A Model for Measuring Effectiveness of an Online Course

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mashaw, Bijan

2012-01-01

As a result of this research, a quantitative model and a procedure have been developed to create an online mentoring effectiveness index (EI). To develop the model, mentoring and teaching effectiveness are defined, and then the constructs and factors of effectiveness are identified. The model's construction is based on the theory that…

Factors affecting yearly and monthly visits to Taipei Zoo

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Su, Ai-Tsen; Lin, Yann-Jou

2018-02-01

This study investigated factors affecting yearly and monthly numbers of visits to Taipei Zoo. Both linear and nonlinear regression models were used to estimate yearly visits. The results of both models showed that the "opening effect" and "animal star effect" had a significantly positive effect on yearly visits, while a SARS outbreak had a negative effect. The number of years had a significant influence on yearly visits. Results showed that the nonlinear model had better explanatory power and fitted the variations of visits better. Results of monthly model showed that monthly visits were significantly influenced by time fluctuations, weather conditions, and the animal star effect. Chinese New Year, summer vacation, numbers of holidays, and animal star exhibitions increased the number of monthly visits, while the number of days with temperatures at or below 15 °C, the number of days with temperatures at or above 30 °C, and the number of rainy days had significantly negative effects. Furthermore, the model of monthly visits showed that the animal star effect could last for over two quarters. The results of this study clarify the factors affecting visits to an outdoor recreation site and confirm the importance of meteorological factors to recreation use.

Coastal Ocean Variability off the Coast of Taiwan in Response to Typhoon Morakot: River Forcing, Atmospheric Forcing, and Cold Dome Dynamics

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-09-01

within a very short time period and in this research, we model and study the effects of this rainfall on Taiwan?s coastal oceans as a result of river...and in this research, we model and study the effects of this rainfall on Taiwan’s coastal oceans as a result of river discharge. We do this through...54 4 Results 57 4.1 Effects of Footprint Shape on the Bulk Mixing Model . . . . . . . . . 57 4.2 Effects of the Horizontal Extent of the Bulk

Numerical study on turbulence modulation in gas-particle flows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, F.; Lightstone, M. F.; Wood, P. E.

2007-01-01

A mathematical model is proposed based on the Eulerian/Lagrangian approach to account for both the particle crossing trajectory effect and the extra turbulence production due to particle wake effects. The resulting model, together with existing models from the literature, is applied to two different particle-laden flow configurations, namely a vertical pipe flow and axisymmetric downward jet flow. The results show that the proposed model is able to provide improved predictions of the experimental results.

Research on Storm-Tide Disaster Losses in China Using a New Grey Relational Analysis Model with the Dispersion of Panel Data.

PubMed

Yin, Kedong; Zhang, Ya; Li, Xuemei

2017-11-01

Owing to the difference of the sequences' orders and the surface structure in the current panel grey relational models, research results will not be unique. In addition, individual measurement of indicators and objects and the subjectivity of combined weight would significantly weaken the effective information of panel data and reduce the reliability and accuracy of research results. Therefore, we propose the concept and calculation method of dispersion of panel data, establish the grey relational model based on dispersion of panel data (DPGRA), and prove that DPGRA exhibits the effective properties of uniqueness, symmetry, and normality. To demonstrate its applicability, the proposed DPGRA model is used to research on storm-tide disaster losses in China's coastal areas. Comparing research results of three models, which are DPGRA, Euclidean distance grey relational model, and grey grid relational model, it was shown that DPGRA is more effective, feasible, and stable. It is indicated that DPGRA can entirely utilize the effective information of panel data; what's more, it can not only handle the non-uniqueness of the grey relational model's results but also improve the reliability and accuracy of research results. The research results are of great significance for coastal areas to focus on monitoring storm-tide disasters hazards, strengthen the protection measures of natural disasters, and improve the ability of disaster prevention and reduction.

Modeling Hofmeister Effects

PubMed Central

Hribar-Lee, Barbara; Vlachy, Vojko; Dill, Ken A.

2009-01-01

A two dimensional model of water, so-called Mercedes-Benz model, was used to study effects of the size of hydrophobic solute on the insertion thermodynamics in electrolyte solutions. The model was examined by the constant pressure Monte Carlo computer simulation. The results were compared with the experimental data for noble gasses and methane in water and electrolyte solution. The influence of different ions at infinite dilution on the free energy of transfer was explored. Qualitative agreement with the experimental results was obtained. The mechanism of Hofmeister effects was proposed. PMID:20161468

Modeling Hofmeister Effects.

PubMed

Hribar-Lee, Barbara; Vlachy, Vojko; Dill, Ken A

2009-03-11

A two dimensional model of water, so-called Mercedes-Benz model, was used to study effects of the size of hydrophobic solute on the insertion thermodynamics in electrolyte solutions. The model was examined by the constant pressure Monte Carlo computer simulation. The results were compared with the experimental data for noble gasses and methane in water and electrolyte solution. The influence of different ions at infinite dilution on the free energy of transfer was explored. Qualitative agreement with the experimental results was obtained. The mechanism of Hofmeister effects was proposed.

Application of Hierarchical Linear Models/Linear Mixed-Effects Models in School Effectiveness Research

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ker, H. W.

2014-01-01

Multilevel data are very common in educational research. Hierarchical linear models/linear mixed-effects models (HLMs/LMEs) are often utilized to analyze multilevel data nowadays. This paper discusses the problems of utilizing ordinary regressions for modeling multilevel educational data, compare the data analytic results from three regression…

Exploring Effects of Hypoxia on Fish and Fisheries in the Northern Gulf of Mexico using a Dynamic Spatially-Explicit Ecosystem Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Mutsert, K.; Steenbeek, J.; Lewis, K.; Buszowski, J.; Cowan, J. H., Jr.; Christensen, V.

2016-02-01

The formation of an extensive hypoxic area off the Louisiana coast has been well publicized. However, determining the effects of this hypoxic zone on fish and fisheries has proven to be more difficult. The dual effect of nutrient loading on secondary production (positive effects of bottom-up fueling, and negative effects of reduced oxygen levels) impedes the quantification of hypoxia effects on fish and fisheries. The objective of this study was to develop an ecosystem model that is able to separate the two effects, and to evaluate net effects of hypoxia on fish biomass and fisheries landings. An Ecospace model was developed using Ecopath with Ecosim software with an added plug-in to include spatially and temporally dynamic Chlorophyll a (Chl a) and dissolved oxygen (DO) values derived from a coupled physical-biological hypoxia model. Effects of hypoxia were determined by simulating scenarios with DO and Chl a included separately and combined, and a scenario without fish response to Chl a or DO. Fishing fleets were included in the model as well; fleets move to cells with highest revenue following a gravitational model. Results of this model suggest that the increases in total fish biomass and fisheries landings as a result of an increase in primary production outweigh the decreases as a result of hypoxic conditions. However, the results also demonstrated that responses were species-specific, and some species such as red snapper (Lutjanus campechanus) did suffer a net loss in biomass. Scenario-analyses with this model could be used to determine the optimal nutrient load reduction from a fisheries perspective.

Prediction of Size Effects in Notched Laminates Using Continuum Damage Mechanics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Camanho, D. P.; Maimi, P.; Davila, C. G.

2007-01-01

This paper examines the use of a continuum damage model to predict strength and size effects in notched carbon-epoxy laminates. The effects of size and the development of a fracture process zone before final failure are identified in an experimental program. The continuum damage model is described and the resulting predictions of size effects are compared with alternative approaches: the point stress and the inherent flaw models, the Linear-Elastic Fracture Mechanics approach, and the strength of materials approach. The results indicate that the continuum damage model is the most accurate technique to predict size effects in composites. Furthermore, the continuum damage model does not require any calibration and it is applicable to general geometries and boundary conditions.

The Effect of Cooperative Learning Model and Kolb Learning Styles on Learning Result of the Basics of Politics

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sugiharto

2015-01-01

The aims of this research were to determine the effect of cooperative learning model and learning styles on learning result. This quasi-experimental study employed a 2x2 treatment by level, involved independent variables, i.e. cooperative learning model and learning styles, and learning result as the dependent variable. Findings signify that: (1)…

Evaluation of model predictions of the ecological effects of 4-nonylphenol -- before and after model refinement

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hanratty, M.P.; Liber, K.

1994-12-31

The Littoral Ecosystem Risk Assessment Model (LERAM) is a bioenergetic ecosystem effects model. It links single species toxicity data to a bioenergetic model of the trophic structure of an ecosystem in order to simulate community and ecosystem level effects of chemical stressors. LERAM was used in 1992 to simulate the ecological effects of diflubenzuron. When compared to the results from a littoral enclosure study, the model exaggerated the cascading of effects through the trophic levels of the littoral ecosystem. It was hypothesized that this could be corrected by making minor changes in the representation of the littoral food web. Twomore » refinements of the model were therefore performed: (1) the plankton and macroinvertebrate model populations [eg., predatory Copepoda, herbivorous Insecta, green phytoplankton, etc.] were changed to better represent the habitat and feeding preferences of the endemic taxa; and (2) the method for modeling the microbial degradation of detritus (and the resulting nutrient remineralization) was changed from simulating bacterial populations to simulating bacterial function. Model predictions of the ecological effects of 4-nonylphenol were made before and after these refinements. Both sets of predictions were then compared to the results from a littoral enclosure study of the ecological effects of 4-nonylphenol. The changes in the LERAM predictions were then used to determine the success of the refinements, to guide. future research, and to further define LERAM`s domain of application.« less

Modeling of layered anisotropic composite material based on effective medium theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bao, Yang; Song, Jiming

2018-04-01

In this paper, we present an efficient method to simulate multilayered anisotropic composite material with effective medium theory. Effective permittivity, permeability and orientation angle for a layered anisotropic composite medium are extracted with this equivalent model. We also derive analytical expressions for effective parameters and orientation angle with low frequency (LF) limit, which will be shown in detail. Numerical results are shown in comparing extracted effective parameters and orientation angle with analytical results from low frequency limit. Good agreements are achieved to demonstrate the accuracy of our efficient model.

A compact quantum correction model for symmetric double gate metal-oxide-semiconductor field-effect transistor

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cho, Edward Namkyu; Shin, Yong Hyeon; Yun, Ilgu, E-mail: iyun@yonsei.ac.kr

2014-11-07

A compact quantum correction model for a symmetric double gate (DG) metal-oxide-semiconductor field-effect transistor (MOSFET) is investigated. The compact quantum correction model is proposed from the concepts of the threshold voltage shift (ΔV{sub TH}{sup QM}) and the gate capacitance (C{sub g}) degradation. First of all, ΔV{sub TH}{sup QM} induced by quantum mechanical (QM) effects is modeled. The C{sub g} degradation is then modeled by introducing the inversion layer centroid. With ΔV{sub TH}{sup QM} and the C{sub g} degradation, the QM effects are implemented in previously reported classical model and a comparison between the proposed quantum correction model and numerical simulationmore » results is presented. Based on the results, the proposed quantum correction model can be applicable to the compact model of DG MOSFET.« less

Refraction error correction for deformation measurement by digital image correlation at elevated temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Su, Yunquan; Yao, Xuefeng; Wang, Shen; Ma, Yinji

2017-03-01

An effective correction model is proposed to eliminate the refraction error effect caused by an optical window of a furnace in digital image correlation (DIC) deformation measurement under high-temperature environment. First, a theoretical correction model with the corresponding error correction factor is established to eliminate the refraction error induced by double-deck optical glass in DIC deformation measurement. Second, a high-temperature DIC experiment using a chromium-nickel austenite stainless steel specimen is performed to verify the effectiveness of the correction model by the correlation calculation results under two different conditions (with and without the optical glass). Finally, both the full-field and the divisional displacement results with refraction influence are corrected by the theoretical model and then compared to the displacement results extracted from the images without refraction influence. The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed theoretical correction model can effectively improve the measurement accuracy of DIC method by decreasing the refraction errors from measured full-field displacements under high-temperature environment.

A Field-Effect Transistor (FET) model for ASAP

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ming, L.

1965-01-01

The derivation of the circuitry of a field effect transistor (FET) model, the procedure for adapting the model to automated statistical analysis program (ASAP), and the results of applying ASAP on this model are described.

Adjustment for reporting bias in network meta-analysis of antidepressant trials

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Network meta-analysis (NMA), a generalization of conventional MA, allows for assessing the relative effectiveness of multiple interventions. Reporting bias is a major threat to the validity of MA and NMA. Numerous methods are available to assess the robustness of MA results to reporting bias. We aimed to extend such methods to NMA. Methods We introduced 2 adjustment models for Bayesian NMA. First, we extended a meta-regression model that allows the effect size to depend on its standard error. Second, we used a selection model that estimates the propensity of trial results being published and in which trials with lower propensity are weighted up in the NMA model. Both models rely on the assumption that biases are exchangeable across the network. We applied the models to 2 networks of placebo-controlled trials of 12 antidepressants, with 74 trials in the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) database but only 51 with published results. NMA and adjustment models were used to estimate the effects of the 12 drugs relative to placebo, the 66 effect sizes for all possible pair-wise comparisons between drugs, probabilities of being the best drug and ranking of drugs. We compared the results from the 2 adjustment models applied to published data and NMAs of published data and NMAs of FDA data, considered as representing the totality of the data. Results Both adjustment models showed reduced estimated effects for the 12 drugs relative to the placebo as compared with NMA of published data. Pair-wise effect sizes between drugs, probabilities of being the best drug and ranking of drugs were modified. Estimated drug effects relative to the placebo from both adjustment models were corrected (i.e., similar to those from NMA of FDA data) for some drugs but not others, which resulted in differences in pair-wise effect sizes between drugs and ranking. Conclusions In this case study, adjustment models showed that NMA of published data was not robust to reporting bias and provided estimates closer to that of NMA of FDA data, although not optimal. The validity of such methods depends on the number of trials in the network and the assumption that conventional MAs in the network share a common mean bias mechanism. PMID:23016799

Accounting for spatial effects in land use regression for urban air pollution modeling.

PubMed

Bertazzon, Stefania; Johnson, Markey; Eccles, Kristin; Kaplan, Gilaad G

2015-01-01

In order to accurately assess air pollution risks, health studies require spatially resolved pollution concentrations. Land-use regression (LUR) models estimate ambient concentrations at a fine spatial scale. However, spatial effects such as spatial non-stationarity and spatial autocorrelation can reduce the accuracy of LUR estimates by increasing regression errors and uncertainty; and statistical methods for resolving these effects--e.g., spatially autoregressive (SAR) and geographically weighted regression (GWR) models--may be difficult to apply simultaneously. We used an alternate approach to address spatial non-stationarity and spatial autocorrelation in LUR models for nitrogen dioxide. Traditional models were re-specified to include a variable capturing wind speed and direction, and re-fit as GWR models. Mean R(2) values for the resulting GWR-wind models (summer: 0.86, winter: 0.73) showed a 10-20% improvement over traditional LUR models. GWR-wind models effectively addressed both spatial effects and produced meaningful predictive models. These results suggest a useful method for improving spatially explicit models. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Interpretable inference on the mixed effect model with the Box-Cox transformation.

PubMed

Maruo, K; Yamaguchi, Y; Noma, H; Gosho, M

2017-07-10

We derived results for inference on parameters of the marginal model of the mixed effect model with the Box-Cox transformation based on the asymptotic theory approach. We also provided a robust variance estimator of the maximum likelihood estimator of the parameters of this model in consideration of the model misspecifications. Using these results, we developed an inference procedure for the difference of the model median between treatment groups at the specified occasion in the context of mixed effects models for repeated measures analysis for randomized clinical trials, which provided interpretable estimates of the treatment effect. From simulation studies, it was shown that our proposed method controlled type I error of the statistical test for the model median difference in almost all the situations and had moderate or high performance for power compared with the existing methods. We illustrated our method with cluster of differentiation 4 (CD4) data in an AIDS clinical trial, where the interpretability of the analysis results based on our proposed method is demonstrated. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Cerebellum as a forward but not inverse model in visuomotor adaptation task: a tDCS-based and modeling study.

PubMed

Yavari, Fatemeh; Mahdavi, Shirin; Towhidkhah, Farzad; Ahmadi-Pajouh, Mohammad-Ali; Ekhtiari, Hamed; Darainy, Mohammad

2016-04-01

Despite several pieces of evidence, which suggest that the human brain employs internal models for motor control and learning, the location of these models in the brain is not yet clear. In this study, we used transcranial direct current stimulation (tDCS) to manipulate right cerebellar function, while subjects adapt to a visuomotor task. We investigated the effect of this manipulation on the internal forward and inverse models by measuring two kinds of behavior: generalization of training in one direction to neighboring directions (as a proxy for inverse models) and localization of the hand position after movement without visual feedback (as a proxy for forward model). The experimental results showed no effect of cerebellar tDCS on generalization, but significant effect on localization. These observations support the idea that the cerebellum is a possible brain region for internal forward, but not inverse model formation. We also used a realistic human head model to calculate current density distribution in the brain. The result of this model confirmed the passage of current through the cerebellum. Moreover, to further explain some observed experimental results, we modeled the visuomotor adaptation process with the help of a biologically inspired method known as population coding. The effect of tDCS was also incorporated in the model. The results of this modeling study closely match our experimental data and provide further evidence in line with the idea that tDCS manipulates FM's function in the cerebellum.

Research on Storm-Tide Disaster Losses in China Using a New Grey Relational Analysis Model with the Dispersion of Panel Data

PubMed Central

Yin, Kedong; Zhang, Ya; Li, Xuemei

2017-01-01

Owing to the difference of the sequences’ orders and the surface structure in the current panel grey relational models, research results will not be unique. In addition, individual measurement of indicators and objects and the subjectivity of combined weight would significantly weaken the effective information of panel data and reduce the reliability and accuracy of research results. Therefore, we propose the concept and calculation method of dispersion of panel data, establish the grey relational model based on dispersion of panel data (DPGRA), and prove that DPGRA exhibits the effective properties of uniqueness, symmetry, and normality. To demonstrate its applicability, the proposed DPGRA model is used to research on storm-tide disaster losses in China’s coastal areas. Comparing research results of three models, which are DPGRA, Euclidean distance grey relational model, and grey grid relational model, it was shown that DPGRA is more effective, feasible, and stable. It is indicated that DPGRA can entirely utilize the effective information of panel data; what’s more, it can not only handle the non-uniqueness of the grey relational model’s results but also improve the reliability and accuracy of research results. The research results are of great significance for coastal areas to focus on monitoring storm–tide disasters hazards, strengthen the protection measures of natural disasters, and improve the ability of disaster prevention and reduction. PMID:29104262

Modelling the delay between pharmacokinetics and EEG effects of morphine in rats: binding kinetic versus effect compartment models.

PubMed

de Witte, Wilhelmus E A; Rottschäfer, Vivi; Danhof, Meindert; van der Graaf, Piet H; Peletier, Lambertus A; de Lange, Elizabeth C M

2018-05-18

Drug-target binding kinetics (as determined by association and dissociation rate constants, k on and k off ) can be an important determinant of the kinetics of drug action. However, the effect compartment model is used most frequently instead of a target binding model to describe hysteresis. Here we investigate when the drug-target binding model should be used in lieu of the effect compartment model. The utility of the effect compartment (EC), the target binding kinetics (TB) and the combined effect compartment-target binding kinetics (EC-TB) model were tested on either plasma (EC PL , TB PL and EC-TB PL ) or brain extracellular fluid (ECF) (EC ECF , TB ECF and EC-TB ECF ) morphine concentrations and EEG amplitude in rats. It was also analyzed when a significant shift in the time to maximal target occupancy (Tmax TO ) with increasing dose, the discriminating feature between the TB and EC model, occurs in the TB model. All TB models assumed a linear relationship between target occupancy and drug effect on the EEG amplitude. All three model types performed similarly in describing the morphine pharmacodynamics data, although the EC model provided the best statistical result. The analysis of the shift in Tmax TO (∆Tmax TO ) as a result of increasing dose revealed that ∆Tmax TO is decreasing towards zero if the k off is much smaller than the elimination rate constant or if the target concentration is larger than the initial morphine concentration. The results for the morphine PKPD modelling and the analysis of ∆Tmax TO indicate that the EC and TB models do not necessarily lead to different drug effect versus time curves for different doses if a delay between drug concentrations and drug effect (hysteresis) is described. Drawing mechanistic conclusions from successfully fitting one of these two models should therefore be avoided. Since the TB model can be informed by in vitro measurements of k on and k off , a target binding model should be considered more often for mechanistic modelling purposes.

Assessment of effectiveness of geologic isolation systems. Geologic-simulation model for a hypothetical site in the Columbia Plateau. Volume 2: results

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Foley, M.G.; Petrie, G.M.; Baldwin, A.J.

1982-06-01

This report contains the input data and computer results for the Geologic Simulation Model. This model is described in detail in the following report: Petrie, G.M., et. al. 1981. Geologic Simulation Model for a Hypothetical Site in the Columbia Plateau, Pacific Northwest Laboratory, Richland, Washington. The Geologic Simulation Model is a quasi-deterministic process-response model which simulates, for a million years into the future, the development of the geologic and hydrologic systems of the ground-water basin containing the Pasco Basin. Effects of natural processes on the ground-water hydrologic system are modeled principally by rate equations. The combined effects and synergistic interactionsmore » of different processes are approximated by linear superposition of their effects during discrete time intervals in a stepwise-integration approach.« less

Seemingly unrelated intervention time series models for effectiveness evaluation of large scale environmental remediation.

PubMed

Ip, Ryan H L; Li, W K; Leung, Kenneth M Y

2013-09-15

Large scale environmental remediation projects applied to sea water always involve large amount of capital investments. Rigorous effectiveness evaluations of such projects are, therefore, necessary and essential for policy review and future planning. This study aims at investigating effectiveness of environmental remediation using three different Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) time series models with intervention effects, including Model (1) assuming no correlation within and across variables, Model (2) assuming no correlation across variable but allowing correlations within variable across different sites, and Model (3) allowing all possible correlations among variables (i.e., an unrestricted model). The results suggested that the unrestricted SUR model is the most reliable one, consistently having smallest variations of the estimated model parameters. We discussed our results with reference to marine water quality management in Hong Kong while bringing managerial issues into consideration. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Personalized Medicine Enrichment Design for DHA Supplementation Clinical Trial.

PubMed

Lei, Yang; Mayo, Matthew S; Carlson, Susan E; Gajewski, Byron J

2017-03-01

Personalized medicine aims to match patient subpopulation to the most beneficial treatment. The purpose of this study is to design a prospective clinical trial in which we hope to achieve the highest level of confirmation in identifying and making treatment recommendations for subgroups, when the risk levels in the control arm can be ordered. This study was motivated by our goal to identify subgroups in a DHA (docosahexaenoic acid) supplementation trial to reduce preterm birth (gestational age<37 weeks) rate. We performed a meta-analysis to obtain informative prior distributions and simulated operating characteristics to ensure that overall Type I error rate was close to 0.05 in designs with three different models: independent, hierarchical, and dynamic linear models. We performed simulations and sensitivity analysis to examine the subgroup power of models and compared results to a chi-square test. We performed simulations under two hypotheses: a large overall treatment effect and a small overall treatment effect. Within each hypothesis, we designed three different subgroup effects scenarios where resulting subgroup rates are linear, flat, or nonlinear. When the resulting subgroup rates are linear or flat, dynamic linear model appeared to be the most powerful method to identify the subgroups with a treatment effect. It also outperformed other methods when resulting subgroup rates are nonlinear and the overall treatment effect is big. When the resulting subgroup rates are nonlinear and the overall treatment effect is small, hierarchical model and chi-square test did better. Compared to independent and hierarchical models, dynamic linear model tends to be relatively robust and powerful when the control arm has ordinal risk subgroups.

Regression mixture models: Does modeling the covariance between independent variables and latent classes improve the results?

PubMed Central

Lamont, Andrea E.; Vermunt, Jeroen K.; Van Horn, M. Lee

2016-01-01

Regression mixture models are increasingly used as an exploratory approach to identify heterogeneity in the effects of a predictor on an outcome. In this simulation study, we test the effects of violating an implicit assumption often made in these models – i.e., independent variables in the model are not directly related to latent classes. Results indicated that the major risk of failing to model the relationship between predictor and latent class was an increase in the probability of selecting additional latent classes and biased class proportions. Additionally, this study tests whether regression mixture models can detect a piecewise relationship between a predictor and outcome. Results suggest that these models are able to detect piecewise relations, but only when the relationship between the latent class and the predictor is included in model estimation. We illustrate the implications of making this assumption through a re-analysis of applied data examining heterogeneity in the effects of family resources on academic achievement. We compare previous results (which assumed no relation between independent variables and latent class) to the model where this assumption is lifted. Implications and analytic suggestions for conducting regression mixture based on these findings are noted. PMID:26881956

A Reduced Model for Prediction of Thermal and Rotational Effects on Turbine Tip Clearance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kypuros, Javier A.; Melcher, Kevin J.

2003-01-01

This paper describes a dynamic model that was developed to predict changes in turbine tip clearance the radial distance between the end of a turbine blade and the abradable tip seal. The clearance is estimated by using a first principles approach to model the thermal and mechanical effects of engine operating conditions on the turbine sub-components. These effects are summed to determine the resulting clearance. The model is demonstrated via a ground idle to maximum power transient and a lapse-rate takeoff transient. Results show the model demonstrates the expected pinch point behavior. The paper concludes by identifying knowledge gaps and suggesting additional research to improve the model.

Assessing NARCCAP climate model effects using spatial confidence regions.

PubMed

French, Joshua P; McGinnis, Seth; Schwartzman, Armin

2017-01-01

We assess similarities and differences between model effects for the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) climate models using varying classes of linear regression models. Specifically, we consider how the average temperature effect differs for the various global and regional climate model combinations, including assessment of possible interaction between the effects of global and regional climate models. We use both pointwise and simultaneous inference procedures to identify regions where global and regional climate model effects differ. We also show conclusively that results from pointwise inference are misleading, and that accounting for multiple comparisons is important for making proper inference.

Cardiorespiratory adaptation to breath-holding in air: Analysis via a cardiopulmonary simulation model.

PubMed

Albanese, Antonio; Limei Cheng; Ursino, Mauro; Chbat, Nicolas W

2015-01-01

Apnea via breath-holding (BH) in air induces cardiorespiratory adaptation that involves the activation of several reflex mechanisms and their complex interactions. Hence, the effects of BH in air on cardiorespiratory function can become hardly predictable and difficult to be interpreted. Particularly, the effect on heart rate is not yet completely understood because of the contradicting results of different physiological studies. In this paper we apply our previously developed cardiopulmonary model (CP Model) to a scenario of BH with a twofold intent: (1) further validating the CP Model via comparison against experimental data; (2) gaining insights into the physiological reasoning for such contradicting experimental results. Model predictions agreed with published experimental animal and human data and indicated that heart rate increases during BH in air. Changes in the balance between sympathetic and vagal effects on heart rate within the model proved to be effective in inverting directions of the heart rate changes during BH. Hence, the model suggests that intra-subject differences in such sympatho-vagal balance may be one of the reasons for the contradicting experimental results.

Mussel dynamics model: A hydroinformatics tool for analyzing the effects of different stressors on the dynamics of freshwater mussel communities

USGS Publications Warehouse

Morales, Y.; Weber, L.J.; Mynett, A.E.; Newton, T.J.

2006-01-01

A model for simulating freshwater mussel population dynamics is presented. The model is a hydroinformatics tool that integrates principles from ecology, river hydraulics, fluid mechanics and sediment transport, and applies the individual-based modelling approach for simulating population dynamics. The general model layout, data requirements, and steps of the simulation process are discussed. As an illustration, simulation results from an application in a 10 km reach of the Upper Mississippi River are presented. The model was used to investigate the spatial distribution of mussels and the effects of food competition in native unionid mussel communities, and communities infested by Dreissena polymorpha, the zebra mussel. Simulation results were found to be realistic and coincided with data obtained from the literature. These results indicate that the model can be a useful tool for assessing the potential effects of different stressors on long-term population dynamics, and consequently, may improve the current understanding of cause and effect relationships in freshwater mussel communities. ?? 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Evaluating Differential Effects Using Regression Interactions and Regression Mixture Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Van Horn, M. Lee; Jaki, Thomas; Masyn, Katherine; Howe, George; Feaster, Daniel J.; Lamont, Andrea E.; George, Melissa R. W.; Kim, Minjung

2015-01-01

Research increasingly emphasizes understanding differential effects. This article focuses on understanding regression mixture models, which are relatively new statistical methods for assessing differential effects by comparing results to using an interactive term in linear regression. The research questions which each model answers, their…

A generalized target theory and its applications.

PubMed

Zhao, Lei; Mi, Dong; Hu, Bei; Sun, Yeqing

2015-09-28

Different radiobiological models have been proposed to estimate the cell-killing effects, which are very important in radiotherapy and radiation risk assessment. However, most applied models have their own scopes of application. In this work, by generalizing the relationship between "hit" and "survival" in traditional target theory with Yager negation operator in Fuzzy mathematics, we propose a generalized target model of radiation-induced cell inactivation that takes into account both cellular repair effects and indirect effects of radiation. The simulation results of the model and the rethinking of "the number of targets in a cell" and "the number of hits per target" suggest that it is only necessary to investigate the generalized single-hit single-target (GSHST) in the present theoretical frame. Analysis shows that the GSHST model can be reduced to the linear quadratic model and multitarget model in the low-dose and high-dose regions, respectively. The fitting results show that the GSHST model agrees well with the usual experimental observations. In addition, the present model can be used to effectively predict cellular repair capacity, radiosensitivity, target size, especially the biologically effective dose for the treatment planning in clinical applications.

A comparison of observation-level random effect and Beta-Binomial models for modelling overdispersion in Binomial data in ecology & evolution.

PubMed

Harrison, Xavier A

2015-01-01

Overdispersion is a common feature of models of biological data, but researchers often fail to model the excess variation driving the overdispersion, resulting in biased parameter estimates and standard errors. Quantifying and modeling overdispersion when it is present is therefore critical for robust biological inference. One means to account for overdispersion is to add an observation-level random effect (OLRE) to a model, where each data point receives a unique level of a random effect that can absorb the extra-parametric variation in the data. Although some studies have investigated the utility of OLRE to model overdispersion in Poisson count data, studies doing so for Binomial proportion data are scarce. Here I use a simulation approach to investigate the ability of both OLRE models and Beta-Binomial models to recover unbiased parameter estimates in mixed effects models of Binomial data under various degrees of overdispersion. In addition, as ecologists often fit random intercept terms to models when the random effect sample size is low (<5 levels), I investigate the performance of both model types under a range of random effect sample sizes when overdispersion is present. Simulation results revealed that the efficacy of OLRE depends on the process that generated the overdispersion; OLRE failed to cope with overdispersion generated from a Beta-Binomial mixture model, leading to biased slope and intercept estimates, but performed well for overdispersion generated by adding random noise to the linear predictor. Comparison of parameter estimates from an OLRE model with those from its corresponding Beta-Binomial model readily identified when OLRE were performing poorly due to disagreement between effect sizes, and this strategy should be employed whenever OLRE are used for Binomial data to assess their reliability. Beta-Binomial models performed well across all contexts, but showed a tendency to underestimate effect sizes when modelling non-Beta-Binomial data. Finally, both OLRE and Beta-Binomial models performed poorly when models contained <5 levels of the random intercept term, especially for estimating variance components, and this effect appeared independent of total sample size. These results suggest that OLRE are a useful tool for modelling overdispersion in Binomial data, but that they do not perform well in all circumstances and researchers should take care to verify the robustness of parameter estimates of OLRE models.

Effects of stream topology on ecological community results from neutral models

EPA Science Inventory

While neutral theory and models have stimulated considerable literature, less well investigated is the effect of topology on neutral metacommunity model simulations. We implemented a neutral metacommunity model using two different stream network topologies, a widely branched netw...

Charge deposition model for investigating SE-microdose effect in trench power MOSFETs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xin, Wan; Weisong, Zhou; Daoguang, Liu; Hanliang, Bo; Jun, Xu

2015-05-01

It was demonstrated that heavy ions can induce large current—voltage (I-V) characteristics shift in commercial trench power MOSFETs, named single event microdose effect (SE-microdose effect). A model is presented to describe this effect. This model calculates the charge deposition by a single heavy ion hitting oxide and the subsequent charge transport under an electric field. Holes deposited at the SiO2/Si interface by a Xe ion are calculated by using this model. The calculated results were then used in Sentaurus TCAD software to simulate a trench power MOSFET's I-V curve shift after a Xe ion has hit it. The simulation results are consistent with the related experiment's data. In the end, several factors which affect the SE-microdose effect in trench power MOSFETs are investigated by using this model.

Implementation of a mezzo-level HOV carpool model for Texas. Final report, September 1986-April 1990

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Benson, J.D.; Mullins, J.A.; Stokes, R.W.

1989-11-01

The report presents the results of an evaluation and adaptation of three existing high-occupancy vehicle (HOV) lane carpool demand estimation models for possible use in Houston and other large Texas cities. These models use trip tables, networks and zone structures that are consistent with the regional travel demand modeling process currently in use in Texas. By implementing the HOV carpool models in a structure that is consistent with the regional travel demand modeling process, it is possible to estimate the carpool demand for an HOV facility and to evaluate the effects of the following changes in HOV lane configuration andmore » operating strategies: (1) Effects of additional and/or alternative access points; (2) Effects of extending and HOV lane; and (3) Effects of changing the definition of eligible HOV carpools. The models have produced promising results in test applications in Houston.« less

Models for Total-Dose Radiation Effects in Non-Volatile Memory

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Campbell, Philip Montgomery; Wix, Steven D.

The objective of this work is to develop models to predict radiation effects in non- volatile memory: flash memory and ferroelectric RAM. In flash memory experiments have found that the internal high-voltage generators (charge pumps) are the most sensitive to radiation damage. Models are presented for radiation effects in charge pumps that demonstrate the experimental results. Floating gate models are developed for the memory cell in two types of flash memory devices by Intel and Samsung. These models utilize Fowler-Nordheim tunneling and hot electron injection to charge and erase the floating gate. Erase times are calculated from the models andmore » compared with experimental results for different radiation doses. FRAM is less sensitive to radiation than flash memory, but measurements show that above 100 Krad FRAM suffers from a large increase in leakage current. A model for this effect is developed which compares closely with the measurements.« less

Modeling of membrane processes for air revitalization and water recovery

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lange, Kevin E.; Foerg, Sandra L.; Dall-Bauman, Liese A.

1992-01-01

Gas-separation and reverse-osmosis membrane models are being developed in conjunction with membrane testing at NASA JSC. The completed gas-separation membrane model extracts effective component permeabilities from multicomponent test data, and predicts the effects of flow configuration, operating conditions, and membrane dimensions on module performance. Variable feed- and permeate-side pressures are considered. The model has been applied to test data for hollow-fiber membrane modules with simulated cabin-air feeds. Results are presented for a membrane designed for air drying applications. Extracted permeabilities are used to predict the effect of operating conditions on water enrichment in the permeate. A first-order reverse-osmosis model has been applied to test data for spiral wound membrane modules with a simulated hygiene water feed. The model estimates an effective local component rejection coefficient under pseudosteady-state conditions. Results are used to define requirements for a detailed reverse-osmosis model.

[The effect of self-reflection on depression mediated by hardiness].

PubMed

Nakajima, Miho; Hattori, Yosuke; Tanno, Yoshihiko

2015-10-01

Previous studies have shown that two types of private self-consciousness result in opposing effects on depression; one of which is self-rumination, which leads to maladaptive effect, and the other is self-reflection, which leads to an adaptive effect. Although a number of studies have examined the mechanism of the maladaptive effect of self-rumination, only a few studies have examined the mechanism of the adaptive effect of self-reflection. The present study examined the process of how self-reflection affected depression adaptively, Based on the previous findings, we proposed a hypothetical model assuming that hardiness acts as a mediator of self-reflection. To test the validity of the model, structural equation modeling analysis was performed with the cross-sectional data of 155 undergraduate students. The results. suggest that the hypothetical model is valid. According to the present results and previous findings, it is suggested that self-reflection is associated with low levels of depression and mediated by "rich commitment", one component of hardiness.

Prediction models for clustered data: comparison of a random intercept and standard regression model

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background When study data are clustered, standard regression analysis is considered inappropriate and analytical techniques for clustered data need to be used. For prediction research in which the interest of predictor effects is on the patient level, random effect regression models are probably preferred over standard regression analysis. It is well known that the random effect parameter estimates and the standard logistic regression parameter estimates are different. Here, we compared random effect and standard logistic regression models for their ability to provide accurate predictions. Methods Using an empirical study on 1642 surgical patients at risk of postoperative nausea and vomiting, who were treated by one of 19 anesthesiologists (clusters), we developed prognostic models either with standard or random intercept logistic regression. External validity of these models was assessed in new patients from other anesthesiologists. We supported our results with simulation studies using intra-class correlation coefficients (ICC) of 5%, 15%, or 30%. Standard performance measures and measures adapted for the clustered data structure were estimated. Results The model developed with random effect analysis showed better discrimination than the standard approach, if the cluster effects were used for risk prediction (standard c-index of 0.69 versus 0.66). In the external validation set, both models showed similar discrimination (standard c-index 0.68 versus 0.67). The simulation study confirmed these results. For datasets with a high ICC (≥15%), model calibration was only adequate in external subjects, if the used performance measure assumed the same data structure as the model development method: standard calibration measures showed good calibration for the standard developed model, calibration measures adapting the clustered data structure showed good calibration for the prediction model with random intercept. Conclusion The models with random intercept discriminate better than the standard model only if the cluster effect is used for predictions. The prediction model with random intercept had good calibration within clusters. PMID:23414436

Effects of Inventory Bias on Landslide Susceptibility Calculations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stanley, T. A.; Kirschbaum, D. B.

2017-01-01

Many landslide inventories are known to be biased, especially inventories for large regions such as Oregon's SLIDO or NASA's Global Landslide Catalog. These biases must affect the results of empirically derived susceptibility models to some degree. We evaluated the strength of the susceptibility model distortion from postulated biases by truncating an unbiased inventory. We generated a synthetic inventory from an existing landslide susceptibility map of Oregon, then removed landslides from this inventory to simulate the effects of reporting biases likely to affect inventories in this region, namely population and infrastructure effects. Logistic regression models were fitted to the modified inventories. Then the process of biasing a susceptibility model was repeated with SLIDO data. We evaluated each susceptibility model with qualitative and quantitative methods. Results suggest that the effects of landslide inventory bias on empirical models should not be ignored, even if those models are, in some cases, useful. We suggest fitting models in well-documented areas and extrapolating across the study region as a possible approach to modeling landslide susceptibility with heavily biased inventories.

Effects of Inventory Bias on Landslide Susceptibility Calculations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stanley, Thomas; Kirschbaum, Dalia B.

2017-01-01

Many landslide inventories are known to be biased, especially inventories for large regions such as Oregons SLIDO or NASAs Global Landslide Catalog. These biases must affect the results of empirically derived susceptibility models to some degree. We evaluated the strength of the susceptibility model distortion from postulated biases by truncating an unbiased inventory. We generated a synthetic inventory from an existing landslide susceptibility map of Oregon, then removed landslides from this inventory to simulate the effects of reporting biases likely to affect inventories in this region, namely population and infrastructure effects. Logistic regression models were fitted to the modified inventories. Then the process of biasing a susceptibility model was repeated with SLIDO data. We evaluated each susceptibility model with qualitative and quantitative methods. Results suggest that the effects of landslide inventory bias on empirical models should not be ignored, even if those models are, in some cases, useful. We suggest fitting models in well-documented areas and extrapolating across the study region as a possible approach to modelling landslide susceptibility with heavily biased inventories.

Populational Growth Models Proportional to Beta Densities with Allee Effect

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aleixo, Sandra M.; Rocha, J. Leonel; Pestana, Dinis D.

2009-05-01

We consider populations growth models with Allee effect, proportional to beta densities with shape parameters p and 2, where the dynamical complexity is related with the Malthusian parameter r. For p>2, these models exhibit a population dynamics with natural Allee effect. However, in the case of 1

Identification of the mechanism of action of a glucokinase activator from oral glucose tolerance test data in type 2 diabetic patients based on an integrated glucose-insulin model.

PubMed

Jauslin, Petra M; Karlsson, Mats O; Frey, Nicolas

2012-12-01

A mechanistic drug-disease model was developed on the basis of a previously published integrated glucose-insulin model by Jauslin et al. A glucokinase activator was used as a test compound to evaluate the model's ability to identify a drug's mechanism of action and estimate its effects on glucose and insulin profiles following oral glucose tolerance tests. A kinetic-pharmacodynamic approach was chosen to describe the drug's pharmacodynamic effects in a dose-response-time model. Four possible mechanisms of action of antidiabetic drugs were evaluated, and the corresponding affected model parameters were identified: insulin secretion, glucose production, insulin effect on glucose elimination, and insulin-independent glucose elimination. Inclusion of drug effects in the model at these sites of action was first tested one-by-one and then in combination. The results demonstrate the ability of this model to identify the dual mechanism of action of a glucokinase activator and describe and predict its effects: Estimating a stimulating drug effect on insulin secretion and an inhibiting effect on glucose output resulted in a significantly better model fit than any other combination of effect sites. The model may be used for dose finding in early clinical drug development and for gaining more insight into a drug candidate's mechanism of action.

Correlation of ground tests and analyses of a dynamically scaled Space Station model configuration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Javeed, Mehzad; Edighoffer, Harold H.; Mcgowan, Paul E.

1993-01-01

Verification of analytical models through correlation with ground test results of a complex space truss structure is demonstrated. A multi-component, dynamically scaled space station model configuration is the focus structure for this work. Previously established test/analysis correlation procedures are used to develop improved component analytical models. Integrated system analytical models, consisting of updated component analytical models, are compared with modal test results to establish the accuracy of system-level dynamic predictions. Design sensitivity model updating methods are shown to be effective for providing improved component analytical models. Also, the effects of component model accuracy and interface modeling fidelity on the accuracy of integrated model predictions is examined.

Application of General Regression Neural Network to the Prediction of LOD Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Xiao-Hong; Wang, Qi-Jie; Zhu, Jian-Jun; Zhang, Hao

2012-01-01

Traditional methods for predicting the change in length of day (LOD change) are mainly based on some linear models, such as the least square model and autoregression model, etc. However, the LOD change comprises complicated non-linear factors and the prediction effect of the linear models is always not so ideal. Thus, a kind of non-linear neural network — general regression neural network (GRNN) model is tried to make the prediction of the LOD change and the result is compared with the predicted results obtained by taking advantage of the BP (back propagation) neural network model and other models. The comparison result shows that the application of the GRNN to the prediction of the LOD change is highly effective and feasible.

Effect of Turbulence Modeling on Hovering Rotor Flows

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yoon, Seokkwan; Chaderjian, Neal M.; Pulliam, Thomas H.; Holst, Terry L.

2015-01-01

The effect of turbulence models in the off-body grids on the accuracy of solutions for rotor flows in hover has been investigated. Results from the Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes and Laminar Off-Body models are compared. Advection of turbulent eddy viscosity has been studied to find the mechanism leading to inaccurate solutions. A coaxial rotor result is also included.

Effect of suspension kinematic on 14 DOF vehicle model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wongpattananukul, T.; Chantharasenawong, C.

2017-12-01

Computer simulations play a major role in shaping modern science and engineering. They reduce time and resource consumption in new studies and designs. Vehicle simulations have been studied extensively to achieve a vehicle model used in minimum lap time solution. Simulation result accuracy depends on the abilities of these models to represent real phenomenon. Vehicles models with 7 degrees of freedom (DOF), 10 DOF and 14 DOF are normally used in optimal control to solve for minimum lap time. However, suspension kinematics are always neglected on these models. Suspension kinematics are defined as wheel movements with respect to the vehicle body. Tire forces are expressed as a function of wheel slip and wheel position. Therefore, the suspension kinematic relation is appended to the 14 DOF vehicle model to investigate its effects on the accuracy of simulate trajectory. Classical 14 DOF vehicle model is chosen as baseline model. Experiment data is collected from formula student style car test runs as baseline data for simulation and comparison between baseline model and model with suspension kinematic. Results show that in a single long turn there is an accumulated trajectory error in baseline model compared to model with suspension kinematic. While in short alternate turns, the trajectory error is much smaller. These results show that suspension kinematic had an effect on the trajectory simulation of vehicle. Which optimal control that use baseline model will result in inaccuracy control scheme.

Hydra effects in discrete-time models of stable communities.

PubMed

Cortez, Michael H

2016-12-21

A species exhibits a hydra effect when, counter-intuitively, increased mortality of the species causes an increase in its abundance. Hydra effects have been studied in many continuous time (differential equation) multispecies models, but only rarely have hydra effects been observed in or studied with discrete time (difference equation) multispecies models. In addition most discrete time theory focuses on single-species models. Thus, it is unclear what unifying characteristics determine when hydra effects arise in discrete time models. Here, using discrete time multispecies models (where total abundance is the single variable describing each population), I show that a species exhibits a hydra effect in a stable system only when fixing that species' density at its equilibrium density destabilizes the system. This general characteristic is referred to as subsystem instability. I apply this result to two-species models and identify specific mechanisms that cause hydra effects in stable communities, e.g., in host--parasitoid models, host Allee effects and saturating parasitoid functional responses can cause parasitoid hydra effects. I discuss how the general characteristic can be used to identify mechanisms causing hydra effects in communities with three or more species. I also show that the condition for hydra effects at stable equilibria implies the system is reactive (i.e., density perturbations can grow before ultimately declining). This study extends previous work on conditions for hydra effects in single-species models by identifying necessary conditions for stable systems and sufficient conditions for cyclic systems. In total, these results show that hydra effects can arise in many more communities than previously appreciated and that hydra effects were present, but unrecognized, in previously studied discrete time models. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evaporating Spray in Supersonic Streams Including Turbulence Effects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Balasubramanyam, M. S.; Chen, C. P.

2006-01-01

Evaporating spray plays an important role in spray combustion processes. This paper describes the development of a new finite-conductivity evaporation model, based on the two-temperature film theory, for two-phase numerical simulation using Eulerian-Lagrangian method. The model is a natural extension of the T-blob/T-TAB atomization/spray model which supplies the turbulence characteristics for estimating effective thermal diffusivity within the droplet phase. Both one-way and two-way coupled calculations were performed to investigate the performance of this model. Validation results indicate the superiority of the finite-conductivity model in low speed parallel flow evaporating sprays. High speed cross flow spray results indicate the effectiveness of the T-blob/T-TAB model and point to the needed improvements in high speed evaporating spray modeling.

Validation of High Displacement Piezoelectric Actuator Finite Element Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Taleghani, B. K.

2000-01-01

The paper presents the results obtained by using NASTRAN(Registered Trademark) and ANSYS(Regitered Trademark) finite element codes to predict doming of the THUNDER piezoelectric actuators during the manufacturing process and subsequent straining due to an applied input voltage. To effectively use such devices in engineering applications, modeling and characterization are essential. Length, width, dome height, and thickness are important parameters for users of such devices. Therefore, finite element models were used to assess the effects of these parameters. NASTRAN(Registered Trademark) and ANSYS(Registered Trademark) used different methods for modeling piezoelectric effects. In NASTRAN(Registered Trademark), a thermal analogy was used to represent voltage at nodes as equivalent temperatures, while ANSYS(Registered Trademark) processed the voltage directly using piezoelectric finite elements. The results of finite element models were validated by using the experimental results.

Assessing NARCCAP climate model effects using spatial confidence regions

PubMed Central

French, Joshua P.; McGinnis, Seth; Schwartzman, Armin

2017-01-01

We assess similarities and differences between model effects for the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) climate models using varying classes of linear regression models. Specifically, we consider how the average temperature effect differs for the various global and regional climate model combinations, including assessment of possible interaction between the effects of global and regional climate models. We use both pointwise and simultaneous inference procedures to identify regions where global and regional climate model effects differ. We also show conclusively that results from pointwise inference are misleading, and that accounting for multiple comparisons is important for making proper inference. PMID:28936474

Using Radiation Risk Models in Cancer Screening Simulations: Important Assumptions and Effects on Outcome Projections

PubMed Central

Lee, Janie M.; McMahon, Pamela M.; Lowry, Kathryn P.; Omer, Zehra B.; Eisenberg, Jonathan D.; Pandharipande, Pari V.; Gazelle, G. Scott

2012-01-01

Purpose: To evaluate the effect of incorporating radiation risk into microsimulation (first-order Monte Carlo) models for breast and lung cancer screening to illustrate effects of including radiation risk on patient outcome projections. Materials and Methods: All data used in this study were derived from publicly available or deidentified human subject data. Institutional review board approval was not required. The challenges of incorporating radiation risk into simulation models are illustrated with two cancer screening models (Breast Cancer Model and Lung Cancer Policy Model) adapted to include radiation exposure effects from mammography and chest computed tomography (CT), respectively. The primary outcome projected by the breast model was life expectancy (LE) for BRCA1 mutation carriers. Digital mammographic screening beginning at ages 25, 30, 35, and 40 years was evaluated in the context of screenings with false-positive results and radiation exposure effects. The primary outcome of the lung model was lung cancer–specific mortality reduction due to annual screening, comparing two diagnostic CT protocols for lung nodule evaluation. The Metropolis-Hastings algorithm was used to estimate the mean values of the results with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). Results: Without radiation exposure effects, the breast model indicated that annual digital mammography starting at age 25 years maximized LE (72.03 years; 95% UI: 72.01 years, 72.05 years) and had the highest number of screenings with false-positive results (2.0 per woman). When radiation effects were included, annual digital mammography beginning at age 30 years maximized LE (71.90 years; 95% UI: 71.87 years, 71.94 years) with a lower number of screenings with false-positive results (1.4 per woman). For annual chest CT screening of 50-year-old females with no follow-up for nodules smaller than 4 mm in diameter, the lung model predicted lung cancer–specific mortality reduction of 21.50% (95% UI: 20.90%, 22.10%) without radiation risk and 17.75% (95% UI: 16.97%, 18.41%) with radiation risk. Conclusion: Because including radiation exposure risk can influence long-term projections from simulation models, it is important to include these risks when conducting modeling-based assessments of diagnostic imaging. © RSNA, 2012 Supplemental material: http://radiology.rsna.org/lookup/suppl/doi:10.1148/radiol.11110352/-/DC1 PMID:22357897

MODELING WAVE FORM EFFECTS IN ESPS: THE ALGORITHM IN ESPM AND ESPVI

EPA Science Inventory

The paper details the ways in which waveform effects in electrostatic precipitators (ESPs) are modeled. he effects of waveforms on particle charging, space charge corona suppression, and sparking are examined. he paper shows how the models extend these results to the case of inte...

Consequences of kriging and land use regression for PM2.5 predictions in epidemiologic analyses: Insights into spatial variability using high-resolution satellite data

PubMed Central

Alexeeff, Stacey E.; Schwartz, Joel; Kloog, Itai; Chudnovsky, Alexandra; Koutrakis, Petros; Coull, Brent A.

2016-01-01

Many epidemiological studies use predicted air pollution exposures as surrogates for true air pollution levels. These predicted exposures contain exposure measurement error, yet simulation studies have typically found negligible bias in resulting health effect estimates. However, previous studies typically assumed a statistical spatial model for air pollution exposure, which may be oversimplified. We address this shortcoming by assuming a realistic, complex exposure surface derived from fine-scale (1km x 1km) remote-sensing satellite data. Using simulation, we evaluate the accuracy of epidemiological health effect estimates in linear and logistic regression when using spatial air pollution predictions from kriging and land use regression models. We examined chronic (long-term) and acute (short-term) exposure to air pollution. Results varied substantially across different scenarios. Exposure models with low out-of-sample R2 yielded severe biases in the health effect estimates of some models, ranging from 60% upward bias to 70% downward bias. One land use regression exposure model with greater than 0.9 out-of-sample R2 yielded upward biases up to 13% for acute health effect estimates. Almost all models drastically underestimated the standard errors. Land use regression models performed better in chronic effects simulations. These results can help researchers when interpreting health effect estimates in these types of studies. PMID:24896768

Evaluation of some random effects methodology applicable to bird ringing data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Burnham, K.P.; White, Gary C.

2002-01-01

Existing models for ring recovery and recapture data analysis treat temporal variations in annual survival probability (S) as fixed effects. Often there is no explainable structure to the temporal variation in S1,..., Sk; random effects can then be a useful model: Si = E(S) + ??i. Here, the temporal variation in survival probability is treated as random with average value E(??2) = ??2. This random effects model can now be fit in program MARK. Resultant inferences include point and interval estimation for process variation, ??2, estimation of E(S) and var (E??(S)) where the latter includes a component for ??2 as well as the traditional component for v??ar(S??\\S??). Furthermore, the random effects model leads to shrinkage estimates, Si, as improved (in mean square error) estimators of Si compared to the MLE, S??i, from the unrestricted time-effects model. Appropriate confidence intervals based on the Si are also provided. In addition, AIC has been generalized to random effects models. This paper presents results of a Monte Carlo evaluation of inference performance under the simple random effects model. Examined by simulation, under the simple one group Cormack-Jolly-Seber (CJS) model, are issues such as bias of ??s2, confidence interval coverage on ??2, coverage and mean square error comparisons for inference about Si based on shrinkage versus maximum likelihood estimators, and performance of AIC model selection over three models: Si ??? S (no effects), Si = E(S) + ??i (random effects), and S1,..., Sk (fixed effects). For the cases simulated, the random effects methods performed well and were uniformly better than fixed effects MLE for the Si.

Efficient Multi-Dimensional Simulation of Quantum Confinement Effects in Advanced MOS Devices

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Biegel, Bryan A.; Ancona, Mario G.; Rafferty, Conor S.; Yu, Zhiping

2000-01-01

We investigate the density-gradient (DG) transport model for efficient multi-dimensional simulation of quantum confinement effects in advanced MOS devices. The formulation of the DG model is described as a quantum correction ot the classical drift-diffusion model. Quantum confinement effects are shown to be significant in sub-100nm MOSFETs. In thin-oxide MOS capacitors, quantum effects may reduce gate capacitance by 25% or more. As a result, the inclusion of quantum effects may reduce gate capacitance by 25% or more. As a result, the inclusion of quantum effects in simulations dramatically improves the match between C-V simulations and measurements for oxide thickness down to 2 nm. Significant quantum corrections also occur in the I-V characteristics of short-channel (30 to 100 nm) n-MOSFETs, with current drive reduced by up to 70%. This effect is shown to result from reduced inversion charge due to quantum confinement of electrons in the channel. Also, subthreshold slope is degraded by 15 to 20 mV/decade with the inclusion of quantum effects via the density-gradient model, and short channel effects (in particular, drain-induced barrier lowering) are noticeably increased.

Modeling the effect of exogenous melatonin on the sleep-wake switch.

PubMed

Johnson, Nicholas; Jain, Gauray; Sandberg, Lianne; Sheets, Kevin

2012-01-01

According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the Institute of Medicine of the National Academies, insufficient sleep has become a public health epidemic. Approximately 50-70 million adults (20 years or older) suffer from some disorder of sleep and wakefulness, hindering daily functioning and adversely affecting health and longevity. Melatonin, a naturally produced hormone which plays a role in sleep-wake regulation, is currently offered as an over-the-counter sleep aid. However, the effects of melatonin on the sleep-wake cycle are incompletely understood. The goal of this modeling study was to incorporate the effects of exogenous melatonin administration into a mathematical model of the human sleep-wake switch. The model developed herein adds a simple kinetic model of the MT1 melatonin receptor to an existing model which simulates the interactions of different neuronal groups thought to be involved in sleep-wake regulation. Preliminary results were obtained by simulating the effects of an exogenous melatonin dose typical of over-the-counter sleep aids. The model predicted an increase in homeostatic sleep drive and a resulting alteration in circadian rhythm consistent with experimental results. The time of melatonin administration was also observed to have a strong influence on the sleep-wake effects elicited, which is also consistent with prior experimental findings.

Persistence and ergodicity of a stochastic single species model with Allee effect under regime switching

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Xingwang; Yuan, Sanling; Zhang, Tonghua

2018-06-01

Allee effect can interact with environment stochasticity and is active when population numbers are small. Our goal of this paper is to investigate such effect on population dynamics. More precisely, we develop and investigate a stochastic single species model with Allee effect under regime switching. We first prove the existence of global positive solution of the model. Then, we perform the survival analysis to seek sufficient conditions for the extinction, non-persistence in mean, persistence in mean and stochastic permanence. By constructing a suitable Lyapunov function, we show that the model is positive recurrent and ergodic. Our results indicate that the regime switching can suppress the extinction of the species. Finally, numerical simulations are carried out to illustrate the obtained theoretical results, where a real-life example is also discussed showing the inclusion of Allee effect in the model provides a better match to the data.

A phenomenological model for simulating the chemo-responsive shape memory effect in polymers undergoing a permeation transition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, Haibao; Huang, Wei Min; Leng, Jinsong

2014-04-01

We present a phenomenological model for studying the constitutive relations and working mechanism of the chemo-responsive shape memory effect (SME) in shape memory polymers (SMPs). On the basis of the solubility parameter equation, diffusion model and permeation transition model, a phenomenological model is derived for quantitatively identifying the influential factors in the chemically induced SME in SMPs. After this, a permeability parallel model and series model are implemented in order to couple the constitutive relations of the permeability coefficient, stress and relaxation time as a function of stretch, separately. The inductive effect of the permeability transition on the transition temperature is confirmed as the driving force for the chemo-responsive SME. Furthermore, the analytical result from the phenomenological model is compared with the available experimental results and the simulation of a semi-empirical model reported in the literature for verification.

How Methodologic Differences Affect Results of Economic Analyses: A Systematic Review of Interferon Gamma Release Assays for the Diagnosis of LTBI

PubMed Central

Oxlade, Olivia; Pinto, Marcia; Trajman, Anete; Menzies, Dick

2013-01-01

Introduction Cost effectiveness analyses (CEA) can provide useful information on how to invest limited funds, however they are less useful if different analysis of the same intervention provide unclear or contradictory results. The objective of our study was to conduct a systematic review of methodologic aspects of CEA that evaluate Interferon Gamma Release Assays (IGRA) for the detection of Latent Tuberculosis Infection (LTBI), in order to understand how differences affect study results. Methods A systematic review of studies was conducted with particular focus on study quality and the variability in inputs used in models used to assess cost-effectiveness. A common decision analysis model of the IGRA versus Tuberculin Skin Test (TST) screening strategy was developed and used to quantify the impact on predicted results of observed differences of model inputs taken from the studies identified. Results Thirteen studies were ultimately included in the review. Several specific methodologic issues were identified across studies, including how study inputs were selected, inconsistencies in the costing approach, the utility of the QALY (Quality Adjusted Life Year) as the effectiveness outcome, and how authors choose to present and interpret study results. When the IGRA versus TST test strategies were compared using our common decision analysis model predicted effectiveness largely overlapped. Implications Many methodologic issues that contribute to inconsistent results and reduced study quality were identified in studies that assessed the cost-effectiveness of the IGRA test. More specific and relevant guidelines are needed in order to help authors standardize modelling approaches, inputs, assumptions and how results are presented and interpreted. PMID:23505412

AXAF-1 high-resolution mirror assembly image model and comparison with x-ray ground-test image

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zissa, David E.

1999-09-01

The completed High Resolution Mirror Assembly (HRMA) of the Advanced X-ray Astrophysics Facility - Imaging (AXAF-I) was tested at the X-ray Calibration Facility (XRCF) at the NASA- Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) in 1997. The MSFC image model was developed during the development of AXAF-I. The MSFC model is a detailed ray-trace model of the as-built HRMA optics and the XRCF teste conditions. The image encircled-energy distributions from the model are found to general agree well with XRCF test data nd the preliminary Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory (SAO) model. MSFC model effective-area result generally agree with those of the preliminary SAO model. Preliminary model effective-area results were reported by SAO to be approximately 5-13 percent above initial XRCF test results. The XRCF test conditions are removed from the MSFC ray-trace model to derive an on-orbit prediction of the HRMA image.

Modelling the pre-assessment learning effects of assessment: evidence in the validity chain

PubMed Central

Cilliers, Francois J; Schuwirth, Lambert W T; van der Vleuten, Cees P M

2012-01-01

OBJECTIVES We previously developed a model of the pre-assessment learning effects of consequential assessment and started to validate it. The model comprises assessment factors, mechanism factors and learning effects. The purpose of this study was to continue the validation process. For stringency, we focused on a subset of assessment factor–learning effect associations that featured least commonly in a baseline qualitative study. Our aims were to determine whether these uncommon associations were operational in a broader but similar population to that in which the model was initially derived. METHODS A cross-sectional survey of 361 senior medical students at one medical school was undertaken using a purpose-made questionnaire based on a grounded theory and comprising pairs of written situational tests. In each pair, the manifestation of an assessment factor was varied. The frequencies at which learning effects were selected were compared for each item pair, using an adjusted alpha to assign significance. The frequencies at which mechanism factors were selected were calculated. RESULTS There were significant differences in the learning effect selected between the two scenarios of an item pair for 13 of this subset of 21 uncommon associations, even when a p-value of < 0.00625 was considered to indicate significance. Three mechanism factors were operational in most scenarios: agency; response efficacy, and response value. CONCLUSIONS For a subset of uncommon associations in the model, the role of most assessment factor–learning effect associations and the mechanism factors involved were supported in a broader but similar population to that in which the model was derived. Although model validation is an ongoing process, these results move the model one step closer to the stage of usefully informing interventions. Results illustrate how factors not typically included in studies of the learning effects of assessment could confound the results of interventions aimed at using assessment to influence learning. Discuss ideas arising from this article at ‘http://www.mededuc.com discuss’ PMID:23078685

Modelling the Cost Effectiveness of Disease-Modifying Treatments for Multiple Sclerosis

PubMed Central

Thompson, Joel P.; Abdolahi, Amir; Noyes, Katia

2013-01-01

Several cost-effectiveness models of disease-modifying treatments (DMTs) for multiple sclerosis (MS) have been developed for different populations and different countries. Vast differences in the approaches and discrepancies in the results give rise to heated discussions and limit the use of these models. Our main objective is to discuss the methodological challenges in modelling the cost effectiveness of treatments for MS. We conducted a review of published models to describe the approaches taken to date, to identify the key parameters that influence the cost effectiveness of DMTs, and to point out major areas of weakness and uncertainty. Thirty-six published models and analyses were identified. The greatest source of uncertainty is the absence of head-to-head randomized clinical trials. Modellers have used various techniques to compensate, including utilizing extension trials. The use of large observational cohorts in recent studies aids in identifying population-based, ‘real-world’ treatment effects. Major drivers of results include the time horizon modelled and DMT acquisition costs. Model endpoints must target either policy makers (using cost-utility analysis) or clinicians (conducting cost-effectiveness analyses). Lastly, the cost effectiveness of DMTs outside North America and Europe is currently unknown, with the lack of country-specific data as the major limiting factor. We suggest that limited data should not preclude analyses, as models may be built and updated in the future as data become available. Disclosure of modelling methods and assumptions could improve the transferability and applicability of models designed to reflect different healthcare systems. PMID:23640103

High fidelity quasi steady-state aerodynamic model effects on race vehicle performance predictions using multi-body simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohrfeld-Halterman, J. A.; Uddin, M.

2016-07-01

We described in this paper the development of a high fidelity vehicle aerodynamic model to fit wind tunnel test data over a wide range of vehicle orientations. We also present a comparison between the effects of this proposed model and a conventional quasi steady-state aerodynamic model on race vehicle simulation results. This is done by implementing both of these models independently in multi-body quasi steady-state simulations to determine the effects of the high fidelity aerodynamic model on race vehicle performance metrics. The quasi steady state vehicle simulation is developed with a multi-body NASCAR Truck vehicle model, and simulations are conducted for three different types of NASCAR race tracks, a short track, a one and a half mile intermediate track, and a higher speed, two mile intermediate race track. For each track simulation, the effects of the aerodynamic model on handling, maximum corner speed, and drive force metrics are analysed. The accuracy of the high-fidelity model is shown to reduce the aerodynamic model error relative to the conventional aerodynamic model, and the increased accuracy of the high fidelity aerodynamic model is found to have realisable effects on the performance metric predictions on the intermediate tracks resulting from the quasi steady-state simulation.

