consequences on the climate change in Turkey. Suggestions on preventing negative effects are also given.

Climate change induced by Southern Hemisphere desertification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Ye; Yan, Xiaodong

2017-12-01

Some 10-20% of global dry-lands are already degraded, and the ongoing desertification threatens the world's poorest populations. Studies on desertification effects are essential for humans to adapt to the environmental challenges posed by desertification. Given the importance of the much larger southern ocean to the global climate and the Southern Hemisphere (SH) climate changes in phase with those in the north, the biogeophysical effects of the SH desertification on climate are assessed using an Earth system model of intermediate complexity, MPM-2. This analysis focuses on differences in climate among the averages of simulations with desert expansion in different latitude bands by year 2000. The localized desertification causes significant global changes in temperature and precipitation as well as surface albedo. On the global scale, cooling dominates the SH desertification effects. However, the biogeophysical effects are most significant in regions with desertification, and the cooling is also prominent in northern mid-latitudes. Desert expansion in 15°-30°S reveals statistically most significant cooling and increased precipitation over the forcing regions during spring. The global and regional scale responses from desertification imply the climate teleconnection and address the importance of the effects from the SH which are contingent on the location of the forcing. Our study indicates that biogeophysical mechanisms of land cover changes in the SH need to be accounted for in the assessment of land management options especially for latitude band over 15°-30°S.

Calibration-induced uncertainty of the EPIC model to estimate climate change impact on global maize yield

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xiong, Wei; Skalský, Rastislav; Porter, Cheryl H.; Balkovič, Juraj; Jones, James W.; Yang, Di

2016-09-01

Understanding the interactions between agricultural production and climate is necessary for sound decision-making in climate policy. Gridded and high-resolution crop simulation has emerged as a useful tool for building this understanding. Large uncertainty exists in this utilization, obstructing its capacity as a tool to devise adaptation strategies. Increasing focus has been given to sources of uncertainties for climate scenarios, input-data, and model, but uncertainties due to model parameter or calibration are still unknown. Here, we use publicly available geographical data sets as input to the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate model (EPIC) for simulating global-gridded maize yield. Impacts of climate change are assessed up to the year 2099 under a climate scenario generated by HadEM2-ES under RCP 8.5. We apply five strategies by shifting one specific parameter in each simulation to calibrate the model and understand the effects of calibration. Regionalizing crop phenology or harvest index appears effective to calibrate the model for the globe, but using various values of phenology generates pronounced difference in estimated climate impact. However, projected impacts of climate change on global maize production are consistently negative regardless of the parameter being adjusted. Different values of model parameter result in a modest uncertainty at global level, with difference of the global yield change less than 30% by the 2080s. The uncertainty subjects to decrease if applying model calibration or input data quality control. Calibration has a larger effect at local scales, implying the possible types and locations for adaptation.

The Influence of Emission Location on the Magnitude and Spatial Distribution of Aerosols' Climate Effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Persad, G.; Caldeira, K.

2017-12-01

The global distribution of anthropogenic aerosol emissions has evolved continuously since the preindustrial era - from 20th century North American and Western European emissions hotspots to present-day South and East Asian ones. With this comes a relocation of the regional radiative, dynamical, and hydrological impacts of aerosol emissions, which may influence global climate differently depending on where they occur. A lack of understanding of this relationship between aerosol emissions' location and their global climate effects, however, obscures the potential influence that aerosols' evolving geographic distribution may have on global and regional climate change—a gap which we address in this work. Using a novel suite of experiments in the CESM CAM5 atmospheric general circulation model coupled to a slab ocean, we systematically test and analyze mechanisms behind the relative climate impact of identical black carbon and sulfate aerosol emissions located in each of 8 past, present, or projected future major emissions regions. Results indicate that historically high emissions regions, such as North America and Western Europe, produce a stronger cooling effect than current and projected future high emissions regions. Aerosol emissions located in Western Europe produce 3 times the global mean cooling (-0.34 °C) as those located in East Africa or India (-0.11 °C). The aerosols' in-situ radiative effects remain relatively confined near the emissions region, but large distal cooling results from remote feedback processes - such as ice albedo and cloud changes - that are excited more strongly by emissions from certain regions than others. Results suggest that aerosol emissions from different countries should not be considered equal in the context of climate mitigation accounting, and that the evolving geographic distribution of aerosol emissions may have a substantial impact on the magnitude and spatial distribution of global climate change.

Evaluating the Regional Impact of Aircraft Emissions on Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, J.; Wuebbles, D. J.; Khodayari, A.

2017-12-01

Unlike other transportation sectors where pollutant emissions usually occur only near the Earth's surface, aviation emissions happen primarily at altitudes of 8-12 km above the surface, impacting the upper troposphere and the lower stratosphere (UTLS). At these altitudes, the pollutants can contribute significantly to greenhouse gas (GHGs) concentration and to the formation of secondary aerosols, which can have an impact on climate change. This study examines the regional effects on climate forcing resulting from aviation emissions. Most previous studies have focused on aviation effects on climate using globally-averaged metric values, which do not give information about the spatial variability of the effects. While aviation emissions have significant spatial variability in the sign and magnitude of response, the strength of regional effects is hidden due to the global averaging of climate change effects. In this study, the chemistry-climate Community Atmosphere Model (CAM-chem5) is used in analyses to examine the regional climate effects based on 4 different latitude bands (90oS-28oS, 28oS-28oN, 28oN-60oN, 60oN-90oN) and 3 regions (contiguous United States, Europe and East Asia). The most regionally important aviation emissions are short-lived species, such as black carbon (BC) and sulfates, emitted from aircraft directly, and O3-short induced by NOx emission indirectly. The regionality of these short-lived impacts are explored and compared to the globally-averaged effects. The results indicate that BC and sulfates have more regionality than O3. The radiative forcings for short-lived agents over the United States, Europe and East Asia are around 2-4 times of their corresponding global values. The results also suggest that the climate forcings will be the most underestimated over the United States when using globally-averaged values without considering regional heterogeneity.

Patterns and biases in climate change research on amphibians and reptiles: a systematic review.

PubMed

Winter, Maiken; Fiedler, Wolfgang; Hochachka, Wesley M; Koehncke, Arnulf; Meiri, Shai; De la Riva, Ignacio

2016-09-01

Climate change probably has severe impacts on animal populations, but demonstrating a causal link can be difficult because of potential influences by additional factors. Assessing global impacts of climate change effects may also be hampered by narrow taxonomic and geographical research foci. We review studies on the effects of climate change on populations of amphibians and reptiles to assess climate change effects and potential biases associated with the body of work that has been conducted within the last decade. We use data from 104 studies regarding the effect of climate on 313 species, from 464 species-study combinations. Climate change effects were reported in 65% of studies. Climate change was identified as causing population declines or range restrictions in half of the cases. The probability of identifying an effect of climate change varied among regions, taxa and research methods. Climatic effects were equally prevalent in studies exclusively investigating climate factors (more than 50% of studies) and in studies including additional factors, thus bolstering confidence in the results of studies exclusively examining effects of climate change. Our analyses reveal biases with respect to geography, taxonomy and research question, making global conclusions impossible. Additional research should focus on under-represented regions, taxa and questions. Conservation and climate policy should consider the documented harm climate change causes reptiles and amphibians.

Effects of climate extremes on the terrestrial carbon cycle: concepts, processes and potential future impacts.

PubMed

Frank, Dorothea; Reichstein, Markus; Bahn, Michael; Thonicke, Kirsten; Frank, David; Mahecha, Miguel D; Smith, Pete; van der Velde, Marijn; Vicca, Sara; Babst, Flurin; Beer, Christian; Buchmann, Nina; Canadell, Josep G; Ciais, Philippe; Cramer, Wolfgang; Ibrom, Andreas; Miglietta, Franco; Poulter, Ben; Rammig, Anja; Seneviratne, Sonia I; Walz, Ariane; Wattenbach, Martin; Zavala, Miguel A; Zscheischler, Jakob

2015-08-01

Extreme droughts, heat waves, frosts, precipitation, wind storms and other climate extremes may impact the structure, composition and functioning of terrestrial ecosystems, and thus carbon cycling and its feedbacks to the climate system. Yet, the interconnected avenues through which climate extremes drive ecological and physiological processes and alter the carbon balance are poorly understood. Here, we review the literature on carbon cycle relevant responses of ecosystems to extreme climatic events. Given that impacts of climate extremes are considered disturbances, we assume the respective general disturbance-induced mechanisms and processes to also operate in an extreme context. The paucity of well-defined studies currently renders a quantitative meta-analysis impossible, but permits us to develop a deductive framework for identifying the main mechanisms (and coupling thereof) through which climate extremes may act on the carbon cycle. We find that ecosystem responses can exceed the duration of the climate impacts via lagged effects on the carbon cycle. The expected regional impacts of future climate extremes will depend on changes in the probability and severity of their occurrence, on the compound effects and timing of different climate extremes, and on the vulnerability of each land-cover type modulated by management. Although processes and sensitivities differ among biomes, based on expert opinion, we expect forests to exhibit the largest net effect of extremes due to their large carbon pools and fluxes, potentially large indirect and lagged impacts, and long recovery time to regain previous stocks. At the global scale, we presume that droughts have the strongest and most widespread effects on terrestrial carbon cycling. Comparing impacts of climate extremes identified via remote sensing vs. ground-based observational case studies reveals that many regions in the (sub-)tropics are understudied. Hence, regional investigations are needed to allow a global upscaling of the impacts of climate extremes on global carbon-climate feedbacks. © 2015 The Authors. Global Change Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The appeasement effect of a United Nations climate summit on the German public

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brüggemann, Michael; de Silva-Schmidt, Fenja; Hoppe, Imke; Arlt, Dorothee; Schmitt, Josephine B.

2017-11-01

The annual UN climate summits receive intense global media coverage, and as such could engage local publics around the world, stimulate debate and knowledge about climate politics, and, ultimately, mobilize people to combat climate change. Here we show that, in contrast to these hopes, although the German public were exposed to news about the 2015 Paris summit, they did not engage with it in a more active way. Comparing knowledge and attitudes before, during and after the summit using a three-wave online panel survey (quota sample, N = 1,121), we find that respondents learnt a few basic facts about the conference but they continue to lack basic background knowledge about climate policy. Trust in global climate policy increased a little, but citizens were less inclined to support a leading role for Germany in climate politics. Moreover, they were not more likely to engage personally in climate protection. These results suggest that this global media event had a modest appeasing rather than mobilizing effect.

Overview of global climate change and carbon sequestration

Treesearch

Kurt Johnsen

2004-01-01

The potential influence of global climate change on southern forests is uncertain. Outputs of climate change models differ considerably in their projections for precipitation and other variables that affect forests. Forest responses, particularly effects on competition among species, are difficult to assess. Even the responses of relatively simple ecosystems, such as...

Ocean currents modify the coupling between climate change and biogeographical shifts.

PubMed

García Molinos, J; Burrows, M T; Poloczanska, E S

2017-05-02

Biogeographical shifts are a ubiquitous global response to climate change. However, observed shifts across taxa and geographical locations are highly variable and only partially attributable to climatic conditions. Such variable outcomes result from the interaction between local climatic changes and other abiotic and biotic factors operating across species ranges. Among them, external directional forces such as ocean and air currents influence the dispersal of nearly all marine and many terrestrial organisms. Here, using a global meta-dataset of observed range shifts of marine species, we show that incorporating directional agreement between flow and climate significantly increases the proportion of explained variance. We propose a simple metric that measures the degrees of directional agreement of ocean (or air) currents with thermal gradients and considers the effects of directional forces in predictions of climate-driven range shifts. Ocean flows are found to both facilitate and hinder shifts depending on their directional agreement with spatial gradients of temperature. Further, effects are shaped by the locations of shifts in the range (trailing, leading or centroid) and taxonomic identity of species. These results support the global effects of climatic changes on distribution shifts and stress the importance of framing climate expectations in reference to other non-climatic interacting factors.

Global Climate Change and Children's Health.

PubMed

2015-11-01

Rising global temperatures are causing major physical, chemical, and ecological changes in the planet. There is wide consensus among scientific organizations and climatologists that these broad effects, known as "climate change," are the result of contemporary human activity. Climate change poses threats to human health, safety, and security, and children are uniquely vulnerable to these threats. The effects of climate change on child health include: physical and psychological sequelae of weather disasters; increased heat stress; decreased air quality; altered disease patterns of some climate-sensitive infections; and food, water, and nutrient insecurity in vulnerable regions. The social foundations of children's mental and physical health are threatened by the specter of far-reaching effects of unchecked climate change, including community and global instability, mass migrations, and increased conflict. Given this knowledge, failure to take prompt, substantive action would be an act of injustice to all children. A paradigm shift in production and consumption of energy is both a necessity and an opportunity for major innovation, job creation, and significant, immediate associated health benefits. Pediatricians have a uniquely valuable role to play in the societal response to this global challenge. Copyright © 2015 by the American Academy of Pediatrics.

The influence of land-use change and landscape dynamics on the climate system: relevance to climate-change policy beyond the radiative effect of greenhouse gases.

PubMed

Pielke, Roger A; Marland, Gregg; Betts, Richard A; Chase, Thomas N; Eastman, Joseph L; Niles, John O; Niyogi, Dev Dutta S; Running, Steven W

2002-08-15

Our paper documents that land-use change impacts regional and global climate through the surface-energy budget, as well as through the carbon cycle. The surface-energy budget effects may be more important than the carbon-cycle effects. However, land-use impacts on climate cannot be adequately quantified with the usual metric of 'global warming potential'. A new metric is needed to quantify the human disturbance of the Earth's surface-energy budget. This 'regional climate change potential' could offer a new metric for developing a more inclusive climate protocol. This concept would also implicitly provide a mechanism to monitor potential local-scale environmental changes that could influence biodiversity.

Global markets and the differential effects of climate and weather on conflict

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meng, K. C.; Hsiang, S. M.; Cane, M. A.

2011-12-01

Both climate and weather have been attributed historically as possible drivers for violence. Previous empirical studies have either focused on isolating local idiosyncratic weather variation or have conflated weather with spatially coherent climatic changes. This paper provides the first study of the differential impacts of climate and weather variation by employing methods developed in earlier work linking the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) with the onset of civil conflicts. By separating the effects of climate from local weather, we are able to test possible mechanisms by which atmospheric changes can cause violence. It is generally difficult to separate the effect of year-to-year climate variations from other global events that might drive conflict. We avoid this problem by examining the set of tropical countries that are strongly teleconnected to ENSO. For this region, the ENSO cycle parallels the common year-to-year pattern of violence. Using ENSO, we isolate the influence of climatic changes from other global determinants of violence and compare it with the effect of local weather variations. We find that while climate affects the onset of civil conflicts in teleconnected countries, local weather has no significant effect. Productivity overall as well as across major sectors is more affected by local weather than by climatic variation. This is particularly evident in the agricultural sector where total value and cereal yield decline much greater from a 1°C increase in local temperature than a 1°C increase in ENSO. However, when examining the effect on food prices, we find that ENSO is associated with a large and statistically significant increase in cereal prices but no effect from hotter local temperatures. Altogether, this evidence points toward the ability of global and regional commodity markets to insure against the effects of local weather variation and their limitations in containing losses from aggregate shocks such as El Nino events. We posit that conflict reacts to climate and not weather because climatic events trigger not only local agricultural losses but also increased food prices as a result of an aggregate decline in output. This is because in an open economy, idiosyncratic weather variation alone would not lead to higher prices. These results are informative in understanding the impacts of anthropogenic global change, which would yield variation exhibiting spatial coherence beyond the extent of existing markets.

Quantifying the Effects of Historical Land Cover Conversion Uncertainty on Global Carbon and Climate Estimates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Di Vittorio, A. V.; Mao, J.; Shi, X.; Chini, L.; Hurtt, G.; Collins, W. D.

2018-01-01

Previous studies have examined land use change as a driver of global change, but the translation of land use change into land cover conversion has been largely unconstrained. Here we quantify the effects of land cover conversion uncertainty on the global carbon and climate system using the integrated Earth System Model. Our experiments use identical land use change data and vary land cover conversions to quantify associated uncertainty in carbon and climate estimates. Land cover conversion uncertainty is large, constitutes a 5 ppmv range in estimated atmospheric CO2 in 2004, and generates carbon uncertainty that is equivalent to 80% of the net effects of CO2 and climate and 124% of the effects of nitrogen deposition during 1850-2004. Additionally, land cover uncertainty generates differences in local surface temperature of over 1°C. We conclude that future studies addressing land use, carbon, and climate need to constrain and reduce land cover conversion uncertainties.

Representation of deforestation impacts on climate, water, and nutrient cycles in the ACME earth system model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cai, X.; Riley, W. J.; Zhu, Q.

2017-12-01

Deforestation causes a series of changes to the climate, water, and nutrient cycles. Employing a state-of-the-art earth system model—ACME (Accelerated Climate Modeling for Energy), we comprehensively investigate the impacts of deforestation on these processes. We first assess the performance of the ACME Land Model (ALM) in simulating runoff, evapotranspiration, albedo, and plant productivity at 42 FLUXNET sites. The single column mode of ACME is then used to examine climate effects (temperature cooling/warming) and responses of runoff, evapotranspiration, and nutrient fluxes to deforestation. This approach separates local effects of deforestation from global circulation effects. To better understand the deforestation effects in a global context, we use the coupled (atmosphere, land, and slab ocean) mode of ACME to demonstrate the impacts of deforestation on global climate, water, and nutrient fluxes. Preliminary results showed that the land component of ACME has advantages in simulating these processes and that local deforestation has potentially large impacts on runoff and atmospheric processes.

Quantifying the Effects of Historical Land Cover Conversion Uncertainty on Global Carbon and Climate Estimates

DOE PAGES

Di Vittorio, A. V.; Mao, J.; Shi, X.; ...

2018-01-03

Previous studies have examined land use change as a driver of global change, but the translation of land use change into land cover conversion has been largely unconstrained. In this paper, we quantify the effects of land cover conversion uncertainty on the global carbon and climate system using the integrated Earth System Model. Our experiments use identical land use change data and vary land cover conversions to quantify associated uncertainty in carbon and climate estimates. Land cover conversion uncertainty is large, constitutes a 5 ppmv range in estimated atmospheric CO 2 in 2004, and generates carbon uncertainty that is equivalentmore » to 80% of the net effects of CO 2 and climate and 124% of the effects of nitrogen deposition during 1850–2004. Additionally, land cover uncertainty generates differences in local surface temperature of over 1°C. Finally, we conclude that future studies addressing land use, carbon, and climate need to constrain and reduce land cover conversion uncertainties.« less

Quantifying the Effects of Historical Land Cover Conversion Uncertainty on Global Carbon and Climate Estimates

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Di Vittorio, A. V.; Mao, J.; Shi, X.

Previous studies have examined land use change as a driver of global change, but the translation of land use change into land cover conversion has been largely unconstrained. In this paper, we quantify the effects of land cover conversion uncertainty on the global carbon and climate system using the integrated Earth System Model. Our experiments use identical land use change data and vary land cover conversions to quantify associated uncertainty in carbon and climate estimates. Land cover conversion uncertainty is large, constitutes a 5 ppmv range in estimated atmospheric CO 2 in 2004, and generates carbon uncertainty that is equivalentmore » to 80% of the net effects of CO 2 and climate and 124% of the effects of nitrogen deposition during 1850–2004. Additionally, land cover uncertainty generates differences in local surface temperature of over 1°C. Finally, we conclude that future studies addressing land use, carbon, and climate need to constrain and reduce land cover conversion uncertainties.« less

Global and local concerns: what attitudes and beliefs motivate farmers to mitigate and adapt to climate change?

PubMed

Haden, Van R; Niles, Meredith T; Lubell, Mark; Perlman, Joshua; Jackson, Louise E

2012-01-01

In response to agriculture's vulnerability and contribution to climate change, many governments are developing initiatives that promote the adoption of mitigation and adaptation practices among farmers. Since most climate policies affecting agriculture rely on voluntary efforts by individual farmers, success requires a sound understanding of the factors that motivate farmers to change practices. Recent evidence suggests that past experience with the effects of climate change and the psychological distance associated with people's concern for global and local impacts can influence environmental behavior. Here we surveyed farmers in a representative rural county in California's Central Valley to examine how their intention to adopt mitigation and adaptation practices is influenced by previous climate experiences and their global and local concerns about climate change. Perceived changes in water availability had significant effects on farmers' intention to adopt mitigation and adaptation strategies, which were mediated through global and local concerns respectively. This suggests that mitigation is largely motivated by psychologically distant concerns and beliefs about climate change, while adaptation is driven by psychologically proximate concerns for local impacts. This match between attitudes and behaviors according to the psychological distance at which they are cognitively construed indicates that policy and outreach initiatives may benefit by framing climate impacts and behavioral goals concordantly; either in a global context for mitigation or a local context for adaptation.

Estimation of the global climate effect of brown carbon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, A.; Wang, Y.; Zhang, Y.; Weber, R. J.; Song, Y.

2017-12-01

Carbonaceous aerosols significantly affect global radiative forcing and climate through absorption and scattering of sunlight. Black carbon (BC) and brown carbon (BrC) are light-absorbing carbonaceous aerosols. The global distribution and climate effect of BrC is uncertain. A recent study suggests that BrC absorption is comparable to BC in the upper troposphere over biomass burning region and that the resulting heating tends to stabilize the atmosphere. Yet current climate models do not include proper treatments of BrC. In this study, we derived a BrC global biomass burning emission inventory from Global Fire Emissions Database 4 (GFED4) and developed a BrC module in the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5) of Community Earth System Model (CESM) model. The model simulations compared well to BrC observations of the Studies of Emissions, Atmospheric Composition, Clouds and Climate Coupling by Regional Surveys (SEAC4RS) and Deep Convective Clouds and Chemistry Project (DC-3) campaigns and includes BrC bleaching. Model results suggested that BrC in the upper troposphere due to convective transport is as important an absorber as BC globally. Upper tropospheric BrC radiative forcing is particularly significant over the tropics, affecting the atmosphere stability and Hadley circulation.

Soot climate forcing via snow and ice albedos.

PubMed

Hansen, James; Nazarenko, Larissa

2004-01-13

Plausible estimates for the effect of soot on snow and ice albedos (1.5% in the Arctic and 3% in Northern Hemisphere land areas) yield a climate forcing of +0.3 W/m(2) in the Northern Hemisphere. The "efficacy" of this forcing is approximately 2, i.e., for a given forcing it is twice as effective as CO(2) in altering global surface air temperature. This indirect soot forcing may have contributed to global warming of the past century, including the trend toward early springs in the Northern Hemisphere, thinning Arctic sea ice, and melting land ice and permafrost. If, as we suggest, melting ice and sea level rise define the level of dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system, then reducing soot emissions, thus restoring snow albedos to pristine high values, would have the double benefit of reducing global warming and raising the global temperature level at which dangerous anthropogenic interference occurs. However, soot contributions to climate change do not alter the conclusion that anthropogenic greenhouse gases have been the main cause of recent global warming and will be the predominant climate forcing in the future.

INTERACTIVE EFFECTS OF SOLAR UV RADIATION AND CLIMATE CHANGE ON BIOGEOCHEMICAL CYCLING

EPA Science Inventory

This paper assesses research on the interactions of UV radiation (280-400 nm) and global climate change with global biogeochemical cycles at the Earth's surface. The effects of UV-B (280-315 nm), which are dependent on the stratospheric ozone layer, on biogeochemical cycles are o...

Global Climate Change and Children's Health.

PubMed

Ahdoot, Samantha; Pacheco, Susan E

2015-11-01

Rising global temperature is causing major physical, chemical, and ecological changes across the planet. There is wide consensus among scientific organizations and climatologists that these broad effects, known as climate change, are the result of contemporary human activity. Climate change poses threats to human health, safety, and security. Children are uniquely vulnerable to these threats. The effects of climate change on child health include physical and psychological sequelae of weather disasters, increased heat stress, decreased air quality, altered disease patterns of some climate-sensitive infections, and food, water, and nutrient insecurity in vulnerable regions. Prompt implementation of mitigation and adaptation strategies will protect children against worsening of the problem and its associated health effects. This technical report reviews the nature of climate change and its associated child health effects and supports the recommendations in the accompanying policy statement on climate change and children's health. Copyright © 2015 by the American Academy of Pediatrics.

Plant health and global change--some implications for landscape management.

PubMed

Pautasso, Marco; Dehnen-Schmutz, Katharina; Holdenrieder, Ottmar; Pietravalle, Stéphane; Salama, Nabeil; Jeger, Mike J; Lange, Eckart; Hehl-Lange, Sigrid

2010-11-01

Global change (climate change together with other worldwide anthropogenic processes such as increasing trade, air pollution and urbanization) will affect plant health at the genetic, individual, population and landscape level. Direct effects include ecosystem stress due to natural resources shortage or imbalance. Indirect effects include (i) an increased frequency of natural detrimental phenomena, (ii) an increased pressure due to already present pests and diseases, (iii) the introduction of new invasive species either as a result of an improved suitability of the climatic conditions or as a result of increased trade, and (iv) the human response to global change. In this review, we provide an overview of recent studies on terrestrial plant health in the presence of global change factors. We summarize the links between climate change and some key issues in plant health, including tree mortality, changes in wildfire regimes, biological invasions and the role of genetic diversity for ecosystem resilience. Prediction and management of global change effects are complicated by interactions between globalization, climate and invasive plants and/or pathogens. We summarize practical guidelines for landscape management and draw general conclusions from an expanding body of literature. © 2010 The Authors. Biological Reviews © 2010 Cambridge Philosophical Society.

Global climate change and terrestrial net primary production

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Melillo, Jerry M.; Mcguire, A. D.; Kicklighter, David W.; Moore, Berrien, III; Vorosmarty, Charles J.; Schloss, Annette L.

1993-01-01

A process-based model was used to estimate global patterns of net primary production and soil nitrogen cycling for contemporary climate conditions and current atmospheric CO2 concentration. Over half of the global annual net primary production was estimated to occur in the tropics, with most of the production attributable to tropical evergreen forest. The effects of CO2 doubling and associated climate changes were also explored. The responses in tropical and dry temperate ecosystems were dominated by CO2, but those in northern and moist temperate ecosystems reflected the effects of temperature on nitrogen availability.

Argumentation as a Strategy for Increasing Preservice Teachers' Understanding of Climate Change, a Key Global Socioscientific Issue

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lambert, Julie L.; Bleicher, Robert E.

2017-01-01

Findings of this study suggest that scientific argumentation can play an effective role in addressing complex socioscientific issues (i.e. global climate change). This research examined changes in preservice teachers' knowledge and perceptions about climate change in an innovative undergraduate-level elementary science methods course. The…

Climate change and the global malaria recession.

PubMed

Gething, Peter W; Smith, David L; Patil, Anand P; Tatem, Andrew J; Snow, Robert W; Hay, Simon I

2010-05-20

The current and potential future impact of climate change on malaria is of major public health interest. The proposed effects of rising global temperatures on the future spread and intensification of the disease, and on existing malaria morbidity and mortality rates, substantively influence global health policy. The contemporary spatial limits of Plasmodium falciparum malaria and its endemicity within this range, when compared with comparable historical maps, offer unique insights into the changing global epidemiology of malaria over the last century. It has long been known that the range of malaria has contracted through a century of economic development and disease control. Here, for the first time, we quantify this contraction and the global decreases in malaria endemicity since approximately 1900. We compare the magnitude of these changes to the size of effects on malaria endemicity proposed under future climate scenarios and associated with widely used public health interventions. Our findings have two key and often ignored implications with respect to climate change and malaria. First, widespread claims that rising mean temperatures have already led to increases in worldwide malaria morbidity and mortality are largely at odds with observed decreasing global trends in both its endemicity and geographic extent. Second, the proposed future effects of rising temperatures on endemicity are at least one order of magnitude smaller than changes observed since about 1900 and up to two orders of magnitude smaller than those that can be achieved by the effective scale-up of key control measures. Predictions of an intensification of malaria in a warmer world, based on extrapolated empirical relationships or biological mechanisms, must be set against a context of a century of warming that has seen marked global declines in the disease and a substantial weakening of the global correlation between malaria endemicity and climate.

Crowding-in: how Indian civil society organizations began mobilizing around climate change.

PubMed

Ylä-Anttila, Tuomas; Swarnakar, Pradip

2017-06-01

This paper argues that periodic waves of crowding-in to 'hot' issue fields are a recurring feature of how globally networked civil society organizations operate, especially in countries of the Global South. We elaborate on this argument through a study of Indian civil society mobilization around climate change. Five key mechanisms contribute to crowding-in processes: (1) the expansion of discursive opportunities; (2) the event effects of global climate change conferences; (3) the network effects created by expanding global civil society networks; (4) the adoption and innovation of action repertoires; and (5) global pressure effects creating new opportunities for civil society. Our findings contribute to the world society literature, with an account of the social mechanisms through which global institutions and political events affect national civil societies, and to the social movements literature by showing that developments in world society are essential contributors to national mobilization processes. © London School of Economics and Political Science 2017.

Climate and litter quality differently modulate the effects of soil fauna on litter decomposition across biomes

PubMed Central

García-Palacios, Pablo; Maestre, Fernando T.; Kattge, Jens; Wall, Diana H.

2015-01-01

Climate and litter quality have been identified as major drivers of litter decomposition at large spatial scales. However, the role played by soil fauna remains largely unknown, despite its importance for litter fragmentation and microbial activity. We synthesized litterbag studies to quantify the effect sizes of soil fauna on litter decomposition rates at the global and biome scales, and to assess how climate, litter quality and soil fauna interact to determine such rates. Soil fauna consistently enhanced litter decomposition at both global and biome scales (average increment ~27%). However, climate and litter quality differently modulated the effects of soil fauna on decomposition rates between biomes, from climate-driven biomes to those where climate effects were mediated by changes in litter quality. Our results advocate for the inclusion of biome-specific soil fauna effects on litter decomposition as a mean to reduce the unexplained variation in large-scale decomposition models. PMID:23763716

Patterns and biases in climate change research on amphibians and reptiles: a systematic review

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Climate change probably has severe impacts on animal populations, but demonstrating a causal link can be difficult because of potential influences by additional factors. Assessing global impacts of climate change effects may also be hampered by narrow taxonomic and geographical research foci. We review studies on the effects of climate change on populations of amphibians and reptiles to assess climate change effects and potential biases associated with the body of work that has been conducted within the last decade. We use data from 104 studies regarding the effect of climate on 313 species, from 464 species–study combinations. Climate change effects were reported in 65% of studies. Climate change was identified as causing population declines or range restrictions in half of the cases. The probability of identifying an effect of climate change varied among regions, taxa and research methods. Climatic effects were equally prevalent in studies exclusively investigating climate factors (more than 50% of studies) and in studies including additional factors, thus bolstering confidence in the results of studies exclusively examining effects of climate change. Our analyses reveal biases with respect to geography, taxonomy and research question, making global conclusions impossible. Additional research should focus on under-represented regions, taxa and questions. Conservation and climate policy should consider the documented harm climate change causes reptiles and amphibians. PMID:27703684

An effective drift correction for dynamical downscaling of decadal global climate predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paeth, Heiko; Li, Jingmin; Pollinger, Felix; Müller, Wolfgang A.; Pohlmann, Holger; Feldmann, Hendrik; Panitz, Hans-Jürgen

2018-04-01

Initialized decadal climate predictions with coupled climate models are often marked by substantial climate drifts that emanate from a mismatch between the climatology of the coupled model system and the data set used for initialization. While such drifts may be easily removed from the prediction system when analyzing individual variables, a major problem prevails for multivariate issues and, especially, when the output of the global prediction system shall be used for dynamical downscaling. In this study, we present a statistical approach to remove climate drifts in a multivariate context and demonstrate the effect of this drift correction on regional climate model simulations over the Euro-Atlantic sector. The statistical approach is based on an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis adapted to a very large data matrix. The climate drift emerges as a dramatic cooling trend in North Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and is captured by the leading EOF of the multivariate output from the global prediction system, accounting for 7.7% of total variability. The SST cooling pattern also imposes drifts in various atmospheric variables and levels. The removal of the first EOF effectuates the drift correction while retaining other components of intra-annual, inter-annual and decadal variability. In the regional climate model, the multivariate drift correction of the input data removes the cooling trends in most western European land regions and systematically reduces the discrepancy between the output of the regional climate model and observational data. In contrast, removing the drift only in the SST field from the global model has hardly any positive effect on the regional climate model.

Selecting global climate models for regional climate change studies

PubMed Central

Pierce, David W.; Barnett, Tim P.; Santer, Benjamin D.; Gleckler, Peter J.

2009-01-01

Regional or local climate change modeling studies currently require starting with a global climate model, then downscaling to the region of interest. How should global models be chosen for such studies, and what effect do such choices have? This question is addressed in the context of a regional climate detection and attribution (D&A) study of January-February-March (JFM) temperature over the western U.S. Models are often selected for a regional D&A analysis based on the quality of the simulated regional climate. Accordingly, 42 performance metrics based on seasonal temperature and precipitation, the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation are constructed and applied to 21 global models. However, no strong relationship is found between the score of the models on the metrics and results of the D&A analysis. Instead, the importance of having ensembles of runs with enough realizations to reduce the effects of natural internal climate variability is emphasized. Also, the superiority of the multimodel ensemble average (MM) to any 1 individual model, already found in global studies examining the mean climate, is true in this regional study that includes measures of variability as well. Evidence is shown that this superiority is largely caused by the cancellation of offsetting errors in the individual global models. Results with both the MM and models picked randomly confirm the original D&A results of anthropogenically forced JFM temperature changes in the western U.S. Future projections of temperature do not depend on model performance until the 2080s, after which the better performing models show warmer temperatures. PMID:19439652

Effect of ice-albedo feedback on global sensitivity in a one-dimensional radiative-convective climate model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wang, W.-C.; Stone, P. H.

1980-01-01

The feedback between the ice albedo and temperature is included in a one-dimensional radiative-convective climate model. The effect of this feedback on global sensitivity to changes in solar constant is studied for the current climate conditions. This ice-albedo feedback amplifies global sensitivity by 26 and 39%, respectively, for assumptions of fixed cloud altitude and fixed cloud temperature. The global sensitivity is not affected significantly if the latitudinal variations of mean solar zenith angle and cloud cover are included in the global model. The differences in global sensitivity between one-dimensional radiative-convective models and energy balance models are examined. It is shown that the models are in close agreement when the same feedback mechanisms are included. The one-dimensional radiative-convective model with ice-albedo feedback included is used to compute the equilibrium ice line as a function of solar constant.

Using Satellite Observations of Cloud Vertical Distribution to Improve Global Model Estimates of Cloud Radiative Effect on Key Tropospheric Oxidants

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liu, Hongyu; Crawford, James; Ham, Seung-Hee; Zhang, Bo; Kato, Seiji; Voulgarakis, Apostolos; Chen, Gao; Fairlie, Duncan; Duncan, Bryan; Yantosca, Robert

2017-01-01

Clouds directly affect tropospheric photochemistry through modification of solar radiation that determines photolysis frequencies. This effect is an important component of global tropospheric chemistry-climate interaction, and its understanding is thus essential for predicting the feedback of climate change on tropospheric chemistry.

The effect of future outdoor air pollution on human health and the contribution of climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silva, R.; West, J. J.; Lamarque, J.; Shindell, D.; Collins, W.; Dalsoren, S. B.; Faluvegi, G. S.; Folberth, G.; Horowitz, L. W.; Nagashima, T.; Naik, V.; Rumbold, S.; Skeie, R.; Sudo, K.; Takemura, T.; Bergmann, D. J.; Cameron-Smith, P. J.; Cionni, I.; Doherty, R. M.; Eyring, V.; Josse, B.; MacKenzie, I. A.; Plummer, D.; Righi, M.; Stevenson, D. S.; Strode, S. A.; Szopa, S.; Zeng, G.

2013-12-01

At present, exposure to outdoor air pollution from ozone and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) causes over 2 million deaths per year, due to respiratory and cardiovascular diseases and lung cancer. Future ambient concentrations of ozone and PM2.5 will be affected by both air pollutant emissions and climate change. Here we estimate the potential impact of future outdoor air pollution on premature human mortality, and isolate the contribution of future climate change due to its effect on air quality. We use modeled present-day (2000) and future global ozone and PM2.5 concentrations from simulations with an ensemble of chemistry-climate models from the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP). Future air pollution was modeled for global greenhouse gas and air pollutant emissions in the four IPCC AR5 Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios, for 2030, 2050 and 2100. All model outputs are regridded to a common 0.5°x0.5° horizontal resolution. Future premature mortality is estimated for each RCP scenario and year based on changes in concentrations of ozone and PM2.5 relative to 2000. Using a health impact function, changes in concentrations for each RCP scenario are combined with future population and cause-specific baseline mortality rates as projected by a single independent scenario in which the global incidence of cardiopulmonary diseases is expected to increase. The effect of climate change is isolated by considering the difference between air pollutant concentrations from simulations with 2000 emissions and a future year climate and simulations with 2000 emissions and climate. Uncertainties in the results reflect the uncertainty in the concentration-response function and that associated with variability among models. Few previous studies have quantified the effects of future climate change on global human health via changes in air quality, and this is the first such study to use an ensemble of global models.

Wintertime urban heat island modified by global climate change over Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hara, M.

2015-12-01

Urban thermal environment change, especially, surface air temperature (SAT) rise in metropolitan areas, is one of the major recent issues in urban areas. The urban thermal environmental change affects not only human health such as heat stroke, but also increasing infectious disease due to spreading out virus vectors habitat and increase of industry and house energy consumption. The SAT rise is mostly caused by global climate change and urban heat island (hereafter UHI) by urbanization. The population in Tokyo metropolitan area is over 30 millions and the Tokyo metropolitan area is one of the biggest megacities in the world. The temperature rise due to urbanization seems comparable to the global climate change in the major megacities. It is important to project how the urbanization and the global climate change affect to the future change of urban thermal environment to plan the adaptation and mitigation policy. To predict future SAT change in urban scale, we should estimate future UHI modified by the global climate change. This study investigates change in UHI intensity (UHII) of major metropolitan areas in Japan by effects of the global climate change. We performed a series of climate simulations. Present climate simulations with and without urban process are conducted for ten seasons using a high-resolution numerical climate model, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Future climate projections with and without urban process are also conducted. The future projections are performed using the pseudo global warming method, assuming 2050s' initial and boundary conditions estimated by a GCM under the RCP scenario. Simulation results indicated that UHII would be enhanced more than 30% in Tokyo during the night due to the global climate change. The enhancement of urban heat island is mostly caused by change of lower atmospheric stability.

Probabilistic Change of Wheat Productivity and Water Use in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Yujie; Chen, Qiaomin

2017-04-01

Impacts of climate change on agriculture are a major concern worldwide, but uncertainties of climate models and emission scenarios may hamper efforts to adapt to climate change. In this paper, a probabilistic approach is used to estimate the uncertainties and simulate impacts of global warming on wheat production and water use in the main wheat cultivation regions of China, with a global mean temperature (GMT) increase scale relative to 1961-90 values. From output of 20 climate scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Data Distribution Centre, median values of projected changes in monthly mean climate variables for representative stations are adapted. These are used to drive the Crop Environment Resource Synthesis (CERES)-Wheat model to simulate wheat production and water use under baseline and global warming scenarios, with and without consideration of carbon dioxide (CO2) fertilization effects. Results show that, because of temperature increase, projected wheat-growing periods for GMT changes of 18, 28, and 38C would shorten, with averaged median values of 3.94%, 6.90%, and 9.67%, respectively. There is a high probability of decreasing (increasing) changes in yield and water-use efficiency under higher temperature scenarios without (with) consideration of CO2 fertilization effects. Elevated CO2 concentration generally compensates for the negative effects of warming temperatures on production. Moreover, positive effects of elevated CO2 concentration on grain yield increase with warming temperatures. The findings could be critical for climate-change-driven agricultural production that ensures global food security.

Global climate changes, natural disasters, and travel health risks.

PubMed

Diaz, James H

2006-01-01

Whether the result of cyclical atmospheric changes, anthropogenic activities, or combinations of both, authorities now agree that the earth is warming from a variety of climatic effects, including the cascading effects of greenhouse gas emissions to support human activities. To date, most reports of the public health outcomes of global warming have been anecdotal and retrospective in design and have focused on heat stroke deaths following heat waves, drowning deaths in floods and tsunamis, and mosquito-borne infectious disease outbreaks following tropical storms and cyclones. Accurate predictions of the true public health outcomes of global climate change are confounded by several effect modifiers including human acclimatization and adaptation, the contributions of natural climatic changes, and many conflicting atmospheric models of climate change. Nevertheless, temporal relationships between environmental factors and human health outcomes have been identified and may be used as criteria to judge the causality of associations between the human health outcomes of climate changes and climate-driven natural disasters. Travel medicine physicians are obligated to educate their patients about the known public health outcomes of climate changes, about the disease and injury risk factors their patients may face from climate-spawned natural disasters, and about the best preventive measures to reduce infectious diseases and injuries following natural disasters throughout the world.

Can climate-effective land management reduce regional warming?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hirsch, A. L.; Wilhelm, M.; Davin, E. L.; Thiery, W.; Seneviratne, S. I.

2017-02-01

Limiting global warming to well below 2°C is an imminent challenge for humanity. However, even if this global target can be met, some regions are still likely to experience substantial warming relative to others. Using idealized global climate simulations, we examine the potential of land management options in affecting regional climate, with a focus on crop albedo enhancement and irrigation (climate-effective land management). The implementation is performed over all crop regions globally to provide an upper bound. We find that the implementation of both crop albedo enhancement and irrigation can reduce hot temperature extremes by more than 2°C in North America, Eurasia, and India over the 21st century relative to a scenario without management application. The efficacy of crop albedo enhancement scales with the magnitude, where a cooling response exceeding 0.5°C for hot temperature extremes was achieved with a large (i.e., ≥0.08) change in crop albedo. Regional differences were attributed to the surface energy balance response with temperature changes mostly explained by latent heat flux changes for irrigation and net shortwave radiation changes for crop albedo enhancement. However, limitations do exist, where we identify warming over the winter months when climate-effective land management is temporarily suspended. This was associated with persistent cloud cover that enhances longwave warming. It cannot be confirmed if the magnitude of this feedback is reproducible in other climate models. Our results overall demonstrate that regional warming of hot extremes in our climate model can be partially mitigated when using an idealized treatment of climate-effective land management.

Modeling responses of large-river fish populations to global climate change through downscaling and incorporation of predictive uncertainty

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wildhaber, Mark L.; Wikle, Christopher K.; Anderson, Christopher J.; Franz, Kristie J.; Moran, Edward H.; Dey, Rima; Mader, Helmut; Kraml, Julia

2012-01-01

Climate change operates over a broad range of spatial and temporal scales. Understanding its effects on ecosystems requires multi-scale models. For understanding effects on fish populations of riverine ecosystems, climate predicted by coarse-resolution Global Climate Models must be downscaled to Regional Climate Models to watersheds to river hydrology to population response. An additional challenge is quantifying sources of uncertainty given the highly nonlinear nature of interactions between climate variables and community level processes. We present a modeling approach for understanding and accomodating uncertainty by applying multi-scale climate models and a hierarchical Bayesian modeling framework to Midwest fish population dynamics and by linking models for system components together by formal rules of probability. The proposed hierarchical modeling approach will account for sources of uncertainty in forecasts of community or population response. The goal is to evaluate the potential distributional changes in an ecological system, given distributional changes implied by a series of linked climate and system models under various emissions/use scenarios. This understanding will aid evaluation of management options for coping with global climate change. In our initial analyses, we found that predicted pallid sturgeon population responses were dependent on the climate scenario considered.

Impacts Of Global/Regional Climate Changes On Environment And Health: Need For Integrated Research And Education Collaboration (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tuluri, F.

2013-12-01

The realization of long term changes in climate in research community has to go beyond the comfort zone through climate literacy in academics. Higher education on climate change is the platform to bring together the otherwise disconnected factors such as effective discovery, decision making, innovation, interdisciplinary collaboration, Climate change is a complex process that may be due to natural internal processes within the climate system, or to variations in natural or anthropogenic (human-driven) external forcing. Global climate change indicates a change in either the mean state of the climate or in its variability, persisting for several decades or longer. This includes changes in average weather conditions on Earth, such as a change in average global temperature, as well as changes in how frequently regions experience heat waves, droughts, floods, storms, and other extreme weather. It is important to examine the effects of climate variations on human health and disorders in order to take preventive measures. Similarly, the influence of climate changes on animal management practices, pests and pest management systems, and high value crops such as citrus and vegetables is also equally important for investigation. New genetic agricultural varieties must be explored, and pilot studies should examine biotechnology transfer. Recent climate model improvements have resulted in an enhanced ability to simulate many aspects of climate variability and extremes. However, they are still characterized by systematic errors and limitations in accurately simulating more precisely regional climate conditions. The present situations warrant developing climate literacy on the synergistic impacts of environmental change, and improve development, testing and validation of integrated stress impacts through computer modeling. In the present study we present a detailed study of the current status on the impacts of global/regional climate changes on environment and health with a view to highlighting the need for integrated research and education collaboration at national and global level.

Effects of solar UV radiation and climate change on biogeochemical cycling: interactions and feedbacks.

PubMed

Zepp, R G; Erickson, D J; Paul, N D; Sulzberger, B

2011-02-01

Solar UV radiation, climate and other drivers of global change are undergoing significant changes and models forecast that these changes will continue for the remainder of this century. Here we assess the effects of solar UV radiation on biogeochemical cycles and the interactions of these effects with climate change, including feedbacks on climate. Such interactions occur in both terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. While there is significant uncertainty in the quantification of these effects, they could accelerate the rate of atmospheric CO(2) increase and subsequent climate change beyond current predictions. The effects of predicted changes in climate and solar UV radiation on carbon cycling in terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems are expected to vary significantly between regions. The balance of positive and negative effects on terrestrial carbon cycling remains uncertain, but the interactions between UV radiation and climate change are likely to contribute to decreasing sink strength in many oceanic regions. Interactions between climate and solar UV radiation will affect cycling of elements other than carbon, and so will influence the concentration of greenhouse and ozone-depleting gases. For example, increases in oxygen-deficient regions of the ocean caused by climate change are projected to enhance the emissions of nitrous oxide, an important greenhouse and ozone-depleting gas. Future changes in UV-induced transformations of aquatic and terrestrial contaminants could have both beneficial and adverse effects. Taken in total, it is clear that the future changes in UV radiation coupled with human-caused global change will have large impacts on biogeochemical cycles at local, regional and global scales.

Global change in forests: responses of species, communities, and biomes

Treesearch

Andrew J. Hansen; Ronald P. Neilson; Virginia H. Dale; Curtis H. Flather; Louis R. Iverson; David J. Currie; Sarah Shafer; Rosamonde Cook; Partick J. Bartlein

2001-01-01

This article serves as a primer on forest biodiversity as a key component of global change. We first synthesize current knowledge of interactions among climate, land use, and biodiversity. We then summarize the results of new analyses on the potential effects of human-induced climate change on forest biodiversity. Our models project how possible future climates may...

Interacting effects of multiple stresses on growth and physiological processes in northern forest trees

Treesearch

Judson G. Isebrands; Richard E. Dickson; Joanne Rebbeck; David F. Karnosky

2000-01-01

Global climate chagnge is a complex and controversial subject, both technically and politically. Recently, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) of the United Nations concluded that "the balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climate" and that "further accumulation of greenhouse gases will commit the earth...

Geophysical Global Modeling for Extreme Crop Production Using Photosynthesis Models Coupled to Ocean SST Dipoles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaneko, D.

2016-12-01

Climate change appears to have manifested itself along with abnormal meteorological disasters. Instability caused by drought and flood disasters is producing poor harvests because of poor photosynthesis and pollination. Fluctuations of extreme phenomena are increasing rapidly because amplitudes of change are much greater than average trends. A fundamental cause of these phenomena derives from increased stored energy inside ocean waters. Geophysical and biochemical modeling of crop production can elucidate complex mechanisms under seasonal climate anomalies. The models have progressed through their combination with global climate reanalysis, environmental satellite data, and harvest data on the ground. This study examined adaptation of crop production to advancing abnormal phenomena related to global climate change. Global environmental surface conditions, i.e., vegetation, surface air temperature, and sea surface temperature observed by satellites, enable global modeling of crop production and monitoring. Basic streams of the concepts of modeling rely upon continental energy flow and carbon circulation among crop vegetation, land surface atmosphere combining energy advection from ocean surface anomalies. Global environmental surface conditions, e.g., vegetation, surface air temperature, and sea surface temperature observed by satellites, enable global modeling of crop production and monitoring. The method of validating the modeling relies upon carbon partitioning in biomass and grains through carbon flow by photosynthesis using carbon dioxide unit in photosynthesis. Results of computations done for this study show global distributions of actual evaporation, stomata opening, and photosynthesis, presenting mechanisms related to advection effects from SST anomalies in the Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian oceans on global and continental croplands. For North America, climate effects appear clearly in severe atmospheric phenomena, which have caused drought and forest fires through seasonal advection thermal effects on potential evaporation by winds blowing eastward over California, the Grand Canyon, Monument Valley, and into the Great Plains. These coupled SST photosynthesis models constitute an advanced approach for crop modeling in the era of recent new climate.

Climate Change and Global Food Security: Food Access, Utilization, and the US Food System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown, M. E.; Antle, J. M.; Backlund, P. W.; Carr, E. R.; Easterling, W. E.; Walsh, M.; Ammann, C. M.; Attavanich, W.; Barrett, C. B.; Bellemare, M. F.; Dancheck, V.; Funk, C.; Grace, K.; Ingram, J. S. I.; Jiang, H.; Maletta, H.; Mata, T.; Murray, A.; Ngugi, M.; Ojima, D. S.; O'Neill, B. C.; Tebaldi, C.

2015-12-01

This paper will summarize results from the USDA report entitled 'Climate change, Global Food Security and the U.S. Food system'. The report focuses on the impact of climate change on global food security, defined as "when all people at all times have physical, social, and economic access to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life". The assessment brought together authors and contributors from twenty federal, academic, nongovernmental, intergovernmental, and private organizations in four countries to identify climate change effects on food security through 2100, and analyze the U.S.'s likely connections with that world. This talk will describe how climate change will likely affect food access and food utilization, and summarize how the U.S. food system contributes to global food security, and will be affected by climate change.

Forests and climate change: forcings, feedbacks, and the climate benefits of forests.

PubMed

Bonan, Gordon B

2008-06-13

The world's forests influence climate through physical, chemical, and biological processes that affect planetary energetics, the hydrologic cycle, and atmospheric composition. These complex and nonlinear forest-atmosphere interactions can dampen or amplify anthropogenic climate change. Tropical, temperate, and boreal reforestation and afforestation attenuate global warming through carbon sequestration. Biogeophysical feedbacks can enhance or diminish this negative climate forcing. Tropical forests mitigate warming through evaporative cooling, but the low albedo of boreal forests is a positive climate forcing. The evaporative effect of temperate forests is unclear. The net climate forcing from these and other processes is not known. Forests are under tremendous pressure from global change. Interdisciplinary science that integrates knowledge of the many interacting climate services of forests with the impacts of global change is necessary to identify and understand as yet unexplored feedbacks in the Earth system and the potential of forests to mitigate climate change.

Only an integrated approach across academia, enterprise, governments, and global agencies can tackle the public health impact of climate change

PubMed Central

Stordalen, Gunhild A.; Rocklöv, Joacim; Nilsson, Maria; Byass, Peter

2013-01-01

Background Despite considerable global attention to the issues of climate change, relatively little priority has been given to the likely effects on human health of current and future changes in the global climate. We identify three major societal determinants that influence the impact of climate change on human health, namely the application of scholarship and knowledge; economic and commercial considerations; and actions of governments and global agencies. Discussion The three major areas are each discussed in terms of the ways in which they facilitate and frustrate attempts to protect human health from the effects of climate change. Academia still pays very little attention to the effects of climate on health in poorer countries. Enterprise is starting to recognise that healthy commerce depends on healthy people, and so climate change presents long-term threats if it compromises health. Governments and international agencies are very active, but often face immovable vested interests in other sectors. Overall, there tends to be too little interaction between the three areas, and this means that potential synergies and co-benefits are not always realised. Conclusion More attention from academia, enterprise, and international agencies needs to be given to the potential threats the climate change presents to human health. However, there needs to also be much closer collaboration between all three areas in order to capitalise on possible synergies that can be achieved between them. PMID:23653920

Global Climate Change Effects on Venezuela's Vulnerability to Chagas Disease is Linked to the Geographic Distribution of Five Triatomine Species.

PubMed

Ceccarelli, Soledad; Rabinovich, Jorge E

2015-11-01

We analyzed the possible effects of global climate change on the potential geographic distribution in Venezuela of five species of triatomines (Eratyrus mucronatus (Stal, 1859), Panstrongylus geniculatus (Latreille, 1811), Rhodnius prolixus (Stål, 1859), Rhodnius robustus (Larrousse, 1927), and Triatoma maculata (Erichson, 1848)), vectors of Trypanosoma cruzi, the etiological agent of Chagas disease. To obtain the future potential geographic distributions, expressed as climatic niche suitability, we modeled the presences of these species using two IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) future emission scenarios of global climate change (A1B and B1), the Global Climate model CSIRO Mark 3.0, and three periods of future projections (years 2020, 2060, and 2080). After estimating with the MaxEnt software the future climatic niche suitability for each species, scenario, and period of future projections, we estimated a series of indexes of Venezuela's vulnerability at the county, state, and country level, measured as the number of people exposed due to the changes in the geographical distribution of the five triatomine species analyzed. Despite that this is not a measure of the risk of Chagas disease transmission, we conclude that possible future effects of global climate change on the Venezuelan population vulnerability show a slightly decreasing trend, even taking into account future population growth; we can expect fewer locations in Venezuela where an average Venezuelan citizen would be exposed to triatomines in the next 50-70 yr. © The Authors 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Greenhouse gas policy influences climate via direct effects of land-use change

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jones, Andrew D.; Collins, William D.; Edmonds, James A.

2013-06-01

Proposed climate mitigation measures do not account for direct biophysical climate impacts of land-use change (LUC), nor do the stabilization targets modeled for the 5th Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). To examine the significance of such effects on global and regional patterns of climate change, a baseline and alternative scenario of future anthropogenic activity are simulated within the Integrated Earth System Model, which couples the Global Change Assessment Model, Global Land-use Model, and Community Earth System Model. The alternative scenario has high biofuel utilization and approximately 50% less global forest cover compared to the baseline, standardmore » RCP4.5 scenario. Both scenarios stabilize radiative forcing from atmospheric constituents at 4.5 W/m2 by 2100. Thus, differences between their climate predictions quantify the biophysical effects of LUC. Offline radiative transfer and land model simulations are also utilized to identify forcing and feedback mechanisms driving the coupled response. Boreal deforestation is found to strongly influence climate due to increased albedo coupled with a regional-scale water vapor feedback. Globally, the alternative scenario yields a 21st century warming trend that is 0.5 °C cooler than baseline, driven by a 1 W/m2 mean decrease in radiative forcing that is distributed unevenly around the globe. Some regions are cooler in the alternative scenario than in 2005. These results demonstrate that neither climate change nor actual radiative forcing are uniquely related to atmospheric forcing targets such as those found in the RCP’s, but rather depend on particulars of the socioeconomic pathways followed to meet each target.« less

Application of solar max ACRIM data to analyze solar-driven climatic variability on Earth

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hoffert, M. I.

1986-01-01

Terrestrial climatic effects associated with solar variability have been proposed for at least a century, but could not be assessed quantitatively owing to observational uncertainities in solar flux variations. Measurements from 1980 to 1984 by the Active Cavity Radiometer Irradiance Monitor (ACRIM), capable of resolving fluctuations above the sensible atmosphere less than 0.1% of the solar constant, permit direct albeit preliminary assessments of solar forcing effects on global temperatures during this period. The global temperature response to ACRIM-measured fluctuations was computed from 1980 to 1985 using the NYU transient climate model including thermal inertia effects of the world ocean; and compared the results with observations of recent temperature trends. Monthly mean ACRIM-driven global surface temperature fluctuations computed with the climate model are an order of magnitude smaller, of order 0.01 C. In constrast, global mean surface temperature observations indicate an approx. 0.1 C increase during this period. Solar variability is therefore likely to have been a minor factor in global climate change during this period compared with variations in atmospheric albedo, greenhouse gases and internal self-inducedoscillations. It was not possible to extend the applicability of the measured flux variations to longer periods since a possible correlation of luminosity with solar annual activity is not supported by statistical analysis. The continuous monitoring of solar flux by satellite-based instruments over timescales of 20 years or more comparable to timescales for thermal relaxation of the oceans and of the solar cycle itself is needed to resolve the question of long-term solar variation effects on climate.

The Increase of Exotic Zoonotic Helminth Infections: The Impact of Urbanization, Climate Change and Globalization.

PubMed

Gordon, Catherine A; McManus, Donald P; Jones, Malcolm K; Gray, Darren J; Gobert, Geoffrey N

2016-01-01

Zoonotic parasitic diseases are increasingly impacting human populations due to the effects of globalization, urbanization and climate change. Here we review the recent literature on the most important helminth zoonoses, including reports of incidence and prevalence. We discuss those helminth diseases which are increasing in endemic areas and consider their geographical spread into new regions within the framework of globalization, urbanization and climate change to determine the effect these variables are having on disease incidence, transmission and the associated challenges presented for public health initiatives, including control and elimination. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

[Research progress in water use efficiency of plants under global climate change].

PubMed

Wang, Qing-wei; Yu, Da-pao; Dai, Li-min; Zhou, Li; Zhou, Wang-ming; Qi, Guang; Qi, Lin; Ye, Yu-jing

2010-12-01

Global climate change is one of the most concerned environmental problems in the world since the 1980s, giving significant effects on the plant productivity and the water transport and use patterns. These effects would be reflected in the water use efficiency (WUE) of individual plants, communities, and ecosystems, and ultimately, in the vegetation distribution pattern, species composition, and ecosystem structure. To study the WUE of plants would help to the understanding and forecasting of the responses of terrestrial vegetation to global climate change, and to the adoption of adaptive strategies. This paper introduced the concept of plant WUE and the corresponding measurement techniques at the scales of leaf, individual plant, community, and ecosystem, and reviewed the research progress in the effects of important climatic factors such as elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration, precipitation pattern, nitrogen deposition, and their combination on the plant WUE, as well as the variation characteristics of plant WUE and the adaptive survival strategies of plants under different site conditions. Some problems related to plant WUE research were pointed out, and the future research directions in the context of global climate change were prospected.

Global Warming: Understanding and Teaching the Forecast. Part A The Greenhouse Effect.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Andrews, Bill

1993-01-01

Provides information necessary for an interdisciplinary analysis of the greenhouse effect, enhanced greenhouse effect, global warming, global climate change, greenhouse gases, carbon dioxide, and scientific study of global warming for students grades 4-12. Several activity ideas accompany the information. (LZ)

The Climate Effects of Deforestation the Amazon Rainforest under Global Warming Conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Werth, D.; Avissar, R.

2006-12-01

Replacement of tropical rainforests has been observed to have a strong drying effect in Amazon simulations, with effects reaching high into the atmospheric column and into the midlatitudes. The drying effects of deforestation, however, can be moderated by the effects of global warming, which should accelerate the hydrologic cycle of the Amazon. The effects of a prescribed, time-varying Amazon deforestation done in conjunction with a steady, moderate increase in CO2 concentrations are determined using a climate model. The model agrees with previous studies when each forcing is applied individually - compared to a control run, Amazon deforestation decreases the local precipitation and global warming increases it. When both are applied, however, the precipitation and other hydrologic variables decrease, but to a lesser extent than when deforestation alone was applied. In effect, the two effects act opposite to one another and bring the simulated climate closer to that of the control.

Integrative Analysis of Desert Dust Size and Abundance Suggests Less Dust Climate Cooling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kok, Jasper F.; Ridley, David A.; Zhou, Qing; Miller, Ron L.; Zhao, Chun; Heald, Colette L.; Ward, Daniel S.; Albani, Samuel; Haustein, Karsten

2017-01-01

Desert dust aerosols affect Earths global energy balance through interactions with radiation, clouds, and ecosystems. But the magnitudes of these effects are so uncertain that it remains unclear whether atmospheric dust has a net warming or cooling effect on global climate. Consequently, it is still uncertain whether large changes in atmospheric dust loading over the past century have slowed or accelerated anthropogenic climate change, and the climate impact of possible future alterations in dust loading is similarly disputed. Here we use an integrative analysis of dust aerosol sizes and abundance to constrain the climatic impact of dust through direct interactions with radiation. Using a combination of observational, experimental, and model data, we find that atmospheric dust is substantially coarser than represented in current climate models. Since coarse dust warms global climate, the dust direct radiative effect (DRE) is likely less cooling than the 0.4 W m superscript 2 estimated by models in a current ensemble. We constrain the dust DRE to -0.20 (-0.48 to +0.20) W m superscript 2, which suggests that the dust DRE produces only about half the cooling that current models estimate, and raises the possibility that dust DRE is actually net warming the planet.

Quantitative Estimation of the Climatic Effects of Carbon Transferred by International Trade.

PubMed

Wei, Ting; Dong, Wenjie; Moore, John; Yan, Qing; Song, Yi; Yang, Zhiyong; Yuan, Wenping; Chou, Jieming; Cui, Xuefeng; Yan, Xiaodong; Wei, Zhigang; Guo, Yan; Yang, Shili; Tian, Di; Lin, Pengfei; Yang, Song; Wen, Zhiping; Lin, Hui; Chen, Min; Feng, Guolin; Jiang, Yundi; Zhu, Xian; Chen, Juan; Wei, Xin; Shi, Wen; Zhang, Zhiguo; Dong, Juan; Li, Yexin; Chen, Deliang

2016-06-22

Carbon transfer via international trade affects the spatial pattern of global carbon emissions by redistributing emissions related to production of goods and services. It has potential impacts on attribution of the responsibility of various countries for climate change and formulation of carbon-reduction policies. However, the effect of carbon transfer on climate change has not been quantified. Here, we present a quantitative estimate of climatic impacts of carbon transfer based on a simple CO2 Impulse Response Function and three Earth System Models. The results suggest that carbon transfer leads to a migration of CO2 by 0.1-3.9 ppm or 3-9% of the rise in the global atmospheric concentrations from developed countries to developing countries during 1990-2005 and potentially reduces the effectiveness of the Kyoto Protocol by up to 5.3%. However, the induced atmospheric CO2 concentration and climate changes (e.g., in temperature, ocean heat content, and sea-ice) are very small and lie within observed interannual variability. Given continuous growth of transferred carbon emissions and their proportion in global total carbon emissions, the climatic effect of traded carbon is likely to become more significant in the future, highlighting the need to consider carbon transfer in future climate negotiations.

Contributions to Global Augmented Compound Urban Heat Extreme (ACUTE) from Climate Change and the Urban Heat Island Effect

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, K.

2017-12-01

Over the next decades, climate change is projected to increase the intensity and frequency of extreme heat events (EHEs). The severity and periodicity of these hazards are likely to be further compounded by stronger urban heat island (UHI) effects as the world continues to urbanize. However, there is little known about how greenhouse gases (GHG) induced changes in EHE will interact with UHI, and what this will mean for the exposure of urban populations to high temperature. This work aims to fill this knowledge gap by combining a mesoscale meteorological model (Weather Research Forecasting, WRF) with a global urban expansion forecast, to generate spatially explicit projections of compound urban temperature extremes through 2050. These global projections include all the urban areas in developing world. The respective contributions from GHG-induced climate change, the UHI effect, and their interaction vary across different types of urban areas. The resulting compound heat extremes will be more intense and frequent in emerging Asian and African mega urban regions, located in tropical/subtropical climates, due to their unprecedented sizes and the significantly reduced evaporation. Previous studies neglecting the interaction between global climate change and regional UHI effect have underestimated exposure to heat extremes in urban areas.