Introducing an osteopathic approach into neonatology ward: the NE-O model

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Several studies showed the effect of osteopathic manipulative treatment on neonatal care in reducing length of stay in hospital, gastrointestinal problems, clubfoot complications and improving cranial asymmetry of infants affected by plagiocephaly. Despite several results obtained, there is still a lack of standardized osteopathic evaluation and treatment procedures for newborns recovered in neonatal intensive care unit (NICU). The aim of this paper is to suggest a protocol on osteopathic approach (NE-O model) in treating hospitalized newborns. Methods The NE-O model is composed by specific evaluation tests and treatments to tailor osteopathic method according to preterm and term infants’ needs, NICU environment, medical and paramedical assistance. This model was developed to maximize the effectiveness and the clinical use of osteopathy into NICU. Results The NE-O model was adopted in 2006 to evaluate the efficacy of OMT in neonatology. Results from research showed the effectiveness of this osteopathic model in reducing preterms’ length of stay and hospital costs. Additionally the present model was demonstrated to be safe. Conclusion The present paper defines the key steps for a rigorous and effective osteopathic approach into NICU setting, providing a scientific and methodological example of integrated medicine and complex intervention. PMID:24904746

Effectiveness of submerged drains in reducing subsidence of peat soils in agricultural use, and their effects on water management and nutrient loading of surface water: modelling of a case study in the western peat soil area of The Netherlands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hendriks, Rob F. A.; van den Akker, Jan J. A.

2017-04-01

Effectiveness of submerged drains in reducing subsidence of peat soils in agricultural use, and their effects on water management and nutrient loading of surface water: modelling of a case study in the western peat soil area of The Netherlands In the Netherlands, about 8% of the area is covered by peat soils. Most of these soils are in use for dairy farming and, consequently, are drained. Drainage causes decomposition of peat by oxidation and accordingly leads to surface subsidence and greenhouse gas emission. Submerged drains that enhance submerged infiltration of water from ditches during the dry and warm summer half year were, and are still, studied in The Netherlands as a promising tool for reducing peat decomposition by raising groundwater levels. For this purpose, several pilot field studies in the Western part of the Dutch peat area were conducted. Besides the effectiveness of submerged drains in reducing peat decomposition and subsidence by raising groundwater tables, some other relevant or expected effects of these drains were studied. Most important of these are water management and loading of surface water with nutrients nitrogen, phosphorus and sulphate. Because most of these parameters are not easy to assess and all of them are strongly depending on the meteorological conditions during the field studies some of these studies were modelled. The SWAP model was used for evaluating the hydrological results on groundwater table and water discharge and recharge. Effects of submerged drains were assessed by comparing the results of fields with and without drains. An empirical relation between deepest groundwater table and subsidence was used to convert effects on groundwater table to effects on subsidence. With the SWAP-ANIMO model nutrient loading of surface water was modelled on the basis of field results on nutrient concentrations . Calibrated models were used to assess effects in the present situation, as thirty-year averages, under extreme weather conditions and for two extreme climate scenarios of the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute. In this study the model results of one of the pilot studies are presented. The case study 'de Krimpenerwaard' is situated in the peat area in the "Green Heart" between the major cities of Amsterdam, The Hague, Rotterdam and Utrecht. Model results show a halving of soil subsidence, a strong increase of water recharge but a lower increase of water discharge, and generally small to moderate effects on nutrient loading , all depending (strongly) on meteorological conditions.

Wave Attenuation and Gas Exchange Velocity in Marginal Sea Ice Zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bigdeli, A.; Hara, T.; Loose, B.; Nguyen, A. T.

2018-03-01

The gas transfer velocity in marginal sea ice zones exerts a strong control on the input of anthropogenic gases into the ocean interior. In this study, a sea state-dependent gas exchange parametric model is developed based on the turbulent kinetic energy dissipation rate. The model is tuned to match the conventional gas exchange parametrization in fetch-unlimited, fully developed seas. Next, fetch limitation is introduced in the model and results are compared to fetch limited experiments in lakes, showing that the model captures the effects of finite fetch on gas exchange with good fidelity. Having validated the results in fetch limited waters such as lakes, the model is next applied in sea ice zones using an empirical relation between the sea ice cover and the effective fetch, while accounting for the sea ice motion effect that is unique to sea ice zones. The model results compare favorably with the available field measurements. Applying this parametric model to a regional Arctic numerical model, it is shown that, under the present conditions, gas flux into the Arctic Ocean may be overestimated by 10% if a conventional parameterization is used.

Improving satellite-based PM2.5 estimates in China using Gaussian processes modeling in a Bayesian hierarchical setting.

PubMed

Yu, Wenxi; Liu, Yang; Ma, Zongwei; Bi, Jun

2017-08-01

Using satellite-based aerosol optical depth (AOD) measurements and statistical models to estimate ground-level PM 2.5 is a promising way to fill the areas that are not covered by ground PM 2.5 monitors. The statistical models used in previous studies are primarily Linear Mixed Effects (LME) and Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) models. In this study, we developed a new regression model between PM 2.5 and AOD using Gaussian processes in a Bayesian hierarchical setting. Gaussian processes model the stochastic nature of the spatial random effects, where the mean surface and the covariance function is specified. The spatial stochastic process is incorporated under the Bayesian hierarchical framework to explain the variation of PM 2.5 concentrations together with other factors, such as AOD, spatial and non-spatial random effects. We evaluate the results of our model and compare them with those of other, conventional statistical models (GWR and LME) by within-sample model fitting and out-of-sample validation (cross validation, CV). The results show that our model possesses a CV result (R 2  = 0.81) that reflects higher accuracy than that of GWR and LME (0.74 and 0.48, respectively). Our results indicate that Gaussian process models have the potential to improve the accuracy of satellite-based PM 2.5 estimates.

Probabilistic Material Strength Degradation Model for Inconel 718 Components Subjected to High Temperature, High-Cycle and Low-Cycle Mechanical Fatigue, Creep and Thermal Fatigue Effects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bast, Callie C.; Boyce, Lola

1995-01-01

The development of methodology for a probabilistic material strength degradation is described. The probabilistic model, in the form of a postulated randomized multifactor equation, provides for quantification of uncertainty in the lifetime material strength of aerospace propulsion system components subjected to a number of diverse random effects. This model is embodied in the computer program entitled PROMISS, which can include up to eighteen different effects. Presently, the model includes five effects that typically reduce lifetime strength: high temperature, high-cycle mechanical fatigue, low-cycle mechanical fatigue, creep and thermal fatigue. Results, in the form of cumulative distribution functions, illustrated the sensitivity of lifetime strength to any current value of an effect. In addition, verification studies comparing predictions of high-cycle mechanical fatigue and high temperature effects with experiments are presented. Results from this limited verification study strongly supported that material degradation can be represented by randomized multifactor interaction models.

Probabilistic material strength degradation model for Inconel 718 components subjected to high temperature, high-cycle and low-cycle mechanical fatigue, creep and thermal fatigue effects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bast, Callie C.; Boyce, Lola

1995-01-01

This report presents the results of both the fifth and sixth year effort of a research program conducted for NASA-LeRC by The University of Texas at San Antonio (UTSA). The research included on-going development of methodology for a probabilistic material strength degradation model. The probabilistic model, in the form of a postulated randomized multifactor equation, provides for quantification of uncertainty in the lifetime material strength of aerospace propulsion system components subjected to a number of diverse random effects. This model is embodied in the computer program entitled PROMISS, which can include up to eighteen different effects. Presently, the model includes five effects that typically reduce lifetime strength: high temperature, high-cycle mechanical fatigue, low-cycle mechanical fatigue, creep and thermal fatigue. Statistical analysis was conducted on experimental Inconel 718 data obtained from the open literature. This analysis provided regression parameters for use as the model's empirical material constants, thus calibrating the model specifically for Inconel 718. Model calibration was carried out for five variables, namely, high temperature, high-cycle and low-cycle mechanical fatigue, creep and thermal fatigue. Methodology to estimate standard deviations of these material constants for input into the probabilistic material strength model was developed. Using an updated version of PROMISS, entitled PROMISS93, a sensitivity study for the combined effects of high-cycle mechanical fatigue, creep and thermal fatigue was performed. Then using the current version of PROMISS, entitled PROMISS94, a second sensitivity study including the effect of low-cycle mechanical fatigue, as well as, the three previous effects was performed. Results, in the form of cumulative distribution functions, illustrated the sensitivity of lifetime strength to any current value of an effect. In addition, verification studies comparing a combination of high-cycle mechanical fatigue and high temperature effects by model to the combination by experiment were conducted. Thus, for Inconel 718, the basic model assumption of independence between effects was evaluated. Results from this limited verification study strongly supported this assumption.

Interplay of non-Markov and internal friction effects in the barrier crossing kinetics of biopolymers: insights from an analytically solvable model.

PubMed

Makarov, Dmitrii E

2013-01-07

Conformational rearrangements in biomolecules (such as protein folding or enzyme-ligand binding) are often interpreted in terms of low-dimensional models of barrier crossing such as Kramers' theory. Dimensionality reduction, however, entails memory effects; as a result, the effective frictional drag force along the reaction coordinate nontrivially depends on the time scale of the transition. Moreover, when both solvent and "internal" friction effects are important, their interplay results in a highly nonlinear dependence of the effective friction on solvent viscosity that is not captured by common phenomenological models of barrier crossing. Here, these effects are illustrated using an analytically solvable toy model of an unstructured polymer chain involved in an inter- or intramolecular transition. The transition rate is calculated using the Grote-Hynes and Langer theories, which--unlike Kramers' theory--account for memory. The resulting effective frictional force exerted by the polymer along the reaction coordinate can be rationalized in terms of the effective number of monomers engaged in the transition. Faster transitions (relative to the polymer reconfiguration time scale) involve fewer monomers and, correspondingly, lower friction forces, because the polymer chain does not have enough time to reconfigure in response to the transition.

Improved turbulence models based on large eddy simulation of homogeneous, incompressible turbulent flows

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bardino, J.; Ferziger, J. H.; Reynolds, W. C.

1983-01-01

The physical bases of large eddy simulation and subgrid modeling are studied. A subgrid scale similarity model is developed that can account for system rotation. Large eddy simulations of homogeneous shear flows with system rotation were carried out. Apparently contradictory experimental results were explained. The main effect of rotation is to increase the transverse length scales in the rotation direction, and thereby decrease the rates of dissipation. Experimental results are shown to be affected by conditions at the turbulence producing grid, which make the initial states a function of the rotation rate. A two equation model is proposed that accounts for effects of rotation and shows good agreement with experimental results. In addition, a Reynolds stress model is developed that represents the turbulence structure of homogeneous shear flows very well and can account also for the effects of system rotation.

An Empirical Model for Vane-Type Vortex Generators in a Navier-Stokes Code

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dudek, Julianne C.

2005-01-01

An empirical model which simulates the effects of vane-type vortex generators in ducts was incorporated into the Wind-US Navier-Stokes computational fluid dynamics code. The model enables the effects of the vortex generators to be simulated without defining the details of the geometry within the grid, and makes it practical for researchers to evaluate multiple combinations of vortex generator arrangements. The model determines the strength of each vortex based on the generator geometry and the local flow conditions. Validation results are presented for flow in a straight pipe with a counter-rotating vortex generator arrangement, and the results are compared with experimental data and computational simulations using a gridded vane generator. Results are also presented for vortex generator arrays in two S-duct diffusers, along with accompanying experimental data. The effects of grid resolution and turbulence model are also examined.

Comparing species distribution models constructed with different subsets of environmental predictors

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bucklin, David N.; Basille, Mathieu; Benscoter, Allison M.; Brandt, Laura A.; Mazzotti, Frank J.; Romañach, Stephanie S.; Speroterra, Carolina; Watling, James I.

2014-01-01

Our results indicate that additional predictors have relatively minor effects on the accuracy of climate-based species distribution models and minor to moderate effects on spatial predictions. We suggest that implementing species distribution models with only climate predictors may provide an effective and efficient approach for initial assessments of environmental suitability.

The Influencing and Effective Model of Early Childhood: Teachers' Job Satisfaction in China

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jiang, Yong

2005-01-01

The purpose of this study was to explore the influencing and effective models of Chinese early childhood teachers' job satisfaction. Using a questionnaire of 317 teachers from 21 kindergartens in Shanghai, China, the present study established the influencing and effective structure model of teachers' job satisfaction. The results demonstrated that…

Experimental and modelling studies for the validation of the mechanistic basis of the Local Effect Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tommasino, F.

2016-03-01

This review will summarize results obtained in the recent years applying the Local Effect Model (LEM) approach to the study of basic radiobiological aspects, as for instance DNA damage induction and repair, and charged particle track structure. The promising results obtained using different experimental techniques and looking at different biological end points, support the relevance of the LEM approach for the description of radiation effects induced by both low- and high-LET radiation. Furthermore, they suggest that nowadays the appropriate combination of experimental and modelling tools can lead to advances in the understanding of several open issues in the field of radiation biology.

Study on effective thermal conductivity of silicone/phosphor composite and its size effect by Lattice Boltzmann method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Lan; Zheng, Huai; Yuan, Chao; Hu, Run; Luo, Xiaobing

2016-12-01

The silicone/phosphor composite is widely used in light emitting diode (LED) packaging. The composite thermal properties, especially the effective thermal conductivity, strongly influence the LED performance. In this paper, a lattice Boltzmann model was presented to predict the silicone/phosphor composite effective thermal conductivity. Based on the present lattice Boltzmann model, a random generation method was established to describe the phosphor particle distribution in composite. Benchmarks were conducted by comparing the simulation results with theoretical solutions for simple cases. Then the model was applied to analyze the effective thermal conductivity of the silicone/phosphor composite and its size effect. The deviations between simulation and experimental results are <7 %, when the phosphor volume fraction varies from 0.038 to 0.45. The simulation results also indicate that effective thermal conductivity of the composite with larger particles is higher than that with small particles at the same volume fraction. While mixing these two sizes of phosphor particles provides an extra enhancement for the effective thermal conductivity.

Neuroticism, coping strategies, and negative well-being among caregivers.

PubMed

Patrick, J H; Hayden, J M

1999-06-01

Neuroticism was incorporated into a model for predicting the well-being of family caregivers. Using data from 596 women with an adult child with a chronic disability, the model hypothesizes direct effects of neuroticism on a caregiver's perceptions of the stressor, on her wishful-escapism and problem-focused coping, and on psychological well-being. Results indicate that neuroticism exerts direct and indirect effects on negative well-being. Results also indicate that stressors have direct effects on both wishful-escapism coping and problem-focused coping. Burden had direct effects on negative psychological well-being. Diagnosis influences the model by having direct effects on stressors and wishful-escapism coping but not on problem-focused coping or burden. Inclusion of individual level variables, such as neuroticism, results in a substantial amount of explained variance in negative well-being.

A Gompertzian model with random effects to cervical cancer growth

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mazlan, Mazma Syahidatul Ayuni; Rosli, Norhayati

2015-05-15

In this paper, a Gompertzian model with random effects is introduced to describe the cervical cancer growth. The parameters values of the mathematical model are estimated via maximum likehood estimation. We apply 4-stage Runge-Kutta (SRK4) for solving the stochastic model numerically. The efficiency of mathematical model is measured by comparing the simulated result and the clinical data of the cervical cancer growth. Low values of root mean-square error (RMSE) of Gompertzian model with random effect indicate good fits.

Numerical study of anomalous dynamic scaling behaviour of (1+1)-dimensional Das Sarma-Tamborenea model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xun, Zhi-Peng; Tang, Gang; Han, Kui; Hao, Da-Peng; Xia, Hui; Zhou, Wei; Yang, Xi-Quan; Wen, Rong-Ji; Chen, Yu-Ling

2010-07-01

In order to discuss the finite-size effect and the anomalous dynamic scaling behaviour of Das Sarma-Tamborenea growth model, the (1+1)-dimensional Das Sarma-Tamborenea model is simulated on a large length scale by using the kinetic Monte-Carlo method. In the simulation, noise reduction technique is used in order to eliminate the crossover effect. Our results show that due to the existence of the finite-size effect, the effective global roughness exponent of the (1+1)-dimensional Das Sarma-Tamborenea model systematically decreases with system size L increasing when L > 256. This finding proves the conjecture by Aarao Reis[Aarao Reis F D A 2004 Phys. Rev. E 70 031607]. In addition, our simulation results also show that the Das Sarma-Tamborenea model in 1+1 dimensions indeed exhibits intrinsic anomalous scaling behaviour.

Host Model Uncertainty in Aerosol Radiative Effects: the AeroCom Prescribed Experiment and Beyond

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stier, Philip; Schutgens, Nick; Bian, Huisheng; Boucher, Olivier; Chin, Mian; Ghan, Steven; Huneeus, Nicolas; Kinne, Stefan; Lin, Guangxing; Myhre, Gunnar; Penner, Joyce; Randles, Cynthia; Samset, Bjorn; Schulz, Michael; Yu, Hongbin; Zhou, Cheng; Bellouin, Nicolas; Ma, Xiaoyan; Yu, Fangqun; Takemura, Toshihiko

2013-04-01

Anthropogenic and natural aerosol radiative effects are recognized to affect global and regional climate. Multi-model "diversity" in estimates of the aerosol radiative effect is often perceived as a measure of the uncertainty in modelling aerosol itself. However, current aerosol models vary considerably in model components relevant for the calculation of aerosol radiative forcings and feedbacks and the associated "host-model uncertainties" are generally convoluted with the actual uncertainty in aerosol modelling. In the AeroCom Prescribed intercomparison study we systematically isolate and quantify host model uncertainties on aerosol forcing experiments through prescription of identical aerosol radiative properties in eleven participating models. Host model errors in aerosol radiative forcing are largest in regions of uncertain host model components, such as stratocumulus cloud decks or areas with poorly constrained surface albedos, such as sea ice. Our results demonstrate that host model uncertainties are an important component of aerosol forcing uncertainty that require further attention. However, uncertainties in aerosol radiative effects also include short-term and long-term feedback processes that will be systematically explored in future intercomparison studies. Here we will present an overview of the proposals for discussion and results from early scoping studies.

Modeling rheumatoid arthritis using different techniques - a review of model construction and results.

PubMed

Scholz, Stefan; Mittendorf, Thomas

2014-12-01

Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is a chronic, inflammatory disease with severe effects on the functional ability of patients. Due to the prevalence of 0.5 to 1.0 percent in western countries, new treatment options are a major concern for decision makers with regard to their budget impact. In this context, cost-effectiveness analyses are a helpful tool to evaluate new treatment options for reimbursement schemes. To analyze and compare decision analytic modeling techniques and to explore their use in RA with regard to their advantages and shortcomings. A systematic literature review was conducted in PubMED and 58 studies reporting health economics decision models were analyzed with regard to the modeling technique used. From the 58 reviewed publications, we found 13 reporting decision tree-analysis, 25 (cohort) Markov models, 13 publications on individual sampling methods (ISM) and seven discrete event simulations (DES). Thereby 26 studies were identified as presenting independently developed models and 32 models as adoptions. The modeling techniques used were found to differ in their complexity and in the number of treatment options compared. Methodological features are presented in the article and a comprehensive overview of the cost-effectiveness estimates is given in Additional files 1 and 2. When compared to the other modeling techniques, ISM and DES have advantages in the coverage of patient heterogeneity and, additionally, DES is capable to model more complex treatment sequences and competing risks in RA-patients. Nevertheless, the availability of sufficient data is necessary to avoid assumptions in ISM and DES exercises, thereby enabling biased results. Due to the different settings, time frames and interventions in the reviewed publications, no direct comparison of modeling techniques was applicable. The results from other indications suggest that incremental cost-effective ratios (ICERs) do not differ significantly between Markov and DES models, but DES is able to report more outcome parameters. Given a sufficient data supply, DES is the modeling technique of choice when modeling cost-effectiveness in RA. Otherwise transparency on the data inputs is crucial for valid results and to inform decision makers about possible biases. With regard to ICERs, Markov models might provide similar estimates as more advanced modeling techniques.

The Effect of Sensor Performance on Safe Minefield Transit

DTIC Science & Technology

2002-12-01

the results of the simpler model are not good approximations of the results obtained with the more complex model, suggesting that even greater complexity in maneuver modeling may be desirable for some purposes.

Numerical Simulation of Liquid Jet Atomization Including Turbulence Effects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Trinh, Huu P.; Chen, C. P.; Balasubramanyam, M. S.

2005-01-01

This paper describes numerical implementation of a newly developed hybrid model, T-blob/T-TAB, into an existing computational fluid dynamics (CFD) program for primary and secondary breakup simulation of liquid jet atomization. This model extend two widely used models, the Kelvin-Helmholtz (KH) instability of Reitz (blob model) and the Taylor-Analogy-Breakup (TAB) secondary droplet breakup by O'Rourke and Amsden to include turbulence effects. In the primary breakup model, the level of the turbulence effect on the liquid breakup depends on the characteristic scales and the initial flow conditions. For the secondary breakup, an additional turbulence force acted on parent drops is modeled and integrated into the TAB governing equation. Several assessment studies are presented and the results indicate that the existing KH and TAB models tend to under-predict the product drop size and spray angle, while the current model provides superior results when compared with the measured data.

Feedbacks between air pollution and weather, Part 1: Effects on weather

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Makar, P. A.; Gong, W.; Milbrandt, J.; Hogrefe, C.; Zhang, Y.; Curci, G.; Žabkar, R.; Im, U.; Balzarini, A.; Baró, R.; Bianconi, R.; Cheung, P.; Forkel, R.; Gravel, S.; Hirtl, M.; Honzak, L.; Hou, A.; Jiménez-Guerrero, P.; Langer, M.; Moran, M. D.; Pabla, B.; Pérez, J. L.; Pirovano, G.; San José, R.; Tuccella, P.; Werhahn, J.; Zhang, J.; Galmarini, S.

2015-08-01

The meteorological predictions of fully coupled air-quality models running in ;feedback; versus ;no-feedback; simulations were compared against each other and observations as part of Phase 2 of the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative. In the ;no-feedback; mode, the aerosol direct and indirect effects were disabled, with the models reverting to either climatologies of aerosol properties, or a no-aerosol weather simulation. In the ;feedback; mode, the model-generated aerosols were allowed to modify the radiative transfer and/or cloud formation parameterizations of the respective models. Annual simulations with and without feedbacks were conducted on domains over North America for the years 2006 and 2010, and over Europe for the year 2010. The incorporation of feedbacks was found to result in systematic changes to forecast predictions of meteorological variables, both in time and space, with the largest impacts occurring in the summer and near large sources of pollution. Models incorporating only the aerosol direct effect predicted feedback-induced reductions in temperature, surface downward and upward shortwave radiation, precipitation and PBL height, and increased upward shortwave radiation, in both Europe and North America. The feedback response of models incorporating both the aerosol direct and indirect effects varied across models, suggesting the details of implementation of the indirect effect have a large impact on model results, and hence should be a focus for future research. The feedback response of models incorporating both direct and indirect effects was also consistently larger in magnitude to that of models incorporating the direct effect alone, implying that the indirect effect may be the dominant process. Comparisons across modelling platforms suggested that direct and indirect effect feedbacks may often act in competition: the sign of residual changes associated with feedbacks often changed between those models incorporating the direct effect alone versus those incorporating both feedback processes. Model comparisons to observations for no-feedback and feedback implementations of the same model showed that differences in performance between models were larger than the performance changes associated with implementing feedbacks within a given model. However, feedback implementation was shown to result in improved forecasts of meteorological parameters such as the 2 m surface temperature and precipitation. These findings suggest that meteorological forecasts may be improved through the use of fully coupled feedback models, or through incorporation of improved climatologies of aerosol properties, the latter designed to include spatial, temporal and aerosol size and/or speciation variations.

Clustering of time-course gene expression profiles using normal mixture models with autoregressive random effects

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Time-course gene expression data such as yeast cell cycle data may be periodically expressed. To cluster such data, currently used Fourier series approximations of periodic gene expressions have been found not to be sufficiently adequate to model the complexity of the time-course data, partly due to their ignoring the dependence between the expression measurements over time and the correlation among gene expression profiles. We further investigate the advantages and limitations of available models in the literature and propose a new mixture model with autoregressive random effects of the first order for the clustering of time-course gene-expression profiles. Some simulations and real examples are given to demonstrate the usefulness of the proposed models. Results We illustrate the applicability of our new model using synthetic and real time-course datasets. We show that our model outperforms existing models to provide more reliable and robust clustering of time-course data. Our model provides superior results when genetic profiles are correlated. It also gives comparable results when the correlation between the gene profiles is weak. In the applications to real time-course data, relevant clusters of coregulated genes are obtained, which are supported by gene-function annotation databases. Conclusions Our new model under our extension of the EMMIX-WIRE procedure is more reliable and robust for clustering time-course data because it adopts a random effects model that allows for the correlation among observations at different time points. It postulates gene-specific random effects with an autocorrelation variance structure that models coregulation within the clusters. The developed R package is flexible in its specification of the random effects through user-input parameters that enables improved modelling and consequent clustering of time-course data. PMID:23151154

Validating and Optimizing the Effects of Model Progression in Simulation-Based Inquiry Learning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mulder, Yvonne G.; Lazonder, Ard W.; de Jong, Ton; Anjewierden, Anjo; Bollen, Lars

2012-01-01

Model progression denotes the organization of the inquiry learning process in successive phases of increasing complexity. This study investigated the effectiveness of model progression in general, and explored the added value of either broadening or narrowing students' possibilities to change model progression phases. Results showed that…

Effect of vergence adaptation on convergence-accommodation: model simulations.

PubMed

Sreenivasan, Vidhyapriya; Bobier, William R; Irving, Elizabeth L; Lakshminarayanan, Vasudevan

2009-10-01

Several theoretical control models depict the adaptation effects observed in the accommodation and vergence mechanisms of the human visual system. Two current quantitative models differ in their approach of defining adaptation and in identifying the effect of controller adaptation on their respective cross-links between the vergence and accommodative systems. Here, we compare the simulation results of these adaptation models with empirical data obtained from emmetropic adults when they performed sustained near task through + 2D lens addition. The results of our experimental study showed an initial increase in exophoria (a divergent open-loop vergence position) and convergence-accommodation (CA) when viewing through +2D lenses. Prolonged fixation through the near addition lenses initiated vergence adaptation, which reduced the lens-induced exophoria and resulted in a concurrent reduction of CA. Both models showed good agreement with empirical measures of vergence adaptation. However, only one model predicted the experimental time course of reduction in CA. The pattern of our empirical results seem to be best described by the adaptation model that indicates the total vergence response to be a sum of two controllers, phasic and tonic, with the output of phasic controller providing input to the cross-link interactions.

Computational fluid dynamics modeling of laminar, transitional, and turbulent flows with sensitivity to streamline curvature and rotational effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chitta, Varun

Modeling of complex flows involving the combined effects of flow transition and streamline curvature using two advanced turbulence models, one in the Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) category and the other in the hybrid RANS-Large eddy simulation (LES) category is considered in this research effort. In the first part of the research, a new scalar eddy-viscosity model (EVM) is proposed, designed to exhibit physically correct responses to flow transition, streamline curvature, and system rotation effects. The four equation model developed herein is a curvature-sensitized version of a commercially available three-equation transition-sensitive model. The physical effects of rotation and curvature (RC) enter the model through the added transport equation, analogous to a transverse turbulent velocity scale. The eddy-viscosity has been redefined such that the proposed model is constrained to reduce to the original transition-sensitive model definition in nonrotating flows or in regions with negligible RC effects. In the second part of the research, the developed four-equation model is combined with a LES technique using a new hybrid modeling framework, dynamic hybrid RANS-LES. The new framework is highly generalized, allowing coupling of any desired LES model with any given RANS model and addresses several deficiencies inherent in most current hybrid models. In the present research effort, the DHRL model comprises of the proposed four-equation model for RANS component and the MILES scheme for LES component. Both the models were implemented into a commercial computational fluid dynamics (CFD) solver and tested on a number of engineering and generic flow problems. Results from both the RANS and hybrid models show successful resolution of the combined effects of transition and curvature with reasonable engineering accuracy, and for only a small increase in computational cost. In addition, results from the hybrid model indicate significant levels of turbulent fluctuations in the flowfield, improved accuracy compared to RANS models predictions, and are obtained at a significant reduction of computational cost compared to full LES models. The results suggest that the advanced turbulence modeling techniques presented in this research effort have potential as practical tools for solving low/high Re flows over blunt/curved bodies for the prediction of transition and RC effects.

A compressibility correction of the pressure strain correlation model in turbulent flow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klifi, Hechmi; Lili, Taieb

2013-07-01

This paper is devoted to the second-order closure for compressible turbulent flows with special attention paid to modeling the pressure-strain correlation appearing in the Reynolds stress equation. This term appears as the main one responsible for the changes of the turbulence structures that arise from structural compressibility effects. From the analysis and DNS results of Simone et al. and Sarkar, the compressibility effects on the homogeneous turbulence shear flow are parameterized by the gradient Mach number. Several experiment and DNS results suggest that the convective Mach number is appropriate to study the compressibility effects on the mixing layers. The extension of the LRR model recently proposed by Marzougui, Khlifi and Lili for the pressure-strain correlation gives results that are in disagreement with the DNS results of Sarkar for high-speed shear flows. This extension is revised to derive a turbulence model for the pressure-strain correlation in which the compressibility is included in the turbulent Mach number, the gradient Mach number and then the convective Mach number. The behavior of the proposed model is compared to the compressible model of Adumitroiae et al. for the pressure-strain correlation in two turbulent compressible flows: homogeneous shear flow and mixing layers. In compressible homogeneous shear flows, the predicted results are compared with the DNS data of Simone et al. and those of Sarkar. For low compressibility, the two compressible models are similar, but they become substantially different at high compressibilities. The proposed model shows good agreement with all cases of DNS results. Those of Adumitroiae et al. do not reflect any effect of a change in the initial value of the gradient Mach number on the Reynolds stress anisotropy. The models are used to simulate compressible mixing layers. Comparison of our predictions with those of Adumitroiae et al. and with the experimental results of Goebel et al. shows good qualitative agreement.

Cost-effectiveness models for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: cross-model comparison of hypothetical treatment scenarios.

PubMed

Hoogendoorn, Martine; Feenstra, Talitha L; Asukai, Yumi; Borg, Sixten; Hansen, Ryan N; Jansson, Sven-Arne; Samyshkin, Yevgeniy; Wacker, Margarethe; Briggs, Andrew H; Lloyd, Adam; Sullivan, Sean D; Rutten-van Mölken, Maureen P M H

2014-07-01

To compare different chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) cost-effectiveness models with respect to structure and input parameters and to cross-validate the models by running the same hypothetical treatment scenarios. COPD modeling groups simulated four hypothetical interventions with their model and compared the results with a reference scenario of no intervention. The four interventions modeled assumed 1) 20% reduction in decline in lung function, 2) 25% reduction in exacerbation frequency, 3) 10% reduction in all-cause mortality, and 4) all these effects combined. The interventions were simulated for a 5-year and lifetime horizon with standardization, if possible, for sex, age, COPD severity, smoking status, exacerbation frequencies, mortality due to other causes, utilities, costs, and discount rates. Furthermore, uncertainty around the outcomes of intervention four was compared. Seven out of nine contacted COPD modeling groups agreed to participate. The 5-year incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) for the most comprehensive intervention, intervention four, was €17,000/quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) for two models, €25,000 to €28,000/QALY for three models, and €47,000/QALY for the remaining two models. Differences in the ICERs could mainly be explained by differences in input values for disease progression, exacerbation-related mortality, and all-cause mortality, with high input values resulting in low ICERs and vice versa. Lifetime results were mainly affected by the input values for mortality. The probability of intervention four to be cost-effective at a willingness-to-pay value of €50,000/QALY was 90% to 100% for five models and about 70% and 50% for the other two models, respectively. Mortality was the most important factor determining the differences in cost-effectiveness outcomes between models. Copyright © 2014 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Large-area sheet task advanced dendritic web growth development

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Duncan, C. S.; Seidensticker, R. G.; Mchugh, J. P.

1983-01-01

The thermal stress models were used to test the effect of melt level on stress generation and growth velocity. The results indicate that melt level has only small effects on stresses but significant effects on growth velocity. These results are consistent with experimental growth from measured melt levels. A new low-stress design concept is being evaluated with the models. A width-limiting version of the low-stress J460 configuration was tested experimentally with results consistent with the design goals.

Using global sensitivity analysis of demographic models for ecological impact assessment.

PubMed

Aiello-Lammens, Matthew E; Akçakaya, H Resit

2017-02-01

Population viability analysis (PVA) is widely used to assess population-level impacts of environmental changes on species. When combined with sensitivity analysis, PVA yields insights into the effects of parameter and model structure uncertainty. This helps researchers prioritize efforts for further data collection so that model improvements are efficient and helps managers prioritize conservation and management actions. Usually, sensitivity is analyzed by varying one input parameter at a time and observing the influence that variation has over model outcomes. This approach does not account for interactions among parameters. Global sensitivity analysis (GSA) overcomes this limitation by varying several model inputs simultaneously. Then, regression techniques allow measuring the importance of input-parameter uncertainties. In many conservation applications, the goal of demographic modeling is to assess how different scenarios of impact or management cause changes in a population. This is challenging because the uncertainty of input-parameter values can be confounded with the effect of impacts and management actions. We developed a GSA method that separates model outcome uncertainty resulting from parameter uncertainty from that resulting from projected ecological impacts or simulated management actions, effectively separating the 2 main questions that sensitivity analysis asks. We applied this method to assess the effects of predicted sea-level rise on Snowy Plover (Charadrius nivosus). A relatively small number of replicate models (approximately 100) resulted in consistent measures of variable importance when not trying to separate the effects of ecological impacts from parameter uncertainty. However, many more replicate models (approximately 500) were required to separate these effects. These differences are important to consider when using demographic models to estimate ecological impacts of management actions. © 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.

On the usage of ultrasound computational models for decision making under ambiguity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dib, Gerges; Sexton, Samuel; Prowant, Matthew; Crawford, Susan; Diaz, Aaron

2018-04-01

Computer modeling and simulation is becoming pervasive within the non-destructive evaluation (NDE) industry as a convenient tool for designing and assessing inspection techniques. This raises a pressing need for developing quantitative techniques for demonstrating the validity and applicability of the computational models. Computational models provide deterministic results based on deterministic and well-defined input, or stochastic results based on inputs defined by probability distributions. However, computational models cannot account for the effects of personnel, procedures, and equipment, resulting in ambiguity about the efficacy of inspections based on guidance from computational models only. In addition, ambiguity arises when model inputs, such as the representation of realistic cracks, cannot be defined deterministically, probabilistically, or by intervals. In this work, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory demonstrates the ability of computational models to represent field measurements under known variabilities, and quantify the differences using maximum amplitude and power spectrum density metrics. Sensitivity studies are also conducted to quantify the effects of different input parameters on the simulation results.

Analysis of Palm Oil Production, Export, and Government Consumption to Gross Domestic Product of Five Districts in West Kalimantan by Panel Regression

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sulistianingsih, E.; Kiftiah, M.; Rosadi, D.; Wahyuni, H.

2017-04-01

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is an indicator of economic growth in a region. GDP is a panel data, which consists of cross-section and time series data. Meanwhile, panel regression is a tool which can be utilised to analyse panel data. There are three models in panel regression, namely Common Effect Model (CEM), Fixed Effect Model (FEM) and Random Effect Model (REM). The models will be chosen based on results of Chow Test, Hausman Test and Lagrange Multiplier Test. This research analyses palm oil about production, export, and government consumption to five district GDP are in West Kalimantan, namely Sanggau, Sintang, Sambas, Ketapang and Bengkayang by panel regression. Based on the results of analyses, it concluded that REM, which adjusted-determination-coefficient is 0,823, is the best model in this case. Also, according to the result, only Export and Government Consumption that influence GDP of the districts.

Probabilistic Material Strength Degradation Model for Inconel 718 Components Subjected to High Temperature, Mechanical Fatigue, Creep and Thermal Fatigue Effects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bast, Callie Corinne Scheidt

1994-01-01

This thesis presents the on-going development of methodology for a probabilistic material strength degradation model. The probabilistic model, in the form of a postulated randomized multifactor equation, provides for quantification of uncertainty in the lifetime material strength of aerospace propulsion system components subjected to a number of diverse random effects. This model is embodied in the computer program entitled PROMISS, which can include up to eighteen different effects. Presently, the model includes four effects that typically reduce lifetime strength: high temperature, mechanical fatigue, creep, and thermal fatigue. Statistical analysis was conducted on experimental Inconel 718 data obtained from the open literature. This analysis provided regression parameters for use as the model's empirical material constants, thus calibrating the model specifically for Inconel 718. Model calibration was carried out for four variables, namely, high temperature, mechanical fatigue, creep, and thermal fatigue. Methodology to estimate standard deviations of these material constants for input into the probabilistic material strength model was developed. Using the current version of PROMISS, entitled PROMISS93, a sensitivity study for the combined effects of mechanical fatigue, creep, and thermal fatigue was performed. Results, in the form of cumulative distribution functions, illustrated the sensitivity of lifetime strength to any current value of an effect. In addition, verification studies comparing a combination of mechanical fatigue and high temperature effects by model to the combination by experiment were conducted. Thus, for Inconel 718, the basic model assumption of independence between effects was evaluated. Results from this limited verification study strongly supported this assumption.

Tissue Acoustoelectric Effect Modeling From Solid Mechanics Theory.

PubMed

Song, Xizi; Qin, Yexian; Xu, Yanbin; Ingram, Pier; Witte, Russell S; Dong, Feng

2017-10-01

The acoustoelectric (AE) effect is a basic physical phenomenon, which underlies the changes made in the conductivity of a medium by the application of focused ultrasound. Recently, based on the AE effect, several biomedical imaging techniques have been widely studied, such as ultrasound-modulated electrical impedance tomography and ultrasound current source density imaging. To further investigate the mechanism of the AE effect in tissue and to provide guidance for such techniques, we have modeled the tissue AE effect using the theory of solid mechanics. Both bulk compression and thermal expansion of tissue are considered and discussed. Computation simulation shows that the muscle AE effect result, conductivity change rate, is 3.26×10 -3 with 4.3-MPa peak pressure, satisfying the theoretical value. Bulk compression plays the main role for muscle AE effect, while thermal expansion makes almost no contribution to it. In addition, the AE signals of porcine muscle are measured at different focal positions. With the same magnitude order and the same change trend, the experiment result confirms that the simulation result is effective. Both simulation and experimental results validate that tissue AE effect modeling using solid mechanics theory is feasible, which is of significance for the further development of related biomedical imaging techniques.

Hybrid model for forecasting time series with trend, seasonal and salendar variation patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suhartono; Rahayu, S. P.; Prastyo, D. D.; Wijayanti, D. G. P.; Juliyanto

2017-09-01

Most of the monthly time series data in economics and business in Indonesia and other Moslem countries not only contain trend and seasonal, but also affected by two types of calendar variation effects, i.e. the effect of the number of working days or trading and holiday effects. The purpose of this research is to develop a hybrid model or a combination of several forecasting models to predict time series that contain trend, seasonal and calendar variation patterns. This hybrid model is a combination of classical models (namely time series regression and ARIMA model) and/or modern methods (artificial intelligence method, i.e. Artificial Neural Networks). A simulation study was used to show that the proposed procedure for building the hybrid model could work well for forecasting time series with trend, seasonal and calendar variation patterns. Furthermore, the proposed hybrid model is applied for forecasting real data, i.e. monthly data about inflow and outflow of currency at Bank Indonesia. The results show that the hybrid model tend to provide more accurate forecasts than individual forecasting models. Moreover, this result is also in line with the third results of the M3 competition, i.e. the hybrid model on average provides a more accurate forecast than the individual model.

GCM Simulations of the Aerosol Indirect Effect: Sensitivity to Cloud Parameterization and Aerosol Burden

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Menon, Surabi; DelGenio, Anthony D.; Koch, Dorothy; Tselioudis, George; Hansen, James E. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

We describe the coupling of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) general circulation model (GCM) to an online sulfur chemistry model and source models for organic matter and sea-salt that is used to estimate the aerosol indirect effect. The cloud droplet number concentration is diagnosed empirically from field experiment datasets over land and ocean that observe droplet number and all three aerosol types simultaneously; corrections are made for implied variations in cloud turbulence levels. The resulting cloud droplet number is used to calculate variations in droplet effective radius, which in turn allows us to predict aerosol effects on cloud optical thickness and microphysical process rates. We calculate the aerosol indirect effect by differencing the top-of-the-atmosphere net cloud radiative forcing for simulations with present-day vs. pre-industrial emissions. Both the first (radiative) and second (microphysical) indirect effects are explored. We test the sensitivity of our results to cloud parameterization assumptions that control the vertical distribution of cloud occurrence, the autoconversion rate, and the aerosol scavenging rate, each of which feeds back significantly on the model aerosol burden. The global mean aerosol indirect effect for all three aerosol types ranges from -1.55 to -4.36 W m(exp -2) in our simulations. The results are quite sensitive to the pre-industrial background aerosol burden, with low pre-industrial burdens giving strong indirect effects, and to a lesser extent to the anthropogenic aerosol burden, with large burdens giving somewhat larger indirect effects. Because of this dependence on the background aerosol, model diagnostics such as albedo-particle size correlations and column cloud susceptibility, for which satellite validation products are available, are not good predictors of the resulting indirect effect.

GCM Simulations of the Aerosol Indirect Effect: Sensitivity to Cloud Parameterization and Aerosol Burden

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Menon, Surabi; DelGenio, Anthony D.; Koch, Dorothy; Tselioudis, George; Hansen, James E. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

We describe the coupling of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) general circulation model (GCM) to an online sulfur chemistry model and source models for organic matter and sea-salt that is used to estimate the aerosol indirect effect. The cloud droplet number concentration is diagnosed empirically from field experiment datasets over land and ocean that observe droplet number and all three aerosol types simultaneously; corrections are made for implied variations in cloud turbulence levels. The resulting cloud droplet number is used to calculate variations in droplet effective radius, which in turn allows us to predict aerosol effects on cloud optical thickness and microphysical process rates. We calculate the aerosol indirect effect by differencing the top-of-the-atmosphere net cloud radiative forcing for simulations with present-day vs. pre-industrial emissions. Both the first (radiative) and second (microphysical) indirect effects are explored. We test the sensitivity of our results to cloud parameterization assumptions that control the vertical distribution of cloud occurrence, the autoconversion rate, and the aerosol scavenging rate, each of which feeds back significantly on the model aerosol burden. The global mean aerosol indirect effect for all three aerosol types ranges from -1.55 to -4.36 W/sq m in our simulations. The results are quite sensitive to the pre-industrial background aerosol burden, with low pre-industrial burdens giving strong indirect effects, and to a lesser extent to the anthropogenic aerosol burden, with large burdens giving somewhat larger indirect effects. Because of this dependence on the background aerosol, model diagnostics such as albedo-particle size correlations and column cloud susceptibility, for which satellite validation products are available, are not good predictors of the resulting indirect effect.

Simple, Efficient Estimators of Treatment Effects in Randomized Trials Using Generalized Linear Models to Leverage Baseline Variables

PubMed Central

Rosenblum, Michael; van der Laan, Mark J.

2010-01-01

Models, such as logistic regression and Poisson regression models, are often used to estimate treatment effects in randomized trials. These models leverage information in variables collected before randomization, in order to obtain more precise estimates of treatment effects. However, there is the danger that model misspecification will lead to bias. We show that certain easy to compute, model-based estimators are asymptotically unbiased even when the working model used is arbitrarily misspecified. Furthermore, these estimators are locally efficient. As a special case of our main result, we consider a simple Poisson working model containing only main terms; in this case, we prove the maximum likelihood estimate of the coefficient corresponding to the treatment variable is an asymptotically unbiased estimator of the marginal log rate ratio, even when the working model is arbitrarily misspecified. This is the log-linear analog of ANCOVA for linear models. Our results demonstrate one application of targeted maximum likelihood estimation. PMID:20628636

Estimation of Survival Probabilities for Use in Cost-effectiveness Analyses: A Comparison of a Multi-state Modeling Survival Analysis Approach with Partitioned Survival and Markov Decision-Analytic Modeling

PubMed Central

Williams, Claire; Lewsey, James D.; Mackay, Daniel F.; Briggs, Andrew H.

2016-01-01

Modeling of clinical-effectiveness in a cost-effectiveness analysis typically involves some form of partitioned survival or Markov decision-analytic modeling. The health states progression-free, progression and death and the transitions between them are frequently of interest. With partitioned survival, progression is not modeled directly as a state; instead, time in that state is derived from the difference in area between the overall survival and the progression-free survival curves. With Markov decision-analytic modeling, a priori assumptions are often made with regard to the transitions rather than using the individual patient data directly to model them. This article compares a multi-state modeling survival regression approach to these two common methods. As a case study, we use a trial comparing rituximab in combination with fludarabine and cyclophosphamide v. fludarabine and cyclophosphamide alone for the first-line treatment of chronic lymphocytic leukemia. We calculated mean Life Years and QALYs that involved extrapolation of survival outcomes in the trial. We adapted an existing multi-state modeling approach to incorporate parametric distributions for transition hazards, to allow extrapolation. The comparison showed that, due to the different assumptions used in the different approaches, a discrepancy in results was evident. The partitioned survival and Markov decision-analytic modeling deemed the treatment cost-effective with ICERs of just over £16,000 and £13,000, respectively. However, the results with the multi-state modeling were less conclusive, with an ICER of just over £29,000. This work has illustrated that it is imperative to check whether assumptions are realistic, as different model choices can influence clinical and cost-effectiveness results. PMID:27698003

Estimation of Survival Probabilities for Use in Cost-effectiveness Analyses: A Comparison of a Multi-state Modeling Survival Analysis Approach with Partitioned Survival and Markov Decision-Analytic Modeling.

PubMed

Williams, Claire; Lewsey, James D; Mackay, Daniel F; Briggs, Andrew H

2017-05-01

Modeling of clinical-effectiveness in a cost-effectiveness analysis typically involves some form of partitioned survival or Markov decision-analytic modeling. The health states progression-free, progression and death and the transitions between them are frequently of interest. With partitioned survival, progression is not modeled directly as a state; instead, time in that state is derived from the difference in area between the overall survival and the progression-free survival curves. With Markov decision-analytic modeling, a priori assumptions are often made with regard to the transitions rather than using the individual patient data directly to model them. This article compares a multi-state modeling survival regression approach to these two common methods. As a case study, we use a trial comparing rituximab in combination with fludarabine and cyclophosphamide v. fludarabine and cyclophosphamide alone for the first-line treatment of chronic lymphocytic leukemia. We calculated mean Life Years and QALYs that involved extrapolation of survival outcomes in the trial. We adapted an existing multi-state modeling approach to incorporate parametric distributions for transition hazards, to allow extrapolation. The comparison showed that, due to the different assumptions used in the different approaches, a discrepancy in results was evident. The partitioned survival and Markov decision-analytic modeling deemed the treatment cost-effective with ICERs of just over £16,000 and £13,000, respectively. However, the results with the multi-state modeling were less conclusive, with an ICER of just over £29,000. This work has illustrated that it is imperative to check whether assumptions are realistic, as different model choices can influence clinical and cost-effectiveness results.

Stochastic Modelling, Analysis, and Simulations of the Solar Cycle Dynamic Process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Turner, Douglas C.; Ladde, Gangaram S.

2018-03-01

Analytical solutions, discretization schemes and simulation results are presented for the time delay deterministic differential equation model of the solar dynamo presented by Wilmot-Smith et al. In addition, this model is extended under stochastic Gaussian white noise parametric fluctuations. The introduction of stochastic fluctuations incorporates variables affecting the dynamo process in the solar interior, estimation error of parameters, and uncertainty of the α-effect mechanism. Simulation results are presented and analyzed to exhibit the effects of stochastic parametric volatility-dependent perturbations. The results generalize and extend the work of Hazra et al. In fact, some of these results exhibit the oscillatory dynamic behavior generated by the stochastic parametric additative perturbations in the absence of time delay. In addition, the simulation results of the modified stochastic models influence the change in behavior of the very recently developed stochastic model of Hazra et al.

Simulated effects of groundwater pumping and artificial recharge on surface-water resources and riparian vegetation in the Verde Valley sub-basin, Central Arizona

USGS Publications Warehouse

Leake, Stanley A.; Pool, Donald R.

2010-01-01

In the Verde Valley sub-basin, groundwater use has increased in recent decades. Residents and stakeholders in the area have established several groups to help in planning for sustainability of water and other resources of the area. One of the issues of concern is the effect of groundwater pumping in the sub-basin on surface water and on groundwater-dependent riparian vegetation. The Northern Arizona Regional Groundwater-Flow Model by Pool and others (in press) is the most comprehensive and up-to-date tool available to understand the effects of groundwater pumping in the sub-basin. Using a procedure by Leake and others (2008), this model was modified and used to calculate effects of groundwater pumping on surface-water flow and evapotranspiration for areas in the sub-basin. This report presents results for the upper two model layers for pumping durations of 10 and 50 years. Results are in the form of maps that indicate the fraction of the well pumping rate that can be accounted for as the combined effect of reduced surface-water flow and evapotranspiration. In general, the highest and most rapid responses to pumping were computed to occur near surface-water features simulated in the modified model, but results are not uniform along these features. The results are intended to indicate general patterns of model-computed response over large areas. For site-specific projects, improved results may require detailed studies of the local hydrologic conditions and a refinement of the modified model in the area of interest.

An equivalent dissipation rate model for capturing history effects in non-premixed flames

DOE PAGES

Kundu, Prithwish; Echekki, Tarek; Pei, Yuanjiang; ...

2016-11-11

The effects of strain rate history on turbulent flames have been studied in the. past decades with 1D counter flow diffusion flame (CFDF) configurations subjected to oscillating strain rates. In this work, these unsteady effects are studied for complex hydrocarbon fuel surrogates at engine relevant conditions with unsteady strain rates experienced by flamelets in a typical spray flame. Tabulated combustion models are based on a steady scalar dissipation rate (SDR) assumption and hence cannot capture these unsteady strain effects; even though they can capture the unsteady chemistry. In this work, 1D CFDF with varying strain rates are simulated using twomore » different modeling approaches: steady SDR assumption and unsteady flamelet model. Comparative studies show that the history effects due to unsteady SDR are directly proportional to the temporal gradient of the SDR. A new equivalent SDR model based on the history of a flamelet is proposed. An averaging procedure is constructed such that the most recent histories are given higher weights. This equivalent SDR is then used with the steady SDR assumption in 1D flamelets. Results show a good agreement between tabulated flamelet solution and the unsteady flamelet results. This equivalent SDR concept is further implemented and compared against 3D spray flames (Engine Combustion Network Spray A). Tabulated models based on steady SDR assumption under-predict autoignition and flame lift-off when compared with an unsteady Representative Interactive Flamelet (RIF) model. However, equivalent SDR model coupled with the tabulated model predicted autoignition and flame lift-off very close to those reported by the RIF model. This model is further validated for a range of injection pressures for Spray A flames. As a result, the new modeling framework now enables tabulated models with significantly lower computational cost to account for unsteady history effects.« less

An equivalent dissipation rate model for capturing history effects in non-premixed flames

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kundu, Prithwish; Echekki, Tarek; Pei, Yuanjiang

The effects of strain rate history on turbulent flames have been studied in the. past decades with 1D counter flow diffusion flame (CFDF) configurations subjected to oscillating strain rates. In this work, these unsteady effects are studied for complex hydrocarbon fuel surrogates at engine relevant conditions with unsteady strain rates experienced by flamelets in a typical spray flame. Tabulated combustion models are based on a steady scalar dissipation rate (SDR) assumption and hence cannot capture these unsteady strain effects; even though they can capture the unsteady chemistry. In this work, 1D CFDF with varying strain rates are simulated using twomore » different modeling approaches: steady SDR assumption and unsteady flamelet model. Comparative studies show that the history effects due to unsteady SDR are directly proportional to the temporal gradient of the SDR. A new equivalent SDR model based on the history of a flamelet is proposed. An averaging procedure is constructed such that the most recent histories are given higher weights. This equivalent SDR is then used with the steady SDR assumption in 1D flamelets. Results show a good agreement between tabulated flamelet solution and the unsteady flamelet results. This equivalent SDR concept is further implemented and compared against 3D spray flames (Engine Combustion Network Spray A). Tabulated models based on steady SDR assumption under-predict autoignition and flame lift-off when compared with an unsteady Representative Interactive Flamelet (RIF) model. However, equivalent SDR model coupled with the tabulated model predicted autoignition and flame lift-off very close to those reported by the RIF model. This model is further validated for a range of injection pressures for Spray A flames. As a result, the new modeling framework now enables tabulated models with significantly lower computational cost to account for unsteady history effects.« less

Variation in Estimated Ozone-Related Health Impacts of Climate Change due to Modeling Choices and Assumptions

PubMed Central

Post, Ellen S.; Grambsch, Anne; Weaver, Chris; Morefield, Philip; Leung, Lai-Yung; Nolte, Christopher G.; Adams, Peter; Liang, Xin-Zhong; Zhu, Jin-Hong; Mahoney, Hardee

2012-01-01

Background: Future climate change may cause air quality degradation via climate-induced changes in meteorology, atmospheric chemistry, and emissions into the air. Few studies have explicitly modeled the potential relationships between climate change, air quality, and human health, and fewer still have investigated the sensitivity of estimates to the underlying modeling choices. Objectives: Our goal was to assess the sensitivity of estimated ozone-related human health impacts of climate change to key modeling choices. Methods: Our analysis included seven modeling systems in which a climate change model is linked to an air quality model, five population projections, and multiple concentration–response functions. Using the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA’s) Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program (BenMAP), we estimated future ozone (O3)-related health effects in the United States attributable to simulated climate change between the years 2000 and approximately 2050, given each combination of modeling choices. Health effects and concentration–response functions were chosen to match those used in the U.S. EPA’s 2008 Regulatory Impact Analysis of the National Ambient Air Quality Standards for O3. Results: Different combinations of methodological choices produced a range of estimates of national O3-related mortality from roughly 600 deaths avoided as a result of climate change to 2,500 deaths attributable to climate change (although the large majority produced increases in mortality). The choice of the climate change and the air quality model reflected the greatest source of uncertainty, with the other modeling choices having lesser but still substantial effects. Conclusions: Our results highlight the need to use an ensemble approach, instead of relying on any one set of modeling choices, to assess the potential risks associated with O3-related human health effects resulting from climate change. PMID:22796531

Bariatric Outcomes and Obesity Modeling: Study Meeting

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-09-17

to obesity. 15. SUBJECT TERMS Bariatric Surgery , Cost Effectiveness, Surgical Outcome 16. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF: 17. LIMITATION OF a. REPORT...EFFECTIVENESS MODEL OVERVIEW  Two parts: 1) Decision Tree and 2) Natural History Model  Results: Bariatric Surgery is cost-effective compared to no...9,300 for AGB $10,600 for LRYGB AGB: Adjustable gastric banding LRYGB: laparoscopic Roux-en-Y gastric bypass A Financial Model of Bariatric Surgery for

Does Supportive Parenting Mitigate the Longitudinal Effects of Peer Victimization on Depressive Thoughts and Symptoms in Children?

PubMed Central

Bilsky, Sarah A.; Cole, David A.; Dukewich, Tammy L.; Martin, Nina C.; Sinclair, Keneisha R.; Tran, Cong V.; Roeder, Kathryn M.; Felton, Julia W.; Tilghman-Osborne, Carlos; Weitlauf, Amy S.; Maxwell, Melissa A.

2014-01-01

Cohen and Wills (Cohen, S., & Wills, T. A., 1985, Stress, social support, and the buffering hypothesis. Psychological Bulletin, 98, 310–357) described two broad models whereby social support could mitigate the deleterious effects of stress on health: a main effect model and stress-buffering model. A specific application of these models was tested in a three-wave, multimethod study of 1888 children to assess ways parental support (social support) mitigates the effects of peer victimization (stress) on children’s depressive symptoms and depression-related cognitions (health-related outcomes). Results revealed that (a) both supportive parenting and peer victimization had main effects on depressive symptoms and cognitions; (b) supportive parenting and peer victimization did not interact in the prediction of depressive thoughts and symptoms; (c) these results generalized across age and gender; and (d) increases in depressive symptoms were related to later reduction of supportive parenting and later increase in peer victimization. Although supportive parenting did not moderate the adverse outcomes associated with peer victimization, results show that its main effect can counterbalance or offset these effects to some degree. Implications for practice and future research are discussed. PMID:23713500

Does supportive parenting mitigate the longitudinal effects of peer victimization on depressive thoughts and symptoms in children?

PubMed

Bilsky, Sarah A; Cole, David A; Dukewich, Tammy L; Martin, Nina C; Sinclair, Keneisha R; Tran, Cong V; Roeder, Kathryn M; Felton, Julia W; Tilghman-Osborne, Carlos; Weitlauf, Amy S; Maxwell, Melissa A

2013-05-01

Cohen and Wills (Cohen, S., & Wills, T. A., 1985, Stress, social support, and the buffering hypothesis. Psychological Bulletin, 98, 310-357) described two broad models whereby social support could mitigate the deleterious effects of stress on health: a main effect model and stress-buffering model. A specific application of these models was tested in a three-wave, multimethod study of 1888 children to assess ways parental support (social support) mitigates the effects of peer victimization (stress) on children's depressive symptoms and depression-related cognitions (health-related outcomes). Results revealed that (a) both supportive parenting and peer victimization had main effects on depressive symptoms and cognitions; (b) supportive parenting and peer victimization did not interact in the prediction of depressive thoughts and symptoms; (c) these results generalized across age and gender; and (d) increases in depressive symptoms were related to later reduction of supportive parenting and later increase in peer victimization. Although supportive parenting did not moderate the adverse outcomes associated with peer victimization, results show that its main effect can counterbalance or offset these effects to some degree. Implications for practice and future research are discussed. © 2013 American Psychological Association

Robustness of Value-Added Analysis of School Effectiveness. Research Report. ETS RR-08-22

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Braun, Henry; Qu, Yanxuan

2008-01-01

This paper reports on a study conducted to investigate the consistency of the results between 2 approaches to estimating school effectiveness through value-added modeling. Estimates of school effects from the layered model employing item response theory (IRT) scaled data are compared to estimates derived from a discrete growth model based on the…

Framework for modelling the cost-effectiveness of systemic interventions aimed to reduce youth delinquency.

PubMed

Schawo, Saskia J; van Eeren, Hester; Soeteman, Djira I; van der Veldt, Marie-Christine; Noom, Marc J; Brouwer, Werner; Busschbach, Jan J V; Hakkaart, Leona

2012-12-01

Many interventions initiated within and financed from the health care sector are not necessarily primarily aimed at improving health. This poses important questions regarding the operationalisation of economic evaluations in such contexts. We investigated whether assessing cost-effectiveness using state-of-the-art methods commonly applied in health care evaluations is feasible and meaningful when evaluating interventions aimed at reducing youth delinquency. A probabilistic Markov model was constructed to create a framework for the assessment of the cost-effectiveness of systemic interventions in delinquent youth. For illustrative purposes, Functional Family Therapy (FFT), a systemic intervention aimed at improving family functioning and, primarily, reducing delinquent activity in youths, was compared to Treatment as Usual (TAU). "Criminal activity free years" (CAFYs) were introduced as central outcome measure. Criminal activity may e.g. be based on police contacts or committed crimes. In absence of extensive data and for illustrative purposes the current study based criminal activity on available literature on recidivism. Furthermore, a literature search was performed to deduce the model's structure and parameters. Common cost-effectiveness methodology could be applied to interventions for youth delinquency. Model characteristics and parameters were derived from literature and ongoing trial data. The model resulted in an estimate of incremental costs/CAFY and included long-term effects. Illustrative model results point towards dominance of FFT compared to TAU. Using a probabilistic model and the CAFY outcome measure to assess cost-effectiveness of systemic interventions aimed to reduce delinquency is feasible. However, the model structure is limited to three states and the CAFY measure was defined rather crude. Moreover, as the model parameters are retrieved from literature the model results are illustrative in the absence of empirical data. The current model provides a framework to assess the cost-effectiveness of systemic interventions, while taking into account parameter uncertainty and long-term effectiveness. The framework of the model could be used to assess the cost-effectiveness of systemic interventions alongside (clinical) trial data. Consequently, it is suitable to inform reimbursement decisions, since the value for money of systemic interventions can be demonstrated using a decision analytic model. Future research could be focussed on testing the current model based on extensive empirical data, improving the outcome measure and finding appropriate values for that outcome.

Empirical study of the dependence of the results of multivariable flexible survival analyses on model selection strategy.

PubMed

Binquet, C; Abrahamowicz, M; Mahboubi, A; Jooste, V; Faivre, J; Bonithon-Kopp, C; Quantin, C

2008-12-30

Flexible survival models, which avoid assumptions about hazards proportionality (PH) or linearity of continuous covariates effects, bring the issues of model selection to a new level of complexity. Each 'candidate covariate' requires inter-dependent decisions regarding (i) its inclusion in the model, and representation of its effects on the log hazard as (ii) either constant over time or time-dependent (TD) and, for continuous covariates, (iii) either loglinear or non-loglinear (NL). Moreover, 'optimal' decisions for one covariate depend on the decisions regarding others. Thus, some efficient model-building strategy is necessary.We carried out an empirical study of the impact of the model selection strategy on the estimates obtained in flexible multivariable survival analyses of prognostic factors for mortality in 273 gastric cancer patients. We used 10 different strategies to select alternative multivariable parametric as well as spline-based models, allowing flexible modeling of non-parametric (TD and/or NL) effects. We employed 5-fold cross-validation to compare the predictive ability of alternative models.All flexible models indicated significant non-linearity and changes over time in the effect of age at diagnosis. Conventional 'parametric' models suggested the lack of period effect, whereas more flexible strategies indicated a significant NL effect. Cross-validation confirmed that flexible models predicted better mortality. The resulting differences in the 'final model' selected by various strategies had also impact on the risk prediction for individual subjects.Overall, our analyses underline (a) the importance of accounting for significant non-parametric effects of covariates and (b) the need for developing accurate model selection strategies for flexible survival analyses. Copyright 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Effects of distributed database modeling on evaluation of transaction rollbacks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mukkamala, Ravi

1991-01-01

Data distribution, degree of data replication, and transaction access patterns are key factors in determining the performance of distributed database systems. In order to simplify the evaluation of performance measures, database designers and researchers tend to make simplistic assumptions about the system. The effect is studied of modeling assumptions on the evaluation of one such measure, the number of transaction rollbacks, in a partitioned distributed database system. Six probabilistic models and expressions are developed for the numbers of rollbacks under each of these models. Essentially, the models differ in terms of the available system information. The analytical results so obtained are compared to results from simulation. From here, it is concluded that most of the probabilistic models yield overly conservative estimates of the number of rollbacks. The effect of transaction commutativity on system throughout is also grossly undermined when such models are employed.

Effects of distributed database modeling on evaluation of transaction rollbacks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mukkamala, Ravi

1991-01-01

Data distribution, degree of data replication, and transaction access patterns are key factors in determining the performance of distributed database systems. In order to simplify the evaluation of performance measures, database designers and researchers tend to make simplistic assumptions about the system. Here, researchers investigate the effect of modeling assumptions on the evaluation of one such measure, the number of transaction rollbacks in a partitioned distributed database system. The researchers developed six probabilistic models and expressions for the number of rollbacks under each of these models. Essentially, the models differ in terms of the available system information. The analytical results obtained are compared to results from simulation. It was concluded that most of the probabilistic models yield overly conservative estimates of the number of rollbacks. The effect of transaction commutativity on system throughput is also grossly undermined when such models are employed.

Assessing agricultural risks of climate change in the 21st century in a global gridded crop model intercomparison

PubMed Central

Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Elliott, Joshua; Deryng, Delphine; Ruane, Alex C.; Müller, Christoph; Arneth, Almut; Boote, Kenneth J.; Folberth, Christian; Glotter, Michael; Khabarov, Nikolay; Neumann, Kathleen; Piontek, Franziska; Pugh, Thomas A. M.; Schmid, Erwin; Stehfest, Elke; Yang, Hong; Jones, James W.

2014-01-01

Here we present the results from an intercomparison of multiple global gridded crop models (GGCMs) within the framework of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project and the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project. Results indicate strong negative effects of climate change, especially at higher levels of warming and at low latitudes; models that include explicit nitrogen stress project more severe impacts. Across seven GGCMs, five global climate models, and four representative concentration pathways, model agreement on direction of yield changes is found in many major agricultural regions at both low and high latitudes; however, reducing uncertainty in sign of response in mid-latitude regions remains a challenge. Uncertainties related to the representation of carbon dioxide, nitrogen, and high temperature effects demonstrated here show that further research is urgently needed to better understand effects of climate change on agricultural production and to devise targeted adaptation strategies. PMID:24344314

Assessing Agricultural Risks of Climate Change in the 21st Century in a Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rosenzweig, Cynthia E.; Elliott, Joshua; Deryng, Delphine; Ruane, Alex C.; Mueller, Christoph; Arneth, Almut; Boote, Kenneth J.; Folberth, Christian; Glotter, Michael; Khabarov, Nikolay

2014-01-01

Here we present the results from an intercomparison of multiple global gridded crop models (GGCMs) within the framework of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project and the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project. Results indicate strong negative effects of climate change, especially at higher levels of warming and at low latitudes; models that include explicit nitrogen stress project more severe impacts. Across seven GGCMs, five global climate models, and four representative concentration pathways, model agreement on direction of yield changes is found in many major agricultural regions at both low and high latitudes; however, reducing uncertainty in sign of response in mid-latitude regions remains a challenge. Uncertainties related to the representation of carbon dioxide, nitrogen, and high temperature effects demonstrated here show that further research is urgently needed to better understand effects of climate change on agricultural production and to devise targeted adaptation strategies.

A Spatial Model of the Mere Exposure Effect.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fink, Edward L.; And Others

1989-01-01

Uses a spatial model to examine the relationship between stimulus exposure, cognition, and affect. Notes that this model accounts for cognitive changes that a stimulus may acquire as a result of exposure. Concludes that the spatial model is useful for evaluating the mere exposure effect and that affective change does not require cognitive change.…

Systematic Modeling versus the Learning Cycle: Comparative Effects of Integrated Science Process Skill Achievement.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Norman, John T.

1992-01-01

Reports effectiveness of modeling as teaching strategy on learning science process skills. Teachers of urban sixth through ninth grade students were taught modeling techniques; two sets of teachers served as controls. Results indicate students taught by teachers employing modeling instruction exhibited significantly higher competence in process…

RF verification tasks underway at the Harris Corporation for multiple aperture reflector system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gutwein, T. A.

1982-01-01

Mesh effects on gain and patterns and adjacent aperture coupling effects for "pie" and circular apertures are discussed. Wire effects for Harris model with Langley scale model results included for assessing D/lamda effects, and wire effects with adjacent aperture coupling were determined. Reflector surface distortion effects (pillows and manufacturing roughness) were studied.

Mathematical modeling of static layer crystallization for propellant grade hydrogen peroxide

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hao, Lin; Chen, Xinghua; Sun, Yaozhou; Liu, Yangyang; Li, Shuai; Zhang, Mengqian

2017-07-01

Hydrogen peroxide (H2O2) is an important raw material widely used in many fields. In this work a mathematical model of heat conduction with a moving boundary was proposed to study the melt crystallization process of hydrogen peroxide which was carried out outside a cylindrical crystallizer. Considering the effects of the temperature of the cooling fluid on the thermal conductivity of crude crystal, the model is an improvement of Guardani's research and can be solved by analytic iteration method. An experiment was designed to measure the thickness of crystal layer with time under different conditions. A series of analysis, including the effects of different refrigerant temperature on crystal growth rate, the effects of different cooling rates on crystal layer growth rate, the effects of crystallization temperature on heat transfer and the model's application scope were conducted based on the comparison between experimental results and simulation results of the model.

Modeling skull's acoustic attenuation and dispersion on photoacoustic signal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohammadi, L.; Behnam, H.; Nasiriavanaki, M. R.

2017-03-01

Despite the great promising results of a recent new transcranial photoacoustic brain imaging technology, it has been shown that the presence of the skull severely affects the performance of this imaging modality. In this paper, we investigate the effect of skull on generated photoacoustic signals with a mathematical model. The developed model takes into account the frequency dependence attenuation and acoustic dispersion effects occur with the wave reflection and refraction at the skull surface. Numerical simulations based on the developed model are performed for calculating the propagation of photoacoustic waves through the skull. From the simulation results, it was found that the skull-induced distortion becomes very important and the reconstructed image would be strongly distorted without correcting these effects. In this regard, it is anticipated that an accurate quantification and modeling of the skull transmission effects would ultimately allow for skull aberration correction in transcranial photoacoustic brain imaging.

Combining inferences from models of capture efficiency, detectability, and suitable habitat to classify landscapes for conservation of threatened bull trout

USGS Publications Warehouse

Peterson, J.; Dunham, J.B.

2003-01-01

Effective conservation efforts for at-risk species require knowledge of the locations of existing populations. Species presence can be estimated directly by conducting field-sampling surveys or alternatively by developing predictive models. Direct surveys can be expensive and inefficient, particularly for rare and difficult-to-sample species, and models of species presence may produce biased predictions. We present a Bayesian approach that combines sampling and model-based inferences for estimating species presence. The accuracy and cost-effectiveness of this approach were compared to those of sampling surveys and predictive models for estimating the presence of the threatened bull trout ( Salvelinus confluentus ) via simulation with existing models and empirical sampling data. Simulations indicated that a sampling-only approach would be the most effective and would result in the lowest presence and absence misclassification error rates for three thresholds of detection probability. When sampling effort was considered, however, the combined approach resulted in the lowest error rates per unit of sampling effort. Hence, lower probability-of-detection thresholds can be specified with the combined approach, resulting in lower misclassification error rates and improved cost-effectiveness.

Isolating Curvature Effects in Computing Wall-Bounded Turbulent Flows

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rumsey, Christopher L.; Gatski, Thomas B.

2001-01-01

The flow over the zero-pressure-gradient So-Mellor convex curved wall is simulated using the Navier-Stokes equations. An inviscid effective outer wall shape, undocumented in the experiment, is obtained by using an adjoint optimization method with the desired pressure distribution on the inner wall as the cost function. Using this wall shape with a Navier-Stokes method, the abilities of various turbulence models to simulate the effects of curvature without the complicating factor of streamwise pressure gradient can be evaluated. The one-equation Spalart-Allmaras turbulence model overpredicts eddy viscosity, and its boundary layer profiles are too full. A curvature-corrected version of this model improves results, which are sensitive to the choice of a particular constant. An explicit algebraic stress model does a reasonable job predicting this flow field. However, results can be slightly improved by modifying the assumption on anisotropy equilibrium in the model's derivation. The resulting curvature-corrected explicit algebraic stress model possesses no heuristic functions or additional constants. It lowers slightly the computed skin friction coefficient and the turbulent stress levels for this case (in better agreement with experiment), but the effect on computed velocity profiles is very small.

Does integration matter? A holistic model for building community resilience in Pakistan.

PubMed

Kanta Kafle, Shesh

2017-01-01

This paper analyses an integrated communitybased risk reduction model adopted by the Pakistan Red Crescent. The paper analyses the model's constructs and definitions, and provides a conceptual framework and a set of practical recommendations for building community resilience. The study uses the process of outcome-based resilience index to assess the effectiveness of the approach. The results indicate that the integrated programming approach is an effective way to build community resilience as it offers a number of tangible and longlasting benefits, including effective and efficient service delivery, local ownership, sustainability of results, and improved local resilience with respect to the shock and stress associated with disaster. The paper also outlines a set of recommendations for the effective and efficient use of the model for building community resilience in Pakistan.

On the effect of response transformations in sequential parameter optimization.

PubMed

Wagner, Tobias; Wessing, Simon

2012-01-01

Parameter tuning of evolutionary algorithms (EAs) is attracting more and more interest. In particular, the sequential parameter optimization (SPO) framework for the model-assisted tuning of stochastic optimizers has resulted in established parameter tuning algorithms. In this paper, we enhance the SPO framework by introducing transformation steps before the response aggregation and before the actual modeling. Based on design-of-experiments techniques, we empirically analyze the effect of integrating different transformations. We show that in particular, a rank transformation of the responses provides significant improvements. A deeper analysis of the resulting models and additional experiments with adaptive procedures indicates that the rank and the Box-Cox transformation are able to improve the properties of the resultant distributions with respect to symmetry and normality of the residuals. Moreover, model-based effect plots document a higher discriminatory power obtained by the rank transformation.

Observational learning of fly casting using traditional and virtual modeling with and without authority figure.

PubMed

Kernodle, Michael W; McKethan, Robert N; Rabinowitz, Erik

2008-10-01

Traditional and virtual modeling were compared during learning of a multiple degree-of-freedom skill (fly casting) to assess the effect of the presence or absence of an authority figure on observational learning via virtual modeling. Participants were randomly assigned to one of four groups: Virtual Modeling with an authority figure present (VM-A) (n = 16), Virtual Modeling without an authority figure (VM-NA) (n = 16), Traditional Instruction (n = 17), and Control (n = 19). Results showed significant between-group differences on Form and Skill Acquisition scores. Except for one instance, all three learning procedures resulted in significant learning of fly casting. Virtual modeling with or without an authority figure present was as effective as traditional instruction; however, learning without an authority figure was less effective with regard to Accuracy scores.

The spatial Probit model-An application to the study of banking crises at the end of the 1990’s

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amaral, Andrea; Abreu, Margarida; Mendes, Victor

2014-12-01

We use a spatial Probit model to study the effect of contagion between banking systems of different countries. Applied to the late 1990s banking crisis in Asia we show that the phenomena of contagion is better seized using a spatial than a traditional Probit model. Unlike the latter, the spatial Probit model allows one to consider the cascade of cross and feedback effects of contagion that result from the outbreak of one initial crisis in one country or system. These contagion effects may result either from business connections between institutions of different countries or from institutional similarities between banking systems.

Modeling the target acquisition performance of active imaging systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Espinola, Richard L.; Jacobs, Eddie L.; Halford, Carl E.; Vollmerhausen, Richard; Tofsted, David H.

2007-04-01

Recent development of active imaging system technology in the defense and security community have driven the need for a theoretical understanding of its operation and performance in military applications such as target acquisition. In this paper, the modeling of active imaging systems, developed at the U.S. Army RDECOM CERDEC Night Vision & Electronic Sensors Directorate, is presented with particular emphasis on the impact of coherent effects such as speckle and atmospheric scintillation. Experimental results from human perception tests are in good agreement with the model results, validating the modeling of coherent effects as additional noise sources. Example trade studies on the design of a conceptual active imaging system to mitigate deleterious coherent effects are shown.

Modeling the target acquisition performance of active imaging systems.

PubMed

Espinola, Richard L; Jacobs, Eddie L; Halford, Carl E; Vollmerhausen, Richard; Tofsted, David H

2007-04-02

Recent development of active imaging system technology in the defense and security community have driven the need for a theoretical understanding of its operation and performance in military applications such as target acquisition. In this paper, the modeling of active imaging systems, developed at the U.S. Army RDECOM CERDEC Night Vision & Electronic Sensors Directorate, is presented with particular emphasis on the impact of coherent effects such as speckle and atmospheric scintillation. Experimental results from human perception tests are in good agreement with the model results, validating the modeling of coherent effects as additional noise sources. Example trade studies on the design of a conceptual active imaging system to mitigate deleterious coherent effects are shown.

An Evaluation of Alternative Functional Models of Narrative Schemata,

DTIC Science & Technology

1980-07-01

proposi- tions. This model, like models 2L-5L, predicts a levels effect for both recall and recognition due to differential initial encoding of...Table 1. Model 7L. Model 7L differs from 6L in assuming top-down search. This model thus predicts a levels effect in recall based on probabilis- tic...Bower (1980) failed to find a levels effect in recall of narratives. To compare our results to -20- .70- 501 A I iMMED IATE 0 40 1--- 0c. 3 0 1 020 .00

A Markov chain model for studying suicide dynamics: an illustration of the Rose theorem

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background High-risk strategies would only have a modest effect on suicide prevention within a population. It is best to incorporate both high-risk and population-based strategies to prevent suicide. This study aims to compare the effectiveness of suicide prevention between high-risk and population-based strategies. Methods A Markov chain illness and death model is proposed to determine suicide dynamic in a population and examine its effectiveness for reducing the number of suicides by modifying certain parameters of the model. Assuming a population with replacement, the suicide risk of the population was estimated by determining the final state of the Markov model. Results The model shows that targeting the whole population for suicide prevention is more effective than reducing risk in the high-risk tail of the distribution of psychological distress (i.e. the mentally ill). Conclusions The results of this model reinforce the essence of the Rose theorem that lowering the suicidal risk in the population at large may be more effective than reducing the high risk in a small population. PMID:24948330

In silico simulations of experimental protocols for cardiac modeling.

PubMed

Carro, Jesus; Rodriguez, Jose Felix; Pueyo, Esther

2014-01-01

A mathematical model of the AP involves the sum of different transmembrane ionic currents and the balance of intracellular ionic concentrations. To each ionic current corresponds an equation involving several effects. There are a number of model parameters that must be identified using specific experimental protocols in which the effects are considered as independent. However, when the model complexity grows, the interaction between effects becomes increasingly important. Therefore, model parameters identified considering the different effects as independent might be misleading. In this work, a novel methodology consisting in performing in silico simulations of the experimental protocol and then comparing experimental and simulated outcomes is proposed for parameter model identification and validation. The potential of the methodology is demonstrated by validating voltage-dependent L-type calcium current (ICaL) inactivation in recently proposed human ventricular AP models with different formulations. Our results show large differences between ICaL inactivation as calculated from the model equation and ICaL inactivation from the in silico simulations due to the interaction between effects and/or to the experimental protocol. Our results suggest that, when proposing any new model formulation, consistency between such formulation and the corresponding experimental data that is aimed at being reproduced needs to be first verified considering all involved factors.

Inferring Fitness Effects from Time-Resolved Sequence Data with a Delay-Deterministic Model

PubMed Central

Nené, Nuno R.; Dunham, Alistair S.; Illingworth, Christopher J. R.

2018-01-01

A common challenge arising from the observation of an evolutionary system over time is to infer the magnitude of selection acting upon a specific genetic variant, or variants, within the population. The inference of selection may be confounded by the effects of genetic drift in a system, leading to the development of inference procedures to account for these effects. However, recent work has suggested that deterministic models of evolution may be effective in capturing the effects of selection even under complex models of demography, suggesting the more general application of deterministic approaches to inference. Responding to this literature, we here note a case in which a deterministic model of evolution may give highly misleading inferences, resulting from the nondeterministic properties of mutation in a finite population. We propose an alternative approach that acts to correct for this error, and which we denote the delay-deterministic model. Applying our model to a simple evolutionary system, we demonstrate its performance in quantifying the extent of selection acting within that system. We further consider the application of our model to sequence data from an evolutionary experiment. We outline scenarios in which our model may produce improved results for the inference of selection, noting that such situations can be easily identified via the use of a regular deterministic model. PMID:29500183

Conflict effects without conflict in anterior cingulate cortex: multiple response effects and context specific representations

PubMed Central

Brown, Joshua W.

2009-01-01

The error likelihood computational model of anterior cingulate cortex (ACC) (Brown & Braver, 2005) has successfully predicted error likelihood effects, risk prediction effects, and how individual differences in conflict and error likelihood effects vary with trait differences in risk aversion. The same computational model now makes a further prediction that apparent conflict effects in ACC may result in part from an increasing number of simultaneously active responses, regardless of whether or not the cued responses are mutually incompatible. In Experiment 1, the model prediction was tested with a modification of the Eriksen flanker task, in which some task conditions require two otherwise mutually incompatible responses to be generated simultaneously. In that case, the two response processes are no longer in conflict with each other. The results showed small but significant medial PFC effects in the incongruent vs. congruent contrast, despite the absence of response conflict, consistent with model predictions. This is the multiple response effect. Nonetheless, actual response conflict led to greater ACC activation, suggesting that conflict effects are specific to particular task contexts. In Experiment 2, results from a change signal task suggested that the context dependence of conflict signals does not depend on error likelihood effects. Instead, inputs to ACC may reflect complex and task specific representations of motor acts, such as bimanual responses. Overall, the results suggest the existence of a richer set of motor signals monitored by medial PFC and are consistent with distinct effects of multiple responses, conflict, and error likelihood in medial PFC. PMID:19375509

Scale effect challenges in urban hydrology highlighted with a distributed hydrological model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ichiba, Abdellah; Gires, Auguste; Tchiguirinskaia, Ioulia; Schertzer, Daniel; Bompard, Philippe; Ten Veldhuis, Marie-Claire

2018-01-01

Hydrological models are extensively used in urban water management, development and evaluation of future scenarios and research activities. There is a growing interest in the development of fully distributed and grid-based models. However, some complex questions related to scale effects are not yet fully understood and still remain open issues in urban hydrology. In this paper we propose a two-step investigation framework to illustrate the extent of scale effects in urban hydrology. First, fractal tools are used to highlight the scale dependence observed within distributed data input into urban hydrological models. Then an intensive multi-scale modelling work is carried out to understand scale effects on hydrological model performance. Investigations are conducted using a fully distributed and physically based model, Multi-Hydro, developed at Ecole des Ponts ParisTech. The model is implemented at 17 spatial resolutions ranging from 100 to 5 m. Results clearly exhibit scale effect challenges in urban hydrology modelling. The applicability of fractal concepts highlights the scale dependence observed within distributed data. Patterns of geophysical data change when the size of the observation pixel changes. The multi-scale modelling investigation confirms scale effects on hydrological model performance. Results are analysed over three ranges of scales identified in the fractal analysis and confirmed through modelling. This work also discusses some remaining issues in urban hydrology modelling related to the availability of high-quality data at high resolutions, and model numerical instabilities as well as the computation time requirements. The main findings of this paper enable a replacement of traditional methods of model calibration by innovative methods of model resolution alteration based on the spatial data variability and scaling of flows in urban hydrology.

Exploring the Relationship Between Social Anxiety and Bulimic Symptoms: Mediational Effects of Perfectionism Among Females

PubMed Central

Menatti, Andrew R.; Weeks, Justin W.; Levinson, Cheri A.; McGowan, Maggie M.

2013-01-01

Previous findings indicate that social anxiety and bulimia co-occur at high rates; one mechanism that has been proposed to link these symptom clusters is perfectionism. We tested meditational models among 167 female undergraduates in which maladaptive evaluative perfectionism concerns (MEPC; i.e., critical self-evaluative perfectionism) mediated the relationship between social anxiety and bulimic symptoms. Results from a first model indicated that MEPC mediated the relationship between fear of public scrutiny and bulimia symptoms. This indirect effect was significant above and beyond the indirect effects of maladaptive body-image cognitions and perfectionism specific to pure personal standards. A second model was tested with MEPC mediating the relationship between social interaction anxiety and bulimia symptoms. Similar results were obtained; however, in this model, a significant direct effect remained after partialing out the indirect effect of the mediators. Theoretical implications are discussed. PMID:24932054

Physician leadership styles and effectiveness: an empirical study.

PubMed

Xirasagar, Sudha; Samuels, Michael E; Stoskopf, Carleen H

2005-12-01

The authors study the association between physician leadership styles and leadership effectiveness. Executive directors of community health centers were surveyed (269 respondents; response rate = 40.9 percent) for their perceptions of the medical director's leadership behaviors and effectiveness, using an adapted Multifactor Leadership Questionnaire (43 items on a 0-4 point Likert-type scale), with additional questions on demographics and the center's clinical goals and achievements. The authors hypothesize that transformational leadership would be more positively associated with executive directors' ratings of effectiveness, satisfaction with the leader, and subordinate extra effort, as well as the center's clinical goal achievement, than transactional or laissez-faire leadership. Separate ordinary least squares regressions were used to model each of the effectiveness measures, and general linear model regression was used to model clinical goal achievement. Results support the hypothesis and suggest that physician leadership development using the transformational leadership model may result in improved health care quality and cost control.

Interaction between Faraday rotation and Cotton-Mouton effects in polarimetry modeling for NSTX

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhang, J.; Crocker, N. A.; Carter, T. A.

The evolution of electromagnetic wave polarization is modeled for propagation in the major radial direction in the National Spherical Torus Experiment with retroreflection from the center stack of the vacuum vessel. This modeling illustrates that the Cotton-Mouton effect-elliptization due to the magnetic field perpendicular to the propagation direction-is shown to be strongly weighted to the high-field region of the plasma. An interaction between the Faraday rotation and Cotton-Mouton effects is also clearly identified. Elliptization occurs when the wave polarization direction is neither parallel nor perpendicular to the local transverse magnetic field. Since Faraday rotation modifies the polarization direction during propagation,more » it must also affect the resultant elliptization. The Cotton-Mouton effect also intrinsically results in rotation of the polarization direction, but this effect is less significant in the plasma conditions modeled. The interaction increases at longer wavelength and complicates interpretation of polarimetry measurements.« less

A diffusion modelling approach to understanding contextual cueing effects in children with ADHD

PubMed Central

Weigard, Alexander; Huang-Pollock, Cynthia

2014-01-01

Background Strong theoretical models suggest implicit learning deficits may exist among children with Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD). Method We examine implicit contextual cueing (CC) effects among children with ADHD (n=72) and non-ADHD Controls (n=36). Results Using Ratcliff’s drift diffusion model, we found that among Controls, the CC effect is due to improvements in attentional guidance and to reductions in response threshold. Children with ADHD did not show a CC effect; although they were able to use implicitly acquired information to deploy attentional focus, they had more difficulty adjusting their response thresholds. Conclusions Improvements in attentional guidance and reductions in response threshold together underlie the CC effect. Results are consistent with neurocognitive models of ADHD that posit sub-cortical dysfunction but intact spatial attention, and encourage the use of alternative data analytic methods when dealing with reaction time data. PMID:24798140

Standard model effective field theory: Integrating out neutralinos and charginos in the MSSM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, Huayong; Huo, Ran; Jiang, Minyuan; Shu, Jing

2018-05-01

We apply the covariant derivative expansion method to integrate out the neutralinos and charginos in the minimal supersymmetric Standard Model. The results are presented as set of pure bosonic dimension-six operators in the Standard Model effective field theory. Nontrivial chirality dependence in fermionic covariant derivative expansion is discussed carefully. The results are checked by computing the h γ γ effective coupling and the electroweak oblique parameters using the Standard Model effective field theory with our effective operators and direct loop calculation. In global fitting, the proposed lepton collider constraint projections, special phenomenological emphasis is paid to the gaugino mass unification scenario (M2≃2 M1) and anomaly mediation scenario (M1≃3.3 M2). These results show that the precision measurement experiments in future lepton colliders will provide a very useful complementary job in probing the electroweakino sector, in particular, filling the gap of the soft lepton plus the missing ET channel search left by the traditional collider, where the neutralino as the lightest supersymmetric particle is very degenerated with the next-to-lightest chargino/neutralino.

Study of helicopterroll control effectiveness criteria

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Heffley, Robert K.; Bourne, Simon M.; Curtiss, Howard C., Jr.; Hindson, William S.; Hess, Ronald A.

1986-01-01

A study of helicopter roll control effectiveness based on closed-loop task performance measurement and modeling is presented. Roll control critieria are based on task margin, the excess of vehicle task performance capability over the pilot's task performance demand. Appropriate helicopter roll axis dynamic models are defined for use with analytic models for task performance. Both near-earth and up-and-away large-amplitude maneuvering phases are considered. The results of in-flight and moving-base simulation measurements are presented to support the roll control effectiveness criteria offered. This Volume contains the theoretical analysis, simulation results and criteria development.

Comparative assessment of turbulence model in predicting airflow over a NACA 0010 airfoil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Panday, Shoyon; Khan, Nafiz Ahmed; Rasel, Md; Faisal, Kh. Md.; Salam, Md. Abdus

2017-06-01

Nowadays the role of computational fluid dynamics to predict the flow behavior over airfoil is quite prominent. Most often a 2-D subsonic flow simulation is carried out over an airfoil at a certain Reynolds number and various angles of attack obtained by different turbulence models those are based on governing equations. The commonly used turbulence models are K-ɛpsilon, K-omega, Spalart Allmaras etc. Variation in turbulence model effectively influences the result of analysis. Here a comparative study is represented to show the effect of different turbulence models for a 2-D flow analysis over a National Advisory Committee for Aeronautics (NACA) airfoil 0010. This airfoil was analysed at 200000 Re number in 10 different angle of attacks at a constant speed of 21.6 m/s. Numbers of two dimensional flow simulation was run by changing the turbulence model, for each AOA. In accordance with the variation of result for different turbulence model, it was also found that for which model, attained result is close enough to experimental outcome from a low subsonic wind tunnel AF100. This paper also documents the effect of high and low angle of attack on the flow behaviour over an airfoil.

A Parameter Subset Selection Algorithm for Mixed-Effects Models

DOE PAGES

Schmidt, Kathleen L.; Smith, Ralph C.

2016-01-01

Mixed-effects models are commonly used to statistically model phenomena that include attributes associated with a population or general underlying mechanism as well as effects specific to individuals or components of the general mechanism. This can include individual effects associated with data from multiple experiments. However, the parameterizations used to incorporate the population and individual effects are often unidentifiable in the sense that parameters are not uniquely specified by the data. As a result, the current literature focuses on model selection, by which insensitive parameters are fixed or removed from the model. Model selection methods that employ information criteria are applicablemore » to both linear and nonlinear mixed-effects models, but such techniques are limited in that they are computationally prohibitive for large problems due to the number of possible models that must be tested. To limit the scope of possible models for model selection via information criteria, we introduce a parameter subset selection (PSS) algorithm for mixed-effects models, which orders the parameters by their significance. In conclusion, we provide examples to verify the effectiveness of the PSS algorithm and to test the performance of mixed-effects model selection that makes use of parameter subset selection.« less

Personality, relationship conflict, and teamwork-related mental models.

PubMed

Vîrgă, Delia; Curşeu, Petru Lucian; CurŞeu, Petru Lucian; Maricuţoiu, Laurenţiu; Sava, Florin A; Macsinga, Irina; Măgurean, Silvia

2014-01-01

This study seeks to explore whether neuroticism, agreeableness, and conscientiousness moderate the influence of relationship conflict experienced in groups on changes in group members' evaluative cognitions related to teamwork quality (teamwork-related mental models). Data from 216 students, nested in 48 groups were analyzed using a multilevel modeling approach. Our results show that the experience of relationship conflict leads to a negative shift from the pre-task to the post-task teamwork-related mental models. Moreover, the results indicate that conscientiousness buffered the negative association between relationship conflict and the change in teamwork-related mental models. Our results did not support the hypothesized moderating effect of agreeableness and show that the detrimental effect of relationship conflict on the shift in teamwork-related mental models is accentuated for group members scoring low rather than high on neuroticism. These findings open new research venues for exploring the association between personality, coping styles and change in teamwork-related mental models.

Evaluation of the feasibility of scale modeling to quantify wind and terrain effects on low-angle sound propagation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Anderson, G. S.; Hayden, R. E.; Thompson, A. R.; Madden, R.

1985-01-01

The feasibility of acoustical scale modeling techniques for modeling wind effects on long range, low frequency outdoor sound propagation was evaluated. Upwind and downwind propagation was studied in 1/100 scale for flat ground and simple hills with both rigid and finite ground impedance over a full scale frequency range from 20 to 500 Hz. Results are presented as 1/3-octave frequency spectra of differences in propagation loss between the case studied and a free-field condition. Selected sets of these results were compared with validated analytical models for propagation loss, when such models were available. When they were not, results were compared with predictions from approximate models developed. Comparisons were encouraging in many cases considering the approximations involved in both the physical modeling and analysis methods. Of particular importance was the favorable comparison between theory and experiment for propagation over soft ground.

Personality, Relationship Conflict, and Teamwork-Related Mental Models

PubMed Central

Vîrgă, Delia; CurŞeu, Petru Lucian; Maricuţoiu, Laurenţiu; Sava, Florin A.; Macsinga, Irina; Măgurean, Silvia

2014-01-01

This study seeks to explore whether neuroticism, agreeableness, and conscientiousness moderate the influence of relationship conflict experienced in groups on changes in group members' evaluative cognitions related to teamwork quality (teamwork-related mental models). Data from 216 students, nested in 48 groups were analyzed using a multilevel modeling approach. Our results show that the experience of relationship conflict leads to a negative shift from the pre-task to the post-task teamwork-related mental models. Moreover, the results indicate that conscientiousness buffered the negative association between relationship conflict and the change in teamwork-related mental models. Our results did not support the hypothesized moderating effect of agreeableness and show that the detrimental effect of relationship conflict on the shift in teamwork-related mental models is accentuated for group members scoring low rather than high on neuroticism. These findings open new research venues for exploring the association between personality, coping styles and change in teamwork-related mental models. PMID:25372143

SU-E-T-378: Evaluation of An Analytical Model for the Inter-Seed Attenuation Effect in 103-Pd Multi-Seed Implant Brachytherapy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Safigholi, H; Soliman, A; Song, W

Purpose: Brachytherapy treatment planning systems based on TG-43 protocol calculate the dose in water and neglects the heterogeneity effect of seeds in multi-seed implant brachytherapy. In this research, the accuracy of a novel analytical model that we propose for the inter-seed attenuation effect (ISA) for 103-Pd seed model is evaluated. Methods: In the analytical model, dose perturbation due to the ISA effect for each seed in an LDR multi-seed implant for 103-Pd is calculated by assuming that the seed of interest is active and the other surrounding seeds are inactive. The cumulative dosimetric effect of all seeds is then summedmore » using the superposition principle. The model is based on pre Monte Carlo (MC) simulated 3D kernels of the dose perturbations caused by the ISA effect. The cumulative ISA effect due to multiple surrounding seeds is obtained by a simple multiplication of the individual ISA effect by each seed, the effect of which is determined by the distance from the seed of interest. This novel algorithm is then compared with full MC water-based simulations (FMCW). Results: The results show that the dose perturbation model we propose is in excellent agreement with the FMCW values for a case with three seeds separated by 1 cm. The average difference of the model and the FMCW simulations was less than 8%±2%. Conclusion: Using the proposed novel analytical ISA effect model, one could expedite the corrections due to the ISA dose perturbation effects during permanent seed 103-Pd brachytherapy planning with minimal increase in time since the model is based on multiplications and superposition. This model can be applied, in principle, to any other brachytherapy seeds. Further work is necessary to validate this model on a more complicated geometry as well.« less

Macro-level pedestrian and bicycle crash analysis: Incorporating spatial spillover effects in dual state count models.

PubMed

Cai, Qing; Lee, Jaeyoung; Eluru, Naveen; Abdel-Aty, Mohamed

2016-08-01

This study attempts to explore the viability of dual-state models (i.e., zero-inflated and hurdle models) for traffic analysis zones (TAZs) based pedestrian and bicycle crash frequency analysis. Additionally, spatial spillover effects are explored in the models by employing exogenous variables from neighboring zones. The dual-state models such as zero-inflated negative binomial and hurdle negative binomial models (with and without spatial effects) are compared with the conventional single-state model (i.e., negative binomial). The model comparison for pedestrian and bicycle crashes revealed that the models that considered observed spatial effects perform better than the models that did not consider the observed spatial effects. Across the models with spatial spillover effects, the dual-state models especially zero-inflated negative binomial model offered better performance compared to single-state models. Moreover, the model results clearly highlighted the importance of various traffic, roadway, and sociodemographic characteristics of the TAZ as well as neighboring TAZs on pedestrian and bicycle crash frequency. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effects of spatial extent on modeled relations between habitat and anadromous salmonid spawning success

Treesearch

Steven F. Railsback; Bret C. Harvey; Jason L. White

2015-01-01

We address the question of spatial extent: how model results depend on the amount and type of space represented. For models of how stream habitat affects fish populations, how do the amount and characteristics of habitat represented in the model affect its results and how well do those results represent the whole stream? Our analysis used inSalmo, an individual-based...

Effects of low-level chronic irradiation on the radiosensitivity of mammals: Modeling studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smirnova, O. A.

Mathematical models of the major hematopoietic lines are used to study the modifying effects of low-level chronic preirradiation on radiosensitivity of mammals which resulted in their reduced radiosensitivity (acquired radioresistance) and elevated radiosensitivity (hypersensitivity) to the subsequent radiation exposure. These effects of preirradiation manifest themselves, respectively, in decreased and increased mortality of preirradiated experimental animals (mice) after challenge acute exposure in comparison with that for previously nonirradiated ones. Analysis of the modeling results reveals the biological mechanisms of these radioprotection and radiosensitization effects, and enables one to estimate the ranges of dose rate and duration of chronic preirradiation where these effects are realized. Juxtapositions of the modeling predictions with the relevant experimental data show their qualitative agreement. All this testifies to the importance of accounting the nonlinear effect of low-level chronic irradiation on radiosensitivity of the hematopoiesis system and organism as a whole, when the radiation risk for astronauts on long-term space missions is estimated. The developed models of hematopoiesis can be used, after appropriate identification, as a component of the mathematical tools for radiation risk assessment.

Determination of effective electromagnetic parameters of concentrated suspensions of ellipsoidal particles using Generalized Differential Effective Medium approximation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Markov, M.; Levin, V.; Markova, I.

2018-02-01

The paper presents an approach to determine the effective electromagnetic parameters of suspensions of ellipsoidal dielectric particles with surface conductivity. This approach takes into account the existence of critical porosity that corresponds to the maximum packing volume fraction of solid inclusions. The approach is based on the Generalized Differential Effective Medium (GDEM) method. We have introduced a model of suspensions containing ellipsoidal inclusions of two types. Inclusions of the first type (phase 1) represent solid grains, and inclusions of the second type (phase 2) contain material with the same physical properties as the host (phase 0). In this model, with increasing porosity the concentration of the host decreases, and it tends to zero near the critical porosity. The proposed model has been used to simulate the effective electromagnetic parameters of concentrated suspensions. We have compared the modeling results for electrical conductivity and dielectric permittivity with the empirical equations. The results obtained have shown that the GDEM model describes the effective electrical conductivity and dielectric permittivity of suspensions in a wide range of inclusion concentrations.

Analysis of injury severity of drivers involved in single- and two-vehicle crashes on highways in Ontario.

PubMed

Lee, Chris; Li, Xuancheng

2014-10-01

This study analyzes driver's injury severity in single- and two-vehicle crashes and compares the effects of explanatory variables among various types of crashes. The study identified factors affecting injury severity and their effects on severity levels using 5-year crash records for provincial highways in Ontario, Canada. Considering heteroscedasticity in the effects of explanatory variables on injury severity, the heteroscedastic ordered logit (HOL) models were developed for single- and two-vehicle crashes separately. The results of the models show that there exists heteroscedasticity for young drivers (≤30), safety equipment and ejection in the single-vehicle crash model, and female drivers, safety equipment and head-on collision in the two-vehicle crash models. The results also show that young car drivers have opposite effects between single-car and car-car crashes, and sideswipe crashes have opposite effects between car-car and truck-truck crashes. The study demonstrates that separate HOL models for single-vehicle and different types of two-vehicle crashes can identify differential effects of factors on driver's injury severity. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Probabilistic Asteroid Impact Risk Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mathias, Donovan L.; Wheeler, Lorien F.; Dotson, Jessie L.

2016-01-01

Asteroid threat assessment requires the quantification of both the impact likelihood and resulting consequence across the range of possible events. This paper presents a probabilistic asteroid impact risk (PAIR) assessment model developed for this purpose. The model incorporates published impact frequency rates with state-of-the-art consequence assessment tools, applied within a Monte Carlo framework that generates sets of impact scenarios from uncertain parameter distributions. Explicit treatment of atmospheric entry is included to produce energy deposition rates that account for the effects of thermal ablation and object fragmentation. These energy deposition rates are used to model the resulting ground damage, and affected populations are computed for the sampled impact locations. The results for each scenario are aggregated into a distribution of potential outcomes that reflect the range of uncertain impact parameters, population densities, and strike probabilities. As an illustration of the utility of the PAIR model, the results are used to address the question of what minimum size asteroid constitutes a threat to the population. To answer this question, complete distributions of results are combined with a hypothetical risk tolerance posture to provide the minimum size, given sets of initial assumptions. Model outputs demonstrate how such questions can be answered and provide a means for interpreting the effect that input assumptions and uncertainty can have on final risk-based decisions. Model results can be used to prioritize investments to gain knowledge in critical areas or, conversely, to identify areas where additional data has little effect on the metrics of interest.

Off-design performance loss model for radial turbines with pivoting, variable-area stators

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Meitner, P. L.; Glassman, A. J.

1980-01-01

An off-design performance loss model was developed for variable stator (pivoted vane), radial turbines through analytical modeling and experimental data analysis. Stator loss is determined by a viscous loss model; stator vane end-clearance leakage effects are determined by a clearance flow model. Rotor loss coefficient were obtained by analyzing the experimental data from a turbine rotor previously tested with six stators having throat areas from 20 to 144 percent of design area and were correlated with stator-to-rotor throat area ratio. An incidence loss model was selected to obtain best agreement with experimental results. Predicted turbine performance is compared with experimental results for the design rotor as well as with results for extended and cutback versions of the rotor. Sample calculations were made to show the effects of stator vane end-clearance leakage.

Experimental Characterization and Micromechanical Modeling of Woven Carbon/Copper Composites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bednarcyk, Brett A.; Pauly, Christopher C.; Pindera, Marek-Jerzy

1997-01-01

The results of an extensive experimental characterization and a preliminary analytical modeling effort for the elastoplastic mechanical behavior of 8-harness satin weave carbon/copper (C/Cu) composites are presented. Previous experimental and modeling investigations of woven composites are discussed, as is the evolution of, and motivation for, the continuing research on C/Cu composites. Experimental results of monotonic and cyclic tension, compression, and Iosipescu shear tests, and combined tension-compression tests, are presented. With regard to the test results, emphasis is placed on the effect of strain gauge size and placement, the effect of alloying the copper matrix to improve fiber-matrix bonding, yield surface characterization, and failure mechanisms. The analytical methodology used in this investigation consists of an extension of the three-dimensional generalized method of cells (GMC-3D) micromechanics model, developed by Aboudi (1994), to include inhomogeneity and plasticity effects on the subcell level. The extension of the model allows prediction of the elastoplastic mechanical response of woven composites, as represented by a true repeating unit cell for the woven composite. The model is used to examine the effects of refining the representative geometry of the composite, altering the composite overall fiber volume fraction, changing the size and placement of the strain gauge with respect to the composite's reinforcement weave, and including porosity within the infiltrated fiber yarns on the in-plane elastoplastic tensile, compressive, and shear response of 8-harness satin C/Cu. The model predictions are also compared with the appropriate monotonic experimental results.

Time-varying coefficient vector autoregressions model based on dynamic correlation with an application to crude oil and stock markets

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lu, Fengbin, E-mail: fblu@amss.ac.cn

This paper proposes a new time-varying coefficient vector autoregressions (VAR) model, in which the coefficient is a linear function of dynamic lagged correlation. The proposed model allows for flexibility in choices of dynamic correlation models (e.g. dynamic conditional correlation generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models, Markov-switching GARCH models and multivariate stochastic volatility models), which indicates that it can describe many types of time-varying causal effects. Time-varying causal relations between West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil and the US Standard and Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) stock markets are examined by the proposed model. The empirical results show that their causal relationsmore » evolve with time and display complex characters. Both positive and negative causal effects of the WTI on the S&P 500 in the subperiods have been found and confirmed by the traditional VAR models. Similar results have been obtained in the causal effects of S&P 500 on WTI. In addition, the proposed model outperforms the traditional VAR model.« less

Time-varying coefficient vector autoregressions model based on dynamic correlation with an application to crude oil and stock markets.

PubMed

Lu, Fengbin; Qiao, Han; Wang, Shouyang; Lai, Kin Keung; Li, Yuze

2017-01-01

This paper proposes a new time-varying coefficient vector autoregressions (VAR) model, in which the coefficient is a linear function of dynamic lagged correlation. The proposed model allows for flexibility in choices of dynamic correlation models (e.g. dynamic conditional correlation generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models, Markov-switching GARCH models and multivariate stochastic volatility models), which indicates that it can describe many types of time-varying causal effects. Time-varying causal relations between West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil and the US Standard and Poor's 500 (S&P 500) stock markets are examined by the proposed model. The empirical results show that their causal relations evolve with time and display complex characters. Both positive and negative causal effects of the WTI on the S&P 500 in the subperiods have been found and confirmed by the traditional VAR models. Similar results have been obtained in the causal effects of S&P 500 on WTI. In addition, the proposed model outperforms the traditional VAR model. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Coupling of electromagnetic and structural dynamics for a wind turbine generator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matzke, D.; Rick, S.; Hollas, S.; Schelenz, R.; Jacobs, G.; Hameyer, K.

2016-09-01

This contribution presents a model interface of a wind turbine generator to represent the reciprocal effects between the mechanical and the electromagnetic system. Therefore, a multi-body-simulation (MBS) model in Simpack is set up and coupled with a quasi-static electromagnetic (EM) model of the generator in Matlab/Simulink via co-simulation. Due to lack of data regarding the structural properties of the generator the modal properties of the MBS model are fitted with respect to results of an experimental modal analysis (EMA) on the reference generator. The used method and the results of this approach are presented in this paper. The MB S model and the interface are set up in such a way that the EM forces can be applied to the structure and the response of the structure can be fed back to the EM model. The results of this cosimulation clearly show an influence of the feedback of the mechanical response which is mainly damping in the torsional degree of freedom and effects due to eccentricity in radial direction. The accuracy of these results will be validated via test bench measurements and presented in future work. Furthermore it is suggested that the EM model should be adjusted in future works so that transient effects are represented.

Damage evolution of bi-body model composed of weakly cemented soft rock and coal considering different interface effect.

PubMed

Zhao, Zenghui; Lv, Xianzhou; Wang, Weiming; Tan, Yunliang

2016-01-01

Considering the structure effect of tunnel stability in western mining of China, three typical kinds of numerical model were respectively built as follows based on the strain softening constitutive model and linear elastic-perfectly plastic model for soft rock and interface: R-M, R-C(s)-M and R-C(w)-M. Calculation results revealed that the stress-strain relation and failure characteristics of the three models vary between each other. The combination model without interface or with a strong interface presented continuous failure, while weak interface exhibited 'cut off' effect. Thus, conceptual models of bi-material model and bi-body model were established. Then numerical experiments of tri-axial compression were carried out for the two models. The relationships between stress evolution, failure zone and deformation rate fluctuations as well as the displacement of interface were detailed analyzed. Results show that two breakaway points of deformation rate actually demonstrate the starting and penetration of the main rupture, respectively. It is distinguishable due to the large fluctuation. The bi-material model shows general continuous failure while bi-body model shows 'V' type shear zone in weak body and failure in strong body near the interface due to the interface effect. With the increasing of confining pressure, the 'cut off' effect of weak interface is not obvious. These conclusions lay the theoretical foundation for further development of constitutive model for soft rock-coal combination body.

Economic impacts of climate change on agriculture: the AgMIP approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Delincé, Jacques; Ciaian, Pavel; Witzke, Heinz-Peter

2015-01-01

The current paper investigates the long-term global impacts on crop productivity under different climate scenarios using the AgMIP approach (Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project). The paper provides horizontal model intercomparison from 11 economic models as well as a more detailed analysis of the simulated effects from the Common Agricultural Policy Regionalized Impact (CAPRI) model to systematically compare its performance with other AgMIP models and specifically for the Chinese agriculture. CAPRI is a comparative static partial equilibrium model extensively used for medium and long-term economic and environmental policy impact applications. The results indicate that, at the global level, the climate change will cause an agricultural productivity decrease (between -2% and -15% by 2050), a food price increase (between 1.3% and 56%) and an expansion of cultivated area (between 1% and 4%) by 2050. The results for China indicate that the climate change effects tend to be smaller than the global impacts. The CAPRI-simulated effects are, in general, close to the median across all AgMIP models. Model intercomparison analyses reveal consistency in terms of direction of change to climate change but relatively strong heterogeneity in the magnitude of the effects between models.

Innovative Liner Concepts: Experiments and Impedance Modeling of Liners Including the Effect of Bias Flow

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kelly, Jeff; Betts, Juan Fernando; Fuller, Chris

2000-01-01

The study of normal impedance of perforated plate acoustic liners including the effect of bias flow was studied. Two impedance models were developed by modeling the internal flows of perforate orifices as infinite tubes with the inclusion of end corrections to handle finite length effects. These models assumed incompressible and compressible flows, respectively, between the far field and the perforate orifice. The incompressible model was used to predict impedance results for perforated plates with percent open areas ranging from 5% to 15%. The predicted resistance results showed better agreement with experiments for the higher percent open area samples. The agreement also tended to deteriorate as bias flow was increased. For perforated plates with percent open areas ranging from 1% to 5%, the compressible model was used to predict impedance results. The model predictions were closer to the experimental resistance results for the 2% to 3% open area samples. The predictions tended to deteriorate as bias flow was increased. The reactance results were well predicted by the models for the higher percent open area, but deteriorated as the percent open area was lowered (5%) and bias flow was increased. A fit was done on the incompressible model to the experimental database. The fit was performed using an optimization routine that found the optimal set of multiplication coefficients to the non-dimensional groups that minimized the least squares slope error between predictions and experiments. The result of the fit indicated that terms not associated with bias flow required a greater degree of correction than the terms associated with the bias flow. This model improved agreement with experiments by nearly 15% for the low percent open area (5%) samples when compared to the unfitted model. The fitted model and the unfitted model performed equally well for the higher percent open area (10% and 15%).

Finite element modeling of contaminant transport in soils including the effect of chemical reactions.

PubMed

Javadi, A A; Al-Najjar, M M

2007-05-17

The movement of chemicals through soils to the groundwater is a major cause of degradation of water resources. In many cases, serious human and stock health implications are associated with this form of pollution. Recent studies have shown that the current models and methods are not able to adequately describe the leaching of nutrients through soils, often underestimating the risk of groundwater contamination by surface-applied chemicals, and overestimating the concentration of resident solutes. Furthermore, the effect of chemical reactions on the fate and transport of contaminants is not included in many of the existing numerical models for contaminant transport. In this paper a numerical model is presented for simulation of the flow of water and air and contaminant transport through unsaturated soils with the main focus being on the effects of chemical reactions. The governing equations of miscible contaminant transport including advection, dispersion-diffusion and adsorption effects together with the effect of chemical reactions are presented. The mathematical framework and the numerical implementation of the model are described in detail. The model is validated by application to a number of test cases from the literature and is then applied to the simulation of a physical model test involving transport of contaminants in a block of soil with particular reference to the effects of chemical reactions. Comparison of the results of the numerical model with the experimental results shows that the model is capable of predicting the effects of chemical reactions with very high accuracy. The importance of consideration of the effects of chemical reactions is highlighted.

The effect of row structure on soil moisture retrieval accuracy from passive microwave data.

PubMed

Xingming, Zheng; Kai, Zhao; Yangyang, Li; Jianhua, Ren; Yanling, Ding

2014-01-01

Row structure causes the anisotropy of microwave brightness temperature (TB) of soil surface, and it also can affect soil moisture retrieval accuracy when its influence is ignored in the inversion model. To study the effect of typical row structure on the retrieved soil moisture and evaluate if there is a need to introduce this effect into the inversion model, two ground-based experiments were carried out in 2011. Based on the observed C-band TB, field soil and vegetation parameters, row structure rough surface assumption (Q p model and discrete model), including the effect of row structure, and flat rough surface assumption (Q p model), ignoring the effect of row structure, are used to model microwave TB of soil surface. Then, soil moisture can be retrieved, respectively, by minimizing the difference of the measured and modeled TB. The results show that soil moisture retrieval accuracy based on the row structure rough surface assumption is approximately 0.02 cm(3)/cm(3) better than the flat rough surface assumption for vegetated soil, as well as 0.015 cm(3)/cm(3) better for bare and wet soil. This result indicates that the effect of row structure cannot be ignored for accurately retrieving soil moisture of farmland surface when C-band is used.

Effective mass of elementary excitations in Galilean-invariant integrable models

DOE PAGES

Matveev, K. A.; Pustilnik, M.

2016-09-27

Here, we study low-energy excitations of one-dimensional Galilean-invariant models integrable by Bethe ansatz and characterized by nonsingular two-particle scattering phase shifts. We also prove that the curvature of the excitation spectra is described by the recently proposed phenomenological expression for the effective mass. These results apply to such models as the repulsive Lieb-Liniger model and the hyperbolic Calogero-Sutherland model.

[Variable selection methods combined with local linear embedding theory used for optimization of near infrared spectral quantitative models].

PubMed

Hao, Yong; Sun, Xu-Dong; Yang, Qiang

2012-12-01

Variables selection strategy combined with local linear embedding (LLE) was introduced for the analysis of complex samples by using near infrared spectroscopy (NIRS). Three methods include Monte Carlo uninformation variable elimination (MCUVE), successive projections algorithm (SPA) and MCUVE connected with SPA were used for eliminating redundancy spectral variables. Partial least squares regression (PLSR) and LLE-PLSR were used for modeling complex samples. The results shown that MCUVE can both extract effective informative variables and improve the precision of models. Compared with PLSR models, LLE-PLSR models can achieve more accurate analysis results. MCUVE combined with LLE-PLSR is an effective modeling method for NIRS quantitative analysis.

Assessing the uncertainty of soil moisture impacts on convective precipitation using a new ensemble approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Henneberg, Olga; Ament, Felix; Grützun, Verena

2018-05-01

Soil moisture amount and distribution control evapotranspiration and thus impact the occurrence of convective precipitation. Many recent model studies demonstrate that changes in initial soil moisture content result in modified convective precipitation. However, to quantify the resulting precipitation changes, the chaotic behavior of the atmospheric system needs to be considered. Slight changes in the simulation setup, such as the chosen model domain, also result in modifications to the simulated precipitation field. This causes an uncertainty due to stochastic variability, which can be large compared to effects caused by soil moisture variations. By shifting the model domain, we estimate the uncertainty of the model results. Our novel uncertainty estimate includes 10 simulations with shifted model boundaries and is compared to the effects on precipitation caused by variations in soil moisture amount and local distribution. With this approach, the influence of soil moisture amount and distribution on convective precipitation is quantified. Deviations in simulated precipitation can only be attributed to soil moisture impacts if the systematic effects of soil moisture modifications are larger than the inherent simulation uncertainty at the convection-resolving scale. We performed seven experiments with modified soil moisture amount or distribution to address the effect of soil moisture on precipitation. Each of the experiments consists of 10 ensemble members using the deep convection-resolving COSMO model with a grid spacing of 2.8 km. Only in experiments with very strong modification in soil moisture do precipitation changes exceed the model spread in amplitude, location or structure. These changes are caused by a 50 % soil moisture increase in either the whole or part of the model domain or by drying the whole model domain. Increasing or decreasing soil moisture both predominantly results in reduced precipitation rates. Replacing the soil moisture with realistic fields from different days has an insignificant influence on precipitation. The findings of this study underline the need for uncertainty estimates in soil moisture studies based on convection-resolving models.

STRUCTURAL ESTIMATES OF TREATMENT EFFECTS ON OUTCOMES USING RETROSPECTIVE DATA: AN APPLICATION TO DUCTAL CARCINOMA IN SITU

PubMed Central

Gold, Heather Taffet; Sorbero, Melony E. S.; Griggs, Jennifer J.; Do, Huong T.; Dick, Andrew W.

2013-01-01

Analysis of observational cohort data is subject to bias from unobservable risk selection. We compared econometric models and treatment effectiveness estimates using the linked Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER)-Medicare claims data for women diagnosed with ductal carcinoma in situ. Treatment effectiveness estimates for mastectomy and breast conserving surgery (BCS) with or without radiotherapy were compared using three different models: simultaneous-equations model, discrete-time survival model with unobserved heterogeneity (frailty), and proportional hazards model. Overall trends in disease-free survival (DFS), or time to first subsequent breast event, by treatment are similar regardless of the model, with mastectomy yielding the highest DFS over 8 years of follow-up, followed by BCS with radiotherapy, and then BCS alone. Absolute rates and direction of bias varied substantially by treatment strategy. DFS was underestimated by single-equation and frailty models compared to the simultaneous-equations model and RCT results for BCS with RT and overestimated for BCS alone. PMID:21602195

Physical Models of Layered Polar Firn Brightness Temperatures from 0.5 to 2 GHz

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tan, Shurun; Aksoy, Mustafa; Brogioni, Marco; Macelloni, Giovanni; Durand, Michael; Jezek, Kenneth C.; Wang, Tian-Lin; Tsang, Leung; Johnson, Joel T.; Drinkwater, Mark R.;

Application of Poisson random effect models for highway network screening.

PubMed

Jiang, Ximiao; Abdel-Aty, Mohamed; Alamili, Samer

2014-02-01

In recent years, Bayesian random effect models that account for the temporal and spatial correlations of crash data became popular in traffic safety research. This study employs random effect Poisson Log-Normal models for crash risk hotspot identification. Both the temporal and spatial correlations of crash data were considered. Potential for Safety Improvement (PSI) were adopted as a measure of the crash risk. Using the fatal and injury crashes that occurred on urban 4-lane divided arterials from 2006 to 2009 in the Central Florida area, the random effect approaches were compared to the traditional Empirical Bayesian (EB) method and the conventional Bayesian Poisson Log-Normal model. A series of method examination tests were conducted to evaluate the performance of different approaches. These tests include the previously developed site consistence test, method consistence test, total rank difference test, and the modified total score test, as well as the newly proposed total safety performance measure difference test. Results show that the Bayesian Poisson model accounting for both temporal and spatial random effects (PTSRE) outperforms the model that with only temporal random effect, and both are superior to the conventional Poisson Log-Normal model (PLN) and the EB model in the fitting of crash data. Additionally, the method evaluation tests indicate that the PTSRE model is significantly superior to the PLN model and the EB model in consistently identifying hotspots during successive time periods. The results suggest that the PTSRE model is a superior alternative for road site crash risk hotspot identification. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Mechanistic modelling of the inhibitory effect of pH on microbial growth.

PubMed

Akkermans, Simen; Van Impe, Jan F

2018-06-01

Modelling and simulation of microbial dynamics as a function of processing, transportation and storage conditions is a useful tool to improve microbial food safety and quality. The goal of this research is to improve an existing methodology for building mechanistic predictive models based on the environmental conditions. The effect of environmental conditions on microbial dynamics is often described by combining the separate effects in a multiplicative way (gamma concept). This idea was extended further in this work by including the effects of the lag and stationary growth phases on microbial growth rate as independent gamma factors. A mechanistic description of the stationary phase as a function of pH was included, based on a novel class of models that consider product inhibition. Experimental results on Escherichia coli growth dynamics indicated that also the parameters of the product inhibition equations can be modelled with the gamma approach. This work has extended a modelling methodology, resulting in predictive models that are (i) mechanistically inspired, (ii) easily identifiable with a limited work load and (iii) easily extended to additional environmental conditions. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

A deformation-formulated micromechanics model of the effective Young's modulus and strength of laminated composites containing local ply curvature

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, Jong-Won; Harris, Charles E.

1990-01-01

A mathematical model based on the Euler-Bermoulli beam theory is proposed for predicting the effective Young's moduli of piecewise isotropic composite laminates with local ply curvatures in the main load-carrying layers. Strains in corrugated layers, in-phase layers, and out-of-phase layers are predicted for various geometries and material configurations by assuming matrix layers as elastic foundations of different spring constants. The effective Young's moduli measured from corrugated aluminum specimens and aluminum/epoxy specimens with in-phase and out-of-phase wavy patterns coincide very well with the model predictions. Moire fringe analysis of an in-phase specimen and an out-of-phase specimen are also presented, confirming the main assumption of the model related to the elastic constraint due to the matrix layers. The present model is also compared with the experimental results and other models, including the microbuckling models, published in the literature. The results of the present study show that even a very small-scale local ply curvature produces a noticeable effect on the mechanical constitutive behavior of a laminated composite.

FMCSA safety program effectiveness measurement : Intervention Model in fiscal year 2007

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2011-04-01

This report presents results from FMCSAs Roadside Intervention Model for fiscal year 2007. The model estimates the number of crashes avoided, as well as injuries avoided and lives saved, as a result of the Agencys roadside inspection program. T...

Emergent Societal Effects of Crimino-Social Forces in an Animat Agent Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scogings, Chris J.; Hawick, Ken A.

Societal behaviour can be studied at a causal level by perturbing a stable multi-agent model with new microscopic behaviours and observing the statistical response over an ensemble of simulated model systems. We report on the effects of introducing criminal and law-enforcing behaviours into a large scale animat agent model and describe the complex spatial agent patterns and population changes that result. Our well-established predator-prey substrate model provides a background framework against which these new microscopic behaviours can be trialled and investigated. We describe some quantitative results and some surprising conclusions concerning the overall societal health when individually anti-social behaviour is introduced.

Experience with k-epsilon turbulence models for heat transfer computations in rotating

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tekriwal, Prabbat

1995-01-01

This viewgraph presentation discusses geometry and flow configuration, effect of y+ on heat transfer computations, standard and extended k-epsilon turbulence model results with wall function, low-Re model results (the Lam-Bremhorst model without wall function), a criterion for flow reversal in a radially rotating square duct, and a summary.

Propagation effects for land mobile satellite systems: Overview of experimental and modeling results

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goldhirsh, Julius; Vogel, Wolfhard J.

1992-01-01

Models developed and experiments performed to characterize the propagation environment associated with land mobile communication using satellites are discussed. Experiments were carried out with transmitters on stratospheric balloons, remotely piloted aircraft, helicopters, and geostationary satellites. This text is comprised of compiled experimental results for the expressed use of communications engineers, designers of planned Land Mobile Satellite Systems (LMSS), and modelers of propagation effects. The results presented here are mostly derived from systematic studies of propagation effects for LMSS geometries in the United States associated with rural and suburban regions. Where applicable, the authors also draw liberally from the results of other related investigations in Canada, Europe, and Australia. Frequencies near 1500 MHz are emphasized to coincide with frequency bands allocated for LMSS by the International Telecommunication Union, although earlier experimental work at 870 MHz is also included.

The Effect of Learning Based on Technology Model and Assessment Technique toward Thermodynamic Learning Achievement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Makahinda, T.

2018-02-01

The purpose of this research is to find out the effect of learning model based on technology and assessment technique toward thermodynamic achievement by controlling students intelligence. This research is an experimental research. The sample is taken through cluster random sampling with the total respondent of 80 students. The result of the research shows that the result of learning of thermodynamics of students who taught the learning model of environmental utilization is higher than the learning result of student thermodynamics taught by simulation animation, after controlling student intelligence. There is influence of student interaction, and the subject between models of technology-based learning with assessment technique to student learning result of Thermodynamics, after controlling student intelligence. Based on the finding in the lecture then should be used a thermodynamic model of the learning environment with the use of project assessment technique.

Bidirectional enantioselective effects of the GABAB receptor agonist baclofen in two mouse models of excessive ethanol consumption

PubMed Central

Kasten, Chelsea R.; Blasingame, Shelby N.; Boehm, Stephen L.

2014-01-01

The GABAB receptor agonist baclofen has been studied extensively in preclinical models of alcohol use disorders, yet results on its efficacy have been uncertain. Racemic baclofen, which is used clinically, can be broken down into separate enantiomers of the drug. Baclofen has been shown to produce enantioselective effects in behavioral assays including those modeling reflexive and sexual behavior. The current studies sought to characterize the enantioselective effects of baclofen in two separate models of ethanol consumption. The first was a Drinking-in-the-Dark procedure that provides “binge-like” ethanol access to mice by restricting access to a two hour period, three hours into the dark cycle. The second was a two-bottle choice procedure that utilized selectively bred High Alcohol Preferring 1 (HAP1) mice to model chronic ethanol access. HAP1 mice are selectively bred to consume pharmacologically relevant amounts of ethanol in a 24-hour two-bottle choice paradigm. The results showed that baclofen yields enantioselective effects on ethanol intake in both models, and that these effects are bidirectional. Total ethanol intake was decreased by R(+)- baclofen, while total intake was increased by S(-)-baclofen in the binge-like and chronic drinking models. Whereas overall binge-like saccharin intake was significantly reduced by R(+)- baclofen, chronic intake was not significantly altered. S(-)- baclofen did not significantly alter saccharin intake. Neither enantiomer significantly affected locomotion during binge-like reinforcer consumption. Collectively, these results demonstrate that baclofen produces enantioselective effects on ethanol consumption. More importantly, the modulation of consumption is bidirectional. The opposing enantioselective effects may explain some of the variance seen in published baclofen literature. PMID:25557834

Bidirectional enantioselective effects of the GABAB receptor agonist baclofen in two mouse models of excessive ethanol consumption.

PubMed

Kasten, Chelsea R; Blasingame, Shelby N; Boehm, Stephen L

2015-02-01

The GABAB receptor agonist baclofen has been studied extensively in preclinical models of alcohol-use disorders, yet results on its efficacy have been uncertain. Racemic baclofen, which is used clinically, can be broken down into separate enantiomers of the drug. Baclofen has been shown to produce enantioselective effects in behavioral assays, including those modeling reflexive and sexual behavior. The current studies sought to characterize the enantioselective effects of baclofen in two separate models of ethanol consumption. The first was a Drinking-in-the-Dark procedure that provides "binge-like" ethanol access to mice by restricting access to a 2-h period, 3 h into the dark cycle. The second was a two-bottle choice procedure that utilized selectively bred High Alcohol Preferring 1 (HAP1) mice to model chronic ethanol access. HAP1 mice are selectively bred to consume pharmacologically relevant amounts of ethanol in a 24-h two-bottle choice paradigm. The results showed that baclofen yields enantioselective effects on ethanol intake in both models, and that these effects are bidirectional. Total ethanol intake was decreased by R(+)-baclofen, while total intake was increased by S(-)-baclofen in the binge-like and chronic drinking models. Whereas overall binge-like saccharin intake was significantly reduced by R(+)-baclofen, chronic intake was not significantly altered. S(-)-baclofen did not significantly alter saccharin intake. Neither enantiomer significantly affected locomotion during binge-like reinforcer consumption. Collectively, these results demonstrate that baclofen produces enantioselective effects on ethanol consumption. More importantly, the modulation of consumption is bidirectional. The opposing enantioselective effects may explain some of the variance seen in published baclofen literature. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A study of the effects of disk flexibility on the rotordynamics of the space shuttle main engine turbo-pumps

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Flowers, George T.

1989-01-01

Rotor dynamical analyses are typically performed using rigid disk models. Studies of rotor models in which the effects of disk flexibility were included indicate that is may be an important effect for many systems. This issue is addressed with respect to the Space Shuttle Main Engine high pressure turbo-pumps. Finite element analyses have been performed for a simplified free-free flexible disk rotor model and the modes and frequencies compared to those of a rigid disk model. The simple model was then extended to a more sophisticated HPTOP rotor model and similar results were observed. Equations were developed that are suitable for modifying the current rotordynamical analysis program to account for disk flexibility. Some conclusions are drawn from the results of this work as to the importance of disk flexibility on the HPTOP rotordynamics and some recommendations are given for follow-up research in this area.

A simple electric circuit model for proton exchange membrane fuel cells

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lazarou, Stavros; Pyrgioti, Eleftheria; Alexandridis, Antonio T.

A simple and novel dynamic circuit model for a proton exchange membrane (PEM) fuel cell suitable for the analysis and design of power systems is presented. The model takes into account phenomena like activation polarization, ohmic polarization, and mass transport effect present in a PEM fuel cell. The proposed circuit model includes three resistors to approach adequately these phenomena; however, since for the PEM dynamic performance connection or disconnection of an additional load is of crucial importance, the proposed model uses two saturable inductors accompanied by an ideal transformer to simulate the double layer charging effect during load step changes. To evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed model its dynamic performance under load step changes is simulated. Experimental results coming from a commercial PEM fuel cell module that uses hydrogen from a pressurized cylinder at the anode and atmospheric oxygen at the cathode, clearly verify the simulation results.