Simulating global and local surface temperature changes due to Holocene anthropogenic land cover change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, F.; Vavrus, S. J.; Kutzbach, J. E.; Ruddiman, W. F.; Kaplan, J. O.; Krumhardt, K. M.

2015-12-01

Surface albedo changes from anthropogenic land cover change (ALCC) represent the second-largest negative radiative forcing behind aerosol during the industrial era. Using a new reconstruction of ALCC during the Holocene era by Kaplan et al. [2011], we quantify the local and global temperature response induced by Holocene ALCC in the Community Climate System Model, version 4 (CCSM4). With 1-degree resolution of the CCSM4 slab-ocean model,we find that Holocene ALCC cause a global cooling of 0.17 °C due to the biogeophysical effects of land-atmosphere exchange of momentum, moisture, radiative and heat fluxes. On the global scale, the biogeochemical effects of Holocene ALCC from carbon emissions dominate the biogeophysical effects by causing 0.9 °C global warming. The net effects of Holocene ALCC amount to a global warming of 0.73 °C during the pre-industrial era, which is comparable to the ~0.8 °C warming during industrial times. On local to regional scales, such as parts of Europe, North America and Asia, the biogeophysical effects of Holocene ALCC are significant and comparable to the biogeochemical effect. The lack of ocean dynamics in the 1° CCSM4 slab-ocean simulations could underestimate the climate sensitivity because of the lack of feedbacks from ocean heat transport [Kutzbach et al., 2013; Manabe and Bryan, 1985]. In 1° CCSM4 fully coupled simulations, the climate sensitivity is ~65% larger than the 1° CCSM4 slab-ocean simulations during the Holocene (5.3 °C versus 3.2 °C) [Kutzbach et al., 2013]. With this greater climate sensitivity, the biogeochemical effects of Holocene ALCC could have caused a global warming of ~1.5 °C, and the net biogeophysical and biogeochemical effects of Holocene ALCC could cause a global warming of 1.2 °C during the preindustrial era in our simulations, which is 50% higher than the global warming of ~0.8 °C during industrial times.

Assessing agricultural risks of climate change in the 21st century in a global gridded crop model intercomparison

PubMed Central

Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Elliott, Joshua; Deryng, Delphine; Ruane, Alex C.; Müller, Christoph; Arneth, Almut; Boote, Kenneth J.; Folberth, Christian; Glotter, Michael; Khabarov, Nikolay; Neumann, Kathleen; Piontek, Franziska; Pugh, Thomas A. M.; Schmid, Erwin; Stehfest, Elke; Yang, Hong; Jones, James W.

2014-01-01

Here we present the results from an intercomparison of multiple global gridded crop models (GGCMs) within the framework of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project and the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project. Results indicate strong negative effects of climate change, especially at higher levels of warming and at low latitudes; models that include explicit nitrogen stress project more severe impacts. Across seven GGCMs, five global climate models, and four representative concentration pathways, model agreement on direction of yield changes is found in many major agricultural regions at both low and high latitudes; however, reducing uncertainty in sign of response in mid-latitude regions remains a challenge. Uncertainties related to the representation of carbon dioxide, nitrogen, and high temperature effects demonstrated here show that further research is urgently needed to better understand effects of climate change on agricultural production and to devise targeted adaptation strategies. PMID:24344314

Assessing Agricultural Risks of Climate Change in the 21st Century in a Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rosenzweig, Cynthia E.; Elliott, Joshua; Deryng, Delphine; Ruane, Alex C.; Mueller, Christoph; Arneth, Almut; Boote, Kenneth J.; Folberth, Christian; Glotter, Michael; Khabarov, Nikolay

2014-01-01

Here we present the results from an intercomparison of multiple global gridded crop models (GGCMs) within the framework of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project and the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project. Results indicate strong negative effects of climate change, especially at higher levels of warming and at low latitudes; models that include explicit nitrogen stress project more severe impacts. Across seven GGCMs, five global climate models, and four representative concentration pathways, model agreement on direction of yield changes is found in many major agricultural regions at both low and high latitudes; however, reducing uncertainty in sign of response in mid-latitude regions remains a challenge. Uncertainties related to the representation of carbon dioxide, nitrogen, and high temperature effects demonstrated here show that further research is urgently needed to better understand effects of climate change on agricultural production and to devise targeted adaptation strategies.

Atmospheric and oceanographic research review, 1978. [global weather, ocean/air interactions, and climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1978-01-01

Research activities related to global weather, ocean/air interactions, and climate are reported. The global weather research is aimed at improving the assimilation of satellite-derived data in weather forecast models, developing analysis/forecast models that can more fully utilize satellite data, and developing new measures of forecast skill to properly assess the impact of satellite data on weather forecasting. The oceanographic research goal is to understand and model the processes that determine the general circulation of the oceans, focusing on those processes that affect sea surface temperature and oceanic heat storage, which are the oceanographic variables with the greatest influence on climate. The climate research objective is to support the development and effective utilization of space-acquired data systems in climate forecast models and to conduct sensitivity studies to determine the affect of lower boundary conditions on climate and predictability studies to determine which global climate features can be modeled either deterministically or statistically.

Global Warming - Myth or Reality?, The Erring Ways of Climatology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leroux, Marcel

In the global-warming debate, definitive answers to questions about ultimate causes and effects remain elusive. In Global Warming: Myth or Reality? Marcel Leroux seeks to separate fact from fiction in this critical debate from a climatological perspective. Beginning with a review of the dire hypotheses for climate trends, the author describes the history of the 1998 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and many subsequent conferences. He discusses the main conclusions of the three IPCC reports and the predicted impact on global temperatures, rainfall, weather and climate, while highlighting the mounting confusion and sensationalism of reports in the media.

Disease in a more variable and unpredictable climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McMahon, T. A.; Raffel, T.; Rohr, J. R.; Halstead, N.; Venesky, M.; Romansic, J.

2014-12-01

Global climate change is shifting the dynamics of infectious diseases of humans and wildlife with potential adverse consequences for disease control. Despite this, the role of global climate change in the decline of biodiversity and the emergence of infectious diseases remains controversial. Climate change is expected to increase climate variability in addition to increasing mean temperatures, making climate less predictable. However, few empirical or theoretical studies have considered the effects of climate variability or predictability on disease, despite it being likely that hosts and parasites will have differential responses to climatic shifts. Here we present a theoretical framework for how temperature variation and its predictability influence disease risk by affecting host and parasite acclimation responses. Laboratory experiments and field data on disease-associated frog declines in Latin America support this framework and provide evidence that unpredictable temperature fluctuations, on both monthly and diurnal timescales, decrease frog resistance to the pathogenic chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd). Furthermore, the pattern of temperature-dependent growth of the fungus on frogs was inconsistent with the pattern of Bd growth in culture, emphasizing the importance of accounting for the host-parasite interaction when predicting climate-dependent disease dynamics. Consistent with our laboratory experiments, increased regional temperature variability associated with global El Niño climatic events was the best predictor of widespread amphibian losses in the genus Atelopus. Thus, incorporating the effects of small-scale temporal variability in climate can greatly improve our ability to predict the effects of climate change on disease.

The influence of global warming on natural disasters and their public health outcomes.

PubMed

Diaz, James H

2007-01-01

With a documented increase in average global surface temperatures of 0.6 degrees C since 1975, Earth now appears to be warming due to a variety of climatic effects, most notably the cascading effects of greenhouse gas emissions resulting from human activities. There remains, however, no universal agreement on how rapidly, regionally, or asymmetrically the planet will warm or on the true impact of global warming on natural disasters and public health outcomes. Most reports to date of the public health impact of global warming have been anecdotal and retrospective in design and have focused on the increase in heat-stroke deaths following heat waves and on outbreaks of airborne and arthropod-borne diseases following tropical rains and flooding that resulted from fluctuations in ocean temperatures. The effects of global warming on rainfall and drought, tropical cyclone and tsunami activity, and tectonic and volcanic activity will have far-reaching public health effects not only on environmentally associated disease outbreaks but also on global food supplies and population movements. As a result of these and other recognized associations between climate change and public health consequences, many of which have been confounded by deficiencies in public health infrastructure and scientific debates over whether climate changes are spawned by atmospheric cycles or anthropogenic influences, the active responses to progressive climate change must include combinations of economic, environmental, legal, regulatory, and, most importantly, public health measures.

Climate vs. carbon dioxide controls on biomass burning: a model analysis of the glacial-interglacial contrast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Calvo, M. Martin; Prentice, I. C.; Harrison, S. P.

2014-02-01

Climate controls fire regimes through its influence on the amount and types of fuel present and their dryness; CO2 availability, in turn, constrains primary production by limiting photosynthetic activity in plants. However, although fuel accumulation depends on biomass production, and hence CO2 availability, the links between atmospheric CO2 and biomass burning are not well known. Here a fire-enabled dynamic global vegetation model (the Land surface Processes and eXchanges model, LPX) is used to attribute glacial-interglacial changes in biomass burning to CO2 increase, which would be expected to increase primary production and therefore fuel loads even in the absence of climate change, vs. climate change effects. Four general circulation models provided Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) climate anomalies - that is, differences from the pre-industrial (PI) control climate - from the Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase 2, allowing the construction of four scenarios for LGM climate. Modelled carbon fluxes in biomass burning were corrected for the model's observed biases in contemporary biome-average values. With LGM climate and low CO2 (185 ppm) effects included, the modelled global flux was 70 to 80% lower at the LGM than in PI time. LGM climate with pre-industrial CO2 (280 ppm) however yielded unrealistic results, with global and Northern Hemisphere biomass burning fluxes greater than in the pre-industrial climate. Using the PI CO2 concentration increased the modelled LGM biomass burning fluxes for all climate models and latitudinal bands to between four and ten times their values under LGM CO2 concentration. It is inferred that a substantial part of the increase in biomass burning after the LGM must be attributed to the effect of increasing CO2 concentration on productivity and fuel load. Today, by analogy, both rising CO2 and global warming must be considered as risk factors for increasing biomass burning. Both effects need to be included in models to project future fire risks.

Enhancing Primary School Students' Knowledge about Global Warming and Environmental Attitude Using Climate Change Activities

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Karpudewan, Mageswary; Roth, Wolff-Michael; Bin Abdullah, Mohd Nor Syahrir

2015-01-01

Climate change generally and global warming specifically have become a common feature of the daily news. Due to widespread recognition of the adverse consequences of climate change on human lives, concerted societal effort has been taken to address it (e.g. by means of the science curriculum). This study was designed to test the effect that…

The response of terrestrial ecosystems to global climate change: Towards an integrated approach

Treesearch

Lindsey E. Rustad

2008-01-01

Accumulating evidence points to an anthropogenic 'fingerprint' on the global climate change that has occurred in the last century. Climate change has, and will continue to have, profound effects on the structure and function of terrestrial ecosystems. As such, there is a critical need to continue to develop a sound scientific basis for national and...

Genecological approaches to predicting the effects of climate change on plant populations

Treesearch

Francis F. Kilkenny

2015-01-01

Climate change threatens native plant populations and plant communities globally. It is critical that land managers have a clear understanding of climate change impacts on plant species and populations so that restoration efforts can be adjusted accordingly. This paper reviews the develop.ment and use of seed transfer guidelines for restoration in the face of global...

Shifting relative importance of climatic constraints on land surface phenology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garonna, Irene; de Jong, Rogier; Stöckli, Reto; Schmid, Bernhard; Schenkel, David; Schimel, David; Schaepman, Michael E.

2018-02-01

Land surface phenology (LSP), the study of seasonal dynamics of vegetated land surfaces from remote sensing, is a key indicator of global change, that both responds to and influences weather and climate. The effects of climatic changes on LSP depend on the relative importance of climatic constraints in specific regions—which are not well understood at global scale. Understanding the climatic constraints that underlie LSP is crucial for explaining climate change effects on global vegetation phenology. We used a combination of modelled and remotely-sensed vegetation activity records to quantify the interplay of three climatic constraints on land surface phenology (namely minimum temperature, moisture availability, and photoperiod), as well as the dynamic nature of these constraints. Our study examined trends and the relative importance of the three constrains at the start and the end of the growing season over eight global environmental zones, for the past three decades. Our analysis revealed widespread shifts in the relative importance of climatic constraints in the temperate and boreal biomes during the 1982-2011 period. These changes in the relative importance of the three climatic constraints, which ranged up to 8% since 1982 levels, varied with latitude and between start and end of the growing season. We found a reduced influence of minimum temperature on start and end of season in all environmental zones considered, with a biome-dependent effect on moisture and photoperiod constraints. For the end of season, we report that the influence of moisture has on average increased for both the temperate and boreal biomes over 8.99 million km2. A shifting relative importance of climatic constraints on LSP has implications both for understanding changes and for improving how they may be modelled at large scales.

Environmental Progression: The Psychological Justification for Reframing Climate Change and Global Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Veldey, S. H.

2016-12-01

On-going research in climate science communication through environmental media has uncovered critical barriers to reducing denial and increasing agency in addressing the threat of climate change. Similar to framing of our changing environment as "global warming", the term "climate change" also fails to properly frame the most critical challenge our species has faced. In a set of preliminary studies, significant changes in climate crisis denial, both positive and negative, have resulted from different media messaging. Continuation of this research utilizes social judgement theory (SJT) to classify a broader spectrum of effective avenues for environmental communication. The specificity of the terms global warming and climate change limit inclusion of issues critical to understanding their impacts. Now that the masses know what climate change is, it's time to teach them what it means.

Projected change in global fisheries revenues under climate change

PubMed Central

Lam, Vicky W. Y.; Cheung, William W. L.; Reygondeau, Gabriel; Sumaila, U. Rashid

2016-01-01

Previous studies highlight the winners and losers in fisheries under climate change based on shifts in biomass, species composition and potential catches. Understanding how climate change is likely to alter the fisheries revenues of maritime countries is a crucial next step towards the development of effective socio-economic policy and food sustainability strategies to mitigate and adapt to climate change. Particularly, fish prices and cross-oceans connections through distant water fishing operations may largely modify the projected climate change impacts on fisheries revenues. However, these factors have not formally been considered in global studies. Here, using climate-living marine resources simulation models, we show that global fisheries revenues could drop by 35% more than the projected decrease in catches by the 2050 s under high CO2 emission scenarios. Regionally, the projected increases in fish catch in high latitudes may not translate into increases in revenues because of the increasing dominance of low value fish, and the decrease in catches by these countries’ vessels operating in more severely impacted distant waters. Also, we find that developing countries with high fisheries dependency are negatively impacted. Our results suggest the need to conduct full-fledged economic analyses of the potential economic effects of climate change on global marine fisheries. PMID:27600330

Climate Change, Human Health, and Biomedical Research: Analysis of the National Institutes of Health Research Portfolio

PubMed Central

Balbus, John M.; Christian, Carole; Haque, Ehsanul; Howe, Sally E.; Newton, Sheila A.; Reid, Britt C.; Roberts, Luci; Wilhelm, Erin; Rosenthal, Joshua P.

2013-01-01

Background: According to a wide variety of analyses and projections, the potential effects of global climate change on human health are large and diverse. The U.S. National Institutes of Health (NIH), through its basic, clinical, and population research portfolio of grants, has been increasing efforts to understand how the complex interrelationships among humans, ecosystems, climate, climate variability, and climate change affect domestic and global health. Objectives: In this commentary we present a systematic review and categorization of the fiscal year (FY) 2008 NIH climate and health research portfolio. Methods: A list of candidate climate and health projects funded from FY 2008 budget appropriations were identified and characterized based on their relevance to climate change and health and based on climate pathway, health impact, study type, and objective. Results: This analysis identified seven FY 2008 projects focused on climate change, 85 climate-related projects, and 706 projects that focused on disease areas associated with climate change but did not study those associations. Of the nearly 53,000 awards that NIH made in 2008, approximately 0.17% focused on or were related to climate. Conclusions: Given the nature and scale of the potential effects of climate change on human health and the degree of uncertainty that we have about these effects, we think that it is helpful for the NIH to engage in open discussions with science and policy communities about government-wide needs and opportunities in climate and health, and about how NIH’s strengths in human health research can contribute to understanding the health implications of global climate change. This internal review has been used to inform more recent initiatives by the NIH in climate and health. PMID:23552460

Climate change, human health, and biomedical research: analysis of the National Institutes of Health research portfolio.

PubMed

Jessup, Christine M; Balbus, John M; Christian, Carole; Haque, Ehsanul; Howe, Sally E; Newton, Sheila A; Reid, Britt C; Roberts, Luci; Wilhelm, Erin; Rosenthal, Joshua P

2013-04-01

According to a wide variety of analyses and projections, the potential effects of global climate change on human health are large and diverse. The U.S. National Institutes of Health (NIH), through its basic, clinical, and population research portfolio of grants, has been increasing efforts to understand how the complex interrelationships among humans, ecosystems, climate, climate variability, and climate change affect domestic and global health. In this commentary we present a systematic review and categorization of the fiscal year (FY) 2008 NIH climate and health research portfolio. A list of candidate climate and health projects funded from FY 2008 budget appropriations were identified and characterized based on their relevance to climate change and health and based on climate pathway, health impact, study type, and objective. This analysis identified seven FY 2008 projects focused on climate change, 85 climate-related projects, and 706 projects that focused on disease areas associated with climate change but did not study those associations. Of the nearly 53,000 awards that NIH made in 2008, approximately 0.17% focused on or were related to climate. Given the nature and scale of the potential effects of climate change on human health and the degree of uncertainty that we have about these effects, we think that it is helpful for the NIH to engage in open discussions with science and policy communities about government-wide needs and opportunities in climate and health, and about how NIH's strengths in human health research can contribute to understanding the health implications of global climate change. This internal review has been used to inform more recent initiatives by the NIH in climate and health.

Long-term global temperature variations under total solar irradiance, cosmic rays, and volcanic activity.

PubMed

Biktash, Lilia

2017-07-01

The effects of total solar irradiance (TSI) and volcanic activity on long-term global temperature variations during solar cycles 19-23 were studied. It was shown that a large proportion of climate variations can be explained by the mechanism of action of TSI and cosmic rays (CRs) on the state of the lower atmosphere and other meteorological parameters. The role of volcanic signals in the 11-year variations of the Earth's climate can be expressed as several years of global temperature drop. Conversely, it was shown that the effects of solar, geophysical, and human activity on climate change interact. It was concluded that more detailed investigations of these very complicated relationships are required, in order to be able to understand issues that affect ecosystems on a global scale.

Mental health effects of climate change.

PubMed

Padhy, Susanta Kumar; Sarkar, Sidharth; Panigrahi, Mahima; Paul, Surender

2015-01-01

We all know that 2014 has been declared as the hottest year globally by the Meteorological department of United States of America. Climate change is a global challenge which is likely to affect the mankind in substantial ways. Not only climate change is expected to affect physical health, it is also likely to affect mental health. Increasing ambient temperatures is likely to increase rates of aggression and violent suicides, while prolonged droughts due to climate change can lead to more number of farmer suicides. Droughts otherwise can lead to impaired mental health and stress. Increased frequency of disasters with climate change can lead to posttraumatic stress disorder, adjustment disorder, and depression. Changes in climate and global warming may require population to migrate, which can lead to acculturation stress. It can also lead to increased rates of physical illnesses, which secondarily would be associated with psychological distress. The possible effects of mitigation measures on mental health are also discussed. The paper concludes with a discussion of what can and should be done to tackle the expected mental health issues consequent to climate change.

Comparing impacts of climate change and mitigation on global agriculture by 2050

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Meijl, Hans; Havlik, Petr; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Stehfest, Elke; Witzke, Peter; Pérez Domínguez, Ignacio; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; van Dijk, Michiel; Doelman, Jonathan; Fellmann, Thomas; Humpenöder, Florian; Koopman, Jason F. L.; Müller, Christoph; Popp, Alexander; Tabeau, Andrzej; Valin, Hugo; van Zeist, Willem-Jan

2018-06-01

Systematic model inter-comparison helps to narrow discrepancies in the analysis of the future impact of climate change on agricultural production. This paper presents a set of alternative scenarios by five global climate and agro-economic models. Covering integrated assessment (IMAGE), partial equilibrium (CAPRI, GLOBIOM, MAgPIE) and computable general equilibrium (MAGNET) models ensures a good coverage of biophysical and economic agricultural features. These models are harmonized with respect to basic model drivers, to assess the range of potential impacts of climate change on the agricultural sector by 2050. Moreover, they quantify the economic consequences of stringent global emission mitigation efforts, such as non-CO2 emission taxes and land-based mitigation options, to stabilize global warming at 2 °C by the end of the century under different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. A key contribution of the paper is a vis-à-vis comparison of climate change impacts relative to the impact of mitigation measures. In addition, our scenario design allows assessing the impact of the residual climate change on the mitigation challenge. From a global perspective, the impact of climate change on agricultural production by mid-century is negative but small. A larger negative effect on agricultural production, most pronounced for ruminant meat production, is observed when emission mitigation measures compliant with a 2 °C target are put in place. Our results indicate that a mitigation strategy that embeds residual climate change effects (RCP2.6) has a negative impact on global agricultural production relative to a no-mitigation strategy with stronger climate impacts (RCP6.0). However, this is partially due to the limited impact of the climate change scenarios by 2050. The magnitude of price changes is different amongst models due to methodological differences. Further research to achieve a better harmonization is needed, especially regarding endogenous food and feed demand, including substitution across individual commodities, and endogenous technological change.

Impacts of climate change on the global forest sector

USGS Publications Warehouse

Perez-Garcia, J.; Joyce, L.A.; McGuire, A.D.; Xiao, X.

2002-01-01

The path and magnitude of future anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide will likely influence changes in climate that may impact the global forest sector. These responses in the global forest sector may have implications for international efforts to stabilize the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide. This study takes a step toward including the role of global forest sector in integrated assessments of the global carbon cycle by linking global models of climate dynamics, ecosystem processes and forest economics to assess the potential responses of the global forest sector to different levels of greenhouse gas emissions. We utilize three climate scenarios and two economic scenarios to represent a range of greenhouse gas emissions and economic behavior. At the end of the analysis period (2040), the potential responses in regional forest growing stock simulated by the global ecosystem model range from decreases and increases for the low emissions climate scenario to increases in all regions for the high emissions climate scenario. The changes in vegetation are used to adjust timber supply in the softwood and hardwood sectors of the economic model. In general, the global changes in welfare are positive, but small across all scenarios. At the regional level, the changes in welfare can be large and either negative or positive. Markets and trade in forest products play important roles in whether a region realizes any gains associated with climate change. In general, regions with the lowest wood fiber production cost are able to expand harvests. Trade in forest products leads to lower prices elsewhere. The low-cost regions expand market shares and force higher-cost regions to decrease their harvests. Trade produces different economic gains and losses across the globe even though, globally, economic welfare increases. The results of this study indicate that assumptions within alternative climate scenarios and about trade in forest products are important factors that strongly influence the effects of climate change on the global forest sector.

Long-term climate change and the geochemical cycle of carbon

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Marshall, Hal G.; Walker, James C. G.; Kuhn, William R.

1988-01-01

The response of the coupled climate-geochemical system to changes in paleography is examined in terms of the biogeochemical carbon cycle. The simple, zonally averaged energy balance climate model combined with a geochemical carbon cycle model, which was developed to study climate changes, is described. The effects of latitudinal distributions of the continents on the carbon cycle are investigated, and the global silicate weathering rate as a function of latitude is measured. It is observed that a concentration of land area at high altitudes results in a high CO2 partial pressure and a high global average temperature, and for land at low latitudes a cold globe and ice are detected. It is noted that the CO2 greenhouse feedback effect is potentially strong and has a stabilizing effect on the climate system.

Climate change and economic growth: a heterogeneous panel data approach.

PubMed

Sequeira, Tiago Neves; Santos, Marcelo Serra; Magalhães, Manuela

2018-05-31

Climate change is a global phenomenon. Its impact on economic growth must therefore be analyzed in accordance with its (time-varying) common effects. We present an econometric analysis that evaluates this effect taking into account its global nature. Contrary to previous evidence that ignores the global effects, we obtain that the rising temperature has not decreased growth in real GDP per capita in the second half of the twentieth century for the world countries. However, we obtain a negative effect of rising temperatures and a positive effect of rising precipitation in poor countries. This positive effect of rising precipitation is also confirmed for hot and temperate countries.

Solar activities and Climate change hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hady, A. A., II

2014-12-01

Throughout the geological history of Earth, climate change is one of the recurrent natural hazards. In recent history, the impact of man brought about additional climatic change. Solar activities have had notable effect on palaeoclimatic changes. Contemporary, both solar activities and building-up of green-house gases effect added to the climatic changes. This paper discusses if the global worming caused by the green-house gases effect will be equal or less than the global cooling resulting from the solar activities. In this respect, we refer to the Modern Dalton Minimum (MDM) which stated that starting from year 2005 for the next 40 years; the earth's surface temperature will become cooler than nowadays. However the degree of cooling, previously mentioned in old Dalton Minimum (c. 210 y ago), will be minimized by building-up of green-house gases effect during MDM period. Regarding to the periodicities of solar activities, it is clear that now we have a new solar cycle of around 210 years. Keywords: Solar activities; solar cycles; palaeoclimatic changes; Global cooling; Modern Dalton Minimum.

Global non-linear effect of temperature on economic production.

PubMed

Burke, Marshall; Hsiang, Solomon M; Miguel, Edward

2015-11-12

Growing evidence demonstrates that climatic conditions can have a profound impact on the functioning of modern human societies, but effects on economic activity appear inconsistent. Fundamental productive elements of modern economies, such as workers and crops, exhibit highly non-linear responses to local temperature even in wealthy countries. In contrast, aggregate macroeconomic productivity of entire wealthy countries is reported not to respond to temperature, while poor countries respond only linearly. Resolving this conflict between micro and macro observations is critical to understanding the role of wealth in coupled human-natural systems and to anticipating the global impact of climate change. Here we unify these seemingly contradictory results by accounting for non-linearity at the macro scale. We show that overall economic productivity is non-linear in temperature for all countries, with productivity peaking at an annual average temperature of 13 °C and declining strongly at higher temperatures. The relationship is globally generalizable, unchanged since 1960, and apparent for agricultural and non-agricultural activity in both rich and poor countries. These results provide the first evidence that economic activity in all regions is coupled to the global climate and establish a new empirical foundation for modelling economic loss in response to climate change, with important implications. If future adaptation mimics past adaptation, unmitigated warming is expected to reshape the global economy by reducing average global incomes roughly 23% by 2100 and widening global income inequality, relative to scenarios without climate change. In contrast to prior estimates, expected global losses are approximately linear in global mean temperature, with median losses many times larger than leading models indicate.

Simulating the effects of climate and agricultural management practices on global crop yield

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deryng, D.; Sacks, W. J.; Barford, C. C.; Ramankutty, N.

2011-06-01

Climate change is expected to significantly impact global food production, and it is important to understand the potential geographic distribution of yield losses and the means to alleviate them. This study presents a new global crop model, PEGASUS 1.0 (Predicting Ecosystem Goods And Services Using Scenarios) that integrates, in addition to climate, the effect of planting dates and cultivar choices, irrigation, and fertilizer application on crop yield for maize, soybean, and spring wheat. PEGASUS combines carbon dynamics for crops with a surface energy and soil water balance model. It also benefits from the recent development of a suite of global data sets and analyses that serve as model inputs or as calibration data. These include data on crop planting and harvesting dates, crop-specific irrigated areas, a global analysis of yield gaps, and harvested area and yield of major crops. Model results for present-day climate and farm management compare reasonably well with global data. Simulated planting and harvesting dates are within the range of crop calendar observations in more than 75% of the total crop-harvested areas. Correlation of simulated and observed crop yields indicates a weighted coefficient of determination, with the weighting based on crop-harvested area, of 0.81 for maize, 0.66 for soybean, and 0.45 for spring wheat. We found that changes in temperature and precipitation as predicted by global climate models for the 2050s lead to a global yield reduction if planting and harvesting dates remain unchanged. However, adapting planting dates and cultivar choices increases yield in temperate regions and avoids 7-18% of global losses.

Global non-linear effect of temperature on economic production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burke, Marshall; Hsiang, Solomon M.; Miguel, Edward

2015-11-01

Growing evidence demonstrates that climatic conditions can have a profound impact on the functioning of modern human societies, but effects on economic activity appear inconsistent. Fundamental productive elements of modern economies, such as workers and crops, exhibit highly non-linear responses to local temperature even in wealthy countries. In contrast, aggregate macroeconomic productivity of entire wealthy countries is reported not to respond to temperature, while poor countries respond only linearly. Resolving this conflict between micro and macro observations is critical to understanding the role of wealth in coupled human-natural systems and to anticipating the global impact of climate change. Here we unify these seemingly contradictory results by accounting for non-linearity at the macro scale. We show that overall economic productivity is non-linear in temperature for all countries, with productivity peaking at an annual average temperature of 13 °C and declining strongly at higher temperatures. The relationship is globally generalizable, unchanged since 1960, and apparent for agricultural and non-agricultural activity in both rich and poor countries. These results provide the first evidence that economic activity in all regions is coupled to the global climate and establish a new empirical foundation for modelling economic loss in response to climate change, with important implications. If future adaptation mimics past adaptation, unmitigated warming is expected to reshape the global economy by reducing average global incomes roughly 23% by 2100 and widening global income inequality, relative to scenarios without climate change. In contrast to prior estimates, expected global losses are approximately linear in global mean temperature, with median losses many times larger than leading models indicate.

Global climate change and US agriculture

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Adams, Richard M.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Peart, Robert M.; Ritchie, Joe T.; Mccarl, Bruce A.

1990-01-01

Agricultural productivity is expected to be sensitive to global climate change. Models from atmospheric science, plant science, and agricultural economics are linked to explore this sensitivity. Although the results depend on the severity of climate change and the compensating effects of carbon dioxide on crop yields, the simulation suggests that irrigated acreage will expand and regional patterns of U.S. agriculture will shift. The impact of the U.S. economy strongly depends on which climate model is used.

Climate and litter quality differently modulate the effects of soil fauna on litter decomposition across biomes.

PubMed

García-Palacios, Pablo; Maestre, Fernando T; Kattge, Jens; Wall, Diana H

2013-08-01

Climate and litter quality have been identified as major drivers of litter decomposition at large spatial scales. However, the role played by soil fauna remains largely unknown, despite its importance for litter fragmentation and microbial activity. We synthesised litterbag studies to quantify the effect sizes of soil fauna on litter decomposition rates at the global and biome scales, and to assess how climate, litter quality and soil fauna interact to determine such rates. Soil fauna consistently enhanced litter decomposition at both global and biome scales (average increment ~ 37%). [corrected]. However, climate and litter quality differently modulated the effects of soil fauna on decomposition rates between biomes, from climate-driven biomes to those where climate effects were mediated by changes in litter quality. Our results advocate for the inclusion of biome-specific soil fauna effects on litter decomposition as a mean to reduce the unexplained variation in large-scale decomposition models. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Uncertainties in global aerosols and climate effects due to biofuel emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kodros, J. K.; Scott, C. E.; Farina, S. C.; Lee, Y. H.; L'Orange, C.; Volckens, J.; Pierce, J. R.

2015-04-01

Aerosol emissions from biofuel combustion impact both health and climate; however, while reducing emissions through improvements to combustion technologies will improve health, the net effect on climate is largely unconstrained. In this study, we examine sensitivities in global aerosol concentration, direct radiative climate effect, and cloud-albedo aerosol indirect climate effect to uncertainties in biofuel emission factors, optical mixing-state, and model nucleation and background SOA. We use the Goddard Earth Observing System global chemical-transport model (GEOS-Chem) with TwO Moment Aerosol Sectional (TOMAS) microphysics. The emission factors include: amount, composition, size and hygroscopicity, as well as optical mixing-state properties. We also evaluate emissions from domestic coal use, which is not biofuel but is also frequently emitted from homes. We estimate the direct radiative effect assuming different mixing states (internal, core-shell, and external) with and without absorptive organic aerosol (brown carbon). We find the global-mean direct radiative effect of biofuel emissions ranges from -0.02 to +0.06 W m-2 across all simulation/mixing state combinations with regional effects in source regions ranging from -0.2 to +1.2 W m-2. The global-mean cloud-albedo aerosol indirect effect ranges from +0.01 to -0.02 W m-2 with regional effects in source regions ranging from -1.0 to -0.05 W m-2. The direct radiative effect is strongly dependent on uncertainties in emissions mass, composition, emissions aerosol size distributions and assumed optical mixing state, while the indirect effect is dependent on the emissions mass, emissions aerosol size distribution and the choice of model nucleation and secondary organic aerosol schemes. The sign and magnitude of these effects have a strong regional dependence. We conclude that the climate effects of biofuel aerosols are largely unconstrained, and the overall sign of the aerosol effects is unclear due to uncertainties in model inputs. This uncertainty limits our ability to introduce mitigation strategies aimed at reducing biofuel black carbon emissions in order to counter warming effects from greenhouse-gases. To better understand the climate impact of particle emissions from biofuel combustion, we recommend field/laboratory measurements to narrow constraints on: (1) emissions mass, (2) emission size distribution, (3) mixing state, and (4) ratio of black carbon to organic aerosol.

Uncertainties in global aerosols and climate effects due to biofuel emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kodros, J. K.; Scott, C. E.; Farina, S. C.; Lee, Y. H.; L'Orange, C.; Volckens, J.; Pierce, J. R.

2015-08-01

Aerosol emissions from biofuel combustion impact both health and climate; however, while reducing emissions through improvements to combustion technologies will improve health, the net effect on climate is largely unconstrained. In this study, we examine sensitivities in global aerosol concentration, direct radiative climate effect, and cloud-albedo aerosol indirect climate effect to uncertainties in biofuel emission factors, optical mixing state, and model nucleation and background secondary organic aerosol (SOA). We use the Goddard Earth Observing System global chemical-transport model (GEOS-Chem) with TwO Moment Aerosol Sectional (TOMAS) microphysics. The emission factors include amount, composition, size, and hygroscopicity, as well as optical mixing-state properties. We also evaluate emissions from domestic coal use, which is not biofuel but is also frequently emitted from homes. We estimate the direct radiative effect assuming different mixing states (homogeneous, core-shell, and external) with and without absorptive organic aerosol (brown carbon). We find the global-mean direct radiative effect of biofuel emissions ranges from -0.02 to +0.06 W m-2 across all simulation/mixing-state combinations with regional effects in source regions ranging from -0.2 to +0.8 W m-2. The global-mean cloud-albedo aerosol indirect effect (AIE) ranges from +0.01 to -0.02 W m-2 with regional effects in source regions ranging from -1.0 to -0.05 W m-2. The direct radiative effect is strongly dependent on uncertainties in emissions mass, composition, emissions aerosol size distributions, and assumed optical mixing state, while the indirect effect is dependent on the emissions mass, emissions aerosol size distribution, and the choice of model nucleation and secondary organic aerosol schemes. The sign and magnitude of these effects have a strong regional dependence. We conclude that the climate effects of biofuel aerosols are largely unconstrained, and the overall sign of the aerosol effects is unclear due to uncertainties in model inputs. This uncertainty limits our ability to introduce mitigation strategies aimed at reducing biofuel black carbon emissions in order to counter warming effects from greenhouse gases. To better understand the climate impact of particle emissions from biofuel combustion, we recommend field/laboratory measurements to narrow constraints on (1) emissions mass, (2) emission size distribution, (3) mixing state, and (4) ratio of black carbon to organic aerosol.

Land degradation and climate change: building climate resilience in agriculture

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Land degradation and climate change pose enormous risks to global food security. Land degradation increases the vulnerability of agroecological systems to climate change and reduces the effectiveness of adaptation options. Yet these interactions have largely been omitted from climate impact assessme...

Climate change adaptation: where does global health fit in the agenda?

PubMed

Bowen, Kathryn J; Friel, Sharon

2012-05-27

Human-induced climate change will affect the lives of most populations in the next decade and beyond. It will have greatest, and generally earliest, impact on the poorest and most disadvantaged populations on the planet. Changes in climatic conditions and increases in weather variability affect human wellbeing, safety, health and survival in many ways. Some impacts are direct-acting and immediate, such as impaired food yields and storm surges. Other health effects are less immediate and typically occur via more complex causal pathways that involve a range of underlying social conditions and sectors such as water and sanitation, agriculture and urban planning. Climate change adaptation is receiving much attention given the inevitability of climate change and its effects, particularly in developing contexts, where the effects of climate change will be experienced most strongly and the response mechanisms are weakest. Financial support towards adaptation activities from various actors including the World Bank, the European Union and the United Nations is increasing substantially. With this new global impetus and funding for adaptation action come challenges such as the importance of developing adaptation activities on a sound understanding of baseline community needs and vulnerabilities, and how these may alter with changes in climate. The global health community is paying heed to the strengthening focus on adaptation, albeit in a slow and unstructured manner. The aim of this paper is to provide an overview of adaptation and its relevance to global health, and highlight the opportunities to improve health and reduce health inequities via the new and additional funding that is available for climate change adaptation activities.

Biodiversity and Climate Modeling Workshop Series: Identifying gaps and needs for improving large-scale biodiversity models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weiskopf, S. R.; Myers, B.; Beard, T. D.; Jackson, S. T.; Tittensor, D.; Harfoot, M.; Senay, G. B.

2017-12-01

At the global scale, well-accepted global circulation models and agreed-upon scenarios for future climate from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are available. In contrast, biodiversity modeling at the global scale lacks analogous tools. While there is great interest in development of similar bodies and efforts for international monitoring and modelling of biodiversity at the global scale, equivalent modelling tools are in their infancy. This lack of global biodiversity models compared to the extensive array of general circulation models provides a unique opportunity to bring together climate, ecosystem, and biodiversity modeling experts to promote development of integrated approaches in modeling global biodiversity. Improved models are needed to understand how we are progressing towards the Aichi Biodiversity Targets, many of which are not on track to meet the 2020 goal, threatening global biodiversity conservation, monitoring, and sustainable use. We brought together biodiversity, climate, and remote sensing experts to try to 1) identify lessons learned from the climate community that can be used to improve global biodiversity models; 2) explore how NASA and other remote sensing products could be better integrated into global biodiversity models and 3) advance global biodiversity modeling, prediction, and forecasting to inform the Aichi Biodiversity Targets, the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals, and the Intergovernmental Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services Global Assessment of Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services. The 1st In-Person meeting focused on determining a roadmap for effective assessment of biodiversity model projections and forecasts by 2030 while integrating and assimilating remote sensing data and applying lessons learned, when appropriate, from climate modeling. Here, we present the outcomes and lessons learned from our first E-discussion and in-person meeting and discuss the next steps for future meetings.

Climate versus carbon dioxide controls on biomass burning: a model analysis of the glacial-interglacial contrast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Calvo, M. Martin; Prentice, I. C.; Harrison, S. P.

2014-11-01

Climate controls fire regimes through its influence on the amount and types of fuel present and their dryness. CO2 concentration constrains primary production by limiting photosynthetic activity in plants. However, although fuel accumulation depends on biomass production, and hence on CO2 concentration, the quantitative relationship between atmospheric CO2 concentration and biomass burning is not well understood. Here a fire-enabled dynamic global vegetation model (the Land surface Processes and eXchanges model, LPX) is used to attribute glacial-interglacial changes in biomass burning to an increase in CO2, which would be expected to increase primary production and therefore fuel loads even in the absence of climate change, vs. climate change effects. Four general circulation models provided last glacial maximum (LGM) climate anomalies - that is, differences from the pre-industrial (PI) control climate - from the Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase~2, allowing the construction of four scenarios for LGM climate. Modelled carbon fluxes from biomass burning were corrected for the model's observed prediction biases in contemporary regional average values for biomes. With LGM climate and low CO2 (185 ppm) effects included, the modelled global flux at the LGM was in the range of 1.0-1.4 Pg C year-1, about a third less than that modelled for PI time. LGM climate with pre-industrial CO2 (280 ppm) yielded unrealistic results, with global biomass burning fluxes similar to or even greater than in the pre-industrial climate. It is inferred that a substantial part of the increase in biomass burning after the LGM must be attributed to the effect of increasing CO2 concentration on primary production and fuel load. Today, by analogy, both rising CO2 and global warming must be considered as risk factors for increasing biomass burning. Both effects need to be included in models to project future fire risks.

Vegetation-induced warming of high-latitude regions during the Late Cretaceous period

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Otto-Bliesner, Bette L.; Upchurch, Garland R.

1997-02-01

Modelling studies of pre-Quaternary (>2 million years ago) climate implicate atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations1, land elevation2 and land-sea distribution3-5 as important factors influencing global climate change over geological timescales. But during times of global warmth, such as the Cretaceous period and Eocene epoch, there are large discrepancies between model simulations of high-latitude and continental-interior temperatures and those indicated by palaeotemperature records6,7. Here we use a global climate model for the latest Cretaceous (66 million years ago) to examine the role played by high- and middle-latitude forests in surface temperature regulation. In our simulations, this forest vegetation warms the global climate by 2.2 °C. The low-albedo deciduous forests cause high-latitude land areas to warm, which then transfer more heat to adjacent oceans, thus delaying sea-ice formation and increasing winter temperatures over coastal land. Overall, the inclusion of some of the physical and physiological climate feedback effects of high-latitude forest vegetation in our simulations reduces the existing discrepancies between observed and modelled climates of the latest Cretaceous, suggesting that these forests may have made an important contribution to climate regulation during periods of global warmth.

Linking population, fertility, and family planning with adaptation to climate change: perspectives from Ethiopia.

PubMed

Rovin, Kimberly; Hardee, Karen; Kidanu, Aklilu

2013-09-01

Global climate change is felt disproportionately in the world's most economically disadvantaged countries. As adaption to an evolving climate becomes increasingly salient on national and global scales, it is important to assess how people at the local-level are already coping with changes. Understanding local responses to climate change is essential for helping countries to construct strategies to bolster resilience to current and future effects. This qualitative research investigated responses to climate change in Ethiopia; specifically, how communities react to and cope with climate variation, which groups are most vulnerable, and the role of family planning in increasing resilience. Participants were highly aware of changing climate effects, impacts of rapid population growth, and the need for increased access to voluntary family planning. Identification of family planning as an important adaptation strategy supports the inclusion of rights-based voluntary family planning and reproductive health into local and national climate change adaptation plans.

Simulated Effect of Carbon Cycle Feedback on Climate Response to Solar Geoengineering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cao, Long; Jiang, Jiu

2017-12-01

Most modeling studies investigate climate effects of solar geoengineering under prescribed atmospheric CO2, thereby neglecting potential climate feedbacks from the carbon cycle. Here we use an Earth system model to investigate interactive feedbacks between solar geoengineering, global carbon cycle, and climate change. We design idealized sunshade geoengineering simulations to prevent global warming from exceeding 2°C above preindustrial under a CO2 emission scenario with emission mitigation starting from middle of century. By year 2100, solar geoengineering reduces the burden of atmospheric CO2 by 47 PgC with enhanced carbon storage in the terrestrial biosphere. As a result of reduced atmospheric CO2, consideration of the carbon cycle feedback reduces required insolation reduction in 2100 from 2.0 to 1.7 W m-2. With higher climate sensitivity the effect from carbon cycle feedback becomes more important. Our study demonstrates the importance of carbon cycle feedback in climate response to solar geoengineering.

Modern-Day Demographic Processes in Central Europe and Their Potential Interactions with Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bański, Jerzy

2013-01-01

The aim of this article is to evaluate the effect of contemporary transformations in the population of Central European countries on climate change, in addition to singling out the primary points of interaction between demographic processes and the climate. In analyzing the interactions between climate and demographics, we can formulate three basic hypotheses regarding the region in question: 1) as a result of current demographic trends in Central Europe, the influence of the region on its climate will probably diminish, 2) the importance of the "climatically displaced" in global migratory movements will increase, and some of those concerned will move to Central Europe, 3) the contribution of the region to global food security will increase. In the last decade most of what comprises the region of Central Europe has reported a decline in population growth and a negative migration balance. As a process, this loss of population may have a positive effect on the environment and the climate. We can expect ongoing climate change to intensify migration processes, particularly from countries outside Europe. Interactions between climate and demographic processes can also be viewed in the context of food security. The global warming most sources foresee for the coming decades is the process most likely to result in spatial polarization of food production in agriculture. Central Europe will then face the challenge of assuring and improving food security, albeit this time on a global scale.

Global Climate Change Interaction Web.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fortner, Rosanne W.

1998-01-01

Students investigate the effects of global climate change on life in the Great Lakes region in this activity. Teams working together construct as many links as possible for such factors as rainfall, lake water, evaporation, skiing, zebra mussels, wetlands, shipping, walleye, toxic chemicals, coastal homes, and population. (PVD)

Prognosis for a sick planet.

PubMed

Maslin, Mark

2008-12-01

Global warming is the most important science issue of the 21st century, challenging the very structure of our global society. The study of past climate has shown that the current global climate system is extremely sensitive to human-induced climate change. The burning of fossil fuels since the beginning of the industrial revolution has already caused changes with clear evidence for a 0.75 degrees C rise in global temperatures and 22 cm rise in sea level during the 20th century. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change synthesis report (2007) predicts that global temperatures by 2100 could rise by between 1.1 degrees C and 6.4 degrees C. Sea level could rise by between 28 cm and 79 cm, more if the melting of the polar ice caps accelerates. In addition, weather patterns will become less predictable and the occurrence of extreme climate events, such as storms, floods, heat waves and droughts, will increase. The potential effects of global warming on human society are devastating. We do, however, already have many of the technological solutions to cure our sick planet.

Water resources sensitivity to the isolated effects of land use, water demand and climate change under 2 degree global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bisselink, Berny; Bernhard, Jeroen; de Roo, Ad

2017-04-01

One of the key impacts of global change are the future water resources. These water resources are influenced by changes in land use (LU), water demand (WD) and climate change. Recent developments in scenario modelling opened new opportunities for an integrated assessment. However, for identifying water resource management strategies it is helpful to focus on the isolated effects of possible changes in LU, WD and climate that may occur in the near future. In this work, we quantify the isolated contribution of LU, WD and climate to the integrated total water resources assuming a linear model behavior. An ensemble of five EURO-CORDEX RCP8.5 climate projections for the 31-year periods centered on the year of exceeding the global-mean temperature of 2 degree is used to drive the fully distributed hydrological model LISFLOOD for multiple river catchments in Europe. The JRC's Land Use Modelling Platform LUISA was used to obtain a detailed pan-European reference land use scenario until 2050. Water demand is estimated based on socio-economic (GDP, population estimates etc.), land use and climate projections as well. For each climate projection, four model runs have been performed including an integrated (LU, WD and climate) simulation and other three simulations to isolate the effect of LU, WD and climate. Changes relative to the baseline in terms of water resources indicators of the ensemble means of the 2 degree warming period and their associated uncertainties will reveal the integrated and isolated effect of LU, WD and climate change on water resources.

Soil-transmitted helminthiases: implications of climate change and human behavior.

PubMed

Weaver, Haylee J; Hawdon, John M; Hoberg, Eric P

2010-12-01

Soil-transmitted helminthiases (STHs) collectively cause the highest global burden of parasitic disease after malaria and are most prevalent in the poorest communities, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. Climate change is predicted to alter the physical environment through cumulative impacts of warming and extreme fluctuations in temperature and precipitation, with cascading effects on human health and wellbeing, food security and socioeconomic infrastructure. Understanding how the spectrum of climate change effects will influence STHs is therefore of critical importance to the control of the global burden of human parasitic disease. Realistic progress in the global control of STH in a changing climate requires a multidisciplinary approach that includes the sciences (e.g. thermal thresholds for parasite development and resilience) and social sciences (e.g. behavior and implementation of education and sanitation programs). Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Determining the effect of key climate drivers on global hydropower production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Galelli, S.; Ng, J. Y.; Lee, D.; Block, P. J.

2017-12-01

Accounting for about 17% of total global electrical power production, hydropower is arguably the world's main renewable energy source and a key asset to meet Paris climate agreements. A key component of hydropower production is water availability, which depends on both precipitation and multiple drivers of climate variability acting at different spatial and temporal scales. To understand how these drivers impact global hydropower production, we study the relation between four patterns of ocean-atmosphere climate variability (i.e., El Niño Southern Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation) and monthly time series of electrical power production for over 1,500 hydropower reservoirs—obtained via simulation with a high-fidelity dam model forced with 20th century climate conditions. Notably significant relationships between electrical power productions and climate variability are found in many climate sensitive regions globally, including North and South America, East Asia, West Africa, and Europe. Coupled interactions from multiple, simultaneous climate drivers are also evaluated. Finally, we highlight the importance of using these climate drivers as an additional source of information within reservoir operating rules where the skillful predictability of inflow exists.

The Climate Science Special Report: Arctic Changes and their Effect on Alaska and the Rest of the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taylor, P. C.

2017-12-01

Rapid and visible climate change is happening across the Arctic, outpacing global change. Annual average near-surface air temperatures across the Arctic are increasing at more than twice the rate of global average surface temperature. In addition to surface temperature, all components of the Arctic climate system are responding in kind, including sea ice, mountain glaciers and the Greenland Ice sheet, snow cover, and permafrost. Many of these changes with a discernable anthropogenic imprint. While Arctic climate change may seem physically remote to those living in other regions of the planet, Arctic climate change can affect the global climate influencing sea level, the carbon cycle, and potentially atmospheric and oceanic circulation patterns. As an Arctic nation, United States' adaptation, mitigation, and policy decisions depend on projections of future Alaskan and Arctic climate. This chapter of the Climate Science Special Report documents significant scientific progress and knowledge about how the Alaskan and Arctic climate has changed and will continue to change.

Global Climate Change: Federal Research on Possible Human Health Effects

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-02-10

unrelated to climate change per se. This report does not address the underlying question of climate change itself. Rather, it identifies the array of...climate-relevant human health research and discusses the interconnections. Approximately $57 million each year since FY2005 supports climate change research...infectious diseases. Three conclusions are common to several studies on possible health effects of climate change : the infirm, the elderly, and the poor

Frequency of Deep Convective Clouds and Global Warming

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Aumann, Hartmut H.; Teixeira, Joao

2008-01-01

This slide presentation reviews the effect of global warming on the formation of Deep Convective Clouds (DCC). It concludes that nature responds to global warming with an increase in strong convective activity. The frequency of DCC increases with global warming at the rate of 6%/decade. The increased frequency of DCC with global warming alone increases precipitation by 1.7%/decade. It compares the state of the art climate models' response to global warming, and concludes that the parametrization of climate models need to be tuned to more closely emulate the way nature responds to global warming.

Detection of greenhouse-gas-induced climatic change. Progress report, 1 December 1991--30 June 1994

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wigley, T.M.L.; Jones, P.D.

1994-07-01

In addition to changes due to variations in greenhouse gas concentrations, the global climate system exhibits a high degree of internally-generated and externally-forced natural variability. To detect the enhanced greenhouse effect, its signal must be isolated from the ``noise`` of this natural climatic variability. A high quality, spatially extensive data base is required to define the noise and its spatial characteristics. To facilitate this, available land and marine data bases will be updated and expanded. The data will be analyzed to determine the potential effects on climate of greenhouse gas concentration changes and other factors. Analyses will be guided bymore » a variety of models, from simple energy balance climate models to ocean General Circulation Models. Appendices A--G contain the following seven papers: (A) Recent global warmth moderated by the effects of the Mount Pinatubo eruption; (B) Recent warming in global temperature series; (C) Correlation methods in fingerprint detection studies; (D) Balancing the carbon budget. Implications for projections of future carbon dioxide concentration changes; (E) A simple model for estimating methane concentration and lifetime variations; (F) Implications for climate and sea level of revised IPCC emissions scenarios; and (G) Sulfate aerosol and climatic change.« less

Modeling climatic effects of anthropogenic CO2 emissions: Unknowns and uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soon, W.; Baliunas, S.; Idso, S.; Kondratyev, K. Ya.; Posmentier, E. S.

2001-12-01

A likelihood of disastrous global environmental consequences has been surmised as a result of projected increases in anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. These estimates are based on computer climate modeling, a branch of science still in its infancy despite recent, substantial strides in knowledge. Because the expected anthropogenic climate forcings are relatively small compared to other background and forcing factors (internal and external), the credibility of the modeled global and regional responses rests on the validity of the models. We focus on this important question of climate model validation. Specifically, we review common deficiencies in general circulation model calculations of atmospheric temperature, surface temperature, precipitation and their spatial and temporal variability. These deficiencies arise from complex problems associated with parameterization of multiply-interacting climate components, forcings and feedbacks, involving especially clouds and oceans. We also review examples of expected climatic impacts from anthropogenic CO2 forcing. Given the host of uncertainties and unknowns in the difficult but important task of climate modeling, the unique attribution of observed current climate change to increased atmospheric CO2 concentration, including the relatively well-observed latest 20 years, is not possible. We further conclude that the incautious use of GCMs to make future climate projections from incomplete or unknown forcing scenarios is antithetical to the intrinsically heuristic value of models. Such uncritical application of climate models has led to the commonly-held but erroneous impression that modeling has proven or substantiated the hypothesis that CO2 added to the air has caused or will cause significant global warming. An assessment of the positive skills of GCMs and their use in suggesting a discernible human influence on global climate can be found in the joint World Meteorological Organisation and United Nations Environmental Programme's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC, reports (1990, 1995 and 2001). Our review highlights only the enormous scientific difficulties facing the calculation of climatic effects of added atmospheric CO2 in a GCM. The purpose of such a limited review of the deficiencies of climate model physics and the use of GCMs is to illuminate areas for improvement. Our review does not disprove a significant anthropogenic influence on global climate.

Effects of the Bering Strait closure on AMOC and global climate under different background climates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Aixue; Meehl, Gerald A.; Han, Weiqing; Otto-Bliestner, Bette; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Rosenbloom, Nan

2015-03-01

Previous studies have suggested that the status of the Bering Strait may have a significant influence on global climate variability on centennial, millennial, and even longer time scales. Here we use multiple versions of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate System Model (CCSM, versions 2 and 3) to investigate the influence of the Bering Strait closure/opening on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and global mean climate under present-day, 15 thousand-year before present (kyr BP), and 112 kyr BP climate boundary conditions. Our results show that regardless of the version of the model used or the widely different background climates, the Bering Strait's closure produces a robust result of a strengthening of the AMOC, and an increase in the northward meridional heat transport in the Atlantic. As a consequence, the climate becomes warmer in the North Atlantic and the surrounding regions, but cooler in the North Pacific, leading to a seesaw-like climate change between these two basins. For the first time it is noted that the absence of the Bering Strait throughflow causes a slower motion of Arctic sea ice, a reduced upper ocean water exchange between the Arctic and North Atlantic, reduced sea ice export and less fresh water in the North Atlantic. These changes contribute positively to the increased upper ocean density there, thus strengthening the AMOC. Potentially these changes in the North Atlantic could have a significant effect on the ice sheets both upstream and downstream in ice age climate, and further influence global sea level changes.

Effects of climate extremes on the terrestrial carbon cycle: concepts, processes and potential future impacts

PubMed Central

Frank, Dorothea; Reichstein, Markus; Bahn, Michael; Thonicke, Kirsten; Frank, David; Mahecha, Miguel D; Smith, Pete; van der Velde, Marijn; Vicca, Sara; Babst, Flurin; Beer, Christian; Buchmann, Nina; Canadell, Josep G; Ciais, Philippe; Cramer, Wolfgang; Ibrom, Andreas; Miglietta, Franco; Poulter, Ben; Rammig, Anja; Seneviratne, Sonia I; Walz, Ariane; Wattenbach, Martin; Zavala, Miguel A; Zscheischler, Jakob

2015-01-01

Extreme droughts, heat waves, frosts, precipitation, wind storms and other climate extremes may impact the structure, composition and functioning of terrestrial ecosystems, and thus carbon cycling and its feedbacks to the climate system. Yet, the interconnected avenues through which climate extremes drive ecological and physiological processes and alter the carbon balance are poorly understood. Here, we review the literature on carbon cycle relevant responses of ecosystems to extreme climatic events. Given that impacts of climate extremes are considered disturbances, we assume the respective general disturbance-induced mechanisms and processes to also operate in an extreme context. The paucity of well-defined studies currently renders a quantitative meta-analysis impossible, but permits us to develop a deductive framework for identifying the main mechanisms (and coupling thereof) through which climate extremes may act on the carbon cycle. We find that ecosystem responses can exceed the duration of the climate impacts via lagged effects on the carbon cycle. The expected regional impacts of future climate extremes will depend on changes in the probability and severity of their occurrence, on the compound effects and timing of different climate extremes, and on the vulnerability of each land-cover type modulated by management. Although processes and sensitivities differ among biomes, based on expert opinion, we expect forests to exhibit the largest net effect of extremes due to their large carbon pools and fluxes, potentially large indirect and lagged impacts, and long recovery time to regain previous stocks. At the global scale, we presume that droughts have the strongest and most widespread effects on terrestrial carbon cycling. Comparing impacts of climate extremes identified via remote sensing vs. ground-based observational case studies reveals that many regions in the (sub-)tropics are understudied. Hence, regional investigations are needed to allow a global upscaling of the impacts of climate extremes on global carbon–climate feedbacks. PMID:25752680

Global and Regional Temperature-change Potentials for Near-term Climate Forcers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Collins, W.J.; Fry, M. M.; Yu, H.; Fuglestvedt, J. S.; Shindell, D. T.; West, J. J.

2013-01-01

The emissions of reactive gases and aerosols can affect climate through the burdens of ozone, methane and aerosols, having both cooling and warming effects. These species are generally referred to near-term climate forcers (NTCFs) or short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs), because of their short atmospheric residence time. The mitigation of these would be attractive for both air quality and climate on a 30-year timescale, provided it is not at the expense of CO2 mitigation. In this study we examine the climate effects of the emissions of NTCFs from 4 continental regions (East Asia, Europe, North America and South Asia) using results from the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution Source-Receptor global chemical transport model simulations. We address 3 aerosol species (sulphate, particulate organic matter and black carbon - BC) and 4 ozone precursors (methane, reactive nitrogen oxides - NOx, volatile organic compounds VOC, and carbon monoxide - CO). For the aerosols the global warming potentials (GWPs) and global temperature change potentials (GTPs) are simply time-dependent scaling of the equilibrium radiative forcing, with the GTPs decreasing more rapidly with time than the GWPs. While the aerosol climate metrics have only a modest dependence on emission region, emissions of NOx and VOCs from South Asia have GWPs and GTPs of higher magnitude than from the other northern hemisphere regions. On regional basis, the northern mid-latitude temperature response to northern mid-latitude emissions is approximately twice as large as the global average response for aerosol emission, and about 20-30% larger than the global average for methane, VOC and CO emissions. We also found that temperatures in the Arctic latitudes appear to be particularly sensitive to black carbon emissions from South Asia.

The Arctic's Role in Climate.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Baker, D. James

1986-01-01

Discusses the special role the Arctic region plays in climate, focusing on: (1) the global energy balance; (2) feedback mechanisms; (3) effects of increasing carbon dioxide; and (4) climate processes study programs. (JN)

Economic impacts of climate change on agriculture: the AgMIP approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Delincé, Jacques; Ciaian, Pavel; Witzke, Heinz-Peter

2015-01-01

The current paper investigates the long-term global impacts on crop productivity under different climate scenarios using the AgMIP approach (Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project). The paper provides horizontal model intercomparison from 11 economic models as well as a more detailed analysis of the simulated effects from the Common Agricultural Policy Regionalized Impact (CAPRI) model to systematically compare its performance with other AgMIP models and specifically for the Chinese agriculture. CAPRI is a comparative static partial equilibrium model extensively used for medium and long-term economic and environmental policy impact applications. The results indicate that, at the global level, the climate change will cause an agricultural productivity decrease (between -2% and -15% by 2050), a food price increase (between 1.3% and 56%) and an expansion of cultivated area (between 1% and 4%) by 2050. The results for China indicate that the climate change effects tend to be smaller than the global impacts. The CAPRI-simulated effects are, in general, close to the median across all AgMIP models. Model intercomparison analyses reveal consistency in terms of direction of change to climate change but relatively strong heterogeneity in the magnitude of the effects between models.

Local food web management increases resilience and buffers against global change effects on freshwaters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Urrutia-Cordero, Pablo; Ekvall, Mattias K.; Hansson, Lars-Anders

2016-07-01

A major challenge for ecological research is to identify ways to improve resilience to climate-induced changes in order to secure the ecosystem functions of natural systems, as well as ecosystem services for human welfare. With respect to aquatic ecosystems, interactions between climate warming and the elevated runoff of humic substances (brownification) may strongly affect ecosystem functions and services. However, we hitherto lack the adaptive management tools needed to counteract such global-scale effects on freshwater ecosystems. Here we show, both experimentally and using monitoring data, that predicted climatic warming and brownification will reduce freshwater quality by exacerbating cyanobacterial growth and toxin levels. Furthermore, in a model based on long-term data from a natural system, we demonstrate that food web management has the potential to increase the resilience of freshwater systems against the growth of harmful cyanobacteria, and thereby that local efforts offer an opportunity to secure our water resources against some of the negative impacts of climate warming and brownification. This allows for novel policy action at a local scale to counteract effects of global-scale environmental change, thereby providing a buffer period and a safer operating space until climate mitigation strategies are effectively established.

Climate Change Risk Perception in Taiwan: Correlation with Individual and Societal Factors

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

This study differentiates the risk perception and influencing factors of climate change along the dimensions of global severity and personal threat. Using the 2013 Taiwan Social Change Survey (TSGS) data (N = 2001) as a representative sample of adults from Taiwan, we investigated the influencing factors of the risk perceptions of climate change in these two dimensions (global severity and personal threat). Logistic regression models were used to examine the correlations of individual factors (gender, age, education, climate-related disaster experience and risk awareness, marital status, employment status, household income, and perceived social status) and societal factors (religion, organizational embeddedness, and political affiliations) with the above two dimensions. The results demonstrate that climate-related disaster experience has no significant impact on either the perception of global severity or the perception of personal impact. However, climate-related risk awareness (regarding typhoons, in particular) is positively associated with both dimensions of the perceived risks of climate change. With higher education, individuals are more concerned about global severity than personal threat. Regarding societal factors, the supporters of political parties have higher risk perceptions of climate change than people who have no party affiliation. Religious believers have higher risk perceptions of personal threat than non-religious people. This paper ends with a discussion about the effectiveness of efforts to enhance risk perception of climate change with regard to global severity and personal threat. PMID:29316685

Climate Change Risk Perception in Taiwan: Correlation with Individual and Societal Factors.

PubMed

Sun, Yingying; Han, Ziqiang

2018-01-08

This study differentiates the risk perception and influencing factors of climate change along the dimensions of global severity and personal threat. Using the 2013 Taiwan Social Change Survey (TSGS) data (N = 2001) as a representative sample of adults from Taiwan, we investigated the influencing factors of the risk perceptions of climate change in these two dimensions (global severity and personal threat). Logistic regression models were used to examine the correlations of individual factors (gender, age, education, climate-related disaster experience and risk awareness, marital status, employment status, household income, and perceived social status) and societal factors (religion, organizational embeddedness, and political affiliations) with the above two dimensions. The results demonstrate that climate-related disaster experience has no significant impact on either the perception of global severity or the perception of personal impact. However, climate-related risk awareness (regarding typhoons, in particular) is positively associated with both dimensions of the perceived risks of climate change. With higher education, individuals are more concerned about global severity than personal threat. Regarding societal factors, the supporters of political parties have higher risk perceptions of climate change than people who have no party affiliation. Religious believers have higher risk perceptions of personal threat than non-religious people. This paper ends with a discussion about the effectiveness of efforts to enhance risk perception of climate change with regard to global severity and personal threat.