Application of the three-component bidirectional reflectance distribution function model to Monte Carlo calculation of spectral effective emissivities of nonisothermal blackbody cavities.

PubMed

Prokhorov, Alexander; Prokhorova, Nina I

2012-11-20

We applied the bidirectional reflectance distribution function (BRDF) model consisting of diffuse, quasi-specular, and glossy components to the Monte Carlo modeling of spectral effective emissivities for nonisothermal cavities. A method for extension of a monochromatic three-component (3C) BRDF model to a continuous spectral range is proposed. The initial data for this method are the BRDFs measured in the plane of incidence at a single wavelength and several incidence angles and directional-hemispherical reflectance measured at one incidence angle within a finite spectral range. We proposed the Monte Carlo algorithm for calculation of spectral effective emissivities for nonisothermal cavities whose internal surface is described by the wavelength-dependent 3C BRDF model. The results obtained for a cylindroconical nonisothermal cavity are discussed and compared with results obtained using the conventional specular-diffuse model.

Accounting for groundwater in stream fish thermal habitat responses to climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Snyder, Craig D.; Hitt, Nathaniel P.; Young, John A.

2015-01-01

Forecasting climate change effects on aquatic fauna and their habitat requires an understanding of how water temperature responds to changing air temperature (i.e., thermal sensitivity). Previous efforts to forecast climate effects on brook trout habitat have generally assumed uniform air-water temperature relationships over large areas that cannot account for groundwater inputs and other processes that operate at finer spatial scales. We developed regression models that accounted for groundwater influences on thermal sensitivity from measured air-water temperature relationships within forested watersheds in eastern North America (Shenandoah National Park, USA, 78 sites in 9 watersheds). We used these reach-scale models to forecast climate change effects on stream temperature and brook trout thermal habitat, and compared our results to previous forecasts based upon large-scale models. Observed stream temperatures were generally less sensitive to air temperature than previously assumed, and we attribute this to the moderating effect of shallow groundwater inputs. Predicted groundwater temperatures from air-water regression models corresponded well to observed groundwater temperatures elsewhere in the study area. Predictions of brook trout future habitat loss derived from our fine-grained models were far less pessimistic than those from prior models developed at coarser spatial resolutions. However, our models also revealed spatial variation in thermal sensitivity within and among catchments resulting in a patchy distribution of thermally suitable habitat. Habitat fragmentation due to thermal barriers therefore may have an increasingly important role for trout population viability in headwater streams. Our results demonstrate that simple adjustments to air-water temperature regression models can provide a powerful and cost-effective approach for predicting future stream temperatures while accounting for effects of groundwater.

The Effect of Visual Information on the Manual Approach and Landing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wewerinke, P. H.

1982-01-01

The effect of visual information in combination with basic display information on the approach performance. A pre-experimental model analysis was performed in terms of the optimal control model. The resulting aircraft approach performance predictions were compared with the results of a moving base simulator program. The results illustrate that the model provides a meaningful description of the visual (scene) perception process involved in the complex (multi-variable, time varying) manual approach task with a useful predictive capability. The theoretical framework was shown to allow a straight-forward investigation of the complex interaction of a variety of task variables.

Fun with maths: exploring implications of mathematical models for malaria eradication.

PubMed

Eckhoff, Philip A; Bever, Caitlin A; Gerardin, Jaline; Wenger, Edward A

2014-12-11

Mathematical analyses and modelling have an important role informing malaria eradication strategies. Simple mathematical approaches can answer many questions, but it is important to investigate their assumptions and to test whether simple assumptions affect the results. In this note, four examples demonstrate both the effects of model structures and assumptions and also the benefits of using a diversity of model approaches. These examples include the time to eradication, the impact of vaccine efficacy and coverage, drug programs and the effects of duration of infections and delays to treatment, and the influence of seasonality and migration coupling on disease fadeout. An excessively simple structure can miss key results, but simple mathematical approaches can still achieve key results for eradication strategy and define areas for investigation by more complex models.

Viscoelastic flow modeling in the extrusion of a dough-like fluid

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dhanasekharan, M.; Kokini, J. L.; Janes, H. W. (Principal Investigator)

2000-01-01

This work attempts to investigate the effect of viscoelasticity and three-dimensional geometry in screw channels. The Phan-Thien Tanner (PTT) constitutive equation with simplified model parameters was solved in conjunction with the flow equations. Polyflow, a commercially available finite element code was used to solve the resulting nonlinear partial differential equations. The PTT model predicted one log scale lower pressure buildup compared to the equivalent Newtonian results. However, the velocity profile did not show significant changes for the chosen PTT model parameters. Past Researchers neglected viscoelastic effects and also the three dimensional nature of the flow in extruder channels. The results of this paper provide a starting point for further simulations using more realistic model parameters, which may enable the food engineer to more accurately scale-up and design extrusion processes.

Finite Element Analysis of Magnetic Damping Effects on G-Jitter Induced Fluid Flow

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pan, Bo; Li, Ben Q.; deGroh, Henry C., III

1997-01-01

This paper reports some interim results on numerical modeling and analyses of magnetic damping of g-jitter driven fluid flow in microgravity. A finite element model is developed to represent the fluid flow, thermal and solute transport phenomena in a 2-D cavity under g-jitter conditions with and without an applied magnetic field. The numerical model is checked by comparing with analytical solutions obtained for a simple parallel plate channel flow driven by g-jitter in a transverse magnetic field. The model is then applied to study the effect of steady state g-jitter induced oscillation and on the solute redistribution in the liquid that bears direct relevance to the Bridgman-Stockbarger single crystal growth processes. A selection of computed results is presented and the results indicate that an applied magnetic field can effectively damp the velocity caused by g-jitter and help to reduce the time variation of solute redistribution.

Cost-Effectiveness of HBV and HCV Screening Strategies – A Systematic Review of Existing Modelling Techniques

PubMed Central

Geue, Claudia; Wu, Olivia; Xin, Yiqiao; Heggie, Robert; Hutchinson, Sharon; Martin, Natasha K.; Fenwick, Elisabeth; Goldberg, David

2015-01-01

Introduction Studies evaluating the cost-effectiveness of screening for Hepatitis B Virus (HBV) and Hepatitis C Virus (HCV) are generally heterogeneous in terms of risk groups, settings, screening intervention, outcomes and the economic modelling framework. It is therefore difficult to compare cost-effectiveness results between studies. This systematic review aims to summarise and critically assess existing economic models for HBV and HCV in order to identify the main methodological differences in modelling approaches. Methods A structured search strategy was developed and a systematic review carried out. A critical assessment of the decision-analytic models was carried out according to the guidelines and framework developed for assessment of decision-analytic models in Health Technology Assessment of health care interventions. Results The overall approach to analysing the cost-effectiveness of screening strategies was found to be broadly consistent for HBV and HCV. However, modelling parameters and related structure differed between models, producing different results. More recent publications performed better against a performance matrix, evaluating model components and methodology. Conclusion When assessing screening strategies for HBV and HCV infection, the focus should be on more recent studies, which applied the latest treatment regimes, test methods and had better and more complete data on which to base their models. In addition to parameter selection and associated assumptions, careful consideration of dynamic versus static modelling is recommended. Future research may want to focus on these methodological issues. In addition, the ability to evaluate screening strategies for multiple infectious diseases, (HCV and HIV at the same time) might prove important for decision makers. PMID:26689908

Modeling the effect of terraces on land degradation in tropical upland agricultural area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Christanto, N.; Shrestha, D. P.; Jetten, V. G.; Setiawan, A.

2012-04-01

Java, the most populated Island in Indonesia, in the pas view decades suffer land degradation do to extreme weather, population pressure and landuse/cover change. The study area, Serayu sub-catchment, as part of Serayu catchment is one of the representative example of Indonesia region facing land use change and land degradation problem. The study attempted to simulate the effect of terraces on land degradation (Soil erosion and landslide hazard) in Serayu sub-catchment using deterministic modeling by means of PCRaster® simulation. The effect of the terraces on tropical upland agricultural area is less studied. This paper will discuss about the effect of terraces on land degradation assessment. Detail Dem is extremely difficult to obtain in developing country like Indonesia. Therefore, an artificial DEM which give an impression of the terraces was built. Topographical maps, Ikonos Image and average of height distribution based on field measurement were used to build the artificial DEM. The result is used in STARWARS model as an input. In combine with Erosion model and PROBSTAB, soil erosion and landslide hazard were quantified. The models were run in two different environment based on the: 1) normal DEM 2.) Artificial DEM (with terraces impression). The result is compared. The result shows that the models run in an artificial DEM give a significant increase on the probability of failure by 20.5%. In the other hand, the erosion rate has fall by 11.32% as compared to the normal DEM. The result of hydrological sensitivity analysis shows that soil depth was the most sensitive parameter. For the slope stability modeling, the most sensitive parameter was slope followed by friction angle and cohesion. The erosion modeling, the model was sensitive to the vegetation cover, soil erodibility followed by BD and KSat. Model validations were applied to assess the accuracy of the models. However, the results of dynamic modeling are ideal for land degradation assessment. Dynamic modeling software such as PC Raster® which is open source and free are reliable alternative to other commercial software

The effects of modeling contingencies in the treatment of food selectivity in children with autism.

PubMed

Fu, Sherrene B; Penrod, Becky; Fernand, Jonathan K; Whelan, Colleen M; Griffith, Kristin; Medved, Shannon

2015-11-01

The current study investigated the effectiveness of stating and modeling contingencies in increasing food consumption for two children with food selectivity. Results suggested that stating and modeling a differential reinforcement (DR) contingency for food consumption was effective in increasing consumption of two target foods for one child, and stating and modeling a DR plus nonremoval of the spoon contingency was effective in increasing consumption of the remaining food for the first child and all target foods for the second child. © The Author(s) 2015.

A systematic review of quality and cost-effectiveness derived from Markov models evaluating smoking cessation interventions in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

PubMed

Kirsch, Florian

2015-04-01

Smoking cessation is the only strategy that has shown a lasting reduction in the decline of lung function in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. This study aims to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of smoking cessation interventions in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, to assess the quality of the Markov models and to estimate the consequences of model structure and input data on cost-effectiveness. A systematic literature search was conducted in PubMed, Embase, BusinessSourceComplete and Econlit on June 11, 2014. Data were extracted, and costs were inflated. Model quality was evaluated by a quality appraisal, and results were interpreted. Ten studies met the inclusion criteria. The results varied widely from cost savings to additional costs of €17,004 per quality adjusted life year. The models scored best in the category structure, followed by data and consistency. The quality of the models seems to rise over time, and regarding the results there is no economic reason to refuse the reimbursement of any smoking cessation intervention.

A new macro model of traffic flow by incorporating both timid and aggressive driving behaviors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peng, Guanghan; Qing, Li

2016-10-01

In this paper, a novel macro model is derived from car-following model by applying the relationship between the micro and macro variables by incorporating the timid and aggressive effects of optimal velocity on a single lane. Numerical simulation shows that the timid and aggressive macro model of traffic flow can correctly reproduce common evolution of shock, rarefaction waves and local cluster effects under small perturbation. Also, the results uncover that the aggressive effect can smoothen the front of the shock wave and the timid effect results in local press peak, which means that the timid effect hastens the process of congregation in the shock wave. The more timid traffic behaviors are, the smaller is the stable range. Furthermore, the research shows that the advantage of the aggressive effect over the timid one lies in the fact that the aggressive traffic behaviors can improve the stability of traffic flow with the consideration of incorporating timid and aggressive driving behaviors at the same time.

Cost-effective management alternatives for Snake River Chinook salmon: a biological-economic synthesis.

PubMed

Halsing, David L; Moore, Michael R

2008-04-01

The mandate to increase endangered salmon populations in the Columbia River Basin of North America has created a complex, controversial resource-management issue. We constructed an integrated assessment model as a tool for analyzing biological-economic trade-offs in recovery of Snake River spring- and summer-run chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha). We merged 3 frameworks: a salmon-passage model to predict migration and survival of smolts; an age-structured matrix model to predict long-term population growth rates of salmon stocks; and a cost-effectiveness analysis to determine a set of least-cost management alternatives for achieving particular population growth rates. We assessed 6 individual salmon-management measures and 76 management alternatives composed of one or more measures. To reflect uncertainty, results were derived for different assumptions of effectiveness of smolt transport around dams. Removal of an estuarine predator, the Caspian Tern (Sterna caspia), was cost-effective and generally increased long-term population growth rates regardless of transport effectiveness. Elimination of adult salmon harvest had a similar effect over a range of its cost estimates. The specific management alternatives in the cost-effective set depended on assumptions about transport effectiveness. On the basis of recent estimates of smolt transport effectiveness, alternatives that discontinued transportation or breached dams were prevalent in the cost-effective set, whereas alternatives that maximized transportation dominated if transport effectiveness was relatively high. More generally, the analysis eliminated 80-90% of management alternatives from the cost-effective set. Application of our results to salmon management is limited by data availability and model assumptions, but these limitations can help guide research that addresses critical uncertainties and information. Our results thus demonstrate that linking biology and economics through integrated models can provide valuable tools for science-based policy and management.

Cost-effective management alternatives for Snake river chinook salmon: A biological-economic synthesis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Halsing, D.L.; Moore, M.R.

2008-01-01

The mandate to increase endangered salmon populations in the Columbia River Basin of North America has created a complex, controversial resource-management issue. We constructed an integrated assessment model as a tool for analyzing biological-economic trade-offs in recovery of Snake River spring- and summer-run chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha). We merged 3 frameworks: a salmon-passage model to predict migration and survival of smolts; an age-structured matrix model to predict long-term population growth rates of salmon stocks; and a cost-effectiveness analysis to determine a set of least-cost management alternatives for achieving particular population growth rates. We assessed 6 individual salmon-management measures and 76 management alternatives composed of one or more measures. To reflect uncertainty, results were derived for different assumptions of effectiveness of smolt transport around dams. Removal of an estuarine predator, the Caspian Tern (Sterna caspia), was cost-effective and generally increased long-term population growth rates regardless of transport effectiveness. Elimination of adult salmon harvest had a similar effect over a range of its cost estimates. The specific management alternatives in the cost-effective set depended on assumptions about transport effectiveness. On the basis of recent estimates of smolt transport effectiveness, alternatives that discontinued transportation or breached dams were prevalent in the cost-effective set, whereas alternatives that maximized transportation dominated if transport effectiveness was relatively high. More generally, the analysis eliminated 80-90% of management alternatives from the cost-effective set. Application of our results to salmon management is limited by data availability and model assumptions, but these limitations can help guide research that addresses critical uncertainties and information. Our results thus demonstrate that linking biology and economics through integrated models can provide valuable tools for science-based policy and management.

Efficient Multi-Dimensional Simulation of Quantum Confinement Effects in Advanced MOS Devices

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Biegel, Bryan A.; Rafferty, Conor S.; Ancona, Mario G.; Yu, Zhi-Ping

2000-01-01

We investigate the density-gradient (DG) transport model for efficient multi-dimensional simulation of quantum confinement effects in advanced MOS devices. The formulation of the DG model is described as a quantum correction to the classical drift-diffusion model. Quantum confinement effects are shown to be significant in sub-100nm MOSFETs. In thin-oxide MOS capacitors, quantum effects may reduce gate capacitance by 25% or more. As a result, the inclusion or quantum effects in simulations dramatically improves the match between C-V simulations and measurements for oxide thickness down to 2 nm. Significant quantum corrections also occur in the I-V characteristics of short-channel (30 to 100 nm) n-MOSFETs, with current drive reduced by up to 70%. This effect is shown to result from reduced inversion charge due to quantum confinement of electrons in the channel. Also, subthreshold slope is degraded by 15 to 20 mV/decade with the inclusion of quantum effects via the density-gradient model, and short channel effects (in particular, drain-induced barrier lowering) are noticeably increased.

Modeling of In-stream Tidal Energy Development and its Potential Effects in Tacoma Narrows, Washington, USA

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yang, Zhaoqing; Wang, Taiping; Copping, Andrea E.

Understanding and providing proactive information on the potential for tidal energy projects to cause changes to the physical system and to key water quality constituents in tidal waters is a necessary and cost-effective means to avoid costly regulatory involvement and late stage surprises in the permitting process. This paper presents a modeling study for evaluating the tidal energy extraction and its potential impacts on the marine environment in a real world site - Tacoma Narrows of Puget Sound, Washington State, USA. An unstructured-grid coastal ocean model, fitted with a module that simulates tidal energy devices, was applied to simulate themore » tidal energy extracted by different turbine array configurations and the potential effects of the extraction at local and system-wide scales in Tacoma Narrows and South Puget Sound. Model results demonstrated the advantage of an unstructured-grid model for simulating the far-field effects of tidal energy extraction in a large model domain, as well as assessing the near-field effect using a fine grid resolution near the tidal turbines. The outcome shows that a realistic near-term deployment scenario extracts a very small fraction of the total tidal energy in the system and that system wide environmental effects are not likely; however, near-field effects on the flow field and bed shear stress in the area of tidal turbine farm are more likely. Model results also indicate that from a practical standpoint, hydrodynamic or water quality effects are not likely to be the limiting factor for development of large commercial-scale tidal farms. Results indicate that very high numbers of turbines are required to significantly alter the tidal system; limitations on marine space or other environmental concerns are likely to be reached before reaching these deployment levels. These findings show that important information obtained from numerical modeling can be used to inform regulatory and policy processes for tidal energy development.« less

Modelling the pre-assessment learning effects of assessment: evidence in the validity chain.

PubMed

Cilliers, Francois J; Schuwirth, Lambert W T; van der Vleuten, Cees P M

2012-11-01

We previously developed a model of the pre-assessment learning effects of consequential assessment and started to validate it. The model comprises assessment factors, mechanism factors and learning effects. The purpose of this study was to continue the validation process. For stringency, we focused on a subset of assessment factor-learning effect associations that featured least commonly in a baseline qualitative study. Our aims were to determine whether these uncommon associations were operational in a broader but similar population to that in which the model was initially derived. A cross-sectional survey of 361 senior medical students at one medical school was undertaken using a purpose-made questionnaire based on a grounded theory and comprising pairs of written situational tests. In each pair, the manifestation of an assessment factor was varied. The frequencies at which learning effects were selected were compared for each item pair, using an adjusted alpha to assign significance. The frequencies at which mechanism factors were selected were calculated. There were significant differences in the learning effect selected between the two scenarios of an item pair for 13 of this subset of 21 uncommon associations, even when a p-value of < 0.00625 was considered to indicate significance. Three mechanism factors were operational in most scenarios: agency; response efficacy, and response value. For a subset of uncommon associations in the model, the role of most assessment factor-learning effect associations and the mechanism factors involved were supported in a broader but similar population to that in which the model was derived. Although model validation is an ongoing process, these results move the model one step closer to the stage of usefully informing interventions. Results illustrate how factors not typically included in studies of the learning effects of assessment could confound the results of interventions aimed at using assessment to influence learning. © Blackwell Publishing Ltd 2012.

A review of helium-hydrogen synergistic effects in radiation damage observed in fusion energy steels and an interaction model to guide future understanding

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marian, Jaime; Hoang, Tuan; Fluss, Michael; Hsiung, Luke L.

2015-07-01

Under fusion reactor conditions, large quantities of irradiation defects and transmutation gases are produced per unit time by neutrons, resulting in accelerated degradation of structural candidate ferritic (F) and ferritic/martensitic (F/M) steels. Due to the lack of a suitable fusion neutron testing facility, we must rely on high-dose-rate ion-beam experiments and present-day crude modeling estimates. Of particular interest is the possibility of synergistic (positive feedback) effects on materials properties due to the simultaneous action of He, H, and displacement damage (dpa) during operation. In this paper we discuss the state-of-the-art in terms of the experimental understanding of synergistic effects and carry out simulations of triple-species irradiation under ion-beam conditions using first-of-its-kind modeling techniques. Although, state-of-the-art modeling and simulation is not sufficiently well developed to shed light on the experimental uncertainties, we are able to conclude that it is not clear whether synergistic effects, the evidence of which is still not conclusive, will ultimately play a critical role in material performance under fusion energy conditions. We review here some of the evidence for the synergistic effects of hydrogen in the presence of helium and displacement damage, and also include some recent data from our research. While the experimental results to date suggest possible mechanisms for the observed synergistic effects, it is only with more advanced modeling that we can hope to understand the details underlying the experimental observations. By employing modeling and simulation we propose an interaction model that is qualitatively consistent with experimental observations of dpa/He/H irradiation behavior. Our modeling, the results of which should be helpful to researchers going forward, points to gaps and voids in the current understanding of triple ion-beam irradiation effects (displacement damage produced simultaneously with helium and hydrogen implantation) and the synergistic effects of hydrogen.

Risks of ocean acidification in the California Current food web and fisheries: ecosystem model projections.

PubMed

Marshall, Kristin N; Kaplan, Isaac C; Hodgson, Emma E; Hermann, Albert; Busch, D Shallin; McElhany, Paul; Essington, Timothy E; Harvey, Chris J; Fulton, Elizabeth A

2017-04-01

The benefits and ecosystem services that humans derive from the oceans are threatened by numerous global change stressors, one of which is ocean acidification. Here, we describe the effects of ocean acidification on an upwelling system that already experiences inherently low pH conditions, the California Current. We used an end-to-end ecosystem model (Atlantis), forced by downscaled global climate models and informed by a meta-analysis of the pH sensitivities of local taxa, to investigate the direct and indirect effects of future pH on biomass and fisheries revenues. Our model projects a 0.2-unit drop in pH during the summer upwelling season from 2013 to 2063, which results in wide-ranging magnitudes of effects across guilds and functional groups. The most dramatic direct effects of future pH may be expected on epibenthic invertebrates (crabs, shrimps, benthic grazers, benthic detritivores, bivalves), and strong indirect effects expected on some demersal fish, sharks, and epibenthic invertebrates (Dungeness crab) because they consume species known to be sensitive to changing pH. The model's pelagic community, including marine mammals and seabirds, was much less influenced by future pH. Some functional groups were less affected to changing pH in the model than might be expected from experimental studies in the empirical literature due to high population productivity (e.g., copepods, pteropods). Model results suggest strong effects of reduced pH on nearshore state-managed invertebrate fisheries, but modest effects on the groundfish fishery because individual groundfish species exhibited diverse responses to changing pH. Our results provide a set of projections that generally support and build upon previous findings and set the stage for hypotheses to guide future modeling and experimental analysis on the effects of OA on marine ecosystems and fisheries. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

3D-modelling of the thermal circumstances of a lake under artificial aeration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tian, Xiaoqing; Pan, Huachen; Köngäs, Petrina; Horppila, Jukka

2017-12-01

A 3D-model was developed to study the effects of hypolimnetic aeration on the temperature profile of a thermally stratified Lake Vesijärvi (southern Finland). Aeration was conducted by pumping epilimnetic water through the thermocline to the hypolimnion without breaking the thermal stratification. The model used time transient equation based on Navier-Stokes equation. The model was fitted to the vertical temperature distribution and environmental parameters (wind, air temperature, and solar radiation) before the onset of aeration, and the model was used to predict the vertical temperature distribution 3 and 15 days after the onset of aeration (1 August and 22 August). The difference between the modelled and observed temperature was on average 0.6 °C. The average percentage model error was 4.0% on 1 August and 3.7% on 22 August. In the epilimnion, model accuracy depended on the difference between the observed temperature and boundary conditions. In the hypolimnion, the model residual decreased with increasing depth. On 1 August, the model predicted a homogenous temperature profile in the hypolimnion, while the observed temperature decreased moderately from the thermocline to the bottom. This was because the effect of sediment was not included in the model. On 22 August, the modelled and observed temperatures near the bottom were identical demonstrating that the heat transfer by the aerator masked the effect of sediment and that exclusion of sediment heat from the model does not cause considerable error unless very short-term effects of aeration are studied. In all, the model successfully described the effects of the aerator on the lake's temperature profile. The results confirmed the validity of the applied computational fluid dynamic in artificial aeration; based on the simulated results, the effect of aeration can be predicted.

The sensitivity of biological finite element models to the resolution of surface geometry: a case study of crocodilian crania

PubMed Central

Evans, Alistair R.; McHenry, Colin R.

2015-01-01

The reliability of finite element analysis (FEA) in biomechanical investigations depends upon understanding the influence of model assumptions. In producing finite element models, surface mesh resolution is influenced by the resolution of input geometry, and influences the resolution of the ensuing solid mesh used for numerical analysis. Despite a large number of studies incorporating sensitivity studies of the effects of solid mesh resolution there has not yet been any investigation into the effect of surface mesh resolution upon results in a comparative context. Here we use a dataset of crocodile crania to examine the effects of surface resolution on FEA results in a comparative context. Seven high-resolution surface meshes were each down-sampled to varying degrees while keeping the resulting number of solid elements constant. These models were then subjected to bite and shake load cases using finite element analysis. The results show that incremental decreases in surface resolution can result in fluctuations in strain magnitudes, but that it is possible to obtain stable results using lower resolution surface in a comparative FEA study. As surface mesh resolution links input geometry with the resulting solid mesh, the implication of these results is that low resolution input geometry and solid meshes may provide valid results in a comparative context. PMID:26056620

Light propagation in Swiss-cheese models of random close-packed Szekeres structures: Effects of anisotropy and comparisons with perturbative results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koksbang, S. M.

2017-03-01

Light propagation in two Swiss-cheese models based on anisotropic Szekeres structures is studied and compared with light propagation in Swiss-cheese models based on the Szekeres models' underlying Lemaitre-Tolman-Bondi models. The study shows that the anisotropy of the Szekeres models has only a small effect on quantities such as redshift-distance relations, projected shear and expansion rate along individual light rays. The average angular diameter distance to the last scattering surface is computed for each model. Contrary to earlier studies, the results obtained here are (mostly) in agreement with perturbative results. In particular, a small negative shift, δ DA≔D/A-DA ,b g DA ,b g , in the angular diameter distance is obtained upon line-of-sight averaging in three of the four models. The results are, however, not statistically significant. In the fourth model, there is a small positive shift which has an especially small statistical significance. The line-of-sight averaged inverse magnification at z =1100 is consistent with 1 to a high level of confidence for all models, indicating that the area of the surface corresponding to z =1100 is close to that of the background.

Bayesian inference for two-part mixed-effects model using skew distributions, with application to longitudinal semicontinuous alcohol data.

PubMed

Xing, Dongyuan; Huang, Yangxin; Chen, Henian; Zhu, Yiliang; Dagne, Getachew A; Baldwin, Julie

2017-08-01

Semicontinuous data featured with an excessive proportion of zeros and right-skewed continuous positive values arise frequently in practice. One example would be the substance abuse/dependence symptoms data for which a substantial proportion of subjects investigated may report zero. Two-part mixed-effects models have been developed to analyze repeated measures of semicontinuous data from longitudinal studies. In this paper, we propose a flexible two-part mixed-effects model with skew distributions for correlated semicontinuous alcohol data under the framework of a Bayesian approach. The proposed model specification consists of two mixed-effects models linked by the correlated random effects: (i) a model on the occurrence of positive values using a generalized logistic mixed-effects model (Part I); and (ii) a model on the intensity of positive values using a linear mixed-effects model where the model errors follow skew distributions including skew- t and skew-normal distributions (Part II). The proposed method is illustrated with an alcohol abuse/dependence symptoms data from a longitudinal observational study, and the analytic results are reported by comparing potential models under different random-effects structures. Simulation studies are conducted to assess the performance of the proposed models and method.

A ‘frozen volume’ transition model and working mechanism for the shape memory effect in amorphous polymers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, Haibao; Wang, Xiaodong; Yao, Yongtao; Qing Fu, Yong

2018-06-01

Phenomenological models based on frozen volume parameters could well predict shape recovery behavior of shape memory polymers (SMPs), but the physical meaning of using the frozen volume parameters to describe thermomechanical properties has not been well-established. In this study, the fundamental working mechanisms of the shape memory effect (SME) in amorphous SMPs, whose temperature-dependent viscoelastic behavior follows the Eyring equation, have been established with the considerations of both internal stress and its resulted frozen volume. The stress-strain constitutive relation was initially modeled to quantitatively describe effects of internal stresses at the macromolecular scale based on the transient network theory. A phenomenological ‘frozen volume’ model was then established to characterize the macromolecule structure and SME of amorphous SMPs based on a two-site stress-relaxation model. Effects of the internal stress, frozen volume and strain rate on shape memory behavior and thermomechanical properties of the SMP were investigated. Finally, the simulation results were compared with the experimental results reported in the literature, and good agreements between the theoretical and experimental results were achieved. The novelty and key differences of our newly proposed model with respect to the previous reports are (1). The ‘frozen volume’ in our study is caused by the internal stress and governed by the two-site model theory, thus has a good physical meaning. (2). The model can be applied to characterize and predict both the thermal and thermomechanical behaviors of SMPs based on the constitutive relationship with internal stress parameters. It is expected to provide a power tool to investigate the thermomechanical behavior of the SMPs, of which both the macromolecular structure characteristics and SME could be predicted using this ‘frozen volume’ model.

Effect of shoulder model complexity in upper-body kinematics analysis of the golf swing.

PubMed

Bourgain, M; Hybois, S; Thoreux, P; Rouillon, O; Rouch, P; Sauret, C

2018-06-25

The golf swing is a complex full body movement during which the spine and shoulders are highly involved. In order to determine shoulder kinematics during this movement, multibody kinematics optimization (MKO) can be recommended to limit the effect of the soft tissue artifact and to avoid joint dislocations or bone penetration in reconstructed kinematics. Classically, in golf biomechanics research, the shoulder is represented by a 3 degrees-of-freedom model representing the glenohumeral joint. More complex and physiological models are already provided in the scientific literature. Particularly, the model used in this study was a full body model and also described motions of clavicles and scapulae. This study aimed at quantifying the effect of utilizing a more complex and physiological shoulder model when studying the golf swing. Results obtained on 20 golfers showed that a more complex and physiologically-accurate model can more efficiently track experimental markers, which resulted in differences in joint kinematics. Hence, the model with 3 degrees-of-freedom between the humerus and the thorax may be inadequate when combined with MKO and a more physiological model would be beneficial. Finally, results would also be improved through a subject-specific approach for the determination of the segment lengths. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of Time- and Concentration-dependent Toxic Effect Models for use in Aquatic Risk Assessments, Oral Presentation

EPA Science Inventory

Various models have been proposed for describing the time- and concentration-dependence of toxic effects to aquatic organisms, which would improve characterization of risks in natural systems. Selected models were evaluated using results from a study on the lethality of copper t...

Effects of Correctional-Based Programs for Female Inmates: A Systematic Review

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tripodi, Stephen J.; Bledsoe, Sarah E.; Kim, Johnny S.; Bender, Kimberly

2011-01-01

Objective: To examine the effectiveness of interventions for incarcerated women. Method: The researchers use a two-model system: the risk-reduction model for studies analyzing interventions to reduce recidivism rates, and the enhancement model for studies that target psychological and physical well-being. Results: Incarcerated women who…

Potential environmental impact of tidal energy extraction in the Pentland Firth at large spatial scales: results of a biogeochemical model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van der Molen, J.; Ruardij, P.; Greenwood, N.

2015-12-01

A model study was carried out of the potential large-scale (> 100 km) effects of marine renewable tidal energy generation in the Pentland Firth, using the 3-D hydrodynamics-biogeochemistry model GETM-ERSEM-BFM. A realistic 800 MW scenario and an exaggerated academic 8 GW scenario were considered. The realistic 800 MW scenario suggested minor effects on the tides, and undetectable effects on the biogeochemistry. The academic 8 GW scenario suggested effects would be observed over hundreds of kilometres away with changes of up to 10 % in tidal and ecosystem variables, in particular in a broad area in the vicinity of The Wash. There, waters became less turbid, and primary production increased with associated increases in faunal ecosystem variables. Moreover, a one-off increase in carbon storage in the sea bed was detected. Although these first results suggest positive environmental effects, further investigation is recommended of: (i) the residual circulation in the vicinity of the Pentland Firth and effects on larval dispersal using a higher resolution model, (ii) ecosystem effects with (future) state-of-the-art models if energy extraction substantially beyond 1 GW is planned.

Research for the jamming mechanism of high-frequency laser to the laser seeker

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, Xingyuan; Zhang, Haiyang; Wang, Yunping; Feng, Shuang; Zhao, Changming

2013-08-01

High-frequency laser will be able to enter the enemy laser signal processing systems without encoded identification and a copy. That makes it one of the research directions of new interference sources. In order to study the interference mechanism of high-frequency laser to laser guided weapons. According to the principle of high-frequency laser interference, a series of related theoretical models such as a semi-active laser seeker coded identification model, a time door model, multi-signal processing model and a interference signal modulation processing model are established. Then seeker interfere with effective 3σ criterion is proposed. Based on this, the study of the effect of multi-source interference and signal characteristics of the effect of high repetition frequency laser interference are key research. According to the simulation system testing, the results show that the multi-source interference and interference signal frequency modulation can effectively enhance the interference effect. While the interference effect of the interference signal amplitude modulation is not obvious. The research results will provide the evaluation of high-frequency laser interference effect and provide theoretical references for high-frequency laser interference system application.

Building more effective sea level rise models for coastal management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kidwell, D.; Buckel, C.; Collini, R.; Meckley, T.

2017-12-01

For over a decade, increased attention on coastal resilience and adaptation to sea level rise has resulted in a proliferation of predictive models and tools. This proliferation has enhanced our understanding of our vulnerability to sea level rise, but has also led to stakeholder fatigue in trying to realize the value of each advancement. These models vary in type and complexity ranging from GIS-based bathtub viewers to modeling systems that dynamically couple complex biophysical and geomorphic processes. These approaches and capabilities typically have the common purpose using scenarios of global and regional sea level change to inform adaptation and mitigation. In addition, stakeholders are often presented a plethora of options to address sea level rise issues from a variety of agencies, academics, and consulting firms. All of this can result in confusion, misapplication of a specific model/tool, and stakeholder feedback of "no more new science or tools, just help me understand which one to use". Concerns from stakeholders have led to the question; how do we move forward with sea level rise modeling? This presentation will provide a synthesis of the experiences and feedback derived from NOAA's Ecological Effects of Sea level Rise (EESLR) program to discuss the future of predictive sea level rise impact modeling. EESLR is an applied research program focused on the advancement of dynamic modeling capabilities in collaboration with local and regional stakeholders. Key concerns from stakeholder engagement include questions about model uncertainty, approaches for model validation, and a lack of cross-model comparisons. Effective communication of model/tool products, capabilities, and results is paramount to address these concerns. Looking forward, the most effective predictions of sea level rise impacts on our coast will be attained through a focus on coupled modeling systems, particularly those that connect natural processes and human response.

Scaling effects in the static and dynamic response of graphite-epoxy beam-columns. Ph.D. Thesis - Virginia Polytechnic Inst. and State Univ.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jackson, Karen E.

1990-01-01

Scale model technology represents one method of investigating the behavior of advanced, weight-efficient composite structures under a variety of loading conditions. It is necessary, however, to understand the limitations involved in testing scale model structures before the technique can be fully utilized. These limitations, or scaling effects, are characterized. in the large deflection response and failure of composite beams. Scale model beams were loaded with an eccentric axial compressive load designed to produce large bending deflections and global failure. A dimensional analysis was performed on the composite beam-column loading configuration to determine a model law governing the system response. An experimental program was developed to validate the model law under both static and dynamic loading conditions. Laminate stacking sequences including unidirectional, angle ply, cross ply, and quasi-isotropic were tested to examine a diversity of composite response and failure modes. The model beams were loaded under scaled test conditions until catastrophic failure. A large deflection beam solution was developed to compare with the static experimental results and to analyze beam failure. Also, the finite element code DYCAST (DYnamic Crash Analysis of STructure) was used to model both the static and impulsive beam response. Static test results indicate that the unidirectional and cross ply beam responses scale as predicted by the model law, even under severe deformations. In general, failure modes were consistent between scale models within a laminate family; however, a significant scale effect was observed in strength. The scale effect in strength which was evident in the static tests was also observed in the dynamic tests. Scaling of load and strain time histories between the scale model beams and the prototypes was excellent for the unidirectional beams, but inconsistent results were obtained for the angle ply, cross ply, and quasi-isotropic beams. Results show that valuable information can be obtained from testing on scale model composite structures, especially in the linear elastic response region. However, due to scaling effects in the strength behavior of composite laminates, caution must be used in extrapolating data taken from a scale model test when that test involves failure of the structure.

A mathematical model for CTL effect on a latently infected cell inclusive HIV dynamics and treatment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tarfulea, N. E.

2017-10-01

This paper investigates theoretically and numerically the effect of immune effectors, such as the cytotoxic lymphocyte (CTL), in modeling HIV pathogenesis (via a newly developed mathematical model); our results suggest the significant impact of the immune response on the control of the virus during primary infection. Qualitative aspects (including positivity, boundedness, stability, uncertainty, and sensitivity analysis) are addressed. Additionally, by introducing drug therapy, we analyze numerically the model to assess the effect of treatment consisting of a combination of several antiretroviral drugs. Our results show that the inclusion of the CTL compartment produces a higher rebound for an individual's healthy helper T-cell compartment than drug therapy alone. Furthermore, we quantitatively characterize successful drugs or drug combination scenarios.

Analysis of longwave radiation for the Earth-atmosphere system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tiwari, S. N.; Venuru, C. S.; Subramanian, S. V.

1983-01-01

Accurate radiative transfer models are used to determine the upwelling atmospheric radiance and net radiative flux in the entire longwave spectral range. The validity of the quasi-random band model is established by comparing the results of this model with those of line-by-line formulations and with available theoretical and experimental results. Existing radiative transfer models and computer codes are modified to include various surface and atmospheric effects (surface reflection, nonequilibrium radiation, and cloud effects). The program is used to evaluate the radiative flux in clear atmosphere, provide sensitivity analysis of upwelling radiance in the presence of clouds, and determine the effects of various climatological parameters on the upwelling radiation and anisotropic function. Homogeneous and nonhomogeneous gas emissivities can also be evaluated under different conditions.

Some comments on the World Energy Conference (WEC) energy demand model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brandell, L.

1982-04-01

The WEC model, relating the energy demand for a region in a year to gross national product (GNP), aggregated energy prices and elasticity constants, is generalized. The changes that result from the assumption that the elasticity factors are not constant are examined. The resulting differential equation contains the variables energy demand per capita and GNP per capita for the region considered. The effect of time lag in energy demand and the influence of the population growth rate are also included in the model. No projections of the future energy demand were made, but model sensitiveness to the modifications were studied. Time lag effects and population growth effects can raise the projected energy demand for a region by 10% or more.

Persistence of initial conditions in continental scale air quality simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hogrefe, Christian; Roselle, Shawn J.; Bash, Jesse O.

2017-07-01

This study investigates the effect of initial conditions (IC) for pollutant concentrations in the atmosphere and soil on simulated air quality for two continental-scale Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model applications. One of these applications was performed for springtime and the second for summertime. Results show that a spin-up period of ten days commonly used in regional-scale applications may not be sufficient to reduce the effects of initial conditions to less than 1% of seasonally-averaged surface ozone concentrations everywhere while 20 days were found to be sufficient for the entire domain for the spring case and almost the entire domain for the summer case. For the summer case, differences were found to persist longer aloft due to circulation of air masses and even a spin-up period of 30 days was not sufficient to reduce the effects of ICs to less than 1% of seasonally-averaged layer 34 ozone concentrations over the southwestern portion of the modeling domain. Analysis of the effect of soil initial conditions for the CMAQ bidirectional NH3 exchange model shows that during springtime they can have an important effect on simulated inorganic aerosols concentrations for time periods of one month or longer. The effects are less pronounced during other seasons. The results, while specific to the modeling domain and time periods simulated here, suggest that modeling protocols need to be scrutinized for a given application and that it cannot be assumed that commonly-used spin-up periods are necessarily sufficient to reduce the effects of initial conditions on model results to an acceptable level. What constitutes an acceptable level of difference cannot be generalized and will depend on the particular application, time period and species of interest. Moreover, as the application of air quality models is being expanded to cover larger geographical domains and as these models are increasingly being coupled with other modeling systems to better represent air-surface-water exchanges, the effects of model initialization in such applications needs to be studied in future work.

Effective connectivity between superior temporal gyrus and Heschl's gyrus during white noise listening: linear versus non-linear models.

PubMed

Hamid, Ka; Yusoff, An; Rahman, Mza; Mohamad, M; Hamid, Aia

2012-04-01

This fMRI study is about modelling the effective connectivity between Heschl's gyrus (HG) and the superior temporal gyrus (STG) in human primary auditory cortices. MATERIALS #ENTITYSTARTX00026; Ten healthy male participants were required to listen to white noise stimuli during functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) scans. Statistical parametric mapping (SPM) was used to generate individual and group brain activation maps. For input region determination, two intrinsic connectivity models comprising bilateral HG and STG were constructed using dynamic causal modelling (DCM). The models were estimated and inferred using DCM while Bayesian Model Selection (BMS) for group studies was used for model comparison and selection. Based on the winning model, six linear and six non-linear causal models were derived and were again estimated, inferred, and compared to obtain a model that best represents the effective connectivity between HG and the STG, balancing accuracy and complexity. Group results indicated significant asymmetrical activation (p(uncorr) < 0.001) in bilateral HG and STG. Model comparison results showed strong evidence of STG as the input centre. The winning model is preferred by 6 out of 10 participants. The results were supported by BMS results for group studies with the expected posterior probability, r = 0.7830 and exceedance probability, ϕ = 0.9823. One-sample t-tests performed on connection values obtained from the winning model indicated that the valid connections for the winning model are the unidirectional parallel connections from STG to bilateral HG (p < 0.05). Subsequent model comparison between linear and non-linear models using BMS prefers non-linear connection (r = 0.9160, ϕ = 1.000) from which the connectivity between STG and the ipsi- and contralateral HG is gated by the activity in STG itself. We are able to demonstrate that the effective connectivity between HG and STG while listening to white noise for the respective participants can be explained by a non-linear dynamic causal model with the activity in STG influencing the STG-HG connectivity non-linearly.

Parameter and model uncertainty in a life-table model for fine particles (PM2.5): a statistical modeling study

PubMed Central

Tainio, Marko; Tuomisto, Jouni T; Hänninen, Otto; Ruuskanen, Juhani; Jantunen, Matti J; Pekkanen, Juha

2007-01-01

Background The estimation of health impacts involves often uncertain input variables and assumptions which have to be incorporated into the model structure. These uncertainties may have significant effects on the results obtained with model, and, thus, on decision making. Fine particles (PM2.5) are believed to cause major health impacts, and, consequently, uncertainties in their health impact assessment have clear relevance to policy-making. We studied the effects of various uncertain input variables by building a life-table model for fine particles. Methods Life-expectancy of the Helsinki metropolitan area population and the change in life-expectancy due to fine particle exposures were predicted using a life-table model. A number of parameter and model uncertainties were estimated. Sensitivity analysis for input variables was performed by calculating rank-order correlations between input and output variables. The studied model uncertainties were (i) plausibility of mortality outcomes and (ii) lag, and parameter uncertainties (iii) exposure-response coefficients for different mortality outcomes, and (iv) exposure estimates for different age groups. The monetary value of the years-of-life-lost and the relative importance of the uncertainties related to monetary valuation were predicted to compare the relative importance of the monetary valuation on the health effect uncertainties. Results The magnitude of the health effects costs depended mostly on discount rate, exposure-response coefficient, and plausibility of the cardiopulmonary mortality. Other mortality outcomes (lung cancer, other non-accidental and infant mortality) and lag had only minor impact on the output. The results highlight the importance of the uncertainties associated with cardiopulmonary mortality in the fine particle impact assessment when compared with other uncertainties. Conclusion When estimating life-expectancy, the estimates used for cardiopulmonary exposure-response coefficient, discount rate, and plausibility require careful assessment, while complicated lag estimates can be omitted without this having any major effect on the results. PMID:17714598

Quantification of effective plant rooting depth: advancing global hydrological modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Y.; Donohue, R. J.; McVicar, T.

2017-12-01

Plant rooting depth (Zr) is a key parameter in hydrological and biogeochemical models, yet the global spatial distribution of Zr is largely unknown due to the difficulties in its direct measurement. Moreover, Zr observations are usually only representative of a single plant or several plants, which can differ greatly from the effective Zr over a modelling unit (e.g., catchment or grid-box). Here, we provide a global parameterization of an analytical Zr model that balances the marginal carbon cost and benefit of deeper roots, and produce a climatological (i.e., 1982-2010 average) global Zr map. To test the Zr estimates, we apply the estimated Zr in a highly transparent hydrological model (i.e., the Budyko-Choudhury-Porporato (BCP) model) to estimate mean annual actual evapotranspiration (E) across the globe. We then compare the estimated E with both water balance-based E observations at 32 major catchments and satellite grid-box retrievals across the globe. Our results show that the BCP model, when implemented with Zr estimated herein, optimally reproduced the spatial pattern of E at both scales and provides improved model outputs when compared to BCP model results from two already existing global Zr datasets. These results suggest that our Zr estimates can be effectively used in state-of-the-art hydrological models, and potentially biogeochemical models, where the determination of Zr currently largely relies on biome type-based look-up tables.

Linking environmental effects to health impacts: a computer modelling approach for air pollution

PubMed Central

Mindell, J.; Barrowcliffe, R.

2005-01-01

Study objective and Setting: To develop a computer model, using a geographical information system (GIS), to quantify potential health effects of air pollution from a new energy from waste facility on the surrounding urban population. Design: Health impacts were included where evidence of causality is sufficiently convincing. The evidence for no threshold means that annual average increases in concentration can be used to model changes in outcome. The study combined the "contours" of additional pollutant concentrations for the new source generated by a dispersion model with a population database within a GIS, which is set up to calculate the product of the concentration increase with numbers of people exposed within each enumeration district exposure response coefficients, and the background rates of mortality and hospital admissions for several causes. Main results: The magnitude of health effects might result from the increased PM10 exposure is small—about 0.03 deaths each year in a population of 3 500 000, with 0.04 extra hospital admissions for respiratory disease. Long term exposure might bring forward 1.8–7.8 deaths in 30 years. Conclusions: This computer model is a feasible approach to estimating impacts on human health from environmental effects but sensitivity analyses are recommended. Relevance to clinical or professional practice: The availability of GIS and dispersion models on personal computers enables quantification of health effects resulting from the additional air pollution new industrial development might cause. This approach could also be used in environmental impact assessment. Care must be taken in presenting results to emphasise methodological limitations and uncertainties in the numbers. PMID:16286501

3D Modeling Effect of Spherical Inclusions on the Magnetostriction of Bulk Superconductors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Yufeng; Pan, Baocai

2018-02-01

In this paper, the dependence of the effective magnetostriction of bulk superconductors on the elastic parameters including the volume fraction and elastic modulus ratio is studied by a three-dimensional model consisting of a spherical inclusion-superconducting matrix system. The effect of the elastic modulus and volume fraction on the magnetostriction is also obtained through the magnetostriction loop. The results indicate that the elastic modulus and volume fraction have obvious effects on the effective magnetostriction of the superconducting composite, which gives an explanation about the differences between the experimental and the theoretical results. Furthermore, it is worth pointing out that the linear field dependence of magnetostriction is unique to the Bean model by comparing the curve shapes of the magnetostriction loop with and without inclusion.

Thrombectomy for ischemic stroke: meta-analyses of recurrent strokes, vasospasms, and subarachnoid hemorrhages.

PubMed

Emprechtinger, Robert; Piso, Brigitte; Ringleb, Peter A

2017-03-01

Mechanical thrombectomy with stent retrievers is an effective treatment for patients with ischemic stroke. Results of recent meta-analyses report that the treatment is safe. However, the endpoints recurrent stroke, vasospasms, and subarachnoid hemorrhage have not been evaluated sufficiently. Hence, we extracted data on these outcomes from the five recent thrombectomy trials (MR CLEAN, ESCAPE, REVASCAT, SWIFT PRIME, and EXTEND IA published in 2015). Subsequently, we conducted meta-analyses for each outcome. We report the results of the fixed, as well as the random effects model. Three studies reported data on recurrent strokes. While the results did not reach statistical significance in the random effects model (despite a three times elevated risk), the fixed effects model revealed a significantly higher rate of recurrent strokes after thrombectomy. Four studies reported data on subarachnoid hemorrhage. The higher pooled rates in the intervention groups were statistically significant in both, the fixed and the random effects model. One study reported on vasospasms. We recorded 14 events in the intervention group and none in the control group. The efficacy of mechanical thrombectomy is not questioned, yet our results indicate an increased risk for recurrent strokes, subarachnoid hemorrhage, and vasospasms post-treatment. Therefore, we strongly recommend a thoroughly surveillance, concerning these adverse events in future clinical trials and routine registries.

Investigation of the flight mechanics simulation of a hovering helicopter

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chaimovich, M.; Rosen, A.; Rand, O.; Mansur, M. H.; Tischler, M. B.

1992-01-01

The flight mechanics simulation of a hovering helicopter is investigated by comparing the results of two different numerical models with flight test data for a hovering AH-64 Apache. The two models are the U.S. Army BEMAP and the Technion model. These nonlinear models are linearized by applying a numerical linearization procedure. The results of the linear models are compared with identification results in terms of eigenvalues, stability and control derivatives, and frequency responses. Detailed time histories of the responses of the complete nonlinear models, as a result of various pilots' inputs, are compared with flight test results. In addition the sensitivity of the models to various effects are also investigated. The results are discussed and problematic aspects of the simulation are identified.

Calculation of Thermally-Induced Displacements in Spherically Domed Ion Engine Grids

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Soulas, George C.

2006-01-01

An analytical method for predicting the thermally-induced normal and tangential displacements of spherically domed ion optics grids under an axisymmetric thermal loading is presented. A fixed edge support that could be thermally expanded is used for this analysis. Equations for the displacements both normal and tangential to the surface of the spherical shell are derived. A simplified equation for the displacement at the center of the spherical dome is also derived. The effects of plate perforation on displacements and stresses are determined by modeling the perforated plate as an equivalent solid plate with modified, or effective, material properties. Analytical model results are compared to the results from a finite element model. For the solid shell, comparisons showed that the analytical model produces results that closely match the finite element model results. The simplified equation for the normal displacement of the spherical dome center is also found to accurately predict this displacement. For the perforated shells, the analytical solution and simplified equation produce accurate results for materials with low thermal expansion coefficients.

Alcohol consumption promotes mammary tumor growth and insulin sensitivity

PubMed Central

Hong, Jina; Holcomb, Valerie B.; Tekle, Samrawit A.; Fan, Betty; Núñez, Nomelí P.

2010-01-01

Epidemiological data show that in women, alcohol has a beneficial effect by increasing insulin sensitivity but also a deleterious effect by increasing breast cancer risk. These effects have not been shown concurrently in an animal model of breast cancer. Our objective is to identify a mouse model of breast cancer whereby alcohol increases insulin sensitivity and promotes mammary tumorigenesis. Our results from the glucose tolerance test and the homeostasis model assessment show that alcohol consumption improved insulin sensitivity. However, alcohol-consuming mice developed larger mammary tumors and developed them earlier than water-consuming mice. In vitro results showed that alcohol exposure increased the invasiveness of breast cancer cells in a dose-dependent manner. Thus, this animal model, an in vitro model of breast cancer, may be used to elucidate the mechanism(s) by which alcohol affects breast cancer. PMID:20202743

Evaporative cooling and the Mpemba effect

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vynnycky, M.; Mitchell, S. L.

2010-10-01

The Mpemba effect is popularly summarized by the statement that “hot water can freeze faster than cold”, and has been observed experimentally since the time of Aristotle; however, there exist almost no theoretical models that predict the effect. With a view to initiating rigorous modelling activity on this topic, this paper analyzes in some depth the only available model in literature, which considers the potential role of evaporative cooling and treats the cooling water as a lumped mass. Certain omissions in the original work are highlighted and corrected, and results are obtained for a wide range of operating conditions—in particular, initial liquid temperature and cooling temperature. The implications and importance of the results of the model for experimental design are discussed, as are extensions of the model to handle more realistic 1-, 2- and 3-dimensional configurations.

Size effect model on kinetics of interfacial reaction between Sn-xAg-yCu solders and Cu substrate

PubMed Central

Huang, M. L.; Yang, F.

2014-01-01

The downsizing of solder balls results in larger interfacial intermetallic compound (IMC) grains and less Cu substrate consumption in lead-free soldering on Cu substrates. This size effect on the interfacial reaction is experimentally demonstrated and theoretically analyzed using Sn-3.0Ag-0.5Cu and Sn-3.5Ag solder balls. The interfacial reaction between the Sn-xAg-yCu solders and Cu substrates is a dynamic response to a combination of effects of interfacial IMC growth, Cu substrate consumption and composition variation in the interface zone. A concentration gradient controlled (CGC) kinetics model is proposed to explain the combined effects. The concentration gradient of Cu at the interface, which is a function of solder volume, initial Cu concentration and reaction time, is the root cause of the size effect. We found that a larger Cu concentration gradient results in smaller Cu6Sn5 grains and more consumption of Cu substrate. According to our model, the growth kinetics of interfacial Cu6Sn5 obeys a t1/3 law when the molten solder has approached the solution saturation, and will be slower otherwise due to the interfering dissolution mechanism. The size effect introduced in this model is supported by a good agreement between theoretical and experimental results. Finally, the scope of application of this model is discussed. PMID:25408359

An evaluation of the production effects of video self-modeling.

PubMed

O'Handley, Roderick D; Allen, Keith D

2017-12-01

A multiple baseline across tasks design was used to evaluate the production effects of video self-modeling on three activities of daily living tasks of an adult male with Autism Spectrum Disorder and Intellectual Disability. Results indicated large increases in task accuracy after the production of a self-modeling video for each task, but before the video was viewed by the participant. Results also indicated small increases when the participant was directed to view the same video self-models before being prompted to complete each task. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Model-guided control of hippocampal discharges by local direct current stimulation.

PubMed

Mina, Faten; Modolo, Julien; Recher, Fanny; Dieuset, Gabriel; Biraben, Arnaud; Benquet, Pascal; Wendling, Fabrice

2017-05-10

Neurostimulation is an emerging treatment for drug-resistant epilepsies when surgery is contraindicated. Recent clinical results demonstrate significant seizure frequency reduction in epileptic patients, however the mechanisms underlying this therapeutic effect are largely unknown. This study aimed at gaining insights into local direct current stimulation (LDCS) effects on hyperexcitable tissue, by i) analyzing the impact of electrical currents locally applied on epileptogenic brain regions, and ii) characterizing currents achieving an "anti-epileptic" effect (excitability reduction). First, a neural mass model of hippocampal circuits was extended to accurately reproduce the features of hippocampal paroxysmal discharges (HPD) observed in a mouse model of epilepsy. Second, model predictions regarding current intensity and stimulation polarity were confronted to in vivo mice recordings during LDCS (n = 8). The neural mass model was able to generate realistic hippocampal discharges. Simulation of LDCS in the model pointed at a significant decrease of simulated HPD (in duration and occurrence rate, not in amplitude) for cathodal stimulation, which was successfully verified experimentally in epileptic mice. Despite the simplicity of our stimulation protocol, these results contribute to a better understanding of clinical benefits observed in epileptic patients with implanted neurostimulators. Our results also provide further support for model-guided design of neuromodulation therapy.

Three-dimensional Reconstruction of Block Shape Irregularity and its Effects on Block Impacts Using an Energy-Based Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yulong; Liu, Zaobao; Shi, Chong; Shao, Jianfu

2018-04-01

This study is devoted to three-dimensional modeling of small falling rocks in block impact analysis in energy view using the particle flow method. The restitution coefficient of rockfall collision is introduced from the energy consumption mechanism to describe rockfall-impacting properties. Three-dimensional reconstruction of falling block is conducted with the help of spherical harmonic functions that have satisfactory mathematical properties such as orthogonality and rotation invariance. Numerical modeling of the block impact to the bedrock is analyzed with both the sphere-simplified model and the 3D reconstructed model. Comparisons of the obtained results suggest that the 3D reconstructed model is advantageous in considering the combination effects of rockfall velocity and rotations during colliding process. Verification of the modeling is carried out with the results obtained from other experiments. In addition, the effects of rockfall morphology, surface characteristics, velocity, and volume, colliding damping and relative angle are investigated. A three-dimensional reconstruction modulus of falling blocks is to be developed and incorporated into the rockfall simulation tools in order to extend the modeling results at block scale to slope scale.

What is the role of historical anthropogenically-induced land-cover change on the surface climate of West Africa? Results from the LUCID intercomparison project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Souleymane, S.

2015-12-01

West Africa has been highlighted as a hot spot of land surface-atmosphere interactions. This study analyses the outputs of the project Land-Use and Climate, IDentification of Robust Impacts (LUCID) over West Africa. LUCID used seven atmosphere-land models with a common experimental design to explore the impacts of Land Use induced Land Cover Change (LULCC) that are robust and consistent across the climate models. Focusing the analysis on Sahel and Guinea, this study shows that, even though the seven climate models use the same atmospheric and land cover forcing, there are significant differences of West African Monsoon variability across the climate models. The magnitude of that variability differs significantly from model to model resulting two major "features": (1) atmosphere dynamics models; (2) how the land-surface functioning is parameterized in the Land surface Model, in particular regarding the evapotranspiration partitioning within the different land-cover types, as well as the role of leaf area index (LAI) in the flux calculations and how strongly the surface is coupled to the atmosphere. The major role that the models'sensitivity to land-cover perturbations plays in the resulting climate impacts of LULCC has been analysed in this study. The climate models show, however, significant differences in the magnitude and the seasonal partitioning of the temperature change. The LULCC induced cooling is directed by decreases in net shortwave radiation that reduced the available energy (QA) (related to changes in land-cover properties other than albedo, such as LAI and surface roughness), which decreases during most part of the year. The biophysical impacts of LULCC were compared to the impact of elevated greenhouse gases resulting changes in sea surface temperatures and sea ice extent (CO2SST). The results show that the surface cooling (related a decrease in QA) induced by the biophysical effects of LULCC are insignificant compared to surface warming (related an increase in QA), which is induced by the regional significance effect of CO2SST due to a small LULCC imposed. In contrast, the decrease of surface water balance resulting from LULCC effect is a similar sign to those resulting from CO2SST but the signal resulting of the biophysical effects of LULCC is stronger than the regional CO2SST impact.

Spring hydrograph simulation of karstic aquifers: Impacts of variable recharge area, intermediate storage and memory effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hosseini, Seiyed Mossa; Ataie-Ashtiani, Behzad; Simmons, Craig T.

2017-09-01

A simple conceptual rainfall-runoff model is proposed for the estimation of groundwater balance components in complex karst aquifers. In the proposed model the effects of memory length of different karst flow systems of base-flow, intermediate-flow, and quick-flow and also time variation of recharge area (RA) during a hydrological year were investigated. The model consists of three sub-models: soil moisture balance (SMB), epikarst balance (EPB), and groundwater balance (GWB) to simulate the daily spring discharge. The SMB and EPB sub-models utilize the mass conservation equation to compute the variation of moisture storages in the soil cover and epikarst, respectively. The GWB sub-model computes the spring discharge hydrograph through three parallel linear reservoirs for base-flow, intermediate-flow, and quick-flow. Three antecedent recharge indices are defined and embedded in the model structure to deal with the memory effect of three karst flow systems to antecedent recharge flow. The Sasan Karst aquifer located in the semi-arid region of south-west Iran with a continuous long-term (21-years) daily meteorological and discharge data are considered to describe model calibration and validation procedures. The effects of temporal variations of RA of karst formations during the hydrological year namely invariant RA, two RA (winter and summer), four RA (seasonal), and twelve RA (monthly) are assessed to determine their impact on the model efficiency. Results indicated that the proposed model with monthly-variant RA is able to reproduce acceptable simulation results based on modified Kling-Gupta efficiency (KGE = -0.83). The results of density-based global sensitivity analysis for dry (June to September) and a wet (October to May) period reveal the dominant influence of RA (with sensitivity indices equal to 0.89 and 0.93, respectively) in spring discharge simulation. The sensitivity of simulated spring discharge to memory effect of different karst formations during the dry period is greater than the wet period. In addition, the results reveal the important role of intermediate-flow system in the hydrological modeling of karst systems during the wet period. Precise estimation of groundwater budgets for a better decision making regarding water supplies from complex karst systems with long memory effect can considerably be improved by use of the proposed model.

Effects of sample survey design on the accuracy of classification tree models in species distribution models

Treesearch

Thomas C. Edwards; D. Richard Cutler; Niklaus E. Zimmermann; Linda Geiser; Gretchen G. Moisen

2006-01-01

We evaluated the effects of probabilistic (hereafter DESIGN) and non-probabilistic (PURPOSIVE) sample surveys on resultant classification tree models for predicting the presence of four lichen species in the Pacific Northwest, USA. Models derived from both survey forms were assessed using an independent data set (EVALUATION). Measures of accuracy as gauged by...

Effective temperatures of red giants in the APOKASC catalogue and the mixing length calibration in stellar models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salaris, M.; Cassisi, S.; Schiavon, R. P.; Pietrinferni, A.

2018-04-01

Red giants in the updated APOGEE-Kepler catalogue, with estimates of mass, chemical composition, surface gravity and effective temperature, have recently challenged stellar models computed under the standard assumption of solar calibrated mixing length. In this work, we critically reanalyse this sample of red giants, adopting our own stellar model calculations. Contrary to previous results, we find that the disagreement between the Teff scale of red giants and models with solar calibrated mixing length disappears when considering our models and the APOGEE-Kepler stars with scaled solar metal distribution. However, a discrepancy shows up when α-enhanced stars are included in the sample. We have found that assuming mass, chemical composition and effective temperature scale of the APOGEE-Kepler catalogue, stellar models generally underpredict the change of temperature of red giants caused by α-element enhancements at fixed [Fe/H]. A second important conclusion is that the choice of the outer boundary conditions employed in model calculations is critical. Effective temperature differences (metallicity dependent) between models with solar calibrated mixing length and observations appear for some choices of the boundary conditions, but this is not a general result.

Studies of the Codeposition of Cobalt Hydroxide and Nickel Hydroxide

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ho, C. H.; Murthy, M.; VanZee, J. W.

1997-01-01

Topics considered include: chemistry, experimental measurements, planar film model development, impregnation model development, results and conclusion. Also included: effect of cobalt concentration on deposition/loading; effect of current density on loading distribution.

Testing the vulnerability and scar models of self-esteem and depressive symptoms from adolescence to middle adulthood and across generations.

PubMed

Steiger, Andrea E; Fend, Helmut A; Allemand, Mathias

2015-02-01

The vulnerability model states that low self-esteem functions as a predictor for the development of depressive symptoms whereas the scar model assumes that these symptoms leave scars in individuals resulting in lower self-esteem. Both models have received empirical support, however, they have only been tested within individuals and not across generations (i.e., between family members). Thus, we tested the scope of these competing models by (a) investigating whether the effects hold from adolescence to middle adulthood (long-term vulnerability and scar effects), (b) whether the effects hold across generations (intergenerational vulnerability and scar effects), and (c) whether intergenerational effects are mediated by parental self-esteem and depressive symptoms and parent-child discord. We used longitudinal data from adolescence to middle adulthood (N = 1,359) and from Generation 1 adolescents (G1) to Generation 2 adolescents (G2) (N = 572 parent-child pairs). Results from latent cross-lagged regression analyses demonstrated that both adolescent self-esteem and depressive symptoms were prospectively related to adult self-esteem and depressive symptoms 3 decades later. That is, both the vulnerability and scar models are valid over decades with stronger effects for the vulnerability model. Across generations, we found a substantial direct transmission effect from G1 to G2 adolescent depressive symptoms but no evidence for the proposed intergenerational vulnerability and scar effect or for any of the proposed mediating mechanisms. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved.

Accidental release of chlorine in Chicago: Coupling of an exposure model with a Computational Fluid Dynamics model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sanchez, E. Y.; Colman Lerner, J. E.; Porta, A.; Jacovkis, P. M.

2013-01-01

The adverse health effects of the release of hazardous substances into the atmosphere continue being a matter of concern, especially in densely populated urban regions. Emergency responders need to have estimates of these adverse health effects in the local population to aid planning, emergency response, and recovery efforts. For this purpose, models that predict the transport and dispersion of hazardous materials are as necessary as those that estimate the adverse health effects in the population. In this paper, we present the results obtained by coupling a Computational Fluid Dynamics model, FLACS (FLame ACceleration Simulator), with an exposure model, DDC (Damage Differential Coupling). This coupled model system is applied to a scenario of hypothetical release of chlorine with obstacles, such as buildings, and the results show how it is capable of predicting the atmospheric dispersion of hazardous chemicals, and the adverse health effects in the exposed population, to support decision makers both in charge of emergency planning and in charge of real-time response. The results obtained show how knowing the influence of obstacles in the trajectory of the toxic cloud and in the diffusion of the pollutants transported, and obtaining dynamic information of the potentially affected population and of associated symptoms, contribute to improve the planning of the protection and response measures.

[Simplification of crop shortage water index and its application in drought remote sensing monitoring].

PubMed

Liu, Anlin; Li, Xingmin; He, Yanbo; Deng, Fengdong

2004-02-01

Based on the principle of energy balance, the method for calculating latent evaporation was simplified, and hence, the construction of the drought remote sensing monitoring model of crop water shortage index was also simplified. Since the modified model involved fewer parameters and reduced computing times, it was more suitable for the operation running in the routine services. After collecting the concerned meteorological elements and the NOAA/AVHRR image data, the new model was applied to monitor the spring drought in Guanzhong, Shanxi Province. The results showed that the monitoring results from the new model, which also took more considerations of the effects of the ground coverage conditions and meteorological elements such as wind speed and the water pressure, were much better than the results from the model of vegetation water supply index. From the view of the computing times, service effects and monitoring results, the simplified crop water shortage index model was more suitable for practical use. In addition, the reasons of the abnormal results of CWSI > 1 in some regions in the case studies were also discussed in this paper.

Iontophoretic transport of oligonucleotides across human epidermal membrane: a study of the Nernst-Planck model.

PubMed

Li, S K; Ghanem, A H; Teng, C L; Hardee, G E; Higuchi, W I

2001-07-01

The objective of this study was to investigate the transport behavior of a series of oligonucleotides with human epidermal membrane (HEM) and to examine the applicability of the modified NERNST-PLANCK model to transdermal iontophoresis of these macromolecules. Iontophoretic transport experiments were first carried out in a synthetic model membrane system (Nuclepore membranes) with a four-electrode potentiostat to examine the baseline modified NERNST-PLANCK model. The modified NERNST-PLANCK model derived from the Einstein relation and the Stokes-Einstein equation taken from previous work did not hold for the oligonucleotides. Results obtained in the Nuclepore studies were, however, consistent with predictions of the modified NERNST-PLANCK model using the experimentally determined electromobilities and diffusion coefficients. The electromobilities of the oligonucleotides (determined by capillary electrophoresis) were found to be more than a factor of two smaller than expected from the Einstein relation between electromobilities and diffusion coefficients (the latter determined in diffusion cell experiments). A correlation between these electromobilities and the theoretical electromobilities estimated by considering the effects of counterion binding and the effects of mobility reduction according to colloid theory was also observed. These results suggest that the modified NERNST-PLANCK model predictions are satisfactory only when the electromobilities and the effective molecular size of the oligonucleotides are known and are used directly to predict the iontophoretically enhanced transport. Results with the HEM experiments generally agreed with model predictions based on the experimental electromobilities. The oligonucleotide HEM flux data also suggest the existence of pores with effective pore radii greater than the effective radii estimated in previous studies with small molecular weight model permeants.

Prediction models for clustered data: comparison of a random intercept and standard regression model.

PubMed

Bouwmeester, Walter; Twisk, Jos W R; Kappen, Teus H; van Klei, Wilton A; Moons, Karel G M; Vergouwe, Yvonne

2013-02-15

When study data are clustered, standard regression analysis is considered inappropriate and analytical techniques for clustered data need to be used. For prediction research in which the interest of predictor effects is on the patient level, random effect regression models are probably preferred over standard regression analysis. It is well known that the random effect parameter estimates and the standard logistic regression parameter estimates are different. Here, we compared random effect and standard logistic regression models for their ability to provide accurate predictions. Using an empirical study on 1642 surgical patients at risk of postoperative nausea and vomiting, who were treated by one of 19 anesthesiologists (clusters), we developed prognostic models either with standard or random intercept logistic regression. External validity of these models was assessed in new patients from other anesthesiologists. We supported our results with simulation studies using intra-class correlation coefficients (ICC) of 5%, 15%, or 30%. Standard performance measures and measures adapted for the clustered data structure were estimated. The model developed with random effect analysis showed better discrimination than the standard approach, if the cluster effects were used for risk prediction (standard c-index of 0.69 versus 0.66). In the external validation set, both models showed similar discrimination (standard c-index 0.68 versus 0.67). The simulation study confirmed these results. For datasets with a high ICC (≥15%), model calibration was only adequate in external subjects, if the used performance measure assumed the same data structure as the model development method: standard calibration measures showed good calibration for the standard developed model, calibration measures adapting the clustered data structure showed good calibration for the prediction model with random intercept. The models with random intercept discriminate better than the standard model only if the cluster effect is used for predictions. The prediction model with random intercept had good calibration within clusters.

Mixed effects versus fixed effects modelling of binary data with inter-subject variability.

PubMed

Murphy, Valda; Dunne, Adrian

2005-04-01

The question of whether or not a mixed effects model is required when modelling binary data with inter-subject variability and within subject correlation was reported in this journal by Yano et al. (J. Pharmacokin. Pharmacodyn. 28:389-412 [2001]). That report used simulation experiments to demonstrate that, under certain circumstances, the use of a fixed effects model produced more accurate estimates of the fixed effect parameters than those produced by a mixed effects model. The Laplace approximation to the likelihood was used when fitting the mixed effects model. This paper repeats one of those simulation experiments, with two binary observations recorded for every subject, and uses both the Laplace and the adaptive Gaussian quadrature approximations to the likelihood when fitting the mixed effects model. The results show that the estimates produced using the Laplace approximation include a small number of extreme outliers. This was not the case when using the adaptive Gaussian quadrature approximation. Further examination of these outliers shows that they arise in situations in which the Laplace approximation seriously overestimates the likelihood in an extreme region of the parameter space. It is also demonstrated that when the number of observations per subject is increased from two to three, the estimates based on the Laplace approximation no longer include any extreme outliers. The root mean squared error is a combination of the bias and the variability of the estimates. Increasing the sample size is known to reduce the variability of an estimator with a consequent reduction in its root mean squared error. The estimates based on the fixed effects model are inherently biased and this bias acts as a lower bound for the root mean squared error of these estimates. Consequently, it might be expected that for data sets with a greater number of subjects the estimates based on the mixed effects model would be more accurate than those based on the fixed effects model. This is borne out by the results of a further simulation experiment with an increased number of subjects in each set of data. The difference in the interpretation of the parameters of the fixed and mixed effects models is discussed. It is demonstrated that the mixed effects model and parameter estimates can be used to estimate the parameters of the fixed effects model but not vice versa.

GROUNDWARS 4.2 Reference Guide

DTIC Science & Technology

1991-12-01

land duel , homogeneous forces, TANKWARS, target acquisition, combat survivability 19. ABSTRACT (Continue on reverse if necessary and identify by block...number) GROUNDWARS is a stochastic, two-sided, event-sequenced weapon systems effectiveness model which provides the results of a land duel between two...GROUNDWARS 4.2 REFERENCE GUIDE I. INTRODUCTION Groundwars is a weapon systems effectiveness model which provides the results of a land duel between

Affective Predictors of the Effectiveness of Training Moderated by the Cognitive Complexity of Expected Competencies

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pilati, Ronaldo; Borges-Andrade, Jairo Eduardo

2008-01-01

Research in training, development and education (TD&E) in organizations has produced important results in the last two decades. Evaluation of TD&E has been a special focus of this research, which has resulted in the production of relevant predictive models. The present study has the aim of testing a model of effectiveness of training on…

Modeling for Policy Change: A Feedback Perspective on Improving the Effectiveness of Coastal and Marine Management

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Robadue, Donald D., Jr.

2012-01-01

Those advocating for effective management of the use of coastal areas and ecosystems have long aspired for an approach to governance that includes information systems with the capability to predict the end results of various courses of action, monitor the impacts of decisions and compare results with those predicted by computer models in order to…

Use of simulation tools to illustrate the effect of data management practices for low and negative plate counts on the estimated parameters of microbial reduction models.

PubMed

Garcés-Vega, Francisco; Marks, Bradley P

2014-08-01

In the last 20 years, the use of microbial reduction models has expanded significantly, including inactivation (linear and nonlinear), survival, and transfer models. However, a major constraint for model development is the impossibility to directly quantify the number of viable microorganisms below the limit of detection (LOD) for a given study. Different approaches have been used to manage this challenge, including ignoring negative plate counts, using statistical estimations, or applying data transformations. Our objective was to illustrate and quantify the effect of negative plate count data management approaches on parameter estimation for microbial reduction models. Because it is impossible to obtain accurate plate counts below the LOD, we performed simulated experiments to generate synthetic data for both log-linear and Weibull-type microbial reductions. We then applied five different, previously reported data management practices and fit log-linear and Weibull models to the resulting data. The results indicated a significant effect (α = 0.05) of the data management practices on the estimated model parameters and performance indicators. For example, when the negative plate counts were replaced by the LOD for log-linear data sets, the slope of the subsequent log-linear model was, on average, 22% smaller than for the original data, the resulting model underpredicted lethality by up to 2.0 log, and the Weibull model was erroneously selected as the most likely correct model for those data. The results demonstrate that it is important to explicitly report LODs and related data management protocols, which can significantly affect model results, interpretation, and utility. Ultimately, we recommend using only the positive plate counts to estimate model parameters for microbial reduction curves and avoiding any data value substitutions or transformations when managing negative plate counts to yield the most accurate model parameters.

Solid propellant rocket motor internal ballistics performance variation analysis, phase 3

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sforzini, R. H.; Foster, W. A., Jr.; Murph, J. E.; Adams, G. W., Jr.

1977-01-01

Results of research aimed at improving the predictability of off nominal internal ballistics performance of solid propellant rocket motors (SRMs) including thrust imbalance between two SRMs firing in parallel are reported. The potential effects of nozzle throat erosion on internal ballistic performance were studied and a propellant burning rate low postulated. The propellant burning rate model when coupled with the grain deformation model permits an excellent match between theoretical results and test data for the Titan IIIC, TU455.02, and the first Space Shuttle SRM (DM-1). Analysis of star grain deformation using an experimental model and a finite element model shows the star grain deformation effects for the Space Shuttle to be small in comparison to those of the circular perforated grain. An alternative technique was developed for predicting thrust imbalance without recourse to the Monte Carlo computer program. A scaling relationship used to relate theoretical results to test results may be applied to the alternative technique of predicting thrust imbalance or to the Monte Carlo evaluation. Extended investigation into the effect of strain rate on propellant burning rate leads to the conclusion that the thermoelastic effect is generally negligible for both steadily increasing pressure loads and oscillatory loads.

Effective equations governing an active poroelastic medium

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

In this work, we consider the spatial homogenization of a coupled transport and fluid–structure interaction model, to the end of deriving a system of effective equations describing the flow, elastic deformation and transport in an active poroelastic medium. The ‘active’ nature of the material results from a morphoelastic response to a chemical stimulant, in which the growth time scale is strongly separated from other elastic time scales. The resulting effective model is broadly relevant to the study of biological tissue growth, geophysical flows (e.g. swelling in coals and clays) and a wide range of industrial applications (e.g. absorbant hygiene products). The key contribution of this work is the derivation of a system of homogenized partial differential equations describing macroscale growth, coupled to transport of solute, that explicitly incorporates details of the structure and dynamics of the microscopic system, and, moreover, admits finite growth and deformation at the pore scale. The resulting macroscale model comprises a Biot-type system, augmented with additional terms pertaining to growth, coupled to an advection–reaction–diffusion equation. The resultant system of effective equations is then compared with other recent models under a selection of appropriate simplifying asymptotic limits. PMID:28293138

Effect of space flight on interferon production - mechanistic studies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sonnenfeld, Gerald

1991-01-01

Ground-based models were studied for the effects of space flight on immune responses. Most time was spent on the model for the antiorthostatic, hypokinetic, hypodynamic suspension model for rats. Results indicate that suspension is useful for modeling the effects of spaceflight on functional immune responses, such as interferon and interleukin production. It does not appear to be useful for modeling shifts in leukocyte sub-populations. Calcium and 1,25-dihydroxyvitamin D sub 3 appear to play a pivitol role in regulating shifts in immune responses due to suspension. The macrophage appears to be an important target cell for the effects of suspension on immune responses.

Modeling Resources Allocation in Attacker-Defender Games with "Warm Up" CSF.

PubMed

Guan, Peiqiu; Zhuang, Jun

2016-04-01

Like many other engineering investments, the attacker's and defender's investments may have limited impact without initial capital to "warm up" the systems. This article studies such "warm up" effects on both the attack and defense equilibrium strategies in a sequential-move game model by developing a class of novel and more realistic contest success functions. We first solve a single-target attacker-defender game analytically and provide numerical solutions to a multiple-target case. We compare the results of the models with and without consideration of the investment "warm up" effects, and find that the defender would suffer higher expected damage, and either underestimate the attacker effort or waste defense investment if the defender falsely believes that no investment "warm up" effects exist. We illustrate the model results with real data, and compare the results of the models with and without consideration of the correlation between the "warm up" threshold and the investment effectiveness. Interestingly, we find that the defender is suggested to give up defending all the targets when the attack or the defense "warm up" thresholds are sufficiently high. This article provides new insights and suggestions on policy implications for homeland security resource allocation. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

Use of output from high-resolution atmospheric models in landscape-scale hydrologic models: An assessment

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hostetler, S.W.; Giorgi, F.

1993-01-01

In this paper we investigate the feasibility of coupling regional climate models (RCMs) with landscape-scale hydrologic models (LSHMs) for studies of the effects of climate on hydrologic systems. The RCM used is the National Center for Atmospheric Research/Pennsylvania State University mesoscale model (MM4). Output from two year-round simulations (1983 and 1988) over the western United States is used to drive a lake model for Pyramid Lake in Nevada and a streamfiow model for Steamboat Creek in Oregon. Comparisons with observed data indicate that MM4 is able to produce meteorologic data sets that can be used to drive hydrologic models. Results from the lake model simulations indicate that the use of MM4 output produces reasonably good predictions of surface temperature and evaporation. Results from the streamflow simulations indicate that the use of MM4 output results in good simulations of the seasonal cycle of streamflow, but deficiencies in simulated wintertime precipitation resulted in underestimates of streamflow and soil moisture. Further work with climate (multiyear) simulations is necessary to achieve a complete analysis, but the results from this study indicate that coupling of LSHMs and RCMs may be a useful approach for evaluating the effects of climate change on hydrologic systems.

A mathematical approach for evaluating Markov models in continuous time without discrete-event simulation.

PubMed

van Rosmalen, Joost; Toy, Mehlika; O'Mahony, James F

2013-08-01

Markov models are a simple and powerful tool for analyzing the health and economic effects of health care interventions. These models are usually evaluated in discrete time using cohort analysis. The use of discrete time assumes that changes in health states occur only at the end of a cycle period. Discrete-time Markov models only approximate the process of disease progression, as clinical events typically occur in continuous time. The approximation can yield biased cost-effectiveness estimates for Markov models with long cycle periods and if no half-cycle correction is made. The purpose of this article is to present an overview of methods for evaluating Markov models in continuous time. These methods use mathematical results from stochastic process theory and control theory. The methods are illustrated using an applied example on the cost-effectiveness of antiviral therapy for chronic hepatitis B. The main result is a mathematical solution for the expected time spent in each state in a continuous-time Markov model. It is shown how this solution can account for age-dependent transition rates and discounting of costs and health effects, and how the concept of tunnel states can be used to account for transition rates that depend on the time spent in a state. The applied example shows that the continuous-time model yields more accurate results than the discrete-time model but does not require much computation time and is easily implemented. In conclusion, continuous-time Markov models are a feasible alternative to cohort analysis and can offer several theoretical and practical advantages.

Inferring Fitness Effects from Time-Resolved Sequence Data with a Delay-Deterministic Model.

PubMed

Nené, Nuno R; Dunham, Alistair S; Illingworth, Christopher J R

2018-05-01

A common challenge arising from the observation of an evolutionary system over time is to infer the magnitude of selection acting upon a specific genetic variant, or variants, within the population. The inference of selection may be confounded by the effects of genetic drift in a system, leading to the development of inference procedures to account for these effects. However, recent work has suggested that deterministic models of evolution may be effective in capturing the effects of selection even under complex models of demography, suggesting the more general application of deterministic approaches to inference. Responding to this literature, we here note a case in which a deterministic model of evolution may give highly misleading inferences, resulting from the nondeterministic properties of mutation in a finite population. We propose an alternative approach that acts to correct for this error, and which we denote the delay-deterministic model. Applying our model to a simple evolutionary system, we demonstrate its performance in quantifying the extent of selection acting within that system. We further consider the application of our model to sequence data from an evolutionary experiment. We outline scenarios in which our model may produce improved results for the inference of selection, noting that such situations can be easily identified via the use of a regular deterministic model. Copyright © 2018 Nené et al.

Computational Modeling of Micrometastatic Breast Cancer Radiation Dose Response

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Smith, Daniel L.; Debeb, Bisrat G.; Morgan Welch Inflammatory Breast Cancer Research Program and Clinic, The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas

Purpose: Prophylactic cranial irradiation (PCI) involves giving radiation to the entire brain with the goals of reducing the incidence of brain metastasis and improving overall survival. Experimentally, we have demonstrated that PCI prevents brain metastases in a breast cancer mouse model. We developed a computational model to expand on and aid in the interpretation of our experimental results. Methods and Materials: MATLAB was used to develop a computational model of brain metastasis and PCI in mice. Model input parameters were optimized such that the model output would match the experimental number of metastases per mouse from the unirradiated group. Anmore » independent in vivo–limiting dilution experiment was performed to validate the model. The effect of whole brain irradiation at different measurement points after tumor cells were injected was evaluated in terms of the incidence, number of metastases, and tumor burden and was then compared with the corresponding experimental data. Results: In the optimized model, the correlation between the number of metastases per mouse and the experimental fits was >95. Our attempt to validate the model with a limiting dilution assay produced 99.9% correlation with respect to the incidence of metastases. The model accurately predicted the effect of whole-brain irradiation given 3 weeks after cell injection but substantially underestimated its effect when delivered 5 days after cell injection. The model further demonstrated that delaying whole-brain irradiation until the development of gross disease introduces a dose threshold that must be reached before a reduction in incidence can be realized. Conclusions: Our computational model of mouse brain metastasis and PCI correlated strongly with our experiments with unirradiated mice. The results further suggest that early treatment of subclinical disease is more effective than irradiating established disease.« less

Anisotropic failure and size effects in periodic honeycomb materials: A gradient-elasticity approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Réthoré, Julien; Dang, Thi Bach Tuyet; Kaltenbrunner, Christine

2017-02-01

This paper proposes a fracture mechanics model for the analysis of crack propagation in periodic honeycomb materials. The model is based on gradient-elasticity which enables us to account for the effect of the material structure at the macroscopic scale. For simulating the propagation of cracks along an arbitrary path, the numerical implementation is elaborated based on an extended finite element method with the required level of continuity. The two main features captured by the model are directionality and size effect. The numerical predictions are consistent with experimental results on honeycomb materials but also with results reported in the literature for microstructurally short cracks in metals.

The effects of geometric uncertainties on computational modelling of knee biomechanics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meng, Qingen; Fisher, John; Wilcox, Ruth

2017-08-01

The geometry of the articular components of the knee is an important factor in predicting joint mechanics in computational models. There are a number of uncertainties in the definition of the geometry of cartilage and meniscus, and evaluating the effects of these uncertainties is fundamental to understanding the level of reliability of the models. In this study, the sensitivity of knee mechanics to geometric uncertainties was investigated by comparing polynomial-based and image-based knee models and varying the size of meniscus. The results suggested that the geometric uncertainties in cartilage and meniscus resulting from the resolution of MRI and the accuracy of segmentation caused considerable effects on the predicted knee mechanics. Moreover, even if the mathematical geometric descriptors can be very close to the imaged-based articular surfaces, the detailed contact pressure distribution produced by the mathematical geometric descriptors was not the same as that of the image-based model. However, the trends predicted by the models based on mathematical geometric descriptors were similar to those of the imaged-based models.

On vertical advection truncation errors in terrain-following numerical models: Comparison to a laboratory model for upwelling over submarine canyons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allen, S. E.; Dinniman, M. S.; Klinck, J. M.; Gorby, D. D.; Hewett, A. J.; Hickey, B. M.

2003-01-01

Submarine canyons which indent the continental shelf are frequently regions of steep (up to 45°), three-dimensional topography. Recent observations have delineated the flow over several submarine canyons during 2-4 day long upwelling episodes. Thus upwelling episodes over submarine canyons provide an excellent flow regime for evaluating numerical and physical models. Here we compare a physical and numerical model simulation of an upwelling event over a simplified submarine canyon. The numerical model being evaluated is a version of the S-Coordinate Rutgers University Model (SCRUM). Careful matching between the models is necessary for a stringent comparison. Results show a poor comparison for the homogeneous case due to nonhydrostatic effects in the laboratory model. Results for the stratified case are better but show a systematic difference between the numerical results and laboratory results. This difference is shown not to be due to nonhydrostatic effects. Rather, the difference is due to truncation errors in the calculation of the vertical advection of density in the numerical model. The calculation is inaccurate due to the terrain-following coordinates combined with a strong vertical gradient in density, vertical shear in the horizontal velocity and topography with strong curvature.

The Effect of Integrated Learning Model and Critical Thinking Skill of Science Learning Outcomes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fazriyah, N.; Supriyati, Y.; Rahayu, W.

2017-02-01

This study aimed to determine the effect of integrated learning model and critical thinking skill toward science learning outcomes. The study was conducted in SDN Kemiri Muka 1 Depok in fifth grade school year 2014/2015 using cluster random sampling was done to 80 students. Retrieval of data obtained through tests and analysis by Variance (ANOVA) and two lines with the design treatment by level 2x2. The results showed that: (1) science learning outcomes students that given thematic integrated learning model is higher than in the group of students given fragmented learning model, (2) there is an interaction effect between critical thinking skills with integrated learning model, (3) for students who have high critical thinking skills, science learning outcomes students who given by thematic integrated learning model higher than fragmented learning model and (4) for students who have the ability to think critically low yield higher learning science fragmented model. The results of this study indicate that thematic learning model with critical thinking skills can improve science learning outcomes of students.

Altering state policy: interest group effectiveness among state-level advocacy groups.

PubMed

Hoefer, Richard

2005-07-01

Because social policy making continues to devolve to the state level, social workers should understand how advocacy and policy making occur at that level. Interest groups active in the human services arena were surveyed and data were used to test a model of interest group effectiveness in four states. The independent variables were amount of resources invested, strategy used, relationships with key actors, use of coalitions, and policy positions taken. Results indicate that the model explains low to middling amounts of the variation in group effectiveness. Results also show that the model fits different states to different degrees, indicating that social workers need to approach advocacy in different ways to achieve maximum effectiveness in altering state policy. Implications for altering state policy are provided.

A model of the pre-assessment learning effects of assessment is operational in an undergraduate clinical context

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background No validated model exists to explain the learning effects of assessment, a problem when designing and researching assessment for learning. We recently developed a model explaining the pre-assessment learning effects of summative assessment in a theory teaching context. The challenge now is to validate this model. The purpose of this study was to explore whether the model was operational in a clinical context as a first step in this process. Methods Given the complexity of the model, we adopted a qualitative approach. Data from in-depth interviews with eighteen medical students were subject to content analysis. We utilised a code book developed previously using grounded theory. During analysis, we remained alert to data that might not conform to the coding framework and open to the possibility of deploying inductive coding. Ethical clearance and informed consent were obtained. Results The three components of the model i.e., assessment factors, mechanism factors and learning effects were all evident in the clinical context. Associations between these components could all be explained by the model. Interaction with preceptors was identified as a new subcomponent of assessment factors. The model could explain the interrelationships of the three facets of this subcomponent i.e., regular accountability, personal consequences and emotional valence of the learning environment, with previously described components of the model. Conclusions The model could be utilized to analyse and explain observations in an assessment context different to that from which it was derived. In the clinical setting, the (negative) influence of preceptors on student learning was particularly prominent. In this setting, learning effects resulted not only from the high-stakes nature of summative assessment but also from personal stakes, e.g. for esteem and agency. The results suggest that to influence student learning, consequences should accrue from assessment that are immediate, concrete and substantial. The model could have utility as a planning or diagnostic tool in practice and research settings. PMID:22420839

Cost-effectiveness of vaccination against herpes zoster and postherpetic neuralgia: a critical review.

PubMed

Kawai, Kosuke; Preaud, Emmanuelle; Baron-Papillon, Florence; Largeron, Nathalie; Acosta, Camilo J

2014-03-26

The objective of this study was to systematically review cost-effectiveness studies of vaccination against herpes zoster (HZ) and postherpetic neuralgia (PHN). We searched MEDLINE and EMBASE databases for eligible studies published prior to November 2013. We extracted information regarding model structure, model input parameters, and study results. We compared the results across studies by projecting the health and economic impacts of vaccinating one million adults over their lifetimes. We identified 15 cost-effectiveness studies performed in North America and Europe. Results ranged from approximately US$10,000 to more than US$100,000 per quality-adjusted life years (QALY) gained. Most studies in Europe concluded that zoster vaccination is likely to be cost-effective. Differences in results among studies are largely due to differing assumptions regarding duration of vaccine protection and a loss in quality of life associated with HZ and to a larger extent, PHN. Moreover, vaccine efficacy against PHN, age at vaccination, and vaccine cost strongly influenced the results in sensitivity analyses. Most studies included in this review shows that vaccination against HZ is likely to be cost-effective. Future research addressing key model parameters and cost-effectiveness studies in other parts of the world are needed. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A spatial error model with continuous random effects and an application to growth convergence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Laurini, Márcio Poletti

2017-10-01

We propose a spatial error model with continuous random effects based on Matérn covariance functions and apply this model for the analysis of income convergence processes (β -convergence). The use of a model with continuous random effects permits a clearer visualization and interpretation of the spatial dependency patterns, avoids the problems of defining neighborhoods in spatial econometrics models, and allows projecting the spatial effects for every possible location in the continuous space, circumventing the existing aggregations in discrete lattice representations. We apply this model approach to analyze the economic growth of Brazilian municipalities between 1991 and 2010 using unconditional and conditional formulations and a spatiotemporal model of convergence. The results indicate that the estimated spatial random effects are consistent with the existence of income convergence clubs for Brazilian municipalities in this period.

Effects of microscale inertia on dynamic ductile crack growth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jacques, N.; Mercier, S.; Molinari, A.

2012-04-01

The aim of this paper is to investigate the role of microscale inertia in dynamic ductile crack growth. A constitutive model for porous solids that accounts for dynamic effects due to void growth is proposed. The model has been implemented in a finite element code and simulations of crack growth in a notched bar and in an edge cracked specimen have been performed. Results are compared to predictions obtained via the Gurson-Tvergaard-Needleman (GTN) model where micro-inertia effects are not accounted for. It is found that microscale inertia has a significant influence on the crack growth. In particular, it is shown that micro-inertia plays an important role during the strain localisation process by impeding void growth. Therefore, the resulting damage accumulation occurs in a more progressive manner. For this reason, simulations based on the proposed modelling exhibit much less mesh sensitivity than those based on the viscoplastic GTN model. Microscale inertia is also found to lead to lower crack speeds. Effects of micro-inertia on fracture toughness are evaluated.

Montmorillonite ameliorates hyperthyroidism of rats and mice attributed to its adsorptive effect.

PubMed

Cai, Yan; Meng, Xin-fang; Cao, Yong-xiao; Lu, Hua; Zhu, Shao-fei; Zhou, Liang-zhen

2006-12-03

The present study aims to evaluate the adsorbing effect of montmorillonite on thyroid hormone in the entero-hepatic circulation. The concentration of thyroid hormone in the serum of hyperthyroidism model rats and in solution was measured by radioimmunoassay and ultraviolet spectrometry, respectively. The body weight, temperature, and consumption of food and water were observed in hyperthyroidism model rats. Furthermore, hypoxia tolerance, sodium-pentobarbital-induced sleep time, spontaneous activities were measured on hyperthyroidism model mice after being treated with montmorillonite. Results showed that montmorillonite adsorbed thyroxin (T(4)) and triiodothyronine (T(3)) in vitro. Montmorillonite at dosage of 1.0 g/kg and 0.3 g/kg decreased thyroid hormone levels on hyperthyroidism model rats; Montmorillonite (2.0 g/kg and 0.6 g/kg) prolonged the sleep time, improved the hypoxia tolerant capacity and reduced the spontaneous activities of the hyperthyroidism model mice. These results suggest montmorillonite has anti-hyperthyroidism effect attributed to its adsorptive effect.

The sensitivity of ecosystem service models to choices of input data and spatial resolution

Treesearch

Kenneth J. Bagstad; Erika Cohen; Zachary H. Ancona; Steven. G. McNulty; Ge   Sun

2018-01-01

Although ecosystem service (ES) modeling has progressed rapidly in the last 10–15 years, comparative studies on data and model selection effects have become more common only recently. Such studies have drawn mixed conclusions about whether different data and model choices yield divergent results. In this study, we compared the results of different models to address...

Examining the effect of down regulation under high [CO2] on the growth of soybean assimilating a semi process-based model and FACE data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sakurai, G.; Iizumi, T.; Yokozawa, M.

2011-12-01

The actual impact of elevated [CO2] with the interaction of the other climatic factors on the crop growth is still debated. In many process-based crop models, the response of photosynthesis per single leaf to environmental factors is basically described using the biochemical model of Farquhar et al. (1980). However, the decline in photosynthetic enhancement known as down regulation has not been taken into account. On the other hand, the mechanisms causing photosynthetic down regulation is still unknown, which makes it difficult to include the effect of down regulation into process-based crop models. The current results of Free-air CO2 enrichment (FACE) experiments have reported the effect of down regulation under actual environments. One of the effective approaches to involve these results into future crop yield prediction is developing a semi process-based crop growth model, which includes the effect of photosynthetic down regulation as a statistical model, and assimilating the data obtained in FACE experiments. In this study, we statistically estimated the parameters of a semi process-based model for soybean growth ('SPM-soybean') using a hierarchical Baysian method with the FACE data on soybeans (Morgan et al. 2005). We also evaluated the effect of down regulation on the soybean yield in future climatic conditions. The model selection analysis showed that the effective correction to the overestimation of the Farquhar's biochemical C3 model was to reduce the maximum rate of carboxylation (Vcmax) under elevated [CO2]. However, interestingly, the difference in the estimated final crop yields between the corrected model and the non-corrected model was very slight (Fig.1a) for future projection under climate change scenario (Miroc-ESM). This was due to that the reduction in Vcmax also brought about the reduction of the base dark respiration rate of leaves. Because the dark respiration rate exponentially increases with temperature, the slight difference in base respiration rate becomes a large difference under high temperature under the future climate scenarios. In other words, if the temperature rise is very small or zero under elevated [CO2] condition, the effect of down regulation significantly appears (Fig.1b). This result suggest that further experimental data that considering high CO2 effect and high temperature effect in field conditions should be important and elaborate the model projection of the future crop yield through data assimilation method.

An open-terrain line source model coupled with street-canyon effects to forecast carbon monoxide at traffic roundabout.

PubMed

Pandian, Suresh; Gokhale, Sharad; Ghoshal, Aloke Kumar

2011-02-15

A double-lane four-arm roundabout, where traffic movement is continuous in opposite directions and at different speeds, produces a zone responsible for recirculation of emissions within a road section creating canyon-type effect. In this zone, an effect of thermally induced turbulence together with vehicle wake dominates over wind driven turbulence causing pollutant emission to flow within, resulting into more or less equal amount of pollutants upwind and downwind particularly during low winds. Beyond this region, however, the effect of winds becomes stronger, causing downwind movement of pollutants. Pollutant dispersion caused by such phenomenon cannot be described accurately by open-terrain line source model alone. This is demonstrated by estimating one-minute average carbon monoxide concentration by coupling an open-terrain line source model with a street canyon model which captures the combine effect to describe the dispersion at non-signalized roundabout. The results of the modeling matched well with the measurements compared with the line source model alone and the prediction error reduced by about 50%. The study further demonstrated this with traffic emissions calculated by field and semi-empirical methods. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A probabilistic asteroid impact risk model: assessment of sub-300 m impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mathias, Donovan L.; Wheeler, Lorien F.; Dotson, Jessie L.

2017-06-01

A comprehensive asteroid threat assessment requires the quantification of both the impact likelihood and resulting consequence across the range of possible events. This paper presents a probabilistic asteroid impact risk (PAIR) assessment model developed for this purpose. The model incorporates published impact frequency rates with state-of-the-art consequence assessment tools, applied within a Monte Carlo framework that generates sets of impact scenarios from uncertain input parameter distributions. Explicit treatment of atmospheric entry is included to produce energy deposition rates that account for the effects of thermal ablation and object fragmentation. These energy deposition rates are used to model the resulting ground damage, and affected populations are computed for the sampled impact locations. The results for each scenario are aggregated into a distribution of potential outcomes that reflect the range of uncertain impact parameters, population densities, and strike probabilities. As an illustration of the utility of the PAIR model, the results are used to address the question of what minimum size asteroid constitutes a threat to the population. To answer this question, complete distributions of results are combined with a hypothetical risk tolerance posture to provide the minimum size, given sets of initial assumptions for objects up to 300 m in diameter. Model outputs demonstrate how such questions can be answered and provide a means for interpreting the effect that input assumptions and uncertainty can have on final risk-based decisions. Model results can be used to prioritize investments to gain knowledge in critical areas or, conversely, to identify areas where additional data have little effect on the metrics of interest.

Lagged PM2.5 effects in mortality time series: Critical impact of covariate model

EPA Science Inventory

The two most common approaches to modeling the effects of air pollution on mortality are the Harvard and the Johns Hopkins (NMMAPS) approaches. These two approaches, which use different sets of covariates, result in dissimilar estimates of the effect of lagged fine particulate ma...

Modeling the Effect of Density-Dependent Chemical Interference Upon Seed Germination

PubMed Central

Sinkkonen, Aki

2005-01-01

A mathematical model is presented to estimate the effects of phytochemicals on seed germination. According to the model, phytochemicals tend to prevent germination at low seed densities. The model predicts that at high seed densities they may increase the probability of seed germination and the number of germinating seeds. Hence, the effects are reminiscent of the density-dependent effects of allelochemicals on plant growth, but the involved variables are germination probability and seedling number. The results imply that it should be possible to bypass inhibitory effects of allelopathy in certain agricultural practices and to increase the efficiency of nature conservation in several plant communities. PMID:19330163

Modeling the Effect of Density-Dependent Chemical Interference upon Seed Germination

PubMed Central

Sinkkonen, Aki

2006-01-01

A mathematical model is presented to estimate the effects of phytochemicals on seed germination. According to the model, phytochemicals tend to prevent germination at low seed densities. The model predicts that at high seed densities they may increase the probability of seed germination and the number of germinating seeds. Hence, the effects are reminiscent of the density-dependent effects of allelochemicals on plant growth, but the involved variables are germination probability and seedling number. The results imply that it should be possible to bypass inhibitory effects of allelopathy in certain agricultural practices and to increase the efficiency of nature conservation in several plant communities. PMID:18648596

A study of the effect of space-dependent neutronics on stochastically-induced bifurcations in BWR dynamics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Analytis, G.T.

1995-09-01

A non-linear one-group space-dependent neutronic model for a finite one-dimensional core is coupled with a simple BWR feed-back model. In agreement with results obtained by the authors who originally developed the point-kinetics version of this model, we shall show numerically that stochastic reactivity excitations may result in limit-cycles and eventually in a chaotic behaviour, depending on the magnitude of the feed-back coefficient K. In the framework of this simple space-dependent model, the effect of the non-linearities on the different spatial harmonics is studied and the importance of the space-dependent effects is exemplified and assessed in terms of the importance ofmore » the higher harmonics. It is shown that under certain conditions, when the limit-cycle-type develop, the neutron spectra may exhibit strong space-dependent effects.« less

Prediction of hemoglobin in blood donors using a latent class mixed-effects transition model.

PubMed

Nasserinejad, Kazem; van Rosmalen, Joost; de Kort, Wim; Rizopoulos, Dimitris; Lesaffre, Emmanuel

2016-02-20

Blood donors experience a temporary reduction in their hemoglobin (Hb) value after donation. At each visit, the Hb value is measured, and a too low Hb value leads to a deferral for donation. Because of the recovery process after each donation as well as state dependence and unobserved heterogeneity, longitudinal data of Hb values of blood donors provide unique statistical challenges. To estimate the shape and duration of the recovery process and to predict future Hb values, we employed three models for the Hb value: (i) a mixed-effects models; (ii) a latent-class mixed-effects model; and (iii) a latent-class mixed-effects transition model. In each model, a flexible function was used to model the recovery process after donation. The latent classes identify groups of donors with fast or slow recovery times and donors whose recovery time increases with the number of donations. The transition effect accounts for possible state dependence in the observed data. All models were estimated in a Bayesian way, using data of new entrant donors from the Donor InSight study. Informative priors were used for parameters of the recovery process that were not identified using the observed data, based on results from the clinical literature. The results show that the latent-class mixed-effects transition model fits the data best, which illustrates the importance of modeling state dependence, unobserved heterogeneity, and the recovery process after donation. The estimated recovery time is much longer than the current minimum interval between donations, suggesting that an increase of this interval may be warranted. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Using the QUAIT Model to Effectively Teach Research Methods Curriculum to Master's-Level Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hamilton, Nancy J.; Gitchel, Dent

2017-01-01

Purpose: To apply Slavin's model of effective instruction to teaching research methods to master's-level students. Methods: Barriers to the scientist-practitioner model (student research experience, confidence, and utility value pertaining to research methods as well as faculty research and pedagogical incompetencies) are discussed. Results: The…

External and Internal Representations in the Acquisition and Use of Knowledge: Visualization Effects on Mental Model Construction

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schnotz, Wolfgang; Kurschner, Christian

2008-01-01

This article investigates whether different formats of visualizing information result in different mental models constructed in learning from pictures, whether the different mental models lead to different patterns of performance in subsequently presented tasks, and how these visualization effects can be modified by further external…

Manifest Variable Granger Causality Models for Developmental Research: A Taxonomy

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

von Eye, Alexander; Wiedermann, Wolfgang

2015-01-01

Granger models are popular when it comes to testing hypotheses that relate series of measures causally to each other. In this article, we propose a taxonomy of Granger causality models. The taxonomy results from crossing the four variables Order of Lag, Type of (Contemporaneous) Effect, Direction of Effect, and Segment of Dependent Series…

The study of human venous system dynamics using hybrid computer modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Snyder, M. F.; Rideout, V. C.

1972-01-01

A computer-based model of the cardiovascular system was created emphasizing effects on the systemic venous system. Certain physiological aspects were emphasized: effects of heart rate, tilting, changes in respiration, and leg muscular contractions. The results from the model showed close correlation with findings previously reported in the literature.

Hierarchical model analysis of the Atlantic Flyway Breeding Waterfowl Survey

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sauer, John R.; Zimmerman, Guthrie S.; Klimstra, Jon D.; Link, William A.

2014-01-01

We used log-linear hierarchical models to analyze data from the Atlantic Flyway Breeding Waterfowl Survey. The survey has been conducted by state biologists each year since 1989 in the northeastern United States from Virginia north to New Hampshire and Vermont. Although yearly population estimates from the survey are used by the United States Fish and Wildlife Service for estimating regional waterfowl population status for mallards (Anas platyrhynchos), black ducks (Anas rubripes), wood ducks (Aix sponsa), and Canada geese (Branta canadensis), they are not routinely adjusted to control for time of day effects and other survey design issues. The hierarchical model analysis permits estimation of year effects and population change while accommodating the repeated sampling of plots and controlling for time of day effects in counting. We compared population estimates from the current stratified random sample analysis to population estimates from hierarchical models with alternative model structures that describe year to year changes as random year effects, a trend with random year effects, or year effects modeled as 1-year differences. Patterns of population change from the hierarchical model results generally were similar to the patterns described by stratified random sample estimates, but significant visibility differences occurred between twilight to midday counts in all species. Controlling for the effects of time of day resulted in larger population estimates for all species in the hierarchical model analysis relative to the stratified random sample analysis. The hierarchical models also provided a convenient means of estimating population trend as derived statistics from the analysis. We detected significant declines in mallard and American black ducks and significant increases in wood ducks and Canada geese, a trend that had not been significant for 3 of these 4 species in the prior analysis. We recommend using hierarchical models for analysis of the Atlantic Flyway Breeding Waterfowl Survey.

Choosing Models for Health Care Cost Analyses: Issues of Nonlinearity and Endogeneity

PubMed Central

Garrido, Melissa M; Deb, Partha; Burgess, James F; Penrod, Joan D

2012-01-01

Objective To compare methods of analyzing endogenous treatment effect models for nonlinear outcomes and illustrate the impact of model specification on estimates of treatment effects such as health care costs. Data Sources Secondary data on cost and utilization for inpatients hospitalized in five Veterans Affairs acute care facilities in 2005–2006. Study Design We compare results from analyses with full information maximum simulated likelihood (FIMSL); control function (CF) approaches employing different types and functional forms for the residuals, including the special case of two-stage residual inclusion; and two-stage least squares (2SLS). As an example, we examine the effect of an inpatient palliative care (PC) consultation on direct costs of care per day. Data Collection/Extraction Methods We analyzed data for 3,389 inpatients with one or more life-limiting diseases. Principal Findings The distribution of average treatment effects on the treated and local average treatment effects of a PC consultation depended on model specification. CF and FIMSL estimates were more similar to each other than to 2SLS estimates. CF estimates were sensitive to choice and functional form of residual. Conclusions When modeling cost or other nonlinear data with endogeneity, one should be aware of the impact of model specification and treatment effect choice on results. PMID:22524165

FOG Random Drift Signal Denoising Based on the Improved AR Model and Modified Sage-Husa Adaptive Kalman Filter.

PubMed

Sun, Jin; Xu, Xiaosu; Liu, Yiting; Zhang, Tao; Li, Yao

2016-07-12

In order to reduce the influence of fiber optic gyroscope (FOG) random drift error on inertial navigation systems, an improved auto regressive (AR) model is put forward in this paper. First, based on real-time observations at each restart of the gyroscope, the model of FOG random drift can be established online. In the improved AR model, the FOG measured signal is employed instead of the zero mean signals. Then, the modified Sage-Husa adaptive Kalman filter (SHAKF) is introduced, which can directly carry out real-time filtering on the FOG signals. Finally, static and dynamic experiments are done to verify the effectiveness. The filtering results are analyzed with Allan variance. The analysis results show that the improved AR model has high fitting accuracy and strong adaptability, and the minimum fitting accuracy of single noise is 93.2%. Based on the improved AR(3) model, the denoising method of SHAKF is more effective than traditional methods, and its effect is better than 30%. The random drift error of FOG is reduced effectively, and the precision of the FOG is improved.

Modeling of Turbulence Effect on Liquid Jet Atomization

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Trinh, H. P.

2007-01-01

Recent studies indicate that turbulence behaviors within a liquid jet have considerable effect on the atomization process. Such turbulent flow phenomena are encountered in most practical applications of common liquid spray devices. This research aims to model the effects of turbulence occurring inside a cylindrical liquid jet to its atomization process. The two widely used atomization models Kelvin-Helmholtz (KH) instability of Reitz and the Taylor analogy breakup (TAB) of O'Rourke and Amsden portraying primary liquid jet disintegration and secondary droplet breakup, respectively, are examined. Additional terms are formulated and appropriately implemented into these two models to account for the turbulence effect. Results for the flow conditions examined in this study indicate that the turbulence terms are significant in comparison with other terms in the models. In the primary breakup regime, the turbulent liquid jet tends to break up into large drops while its intact core is slightly shorter than those without turbulence. In contrast, the secondary droplet breakup with the inside liquid turbulence consideration produces smaller drops. Computational results indicate that the proposed models provide predictions that agree reasonably well with available measured data.

How to use the Standard Model effective field theory

DOE PAGES

Henning, Brian; Lu, Xiaochuan; Murayama, Hitoshi

2016-01-06

Here, we present a practical three-step procedure of using the Standard Model effective field theory (SM EFT) to connect ultraviolet (UV) models of new physics with weak scale precision observables. With this procedure, one can interpret precision measurements as constraints on a given UV model. We give a detailed explanation for calculating the effective action up to one-loop order in a manifestly gauge covariant fashion. This covariant derivative expansion method dramatically simplifies the process of matching a UV model with the SM EFT, and also makes available a universal formalism that is easy to use for a variety of UVmore » models. A few general aspects of RG running effects and choosing operator bases are discussed. Finally, we provide mapping results between the bosonic sector of the SM EFT and a complete set of precision electroweak and Higgs observables to which present and near future experiments are sensitive. Many results and tools which should prove useful to those wishing to use the SM EFT are detailed in several appendices.« less

A review of helium–hydrogen synergistic effects in radiation damage observed in fusion energy steels and an interaction model to guide future understanding

DOE PAGES

Marian, Jaime; Hoang, Tuan; Fluss, Michael; ...

2014-12-29

Here, under fusion reactor conditions, large quantities of irradiation defects and transmutation gases are produced per unit time by neutrons, resulting in accelerated degradation of structural candidate ferritic (F) and ferritic/martensitic (F/M) steels. Due to the lack of a suitable fusion neutron testing facility, we must rely on high-dose-rate ion-beam experiments and present-day crude modeling estimates. Of particular interest is the possibility of synergistic (positive feedback) effects on materials properties due to the simultaneous action of He, H, and displacement damage (dpa) during operation. In this paper we discuss the state-of-the-art in terms of the experimental understanding of synergistic effectsmore » and carry out simulations of triple-species irradiation under ion-beam conditions using first-of-its-kind modeling techniques. Although, state-of-the-art modeling and simulation is not sufficiently well developed to shed light on the experimental uncertainties, we are able to conclude that it is not clear whether synergistic effects, the evidence of which is still not conclusive, will ultimately play a critical role in material performance under fusion energy conditions. We review here some of the evidence for the synergistic effects of hydrogen in the presence of helium and displacement damage, and also include some recent data from our research. While the experimental results to date suggest possible mechanisms for the observed synergistic effects, it is only with more advanced modeling that we can hope to understand the details underlying the experimental observations. By employing modeling and simulation we propose an interaction model that is qualitatively consistent with experimental observations of dpa/He/H irradiation behavior. Our modeling, the results of which should be helpful to researchers going forward, points to gaps and voids in the current understanding of triple ion-beam irradiation effects (displacement damage produced simultaneously with helium and hydrogen implantation) and the synergistic effects of hydrogen.« less

VDT microplane model with anisotropic effectiveness and plasticity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benelfellah, Abdelkibir; Gratton, Michel; Caliez, Michael; Frachon, Arnaud; Picart, Didier

2018-03-01

The opening-closing state of the microcracks is a kinematic phenomenon usually modeled using a set of damage effectiveness variables, which results in different elastic responses for the same damage level. In this work, the microplane model with volumetric, deviatoric and tangential decomposition denoted V-D-T is modified. The influence of the confining pressure is taken into account in the damage variables evolution laws. For a better understanding of the mechanisms introduced into the model, the damage rosettes are presented for a strain given level. The model is confirmed through comparisons of the simulations with the experimental results of monotonic, and cyclic tensile and compressive testing with different levels of confining pressure.

Investigation of rail irregularity effects on wheel/rail dynamic force in slab track: Comparison of two and three dimensional models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sadeghi, Javad; Khajehdezfuly, Amin; Esmaeili, Morteza; Poorveis, Davood

2016-07-01

Rail irregularity is one of the most significant load amplification factors in railway track systems. In this paper, the capability and effectiveness of the two main railway slab tracks modeling techniques in prediction of the influences of rail irregularities on the Wheel/Rail Dynamic Force (WRDF) were investigated. For this purpose, two 2D and 3D numerical models of vehicle/discontinuous slab track interaction were developed. The validation of the numerical models was made by comparing the results of the models with those obtained from comprehensive field tests carried out in this research. The effects of the harmonic and non-harmonic rail irregularities on the WRDF obtained from 3D and 2D models were investigated. The results indicate that the difference between WRDF obtained from 2D and 3D models is negligible when the irregularities on the right and left rails are the same. However, as the difference between irregularities of the right and left rails increases, the results obtained from 2D and 3D models are considerably different. The results indicate that 2D models have limitations in prediction of WRDF; that is, a 3D modeling technique is required to predict WRDF when there is uneven or non-harmonic irregularity with large amplitudes. The size and extent of the influences of rail irregularities on the wheel/rail forces were discussed leading to provide a better understanding of the rail-wheel contact behavior and the required techniques for predicting WRDF.

3D model retrieval method based on mesh segmentation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gan, Yuanchao; Tang, Yan; Zhang, Qingchen

2012-04-01

In the process of feature description and extraction, current 3D model retrieval algorithms focus on the global features of 3D models but ignore the combination of global and local features of the model. For this reason, they show less effective performance to the models with similar global shape and different local shape. This paper proposes a novel algorithm for 3D model retrieval based on mesh segmentation. The key idea is to exact the structure feature and the local shape feature of 3D models, and then to compares the similarities of the two characteristics and the total similarity between the models. A system that realizes this approach was built and tested on a database of 200 objects and achieves expected results. The results show that the proposed algorithm improves the precision and the recall rate effectively.

Plasma sheath effects on ion collection by a pinhole

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Herr, Joel L.; Snyder, David B.

1993-01-01

This work presents tables to assist in the evaluation of pinhole collection effects on spacecraft. These tables summarize results of a computer model which tracks particle trajectories through a simplified electric field in the plasma sheath. A technique is proposed to account for plasma sheath effects in the application of these results and scaling rules are proposed to apply the calculations to specific situations. This model is compared to ion current measurements obtained by another worker, and the agreement is very good.

Orientation influence on grain size-effects in ultrafine-grained magnesium

DOE PAGES

Fan, Haidong; Aubry, Sylvie; Arsenlis, A.; ...

2014-11-08

The mechanical behavior of ultrafine-grained magnesium was studied by discrete dislocation dynamics (DDD) simulations. Our results show basal slip yields a strong size effect, while prismatic and pyramidal slips produce a weak one. We developed a new size-strength model that considers dislocation transmission across grain boundaries. Good agreement between this model, current DDD simulations and previous experiments is observed. These results reveal that the grain size effect depends on 3 factors: Peierls stress, dislocation source strength and grain boundary strength.

Tri-critical behavior of the Blume-Emery-Griffiths model on a Kagomé lattice: Effective-field theory and Rigorous bounds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santos, Jander P.; Sá Barreto, F. C.

2016-01-01

Spin correlation identities for the Blume-Emery-Griffiths model on Kagomé lattice are derived and combined with rigorous correlation inequalities lead to upper bounds on the critical temperature. From the spin correlation identities the mean field approximation and the effective field approximation results for the magnetization, the critical frontiers and the tricritical points are obtained. The rigorous upper bounds on the critical temperature improve over those effective-field type theories results.

Risk estimation using probability machines

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Logistic regression has been the de facto, and often the only, model used in the description and analysis of relationships between a binary outcome and observed features. It is widely used to obtain the conditional probabilities of the outcome given predictors, as well as predictor effect size estimates using conditional odds ratios. Results We show how statistical learning machines for binary outcomes, provably consistent for the nonparametric regression problem, can be used to provide both consistent conditional probability estimation and conditional effect size estimates. Effect size estimates from learning machines leverage our understanding of counterfactual arguments central to the interpretation of such estimates. We show that, if the data generating model is logistic, we can recover accurate probability predictions and effect size estimates with nearly the same efficiency as a correct logistic model, both for main effects and interactions. We also propose a method using learning machines to scan for possible interaction effects quickly and efficiently. Simulations using random forest probability machines are presented. Conclusions The models we propose make no assumptions about the data structure, and capture the patterns in the data by just specifying the predictors involved and not any particular model structure. So they do not run the same risks of model mis-specification and the resultant estimation biases as a logistic model. This methodology, which we call a “risk machine”, will share properties from the statistical machine that it is derived from. PMID:24581306

Niche harmony search algorithm for detecting complex disease associated high-order SNP combinations.

PubMed

Tuo, Shouheng; Zhang, Junying; Yuan, Xiguo; He, Zongzhen; Liu, Yajun; Liu, Zhaowen

2017-09-14

Genome-wide association study is especially challenging in detecting high-order disease-causing models due to model diversity, possible low or even no marginal effect of the model, and extraordinary search and computations. In this paper, we propose a niche harmony search algorithm where joint entropy is utilized as a heuristic factor to guide the search for low or no marginal effect model, and two computationally lightweight scores are selected to evaluate and adapt to diverse of disease models. In order to obtain all possible suspected pathogenic models, niche technique merges with HS, which serves as a taboo region to avoid HS trapping into local search. From the resultant set of candidate SNP-combinations, we use G-test statistic for testing true positives. Experiments were performed on twenty typical simulation datasets in which 12 models are with marginal effect and eight ones are with no marginal effect. Our results indicate that the proposed algorithm has very high detection power for searching suspected disease models in the first stage and it is superior to some typical existing approaches in both detection power and CPU runtime for all these datasets. Application to age-related macular degeneration (AMD) demonstrates our method is promising in detecting high-order disease-causing models.

Results from using a new dyadic-dependence model to analyze sociocentric physician networks.

PubMed

Paul, Sudeshna; Keating, Nancy L; Landon, Bruce E; O'Malley, A James

2014-09-01

Professional physician networks can potentially influence clinical practices and quality of care. With the current focus on coordinated care, discerning influences of naturally occurring clusters and other forms of dependence among physicians' relationships based on their attributes and care patterns is an important area of research. In this paper, two directed physician networks: a physician influential conversation network (N = 33) and a physician network obtained from patient visit data (N = 135) are analyzed using a new model that accounts for effect modification of the within-dyad effect of reciprocity and inter-dyad effects involving three (or more) actors. The results from this model include more nuanced effects involving reciprocity and triadic dependence than under incumbent models and more flexible control for these effects in the extraction of other network phenomena, including the relationship between similarity of individuals' attributes (e.g., same-gender, same residency location) and tie-status. In both cases we find extensive evidence of clustering and triadic dependence that if not accounted for confounds the effect of reciprocity and attribute homophily. Findings from our analysis suggest alternative conclusions to those from incumbent models. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Grain growth in nanocrystalline iron and Fe-Al alloys

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mirzadeh, Hamed; Zomorodian, Amir

2010-02-01

The effects of the annealing temperature and time, cryomilling in liquid nitrogen, and the addition of aluminum powder on the thermal stability and grain growth behavior of nanocrystalline iron were modeled using the Artificial Neural Network (ANN) technique. The developed model can be used as a guide for the quantification of the grain growth by considering the effects of annealing temperature and time. The model also quantified the effect of Al on the thermal stability of cryomilled nanocrystalline Fe. The model results showed that the cryomilling of Fe has a tangible effect on the stabilization of the nanostructure.

Millimeter wave satellite communication studies. Results of the 1981 propagation modeling effort

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stutzman, W. L.; Tsolakis, A.; Dishman, W. K.

1982-01-01

Theoretical modeling associated with rain effects on millimeter wave propagation is detailed. Three areas of work are discussed. A simple model for prediction of rain attenuation is developed and evaluated. A method for computing scattering from single rain drops is presented. A complete multiple scattering model is described which permits accurate calculation of the effects on dual polarized signals passing through rain.

Animal Models and Bone Histomorphometry: Translational Research for the Human Research Program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sibonga, Jean D.

2010-01-01

This slide presentation reviews the use of animal models to research and inform bone morphology, in particular relating to human research in bone loss as a result of low gravity environments. Reasons for use of animal models as tools for human research programs include: time-efficient, cost-effective, invasive measures, and predictability as some model are predictive for drug effects.

Effects of replicative fitness on competing HIV strains.

PubMed

Chirove, Faraimunashe; Lungu, Edward M

2013-07-01

We develop an n-strain model to show the effects of replicative fitness of competing viral strains exerting selective density-dependant infective pressure on each other. A two strain model is used to illustrate the results. A perturbation technique and numerical simulations were used to establish the existence and stability of steady states. More than one infected steady states governed by the replicative fitness resulted from the model exhibiting either strain replacement or co-infection. We found that the presence of two or more HIV strains could result in a disease-free state that, in general, is not globally stable. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Networks of volatility spillovers among stock markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baumöhl, Eduard; Kočenda, Evžen; Lyócsa, Štefan; Výrost, Tomáš

2018-01-01

In our network analysis of 40 developed, emerging and frontier stock markets during the 2006-2014 period, we describe and model volatility spillovers during both the global financial crisis and tranquil periods. The resulting market interconnectedness is depicted by fitting a spatial model incorporating several exogenous characteristics. We document the presence of significant temporal proximity effects between markets and somewhat weaker temporal effects with regard to the US equity market - volatility spillovers decrease when markets are characterized by greater temporal proximity. Volatility spillovers also present a high degree of interconnectedness, which is measured by high spatial autocorrelation. This finding is confirmed by spatial regression models showing that indirect effects are much stronger than direct effects; i.e., market-related changes in 'neighboring' markets (within a network) affect volatility spillovers more than changes in the given market alone, suggesting that spatial effects simply cannot be ignored when modeling stock market relationships. Our results also link spillovers of escalating magnitude with increasing market size, market liquidity and economic openness.

IN VIVO ANTI-INFLAMMATORY EFFECTS OF TARAXASTEROL AGAINST ANIMAL MODELS

PubMed Central

Wang, Ying; Li, Guan-Hao; Liu, Xin-Yu; Xu, Lu; Wang, Sha-Sha; Zhang, Xue-Mei

2017-01-01

Background: Traditional Chinese medicine Taraxacum officinale has been widely used to treat various inflammatory diseases. Taraxasterol is one of the main active components isolated from Taraxacum officinale. Recently, we have demonstrated that taraxasterol has the in vitro anti-inflammatory effects. This study aims to determine the in vivo anti-inflammatory effects of taraxasterol against animal models. Materials and Methods: Anti-inflammatory effects were assessed in four animal models by using dimethylbenzene-induced mouse ear edema, carrageenan-induced rat paw edema, acetic acid-induced mouse vascular permeability and cotton pellet-induced rat granuloma tests. Results: Our results demonstrated that taraxasterol dose-dependently attenuated dimethylbenzene-induced mouse ear edema and carrageenan-induced rat paw edema, decreased acetic acid-induced mouse vascular permeability and inhibited cotton pellet-induced rat granuloma formation. Conclusion: Our finding indicates that taraxasterol has obvious in vivo anti-inflammatory effects against animal models. It will provide experimental evidences for the traditional use of Taraxacum officinale and taraxasterol in inflammatory diseases. PMID:28480383

Effects of macromolecular crowding on biochemical reaction equilibria: a molecular thermodynamic perspective.

PubMed

Hu, Zhongqiao; Jiang, Jianwen; Rajagopalan, Raj

2007-09-01

A molecular thermodynamic model is developed to investigate the effects of macromolecular crowding on biochemical reactions. Three types of reactions, representing protein folding/conformational isomerization, coagulation/coalescence, and polymerization/association, are considered. The reactants, products, and crowders are modeled as coarse-grained spherical particles or as polymer chains, interacting through hard-sphere interactions with or without nonbonded square-well interactions, and the effects of crowder size and chain length as well as product size are examined. The results predicted by this model are consistent with experimentally observed crowding effects based on preferential binding or preferential exclusion of the crowders. Although simple hard-core excluded-volume arguments do in general predict the qualitative aspects of the crowding effects, the results show that other intermolecular interactions can substantially alter the extent of enhancement or reduction of the equilibrium and can even change the direction of the shift. An advantage of the approach presented here is that competing reactions can be incorporated within the model.

A genome-wide survey of transgenerational genetic effects in autism.

PubMed

Tsang, Kathryn M; Croen, Lisa A; Torres, Anthony R; Kharrazi, Martin; Delorenze, Gerald N; Windham, Gayle C; Yoshida, Cathleen K; Zerbo, Ousseny; Weiss, Lauren A

2013-01-01

Effects of parental genotype or parent-offspring genetic interaction are well established in model organisms for a variety of traits. However, these transgenerational genetic models are rarely studied in humans. We have utilized an autism case-control study with 735 mother-child pairs to perform genome-wide screening for maternal genetic effects and maternal-offspring genetic interaction. We used simple models of single locus parent-child interaction and identified suggestive results (P<10(-4)) that cannot be explained by main effects, but no genome-wide significant signals. Some of these maternal and maternal-child associations were in or adjacent to autism candidate genes including: PCDH9, FOXP1, GABRB3, NRXN1, RELN, MACROD2, FHIT, RORA, CNTN4, CNTNAP2, FAM135B, LAMA1, NFIA, NLGN4X, RAPGEF4, and SDK1. We attempted validation of potential autism association under maternal-specific models using maternal-paternal comparison in family-based GWAS datasets. Our results suggest that further study of parental genetic effects and parent-child interaction in autism is warranted.

Progesterone Treatment in Two Rat Models of Ocular Ischemia

PubMed Central

Allen, Rachael S.; Olsen, Timothy W.; Sayeed, Iqbal; Cale, Heather A.; Morrison, Katherine C.; Oumarbaeva, Yuliya; Lucaciu, Irina; Boatright, Jeffrey H.; Pardue, Machelle T.; Stein, Donald G.

2015-01-01

Purpose. To determine whether the neurosteroid progesterone, shown to have protective effects in animal models of traumatic brain injury, stroke, and spinal cord injury, is also protective in ocular ischemia animal models. Methods. Progesterone treatment was tested in two ocular ischemia models in rats: a rodent anterior ischemic optic neuropathy (rAION) model, which induces permanent monocular optic nerve stroke, and the middle cerebral artery occlusion (MCAO) model, which causes transient ischemia in both the retina and brain due to an intraluminal filament that blocks the ophthalmic and middle cerebral arteries. Visual function and retinal histology were assessed to determine whether progesterone attenuated retinal injury in these models. Additionally, behavioral testing and 2% 2,3,5-triphenyltetrazolium chloride (TTC) staining in brains were used to compare progesterone's neuroprotective effects in both retina and brain using the MCAO model. Results. Progesterone treatment showed no effect on visual evoked potential (VEP) reduction and retinal ganglion cell loss in the permanent rAION model. In the transient MCAO model, progesterone treatment reduced (1) electroretinogram (ERG) deficits, (2) MCAO-induced upregulation of glutamine synthetase (GS) and glial fibrillary acidic protein (GFAP), and (3) retinal ganglion cell loss. As expected, progesterone treatment also had significant protective effects in behavioral tests and a reduction in infarct size in the brain. Conclusions. Progesterone treatment showed protective effects in the retina following MCAO but not rAION injury, which may result from mechanistic differences with injury type and the therapeutic action of progesterone. PMID:26024074

[Primary branch size of Pinus koraiensis plantation: a prediction based on linear mixed effect model].

PubMed

Dong, Ling-Bo; Liu, Zhao-Gang; Li, Feng-Ri; Jiang, Li-Chun

2013-09-01

By using the branch analysis data of 955 standard branches from 60 sampled trees in 12 sampling plots of Pinus koraiensis plantation in Mengjiagang Forest Farm in Heilongjiang Province of Northeast China, and based on the linear mixed-effect model theory and methods, the models for predicting branch variables, including primary branch diameter, length, and angle, were developed. Considering tree effect, the MIXED module of SAS software was used to fit the prediction models. The results indicated that the fitting precision of the models could be improved by choosing appropriate random-effect parameters and variance-covariance structure. Then, the correlation structures including complex symmetry structure (CS), first-order autoregressive structure [AR(1)], and first-order autoregressive and moving average structure [ARMA(1,1)] were added to the optimal branch size mixed-effect model. The AR(1) improved the fitting precision of branch diameter and length mixed-effect model significantly, but all the three structures didn't improve the precision of branch angle mixed-effect model. In order to describe the heteroscedasticity during building mixed-effect model, the CF1 and CF2 functions were added to the branch mixed-effect model. CF1 function improved the fitting effect of branch angle mixed model significantly, whereas CF2 function improved the fitting effect of branch diameter and length mixed model significantly. Model validation confirmed that the mixed-effect model could improve the precision of prediction, as compare to the traditional regression model for the branch size prediction of Pinus koraiensis plantation.