Global crop yield response to extreme heat stress under multiple climate change futures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deryng, D.; Conway, D.; Ramankutty, N.; Price, J.; Warren, R.

2014-12-01

Extreme heat stress during the crop reproductive period can be critical for crop productivity. Projected changes in the frequency and severity of extreme climatic events are expected to negatively impact crop yields and global food production. This study applies the global crop model PEGASUS to quantify, for the first time at the global scale, impacts of extreme heat stress on maize, spring wheat and soybean yields resulting from 72 climate change scenarios for the 21st century. Our results project maize to face progressively worse impacts under a range of RCPs but spring wheat and soybean to improve globally through to the 2080s due to CO2 fertilization effects, even though parts of the tropic and sub-tropic regions could face substantial yield declines. We find extreme heat stress at anthesis (HSA) by the 2080s (relative to the 1980s) under RCP 8.5, taking into account CO2 fertilization effects, could double global losses of maize yield (dY = -12.8 ± 6.7% versus -7.0 ± 5.3% without HSA), reduce projected gains in spring wheat yield by half (dY = 34.3 ± 13.5% versus 72.0 ± 10.9% without HSA) and in soybean yield by a quarter (dY = 15.3 ± 26.5% versus 20.4 ± 22.1% without HSA). The range reflects uncertainty due to differences between climate model scenarios; soybean exhibits both positive and negative impacts, maize is generally negative and spring wheat generally positive. Furthermore, when assuming CO2 fertilization effects to be negligible, we observe drastic climate mitigation policy as in RCP 2.6 could avoid more than 80% of the global average yield losses otherwise expected by the 2080s under RCP 8.5. We show large disparities in climate impacts across regions and find extreme heat stress adversely affects major producing regions and lower income countries.

Global crop yield response to extreme heat stress under multiple climate change futures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deryng, Delphine; Conway, Declan; Ramankutty, Navin; Price, Jeff; Warren, Rachel

2014-03-01

Extreme heat stress during the crop reproductive period can be critical for crop productivity. Projected changes in the frequency and severity of extreme climatic events are expected to negatively impact crop yields and global food production. This study applies the global crop model PEGASUS to quantify, for the first time at the global scale, impacts of extreme heat stress on maize, spring wheat and soybean yields resulting from 72 climate change scenarios for the 21st century. Our results project maize to face progressively worse impacts under a range of RCPs but spring wheat and soybean to improve globally through to the 2080s due to CO2 fertilization effects, even though parts of the tropic and sub-tropic regions could face substantial yield declines. We find extreme heat stress at anthesis (HSA) by the 2080s (relative to the 1980s) under RCP 8.5, taking into account CO2 fertilization effects, could double global losses of maize yield (ΔY = -12.8 ± 6.7% versus - 7.0 ± 5.3% without HSA), reduce projected gains in spring wheat yield by half (ΔY = 34.3 ± 13.5% versus 72.0 ± 10.9% without HSA) and in soybean yield by a quarter (ΔY = 15.3 ± 26.5% versus 20.4 ± 22.1% without HSA). The range reflects uncertainty due to differences between climate model scenarios; soybean exhibits both positive and negative impacts, maize is generally negative and spring wheat generally positive. Furthermore, when assuming CO2 fertilization effects to be negligible, we observe drastic climate mitigation policy as in RCP 2.6 could avoid more than 80% of the global average yield losses otherwise expected by the 2080s under RCP 8.5. We show large disparities in climate impacts across regions and find extreme heat stress adversely affects major producing regions and lower income countries.

Taking Up the Security Challenge of Climate Change

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-05-26

Climate change , in which man-made global warming is a major factor, will likely have dramatic and long-lasting consequences with profound security...effects of climate change are greatest, particularly in weak states that are already vulnerable to environmental destabilization. Two things are vitally...important: stemming the tide of climate change and adapting to its far-reaching consequences. This project examines the destabilizing effects of climate

Contrasting regional versus global radiative forcing by megacity pollution emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dang, H.; Unger, N.

2015-10-01

We assess the regional and global integrated radiative forcing on 20- and 100-year time horizons caused by a one-year pulse of present day pollution emissions from 10 megacity areas: Los Angeles, Mexico City, New York City, Sao Paulo, Lagos, Cairo, New Delhi, Beijing, Shanghai and Manila. The assessment includes well-mixed greenhouse gases: carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrous oxide (N2O), methane (CH4); and short-lived climate forcers: tropospheric ozone (O3) and fine mode aerosol particles (sulfate, nitrate, black carbon, primary and secondary organic aerosol). All megacities contribute net global warming on both time horizons. Most of the 10 megacity areas exert a net negative effect on their own regional radiation budget that is 10-100 times larger in magnitude than their global radiative effects. Of the cities examined, Beijing, New Delhi, Shanghai and New York contribute most to global warming with values ranging from +0.03 to 0.05 Wm-2yr on short timescales and +0.07-0.10 Wm-2yr on long timescales. Regional net 20-year radiative effects are largest for Mexico City (-0.84 Wm-2yr) and Beijing (-0.78 Wm-2yr). Megacity reduction of non-CH4 O3 precursors to improve air quality offers zero co-benefits to global climate. Megacity reduction of aerosols to improve air quality offers co-benefits to the regional radiative budget but minimal or no co-benefits to global climate with the exception of black carbon reductions in a few cities, especially Beijing and New Delhi. Results suggest that air pollution and global climate change mitigation can be treated as separate environmental issues in policy at the megacity level with the exception of CH4 action. Individual megacity reduction of CO2 and CH4 emissions can mitigate global warming and therefore offers climate safety improvements to the entire planet.

Global change and biodiversity loss: Some impediments to response

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Borza, Karen; Jamieson, Dale

1991-01-01

Discussed here are the effects of anthropogenic global climate change on biodiversity. The focus is on human responses to the problem. Greenhouse warming-induced climate change may shift agricultural growing belts, reduce forests of the Northern Hemisphere and drive many species to extinction, among other effects. If these changes occur together with the mass extinctions already occurring, we may suffer a profound loss of biological diversity.

Effects of global climate change on the US forest sector: response functions derived from a dynamic resource and market simulator.

Treesearch

Bruce A. McCarl; Darius M. Adams; Ralph J. Alig; Diana Burton; Chi-Chung. Chen

2000-01-01

A multiperiod, regional, mathematical programming economic model is used to evaluate the potential economic impacts of global climatic change on the US forest sector. A wide range of scenarios for the biological response of forests to climate change are developed, ranging from small to large changes in forest growth rates. These scenarios are simulated in the economic...

Characterizing and Addressing the Need for Statistical Adjustment of Global Climate Model Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

White, K. D.; Baker, B.; Mueller, C.; Villarini, G.; Foley, P.; Friedman, D.

2017-12-01

As part of its mission to research and measure the effects of the changing climate, the U. S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) regularly uses the World Climate Research Programme's Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) multi-model dataset. However, these data are generated at a global level and are not fine-tuned for specific watersheds. This often causes CMIP5 output to vary from locally observed patterns in the climate. Several downscaling methods have been developed to increase the resolution of the CMIP5 data and decrease systemic differences to support decision-makers as they evaluate results at the watershed scale. Evaluating preliminary comparisons of observed and projected flow frequency curves over the US revealed a simple framework for water resources decision makers to plan and design water resources management measures under changing conditions using standard tools. Using this framework as a basis, USACE has begun to explore to use of statistical adjustment to alter global climate model data to better match the locally observed patterns while preserving the general structure and behavior of the model data. When paired with careful measurement and hypothesis testing, statistical adjustment can be particularly effective at navigating the compromise between the locally observed patterns and the global climate model structures for decision makers.

Climate Change and Fish Availability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Teng, Paul P. S.; Lassa, Jonatan; Caballero-Anthony, Mely

Human consumption of fish has been trending upwards in the past decades and this is projected to continue. The main sources of fish are from wild fisheries (marine and freshwater) and aquaculture. Climate change is anticipated to affect the availability of fish through its effect on these two sources as well as on supply chain processes such as storage, transport, processing and retail. Climate change is known to result in warmer and more acid oceans. Ocean acidification due to higher CO2 concentration levels at sea modifies the distribution of phytoplankton and zooplankton to affect wild, capture fisheries. Higher temperature causes warm-water coral reefs to respond with species replacement and bleaching, leading to coral cover loss and habitat loss. Global changes in climatic systems may also cause fish invasion, extinction and turnover. While this may be catastrophic for small scale fish farming in poor tropical communities, there are also potential effects on animal protein supply shifts at local and global scales with food security consequences. This paper discusses the potential impacts of climate change on fisheries and aquaculture in the Asian Pacific region, with special emphasis on Southeast Asia. The key question to be addressed is “What are the impacts of global climate change on global fish harvests and what does it mean to the availability of fish?”

Climatic Effects of Regional Nuclear War

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Oman, Luke D.

2011-01-01

We use a modern climate model and new estimates of smoke generated by fires in contemporary cities to calculate the response of the climate system to a regional nuclear war between emerging third world nuclear powers using 100 Hiroshima-size bombs (less than 0.03% of the explosive yield of the current global nuclear arsenal) on cities in the subtropics. We find significant cooling and reductions of precipitation lasting years, which would impact the global food supply. The climate changes are large and longlasting because the fuel loadings in modern cities are quite high and the subtropical solar insolation heats the resulting smoke cloud and lofts it into the high stratosphere, where removal mechanisms are slow. While the climate changes are less dramatic than found in previous "nuclear winter" simulations of a massive nuclear exchange between the superpowers, because less smoke is emitted, the changes seem to be more persistent because of improvements in representing aerosol processes and microphysical/dynamical interactions, including radiative heating effects, in newer global climate system models. The assumptions and calculations that go into these conclusions will be described.

Terrestrial Feedbacks Incorporated in Global Vegetation Models through Observed Trait-Environment Responses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bodegom, P. V.

2015-12-01

Most global vegetation models used to evaluate climate change impacts rely on plant functional types to describe vegetation responses to environmental stresses. In a traditional set-up in which vegetation characteristics are considered constant within a vegetation type, the possibility to implement and infer feedback mechanisms are limited as feedback mechanisms will likely involve a changing expression of community trait values. Based on community assembly concepts, we implemented functional trait-environment relationships into a global dynamic vegetation model to quantitatively assess this feature. For the current climate, a different global vegetation distribution was calculated with and without the inclusion of trait variation, emphasizing the importance of feedbacks -in interaction with competitive processes- for the prevailing global patterns. These trait-environmental responses do, however, not necessarily imply adaptive responses of vegetation to changing conditions and may locally lead to a faster turnover in vegetation upon climate change. Indeed, when running climate projections, simulations with trait variation did not yield a more stable or resilient vegetation than those without. Through the different feedback expressions, global and regional carbon and water fluxes were -however- strongly altered. At a global scale, model projections suggest an increased productivity and hence an increased carbon sink in the next decades to come, when including trait variation. However, by the end of the century, a reduced carbon sink is projected. This effect is due to a downregulation of photosynthesis rates, particularly in the tropical regions, even when accounting for CO2-fertilization effects. Altogether, the various global model simulations suggest the critical importance of including vegetation functional responses to changing environmental conditions to grasp terrestrial feedback mechanisms at global scales in the light of climate change.

The impact of global warming on the range distribution of different climatic groups of Aspidoscelis costata costata.

PubMed

Güizado-Rodríguez, Martha Anahí; Ballesteros-Barrera, Claudia; Casas-Andreu, Gustavo; Barradas-Miranda, Victor Luis; Téllez-Valdés, Oswaldo; Salgado-Ugarte, Isaías Hazarmabeth

2012-12-01

The ectothermic nature of reptiles makes them especially sensitive to global warming. Although climate change and its implications are a frequent topic of detailed studies, most of these studies are carried out without making a distinction between populations. Here we present the first study of an Aspidoscelis species that evaluates the effects of global warming on its distribution using ecological niche modeling. The aims of our study were (1) to understand whether predicted warmer climatic conditions affect the geographic potential distribution of different climatic groups of Aspidoscelis costata costata and (2) to identify potential altitudinal changes of these groups under global warming. We used the maximum entropy species distribution model (MaxEnt) to project the potential distributions expected for the years 2020, 2050, and 2080 under a single simulated climatic scenario. Our analysis suggests that some climatic groups of Aspidoscelis costata costata will exhibit reductions and in others expansions in their distribution, with potential upward shifts toward higher elevation in response to climate warming. Different climatic groups were revealed in our analysis that subsequently showed heterogeneous responses to climatic change illustrating the complex nature of species geographic responses to environmental change and the importance of modeling climatic or geographic groups and/or populations instead of the entire species' range treated as a homogeneous entity.

Climate Controls AM Fungal Distributions from Global to Local Scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kivlin, S. N.; Hawkes, C.; Muscarella, R.; Treseder, K. K.; Kazenel, M.; Lynn, J.; Rudgers, J.

2016-12-01

Arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungi have key functions in terrestrial biogeochemical processes; thus, determining the relative importance of climate, edaphic factors, and plant community composition on their geographic distributions can improve predictions of their sensitivity to global change. Local adaptation by AM fungi to plant hosts, soil nutrients, and climate suggests that all of these factors may control fungal geographic distributions, but their relative importance is unknown. We created species distribution models for 142 AM fungal taxa at the global scale with data from GenBank. We compared climate variables (BioClim and soil moisture), edaphic variables (phosphorus, carbon, pH, and clay content), and plant variables using model selection on models with (1) all variables, (2) climatic variables only (including soil moisture) and (3) resource-related variables only (all other soil parameters and NPP) using the MaxEnt algorithm evaluated with ENMEval. We also evaluated whether drivers of AM fungal distributions were phylogenetically conserved. To test whether global correlates of AM fungal distributions were reflected at local scales, we then surveyed AM fungi in nine plant hosts along three elevation gradients in the Upper Gunnison Basin, Colorado, USA. At the global scale, the distributions of 55% of AM fungal taxa were affected by both climate and soil resources, whereas 16% were only affected by climate and 29% were only affected by soil resources. Even for AM fungi that were affected by both climate and resources, the effects of climatic variables nearly always outweighed those of resources. Soil moisture and isothermality were the main climatic and NPP and soil carbon the main resource related factors influencing AM fungal distributions. Distributions of closely related AM fungal taxa were similarly affected by climate, but not by resources. Local scale surveys of AM fungi across elevations confirmed that climate was a key driver of AM fungal composition and root colonization, with weaker influences of plant identity and soil nutrients. These two studies across scales suggest prevailing effects of climate on AM fungal distributions. Thus, incorporating climate when forecasting future ranges of AM fungi will enhance predictions of AM fungal abundance and associated ecosystem functions.

Landscape fires dominate terrestrial natural aerosol - climate feedbacks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scott, C.; Arnold, S.; Monks, S. A.; Asmi, A.; Paasonen, P.; Spracklen, D. V.

2017-12-01

The terrestrial biosphere is an important source of natural aerosol including landscape fire emissions and secondary organic aerosol (SOA) formed from biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs). Atmospheric aerosol alters the Earth's climate by absorbing and scattering radiation (direct radiative effect; DRE) and by perturbing the properties of clouds (aerosol indirect effect; AIE). Natural aerosol sources are strongly controlled by, and can influence, climate; giving rise to potential natural aerosol-climate feedbacks. Earth System Models (ESMs) include a description of some of these natural aerosol-climate feedbacks, predicting substantial changes in natural aerosol over the coming century with associated radiative perturbations. Despite this, the sensitivity of natural aerosols simulated by ESMs to changes in climate or emissions has not been robustly tested against observations. Here we combine long-term observations of aerosol number and a global aerosol microphysics model to assess terrestrial natural aerosol-climate feedbacks. We find a strong positive relationship between the summertime anomaly in observed concentration of particles greater than 100 nm diameter and the anomaly in local air temperature. This relationship is reproduced by the model and driven by variability in dynamics and meteorology, as well as natural sources of aerosol. We use an offline radiative transfer model to determine radiative effects due to changes in two natural aerosol sources: landscape fire and biogenic SOA. We find that interannual variability in the simulated global natural aerosol radiative effect (RE) is negatively related to the global temperature anomaly. The magnitude of global aerosol-climate feedback (sum of DRE and AIE) is estimated to be -0.15 Wm-2 K-1 for landscape fire aerosol and -0.06 Wm-2 K-1 for biogenic SOA. These feedbacks are comparable in magnitude, but opposite in sign to the snow albedo feedback, highlighting the need for natural aerosol feedbacks to be included in climate simulations.

Impact of Global Climate on Rift Valley Fever and other Vector-borne Disease Outbreaks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Linthicum, K. J.

2017-12-01

Rift Valley fever is a viral disease of animals and humans in Africa and the Middle East that is transmitted by mosquitoes. Since the virus was first isolated in Kenya in 1930 it has caused significant impact to animal and human health and national economies, and it is of concern to the international agricultural and public health community. In this presentation we will describe the (1) ecology of disease transmission as it relates to climate, (2) the impact of climate and other environmental conditions on outbreaks, (3) the ability to use global climate information to predict outbreaks, (4) effective response activities, and (4) the potential to mitigate globalization.

Spatial heterogeneity of climate change as an experiential basis for skepticism

PubMed Central

Kaufmann, Robert K.; Mann, Michael L.; Gopal, Sucharita; Liederman, Jackie A.; Howe, Peter D.; Pretis, Felix; Gilmore, Michelle

2017-01-01

We postulate that skepticism about climate change is partially caused by the spatial heterogeneity of climate change, which exposes experiential learners to climate heuristics that differ from the global average. This hypothesis is tested by formalizing an index that measures local changes in climate using station data and comparing this index with survey-based model estimates of county-level opinion about whether global warming is happening. Results indicate that more stations exhibit cooling and warming than predicted by random chance and that spatial variations in these changes can account for spatial variations in the percentage of the population that believes that “global warming is happening.” This effect is diminished in areas that have experienced more record low temperatures than record highs since 2005. Together, these results suggest that skepticism about climate change is driven partially by personal experiences; an accurate heuristic for local changes in climate identifies obstacles to communicating ongoing changes in climate to the public and how these communications might be improved. PMID:27994143

Spatial heterogeneity of climate change as an experiential basis for skepticism.

PubMed

Kaufmann, Robert K; Mann, Michael L; Gopal, Sucharita; Liederman, Jackie A; Howe, Peter D; Pretis, Felix; Tang, Xiaojing; Gilmore, Michelle

2017-01-03

We postulate that skepticism about climate change is partially caused by the spatial heterogeneity of climate change, which exposes experiential learners to climate heuristics that differ from the global average. This hypothesis is tested by formalizing an index that measures local changes in climate using station data and comparing this index with survey-based model estimates of county-level opinion about whether global warming is happening. Results indicate that more stations exhibit cooling and warming than predicted by random chance and that spatial variations in these changes can account for spatial variations in the percentage of the population that believes that "global warming is happening." This effect is diminished in areas that have experienced more record low temperatures than record highs since 2005. Together, these results suggest that skepticism about climate change is driven partially by personal experiences; an accurate heuristic for local changes in climate identifies obstacles to communicating ongoing changes in climate to the public and how these communications might be improved.

Global Pyrogeography: the Current and Future Distribution of Wildfire

PubMed Central

Krawchuk, Meg A.; Moritz, Max A.; Parisien, Marc-André; Van Dorn, Jeff; Hayhoe, Katharine

2009-01-01

Climate change is expected to alter the geographic distribution of wildfire, a complex abiotic process that responds to a variety of spatial and environmental gradients. How future climate change may alter global wildfire activity, however, is still largely unknown. As a first step to quantifying potential change in global wildfire, we present a multivariate quantification of environmental drivers for the observed, current distribution of vegetation fires using statistical models of the relationship between fire activity and resources to burn, climate conditions, human influence, and lightning flash rates at a coarse spatiotemporal resolution (100 km, over one decade). We then demonstrate how these statistical models can be used to project future changes in global fire patterns, highlighting regional hotspots of change in fire probabilities under future climate conditions as simulated by a global climate model. Based on current conditions, our results illustrate how the availability of resources to burn and climate conditions conducive to combustion jointly determine why some parts of the world are fire-prone and others are fire-free. In contrast to any expectation that global warming should necessarily result in more fire, we find that regional increases in fire probabilities may be counter-balanced by decreases at other locations, due to the interplay of temperature and precipitation variables. Despite this net balance, our models predict substantial invasion and retreat of fire across large portions of the globe. These changes could have important effects on terrestrial ecosystems since alteration in fire activity may occur quite rapidly, generating ever more complex environmental challenges for species dispersing and adjusting to new climate conditions. Our findings highlight the potential for widespread impacts of climate change on wildfire, suggesting severely altered fire regimes and the need for more explicit inclusion of fire in research on global vegetation-climate change dynamics and conservation planning. PMID:19352494

The potential impact of global warming on the efficacy of field margins sown for the conservation of bumble-bees.

PubMed

Memmott, Jane; Carvell, Claire; Pywell, Richard F; Craze, Paul G

2010-07-12

Climate change is expected to drive species extinct by reducing their survival, reproduction and habitat. Less well appreciated is the possibility that climate change could cause extinction by changing the ecological interactions between species. If ecologists, land managers and policy makers are to manage farmland biodiversity sustainably under global climate change, they need to understand the ways in which species interact with each other as this will affect the way they respond to climate change. Here, we consider the ability of nectar flower mixtures used in field margins to provide sufficient forage for bumble-bees under future climate change. We simulated the effect of global warming on the network of plant-pollinator interactions in two types of field margin: a four-species pollen and nectar mix and a six-species wildflower mix. While periods without flowering resources and periods with no food were rare, curtailment of the field season was very common for the bumble-bees in both mixtures. The effect of this, however, could be ameliorated by adding extra species at the start and end of the flowering season. The plant species that could be used to future-proof margins against global warming are discussed.

Testing for the Possible Influence of Unknown Climate Forcings upon Global Temperature Increases from 1950-2000

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Anderson, Bruce T.; Knight, Jeff R.; Ringer, Mark A.

2012-10-15

Global-scale variations in the climate system over the last half of the twentieth century, including long-term increases in global-mean near-surface temperatures, are consistent with concurrent human-induced emissions of radiatively active gases and aerosols. However, such consistency does not preclude the possible influence of other forcing agents, including internal modes of climate variability or unaccounted for aerosol effects. To test whether other unknown forcing agents may have contributed to multidecadal increases in global-mean near-surface temperatures from 1950 to 2000, data pertaining to observed changes in global-scale sea surface temperatures and observed changes in radiatively active atmospheric constituents are incorporated into numericalmore » global climate models. Results indicate that the radiative forcing needed to produce the observed long-term trends in sea surface temperatures—and global-mean near-surface temperatures—is provided predominantly by known changes in greenhouse gases and aerosols. Further, results indicate that less than 10% of the long-term historical increase in global-mean near-surface temperatures over the last half of the twentieth century could have been the result of internal climate variability. In addition, they indicate that less than 25%of the total radiative forcing needed to produce the observed long-term trend in global-mean near-surface temperatures could have been provided by changes in net radiative forcing from unknown sources (either positive or negative). These results, which are derived from simple energy balance requirements, emphasize the important role humans have played in modifying the global climate over the last half of the twentieth century.« less

Climate change, global warming and coral reefs: modelling the effects of temperature.

PubMed

Crabbe, M James C

2008-10-01

Climate change and global warming have severe consequences for the survival of scleractinian (reef-building) corals and their associated ecosystems. This review summarizes recent literature on the influence of temperature on coral growth, coral bleaching, and modelling the effects of high temperature on corals. Satellite-based sea surface temperature (SST) and coral bleaching information available on the internet is an important tool in monitoring and modelling coral responses to temperature. Within the narrow temperature range for coral growth, corals can respond to rate of temperature change as well as to temperature per se. We need to continue to develop models of how non-steady-state processes such as global warming and climate change will affect coral reefs.

Improving Undergraduate Climate Change Literacy through Writing: A Pilot Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Small Griswold, Jennifer D.

2017-01-01

A climate-literate population, capable of making informed decisions related to climate change, is of critical importance as society faces ever-increasing global temperatures and changes in the climate system. This project evaluates the effectiveness of a novel instructional approach that incorporates climate change science into a first-year…

Revisiting the climate impacts of cool roofs around the globe using an Earth system model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Jiachen; Zhang, Kai; Liu, Junfeng; Ban-Weiss, George

2016-08-01

Solar reflective ‘cool roofs’ absorb less sunlight than traditional dark roofs, reducing solar heat gain, and decreasing the amount of heat transferred to the atmosphere. Widespread adoption of cool roofs could therefore reduce temperatures in urban areas, partially mitigating the urban heat island effect, and contributing to reversing the local impacts of global climate change. The impacts of cool roofs on global climate remain debated by past research and are uncertain. Using a sophisticated Earth system model, the impacts of cool roofs on climate are investigated at urban, continental, and global scales. We find that global adoption of cool roofs in urban areas reduces urban heat islands everywhere, with an annual- and global-mean decrease from 1.6 to 1.2 K. Decreases are statistically significant, except for some areas in Africa and Mexico where urban fraction is low, and some high-latitude areas during wintertime. Analysis of the surface and TOA energy budget in urban regions at continental-scale shows cool roofs causing increases in solar radiation leaving the Earth-atmosphere system in most regions around the globe, though the presence of aerosols and clouds are found to partially offset increases in upward radiation. Aerosols dampen cool roof-induced increases in upward solar radiation, ranging from 4% in the United States to 18% in more polluted China. Adoption of cool roofs also causes statistically significant reductions in surface air temperatures in urbanized regions of China (-0.11 ± 0.10 K) and the United States (-0.14 ± 0.12 K); India and Europe show statistically insignificant changes. Though past research has disagreed on whether widespread adoption of cool roofs would cool or warm global climate, these studies have lacked analysis on the statistical significance of global temperature changes. The research presented here indicates that adoption of cool roofs around the globe would lead to statistically insignificant reductions in global mean air temperature (-0.0021 ± 0.026 K). Thus, we suggest that while cool roofs are an effective tool for reducing building energy use in hot climates, urban heat islands, and regional air temperatures, their influence on global climate is likely negligible.

Revisiting the Climate Impacts of Cool Roofs around the Globe Using an Earth System Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, J.; Ban-Weiss, G. A.; Zhang, K.; Liu, J.

2016-12-01

Solar reflective "cool roofs" absorb less sunlight than traditional dark roofs, reducing solar heat gain, and decreasing the amount of heat transferred to the atmosphere. Widespread adoption of cool roofs could therefore reduce temperatures in urban areas, partially mitigating the urban heat island effect, and contributing to reversing the local impacts of global climate change. The impacts of cool roofs on global climate remain debated by past research and are uncertain. Using a sophisticated Earth system model, the impacts of cool roofs on climate are investigated at urban, continental, and global scales. We find that global adoption of cool roofs in urban areas reduces urban heat islands everywhere, with an annual- and global-mean decrease from 1.6 to 1.2 K. Decreases are statistically significant, except for some areas in Africa and Mexico where urban fraction is low, and some high-latitude areas during wintertime. Analysis of the surface and TOA energy budget in urban regions at continental-scale shows cool roofs causing increases in solar radiation leaving the Earth-atmosphere system in most regions around the globe, though the presence of aerosols and clouds are found to partially offset increases in upward radiation. Aerosols dampen cool roof-induced increases in upward solar radiation, ranging from 4% in the United States to 18% in more polluted China. Adoption of cool roofs also causes statistically significant reductions in surface air temperatures in urbanized regions of China (-0.11±0.10 K) and the United States (-0.14±0.12 K); India and Europe show statistically insignificant changes. Though past research has disagreed on whether widespread adoption of cool roofs would cool or warm global climate, these studies have lacked analysis on the statistical significance of global temperature changes. The research presented here indicates that adoption of cool roofs around the globe would lead to statistically insignificant reductions in global mean air temperature (-0.0021 ± 0.026 K). Thus, we suggest that while cool roofs are an effective tool for reducing building energy use in hot climates, urban heat islands, and regional air temperatures, their influence on global climate is likely negligible.

Increasing Diversity in Global Climate Change Research for Undergraduates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnson, L. P.; Marchese, P.; Carlson, B. E.; Howard, A. M.; Peteet, D. M.; Rosenzweig, C.; Druyan, L. M.; Fulakeza, M.; Gaffin, S.; Austin, S. A.; Cheung, T. D.; Damas, M. C.; Boxe, C.; Prince, T.; Ng, C.; Frost, J.

2014-12-01

Global Climate Change and the ability to predict the effects of forcings and feedback mechanisms on global and local climate are critical to the survival of the inhabitants of planet Earth. It is therefore important to motivate students to continue their studies towards advanced degrees and pursue careers related to climate change. This is best accomplished by involving undergraduates in global climate change research. This Research Experience for Undergraduates (REU) initiative is based at the City University of New York (CUNY) and the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), and is supported by NASA and NSF. Mentors for the primarily summer research experiences include CUNY faculty and GISS scientists. Research topics include the Wetland Carbon Project, The Cooling Power Of Urban Vegetation, Internal Ocean Mixing, El Niño Southern Oscillation, Pollution Transport and Tropospheric Ozone. Students are recruited from CUNY colleges and other colleges and universities. The program maintains an emphasis on under-represented minorities and females. Approximately sixty percent of the undergraduate students are under-represented minorities and forty percent are female. The project is supported by NSF award AGS-1359293 REU Site: CUNY/GISS Center for Global Climate Research.

Evaluating the effects of ideology on public understanding of climate change science: how to improve communication across ideological divides?

PubMed

Zia, Asim; Todd, Anne Marie

2010-11-01

While ideology can have a strong effect on citizen understanding of science, it is unclear how ideology interacts with other complicating factors, such as college education, which influence citizens' comprehension of information. We focus on public understanding of climate change science and test the hypotheses: [H1] as citizens' ideology shifts from liberal to conservative, concern for global warming decreases; [H2] citizens with college education and higher general science literacy tend to have higher concern for global warming; and [H3] college education does not increase global warming concern for conservative ideologues. We implemented a survey instrument in California's San Francisco Bay Area, and employed regression models to test the effects of ideology and other socio-demographic variables on citizen concern about global warming, terrorism, the economy, health care and poverty. We are able to confirm H1 and H3, but reject H2. Various strategies are discussed to improve the communication of climate change science across ideological divides.

Regional climate change and national responsibilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hansen, James; Sato, Makiko

2016-03-01

Global warming over the past several decades is now large enough that regional climate change is emerging above the noise of natural variability, especially in the summer at middle latitudes and year-round at low latitudes. Despite the small magnitude of warming relative to weather fluctuations, effects of the warming already have notable social and economic impacts. Global warming of 2 °C relative to preindustrial would shift the ‘bell curve’ defining temperature anomalies a factor of three larger than observed changes since the middle of the 20th century, with highly deleterious consequences. There is striking incongruity between the global distribution of nations principally responsible for fossil fuel CO2 emissions, known to be the main cause of climate change, and the regions suffering the greatest consequences from the warming, a fact with substantial implications for global energy and climate policies.

Research in geosciences policy

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Byerly, Radford, Jr.; Mcvey, Sally

1991-01-01

Various topics related to cases of difficult adaptation to global change are discussed. Topics include patterns in the ratification of global environmental treaties, the effects of global climate change on Southeast Asia, and global change and biodiversity loss.

Convergence of terrestrial plant production across global climate gradients.

PubMed

Michaletz, Sean T; Cheng, Dongliang; Kerkhoff, Andrew J; Enquist, Brian J

2014-08-07

Variation in terrestrial net primary production (NPP) with climate is thought to originate from a direct influence of temperature and precipitation on plant metabolism. However, variation in NPP may also result from an indirect influence of climate by means of plant age, stand biomass, growing season length and local adaptation. To identify the relative importance of direct and indirect climate effects, we extend metabolic scaling theory to link hypothesized climate influences with NPP, and assess hypothesized relationships using a global compilation of ecosystem woody plant biomass and production data. Notably, age and biomass explained most of the variation in production whereas temperature and precipitation explained almost none, suggesting that climate indirectly (not directly) influences production. Furthermore, our theory shows that variation in NPP is characterized by a common scaling relationship, suggesting that global change models can incorporate the mechanisms governing this relationship to improve predictions of future ecosystem function.

The effects of climate sensitivity and carbon cycle interactions on mitigation policy stringency

EPA Science Inventory

Climate sensitivity and climate-carbon cycle feedbacks interact to determine how global carbon and energy cycles will change in the future. While the science of these connections is well documented, their economic implications are not well understood. Here we examine the effect o...

Energy-based and process-based constraints on aerosol-climate interaction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suzuki, K.; Sato, Y.; Takemura, T.; Michibata, T.; Goto, D.; Oikawa, E.

2017-12-01

Recent advance in both satellite observations and global modeling provides us with a novel opportunity to investigate the long-standing aerosol-climate interaction issue at a fundamental process level, particularly with a combined use of them. In this presentation, we will highlight our recent progress in understanding the aerosol-cloud-precipitation interaction and its implication for global climate with a synergistic use of a state-of-the-art global climate model (MIROC), a global cloud-resolving model (NICAM) and recent satellite observations (A-Train). In particular, we explore two different aspects of the aerosol-climate interaction issue, i.e. (i) the global energy balance perspective with its modulation due to aerosols and (ii) the process-level characteristics of the aerosol-induced perturbations to cloud and precipitation. For the former, climate model simulations are used to quantify how components of global energy budget are modulated by the aerosol forcing. The moist processes are shown to be a critical pathway that links the forcing efficacy and the hydrologic sensitivity arising from aerosol perturbations. Effects of scattering (e.g. sulfate) and absorbing (e.g. black carbon) aerosols are compared in this context to highlight their distinctively different impacts on climate and hydrologic cycle. The aerosol-induced modulation of moist processes is also investigated in the context of the second aspect above to facilitate recent arguments on possible overestimates of the aerosol-cloud interaction in climate models. Our recent simulations with NICAM are shown to highlight how diverse responses of cloud to aerosol perturbation, which have been failed to represent in traditional climate models, are reproduced by the high-resolution global model with sophisticated cloud microphysics. We will discuss implications of these findings for a linkage between the two aspects above to aid advance process-based understandings of the aerosol-climate interaction and also to mitigate a "dichotomy" recently found by the authors between the two aspects in the context of the climate projection.

Implications of Climate Mitigation for Future Agricultural Production

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mueller, Christoph; Elliott, Joshua; Chryssanthacopoulos, James; Deryng, Delphine; Folberth, Christian; Pugh, Thomas A. M.; Schmid, Erwin

2015-01-01

Climate change is projected to negatively impact biophysical agricultural productivity in much of the world. Actions taken to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and mitigate future climate changes, are thus of central importance for agricultural production. Climate impacts are, however, not unidirectional; some crops in some regions (primarily higher latitudes) are projected to benefit, particularly if increased atmospheric carbon dioxide is assumed to strongly increase crop productivity at large spatial and temporal scales. Climate mitigation measures that are implemented by reducing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations lead to reductions both in the strength of climate change and in the benefits of carbon dioxide fertilization. Consequently, analysis of the effects of climate mitigation on agricultural productivity must address not only regions for which mitigation is likely to reduce or even reverse climate damages. There are also regions that are likely to see increased crop yields due to climate change, which may lose these added potentials under mitigation action. Comparing data from the most comprehensive archive of crop yield projections publicly available, we find that climate mitigation leads to overall benefits from avoided damages at the global scale and especially in many regions that are already at risk of food insecurity today. Ignoring controversial carbon dioxide fertilization effects on crop productivity, we find that for the median projection aggressive mitigation could eliminate approximately 81% of the negative impacts of climate change on biophysical agricultural productivity globally by the end of the century. In this case, the benefits of mitigation typically extend well into temperate regions, but vary by crop and underlying climate model projections. Should large benefits to crop yields from carbon dioxide fertilization be realized, the effects of mitigation become much more mixed, though still positive globally and beneficial in many food insecure countries.

Aerosol effects on cloud water amounts were successfully simulated by a global cloud-system resolving model.

PubMed

Sato, Yousuke; Goto, Daisuke; Michibata, Takuro; Suzuki, Kentaroh; Takemura, Toshihiko; Tomita, Hirofumi; Nakajima, Teruyuki

2018-03-07

Aerosols affect climate by modifying cloud properties through their role as cloud condensation nuclei or ice nuclei, called aerosol-cloud interactions. In most global climate models (GCMs), the aerosol-cloud interactions are represented by empirical parameterisations, in which the mass of cloud liquid water (LWP) is assumed to increase monotonically with increasing aerosol loading. Recent satellite observations, however, have yielded contradictory results: LWP can decrease with increasing aerosol loading. This difference implies that GCMs overestimate the aerosol effect, but the reasons for the difference are not obvious. Here, we reproduce satellite-observed LWP responses using a global simulation with explicit representations of cloud microphysics, instead of the parameterisations. Our analyses reveal that the decrease in LWP originates from the response of evaporation and condensation processes to aerosol perturbations, which are not represented in GCMs. The explicit representation of cloud microphysics in global scale modelling reduces the uncertainty of climate prediction.

If You Change Yourself, the World Changes: The Effect of Exhibition on Preservice Science Teachers' Views about Global Climate Change

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Aksüt, Pelin; Dogan, Nihal; Bahar, Mehmet

2016-01-01

Although learning can occur in many environments e.g. science museum or zoo, some studies reported that teachers are prone to avoid outdoor activities since they lack of field trip training. For that reason; this study aims to explore the effect of the exhibition on preservice science teachers' views about global climate change (GCC) as well as…

Linking Student Achievement and Teacher Science Content Knowledge about Climate Change: Ensuring the Nations 3 Million Teachers Understand the Science through an Electronic Professional Development System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Niepold, F.; Byers, A.

2009-12-01

The scientific complexities of global climate change, with wide-ranging economic and social significance, create an intellectual challenge that mandates greater public understanding of climate change research and the concurrent ability to make informed decisions. The critical need for an engaged, science literate public has been repeatedly emphasized by multi-disciplinary entities like the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the National Academies (Rising Above the Gathering Storm report), and the interagency group responsible for the recently updated Climate Literacy: The Essential Principles of Climate Science. There is a clear need for an American public that is climate literate and for K-12 teachers confident in teaching relevant science content. A key goal in the creation of a climate literate society is to enhance teachers’ knowledge of global climate change through a national, scalable, and sustainable professional development system, using compelling climate science data and resources to stimulate inquiry-based student interest in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM). This session will explore innovative e-learning technologies to address the limitations of one-time, face-to-face workshops, thereby adding significant sustainability and scalability. The resources developed will help teachers sift through the vast volume of global climate change information and provide research-based, high-quality science content and pedagogical information to help teachers effectively teach their students about the complex issues surrounding global climate change. The Learning Center is NSTA's e-professional development portal to help the nations teachers and informal educators learn about the scientific complexities of global climate change through research-based techniques and is proven to significantly improve teacher science content knowledge.

[Effects of climate change on forest soil organic carbon storage: a review].

PubMed

Zhou, Xiao-yu; Zhang, Cheng-yi; Guo, Guang-fen

2010-07-01

Forest soil organic carbon is an important component of global carbon cycle, and the changes of its accumulation and decomposition directly affect terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage and global carbon balance. Climate change would affect the photosynthesis of forest vegetation and the decomposition and transformation of forest soil organic carbon, and further, affect the storage and dynamics of organic carbon in forest soils. Temperature, precipitation, atmospheric CO2 concentration, and other climatic factors all have important influences on the forest soil organic carbon storage. Understanding the effects of climate change on this storage is helpful to the scientific management of forest carbon sink, and to the feasible options for climate change mitigation. This paper summarized the research progress about the distribution of organic carbon storage in forest soils, and the effects of elevated temperature, precipitation change, and elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration on this storage, with the further research subjects discussed.

Investigating the Human Dimension of Unprecedented Global Climate Change in northeastern Siberia, Russia: Understandings, Perceptions and Responses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crate, S.

2009-12-01

An urgent challenge of the 21st century is to investigate understandings, perceptions and responses of populations confronting the local effects of global climate change. This paper describes the most recent results of one such project working with rural native Viliui Sakha communities, Turkic-speaking horse & cattle breeders in northeastern Siberia, Russia. The research questions are: 1) What local effects of global climate change are Viliui Sakha communities observing, how are Viliui Sakha perceiving these changes and how are the changes affecting both their subsistence survival and their cultural orientations? 2) What local knowledge exists about past climate perturbations and how does that knowledge influence contemporary adaptation to global climate change? 3) How can anecdotal (local) knowledge and regional scientific knowledge about the local effects of global climate change be integrated to enhance both local adaptive responses and policy efforts? The four-village, three-year study is a collaborative effort involving the active participation of the targeted communities, field assistants, native specialists, an in-country research team and an international collaborator. The project is founded on the PI’s 20 years of ongoing research and work with rural Viliui Sakha communities and on her fluency in both the Sakha and Russian languages. A central focus of this project is the integration of local and scientific knowledges. We are documenting local knowledge on the community, elder and archival levels. We are collaborating with scientists in Yakutsk for regional scientific data. Our project team has just returned from the second summer of field work and this presentation will cover the project results to date. Hayfields are inundated with water.

Energy prices will play an important role in determining global land use in the twenty first century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steinbuks, Jevgenijs; Hertel, Thomas W.

2013-03-01

Global land use research to date has focused on quantifying uncertainty effects of three major drivers affecting competition for land: the uncertainty in energy and climate policies affecting competition between food and biofuels, the uncertainty of climate impacts on agriculture and forestry, and the uncertainty in the underlying technological progress driving efficiency of food, bioenergy and timber production. The market uncertainty in fossil fuel prices has received relatively less attention in the global land use literature. Petroleum and natural gas prices affect both the competitiveness of biofuels and the cost of nitrogen fertilizers. High prices put significant pressure on global land supply and greenhouse gas emissions from terrestrial systems, while low prices can moderate demands for cropland. The goal of this letter is to assess and compare the effects of these core uncertainties on the optimal profile for global land use and land-based GHG emissions over the coming century. The model that we develop integrates distinct strands of agronomic, biophysical and economic literature into a single, intertemporally consistent, analytical framework, at global scale. Our analysis accounts for the value of land-based services in the production of food, first- and second-generation biofuels, timber, forest carbon and biodiversity. We find that long-term uncertainty in energy prices dominates the climate impacts and climate policy uncertainties emphasized in prior research on global land use.

Using Interactive Technology to Support Students' Understanding of the Greenhouse Effect and Global Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Varma, Keisha; Linn, Marcia C.

2012-08-01

In this work, we examine middle school students' understanding of the greenhouse effect and global warming. We designed and refined a technology-enhanced curriculum module called Global Warming: Virtual Earth. In the module activities, students conduct virtual experiments with a visualization of the greenhouse effect. They analyze data and draw conclusions about how individual variables effect changes in the Earth's temperature. They also carry out inquiry activities to make connections between scientific processes, the socio-scientific issues, and ideas presented in the media. Results show that participating in the unit increases students' understanding of the science. We discuss how students integrate their ideas about global climate change as a result of using virtual experiments that allow them to explore meaningful complexities of the climate system.

Linking regional stakeholder scenarios and shared socioeconomic pathways: Quantified West African food and climate futures in a global context.

PubMed

Palazzo, Amanda; Vervoort, Joost M; Mason-D'Croz, Daniel; Rutting, Lucas; Havlík, Petr; Islam, Shahnila; Bayala, Jules; Valin, Hugo; Kadi Kadi, Hamé Abdou; Thornton, Philip; Zougmore, Robert

2017-07-01

The climate change research community's shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) are a set of alternative global development scenarios focused on mitigation of and adaptation to climate change. To use these scenarios as a global context that is relevant for policy guidance at regional and national levels, they have to be connected to an exploration of drivers and challenges informed by regional expertise. In this paper, we present scenarios for West Africa developed by regional stakeholders and quantified using two global economic models, GLOBIOM and IMPACT, in interaction with stakeholder-generated narratives and scenario trends and SSP assumptions. We present this process as an example of linking comparable scenarios across levels to increase coherence with global contexts, while presenting insights about the future of agriculture and food security under a range of future drivers including climate change. In these scenarios, strong economic development increases food security and agricultural development. The latter increases crop and livestock productivity leading to an expansion of agricultural area within the region while reducing the land expansion burden elsewhere. In the context of a global economy, West Africa remains a large consumer and producer of a selection of commodities. However, the growth in population coupled with rising incomes leads to increases in the region's imports. For West Africa, climate change is projected to have negative effects on both crop yields and grassland productivity, and a lack of investment may exacerbate these effects. Linking multi-stakeholder regional scenarios to the global SSPs ensures scenarios that are regionally appropriate and useful for policy development as evidenced in the case study, while allowing for a critical link to global contexts.

Potential effects of climate change on Oregon crops

EPA Science Inventory

This talk will discuss: 1) potential changes in the Pacific Northwest climate with global climate change, 2) how climate change can affect crops, 3) the diversity of Oregon agriculture, 4) examples of potential response of Oregon crops – especially dryland winter wheat, and 5) br...

The Roles of Dispersal, Fecundity, and Predation in the Population Persistence of an Oak (Quercus engelmannii) under Global Change

PubMed Central

Conlisk, Erin; Lawson, Dawn; Syphard, Alexandra D.; Franklin, Janet; Flint, Lorraine; Flint, Alan; Regan, Helen M.

2012-01-01

A species’ response to climate change depends on the interaction of biotic and abiotic factors that define future habitat suitability and species’ ability to migrate or adapt. The interactive effects of processes such as fire, dispersal, and predation have not been thoroughly addressed in the climate change literature. Our objective was to examine how life history traits, short-term global change perturbations, and long-term climate change interact to affect the likely persistence of an oak species - Quercus engelmannii (Engelmann oak). Specifically, we combined dynamic species distribution models, which predict suitable habitat, with stochastic, stage-based metapopulation models, which project population trajectories, to evaluate the effects of three global change factors – climate change, land use change, and altered fire frequency – emphasizing the roles of dispersal and seed predation. Our model predicted dramatic reduction in Q. engelmannii abundance, especially under drier climates and increased fire frequency. When masting lowers seed predation rates, decreased masting frequency leads to large abundance decreases. Current rates of dispersal are not likely to prevent these effects, although increased dispersal could mitigate population declines. The results suggest that habitat suitability predictions by themselves may under-estimate the impact of climate change for other species and locations. PMID:22623955

Knowledge of Global Climate Change: View of Iranian University Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Salehi, Sadegh; Nejad, Zahra Pazuki; Mahmoudi, Hossein; Burkart, Stefan

2016-01-01

This article assesses students' understanding of global climate change (GCC) and social factors affecting it. It was hypothesized that students who demonstrate pro-environmental attitudes are more likely to possess higher knowledge of GCC. It was further hypothesized that trust and personal efficiency would have a positive effect on the knowledge…

Global Warning: Project-Based Science Inspired by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Colaianne, Blake

2015-01-01

Misconceptions about climate change are common, which suggests a need to effectively address the subject in the classroom. This article describes a project-based science activity in which students report on the physical basis, adaptations, and mitigation of this global problem, adapting the framework of the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel…

MODELING THE IMPACT OF AIR POLLUTION ON GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE

EPA Science Inventory

Tropospheric ozone (O₃) and aerosols have major effects on climate and are the two air pollutants of most concern in the developed world. O₃ is a major greenhouse gas (GHG) and light-absorbing aerosols such as black carbon (BC) also contribute to global warm...

Receptive Audiences for Climate Change Education: Understanding Attitudes and Barriers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kelly, L. D.; Luebke, J. F.; Clayton, S.; Saunders, C. D.; Matiasek, J.; Grajal, A.

2012-12-01

Much effort has been devoted to finding ways to explain climate change to uninterested audiences and encourage mitigation behaviors among dismissive audiences. Most approaches have focused on conveying information about climate change processes or threats. Here we report the results of a national survey designed to characterize the readiness of zoo and aquarium visitors to engage with the issue of climate change. Two survey forms, one focused primarily on attitudes (N=3,594) and another on behaviors (N=3,588), were administered concurrently in summer 2011 at 15 Association of Zoos and Aquariums accredited institutions. The attitudes survey used Global Warming's Six Americas segmentation protocols (climatechangecommunication.org) to compare climate change attitudes of zoo and aquarium visitors with the American public (Leiserowitz et al., 2011). Our results reveal that visitors are receptive audiences for climate change education and want to do more to address climate change. Even these favorable audiences, however, perceive barriers to engaging in the issue, signifying the importance of meeting the learning needs of those who acknowledge anthropogenic climate change, and not only of climate change 'deniers.' While 39% of the general public is 'concerned' or 'alarmed' about global warming, 64% of zoo and aquarium visitors fall into these two "Six Americas" segments. Visitors also differ from the national sample in key attitudinal characteristics related to global warming. For example, nearly two-thirds believe human actions are related to global warming, versus less than one-half of the general public; and approximately 60% think global warming will harm them personally, moderately or a great deal, versus less than 30% of the general public. Moreover, 69% of visitors would like to do more to address climate change. Despite zoo and aquarium visitors' awareness of climate change and motivation to address it, survey results indicate they experience barriers to engagement including (1) pessimism—50% of visitors are uncertain whether people will do what is needed to address global warming, and 30% think it is unlikely; (2) low self-efficacy—almost one-half of visitors believe they can personally have little to no impact on addressing climate change; and (3) perceived obstacles—when asked what is standing in their way of doing more to address climate change, over 90% of visitors reported at least one obstacle. The most frequently selected obstacles were lack of knowledge about which actions would be effective and concern about the cost of actions. Nevertheless, zoo visitors are slightly more optimistic about humans' capability to reduce global warming than the general public. Importantly, results also indicate that visitors' concern about climate change and participation in behaviors to address it vary with their sense of connection with animals and nature. Thus, this study offers guidance for the development of educational resources that meet visitors' needs while building on their emotional connections with animals. Our data suggest these resources will be more effective if they support social interactions that reinforce a person's inclination to address climate change, demonstrate the collective impact of individual actions, and aid informed decision-making about effective actions to address climate change.

Cosmic-Ray Reaction and Greenhouse Effect of Halogenated Molecules: Culprits for Atmospheric Ozone Depletion and Global Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, Q.-B.

2013-07-01

This study is focused on the effects of cosmic rays (solar activity) and halogen-containing molecules (mainly chlorofluorocarbons — CFCs) on atmospheric ozone depletion and global climate change. Brief reviews are first given on the cosmic-ray-driven electron-induced-reaction (CRE) theory for O3 depletion and the warming theory of halogenated molecules for climate change. Then natural and anthropogenic contributions to these phenomena are examined in detail and separated well through in-depth statistical analyses of comprehensive measured datasets of quantities, including cosmic rays (CRs), total solar irradiance, sunspot number, halogenated gases (CFCs, CCl4 and HCFCs), CO2, total O3, lower stratospheric temperatures and global surface temperatures. For O3 depletion, it is shown that an analytical equation derived from the CRE theory reproduces well 11-year cyclic variations of both polar O3 loss and stratospheric cooling, and new statistical analyses of the CRE equation with observed data of total O3 and stratospheric temperature give high linear correlation coefficients ≥ 0.92. After the removal of the CR effect, a pronounced recovery by 20 25 % of the Antarctic O3 hole is found, while no recovery of O3 loss in mid-latitudes has been observed. These results show both the correctness and dominance of the CRE mechanism and the success of the Montreal Protocol. For global climate change, in-depth analyses of the observed data clearly show that the solar effect and human-made halogenated gases played the dominant role in Earth's climate change prior to and after 1970, respectively. Remarkably, a statistical analysis gives a nearly zero correlation coefficient (R = -0.05) between corrected global surface temperature data by removing the solar effect and CO2 concentration during 1850-1970. In striking contrast, a nearly perfect linear correlation with coefficients as high as 0.96-0.97 is found between corrected or uncorrected global surface temperature and total amount of stratospheric halogenated gases during 1970-2012. Furthermore, a new theoretical calculation on the greenhouse effect of halogenated gases shows that they (mainly CFCs) could alone result in the global surface temperature rise of 0.6°C in 1970-2002. These results provide solid evidence that recent global warming was indeed caused by the greenhouse effect of anthropogenic halogenated gases. Thus, a slow reversal of global temperature to the 1950 value is predicted for coming 5 7 decades. It is also expected that the global sea level will continue to rise in coming 1 2 decades until the effect of the global temperature recovery dominates over that of the polar O3 hole recovery; after that, both will drop concurrently. All the observed, analytical and theoretical results presented lead to a convincing conclusion that both the CRE mechanism and the CFC-warming mechanism not only provide new fundamental understandings of the O3 hole and global climate change but have superior predictive capabilities, compared with the conventional models.

Future global mortality from changes in air pollution attributable to climate change

DOE PAGES

Silva, Raquel A.; West, J. Jason; Lamarque, Jean-François; ...

2017-07-31

Ground-level ozone and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) are associated with premature human mortality(1-4); their future concentrations depend on changes in emissions, which dominate the near-term(5), and on climate change(6,7). Previous global studies of the air-quality-related health effects of future climate change(8,9) used single atmospheric models. But, in related studies, mortality results differ among models(10-12). Here we use an ensemble of global chemistry-climate models(13) to show that premature mortality from changes in air pollution attributable to climate change, under the high greenhouse gas scenario RCP8.5 (ref. 14), is probably positive. We estimate 3,340 (-30,300 to 47,100) ozone-related deaths in 2030, relativemore » to 2000 climate, and 43,600 (-195,000 to 237,000) in 2100 (14% of the increase in global ozone-related mortality). For PM2.5, we estimate 55,600 (-34,300 to 164,000) deaths in 2030 and 215,000 (-76,100 to 595,000) in 2100 (countering by 16% the global decrease in PM2.5-related mortality). Premature mortality attributable to climate change is estimated to be positive in all regions except Africa, and is greatest in India and East Asia. Finally, most individual models yield increased mortality from climate change, but some yield decreases, suggesting caution in interpreting results from a single model. Climate change mitigation is likely to reduce air-pollution-related mortality.« less

Future Global Mortality from Changes in Air Pollution Attributable to Climate Change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Silva, Raquel A.; West, J. Jason; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Shindell, Drew T.; Collins, William J.; Faluvegi, Greg; Folberth, Gerd A.; Horowitz, Larry W.; Nagashima, Tatsuya; Naik, Vaishali;

Future global mortality from changes in air pollution attributable to climate change

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Silva, Raquel A.; West, J. Jason; Lamarque, Jean-François

Ground-level ozone and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) are associated with premature human mortality(1-4); their future concentrations depend on changes in emissions, which dominate the near-term(5), and on climate change(6,7). Previous global studies of the air-quality-related health effects of future climate change(8,9) used single atmospheric models. But, in related studies, mortality results differ among models(10-12). Here we use an ensemble of global chemistry-climate models(13) to show that premature mortality from changes in air pollution attributable to climate change, under the high greenhouse gas scenario RCP8.5 (ref. 14), is probably positive. We estimate 3,340 (-30,300 to 47,100) ozone-related deaths in 2030, relativemore » to 2000 climate, and 43,600 (-195,000 to 237,000) in 2100 (14% of the increase in global ozone-related mortality). For PM2.5, we estimate 55,600 (-34,300 to 164,000) deaths in 2030 and 215,000 (-76,100 to 595,000) in 2100 (countering by 16% the global decrease in PM2.5-related mortality). Premature mortality attributable to climate change is estimated to be positive in all regions except Africa, and is greatest in India and East Asia. Finally, most individual models yield increased mortality from climate change, but some yield decreases, suggesting caution in interpreting results from a single model. Climate change mitigation is likely to reduce air-pollution-related mortality.« less

Effects of ENSO-induced extremes on terrestrial ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, M.; Hoffman, F. M.

2017-12-01

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) with its warm (El Niño) and cold phase (La Niña) has well-known global impacts on the Earth system through the mechanism of teleconnections. Not only the global mean temperature and precipitation distributions will be changed but also the climate extremes will be enhanced during ENSO events. In this study, the advanced Earth System Model ACME version 0.3 was used to simulate terrestrial biogeochemistry and global climate from 1982 to 2020 with prescribed Sea Surface Temperature (SST) from data fusions of the NOAA high resolution daily Optimum Interpolation SST (OISST), CFS v2 9-month seasonal forecast and data reconstructions. We investigated how ENSO-induced climate extremes affect land carbon dynamics both regionally and globally and the implications for the functioning of different vegetated ecosystems under the influence of climate extremes. The results show that the ENSO-induced climate extremes, especially drought and heat waves, have significant impacts on the terrestrial carbon cycle. The responses to ENSO-induced climate extremes are divergent among different vegetation types.

Regional-Scale Forcing and Feedbacks from Alternative Scenarios of Global-Scale Land Use Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, A. D.; Chini, L. P.; Collins, W.; Janetos, A. C.; Mao, J.; Shi, X.; Thomson, A. M.; Torn, M. S.

2011-12-01

Future patterns of land use change depend critically on the degree to which terrestrial carbon management strategies, such as biological carbon sequestration and biofuels, are utilized in order to mitigate global climate change. Furthermore, land use change associated with terrestrial carbon management induces biogeophysical changes to surface energy budgets that perturb climate at regional and possibly global scales, activating different feedback processes depending on the nature and location of the land use change. As a first step in a broader effort to create an integrated earth system model, we examine two scenarios of future anthropogenic activity generated by the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) within the full-coupled Community Earth System Model (CESM). Each scenario stabilizes radiative forcing from greenhouse gases and aerosols at 4.5 W/m^2. In the first, stabilization is achieved through a universal carbon tax that values terrestrial carbon equally with fossil carbon, leading to modest afforestation globally and low biofuel utilization. In the second scenario, stabilization is achieved with a tax on fossil fuel and industrial carbon alone. In this case, biofuel utilization increases dramatically and crop area expands to claim approximately 50% of forest cover globally. By design, these scenarios exhibit identical climate forcing from atmospheric constituents. Thus, differences among them can be attributed to the biogeophysical effects of land use change. In addition, we utilize offline radiative transfer and offline land model simulations to identify forcing and feedback mechanisms operating in different regions. We find that boreal deforestation has a strong climatic signature due to significant albedo change coupled with a regional-scale water vapor feedback. Tropical deforestation, on the other hand, has more subtle effects on climate. Globally, the two scenarios yield warming trends over the 21st century that differ by 0.5 degrees Celsius. This work demonstrates the importance of land use in shaping future patterns of climate change, both globally and regionally.

A global experiment suggests climate warming will not accelerate litter decomposition in streams but might reduce carbon sequestration.

PubMed

Boyero, Luz; Pearson, Richard G; Gessner, Mark O; Barmuta, Leon A; Ferreira, Verónica; Graça, Manuel A S; Dudgeon, David; Boulton, Andrew J; Callisto, Marcos; Chauvet, Eric; Helson, Julie E; Bruder, Andreas; Albariño, Ricardo J; Yule, Catherine M; Arunachalam, Muthukumarasamy; Davies, Judy N; Figueroa, Ricardo; Flecker, Alexander S; Ramírez, Alonso; Death, Russell G; Iwata, Tomoya; Mathooko, Jude M; Mathuriau, Catherine; Gonçalves, José F; Moretti, Marcelo S; Jinggut, Tajang; Lamothe, Sylvain; M'Erimba, Charles; Ratnarajah, Lavenia; Schindler, Markus H; Castela, José; Buria, Leonardo M; Cornejo, Aydeé; Villanueva, Verónica D; West, Derek C

2011-03-01

The decomposition of plant litter is one of the most important ecosystem processes in the biosphere and is particularly sensitive to climate warming. Aquatic ecosystems are well suited to studying warming effects on decomposition because the otherwise confounding influence of moisture is constant. By using a latitudinal temperature gradient in an unprecedented global experiment in streams, we found that climate warming will likely hasten microbial litter decomposition and produce an equivalent decline in detritivore-mediated decomposition rates. As a result, overall decomposition rates should remain unchanged. Nevertheless, the process would be profoundly altered, because the shift in importance from detritivores to microbes in warm climates would likely increase CO(2) production and decrease the generation and sequestration of recalcitrant organic particles. In view of recent estimates showing that inland waters are a significant component of the global carbon cycle, this implies consequences for global biogeochemistry and a possible positive climate feedback. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.

Effects of aerosol emission pathways on future warming and human health

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Partanen, Antti-Ilari; Matthews, Damon

2016-04-01

The peak global temperature is largely determined by cumulative emissions of long-lived greenhouse gases. However, anthropogenic emissions include also so-called short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs), which include aerosol particles and methane. Previous studies with simple models indicate that the timing of SLCF emission reductions has only a small effect on the rate of global warming and even less of an effect on global peak temperatures. However, these simple model analyses do not capture the spatial dynamics of aerosol-climate interactions, nor do they consider the additional effects of aerosol emissions on human health. There is therefore merit in assessing how the timing of aerosol emission reductions affects global temperature and premature mortality caused by elevated aerosol concentrations, using more comprehensive climate models. Here, we used an aerosol-climate model ECHAM-HAMMOZ to simulate the direct and indirect radiative forcing resulting from aerosol emissions. We simulated Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios, and we also designed idealized low and high aerosol emission pathways based on RCP4.5 scenario (LOW and HIGH, respectively). From these simulations, we calculated the Effective Radiative Forcing (ERF) from aerosol emissions between 1850 and 2100, as well as aerosol concentrations used to estimate the premature mortality caused by particulate pollution. We then use the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model to simulate the spatial and temporal pattern of climate response to these aerosol-forcing scenarios, in combination with prescribed emissions of both short and long-lived greenhouse gases according to the RCP4.5 scenario. In the RCP scenarios, global mean ERF declined during the 21st century from -1.3 W m-2 to -0.4 W m-2 (RCP8.5) and -0.2 W m-2 (RCP2.6). In the sensitivity scenarios, the forcing at the end of the 21st century was -1.6 W m-2 (HIGH) and practically zero (LOW). The difference in global mean temperature at the year 2100 between LOW and HIGH was about 0.4 °C. The effect was even more significant on the global mean warming rate that reached 0.4 °C per decade in LOW and only 0.2 °C per decade in HIGH. The global temperature and warming rate were similar to each other in simulations using the aerosol emissions from standard RCP scenarios. Anthropogenic aerosols caused significant premature mortality during the 21st century. In 2005, they caused 1.5 million deaths annually. The annual death rate dropped to 0.13 million per year in LOW and was 0.9 million per year in HIGH by 2100. Total premature mortality caused by anthropogenic aerosol particles between 2005 and 2100 was 27 million in LOW, 52-68 million in RCPs, and 113 million in HIGH. Our results show that both climate and health effects of aerosols are fairly similar across RCP scenarios. However, RCPs share assumptions on effective air-quality policies. Our scenarios LOW and HIGH demonstrate that if strong aerosol policies are not enforced or even more ambitious cuts in aerosol emissions are made, the aerosol impacts on climate and health can differ significantly between scenarios.

Influences of Regional Climate Change on Air Quality across the Continental U.S. Projected from Downscaling IPCC ARS Simulations

EPA Science Inventory

Projecting climate change scenarios to local scales is important for understanding, mitigating, and adapting to the effects of climate change on society and the environment. Many of the global climate models (GCMs) that are participating in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate ...

Impacts of climate change and variability on transportation systems and infrastructure : Gulf Coast study, phase 2 : task 2 : climate variability and change in Mobile, Alabama.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2012-09-01

Despite increasing confidence in global climate change projections in recent years, projections of : climate effects at local scales remains scarce. Location-specific risks to transportation systems : imposed by changes in climate are not yet well kn...