The effect of perceived stress on the relationship between perfectionism and burnout in coaches.

PubMed

Tashman, Lauren S; Tenenbaum, Gershon; Eklund, Robert

2010-01-01

The effects of perceived stress (PS) on the relationship between adaptive and maladaptive forms of perfectionism and burnout were examined. Smith's (1986)stress appraisal model and Kelley, Eklund, and Ritter-Taylor's (1999) model of coach burnout were used to test two models of burnout in a sample of college coaches (N=177). The results indicated that there is an indirect effect of self-evaluative perfectionism (i.e., maladaptive form of perfectionism) on burnout through PS as well as a significant direct link to burnout, accounting for 56% of its variance. In contrast, conscientious perfectionism (CP) (i.e., adaptive perfectionism) did not directly impact burnout, nor was there an indirect effect through PS. Based on Lazarus's (1999) ideas about stress appraisal, the results suggested that maladaptive forms of perfectionism resulted in more threatening perceptions of stress, thus, potentially leading to the experience of burnout. However, adaptive forms of perfectionism did not seem to result in increased appraisals of stress or result in burnout. The results did indicate a significant correlation between the two forms of perfectionism, which may explain why CP did not significantly impact PS or burnout.

Evaluating disease management programme effectiveness: an introduction to instrumental variables.

PubMed

Linden, Ariel; Adams, John L

2006-04-01

This paper introduces the concept of instrumental variables (IVs) as a means of providing an unbiased estimate of treatment effects in evaluating disease management (DM) programme effectiveness. Model development is described using zip codes as the IV. Three diabetes DM outcomes were evaluated: annual diabetes costs, emergency department (ED) visits and hospital days. Both ordinary least squares (OLS) and IV estimates showed a significant treatment effect for diabetes costs (P = 0.011) but neither model produced a significant treatment effect for ED visits. However, the IV estimate showed a significant treatment effect for hospital days (P = 0.006) whereas the OLS model did not. These results illustrate the utility of IV estimation when the OLS model is sensitive to the confounding effect of hidden bias.

Sensitivity of effective rainfall amount to land use description using GIS tool. Case of a small mediterranean catchment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Payraudeau, S.; Tournoud, M. G.; Cernesson, F.

Distributed modelling in hydrology assess catchment subdivision to take into account physic characteristics. In this paper, we test the effect of land use aggregation scheme on catchment hydrological response. Evolution of intra-subcatchment land use is studied using statistic and entropy methods. The SCS-CN method is used to calculate effective rainfall which is here assimilated to hydrological response. Our purpose is to determine the existence of a critical threshold-area appropriate for the application of hydrological modelling. Land use aggregation effects on effective rainfall is assessed on small mediterranean catchment. The results show that land use aggregation and land use classification type have significant effects on hydrological modelling and in particular on effective rainfall modelling.

The spatial impact of neighbouring on the exports activities of COMESA countries by using spatial panel models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamzalouh, L.; Ismail, M. T.; Rahman, R. A.

2017-09-01

In this paper, spatial panel models were used and the method for selecting the best model amongst the spatial fixed effects model and the spatial random effects model to estimate the fitting model by using the robust Hausman test for analysis of the exports pattern of the Common Market for Eastern and Southern African (COMESA) countries. And examine the effects of the interactions of the economic statistic of explanatory variables on the exports of the COMESA. Results indicated that the spatial Durbin model with fixed effects specification should be tested and considered in most cases of this study. After that, the direct and indirect effects among COMESA regions were assessed, and the role of indirect spatial effects in estimating exports was empirically demonstrated. Regarding originality and research value, and to the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first attempt to examine exports between COMESA and its member countries through spatial panel models using XSMLE, which is a new command for spatial analysis using STATA.

Assessing the Dynamic Effects of Climate on Individual Tree Growth Across Time and Space

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Itter, M.; Finley, A. O.; D'Amato, A. W.; Foster, J. R.; Bradford, J. B.

2015-12-01

The relationship between climate variability and an ecosystem process, such as forest growth, is frequently not fixed over time, but changes due to complex interactions between unobserved ecological factors and the process of interest. Climate data and forecasts are frequently spatially and temporally misaligned with ecological observations making inference regarding the effects of climate on ecosystem processes particularly challenging. Here we develop a Bayesian dynamic hierarchical model for annual tree growth increment that allows the effects of climate to evolve over time, applies climate data at a spatial-temporal scale consistent with observations, and controls for individual-level variability commonly encountered in ecological datasets. The model is applied to individual tree data from northern Minnesota using a modified Thornthwaite-type water balance model to transform PRISM temperature and precipitation estimates to physiologically relevant values of actual and potential evapotranspiration (AET, PET), and climatic water deficit. Model results indicate that mean tree growth is most sensitive to AET during the growing season and PET and minimum temperature in the spring prior to growth. The effects of these variables on tree growth, however, are not stationary with significant effects observed in only a subset of years during the 111-year study period. Importantly, significant effects of climate do not result from anomalous climate observations, but follow from large growth deviations unexplained by tree age and size, and time since forest disturbance. Results differ markedly from alternative models that assume the effects of climate are stationary over time or apply climate estimates at the individual scale. Forecasts of future tree growth as a function of climate follow directly from the dynamic hierarchical model allowing for assessment of forest change. Current work is focused on extending the model framework to include regional climate and ecosystem effects for application to a larger tree growth dataset spanning a latitudinal gradient within the US from Maine to Florida.

Cost-effectiveness of a programme of screening and brief interventions for alcohol in primary care in Italy.

PubMed

Angus, Colin; Scafato, Emanuele; Ghirini, Silvia; Torbica, Aleksandra; Ferre, Francesca; Struzzo, Pierluigi; Purshouse, Robin; Brennan, Alan

2014-02-06

As alcohol-related health problems continue to rise, the attention of policy-makers is increasingly turning to Screening and Brief Intervention (SBI) programmes. The effectiveness of such programmes in primary healthcare is well evidenced, but very few cost-effectiveness analyses have been conducted and none which specifically consider the Italian context. The Sheffield Alcohol Policy Model has been used to model the cost-effectiveness of government pricing and public health policies in several countries including England. This study adapts the model using Italian data to evaluate a programme of screening and brief interventions in Italy. Results are reported as Incremental Cost-Effectiveness Ratios (ICERs) of SBI programmes versus a 'do-nothing' scenario. Model results show such programmes to be highly cost-effective, with estimated ICERs of €550/Quality Adjusted Life Year (QALY) gained for a programme of SBI at next GP registration and €590/QALY for SBI at next GP consultation. A range of sensitivity analyses suggest these results are robust under all but the most pessimistic assumptions. This study provides strong support for the promotion of a policy of screening and brief interventions throughout Italy, although policy makers should be aware of the resource implications of different implementation options.

On Two-Dimensional ARMA Models for Image Analysis.

DTIC Science & Technology

1980-03-24

2-D ARMA models for image analysis . Particular emphasis is placed on restoration of noisy images using 2-D ARMA models. Computer results are...is concluded that the models are very effective linear models for image analysis . (Author)

Modelling the effects of treatment and quarantine on measles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beay, Lazarus Kalvein

2018-03-01

Treatment and quarantine are efforts to cure as well as to overcome the spread of diseases including measles. The spread of measles can be expressed by mathematical modelling in the form of nonlinear dynamical systems. In this study was conducted on the spread of measles by considering the effect of treatment and quarantine on the infected individuals. By using the basic reproduction number of the model, can be analyzed the effects of treatment and quarantine to reduce the spread of measles. Basic reproduction number of models is monotonically descreasing as treatment and quarantine increasing. Numerical simulations conducted on the analysis of the results. The results showed that treatment and quarantine was given to infected individuals who were infectious has a major influence to eliminate measles from the system.

Geo-additive modelling of malaria in Burundi

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Malaria is a major public health issue in Burundi in terms of both morbidity and mortality, with around 2.5 million clinical cases and more than 15,000 deaths each year. It is still the single main cause of mortality in pregnant women and children below five years of age. Because of the severe health and economic burden of malaria, there is still a growing need for methods that will help to understand the influencing factors. Several studies/researches have been done on the subject yielding different results as which factors are most responsible for the increase in malaria transmission. This paper considers the modelling of the dependence of malaria cases on spatial determinants and climatic covariates including rainfall, temperature and humidity in Burundi. Methods The analysis carried out in this work exploits real monthly data collected in the area of Burundi over 12 years (1996-2007). Semi-parametric regression models are used. The spatial analysis is based on a geo-additive model using provinces as the geographic units of study. The spatial effect is split into structured (correlated) and unstructured (uncorrelated) components. Inference is fully Bayesian and uses Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques. The effects of the continuous covariates are modelled by cubic p-splines with 20 equidistant knots and second order random walk penalty. For the spatially correlated effect, Markov random field prior is chosen. The spatially uncorrelated effects are assumed to be i.i.d. Gaussian. The effects of climatic covariates and the effects of other spatial determinants are estimated simultaneously in a unified regression framework. Results The results obtained from the proposed model suggest that although malaria incidence in a given month is strongly positively associated with the minimum temperature of the previous months, regional patterns of malaria that are related to factors other than climatic variables have been identified, without being able to explain them. Conclusions In this paper, semiparametric models are used to model the effects of both climatic covariates and spatial effects on malaria distribution in Burundi. The results obtained from the proposed models suggest a strong positive association between malaria incidence in a given month and the minimum temperature of the previous month. From the spatial effects, important spatial patterns of malaria that are related to factors other than climatic variables are identified. Potential explanations (factors) could be related to socio-economic conditions, food shortage, limited access to health care service, precarious housing, promiscuity, poor hygienic conditions, limited access to drinking water, land use (rice paddies for example), displacement of the population (due to armed conflicts). PMID:21835010

Modeling the Effects of Perceptual Load: Saliency, Competitive Interactions, and Top-Down Biases.

PubMed

Neokleous, Kleanthis; Shimi, Andria; Avraamides, Marios N

2016-01-01

A computational model of visual selective attention has been implemented to account for experimental findings on the Perceptual Load Theory (PLT) of attention. The model was designed based on existing neurophysiological findings on attentional processes with the objective to offer an explicit and biologically plausible formulation of PLT. Simulation results verified that the proposed model is capable of capturing the basic pattern of results that support the PLT as well as findings that are considered contradictory to the theory. Importantly, the model is able to reproduce the behavioral results from a dilution experiment, providing thus a way to reconcile PLT with the competing Dilution account. Overall, the model presents a novel account for explaining PLT effects on the basis of the low-level competitive interactions among neurons that represent visual input and the top-down signals that modulate neural activity. The implications of the model concerning the debate on the locus of selective attention as well as the origins of distractor interference in visual displays of varying load are discussed.

Performance of time-varying predictors in multilevel models under an assumption of fixed or random effects.

PubMed

Baird, Rachel; Maxwell, Scott E

2016-06-01

Time-varying predictors in multilevel models are a useful tool for longitudinal research, whether they are the research variable of interest or they are controlling for variance to allow greater power for other variables. However, standard recommendations to fix the effect of time-varying predictors may make an assumption that is unlikely to hold in reality and may influence results. A simulation study illustrates that treating the time-varying predictor as fixed may allow analyses to converge, but the analyses have poor coverage of the true fixed effect when the time-varying predictor has a random effect in reality. A second simulation study shows that treating the time-varying predictor as random may have poor convergence, except when allowing negative variance estimates. Although negative variance estimates are uninterpretable, results of the simulation show that estimates of the fixed effect of the time-varying predictor are as accurate for these cases as for cases with positive variance estimates, and that treating the time-varying predictor as random and allowing negative variance estimates performs well whether the time-varying predictor is fixed or random in reality. Because of the difficulty of interpreting negative variance estimates, 2 procedures are suggested for selection between fixed-effect and random-effect models: comparing between fixed-effect and constrained random-effect models with a likelihood ratio test or fitting a fixed-effect model when an unconstrained random-effect model produces negative variance estimates. The performance of these 2 procedures is compared. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Bayesian Genomic Prediction with Genotype × Environment Interaction Kernel Models

PubMed Central

Cuevas, Jaime; Crossa, José; Montesinos-López, Osval A.; Burgueño, Juan; Pérez-Rodríguez, Paulino; de los Campos, Gustavo

2016-01-01

The phenomenon of genotype × environment (G × E) interaction in plant breeding decreases selection accuracy, thereby negatively affecting genetic gains. Several genomic prediction models incorporating G × E have been recently developed and used in genomic selection of plant breeding programs. Genomic prediction models for assessing multi-environment G × E interaction are extensions of a single-environment model, and have advantages and limitations. In this study, we propose two multi-environment Bayesian genomic models: the first model considers genetic effects (u) that can be assessed by the Kronecker product of variance–covariance matrices of genetic correlations between environments and genomic kernels through markers under two linear kernel methods, linear (genomic best linear unbiased predictors, GBLUP) and Gaussian (Gaussian kernel, GK). The other model has the same genetic component as the first model (u) plus an extra component, f, that captures random effects between environments that were not captured by the random effects u. We used five CIMMYT data sets (one maize and four wheat) that were previously used in different studies. Results show that models with G × E always have superior prediction ability than single-environment models, and the higher prediction ability of multi-environment models with u and f over the multi-environment model with only u occurred 85% of the time with GBLUP and 45% of the time with GK across the five data sets. The latter result indicated that including the random effect f is still beneficial for increasing prediction ability after adjusting by the random effect u. PMID:27793970

Bayesian Genomic Prediction with Genotype × Environment Interaction Kernel Models.

PubMed

Cuevas, Jaime; Crossa, José; Montesinos-López, Osval A; Burgueño, Juan; Pérez-Rodríguez, Paulino; de Los Campos, Gustavo

2017-01-05

The phenomenon of genotype × environment (G × E) interaction in plant breeding decreases selection accuracy, thereby negatively affecting genetic gains. Several genomic prediction models incorporating G × E have been recently developed and used in genomic selection of plant breeding programs. Genomic prediction models for assessing multi-environment G × E interaction are extensions of a single-environment model, and have advantages and limitations. In this study, we propose two multi-environment Bayesian genomic models: the first model considers genetic effects [Formula: see text] that can be assessed by the Kronecker product of variance-covariance matrices of genetic correlations between environments and genomic kernels through markers under two linear kernel methods, linear (genomic best linear unbiased predictors, GBLUP) and Gaussian (Gaussian kernel, GK). The other model has the same genetic component as the first model [Formula: see text] plus an extra component, F: , that captures random effects between environments that were not captured by the random effects [Formula: see text] We used five CIMMYT data sets (one maize and four wheat) that were previously used in different studies. Results show that models with G × E always have superior prediction ability than single-environment models, and the higher prediction ability of multi-environment models with [Formula: see text] over the multi-environment model with only u occurred 85% of the time with GBLUP and 45% of the time with GK across the five data sets. The latter result indicated that including the random effect f is still beneficial for increasing prediction ability after adjusting by the random effect [Formula: see text]. Copyright © 2017 Cuevas et al.

The Influence of Social Modeling, Gender, and Empathy on Treatment Side Effects.

PubMed

Faasse, Kate; Parkes, Bryony; Kearney, James; Petrie, Keith J

2018-05-31

Social modeling has the capacity to shape treatment outcomes, including side effects. This study investigated the influence of social modeling of treatment side effects, gender, and participant empathy, on side effects of a placebo treatment. Ninety-six participants (48 females) completed a study purportedly investigating the influence of modafinil (actually placebo) on alertness and fatigue. The participants were randomly seated with a male or female confederate and saw this confederate report experiencing side effects or no side effects. Participant empathy was assessed at baseline. Changes in modeled and general symptoms, and misattribution of symptoms, were assessed during the session and at 24-hr follow-up. During the experimental session, seeing side effect modeling significantly increased modeled symptoms (p = .023, d = 0.56) but not general or misattributed symptoms. Regardless of modeling condition, female participants seated with a female model reported significantly more general symptoms during the session. However, response to social modeling did not differ significantly by model or participant gender. At follow-up, the effect of social modeling of side effects had generalized to other symptoms, resulting in significantly higher rates of modeled symptoms (p = .023, d = 0.48), general symptoms (p = .013, d = 0.49), and misattributed symptoms (p = .022, d = 0.50). The experience of modeled symptoms in response to social modeling was predicted by participants' levels of baseline empathy. Social modeling of symptoms can increase the side effects following treatment, and this effect appears to generalize to a broader range of symptoms and symptom misattribution over time. Higher baseline empathy seems to increase response to social modeling.

Modeling quantum yield, emittance, and surface roughness effects from metallic photocathodes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dimitrov, D. A.; Bell, G. I.; Smedley, J.

Here, detailed measurements of momentum distributions of emitted electrons have allowed the investigation of the thermal limit of the transverse emittance from metal photocathodes. Furthermore, recent developments in material design and growth have resulted in photocathodes that can deliver high quantum efficiency and are sufficiently robust to use in high electric field gradient photoinjectors and free electron lasers. The growth process usually produces photoemissive material layers with rough surface profiles that lead to transverse accelerating fields and possible work function variations, resulting in emittance growth. To better understand the effects of temperature, density of states, and surface roughness on themore » properties of emitted electrons, we have developed realistic three-dimensional models for photocathode materials with grated surface structures. They include general modeling of electron excitation due to photon absorption, charge transport, and emission from flat and rough metallic surfaces. The models also include image charge and field enhancement effects. We report results from simulations with flat and rough surfaces to investigate how electron scattering, controlled roughness, work function variation, and field enhancement affect emission properties. Comparison of simulation results with measurements of the quantum yield and transverse emittance from flat Sb emission surfaces shows the importance of including efficient modeling of photon absorption, temperature effects, and the material density of states to achieve agreement with the experimental data.« less

Modeling quantum yield, emittance, and surface roughness effects from metallic photocathodes

DOE PAGES

Dimitrov, D. A.; Bell, G. I.; Smedley, J.; ...

2017-10-26

Here, detailed measurements of momentum distributions of emitted electrons have allowed the investigation of the thermal limit of the transverse emittance from metal photocathodes. Furthermore, recent developments in material design and growth have resulted in photocathodes that can deliver high quantum efficiency and are sufficiently robust to use in high electric field gradient photoinjectors and free electron lasers. The growth process usually produces photoemissive material layers with rough surface profiles that lead to transverse accelerating fields and possible work function variations, resulting in emittance growth. To better understand the effects of temperature, density of states, and surface roughness on themore » properties of emitted electrons, we have developed realistic three-dimensional models for photocathode materials with grated surface structures. They include general modeling of electron excitation due to photon absorption, charge transport, and emission from flat and rough metallic surfaces. The models also include image charge and field enhancement effects. We report results from simulations with flat and rough surfaces to investigate how electron scattering, controlled roughness, work function variation, and field enhancement affect emission properties. Comparison of simulation results with measurements of the quantum yield and transverse emittance from flat Sb emission surfaces shows the importance of including efficient modeling of photon absorption, temperature effects, and the material density of states to achieve agreement with the experimental data.« less

Long-term cost-effectiveness of disease management in systolic heart failure.

PubMed

Miller, George; Randolph, Stephen; Forkner, Emma; Smith, Brad; Galbreath, Autumn Dawn

2009-01-01

Although congestive heart failure (CHF) is a primary target for disease management programs, previous studies have generated mixed results regarding the effectiveness and cost savings of disease management when applied to CHF. We estimated the long-term impact of systolic heart failure disease management from the results of an 18-month clinical trial. We used data generated from the trial (starting population distributions, resource utilization, mortality rates, and transition probabilities) in a Markov model to project results of continuing the disease management program for the patients' lifetimes. Outputs included distribution of illness severity, mortality, resource consumption, and the cost of resources consumed. Both cost and effectiveness were discounted at a rate of 3% per year. Cost-effectiveness was computed as cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained. Model results were validated against trial data and indicated that, over their lifetimes, patients experienced a lifespan extension of 51 days. Combined discounted lifetime program and medical costs were $4850 higher in the disease management group than the control group, but the program had a favorable long-term discounted cost-effectiveness of $43,650/QALY. These results are robust to assumptions regarding mortality rates, the impact of aging on the cost of care, the discount rate, utility values, and the targeted population. Estimation of the clinical benefits and financial burden of disease management can be enhanced by model-based analyses to project costs and effectiveness. Our results suggest that disease management of heart failure patients can be cost-effective over the long term.

A framework for performance measurement in university using extended network data envelopment analysis (DEA) structures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kashim, Rosmaini; Kasim, Maznah Mat; Rahman, Rosshairy Abd

2015-12-01

Measuring university performance is essential for efficient allocation and utilization of educational resources. In most of the previous studies, performance measurement in universities emphasized the operational efficiency and resource utilization without investigating the university's ability to fulfill the needs of its stakeholders and society. Therefore, assessment of the performance of university should be separated into two stages namely efficiency and effectiveness. In conventional DEA analysis, a decision making unit (DMU) or in this context, a university is generally treated as a black-box which ignores the operation and interdependence of the internal processes. When this happens, the results obtained would be misleading. Thus, this paper suggest an alternative framework for measuring the overall performance of a university by incorporating both efficiency and effectiveness and applies network DEA model. The network DEA models are recommended because this approach takes into account the interrelationship between the processes of efficiency and effectiveness in the system. This framework also focuses on the university structure which is expanded from the hierarchical to form a series of horizontal relationship between subordinate units by assuming both intermediate unit and its subordinate units can generate output(s). Three conceptual models are proposed to evaluate the performance of a university. An efficiency model is developed at the first stage by using hierarchical network model. It is followed by an effectiveness model which take output(s) from the hierarchical structure at the first stage as a input(s) at the second stage. As a result, a new overall performance model is proposed by combining both efficiency and effectiveness models. Thus, once this overall model is realized and utilized, the university's top management can determine the overall performance of each unit more accurately and systematically. Besides that, the result from the network DEA model can give a superior benchmarking power over the conventional models.

Numerical Viscous Flow Analysis of an Advanced Semispan Diamond-Wing Model at High-Life Conditions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ghaffari, F.; Biedron, R. T.; Luckring, J. M.

2002-01-01

Turbulent Navier-Stokes computational results are presented for an advanced diamond wing semispan model at low speed, high-lift conditions. The numerical results are obtained in support of a wind-tunnel test that was conducted in the National Transonic Facility (NTF) at the NASA Langley Research Center. The model incorporated a generic fuselage and was mounted on the tunnel sidewall using a constant width standoff. The analyses include: (1) the numerical simulation of the NTF empty, tunnel flow characteristics; (2) semispan high-lift model with the standoff in the tunnel environment; (3) semispan high-lift model with the standoff and viscous sidewall in free air; and (4) semispan high-lift model without the standoff in free air. The computations were performed at conditions that correspond to a nominal approach and landing configuration. The wing surface pressure distributions computed for the model in both the tunnel and in free air agreed well with the corresponding experimental data and they both indicated small increments due to the wall interference effects. However, the wall interference effects were found to be more pronounced in the total measured and the computed lift, drag and pitching moment due to standard induced up-flow effects. Although the magnitudes of the computed forces and moment were slightly off compared to the measured data, the increments due the wall interference effects were predicted well. The numerical predictions are also presented on the combined effects of the tunnel sidewall boundary layer and the standoff geometry on the fuselage fore-body pressure distributions and the resulting impact on the overall configuration longitudinal aerodynamic characteristics.

Decision science and cervical cancer.

PubMed

Cantor, Scott B; Fahs, Marianne C; Mandelblatt, Jeanne S; Myers, Evan R; Sanders, Gillian D

2003-11-01

Mathematical modeling is an effective tool for guiding cervical cancer screening, diagnosis, and treatment decisions for patients and policymakers. This article describes the use of mathematical modeling as outlined in five presentations from the Decision Science and Cervical Cancer session of the Second International Conference on Cervical Cancer held at The University of Texas M. D. Anderson Cancer Center, April 11-14, 2002. The authors provide an overview of mathematical modeling, especially decision analysis and cost-effectiveness analysis, and examples of how it can be used for clinical decision making regarding the prevention, diagnosis, and treatment of cervical cancer. Included are applications as well as theory regarding decision science and cervical cancer. Mathematical modeling can answer such questions as the optimal frequency for screening, the optimal age to stop screening, and the optimal way to diagnose cervical cancer. Results from one mathematical model demonstrated that a vaccine against high-risk strains of human papillomavirus was a cost-effective use of resources, and discussion of another model demonstrated the importance of collecting direct non-health care costs and time costs for cost-effectiveness analysis. Research presented indicated that care must be taken when applying the results of population-wide, cost-effectiveness analyses to reduce health disparities. Mathematical modeling can encompass a variety of theoretical and applied issues regarding decision science and cervical cancer. The ultimate objective of using decision-analytic and cost-effectiveness models is to identify ways to improve women's health at an economically reasonable cost. Copyright 2003 American Cancer Society.

Finite Element Modeling of the Buckling Response of Sandwich Panels

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rose, Cheryl A.; Moore, David F.; Knight, Norman F., Jr.; Rankin, Charles C.

2002-01-01

A comparative study of different modeling approaches for predicting sandwich panel buckling response is described. The study considers sandwich panels with anisotropic face sheets and a very thick core. Results from conventional analytical solutions for sandwich panel overall buckling and face-sheet-wrinkling type modes are compared with solutions obtained using different finite element modeling approaches. Finite element solutions are obtained using layered shell element models, with and without transverse shear flexibility, layered shell/solid element models, with shell elements for the face sheets and solid elements for the core, and sandwich models using a recently developed specialty sandwich element. Convergence characteristics of the shell/solid and sandwich element modeling approaches with respect to in-plane and through-the-thickness discretization, are demonstrated. Results of the study indicate that the specialty sandwich element provides an accurate and effective modeling approach for predicting both overall and localized sandwich panel buckling response. Furthermore, results indicate that anisotropy of the face sheets, along with the ratio of principle elastic moduli, affect the buckling response and these effects may not be represented accurately by analytical solutions. Modeling recommendations are also provided.

Information dissemination model for social media with constant updates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Hui; Wu, Heng; Cao, Jin; Fu, Gang; Li, Hui

2018-07-01

With the development of social media tools and the pervasiveness of smart terminals, social media has become a significant source of information for many individuals. However, false information can spread rapidly, which may result in negative social impacts and serious economic losses. Thus, reducing the unfavorable effects of false information has become an urgent challenge. In this paper, a new competitive model called DMCU is proposed to describe the dissemination of information with constant updates in social media. In the model, we focus on the competitive relationship between the original false information and updated information, and then propose the priority of related information. To more effectively evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed model, data sets containing actual social media activity are utilized in experiments. Simulation results demonstrate that the DMCU model can precisely describe the process of information dissemination with constant updates, and that it can be used to forecast information dissemination trends on social media.

A comparison of the COG and MCNP codes in computational neutron capture therapy modeling, Part II: gadolinium neutron capture therapy models and therapeutic effects.

PubMed

Wangerin, K; Culbertson, C N; Jevremovic, T

2005-08-01

The goal of this study was to evaluate the COG Monte Carlo radiation transport code, developed and tested by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, for gadolinium neutron capture therapy (GdNCT) related modeling. The validity of COG NCT model has been established for this model, and here the calculation was extended to analyze the effect of various gadolinium concentrations on dose distribution and cell-kill effect of the GdNCT modality and to determine the optimum therapeutic conditions for treating brain cancers. The computational results were compared with the widely used MCNP code. The differences between the COG and MCNP predictions were generally small and suggest that the COG code can be applied to similar research problems in NCT. Results for this study also showed that a concentration of 100 ppm gadolinium in the tumor was most beneficial when using an epithermal neutron beam.

System analysis for the Huntsville Operational Support Center distributed computer system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ingels, F. M.; Mauldin, J.

1984-01-01

The Huntsville Operations Support Center (HOSC) is a distributed computer system used to provide real time data acquisition, analysis and display during NASA space missions and to perform simulation and study activities during non-mission times. The primary purpose is to provide a HOSC system simulation model that is used to investigate the effects of various HOSC system configurations. Such a model would be valuable in planning the future growth of HOSC and in ascertaining the effects of data rate variations, update table broadcasting and smart display terminal data requirements on the HOSC HYPERchannel network system. A simulation model was developed in PASCAL and results of the simulation model for various system configuraions were obtained. A tutorial of the model is presented and the results of simulation runs are presented. Some very high data rate situations were simulated to observe the effects of the HYPERchannel switch over from contention to priority mode under high channel loading.

Modeling the VARTM Composite Manufacturing Process

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Song, Xiao-Lan; Loos, Alfred C.; Grimsley, Brian W.; Cano, Roberto J.; Hubert, Pascal

2004-01-01

A comprehensive simulation model of the Vacuum Assisted Resin Transfer Modeling (VARTM) composite manufacturing process has been developed. For isothermal resin infiltration, the model incorporates submodels which describe cure of the resin and changes in resin viscosity due to cure, resin flow through the reinforcement preform and distribution medium and compaction of the preform during the infiltration. The accuracy of the model was validated by measuring the flow patterns during resin infiltration of flat preforms. The modeling software was used to evaluate the effects of the distribution medium on resin infiltration of a flat preform. Different distribution medium configurations were examined using the model and the results were compared with data collected during resin infiltration of a carbon fabric preform. The results of the simulations show that the approach used to model the distribution medium can significantly effect the predicted resin infiltration times. Resin infiltration into the preform can be accurately predicted only when the distribution medium is modeled correctly.

Modeling of near wall turbulence and modeling of bypass transition

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yang, Z.

1992-01-01

The objectives for this project are as follows: (1) Modeling of the near wall turbulence: We aim to develop a second order closure for the near wall turbulence. As a first step of this project, we try to develop a kappa-epsilon model for near wall turbulence. We require the resulting model to be able to handle both near wall turbulence and turbulent flows away from the wall, computationally robust, and applicable for complex flow situations, flow with separation, for example, and (2) Modeling of the bypass transition: We aim to develop a bypass transition model which contains the effect of intermittency. Thus, the model can be used for both the transitional boundary layers and the turbulent boundary layers. We require the resulting model to give a good prediction of momentum and heat transfer within the transitional boundary and a good prediction of the effect of freestream turbulence on transitional boundary layers.

Novel Anticoagulants for Stroke Prevention in Atrial Fibrillation: A Systematic Review of Cost-Effectiveness Models

PubMed Central

Limone, Brendan L.; Baker, William L.; Kluger, Jeffrey; Coleman, Craig I.

2013-01-01

Objective To conduct a systematic review of economic models of newer anticoagulants for stroke prevention in atrial fibrillation (SPAF). Patients and Methods We searched Medline, Embase, NHSEED and HTA databases and the Tuft’s Registry from January 1, 2008 through October 10, 2012 to identify economic (Markov or discrete event simulation) models of newer agents for SPAF. Results Eighteen models were identified. Each was based on a lone randomized trial/new agent, and these trials were clinically and methodologically heterogeneous. Dabigatran 150 mg, 110 mg and sequentially-dosed were assessed in 9, 8, and 9 models, rivaroxaban in 4 and apixaban in 4. Warfarin was a first-line comparator in 94% of models. Models were conducted from United States (44%), European (39%) and Canadian (17%) perspectives. Models typically assumed patients between 65–73 years old at moderate-risk of stroke initiated anticoagulation for/near a lifetime. All models reported cost/quality-adjusted life-year, 22% reported using a societal perspective, but none included indirect costs. Four models reported an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) for a newer anticoagulant (dabigatran 110 mg (n = 4)/150 mg (n = 2); rivaroxaban (n = 1)) vs. warfarin above commonly reported willingness-to-pay thresholds. ICERs vs. warfarin ranged from $3,547–$86,000 for dabigatran 150 mg, $20,713–$150,000 for dabigatran 110 mg, $4,084–$21,466 for sequentially-dosed dabigatran and $23,065–$57,470 for rivaroxaban. Apixaban was found economically-dominant to aspirin, and dominant or cost-effective ($11,400–$25,059) vs. warfarin. Indirect comparisons from 3 models suggested conflicting comparative cost-effectiveness results. Conclusions Cost-effectiveness models frequently found newer anticoagulants cost-effective, but the lack of head-to-head trials and the heterogeneous characteristics of underlying trials and modeling methods make it difficult to determine the most cost-effective agent. PMID:23626785

Screening of effective pharmacological treatments for MELAS syndrome using yeasts, fibroblasts and cybrid models of the disease

PubMed Central

Garrido-Maraver, Juan; Cordero, Mario D; Moñino, Irene Domínguez; Pereira-Arenas, Sheila; Lechuga-Vieco, Ana V; Cotán, David; De la Mata, Mario; Oropesa-Ávila, Manuel; De Miguel, Manuel; Bautista Lorite, Juan; Rivas Infante, Eloy; Álvarez-Dolado, Manuel; Navas, Plácido; Jackson, Sandra; Francisci, Silvia; Sánchez-Alcázar, José A

2012-01-01

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE MELAS (mitochondrial encephalomyopathy, lactic acidosis and stroke-like episodes) is a mitochondrial disease most usually caused by point mutations in tRNA genes encoded by mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA). Approximately 80% of cases of MELAS syndrome are associated with a m.3243A > G mutation in the MT-TL1 gene, which encodes the mitochondrial tRNALeu (UUR). Currently, no effective treatments are available for this chronic progressive disorder. Treatment strategies in MELAS and other mitochondrial diseases consist of several drugs that diminish the deleterious effects of the abnormal respiratory chain function, reduce the presence of toxic agents or correct deficiencies in essential cofactors. EXPERIMENTAL APPROACH We evaluated the effectiveness of some common pharmacological agents that have been utilized in the treatment of MELAS, in yeast, fibroblast and cybrid models of the disease. The yeast model harbouring the A14G mutation in the mitochondrial tRNALeu(UUR) gene, which is equivalent to the A3243G mutation in humans, was used in the initial screening. Next, the most effective drugs that were able to rescue the respiratory deficiency in MELAS yeast mutants were tested in fibroblasts and cybrid models of MELAS disease. KEY RESULTS According to our results, supplementation with riboflavin or coenzyme Q10 effectively reversed the respiratory defect in MELAS yeast and improved the pathologic alterations in MELAS fibroblast and cybrid cell models. CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS Our results indicate that cell models have great potential for screening and validating the effects of novel drug candidates for MELAS treatment and presumably also for other diseases with mitochondrial impairment. PMID:22747838

Introducing an osteopathic approach into neonatology ward: the NE-O model.

PubMed

Cerritelli, Francesco; Martelli, Marta; Renzetti, Cinzia; Pizzolorusso, Gianfranco; Cozzolino, Vincenzo; Barlafante, Gina

2014-01-01

Several studies showed the effect of osteopathic manipulative treatment on neonatal care in reducing length of stay in hospital, gastrointestinal problems, clubfoot complications and improving cranial asymmetry of infants affected by plagiocephaly. Despite several results obtained, there is still a lack of standardized osteopathic evaluation and treatment procedures for newborns recovered in neonatal intensive care unit (NICU). The aim of this paper is to suggest a protocol on osteopathic approach (NE-O model) in treating hospitalized newborns. The NE-O model is composed by specific evaluation tests and treatments to tailor osteopathic method according to preterm and term infants' needs, NICU environment, medical and paramedical assistance. This model was developed to maximize the effectiveness and the clinical use of osteopathy into NICU. The NE-O model was adopted in 2006 to evaluate the efficacy of OMT in neonatology. Results from research showed the effectiveness of this osteopathic model in reducing preterms' length of stay and hospital costs. Additionally the present model was demonstrated to be safe. The present paper defines the key steps for a rigorous and effective osteopathic approach into NICU setting, providing a scientific and methodological example of integrated medicine and complex intervention.

Gompertzian stochastic model with delay effect to cervical cancer growth

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mazlan, Mazma Syahidatul Ayuni binti; Rosli, Norhayati binti; Bahar, Arifah

2015-02-03

In this paper, a Gompertzian stochastic model with time delay is introduced to describe the cervical cancer growth. The parameters values of the mathematical model are estimated via Levenberg-Marquardt optimization method of non-linear least squares. We apply Milstein scheme for solving the stochastic model numerically. The efficiency of mathematical model is measured by comparing the simulated result and the clinical data of cervical cancer growth. Low values of Mean-Square Error (MSE) of Gompertzian stochastic model with delay effect indicate good fits.

Images of Leadership and their Effect Upon School Principals' Performance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gaziel, Haim

2003-09-01

The purpose of the present study is to identify how school principals perceive their world and how their perceptions influence their effectiveness as managers and leaders. The principals' views of their world were categorised into four different metaphorical ways of describing the workings of organisations: (1) the structural model (organisations as machines); (2) the human-resource model (organisations as organisms); (3) the political model (organisations as political systems); (4) the symbolic model (organisations as cultural patterns and clusters of myths and symbols). The results reveal that the best predictors of school principals' effectiveness as managers, according to their own assessments and teachers' reports, are the structural and human resource models, while the best predictors of effective leadership are the political and human-resource models.

Lower solar chromosphere-corona transition region. II - Wave pressure effects for a specific form of the heating function

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Woods, D. Tod; Holzer, Thomas E.; Macgregor, Keith B.

1990-01-01

Lower transition region models with a balance between mechanical heating and radiative losses are expanded to include wave pressure effects. The models are used to study the simple damping length form of the heating function. The results are compared to the results obtained by Woods et al. (1990) for solutions in the lower transition region. The results suggest that a mixture of fast-mode and slow-mode waves may provide the appropriate heating mechanism in the lower transition region, with the decline in effective vertical wave speed caused by the refraction and eventual total reflection of the fast-mode wave resulting from the decreasing atmospheric density.

FHWA Traffic Noise Model (TNM) pavement effects implementation study : progress report 1

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2012-01-31

The Volpe Center Acoustics Facility, in support of the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA), investigated the implementation of pavement effects in the FHWA Traffic Noise Model (TNM). Three options were considered, resulting in the recommendation of...

Modeling and Measuring the Effects of Radiation Damage Annealing on Helium Diffusion Kinetics in Apatite

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Willett, C. D.; Fox, M.; Shuster, D. L.

2016-12-01

Understanding helium diffusion kinetics in apatite is critical for the accurate interpretation of (U-Th)/He thermochronometric data. This problem is complicated by the observation that helium diffusivity is not a simple function of temperature, but may evolve as a function of damage to the apatite crystal lattice resulting from alpha recoil. This `radiation damage' increases as a function of the amount of radiometric parent products, or effective uranium concentration, and time, but decreases due to thermal annealing of damage, necessitating a detailed understanding of radiation damage production and annealing in cases of burial heating over geologic timescales. Published observations [1,2] suggest that annealing rates of damage caused by alpha recoil and fission tracks in apatite differ. Existing models, however, assume the diffusion kinetics resulting from the two sources of damage are identical [3], demonstrating the need for further investigation of these damage sources. We present modeling and experimental work designed to interrogate the effects of radiation damage and its annealing on helium diffusion kinetics in apatite. Using previously published results [4] that investigated the effects of annealing temperature and duration on measured helium diffusivity, we fit a set of functions that are then integrated into a numerical model that tracks the evolution of radiation damage and apparent (U-Th)/He age. We compare the results of this model calibration to existing models [3]. In addition, we present data from two suites of diffusion experiments. The first suite, intended to test the published methodology and results, uses Durango apatite, while the second uses Sierran (CA) granite as a first test to determine if apatite of varying chemistry and age responds differently to the thermal annealing of radiation damage. Ultimately, the updated model and experimental results will benefit the interpretation of the effects of radiation damage accumulation and annealing in apatite and expand the range of geologic settings that can be studied using low-temperature thermochronology. References: [1] Fox, M., Shuster, D. (2014), EPSL 397, 174-183; [2] Gautheron, C. et al. (2013), Chem. Geol. 351, 257-267; [3] Flowers, R. et al. (2009), GCA 73, 2347-2365; [4] Shuster, D., Farley, K. (2009), GCA 73, 6183-6196.

Verification of Exciton Effects in Organic Solar Cells at Low Temperatures Based on a Modified Numerical Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xiong, Chun-Hua; Sun, Jiu-Xun; Wang, Dai-Peng; Dong, Yan

2018-02-01

There are many models for researching charge transport in semiconductors and improving their performance. Most of them give good descriptions of the experimental data at room temperature. But it is still an open question which model is correct. In this paper, numerical calculations based on three modified versions of a classical model were made, and compared with experimental data for typical devices at room or low temperatures. Although their results are very similar to each other at room temperatures, only the version considering exciton effects by using a hydrogen-like model can give qualitative descriptions to recent experimental data at low temperatures. Moreover, the mobility was researched in detail by comparing the constant model and temperature dependence model. Then, we found the performance increases with the mobility of each charge carrier type being independent to the mobility of the other one. This paper provides better insight into understanding the physical mechanism of carrier transport in semiconductors, and the results show that exciton effects should be considered in modeling organic solar cells.

Factor Analysis of Drawings: Application to college student models of the greenhouse effect

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Libarkin, Julie C.; Thomas, Stephen R.; Ording, Gabriel

2015-09-01

Exploratory factor analysis was used to identify models underlying drawings of the greenhouse effect made by over 200 entering university freshmen. Initial content analysis allowed deconstruction of drawings into salient features, with grouping of these features via factor analysis. A resulting 4-factor solution explains 62% of the data variance, suggesting that 4 archetype models of the greenhouse effect dominate thinking within this population. Factor scores, indicating the extent to which each student's drawing aligned with representative models, were compared to performance on conceptual understanding and attitudes measures, demographics, and non-cognitive features of drawings. Student drawings were also compared to drawings made by scientists to ascertain the extent to which models reflect more sophisticated and accurate models. Results indicate that student and scientist drawings share some similarities, most notably the presence of some features of the most sophisticated non-scientific model held among the study population. Prior knowledge, prior attitudes, gender, and non-cognitive components are also predictive of an individual student's model. This work presents a new technique for analyzing drawings, with general implications for the use of drawings in investigating student conceptions.

Phase space effects on fast ion transport modeling in tokamaks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Podesta, Mario

2015-11-01

Simulations of burning plasmas require a consistent treatment of energetic particles (EP), possibly including the effects of instabilities. Reduced EP transport models are emerging as an effective tool to account for those effects in long time-scale simulations. Available models essentially differ for the main transport drive, which is associated to gradients in real or phase space. It is crucial to assess to what extent those different assumptions affect computed quantities such as EP profile, Neutral Beam (NB) driven current and energy/momentum transfer to the thermal populations. These issues are investigated through a kick model, which includes modifications of the EP distribution by instabilities in real and velocity space. TRANSP simulations including the kick model are applied to NB-heated NSTX discharges featuring unstable toroidal Alfvén eigenmodes (TAEs). Results show that TAEs mainly affect fast ions with large parallel velocity, i.e. the most effective for NB current drive. Other portions of the EP distribution are nearly unperturbed. Core NB driven current decreases by 10-30%, with even larger relative changes toward the plasma edge. When TAEs evolve in so-called avalanches, the model reproduces measured drops of ~ 10% in the neutron rate. Consistently with previous results, the drop is caused by both EP energy loss and EP redistribution. These results are compared to those from a simple diffusive model and a ``critical gradient'' model, which postulates radial EP gradient as the only transport drive. The importance of EP velocity space modifications is discussed in terms of accuracy of the predictions, with emphasis on Neutral Beam driven current. Work supported by U.S. DOE Contract DE-AC02-09CH11466.

Improving models of democracy: the example of lagged effects of economic development, education, and gender equality.

PubMed

Balaev, Mikhail

2014-07-01

The author examines how time delayed effects of economic development, education, and gender equality influence political democracy. Literature review shows inadequate understanding of lagged effects, which raises methodological and theoretical issues with the current quantitative studies of democracy. Using country-years as a unit of analysis, the author estimates a series of OLS PCSE models for each predictor with a systematic analysis of the distributions of the lagged effects. The second set of multiple OLS PCSE regressions are estimated including all three independent variables. The results show that economic development, education, and gender have three unique trajectories of the time-delayed effects: Economic development has long-term effects, education produces continuous effects regardless of the timing, and gender equality has the most prominent immediate and short term effects. The results call for the reassessment of model specifications and theoretical setups in the quantitative studies of democracy. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Combating weight-based cyberbullying on Facebook with the dissenter effect.

PubMed

Anderson, Jenn; Bresnahan, Mary; Musatics, Catherine

2014-05-01

Weight-based cyberbullying is prevalent among youth and adolescents and can have lasting negative psychological effects on the victims. One way to combat these negative effects is through modeling dissenting behavior. When a bystander challenges the bully or supports the victim, this models dissenting behavior. In this study, 181 participants were exposed to message manipulations posted on a Facebook page aimed at testing the conformity effect, the dissenter effect, and the bystander effect in response to enactment of weight-based bullying. Facebook is a common social media site where cyberbullying is reported. Results indicate that in the dissenting condition, participants' comments were significantly more positive or supporting for the victim, as compared to other conditions. This effect was more pronounced for men than for women. In addition, in the dissenting condition, men were less likely to consider the victim unhealthy than women and men in other conditions. These results support the effectiveness of efforts to model dissenting behavior in the face of bullies and extend them to online contexts. Implications are discussed.

Moment method analysis of linearly tapered slot antennas

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koeksal, Adnan

1993-01-01

A method of moments (MOM) model for the analysis of the Linearly Tapered Slot Antenna (LTSA) is developed and implemented. The model employs an unequal size rectangular sectioning for conducting parts of the antenna. Piecewise sinusoidal basis functions are used for the expansion of conductor current. The effect of the dielectric is incorporated in the model by using equivalent volume polarization current density and solving the equivalent problem in free-space. The feed section of the antenna including the microstripline is handled rigorously in the MOM model by including slotline short circuit and microstripline currents among the unknowns. Comparison with measurements is made to demonstrate the validity of the model for both the air case and the dielectric case. Validity of the model is also verified by extending the model to handle the analysis of the skew-plate antenna and comparing the results to those of a skew-segmentation modeling results of the same structure and to available data in the literature. Variation of the radiation pattern for the air LTSA with length, height, and taper angle is investigated, and the results are tabulated. Numerical results for the effect of the dielectric thickness and permittivity are presented.

Dependence of Attenuation of Common Mode Radiation from Indoor Power Line Communication System on Structure of Reinforced Concrete Wall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Ifong; Ishigami, Shinobu; Gotoh, Kaoru; Matsumoto, Yasushi

The attenuation effect of the walls of a building on the electromagnetic (EM) field generated by an indoor power line communication (PLC) system is numerically investigated using the finite integration (FI) method. In particular, we focus on the frequency range 2-6MHz, for which the attenuation effect has not yet been sufficiently analyzed. We model a single, finite-sized wall instead of an entire house, to focus on the dependence of the EM field on the wall structure and also reduce the computational resources required. The EM field strength is evaluated at many points on a view plane 10m from the wall model, and the results are statistically processed to determine the attenuation effect of the wall. We show that the leakage of an EM field at 2-6MHz is suppressed by about 30dB by a reinforced concrete wall. We also show that the main contributor to the attenuation effect is the rebar in the wall. We then investigate the relation between the attenuation effect of a single-wall model and that of a house model. The results show that the attenuation effect of a house model is almost the same as that of a 15-m-wall model. We conclude that the use of a single-wall model instead of a house model is effective in determining the attenuation of the EM leakage. This simple structure reduces analytic space, time, and memory in the evaluation of the dependence on the wall structure of the EM leakage from indoor PLC systems.

Should we use standard survival models or the illness-death model for interval-censored data to investigate risk factors of chronic kidney disease progression?

PubMed

Boucquemont, Julie; Metzger, Marie; Combe, Christian; Stengel, Bénédicte; Leffondre, Karen

2014-01-01

In studies investigating risk factors of chronic kidney disease (CKD) progression, one may be interested in estimating factors effects on both a fall of glomerular filtration rate (GFR) below a specific level (i.e., a CKD stage) and death. Such studies have to account for the fact that GFR is measured at intermittent visit only, which implies that progression to the stage of interest is unknown for patients who die before being observed at that stage. Our objective was to compare the results of an illness-death model that handles this uncertainty, with frequently used survival models. This study included 1,519 patients from the NephroTest cohort with CKD stages 1-4 at baseline (69% males, 59±15 years, median protein/creatinine ratio [PCR] 27.4 mg/mmol) and subsequent annual measures of GFR (follow-up time 4.3±2.7 years). Each model was used to estimate the effects of sex, age, PCR, and GFR at baseline on the hazards of progression to CKD stage 5 (GFR<15 mL/min/1.73 m2, n = 282 observed) and death (n = 168). For progression to stage 5, there were only minor differences between results from the different models. The differences between results were higher for the hazard of death before or after progression. Our results also suggest that previous findings on the effect of age on end-stage renal disease are more likely due to a strong impact of age on death than to an effect on progression. The probabilities of progression were systematically under-estimated with the survival model as compared with the illness-death model. This study illustrates the advantages of the illness-death model for accurately estimating the effects of risk factors on the hazard of progression and death, and probabilities of progression. It avoids the need to choose arbitrary time-to-event and time-to-censoring, while accounting for both interval censoring and competition by death, using a single analytical model.

Transition mixing study empirical model report

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Srinivasan, R.; White, C.

1988-01-01

The empirical model developed in the NASA Dilution Jet Mixing Program has been extended to include the curvature effects of transition liners. This extension is based on the results of a 3-D numerical model generated under this contract. The empirical model results agree well with the numerical model results for all tests cases evaluated. The empirical model shows faster mixing rates compared to the numerical model. Both models show drift of jets toward the inner wall of a turning duct. The structure of the jets from the inner wall does not exhibit the familiar kidney-shaped structures observed for the outer wall jets or for jets injected in rectangular ducts.

The biogeophysical effects of extreme afforestation in modeling future climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Ye; Yan, Xiaodong; Wang, Zhaomin

2014-11-01

Afforestation has been deployed as a mitigation strategy for global warming due to its substantial carbon sequestration, which is partly counterbalanced with its biogeophysical effects through modifying the fluxes of energy, water, and momentum at the land surface. To assess the potential biophysical effects of afforestation, a set of extreme experiments in an Earth system model of intermediate complexity, the McGill Paleoclimate Model-2 (MPM-2), is designed. Model results show that latitudinal afforestation not only has a local warming effect but also induces global and remote warming over regions beyond the forcing originating areas. Precipitation increases in the northern hemisphere and decreases in southern hemisphere in response to afforestation. The local surface warming over the forcing originating areas in northern hemisphere is driven by decreases in surface albedo and increases in precipitation. The remote surface warming in southern hemisphere is induced by decreases in surface albedo and precipitation. The results suggest that the potential impact of afforestation on regional and global climate depended critically on the location of the forest expansion. That is, afforestation in 0°-15°N leaves a relatively minor impact on global and regional temperature; afforestation in 45°-60°N results in a significant global warming, while afforestation in 30°-45°N results in a prominent regional warming. In addition, the afforestation leads to a decrease in annual mean meridional oceanic heat transport with a maximum decrease in forest expansion of 30°-45°N. These results can help to compare afforestation effects and find areas where afforestation mitigates climate change most effectively combined with its carbon drawdown effects.

Advancing investigation and physical modeling of first-order fire effects on soils

Treesearch

William J. Massman; John M. Frank; Sacha J. Mooney

2010-01-01

Heating soil during intense wildland fires or slash-pile burns can alter the soil irreversibly, resulting in many significant long-term biological, chemical, physical, and hydrological effects. To better understand these long-term effects, it is necessary to improve modeling capability and prediction of the more immediate, or first-order, effects that fire can have on...

Dicke-model simulation via cavity-assisted Raman transitions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Zhiqiang; Lee, Chern Hui; Kumar, Ravi; Arnold, K. J.; Masson, Stuart J.; Grimsmo, A. L.; Parkins, A. S.; Barrett, M. D.

2018-04-01

The Dicke model is of fundamental importance in quantum mechanics for understanding the collective behavior of atoms coupled to a single electromagnetic mode. Here, we demonstrate a Dicke-model simulation via cavity-assisted Raman transitions in a configuration using counterpropagating laser beams. The observations indicate that motional effects should be included to fully account for the results. These results are contrary to experiments using single-beam and copropagating configurations. We give a theoretical description that accounts for the beam geometries used in the experiments and indicates the potential role of motional effects. In particular, a model is given that highlights the influence of Doppler broadening on the observed phase-transition thresholds.

Assessment of Energy Removal Impacts on Physical Systems: Hydrodynamic Model Domain Expansion and Refinement, and Online Dissemination of Model Results

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yang, Zhaoqing; Khangaonkar, Tarang; Wang, Taiping

In this report we describe the 1) the expansion of the PNNL hydrodynamic model domain to include the continental shelf along the coasts of Washington, Oregon, and Vancouver Island; and 2) the approach and progress in developing the online/Internet disseminations of model results and outreach efforts in support of the Puget Sound Operational Forecast System (PS-OPF). Submittal of this report completes the work on Task 2.1.2, Effects of Physical Systems, Subtask 2.1.2.1, Hydrodynamics, for fiscal year 2010 of the Environmental Effects of Marine and Hydrokinetic Energy project.

Results of tests of a Rockwell International space shuttle orbiter (-139 configuration) 0.0175-scale model (no. 29-0) in AEDC tunnel F to determine hypersonic heating effects (OH11)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Quan, M.

1975-01-01

Results from wind tunnel tests to determine hypersonic aerodynamic heating rates on a NASA/Rockwell Space Shuttle Orbiter are reported. The tests were to determine Mach number effects, if any, and to obtain overall heating rate data at high Mach numbers from 10.5 to 16. The model used was a 0.0175-scale model built to Rockwell Orbiter lines VL70-000139. The model identity number is 29-0. These tests, designated OH11, were conducted in the AEDC Tunnel F.

Effects of crowders on the equilibrium and kinetic properties of protein aggregation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bridstrup, John; Yuan, Jian-Min

2016-08-01

The equilibrium and kinetic properties of protein aggregation systems in the presence of crowders are investigated using simple, illuminating models based on mass-action laws. Our model yields analytic results for equilibrium properties of protein aggregates, which fit experimental data of actin and ApoC-II with crowders reasonably well. When the effects of crowders on rate constants are considered, our kinetic model is in good agreement with experimental results for actin with dextran as the crowder. Furthermore, the model shows that as crowder volume fraction increases, the length distribution of fibrils becomes narrower and shifts to shorter values due to volume exclusion.

Numerical Study of Mixing Thermal Conductivity Models for Nanofluid Heat Transfer Enhancement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pramuanjaroenkij, A.; Tongkratoke, A.; Kakaç, S.

2018-01-01

Researchers have paid attention to nanofluid applications, since nanofluids have revealed their potentials as working fluids in many thermal systems. Numerical studies of convective heat transfer in nanofluids can be based on considering them as single- and two-phase fluids. This work is focused on improving the single-phase nanofluid model performance, since the employment of this model requires less calculation time and it is less complicated due to utilizing the mixing thermal conductivity model, which combines static and dynamic parts used in the simulation domain alternately. The in-house numerical program has been developed to analyze the effects of the grid nodes, effective viscosity model, boundary-layer thickness, and of the mixing thermal conductivity model on the nanofluid heat transfer enhancement. CuO-water, Al2O3-water, and Cu-water nanofluids are chosen, and their laminar fully developed flows through a rectangular channel are considered. The influence of the effective viscosity model on the nanofluid heat transfer enhancement is estimated through the average differences between the numerical and experimental results for the nanofluids mentioned. The nanofluid heat transfer enhancement results show that the mixing thermal conductivity model consisting of the Maxwell model as the static part and the Yu and Choi model as the dynamic part, being applied to all three nanofluids, brings the numerical results closer to the experimental ones. The average differences between those results for CuO-water, Al2O3-water, and CuO-water nanofluid flows are 3.25, 2.74, and 3.02%, respectively. The mixing thermal conductivity model has been proved to increase the accuracy of the single-phase nanofluid simulation and to reveal its potentials in the single-phase nanofluid numerical studies.

Testing and numerical modeling of hypervelocity impact damaged Space Station multilayer insulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rule, William K.

1992-01-01

Results are presented of experiments measuring the degradation of the insulating capabilities of the multilayer insulation (MLI) of the Space Station Freedom, when subjected to hypervelocity impact damage. A simple numerical model was developed for use in an engineering design environment for quick assessment of thermal effect of the impact. The model was validated using results from thermal vacuum tests on MLI with simulated damage. The numerical model results agreed with experimental data.

Developing and applying a site-specific multimedia fate model to address ecological risk of oxytetracycline discharged with aquaculture effluent in coastal waters off Jangheung, Korea.

PubMed

Kim, Woojung; Lee, Yunho; Kim, Sang Don

2017-11-01

The overuse of oxytetracycline (OTC) in aquaculture has become a problem because of its chronic toxic effects on marine ecosystems. The present study assessed the ecological risk of OTC in the coastal waters near the Jangheung Flatfish Farm using a site-specific multimedia fate model to analyze exposure. Before the model was applied, its performance was validated by comparing it with field data. The coastal waters in the testbed were sampled and analyzed using liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS) followed by solid-phase extraction (SPE). The concentrations of OTC measured varied from 7.05 to 95.39ng/L. The results of validating the models showed that the site-specific multimedia fate model performed better (root mean square error (RMSE): 24.217, index of agreement (IOA): 0.739) than conventional fugacity approaches. This result demonstrated the utility of this model in supporting effective future management of aquaculture effluent. The results of probabilistic risk assessment indicated that OTC from aquaculture effluent did not cause adverse effects, even in a maximum-use scenario. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Pilot-model analysis and simulation study of effect of control task desired control response

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Adams, J. J.; Gera, J.; Jaudon, J. B.

1978-01-01

A pilot model analysis was performed that relates pilot control compensation, pilot aircraft system response, and aircraft response characteristics for longitudinal control. The results show that a higher aircraft short period frequency is required to achieve superior pilot aircraft system response in an altitude control task than is required in an attitude control task. These results were confirmed by a simulation study of target tracking. It was concluded that the pilot model analysis provides a theoretical basis for determining the effect of control task on pilot opinions.

Activity measurement and effective dose modelling of natural radionuclides in building material.

PubMed

Maringer, F J; Baumgartner, A; Rechberger, F; Seidel, C; Stietka, M

2013-11-01

In this paper the assessment of natural radionuclides' activity concentration in building materials, calibration requirements and related indoor exposure dose models is presented. Particular attention is turned to specific improvements in low-level gamma-ray spectrometry to determine the activity concentration of necessary natural radionuclides in building materials with adequate measurement uncertainties. Different approaches for the modelling of the effective dose indoor due to external radiation resulted from natural radionuclides in building material and results of actual building material assessments are shown. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Potential environmental impact of tidal energy extraction in the Pentland Firth at large spatial scales: results of a biogeochemical model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van der Molen, Johan; Ruardij, Piet; Greenwood, Naomi

2016-05-01

A model study was carried out of the potential large-scale (> 100 km) effects of marine renewable tidal energy generation in the Pentland Firth, using the 3-D hydrodynamics-biogeochemistry model GETM-ERSEM-BFM. A realistic 800 MW scenario and a high-impact scenario with massive expansion of tidal energy extraction to 8 GW scenario were considered. The realistic 800 MW scenario suggested minor effects on the tides, and undetectable effects on the biogeochemistry. The massive-expansion 8 GW scenario suggested effects would be observed over hundreds of kilometres away with changes of up to 10 % in tidal and ecosystem variables, in particular in a broad area in the vicinity of the Wash. There, waters became less turbid, and primary production increased with associated increases in faunal ecosystem variables. Moreover, a one-off increase in carbon storage in the sea bed was detected. Although these first results suggest positive environmental effects, further investigation is recommended of (i) the residual circulation in the vicinity of the Pentland Firth and effects on larval dispersal using a higher-resolution model and (ii) ecosystem effects with (future) state-of-the-art models if energy extraction substantially beyond 1 GW is planned.

Impact of Precipitating Ice Hydrometeors on Longwave Radiative Effect Estimated by a Global Cloud-System Resolving Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Ying-Wen; Seiki, Tatsuya; Kodama, Chihiro; Satoh, Masaki; Noda, Akira T.

2018-02-01

Satellite observation and general circulation model (GCM) studies suggest that precipitating ice makes nonnegligible contributions to the radiation balance of the Earth. However, in most GCMs, precipitating ice is diagnosed and its radiative effects are not taken into account. Here we examine the longwave radiative impact of precipitating ice using a global nonhydrostatic atmospheric model with a double-moment cloud microphysics scheme. An off-line radiation model is employed to determine cloud radiative effects according to the amount and altitude of each type of ice hydrometeor. Results show that the snow radiative effect reaches 2 W m-2 in the tropics, which is about half the value estimated by previous studies. This effect is strongly dependent on the vertical separation of ice categories and is partially generated by differences in terminal velocities, which are not represented in GCMs with diagnostic precipitating ice. Results from sensitivity experiments that artificially change the categories and altitudes of precipitating ice show that the simulated longwave heating profile and longwave radiation field are sensitive to the treatment of precipitating ice in models. This study emphasizes the importance of incorporating appropriate treatments for the radiative effects of precipitating ice in cloud and radiation schemes in GCMs in order to capture the cloud radiative effects of upper level clouds.

Bayesian Modeling for Identification and Estimation of the Learning Effects of Pointing Tasks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kyo, Koki

Recently, in the field of human-computer interaction, a model containing the systematic factor and human factor has been proposed to evaluate the performance of the input devices of a computer. This is called the SH-model. In this paper, in order to extend the range of application of the SH-model, we propose some new models based on the Box-Cox transformation and apply a Bayesian modeling method for identification and estimation of the learning effects of pointing tasks. We consider the parameters describing the learning effect as random variables and introduce smoothness priors for them. Illustrative results show that the newly-proposed models work well.

A Subgrid Approach for Modeling Microtopography Effects on Overland Flow: Application to Polygonal Tundra: Modeling Archive

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ahmad Jan; Ethan Coon; Scott Painter

This Modeling Archive is in support of an NGEE Arctic manuscript under review. A new subgrid model was implemented in the Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS) to capture micro-topography effects on surface flow. A comparison of the fine-scale simulations on seven individual ice-wedge polygons and a cluster of polygons was made between the results of the subgrid model and no-subgrid model. Our finding confirms that the effects of small-scale spatial heterogeneities can be captured in the coarsened models. The dataset contains meshes, inputfiles, subgrid parameters used in the simulations. Python scripts for post-processing and files for geometric analyses are also included.

Modeling Storm Surges Using Discontinuous Galerkin Methods

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-06-01

devastating impact on coastlines throughout the United States. In order to accurately understand the impacts of storm surges there needs to be an effective ...model. One of the governing systems of equations used to model storm surges’ effects is the Shallow Water Equations (SWE). In this thesis, we solve the...closer to the shoreline. In our simulation, we also learned of the effects spurious waves can have on the results. Due to boundary conditions, a

Peer Effects in College Academic Outcomes--Gender Matters!

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ficano, Carlena Cochi

2012-01-01

An extensive literature exploring a range of peer influences on both academic and non-academic outcomes continues to produce contradictory evidence regarding the existence and magnitude of peer effects. Our results provide no evidence of peer effects in models where peer academic ability is measured in the aggregate. However, models that control…

A Multilevel Bifactor Approach to Construct Validation of Mixed-Format Scales

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wang, Yan; Kim, Eun Sook; Dedrick, Robert F.; Ferron, John M.; Tan, Tony

2018-01-01

Wording effects associated with positively and negatively worded items have been found in many scales. Such effects may threaten construct validity and introduce systematic bias in the interpretation of results. A variety of models have been applied to address wording effects, such as the correlated uniqueness model and the correlated traits and…

The influence of track modelling options on the simulation of rail vehicle dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Di Gialleonardo, Egidio; Braghin, Francesco; Bruni, Stefano

2012-09-01

This paper investigates the effect of different models for track flexibility on the simulation of railway vehicle running dynamics on tangent and curved track. To this end, a multi-body model of the rail vehicle is defined including track flexibility effects on three levels of detail: a perfectly rigid pair of rails, a sectional track model and a three-dimensional finite element track model. The influence of the track model on the calculation of the nonlinear critical speed is pointed out and it is shown that neglecting the effect of track flexibility results in an overestimation of the critical speed by more than 10%. Vehicle response to stochastic excitation from track irregularity is also investigated, analysing the effect of track flexibility models on the vertical and lateral wheel-rail contact forces. Finally, the effect of the track model on the calculation of dynamic forces produced by wheel out-of-roundness is analysed, showing that peak dynamic loads are very sensitive to the track model used in the simulation.

Turbulent reacting flow computations including turbulence-chemistry interactions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Narayan, J. R.; Girimaji, S. S.

1992-01-01

A two-equation (k-epsilon) turbulence model has been extended to be applicable for compressible reacting flows. A compressibility correction model based on modeling the dilatational terms in the Reynolds stress equations has been used. A turbulence-chemistry interaction model is outlined. In this model, the effects of temperature and species mass concentrations fluctuations on the species mass production rates are decoupled. The effect of temperature fluctuations is modeled via a moment model, and the effect of concentration fluctuations is included using an assumed beta-pdf model. Preliminary results obtained using this model are presented. A two-dimensional reacting mixing layer has been used as a test case. Computations are carried out using the Navier-Stokes solver SPARK using a finite rate chemistry model for hydrogen-air combustion.

EFFECTS OF LASER RADIATION ON MATTER. LASER PLASMA: Spatial-temporal distribution of a mechanical load resulting from interaction of laser radiation with a barrier (analytic model)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fedyushin, B. T.

1992-01-01

The concepts developed earlier are used to propose a simple analytic model describing the spatial-temporal distribution of a mechanical load (pressure, impulse) resulting from interaction of laser radiation with a planar barrier surrounded by air. The correctness of the model is supported by a comparison with experimental results.

Gravity model for the North Atlantic ocean mantle: results, uncertainties and links to regional geodynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barantsrva, O.; Artemieva, I. M.; Thybo, H.

2015-12-01

We present the results of gravity modeling for the North Atlantic region based on interpretation of GOCE gravity satellite data. First, to separate the gravity signal caused by density anomalies within the crust and the upper mantle, we subtract the lower harmonics in the gravity field, which are presumably caused by deep density structure of the Earth (the core and the lower mantle). Next, the gravity effect of the upper mantle is calculated by subtracting the gravity effect of the crustal model. Our "basic model" is constrained by a recent regional seismic model EUNAseis for the crustal structure (Artemieva and Thybo, 2013); for bathymetry and topography we use a global ETOPO1 model by NOAA. We test sensitivity of the results to different input parameters, such as bathymetry, crustal structure, and gravity field. For bathymetry, we additionally use GEBCO data; for crustal correction - a global model CRUST 1.0 (Laske, 2013); for gravity - EGM2008 (Pavlis, 2012). Sensitivity analysis shows that uncertainty in the crustal structure produces the largest deviation from "the basic model". Use of different bathymetry data has little effect on the final results, comparable to the interpolation error. The difference in mantle residual gravity models based on GOCE and EMG2008 gravity data is 5-10 mGal. The results based on two crustal models have a similar pattern, but differ significantly in amplitude (ca. 250 mGal) for the Greenland-Faroe Ridge. The results demonstrate the presence of a strong gravity and density heterogeneity in the upper mantle in the North Atlantic region. A number of mantle residual gravity anomalies are robust features, independent of the choice of model parameters. This include (i) a sharp contrast at the continent-ocean transition, (ii) positive mantle gravity anomalies associated with continental fragments (microcontinents) in the North Atlantic ocean; (iii) negative mantle gravity anomalies which mark regions with anomalous oceanic mantle and the Mid-Atlantic Ridge. To understand better a complex geodynamics mosaic in the region, we compare our results with regional geochemical data (Korenaga and Klemen, 2000), and find that residual mantle gravity anomalies are well correlated with anomalies in epsilon-Nd and iron-depletion.

Simulating an underwater vehicle self-correcting guidance system with Simulink

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fan, Hui; Zhang, Yu-Wen; Li, Wen-Zhe

2008-09-01

Underwater vehicles have already adopted self-correcting directional guidance algorithms based on multi-beam self-guidance systems, not waiting for research to determine the most effective algorithms. The main challenges facing research on these guidance systems have been effective modeling of the guidance algorithm and a means to analyze the simulation results. A simulation structure based on Simulink that dealt with both issues was proposed. Initially, a mathematical model of relative motion between the vehicle and the target was developed, which was then encapsulated as a subsystem. Next, steps for constructing a model of the self-correcting guidance algorithm based on the Stateflow module were examined in detail. Finally, a 3-D model of the vehicle and target was created in VRML, and by processing mathematical results, the model was shown moving in a visual environment. This process gives more intuitive results for analyzing the simulation. The results showed that the simulation structure performs well. The simulation program heavily used modularization and encapsulation, so has broad applicability to simulations of other dynamic systems.

Initial Results of Coupling the Output of a Regional Weather Model and a Localized Computational Fluid Dynamics Model at the Atlantic City International Airport

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trout, Joseph; Manson, J. Russell; Rios, Manny; King, David; Decicco, Nicholas

2015-04-01

Wake Vortex Turbulence is the turbulence generated by an aircraft in flight. This turbulence is created by vortices at the tips of the wing that may decay slowly and persist for several minutes after creation. The strength, formation and lifetime of the turbulence and vortices are effected by many things including the weather. Here we present the preliminary results of an investigation of low level wind fields generated by the Weather Research and Forecasting Model and an analysis of historical data. The simulations are used as inputs for the computational fluid dynamics model (OpenFoam) that will be used to investigate the effect of weather on wake turbulence. The initial results of the OpenFoam model are presented elsewhere. Presented here are the initial results from a research grant, ``A Pilot Project to Investigate Wake Vortex Patterns and Weather Patterns at the Atlantic City Airport by the Richard Stockton College of NJ and the FAA''.

Modeling of Driver Steering Operations in Lateral Wind Disturbances toward Driver Assistance System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kurata, Yoshinori; Wada, Takahiro; Kamiji, Norimasa; Doi, Shun'ichi

Disturbances decrease vehicle stability and increase driver's mental and physical workload. Especially unexpected disturbances such as lateral winds have severe effect on vehicle stability and driver's workload. This study aims at building a driver model of steering operations in lateral wind toward developing effective driver assistance system. First, the relationship between the driver's lateral motion and its reactive quick steering behavior is investigated using driving simulator with lateral 1dof motion. In the experiments, four different wind patterns are displayed by the simulator. As the results, strong correlation was found between the driver's head lateral jerk by the lateral disturbance and the angular acceleration of the steering wheel. Then, we build a mathematical model of driver's steering model from lateral disturbance input to steering torque of the reactive quick feed-forward steering based on the experimental results. Finally, validity of the proposed model is shown by comparing the steering torque of experimental results and that of simulation results.

What is the effect of LiDAR-derived DEM resolution on large-scale watershed model results?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ping Yang; Daniel B. Ames; Andre Fonseca

This paper examines the effect of raster cell size on hydrographic feature extraction and hydrological modeling using LiDAR derived DEMs. LiDAR datasets for three experimental watersheds were converted to DEMs at various cell sizes. Watershed boundaries and stream networks were delineated from each DEM and were compared to reference data. Hydrological simulations were conducted and the outputs were compared. Smaller cell size DEMs consistently resulted in less difference between DEM-delineated features and reference data. However, minor differences been found between streamflow simulations resulted for a lumped watershed model run at daily simulations aggregated at an annual average. These findings indicatemore » that while higher resolution DEM grids may result in more accurate representation of terrain characteristics, such variations do not necessarily improve watershed scale simulation modeling. Hence the additional expense of generating high resolution DEM's for the purpose of watershed modeling at daily or longer time steps may not be warranted.« less

Studying the effect of weather conditions on daily crash counts using a discrete time-series model.

PubMed

Brijs, Tom; Karlis, Dimitris; Wets, Geert

2008-05-01

In previous research, significant effects of weather conditions on car crashes have been found. However, most studies use monthly or yearly data and only few studies are available analyzing the impact of weather conditions on daily car crash counts. Furthermore, the studies that are available on a daily level do not explicitly model the data in a time-series context, hereby ignoring the temporal serial correlation that may be present in the data. In this paper, we introduce an integer autoregressive model for modelling count data with time interdependencies. The model is applied to daily car crash data, metereological data and traffic exposure data from the Netherlands aiming at examining the risk impact of weather conditions on the observed counts. The results show that several assumptions related to the effect of weather conditions on crash counts are found to be significant in the data and that if serial temporal correlation is not accounted for in the model, this may produce biased results.

Analysis of out-of-plane thermal microactuators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Atre, Amarendra

2006-02-01

Out-of-plane thermal microactuators find applications in optical switches to motivate micromirrors. Accurate analysis of such actuators is beneficial for improving existing designs and constructing more energy efficient actuators. However, the analysis is complicated by the nonlinear deformation of the thermal actuators along with temperature-dependent properties of polysilicon. This paper describes the development, modeling issues and results of a three-dimensional multiphysics nonlinear finite element model of surface micromachined out-of-plane thermal actuators. The model includes conductive and convective cooling effects and takes into account the effect of variable air gap on the response of the actuator. The model is implemented to investigate the characteristics of two diverse MUMPs fabricated out-of-plane thermal actuators. Reasonable agreement is observed between simulated and measured results for the model that considers the influence of air gap on actuator response. The usefulness of the model is demonstrated by implementing it to observe the effect of actuator geometry variation on steady-state deflection response.

Turbulent Navier-Stokes Flow Analysis of an Advanced Semispan Diamond-Wing Model in Tunnel and Free Air at High-Lift Conditions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ghaffari, Farhad; Biedron, Robert T.; Luckring, James M.

2002-01-01

Turbulent Navier-Stokes computational results are presented for an advanced diamond wing semispan model at low-speed, high-lift conditions. The numerical results are obtained in support of a wind-tunnel test that was conducted in the National Transonic Facility at the NASA Langley Research Center. The model incorporated a generic fuselage and was mounted on the tunnel sidewall using a constant-width non-metric standoff. The computations were performed at to a nominal approach and landing flow conditions.The computed high-lift flow characteristics for the model in both the tunnel and in free-air environment are presented. The computed wing pressure distributions agreed well with the measured data and they both indicated a small effect due to the tunnel wall interference effects. However, the wall interference effects were found to be relatively more pronounced in the measured and the computed lift, drag and pitching moment. Although the magnitudes of the computed forces and moment were slightly off compared to the measured data, the increments due the wall interference effects were predicted reasonably well. The numerical results are also presented on the combined effects of the tunnel sidewall boundary layer and the standoff geometry on the fuselage forebody pressure distributions and the resulting impact on the configuration longitudinal aerodynamic characteristics.

Gefarnate stimulates mucin-like glycoprotein secretion in conjunctival tissue and ameliorates corneal epithelial damage in animal dry-eye models

PubMed Central

Dota, Atsuyoshi; Takaoka-Shichijo, Yuko; Nakamura, Masatsugu

2013-01-01

Purpose The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of gefarnate on mucin-like glycoprotein secretion in isolated rabbit conjunctival tissue, and on corneal epithelial damage in rabbit and cat dry-eye models. Methods Conjunctival tissue isolated from rabbits was treated with gefarnate. Mucin-like glycoprotein was detected in the culture supernatant by an enzyme-linked lectin assay. Gefarnate ointment was topically applied to eyes once daily for 7 days in the rabbit dry-eye model, in which the lacrimal glands, Harderian gland, and nictitating membrane were removed, or for 4 weeks in the cat dry-eye model, in which the lacrimal gland and nictitating membrane were removed. Corneal epithelial damage was evaluated by measurement of corneal permeability by rose bengal in the rabbit model or by fluorescein staining in the cat model. Results Gefarnate stimulated mucin-like glycoprotein secretion in conjunctival tissue in a dose-dependent manner. In the rabbit dry-eye model, application of gefarnate ointment to the eyes resulted in a dose-dependent decrease in rose bengal permeability in the cornea, with the effect being significant at concentrations of ≥0.3%. In the cat dry-eye model, application of gefarnate ointment resulted in a significant decrease in the corneal fluorescein staining score. Conclusion These results suggest that gefarnate stimulates in vitro secretion of mucin-like glycoprotein in conjunctival tissue and ameliorates corneal epithelial damage in animal dry-eye models. Gefarnate may therefore be effective for treating dry eye. PMID:23386781

Impact of Aerosols on Convective Clouds and Precipitation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tao, Wei-Kuo; Chen, Jen-Ping; Li, Zhanqing; Wang, Chien; Zhang, Chidong

2011-01-01

Aerosols are a critical factor in the atmospheric hydrological cycle and radiation budget. As a major reason for clouds to form and a significant attenuator of solar radiation, aerosols affect climate in several ways. Current research suggests that aerosol effects on clouds could further extend to precipitation, both through the formation of cloud particles and by exerting persistent radiative forcing on the climate system that disturbs dynamics. However, the various mechanisms behind these effects, in particular the ones connected to precipitation, are not yet well understood. The atmospheric and climate communities have long been working to gain a better grasp of these critical effects and hence to reduce the significant uncertainties in climate prediction resulting from such a lack of adequate knowledge. The central theme of this paper is to review past efforts and summarize our current understanding of the effect of aerosols on precipitation processes from theoretical analysis of microphysics, observational evidence, and a range of numerical model simulations. In addition, the discrepancy between results simulated by models, as well as that between simulations and observations will be presented. Specifically, this paper will address the following topics: (1) fundamental theories of aerosol effects on microphysics and precipitation processes, (2) observational evidence of the effect of aerosols on precipitation processes, (3) signatures of the aerosol impact on precipitation from large-scale analyses, (4) results from cloud-resolving model simulations, and (5) results from large-scale numerical model simulations. Finally, several future research directions on aerosol - precipitation interactions are suggested.

Impact of Aerosols on Convective Clouds and Precipitation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tao, Wei-Kuo; Chen, Jen-Ping; Li, Zhanqing; Wang, Chien; Zhang, Chidong

2012-01-01

Aerosols are a critical factor in the atmospheric hydrological cycle and radiation budget. As a major agent for clouds to form and a significant attenuator of solar radiation, aerosols affect climate in several ways. Current research suggests that aerosol effects on clouds could further extend to precipitation, both through the formation of cloud particles and by exerting persistent radiative forcing on the climate system that disturbs dynamics. However, the various mechanisms behind these effects, in particular the ones connected to precipitation, are not yet well understood. The atmospheric and climate communities have long been working to gain a better grasp of these critical effects and hence to reduce the significant uncertainties in climate prediction resulting from such a lack of adequate knowledge. Here we review past efforts and summarize our current understanding of the effect of aerosols on convective precipitation processes from theoretical analysis of microphysics, observational evidence, and a range of numerical model simulations. In addition, the discrepancy between results simulated by models, as well as that between simulations and observations, are presented. Specifically, this paper addresses the following topics: (1) fundamental theories of aerosol effects on microphysics and precipitation processes, (2) observational evidence of the effect of aerosols on precipitation processes, (3) signatures of the aerosol impact on precipitation from largescale analyses, (4) results from cloud-resolving model simulations, and (5) results from large-scale numerical model simulations. Finally, several future research directions for gaining a better understanding of aerosol--cloud-precipitation interactions are suggested.

Aggregate and Individual Replication Probability within an Explicit Model of the Research Process

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Miller, Jeff; Schwarz, Wolf

2011-01-01

We study a model of the research process in which the true effect size, the replication jitter due to changes in experimental procedure, and the statistical error of effect size measurement are all normally distributed random variables. Within this model, we analyze the probability of successfully replicating an initial experimental result by…

Generalisability in economic evaluation studies in healthcare: a review and case studies.

PubMed

Sculpher, M J; Pang, F S; Manca, A; Drummond, M F; Golder, S; Urdahl, H; Davies, L M; Eastwood, A

2004-12-01

To review, and to develop further, the methods used to assess and to increase the generalisability of economic evaluation studies. Electronic databases. Methodological studies relating to economic evaluation in healthcare were searched. This included electronic searches of a range of databases, including PREMEDLINE, MEDLINE, EMBASE and EconLit, and manual searches of key journals. The case studies of a decision analytic model involved highlighting specific features of previously published economic studies related to generalisability and location-related variability. The case-study involving the secondary analysis of cost-effectiveness analyses was based on the secondary analysis of three economic studies using data from randomised trials. The factor most frequently cited as generating variability in economic results between locations was the unit costs associated with particular resources. In the context of studies based on the analysis of patient-level data, regression analysis has been advocated as a means of looking at variability in economic results across locations. These methods have generally accepted that some components of resource use and outcomes are exchangeable across locations. Recent studies have also explored, in cost-effectiveness analysis, the use of tests of heterogeneity similar to those used in clinical evaluation in trials. The decision analytic model has been the main means by which cost-effectiveness has been adapted from trial to non-trial locations. Most models have focused on changes to the cost side of the analysis, but it is clear that the effectiveness side may also need to be adapted between locations. There have been weaknesses in some aspects of the reporting in applied cost-effectiveness studies. These may limit decision-makers' ability to judge the relevance of a study to their specific situations. The case study demonstrated the potential value of multilevel modelling (MLM). Where clustering exists by location (e.g. centre or country), MLM can facilitate correct estimates of the uncertainty in cost-effectiveness results, and also a means of estimating location-specific cost-effectiveness. The review of applied economic studies based on decision analytic models showed that few studies were explicit about their target decision-maker(s)/jurisdictions. The studies in the review generally made more effort to ensure that their cost inputs were specific to their target jurisdiction than their effectiveness parameters. Standard sensitivity analysis was the main way of dealing with uncertainty in the models, although few studies looked explicitly at variability between locations. The modelling case study illustrated how effectiveness and cost data can be made location-specific. In particular, on the effectiveness side, the example showed the separation of location-specific baseline events and pooled estimates of relative treatment effect, where the latter are assumed exchangeable across locations. A large number of factors are mentioned in the literature that might be expected to generate variation in the cost-effectiveness of healthcare interventions across locations. Several papers have demonstrated differences in the volume and cost of resource use between locations, but few studies have looked at variability in outcomes. In applied trial-based cost-effectiveness studies, few studies provide sufficient evidence for decision-makers to establish the relevance or to adjust the results of the study to their location of interest. Very few studies utilised statistical methods formally to assess the variability in results between locations. In applied economic studies based on decision models, most studies either stated their target decision-maker/jurisdiction or provided sufficient information from which this could be inferred. There was a greater tendency to ensure that cost inputs were specific to the target jurisdiction than clinical parameters. Methods to assess generalisability and variability in economic evaluation studies have been discussed extensively in the literature relating to both trial-based and modelling studies. Regression-based methods are likely to offer a systematic approach to quantifying variability in patient-level data. In particular, MLM has the potential to facilitate estimates of cost-effectiveness, which both reflect the variation in costs and outcomes between locations and also enable the consistency of cost-effectiveness estimates between locations to be assessed directly. Decision analytic models will retain an important role in adapting the results of cost-effectiveness studies between locations. Recommendations for further research include: the development of methods of evidence synthesis which model the exchangeability of data across locations and allow for the additional uncertainty in this process; assessment of alternative approaches to specifying multilevel models to the analysis of cost-effectiveness data alongside multilocation randomised trials; identification of a range of appropriate covariates relating to locations (e.g. hospitals) in multilevel models; and further assessment of the role of econometric methods (e.g. selection models) for cost-effectiveness analysis alongside observational datasets, and to increase the generalisability of randomised trials.

Diffusion Dominant Solute Transport Modelling In Deep Repository Under The Effect of Emplacement Media Degradation - 13285

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kwong, S.; Jivkov, A.P.

2013-07-01

Deep geologic disposal of high activity and long-lived radioactive waste is being actively considered and pursued in many countries, where low permeability geological formations are used to provide long term waste contaminant with minimum impact to the environment and risk to the biosphere. A multi-barrier approach that makes use of both engineered and natural barriers (i.e. geological formations) is often used to further enhance the containment performance of the repository. As the deep repository system subjects to a variety of thermo-hydro-chemo-mechanical (THCM) effects over its long 'operational' lifespan (e.g. 0.1 to 1.0 million years, the integrity of the barrier systemmore » will decrease over time (e.g. fracturing in rock or clay)). This is broadly referred as media degradation in the present study. This modelling study examines the effects of media degradation on diffusion dominant solute transport in fractured media that are typical of deep geological environment. In particular, reactive solute transport through fractured media is studied using a 2-D model, that considers advection and diffusion, to explore the coupled effects of kinetic and equilibrium chemical processes, while the effects of degradation is studied using a pore network model that considers the media diffusivity and network changes. Model results are presented to demonstrate the use of a 3D pore-network model, using a novel architecture, to calculate macroscopic properties of the medium such as diffusivity, subject to pore space changes as the media degrade. Results from a reactive transport model of a representative geological waste disposal package are also presented to demonstrate the effect of media property change on the solute migration behaviour, illustrating the complex interplay between kinetic biogeochemical processes and diffusion dominant transport. The initial modelling results demonstrate the feasibility of a coupled modelling approach (using pore-network model and reactive transport model) to examine the long term behaviour of deep geological repositories with media property change under complex geochemical conditions. (authors)« less

A variable parameter single degree-of-freedom model for predicting the effects of sitting posture and vibration magnitude on the vertical apparent mass of the human body.

PubMed

Toward, Martin G R; Griffin, Michael J

2010-01-01

Models of the vertical apparent mass of the human body are mostly restricted to a sitting posture unsupported by a backrest and ignore the variations in apparent mass associated with changes in posture and changes in the magnitude of vibration. Using findings from experimental research, this study fitted a single degree-of-freedom lumped parameter model to the measured vertical apparent mass of the body measured with a range of sitting postures and vibration magnitudes. The resulting model reflects the effects of reclining a rigid backrest or reclining a foam backrest (from 0 to 30 degrees), the effects of moving the hands from the lap to a steering wheel, the effects of moving the horizontal position of the feet, and the effects of vibration magnitude (from 0.125 to 1.6 ms(-2) r.m.s.). The error between the modelled and the measured apparent mass was minimised, for both the apparent masses of individual subjects and the median apparent masses of groups of 12 subjects, for each sitting posture and each vibration magnitude. Trends in model parameters, the damping ratios, and the damped natural frequencies were identified as a function of the model variables and show the effects of posture and vibration magnitude on body dynamics. For example, contact with a rigid backrest increased the derived damped natural frequency of the principal resonance as a result of reduced moving mass and increased stiffness. When the rigid backrest was reclined from 0 to 30º, the damping decreased and the resonance frequency increased as a result of reduced moving mass. It is concluded that, by appropriate variations in model parameters, a single degree-of-freedom model can provide a useful fit to the vertical apparent mass of the human body over a wide range of postures and vibration magnitudes. When measuring or modelling seat transmissibility, it may be difficult to justify an apparent mass model with more than a single degree-of-freedom if it does not reflect the large influences of vibration magnitude, body posture, and individual variability.

Relative effects on global warming of halogenated methanes and ethanes of social and industrial interest

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fisher, Donald A.; Hales, Charles H.; Wang, Wei-Chyung; Ko, Malcolm K. W.; Sze, N. Dak

1990-01-01

The relative potential global warming effects for several halocarbons (chlorofluorocarbons (CFC's)-11, 12, 113, 114, and 115; hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFC's) 22, 123, 124, 141b, and 142b; and hydrofluorocarbons (HFC's) 125, 134a, 143a, and 152a; carbon tetrachloride; and methyl chloroform) were calculated by two atmospheric modeling groups. These calculations were based on atmospheric chemistry and radiative convective models to determine the chemical profiles and the radiative processes. The resulting relative greenhouse warming when normalized to the effect of CFC-11 agree reasonably well as long as we account for differences between modeled lifetimes. Differences among results are discussed. Sensitivity of relative warming values is determined with respect to trace gas levels assumed. Transient relative global warming effects are analyzed.

A Nested Modeling Scheme for High-resolution Simulation of the Aquitard Compaction in a Regional Groundwater Extraction Field

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aichi, M.; Tokunaga, T.

2006-12-01

In the fields that experienced both significant drawdown/land subsidence and the recovery of groundwater potential, temporal change of the effective stress in the clayey layers is not simple. Conducting consolidation tests of core samples is a straightforward approach to know the pre-consolidation stress. However, especially in the urban area, the cost of boring and the limitation of sites for boring make it difficult to carry out enough number of tests. Numerical simulation to reproduce stress history can contribute to selecting boring sites and to complement the results of the laboratory tests. To trace the effective stress profile in the clayey layers by numerical simulation, discretization in the clayey layers should be fine. At the same time, the size of the modeled domain should be large enough to calculate the effect of regional groundwater extraction. Here, we developed a new scheme to reduce memory consumption based on domain decomposition technique. A finite element model of coupled groundwater flow and land subsidence is used for the local model, and a finite difference groundwater flow model is used for the regional model. The local model is discretized to fine mesh in the clayey layers to reproduce the temporal change of pore pressure in the layers while the regional model is discretized to relatively coarse mesh to reproduce the effect of the regional groundwater extraction on the groundwater flow. We have tested this scheme by comparing the results obtained from this scheme with those from the finely gridded model for the entire calculation domain. The difference between the results of these models was small enough and our new scheme can be used for the practical problem.

In search of random noise

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kester, DO; Bontekoe, Tj. Romke

1994-01-01

In order to make the best high resolution images of IRAS data it is necessary to incorporate any knowledge about the instrument into a model: the IRAS model. This is necessary since every remaining systematic effect will be amplified by any high resolution technique into spurious artifacts in the images. The search for random noise is in fact the never-ending quest for better quality results, and can only be obtained by better models. The Dutch high-resolution effort has resulted in HIRAS which drives the MEMSYS5 algorithm. It is specifically designed for IRAS image construction. A detailed description of HIRAS with many results is in preparation. In this paper we emphasize many of the instrumental effects incorporated in the IRAS model, including our improved 100 micron IRAS response functions.

Extending positive CLASS results across multiple instructors and multiple classes of Modeling Instruction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brewe, Eric; Traxler, Adrienne; de la Garza, Jorge; Kramer, Laird H.

2013-12-01

We report on a multiyear study of student attitudes measured with the Colorado Learning Attitudes about Science Survey in calculus-based introductory physics taught with the Modeling Instruction curriculum. We find that five of six instructors and eight of nine sections using Modeling Instruction showed significantly improved attitudes from pre- to postcourse. Cohen’s d effect sizes range from 0.08 to 0.95 for individual instructors. The average effect was d=0.45, with a 95% confidence interval of (0.26-0.64). These results build on previously published results showing positive shifts in attitudes from Modeling Instruction classes. We interpret these data in light of other published positive attitudinal shifts and explore mechanistic explanations for similarities and differences with other published positive shifts.

Contingent capture and inhibition of return: a comparison of mechanisms.

PubMed

Prinzmetal, William; Taylor, Jordan A; Myers, Loretta Barry; Nguyen-Espino, Jacqueline

2011-09-01

We investigated the cause(s) of two effects associated with involuntary attention in the spatial cueing task: contingent capture and inhibition of return (IOR). Previously, we found that there were two mechanisms of involuntary attention in this task: (1) a (serial) search mechanism that predicts a larger cueing effect in reaction time with more display locations and (2) a decision (threshold) mechanism that predicts a smaller cueing effect with more display locations (Prinzmetal et al. 2010). In the present study, contingent capture and IOR had completely different patterns of results when we manipulated the number of display locations and the presence of distractors. Contingent capture was best described by a search model, whereas the inhibition of return was best described by a decision model. Furthermore, we fit a linear ballistic accumulator model to the results and IOR was accounted for by a change of threshold, whereas the results from contingent capture experiments could not be fit with a change of threshold and were better fit by a search model.

A comparison between standard methods and structural nested modelling when bias from a healthy worker survivor effect is suspected: an iron-ore mining cohort study.

PubMed

Björ, Ove; Damber, Lena; Jonsson, Håkan; Nilsson, Tohr

2015-07-01

Iron-ore miners are exposed to extremely dusty and physically arduous work environments. The demanding activities of mining select healthier workers with longer work histories (ie, the Healthy Worker Survivor Effect (HWSE)), and could have a reversing effect on the exposure-response association. The objective of this study was to evaluate an iron-ore mining cohort to determine whether the effect of respirable dust was confounded by the presence of an HWSE. When an HWSE exists, standard modelling methods, such as Cox regression analysis, produce biased results. We compared results from g-estimation of accelerated failure-time modelling adjusted for HWSE with corresponding unadjusted Cox regression modelling results. For all-cause mortality when adjusting for the HWSE, cumulative exposure from respirable dust was associated with a 6% decrease of life expectancy if exposed ≥15 years, compared with never being exposed. Respirable dust continued to be associated with mortality after censoring outcomes known to be associated with dust when adjusting for the HWSE. In contrast, results based on Cox regression analysis did not support that an association was present. The adjustment for the HWSE made a difference when estimating the risk of mortality from respirable dust. The results of this study, therefore, support the recommendation that standard methods of analysis should be complemented with structural modelling analysis techniques, such as g-estimation of accelerated failure-time modelling, to adjust for the HWSE. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Mechanisms and mediation in survival analysis: towards an integrated analytical framework.

PubMed

Pratschke, Jonathan; Haase, Trutz; Comber, Harry; Sharp, Linda; de Camargo Cancela, Marianna; Johnson, Howard

2016-02-29

A wide-ranging debate has taken place in recent years on mediation analysis and causal modelling, raising profound theoretical, philosophical and methodological questions. The authors build on the results of these discussions to work towards an integrated approach to the analysis of research questions that situate survival outcomes in relation to complex causal pathways with multiple mediators. The background to this contribution is the increasingly urgent need for policy-relevant research on the nature of inequalities in health and healthcare. The authors begin by summarising debates on causal inference, mediated effects and statistical models, showing that these three strands of research have powerful synergies. They review a range of approaches which seek to extend existing survival models to obtain valid estimates of mediation effects. They then argue for an alternative strategy, which involves integrating survival outcomes within Structural Equation Models via the discrete-time survival model. This approach can provide an integrated framework for studying mediation effects in relation to survival outcomes, an issue of great relevance in applied health research. The authors provide an example of how these techniques can be used to explore whether the social class position of patients has a significant indirect effect on the hazard of death from colon cancer. The results suggest that the indirect effects of social class on survival are substantial and negative (-0.23 overall). In addition to the substantial direct effect of this variable (-0.60), its indirect effects account for more than one quarter of the total effect. The two main pathways for this indirect effect, via emergency admission (-0.12), on the one hand, and hospital caseload, on the other, (-0.10) are of similar size. The discrete-time survival model provides an attractive way of integrating time-to-event data within the field of Structural Equation Modelling. The authors demonstrate the efficacy of this approach in identifying complex causal pathways that mediate the effects of a socio-economic baseline covariate on the hazard of death from colon cancer. The results show that this approach has the potential to shed light on a class of research questions which is of particular relevance in health research.

The Effects of Q-Matrix Design on Classification Accuracy in the Log-Linear Cognitive Diagnosis Model.

PubMed

Madison, Matthew J; Bradshaw, Laine P

2015-06-01

Diagnostic classification models are psychometric models that aim to classify examinees according to their mastery or non-mastery of specified latent characteristics. These models are well-suited for providing diagnostic feedback on educational assessments because of their practical efficiency and increased reliability when compared with other multidimensional measurement models. A priori specifications of which latent characteristics or attributes are measured by each item are a core element of the diagnostic assessment design. This item-attribute alignment, expressed in a Q-matrix, precedes and supports any inference resulting from the application of the diagnostic classification model. This study investigates the effects of Q-matrix design on classification accuracy for the log-linear cognitive diagnosis model. Results indicate that classification accuracy, reliability, and convergence rates improve when the Q-matrix contains isolated information from each measured attribute.

A Fuzzy mathematical model to estimate the effects of global warming on the vitality of Laelia purpurata orchids.

PubMed

Putti, Fernando Ferrari; Filho, Luis Roberto Almeida Gabriel; Gabriel, Camila Pires Cremasco; Neto, Alfredo Bonini; Bonini, Carolina Dos Santos Batista; Rodrigues Dos Reis, André

2017-06-01

This study aimed to develop a fuzzy mathematical model to estimate the impacts of global warming on the vitality of Laelia purpurata growing in different Brazilian environmental conditions. In order to develop the mathematical model was considered as intrinsic factors the parameters: temperature, humidity and shade conditions to determine the vitality of plants. Fuzzy model results could accurately predict the optimal conditions for cultivation of Laelia purpurata in several sites of Brazil. Based on fuzzy model results, we found that higher temperatures and lacking of properly shading can reduce the vitality of orchids. Fuzzy mathematical model could precisely detect the effect of higher temperatures causing damages on vitality of plants as a consequence of global warming. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

An Integrated Modeling Suite for Simulating the Core Induction and Kinetic Effects in Mercury's Magnetosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jia, X.; Slavin, J.; Chen, Y.; Poh, G.; Toth, G.; Gombosi, T.

2018-05-01

We present results from state-of-the-art global models of Mercury's space environment capable of self-consistently simulating the induction effect at the core and resolving kinetic physics important for magnetic reconnection.

Investigations of environmental effects on freeway acoustics.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-05-01

We present a generalized terrain PE (GTPE) model for sound propagation in non-uniform terrain following the work of Sack and West (1995). Results for simplified terrain cases illustrate the new models capabilities and the effects of terrain in a n...

Effect of microgravity on visual contrast threshold during STS Shuttle missions: Visual Function Tester-Model 2 (VFT-2)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Oneal, Melvin R.; Task, H. Lee; Genco, Louis V.

1992-01-01

Viewgraphs on effect of microgravity on visual contrast threshold during STS shuttle missions are presented. The purpose, methods, and results are discussed. The visual function tester model 2 is used.

Site effect classification based on microtremor data analysis using a concentration-area fractal model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adib, A.; Afzal, P.; Heydarzadeh, K.

2015-01-01

The aim of this study is to classify the site effect using concentration-area (C-A) fractal model in Meybod city, central Iran, based on microtremor data analysis. Log-log plots of the frequency, amplification and vulnerability index (k-g) indicate a multifractal nature for the parameters in the area. The results obtained from the C-A fractal modelling reveal that proper soil types are located around the central city. The results derived via the fractal modelling were utilized to improve the Nogoshi and Igarashi (1970, 1971) classification results in the Meybod city. The resulting categories are: (1) hard soil and weak rock with frequency of 6.2 to 8 Hz, (2) stiff soil with frequency of about 4.9 to 6.2 Hz, (3) moderately soft soil with the frequency of 2.4 to 4.9 Hz, and (4) soft soil with the frequency lower than 2.4 Hz.

Site effect classification based on microtremor data analysis using concentration-area fractal model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adib, A.; Afzal, P.; Heydarzadeh, K.

2014-07-01

The aim of this study is to classify the site effect using concentration-area (C-A) fractal model in Meybod city, Central Iran, based on microtremor data analysis. Log-log plots of the frequency, amplification and vulnerability index (k-g) indicate a multifractal nature for the parameters in the area. The results obtained from the C-A fractal modeling reveal that proper soil types are located around the central city. The results derived via the fractal modeling were utilized to improve the Nogoshi's classification results in the Meybod city. The resulted categories are: (1) hard soil and weak rock with frequency of 6.2 to 8 Hz, (2) stiff soil with frequency of about 4.9 to 6.2 Hz, (3) moderately soft soil with the frequency of 2.4 to 4.9 Hz, and (4) soft soil with the frequency lower than 2.4 Hz.

Effective Stochastic Model for Reactive Transport

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tartakovsky, A. M.; Zheng, B.; Barajas-Solano, D. A.

2017-12-01

We propose an effective stochastic advection-diffusion-reaction (SADR) model. Unlike traditional advection-dispersion-reaction models, the SADR model describes mechanical and diffusive mixing as two separate processes. In the SADR model, the mechanical mixing is driven by random advective velocity with the variance given by the coefficient of mechanical dispersion. The diffusive mixing is modeled as a fickian diffusion with the effective diffusion coefficient. Both coefficients are given in terms of Peclet number (Pe) and the coefficient of molecular diffusion. We use the experimental results of to demonstrate that for transport and bimolecular reactions in porous media the SADR model is significantly more accurate than the traditional dispersion model, which overestimates the mass of the reaction product by as much as 25%.

Evaluation of uncertainty in the adjustment of fundamental constants

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bodnar, Olha; Elster, Clemens; Fischer, Joachim; Possolo, Antonio; Toman, Blaza

2016-02-01

Combining multiple measurement results for the same quantity is an important task in metrology and in many other areas. Examples include the determination of fundamental constants, the calculation of reference values in interlaboratory comparisons, or the meta-analysis of clinical studies. However, neither the GUM nor its supplements give any guidance for this task. Various approaches are applied such as weighted least-squares in conjunction with the Birge ratio or random effects models. While the former approach, which is based on a location-scale model, is particularly popular in metrology, the latter represents a standard tool used in statistics for meta-analysis. We investigate the reliability and robustness of the location-scale model and the random effects model with particular focus on resulting coverage or credible intervals. The interval estimates are obtained by adopting a Bayesian point of view in conjunction with a non-informative prior that is determined by a currently favored principle for selecting non-informative priors. Both approaches are compared by applying them to simulated data as well as to data for the Planck constant and the Newtonian constant of gravitation. Our results suggest that the proposed Bayesian inference based on the random effects model is more reliable and less sensitive to model misspecifications than the approach based on the location-scale model.

Implementation effect of productive 4-stage field orientation on the student technopreneur skill in vocational schools

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ismail, Edy; Samsudi, Widjanarko, Dwi; Joyce, Peter; Stearns, Roman

2018-03-01

This model integrates project base learning by creating a product based on environmental needs. The Produktif Orientasi Lapangan 4 Tahap (POL4T) combines technical skills and entrepreneurial elements together in the learning process. This study is to implement the result of technopreneurship learning model development which is environment-oriented by combining technology and entrepreneurship components on Machining Skill Program. This study applies research and development design by optimizing experimental subject. Data were obtained from questionnaires, learning material validation, interpersonal, intrapersonal observation forms, skills, product, teachers and students' responses, and cognitive tasks. Expert validation and t-test calculation are applied to see how effective POL4T learning model. The result of the study is in the form of 4 steps learning model to enhance interpersonal and intrapersonal attitudes, develop practical products which orient to society and appropriate technology so that the products can have high selling value. The model is effective based on the students' post test result, which is better than the pre-test. The product obtained from POL4T model is proven to be better than the productive learning. POL4T model is recommended to be implemented for XI grade students. This is can develop entrepreneurial attitudes that are environment oriented, community needs and technical competencies students.

Effect of Radiation on Chromospheric Magnetic Reconnection: Reactive and Collisional Multi-fluid Simulations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Alvarez Laguna, A.; Poedts, S.; Lani, A.

We study magnetic reconnection under chromospheric conditions in five different ionization levels from 0.5% to 50% using a self-consistent two-fluid (ions + neutrals) model that accounts for compressibility, collisional effects, chemical inequilibrium, and anisotropic heat conduction. Results with and without radiation are compared, using two models for the radiative losses: an optically thin radiation loss function, and an approximation of the radiative losses of a plasma with photospheric abundances. The results without radiation show that reconnection occurs faster for the weakly ionized cases as a result of the effect of ambipolar diffusion and fast recombination. The tearing mode instability appearsmore » earlier in the low ionized cases and grows rapidly. We find that radiative losses have a stronger effect than was found in previous results as the cooling changes the plasma pressure and the concentration of ions inside the current sheet. This affects the ambipolar diffusion and the chemical equilibrium, resulting in thin current sheets and enhanced reconnection. The results quantify this complex nonlinear interaction by showing that a strong cooling produces faster reconnections than have been found in models without radiation. The results accounting for radiation show timescales and outflows comparable to spicules and chromospheric jets.« less

Computational fluid dynamic on the temperature simulation of air preheat effect combustion in propane turbulent flame

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elwina; Yunardi; Bindar, Yazid

2018-04-01

this paper presents results obtained from the application of a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) code Fluent 6.3 to modelling of temperature in propane flames with and without air preheat. The study focuses to investigate the effect of air preheat temperature on the temperature of the flame. A standard k-ε model and Eddy Dissipation model are utilized to represent the flow field and combustion of the flame being investigated, respectively. The results of calculations are compared with experimental data of propane flame taken from literature. The results of the study show that a combination of the standard k-ε turbulence model and eddy dissipation model is capable of producing reasonable predictions of temperature, particularly in axial profile of all three flames. Both experimental works and numerical simulation showed that increasing the temperature of the combustion air significantly increases the flame temperature.

Simulating the moderating effect of a lake on downwind temperatures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bill, R. G., Jr.; Chen, E.; Sutherland, R. A.; Bartholic, J. F.

1979-01-01

A steady-state, two-dimensional numerical model is used to simulate air temperatures and humidity downwind of a lake at night. Thermal effects of the lake were modelled for the case of moderate and low surface winds under the cold-air advective conditions that occur following the passage of a cold front. Surface temperatures were found to be in good agreement with observations. A comparison of model results with thermal imagery indicated the model successfully predicts the downwind distance for which thermal effects due to the lake are significant.

Model Identification in Time-Series Analysis: Some Empirical Results.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Padia, William L.

Model identification of time-series data is essential to valid statistical tests of intervention effects. Model identification is, at best, inexact in the social and behavioral sciences where one is often confronted with small numbers of observations. These problems are discussed, and the results of independent identifications of 130 social and…

Validation and upgrading of physically based mathematical models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Duval, Ronald

1992-01-01

The validation of the results of physically-based mathematical models against experimental results was discussed. Systematic techniques are used for: (1) isolating subsets of the simulator mathematical model and comparing the response of each subset to its experimental response for the same input conditions; (2) evaluating the response error to determine whether it is the result of incorrect parameter values, incorrect structure of the model subset, or unmodeled external effects of cross coupling; and (3) modifying and upgrading the model and its parameter values to determine the most physically appropriate combination of changes.

Continuous variation caused by genes with graduated effects.

PubMed Central

Matthysse, S; Lange, K; Wagener, D K

1979-01-01

The classical polygenic theory of inheritance postulates a large number of genes with small, and essentially similar, effects. We propose instead a model with genes of gradually decreasing effects. The resulting phenotypic distribution is not normal; if the gene effects are geometrically decreasing, it can be triangular. The joint distribution of parent and offspring genic value is calculated. The most readily testable difference between the two models is that, in the decreasing-effect model, the variance of the offspring distribution from given parents depends on the parents' genic values. The more the parents deviate from the mean, the smaller the variance of the offspring should be. In the equal-effect model the offspring variance is independent of the parents' genic values. PMID:288073

A Bifactor Approach to Model Multifaceted Constructs in Statistical Mediation Analysis.

PubMed

Gonzalez, Oscar; MacKinnon, David P

Statistical mediation analysis allows researchers to identify the most important mediating constructs in the causal process studied. Identifying specific mediators is especially relevant when the hypothesized mediating construct consists of multiple related facets. The general definition of the construct and its facets might relate differently to an outcome. However, current methods do not allow researchers to study the relationships between general and specific aspects of a construct to an outcome simultaneously. This study proposes a bifactor measurement model for the mediating construct as a way to parse variance and represent the general aspect and specific facets of a construct simultaneously. Monte Carlo simulation results are presented to help determine the properties of mediated effect estimation when the mediator has a bifactor structure and a specific facet of a construct is the true mediator. This study also investigates the conditions when researchers can detect the mediated effect when the multidimensionality of the mediator is ignored and treated as unidimensional. Simulation results indicated that the mediation model with a bifactor mediator measurement model had unbiased and adequate power to detect the mediated effect with a sample size greater than 500 and medium a - and b -paths. Also, results indicate that parameter bias and detection of the mediated effect in both the data-generating model and the misspecified model varies as a function of the amount of facet variance represented in the mediation model. This study contributes to the largely unexplored area of measurement issues in statistical mediation analysis.

Modified chloride diffusion model for concrete under the coupling effect of mechanical load and chloride salt environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lei, Mingfeng; Lin, Dayong; Liu, Jianwen; Shi, Chenghua; Ma, Jianjun; Yang, Weichao; Yu, Xiaoniu

2018-03-01

For the purpose of investigating lining concrete durability, this study derives a modified chloride diffusion model for concrete based on the odd continuation of boundary conditions and Fourier transform. In order to achieve this, the linear stress distribution on a sectional structure is considered, detailed procedures and methods are presented for model verification and parametric analysis. Simulation results show that the chloride diffusion model can reflect the effects of linear stress distribution of the sectional structure on the chloride diffusivity with reliable accuracy. Along with the natural environmental characteristics of practical engineering structures, reference value ranges of model parameters are provided. Furthermore, a chloride diffusion model is extended for the consideration of multi-factor coupling of linear stress distribution, chloride concentration and diffusion time. Comparison between model simulation and typical current research results shows that the presented model can produce better considerations with a greater universality.

Coupling surface water (Delft3D) to groundwater (MODFLOW) in the Bay-Delta community model: the effect of major abstractions in the Delta

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hendriks, D.; Ball, S. M.; Van der Wegen, M.; Verkaik, J.; van Dam, A.

2016-12-01

We present a coupled groundwater-surface water model for the San Francisco Bay and Sacramento Valley that consists of a combination of a spatially-distributed groundwater model (Modflow) based on the USGS Central Valley model(1) and the Flexible Mesh (FM) surface water model of the Bay Area(2). With this coupled groundwater-surface water model, we assessed effects of climate, surface water abstractions and groundwater pumping on surface water and groundwater levels, groundwater-surface water interaction and infiltration/seepage fluxes. Results show that the effect of climate (high flow and low flow) on surface water and groundwater is significant and most prominent in upstream areas. The surface water abstractions cause significant local surface water levels decrease (over 2 m), which may cause inflow of bay water during low flow periods, resulting in salinization of surface water in more upstream areas. Groundwater level drawdown due to surface water withdrawal is moderate and limited to the area of the withdrawals. The groundwater pumping causes large groundwater level drawdowns (up to 0.8 m) and significant changes in seepage/infiltration fluxes in the model. However, the effect on groundwater-surface water exchange is relatively small. The presented model instrument gives a sound first impression of the effects of climate and water abstraction on both surface water and groundwater. The combination of Modflow and Flexible Mesh has potential for modelling of groundwater-surface water exchange in deltaic areas, also in other parts of the world. However, various improvements need to be made in order to make the simulation results useful in practice. In addition, a water quality aspect could be added to assess salinization processes as well as groundwater-surface water aspects of water and soil pollution. (1) http://ca.water.usgs.gov/projects/central-valley/central-valley-hydrologic-model.html (2) www.d3d-baydelta.org

Tabulated Combustion Model Development For Non-Premixed Flames

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kundu, Prithwish

Turbulent non-premixed flames play a very important role in the field of engineering ranging from power generation to propulsion. The coupling of fluid mechanics and complicated combustion chemistry of fuels pose a challenge for the numerical modeling of these type of problems. Combustion modeling in Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) is one of the most important tools used for predictive modeling of complex systems and to understand the basic fundamentals of combustion. Traditional combustion models solve a transport equation of each species with a source term. In order to resolve the complex chemistry accurately it is important to include a large number of species. However, the computational cost is generally proportional to the cube of number of species. The presence of a large number of species in a flame makes the use of CFD computationally expensive and beyond reach for some applications or inaccurate when solved with simplified chemistry. For highly turbulent flows, it also becomes important to incorporate the effects of turbulence chemistry interaction (TCI). The aim of this work is to develop high fidelity combustion models based on the flamelet concept and to significantly advance the existing capabilities. A thorough investigation of existing models (Finite-rate chemistry and Representative Interactive Flamelet (RIF)) and comparative study of combustion models was done initially on a constant volume combustion chamber with diesel fuel injection. The CFD modeling was validated with experimental results and was also successfully applied to a single cylinder diesel engine. The effect of number of flamelets on the RIF model and flamelet initialization strategies were studied. The RIF model with multiple flamelets is computationally expensive and a model was proposed on the frame work of RIF. The new model was based on tabulated chemistry and incorporated TCI effects. A multidimensional tabulated chemistry database generation code was developed based on the 1D diffusion flame solver. The proposed model did not use progress variables like the traditional chemistry tabulation methods. The resulting model demonstrated an order of magnitude computational speed up over the RIF model. The results were validated across a wide range of operating conditions for diesel injections and the results were in close agreement to those of the experimental data. History of scalar dissipation rates plays a very important role in non premixed flames. However, tabulated methods have not been able to incorporate this physics in their models. A comparative approach is developed that can quantify these effects and find correlations with flow variables. A new model is proposed to include these effects in tabulated combustion models. The model is initially validated for 1D counterflow diffusion flame problems at engine conditions. The model is further implemented and validated in a 3D RANS code across a range of operating conditions for spray flames.

Modeling sediment transport after ditch network maintenance of a forested peatland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haahti, K.; Marttila, H.; Warsta, L.; Kokkonen, T.; Finér, L.; Koivusalo, H.

2016-11-01

Elevated suspended sediment (SS) loads released from peatlands after drainage operations and the resulting negative effect on the ecological status of the receiving water bodies have been widely recognized. Understanding the processes controlling erosion and sediment transport within the ditch network forms a prerequisite for adequate sediment control. While numerous experimental studies have been reported in this field, model based assessments are rare. This study presents a modeling approach to investigate sediment transport in a peatland ditch network. The transport model describes bed erosion, rain-induced bank erosion, floc deposition, and consolidation of the bed. Coupled to a distributed hydrological model, sediment transport was simulated in a 5.2 ha forestry-drained peatland catchment for 2 years after ditch cleaning. Comparing simulation results to measured SS concentrations suggested that the loose peat material, produced during excavation, contributed markedly to elevated SS concentrations immediately after ditch cleaning. Both snowmelt and summer rainstorms contributed critically to annual loads. Springtime peat erosion during snowmelt was driven by ditch flow whereas during summer rainfalls, bank erosion by raindrop impact was identified as an important process. Relating modeling results to observed spatial topographic changes in the ditch network was challenging and the results were difficult to verify. Nevertheless, the model has potential to identify risk areas for erosion. The results demonstrate that modeling is effective in separating the importance of different processes and complements pure experimental approaches. Modeling results can aid planning and designing efficient sediment control measures and guide the focus of experimental studies.

System Dynamic Analysis of a Wind Tunnel Model with Applications to Improve Aerodynamic Data Quality

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Buehrle, Ralph David

1997-01-01

The research investigates the effect of wind tunnel model system dynamics on measured aerodynamic data. During wind tunnel tests designed to obtain lift and drag data, the required aerodynamic measurements are the steady-state balance forces and moments, pressures, and model attitude. However, the wind tunnel model system can be subjected to unsteady aerodynamic and inertial loads which result in oscillatory translations and angular rotations. The steady-state force balance and inertial model attitude measurements are obtained by filtering and averaging data taken during conditions of high model vibrations. The main goals of this research are to characterize the effects of model system dynamics on the measured steady-state aerodynamic data and develop a correction technique to compensate for dynamically induced errors. Equations of motion are formulated for the dynamic response of the model system subjected to arbitrary aerodynamic and inertial inputs. The resulting modal model is examined to study the effects of the model system dynamic response on the aerodynamic data. In particular, the equations of motion are used to describe the effect of dynamics on the inertial model attitude, or angle of attack, measurement system that is used routinely at the NASA Langley Research Center and other wind tunnel facilities throughout the world. This activity was prompted by the inertial model attitude sensor response observed during high levels of model vibration while testing in the National Transonic Facility at the NASA Langley Research Center. The inertial attitude sensor cannot distinguish between the gravitational acceleration and centrifugal accelerations associated with wind tunnel model system vibration, which results in a model attitude measurement bias error. Bias errors over an order of magnitude greater than the required device accuracy were found in the inertial model attitude measurements during dynamic testing of two model systems. Based on a theoretical modal approach, a method using measured vibration amplitudes and measured or calculated modal characteristics of the model system is developed to correct for dynamic bias errors in the model attitude measurements. The correction method is verified through dynamic response tests on two model systems and actual wind tunnel test data.

MIXOR: a computer program for mixed-effects ordinal regression analysis.

PubMed

Hedeker, D; Gibbons, R D

1996-03-01

MIXOR provides maximum marginal likelihood estimates for mixed-effects ordinal probit, logistic, and complementary log-log regression models. These models can be used for analysis of dichotomous and ordinal outcomes from either a clustered or longitudinal design. For clustered data, the mixed-effects model assumes that data within clusters are dependent. The degree of dependency is jointly estimated with the usual model parameters, thus adjusting for dependence resulting from clustering of the data. Similarly, for longitudinal data, the mixed-effects approach can allow for individual-varying intercepts and slopes across time, and can estimate the degree to which these time-related effects vary in the population of individuals. MIXOR uses marginal maximum likelihood estimation, utilizing a Fisher-scoring solution. For the scoring solution, the Cholesky factor of the random-effects variance-covariance matrix is estimated, along with the effects of model covariates. Examples illustrating usage and features of MIXOR are provided.

A detailed numerical simulation of a liquid-propellant rocket engine ground test experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lankford, D. W.; Simmons, M. A.; Heikkinen, B. D.

1992-07-01

A computational simulation of a Liquid Rocket Engine (LRE) ground test experiment was performed using two modeling approaches. The results of the models were compared with selected data to assess the validity of state-of-the-art computational tools for predicting the flowfield and radiative transfer in complex flow environments. The data used for comparison consisted of in-band station radiation measurements obtained in the near-field portion of the plume exhaust. The test article was a subscale LRE with an afterbody, resulting in a large base region. The flight conditions were such that afterburning regions were observed in the plume flowfield. A conventional standard modeling approach underpredicted the extent of afterburning and the associated radiation levels. These results were attributed to the absence of the base flow region which is not accounted for in this model. To assess the effects of the base region a Navier-Stokes model was applied. The results of this calculation indicate that the base recirculation effects are dominant features in the immediate expansion region and resulted in a much improved comparison. However, the downstream in-band station radiation data remained underpredicted by this model.

An analytical elastic plastic contact model with strain hardening and frictional effects for normal and oblique impacts

DOE PAGES

Brake, M. R. W.

2015-02-17

Impact between metallic surfaces is a phenomenon that is ubiquitous in the design and analysis of mechanical systems. We found that to model this phenomenon, a new formulation for frictional elastic–plastic contact between two surfaces is developed. The formulation is developed to consider both frictional, oblique contact (of which normal, frictionless contact is a limiting case) and strain hardening effects. The constitutive model for normal contact is developed as two contiguous loading domains: the elastic regime and a transitionary region in which the plastic response of the materials develops and the elastic response abates. For unloading, the constitutive model ismore » based on an elastic process. Moreover, the normal contact model is assumed to only couple one-way with the frictional/tangential contact model, which results in the normal contact model being independent of the frictional effects. Frictional, tangential contact is modeled using a microslip model that is developed to consider the pressure distribution that develops from the elastic–plastic normal contact. This model is validated through comparisons with experimental results reported in the literature, and is demonstrated to be significantly more accurate than 10 other normal contact models and three other tangential contact models found in the literature.« less

Modeling of Interfacial Modification Effects on Thermal Conductivity of Carbon Nanotube Composites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Clancy, Thomas C.; Gates, Thomas S.

2006-01-01

The effect of functionalization of carbon nanotubes on the thermal conductivity of nanocomposites has been studied using a multi-scale modeling approach. These results predict that grafting linear hydrocarbon chains to the surface of a single wall carbon nanotube with covalent chemical bonds should result in a significant increase in the thermal conductivity of these nanocomposites. This is due to the decrease in the interfacial thermal (Kapitza) resistance between the single wall carbon nanotube and the surrounding polymer matrix upon chemical functionalization. The nanocomposites studied here consist of single wall carbon nanotubes in a bulk poly(ethylene vinyl acetate) matrix. The nanotubes are functionalized by end-grafting linear hydrocarbon chains of varying length to the surface of the nanotube. The effect which this functionalization has on the interfacial thermal resistance is studied by molecular dynamics simulation. Interfacial thermal resistance values are calculated for a range of chemical grafting densities and with several chain lengths. These results are subsequently used in an analytical model to predict the resulting effect on the bulk thermal conductivity of the nanocomposite.

Including the effects of filamentous bulking sludge during the simulation of wastewater treatment plants using a risk assessment model.

PubMed

Flores-Alsina, Xavier; Comas, Joaquim; Rodriguez-Roda, Ignasi; Gernaey, Krist V; Rosen, Christian

2009-10-01

The main objective of this paper is to demonstrate how including the occurrence of filamentous bulking sludge in a secondary clarifier model will affect the predicted process performance during the simulation of WWTPs. The IWA Benchmark Simulation Model No. 2 (BSM2) is hereby used as a simulation case study. Practically, the proposed approach includes a risk assessment model based on a knowledge-based decision tree to detect favourable conditions for the development of filamentous bulking sludge. Once such conditions are detected, the settling characteristics of the secondary clarifier model are automatically changed during the simulation by modifying the settling model parameters to mimic the effect of growth of filamentous bacteria. The simulation results demonstrate that including effects of filamentous bulking in the secondary clarifier model results in a more realistic plant performance. Particularly, during the periods when the conditions for the development of filamentous bulking sludge are favourable--leading to poor activated sludge compaction, low return and waste TSS concentrations and difficulties in maintaining the biomass in the aeration basins--a subsequent reduction in overall pollution removal efficiency is observed. Also, a scenario analysis is conducted to examine i) the influence of sludge retention time (SRT), the external recirculation flow rate (Q(r)) and the air flow rate in the bioreactor (modelled as k(L)a) as factors promoting bulking sludge, and ii) the effect on the model predictions when the settling properties are changed due to a possible proliferation of filamentous microorganisms. Finally, the potentially adverse effects of certain operational procedures are highlighted, since such effects are normally not considered by state-of-the-art models that do not include microbiology-related solids separation problems.

Temperature variability is a key component in accurately forecasting the effects of climate change on pest phenology.

PubMed

Merrill, Scott C; Peairs, Frank B

2017-02-01

Models describing the effects of climate change on arthropod pest ecology are needed to help mitigate and adapt to forthcoming changes. Challenges arise because climate data are at resolutions that do not readily synchronize with arthropod biology. Here we explain how multiple sources of climate and weather data can be synthesized to quantify the effects of climate change on pest phenology. Predictions of phenological events differ substantially between models that incorporate scale-appropriate temperature variability and models that do not. As an illustrative example, we predicted adult emergence of a pest of sunflower, the sunflower stem weevil Cylindrocopturus adspersus (LeConte). Predictions of the timing of phenological events differed by an average of 11 days between models with different temperature variability inputs. Moreover, as temperature variability increases, developmental rates accelerate. Our work details a phenological modeling approach intended to help develop tools to plan for and mitigate the effects of climate change. Results show that selection of scale-appropriate temperature data is of more importance than selecting a climate change emission scenario. Predictions derived without appropriate temperature variability inputs will likely result in substantial phenological event miscalculations. Additionally, results suggest that increased temperature instability will lead to accelerated pest development. © 2016 Society of Chemical Industry. © 2016 Society of Chemical Industry.

Effect of risk perception on epidemic spreading in temporal networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moinet, Antoine; Pastor-Satorras, Romualdo; Barrat, Alain

2018-01-01

Many progresses in the understanding of epidemic spreading models have been obtained thanks to numerous modeling efforts and analytical and numerical studies, considering host populations with very different structures and properties, including complex and temporal interaction networks. Moreover, a number of recent studies have started to go beyond the assumption of an absence of coupling between the spread of a disease and the structure of the contacts on which it unfolds. Models including awareness of the spread have been proposed, to mimic possible precautionary measures taken by individuals that decrease their risk of infection, but have mostly considered static networks. Here, we adapt such a framework to the more realistic case of temporal networks of interactions between individuals. We study the resulting model by analytical and numerical means on both simple models of temporal networks and empirical time-resolved contact data. Analytical results show that the epidemic threshold is not affected by the awareness but that the prevalence can be significantly decreased. Numerical studies on synthetic temporal networks highlight, however, the presence of very strong finite-size effects, resulting in a significant shift of the effective epidemic threshold in the presence of risk awareness. For empirical contact networks, the awareness mechanism leads as well to a shift in the effective threshold and to a strong reduction of the epidemic prevalence.

Skull's acoustic attenuation and dispersion modeling on photoacoustic signal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohammadi, Leila; Behnam, Hamid; Tavakkoli, Jahan; Nasiriavanaki, Mohammadreza

2018-02-01

Despite the promising results of the recent novel transcranial photoacoustic (PA) brain imaging technology, it has been demonstrated that the presence of the skull severely affects the performance of this imaging modality. We theoretically investigate the effects of acoustic heterogeneity induced by skull on the PA signals generated from single particles, with firstly developing a mathematical model for this phenomenon and then explore experimental validation of the results. The model takes into account the frequency dependent attenuation and dispersion effects occur with wave reflection, refraction and mode conversion at the skull surfaces. Numerical simulations based on the developed model are performed for calculating the propagation of photoacoustic waves through the skull. The results show a strong agreement between simulation and ex-vivo study. The findings are as follow: The thickness of the skull is the most PA signal deteriorating factor that affects both its amplitude (attenuation) and phase (distortion). Also we demonstrated that, when the depth of target region is low and it is comparable to the skull thickness, however, the skull-induced distortion becomes increasingly severe and the reconstructed image would be strongly distorted without correcting these effects. It is anticipated that an accurate quantification and modeling of the skull transmission effects would ultimately allow for aberration correction in transcranial PA brain imaging.

Modeling the Effects of Morphine on Simian Immunodeficiency Virus Dynamics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Vaidya, Naveen K.; Ribeiro, Ruy M.; Perelson, Alan S.

Complications of HIV-1 infection in individuals who utilize drugs of abuse is a significant problem, because these drugs have been associated with higher virus replication and accelerated disease progression as well as severe neuropathogenesis. To gain further insight it is important to quantify the effects of drugs of abuse on HIV-1 infection dynamics. Here, we develop a mathematical model that incorporates experimentally observed effects of morphine on inducing HIV-1 co-receptor expression. For comparison we also considered viral dynamic models with cytolytic or noncytolytic effector cell responses. Based on the small sample size Akaike information criterion, these models were inferior tomore » the new model based on changes in co-receptor expression. The model with morphine affecting co-receptor expression agrees well with the experimental data from simian immunodeficiency virus infections in morphine-addicted macaques. Our results show that morphine promotes a target cell subpopulation switch from a lower level of susceptibility to a state that is about 2-orders of magnitude higher in susceptibility to SIV infection. As a result, the proportion of target cells with higher susceptibility remains extremely high in morphine conditioning. Such a morphine-induced population switch not only has adverse effects on the replication rate, but also results in a higher steady state viral load and larger CD4 count drops. Moreover, morphine conditioning may pose extra obstacles to controlling viral load during antiretroviral therapy, such as pre-exposure prophylaxis and post infection treatments. In conclusion, this study provides, for the first time, a viral dynamics model, viral dynamics parameters, and related analytical and simulation results for SIV dynamics under drugs of abuse.« less

Modeling the Effects of Morphine on Simian Immunodeficiency Virus Dynamics

DOE PAGES

Vaidya, Naveen K.; Ribeiro, Ruy M.; Perelson, Alan S.; ...

2016-09-26

Complications of HIV-1 infection in individuals who utilize drugs of abuse is a significant problem, because these drugs have been associated with higher virus replication and accelerated disease progression as well as severe neuropathogenesis. To gain further insight it is important to quantify the effects of drugs of abuse on HIV-1 infection dynamics. Here, we develop a mathematical model that incorporates experimentally observed effects of morphine on inducing HIV-1 co-receptor expression. For comparison we also considered viral dynamic models with cytolytic or noncytolytic effector cell responses. Based on the small sample size Akaike information criterion, these models were inferior tomore » the new model based on changes in co-receptor expression. The model with morphine affecting co-receptor expression agrees well with the experimental data from simian immunodeficiency virus infections in morphine-addicted macaques. Our results show that morphine promotes a target cell subpopulation switch from a lower level of susceptibility to a state that is about 2-orders of magnitude higher in susceptibility to SIV infection. As a result, the proportion of target cells with higher susceptibility remains extremely high in morphine conditioning. Such a morphine-induced population switch not only has adverse effects on the replication rate, but also results in a higher steady state viral load and larger CD4 count drops. Moreover, morphine conditioning may pose extra obstacles to controlling viral load during antiretroviral therapy, such as pre-exposure prophylaxis and post infection treatments. In conclusion, this study provides, for the first time, a viral dynamics model, viral dynamics parameters, and related analytical and simulation results for SIV dynamics under drugs of abuse.« less

Sensitivity Analysis in Sequential Decision Models.