Food Security Under Shifting Economic, Demographic, and Climatic Conditions (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Naylor, R. L.

2013-12-01

Global demand for food, feed, and fuel will continue to rise in a more populous and affluent world. Meeting this demand in the future will become increasingly challenging with global climate change; when production shocks stemming from climate variability are added to the new mean climate state, food markets could become more volatile. This talk will focus on the interacting market effects of demand and supply for major food commodities, with an eye on climate-related supply trends and shocks. Lessons from historical patterns of climate variability (e.g., ENSO and its global teleconnections) will be used to infer potential food security outcomes in the event of abrupt changes in the mean climate state. Domestic food and trade policy responses to crop output and price volatility in key producing and consuming nations, such as export bans and import tariffs, will be discussed as a potentially major destabilizing force, underscoring the important influence of uncertainty in achieving--or failing to achieve--food security.

Impacts on regional climate of an afforestation scenario under a +2°C global warming climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Strada, Susanna; Noblet-Ducoudré Nathalie, de; Marc, Stéfanon

2017-04-01

Through surface-atmosphere interactions (SAI), land-use and land-cover changes (LULCCs) alter atmospheric conditions with effects on climate at different scales, from local/regional (a few ten kilometres) (Pielke et al., 2011) to global scales (a few hundred kilometres) (Mahmood et al., 2014). Focusing on the regional scale, in the context of climate change, LULCCs may either enhance or dampen climate impacts via changes in SAI they may initiate. Those LULCC-driven atmospheric impacts could in turn influence e.g. the functioning of terrestrial ecosystems, with consequences on mitigation and adaptation strategies. Despite LULCC impacts on regional climate are largely discussed in the literature, in Europe information is missing on LULCC impacts under future climate conditions on a country scale (Galos et al., 2015). The latest COPs have urged the scientific community to explore the impacts of reduced global warming (1.5°C to a +2°C) on the Earth system. LULCCs will be one major tool to achieve such targets. In this framework, we investigate impacts on regional climate of a modified landscape under a +2°C climatic scenario. To this purpose, we performed sensitivity studies over western Europe with a fully coupled land-atmosphere regional climate model, WRF-ORCHIDEE (Drobinski et al., 2012, Stefanon et al., 2014). A +2°C scenario was selected among those proposed by the "Impact2C" project (Vautard et al., 2014), and the afforested land-cover scenario proposed in the RCP4.5 is prescribed. We have chosen the maximum extent of forest RCP4.5 simulates for Europe at the end of the 21st century. WRF-ORCHIDEE is fed with boundary atmospheric conditions from the global climate model LMDZ for PD (1971-2000) and the +2°C warming period for the LMDZ model (2028-2057). Preliminary results over the target domain show that, under a +2°C global warming scenario, afforestation contributes by 2% to the total warming due to both climate change and LULCCs. During summer, the afforestation of 1000 km2 increases the mean surface atmospheric temperature by +0.18°C. However, during the same season, afforestation reduces the occurrence of extreme temperatures (> 30°C). By analysing LULCC impacts on both mean climate and extremes, this study aims to possibly raise awareness among decision-makers and land planners on the role LULCCs may play in the context of climate change. References Drobinski, P., et al.: Model of the Regional Coupled Earth system (MORCE): Application to process and climate studies in vulnerable regions, Environ. Modell. Softw., 35, 1-18, 2012. Galos, B., et al.: Regional characteristics of climate change altering effects of afforestation, Environ. Res. Lett., 6, 2015. Mahmood, R., et al.: Land cover changes and their biogeophysical effects on climate, Int. J. Climatol., 34, 929-953, 2014. Pielke, R. A., et al.: Land use/land cover changes and climate: modeling analysis and observational evidence, WIREs Clim Change, 2(6), 828-850, 2011. Stefanon, M., et al.: Simulating the effect of anthropogenic vegetation land cover on heatwave temperatures over central France, Clim. Res., 60: 133-146, 2014. Vautard R., et al.: The European climate under a 2° C global warming. Environ. Res. Lett., 9, 2014.

Using Probabilistic Methods in Water Scarcity Assessments: A First Step Towards a Water Scarcity Risk Assessment Framework

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Veldkamp, Ted; Wada, Yoshihide; Aerts, Jeroen; Ward, Phillip

2016-01-01

Water scarcity -driven by climate change, climate variability, and socioeconomic developments- is recognized as one of the most important global risks, both in terms of likelihood and impact. Whilst a wide range of studies have assessed the role of long term climate change and socioeconomic trends on global water scarcity, the impact of variability is less well understood. Moreover, the interactions between different forcing mechanisms, and their combined effect on changes in water scarcity conditions, are often neglected. Therefore, we provide a first step towards a framework for global water scarcity risk assessments, applying probabilistic methods to estimate water scarcity risks for different return periods under current and future conditions while using multiple climate and socioeconomic scenarios.

Quantifying Risks in the Global Water-Food-Climate Nexus in the Coming Decades: An Integrated Modeling Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schlosser, C. A.; Strzepek, K.; Arndt, C.; Gueneau, A.; Cai, Y.; Gao, X.; Robinson, S.; Sokolov, A. P.; Thurlow, J.

2011-12-01

The growing need for risk-based assessments of impacts and adaptation to regional climate change calls for the quantification of the likelihood of regional outcomes and the representation of their uncertainty. Moreover, our global water resources include energy, agricultural and environmental systems, which are linked together as well as to climate. With the prospect of potential climate change and associated shifts in hydrologic variation and extremes, the MIT Integrated Global Systems Model (IGSM) framework, in collaboration with UNU-WIDER, has enhanced its capabilities to model impacts (or effects) on the managed water-resource systems. We first present a hybrid approach that extends the MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) framework to provide probabilistic projections of regional climate changes. This procedure constructs meta-ensembles of the regional hydro-climate, combining projections from the MIT IGSM that represent global-scale uncertainties with regionally resolved patterns from archived climate-model projections. From these, a river routing and water-resource management module allocates water among irrigation, hydropower, urban/industrial, and in-stream uses and investigate how society might adapt water resources due to shifts in hydro-climate variations and extremes. These results are then incorporated into economic models allowing us to consider the implications of climate for growth, land use, and development prospects. In this model-based investigation, we consider how changes in the regional hydro-climate over major river basins in southern Africa, Vietnam, as well as the United States impact agricultural productivity and water-management systems, and whether adaptive strategies can cope with the more severe climate-related threats to growth and development. All this is cast under a probabilistic description of regional climate changes encompassed by the IGSM framework.

The role of earth radiation budget studies in climate and general circulation research

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ramanathan, V.

1987-01-01

The use of earth radiation budget (ERB) data for climate and general circulation research is studied. ERB measurements obtained in the 1960's and 1970's have provided data on planetary brightness, planetary global energy balances, the greenhouse effect, solar insolation, meridional heat transport by oceans and atmospheres, regional forcing, climate feedback processes, and the computation of albedo values in low latitudes. The role of clouds in governing climate, in influencing the general circulation, and in determining the sensitivity of climate to external perturbations needs to be researched; a procedure for analyzing the ERB data, which will address these problems, is described. The approach involves estimating the clear-sky fluxes from the high spatial resolution scanner measurement and defining a cloud radiative forcing; the global average of the sum of the solar and long-wave cloud forcing yields the net radiative effect of clouds on the climate.

Potential impacts of global climate change on the hydrology and ecology of ephemeral freshwater systems of the forests of the northeastern United States

Treesearch

Robert T. Brooks

2009-01-01

Global, national, and regional assessments of the potential effects of Global Climate Change (GCC) have been recently released, but not one of these assessments has specifically addressed the critical issue of the potential impacts of GCC on ephemeral freshwater systems (EFS). I suggest that this is a major oversight as EFS occur in various forms across the globe. In...

Calentamiento global : ¿Efecto invernadero o actividad solar?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mauas, P. J. D.

Here we discuss some evidences suggesting that solar activity affects the terrestrial climate. We pay particular attention to claims, made by different authors, that global warming is due to an increase in solar activity and not to anthropogenic causes like, mainly, the greenhouse effect. We conclude that, although there are evidences suggesting that solar activity affects the climate at Earth, it seems doubtful that this is the main cause of global warming.

Importance of Sea Ice for Validating Global Climate Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Geiger, Cathleen A.

1997-01-01

Reproduction of current day large-scale physical features and processes is a critical test of global climate model performance. Without this benchmark, prognoses of future climate conditions are at best speculation. A fundamental question relevant to this issue is, which processes and observations are both robust and sensitive enough to be used for model validation and furthermore are they also indicators of the problem at hand? In the case of global climate, one of the problems at hand is to distinguish between anthropogenic and naturally occuring climate responses. The polar regions provide an excellent testing ground to examine this problem because few humans make their livelihood there, such that anthropogenic influences in the polar regions usually spawn from global redistribution of a source originating elsewhere. Concomitantly, polar regions are one of the few places where responses to climate are non-anthropogenic. Thus, if an anthropogenic effect has reached the polar regions (e.g. the case of upper atmospheric ozone sensitivity to CFCs), it has most likely had an impact globally but is more difficult to sort out from local effects in areas where anthropogenic activity is high. Within this context, sea ice has served as both a monitoring platform and sensitivity parameter of polar climate response since the time of Fridtjof Nansen. Sea ice resides in the polar regions at the air-sea interface such that changes in either the global atmospheric or oceanic circulation set up complex non-linear responses in sea ice which are uniquely determined. Sea ice currently covers a maximum of about 7% of the earth's surface but was completely absent during the Jurassic Period and far more extensive during the various ice ages. It is also geophysically very thin (typically <10 m in Arctic, <3 m in Antarctic) compared to the troposphere (roughly 10 km) and deep ocean (roughly 3 to 4 km). Because of these unique conditions, polar researchers regard sea ice as one of the more important features to monitor in terms of heat, mass, and momentum transfer between the air and sea and furthermore, the impact of such responses to global climate.

The value of place-based and in-field education for climate literacy in the Great Lakes: What role for climate and ecological researchers?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Desai, A. R.

2012-12-01

Climate change is fundamentally global in scope and consequently, much education has focused on understanding and addressing global trends, impacts, and solutions. However, for education and outreach at the undergraduate and adult-learner level, the globe, seen as a whole, is a very abstract concept. What exactly does global temperature mean? The nature of this field can make it a frustrating experience when researchers and scholars try to educate their audiences about climate. How can climate scientists and ecologists, with limited time and training in pedagogy, make best use of their local research for regional climate education? Over the past several years, I have sought to use place-based and field-based education methods with undergraduate and graduate students at UW-Madison, tribal college students at the College of Menominee Nation, land managers, and the general public, including journalists, to help provide more concrete understanding of climate impacts in the Great Lakes region. Ecological research site fieldtrips, renewable energy installation visits, local climate measurement investigations, and short field experiments potentially have great value in this regard. I will present some case studies from these experiences and discuss what I have learned from them on effective ways that field experiences can help make the abstract global climate into concrete regional climate literacy.

Water availability in +2°C and +4°C worlds.

PubMed

Fung, Fai; Lopez, Ana; New, Mark

2011-01-13

While the parties to the UNFCCC agreed in the December 2009 Copenhagen Accord that a 2°C global warming over pre-industrial levels should be avoided, current commitments on greenhouse gas emissions reductions from these same parties will lead to a 50 : 50 chance of warming greater than 3.5°C. Here, we evaluate the differences in impacts and adaptation issues for water resources in worlds corresponding to the policy objective (+2°C) and possible reality (+4°C). We simulate the differences in impacts on surface run-off and water resource availability using a global hydrological model driven by ensembles of climate models with global temperature increases of 2°C and 4°C. We combine these with UN-based population growth scenarios to explore the relative importance of population change and climate change for water availability. We find that the projected changes in global surface run-off from the ensemble show an increase in spatial coherence and magnitude for a +4°C world compared with a +2°C one. In a +2°C world, population growth in most large river basins tends to override climate change as a driver of water stress, while in a +4°C world, climate change becomes more dominant, even compensating for population effects where climate change increases run-off. However, in some basins where climate change has positive effects, the seasonality of surface run-off becomes increasingly amplified in a +4°C climate.

From nuclear power to coal power: Aerosol-induced health and radiative effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mielonen, Tero; Laakso, Anton; Karhunen, Anni; Kokkola, Harri; Partanen, Antti-Ilari; Korhonen, Hannele; Romakkaniemi, Sami; Lehtinen, Kari E. J.

2015-12-01

We have investigated what would be the climate and PM-induced air quality consequences if all nuclear reactors worldwide were closed down and replaced by coal combustion. In a way, this presents a "worst-case scenario" since less polluting energy sources are available. We studied simultaneously the radiative and health effects of coal power emissions using a global 3-D aerosol-climate model (ECHAM-HAMMOZ). This approach allowed us to estimate the effects of a major global energy production change from low carbon source to a high carbon one using detailed spatially resolved population density information. We included the radiative effects of both CO2 and PM2.5 but limited the study of health effects to PM2.5 only. Our results show that the replacement of nuclear power with coal power would have globally caused an average of 150,000 premature deaths per year during the period 2005-2009 with two thirds of them in Europe. For 37 years the aerosol emissions from the additional coal power plants would cool the climate but after that the accumulating CO2 emissions would accelerate the warming of the climate.

Climate implications of including albedo effects in terrestrial carbon policy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, A. D.; Collins, W.; Torn, M. S.; Calvin, K. V.

2012-12-01

Proposed strategies for managing terrestrial carbon in order to mitigate anthropogenic climate change, such as financial incentives for afforestation, soil carbon sequestration, or biofuel production, largely ignore the direct effects of land use change on climate via biophysical processes that alter surface energy and water budgets. Subsequent influences on temperature, hydrology, and atmospheric circulation at regional and global scales could potentially help or hinder climate stabilization efforts. Because these policies often rely on payments or credits expressed in units of CO2-equivalents, accounting for biophysical effects would require a metric for comparing the strength of biophysical climate perturbation from land use change to that of emitting CO2. One such candidate metric that has been suggested in the literature on land use impacts is radiative forcing, which underlies the global warming potential metric used to compare the climate effects of various greenhouse gases with one another. Expressing land use change in units of radiative forcing is possible because albedo change results in a net top-of-atmosphere radiative flux change. However, this approach has also been critiqued on theoretical grounds because not all climatic changes associated with land use change are principally radiative in nature, e.g. changes in hydrology or the vertical distribution of heat within the atmosphere, and because the spatial scale of land use change forcing differs from that of well-mixed greenhouse gases. To explore the potential magnitude of this discrepancy in the context of plausible scenarios of future land use change, we conduct three simulations with the Community Climate System Model 4 (CCSM4) utilizing a slab ocean model. Each simulation examines the effect of a stepwise change in forcing relative to a pre-industrial control simulation: 1) widespread conversion of forest land to crops resulting in approximately 1 W/m2 global-mean radiative forcing from albedo change, 2) an increase in CO2 concentrations that exactly balances the forcing from land use change at the global level, and 3) a simulation combining the first two effects, resulting in net zero global-mean forcing as would occur in an idealized carbon cap-and-trade scheme that accounts for the albedo effect of land use change. The pattern of land use change that we examine is derived from an integrated assessment model that accounts for population, demographic, technological, and policy changes over the 21st century. We find significant differences in the pattern of climate change associated with each of these forcing scenarios, demonstrating the non-additivity of radiative forcing from land-use change and greenhouse gases in the context of a hypothetical scenario of future land use change. These results have implications for the development of land use and climate policies.

High potential for weathering and climate effects of non-vascular vegetation in the Late Ordovician

PubMed Central

Porada, P.; Lenton, T. M.; Pohl, A.; Weber, B.; Mander, L.; Donnadieu, Y.; Beer, C.; Pöschl, U.; Kleidon, A.

2016-01-01

It has been hypothesized that predecessors of today's bryophytes significantly increased global chemical weathering in the Late Ordovician, thus reducing atmospheric CO2 concentration and contributing to climate cooling and an interval of glaciations. Studies that try to quantify the enhancement of weathering by non-vascular vegetation, however, are usually limited to small areas and low numbers of species, which hampers extrapolating to the global scale and to past climatic conditions. Here we present a spatially explicit modelling approach to simulate global weathering by non-vascular vegetation in the Late Ordovician. We estimate a potential global weathering flux of 2.8 (km3 rock) yr−1, defined here as volume of primary minerals affected by chemical transformation. This is around three times larger than today's global chemical weathering flux. Moreover, we find that simulated weathering is highly sensitive to atmospheric CO2 concentration. This implies a strong negative feedback between weathering by non-vascular vegetation and Ordovician climate. PMID:27385026

Resource Letter: GW-1: Global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Firor, John W.

1994-06-01

This Resource Letter provides a guide to the literature on the possibility of a human-induced climate change—a global warming. Journal articles and books are cited for the following topics: the Greenhouse Effect, sources of infrared-trapping gases, climate models and their uncertainties, verification of climate models, past climate changes, and economics, ethics, and politics of policy responses to climate change. [The letter E after an item indicates elementary level or material of general interest to persons becoming informed in the field. The letter I, for intermediate level, indicates material of somewhat more specialized nature, and the letter A indicates rather specialized or advanced material.

Climate mediates the effects of disturbance on ant assemblage structure

PubMed Central

Gibb, Heloise; Sanders, Nathan J.; Dunn, Robert R.; Watson, Simon; Photakis, Manoli; Abril, Silvia; Andersen, Alan N.; Angulo, Elena; Armbrecht, Inge; Arnan, Xavier; Baccaro, Fabricio B.; Bishop, Tom R.; Boulay, Raphael; Castracani, Cristina; Del Toro, Israel; Delsinne, Thibaut; Diaz, Mireia; Donoso, David A.; Enríquez, Martha L.; Fayle, Tom M.; Feener, Donald H.; Fitzpatrick, Matthew C.; Gómez, Crisanto; Grasso, Donato A.; Groc, Sarah; Heterick, Brian; Hoffmann, Benjamin D.; Lach, Lori; Lattke, John; Leponce, Maurice; Lessard, Jean-Philippe; Longino, John; Lucky, Andrea; Majer, Jonathan; Menke, Sean B.; Mezger, Dirk; Mori, Alessandra; Munyai, Thinandavha C.; Paknia, Omid; Pearce-Duvet, Jessica; Pfeiffer, Martin; Philpott, Stacy M.; de Souza, Jorge L. P.; Tista, Melanie; Vasconcelos, Heraldo L.; Vonshak, Merav; Parr, Catherine L.

2015-01-01

Many studies have focused on the impacts of climate change on biological assemblages, yet little is known about how climate interacts with other major anthropogenic influences on biodiversity, such as habitat disturbance. Using a unique global database of 1128 local ant assemblages, we examined whether climate mediates the effects of habitat disturbance on assemblage structure at a global scale. Species richness and evenness were associated positively with temperature, and negatively with disturbance. However, the interaction among temperature, precipitation and disturbance shaped species richness and evenness. The effect was manifested through a failure of species richness to increase substantially with temperature in transformed habitats at low precipitation. At low precipitation levels, evenness increased with temperature in undisturbed sites, peaked at medium temperatures in disturbed sites and remained low in transformed sites. In warmer climates with lower rainfall, the effects of increasing disturbance on species richness and evenness were akin to decreases in temperature of up to 9°C. Anthropogenic disturbance and ongoing climate change may interact in complicated ways to shape the structure of assemblages, with hot, arid environments likely to be at greatest risk. PMID:25994675

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kerr, R.A.

As scientists and politicians anxiously eye signs of global greenhouse warming, climatologists are finding the best evidence yet that a massive volcanic eruption can temporarily bring the temperature down a notch or two. Such a cooling could be enough to set the current global warming back more than a decade, confusing any efforts to link it to the greenhouse effect. By effectively eliminating some nonvolcanic climate changes from the record of the past 100 years, researchers have detected drops in global temperature of several tenths of a degree within 1 to 2 years of volcanic eruptions. Apparently, the debris spewedmore » into the stratosphere blocked sunlight and caused the temperature drops. For all their potential social significance, the climate effects of volcanoes have been hard to detect. The problem has been in identifying a volcanic cooling among the nearly continuous climate warmings and coolings of a similar size that fill the record. The paper reviews how this was done.« less

Reconstructing Student Conceptions of Climate Change; An Inquiry Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McClelland, J. Collin

No other environmental issue today has as much potential to alter life on Earth as does global climate change. Scientific evidence continues to grow; indicating that climate change is occurring now, and that change is a result of human activities (National Research Council [NRC], 2010). The need for climate literacy in society has become increasingly urgent. Unfortunately, understanding the concepts necessary for climate literacy remains a challenge for most individuals. A growing research base has identified a number of common misconceptions people have about climate literacy concepts (Leiserowitz, Smith, & Marlon 2011; Shepardson, Niyogi, Choi, & Charusombat, 2009). However, few have explored this understanding in high school students. This sequential mixed methods study explored the changing conceptions of global climate change in 90 sophomore biology students through the course of their participation in an eight-week inquiry-based global climate change unit. The study also explored changes in students' attitudes over the course of the study unit, contemplating possible relationships between students' conceptual understanding of and attitudes toward global climate change. Phase I of the mixed methods study included quantitative analysis of pre-post content knowledge and attitude assessment data. Content knowledge gains were statistically significant and over 25% of students in the study shifted from an expressed belief of denial or uncertainty about global warming to one of belief in it. Phase II used an inductive approach to explore student attitudes and conceptions. Conceptually, very few students grew to a scientifically accurate understanding of the greenhouse effect or the relationship between global warming and climate change. However, they generally made progress in their conceptual understanding by adding more specific detail to explain their understanding. Phase III employed a case study approach with eight purposefully selected student cases, identifying five common conceptual and five common attitudebased themes. Findings suggest similar misconceptions revealed in prior research also occurred in this study group. Some examples include; connecting global warming to the hole in the ozone layer, and falsely linking unrelated environmental issues like littering to climate change. Data about students' conceptual understanding of energy may also have implications for education research curriculum development. Similar to Driver & While no statistical relationship between students' attitudes about global climate change and overall conceptual understanding emerged, some data suggested that climate change skeptics may perceive the concept of evidence differently than non-skeptics. One-way ANOVA data comparing skeptics with other students on evidence-based assessment items was significant. This study offers insights to teachers of potential barriers students face when trying to conceptualize global climate change concepts. More importantly it reinforces the idea that students generally find value in learning about global climate change in the classroom.

The Implications of Future Food Demand on Global Land Use, Land-Use Change Emissions, and Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Calvin, K. V.; Wise, M.; Kyle, P.; Luckow, P.; Clarke, L.; Edmonds, J.; Eom, J.; Kim, S.; Moss, R.; Patel, P.

2011-12-01

In 2005, cropland accounted for approximately 10% of global land area. The amount of cropland needed in the future depends on a number of factors including global population, dietary preferences, and agricultural crop yields. In this paper, we explore the effect of various assumptions about global food demand and agricultural productivity between now and 2100 on global land use, land-use change emissions, and climate using the GCAM model. GCAM is a global integrated assessment model, linking submodules of the regionally disaggregated, global economy, energy system, agriculture and land-use, terrestrial carbon cycle, oceans and climate. GCAM simulates supply, demand, and prices for energy and agricultural goods from 2005 to 2100 in 5-year increments. In each time period, the model computes the allocation of land across a variety of land cover types in 151 different regions, assuming that farmers maximize profits and that food demand is relatively inelastic. For this analysis, we look at the effect of alternative socioeconomic pathways, crop yield improvement assumptions, and future meat demand scenarios on the demand for agricultural land. The three socioeconomic pathways explore worlds where global population in 2100 ranges from 6 billion people to 14 billion people. The crop yield improvement assumptions range from a world where yields do not improve beyond today's levels to a world with significantly higher crop productivity. The meat demand scenarios range from a vegetarian world to a world where meat is a dominant source of calories in the global diet. For each of these scenarios, we find that sufficient land exists to feed the global economy. However, rates of deforestation, bioenergy potential, land-use change emissions, and climate change differ across the scenarios. Under less favorable scenarios, deforestation rates, land-use change emissions, and the rate of climate change can be adversely affected.

Some coolness concerning global warming

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lindzen, Richard S.

1990-01-01

The greenhouse effect hypothesis is discussed. The effects of increasing CO2 levels in the atmosphere on global temperature changes are analyzed. The problems with models currently used to predict climatic changes are examined.

Spectators or participants: How can SETAC become more engaged in international climate change research programs?

PubMed

Stahl, Ralph G; Stauber, Jennifer L; Clements, William H

2017-08-01

Environmental toxicologists and chemists have been crucial to evaluating the chemical fate and toxicological effects of environmental contaminants, including chlorinated pesticides, before and after Rachel Carson's publication of Silent Spring in 1962. Like chlorinated pesticides previously, global climate change is widely considered to be one of the most important environmental challenges of our time. Over the past 30 yr, climate scientists and modelers have shown that greenhouse gases such as CO 2 and CH 4 cause radiative forcing (climate forcing) and lead to increased global temperatures. Despite significant climate change research efforts worldwide, the climate science community has overlooked potential problems associated with chemical contaminants, in particular how climate change could magnify the ecological consequences of their use and disposal. It is conceivable that the impacts of legacy or new chemical contaminants on wildlife and humans may be exacerbated when climate changes, especially if global temperatures rise as predicted. This lack of attention to chemical contaminants represents an opportunity for environmental toxicologists and chemists to become part of the global research program, and our objective is to highlight the importance of and ways for that to occur. Environ Toxicol Chem 2017;36:1971-1977. © 2017 SETAC. © 2017 SETAC.

Globally Increased Crop Growth and Cropping Intensity from the Long-Term Satellite-Based Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Bin

2018-04-01

Understanding the spatiotemporal change trend of global crop growth and multiple cropping system under climate change scenarios is a critical requirement for supporting the food security issue that maintains the function of human society. Many studies have predicted the effects of climate changes on crop production using a combination of filed studies and models, but there has been limited evidence relating decadal-scale climate change to global crop growth and the spatiotemporal distribution of multiple cropping system. Using long-term satellite-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and observed climate data from 1982 to 2012, we investigated the crop growth trend, spatiotemporal pattern trend of agricultural cropping intensity, and their potential correlations with respect to the climate change drivers at a global scale. Results show that 82.97 % of global cropland maximum NDVI witnesses an increased trend while 17.03 % of that shows a decreased trend over the past three decades. The spatial distribution of multiple cropping system is observed to expand from lower latitude to higher latitude, and the increased cropping intensity is also witnessed globally. In terms of regional major crop zones, results show that all nine selected zones have an obvious upward trend of crop maximum NDVI (p < 0.001), and as for climatic drivers, the gradual temperature and precipitation changes have had a measurable impact on the crop growth trend.

Cirrus Cloud Seeding has Potential to Cool Climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Storelvmo, T.; Kristjansson, J. E.; Muri, H.; Pfeffer, M.; Barahona, D.; Nenes, A.

2013-01-01

Cirrus clouds, thin ice clouds in the upper troposphere, have a net warming effect on Earth s climate. Consequently, a reduction in cirrus cloud amount or optical thickness would cool the climate. Recent research indicates that by seeding cirrus clouds with particles that promote ice nucleation, their lifetimes and coverage could be reduced. We have tested this hypothesis in a global climate model with a state-of-the-art representation of cirrus clouds and find that cirrus cloud seeding has the potential to cancel the entire warming caused by human activity from pre-industrial times to present day. However, the desired effect is only obtained for seeding particle concentrations that lie within an optimal range. With lower than optimal particle concentrations, a seeding exercise would have no effect. Moreover, a higher than optimal concentration results in an over-seeding that could have the deleterious effect of prolonging cirrus lifetime and contributing to global warming.

Mapping adaptation opportunities and activities in an interactive atlas.

PubMed

Morris, Daniel F; Krishnan, Nisha

2012-01-01

The need for transparency is taking more prominence in international climate negotiations as developed countries pledge large sums of money to foster adaptation efforts in developing countries. Tools that provide accurate and up-to-date spatial information that can be easily used and vetted by local practitioners may provide effective and affordable ways to improve transparency. The Global Adaptation Atlas is such a tool, combining vetted, publicly available climate impact data with timely maps of on the ground adaptation projects to highlight confluences of effects of climate change with actions taken to address those effects. Here, we describe the structure and general functions of the Global Adaptation Atlas and explain how it may be utilized to track short-term investments in adaptation. Over longer time scales, it may also help gauge the effectiveness of specific adaptation investments as well as reveal how different climate impacts affect long-term investment in differing regions.

Air, Climate and Energy (ACE) Centers: Supporting Air Quality and Climate Solutions

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

EPA through its Science to Achieve Results (STAR) program, is providing $30 million in funding for three university-based research centers to investigate regional differences in air pollution and the effects of global climate change.

Climatic change controls productivity variation in global grasslands

PubMed Central

Gao, Qingzhu; Zhu, Wenquan; Schwartz, Mark W.; Ganjurjav, Hasbagan; Wan, Yunfan; Qin, Xiaobo; Ma, Xin; Williamson, Matthew A.; Li, Yue

2016-01-01

Detection and identification of the impacts of climate change on ecosystems have been core issues in climate change research in recent years. In this study, we compared average annual values of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) with theoretical net primary productivity (NPP) values based on temperature and precipitation to determine the effect of historic climate change on global grassland productivity from 1982 to 2011. Comparison of trends in actual productivity (NDVI) with climate-induced potential productivity showed that the trends in average productivity in nearly 40% of global grassland areas have been significantly affected by climate change. The contribution of climate change to variability in grassland productivity was 15.2–71.2% during 1982–2011. Climate change contributed significantly to long-term trends in grassland productivity mainly in North America, central Eurasia, central Africa, and Oceania; these regions will be more sensitive to future climate change impacts. The impacts of climate change on variability in grassland productivity were greater in the Western Hemisphere than the Eastern Hemisphere. Confirmation of the observed trends requires long-term controlled experiments and multi-model ensembles to reduce uncertainties and explain mechanisms. PMID:27243565

Desert dust and anthropogenic aerosol interactions in the Community Climate System Model coupled-carbon-climate model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mahowald, Natalie; Rothenberg, D.; Lindsay, Keith

2011-02-01

Coupled-carbon-climate simulations are an essential tool for predicting the impact of human activity onto the climate and biogeochemistry. Here we incorporate prognostic desert dust and anthropogenic aerosols into the CCSM3.1 coupled carbon-climate model and explore the resulting interactions with climate and biogeochemical dynamics through a series of transient anthropogenic simulations (20th and 21st centuries) and sensitivity studies. The inclusion of prognostic aerosols into this model has a small net global cooling effect on climate but does not significantly impact the globally averaged carbon cycle; we argue that this is likely to be because the CCSM3.1 model has a small climatemore » feedback onto the carbon cycle. We propose a mechanism for including desert dust and anthropogenic aerosols into a simple carbon-climate feedback analysis to explain the results of our and previous studies. Inclusion of aerosols has statistically significant impacts on regional climate and biogeochemistry, in particular through the effects on the ocean nitrogen cycle and primary productivity of altered iron inputs from desert dust deposition.« less

Thirteen Years after Rio: The State of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy in Canada

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Karimi, Shahram

2005-01-01

Greenhouse gas emissions are adversely affecting the earth's climate, a global common and a public good. The contribution of individual countries has a limited effect on the biosphere, implying that only globally coordinated efforts may result in significant climate improvements. The Rio Earth Summit (1992) and Kyoto Protocol (1997) are…

Understanding recent climate change.

PubMed

Serreze, Mark C

2010-02-01

The Earth's atmosphere has a natural greenhouse effect, without which the global mean surface temperature would be about 33 degrees C lower and life would not be possible. Human activities have increased atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane, and other gases in trace amounts. This has enhanced the greenhouse effect, resulting in surface warming. Were it not for the partly offsetting effects of increased aerosol concentrations, the increase in global mean surface temperature over the past 100 years would be larger than observed. Continued surface warming through the 21st century is inevitable and will likely have widespread ecological impacts. The magnitude and rate of warming for the global average will be largely dictated by the strength and direction of climate feedbacks, thermal inertia of the oceans, the rate of greenhouse gas emissions, and aerosol concentrations. Because of regional expressions of climate feedbacks, changes in atmospheric circulation, and a suite of other factors, the magnitude and rate of warming and changes in other key climate elements, such as precipitation, will not be uniform across the planet. For example, due to loss of its floating sea-ice cover, the Arctic will warm the most.

Climate change: Conflict of observational science, theory, and politics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gerhard, L.C.

2004-01-01

Debate over whether human activity causes Earth climate change obscures the immensity of the dynamic systems that create and maintain climate on the planet. Anthropocentric debate leads people to believe that they can alter these planetary dynamic systems to prevent that they perceive as negative climate impacts on human civilization. Although politicians offer simplistic remedies, such as the Kyoto Protocol, global climate continues to change naturally. Better planning for the inevitable dislocations that have followed natural global climate changes throughout human history requires us to accept the fact that climate will change, and that human society must adapt to the changes. Over the last decade, the scientific literature reported a shift in emphasis from attempting to build theoretical models of putative human impacts on climate to understanding the planetwide dynamic processes that are the natural climate drivers. The current scientific literature is beginning to report the history of past climate change, the extent of natural climate variability, natural system drivers, and the episodicity of many climate changes. The scientific arguments have broadened from focus upon human effects on climate to include the array of natural phenomena that have driven global climate change for eons. However, significant political issues with long-term social consequences continue their advance. This paper summarizes recent scientific progress in climate science and arguments about human influence on climate. ?? 2004. The American Association of Petroleum Geologists. All rights reserved.

An Initial Look at DoD’s Activities Toward Climate Change Resiliency: An Annotated Bibliography

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-02-01

Draft Working Paper An Initial Look at DoD’s Activities Toward Climate Change Resiliency An Annotated Bibliography Susan A. Resetar and Neil Berg...contribute www.rand.org iii Preface The global effects of climate change could have widespread effects and thus pose concerns for all governments...effects and consider possible responses. Many elements of the Department have taken steps to begin dealing with the implications of climate change

Global and Regional Temperature-change Potentials for Near-term Climate Forcers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Collins, W.J.; Fry, M.M.; Yu, H.; Fuglestvedt, J. S.; Shindell, D. T.; West, J. J.

2013-01-01

We examine the climate effects of the emissions of near-term climate forcers (NTCFs) from 4 continental regions (East Asia, Europe, North America and South Asia) using results from the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution Source-Receptor global chemical transport model simulations. We address 3 aerosol species (sulphate, particulate organic matter and black carbon) and 4 ozone precursors (methane, reactive nitrogen oxides (NOx), volatile organic compounds and carbon monoxide). We calculate the global climate metrics: global warming potentials (GWPs) and global temperature change potentials (GTPs). For the aerosols these metrics are simply time-dependent scalings of the equilibrium radiative forcings. The GTPs decrease more rapidly with time than the GWPs. The aerosol forcings and hence climate metrics have only a modest dependence on emission region. The metrics for ozone precursors include the effects on the methane lifetime. The impacts via methane are particularly important for the 20 yr GTPs. Emissions of NOx and VOCs from South Asia have GWPs and GTPs of higher magnitude than from the other Northern Hemisphere regions. The analysis is further extended by examining the temperature-change impacts in 4 latitude bands, and calculating absolute regional temperature-change potentials (ARTPs). The latitudinal pattern of the temperature response does not directly follow the pattern of the diagnosed radiative forcing. We find that temperatures in the Arctic latitudes appear to be particularly sensitive to BC emissions from South Asia. The northern mid-latitude temperature response to northern mid-latitude emissions is approximately twice as large as the global average response for aerosol emission, and about 20-30% larger than the global average for methane, VOC and CO emissions.

The Net Climate Impact of Coal-Fired Power Plant Emissions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shindell, D.; Faluvegi, G.

2010-01-01

Coal-fired power plants influence climate via both the emission of long-lived carbon dioxide (CO2) and short-lived ozone and aerosol precursors. Using a climate model, we perform the first study of the spatial and temporal pattern of radiative forcing specifically for coal plant emissions. Without substantial pollution controls, we find that near-term net global mean climate forcing is negative due to the well-known aerosol masking of the effects of CO2. Imposition of pollution controls on sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides leads to a rapid realization of the full positive forcing from CO2, however. Long-term global mean forcing from stable (constant) emissions is positive regardless of pollution controls. Emissions from coal-fired power plants until 1970, including roughly 1/3 of total anthropogenic CO2 emissions, likely contributed little net global mean climate forcing during that period though they may have induce weak Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude (NHml) cooling. After that time many areas imposed pollution controls or switched to low sulfur coal. Hence forcing due to emissions from 1970 to 2000 and CO2 emitted previously was strongly positive and contributed to rapid global and especially NHml warming. Most recently, new construction in China and India has increased rapidly with minimal application of pollution controls. Continuation of this trend would add negative near-term global mean climate forcing but severely degrade air quality. Conversely, following the Western and Japanese pattern of imposing air quality pollution controls at a later time could accelerate future warming rates, especially at NHmls. More broadly, our results indicate that due to spatial and temporal inhomogeneities in forcing, climate impacts of multi-pollutant emissions can vary strongly from region to region and can include substantial effects on maximum rate-of-change, neither of which are captured by commonly used global metrics. The method we introduce here to estimate regional temperature responses may provide additional insight.

The net climate impact of coal-fired power plant emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shindell, D.; Faluvegi, G.

2010-04-01

Coal-fired power plants influence climate via both the emission of long-lived carbon dioxide (CO2) and short-lived ozone and aerosol precursors. Using a climate model, we perform the first study of the spatial and temporal pattern of radiative forcing specifically for coal plant emissions. Without substantial pollution controls, we find that near-term net global mean climate forcing is negative due to the well-known aerosol masking of the effects of CO2. Imposition of pollution controls on sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides leads to a rapid realization of the full positive forcing from CO2, however. Long-term global mean forcing from stable (constant) emissions is positive regardless of pollution controls. Emissions from coal-fired power plants until ~1970, including roughly 1/3 of total anthropogenic CO2 emissions, likely contributed little net global mean climate forcing during that period though they may have induce weak Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude (NHml) cooling. After that time many areas imposed pollution controls or switched to low-sulfur coal. Hence forcing due to emissions from 1970 to 2000 and CO2 emitted previously was strongly positive and contributed to rapid global and especially NHml warming. Most recently, new construction in China and India has increased rapidly with minimal application of pollution controls. Continuation of this trend would add negative near-term global mean climate forcing but severely degrade air quality. Conversely, following the Western and Japanese pattern of imposing air quality pollution controls at a later time could accelerate future warming rates, especially at NHmls. More broadly, our results indicate that due to spatial and temporal inhomogenaities in forcing, climate impacts of multi-pollutant emissions can vary strongly from region to region and can include substantial effects on maximum rate-of-change, neither of which are captured by commonly used global metrics. The method we introduce here to estimate regional temperature responses may provide additional insight.

Complex spatiotemporal responses of global terrestrial primary production to climate change and increasing atmospheric CO2 in the 21st century.

PubMed

Pan, Shufen; Tian, Hanqin; Dangal, Shree R S; Zhang, Chi; Yang, Jia; Tao, Bo; Ouyang, Zhiyun; Wang, Xiaoke; Lu, Chaoqun; Ren, Wei; Banger, Kamaljit; Yang, Qichun; Zhang, Bowen; Li, Xia

2014-01-01

Quantitative information on the response of global terrestrial net primary production (NPP) to climate change and increasing atmospheric CO2 is essential for climate change adaptation and mitigation in the 21st century. Using a process-based ecosystem model (the Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model, DLEM), we quantified the magnitude and spatiotemporal variations of contemporary (2000s) global NPP, and projected its potential responses to climate and CO2 changes in the 21st century under the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A2 and B1 of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). We estimated a global terrestrial NPP of 54.6 (52.8-56.4) PgC yr(-1) as a result of multiple factors during 2000-2009. Climate change would either reduce global NPP (4.6%) under the A2 scenario or slightly enhance NPP (2.2%) under the B1 scenario during 2010-2099. In response to climate change, global NPP would first increase until surface air temperature increases by 1.5 °C (until the 2030s) and then level-off or decline after it increases by more than 1.5 °C (after the 2030s). This result supports the Copenhagen Accord Acknowledgement, which states that staying below 2 °C may not be sufficient and the need to potentially aim for staying below 1.5 °C. The CO2 fertilization effect would result in a 12%-13.9% increase in global NPP during the 21st century. The relative CO2 fertilization effect, i.e. change in NPP on per CO2 (ppm) bases, is projected to first increase quickly then level off in the 2070s and even decline by the end of the 2080s, possibly due to CO2 saturation and nutrient limitation. Terrestrial NPP responses to climate change and elevated atmospheric CO2 largely varied among biomes, with the largest increases in the tundra and boreal needleleaf deciduous forest. Compared to the low emission scenario (B1), the high emission scenario (A2) would lead to larger spatiotemporal variations in NPP, and more dramatic and counteracting impacts from climate and increasing atmospheric CO2.

Complex Spatiotemporal Responses of Global Terrestrial Primary Production to Climate Change and Increasing Atmospheric CO2 in the 21st Century

PubMed Central

Pan, Shufen; Tian, Hanqin; Dangal, Shree R. S.; Zhang, Chi; Yang, Jia; Tao, Bo; Ouyang, Zhiyun; Wang, Xiaoke; Lu, Chaoqun; Ren, Wei; Banger, Kamaljit; Yang, Qichun; Zhang, Bowen; Li, Xia

2014-01-01

Quantitative information on the response of global terrestrial net primary production (NPP) to climate change and increasing atmospheric CO2 is essential for climate change adaptation and mitigation in the 21st century. Using a process-based ecosystem model (the Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model, DLEM), we quantified the magnitude and spatiotemporal variations of contemporary (2000s) global NPP, and projected its potential responses to climate and CO2 changes in the 21st century under the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A2 and B1 of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). We estimated a global terrestrial NPP of 54.6 (52.8–56.4) PgC yr−1 as a result of multiple factors during 2000–2009. Climate change would either reduce global NPP (4.6%) under the A2 scenario or slightly enhance NPP (2.2%) under the B1 scenario during 2010–2099. In response to climate change, global NPP would first increase until surface air temperature increases by 1.5°C (until the 2030s) and then level-off or decline after it increases by more than 1.5°C (after the 2030s). This result supports the Copenhagen Accord Acknowledgement, which states that staying below 2°C may not be sufficient and the need to potentially aim for staying below 1.5°C. The CO2 fertilization effect would result in a 12%–13.9% increase in global NPP during the 21st century. The relative CO2 fertilization effect, i.e. change in NPP on per CO2 (ppm) bases, is projected to first increase quickly then level off in the 2070s and even decline by the end of the 2080s, possibly due to CO2 saturation and nutrient limitation. Terrestrial NPP responses to climate change and elevated atmospheric CO2 largely varied among biomes, with the largest increases in the tundra and boreal needleleaf deciduous forest. Compared to the low emission scenario (B1), the high emission scenario (A2) would lead to larger spatiotemporal variations in NPP, and more dramatic and counteracting impacts from climate and increasing atmospheric CO2. PMID:25401492

CO2 embodied in international trade with implications for global climate policy.

PubMed

Peters, Glen P; Hertwich, Edgar G

2008-03-01

The flow of pollution through international trade flows has the ability to undermine environmental policies, particularly for global pollutants. In this article we determine the CO2 emissions embodied in international trade among 87 countries for the year 2001. We find that globally there are over 5.3 Gt of CO2 embodied in trade and that Annex B countries are net importers of CO2 emissions. Depending on country characteristics--such as size variables and geographic location--there are considerable variations in the embodied emissions. We argue that emissions embodied in trade may have a significant impact on participation in and effectiveness of global climate policies such as the Kyoto Protocol. We discuss several policy options to reduce the impact of trade in global climate policy. If countries take binding commitments as a part of a coalition, instead of as individual countries, then the impacts of trade can be substantially reduced. Adjusting emission inventories for trade gives a more consistent description of a country's environmental pressures and circumvents many trade related issues. It also gives opportunities to exploit trade as a means of mitigating emissions. Not least, a better understanding of the role that trade plays in a country's economic and environmental development will help design more effective and participatory climate policy post-Kyoto.

Developing country finance in a post-2020 global climate agreement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hannam, Phillip M.; Liao, Zhenliang; Davis, Steven J.; Oppenheimer, Michael

2015-11-01

A central task for negotiators of the post-2020 global climate agreement is to construct a finance regime that supports low-carbon development in developing economies. As power sector investments between developing countries grow, the climate finance regime should incentivize the decarbonization of these major sources of finance by integrating them as a complement to the commitments of developed nations. The emergence of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, South-South Cooperation Fund and other nascent institutions reveal the fissures that exist in rules and norms surrounding international finance in the power sector. Structuring the climate agreement in Paris to credit qualified finance from the developing world could have several advantages, including: (1) encouraging low-carbon cooperation between developing countries; (2) incentivizing emerging investors to prefer low-carbon investments; and (3) enabling more cost-effective attainment of national and global climate objectives. Failure to coordinate on standards now could hinder low-carbon development in the decades to come.

Seasonal to interannual Arctic sea ice predictability in current global climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tietsche, S.; Day, J. J.; Guemas, V.; Hurlin, W. J.; Keeley, S. P. E.; Matei, D.; Msadek, R.; Collins, M.; Hawkins, E.

2014-02-01

We establish the first intermodel comparison of seasonal to interannual predictability of present-day Arctic climate by performing coordinated sets of idealized ensemble predictions with four state-of-the-art global climate models. For Arctic sea ice extent and volume, there is potential predictive skill for lead times of up to 3 years, and potential prediction errors have similar growth rates and magnitudes across the models. Spatial patterns of potential prediction errors differ substantially between the models, but some features are robust. Sea ice concentration errors are largest in the marginal ice zone, and in winter they are almost zero away from the ice edge. Sea ice thickness errors are amplified along the coasts of the Arctic Ocean, an effect that is dominated by sea ice advection. These results give an upper bound on the ability of current global climate models to predict important aspects of Arctic climate.

Assessing the effects of anthropogenic aerosols on Pacific storm track using a multiscale global climate model

PubMed Central

Wang, Yuan; Wang, Minghuai; Zhang, Renyi; Ghan, Steven J.; Lin, Yun; Hu, Jiaxi; Pan, Bowen; Levy, Misti; Jiang, Jonathan H.; Molina, Mario J.

2014-01-01

Atmospheric aerosols affect weather and global general circulation by modifying cloud and precipitation processes, but the magnitude of cloud adjustment by aerosols remains poorly quantified and represents the largest uncertainty in estimated forcing of climate change. Here we assess the effects of anthropogenic aerosols on the Pacific storm track, using a multiscale global aerosol–climate model (GCM). Simulations of two aerosol scenarios corresponding to the present day and preindustrial conditions reveal long-range transport of anthropogenic aerosols across the north Pacific and large resulting changes in the aerosol optical depth, cloud droplet number concentration, and cloud and ice water paths. Shortwave and longwave cloud radiative forcing at the top of atmosphere are changed by −2.5 and +1.3 W m−2, respectively, by emission changes from preindustrial to present day, and an increased cloud top height indicates invigorated midlatitude cyclones. The overall increased precipitation and poleward heat transport reflect intensification of the Pacific storm track by anthropogenic aerosols. Hence, this work provides, for the first time to the authors’ knowledge, a global perspective of the effects of Asian pollution outflows from GCMs. Furthermore, our results suggest that the multiscale modeling framework is essential in producing the aerosol invigoration effect of deep convective clouds on a global scale. PMID:24733923

Assessing the effects of anthropogenic aerosols on Pacific storm track using a multiscale global climate model.

PubMed

Wang, Yuan; Wang, Minghuai; Zhang, Renyi; Ghan, Steven J; Lin, Yun; Hu, Jiaxi; Pan, Bowen; Levy, Misti; Jiang, Jonathan H; Molina, Mario J

2014-05-13

Atmospheric aerosols affect weather and global general circulation by modifying cloud and precipitation processes, but the magnitude of cloud adjustment by aerosols remains poorly quantified and represents the largest uncertainty in estimated forcing of climate change. Here we assess the effects of anthropogenic aerosols on the Pacific storm track, using a multiscale global aerosol-climate model (GCM). Simulations of two aerosol scenarios corresponding to the present day and preindustrial conditions reveal long-range transport of anthropogenic aerosols across the north Pacific and large resulting changes in the aerosol optical depth, cloud droplet number concentration, and cloud and ice water paths. Shortwave and longwave cloud radiative forcing at the top of atmosphere are changed by -2.5 and +1.3 W m(-2), respectively, by emission changes from preindustrial to present day, and an increased cloud top height indicates invigorated midlatitude cyclones. The overall increased precipitation and poleward heat transport reflect intensification of the Pacific storm track by anthropogenic aerosols. Hence, this work provides, for the first time to the authors' knowledge, a global perspective of the effects of Asian pollution outflows from GCMs. Furthermore, our results suggest that the multiscale modeling framework is essential in producing the aerosol invigoration effect of deep convective clouds on a global scale.

Anthropogenic nitrogen deposition alters growth responses of European beech (Fagus sylvativa L.) to climate change.

PubMed

Hess, Carsten; Niemeyer, Thomas; Fichtner, Andreas; Jansen, Kirstin; Kunz, Matthias; Maneke, Moritz; von Wehrden, Henrik; Quante, Markus; Walmsley, David; von Oheimb, Goddert; Härdtle, Werner

2018-02-01

Global change affects the functioning of forest ecosystems and the services they provide, but little is known about the interactive effects of co-occurring global change drivers on important functions such as tree growth and vitality. In the present study we quantified the interactive (i.e. synergistic or antagonistic) effects of atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition and climatic variables (temperature, precipitation) on tree growth (in terms of tree-ring width, TRW), taking forest ecosystems with European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) as an example. We hypothesised that (i) N deposition and climatic variables can evoke non-additive responses of the radial increment of beech trees, and (ii) N loads have the potential to strengthen the trees' sensitivity to climate change. In young stands, we found a synergistic positive effect of N deposition and annual mean temperature on TRW, possibly linked to the alleviation of an N shortage in young stands. In mature stands, however, high N deposition significantly increased the trees' sensitivity to increasing annual mean temperatures (antagonistic effect on TRW), possibly due to increased fine root dieback, decreasing mycorrhizal colonization or shifts in biomass allocation patterns (aboveground vs. belowground). Accordingly, N deposition and climatic variables caused both synergistic and antagonistic effects on the radial increment of beech trees, depending on tree age and stand characteristics. Hence, the nature of interactions could mediate the long-term effects of global change drivers (including N deposition) on forest carbon sequestration. In conclusion, our findings illustrate that interaction processes between climatic variables and N deposition are complex and have the potential to impair growth and performance of European beech. This in turn emphasises the importance of multiple-factor studies to foster an integrated understanding and models aiming at improved projections of tree growth responses to co-occurring drivers of global change. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Separating direct and indirect effects of global change: a population dynamic modeling approach using readily available field data.

PubMed

Farrer, Emily C; Ashton, Isabel W; Knape, Jonas; Suding, Katharine N

2014-04-01

Two sources of complexity make predicting plant community response to global change particularly challenging. First, realistic global change scenarios involve multiple drivers of environmental change that can interact with one another to produce non-additive effects. Second, in addition to these direct effects, global change drivers can indirectly affect plants by modifying species interactions. In order to tackle both of these challenges, we propose a novel population modeling approach, requiring only measurements of abundance and climate over time. To demonstrate the applicability of this approach, we model population dynamics of eight abundant plant species in a multifactorial global change experiment in alpine tundra where we manipulated nitrogen, precipitation, and temperature over 7 years. We test whether indirect and interactive effects are important to population dynamics and whether explicitly incorporating species interactions can change predictions when models are forecast under future climate change scenarios. For three of the eight species, population dynamics were best explained by direct effect models, for one species neither direct nor indirect effects were important, and for the other four species indirect effects mattered. Overall, global change had negative effects on species population growth, although species responded to different global change drivers, and single-factor effects were slightly more common than interactive direct effects. When the fitted population dynamic models were extrapolated under changing climatic conditions to the end of the century, forecasts of community dynamics and diversity loss were largely similar using direct effect models that do not explicitly incorporate species interactions or best-fit models; however, inclusion of species interactions was important in refining the predictions for two of the species. The modeling approach proposed here is a powerful way of analyzing readily available datasets which should be added to our toolbox to tease apart complex drivers of global change. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Delay-induced rebounds in CO2 emissions and critical time-scales to meet global warming targets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manoli, Gabriele; Katul, Gabriel G.; Marani, Marco

2016-12-01

While climate science debates are focused on the attainment of peak anthropogenic CO2 emissions and policy tools to reduce peak temperatures, the human-energy-climate system can hold "rebound" surprises beyond this peak. Following the second industrial revolution, global per capita CO2 emissions (cc) experienced a punctuated growth of about 100% every 60 years, mainly attributable to technological development and its global spread. A model of the human-energy-climate system capable of reproducing past punctuated dynamics shows that rebounds in global CO2 emissions emerge due to delays intrinsic to the diffusion of innovations. Such intrinsic delays in the adoption and spread of low-carbon emitting technologies, together with projected population growth, upset the warming target set by the Paris Agreement. To avoid rebounds and their negative climate effects, model calculations show that the diffusion of climate-friendly technologies must occur with lags one-order of magnitude shorter (i.e., ˜6 years) than the characteristic timescale of past punctuated growth in cc. Radically new strategies to globally implement the technological advances at unprecedented rates are needed if the current emission goals are to be achieved.

Downscaling CMIP5 climate models shows increased tropical cyclone activity over the 21st century

PubMed Central

Emanuel, Kerry A.

2013-01-01

A recently developed technique for simulating large [O(104)] numbers of tropical cyclones in climate states described by global gridded data is applied to simulations of historical and future climate states simulated by six Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) global climate models. Tropical cyclones downscaled from the climate of the period 1950–2005 are compared with those of the 21st century in simulations that stipulate that the radiative forcing from greenhouse gases increases by over preindustrial values. In contrast to storms that appear explicitly in most global models, the frequency of downscaled tropical cyclones increases during the 21st century in most locations. The intensity of such storms, as measured by their maximum wind speeds, also increases, in agreement with previous results. Increases in tropical cyclone activity are most prominent in the western North Pacific, but are evident in other regions except for the southwestern Pacific. The increased frequency of events is consistent with increases in a genesis potential index based on monthly mean global model output. These results are compared and contrasted with other inferences concerning the effect of global warming on tropical cyclones. PMID:23836646

Ozone, Climate, and Global Atmospheric Change.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Levine, Joel S.

1992-01-01

Presents an overview of global atmospheric problems relating to ozone depletion and global warming. Provides background information on the composition of the earth's atmosphere and origin of atmospheric ozone. Describes causes, effects, and evidence of ozone depletion and the greenhouse effect. A vignette provides a summary of a 1991 assessment of…

Analyzing Regional Climate Change in Africa in a 1.5, 2, and 3°C Global Warming World

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weber, T.; Haensler, A.; Rechid, D.; Pfeifer, S.; Eggert, B.; Jacob, D.

2018-04-01

At the 21st session of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Conference of the Parties (COP21) in Paris, an agreement to strengthen the effort to limit the global temperature increase well below 2°C was decided. However, even if global warming is limited, some regions might still be substantially affected by climate change, especially for continents like Africa where the socio-economic conditions are strongly linked to the climatic conditions. In the paper we will discuss the analysis of indices assigned to the sectors health, agriculture, and infrastructure in a 1.5, 2, and 3°C global warming world for the African continent. For this analysis an ensemble of 10 different general circulation model-regional climate model simulations conducted in the framework of the COordinated Downscaling EXperiment for Africa was investigated. The results show that the African continent, in particular the regions between 15°S and 15°N, has to expect an increase in hot nights and longer and more frequent heat waves even if the global temperature will be kept below 2°C. These effects intensify if the global mean temperature will exceed the 2°C threshold. Moreover, the daily rainfall intensity is expected to increase toward higher global warming scenarios and will affect especially the African Sub-Saharan coastal regions.

Aerosol Retrievals Using Channel 1 and 2 AVHRR Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mishchenko, Michael I.; Geogdzhayev, Igor V.; Cairns, Brian; Rossow, William B.

1999-01-01

The effect of tropospheric aerosols on global climate via the direct and indirect radiative forcings is one of the largest remaining uncertainties in climate change studies. Current assessments of the direct aerosol radiative effect mainly focus on sulfate aerosols. It has become clear, however, that other aerosol types like soil dust and smoke from biomass burning are also likely to be important climate forcing factors. The magnitude and even the sign of the climate forcing caused by these aerosol types is still unknown. General circulation models (GCMs) can be used to estimate the climatic effect of the direct radiative forcing by tropospheric and stratospheric aerosols. Aerosol optical properties are already parameterized in the Goddard Institute for Space Studies GCM. Once the global distribution of aerosol properties (optical thickness, size distribution, and chemical composition) is available, the calculation of the direct aerosol forcing is rather straighfforward. However, estimates of the indirect aerosol effect require additional knowledge of the physics and chemistry of aerosol-cloud interactions which are still poorly understood. One of the main objectives of the Global Aerosol Climatology Project, established in 1998 as a joint initiative of NASA's Radiation Science Program and GEWEX, is to infer the global distribution of aerosols, their properties, and their seasonal and interannual variations for the full period of available satellite data. This will be accomplished primarily through a systematic application of multichannel aerosol retrieval algorithms to existing satellite data and advanced 3-dimensional aerosol chemistry/transport models. In this paper we outline the methodology of analyzing channel 1 and 2 AVHRR radiance data over the oceans and describe preliminary retrieval results.

Multi-Decadal Variation of Aerosols: Sources, Transport, and Climate Effects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chin, Mian; Diehl, Thomas; Bian, Huisheng; Streets, David

2008-01-01

We present a global model study of multi-decadal changes of atmospheric aerosols and their climate effects using a global chemistry transport model along with the near-term to longterm data records. We focus on a 27-year time period of satellite era from 1980 to 2006, during which a suite of aerosol data from satellite observations, ground-based measurements, and intensive field experiments have become available. We will use the Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GOCART) model, which involves a time-varying, comprehensive global emission dataset that we put together in our previous investigations and will be improved/extended in this project. This global emission dataset includes emissions of aerosols and their precursors from fuel combustion, biomass burning, volcanic eruptions, and other sources from 1980 to the present. Using the model and satellite data, we will analyze (1) the long-term global and regional aerosol trends and their relationship to the changes of aerosol and precursor emissions from anthropogenic and natural sources, (2) the intercontinental source-receptor relationships controlled by emission, transport pathway, and climate variability.

An imperative need for global change research in tropical forests.

PubMed

Zhou, Xuhui; Fu, Yuling; Zhou, Lingyan; Li, Bo; Luo, Yiqi

2013-09-01

Tropical forests play a crucial role in regulating regional and global climate dynamics, and model projections suggest that rapid climate change may result in forest dieback or savannization. However, these predictions are largely based on results from leaf-level studies. How tropical forests respond and feedback to climate change is largely unknown at the ecosystem level. Several complementary approaches have been used to evaluate the effects of climate change on tropical forests, but the results are conflicting, largely due to confounding effects of multiple factors. Although altered precipitation and nitrogen deposition experiments have been conducted in tropical forests, large-scale warming and elevated carbon dioxide (CO2) manipulations are completely lacking, leaving many hypotheses and model predictions untested. Ecosystem-scale experiments to manipulate temperature and CO2 concentration individually or in combination are thus urgently needed to examine their main and interactive effects on tropical forests. Such experiments will provide indispensable data and help gain essential knowledge on biogeochemical, hydrological and biophysical responses and feedbacks of tropical forests to climate change. These datasets can also inform regional and global models for predicting future states of tropical forests and climate systems. The success of such large-scale experiments in natural tropical forests will require an international framework to coordinate collaboration so as to meet the challenges in cost, technological infrastructure and scientific endeavor.

Human and climate impact on global riverine water and sediment fluxes - a distributed analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cohen, S.; Kettner, A.; Syvitski, J. P.

2013-05-01

Understanding riverine water and sediment dynamics is an important undertaking for both socially-relevant issues such as agriculture, water security and infrastructure management and for scientific analysis of climate, landscapes, river ecology, oceanography and other disciplines. Providing good quantitative and predictive tools in therefore timely particularly in light of predicted climate and landuse changes. The intensity and dynamics between man-made and climatic factors vary widely across the globe and are therefore hard to predict. Using sophisticated numerical models is therefore warranted. Here we use a distributed global riverine sediment and water discharge model (WBMsed) to simulate human and climate effect on our planet's large rivers.

Effectiveness of carbon dioxide removal in lowering atmospheric CO2 and reversing global warming in the context of 1.5 degrees

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zickfeld, K.; Azevedo, D.

2017-12-01

The majority of emissions scenarios that limit warming to 2°C, and nearly all emission scenarios that do not exceed 1.5°C warming by the year 2100 require artificial removal of CO2 from the atmosphere. Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies in these scenarios are required to offset emissions from sectors that are difficult or costly to decarbonize and to generate global `net negative' emissions, allowing to compensate for earlier emissions and to meet long-term climate stabilization targets after overshoot. Only a few studies have explored the Earth system response to CDR and large uncertainties exist regarding the effect of CDR on the carbon cycle and its effectiveness in reversing climate impacts after overshoot. Here we explore the effectiveness of CDR in lowering atmospheric CO2 ("carbon cycle effectiveness") and cool global climate ("cooling effectiveness"). We force the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model, a model of intermediate complexity, with a set of negative CO2 emissions pulses of different magnitude and applied from different background atmospheric CO2 concentrations. We find the carbon cycle effectiveness of CDR - defined as the change in atmospheric CO2 per unit CO2 removed - decreases with the amount of CO2 removed from the atmosphere and increases at higher background CO2 concentrations from which CDR is applied due to nonlinear responses of carbon sinks to CO2 and climate. The cooling effectiveness - defined as the change in global mean surface air temperature per unit CO2 removed - on the other hand, is largely insensitive to the amount of CO2 removed, but decreases if CDR is applied at higher atmospheric CO2 concentrations, due to the logarithmic relationship between atmospheric CO2 and radiative forcing. Based on our results we conclude that CDR is more effective in restoring a lower atmospheric CO2 concentration and reversing impacts directly linked to CO2 at lower levels of overshoot. CDR's effectiveness in restoring a cooler climate, on the other hand, is largely insensitive to the level of overshoot.

Evaluating the effects of climate change on US agricultural systems: sensitivity to regional impact and trade expansion scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baker, Justin S.; Havlík, Petr; Beach, Robert; Leclère, David; Schmid, Erwin; Valin, Hugo; Cole, Jefferson; Creason, Jared; Ohrel, Sara; McFarland, James

2018-06-01

Agriculture is one of the sectors that is expected to be most significantly impacted by climate change. There has been considerable interest in assessing these impacts and many recent studies investigating agricultural impacts for individual countries and regions using an array of models. However, the great majority of existing studies explore impacts on a country or region of interest without explicitly accounting for impacts on the rest of the world. This approach can bias the results of impact assessments for agriculture given the importance of global trade in this sector. Due to potential impacts on relative competitiveness, international trade, global supply, and prices, the net impacts of climate change on the agricultural sector in each region depend not only on productivity impacts within that region, but on how climate change impacts agricultural productivity throughout the world. In this study, we apply a global model of agriculture and forestry to evaluate climate change impacts on US agriculture with and without accounting for climate change impacts in the rest of the world. In addition, we examine scenarios where trade is expanded to explore the implications for regional allocation of production, trade volumes, and prices. To our knowledge, this is one of the only attempts to explicitly quantify the relative importance of accounting for global climate change when conducting regional assessments of climate change impacts. The results of our analyses reveal substantial differences in estimated impacts on the US agricultural sector when accounting for global impacts vs. US-only impacts, particularly for commodities where the United States has a smaller share of global production. In addition, we find that freer trade can play an important role in helping to buffer regional productivity shocks.

Climate-induced change of environmentally defined floristic domains: A conservation based vulnerability framework

Treesearch

Debbie Jewitt; Barend F.N. Erasmus; Peter S. Goodman; Timothy G. O' Connor; William W. Hargrove; Damian M. Maddalena; Ed. T.F. Witkowski

2015-01-01

Global climate change is having marked influences on species distributions, phenology and ecosystem composition and raises questions as to the effectiveness of current conservation strategies. Conservation planning has only recently begun to adequately account for dynamic threats such as climate change. We propose a method to incorporate climate-dynamic environmental...

Climate change impact on microclimate of work environment related to occupational health and productivity.

PubMed

Marchetti, Enrico; Capone, Pasquale; Freda, Daniela

2016-01-01

Climate change is a global emergency that influences human health and occupational safety. Global warming characterized by an increase in temperature of the ambience and humidity affects human health directly impairing body thermoregulation with serious consequences: dehydration, fatigue, heat stroke and even death. Several studies have demonstrated negative effects of climate change on working populations in a wide variety of workplaces with particular regard to outdoor and uncooled indoor workplaces. Most vulnerable workers are outdoor workers in tropical and subtropical countries usually involved in heavy labor during hot seasons. Many of the consequences therefore, regarding working people are possible, even without health symptoms by reducing work productivity. The scope of this review is to investigate effects of climate change on workers both in relation to health and work productivity. This study has been realized by analyzing recent international literature. In order to reduce negative effects of climate change on working populations it is essential to implement preventive measures with a multidisciplinary strategy limiting health risks and improving work productivity.

Effects of climate change on croplands

EPA Science Inventory

This talk will describe likely changes in temperature and precipitation expected in the northwestern US with global climate change, and their potential impacts on Oregon croplands. The focus will be on the effects of temperature and carbon dioxide on crop productivity, weed cont...

Forest health in a changing world: Effects of globalization and climate change on forest insect and pathogen impacts

Treesearch

T. D. Ramsfield; Barbara Bentz; M. Faccoli; H. Jactel; E. G. Brockerhoff

2016-01-01

Forests and trees throughout the world are increasingly affected by factors related to global change. Expanding international trade has facilitated invasions of numerous insects and pathogens into new regions. Many of these invasions have caused substantial forest damage, economic impacts and losses of ecosystem goods and services provided by trees. Climate...

Trends in global wildfire potential in a changing climate

Treesearch

Y. Liu; J.A. Stanturf; S.L. Goodrick

2009-01-01

The trend in global wildfire potential under the climate change due to the greenhouse effect is investigated. Fire potential is measured by the Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI), which is calculated using the observed maximum temperature and precipitation and projected changes at the end of this century (2070–2100) by general circulation models (GCMs) for present and...

ASSESSMENT OF THE IMPACTS OF GLOBAL CHANGE ON REGIONAL U.S. AIR QUALITY: A SYNTHESIS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON GROUND-LEVEL OZONE (AN INTERIM REPORT OF THE U.S. EPA GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH PROGRAM)

EPA Science Inventory

The Air Quality Assessment Final Report is intended for managers and scientists working on air quality to provide them with information on the potential effects of climate change on regional air quality in the United States.

Reports to the Nation on our changing planet. Winter 1991 No. 1: The climate system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1991-01-01

This pamphlet is a semi-annual report for the period April 1992 through September 1992 dealing with the study of climatology. This introductory pamphlet treats in the simplest of terms such topics as climate change, the greenhouse effect, the global heat engine, hydrology, oceanography, computers and climatology, ice ages, and global warming. Informative charts are included.

Using multiple climate projections for assessing hydrological response to climate change in the Thukela River Basin, South Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Graham, L. Phil; Andersson, Lotta; Horan, Mark; Kunz, Richard; Lumsden, Trevor; Schulze, Roland; Warburton, Michele; Wilk, Julie; Yang, Wei

This study used climate change projections from different regional approaches to assess hydrological effects on the Thukela River Basin in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Projecting impacts of future climate change onto hydrological systems can be undertaken in different ways and a variety of effects can be expected. Although simulation results from global climate models (GCMs) are typically used to project future climate, different outcomes from these projections may be obtained depending on the GCMs themselves and how they are applied, including different ways of downscaling from global to regional scales. Projections of climate change from different downscaling methods, different global climate models and different future emissions scenarios were used as input to simulations in a hydrological model to assess climate change impacts on hydrology. A total of 10 hydrological change simulations were made, resulting in a matrix of hydrological response results. This matrix included results from dynamically downscaled climate change projections from the same regional climate model (RCM) using an ensemble of three GCMs and three global emissions scenarios, and from statistically downscaled projections using results from five GCMs with the same emissions scenario. Although the matrix of results does not provide complete and consistent coverage of potential uncertainties from the different methods, some robust results were identified. In some regards, the results were in agreement and consistent for the different simulations. For others, particularly rainfall, the simulations showed divergence. For example, all of the statistically downscaled simulations showed an annual increase in precipitation and corresponding increase in river runoff, while the RCM downscaled simulations showed both increases and decreases in runoff. According to the two projections that best represent runoff for the observed climate, increased runoff would generally be expected for this basin in the future. Dealing with such variability in results is not atypical for assessing climate change impacts in Africa and practitioners are faced with how to interpret them. This work highlights the need for additional, well-coordinated regional climate downscaling for the region to further define the range of uncertainties involved.

The historical impact of climate extremes on global agricultural production and trade

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Troy, T. J.; Pal, I.; Block, P. J.; Lall, U.

2011-12-01

How does climate variability at interannual time scales impact the volume and prices of key agricultural products on the global market? Do concurrent climate shocks in major breadbaskets of the world have serious impacts on global stocks and food prices? To what extent may irrigated agriculture or food storage buffer such impacts? Is there evidence of such impacts and/or buffering in the publicly available historical data? This talk explores these questions through empirical data analysis. During the past two years, we have seen drought in China, Europe, and Russia and floods in the United States and Australia. In this study, we examine the relationship between climate and crop yields, focusing on three main grain staples: wheat, rice, and maize. To do this, we use global production, trade, and stock data from the Food and Agricultural Organization and the United States Department of Agriculture for agriculture information and gridded observations of temperature and precipitation from 1960 through 2008. We focus on the impact of climate shocks (extreme temperatures, drought, and floods) on the agricultural production for the top exporting countries and quantify how these shocks propagate through the country's exports, imports, and grain stocks in order to understand the effect climate variability and extremes have on global food security. The ability to forecast these climate shocks at seasonal to longer lead times would significantly improve our ability to cope with perturbations in the global food supply, and we evaluate the ability of current models to produce skillful seasonal forecasts over the major grain producing regions.

Sources of uncertainty in hydrological climate impact assessment: a cross-scale study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hattermann, F. F.; Vetter, T.; Breuer, L.; Su, Buda; Daggupati, P.; Donnelly, C.; Fekete, B.; Flörke, F.; Gosling, S. N.; Hoffmann, P.; Liersch, S.; Masaki, Y.; Motovilov, Y.; Müller, C.; Samaniego, L.; Stacke, T.; Wada, Y.; Yang, T.; Krysnaova, V.

2018-01-01

Climate change impacts on water availability and hydrological extremes are major concerns as regards the Sustainable Development Goals. Impacts on hydrology are normally investigated as part of a modelling chain, in which climate projections from multiple climate models are used as inputs to multiple impact models, under different greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, which result in different amounts of global temperature rise. While the goal is generally to investigate the relevance of changes in climate for the water cycle, water resources or hydrological extremes, it is often the case that variations in other components of the model chain obscure the effect of climate scenario variation. This is particularly important when assessing the impacts of relatively lower magnitudes of global warming, such as those associated with the aspirational goals of the Paris Agreement. In our study, we use ANOVA (analyses of variance) to allocate and quantify the main sources of uncertainty in the hydrological impact modelling chain. In turn we determine the statistical significance of different sources of uncertainty. We achieve this by using a set of five climate models and up to 13 hydrological models, for nine large scale river basins across the globe, under four emissions scenarios. The impact variable we consider in our analysis is daily river discharge. We analyze overall water availability and flow regime, including seasonality, high flows and low flows. Scaling effects are investigated by separately looking at discharge generated by global and regional hydrological models respectively. Finally, we compare our results with other recently published studies. We find that small differences in global temperature rise associated with some emissions scenarios have mostly significant impacts on river discharge—however, climate model related uncertainty is so large that it obscures the sensitivity of the hydrological system.

The climatic effects of nuclear war

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Turco, R. P.; Toon, O. B.; Ackerman, T. P.; Pollack, J. B.; Sagan, C.

1984-01-01

The effects of various US-USSR nuclear-exchange scenarios on global climate are investigated by means of computer simulations, summarizing the results of Turco et al. (1983) and follow-up studies using 3D global-circulation models. A nuclear-scenario model is used to determine the amounts of dust, smoke, radioactivity, and pyrotoxins generated by a particular type of nuclear exchange (such as a general 5,000-Mt exchange, a 1,000-Mt limited exchange, a 5,000-Mt hard-target counterforce attack, and a 100-Mt attack on cities only): a particle-microphysics model predicts the evolution of the dust and smoke particles; and a radiative-convective climate model estimates the effects of the dust and smoke clouds on the global radiation budget. The findings are presented in graphs, diagrams, and a table. Thick clouds blocking most sunlight over the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes for weeks or months and producing ground-temperature reductions of 20-40 C, disruption of global circulation patterns, and rapid spread of clouds to the Southern Hemisphere are among the 'nuclear-winter' effects predicted for the 5,000-Mt baseline case. The catastrophic consequences for plant, animal, and human populations are considered, and the revision of superpower nuclear strategies is urged.

Quantifying the Global Fresh Water Budget: Capabilities from Current and Future Satellite Sensors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hildebrand, Peter; Zaitchik, Benjamin

2007-01-01

The global water cycle is complex and its components are difficult to measure, particularly at the global scales and with the precision needed for assessing climate impacts. Recent advances in satellite observational capabilities, however, are greatly improving our knowledge of the key terms in the fresh water flux budget. Many components of the of the global water budget, e.g. precipitation, atmospheric moisture profiles, soil moisture, snow cover, sea ice are now routinely measured globally using instruments on satellites such as TRMM, AQUA, TERRA, GRACE, and ICESat, as well as on operational satellites. New techniques, many using data assimilation approaches, are providing pathways toward measuring snow water equivalent, evapotranspiration, ground water, ice mass, as well as improving the measurement quality for other components of the global water budget. This paper evaluates these current and developing satellite capabilities to observe the global fresh water budget, then looks forward to evaluate the potential for improvements that may result from future space missions as detailed by the US Decadal Survey, and operational plans. Based on these analyses, and on the goal of improved knowledge of the global fresh water budget under the effects of climate change, we suggest some priorities for the future, based on new approaches that may provide the improved measurements and the analyses needed to understand and observe the potential speed-up of the global water cycle under the effects of climate change.

Book Review: Regional Hydrological Response to Climate Change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koster, Randal

1998-01-01

The book being reviewed, Regional Hydrological Response to Climate Change, addresses the effects of global climate change, particularly global warming induced by greenhouse gas emissions, on hydrological budgets at the regional scale. As noted in its preface, the book consists of peer-reviewed papers delivered at scientific meetings held by the International Geographical Union Working Group on Regional Hydrological Response to Climate Change and Global Warming, supplemented with some additional chapters that round out coverage of the topic. The editors hope that this book will serve as "not only a record of current achievements, but also a stimulus to further hydrological research as the detail and spatial resolution of Global Climate Models improves". The reviewer found the background material on regional climatology to be valuable and the methodologies presented to be of interest. The value of the book is significantly diminished, however by the dated nature of some of the material and by large uncertainties in the predictions of regional precipitation change. The book would have been improved by a much more extensive documentation of the uncertainty associated with each step of the prediction process.

Human Impacts and Climate Change Influence Nestedness and Modularity in Food-Web and Mutualistic Networks.

PubMed

Takemoto, Kazuhiro; Kajihara, Kosuke

2016-01-01

Theoretical studies have indicated that nestedness and modularity-non-random structural patterns of ecological networks-influence the stability of ecosystems against perturbations; as such, climate change and human activity, as well as other sources of environmental perturbations, affect the nestedness and modularity of ecological networks. However, the effects of climate change and human activities on ecological networks are poorly understood. Here, we used a spatial analysis approach to examine the effects of climate change and human activities on the structural patterns of food webs and mutualistic networks, and found that ecological network structure is globally affected by climate change and human impacts, in addition to current climate. In pollination networks, for instance, nestedness increased and modularity decreased in response to increased human impacts. Modularity in seed-dispersal networks decreased with temperature change (i.e., warming), whereas food web nestedness increased and modularity declined in response to global warming. Although our findings are preliminary owing to data-analysis limitations, they enhance our understanding of the effects of environmental change on ecological communities.

Climate adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kinzig, Ann P.

2015-03-01

This paper is intended as a brief introduction to climate adaptation in a conference devoted otherwise to the physics of sustainable energy. Whereas mitigation involves measures to reduce the probability of a potential event, such as climate change, adaptation refers to actions that lessen the impact of climate change. Mitigation and adaptation differ in other ways as well. Adaptation does not necessarily have to be implemented immediately to be effective; it only needs to be in place before the threat arrives. Also, adaptation does not necessarily require global, coordinated action; many effective adaptation actions can be local. Some urban communities, because of land-use change and the urban heat-island effect, currently face changes similar to some expected under climate change, such as changes in water availability, heat-related morbidity, or changes in disease patterns. Concern over those impacts might motivate the implementation of measures that would also help in climate adaptation, despite skepticism among some policy makers about anthropogenic global warming. Studies of ancient civilizations in the southwestern US lends some insight into factors that may or may not be important to successful adaptation.

How shorter black carbon lifetime alters its climate effect.

PubMed

Hodnebrog, Øivind; Myhre, Gunnar; Samset, Bjørn H

2014-09-25

Black carbon (BC), unlike most aerosol types, absorbs solar radiation. However, the quantification of its climate impact is uncertain and presently under debate. Recently, attention has been drawn both to a likely underestimation of global BC emissions in climate models, and an overestimation of BC at high altitudes. Here we show that doubling present day BC emissions in a model simulation, while reducing BC lifetime based on observational evidence, leaves the direct aerosol effect of BC virtually unchanged. Increased emissions, together with increased wet removal that reduces the lifetime, yields modelled BC vertical profiles that are in strongly improved agreement with recent aircraft observations. Furthermore, we explore the consequences of an altered BC profile in a global circulation model, and show that both the vertical profile of BC and rapid climate adjustments need to be taken into account in order to assess the total climate impact of BC.

Effects of climate change, CO2 and O3 on wheat productivity in Eastern China, singly and in combination

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tao, Fulu; Feng, Zhaozhong; Tang, Haoye; Chen, Yi; Kobayashi, Kazuhiko

2017-03-01

Air pollution and climate change are increasing threats to agricultural production and food security. Extensive studies have focused on the effect of climate change, but the interactive effects of multiple global change factors are poorly understood. Here, we incorporate the interactions between climate change, carbon dioxide (CO2) and ozone (O3) into an eco-physiological mechanistic model based on three years of O3 Free-Air Concentration Elevation (O3-FACE) experiments. We then investigate the effects of climate change, elevated CO2 concentration ([CO2]) and rising O3 concentration ([O3]) on wheat growth and productivity in eastern China in 1996-2005 (2000s) and 2016-2025 (2020s) under two climate change scenarios, singly and in combination. We find the interactive effects of climate change, CO2 and O3 on wheat productivity have spatially explicit patterns; the effect of climate change dominates the general pattern, which is however subject to the large uncertainties of climate change scenarios. Wheat productivity is estimated to increase by 2.8-9.0% due to elevated [CO2] however decline by 2.8-11.7% due to rising [O3] in the 2020s, relative to the 2000s. The combined effects of CO2 and O3 are less than that of O3 only, on average by 4.6-5.2%, however with O3 damage outweighing CO2 benefit in most of the region. This study demonstrates a more biologically meaningful and appropriate approach for assessing the interactive effects of climate change, CO2 and O3 on crop growth and productivity. Our findings promote the understanding on the interactive effects of multiple global change factors across contrasting climate conditions, cast doubt on the potential of CO2 fertilization effect in offsetting possible negative effect of climate change on crop productivity as suggested by many previous studies.

Global climate changes as forecast by Goddard Institute for Space Studies three-dimensional model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hansen, J.; Fung, I.; Lacis, A.; Rind, D.; Lebedeff, S.; Ruedy, R.; Russell, G.

1988-01-01

The global climate effects of time-dependent atmospheric trace gas and aerosol variations are simulated by NASA-Goddard's three-dimensional climate model II, which possesses 8 x 10-deg horizontal resolution, for the cases of a 100-year control run and three different atmospheric composition scenarios in which trace gas growth is respectively a continuation of current exponential trends, a reduced linear growth, and a rapid curtailment of emissions due to which net climate forcing no longer increases after the year 2000. The experiments begin in 1958, run to the present, and encompass measured or estimated changes in CO2, CH4, N2O, chlorofluorocarbons, and stratospheric aerosols. It is shown that the greenhouse warming effect may be clearly identifiable in the 1990s.

Soil organic carbon stock in grasslands: Effects of inorganic fertilizers, liming and grazing in different climate settings.

PubMed

Eze, Samuel; Palmer, Sheila M; Chapman, Pippa J

2018-06-12

Grasslands store about 34% of the global terrestrial carbon (C) and are vital for the provision of various ecosystem services such as forage and climate regulation. About 89% of this grassland C is stored in the soil and is affected by management activities but the effects of these management activities on C storage under different climate settings are not known. In this study, we synthesized the effects of fertilizer (nitrogen and phosphorus) application, liming and grazing regime on the stock of SOC in global grasslands, under different site specific climatic settings using a meta-analysis of 341 datasets. We found an overall significant reduction (-8.5%) in the stock of SOC in global managed grasslands, mainly attributable to grazing (-15.0%), and only partially attenuated by fertilizer addition (+6.7%) and liming (+5.8%), indicating that management to improve biomass production does not contribute sufficient organic matter to replace that lost by direct removal by animals. Management activities had the greatest effect in the tropics (-22.4%) due primarily to heavy grazing, and the least effect in the temperate zone (-4.5%). The negative management effect reduced significantly with increasing mean annual temperature and mean annual precipitation in the temperate zone, suggesting that temperate grassland soils are potential C sinks in the face of climate change. For a sustainable management of grasslands that will provide adequate forage for livestock and mitigate climate change through C sequestration, we recommend that future tropical grassland management policies should focus on reducing the intensity of grazing. Also, to verify our findings for temperate grasslands and to better inform land management policy, future research should focus on the impacts of the projected climate change on net greenhouse gas exchange and potential climate feedbacks. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evaluating the effects of terrestrial ecosystems, climate and carbon dioxide on weathering over geological time: a global-scale process-based approach.

PubMed

Taylor, Lyla L; Banwart, Steve A; Valdes, Paul J; Leake, Jonathan R; Beerling, David J

2012-02-19

Global weathering of calcium and magnesium silicate rocks provides the long-term sink for atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO(2)) on a timescale of millions of years by causing precipitation of calcium carbonates on the seafloor. Catchment-scale field studies consistently indicate that vegetation increases silicate rock weathering, but incorporating the effects of trees and fungal symbionts into geochemical carbon cycle models has relied upon simple empirical scaling functions. Here, we describe the development and application of a process-based approach to deriving quantitative estimates of weathering by plant roots, associated symbiotic mycorrhizal fungi and climate. Our approach accounts for the influence of terrestrial primary productivity via nutrient uptake on soil chemistry and mineral weathering, driven by simulations using a dynamic global vegetation model coupled to an ocean-atmosphere general circulation model of the Earth's climate. The strategy is successfully validated against observations of weathering in watersheds around the world, indicating that it may have some utility when extrapolated into the past. When applied to a suite of six global simulations from 215 to 50 Ma, we find significantly larger effects over the past 220 Myr relative to the present day. Vegetation and mycorrhizal fungi enhanced climate-driven weathering by a factor of up to 2. Overall, we demonstrate a more realistic process-based treatment of plant fungal-geosphere interactions at the global scale, which constitutes a first step towards developing 'next-generation' geochemical models.

Evaluating the effects of terrestrial ecosystems, climate and carbon dioxide on weathering over geological time: a global-scale process-based approach

PubMed Central

Taylor, Lyla L.; Banwart, Steve A.; Valdes, Paul J.; Leake, Jonathan R.; Beerling, David J.

2012-01-01

Global weathering of calcium and magnesium silicate rocks provides the long-term sink for atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) on a timescale of millions of years by causing precipitation of calcium carbonates on the seafloor. Catchment-scale field studies consistently indicate that vegetation increases silicate rock weathering, but incorporating the effects of trees and fungal symbionts into geochemical carbon cycle models has relied upon simple empirical scaling functions. Here, we describe the development and application of a process-based approach to deriving quantitative estimates of weathering by plant roots, associated symbiotic mycorrhizal fungi and climate. Our approach accounts for the influence of terrestrial primary productivity via nutrient uptake on soil chemistry and mineral weathering, driven by simulations using a dynamic global vegetation model coupled to an ocean–atmosphere general circulation model of the Earth's climate. The strategy is successfully validated against observations of weathering in watersheds around the world, indicating that it may have some utility when extrapolated into the past. When applied to a suite of six global simulations from 215 to 50 Ma, we find significantly larger effects over the past 220 Myr relative to the present day. Vegetation and mycorrhizal fungi enhanced climate-driven weathering by a factor of up to 2. Overall, we demonstrate a more realistic process-based treatment of plant fungal–geosphere interactions at the global scale, which constitutes a first step towards developing ‘next-generation’ geochemical models. PMID:22232768

Satellite Observations of the Effect of Natural and Anthropogenic Aerosols on Clouds

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kaufman, Yoram J.

2006-01-01

Our knowledge of atmospheric aerosols (smoke, pollution, dust or sea salt particles, small enough to be suspended in the air), their evolution, composition, variability in space and time and interaction with clouds and precipitation is still lacking despite decades of research. Understanding the global aerosol system is critical to quantifying anthropogenic climate change, to determine climate sensitivity from observations and to understand the hydrological cycle. While a single instrument was used to demonstrate 50 years ago that the global CO2 levels are rising, posing threat of global warming, we need an array of satellites and field measurements coupled with chemical transport models to understand the global aerosol system. This complexity of the aerosol problem results from their short lifetime (1 week) and variable chemical composition. A new generation of satellites provides exciting opportunities to measure the global distribution of aerosols, distinguishing natural from anthropogenic aerosol and measuring their interaction with clouds and climate.

Multimodel assessment of water scarcity under climate change.

PubMed

Schewe, Jacob; Heinke, Jens; Gerten, Dieter; Haddeland, Ingjerd; Arnell, Nigel W; Clark, Douglas B; Dankers, Rutger; Eisner, Stephanie; Fekete, Balázs M; Colón-González, Felipe J; Gosling, Simon N; Kim, Hyungjun; Liu, Xingcai; Masaki, Yoshimitsu; Portmann, Felix T; Satoh, Yusuke; Stacke, Tobias; Tang, Qiuhong; Wada, Yoshihide; Wisser, Dominik; Albrecht, Torsten; Frieler, Katja; Piontek, Franziska; Warszawski, Lila; Kabat, Pavel

2014-03-04

Water scarcity severely impairs food security and economic prosperity in many countries today. Expected future population changes will, in many countries as well as globally, increase the pressure on available water resources. On the supply side, renewable water resources will be affected by projected changes in precipitation patterns, temperature, and other climate variables. Here we use a large ensemble of global hydrological models (GHMs) forced by five global climate models and the latest greenhouse-gas concentration scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways) to synthesize the current knowledge about climate change impacts on water resources. We show that climate change is likely to exacerbate regional and global water scarcity considerably. In particular, the ensemble average projects that a global warming of 2 °C above present (approximately 2.7 °C above preindustrial) will confront an additional approximate 15% of the global population with a severe decrease in water resources and will increase the number of people living under absolute water scarcity (<500 m(3) per capita per year) by another 40% (according to some models, more than 100%) compared with the effect of population growth alone. For some indicators of moderate impacts, the steepest increase is seen between the present day and 2 °C, whereas indicators of very severe impacts increase unabated beyond 2 °C. At the same time, the study highlights large uncertainties associated with these estimates, with both global climate models and GHMs contributing to the spread. GHM uncertainty is particularly dominant in many regions affected by declining water resources, suggesting a high potential for improved water resource projections through hydrological model development.

Multimodel assessment of water scarcity under climate change

PubMed Central

Schewe, Jacob; Heinke, Jens; Gerten, Dieter; Haddeland, Ingjerd; Arnell, Nigel W.; Clark, Douglas B.; Dankers, Rutger; Eisner, Stephanie; Fekete, Balázs M.; Colón-González, Felipe J.; Gosling, Simon N.; Kim, Hyungjun; Liu, Xingcai; Masaki, Yoshimitsu; Portmann, Felix T.; Satoh, Yusuke; Stacke, Tobias; Tang, Qiuhong; Wada, Yoshihide; Wisser, Dominik; Albrecht, Torsten; Frieler, Katja; Piontek, Franziska; Warszawski, Lila; Kabat, Pavel

2014-01-01

Water scarcity severely impairs food security and economic prosperity in many countries today. Expected future population changes will, in many countries as well as globally, increase the pressure on available water resources. On the supply side, renewable water resources will be affected by projected changes in precipitation patterns, temperature, and other climate variables. Here we use a large ensemble of global hydrological models (GHMs) forced by five global climate models and the latest greenhouse-gas concentration scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways) to synthesize the current knowledge about climate change impacts on water resources. We show that climate change is likely to exacerbate regional and global water scarcity considerably. In particular, the ensemble average projects that a global warming of 2 °C above present (approximately 2.7 °C above preindustrial) will confront an additional approximate 15% of the global population with a severe decrease in water resources and will increase the number of people living under absolute water scarcity (<500 m3 per capita per year) by another 40% (according to some models, more than 100%) compared with the effect of population growth alone. For some indicators of moderate impacts, the steepest increase is seen between the present day and 2 °C, whereas indicators of very severe impacts increase unabated beyond 2 °C. At the same time, the study highlights large uncertainties associated with these estimates, with both global climate models and GHMs contributing to the spread. GHM uncertainty is particularly dominant in many regions affected by declining water resources, suggesting a high potential for improved water resource projections through hydrological model development. PMID:24344289

Built Expansion and Global Climate Change Drive Projected Urban Heat: Relative Magnitudes, Interactions, and Mitigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krayenhoff, E. S.; Georgescu, M.; Moustaoui, M.

2016-12-01

Surface climates are projected to warm due to global climate change over the course of the 21st century, and demographic projections suggest urban areas in the United States will continue to expand and develop, with associated local climate outcomes. Interactions between these two drivers of urban heat have not been robustly quantified to date. Here, simulations with the Weather Research and Forecasting model (coupled to a Single-Layer Urban Canopy Model) are performed at 20 km resolution over the continental U.S. for two 10-year periods: contemporary (2000-2009) and end-of-century (2090-2099). Present and end of century urban land use are derived from the Environmental Protection Agency's Integrated Climate and Land-Use Scenarios. Modelled effects on urban climates are evaluated regionally. Sensitivity to climate projection (Community Climate System Model 4.0, RCP 4.5 vs. RCP 8.5) and associated urban development scenarios are assessed. Effects on near-surface urban air temperature of RCP8.5 climate change are greater than those attributable to the corresponding urban development in many regions. Interaction effects vary by region, and while of lesser magnitude, are not negligible. Moreover, urban development and its interactions with RCP8.5 climate change modify the distribution of convective precipitation over the eastern US. Interaction effects result from the different meteorological effects of urban areas under current and future climate. Finally, the potential for design implementations such as green roofs and high albedo roofs to offset the projected warming is considered. Impacts of these implementations on precipitation are also assessed.

Interactive effects of multiple climate change factors on ammonia oxidizers and denitrifiers in a temperate steppe.

PubMed

Zhang, Cui-Jing; Shen, Ju-Pei; Sun, Yi-Fei; Wang, Jun-Tao; Zhang, Li-Mei; Yang, Zhong-Ling; Han, Hong-Yan; Wan, Shi-Qiang; He, Ji-Zheng

2017-04-01

Global climate change could have profound effects on belowground microbial communities and subsequently affect soil biogeochemical processes. The interactive effects of multiple co-occurring climate change factors on microbially mediated processes are not well understood. A four-factorial field experiment with elevated CO2, watering, nitrogen (N) addition and night warming was conducted in a temperate steppe of northern China. Real-time polymerase chain reaction and terminal-restriction fragment length polymorphism, combined with clone library techniques, were applied to examine the effects of those climate change factors on N-related microbial abundance and community composition. Only the abundance of ammonia-oxidizing bacteria significantly increased by nitrogen addition and decreased by watering. The interactions of watering × warming on the bacterial amoA community and warming × nitrogen addition on the nosZ community were found. Redundancy analysis indicated that the ammonia-oxidizing archaeal community was affected by total N and total carbon, while the community of bacterial amoA and nosZ were significantly affected by soil pH. According to a structural equation modeling analysis, climate change influenced net primary production indirectly by altering microbial abundance and activities. These results indicated that microbial responses to the combination of chronic global change tend to be smaller than expected from single-factor global change manipulations. © FEMS 2017. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Has anthropogenic land-cover change been a significant climate forcing in the past? - An assessment for the Baltic Sea catchment area based on a literature review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gaillard, Marie-Jose; Kaplan, Jed O.; Kleinen, Thomas; Brigitte Nielsen, Anne; Poska, Anneli; Samuelsson, Patrick; Strandberg, Gustav; Trondman, Anna-Kari

2015-04-01

We reviewed the recent published scientific literature on land cover-climate interactions at the global and regional spatial scales with the aim to assess whether it is convincingly demonstrated that anthropogenic land-cover change (ALCC) has been (over the last centuries and millennia) a significant climate forcing at the global scale, and more specifically at the scale of the Baltic Sea catchment area. The conclusions from this review are as follows: i) anthropogenic land-cover change (ALCC) is one of the few climate forcings for which the net direction of the climate response in the past is still not known. The uncertainty is due to the often counteracting temperature responses to the many biogeophysical effects, and to the biogeochemical vs biogeophysical effects; ii) there is no indication that deforestation in the Baltic Sea area since AD 1850 would have been a major cause of the recent climate warming in the region through a positive biogeochemical feedback; iii) several model studies suggest that boreal reforestation might not be an effective climate warming mitigation tool as it might lead to increased warming through biogeophysical processes; iv) palaeoecological studies indicate a major transformation of the landscape by anthropogenic activities in the southern zone of the study region occurring between 6000 and 3000/2500 calendar years before present (cal. BP) (1) ; v) the only modelling study so far of the biogeophysical effects of past ALCCs on regional climate in Europe suggests that a deforestation of the magnitude of that reconstructed for the past (between 6000 and 200 cal BP) can produce changes in winter and summer temperatures of +/- 1°, the sign of the change depending on the season and the region (2). Thus, if ALCC and their biogeophysical effects did matter in the past, they should matter today and in the future. A still prevailing idea is that planting trees will mitigate climate warming through biogeochemical effects. Therefore, there is still an urgent need to better understand the biogeophysical effects on regional and continental climate of afforestation in the hemiboreal and boreal regions, and their significance in relation to the biogeochemical effects. (1) Trondman, A.-K. et al. (2014) Global Change Biology (2014), doi: 10.1111/gcb.12737 (2) Strandberg, G. et al. (2014) Climate of the Past 10, 661-680.

Climate change 101 : understanding and responding to global climate change

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-01-01

To inform the climate change dialogue, the Pew Center on Global Climate Change and the Pew Center on the States have developed a series of brief reports entitled Climate Change 101: Understanding and Responding to Global Climate Change. These reports...

India: The Impact of Climate Change to 2030 Geopolitical Implications

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-05-01

The National Intelligence Council sponsored workshop entitled Implications of Global Climate Change in India on March 27,2009, brought together a...panel of media experts to consider the probable effects of climate change on media from a social, political, and economic perspective. The panelists...judged the practical effects of climate change on India were uncertain, but they concluded India will most likely be able to manage them out to 2030. 1

Climate policy to defeat the green paradox.

PubMed

Fölster, Stefan; Nyström, Johan

2010-05-01

Carbon dioxide emissions have accelerated since the signing of the Kyoto Protocol. This discouraging development may partly be blamed on accelerating world growth and on lags in policy instruments. However, it also raises serious question concerning whether policies to reduce CO2 emissions are as effective as generally assumed. In recent years, a considerable number of studies have identified various feedback mechanisms of climate policies that often erode, and occasionally reinforce, their effectiveness. These studies generally focus on a few feedback mechanisms at a time, without capturing the entire effect. Partial accounting of policy feedbacks is common in many climate scenarios. The IPCC, for example, only accounts for direct leakage and rebound effects. This article attempts to map the aggregate effects of different types of climate policy feedback mechanisms in a cohesive framework. Controlling feedback effects is essential if the policy measures are to make any difference on a global level. A general conclusion is that aggregate policy feedback mechanisms tend to make current climate policies much less effective than is generally assumed. In fact, various policy measures involve a definite risk of 'backfiring' and actually increasing CO2 emissions. This risk is particularly pronounced once effects of climate policies on the pace of innovation in climate technology are considered. To stand any chance of controlling carbon emissions, it is imperative that feedback mechanisms are integrated into emission scenarios, targets for emission reduction and implementation of climate policy. In many cases, this will reduce the scope for subsidies to renewable energy sources, but increase the scope for other measures such as schemes to return carbon dioxide to the ground and to mitigate emissions of greenhouse gases from wetlands and oceans. A framework that incorporates policy feedback effects necessitates rethinking the design of the national and regional emission targets. This leads us to a new way of formulating emission targets that include feedback effects, the global impact target. Once the full climate policy feedback mechanisms are accounted for, there are probably only three main routes in climate policy that stand a chance of mitigating global warming: (a) returning carbon to the ground, (b) technological leaps in zero-emission energy technology that make it profitable to leave much carbon in the ground even in Annex II countries and (c) international agreements that make it more profitable to leave carbon in the ground or in forests.

Globalization to amplify economic climate losses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Otto, C.; Wenz, L.; Levermann, A.

2015-12-01

Economic welfare under enhanced anthropogenic carbon emissions and associated future warming poses a major challenge for a society with an evolving globally connected economy. Unabated climate change will impact economic output for example through heat-stress-related reductions in productivity. Since meteorologically-induced production reductions can propagate along supply chains, structural changes in the economic network may influence climate-related losses. The role of the economic network evolution for climate impacts has been neither quantified nor qualitatively understood. Here we show that since the beginning of the 21st century the structural change of the global supply network has been such that an increase of spillover losses due to unanticipated climatic events has to be expected. We quantify primary, secondary and higher-order losses from reduced labor productivity under past and present economic and climatic conditions and find that indirect losses are significant and increase with rising temperatures. The connectivity of the economic network has increased in such a way as to foster the propagation of production loss. This supply chain connectivity robustly exhibits the characteristic distribution of self-organized criticality which has been shifted towards higher values since 2001. Losses due to this structural evolution dominated over the effect of comparably weak climatic changes during this decade. Our finding suggests that the current form of globalization may amplify losses due to climatic extremes and thus necessitate structural adaptation that requires more foresight than presently prevalent.

Possible implications of global climate change on global lightning distributions and frequencies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Price, Colin; Rind, David

1994-01-01

The Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) general circulation model (GCM) is used to study the possible implications of past and future climate change on global lightning frequencies. Two climate change experiments were conducted: one for a 2 x CO2 climate (representing a 4.2 degs C global warming) and one for a 2% decrease in the solar constant (representing a 5.9 degs C global cooling). The results suggest at 30% increase in global lightning activity for the warmer climate and a 24% decrease in global lightning activity for the colder climate. This implies an approximate 5-6% change in global lightning frequencies for every 1 degs C global warming/cooling. Both intracloud and cloud-to-ground frequencies are modeled, with cloud-to-ground lightning frequencies showing larger sensitivity to climate change than intracloud frequencies. The magnitude of the modeled lightning changes depends on season, location, and even time of day.

Can we set a global threshold age to define mature forests?

PubMed

Martin, Philip; Jung, Martin; Brearley, Francis Q; Ribbons, Relena R; Lines, Emily R; Jacob, Aerin L

2016-01-01

Globally, mature forests appear to be increasing in biomass density (BD). There is disagreement whether these increases are the result of increases in atmospheric CO2 concentrations or a legacy effect of previous land-use. Recently, it was suggested that a threshold of 450 years should be used to define mature forests and that many forests increasing in BD may be younger than this. However, the study making these suggestions failed to account for the interactions between forest age and climate. Here we revisit the issue to identify: (1) how climate and forest age control global forest BD and (2) whether we can set a threshold age for mature forests. Using data from previously published studies we modelled the impacts of forest age and climate on BD using linear mixed effects models. We examined the potential biases in the dataset by comparing how representative it was of global mature forests in terms of its distribution, the climate space it occupied, and the ages of the forests used. BD increased with forest age, mean annual temperature and annual precipitation. Importantly, the effect of forest age increased with increasing temperature, but the effect of precipitation decreased with increasing temperatures. The dataset was biased towards northern hemisphere forests in relatively dry, cold climates. The dataset was also clearly biased towards forests <250 years of age. Our analysis suggests that there is not a single threshold age for forest maturity. Since climate interacts with forest age to determine BD, a threshold age at which they reach equilibrium can only be determined locally. We caution against using BD as the only determinant of forest maturity since this ignores forest biodiversity and tree size structure which may take longer to recover. Future research should address the utility and cost-effectiveness of different methods for determining whether forests should be classified as mature.

Comparing extraction rates of fossil fuel producers against global climate goals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rekker, Saphira A. C.; O'Brien, Katherine R.; Humphrey, Jacquelyn E.; Pascale, Andrew C.

2018-06-01

Meeting global and national climate goals requires action and cooperation from a multitude of actors1,2. Current methods to define greenhouse gas emission targets for companies fail to acknowledge the unique influence of fossil fuel producers: combustion of reported fossil fuel reserves has the potential to push global warming above 2 °C by 2050, regardless of other efforts to mitigate climate change3. Here, we introduce a method to compare the extraction rates of individual fossil fuel producers against global climate targets, using two different approaches to quantify a burnable fossil fuel allowance (BFFA). BFFAs are calculated and compared with cumulative extraction since 2010 for the world's ten largest investor-owned companies and ten largest state-owned entities (SOEs), for oil and for gas, which together account for the majority of global oil and gas reserves and production. The results are strongly influenced by how BFFAs are quantified; allocating based on reserves favours SOEs over investor-owned companies, while allocating based on production would require most reduction to come from SOEs. Future research could refine the BFFA to account for equity, cost-effectiveness and emissions intensity.

A conceptual model of oceanic heat transport in the Snowball Earth scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Comeau, Darin; Kurtze, Douglas A.; Restrepo, Juan M.

2016-12-01

Geologic evidence suggests that the Earth may have been completely covered in ice in the distant past, a state known as Snowball Earth. This is still the subject of controversy, and has been the focus of modeling work from low-dimensional models up to state-of-the-art general circulation models. In our present global climate, the ocean plays a large role in redistributing heat from the equatorial regions to high latitudes, and as an important part of the global heat budget, its role in the initiation a Snowball Earth, and the subsequent climate, is of great interest. To better understand the role of oceanic heat transport in the initiation of Snowball Earth, and the resulting global ice covered climate state, the goal of this inquiry is twofold: we wish to propose the least complex model that can capture the Snowball Earth scenario as well as the present-day climate with partial ice cover, and we want to determine the relative importance of oceanic heat transport. To do this, we develop a simple model, incorporating thermohaline dynamics from traditional box ocean models, a radiative balance from energy balance models, and the more contemporary "sea glacier" model to account for viscous flow effects of extremely thick sea ice. The resulting model, consisting of dynamic ocean and ice components, is able to reproduce both Snowball Earth and present-day conditions through reasonable changes in forcing parameters. We find that including or neglecting oceanic heat transport may lead to vastly different global climate states, and also that the parameterization of under-ice heat transfer in the ice-ocean coupling plays a key role in the resulting global climate state, demonstrating the regulatory effect of dynamic ocean heat transport.

Climate change and California: potential implications for vegetation, carbon, and fire.

Treesearch

Jonathan Thompson

2005-01-01

Nineteen scientists from leading research institutes in the United States collaborated to estimate how California’s environment and economy would respond to global climate change. A scientist from the PNW Research Station led efforts to estimate effects on vegetation, carbon, and fire.To quantify the range of the possible effects of climate change over the...

Observed changes in phenology across the USA: A regional review for the 2013 National Climate Assessment, Southwest Regional Information Sheet

USGS Publications Warehouse

Leicht-Young, Stacey A.; Enquist, Carolyn A.F.; Weltzin, Jake F.

2013-01-01

This information was developed in support of the U.S. Global Change Research Program’s National Climate Assessment and can be used to facilitate preparation for the cascading effects of ongoing climate change.

Future Scenarios for Plant Virus Pathogens as Climate Change Progresses.

PubMed

Jones, R A C

2016-01-01

Knowledge of how climate change is likely to influence future virus disease epidemics in cultivated plants and natural vegetation is of great importance to both global food security and natural ecosystems. However, obtaining such knowledge is hampered by the complex effects of climate alterations on the behavior of diverse types of vectors and the ease by which previously unknown viruses can emerge. A review written in 2011 provided a comprehensive analysis of available data on the effects of climate change on virus disease epidemics worldwide. This review summarizes its findings and those of two earlier climate change reviews and focuses on describing research published on the subject since 2011. It describes the likely effects of the full range of direct and indirect climate change parameters on hosts, viruses and vectors, virus control prospects, and the many information gaps and deficiencies. Recently, there has been encouraging progress in understanding the likely effects of some climate change parameters, especially over the effects of elevated CO2, temperature, and rainfall-related parameters, upon a small number of important plant viruses and several key insect vectors, especially aphids. However, much more research needs to be done to prepare for an era of (i) increasingly severe virus epidemics and (ii) increasing difficulties in controlling them, so as to mitigate their detrimental effects on future global food security and plant biodiversity. © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Linking global climate and temperature variability to widespread amphibian declines putatively caused by disease.

PubMed

Rohr, Jason R; Raffel, Thomas R

2010-05-04

The role of global climate change in the decline of biodiversity and the emergence of infectious diseases remains controversial, and the effect of climatic variability, in particular, has largely been ignored. For instance, it was recently revealed that the proposed link between climate change and widespread amphibian declines, putatively caused by the chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), was tenuous because it was based on a temporally confounded correlation. Here we provide temporally unconfounded evidence that global El Niño climatic events drive widespread amphibian losses in genus Atelopus via increased regional temperature variability, which can reduce amphibian defenses against pathogens. Of 26 climate variables tested, only factors associated with temperature variability could account for the spatiotemporal patterns of declines thought to be associated with Bd. Climatic predictors of declines became significant only after controlling for a pattern consistent with epidemic spread (by temporally detrending the data). This presumed spread accounted for 59% of the temporal variation in amphibian losses, whereas El Niño accounted for 59% of the remaining variation. Hence, we could account for 83% of the variation in declines with these two variables alone. Given that global climate change seems to increase temperature variability, extreme climatic events, and the strength of Central Pacific El Niño episodes, climate change might exacerbate worldwide enigmatic declines of amphibians, presumably by increasing susceptibility to disease. These results suggest that changes to temperature variability associated with climate change might be as significant to biodiversity losses and disease emergence as changes to mean temperature.

Climate mediates the effects of disturbance on ant assemblage structure.

PubMed

Gibb, Heloise; Sanders, Nathan J; Dunn, Robert R; Watson, Simon; Photakis, Manoli; Abril, Silvia; Andersen, Alan N; Angulo, Elena; Armbrecht, Inge; Arnan, Xavier; Baccaro, Fabricio B; Bishop, Tom R; Boulay, Raphael; Castracani, Cristina; Del Toro, Israel; Delsinne, Thibaut; Diaz, Mireia; Donoso, David A; Enríquez, Martha L; Fayle, Tom M; Feener, Donald H; Fitzpatrick, Matthew C; Gómez, Crisanto; Grasso, Donato A; Groc, Sarah; Heterick, Brian; Hoffmann, Benjamin D; Lach, Lori; Lattke, John; Leponce, Maurice; Lessard, Jean-Philippe; Longino, John; Lucky, Andrea; Majer, Jonathan; Menke, Sean B; Mezger, Dirk; Mori, Alessandra; Munyai, Thinandavha C; Paknia, Omid; Pearce-Duvet, Jessica; Pfeiffer, Martin; Philpott, Stacy M; de Souza, Jorge L P; Tista, Melanie; Vasconcelos, Heraldo L; Vonshak, Merav; Parr, Catherine L

2015-06-07

Many studies have focused on the impacts of climate change on biological assemblages, yet little is known about how climate interacts with other major anthropogenic influences on biodiversity, such as habitat disturbance. Using a unique global database of 1128 local ant assemblages, we examined whether climate mediates the effects of habitat disturbance on assemblage structure at a global scale. Species richness and evenness were associated positively with temperature, and negatively with disturbance. However, the interaction among temperature, precipitation and disturbance shaped species richness and evenness. The effect was manifested through a failure of species richness to increase substantially with temperature in transformed habitats at low precipitation. At low precipitation levels, evenness increased with temperature in undisturbed sites, peaked at medium temperatures in disturbed sites and remained low in transformed sites. In warmer climates with lower rainfall, the effects of increasing disturbance on species richness and evenness were akin to decreases in temperature of up to 9°C. Anthropogenic disturbance and ongoing climate change may interact in complicated ways to shape the structure of assemblages, with hot, arid environments likely to be at greatest risk. © 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Sources of global climate data and visualization portals

USGS Publications Warehouse

Douglas, David C.

2014-01-01

Climate is integral to the geophysical foundation upon which ecosystems are structured. Knowledge about mechanistic linkages between the geophysical and biological environments is essential for understanding how global warming may reshape contemporary ecosystems and ecosystem services. Numerous global data sources spanning several decades are available that document key geophysical metrics such as temperature and precipitation, and metrics of primary biological production such as vegetation phenology and ocean phytoplankton. This paper provides an internet directory to portals for visualizing or servers for downloading many of the more commonly used global datasets, as well as a description of how to write simple computer code to efficiently retrieve these data. The data are broadly useful for quantifying relationships between climate, habitat availability, and lower-trophic-level habitat quality - especially in Arctic regions where strong seasonality is accompanied by intrinsically high year-to-year variability. If defensible linkages between the geophysical (climate) and the biological environment can be established, general circulation model (GCM) projections of future climate conditions can be used to infer future biological responses. Robustness of this approach is, however, complicated by the number of direct, indirect, or interacting linkages involved. For example, response of a predator species to climate change will be influenced by the responses of its prey and competitors, and so forth throughout a trophic web. The complexities of ecological systems warrant sensible and parsimonious approaches for assessing and establishing the role of natural climate variability in order to substantiate inferences about the potential effects of global warming.

DOE Final Report on Collaborative Research. Quantifying Climate Feedbacks of the Terrestrial Biosphere under Thawing Permafrost Conditions in the Arctic

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhuang, Qianlai; Schlosser, C. Adam; Melillo, Jerry M.

2015-11-03

Our overall goal is to quantify the potential for threshold changes in natural emission rates of trace gases, particularly methane and carbon dioxide, from pan-arctic terrestrial systems under the spectrum of anthropogenically-forced climate warming, and the conditions under which these emissions provide a strong feedback mechanism to global climate warming. This goal is motivated under the premise that polar amplification of global climate warming will induce widespread thaw and degradation of the permafrost, and would thus cause substantial changes to the landscape of wetlands and lakes, especially thermokarst (thaw) lakes, across the Arctic. Through a suite of numerical experiments thatmore » encapsulate the fundamental processes governing methane emissions and carbon exchanges – as well as their coupling to the global climate system - we intend to test the following hypothesis in the proposed research: There exists a climate warming threshold beyond which permafrost degradation becomes widespread and stimulates large increases in methane emissions (via thermokarst lakes and poorly-drained wetland areas upon thawing permafrost along with microbial metabolic responses to higher temperatures) and increases in carbon dioxide emissions from well-drained areas. Besides changes in biogeochemistry, this threshold will also influence global energy dynamics through effects on surface albedo, evapotranspiration and water vapor. These changes would outweigh any increased uptake of carbon (e.g. from peatlands and higher plant photosynthesis) and would result in a strong, positive feedback to global climate warming.« less

Collaborative Research. Quantifying Climate Feedbacks of the Terrestrial Biosphere under Thawing Permafrost Conditions in the Arctic

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhuang, Qianlai; Schlosser, Courtney; Melillo, Jerry

2015-09-15

Our overall goal is to quantify the potential for threshold changes in natural emission rates of trace gases, particularly methane and carbon dioxide, from pan-arctic terrestrial systems under the spectrum of anthropogenically-forced climate warming, and the conditions under which these emissions provide a strong feedback mechanism to global climate warming. This goal is motivated under the premise that polar amplification of global climate warming will induce widespread thaw and degradation of the permafrost, and would thus cause substantial changes to the landscape of wetlands and lakes, especially thermokarst (thaw) lakes, across the Arctic. Through a suite of numerical experiments thatmore » encapsulate the fundamental processes governing methane emissions and carbon exchanges – as well as their coupling to the global climate system - we intend to test the following hypothesis in the proposed research: There exists a climate warming threshold beyond which permafrost degradation becomes widespread and stimulates large increases in methane emissions (via thermokarst lakes and poorly-drained wetland areas upon thawing permafrost along with microbial metabolic responses to higher temperatures) and increases in carbon dioxide emissions from well-drained areas. Besides changes in biogeochemistry, this threshold will also influence global energy dynamics through effects on surface albedo, evapotranspiration and water vapor. These changes would outweigh any increased uptake of carbon (e.g. from peatlands and higher plant photosynthesis) and would result in a strong, positive feedback to global climate warming.« less

The impact of high-end climate change on agricultural welfare

PubMed Central

Stevanović, Miodrag; Popp, Alexander; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Dietrich, Jan Philipp; Müller, Christoph; Bonsch, Markus; Schmitz, Christoph; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; Humpenöder, Florian; Weindl, Isabelle

2016-01-01

Climate change threatens agricultural productivity worldwide, resulting in higher food prices. Associated economic gains and losses differ not only by region but also between producers and consumers and are affected by market dynamics. On the basis of an impact modeling chain, starting with 19 different climate projections that drive plant biophysical process simulations and ending with agro-economic decisions, this analysis focuses on distributional effects of high-end climate change impacts across geographic regions and across economic agents. By estimating the changes in surpluses of consumers and producers, we find that climate change can have detrimental impacts on global agricultural welfare, especially after 2050, because losses in consumer surplus generally outweigh gains in producer surplus. Damage in agriculture may reach the annual loss of 0.3% of future total gross domestic product at the end of the century globally, assuming further opening of trade in agricultural products, which typically leads to interregional production shifts to higher latitudes. Those estimated global losses could increase substantially if international trade is more restricted. If beneficial effects of atmospheric carbon dioxide fertilization can be realized in agricultural production, much of the damage could be avoided. Although trade policy reforms toward further liberalization help alleviate climate change impacts, additional compensation mechanisms for associated environmental and development concerns have to be considered. PMID:27574700

Potential impact of global climate change on malaria risk

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Martens, W.J.M.; Rotmans, J.; Niessen, L.W.

The biological activity and geographic distribution of the malarial parasite and its vector are sensitive to climatic influences, especially temperature and precipitation. We have incorporated General Circulation Model-based scenarios of anthropogenic global climate change in an integrated linked-system model for predicting changes in malaria epidemic potential in the next century. The concept of the disability-adjusted life years is included to arrive at a single measure of the effect of anthropogenic climate change on the health impact of malaria. Assessment of the potential impact of global climate change on the incidence of malaria suggests a widespread increase of risk due tomore » expansion of the areas suitable for malaria transmission. This predicted increase is most pronounced at the borders of endemic malaria areas and at higher altitudes within malarial areas. The incidence of infection is sensitive to climate changes in areas of Southeast Asia, South America, and parts of Africa where the disease is less endemic; in these regions the numbers of years of healthy life lost may increase significantly. However, the simulated changes in malaria risk must be interpreted on the basis of local environmental conditions, the effects of socioeconomic developments, and malaria control programs or capabilities. 33 refs., 5 figs., 1 tab.« less

The impact of high-end climate change on agricultural welfare.

PubMed

Stevanović, Miodrag; Popp, Alexander; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Dietrich, Jan Philipp; Müller, Christoph; Bonsch, Markus; Schmitz, Christoph; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; Humpenöder, Florian; Weindl, Isabelle

2016-08-01

Climate change threatens agricultural productivity worldwide, resulting in higher food prices. Associated economic gains and losses differ not only by region but also between producers and consumers and are affected by market dynamics. On the basis of an impact modeling chain, starting with 19 different climate projections that drive plant biophysical process simulations and ending with agro-economic decisions, this analysis focuses on distributional effects of high-end climate change impacts across geographic regions and across economic agents. By estimating the changes in surpluses of consumers and producers, we find that climate change can have detrimental impacts on global agricultural welfare, especially after 2050, because losses in consumer surplus generally outweigh gains in producer surplus. Damage in agriculture may reach the annual loss of 0.3% of future total gross domestic product at the end of the century globally, assuming further opening of trade in agricultural products, which typically leads to interregional production shifts to higher latitudes. Those estimated global losses could increase substantially if international trade is more restricted. If beneficial effects of atmospheric carbon dioxide fertilization can be realized in agricultural production, much of the damage could be avoided. Although trade policy reforms toward further liberalization help alleviate climate change impacts, additional compensation mechanisms for associated environmental and development concerns have to be considered.

Finding "Models" in Clouds

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Leung, Ruby

2017-05-01

Internationally recognized Climate Scientist Ruby Leung is a cloud gazer. But rather than looking for shapes, Ruby’s life’s calling is to develop regional atmospheric models to better predict and understand the effects of global climate change at scales relevant to humans and the environment. Ruby’s accomplishments include developing novel methods for modeling mountain clouds and precipitation in climate models, and improving understanding of hydroclimate variability and change. She also has led efforts to develop regional climate modeling capabilities in the Weather Research and Forecasting model that is widely adopted by scientists worldwide. Ruby is part of a team of PNNLmore » researchers studying the impacts of global warming.« less

Climate Change, Climate Justice, and Environmental Health: Implications for the Nursing Profession.

PubMed

Nicholas, Patrice K; Breakey, Suellen

2017-11-01

Climate change is an emerging challenge linked to negative outcomes for the environment and human health. Since the 1960s, there has been a growing recognition of the need to address climate change and the impact of greenhouse gas emissions implicated in the warming of our planet. There are also deleterious health outcomes linked to complex climate changes that are emerging in the 21st century. This article addresses the social justice issues associated with climate change and human health and discussion of climate justice. Discussion paper. A literature search of electronic databases was conducted for articles, texts, and documents related to climate change, climate justice, and human health. The literature suggests that those who contribute least to global warming are those who will disproportionately be affected by the negative health outcomes of climate change. The concept of climate justice and the role of the Mary Robinson Foundation-Climate Justice are discussed within a framework of nursing's professional responsibility and the importance of social justice for the world's people. The nursing profession must take a leadership role in engaging in policy and advocacy discussions in addressing the looming problems associated with climate change. Nursing organizations have adopted resolutions and engaged in leadership roles to address climate change at the local, regional, national, and global level. It is essential that nurses embrace concepts related to social justice and engage in the policy debate regarding the deleterious effects on human health related to global warming and climate change. Nursing's commitment to social justice offers an opportunity to offer significant global leadership in addressing the health implications related to climate change. Recognizing the negative impacts of climate change on well-being and the underlying socioeconomic reasons for their disproportionate and inequitable distribution can expand and optimize the profession's role in education, practice, research, and policy-making efforts to address climate change. © 2017 Sigma Theta Tau International.

The influence of global climate change on the environmental fate of persistent organic pollutants: A review with emphasis on the Northern Hemisphere and the Arctic as a receptor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Jianmin; Hung, Hayley; Macdonald, Robie W.

2016-11-01

Following worldwide bans and restrictions on the use of many persistent organic pollutants (POPs) from the late 1970s, their regional and global distributions have become governed increasingly by phase partitioning between environmental reservoirs, such as air, water, soil, vegetation and ice, where POPs accumulated during the original applications. Presently, further transport occurs within the atmospheric and aquatic reservoirs. Increasing temperatures provide thermodynamic forcing to drive these chemicals out of reservoirs, like soil, vegetation, water and ice, and into the atmosphere where they can be transported rapidly by winds and then recycled among environmental media to reach locations where lower temperatures prevail (e.g., polar regions and high elevations). Global climate change, widely considered as global warming, is also manifested by changes in hydrological systems and in the cryosphere; with the latter now exhibiting widespread loss of ice cover on the Arctic Ocean and thawing of permafrost. All of these changes alter the cycling and fate of POPs. There is abundant evidence from observations and modeling showing that climate variation has an effect on POPs levels in biotic and abiotic environments. This article reviews recent progress in research on the effects of climate change on POPs with the intention of promoting awareness of the importance of interactions between climate and POPs in the geophysical and ecological systems.

Projected changes of the southwest Australian wave climate under two atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration pathways

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wandres, Moritz; Pattiaratchi, Charitha; Hemer, Mark A.

2017-09-01

Incident wave energy flux is responsible for sediment transport and coastal erosion in wave-dominated regions such as the southwestern Australian (SWA) coastal zone. To evaluate future wave climates under increased greenhouse gas concentration scenarios, past studies have forced global wave simulations with wind data sourced from global climate model (GCM) simulations. However, due to the generally coarse spatial resolution of global climate and wave simulations, the effects of changing offshore wave conditions and sea level rise on the nearshore wave climate are still relatively unknown. To address this gap of knowledge, we investigated the projected SWA offshore, shelf, and nearshore wave climate under two potential future greenhouse gas concentration trajectories (representative concentration pathways RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). This was achieved by downscaling an ensemble of global wave simulations, forced with winds from GCMs participating in the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5), into two regional domains, using the Simulating WAves Nearshore (SWAN) wave model. The wave climate is modeled for a historical 20-year time slice (1986-2005) and a projected future 20-year time-slice (2081-2100) for both scenarios. Furthermore, we compare these scenarios to the effects of considering sea-level rise (SLR) alone (stationary wave climate), and to the effects of combined SLR and projected wind-wave change. Results indicated that the SWA shelf and nearshore wave climate is more sensitive to changes in offshore mean wave direction than offshore wave heights. Nearshore, wave energy flux was projected to increase by ∼10% in exposed areas and decrease by ∼10% in sheltered areas under both climate scenarios due to a change in wave directions, compared to an overall increase of 2-4% in offshore wave heights. With SLR, the annual mean wave energy flux was projected to increase by up to 20% in shallow water (< 30 m) as a result of decreased wave dissipation. In winter months, the longshore wave energy flux, which is responsible for littoral drift, is expected to increase by up to 39% (62%) under the RCP4.5 (RCP8.5) greenhouse gas concentration pathway with SLR. The study highlights the importance of using high-resolution wave simulations to evaluate future regional wave climates, since the coastal wave climate is more responsive to changes in wave direction and sea level than offshore wave heights.

Responses of Terrestrial Ecosystems’ Net Primary Productivity to Future Regional Climate Change in China

PubMed Central

Zhao, Dongsheng; Wu, Shaohong; Yin, Yunhe

2013-01-01

The impact of regional climate change on net primary productivity (NPP) is an important aspect in the study of ecosystems’ response to global climate change. China’s ecosystems are very sensitive to climate change owing to the influence of the East Asian monsoon. The Lund–Potsdam–Jena Dynamic Global Vegetation Model for China (LPJ-CN), a global dynamical vegetation model developed for China’s terrestrial ecosystems, was applied in this study to simulate the NPP changes affected by future climate change. As the LPJ-CN model is based on natural vegetation, the simulation in this study did not consider the influence of anthropogenic activities. Results suggest that future climate change would have adverse effects on natural ecosystems, with NPP tending to decrease in eastern China, particularly in the temperate and warm temperate regions. NPP would increase in western China, with a concentration in the Tibetan Plateau and the northwest arid regions. The increasing trend in NPP in western China and the decreasing trend in eastern China would be further enhanced by the warming climate. The spatial distribution of NPP, which declines from the southeast coast to the northwest inland, would have minimal variation under scenarios of climate change. PMID:23593325

Responses of terrestrial ecosystems' net primary productivity to future regional climate change in China.

PubMed

Zhao, Dongsheng; Wu, Shaohong; Yin, Yunhe

2013-01-01

The impact of regional climate change on net primary productivity (NPP) is an important aspect in the study of ecosystems' response to global climate change. China's ecosystems are very sensitive to climate change owing to the influence of the East Asian monsoon. The Lund-Potsdam-Jena Dynamic Global Vegetation Model for China (LPJ-CN), a global dynamical vegetation model developed for China's terrestrial ecosystems, was applied in this study to simulate the NPP changes affected by future climate change. As the LPJ-CN model is based on natural vegetation, the simulation in this study did not consider the influence of anthropogenic activities. Results suggest that future climate change would have adverse effects on natural ecosystems, with NPP tending to decrease in eastern China, particularly in the temperate and warm temperate regions. NPP would increase in western China, with a concentration in the Tibetan Plateau and the northwest arid regions. The increasing trend in NPP in western China and the decreasing trend in eastern China would be further enhanced by the warming climate. The spatial distribution of NPP, which declines from the southeast coast to the northwest inland, would have minimal variation under scenarios of climate change.

Exploring the Mass Balance and Sea Level Contribution of Global Glaciers During the Last Interglaciation and Mid-Holocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, S.; Ullman, D. J.; He, F.; Carlson, A. E.; Marzeion, B.; Maussion, F.

2017-12-01

Understanding the behavior of the world's glaciers during previous interglaciations is key to interpreting the sensitivity and behavior of the cryosphere under scenarios of future anthropogenic warming. Previous studies of the Last Interglaciation (LIG, 130 ka to 116 ka) indicate elevated global temperatures and higher sea levels than the Holocene, but most assessments of the impact on the cryosphere have focused on the mass balance and volume change of polar ice sheets. In assessing sea-level sources, most studies assume complete deglacation of global glaciers, but this has yet to be tested. In addition, the significant changes in orbital forcing during the LIG and the associated impacts on climate seasonality and variability may have led to unique glacier evolution.Here, we explore the effect of LIG climate on the global glacier budget. We employ the Open Global Glacier Model (OGGM), forced by simulated LIG equilibrium climate anomalies (127 ka) from the Community Climate System Model Version 3 (CCSM3). OGGM is a glacier mass balance and dynamics model, specifically designed to reconstruct global glacier volume change. Our simulations have been conducted in an equilibrium state to determine the effect of the prolonged climate forcing of the LIG. Due to unknown flow characteristics of glaciers during the LIG, we explore the parametric uncertainty in the mass balance and flow sensitivity parameters. As a point of comparison, we also conduct a series of simulations using forcing anomalies from the CCSM3 mid-Holocene (6 ka) experiment. Results from both experiments show that glacier mass balance is highly sensitive to these sensitivity parameters, pointing at the need for glacier margin calibration for OGGM in paleoclimate applications.

Global peatland initiation driven by regionally asynchronous warming.