PubMed

Chen, Qiushi; Ayer, Turgay; Chhatwal, Jagpreet

2017-02-01

Sequential decision problems are frequently encountered in medical decision making, which are commonly solved using Markov decision processes (MDPs). Modeling guidelines recommend conducting sensitivity analyses in decision-analytic models to assess the robustness of the model results against the uncertainty in model parameters. However, standard methods of conducting sensitivity analyses cannot be directly applied to sequential decision problems because this would require evaluating all possible decision sequences, typically in the order of trillions, which is not practically feasible. As a result, most MDP-based modeling studies do not examine confidence in their recommended policies. In this study, we provide an approach to estimate uncertainty and confidence in the results of sequential decision models. First, we provide a probabilistic univariate method to identify the most sensitive parameters in MDPs. Second, we present a probabilistic multivariate approach to estimate the overall confidence in the recommended optimal policy considering joint uncertainty in the model parameters. We provide a graphical representation, which we call a policy acceptability curve, to summarize the confidence in the optimal policy by incorporating stakeholders' willingness to accept the base case policy. For a cost-effectiveness analysis, we provide an approach to construct a cost-effectiveness acceptability frontier, which shows the most cost-effective policy as well as the confidence in that for a given willingness to pay threshold. We demonstrate our approach using a simple MDP case study. We developed a method to conduct sensitivity analysis in sequential decision models, which could increase the credibility of these models among stakeholders.

Semiparametric mixed-effects analysis of PK/PD models using differential equations.

PubMed

Wang, Yi; Eskridge, Kent M; Zhang, Shunpu

2008-08-01

Motivated by the use of semiparametric nonlinear mixed-effects modeling on longitudinal data, we develop a new semiparametric modeling approach to address potential structural model misspecification for population pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) analysis. Specifically, we use a set of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) with form dx/dt = A(t)x + B(t) where B(t) is a nonparametric function that is estimated using penalized splines. The inclusion of a nonparametric function in the ODEs makes identification of structural model misspecification feasible by quantifying the model uncertainty and provides flexibility for accommodating possible structural model deficiencies. The resulting model will be implemented in a nonlinear mixed-effects modeling setup for population analysis. We illustrate the method with an application to cefamandole data and evaluate its performance through simulations.

Theory Can Help Structure Regression Models for Projecting Stream Conditions Under Alternative Land Use Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Sickle, J.; Baker, J.; Herlihy, A.

2005-05-01

We built multiple regression models for Emphemeroptera/ Plecoptera/ Tricoptera (EPT) taxon richness and other indicators of biological condition in streams of the Willamette River Basin, Oregon, USA. The models were used to project the changes in condition that would be expected in all 2-4th order streams of the 30000 sq km basin under alternative scenarios of future land use. In formulating the models, we invoked the theory of limiting factors to express the interactive effects of stream power and watershed land use on EPT richness. The resulting models were parsimonious, and they fit the data in our wedge-shaped scatterplots slightly better than did a naive additive-effects model. Just as theory helped formulate our regression models, the models in turn helped us identify a new research need for the Basin's streams. Our future scenarios project that conversions of agricultural to urban uses may dominate landscape dynamics in the basin over the next 50 years. But our models could not detect any difference between the effects of agricultural and urban development in watersheds on stream biota. This result points to an increased need for understanding how agricultural and urban land uses in the Basin differentially influence stream ecosystems.

Causal Mediation Analysis of Survival Outcome with Multiple Mediators.

PubMed

Huang, Yen-Tsung; Yang, Hwai-I

2017-05-01

Mediation analyses have been a popular approach to investigate the effect of an exposure on an outcome through a mediator. Mediation models with multiple mediators have been proposed for continuous and dichotomous outcomes. However, development of multimediator models for survival outcomes is still limited. We present methods for multimediator analyses using three survival models: Aalen additive hazard models, Cox proportional hazard models, and semiparametric probit models. Effects through mediators can be characterized by path-specific effects, for which definitions and identifiability assumptions are provided. We derive closed-form expressions for path-specific effects for the three models, which are intuitively interpreted using a causal diagram. Mediation analyses using Cox models under the rare-outcome assumption and Aalen additive hazard models consider effects on log hazard ratio and hazard difference, respectively; analyses using semiparametric probit models consider effects on difference in transformed survival time and survival probability. The three models were applied to a hepatitis study where we investigated effects of hepatitis C on liver cancer incidence mediated through baseline and/or follow-up hepatitis B viral load. The three methods show consistent results on respective effect scales, which suggest an adverse estimated effect of hepatitis C on liver cancer not mediated through hepatitis B, and a protective estimated effect mediated through the baseline (and possibly follow-up) of hepatitis B viral load. Causal mediation analyses of survival outcome with multiple mediators are developed for additive hazard and proportional hazard and probit models with utility demonstrated in a hepatitis study.

Rectification of nanopores in aprotic solvents - transport properties of nanopores with surface dipoles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Plett, Timothy; Shi, Wenqing; Zeng, Yuhan; Mann, William; Vlassiouk, Ivan; Baker, Lane A.; Siwy, Zuzanna S.

2015-11-01

Nanopores have become a model system to understand transport properties at the nanoscale. We report experiments and modeling of ionic current in aprotic solvents with different dipole moments through conically shaped nanopores in a polycarbonate film and through glass nanopipettes. We focus on solutions of the salt LiClO4, which is of great importance in modeling lithium based batteries. Results presented suggest ion current rectification observed results from two effects: (i) adsorption of Li+ ions to the pore walls, and (ii) a finite dipole moment rendered by adsorbed solvent molecules. Properties of surfaces in various solvents were probed by means of scanning ion conductance microscopy, which confirmed existence of an effectively positive surface potential in aprotic solvents with high dipole moments.Nanopores have become a model system to understand transport properties at the nanoscale. We report experiments and modeling of ionic current in aprotic solvents with different dipole moments through conically shaped nanopores in a polycarbonate film and through glass nanopipettes. We focus on solutions of the salt LiClO4, which is of great importance in modeling lithium based batteries. Results presented suggest ion current rectification observed results from two effects: (i) adsorption of Li+ ions to the pore walls, and (ii) a finite dipole moment rendered by adsorbed solvent molecules. Properties of surfaces in various solvents were probed by means of scanning ion conductance microscopy, which confirmed existence of an effectively positive surface potential in aprotic solvents with high dipole moments. Electronic supplementary information (ESI) available. See DOI: 10.1039/c5nr06340j

Retrofitting and the mu Problem

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Green, Daniel; Weigand, Timo; /SLAC /Stanford U., Phys. Dept.

2010-08-26

One of the challenges of supersymmetry (SUSY) breaking and mediation is generating a {mu} term consistent with the requirements of electro-weak symmetry breaking. The most common approach to the problem is to generate the {mu} term through a SUSY breaking F-term. Often these models produce unacceptably large B{mu} terms as a result. We will present an alternate approach, where the {mu} term is generated directly by non-perturtative effects. The same non-perturbative effect will also retrofit the model of SUSY breaking in such a way that {mu} is at the same scale as masses of the Standard Model superpartners. Because themore » {mu} term is not directly generated by SUSY breaking effects, there is no associated B{mu} problem. These results are demonstrated in a toy model where a stringy instanton generates {mu}.« less

Improved double-multiple streamtube model for the Darrieus-type vertical axis wind turbine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berg, D. E.

Double streamtube codes model the curved blade (Darrieus-type) vertical axis wind turbine (VAWT) as a double actuator fish arrangement (one half) and use conservation of momentum principles to determine the forces acting on the turbine blades and the turbine performance. Sandia National Laboratories developed a double multiple streamtube model for the VAWT which incorporates the effects of the incident wind boundary layer, nonuniform velocity between the upwind and downwind sections of the rotor, dynamic stall effects and local blade Reynolds number variations. The theory underlying this VAWT model is described, as well as the code capabilities. Code results are compared with experimental data from two VAWT's and with the results from another double multiple streamtube and a vortex filament code. The effects of neglecting dynamic stall and horizontal wind velocity distribution are also illustrated.

RF plasma modeling of the Linac4 H- ion source

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mattei, S.; Ohta, M.; Hatayama, A.; Lettry, J.; Kawamura, Y.; Yasumoto, M.; Schmitzer, C.

2013-02-01

This study focuses on the modelling of the ICP RF-plasma in the Linac4 H- ion source currently being constructed at CERN. A self-consistent model of the plasma dynamics with the RF electromagnetic field has been developed by a PIC-MCC method. In this paper, the model is applied to the analysis of a low density plasma discharge initiation, with particular interest on the effect of the external magnetic field on the plasma properties, such as wall loss, electron density and electron energy. The employment of a multi-cusp magnetic field effectively limits the wall losses, particularly in the radial direction. Preliminary results however indicate that a reduced heating efficiency results in such a configuration. The effect is possibly due to trapping of electrons in the multi-cusp magnetic field, preventing their continuous acceleration in the azimuthal direction.

Time-dependent MHD modeling of the global structure of the heliosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liewer, P. C.; Brackbill, J. U.; Karmesin, S. Roy

1995-01-01

We present results from time-dependent modeling of the global structure of the heliosphere with neutral and magnetic field effects included. The magnetic field is assumed parallel to the interstellar flow in this two-dimensional axisymmetric model; the neutrals are treated as a fluid. The effects of interstellar neutrals and the interplanetary magnetic field on the location of the termination shock are studied using the most recent estimate of the interstellar medium parameters, results will be compared to those of Baranov and Zaitsev. The effect of the solar wind - VLISM interaction on the density and velocity of interstellar neutrals within the heliosphere will also be presented and related to observations. The response of the termination shock to the solar cycle variation in the solar wind will be compared to the response found previously using an axisymmetric hydrodynamic model without neutrals.

Quantitative comparison of ligament formulation and pre-strain in finite element analysis of the human lumbar spine.

PubMed

Hortin, Mitchell S; Bowden, Anton E

2016-11-01

Data has been published that quantifies the nonlinear, anisotropic material behaviour and pre-strain behaviour of the anterior longitudinal, supraspinous (SSL), and interspinous ligaments of the human lumbar spine. Additionally, data has been published on localized material properties of the SSL. These results have been incrementally incorporated into a previously validated finite element model of the human lumbar spine. Results suggest that the effects of increased ligament model fidelity on bone strain energy were moderate and the effects on disc pressure were slight, and do not justify a change in modelling strategy for most clinical applications. There were significant effects on the ligament stresses of the ligaments that were directly modified, suggesting that these phenomena should be included in FE models where ligament stresses are the desired metric.

Application of zero-inflated poisson mixed models in prognostic factors of hepatitis C.

PubMed

Akbarzadeh Baghban, Alireza; Pourhoseingholi, Asma; Zayeri, Farid; Jafari, Ali Akbar; Alavian, Seyed Moayed

2013-01-01

In recent years, hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection represents a major public health problem. Evaluation of risk factors is one of the solutions which help protect people from the infection. This study aims to employ zero-inflated Poisson mixed models to evaluate prognostic factors of hepatitis C. The data was collected from a longitudinal study during 2005-2010. First, mixed Poisson regression (PR) model was fitted to the data. Then, a mixed zero-inflated Poisson model was fitted with compound Poisson random effects. For evaluating the performance of the proposed mixed model, standard errors of estimators were compared. The results obtained from mixed PR showed that genotype 3 and treatment protocol were statistically significant. Results of zero-inflated Poisson mixed model showed that age, sex, genotypes 2 and 3, the treatment protocol, and having risk factors had significant effects on viral load of HCV patients. Of these two models, the estimators of zero-inflated Poisson mixed model had the minimum standard errors. The results showed that a mixed zero-inflated Poisson model was the almost best fit. The proposed model can capture serial dependence, additional overdispersion, and excess zeros in the longitudinal count data.

An optimal control model approach to the design of compensators for simulator delay

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Baron, S.; Lancraft, R.; Caglayan, A.

1982-01-01

The effects of display delay on pilot performance and workload and of the design of the filters to ameliorate these effects were investigated. The optimal control model for pilot/vehicle analysis was used both to determine the potential delay effects and to design the compensators. The model was applied to a simple roll tracking task and to a complex hover task. The results confirm that even small delays can degrade performance and impose a workload penalty. A time-domain compensator designed by using the optimal control model directly appears capable of providing extensive compensation for these effects even in multi-input, multi-output problems.

Understanding asteroid collisional history through experimental and numerical studies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Davis, Donald R.; Ryan, Eileen V.; Weidenschilling, S. J.

1991-01-01

Asteroids can lose angular momentum due to so called splash effect, the analog to the drain effect for cratering impacts. Numerical code with the splash effect incorporated was applied to study the simultaneous evolution of asteroid sized and spins. Results are presented on the spin changes of asteroids due to various physical effects that are incorporated in the described model. The goal was to understand the interplay between the evolution of sizes and spins over a wide and plausible range of model parameters. A single starting population was used both for size distribution and the spin distribution of asteroids and the changes in the spins were calculated over solar system history for different model parameters. It is shown that there is a strong coupling between the size and spin evolution, that the observed relative spindown of asteroids approximately 100 km diameter is likely to be the result of the angular momentum splash effect.

Understanding asteroid collisional history through experimental and numerical studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davis, Donald R.; Ryan, Eileen V.; Weidenschilling, S. J.

1991-06-01

Asteroids can lose angular momentum due to so called splash effect, the analog to the drain effect for cratering impacts. Numerical code with the splash effect incorporated was applied to study the simultaneous evolution of asteroid sized and spins. Results are presented on the spin changes of asteroids due to various physical effects that are incorporated in the described model. The goal was to understand the interplay between the evolution of sizes and spins over a wide and plausible range of model parameters. A single starting population was used both for size distribution and the spin distribution of asteroids and the changes in the spins were calculated over solar system history for different model parameters. It is shown that there is a strong coupling between the size and spin evolution, that the observed relative spindown of asteroids approximately 100 km diameter is likely to be the result of the angular momentum splash effect.

Hepatoprotective effects of Poly-[hemoglobin-superoxide dismutase-catalase-carbonic anhydrase] on alcohol-damaged primary rat hepatocyte culture in vitro.

PubMed

Jiang, Wenhua; Bian, Yuzhu; Wang, Zhenghui; Chang, Thomas Ming Swi

2017-02-01

We have prepared a novel nanobiotherapeutic, Poly-[hemoglobin-superoxide dismutase-catalase-carbonic anhydrase], which not only transports both oxygen and carbon dioxide but also a therapeutic antioxidant. Our previous study in a severe sustained 90 min hemorrhagic shock rat model shows that it has a hepatoprotective effect. We investigate its hepatoprotective effect further in this present report using an alcohol-damaged primary hepatocyte culture model. Results show that it significantly reduced ethanol-induced AST release, lipid peroxidation, and ROS production in rat primary hepatocytes culture. It also significantly enhanced the viability of ethanol-treated hepatocytes. Thus, the result shows that Poly-[hemoglobin-superoxide dismutase-catalase-carbonic anhydrase] also has some hepatoprotective effects against alcohol-induced injury in in vitro rat primary hepatocytes cell culture. This collaborate our previous observation of its hepatoprotective effect in a severe sustained 90-min hemorrhagic shock rat model.

Rigorous control conditions diminish treatment effects in weight loss randomized controlled trials

PubMed Central

Dawson, John A.; Kaiser, Kathryn A.; Affuso, Olivia; Cutter, Gary R.; Allison, David B.

2015-01-01

Background It has not been established whether control conditions with large weight losses (WLs) diminish expected treatment effects in WL or prevention of weight gain (PWG) randomized controlled trials (RCTs). Subjects/Methods We performed a meta-analysis of 239 WL/PWG RCTs that include a control group and at least one treatment group. A maximum likelihood meta-analysis framework is used in order to model and understand the relationship between treatment effects and control group outcomes. Results Under the informed model, an increase in control group WL of one kilogram corresponds with an expected shrinkage of the treatment effect by 0.309 kg [95% CI (−0.480, −0.138), p = 0.00081]; this result is robust against violations of the model assumptions. Conclusions We find that control conditions with large weight losses diminish expected treatment effects. Our investigation may be helpful to clinicians as they design future WL/PWG studies. PMID:26449419

Full spectral optical modeling of quantum-dot-converted elements for light-emitting diodes considering reabsorption and reemission effect.

PubMed

Li, Jia-Sheng; Tang, Yong; Li, Zong-Tao; Cao, Kai; Yan, Cai-Man; Ding, Xin-Rui

2018-07-20

Quantum dots (QDs) have attracted significant attention in light-emitting diode (LED) illumination and display applications, owing to their high quantum yield and unique spectral properties. However, an effective optical model of quantum-dot-converted elements (QDCEs) for (LEDs) that entirely considers the reabsorption and reemission effect is lacking. This suppresses the design of QDCE structures and further investigation of light-extraction/conversion mechanisms in QDCEs. In this paper, we proposed a full spectral optical modeling method for QDCEs packaged in LEDs, entirely considering the reabsorption and reemission effect, and its results are compared with traditional models without reabsorption or reemission. The comparisons indicate that the QDCE absorption loss of QD emission light is a major factor decreasing the radiant efficacy of LEDs, which should be considered when designing QDCE structures. According to the measurements of fabricated LEDs, only calculation results that entirely consider reabsorption and reemission show good agreement with experimental radiant efficacy, spectra, and peak wavelength at the same down-conversion efficiency. Consequently, it is highly expected that QDCE will be modeled considering the reabsorption and reemission events. This study provides a simple and effective modeling method for QDCEs, which shows great potential for their structure designs and fundamental investigations.

Cognitive aging on latent constructs for visual processing capacity: a novel structural equation modeling framework with causal assumptions based on a theory of visual attention.

PubMed

Nielsen, Simon; Wilms, L Inge

2014-01-01

We examined the effects of normal aging on visual cognition in a sample of 112 healthy adults aged 60-75. A testbattery was designed to capture high-level measures of visual working memory and low-level measures of visuospatial attention and memory. To answer questions of how cognitive aging affects specific aspects of visual processing capacity, we used confirmatory factor analyses in Structural Equation Modeling (SEM; Model 2), informed by functional structures that were modeled with path analyses in SEM (Model 1). The results show that aging effects were selective to measures of visual processing speed compared to visual short-term memory (VSTM) capacity (Model 2). These results are consistent with some studies reporting selective aging effects on processing speed, and inconsistent with other studies reporting aging effects on both processing speed and VSTM capacity. In the discussion we argue that this discrepancy may be mediated by differences in age ranges, and variables of demography. The study demonstrates that SEM is a sensitive method to detect cognitive aging effects even within a narrow age-range, and a useful approach to structure the relationships between measured variables, and the cognitive functional foundation they supposedly represent.

Full spectral optical modeling of quantum-dot-converted elements for light-emitting diodes considering reabsorption and reemission effect

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Jia-Sheng; Tang, Yong; Li, Zong-Tao; Cao, Kai; Yan, Cai-Man; Ding, Xin-Rui

2018-07-01

Quantum dots (QDs) have attracted significant attention in light-emitting diode (LED) illumination and display applications, owing to their high quantum yield and unique spectral properties. However, an effective optical model of quantum-dot-converted elements (QDCEs) for (LEDs) that entirely considers the reabsorption and reemission effect is lacking. This suppresses the design of QDCE structures and further investigation of light-extraction/conversion mechanisms in QDCEs. In this paper, we proposed a full spectral optical modeling method for QDCEs packaged in LEDs, entirely considering the reabsorption and reemission effect, and its results are compared with traditional models without reabsorption or reemission. The comparisons indicate that the QDCE absorption loss of QD emission light is a major factor decreasing the radiant efficacy of LEDs, which should be considered when designing QDCE structures. According to the measurements of fabricated LEDs, only calculation results that entirely consider reabsorption and reemission show good agreement with experimental radiant efficacy, spectra, and peak wavelength at the same down-conversion efficiency. Consequently, it is highly expected that QDCE will be modeled considering the reabsorption and reemission events. This study provides a simple and effective modeling method for QDCEs, which shows great potential for their structure designs and fundamental investigations.

From accuracy to patient outcome and cost-effectiveness evaluations of diagnostic tests and biomarkers: an exemplary modelling study

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Proper evaluation of new diagnostic tests is required to reduce overutilization and to limit potential negative health effects and costs related to testing. A decision analytic modelling approach may be worthwhile when a diagnostic randomized controlled trial is not feasible. We demonstrate this by assessing the cost-effectiveness of modified transesophageal echocardiography (TEE) compared with manual palpation for the detection of atherosclerosis in the ascending aorta. Methods Based on a previous diagnostic accuracy study, actual Dutch reimbursement data, and evidence from literature we developed a Markov decision analytic model. Cost-effectiveness of modified TEE was assessed for a life time horizon and a health care perspective. Prevalence rates of atherosclerosis were age-dependent and low as well as high rates were applied. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis was applied. Results The model synthesized all available evidence on the risk of stroke in cardiac surgery patients. The modified TEE strategy consistently resulted in more adapted surgical procedures and, hence, a lower risk of stroke and a slightly higher number of life-years. With 10% prevalence of atherosclerosis the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was €4,651 and €481 per quality-adjusted life year in 55-year-old men and women, respectively. In all patients aged 65 years or older the modified TEE strategy was cost saving and resulted in additional health benefits. Conclusions Decision analytic modelling to assess the cost-effectiveness of a new diagnostic test based on characteristics, costs and effects of the test itself and of the subsequent treatment options is both feasible and valuable. Our case study on modified TEE suggests that it may reduce the risk of stroke in cardiac surgery patients older than 55 years at acceptable cost-effectiveness levels. PMID:23368927

Effect of Microgravity on Several Visual Functions During STS Shuttle Missions: Visual Function Tester-model 1 (VFT-1)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Oneal, Melvin R.; Task, H. Lee; Genco, Louis V.

1992-01-01

Viewgraphs on the effect of microgravity on several visual functions during STS shuttle missions are presented. The purpose, methods, results, and discussion are discussed. The visual function tester model 1 is used.

On land-use modeling: A treatise of satellite imagery data and misclassification error

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sandler, Austin M.

Recent availability of satellite-based land-use data sets, including data sets with contiguous spatial coverage over large areas, relatively long temporal coverage, and fine-scale land cover classifications, is providing new opportunities for land-use research. However, care must be used when working with these datasets due to misclassification error, which causes inconsistent parameter estimates in the discrete choice models typically used to model land-use. I therefore adapt the empirical correction methods developed for other contexts (e.g., epidemiology) so that they can be applied to land-use modeling. I then use a Monte Carlo simulation, and an empirical application using actual satellite imagery data from the Northern Great Plains, to compare the results of a traditional model ignoring misclassification to those from models accounting for misclassification. Results from both the simulation and application indicate that ignoring misclassification will lead to biased results. Even seemingly insignificant levels of misclassification error (e.g., 1%) result in biased parameter estimates, which alter marginal effects enough to affect policy inference. At the levels of misclassification typical in current satellite imagery datasets (e.g., as high as 35%), ignoring misclassification can lead to systematically erroneous land-use probabilities and substantially biased marginal effects. The correction methods I propose, however, generate consistent parameter estimates and therefore consistent estimates of marginal effects and predicted land-use probabilities.

Effect of Anisotropy on the Resilient Behaviour of a Granular Material in Low Traffic Pavement

PubMed Central

Jing, Peng; Nowamooz, Hossein; Chazallon, Cyrille

2017-01-01

Granular materials are often used in pavement structures. The influence of anisotropy on the mechanical behaviour of granular materials is very important. The coupled effects of water content and fine content usually lead to more complex anisotropic behaviour. With a repeated load triaxial test (RLTT), it is possible to measure the anisotropic deformation behaviour of granular materials. This article initially presents an experimental study of the resilient repeated load response of a compacted clayey natural sand with three fine contents and different water contents. Based on anisotropic behaviour, the non-linear resilient model (Boyce model) is improved by the radial anisotropy coefficient γ3 instead of the axial anisotropy coefficient γ1. The results from both approaches (γ1 and γ3) are compared with the measured volumetric and deviatoric responses. These results confirm the capacity of the improved model to capture the general trend of the experiments. Finally, finite element calculations are performed with CAST3M in order to validate the improvement of the modified Boyce model (from γ1 to γ3). The modelling results indicate that the modified Boyce model with γ3 is more widely available in different water contents and different fine contents for this granular material. Besides, based on the results, the coupled effects of water content and fine content on the deflection of the structures can also be observed. PMID:29207504

Effect of Anisotropy on the Resilient Behaviour of a Granular Material in Low Traffic Pavement.

PubMed

Jing, Peng; Nowamooz, Hossein; Chazallon, Cyrille

2017-12-03

Granular materials are often used in pavement structures. The influence of anisotropy on the mechanical behaviour of granular materials is very important. The coupled effects of water content and fine content usually lead to more complex anisotropic behaviour. With a repeated load triaxial test (RLTT), it is possible to measure the anisotropic deformation behaviour of granular materials. This article initially presents an experimental study of the resilient repeated load response of a compacted clayey natural sand with three fine contents and different water contents. Based on anisotropic behaviour, the non-linear resilient model (Boyce model) is improved by the radial anisotropy coefficient γ ₃ instead of the axial anisotropy coefficient γ ₁. The results from both approaches ( γ ₁ and γ ₃) are compared with the measured volumetric and deviatoric responses. These results confirm the capacity of the improved model to capture the general trend of the experiments. Finally, finite element calculations are performed with CAST3M in order to validate the improvement of the modified Boyce model (from γ ₁ to γ ₃). The modelling results indicate that the modified Boyce model with γ ₃ is more widely available in different water contents and different fine contents for this granular material. Besides, based on the results, the coupled effects of water content and fine content on the deflection of the structures can also be observed.

Antacid effects of Chinese herbal prescriptions assessed by a modified artificial stomach model

PubMed Central

Wu, Tsung-Hsiu; Chen, I-Chin; Chen, Lih-Chi

2010-01-01

AIM: To assess the antacid effects of the tonic Chinese herbal prescriptions, Si-Jun-Zi-Tang (SJZT) and Shen-Ling-Bai-Zhu-San (SLBZS). METHODS: Decoctions of the tonic Chinese herbal prescriptions, SJZT and SLBZS, were prepared according to Chinese original documents. The pH of the prescription decoctions and their neutralizing effects on artificial gastric acids were determined and compared with water and the active controls, sodium bicarbonate and colloidal aluminum phosphate. A modified model of Vatier’s artificial stomach was used to determine the duration of consistent neutralization effect on artificial gastric acids. The neutralization capacity in vitro was determined with the titration method of Fordtran’s model. RESULTS: The results showed that both SJZT and SLBZS have antacid effects in vitro. Compared with the water group, SJZT and SLBZS were found to possess significant gastric acid neutralizing effects. The duration for consistent neutralization of SLBZS was significantly longer than that of water. Also, SLBZS and SJZT exhibited significant antacid capacities compared to water. CONCLUSION: SJZT and SLBZS were consistently active in the artificial stomach model and are suggested to have antacid effects similar to the active control drugs. PMID:20845514

The effects of geometric uncertainties on computational modelling of knee biomechanics

PubMed Central

Fisher, John; Wilcox, Ruth

2017-01-01

The geometry of the articular components of the knee is an important factor in predicting joint mechanics in computational models. There are a number of uncertainties in the definition of the geometry of cartilage and meniscus, and evaluating the effects of these uncertainties is fundamental to understanding the level of reliability of the models. In this study, the sensitivity of knee mechanics to geometric uncertainties was investigated by comparing polynomial-based and image-based knee models and varying the size of meniscus. The results suggested that the geometric uncertainties in cartilage and meniscus resulting from the resolution of MRI and the accuracy of segmentation caused considerable effects on the predicted knee mechanics. Moreover, even if the mathematical geometric descriptors can be very close to the imaged-based articular surfaces, the detailed contact pressure distribution produced by the mathematical geometric descriptors was not the same as that of the image-based model. However, the trends predicted by the models based on mathematical geometric descriptors were similar to those of the imaged-based models. PMID:28879008

Effectively-truncated large-scale shell-model calculations and nuclei around 100Sn

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gargano, A.; Coraggio, L.; Itaco, N.

2017-09-01

This paper presents a short overview of a procedure we have recently introduced, dubbed the double-step truncation method, which is aimed to reduce the computational complexity of large-scale shell-model calculations. Within this procedure, one starts with a realistic shell-model Hamiltonian defined in a large model space, and then, by analyzing the effective single particle energies of this Hamiltonian as a function of the number of valence protons and/or neutrons, reduced model spaces are identified containing only the single-particle orbitals relevant to the description of the spectroscopic properties of a certain class of nuclei. As a final step, new effective shell-model Hamiltonians defined within the reduced model spaces are derived by way of a unitary transformation of the original large-scale Hamiltonian. A detailed account of this transformation is given and the merit of the double-step truncation method is illustrated by discussing few selected results for 96Mo, described as four protons and four neutrons outside 88Sr. Some new preliminary results for light odd-tin isotopes from A = 101 to 107 are also reported.

Examining the Effects of Video Modeling and Prompts to Teach Activities of Daily Living Skills.

PubMed

Aldi, Catarina; Crigler, Alexandra; Kates-McElrath, Kelly; Long, Brian; Smith, Hillary; Rehak, Kim; Wilkinson, Lisa

2016-12-01

Video modeling has been shown to be effective in teaching a number of skills to learners diagnosed with autism spectrum disorders (ASD). In this study, we taught two young men diagnosed with ASD three different activities of daily living skills (ADLS) using point-of-view video modeling. Results indicated that both participants met criterion for all ADLS. Participants did not maintain mastery criterion at a 1-month follow-up, but did score above baseline at maintenance with and without video modeling. • Point-of-view video models may be an effective intervention to teach daily living skills. • Video modeling with handheld portable devices (Apple iPod or iPad) can be just as effective as video modeling with stationary viewing devices (television or computer). • The use of handheld portable devices (Apple iPod and iPad) makes video modeling accessible and possible in a wide variety of environments.

Effects of sounding temperature assimilation on weather forecasting - Model dependence studies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ghil, M.; Halem, M.; Atlas, R.

1979-01-01

In comparing various methods for the assimilation of remote sounding information into numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, the problem of model dependence for the different results obtained becomes important. The paper investigates two aspects of the model dependence question: (1) the effect of increasing horizontal resolution within a given model on the assimilation of sounding data, and (2) the effect of using two entirely different models with the same assimilation method and sounding data. Tentative conclusions reached are: first, that model improvement as exemplified by increased resolution, can act in the same direction as judicious 4-D assimilation of remote sounding information, to improve 2-3 day numerical weather forecasts. Second, that the time continuous 4-D methods developed at GLAS have similar beneficial effects when used in the assimilation of remote sounding information into NWP models with very different numerical and physical characteristics.

An improved model for computing the trajectories of conductive particles in roll-type electrostatic separator for recycling metals from WEEE.

PubMed

Wu, Jiang; Li, Jia; Xu, Zhenming

2009-08-15

Electrostatic separation presents an effective and environmentally friendly way for recycling metals and nonmetals from ground waste electrical and electronic equipment (WEEE). For this process, the trajectory of conductive particle is significant and some models have been established. However, the results of previous researches are limited by some simplifying assumptions and lead to a notable discrepancy between the model prediction and the experimental results. In the present research, a roll-type corona-electrostatic separator and ground printed circuit board (PCB) wastes were used to investigate the trajectory of the conductive particle. Two factors, the air drag force and the different charging situation, were introduced into the improved model. Their effects were analyzed and an improved model for the theoretical trajectory of conductive particle was established. Compared with the previous one, the improved model shows a good agreement with the experimental results. It provides a positive guidance for designing of separator and makes a progress for recycling the metals and nonmetals from WEEE.

AQUATOX coupled foodweb model for ecosystem risk assessment of Polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) in lake ecosystems.

PubMed

Zhang, Lulu; Liu, Jingling

2014-08-01

The AQUATOX model considers the direct toxic effects of chemicals and their indirect effects through foodwebs. For this study, the AQUATOX model was applied to evaluating the ecological risk of Polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) in a highly anthropogenically disturbed lake-Baiyangdian Lake. Calibration and validation results indicated that the model can adequately describe the dynamics of 18 biological populations. Sensitivity analysis results suggested that the model is highly sensitive to temperature limitation. PBDEs risk estimate results demonstrate that estimated risk for natural ecosystems cannot be fully explained by single species toxicity data alone. The AQUATOX model could provide a good basis in ascertaining ecological protection levels of "chemicals of concern" for aquatic ecosystems. Therefore, AQUATOX can potentially be used to provide necessary information corresponding to early warning and rapid forecasting of pollutant transport and fate in the management of chemicals that put aquatic ecosystems at risk. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effectiveness of the clinical teaching associate model to improve clinical learning outcomes: a randomized controlled trial.

PubMed

Parchebafieh, Samaneh; Gholizadeh, Leila; Lakdizaji, Sima; Ghiasvandiyan, Shahrzad; Davoodi, Arefeh

2014-01-01

This study examined the effectiveness of the clinical teaching associate (CTA) model to improve clinical learning outcomes in nursing students. Students were randomly allocated to either the CTA (n = 28) or traditional training group (n = 32), and their clinical knowledge, skills, and satisfaction with the learning experience were assessed and compared. The results showed that the CTA model was equally effective in improving clinical knowledge, skills, and satisfaction of nursing students.

Accurate diode behavioral model with reverse recovery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Banáš, Stanislav; Divín, Jan; Dobeš, Josef; Paňko, Václav

2018-01-01

This paper deals with the comprehensive behavioral model of p-n junction diode containing reverse recovery effect, applicable to all standard SPICE simulators supporting Verilog-A language. The model has been successfully used in several production designs, which require its full complexity, robustness and set of tuning parameters comparable with standard compact SPICE diode model. The model is like standard compact model scalable with area and temperature and can be used as a stand-alone diode or as a part of more complex device macro-model, e.g. LDMOS, JFET, bipolar transistor. The paper briefly presents the state of the art followed by the chapter describing the model development and achieved solutions. During precise model verification some of them were found non-robust or poorly converging and replaced by more robust solutions, demonstrated in the paper. The measurement results of different technologies and different devices compared with a simulation using the new behavioral model are presented as the model validation. The comparison of model validation in time and frequency domains demonstrates that the implemented reverse recovery effect with correctly extracted parameters improves the model simulation results not only in switching from ON to OFF state, which is often published, but also its impedance/admittance frequency dependency in GHz range. Finally the model parameter extraction and the comparison with SPICE compact models containing reverse recovery effect is presented.

Experimental evaluation of blockage ratio and plenum evacuation system flow effects on pressure distribution for bodies of revolution in 0.1 scale model test section of NASA Lewis Research Center's proposed altitude wind tunnel

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Burley, Richard R.; Harrington, Douglas E.

1987-01-01

An experimental investigation was conducted in the slotted test section of the 0.1-scale model of the proposed Altitude Wind Tunnel to evaluate wall interference effects at tunnel Mach numbers from 0.70 to 0.95 on bodies of revolution with blockage rates of 0.43, 3, 6, and 12 percent. The amount of flow that had to be removed from the plenum chamber (which surrounded the slotted test section) by the plenum evacuation system (PES) to eliminate wall interference effects was determined. The effectiveness of tunnel reentry flaps in removing flow from the plenum chamber was examined. The 0.43-percent blockage model was the only one free of wall interference effects with no PES flow. Surface pressures on the forward part of the other models were greater than interference-free results and were not influenced by PES flow. Interference-free results were achieved on the aft part of the 3- and 6-percent blockage models with the proper amount of PES flow. The required PES flow was substantially reduced by opening the reentry flaps.

Low-Order Modeling of Dynamic Stall on Airfoils in Incompressible Flow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Narsipur, Shreyas

Unsteady aerodynamics has been a topic of research since the late 1930's and has increased in popularity among researchers studying dynamic stall in helicopters, insect/bird flight, micro air vehicles, wind-turbine aerodynamics, and ow-energy harvesting devices. Several experimental and computational studies have helped researchers gain a good understanding of the unsteady ow phenomena, but have proved to be expensive and time-intensive for rapid design and analysis purposes. Since the early 1970's, the push to develop low-order models to solve unsteady ow problems has resulted in several semi-empirical models capable of effectively analyzing unsteady aerodynamics in a fraction of the time required by high-order methods. However, due to the various complexities associated with time-dependent flows, several empirical constants and curve fits derived from existing experimental and computational results are required by the semi-empirical models to be an effective analysis tool. The aim of the current work is to develop a low-order model capable of simulating incompressible dynamic-stall type ow problems with a focus on accurately modeling the unsteady ow physics with the aim of reducing empirical dependencies. The lumped-vortex-element (LVE) algorithm is used as the baseline unsteady inviscid model to which augmentations are applied to model unsteady viscous effects. The current research is divided into two phases. The first phase focused on augmentations aimed at modeling pure unsteady trailing-edge boundary-layer separation and stall without leading-edge vortex (LEV) formation. The second phase is targeted at including LEV shedding capabilities to the LVE algorithm and combining with the trailing-edge separation model from phase one to realize a holistic, optimized, and robust low-order dynamic stall model. In phase one, initial augmentations to theory were focused on modeling the effects of steady trailing-edge separation by implementing a non-linear decambering flap to model the effect of the separated boundary-layer. Unsteady RANS results for several pitch and plunge motions showed that the differences in aerodynamic loads between steady and unsteady flows can be attributed to the boundary-layer convection lag, which can be modeled by choosing an appropriate value of the time lag parameter, tau2. In order to provide appropriate viscous corrections to inviscid unsteady calculations, the non-linear decambering flap is applied with a time lag determined by the tau2 value, which was found to be independent of motion kinematics for a given airfoil and Reynolds number. The predictions of the aerodynamic loads, unsteady stall, hysteresis loops, and ow reattachment from the low-order model agree well with CFD and experimental results, both for individual cases and for trends between motions. The model was also found to perform as well as existing semi-empirical models while using only a single empirically defined parameter. Inclusion of LEV shedding capabilities and combining the resulting algorithm with phase one's trailing-edge separation model was the primary objective of phase two. Computational results at low and high Reynolds numbers were used to analyze the ow morphology of the LEV to identify the common surface signature associated with LEV initiation at both low and high Reynolds numbers and relate it to the critical leading-edge suction parameter (LESP ) to control the initiation and termination of LEV shedding in the low-order model. The critical LESP, like the tau2 parameter, was found to be independent of motion kinematics for a given airfoil and Reynolds number. Results from the final low-order model compared excellently with CFD and experimental solutions, both in terms of aerodynamic loads and vortex ow pattern predictions. Overall, the final combined dynamic stall model that resulted from the current research was successful in accurately modeling the physics of unsteady ow thereby helping restrict the number of empirical coefficients to just two variables while successfully modeling the aerodynamic forces and ow patterns in a simple and precise manner.

Disease Mapping of Zero-excessive Mesothelioma Data in Flanders

PubMed Central

Neyens, Thomas; Lawson, Andrew B.; Kirby, Russell S.; Nuyts, Valerie; Watjou, Kevin; Aregay, Mehreteab; Carroll, Rachel; Nawrot, Tim S.; Faes, Christel

2016-01-01

Purpose To investigate the distribution of mesothelioma in Flanders using Bayesian disease mapping models that account for both an excess of zeros and overdispersion. Methods The numbers of newly diagnosed mesothelioma cases within all Flemish municipalities between 1999 and 2008 were obtained from the Belgian Cancer Registry. To deal with overdispersion, zero-inflation and geographical association, the hurdle combined model was proposed, which has three components: a Bernoulli zero-inflation mixture component to account for excess zeros, a gamma random effect to adjust for overdispersion and a normal conditional autoregressive random effect to attribute spatial association. This model was compared with other existing methods in literature. Results The results indicate that hurdle models with a random effects term accounting for extra-variance in the Bernoulli zero-inflation component fit the data better than hurdle models that do not take overdispersion in the occurrence of zeros into account. Furthermore, traditional models that do not take into account excessive zeros but contain at least one random effects term that models extra-variance in the counts have better fits compared to their hurdle counterparts. In other words, the extra-variability, due to an excess of zeros, can be accommodated by spatially structured and/or unstructured random effects in a Poisson model such that the hurdle mixture model is not necessary. Conclusions Models taking into account zero-inflation do not always provide better fits to data with excessive zeros than less complex models. In this study, a simple conditional autoregressive model identified a cluster in mesothelioma cases near a former asbestos processing plant (Kapelle-op-den-Bos). This observation is likely linked with historical local asbestos exposures. Future research will clarify this. PMID:27908590

A Pilot/Vehicle Model Analysis of the Effects of Motion Cues on Harrier Control Tasks.

DTIC Science & Technology

1983-09-01

7 D- R136 291 A PILOT/VEHILE MODEL ANALYSIS OF THE EFFECTS OF MOTION i/i LS 91 CUES ON HARRIER C..(U) BOLT BERANEK AND NEWMAN INC CAMBRIDGE MA S...provided by well-designed platform motion systems , the actual rovement of performance or training effectiveness that results from incorporating these...for the Harrier AV-8B. The effects of providing motion cues via an idealized platform motion system or a g-seat device are predicted with the model, and

Including Finite Surface Span Effects in Empirical Jet-Surface Interaction Noise Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brown, Clifford A.

2016-01-01

The effect of finite span on the jet-surface interaction noise source and the jet mixing noise shielding and reflection effects is considered using recently acquired experimental data. First, the experimental setup and resulting data are presented with particular attention to the role of surface span on far-field noise. These effects are then included in existing empirical models that have previously assumed that all surfaces are semi-infinite. This extended abstract briefly describes the experimental setup and data leaving the empirical modeling aspects for the final paper.

A comprehensive model to determine the effects of temperature and species fluctuations on reaction rates in turbulent reacting flows

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chinitz, W.; Foy, E.; Rowan, G.; Goldstein, D.

1982-01-01

The use of probability theory to determine the effects of turbulent fluctuations on reaction rates in turbulent combustion systems is briefly reviewed. Results are presented for the effect of species fluctuations in particular. It is found that turbulent fluctuations of species act to reduce the reaction rates, in contrast with the temperature fluctuations previously determined to increase Arrhenius reaction rate constants. For the temperature fluctuations, a criterion is set forth for determining if, in a given region of a turbulent flow field, the temperature can be expected to exhibit ramp like fluctuations. Using the above results, along with results previously obtained, a model is described for testing the effects of turbulent fluctuations of temperature and species on reaction rates in computer programs dealing with turbulent reacting flows. An alternative model which employs three variable probability density functions (temperature and two species) and is currently being formulated is discussed as well.

Free-space optical channel simulator for weak-turbulence conditions.

PubMed

Bykhovsky, Dima

2015-11-01

Free-space optical (FSO) communication may be severely influenced by the inevitable turbulence effect that results in channel gain fluctuations and fading. The objective of this paper is to provide a simple and effective simulator of the weak-turbulence FSO channel that emulates the influence of the temporal covariance effect. Specifically, the proposed model is based on lognormal distributed samples with a corresponding correlation time. The simulator is based on the solution of the first-order stochastic differential equation (SDE). The results of the provided SDE analysis reveal its efficacy for turbulent channel modeling.

Specific heat capacity of molten salt-based alumina nanofluid.

PubMed

Lu, Ming-Chang; Huang, Chien-Hsun

2013-06-21

There is no consensus on the effect of nanoparticle (NP) addition on the specific heat capacity (SHC) of fluids. In addition, the predictions from the existing model have a large discrepancy from the measured SHCs in nanofluids. We show that the SHC of the molten salt-based alumina nanofluid decreases with reducing particle size and increasing particle concentration. The NP size-dependent SHC is resulted from an augmentation of the nanolayer effect as particle size reduces. A model considering the nanolayer effect which supports the experimental results was proposed.

Specific heat capacity of molten salt-based alumina nanofluid

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

There is no consensus on the effect of nanoparticle (NP) addition on the specific heat capacity (SHC) of fluids. In addition, the predictions from the existing model have a large discrepancy from the measured SHCs in nanofluids. We show that the SHC of the molten salt-based alumina nanofluid decreases with reducing particle size and increasing particle concentration. The NP size-dependent SHC is resulted from an augmentation of the nanolayer effect as particle size reduces. A model considering the nanolayer effect which supports the experimental results was proposed. PMID:23800321

Planning paths through a spatial hierarchy - Eliminating stair-stepping effects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Slack, Marc G.

1989-01-01

Stair-stepping effects are a result of the loss of spatial continuity resulting from the decomposition of space into a grid. This paper presents a path planning algorithm which eliminates stair-stepping effects induced by the grid-based spatial representation. The algorithm exploits a hierarchical spatial model to efficiently plan paths for a mobile robot operating in dynamic domains. The spatial model and path planning algorithm map to a parallel machine, allowing the system to operate incrementally, thereby accounting for unexpected events in the operating space.

Joint Effects of Ambient Air Pollutants on Pediatric Asthma ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Background: Because ambient air pollution exposure occurs in the form of mixtures, consideration of joint effects of multiple pollutants may advance our understanding of air pollution health effects. Methods: We assessed the joint effect of selected ambient air pollutant combinations (groups of oxidant, secondary, traffic, power plant, and criteria pollutants constructed using combinations of criteria gases, fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and PM2.5 components) on warm season pediatric asthma emergency department (ED) visits in Atlanta during 1998-2004. Joint effects were assessed using multi-pollutant Poisson generalized linear models controlling for time trends, meteorology and daily non-asthma respiratory ED visit counts. Rate ratios (RR) were calculated for the combined effect of an interquartile-range increment in the concentration of each pollutant. Results: Increases in all of the selected pollutant combinations were associated with increases in pediatric asthma ED visits [e.g., joint effect rate ratio=1.13 (95% confidence interval 1.06-1.21) for criteria pollutants (including ozone, carbon monoxide, nitrogen dioxide, sulfur dioxide, and PM2.5)]. Joint effect estimates were smaller than estimates calculated based on summing results from single-pollutant models, due to control for confounding. Compared with models without interactions, joint effect estimates from models including first-order pollutant interactions were similar for oxidant a

Development of dissipative elastic metamaterials based on the layered cantilever-in-mass structure for attenuating the broad spectrum vibrations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Jun; Zhou, Xiaoqin; Wang, Rongqi; Lin, Jieqiong

2018-05-01

In this paper, the layered cantilever-in-mass structures (LCIMs) will be theoretically investigated to reveal the effects of the layered structures on band gaps, which have great potential to bring in many useful material properties without much increasing the manufacturing difficulty by stacking the damped layers or other different component layers. Firstly, the negative effective mass model of LCIMs is derived based on the mass-in-mass model, which is applied to analyze the effective parameters of band gaps in terms of the geometrical features and material properties, the analytical results indicate the negative effective masses of LCIMs depend highly on the material parameter and thicknesses of each constituent layers. Then the LCIMs consist of the same thickness layers are further researched, which has found that their resonance frequency are independent on the layer thickness, and the numeric values of resonance frequencies are between the maximum and minimum local resonance frequency of their constituent layers. To validate the above analytical model, the three-dimensional model and the two-dimensional shell model of LCIMs are constructed in COMSOL Multiphysics. The obtained results show well agreement with the derived model in both the three-dimensional model and shell model. Finally, the dissipative LCIMs modeled by stacking the damped layers and metal layers are studied and discussed.

Partnership and empowerment program: a model for patient-centered, comprehensive, and cost-effective care.

PubMed

Brown, Corinne; Bornstein, Elizabeth; Wilcox, Catina

2012-02-01

The Partnership and Empowerment Program model offers a comprehensive, patient-centered, and cost-effective template for coordinating care for underinsured and uninsured patients with cancer. Attention to effective coordination, including use of internal and external resources, may result in decreased costs of care and improved patient compliance and health outcomes.

Three Methods of Estimating a Model of Group Effects: A Comparison with Reference to School Effect Studies.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Igra, Amnon

1980-01-01

Three methods of estimating a model of school effects are compared: ordinary least squares; an approach based on the analysis of covariance; and, a residualized input-output approach. Results are presented using a matrix algebra formulation, and advantages of the first two methods are considered. (Author/GK)

Naringin treatment induces neuroprotective effects in a mouse model of Parkinson's disease in vivo, but not enough to restore the lesioned dopaminergic system.

PubMed

Kim, Heung Deok; Jeong, Kyoung Hoon; Jung, Un Ju; Kim, Sang Ryong

2016-02-01

We recently reported that treatment with naringin, a major flavonoid found in grapefruit and citrus fruits, attenuated neurodegeneration in a rat model of Parkinson's disease (PD) in vivo. In order to investigate whether its effects are universally applied to a different model of PD and whether its treatment induces restorative effects on the lesioned nigrostriatal dopaminergic (DA) projection, we observed the effects of pre-treatment or post-treatment with naringin in a mouse model of PD. For neuroprotective effects, 6-hydroxydopamine (6-OHDA) was unilaterally injected into the striatum of mouse brains for a neurotoxin model of PD in the presence or absence of naringin by daily intraperitoneal injection. Our results showed that naringin protected the nigrostriatal DA projection from 6-OHDA-induced neurotoxicity. Moreover, similar to the effects in rat brains, this treatment induced the activation of mammalian target of rapamycin complex 1 (mTORC1), which is well known as an important survival factor for DA neurons, and inhibited microglial activation in the substantia nigra (SN) of mouse brains treated with 6-OHDA. However, there was no significant change of DA phenotypes in the SN and striatum post-treated with naringin compared with 6-OHDA-lesioned mice, despite the treatment being continued for 12 weeks. These results suggest that post-treatment with naringin alone may not be enough to restore the nigrostriatal DA projection in a mouse model of PD. However, our results apparently suggest that naringin is a beneficial natural product to prevent DA degeneration, which is involved in PD. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A meta-analysis of priming effects on impression formation supporting a general model of informational biases.

PubMed

DeCoster, Jamie; Claypool, Heather M

2004-01-01

Priming researchers have long investigated how providing information about traits in one context can influence the impressions people form of social targets in another. The literature has demonstrated that this can have 3 different effects: Sometimes primes become incorporated in the impression of the target (assimilation), sometimes they are used as standards of comparison (anchoring), and sometimes they cause people to consciously alter their judgments (correction). In this article, we present meta-analyses of these 3 effects. The mean effect size was significant in each case, such that assimilation resulted in impressions biased toward the primes, whereas anchoring and correction resulted in impressions biased away from the primes. Additionally, moderator analyses uncovered a number of variables that influence the strength of these effects, such as applicability, processing capacity, and the type of response measure. Based on these results, we propose a general model of how irrelevant information can bias judgments, detailing when and why assimilation and contrast effects result from default and corrective processes.

Aerosols from fires: an examination of the effects on ozone photochemistry in the Western United States.

PubMed

Jiang, Xiaoyan; Wiedinmyer, Christine; Carlton, Annmarie G

2012-11-06

This study presents a first attempt to investigate the roles of fire aerosols in ozone (O(3)) photochemistry using an online coupled meteorology-chemistry model, the Weather Research and Foresting model with Chemistry (WRF-Chem). Four 1-month WRF-Chem simulations for August 2007, with and without fire emissions, were carried out to assess the sensitivity of O(3) predictions to the emissions and subsequent radiative feedbacks associated with large-scale fires in the Western United States (U.S.). Results show that decreases in planetary boundary layer height (PBLH) resulting from the radiative effects of fire aerosols and increases in emissions of nitrogen oxides (NO(x)) and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) from the fires tend to increase modeled O(3) concentrations near the source. Reductions in downward shortwave radiation reaching the surface and surface temperature due to fire aerosols cause decreases in biogenic isoprene emissions and J(NO(2)) photolysis rates, resulting in reductions in O(3) concentrations by as much as 15%. Thus, the results presented in this study imply that considering the radiative effects of fire aerosols may reduce O(3) overestimation by traditional photochemical models that do not consider fire-induced changes in meteorology; implementation of coupled meteorology-chemistry models are required to simulate the atmospheric chemistry impacted by large-scale fires.

Study of Gas Flow Characteristics in Tight Porous Media with a Microscale Lattice Boltzmann Model

PubMed Central

Zhao, Jianlin; Yao, Jun; Zhang, Min; Zhang, Lei; Yang, Yongfei; Sun, Hai; An, Senyou; Li, Aifen

2016-01-01

To investigate the gas flow characteristics in tight porous media, a microscale lattice Boltzmann (LB) model with the regularization procedure is firstly adopted to simulate gas flow in three-dimensional (3D) digital rocks. A shale digital rock and a sandstone digital rock are reconstructed to study the effects of pressure, temperature and pore size on microscale gas flow. The simulation results show that because of the microscale effect in tight porous media, the apparent permeability is always higher than the intrinsic permeability, and with the decrease of pressure or pore size, or with the increase of temperature, the difference between apparent permeability and intrinsic permeability increases. In addition, the Knudsen numbers under different conditions are calculated and the results show that gas flow characteristics in the digital rocks under different Knudsen numbers are quite different. With the increase of Knudsen number, gas flow in the digital rocks becomes more uniform and the effect of heterogeneity of the porous media on gas flow decreases. Finally, two commonly used apparent permeability calculation models are evaluated by the simulation results and the Klinkenberg model shows better accuracy. In addition, a better proportionality factor in Klinkenberg model is proposed according to the simulation results. PMID:27587293

The Misspecification of the Covariance Structures in Multilevel Models for Single-Case Data: A Monte Carlo Simulation Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Moeyaert, Mariola; Ugille, Maaike; Ferron, John M.; Beretvas, S. Natasha; Van den Noortgate, Wim

2016-01-01

The impact of misspecifying covariance matrices at the second and third levels of the three-level model is evaluated. Results indicate that ignoring existing covariance has no effect on the treatment effect estimate. In addition, the between-case variance estimates are unbiased when covariance is either modeled or ignored. If the research interest…

Sedimentary Geothermal Feasibility Study: October 2016

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Augustine, Chad; Zerpa, Luis

The objective of this project is to analyze the feasibility of commercial geothermal projects using numerical reservoir simulation, considering a sedimentary reservoir with low permeability that requires productivity enhancement. A commercial thermal reservoir simulator (STARS, from Computer Modeling Group, CMG) is used in this work for numerical modeling. In the first stage of this project (FY14), a hypothetical numerical reservoir model was developed, and validated against an analytical solution. The following model parameters were considered to obtain an acceptable match between the numerical and analytical solutions: grid block size, time step and reservoir areal dimensions; the latter related to boundarymore » effects on the numerical solution. Systematic model runs showed that insufficient grid sizing generates numerical dispersion that causes the numerical model to underestimate the thermal breakthrough time compared to the analytic model. As grid sizing is decreased, the model results converge on a solution. Likewise, insufficient reservoir model area introduces boundary effects in the numerical solution that cause the model results to differ from the analytical solution.« less

Soft sensor modelling by time difference, recursive partial least squares and adaptive model updating

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fu, Y.; Yang, W.; Xu, O.; Zhou, L.; Wang, J.

2017-04-01

To investigate time-variant and nonlinear characteristics in industrial processes, a soft sensor modelling method based on time difference, moving-window recursive partial least square (PLS) and adaptive model updating is proposed. In this method, time difference values of input and output variables are used as training samples to construct the model, which can reduce the effects of the nonlinear characteristic on modelling accuracy and retain the advantages of recursive PLS algorithm. To solve the high updating frequency of the model, a confidence value is introduced, which can be updated adaptively according to the results of the model performance assessment. Once the confidence value is updated, the model can be updated. The proposed method has been used to predict the 4-carboxy-benz-aldehyde (CBA) content in the purified terephthalic acid (PTA) oxidation reaction process. The results show that the proposed soft sensor modelling method can reduce computation effectively, improve prediction accuracy by making use of process information and reflect the process characteristics accurately.

Modeling of flow stress size effect based on variation of dislocation substructure in micro-tension of pure nickel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Chuanjie; Liu, Huan; Zhang, Ying; Chen, Gang; Li, Yujie; Zhang, Peng

2017-12-01

Micro-forming is one promising technology for manufacturing micro metal parts. However, the traditional metal-forming theories fail to analyze the plastic deformation behavior in micro-scale due to the size effect arising from the part geometry scaling down from macro-scale to micro-scale. To reveal the mechanism of plastic deformation behavior size effect in micro-scale, the geometrical parameters and the induced variation of microstructure by them need to be integrated in the developed constitutive models considering the free surface effect. In this research, the variations of dislocation cell diameter with original grain size, strain and location (surface grain or inner grain) are derived according the previous research data. Then the overall flow stress of the micro specimen is determined by employing the surface layer model and the relationship between dislocation cell diameter and the flow stress. This new developed constitutive model considers the original grain size, geometrical dimension and strain simultaneously. The flow stresses in micro-tensile tests of thin sheets are compared with calculated results using the developed constitutive model. The calculated and experimental results match well. Thus the validity of the developed constitutive model is verified.

Multiscale Transient and Steady-State Study of the Influence of Microstructure Degradation and Chromium Oxide Poisoning on Solid Oxide Fuel Cell Cathode Performance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Guanchen; von Spakovsky, Michael R.; Shen, Fengyu; Lu, Kathy

2018-01-01

Oxygen reduction in a solid oxide fuel cell cathode involves a nonequilibrium process of coupled mass and heat diffusion and electrochemical and chemical reactions. These phenomena occur at multiple temporal and spatial scales, making the modeling, especially in the transient regime, very difficult. Nonetheless, multiscale models are needed to improve the understanding of oxygen reduction and guide cathode design. Of particular importance for long-term operation are microstructure degradation and chromium oxide poisoning both of which degrade cathode performance. Existing methods are phenomenological or empirical in nature and their application limited to the continuum realm with quantum effects not captured. In contrast, steepest-entropy-ascent quantum thermodynamics can be used to model nonequilibrium processes (even those far-from equilibrium) at all scales. The nonequilibrium relaxation is characterized by entropy generation, which can unify coupled phenomena into one framework to model transient and steady behavior. The results reveal the effects on performance of the different timescales of the varied phenomena involved and their coupling. Results are included here for the effects of chromium oxide concentrations on cathode output as is a parametric study of the effects of interconnect-three-phase-boundary length, oxygen mean free path, and adsorption site effectiveness. A qualitative comparison with experimental results is made.

Capturing ecology in modeling approaches applied to environmental risk assessment of endocrine active chemicals in fish.

PubMed

Mintram, Kate S; Brown, A Ross; Maynard, Samuel K; Thorbek, Pernille; Tyler, Charles R

2018-02-01

Endocrine active chemicals (EACs) are widespread in freshwater environments and both laboratory and field based studies have shown reproductive effects in fish at environmentally relevant exposures. Environmental risk assessment (ERA) seeks to protect wildlife populations and prospective assessments rely on extrapolation from individual-level effects established for laboratory fish species to populations of wild fish using arbitrary safety factors. Population susceptibility to chemical effects, however, depends on exposure risk, physiological susceptibility, and population resilience, each of which can differ widely between fish species. Population models have significant potential to address these shortfalls and to include individual variability relating to life-history traits, demographic and density-dependent vital rates, and behaviors which arise from inter-organism and organism-environment interactions. Confidence in population models has recently resulted in the EU Commission stating that results derived from reliable models may be considered when assessing the relevance of adverse effects of EACs at the population level. This review critically assesses the potential risks posed by EACs for fish populations, considers the ecological factors influencing these risks and explores the benefits and challenges of applying population modeling (including individual-based modeling) in ERA for EACs in fish. We conclude that population modeling offers a way forward for incorporating greater environmental relevance in assessing the risks of EACs for fishes and for identifying key risk factors through sensitivity analysis. Individual-based models (IBMs) allow for the incorporation of physiological and behavioral endpoints relevant to EAC exposure effects, thus capturing both direct and indirect population-level effects.

SSIC model: A multi-layer model for intervention of online rumors spreading

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tian, Ru-Ya; Zhang, Xue-Fu; Liu, Yi-Jun

2015-06-01

SIR model is a classical model to simulate rumor spreading, while the supernetwork is an effective tool for modeling complex systems. Based on the Opinion SuperNetwork involving Social Sub-network, Environmental Sub-network, Psychological Sub-network, and Viewpoint Sub-network, drawing from the modeling idea of SIR model, this paper designs super SIC model (SSIC model) and its evolution rules, and also analyzes intervention effects on public opinion of four elements of supernetwork, which are opinion agent, opinion environment, agent's psychology and viewpoint. Studies show that, the SSIC model based on supernetwork has effective intervention effects on rumor spreading. It is worth noting that (i) identifying rumor spreaders in Social Sub-network and isolating them can achieve desired intervention results, (ii) improving environmental information transparency so that the public knows as much information as possible to reduce the rumors is a feasible way to intervene, (iii) persuading wavering neutrals has better intervention effects than clarifying rumors already spread everywhere, so rumors should be intervened in properly in time by psychology counseling.

Supersonic Aftbody Closure Wind-Tunnel Testing, Data Analysis, and Computational Results

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Allen, Jerry; Martin, Grant; Kubiatko, Paul

1999-01-01

This paper reports on the model, test, and results from the Langley Supersonic Aftbody Closure wind tunnel test. This project is an experimental evaluation of the 1.5% Technology Concept Aircraft (TCA) aftbody closure model (Model 23) in the Langley Unitary Plan Wind Tunnel. The baseline TCA design is the result of a multidisciplinary, multipoint optimization process and was developed using linear design and analysis methods, supplemented with Euler and Navier-Stokes numerical methods. After a thorough design review, it was decided to use an upswept blade attached to the forebody as the mounting system. Structural concerns dictated that a wingtip support system would not be feasible. Only the aftbody part of the model is metric. The metric break was chosen to be at the fuselage station where prior aft-sting supported models had been truncated. Model 23 is thus a modified version of Model 20. The wing strongback, flap parts, and nacelles from Model 20 were used, whereas new aftbodies, a common forebody, and some new tails were fabricated. In summary, significant differences in longitudinal and direction stability and control characteristics between the ABF and ABB aftbody geometries were measured. Correcting the experimental data obtained for the TCA configuration with the flared aftbody to the representative of the baseline TCA closed aftbody will result in a significant reduction in longitudinal stability, a moderate reduction in stabilizer effectiveness and directional stability, and a moderate to significant reduction in rudder effectiveness. These reductions in the stability and control effectiveness levels of the baseline TCA closed aftbody are attributed to the reduction in carry-over area.

Competition for light between individual trees lowers reference canopy stomatal conductance: Results from a model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loranty, Michael M.; Mackay, D. Scott; Ewers, Brent E.; Traver, Elizabeth; Kruger, Eric L.

2010-12-01

We have used an ecosystem model, TREES (Terrestrial Regional Ecosystem Exchange Simulator), to test the hypothesis that competition for light limits reference canopy stomatal conductance (GSref; conductance at 1 kPa vapor pressure deficit) for individual tree crowns. Sap flux (JS) data was collected at an aspen-dominated unmanaged early successional site, and at a sugar maple dominated midsuccessional site managed for timber production. Using a Monte Carlo approach, JS scaled canopy transpiration (EC) estimates were used to parameterize two versions of the model for each tree individually; a control model treated trees as isolated individuals, and a modified version incorporated the shading effects of neighboring individuals on incident radiation. Agreement between simulated and observed EC was better for maple than for aspen using the control model. Accounting for canopy heterogeneity using a three-dimensional canopy representation had minimal effects on estimates of GSref or model performance for individual maples. At the Aspen site the modified model resulted in improved EC estimates, particularly for trees with lower GSref and more shading by neighboring individuals. Our results imply a link between photosynthetic capacity, as mediated by competitive light environment, and GSref. We conclude that accounting for the effects of canopy heterogeneity on incident radiation improves modeled estimates of canopy carbon and water fluxes, especially for shade intolerant species. Furthermore our results imply a link between ecosystem structure and function that may be exploited to elucidate the impacts of forest structural heterogeneity on ecosystem fluxes of carbon and water via LiDAR remote sensing.