PubMed

Morris, Paul J; Swindles, Graeme T; Valdes, Paul J; Ivanovic, Ruza F; Gregoire, Lauren J; Smith, Mark W; Tarasov, Lev; Haywood, Alan M; Bacon, Karen L

2018-05-08

Widespread establishment of peatlands since the Last Glacial Maximum represents the activation of a globally important carbon sink, but the drivers of peat initiation are unclear. The role of climate in peat initiation is particularly poorly understood. We used a general circulation model to simulate local changes in climate during the initiation of 1,097 peatlands around the world. We find that peat initiation in deglaciated landscapes in both hemispheres was driven primarily by warming growing seasons, likely through enhanced plant productivity, rather than by any increase in effective precipitation. In Western Siberia, which remained ice-free throughout the last glacial period, the initiation of the world's largest peatland complex was globally unique in that it was triggered by an increase in effective precipitation that inhibited soil respiration and allowed wetland plant communities to establish. Peat initiation in the tropics was only weakly related to climate change, and appears to have been driven primarily by nonclimatic mechanisms such as waterlogging due to tectonic subsidence. Our findings shed light on the genesis and Holocene climate space of one of the world's most carbon-dense ecosystem types, with implications for understanding trajectories of ecological change under changing future climates.

Climate change and skin.

PubMed

Balato, N; Ayala, F; Megna, M; Balato, A; Patruno, C

2013-02-01

Global climate appears to be changing at an unprecedented rate. Climate change can be caused by several factors that include variations in solar radiation received by earth, oceanic processes (such as oceanic circulation), plate tectonics, and volcanic eruptions, as well as human-induced alterations of the natural world. Many human activities, such as the use of fossil fuel and the consequent accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, land consumption, deforestation, industrial processes, as well as some agriculture practices are contributing to global climate change. Indeed, many authors have reported on the current trend towards global warming (average surface temperature has augmented by 0.6 °C over the past 100 years), decreased precipitation, atmospheric humidity changes, and global rise in extreme climatic events. The magnitude and cause of these changes and their impact on human activity have become important matters of debate worldwide, representing climate change as one of the greatest challenges of the modern age. Although many articles have been written based on observations and various predictive models of how climate change could affect social, economic and health systems, only few studies exist about the effects of this change on skin physiology and diseases. However, the skin is the most exposed organ to environment; therefore, cutaneous diseases are inclined to have a high sensitivity to climate. For example, global warming, deforestation and changes in precipitation have been linked to variations in the geographical distribution of vectors of some infectious diseases (leishmaniasis, lyme disease, etc) by changing their spread, whereas warm and humid environment can also encourage the colonization of the skin by bacteria and fungi. The present review focuses on the wide and complex relationship between climate change and dermatology, showing the numerous factors that are contributing to modify the incidence and the clinical pattern of many dermatoses.

Climatic vulnerability of the world’s freshwater and marine fishes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Comte, Lise; Olden, Julian D.

2017-10-01

Climate change is a mounting threat to biological diversity, compromising ecosystem structure and function, and undermining the delivery of essential services worldwide. As the magnitude and speed of climate change accelerates, greater understanding of the taxonomy and geography of climatic vulnerability is critical to guide effective conservation action. However, many uncertainties remain regarding the degree and variability of climatic risk within entire clades and across vast ecosystem boundaries. Here we integrate physiological estimates of thermal sensitivity for 2,960 ray-finned fishes with future climatic exposure, and demonstrate that global patterns of vulnerability differ substantially between freshwater and marine realms. Our results suggest that climatic vulnerability for freshwater faunas will be predominantly determined by elevated levels of climatic exposure predicted for the Northern Hemisphere, whereas marine faunas in the tropics will be the most at risk, reflecting their higher intrinsic sensitivity. Spatial overlap between areas of high physiological risk and high human impacts, together with evidence of low past rates of evolution in upper thermal tolerance, highlights the urgency of global conservation actions and policy initiatives if harmful climate effects on the world’s fishes are to be mitigated in the future.

Adapting to and coping with the threat and impacts of climate change.

PubMed

Reser, Joseph P; Swim, Janet K

2011-01-01

This article addresses the nature and challenge of adaptation in the context of global climate change. The complexity of "climate change" as threat, environmental stressor, risk domain, and impacting process with dramatic environmental and human consequences requires a synthesis of perspectives and models from diverse areas of psychology to adequately communicate and explain how a more psychological framing of the human dimensions of global environmental change can greatly inform and enhance effective and collaborative climate change adaptation and mitigation policies and research. An integrative framework is provided that identifies and considers important mediating and moderating parameters and processes relating to climate change adaptation, with particular emphasis given to environmental stress and stress and coping perspectives. This psychological perspective on climate change adaptation highlights crucial aspects of adaptation that have been neglected in the arena of climate change science. Of particular importance are intra-individual and social "psychological adaptation" processes that powerfully mediate public risk perceptions and understandings, effective coping responses and resilience, overt behavioral adjustment and change, and psychological and social impacts. This psychological window on climate change adaptation is arguably indispensable to genuinely multidisciplinary and interdisciplinary research and policy initiatives addressing the impacts of climate change.

Does climate variability influence the demography of wild primates? Evidence from long-term life-history data in seven species.

PubMed

Campos, Fernando A; Morris, William F; Alberts, Susan C; Altmann, Jeanne; Brockman, Diane K; Cords, Marina; Pusey, Anne; Stoinski, Tara S; Strier, Karen B; Fedigan, Linda M

2017-11-01

Earth's rapidly changing climate creates a growing need to understand how demographic processes in natural populations are affected by climate variability, particularly among organisms threatened by extinction. Long-term, large-scale, and cross-taxon studies of vital rate variation in relation to climate variability can be particularly valuable because they can reveal environmental drivers that affect multiple species over extensive regions. Few such data exist for animals with slow life histories, particularly in the tropics, where climate variation over large-scale space is asynchronous. As our closest relatives, nonhuman primates are especially valuable as a resource to understand the roles of climate variability and climate change in human evolutionary history. Here, we provide the first comprehensive investigation of vital rate variation in relation to climate variability among wild primates. We ask whether primates are sensitive to global changes that are universal (e.g., higher temperature, large-scale climate oscillations) or whether they are more sensitive to global change effects that are local (e.g., more rain in some places), which would complicate predictions of how primates in general will respond to climate change. To address these questions, we use a database of long-term life-history data for natural populations of seven primate species that have been studied for 29-52 years to investigate associations between vital rate variation, local climate variability, and global climate oscillations. Associations between vital rates and climate variability varied among species and depended on the time windows considered, highlighting the importance of temporal scale in detection of such effects. We found strong climate signals in the fertility rates of three species. However, survival, which has a greater impact on population growth, was little affected by climate variability. Thus, we found evidence for demographic buffering of life histories, but also evidence of mechanisms by which climate change could affect the fates of wild primates. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Climate change vulnerability assessment of forests in the Southwest USA

Treesearch

James H. Thorne; Hyeyeong Choe; Peter A. Stine; Jeanne C. Chambers; Andrew Holguin; Amber C. Kerr; Mark W. Schwartz

2017-01-01

Climate change effects are already apparent in some Southwestern US forests and are expected to intensify in the coming decades, via direct (temperature, precipitation) and indirect (fire, pests, pathogens) stressors. We grouped Southwestern forests into ten major types to assess their climate exposure by 2070 using two global climate models (GCMs) and two emission...

Combined effects of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and El Niño-Southern Oscillation on global land dry-wet changes.

PubMed

Wang, Shanshan; Huang, Jianping; He, Yongli; Guan, Yuping

2014-10-17

The effects of natural variability, especially El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) effects, have been the focus of several recent studies on the change of drought patterns with climate change. The interannual relationship between ENSO and the global climate is not stationary and can be modulated by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). However, the global land distribution of the dry-wet changes associated with the combination of ENSO and the PDO remains unclear. In the present study, this is investigated using a revised Palmer Drought Severity Index dataset (sc_PDSI_pm). We find that the effect of ENSO on dry-wet changes varies with the PDO phase. When in phase with the PDO, ENSO-induced dry-wet changes are magnified with respect to the canonical pattern. When out of phase, these dry-wet variations weaken or even disappear. This remarkable contrast in ENSO's influence between the two phases of the PDO highlights exciting new avenues for obtaining improved global climate predictions. In recent decades, the PDO has turned negative with more La Niña events, implying more rain and flooding over land. La Niña-induced wet areas become wetter and the dry areas become drier and smaller due to the effects of the cold PDO phase.

Future U.S. ozone projections dependence on regional emissions, climate change, long-range transport and differences in modeling design

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Hao; Liang, Xin-Zhong; Lei, Hang; Wuebbles, Donald J.

2016-03-01

A consistent modeling framework with nested global and regional chemical transport models (CTMs) is used to separate and quantitatively assess the relative contributions to projections of future U.S. ozone pollution from the effects of emissions changes, climate change, long-range transport (LRT) of pollutants, and differences in modeling design. After incorporating dynamic lateral boundary conditions (LBCs) from a global CTM, a regional CTM's representation of present-day U.S. ozone pollution is notably improved, especially relative to results from the regional CTM with fixed LBCs or from the global CTM alone. This nested system of global and regional CTMs projects substantial surface ozone trends for the 2050's: 6-10 ppb decreases under the 'clean' A1B scenario and ∼15 ppb increases under the 'dirty' A1Fi scenario. Among the total trends of future ozone, regional emissions changes dominate, contributing negative 25-60% in A1B and positive 30-45% in A1Fi. Comparatively, climate change contributes positive 10-30%, while LRT effects through changing chemical LBCs account for positive 15-20% in both scenarios, suggesting introducing dynamic LBCs could influence projections of the U.S. future ozone pollution with a magnitude comparable to effects of climate change alone. The contribution to future ozone projections due to differences in modeling design, including model formulations, emissions treatments, and other factors between the global and the nested regional CTMs, is regionally dependent, ranging from negative 20% to positive 25%. It is shown that the model discrepancies for present-day simulations between global and regional CTMs can propagate into future U.S. ozone projections systematically but nonlinearly, especially in California and the Southeast. Therefore in addition to representations of emissions change and climate change, accurate treatment of LBCs for the regional CTM is essential for projecting the future U.S. ozone pollution.

Climatic crystal balls

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

What do anchovy and coffee prices have in common? They both are influenced by weather patterns. And so are a lot of other industries in the world of commodities. A new report from the National Research Council says it's time to protect these economic interests. The report outlines a new 15-year global research program that would help scientists make better seasonal and interannual climate predictions. Called the Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System or GOALS, the new program would be an extension of the decade-long international Tropical Ocean and Global Atmosphere (TOGA) program, which comes to an end this year. Besides studying the climatic effects of tropical phenomena such as the El Niño/Southern Oscillation, the program would expand these types of studies to Earth's higher latitudes and to additional physical processes, such as the effects of changes in upper ocean currents, soil moisture, vegetation, and land, snow, and sea-ice cover, among others.

Impacts of Canadian and global black carbon shipping emissions on Arctic climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shrestha, R.; von Salzen, K.

2017-12-01

Shipping activities have increased across the Arctic and are projected to continue to increase in the future. In this study we compare the climate impacts of Canadian and global shipping black carbon (BC) emissions on the Arctic using the Canadian Center for Climate Modelling and Analysis Earth System Model (CanESM4.1). The model simulations are performed with and without shipping emissions at T63 (128 x 64) spectral resolution. Results indicate that shipping activities enhance BC concentrations across the area close to the shipping emissions, which causes increased absorption of solar radiation (direct effect). An impact of shipping on temperatures is simulated across the entire Arctic, with maximum warming in fall and winter seasons. Although global mean temperature changes are very similar between the two simulations, increase in Canadian BC shipping emissions cause warmer Arctic land surface temperature in summer due to the direct radiative effects of aerosol.

Toward an integrated monitoring framework to assess the effects of tropical forest degradation and recovery on carbon stocks and biodiversity

Treesearch

Mercedes M. C. Bustamante; Iris Roitman; T. Mitchell Aide; Ane Alencar; Liana O. Anderson; Luiz Aragao; Gregory P. Asner; Jos Barlow; Erika Berenguer; Jeffrey Chambers; Marcos H. Costa; Thierry Fanin; Laerte G. Ferreira; Joice Ferreira; Michael Keller; William E. Magnusson; Lucia Morales-Barquero; Douglas Morton; Jean P. H. B. Ometto; Michael Palace; Carlos A. Peres; Divino Silverio; Susan Trumbore; Ima C. G. Vieira

2015-01-01

Tropical forests harbor a significant portion of global biodiversity and are a critical component of the climate system. Reducing deforestation and forest degradation contributes to global climate-change mitigation efforts, yet emissions and removals from forest dynamics are still poorly quantified. We reviewed the main challenges to estimate changes in carbon stocks...

Global change and terrestrial plant community dynamics

DOE PAGES

Franklin, Janet; Serra-Diaz, Josep M.; Syphard, Alexandra D.; ...

2016-02-29

Anthropogenic drivers of global change include rising atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gasses and resulting changes in the climate, as well as nitrogen deposition, biotic invasions, altered disturbance regimes, and land-use change. Predicting the effects of global change on terrestrial plant communities is crucial because of the ecosystem services vegetation provides, from climate regulation to forest products. In this article, we present a framework for detecting vegetation changes and attributing them to global change drivers that incorporates multiple lines of evidence from spatially extensive monitoring networks, distributed experiments, remotely sensed data, and historical records. Based on amore » literature review, we summarize observed changes and then describe modeling tools that can forecast the impacts of multiple drivers on plant communities in an era of rapid change. Observed responses to changes in temperature, water, nutrients, land use, and disturbance show strong sensitivity of ecosystem productivity and plant population dynamics to water balance and long-lasting effects of disturbance on plant community dynamics. Persistent effects of land-use change and human-altered fire regimes on vegetation can overshadow or interact with climate change impacts. Models forecasting plant community responses to global change incorporate shifting ecological niches, population dynamics, species interactions, spatially explicit disturbance, ecosystem processes, and plant functional responses. Lastly, monitoring, experiments, and models evaluating multiple change drivers are needed to detect and predict vegetation changes in response to 21st century global change.« less

Global change and terrestrial plant community dynamics

PubMed Central

Franklin, Janet; Serra-Diaz, Josep M.; Syphard, Alexandra D.; Regan, Helen M.

2016-01-01

Anthropogenic drivers of global change include rising atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gasses and resulting changes in the climate, as well as nitrogen deposition, biotic invasions, altered disturbance regimes, and land-use change. Predicting the effects of global change on terrestrial plant communities is crucial because of the ecosystem services vegetation provides, from climate regulation to forest products. In this paper, we present a framework for detecting vegetation changes and attributing them to global change drivers that incorporates multiple lines of evidence from spatially extensive monitoring networks, distributed experiments, remotely sensed data, and historical records. Based on a literature review, we summarize observed changes and then describe modeling tools that can forecast the impacts of multiple drivers on plant communities in an era of rapid change. Observed responses to changes in temperature, water, nutrients, land use, and disturbance show strong sensitivity of ecosystem productivity and plant population dynamics to water balance and long-lasting effects of disturbance on plant community dynamics. Persistent effects of land-use change and human-altered fire regimes on vegetation can overshadow or interact with climate change impacts. Models forecasting plant community responses to global change incorporate shifting ecological niches, population dynamics, species interactions, spatially explicit disturbance, ecosystem processes, and plant functional responses. Monitoring, experiments, and models evaluating multiple change drivers are needed to detect and predict vegetation changes in response to 21st century global change. PMID:26929338

Interactions between chemical and climate stressors: A role for mechanistic toxicology in assessing climate change risks

EPA Science Inventory

Incorporation of global climate change (GCC) effects into regulatory assessments of chemical risk and injury requires an integrated examination of both chemical and non-chemical stressors. Environmental variables altered by GCC, such as temperature, precipitation, salinity and pH...

Bird response to future climate and forest management focused on mitigating climate change

Treesearch

Jaymi J. LeBrun; Jeffrey E. Schneiderman; Frank R. Thompson; William D. Dijak; Jacob S. Fraser; Hong S. He; Joshua J. Millspaugh

2016-01-01

Context. Global temperatures are projected to increase and affect forests and wildlife populations. Forest management can potentially mitigate climateinduced changes through promoting carbon sequestration, forest resilience, and facilitated change. Objectives. We modeled direct and indirect effects of climate change on avian...

Climate Change and Health: Transcending Silos to Find Solutions.

PubMed

Machalaba, Catherine; Romanelli, Cristina; Stoett, Peter; Baum, Sarah E; Bouley, Timothy A; Daszak, Peter; Karesh, William B

2015-01-01

Climate change has myriad implications for the health of humans, our ecosystems, and the ecological processes that sustain them. Projections of rising greenhouse gas emissions suggest increasing direct and indirect burden of infectious and noninfectious disease, effects on food and water security, and other societal disruptions. As the effects of climate change cannot be isolated from social and ecological determinants of disease that will mitigate or exacerbate forecasted health outcomes, multidisciplinary collaboration is critically needed. The aim of this article was to review the links between climate change and its upstream drivers (ie, processes leading to greenhouse gas emissions) and health outcomes, and identify existing opportunities to leverage more integrated global health and climate actions to prevent, prepare for, and respond to anthropogenic pressures. We conducted a literature review of current and projected health outcomes associated with climate change, drawing on findings and our collective expertise to review opportunities for adaptation and mitigation across disciplines. Health outcomes related to climate change affect a wide range of stakeholders, providing ready collaborative opportunities for interventions, which can be differentiated by addressing the upstream drivers leading to climate change or the downstream effects of climate change itself. Although health professionals are challenged with risks from climate change and its drivers, the adverse health outcomes cannot be resolved by the public health community alone. A phase change in global health is needed to move from a passive responder in partnership with other societal sectors to drive innovative alternatives. It is essential for global health to step outside of its traditional boundaries to engage with other stakeholders to develop policy and practical solutions to mitigate disease burden of climate change and its drivers; this will also yield compound benefits that help address other health, environmental, and societal challenges. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Investigating the climate impacts of urbanization and the potential for cool roofs to counter future climate change in Southern California

DOE PAGES

Vahmani, P.; Sun, F.; Hall, A.; ...

2016-12-15

The climate warming effects of accelerated urbanization along with projected global climate change raise an urgent need for sustainable mitigation and adaptation strategies to cool urban climates. Our modeling results show that historical urbanization in the Los Angeles and San Diego metropolitan areas has increased daytime urban air temperature by 1.3 °C, in part due to a weakening of the onshore sea breeze circulation. We find that metropolis-wide adoption of cool roofs can meaningfully offset this daytime warming, reducing temperatures by 0.9 °C relative to a case without cool roofs. Residential cool roofs were responsible for 67% of the cooling.more » Nocturnal temperature increases of 3.1 °C from urbanization were larger than daytime warming, while nocturnal temperature reductions from cool roofs of 0.5 °C were weaker than corresponding daytime reductions. We further show that cool roof deployment could partially counter the local impacts of global climate change in the Los Angeles metropolitan area. Assuming a scenario in which there are dramatic decreases in greenhouse gas emissions in the 21st century (RCP2.6), mid- and end-of-century temperature increases from global change relative to current climate are similarly reduced by cool roofs from 1.4 °C to 0.6 °C. Assuming a scenario with continued emissions increases throughout the century (RCP8.5), mid-century warming is significantly reduced by cool roofs from 2.0 °C to 1.0 °C. The end-century warming, however, is significantly offset only in small localized areas containing mostly industrial/commercial buildings where cool roofs with the highest albedo are adopted. We conclude that metropolis-wide adoption of cool roofs can play an important role in mitigating the urban heat island effect, and offsetting near-term local warming from global climate change. Global-scale reductions in greenhouse gas emissions are the only way of avoiding long-term warming, however. We further suggest that both climate mitigation and adaptation can be pursued simultaneously using 'cool photovoltaics'.« less

Investigating the climate impacts of urbanization and the potential for cool roofs to counter future climate change in Southern California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vahmani, P.; Sun, F.; Hall, A.; Ban-Weiss, G.

2016-12-01

The climate warming effects of accelerated urbanization along with projected global climate change raise an urgent need for sustainable mitigation and adaptation strategies to cool urban climates. Our modeling results show that historical urbanization in the Los Angeles and San Diego metropolitan areas has increased daytime urban air temperature by 1.3 °C, in part due to a weakening of the onshore sea breeze circulation. We find that metropolis-wide adoption of cool roofs can meaningfully offset this daytime warming, reducing temperatures by 0.9 °C relative to a case without cool roofs. Residential cool roofs were responsible for 67% of the cooling. Nocturnal temperature increases of 3.1 °C from urbanization were larger than daytime warming, while nocturnal temperature reductions from cool roofs of 0.5 °C were weaker than corresponding daytime reductions. We further show that cool roof deployment could partially counter the local impacts of global climate change in the Los Angeles metropolitan area. Assuming a scenario in which there are dramatic decreases in greenhouse gas emissions in the 21st century (RCP2.6), mid- and end-of-century temperature increases from global change relative to current climate are similarly reduced by cool roofs from 1.4 °C to 0.6 °C. Assuming a scenario with continued emissions increases throughout the century (RCP8.5), mid-century warming is significantly reduced by cool roofs from 2.0 °C to 1.0 °C. The end-century warming, however, is significantly offset only in small localized areas containing mostly industrial/commercial buildings where cool roofs with the highest albedo are adopted. We conclude that metropolis-wide adoption of cool roofs can play an important role in mitigating the urban heat island effect, and offsetting near-term local warming from global climate change. Global-scale reductions in greenhouse gas emissions are the only way of avoiding long-term warming, however. We further suggest that both climate mitigation and adaptation can be pursued simultaneously using ‘cool photovoltaics’.

Investigating the climate impacts of urbanization and the potential for cool roofs to counter future climate change in Southern California

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Vahmani, P.; Sun, F.; Hall, A.

The climate warming effects of accelerated urbanization along with projected global climate change raise an urgent need for sustainable mitigation and adaptation strategies to cool urban climates. Our modeling results show that historical urbanization in the Los Angeles and San Diego metropolitan areas has increased daytime urban air temperature by 1.3 °C, in part due to a weakening of the onshore sea breeze circulation. We find that metropolis-wide adoption of cool roofs can meaningfully offset this daytime warming, reducing temperatures by 0.9 °C relative to a case without cool roofs. Residential cool roofs were responsible for 67% of the cooling.more » Nocturnal temperature increases of 3.1 °C from urbanization were larger than daytime warming, while nocturnal temperature reductions from cool roofs of 0.5 °C were weaker than corresponding daytime reductions. We further show that cool roof deployment could partially counter the local impacts of global climate change in the Los Angeles metropolitan area. Assuming a scenario in which there are dramatic decreases in greenhouse gas emissions in the 21st century (RCP2.6), mid- and end-of-century temperature increases from global change relative to current climate are similarly reduced by cool roofs from 1.4 °C to 0.6 °C. Assuming a scenario with continued emissions increases throughout the century (RCP8.5), mid-century warming is significantly reduced by cool roofs from 2.0 °C to 1.0 °C. The end-century warming, however, is significantly offset only in small localized areas containing mostly industrial/commercial buildings where cool roofs with the highest albedo are adopted. We conclude that metropolis-wide adoption of cool roofs can play an important role in mitigating the urban heat island effect, and offsetting near-term local warming from global climate change. Global-scale reductions in greenhouse gas emissions are the only way of avoiding long-term warming, however. We further suggest that both climate mitigation and adaptation can be pursued simultaneously using 'cool photovoltaics'.« less

Attribution of the United States "warming hole": aerosol indirect effect and precipitable water vapor.

PubMed

Yu, Shaocai; Alapaty, Kiran; Mathur, Rohit; Pleim, Jonathan; Zhang, Yuanhang; Nolte, Chris; Eder, Brian; Foley, Kristen; Nagashima, Tatsuya

2014-11-06

Aerosols can influence the climate indirectly by acting as cloud condensation nuclei and/or ice nuclei, thereby modifying cloud optical properties. In contrast to the widespread global warming, the central and south central United States display a noteworthy overall cooling trend during the 20(th) century, with an especially striking cooling trend in summertime daily maximum temperature (Tmax) (termed the U.S. "warming hole"). Here we used observations of temperature, shortwave cloud forcing (SWCF), longwave cloud forcing (LWCF), aerosol optical depth and precipitable water vapor as well as global coupled climate models to explore the attribution of the "warming hole". We find that the observed cooling trend in summer Tmax can be attributed mainly to SWCF due to aerosols with offset from the greenhouse effect of precipitable water vapor. A global coupled climate model reveals that the observed "warming hole" can be produced only when the aerosol fields are simulated with a reasonable degree of accuracy as this is necessary for accurate simulation of SWCF over the region. These results provide compelling evidence of the role of the aerosol indirect effect in cooling regional climate on the Earth. Our results reaffirm that LWCF can warm both winter Tmax and Tmin.

Inadvertent Weather Modification in Urban Areas: Lessons for Global Climate Change.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Changnon, Stanley A.

1992-05-01

Large metropolitan areas in North America, home to 65% of the nation's population, have created major changes in their climates over the past 150 years. The rate and amount of the urban climate change approximate those being predicted globally using climate models. Knowledge of urban weather and climate modification holds lessons for the global climate change issue. First, adjustments to urban climate changes can provide guidance for adjusting to global change. A second lesson relates to the difficulty but underscores the necessity of providing scientifically credible proof of change within the noise of natural climatic variability. The evolution of understanding about how urban conditions influence weather reveals several unexpected outcomes, particularly relating to precipitation changes. These suggest that similar future surprises can be expected in a changed global climate, a third lesson. In-depth studies of how urban climate changes affected the hydrologic cycle, the regional economy, and human activities were difficult because of data problems, lack of impact methodology, and necessity for multi disciplinary investigations. Similar impact studies for global climate change will require diverse scientific talents and funding commitments adequate to measure the complexity of impacts and human adjustments. Understanding the processes whereby urban areas and other human activities have altered the atmosphere and changed clouds and precipitation regionally appears highly relevant to the global climate-change issue. Scientific and governmental policy development needs to recognize an old axiom that became evident in the studies of inadvertent urban and regional climate change and their behavioral implications: Think globally but act locally. Global climate change is an international issue, and the atmosphere must be treated globally. But the impacts and the will to act and adjust will occur regionally.

Managing for interactions between local and global stressors of ecosystems.

PubMed

Brown, Christopher J; Saunders, Megan I; Possingham, Hugh P; Richardson, Anthony J

2013-01-01

Global stressors, including climate change, are a major threat to ecosystems, but they cannot be halted by local actions. Ecosystem management is thus attempting to compensate for the impacts of global stressors by reducing local stressors, such as overfishing. This approach assumes that stressors interact additively or synergistically, whereby the combined effect of two stressors is at least the sum of their isolated effects. It is not clear, however, how management should proceed for antagonistic interactions among stressors, where multiple stressors do not have an additive or greater impact. Research to date has focussed on identifying synergisms among stressors, but antagonisms may be just as common. We examined the effectiveness of management when faced with different types of interactions in two systems--seagrass and fish communities--where the global stressor was climate change but the local stressors were different. When there were synergisms, mitigating local stressors delivered greater gains, whereas when there were antagonisms, management of local stressors was ineffective or even degraded ecosystems. These results suggest that reducing a local stressor can compensate for climate change impacts if there is a synergistic interaction. Conversely, if there is an antagonistic interaction, management of local stressors will have the greatest benefits in areas of refuge from climate change. A balanced research agenda, investigating both antagonistic and synergistic interaction types, is needed to inform management priorities.

Global Priority Conservation Areas in the Face of 21st Century Climate Change

PubMed Central

Li, Junsheng; Lin, Xin; Chen, Anping; Peterson, Townsend; Ma, Keping; Bertzky, Monika; Ciais, Philippe; Kapos, Valerie; Peng, Changhui; Poulter, Benjamin

2013-01-01

In an era when global biodiversity is increasingly impacted by rapidly changing climate, efforts to conserve global biodiversity may be compromised if we do not consider the uneven distribution of climate-induced threats. Here, via a novel application of an aggregate Regional Climate Change Index (RCCI) that combines changes in mean annual temperature and precipitation with changes in their interannual variability, we assess multi-dimensional climate changes across the “Global 200” ecoregions – a set of priority ecoregions designed to “achieve the goal of saving a broad diversity of the Earth’s ecosystems” – over the 21st century. Using an ensemble of 62 climate scenarios, our analyses show that, between 1991–2010 and 2081–2100, 96% of the ecoregions considered will be likely (more than 66% probability) to face moderate-to-pronounced climate changes, when compared to the magnitudes of change during the past five decades. Ecoregions at high northern latitudes are projected to experience most pronounced climate change, followed by those in the Mediterranean Basin, Amazon Basin, East Africa, and South Asia. Relatively modest RCCI signals are expected over ecoregions in Northwest South America, West Africa, and Southeast Asia, yet with considerable uncertainties. Although not indicative of climate-change impacts per se, the RCCI-based assessment can help policy-makers gain a quantitative and comprehensive overview of the unevenly distributed climate risks across the G200 ecoregions. Whether due to significant climate change signals or large uncertainties, the ecoregions highlighted in the assessment deserve special attention in more detailed impact assessments to inform effective conservation strategies under future climate change. PMID:23359638

Global health benefits of mitigating ozone pollution with methane emission controls.

PubMed

West, J Jason; Fiore, Arlene M; Horowitz, Larry W; Mauzerall, Denise L

2006-03-14

Methane (CH(4)) contributes to the growing global background concentration of tropospheric ozone (O(3)), an air pollutant associated with premature mortality. Methane and ozone are also important greenhouse gases. Reducing methane emissions therefore decreases surface ozone everywhere while slowing climate warming, but although methane mitigation has been considered to address climate change, it has not for air quality. Here we show that global decreases in surface ozone concentrations, due to methane mitigation, result in substantial and widespread decreases in premature human mortality. Reducing global anthropogenic methane emissions by 20% beginning in 2010 would decrease the average daily maximum 8-h surface ozone by approximately 1 part per billion by volume globally. By using epidemiologic ozone-mortality relationships, this ozone reduction is estimated to prevent approximately 30,000 premature all-cause mortalities globally in 2030, and approximately 370,000 between 2010 and 2030. If only cardiovascular and respiratory mortalities are considered, approximately 17,000 global mortalities can be avoided in 2030. The marginal cost-effectiveness of this 20% methane reduction is estimated to be approximately 420,000 US dollars per avoided mortality. If avoided mortalities are valued at 1 US dollars million each, the benefit is approximately 240 US dollars per tone of CH(4) ( approximately 12 US dollars per tone of CO(2) equivalent), which exceeds the marginal cost of the methane reduction. These estimated air pollution ancillary benefits of climate-motivated methane emission reductions are comparable with those estimated previously for CO(2). Methane mitigation offers a unique opportunity to improve air quality globally and can be a cost-effective component of international ozone management, bringing multiple benefits for air quality, public health, agriculture, climate, and energy.

Aerosol climate change effects on land ecosystem services.

PubMed

Unger, N; Yue, X; Harper, K L

2017-08-24

A coupled global aerosol-carbon-climate model is applied to assess the impacts of aerosol physical climate change on the land ecosystem services gross primary productivity (GPP) and net primary productivity (NPP) in the 1996-2005 period. Aerosol impacts are quantified on an annual mean basis relative to the hypothetical aerosol-free world in 1996-2005, the global climate state in the absence of the historical rise in aerosol pollution. We examine the separate and combined roles of fast feedbacks associated with the land and slow feedbacks associated with the ocean. We consider all fossil fuel, biofuel and biomass burning aerosol emission sources as anthropogenic. The effective radiative forcing for aerosol-radiation interactions is -0.44 W m -2 and aerosol-cloud interactions is -1.64 W m -2 . Aerosols cool and dry the global climate system by -0.8 °C and -0.08 mm per day relative to the aerosol-free world. Without aerosol pollution, human-induced global warming since the preindustrial would have already exceeded the 1.5 °C aspirational limit set in the Paris Agreement by the 1996-2005 decade. Aerosol climate impacts on the global average land ecosystem services are small due to large opposite sign effects in the tropical and boreal biomes. Aerosol slow feedbacks associated with the ocean strongly dominate impacts in the Amazon and North American Boreal. Aerosol cooling of the Amazon by -1.2 °C drives NPP increases of 8% or +0.76 ± 0.61 PgC per year, a 5-10 times larger impact than estimates of diffuse radiation fertilization by biomass burning aerosol in this region. The North American Boreal suffers GPP and NPP decreases of 35% due to aerosol-induced cooling and drying (-1.6 °C, -0.14 mm per day). Aerosol-land feedbacks play a larger role in the eastern US and Central Africa. Our study identifies an eco-climate teleconnection in the polluted earth system: the rise of the northern hemisphere mid-latitude reflective aerosol pollution layer causes long range cooling that protects Amazon NPP by 8% and suppresses boreal NPP by 35%.

Apocalypse soon? Dire messages reduce belief in global warming by contradicting just-world beliefs.

PubMed

Feinberg, Matthew; Willer, Robb

2011-01-01

Though scientific evidence for the existence of global warming continues to mount, in the United States and other countries belief in global warming has stagnated or even decreased in recent years. One possible explanation for this pattern is that information about the potentially dire consequences of global warming threatens deeply held beliefs that the world is just, orderly, and stable. Individuals overcome this threat by denying or discounting the existence of global warming, and this process ultimately results in decreased willingness to counteract climate change. Two experiments provide support for this explanation of the dynamics of belief in global warming, suggesting that less dire messaging could be more effective for promoting public understanding of climate-change research.

El Niño/Southern Oscillation response to global warming

PubMed Central

Latif, M.; Keenlyside, N. S.

2009-01-01

The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, originating in the Tropical Pacific, is the strongest natural interannual climate signal and has widespread effects on the global climate system and the ecology of the Tropical Pacific. Any strong change in ENSO statistics will therefore have serious climatic and ecological consequences. Most global climate models do simulate ENSO, although large biases exist with respect to its characteristics. The ENSO response to global warming differs strongly from model to model and is thus highly uncertain. Some models simulate an increase in ENSO amplitude, others a decrease, and others virtually no change. Extremely strong changes constituting tipping point behavior are not simulated by any of the models. Nevertheless, some interesting changes in ENSO dynamics can be inferred from observations and model integrations. Although no tipping point behavior is envisaged in the physical climate system, smooth transitions in it may give rise to tipping point behavior in the biological, chemical, and even socioeconomic systems. For example, the simulated weakening of the Pacific zonal sea surface temperature gradient in the Hadley Centre model (with dynamic vegetation included) caused rapid Amazon forest die-back in the mid-twenty-first century, which in turn drove a nonlinear increase in atmospheric CO2, accelerating global warming. PMID:19060210

Water balance creates a threshold in soil pH at the global scale.

PubMed

Slessarev, E W; Lin, Y; Bingham, N L; Johnson, J E; Dai, Y; Schimel, J P; Chadwick, O A

2016-11-21

Soil pH regulates the capacity of soils to store and supply nutrients, and thus contributes substantially to controlling productivity in terrestrial ecosystems. However, soil pH is not an independent regulator of soil fertility-rather, it is ultimately controlled by environmental forcing. In particular, small changes in water balance cause a steep transition from alkaline to acid soils across natural climate gradients. Although the processes governing this threshold in soil pH are well understood, the threshold has not been quantified at the global scale, where the influence of climate may be confounded by the effects of topography and mineralogy. Here we evaluate the global relationship between water balance and soil pH by extracting a spatially random sample (n = 20,000) from an extensive compilation of 60,291 soil pH measurements. We show that there is an abrupt transition from alkaline to acid soil pH that occurs at the point where mean annual precipitation begins to exceed mean annual potential evapotranspiration. We evaluate deviations from this global pattern, showing that they may result from seasonality, climate history, erosion and mineralogy. These results demonstrate that climate creates a nonlinear pattern in soil solution chemistry at the global scale; they also reveal conditions under which soils maintain pH out of equilibrium with modern climate.

Large sensitivity in land carbon storage due to geographical and temporal variation in the thermal response of photosynthetic capacity.

PubMed

Mercado, Lina M; Medlyn, Belinda E; Huntingford, Chris; Oliver, Rebecca J; Clark, Douglas B; Sitch, Stephen; Zelazowski, Przemyslaw; Kattge, Jens; Harper, Anna B; Cox, Peter M

2018-06-01

Plant temperature responses vary geographically, reflecting thermally contrasting habitats and long-term species adaptations to their climate of origin. Plants also can acclimate to fast temporal changes in temperature regime to mitigate stress. Although plant photosynthetic responses are known to acclimate to temperature, many global models used to predict future vegetation and climate-carbon interactions do not include this process. We quantify the global and regional impacts of biogeographical variability and thermal acclimation of temperature response of photosynthetic capacity on the terrestrial carbon (C) cycle between 1860 and 2100 within a coupled climate-carbon cycle model, that emulates 22 global climate models. Results indicate that inclusion of biogeographical variation in photosynthetic temperature response is most important for present-day and future C uptake, with increasing importance of thermal acclimation under future warming. Accounting for both effects narrows the range of predictions of the simulated global land C storage in 2100 across climate projections (29% and 43% globally and in the tropics, respectively). Contrary to earlier studies, our results suggest that thermal acclimation of photosynthetic capacity makes tropical and temperate C less vulnerable to warming, but reduces the warming-induced C uptake in the boreal region under elevated CO 2 . © 2018 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2018 New Phytologist Trust.

Water balance creates a threshold in soil pH at the global scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Slessarev, E. W.; Lin, Y.; Bingham, N. L.; Johnson, J. E.; Dai, Y.; Schimel, J. P.; Chadwick, O. A.

2016-12-01

Soil pH regulates the capacity of soils to store and supply nutrients, and thus contributes substantially to controlling productivity in terrestrial ecosystems. However, soil pH is not an independent regulator of soil fertility—rather, it is ultimately controlled by environmental forcing. In particular, small changes in water balance cause a steep transition from alkaline to acid soils across natural climate gradients. Although the processes governing this threshold in soil pH are well understood, the threshold has not been quantified at the global scale, where the influence of climate may be confounded by the effects of topography and mineralogy. Here we evaluate the global relationship between water balance and soil pH by extracting a spatially random sample (n = 20,000) from an extensive compilation of 60,291 soil pH measurements. We show that there is an abrupt transition from alkaline to acid soil pH that occurs at the point where mean annual precipitation begins to exceed mean annual potential evapotranspiration. We evaluate deviations from this global pattern, showing that they may result from seasonality, climate history, erosion and mineralogy. These results demonstrate that climate creates a nonlinear pattern in soil solution chemistry at the global scale; they also reveal conditions under which soils maintain pH out of equilibrium with modern climate.

Climate impacts on global hot spots of marine biodiversity.

PubMed

Ramírez, Francisco; Afán, Isabel; Davis, Lloyd S; Chiaradia, André

2017-02-01

Human activities drive environmental changes at scales that could potentially cause ecosystem collapses in the marine environment. We combined information on marine biodiversity with spatial assessments of the impacts of climate change to identify the key areas to prioritize for the conservation of global marine biodiversity. This process identified six marine regions of exceptional biodiversity based on global distributions of 1729 species of fish, 124 marine mammals, and 330 seabirds. Overall, these hot spots of marine biodiversity coincide with areas most severely affected by global warming. In particular, these marine biodiversity hot spots have undergone local to regional increasing water temperatures, slowing current circulation, and decreasing primary productivity. Furthermore, when we overlapped these hot spots with available industrial fishery data, albeit coarser than our estimates of climate impacts, they suggest a worrying coincidence whereby the world's richest areas for marine biodiversity are also those areas mostly affected by both climate change and industrial fishing. In light of these findings, we offer an adaptable framework for determining local to regional areas of special concern for the conservation of marine biodiversity. This has exposed the need for finer-scaled fishery data to assist in the management of global fisheries if the accumulative, but potentially preventable, effect of fishing on climate change impacts is to be minimized within areas prioritized for marine biodiversity conservation.

Climate change and the global pattern of moraine-dammed glacial lake outburst floods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harrison, Stephan; Kargel, Jeffrey S.; Huggel, Christian; Reynolds, John; Shugar, Dan H.; Betts, Richard A.; Emmer, Adam; Glasser, Neil; Haritashya, Umesh K.; Klimeš, Jan; Reinhardt, Liam; Schaub, Yvonne; Wiltshire, Andy; Regmi, Dhananjay; Vilímek, Vít

2018-04-01

Despite recent research identifying a clear anthropogenic impact on glacier recession, the effect of recent climate change on glacier-related hazards is at present unclear. Here we present the first global spatio-temporal assessment of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) focusing explicitly on lake drainage following moraine dam failure. These floods occur as mountain glaciers recede and downwaste. GLOFs can have an enormous impact on downstream communities and infrastructure. Our assessment of GLOFs associated with the rapid drainage of moraine-dammed lakes provides insights into the historical trends of GLOFs and their distributions under current and future global climate change. We observe a clear global increase in GLOF frequency and their regularity around 1930, which likely represents a lagged response to post-Little Ice Age warming. Notably, we also show that GLOF frequency and regularity - rather unexpectedly - have declined in recent decades even during a time of rapid glacier recession. Although previous studies have suggested that GLOFs will increase in response to climate warming and glacier recession, our global results demonstrate that this has not yet clearly happened. From an assessment of the timing of climate forcing, lag times in glacier recession, lake formation and moraine-dam failure, we predict increased GLOF frequencies during the next decades and into the 22nd century.

El Nino/Southern Oscillation response to global warming.

PubMed

Latif, M; Keenlyside, N S

2009-12-08

The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, originating in the Tropical Pacific, is the strongest natural interannual climate signal and has widespread effects on the global climate system and the ecology of the Tropical Pacific. Any strong change in ENSO statistics will therefore have serious climatic and ecological consequences. Most global climate models do simulate ENSO, although large biases exist with respect to its characteristics. The ENSO response to global warming differs strongly from model to model and is thus highly uncertain. Some models simulate an increase in ENSO amplitude, others a decrease, and others virtually no change. Extremely strong changes constituting tipping point behavior are not simulated by any of the models. Nevertheless, some interesting changes in ENSO dynamics can be inferred from observations and model integrations. Although no tipping point behavior is envisaged in the physical climate system, smooth transitions in it may give rise to tipping point behavior in the biological, chemical, and even socioeconomic systems. For example, the simulated weakening of the Pacific zonal sea surface temperature gradient in the Hadley Centre model (with dynamic vegetation included) caused rapid Amazon forest die-back in the mid-twenty-first century, which in turn drove a nonlinear increase in atmospheric CO(2), accelerating global warming.

Global Climate Change Pilot Course Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schuenemann, K. C.; Wagner, R.

2011-12-01

In fall 2011 a pilot course on "Global Climate Change" is being offered, which has been proposed to educate urban, diverse, undergraduate students about climate change at the introductory level. The course has been approved to fulfill two general college requirements, a natural sciences requirement that focuses on the scientific method, as well as a global diversity requirement. This course presents the science behind global climate change from an Earth systems and atmospheric science perspective. These concepts then provide the basis to explore the effect of global warming on regions throughout the world. Climate change has been taught as a sub-topic in other courses in the past solely using scientific concepts, with little success in altering the climate change misconceptions of the students. This pilot course will see if new, innovative projects described below can make more of an impact on the students' views of climate change. Results of the successes or failures of these projects will be reported, as well as results of a pre- and post-course questionnaire on climate change given to students taking the course. Students in the class will pair off and choose a global region or country that they will research, write papers on, and then represent in four class discussions spaced throughout the semester. The first report will include details on the current climate of their region and how the climate shapes that region's society and culture. The second report will discuss how that region is contributing to climate change and/or sequestering greenhouse gases. Thirdly, students will discuss observed and predicted changes in that region's climate and what impact it has had, and could have, on their society. Lastly, students will report on what role their region has played in mitigating climate change, any policies their region may have implemented, and how their region can or cannot adapt to future climate changes. They will also try to get a feel for the region's attitude towards climate change science, policy, and the stances taken by other regions on climate change. The professor will provide a model of integrative research using the U.S. as a focus, and on discussion days, prompt a sort of United Nations discussion on each of these topics with the intention of having the students look at climate change from a different point of view that contrasts their current U.S.-centric view, as well as realize the interdependence of regions particularly in regards to climate change.

The role of local sea surface temperature pattern changes in shaping climate change in the North Atlantic sector

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hand, Ralf; Keenlyside, Noel S.; Omrani, Nour-Eddine; Bader, Jürgen; Greatbatch, Richard J.

2018-03-01

Beside its global effects, climate change is manifested in many regionally pronounced features mainly resulting from changes in the oceanic and atmospheric circulation. Here we investigate the influence of the North Atlantic SST on shaping the winter-time response to global warming. Our results are based on a long-term climate projection with the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) to investigate the influence of North Atlantic sea surface temperature pattern changes on shaping the atmospheric climate change signal. In sensitivity experiments with the model's atmospheric component we decompose the response into components controlled by the local SST structure and components controlled by global/remote changes. MPI-ESM simulates a global warming response in SST similar to other climate models: there is a warming minimum—or "warming hole"—in the subpolar North Atlantic, and the sharp SST gradients associated with the Gulf Stream and the North Atlantic Current shift northward by a few a degrees. Over the warming hole, global warming causes a relatively weak increase in rainfall. Beyond this, our experiments show more localized effects, likely resulting from future SST gradient changes in the North Atlantic. This includes a significant precipitation decrease to the south of the Gulf Stream despite increased underlying SSTs. Since this region is characterised by a strong band of precipitation in the current climate, this is contrary to the usual case that wet regions become wetter and dry regions become drier in a warmer climate. A moisture budget analysis identifies a complex interplay of various processes in the region of modified SST gradients: reduced surface winds cause a decrease in evaporation; and thermodynamic, modified atmospheric eddy transports, and coastal processes cause a change in the moisture convergence. The changes in the the North Atlantic storm track are mainly controlled by the non-regional changes in the forcing. The impact of the local SST pattern changes on regions outside the North Atlantic is small in our setup.

Estimating climate change effects on net primary production of rangelands in the United States

Treesearch

Matthew C. Reeves; Adam L. Moreno; Karen E. Bagne; Steven W. Running

2014-01-01

The potential effects of climate change on net primary productivity (NPP) of U.S. rangelands were evaluated using estimated climate regimes from the A1B, A2 and B2 global change scenarios imposed on the biogeochemical cycling model, Biome-BGC from 2001 to 2100. Temperature, precipitation, vapor pressure deficit, day length, solar radiation, CO2 enrichment and nitrogen...

Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS): status of implementation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lucio, Filipe

2014-05-01

The GFCS is a global partnership of governments and UN and international agencies that produce and use climate information and services. WMO, which is leading the initiative in collaboration with UN ISDR, WHO, WFP, FAO, UNESCO, UNDP and other UN and international partners are pooling their expertise and resources in order to co-design and co-produce knowledge, information and services to support effective decision making in response to climate variability and change in four priority areas (agriculture and fod security, water, health and disaster risk reduction). To address the entire value chain for the effective production and application of climate services the GFCS main components or pillars are being implemented, namely: • User Interface Platform — to provide ways for climate service users and providers to interact to identify needs and capacities and improve the effectiveness of the Framework and its climate services; • Climate Services Information System — to produce and distribute climate data, products and information according to the needs of users and to agreed standards; • Observations and Monitoring - to generate the necessary data for climate services according to agreed standards; • Research, Modelling and Prediction — to harness science capabilities and results and develop appropriate tools to meet the needs of climate services; • Capacity Building — to support the systematic development of the institutions, infrastructure and human resources needed for effective climate services. Activities are being implemented in various countries in Africa, the Caribbean and South pacific Islands. This paper will provide details on the status of implementation of the GFCS worldwider.

Current Climate Variability & Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Diem, J.; Criswell, B.; Elliott, W. C.

2013-12-01

Current Climate Variability & Change is the ninth among a suite of ten interconnected, sequential labs that address all 39 climate-literacy concepts in the U.S. Global Change Research Program's Climate Literacy: The Essential Principles of Climate Sciences. The labs are as follows: Solar Radiation & Seasons, Stratospheric Ozone, The Troposphere, The Carbon Cycle, Global Surface Temperature, Glacial-Interglacial Cycles, Temperature Changes over the Past Millennium, Climates & Ecosystems, Current Climate Variability & Change, and Future Climate Change. All are inquiry-based, on-line products designed in a way that enables students to construct their own knowledge of a topic. Questions representative of various levels of Webb's depth of knowledge are embedded in each lab. In addition to the embedded questions, each lab has three or four essential questions related to the driving questions for the lab suite. These essential questions are presented as statements at the beginning of the material to represent the lab objectives, and then are asked at the end as questions to function as a summative assessment. For example, the Current Climate Variability & Change is built around these essential questions: (1) What has happened to the global temperature at the Earth's surface, in the middle troposphere, and in the lower stratosphere over the past several decades?; (2) What is the most likely cause of the changes in global temperature over the past several decades and what evidence is there that this is the cause?; and (3) What have been some of the clearly defined effects of the change in global temperature on the atmosphere and other spheres of the Earth system? An introductory Prezi allows the instructor to assess students' prior knowledge in relation to these questions, while also providing 'hooks' to pique their interest related to the topic. The lab begins by presenting examples of and key differences between climate variability (e.g., Mt. Pinatubo eruption) and climate change. The next section guides students through the exploration of temporal changes in global temperature from the surface to the lower stratosphere. Students discover that there has been global warming over the past several decades, and the subsequent section allows them to consider solar radiation and greenhouse gases as possible causes of this warming. Students then zoom in on different latitudinal zones to examine changes in temperature for each zone and hypothesize about why one zone may have warmed more than others. The final section, prior to the answering of the essential questions, is an examination of the following effects of the current change in temperatures: loss of sea ice; rise of sea level; loss of permafrost loss; and moistening of the atmosphere. The lab addresses 14 climate-literacy concepts and all seven climate-literacy principles through data and images that are mainly NASA products. It focuses on the satellite era of climate data; therefore, 1979 is the typical starting year for most datasets used by students. Additionally, all time-series analysis end with the latest year with full-year data availability; thus, the climate variability and trends truly are 'current.'

DOE Scientists Contribute to 2007 Nobel Peace Prize Research about Climate

Science.gov Websites

and resources were devoted to modeling the interactive effects of consequences, that is to say effects are more immediate and profound than previously anticipated, and old questions (are humans the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, DOE Technical Report, May 2005 Climate Effects of Global Land Cover

Black Carbon and Precipitation: An Energetics Perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sand, M.; Samset, B. H.; Stjern, C.; Tsigaridis, K.; Myhre, G.

2017-12-01

Airborne Black Carbon (BC) can affect precipitation rates, both globally and regionally, through a number of mechanisms. Many studies have investigated the impact of the direct radiative effect, indirect modification of cloud properties and rapid adjustments (the semidirect effect), individually or in combination, but the net climate impacts of anthropogenic and natural BC are still highly uncertain. A particular problem is the complex behavior of BC-climate interactions with altitude. Since the atmospheric residence time, ageing and removal processes for BC are also poorly known, differences in vertical BC concentration profiles between models and intercomparison experiments greatly complicate the picture. Recently, precipitation changes predicted by climate models have been studied in the framework of changes to the global and regional energy balance. Here, we employ such an energetics perspective to simulations of BC inserted at isolated altitudes, in two major climate models (NCAR CESM1, NASA GISS). We show the resulting regional and global changes to precipitation, and analyze it in both in terms of individual components of radiative forcing, and the atmospheric energy balance. The results are presented in the context of recent literature.

Global climate change and children's health.

PubMed

Shea, Katherine M

2007-11-01

There is broad scientific consensus that Earth's climate is warming rapidly and at an accelerating rate. Human activities, primarily the burning of fossil fuels, are very likely (>90% probability) to be the main cause of this warming. Climate-sensitive changes in ecosystems are already being observed, and fundamental, potentially irreversible, ecological changes may occur in the coming decades. Conservative environmental estimates of the impact of climate changes that are already in process indicate that they will result in numerous health effects to children. The nature and extent of these changes will be greatly affected by actions taken or not taken now at the global level. Physicians have written on the projected effects of climate change on public health, but little has been written specifically on anticipated effects of climate change on children's health. Children represent a particularly vulnerable group that is likely to suffer disproportionately from both direct and indirect adverse health effects of climate change. Pediatric health care professionals should understand these threats, anticipate their effects on children's health, and participate as children's advocates for strong mitigation and adaptation strategies now. Any solutions that address climate change must be developed within the context of overall sustainability (the use of resources by the current generation to meet current needs while ensuring that future generations will be able to meet their needs). Pediatric health care professionals can be leaders in a move away from a traditional focus on disease prevention to a broad, integrated focus on sustainability as synonymous with health. This policy statement is supported by a technical report that examines in some depth the nature of the problem of climate change, likely effects on children's health as a result of climate change, and the critical importance of responding promptly and aggressively to reduce activities that are contributing to this change.

Controls on the Archean climate system investigated with a global climate model.

PubMed

Wolf, E T; Toon, O B

2014-03-01

The most obvious means of resolving the faint young Sun paradox is to invoke large quantities of greenhouse gases, namely, CO2 and CH4. However, numerous changes to the Archean climate system have been suggested that may have yielded additional warming, thus easing the required greenhouse gas burden. Here, we use a three-dimensional climate model to examine some of the factors that controlled Archean climate. We examine changes to Earth's rotation rate, surface albedo, cloud properties, and total atmospheric pressure following proposals from the recent literature. While the effects of increased planetary rotation rate on surface temperature are insignificant, plausible changes to the surface albedo, cloud droplet number concentrations, and atmospheric nitrogen inventory may each impart global mean warming of 3-7 K. While none of these changes present a singular solution to the faint young Sun paradox, a combination can have a large impact on climate. Global mean surface temperatures at or above 288 K could easily have been maintained throughout the entirety of the Archean if plausible changes to clouds, surface albedo, and nitrogen content occurred.

Foraminiferal Range Expansions: The Mediterranean Sea as a natural laboratory for climate induced invasions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hortense Mouanga, Gloria; Langer, Martin R.

2015-04-01

Climate change and biological invasions are key processes that modify biodiversity. One of the most severely affected areas of global change is the Mediterranean Sea, where global warming and the opening of the Suez Canal triggered a mass invasion of tropical Red Sea taxa into Mediterranean territories. Climate models prognosticate that the Mediterranean Sea will be one of the most affected ocean regions and may thus serve as a natural laboratory of future global changes. Among the key taxa that are rapidly expanding their latitudinal range in the Mediterranean Sea are symbiont-bearing foraminifera of the genus Amphistegina. Their range expansion strongly correlates with rising sea surface temperatures and mirrors processes of global change. Amphisteginid foraminifera are among the most prolific foraminiferal species and contribute significantly to shallow-water carbonate sediments. Given their prominent environmental role, rapid biogeographic range expansion, and impact on native ecosystems, amphisteginid range expansion and invasion into new territory are likely to trigger changes in ecosystem functioning. Among the uncertainties, it is not known whether all parts of the Mediterranean will be affected equally and to what extent amphisteginid invasions will impact native biotas. We have initiated a new baseline study to explore the effects of invasive amphisteginids on native foraminiferal biotas and to monitor expansion rates and effects on ecosystem functioning along the current range expansion front. We will present new data on recent shift along the range expansion front and discuss cascading effects on community structures and species richness of native foraminiferal biotas. The magnitude and effects that climate change will have on the Mediterranean foraminiferal faunas may ultimately serve as an example of what would happen along expansion fronts in global oceans.

Climates of U.S. cities in the 21st century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krayenhoff, E. S.; Georgescu, M.; Moustaoui, M.

2017-12-01

Urban climates are projected to warm over the 21st century due to global climate change and urban development. To assess this projected warming, Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model simulations are performed at 20 km resolution over the contiguous U.S. for three 10-year periods: contemporary (2000-2009), mid-century (2050-2059), and end-of-century (2090-2099). Urban land use projections are derived from the EPA's ICLUS data set, and future climate projections are based on two global climate models and two greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. The potential for design implementations such as `green' roofs and high albedo roofs to offset the projected warming is considered. Effects of urban expansion, urban densification and infrastructure adaptation on urban climate are compared over the century. Assessment considers impacts at both seasonal and diurnal scales, isolates fair weather impacts, and considers multiple climate variables: air temperature, precipitation, humidity, wind speed, and surface energy budget partitioning.

Climate change impacts on global food security.

PubMed

Wheeler, Tim; von Braun, Joachim

2013-08-02

Climate change could potentially interrupt progress toward a world without hunger. A robust and coherent global pattern is discernible of the impacts of climate change on crop productivity that could have consequences for food availability. The stability of whole food systems may be at risk under climate change because of short-term variability in supply. However, the potential impact is less clear at regional scales, but it is likely that climate variability and change will exacerbate food insecurity in areas currently vulnerable to hunger and undernutrition. Likewise, it can be anticipated that food access and utilization will be affected indirectly via collateral effects on household and individual incomes, and food utilization could be impaired by loss of access to drinking water and damage to health. The evidence supports the need for considerable investment in adaptation and mitigation actions toward a "climate-smart food system" that is more resilient to climate change influences on food security.

Major threats of pollution and climate change to global coastal ecosystems and enhanced management for sustainability.

PubMed

Lu, Yonglong; Yuan, Jingjing; Lu, Xiaotian; Su, Chao; Zhang, Yueqing; Wang, Chenchen; Cao, Xianghui; Li, Qifeng; Su, Jilan; Ittekkot, Venugopalan; Garbutt, Richard Angus; Bush, Simon; Fletcher, Stephen; Wagey, Tonny; Kachur, Anatolii; Sweijd, Neville

2018-08-01

Coastal zone is of great importance in the provision of various valuable ecosystem services. However, it is also sensitive and vulnerable to environmental changes due to high human populations and interactions between the land and ocean. Major threats of pollution from over enrichment of nutrients, increasing metals and persistent organic pollutants (POPs), and climate change have led to severe ecological degradation in the coastal zone, while few studies have focused on the combined impacts of pollution and climate change on the coastal ecosystems at the global level. A global overview of nutrients, metals, POPs, and major environmental changes due to climate change and their impacts on coastal ecosystems was carried out in this study. Coasts of the Eastern Atlantic and Western Pacific were hotspots of concentrations of several pollutants, and mostly affected by warming climate. These hotspots shared the same features of large populations, heavy industry and (semi-) closed sea. Estimation of coastal ocean capital, integrated management of land-ocean interaction in the coastal zone, enhancement of integrated global observation system, and coastal ecosystem-based management can play effective roles in promoting sustainable management of coastal marine ecosystems. Enhanced management from the perspective of mitigating pollution and climate change was proposed. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The global land rush and climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davis, Kyle Frankel; Rulli, Maria Cristina; D'Odorico, Paolo

2015-08-01

Climate change poses a serious global challenge in the face of rapidly increasing human demand for energy and food. A recent phenomenon in which climate change may play an important role is the acquisition of large tracts of land in the developing world by governments and corporations. In the target countries, where land is relatively inexpensive, the potential to increase crop yields is generally high and property rights are often poorly defined. By acquiring land, investors can realize large profits and countries can substantially alter the land and water resources under their control, thereby changing their outlook for meeting future demand. While the drivers, actors, and impacts involved with land deals have received substantial attention in the literature, we propose that climate change plays an important yet underappreciated role, both through its direct effects on agricultural production and through its influence on mitigative or adaptive policy decisions. Drawing from various literature sources as well as a new global database on reported land deals, we trace the evolution of the global land rush and highlight prominent examples in which the role of climate change is evident. We find that climate change—both historical and anticipated—interacts substantially with drivers of land acquisitions, having important implications for the resilience of communities in targeted areas. As a result of this synthesis, we ultimately contend that considerations of climate change should be integrated into future policy decisions relating to the large-scale land acquisitions.

Implications of global climate change for housing, human settlements and public health.

PubMed

Hales, Simon; Baker, Michael; Howden-Chapman, Philippa; Menne, Bettina; Woodruff, Rosalie; Woodward, Alistair

2007-01-01

Global climate change has profound implications for human societies. The present---ecologically unsustainable--trajectory of human development fails to provide for the basic needs of a substantial fraction of the global population, while diminishing the prospects for future generations. Human-caused climate change has already begun to affect weather patterns, physical and biological phenomena, and vulnerable human communities. Because the social processes of production and consumption have their own momentum, and because carbon dioxide has a long atmospheric lifetime, further climate change is inevitable over the coming century, even allowing for the adoption of mitigation measures. This situation implies that we should also try to reduce, and where possible to prevent, the adverse effects of climate changes by planned adaptation. Will human settlements be able to provide a healthy living environment and shelter from extreme climate events, such as cyclones and heat waves? In this paper, we review the nexus between human health, climate change, and the planning of housing and human settlements. We conclude that adapting to a rapidly changing global environment will be a major challenge, in the context of increasing population and per capita consumption, without increasing pressures on natural systems. Energy-efficient cities and the creation of opportunities for poor countries will be important elements of people centered, ecologically sustainable, development in the twenty-first century.

Nonlinear, interacting responses to climate limit grassland production under global change.

PubMed

Zhu, Kai; Chiariello, Nona R; Tobeck, Todd; Fukami, Tadashi; Field, Christopher B

2016-09-20

Global changes in climate, atmospheric composition, and pollutants are altering ecosystems and the goods and services they provide. Among approaches for predicting ecosystem responses, long-term observations and manipulative experiments can be powerful approaches for resolving single-factor and interactive effects of global changes on key metrics such as net primary production (NPP). Here we combine both approaches, developing multidimensional response surfaces for NPP based on the longest-running, best-replicated, most-multifactor global-change experiment at the ecosystem scale-a 17-y study of California grassland exposed to full-factorial warming, added precipitation, elevated CO2, and nitrogen deposition. Single-factor and interactive effects were not time-dependent, enabling us to analyze each year as a separate realization of the experiment and extract NPP as a continuous function of global-change factors. We found a ridge-shaped response surface in which NPP is humped (unimodal) in response to temperature and precipitation when CO2 and nitrogen are ambient, with peak NPP rising under elevated CO2 or nitrogen but also shifting to lower temperatures. Our results suggest that future climate change will push this ecosystem away from conditions that maximize NPP, but with large year-to-year variability.

Global Change and the Function and Distribution of Wetlands

USGS Publications Warehouse

Middleton, Beth A.

2012-01-01

The Global Change Ecology and Wetlands book series will highlight the latest research from the world leaders in the field of climate change in wetlands. Global Change and the Function and Distribution of Wetlands highlights information of importance to wetland ecologists.  The chapters include syntheses of international studies on the effects of drought on function and regeneration in wetlands, sea level rise and the distribution of mangrove swamps, former distributions of swamp species and future lessons from paleoecology, and shifts in atmospheric emissions across geographical regions in wetlands.  Overall, the book will contribute to a better understanding of the potential effects of climate change on world wetland distribution and function.

Modelling fast spreading patterns of airborne infectious diseases using complex networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brenner, Frank; Marwan, Norbert; Hoffmann, Peter

2017-04-01

The pandemics of SARS (2002/2003) and H1N1 (2009) have impressively shown the potential of epidemic outbreaks of infectious diseases in a world that is strongly connected. Global air travelling established an easy and fast opportunity for pathogens to migrate globally in only a few days. This made epidemiological prediction harder. By understanding this complex development and its link to climate change we can suggest actions to control a part of global human health affairs. In this study we combine the following data components to simulate the outbreak of an airborne infectious disease that is directly transmitted from human to human: em{Global Air Traffic Network (from openflights.org) with information on airports, airport location, direct flight connection, airplane type} em{Global population dataset (from SEDAC, NASA)} em{Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) compartmental model to simulate disease spreading in the vicinity of airports. A modified Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) model to analyze the impact of the incubation period.} em{WATCH-Forcing-Data-ERA-Interim (WFDEI) climate data: temperature, specific humidity, surface air pressure, and water vapor pressure} These elements are implemented into a complex network. Nodes inside the network represent airports. Each single node is equipped with its own SIR/SEIR compartmental model with node specific attributes. Edges between those nodes represent direct flight connections that allow infected individuals to move between linked nodes. Therefore the interaction of the set of unique SIR models creates the model dynamics we will analyze. To better figure out the influence on climate change on disease spreading patterns, we focus on Influenza-like-Illnesses (ILI). The transmission rate of ILI has a dependency on climate parameters like humidity and temperature. Even small changes of environmental variables can trigger significant differences in the global outbreak behavior. Apart from the direct effect of climate change on the transmission of airborne diseases, there are indirect ramifications that alter spreading patterns. An example is seasonal human mobility behavior which will change with varied climate conditions. The direct and indirect effects of climate change on disease spreading patterns will be discussed in this study.

Climate mitigation and the future of tropical landscapes.

PubMed

Thomson, Allison M; Calvin, Katherine V; Chini, Louise P; Hurtt, George; Edmonds, James A; Bond-Lamberty, Ben; Frolking, Steve; Wise, Marshall A; Janetos, Anthony C

2010-11-16

Land-use change to meet 21st-century demands for food, fuel, and fiber will depend on many interactive factors, including global policies limiting anthropogenic climate change and realized improvements in agricultural productivity. Climate-change mitigation policies will alter the decision-making environment for land management, and changes in agricultural productivity will influence cultivated land expansion. We explore to what extent future increases in agricultural productivity might offset conversion of tropical forest lands to crop lands under a climate mitigation policy and a contrasting no-policy scenario in a global integrated assessment model. The Global Change Assessment Model is applied here to simulate a mitigation policy that stabilizes radiative forcing at 4.5 W m(-2) (approximately 526 ppm CO(2)) in the year 2100 by introducing a price for all greenhouse gas emissions, including those from land use. These scenarios are simulated with several cases of future agricultural productivity growth rates and the results downscaled to produce gridded maps of potential land-use change. We find that tropical forests are preserved near their present-day extent, and bioenergy crops emerge as an effective mitigation option, only in cases in which a climate mitigation policy that includes an economic price for land-use emissions is in place, and in which agricultural productivity growth continues throughout the century. We find that idealized land-use emissions price assumptions are most effective at limiting deforestation, even when cropland area must increase to meet future food demand. These findings emphasize the importance of accounting for feedbacks from land-use change emissions in global climate change mitigation strategies.

Integrated effects of air pollution and climate change on forests: a northern hemisphere perspective.

PubMed

Bytnerowicz, Andrzej; Omasa, Kenji; Paoletti, Elena

2007-06-01

Many air pollutants and greenhouse gases have common sources, contribute to radiative balance, interact in the atmosphere, and affect ecosystems. The impacts on forest ecosystems have been traditionally treated separately for air pollution and climate change. However, the combined effects may significantly differ from a sum of separate effects. We review the links between air pollution and climate change and their interactive effects on northern hemisphere forests. A simultaneous addressing of the air pollution and climate change effects on forests may result in more effective research, management and monitoring as well as better integration of local, national and global environmental policies.

Ecological risk Evaluation and Green Infrastructure planning for coping with global climate change, a case study of Shanghai, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Pengyao; Xiao, He; Li, Xiang; Hu, Wenhao; Gu, Shoubai; Yu, Zhenrong

2018-01-01

Coping with various ecological risks caused by extreme weather events of global climate change has become an important issue in regional planning, and storm water management for sustainable development. In this paper, taking Shanghai, China as a case study, four potential ecological risks were identified including flood disaster, sea-source disaster, urban heat island effect, and land subsidence. Based on spatial database, the spatial variation of these four ecological risks was evaluated, and the planning area was divided into seven responding regions with different green infrastructure strategy. The methodology developed in this study combining ecological risk evaluation with spatial regionalization planning could contribute to coping with global climate change.

Assessing Impacts of Climate Change on Food Security Worldwide

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rosenzweig, Cynthia E.; Antle, John; Elliott, Joshua

2015-01-01

The combination of a warming Earth and an increasing population will likely strain the world's food systems in the coming decades. Experts involved with the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) focus on quantifying the changes through time. AgMIP, a program begun in 2010, involves about 800 climate scientists, economists, nutritionists, information technology specialists, and crop and livestock experts. In mid-September 2015, the Aspen Global Change Institute convened an AgMIP workshop to draft plans and protocols for assessing global- and regional-scale modeling of crops, livestock, economics, and nutrition across major agricultural regions worldwide. The goal of this Coordinated Global and Regional Integrated Assessments (CGRA) project is to characterize climate effects on large- and small-scale farming systems.

The changing effects of Alaska's boreal forest on the climate system

Treesearch

E.S. Euskirchen; A.D. McGuire; F.S. Chapin; T.S. Rupp

2010-01-01

In the boreal forests of Alaska, recent changes in climate have influenced the exchange of trace gases, water, and energy between these forests and the atmosphere. These changes in the structure and function of boreal forests can then feed back to impact regional and global climates. We examine the type and magnitude of the climate feedbacks from boreal forests in...

Supporting Students' Learning and Socioscientific Reasoning about Climate Change--The Effect of Computer-Based Concept Mapping Scaffolds

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Eggert, Sabina; Nitsch, Anne; Boone, William J.; Nückles, Matthias; Bögeholz, Susanne

2017-01-01

Climate change is one of the most challenging problems facing today's global society (e.g., IPCC 2013). While climate change is a widely covered topic in the media, and abundant information is made available through the internet, the causes and consequences of climate change in its full complexity are difficult for individuals, especially…

76 FR 78601 - Endangered and Threatened Wildlife and Plants; 90-Day Finding on a Petition To List the Western...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-12-19

... climate change and provides several references about the effects of climate change in general to support this claim. The petition explains that human-induced climate change is causing global increases of...; Fagre 2005, p. 1; Hall and Fagre 2003, p. 139; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007a, p...

Global mortality consequences of climate change accounting for adaptation costs and benefits

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rising, J. A.; Jina, A.; Carleton, T.; Hsiang, S. M.; Greenstone, M.

2017-12-01

Empirically-based and plausibly causal estimates of the damages of climate change are greatly needed to inform rapidly developing global and local climate policies. To accurately reflect the costs of climate change, it is essential to estimate how much populations will adapt to a changing climate, yet adaptation remains one of the least understood aspects of social responses to climate. In this paper, we develop and implement a novel methodology to estimate climate impacts on mortality rates. We assemble comprehensive sub-national panel data in 41 countries that account for 56% of the world's population, and combine them with high resolution daily climate data to flexibly estimate the causal effect of temperature on mortality. We find the impacts of temperature on mortality have a U-shaped response; both hot days and cold days cause excess mortality. However, this average response obscures substantial heterogeneity, as populations are differentially adapted to extreme temperatures. Our empirical model allows us to extrapolate response functions across the entire globe, as well as across time, using a range of economic, population, and climate change scenarios. We also develop a methodology to capture not only the benefits of adaptation, but also its costs. We combine these innovations to produce the first causal, micro-founded, global, empirically-derived climate damage function for human health. We project that by 2100, business-as-usual climate change is likely to incur mortality-only costs that amount to approximately 5% of global GDP for 5°C degrees of warming above pre-industrial levels. On average across model runs, we estimate that the upper bound on adaptation costs amounts to 55% of the total damages.

Biophysical climate impacts of recent changes in global forest cover.

PubMed

Alkama, Ramdane; Cescatti, Alessandro

2016-02-05

Changes in forest cover affect the local climate by modulating the land-atmosphere fluxes of energy and water. The magnitude of this biophysical effect is still debated in the scientific community and currently ignored in climate treaties. Here we present an observation-driven assessment of the climate impacts of recent forest losses and gains, based on Earth observations of global forest cover and land surface temperatures. Our results show that forest losses amplify the diurnal temperature variation and increase the mean and maximum air temperature, with the largest signal in arid zones, followed by temperate, tropical, and boreal zones. In the decade 2003-2012, variations of forest cover generated a mean biophysical warming on land corresponding to about 18% of the global biogeochemical signal due to CO2 emission from land-use change. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Climate Impacts From a Removal of Anthropogenic Aerosol Emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samset, B. H.; Sand, M.; Smith, C. J.; Bauer, S. E.; Forster, P. M.; Fuglestvedt, J. S.; Osprey, S.; Schleussner, C.-F.

2018-01-01

Limiting global warming to 1.5 or 2.0°C requires strong mitigation of anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Concurrently, emissions of anthropogenic aerosols will decline, due to coemission with GHG, and measures to improve air quality. However, the combined climate effect of GHG and aerosol emissions over the industrial era is poorly constrained. Here we show the climate impacts from removing present-day anthropogenic aerosol emissions and compare them to the impacts from moderate GHG-dominated global warming. Removing aerosols induces a global mean surface heating of 0.5-1.1°C, and precipitation increase of 2.0-4.6%. Extreme weather indices also increase. We find a higher sensitivity of extreme events to aerosol reductions, per degree of surface warming, in particular over the major aerosol emission regions. Under near-term warming, we find that regional climate change will depend strongly on the balance between aerosol and GHG forcing.

Influence of global climate change on chemical fate and bioaccumulation: the role of multimedia models.

PubMed

Gouin, Todd; Armitage, James M; Cousins, Ian T; Muir, Derek C G; Ng, Carla A; Reid, Liisa; Tao, Shu

2013-01-01

Multimedia environmental fate models are valuable tools for investigating potential changes associated with global climate change, particularly because thermodynamic forcing on partitioning behavior as well as diffusive and nondiffusive exchange processes are implicitly considered. Similarly, food-web bioaccumulation models are capable of integrating the net effect of changes associated with factors such as temperature, growth rates, feeding preferences, and partitioning behavior on bioaccumulation potential. For the climate change scenarios considered in the present study, such tools indicate that alterations to exposure concentrations are typically within a factor of 2 of the baseline output. Based on an appreciation for the uncertainty in model parameters and baseline output, the authors recommend caution when interpreting or speculating on the relative importance of global climate change with respect to how changes caused by it will influence chemical fate and bioavailability. Copyright © 2012 SETAC.

Global Climate Change Adaptation Priorities for Biodiversity and Food Security

PubMed Central

Hannah, Lee; Ikegami, Makihiko; Hole, David G.; Seo, Changwan; Butchart, Stuart H. M.; Peterson, A. Townsend; Roehrdanz, Patrick R.

2013-01-01

International policy is placing increasing emphasis on adaptation to climate change, including the allocation of new funds to assist adaptation efforts. Climate change adaptation funding may be most effective where it meets integrated goals, but global geographic priorities based on multiple development and ecological criteria are not well characterized. Here we show that human and natural adaptation needs related to maintaining agricultural productivity and ecosystem integrity intersect in ten major areas globally, providing a coherent set of international priorities for adaptation funding. An additional seven regional areas are identified as worthy of additional study. The priority areas are locations where changes in crop suitability affecting impoverished farmers intersect with changes in ranges of restricted-range species. Agreement among multiple climate models and emissions scenarios suggests that these priorities are robust. Adaptation funding directed to these areas could simultaneously address multiple international policy goals, including poverty reduction, protecting agricultural production and safeguarding ecosystem services. PMID:23991125

Global climate change adaptation priorities for biodiversity and food security.

PubMed

Hannah, Lee; Ikegami, Makihiko; Hole, David G; Seo, Changwan; Butchart, Stuart H M; Peterson, A Townsend; Roehrdanz, Patrick R

2013-01-01

International policy is placing increasing emphasis on adaptation to climate change, including the allocation of new funds to assist adaptation efforts. Climate change adaptation funding may be most effective where it meets integrated goals, but global geographic priorities based on multiple development and ecological criteria are not well characterized. Here we show that human and natural adaptation needs related to maintaining agricultural productivity and ecosystem integrity intersect in ten major areas globally, providing a coherent set of international priorities for adaptation funding. An additional seven regional areas are identified as worthy of additional study. The priority areas are locations where changes in crop suitability affecting impoverished farmers intersect with changes in ranges of restricted-range species. Agreement among multiple climate models and emissions scenarios suggests that these priorities are robust. Adaptation funding directed to these areas could simultaneously address multiple international policy goals, including poverty reduction, protecting agricultural production and safeguarding ecosystem services.

Global change impacts on wheat production along an environmental gradient in south Australia.

PubMed

Reyenga, P J; Howden, S M; Meinke, H; Hall, W B

2001-09-01

Crop production is likely to change in the future as a result of global changes in CO2 levels in the atmosphere and climate. APSIM, a cropping system model, was used to investigate the potential impact of these changes on the distribution of cropping along an environmental transect in south Australia. The effects of several global change scenarios were studied, including: (1) historical climate and CO2 levels, (2) historic climate with elevated CO2 (700 ppm), (3) warmer climate (+2.4 degrees C) +700 ppm CO2, (4) drier climate (-15% summer, -20% winter rainfall) +2.4 degrees C +700 ppm CO2, (5) wetter climate (+10% summer rainfall) +2.4 degrees C +700 ppm CO2 and (6) most likely climate changes (+1.8 degrees C, -8% annual rainfall) +700 ppm CO2. Based on an analysis of the current cropping boundary, a criterion of 1 t/ha was used to assess potential changes in the boundary under global change. Under most scenarios, the cropping boundary moved northwards with a further 240,000 ha potentially being available for cropping. The exception was the reduced rainfall scenario (4), which resulted in a small retreat of cropping from its current extent. However, the impact of this scenario may only be small (in the order of 10,000-20,000 ha reduction in cropping area). Increases in CO2 levels over the current climate record have resulted in small but significant increases in simulated yields. Model limitations are discussed.

The Vulnerability of Forest Ecosystems of Armenia to the Global Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khachatryan, S.

2009-05-01

Climate changes characterized as global warming can lead to irreversible effects on regional and global scales, such as drought, pest attacks, diseases, excessive forest fires, and climate driven extinction of numerous animal and plant species. We assess the issues that the development of forestry in Armenia faces, where the climate change is causing the landscape zone borders in the territory to shift. This will have a significant impact on the most vulnerable tree species in Armenia. An increase in climate aridity and intensification of desertification can be expected under the projected escalated temperatures and reduced precipitation. For example, we can consider average annual temperature of the Ijevan meteorological station (located in forestry region) for the period of 1936-2008. We analyze the vulnerability of forest ecosystems in Armenia to climatic and anthropogenic factors for the period of 1936-2008. Temperature and precipitation data from 25 meteorological stations in the territory of Armenia is studied for the period of 1936-2008. The dynamic of average temperature annual anomalies are revealed. The deviations of temperature and precipitation from the norms (average for 1961-1990) are evaluated for the period of study. We discuss the reasons for the abrupt increase in temperature and decrease in precipitation. Based on the dataset, the possible near future impact of global climate change on the Armenian forest ecosystems is discussed, and measures on the adaptation to the adverse consequences that climate change has on forests are offered.

Effects of Global Change on U.S. Urban Areas: Vulnerabilities, Impacts, and Adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quattrochi, D. A.; Wilbanks, T. J.; Kirshen, P. H.; Romero-Lankao, P.; Rosenzweig, C. E.; Ruth, M.; Solecki, W.; Tarr, J. A.

2007-05-01

Human settlements, both large and small, are where the vast majority of people on the Earth live. Expansion of cities both in population and areal extent, is a relentless process that will accelerate in the 21st century. As a consequence of urban growth both in the United States and around the globe, it is important to develop an understanding of how urbanization will affect the local and regional environment. Of equal importance, however, is the assessment of how cities will be impacted by the looming prospects of global climate change and climate variability. The potential impacts of climate change and variability has recently been enunciated by the IPCC's "Climate Change 2007" report. Moreover, the U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) is preparing a series of "Synthesis and Assessment Products" (SAP) reports to support informed discussion and decision making regarding climate change and variability by policy makers, resource managers, stakeholders, the media, and the general public. We are working on a chapter of SAP 4.6 ("Analysis of the Effects of Global Chance on Human Health and Welfare and Human Systems") wherein we wish to describe the effects of global climate change on human settlements. This paper will present the thoughts and ideas that are being formulated for our SAP report that relate to what vulnerabilities and impacts will occur, what adaptation responses may take place, and what possible effects on settlement patterns and characteristics will potentially arise, on human settlements in the U.S. as a result of climate change and climate variability. We wish to present these ideas and concepts as a "work in progress" that are subject to several rounds of review, and we invite comments from listeners at this session on the rationale and veracity of our thoughts. Additionally, we wish to explore how technology such as remote sensing data coupled with modeling, can be employed as synthesis tools for deriving insight across a spectrum of impacts (e.g. public health, urban planning for mitigation strategies) on how cities can cope and adapt to climate change and variability. This latter point parallels the concepts and ideas presented in the U.S. National Academy of Sciences, Decadal Survey report on "Earth Science Applications from Space: National Imperatives for the Next Decade and Beyond" wherein the analysis of the impacts of climate change and variability, human health, and land use change are listed as key areas for development of future Earth observing remote sensing systems.

Solar irradiance reduction to counteract radiative forcing from a quadrupling of CO2: climate responses simulated by four earth system models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmidt, H.; Alterskjær, K.; Karam, D. Bou; Boucher, O.; Jones, A.; Kristjánsson, J. E.; Niemeier, U.; Schulz, M.; Aaheim, A.; Benduhn, F.; Lawrence, M.; Timmreck, C.

2012-06-01

In this study we compare the response of four state-of-the-art Earth system models to climate engineering under scenario G1 of two model intercomparison projects: GeoMIP (Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project) and IMPLICC (EU project "Implications and risks of engineering solar radiation to limit climate change"). In G1, the radiative forcing from an instantaneous quadrupling of the CO2 concentration, starting from the preindustrial level, is balanced by a reduction of the solar constant. Model responses to the two counteracting forcings in G1 are compared to the preindustrial climate in terms of global means and regional patterns and their robustness. While the global mean surface air temperature in G1 remains almost unchanged compared to the control simulation, the meridional temperature gradient is reduced in all models. Another robust response is the global reduction of precipitation with strong effects in particular over North and South America and northern Eurasia. In comparison to the climate response to a quadrupling of CO2 alone, the temperature responses are small in experiment G1. Precipitation responses are, however, in many regions of comparable magnitude but globally of opposite sign.

Environmental stability and the evolution of cooperative breeding in hornbills

PubMed Central

Gonzalez, Juan-Carlos T.; Sheldon, Ben C.; Tobias, Joseph A.

2013-01-01

Reproductive cooperation in social animals has been the focus of intensive research, yet the role of environmental factors in promoting such cooperation remains uncertain. A recent global analysis suggested that cooperative breeding in birds is a ‘bet-hedging’ strategy associated with climatic uncertainty, but it is unclear whether this mechanism applies generally or is restricted to the insectivorous passerines that predominate as cooperative breeders at the global scale. Here, we use a phylogenetic framework to assess the effect of climate on the evolution of cooperation in hornbills (Bucerotidae), an avian family characterized by frugivory and carnivory. We show that, in contrast to the global pattern, cooperative reproduction is positively associated with both inter- and intra-annual climatic stability. This reversed relationship implies that hornbills are relatively insensitive to climatic fluctuations, perhaps because of their dietary niche or increased body mass, both of which may remove the need for bet-hedging. We conclude that the relationship between climatic variability and cooperative breeding is inconsistent across taxa, and potentially mediated by life-history variation. These findings help to explain the mixed results of previous studies and highlight the likely shortcomings of global datasets inherently biased towards particular categories. PMID:23926149

Clouds and ocean-atmosphere interactions. Final report, September 15, 1992--September 14, 1995

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Randall, D.A.; Jensen, T.G.

1995-10-01

Predictions of global change based on climate models are influencing both national and international policies on energy and the environment. Existing climate models show some skill in simulating the present climate, but suffer from many widely acknowledged deficiencies. Among the most serious problems is the need to apply ``flux corrections`` to prevent the models from drifting away from the observed climate in control runs that do not include external perturbing influences such as increased carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) concentrations. The flux corrections required to prevent climate drift are typically comparable in magnitude to the observed fluxes themselves. Although there canmore » be many contributing reasons for the climate drift problem, clouds and their effects on the surface energy budget are among the prime suspects. The authors have conducted a research program designed to investigate global air-sea interaction as it relates to the global warming problem, with special emphasis on the role of clouds. Their research includes model development efforts; application of models to simulation of present and future climates, with comparison to observations wherever possible; and vigorous participation in ongoing efforts to intercompare the present generation of atmospheric general circulation models.« less

Implications of climate change for agricultural productivity in the early twenty-first century.

PubMed

Gornall, Jemma; Betts, Richard; Burke, Eleanor; Clark, Robin; Camp, Joanne; Willett, Kate; Wiltshire, Andrew

2010-09-27

This paper reviews recent literature concerning a wide range of processes through which climate change could potentially impact global-scale agricultural productivity, and presents projections of changes in relevant meteorological, hydrological and plant physiological quantities from a climate model ensemble to illustrate key areas of uncertainty. Few global-scale assessments have been carried out, and these are limited in their ability to capture the uncertainty in climate projections, and omit potentially important aspects such as extreme events and changes in pests and diseases. There is a lack of clarity on how climate change impacts on drought are best quantified from an agricultural perspective, with different metrics giving very different impressions of future risk. The dependence of some regional agriculture on remote rainfall, snowmelt and glaciers adds to the complexity. Indirect impacts via sea-level rise, storms and diseases have not been quantified. Perhaps most seriously, there is high uncertainty in the extent to which the direct effects of CO(2) rise on plant physiology will interact with climate change in affecting productivity. At present, the aggregate impacts of climate change on global-scale agricultural productivity cannot be reliably quantified.

Implications of climate change for agricultural productivity in the early twenty-first century

PubMed Central

Gornall, Jemma; Betts, Richard; Burke, Eleanor; Clark, Robin; Camp, Joanne; Willett, Kate; Wiltshire, Andrew

2010-01-01

This paper reviews recent literature concerning a wide range of processes through which climate change could potentially impact global-scale agricultural productivity, and presents projections of changes in relevant meteorological, hydrological and plant physiological quantities from a climate model ensemble to illustrate key areas of uncertainty. Few global-scale assessments have been carried out, and these are limited in their ability to capture the uncertainty in climate projections, and omit potentially important aspects such as extreme events and changes in pests and diseases. There is a lack of clarity on how climate change impacts on drought are best quantified from an agricultural perspective, with different metrics giving very different impressions of future risk. The dependence of some regional agriculture on remote rainfall, snowmelt and glaciers adds to the complexity. Indirect impacts via sea-level rise, storms and diseases have not been quantified. Perhaps most seriously, there is high uncertainty in the extent to which the direct effects of CO2 rise on plant physiology will interact with climate change in affecting productivity. At present, the aggregate impacts of climate change on global-scale agricultural productivity cannot be reliably quantified. PMID:20713397

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hill, D.

Steps to mitigate global climate change are being negotiated internationally, but it is on the local level that its effects will be felt and actions are taken. Like many midlatitude coastal cities, metropolitan New York could expect serious consequences from global warming: killing hot spells, worsened ozone pollution, uncertain water supply, and inundation of its waterfront from higher sea level and violent storms. Seen at the local level, the opportunities and limitations of measures to mitigate or adapt to climate change become explicit. Indirect local effects from changes elsewhere in the world must also be considered.

Effects of Meso-Scale and Small-Scale Interactions on Global Climate. Volume I. Orographic Effects on Global Climate

DTIC Science & Technology

1975-02-28

STATEMENT (ol Ih, »b.tfet »nftod in Block 30. II d/ ffa ,en( Irom Report) It. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES 19. KEY WORDS (Conllnue on rev«., «ij» (/ nee» fry...given by 3-29 a^M—. K^^M^^M— ■ - - ■ ■■■■ ’■^-•—- P?B«BWWI^WW™’W"W,SIW!«W5F«^IIW»! BPP ^!^^ ..’ i •’ SSS-R-75-2556 Res(T0) L(T" - WC

Meso-Scale and Small-Scale Interactions on Global Climate. Volume II. Radiation Transport Effects on Global Climate

DTIC Science & Technology

1975-02-28

max this peak , which varies substantially over Az = a A0 = 1 , r max we pick an angular increment Ae = T5— o 2 a max 2-72...22°, as into the main diffraction peak . This effect if. en- tirely missed by an equi"alent sphere model. The error incurred by assumption (7...minimize the sum of squares, we pick Q so that this expression is as negative as possible (if it is never negative for 0 ^ 0 £ 1, we are already

Physiological basis of climate change impacts on North American inland fishes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Whitney, James E.; Al-Chokhachy, Robert K.; Bunnell, David B.; Caldwell, Colleen A.; Cooke, Steven J.; Eliason, Erika J.; Rogers, Mark W.; Lynch, Abigail J.; Paukert, Craig P.

2016-01-01

Global climate change is altering freshwater ecosystems and affecting fish populations and communities. Underpinning changes in fish distribution and assemblage-level responses to climate change are individual-level physiological constraints. In this review, we synthesize the mechanistic effects of climate change on neuroendocrine, cardiorespiratory, immune, osmoregulatory, and reproductive systems of freshwater and diadromous fishes. Observed climate change effects on physiological systems are varied and numerous, including exceedance of critical thermal tolerances, decreased cardiorespiratory performance, compromised immune function, and altered patterns of individual reproductive investment. However, effects vary widely among and within species because of species, population, and even sex-specific differences in sensitivity and resilience and because of habitat-specific variation in the magnitude of climate-related environmental change. Research on the interactive effects of climate change with other environmental stressors across a broader range of fish diversity is needed to further our understanding of climate change effects on fish physiology.

Watershed scale response to climate change--Yampa River Basin, Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hay, Lauren E.; Battaglin, William A.; Markstrom, Steven L.

2012-01-01

General Circulation Model simulations of future climate through 2099 project a wide range of possible scenarios. To determine the sensitivity and potential effect of long-term climate change on the freshwater resources of the United States, the U.S. Geological Survey Global Change study, "An integrated watershed scale response to global change in selected basins across the United States" was started in 2008. The long-term goal of this national study is to provide the foundation for hydrologically based climate change studies across the nation. Fourteen basins for which the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System has been calibrated and evaluated were selected as study sites. Precipitation Runoff Modeling System is a deterministic, distributed parameter watershed model developed to evaluate the effects of various combinations of precipitation, temperature, and land use on streamflow and general basin hydrology. Output from five General Circulation Model simulations and four emission scenarios were used to develop an ensemble of climate-change scenarios for each basin. These ensembles were simulated with the corresponding Precipitation Runoff Modeling System model. This fact sheet summarizes the hydrologic effect and sensitivity of the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System simulations to climate change for the Yampa River Basin at Steamboat Springs, Colorado.

Sixth-Grade Students' Progress in Understanding the Mechanisms of Global Climate Change

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Visintainer, Tammie; Linn, Marcia

2015-01-01

Developing solutions for complex issues such as global climate change requires an understanding of the mechanisms involved. This study reports on the impact of a technology-enhanced unit designed to improve understanding of global climate change, its mechanisms, and their relationship to everyday energy use. Global Climate Change, implemented in…

Ways to Include Global Climate Change in Courses for Prospective Teachers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

van Zee, Emily; Grobart, Emma; Roberts-Harris, Deborah

2016-01-01

What responsibility do science teacher educators have for engaging students in learning about global climate change in courses? How can the topic of global climate change be added to an already packed course curriculum? The authors have begun assembling instructional resources and learning ways others have incorporated global climate change in…

Geoengineering by cloud seeding: influence on sea ice and climate system

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rasch, Philip J.; Latham, John; Chen, Chih-Chieh

2009-12-18

GCM computations using a fully coupled ocean atmosphere model indicate that increasing cloud reflectivity by seeding maritime boundary layer clouds with particles made from seawater may compensate for some of the effects on climate of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. The chosen seeding strategy (one of many possible scenarios) can restore global averages of temperature, precipitation and sea ice to present day values, but not simultaneously. The response varies nonlinearly with extent of the seeding, and geoengineering generates local changes to important climatic features. The global tradeoffs of restoring ice cover and cooling the planet must be assessed alongside the localmore » changes to climate features.« less

Cloud feedback mechanisms and their representation in global climate models

DOE PAGES

Ceppi, Paulo; Brient, Florent; Zelinka, Mark D.; ...

2017-05-11

Cloud feedback—the change in top-of-atmosphere radiative flux resulting from the cloud response to warming—constitutes by far the largest source of uncertainty in the climate response to CO 2 forcing simulated by global climate models (GCMs). In this paper, we review the main mechanisms for cloud feedbacks, and discuss their representation in climate models and the sources of intermodel spread. Global-mean cloud feedback in GCMs results from three main effects: (1) rising free-tropospheric clouds (a positive longwave effect); (2) decreasing tropical low cloud amount (a positive shortwave [SW] effect); (3) increasing high-latitude low cloud optical depth (a negative SW effect). Thesemore » cloud responses simulated by GCMs are qualitatively supported by theory, high-resolution modeling, and observations. Rising high clouds are consistent with the fixed anvil temperature (FAT) hypothesis, whereby enhanced upper-tropospheric radiative cooling causes anvil cloud tops to remain at a nearly fixed temperature as the atmosphere warms. Tropical low cloud amount decreases are driven by a delicate balance between the effects of vertical turbulent fluxes, radiative cooling, large-scale subsidence, and lower-tropospheric stability on the boundary-layer moisture budget. High-latitude low cloud optical depth increases are dominated by phase changes in mixed-phase clouds. Finally, the causes of intermodel spread in cloud feedback are discussed, focusing particularly on the role of unresolved parameterized processes such as cloud microphysics, turbulence, and convection.« less

Cloud feedback mechanisms and their representation in global climate models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ceppi, Paulo; Brient, Florent; Zelinka, Mark D.

Cloud feedback—the change in top-of-atmosphere radiative flux resulting from the cloud response to warming—constitutes by far the largest source of uncertainty in the climate response to CO 2 forcing simulated by global climate models (GCMs). In this paper, we review the main mechanisms for cloud feedbacks, and discuss their representation in climate models and the sources of intermodel spread. Global-mean cloud feedback in GCMs results from three main effects: (1) rising free-tropospheric clouds (a positive longwave effect); (2) decreasing tropical low cloud amount (a positive shortwave [SW] effect); (3) increasing high-latitude low cloud optical depth (a negative SW effect). Thesemore » cloud responses simulated by GCMs are qualitatively supported by theory, high-resolution modeling, and observations. Rising high clouds are consistent with the fixed anvil temperature (FAT) hypothesis, whereby enhanced upper-tropospheric radiative cooling causes anvil cloud tops to remain at a nearly fixed temperature as the atmosphere warms. Tropical low cloud amount decreases are driven by a delicate balance between the effects of vertical turbulent fluxes, radiative cooling, large-scale subsidence, and lower-tropospheric stability on the boundary-layer moisture budget. High-latitude low cloud optical depth increases are dominated by phase changes in mixed-phase clouds. Finally, the causes of intermodel spread in cloud feedback are discussed, focusing particularly on the role of unresolved parameterized processes such as cloud microphysics, turbulence, and convection.« less

Challenging a trickle-down view of climate change on agriculture and groundwater

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Global climate change is largely viewed as affecting ecohydrology of the Earth’s surface, but various studies are showing deeper effects on groundwater. Agricultural systems may be studied at the land surface and into the root zone with deeper effects of water and chemical movement to groundwater. ...

Effects of Solar UV Radiation and Climate Change on Biogeochemical Cycling: Interactions and Feedbacks

EPA Science Inventory

Solar UV radiation, climate and other drivers of global change are undergoing significant changes and models forecast that these changes will continue for the remainder of this century. Here we assess the effects of solar UV radiation on biogeochemical cycles and the interactions...

Modeling The effect of elevated CO2 and climate change on reference evapotranspiration in the semi-arid Great Plains

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Changes in evapotranspiration demand due to global warming will have profound impact on irrigation water demand and agricultural productivity. In this study, effects of possible future anthropogenic climate change on reference evapotranspiration (ETo) was evaluated. The Penman-Monteith equation was ...

Evaluating the impact of climate change on landslide occurrence, hazard, and risk: from global to regional scale.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gariano, Stefano Luigi; Guzzetti, Fausto

2017-04-01

According to the fifth report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, "warming of the climate system is unequivocal". The influence of climate changes on slope stability and landslides is also undisputable. Nevertheless, the quantitative evaluation of the impact of global warming, and the related changes in climate, on landslides remains a complex question to be solved. The evidence that climate and landslides act at only partially overlapping spatial and temporal scales complicates the evaluation. Different research fields, including e.g., climatology, physics, hydrology, geology, hydrogeology, geotechnics, soil science, environmental science, and social science, must be considered. Climatic, environmental, demographic, and economic changes are strictly correlated, with complex feedbacks, to landslide occurrence and variation. Thus, a holistic, multidisciplinary approach is necessary. We reviewed the literature on landslide-climate studies, and found a bias in their geographical distribution, with several studies centered in Europe and North America, and large parts of the world not investigated. We examined advantages and drawbacks of the approaches adopted to evaluate the effects of climate variations on landslides, including prospective modelling and retrospective methods that use landslide and climate records, and paleo-environmental information. We found that the results of landslide-climate studies depend more on the emission scenarios, the global circulation models, the regional climate models, and the methods to downscale the climate variables, than on the description of the variables controlling slope processes. Using ensembles of projections based on a range of emissions scenarios would reduce (or at least quantify) the uncertainties in the obtained results. We performed a preliminary global assessment of the future landslide impact, presenting a global distribution of the projected impact of climate change on landslide activity and abundance. Where global warming is expected to increase, the frequency and intensity of severe rainfall events, a primary trigger of shallow, rapid-moving landslides that cause many landslide fatalities, an increase in the number of people exposed to landslide risk is to be expected. Furthermore, we defined a group of objective and reproducible methods for the quantitative evaluation of the past and future (expected) variations in landslide occurrence and distribution, and in the impact and risk to the population, as a result of changes in climatic and environmental factors (particularly, land use changes), at regional scale. The methods were tested in a southern Italian region, but they can easily applied in other physiographic and climatic regions, where adequate information is available.

Climate change and trace gases.

PubMed

Hansen, James; Sato, Makiko; Kharecha, Pushker; Russell, Gary; Lea, David W; Siddall, Mark

2007-07-15

Palaeoclimate data show that the Earth's climate is remarkably sensitive to global forcings. Positive feedbacks predominate. This allows the entire planet to be whipsawed between climate states. One feedback, the 'albedo flip' property of ice/water, provides a powerful trigger mechanism. A climate forcing that 'flips' the albedo of a sufficient portion of an ice sheet can spark a cataclysm. Inertia of ice sheet and ocean provides only moderate delay to ice sheet disintegration and a burst of added global warming. Recent greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions place the Earth perilously close to dramatic climate change that could run out of our control, with great dangers for humans and other creatures. Carbon dioxide (CO2) is the largest human-made climate forcing, but other trace constituents are also important. Only intense simultaneous efforts to slow CO2 emissions and reduce non-CO2 forcings can keep climate within or near the range of the past million years. The most important of the non-CO2 forcings is methane (CH4), as it causes the second largest human-made GHG climate forcing and is the principal cause of increased tropospheric ozone (O3), which is the third largest GHG forcing. Nitrous oxide (N2O) should also be a focus of climate mitigation efforts. Black carbon ('black soot') has a high global warming potential (approx. 2000, 500 and 200 for 20, 100 and 500 years, respectively) and deserves greater attention. Some forcings are especially effective at high latitudes, so concerted efforts to reduce their emissions could preserve Arctic ice, while also having major benefits for human health, agricultural productivity and the global environment.

Future local climate unlike currently observed anywhere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dahinden, Fabienne; Fischer, Erich M.; Knutti, Reto

2017-08-01

The concept of spatial climate analogs, that is identifying a place with a present-day climate similar to the projections of a place of interest, is a promising method for visualizing and communicating possible effects of climate change. We show that when accounting for seasonal cycles of both temperature and precipitation, it is impossible to find good analogs for projections at many places across the world. For substantial land fractions, primarily in the tropics and subtropics, there are no analogs anywhere with current seasonal cycles of temperature and precipitation matching their projected future conditions. This implies that these places experience the emergence of novel climates. For 1.5 °C global warming about 15% and for 2 °C warming about 21% of the global land is projected to experience novel climates, whereas for a 4 °C warming the corresponding novel climates may emerge on more than a third of the global land fraction. Similar fractions of today’s climates, mainly found in the tropics, subtropics and polar north, are anticipated to disappear in the future. Note that the exact quantification of the land fraction is sensitive to the threshold selection. Novel and disappearing climates may have serious consequences for impacts that are sensitive to the full seasonal cycle of temperature and precipitation. For individual seasons, however, spatial analogs may still be a powerful tool for climate change communication.

Global fish production and climate change

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Brander, K.M.

2007-12-11

Current global fisheries production of {approx}160 million tons is rising as a result of increases in aquaculture production. A number of climate-related threats to both capture fisheries and aquaculture are identified, but there is low confidence in predictions of future fisheries production because of uncertainty over future global aquatic net primary production and the transfer of this production through the food chain to human consumption. Recent changes in the distribution and productivity of a number of fish species can be ascribed with high confidence to regional climate variability, such as the El Nino-Southern Oscillation. Future production may increase in somemore » high-latitude regions because of warming and decreased ice cover, but the dynamics in low-latitude regions are giverned by different processes, and production may decline as a result of reduced vertical mixing of the water column and, hence, reduced recycling of nutrients. There are strong interactions between the effects of fishing and the effects of climate because fishing reduces the age, size, and geographic diversity of populations and the biodiversity of marine ecosystems, making both more sensitive to additional stresses such as climate change. Inland fisheries are additionally threatened by changes in precipiation and water management. The frequency and intensity of extreme climate events is likely to have a major impact on future fisheries production in both inland and marine systems. Reducing fishing mortality in the majority of fisheries, which are currently fully exploited or overexploited, is the pricipal feasible means of reducing the impacts of climate change.« less

Climate in the absence of ocean heat transport

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rose, B. E. J.

2017-12-01

The energy transported by the oceans to mid- and high latitudes is small compared to the atmosphere, yet exerts an outsized influence on climate. A key reason is the strong interaction between ocean heat transport (OHT) and sea ice extent. I quantify the absolute climatic impact of OHT using the state-of-the-art CESM simulations by comparing a realistic control climate against a slab ocean simulation in which OHT is disabled. The absence of OHT leads to a massive expansion of sea ice into the subtropics in both hemispheres, and a 24 K global cooling. Analysis of the transient simulation after setting the OHT to zero reveals a global cooling process fueled by a runaway sea ice albedo feedback. This process is eventually self-limiting in the cold climate due to a combination of subtropical cloud feedbacks and surface wind effects that are both connected to a massive spin-up of the atmospheric Hadley circulation. A parameter sensitivity study shows that the simulated climate is far more sensitive to small changes in ice surface albedo in the absence of OHT. I conclude that the oceans are responsible for an enormous global warming by mitigating an otherwise very potent sea ice albedo feedback, but that the magnitude of this effect is rather uncertain. These simulations provide a graphic illustration of how the intimate coupling between sea ice and ocean circulation governs the present-day climate, and by extension, highlight the importance of modeling ocean - sea ice interaction with high fidelity.

Traits drive global wood decomposition rates more than climate.

PubMed

Hu, Zhenhong; Michaletz, Sean T; Johnson, Daniel J; McDowell, Nate G; Huang, Zhiqun; Zhou, Xuhui; Xu, Chonggang

2018-06-14

Wood decomposition is a major component of the global carbon cycle. Decomposition rates vary across climate gradients, which is thought to reflect the effects of temperature and moisture on the metabolic kinetics of decomposers. However, decomposition rates also vary with wood traits, which may reflect the influence of stoichiometry on decomposer metabolism as well as geometry relating the surface areas that decomposers colonize with the volumes they consume. In this paper, we combined metabolic and geometric scaling theories to formalize hypotheses regarding the drivers of wood decomposition rates, and assessed these hypotheses using a global compilation of data on climate, wood traits, and wood decomposition rates. Our results are consistent with predictions from both metabolic and geometric scaling theories. Approximately half of the global variation in decomposition rates was explained by wood traits (nitrogen content and diameter), while only a fifth was explained by climate variables (air temperature, precipitation, and relative humidity). These results indicate that global variation in wood decomposition rates is best explained by stoichiometric and geometric wood traits. Our findings suggest that inclusion of wood traits in global carbon cycle models can improve predictions of carbon fluxes from wood decomposition. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Costs and global impacts of black carbon abatement strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rypdal, Kristin; Rive, Nathan; Berntsen, Terje K.; Klimont, Zbigniew; Mideksa, Torben K.; Myhre, Gunnar; Skeie, Ragnhild B.

2009-09-01

Abatement of particulate matter has traditionally been driven by health concerns rather than its role in global warming. Here we assess future abatement strategies in terms of how much they reduce the climate impact of black carbon (BC) and organic carbon (OC) from contained combustion. We develop global scenarios which take into account regional differences in climate impact, costs of abatement and ability to pay, as well as both the direct and indirect (snow-albedo) climate impact of BC and OC. To represent the climate impact, we estimate consistent region-specific values of direct and indirect global warming potential (GWP) and global temperature potential (GTP). The indirect GWP has been estimated using a physical approach and includes the effect of change in albedo from BC deposited on snow. The indirect GWP is highest in the Middle East followed by Russia, Europe and North America, while the total GWP is highest in the Middle East, Africa and South Asia. We conclude that prioritizing emission reductions in Asia represents the most cost-efficient global abatement strategy for BC because Asia is (1) responsible for a large share of total emissions, (2) has lower abatement costs compared to Europe and North America and (3) has large health cobenefits from reduced PM10 emissions.

Tropical Tree Trait Diversity Enhances Forest Biomass Resilience in a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sakschewski, B.; Kirsten, T.; von Bloh, W.; Poorter, L.; Pena-Claros, M.; Boit, A.

2016-12-01

Functional diversity of ecosystems has been found to increase ecosystem functions and therefore enhance ecosystem resilience against environmental stressors. However, global carbon-cycle and biosphere models still classify the global vegetation into a relatively small number of distinct plant functional types (PFT) with constant features over space and time. Therefore, those models might underestimate the resilience and adaptive capacity of natural vegetation under climate change by ignoring positive effects that functional diversity might bring about. We diversified a set a of selected tree traits in a dynamic global vegetation model (LPJmL). In the new subversion, called LPJmL-FIT, Amazon region biomass stocks and forest structure appear significantly more resilient against climate change. Enhanced tree trait diversity enables the simulated rainforests to adjust to new environmental conditions via ecological sorting. These results may stimulate a new debate on the value of biodiversity for climate change mitigation.

Coupled Downscaled Climate Models and Ecophysiological Metrics Forecast Habitat Compression for an Endangered Estuarine Fish

PubMed Central

Brown, Larry R.; Komoroske, Lisa M.; Wagner, R. Wayne; Morgan-King, Tara; May, Jason T.; Connon, Richard E.; Fangue, Nann A.

2016-01-01

Climate change is driving rapid changes in environmental conditions and affecting population and species’ persistence across spatial and temporal scales. Integrating climate change assessments into biological resource management, such as conserving endangered species, is a substantial challenge, partly due to a mismatch between global climate forecasts and local or regional conservation planning. Here, we demonstrate how outputs of global climate change models can be downscaled to the watershed scale, and then coupled with ecophysiological metrics to assess climate change effects on organisms of conservation concern. We employed models to estimate future water temperatures (2010–2099) under several climate change scenarios within the large heterogeneous San Francisco Estuary. We then assessed the warming effects on the endangered, endemic Delta Smelt, Hypomesus transpacificus, by integrating localized projected water temperatures with thermal sensitivity metrics (tolerance, spawning and maturation windows, and sublethal stress thresholds) across life stages. Lethal temperatures occurred under several scenarios, but sublethal effects resulting from chronic stressful temperatures were more common across the estuary (median >60 days above threshold for >50% locations by the end of the century). Behavioral avoidance of such stressful temperatures would make a large portion of the potential range of Delta Smelt unavailable during the summer and fall. Since Delta Smelt are not likely to migrate to other estuaries, these changes are likely to result in substantial habitat compression. Additionally, the Delta Smelt maturation window was shortened by 18–85 days, revealing cumulative effects of stressful summer and fall temperatures with early initiation of spring spawning that may negatively impact fitness. Our findings highlight the value of integrating sublethal thresholds, life history, and in situ thermal heterogeneity into global change impact assessments. As downscaled climate models are becoming widely available, we conclude that similar assessments at management-relevant scales will improve the scientific basis for resource management decisions. PMID:26796147

Coupled Downscaled Climate Models and Ecophysiological Metrics Forecast Habitat Compression for an Endangered Estuarine Fish.

PubMed

Brown, Larry R; Komoroske, Lisa M; Wagner, R Wayne; Morgan-King, Tara; May, Jason T; Connon, Richard E; Fangue, Nann A

2016-01-01

Climate change is driving rapid changes in environmental conditions and affecting population and species' persistence across spatial and temporal scales. Integrating climate change assessments into biological resource management, such as conserving endangered species, is a substantial challenge, partly due to a mismatch between global climate forecasts and local or regional conservation planning. Here, we demonstrate how outputs of global climate change models can be downscaled to the watershed scale, and then coupled with ecophysiological metrics to assess climate change effects on organisms of conservation concern. We employed models to estimate future water temperatures (2010-2099) under several climate change scenarios within the large heterogeneous San Francisco Estuary. We then assessed the warming effects on the endangered, endemic Delta Smelt, Hypomesus transpacificus, by integrating localized projected water temperatures with thermal sensitivity metrics (tolerance, spawning and maturation windows, and sublethal stress thresholds) across life stages. Lethal temperatures occurred under several scenarios, but sublethal effects resulting from chronic stressful temperatures were more common across the estuary (median >60 days above threshold for >50% locations by the end of the century). Behavioral avoidance of such stressful temperatures would make a large portion of the potential range of Delta Smelt unavailable during the summer and fall. Since Delta Smelt are not likely to migrate to other estuaries, these changes are likely to result in substantial habitat compression. Additionally, the Delta Smelt maturation window was shortened by 18-85 days, revealing cumulative effects of stressful summer and fall temperatures with early initiation of spring spawning that may negatively impact fitness. Our findings highlight the value of integrating sublethal thresholds, life history, and in situ thermal heterogeneity into global change impact assessments. As downscaled climate models are becoming widely available, we conclude that similar assessments at management-relevant scales will improve the scientific basis for resource management decisions.

Coupled downscaled climate models and ecophysiological metrics forecast habitat compression for an endangered estuarine fish

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brown, Larry R.; Komoroske, Lisa M; Wagner, R Wayne; Morgan-King, Tara; May, Jason T.; Connon, Richard E; Fangue, Nann A.

2016-01-01

Climate change is driving rapid changes in environmental conditions and affecting population and species’ persistence across spatial and temporal scales. Integrating climate change assessments into biological resource management, such as conserving endangered species, is a substantial challenge, partly due to a mismatch between global climate forecasts and local or regional conservation planning. Here, we demonstrate how outputs of global climate change models can be downscaled to the watershed scale, and then coupled with ecophysiological metrics to assess climate change effects on organisms of conservation concern. We employed models to estimate future water temperatures (2010–2099) under several climate change scenarios within the large heterogeneous San Francisco Estuary. We then assessed the warming effects on the endangered, endemic Delta Smelt, Hypomesus transpacificus, by integrating localized projected water temperatures with thermal sensitivity metrics (tolerance, spawning and maturation windows, and sublethal stress thresholds) across life stages. Lethal temperatures occurred under several scenarios, but sublethal effects resulting from chronic stressful temperatures were more common across the estuary (median >60 days above threshold for >50% locations by the end of the century). Behavioral avoidance of such stressful temperatures would make a large portion of the potential range of Delta Smelt unavailable during the summer and fall. Since Delta Smelt are not likely to migrate to other estuaries, these changes are likely to result in substantial habitat compression. Additionally, the Delta Smelt maturation window was shortened by 18–85 days, revealing cumulative effects of stressful summer and fall temperatures with early initiation of spring spawning that may negatively impact fitness. Our findings highlight the value of integrating sublethal thresholds, life history, and in situ thermal heterogeneity into global change impact assessments. As downscaled climate models are becoming widely available, we conclude that similar assessments at management-relevant scales will improve the scientific basis for resource management decisions.

Including the biogeochemical impacts of deforestation increases projected warming of climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scott, Catherine; Monks, Sarah; Spracklen, Dominick; Arnold, Stephen; Forster, Piers; Rap, Alexandru; Carslaw, Kenneth; Chipperfield, Martyn; Reddington, Carly; Wilson, Christopher

2016-04-01

Forests cover almost one third of the Earth's land area and their distribution is changing as a result of human activities. The presence, and removal, of forests affects the climate in many ways, with the net climate impact of deforestation dependent upon the relative strength of these effects (Betts, 2000; Bala et al., 2007; Davin and de Noblet-Ducoudré, 2010). In addition to controlling the surface albedo and exchanging carbon dioxide (CO2) and moisture with the atmosphere, vegetation emits biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs), which lead to the formation of biogenic secondary organic aerosol (SOA) and alter the oxidative capacity of the atmosphere, affecting ozone (O3) and methane (CH4) concentrations. In this work, we combine a land-surface model with a chemical transport model, a global aerosol model, and a radiative transfer model to compare several radiative impacts of idealised deforestation scenarios in the present day. We find that the simulated reduction in biogenic SOA production, due to complete global deforestation, exerts a positive combined aerosol radiative forcing (RF) of between +308.0 and +362.7 mW m-2; comprised of a direct radiative effect of between +116.5 and +165.0 mW m-2, and a first aerosol indirect effect of between +191.5 and +197.7 mW m-2. We find that the reduction in O3 exerts a negative RF of -150.7 mW m-2 and the reduction in CH4 results in a negative RF of -76.2 mWm-2. When the impacts on biogenic SOA, O3 and CH4 are combined, global deforestation exerts an overall positive RF of between +81.1 and +135.9 mW m-2 through changes to short-lived climate forcers (SLCF). Taking these additional biogeochemical impacts into account increases the net positive RF of complete global deforestation, due to changes in CO2 and surface albedo, by 7-11%. Overall, our work suggests that deforestation has a stronger warming impact on climate than previously thought. References: Bala, G. et al., 2007. Combined climate and carbon-cycle effects of large-scale deforestation. PNAS, 104, 6550-6555. Betts, R. A. 2000. Offset of the potential carbon sink from boreal forestation by decreases in surface albedo. Nature, 408, 187-190. Davin, E. L. & De Noblet-Ducoudré, N. 2010. Climatic Impact of Global-Scale Deforestation: Radiative versus Non-radiative Processes. Journal of Climate, 23, 97-112. .

Potential climate impact of Mount Pinatubo eruption

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hansen, James; Lacis, Andrew; Ruedy, Reto; Sato, Makiko

1992-01-01

The GISS global-climate model is used to make a preliminary estimate of Mount Pinatubo's climate impact. Assuming the aerosol optical depth is nearly twice as great as for the 1982 El Chichon eruption, the model forecasts a dramatic but temporary break in recent global warming trends. The simulations indicate that Pinatubo occurred too late in the year to prevent 1991 from becoming one of the warmest years in instrumental records, but intense aerosol cooling is predicted to begin late in 1991 and to maximize late in 1992. The predicted cooling is sufficiently large that by mid 1992 it should even overwhelm global warming associated with an El Nino that appears to be developing, but the El Nino could shift the time of minimum global temperature into 1993. The model predicts a return to record warm levels in the later 1990s. The effect is estimated of the predicted global cooling on such practical matters as the severity of the coming Soviet winter and the dates of cherry blossoming next spring.

Global warming effects: future feasibility of current cooling equipment for animal houses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valiño, V.; Perdigones, A.; García, J. L.; de La Plaza, S.

2009-04-01

Interest in global warming effects on the agricultural systems is currently high, especially in areas which are likely to be more affected by this temperature rising, i.e. the Mediterranean area (IPCC, 2008). According to this report, the model projections of surface warming predict a temperature increase between 0.5°C to 1.5°C in the European area by the period 2020-2029. The aim of the present work was to assess the future consequences of the global warming effect on the feasibility of the cooling equipment in animal houses. Several equipment combinations were compared by means of modelling the inside climate in fattening pig houses, including forced ventilation and cooling pad. The modelling was carried out for six different European locations: Spain, Greece, Italy, The Netherlands, Germany and the United Kingdom, for the today conditions; secondly, the global warming effect in the inside climate was considered in a second set of simulations, and a mean temperature rising of 2°C was taken into account. Climate data. The six European locations were: Madrid (Spain); Aliartos (Greece); Bedford (The United Kingdom); Schipol (The Netherlands); Milan (Italy); and Stuttgart (Germany). From every location, the available climate data were monthly mean temperature (To; °C); monthly mean relative humidity (HRo, %) and monthly mean solar irradiation on horizontal surface (So; W m-2). From these monthly values, hourly means were calculated resulting in 24 data for a typical day, each month. Climate model. In this study, cooling strategies resulted from the combination of natural ventilation, mechanical ventilation and cooling pads. The climate model was developed taking into account the following energy fluxes: solar radiation, ventilation (Seginer, 2002), animal heat losses (Blanes and Pedersen, 2005), and loss of energy due to the cooling pads (Seginer, 2002). Results for the present work, show a comparative scene of the inside climate by using different cooling equipment combinations, from natural ventilation to cooling pads. Simulations which include the effects of climate change show the evolution in cooling technologies which will be necessary in this kind of animal houses, in six European locations, if the global temperature rising continues with the current rate. The necessary changes in cooling technologies of animal houses, will be important in Europe when the outside air temperature rising is greater than or equal to two Celsius degrees. Intergovernmental Panel on the Climate Change. 2008. Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/syr/ar4syr.pdf I. Seginer. 2002. The Penman-Monteith Evapotranspiration Equation as an Element in Greenhouse Ventilation Design. Biosystems Eng. 82(4): 423-439. doi:10.1006/bioe2002.0086 V. Blanes, S. Pedersen. 2005. Ventilation Flow in Pig Houses measured and calculated by Carbon Dioxide, Moisture and Heat Balance Equations. Biosystems Eng. 92(4): 483-493. doi:10.1006/j.biosystemseng.2005.09.002

Uncertain impacts on economic growth when stabilizing global temperatures at 1.5°C or 2°C warming

PubMed Central

Schwarz, Moritz; Tang, Kevin; Haustein, Karsten; Allen, Myles R.

2018-01-01

Empirical evidence suggests that variations in climate affect economic growth across countries over time. However, little is known about the relative impacts of climate change on economic outcomes when global mean surface temperature (GMST) is stabilized at 1.5°C or 2°C warming relative to pre-industrial levels. Here we use a new set of climate simulations under 1.5°C and 2°C warming from the ‘Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts' (HAPPI) project to assess changes in economic growth using empirical estimates of climate impacts in a global panel dataset. Panel estimation results that are robust to outliers and breaks suggest that within-year variability of monthly temperatures and precipitation has little effect on economic growth beyond global nonlinear temperature effects. While expected temperature changes under a GMST increase of 1.5°C lead to proportionally higher warming in the Northern Hemisphere, the projected impact on economic growth is larger in the Tropics and Southern Hemisphere. Accounting for econometric estimation and climate uncertainty, the projected impacts on economic growth of 1.5°C warming are close to indistinguishable from current climate conditions, while 2°C warming suggests statistically lower economic growth for a large set of countries (median projected annual growth up to 2% lower). Level projections of gross domestic product (GDP) per capita exhibit high uncertainties, with median projected global average GDP per capita approximately 5% lower at the end of the century under 2°C warming relative to 1.5°C. The correlation between climate-induced reductions in per capita GDP growth and national income levels is significant at the p < 0.001 level, with lower-income countries experiencing greater losses, which may increase economic inequality between countries and is relevant to discussions of loss and damage under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. This article is part of the theme issue ‘The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'. PMID:29610370

The world at 1.5°C: Understanding its regional dimensions and driving processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seneviratne, S. I.; Wartenburger, R.; Vogel, M.; Hirsch, A.; Guillod, B.; Donat, M.; Pitman, A. J.; Davin, E.; Greve, P.; Hirschi, M.

2017-12-01

This presentation reviews the available evidence regarding projected regional changes in climate extremes at 1.5°C vs higher levels of warming based on recent analyses (Seneviratne et al. 2016; Wartenburger et al., submitted; Greve et al., submitted). In several regions, significant differences in the occurrence of climate extremes can be identified already for half a degree of warming when assessing changes at 1.5°C vs 2°C global warming. An important feature is the much stronger warming of hot extremes in several continental regions compared to the global mean warming, which implies that temperature extremes can warm regionally by much more than 1.5°C, even if global temperature warming is stabilized at this level (e.g. up to 6°C for certain models in the Arctic). This feature is due to a combination of feedbacks and internal climate variability. We highlight in particular the importance of land-climate feedbacks for projected changes in hot extremes in mid-latitude regions (Vogel et al. 2017). Because of the strong effects of land processes on regional changes in temperature extremes, changes in land surface properties, including land use changes, are found to be particularly important for projections in low-emissions scenarios (Hirsch et al. 2017; Guillod et al., submitted). References: Greve, P., et al.: Regional scaling of annual mean precipitation and water availability with global temperature change. Submitted. Guillod, B.P., et al.: Land use in low climate warming targets critical for hot extreme projections. Submitted. Hirsch, A.L., et al., 2017: Can climate-effective land management reduce regional warming? J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 122, 2269-2288, doi:10.1002/2016JD026125. Seneviratne, S.I., et al., 2016: Allowable CO2 emissions based on regional and impact-related climate targets. Nature, 529, 477-483, doi:10.1038/nature16542. Vogel, M.M., et al., 2017: Regional amplification of projected changes in extreme temperatures strongly controlled by soil moisture-temperature feedbacks. Geophysical Research Letters, 44(3), 1511-1519. Wartenburger, R., et al.: Changes in regional climate extremes as a function of global mean temperature: an interactive plotting framework. Geosci. Model Dev. - Submitt.,

Uncertain impacts on economic growth when stabilizing global temperatures at 1.5°C or 2°C warming.

PubMed

Pretis, Felix; Schwarz, Moritz; Tang, Kevin; Haustein, Karsten; Allen, Myles R

2018-05-13

Empirical evidence suggests that variations in climate affect economic growth across countries over time. However, little is known about the relative impacts of climate change on economic outcomes when global mean surface temperature (GMST) is stabilized at 1.5°C or 2°C warming relative to pre-industrial levels. Here we use a new set of climate simulations under 1.5°C and 2°C warming from the 'Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts' (HAPPI) project to assess changes in economic growth using empirical estimates of climate impacts in a global panel dataset. Panel estimation results that are robust to outliers and breaks suggest that within-year variability of monthly temperatures and precipitation has little effect on economic growth beyond global nonlinear temperature effects. While expected temperature changes under a GMST increase of 1.5°C lead to proportionally higher warming in the Northern Hemisphere, the projected impact on economic growth is larger in the Tropics and Southern Hemisphere. Accounting for econometric estimation and climate uncertainty, the projected impacts on economic growth of 1.5°C warming are close to indistinguishable from current climate conditions, while 2°C warming suggests statistically lower economic growth for a large set of countries (median projected annual growth up to 2% lower). Level projections of gross domestic product (GDP) per capita exhibit high uncertainties, with median projected global average GDP per capita approximately 5% lower at the end of the century under 2°C warming relative to 1.5°C. The correlation between climate-induced reductions in per capita GDP growth and national income levels is significant at the p  < 0.001 level, with lower-income countries experiencing greater losses, which may increase economic inequality between countries and is relevant to discussions of loss and damage under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.This article is part of the theme issue 'The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'. © 2018 The Authors.

Uncertain impacts on economic growth when stabilizing global temperatures at 1.5°C or 2°C warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pretis, Felix; Schwarz, Moritz; Tang, Kevin; Haustein, Karsten; Allen, Myles R.

2018-05-01

Empirical evidence suggests that variations in climate affect economic growth across countries over time. However, little is known about the relative impacts of climate change on economic outcomes when global mean surface temperature (GMST) is stabilized at 1.5°C or 2°C warming relative to pre-industrial levels. Here we use a new set of climate simulations under 1.5°C and 2°C warming from the `Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts' (HAPPI) project to assess changes in economic growth using empirical estimates of climate impacts in a global panel dataset. Panel estimation results that are robust to outliers and breaks suggest that within-year variability of monthly temperatures and precipitation has little effect on economic growth beyond global nonlinear temperature effects. While expected temperature changes under a GMST increase of 1.5°C lead to proportionally higher warming in the Northern Hemisphere, the projected impact on economic growth is larger in the Tropics and Southern Hemisphere. Accounting for econometric estimation and climate uncertainty, the projected impacts on economic growth of 1.5°C warming are close to indistinguishable from current climate conditions, while 2°C warming suggests statistically lower economic growth for a large set of countries (median projected annual growth up to 2% lower). Level projections of gross domestic product (GDP) per capita exhibit high uncertainties, with median projected global average GDP per capita approximately 5% lower at the end of the century under 2°C warming relative to 1.5°C. The correlation between climate-induced reductions in per capita GDP growth and national income levels is significant at the p < 0.001 level, with lower-income countries experiencing greater losses, which may increase economic inequality between countries and is relevant to discussions of loss and damage under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. This article is part of the theme issue `The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'.

Climatic controls on the global distribution, abundance, and species richness of mangrove forests

USGS Publications Warehouse

Osland, Michael J.; Feher, Laura C.; Griffith, Kereen; Cavanaugh, Kyle C.; Enwright, Nicholas M.; Day, Richard H.; Stagg, Camille L.; Krauss, Ken W.; Howard, Rebecca J.; Grace, James B.; Rogers, Kerrylee

2017-01-01

Mangrove forests are highly productive tidal saline wetland ecosystems found along sheltered tropical and subtropical coasts. Ecologists have long assumed that climatic drivers (i.e., temperature and rainfall regimes) govern the global distribution, structure, and function of mangrove forests. However, data constraints have hindered the quantification of direct climate-mangrove linkages in many parts of the world. Recently, the quality and availability of global-scale climate and mangrove data have been improving. Here, we used these data to better understand the influence of air temperature and rainfall regimes upon the distribution, abundance, and species richness of mangrove forests. Although our analyses identify global-scale relationships and thresholds, we show that the influence of climatic drivers is best characterized via regional range limit-specific analyses. We quantified climatic controls across targeted gradients in temperature and/or rainfall within 14 mangrove distributional range limits. Climatic thresholds for mangrove presence, abundance, and species richness differed among the 14 studied range limits. We identified minimum temperature-based thresholds for range limits in eastern North America, eastern Australia, New Zealand, eastern Asia, eastern South America, and southeast Africa. We identified rainfall-based thresholds for range limits in western North America, western Gulf of Mexico, western South America, western Australia, Middle East, northwest Africa, east central Africa, and west central Africa. Our results show that in certain range limits (e.g., eastern North America, western Gulf of Mexico, eastern Asia), winter air temperature extremes play an especially important role. We conclude that rainfall and temperature regimes are both important in western North America, western Gulf of Mexico, and western Australia. With climate change, alterations in temperature and rainfall regimes will affect the global distribution, abundance, and diversity of mangrove forests. In general, warmer winter temperatures are expected to allow mangroves to expand poleward at the expense of salt marshes. However, dispersal and habitat availability constraints may hinder expansion near certain range limits. Along arid and semi-arid coasts, decreases or increases in rainfall are expected to lead to mangrove contraction or expansion, respectively. Collectively, our analyses quantify climate-mangrove linkages and improve our understanding of the expected global- and regional-scale effects of climate change upon mangrove forests.

Global Change Impacts on Future Fire Regimes: Distinguishing Between Climate-limited vs Ignition-Limited Landscapes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keeley, J. E.; Syphard, A. D.

2016-12-01

Global warming is expected to exacerbate fire impacts. Predicting how climates will impact future fire regimes requires an understanding of how temperature and precipitation interact to control fire activity. Inevitably this requires historical analyses that relate annual burning to climate variation. Within climatically homogeneous subregions, montane forested landscapes show strong relationships between annual fluctuations in temperature and precipitation with area burned, however, this is strongly seasonal dependent; e.g., winter temperatures have very little or no effect but spring and summer temperatures are critical. Climate models are needed that predict future seasonal temperature changes if we are to forecast future fire regimes in these forests. Climate does not appear to be a major determinant of fire activity on all landscapes. Lower elevations and lower latitudes show little or no increase in fire activity with hotter and drier conditions. On these landscapes climate is not usually limiting to fires but these vegetation types are ignition-limited, and because they are closely juxtaposed with human habitations fire regimes are more strongly controlled by other direct anthropogenic impacts. Predicting future fire regimes is not rocket science, it is far more complicated than that. Climate change is not relevant on some landscapes, but where climate is relevant the relationship will change due to direct climate effects on vegetation trajectories, as well as by feedback processes of fire effects on vegetation distribution, plus policy changes in how we manage ecosystems.

Long-term integrated studies show complex and surprising effects of climate change in northern hardwood forests

Treesearch

Peter M. Groffman; Lindsey Rustad; Pamela H. Templer; John Campbell; Lynn M. Christenson; Nina K. Lany; Anne M. Socci; Matthew A. Vadeboncoeur; Paul Schaberg; Geoffrey F. Wilson; Charles T. Driscoll; Timothy J. Fahey; Melany C. Fisk; Christine L. Goodale; Mark B. Green; Steven P. Hamburg; Chris E. Johnson; Myron J. Mitchell; Jennifer L. Morse; Linda H. Pardo; Nicholas L. Rodenhouse

2012-01-01

Evaluations of the local effects of global change are often confounded by the interactions of natural and anthropogenic factors that overshadow the effects of climate changes on ecosystems. Long-term watershed and natural elevation gradient studies at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest and in the surrounding region show surprising results demonstrating the effects...

Can reducing black carbon emissions counteract global warming?

PubMed

Bond, Tami C; Sun, Haolin

2005-08-15

Field measurements and model results have recently shown that aerosols may have important climatic impacts. One line of inquiry has investigated whether reducing climate-warming soot or black carbon aerosol emissions can form a viable component of mitigating global warming. We review and acknowledge scientific arguments against considering aerosols and greenhouse gases in a common framework, including the differences in the physical mechanisms of climate change and relevant time scales. We argue that such a joint consideration is consistent with the language of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. We synthesize results from published climate-modeling studies to obtain a global warming potential for black carbon relative to that of CO2 (680 on a 100 year basis). This calculation enables a discussion of cost-effectiveness for mitigating the largest sources of black carbon. We find that many emission reductions are either expensive or difficult to enact when compared with greenhouse gases, particularly in Annex I countries. Finally, we propose a role for black carbon in climate mitigation strategies that is consistent with the apparently conflicting arguments raised during our discussion. Addressing these emissions is a promising way to reduce climatic interference primarily for nations that have not yet agreed to address greenhouse gas emissions and provides the potential for a parallel climate agreement.

Understanding and managing trust at the climate science-policy interface

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lacey, Justine; Howden, Mark; Cvitanovic, Christopher; Colvin, R. M.

2018-01-01

Climate change effects are accelerating, making the need for appropriate actions informed by sound climate knowledge ever more pressing. A strong climate science-policy relationship facilitates the effective integration of climate knowledge into local, national and global policy processes, increases society's responsiveness to a changing climate, and aligns research activity to policy needs. This complex science-policy relationship requires trust between climate science `producers' and `users', but our understanding of trust at this interface remains largely uncritical. To assist climate scientists and policymakers, this Perspective provides insights into how trust develops and operates at the interface of climate science and policy, and examines the extent to which trust can manage — or even create — risk at this interface.

Using dendrometer and dendroclimatology data to predict the growth response of Douglas-fir to climate change in the Pacific Northwest, USA

EPA Science Inventory

Altered seasonal climate patterns towards hotter, drier summers through the 21st century resulting from global climate change could affect the growth of coniferous forests in the Pacific Northwest (PNW) region of North America. The seasonal effects of temperature, precipitation,...

Evaluating the effects of climate change on summertime ozone using a relative reduction factor approach for policymakers

EPA Science Inventory

The impact of climate change on surface-level ozone is examined through a multiscale modeling effort that linked global and regional climate models to drive air quality model simulations. Results are quantified in terms of the relative response factor (RRFE), which estimates the ...

Effects of climatic conditions and management practices on agricultural carbon and water budgets in the Inland Pacific Northwest USA

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Cropland is an important land cover influencing global carbon and water cycles. Variability of agricultural carbon and water fluxes depends on crop species, management practices, soil characteristics, and climatic conditions. In the context of climate change, it is critical to quantify the long-term...

Interactive influences of ozone and climate on streamflow of forested watersheds

Treesearch

Ge Sun; Samuel B. Mclaughlin; John H. Porter; Johan Uddling; Patrick J. Mulholland; Mary B. Adams; Neil Pederson

2012-01-01

The capacity of forests tomitigate global climate change can be negatively influenced by tropospheric ozone that impairs both photosynthesis and stomatal control of plant transpiration, thus affecting ecosystem productivity and watershed hydrology. We have evaluated individual and interactive effects of ozone and climate on late season streamflow for six forested...

Climate Education: Empowering Today's Youth to Meet Tomorrow's Challenges

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schreiner, Camilla; Henriksen, Ellen K.; Kirkeby Hansen, Pal J.

2005-01-01

An enhanced greenhouse effect, leading to global warming and associated changes in the climate system, is arguably one of the greatest environmental challenges facing humankind in the 21st century. The challenge extends to the scientific, political, economic and ethical domains of the human enterprise. The science of climate change involves…

How will SOA change in the future?: SOA IN THE FUTURE

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lin, Guangxing; Penner, Joyce E.; Zhou, Cheng

2016-02-17

Secondary organic aerosol (SOA) plays a significant role in the Earth system by altering its radiative balance. Here we use an Earth system model coupled with an explicit SOA formation module to estimate the response of SOA concentrations to changes in climate, anthropogenic emissions, and human land use in the future. We find that climate change is the major driver for SOA change under the representative concentration pathways for the 8.5 future scenario. Climate change increases isoprene emission rate by 18% with the effect of temperature increases outweighing that of the CO2 inhibition effect. Annual mean global SOA mass ismore » increased by 25% as a result of climate change. However, anthropogenic emissions and land use change decrease SOA. The net effect is that future global SOA burden in 2100 is nearly the same as that of the present day. The SOA concentrations over the Northern Hemisphere are predicted to decline in the future due to the control of sulfur emissions.« less

The climate system as a ticking clock

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kerr, R.A.

1990-09-14

Climate researchers are picking up a more or less regular 2-year beat to the global climate system - one that seems to be heard from every quarter. The most recently discovered example of this climatic ticking - and perhaps the most intriguing - comes from the very core of El Nino. Researchers have found that some aspects of this cycle of alternating warm and relatively cold waters along the equatorial Pacific have a tendency to repeat every 2 years. The overlying winds pulsate at the same pace, as do the globe-girdling effects of the El Nino cycle, from winter warmthmore » in Alaska to heavy rains in Peru and drought in Australia. The climatic ticking in the tropical Pacific is hardly as reliable as the changing of the seasons. Sometimes it is muted, and occasionally it skips a beat. But some researchers nevertheless see hope of using it in the prediction of El Nino and its global effects. In any case, climate researchers are eager to determine what makes El Nino tick. The answer could be an underlying pacemaker of this crucial atmospheric cycle.« less

Climate targets and cost-effective climate stabilization pathways

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Held, H.

2015-08-01

Climate economics has developed two main tools to derive an economically adequate response to the climate problem. Cost benefit analysis weighs in any available information on mitigation costs and benefits and thereby derives an "optimal" global mean temperature. Quite the contrary, cost effectiveness analysis allows deriving costs of potential policy targets and the corresponding cost- minimizing investment paths. The article highlights pros and cons of both approaches and then focusses on the implications of a policy that strives at limiting global warming to 2 °C compared to pre-industrial values. The related mitigation costs and changes in the energy sector are summarized according to the IPCC report of 2014. The article then points to conceptual difficulties when internalizing uncertainty in these types of analyses and suggests pragmatic solutions. Key statements on mitigation economics remain valid under uncertainty when being given the adequate interpretation. Furthermore, the expected economic value of perfect climate information is found to be on the order of hundreds of billions of Euro per year if a 2°-policy were requested. Finally, the prospects of climate policy are sketched.

GlobTherm, a global database on thermal tolerances for aquatic and terrestrial organisms.

PubMed

Bennett, Joanne M; Calosi, Piero; Clusella-Trullas, Susana; Martínez, Brezo; Sunday, Jennifer; Algar, Adam C; Araújo, Miguel B; Hawkins, Bradford A; Keith, Sally; Kühn, Ingolf; Rahbek, Carsten; Rodríguez, Laura; Singer, Alexander; Villalobos, Fabricio; Ángel Olalla-Tárraga, Miguel; Morales-Castilla, Ignacio

2018-03-13

How climate affects species distributions is a longstanding question receiving renewed interest owing to the need to predict the impacts of global warming on biodiversity. Is climate change forcing species to live near their critical thermal limits? Are these limits likely to change through natural selection? These and other important questions can be addressed with models relating geographical distributions of species with climate data, but inferences made with these models are highly contingent on non-climatic factors such as biotic interactions. Improved understanding of climate change effects on species will require extensive analysis of thermal physiological traits, but such data are both scarce and scattered. To overcome current limitations, we created the GlobTherm database. The database contains experimentally derived species' thermal tolerance data currently comprising over 2,000 species of terrestrial, freshwater, intertidal and marine multicellular algae, plants, fungi, and animals. The GlobTherm database will be maintained and curated by iDiv with the aim to keep expanding it, and enable further investigations on the effects of climate on the distribution of life on Earth.

An economic evaluation of solar radiation management.

PubMed

Aaheim, Asbjørn; Romstad, Bård; Wei, Taoyuan; Kristjánsson, Jón Egill; Muri, Helene; Niemeier, Ulrike; Schmidt, Hauke

2015-11-01

Economic evaluations of solar radiation management (SRM) usually assume that the temperature will be stabilized, with no economic impacts of climate change, but with possible side-effects. We know from experiments with climate models, however, that unlike emission control the spatial and temporal distributions of temperature, precipitation and wind conditions will change. Hence, SRM may have economic consequences under a stabilization of global mean temperature even if side-effects other than those related to the climatic responses are disregarded. This paper addresses the economic impacts of implementing two SRM technologies; stratospheric sulfur injection and marine cloud brightening. By the use of a computable general equilibrium model, we estimate the economic impacts of climatic responses based on the results from two earth system models, MPI-ESM and NorESM. We find that under a moderately increasing greenhouse-gas concentration path, RCP4.5, the economic benefits of implementing climate engineering are small, and may become negative. Global GDP increases in three of the four experiments and all experiments include regions where the benefits from climate engineering are negative. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Global temperature responses to current emissions from the transport sectors

PubMed Central

Berntsen, Terje; Fuglestvedt, Jan

2008-01-01

Transport affects climate directly and indirectly through mechanisms that cause both warming and cooling of climate, and the effects operate on very different timescales. We calculate climate responses in terms of global mean temperature and find large differences between the transport sectors with respect to the size and mix of short- and long-lived effects, and even the sign of the temperature response. For year 2000 emissions, road transport has the largest effect on global mean temperature. After 20 and 100 years the response in net temperature is 7 and 6 times higher, respectively, than for aviation. Aviation and shipping have strong but quite uncertain short-lived warming and cooling effects, respectively, that dominate during the first decades after the emissions. For shipping the net cooling during the first 4 decades is due to emissions of SO2 and NOx. On a longer timescale, the current emissions from shipping cause net warming due to the persistence of the CO2 perturbation. If emissions stay constant at 2000 levels, the warming effect from road transport will continue to increase and will be almost 4 times larger than that of aviation by the end of the century. PMID:19047640

Solar ultraviolet radiation and ozone depletion-driven climate change: effects on terrestrial ecosystems.

PubMed

Bornman, J F; Barnes, P W; Robinson, S A; Ballaré, C L; Flint, S D; Caldwell, M M

2015-01-01

In this assessment we summarise advances in our knowledge of how UV-B radiation (280-315 nm), together with other climate change factors, influence terrestrial organisms and ecosystems. We identify key uncertainties and knowledge gaps that limit our ability to fully evaluate the interactive effects of ozone depletion and climate change on these systems. We also evaluate the biological consequences of the way in which stratospheric ozone depletion has contributed to climate change in the Southern Hemisphere. Since the last assessment, several new findings or insights have emerged or been strengthened. These include: (1) the increasing recognition that UV-B radiation has specific regulatory roles in plant growth and development that in turn can have beneficial consequences for plant productivity via effects on plant hardiness, enhanced plant resistance to herbivores and pathogens, and improved quality of agricultural products with subsequent implications for food security; (2) UV-B radiation together with UV-A (315-400 nm) and visible (400-700 nm) radiation are significant drivers of decomposition of plant litter in globally important arid and semi-arid ecosystems, such as grasslands and deserts. This occurs through the process of photodegradation, which has implications for nutrient cycling and carbon storage, although considerable uncertainty exists in quantifying its regional and global biogeochemical significance; (3) UV radiation can contribute to climate change via its stimulation of volatile organic compounds from plants, plant litter and soils, although the magnitude, rates and spatial patterns of these emissions remain highly uncertain at present. UV-induced release of carbon from plant litter and soils may also contribute to global warming; and (4) depletion of ozone in the Southern Hemisphere modifies climate directly via effects on seasonal weather patterns (precipitation and wind) and these in turn have been linked to changes in the growth of plants across the Southern Hemisphere. Such research has broadened our understanding of the linkages that exist between the effects of ozone depletion, UV-B radiation and climate change on terrestrial ecosystems.

Effects of climate variability on global scale flood risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ward, P.; Dettinger, M. D.; Kummu, M.; Jongman, B.; Sperna Weiland, F.; Winsemius, H.

2013-12-01

In this contribution we demonstrate the influence of climate variability on flood risk. Globally, flooding is one of the worst natural hazards in terms of economic damages; Munich Re estimates global losses in the last decade to be in excess of $240 billion. As a result, scientifically sound estimates of flood risk at the largest scales are increasingly needed by industry (including multinational companies and the insurance industry) and policy communities. Several assessments of global scale flood risk under current and conditions have recently become available, and this year has seen the first studies assessing how flood risk may change in the future due to global change. However, the influence of climate variability on flood risk has as yet hardly been studied, despite the fact that: (a) in other fields (drought, hurricane damage, food production) this variability is as important for policy and practice as long term change; and (b) climate variability has a strong influence in peak riverflows around the world. To address this issue, this contribution illustrates the influence of ENSO-driven climate variability on flood risk, at both the globally aggregated scale and the scale of countries and large river basins. Although it exerts significant and widespread influences on flood peak discharges in many parts of the world, we show that ENSO does not have a statistically significant influence on flood risk once aggregated to global totals. At the scale of individual countries, though, strong relationships exist over large parts of the Earth's surface. For example, we find particularly strong anomalies of flood risk in El Niño or La Niña years (compared to all years) in southern Africa, parts of western Africa, Australia, parts of Central Eurasia (especially for El Niño), the western USA (especially for La Niña), and parts of South America. These findings have large implications for both decadal climate-risk projections and long-term future climate change research. We carried out the research by simulating daily river discharge using a global hydrological model (PCR-GLOBWB), forced with gridded climate reanalysis time-series. From this, we derived peak annual flood volumes for large-scale river basins globally. These were used to force a global inundation model (dynRout) to map inundation extent and depth for return periods between 2 and 1000 years, under El Niño conditions, neutral conditions, and La Niña conditions. Theses flood hazard maps were combined with global datasets on socioeconomic variables such as population and income to represent the socioeconomic exposure to flooding, and depth-damage curves to represent vulnerability.

Integration of Linear Dynamic Emission and Climate Models with Air Traffic Simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sridhar, Banavar; Ng, Hok K.; Chen, Neil Y.

2012-01-01

Future air traffic management systems are required to balance the conflicting objectives of maximizing safety and efficiency of traffic flows while minimizing the climate impact of aviation emissions and contrails. Integrating emission and climate models together with air traffic simulations improve the understanding of the complex interaction between the physical climate system, carbon and other greenhouse gas emissions and aviation activity. This paper integrates a national-level air traffic simulation and optimization capability with simple climate models and carbon cycle models, and climate metrics to assess the impact of aviation on climate. The capability can be used to make trade-offs between extra fuel cost and reduction in global surface temperature change. The parameters in the simulation can be used to evaluate the effect of various uncertainties in emission models and contrails and the impact of different decision horizons. Alternatively, the optimization results from the simulation can be used as inputs to other tools that monetize global climate impacts like the FAA s Aviation Environmental Portfolio Management Tool for Impacts.

Future battlegrounds for conservation under global change

PubMed Central

Lee, Tien Ming; Jetz, Walter

2008-01-01

Global biodiversity is under significant threat from the combined effects of human-induced climate and land-use change. Covering 12% of the Earth's terrestrial surface, protected areas are crucial for conserving biodiversity and supporting ecological processes beneficial to human well-being, but their selection and design are usually uninformed about future global change. Here, we quantify the exposure of the global reserve network to projected climate and land-use change according to the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment and set these threats in relation to the conservation value and capacity of biogeographic and geopolitical regions. We find that geographical patterns of past human impact on the land cover only poorly predict those of forecasted change, thus revealing the inadequacy of existing global conservation prioritization templates. Projected conservation risk, measured as regional levels of land-cover change in relation to area protected, is the greatest at high latitudes (due to climate change) and tropics/subtropics (due to land-use change). Only some high-latitude nations prone to high conservation risk are also of high conservation value, but their high relative wealth may facilitate additional conservation efforts. In contrast, most low-latitude nations tend to be of high conservation value, but they often have limited capacity for conservation which may exacerbate the global biodiversity extinction crisis. While our approach will clearly benefit from improved land-cover projections and a thorough understanding of how species range will shift under climate change, our results provide a first global quantitative demonstration of the urgent need to consider future environmental change in reserve-based conservation planning. They further highlight the pressing need for new reserves in target regions and support a much extended ‘north–south’ transfer of conservation resources that maximizes biodiversity conservation while mitigating global climate change. PMID:18302999

Population dynamics and climate change: what are the links?

PubMed

Stephenson, Judith; Newman, Karen; Mayhew, Susannah

2010-06-01

Climate change has been described as the biggest global health threat of the 21(st) century. World population is projected to reach 9.1 billion by 2050, with most of this growth in developing countries. While the principal cause of climate change is high consumption in the developed countries, its impact will be greatest on people in the developing world. Climate change and population can be linked through adaptation (reducing vulnerability to the adverse effects of climate change) and, more controversially, through mitigation (reducing the greenhouse gases that cause climate change). The contribution of low-income, high-fertility countries to global carbon emissions has been negligible to date, but is increasing with the economic development that they need to reduce poverty. Rapid population growth endangers human development, provision of basic services and poverty eradication and weakens the capacity of poor communities to adapt to climate change. Significant mass migration is likely to occur in response to climate change and should be regarded as a legitimate response to the effects of climate change. Linking population dynamics with climate change is a sensitive issue, but family planning programmes that respect and protect human rights can bring a remarkable range of benefits. Population dynamics have not been integrated systematically into climate change science. The contribution of population growth, migration, urbanization, ageing and household composition to mitigation and adaptation programmes needs urgent investigation.

Climate-driven tree mortality: insights from the pinon pine die-off in the United States

Treesearch

Jeffrey A. Hicke; Melanie J. B. Zeppel

2013-01-01

The global climate is changing, and a range of negative effects on plants has already been observed and will likely continue into the future. One of the most apparent consequences of climate change is widespread tree mortality (Fig. 1). Extensive tree die-offs resulting from recent climate change have been documented across a range of forest types on all forested...

Climate change impacts on global rainfed agricultural land availability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, X.; Cai, X.

2010-12-01

Global rainfed agricultural land availability can be subject to significant changes in both magnitude and spatial distribution due to climate change. We assess the possible changes using current and projected climate data from thirteen general circulation models (GCMs) under two emission scenarios, A1B & B1, together with global databases on land, including soil properties and slope. Two ensemble methods with the set of GCMs, Simple Average Method (SAM) and Root Mean Square Error Ensemble Method (RMSEMM), are employed to abate uncertainty involved in global GCM projections for assembling regional climate. Fuzzy logic, which handles land classification in an approximate yet efficient way, is adopted to estimate the land suitability through empirically determined membership functions and fuzzy rules chosen through a learning process based on remote sensed crop land products. Land suitability under five scenarios, which include the present-climate baseline scenario and four projected scenarios, A1B-SAM, A1B-RMSEMM, B1-SAM, and B1-RMSEMM, are assessed for both global and seven important agricultural regions in the world, Africa, China, India, Europe (excluding Russia), Russia, South America, and U.S. It is found that countries at the high latitudes of north hemisphere are more likely to benefit from climate change with respect to agricultural land availability; while countries at mid- and low latitudes may suffer different levels of loss of potential arable land. Expansions of the gross potential arable land are likely to occur in regions at the north high latitudes, including Russia, North China and U.S., while land shrinking can be expected in South America, Africa, India and Europe. Although the greatest potential for agricultural expansion lies in Africa and South America, with current cultivated land accounting for 20% and 13% respectively of the net potential arable land, negative effects from climate change may decline the potential. In summary, climate change is likely to alter the global distribution of potential rainfed arable land and further influence agricultural production and related socio-economic aspects around the end of this century. Global suitable rainfed agricultural land (can be used for regular crops) changes between A1B-SAM scenario based on 2070-2099 averaged climate data and baseline scenario simulated using 1961-1990 averaged climate data

Is This Global Warming? Communicating the Intangibles of Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Warner, L.; Henson, R.

2004-05-01

Unlike weather, which is immediate, tangible, and relevant on a daily basis, climate change is long-term, slow to evolve, and often difficult to relate to the public's daily concerns. By explaining global-change research to wide and diverse audiences through a variety of vehicles, including publications, exhibits, Web sites, and television B-roll, UCAR has gained experience and perspective on the challenges involved. This talk will explore some of the lessons learned and some of the key difficulties that face global-change communicators, including: --The lack of definitive findings on regional effects of global change -- The long time frame in which global change plays out, versus the short attention span of media, the public, and policy makers --The use of weather events as news pegs (they pique interest, but they may not be good exemplars of global change and are difficult to relate directly to changes in greenhouse-gas emissions) --The perils of the traditional journalistic technique of point-counterpoint in discussing climate change --The presence of strong personal/political convictions among various interest groups and how these affect the message(s) conveyed

A Massive Open Online Course (MOOC) on Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Somerville, R. C. J.

2015-12-01

A climate change MOOC is a way to reach a global audience of many thousands of students. What was it like to teach climate change to an invisible class over the Internet, and how well did it work? The need to educate many people about climate change seems obvious. Climate change is one of the most important existential issues of our time. Sound science can inform wise policy, and coping successfully with climate change is surely an urgent global challenge that requires scientific input and a scientifically informed public. Today many scientists have opportunities to communicate what science has learned about climate and climate change. Yet being a scientific expert on these subjects does not necessarily mean having the skills to communicate effectively to a broad audience. Like learning to ski or to drive a car skillfully, learning to communicate climate science well takes time and effort. The MOOC format has its own special challenges. Effective communication should always resemble a conversation rather than a monologue, but a conversation can be difficult when the teacher will never see or hear from the great majority of students in the class. In addition, a well-funded and effective professional disinformation campaign has been successful in sowing widespread confusion about climate change. As a result, many people mistakenly think climate change science is unreliable or is controversial within the expert community. One can expect that some of the students taking the MOOC will have been influenced by this sort of erroneous information. Thus, one appealing topic to include in a MOOC on climate change is to give useful guidelines for recognizing and rejecting junk science and disinformation. This talk will describe one climate scientist's first-person participation in teaching a climate change MOOC.

Carbon dioxide emission implications if hydrofluorocarbons are regulated: a refrigeration case study.

PubMed

Blowers, Paul; Lownsbury, James M

2010-03-01

The U.S. is strongly considering regulating hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) due to their global climate change forcing effects. A drop-in replacement hydrofluoroether has been evaluated using a gate-to-grave life cycle assessment of greenhouse gas emissions for the trade-offs between direct and indirect carbon dioxide equivalent emissions compared to a current HFC and a historically used refrigerant. The results indicate current regulations being considered may increase global climate change.

Regional cooling caused recent New Zealand glacier advances in a period of global warming.

PubMed

Mackintosh, Andrew N; Anderson, Brian M; Lorrey, Andrew M; Renwick, James A; Frei, Prisco; Dean, Sam M

2017-02-14

Glaciers experienced worldwide retreat during the twentieth and early twenty first centuries, and the negative trend in global glacier mass balance since the early 1990s is predominantly a response to anthropogenic climate warming. The exceptional terminus advance of some glaciers during recent global warming is thought to relate to locally specific climate conditions, such as increased precipitation. In New Zealand, at least 58 glaciers advanced between 1983 and 2008, and Franz Josef and Fox glaciers advanced nearly continuously during this time. Here we show that the glacier advance phase resulted predominantly from discrete periods of reduced air temperature, rather than increased precipitation. The lower temperatures were associated with anomalous southerly winds and low sea surface temperature in the Tasman Sea region. These conditions result from variability in the structure of the extratropical atmospheric circulation over the South Pacific. While this sequence of climate variability and its effect on New Zealand glaciers is unusual on a global scale, it remains consistent with a climate system that is being modified by humans.

Regional cooling caused recent New Zealand glacier advances in a period of global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mackintosh, Andrew N.; Anderson, Brian M.; Lorrey, Andrew M.; Renwick, James A.; Frei, Prisco; Dean, Sam M.

2017-02-01

Glaciers experienced worldwide retreat during the twentieth and early twenty first centuries, and the negative trend in global glacier mass balance since the early 1990s is predominantly a response to anthropogenic climate warming. The exceptional terminus advance of some glaciers during recent global warming is thought to relate to locally specific climate conditions, such as increased precipitation. In New Zealand, at least 58 glaciers advanced between 1983 and 2008, and Franz Josef and Fox glaciers advanced nearly continuously during this time. Here we show that the glacier advance phase resulted predominantly from discrete periods of reduced air temperature, rather than increased precipitation. The lower temperatures were associated with anomalous southerly winds and low sea surface temperature in the Tasman Sea region. These conditions result from variability in the structure of the extratropical atmospheric circulation over the South Pacific. While this sequence of climate variability and its effect on New Zealand glaciers is unusual on a global scale, it remains consistent with a climate system that is being modified by humans.

Regional cooling caused recent New Zealand glacier advances in a period of global warming

PubMed Central

Mackintosh, Andrew N.; Anderson, Brian M.; Lorrey, Andrew M.; Renwick, James A.; Frei, Prisco; Dean, Sam M.

2017-01-01

Glaciers experienced worldwide retreat during the twentieth and early twenty first centuries, and the negative trend in global glacier mass balance since the early 1990s is predominantly a response to anthropogenic climate warming. The exceptional terminus advance of some glaciers during recent global warming is thought to relate to locally specific climate conditions, such as increased precipitation. In New Zealand, at least 58 glaciers advanced between 1983 and 2008, and Franz Josef and Fox glaciers advanced nearly continuously during this time. Here we show that the glacier advance phase resulted predominantly from discrete periods of reduced air temperature, rather than increased precipitation. The lower temperatures were associated with anomalous southerly winds and low sea surface temperature in the Tasman Sea region. These conditions result from variability in the structure of the extratropical atmospheric circulation over the South Pacific. While this sequence of climate variability and its effect on New Zealand glaciers is unusual on a global scale, it remains consistent with a climate system that is being modified by humans. PMID:28195582

Between Earth and Sky - Climate Change on the Last Frontier

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weindorf, David; Hunton, Paul

2017-04-01

Globally, Gelisols comprise 11.26 million km2; 8.6% of earth's surface. These soils effectively sequester 25% of global soil organic carbon. Global climate change has disproportionately affected arctic regions of the world, accelerating warming, erosion events, and altering soils and ecosystems. While many documentary films have touched on global climate change, this film is the first to consider the critical role soils play in the biogeochemical carbon cycle. Between Earth and Sky is a feature length documentary filmed in 4K which presents both the science of soil/climate dynamics whilst integrating the perspective of native Alaskans and respected elders of the community who provide personal accounts of changes observed over the past decades in Alaska. More than 40 scientists from universities, governmental research units, and consultancies deconstruct this complex topic to explain how soils form an integral part of the carbon cycle in arctic environments. This presentation will cover the development of the film from initial concepts, writing, fundraising, and project development, through filming on-site, post-production, marketing, and outreach plans.

Collaborative Research: Quantifying Climate Feedbacks of the Terrestrial Biosphere under Thawing Permafrost Conditions in the Arctic

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Melillo, Jerry

Our overall goal in this research was to quantify the potential for threshold changes in natural emission rates of trace gases, particularly methane and carbon dioxide, from pan-arctic terrestrial systems under the spectrum of anthropogenically-forced climate warming, and the conditions under which these emissions provide a strong feedback mechanism to global climate warming. This goal was motivated under the premise that polar amplification of global climate warming will induce widespread thaw and degradation of the permafrost, and would thus cause substantial changes to the landscape of wetlands and lakes, especially thermokarst (thaw) lakes, across the Arctic. Through a suite ofmore » numerical experiments that encapsulate the fundamental processes governing methane emissions and carbon exchanges – as well as their coupling to the global climate system - we tested the following hypothesis in the proposed research: There exists a climate warming threshold beyond which permafrost degradation becomes widespread and stimulates large increases in methane emissions (via thermokarst lakes and poorly-drained wetland areas upon thawing permafrost along with microbial metabolic responses to higher temperatures) and increases in carbon dioxide emissions from well-drained areas. Besides changes in biogeochemistry, this threshold will also influence global energy dynamics through effects on surface albedo, evapotranspiration and water vapor. These changes would outweigh any increased uptake of carbon (e.g. from peatlands and higher plant photosynthesis) and would result in a strong, positive feedback to global climate warming. In collaboration with our Purdue and MIT colleagues, we have attempted to quantify global climate warming effects on land-atmosphere interactions, land-river network interactions, permafrost degradation, vegetation shifts, and land use influence water, carbon, and nitrogen fluxes to and from terrestrial ecosystems in the pan-arctic along with their uncertainties. Based on our study results along with a review of observed and projected climate changes in Northern Eurasia by others, we have also outlined a more integrated modelling approach that may be developed and applied in future studies to better capture the influence of earth system feedbacks and human activities on the evolution of climate change effects over time. Specifically, we have examined: 1) how evapotranspiration and water availability have been changing in Northern Eurasia and may change in the future including the impact of forcing uncertainties (Liu et al., 2013, 2014, 2015); 2) how soil consumption of atmospheric methane across the globe have been influenced and may be influenced by climate change and nitrogen deposition during the 20th and 21st centuries (Zhuang et al., 2013); 3) how wetland inundation extent influences net CO2 and CH4 fluxes from northern high latitudes (Zhuang et al., 2015); 4) the relative effects of various environmental factors (including permafrost degradation) on terrestrial dissolved organic carbon (DOC) loading of river networks across the pan-Arctic and how they have changed over the 20th century (Kicklighter et al., 2013); 5) the impacts of recent and future permafrost thaw on land-atmosphere greenhouse gas exchange across the pan-Arctic (Gao et al., 2012, 2013; Hayes et al., 2014; Kicklighter et al. 2015a, 2018); 6) how climate-induced vegetation shifts may affect carbon fluxes and future land use in Northern Eurasia (Jiang et al., 2012, 2016; Kicklighter et al., 2014a) and the globe (Zhuang et al. 2015b); 7) the relative importance of legacies from past land use, future land-use change and climate change on projections of terrestrial carbon fluxes (Monier et al., 2015; Kicklighter et al., 2016); and 8) how the effects of earth system feedbacks and human activities can be better incorporated in assessments of climate change impacts (Monier et al., 2017; Groisman et al., 2018).« less

Climate change air toxic co-reduction in the context of macroeconomic modelling.

PubMed

Crawford-Brown, Douglas; Chen, Pi-Cheng; Shi, Hsiu-Ching; Chao, Chia-Wei

2013-08-15

This paper examines the health implications of global PM reduction accompanying greenhouse gas emissions reductions in the 180 national economies of the global macroeconomy. A human health effects module based on empirical data on GHG emissions, PM emissions, background PM concentrations, source apportionment and human health risk coefficients is used to estimate reductions in morbidity and mortality from PM exposures globally as co-reduction of GHG reductions. These results are compared against the "fuzzy bright line" that often underlies regulatory decisions for environmental toxics, and demonstrate that the risk reduction through PM reduction would usually be considered justified in traditional risk-based decisions for environmental toxics. It is shown that this risk reduction can be on the order of more than 4 × 10(-3) excess lifetime mortality risk, with global annual cost savings of slightly more than $10B, when uniform GHG reduction measures across all sectors of the economy form the basis for climate policy ($2.2B if only Annex I nations reduce). Consideration of co-reduction of PM-10 within a climate policy framework harmonized with other environmental policies can therefore be an effective driver of climate policy. An error analysis comparing results of the current model against those of significantly more spatially resolved models at city and national scales indicates errors caused by the low spatial resolution of the global model used here may be on the order of a factor of 2. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Climate legacies drive global soil carbon stocks in terrestrial ecosystems

PubMed Central

Delgado-Baquerizo, Manuel; Eldridge, David J.; Maestre, Fernando T.; Karunaratne, Senani B.; Trivedi, Pankaj; Reich, Peter B.; Singh, Brajesh K.

2017-01-01

Climatic conditions shift gradually over millennia, altering the rates at which carbon (C) is fixed from the atmosphere and stored in the soil. However, legacy impacts of past climates on current soil C stocks are poorly understood. We used data from more than 5000 terrestrial sites from three global and regional data sets to identify the relative importance of current and past (Last Glacial Maximum and mid-Holocene) climatic conditions in regulating soil C stocks in natural and agricultural areas. Paleoclimate always explained a greater amount of the variance in soil C stocks than current climate at regional and global scales. Our results indicate that climatic legacies help determine global soil C stocks in terrestrial ecosystems where agriculture is highly dependent on current climatic conditions. Our findings emphasize the importance of considering how climate legacies influence soil C content, allowing us to improve quantitative predictions of global C stocks under different climatic scenarios. PMID:28439540

FUPSOL: Modelling the Future and Past Solar Influence on Earth Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anet, J. G.; Rozanov, E.; Peter, T.

2012-04-01

Global warming is becoming one of the main threats to mankind. There is growing evidence that anthropogenic greenhouse gases have become the dominant factor since about 1970. At the same time natural factors of climate change such as solar and volcanic forcings cannot be neglected on longer time scales. Despite growing scientific efforts over the last decades in both, observations and simulations, the uncertainty of the solar contribution to the past climate change remained unacceptably high (IPCC, 2007), the reasons being on one hand missing observations of solar irradiance prior to the satellite era, and on the other hand a majority of models so far not including all processes relevant for solar-climate interactions. This project aims at elucidating the processes governing the effects of solar activity variations on Earth's climate. We use the state-of-the-art coupled atmosphere-ocean-chemistry-climate model (AOCCM) SOCOL (Schraner et al, 2008) developed in Switzerland by coupling the community Earth System Model (ESM) COSMOS distributed by MPI for Meteorology (Hamburg, Germany) with a comprehensive atmospheric chemistry module. The model solves an extensive set of equations describing the dynamics of the atmosphere and ocean, radiative transfer, transport of species, their chemical transformations, cloud formation and the hydrological cycle. The intention is to show how past solar variations affected climate and how the decrease in solar forcing expected for the next decades will affect climate on global and regional scales. We will simulate the global climate system behavior during Dalton minimum (1790 and 1830) and first half of 21st century with a series of multiyear ensemble experiments and perform these experiments using all known anthropogenic and natural climate forcing taken in different combinations to understand the effects of solar irradiance in different spectral regions and particle precipitation variability. Further on, we will quantify the solar influence on global climate in the future by evaluating the simulations and using information from past analogs such as the Dalton minimum. In the end, the project aims at reducing the uncertainty of the solar contribution to past and future climate change, which so far remained high despite many years of analyses of observational records and theoretical investigations with climate models of different complexity.

The essential interactions between understanding climate variability and climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neelin, J. D.

2017-12-01

Global change is sometimes perceived as a field separate from other aspects of atmospheric and oceanic sciences. Despite the long history of communication between the scientific communities studying global change and those studying interannual variability and weather, increasing specialization and conflicting societal demands on the fields can put these interactions at risk. At the same time, current trajectories for greenhouse gas emissions imply substantial adaptation to climate change will be necessary. Instead of simply projecting effects to be avoided, the field is increasingly being asked to provide regional-level information for specific adaptation strategies—with associated requirements for increased precision on projections. For extreme events, challenges include validating models for rare events, especially for events that are unprecedented in the historical record. These factors will be illustrated with examples of information transfer to climate change from work on fundamental climate processes aimed originally at timescales from hours to interannual. Work to understand the effects that control probability distributions of moisture, temperature and precipitation in historical weather can yield new factors to examine for the changes in the extremes of these distributions under climate change. Surprisingly simple process models can give insights into the behavior of vastly more complex climate models. Observation systems and model ensembles aimed at weather and interannual variations prove valuable for global change and vice versa. Work on teleconnections in the climate system, such as the remote impacts of El Niño, is informing analysis of projected regional rainfall change over California. Young scientists need to prepare to work across the full spectrum of climate variability and change, and to communicate their findings, as they and our society head for future that is more interesting than optimal.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Franklin, Janet; Serra-Diaz, Josep M.; Syphard, Alexandra D.

Anthropogenic drivers of global change include rising atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gasses and resulting changes in the climate, as well as nitrogen deposition, biotic invasions, altered disturbance regimes, and land-use change. Predicting the effects of global change on terrestrial plant communities is crucial because of the ecosystem services vegetation provides, from climate regulation to forest products. In this article, we present a framework for detecting vegetation changes and attributing them to global change drivers that incorporates multiple lines of evidence from spatially extensive monitoring networks, distributed experiments, remotely sensed data, and historical records. Based on amore » literature review, we summarize observed changes and then describe modeling tools that can forecast the impacts of multiple drivers on plant communities in an era of rapid change. Observed responses to changes in temperature, water, nutrients, land use, and disturbance show strong sensitivity of ecosystem productivity and plant population dynamics to water balance and long-lasting effects of disturbance on plant community dynamics. Persistent effects of land-use change and human-altered fire regimes on vegetation can overshadow or interact with climate change impacts. Models forecasting plant community responses to global change incorporate shifting ecological niches, population dynamics, species interactions, spatially explicit disturbance, ecosystem processes, and plant functional responses. Lastly, monitoring, experiments, and models evaluating multiple change drivers are needed to detect and predict vegetation changes in response to 21st century global change.« less

A modeling study of irrigation effects on global surface water and groundwater resources under a changing climate

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Leng, Guoyong; Huang, Maoyi; Tang, Qiuhong

In this paper, the effects of irrigation on global surface water (SW) and groundwater (GW) resources are investigated by performing simulations using Community Land Model 4.0 (CLM4) at 0.5-degree resolution driven by downscaled/bias-corrected historical simulations and future projections from five General Circulation Models (GCMs) for 1950-2099. For each climate scenario, three sets of numerical experiments were configured: (1) a control experiment (CTRL) in which all crops are assumed to be rainfed; (2) an irrigation experiment (IRRIG) in which the irrigation module using only SW for irrigation is activated; and (3) a groundwater pumping experiment (PUMP) in which a groundwater pumpingmore » scheme coupled with the irrigation module is activated for conjunctive use of SW and GW for irrigation. The parameters associated with irrigation and groundwater pumping are calibrated based on a global inventory of census-based SW and GW use compiled by the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO). Our results suggest that irrigation could lead to two major opposing effects: SW depletion/GW accumulation in regions with irrigation primarily fed by SW, and SW accumulation/GW depletion in regions with irrigation fed primarily by GW. Furthermore, irrigation depending primarily on SW tends to have larger impacts on low-flow than high-flow conditions, suggesting the potential to increase vulnerability to drought. By the end of the 21st century (2070-2099), climate change significantly increases (relative to 1971-2000) irrigation water demand across the world. Combined with the increased temporal-spatial variability of water supply, this may lead to severe issues of local water scarcity for irrigation. Regionally, irrigation has the potential to aggravate/alleviate climate-induced changes of SW/GW although such effects are negligible when averaged globally. Our results emphasize the importance of accounting for irrigation effects and irrigation sources in regional climate change impact assessment.« less

A modeling study of irrigation effects on global surface water and groundwater resources under a changing climate

DOE PAGES

Leng, Guoyong; Huang, Maoyi; Tang, Qiuhong; ...

2015-08-25

In this paper, the effects of irrigation on global surface water (SW) and groundwater (GW) resources are investigated by performing simulations using Community Land Model 4.0 (CLM4) at 0.5-degree resolution driven by downscaled/bias-corrected historical simulations and future projections from five General Circulation Models (GCMs) for 1950-2099. For each climate scenario, three sets of numerical experiments were configured: (1) a control experiment (CTRL) in which all crops are assumed to be rainfed; (2) an irrigation experiment (IRRIG) in which the irrigation module using only SW for irrigation is activated; and (3) a groundwater pumping experiment (PUMP) in which a groundwater pumpingmore » scheme coupled with the irrigation module is activated for conjunctive use of SW and GW for irrigation. The parameters associated with irrigation and groundwater pumping are calibrated based on a global inventory of census-based SW and GW use compiled by the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO). Our results suggest that irrigation could lead to two major opposing effects: SW depletion/GW accumulation in regions with irrigation primarily fed by SW, and SW accumulation/GW depletion in regions with irrigation fed primarily by GW. Furthermore, irrigation depending primarily on SW tends to have larger impacts on low-flow than high-flow conditions, suggesting the potential to increase vulnerability to drought. By the end of the 21st century (2070-2099), climate change significantly increases (relative to 1971-2000) irrigation water demand across the world. Combined with the increased temporal-spatial variability of water supply, this may lead to severe issues of local water scarcity for irrigation. Regionally, irrigation has the potential to aggravate/alleviate climate-induced changes of SW/GW although such effects are negligible when averaged globally. Our results emphasize the importance of accounting for irrigation effects and irrigation sources in regional climate change impact assessment.« less

Imprints of AMOC Perturbation in the Intermediate water of Equatorial Atlantic during the Last Interglacial Improved

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weldeab, S.

2014-12-01

Understanding of the last interglacial (LIG) is critical for the assessment of long-term impact of global warming on the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and climate. Relative to the Millennium, air temperature over Greenland and eustatic sea-level during the LIG was higher by 8±4˚C and 4-8 m, with a considerable oscillation in the rate of meltwater input (NEEM Community rembers, Nature, v.493, p.489; Kopp et al., Nature, v. 462, p. 863) . The impact of millennial-scale LIG meltwater input on the AMOC and global climate is, however, less understood. Here we present a highly resolved, benthic foraminiferal multi-proxy record from the eastern equatorial Atlantic. The record shows that the LIG was punctuated by at least two episodes of reduced AMOC whose impact on the global climate varied considerably. While the event between 126,000 and 123,800 years ago lacks imprints on available global climate records, the AMOC perturbation between 129,000 and 128,000 years ago provides a causative link to a rapid increase of atmospheric CO2, peak air warming over Antarctica, and a slow down of the rate of global monsoon intensification. We suggest that the rate of meltwater input into the North Atlantic and the size of remanent Greenland ice sheet was critical in determining the degree of AMOC reduction and its effect on the interhemispheric climate.

Land radiative management as contributor to regional-scale climate adaptation and mitigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Phipps, Steven J.; Pitman, Andrew J.; Hirsch, Annette L.; Davin, Edouard L.; Donat, Markus G.; Hirschi, Martin; Lenton, Andrew; Wilhelm, Micah; Kravitz, Ben

2018-02-01

Greenhouse gas emissions urgently need to be reduced. Even with a step up in mitigation, the goal of limiting global temperature rise to well below 2 °C remains challenging. Consequences of missing these goals are substantial, especially on regional scales. Because progress in the reduction of carbon dioxide emissions has been slow, climate engineering schemes are increasingly being discussed. But global schemes remain controversial and have important shortcomings. A reduction of global mean temperature through global-scale management of solar radiation could lead to strong regional disparities and affect rainfall patterns. On the other hand, active management of land radiative effects on a regional scale represents an alternative option of climate engineering that has been little discussed. Regional land radiative management could help to counteract warming, in particular hot extremes in densely populated and important agricultural regions. Regional land radiative management also raises some ethical issues, and its efficacy would be limited in time and space, depending on crop growing periods and constraints on agricultural management. But through its more regional focus and reliance on tested techniques, regional land radiative management avoids some of the main shortcomings associated with global radiation management. We argue that albedo-related climate benefits of land management should be considered more prominently when assessing regional-scale climate adaptation and mitigation as well as ecosystem services.

Climate impacts on global hot spots of marine biodiversity

PubMed Central

Ramírez, Francisco; Afán, Isabel; Davis, Lloyd S.; Chiaradia, André

2017-01-01

Human activities drive environmental changes at scales that could potentially cause ecosystem collapses in the marine environment. We combined information on marine biodiversity with spatial assessments of the impacts of climate change to identify the key areas to prioritize for the conservation of global marine biodiversity. This process identified six marine regions of exceptional biodiversity based on global distributions of 1729 species of fish, 124 marine mammals, and 330 seabirds. Overall, these hot spots of marine biodiversity coincide with areas most severely affected by global warming. In particular, these marine biodiversity hot spots have undergone local to regional increasing water temperatures, slowing current circulation, and decreasing primary productivity. Furthermore, when we overlapped these hot spots with available industrial fishery data, albeit coarser than our estimates of climate impacts, they suggest a worrying coincidence whereby the world’s richest areas for marine biodiversity are also those areas mostly affected by both climate change and industrial fishing. In light of these findings, we offer an adaptable framework for determining local to regional areas of special concern for the conservation of marine biodiversity. This has exposed the need for finer-scaled fishery data to assist in the management of global fisheries if the accumulative, but potentially preventable, effect of fishing on climate change impacts is to be minimized within areas prioritized for marine biodiversity conservation. PMID:28261659

Challenges and Opportunities for Integrating Social Science Perspectives into Climate and Global Change Assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Larson, E. K.; Li, J.; Zycherman, A.

2017-12-01

Integration of social science into climate and global change assessments is fundamental for improving understanding of the drivers, impacts and vulnerability of climate change, and the social, cultural and behavioral challenges related to climate change responses. This requires disciplinary and interdisciplinary knowledge as well as integrational and translational tools for linking this knowledge with the natural and physical sciences. The USGCRP's Social Science Coordinating Committee (SSCC) is tasked with this challenge and is working to integrate relevant social, economic and behavioral knowledge into processes like sustained assessments. This presentation will discuss outcomes from a recent SSCC workshop, "Social Science Perspectives on Climate Change" and their applications to sustained assessments. The workshop brought academic social scientists from four disciplines - anthropology, sociology, geography and archaeology - together with federal scientists and program managers to discuss three major research areas relevant to the USGCRP and climate assessments: (1) innovative tools, methods, and analyses to clarify the interactions of human and natural systems under climate change, (2) understanding of factors contributing to differences in social vulnerability between and within communities under climate change, and (3) social science perspectives on drivers of global climate change. These disciplines, collectively, emphasize the need to consider socio-cultural, political, economic, geographic, and historic factors, and their dynamic interactions, to understand climate change drivers, social vulnerability, and mitigation and adaptation responses. They also highlight the importance of mixed quantitative and qualitative methods to explain impacts, vulnerability, and responses at different time and spatial scales. This presentation will focus on major contributions of the social sciences to climate and global change research. We will discuss future directions for sustained assessments that integrate and reflect the social science understanding of the complex relationships between social and natural worlds in a changing climate, and factors that impact effective mitigation and adaptation strategies that address risks and vulnerabilities of climate change.

Projection of Summer Climate on Tokyo Metropolitan Area using Pseudo Global Warming Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adachi, S. A.; Kimura, F.; Kusaka, H.; Hara, M.

2010-12-01

Recent surface air temperature observations in most of urban areas show the remarkable increasing trend affected by the global warming and the heat island effects. There are many populous areas in Japan. In such areas, the effects of land-use change and urbanization on the local climate are not negligible (Fujibe, 2010). The heat stress for citizen there is concerned to swell moreover in the future. Therefore, spatially detailed climate projection is required for making adaptation and mitigation plans. This study focuses on the Tokyo metropolitan area (TMA) in summer and aims to estimate the local climate change over the TMA in 2070s using a regional climate model. The Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) was used for downscaling. A single layer urban canopy model (Kusaka et al., 2001) is built into RAMS as a parameterization expressing the features of urban surface. We performed two experiments for estimating present and future climate. In the present climate simulation, the initial and boundary conditions for RAMS are provided from the JRA-25/JCDAS. On the other hand, the Pseudo Global Warming (PGW) method (Sato et al., 2007) is applied to estimate the future climate, instead of the conventional dynamical downscaling method. The PGW method is expected to reduce the model biases in the future projection estimated by Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCM). The boundary conditions used in the PGW method is given by the PGW data, which are obtained by adding the climate monthly difference between 1990s and 2070s estimated by AOGCMs to the 6-hourly reanalysis data. In addition, the uncertainty in the regional climate projection depending on the AOGCM projections is estimated from additional downscaling experiments using the different PGW data obtained from five AOGCMs. Acknowledgment: This work was supported by the Global Environment Research Fund (S-5-3) of the Ministry of the Environment, Japan. References: 1. Fujibe, F., Int. J. Climatol., doi:10.1002/joc.2142 (2010). 2. Kusaka, H., H. Kondo, Y. Kikegawa, and F. Kimura, Bound.-Layer Meteor., 101, 329-358 (2001). 3. Sato, T., F. Kimura, and A. Kitoh, J. Hydrology, 144-154 (2007).

Climate change and environmental impacts on maternal and newborn health with focus on Arctic populations.

PubMed

Rylander, Charlotta; Odland, Jon Ø; Sandanger, Torkjel M

2011-01-01

In 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) presented a report on global warming and the impact of human activities on global warming. Later the Lancet commission identified six ways human health could be affected. Among these were not environmental factors which are also believed to be important for human health. In this paper we therefore focus on environmental factors, climate change and the predicted effects on maternal and newborn health. Arctic issues are discussed specifically considering their exposure and sensitivity to long range transported contaminants. Considering that the different parts of pregnancy are particularly sensitive time periods for the effects of environmental exposure, this review focuses on the impacts on maternal and newborn health. Environmental stressors known to affects human health and how these will change with the predicted climate change are addressed. Air pollution and food security are crucial issues for the pregnant population in a changing climate, especially indoor climate and food security in Arctic areas. The total number of environmental factors is today responsible for a large number of the global deaths, especially in young children. Climate change will most likely lead to an increase in this number. Exposure to the different environmental stressors especially air pollution will in most parts of the world increase with climate change, even though some areas might face lower exposure. Populations at risk today are believed to be most heavily affected. As for the persistent organic pollutants a warming climate leads to a remobilisation and a possible increase in food chain exposure in the Arctic and thus increased risk for Arctic populations. This is especially the case for mercury. The perspective for the next generations will be closely connected to the expected temperature changes; changes in housing conditions; changes in exposure patterns; predicted increased exposure to Mercury because of increased emissions and increased biological availability. A number of environmental stressors are predicted to increase with climate change and increasingly affecting human health. Efforts should be put on reducing risk for the next generation, thus global politics and research effort should focus on maternal and newborn health.

Organic condensation - a vital link connecting aerosol formation to climate forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riipinen, I.; Pierce, J. R.; Yli-Juuti, T.; Nieminen, T.; Häkkinen, S.; Ehn, M.; Junninen, H.; Lehtipalo, K.; Petäjä, T.; Slowik, J.; Chang, R.; Shantz, N. C.; Abbatt, J.; Leaitch, W. R.; Kerminen, V.-M.; Worsnop, D. R.; Pandis, S. N.; Donahue, N. M.; Kulmala, M.

2011-01-01

Atmospheric aerosol particles influence global climate as well as impair air quality through their effects on atmospheric visibility and human health. Ultrafine (<100 nm) particles often dominate aerosol numbers, and nucleation of atmospheric vapors is an important source of these particles. To have climatic relevance, however, the freshly-nucleated particles need to grow in size. We combine observations from two continental sites (Egbert, Canada and Hyytiälä, Finland) to show that condensation of organic vapors is a crucial factor governing the lifetimes and climatic importance of the smallest atmospheric particles. We demonstrate that state-of-the-science organic gas-particle partitioning models fail to reproduce the observations, and propose a modeling approach that is consistent with the measurements. We demonstrate the large sensitivity of climatic forcing of atmospheric aerosols to these interactions between organic vapors and the smallest atmospheric nanoparticles - highlighting the need for representing this process in global climate models.

Can increasing carbon dioxide cause climate change?

PubMed Central

Lindzen, Richard S.

1997-01-01

The realistic physical functioning of the greenhouse effect is reviewed, and the role of dynamic transport and water vapor is identified. Model errors and uncertainties are quantitatively compared with the forcing due to doubling CO2, and they are shown to be too large for reliable model evaluations of climate sensitivities. The possibility of directly measuring climate sensitivity is reviewed. A direct approach using satellite data to relate changes in globally averaged radiative flux changes at the top of the atmosphere to naturally occurring changes in global mean temperature is described. Indirect approaches to evaluating climate sensitivity involving the response to volcanic eruptions and Eocene climate change are also described. Finally, it is explained how, in principle, a climate that is insensitive to gross radiative forcing as produced by doubling CO2 might still be able to undergo major changes of the sort associated with ice ages and equable climates. PMID:11607742

Global mean temperature indicators linked to warming levels avoiding climate risks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pfleiderer, Peter; Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich; Mengel, Matthias; Rogelj, Joeri

2018-06-01

International climate policy uses global mean temperature rise limits as proxies for societally acceptable levels of climate change. These limits are informed by risk assessments which draw upon projections of climate impacts under various levels of warming. Here we illustrate that indicators used to define limits of warming and those used to track the evolution of the Earth System under climate change are not directly comparable. Depending on the methodological approach, differences can be time-variant and up to 0.2 °C for a warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. This might lead to carbon budget overestimates of about 10 years of continued year-2015 emissions, and about a 10% increase in estimated 2100 sea-level rise. Awareness of this definitional mismatch is needed for a more effective communication between scientists and decision makers, as well as between the impact and physical climate science communities.

Effects on asthma and respiratory allergy of Climate change and air pollution.

PubMed

D'Amato, Gennaro; Vitale, Carolina; De Martino, Annamaria; Viegi, Giovanni; Lanza, Maurizia; Molino, Antonio; Sanduzzi, Alessandro; Vatrella, Alessandro; Annesi-Maesano, Isabella; D'Amato, Maria

2015-01-01

The major changes to our world are those involving the atmosphere and the climate, including global warming induced by anthropogenic factors, with impact on the biosphere and human environment. Studies on the effects of climate changes on respiratory allergy are still lacking and current knowledge is provided by epidemiological and experimental studies on the relationship between allergic respiratory diseases, asthma and environmental factors, like meteorological variables, airborne allergens and air pollution. Epidemiologic studies have demonstrated that urbanization, high levels of vehicle emissions and westernized lifestyle are correlated with an increased frequency of respiratory allergy, mainly in people who live in urban areas in comparison with people living in rural areas. However, it is not easy to evaluate the impact of climate changes and air pollution on the prevalence of asthma in general and on the timing of asthma exacerbations, although the global rise in asthma prevalence and severity could be also considered an effect of air pollution and climate changes. Since airborne allergens and air pollutants are frequently increased contemporaneously in the atmosphere, enhanced IgE-mediated response to aeroallergens and enhanced airway inflammation could account for the increasing frequency of respiratory allergy and asthma in atopic subjects in the last five decades. Pollen allergy is frequently used to study the interrelationship between air pollution and respiratory allergic diseases such as rhinitis and bronchial asthma. Climatic factors (temperature, wind speed, humidity, thunderstorms, etc) can affect both components (biological and chemical) of this interaction. Scientific societies should be involved in advocacy activities, such as those realized by the Global Alliance against chronic Respiratory Diseases (GARD).

The 2 °C global warming effect on summer European tourism through different indices.

PubMed

Grillakis, Manolis G; Koutroulis, Aristeidis G; Tsanis, Ioannis K

2016-08-01

Climate and weather patterns are an essential resource for outdoor tourism activities. The projected changes in climate and weather patterns are expected to affect the future state of tourism. The present study aims to quantify the positive or negative effect of a 2 °C global warming on summertime climate comfort in the sense of exercising activities that involve light body activity. The well-established Climate Index for Tourism (CIT) and three variants of the widely used Tourism Climatic Index (TCI) were analyzed. Additionally, a new index based on TCI and CIT was tested and compared against the precious indices. Past and future climate data of five high-resolution regional climate models (RCMs) from different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) of the European Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (Euro-CORDEX) for a +2 °C period were used. The results indicate improvement in the climate comfort for the majority of European areas for the May to October period. For the June to August period, central and northern European areas are projected to improve, while marginal improvement is found for Mediterranean countries. Furthermore, in specific cases of adjacent Mediterranean areas such as the southern Iberian Peninsula, the June to August climate favorability is projected to reduce as a result of the increase to daytime temperature. The use of a set of different indices and different RCMs and RCPs samples a large fraction of the uncertainty that is crucial for providing robust regional impact information due to climate change. The analysis revealed the similarities and the differences in the magnitude of change across the different indices. Moreover, discrepancies were found in the results of different concentration pathways to the +2 °C global warming, with the RCP8.5 projecting more significant changes for some of the analyzed indices. The estimation of the TCI using different timescale climate data did not change the results on tourism significantly.

Monitoring and Modeling the Tibetan Plateau's climate system and its impact on East Asia.

PubMed

Ma, Yaoming; Ma, Weiqiang; Zhong, Lei; Hu, Zeyong; Li, Maoshan; Zhu, Zhikun; Han, Cunbo; Wang, Binbin; Liu, Xin

2017-03-13

The Tibetan Plateau is an important water source in Asia. As the "Third Pole" of the Earth, the Tibetan Plateau has significant dynamic and thermal effects on East Asian climate patterns, the Asian monsoon process and atmospheric circulation in the Northern Hemisphere. However, little systematic knowledge is available regarding the changing climate system of the Tibetan Plateau and the mechanisms underlying its impact on East Asia. This study was based on "water-cryosphere-atmosphere-biology" multi-sphere interactions, primarily considering global climate change in relation to the Tibetan Plateau -East Asia climate system and its mechanisms. This study also analyzed the Tibetan Plateau to clarify global climate change by considering multi-sphere energy and water processes. Additionally, the impacts of climate change in East Asia and the associated impact mechanisms were revealed, and changes in water cycle processes and water conversion mechanisms were studied. The changes in surface thermal anomalies, vegetation, local circulation and the atmospheric heat source on the Tibetan Plateau were studied, specifically, their effects on the East Asian monsoon and energy balance mechanisms. Additionally, the relationships between heating mechanisms and monsoon changes were explored.

Monitoring and Modeling the Tibetan Plateau’s climate system and its impact on East Asia

PubMed Central

Ma, Yaoming; Ma, Weiqiang; Zhong, Lei; Hu, Zeyong; Li, Maoshan; Zhu, Zhikun; Han, Cunbo; Wang, Binbin; Liu, Xin

2017-01-01

The Tibetan Plateau is an important water source in Asia. As the “Third Pole” of the Earth, the Tibetan Plateau has significant dynamic and thermal effects on East Asian climate patterns, the Asian monsoon process and atmospheric circulation in the Northern Hemisphere. However, little systematic knowledge is available regarding the changing climate system of the Tibetan Plateau and the mechanisms underlying its impact on East Asia. This study was based on “water-cryosphere-atmosphere-biology” multi-sphere interactions, primarily considering global climate change in relation to the Tibetan Plateau -East Asia climate system and its mechanisms. This study also analyzed the Tibetan Plateau to clarify global climate change by considering multi-sphere energy and water processes. Additionally, the impacts of climate change in East Asia and the associated impact mechanisms were revealed, and changes in water cycle processes and water conversion mechanisms were studied. The changes in surface thermal anomalies, vegetation, local circulation and the atmospheric heat source on the Tibetan Plateau were studied, specifically, their effects on the East Asian monsoon and energy balance mechanisms. Additionally, the relationships between heating mechanisms and monsoon changes were explored. PMID:28287648

Coupled Climate Model Simulations to Bracket the Impacts of Increasing Asian Aerosols Emissions and Aggressive Future Clean Air Policies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dubey, M. K.; Zhang, Y.; Sun, S.; Olsen, S.; Dean, S.; Bleck, R.; Chylek, P.; Lohmann, U.

2007-12-01

We report ensemble simulations of the climatic impacts of changing anthropogenic aerosols (sulfate, organic and black carbon), which bracket two policy scenarios: increased emissions over China and India by a factor of three over current levels and a global reduction of aerosols by a factor of ten, using the NCAR-CCSM3 and NASA- GISS coupled ocean atmosphere models. Tripling the anthropogenic aerosols over China and India has a small cooling effect (about -0.12°C) on the global mean surface air temperature with a slight reduction in global mean precipitation by ~ -0.8%. On the other hand, global reduction of anthropogenic aerosols by a factor of ten would warm the global surface temperatures by 0.4 °C - 0.8 °C in less than 10 years after the reduction takes place as well as an increase in global precipitation by 3.0% - 3.3%. Comparisons of NCAR and NASA model simulations also suggest that the indirect effects of aerosols are about 1-2 times the direct effects of aerosols. Tripling Asian anthropogenic aerosols results in regional cooling and a reduction in precipitation primarily in Asia, with cooling (warming) also noted over the high latitudes of Northern (Southern) Hemisphere. Warming and increase in precipitation in the case of global reduction of aerosols are concentrated mainly over polluted land areas in both hemispheres. Tropical regions experience large changes in precipitation in both scenarios. We provide new insights into the climate model sensitivities of global mean temperatures and rainfall to aerosol forcing. Our results underscore the urgency of reducing greenhouse gas accumulation rates as the world reduces air pollution to improve human health and that potential increased Asian pollution, offsets only a small fraction of the warming by greenhouse gases.

Microbial contributions to climate change through carbon cycle feedbacks.

PubMed

Bardgett, Richard D; Freeman, Chris; Ostle, Nicholas J

2008-08-01

There is considerable interest in understanding the biological mechanisms that regulate carbon exchanges between the land and atmosphere, and how these exchanges respond to climate change. An understanding of soil microbial ecology is central to our ability to assess terrestrial carbon cycle-climate feedbacks, but the complexity of the soil microbial community and the many ways that it can be affected by climate and other global changes hampers our ability to draw firm conclusions on this topic. In this paper, we argue that to understand the potential negative and positive contributions of soil microbes to land-atmosphere carbon exchange and global warming requires explicit consideration of both direct and indirect impacts of climate change on microorganisms. Moreover, we argue that this requires consideration of complex interactions and feedbacks that occur between microbes, plants and their physical environment in the context of climate change, and the influence of other global changes which have the capacity to amplify climate-driven effects on soil microbes. Overall, we emphasize the urgent need for greater understanding of how soil microbial ecology contributes to land-atmosphere carbon exchange in the context of climate change, and identify some challenges for the future. In particular, we highlight the need for a multifactor experimental approach to understand how soil microbes and their activities respond to climate change and consequences for carbon cycle feedbacks.